Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH COLDER AIR AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR JOHNSON COUNTY BEGINNING TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING IS STILL LOOKING GOOD. MOST CAN EXPECT WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDS AT TIMES WITH WINDS BEING STRONGER FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.
/Issued 220 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016/ Warm and dry conditions continue with high pressure over the region.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL MAINLY AROUND 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UPPER LOW MOVING FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
738 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 DECREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
Another warm day is in store with highs in the lower to mid 80s. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures as low level southerly flow increases. 21 (Tuesday night through Monday) The current ridging over the southwestern U.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BY THE EVENING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT AND ON WED AS THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO EXIT. SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA COULD SEE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX - RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.
529 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO CANADA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT WHILE MOVING EAST INTO MONTANA. ON TUESDAY UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW 60S IN YUMA TO MID 70S FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND LEOTI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AS CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN VERY LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
/ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT.
THE LATEST 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS NEARING CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION AT 02Z.
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
927 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN/EVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF, IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AMOUNTS FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND 00Z.
748 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 25KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR WITH SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
1146 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 911 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ THE LATEST 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS NEARING CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION AT 02Z.
521 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL CAA SET TO START EARLY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST WY BY 18Z TUE. SO WE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL CAA SET TO START EARLY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST WY BY 18Z TUE. SO WE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
815 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT BUT CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KGAG/KWWR DURING THE LATE EVENING.
638 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS LOW HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WIND FIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1144 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT BUT CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH.
CURRENT EAST TO WEST BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST IOWA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WORKING NORTHWARD. AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AN INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. SO LEANED ON THE MUCH COOLER NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY GET TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING WET AT MID AND LATE WEEK FOCUS ON A CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
638 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONTAL ZONE OFF TO THE NORTH MAY SAG INTO THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT BY WEDNESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
307 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. MARINE STRATUS IS INFILTRATING THE COAST AND NEAR COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF THETAE RIDGE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KT. STOUT MID LVL RIDGE DVLPMNT XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF WRN US TROUGHING THIS PD W/MUCH ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY UNTIL LT PD.
THE INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WEST HAS MORE STABLE AIR AND THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS.
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. MOST OF THE LOW LANDS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TODAY WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY. IN THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S. UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL. BEST FORCING WILL BE FROM THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES IN THE HIGHLANDS OF THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE BULK OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S. SO THIS WILL RAISE THE LOWER LIMIT ON THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
THIS PCPN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A H8 WARM FRONT. A SHORT- WAVE TROF AND THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND DRY NE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE H8 WARM FRONT IS EXPECT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR SW COUNTIES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS.
THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY DECREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SO QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO THEN BECOME ABSORBED IN THE DEEPENING LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DIFFLUENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA BUT DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THEM BEFORE MAKING ACROSS THE RIVER.
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA.
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. AIR TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WILL INCREASE AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS THANKS TO DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
Some of the high precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho Valley and Big Country.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S.
OWING TO MODERATELY STRONG DYNAMICS EMERGING FROM MID-LEVEL TROF.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS IN THE MID-WEST. TAX RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD EASTWARD. H500 RIDGE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.
AND ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS FROM THE SW U. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS.
High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for most locations. So temperatures should only climb into the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. The troughing over the western states through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley.
QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
Meanwhile disturbances will track north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper level trough anchored over the desert southwest. Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper level ridge over the southeastern U. and an upper level trough that will remain stationed out west. Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.
428 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AM WILL PERPETUATE THE LOW DEWPOINT AIRMASS WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO INHIBIT HEATING. WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER AFTERNOON RH. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A TROWAL FEATURE LINGERING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD.
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. AS ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS IN THE MID-WEST. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS MID WEEK FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
641 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
ALL OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING PWATS TO REACH VALUES OVER 200% OF NORMAL. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE LOW AND BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP TODAY UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES NEWRD ACROSS OUR CWA AND ITSELF BECOMES THE FOCUS OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. DRYING BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST DIGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT.
MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH BEST PART OF MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH AND/OR OUT OF CWFA.
THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 80 OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND MAY NEED TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED.
331 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015 The synoptic warm front was across eastern Nebraska early this morning with an outflow boundary across eastern Kansas. The upper low over the desert southwest early this morning is forecast by all the models to move northeast today and tonight as another upper trough digs south in the western CONUS.
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY.
353 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH BEST MOISTURE LIKELY DIRECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SE. WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SO QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WELL TO OUR S A WARM FRONT WILL BE SET UP FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER MT/WY E THROUGH IA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO OUR S SHIFTS N INTO W UPPER MI.
The eastern Permian Basin into the Lower trans Pecos appear to be the most likely areas for convective development this afternoon. The dryline will remain over the region as another ua trough drops south along the west coast to replace the one to eject today.
Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region and will continue to do so in the short term period. a degree or so warmer than yesterday.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U. MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION AND THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY TO OUT WEST. THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND THE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE SHORT-TERM AT 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30-35 KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LOW-LEVEL WARMING WITH 850 TEMPS ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN INHERITED FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE SEE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
330 AM PDT Tue May 5 2015 Dry weather will continue through early Wednesday before a cooler and more unsettled pattern begins later Wednesday into the end of the work week, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the mountains.
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY OR SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SO INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS TODAY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE 00Z DATA HAVING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW EJECTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THUS COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NERN GULF RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH BEST MOISTURE LIKELY DIRECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SE. WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY -- PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE -- AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT SE WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FOG DEVELOPED TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS SUCH AS THE DEKALB, PAINT ROCK, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN GUNTERSVILLE AND BRIDGEPORT.