Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER PORTIONS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
345 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015 THE MAIN UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BURST OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THEN EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE FOR FAR SE UT AND SW CO AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA MOVES ACROSS NRN AZ INTO CENTRAL NM. THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE BROAD TROUGH FROM LATE WEEK ONWARD. MEANING THE PROBABILITY OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND STORMY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE 145W MERIDIAN DURING THIS TIME.
811 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015 CURRENT TEMPERATURES ABOUT AS COLD AS ITS GOING TO GET TONIGHT MOST PLACES AS DEVELOPING LEESIDE TROF WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOBE OF THE UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES OVER THE REGION. FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. PROGGED MIX DOWN NUMBERS POINT TO WARMER TEMPS. BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE.
946 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COMING TO END ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES SHOWING ON RADAR. WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS AREA. AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ARE BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL LIKELY ADVECT SE AND SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MN DURING THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST OF MN.
534 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 LARGE SCALE FLOW PER SATL IMAGERY REVEALING AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OFF THE WRN U. COASTLINE ALONG WITH A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER THE CA/NV BORDER. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER TIER COUNTIES IN SERN NEB MAY PROVIDE A RA/SN MIX DURING THE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT GOOD MIXING ON TUES WILL ALLOW HIGH TO PUSH INTO THE U30S/LOW40S BEFORE THE DOWNWARD PLUNGE TAKES PLACE WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENVELOPS THE CNTRL PLAINS CULMINATING IN THURS HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MIN TEENS. WITH LARGE SCALE TROF REMAINING PLACE OVER THE CONUS. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. MVFR CIGS AREA A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
600 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015 1040+ mb Arctic ridge centered over eastern Missouri and western Illinois this afternoon. As the high continues to sink southeast towards the Ohio Valley by 12z, light north/west low level winds will back to southwest and strengthen towards daybreak, in response to low pressure tracking north of the Great Lakes. A strong area of low pressure will be pushing north of the Great Lakes on Tuesday bringing our area gusty southwest winds which should help to push afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 30s.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY MAY APPROACH FREEZING THOUGH.
648 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A HALFWAY DECENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A STILL RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK. WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
Current area of breezy winds (gusts 15-25 kts) vcnty KCTB/KGTF/KHVR will see lighter winds after sunset and through the overnight period, but will strengthen again Tues morning ahead of a Canadian cold front due to arrive tomorrow evening.
920 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH NE FL THIS EVE AND WAS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF IT. BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL EAST COAST AND THE FRONT EDGES BACK NORTH. CIGS EXPECTED TO GO DOWN FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SWD AND N TO NE FLOW SETS IN.
The main concern in the short term is with the potential for freezing drizzle tonight into mid-morning Tuesday. Some patchy fog and freezing drizzle has occurred across parts of the eastern half of our area this afternoon. With further moistening of the boundary layer, expect fog and freezing drizzle to become more widespread across west central Texas tonight. With temperatures remaining well-below freezing tonight, could have a new glaze of ice develop on some bridges, overpasses, and roads. After mid-morning Tuesday, any lingering fog/drizzle will dissipate with temperatures finally climbing above freezing. (Tuesday night through Monday) Models show a compact but potent upper low moving across the area Tuesday night.
On the back side of the high winds have come around to the southwest across central and north central Kansas this afternoon. Nearly zonal flow will continue through the night before shifting back to a northwest flow aloft on Tuesday in response to an upper level trough moving southeast into the Great Lakes late tonight and Tuesday. Soundings suggest that the lower boundary layer will be mixed through the night.
Arctic high pressure will continue to build across the area through this evening and then shift off to the east overnight. With high pressure over the area winds will be light and variable to calm overnight. Counties nearer to the TN border will have thicker clouds and will be farther from the center of the high, so temps should stay a bit warmer in the teens. This will usher in warmer air ahead of the next front.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AS EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SHOOT TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
1001 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ARE BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS.
Areas of light freezing drizzle may develop this evening and continue through the early morning hours Tuesday. The main concern in the short term is with the potential for freezing drizzle tonight into mid-morning Tuesday. Some patchy fog and freezing drizzle has occurred across parts of the eastern half of our area this afternoon. With further moistening of the boundary layer, expect fog and freezing drizzle to become more widespread across west central Texas tonight. With temperatures remaining well-below freezing tonight, could have a new glaze of ice develop on some bridges, overpasses, and roads. After mid-morning Tuesday, any lingering fog/drizzle will dissipate with temperatures finally climbing above freezing. (Tuesday night through Monday) Models show a compact but potent upper low moving across the area Tuesday night.
320 PM PST MON FEB 23 2015 ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN PRODUCING PATCH DENSE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FOG OVER THE VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO SOUTHWEST OF BELRIDGE. THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE TEMBLORS IN NORTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
FREEZING RAIN. COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS.
WEAK FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF APPROACHING H70 TROUGH ALLOWING SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO FORM ACROSS NORTHER-CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
545 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 WARM ADVECTION HAS BEGAN WITH THE RETREAT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AS FLOW AT 2-3KFT INCREASES CLOSE TO 50KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME NEAR SURFACE MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES THE STATE.
OCCASIONAL -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AT KCDS. UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW LEADING TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING THROUGH EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAN JOAQUINVALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL PULL EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY. BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF THAT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE THAT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
505 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015 High pressure moving across northern Missouri this afternoon was giving the Ozarks some sunshine. The area of high pressure will continue to control the region's weather through the overnight hours though some lingering high clouds will move over the area. This will occur in advance of an upper level trough that will begin to move across the plains during the day on Tuesday.
433 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN STUBBORNLY ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IN TERMS OF FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP AMID THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREEZING. WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS IS. AS DOES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFT/EVE AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WITH A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 06Z/TUE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE LOWEST LEVEL AT OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS.
1032 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT LEAST IN THE CLOUD LAYER. ZONAL PATTERN AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUD LAYER FOR MOST AREAS. FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SINCE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THERE ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT WHILE FROST IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY IN COOS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING, SO WE'LL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 06Z/TUE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE LOWEST LEVEL AT OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD TODAY (NO SURPRISE), WITH TEMPS ONLY CREEPING BRIEFLY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH, PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON CLOUD-UP. HOWEVER, BELIEVE DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY A VIRGA EVENT, WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES WAFTING TO THE GROUND.
711 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 AVIATION A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE DEALS WITH THE IMPACT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
525 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
/ISSUED 433 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/ TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN STUBBORNLY ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IN TERMS OF FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP AMID THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREEZING. WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS IS. AS DOES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFT/EVE AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WITH A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
HELPING TO ERODE THE LOW CEILINGS ALLOWING FOR BVO/TUL/RVS/XNA/ROG TO LIFT INTO VFR CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S SOUTH TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS SW VA AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 26 42 26 40 / 60 60 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 40 26 38 / 80 80 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 22 38 25 38 / 70 60 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 35 23 35 / 80 80 10 10 NC.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SHOWING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. THEN SLOWLY CLEARS AS A COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WITH RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF MID-WEEK AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC KEEPS THE DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAC NW TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUE.
705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015 COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
COURTESY OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS.
612 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING, SO WE'LL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
Though not indicated in most TAFs (CNM the exception), a light freezing drizzle or snow is possible overnight but is not expected to leave much if any additional ice. temps have budged little all day, and remain well blo freezing except areas far south. Plenty of black ice remains, temps are not anticipated to budge overnight, and w/accidents ongoing, we have opted to downgrade the warning to an advisory, and extended the advisories thru until 18Z Tuesday, after which temps will climb abv freezing.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
647 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
625 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
107 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A NEW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE AROUND 17-20:1.
A strong upper low moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the country.
SATURATION IS OCCURRING AT THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS.
1150 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.
ANOTHER MAJOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION DURING THIS PERIOD (THIS EVENING). SINCE THE EDGE OF THE SNOWPACK HAS RETREATED SOME, MORE AREAS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
421 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 09Z FEATURE JUST SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TRACKING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER RATIOS.
Light rain is falling over most of the area late this evening with a few reports of freezing precipitation. Here, temperatures will remain above freezing with rain developing after midnight. /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/ Main concern is with the amount of snow tonight and the exact track of the compact and potent upper low. It is possible that the current Winter Weather Advisory may need to be extended about a row of counties to the south which would include San Angelo if the track of the low digs a little more. Went with rain/snow for San Angelo to San Saba with about a half inch but this is the area to be watched that may need to be upgraded if the upper low shifts a little further south.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND IS FORECAST NORTHEAST TODAY REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE REPORTS EARLIER. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO EXPECT PRESSURE RISES TO GENERATE A STEADY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND OF 7-12KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDS. WEDS OUR HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S WARMER VALLEYS.
AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING. IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TAKES AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A MOIST PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AFTER 18Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
1249 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A NEW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. BUT THEN COOL TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AS THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS COULD POSE A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DECENT WARMING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS NOW APPROACHING FREEZING WITH MID TO UPPER 20S MAKING A RUN FOR WESTERN COUNTIES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND WILL THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST.
359 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
AND FINALLY ABOVE GROUND FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 1200FT AND 1500FT) ALL COME UP ON THE PREDOMINATE RAIN SIDE OF THE ISSUE. /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER TROF REACHES CENTRAL TX EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW FCST TO TRACK NE TWD THE FL PANHANDLE BY WED EVE AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
CIRRUS HAS FORMED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.
/ISSUED 940 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM THAT WILL RACE ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. RAPID MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LIFT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST ADVECTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE 18Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 150 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER ABOVE THIS. THERE IS A WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB WHERE THE TEMPERATURE GOES JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SOUNDING IS BELOW FREEZING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOMETIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.