Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some lingering isolated/scattered roughly along a line from KIMT to KSAW as noted on radar seems like this could be aided by upper divergence in right entrance region of the 140+ kt upper jet max across James Bay into northern Quebec and ahead of the mid-upper level trough axis. Expect these lingering showers to generally dissipate by early evening with the loss of weak diurnal heating and increased sfc ridging from the west. Look for min temps mainly in the 40s with the highest readings south central. is still on track for a warm Memorial Day weekend and guidance has trended even a bit warmer.
Above-normal temperatures continue for a few more days before a weekend system brings cooler temperatures.
1140 AM MDT Thu May 26 2022 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota. Upper level ridge is currently building across the Northern Plains. Warm advection continues, with low level thermal ridge peaking Friday. Upper level ridge breaks down Friday with weak impulse moving into the western Dakotas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak cold front slides into the area late in the day. Unsettled pattern setting up for the holiday weekend with slow moving upper trough over the Intermountain West.
1239 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 (Today and tonight) Wrap-around precipitation will be ending across north central Oklahoma this morning as the upper low over southeastern Kansas moves east away from the area. With more sunshine, we will get warmer today, although highs will still be below average for this time of year.
Expect a line of TSRA to move in from the west later this afternoon and evening and have the lowest categories during that time. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 78 59 81 60 / 50 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 76 59 78 59 / 80 40 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 75 57 79 58 / 80 50 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 75 56 75 55 / 100 60 40 10 0 NC.
A ridge aloft will build across the forecast area through Friday, with mainly dry and mild conditions expected, outside of a few showers that are possible early this evening. However, on Friday and into the upcoming weekend, energy will dive into the western CONUS, helping carve out a positive tilt upper trof, and antecedent upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. The first wave to exit the ridge on Friday night will help spark a few storms out west river late afternoon on Friday.
241 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022 A ridge of high pressure is currently moving over the region therefore temperatures are warming and winds are relatively light. Things begin to change tomorrow as the ridge slides eastward allowing the pressure gradient to tighten overhead. Winds will increase across the entire area as we mix into the higher winds aloft so gusts will generally be around 25 to 35 mph. Lows will be much more mild under the ridge.
Meanwhile westerly winds around the base of the low are advecting drier and more subsident air acrs the southern plains and NW Gulf coast.
An upper low with a decently tight pressure gradient continues to slowly move out of the area this afternoon. Winds are expected to begin to decrease late this afternoon/early evening as the low moves out. An upper ridge over the Four Corners region this evening will lift to the northeast through the day tomorrow with northwest flow in place over the Central Plains.
236 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 19Z water vapor showed the upper low finally beginning to move east of the forecast area with it over the Ozarks. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remained north over Canada with the next upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Upper ridging was noted over the southwest and into the central Rockies. Surface obs showed a low pressure center over northeast MO. Models are in good agreement for the low pressure system to continue moving to the east this evening. As it does, the low level clouds should pull out of the area to the east setting up favorable conditions for radiational fog development. The one possible hiccup in the forecast would be if the stratus stalled it's eastward progression and kept the boundary layer warmer than forecast.
134 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Rain chances will gradually increase ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the coast late Friday. Extensive post-frontal clouds this morning, temperatures a little cooler than normal for the season. A weak warm front lifts north today, marginal moisture along I-95 corridor and heating may bring isolated showers to western zones mid to late afternoon, well ahead of large cyclone structure approaching SE states.
1117 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 (Rest of Today) Multiple line segments of convection continue to develop across northwest into western AL, with another along the pre-frontal trough axis in northeast MS. Still, given the slow movement of the mid/upper low over the Ohio Valley, cloud cover will stick around in some capacity even into the day on Friday.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s for most places except for Big Pine and Marathon, where temperatures are in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. As the high pressure slides east and weakens, its hold on the Florida Keys has lessened. Winds have decreased from this morning and will continue to decrease as the high gets further away from the region. Dry air, provided by the low level ridge in place, will continue to filter in overhead, limiting rain chances through the overnight and into Friday. As the aforementioned low pressure system progresses slowly, eastward, moisture will gradually increase from west to east. At the same time, ridging across the Atlantic will build back westward, allowing for additional boundary layer moisture to pivot up from the NW Caribbean.
153 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 The Florida peninsula remains situated between a mid/upper-level low over the plains region and high pressure over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a frontal boundary is approaching the panhandle with high pressure off the New England coast ridging southward. For tonight into Friday, mid-upper troughing moves over the region with the surface boundary dropping across the peninsula, bringing additional rain chances.
The storms have formed along the northern periphery of a cut-off upper low centered over Missouri.
While dew points have mixed out this afternoon, lows tonight won't be as cool as last night given the warmer temperatures this afternoon and expected increase in dew points tonight. Tomorrow will be warmer, with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s and a few location along the Rio Grande and Winter Garden region near 100. Due to the low confidence and very isolated coverage we will not mention at this time.
Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon across much of the area, with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. Look for slightly warmer high temperatures ranging from the low 80s in the southern Red River Valley to the middle 70s near Lake of the Woods.
208 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022 With low pressure moving in off the Pacific, unsettled weather is expected through the upcoming holiday weekend.
1006 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Upper low keeps the pattern unsettled through Friday, with periods of showers and thunderstorms.
19Z water vapor showed the upper low finally beginning to move east of the forecast area with it over the Ozarks. Meanwhile the mean westerlies remained north over Canada with the next upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Upper ridging was noted over the southwest and into the central Rockies. Surface obs showed a low pressure center over northeast MO. Models are in good agreement for the low pressure system to continue moving to the east this evening. As it does, the low level clouds should pull out of the area to the east setting up favorable conditions for radiational fog development. The one possible hiccup in the forecast would be if the stratus stalled it's eastward progression and kept the boundary layer warmer than forecast.
838 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Cold front brings showers and storm chances through Friday.
/Issued 200 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/ An upper level ridge will translate across the Panhandles on Friday. A minor short wave trough will move through this ridge during the afternoon. The low level moisture looks to be lacking.
This afternoon through Friday night An upper level ridge will be over the Cowboy State today. The ridge will track eastward tonight. Weak showers will be possible over western portions, as a cold front approaches. The associated weak cold front will move southward over areas east of the Divide through the afternoon.
545 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Friday bringing unsettled weather. High pressure will then prevail through early week. A field of weak instability will move into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. Friday: A slow moving cold front will eventually make its way through the region before pushing offshore late. Otherwise, with decent rainfall expected and a somewhat slow moving cold front, showers could linger in areas causing low-lying areas to see ponding and/or minor flooding.
540 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022 A ridge of high pressure is currently moving over the region therefore temperatures are warming and winds are relatively light. Things begin to change tomorrow as the ridge slides eastward allowing the pressure gradient to tighten overhead. Winds will increase across the entire area as we mix into the higher winds aloft so gusts will generally be around 25 to 35 mph. Lows will be much more mild under the ridge.
Otherwise, a rather quiet and dry night is expected for our CWA along with cooler than normal morning lows in the 50s at most locations. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: A vertically stacked closed upper low over southern Missouri will lift northeast into Ohio through the forecast period. At the surface, a cold front has pushed through the area with a noticeably drier and cooler airmass spilling into the region. Warp around moisture may foster the development of a few isolated showers across the Highway 82 corridor tonight as the upper low slides by, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected. /TW/ Memorial Day weekend: Mid and upper ridging will increase across the region through this weekend, maintaining dry conditions in our area.
628 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 With upper low invof southern Missouri, scattered to broken stratus will continue at the northern sites, with conds mvfr to ifr at times.
505 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 We are in the midst of active wx attributed to a mature, largely stacked low pressure system over the mid Mississippi Valley late today. In addition, the KJKL 88D shows some speed and directional shear in the lower levels. With the upper level trough/low approaching and the system's surface cold front approaching, showers and thunderstorms have broken out. With the continued approach of the upper low and the surface cold front overnight, more showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop over central KY and head east toward our area around dawn, but will be more of a garden variety.
Upper low pressure system will continue to slowly pinwheel east through the mid MS River Valley and into the the lower OH/Wabash River Valleys tonight. We finally get on the back side of this upper low on Friday. The cloudiness will likely help hold max temperatures in the lower half of the 70s.
739 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Friday bringing unsettled weather. High pressure will then prevail through early week. Friday: A slow moving cold front will eventually make its way through the region before pushing offshore late. Otherwise, with decent rainfall expected and a somewhat slow moving cold front, showers could linger in areas causing low-lying areas to see ponding and/or minor flooding.
/issued 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/ An upper ridge building into the area will keep us dry with weak northwest flow tonight into tomorrow. An upper ridge axis atop the region Friday night will translate downstream of the region this weekend ahead of winds backing more SW aloft. Along with lee troughing poised to our NW during this time, deep, dry and breezy to windy SW flow will boost temps to well above normal values with triple digit highs still in the cards for most of the region Sat and Sun.
Much cooler this afternoon, especially for inland areas as the marine layer has deepened ahead of an incoming trough.
907 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 A retreating high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard has promoted relatively dry and tranquil weather conditions across most of the Keys late this afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, surface heating and warm waters near the lower Keys persuaded a few short-lived showers to develop. The rest of the night, high pressure will continue to slide eastward and away from the region losing its hold on the local weather. High pressure will continue to retreat to the east and away from the region tonight and tomorrow.
Ridging will gradually return through the weekend and continue through the rest of the period, with diurnal sea breeze convection expected each day over land and some lingering storms pushing offshore in the evening.
855 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Low pressure this evening is centered across far western Quebec with an attendant cold front draped back to the southwest. A surface cold front will press in from the northwest through this evening then move ever so slowly southeast tonight. Meanwhile, upper level troughing will continue to extend northward into lower Michigan through tonight. Temperatures will be cooler with lows ranging from the low and mid 40s north to the low and mid 50s southeast.
Temperatures will be much cooler as the highs will be within a few degrees of normal, except 5 to 10 degrees below normal from Baker to Burns.
534 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Cold front brings showers and storm chances today and Friday.
1040 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 An upper low to the west will slide closer on Friday, pushing a cold front through the area.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Friday/ Northwest flow will dominate on the backside of a departing cyclone.
604 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 Warmer weather and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are in store today. A cold front will cross the area Friday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: A vertically stacked closed upper low over southern Missouri will lift northeast into Ohio through the forecast period. At the surface, a cold front has pushed through the area with a noticeably drier and cooler airmass spilling into the region. Warp around moisture may foster the development of a few isolated showers across the Highway 82 corridor tonight as the upper low slides by, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected. /TW/ Memorial Day weekend: Mid and upper ridging will increase across the region through this weekend, maintaining dry conditions in our area.
/issued 648 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/ For the 27/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions will prevail through the period as an upper-level trough continues to the east.
This air should gradually spread ewd into the mid TN Valley later tonight, with the cold front exiting to the east.
738 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 We are in the midst of active wx attributed to a mature, largely stacked low pressure system over the mid Mississippi Valley late today. In addition, the KJKL 88D shows some speed and directional shear in the lower levels. With the upper level trough/low approaching and the system's surface cold front approaching, showers and thunderstorms have broken out. With the continued approach of the upper low and the surface cold front overnight, more showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop over central KY and head east toward our area around dawn, but will be more of a garden variety. A lesser amount of precip will linger through the afternoon and into the night underneath the upper low, but may include some thunderstorms as diurnal destabilization occurs.
737 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 A cold front will cross the area Friday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.
Showers continue on Friday as a closed low tracks across the south. The closed upper low over southern Missouri will continue its slow track east-northeast tonight through Friday. Cooler and more stable conditions are also expected on Friday, so thunder will be even less likely as the low moves into Ohio and the low-level flow shifts northwesterly. Showers taper off Friday night as the low moves into Pennsylvania. Upper ridging returns on Saturday bringing mild and mostly dry weather to kick off the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Short Range models move the showers currently over the region into Virginia and western North Carolina by sunrise with drying conditions but then develop more showers with flow around Ohio Valley upper low over Indiana during the day Friday. Westerly winds will be brisk and gusty at times on Friday at all sites in the wake of a departing cold front. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 81 59 86 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 58 79 59 86 / 40 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 75 56 79 57 85 / 50 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 55 76 54 84 / 70 30 0 0 0 NC.
Associated showers and low stratus will also push eastward this morning, with the chance of showers exiting our far eastern Illinois counties by mid to late afternoon as the low and its associated forcing continue eastward. On Saturday, upper-level ridging will quickly build into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with low-level flow become southerly. In turn, warmer air will begin advecting into the region, leading to temperatures increasing to around climatological normals.
These will end this morning as the low moves to Lake Erie today. Clouds will stick around as the surface and upper low slowly move eastward. This evening upper level ridging pushes in which should clear skies somewhat.
(Today and tonight) The gradual warming trend continues today, with 850 mb temperatures set to climb a little more as the upper level ridge takes hols.
Meanwhile westerly winds around the base of the low are advecting drier and more subsident air acrs the southern plains and NW Gulf coast. The pleasant conditions will continue into the Memorial Day weekend, with another cool morning expected Saturday morning, followed by highs into the lower 90s acrs much of the area Saturday aftn.
229 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Upper level low pressure drifts eastward across Ohio this afternoon into tonight. High pressure returns for Saturday.
316 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 A slow moving mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area continues to drift eastward away from the region. Breezy southerly winds will return to the area today as low pressure deepens across the high plains of eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. Seasonable highs are expected to return with most areas topping out in the low to mid 80s, although those in Russell and Barton counties could see highs top out in the upper 80s.
A ridge aloft will build across the forecast area through Friday, with mainly dry and mild conditions expected, outside of a few showers that are possible early this evening. However, on Friday and into the upcoming weekend, energy will dive into the western CONUS, helping carve out a positive tilt upper trof, and antecedent upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. The first wave to exit the ridge on Friday night will help spark a few storms out west river late afternoon on Friday. Starting off Saturday and through the end of the weekend, the upper air pattern will feature a ridge over the the upper Midwest shifting toward and setting up across the eastern CONUS while a broad upper trough becomes more established across the western CONUS.
There will be a few showers and maybe a storm or two that will develop later today, mainly north of I-40, as the upper low passes by to our immediate north.
319 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 An upper level low over the Wabash Valley early this morning will progress east into Ohio by the end of the day. Moisture wrapping around the back side of this low will maintain the chance for showers mainly east of the Mississippi River today. As the low continues its departure and high pressure builds in from the west, a gradual clearing trend is anticipated tonight. An upper level ridge is progged to build east from the Plains on Saturday, then amplify over the eastern U.
335 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 An open, low-amplitude trough in the mid-level is centered over the Upper Great Lakes this morning on the backside of the low pressure that moved through over the last two days. An area of subsidence behind the eastward moving trough can be seen on infrared satellite imagery this morning and is creating clearing skies over the far western Lake Superior and northwestern WI. P at a 70% chance or higher of temperatures above 90F, records are generally in the low 90s).
Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon across much of the area, with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. Look for slightly warmer high temperatures ranging from the low 80s in the southern Red River Valley to the middle 70s near Lake of the Woods. We are still confident that a return to SW flow downstream of Rockies trough axis will foster moisture advection and attendant instability, but are still uncertain of the strength/magnitude of these critical parameters. The long wave trough will still be west of the forecast area through Tue, with additional forcing associated with the trough putting Memorial Day in play as well. Shower and isolated thunder chances will still be alive on Tue, then once the trough pushes east, unseasonably cool weather will move in for the middle of the week.
Short Range models move the showers currently over the region into Virginia and western North Carolina by sunrise with drying conditions but then develop more showers with flow around Ohio Valley upper low over Indiana during the day Friday. Expect showers to end in next couple hours except at TRI with VFR conditions before MVFR conditions return with lower ceilings behind cold front and more showers late tonight and Friday morning.
Tonight Through Saturday Current visible satellite imagery shows an expansive area of low pressure over portions of Srn MO via widespread stratus spiraling counterclockwise around the feature. Drier and cooler air will advect into the region once winds begin the switch. Friday, the upper cut-off low will pivot into the OH Valley as upper level ridging moves in the MS Valley. High pressure will approach from the W, bringing nice conds (dry and cool) to AR on Friday.
221 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Friday bringing unsettled weather. High pressure will then prevail through early week. Friday: A slow moving cold front will eventually make its way through the region before pushing offshore late. Otherwise, with decent rainfall expected and a somewhat slow moving cold front, showers could linger in areas causing low-lying areas to see ponding and/or minor flooding.
A cold front is expected to push eastward across the area on Friday, clearing out remaining showers and thunderstorms along with it. Dry and calm conditions are expected through the short term in the wake of Friday's cold front. Low temperatures overnight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s.
309 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Currently, the upper low is over southern IL. Showers and clouds rotating around this low will keep low precipitation chance over southern IN and central KY during the day. Winds on the back side of the low will continue veering to the northwest, which will advect cooler air into the CWA. ==================================== Synoptic Overview ==================================== Upper trough axis is forecast to be to the east of the Ohio Valley region by the start of the forecast period. Through the upcoming holiday weekend, mid-level heights will rise across the Ohio Valley as the upper level pattern takes on a trough west, ridge east pattern.
with just some lingering low clouds across far NRN/NERN AR as the closed upper low lifts NE of AR. High pressure will move over the state tonight. Warmer conditions will be seen for Sat as SRLY flow returns. Temps Sat night will be warmer as well.