Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FREEZING TEMPS NOTED AS FAR SOUTH DALLAS/ FORT WORTH. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SE AS RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS DEEPER THAN EXPECTED SO PRECIPITATION FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW WITH MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
AS A SURFACE AND TRANSITORY RIDGE ALOFT SHIFT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE CONTINUES EAST INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY. ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. RIDGE BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV TRACKS EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TONIGHT AND ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH EXITS OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA.
A DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD JOG OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING. WEAK RIPPLES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING OVERHEAD AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL APPEARS LIKELY BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
230 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLD STRONG AROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
For high temperatures today, leaned towards the warmer side of a model blend given temperatures yesterday.
640 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
157 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER NORTHERN OHIO.
246 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A QUICK MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Leaned heavily toward the warmer end of MOS guidance for these high temps. With the ridge axis extending across the Gulf coast today, there will be little if any moisture return. Expect dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 30s and RH values bottoming out below 25 percent.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE LINGERING IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. AND NEAR 9 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS WERE DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURE WERE IN THE LOWER 50S WITH ALLIANCE THE COOL SPOT AT 46. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO WRN MT AND IDAHO THROUGH SRN CALIF TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OGA AND IML AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR 80 AT VTN. A LEAD DISTURBANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SERN WY AND NERN CO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN U. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND AS THE PLAINS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
303 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. AND IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
331 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 Other than a few lingering showers in the northern Sierra today, warmer and drier weather along with breezy north winds develop across the region early this week. Upper low is tracking eastward into Nevada. Still enough moisture and instability along with vort energy wrapping around the low for a few showers around the Chico and Oroville areas early this morning. Most of the region will see a return of more sunshine, drier weather, and a little warmer temperatures today. However, clouds and a few showers, and a perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will linger across the northern Sierra into this evening as moisture continues to wrap around the upper low to our east. Warmer and drier conditions develop beginning Tuesday.
As such, trended highs toward the higher guidance which puts readings today in the mid 60s to near 70, highest west of I-65. On Tuesday, plan on max readings in the low to mid 70s.
222 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL LIFT OUT.
309 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODIFY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA ON TUESDAY.
236 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
302 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A warm and breezy day is on tap for the region as the pressure gradient tightens between surface ridging centered over the mid- Atlantic and a strengthening lee trough over the central High Plains. as ridging aloft prevails downstream from southwest CONUS upper low. Eventually the southwest CONUS upper low will open up and lift across the Plains late this week.
ENCROACHING UPON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE DAKOTAS. A COLD FRONT. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL BRING MORE DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE REGION STILL LIES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE WAA ON A STEADY SSW FLOW AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE WEEK. WHICH IS GOING TO ALLOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
459 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THIS PCPN CHANCES COME INTO PLAY LATE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING.
1136 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A RELATIVELY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG THE CALIF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND AS THE MODELS PROJECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SMALL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS PROJECTED TO ROLL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH NEVADA ON MONDAY BEFORE SPLITTING ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHEARS INTO TWO PIECES. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HEAD SOUTH TO SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS MT/ID/WY.
219 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
101 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING JUST OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK.
TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR BELOW FREEZING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
304 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NOSES IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
359 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 An upper level low over the Great Basin will lift northeastward today bringing several rounds of showers through Tuesday morning. Improving conditions are expected Tuesday morning as the weather system departs to the east but some showers will continue, especially across the higher terrain.
357 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER NORTHERN OHIO.
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CORE OF AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE TAHOE BASIN WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSHING EAST OVER UTAH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.
A large upper trough/low will reside over the southwest U. At the surface, a lee trough will be located to our west.
105 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A QUICK MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
203 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL LIFT OUT.
A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. MODEST RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL AMPLIFY AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER NEVADA DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORE CORNERS AREA.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through late Monday afternoon as short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure breaking down as it continues to push eastward across the Central Plains during the period. Warmer temperatures are likely for lows tonight as a prevailing, and at times gusty, southerly flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas overnight and Monday. Precip chances return to western Kansas as early as Tuesday night as medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure deepening across the Intermountain West.
441 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS HIGH INTO TOMORROW. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS WEEK, WITH THE LOWER VALUES IN THE LAKE REGION. OVERALL, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WEEK, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES, AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
POPS BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. THINKING THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 WHERE FUELS ARE LIKELY THE MOST CURED.
MAIN ISSUES REMAIN THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW LATER THIS EVENING DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S VALUES WITH A FEW PLACES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVELS. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
209 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
The well mixed near surface layer will start out mild this morning as compared to the last few day, and bottom out in the mid to upper 50s before warming steadily into the low 80s by the afternoon.
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE AWAY TO THE EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO GO FROM EAST TODAY TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGHING OVER AZ/NM LATE THIS WEEK WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO SETX.
1139 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEEPENED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KMCK AND TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
634 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.
333 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
404 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A NICE FALL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
515 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
439 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
119 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
THE LOWER OWYHEE RIVER BASIN LOOKS TO GET ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY AS THE ARC OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN PIVOTS OVER SE OREGON BEFORE HEADING BACK OVER FAR SW/CENTRAL ID THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER IDAHO THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO COOLER NNW FLOW WITH DECREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NE FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
TO THE LOWER 50S IN HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS. WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. SLIGHTLY COOLER DEWPOINTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THEN MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA OF CALIFORNIA/NEVADA DROPS SOUTHEAST TO CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER TUESDAY.
A look at soundings from that region indicates that the column becomes saturated in the mid and upper-levels of the troposphere, but there is only meager lift and alot of very dry air in the lowest 10kft to overcome for any area to get measurable rainfall.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER LOW SPINS OVER CA/NV. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WEAK ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH SPLITS ON TUESDAY. WHILE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TRENDED WARMER. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL FRONTS/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS THEN SHOW THE SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH CAA STRATOCU AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
603 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. AND IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
626 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
435 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US THIS MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN 1 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CURRENT WEST COAST TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AND TAPPING INTO SOME MOIST GULF AIR BY MIDWEEK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
340 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NEVADA TODAY AND A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR YUMA TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
642 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A NICE FALL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
254 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS WELL.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL BRING MORE DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS (ACROSS NW OK) WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ACROSS S OK AND N TX). BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST U. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INITIALLY WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NORTHEAST.
355 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MODEST RIDGING WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MOVING BY ALOFT.
255 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUS INTO THE BOUNDARY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE A PERTURBATION EJECTS OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH. A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED. DECENT CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH MARCHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRI/FRI NIGHT. COOLER AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND POSSIBLY STALL NEAR OR OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SURGING AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWERING PRESSURE IN THE LOWER GULF OF MEXICO TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENTS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF.
A RELATIVELY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG THE CALIF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND AS THE MODELS PROJECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SMALL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS PROJECTED TO ROLL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH NEVADA ON MONDAY BEFORE SPLITTING ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHEARS INTO TWO PIECES. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HEAD SOUTH TO SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS MT/ID/WY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Highs should top out 7 to 10F deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55.
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR COUNTIES. OUR COUNTIES WILL SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SUNDAY. CHILLY AIR IS POURING INTO MONTANA BENEATH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. A LITTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.