Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
413 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 (Today and Tonight) A cold front is making rapid southward progress across the area early this morning, and has reached from Abilene to south of Robert Lee at 3 am. Highs today in the lower to mid 80s, with lows tonight dropping into the 50s with clear skies.
403 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A 500mb ridge over the region is forecast to keep a southeast wind across the area. A similar pattern is in place for tomorrow, with actually high PoPs for most of the area, as Nate looks to slightly weaken the ridge.
354 AM EDT Sat Oct 07 2017 A coastal front will retreat inland and across the Carolinas today, while high pressure will otherwise extend west from the west-central Atlantic to the Carolinas.
A dry cold front will swing through from the northwest this afternoon. The front will bring an increase in winds and cooler temperatures. Most of the cooling will occur in SE Oregon where temperatures (Baker, Burns) will be 10-15 degrees cooler. An upper trough in western Canada will move S-SE and will reach our area late tonight. Showers will accompany the trough, especially across the northern high terrain, late tonight through Sunday. A dry northerly flow aloft will follow the departing trough Sunday night.
335 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Scattered showers continue to move northeastward through central and northeast Missouri early this morning in warm sector ahead of prefrontal trof. This trof has moved into far western MO as of 07z with showers and storms along it. Models continue to indicate instability to diminish along trof as it approaches forecast area this morning. In the meantime, main cold front will move through later today, exiting forecast area by 00z Sunday. As winds diminish, some concern about fog development, but will depend on how much rain falls today and how moist the lower levels are. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
The associated cold front is still forecast to dampen out as it approaches our region and runs into the strong subtropical ridge over the southeastern U. Also, favorable right entrance jet stream dynamics and some of the higher res model data support the possibility of a precursor precip max, mainly over the Pennyrile region of western KY.
138 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A stalled front extending from Western New York, to near Altoona and Baltimore this evening will lift slowly to the north as a warm front late tonight bringing another late taste of summer-like weather for us on Saturday. A fast moving upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers to the region Saturday night and early Sunday.
1120 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Apart from some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms focused along the Continental Divide this afternoon, generally benign conditions have been experienced across the region as drier air works in behind a departing upper level trough. So overall a great start to the weekend with beautiful fall conditions! Our next Pacific trough will be diving into the northwestern CONUS throughout the day on Sunday, allowing the upper level flow to gradually shift to the southwest. Clouds and the chance for scattered showers will increase late Sunday afternoon and evening, generally for the higher elevations north of I-70.
331 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Surface analysis reveals a sub-1000mb low pressure system across the central Plains with an elongated warm front draped across the the Great Lakes region into the northeastern US. The low pressure over the central Plains will lift northeastward and weaken as the day progresses, but a cold front associated with the low will steadily move toward the region, along with ongoing precipitation and convection that fired off this morning. Our region will be well into the warm sector ahead of the low, and 850mb/700mb Theta-E plots show strong Theta-E advection across our region starting shortly after 12z this morning. As evening approaches, the interaction of the cold front with the moist, juicy atmosphere will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
223 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A front south of the region will lift north as a warm front today. A cold front will then approach the area on Sunday bringing the potential for another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A warm front moves north across the region today spreading clouds and possibly a few showers in the mountains. It will become mild south of the warm front in the afternoon with high temps reaching the lower to mid 70s over southern areas while places further north stay in the mid to upper 60s. By tonight the warm front passes north of the area allowing all areas to be in the warm sector and southerly low level flow. Early on the remnants/moisture associated with Nate will approach but quickly moves away to our south as a cold front sweeps offshore.
421 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Current observations show the cold front is moving into the Permian Basin with cooler temperatures in the 50s filtering south.
439 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Warm front lifts north across Northern New York and Vermont today. More rain showers are expected Sunday as a cold front crosses the area. Warm front lifts north across the area today and we will be under strong warm air advection through early Sunday morning. Maximum temperatures will generally be in the 70s across the area, possibly warmer if we clear out enough for some decent sunshine. Feel most of our area will have measurable precipitation as cold front crosses our forecast area west to east. Early afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, this again will depend on amount of clearing behind cold front when showers end.
652 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Surface analysis reveals a sub-1000mb low pressure system across the central Plains with an elongated warm front draped across the the Great Lakes region into the northeastern US. The low pressure over the central Plains will lift northeastward and weaken as the day progresses, but a cold front associated with the low will steadily move toward the region, along with ongoing precipitation and convection that fired off this morning. Our region will be well into the warm sector ahead of the low, and 850mb/700mb Theta-E plots show strong Theta-E advection across our region starting shortly after 12z this morning. As evening approaches, the interaction of the cold front with the moist, juicy atmosphere will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will also shift from the NW as a cold front passes overhead, with some gusts near 30 to 40 kt expected with the storms near CSM and HBR.
559 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 12Z TAF issuance A cold front continues to move south through the area this morning. /issued 421 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Current observations show the cold front is moving into the Permian Basin with cooler temperatures in the 50s filtering south.
533 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Dry and warm weather is expected Saturday before rain chances return with a cold front Sunday. Sunrise will bring a quick warm up as mixing increases in the warm sector ahead of tonight's cold front. A quick moving low pressure system will lift out of the Cornbelt, approaching the western Great Lakes by late this evening. The low will then move through the central Great Lakes before merging with the broader upper-level flow. As it does, it will sweep a cold front through the area overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Will keep strong gusts in the high terrain overnight into Sunday morning.
Rain late Saturday night and Sunday, as a cold front approaches.
Forecast confidence is medium to high: A potent low pressure system will move through Wisconsin today, bringing multiple rounds of showers with a few storms also possible. All locations should see showers this afternoon though as the trough axis swings through.
250 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Storm system over the central Plains will be moving northeast today, with a trailing cold front expected to cross the forecast area this afternoon.
1111 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A strong upper level trof will continue moving eastward over CO through the evening hours. The areas that should see the highest chances for severe storms will be Kiowa, Prowers, Bent, and Baca counties. Temps on Sat are expected to reach highs in the mid 70s to around 80 acrs the southeast plains, and mostly in the 60s in the high valley locations.
Otherwise, aforementioned front will slide quickly southeast through Kansas this evening to overnight as the main upper trough moves into the Great Plains. Sunday will be a transition day between upper waves moving across the region as the next large upper trough digs into the Intermountain West. This will allow the lee trough to deepen with associated south to southwest winds bringing mild temps.
An approaching cold front will stall to our west, while moisture from the tropical system in the gulf will begin to be pulled up into our area as it approaches the gulf coast and then makes landfall tonight.
400 AM PDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Above normal temperatures today, then cooler and windy Sunday with increased fire weather danger.
551 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A warm front will lift northward into New York State this morning, taking any lingering showers with it. A fast moving upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday.
525 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A warm front will lift northward into New York State this morning, taking any lingering showers with it. A fast moving upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday.
Most notable impact is the potential for some minor coastal flooding/overwash along the Nature Coast (mainly Citrus County northward) during the high tide cycles of Saturday and Sunday). Of particular concern are the high tide cycles Saturday evening and Sunday morning.
407 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have been steadily weakening over the past few hours as they move into a more stable airmass.
1111 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Upper level analysis shows a trough crossing the Rockies. Showers will move out of the CWA this evening as the trough crosses the northern plains. Warm air advection will continue Saturday under weak upper ridging, with highs reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s. A strong cold front will begin passing through the CWA in the afternoon ahead of a broad upper-level trough. Upper trough will deepen Sunday as it approaches the region, and chances for precipitation will begin to increase. Following the trough, dry southwesterly upper flow will set up over the region.
/issued 302 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017/ A sharp upper level trough currently over the Rockies will emerge onto the Plains this evening but not before creating some severe weather chances across West Texas. Most of the upper level divergence from this trough will be concentrated to the north of the region from the Texas Panhandle into southwestern Kansas. Low level convergence will rapidly increase as the cold front enters West Texas during the evening. In the meantime, low level theta-e will continue to increase out ahead of the cold front/dryline. Furthermore, deep layer shear will continue to increase with the approach of the upper level trough. Another trough will move into the inter-mountain west on Sunday.
The Pacific Northwest will be under a transitory upper level ridge today and tonight. Thus will see dry and warmer conditions across the area through tonight. This next system's cold front should be through the region by Tuesday afternoon. Thus will see varying coverages of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening with the highest coverages over the eastern mountain zones. Snow levels will fall Tuesday afternoon and evening, though they will remain above 4200 feet at the lowest Tuesday evening. Winds will increase to breezy across the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys, as well as the Gorge, behind the cold front.
Local dewpoints in the lower and mid teens will make it difficult for the precip to get to the ground before daylight. However, very low sfc dewpoints and deep dry air during the morning/early afternoon will cause any light precip that falls, to quickly cool the near sfc layer enough to support some wet snow flakes, especially at elevations AOA 1500 MSL as some weak to moderate low to mid level lift occurs beneath the thermally indirect, left exit region of a 140KT westerly upper level jet max, and INVOF the aforementioned inverted llvl trough across the SW part of the state. Using a snow/water ratio of 6-10:1 yields a little over one inch across the higher terrain near and just to the north and west of the I-99/I-80 corridors, with less than 0.
/issued 323 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ High pressure over the Mid South today will keep dry but continued seasonably cool conditions in place. Temperatures will be warmer than previous days but still anywhere between 5 and 10 degrees below average. This system will usher in a brief cool down again on Tuesday with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. Canadian high pressure will settle over the Mid South Tuesday night allowing for clear skies, calm winds, and another potentially frosty night with lows in the middle and upper 30s.
Conditions turn warmer later in the week, though that will come with chances for rain showers.
145 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Low pressure is forecast to slowly build over Central Florida, slowly moving to the northeast. As the low develops, it will bring instability to the area once again, bringing a chance of SHRA to South Florida, mainly north of Alligator Ally.
/issued 714 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018/ Winds have generally decreased below advisory levels this evening ahead of a cold front currently moving through the South Plains. As this low sinks southeastward across the South Plains a front will bring an abrupt northerly to easterly wind shift through the late afternoon and evening hours. One more seasonably mild day Tuesday will yield to an abrupt warming trend as a flattening upper ridge traverses the region downstream of more significant jet energy approaching the western CONUS.
In the upper levels there is a broad trough over the Central and Eastern U. An associated warm front will be over or near the region late tonight. The period begins with zonal flow aloft at the base of a large CONUS longwave trough. At the surface, the frontal boundary that crossed through the region yesterday has moved through Central Florida, but is expected to lift back northward as a warm front on Monday.
Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the upper 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. Aloft, weak ridging prevails over the region, between a deep layer anticyclone centered over the Caribbean basin and the polar westerlies.
333 AM PDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure over the region with rapidly warming temperatures, especially into Tuesday.
Ridging over the Rockies and torughing over the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue has the ridge getting flattened as it moves out into the plains on Wed. Look like there could be some pcpn type issues Wed night as temperatures warm aloft and the prob ice grids decrease, so not out of the question that a rain/snow and freezing rain/sleet mix could happen. A broad trough moves into the Rockies 12z Fri. This trough forms a closed 500 mb low over the corn belt 12z Sat which moves into the upper Great Lakes on 12z Sun and into the lower Great Lakes on Mon. Only problem could be that a high pressure system up near Hudson Bay could bring drier northeast low level flow to the area and cut into how far north the pcpn shield gets.
448 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Today won't be near as windy and warm as yesterday thanks to Yesterday's late evening cold front.
These should continue to dissipate as high pressure builds in over the region today and the first half of Tuesday, giving the region a much needed, albeit brief, break from our recent wet weather.
A weakening low pressure system was drifting away from the region with lingering showers persisting along the wa/or cascades in an upslope flow and over the blue/wallowa mountains areas. Clouds were also lessening in response to a ridge of high pressure building into the region. Sky and pops and weather were modified some along with the temperatures that are expected to fall into the 30s with some 20s over the higher elevations. High pressure aloft will build in behind it overnight and on Monday. This will provide dry conditions along with warmer temperatures. This high pressure ridge will persist through Monday night with fair weather and dry conditions.
119 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Radar is showing light precip across the area from midlevel clouds, but dry air in the low levels is preventing it from reaching the ground at the moment.
415 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure ridging southward from Canada will direct weakening low pressure south of the Ohio River Valley today. Another weakening upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday.
/issued 350 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018/ High pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with the old cold frontal boundary washing out over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Still could see a few sprinkles over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes, but no significant amounts of rainfall over the next 24 hours.
Diffuse cold front moving across the Red River into NETX at 4 am and should slowly sag southward throughout the day and early evening passing through the Metro area around 6-9 pm with a second push of cooler air Tuesday morning. NAM is more bullish for rain with higher QPF but CAMs are indicating far lower amounts and have trended with the higher pop but with very low QPF. Ridging will dominate with pleasant dry weather Tue- Thu.
350 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 The local area remains under broad upper level troughing that is encompassing over 2/3's of the country. Models show a sharpening of the trough in place Tuesday morning. A cold front will accompany this feature as it track east across the lower Mississippi Valley.
303 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Once the light rain/snow mix exits the area early this morning, high pressure advancing from Winnipeg to Little Rock will provide us with cool but dry weather with partly cloudy skies and a light north breeze through the short term.
554 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Satl imagery this morning revealing an upper ridge situated along the west coast with a broad trof over the cntrl/ern CONUS. Dry conditions and a warming trend is still on tap the next severals days in part to aforementioned wrn CONUS upper ridge building in.
329 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure builds across the region today. Another low pressure system will pass offshore Tuesday and Tuesday night, and could bring a few showers of rain of snow to the area.
630 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure builds across the region today. Another low pressure system will pass offshore Tuesday and Tuesday night, and could bring a few showers of rain of snow to the area.
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Expect VFR conditions to persist trough the period. Tonight Through Tuesday Northwest flow will continue over the area through Tuesday with an upper ridge over the western U. The upper ridge moves to the Rockies Tuesday. A few isolated areas in the north may go below freezing tonight, however decided not to go with another Freeze Warning at this time, and will let the evening shift ponder that. Highs will be warmer Monday and Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
305 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Surface analysis early this morning as an area of low pressure passing southeast along the NE/IA border. Snow was falling ahead of this low extended up across northeast IA into southwest WI. This low will continue pushing southeast with snow diminishing/exiting the area by mid-morning. High pressure build into the region tonight for partly cloudy skies with overnight lows dropping into the 20s. Warm air advection kick in Tuesday on the backside of the departing high and in advance of low pressure passing through southern Canada.
310 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Light precipitation chances return today with a trough of low pressure.
629 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure ridging southward from Canada will direct weakening low pressure south of the Ohio River Valley today. Another weakening upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday.
307 AM MDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure over southwestern South Dakota/northwestern Nebraska, with high pressure over northeastern Montana/northwestern North Dakota. Ridge is in place along the west coast. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible over the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills and the Bear Lodge Mts, with little or no accumulation expected elsewhere.
336 AM PDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring much warmer weather today with gusty northeast winds near the coastal foothills through early afternoon.
312 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 As one system is exiting this morning, another weak disturbance and surface cold front will push through the region today. Another chilly night is expected tonight, as skies clear out from the west and winds diminish as high pressure builds into the region.
The forecast will cut back on PoPs and QPF today, staying in the low to slight chance range this morning, with all mention of rain ending by late afternoon. The clouds and a light wind should keep lows above freezing tonight.
323 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure over the Mid South today will keep dry but continued seasonably cool conditions in place. Temperatures will be warmer than previous days but still anywhere between 5 and 10 degrees below average. This system will usher in a brief cool down again on Tuesday with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. Canadian high pressure will settle over the Mid South Tuesday night allowing for clear skies, calm winds, and another potentially frosty night with lows in the middle and upper 30s.
High pressure crosses mid week, with gradual warm up through late week. A change over to rain is forecast later this morning as precipitation in the lowlands exits. System pulls out Monday night with weak high pressure building in for midweek. It will remain below normal for temperatures as the mean longwave trof persists.
337 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 H5 Analysis from earlier this evening had a low amplitude trough of low pressure extending from northern Minnesota into the Texas panhandle. Within this trough, numerous upper level disturbances were noted over eastern South Dakota, western North Dakota, southern Colorado and Oklahoma. The frontal boundary will begin to lift to the northeast as a warm front later this afternoon, pushing into the western half of the forecast area. Expected cloud cover will hinder the warmup, especially in the northeastern forecast area, and trended temps toward the cooler MET guidance.
Models do show some isentropic upglide this morning mainly over the eastern half of South Texas, with a nice mid level theta-e ridge in the area either late this morning or during the afternoon.
233 AM MDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Synoptic Setup: forecast begins with the center of the coldest air over nunavut and a trough dropping south of it into Ontario and the upper and middle Mississippi valley. To the west, Hot air has begun to build over the Desert Southwest and ridge rides north of this out of California up into British Columbia. This has placed the the High Plains of Montana under northwest flow aloft. Farther west, a Pacific trough is spinning over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Tuesday: with northwest flow and ridge pressing in from the west, temperatures will rise today through Tuesday with highs above freezing for much of the area. the ridge itself will peak on Tuesday bringing Highs in the 40s.
Snow should be confined to the mtns with about 2-4 inches expected over the higher mtns before tapering off late. Otherwise a weak push of cooler air will sink down the plains overnight and bring some minor cooling to areas east of the mtns for Monday but still a mild day with some lingering snow showers over the mtns in the morning. Warmest temperatures of the season so far should arrive Tuesday and Weds as upper ridging builds over the region.