Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For the fog, low level moisture remains across the area, but winds are expected to be a little more mixed Tonight, due to inverted troughing in the onshore flow. Expecting an inverted trough near the coast this evening to move inland through the night. Ahead of the trough anticipate fog to develop, then migrate inland as winds pick up a bit with the trough. Further inland, winds will have a chance to settle down before the weakening trough arrives, so anticipate best chance for fog along the I75 corridor. As far as precipitation, latest guidance is consistent in series of troughs moving through the onshore pattern, producing showers, which will then move to the coast by dawn.
Winds will be less than 10 kts, but increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts behind the cold front.
Tomorrow a stronger wave and associated cold front will have a more significant impact on the forecast area. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday morning/afternoon from northwest to southeast, bringing CAA and strong winds.
107 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure anchored over the region this afternoon will maintain a dry and stable low level environment through tonight. This forcing will support a surface anticyclone centering directly over Southeast Michigan during the daylight hours. The backdoor cold front from last evening has since stalled out across far northern IN and OH. Dynamic upper level jet packet with deep PV trough will dig into central Canada on Tuesday. All signs point to a very good structure of the warm front aloft as it surges through owing to the strong differential warm advection centered at approximately 5000 ft agl.
The strong warm advection will help temperatures warm into the low 70s, despite increasing cloud cover. Initially showers and storms should be very widely scattered and focused within a zone of enhanced low level theta-e advection, but by late tomorrow evening, we may see a line of storms approach from the west, ahead of a cold front.
1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Surface wind speeds are picking up as anticipated, with a few gusts appearing in the higher elevations west of the Red River Valley.
256 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High temperatures will peak about 10 degrees warmer than normal across most locations today as a dry northwest flow continues. This quick Canadian trough will push a cold front south Tuesday morning. However, what was once looking like a widespread light precipitation event now looks like a more localized event as the trough has shifted farther east.
Will trim the Flood Watch further to areas south of I-20 where the higher threat of flooding remains. The upper trough that brought the wet weather the last few days weakens and shifts east Tuesday. An isolated shower or storm are possible as the trough exits, mainly over the eastern half of the region Tuesday. With more sun we will see warmer temperatures with most locations seeing highs in the 80's.
246 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Key Points: - Isolated thunderstorms possible tonight, with more Tuesday night as a cold front moves through.
336 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Zonal flow aloft will give way to SW flow aloft Tuesday night ahead of an approaching long wave trough. High pressure centered across the Middle Atlantic states will push offshore by Tuesday as a cold front approaches the Mississippi River Valley.
1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022 There is a much stronger trough moving into British Columbia this morning which will put this stagnant pattern in motion for a few days. The latest H500 hand analysis map continues to show a large trough over eastern NOAM transitioning to a robust ridge over the EPac and the western CONUS coastline. Over the next 24 hours the upstream trough will be digging into the Northern Rockies along with well reflected front at the surface. This trough will then continue to dig southward while staying progressive and sweep through the CWA late in the day. There is very little moisture associated with this system so the frontal and trough passage look to move through mostly uneventful.
126 PM MST Mon Oct 10 2022 A low pressure system will slowly exit southern Arizona today with scattered showers and storms through early this evening.
250 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Canadian high pressure centered over the area will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
I think we can expect similar conditions tomorrow, though several degrees warmer.
A slight chance of isolated light showers over the high Sierra today, otherwise dry. Over the coming days, upper-level ridge will develop over the Pacific Northwest with an anchoring upper-low to the south (Rex Block setup).
Gusty west winds will increase today ahead of a dry cold front for tonight. The main impact of the cold front will be a cooler, drier air mass over the region. Even with the cooler air mass over the region, temperatures will remain 8 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
A lull in precip coverage is likely Tuesday evening before additional chances develop Tuesday night ahead of the approaching cold front.
These storms are holding to their source terrain and diminishing as they float off the high terrain. This will all change in the next 24 hours as an approaching long wave trough is crossing the Idaho Panhandle this afternoon and will impact the West Slope by Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds will be the primary weather event with this trough, as it has been cut off from any meaningful moisture source ahead of it. Ample dry air behind the trough will squash any further hopes of precipitation. the trough's northern track will keep the brunt of its energy over northern Colorado.
Slightly cooler weather and breezy afternoon winds Tuesday across N. Generally however, weather remains benign and warmer than average thru the period with no significant pattern change. Overnight lows look to be in the low 40s to low 30s, with the colder valleys dipping into the upper 20s. Weather will be dry and benign across the forecast region Tuesday with another round of breezy afternoon winds focused this time across Elko County as a robust upper low digs S.
625 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (Remainder of today and tonight) Another beautiful afternoon is underway across the TN Valley, provided by broad scale subsidence to the east of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge currently shifting eastward into the Mid/Lower MS Valley region. Overnight, winds aloft will back to the west-southwest as the ridge axis translates across the southern CONUS, with a gradual increase in high-level clouds expected by sunrise.
618 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Tonight and Tuesday: Dry and slightly warmer. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1026mb high over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys that was ridging back to the southwest across our CWA. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the CWA again. There will be a few more clouds around Tuesday but enough insolation to help temperatures top out a degree or two warmer than today and above normal again.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Zonal flow aloft will give way to SW flow aloft Tuesday night ahead of an approaching long wave trough. High pressure centered across the Middle Atlantic states will push offshore by Tuesday as a cold front approaches the Mississippi River Valley.
Sea surface temperatures across the Florida Keys coastal waters south of the island chain remain in the lower 80s, and given freshening northeast to east flow overnight, nocturnal showers cannot be ruled out, especially towards sunrise. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all the Florida Keys, and boaters should allow more slack in spring and dock lines, and be mindful of less clearance under fixed bridges during high tide.
Overnight lows will drop down into the lower 40s overnight, a few degrees warmer than this morning's lows. Water vapor imagery shows a mid level ridge over the upper Midwest shifting eastward this evening.
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to linger this evening and through the overnight hours as the base of a mid-level trough pivots through the TX/OK Panhandle.
923 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure will continue to move offshore as a backdoor cold front approaches through tonight, before dissipating Tuesday.
805 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Canadian high pressure centered over the area will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
1031 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure will control the weather into mid-week, providing partly to mostly sunny and mild days, along with mainly clear and seasonably cool nights.
648 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak upper level trough remains across the western CONUS and northern Mexico this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the lower 60s. On Tuesday, the upper level trough across the Desert Southwest will weaken, with an upper level low off the southern California coast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s.
Winds will increase today ahead of the passage of a cold front Monday evening. Today and tonight: Early this afternoon we can find our cold front on satellite with regard to an elongated stretch of high clouds from northeast to southwest is sagging into southeast WA and across the Idaho Palouse. Behind the cold front tonight, winds will begin to weaken overnight as they shift out of the northwest. After our winds weaken Tuesday, our overnight temperatures will be in jeopardy of hitting much closer to freezing. Several locations have seen just above or at freezing already, and given we are nearing the very end of growing season for nearly all elevations, it makes sense to see more widespread freezing temperatures and frost.
719 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Clear skies are prevailing with stalled frontal zone still to our west that will eventually shift east as a warm front later tonight. The main impact in the short term will be a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, bringing a wind switch to the northwest and gusty winds. Look for cooler highs in the Devils Lake region, with 70s expected in the Valley and points eastward.
/EC/ Tonight and Tuesday: Dry and slightly warmer. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1026mb high over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys that was ridging back to the southwest across our CWA. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the CWA again. There will be a few more clouds around Tuesday but enough insolation to help temperatures top out a degree or two warmer than today and above normal again.
757 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Sent an update this evening to provide more detail with cold frontal timing and onset of rainfall through the overnight hours tonight.
1051 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure will control the weather into mid-week, providing partly to mostly sunny and mild days, along with mainly clear and seasonably cool nights.
Key Points: - Isolated thunderstorms possible tonight, with more Tuesday night as a cold front moves through.
850 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Canadian high pressure centered over the area will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
632 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Currently high pressure extends from the mid-Atlantic states down into the northwest gulf region as a stalled front remains draped over the central gulf.
115 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 High pressure will continue to build across the area through Wednesday.
Evening satellite imagery showing high clouds accompanying a weak cold front stretched across e-central Oregon and central Idaho. A short wave trough will move by in northwest flow aloft tonight, pushing a weak and dry cold front through the area. Temperatures will quickly rebound Wednesday, however, as yet another upper level ridge builds into the PacNW and continues our period of dry weather with above-normal temperatures.
Water vapor satellite imagery currently depicts a âdryâ cold frontal boundary now sweeping through the southern portion of the CWA with breezy winds near their peak for the Columbia Basin, Eastern Columbia River Gorge, and Northern Oregon. As this feature and accompanying trough centered to our northeast push out of the region tonight into Tuesday morning, surface pressure gradients will weaken thus allowing for westerly winds to decrease. The upper-level pattern heavily favors the return of completely dry and calm conditions in addition to above normal temperatures the remainder of the week as high pressure rebuilds over the Pacific Northwest. The frontal passage will also usher in some cooler air for overnight and Tuesday with highs Tuesday around 10 degrees cooler than today. This will eventually bring the upper level ridge back over the Pacific Northwest midweek and then remain through the weekend.
The upper-level trough that brought us a couple days of clouds and rain/snow showers to the Sierra has finally scooted off to our south. This low will cut off and meander off the southern coast of California through the remainder of the week. This will create a Rex blocking pattern across the western part of the CONUS, consequently keeping our region in a very benign weather pattern. This blocking pattern will finally begin to break down as a trough approaches the western flank of the ridge this weekend, weakening it and squeezing it off to the northeast along with our cutoff low.
The warm front is starting to press into our western CWA while mild late evening temperatures in the 50s linger. Clear skies are prevailing with stalled frontal zone still to our west that will eventually shift east as a warm front later tonight. The main impact in the short term will be a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, bringing a wind switch to the northwest and gusty winds. Look for cooler highs in the Devils Lake region, with 70s expected in the Valley and points eastward.
Low level mass response will result in an increase in downsloping south-southwest winds across the central plains, and combined with adiabatic compression ahead of an approaching cold front will support afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s. Marginal fire weather conditions may arise as well, however the strongest winds will not be juxtaposed with the lowest dewpoints, and therefore no fire weather headlines are currently planned. Otherwise, strong north winds behind the front will usher in much cooler air, with lows ranging from the mid 40s northwest to low 50s southeast. This will in turn help push a surface cold front through the area Tuesday night. Upper level ridging then builds west of the area through this weekend with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface.
Overnight lows will drop down into the lower 40s overnight, a few degrees warmer than this morning's lows. Water vapor imagery shows a mid level ridge over the upper Midwest shifting eastward this evening. This will be well ahead of the cold front, and could feature a marginal risk of strong-severe wind gusts given a favorable combination of CAPE in the 750-1250 J/kg range and a 25-35 knot southwesterly low-level jet beneath mid-level westerly flow of 40-50 knots.
215 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Canadian high pressure centered over the area will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the longwave trough axis across the northern and central Rockies will move east over the northern and central Plains with an associated cold front moving southeast into the Plains and a surface pressures falling across eastern Colorado. As the longwave trough moves east tonight, the cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma after midnight tonight. There is some potential for showers to develop near and behind the front late tonight across north central Oklahoma, but the better lift with this trough will be farther northeast and will keep POPs after midnight low in north central Oklahoma.
The upper-level low pressure system will persist to our south later this week into the weekend and could bring renewed chances for precipitation this weekend in our southern areas, though mainly in the mountains and desert. An area of low pressure can be seen on satellite this morning spinning just off the southern California coastline. With this low comes increased moisture for our southern zones, mostly for the higher elevations. As heating occurs during the afternoon hours, expect chances of showers and thunderstorms for mostly the higher elevations of Kern County over the next few days. This low will push a bit further offshore by the end of the week which leads to dryer conditions once again.
Look for snow showers over the higher elevations this morning with a few tenths to perhaps up to 1. As a trough deepens over the Upper Mississippi River Valley, a tight pressure gradient will be in place across eastern Montana.
1043 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to linger this evening and through the overnight hours as the base of a mid-level trough pivots through the TX/OK Panhandle.
1102 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure will control the weather into mid-week, providing partly to mostly sunny and mild days, along with mainly clear and seasonably cool nights.
17 (This evening through Tuesday) Currently high pressure extends from the mid-Atlantic states down into the northwest gulf region as a stalled front remains draped over the central gulf. High pressure in the Atlantic will be well off the eastern seaboard by this time. Late Tuesday into Wednesday morning high pressure to the ne will impede and split the moisture progression towards the northern gulf. The warm front and moisture will make it's way up from the gulf losing most of it's identity but keeping is's moisture.
More widespread rain and some thunderstorms are expected with this system as it pushes a cold front through the area late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Low level mass response will result in an increase in downsloping south-southwest winds across the central plains, and combined with adiabatic compression ahead of an approaching cold front will support afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s. Marginal fire weather conditions may arise as well, however the strongest winds will not be juxtaposed with the lowest dewpoints, and therefore no fire weather headlines are currently planned. Otherwise, strong north winds behind the front will usher in much cooler air, with lows ranging from the mid 40s northwest to low 50s southeast. However, the ECMWF and GFS differ on the degree of cold air behind this secondary front, with the GFS depicting the cooler solution.
1210 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday Night) For the first time in about a month, the region has finally transitioned back to a light SErly bndry lyr flow, as the sfc ridging over the TN valley SW into the Lower MS Valley has begun to retreat E of the region. The current forecast min temps reflects the lower end of guidance, which should work out as the elevated cigs will not be spreading deeper into E TX/NW LA/Srn AR until late, which should provide enough time to radiate out given the very light SE flow.
1232 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak upper level trough remains across the western CONUS and northern Mexico this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the lower 60s. On Tuesday, the upper level trough across the Desert Southwest will weaken, with an upper level low off the southern California coast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s.
110 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Canadian high pressure centered over the area will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
Another warm and humid night is in progress along the Florida Keys, with temperatures hovering in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s, along with steady east breezes near 10 mph. The area remains along the southern side of the subtropical ridge from the surface up through the mid levels, with easterly flow prevailing below 500 mb. Heading into the later part of the week, a deep mid-latitude trough progressing into the eastern CONUS will push the subtropical ridge eastward over the Atlantic, while driving a cold front through the Southeastern states and into Florida. This trough will pick up copious tropical moisture associated with a weak disturbance over the Bay of Campeche, transporting this moisture eastward into our region ahead of the southward moving front as heights fall due to the encroaching trough.
The area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to push to the northeast throughout the morning hours with some lull in activity expected during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
By the afternoon hours, we warm amply into the lower to middle 80's. Wednesday is a trickier temperature forecast depending on convective coverage, but presently anticipate highs in the lower to middle 80's. In addition to the trough, we start to get within the left exit region of the sub-tropical upper level jet stream helping to aid in overall lift over the area. Some hi-res model guidance this evening is suggesting a corridor of higher rainfall totals between 2 to 4 inches is possible, mainly in the vicinity of a stalling warm front.
Southerly winds will develop across the whole area today with warmer temperatures in the 70s to low 80s anticipated this afternoon. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday ahead of an approaching upper level trough and cold front, with highs reaching the mid 70s on the Plateau and low to mid 80s elsewhere. Activity will increase somewhat in coverage Wednesday evening as the cold front approaches from the northwest, but remain widely scattered in nature so only chance pops are warranted in the west with low likely pops in the east.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure centered over central Lower Michigan and a stalled frontal boundary draped across central IA/northern sections of IL and IN. Quiet conditions to persist over the region as high pressure retreats toward the eastern Great Lakes tonight. While these two features will not impact northeast WI directly on Tuesday, increasing south winds (gusting 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon) will pull gulf moisture quickly northward into the western Great Lakes, along with lifting the stalled frontal boundary north as a warm front. While a stray shower cannot be completely ruled out over east-central WI late in the day, current thinking is for precipitation chances to hold off until Tuesday night when the cold front approaches to add lift.
209 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Cold front has moved through NE Montana early this morning. As the upper trough moves into central Canada on Wednesday, it begins to dig into the northern plains with a jet streak streaming across eastern Montana.
242 AM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The weather will turn a bit more active day as a cold front now slicing it's way through Montana approaches and moves through the Cowboy State today. The front will bring cooler temperatures as well, mainly East of the Divide, but nothing unusual for the middle of October. With the slow moving pattern settling in across the US, WY will be pinned between the large trough spinning across the Northern Plains and the blocking ridge along the west coast.
These stronger southwesterly winds and drying conditions will lead to a sunnier and warmer day than the past few with temperatures rebounding into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
314 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Discussion/Marine - Warmth Ahead of Next System - Temperatures will be warmer than normal today as southerly winds become breezy ahead of our next system approaching from the southwest. Highs in the low 70s can be expected with increasing clouds into the afternoon. Additional shower and storm activity is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as the approaching trough and its associated cold front arrives.
1214 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Sfc and mid-level ridging will continue to shift eastward through the short term as a deepening H500 cyclone begins to move from the Northern Plains southeastward. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the northwest and move across the state on Wednesday.