Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER (1007 MILLIBARS) OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS OVER OUR REGION IN BETWEEN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND NARROW RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW ON TUESDAY.
625 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Showers have spread northward into mainly our southeast Missouri counties early this afternoon associated with the upper low over the Gulf Coast. Best chances of more widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be Tuesday with the passage of a cold front.
As a broad upper trough departs central Canada tonight a ridge of high pressure will build through the Central Rockies. This in turn will force northwesterly flow over the Northern/Central High Plains and send a cold front through the CWA.
DEWPOINTS WERE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND THE TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NW KS AND ACROSS NORTHERN CO. MAN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DROP A TIGHT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA BY SAT AFTERNOON. DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH COOLER AIR MAKING IT DOWN THIS FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRI-SUN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST.
FOR 00Z TERMINAL FORECASTS POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MID STATE KEEPING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THIS TIME TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROPOSPERE IS QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER 500 MBARS THEN DRIES OUT ABOVE MAKING FOR AN AIR MASS THAT IS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE.
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
937 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER GALVESTON BAY. COULD SEE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND BETTER FORCING MOVES OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 43 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE TEXAS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION FROM CONROE TO CROCKETT SHOULD MOVE WEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE GULF.
THE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE MAY KEEP SOME AREAS WARMER THAN FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WHERE MODELS HAVE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT AND WARMER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. CONSOLIDATING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WHICH IS EMANATING FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING AT 36N/135W.
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR HOUSTON BUT THESE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME.
SO FAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED WITH VORT AND MOISTURE PIVOTING AROUND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PULL EAST TONIGHT THE GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED POPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTER COUNTIES WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LIGHT SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BECOMES S/SW INTO TUE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE UPPER LOW OVR THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN TROF.
N OF AN STATIONARY UPPER LOW STILL LINGERING OVER SE TX.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE TRENDING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FROM NV AND SLIGHTLY ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVOR LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHICH WOULD CREATE COOLER WEATHER FOR SW CA. WHILE THE GFS FAVORS RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMER WEATHER.
WITH SCTD CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. /ISSUED 411 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE UPPER TX COAST. 24 DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SFC COUNTERPART SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 The mild weather pattern will continue into Tuesday as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper ridge across the southern tier of the U. In addition an upper level low pressure system positioned over the western Gulf Coast will excerpt some influence on Ozarks weather into Tuesday. A shear axis stretching northeast from the upper level low to the mid-Mississippi Valley will provide some focus for isolated to scattered showers across south central and southeastern Missouri including the eastern Ozarks.
1034 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 CURRENTLY - A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CONTRIBUTING TO SWATHS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND A RARE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE LOWER KEYS. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH NORTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS EMERGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM KMQT TO NORTHEAST CO AND TROUGH FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHEAST WY. LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE ROCKIES.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL SD. FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS HAPPENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN USA. AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. SLOWLY ERODING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL WI TO THE MID 50S ACROSS POTIONS OF IA/WI. BAGGY TROUGHS ACROSS THE NOAM CONTINENT. WITH AN OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A BROAD TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO A RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DUNN /ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL PULSE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE DFW METROPLEX. /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE TROF IS MARKED BY A WELL DEFINED WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS TO EAST ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z ONCE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ENHANCED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.
MM AN INVERTED SFC TROF SPANNED FROM SE CO INTO NC IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROF WAS LEADING TO CU ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. NORTH WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. HAASE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A cold front located over southern Nebraska could be the impetus for showers and and a few thunderstorms as if spreads into northern Kansas overnight.
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SLOW- MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BEAUMONT. AN UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOK BROADLY ON THE WARM SIDE GIVEN THAT WE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WITH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREEP WESTWARD TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL PROMOTE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE.
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. TOMORROW NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH RIDGE.
637 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SLOW- MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BEAUMONT. AN UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOK BROADLY ON THE WARM SIDE GIVEN THAT WE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WITH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREEP WESTWARD TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL PROMOTE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MORNING AND MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE LOWER 48. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MAN. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS NEAR THE HIGH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 20S. AND IN THE LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES BLOCKED IN SASKATCHEWAN.
934 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 ADJUSTED TIMING OF WEAKENING PCPN ACROSS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CLOSELY TIED TO SHOWER LINE.
704 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW CLEARING THE MPX CWA WITH A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM CANADA IN ITS WAKE. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE HIGH COMING DOWN FROM CANADA LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WE HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS ALL DAY. AND WE ENDED UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST. WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING BENEATH THE HIGH RIGHT NOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND INTO NODAK/NW MN.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
Some overnight temperatures in sheltered valleys may fall below freezing with patchy frost possible.
623 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL PULSE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE DFW METROPLEX. /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY MIDWEEK A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE LOW STARTS ITS EWD PROGRESSION LATER TONIGHT AS ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE SHORT AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS. REGARDLESS OF THIS HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE KEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST IN BEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WITH SCTD CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. /ISSUED 411 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE UPPER TX COAST. 24 DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SFC COUNTERPART SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
917 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON TUESDAY.
1137 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GIVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG TROUGH AXIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND STILL SEASONAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL MOTION OF THIS CONV IS GENERALLY TO THE W-NW WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FLOW. ON FRIDAY DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX WILL START TO DRIFT WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. IN ADDITION SOME BROAD 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE GULF WILL START TO EDGE WEST TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE CONV POTENTIAL TOMORROW ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE LOCATIONS AND ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. SINCE THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO ADVECT IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION THE FORECAST TEMPS GENERATED BY THESE TWO MODEL SETS ARE A BIT COOLER VERSUS THE DRY ECMWF NUMBERS.
756 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT'S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.
921 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON'S BAY.
403 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 ADDED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN IN UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN SHINING. BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AS VISIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL CU FIELD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SHOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
837 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SSWWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE HIGH THIN CIRRUS WITH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT NE WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NOT MUCH IF ANY CU FIELD ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SPARKED CONVECTION TODAY. TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
741 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON'S BAY.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. GUYER UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DRY AND VERY WARM START TO THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM UPPER HIGH AROUND NM NWWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.
DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH.
942 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SSWWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE HIGH THIN CIRRUS WITH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT NE WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NOT MUCH IF ANY CU FIELD ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SPARKED CONVECTION TODAY. TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST.
631 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 Generally quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected over the next several days as upper-level high pressure currently over the southern Plains continues to retrograde westward and brings northwest flow back across the region. At the surface, high pressure will drift very slowly to the east, allowing light southerly winds and a bit more moisture to seep back into the region beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, bringing dewpoints back into the upper 60s to near 70, and max heat indices back into the mid to upper 90s most afternoons. A few disturbances may ride down the ridge and into the region during the forecast period, but will be somewhat difficult to pin down both spatially and temporally.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
833 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under ridging aloft. Theta-e ridge is forecast to stay well NW of the area, so chances of convection at terminals remain slim.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MIDDLE 70S TO THE SOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THEREFORE WENT WITH A BLEND TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE BUT THAT STILL BRINGS LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT SO THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL HOLD STRONG AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE OLD BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MODEST WINDS. AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
823 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PA SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.