Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1106 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The steady build up of warm conditions across the region continues late this weekend, as a stout mid/upper ridge remains the dominant player influencing local weather. As the next few days progress, the ridge will actually continue to expand eastward, becoming a formidable character for most of the country's weather through early this upcoming week. The local effects from this ridge continuing its expansion will be continued quiet and above normal warmth. With the area also between two surface features, a ridge to the east and some upstream troughing, this will keep southerly flow at the surface, which will keep the low level atmosphere warm and stocked with at least some moisture, although dewpoints in the upper 60s isn't super oppressive.
Expansive high pressure ridging aloft will hold firm through Tuesday, with no changes in sensible weather from day to day. Over the course of the upcoming week, the upper ridge builds east over the entire CONUS. Weak low pressure areas, along with the remains of Mario and Laura, will move into southeast Texas and Louisiana through mid week but the effects of these systems should stay well off to the east of southwest Kansas. By late week, the upper ridge gets shunted southward somewhat as a strong upper system tracks along the US/Canadian border into the Great Lakes region.
Monday we will continue to be under the influence of the upper level ridge which will result in weak surface gradients. Tuesday will be the transition day as the upper ridge shifts east into the Plains and southwesterly flow aloft begins advecting subtropical moisture into the CWA. Widely scattered afternoon convection will initiate along and west of the Laramie Range and spread east into the high plains Tuesday evening. The ridge will be suppressed and shunted further to the east and south during the mid to late week period as a Pacific upper trough tracks east along the northern tier of the CONUS.
147 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build into the area this week.
150 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Broad upper ridging continues over the western/central CONUS, with high pressure centered over the Four Corners.
As storms move out of the James River valley and high pressure at the surface slides east, there may be a window for some fog development here as well later this morning. Rising heights in the mid to upper levels and high pressure at the surface will keep things dry until chances of thunderstorms return to the far northwest by late tonight.
The upper level high, which has been centered over the Four Corners region for the past few days, will expand northeast into the central Plains. A weak inverted trough near the Texas coast will shift northwest across central and south-central Texas.
Upper level ridge centered over the 4-corners has begun to bulge northeastward with a ridge axis extending across Kansas and Nebraska. Looking at temperatures for today progged thickness changes relative to yesterday suggest highs 1-3 degrees cooler most locations. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Laura indicates that the cyclone will move inland through central Louisiana. Large-scale subsidence from both the TC and the strengthening upper-level ridge over the Four Corners will essentially kill any potential for precipitation until the weekend arrives. By then, the ridge center will latitudinally elongate amidst westerly flow, which may result in the development of nocturnal, terrain-induced convection off the Raton Mesa and Sacramento Mountain range of New Mexico.
312 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 An upper level ridge will be centered over the Plains today and Tuesday. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s both days.
A weak mid-level trough over the Ohio Valley region will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. Daytime highs should tick up a degree or two each day, averaging in the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Storms formed first over the high terrain, but have outflow boundaries to help with their development.
Today Through Tuesday Night Upper level high pressure will continue dominate over the western region and into the central and northern Plains. Another upper level high continues to spin over the Atlantic and southeastern portions of the CONUS. Between these two features an upper trough extends from the northeast CONUS southward into the eastern MS Valley region. Over the next couple of days, the western high will expand over the northern Plains, as the trough de-amplifies northward and the eastern high flattens and pushes southeastward. Near the surface, the features to watch will be the high over the eastern CONUS and the two tropical systems over the Gulf. High temperatures through Tuesday will be in the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
High pressure building back through Arizona may limit thunderstorm coverage and push temperatures back up later this week, although there will still be some storms around. The upper high will remains near the 4 corners on Monday with PW values less than one inch east of Tucson and over 1.
229 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Broad upper ridging continues over the western/central CONUS, with high pressure centered over the Four Corners.
351 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Stationary trough across central South Dakota with warm front in the vicinity of the highway 14 corridor. This warm front will lead to mass convergence north of I-90, and could see a small uptick in very elevated (ceilings around 10-12K) convective activity through 15Z or so. Have sided with lows toward the warmer side of guidance.
933 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Quiet night of weather upcoming underneath flat ridging aloft. As this ridge shifts slowly east, we will begin to open the door to mid-high level moisture and instability. JKL After a dry, slightly cooler day, temperatures will warm back up tomorrow along with a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm up to near record tomorrow as the ridge begins to build back in. This will be short lived by a cold front moving through Monday afternoon. RH will drop into the lower teens tomorrow afternoon but that combined with the energy of the front will lead to dry thunderstorms mainly over our western CWA.
Expect the storms to fire over the higher terrain in the late afternoon.
252 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Message of the Day: Hot weather expected this week with highs in the low to mid 90s. An expansive upper ridge, occupying the western half of the CONUS, will expand eastward through the middle of the week.
322 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Dry weather will persist in the short term due to a lack of moisture overhead as broad ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Central CONUS. This should keep cloud cover scarce across the area, which in combination with upper ridging and 1000-850mb thicknesses in the 1425-1437 meter range during peak heating, will result in above normal temperatures climbing into the mid-90s or so area-wide for both today and Tuesday.
/issued 852 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/ Our region remains under the influence of a trough of low pressure aloft emanating from Deep S Tx into NE Ar.
206 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge -- centered invof the 4-Corners and extending eastward across the Rockies into the Central Plains -- will persist through mid-week. Isolated convection emanating from the Palmer Divide and/or Cheyenne Ridge cannot be entirely ruled out across western portions of Yuma/Kit Carson counties during the late afternoon and early evening hours each day, though, with such weak steering flow.
1115 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 The Ozarks remains underneath the inflection of a ridge to the west and a mean trough to the east.
Atlantic high pressure centered off the North Carolina Outer Banks will remain nearly stationary through Tuesday, keeping a brisk southeasterly wind in place. Atlantic high pressure will then weaken and shift southward over our waters by midweek, allowing for southeasterly winds and seas to gradually subside, with this feature pushing strengthening Laura west-northwest across the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will then shift south of our waters late this week, with south-southwesterly winds developing, accompanied by increasing chances for showers and strong thunderstorms with gusty winds moving east-northeastward across our local waters during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Expansive high pressure ridging aloft will hold firm through Tuesday, with no changes in sensible weather from day to day.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level low continues to spin along the SE Texas coast, eventually retrograding into Mexico later today and into tonight. Otherwise, look for the remainder of the region to remain dry with high temperatures climbing back into the lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon. Increasing clouds overnight will keep temperatures from dropping quite as much as we've seen in recent days with lows expected to range from the lower to mid 70s.
331 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Upper troughs triggers scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today.
While Tropical Storm Laura is still expected to pass safely to our southwest, much of the coastal waters will still realize tropical storm conditions given the rather impressive gradient produced by Laura (expected to be near 1000 mb) and high pressure near 1020 mb just west of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for much of the western portions of the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, including the Gulf waters surrounding the Dry Tortugas, the western Straits off of the Lower Keys and Dry Tortugas, and Hawk Channel off of the Lower Keys.
246 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Cooler, but still above normal temperatures continue this week with little to no chance of rain. The upper ridge to our west will begin to weaken this week and allow mid level heights to lower across our region. Models even develop an upper low overhead by midweek.
A cold front will move through on Tuesday, and could generate locally strong to severe thunderstorms.
Into the afternoon, convection is expected mainly over the high terrain of the mountains/plateau, yet did include afternoon prob30s for sct tsra amidst low VFR cu/stratocu and light winds at all sites. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 72 87 73 90 / 30 30 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 88 70 89 / 30 20 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 89 70 89 / 30 20 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 87 66 89 / 30 20 20 10 20.
231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge -- centered invof the 4-Corners and extending eastward across the Rockies into the Central Plains -- will persist through mid-week. Isolated convection emanating from the Palmer Divide and/or Cheyenne Ridge cannot be entirely ruled out across western portions of Yuma/Kit Carson counties during the late afternoon and early evening hours each day, though, with such weak steering flow.
353 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of the upper ridge over the west Atlantic today, keeping elevated PoPs in the forecast. The Atlantic upper ridge will flatten a bit on Tuesday, though a tongue of deep tropical moisture will remain across the forecast area.
Combining these temperatures with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield heat indices in the upper 90s, possibly reaching 100 in some places. The ridge remains dominant over the western US through mid-week, keeping warm and dry weather with plenty of sunshine for the area as we continue to see highs in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
638 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Stationary trough across central South Dakota with warm front in the vicinity of the highway 14 corridor. This warm front will lead to mass convergence north of I-90, and could see a small uptick in very elevated (ceilings around 10-12K) convective activity through 15Z or so. Have sided with lows toward the warmer side of guidance.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the low to middle 90s.
Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer Tuesday, as southerly flow returns.
Highs today are expected to top off in the mid 80s across north central WI, to the lower and middle 90s southwest f I- 94.
That shear is tilting the system such that the mid level circulation, attached to the flare up of convection seen on satellite imagery, is moving northeastward towards FL while the low level circulation is still tracking northwestward.
620 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Upper troughs triggers scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today.
Highs today will reach the lower 90s on northeast winds.
Very warm and humid weather expected today with heat indices in the low to mid 90s roughly south of highway 29. An approaching cold front is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms in northcentral Wisconsin by early afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms over the remainder of the region by evening.
1007 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Upper troughs triggers scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today.
Forecast Summary: Hot and mainly dry weather will remain in the forecast through mid week as upper level ridge expands over the region. Lowering heights late in the week will bring cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances through the weekend.
High pressure will build overhead and bring hotter temperatures most of this week. Our weather continues to be dominated by strong high pressure from the desert southwest through the front range of the Rockies. The first is the Mogollon Rim with initial buildups over the mountains, with both the orientation of the mountains and flow around the high favoring outflows pushing southwest and west. The second area will be areas southwest of Tucson (from about Nogales to about Sells) where an area of upper level diffluence at the inflection point of the upper level portion of the high will combine with better convective potential values for a good chance of storm development today and Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for the Lower and Middle The Florida Keys exist between two tropical storms this morning, Marco to our northwest and Laura to our southeast. Key West radar shows scattered showers, and at times isolated thunderstorms, tracking quickly westward through the low-level flow. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Upper Keys. Occasional squalls will accompany the accelerated flow, though the heavy rainfall potential is low given the highly transient nature of the convection. In addition, a coastal flood watch is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys given the persistent east to southeast flow and a tidal anomalies on the order of half a foot above predictions.
621 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Dry weather will persist in the short term due to a lack of moisture overhead as broad ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Central CONUS. This should keep cloud cover scarce across the area, which in combination with upper ridging and 1000-850mb thicknesses in the 1425-1437 meter range during peak heating, will result in above normal temperatures climbing into the mid-90s or so area-wide for both today and Tuesday.
Clockwise circulation around the upper high over the Four Corners was advecting areas of smoke and haze from western CONUS wildfires into the CWA. West to northwest flow aloft on the periphery of the stationary upper high centered over the Four Corners will maintain the hot, smoky and mainly dry conditions through Tuesday.
638 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
602 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 An upper level ridge will be centered over the Plains today and Tuesday. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s both days.
1005 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east for most of the upcoming week, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor imagery shows the mid to upper level trough over south-central Texas into northeast Mexico with the mid level circulation just north of Cotulla. A modest upper level jet streak was on the southeast side of the trough from Deep South Texas into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
Pressure gradient is expected to increase today as Tropical Storm Laura moves south of the Florida Keys and high pressure ridge remains to our north stretching from the western Atlantic to the Carolinas. Ridge axis remains north of the local waters with deep onshore flow in place.
Diurnal late day storms will be possible across the higher terrain. Remnants of the closed low offshore forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday which may support a continuing threat for isolated dry thunderstorms over the foothills and mountains, mainly along the Cascade/Sierra side of the valley.
The large upper level ridge over the desert southwest this past weekend will slide east into the central plains early this week. As mentioned above the upper level ridge is expected to be the prevailing feature at the start of the week.
/issued 246 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020/ Cooler, but still above normal temperatures continue this week with little to no chance of rain. The upper ridge to our west will begin to weaken this week and allow mid level heights to lower across our region. Models even develop an upper low overhead by midweek.
/Issued 353 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020/ The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of the upper ridge over the west Atlantic today, keeping elevated PoPs in the forecast. The Atlantic upper ridge will flatten a bit on Tuesday, though a tongue of deep tropical moisture will remain across the forecast area.
The main upper-level trough axis that bisects the Great Lakes will shift eastward through this afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will ensure after the passage of the aforementioned trough axis. Simultaneously, the tail-end of a cold front that extends from approximately a low pressure in Quebec southwest into Upstate New York will slowly sag southward into the PBZ CWA by late in the day. Convection will then likely wind down towards the evening, although some models are initiating further convection on 1) the upwind side of the leftover cold pool in Ohio and 2) the actual cold front as it moves southward across PA during the late evening.
These warm temperatures will cap convection today for most of the area, with the exception being the higher terrain. Tuesday will be a little cooler as a cold front brings north winds.
/Issued 417 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020/ Hot weather will continue the next couple days as an upper ridge axis remains just to our north.
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Message of the Day: Hot weather expected this week with highs in the low to mid 90s. An expansive upper ridge, occupying the western half of the CONUS, will expand eastward through the middle of the week.
456 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Broad upper ridging continues over the western/central CONUS, with high pressure centered over the Four Corners.
417 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Hot weather will continue the next couple days as an upper ridge axis remains just to our north.
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Latest water vapor imagery over the CONUS shows a ridge axis along the Rockies, a trough moving through the Ohio Valley and into the northeastern CONUS and the subtropical ridge building into the southeastern CONUS. The effects of the subtropical ridge and high cloudiness over the area have kept thunderstorms limited, with maybe a slight increase in thunderstorms possible during the late afternoon hours as we reach our peak heating. Overnight lows will be a couple of degrees warmer in the morning, given the increase in cloud cover, with overnight lows falling into the lower to mid 70s. The TN Valley will remain on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge on Tuesday, with southerly flow continuing to filter moisture across the area.
232 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 We remain in a quiet, typical late summer weather pattern, with high pressure over the central Plains in control of the sensible weather pattern. Can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm through this afternoon as a weak trof passes mainly north of the region. The central Plains ridge will build eastward Tuesday, and increasing H5 heights will allow temperatures to warm a degree or two from Monday's values. into the lower to middle 90s.
Adjusted temperatures to match current trends and overall high temperatures should be in the lower to mid 80s except only in the 70s higher elevations.
201 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build into the area this week. The Bermuda High directly to our west continues to ridge into the area, with little change to the overall southerly pattern aloft. Minimum temperatures will be slightly above average in the low to mid 70s. Highs will be cooler normal in the mid to upper 80s.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows near 70.
The highest wind gusts seen so far from these rain squalls was 53 mph at the Long Key C-MAN station just before 8am. Over land, the highest wind gust so far was at Boca Chica with a wind gust of 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Upper Keys. Occasional squalls will continue to move through an accelerated flow, though the heavy rainfall potential is low given the highly transient nature of the convection. In addition, a coastal flood watch is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys, given the persistent east to southeast flow and tidal anomalies that are already starting a half-foot above tide table predictions.
Upper ridging will slowly build in from the south, leading to warming temperatures aloft. However, cyclonic flow stemming from an upper low digging into Quebec, will keep heights from rising too quickly.
High pressure will build overhead and bring hotter temperatures most of this week. Looking at another hot day across the lower deserts, with many locations taking a run at record heat.
Sunny and hot conditions expected across eastern AR and west Tennessee with highs in the lower 90s along with a few mid 90s possible in NE AR. High temperatures are expected to climb into the low to middle 90s.
Portions of the North Platte River Valley will see the highest temperatures where Scottsbluff and Torrington are siting at 99F at this hour. Tuesday afternoon shows much of the same with afternoon convection mainly being focused along the high terrain. LCLs reach above the freezing level supporting the potential for strong downburst winds. Heading into Tuesday night, 500 mb heights begin to lower with the suppression of the upper level ridge overhead which will bring a pattern chance across the region heading into mid-to-late week.
Otherwise, any influence from Marco should continue to wane as that system weakens and drifts west northwest into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward. The Bermuda ridge is forecast to force the track of Laura far enough west to not directly impact our area.
A weak upper level trough was moving inland from the Texas coast this afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday) The area will remain under the influence of the broad ridge aloft that covers much of the southwest U. There is an inverted trough the begins to extend toward the area from southwest Texas tomorrow, but there looks to be no real effect on sensible weather in the area through tomorrow, except for perhaps an increase in cirrus tomorrow afternoon.
Adjusted temperatures to match current trends and overall high temperatures should be in the lower to mid 80s except only in the 70s higher elevations. Otherwise into the afternoon, convection is expected mainly over the high terrain of the mountains/plateau, yet did include afternoon vcts/prob30s amidst low VFR cu/stratocu and light winds at all sites.
A large upper level high over the Four Corners Region will slowly shift south through the week.
Afternoon highs across the San Joaquin Valley will remain a few degrees above normal under the influence of the desert southwest ridge, but will drop to near normal tomorrow as the ridge weakens.