Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies across interior NorCal as the upper ridge amplifies along the West Coast. Northerly winds with gusts of 15-25 mph continue through much of the Central Valley while northeast gusts of 35-60 mph continue across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada. Breezy to windy conditions will continue today in the Sacramento Valley and over the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada, though winds are expected to decrease gradually through the day as pressure gradients relax. Most of the valley is expected to see minimum temperatures remain slightly above the freezing mark as residual north winds continue. Areas that see winds go calm will see a greater potential for readings dipping down to the freezing mark or slightly below, though dew points are forecast to recover into the lower to mid 30s.
Low pressure was located over northern Lake Superior as of this morning. Low pressure will continue to exit the region to the north and east today, leaving snow showers/flurries as well as windy conditions with snow showers.
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front draped across Central Texas, extending from the Big Bend region to the northeast of Austin. A deep 500 mb trough will move into the eastern U. and bring a strong cold front through deep south Texas this afternoon and evening. High temperatures across the northern ranchlands are expected to reach the upper 70s before the cold front surges through the area in the early afternoon. The strong cold front should be through the entire area and off the lower Texas coast by late evening. Temperatures will quickly drop everywhere from the lower 80s this afternoon to the mid to upper 40s by Wednesday morning. The day time high temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 40s courtesy of moderate to breezy north winds and cloudy skies.
No real weather to speak of as high pressure starts to build in from the west.
Still expecting the line of shallow convection associated with the approaching cold front to pass through with minimal chances for thunder, but chances aren't zero so I have continued the slight chance for thunderstorms. The forward speed of the area of rain and the associated cold front has been slowed down by all models and have therefore made adjustments to the onset of rain by a couple hours. There remains low instability with the short wave and cold front, but enough to keep the slight chance of thunder in the grids for today and early tonight along and ahead of the cold front. As the upper trough continues to deepen, another short wave will move across the southeast late Wednesday bringing another increase in pops Wednesday afternoon across most of the CWA. Additionally, amplified trough will remain positioned over the eastern U.
430 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong high pressure will intensify over the Pacific Northwest early this week, persisting through at least the weekend. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop in the lowlands by midweek, persisting through at least the weekend. Today and Wednesday: The main forecast challenge for the next several days will be the potential for fog and low clouds under an increasingly strong high pressure ridge.
The extended continues to look quiet with a ridge over the western US. Temperatures from Rosebud County west will generally be above normal, while towards the Dakotas temperatures could be a few degrees cooler. There is still some spread in the ensemble guidance with temperatures in the east due to the possibility that the ridge may shift enough west to let a little cold air backdoor into eastern Montana.
Current thinking is for the highest gusts to occur across the eastern Panhandle and areas of the western Sandhills with gusts up to 35-40 mph. A blocking pattern is in place aloft, with a persistent cold upper trough across the eastern U. , and a large upper ridge across the west. A Pacific airmass will dominate across our region the next several days, as mild Pacific air moves north across the Gulf of Alaska then turns east and spills southeast along the lee of the Rocky mountains on the eastern side of the upper ridge.
414 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 Upper level analysis has a large trof across the north central CONUS with large ridge off the West Coast. At the surface, low pressure is located over the Great Lakes region and high pressure remains across the Rockies. Strong northerly flow will persist through the week as the main upper trof sets up across the eastern CONUS, and a ridge builds over the west. Towards the end of the week, a gradual warming and drying trend is expected as the western upper ridge shifts eastward into the Great Basin area.
601 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong cold front Tuesday.
403 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Today and Tonight: As of early this morning, the much anticipated cold front is knocking on our door. An area of light showers was lifting northeast across the forecast area ahead of this cold front. Light rain will continue to be possible for a few hours after the frontal passage, however rain chances will diminish by this evening as drier air starts to work its way into the lower levels. A slight chance for light rain will return to mainly southern parts of the area by daybreak, as frontogenetic forcing associated with the elevated cold front causes moist, isentropic lift over the cooler surface airmass.
737 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain is expected today with a crossing cold front. Maintained categorical POPs today as an upper trough advances out of the Upper Midwest, and it's associated cold front approaches and crosses the area. The cold front should complete it's passage into Central PA by early evening, with rain ending. Maintained a brief chance of snow showers for the higher terrain E-SE of PIT, though little precip is expected to remain by the time cold air arrives. Variably cloudy conditions are expected through the rest of the period in cold advection and broad upper troughing.
/Today through Tonight/ The cold front is through us as evidenced by the nearly 40 degree drop in temps from this time yesterday and the strong northwest wind in place. For today the upper trough will swing through the state and with a tight pressure gradient still in place.
cold temperatures have settled across Southern Colorado early this morning with generally teens across the Plains, while single digits are seen up in the higher elevations. This will send a weak cold front south across the Plains late tonight with another shot of cold air with it.
540 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong low pressure over south central Canada will drift northeast over the next 24 hours while the pattern aloft begins transitioning to a high amplitude ridge over the western U. and full longwave trof over the east.
Upper trough progressing toward the Upper Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley with surface cold front heading into Middle Tennessee at mid morning. In this environment, with the upper level flow flattening out with time; as is usually the case with a weak system, the boundary should struggle a bit over the higher Cumberland Plateau terrain.
522 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold front has exited the southeast tip of the forecast area early this morning, with the rain recently ending at Lawrenceville. While the southwest half of the forecast area may eke out some lower 40s this afternoon, temperatures will fall well below freezing tonight.
Expectations are for some burn off through the day so have tempered areas of freezing fog down to patchy and reduced the size of the stratus field. High pressure ridge to the west is keeping eastern Idaho in a cold northerly airflow pattern, suppressing the warm-up with continued cold air advection. Expect Wed highs to be 4 to 7 deg F warmer than today.
Otherwise as weak high pressure pushes off the coast winds become south and expect Mostly Sunny skies and temps pushing well into the 70s to around 80 degrees at inland areas. Clouds increase ahead of cold front tonight with lower chances of fog with winds stay just elevated enough, although Hi-res models trying to support some lower stratus decks pushing off the NE Gomex into inland SE GA and inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor after midnight and will need to monitor these trends if it appears as though this may lead to more dense fog formation as it spreads across NE FL/SE GA towards Wed Morning. Chances for fog again tonight ahead of the approaching cold front too low at this time to include in the TAF forecasts.
A potential winter storm is heading toward west Texas and Much cooler temperatures are expected today across the entire forecast area as an upper level trough across the Mississippi valley sends a strong cold front towards the Mexican border this morning. A high probability of a mixture of snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain is expected to rapidly develop late tonight across much of the region. Forecast soundings indicate that freezing rain will be the more dominant precipitation type later tonight across the mountains. The mixed precipitation will be more confined to the Big Bend Wednesday night where warmer air aloft and at the surface will linger.
Today Through Wednesday Night Cold front and a weakening line of rain and thunderstorms moved through much of the area during the overnight and early morning hours. Dewpoints as of 2 am CST are already in 20s across the north with values likely bottoming out in the lower teens across the north by afternoon. Throughout the day, cold air will continue to filter south and afternoon highs will be some 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
A strong cold front approaching from the west will move through the area late this afternoon into the early evening hours. A positively tilted upper trof extending from the western Great Lakes to the four corners region strengthens while shifting gradually eastward through tonight.
The upper trough continues to dig into the Northern Plains, and the main trough axis will be moving off to the east today. These weak disturbances could propagate down into the eastern Northern Plains/western Great Lakes region and bring precipitation chances as well as cooler temperatures to northwest Minnesota and possibly the Red River Valley and eastern North Dakota.
1000 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Showers will move across the area this morning as a cold front traverses through the Ohio Valley.
The forward speed of the area of rain and the associated cold front has been slowed down by all models and have therefore made adjustments to the onset of rain by a couple hours. There remains low instability with the short wave and cold front, but enough to keep the slight chance of thunder in the grids for today and early tonight along and ahead of the cold front. As the upper trough continues to deepen, another short wave will move across the southeast late Wednesday bringing another increase in pops Wednesday afternoon across most of the CWA. Additionally, amplified trough will remain positioned over the eastern U.
613 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Aviation A strong cold front will push east of the region today.
The cold front has pushed south of Woodville and is just passing Jasper and Anacoco this morning. A strong cold front is located at 05/11Z from northern Louisiana to central Texas making steady progress to the southeast. The cold front is expected to reach KAEX around 15Z, KLCH/KBPT around 18Z and KLFT/KARA between 20Z and 21Z. A cold front, however, is heading our way from the north.
By daybreak Wednesday temperatures will be in the lower to middle 20s. Otherwise bulk of day within mature northern Upper Great Lakes cyclone dry slot, and partial breaks later this afternoon to further enhance surface based lapse rates/allow for deeper mixing potential.
325 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 A high pressure ridge will remain along the Pacific coast through the remainder of this week.
800 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 Extended the High Wind Warning until 2 pm this afternoon for Arlington and added Bordeaux based on their recent wind speeds. Clear to partly cloudy skies over the CWA with an upper trough axis moving east of the area.
Intense low pressure (975 mb) was located over Lake Superior with a strong cold front extending to Indiana and then to Texas. Intense low pressure in the northern Great Lakes will keep strong westerly winds blowing for much of the day. Tonight: Winds will diminish rapidly by sunset (which is really early these days!) as the cyclone fills and the atmosphere decouples.
The coldest air so far this season settling over the region will lead to freezing low temperatures across much of the region through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will slowly recover late this week with winds gradually decreasing except for the lower Colorado River Valley where breezy to windy conditions will persist into the weekend. These sites should approach freezing around or shortly after sunrise. Freezing temps in the Las Vegas Valley and northeast Clark County will be a little more extensive with lighter winds early Wednesday morning. A gradual increase in temperatures will be noted Wednesday afternoon with highs forecast around 5 degrees warmer than today.
Latest upper level analysis places upper trough axis over far eastern Dakotas with broad cyclonic flow over the northern plains stretching out over the Great Lakes. Split flow aloft is evident over the southern plains as an elongated positive tilt trough over southern CA/NV maintains zonal flow over the southern CONUS with northerly flow impinging in wake of the northern plains trough. Anticyclonic flow is becoming more dominant now centered just off the west coast as a high pressure ridge is amplifying there. Temperatures are already at or below freezing as of 0900z and will continue to fall into the 20s as north winds decrease to around 5-10 knots this morning. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by the amplifying ridge over the west coast and the long wave trough over the eastern CONUS.
An amplified upper ridge was located offshore from the west coast Tuesday morning. However, the upper ridge will stubbornly remain in place over the region. Strong high pressure and dry offshore flow will continue to produce clear skies for the coastal terminals today through tonight.
The much talked about ridge is building closer to the coast this morning. Northwest flow aloft will veer to northerly by Wed as the high-amplitude ridge becomes aligned just offshore. We have continued the trend of cooling the valleys and warming the higher elevations in the short term. We expect the inversion to show itself first in the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser River Basin, along with all the mountain-valleys. There is no way to know for sure when low clouds or fog will begin, so we have continued the ongoing forecast of hinting at it mainly in the Lower Treasure Valley Wed.
543 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain is expected today with a crossing cold front. Maintained categorical POPs today as an upper trough advances out of the Upper Midwest, and it's associated cold front approaches and crosses the area. The cold front should complete it's passage into Central PA by early evening, with rain ending. Maintained a brief chance of snow showers for the higher terrain E-SE of PIT, though little precip is expected to remain by the time cold air arrives. Variably cloudy conditions are expected through the rest of the period in cold advection and broad upper troughing.
638 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 Upper level analysis has a large trof across the north central CONUS with large ridge off the West Coast. At the surface, low pressure is located over the Great Lakes region and high pressure remains across the Rockies. Strong northerly flow will persist through the week as the main upper trof sets up across the eastern CONUS, and a ridge builds over the west. Towards the end of the week, a gradual warming and drying trend is expected as the western upper ridge shifts eastward into the Great Basin area.
(Today and Tonight) A cold front was moving south through the Interstate 10 corridor at around 09Z. By tonight, models show an upper trough from the Northern Plains approaching our area, increasing large scale lift across much of the area. Some of this precipitation will be a mix of rain, freezing rain, snow or sleet mainly west of a line from Abilene to Eden to Junction. Lows tonight should fall into the lower 30s as wetbulb cooling takes place with surface dewpoints in the lower 20s.
Much colder air will rush in behind a strong cold front today and tonight.
624 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Stg cold front movg across southern portions of the cwa with a line of showers with moderate to heavy rainfall along the front, and a few heavy showers south of front. /issued 327 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/ Cold front currently along a line from Rusk, Texas, to El Dorado, Arkansas. Pressure gradient to relax overnight as high pressure settles across the region.
The snow has come to an end with the exception of a few flurries or very light snow showers coming out of the low clouds on the back side of the system. Temperatures have fallen into the teens in western MN and the low 20s in eastern MN and western WI.
The rain is ahead of a cold front which is also moving through the region. Cooler air will filter into the region behind the front so temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. By tonight, the cold front will be well south of the region so no rain is expected. Temperatures will be much cooler than the past couple of days with lows Wednesday morning in the mid to upper 30s. Another weaker cold front will move through the region Wednesday night.
A strong cold front is knocking on the door at 09Z. Once the cold front clear the area cold air settles in and several upper level impulses /clipper systems/ move through the southeast.
Near normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 40s expected.
A low pressure system will bring scattered showers east of Tucson through tonight.
642 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A cold front will sweep across the area early late today and this evening. The weather will turn drastically colder as the overall pattern turns to a deep trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and a ridge over the west. Well-advertised cold front will drop 8H temps about 15C overnight. Global model and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement on the maintenance of high latitude blocking pattern featuring an amplified ridge-trough configuration over the West Coast and eastern NOAM. Finally, there appears to be multiple waves of low pressure lifting north along a western Atlantic front from late week into the early weekend timeframe, with guidance varying on specifics. Several bands of showers with the cold front to the west.
Luckily, the record will stand another year, as the low temperature was 71 degrees this morning.
Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler with the cloudy areas as well. /Today through Tonight/ The cold front is through us as evidenced by the nearly 40 degree drop in temps from this time yesterday and the strong northwest wind in place. For today the upper trough will swing through the state and with a tight pressure gradient still in place.
253 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong high pressure will intensify over the Pacific Northwest early this week, persisting through at least the weekend. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop in the lowlands by midweek, persisting through at least the weekend. Today and Wednesday: The main forecast challenge for the next several days will be the potential for fog and low clouds under an increasingly strong high pressure ridge.
Cold temperatures start to this morning along with some patchy freezing fog.
A positively tilted upper trof extending from the western Great Lakes to the four corners region strengthens while shifting gradually eastward through tonight.
The low pressure system that brought our abrupt arrival into winter continues to push into the Great Lakes region. High temperatures will remain below the freezing mark for most locations with wind chills in the single digits or colder. Some moderation in temperatures is possible by the weekend with the upper trough pulling east and a building ridge to the west.
650 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 A cold front will sweep across the area early late today and this evening. The weather will turn drastically colder as the overall pattern turns to a deep trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and a ridge over the west. Well-advertised cold front will drop 8H temps about 15C overnight. Global model and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement on the maintenance of high latitude blocking pattern featuring an amplified ridge-trough configuration over the West Coast and eastern NOAM. Finally, there appears to be multiple waves of low pressure lifting north along a western Atlantic front from late week into the early weekend timeframe, with guidance varying on specifics. Several bands of showers with the cold front to the west.
928 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong cold front Tuesday.
520 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Brisk weather and much cooler temperatures have settled into the area. An upper-level ridge extended along the eastern US coast into New England, with another off the northern Pacific coast. Cold air had plunged into the central US, with an 850mb low centered in northern MN/western ON and 850mb cold front extending from near the WI-MN border through eastern IA/northwest MO/southeast KS. Behind the low and front, 850mb temperatures were in the teens below 0C from northern NE through the Dakotas. The low- to mid-level baroclinic zone should linger across the area on Wednesday, with reinforcing cold air pushing the boundary southward on Wednesday night.
A cooler day is in store following yesterday's strong cold front passage. While not an arctic airmass for our part of the world by any means, it will be noticeably cooler as temperatures struggle to get much above the mid 40s for most locations. Tonight, continued very dry airmass with dewpoints in the lower teens will allow temperatures to fall well down into the lower 20s with upper teens along/west of U83. On the hemispheric scale, ridging along the West Coast and deep troughing across the eastern half of North America will continue. The next coherent cold front looks to be Wednesday Night, as the global models agree 850mb temperatures in the -8 to -11C range will push into Kansas, but mainly the central part of the state.
expect temperatures to rebound to the mid-40s by afternoon as west/northwesterly downslope flow will allow warmer air to return to the region.
Due to the positioning of this high the forecast area will remain in a tight pressure gradient although not as strong as directly following the front. The 850 mb temperatures should briefly rise a few degrees today and as a result the highs should reach the mid 40s. By Wednesday, an expansive mid-level trough will be stretched across the eastern half of the CONUS, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the central U. Models show this strong mid-level trough remaining anchored over the eastern U.
/Issued 341 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/ Pattern change well underway with amplifying western ridge / eastern trough and this pattern is forecast to be maintained through the forecast period. Frequent cold frontal passages can expected within this pattern with little to no chance of meaningful precip.
Then an upper level disturbance will result in the development of a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow by 09Z across most of the TAF sites except for KJCT. (Today and Tonight) A cold front was moving south through the Interstate 10 corridor at around 09Z. By tonight, models show an upper trough from the Northern Plains approaching our area, increasing large scale lift across much of the area. Some of this precipitation will be a mix of rain, freezing rain, snow or sleet mainly west of a line from Abilene to Eden to Junction. Lows tonight should fall into the lower 30s as wetbulb cooling takes place with surface dewpoints in the lower 20s.
High pressure ridge to the west is keeping eastern Idaho in a cold northerly airflow pattern, suppressing the warm-up with continued cold air advection. Expect Wed highs to be 4 to 7 deg F warmer than today.
Clear to partly cloudy skies over the CWA with an upper trough axis moving east of the area.