Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front was analyzed from northern Michigan southwest through Wisconsin and Iowa. For tonight, southern Indiana and central Kentucky will remain on the northern fringes of an upper level ridge. The aforementioned cold front to the northwest will drop down toward the region tomorrow, reaching central to southern Indiana by early afternoon.
Model guidance which tends to be to warm on early season cool airmasses has been trending cooler. That trend leads to more confidence that the low to mid 30 range is a good start. A few below freezing numbers not out of the question especially in the low lying areas.
547 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will drift east while a cold front moves into the region late tonight into Wednesday morning.
605 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 An area of low pressure over quebec will continue to move eastward overnight. This will allow a cold front to sag southward across the region on Wednesday.
227 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
219 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the north Florida area through much of the week. Visible imagery shows an impressive low pressure system lifting northward along the northeast coast of Florida with well defined convective bands spiraling around the center.
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will ridge into the area from the East Coast through the day. A weak low pressure system will pass to the north of Lake Erie with a cold front settling south across the region on Wednesday.
Freezing temperatures are likely for many area valleys. However, Lemhi County in Idaho and portions of southwest Montana will remain a bit warmer tonight due to cloud cover moving overhead. On Wednesday, a closed low pressure circulation is expected to move over southwest Montana, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area (including Lemhi County).
Temperatures this afternoon were meeting the expected cooler highs, despite the extensive cloud cover.
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure centered over the region will slowly move offshore tonight. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday afternoon.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE BVO TERMINAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. Surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s/lower 70s across CWA so increase of heat and humidity will be noticeable after a drier cooler weekend. Latest short term models suggest best chances for afternoon thunderstorms will be along cold front across north central/northwest OK. Upper wave approaching from south central TX may support isolated storm development across the higher terrain of SE OK and western AR.
Overview: Mid level short wave trough is advancing into the northern lakes region with an upper jet streak stretching from the upper Midwest into Canada. Afternoon surface analysis reveals weak-ish sfc wave across the straits/northern Lake Huron area with a cold front snaking down through NW lower Michigan and on into SE Wisconsin. Tonight: Cold front and associated showers will slip SE through the rest of the CWA through early evening. Wednesday: High pressure and drier air make a big push into the region through the day. Certainly cooler however, with highs in the middle 60s to around 70.
137 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016 A trough of low pressure over California and Nevada will continue to create stronger onshore flow, significant cooling, a deep marine layer with night and morning low clouds extending into the far inland valleys, and strong and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts through tonight.
308 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will continue to drift east from the northern Mid- Atlantic coast through tonight. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
1119 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Northern stream trough lifting ne across the northern plains, with southern periphery lsa/fgen supporting sct shra across much of the western fa. Clouds will linger across mush of the area, esp given sfc ridging and recycling/veering easterly flow. However, the central Rockies counterpart upper low will begin to drift east with reflected moist southerly flow and increasing lsa eventually supporting chances for showers and ts by late wed afternoon far western areas. Staunch se flow wed will support a warmer day.
248 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure pulls east tonight. High pressure continues to pull off to the east, with southwesterly flow pushing warmer air into the region.
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Canadian high pressure built in across the northern plains today as a cold front sagged slowly across the CWA.
350 PM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The short term will be under the influence of a deep, slow-moving upper low that will bring windy and wet conditions with widespread thunderstorms, a few of them strong. The upper low lifts slowly across northern NV tonight and into NW Wyoming by Wednesday. Wednesday as the upper low lifts through NW Utah drier air works into the Utah zones with the best divergence aloft shifting into NW Colorado through the afternoon. Wednesday evening the cold front works through the region enhancing storm activity along mainly the Continental Divide.
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the north Florida area through much of the week. Visible imagery shows an impressive low pressure system lifting northward along the northeast coast of Florida with well defined convective bands spiraling around the center. This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone.
A drier and cooler air mass will move in from Wednesday into the weekend with near normal temperatures and only a slight chance of showers over far eastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were being observed during the afternoon hours in response to a vigorous upper low centered over the California/Nevada border. The upper low will continue to swing eastward across Nevada. After mid evening the winds should quiet down and shower/storm activity end as the low shifts eastward. forecast models show the trough axis swinging eastward with a drier and cooler air mass moving across northern Arizona.
323 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be south of our region tonight. A cold front will approach overnight and cross the area on Wednesday.
334 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 (Tonight - Wednesday) Cold front is currently located roughly along a KTOP to KDVN line as of 1900 UTC. This area has weakened slowly throughout the daylight hours as the low-level jet has faded considerably. Leaned a bit toward the NAM/ECMWF as the low-level baroclinic zone so far today has been slower to progress than earlier anticipated by model guidance. leaned aob the cooler MAV guidance for Wednesday's high temperatures across the northwestern half of the CWA where highs should stay within the 70s.
Little change in the outlook for midweek with similar conditions, but scattered to numerous elements may crowd the skies late week and this weekend with an approaching weak cold front. /issued 551 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ Remnants of the previous upper level low pressure system over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Four State Region over the next couple of days. Another upper level disturbance that was moving across West Texas in Southwest flow between a closed upper low pressure system over California and the upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast States and extention West into the forecast area, will also contribute to convection chances across Northern sections.
335 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 Fair weather will continue through the overnight period as high pressure remains off the east coast. A cold front will cross the region on Wednesday bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Latest satellite and radar loops continue to show better moisture and clouds just off the ne fl coast associated with a weak area of low pressure near the sfc moving slowly northward. Aloft a weak inverted trof is noted stretching from the se ga coast to the central gulf by 06z wed progged to drift further west through wed afternoon. ranging from the lower to middle 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s near the coast. With plenty of clouds and moisture especially to the east and along the coast daytime highs will be near or just above seasonal averages ranging from the lower 90s to the north and northwest of Mobile and the upper 80s to the east and northeast including the immediate coast.
A weather disturbance passing through the region this evening will continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, mainly over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona. A much drier airmass will then envelop the region through the remainder of the week, and into the upcoming weekend, yielding widespread dry weather, with temperatures remaining near to slightly cooler than normal. Although this jet max is generating considerable mid and high cloudiness over SW and south-central AZ (which will likely inhibit convective development over the lower elevations), the latest SPC Mesoscale analysis is showing decent MLCAPE (500-1000 J/KG) over the higher terrain east of Phoenix. In fact, with cooler daytime temperatures, an extremely dry airmass, and clear skies, overnight lows will easily plummet into the 60s for many lower elevation locations (and even some 50s in the coolest communities).
Scattered showers and storms have developed across the region with the best coverage across the western zones where the highest instability resides. Although most of the afternoon storms will dissipate with the loss of heating, additional storms will be possible later in the evening and overnight across the northwest zones as a cold front approaches. The cold front is not expected to reach North Texas tonight but some storms that develop on the front or any southward moving outflows may affect the CWA.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will maintain sunny and dry conditions for the remainder of this week. Daytime temperatures will be a little warmer than normal for mid September. The ridge will weaken enough late this week to allow a weather system to reach the area over the weekend and perhaps bring some showers. The coast will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the 60s.
Low pressure will move north with locally heavy rain, gusty winds Current-Tonight. Low pressure across Volusia county is moving northward with deep convection east of the center and a trailing feeder band from Brevard county to the SW toward Okeechobee county during the late afternoon. Earlier ship report and blend of the higher short range guidance supports strong winds continuing into this evening across the Volusia Atlc waters and immediate coastal areas.
Morning lows, however, will be cold with the potential for freezing temperatures through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather will likely come to an end sometime this weekend as a cold front moves through the region. A dry airmass in place with high pressure building in will result in a sunny day across the Inland Northwest. More freezing temperatures are expected for Wednesday morning. Building high pressure will also suppress any upward motion over the Inland Northwest with clear skies and VFR conditions expected.
By Wednesday the above mentioned cdfnt will drift towards the TN valley along with a weak building upper high. The chc of pcpn will be on the low side, however with daytime heating and enough instability during the aftn hours, will go with a slight chc of pops across the cwa.
126 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow dry weather to continue until a front approaches on Wednesday. Plenty of sunshine and a dry environment is leading to temperatures warmer than forecast, so bumped them up a few degrees across much of the area. Also increased sky grids slightly for ridge-based cumulus. With winds shifting to the southwest, daytime highs should run about five degrees warmer than yesterday. Although the cold front will pass through the region Wednesday, much of the lift will remain to the northeast across New York and England.
While southerly return flow will be in place along with some clouds lifting north across the area, dry dewpoint temperatures should allow the locations over my northeast to drop to near freezing tonight.
Overall pattern not expected to change much next 48 hours as upper level ridge remains over SE CONUS. with embedded tropical low inside the ridge. Temps will remain above normal in this pattern and unless tropical low moves further north into ridge.
An upper PV max in the southern stream of the westerlies resides over the Great Basin, while another trough in the northern stream slides east near the Canadian border. Storms are firing along the pre-frontal trough from SW to N Central OK. Other isolated showers were developing over the higher terrain of W AR and SE OK.
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Latest regional surface analysis shows high pressure continues offshore the mid Atlantic coast with subtle ridging continuing through east central GA. Of more concern however the is the persistent circulation along the NE Florida coast which along with the high is maintaining a strong onshore flow and allowing copious amounts of moisture to move into the area.
However, with the loss of what little surface heating is occurring, persistent upslope winds in the low levels and low dew point depressions, clouds will persist with patchy fog and drizzle possible overnight. Precipitation chances will probably hold off until near or slightly after 00z Wednesday afternoon as heights begin to fall ahead of the upper low as it moves into the northern Rockies. Temperatures will be a little warmer compared to today, but still below normal.
The upper low centered over central Nevada/California will gradually move northeast into southern Idaho over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile an upper ridge in the eastern Pacific will slowly inch eastward. We'll still be caught in a weak north flow aloft and with the ridge still positioned offshore, I do not expect temperatures to be much different from today west of the Cascades, but they should end up a few degrees higher on average on the east side.
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through Wednesday night.
/issued 131 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ Upper trough extends from MT back to CA with a ridge over the eastern half of the country.
328 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 Quiet weather expected tonight with high pressure gradually moving east of the area. a cold front will quickly enter the region from the west on Wednesday and enhance the potential for showers across much of the area.
Clouds will decrease over the area tonight as upper and low level ridging takes over. Wednesday looks pretty bright for the area as the ridging surface and aloft moves slowly to the east. Winds will turn southeasterly, but warm advection clouds ahead of the approaching western trough should barely begin to make it to the far southwest in the afternoon.
255 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will drift east while a cold front moves into the region late tonight and Wednesday. Highs today will reach the lower 80s and lows tonight will remain in the 60s.
437 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Aviation section updated A weak cold front will bring chances for rain tonight and Wednesday, but a stronger system will bring better chances for rain during the early part of the weekend. Hi Res Rapid Refresh has been consistent in bringing some scattered showers into the extreme northwest forecast area this evening in this higher dewpoint air. The remainder of the northwest forecast area as well as the far north will have to wait until overnight for some low rain chances, as a cold front approaches the area. Temperatures will be warmer tonight with the higher moisture content moving in.
610 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be south of our region tonight. A cold front will approach overnight and cross the area on Wednesday.
Strong high pressure ridge aloft and at surface over the Southeast and Eastern seaboard will hang tough across the Ohio Valley, likely providing dry and increasingly warmer conditions over the next 24 to 36 hours. The high(s) break down enough by Wednesday to allow a slight mainly diurnal chance of a shower or storm, as the models show some moisture embedded in a southwesterly fetch may just top the ridge and help induce some spotty qpf coverage.
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Upper level pattern across the CONUS continues to be characterized by a trof over the w and the ridge over the se, with our region just on the nwrn periphery of the ridge. Several disturbances will pass over the top of the ridge, even weakening it enough to get a cold front into our nrn areas Fri/Sat, providing some enhanced coverage of convection for the entire weekend and into early next work week. Little change in the outlook for midweek with similar conditions, but scattered to numerous elements may crowd the skies late week and this weekend with an approaching weak cold front.
1138 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 As the strong low pressure system consolidates over central Nevada today the jetstream will curve through the bottom of the trough over the Las Vega region and then aim due north over central Utah to Great Salt lake. Wednesday, the upper low lifts into NW Wyoming with strong SW gradient winds especially in NE Utah and NW Colorado. The associated cold front passes Wednesday evening.
As far as precipitation goes, airmass is somewhat unstable over the higher terrain where scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected form. Most of the convection should dissipate as it moves off the higher terrain and into more stable air.
Early this afternoon, surface heating combined with cold air advection and an upper trough moving overhead have allowed a large cu field to develop across northern and central MN. This sets the stage for a clear and calm night in which radiational cooling under the high will be efficient. MET guidance suggested mid 30s should be achievable near the Little Falls area, and with the high directly overhead, low-lying areas could cool further. Farther south and east, the thermal profile is simply warmer so we don't expect frost elsewhere.
/Tonight/ Cold front that moved through the northwest portion of the state last night, has pushed through the remainder of the CWA today and is currently stretching across far southeastern IA into northern MO. With Canadian high pressure to the north, drier and cooler air will advect into the state with sunny skies across much of the state. The influence of the high will wane quickly by Wednesday night with warm advection increasing on the backside of the ridge.
Currently, long wave trough exiting into the Western Great Lakes region with a short wave ridge trying to build northward across the Northern High Plains. Earlier issued a frost advisory for the Western Devils Lake basin and Turtle Mountain region where we expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s. While southerly return flow will be in place along with some clouds lifting north across the area tonight, dry dewpoint temperatures should allow the locations over my northeast to drop to near freezing contributing to frost early tomorrow morning. Short wave ridging builds into the Northern Plains during the day Wednesday keeping things dry along with helping temperatures moderate into the mid 60s and lower 70s.
131 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Upper trough extends from MT back to CA with a ridge over the eastern half of the country.
Some increase in moisture will lead to a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms from Thursday through the weekend, with temperatures easing down for the weekend as high pressure weakens and clouds increase.
347 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Hot and humid conditions along with scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for a couple more days across North Texas before upper ridging builds back in across the Southern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough centered over Louisiana this morning. To the northwest of the upper trough. there is some weak troughing noted from south of Lubbock to near Wichita Falls and into southern Oklahoma. upper ridging begins to nudge back eastward into the area.
657 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure is weakly in place across the region.
High pressure will maintain hot and dry conditions through much of the remainder of the work week.
328 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm high pressure remains over the area today with temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s.
619 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and stall across the region tonight into Thursday.
Rain chances will increase overnight as the upper trough axis amplifies along the spine of the ms river. However, the highest mrh levels do linger across the northwestern portions of the cwa where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall will be possible through Thursday.
549 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Update A slow moving cold front will result in scattered thunderstorms today, mostly north of I-96. Due to the clouds and showers it will be cooler with highs in the lower 80s.
141 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress.
124 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, maintaining uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week.
KMPX and KGRB 12z soundings show dry mid levels and also the possibility with sfc heating this afternoon mixing out the dew points in the lower levels in the afternoon with sfc dew points falling in the afternoon. Beginning Wednesday night: The cold front moving through Upper Michigan on Wednesday will stall just south of Upper Mi Wed evening.
High pressure will continue through mid week with warm and dry conditions.
625 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm high pressure remains over the area today with temperatures warming into the 80s and 90s.
Cleaned up the wx/pop grids but expecting additional coverage of showers and storms within the next few hours and persisting into the late night hours across mainly the eastern half of the cwa while the upper level low spinning east- southeastward through the region works in tandem with the cold front also working southeast through the dakotas to produce adequate forcing/lift for convection. Both Wednesday and Thursday should have below normal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s north central and central to the upper 80s far southwest. Lows kept near previous forecast from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s south and east.
/issued 343 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/ A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida over the next several days. This area of high pressure will also limit convection across the east coast metro areas of South Florida, allowing for hot afternoon temperatures to occur. This will allow the area of high pressure to push farther east of South Florida. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the rest of the week.
This area of convection may briefly merge with a line of storms tracking east from the panhandle with the northern area becoming more dominant by late evening with support from the nose of the low level jet. Temperatures will be much cooler north of the front with highs Wednesday in the lower 80s. Upper ridge has retreated over the desert southwest placing the northern plains in fast northwest flow with chances for thunderstorm development nearly every day. Weak cold front over the Dakotas will drop south across Nebraska on Thursday with slight chance pops retained along the front as it progresses south.