Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WENT WITH VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.
1129 PM CDT Tue May 12 2015 A beautiful day is underway this afternoon across the region, as cool and dry high pressure slowly slides east across the area.
HOWEVER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO BRING SOME BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RECOVERY IN THE AIRMASS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT STORMS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. WATCH WILL GO FROM 09Z WED TO 00Z THUR TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS FROM C TX MOVING INTO THE AREA OR MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE BAJA OF MEXICO AND SHOULD TAKE A NE TRAJECTORY OVER TX PANHANDLE AND N TX. THE BULK OF STRONG POS VORT ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT MODELS STILL DEVELOP QUITE A BIT OF OMEGA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND STILL SOME Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE IN 500-300MB LAYER. WHILE THERE IS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THUR.
1157 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 AVIATION A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING CLEARING THE SKY BUT NOT BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
630 PM CDT Tue May 12 2015 A beautiful day is underway this afternoon across the region, as cool and dry high pressure slowly slides east across the area.
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER ON SAT. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE BAJA OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10KFT OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. PARTIAL CLEARING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
Another in a long series of West Coast troughs begins to move this way by the end of the week.
DESPITE COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND RAISED LOWS MOST PLACES.
WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN WRN WI. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN WI PORTION OF THE CWFA WHILE THE MN PORTION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO THE MID 40S. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA TMRW COMBINED WITH WAA WILL MEAN HIGHS TMRW WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TDA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 78 53 83 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 10.
1129 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP INITIATION THIS PACKAGE.
AFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF THIS WEEK IS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. IT WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW.
752 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOUR HAD RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES VERY LITTLE WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS CWA AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR AND SOME RIDGING WORKS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. THEN UPR RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE IN MON-TUE. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING PERIOD.
WITH MORE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT SOME WARMER TEMPS WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SO WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
849 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
Breezier and slightly warmer conditions are expected Wednesday throughout the region as the surface pressure gradient responds to deepening low pressure along the lee side of the Rockies, although cloud cover increasing late in the day may impede our full warming potential.
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
839 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 70S. RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL SEE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO TONIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS POSITION/BOUNDARY.
Upper cold pool is far enough north that we just have a few cu across the region, with exceedingly pleasant temps in the lower 70s. Thermal trof will be well out of the way by Wednesday, but with shallower boundary-layer mixing, expect max temps to be similar to today. Wed night mins always tricky with high pressure progged to be retreating east of the area. Should be close to tonight's mins, but a few of the sheltered valleys in the Bluegrass region could bottom out in the lower/mid 40s given the tendency of ridges to hang on longer than advertised.
730 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 AVIATION A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING CLEARING THE SKY BUT NOT BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC. RELATIVELY COOLER DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BRINGS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT.
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER OR REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK Q-G LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 20S. AS THESE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 WEAK RIDGING FROM TEXAS COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. WEAK TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHEAST CANADA AND WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A STRONG LLJ IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
709 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 931 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015/ 9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. IT WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW.
AS OF 8 PM MDT THE MAIN UPPER LOW WAS ALONG THE OR/NV BORDER AND MOVING NNE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN SE WASHINGTON SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE LOW ITSELF WAS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT WILL CHANGE TO EAST-WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT PIVOTS CYCLONICALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON AND THE ELONGATED PART WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
519 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2015 WARMER. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE ANOTHER LOW CENTER DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PULLS AN OPEN TROUGH OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND LIFTS IT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH TO HELP SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
1245 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. BEST POTENTIAL REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IMPULSES FROM SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OUT TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
934 PM PDT Tue May 12 2015 Cooler and more unsettled conditions expected this week across the interior of NorCal as several weather systems affect the region. The low is lifting northward and stabler conditions are moving over the area for tonight. Temperatures are generally running a little cooler this evening. Another trough negatively tilted will move in from the west on Wednesday to increase chances of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains with the best chances along the northern coastal range.
THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST TO THE MID OR UPPER 70S FAR WEST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING RIDGE.
1213 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
930 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SE GA TONIGHT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE.
THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/CLOSE TO 80 AS A SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE NE GULF/FLORIDA.
1117 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
Upper level low keeps moving east into southeastern Oregon tonight. Different pieces of energy associated with the low will keep moving through the Inland Northwest tonight and Wednesday. /Nisbet 00Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a low pressure system moving northward out of Oregon tonight into tomorrow.
840 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. THEN UPR RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE IN MON-TUE. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING PERIOD.
THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY LAKE HURON SW TO SRN WI AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER IN THE DAY. UPR 50S TO LWR 60S SOUTH (COOLER LAKESIDE THANKS TO AN EAST WIND). MODELS WERE TRENDING SLOWER WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
940 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND HALF AN INCH IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
942 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 WEAK RIDGING FROM TEXAS COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. WEAK TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHEAST CANADA AND WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A STRONG LLJ IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
903 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS PULLING AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BUT THIS WILL BE SETTLING DOWN BY 6 PM AS A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS RIDGE. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOWS TONIGHT. THEN, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE RELOADING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS PULLING AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BUT THIS WILL BE SETTLING DOWN BY 6 PM AS A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS RIDGE. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOWS TONIGHT. THEN, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE RELOADING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN THE MIXING LAYER AS PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
1100 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2015 WARMER. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE ANOTHER LOW CENTER DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PULLS AN OPEN TROUGH OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND LIFTS IT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH TO HELP SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
824 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 COOLER. DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REPLACE OUR RECENT STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
931 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. IT WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW.
/ISSUED 221 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015/ AFTER TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF THIS WEEK IS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER ON SAT. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE BAJA OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING/DRYING CONDITIONS FOR REST OF SHORT TERM. COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LOWS.
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS PULLING AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BUT THIS WILL BE SETTLING DOWN BY 6 PM AS A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS RIDGE. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOWS TONIGHT. THEN, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE RELOADING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
MORE ISOLATED ECHOES HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON KBYX DOPPLER RADAR SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
1010 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY FALL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS STRONGEST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THIS AREA.
DESPITE COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND RAISED LOWS MOST PLACES. 87/GRANTHAM /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015/ SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CLEAR OUT THE RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY WHERE CLEARING OCCURS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MANY AREAS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WAA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOWEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN NW WI.
BTL SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. JUST AS THIS LOW MOVES OUT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIVOT A TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CLEAR OUT THE RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING/DRYING CONDITIONS FOR REST OF SHORT TERM. COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LOWS.
930 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2015 COOLER WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE DEFINITION NEARBY. A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT LAYERED TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REACH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE.
CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DRIVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ENVELOPE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A LARGE BUT WEAK 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
Over the next few days high pressure aloft will remain in control.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT TODAY. KCLE GOT TO 90 YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION TO DISSIPATE.
631 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT STILL MAKES LOWER CLOUDS /BELOW 8H/ BUT IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WILL KEEP IT MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP MAXES SHORT OF GFS-MOS GUIDANCE. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. AND A SLOWLY FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.