Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 450 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ Current water vapor imagery indicates a trough across the western CONUS, and a dome of high pressure over the southeast, resulting in continued southwesterly flow aloft over the region. High resolution guidance suggests the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain to the southwest this afternoon, though activity should gradually weaken as it moves northeastward off of the higher terrain. In addition to the chances for precipitation today, breezy to windy conditions are also expected, especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. As the western CONUS trough nears the region on Tuesday, temperatures will cool slightly, though still remain above normal with highs in the 60s and 70s for most.
The first band will set up across portions of the western Sandhills and Pine Ridge region. The Pine Ridge region could see wind chills approach 25 below zero. Afternoon temperatures will remain chilly with forecasted highs ranging from the single digits across Pine Ridge to the upper teens south of I-80.
The associated cold front on the front side of the trough is near a KSGU-KRKS line and is moving little. The main trough will slide roughly east today, pushing the cold front out of the forecast area by this evening. Some concern remains for lake enhancement tonight as well due a cold airmass (700 mb temps progged to drop to as low as -17C tonight and -20C by sunrise) moving over a much warmer lake with decent low level moisture. Snow will tend to taper off during the day Tuesday as the main trough exits, allowing weak high pressure to temporarily move back in.
Current temp trends just a little warmer than what was previously expected at this time.
Precipitable water imagery shows an area of higher moisture off the Lower Texas Coast moving towards SE Texas. Even Galveston Bay may act to lower ceilings due to moisture riding over the cooler waters which then advect towards KHOU/KIAH. Cloud cover has been a bit more sparse so far today when compared to previous days, and temperatures have been trending a bit warmer.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across the CWA, however the cold front was situated one row of counties to the west with tempertures in the 30s and 40s. The models are differing in that aspect with the GFS showing almost no precipitation within the sub-freezing air and NAM showing still quite a bit. We have gone with a blend of the models which will bring in some freezing rain on the back edge of the main area of rainfall.
309 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Current radar shows some weak echoes across the area and the HRRR, which handled yesterday pretty well, shows precipitation increasing this evening mainly south of I-20 due to increasing lift from an approaching trough and favorable upper jet placement. The trough is also causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains which should continue into Tuesday morning, so have extended the High Wind Warning through 18Z Tue.
127 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. 5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of the atmospheric column. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely. Good southerly flow and building heights across the region will result in temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland locations topping out in the lower 80s.
Strong southwesterly winds and cooling temperatures will occur today as a cold front crosses the region.
245 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Strong cold front currently located near a OKC/BVO line is expected to stall by late afternoon/early evening and begin moving back north as a warm front. More widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected by Tuesday morning as the cold front pushes back south into northeast Oklahoma.
316 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Snow is ongoing across the central, and portions of the western CWA as of 20Z between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north. By Tuesday night, the dominating 500mb low over much of northeastern Canada will have a trough spread out from the west coast through the northern plains and down through much of Mexico.
Tonight A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain was noted across much of the region. The only exception was across portions of Waushara, Winnebago, Calumet and Manitowoc counties where air temperatures were still several degrees above freezing. Road temperatures well above freezing from Wautoma to Green Bay/Fox Cites east to the lake. Latest road temperature forecast have road temperatures dropping below freezing early this evening, thus motorist should anticipate slick conditions. To the north and west of the Fox Valley, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain was occurring. For tonight, the steadier precipitation should taper off by mid evening to freezing drizzle, except across the far north where some light snow is possible. However, think freezing drizzle will be back on the increase again late tonight as the next system approaches from the southwest.
258 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 WV imagery was showing a longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southern CA coastline along with a subtropical moisture feed streaming northeastward from the southern Plains to New England. At the surface, low pressure was centered over southeast IA with a strong colds front extending into northern then to central OK. With the onset of precip, soundings show the dominate precip type will be light freezing rain over the central/southern CWA, with a mix of light freezing drizzle/sleet to the north before making a change over to all snow shortly after midnight.
Some of the models return the boundary northward as a warm front due to cyclogenesis. Feel this might be a bit aggressive and took the cooler solution guidance. The bottom line is that there is uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for today. The good news is that with the cooler temps, fire weather concerns should be lower if the evolution of temps go as anticipated.
The high will move farther east with return flow moving temperatures back toward average with highs in the 20s over the south Thu and everywhere by Fri.
318 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. 5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of the atmospheric column. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely.
329 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Aside from the breezy and record warm conditions, the main story in the near term is the high precipitable water levels and therefore heavy rain potential, mainly Tuesday night. The higher elevations of the Ozark Foothills may receive spotty icing Wed and Wed night as colder air surges in.
The upstream cold front will begin to surge southeast on Tuesday, However, surface temperatures will remain above freezing through the day, so any precipitation Tuesday will fall in liquid form.
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the east.
307 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Winds will begin to ease around sunset tonight but remain out of the southwest most of the day tomorrow keeping temperatures above the normal but cooler than today. Unfortunately the cold front will keep any deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to our east and south east.
A tightening pressure gradient between strong high pressure ridging through the east and southeast CONUS, and low pressure extending through the plains will maintain strong and gusty southerly winds. A trough is over the western half of the country. Through Tuesday the ridge will erode somewhat with the upper trough shifting slightly east.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue today as a cold front sweeps across the region.
400 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 A deep trough continues to dig over the western CONUS this afternoon. Broad southwesterly flow downstream of this trough is advecting mid/upper-level moisture from the eastern Pacific into the region. Winds may diminish slightly around sunset, but will increase overnight as the low-level jet intensifies.
1153 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today.
1129 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Upper level southwesterly flow will slowly strengthen over the region as a trough digs into the western United States. Most areas should see high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, with a few locations along the I-49 corridor warming into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
This means it should be a couple of degrees cooler tomorrow for areas west of I-65, compared to today. Temperatures will warm slightly as the upper ridge becomes a little more influential, but we should only top out in the low to mid 80s at any point this week.
Lows tonight will fall into the 50s to lower 60s with highs on Monday reaching the lower 70s north to the mid 80s in the south.
This additional cloud cover could keep temperatures slightly warmer than previously forecast, so I increased overnight lows just a degree or two in most places.
The low-level wind shear threshold might be briefly met at KGAG and KWWR tonight; however any period of 30 knots or greater low-level wind shear is expected to be too brief to include in TAFs. The low-level wind shear threshold might be briefly met at KGAG and KWWR tonight due to a 50 to 55 knot southerly low-level jet at ~2000 ft AGL; however, with forecast winds speeds at ~25 knots, any period of 30 knots or greater low-level wind shear would be too brief to include in TAFs.
The 12Z DVN sounding exposed several very dry layers in the lower troposphere, which should help evaporate most of rain as it falls. Monday Warm and breezy as low pressure tracks into Minnesota. For E Iowa/NW Illinois, expect highs in the low to mid 80s and winds of 15-30 mph.
1134 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Jet streak currently rounding the base of the main Rockies trough, will lift E-NE, late this afternoon and this evening, helping to push a cold frontal boundary into NW KS. Warm and windy weather will be the main story for late tonight through Mon as the upper level trough across the Rockies deepens over the next 24 hours. As this trough deepens, pressure gradient across the plains will tighten. As the winds increase on Mon, still some uncertainty on the position of the cold frontal boundary expected to be located across north central KS.
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the new work week. Many of the zones/counties across the north and west have reached freezing last night - a list is included below in the climate section. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop.
A low pressure system was pushing away from the region and behind the system. Some clearing to the west will result in overnight temps falling below freezing at some locations such as across central oregon where a freeze warning is in effect.
/issued 403 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017/ High pressure at the surface is located over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US.
*Breezy winds along ridge tops in the coastal mountains, Cascades, and the Shasta Valley tomorrow. Snow levels will be around 4500 to 5500 feet tonight, that a light dusting of snow could occur in the higher elevations such as Crater Lake. Meanwhile, temperatures will be cool enough that brief, patchy frost could occur overnight in a few of the valleys in Siskiyou County, as well as for some of the higher elevations around Ashland in Oregon.
The low-level wind shear threshold might be briefly met at KGAG and KWWR tonight due to a 50 to 55 knot southerly low-level jet at ~2000 ft AGL; however, with forecast winds speeds at ~25 knots, any period of 30 knots or greater low-level wind shear would be too brief to include in TAFs.
702 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Upper level southwesterly flow will slowly strengthen over the region as a trough digs into the western United States. Most areas should see high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, with a few locations along the I-49 corridor warming into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
903 PM EDT Sun Oct 01 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north through mid week. 850mb moisture advecting inland within the low-level ENELY flow will result in a scattered to broken stratocu layer across the southern counties underneath a thin cirrus cirrus canopy spreading eastward atop the building ridge axis. Lows tonight should average a couple of degrees warmer than last night, ranging from mid 40s north to lower 50s south. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue right through this part of the forecast.
An amplified upper ridge should keep the Great Valley in a vfr mode through the forecast period. ridge and an area of low pressure over Central America will be funneling moisture northwest between the to pressure systems.
High pressure dominates the Atlantic seaboard this afternoon, and increasingly southerly winds and mid/high level clouds are edging into the Midwest. Not only warmer with southerly winds, but increased cloud cover will limit radiation. The broad trough that is currently over the western half of the CONUS will be the driving force of this forecast. Waves moving out of this trough will ripple from SW to NE, resulting in a boundary and several smaller waves to follow until the main low moves out of the SW.
Again, the highest chances will be over western and northern portions of the area. Heights will rise on Monday in response to the upper level ridge building over the Ohio Valley. Temps may remain a bit cooler from parts of southeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin where more clouds along with at least some potential exists for showers/storms through the day closer to the moisture axis. The highest rain chances should remain west of the area though the day, though.
954 PM PDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds early this week.
A large area of high pressure centered over the eastern great lakes and southern New England will dominate our weather through mid week as it moves to the middle Atlantic coast.
1254 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days.
WV imagery this afternoon was showing a large upper low encompassing the wrn/cntrl CONUS with a downstream ridge situated over the ern CONUS. elongated low pressure extended from s-cntrl Canada-wrn Dakotas-wrn KS.
Behind the wave, there will be brief ridging which will bring a lull in shower activity this evening. Overnight lows range from the upper 40s along the Tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead, to the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
This low topped activity has even had a few lightning strikes over the last couple hours but was predominately showers.
Trended towards the warmer MAV guidance for highs, especially across east-central Wisconsin where there will be more glimpses of the sun. Starting Monday night the upper pattern consists of an upper ridge over the eastern section of the country and a deep but fragmenting upper trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains.
1146 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Warm air advection ahead of a deep upper trough to the west produced several areas of showers through the day today, but this activity is finally clearing out as the best mid-level moisture shifts into Iowa. Additional showers and storms will likely develop later tonight ahead of a slow-moving cold front advancing across Nebraska. Upper trough to the west will gradually become more sheared in nature and edge eastward through the middle of the week which will allow the boundary to the west to slowly edge southeast into our area.
At this time cannot rule out the possibility of very localized areas of heavy rains given the high PWs/slow storm motions, but the lack of specific focus- ing mechanism should prevent widespread heavy rains. POPS will then be tapering off Weds as moisture levels decrease/ upper ridge begins building in from the east. Drier/warmer temps are expected during the second half of the week as the ridge set- tles over the area. 41 Roughly easterly flow continues across the Gulf between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, and will continue for some time.
Broad upper trough situated over the northern intermountain west, centered over the Yellowstone NP area, with a high pressure ridge building towards the California coast from the eastern Pacific. The San Francisco Bay Area is portioned in between these two features, with clockwise flow around the ridge and counterclockwise flow around the trough converging into a dry, gusty northerly flow over Northern California.
This will quickly overspread western and southwest Nebraska this evening, and expect rapid development of thunderstorms along a pacific cold front that extends from west of O'Neill to near Ogallala.
Currently, large trough of low pressure remains over the western CONUS with strong southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Strong embedded S/WV impulses rotating around the trough and lifting northeast across the region resulting in showers across eastern MT/western ND and across the upper Mississippi. Clearing has been occurring the past few hours along the trough axis and has led to CU development over south central ND.
658 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Jet streak currently rounding the base of the main Rockies trough, will lift E-NE, late this afternoon and this evening, helping to push a cold frontal boundary into NW KS. Warm and windy weather will be the main story for late tonight through Mon as the upper level trough across the Rockies deepens over the next 24 hours. As this trough deepens, pressure gradient across the plains will tighten. As the winds increase on Mon, still some uncertainty on the position of the cold frontal boundary expected to be located across north central KS.
635 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure dominates the Atlantic seaboard this afternoon, and increasingly southerly winds and mid/high level clouds are edging into the Midwest. Not only warmer with southerly winds, but increased cloud cover will limit radiation. The broad trough that is currently over the western half of the CONUS will be the driving force of this forecast. Waves moving out of this trough will ripple from SW to NE, resulting in a boundary and several smaller waves to follow until the main low moves out of the SW.
Lows tonight in the mid 40s to lower 50s will be common, although typically cooler low areas will likely dip into the lower 40s. Monday will again feature mostly sunny skies, with high pressure forcing deeper moisture west of central KY and southern IN.
1253 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A weak back door cold front will cross the region from eastern Quebec overnight. High pressure will then continue build across the region through mid week. Low and mid clouds associated with the cold front are slowly spreading southward, dissipating as they do so. A weakening cold front will move south across the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Monday with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures Monday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 north to the lower to mid 60s Downeast. Cool high pressure builds in Monday night with another chilly night. Right now, looks like a solid frost but unsure if it will get to freezing.
748 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will be in control of our weather for the next several days, bringing sunny days and clear nights with valley fog. Mainly clear skies will continue Monday night though not as cold with lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 76 60 82 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0.
This orientation got snow going on time to a few hours early over the higher elevations of Moffat and Routt counties.
Winds and seas will continue to increase from the east through the overnight period as the trough across the waters weakens and shifts off to the west, as a strong high pressure system builds into the region. This will likely need to be expanded for the Monday and beyond period as the strong ridge remains in place across the week.
800 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A light south to southeast breeze will keep overnight temperatures warmer than the past couple nights.
741 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures to begin the new workweek. Many of the zones/counties across the north and west have reached freezing last night - a list is included below in the climate section. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop.
Strong high pressure remains centered over the far Eastern Great Lakes region late this afternoon. Michigan is firmly under the control of strong low level ridging and subsidence. Only moisture to speak of is some increasing upper level moisture streaming into our state well in advance of low pressure developing over the Plains states. Southerly winds and WAA continues to slowly strengthen as the low level pressure gradient gradually tightens across the Western Great Lakes region between the two systems. High temps Monday afternoon will range from the upper 60s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 70s in Northern Lower Michigan despite increasing high cloudiness.
At the surface, low pressure is located across the central Dakotas with a cold front extending south across Nebraska. Temperatures at 2pm are holding in the 70s across far south central SD, but are cooling fast into the 50s behind the cold front to the west. Cooler air will continue to filter into the area, with low temperatures falling into the 30s to mid 40s. Highs Monday will range from the 40s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 60s over south central SD. Tuesdays highs will be just a few degrees cooler. Frost and possible freezing temps will be possible over western areas Monday night if precipitation and cloud cover shift a little further east.
Area of low pressure responsible for generating the showers/thunderstorms heading north-northeast toward the forecast area is lifting through western NE at this time. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s east. High temperatures on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s as cooler air settles in behind the exiting frontal boundary. We will start this time period with what we've been dealing with for quite some time now, a 500mb ridge over the eastern U. and a significant trough over the rest of the nation.
instability has been building ahead of an approaching cold front. With the cold front expected to stall across the local area tomorrow. with highs in the lower 60s forecast for our north.
841 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures to begin the new workweek. Many of the zones/counties across the north and west have reached freezing last night - a list is included below in the climate section. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop.
632 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 233 PM CDT Overall quiet conditions are expected through Monday, albeit turning warmer. While higher level clouds will continue to be streaming over the region tonight into Monday, warm air advection will continue to pump in a warmer airmass into Monday. As a result temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs on Monday should mainly be in the low 80s across the area.
/issued 203 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017/ A return to warmer than normal conditions while remaining somewhat unsettled is forecast for the next several days. Aloft, a blocky and slightly retrogressive pattern is forecast, with an increase in upper level ridging forecast this week. Isolated to scattered mainly diurnal convection is also forecast as the combination of surface convergence near a lee trough, abundant moisture through the column, and daytime heating/weak tropical impulses coming out of the Gulf are expected.