Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The warm front is progged to lift north into the CWA overnight and Thursday and may serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
927 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A dry night is expected with exiting high pressure.
Slight change in the longwave pattern this weekend as an upper trough/low drop south from the Gulf of AK sweeping into the Pac NW. Given the cooler air aloft it may allow for mixing out of the marine layer. Upper level low continues off the northern California coast. SFO Bridge Approach. North to northwesterly winds will increase over the coastal waters this afternoon as high pressure builds over the Eastern Pacific.
634 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 0Z TAFs - Several rounds of scattered showers/storms are possible across portions of the area during this TAF period with the highest chances in northern Oklahoma. An even higher chance of storms returns late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening as a storm complex is expected to develop in southern Kansas or near the Oklahoma border and moving south/southeast through the area with the highest precipitation chances northeast.
1001 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will move east of Pennsylvania on Thursday, starting a moderating temperature trend with slowly increasing moisture.
909 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over the region overnight. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the eastern sections of the forecast area on Thursday.
An inverted trough has started to develop across east central KY. This trough will shift a bit westward overnight and then shift eastward again tomorrow and become more washed out. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, particularly across south and east central KY where cloud cover will be increasing and more moisture will be streaming in. Conversely tomorrow, east central KY will be cooler than the rest of the forecast area, though most should make it into the 80s.
Given this, we have raised PoPs into the high chance category over the northern parts of Parmer, Castro and northwestern Swisher Counties for the remainder of tonight. The airmass across the area has been stabilized in the wake of this feature, with the 20 UTC surface analysis showing the theta-e ridge extending northward in eastern NM before bending northeast into the northwest TX and OKLA Panhandles. Thunderstorm development will occur in that area this afternoon and evening, and especially around the Raton Mesa where a weak cold front intersects the elevated terrain.
The airmass across the area has been stabilized in the wake of this feature, with the 20 UTC surface analysis showing the theta-e ridge extending northward in eastern NM before bending northeast into the northwest TX and OKLA Panhandles. Thunderstorm development will occur in that area this afternoon and evening, and especially around the Raton Mesa where a weak cold front intersects the elevated terrain.
This all means that any rain chances will not be widespread with amounts on the low side.
/issued 407 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017/ Latest upper air analysis revealed a broad weak trough from the Eastern Seaboard to Lower Mississippi Valley, high over southern New Mexico, deep low associated with Franklin over Bay of Campeche and retreating ridge axis over Florida/west Atlantic. With the breakdown of the col and main broad trough sinking south over the last two days, flow was generally southwest to west from 700mb to 200mb over the forecast area. 18 The trough axis weakens and moisture axis will become more diffuse but pw values remain elevated through the remainder of the week and through the weekend. However, mid layer warming will remain west close to the ridge and convection will have no problem developing with surface heating each day.
943 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday.
Northerly flow continue to drag in stable air across the region and limited cloud cover will provide for a cooler night. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: With the upper-level ridge remaining to the west and the long- wave upper trough to the east, Northeast Montana will continue the northwest flow aloft pattern of late. Thus cooler than normal highs will continue through the short-term period. Eastern zones will be cooler than western zones. There will be lingering showers behind the low that may affect our far eastern zones with intermittent light rain and thunder, but more likely not.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered from the Mid Mississippi Valley eastward thru the Ohio Valley and the Southern Great Lakes this afternoon. Low pressure continues to develop over the Northern Plains. with an associated stationary front extending eastward from the low thru Northern Minnesota and Upper Michigan.
1243 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front will stall across the region today.
The stronger forcing looks to stay to our north tomorrow afternoon and evening but with the front approaching our area during peak heating, especially across the north, will continue to hang on to the highest POPs in that area, with progressively lower POPs south. Retreating high pressure area keeping southeast flow over region, allowing the deep moisture retunr to go through MO into IA ahead of the approaching front in SD. Upper level low center had moved into ND today, and is progged to move into Great Lakes area. Trailing cold front to reach central IL thursday night. Best upper support over the northern third of IL, closer to the upper level low system.
There is excellent model consensus that is surge should occur late tonight/early Thursday, as a weak inverted trof moves northwestward towards the northern Gulf of California.
828 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Showers and thunderstorms have been mainly confined to the higher terrain this evening with cloud cover spreading out onto the plains as weak energy moves through the area with cyclonic flow aloft. Hi-res models show visibility reductions across the east late tonight into tomorrow morning as the lower levels saturate.
This will be ahead of a low pressure system currently located over North Dakota and an associated frontal boundary progged to push southeast through the Plains and into the region Thursday night.
1215 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Aviation High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east during the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front Thursday night.
1214 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure offshore will continue to move east tonight. Low pressure will move north of the region this weekend.
948 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Generally fair weather will continue through Thursday under high pressure with only a slight chance for a shower or storm mainly in north central New York.
The current area of showers and storms along the Highway 183/281 corridor should continue in that area through the remainder of the afternoon before gradually propagating east out of the area late this afternoon and early evening. The GFS is warmer than the NAM with boundary layer conditions during the day. Thunderstorms should begin developing over the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas along the front by mid afternoon.
West to NW flow aloft continues over the region with high pressure to the south and a deep trough over the Great Lakes. Specific humidity values for this afternoon and evening will increase over the higher terrain and along the south of the Palmer Divide. this will interact with a stalled cold front over the eastern CO border with moderately moist ESE flow. West-northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as upper troughing remains over the upper Midwest and high pressure remains over Texas.
737 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Aviation High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east during the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front Thursday night.
740 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will continue to provide mainly clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures through Thursday.
Models are keeping the interior dry overnight but with the low right along the coast have left some low pops over the coastal range and Southern Cascades for late tonight. Thunderstorms popping up this afternoon over the Coastal Range in response to UVM provided by upper low currently near the NW CA coast. Afternoon temps running cooler in most areas, minus the Northern Sacramento Valley, with greatest cooling in the vicinity of the Delta. Water vapor imagery showing stronger vort max rotating around base of upper low. Models similar in slowly tracking upper low inland across Interior NorCal Thursday.
Clouds should decrease again tonight, mainly along and north of the highway 200 corridor. A wedge of high pressure slides through the forecast area on Friday. Subsiding air behind an exiting upper level trough will allow for clear and dry conditions.
623 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will build in from the west today and will shift offshore Friday morning.
Mixed precipitation possible this evening southwest of PIR, in the form of snow or light freezing rain for an hour or so. Friday will be marked by cold air sliding back into the entire region, with highs only in the single digits as large high pressure settles into eastern MT and keeps a ridge overhead.
Look for another warm day today as high pressure aloft remains over the Eastern Pacific.
Cloudiness will begin to increase from the south tonight as the the previously mentioned high pressure center moves off the eastern seaboard, resulting in return flow from the Gulf for the SE. This feature will slowly lift back north on Friday as a warm front.
1055 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 Dry high pressure will build into the area today and tonight. Moisture will increase again Friday ahead of a warm front.
Temperatures may not move too much where cloudiness persists given weak cold air advection behind cold front.
634 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 The cold front will continue pushing east through the area early this morning with high pressure ridging into the area from the north in its wake. Moisture will increase again Friday ahead of a warm front.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific and west coast bringing fair and dry conditions this morning with just a few high clouds spilling over the ridge and into far northern California.
Upper level analysis shows ridge off the west coast, with strong northwest flow over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. On the southern end of the pcpn band, am thinking there will be some freezing drizzle and some light freezing rain through this evening before the colder air aloft moves through the area. At this time I have opted to leave this area out since the timing of the cold air is still uncertain and the warmer temperatures today should allow for some melting of the current precipitation reducing the overall amounts.
The ridge remains in place just offshore with high clouds riding over the top into our forecast area. At the surface the thermal trough at the coast is starting to weaken with lighter offshore flow mainly on the coastal range. Tonight the ridge axis retrogrades westward and allows a more northerly to set up over our area. This will bring a dry cold front into the area from the north.
A slightly cooler and drier airmass is filtering into the region this morning in the wake of a cold front.
Light winds and dry air have allowed temperatures to fall below freezing statewide with northern areas seeing lower 20s to teens in outlying areas. The ridge will begin to drift east throughout the day and southerly winds will return nearly statewide by this afternoon. Expect high temperatures to remain in the 40s across eastern areas closer to the ridge, while western parts of the state will likely climb into the 50s to near 60 degrees. Overnight lows will be some 5- 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Additionally, a new cold front will approach from the north and will introduce much colder air to northern parts of the state.
Travel conditions will also become problematic for the lower elevations of western Montana including the Kootenai River Valley, the Flathead Valley southward to the Missoula Valley, and southeastward to Butte.
523 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure today. Lingering weak upslope snow showers and flurries will come to an end this morning with high pressure system building in. High pressure to our east will provide weak pressure gradient and calm to weak sfc southerly flow through tonight. Winds at H850 will increase from the southwest to 30 knots bringing relatively warmer air. These conditions will provide comfortable temperatures Friday mainly in the mid to upper 50s, but dropping near freezing once again late Friday night.
High pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will continue to provide unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. High pressure will continue to remain in control for the next couple of days.
This is in response to a 500mb short wave traversing the parent broad trough.
630 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will build into the area today, and linger into Friday. The cold front had pushed offshore this morning. The dry and chilly pattern end quickly on Friday as the high pressure is forecast to move off the coast. By Friday night, a warm front will approach from the south late. The temperatures will also be much milder with lows in the lower to mid 40s NE ranging into the lower 50s south.
With high pressure right over top of us, it will be a sunny day with highs topping out in the lower 40s to near 50. Products were updated to take out the morning freezing fog wording. Patchy fog/freezing fog may still develop.
430 AM MST Thu Feb 8 2018 Northwest flow aloft will continue across the area today and tonight, while surface winds take on a w-sw component as lee trough deepens slowly along the I-25 corridor. Much Cooler and Unsettled Weather This Weekend.
Late tonight and Friday morning, snow will exit while the next Arctic high pressure system advances southward over the region.
941 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will move across the Upper Ohio Valley today, then move off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will slide slowly east today and will be centered over Ohio by this evening. All snow will come to an end this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will shift east and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight. Snow will taper off Friday night as the first wave of low pressure departs across the eastern Great Lakes.
716 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will move across the Upper Ohio Valley today, then move off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will slide slowly east today and will be centered over Ohio by this evening. All snow will come to an end this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will shift east and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight. Snow will taper off Friday night as the first wave of low pressure departs across the eastern Great Lakes.
The low cigs will linger until around 15z with all sites becoming VFR with only high level cloudiness thereafter. The axis of an upper level trough will slide across and then east of the local area today.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Brownsville radar indicates some lingering light rain across far eastern Cameron County and across the lower Texas Gulf waters this morning. Cloudy and cool conditions are expected across deep south Texas today with high temperatures struggling to get into the low to mid 50s. A coastal trough is forecast to develop this afternoon and evening which will maintain a chance of light rain and drizzle, mainly across the coastal counties overnight. A warm front approaches the lower Texas coast late Friday afternoon.
We will see southerly winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph later today and milder temperatures returning with highs back into the lower to middle 50s. It will make it into the lower 50s northwest of I-44 but the frontal passage will begin the decline in temperatures by late afternoon.
518 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 Warm air aloft is spreading across wrn and ncntl Neb this morning and should continue throughout the day before a strong arctic cold front arrives this evening. The light radar returns represent the warm front and the model consensus suggests the potential for some light snow or rain across nrn Neb today. It was the coolest model and this solution is consistent with strong arctic cold fronts which tend to out-race the models at night. The GFS one hour data was the basis for freezing rain and sleet along and just behind the arctic front.
High pressure will continue to hold in place the remainder of the week resulting in above normal daytime high temperatures. The hemispheric flow pattern remains in a high amplitude blocking regime with anomalously high heights extending along the entire east Pacific basin. Some operational models suggest a secondary wave finally cutting through the ridge axis and intensifying somewhere near the SW Conus. Heights/thicknesses aloft will be maximized the next 48 hours over the forecast area in NW flow downstream from the core of the east Pacific blocking ridge.
South winds will continue across western Kansas today at around 10-15 mph, with warmer lower tropospheric temperatures thanks to improved cross-mountain flow ahead of the next system. The leeside low will continue to push south down the High Plains as mid level heights lower, and strong cold frontogenesis at the surface will ensue. A sharp arctic cold front will be pushing south Friday morning, reaching southwest Kansas as early as daybreak. The official grids will reflect near steady temperatures, but in all likelihood we will probably see falling temperatures through much of the day, well down into the lower to mid 20s by afternoon (perhaps teens up at Hays).
621 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure today. Lingering weak upslope snow showers and flurries will come to an end this morning with high pressure system building in. High pressure to our east will provide weak pressure gradient and calm to weak sfc southerly flow through tonight. Winds at H850 will increase from the southwest to 30 knots bringing relatively warmer air. These conditions will provide comfortable temperatures Friday mainly in the mid to upper 50s, but dropping near freezing once again late Friday night.
Upper flow will transition from northwesterly behind the exiting trough to zonal by tonight. With the warm front moving back northward today, temperatures will climb back to near or just above normal for highs. Britt Will have a wide range of temperatures on Friday as warm front transitions to a cold front and begins to sink south into the forecast area. Moisture will be rather limited, so just expect some light snow, rain and or freezing drizzle, depending on surface temps across northeast MO and west central IL. Will see loss of ice crystals aloft especially over southern half of forecast area, so as colder air filters in at the surface will probably see freezing drizzle with light snow north.
Winds turn around to the south and southwest today as the cold high pressure slides east and lee troughing develops over the central High Plains due to increasing downslope flow over the Rockpile. A strong PV max currently topping the eastern Pacific/West Coast ridge will slide southeast down the spine of the Rockies over the next couple of days and will then slide across the central/southern Plains this weekend.
Will go ahead and leave the freezing fog in the forecast. The southerly flow will pick up on Friday and it will be much warmer with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Dry today and warmer, but still slightly below seasonal averages. The low clouds will expand north and west tonight and Friday. Warmer tonight and Friday with highs Friday back to or slightly above seasonal averages.
Cool surface ridging that was in place over the region yesterday will move southeast today as surface lee troughing strengthens in New Mexico. Unfortunately, there still exists high uncertainty for the cold front on Friday.
Sunshine today will help warm temperatures to just a tick below normal with highs expected to range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. A low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains on Friday.
550 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure traveling across Kentucky will provide dry weather today. Snow developing along a warm front near Lake Erie may affect northern locations on Friday.
/issued 431 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Brownsville radar indicates some lingering light rain across far eastern Cameron County and across the lower Texas Gulf waters this morning. Cloudy and cool conditions are expected across deep south Texas today with high temperatures struggling to get into the low to mid 50s. A coastal trough is forecast to develop this afternoon and evening which will maintain a chance of light rain and drizzle, mainly across the coastal counties overnight. A warm front approaches the lower Texas coast late Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will generally be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, maybe held back slightly be some cloud cover, especially over the northern border areas. Minimal flurries may persist over the mountain ridges, but there should be even less of this with some drying. We will keep a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the northeast corner in case things are faster or wetter than anticipated.
/issued 343 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018/ (Today and Tonight) A very impressive amplified upper level ridge over Alaska and a Hudson Bay upper level low continue to result in a broad cyclonic upper level trough across West Central Texas.
A long wave upper level trough deepening over the desert southwest will set up a series of disturbances moving through the upper level flow.
244 AM PST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will create quiet and warm weather conditions through tomorrow.
1007 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure traveling across Kentucky will provide dry weather today. Snow developing along a warm front near Lake Erie may affect northern locations on Friday.
Friday starts out drier then in the afternoon the next frontal boundary sags further south as a stronger upper trough approaches from the north. Mountain snow and valley rain should increase as this trough moves through WY and the jet drops down over the forecast area.
Highs today look to range from the upper 30s along the Nebraska and Kansas border to the lower 50s south of Interstate 70. Tonight a cold front will move southeast into north central and northeast Kansas as a result of mid level troughing from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Tonight's lows will vary from the teens to lower 20s north of the cold front to the mid 30s across east central Kansas. Have therefore increased winds through the day behind the cold front.
As a result, temperatures are mainly in or approaching the low teens this morning, as the overnight lows were hit earlier in the overnight hours, with the exception of the far eastern portions of the state. Temperatures today will increase with increasingly southerly winds pushing warmer air into the region. Regions to the south will get into the low to mid 30s. A baroclinic zone is setting up to the north with a warm front stalling later tonight. If the better forcing shifts south earlier, the higher totals could end up changing the hazards considerably.
857 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure builds in today. Lingering weak upslope snow showers and flurries will come to an end this morning with high pressure system building in. High pressure to our east will provide weak pressure gradient and calm to weak sfc southerly flow through tonight. Winds at H850 will increase from the southwest to 30 knots bringing relatively warmer air. These conditions will provide comfortable temperatures Friday mainly in the mid to upper 50s, but dropping near freezing once again late Friday night.
937 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will build in from the west today and will shift offshore Friday morning.