Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afternoon temperature coming in a few degrees warmer than yesterday with fairly breezy conditions across the region. Thursday, an upper trough will swing rotate through the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains. Will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes and a Wind Advisory will likely be needed for surrounding areas. Upper forcing associated with the trough will remain well to the north however we could get enough weak instability for afternoon/evening elevated showers and thunderstorms (with dry lightning possible!), particularly across the Lower Trans Pecos and perhaps the Big Bend region where higher moisture (40s dewpoints) will reside.
An upper level trough is moving across the western U. Highs will warm up into the lower and middle 70s.
A large upper level trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. The air mass over the region is cooler, thus overnight low temps will be much cooler than this morning.
/Issued 355 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/ Fire weather will be the main concern in the short term, followed by thunder/severe potential this weekend, as the upper pattern over the CONUS undergoes transition from a blocking regime to more of an active/progressive one. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over eastern CO/western KS later today, and the gradient between this feature and the high pressure over the southeast CONUS will tighten considerably over the region. To the south of the low, a Pacific front will move across eastern OK and western AR by late afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to develop tonight mainly in the warm advection regime ahead of the upper system and north of the surface warm front, which is progged to stretch along or just north of the KS/MO borders.
Also, updated our forecast low tonight as guidance coming in warmer than forecast and current temps in the 60s still across much of the lower valleys. With persistent cloud cover, thinking the lows will stay quite mild so nudged towards warmer guidance.
401 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Currently, a large upper level low/trough was centered just off the western Oregon coast. The southwestern 1/3 of the state has had cirrus cloud cover in advance of the Wyoming low pressure system. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of rain and snow, possibly mixed with some sleet or freezing rain. The greatest synoptic forcing remains south of ND, with threats of freezing rain and heavy snow in eastern Wyoming and South Dakota. Cooler today, with highs ranging from the mid and upper 20s northwest through the James Valley. to the lower and middle 30s southwest. On Friday as the cutoff low traverses the central plains towards Iowa, southwestern and south central counties along the South Dakota border will have chances of light snow, possibly mixed with rain or freezing drizzle.
An upper level ridge will continue to move across the central plains for this evening into tonight. A mild 850 mb airmass (12-15C) along with stronger 850 mb winds should keep the area mixed enough that lows will stay mild tonight in the low to mid 40s. A large trough located off the Pacific coast will lead to warmer and windy conditions again on Thursday. As the low moves eastward through Thursday night we could see shifting of the winds which will be important to monitor should any fires develop Thursday afternoon.
439 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A weak cold front will move east today, allowing high pressure to build from the northwest.
Current upper analysis shows a ridge over the forecast area with a deepening upper trough over the west coast. The upper ridge will begin to be shunted off to the east tonight as the upper trough moves farther onshore over the west coast. WAA aloft may produce some very light rain or freezing rain over parts of northeastern Wyoming later tonight.
This along with clear skies and a very dry airmass will provide ideal radiational cooling with temperatures expected to drop at or just below freezing for all areas except the panhandle coast. Although some increase in clouds is expected, dry weather is expected to continue with highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
A deep upper-level trough covers much of the eastern third of the country with its axis extending from the Canadian Maritimes southwestward through the Bahamas. This trough is forecast to gradually weaken and lift northeast through Friday. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf and Florida peninsula this morning will build slowly eastward into the Atlantic behind the departing trough. No freezing temperatures are expected tonight. The airmass will continue to modify on Friday with temperatures climbing back to near normal over the interior, but remaining cooler along the coast with an afternoon sea breeze.
A trough of low pressure will continue moving across the region tonight and early Thursday bringing gusty winds through this evening.
High pressure residing over the area early this morning has allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s. That coupled with height rises will help temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s. Tonight into Monday the pressure gradient will tighten across the area in between the departing high pressure ridge and out ahead of a cold front moving into the central Plains. The strong WAA coupled with upper level ridging building into the area in response to a upper level trough digging into the central Rockies will allow temperatures to near record highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
250 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2017 Strong ridge of high pressure will shift to the east today with ridge axis nudging up against the Continental Divide by this evening.
1130 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017 A Northwest wind will continue today into tonight in the cyclonic flow behind the trof over the eastern U. High pressure over the central plains will move southeast overnight and Sunday and will be centered over central Arkansas by midday Sunday. With a very dry air mass in place, have followed the trend of going a bit lower than guidance with the low temperatures tonight and a bit higher on Monday. Very little cloud cover except for some cirrus moving over the ridge to the west. Mdls are in fairly good agreement with the next upper trof and associated cdfnt impacting the area on Wed into Thurs.
Sharp upper level ridge axis across the southern plateau will shift east and gradually flatten later today and tonight - passing overhead our area near daybreak Monday. But the trough looks like it will remain just west of the Texas-New Mexico line, so flow will remain south to southwest, backing some late in the day. Monday will be a high-end breezy or perhaps low-end windy day and very warm - close to 20 degrees warmer than normal - with deep enough mixing to drop dewpoints and surface humidity.
Some high clouds were starting to spread into the region as of mid afternoon, as return flow begins on the back side of departing high pressure. A warm front in the eastern Dakotas will move quickly across the region tonight, as an area of low pressure moves across south central Canada. After the passage of a warm front, we will see a trailing cold front drop quickly across the region on Sunday. Given the degree of warming progged by most of the models in the low levels, some parts of our southern CWA where most/all of the early season snow cover has since melted, will likely approach/exceed record highs.
Later this afternoon, however, will see return flow winds set up across the CWA as a trough approaches from the west. 925 MB temperatures rise into the teens, near 20 Celsius and combined with a westerly mixing wind immediately behind the trough Monday afternoon, expect surface temperatures to rise into the 60s and 70s, which is 25 to 35 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
1007 PM MST Sat Nov 25 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. Upper level ridge builds across the area tonight and Sunday. Warm front lifts through western South Dakota Sunday afternoon with highs around 10F warmer than today. Splitting upper trof breaks down ridge Sunday night/Monday, with cold front dropping through northern plains. 3-5mb/3h pressure rises and steep low level lapse rates will result in a period of 25-35mph sustained winds behind the cold front.
327 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure was located over NW Texas early this morning and a weak boundary was draped across SE TX. Clear skies expected again tonight and Monday as high pressure is centered over the state. The high moves east late Monday and a south wind will develop.
The next Pacific system's warm front continues to lift north across the Interior Northwest. Snow levels will be relatively high overnight into Sunday behind the warm front.
Low-level moisture will be slow to return despite the southerly flow, and the lower relative humidity values combined with the gusty winds and dry fuels will elevate fire weather concerns through the day. Far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will likely see relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent with increasing relative humidity further west over central Oklahoma where the higher winds speeds will reside.
/Issued 335 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/ Northeasterly winds gradually spread across North Texas today behind a weak cold front.
/ISSUED 950 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/ A weak (cooler) boundary hung up across central Texas is forecast to slowly meander down across southeastern Texas through the early Sunday morning hours. Very subtle cooling will also occur in this boundary's wake and this will regulate warmth to the lower to middle 70s tomorrow under mostly sunny skies and northeast breezes.
Expect more record temperatures Sunday and Monday under strong high pressure aloft.
As this occurs, the lower level flow will become west-southwest by this afternoon, and allow the warmer airmass to our west-southwest to begin to advect over the region.
1242 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 Cooler today. High pressure drifts through with milder temperatures through the work week. Deep northwesterly flow aloft continues through Sunday night/early Monday morning before upper level ridging takes over, so expect coolest temperatures to occur during the pre-dawn hours of Monday. Surface winds turn more southwesterly and eventually southerly through the remainder of the period with high pressure sliding from the south to the southeast resulting in a warmer than normal period for the entire CWA.
248 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will retreat east of the area this morning as our next storm system moves toward the area tonight into Monday, resulting in unseasonably mild air moving into Montana today. A fast-moving cold front will move through the region, producing some rain and mountain snow over the Rocky Mountain Front and across Southwest MT, while returning temperatures back to more normal November readings for much of the coming week. Upper-level ridging retreats east quickly by this afternoon, resulting in an increasing southwesterly jet stream aloft. However, the primary widespread wind threat will be along and behind cold frontal passage across the region tonight into Monday. This cold front and warm Pacific jet will bring a decent amount of moisture into southwest Montana tonight through early Monday afternoon.
1221 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure builds back in from the west Sunday and Monday.
344 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 A shallow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west today. A cold front will drop south through the region tonight.
An upper ridge over the Rockies will provide the northwest flow. The high then moves east of the area Sunday night and surface winds will switch to the southwest by Monday.
1252 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure will keep dry conditions across the region into mid week. High pressure will build across the region through the period. Forecast temperatures are on the cooler side of guidance.
208 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 Daytime highs today will be warmer than yesterday and Monday looks to be even warmer as new record highs could be realized.
Its "ridge-city" Monday across the Central Plains. The first of a couple of cold fronts will pass through the area Monday night.
Sunday will be even warmer than today with highs from the mid 50s in southwestern Minnesota to the mid 60s in Gregory County. With a strong inversion near the crest of the Buffalo Ridge, expect stronger winds after midnight with gusts around 30 mph between midnight and dawn. Well ahead of the front, a very strong inversion may limit mixing below 925 mb so have forecast highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Warmer temperatures will be returning to western Kansas today based on the 24 hour temperature trends in the 900mb to 850mb level. Given the 900mb and 850mb forecast temperatures at 00z Monday the highs today ranging from 70 to 75 still look on track.
428 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 A cold front has moved through the region overnight. Mostly cloudy skies are expected across the northwest with partly to mostly sunny skies through Central PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
The latest short term models are in good agreement bringing a reinforcing dry cold front across South Florida today. Towards the end of the week, the models show another cold front moving towards South Florida. A quiet pattern is expected through much of the forecast period for the Atlantic and Gulf waters as high pressure remains in place over the area. A reinforcing cold front will move across the area today which will help keep a northerly wind flow in place through the beginning of the week.
124 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 Cooler today. High pressure drifts through with milder temperatures through the work week.
Another dry day in store for the area as high pressure begins to build across the area. Temperatures will be a touch cooler with highs generally in the 60s. Clear tonight with lows once again in the low to mid 30s.
Some high clouds to our west, apparent in satellite imagery, will continue to thin as they try to work into the region today as upper ridging over the intermountain west works eastward. Warm advection looks to increase markedly tonight with southerly flow increasing ahead of a cold front that will begin to approach the high Plains by Monday morning.
Some thin cirrus may move over tonight, with temps down into the lower 30s, with a chance of some Frost in the area. Another beautiful day expected Sunday with highs even a little warmer than today in the lower to mid 60s. A strong cold front moves into the forecast area Monday night, with winds switching to the northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
/issued 821 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/ Wk backdoor cold front bringing a few high clouds to the region, with skies likely becmg skc by daybreak. Weak back-door cold front making its way swd as well, and will be reinforced/pushed swd by another disturbance later tonight. Upper ridge to be squeezed ewd in response to a strong w coast trof as we move into next work week.
The cold front is now nearing the Eastern Seaboard as an upper level trough passes across the Northeastern U. Drier and cooler air is moving in behind the front with PW values down into the 0. Where there is some weak mixing, temperatures are in the 40s with sheltered valley locations in the low to mid 30s. The cold air advection is not overly impressive and think the ample supply of insolation will be enough to favor the higher side of guidance with most locations topping out in the 50s.
1149 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017 Warm front passing through western counties increasing winds and temperatures. Warm front will continue eastward through the morning with a cold front overtaking from the north after sunrise. Surface winds on the backside of the trough will shift to the southwest and west, bringing some warm air advection back into the area. Think there should still be enough daytime heating to get close to the freezing mark, but the north will still see much less of a rise than the southwestern counties, which should get into the mid 40s with some sunshine.
But confidence in to what extent low clouds form/make it into the area is low, so only made a minor adjustment to the low temperature forecast to account for the possible clouds.
/issued 155 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/ Upper ridge centered over Baja extends into the region while a broad trough remains over the Eastern US. This ridge will get flattened out by an upper trough moving ashore on Monday and quickly moving east crossing the 4 Corners region overnight.
High pressure will build in behind the boundary today. High pressure will begin to shift eastward tomorrow, and todays w/nw winds will shift to the east tomorrow.
330 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 Cooler high pressure will continue to move into the region today.
1234 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 A dry cold front will cross the region overnight.
332 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 Upper ridging is over the southwest CONUS and an upper trough is over the eastern CONUS. An upper trough off the west coast will move over the Intermountain West on Monday with south to southwest surface winds across the area.
The additional warming from our downsloping winds, in combination with the 850mb thermal ridge, will help to push our daytime highs into the 80s.
A reinforcing area of high pressure will begin building into the region today in the wake of the front, though this airmass is not all that much cooler and will keep temperatures near normal to start the week.
331 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 A cold front will shift through the area this morning followed by dry high pressure into the middle of the week.
316 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 Surface analysis shows high pressure located over northeastern Oklahoma early this morning. This high will continue to move south and east through the day today. Mostly clear skies will aid in diurnal cooling and lows in the low 40s are expected across the area. Monday is still looking like near or record high temperatures with readings in the low to mid 70s expected. The pressure gradient increases during the day on Monday as low pressure deepens in the western high Plains as the upper level trough moves east into the Rockies.
327 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure will support dry weather and moderating temperature through mid week. The high temperature prognosis for southern zones was modified slightly using National Blend guidance.
952 PM MST Sat Nov 25 2017 High pressure will persist over the next 36 hours bringing mostly clear conditions to eastern Utah and western Colorado with the exception of some high cirrus. Satellite indicates mid to upper level moisture moving onshore clockwise through the high pressure flow, but deeper moisture will not arrive until the start of the work week. Southwesterly flow will increase Sunday night as a strong trough moving onshore the west coast moves inland. Monday morning will start out breezy and warm as strong southwest flow reigns ahead of an approaching cold front. Forecast models have been going back and forth on bringing either an open wave or closed low across the Four Corners, but in either case this will be a fairly strong weather system with a -20C core at 500mb.
231 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the Rockies and a trough across the ern U. Sunday night, 850 mb temps around -10C over ern Lake Superior will climb as subsidence and sfc ridging move into the area. Monday, srly low level flow WAA increases between the retreating ridge and a trough moving into wrn MN. Although mixing depth will be limited, expect low level moisture may thin enough to allow temps to climb into the low to mid 40s, on the higher end of guidance.
225 AM MST Sun Nov 26 2017 An upper level ridge building over the region, combined with a warm front lifting northward across the area today will lead to high temperatures of 20-25F degrees warmer than the average for this time of year. A splitting upper trough will affect the forecast area on Monday, with a cold front dropping southward across the northern plains. 3-5mb/3h pressure rises and steep low level lapse rates will result in a period of 25-35mph sustained winds behind the cold front.
244 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 /Today and Tonight/ More quiet weather will occur today and tonight as an upper level ridge continues to exert its influence across the region. Yesterday's weak front did not completely scour out the low level moisture, and the return of southerly winds will aid in transporting higher dewpoints across mainly the central and western counties of North and Central Texas. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees in the central and western counties, but fall a little further into the lower 40s in our eastern counties.
Either way, they will stay on the lower side again.
Other than a few shreds of cirrus skirting through, subsidence will reign supreme underneath surface ridging spanning from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. This cool ridging will keep high temperatures in the low- mid 50s this afternoon. High pressure remaining overhead tonight will promote a favorable setup for radiational cooling. However, the main ridge axis shifting slightly southeast along the spine of the Appalachians will allow for some warmer air to advect in aloft and likely result in a subsequent ridge/valley temperature split. This should keep ridges in the low-mid 30s with valleys cooling into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. Warm air advection will continue Monday as high pressure shifts farther east and heights increase aloft on the eastern flank of mid-level ridging.
246 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 /Today and Tonight/ More quiet weather will occur today and tonight as an upper level ridge continues to exert its influence across the region. Yesterday's weak front did not completely scour out the low level moisture, and the return of southerly winds will aid in transporting higher dewpoints across mainly the central and western counties of North and Central Texas. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees in the central and western counties, but fall a little further into the lower 40s in our eastern counties.
High clouds streaming into the area today ahead of trough approaching the West Coast. There's still some slight timing differences between model solutions but associated cold front will move through the area during the day, reaching the Sierra Nevada range by the afternoon to evening hours. However, increasing Sly pressure gradients could result in terrain forcing/orographics over Shasta Co where the high resolution REFs indicate local heavier rain bands from around 1-4 pm LT. Uncertainty remains on how fast snow levels will fall and how much precipitation will occur Sunday night into Monday morning once the cold front passes through.
That combined with warmer temperatures from this afternoon and some high clouds will keep temperatures from getting as low tonight compared to the past two mornings. A cold front extends from the Canadian Maritime Provinces to Pennsylvania to northern Mississippi and Alabama into northeast Texas. At upper levels, a longwave trough continues over the eastern quarter of the country. Cold front really losing definition as it moves into the area, other than winds getting reinforced from the north. Very little variance in max temperature forecast for Sunday and Monday, but will trend toward cooler min temperature forecasts where there is variance.
326 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 Ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will provide mild and dry weather across central Illinois today. resulting in afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. As the high begins to shift east of the region, an increasing S/SW boundary layer flow will keep temperatures warmer tonight than in previous nights. Gusty S/SW winds will bring even warmer air into the region on Monday. GFS/NAM continue to show impressive thermal ridge axis with 15-20C 850mb temps from Iowa southwestward to New Mexico by Monday afternoon. Given sunshine and southerly flow, afternoon high temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 60s.