Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The combination of cloudy skies and elevated winds precludes fog formation overnight into the pre-dawn hours with forecast low temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than this morning (i. High temperatures climb into the low 80s areawide on Thursday under a mix of sun and fair-weather cumulus clouds.
In its wake, upper level ridging amplifies over the area and our favorite big bubble no trouble ridge sets up shop for a little while. Forecast highs will be in the lower to middle 80's for most locations, in favor of the Euro/GFS MOS.
(Today) The main forecast concern in the short term is shower and thunderstorm development mainly this morning in response to continued low level warm advection above the warm front stretched across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
120 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High high pressure will shift offshore overnight.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ North and Central Texas will remain immersed in a strong warm/moist air advection regime for the next few days in advance of the next upper trough, which was still located off the West Coast at present. Once again we may approach the lower end of wind advisory criteria at times today, but conditions remain too marginal to add any new headlines at this time. As the longwave trough centered over the Western U.
1138 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Clouds are beginning to push into the western portions of the CWA ahead of a weak cold front. Much warmer temperatures are advecting southwest to northeast due to west- southwest BL flow and some spot in our southwest are already in the lower 50s. SW aloft begins to build ahead of the larger low pressure system by Thursday night, and an initial wave may support increasing perception chances by Friday morning. Potential for winter impacts with this system are low, whereas potential for convection is on the higher side, and could produce impacts such as marginal severe hail in some stronger thunderstorms. A SW will move through the area ahead of the low.
302 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High high pressure will shift offshore overnight.
347 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure building over the southeastern portion of the country will bring warming conditions to the forecast area through the short term.
However, southerly flow straight from the Gulf of Mexico and abundant sunshine brings much warmer weather into the area over the weekend.
Large high pressure off the US east coast will produce another windy day with East flow 15-22 mph with frequent gusts around 30 mph. Very mild temps this morning esp along the coast holding in the lower 70s. Persistent onshore flow tonight will keep min temps very mild along the coast, likely holding in the lower 70s, with mid 60s interior.
432 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure remains in place just offshore through early Friday morning. A backdoor cold front moves into at least the coastal portions of the forecast area later Friday into the weekend.
1154 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will cross the region Thursday, then exit to the east Friday.
1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail during the overnight hours, though it will largely depend upon placement of warm frontal boundary and convection associated with it. Tonight Through Friday Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were along and east of a line from Arkadelphia northward to Batesville in association with a weak low pressure system exiting AR to the east. Another weak low pressure system will move across northern AR this evening bringing another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to mainly the north half of the state overnight into early Thursday morning. Thereafter, strong high pressure will begin to build aloft over the state and a warm front will move northward bringing a noticeable drying and warming trend.
We are currently seeing some gusty winds of 20-30 mph in some areas, which are expected to continue through the morning until the trough passage occurs around midday, after which time the gusts should end.
320 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move northeast across the northern Mid-Atlantic today.
For the next few days, mid to upper ridging continues to be forecast to increase over the southeast, with a nearly stacked orientation by late Friday into the weekend.
Drier and and much warmer air will build into the area for the weekend.
Today Through Friday Night Early this morning, warm frontal boundary was located roughly from northwest Arkansas across the Ozarks and into the northeast portion of the state. Interaction of the boundary, low level jet, and disturbances moving around the periphery of a mid-level ridge has sustained convection over northeastern portions of the forecast area this morning. This should continue into the morning hours but should wane by mid-day as upper ridging strengthens over the western Gulf of Mexico and pushes any remnant surface boundaries north and out of the region. With the exception of the first half of today, not really expecting any significant precipitation chances, as the aforementioned upper ridging will act to cap things.
456 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will take up residence off the East coast today, giving us a warming trend through the rest of the week.
High pressure returns for the Friday into the weekend, bringing much warmer conditions.
1029 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Temperatures this afternoon are more seasonal behind yesterday's cold front. A transitory ridge will move in this evening as a strong trough digs across the West Coast. Accordingly, highs will peak around 15 degrees warmer than normal across these areas. While snow accumulations across the west will remain light through Thursday afternoon, snow will become steadier and heavier beginning Thursday night as the trough inches closer. By Friday morning, the Pacific trough will be barreling through the western US, with deeper southwest flow out ahead of it pulling moisture northward across the state. With temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most of the lower elevations, and leading edge instability, the threat for thunderstorms continues to increase Friday afternoon. The center of the trough will be deepening as it passes across WY Friday night.
This is due an upper level ridge that begins to build into the area later today.
Upper level ridging building in from the west will become more amplified with the development of a closed upper level High over Louisiana overnight Thursday into Friday. Current long range guidance suggests this High will remain more or less in place, becoming elongated to the north and east, serving to keep the heat dome in place for the southeastern CONUS through the end of the workweek. Under the aforementioned heat dome, high temperatures this afternoon will soar into the 80s areawide, ranging from the lower 80s in southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas to the upper 80s in deep east Texas and northwest Louisiana.
Will go with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the NW through 7 AM and then reduce to just isolated showers with the cooler temperatures during the overnight period. By the afternoon, activity should be east of the area and then a dry forecast for the rest of the period as high pressure begins to elongate and build back over the area.
This activity is expected to keep moving across the cwa through the morning hours before activity ends by afternoon as the main upper trough axis lifts off to the northeast. Much warmer temperatures are anticipated over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds across the southeastern CONUS per 00Z model suite. Models are not quite as strong with the upper ridge as previous runs, and therefore show cooler highs over the weekend than previous forecasts.
Stronger upper ridging is progged for Friday and begins a period of even higher abnormally warm temps. Most areas will be in the low to mid 80s under pleasant mostly clear conditions. Baker A summer-like weekend is in store with highs and lows running 5-10 degrees (and in some locales, up to 15 degrees) above average thanks to a sunny to mostly sunny sky and subsidence beneath an upper-level ridge. At the surface, high pressure centered on the Eastern Seaboard will promote easterly to southeasterly winds and advection of Atlantic moisture across the CWA, the latter of which will manifest as diurnally-driven Cu each day.
High pressure in the mid levels will be split with ridging to the southwest and to the northeast of S TX and a weak mid level trough draped across S TX. Despite the weak trough, the lack of moisture will preclude and precipitation chances. Given the drier airmass, expect slightly warmer highs Friday afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
352 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will exit east the region today, followed by an occluded front tonight. A secondary cold front and upper trough will cross the region Friday.
A trough swinging through this afternoon is embedding the area in positive vorticity advection, firing up precipitation along the trough axis. By afternoon, the trough will sweep through, and upper level support will decay as stratiform precipitation transitions to showers. As the high builds in this evening and flow veers westerly, shower activity will decay and skies will become clear overnight. Friday will feature calm winds and building cloud cover ahead of an encroaching warm front.
609 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will take up residence off the East coast today, giving us a warming trend through the rest of the week.
High pressure building over the southeastern portion of the country will bring warming conditions to the forecast area through the short term.
A storm system will impact the area Thursday and Friday, bringing widespread valley rain and mountain snow along with cooler than normal temperatures. Satellite imagery shows a large upper level low spinning over the northeast Pacific that is poised to bring a period of winter-like weather to the central California interior over the next 36 hours. This band will begin to affect the district by sunrise with light rain moving into Merced and Mariposa Counties and snow over the high Sierra around Yosemite NP.
1056 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A weakening frontal system approaches the region today, with a warm frontal passage this evening, followed by a cold frontal passage toward daybreak Friday.
These showers will increase today as an upper low moves overhead. This low will southeastward and push inland south of the area overnight. On Friday, models continue to show a weak upper level disturbance moving down the backside of the upper trough and into the area. North winds, albeit fairly weak, should return Friday into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
639 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move northeast across the northern Mid-Atlantic today.
545 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A weakening frontal system approaches the region today, with a cold front moving across the area late tonight.
Radar shows a few light shower/snow showers are quickly moving through the CWA this morning along a trough associated with the upper level system over central Ontario that brought a rain/snow mix yesterday. High pressure will then build in bringing below normal temperatures for much of the region. As such, by late Friday elevated showers will develop along and north of the warm front. As the cyclone continues to evolves waa will continue to bring a surge of moisture with 60 degree dew points over the southern half of the CWA along with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The Oak Ridge weather station in the hills of coastal Sonoma county is 1. 27 inches at Bend Lomond (one of the higher totals noted so far). Showers will rapidly end by midday Friday with leftover puffy cumulus clouds with seasonably cool daytime highs in the lower 60s. High pressure builds this weekend setting up ideal springtime weather.
912 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 It will be rinse and repeat today with plenty of sunshine and breezy easterly winds as high pressure and ridging remains over the area.
Showers will taper off Friday as high pressure builds in. This will bring warmer temperatures and mainly dry weather for the weekend and through midweek.
These showers will increase today as an upper low moves overhead. This low will southeastward and push inland south of the area overnight. On Friday, models continue to show a weak upper level disturbance moving down the backside of the upper trough and into the area. Low pressure offshore will cause showers to continue to develop over the area today and tonight, peaking this afternoon, then diminishing in coverage overnight. The 12z KMFR sounding this morning is showing a free-air freezing level of around 4200 feet. North winds, albeit fairly weak, should return Friday into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
934 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move northeast across the northern Mid-Atlantic today.
526 AM MDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows mild upper trough near the Great Lakes region, with ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure sits over southern Manitoba, with an associated frontal boundary stretching from eastern ND down through west central SD. Deterministics are becoming more consistent with showing the higher end QPF amounts of 2 to 2.
653 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will exit east the region today, followed by an occluded front tonight. A secondary cold front and upper trough will cross the region Friday.
1018 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will take up residence off the East coast today, giving us a warming trend through the rest of the week.
857 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A weakening frontal system approaches the region today, with a cold front moving across the area late tonight.
537 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 An upper level trough over the Upper Great Lakes and weak cold extending south into the Ohio Valley will move east today and bring a several hour period of showers across Central PA.
A weakening cold frontal boundary will be approaching middle TN this morning.
By 12z Sat, the trough is in the Rockies and 12z Sun is in the upper Mississippi Valley. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough and closed low over the Red River Valley of the North 12z Sun which heads northeast with more energy dropping southward to keep a trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. This trough remains over the area through Tue before moving to the lower Great Lakes 12z Wed. The pressure gradient increases Friday evening as a low pressure system develops over the High Plains and the high pressure over the lake shifts east.
550 AM MDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Breezy conditions are expected to develop today as high pressure moves into the northern plains.
It is a cloudier and warmer morning compared to this time, yesterday thanks to a greater low-level moisture presence ushered in by long fetches of prevailing easterly maritime flow. The highest winds and seas will occur in the evening and overnight hours as easterly wind surges around 15 to 20 knots, move in. This pattern will repeat daily until early next weak when a weakening cold front moves into the region. A short wave trough will pass to the north leading to high pressure building over the region. This will bring a mix of sun and clouds today, limiting high temperature growth to the low to mid 80s.
452 AM PDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A storm system will impact the area today and Friday, bringing valley rain, mountain snow, gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Satellite imagery shows a large upper level low spinning over the northeast Pacific that is poised to bring a period of winter-like weather to the central California interior over the next 36 hours. This band will begin to affect the district by sunrise with light rain moving into Merced and Mariposa Counties and snow over the high Sierra around Yosemite NP.
308 AM MDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows mild upper trough near the Great Lakes region, with ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure sits over southern Manitoba, with an associated frontal boundary stretching from eastern ND down through west central SD. Deterministics are becoming more consistent with showing the higher end QPF amounts of 2 to 2.
511 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 An extensive area of high pressure is currently parked over the northeastern United States, and the Florida Keys are situated along the southwestern periphery. Drier air is being driven into our area from higher latitudes by the large anticyclone, which has brought dewpoint temperatures down into the upper 60s. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the weekend.
640 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 (Today) The main forecast concern in the short term is shower and thunderstorm development mainly this morning in response to continued low level warm advection above the warm front stretched across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
By 12z Sat, the trough is in the Rockies and 12z Sun is in the upper Mississippi Valley. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough and closed low over the Red River Valley of the North 12z Sun which heads northeast with more energy dropping southward to keep a trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. This trough remains over the area through Tue before moving to the lower Great Lakes 12z Wed. After a cold frontal passage, winds are shifting to the southwest currently and then to the west later tonight. The pressure gradient increases Friday evening as a low pressure system develops over the High Plains and the high pressure over the lake shifts east.
The trough continues to deepen over the region this morning with an isolated thunderstorm already occurred north of Redding. By Friday morning the central part of the trough moves over Nevada with the back end of the trough still over the region. This system continues to look like a very good late season precipitation event for the region with at least 1 to 2 feet of snow over the higher elevations, a half inch to an inch and a half of rain in the valley and 1 to 3 plus inches for the foothills and mountains.
1001 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 An upper level trough over the Upper Great Lakes and weak cold extending south into the Ohio Valley will move east today and bring a several hour period of showers across Central PA.
1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 (The rest of today ) Widely scattered convection continues to gradually diminish late this morning as the warm front lifts slowly north through northeast OK/northwest AR.
111 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Ridging will become more stacked through the atmosphere tonight across the southeast U. The stacked high/ridge will shift to the southeast Coastal areas, allowing southeast flow to persist. These trajectories will continue to be comfortably dry with dew points staying in the lower to middle 50s.
Some lingering cloud cover over the Eastern Upper will persist through late afternoon due to the effects of the low pressure centered over James Bay. But, most of the forecast area is under strengthening subsidence as high pressure overspreads much of the Great Lakes Region tonight. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s. Friday, expect some sunshine early, but clouds will quickly move in from the southwest by the afternoon as a warm front approaches with a Plains low. This will push daytime highs into the mid to upper 40s north of the bridge with low to mid 50s across Lower Michigan.
1102 AM PDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A trough of low pressure will bring scattered showers to the Inland Northwest today.
The quasi-stationary cold front, that has brought the area stratus and light rain today, will begin pushing north as a warm front.
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will become established off the East coast giving our region a warming trend through the weekend.
An upper level low is off the coast and showers will move into Western Washington at times through this evening. The upper low weakens and shifts into California then moves inland on Friday.
S/W ridge currently over the region will get forced east as energy comes off the Pacific and into the southwest CONUS. This is where the cap is expected to be the weakest due to warmer temps and more LLM. Most of the CAM solutions suggest isolated convection firing over western SD/NE and then spreading northeast overnight Friday within the low to mid level WAA regime (LLJ). That said the higher end deep layer shear is confined to the western part of the state Friday night.
424 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Only a slight rain chance will accompany a Friday night warm front. Building high pressure will ensure dry weather and diminishing clouds tonight. Friday will feature calm winds and building cloud cover ahead of an encroaching warm front.
313 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 The trough over the Great Lakes is pulling off to the east while a second, deeper trough is taking shape over the West Coast.
A deeper, longwave trough is setting up in the Western CONUS and bringing several consecutive days of severe weather to the Great Plains. However, further downstream the phase shift of the jet stream means high pressure near the surface with upper-level ridging aloft for the southeast. Winds will be generally out of the southeast for several days advecting warm, moist air off the oceans into the area, with mostly clear skies allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s by tomorrow with temperatures overnight falling to near saturation with dewpoints and overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
321 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A weakening frontal system will send a warm front through the area this evening, followed by a cold frontal passage toward daybreak Friday. High pressure will then build in from the west Friday into Friday night, then gradually weakens over the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Modest ridging aloft will give way to a sharp, progressive short wave trough digging into the Great Basin on Friday. Lee low pressure will deepen and a northern Plains storm system will develop late Friday. Thus, the pressure gradient between Gulf high pressure and Plains lower pressure will remain tight, and breezy, gusty southeast winds will continue through the short term.
High pressure will settle into the region tonight and bring even warmer temperatures tomorrow through the weekend.
A low pressure system is still on track to develop and strengthen over Yellowstone National Park on Friday. This low will cause wrap around precipitation into Lemhi county and southwest Montana.
Low level ridging will meanwhile continue to stretch from the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard southwest toward the north central Gulf Coast region through Friday. The ridging aloft combined with the increasing low level moisture will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal through the near term period. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and in the low to mid closer to the coast. Highs Friday will be quite warm, in the mid 80s across most of the area, but in the lower 80s and some upper 70s near and along the coast.
Under clear skies, we will effectively radiate and lows will dip into the lower 60s F and upper 50s F. For Friday, the ridge maintains control and we should see another fair and warm day with highs again in the middle 80s F. /86/ Friday night through Thursday: Come Friday night an amplified trough/ridge pattern will be over the CONUS with the upper level trough over the western CONUS and the ridge over the southeast. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend along with a slow increase in moisture.
(The rest of today ) Widely scattered convection continues to gradually diminish late this morning as the warm front lifts slowly north through northeast OK/northwest AR.
Southerly flow will continue to maintain warmer than normal maximum temperatures ranging in the mid-to-upper 80s.
325 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 A cold front moves into the area tonight. This front will push to our south Friday and Friday night as high pressure noses down into the Mid Atlantic from the north.