Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sfc Warm Front is very subtle tonight but appears to be located near a Tyler, Texas to El Dorado, Arkansas line. Until that time, have added areas of fog to the grids north of the warm front with some observing sites showing some patchy dense fog this evening. The parent upper low in the Rockies is nudging the front back our way and quickly so Saturday with heating adding some chance for severe TSTMS in the midday to sunset timeframe.
For the Plains, soundings indicate that the potential the for freezing drizzle will be possible. Most locations have freezing drizzle back to La Junta, although it could be a bit further west. For now, have the greatest potential for freezing drizzle to remain in place for the far Eastern Plains. the expected trough over the region is forecast to move away from the area with westerly flow aloft replacing it. Westerly flow will mix down the the surface helping to warm up the Plains into the lower 40s.
you will be warmer Saturday as westerly winds push across the region as Pacific flow increases. A series of upper lows and troughs will move onto the Pacific northwest coast, then dig southeast into the four corners area during the next several days, and this is where the bulk of any precipitation will be situated.
North of there, there remains concerns for a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Knox and Fulton Counties, where some light icing is expected on elevated surfaces and bridge decks. Any icing will not last long, as temperatures reach above freezing by mid to late morning. Main cold front will be sweeping across the area Saturday evening, with PoP's rapidly dropping off behind the front.
Otherwise mostly clear skies this evening with sfc winds becoming near calm overnight and in the moist low level airmass underneath the high pressure ridge aloft, this will support another night with areas of dense fog potential over inland areas with some patchy/areas of fog closer to the coast. High pressure ridge remains over Wrn Atlc with warm southerly flow over the area. Near record warmth expected with highs well into the lower/middle 80s inland and will challenge daily record highs again. Cooler SE Flow at the coast will have the beaches top out in the upper 70s there.
415 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Very Spring like conditions across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures running unseasonably warm, topping out near 80/in the lower 80s at most locations away from the immediate coast. South winds will increase and become gusty Saturday as an upper trof currently west of the Four Corners translates eastward and sends a cold front into the ARKLATEX region. Much cooler (though still technically above normal) temperatures are expected in the post-frontal airmass SAT night through MON night, with south winds and warmer temperatures returning TUE until another frontal passage on THU. The combination of daytime heating and increasing and gusty south winds ahead of an approaching cold front is expected to erode the fog by midday Saturday.
725 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show the Florida peninsula continues to reside under unseasonably strong mid/upper level ridging. The forecast through the weekend does not change much as this ridge holds firm.
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s across Northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River east of the front while locations across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel are in the lower to mid 50s. Chances for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will then shift north of the warm front and will likely continue to impact areas of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee.
417 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 An impressive upper level low pressure rotating across Utah and moving into Wyoming this afternoon. There will be a developing mid level warm front near the Missouri River from 9-12z but still in the early stages so not expecting any snowfall before 12z.
For Cheyenne and the rest of the lower elevations of southeast Wyoming, we will again be on the edge of all of this and while there is a good chance of a little snowfall, amounts will likely be less than 2 inches. Winds should kick up behind the trough early Saturday. Saturday's wind will be driven by the low level gradient and subsidence behind tonight's trough and looks marginal for the wind prone spots and the east slopes out to about Cheyenne.
Surface winds will come around to the west late tonight and shunt the low clouds and fog eastward, probably clearing the easternmost terminal, KMAF, by 24/11Z. /issued 246 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ An upper level trough is over the western conus with southwest flow over the CWA. The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the central conus on Saturday with the base of the trough moving over the CWA. Higher winds from the base of the trough will mix down toward the surface resulting in high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Temperatures will be a little bit cooler across much of the area on Saturday as a Pacific front moves into the region accompanied by westerly winds.
955 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 At 3 PM, the low pressure system that brought a wintry mix to the area was located over Lake Superior. Temperatures will fall into the teens where it snowed last night and be in the lower and mid 20s elsewhere. This will result in the precipitation being mainly in the form of rain and maybe a brief period of freezing rain at the onset during the afternoon and as the precipitation ends on Saturday night. The GFS has also trended this way too, but it is still much cooler than the NAM. Considering the tilt of this system, still thinking that going warmer in these areas is the best way to go.
1043 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region overnight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
A Pacific cold front will move through the area in the morning from west to east, reaching KABI and KSJT around 12Z to 14Z, then BBD and JCT areas by 17Z-19Z. /issued 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ (Tonight and Saturday) Cool and moist air mass has remained locked in place today, with widespread fog and drizzle helping keep temperatures to around 40 degrees across the I-20 corridor to the lower 50s farther southwest. Next wave set to generate showers and storms late tonight into Saturday morning, ahead of a pacific cold front sliding into the area. Abundant sunshine and downslope west winds will lead to much warmer conditions, reaching near the 70 degree mark for most areas.
This slow rise in the snow levels will affect the ability for snow to accumulate Saturday morning at the lowest elevations.
A cold front remains nearly stationary just west of the Mississippi river this afternoon in a broad southwest upper level flow pattern. Meanwhile, deep layer ridging across the southeast continues to keep much of the region dry with above normal temps. As a result, the highest rain chances will remain across southeast Mississippi and west of I-65 in Alabama through tomorrow. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s inland to mid and upper 60s near the coast.
Those in the central to east will have a chance at drizzle to freezing drizzle tonight with the front. Models were split on whether the sounding would fall all below the freezing line or just warmer than it. The mid-level longwave trough is currently over the Great Basin region and will push east to pass near the area on Saturday. This will bring a cold front to the area with gusty winds.
427 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 A large upper trough stretches across the central and western CONUS, with southwest flow over the CWA. At the surface, high pressure sits over SD. Snow will begin spreading across the area tonight as the initial wave associated with the upper trough crosses the northern plains.
A series of upper lows and troughs will move onto the Pacific northwest coast, then dig southeast into the four corners area during the next several days, and this is where the bulk of any precipitation will be situated.
845 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
An upper level trough axis is currently centered over the Great Basin and will eject onto the central Plains on Saturday afternoon. As the upper level trough moves across the Rockies tonight, it will draw a good amount of this low level moisture onto the caprock. A Pacific cold front will race through the area on Saturday morning quickly scouring out the low level moisture. Extreme subsidence behind the cold front will bring very dry air down to the surface along with the stronger winds aloft.
Main push of precip for all areas still appears to be more Sat night as strong upper trough finally ejects out of the SW states. With regards to mixed precipitation late tonight into Saturday morning soundings would suggest at least a brief window for rain/snow mix vs earlier concerns of freezing rain along and north of US 6.
High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and moist air into region through Saturday.
/issued 415 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ Very Spring like conditions across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures running unseasonably warm, topping out near 80/in the lower 80s at most locations away from the immediate coast. South winds will increase and become gusty Saturday as an upper trof currently west of the Four Corners translates eastward and sends a cold front into the ARKLATEX region. Much cooler (though still technically above normal) temperatures are expected in the post-frontal airmass SAT night through MON night, with south winds and warmer temperatures returning TUE until another frontal passage on THU. The combination of daytime heating and increasing and gusty south winds ahead of an approaching cold front is expected to erode the fog by midday Saturday.
Surface analysis shows the cold front over SE Utah and very evident uplift enhanced by the jet above the frontal boundary. The 700 mb and 500 mb troughs will move across the area tonight thus the flow aloft will shift to the northwest and cause some enhanced orographic snow on favored slopes. The next significant and fast-moving trough within the northwest flow will move across eastern UT and western CO Saturday night.
515 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 At 3 PM, the low pressure system that brought a wintry mix to the area was located over Lake Superior. Temperatures will fall into the teens where it snowed last night and be in the lower and mid 20s elsewhere. This will result in the precipitation being mainly in the form of rain and maybe a brief period of freezing rain at the onset during the afternoon and as the precipitation ends on Saturday night. The GFS has also trended this way too, but it is still much cooler than the NAM. Considering the tilt of this system, still thinking that going warmer in these areas is the best way to go.
610 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, a back door cold front pushed southwest across the terminal sites today. Some patchy fog or freezing fog is possible later tonight, with KGUY the most likely TAF location to. Once low clouds and any patchy fog or freezing fog burn off Saturday morning, a Pacific cold front will move thru the region with gusty northwest winds in its wake. Those in the central to east will have a chance at drizzle to freezing drizzle tonight with the front. Models were split on whether the sounding would fall all below the freezing line or just warmer than it. The mid-level longwave trough is currently over the Great Basin region and will push east to pass near the area on Saturday. This will bring a cold front to the area with gusty winds.
Overall, the winds will moderate on Saturday as high pressure starts to settle southward across the Florida peninsula. On this date in 1978, the low temperature in Key West dipped to 48 degrees.
Gilchrist Previous discussion: An upper level ridge axis crosses the Divide today to begin to nudge the stationary boundary east. The resulting height increase will result in warmer temperatures for today and Tuesday. Since the cold front moves through Northeast Montana prior to peak heating, the rain showers and thunderstorms are not expect to become severe, at least until they move into North Dakota in late afternoon.
However, some dry air was evident in the lowest 10,000 feet. Analysis of 24-hour geopotential height trends indicated height falls owing to the erosion of the large, western North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. Lower-tropospheric wind speeds are just now responding to a slightly weaker southeasterly gradient flow along the southwestern flank of the anticyclone.
/issued 330 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the Florida region this morning with broad trough gradually digging south over the central portion of the CONUS. Short range models show trough deepening southward today weakening high pressure across South FL and pushing associated cold front southeast into the FL panhandle. As high pressure weakens, southeast flow remains moderate today remaining around 10 to 15 mph.
855 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Cooler, but still remaining close to average into the weekend. Short wave trof will be moving across our Nrn Mtn zones this afternoon with instability forecast over the Trinity Alps/Siskiyous, just N of our CWA where isolated convection is expected. Less instability forecast on Tue even though weak troffing persists over the region. Break down of the ridge over the W Coast allows for a cooler air mass over our CWA.
1035 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Another, albeit deeper trough is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Cold troughing will persist through Tuesday but changes are projected to ensue thereafter with moderating temperatures as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging across Western Canada.
IFR and even LIFR Cigs are noted in portions of southwest KS and northeast NM, but the left over mid/high clouds and light westerly winds in the Panhandles seem to be keeping the low clouds at bay. However, another round of showers and tstms is fcst to develop over the higher terrain of sern CO and ern NM this afternoon, then spread southeast into the OK and TX Panhandles late this afternoon and evening before diminishing late tonight.
Onshore wind flow today will lead to cooler conditions through Tuesday.
605 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Northwesterly flow aloft continues with high pressure building into the center of the country. The trough aloft over the eastern half of the country deepens briefly before moving off to the east.
/issued 446 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ Recent water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a vort max moving over the western Great Lakes, embedded within a deeper trough that covers much of the eastern CONUS.
915 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Cooler, but still remaining close to average into the weekend. Short wave trof will be moving across our Nrn Mtn zones this afternoon with instability forecast over the Trinity Alps/Siskiyous, just N of our CWA where isolated convection is expected. Less instability forecast on Tue even though weak troffing persists over the region. Break down of the ridge over the W Coast allows for a cooler air mass over our CWA.
1049 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will linger just offshore through Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft continues with high pressure building into the center of the country. The trough aloft over the eastern half of the country deepens briefly before moving off to the east.
1058 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Tuesday afternoon will be dry with highs again in the lower to mid 70s.
Believe western north Texas will have the highest chances for rainfall this afternoon where moisture is deeper (precipitable water values 1. Hard to tie showers over southern Oklahoma to anything other than lingering mid-level moist layer, with activity over southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma an extension of passing wave/speed max moving around Great Lakes upper low.
1058 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 High pressure crosses this evening. A cold front crosses Tuesday morning.
758 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday.
Upper low is moving into northern California and will continue to move northeast across the region later this afternoon and evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and continue through the evening as the low moves through.
940 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 High pressure over the area bringing clear skies however nw flow aloft over far northeast is brining some clouds down over Lake of the Woods/Roseau/Beltrami county region so have increased sky accordingly. Minimal weather impacts today as a cool Canadian high pressure brings light winds and a dry airmass to the northern plains. Breezy south winds will develop Tuesday with boundary layer responding to broad area of low pressure across the western Dakotas. These south winds will bring a warmer airmass to the area and combined with full solar highs will be in the 80s across portions of eastern ND and upper 70s elsewhere.
1030 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west. An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. A long awaited cold front is situated northeast to southwest from just south of Wilmington to just north of Kingstree South Carolina. I opted for the slightly warmer MET numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s.
An upper level trough will move through the area over the weekend bringing a slight chance of showers.
520 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper analysis shows a large ridge over the western CONUS, with a 90 kt jet over the northern plains in northwest flow. Another warm and dry day is expected, as the upper ridge shifts over the Rockies. Tuesday will be hot, with highs around 90, as the thermal ridge shifts over the area. The upper ridge will break down Tuesday as a wave pushes into the region, and convection will initiate across western SD during the afternoon. The trough will quickly push into the eastern Dakotas, and most of the activity will also shift east into central SD by early evening. However, some additional storms will possible across western SD with the cold front later Tuesday evening.
At mid morning, it was another remarkably pleasant summer day with low humidity and temperatures mainly in the lower 70s. A weak upper wave, coupled with a weak surface cold front, was dropping across the area.
Morning soundings show somewhat cooler air has moved into place as upper trough to the north has inched just a bit closer. This is similar to what happened yesterday but expect somewhat higher coverage due to cooler temps aloft.
Minimal weather impacts today as a cool Canadian high pressure brings light winds and a dry airmass to the northern plains. Breezy south winds will develop Tuesday with boundary layer responding to broad area of low pressure across the western Dakotas. These south winds will bring a warmer airmass to the area and combined with full solar highs will be in the 80s across portions of eastern ND and upper 70s elsewhere.
1035 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 High pressure will build west of the area through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
As a result sunshine will increase and temps, which are mainly in the lower 70s now, will pop back up into the 80 to 85 degree range. /issued 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ A weak cold front is moving across the Midsouth. Temperatures this morning will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s. Latest guidance continues to trend warmer after midweek.
Drier air across the region with dewpts in the lower to mid 60s north of I-10 with lower 70s south of I-10 to the coast. /issued 446 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ Recent water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a vort max moving over the western Great Lakes, embedded within a deeper trough that covers much of the eastern CONUS.
942 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today, and it will remain cooler than normal.
A broad longer wave length trough continued be centered across the east central conus. The longer wave length upper trough will shift slightly to the east later tonight. The H5 trough across central SD will dig southeast across eastern NE into extreme northeast KS and central MO by 00Z TUE. The ascent ahead of the H5 trough combined with weak isentropic lift at 305K theta surface will provide the chance for isolated to scattered showers through the day. Tonight, the H5 trough over western MO will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley. As the ascent ahead of the H5 trough moves southeast across northern AR and southern MO. On Tuesday a mid level trough will track over the northern and central Rockies aiding in the develop of storms along the front range and high plains in the afternoon.
As we go through the day, expect to see the low and mid cloud cover scatter out with thin cirrus continuing to overspread the region. /issued 305 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ Tight upper ridge ovhd, as seen by isold showers wrapping around center to the south and west of the cwa, and mid lvl cloud decks movg eastward across se OK and central AR around topside of ridge.
734 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Another, albeit deeper trough is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Cold troughing will persist through Tuesday but changes are projected to ensue thereafter with moderating temperatures as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging across Western Canada.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 61 82 59 / 0 10 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 59 79 57 / 0 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 81 57 / 0 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 54 76 52 / 0 10 30 0.
511 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Quiet weather continues today as a stable airmass remains in place underneath ridging aloft. Temps will be a bit warmer than yesterday and winds should be generally light. At the surface, a deepening lee trough will take shape over our panhandle counties on Tuesday in response to height falls aloft. Pacific cold front will pass across the area Tuesday evening and breezy to windy conditions may last into the evening hours immediately behind the front as the surface gradients remain tight.
1045 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the US this morning, with a couple of weak disturbances moving around this trough. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for today, with temperatures running a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. As we go through the day, expect to see the low and mid cloud cover scatter out with thin cirrus continuing to overspread the region.
The low thunderstorm chances this afternoon near the Kansas and Missouri borders continue to look appropriate given the instability mesoanalysis and output from the HRRR. Warmer and more humid air will make a return as the week progresses.
High pressure aloft will shift east today. A weak upper trough will cross the region tonight and Tuesday.