Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
POP orientation looks good in associated with the closed upper low spinning across the Middle Red River Valley this morning. Cannot rule out a few lightning strikes as well, again across our northeast and east half through early evening before the dynamics associated with the trough shifts eastward.
Above normal temperatures can be expected today with high pressure building across the region.
626 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through today with temperatures moderating. A low pressure system deepens over the Gulf Coast today, then moves east across the southeastern U. but mostly just seeing cirrus over the Blue Ridge right now. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean shifts east today as low pressure organizes near Mobile Bay. Temperatures should warm into the upper 50s to low 60s for the mountains, and into upper 60s/near 70 east of the Blue Ridge. A cutoff low over the Gulf states, as well as high pressure off the Carolina coast, both funnel moist air into our region on Wednesday.
357 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Quiet weather today and tonight with a weak ridge transiting the region. Heavier mid level moisture moves in overnight with a few light showers over the higher terrain along the Wyoming border. Expect mostly sprinkles to light rain showers in the lower valleys ans light snow in the mountains Wednesday through the day and overnight before the system exits the area to the southeast. Look for light accumulations of snow with only a couple inches likely over the higher mountain passes along and west of the Continental Divide.
Last night's weak cold front will push across the waters through this morning, with stronger winds developing in its wake as dry air rushes into South Texas. Relative humidity values will plummet to the teens and 20s across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country, and into the low 20s to mid 30s along the Coastal Bend. The clear skies and light winds will lead to fairly cooler temperatures tonight, with lows in the 40s across the area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Wednesday as onshore flow redevelops and starts to bring warmer air and more moisture back to the area.
A trough will move across the area today for showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms.
Forecast highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday look good.
An upper trough will bring increased clouds to our area today along with a chance of precipitation north of Fresno County.
With a good amount of sunshine today, high temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday in most areas despite the passage of the cold front.
Currently, west/northwest flow aloft with a broad upper level ridge moving over the Rockies. Area of low pressure over far south central Canada results in a west/southwest sfc wind across the region early this morning. For today, a quasi-zonal flow aloft sets up as the aforementioned upper level ridge develops east into the Great Plains. Will continue to go with the higher percentile numbers of the NBM guidance for highs. An embedded S/WV trough will approach the region later today, moving through tonight/Wed AM. However, will need to monitor road sfc temperatures as that should be the main factor whether we will have a window of light freezing rain or not. Cold FROPA for Wednesday in the wake of the above mentioned wave, with gusting northwest winds and cooler temperatures the main result.
Surface pressure is falling as a lee side trough deepens over Southern Alberta. It will be mild today, but cooler temperatures and more scattered rain or snow showers are expected on Wednesday. With an upper level disturbance combined with an upper level trof moving into the region, expect a chance for rain/snow showers along the divide and across Southwest MT today. Strong winds still look on track east of the divide over the Rockies and in the Cut Bank/Conrad areas, thus the high wind warning will continue. Afternoon temperatures today will be just a touch warmer than yesterday for most areas. Any precipitation will be light, and afternoon temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
514 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Current surface map places weak trof across western South Dakota. With flat upper level ridge over the plains, thermal profiles peak this this afternoon. Quiet weather for the remainder of the week as upper level trof slides east.
/NF/ Today through Tonight: A well-developed low pressure system can be seen on satellite imagery spinning over the northeastern corner of Texas early this morning. A squall line which developed yesterday evening is racing southeast across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana, with a broader area of rain extending north back towards the low's center. As can be seen on regional radars, additional rainfall is occurring directly beneath the core of the low, so rain chances will return to parts of the area today and tonight as the system continues eastward. With colder temperatures aloft and dry slot clearing allowing for some daytime heating at the surface, some thunderstorms with small hail and brief gusty winds may be possible close to the center of the low as well.
It will be mild today, but cooler temperatures and more scattered rain or snow showers are expected on Wednesday. With an upper level disturbance combined with an upper level trof moving into the region, expect a chance for rain/snow showers along the divide and across Southwest MT today. Strong winds still look on track east of the divide over the Rockies and in the Cut Bank/Conrad areas, thus the high wind warning will continue. Afternoon temperatures today will be just a touch warmer than yesterday for most areas. Any precipitation will be light, and afternoon temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
Moisture advection is slowly ramping up ahead of the trough currently located in the Lower MS Valley is providing mid/high overcast skies. Drier air lingering in the lower levels are keeping much of the precip from reaching the ground, with a few exceptions. With this set up, will also see a gradient of temps, with upper 60s north of the TN River and the lower 60s south of the river. Coverage will slowly decrease as the low moves eastward, however wrap around precip will keep rainfall well into the day on Wednesday (before finally tapering off in the afternoon).
(Today and tonight) Slightly cooler conditions will be present across the region for this afternoon. Tonight looks rather uneventful with lows in the lower 40s.
611 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Slightly cooler conditions will be present across the region for this afternoon. Tonight looks rather uneventful with lows in the lower 40s.
Dry weather is expected Wednesday when low pressure is forecast to track to the south. Showers return later this week ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. This is most visible in the lower water vapor imagery (Channel 10). Under a south to southwest low level flow, temperatures should rise to the low and mid 60s in most locations. The weak boundary is expected to dissipate by tonight as high pressure centered to the east becomes dominant. Low pressure developing near the gulf coast is forecast to remain far enough south to keep precip out of the ILN area tonight through Wednesday. For Wednesday night, mid level closed low is expected to stay to our south and east.
1010 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 An area of high pressure will continue to keep conditions dry through Wednesday.
546 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 A weak cold front crosses the area today, followed by high pressure. Low pressure will track south of the region tonight.
/Issued 413 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022/ Satellite imagery shows a mid-level, cutoff, low-pressure system organized in the eastern Southern Plains, moving into the Mississippi River Valley. things begin to dry out Wed night as a weak high pressure ridge build in for Thu, but this dry spell will be short lived. The GFS opting for a more robust and deeper parent closed low deepening over the Great Lakes and the Euro keeping a more subdued solution taking the low over the Ohio Valley.
The forecast challenge is temperature within the low level WAA regime today in southwest mixing winds, as well as on Wednesday when low level thermal advection may be described as weak CAA or neutral air advection when mixing winds become northwesterly, and fire weather concerns. This low level WAA sequence will persist throughout today on southwesterly component mixing layer winds. A cold frontal passage is forecast in the middle of tonight, turning winds around to a northwest direction and breezy/windy at times. Mid level ridging is progged to build across the region this weekend as an upper trough shifts onshore and into the southwestern interior of the CONUS.
729 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
Moisture content in the lowest levels of the atmosphere have not yet reached a high enough concentration for precip falling out of clouds at 11- 12kft to make it all the way to the ground south of Citrus Co so far.
A broad upper level ridge over the western CONUS will continue moving east today, and strong warm air advection will bring in a much warmer air mass to the region. A weak low pressure system will skirt across the International Border tonight into Wednesday, and this may result in some light mixed precipitation tonight with a few lingering rain showers Wednesday.
455 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Today through Tonight: A well-developed low pressure system can be seen on satellite imagery spinning over the northeastern corner of Texas early this morning. A squall line which developed yesterday evening is racing southeast across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana, with a broader area of rain extending north back towards the low's center. As can be seen on regional radars, additional rainfall is occurring directly beneath the core of the low, so rain chances will return to parts of the area today and tonight as the system continues eastward. With colder temperatures aloft and dry slot clearing allowing for some daytime heating at the surface, some thunderstorms with small hail and brief gusty winds may be possible close to the center of the low as well.
651 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected today.
942 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry high pressure will remain over the area, before a moist low pressure system advances from the southwest and increases rain chances tonight into Wednesday.
652 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry high pressure will remain over the area, before a moist low pressure system advances from the southwest and increases rain chances tonight into Wednesday.
Tonight temperatures will drop to near freezing or freezing and a dry day is expected Wednesday.
The Florida Keys remain on the western periphery of a deep layered ridge centered out over the western North Atlantic. In addition, given the clocking of winds to the east and southeast through the day, feel that temperatures remain on tap to reach into the lower 80s.
Temperatures will trend seasonably cooler over the weekend.
536 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Quiet weather today and tonight with a weak ridge transiting the region. Heavier mid level moisture moves in overnight with a few light showers over the higher terrain along the Wyoming border. Expect mostly sprinkles to light rain showers in the lower valleys ans light snow in the mountains Wednesday through the day and overnight before the system exits the area to the southeast. Look for light accumulations of snow with only a couple inches likely over the higher mountain passes along and west of the Continental Divide.
A cold front will brush northeastern Arizona on Wednesday and Wednesday night with chances of rain or snow showers mainly from The Grand Canyon to the White Mountains and northward.
532 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (Today) Scattered areas of light rain persist early this morning on backside of upper low, currently moving into the ARKLATX region.
519 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
600 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure will extend westward across North Carolina through today.
On the backside of the departing H500 trough as it exits through the ArkLaTex region, rapid height rises will result in a diurnal up tick in SW winds along with a lee low that will develop in the afternoon in SE Colorado.
Light mountain snows are expected as well, with 1-3 inches across the higher mountain terrain. Highs are a little cooler, yet still topping out in the 40s and 50s. Mostly clear skies Wednesday night will allow for lows to dip into the teens and 20s, with slightly warmer lows further west.
951 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through today with temperatures moderating. A low pressure system deepens over the Gulf Coast today, then moves east across the southeastern U. This trend could also have a small downward trend in the high temperature forecast in these two regions as well. but mostly just seeing cirrus over the Blue Ridge right now. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean shifts east today as low pressure organizes near Mobile Bay. Temperatures should warm into the upper 50s to low 60s for the mountains, and into upper 60s/near 70 east of the Blue Ridge. A cutoff low over the Gulf states, as well as high pressure off the Carolina coast, both funnel moist air into our region on Wednesday.
Stronger south to southwesterly flow will usher in a warmer airmass, but somewhat less confident on how the cloud cover may impact the warming. Kept temperatures warmer here with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will be in the lower 50s across northern WI where more cloud cover is currently expected.
359 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Low pressure near the Gulf Coast will move northeastward towards the Carolinas tonight, allowing for rain to return into the forecast late tonight through Wednesday.
The upper low currently centered over Northern Louisiana, will move across the area this evening through the overnight hours.
Slightly cooler conditions tomorrow as a weather disturbance moves through, with isolated showers across southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
Moisture starved cold front dives southeastward across the region Wednesday, causing winds to gradually shift to the northwest. In addition to this, should see temperatures be a touch cooler though still well above average for this time of year.
* TEMPS REST OF WEEK: The passage of an upper level trough Thu will pull some cooler air back across the region - but not that cold. * THU/FRI STORM SYSTEM: hit, miss, glancing blow? The GFS and EC remain in good agreement with lifting an upper level trough northeast out of the desert southwest Wed night, pushing across the mid mississippi river valley by 00z Sat. * ACTIVE START TO NEW WEEK? The EC and GFS both progging an upper level trough shifting from the desert SW to across the nation's mid section on Tue.
A closed mid/upper-level cyclone across the Arklatex region earlier this morning will continue to shift east-southeastward today, becoming centered across northeastern LA/southwestern MS by 00Z. Coverage will slowly decrease as the low moves eastward, however wrap around precip will keep rainfall well into the day on Wednesday (before finally tapering off in the afternoon).
1124 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Current surface map places weak trof across western South Dakota. With flat upper level ridge over the plains, thermal profiles peak this this afternoon. Quiet weather for the remainder of the week as upper level trof slides east.
348 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Current conditions across the region are characterized by mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s with nearly calm winds. Temperatures will be warmer tonight than last night, with lows primarily in the low 40s. As the closed mid level low currently over Arkansas scoots off to the east tomorrow, west southwesterly mid level flow sets in in response to an approaching trough across the Desert Southwest.
324 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Upper low is near Texarkana and heading eastbound to Atlanta, but with no Smokey in pursuit it will go much slower than the Bandit and the Snowman.
259 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Areas of freezing fog within some widespread very low stratus decks and surface fog have setup across much of south-central Upper Michigan early this morning. Temperatures in our CWA could be a tale of two halves with cooler and foggy conditions in eastern maritime locations with high clouds and warmer conditions across the west. NAM soundings show dew point temps creeping above freezing overnight across the west which could result in some shallow advection fog for locations favored by south- southwesterly upslope. Locations favored by southerly downsloping may get even warmer whereas locations downwind of Lake MI may not warm above 40F.
Low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday, with a few showers possible. A cold front crosses near the end of the week, with rain expected. A rather quiet and pleasant afternoon across the area with much of the lowlands reaching into the mid 60s for highs. For Wednesday, a slowly meandering cut-off low across the southern U.
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
Mid level ridging over the region will gradually get knocked down as energy flows into the western CONUS off the Pacific. This will lead to a little cooler temps for Wed/Thu, but still above normal for the time of year. A split flow pattern gets a little more integrated, remaining more or less progressive, while showing a fairly seasonal pattern of upper troughs moving from the 4 corners region into the plains and passing eastwards.
Warm front will lift north to near the GA/FL line this evening, then to the north of area by dawn Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will move east along and south of the warm front Tonight. The cold front associated with this low will move into western forecast zones around sunrise, then push east across the area through the day. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 60s this evening, then hold near steady through the night.
1219 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
250 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 The short term forecast is highlighted by a cold front moving through tonight, bringing a slight chance for rain to the southwest tonight and gusting winds on Wednesday. The synoptic pattern this afternoon was characterized by mostly zonal flow over the region, with weak troughing both upstream and downstream of the forecast area. Elsewhere, temperatures are much cooler, in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Tonight into Wednesday morning, a cold front will push from west to east through the region, bringing only a slight chance for rain to the southwest. Highs will be slightly cooler on Wednesday, from the mid 30s north central to the mid 50s south central.
254 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving across the region gernally from west to east ahead of an approaching trough.
Tomorrow will be the week's warmest with some 70s ahead of a cold front and next system, which will bring cooler / more seasonal conditions / and precipitation late week. Weak high pressure will shift across the region this evening, with clear skies and light winds allowing for a quick drop off in temps into the 30s and lower 40s.
Some models are hinting at that potential along the Canadian border, but the lowest winds should be east of the Red River Valley.
336 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Stacked low pressure is situated near the Arklatex. Regional radar shows widespread precipitation ahead of the low overspreading the western CWA. However, do think scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely tomorrow with the support of the upper low.
Upper low continue to spin southwest of the area, and with the very slow movement will not have too much affect of the mid-state this afternoon.
/issued 1011 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022/ Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 50. Temperatures are nearly steady in the low to mid 50s under overcast skies. An upper low, currently anchored near the ArkLaTex region, will move slowly into the Lower Mississippi Valley through this afternoon. The low is progged to take a east-southeast track through central Mississippi through Wednesday morning. The upper low will lift out the region on Wednesday and upper level ridging will build in behind it through midweek. This will translate to a dry and warmer than normal temperature regime.
Sunny skies and warm weather under high pressure and warm air advection this evening into tonight. A cold front will pass through late Wednesday bringing our warm up to an end.
1216 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Slightly cooler conditions will be present across the region for this afternoon. Tonight looks rather uneventful with lows in the lower 40s.
418 PM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Our main feature in the short term period will be a closed upper level low passing by to our southeast. The low is currently over the lower Mississippi Valley, with KY being in a col between the low and the more northerly prevailing westerlies aloft. The low will move slowly eastward across the Deep South through the day Wednesday, with deep moisture spiraling around it making its way northward into the JKL forecast area. The upper low will be weakening and starting to open up as it turns northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Wednesday night.
The rain shield is quickly approaching the interstate corridor although drier air in the lower levels needs to be overcome, and will, before we start observing any falling. Looks like this would primarily be across the higher terrain but can't rule it out in the Snake Plain or Magic Valley. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow for most locations, generally 2-5 degrees, from today's afternoon temperatures.
High rain chances will continue tonight into Wednesday as an upper level low affects the region. For Wednesday, as the upper level low moves closer, some mid-level dry air is expected to move into the area from the southwest, which will likely decrease rain chances across the western portions of the area. Overnight lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Wednesday mainly in the low to mid 70s.
257 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 There are no significant weather impact concerns, with the main forecast items of note being: * Patchy fog possible along the lakeshore and possibly a bit inland (especially far NE IL) this evening-early overnight * Well above normal temps on Wednesday with highs of 65-70 * South-southwest winds gusting up to 30 mph and sporadically up to 35 mph (mainly interior northern IL) on Wednesday The stationary frontal boundary that pushed south across the area as a cold front last night is analyzed just south of the CWA as of this writing.
Here, a bit of ridging has brought the great temps and WAA at 850hPa continues. A LLJ overnight will keep winds stiff (30-50kt) at about 1500 feet AGL and southerly surface winds will continue at 5-15mph overnight, and will remain out of the south until a cold front pushes through the area on Wednesday, switching the winds to the northwest tomorrow afternoon. The cold front slows Wednesday night in response to the approaching upper level trof and the substantial weather it brings.
A weak one will stick around for a bit longer but should not impact the high temperature forecast greatly. Conditions over the plains will be dry with the latest RH guidance dropping values into the lower teens and even single digits in some areas. Forecast highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday look good.
Currently, low pressure was centered over south Mississippi. As this low continue to moves slowly east along the Gulf coast tonight, areas of light rain will continue to move across the region with the best chance of rain over southern and eastern sections of the Mid- South. Temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than normal for mid-March with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.