Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL SPREAD LATERALLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONUS. WILL LEAN OVER TO THE NORTHEAST ABOVE OUR SPLITTING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE COOLER FRI NIGHT.
801 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER FAIR SKIES.
A dry layer in the lowest 5-10kft has been formidable, eating up much of the moisture that has streamed over the region thus far. In the low levels, east to southeast flow (typically a rather dry flow) has been persistent thus far. An inverted trough will develop in the low levels which will shift winds to the northeast and induce frontogenesis as we head into Friday and Friday not. The rain will develop as a result of a deep moisture plume being directed into the region on the eastern periphery of an upper level trough across the southern Plains. Expect an increase in rainfall rates heading into the afternoon and evening as embedded short wave trough now in the western Gulf pushes north toward southern Missouri.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY UNDER PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. ARE STILL PAINTING THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.
CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND THINK THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST.
620 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE CWA WAS WEDGED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW OVER SD AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON. THE LOW TO THE NW IS EXPECTED TO SWING SE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MERGE WITH A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH TO BRING US CLOUDS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
640 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL BE POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A RELATIVE WEAKNESS ALOFT WELL NORTHEAST OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MINOR COOLING TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA LATER. AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL KEEP US MIXED AND THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA WILL GET BELOW FREEZING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING.
DO NOT BELIEVE MODELS HAVE RESOLVED THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/LIFT WELL TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND DEPART THE AREA.
642 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS CLOUD TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN. THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE CAA REGIME. TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.
A dry cold front will push through the terminals Friday afternoon with northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph expected. The upper air pattern across the US shows a ridge along the West Coast. a deep trough in the Central US and a ridge along the East Coast. An upper low will form over West Texas and retrograde SW through Mexico to near Southern Baja by Sat morning.
736 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY UNDER PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. ARE STILL PAINTING THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.
942 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A BACKDOOR DOOR COLD FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT NUDGES INTO EXTREME NE FL.
MORE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SFC DEWPTS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND AXIS OF 40 TO 45 DEGREE DEWPTS NOT THAT FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
1118 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
1054 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS CLOUD TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN. THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE CAA REGIME. TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.
/ISSUED 247 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015/ 500MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE REGION AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. 850MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
75 /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE TRENDS IN CEILINGS AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINS NEARBY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST.
MOST RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING EJECTING NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS. STILL THINK THE 2-6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHERN STREAM TROF PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY. -KT UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
629 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 /00Z TAFS/ MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE TRENDS IN CEILINGS AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINS NEARBY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST.
WHERE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SRN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD INTO THE BAJA REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW BEGINS MOVING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE AND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ZONES ALONG THE DVD THROUGH FRI. MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE WRF KEEP THE LOWLANDS MOSTLY DRY. SO STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 56 51 69 / 80 90 100 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 59 50 69 / 80 90 90 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 56 50 68 / 80 90 100 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 57 48 67 / 60 90 100 60.
826 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGINNING MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT SOME OF THE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND BECOME MAINLY OPAQUE IN THE AFTERNOON.
243 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CURRENTLY INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OCEAN LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS EVENING THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. LATE TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
357 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.
DUE TO H8 WAA AND A WEAK SFC TROF. A S/W TROF OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF AND H8 WAA SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF FAR NE WI EARLY IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. AND WEAK WAA AHEAD OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MILDER READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
1234 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. FAIR AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERMAL INVERSION AT AROUND 2500 FEET AGL SHOULD HOLD THE LOW STRATUS IN THROUGH AND PERHAPS BEYOND DAYBREAK. I WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT.
225 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.
258 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015 SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE WELCOME NEWS FOR MANY AND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE A FLAT WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL BRING WEAK COLD FRONTS. THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WHICH MEANS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
314 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO NE OK AND NW AR YESTERDAY IS SWEEPING ACROSS AS I TYPE. STILL SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER SE OK INTO W CENTRAL AR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
82/JLD A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TROUGH THE NIGHT.
A TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWPACK IS NOTED OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND TEMPS HAVE GOTTEN ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE VALLEY. SHARP RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND VERY DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH QUIET DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
805 PM PST WED JAN 14 2015 High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest through Thursday morning.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST. QUIET WX AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
Mostly sunny skies have spread across the forecast area today as broad upper trof from the Great Lakes through the southwest move slowly east. Thursday brings another weak ripple through the trof over the state and a thermal ridge along with it, and have gone with highs a few degrees above guidance here. As thermal ridge spreads over the plains, temps above the surface increase to near 8C.
THE INITIAL ONSET MAY BE MIXED-PHASE BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WETBULB TO AROUND FREEZING GIVEN RATHER LARGE T/TD SPREADS. THIS INITIAL WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS SSE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT.
211 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TODAY. PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
BUT EXPECT ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 3 AND 9 KFT. /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015/ UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN U. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROF APPROACHES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ISSUE WITH FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL FINALLY SPELL SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION FRIDAY.
High pressure aloft continues to provide dry and milder conditions.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED/BELOW FREEZING LAYER POSSIBLY CONDUCIVE TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN. THE RAP AND 00 UTC NAM SOUNDINGS AT MINOT SUGGEST FOR THURSDAY THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C AND FEW ICE CRYSTALS ENTERING THE LAYER FROM ABOVE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN GET CLOSE TO 50 JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGES. THIS WILL CAUSE LEE TROFFING TO DEEPEN AND INCREASE THE WINDS IN RESPONSE MAINLY AROUND THE SE WY MTNS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
336 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS THE LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS WEST TEXAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SINKING UPPER-TROUGH. THIS DESPITE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY.
1204 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TOMORROW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
1119 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA NEW MEXICO. IN THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LEFT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND SHOULD ALLOW MIXING TO OCCUR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK FOLLOWING CURRENT TRENDS OF WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
311 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015 IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW STRATUS DEPARTING EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S AREA WIDE. DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING INTO INCREASINGLY WARMER MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
1240 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
115 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD SOME MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. SO STILL EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS LONG AS THE WEDGE HOLDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ARE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
An upper level trough will rotate through the area early tomorrow morning however height rises on Thursday will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will remain in the low to mid 30s as winds remain out of the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front.
218 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 4 AND 9 KFT. /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015/ UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN U. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROF APPROACHES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ISSUE WITH FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL FINALLY SPELL SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS MOST PLACES HAVE ONLY DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THEIR AFTERNOON MAXES.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OFFSHORE.
THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TO THE FREEZING MARK OR BELOW. THIS SAME ZONE HAS ALSO BECOME SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE WHEN PRECIP IS MENTIONED. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE WET BULB EFFECT AS THE LOW LEVELS STAY VERY DRY INITIALLY.
The axis of the positively tilted trough currently over the Texas panhandle will move east to the central Gulf coast by tonight. Despite the high PoPs, rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.
932 PM MST WED JAN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT. WHILE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST OF THE RIVER. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THIS EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BY A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING, MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW CLOUD/FOG AREAS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND NUDGED SOME LOW TEMPS UP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. THUS DECREASED THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN KITTITAS COUNTY AND WESTERN YAKIMA COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGHING AND NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL OPEN UP AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO WEST TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES WITH OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT. THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS ALONG WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROF ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL IN NATURE THIS WEEKEND. BELIEVE ECMMOS HIGHS ARE FOR THE MOST PART MORE REASONABLE THAN COOLER MET/MAV GUIDANCE. ECMMOS IS ADVERTISING THE SRN CWA REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
1252 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NEAR I-70 TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AN UPR LVL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST WITH THE WESTERN END STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST.
233 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
327 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
1252 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE.
245 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.
355 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY.