Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS IS COURTESY OF FORCING NEAR AND WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING NE TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF NORTHWEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THIS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO MANY LOCATIONS NEAR I-65 AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NWRN GA WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO MIDDLE TN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR KMSL, THE PROB OF -RA AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER BEING FURTHER WEST OF THE LOW TRACK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GULF COAST YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER AREA EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THIS EVENING MAY SLIP BACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FOG TO REFORM YET AGAIN OVER THE LOWER AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY MORNING.
328 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NORTHERN AL/GA STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DAMP WEATHER FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AREAS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE QUITE SOUPY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW (WHICH WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHBOUND SLIDE) ON SATURDAY WILL HELP KEEP A BIG SPREAD IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON, THEN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO SPIN AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW. VERY WEAK SHEAR UNDERNEATH THIS LOW CENTER. VERTICAL STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAX HEATING AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.
1043 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2015 Clouds will stream into Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho today associated with both an approaching cold front and a second weather disturbance slightly ahead of the cold front. This cold front will bring more seasonal temperatures and, for some, a threat of light rain.
MAIN AREA FOR ANY RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
WARM AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE WEAKENING FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION MARK CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
The associated upper level low will move slightly north through the night, keeping most of the rain to our north. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s in southeast Alabama to near 70 in the Big Bend.
PRIMARILY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF/SERN TX. ADDITIONALLY AS THE LOW DRIFTS NWD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
246 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 Mid-level ridging extending from the southwestern US up to the northern plains will continue to steer a mid-level disturbance into Central Kansas and away from the CWA through the afternoon hours. This will also cause winds to back to the east northeast, which will lead to slightly cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
336 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AL/TN/GA BORDER. THIS LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. AS THIS LOW MOVES N IT WILL PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH IT ALSO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY NEWD WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE ATLANTIC OVERRUNNING A LINGERING WEAK WEDGE.
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
345 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
RESULTING IN A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROF IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF CUT OFF SYSTEMS WERE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NEAR CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW GA / NE AL PULLING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE LOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT EAST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC BLOCKIGN ITS PROGRESS. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE COVERAGE/ INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA/MSA SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE REGION.
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WILL SWING SEWD THEN EWD ACROSS WASHINGTON.
147 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CHATTANOOGA WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND A THIRD ONE OVER TEXAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS OVERALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CHATTANOOGA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IS IT MOVES UPSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY.
47 ALTHOUGH SLIGHT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER SE TEXAS WAS EVIDENT ON THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL AREAS.
OVERALL BROAD RIDGING IN PLACE. SOME VORTICITY IS NOTED SPREADING INTO FAR SRN LAKE MI LATER SATURDAY BEING WRAPPED NW BY THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IN THE SE US. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
The broad upper level ridge will keep most of the moisture south and east of the region through the weekend.
/ISSUED 418 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY AS OT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTH. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS TODAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY.
435 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND +13C 700 MB TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
349 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TAKING MOST OF THE STRATUS WITH IT. TOWARDS SUNSET ANY CU OR SPRINKLES THAT DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS A RIDGE IF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST FROM MINNESOTA.
1121 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPS BEING BROKEN YESTERDAY. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
GENERAL RIDGING THEN COVERS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND THEREFORE ENHANCE THE RIDGE REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. AND MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER MS AND GA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A 500 MB BUILD INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA DROPS SOUTH. OVERALL THOUGH HRRR/RAP SHOWING BEST FOG IN THE SOUTH AND WESTERN FCST AREA SEEMS REASONABLE WHILE ERN FCST AREA SEES THE LOW CLOUDS. WARMER SATURDAY WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 80 OR LOW 80S.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS COMPACT UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. MAIN AREA FOR ANY RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DRAWS IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015/ OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED BETWEEN A SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AL/GA REGION AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 4CNRS REGION OF UT/AZ/NM/CO. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO REFORM ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
IT WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOW 80S.
340 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF FAVORABLE 8H CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW IN RESPONSE TO 8H 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET DURG THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE AND AIRMASS IS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION.
157 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM GEORGIA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY.
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR CHATTANOOGA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THIS RATHER CLEARLY AND THE LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
251 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ROTATE AROUND AND BLOW FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
Clouds are already on the increase this morning ahead of an upper level low approaching from the southeastern states. Highs today will be similar to readings the past couple of days over the western half of the area, with cooler temperatures in the eastern half given the increase in cloud cover. The low will end up drawing moisture from the Atlantic westward into the forecast area over the weekend. Accompanying the low clouds will be a chance of showers. Better chances are forecast over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, with the lowest chances across southeast Missouri. The cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures several degrees cooler than normal, with warmer nighttime readings. In fact, highs on Saturday are only forecast in the lower to mid 70s.
255 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
304 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
Highs on Saturday may be a degree or two cooler than we are seeing today, with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 60s. Cooler temperatures, as compared to what we've seen over the last several weeks, now look even more likely. Models indicate a thermal ridge at 850mb will continue to expand over West Central Texas each afternoon.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR ATLANTA THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR OMAHA. A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN PLAYER IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE MOVE TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE TN RIVER TO THE UPPER 80S FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AND DIVES SOUTH.
THE TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. UPPER AIR PATTERN DISPLAYS RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE PORTION OF THAT TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED LIFT UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO SPIN AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WITH WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW. VERY WEAK SHEAR UNDERNEATH THIS LOW CENTER. VERTICAL STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAX HEATING AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.
106 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPANSIVE AND NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN CONDITIONS LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST OR EAST- SOUTHEAST WOULD SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A GREATER INFLUENCE OFF LAKE ERIE. TWO WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL LOWS/CIRCULATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE STUCK UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
308 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 Main concern tonight will be the approach of a retrograding low pressure system from southeast of Illinois. The latest high resolution models continue to indicate forcing for precip ahead of the low, but dry antecedent air in place across the area will diminish precip potential. Lows tonight will be held slight warmer for our southeast areas where clouds develop.
IN SITU MOISTURE FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND NEBRASKA WILL GET PULLED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM/GFS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AFTER SUNSET MORE OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH. ON SATURDAY AN H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
305 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 Satellite water vapor and regional radar loops show a weak upper low spinning over north central Kansas at 19Z. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across much of the forecast area in the circulation around the upper low. Short term high resolution models as well as the larger scale models continue to show the upper low gradually moving south southwest through the night. Saturday the energy around the upper low will shear out with gradually rising heights across eastern Kansas.
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 An upper level low is evident on satellite imagery spinning across eastern Nebraska this morning. This low, however, will finally retrograde back to the southwest today and take with the added cloud cover, and showers we have experienced the past couple days. With that system a non-player for the local area, the main feature of interest becomes the broad upper level ridging over much of the CONUS.
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 REGION REMAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SOME RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS FROM DECAYING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE OR UPPER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS MOSTLY LOCATIONS AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH UNLIKELY RISK OF PATCHY FOG. SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LOW IS GENERALLY SHOWN TO RETROGRADE NNW AND WEAKEN/FILL INTO OPEN TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI INTO OHIO VALLEYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING SHOVED EWD BY STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 500MB RIDGE OVER UTAH/ARIZONA EXTENDING INTO THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A 500MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS THE 500MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BUILDS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE THREE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO OVERNIGHT STREAMER ACTIVITY AND DEEPENING 500 MB LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL COOL 3 TO 8 DEGREES EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WELL TO THE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE COAST.
136 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
Overall, this system is quite weak, so the main change will be to cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover. Winds will likely become breezy Saturday afternoon, especially in the higher terrain and more exposed valleys.
340 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. UPR LOW OVER NRN GA EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UNDERGOING WKNG/SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCRSG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA/NW CONUS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS PARKED TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE (SEE 12Z 500 MB RAOB ANALYSIS).
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL SATURATE AGAIN.
VFR conditions will prevail as large scale ridging dominates aloft. and an upper low trapped beneath the ridge slides to the west of our area.
535 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL CONT TO SHUNT MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN MID LEVEL CLOUD INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. THE MOISTURE FLOW IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS WEAK TOWARD THE MID OHIO VALLEY. BUT STABILITY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN.
323 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND +13C 700 MB TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
610 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF FAVORABLE 8H CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW IN RESPONSE TO 8H 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET DURG THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE AND AIRMASS IS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION.
Upper low spinning over Georgia has managed to create a weak, but deep and increasingly moist easterly flow into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures have struggled to crack 70 in east-central Kentucky, while thinner cloud cover has allowed areas west of I-65 to punch into the lower 80s. Saturday night should dry out as the upper low fills in overhead, and the better southeasterly moisture feed shifts into the upper Ohio Valley.
1146 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. BUT MID- LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH A RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTHEAST KS THROUGH CENTRAL IA. WITH OUTFLOW AND NOCTURNALLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AS A TROUGH TRIES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERS HEAT TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE COOLER LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FARTHER INLAND REACHING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AIRPORTS.