Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning has ended with this afternoon's forecast package, though please continue to use caution while travelling in the higher elevations tonight. Strong radiational cooling under clear to mostly clear skies will see temperatures plummet with the previously projected overnight lows of -10 to -20F in the mountains and high valleys and near to below zero temperatures in the lower valleys still on track. Sunday will see a ridge of high pressure build across the Four Corners with PWATs dropping to 50 to 75% of normal in response. High temperatures will moderate by a few degrees but see no sign of a break in the inversions so near to below freezing readings are expected regionwide.
As the trough pushes southeast through our forecast area, enhanced northerly winds can be expected this afternoon, but will quickly diminish as we approach sunset. The highest wind gusts will concentrate along the Colorado River Valley, where waves will respond with 1 to 2 ft crests along southern portions of Lake Mohave, specifically around Katherine Landing. First Freeze Warnings in the lower Colorado River Valley and the Hard Freeze Warning for southern Mohave County remain in good shape, as the NBM continues to slowly trend cooler. Temperatures will slowly rebound through the work week, with temperatures eclipsing seasonal averages by late-week due to a ridging pattern setting up over the southeastern Pacific.
Water vapor imagery continues to shows a transitory ridge of high pressure building over California this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s, with even more locations across the interior valleys to be at or a few degree below the freezing mark during the early morning hours of Sunday. After a very cold start to Sunday, expect temperatures to rebound to be similar to or slightly warmer than today, as the transitory ridge remains over the region.
An upper level low approaches NV from the NW on Sunday, which will back the flow aloft to a more zonal direction. The result of which will be highs Sunday afternoon generally 5 degrees warmer than today. Conditions remain dry through Sunday night, however high clouds will begin to spread in from the NW ahead of the approaching upper level low.
235 PM MST Sat Jan 1 2022 For tonight, the trough axis will shift to the east this evening with dry and subsidence in the mid and upper levels. An upper level ridge over the West will build into CO late tonight into Sunday. Very cold temperatures in the high mountain valleys as well, also around minus 25F below, but it could get even colder.
346 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 A cold front has pushed into north Mississippi. Tomorrow, the upper trough associated with todays cold front will approach the Mississippi River. A disturbance still on the east side of the trough will track across the Midsouth.
New model runs are coming in with the upper low closing off which produces more precipitation across the Mid-South on Sunday. The upper low will continue to filter in Arctic air into the region, resulting in precipitation falling mainly in the form of snow. /issued 346 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/ A cold front has pushed into north Mississippi. Tomorrow, the upper trough associated with todays cold front will approach the Mississippi River. A disturbance still on the east side of the trough will track across the Midsouth.
252 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 The primary lead impulse that produced the widespread precipitation across the area yesterday is exiting the area this morning as the main cold front continues to sag to the southeast. Rapid drying aloft will begin later this morning, although low level moisture will remain trapped beneath a midlevel inversion at least until the elongated upper trough axis finally passes through the area late today into this evening.
201 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 High pressure surface and aloft currently over the Florida peninsula will shift east of the region through the day. inducing an area of low pressure to develop on the boundary today.
Though, with temperatures rapidly cooling, we may see some freezing rain develop north of KCXO. Model soundings show the possibility of freezing rain at KCLL & KUTS, so it'll be something to watch out for if precip starts to develop. /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/ As of 11 PM CST, the cold front is currently extending between the College Station and the Houston metro area. Temperatures across the Brazos Valley have quickly dropped into the low 40s in just 15 to 30 minutes. Forecast soundings continue to exhibit a warm nose aloft lagging behind the colder sfc temperatures, resulting in a very small window of light freezing drizzle/rain or sleet, depending on the depth and magnitude of the near sfc cold layer.
Farther northwest ahead of the 500mb trough mid and high level moisture stretches from eastern Colorado into eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Temperatures warm for the start of the new work week as return flow with a weak upper level ridge initiates slight warm air advection from west to east across the forecast area sunday night.
Strong progressive positively tilted trough axis was crossing SW KS at midnight. Radar showed remaining light snow ahead of the trough diminishing rapidly, and satellite imagery confirmed the clearing line advancing southeast into the northwest zones. Subsidence behind the trough axis will erode the clouds quickly, and where they clear over the fresh snow, subzero air temperatures will result. The lower troposphere warms very aggressively, with 850 mb temperatures warming about +17C over yesterday (00z GFS at DDC). Followed the cooler guidance, with areas with the deepest snowpack failing to get to freezing (26-32), and mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
Temperatures continue to drop with many areas proving to be cooler than forecast. With temperatures trending cooler, overnight temperatures were adjusted down over the plains. There have been reports of patchy fog in the lower valley areas of eastern Weld County and eastern Boulder County. For tonight, the trough axis will shift to the east this evening with dry and subsidence in the mid and upper levels. An upper level ridge over the West will build into CO late tonight into Sunday. Very cold temperatures in the high mountain valleys as well, also around minus 25F below, but it could get even colder.
JHM Mostly clear skies are being observed across Northern California today under weak high pressure. Northerly winds continue across the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills today but are forecast to become more diurnal tonight as the trough digging to our east finally moves into the Desert SW. The north winds limited this morning's minimum temperatures in the Valley from falling much below freezing as originally forecast and also limited stratus and fog formation. The diurnal, light winds and clear skies under high pressure tonight into tomorrow morning. will allow for patchy to locally dense fog to form and temperatures to fall below freezing across the Valley.
The cold front, that brought all of the rain to the area, will finally clear the southeastern corner of the forecast area this morning. The cold front that crossed our area will stall over the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. With the cold air already in place, it is possible that accumulating snow will begin over Preston and Tucker counties this evening and then spread further north and west into the low lands of WV and the ridges of SW PA. The highest accumulations would be over Tucker and southern Preston counties. The main concern right now is big differences in model solutions on the track of the low.
Skies have cleared from northeast to southwest with winds diminishing within the vicinity of the high, though winds remain elevated southeast. Weak thermal ridging will allow for southerly winds to return to area and warmer temperatures closer to seasonal averages to start off the week.
The cold kicks east later today as upper level ridging builds in from the plains and the low level flow becomes more southerly post an area of high pressure. Highs could creep above freezing at some locations Tue. Some hints in the models at more amplification of ridging off the west coast toward the weekend with implications for significant cold. The progressive, quick moving flow then suggests some moderation via ridge building for the start of the weekend. The GFS and EC then propose an amplifying ridge off the west coast by Sun and a potentially significant slug of arctic air dropping southward across the region.
Increasing SW flow aloft will support increasingly breezy conds over NE WY and portions of the higher BH today.
1047 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A strong Arctic cold front will continue to track through the region this evening and into tonight, with temperatures currently plummeting a solid 20 to 25 degrees in the wake of the front over the Big Country.
Expect areal coverage of showers to slowly progress southeastward as cold front pushes southeastward.
The strong cold front continues to push through Southeast TX with FROPA here at the office around 130 AM CST. Have added in a mix of freezing rain, ice pellets, and rain for our northern counties in this time frame. Further south, the cold layer at the surface is a bit too shallow, so freezing rain or liquid rain will be the most probable.
The cold front, that brought all of the rain to the area, will finally clear the southeastern corner of the forecast area this morning. The cold front that crossed our area will stall over the Mid-Atlantic region this evening.
1130 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 As of 11 PM CST, the cold front is currently extending between the College Station and the Houston metro area. Temperatures across the Brazos Valley have quickly dropped into the low 40s in just 15 to 30 minutes. Forecast soundings continue to exhibit a warm nose aloft lagging behind the colder sfc temperatures, resulting in a very small window of light freezing drizzle/rain or sleet, depending on the depth and magnitude of the near sfc cold layer.
1025 PM MST Sat Jan 1 2022 A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the driver of mainly quiet weather across western and central Wyoming this weekend.
Under nearly full sun today, highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 40s.
Chilly temps within low level thermal trough will persist into Mon. Deeper troughing aloft centered through the lakes looks to steer bulk of this sys south and east of the area yet snow showers remain likely inland ne half with modest lake accums expected far northwest Wed night-Thu night. A low pressure system and accompanying baroclinic zone slowly slide east away from the area and this continues to allow cold air to come into the area. The lower CIGs in the form of IFR conditions are located closer to the front/baroclinic zone so SBN will be the first to moderate into MVFR CIGs.
Warmer air was already, thankfully, pushing in to the southwest part of the forecast area with temperatures in parts of the southwest up 10 degrees from their overnight lows. A warm front will be crossing the western forecast area today. The limiting factor is that the wind will not be there to mix that warmer air down over the deep snow cover. The H5 ridge moves over for tonight and Monday, though it is fairly flat, so mid and high clouds will result in something less than a sunny / clear sky. With the warm front still over the area it is another not so cold day, especially southwest.
/issued 322 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022/ The biggest concern over the short term forecast continues to be the very cold temperatures that have spread across the region in the wake of yesterdays cold front. Today's modest height/thickness increases aloft and mostly sunny skies will help lift high temperatures into the low to mid 40s area wide. H85 temperatures won't approach freezing until late this afternoon, limiting further surface temperature increases. Winds will be mostly light tonight into early morning Monday, along with little to no cloud cover, resulting in another cold night (but not as cold as this morning) with lows in the low to upper teens.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure retreating offshore over the western Atlantic, with a cold front extending from the Appalachians to the Texas coast. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s once again.
Under nearly full sun today, highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 40s. With high pressure and light winds over the central and eastern half of Texas Monday morning, temperatures will again fall into the upper teens and lower 20s.
KCAG has plummeted to -19F then the clouds moved in and now it is 10 degrees warmer. This warmer air aloft will enhance the lower inversion which will already be incredibly strong with the new snow cover in place. Sensible weather will be quiet to start the week as well stay under the influence of broad ridging the the storm track remains to the North of our CWA.
Lingering cloud cover should keep locations further south slightly warmer with temperatures near zero for the I-70 corridor and lower single digits south of the Interstate into central Missouri. While water vapor satellite imagery still shows a deep, positively tilted trough over the TX/OK Panhandles and vorticity max lifting into eastern Kansas and western Missouri, loss of ice in the dendritic zone should limit snowfall accumulations this morning. Locations with deeper snowpack will be several degrees cooler.
High pressure will begin to build into the Ohio Valley tonight, and will then settle over the area on Monday. Will therefore linger a chance for some light freezing drizzle/flurries for another hour or two. Temperatures have fallen several degrees below freezing across the Miami Valley, so a few slick spots on untreated/elevated surfaces may persist through the rest of the morning. High pressure to our west will begin to build east into the region overnight. On Monday, high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley, Clouds should continue to thin/scatter. It will be more typical of early January with highs ranging from the lower 30s north to the mid 30s south. High pressure will be overhead Monday night bringing clear skies and calm winds. Lows drop into the lower 20s.
Much colder air is starting to push into the region this morning and temperatures will continue to fall through the morning hours and settle in the low to mid 30s for a large portion of the area. Guidance has honed in on a robust upper trough moving through the region today. This low cuts off and deepens over our forecast area and enhances lift over our forecast area. Most of the area will be in the low to mid 20s. North Mississippi and south parts of West Tennessee should make it into the low to mid 40s.
Increasing SW flow aloft will support increasingly breezy conds over NE WY and portions of the higher BH today. This will limit mixing Monday, with primarily NE WY and the higher hills seeing the highest readings, approaching 50 in some locations there.
(Today and tonight) Currently, the upper level trough axis is located through central Oklahoma as it shifts eastward through the Plains. Throughout the day Sunday after the upper level trough exits the region, conditions will improve and be the beginning of a fairly rapid increase in temperatures the next couple days.
The highest threat area appears to be along the TN border from about Calloway county eastward to Todd, however, the amounts are light and ground temps are warm.
527 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 (Today) Scattered snow flurries continue early this morning as the mid level trough axis slides overhead. Highs aren't expected to make it above freezing for most locations this afternoon.
611 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently, the upper level trough axis is located through central Oklahoma as it shifts eastward through the Plains. Throughout the day Sunday after the upper level trough exits the region, conditions will improve and be the beginning of a fairly rapid increase in temperatures the next couple days.
Light winds with the high pressure centered overhead have kept wind chill values a bit warmer than expected, but have kept the Wind Chill headlines going through mid- morning as only a faint breeze will be enough to create hazardous wind chills given the air temperatures. Temperatures this afternoon will warm several degrees above yesterday's highs as weak southerly flow develops with the departing high pressure.
455 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the southern Rockies and northern plains this morning. Low temps Monday night are also expected to be warmer, with the single digits seen across most of the area and teens seen near the Great Lakes.
The cold front, that brought all of the rain to the area, will finally clear the southeastern corner of the forecast area this morning. The cold front that crossed our area will stall over the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. The highest accumulations would be over Tucker county. The main concern right now is the big difference in model solutions on the track of the low. The Mid-Atlantic low will rapidly move out over the Atlantic Monday morning, bring a quick end to the snow in the southeastern ridges.
Today will be the final day of dry and sunny conditions thanks to high pressure, resulting once more in brisk high temperatures and very cold morning temperatures. The thing to pay attention to today will be the increasing winds expected across the Camas Prairie in Idaho, including the Highway 95 corridor from Whitebird Grade to Cottonwood.
Below freezing air wl cont to move in from the N/W, encroaching to the S/E through the predawn hours Sun morning, w/ most of the state seeing a sub-32F or near-32F daily high temp. The aforementioned trof is expected to quickly eject over the FA, where H1000-H500 RH looks to amplify ahead of the feature. Tropospheric cooling wl also intensify as upper-lvl hgt falls accompany the approaching trof. so simply put, vertical thermal profiles are expected to transition from a wintry mix/freezing rain type towards a profile more favorable for snow/snow showers through the later morning and afternoon hours. Srly flow on the Wrn periphery of high pressure wl allow for slightly warmer, but seasonal high temps Mon afternoon with dry wx and clear skies to start off the first Mon of 2022.
345 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Warmer air was already, thankfully, pushing in to the southwest part of the forecast area with temperatures in parts of the southwest up 10 degrees from their overnight lows. A warm front will be crossing the western forecast area today. The limiting factor is that the wind will not be there to mix that warmer air down over the deep snow cover. The H5 ridge moves over for tonight and Monday, though it is fairly flat, so mid and high clouds will result in something less than a sunny / clear sky. With the warm front still over the area it is another not so cold day, especially southwest.
352 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 A thin line of showers and thunderstorms have moved east through the northern MS counties this morning ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will see a fall significantly and quickly from a warmer than normal average to freezing temperatures by Sunday night. Areas along and north of I-55 will see temperatures below freezing in the mid to upper 20s tonight with areas south of I-55 experiences lows at or near freezing. Below normal temperatures will continue on Monday with highs in the low 50s/upper 40s and overnight lows in the upper 20s across the northshore and low 30s on the south shore. High pressure is forecast to build into the area behind the front and drier weather conditions are expected to follow.
Some increase in cirrus from west to east during the day as warm advection begins to take hold as high pressure moves southeast of our area. Coldest temps in this type of pattern will likely be in the Minnesota portion of the northern RRV from Crookston to Hallock as they will the last to see any of the warmer temps. Not nearly as cold tonight as 925-850 mb layer temps warm and warmer air makes it to th sfc. While 850 mb temps cool back down after the trough passage Monday, sfc temps will not be impacted and look for highs in most areas into the teens.
Slightly warmer today as short wave ridge passes to the east and flow turns more zonal to slightly southwest aloft, although light surface winds, fresh snow pack and increasing high clouds will help keep mixing limited. Slightly warmer but still quite cold Sunday night with lows in the single digits to mid teens. Southerly flow increases Monday out ahead the the upper low/trough working onshore. Warmer Monday due to better mixing with increased winds.
328 AM PST Sun Jan 2 2022 Morning fog and freezing temperatures will develop across the San Joaquin Valley today and Monday.
As we get closer to the afternoon the low to our west will likely close off and then slide through the area tonight. Cold air will quickly invade the area along with this low. Models continue to indicate and actually increases the moisture available as the low swings through.
Lingering cloud cover should keep locations further south slightly warmer with temperatures near zero for the I-70 corridor and lower single digits south of the Interstate into central Missouri. While water vapor satellite imagery still shows a deep, positively tilted trough over the TX/OK Panhandles and vorticity max lifting into eastern Kansas and western Missouri, drier air and gradual loss of ice in the dendritic zone should limit snowfall accumulations this morning. Locations with deeper snowpack will be several degrees cooler.
Some patchy precipitation will be possible today behind the cold front which crossed early this morning, however, dry conditions are expected the majority of the day. The cold front that crossed our area will stall over the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. The highest accumulations would be over Tucker county. The main concern right now is the big difference in model solutions on the track of the low. The Mid-Atlantic low will rapidly move out over the Atlantic Monday morning, bring a quick end to the snow in the southeastern ridges.
Many locations are below freezing, including much of the Valley. HREF guidance indicates a chance for the low clouds to extend further into the Sacramento Valley this morning. High level clouds are also passing over the northern part of the state associated with a low pressure system to our northwest.
Windy conditions have developed over the higher terrain of the Little Rockies where gusts in excess of 50 mph have occurred early this morning. These winds are not expected to mix down further east, especially given snow pack, but, do expect warmer temperatures to materialize later in the day. Upper ridging will continue advancing on the region into Monday, with highs again in the 20s for much of NE Montana.
Will keep the highlights in place with strong wording for near blizzard or whiteout conditions. High temperatures today will be warmer but won't feel overly warm with winds being involved. Strong warm advection should allow high temperatures to approach freezing today for most locations. The closer it gets to freezing, the more this will help to limit blowing snow potential.
218 AM PST Sun Jan 2 2022 Drier air and mostly clear skies for the next couple of nights will result in areas of frost and pockets of freezing temperatures in the valleys and deserts.
322 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 The biggest concern over the short term forecast continues to be the very cold temperatures that have spread across the region in the wake of yesterdays cold front. Today's modest height/thickness increases aloft and mostly sunny skies will help lift high temperatures into the low to mid 40s area wide. H85 temperatures won't approach freezing until late this afternoon, limiting further surface temperature increases. Winds will be mostly light tonight into early morning Monday, along with little to no cloud cover, resulting in another cold night (but not as cold as this morning) with lows in the low to upper teens.