Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There will be a considerable moisture gradient across the CWA today, with the highest precipitable water values over the Suwannee Valley and interior southeast Georgia where PWATS are climatologically high, ranging between 2. Deep moisture convergence is indicated over from the Big Bend of Florida into south central Georgia this morning, where best moisture plume and deformation area aloft exists between high pressure over the Atlantic and Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. The axis of the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain over the Atlantic extending westward into SE GA and NE FL through mid week as a developing tropical system over the central Gulf of Mexico moves toward Louisiana and the far upper Texas coast.
We still believe we will see isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today working off the Beartooths/Absarokas into the lower elevations. Ahead of the associated cold front, temperatures will climb into the lower 90s with the aid of pre- front warming. As the cold front moves through the area late this afternoon and into the evening, still expecting some thunderstorms to develop. Wednesday will generally be dry behind the cold front. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler.
Current temperatures are running around 3-6 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the upper 40s and 50s in the mountain valleys to the 60s and 70s elsewhere except for some lower 80s in warmer portions of the Central Valley.
They will be last to exit the NE zones as a warm front will be last to push through there. Lots of clouds expected there today so high temp in Plentywood only about 80 while it reaches into the low 90s in the SW zones. Thunderstorm chances look minimal this evening with a cold front moving though, not a lot of moisture available. TFJ Forecast challenges in the short term focus on the high temperatures today followed by possible strong thunderstorm outflow winds tonight. Attendant cold front will bring gusty winds back around from the NW on Wednesday - likely raising the need for another Lake Wind Advisory.
756 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Upper troughing firmly in place from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. 00z sounding at CWPL in northern Ontario showed increasing h7-h5 moisture beneath the upper trough in wake of the sfc front so plan is to see increasing showers around daybreak sliding across mainly northwest to central Upper Michigan.
1214 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper trough will provide more comfortable conditions through midweek.
Models continue to show isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Will have low pops over the higher terrain for this. Warmer mid level temperatures will be drifting around the ridge over eastern Colorado today. There is some high cloudiness wrapping around the ridge, but this should mainly be thin so not too much impact. On Wednesday, the ridge will be centered over Arizona/New Mexico with a light to moderate northwesterly flow over the cwa.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 68 86 69 / 10 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 66 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 65 88 68 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 85 64 / 10 10 10 10.
631 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 This morning a large upper level ridge of high pressure centered near the Four Corners Region expanded to the East across the Four State Region. A broad upper level trough of low pressure covered much of the Central and Eastern sections of the country, while another upper level high pressure ridge was situated off the Eastern Seaboard in the Western Atlantic. The system to be concerned about for the rest of the work week and into the weekend was a potential tropical cyclone 3 in the central Gulf of Mexico.
939 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front will linger across the region today.
1038 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Currently - The Florida Keys are situated within a broad belt of tight pressure gradients between an Atlantic ridge to our northeast and a low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update (This Afternoon) - Windy southeasterlies will continue through this afternoon due to the previously mentioned high and low pressure systems. Rain chances will continue to edge slowly downwards as surface through mid level ridging gains dominance over the region. Fresh southeasterly breezes will continue this afternoon for all Florida Keys waters due to a low in the central Gulf of Mexico and a broad Atlantic ridge to the northeast.
This closed low will slowly make a shift eastward toward the Atlantic coast through the short term period as heights continue to rise across Kentucky. High pressure will then be found across the remainder of the state. Temperatures are expected to continue their above-normal trend in response to this building ridge. These clear conditions will once again prompt some good ridge/valley temp differences overnight. Deeper southerly flow across central the Appalachians and points eastward interacts with the upper level energy in place, with convection potentially expanding across the high terrain and into portions of eastern KY. The upper level ridge in the center of the country will flatten somewhat but build east into the OH and TN valleys during the latter part of the week.
Upper level ridge over the central US will begin to drift closer to our region tomorrow, and result in temperatures being a few degrees warmer than today. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, the heat index will be in the mid to upper 90s, with the highest values along and west of I-65. Upper level ridge will continue to build into the region late in the week, with the core of the warmest air aloft staying west of the region.
At the same time, stronger mid/upper flow will allow some moonsonal moisture and energy to spill into the high Plains for the weekend.
254 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Current surface map shows cold front across south central/southwest South Dakota, with high pressure building into the northern plains. High pressure shifts into the eastern Dakotas. With cooler northeast to east low level flow, highs will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday. Warm front lifts back into western South Dakota Wednesday with weak low across southwest South Dakota. Area will remain under flat upper ridge through the end of the week with above average temperatures.
415 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The compact upper low that was responsible for the ongoing thunderstorms will continue to weaken and move eastward this morning, allowing thunderstorms to gradually exit the area by around 15Z. This afternoon, high temperatures will range from the low 90s to around 100 degrees. the latest guidance is actually a couple degrees cooler than previous forecast, which does create some uncertainty on whether we actually will reach heat advisory criteria today. That said, evaporation from last night's rain may push dewpoints a few degrees higher, which would still result in heat index values in the low 100s.
Weather pattern very similar to Mondays except dew points expected to be a little higher today which will bring Heat Index temperatures into the lower 90s northeast and central east Tennessee and mid to even upper 90s southern valley for a couple hours late this afternoon. Weak upper trough along the east coast and Appalachians will keep temperatures in the eastern mountains slightly cooler with clouds forming in the afternoon and scattered late day showers and thunderstorms there. Upper ridging from the Plateau westward will keep afternoon storms at a minimum there so took rain chances out except extreme south and dry conditions as well for the lower elevations of the Tennessee Valley.
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Upper ridge dominates the work week, increasing heat and humidity.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Brownsville radar currently shows a few showers drifting north across the lower Texas Gulf waters. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to triple digits across the west.
Otherwise, high pressure builds into the region with thunderstorm chances sagging south of the forecast area by this afternoon.
Afternoon convection expected once again off the high terrain, moving into valley locations later in the afternoon and evening.
321 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 /Today and Tonight/ An elongated upper level trough extended from near the Great Lakes region down southwestward through the Ozarks and South Plains this morning. However, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s, there will be a risk for strong to perhaps damaging downbursts with any convection that develops. Overnight low temperatures into Wednesday morning should fall into the low to mid 70s.
334 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure is dominant in the region this morning as the next warming trend kicks in. Aloft, the deep warm air over the SW starts to shift into the Midwest as the upper ridge starts to dominate the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. With any activity moving into a ridge axis and the days warming in the midlevels all but neutralizing any lapse rate. The ECMWF is far warmer than the blended forecasts. Dewpoints remain in the mid 70s through the end of the week, resulting in 100F+ heat indices, and limiting the overnight lows to the low to mid 70s as well. Winds light and variable under the ridge and cirrus.
Upper ridging will dominate the fcst area for most of the period. The next chance for precip is Mon with a trof moving into the Pac NW. Upper ridging over the western US will result in VFR conditions into Wed. Thus minimum afternoon humidity each day will favor the 8 to 14 percent range in the lower valleys and Snake Plain, and 10 to 20 percent range for much of the mountains.
High pressure over the southeastern states will continue to strengthen the next several days. This will result warmer and more humid air arriving across Central Indiana on southwesterly winds. Temperatures are expected to get warmer each day as the work week progresses.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, reaching to the mid-90s in the lower valleys and mid-80s in the mountain valleys.
303 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Upper high pressure will persist over the region through the rest of the work week.
/issued 303 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ Upper high pressure will persist over the region through the rest of the work week.
246 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Upper level high will be centered to the southeast of Colorado. Scattered storms are expected to begin shortly afternoon over the higher terrain with isolated storms possible starting mid afternoon east of the higher terrain. The center of the upper level ridge is expected to shift eastward on Wednesday, located near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles at that time.
550 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure is dominant in the region this morning as the next warming trend kicks in. Aloft, the deep warm air over the SW starts to shift into the Midwest as the upper ridge starts to dominate the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. With any activity moving into a ridge axis and the days warming in the midlevels all but neutralizing any lapse rate. The ECMWF is far warmer than the blended forecasts. Dewpoints remain in the mid 70s through the end of the week, resulting in 100F+ heat indices, and limiting the overnight lows to the low to mid 70s as well.
/17/ Today and Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed the region under the influence of an upper trough that extended from the Northeast US to a shear axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. This feature was being impacted by an amplified mid to upper ridge which extended over the plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley. On the surface a trough was observed across the area. Models shows that heights will rise some from the northwest as the mid to upper ridge starts to expand toward the forecast area. Drier air from the expanding mid to upper ridge will bring warmer temps to the north. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s.
A boundary that was sitting from SW to NE across much of the area has mostly dissipated as its upper trough moves away to the northeast. Models continue to start building a surface and upper level ridge over northern Alabama through Wednesday. As this ridging builds over the area during this period, 925 mb temperatures increase to between 25 and 28 degrees.
A combination of slight synoptic cooling along with a return of onshore flow is resulting in cooler temperatures across the region early this morning. Most sites are running around 3-8 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Another short- wave will clip the northern part of the state today and will lead to another afternoon of breezy southwest winds across the higher terrain.
638 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold front southeast across the area.
1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 For the 18/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period as upper level high pressure ridge builds farther into the region.
259 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold front southeast across the area.
354 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals an expansive deep layer mean anticyclone over the North Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward to the Florida Peninsula and Keys.
149 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period due to high pressure across the region. showers and thunderstorms possible again along the higher elevations of east Tennessee.
Another seasonably hot and humid day is in store as high pressure at the surface and aloft become entrenched across the region. A prolonged hot spell will impact the region from mid week into the weekend as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather factor. Generally expect heat index values to range from the upper 90s to around 105 on a daily basis with the highest readings across central Missouri.
1145 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper level trough over the northern Rockies will continue to suppress the ridge today. Another area of low pressure will spin off the main trough later today and then intensify Tuesday off the Pacific Northwest coast. This trough amplifies and helps push the ridge axis to the east opening the gates for a tap to subtropical moisture. The ridge axis center continues to slide slightly east setting up over KS and OK. The ridge becomes less elongated and more compact.
415 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Today and Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed the region under the influence of an upper trough that extended from the Northeast US to a shear axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. This feature was being impacted by an amplified mid to upper ridge which extended over the plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley. On the surface a trough was observed across the area. Models shows that heights will rise some from the northwest as the mid to upper ridge starts to expand toward the forecast area. Drier air from the expanding mid to upper ridge will bring warmer temps to the north. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s.
243 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The subtropical ridge is centered INVOF NE OK and as such deep easterly mid level flow is in place across the CWFA. Meanwhile mid level heights are rising today and the easterly flow will try to keep the mid level theta-e ridge axis in a wwd position and thus PoPs. The pattern changes into the weekend with upper ridge building to w with the possibility of a wwd moving mid level low and or as inverted trof INVOF Sonora, MX brings increase moisture to the Trans Pecos. Mostly this continues to favor PoPs across the wrn CWFA verses drier/warmer to the east.
/Issued 342 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ Mostly clear skies were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning as high pressure continued to set up over the Southern Plains. This dome of high pressure is progged to remain over the region through the work week which will allow for hot and humid conditions to increase each day across the CWA.
258 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017 In general, less coverage of showers/thunderstorms can be expected today as the surface cold front pushes south into northern CO. Southern plains ridging is expected to shift east on Wednesday, likely promoting a good surge of monsoon moisture across southeast WY and western NE.
1244 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois overnight with high pressure building in and a relatively dry air mass in place. Expect minimal cloud cover, light/variable winds, and slightly cooler than normal low temperatures for mid July.
Upper trough over the eastern U. Showers will gradually taper off this evening but may linger overnight across se Ga due to upper troughing. High pressure over the Ozarks Wednesday morning shifts over West TN/ Northern MS/ Northern Alabama by late Wednesday night. At the same time an upper low over VA/NC moves over the outer banks of NC by late Wednesday night. On the backside of the trough axis, and downstream of the upper level ridge drier continential flow will advect into southeast Georgia during the period with a mean nly flow indicated in the mean 925-700 mb layer. Highs will be in the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s along the beaches.
420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 (Today and Tonight) Currently, upper level ridging extends from the central/southern plains west to the southern California coast, with a high centered near southern KS/northern OK. This should suppress convection over most of the northern half of the forecast area, while the slow moving trough extending from northern Mexico into the southern half of Texas will again result in a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.
342 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Mostly clear skies were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning as high pressure continued to set up over the Southern Plains. This dome of high pressure is progged to remain over the region through the work week which will allow for hot and humid conditions to increase each day across the CWA.
A strong upper ridge will then gradually build into the region during the mid-to-late week, bringing hot temperatures and reducing the coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon and evening convection will once again be probable this afternoon as the upper trof continues to influence the pattern.
Large scale upper ridging dominates much of the central and southern CONUS this morning with weak upper troughing extending from New England south to the Mid Atlantic. A weak extension of this upper trough extends into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, represented as weakness in the subtropical ridge.
The Atlc subtropical ridge axis located to our south will produce a deep moist southerly flow with precipitable water near 2 inches over the area. The mid-level trough will cut off over the Carolinas before shifting offshore the southeast coast. This will keep the Atlantic ridge suppressed while moisture remains high enough to support scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms. Though the highest chances (60-70%) remain across the interior, convective initiation on the sea breeze should remain close enough to the coast to support at least scattered chances (50%) there.
Nearly zonal flow will try to amplify with ridge continuing to build across the southern states, but strong waves in the energetic jet stream across the north will continue to flatten the ridge until the end of the week. In the mean time, a strong trough rotating around the northern Canada low will phase with the already enhanced jet over Ontario eventually sending a cold front through lower MI Wednesday and Wednesday night. Persistent westerly flow will continue to pump warm and moist air in from the Midwest and the strong ridge nosing up into that region.
323 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Increasing monsoonal moisture from an easterly wave will bring more clouds and high temperatures a little cooler through Wednesday with a chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.
Then a cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lingering troughiness at the surface and aloft may trigger a few scattered showers or storms mainly over northeast Pa and southern NY during the afternoon on Tuesday. High pressure will then ridge across the area at the surface and aloft Tuesday night and Wednesday with dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. The mid/upper level trough over the eastern CONUS which has been enhancing our deep layer moisture will begin to lift northeastward Tuesday. Part of this trough will become cut off over the mid- Atlantic states Tuesday night and then drift east-southward through Wednesday night.
Breezy and mild conditions will continue through tonight as mid level ridging is positioned overhead. With ample sunshine again today should see temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. The mid level ridge axis begins to shift east tonight, while a longwave trough deepens along the Pacific coast.
524 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 A massive mean layer ridge centered over Central America reaches north into the Upper Plains. Dewpoints are in the lower 50s over southern Florida, so it won't be long before they reach the Keys.
625 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Gradient winds between high pressure over Great Lakes, and intense offshore low, gradually slacken through the weekend.
453 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Surface ridging over the eastern half of the state will be sliding away to the east today allowing easterly winds to veer to the southeast by Sunday morning. Dry air over the region will retreat with onshore flow this morning leading to increasing moisture in the lower levels and an increase in cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the area through tonight. Temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend across the region as upper ridging traverses the area this weekend. Sunday night deeper moisture will begin pooling along and ahead of the incoming cold front.
An upper level low off the Oregon coast will slide southeast into Idaho late tonight. A weaker upper trough will move southeast across the area later Sunday into Sunday night giving an increase in shower activity.
639 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Strong low pressure south of the New England Coast will slowly move further away from the forecast area through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley will move eastward.
Today and Tonight: High pressure at the surface and ridging in the upper levels will contribute to an exceptional day of weather for Saturday.
A passing cold front will bring chances for rain and snow tonight into Sunday.
304 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 Wild weather ride is in store for the forecast area over the next 36 hours with windy conditions today and tonight followed by a strong cold front, more wind and rain changing to snow on Sunday. Winds are developing in tight pressure gradient ahead of the Pacific low/trough which will be headed into the Great Basin today. Winds are expected to remain gusty overnight as the sfc front stands up over western Utah as gets nudged eastward by 120 kt speed max rotating into the base of the long wave trough.