Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
338 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND BEGIN TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO CARRY A TROF ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL PRODUCE A WIDE VARIETY OF LOW/MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM FED THROUGH BUFKIT SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW NEVER REALLY FULLY SATURATES THE COLUMN OR STICKS AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THIS CWA. IT WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING LIGHT SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. WITH FREEZING SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINTAINING A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE IN THE SYSTEM TO SWEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS CWA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
AT 12Z FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO EXTREME WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT AT THE 700MB AND 500MB LEVEL. EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER WEST CENTRAL ALBERTA.
300 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY. S UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC.
203 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF NAPLES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN CEDAR KEY TO THE LOWER 80S IN FORT MYERS. COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT AS COOL AIR AND LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CHANGES IN STORE AS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.
208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST KEEPS US IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAIRLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION NOTED BEHIND THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE THERMAL FIELD. SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTERACTION WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION 90-110KT 300MB JET/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS SET UP A LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS GRADIENT WAS COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN YELLOWSTONE PARK AND WARMER AIR OVER KLVM TO CREATE GAP FLOW. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN DOMINATES THE PATTERN.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK CAA BEHIND IT.
A WEAK SHRTWV TROF /CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA PER EARLY MRNG WV IMAGERY/ WILL MOV ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROF WILL MOV INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD A BIT BETTER MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUN THAN SAT WITH THE SFC WINDS TURNING SE BEHIND THE FNT ON SAT LIMITING MIXING.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA/NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-MON. THE UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN REGION FRI. AN UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS TROUGH VERSUS SOLUTIONS FROM 24-36 HOURS AGO. WHEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MUCH LIKE TODAY THERE COULD BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX AND MAYBE EVEN A QUICK SPRINKLE.
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
2ND SYSTEM MOVES OUT MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE HIGH END OF 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WARMER ON MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC JET WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING THIS MOISTURE OVER ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. MEANING HAVE KEPT COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME BUT MOST OF THE HIGHER POPS NW OF A HUM TO ASD LINE.
MOBRIDGE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DOES SHOW A WEAK RIDGE.
Moisture was streaming in aloft from the south Pacific due to a cutoff upper level low swirling over southern Arizona.
618 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 20S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FURTHER RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ON ORDER OF 1-3C WARMER AT 925MB.
DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO DEEPEN. HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S WEST WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TO THE LOWER 70S EAST WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN TX ON MONDAY. AND FURTHER AIDED BY INCREASING UPPER LVL SPEED DIVERGENCE AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS WELL SWD INTO MEXICO. IN THE EVENT THAT THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH. UPPER LOWS TO SET UP OVER SW STATES THRU REST OF PERIOD. WITH EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS A WARM FRONT DRIFTS N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIG PLAYERS IN RAINFALL ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH SITES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ONLY SEEING MID 50S. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN 80 TO 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING AND LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL ABATE AND GO VARIABLE (5 MPH) THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
252 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT.
237 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO MONDAY.
WEAK WEST-EAST SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS NE/IA/IL WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS CANADA AND ANOTHER LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
MODELS START TO DISAGREE WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW THAT SHOULD DEVELOP MID WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY SPINNING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AROUND AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 60 48 63 / 30 50 70 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 58 45 61 / 30 30 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 59 45 60 / 20 30 70 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 57 42 58 / 20 20 70 80.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE COOLER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES TUE.
An upper low in the southern stream is sliding along the U. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Southwest GA. As the upper low drifts eastward, we will see cyclogenesis over Deep South TX overnight with frontogenesis extending eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Look for lows in upper 40s well north to the lower 50s elsewhere.
SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASINGLY WARM AIR TO THE REGION. ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH AND CARVE OUT A WEAK WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUES NGT.
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS A WARM FRONT DRIFTS N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA.
243 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF SFC TROF MAY AID/FOCUS SHSN DEVELOPMENT FM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY RANGING FM THE LOWER 30S NW AND NE TO THE UPPER 30S (POSSIBLY 40F) FAR SCNTRL. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE.
135 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 328 AM CDT THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. JEE 340 AM CDT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE.
257 PM PDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
/ISSUED 441 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH.
251 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS, A SUBTLE SHRTWV WILL BE FORCED NORTH, INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY.
313 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK UPPER LOW GOING NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FLURRIES TO THE AREA.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT THROUGH 09/00Z WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough that is currently centered over Arizona will approach West Central Texas today and tonight. It ends up leaving a broad weak trough axis across Texas through mid week, but it looks to remain dry for West Central Texas.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. STILL, A WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, COOLER HIGHS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LOSES THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 00Z.
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THE BEST SHOT OF ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN THE WEAK AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A BROAD WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SW JET FILTERING WARMER AIR.
WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE SW CONUS IS MOVING EAST. /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN BAJA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMER TEMPS TODAY TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE 60S SHOULD BE COMMON. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER WITH 50S BEING COMMON.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE LOW TRIGGERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND COVERAGE/AMOUNT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE PRESENT AND WILL PLAY A ROLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S.
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT.
143 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS NEAR 50.
616 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT.
300 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL GO THROUGH THE FRONTOLYSIS STAGE AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDING SHOW THAT THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BLOCK ANY OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BE 10-12KFT LIKELY TAKING THE FORM OF A PARTIAL SUN-BLOCKING LAYER OF ALTO/CIRROSTRATUS. LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. STILL LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPS ANY POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSIONS AT BAY.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A NORTH WIND WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT RACES SOUTH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS TROUGHING IN THE PATTERN ISNT EXACTLY SPEEDY TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION.
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 328 AM CDT THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. JEE 340 AM CDT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE.
241 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 Mostly cloudy skies were being seen across the area this afternoon and that is keeping temperatures cooler than yesterday but still seasonably mild for this time of year. Upper level low near West Texas will slowly work across the southern U.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN US RIDGE WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY WARM DAY ON MONDAY.
BUT EARLIER SUNSHINE HAD HELPED TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
300 PM PDT Sun Mar 8 2015 Above normal temperatures continue through Monday under strong high pressure. A weather system will bring a chance of showers and cooler weather by mid-week. Little change expected Monday as dry and mild conditions continue for the region as the strong ridge remains in place along the west coast.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO WINTER WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTHEAST.
414 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM MORNING LOWS/THICKER HIGH CLOUDS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S DESPITE BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD FRONT.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND THEN MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK.
254 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MID LVL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIG STORY FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.
WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH MEXICO THAT IS STEERING A TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE RIBBON OVER THE REGION. STRONGER H3 DIVERGENCE IS BEING MODELED OVER BAJA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING H3 JET MAX ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AND ENHANCED DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION UNDER A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET STRUCTURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
should see highs in the upper 60s/near 70 along and south of the I 70 corridor with cooler readings around 60 along the NE border as northerly winds increase there earlier in the afternoon. Will keep lows tonight from the low 30s north to middle 30s east central. A southern stream upper level trough will move east across the southern plains. Highs will only reach the lower 60s.
00Z ECMWF WARMER THAN THE GFS. GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER OUTPUT. BUT LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S REGION-WIDE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z-15Z MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOC WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWMELT TODAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE SUNRISE AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO HAVE LW TROF ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE W CST WHERE AN AMPLIFIED HIGH REMAINS. SFC OBS NOW HAVE COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TRAILING WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED NWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF CO. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WARMER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND PROGRESSION IN THE WESTERN RIDGE. THERE IS SOME IN THE 500-700MB LAYER BUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ANY FORCING IS SOUTH OF IOWA AND WHERE THE SHORT WAVE IS IMPACTING THE STATE THERE IS VIRTUALLY NONE. PTYPE IS OF SOME CONCERN BECAUSE WE WERE CLEAR FOR A FAIR PORTION OF LAST EVENING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP TO AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WHEN THE MID CLOUDS ARRIVED TEMPS RECOVERED A COUPLE DEGREES AND AT 3 AM ARE SITTING AT JUST BELOW FREEZING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING.