Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The best area for patchy, locally dense, fog will be along and south of the I-20 corridor and especially in the Highway 84 corridor. The combination of clear skies and light wind beneath the thermal trough will make for ideal overnight cooling, especially over north central MS, and a light freeze is expected there.
114 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 An upper level ridge currently sits over the western CONUS with a trough down stream extending from the Hudson Bay down into the Ohio River Valley. Under the trough in the west is a split flow weak low pressure system just off the coast of southern California and Baja Peninsula. This will aid in a weak surface front that will move into the Panhandles bringing north winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Only saying slightly cooler as temperatures will still be above normal just not as much as today.
High clouds are streaming over the area, with high pressure over the region.
The persistent ridge of high pressure will remain situated to our west with its center over the Great Basin before the center begins to drift southeast overnight. This will result in continued northwest flow aloft along with seasonably warm temperatures tonight as overnight lows trend 4 to 8 degrees above normal in the lower valleys and by 10 to 20 degrees above average in the mountains. Weak cold front will be stalling north of the Bookcliffs and sagging across the Flattops into the Central Valleys early Tuesday morning as it washes out. Limited impact from this front with an increase in cloud cover, possibly a few snow showers near the divide from Vail Pass northward and colder (cooler) temps.
1223 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure will build into the region tonight through Monday, leading to mainly dry conditions. Temperatures to drop to cold lows in the lower and middle 20s. This will allow for the lower level flow to back around the west through Monday afternoon with WAA developing. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows Monday night in the low to mid 30s.
The warm frontal boundary will push through the CWA today, leaving mild temperatures in its wake. Daytime highs should range from around freezing in the northern valley to the upper 40s in southeastern North Dakota. Less overnight sky cover tonight as well as weak NW winds will bring overnight lows into the teens and twenties, about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning. High pressure moves over the area Tuesday, with lighter winds and cooler afternoon highs, mostly in the 30s with far northwestern MN staying below the freezing mark.
Weak low pressure was analyzed over the north central Gulf with a small warm advection zone extending to the east-southeast but falling short of western Cuba. A cold front associated with low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes was moving through the southeast Atlantic coastal states. With high pressure well east in the north Atlantic and the low pressure wave to remain to our west, the cold front should easily move in between these systems into Florida. The increase in winds plus cloud cover also means the forecast low temperatures will likely be reached over the next few hours with the cooler interior island locations bumping upwards a few degrees after midnight. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue Monday through Tuesday, as high pressure will settle across the southeast U.
Some travel issues are likely by tonight in this area as temperatures fall below freezing causing roads to become slippery.
The intense sunshine also add the element of insolation to the equation with a warm up into the mid- upper 60s across our eastern counties to the lower-mid 70s west of I-35/35W.
Very dry conditions with well above normal temperatures will persist through the work week, with minor day to day changes as high pressure dominates. A weak backdoor cold front will slide into the northeast and east central plains on Tuesday, providing 5 to 10 degrees of cooling but with high temperatures still forecast to be above normal. The latest water vapor loop shows an elongated upper level ridge drifting east-southeast from southern NV toward the Four Corners. A large dry intrusion with this ridge will slide over NM Monday as a weak lee- side trough develops over eastern NM. Low temps will however trend warmer to the lee of the central mt chain by Monday night as the ridge breaks down and westerly breezes increase.
145 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS upper ridge continuing to dominate our weather, with next short wave nearing the Pac NW. At the surface, trof has pushed into the eastern Dakotas. Another very mild day in store for today with upper ridge overhead and breezy downslope flow. Aforementioned short wave will quickly ride atop the ridge tonight and push a cool front through the area. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 40s/50s. Warm advection will quickly ensue Tuesday night as upper ridge rebounds in wake of departing short wave.
characterized by deep ridging over the western CONUS, deep troughing over the eastern CONUS, and NW flow aloft over the central CONUS. The ridge will dampen slightly Tuesday as a weak trough moves over the High Plains. A cold front is expected to move across the Tri-State area Tuesday morning. The trough will exit the area Tuesday night as the ridge builds due to the incoming area of high pressure on the West Coast. With the frontal passage, temperatures are expected to be cooler on Tuesday with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. The ridge will strengthen over the Western CONUS mid-week allowing temperatures to warm up again.
154 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 Cool high pressure will settle over the region today. Expect a gradual warming trend to above normal daytime temperatures beginning Tuesday along with occasional afternoon breeziness as the high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front is crossing the region early this morning and should reach the coast by 12-14z with northerly winds spreading over the forecast area. Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies but some higher clouds are expected to cross the region later this morning as the upper trough axis approaches.
Under deep northwesterly flow, temperatures this morning have dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s so far, with typical cool spots already in the lower 20s. As we move towards sunrise expect most locations to bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 40s across the Bluegrass to upper 40s across west-central KY as winds shift to the south on the backside of the high. Low temperatures tonight will then be a bit warmer than this morning, in the lower to mid 30s.
1032 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 High pressure will build into the region tonight through Monday, leading to mainly dry conditions. Temperatures to drop to cold lows in the lower and middle 20s. This will allow for the lower level flow to back around the west through Monday afternoon with WAA developing. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows Monday night in the low to mid 30s.
As this low moves further east and moisture wanes, lake- enhanced snow showers will come to an end later on this evening. Snow totals up to 1-3 inches look possible roughly along and north of a line from Lansing to Manistee, with the highest amounts across central and northern lower MI.
1007 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 A dry cold front will push through the area tonight. A cold front, now east of the mountains, will continue to push east and through the forecast area tonight.
1045 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 (This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, mostly clear skies are occurring across West Central Texas with temperatures near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s. A few low lying areas and river valleys could drop into the lower 30s.
Considering our forecast overnight lows in the advisory area are in the lower 40s, and new MET guidance is indicating low ceilings/visibilities at MCB/HDC/BTR, will go with a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM Monday, mentioning patchy dense fog.
Better surface CAA arrives late Monday into Monday night and will help set up cooler temperatures for Tuesday.
This will cause a weak cold front to sag slowly sewd across Washington and northern Oregon.
1028 PM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Quiet and dry weather will continue today and tomorrow as high pressure continues to influence the area. Today's highs will be in the mid-60s over the plains, rising into the low-70s tomorrow, while the valleys will stay in the mid-high 50s both days. A dry cold front is expected to pass over the region on Tuesday morning, which will cool temperatures to the 50s-60s over the plains, the mountain valleys, and Teller County, and the 30s to 40s over Lake County.
Short wave ridging aloft and lee troughing at the surface will veer winds to a southwesterly direction under mostly clear skies.
High pressure behind the front will continue to slide into the region tonight and be centered over southeast AL by early Tuesday morning. Forecast lows are on the lower side of guidance and mainly in the low to mid 30s, except for the upper 30s along the immediate coast. The near freezing and below temperatures for tonight are somewhat scattered across the region so will hold off on any freeze warning for now.
Trough, and embedded upper level energy, will move south of the region before dawn. Additionally, the crossing trough will reinforce the cold air and back the winds to the NW. The main trough axis will move through New England late this morning, allowing for minor height rises over our neck of the woods. Snow showers will exit the ridges late Tuesday morning and weak warm air advection will slowly ensue behind the exiting wave.
Considerable mid and high level clouds with Cigs AOA 100 associated with a mid level trough and attendant cold front moving across the region will continue over the terminals through mid morning before scattering out during late morning and into the afternoon as drier air filters into the region in the wake of these features. Some very light RA may also be possible through 12Z, but with very dry air in the lower levels have kept mention of RA out of the forecast with most of the precip not reaching the ground. The system will exit the area early Monday with high pressure building over the Florida peninsula in the wake of the disturbance.
945 PM PST Sun Nov 28 2021 The passage of a cold front will bring rain mainly to southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle on Monday along with some cooling.
This high slowly moves out of the area through the evening and overnight. Tomorrow morning low level flow orients more westerly which helps push this channel of warmer air over far E KS and W MO. Once this wave passes, ridging takes hold once again across the central CONUS bringing more quiet days and chances for unseasonably warm temperatures (which is certainly not a bad thing). Dry northwest flow continues to direct pulses of cooler air into the region keeping temperatures somewhat sinusoidal, but above seasonal norms.
For most of this week there will be an upper level low to our south-southwest. This feature may bring a slight chance of precipitation to near the International border of Cochise county late in the week as the low moves through.
NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE Periodic rain/snow mix and gusty winds will be present over the high terrain of the Northern Rockies today.
602 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure will dominate on Monday with tranquil weather over the Ohio Valley. High pressure will dominate the rest of today leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. With southerly flow, overnight lows will be a little warmer than previous night ranging from the mid to upper 30s. The result will be challenges on where and how far a cold front will push over the weekend.
357 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Broad high pressure aloft covers much of the Western United States with a resultant moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today and will be approaching record highs for this time of year. For tonight, a weak upper level system and associated cold front will brush Northern Colorado. The main impacts will be felt on Tuesday with cooler temperatures. With the approach of the trof tonight, cross sections showing the flow aloft increasing at mountain top level. Tuesday, there will be a breezy northerly flow over the plains and slightly cooler temperatures behind a weak disturbance passing through the west-northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will still remain well above normal, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the plains and upper 30s to lower 50s in the high country.
355 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Another cool and quiet start to the morning across the region as high pressure builds into the Mid South. This high will keep us dry for most of the week.
Despite plenty of sunshine, the northerly winds and passage of a reinforcing cold front will keep temperatures cooler than normal, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s.
509 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Today will feature a fairly significant warmup compared to yesterday as westerly winds at 850 mb advect in much warmer air, with 850 mb temperatures increasing by nearly 10C compared to yesterday.
A few gusts will near 25 to 30kts late this morning/early this afternoon, but they shouldn't be widespread or long lasting, diminishing significantly after 19Z as the low level jet weakens.
With clear skies and a very dry air mass in place, temperatures will fall quickly after sunset with many locations at or below freezing by Tuesday morning.
Previous mentions of freezing rain or drizzle are becoming increasingly unlikely as we see how this system progresses eastward with nothing reaching the surface. The very dry air mass sitting in the lower levels is dominating.
831 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 A ridge of high pressure now over the lower OH and MS valleys will settle into the area through the day. Although temperatures are starting off quite chilly in the upper 20s to middle 30s, they will quickly rise into the lower 50s by early afternoon for highs. With the low wind speeds and nearly full sunshine (just a few high thin clouds), today will be nearly a repeat of yesterday, just not quite as warm. As the center of the high shifts to the ESE, our winds will veer to a southerly direction by this evening and overnight hours. This will make for a milder night across the area as lows will run about 8-10 degrees warmer than last night.
Otherwise, another cool and dry day is in store for South Texas as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees generally east of I-37, with highs in the low to mid 70s farther west. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer on Tuesday as onshore flow continues under partly cloudy skies.
425 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS upper ridge continuing to dominate our weather, with next short wave nearing the Pac NW. At the surface, trof has pushed into the eastern Dakotas. Another very mild day in store for today with upper ridge overhead and breezy downslope flow. Aforementioned short wave will quickly ride atop the ridge tonight and push a cool front through the area. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 40s/50s. Warm advection will quickly ensue Tuesday night as upper ridge rebounds in wake of departing short wave.
/Issued 114 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021/ An upper level ridge currently sits over the western CONUS with a trough down stream extending from the Hudson Bay down into the Ohio River Valley. Under the trough in the west is a split flow weak low pressure system just off the coast of southern California and Baja Peninsula. This will aid in a weak surface front that will move into the Panhandles bringing north winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Only saying slightly cooler as temperatures will still be above normal just not as much as today.
217 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Continued warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow on the leading side of the ridge aloft flattens across the forecast area today with the approach of a short wave trough embedded in the flow that moves across the forecast area early Tuesday. Another couple of short wave troughs move over the forecast area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with another weaker ridge over the western U.
A cold front will push through the area tonight with some weak forcing bringing a slight chance of precipitation. Despite lows dipping into the 30s, precipitation type should remain all rain using the top down method, as temperatures at the sfc and aloft is expected to remain above freezing. After the cold front pass temperatures cool briefly with highs only in the 50s on Tuesday. After the cold front passes on Tuesday, a quiet weather pattern continues with the High Plains mostly in a northwest flow through the forecast period. Some long range ensembles have been inconsistently hinting at another disturbance moving through toward the weekend that could bring cooler temperatures from Canada, but confidence remains low at this time.
329 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021 Dry weather and warmer than average temperatures will continue through-out week. Rex block pattern (high pressure over low pressure) over the western US is not budging over the next seven days. With highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the SJV, it will be even warmer in the foothills in the lower to mid 70s.
A ridge of high pressure currently over New Mexico will get shoved to the southeast today as a storm passes to our north tonight into Tuesday. There will be a back door cold front as well Tuesday into Tuesday night.
/Issued 349 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021/ Large trough axis over the eastern CONUS has shifted east of the area, with associated cold front draped over south Georgia. 31 The extended periods start out with mid to upper level dry NWLY flow as dry with high pressure ridge staying over the area through the end of the week. Will gradually see moisture return as surface ridging slides east Wed allowing for a slight southerly component to the wind with a slight increase in dewpoints through the week.
With our region well east of this feature, the overall pattern is characterized by weak ridging and northwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures in the upper 60s can be expected in the higher elevations and 70s elsewhere across the area. High clouds and increasing moisture should keep Tuesday morning's temperatures a bit warmer than Monday. Above normal temperatures in the upper 60s across the higher terrain and 70s elsewhere can be expected once again.
/issued 355 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021/ Another cool and quiet start to the morning across the region as high pressure builds into the Mid South. This high will keep us dry for most of the week.
Chilly again this morning across the area in the wake of the dry cold front that moved through yesterday, with current readings in the upper 20s and low 30s. By tomorrow, an upper level ridge will begin building across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states the rest of the week.
323 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the nation's mid-section with large-scale ridging over the western CONUS. In the low levels, strong 850mb warm-air advection continues to spread eastward across the central Plains. Highs should range in the lower to mid 50s.
A dry and mild pattern expected through the work week as high pressure continues to dominate. Ridging builds back over the region on Tuesday. Today will be the warmer day.
Weak ridge of high pressure moving across the area with calm to light winds allowing temps to tumble into lower and mid 20s under mostly clear skies. Ridge will move across the area today as another fast moving clipper type system approaches the upper great lakes which will help pull a warm front through central Indiana later this afternoon and evening. Core of colder air that briefly settled into central Indiana will be displaced today as warm advection gets underway as low level ridge axis slides east.
925 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 High pressure will dominate on Monday with tranquil weather over the Ohio Valley. As we get on the back side of the high, the flow will begin to back around to the west with some mid and high level clouds spreading in through the day. We will remain cool with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s in parts of the north to mainly the lower 40s elsewhere.
Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley region this morning with high pressure firmly in control of the weather. As a result, daytime highs will only peak in the low to mid 50s despite the ample sunshine. The aforementioned northerly winds will make it feel 5-10 degrees lower than the actual air temperature, so definitely bundle up if you're heading outdoors today! As the center of the high shifts to the ESE, our winds will veer to a southerly direction by this evening and overnight hours. This will make for a milder night across the area as lows will run about 8-10 degrees warmer than last night.
The ridge in this pattern is guiding moisture through the northwestern states while the weak cyclonic circulation near central Baja is guiding moisture through north-central Mexico. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low-80s each day across the lower deserts, but mid-80s are within reasonable possibility as seen by the upper-quartile (75th percentile) of the NBM spread.
A short wave in the Gulf of Mexico will push the cold front through the Keys and bring an end to the cloudy conditions.
Main questions this morning, are does the low level dry air win out and does the warm nose aloft melt the snow and turn it rain with a potential freezing rain chance across the north. At the same time we have cooler surface temps and the radar returns moving in quicker and thus have time to interact with cooler air. Depending on surface temps, we may see some freezing rain and need to keep an eye on this through the morning. Do think that if we have freezing rain, it will likely result in spotty issues as the overall intensity of this precip will be very very light.
Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the nation's mid-section with large-scale ridging over the western CONUS. In the low levels, strong 850mb warm-air advection continues to spread eastward across the central Plains. Highs should range in the lower to mid 50s.
439 AM MST Mon Nov 29 2021 Continued warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions. Northwest flow on the leading side of the ridge aloft flattens across the forecast area today with the approach of a short wave trough embedded in the flow that moves across the forecast area early Tuesday. Another couple of short wave troughs move over the forecast area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with another weaker ridge over the western U.
1106 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021 Strong high pressure will continue to keep the storm track fixed north into Oregon and Washington with no precipitation in sight for the upcoming week. A mid-latitude blocking pattern conditions to dominate weather across the west coast. A weak upper short wave pushing into the Pacific Northwest will briefly flatten the upper ridge and allow some mid and high-level cloudiness to pass over the region today. As the upper wave tracks east across the Great Basin region, a brief northwest upper flow will draw some cooler air south Tuesday morning and bring a more seasonal twist to temperatures into northern Sierra and western NV valleys. A slight increase in ridge-top winds over the Sierra Crest will then signal the impending passage of the southern segment of the upper short wave over the region.