Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
315 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Low pressure continues to track NE out of Lower Michigan this afternoon. but have reach into the low to mid 70s across much of Northern Lower Michigan. with no precip expected overnight into Sunday morning as a large area of strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. acting on lingering low level moisture and cooler air aloft. Tonight will be noticeably cooler than last night as overnight lows range from the mid 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the upper 50s and lower 60s across Northern Lower Michigan.
/issued 352 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Expect cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the next 24 hours. The initial cold front has pushed south into South Texas and secondary surge of cooler air will move south across West Central Texas today. Again, much cooler this afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Will leave low PoPs over the higher terrain and along the foothills this evening, but high resolution models keep activity isolated. Sunday will be warmer as 850mb temperatures rise to around 28c. A weak cold front moves through and switches winds to the northwest.
551 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 /00Z TAFS/ The cold front responsible for showers and thunderstorms over West Central Texas today has moved south of the area and no additional rainfall is anticipated during the next 24 hours. /issued 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ (Tonight and Sunday) Drier air was moving in behind a cold front that has pushed through West Central Texas. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s as cooler and drier air filters in, especially across the Big Country and northern Concho Valley. The cooler temperatures will be over southern and eastern sections where more moisture and clouds prevail.
Expect additional development this aftn as convective temps have been reached (low-mid 70s) and CAPE nr 1000 j/kg A stacked low pressure system continue to crank away along the MB/ON border some 250nm north of the lake of the Woods. with an H5 trof extending southeastward across the MN Arrowhead into northern WI.
As upper troughing moves over the western Great Lakes tonight, precip trends followed by fog potential are the main forecast concerns. Otherwise, weak high pressure will slowly drift towards the region. With more sunshine, should have warmer temps than todays readings. Sunday Night Through Saturday High pressure will keep dry weather in place early in the week.
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 500 mb short wave trough moving into central ND and southern Manitoba. Convective temps in the low to mid 70s and about 1000 j/kg CAPE means scattered showers maybe a t-storm. High pressure over central ND tonight moving east into Sunday.
Warm and muggy overnight tonight followed by Excessive heat conditions again in the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley again on Sunday. Heat indices were in the 100 to 105 range over the Lower and middle Susquehanna Valley until some locations saw temperatures drop from thunderstorms. With the high humidity, there has been a lot of cloud to ground lightning strikes with these storms. General pattern continues with the upper level ridge off the Southeast Coast and a trough over the Upper MS Valley. Excessive heat warning for the Lower Susq Valley to Harrisburg continues with a Heat Advisory for counties surrounding that up to Williamsburg and west out to Franklin County.
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A frontal boundary across southern Maine will begin to lift north as a warm front tonight. Low pressure near Chicago will move into south Quebec tonight, and across the Gulf of Maine on Sunday.
Scattered showers and an occasional isolated thunderstorm have been occurring ahead of a cold front tonight with latest radar showing the bulk of the showers over far northeast Minnesota into portions of northwest Wisconsin as of 08Z. An upper trough will remain over the Northland today and there will be enough moisture and instability to cause additional showers and a few thunderstorms to continue or redevelop. The showers will dissipate this evening with loss of heating and as the axis of the upper trough continues east. Sunday should be dry for much of the region with weak ridging in place. We kept some low chances for showers over a part of the Arrowhead closer to a weak low level trough. Highs today will be in the lower to mid seventies and be a couple degrees warmer Sunday as we expect more sun.
A weak upper ridge along with onshore flow at the surface will keep temperatures near or slightly above normal through midweek, with areas of late night and morning clouds. Toward the end of the week, a stronger ridge will set up and surface flow will switch to northerly or even offshore for clear skies and very warm daytime temperatures.
Overall looks like a seasonally mild day with highs in the mid or upper 30s in southwest MN where clouds hang on longest, ranging to the lower to mid 40s near the Missouri Valley. Weak ridging slides east across the region tonight. Well advertised cold front works through in the afternoon hours and temperatures aloft keep dropping throughout much of the week.
254 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Warmer air has started to spread back into the area this afternoon on the backside of the upper trough now moving into the mid Mississippi Valley. The warmer temperatures and full sunshine today has eroded a good part of the snow field located over parts of southeast Nebraska from yesterdays event.
Dry air aloft and high pressure will move in quickly to squelch light rain and drizzle from west to east later this afternoon. Most model guidance keeps low levels above freezing overnight, removing chances of any frozen precip. North winds behind this system will bring much cooler conditions for Tues night into early Wed with lows bottoming out into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Initially expecting virga and a light or scattered mix of rain, snow, and a few spots of freezing rain/drizzle this afternoon. When the even colder air arrives with the more serious low pressure trough later on Monday, the clearing line of lingering snow showers will push through our SE zones through Monday afternoon and evening, making way for the very cold arctic air mass which will dominate the region for most of the week.
1023 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Some low stratus clouds are still eroding away over southeastern New Mexico, and the low clouds in the San Juan basin in northwestern parts of the state have mostly dispersed.
Weak high pressure is expected to briefly build into the region tonight. On Monday, low pressure is expected to develop over the Texas Gulf coast and will track northeast reaching southwest Louisiana by Monday evening. As the low approaches the region, showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the forecast area. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Monday with highs from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
Weak ridging over Colorado today will bring temperatures back to near seasonal averages for the short term. Not enough low level moisture for precipitation except possibly across the higher terrain of central mountains late tonight. Also, the higher terrain of the northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Pikes Peak Region could see a few gusts up to around 30 mph today, increasing to around 40 mph by Monday morning.
Westerly winds behind an area of low pressure currently over NE North Dakota has produced highs in the 30s for most locations. Where there is no snow cover, temps have reached the low 40s. A low pressure system currently over Montana will track across NW South Dakota and into North Dakota Monday through Monday night. This system still has the potential to bring accumulating snow to north central South Dakota, or the Mobridge area.
249 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Upper trough swinging across the Midwest this hour, with an area of rain falling out ahead of it. That trough axis will shift east of the region this evening, with lingering rains/drizzle possible trailing behind it for a few more hours. High pressure will move over our region, being centered near Louisville by daybreak Monday. Cloud cover should keep us from getting too cold in the light winds drifting around this high.
a short wave trough reached over the upper Midwest from Canada. and a ridge centered over Cuba extended across the eastern U. Surface - High pressure near the 4-corners region sprawled to the Mississippi Valley. and high pressure over Quebec ridged across the Mid-Atlantic coast to the Bahamas. The closed low over Mexico lifts up over the central/south plains as an open trough. flattening and shifting the upper ridge east although it still dominates the area overnight. with a cold front trailing down over the western Gulf. Then over night south- easterly low level flow will increase and bring in additional moisture mainly at the lower layers.
Temps should be fairly steady through the day, but then turn cooler for tonight. with Monday remaining partly/mostly cloudy and southerly winds keeping the high temps near 40 or so.
There is no cold air on the backside of the system with warm advection actually continuing as thermal ridge builds toward the state.
Tonight weak high pressure will move off to the east as a low pressure trough develops in the Western High Plains tonight. Warm advection and good mixing will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s across the area.
128 PM PST Sun Dec 4 2016 The sunny and mild weather today will give way to increasing clouds and cooler conditions on Monday as winds turn back onshore and the marine layer builds.
This trof will effectively carve out the longwave trof that will deliver the arctic cold. The flow will become increasingly cyclonic until this trof moves thru KS Wed afternoon/ eve. and Fri it will turn anticyclonic until a low-amplitude ridge is fcst to move thru Fri night.
May see a short break in the rainfall early on Monday as an upper low deepens over SW TX which results in slight ridging aloft here. but areas of rain should spread back into the area by Monday afternoon/evening as the upper low begins to kick eastward.
A swath of light to moderate snow continues to move northeast across the region ahead of this trough, but accumulations have struggled to occur on the primary roadways based off of area webcams. Weak ridging will move across the area during the morning, which could result in a few hours of partial sunshine.
The center of the upper level low pressure system was located roughly just south of Sonora, Mexico still making a southerly trek, though a turn to the northeast is expected today towards the Big Bend. However, thanks to how far south the system traveled today, and as the low begins to open slightly and weaken today moving towards us, its effect on our weather looks to be lessening. A weak cold front will push through today also helping to keep much of the area dry, though this front won't be serving to really drag temperatures down. It will help to clear our skies finally, though that means a cool night ahead with lows below freezing for the northwest half of the forecast area.
Mixed temperatures down from 925mb for KABR are in the low 40s. Ridge axis passes overhead today, and winds become more southerly tonight ahead of our next approaching upper trough.
237 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough over much of the CONUS, with closed lows over Mexico and Saskatchewan. At the surface, low pressure is over northern MT, with ridging over the Dakotas and southwest flow over the CWA. Behind the low, a strong cold front will begin pushing through the region, bringing with it a band of snow, strong winds, and much colder air. Snow will begin moving into northeastern WY and the Black Hills this evening, expanding over parts of northwestern SD Monday morning behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be in the 20s, with highs Monday not much warmer, and falling during the afternoon.
334 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Some locations in the higher elevations are expected to receive freezing rain tonight.
Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area and temperatures have warmed to the lower and mid 40s at some locations, and remain in the 30s elsewhere. Colorado is under a strong northwest flow pattern today following a weak upper trof, which is now moving through the central plains states. Across lower elevations, skies will be mostly sunny for much of the day along with warmer temperatures. A longwave trough will push down out of western Canada Monday with the upper jet sliding over the state before splitting later that day. A cold front is progged to push down during the late morning to early afternoon. However good orographics and cold advection will likely bring 2 to 6 inches of snow to the higher mountains.
241 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 After a couple of raw and damp days it took a northerly wind shift and weak surface ridging to provide a warm up. Broadening our view, the upper low that has been traversing northwest Mexico the past couple of days is finally moving eastward.
and Monday Light snow was moving into western Wisconsin as of 08Z, ahead of a mid level trough that was over the Plains. As the trough moves into the Great Lakes Region today, snow timing and amounts are the main forecast concerns. Think that totals should be in the 2 to 4 inch range across central and parts of east central Wisconsin today, with the highest totals in central Wisconsin. It should be slightly warmer farther east, with highs above freezing, which could melt some of the snow resulting in lower totals. Even warmer air along Lake Michigan shoreline should keep snow amounts even lower there.
1208 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region today, before moving offshore tonight.
231 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Mid/upper level transitory ridge will continue to slide across central ND this afternoon then exit to our east this evening. Both the NAM/GFS QG fields advertise poor alignment between the lower level frontogenetical forcing field and the mid/upper level divergence field.
The mid level low pressure system spinning across northern Mexico will swing farther east this evening and overnight. Best timing for the storms come between 8PM-4AM as omega values increase greatly with the approach of the Low and the upper jet streak positions itself overhead.
A high pressure ridge will be drifting east over the state after midnight, and any clearing will likely quickly fill back in with stratus and fog. The ridge will drift east of the area on Monday, with southerly winds trying to bring some warmer air into the area. Have tempered the highs over the north where the heavier snow was today, but areas along and south of I-72 probably should make it into the 40s.
Much of central Iowa remained cloudy though this afternoon and this held temperatures in the low to mid 30s along and east of Interstate 35. Current forecast highs in the low to mid 40s may be too optimistic if the fog holds longer in the morning and mid level clouds in advance of an approaching short wave arrive early.
After a cloudy but mostly precip free morning, we'll see another round of rain spread across the area as an upper low over Texas heads northeast.
As precip begins expect some wet bulbing, and this looks to allow for a rain snow mix over much of the area, with a period of freezing rain possible across the higher ridge elevations mainly in the evening. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on how long below freezing temperatures can remain in the ridges, so for now will highlight freezing rain possibility in the HWO.
A closed upper low over Mexico will gradually kick out into the Southern Plains on Monday, then become phased with the northern stream over the Ohio Valley Monday night.
These will occur ahead of the main upper trough that will move across the state. The warm front well offshore is expected to move back to near the coast later this evening or during the overnight period. As the low moves up the coast, the wind direction should switch from northeasterly to northwesterly sometime late Monday morning to early during the afternoon.
340 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure moves offshore overnight as a weak frontal system moves in for Monday morning.
This trend may turn the other way late tonight into Monday as closed upper low begins to lift northeast toward central Texas. As we get into Monday, expect rain to increase across the south and southeast as the upper low cont to track northeast toward the Arklatex region. Rain should end by late in the day tomorrow as upper low shifts east of the area.
In addition, with temperatures falling to near freezing some freezing fog cannot be ruled out early Monday morning. However clouds will be on the increase by the afternoon as a well defined mid level trough of low pressure lifts northeast from Texas. The aforementioned system will track across the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday night.
which appears to be where the H850 trough is located per the 12z progs. but maintained chance/likely pops S of I-20 ahead of the H850 trough. Also lowered max temps 1-2 degrees areawide as the low status will linger especially over lower E TX/N LA. as the closed low over Wrn MX begins to traverse E towards the Big Bend region.
223 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 The CONUS view reveals an area of high pressure over the southeastern coastal states while a trough moves eastward across the Mississippi Valley. Further west we find a more robust trough moving onto the Northwest Pacific coast.
Did account for a slightly cooler swath where the snow exists, but it should melt through the day. A cold front will arrive in the area Monday afternoon, then sweep across the area Monday night.
particularly the Animas Basin which includes Durango and the Highway 160 and 491 corridor up through Dolores and Cahone. Monday will be a day of change as a cold front begins to push into Northern Utah and Northern Colorado.
The lower slopes and some of the nearby lower elevations will also see some breezy conditions. The low temps forecast will be a bit challenging in areas near the mtns where the winds are a little breezy late tonight and Monday morning, as this will keep things mixed and not as cold. It looks like many areas will see slightly warmer than average lows tonight, except that portions of the San Luis Valley will probably be a little below average.
We will see temperatures return to the 40s and 50s as the upper trough moves east of the Panhandles later this morning. These warmer temperatures aloft combined with southwesterly winds should help push our high temperatures into the mid 50s to lower 60s.
928 AM PST Sun Dec 4 2016 Sunny and warmer today with locally gusty Santa Ana winds diminishing this morning.
A coastal low is fcst develop off the lower coast tonight and move toward the upper coast thru early afternoon Monday as the upper trof kicks out of Mexico. Heaviest activity should be situated off the coast closer to the advancing warm front. Precip should taper off for most places in the afternoon as the low departs, though wrap around -ra remains possible to across n parts into late aftn. 47 Low pressure is forecast by a model consensus to form off the lower Texas coast and then move up into the upper Texas coastal waters later tonight and on Monday. As it does so, a warm front will move to just along the immediate coastline. Winds will diminish on Monday as the low moves east of the area.
There is good synoptic lift from a mid level trough and strong upper divergence from a 150kt upper jet. This forcing will slide off to the east this evening and models are in good agreement showing snow ending this evening with the passage of the mid level trough axis. High pressure will move across the middle Mississippi valley tonight bringing light southwest winds.
Gradient winds along the high terrain, will decrease markedly after sunset, but will continue the Wind Advisory through the evening and let the evening shift take a look at it. Dry air will begin to filter in across northern portions of the area after sunrise which will help to create some breaks in the low stratus shield.
Dewpoints have increased a degree or two above freezing in the most prone areas, though some areas far north could still see a mix of rain and snow in the early morning hours.
A cold front is passing over the state today bringing light snow showers to primarily the northern portions of the state. Colder air will settle across the state with the passage of the cold front.
127 PM PST Sun Dec 4 2016 Sunny and warmer today with locally gusty Santa Ana winds diminishing this morning.
Hedged just a bit warmer in west where effects of insolation will be longest. Hourly temperatures likely a challenge with marginal mixing keeping temperatures fluctuating throughout the night, but net result was to hedge a bit warmer in the west.
SW winds will relax during the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes, and the first strong cold front approaches from the north. An upper level disturbance will move into the Northern Plains Monday and help push a surface cold front through western Kansas Monday afternoon into Monday night.
/issued 410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/ Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e air aloft. By 12Z this morning the upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20.
324 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Weak upper trough crosses this afternoon and tonight.
Sent an update this morning to try and give more detail to the leading edge of precipitation ahead of the cold front today from the west and northwest. It will also be the last warm day for a while as a cold front this afternoon and evening will bring bitter-cold air into the region for most of the week. The upper trough moves into Western Montana this afternoon and across Montana tonight and Monday. Any precipitation that does occur will start out as a mix of rain and snow this afternoon and change to all snow this evening as strong cold air advection moves in behind the cold front. Slight chances for snow will linger as upper trough moves through the area. Arctic high pressure will build into the area from Canada.
An upper trough will move across central Indiana today bringing rain and some snow to the area.
124 PM PST Sun Dec 4 2016 Deep low pressure will bring rain, wind, and heavy mountain snow to the Inland Northwest today.
One final warm day expected on Monday with highs mainly in the lower- to mid-60s.
Light snow will end this afternoon and early evening with winds turning to the south overnight in response to developing low pressure across western ND. During the day tomorrow a leading short wave on the long wave pattern changing 500mb trough will propagate along the international border increasing in strength with time.
This is due to the dome of high pressure sliding into the Southern Plains with troughing developing across eastern Colorado. An upper level disturbance will move into the Northern Plains Monday and help push a surface cold front through western Kansas Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Mid/upper level trough responsible for the band of rain is currently moving over central KS. The temperatures may stay in the lower 40s where there is snow on the ground. As a result, breezy southerly winds will push temperatures above the seasonal normals with highs in the low/mid 50s.
Tomorrow a cold front will arrive to the northwest CWA in the morning then push across the area during the day. Ahead of the front compressional heating should be enough to return temps to the lower 50s. Behind the front mid level moisture is limited and expect most areas to remain dry, however some convergence downwind of the pine ridge may be enough for some light precip.
908 AM PST Sun Dec 4 2016 Sunny and warmer weather today, will give way to increasing clouds and cooler conditions on Monday as winds turn back onshore and the marine layer builds.