Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
853 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front this evening. Last of the showers and thunderstorms will drop south and/or dissipate over the next couple of hours with the loss of daytime heating and the continued progress of the cold front. Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints/humidity.
Clear skies this evening under high pressure. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will slowly slide eastward tonight into Sunday. The high will hold on long enough for mostly clear skies tonight into Sunday morning. Should be a little warmer tomorrow, as 925 mb temps increase to 22-24C by afternoon.
The core of the ridge of high pressure has shifted to the east toward the Appalachians, so we're starting to get a bit more into the southerly return flow on the western rim of the ridge. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will slowly slide eastward tonight into Sunday. The high will hold on long enough for mostly clear skies tonight into Sunday morning. Should be a little warmer tomorrow, as 925 mb temps increase to 22-24C by afternoon.
822 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will take hold of the region tonight as as high pressure builds in.
Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to the southwest with winds light out of the SW. That said, a trough axis continues to move across the region, and this is leading the development of a few showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. Models are in good agreement with heights rising in the wake of the previously mentioned trough and given the clearing skies kept at least patchy fog across a good portion of Eastern KY. Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS should result in a quiet but warm start to the period.
High pressure will be over the area the next several days.
626 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 After some morning fog, an absolutely beautiful Saturday afternoon across the area with high pressure in control across the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region. The area of high pressure will drift slowly east overnight as a mid- level trough and surface cold front pushes in across the Northern Plains into MN. The mid-level trough/surface cold front will continue to push east into northwest portions of the forecast area Sunday.
925 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Weak high pressure will build in today. but an upper-level disturbance and reinforcing cold front will pass through the area this evening.
841 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure will become centered over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon. Clear skies this evening under high pressure. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will slowly slide eastward tonight into Sunday. The high will hold on long enough for mostly clear skies tonight into Sunday morning. Should be a little warmer tomorrow, as 925 mb temps increase to 22-24C by afternoon.
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper level trough will sweep east across the region this evening.
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper trough brings showers and storms to northern areas through this evening.
An upper low remains in place off the southern California coast this evening while a deformation axis currently across central Utah continues to lift north. Also, with the deformation zone having exited the area tomorrow with no other notable source of lift, expect convection for much of the afternoon tomorrow to remain confined to the higher terrain.
Since then the east coast seabreeze had moved into the the highway 301 where there is some residual showers with embedded thunderstorms. At the surface, the ridge will shift northward through Sunday, with low level flow becoming easterly. The region will remain on the subsident side of the trough through the day. This combined with the subsidence aloft due to ridging building in from the east will lead to lower rain chances on Sunday. It will be hot on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s to near 90 at the beaches due to the onshore flow. A frontal boundary will then shift into the southeast by the middle of the week, and the ridge will shift back to the south again.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge remains extended from New Mexico east thru Texas and the Gulf Coast states out into the Atlantic, although nearly bifurcated by an inverted trough in the eastern Gulf. To the west, the upper-lvl trough remains anchored off the SoCal coast. At the sfc, return flow has abundant moisture backed up against the higher terrain and beyond, w/dewpoints in the 60s as far west as KELP. Beginning 06Z Sun, ensembles develop anomalously high PWAT over far West Texas, which should see abundant rainfall over the next couple of days as the aforementioned trough moves thru.
825 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Aloft - A low/inverted trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico drifts westward through Sun while a ridge from the Atlantic nudges across the southeastern states and westward along the central Gulf coast. Surface - A subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda reaches westward along 30 North Latitude and builds west to TX tonight. An inverted trough is embedded on the south side of the subtropical ridge and is near the Bahamas this evening. High pressure ridges north of the waters through midweek as a couple of troughs move across FL and out over the Gulf. The ridge begins to settles south toward the end of the week.
A decaying cold front has now stalled in South Florida. The weak cold front that pushed through won't be changing temperatures to much. Lows will range from the mid 50's north to the mid 60's south and highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80's. General longwave troughiness to remain over the eastern U.
We still could see winter weather advisory needs even with the lower snow totals now forecast.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic will slide eastward into Friday and allow for moist return flow back into the region. Expect temperatures to stay a bit warmer overnight, but lows will still drop into the 40s across the area. Arctic cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Friday, and with a combination of it, amplifying long wave trough, and a series of disturbances in the synoptic flow, a surface wave will develop over the southern Mississippi Valley.
A cold front extending from central MN/IA into central KS to push se through central IL during overnight, and thru southeast IL early Fri morning and still expected to pass through dry with winds shifting nw. Lows overnight range from upper 20s by Galesburg to upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL where cold front passes thru after sunrise Friday. 12Z models have trended further south with wx system ejecting out of the northern Rockies and into the lower MS river valley Fri evening.
The pressure gradient will then relax this evening into tonight as a cold front slides south across the region. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s, as the air mass right behind the front will not be all that cold. An upper level trough will dig south towards the area on Friday and then through the region Friday night. This trough will send a much colder air mass south into the area. There could still be a brief period of freezing rain across far southern Missouri as surface temperatures cool a tad faster than the warm nose.
Scattered convection will be possible along/near the leading advancement of the low ceilings. convection is expected to increase in coverage across the CWA as a strong cold front pushes southward through the region. Generally sided toward only extreme SE OK gaining full sfc based instability however the location of the advancing warm front will best be adjusted in near real time. Convection will eventually begin to spread southeastward as the mid level wave approaches and the associated strong sfc cold front accelerates southward. Sfc temps will cool quickly once the cold front passes and sub freezing temps are likely into NE OK by early Friday evening. Otherwise another hard freeze is expected and, given the high confidence in the cold air, headlines have been issued.
Even with a slowly moderating airmass, temperatures tonight will be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night.
Band of snow along a cold front will continue to move quickly and out of our southeast CWA by evening.
The early afternoon weather setup featured a broad upper- tropospheric trough anchored over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS with a sharp ridge axis positioned along the west coast. At the surface, an inverted baroclinic trough was tightening over central Kansas and southern Iowa. This trough is progged to swing through NE Kansas this afternoon and evening, exiting the area before midnight. Latest short-range and medium range forecast models are delaying the saturation of the lower troposphere and less aggressive on the strength of the mesoscale forcing.
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 For this evening, the models continue show that a short wave trough, currently over northern Minnesota, will move southeast through the area. The highest totals will be north of US Highway 10. On Friday, the models are in agreement that the upper level trough will move across the region. This will steepen the low level rates to around 8 C/km.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 66 46 51 / 0 90 90 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 64 42 48 / 0 90 100 60 Oak Ridge, TN 41 62 40 48 / 0 90 100 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 63 39 46 / 0 90 90 70.
547 PM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Upper level analysis has closed low and associated trof swinging through southern Manitoba, with ridging across the West Coast. At the surface, weak cold front has pushed through much of western SD with winds breezy out of the north. After midnight, snow will be heavy at times, especially across the warning areas, with up to 8 inches of snow possible, and locally higher amounts across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains Friday.
753 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure along the coast will move farther offshore Friday.
Breezy north winds will accompany a cold front Through late in the period.
Otherwise, the trailing cold front will push south through the area overnight bringing temperatures cooling to around 30 north of I-74 to around 40 south of I-70, with blustery northwest winds developing Friday morning. A cold front extending from central MN/IA into central KS to push se through central IL during overnight, and thru southeast IL early Fri morning and still expected to pass through dry with winds shifting nw. Lows overnight range from upper 20s by Galesburg to upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL where cold front passes thru after sunrise Friday. 12Z models have trended further south with wx system ejecting out of the northern Rockies and into the lower MS river valley Fri evening.
Flow below 850 mb has turned northeasterly, behind the departing cold front. According to WPC analysis, the cold front generating this band of moisture was positioned across the northern Florida Straights. Maximum temperatures will be in the lower 80s across the a majority of the peninsula.
Temperatures on Friday will be steady or slowly fall from the lower 30s into the upper 20s.
An approaching central Texas cold front may allow for the development of late Friday night showers.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s across interior southeast Georgia, the 50s across interior northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia, and the low 60s for coastal northeast Florida.
The high resolution models indicate some spotty streaks of higher QPF, although the frontogenesis and mid level lapse rates are not as high as they were earlier today. Road temp models have a steep drop off after sunset, well below freezing. Some blowing and drifting is not out of the question, with melting and refreezing during the remaining daylight hours today. With strong insolation some melting and refreezing of snow drifting across the roads could again be an issue.
However, in the lower levels of the atmosphere below 700mb, the atmosphere remained very dry and very stable.
The cold front is just through the forecast area early this afternoon. The problem is this will be in the morning and during the afternoon the temperatures will start to fall off and are expected to be in the lower 20s by late afternoon.
As the the warm front over northern Texas becomes better defined and moves northward overnight, fog is a good bet near the front where dewpoints near 60 move into air that is cooler.
According to WPC analysis, the cold front generating this band of moisture was positioned across the northern Florida Straights. Maximum temperatures will be in the lower 80s across the a majority of the peninsula.
953 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Elevated low level easterly winds will exist across the area tonight between high pressure building offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast and weak front south of Florida.
VFR ceilings will progress to at least low end MVFR ceilings by 07/00Z and possibly IFR by 07/03Z, as moisture advection progresses ahead of a sfc cold front that is anticipated to move in from northwest.
As an upper trough continues moving southeast across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region tonight through Friday, a surge of very cold air is expected to make its way south into mid- America.
1042 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure along the coast will move farther offshore Friday.
The region will see a brief break in showers tomorrow, except for lingering light showers across the higher terrain.
This convection along with IFR/MVFR conditions look to spread across much of the CWA during the day Friday as a strong cold front moves southward through the region.
A strong cold front will move across all three terminals tomorrow afternoon and evening. /issued 406 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018/ Vigorous upper low dropping southeast into the Great Lakes will send a strong cold front southward spreading into the northeast part of our area Friday afternoon, if not even earlier.
Weak surface lee trough/low will be followed by a vigorous cold front plunging into ne NM between 06/18-21Z then tracking rapidly south and westward. The main highlight through the weekend will be a strong cold front surging through the eastern plains with strong winds and areas of blowing dust late Friday afternoon.
Surface analysis shows this activity along a warm front with higher dewpoints to the southwest and lower dewpoints/drier air to the northeast.
1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 For this evening, the models continue show that a short wave trough, currently over northern Minnesota, will move southeast through the area. The highest totals will be north of US Highway 10. On Friday, the models are in agreement that the upper level trough will move across the region. This will steepen the low level rates to around 8 C/km.
Currently, Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity scans show an isolated cluster of showers drifting south-southwest, between the Florida Reef tract and the Straits of Florida south of the Seven Mile Bridge and Bahia Honda State Park.
649 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Band of snow along a cold front will continue to move quickly and out of our southeast CWA by evening.
A cold front is currently across northern Missouri and into central Kansas. On Friday, the cold front will move into the forecast area reaching north Mississippi by Friday evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. As the cold front moves through north Mississippi Friday evening more thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front.
Keeping an eye on -shsn activity farther upstream over MN associated with approaching cold front and compact mid-level short wave. These showers will continue to push east this afternoon, but unfortunately, the high-res guidance is not handling this band very well. High res guidance also brings some additional scattered precip developing behind the current band this evening, but given the performance of the high res guidance to this point, I have my doubts as to whether or not this additional precip will materialize. A second round of precipitation is possible as a cold front sweeps in from the NW.
Then, during the day Friday, strong north winds and MVFR cigs will continue behind a cold front.
Clouds will increase late tonight and on Friday, in advance of a strong cold front.
A cold front will move in by 11Z shifting the winds from a southerly wind to a northerly wind. A strong Canadian cold front will push through the Panhandles on Friday. Am leaning toward the faster models, which means cooler highs for Friday. Some light freezing rain, sleet and snow will all be possible overnight Friday as the column slowly cools aloft.
Tonight: Precipitation should move through quickly this evening, as surging high pressure moves into the Northern Plains. Friday: Near to record cold is expected on Friday as high pressure and a stiff northwest wind continues all day.
Cold front now over Minnesota also tracking southeast and will spread some light snow showers into far northern Iowa yet this evening. Highs Friday warm only into the lower 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast Friday.
Tonight, as the high pressure area that followed the last cold front moves to the east, the pressure gradient will actually relax somewhat, allowing winds to diminish to between 10 and 15 mph through the overnight hours. A powerful upper level low moving through the Great Lakes region will send a cold front into the area late in the afternoon Friday. With the combination of compressional warming ahead of the cold front, and dry, hot, downsloping air behind the dryline, temperatures will be hot across the area, with some lower 90s possible in the Concho Valley. (Friday night through Thursday) A strong cold front will move through the Big Country early Friday evening and south of I-10 around midnight.
Cooler with a chance of showers for the latter half of the week. A Delta breeze is bringing somewhat cooler temperatures into the Delta, and this will strengthen and spread into the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys by this evening and overnight. Cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches the coast. A surface cold front with the trough will spread chances of rain into the northern Coastal Range by late Wednesday afternoon.
241 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Continued north to northeast flow due to high pressure to the north will bring relatively cool and dry air through central and southeast IL over the upcoming day. Expecting a slight cooling for Wednesday compared with today, as morning lows reach the low to mid 50s, and highs reach the mid to upper 70s.
Outside of convection, winds will trend east/NE behind a combined cold front and outflow boundary. Noticeably cooler/miider on Wednesday, as 850 mb temperatures drop back to the mid teens C.
410 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Added thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the southern highlands for the rest of the afternoon and evening where radar/satellite have shown some development.
The upper ridge will be over the area on Wednesday and Wed.
For Wednesday moisture is limited to the lower levels of the atmosphere as 700-500mb moisture very dry. The forecast area will continue to be on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge to the south.
1133 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level analysis shows a positively tilted upper ridge extending from Ontario to the Four Corners region with an upper low sliding across southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through central South Dakota with high pressure beginning to build over Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures today will be cooler, but near average, behind the cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the eastern portions of the forecast area as the cold front continues to progress eastward and the upper level wave moves into the eastern Dakotas. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow an isolated shower or storm to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 (Tonight and Wednesday) Despite the northeast surface winds, temperatures have climbed nicely across West Central Texas this afternoon with readings from the mid 80s into the lower 90s.
A weak trough will cross the area Wednesday accompanied by a few clouds.
358 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Quiet weather into Wed as high pressure remains in control. All areas should end up cooler than last night, so favored cold spots in the interior may drop into low to mid 30s. High pressure settles to the central Great Lakes on Wed while low pressure trough slides over northern Ontario. Warmer aloft with h85 temps into the lower teens and once again sunny skies, so max temps away from lake modification will be into the mid or upper 70s.
330 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure across the western Great Lakes/Corn Belt providing a spectacular early June day to the area. 3 pm temperatures in the dvn cwa were in the mid 70s to the lower 80s, along with a rather light northeast wind and noticeably low humidity. Forecast focus is high pressure in control. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 50s at most locations, perhaps upper 40s in far nw IL.
At the surface, low pressure will move slowly across the northern gulf keeping a low level south to southwest flow across the region. The breezy south to southwest flow will also cause tides to run about 1 to 2 feet above normal along the Nature Coast around the time of the highest tides which is around midday on Wednesday.
209 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low through much of the week. High pressure and warming conditions for this weekend. Upper level low/trough continues to sag south this afternoon. Overnight will be quite cool with weak northerly flow and temperatures dropping into the low 50s and cooler in the mountains. Upper level low pushes overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Upper low over the area giving unsettled weather which is inherently difficult to time.
Cooler daytime temps Wednesday with 70s for highs. Short wave will move east of the region Wed night as a long wave ridge sets up over the northern Rockies. A little warmer Fri as ridge edges closer and winds switch to the south, with dry conditions prevailing and highs in the 80s. Nevertheless, the better potential for sfc based convection would be during the day on Sat as a cold front moves through the area.
The storms are wrapping around the western side of the same low pressure area that has brought several days of very wet weather. Convection is forecast to wane this evening with the loss of diurnal heating and as the low continues its slow eastward retreat, a cold front will swing through the area overnight tonight.
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Quiet weather into Wed as high pressure remains in control. All areas should end up cooler than last night, so favored cold spots in the interior may drop into low to mid 30s. High pressure settles to the central Great Lakes on Wed while low pressure trough slides over northern Ontario. Warmer aloft with h85 temps into the lower teens and once again sunny skies, so max temps away from lake modification will be into the mid or upper 70s.
/issued 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the northern and central mountains of New Mexico associated with very steep mid level lapse rates with an upper level disturbance within an upper level ridge.
A cold front appears to be pressing south and this is setting up the better focus across KS and Scntl Neb. High pressure ridging will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into the Rockies though the end of the week. This generates weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge across our area.
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure will move slowly south across the Great Lakes the next couple of days providing generally dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures.