Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A moisture starved upper level short wave trough will swing across the area today, but other than enhancing clouds a bit north will have little effect. Tonight another upper level short wave trough will dive southeast toward our area and a weak surface cold front will push through after midnight. Thermal profiles suggest this precipitation will be mainly rain, but will likely fall as snow across the higher terrain of SW VA and the E TN mountains. Some of the higher elevations of the mountains may see light snow accumulation, less than an inch, by the end of the night.
Have continued with the cooler temperatures as snowfall across portions of the central Sandhills and into north central Nebraska continue to linger. Elsewhere, highs will rise into the low to mid 40s on Monday. A continued surge of warmer 850mb temperatures (4C to 8C) will allow surface temperatures to return to the mid to upper 40s for Tuesday. These warmer temperatures should be able to melt off any lingering snowpack before the next system moves into the region on Tuesday night.
Near and south of the Ohio River where there will be some breaks in the clouds, have high temperatures reaching into the low 40s.
/issued 329 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ A low pressure continues pushing northeastward away from our area. Dry weather for the next 2 days as a ridge builds over the area.
High pressure will expand north up the Ohio Valley through today. A weak trough will move east across the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday.
Could also not rule out a bit of drizzle/freezing drizzle ahead of the deeper lift, especially near and east of the MS River, with the RAP showing weak ascent in the cloud layer from low-level warm advection prior to deeper saturation. If fog/low clouds become widespread through the overnight, they may be slow to erode again on Tuesday given the weak mixing as the ridge axis passes overhead.
went with highs towards the warmer side of guidance, but ended up lowering a couple degrees over the areas that still have a fair amount of snow pack to melt through.
950 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Low pressure continues to move east of Cape Cod today.
529 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure ridging is likely over the area early this week. But, the northwest flow will last for a few days, keeping it more cloudy than a typical high pressure set up. Large scale subsidence has overspread the region early this morning behind departing upper low. However, residual low level moisture, combined with light upslope flow, will continue to produce spotty drizzle, freezing drizzle or flurries over the Allegheny Plateau. Cloud cover will keep temperatures from rising much today, with highs likely ranging from the low 30s over the highest ridges of the Alleghenies, to the low 40s across the Lower Susq Valley.
A cold front across the southern peninsula early this morning will move south of the state by later this morning. In the wake of the front high pressure will settle in over the area today with mid level clouds across southern zones clearing out later this morning with cooler and drier conditions expected through Tuesday. During Tuesday a short wave trough will move across the southeastern States and then east into the Atlantic with an attendant reinforcing cold front moving south through the forecast area during the afternoon. Lack of moisture will preclude any rain chances with the frontal passage with pleasant cool dry weather continuing through mid week as high pressure rebuilds in over the southeastern U.
620 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Aviation - Chance for wintry precipitation tonight - Continued cloudy to mostly cloudy with fog possible at times - Chance for wintry precipitation tonight Guidance continues to show light precipitation moving in tonight as a cold front drops down through the area. a small risk for freezing drizzle could arise. For now we are not confident enough to feature the freezing drizzle in the forecast. - Continued cloudy to mostly cloudy with fog possible at times Looking at the model overviews in Bufkit shows the low level rh remaining high. If thicker fog could form and temperatures were near or below freezing. The low clouds. As the southwest winds increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front eventually arrives later tonight. This is ahead of the cold front.
Cold start out this morning with areas generally in the low 30s with some mid to upper 20s in the north.
/issued 302 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ Despite the warmer temperatures the past couple of days, some of the snowpack received in last week's storm is still hanging around, especially across portions of the eastern and southern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, the higher terrain south of I-10, and portions of the Big Bend Area. A weak cold front will drop south through the region today, resulting in a brief period of breezy northerly to northeasterly winds around mid-morning, with winds becoming lighter and gradually veering around to the east by this evening. Cold air advection isn't very strong with this front, thus temperatures today will only be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with lingering snowcover across the aforementioned areas keeping temperatures there in the lower to middle 50s, rather than the lower 60s that are expected for most other locations.
523 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week with a series of upper level disturbances crossing the region.
Guidance suggests that there won't be substantial improvement for most locations until late in the morning or early afternoon when the wind shifts to the west/northwest behind a weak trough. Where the fog does lift, it will likely stay fairly cloudy today, and forecast soundings maintain a strong subsidence inversion over the area as low level ridging builds over the Mid Mississippi Valley. The aforementioned trough brings somewhat drier air with it, but it's not a huge change in the airmass, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more fog develop tonight. Fog/low clouds tonight should be a bit less widespread/persistent as it is today with somewhat warmer temperatures expected Tuesday and forecast soundings showing a more shallow moist layer near the surface.
A few snow showers will be possible as well, mainly in the higher elevations. Temperatures are climbing above the freezing mark so will allow the SPS to expire. Temperatures in the 30s through the day will fall into the lower 30s tonight. Thus will expect a chance of freezing drizzle again. During the night, an approaching trough will swing winds around to the WNW and added lift will chance the drizzle over to more snow showers and flurries. Light patchy precipitation will continue overnight with better coverage Tuesday/Tuesday night as upper troughing slides in overhead.
Conditions are worse in IA and with the southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, some deeper low level moisture could advect northward during the next several hours. These haven't had too much of an impact on the low level conditions, but the cold frontal passage surely will. Atmosphere profiles support a light wintry mix of snow, freezing drizzle, and possibly a little sleet. Any meager impacts the precip may bring would be brief as temps rise above freezing.
/Issued 207 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ Widespread fog/freezing fog noted across parts of eastern KS into western MO, with some patchy areas into far northeast OK/northwest AR. Otherwise, warmer weather is expected today and Tuesday with rising mid-level heights across the southern Plains. NBM is likely a bit cool with highs the next 2 days and blended in some of the warmer NAM/GFS guidance.
322 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 An early morning cold front continues to push out of the area. Some light precipitation is possible late tonight across western North Dakota as a weak mid-level wave swings through ahead of the main trough. As the aforementioned trough moves in, it could bring some light rain to western North Dakota Tuesday afternoon. Further east, a rain/snow mix is possible late afternoon as temperatures in the low/mid 30s are expected.
As this area of precip moves toward Fargo Moorhead and into west central MN some CAM guidance expands its coverage and with temps below freezing a glaze of ice will be possible impacting the morning commute.
Surface flow backs tonight to the south, and even the southeast on Tuesday, which results in slightly cooler temperatures than today, but still mild and above normal.
652 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Band of snow and possibly mixed precip quickly moving east is between Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids along the cold front and will be east of the forecast area by 9am. As this area of precip moves toward Fargo Moorhead and into west central MN some CAM guidance expands its coverage and with temps below freezing a glaze of ice will be possible impacting the morning commute.
643 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week with a series of upper level disturbances crossing the region.
416 AM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 Upper ridging will be the trend this period, with dry weather and another day of above normal temperatures expected across the area. Latest models are coming into better agreement of a quick moving system moving across the Rockies through the day Tuesday, bringing a quick shot of snow to the higher terrain, mainly across the northern and central mountains, with breezy to windy conditions across all of south central and southeast Colorado, ahead of and behind the passing system. With that said, will see increasing westerly flow aloft as the broad upper trough moves into western Colorado by 12Z Tuesday, with the system then moving moving across south central and into eastern Colorado through the late afternoon before exiting Colorado through the late evening hours.
With high pressure to our SE and upper level ridging developing overhead, weather conditions will stay on the dry side with light and variable winds and mostly sunny skies. Tonight, cooler and drier air mass will move across the northern portions of the CWA, while a more humid air mass remains along the southern portions. This will not do much with respect to rain, since we will still be under the influence of the mid to upper level ridging, but at least we will get some clouds first developing along the southwest locations gradually expanding into the rest of the CWA later on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the western United States today will move eastward across the central U. a weak cold front will move into south Texas late today into this evening before stalling. The frontal boundary will retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday.
638 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Low pressure heads east of Long Island Monday and meanders off Nova Scotia. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through midweek. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Temperatures today, under the cloudy skies and northerly flow, will top out in the low 40s from NYC on east, and in the upper 30s to near 40 across the interior. Unsettled weather continues as the upper low and general trough pattern over the northeast stay in place on Tuesday.
419 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Low pressure heads east of Long Island Monday and meanders off Nova Scotia. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through midweek. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Temperatures today, under the cloudy skies and northerly flow, will top out in the low 40s from NYC on east, and in the upper 30s to near 40 across the interior. Unsettled weather continues as the upper low and general trough pattern over the northeast stay in place on Tuesday.
209 AM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 09z surface analysis had cold front well southeast of the CWA with weak ridge building into the CWA. Water vapour had upper ridge building into the northern Plains behind upper trough over the Midwest. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts through the northern Plains into the Midwest as upper trough moves into the northern Rockies. Have painted ring of warmer overnight lows for these areas. Tuesday, upper trough move through the region with main energy diving east/southeast into the central Plains. Moisture won't be plentiful, but synoptic forcing ahead of jet streak as well as modest low level frontogenisis will support a band of snow/rain along advancing cold front.
414 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Low pressure heads east of Long Island Monday and meanders off Nova Scotia. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through midweek. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Temperatures today, under the cloudy skies and northerly flow, will top out in the low 40s from NYC on east, and in the upper 30s to near 40 across the interior. Unsettled weather continues as the upper low and general trough pattern over the northeast stay in place on Tuesday.
A weak transitory ridge of high pressure will slide overhead today keeping conditions quiet and dry across the rest of eastern Utah and western Colorado. The ridge will be shunted east into the Plains overnight as a progressive midlevel trough treks across the western CONUS. The trough axis will saddle the Continental Divide during the latter half of Tuesday before quickly sliding east Tuesday night.
605 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Snow will end across the region early this morning, as low pressure moves eastward towards the New England coast.
An early morning cold front continues to push out of the area. Some light precipitation is possible late tonight across western North Dakota as a weak mid-level wave swings through ahead of the main trough. As the aforementioned trough moves in, it could bring some light rain to western North Dakota Tuesday afternoon. Further east, a rain/snow mix is possible late afternoon as temperatures in the low/mid 30s are expected.
329 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 A low pressure continues pushing northeastward away from our area. Dry weather for the next 2 days as a ridge builds over the area.
Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on sfc temperatures) will be possible today with moisture trapped under a low level inversion, subtle lift, and BL temps too warm for cloud ice. A Special Weather Statement was put out for locations along /north of I-80 and the higher elevations this morning. Light patchy precipitation will continue overnight with better coverage Tuesday/Tuesday night as upper troughing slides in overhead.
431 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Low pressure heads east of Long Island Monday and meanders off Nova Scotia. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through midweek. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Temperatures today, under the cloudy skies and northerly flow, will top out in the low 40s from NYC on east, and in the upper 30s to near 40 across the interior. Unsettled weather continues as the upper low and general trough pattern over the northeast stay in place on Tuesday.
/issued 351 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the western United States today will move eastward across the central U. a weak cold front will move into south Texas late today into this evening before stalling. The frontal boundary will retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday.
A cold front and associated upper level trough will move through the region this afternoon and evening, before exiting far northeast WI (Door County) in the early overnight hours. Moisture is limited with this system, and may not be deep enough to ensure ice crystals in the saturated layer, so precipitation type is expected to consist of a light mix of snow showers and freezing rain. Given trends of the past few days, have gone with a blend of the cooler guidance for today's highs, which should be mainly in the 25 to 30 degree range. Lows tonight are only expected to drop into the lower to middle 20s. A ridge of high pressure will move into the region on Tuesday, and may finally bring partial clearing by afternoon.
501 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Main focus is with the mid-week upper trof/low which deepens across the central Plains/Ozarks with chances for rain/snow. However, milder westerly flow off the high Plains behind a frontal passage should advect/scour this out quicker before mid-morning, so the Dense Fog Advisory may be cancelled early. Otherwise, the downslope warming will also portend to a warmer day, though snow covered areas will still lag a bit. The progressive upper trof over the Pacific will move inland and across the western CONUS tonight before emerging across the central/northern high Plains Tuesday afternoon.
Any precipitation accumulations at this point look quite light, with an inch or two of snow in the highest elevations the best bet. Gusty ridgetop winds will be on the increase as this wave pushes inland, with ridgeline wind gusts to 50 mph possible.
(Today and tonight) A weak and dry cold front will move south across our area today. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across our central and southern counties, and in the lower to mid 30s across the Big Country.
Surface winds will swing around to the southwest tonight with surface lee troughing developing in response to a short wave moving across the Intermountain West. Winds will start off on the breezy side Tuesday morning as surface lee troughing continues.
604 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Dense freezing fog currently lingers across northwest Iowa as light southeasterly flow has been advecting moist air over the snowpack. Clear skies and a quick return of ridging aloft allows for redevelopment of a surface inversion tonight.
427 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 An upper low will move across the region quietly early today. High pressure maintains dry weather Tuesday through Tuesday night.
/Issued 245 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ A cold front will continue to sweep across the Panhandles early this morning. The winds may get a little gusty late this morning through about the noon hour as the low level jet mixes out. A cold front will move across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle by mid afternoon, turning the winds to the northwest. This cold front will then quickly move across the rest of the Panhandles during the late afternoon and early evening. A cold front will sweep from northwest to southeast across the Panhandles from about mid afternoon to the early evening switching the winds to the northwest.
Dense fog and freezing fog continue to impacts portions of the region this morning. Additionally, freezing fog may create a light glaze on elevated objects. A few slick spots may develop on bridges and overpasses. Warmer temperatures are expected today, especially across portions of southern Missouri where highs will climb into the lower 50s. By Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will develop across the central CONUS. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will reach into the lower to middle 50s across the Ozarks region with plenty of sunshine.
302 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Despite the warmer temperatures the past couple of days, some of the snowpack received in last week's storm is still hanging around, especially across portions of the eastern and southern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, the higher terrain south of I-10, and portions of the Big Bend Area. A weak cold front will drop south through the region today, resulting in a brief period of breezy northerly to northeasterly winds around mid-morning, with winds becoming lighter and gradually veering around to the east by this evening. Cold air advection isn't very strong with this front, thus temperatures today will only be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with lingering snowcover across the aforementioned areas keeping temperatures there in the lower to middle 50s, rather than the lower 60s that are expected for most other locations.
440 AM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE A ridge of high pressure will move across NM today with dry conditions and less wind.
931 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 The cold front remains just to the south of Florida. High pressure builds in from the west producing northerly winds, which will bring in some cooler and drier air through the week. High pressure ridging in from the west will produce northerly winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern gulf waters through Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northeast by mid-week as the high pressure moves to the north.
A sunny and very mild day is expected today with afternoon temperatures peaking 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday which is around 7-10 degrees warmer than normal for January 4th. With the anticipated light winds it should feel noticeably warmer.
Southwest flow will bring snow to southwestern mountains by this evening as the ridging shifts eastward. Moist southwest flow aloft persists overnight, ahead of the approaching trough, bringing a prolonged period of mountain snow. The trough and associated cold front will cross the region Tuesday, pushing the heavier snowfall out of the mountains by late morning. Showers will push eastward across lower elevations with the quick moving cold front. There is a slight chance for a short period of freezing rain in easternmost counties, but the signal is pretty subtle, and not confident enough to include in forecast. Gusts around 50 mph can be expected along the foothills, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph across the lower elevations.
High pressure will follow for the mid week period.
645 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Snow will end across the region early this morning, as low pressure moves eastward towards the New England coast.
600 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Low pressure heads east of Long Island Monday and meanders off Nova Scotia. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through midweek. Another coastal low pressure system is possible this weekend. Temperatures today, under the cloudy skies and northerly flow, will top out in the low 40s from NYC on east, and in the upper 30s to near 40 across the interior. Unsettled weather continues as the upper low and general trough pattern over the northeast stay in place on Tuesday.
The thicker cloud coverage will moderate temperatures, keeping the northern counties in the middle 30s today, while the far southwestern counties will likely climb a few degrees higher into the lower 40s with some additional insolation.
923 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Weak low pressure moving off the New England coast will continue to produce spotty flurries and sprinkles today.
404 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Dense freezing fog currently lingers across northwest Iowa as light southeasterly flow has been advecting moist air over the snowpack. Clear skies and a quick return of ridging aloft allows for redevelopment of a surface inversion tonight.
529 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak and dry cold front will move south across our area today. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across our central and southern counties, and in the lower to mid 30s across the Big Country.
an upper level ridge approaches the area today then over the area tonight ahead of an approaching upper trough. High clouds increase after midnight with low temperatures in the low to upper 20s. the upper level trough and surface cold front move through the western 1/2 of the forecast area by the end of the day with breezy northwest winds behind it and light west winds ahead of it. Precipitation chances decrease quickly from west to east after midnight as the upper trough moves away from the area. Low temperatures fall into the low 20s to around 30.
541 AM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 Cooler air will move into the Carolinas through mid week.
1035 AM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 Pretty mild Monday for us as initial clear skies this morning are helping temperatures to bounce back up to the mid 40s despite yesterday evenings cold front. A very small chance of freezing rain also exists for far eastern MT, as well as low valleys of SE MT.