Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
436 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows weak upper ridging over the nw gulf coast, with an upstream low/trough digging spinning toward srn CA. High level clouds are noted streaming over the top of the ridge and into the forecast area. The sly winds are also producing rather muggy conditions with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s which is about 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. Weak upper ridging should still be strong enough today to limit convection although a isltd shower or storm will be possible mainly over wrn portions of the area. The upper ridge will gradually break down Thursday as the low over srn CA moves east.
Southwest mid/upper level flow from the plains into the western Great Lakes will prevail through this weekend between a mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the east. mid level ridging and weak qvector div during the rest of the day will be less favorable for additional tsra during the afternoon even though temps in the lower 80s will push MLCAPE values into the 1k-2k J/Kg range.
The unsettled weather pattern will continue for one more day as upper low completes its slow trek across southern CA and enters Arizona this evening.
There is some disagreement between the various models on timing and placement of forcing for ascent, but the main trof axis aloft will still be to our west, and the warm front should lie across portions of northwest Wisconsin. After a brief break in the organized precip and shower/TStorm activity, chances for rain and TStorms should ramp up once again Fri night into the weekend as the next significant S/W trof rotates northward from the plains states into the upper midwest.
A large amplitude trough is slowly making its way across the western US. A closed low part of this system will move over the Four Corners on Thursday bringing a more concentrated piece of energy to the region. Moisture will increase slightly on Thursday, which will team up with the unstable closed low airmass to produce moderate to high coverage of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Skies should clear out somewhat to partly cloudy, and temperatures will get into the lower to mid 80s for above normal high temperatures.
614 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today.
625 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Sunshine and warmer weather will return today ahead of a cold front. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area tonight. then hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west.
144 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure over the region will continue to support fair weather through Wednesday. High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest dew points only in the lower 50s. Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm front lifts into the area.
259 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week. Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday.
but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later today through the first part of tonight. dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty winds. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little cooler than today. Will have showers move into the area thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
Tracking short wave trough early this morning as it ejects across the Central Plains in broad southwest flow. Late in the week and into the holiday weekend, medium range guidance suggesting upper low could eject out of southwest as large scale upper pattern begins gradual change. This low will likely lead to more widespread convection with better dynamics and shear, but some questions about how much instability will be in place this far north.
The upper low drifts into North Dakota Thursday Night which will diminish the chance of showers to slight chance overnight.
348 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Short wave ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e ridge. Precipitable water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN Fri/Fri night.
However, by late morning into the afternoon, an approaching H5 trough will enhance forcing and deep layer shear. This feature, coupled with areas of enhanced moisture convergence along a northward lifting warm front, should mean some storm reintensification by late morning into the afternoon.
322 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today.
Area of low pressure over southwest corner of Saskatchewan and extending into north central MT will remain nearly stationary tonight. Long streamer of Pacific moisture cutting diagonally across the state from the Big Hole Valley to the MT/ND border and wrapping around the low's circulation center is providing plenty of moisture for widespread mostly cloudy skies. Additional moisture will be pulled into our area as the low shifts its position, bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms both Wed and Thur aftn/eve. Given the marginal convective energy and wind shear associated with the low, no strong thunderstorms are expected, though a few may produce brief, moderate downpours and a little bit of small hail.
The ridging will also keep rain chances fairly low today.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a low amplitude ridge from east Texas to the Great Lakes and a trough over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Gulf coast had the winds from the southeast. Dewpoint temperatures were in the lower to middle 70s across our CWA. The upper level trough will dig southward along the west coast today and then move eastward along the US/Mexico border. The low level flow will also remain unchanged today. As the upper trough continues to move eastward Thursday, a surface front will move through west Texas.
629 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
A deep upper-deck trof that'll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS border. The slow NE lift of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection targeting Central parts of OK & KS. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E & like it's predecessor it'll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs across Srn CA.
330 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will move offshore today.
An upper trough will bring some showers at times to Western Washington through the Memorial Day weekend.
447 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 The morning surface map shows a ridge of high pressure stretching from northern Florida to near Bermuda. Today's general pattern will continue Thursday, though guidance shows some potential for a slight increase in moisture southeast coastal areas late in the day as the upper low drifts back west toward the peninsula. By late in the week, medium range guidance is coming into better agreement that the upper low north of the Bahamas will develop a stronger surface reflection. This inverted trough or surface cyclone will drift northwest toward a developing weakness in the ridge over the southeastern states, but will not be in a particular hurry to do so. With the strengthening ridge of high pressure north of the area today, a fresh easterly breeze will dominate.
Low pressure will move across the deserts today continuing the trend of well below normal temperatures and bringing a better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Sierra and portions of central and southern Nevada.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. A summer like pattern will be setting up across the area with mid and upper level ridging over the southeast United States, and the jet stream lifting northward. We will remain on the periphery of the upper level ridging, which means occasional isolated to scattered convection can be expected for late in the week and into the early part of the weekend.
Good initialization of the 00Z deterministic runs of the GFS and the ECM with closed low center over Pt. Guidance is forecasting the track of the low center to cross the SoCal region during the day today. The low will quickly track into AZ by 12Z Thursday with continued unsettled conditions in the Sierra Nevada.
141 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will build over the southeastern United States resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the week. High based cumulus per moisture seen around 7h off the evening RNK sounding should continue to fade with loss of heating making for a mainly clear and comfortable overnight under high pressure. Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently building over the southeastern CONUS.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. Ridging over the southeast conus will be the most influential feature for our area during the early part of the period. the gfs inches the low very slowly to the west or northwest, and allows deep moisture off the atlantic to spiral/pivot well inland over ky. meanwhile, the ecmwf turns the low very slowly to the northeast, and keeps the deep moisture to our east.
325 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today.
1209 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 The active pattern will continue as southwest flow aloft enters the region this afternoon ahead of a broad longwave trough positioned over the west coast. Lee-side low pressure will develop by late this evening over western Kansas, with a dryline running south into the Texas Panhandle. An effective warm front draped over the KS/NE border, combined with an eastward storm motion parallel with the boundary could lead to training storms along this boundary as it approaches NW Missouri.
432 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of the region this morning. A cold front will approach from Quebec this afternoon and cross the area tonight bringing the potential for thunderstorms. High pressure is expected to move across the region on Thursday. The low clouds/fog will lift and burn off by mid morning w/some sunshine to return. This will help to warm things up rather quickly by late afternoon before clouds move in ahead of a cold front coming out of Quebec. For tonight, the cold front is forecast to slide quickly se this evening and the airmass cooling down and tstms diminishing. High pressure is expected to build across the region during the day Thursday into Thursday Evening then slowly move to the east.
The mid to upper level ridge overhead will keep the these storms north of the area. Several short waves in the westerlies bump the ridge and slowly decrease heights.
Elongated upper level trough will continue to impact the region today with scattered to numerous light showers developing mainly over the higher terrain. Showers will taper off overnight and Thursday as the trough transitions east and the flow becomes northwesterly.
139 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. If they do, it will be over the ridges and very sparse coverage.
453 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A summer like weather pattern will take hold, with warmer temperatures, and gradually increasing humidity, over the next several days.
431 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 Unsettled weather continues to our west as two areas of low pressure, one over northern Montana and another over south California, are connected by a trough. By Thursday morning, the closed low over California will have moved to the Four Corners region as models start depicting some light precip over higher terrain. The precip and clouds will keep high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal.
Aside from a few radar returns that suggest isolated light rain showers over south central Kentucky, we are almost entirely precip-free as new convection advertised by most of the models has failed to materialize over the lower Ohio and Wabash Valleys, and an earlier MCS has almost completely fizzled over western Tennessee. Precip chances will remain limited to chance, and temps will continue to run several degrees above normal by day, and trend warmer each night.
A cold front approaches from the west late Wednesday into Wednesday night, allowing for some breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening.
Showers and storms will likely develop well to the west of our forecast area on Thursday so have held PoPs below 50 percent until later Thursday evening, and feel that the higher potential for storms in our area will likely come after midnight as the low-level jet increases and storms can propagate into the region.
400 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Increasing moisture and a warm front lifting northeast across the area will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon but a better chance tonight. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s. Models and official forecast have shown a rather high moisture bias in the low levels.
652 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Increasing moisture and a warm front lifting northeast across the area will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon but a better chance tonight. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s. Models and official forecast have shown a rather high moisture bias in the low levels.
121 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across northern counties.
High pressure will build offshore the Carolina coast, freshening the onshore flow as the local pressure gradient tightens. Temps will top out around 90F well inland and the low to mid 80s along the coast. Continued onshore flow will keep coastal communities warmer (low to mid 70s) compared to inland areas (mid to upper 60s). Local rain chcs will hinge largely on whether or not discrete low pressure develops. High pressure off the Carolina coast expected to build a few millibars which will increase the local pressure gradient, bringing up to 15 knot east winds over the local Atlantic waters (occasionally higher south of Sebastian Inlet). Wind and sea forecast are subject to revisions should low pressure development occur near the Bahamas this weekend.
Synoptically speaking, high pressure will prevail over the immediate Tri-State region today. Guidance suggests that a surge of higher dewpoints from a more southerly wind component on the backside of the trough will spread over the Panhandle (west of the river) this afternoon. Mostly clear skies and highs in the low to mid 80s should be expected along the immediate coast.
In continued weak WAA, expect temperatures today to climb up into the lower 80s. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over the east coast through the end of the week.
316 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 Current surface map shows low across eastern Colorado with trof extending into central South Dakota. Upper low remains across north Dakota on Thursday. Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains through the Memorial Day weekend. IFR/MVFR ceilings will be found across northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and into northwest South Dakota this morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
335 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 Upper level low off the California coast will move over southern California today. The low will continue to move eastward and be over Arizona tonight. A weak ridge will move across the state today. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the 70s across northeast Colorado.
Passage of this feature, and the sfc warm front, Thursday morning will bring in the more humid/unstable condition.
but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later today through the first part of tonight. dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty winds. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little cooler than today.
640 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. If they do, it will be over the ridges and very sparse coverage.
However, we will be watching the evolution and progress of an upper level low currently over southern CA.
146 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure builds to the south through Wednesday night. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
Despite the lack of defined focus, the high instability environment will support a risk of severe weather.
We will remain under the influence of an upper low over northern Montana and its related cyclonic flow today and Thursday. Still, given the fairly low freezing levels we cannot rule out some brief pea size hail in any stronger cells, but these should be far and few between.
530 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. If they do, it will be over the ridges and very sparse coverage.
132 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend. Warmer. as ridge axis shifts east across the area. Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow contributing little to the terms. Cells may be slow moving in the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.
139 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week. Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday.
The large scale is characterized by a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over Mexico, ridging far north over the central United States. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s. By tonight, the weather prediction models have been consistent with showing somewhat drier and more stable air develop across the service area, as the influence of the Mexican anticyclone grows. Models also have been consistent on showing slow development of a weak subtropical or hybrid type of cyclone over the South Atlantic Bight although this evolution remains highly uncertain. Such development would actually erode the (by then) already weakening surface anticyclone further, leading to even lighter breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters this weekend.
The period begins with an upper level trough of low pressure over the central plains.
310 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms again today, mainly over the higher elevations. Dry and warmer by the weekend. The large upper trough that has kept the cool and unsettled weather pattern going across the region over the past several days remains overhead NorCal, but most of the energy has consolidated into a closed low that is now just off the SoCal coast near Vandenberg. This low will move east into the lower Colorado River Valley today before lifting out into the central Plains by the end of the week, gradually replaced over NorCal by ridging from the eastern Pacific.
334 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 Significant S/W trof axis continues to lift slowly northeastward across the Plains States early this morning, with widespread thunderstorms extending from South Dakota to eastern Oklahoma. As a result, we expect it to be pretty hard for the surface warm front to make too much progress to the north, which should act to limit any severe T-Storm potential in the DLH CWA, although a few stronger storms with roots above the shallow stable layer are likely, with the primary threat of large hail.
For 06Z TAFs: Shra/tsra to the west of the TN Valley should continue to dissipate as they move east overnight, thanks to high pressure and a fairly dry atmosphere across the cwa.
This area will be located mostly along and west of a line from McComb Miss to Lake Maurepas to Pierre Part La which is colocated with the higher moisture content. There is no tornadic or hail threat but downburst winds would be possible if a storm is capable of producing lightning which means it will have broken through the lowest inversion and taken advantage of good sfc heating. This also means that it would be deep enough to entrain dry air from a dry air tongue at 700mb which is what would cause the higher density from evaporational cooling. This is of course all conditional which is the reason for the low probabilities. 35 High pressure remains centered over the Carolinas this morning.
1244 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 Aloft: The longwave trof was over the Wrn USA with SW flow over the Plains. One of these trofs will be moving by to the NW tonight into tomorrow. The upr low off CA will be kicked thru the Desert SW Thu as the next low drops into the backside of the Wrn trof. This low will open up and lift across the Cntrl Plains Fri night into Sat. This low should cause a significant increase in tstm activity. The circulation around this low should shove whats left of the front E of the fcst area by daybreak Thu. This low will lift NE into the Nrn Plains Sat. But there won't be much of a cold sector with this low. The low-lvl jet will strengthen against tonight.
425 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will slide across the Mid Atlantic region then off the coast today through tonight.
421 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. If they do, it will be over the ridges and very sparse coverage.
Thursday appears to be mostly dry across the CWA but will be watching western and central SD for precip potential as upper low spins across eastern MT and western ND.
637 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A summer like weather pattern will take hold, with warmer temperatures, and gradually increasing humidity, over the next several days.
341 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 Predawn water vapor loop depicted a positively-tilted upper trough from south central Canada across the northern Rockies to a low off the central California coast. A quasi-stationary surface front extended from eastern South Dakota into western Nebraska then south through the high plains.
I increased max temps for today by a few degrees in the Lower Columbia Basin and at Hermiston and Pendleton.