Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, a cold front will move into and across the area toady and tonight. Made some adjustments to grids to show current trends and expected timing of additional showers/storms and cold front. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across northern and central Oklahoma. A cold front moving across western Kansas early this morning will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms by this afternoon and early evening. The front will likely have a better push southward over the higher terrain to our west. Warmer lower to mid level temperatures over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas may limit convective potential, however, there should be enough storm organization to keep high chance POPs across this area.
With storm motion southwest to northeast, will keep the higher pops over eastern and northeast sections of the forecast area. The sub-tropical ridge remains stretched from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast this morning which is keeping the warm south fetch in place. Aloft the region is between a ridge over Texas and a ridge over Florida. An upper low is over the central gulf. With no ridge in place aloft, the area under the northern edge of an upper low, and a hot and humid air mass in place another day of showers and storms can be expected. Beyond today weak ridging aloft is expected to build over the area.
A weak upper level trough is moving southeast across the region today bringing scattered mid and high clouds mainly across southwest Idaho. The trough will bring light west- northwest winds today and tomorrow.
1245 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A weak frontal boundary remains over the area today into tonight as high pressure builds over the Northeast states.
Will tempo in convection during the evening and overnight from west to east as storms along a cold front move through the area.
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A weak frontal boundary remains over the area today into tonight as high pressure builds over the Northeast states.
Current obs range from the low to upper 70s across the TN Valley with foggy conditions across the NE continuing to improve. Lows should end up a few degrees warmer with values in the mid 70s. The ridge should be solidly over the area during the day Thursday and temps are going to be the highest of any day this week. Model guidance continues to be on the low side in terms of highs and based on the past few days being winding up above forecast values have nudged values a degree or two warmer from what we had yesterday. Highs should be in the lower 90s and with the tropical airmass still in place, Heat Index values will be just below the 105 degree mark needed for any type of heat related product.
However, since the high rainfall rates will cause some brief street flooding, the potential for heavy downpours has been added to the forecast.
1137 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 High pressure will cover the region today into early Thursday.
/issued 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/ Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will remain under fairly weak westerly flow aloft today while an upper ridge to the east slowly begins to inch westward. 850mb temps back off a few degrees and slightly cooler highs expected. The upper ridge will continue to build to the west heading into the weekend, decreasing rain chances across the FA. Looks like we could get enough heating/instability and southeast/upslope flow in and near the mountains to overcome the suppression of the upper ridge for some afternoon/evening storms each day through the weekend.
1005 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Morning upper air shows digging trof/low center over southwest NE. Developing storm system over western Kansas early this morning will be lifting northeast and strengthening today, with the synoptic models centering the low over southeast Minnesota by late tonight. A line of thunderstorms associated with the cold front itself should begin to take shape by mid afternoon from western Iowa into Kansas. The low will continue to strengthen as it lifts northeast across Wisconsin on Thursday, with the front itself crossing the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
There is an upper level trough that will be affecting the area through the day. At the surface there is a cold front that is the focus for the line of thunderstorms in the western part of the forecast area this morning. Temperatures behind the cold front will be cooler, especially with clouds and precipitation around during the day.
505 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 The cold front has progressed eastward to the Great Plains, leaving cool and dry northwesterly flow in its wake. This cooler airmass will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal today and tomorrow. Another trough drops NW to SE into the region tonight, but not anticipating any moisture with this trough. Therefore, this passing trough will only increase winds slightly and reinforce the cooler air aloft. On Thursday, the longwave trough pattern finally moves off to the east and high pressure begins to amplify across the southwestern US.
A cool northerly flow continues over the area this morning as Central CA remains situated in between a trough over the Great Basin and a building ridge near 140W.
930 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017 An upper-level trough along the West Coast will maintain a deep marine layer and below average temperatures today.
635 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Surface analysis early this morning indicated a trough of low pressure across the central high plains with a warm front draped eastward across Nebraska and along the Missouri/Iowa border. Relatively dry low-level air was in place to the north with easterly surface flow under the influence of high pressure. Showers/isolated storms have been lifting northward especially across southeast Minnesota along the 850 mb warm front/moisture gradient. Stronger forcing will arrive late this afternoon with increasing low- level warm/moist advection ahead of the surface warm front. CAMs are in pretty good agreement that one or more bands of convection will lift north and eastward into the area by this afternoon and tonight as forcing from the upper trough increases.
Otherwise, with the departing upper trough, skies are clear, except for thin smoke from the BC wild fires. This will allow for dry and warmer weather over the forecast area. With little or no moisture expected, it looks like it will be a dry cold front. NW winds behind the cold front may be high enough to create critical fire weather conditions.
Convection over central Nebraska is associated with a surface cold front and mid level trough from the central Dakotas into northwest Kansas, while eastern Nebraska convection associated with warm advection and overrunning of an outflow boundary across southern Nebraska. IR satellite loops show the colder cloud tops and stronger convection ahead of the surface front and upper trough while cloud tops have in general been warming across eastern Nebraska with isolated colder tops developing now and then. General trend will be for the surface front and upper trough to move east today and tonight with rain chances increases for the forecast area.
733 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight, then moves off the coast Thursday.
746 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide pleasant weather today. Low pressure tracking northeast through Wisconsin on Thursday will send very humid air into the region that will help trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms.
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Update/Marine High pressure will provide pleasant weather today. Low pressure tracking northeast through Wisconsin on Thursday will send very humid air into the region that will help trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms.
533 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE Westerly flow aloft continues over New Mexico this morning as an upper level trof moves ewd through eastern CO and another slides sewd through southern CA.
1026 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper level ridging prevails across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the SE U. Cannot justify likely pops in that area this afternoon with the upper ridge in place and lack of a disturbance to trigger activity. However, since highs are expected to be a tad cooler than previous thinking then heat indices should stay below 105 degrees as well. Once that convection dies out then all eyes will turn to the north as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front that will be sinking south through Missouri.
822 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Weak high pressure is in place across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s for highs. Light winds and slight seas for the next several days with high pressure in place across the area.
High humidity combined with these temperatures will result in peak heat indices mainly in the lower 100s; be sure to stay hydrated if doing physical activity this afternoon and early evening.
The weak upper level trough over Nevada will cross Utah tonight through Thursday.
Afternoon thunderstorms are also expected across the higher terrain of northern Elko county but should be even more pulse-like.
947 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front.
520 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper level analysis has a trof across the western CONUS, and another across New England with weak ridging across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure and weak trof reside across the central and eastern Dakotas, with main low across Kansas. High pressure is settling into the Northern Rockies behind the surface trof. Upper level trof across the western CONUS will shift into the Northern Plains as the surface trof move east of the area. Near zonal flow and weak ridging is expected for the end of the week and this weekend, with mainly dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across south central Florida this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern United States today.
Sfc analysis shows low level ridge axis remains across south FL with a weak high pressure center over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid level ridge providing suppression and warm temps aloft. Low level ridge axis remains across south FL this morning while sfc analysis shows a weak secondary high center over the eastern Gulf producing a light NW flow over the area.
Water vapor imagery showing large upper low over Arkansas this morning with ejecting vort max moving over the North Central Gulf and the FL Panhandle. Gusty S-SW winds today ahead of cold front and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions into the afternoon hours. Convection to continue this evening lingering overnight with cold front passing over the E Gulf for SCA conditions most areas Friday. An approaching cold front that will push through the peninsula will bring showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Models show a deepening upper trough that closes off over the mid Mississippi Valley area with a cold front trailing across the Florida panhandle this morning.
With the trough aloft digging well down into the Gulf, large scale lift also looks supportive of convection.
An unseasonably strong upper level ridge will remain in place today with VFR conditions expected through tonight.
As high pressure builds into the region, will continue to see clear skies and VFR conditions. /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017/ Cool and dry weather is in store for Southeast Texas today as an upper low pressure trough moves over MS valley. The upper trough will move east into the mid Atlantic Region early this weekend as an upper ridge moves over Texas. During the weekend another upper trough will dig into the West Coast with an upper low forming over the lower Rockies by the first of the new week. Temperatures will be slow to warm today and Friday as the long wave upper low slowly moves eastward.
1220 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
Temperatures at this hour already in the 50s on the plains and 30s/40s in the high country. Current forecast is near guidance today and a little cooler tonight which looks good.
621 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 The 500mb weather pattern shows a high amplitude ridge set up across the western third of the nation and Canada, with a trough across the eastern half of the nation.
/issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017/ Northeast winds through Guadalupe Pass has diminished below High Wind criteria therefore the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire.
747 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 A cold front is approaching from the west this morning.
735 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
Surface wise, a nebulous ridge lies just north of our area, while a cold front is draped from the Louisiana coast southward into the Gulf of Mexico.
The axis of the high amplitude upper level ridge is directly over Idaho this morning, with clear skies over most of the western U. Today will be the warmest day with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 80s in most valleys. As the upper level trough moves onshore on Friday, support for showers and thunderstorms will increase across our CWA. The upper level ridge, which will be just to our east on Friday, will block inland progression of the trough and associated surface cold front, so best support for thunderstorms will be delayed until Friday night.
Clearing has occurred in these areas along with the associated warmer temps and drier air. TYS is 74 degrees with a dewpoint of 40 and GKT is 75 over 36, which is warmer and drier than surrounding sites. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 48 54 45 / 80 60 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 52 54 45 / 70 80 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 71 52 55 45 / 80 80 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 52 54 42 / 20 80 60 70 NC.
Still expect the three rounds of convection over the next 24 hours as pre- frontal trof and cold front push across the region. After this round of storms a lull is expected during the mid-late evening hours before the final round of widely scattered showers/storms with the cold frontal passage during the overnight hours. Then potentially VFR conds until final cold frontal passage with MVFR CIGS and wind shift late tonight in the 07-09z time frame. South Flow increases to 20 to 25 knots today and seas build to 6-8 ft ahead of the cold front.
915 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017 High pressure building over the Northern Rockies will bring a dry and warm day to the area. High temperatures will top out in the 70s to near 80 degrees for the lower elevations. Upper level high pressure will dominate the pattern through the short term period, with dry conditions expected each day.
Sfc winds have also not responded to the approaching line of showers/attendant cold front, and likewise the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. The cold front will be exiting the area at the start of the short term period, with much of the rainfall to our east. The upper low will continue to move eastward and deepen during the overnight period. The upper low is expected to move to the east-northeast during the day on Friday, with light showers becoming more numerous across the area during the day. The upper low will finally push to the east of the area overnight Friday as a strong upper ridge builds into the Plains. Lows will once again fall into the lower to mid 40s across the TN Valley.
927 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
636 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017 A region of high pressure over the northern plains will maintain a quite and mild weather pattern over the region beginning today and continuing through the weekend. Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper high circulating over central Nevada, with the associated ridge axis north through Alberta, Canada. Winds bounded within the lowest afternoon humidities only around 5kt/6mph, so no fire weather concerns.
Still anticipating light shower development tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Weak cold front across WA and the north Pacific will move south tonight spreading scattered light rain and snow showers across our northern areas and increasing clouds in the south. Winds will diminish Wednesday evening, and Wednesday night will be slightly cooler than tonight.
A longwave trough continues to dig over the southern Rockies while a surface front is stalled from southern Illinois through southern Missouri into a low over northwest Arkansas.
618 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 For tonight, dry conditions will continue as high pressure slowly slides southeastward.
1049 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Under partly cloudy skies with a fresh to strong easterly wind, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s. KBYX VWP suggests that the winds in the lowest few thousand feet are even higher than when the balloon lifted through those layers earlier this evening. Decided to maintain the small craft advisory across all waters surrounding the Florida Keys overnight, based mostly on what the KBYX VWP is displaying thorugh the lowest layers.
639 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Cold front pushing through the area this evening with widespread storms tonight. /issued 159 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ The upper trough moving in from the west has formed a closed low over AZ this morning. This low will slowly move east passing across the region Wednesday with high pressure building in behind it. This low will bring a good chance of rain to the area. Not much of a dryline today as surface moisture pushed up against the higher elevations.
718 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Aviation A cold front will push east of the region this evening taking the rain with it.
/Issued 558 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ An upper level low pressure system over far western New Mexico is forecast to move eastward tonight, then across west Texas on Wednesday.
1028 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 High pressure will move east tonight allowing a warm front to approach tonight with increasing clouds and perhaps some light precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning.
1024 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A weak frontal system that will move across late tonight into Wednesday morning, then wash out nearby, followed by weak high pressure later Wednesday.
748 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 00z/7pm surface analysis shows cold front settling slowly southward toward the Ohio River. Elsewhere around central Illinois, cloudy and cool conditions will prevail with overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest of the Illinois River. to the lower to middle 40s along/south of I-70. Moisture channel satellite still shows upper low spinning in southern AZ. Cold front by 20z had made it to east central IL, and will continue to slowly move to south overnight. Weak high pressure will follow the front, causing light winds and so some patchy dense fog possible over region, with the main area northwest of IL river. Dry period will be short lived though, as the upper trough remains over southwest US.
1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 For tonight, dry conditions will continue as high pressure slowly slides southeastward.
An upper level trough will bring additional showers and storms Wednesday afternoon.
A warm front will retreat northward across central NC on Wednesday.
1045 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 High pressure ridging over the area will continue tonight with southeasterly surface flow increasing moisture.
Went more pessimistic on ceilings, as cold front with IFR ceilings behind it moves south into the Big County late this evening and through the rest of the terminals late tonight into mid morning Wednesday. As an upper trough continues to move slowly over the Southern Rockies and into the Plains tomorrow afternoon, the best rain chances will shift to our eastern counties. The other factor in pay tonight into tomorrow is another cold front.
The cold front has pushed south of all terminals and winds shifted to the northeast. /issued 348 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ A potent upper level low currently over Arizona will move eastward and transition our part of the Lone Star State by Wed evening. As the trough axis passes, the flow will become northwesterly and slowly transitions to zonal by the weekend.
This is all in thanks to high pressure over the Carolinas which will slide southeastward tonight and gradually veer winds to more east-southeasterly.
1001 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Update A cold front will push east of the region this evening taking the rain with it.
740 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 High pressure will move east tonight allowing a warm front to approach tonight with increasing clouds and perhaps some light precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning.
1052 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Deep upper low is currently situated across the Desert Southwest with southwest flow aloft remaining over the southern Plains. At the surface, cold front stretches from southeast MO into west TX. Main story for Wed into Thu will be for the main upper trough to finally swing across the Plains as some northern stream energy phases with the main impulse currently over the southwest CONUS. Upper trough will finally swing east of the Plains Thu into Thu night, taking the better rainfall chances with it. GFS and ECMWF have come into much better agreement with the timing of a strong cold front Sat-Sun.
(Currently) Surface analysis reveals a low pressure system over northern Michigan with a trailing cold front across the southern Plains. Lift and convergence ahead of the cold front has supported widespread showers and isolated storms. (Tonight) The cold front pushes slightly southward overnight.
Dry conditions with lighter winds are expected the rest of this week as weak ridging moves into the area. A check of surface observations within the Lake Mead Natl Rec Area and south along the lower Colorado River to Lake Havasu City show north winds subsiding slightly quicker than expected. Otherwise, no changes as satellite shows some high clouds moving down front-side of ridge across central and northern Nevada.
824 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over AZ with a trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough moves out this afternoon. Another trough moves into the northern plains on Wed.
Low level ridge axis was settling southward offshore of the SE Atlantic Bight with low level winds veering further SSE and speeds weakening as subsidence increases from the ENE. SREF/NAM/HRRR model guidance consensus continue to support highest probabilities of fog formation near the SE GA Atlantic coast were low stratus lingered this evening under the low level ridge. IFR ceilings impacted SSI this evening, with VFR elsewhere as drier low level air pivots northward from southeast Florida as the low level ridge settles east of the local coast. Model consensus continued to support the highest probability of restrictions near SSI tonight as low level moisture pools under the low level ridge axis and light winds.
521 PM MDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A broad upper trough covers much of the CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. An upper wave and its associated cold front will cross the region tonight.
The strongest lift associated with the upper-level jet will shift east overnight and we should see a gradually decrease in activity from west to east until lift and instability increase again Wednesday with the approach of the upper trough. The cold front has pushed south of all terminals and winds shifted to the northeast. /issued 348 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ A potent upper level low currently over Arizona will move eastward and transition our part of the Lone Star State by Wed evening. As the trough axis passes, the flow will become northwesterly and slowly transitions to zonal by the weekend.
High pressure aloft centered along the west coast will bring a warming trend to the area through the remainder of the week.
620 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the PAH forecast area, with numerous showers along and behind the front. Any break will be short lived with models bringing another area of low pressure along the front, lifting it back into the PAH forecast area.