Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 (Today and tonight) The main item of interest the next 24 hours will be a surface cold front that will affect the area, and convective chances associated with the front. Temperatures will be cooler again today, and roughly a few degrees higher than normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 90s across the northern Big Country, to the mid 90s elsewhere. Temperatures tonight will also be cooler behind the front, with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s across the Big Country, to around 70 along the I-10 corridor.
351 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Impressive temperature and moisture gradient setup across lower Mi this afternoon as a cold front pushes southeast through the region. For the remainder of the evening, expect cooler and drier conditions within the northwest flow regime, as temperatures drop into the low 70s by sunset and dewpoints into the upper 50s. Even cooler temperatures emerge in the Thumb and eastern portions of the CWA as a lake breeze pushes inland off of Lake Huron. Mainly dry conditions persist overnight, with lows dipping into the low 50s for a majority of the CWA, although could see a few upper 40 degree readings near the Lake Huron shoreline. Clearing trend emerges for the afternoon hours, with mainly sunny skies aside from diurnal cumulus development as high pressure takes hold.
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will over through the region this evening and stall keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. A cold front is still projected to slide over the region this evening and stall under zonal flow aloft. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
We may still have enough CAPE in place by the time it reaches our northwest counties to sustain thunderstorms, but severe potential will be dampened by the low lapse rates and bulk shear values that exist over our area.
We're still sitting under mostly ridging throughout the atmosphere as the frontal boundary remains off to our west closer to the Mississippi River. We could see some weak early day activity with the pre-frontal trough in the AM hours but coverage of any showers should be fairly limited, with the best chances being in northeast TN and southwest VA.
1249 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will over through the region this evening and stall keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. A cold front is still projected to slide over the region this evening and stall under zonal flow aloft. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
The big weather concern will be with an area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC currently has a 70 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in 48 hours and a 80 percent chance of development in 5 days. There is still a lot of uncertainty if and when this low may become a tropical cyclone as well as the actual track and intensity as it tracks northeast toward the Florida peninsula.
(Thursday through Wednesday) The showers and storms will exit the region Thursday morning as the cold front exits the region.
300 PM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A ridging pattern will bring warmer temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average through Thursday.
700mb temperatures associated with the ridge remain on the cool side given the time of year, but with mostly clear skies and full sunshine, expect temperatures to be +10F on Thursday from what they were on Wednesday.
924 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure will build into the region today through Thursday.
A slow moving cold front will continue to approach from the west, and a decaying line of showers and embedded thunderstorms can be seen tracking over NW MS and W TN this evening.
Warm afternoons will continue through tomorrow for the interior as high pressure slowly shifts inland. High pressure overhead will continue to move eastward as a mid to upper-level trough approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. Multi-model guidance continues to show this trough and associated cold front will be rather wet.
751 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Overnight: Upper ridging stretches from the southeast U. into the Gulf of Mexico while an upper low/trough north of the Bahamas eases to the northeast. An area of low pressure with showers and storms near the Yucatan early this evening has an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. Toward the end of the week a low pressure approaches with some heavy rainfall and stronger winds going into the week.
721 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Aviation Just a few lingering patches of light rain are being produced in the vicinity of a cold front in southern Michigan this evening. Otherwise it will be mostly dry through much of tonight until another midlevel trough produces light rain (if not virga) around daybreak Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected through tonight and tomorrow morning as a high pressure ridge overhead gradually loosens it grip on the area. Clouds should remain scattered but increase in the late morning to early afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the west. We're still sitting under mostly ridging throughout the atmosphere as the frontal boundary remains off to our west closer to the Mississippi River. We could see some weak early day activity with the pre-frontal trough in the AM hours but coverage of any showers should be fairly limited, with the best chances being in northeast TN and southwest VA.
942 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will over through the region this evening and stall keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday.
Also, isolated showers may form within the lower clouds bands which will likely be brief and have little impact at the air terminals. /issued 243 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure persists across Deep South Texas with the remnants of the EastPac Agatha trying to kick up a new disturbance near the Yucatan by late week.
Overall, we should be a bit warmer tomorrow morning than we were this morning so if you had no issues with frost this morning you should be fine. The same upper low that brought precipitation to the region a few days ago will drop a bit further south. This is due to a two cutoff lows over the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Manitoba while a high pressure system sits over Alberta. This Omega blocking pattern is going to cause very little variation to the weather into the weekend.
West-northwest winds will diminish as well but remain in the 5 to 15 kt range overnight keeping temps a tad warmer than last night. Tonight, expect a weak cold front to push through, which will lead to a bit of variability across the region in high temperatures for Thursday.
607 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 The upper level ridge is breaking down and will allow a cold front to sag southward into Central PA early tonight.
739 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 The upper level ridge is breaking down and will allow a cold front to sag southward into Central PA early tonight.
1008 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 An upper level low east of the Florida Peninsula has aided in shower and thunderstorm development across the mainland, but the best dynamics have remained north of the Florida Keys, and left the island chain in a largely mesoscale dominated regime. A cumulus cloud line developed earlier across the Lower Keys, and produced multiple waterspouts near Key West and some rainfall in a few island communities. Marine observation platforms are currently recording winds ranging from 5 to 10 knots across the reef, and temperatures are currently in the lower 80s across the island chain. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic and weak troughing over the Bahamas will remain through Thursday evening.
614 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure will build into the region today through Thursday.
739 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will over through the region this evening and stall keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
607 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to feed northwest into West Central Texas, ahead of an approaching cold front. Models also showing some more scattered showers and storms for Thursday morning behind the cold front, especially across the southern half of the area. Otherwise, Cooler behind the front with highs on Thursday in the 70s and 80s.
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front currently stretched across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push across our area increasing chances for more surface based convection through this evening. A cooling trend starts Thursday afternoon on the back side of the cold front a north winds bring in cooler than seasonably temperatures. Thursday afternoon MaxT's are forecast to be mild and perhaps 10 degrees cooler than average for early June.
A closed upper-level low will continue to rotate over southern Canada for the foreseeable future as troughing and an associated jet max will progress overhead late tonight. Thus, forecast low temperatures remain in the low to mid 40s across interior northern Michigan tonight and frost development is not expected. Main cold front is holding over the Thumb area this afternoon in response to a weak wave that developed along this boundary. Secondary cold front has reached our far NW CWA. providing a reinforcing shot of much cooler and drier air into our region tonight.
Might see a few locations dip to near freezing again. ----BMickelson Previous discussion: Stacked low pressure over central Canada allowed for a NW flow over the CWA today that will continue again on Thursday. The other concern will be the low temperatures again tonight.
Thanks to a cold front that will meander through the CWA tomorrow it will not be as hot the next couple of days. The risk of a cold front this time of year is the threat for strong to severe storms that comes along with it. We may still have enough CAPE in place by the time it reaches our northwest counties to sustain thunderstorms, but severe potential will be dampened by the low lapse rates and bulk shear values that exist over our area.
305 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A cold front stretches from Northwest Arkansas to Western Kentucky this morning.
Upper ridge across the Intermountain Region will weaken as several waves push through on Friday.
(Today) The cold front that will bring us weather later today is currently stretched from the OH Valley back into the Souther Plains. The GFS forecast sounding saturates the profile faster and holds onto the low level cap longer than the NAM.
GEFS 500 mb spaghetti plots and the ensemble-based WPC Cluster Analysis tool show high confidence in the mid-range forecast period being driven by a surface to 500 mb closed low pressure over far northwestern Ontario and northeastern Manitoba. Drier conditions return to central and western Upper Michigan Friday as northwesterly flow limits available moisture advection and creates cooler temperatures to end this work week. Even with these gustier winds on Friday, the cooler temperatures will help to keep fire weather concerns limited to the interior west. A surface to 500 mb low-amplitude ridge is progged to pass over the north-central US Friday night with very light winds.
Northeasterly to easterly winds should keep highs cool and seasonal today, generally in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday-Thursday Night: Very comfortable and pleasant conditions under the influence of weak high pressure centered to our west and southwest. Thursday night will be mostly clear, a good night for sleeping, with lows outside Chicago in the lower 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in interior northern Illinois, and mid to upper 50s in and near Chicago.
301 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A slow moving cold front will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances today. Dry weather returns tonight through the weekend under building high pressure.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity increases tomorrow ahead of Friday's subtle cold front. Expect overnight lows in the low 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
207 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Satellite imagery shows a ridge axis over the northern Rockies with scattered mid & high clouds over the west half of our cwa. OR energy will help to initiate scattered showers and a few t-storms especially close to the mountains and foothills this afternoon and evening, while easterly surface winds and capping east of the ridge axis keep most lower elevations dry. Tonight, there appears to be enough mid level moistening and elevated instability for some showers to spread across the lower elevations along a mid level warm front. near or slightly cooler than early June normals. With the high PWATs, showers and thunderstorms could be efficient rain producers.
A strong upper level low exists over northern Ontario and a slight ridge is in place over the Intermountain West. Upper level disturbances moving in from the northwest along the ridge may trigger rain showers over the Sandhills. The western upper level ridge begins to flatten and zonal flow develops over Nebraska.
This will bring the slight chance (15-25%) for some isolated light showers from I69 south to the border, with the higher odds favored towards the border. Temperatures rise in the low to mid 70s with additional aid from mostly sunny skies.
Otherwise, dry, cooler and less humid air will persist over the next few days. Highs today and Friday will primarily be in the lower to middle 70s, except a bit cooler near Lake Michigan.
(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Upper level ridge is currently over parts of Texas and Mexico will build into the northern Gulf coast. The associated high pressure with the ridge will remain over the area through at least the weekend.
Behind this midlevel wave, high pressure will build in from the west and skies will become mostly sunny apart from typical diurnal cumulus development through Friday night. Despite the abundant sunshine, temperatures will stay a touch cooler than normal with highs barely tapping into the low 70s.
06Z obs showing an area of high pressure in eastern Colorado which has led to light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies for most of the region. For today it should be another relatively cool day for this time of year across southwest Kansas and surface and mid level winds should stay generally east to northeast as the clockwise rotation around the high pressure center moves into central Kansas. More sunshine should be expected for areas from Pratt to Hays and the highest temperatures will be there with upper 70s. Temperatures will be more in the lower 70s for our southwest zones as the clouds and east to southeast winds will be present for much of the day. Elsewhere the high pressure center will be more into eastern Kansas and winds at the surface should be out of the south.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along and south of the boundary amidst moderate lapse rates and moisture-rich air with most unstable CAPES near 3,000 J/kg in the low and mid levels. However, for Thursday, chances of precipitation will diminish through the day from north to south as the aforementioned front pushes southward out of AR and drier, cooler airs works into the state from the north. Thursday night will be precipitation-free as weak high pressure in the form of northwest flow prevails aloft and surface ridging builds. Dry conditions with mostly sunny skies and somewhat below normal high temperatures are on tap for Friday as high pressure remains over the region.
1107 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will over through the region this evening and stall keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. A cold front currently across nrn PA to nrn OH should drift swd overnight, as the flow aloft remains nearly parallel to the front. High pressure will continue to move in behind the front with a dry forecast expected on Friday and cooler high temperatures. High pressure in continued quasi-zonal flow aloft will then provide mostly dry weather through the weekend, with seasonable but slowly warming temperatures.
This flow is govern by the interactions between a high pressure to our north and a trough to our east. Although there are some components working against this system, it is expected to become a tropical cyclone going into the weekend as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation from this activity will be mainly confined to mountain areas, where even a bit of light snow could mix in for a time at the highest elevations.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon through the evening, primarily along and south of the actual slow- moving synoptic cold front bisecting the CWA this afternoon (mainly southeastern MO/southwestern IL) with SBCAPE and MUCAPE exceeding 1000 to near 2000 J/kg across these locations and a mid- level perturbation/MCV currently over KS/OK progged to propagate eastward over MO. Weak mid-level height falls/ascent leading an upper-level trough traversing the Midwest tonight into Thursday, may be able to induce a few additional showers near the reflection of the cold front at 850-hPa advancing slowly eastward, but instability should wane through the first half of the night, limiting the potential for thunderstorms beyond that point. Pfahler The surface/low-level anticyclone will remain positioned across the mid-Mississippi River Valley on Friday, anchoring the seasonably cool airmass to the region.
339 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Cooler with a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly across Northeast PA. Showers end tonight with cooler and drier weather heading into the weekend. 345 AM Update: A cold front is currently making its way through CNY early this morning with drier air advecting in. With 850 mb temperatures under 10C, high temperatures Friday will only get into the low to mid 70s even with mostly sunny skies. Cool, but dry high pressure system will move over the region for this weekend.
322 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Temperatures and timing the highest chances for precipitation will provide the main forecast challenges. Temperatures should be warmer, topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Upper level ridge will continue to break down over the next couple of days and this will allow a short wave from the north to move down into the region, bringing along with a surface frontal feature. Upper level winds ahead of the trough will become southwesterly and push any tropical development near the Yucatan off to the northeast and toward Florida and thus no impacts for the Lake Charles forecast area.
354 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A strong cold front will cross the area tonight and bring some severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High pressure returns shortly thereafter heading into the weekend. Cdfnt extends southwest from a low pressure center over northeast Ohio. Despite the fast flow, very localized flooding can't be completely ruled out over the highly urbanized areas of DC to Baltimore given possibility of intense, but brief, rainfall rates. Weak high pressure builds gradually over the region Fri through the weekend providing fair weather conditons and pleasant temperatures.
After sunset the low level jet will increase with 40 to 50 knot bulk shear and MLCAPE values still around 1500-2000 J/kg. The threat for tornadoes remains small at this time, but the environment may be conducive for low level directional shear especially after sunset when the low level winds pick up.
310 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Early this morning a cold front bisected the CWFA near the Ohio River, with just a few showers lingering east of the MS River.
Cold front will move through the entire area by this evening, ushering out any linger showers and thunderstorms along with it by midnight.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 65 83 60 85 / 60 50 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 63 79 57 82 / 70 60 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 62 80 57 82 / 60 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 61 78 51 80 / 60 60 10 0 0.
Weak mid level ridging overhead will continue to dampen PoPs across the area this afternoon and lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 90s once again. Low temperatures tonight are forecast in the low 70s.
High temperatures today will range from the middle to upper 70s, which is a few degrees cooler than normal for the beginning of June. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than normal today, but will top out in the low to middle 70s. Similarly, overnight lows will be on the cooler side in the low to middle 50s. High pressure remains in control for the end of the week into the weekend with temperatures near normal values through the weekend.
1211 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front currently stretched across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push across our area increasing chances for more surface based convection through this evening. A cooling trend starts Thursday afternoon on the back side of the cold front a north winds bring in cooler than seasonably temperatures. Thursday afternoon MaxT's are forecast to be mild and perhaps 10 degrees cooler than average for early June.
This should push temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. Over the weekend, the upper level pattern gradually becomes more zonal, with several small perturbations moving through the area as an upper low pushes into the Pac NW. This cooler temperature pattern may provide some relief from significant severe risk, but there will likely be at least a few severe storms through this period.
418 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Friday. This will lead to drier and cooler conditions for the end of the work week.
1256 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to feed northwest into West Central Texas, ahead of an approaching cold front. Models also showing some more scattered showers and storms for Thursday morning behind the cold front, especially across the southern half of the area. Otherwise, Cooler behind the front with highs on Thursday in the 70s and 80s.
KHUT seems to have the highest chances so will go LIFR with tempo group.
Elsewhere, sufficiently thick stratus within chilly NE flow should continue to support on/off very light showers and drizzle at times before this stratus layer thins out by late morning as surface ridging draws closer. Isolated convective initiation is most likely this afternoon along the higher terrain of NM within the moist axis, although uncertainty blossoms tonight regarding how well this activity can sustain itself as it reaches the state line while outrunning the instability axis. Aloft, broad ridging may prove more hostile to ascent overall, so this along with the drier CAMs warrant keeping PoPs below the NBM's likelies for now.
Generally dry conditions tonight as southwest flow increases ahead of an upper trough. Any shower activity that spills over into Baker county will generally be across the higher terrain and measurable precipitation is not expected. Upper ridge moving eastward through our CWA today will be followed by increasingly moist southwest flow aloft Thursday, leading to showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
159 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A cold front will over through the region this evening and stall keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. A cold front currently across nrn PA to nrn OH should drift swd overnight, as the flow aloft remains nearly parallel to the front. High pressure will continue to move in behind the front with a dry forecast expected on Friday and cooler high temperatures. High pressure in continued quasi-zonal flow aloft will then provide mostly dry weather through the weekend, with seasonable but slowly warming temperatures.