Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
555 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS DRIER AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPS INLAND IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ONE TO TWO DEGREE COOLER TEMPS AT H85 AND AN INFLUX OF 2+ INCH PWATS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HEAVILY RELY ON THE INWARD PROGRESSION OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
122 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015 MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA HAS A ROBUST AREA OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN APALACHEE BAY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TUTT CELL OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH AND TRAPPED BY AN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE TUTT AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
312 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCTATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z.
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS PROMOTED ANOTHER CLEAR. BUT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES AND THE HIGH FURTHER BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND PEAK IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS.
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON.
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC AS POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH WITH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING A WEST-TO-EAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND FARGO. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY.
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A SMALL AND TIGHT CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500-300MB DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ROTATING ACROSS SW MESA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME DIURNAL AND TERRAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON TUE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN. BUT WILL ALSO BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
119 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON.
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2015 Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s. Dewpoints, especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly comfortable by early August standards. For most of the region tomorrow should be very similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.
LOOK FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING ON MONDAY AND INCREASING DEW POINTS.
226 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO ON MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH) WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ENOUGH TONIGHT TO ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS TARGET A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
THIS HIGH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NOW FOR MONDAY WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH A COLD FRONT TO THE NW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION IN THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL SETUP WE HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE 500MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN CANADA. WHILE SOME SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROLE THROUGH THE LARGER CLOSED LOW THESE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. RIGHT NOW NOT SOLD ON ANY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE.
AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR LKS. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF. CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL TROF OVER THE CWA. BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON NT. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4 DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID- LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.
149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat weakened ua ridge remains over the region.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
1214 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARD THE REGION. WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVGS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THEM BACK UNDER AVERAGES TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A cold front currently stretches through northeast Kansas into far northwest Missouri. Expect these warmer temperatures to continue advecting northeastward into the southwest portion of the forecast area during the remainder of the afternoon. As the cold front sags south, forcing along the boundary and an eroding cap should allow for thunderstorms to develop between 4-6pm across far southwestern sections of the CWA. The corridor from Mound City KS to Sedalia MO will have the highest severe weather potential late this afternoon and evening. The effective cold front will continue its progression south of the CWA during the mid/late evening hours, with post-frontal thunderstorms remaining possible generally south of Interstate 70 overnight. Temperatures will be significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in primarily in the 50s.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY PROGS ARE CONSISTENT THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. WE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ABSAROKA AND BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE STUCK UNDER THE RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER US TUESDAY WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT BY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ON TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
1151 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A QUICK RAMP UP OF RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING AS MODELS TAKE DEPICTED COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY NOON.
A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES.
Low pressure area moving into Arizona will slowly continue to move east.
THOUGH SOME OF THE INCOMING MODEL SOLNS DEPICT STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR INTO EAST TEXAS (WHICH MAY IMPACT IAH) WILL LET THE PROB30S RIDE THERE FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS RETURNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST FROM SRN AZ. WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ Current surface analysis depicts cold front stretching from eastern KS into the OK panhandle. Also anticipating an increase in convection along the front across southern KS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens and backs. Another weaker upper low will move through the area by mid- week. although prevailing surface ridging should keep the bulk of the better moisture south of the forecast area. A deep west coast trof will develop going into the weekend.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST PWATS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATE TO MID MORNING MONDAY UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT. THIS THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
1050 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHORT TERM UPDATE - BREEZY EASTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
631 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST.
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BRINGING IN STABLE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE COMING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 71 58 65 / 10 20 90 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 73 53 61 / 10 10 90 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 45 73 52 61 / 10 10 90 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 74 50 58 / 20 10 80 80.
THE LOW MOVES FROM ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE WRAPPED CIRCULATION WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE SAN JUAN/S AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THOUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW OFF AND ON. AIRMASS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY PASSING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Have the highest pops in the southern zones. Otherwise lows tonight will be a little cooler and in the 50s. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn northward ahead of the next upper level trough.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE IMPULSE IS REPLACED BY A BRIEF STINT OF UPPER RIDGING. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROF IS FCST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
819 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 *** Updated for meso-scale discussion *** Cold front currently draped across southeast Kansas into northern Missouri. Over southeast Kansas temperatures have risen into the lower/mid 80s ahead of the approaching dry line east of Wichita and the associated cold front extending east northeast from the dryline toward the south side of KC. Model trends have been a little warmer this run so do not plan on putting any freeze headlines out with this package.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ON TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
COOLER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED -SHRA MAY IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS WHERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THE HIGHEST. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING. WHICH COULD RENEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS CARRY IN MUCH COOLER AIR. COLD FRONT WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS RETURNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST FROM SRN AZ. WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARD THE REGION. WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVGS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THEM BACK UNDER AVERAGES TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
751 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. INITIAL WV WITH SFC TROF AND BURST OF UVM AS THE WRMR AIR SLIDES OVER THE COOL SFC WILL DVLP LGT PCPN. LRG WV AND DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE LAKES FNLY PUSHES THE BNDRY EAST ON TUE. ONCE IT GETS GOING IT SEEMS TO MOVE THRU NICELY AND WILL CLR THE FCST AREA BY 18Z WITH DRIER COOLER AIR BHD.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
1031 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST VIRGA. AS SFC TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
542 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA. UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
931 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. INITIAL WV WITH SFC TROF AND BURST OF UVM AS THE WRMR AIR SLIDES OVER THE COOL SFC WILL DVLP LGT PCPN. LRG WV AND DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE LAKES FNLY PUSHES THE BNDRY EAST ON TUE. ONCE IT GETS GOING IT SEEMS TO MOVE THRU NICELY AND WILL CLR THE FCST AREA BY 18Z WITH DRIER COOLER AIR BHD.