Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A frontal system, associated with a trough of low pressure aloft, will give mostly cloudy conditions to the area through tonight.
Shower chances return as an upper trough approaches for the weekend.
WV imagery this morning depicts an area of +PV over the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a weaker area over the north- central/northeast Gulf.
Thunderstorm development will focus on the warm front lifting back north and along remnant outflow boundaries from this mornings convection.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): A weak 500mb low/inverted trough across eastern Mexico this morning will bring some low to mid level moisture towards northeast Mexico and the CWA today.
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Bermuda high pressure will keep warm and moist southerly flow over the region through the week. A weak cold front will approach the Carolinas late in the week and likely stall out over the area.
A cold front will usher in cooler and less humid conditions for the end of the week.
Today Through Wednesday Night Pattern has become less unsettled as high pressure temporarily strengthens over Arkansas from the southern Plains. Under the high, it will be mostly dry today and Wednesday, and temperatures will be a little above average. This will happen as a weak cold front sags southward toward the region.
Expect warm and dry weather through the weekend as high pressure remains in place across the southwest United States.
Mostly sunny and seasonably hot today, with highs mainly in the lower 90s, with mid to upper 90s along the Oklahoma border.
310 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Current water vapor satellite imagery depicts a weak upper level low over Northeastern Arkansas. This low is less organized than it once was as it continues to shift east. Closer to the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the Atlantic is resulting in southerly flow and warm overnight temperatures. Drier conditions will prevail as the day continues and the weak upper low continues to lift out of the area. There will be a lull in active weather on Wednesday as zonal flow aloft sets up and high pressure filters in at the surface.
305 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal away from the coast by the middle of the week as high pressure aloft builds into the region. Low pressure aloft may build back into the West Coast this upcoming weekend, supporting cooler conditions.
A weak upper low continues to slowly lift newd over the OH River valley. Best chances will be over northeast MO/west central IL where low level moisture pools ahead of approaching cold front.
Although there are discrepancies in location and timing, GFS/ECMWF show a series of ripples moving through the flow as mid-upper level troughing remains over the southeast/lower Mississippi Valley.
418 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure will continue to influence the region's weather through Wednesday with warming temperatures and increasing humidity.
317 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge stretching from northern Mexico to East Texas will bring dry and hot weather to the forecast area through tonight. 15 (Wednesday through Tuesday) Large upper ridge across the southwest into west Texas will remain the dominant feature through the week and into the weekend. Will see afternoon/evening storms to the west of the area off and on in the higher terrain, which may bring a few clouds over the area.
338 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Warmer and more humid weather this week with increasing showers and thunderstorms. Cold front crosses late in the week.
107 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas through the week as high pressure remains southeast over the Atlantic. Tonight: Fairly quiet conditions are expected for most of the area between Atlantic high pressure centered off the Southeast coast and a trough of low pressure inland.
The upper level shear axis has moved farther east of the area leaving more of the ridge in control across S TX.
KDRT will again be close to the lower cloud deck but it could just miss the terminal as it did this morning. The ridge axis is centered in northern Mexico and extends into West Texas. There is a weak trough axis across East Texas but no rain is expected to be generated due to poor moisture values. For tomorrow, the ridge axis will begin to translate east with a 594dm contour centered near El Paso.
Look for another very warm and sticky afternoon with temps well into the 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s are not out of the question and mid level lapse rates will be quite steep, so CAPE values in excess of 3000 j/kg are possible. Current thinking is that storms will trigger along a pre-frontal trough somewhere to the west or southwest of the MKX forecast area.
As has been advertised for several model runs, the greatest rain chances will materialize Wednesday night as an upper low tracking across southern Canada pushes a stronger cold front southeastward toward Illinois.
A broad and complex long wave trough extending from the northern Great Plains west to the Gulf of Alaska will slowly retreat north through Wednesday night as a flat but strong ridge pushes up from the south. a short wave embedded in the the trough is now moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest. It will also be cooler. Weak offshore flow will develop Tuesday night The ridge will then take over.
The incoming trough has produced 30m height falls at 500mb over the past few hours with steepening mid-level lapse rates. The 0-1 km shear isn't bad either with 15-30kts along the warm front from the Twin Cities to Redwood Falls and low LCLs. Therefore there is a tornado threat near the warm front in MN. Temperatures aren't much cooler behind the cool front that passes through tonight and Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see southwest flow aloft which keeps low chances of precipitation in the forecast, especially on Wednesday, along the MN/IA border, this area will remain near the front.
234 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. High pressure over the area this evening. Biggest problem for Tues is whether there will be any shra and, if so, how much of an area will they cover? Have decided to add about 10pct to the higher elevations.
Stacked low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan with only a few showers along the Canadian border in the wrap around flow. The cool airmass remains in place today with the continued cyclonic flow behind the low pressure system. Gradient expected to ease tonight as the low pressure moves into Manitoba, allowing winds to drop below lake wind criteria in the evening.
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Hot and humid airmass awaiting immediately upstream is poised to spread into Southeast Michigan beginning today as deep layer flow turns southwesterly in the wake of the departing ridge that is presently overhead. The column will undergo both warming and moistening during the day yielding high temperatures in the low 90s and apparent Ts in the mid 90s. The highlight will instead be very warm and muggy overnight conditions characterized by lows in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints near 70.
653 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A warm front slowly lifts north across the area today.
246 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Early this morning an upper level trough was lifting northeast across the eastern plains into the upper midwest. A combination of lift from the departing H5 trough and convergence ahead of the front has lead to the development of scattered strong storms across northeast and north central KS. Highs Today will be slightly cooler with lower to mid 90s, though the dewpoints may rise to into the mid 70s along and south of the front across east central KS. On Wednesday another cold front will approach the forecast area from the north as a mid level trough tracks over southern Canada.
641 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Warmer and more humid weather this week with increasing showers and thunderstorms. Cold front crosses late in the week.
Winds will be gusty in the 25-30 knot range today as the forecast area becomes situated in tight pressure gradient between canadian low pressure and an area of high pressure passing to the south centered over Iowa. An area of low pressure rotating over Canada will sweep a cold front into northern MInnesota Wednesday, bringing a return of Showers and thunderstorms to the borderland zones during the afternoon/evening. Cooler with a chance for light rain showers through the rest of the work week, then warmer this weekend with a chance for showers and storms.
332 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 The surface cold front that contributed to development of severe thunderstorms yesterday has not entirely exited the area as of yet, and could fuel a few thunderstorms near the southeastern border of the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures, although cooler, will still top out around near normal values in the low to mid 80s, under mostly sunny skies and breezy westerly winds.
A weak upper trough remains over the lower Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, a diffuse warm front was disintegrating as it moved northeast of KY.
106 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure will build east and crest over the area tonight. The high will slide offshore on Tuesday, setting up a warm southwesterly wind over New England.
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Convection continues to develop slowly south along a weakening cold front early this morning as it pushes east across southern parts of the area at 07z. Boundary in the south basically washes out by evening with remaining convection shifting east across Missouri as weak mid level wave moves across the lower Missouri Valley. Focus for storm development shifts back north by Wednesday morning as next cold front approaches the northeast Nebraska border then tracks toward the southeast Nebraska border during the day. More thunderstorms are possible for the area with this boundary as it works south across the area during the day with support from an amplifying upper trough moving into the upper Midwest.
The remnants of a weak mid level trough was evident as per IR satellite imagery, extending eastward from west through east Tennessee. Have lowered pops into the lower chance/slight chance category across the forecast area today. The models are still indicating that the remaining influence of the mid level trough should be waning by this afternoon. The low level southwest flow will continue through Wednesday across the region with mainly afternoon widely scattered/low chance pops expected mainly along and east of Interstate 65 toward the higher terrain areas due to orographic lifting.
Longer-wave pattern continues to show ridging over the eastern CONUS, and so far that ridging continues to win the battle with a remnant MCV and pooled moisture along a decaying sfc boundary in the Tennessee Valley. Even with the low-level jet cranked up to 30 kt, the convection advertised by the hi-res models is still failing to materialize over western Kentucky, so forecast confidence actually continues to decrease. Dewpoints rising into the lower 70s will push afternoon heat indices near 100.
242 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 08z surface analysis had low near CYDN with trough into northeast MT. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SK. Today, surface and upper low move little, but they will spin a trough into far northern reaches of the CWA late. Temperatures will be 5-10F warmer than yesterday with downslope flow. Wednesday, slightly cooler temperatures expected.
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A warm front slowly lifts north across the area today.
402 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2016 High pressure over the eastern seaboard this morning will continue to dominate the North Country's weather through the first half of Wednesday.
Brief MVFR conditions will develop across portions of the lower Rio Grande valley and the northern ranchlands early Tuesday morning. expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of tonight through Tuesday even as a 500mb low/inverted trough across eastern Mexico allows low to mid level moisture to increase across portions of northeast Mexico. /issued 207 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Strong high pressure centered aloft near southeast AZ/southwest NM will continue to exert a dry, subsident influence on deep south TX through the period.
440 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate through the weekend. Temperatures remain quite warm, mainly in the lower 80s, and low temperatures may again near record warm levels today.
Upper ridge amplification over the Great Lakes, in response to Northern Plains troughing, will maintain warm temperature today as southerly flow improves the moisture supply.
The culprit of the breezy conditions is a deep surface lee trough produced by strong westerly flow across the Central Rockies. A few sprinkles are possible across the northern and eastern zones today as a weak short wave rotates around the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over Northern Mexico. The upper ridge will build east across the state tonight through Wednesday and bring a continuation of hot and mainly rain-free weather.
Another upper level trough will then cool inland temperatures slightly for the upcoming weekend. With a mostly zonal flow aloft, conditions today will be similar to those yesterday with 60s at the coast where some low clouds will persist near or just off the coast to the lower 90s inland under sunny skies.
136 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Southeastern Michigan placement within the main mid to upper level ridge axis will maintain quiet aviation weather this period. Temperatures throughout the lower portion of the column will increase a couple more degrees, supporting a push to 90F for highs. Instability (CAPE approaching 2kJ/kg) will gain some depth on Wednesday in advance of an approaching cold front.
/issued 419 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016/ This Afternoon-Tonight: Low level ridge has lifted a little further north today, allowing for flow to back a little more easterly than yesterday. Tuesday: Deep layer subtropical ridge will continue to be the main driver of the local weather into mid week. Coverage of showers and storms on Tuesday will be a toss up between the suppressive effects of the mid level ridge as it builds westwards across the peninsula and a little deeper moisture rotating around its base into South Florida. Light southerly flow will allow both the Gulf and east coast sea breezes to push inland, with the highest coverage of storms over the interior. Afternoon highs remain warm, but closer to normal in the low-mid 90s.
The cold front which sparked the convection last night is still well to the west across eastern NE extending swwd into central Kansas. This will leave the area in a very moist environment today with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will finally force the aforementioned cold front towards the area Wednesday afternoon.
Water vapor shows upper low over far nern MT with dry sw flow aloft extending into the nrn plains. Pcpn in our nwrn zones will end by early this evening with high pressure building in overnight with rather cool lows expected. High pressure on Tuesday will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. During the second half of the week, upper low over the Pacific Northwest will slide slowly east-southeast into the Northern Rockies. Flow aloft over the high plains will eventually become west-southwest, with weak disturbances passing over the region.
This would make sense when you combine the high dew points with the fact that an upper level trough will traverse the region over the next several hours.
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure will rebuild over the region this week bringing a warming trend with dry conditions and lighter winds. Temperatures will trend warmer but should run below normal levels today with a prevailing cooling onshore flow. Temperatures should rise to near seasonal levels tomorrow as a ridge over north Mexico expands NW into CA.
202 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A weak surface boundary over the northern Midlands of SC will shift a little farther north into NC today, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north into our region through Wednesday. The upper ridge will weaken some late week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. Upper ridge centered to our SE over the Bahamas, with ridge axis extending NW towards SC, appears will build slightly into our region from the south today.
Though high pressure will be shifting during the day, dry conditions are expected across western and north central Nebraska. North central NE overnight will be seeing moisture spread into the area in the lower levels with dew points at the surface increasing to the lower 60s in the southeast half of the CWA. This will drive the front back south as a cold front into Kansas, where it will become stationary until it returns north as a warm front this weekend.
The troughing will be enough, when combined with daytime heating, to spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms over portions of the CWA this afternoon, and again Wednesday afternoon. As far as temperatures are concerned, highs both today and Wednesday will top out in the low and middle 90s. Lows both tonight and Wednesday night will bottom out in the low to middle 70s.
A weak upper trough will remain across the western Tennessee Valley/mid Mississippi Valley through tonight. Weak waves moving out of the trough will help provide some forcing for convection.
Temperatures are likely to approach 90 tomorrow and Wednesday before cooler and drier air move over the region late in the week. A cold front in the Plains will generate storms in MN/IA/Wrn WI tonight that will largely dissipate by Tuesday morning. The higher chance of strong/severe storms looks to be Wednesday when the cold front moves through. An upper low across the Northern Rockies today migrates to the east of Hudson Bay by the weekend with a mean trough axis extending south into the central Great Lakes.
632 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A weak surface boundary over the northern Midlands of SC will shift a little farther north into NC today, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north into our region through Wednesday. The upper ridge will weaken some late week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. Upper ridge centered to our SE over the Bahamas, with ridge axis extending NW towards SC, appears will build slightly into our region from the south today.
358 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2016 High pressure over the eastern seaboard this morning will continue to dominate the North Country's weather through the first half of Wednesday.
253 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will maintain slightly below average high temperatures today.
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Weak high pressure centered just north of the region, will slide east and off the coast Tuesday morning. A warm front slowly lifts through the local area late tonight through Wednesday night. High pressure located off the Southeast coast will dominate later in the week. Expect chances for showers and tstms acrs the region Tue into early Thu morning, as a combination of increasing lo level moisture and decent lift accompany a warm front that slowly moves NNE acrs the area. Bulk of moisture/pcpn will push off the cst Thu morning into early Thu aftn, with hot and humid conditions expected for the remainder of the day, as SSW winds associated with a lee trough set up ovr the region.
135 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2016 High pressure remains in control today through the first half of Wednesday.
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Dry weather will continue tonight under departing high pressure. A southerly flow developing behind the high will bring increasing humidity and the chance for thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The 19Z sfc analysis shows the SD low centered from Faulk through Beadle to Hutchinson Counties, with a trough extending east near the Cheyenne River and Cherry Creek. Finally starting to get some better clearing across central SD this afternoon, which will result in better mixing and increasing westerly winds behind the cold front. Concentrated the highest winds over the north and northwestern corner of the forecast area as high pressure quickly surges in from the west-northwest. The medium range models keep the general trend of northwest flow over the area transitioning to a ridge pattern later in the period.
228 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Models prog a slight expansion of the upper ridge northeastward with slight strengthening over the forecast area. The complication of the boundary suggests temperatures on the caprock will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Ridge ridge ridge. Upper ridge stretching from the Pacific to the Atlantic will remain entrenched over the region.
357 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 An upper low continues to spin over southeastern SK this morning. An upper wave rotating around the low is pushing north across MN this morning. The main upper low will drift east across southern SK and into MB. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to in the vicinity of the low today. enhanced by a weak wave rotating eastward around the low across northern ND and into northern MN. Temps will be in the low to mid 70s north to low 80s south this afternoon.
Early this morning as a weak/broad H5 trough drifts across the area scattered convection is possible generally over the southeast half of our CWA where moisture will be deepest and lapse rates are more favorable. Tonight should be dry due to lack of deep moisture and weak H5 ridging.
234 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Warmer and more humid weather this week with increasing showers and thunderstorms. Cold front crosses late in the week.
As the lower atmosphere begins to cool and decouple some with the approach of sunset, we expect gusts to diminish below advisory criteria (until they possibly pick up again Tuesday). The main weather feature will be an anomalously cold upper low that will track across northern North Dakota tonight and tuesday.
Ridging from the Bermuda high extends well westward into our area at the lower levels, with a rift between the Bermuda high and another area of high pressure over the southwestern states that's left our area under the influence of a weak upper level trough. Influence from this weak upper level trough will be quite limited however, and the main forcing will be from smaller scale factors such as our diurnal seabreeze fronts and from outflow boundaries and boundary collisions. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 90s (and max apparent temperatures around 100) and lows in the mid 70s.
305 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure will rebuild over the region this week bringing a warming trend with dry conditions and lighter winds. Temperatures will trend warmer but should run below normal levels today with a prevailing cooling onshore flow. Temperatures should rise to near seasonal levels tomorrow as a ridge over North Mexico expands NW into CA.
stacked low pressure continues to spin, centered over far south central Canada. We remain under the influence of the upper level low on Wednesday with a breezy west-northwest wind. More wrap around moisture will push south into the state along a secondary cold front, resulting in extensive cloudiness north to south along with chances for showers.
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to move east away from the area. A warm front will lift northeast across the area today.
Afternoon highs will rise into the 90s for the lower elevations.
353 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Wrapped up 990mb low over southern Manitoba with a cold front now well to the east will result in westerly flow in the low levels.
255 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 More typical afternoon and evening zephyr winds return to northeast California and western Nevada today as weak low pressure moves by to the north. Winds are expected to weaken for Wednesday as high pressure strengthens overhead.