Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
853 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Weak cool front/trof axis has finally shifted south of our area early this evening with quite a contrast in air mass from north to south. Dew points dropping with cooler and drier air filtering in. High pressure will remain in control overnight.
1007 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 High pressure over the midwest will move across Ohio and Pennsylvania overnight and Thursday.
An upper level trough is spreading south across the region and additional storms are expected to develop from northeastern Kansas/southeastern Nebraska to the southeast into portions of central Missouri late tonight into early Thursday.
The GFS shows a weak cold front will slip southward out of southern kentucky, into northern Middle Tennessee during the daylight hours on Thursday, and be accompanied by isolated thunderstorms.
Thinking activity will continue to fester through the evening as the low- level jet ramps up, with a continued threat of marginally severe hail and damaging winds, along with locally heavy rain.
Other than a few puffy cumulus clouds this afternoon, skies have been sunny, thanks to high pressure situated over the cwa. Afternoon temperatures were in the lower to mid 70s along with northwest to west winds, occasionally gusting to around 30 mph. Tonight: High pressure will bring another pleasant night with clear skies, light to calm winds and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures. Thursday: We begin the month of June (and meteorological summer) with high pressure still in control. During the afternoon, the ridge slowly shifts off to the east. This will begin to increase the moisture in our far sw cwa on the return flow around the departing ridge. Temperatures should be several degrees warmer compared to today, with highs well into the 70s to near 80.
Building ridge and increasing capping should provide for a drying through through the afternoon.
Steering flow will be east-southeasterly tomorrow with mean high pressure indicated in the 925-700 mb layer just east of the Bahamas.
A fast moving jet streak was moving across the lower Ohio Valley providing some forcing along a weak convergence boundary over southwest Virginia to near the Kentucky/Tennessee state-line. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 88 63 88 / 20 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 82 62 85 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 84 60 86 / 20 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 80 56 82 / 40 10 10 10.
This would be the warmest day since May 16th at LBF when the high last reached 80 degrees.
Broad scale upper pattern features a eastern CONUS trof and a western ridge, with an upper disturbance undercutting the ridge. Latest model solutions are in fair agreement with drier conditions by Thursday night as a weak ridge/NVA move across the area. Models are in fair agreement with a potent upper low moving toward TX Sat and being draped across TX, oriented from SW to NE, by Sun.
However, there is some slight general agreement the better chances tonight will be over the western 1/3 of the area, so while we have precipitation chances everywhere, have the higher PoPs across areas west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.
High pressure over the Midwest this afternoon will slide to the southeast and provide a generally quiet night of weather tonight. A cold front was analyzed this afternoon roughly from Sandusky to Little Rock. As a result, a few showers or storms may pop up in the heat of the afternoon over far southern Kentucky, but high pressure over the Ohio Valley will keep the majority of the area dry.
Temperatures tomorrow in the lower 90s in many areas. Isolated mountain convection occuring with some cloud flashes but activity is anchored on the higher terrain. Do not expect much progress into the lower elevations from these storms this evening. Anvil debris tonight will combine with a warmer start to make tonight milder than previous nights. Still will see winds increase late at night bringing cooler temperatures with cyclonic flow aloft permitting a few showers.
With temperatures today recovering to the mid 60s-70s and some degree of mixing towards morning most areas should see minimums a bit warmer than this morning.
Chaotic wind flow from Titusville-Cape Canaveral northward spawned by intense late day convection will return to light-moderate (10-12KT) synoptic flow around the ridge axis by midnight. High pressure ridge will remain prominent over the western Atlantic with an axis extending to central Florida.
637 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will help keep the weather mostly quiet for the next 24 hours. Cyclonic flow around that persistent upper low we had for the past several days is continuing to push colder air into the region though, and this has kept temperatures on the somewhat cool side today. If it were just a bit cooler and winds a bit lighter I would be contemplating a frost advisory, and I have not gone as cold as the coldest guidance available to me. Tomorrow the upper level ridge axis shifts to over northern Minnesota, and expect warmer temperatures for Thursday than we have had today as the winds turn more westerly.
800 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front will sweep east and cross the region accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
Embedded within this trough is a MCV located over Srn NM north of El Paso, also slowly moving northeast. With the trough axis passing across the region on Thursday, and with deep moisture finally established, we should see scattered to widespread coverage of showers and t-storms. The presence of the trough and low-level jet should maintain some convection into Thursday night.
For areas farther inland, We're expecting RBG to fall into MVFR tonight with VFR conditions continuing in the Rogue Valley as the lower levels are too dry and unstable.
509 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary south and west of the forecast area, with low pressure along it across eastern CO. High pressure is centered over eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over much of the eastern US, with a ridge over the Rockies. Temps are in the low to mid 70s across much of the plains, with 60s over the Black Hills. Warming trend will continue over the next couple of days as ridge slowly shifts east into the plains.
Convective temperatures will remain in the lower 80s which we should easily achieve each day and that should trigger the storms. Temperatures not likely to get past the lower and middle 80s for highs the next several days due to the low convective temperatures.
Have continued trending temps aoa the warmer guidance thru Thurs. Best chances of showers and storms will be along and east of Mississippi River, depending on location of warm front, amount of instability and strength of low level jet. Otherwise, mild conditions to persist with lows in the low to mid 60s.
High Quiet period with high pressure gradually building in through Thursday.
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies tonight with slightly cooler temperatures continuing Thursday.
The region remains in a broad upper level trough Thursday with another short wave moving through.
819 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A zonal flow aloft will be over the region for the rest of the week, with some weak troughing associated with a stalled front.
With the ridge aloft moving off to our east, low and mid level moisture will begin to increase across our western counties, setting the stage for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening along and west of Interstate 25.
A few storms coming of the higher terrain of Mexico may make a run toward the Val Verde county Thursday evening, but confidence is low in the storms holding together before reaching the CWA.
Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the low to mid 70s along with humidity levels dropping into the 20s.
Offshore high pressure will dominate this weekend.
Under mostly clear skies and east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge extends across the Florida peninsula, with east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots except slightly higher on the Straits of Florida. A deep layered western Atlantic ridge will remain anchored across the southern half of the Sunshine State which maintain large scale mid and upper level subsidence.
removed for the mid Valley through the Rio Grande Plains but kept for the Lower Valley, with just enough morning moisture (up to 700 mb) to support isolated low-topped showers and perhaps a thunderstorm generated by the sea breeze.
1153 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Short term models all suggesting that the bulk of showers and storms will remain southwest of the forecast area overnight with focus closer to the low level convergence in northern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. /Tonight through Thursday/ Quiet weather and the continuation of pleasant conditions remains the name of the game through the evening with surface ridging moving over the area. Surface flow will turn more southerly, slowly pushing a fairly diffuse warm front into southwest/southern Iowa and in turn boost temps and dew points. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Some isolated showers and storms may be ongoing across the area by early Thursday evening, associated with a warm front lifting northeastward across the area.
A weak cold front will slip southward out of southern kentucky, into northern Middle Tennessee during the daylight hours on Thursday, and be accompanied by isolated thunderstorms.
The weakening Pacific trough over the western Great Basin will continue east through Utah and southwest Wyoming Thursday afternoon and evening.
For Thursday, the ridge axis will move slowly into Eastern Colorado with a weak flow aloft. Moisture will increase over the mountains with approaching trof and a better chance for mountain storms and possibly drifting towards the adjacent plains by late afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures will be similar to today's readings/ Showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and adjacent plains will slowly decrease, with the far northeastern plains remaining dry. As the upper trough moves into western Colorado overnight, a few showers may continue over the mountains and possibly over the plains due to weak QG lift and moisture associated with the trough. The upper trough will pass over in the morning with drier subsidence air behind it.
1040 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A large upper level low pressure system with several weak disturbances will bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon ending this evening.
A weak trough tracking just northeast of the forecast area Thursday may generate more clouds across northeast Wisconsin along with a light shower or two.
The convective activity on Thursday will gain uplift due to a trough moving in from the west over the next 18 hours. 75 inch to one inch by mid morning Thursday thanks to southerly winds increasing with this trough interaction pushing high pressure eastward.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Quiet weather and the continuation of pleasant conditions remains the name of the game through the evening with surface ridging moving over the area. Surface flow will turn more southerly, slowly pushing a fairly diffuse warm front into southwest/southern Iowa and in turn boost temps and dew points. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Some isolated showers and storms may be ongoing across the area by early Thursday evening, associated with a warm front lifting northeastward across the area.
/issued 213 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017/ An upper trough is centered just north of the Great Lakes area and another upper trough is beginning to move over the Pacific Northwest. The upper trough over the west coast moves further east on Thursday.
911 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 West/northwest winds will ease this evening with lighter wind regime taking hold for Thursday as high pressure settles across southern Wisconsin and the Upper Ohio River Valley. High Quiet period with high pressure gradually building in through Thursday.
Aloft - A low over Ontario Canada this afternoon troughs down to the Deep South while a ridge near 30 North Latitude/65 West Longitude extends across most of FL and the Gulf of Mexico. Atlantic high pressure ridges westward along 30 North Latitude to the central Gulf coast. The upper low tracks southeastward. with it/s trough settling toward the Gulf coast and pushing the upper ridge south and east. The low level flow continues southeast and south with a relaxed gradient allowing afternoon sea breezes to shift winds to onshore.
1008 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A weak cold front will slip south of the Ohio River tonight as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. The high will remain over the area into Thursday. A few isolated showers will continue generally near and south of the Ohio River through the first part of the overnight as a weak cold front continues to push through. Expect temperatures therefore to drop into the generally the lower 50s to upper 40s across the region. High pressure will remain across the region with a few fair weather cu developing later in the day.
A Pacific cold front will push through on Thursday. bringing slightly cooler temperatures.
933 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Short term models all suggesting that the bulk of showers and storms will remain southwest of the forecast area overnight with focus closer to the low level convergence in northern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. /Tonight through Thursday/ Quiet weather and the continuation of pleasant conditions remains the name of the game through the evening with surface ridging moving over the area. Surface flow will turn more southerly, slowly pushing a fairly diffuse warm front into southwest/southern Iowa and in turn boost temps and dew points. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Some isolated showers and storms may be ongoing across the area by early Thursday evening, associated with a warm front lifting northeastward across the area.
921 PM MST Wed May 31 2017 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across the lower deserts with a very slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms across far eastern Arizona.
Just some thin mid level clouds into eastern Montana and far northwest ND as the 700mb ridge axis nudges through. To the west lee side troughing across central Montana will begin to influence the wind across North Dakota tonight as it becomes southeast. An upper level ridge is forecast to build across the Northern Plains on Thursday by the 12 UTC global suites. Given dry soils, trended towards the warmer edge of the guidance envelope. However, the very top end of the envelope was not used as southeast winds ahead of low pressure across eastern Montana is not as supportive of reaching the highest threshold of guidance as west/southwest winds.
Seasonably cool, breezy conditions will persist through midweek with a slight chance of showers early this morning as an upper level trough moves inland. Temperatures throughout the region are running about 2 to 10 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday. Coastal areas generally will warm to the 60s this afternoon, and inland locations from the 70s to as warm as the low 80s in the southern Salinas Valley. This morning's trough will push east into the Great Basin overnight and into Thursday, bringing zonal flow over the region.
732 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A large upper level low pressure system with several weak disturbances will bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon ending this evening.
713 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 High pressure will build in later tonight and Thursday to provide mostly dry weather.
For now, current forecast is still OK showing showery, cooler weather for Thursday, but Pops may be increased in the early morning forecast package.
Most activity is on a weakening trend with the bulk of the showers and storms east of the I-35 corridor and will show the highest PoPs in this region. A few storms coming of the higher terrain of Mexico may make a run toward the Val Verde county Thursday evening, but confidence is low in the storms holding together before reaching the CWA.
903 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A zonal flow aloft will be over the region for the rest of the week, with some weak troughing associated with a stalled front.
1030 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary south and west of the forecast area, with low pressure along it across eastern CO. High pressure is centered over eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over much of the eastern US, with a ridge over the Rockies. Temps are in the low to mid 70s across much of the plains, with 60s over the Black Hills. Warming trend will continue over the next couple of days as ridge slowly shifts east into the plains.
To the west lee side troughing across central Montana will begin to influence the wind across North Dakota tonight as it becomes southeast. An upper level ridge is forecast to build across the Northern Plains on Thursday by the 12 UTC global suites. Given dry soils, trended towards the warmer edge of the guidance envelope. However, the very top end of the envelope was not used as southeast winds ahead of low pressure across eastern Montana is not as supportive of reaching the highest threshold of guidance as west/southwest winds.
The low levels appear to be well mixed to allow for anything lower than that tonight.
1033 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Cloud cover to persist across the region through the remainder of the day as a warm front pushes north across the region. Frontal boundary currently north of Interstate 20 with temperatures south of the front in the mid to upper 70s and north of the front in the lower to mid 60s. Otherwise, a lake wind advisory is in effect for much of the region as south winds increase behind warm front. /issued 720 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ For the 28/12Z TAF period, MVFR and occasional IFR cigs blanket all sites this morning as southerly flow increases with a warm front advancing north of I-20 as of this TAF issuance.
Under the effects of this ridging, very warm and stable conditions will continue, with record temperatures possible. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The strengthening ridge will also suppress any rain chances, despite the intense surface heating.
Issued by National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC 1032 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Broad high pressure will remain over the region through this weekend.
Upper trough over the region will support isolated showers through this afternoon, primarily over the higher terrain. Northerly flow could push isolated showers from the higher terrain into the Treasure and Western Magic Valleys this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today, but still 5-10 degrees below normal. Chance of snow showers again in the central Idaho Mountains and along the Idaho/Nevada border today as an upper low takes shape in Wyoming and moves south toward the Four Corners area. Mostly sunny, warmer, and less windy Saturday as Pacific upper ridge moves inland.
" A potent mid-level low pressure center is expected to bring accumulating snows to the northwest part of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday and Saturday night. At this time the higher elevations of Cimarron County Oklahoma look favored to receive a significant snowfall. Strong north winds tonight will bring freezing temperatures and the potential for light snow to mix in with the rain in the northwest.
SFC analysis currently showing warm front down across central AL/MS.
TFJ Slowly warming temperatures expected through the weekend as the upper trof that has lingered over the Rockies shifts east and Pacific ridge edges toward the California coast. Weak front associated with this low could pull showers across the northern zones tonight but overall dry conditions should limit qpf.
Weak high pressure ridging continues across the area. Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen over the FL peninsula and gradually move northward toward the southeast U. Weak high pressure ridging across the area today.
A warm front will lift out of the gulf this morning which could provide enough of a focus for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop. The upper low associated with the aforementioned warm front will drop out of Colorado into the four corners region as the day progresses and the area will begin to feel it's effects with winds becoming strong and gusty this afternoon. Forecast soundings corroborate this analysis well with 0-1 km shear values between 35 and 45 knots (some of the higher values i've seen in a long time), CAPE of 2500 to 3500 J/KG and LI's of -10.
/issued 415 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ Through this weekend: Latest surface analysis indicates a longwave trough sagging along the eastern CONUS with a cold front draped southward from upstate New York down to northern Alabama. Clockwise flow around the high provided light southeast flow to the CWA yesterday. High pressure will continue to build aloft today with the 00Z GFS generating a 590 dm high pressure cell directly overhead. Strong subsidence from the high will produce very warm, near record breaking maximum temperatures.
Mid/Upper ridge across the Fl peninsula with a southerly low level flow will produce temperatures well above normal today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 67 91 68 / 20 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 61 89 64 / 10 10 10 10.
1103 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017 A warm front currently situated across the southern half of the mid-state will continue to push northward over the next few hours. A warm front over central AL this morning is forecast to race northward today.
531 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Upper level analysis has weak cutoff low remaining over eastern Wyoming, with strong jet rounding the base of the main trof into the central Plains. Temps are mostly in the 30s, with some upper 20s over the higher Black Hills. Storm system will continue to spin over eastern WY today, then track southeast into northeast CO late this afternoon before getting swallowed up by stronger trof and low developing across the Great Basin and Four Corners area. With the sharp gradient in precip, temperatures will range widely from the mid 30s across parts of Northeast Wyoming, to the lower 50s across northwest South Dakota.
801 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 A break in the activity today under high pressure. Dry weather returns today under high pressure. Models are having a difficult time determining the position and timing of a warm front on Saturday and also the extent and strength of Eastern CONUS ridge. Zonal flow this evening will be replace by the building eastern ridge overnight. One thing the models do somewhat agree on, most of the precipitation tonight and Saturday will be over the northern half of the region, north of the surface warm front.
/issued 1033 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ Cloud cover to persist across the region through the remainder of the day as a warm front pushes north across the region. Frontal boundary currently north of Interstate 20 with temperatures south of the front in the mid to upper 70s and north of the front in the lower to mid 60s. Otherwise, a lake wind advisory is in effect for much of the region as south winds increase behind warm front. /issued 720 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ For the 28/12Z TAF period, MVFR and occasional IFR cigs blanket all sites this morning as southerly flow increases with a warm front advancing north of I-20 as of this TAF issuance.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located just east of the Carolina coastline today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be centered just east of the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
1003 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will move quickly east of the region today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
1026 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Warm front lifts through late today into tonight.