Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid level ridging over the area is the dominant feature responsible for these conditions. Surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s combined with the temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and little wind have created these uncomfortable conditions. There could be multiple chances for rain through the day on Wednesday as good isentropic ascent within a warm air advection regime ahead of the trough forms some early to mid morning showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri. High condensation pressure deficits in the low levels and model soundings with high T/Td spreads below 8000 feet indicate that cloud bases will likely be rather high with this morning activity, which may cut down on widespread amounts.
413 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A low pressure system currently over central Manitoba will shift E across far northern Ontario tonight and Wed. The cold front slows across the area and moves through the S-central and E tomorrow. As a cold front sinks southeast of the area Wednesday evening, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will slide out of the U.
204 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures near 80. A brief warmup will occur Wednesday prior to the arrival of a cold front.
Temperatures near or a degree warmer tomorrow compared to today.
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Upper ridge over the southwestern US will deepen and shift east into the Plains today, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. 850 hPa temps rising to near 21-22 C will be supportive of surface temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across much of the region this afternoon. Meanwhile easterly surface winds have brought dewpoints down into the 60s, but gradual veering through the day will bring them back into the lower to middle 70s through the afternoon.
340 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 The mid/upper level low that has been hanging around the forecast area over the past few days, has now moved off into central Mississippi according to latest satellite images, taking with it most of the significant shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast area, as seen on water vapor imagery, still has a bit of a shear axis overhead between a tutt low over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and upper level ridge building down from the northwest. Upper level ridging will continue to build into the forecast area over the next few days, helping to solidify dryness in the mid levels.
Dew points remain in the low to middle 70s, so as temperatures climb into the 90s early this afternoon, we run the risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. On a separate note, with temperatures expected to climb into the low to middle 90s and dew points as high as they are, Heat Index values will climb into the low triple digits in many spots. Light winds this afternoon, calm tonight and even lighter Wednesday as high pressure dominates.
/issued 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The upper ridge has strengthened over the Southern Plains this afternoon leading to much less in the way of convection across the area. The exception is across the higher terrain where lower heights and more moisture reside. This will be the trend the next few days as the upper ridge slowly builds west into the Rockies. By late this weekend, the upper ridge moves far enough west to allow northerly flow to develop across our area.
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. Mean upper troughiness extending from New England SW to the Gulf Coast. A weak upper low along the AL/GA border this afternoon will slowly drift east and eventually move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Additionally, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s.
138 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with improving weather expected. The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build down from the Great Lakes. This will allow us to enjoy the first of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with cooler temperatures and a drier airmass.
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures near 80. A brief warmup will occur Wednesday prior to the arrival of a cold front.
650 PM EDT TUE Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures in the low 80s Wednesday.
The best chance for storms will arrive by late afternoon and during the evening hours along an approaching cold front.
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure through Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with improving weather expected. High pressure will be quick to depart to the northeast, putting the CWA back into return flow and a quick increase in temperatures as low level warm air and moisture advection commences once again.
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure over Michigan will move across the area tonight then off the East Coast by late Wednesday.
550 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. Mean upper troughiness extending from New England SW to the Gulf Coast. A weak upper low along the AL/GA border this afternoon will slowly drift east and eventually move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Additionally, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s.
Significantly drier air has now overspread the area in the low and mid levels. Also, a few more significant showers are located over east central Louisiana across the far northeast zones associated with the remnants of an upper level low. The low moisture values and and warming aloft with an upper ridge will keep the area dry and temperatures a couple of degrees hotter. This weekend the upper ridge will break down and a weak cold front will approach the area.
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
230 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 The axis of an H5 ridge extends eastward from the Four Corners region across the Southern Plains, and will be the primary weather feature affecting North and Central Texas this week. The main affect will be the sweltering heat expected the rest of the week due to subsidence from the ridge, plenty of solar radiation and dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s.
1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 09Z vapor shows an upper low over eastern Saskatchewan/western Manitoba, a small wave moving through northwestern South Dakota, and southwest flow across the forecast area.
A warm and muggy night is then expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
304 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Generally quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois through the period as high pressure drifts off the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest. There are varied model solutions in how how quickly and far ahead convection will develop ahead of the cold front.
The showers, along with cloudy skies is keeping the area cooler than expected with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. A surface warm front associated with low pressure to the west will set up over the southern part of the state as well, and looks to become the focus for convection late this afternoon into tonight.
341 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Broad low pressure will remain across the Carolinas and Georgia through tonight.
Another one is back across UT which will be making its way eastward flattening the upper ridge some more and providing another round of upper forcing across CO on Wednesday. Across the plains, surface lee trof is advecting some higher dew points northward across the far eastern counties.
307 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Mean layer ridging centered east of Bermuda stretches west across the northern Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico. Skies are partly cloudy and temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints around 80.
402 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Strong ridge remains stretched across the FL peninsula this afternoon, with it's axis just to the north of the region. Morning sounding had 500mb heights above normal around 595dm, and temperatures have responded topping out a few degrees above normal in the low-mid 90s.
In the low levels, a boundary stretching from the ND-MN Red River Valley through south-central SD into wrn NE will serve as the focus for strong to severe storms this afternoon into evening.
High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic tonight before moving offshore Wednesday.
Upper level ridge axis will be in place tonight, providing clear skies and temps likely falling back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Warmer tomorrow, as return southwest flow kicks supporting temperatures climbing into the mid 80s (possible upper 80s) with near full insolation. With 850 mb temps progged to climb toward 20 C ahead of the Cold front, 90 degrees would be in play, but mixing depths expected to come up short of 850 mb with the cooler start.
Forecast low temperatures tonight should be in the low to mid 70s for most locations. Only area within the CWA that looks to escape the advisory will be across portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois where slightly cooler high temperatures (low 90s) are forecast. A short wave currently moving along the Canadian border along the Washington and Idaho state line will help to flatten out the ridge and move it west to the southern Rockies by Wednesday night.
925 temps rise into the low/mid 20s celsius so expect plenty of temps reaching the mid 80s. There's very good consensus among the models that the cold front will push south through the area, likely exiting southern Wisconsin shortly after midnight. I like this adjustment, focusing more on our southwest, closer to the nose of the low level jet and expected cold pooling behavior.
207 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 The upper ridge has strengthened over the Southern Plains this afternoon leading to much less in the way of convection across the area. The exception is across the higher terrain where lower heights and more moisture reside. This will be the trend the next few days as the upper ridge slowly builds west into the Rockies. By late this weekend, the upper ridge moves far enough west to allow northerly flow to develop across our area.
Dry southwest flow aloft and a building ridge will gradually warm temperatures this week to a few degrees above normal.
First area is along the international border over the nw FA ahead of approaching cold front. Pops will continue to be a challenge later this afternoon along ahead of cold front. Quiet period ahead Wed-Thu as high pressure dominates. Pattern amplifies slightly with a long wave ridge building a little over western North America. Long wave trough deepens slightly over eastern North America. Cold front is expected to move through Sun.
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern plains is expected to gradually shift westward over the next several days. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will move over the ridge to the north of Kansas by Wednesday morning, helping to push a cold front through Kansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
321 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Upper level high is sitting right over the south central US today which will slowly slide westward later this week.
High pressure will finally start to take hold of the region and that will greatly reduce the coverage and rain chances for the forecast area. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s over the next few days before a cold front moves into the region for the weekend. Guidance still points to a cold front moving through southern United States this weekend.
231 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba moving eastward through a broad ridge that covers much of North America.
407 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 The heat has returned in earnest today as temperatures surged into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Fortunately, drier air aloft was able to mix down significantly today which lowered dew points and consquently resulted in heat index readings only a few degrees warmer than ambient temperatures. The intense heat is being driven by the upper level ridge which will be edging closer to the region through mid week so look for mid and possibly upper 90s for highs through the end of the week. The silver lining in the forecast is the heat wave will be brief as the upper ridge retreats back out west this weekend.
103 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure and the associated dry air mass remain in control of the weather across central an southeast Illinois this morning. Quiet weather expected in the short term, as high pressure drifts further east across the Great Lakes. Dew points will start creeping upward, the start of a warming trend as the upper ridge over the southern Plains starts to edge eastward. Temperatures still look to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s on Wednesday ahead of the cold front to our northwest.
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Storms likely to be ongoing at the start of Wednesday evening over most locations as a cold front drops southward over the area. High pressure builds into the region from the north to decrease clouds.
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the region this evening. allowing some warmer air back into the region.
GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite imagery shows plenty of monsoonal moisture spreading northeast from Utah and western CO on the back side of upper-level ridging anchored over the southern high plains. For Wednesday, expect to see less storm coverage outside of the mountains with the upper-level ridge axis building into the CWA through the day.
Calm and clear skies overnight will lead to some patchy fog, especially across Northeast TN and Southwest VA where lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Another hot one tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. Highs will be in the lower 90s across the Central and Southern Valley and near 90 elsewhere.
Deep layer high pressure at the sfc and aloft combined with a band of dry air across the northern counties will again limit convection where only isolated showers/storms are expected during late afternoon and early evening. Ridge at surface and aloft drops southward to southernmost peninsula as upper trough and associated surface boundary forms and drops into northern portion of the state. Period of disturbed weather will develop as upper trough digs southward from the Appalachians to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper level zonal flow will gradually transition to northwest flow as ridging builds to the west. Wednesday will be dry with highs in the lower 80s northeast to the upper 80s southwest.
422 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure through Wednesday.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the TAF forecast period. A mid- level ridge is centered over Oklahoma and will persist thru Wednesday. /Issued 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The upper ridge will remain firmly entrenched across the southern Plains. with high temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today. A pattern change will ensue going into late this week as the upper ridge retrogrades and northwesterly flow develops across the region.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern plains is expected to gradually shift westward over the next several days. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will move over the ridge to the north of Kansas by Wednesday morning, helping to push a cold front through Kansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
The NAM is showing some weakness in the upper ridge later this afternoon which could aid in a slight increase in thunderstorm coverage. Same story as previous nights with lows which should fall into the lower 70s with the help of clearing skies after sunset. Wednesday looks a lot like Tuesday except the ridge will build over the region with more drying aloft. With the slightly higher 850mb temps and sunnier skies, highs should rise into the lower 90s.
A strong U/L ridge will remain over the Florida peninsula through Wednesday with strong subsidence over the region. with the ridge axis across the central Florida peninsula creating weak boundary layer flow. In the mid/upper levels, ridging extends across central and southern Florida while troughing extends over Georgia into the Florida panhandle.
1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Today-Tonight: Temperatures are expected to edge another degree or two warmer than yesterday with a slight increase in 1000-850 thicknesses.
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 At 3 AM, warm air advection ahead of a short wave trough has result in showers and storms across central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. For tonight, a cold front will move slowly southeast into the region. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, a cold front will move southeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. However, with this said, will have to watch where the low tracks.
For the remainder of the week, high pressure will regain control of our weather, bringing dry weather and warming temperature for the interior.
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure over Lake Erie will move east tonight and off the East Coast Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure will maintain dry but cold temperature for the rest of the weekend. Upper trough will remain in place but a wind shift to the southwest should actually support some moderation in temperature through the beginning of the week.
High pressure over California will maintain dry and mild conditions through Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will maintain dry and mild conditions through the remainder of the weekend. Meanwhile, cooler conditions persist in the North Bay Valleys in response to early morning fog and cloud cover that has been slow to burn-off. Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to those today with widespread 70s across the Central Coast and mostly 60s elsewhere as high pressure remains over the region. The forecast models continue to show the mid/upper level ridge over our region will shift inland for the start of the workweek ahead of an approaching mid/upper level system.
249 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018 3 pm update: Snow moving off to the southeast this afternoon and warmer air continues to shallow out the inversion over northeast Montana. Next batch of snow expected Sunday afternoon with cold front pushing south from Canada, and cold air returning to the region.
216 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Dry and stable conditions in the short term as the upper trough holds over the region. Will need to issue a Wind Chill Advisory for parts of extreme north Georgia, mainly the higher elevations tonight as wind chill readings will drop to 5 above zero to 5 below zero.
206 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018 Current surface map places warm front across southeast Montana, through the Black Hills, into western Nebraska. Warm front continues to push east overnight with very little drop off in temperatures across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Upper trough rotating around the west side of a Hudson Bay low will drop through the Dakotas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
327 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure will build into the area tonight from the upper Midwest. The high will move quickly eastward to New England by Sunday evening.
1102 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Water Vapor imagery highlights a broad long wave trough complex across the continental United States. As this short wave rounds the base of the trough, the meat of the cold front will drive southeast through the Gulf of Mexico and blast through the Keys. Wave observations from Pulley Ridge indicate 8 ft seas, which will propagate quickly to the southeast. From synopsis, a cold front will pass through the Florida Keys today. In wake of this cold front, an expansive continental high pressure system will advance southward and persist across the southeastern United States.
Northwest flow is present aloft through Sunday night as the central Gulf Coast is under the upstream side of the deep easterly trough that has been so persistent this winter. Temps tonight will quickly drop through the 30s after dark and fall below freezing across inland areas by late evening due to the clear skies and dry air.
Arctic high pressure is centered over MN currently, with winds becoming light out of the southeast for most locations across the CWA. The period begins with a highly amplified mid level pattern across the conus, featuring a central/eastern conus trof, and rockies/western conus ridge.
339 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure will begin to build toward the region from the west today. The high will then settle over the region tonight, then moving east on Sunday.
1031 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 Arctic high pressure is centered over MN currently, with winds becoming light out of the southeast for most locations across the CWA. The period begins with a highly amplified mid level pattern across the conus, featuring a central/eastern conus trof, and rockies/western conus ridge.
A sunny but cold Saturday today as an area of high pressure builds across the Midwest. And then a bit warmer on Sunday as a warm front builds in from the west, highs in the single digits above zero. On the synoptic scale northwest flow has returned to the Upper Midwest as a strong mid/upper level ridge has developed over the west coast with a broad longwave ridge across the Great Lakes region. The clipper will ride along a warm front boundary approaching from the west, leading to warm air advecting aiding the large-scale lift.
Upper trough will remain in place but a wind shift to the southwest should actually support some moderation in temperature through the beginning of the week.
406 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight through Sunday. Otherwise, upper trough axis slides across the area tonight.
340 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nrn Plains ridging swd through the cntl CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level troffing lingering over the ern 2/3 of the country, keeping a dry nwrly flow aloft over the region.
A warm front will continue northward into Washington today, with decreasing clouds across our forecast area as high pressure builds into the region.
Tapered back yet again on snow chances southwest, as Arctic high pressure squashing the northward extent of developing snow. Relatively warmer temperatures of 10 to 20 below are being reported across the southwest with the onset of return flow.
High pressure will slowly build over the Pacific Northwest tonight, placing western Montana and central Idaho under a northwest flow aloft.
418 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight through Sunday. Otherwise, upper trough axis slides across the area tonight.
236 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 Temperatures will be roughly 10 degrees cooler today then what we saw yesterday across Southeast New Mexico and much of West Texas.
While temperatures are still below freezing, having the sun out will help area roadways in reducing ice and snow cover, hopefully improving travel in the areas that see the sun.
The upper ridge over the western U. This ridge will move east tonight, with the axis roughly along 122 west longitude by daybreak Sunday. These showers are on the decrease and should largely be done by noon, other than a few lingering showers over the higher elevations of the Blues and Wallowa county.
Temperatures at 850/500 mb will fall to -20/- 35C respectively tonight as the dry air in the high erodes the thin cloud field. After a mostly sunny start to the day Sunday, clouds will begins to fill back in during the evening hours as the next low pressure system draws near.