Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
306 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 (Tonight and Today) An upper trough over the western states today will dig south and close off over the southern California/western Arizona by tomorrow afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will begin to mover over the area tomorrow with highs ranging form the lower 80s over the western CWA to the mid 80s over the eastern CWA where there will be less cloud cover. Cooler and wetter conditions are on the way. This afternoon's water vapor loop shows an energetic upper trough continuing to churn across the western part of the country, with one upper-level low located over northern Nevada, and another low near Los Angeles.
THINK WE SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHS WE HAVE GOING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA ON TUESDAY.
337 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Low pressure in far western Kansas and high pressure in the southeastern CONUS have maintained a strong pressure gradient across the local area. The increased cloud cover will be in response to an incoming short wave trough and enhanced isentropic ascent in the mid levels. Will then have another day of gusty and warm conditions with highs in the lower 80s and winds gusting to 30 mph.
350 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
247 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A NICE WARM UP TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
341 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING CONTINUED HEAT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AND MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY SFC WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES. UPPER RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF ON THURSDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO NEAR 593DAM. WHICH SHOULD BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO BRING THE SOUTH MONSOONAL FLOW. IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN THE DRY AIR WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COOLER AIR MASS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
313 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CENTER SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US A SUNNY DAY. AS EXPECTED THERE HAS BEEN NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ITSELF. BUT THEN OVERNIGHT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS /EXTENDING FROM UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC/ WILL PRODUCE NEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING INTO FINGER LAKES-CENTRAL NY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CLEARING OUR AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GIVE US A PICTURE PERFECT DAY THURSDAY. 850 TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TEENS SO TEMP WISE WE WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL (MAINLY 70S).
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN MD AND BACK TO SW VA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS LEAD TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES TODAY AND INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH BUT WOULDN'T DISCOUNT A SHOWER MAKING IT TO NOVA AND DC. IT SHOULD FEEL LIKE MID- SEPTEMBER TODAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 80S TO 70S IN THE MTNS. SHOWERS DISSPATE BY SUNSET AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
558 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. STORY FOR TODAY IS MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH GREAT LAKES ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH. BLOCKED/SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID/ULVL PATTERN TO START AS RIDGE CENTROID MOVES INTO DESERT SW BY THIS WEEKEND.
534 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
341 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 The upper ridge that has been persistent across the region the last several days, will slowly move NW today and become anchored near the NM/CO border through the end of the week. 850mb thermal ridge will edge slightly westward and surface temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler then yesterday, yet remain above normal for this time of year. A mid-level theta-e axis, embedded in the eastern side of the upper ridge, will return later today and by Thursday afternoon PWATs are forecasted to increase to near 1.
347 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPR RIDGE WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THAT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX/OK WILL YIELD A PERSISTENT FEED OF MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME PERIOD TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN THE REST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND GENERALLY BETTER DYNAMICS. THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WARMER AND MORE CAPPED LATER IN THE WEEK. ALL MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
325 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DUE TO DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE TOP THE RIDGE. STARTED THE TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS WELL /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/.
332 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IOWA THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE HIGH OVERHEAD. SOME MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED UNDER THE HIGH AROUND 5 KFT AND HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL COME ASHORE IN PAC NW BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE.
157 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
639 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENT AXIS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUND COUNTIES SOUTHWEST TO THE CRYSTAL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. MAINTAINED FCST REASONING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL COASTAL TROUGH BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS COASTAL AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
344 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015 A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE RULE THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL STRIP WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING OVER THE REGION AS WELL FOR MUCH OF TODAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE OFF THE NORCAL COAST AND THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 40N 130W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A JOG TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST. DRY AIR EAST OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THE SMOKE AWAY FROM THE HIGHWAY. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO LAND AND USHERS IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB TEMPERATURES. ANOMALY TABLES SUGGEST THE SOUTH TO NORTH WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY REPRESENT A TOP 5 TO 10 PERCENT EVENT FOR MID AUGUST.
628 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
Thursday is anticipated to be another very warm day as temperatures climb a few degrees warmer.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST PROVIDING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPENING EASTERN U. UPPER TROUGH. 925 AND 850 MB TEMPS COOLED A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK AS APPROACHING MID- LEVEL WAVE FLATTENS THE 850 MB RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE RAISING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER BY 00Z THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS BEFORE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT SO LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO ONLY COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND RETROGRADE IN THE WESTERN U. TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA TODAY AND INTO NE FL ON THU. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RESULT FROM THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING FRONT.
124 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 50S. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
337 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE FORECAST FOR LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL ON TRACK AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT RELATIVELY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
150 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NC INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH 09Z. BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
125 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRIER WITH COOLER NIGHTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT.
500 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 AN UPPER TROF WILL KEEP PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DELIVER COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION TODAY. LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINALLY STEEP DUE TO COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT AUGUST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS SOME 10+ DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN SPOTS. H5 TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z FRI. WITH MAXES REACHING THE MID 70S NORTH AND THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
324 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 Dry conditions are expected to continue for the next several days as upper-level high pressure expands and builds across southern High Plains and into the desert southwest. Monsoonal moisture lifting northward across the eastern Rockies will generally continue to fall well west of the forecast as it rounds the ridge; far enough that even cold pool driven expansion should not threaten the CWA through at least Thursday.
543 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
An upper level ridge axis extended north northwest of the upper low to eastern Montana. An upper level trough was located over south central Colorado. extensive cloud cover may again muddle the high temperature forecast, as occurred today and temperatures should be at or below normal. The upper ridge over the central and southern rockies will continue to amplify, resulting in vorticity disturbances shifted farther north across the northern plains. however, the GFS and ECMWF show a vigorous wave during the weekend moving through the northern states, effectively flattening the upper ridge and returning zonal flow aloft to the central high plains. this setup will result in low pressure across western kansas just ahead of an approaching baroclinic zone/frontal boundary by early to mid week, and a return to convective chances.
WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM ACROSS MID TN IN THE LOWER/MID 60S RANGE. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS OVER TEXAS EXPANDS WEST.
343 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND EASTWARD AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. UL TROF AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NY AND ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UL TROF WILL RECEDE AND DE-AMPLIFY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. WITH THE TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN NY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
328 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
319 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move through the Concho Valley this morning, approaching the Interstate 10 corridor this afternoon and becoming diffuse. Although weak, this front will result in slightly cooler temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
AT LEAST THE STRONG UPPER CONTNENTAL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE HAS RETREATED WESTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE EAST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THE WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY FRONTOLYTIC PROCESS. 24/RR THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE THE SLOW WESTWARD PASSAGE OF A CUT-OFF LOW STRUCTURE ALOFT THAT PINCHES OFF THE BASE OF TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD COME UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA RIDGE FOR A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN FOR MID AUGUST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE EC CONTINUED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS IN THE MODELS AND WITH THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL COME OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OUT WEST AND OVER OUR REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
334 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
337 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE VIEW FROM SATELLITES DEPICTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH IS BLOCKING A UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC JUST WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BLOCKS ANY MOMENTUM TO SHIFT THE PATTERN. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN THE TROUGH EXTENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THE MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE COL REGION REMAINING NEARBY PROVIDING VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
222 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NC INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH 09Z. BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS CERTAINLY A GOOD SIGN THAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPEDE THE INTRUSION OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THIS AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION BEFORE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
1201 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA INTO NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IN MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND NW ONTARIO. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER FOR HIGHS. SO FELT CONFIDENT IN INCREASING THE HIGHS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES. WITH A LEANING TO THE WARMER GFSMOS/NAMMOS/NAM12 GUIDANCE. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
330 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. AT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WAS SITUATED FROM KS N-NE ACROSS WESTERN IA INTO MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
1243 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
101 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY PUSH IT BACK INLAND. SOME DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
419 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. STORY FOR TODAY IS MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH GREAT LAKES ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH. BLOCKED/SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID/ULVL PATTERN TO START AS RIDGE CENTROID MOVES INTO DESERT SW BY THIS WEEKEND.
VERY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE A HAIR WARMER WITH UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
301 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NC INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH 09Z. BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
407 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE MEAN H5 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
340 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015 A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE RULE THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL STRIP WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING OVER THE REGION AS WELL FOR MUCH OF TODAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST. ALTHOUGH OUR AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE OFF THE NORCAL COAST AND THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY ENCROACH ON OUR AREA AND BECOME OUR DOMINANT FEATURE THIS WEEKEND. SOME DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH AS IT BUILDS WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
241 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 1022MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. OVERALL TREND HOWEVER WILL BE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
432 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
610 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
330 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WK MID LVL FLOW OVER NRN CO. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE SCT TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.