Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This has allowed highs to rise into the 40s for the lower elevations. Temperatures cool into the teens and 20s over the plains tonight and single digits for the high country. Some cooler high mountain valley spots may see locally lower values. Friday, the upper level low slowly moves to the south and east of Colorado. Temperatures aloft warm a decent amount into Friday supporting highs considerably warmer than today. Expect highs in the 50s across the lower elevations, 40s for the foothills/high mountain valleys, and 20s/30s for the mountains.
This is particularly the case for locations south of I-20, and especially closer to the Highway 84 corridor. The highest QPF for this evening is around the MissLou, where the recent guidance is giving around 2.
Otherwise, a quiet night across the area as we watch for the warm front to move in. The warm front is the main challenge for the short term forecast. Temperatures will increase a couple degrees from today as the warmer air mass advects into our region from Montana.
The Florida Keys and coastal waters are sitting at the base of broad ridging along the eastern seaboard, resulting in light to gentle east to southeast flow across the area. The ridge along the east coast will slide off into the Atlantic overnight and tomorrow in response to a progressive pattern aloft. As the ridge becomes less defined over the area, the pressure gradient will slacken, allowing winds to become light, and at times variable, by tomorrow morning. Into the afternoon tomorrow, ridging will begin to build into the southeastern CONUS, organizing gentle breezes out of the northeast to east across the Keys and coastal waters. 8 inches, with over 70 percent RH in the lowest 300 mb. MLCape values (mixing the lowest 50mb) are over 1000 j/kg, with little inhibition.
Tomorrow should be mainly dry with high temperatures in the low to middle 60s.
High temperatures today will be in the low 60s to low 70s.
High pressure will build back into the area through Friday.
424 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 Next 36 hours look tranquil, as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures Friday will reach the low to mid 40s for most locations, with some 50s along the I-25 corridor.
The closed low's position, now over south-southeast New Mexico, has left the entire CWA under east to northeasterly winds aloft which favors downsloping on the West Side of the Divide and dry air to start eroding through low level moisture. Meanwhile, another trough digging into the PacNW has pinched a ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin, in between these two systems. Ridging will continue to nose into eastern Utah and western Colorado this evening and into Friday, pulling a region of subsidence and drier air across the Western Slope. High pressure continues its eastward progression Friday and maintains benign weather through the night. However, warm air advection and increasing cloud cover ahead of the next trough should moderate lows Friday night, in comparison to tonight.
Upper-level ridging will maintain dry conditions across the Northern Rockies and Montana through Friday with temperatures warming to above seasonal averages.
214 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 Upper-level ridging will maintain dry conditions across the Northern Rockies and Montana through Friday with temperatures warming to above seasonal averages.
High pressure will be in control through Friday bringing dry conditions, light winds and warming temperatures.
However, the lower Colorado River Valley will see breezy north winds lingering into Friday before becoming light to begin the weekend.
1054 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 (The rest of tonight) Dry air will continue to work into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight behind a cold front still moving across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas.
945 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 Next 36 hours look tranquil, as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures Friday will reach the low to mid 40s for most locations, with some 50s along the I-25 corridor.
Thunderstorm chances will remain low overnight, mainly south of the Highway 80/I-85 corridor. Rain chances will diminish considerably after sunrise Friday, as the short wave trof axis moves into Georgia.
300 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 A Pacific cold front moved through the area late yesterday but post-frontal daytime temps to our west remained rather mild. While max temps this afternoon will be cooler than yesterday they will remain mild and we should see more sunshine.
Dense cloud cover will help to keep temperatures on the mild side, with lows bottoming out in the lower 50s in most locations.
Meanwhile, mid to upper level ridge of high pressure dominates Florida Peninsula blocking series of troughs from making it down into the area through the weekend.
High pressure builds into Arizona today, with warmer temperatures and light winds expected through the weekend.
100 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Light rain is expected arrive by dawn with a crossing cold front.
(Today) Mild and dry conditions today with a mix of cloud cover before rain chances increase late tonight as the large upper low currently over far W TX begins to eject northeastward.
1004 PM MST Thu Nov 24 2022 The upper trough is pushing into the Great Lakes region, while a ridge builds over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is spreading into our CWA. The broad upper ridge will shift eastward over the northern states Friday, as a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As winds become southwesterly ahead of the approaching low-level trough, strong WAA will commence across the northern plains.
151 AM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Upper ridge will move east through Montana today with warm and dry weather.
1230 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 A rather complex synoptic pattern has set up with a ridge over the northern Rockies, a trough near the Great Lakes, and a deep closed low along the Rio Grande. At the surface, high pressure takes control of the central and northern Plains. Northwest winds have gusted above 30 mph today in the wake of a strong cold front.
An upper ridge will shift east on Friday as southwest flow aloft develops ahead of an approaching upper trough.
one being the closed low over west Texas and the other the next upstream trough arriving to the PacNW coast. One caveat in some of the valleys will be the arrival of warmer air aloft strengthening the low level inversions and hampering the true potential of warming from mixing. Not overly confident in temperature forecast for today but looks like a general 10 degree warming in the mountains and a few degrees cooler in the western desert valleys.
A Pacific cold front moved through the area late yesterday but post-frontal daytime temps to our west remained rather mild. While max temps this afternoon will be cooler than yesterday they will remain mild and we should see more sunshine.
Building high pressure influences surface and aloft should provide dry conditions remainder of today through Saturday morning.
420 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Light rain is expected arrive by dawn with a crossing cold front.
Mid to high clouds, however, will increase from the southwest as the upper low creeps eastward over west TX. Rain chances will first increase after mid day over north TX with increasing isentropic ascent, and then spread northeastward overnight as large scale ascent increases with the upper low.
This northeasterly flow aloft will slowly weaken as a ridge builds in overhead.
The upper level ridge that had settled over Montana the past few days will continue to break down over the next 24 hours as an upper level trough begins to work its way into the area. Any snow will taper off quickly on Saturday as an upper level trough moves to the east, though cooler air will continue to work its way into the region on breezy westerly winds. Highs on Saturday will be noticeably cooler area wide as daytime temperatures top out in the mid 30s to low 40s.
551 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (Today through Saturday) Looks like plenty of over-running across the area as a trough remains between the cold front to our west and the warm front to our south. The surface has developed near New Orleans and will slide east through the day, before clearing out of the area, while the cold front stalls to our north and washes out. Looks like our best shot at any thunder will be through the morning in the southeast as instabilities are in place just ahead of the low. Dry air moves in for tonight through the first half of Saturday as a low pressure system develops along the TX coast and becomes occluded by Saturday morning.
Looking at our 00Z sounding, there may be just enough shear to keep the possibility of quick spin up but an overall lack of instability is likely to keep those chances on the low side. Tomorrow, a stronger system will move across the Southern Plains, finally pushing the cold front through the area.
Another dry and warm day is in store with near zonal flow on top of upper ridging. A cold front will start to push down into the western counties tonight, and then through the rest of the way through the CWA on Saturday.
518 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (Today and tonight) Both the GFS and the ECMWF continue to take the low pressure system currently sitting across West Texas into the Big Bend region. Otherwise, a cold frontal passage will continue to usher in breezy north winds. This will keep temperatures cool today with the rain and overcast skies limiting our high temperatures to the low to mid 40s for this afternoon. Normally, we are right around the middle 60s this time of year, so much cooler than normal temperatures are expected for today.
Will return to normal for a few days before cold front brings chilly temps by mid week. Warm air advection resulting from a high pressure center to our south will contribute to mild temperatures today and tomorrow, as well as the lack of snowpack.
648 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Light showers will wrap up mid-day, lingering in the ridges.
850mb temperatures continue warm another 4F to 6F ahead of an approaching upper level trough and cold front. Cold front moves through during the night, producing north winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 20s to around 30.
Discussion: Currently rain showers are moving across the Tennessee Valley as a trough swings through the eastern U. By the afternoon the weak front along the trough will have moved through and winds will turn more westerly/northwesterly. Front won't cause much of a dent in temperatures with highs today expected to be only a few degrees cooler than on Thanksgiving Day.
High pressure will begin to flatten by this afternoon ahead of an approaching wave of moisture. The higher terrain and mountain passes of northwest Montana and north central Idaho will see the main focus of precipitation, with generally 2 to 4 inches of accumulation expected by Saturday morning. Rain, snow and patchy freezing rain are all possible, and with cold road temperatures, slick conditions will likely develop tonight.
High pressure will bring quiet weather conditions to the area through tonight. A passing weather disturbance and cold front is expected to bring some snow mainly across the higher terrain of Elko county Saturday.
While it will be windy, expect temperatures to generally be a few degrees warmer than they were on Thanksgiving. The upper level ridge that had settled over Montana the past few days will continue to break down over the next 24 hours as an upper level trough begins to work its way into the area. Any snow will taper off quickly on Saturday as an upper level trough moves to the east, though cooler air will continue to work its way into the region on breezy westerly winds. Highs on Saturday will be noticeably cooler area wide as daytime temperatures top out in the mid 30s to low 40s.
718 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling and moderate NW wind trail a cold front for a few hours this morning. High pressure building the Ohio valley then ensures dry weather and decreasing clouds this afternoon. A cold front clears to the east of southeast Michigan along the the trough axis this morning with plenty of low clouds filling in behind it. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected this afternoon as the thermal trough grazes the area with 850 mb temperatures generally around 0C. Gust potential on the higher end of this range will be towards the Thumb where the greater lower level flow will be.
519 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (Today) Mild and dry conditions today with a mix of cloud cover before rain chances increase late tonight as the large upper low currently over far W TX begins to eject northeastward.
High pressure will remain over the area today, resulting in dry and stable conditions. A weak cold front will graze northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Saturday.
However, the overall trends do suggest that the shallow and stable surface layer from the nocturnal inversion will continue to mix out, which will get some additional assistance from the veering low level winds and associated WAA regime ahead of cold front that extends from the northern Gulf coast into the western Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, mid to upper level ridge of high pressure dominates Florida Peninsula blocking series of troughs from making it down into the area through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Both the GFS and the ECMWF continue to take the low pressure system currently sitting across West Texas into the Big Bend region. Otherwise, a cold frontal passage will continue to usher in breezy north winds. This will keep temperatures cool today with the rain and overcast skies limiting our high temperatures to the low to mid 40s for this afternoon. Normally, we are right around the middle 60s this time of year, so much cooler than normal temperatures are expected for today.
340 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Drying/clearing in store for this evening into Saturday as high pressure builds behind the front.
Last day for the upper level ridge as a more active pattern will take shape this weekend. The ridge will gradually weaken during the day as the next trough approaches from the northwest. A weak trough will quickly move through the region tonight.
(Rest of today through Saturday) Upper level (H500) ridging remains centered just north of Cuba, while a relatively rich theta-e airmass continues to usher in over South Florida from the warm Atlantic waters. Temperatures will be warmer than usual, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
243 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 A cold front will pull east of the area this afternoon, with a breezy west to northwest wind developing behind the front. Conditions will dry out this afternoon into tonight, as high pressure builds into the Commonwealth.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level low is currently over northern Mexico/Far West Texas according to water vapor satellite imagery. Rain showers will be diminishing from southwest to northeast across the region Saturday morning and afternoon as the upper low makes its way from west to east across West Central Texas. Expect cooler lows in the mid 30s tonight in the southwest counties where some clearing of clouds/rain is expected, with lows in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Some sunshine will likely be able to break out across the southern counties in the afternoon, with highs in those areas able to reach the low to mid 50s, while highs in the upper 40s are expected in the Big Country.
1150 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (Today and tonight) Both the GFS and the ECMWF continue to take the low pressure system currently sitting across West Texas into the Big Bend region. Otherwise, a cold frontal passage will continue to usher in breezy north winds. This will keep temperatures cool today with the rain and overcast skies limiting our high temperatures to the low to mid 40s for this afternoon. Normally, we are right around the middle 60s this time of year, so much cooler than normal temperatures are expected for today.
The Holiday weekend weather deteriorates somewhat as an upper level trough moving through the Panhandle and western Montana pushes a cold front through eastern Idaho. This one comes from the same direction, but the trough is deeper and expect things to be windier, snowier, and colder after it passes to the east on Tue afternoon. Increased cloud cover late tonight means milder temperatures for the lows.
1241 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Broad upper ridging covers the western and north central CONUS, while a trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Upper ridge will flatten tonight as Pac NW trough comes ashore, and the cold front will begin crossing our CWA.
High pressure builds into Arizona today, with relatively warmer conditions and lighter breezes expected through the weekend. The main theme for today will be much less wind as the low level pressure/height field relaxes. High temperatures today will still be a few degrees below normal across much of the High Country, with the exception being along the Kiabab and across parts of Yavapai and Gila counties. Outside of a few passing high clouds, mostly sunny skies are anticipated with highs in the mid 30s across the highest terrain to near 70 degrees across the Yavapai deserts.
The low clouds and light precip will continue to push off to the south this afternoon, but skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy overnight due to mid and high clouds moving overhead. Clouds will be on the increase again tomorrow as a low pressure system/front moves out of the SW. However, with an approaching low pressure and front moving out of the SW, precip chances will begin to increase tomorrow night.
Temperatures currently are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Aloft mean layer ridging is holding firm across south Florida and Cuba. Breezes will gradually freshen as the next high pressure builds in Saturday.
1107 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 A cold front will pull east of the area this afternoon, with a breezy west to northwest wind developing behind the front. Conditions will dry out this afternoon into tonight, as high pressure builds into the Commonwealth.
109 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 High pressure will build into our region tonight into Saturday.
We're way warmer in higher elevations and cooler in the lowest elevations than predicted. GAH MORNING DISCUSSSION: Upper ridge will move east through Montana today with warm and dry weather. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler on Saturday.
Locations in the lee of mountain ranges are jumping into the 50s and a few 60s, while cold pool locations are struggling in the lower 40s.
This high will slide eastward towards the central Atlantic Coast into Saturday morning. Light winds and clear skies with this high tonight will allow temperatures to fall back into the low 30s, and may support some patchy early morning ground fog again, especially over central parts of the state. The combination of an influx of a warmer airmass from our southwest and a mainly sunny start to the day should result in another mild late November day, with highs likely topping out into the mid to perhaps upper 50s.
(Through tonight ) Large upper level low is currently centered over northern Chihuahua and is just beginning to eject east this afternoon. (Tomorrow through Friday) As the upper low continues to lift ENE Saturday toward the Red R valley, rain will continue to expand northeast Saturday morning.
1204 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Light showers will wrap up mid-day, lingering in the ridges.
Clouds have overspread the area this morning ahead of the approaching relatively weak cold front expected later today and tonight. Snow levels should be high enough to keep snow relegated to the high Cascades, and even there, amounts will remain around or below an inch total. VFR weather will prevail through late afternoon with areas of MVFR reaching the south Oregon coast by later in the day with an arriving cold front. Winds become southerly this morning ahead a cold front which will cause a wind shift to north by this evening.
219 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Very quiet conditions were observed this afternoon, with abundant sunshine under an area of high pressure that continues to settle into the region from the west. 1) Dry conditions will continue through Saturday afternoon before our next bout of widespread rainfall moves in for late Saturday The area of high pressure will remain in control over the region during the short term period. High temperatures Saturday are expected to warm up to the lower to middle 50s.
Current 500mb mesoanalysis shows higher pressure building into the region this morning with the previous upper level low system well to our south. In response, temperatures have been warming at a decent rate this morning over the lower elevations. Airport is 49F, which is already several degrees warmer than yesterday's max temperature. This northeasterly flow aloft will slowly weaken as a ridge builds in overhead.
A cold front has moved into northwest Indiana, and drier air behind the front will allow hazy conditions to erode and clouds to scour out this morning. High pressure over southern Illinois will slide east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley tonight into Saturday. This will open the door for the deep upper low over far west Texas to eject northeast. Normal highs are in the low to mid 40s, and we will be greeted with mid 50s with medium to high confidence given fairly low variance in ensemble modeled temperatures, and even some upper 50s may be found as well if the clouds don't fill in too quickly.
1134 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Light showers will wrap up mid-day, lingering in the ridges.
248 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 A cold front will pull east of the area this afternoon, with a breezy west to northwest wind developing behind the front. Conditions will dry out this afternoon into tonight, as high pressure builds into the Commonwealth.
Winds during this time have largely remained out of the southwest, with a few gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph along the Buffalo Ridge. That being said, hi-res guidance does hint that a quick moving trough axis and sfc cold front will gradually dive southeastward across the region through the afternoon and evening. Rather, expect the main impacts across our area to be an increase in winds along the front, with "cooler" temperatures forecast to return in its wake. Thus, have opted to continue nudging highs toward NBM's 90th percentile, which has temperatures ranging from the low 50s near Hwy- 14 to upper 50s along the MO River Valley.
The Tennessee Valley sits in between a trough to our east and a developing low pressure system to our west over TX. Overnight, expect cloud cover to persist with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
1012 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 A cold front will pull east of the area this afternoon, with a breezy west to northwest wind developing behind the front. Conditions will dry out this afternoon into tonight, as high pressure builds into the Commonwealth.
While it will be windy, expect temperatures to generally be a few degrees warmer than they were on Thanksgiving. A North Pacific trof approaches from the west. Strong gusty winds develop in association with ridge collapse. /ISSUED 456 AM MST Fri Nov 25 2022/ The upper level ridge that had settled over Montana the past few days will continue to break down over the next 24 hours as an upper level trough begins to work its way into the area. Any snow will taper off quickly on Saturday as an upper level trough moves to the east, though cooler air will continue to work its way into the region on breezy westerly winds. Highs on Saturday will be noticeably cooler area wide as daytime temperatures top out in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Mean RH in the lowest 300mb is well below 70 percent, with abundant dry air above. The ridge along the eastern seaboard which was providing the gentle southeast breezes yesterday has been shunted to the south and east, and now replaced by broad troughing just off the eastern seaboard. The resultant impact on the Keys is only weak ridging near surface, with a broad ridge aloft.