Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR CLOUDS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BUT THE RATE OF THE CLEARING PROVIDES THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT THE UNUSUAL COOL SPOTS IN THE LOWER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED. PASSING RIDGE AND FOLLOWUP RETURN FLOW WITH SOUTH WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY.
WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE DAYTIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN TSRAS PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND HELP DIMINISH THE RAIN CHANCES.
RETURN FLOW ENSUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.
OFFERING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT NE INTO CANADA WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. COOL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE MID/UPPER 50S SW.
1000 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A cooler than normal pattern continues for tonight into early Friday. Channeled vorticity moving across the Central/Northern Rockies at this time will amplify on the east side of the Rockies later tonight into early Friday, sharpening and phasing a trough across the eastern Plains/western Mississippi Valley Region.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND S/E MIDLANDS. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE SLOWER TIMING AND WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS AND MOIST AIR MASS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WAS LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY. OTHER THAN THAT THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
THROUGH TONIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING AND LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL SUSTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY AFTER 06Z AS THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SPREADS SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN ITS GRADUAL EXPANSION INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS. WITH EXPECTED MINS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH (-15 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z GRB SOUNDING) OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SUPPRESSED RIDGE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS GENERALLY QUIESCENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH TODAY. THE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG INTO MONTANA AND DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY NNE THROUGH THE NRN LAKE INTO ONTARIO WITH PLENTY OF COOL AIR/AMPLE MOISTURE AND (LARGELY) HEATING INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THEN BREEZY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND SREF BOTH HINT AT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.
1220 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MOIST CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REGION WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
1208 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AMID THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
LGT WINDS BECMG SOUTHERLY AT LEAST 5 KTS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF AREA.
802 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ATLC UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER/NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR BERMUDA.
1151 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST PASSED STATE COLLEGE WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND DEWPOINTS STARTING TO FADE AWAY. ATLC UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER/NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR BERMUDA.
Lee troughing and return flow from the south had resulted in some moisture return across far western Kansas. Lows tonight will be warmer than last night due to increasing south winds.
A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THE SURFACE TROF WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS/RECIRCULATED AIR KEEPS SOUTHEAST KS COOLER.
942 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND DEPART THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
720 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
THE HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURNS INTO FRIDAY AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH ALONG WARM FRONT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE COASTAL ZONES AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND DPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH NEAR 60 EXPECTED IN THE METRO AREA.
632 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA.
BECOMING COOLER NEAR THE LAKE VIA A LAKE BREEZE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI EARLY FRI AM WITH SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS BUT TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO REACH PRIMARILY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING EAST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING ENDING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
A TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS MOVING THE SFC COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE REGION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER APPALACHIANS LEAVING A SLOWLY MOVING/STALLED FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THIS COULD MEAN A SHORT WINDOW OF FOG FORMATION IF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OVER NW AL. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST, FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE MITIGATED. A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN NORTH ALABAMA WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MOSTLY NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRECHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS TOLEDO BEND. AS WELL AS THE WEAK SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT EXTENDING NNE FROM THE S TX UPPER LOW INTO E TX/SW AR. MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTS N OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT BY AFTERNOON.
1010 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AMID THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
Despite the cooler temperatures and somewhat drier air mass, isolated storms have already begun to develop over the Davis Mountains, with additional storms possible through this evening, mainly across the higher elevations of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than last night across the area, with near normal temperatures from the mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The break from the late summer heat is going to be short lived as the upper ridge begins to strengthen to the west, resulting in a quick rebound to above normal temperatures on Friday with highs in the middle to upper 90s across much of the area, with low 100s possible in the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys.
/ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AND THUS ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
THE BASE OF A VERY LARGE BUT BROAD CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. IT WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE WET PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE RIDGE PASSES NEAR THE AREA.
In doing so the return flow on the backside of the retreating high pressure will allow warmer air to spread back into the CWA for Friday, but still slightly below average.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND INCLUDED FWZ 310 AS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THIS AREA.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. COOLER. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
1006 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE APPALACHAINS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVER THE SATURATED GROUND MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND NRN MD.
1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
ADJUSTED FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
ALL IN ALL ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT POPS TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SWRN ZONES THEN TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH GIVEN SO MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY SFC FRONT/UPPER LOW CANNOT RULE OUT RE-DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE. /ISSUED 419 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER S/C TX WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS WELL AS THE WEAK SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT EXTENDING NNE FROM THE S TX UPPER LOW INTO E TX/SW AR. MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTS N OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT BY AFTERNOON. LGT WINDS BECMG SOUTHERLY AT LEAST 5 KTS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF AREA.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WARMER NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS FOR FRI NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW WARMER LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 60.
758 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE. THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE BUMPED DOWNWARD A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SAT AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING IS NOTED ALOFT WHILE 850-700MB THERMAL RIDGE/CAP MAY ALSO INHIBIT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS FCST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY 7PM SAT.
809 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80. DEEP LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH TO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG E-NE INTO THE OH VALLEY/UPR GRTLKS IN ITS WAKE.
640 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA USHERS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER. OTHERWISE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE TIMING OF STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1157 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 An absolutely beautiful day is underway across the region this afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. High pressure currently centered over northern Arkansas will move east into the Ohio Valley tonight, but not before bringing us another night of below normal temperatures. Light southeast winds overnight will keep readings just a bit warmer compared to this morning, but even then, temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s can be expected by daybreak Friday.
1044 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS PARALLEL TO THE LOWER KEYS ON THE GULF SIDE EARLIER TONIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED AS WELL AND THE HIGH CLOUDS PRODUCT OF THIS ACTIVITY HAVE REACHED THE BAYSIDE WATERS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER MAINLAND FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
813 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AMID THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
637 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 An absolutely beautiful day is underway across the region this afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. High pressure currently centered over northern Arkansas will move east into the Ohio Valley tonight, but not before bringing us another night of below normal temperatures. Light southeast winds overnight will keep readings just a bit warmer compared to this morning, but even then, temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s can be expected by daybreak Friday.
UNFAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE HIGH COUNTRY. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACK OVER 90 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY AFTN WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON STRONGER SOUTH WINDS A SURFACE TROF/DRYLINE MAY PROVE TO BE INTERESTING TOMORROW NIGHT AS CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG.
1000 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2015 A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOK OUT OF SYNC THIS EVENING AND THINKING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW IN TERMS OF DEEP FORCING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH SO WITH TIME BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CONTINUE TO USHER IN VERY PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY SEASONABLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD AT H7 AND/OR MID LEVEL LOW AT H5 WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREAD BACK NORTH IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHT (5-10KT) S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET.
WITH THIS INFORMATION AND TALKING TO THEM ABOUT THE STRONG DRY COLD FRONT. AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DESPITE THE COOLER WX THAT WINDS AND RH SHOULD REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER OUR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE DAYTIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN TSRAS PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND HELP DIMINISH THE RAIN CHANCES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NO GENERAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER OUR DISTRICT BUT MOST AREAS WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED TO THE EASTERN BORDER OF TN TAKING WITH IT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
In addition, there was an upper level low pressure system across Southeast Texas. Surface dewpoints were in the 70s southeast of the warm front and there was a belt of strong westerlies flowing across the Texas Panhandle and North Texas. As the warm front returns north late this afternoon and tonight, it could trigger some storms across the Northwest Hill Country and the nearby Interstate 10 corridor late this afternoon and early evening. For tomorrow, look for increasing south to southeast winds and warmer temperatures as a lee surface pressure trough develops across far West Texas.
NOT EXPECTING THE LOW CIGS ACROSS THE EAST LIKE LAST NIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN US AND CANADIAN BORDER.
641 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. /ISSUED 453 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
A MOIST UNSTABLE WEST TO NW FLOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
624 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A cooler than normal pattern continues for tonight into early Friday. Channeled vorticity moving across the Central/Northern Rockies at this time will amplify on the east side of the Rockies later tonight into early Friday, sharpening and phasing a trough across the eastern Plains/western Mississippi Valley Region.
1048 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST PASSED STATE COLLEGE WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND DEWPOINTS STARTING TO FADE AWAY. ATLC UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER/NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR BERMUDA.
1104 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA USHERS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER. OTHERWISE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE TIMING OF STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRESENCE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
THIS HIGHER MOISTURE MAY CAUSE FOG IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE ALLOWED TO DROP BEFORE CLOUDS COME IN. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREAD BACK NORTH IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
805 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AMID THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
936 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AND THUS ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
753 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COLD FRONT EXITS TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
900 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE APPALACHAINS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVER THE SATURATED GROUND MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND NRN MD.
902 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ATLC UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER/NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR BERMUDA.
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY DUE TO A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA.
/ISSUED 419 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER S/C TX WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
830 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER. WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER LEVY COUNTY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS FILLING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH TOWARDS CUBA. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MOST AREAS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE FREEZING. STILL BELIEVE THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE SOME INSOLATION OVERNIGHT AND THAT THE COLD SINKS WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS READINGS. BUT NOT FULLY CONFIDENT ON THIS THINKING GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD IS NOT A SOLID DECK. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL INVADE THE RIDGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
/ISSUED 221 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST WIND SHIFT, BUT ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER AIR.