Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
115 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
1208 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EAST TEXAS. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. AFTER A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED OVER THE LOWER AND MARQUESAS KEYS CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AREAS THAT BACKED NORTHERLY WERE CAPPED IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. FLUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. DIMINISHING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 60 WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY.
Tonight return flow will increase especially across our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO KEEP IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT IS REDUCED BY THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER.
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF NORTHERN GA. AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
318 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EAST TEXAS IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROF. /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER FOR THE COMING WEEK. LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PHASE IN FROM THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. DIRTIED UP A BIT BY A WEAK LOW MEANDERING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
/ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE NAM IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM. WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
Overnight lows should be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night due to a combination of a warm start to the day, continued low-level WAA, and mid/high clouds.
1256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, on the eastern side of a broad, upper-lvl ridge off the west coast. To the north, a trough is traversing the U. /Canadian border, and will send a cold front thru the region Sunday.
345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THERE ARE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE LOW COULD KEEP A LOT OF THE PRECIP FURTHER EAST SO WILL WAIT UNTIL 12Z MODEL RUNS COME IN. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
A dry and tranquil weather pattern will prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday. This will amplify the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the new week. The first chance arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage of a strong cold front.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT.
300 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
236 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and eastern US.
light winds are expected to become more southerly before shifting back out of the west Sunday morning ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The cold front is forecast to be near BVO toward the end of the TAF period. The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this low. winds are expected to shift out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER COLUMN AND SOME CONSIDERATION FOR WET-BULB COOLING UNDER VIRGA MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES TROUGH, AND ALSO ON THE VERY OUTER EDGES OF A DEEP OFFSHORE CYCLONE.
/issued 335 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ (Today and Tonight) As another cold front continues to move south across Texas, expect gusty winds from the northwest and elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
1007 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT BUT CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH.
1137 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SHARP RIDGE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM ACTIVE HUDSON BAY LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE WISE MONDAY. AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SOUTH WINDS MONDAY WILL PULL SOME OF THIS COOLER NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
913 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
1247 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WITH PASSING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL TROUGH. INITIAL SURFACE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND.
1016 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUPELO TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT.
646 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA 18Z-00Z WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA 00Z-06Z BUT UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AFTER 06Z WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
1009 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
The sky will remain largely cloud free tonight with winds becoming light across the region as the ridge builds into the area. Cooler pockets may manifest themselves overnight, especially across the ern Ozarks. Areas further W into central MO shud stay warmer as winds shud remain a little higher across this area. Tilly Ridge over the eastern Seaboard on Tuesday combined with deepening low pressure over the Great Plains will turn the wind to the south- southeast. Models are in good agreement with the high amplitude pattern developing over the CONUS.
this afternoon as broad scale upper ridging continues to approach in advance of a trough now working through the Pacific Northwest.
957 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MORNING LOWS ON TUE WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE ACROSS THE CWA WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUN IS SUPPORTING PASSING SHOWERS AND EVEN AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE STATE. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
723 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/OK PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO WORK THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH EVEN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT.
A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early afternoon. While temperatures had warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was beginning to filter in from the north.
725 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 A COLD NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
/61/ A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING.
1003 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH N WINDS AROUND 10KT AND SKC OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATER TIMING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP (WITH INITIAL SNOW MIX) COINCIDENT WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. BIGGER P-TYPE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW ACROSS NW MN (CLOSER TO THE BAUDETTE AREA) WITH DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCED PRECIP AS MID-UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD FRONT/COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
844 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN IN THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70 AREA WIDE AT 800 PM.
1150 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
Latest visible satellite shows an extensive area of strato-cumulus over the lower Great Lakes. The low dewpoints and light winds tonight add confidence for temperatures to reach the 28 to 32 degree range where the current Freeze Warning exists. Look for highs in the low to mid 50s. Another chilly night is expected Tuesday night with lows in the low 40s to the mid 30s across the northern Bluegrass. For now, readings look to stay above freezing in those areas.
818 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
639 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SHARP RIDGE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM ACTIVE HUDSON BAY LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE WISE MONDAY. AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SOUTH WINDS MONDAY WILL PULL SOME OF THIS COOLER NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW AND S CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUE. THROUGH TUE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE ON THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION MOSTLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. FOR TONIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE FALLING MOSTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAYBE 4 TO 5 DEGREES F COOLER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW 80S.
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING MAINLY TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAYBE 4 TO 5 DEGREES F COOLER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW 80S.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LAST SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A FEW MORE HOURS. A REX BLOCK WILL SET UP OFF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR 13OW AND THE LOW WAY SOUTH AROUND 25N 130W. WHERE THE HIGH WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE VERY MILD OVER THE RIDGES DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
COLD FRONT FIXING TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM OUT OF EASTERN KY AS NOTED BY WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE. CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED TO MATCH LATEST OBS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 64 41 65 / 10 0 0 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 59 37 64 / 10 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 38 59 37 65 / 10 0 0 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 53 30 63 / 30 0 0 20 TN.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN UTAH TODAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SLIDING THROUGH TENNESSEE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS IDAHO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DID DEVELOP IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY MOVED QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT.
Overnight, with high pressure moving across the Great Lakes, the southward extending ridge axis will traverse the region. Quiet weather Tuesday with the high moving east and gradual return flow setting up.
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. /61/ A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING.
717 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT BUT CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE STATE WL BRING CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ A weak cold front.
745 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
903 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRUNG ACROSS NORTHERN MS THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FROPA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE REGION WAS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW AVG INTO SAT.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CAME TROUGH YESTERDAY IN TANDEM WITH A TROUGH AT 850-700 MB RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERRUNNING RAINS THROUGHOUT TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. SO WILL NEED TO SPLIT THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE FOR CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 90 DEGREES.
/ISSUED 1016 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUPELO TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OUR GENERAL VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S.
MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY 06Z AS REGION COMES UNDER INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.
1138 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATER TIMING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP (WITH INITIAL SNOW MIX) COINCIDENT WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. BIGGER P-TYPE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW ACROSS NW MN (CLOSER TO THE BAUDETTE AREA) WITH DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCED PRECIP AS MID-UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD FRONT/COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS.