Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/ High pressure will settle over the Mid-South today and will bring one more cool and dry day to the area. As a result, lows will be much warmer than the last two nights. In fact, some areas may see the lowest temperature occur around midnight with temperatures holding steady or slowly rising after midnight thanks to warm air advection. The dry weather will come to an end late Thursday Night as showers ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Plains moves into the area. The showers will develop out ahead of a secondary pseudo warm front that will act more as a moisture boundary as higher dewpoints will spread into the CWA behind it.
A 1027 mb high pressure area is located over the lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure will shift east-southeast toward Florida. Northeast Mississippi tends to be the coldest in this kind of pattern and temps there will get down to near freezing. Warmer southwest winds will bring temps to near the 70F mark on Thursday under mostly sunny skies.
There is a slight chance for a few lighting strikes this evening mainly over the higher terrain. Going into Thursday afternoon more energy will arrive as the trough moves more into the area. Given the warmer roads and higher sun angle, roads will likely be mainly slush cover, but some of the less traveled roads may be snow covered.
333 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the PAH forecast area into early Fri, as a strong area of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS moves eastward.
400 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Expect more pleasant conditions over the next two days as high pressure takes hold of the region. There is an outside shot that some places over the northeast flirt with freezing but it does not seem likely.
The rest of the week and the weekend will be cooler and unsettled with a chance for showers.
408 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Water vapor analysis indicates a broad Pacific trough moving over the west coast, amplified ridging centered over the front range of the Rockies, and Northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Clear skies and light winds continue this afternoon into the evening under the influence of upper level ridging. Overnight, a lee trough deepens over eastern Montana with low level southeasterly flow over our west. A combination of moist southeasterly winds and cooler northeast flow out of southern Manitoba will lead to stratus development over much of the central and northwest portions of the state. Thermal profiles suggest mostly a rain snow mix with a possibility for sleet in the southwest where a deeper warm nose and cold surface layer may lead to some hydrometeor melting and refreezing.
353 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. With a cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Upper troughing continues to slide atop the eastern seaboard while drier ridging builds westward atop the Rockies/Plains states this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies have allowed for earlier snowfall accumulation to melt for the most part, with some lingering snowpack across the higher peaks/ridgetops along the TN NC/VA borders. As for Thursday, high pressure to the south will slide eastward along the I10 corridor into west FL, thus promoting backed swly flow up the TN valley.
Light S-SE flow that is returning to the region this afternoon will allow temperatures to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than last night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures tomorrow night will also be much warmer than we have seen in a few days in the upper 50s and lower 60s due to these low stratus clouds.
High pressure over the plains should continue to move southeast today. This morning's surface analysis shows a region of high pressure situated over SE TX. Expecting high temperatures today to again rise into the low 70s, right around normal for this time of year.
Mostly clear skies will persist through the first half of the night as the high pressure ridge slides through. A deeper pool of moisture currently north of Lake Superior associated with strung out pva on the backside of the large trough over the northeast will advect into the area during the day. With weak caa and lesser sunshine then today, highs Thursday will struggle again for this time of year reaching the low 30s north to upper 30s south.
147 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected most of the week under upper level low pressure. Considering 12Z observed sounding at KPIT still remains favorable for snow, can only imagine that conditions are more favorable for snow in the ridges. Another cold front will swing through early Thursday morning with a reinforcing shot of cold air. This will invigorate snow showers for a majority of the lower elevations, but could lead to appreciable accumulations in the highest elevations of Tucker and Garrett Counties.
246 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 A quiet short term period through tomorrow with high pressure maintaining control across the Upper Midwest. This area of high pressure will continue sinking in from our north, and overnight lows should fall off efficiently under clear skies with light winds. Sunny skies again tomorrow but slightly cooler temperatures are expected under northerly flow.
This along with clear skies and a very dry airmass will provide ideal radiational cooling with temperatures expected to drop at or just below freezing for all areas except the panhandle coast.
A mid-level low pressure system will move into the region from the south and ride northward along the continental divide through Thursday. Lost Trail, Homestake and MacDonald passes, in addition to the higher elevation valleys such as Georgetown Lake and Butte, may well receive accumulating snows around 2-5 inches with higher amounts up to 7 inches possible. This low will continue to move northward along the divide Thursday. It's looking like Marias pass will be impacted by the low pressure's wrap-around moisture mid-morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon. A lot depends on the track of the low.
This cloud deck is actually keeping overnight temperatures generally north and east of Highway 2 quite a bit warmer than points south and west of that area. Even though a large upper-level low pressure trough is sweeping through most of the western states and the Rocky Mountain region, the lack of available moisture for our local area is keeping northeast Montana dry. By Saturday, subtle changes in the weather pattern and upper-level steering flow will allow warmer air and winds from the west to begin taking over, as the colder air influence recedes away toward the east.
Areas of fog and freezing fog will be noted across eastern sections of the Panhandles this morning. Clouds and cooler air north of the boundary expected to keep northeastern and eastern parts of the forecast area below 50 degrees today, with remaining sections in the lower-50s to mid-60s. Light rain will be possible across eastern sections tonight, with areas of freezing drizzle possible across northeast and north- central sections. Strong west winds aloft expected to mix to the surface, and to then become northwest as polar cold front arrives.
Latest iterations of mesoscale models bring the lower stratus mainly east of KISN and into KMOT this morning.
Primary trough aloft moves eastward into southern Utah this afternoon with southwest flow aloft across our counties. A bit warmer east of I-25 with downslope winds, though still on the cool side.
With high pressure to the Northeast, a moist Southeasterly flow will continue this afternoon.
Central Alabama continues to be under the influence of a strong upper ridge centered off the east coast of northern Florida. The upper ridge has kept the organized convective activity to the west and north of central Alabama this week. The ridge has also produced record breaking warm temperatures. The ridge will elongate and shift slightly southward tonight, which will allow a weak impulse to track north of Alabama. Shower and thunderstorm activity expected to increase across nw Alabama by 06z as a short wave trof passes to the north of Alabama, but probably staying north of the I-20 corridor, and only included VCSH for northern TAF sites.
It remains a overall quiet forecast, especially over the lower elevations today.
Warmer day expected with highs reaching the upper 30s northwest to the middle 40s in central MO. Tonight/Sat AM: Upper trough over the Intermountain West begins to make slow progress eastward. There may be a narrow corridor, north of the Missouri River (north of KC Metro) and along/south of Highway 36, where a zone of light freezing rain may occur. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the middle 50s over central MO, closest to the surface warm front. Some thunder is expected with the activity across the eastern half of the forecast area, with the highest reservoir of instability remaining just south of the area, keeping the threat of severe weather outside of the area.
Behind the wave this evening, the cold front pushes back southward into the region before again stalling. The other slated for Saturday night, with the focus across southeast Ohio, as the frontal boundary pivots northwestward as a warm front.
Freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the SJ Valley by early Saturday morning in the wake of the cold system.
608 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure over Maine early this morning will move east of Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
Also with temps below freezing. This will result in freezing rain mixing with snow for the event. but all locales will see some freezing precip before seeing snow.
943 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes early today. A weak weather system will approach New England this afternoon and evening followed by high pressure late tonight and Saturday.
322 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 Current upper level analysis has large positively tilted trof across the western CONUS with ridging along the East Coast. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across Mellette, Todd, and Tripp counties, with the higher amounts across Tripp County. Highs on Saturday will be a bit warmer, in the 20s to lower 30s.
A low pressure system over the area will result in chilly and locally breezy conditions. The best chance of precipitation will be over Lincoln and Mohave Counties where several inches of snow is possible in the higher terrain.
Upper level high pressure will produce subsidence today, boosting maximum temperatures a couple degrees above seasonal norms.
Winds will remain light, and with near saturation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, IFR/LIFR conditions expected to dominate terminal weather this forecast period. Some areas of northern and central Oklahoma may see at least a few hours of freezing fog. As upper trough passes over region on Saturday, dryline/pacific cold front will spread eastward over region and bring an end to rain chances.
Some enhanced low level moisture will work northwest toward the northern interior around the Atlantic ridge this afternoon which should be supportive of low shower chances. Otherwise little change to current forecast with highs in the lower 80s coastal to mid 80s interior. will see scattered cumulus in the KVRB-KSUA corridor along the coast with ESE/SE winds around the Atlc ridge. Ridge axis north of the waters will allow E/SE flow to continue over the waters around 10-15 knots.
On Saturday, a potent storm system in the Plains will drag a new cold front into the region.
900 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure over Maine early this morning will move east of Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
The associated cold front has moved into western portions of the forecast area, with winds picking up a bit and temperatures falling into the mid 20s. High pressure to nudge into the state, and quickly have WAA kicking back in with return flow setting up ahead of the next system into tonight. Could initially have some ice introduction and light snow, but overall soundings showing a quick loss of ice introduction as warmer air moves in aloft and a change to freezing rain expected.
Another chilly overnight into Saturday morning with frost on tap as valley temperatures drop near or just below the freezing mark.
A warm front attached to a low center developing over the southern Plains will form just to our north by 12Z Saturday, and as the low deepens and tracks to the northeast Saturday and Saturday night, widespread heavy rain and storms will develop across Middle Tennessee. Pattern-wise, this system resembles a classic spring-like low pressure system, and GFS model soundings do show moderate instability and moderate helicities Saturday, and higher helicities (300-400) Saturday evening as the low-level jet (>50 kt) increases in advance of the cold front.
Thin CAPE but adequate shear, freezing level around 11 kft, and a dry mid level could lead to gusty winds, and perhaps small hail. Behind the wave this evening, the cold front pushes back southward into the region before again stalling. The other slated for Saturday night, with the focus across southeast Ohio, as the frontal boundary pivots northwestward as a warm front.
Conversely, there is a rather deep full latitudinal middle and upper ridge across Central and Eastern North America, with the center of this deep and warm ridging located from Central Florida to the Central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land observations and analysis as of 800 am, detail the center of a strong high pressure system in the NW Atlantic near Nova Scotia. The next cold front is presently oriented from Wisconsin down to the East Texas Gulf Coast. Rest of the day and this evening, Aforementioned 1030-1035 mb surface ridging will remain in place across the Western Atlantic to North Carolina.
/issued 355 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ Early morning sfc analysis shows the stationary front extending from the lower Mississippi Valley through the ArkLaTex to ern/sern TX not too far from our nwrn zones. Being that the entire forecast area is now in the warm sector, another very warm and sticky morning is ongoing with temps mostly in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s/around 70. With a moist flow persisting through the column into the weekend with high pressure off the sern CONUS coast keeping a srly low- level flow in place while a swrly flow resides aloft, have maintained at least small POPs in the grids/zones through Saturday to account.
High pressure builds into the region this afternoon along with clearing sky. Main challenge for tonight will be min temps, but wind chills will warmer than wind chill advisory criteria.
Thus, continuing the highest PoPs there looks good. As the upper trough moves father east, across the western CONUS today and tonight, rain chances will decrease, from west to east. The upper trough axis finally moves into the Plains on Saturday, and that system brings a weak Pacific front with it.
Stuck with guidance for temps, above normal values in the lower mid 80s should hold on through today, near record breaking again.
With upslope flow and drying in mid levels some patchy freezing drizzle over southwest this evening will begin to make travel difficult. Have opted to remove any mention of freezing rain/freezing drizzle and went with an all snow forecast for Saturday.
The question will be if the low ceilings expand far enough west to impact KPVW and KLBB this morning. /issued 334 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ An upper level trough remains over the western continental U. Low level flow is likely to remained backed across the forecast area with the upper trough still to our west. This in turn will likely keep stratus across the eastern counties through the day with temperatures struggling into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon while on the Caprock more abundant insolation should help temperatures push well into the 50s and lower 60s. The western upper trough will begin to advance eastward this afternoon then accelerate eastward overnight. Increasing lift ahead of the trough may interact with low and mid level moisture across the southeastern counties again tonight with another chance for showers/thunder.
Late winter impacts continue this week as the forecast area remains on the eastern periphery on the upper ridge, keeping snow levels generally between 2000 and 3000 feet, and bringing in more moisture from the Northeast Pacific Ocean.
Made a TEMPO group until 14Z to reflect the timing of the low clouds. Areas of fog and freezing fog will be noted across eastern sections of the Panhandles this morning. Clouds and cooler air north of the boundary expected to keep northeastern and eastern parts of the forecast area below 50 degrees today, with remaining sections in the lower-50s to mid-60s. Light rain will be possible across eastern sections tonight, with areas of freezing drizzle possible across northeast and north- central sections. Strong west winds aloft expected to mix to the surface, and to then become northwest as polar cold front arrives.
434 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 A warm front is oriented from the Northeast to the Southwest generally along the Interstate 40 corridor.
For today, a cold front will sweep across the area from the northwest to the southeast bringing good chances for snow and gusty winds to much of northern Arizona.
550 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes early today. A weak weather system will approach New England this afternoon and evening followed by high pressure late tonight and Saturday.
/issued 434 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ A warm front is oriented from the Northeast to the Southwest generally along the Interstate 40 corridor.
1051 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A frontal boundary along southern Virginia this morning will begin to lift northward today as a warm front.
The warm front is not really going to move north into the region until late tonight around 09Z, but another pronounced mid-level disturbance will bring more showers with moderate to heavy rainfall northeast through southeast Missouri late this afternoon and into southern Illinois this evening. As the low-level jet perks back up to 30kts late in the evening, more widespread showers and some elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop over much of the area, especially as the warm front enters the picture toward daybreak.
443 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 Current upper level analysis has large positively tilted trof across the western CONUS with ridging along the East Coast. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across Mellette, Todd, and Tripp counties, with the higher amounts across Tripp County. Highs on Saturday will be a bit warmer, in the 20s to lower 30s.
733 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just south of Pennsylvania through Saturday, before lifting north across the commonwealth as a warm front Saturday night.
Rain coverage will diminish some from the west later this evening and overnight, but with the approach of the main upper level system Saturday morning, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will once again develop during the morning hours before ending during the afternoon as a Pacific cold front sweeps across the area. We believe the GFS is way overdone with the deepening surface cyclone given the shallow cold airmass remaining stubborn, and the much weaker solutions from most other models are preferred.
Surface obs reports some unknown precip, and forecast soundings show a loss of ice, but so far no freezing drizzle has been observed at the office so it must be either very spotty or very light. Regardless, continued to mention freezing drizzle in the forecast but at this point it does not appear to be accumulating and should have little if any impact. Later today high pressure will build in across the region, but forecast soundings show low level moisture atop the boundary layer so may have trouble breaking out of the stratus this morning.
The synoptic pattern will remain fairly constant from the past few days through today, as a large upper trough dominates the western and central parts of the country, while deep layer ridging stretches from our area into the western Atlantic. A stationary front currently resides from the lower Mississippi Valley region northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and best chances of rain will remain focused in these areas today. After some patchy fog early this morning, temperatures will rise into the lower-mid 80s again across inland regions, with upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.
Some areas of northern and central Oklahoma may see at least a few hours of freezing fog. As upper trough passes over region on Saturday, dryline/pacific cold front will spread eastward over region and bring an end to rain chances.
801 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just south of out Pennsylvania through Saturday, before lifting north across the commonwealth as a warm front Saturday night.
648 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes early today. A weak weather system will approach New England this afternoon and evening followed by high pressure late tonight and Saturday.
High clouds streaming over top of the low clouds was limiting stratus build down effects for dense fog formation over parts of central/south central Kansas, therefore expect widespread fog to remain mostly over western Kansas. Strong isentropic lift is expected to develop in the low levels for tonight, and with moist low level airmass remaining in place this should result in widespread drizzle. Surface temperatures could drop below freezing near the I-70 corridor for tonight and Saturday morning which would result in freezing drizzle, therefore we will hoist a winter weather advisory for a few counties in central Kansas. The upper trough that has been camping out over the southwestern states for several days will finally dislodge itself and move eastward across the central plains on Saturday.
355 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 The next in a succession of low pressure troughs was moving eastward across the Great Basin early this morning. Models shift the low pressure trough eastward over western Utah today, then over eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight. Lift associated with the approaching trough combined with steep lapse rates will result in widespread snowfall with localized thundersnow a possibility. Instability and lingering moisture in northwest flow in the wake of the trough should sustain snow showers along the divide Saturday morning and concur with holding onto WWA's until midday.
Tonight a large upper trough will move out of the western states and into the Central Plains. Strong winds on the southern periphery of this trough will mix into the Guadalupe Mountains, hence the upgrade to a High Wind Warning for that area. The trough moves east Saturday sending a Pacific front across Texas that will tap into very little Canadian air, so temps will not cool much, if any, behind the front. Behind the trough, zonal flow will keep us dry with temperatures near normal for this time of year.
The shrinking of the low cloud deck west prompted removal of Kit Carson county. This will result in freezing rain mixing with snow for the event. but all locales will see some freezing precip before seeing snow.