Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH IT AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS. AS THE UPPER TROF ROTATES IN. IT WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER PA LATE TONIGHT. STORMS FIRING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. HOPING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSING AROUND 00Z. THE LOWERING FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE AT THE PRICE OF WIND/HAIL. COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAKE A RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG WHAT WAS THE WARM FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND MOVE MOST OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
While the atmosphere ahead of it is currently unstable, the current thinking is that as the night progresses, the low levels will stabilize somewhat with the loss of diurnal heating, and the MCS will begin to weaken.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS IN A WAA/POS THETA-E ADV REGIME. HAVE INCORPORATED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS PROGGED.
1205 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AVIATION THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL QUIET DOWN FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST A FEW SHRA REMAIN AS THE UPPER TROF SETTLES IN. THIS WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH IT AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS. AS THE UPPER TROF ROTATES IN. IT WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER PA LATE TONIGHT. STORMS FIRING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. HOPING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSING AROUND 00Z. THE LOWERING FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE AT THE PRICE OF WIND/HAIL. COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CWA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, PUSHING ANY CONVECTION TO THE EAST ALONG WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF IN THAT AREA TONIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TORNADIC THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE TRIGGERING OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
1032 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THINK THAT SEVERE CHANCES RESIDE ON THE LOW SIDE. WHILE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER CORRIDOR.
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S.
1247 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND KEEP THIS AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER. BUT WITH DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
/ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER INTO THE WEEKEND AND SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE ON HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S INLAND /WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST/.
/ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ HEAT CONTINUES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK TROF/WIND SHIFT LINE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CUMULUS JUST TO OUR EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST AS THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST IL ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR FOR MOST AREAS. MLCAPE HAS RISEN TO 500-750J/KG IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND DIMINISHES TO THE EAST IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT.
1102 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 91 70 91 / 50 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 88 68 88 / 60 20 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 68 87 / 60 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 84 62 86 / 70 20 10 10 TN.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE: WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MDH WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF OUR REGION AND WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
955 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT /AND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE FOR THAT MATTER/. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF MAY NUDGE SLOWLY W INTO SE AR/NE LA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS HAS BUMPED THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS RIGHT OVER US.
631 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU. DECENT PUSH OF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS IS PRESENT THU MORNING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MOVE DURING THE DAY. WHICH WOULD BE MORE AROUND THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTH. WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT HAVING A LOT OF SAY IN WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND IF THERE WOULD BE A STRONG/SEVERE RISK.
1030 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TROF WCST. RIDGE CNTRL CONUS WITH CENTER OVR TX. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS POINTING UP THRU THE DAKOTAS. THEN TROF ERN CONUS. SFC HAS GENERALLY WEAK HIGH P OVR WY WITH A WEAK TROF ORIENTED FROM SE TO NW TO CNTRL WY.
715 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
FREEZING LEVEL AT 18KFT. /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT DRY WEATHER.
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY.
THE HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES. THE HIGHER BULK SHEAR IS NOT NECESSARY TO KEEP THE LINE GOING ONCE IT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED.
729 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE INLAND. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY).
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BE 1 OR 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS OF THE AREA.
STRATUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN ITS OVERSPREAD OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS SLOW TRUCK TOT HE EAST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DRAMATICALLY OVER INDIANA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LINGERS IN THIS REGION. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
A WELCOME REPRIEVE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK AND HEAT INDICES TO PUSH THE LOW 100S IN SOME AREAS.
There is good agreement amongst the models that this axis will tighten up and lift northward overnight as well defined warm front. By the evening hours, an upper level wave will overtop the ridge.
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THIS TAF CYCLE AND THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECASTS. HOT AND CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS OF THE AREA.
940 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHERE THE STRONGER WESTERLIES/PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED BUT THE ACTIVITY MAY PROPAGATE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
LAST OF THE STORMS ALONG SURFACE FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE COUNTIES IN SW PA. THE HEAVIER RAIN IS ACTUALLY PIVOTING TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE MOVEMENT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN PA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE FRUSTRATING IN THAT THE MODELS SHOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND. NOW RATHER THAN RETROGRADING THE RIDGE INTO CENTRAL TX, THE TREND IS TO KEEP THE CENTER OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THAT WILL BE IT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT TO THE EAST AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUIETER AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE TROUGH BRINGS IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAKE A RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION HAS MADE THE WARM FRONT HARD TO FIND BUT IT LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF I-80. WITH THE COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION FROM NW PA DOWN INTO OHIO. AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND MOVE MOST OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
593-ISH 5H RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST STATE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THIS REGIONAL HOT AND DRY PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER INTO THE WEEKEND AND SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE ON HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S INLAND /WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST/.
950 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF OUR REGION AND WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
550 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER TROUGHS WERE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND EAST OF THE MS VALLEY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER TX/AR/LA WERE PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MOIST FETCH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.
/ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ The upper ridge responsible for recent hot temperatures will continue to dominate sensible weather this week, with above normal temperatures expected to continue through the upcoming weekend. Not much change expected Wednesday, as the ridge axis remains east of the area and 850mb temps remain in the 28C-30C range, translating to afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. The GFS shifts the ridge axis a bit further east than other guidance, which would allow for some moisture associated with Hurricane Dolores in the Eastern Pacific to route northward over western portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon.
UPPER TROUGHS WERE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND EAST OF THE MS VALLEY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER TX/AR/LA WERE PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MOIST FETCH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.
1219 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE INLAND. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY).
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS A 595DM H5 RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. DEWPOINTS AND THUS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
645 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK TROF/WIND SHIFT LINE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CUMULUS JUST TO OUR EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST AS THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST IL ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 217 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU. DECENT PUSH OF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS IS PRESENT THU MORNING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MOVE DURING THE DAY. WHICH WOULD BE MORE AROUND THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTH. WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT HAVING A LOT OF SAY IN WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND IF THERE WOULD BE A STRONG/SEVERE RISK.
1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AROUND SUNSET.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. AS THE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARD MORNING EXCEPT OVER THE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
856 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
LIGHT VEERING WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS. DRY COOLER AIR MASS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN RANCH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAVEL EAST A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PREVAILS WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GULF WATERS WITH SE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
927 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. THERE IS ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FOR A FEW REPORTS WEST OF OUR AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE AND GARRETT COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE W WEST OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE ARE FINALLY BREAKING UP. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING REINFORCING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
Thermal ridge will amplify within surface trof axis and with downslope winds Sunday's high temps will rebound nicely to near normal. Pattern repeats itself with Mon PM being warmer ahead of yet another dry shrtwv trof that will pass Tue PM with little temp change. Thermal ridge still is the main low level player Wed PM keeping high temps above normal. Another, though deeper, trof will pass to the n on Thur pushing temps back down closer to normal with gusty morning winds behind the front.
AND A DROP IN THE FREEZING LEVEL TO AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. WITH FREEZING LEVELS SO LOW.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE ARE FINALLY BREAKING UP. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING REINFORCING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS. ALSO MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES. MODELS NEAR TO OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. AGAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON ALL THIS AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS THE GULF LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500FT FOR A FEW HOURS AS A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN, HOWEVER SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NW AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. GALE WARNING STILL IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 35-45 KTS WINDS LIKELY NEAR AND BEHIND THE LOW. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
Winds will shift northwest in Fisher and Haskell counties towards 5 PM, as yet another cold front approaches.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED TROF FROM UPR MI TOWARD SE ONTARIO. AIR MASS IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW PRES IS VERY COLD WITH 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS -26C. ALTHOUGH THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE 18Z GFS STRENGTHENS THE LOW AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS NORTH CNTL FL OVERNITE AND OFFSHORE THE LOWER ST JOHNS COUNTY COAST 12Z SUNDAY. BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE LOW TRACKS TO HELP SPAWN BRIEF SPIN-UPS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFT 08Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CNLT FL AND EXITS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AM. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CNTL FL TONIGHT AND EXIT OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
GALE WARNING STILL IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 35-45 KTS WINDS LIKELY NEAR AND BEHIND THE LOW. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL OF FREEZING FOG FORMATION IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING DECREASING DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG FORMATION THERE. HAVE HELD MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THOSE AREAS. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR FREEZING FOG AT KAMA BTWN 17/09Z - 17/15Z. WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL OCCUR THRU 17/18Z BECOMING NORTHERLY BTWN 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS COLD FRONT PASSES TAF SITES AFTER 17/18Z. PATCHING FREEZING FOG MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A weak trof passage tonight should help clear (low) clouds west to east, eventually. That'll translate to low temps at the surface in the single digits (Sun nite and Mon nite), and sub freezing highs (Mon).