Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another batch of thunderstorms is possibly going to move off the Cheyenne Ridge and into the northern half of the forecast area from around 6 PM MDT through 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT. 850mb temperatures would support highs in the lower to middle 90s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 50s. the latest NAM and GFS models warm 850mb temperatures about 3F compared to Sunday, supportive of highs in the lower to upper 90s. Regardless, it looks to be warmer compared to 24 hours ago and have raised highs into the middle to upper 80s as a start with medium confidence that many could see readings in the 90s.
Temperatures are rapidly recovering, with highs currently in the lower to mid 80s. The main convection from Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC1) is now primarily offshore, and the last of the rainbands are slowly moving out of our forecast area. Weak ridging will build in as PTC1 exits, and breezes will remain light through the week.
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance Cooler and rather rainy for the next couple days. A series of closed upper lows at 50-60N across NOAM and adjacent oceans will keep a modest, relatively low-amplitude band of westerlies in place across the central and northern CONUS throughout the upcoming work week. There may be more breaks in the clouds here, too, which will lead to temperatures a couple degrees warmer across northern WI.
An upper-level low north of the Minnesota/Canada border and a low- amplitude upper-level ridge across the Rockies will be present through the short term period, and this will result in an unsettled pattern with near to below normal temperatures. Nonetheless, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s.
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Northwest flow aloft continues today with high pressure at the surface gradually shifting eastward. This will gradually allow a southerly wind to develop with temperatures warming a degree or two warmer than they were yesterday. Thunderstorm activity today should be confined to areas far to the west where better moisture return exists just east of the dryline in western Kansas as well as along a warm front developing across Nebraska into Iowa. There's an outside chance of a shower developing in the northwest part of our area overnight tonight, but otherwise it should be another quiet night with lows a bit warmer than this morning due to a bit better moisture and low level wind flow. We'll see a bit more cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 80s.
The ridging continues. Full disk satellite water vapor loop indicates a spinning upper low in the vicinity of northern Ontario.
305 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The area will experience another pleasant night as high pressure ridging remains over central Illinois with light winds and a very dry air mass. This high pressure will push east as a weather system develops out west and moves toward the area tomorrow. With this, overnight lows will be in the lower 60s. Another pleasant night is expected as a high pressure ridge sits over the area. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, though could be slightly warmer give the expected cloud cover.
209 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Tonight and Tomorrow: A weak upper trough embedded within broad northwesterly flow will slide into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into tomorrow. Nonetheless, overnight low temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low to mid 60s. Heading into tomorrow, a gradual warming trend will return following the cold frontal passage with afternoon high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. A stray diurnally driven shower or two cannot be completely ruled out near the state line, especially as the upper trough pivots overhead, but will keep the forecast dry for now given low QPF response in the latest suite of guidance.
At the upper levels, mild ridging sits on the lee side of the rockies with northwest flow over the forecast area.
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Latest surface analysis shows Potential Tropical Cyclone One moving across South Florida this afternoon, a stationary front across the northern Gulf over to the SE coast, and another stationary front north of our area over portions of the OH valley. At the upper levels, there are a couple areas of low pressure over central and eastern Canada, with nearly zonal flow aloft locally. Low temps will be in the lower to middle 50s, with some patchy river valley fog developing towards morning.
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region though the weekend.
This is quickly followed by a sharp, yet weak, positively tilted trough that starts to move into the area Sunday afternoon and evening. At the surface, a high pressure to our north is maintaining surface northerlies over the area while Potential Tropical Cyclone One continues to move into the western Atlantic basin. Temperatures will rise into the lower 90's for most locations. MM/25 High Risk Rip Currents: Lastly, swell associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will persist at the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches through Sunday morning. The increased swell will keep the HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches through at least Sunday morning.
Overnight rainfall totals were very impressive, with 5 to 9 inches will isolated higher amounts in the Middle and Upper Keys, and roughly 2 to 4 inches in the Lower Keys. As Potential Tropical Cyclone One races to the northeast at almost 20 mph today, conditions across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters will begin to improve. Squally weather in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will likely continue through this afternoon, with MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities likely prevailing, mainly at EYW, during this time.
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate our weather this afternoon with sunny skies and mild temperatures expected.
In northern parts of the coverage area, temperatures will drop to the mid-upper 40s and reach the low- mid 70s for highs.
104 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure will result in dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend.
It will likely take until early this evening to erode the cap and forcing is not very robust, but hodographs near the front are nicely curved in the low levels, mid/upper lapse rates are steep, and DCAPE values are elevated across southwest Nebraska.
For this reason, leaned on the low side of guidance for dewpoints as most have initialized too high. Sunday will still be rather pleasant for the month of June as the high pressure system slowly weakens. Although dewpoints will be a bit higher in the low to mid 50s, high temperatures will only be a degree or two warmer at most.
However, there will be a weak mid-level trough approaching the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the warm weather will continue with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s everywhere except the immediate coast.
131 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dry high pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
302 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure remains in control through Sunday night as temperatures slowly moderate back above average.
High pressure will deliver warming temperatures and dry conditions, with the hottest temperatures of this spring season likely by the end of the coming week. This will translate to warming temperatures along with the typical afternoon southwest breezes each afternoon with some gusts around 25 to 30 mph, though winds will be stronger in areas influenced by the higher terrain. This will put us under a ridge, which will help to usher in much warmer air and increases our daytime highs.
This activity will mainly occur during the overnight and morning hours in our area as activity originates over the high plains each afternoon and evening and organizes and moves east southeast each night.
A more southeasterly flow in the lower levels will develop during the day on Sunday, which will result in an increase in low-level moisture with time across the area. Highs will range from the mid 80s east to the low 90s west and south.
328 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The cold front that pushed through the CWA yesterday has stalled across far southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Unassuming upper-level flow and high pressure extending down the southern Appalachians in the wake of an exiting Potential Tropical Cyclone One will promote near-zero PoPs and a mostly sunny sky area-wide on Sunday. Highs will generally be a couple degrees warmer than those today -- in the mid-80s to lower 90s, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s in the higher terrain of northeast GA.
154 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate our weather this afternoon with sunny skies and mild temperatures expected.
The pattern then appears to dry out and warm up near the end of the work week as ridging builds over the west.
Chances of precipitation will diminish overnight as strong subsidence develops over South Texas due to a ridge. The ridge will keep us dry and hot tonight through Sunday night.
At onset this evening, the primary jet and PV trough remains to our north across the Great Lakes, but an MCV and a few other short waves continue to push through the central and southern Plains farther south. Although a weak boundary will also linger in the vicinity of the Highway 20 corridor, the primary moisture fetch, and associated instability axis, should remain to our west tonight keeping nothing more than spotty low end convection in our forecast, especially along and north of the boundary where stratus may also develop. None look particularly favorable, but hail and wind would be the more likely concerns, although a brief tornado window couldn't be ruled out if the low level jet can augment 0-1km kinematics before MLCIN takes over.
Temperatures will be cooler today with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
1138 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Weak ridging has moved into the area this morning, and the associated subsidence is causing mostly clear skies during the early AM hours. Shear will be weak under the larger scale ridge aloft, so severe storms are not a primary concern, but lightning and small hail are possible for most locations at some point during the afternoon and evening.
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Cooler, cloudy and unsettled weather this weekend with shower chances through late Sunday. Visible satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing Northern California this afternoon associated with a low pressure system centered to our northwest. Temperatures are 5 to 15 degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago.
1004 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dirty, low amplitude ridge in place over south central Montana.
211 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Western and central North Dakota remains in northwest flow aloft with a ridge axis to our west across the Rocky Mountain chain and a closed low to our northeast over northeastern Manitoba. The lack of upper level high pressure and increased cloud cover will also keep temperatures on the cool side for this time of year through this period. Towards the middle of the week, the northern Plains region transitions to more of a northwest flow aloft as upper level ridging approaches from the west.
/19/ Tonight and Tomorrow: A weak upper trough embedded within broad northwesterly flow will slide into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into tomorrow. Nonetheless, overnight low temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low to mid 60s. Heading into tomorrow, a gradual warming trend will return following the cold frontal passage with afternoon high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. A stray diurnally driven shower or two cannot be completely ruled out near the state line, especially as the upper trough pivots overhead, but will keep the forecast dry for now given low QPF response in the latest suite of guidance.
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance Cooler and rather rainy for the next couple days. A series of closed upper lows at 50-60N across NOAM and adjacent oceans will keep a modest, relatively low-amplitude band of westerlies in place across the central and northern CONUS throughout the upcoming work week. There may be more breaks in the clouds here, too, which will lead to temperatures a couple degrees warmer across northern WI.
Expect light winds tonight with lows in the lower 60s.
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 (Tonight) At the sfc, we will be under the influence of high pressure, slacking NE winds and keeping conditions dry. Overnight lows will still be a little cool, in the lower 60s with a few spots reaching the upper 50s.
As Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves across the Florida Peninsula today into tonight, the swells across the northwestern Gulf will decrease. However, there will be a weak mid-level trough approaching the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the warm weather will continue with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s everywhere except the immediate coast.
Western and central North Dakota remains in northwest flow aloft with a ridge axis to our west across the Rocky Mountain chain and a closed low to our northeast over northeastern Manitoba. The lack of upper level high pressure and increased cloud cover will also keep temperatures on the cool side for this time of year through this period. Towards the middle of the week, the northern Plains region transitions to more of a northwest flow aloft as upper level ridging approaches from the west.
1015 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 A few showers and sprinkles from the Atlantic waters rolling onshore are all that remain of the rain effects from Potential Tropical Cyclone One tonight. Partly to mostly cloud with isolated showers and sprinkles possible along the coast, and lows in the lower 70s. Conditions are improving as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves offshore. VCSH/VCTS were included for most sites (except KDAB/KTIX/KMLB) tomorrow afternoon with the highest RA/TSRA coverage expected over the interior and Treasure Coast sites.
715 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region through the weekend.
420 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The weak ridge axis is slowly shifting east across eastern WY this afternoon, putting western WY in a better overall position for lift. Vorts trying to crest the minimal ridge, along with diffluence, are providing enough midlevel lift to bring another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Overnight still looks quiet with decreasing clouds as a weak ridge builds across the area. Chances of precipitation will diminish overnight as strong subsidence develops over South Texas due to a ridge. The ridge will keep us dry and hot tonight through Sunday night.
525 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Overall, no major changes to the short term forecast with an upper level low remaining nearly stationary across Ontario, and as a result, zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances propagating within the flow.
733 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Potential Tropical Cyclone One off the Florida east coast this evening will pull away to the east tonight and Sun. Potential Tropical Cyclone One tracks out over the Atlantic during the next couple of days with winds across the waters shifting from northeast to north then northwest and diminishing.
/Issued 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022/ The cold front that pushed through the CWA yesterday has stalled across far southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Unassuming upper-level flow and high pressure extending down the southern Appalachians in the wake of an exiting Potential Tropical Cyclone One will promote near-zero PoPs and a mostly sunny sky area-wide on Sunday. Highs will generally be a couple degrees warmer than those today -- in the mid-80s to lower 90s, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s in the higher terrain of northeast GA.
732 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The area will experience another pleasant night as high pressure ridging remains over central Illinois with light winds and a very dry air mass. This high pressure will push east as a weather system develops out west and moves toward the area tomorrow. With this, overnight lows will be in the lower 60s. Temps are expected to fall into the lower 60s overnight under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Another pleasant night is expected as a high pressure ridge sits over the area. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, though could be slightly warmer give the expected cloud cover.
An upper low remains off to the north, with ridging over the Rockies. Underneath the low there remains a relatively active fast flow over the forecast area during the short range. Temperatures on Sunday will be cooler than normal given all the clouds and pcpn.
Latest surface analysis shows Potential Tropical Cyclone One moving across South Florida this afternoon, a stationary front across the northern Gulf over to the SE coast, and another stationary front north of our area over portions of the OH valley. At the upper levels, there are a couple areas of low pressure over central and eastern Canada, with nearly zonal flow aloft locally. Low temps will be in the lower to middle 50s, with some patchy river valley fog developing towards morning.
This activity will mainly occur during the overnight and morning hours in our area as activity originates over the high plains each afternoon and evening and organizes and moves east southeast each night. Convection developing in the high plains this evening will move eastward tonight, and make a run at ern OK sites after 09z.
650 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Weak ridging has cleared skies out this evening, leaving a great night for outdoor activities. Afternoon highs should be similar tomorrow (upper 80s), but overnight lows will be warmer and stickier for the rest of the week.
High pressure will deliver warming temperatures and dry conditions, with the hottest readings of this spring season likely by the end of the coming week. Building high pressure aloft will be the main story this week.
1037 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Potential Tropical Cyclone One continues to move northeast across the western Atlantic and away from our area. Winds continue to decrease this evening as Potential Cyclone One continues to move northeast and away from the Florida Keys.
744 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure remains in control through Sunday night as temperatures slowly moderate back above average.
619 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The area will experience another pleasant night as high pressure ridging remains over central Illinois with light winds and a very dry air mass. This high pressure will push east as a weather system develops out west and moves toward the area tomorrow. With this, overnight lows will be in the lower 60s. Another pleasant night is expected as a high pressure ridge sits over the area. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, though could be slightly warmer give the expected cloud cover.
(Tonight) Mostly clear/mild wx conditions prevailed across the central TN Valley this Sat evening, with current temps falling predom into the lower/mid 70s. With dew pts near 60F coupled with light winds, temp trends should continue to fall into the lower 60s/near 60F heading into the early morning hrs.
326 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Synoptic Setup: A closed low of modified Arctic air currently lies over central Manitoba. A ridge anchored over the Desert Southwest runs north through western Montana and the Front Range of Alberta and British Columbia. To the West, another closed low lies over the coast of British Columbia. The ridge is currently pinched around northwestern Montana providing a weak point for disturbances to break off of the BC low and run along the International Border into northeast Montana where they can provide brief shots at lift and rain. In addition the low over northern Manitoba has a significant influence from it's airmass reaching southwest all the way over the high plains of Montana at times.
Strong high pressure will push temperatures well past climo by mid week.
/19/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: A weak upper trough embedded within broad northwesterly flow will slide into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into tomorrow. Nonetheless, overnight low temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low to mid 60s. Heading into tomorrow, a gradual warming trend will return following the cold frontal passage with afternoon high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. A stray diurnally driven shower or two cannot be completely ruled out near the state line, especially as the upper trough pivots overhead, but will keep the forecast dry for now given low QPF response in the latest suite of guidance.
358 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a continuation of the low amplitude pattern across the CONUS. The main features of note were an elongated area of low pressure which extended from western Ontario into southern Quebec. Low amplitude ridging was present from central Colorado north into central Montana. Downstream of this feature, low amplitude west northwesterly flow extended from the high plains, east into Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri.
A weak cold front moving southward and mostly through the region during the day resulted in PoPs held in the likely category over mainly western KY with lesser PoPs elsewhere, for the afternoon hours. Lows could cool to the lower 60s in the north by then.
245 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 (Issued 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022) Today: A continuation of the lower level frontogenetical forcing is on tap for today with the focus shifting a bit further north. may see some renewed development closer to the WI/IL border a bit later this afternoon in association with the surface warm front and a possible weak vort lobe but lower confidence on this. Extensive cloud cover and an easterly flow will keep the temps again on the cooler side.
Thinking right now is that the thunderstorms will miss the Panhandles to the northeast as the short wave trough is pretty far northeast.
Temperatures will continue to climb as low amplitude upper level ridging continues to dominate the synoptic pattern across our region.
After this trough moves through tonight, the upper air flow does not return to southwest, but stays zonal (west). Temperatures remain cooler than normal for the time of year with all the cloudiness.
1108 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022 High pressure remains in control through Sunday night as temperatures slowly moderate back above average.
301 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry and benign regime today with weak ridging and possible aided subsidence in the western wake of the tropical low as it tracks off the Carolina coast.
* Heavy Rain Tonight? For tonight, a stronger trough will move east across southern Minnesota and Iowa during the evening and early overnight. As a result, temperatures should remain generally cooler than normal. A quick look at the ECMWF ECE, shows high temperatures primarily in the lower and mid-70s.
The high clouds are moving out but still patches of clouds around mostly in the 6-9kft layer, and expect these to continue especially southern two thirds. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 64 88 68 86 / 10 0 10 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 88 67 85 / 10 0 10 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 85 63 87 66 84 / 10 0 10 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 57 85 62 84 / 0 0 10 20 60.
350 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 As of 08Z, elevated warm front lifting north toward I-90 is failing to sustain even spotty sprinkles which attempted to develop earlier tonight. As it continues to track east this afternoon, models continue to suggest moisture and instability building along and south of the low level warm front. Thus, despite the proximity of the low level boundary, think severe threat is isolated at best, as depicted by the SPC Marginal Risk.
328 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 At the upper levels, a low amplitude ridge axis was located near the Montana/North Dakota border. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs ranging from the lower 60s to the lower 70s. Ridging will continue to flatten near the Montana border as another wave comes through.
1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The weak ridge axis is slowly shifting east across eastern WY this afternoon, putting western WY in a better overall position for lift. Vorts trying to crest the minimal ridge, along with diffluence, are providing enough midlevel lift to bring another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms.