Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1139 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Quiet weather today and tonight with a weak ridge transiting the region. Heavier mid level moisture moves in overnight with a few light showers over the higher terrain along the Wyoming border. Expect mostly sprinkles to light rain showers in the lower valleys ans light snow in the mountains Wednesday through the day and overnight before the system exits the area to the southeast. Look for light accumulations of snow with only a couple inches likely over the higher mountain passes along and west of the Continental Divide.
1011 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 50. Temperatures are nearly steady in the low to mid 50s under overcast skies. An upper low, currently anchored near the ArkLaTex region, will move slowly into the Lower Mississippi Valley through this afternoon. The low is progged to take a east-southeast track through central Mississippi through Wednesday morning. The upper low will lift out the region on Wednesday and upper level ridging will build in behind it through midweek. This will translate to a dry and warmer than normal temperature regime.
1141 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 A closed mid/upper-level cyclone across the Arklatex region earlier this morning will continue to shift east-southeastward today, becoming centered across northeastern LA/southwestern MS by 00Z. Coverage will slowly decrease as the low moves eastward, however wrap around precip will keep rainfall well into the day on Wednesday (before finally tapering off in the afternoon).
No precipitation is expected through tonight, with the best moisture for clouds north of the bridge. Real late tonight/a few hours before sunrise will bring the potential for fog/freezing fog with dewpoints a few degrees below freezing and low level moisture stuck under a strong inversion. Otherwise temperatures will only fall to a couple degrees on either side of freezing, thanks to the southerly flow. High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now Pattern Synopsis: Broad, low-amplitude ridging will slide over the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a closed upper-level low pivots across the SE CONUS and into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak cyclone will trek across Ontario and Quebec heading into the end of the week.
with low temperatures expected to stay above freezing in all but the typically coldest spots to start the day on Wednesday. While a cold front is then expected to reach central Nebraska by late morning or early afternoon.
Latest water vapor imagery shows that the upper level low that has influenced the weather over the past 24 hours is moving out of the state to the east as a zonal/weak ridging pattern then establishes over the area. With the drier dew points and winds becoming light under clear skies, expect a slightly cooler night where overnight lows fall generally into the mid 40s. The low-lying valleys within the Hill Country, which often see the most cold air drainage on the clear nights, could fall into the 30s.
Temperatures in our CWA could be a tale of two halves with cooler and foggy conditions in eastern maritime locations with high clouds and warmer conditions across the west. NAM soundings show dew point temps creeping above freezing overnight across the west which could result in some shallow advection fog for locations favored by south- southwesterly upslope. Locations favored by southerly downsloping may get even warmer whereas locations downwind of Lake MI may not warm above 40F.
The closed mid/upper-level cyclone discussed earlier today is expected to become increasingly cutoff from the polar westerlies overnight, and drift very slowly eastward across southern MS. However, it does appear as if precipitation intensity will gradually increase beginning early this evening, as the period from 00-12Z will be when synoptic scale ascent attendant to the cyclone aloft will be maximized. However, as the upper low lifts northeastward across central AL, a pocket of cold air aloft will lead to modest destabilization during the afternoon hours, during the peak of the diurnal warming cycle. Lingering afternoon convection should end across northeast AL shortly after sunset, as the mid/upper low begins to open into trough and accelerate northeastward into western NC.
156 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 We will continue to deal with our closed upper low the next day or so. This low is currently over AR/LA, and will slowly wobble east, passing just south of the mid-state through Wed night. Deep moisture and better dynamics will stay well south but this low will spread increasing numbers of showers into the area later today and tonight, especially across the south. On Thu this upper low will be well east, and an upper ridge will quickly slip by. This system looks more organized with a tight SFC/LL low and a decent upper trough that goes a bit negative late Fri.
Discussion: Currently a stacked low pressure system is traversing across the Gulf States on it's way towards the Carolinas. This has made temperature forecasting today a bit tricky with southeast TN being one of the cooler spots and northeast TN and southwest VA being several degrees warmer. 75" with the highest amounts still expected to be in southeast TN and southwest NC.
NBM ProbMaxT even pinpoints a nonzero chance of reaching 90F across the far SE Panhandle, but at the moment it looks like we will remain shy of this given increasing high-level cloud cover ahead of the approaching upper trough axis limiting max insolation. /DWK Wednesday night we'll see low level winds back to the south and increase as a strong low-level jet develops in response to the next upper level trough moving over the 4-corners region.
The convection will be associated with an upper trough and weak cold front.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 62 49 70 50 / 80 80 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 63 47 69 47 / 50 70 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 63 47 70 48 / 40 70 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 61 46 66 45 / 10 70 50 10 0.
A cold front will move across the region tonight and push the atmospheric river out of the area and cause the snow levels to drop down to the valley floor.
The Low is at this writing, spinning along the Red River around ARKLATEX, with its attendant thunder/lightning extending as far north as the Little Rock, AR area. That said, hires modeling produces splotchy pcpn across the FA this morning, as the Low moves toward the MS river. Tonight-Tmrw, the Low further spills southeast-ward as it fills.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will keep things stable in the short term.
350 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (Issued 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Quiet weather will continue tonight as high pressure slowly exits to the east. Southwest winds will pick up tomorrow ahead of approaching low pressure, bringing even milder conditions to southern Wisconsin. Winds look more south than southwest in the northeast forecast area, which may keep cooler conditions near the lake.
A well-defined and occluding low pressure disturbance is propagating eastward across the Central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, a line of convection extends across the Gulf of Mexico and down towards the Yucatan Peninsula, aided by the large-scale forcing ahead of the parent feature. As the low nears, upper level winds have also been increasing. The higher values are providing an increasingly sheared environment to sustain convection. Beyond tomorrow, some slightly drier, but really no cooler air settles over the peninsula.
We are expecting this trend to continue through the early evening hours; a disturbance aloft will keep mid-level winds strong, and a low pressure center at the surface will move east along the Canadian border, which will strengthen the pressure gradient sufficiently enough to translate those mid-level winds to the surface. Will therefore continue the High Wind Warning as is through 9 pm. The broad large-scale upper level trough that contains the disturbance will move into Montana overnight, keeping light rain and snow showers likely over the Continental Divide and across much of southwest Montana. Lingering wind overnight will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal, but the passage of the trough on Wednesday will cool afternoon temperatures back closer to normal.
A cut-off mid level low in the southern stream is slowly progressing eastward across the lower MS Valley. Increasing cloudiness today as moisture increases in the low levels and upper levels with mid levels last to moisten. A warm front will develop over south FL this evening and lift northward across central FL just as this forcing and convective complex reaches us. And there may be a tornado or two where low level helicities are maximized near the warm front. Winds will veer SE to S tonight as a warm front lifts north across the waters and the pressure gradient will ease allowing winds to decrease 10-15 knots.
325 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 An upper low was over the lower MS Valley region this afternoon with variable cloud cover lifting north over the area. As the low tracks east across the Gulf Coast states tonight, slightly better moisture in a quasi-deformation region will move over west KY by Wednesday morning. After that, quiet, dry weather is forecast as s/wv ridging moves over the area ahead of the next upper level system that should be over the southern Plains by 00z Fri. Went a little warmer for highs Wednesday, otherwise stayed pretty close to guidance in the short term.
Forecast Key Points: - High to Very High Fire Danger Wednesday - Multiple Chances for Widespread Rainfall - Seasonable Temperatures through the Weekend As of 230 PM Tuesday afternoon, a beautiful early-spring afternoon was ongoing with surface ridging across the region. A midlevel trough axis, currently off the CA coast, will come ashore Wednesday and amplify with eastern extent.
314 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through sunset.
A cold front will brush northeastern Arizona on Wednesday and Wednesday night with chances of rain or snow showers mainly from The Grand Canyon to the White Mountains northward.
Upper low is near Texarkana and heading eastbound to Atlanta, but with no Smokey in pursuit it will go much slower than the Bandit and the Snowman.
* TEMPS REST OF WEEK: The passage of an upper level trough Thu will pull some cooler air back across the region - but not that cold. * THU/FRI STORM SYSTEM: hit, miss, glancing blow? The GFS and EC remain in good agreement with lifting an upper level trough northeast out of the desert southwest Wed night, pushing across the mid mississippi river valley by 00z Sat. * ACTIVE START TO NEW WEEK? The EC and GFS both progging an upper level trough shifting from the desert SW to across the nation's mid section on Tue. Winds will diminish by the end of this TAF period as a cold front moves through, shifting winds to the west to northwest.
As this occurs, the ridge centered off the mid-Atlantic coast is being shunted eastward. Therefore will maintain the low chance pops currently in the forecast.
(The rest of tonight) Clearing skies in the wake of the upper low moving away from the region will likely set the stage for fog development tonight into Wednesday morning in some areas. The latest short term guidance is pointing to the lower Arkansas and Red River Valleys for dense fog development, with patchy fog possible elsewhere across southeast Oklahoma up into western Arkansas. This area received wrap-around rainfall from the upper low earlier today and has higher dewpoints, so it does make sense. If signal persists in the data this evening, a dense fog advisory may be issued for areas with the highest confidence of dense fog development.
High resolution model output still hints at showery conditions behind the cold front overnight into tomorrow morning, but chances of measurable precipitation above a trace should be minimal.
236 PM PDT Tue Mar 15 2022 A cold front sweeps through the region today, with scattered showers and gusty winds. Breezy winds across the Basin will slowly decrease through the evening as the gradient behind the cold front loosens. Tonight and Wednesday: A ridge will start to build overnight and bringing a break before the another round of systems for the end of the week.
A cold front and associated valley rain and mountain snow showers will move through central Nevada this evening. Significant accumulating snow in valley areas is not expected with just a few inches in the higher mountain ranges through Wednesday morning. A cold front and attendant band of lower elevation rain and mountain snow will continue east-southeastern into central Nevada through this evening. Snow totals do not look too impressive with 1-3 inches along the higher ranges with snow levels remaining quite high. Temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler than today with highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday.
843 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 An upper level low pressure system continues to track across the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight. Currently, low pressure was centered over south Mississippi. As this low continue to moves slowly east along the Gulf coast tonight, areas of light rain will continue to move across the region with the best chance of rain over southern and eastern sections of the Mid- South. Temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than normal for mid-March with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Just removing a mention of freezing rain for northern Valley county for early tomorrow. High resolution model output still hints at showery conditions behind the cold front overnight into tomorrow morning, but chances of measurable precipitation above a trace should be minimal.
with some Freezing fog possible. CMiller (Issued 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Quiet weather will continue tonight as high pressure slowly exits to the east. Southwest winds will pick up tomorrow ahead of approaching low pressure, bringing even milder conditions to southern Wisconsin. Winds look more south than southwest in the northeast forecast area, which may keep cooler conditions near the lake.
There is a signal for light fog late tonight/Wed AM, but Flow is in a non traditional direction and with low pressure (rather than surface ridging) and insulation from cloud cover confidence is low in more than lighter fog impacts. Temps in that situation are more likely to remain above freezing due to insulation but not be as warm as NBM is showing "dampening" our high forecast a bit. Some models are hinting at that potential along the Canadian border, but the lowest winds should be east of the Red River Valley.
A closed upper low spins over the lower Mississippi River Valley at this hour, and will only slowly move across the Gulf Coast states tonight into tomorrow. Upper low is near Texarkana and heading eastbound to Atlanta, but with no Smokey in pursuit it will go much slower than the Bandit and the Snowman.
We are expecting lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s. With temperatures near freezing, this could mean icy bridges etc.
A cutoff low pressure system is spinning over SW MS/NE LA and is slowly tracking to the east. Expect additional shower development overnight due to synoptic lift along the outer edges of the low pressure system. However, as the upper low lifts northeastward across central AL, a pocket of cold air aloft will lead to modest destabilization during the afternoon hours, during the peak of the diurnal warming cycle. Lingering afternoon convection should end across northeast AL shortly after sunset, as the mid/upper low begins to open into trough and accelerate northeastward into western NC.
822 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Tonight low pressure will move toward the area with rain chances will increasing through daybreak.
554 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving across the region generally from west to east ahead of an approaching trough.
As of 5PM, our post-cold front showers have begun to show signs of weakening. Surface dewpoints were in the upper 30s and low 40s this afternoon, but have tumbled into the low to mid 30s.
MVFR CIGS will continue through tomorrow morning, before the low eventually ejects east through the mid day tomorrow.
A cold front and associated valley rain and mountain snow showers will move through central Nevada this evening. Significant accumulating snow in valley areas is not expected with just a few inches in the higher mountain ranges through Wednesday morning. A cold front and associated valley rain and mountain snow showers will move through central Nevada this evening. Significant accumulating snow in valley areas is not expected with just a few inches in the higher mountain ranges through Wednesday morning. A cold front and attendant band of lower elevation rain and mountain snow will continue east-southeastern into central Nevada through this evening. Snow totals do not look too impressive with 1-3 inches along the higher ranges with snow levels remaining quite high. Temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler than today with highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday.
We will continue to deal with our closed upper low the next day or so. This low is currently over AR/LA, and will slowly wobble east, passing just south of the mid-state through Wed night. Deep moisture and better dynamics will stay well south but this low will spread increasing numbers of showers into the area later today and tonight, especially across the south. On Thu this upper low will be well east, and an upper ridge will quickly slip by. This system looks more organized with a tight SFC/LL low and a decent upper trough that goes a bit negative late Fri.
Winds continue to be breezy this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the pressure gradient remains relatively tight ahead of the trough. Gusts 35 to 45 mph in the typical windy spots will be common through sunset, and places like the west side of Clark, WY and Outer Drive in Casper could see gusts in the low 50 mph range. Widespread cloud cover is forecast to persist out west into the day Wednesday, with daytime temperatures on Wednesday being 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those felt today.
/Issued 336 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022/ Stacked low pressure is situated near the Arklatex. Regional radar shows widespread precipitation ahead of the low overspreading the western CWA. However, do think scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely tomorrow with the support of the upper low.
632 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Current conditions across the region are characterized by mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s with nearly calm winds. Temperatures will be warmer tonight than last night, with lows primarily in the low 40s. As the closed mid level low currently over Arkansas scoots off to the east tomorrow, west southwesterly mid level flow sets in in response to an approaching trough across the Desert Southwest.
1014 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Low pressure will head east across the Deep South on Wednesday before heading northeast across the Carolinas and bring rain to the area by Wednesday night.
Our main feature in the short term period will be a closed upper level low passing by to our southeast. The low is currently over the lower Mississippi Valley, with KY being in a col between the low and the more northerly prevailing westerlies aloft. The low will move slowly eastward across the Deep South through the day Wednesday, with deep moisture spiraling around it making its way northward into the JKL forecast area. The upper low will be weakening and starting to open up as it turns northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Wednesday night.
730 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
756 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday, with a few showers.
The trough that brought widespread rain and snow for the start of the day has pushed off to the east. We will see clearing skies overnight as short wave ridging builds in.
632 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will keep things stable in the short term.
As such, I have cancelled the High Wind Warning that was previously in effect through 9 PM MDT. We are expecting this trend to continue through the early evening hours; a disturbance aloft will keep mid-level winds strong, and a low pressure center at the surface will move east along the Canadian border, which will strengthen the pressure gradient sufficiently enough to translate those mid-level winds to the surface. Will therefore continue the High Wind Warning as is through 9 pm. The broad large-scale upper level trough that contains the disturbance will move into Montana overnight, keeping light rain and snow showers likely over the Continental Divide and across much of southwest Montana. Lingering wind overnight will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal, but the passage of the trough on Wednesday will cool afternoon temperatures back closer to normal.
207 PM PDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Upper trough is bringing cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover to the area today.
Showers will gradually expand over the west late this afternoon and evening, spreading east through tonight as an upper trough and associated cold front move through the region. Snow showers can be expected above 6000 feet, with rain showers over the lower elevations. Generally a tenth of an inch or less of rainfall can be expected across the lower elevations, with locally higher totals possible. Cooler conditions and breezy northwest winds will prevail behind the cold front on Wednesday, with rain/snow showers lingering over the area under unstable northwest flow. As we stay under the influence of slight ridging and otherwise zonal westerly flow aloft, expect generally breezy afternoons.
841 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
349 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Upper level ridging has moved in behind the exiting trough with zonal flow through tonight. The trough is currently pushing east across the Pacific and will move into the Great Basin by Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation is expected to fall as snow over the higher terrain with a mix in the foothills and rain for areas below 7000ft. Temperatures for Wednesday will be closer to seasonal normals with the aid of a frontal push bringing highs back into the 50s for the plains and 30s to 40s for the high country/foothills.
This, combined with the clear slot on the southwest side of the low that pushed across the region yesterday, has allowed some patchy fog to begin developing in a few locations. MVFR CIGS will continue through tomorrow morning, before the low eventually ejects east through the mid day tomorrow.
A warm front will develop over south FL this evening and lift northward across central FL just as mid/upper level forcing and convective complex over the Gulf reaches ECFL. A SE sea breeze along the coast will increase the low level shear as incoming storms interact with the boundary late in the day. Strong wind gusts will again be possible and possible large hail Wed aftn with even cooler temps aloft. This, in part, in response to a warm front lifting northward tonight across the area. There will be a lull Wed morning and early aftn then additional storms should develop over the peninsula ahead of an advancing cold front and push offshore during the mid to late aftn and early eve.
An upper low was over the lower MS Valley region this afternoon with variable cloud cover lifting north over the area. As the low tracks east across the Gulf Coast states tonight, slightly better moisture in a quasi-deformation region will move over west KY by Wednesday morning. After that, quiet, dry weather is forecast as s/wv ridging moves over the area ahead of the next upper level system that should be over the southern Plains by 00z Fri. Went a little warmer for highs Wednesday, otherwise stayed pretty close to guidance in the short term. Surace high pressure will bring VFR conditions with light winds.