Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moisture will hold over the coastal plains on Tuesday while a trough axis/dryline moves east to near Highway 281. Very warm temperatures will occur again over the Brush Country while readings will be slightly cooler along the coast. Next short wave trough over southern Nevada this afternoon will move east and become an upper low over the Texas panhandle Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure overhead this afternoon providing glorious clear skies and light winds, with the sea breeze expected to develop between 19 and 20Z and quickly push westward reaching Brownsville/Harlingen by 20/21Z and McAllen by 22/23Z. Contrast between hot land and relatively cooler waters should give it a little freshening, but little more than 10-13 knots.
411 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A low pressure system will bring precipitation chances to the area through Tuesday.
355 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Upper level TROF is swinging thru our forecast area currently and is helpng to kick off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly in areas where the moisture convergence is most focused: for areas near and south of I-70. Models have been fairly consistent, however, at advertising a moderately strong RIDGE-runner disturbance that will bring the chance for showers to areas northwest and west of STL metro for Tuesday afternoon but at the time it should have limited moisture to work with and so kept PoPs below likely category. The higher PoPs and more persistent pcpn looks set to hold off until Tuesday night with lift from the main system entering our region.
254 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 low pressure over Missouri will track towards the eastern Great Lakes tonight. A warm front will cross the Mid Atlantic early Tuesday followed by a cold front later Tuesday morning.
Following the passage of the strong cold front yesterday, persistent deep layer cold advection under nwly flow aloft has brought much cooler, drier air across the region. The light winds, clear skies and relatively low dewpoints should allow for temperatures to drop into the lower to middle 50s across the region.
High pressure to east resulted in dry air mass, however return flow sets up tonight and will bring warmer temperatures on Monday. With a continued rather dry airmass entrenched, temps should climb easily into the 80s, with some low 90s possible into eastern North Dakota closer to the thermal ridge axis. The H5 ridge axis looks to pass across the Red River Valley early Monday evening with southwest flow increasing aloft during the evening and overnight.
On Monday, high pressure returns bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather.
(Issued 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016) The well advertised cold front continues to push S/SE through the area this afternoon. The front is forecast to stall out to our south tonight as the low pressure system/main driving force behind the front lifts further north into Canada. Expect temps to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s across the southern half of the area and in the lower 60s across the northern half for tonight/Monday morning.
A very weak front/pressure trof will slowly sink southward through Monday. The highest rain chances will be across inland areas closer to the boundary with slightly lower chances near the coast. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Monday will be in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast.
617 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Models are advertising a rather progressive pattern over the next several days with ern conus trof quickly shifting east while upstream Pac NW trof pushes inland by mid-week and treks along the U. This wave will be responsible for dragging the next cold front into the central plains.
1040 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Upper ridge across the wrn CONUS continues to build across the nrn plains today. Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved into the MS valley. Thermal ridge will cross the region Monday ahead of the next trough crossing the nrn Rockies.
1144 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will usher in a cooler and much drier airmass this overnight.
838 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will progress east through our area tonight. In the wake of the front, dry high pressure will build into the region from the west through mid-week. An upper level trough progressing east through the Great Lakes today and into New England tonight will push a seasonably strong cold front across the area late this evening and overnight. Westerly flow aloft preceding the front and late unfavorable diurnal timing will limit convective pops/coverage across the area with the the highest pops expected over the NW Piedmont and northern Piedmont during the 21z-01z, with rapid weakening thereafter owing to boundary layer cooling/stabilization. Expect convection to end from west-east between 03 to 06z as the surface front /low-level trough/ progress toward the Carolina coast.
Overnight lows look to be in the low 70s. The feature now roughly bisects the CWA from northeast to southwest, but will likely make little further progress south because the driving upper level trough has departed to the northeast. Regardless of the decent progress the front has made into the region the main air mass change is still confined north and northwest of our region as most locations in the Arklamiss Delta (in the wake of the boundary) are still seeing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
745 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A reinforcing cold front will push southeast across the area tonight.
This change in the weather pattern the result of a surface front that has pushed well south of mid state, high pressure influences from the MS river valley building into our region, along with a quasi dry NW flow aloft presently expected to become more zonal as the nighttime hrs progress. Dry high pressure will push in from the north during the next 24 hours.
1146 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A quiet conditions are expected for central Nebraska through Monday as high pressure continues to influence the region. Areas east of this line will drop into the low 60s. Highs Monday rise into the low 90s south of Antioch to O'Neill line.
A surface cold front is currently aligned from central New York down along the central and southern Appalachians. Broad high pressure centered across the southern Plains is moving in, along with a much more pleasant air mass, with dew points in the 50s. Aloft, a trough axis is swinging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Skies will become mostly clear tonight, as high pressure builds in at the surface, while heights recover aloft. The lower dew points in place will set up another cool night as skies remain mostly clear. High pressure will push east through the midweek period, with return flow bringing slightly milder air into the region.
As high pressure slides overhead and winds go nearly calm, overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the middle 50s. A cool night is in store as cool air settles in behind yesterday's cold front and winds taper off overnight allowing good radiational cooling. as southerly flow and warm advection return with the high positioned east of the area for the daytime.
The current forecast MinRH for this area bottoms out in the low 20s. Didn't adjust the high temperature forecast much from previous forecasts either, still maintaining highs near or at 100 degrees.
the cold front is now across central Mississippi with no showers or thunderstorms over the forecast area. As the cold front continues to move south tonight, an isolated shower is possible over far southern sections of the forecast area. High pressure will briefly settle over the region bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures with highs on Monday in the low to mid 80s. By Monday night, the cold front will start to move back north as a warm front.
With this, will see light west/southwesterly winds back to the south/southeast overnight on the backside of the high. With the tightening gradient, it will become windy in the afternoon, and with 850 mb temperatures climbing into the range of 20C to 25C it will be much warmer. A large area of upper low pressure moves closer to the plains Monday night, but is still sprawled across the intermountain west in two phases. The stronger of the two upper troughs is situated over Montana, while the weaker southern stream extends over the four corners area. Off the surface, the low level jet increases Monday night as the inversion collapses, with 30 to 40 knot winds at 925mb, and the strongest speeds over southwest MN.
Dry weather with lower humidity will continue across the area for the next couple of days under the influence of high pressure. As high pressure moves off to the east return flow will bring moisture back to the area along with increasing heat and storm chances will increase as a result.
This is ideal radiational cooling which should translate to widespread low temps in the 50s with just the heart of metro area remaining in the low 60s. A slow warming trend will begin as the surface/low level winds become southerly as the surface/850 mb ridge begins to shift east of the area.
The cool air to the east of this ridge led to some afternoon clouds across eastern MN and western WI.
941 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 After a couple of days of cooler and drier air, a more humid airmass over eastern Texas will move northward into Oklahoma late tonight into Monday.
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Pleasant late summer weather continues tonight and Monday as high pressure slides across the area. Weak return southerly flow on the back side of this feature will keep tonight's temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than last night, while highs on Monday rise into the lower to middle 80s.
1036 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The front has cleared the area and cooler drier air is working its way in. Under clear skies, highs tomorrow will climb into the low to mid 80s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 64 90 / 20 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 85 62 88 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 85 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 82 56 85 / 10 10 0 0.
518 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Upper ridge across the wrn CONUS continues to build across the nrn plains today. Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved into the MS valley. Thermal ridge will cross the region Monday ahead of the next trough crossing the nrn Rockies.
821 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will usher in a cooler and much drier airmass this evening and overnight.
A cool night is in store as cool air settles in behind yesterday's cold front and winds taper off overnight allowing good radiational cooling. as southerly flow and warm advection return with the high positioned east of the area for the daytime.
939 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The cold front that pushed through the Mid-South today remains stationary over Central Mississippi. the cold front is now across central Mississippi with no showers or thunderstorms over the forecast area. As the cold front continues to move south tonight, an isolated shower is possible over far southern sections of the forecast area. High pressure will briefly settle over the region bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures with highs on Monday in the low to mid 80s. By Monday night, the cold front will start to move back north as a warm front.
Already seeing the coverage of the showers diminish early this afternoon and that trend will continue through the early evening with all showers coming to an end by around sunset as influence of the cyclonic flow weakens, we lose daytime heating effects, and surface ridging builds in from the west. Clearing skies, light winds, recent rains, cooler temps, and some moisture trapped under a low level inversion will create the potential for fog development overnight, mainly across central and north central WI.
837 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region through tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Monday and remains over the area for much of the upcoming week. Partial clearing expected wrn portions as winds shift to NW (post cold front) and drier air begins to arrive. Cold front pushes well S and E of the FA on Mon.
1154 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure will build across southern Michigan today and will influence the weather through tonight. Quiet conditions will ensue early in the week as this high builds across the area. Upper heights are already building on Monday/Monday night as upper trough pivots to the east/northeast.
/issued 939 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ The cold front that pushed through the Mid-South today remains stationary over Central Mississippi. the cold front is now across central Mississippi with no showers or thunderstorms over the forecast area. As the cold front continues to move south tonight, an isolated shower is possible over far southern sections of the forecast area. High pressure will briefly settle over the region bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures with highs on Monday in the low to mid 80s. By Monday night, the cold front will start to move back north as a warm front.
804 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A trough of low pressure moves across the region late tonight. High pressure then dominates the upcoming week.
The increased clouds and chance of showers will keep overnight temperatures on the mild side, with lows a few degrees warmer than last nights most locations. Due to the convective element, small hail, ice pellets or even snow may be possible over the highest peaks of the San Juan Mountians, where a layer of white may be visible by daybreak above 12K FT or higher. The north will remain drier for less clouds and cooler nighttime lows.
A quiet conditions are expected for central Nebraska through Monday as high pressure continues to influence the region. Areas east of this line will drop into the low 60s. Highs Monday rise into the low 90s south of Antioch to O'Neill line.
This may not come to pass should short range models be correct with a slightly warmer night.
543 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Upper ridge axis will cross the local area tonight resulting in dry conditions. Clouds will dissipate after sunset with loss of surface heating but with winds forecast to stay breezy from the south through the night temperatures will struggle to fall below the lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge will move east on Monday with southwesterly flow by the afternoon.
This may not come to pass should short range models be correct with a slightly warmer night. The trend during the next several days will be for the upper level ridge to build overhead. Warmer daytime temperatures will result.
908 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Winds have eased and humidities are slowly on the rise this evening across the high country in southeast Wyoming, so went ahead and cancelled today's Red Flag Warning. Further off to the west, water vapor imagery showing next low pressure system pushing into southeastern Vancouver Province with upper level ridge axis located from central Montana into western Wyoming and eastern Utah. Both the GFS and ECMWF 12Z guidance showing the upper low tracking slightly further south Monday and Monday night as compared to yesterday.
1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will usher in a cooler and much drier airmass this overnight.
(Issued 759 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016) Cold front is now across central AL along with the sct shra/tsra activity. Clouds were still moving over the cwa on the back side of the cold front. On Monday high pressure will build over the area which should keep taf sites free of pcpn.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southern half of the Florida peninsula overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure near the western tip of Cuba will progress westward through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Despite adequate atmospheric instability and moisture in place for convection, synoptic scale subsidence in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere warrants no more than dime POPs for tonight.
The southerly winds combined with sunny skies on Monday will warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s.
1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Models are advertising a rather progressive pattern over the next several days with ern conus trof quickly shifting east while upstream Pac NW trof pushes inland by mid-week and treks along the U. This wave will be responsible for dragging the next cold front into the central plains.
A stationary front currently south of the area will lift north as a warm front late tonight into Monday morning. Should also see some patchy fog develop across mainly the southern half of the forecast area into the early morning hours ahead of the warm front. Overnight tonight another upper trough to our west will produce conditions favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop across our western counties and move toward the northeast. Another upper trough develops over the western CONUS; however, confidence isn't very high regrading how much that trough will enhance our rain chances.
The cold front has made it through the mid state with most of the precipitation having cleared out and clouds beginning to scatter farther upstream. Finally, cooler, drier air will advect into Middle Tennessee over the next several hours as we transition to a drier period overall. Once the upper trough pushes through later this afternoon, high pressure will build in from the south and will remain the dominant upper-level feature across the southeast for at least the next 7 days.
924 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Quiet evening locally here in NE FL/SE GA ahead of approaching cold front across the SE U. On Monday as weakening cold front sags into the region expect enough moisture and convergence from sea breeze moving inland to trigger scattered showers and storms by the afternoon hours with rain chances generally in the 20-40% range, but still plenty of sunshine in the morning and early afternoon to push Max Temps well above normal in the middle 90s inland and lower 90s at the coast.
The high pressure responsible for the clear skies is to the east of the forecast area this afternoon. The high pressure is expected to continue to move to the east tonight and the pressure gradient across the area will increase.
High pressure will track from central Illinois this evening to southwest Indiana by sunrise Monday morning. Dewpoints are already bouncing back up with the evening cooling and given the setup of clear skies, light winds and high pressure overhead, feel that patchy to areas of fog may form in some of the sheltered valleys and typical fog prone areas.
/issued 357 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through the early portion of the week. With the lower coverage in thunderstorms early in the week combined with a later start time, temperatures will be allowed to climb into the lower to mid 90s across many locations.
1021 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will progress east through our area tonight. In the wake of the front, dry high pressure will build into the region from the west through mid-week. A surface cold front analyzed at 02Z from far ERN NY, SWWD across the NRN Chesapeake Bay to the NC Blue Ridge and NRN Gulf Coast states, will continue to settle SEWD and across central NC overnight. As such, some boundary layer drying may occur across the NC Piedmont even in advance of the actual surface front, and leading edge of widespread sub-70 degree surface dewpoint air, still struggling across the NC Blue Ridge.
Overnight tonight another upper trough to our west will produce conditions favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop across our western counties and move toward the northeast. Another upper trough develops over the western CONUS; however, confidence isn't very high regrading how much that trough will enhance our rain chances.
/Tonight/ General subsidence will occur tonight with surface ridging sliding through the state this evening. A dry cool airmass will accompany the high with temperatures quickly falling this evening with the light winds and clear skies. Temperatures will likely steady out during the early morning hours as winds come around to the south as the ridge passes to the east, although readings will already be well below normal. There may be some patchy fog as well although much of the low level moisture will likely go into dew formation.
This is associated with a weak wave moving over the ridge this afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly downsloping winds will help to get temperatures back over 90 degrees for much of the area. Ahead of the main cold front winds will shift to the northwest during the afternoon.
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A reinforcing cold front will push southeast across the area tonight.
A weak cold front is draped over the Appalachian mountains and southwestward across central Mississippi and Louisiana and coastal Texas.
1118 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A strong cold front will approach tonight and cross the region Monday morning.
621 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Pleasant late summer weather continues tonight and Monday as high pressure slides across the area. Weak return southerly flow on the back side of this feature will keep tonight's temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than last night, while highs on Monday rise into the lower to middle 80s.
910 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 High pressure will provide cooler and much less humid conditions through the first half of the week. A mid-level trough axis will push through tonight as a surface cold front moves well east. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday with high pressure in control.
Warm high pressure aloft and cooler air at the surface overnight are leading up to dry and stable conditions. GAH PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION: The initial upper-level pattern has a ridge riding over eastern Montana tonight. This will be pushed along by a closed low trough swinging across the Canadian Rockies. Today the hot desert air moved towards the north to cause the thermal boundary to move north as a warm front. Monday night the spinning upper low shifts into Saskatchewan, just above the International Border, sending a cold front across the local area.
1206 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will provide cooler and much less humid conditions through the first half of the week. A mid-level trough axis will push through tonight as a surface cold front moves well east. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday with high pressure in control.
640 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure is over Arkansas now with the stalled front across north Texas and north Louisiana. Morning to early afternoon rain has pushed out of AR, as the drier and cooler air behind the cold front has gradually filtered into AR. The upper low pressure trough deepened enough to allow the cold front to push all the way through AR and finally end the rain.
This will set up a southerly flow across western Kansas which will begin to draw slightly warmer air northward into the area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) tonight. Precip chances return Monday evening as medium range models indicate a series of weak H5 vort maxima lifting northeast across the Southern Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas early in the time period. A prevailing low level southerly flow will slowly draw moisture into central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of a strengthening lee side trough in eastern Colorado with H85 dewpoints climbing above 10C.
810 PM PDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A dry cold front will move through the Inland Northwest this evening, causing windy conditions and elevated fire danger. Expect much cooler temperatures on Monday.
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Weak high pressure will continue to move east out of the forecast area as low pressure develops in the lee of the Canadian and Northern rockies tonight. a western ridge continued to expand eastward into the western Plains. Meanwhile an upper level low/trough was over southern British Columbia. Tonight and Monday the upper level ridge remains and builds over the Northern Plains as the British Columbia low moves east across the southern Canadian Rockies. This will allow quick warming with mixing of the low levels to well above 10,000 feet. Looking at high temperatures in the low to mid 90s over western and most of central ND with afternoon relative humidities as low as 15 to 20 percent.