Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low level warm advection and saturation throughout the column could also lead to some drizzle across Central KS where the nose of the warm advection will be focused, but think most of the QPF amounts today will be very light. Expect dry and more seasonal type temps for the middle of the week, as the high pressure area in the northern plains settles across the region. As this slightly cooler air drops south, could see some patchy frost for most of Central KS for Wed/Thu morning as low temps drop into the lower 30s for Central KS. Not expecting any precip as this wave retrogrades as most of the low level moisture will remain cut off to the south of the area.
As the front advances on Monday, the low level moisture increases further east into the I29 corridor, Iowa, and Minnesota. For Monday, highs will be slightly cooler than the last few days, especially across our eastern half where greatest cloud cover and shower chances are expected. Should set up a radiative cooling night where gradient drops off near/west of the James valley, and have shaded lows toward cooler guidance components within the blend. While it certainly will be cooler, the airmass remains mild enough for readings to remain above normal. Lingering weak gradient across parts of southwest MN and northwest IA/northeast NE will set up a potential for thus far rare sub-freezing temps.
328 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the region through Election Day.
Easterly winds will steadily accelerate through the morning as the Keys and surrounding waters sit on the southern periphery of an expansive high pressure cell, currently centered east of the Great Lakes.
242 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A building ridge of high pressure over the eastern continental United States will bring seasonally warm and dry conditions to the North Country through Tuesday, with abundant sunshine expected.
A cold front driven by a northern stream system will also move through the region Monday night into Tuesday helping to put an end to the showers.
336 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure builds in from the north through Monday.
although will have to overcome quite a bit a dry air in the lower 16kft. Upper ridge will fold over during the middle of the week, but will become more amplified over the western U.
1253 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be situated east of the region with southerly flow developing for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Clear skies will persist through the overnight hours as high pressure slides slowly eastward. That being said, some of the outlying and protected area could once again dip down into the mid to possibly lower 30s, especially across our east which will be closer to the center of the high. Southerly flow will develop on Monday allowing for slightly warmer temperatures. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Short wave ridging will translate across the region to start the period.
Tonight Through Monday High pressure aloft will dominate the weather tonight and Monday.
352 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Cooler temperatures with breezy northwest winds are expected today behind the departing cold front.
and now some of the regional guidance as to the evolution of troughing along the eastern seaboard and its influence on our region has not completely resolved itself as of yet. The GFS has been forecasting a deeper trough for several days now. which ends up supporting a stronger and more eastward migration of low pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico. This is in contrast to less amplified troughing supported by the ECMWF/GEM/NAM.
Another upper level low will move south into the area Monday and generate a few rain and high terrain snow showers for the Sangre de Cristos.
254 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Surface and upper ridge will move east today bringing in weak southerly flow from gulf region that will try and transport some moisture northward ahead of strong positive tilted short wave out in the plains approaching from the west. High pressure builds in behind frontal passage with off continent flow continuing remainder of work week into weekend.
Subsidence has continued settling in the evening behind the exiting upper trough, but another round of stratus is still in store for the eastern terminals. /issued 140 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ The upper low that brought rain to the area yesterday will move east today and tonight but a secondary part of the trough will dig back to the SW. Not expecting much cooling initially but a stronger surge of cooler air will push down into the area Monday night.
341 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry weather through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging also continues today, but will begin to weaken and flatten out later today ahead of an upper level trough. With deep layer ridging in place, highs today will remain above average, around 5 degrees above normal at TLH.
Slow movement/erosion of system continues to be affected by strong ridging to our east. Trough in the eastern Pacific has become more amplified from yesterday. Once again the models differ on how far south and west the low develops/moves and then eventually how fast/far north it kicks out. Trends from yesterday are to have Upper high stronger and the low to be further south and west.
258 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will begin to depart farther away to the east today, allowing increasing southerly lower level flow. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase as early as this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the Plains. Surface dewpoints will also climb into the lower 50s in western Illinois. The blanket of clouds will help keep low temps warmer than previous nights, with temps bottoming out in the lower 50s for areas west of I-55, and in the upper 40s closer to the Indiana border. Well defined upper wave currently over southern Saskatchewan will dig as it crosses the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, while broad upper low over Kansas helps to draw Gulf moisture northward today.
413 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be situated east of the region with southerly flow developing for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Sharp mid level ridge to build into the region today. Highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s far south. Expect lows to range from the lower 40s far east to the upper 40s west, where clouds will be thickest. Associated weak surface cold front to push southeast through ILN/s fa late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening. On the warm side of the front, expect highs on Tuesday to range from the lower 60s northwest to around 70 southeast.
1235 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week.
1241 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure centered over the Lake Ontario will drift east and then south. This will allow a cold front to push across the forecast area late Tuesday. The large area of high pressure centered over Lake Ontario will drift to the Central Appalachians by daybreak. This will allow the next cold front to move across the forecast area Tuesday night.
230 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016 Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures can be expected today and tuesday as strong high pressure builds over the desert southwest.
1154 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build into the north country overnight and will remain over the region through Tuesday, with fair and dry weather expected.
Above average temperatures are anticipated as high pressure steadily builds in over the region.
320 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Upper trough moving into the High Plains this morning has kicked off an area of showers over central and eastern KS. After this initial band of showers moves through most activity will be rather spotty for the rest of the afternoon thanks to a lack of organized forcing within the upper trough axis. Better chances for rain will develop from southeast KS into central MO after dark as an upper jet develops ahead of the upper trough axis swinging through.
Farther north and east, VFR conditions prevail for the time being but expect lower cigs and showers also at the SHV/TXK terminals by mid to late morning as an upper trough shifts closer to the region.
The low level ridge center currently located due north of the region is expected to slide off to the east this evening. Deep layer ridging with low-level easterly flow will continue through Monday.
Clouds and a few showers may stick around across the eastern Permian Basin where cooler temperatures reside. A cold front will arrive early Tuesday morning with gusty northerly winds and much cooler conditions. Meanwhile, a ridge will build over the top of this system and keep it nearly stationary to our southwest for several days. Models have come into better agreement with the placement of the low, but differ in their amount of moisture and precip across our region.
Deeper moisture continues to gather for areas west of the Mississippi River, while a strong upper low moves off the New England coast. A northern stream short wave trof will dig southward on Tuesday and try to pull Gulf moisture northward.
/ISSUED / Clear skies dominate while we sit directly underneath the axis of a midlevel ridge. At the surface, we sit on the periphery of high pressure, continuing our general trend of light south to southeasterly flow. The story of the short term forecast will be dominated by the ridge, which should drift slowly westward. It would not be impossible to squeeze out a storm or two along the seabreeze today or tomorrow, but it's tough to justify much in the way of PoPs underneath a ridge of this strength.
/Issued 418 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ An upper level ridge over the south central U. Latest 02/00Z model and numerical guidance does show good low level theta-e advection streaming northeastward upstream of the trough axis which remains near stationary for the latter half of the work week over eastern OK/TX. As a result, this shows the most persistent and the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms across the western Panhandles. H500 wind flow remains light and variable as our region remains under the ridge of high pressure, so as thunderstorms do develop, they will be slow moving which will limit their coverage. A stalled out front over Kansas in- conjunction with an upper level low pressure impulse moving along the ridge will provide perhaps some more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level low pressure system was over northern MAN with a trough sweeping across the northern valley this morning. E-W upper level jet was on the south periphery of the upper low. Next upper trough was located off the Pacific Northwest coast and is expected to be a stronger system. Upper low will move across the area Thu with another upper jet on the south and east flanks.
703 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure centered over northern lower Michigan will provide favorable aviation conditions today through tonight. Deep upper level low over northern Saskatchewan early this morning tracking northeast in Hudson Bay today. A couple of weak upper level waves/filaments to track through today-Wednesday, but likely struggling to generate any activity, as 850-700 mb theta-e troughing seen holding into Wednesday morning. By the time the narrow moisture axis arrives later Wednesday, upper level ridging is seen building into the State, which will act to suppress activity, not to mention instability is very low to non-existent (per gfs).
A weak upper low south of Phoenix will drift northward over the next few days and this may add some synoptic forcing to our airmass.
Weak upper disturbances will drop southeast over the Ohio Valley the next several days, overtop a dome of high pressure over the southern Plains.
Wednesday morning may only see CIGs in San Antonio as the high pressure gets stronger. Otherwise, today will be hot and dry as the sub-tropical upper level ridge continues to build over the area. Highs today will top out in the middle 90s to 104 degrees with the higher temperatures across the Rio Grande Plains. The highest heat indices today will be across the southeastern CWA where the higher dewpoints are expected. Much of the same can be expected tomorrow with temperatures a degree or two warmer as the ridge continues to support subsidence across the region.
Currently, a large low pressure system was over northern Manitoba, with dry high pressure extending from Southern Saskatchewan to Montana and the western Dakotas. An upper level low was off the coast of Washington/British Columbia. Tonight the west coast upper low moves east along the international border, reaching Montana/Alberta by daybreak Wednesday.
/issued 357 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ Very little change to the forecast across West Central Texas, as hot and dry conditions persist under the upper level ridge of high pressure.
An unseasonably vigorous closed low is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning. We don't expect any precipitation from this system in our area, but a dry cold front will move through today and produce some changes in our weather.
Little change is expected over the next several days, with typical cool temperatures along the coast and slightly warmer than normal temperatures inland.
An upper ridge will build across the southern plains today while a downstream trough digs across the east coast. Highs today will climb into the low 90s in most spots. Lows tonight remain very muggy, in the low to mid 70s inland to near 80 along the coast.
Low and mid level southeast winds develop this afternoon with a well pronounced low and mid level theta-e ridge axis across western Nebraska, particularly over the northern panhandle. Warmest day in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front from northern Wyoming. Slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the southward advancing cold front, then clearing skies.
These thunderstorms will continue to push off into north central IA through the morning hours as the low level jet veers eastward. For the remainder of the day, surface ridging situated through the western Dakotas will begin to build into the area. This will result in a weak northeasterly to easterly flow and cooler temperatures overnight. With humidity not getting forced as far south today as expected at this time yesterday, should see decent moisture return for Wednesday ahead of slowly approaching cold front.
With extra cloud cover and precipitation expected, High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
This moisture rich area will have to be monitored later today as the HRRR keeps bringing a wave of convection off the higher terrain and east over the plains late this afternoon to arrive over the far northeastern corner this evening. Will keep the low 10 percent chance of a storm over this area late this afternoon into the evening. Mid level ridge stretched across Colorado with better moisture over the south and drier air over the north. On Wednesday the jet will be to the North of the state where a closed low will move west to east. The south will continue to be dominated by a ridge that will keep conditions mostly dry and warm. There will be scattered storms over the higher terrain as well as the Palmer Divide by Wednesday afternoon and evening with temperatures in the mid 90s.
1024 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2016 A weak boundary will drift southwestward across the region through today as high pressure builds in from the north.
Have kept a slight chance for storms in the late afternoon to early evening hours in far southeast NE/southwest IA as inverted trough/boundary slips southeastward, but confidence in evolution of convection later today is very low confidence, depending quite a bit on any outflow boundaries laid out by the morning convection (as we saw yesterday). Continued a dry forecast through Wednesday and Wednesday night, but confidence remains on the low side that some isolated pop-up shower couldn't happen at some point. Did keep some increased clouds, and also did lower max temps a bit to match, noting that GFS temps would be quite a bit warmer than current forecast.
516 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will keep temperatures near normal through mid week.
with weak low pressure over southeast MT. Current surface map shows weak high pressure across eastern Montana into northern South Dakota. With 30-40kt low level jet tonight, should see some gusty downslope winds across the northern Black Hills and north of the Pine Ridge. Upper low moves across Montana Wednesday, with cold front slipping into northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota.
/ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ A broad mid and upper level ridge will remain anchored across the Southern Plains (a pattern not unusual for August) for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
The mid to upper level ridge over east Texas will build southwestward into west-central Texas down to the Brush Country by Wednesday afternoon. But with upper level ridge building into the area.
An upper level low is over the area today and there will be an increasing chance of showers into the afternoon.
A little moisture will spread into northern Utah today with drier conditions returning Wednesday behind a cold front.
946 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure continued over Southeast Texas late this morning. /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ Clear skies dominate while we sit directly underneath the axis of a midlevel ridge. At the surface, we sit on the periphery of high pressure, continuing our general trend of light south to southeasterly flow. The story of the short term forecast will be dominated by the ridge, which should drift slowly westward. It would not be impossible to squeeze out a storm or two along the seabreeze today or tomorrow, but it's tough to justify much in the way of PoPs underneath a ridge of this strength.
High pressure will build across the region tonight. An upper level trof will cross the region today with generally partly sunny skies along with isolated showers. The upper level trof moves east early tonight, with surface/upper level ridging then building across the region overnight. High pressure over New England early Wednesday will drift to the southeast and is expected to be over the Gulf of Maine by the evening. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the high Wednesday afternoon in the north.
/issued 435 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will remain over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period.
A strong upper level trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pac NW will be the dominant weather feature through the short term portion of the forecast. This upper level trough will bring WAA into the Northern Plains later this afternoon through Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon, the upper level trough of low pressure currently over the Pac NW, will be over northern Montana with a strong surface cold front across the western Dakotas. The upper level trough and surface cold front will slide across the Dakotas Wednesday night with strong to severe storms possible.
For 12z aviation discussion below A surface cold front is situated across northwestern MN early this morning. Temperatures today will be fairly close to climatological normals, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
As an upper low currently coming onshore across the Pacific Northwest tracks along the US/Canada border, weak downstream ridging will give the stalled front a push northward tonight.
A very quiet period of weather next several days as a series of troughs move through California.
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Current surface map shows weak high pressure across eastern Montana into northern South Dakota. With 30-40kt low level jet tonight, should see some gusty downslope winds across the northern Black Hills and north of the Pine Ridge. Upper low moves across Montana Wednesday, with cold front slipping into northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota.
Today Through Wednesday Night A ridge of high pressure nudging into Arkansas from the Plains will be the main feature in the near term. Under the ridge, temperatures will be above average and there will be little chance of rain. The rain that is mentioned in the forecast will be around the periphery of the high, or mainly in northeast sections of the state.
1125 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Weak low pressure south of New England will gradually drift out to sea today as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
A cold front currently situated over northwest MN will move into northwest WI late this afternoon, then weaken as it pushes through the forecast area tonight and early Wednesday. Aside from a few early morning storms in east central WI, weak high pressure should bring a generally dry day on Wednesday.
616 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Upper-level ridge aloft to maintain VFR conditions across the region through the terminal forecast period. /issued 424 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ An upper level ridge remains firmly anchored over the Southern Plains, and this feature will continue to dominate our weather for the next seven days. Rain chances for today should be very low as the center of the ridge is basically overhead. Only a slight chance for very isolated showers and thunderstorms is expected for Wednesday as the center of the ridge retrogrades a bit into Central Texas.
High pressure will build across the region tonight. An upper level trof axis will move east of the state this afternoon. High pressure over New England early Wednesday will drift to the southeast and is expected to be over the Gulf of Maine by the evening. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the high Wednesday afternoon in the north.
1250 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure centered over northern lower Michigan will slowly drift east through taf period. Deep upper level low over northern Saskatchewan early this morning tracking northeast in Hudson Bay today. A couple of weak upper level waves/filaments to track through today-Wednesday, but likely struggling to generate any activity, as 850-700 mb theta-e troughing seen holding into Wednesday morning. By the time the narrow moisture axis arrives later Wednesday, upper level ridging is seen building into the State, which will act to suppress activity, not to mention instability is very low to non-existent (per gfs).
Hi-res models show a weak disturbance over the southeast plains will interact with the inverted trough from the tropical wave further south to enhanced more widespread showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the low 90s today with heat index values between 105 to 107.
Large upper level ridge of high pressure remained over the area and will provide for plenty of sun resulting in hot and humid conditions for the Four State Region. /issued 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ Upper-level ridge aloft to maintain VFR conditions across the region through the terminal forecast period. /issued 424 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/ An upper level ridge remains firmly anchored over the Southern Plains, and this feature will continue to dominate our weather for the next seven days. Rain chances for today should be very low as the center of the ridge is basically overhead. Only a slight chance for very isolated showers and thunderstorms is expected for Wednesday as the center of the ridge retrogrades a bit into Central Texas.
755 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Area of low clouds and fog continue to trail behind cold front and morning satellite imagery helps narrow down the actual areal extent. Cold front will settle along the southern fringes of the forecast area today. The front will be the most likely place for widely scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and then spread northward tonight as the front also returns north as a warm front. Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature on Wednesday. There will be low chances of thunderstorms in western areas near the surface lee trough with daytime heating.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with a vigorous tropical wave located south of the eastern tip of Cuba and Jamaica.