Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 48 31 54 35 / 30 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 47 32 49 35 / 30 20 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 47 31 50 34 / 40 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 47 32 45 32 / 50 30 10 10 10.
Wind will be light and from a southerly direction through this evening, shifting to the northwest tonight as a weak trough moves through the area. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the low to mid 20s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low 50s.
an upper low and associated jet streak will move across the area this afternoon into the early night hours. with drier air at the lower levels and no instability to mention. bringing in cooler and drier air and lowering rain chances. high pressure will develop over the southern MS Valley keeping northwest flow over the state.
A stalled frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is parallel to the mean-layer flow, yet downstream from a positively tilted trough complex. Moderate southeast breezes persist across the Florida Keys, with temperatures near 80 and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Skies are mostly sunny aside from the thin strip of showers just to the east of the Lower Keys.
There continues to be patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle and flurries ahead of this system ("snizzle") where a field of very low clouds exists. In the wake of the storm system, it does appear that soundings show the potential for a brief switchover to freezing drizzle before everything comes to an end.
1111 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid and high level clouds cover all but southwest sections of the forecast area early this morning, and is associated with a short wave trough moving across the area.
Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer Sunday night, with lows in the upper 40s to low 40s.
A southwesterly flow pattern aloft continues across our forecast area between an upper level low that is moving across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas and an upper level ridge of high pressure that is located across the vicinity of Cuba, the Bahamas, and the adjacent western Atlantic. Highs still look on track to reach the upper 50s to around 60 degrees across southeast Mississippi and adjacent southwest Alabama, and a little warmer in the lower to mid 60s across the rest of south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle this afternoon. Winds become west to northwest 5-10 knots this afternoon, becoming more northerly by early Sunday morning as high pressure builds into the region.
Ridge of high pressure will gradually shift east tonight, but winds remain light and inversion likely to strengthen as warmer air advances east aloft.
/Issued 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ Some patchy light freezing drizzle has developed this morning across portions of northwest Arkansas. Most locations are above freezing, but a few locations could continue with light freezing drizzle over the next hour or two before mid level saturation occurs in association with approaching upper trough. Precipitation should transition to mainly snow this afternoon with light accumulations possible in northwest Arkansas, especially in the higher terrain areas.
Temperatures were cut a degree or two across the region to account for cooler than expected conditions. Due to clouds prevailing today, high temperatures will be on the cooler side meaning mid to upper 40s in the west and low to upper 50s for central and the east. /JNE/ The deep upper low over the Southern Plains this morning will be kicked out by another pulse of energy dropping into the h5 pattern over the country.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): High pressure remains in control in the short term with pleasant and dry conditions expected. Sunday, southerly winds return as high pressure moves eastward with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
Aforementioned closed southern stream wave is expected to migrate into and through the lower/eastern lakes region later tonight through Sunday, bringing another round of precip through southern Lower Michigan. Model low level RH forecasts/soundings as well as MOS guidance all remain very bullish in saturating the low levels again tonight, suggesting the redevelopment/expansion of stratus and/or fog across the region. And given temps today just getting above freezing.
Outside of the valley many locations are in the 30s and above freezing. Warm nose and mid level dry layer also raises the possibility for more of a mix and brief freezing rain can't be ruled out if saturation were to occur.
Lingering snowfall across portions of the central Sandhills and into north central Nebraska will keep daytime temperatures cooler in these locations. Elsewhere, highs will rise into the low to mid 40s. Overnight temperatures remain chilly in the upper teens to low 20s tonight before rising slightly on Sunday night into the low to mid 20s.
Light to moderate northerly winds will become light and variable by this evening lingering into Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. Winds will become calm overnight while high pressure moves across the area. /issued 219 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Light to moderate northwesterly flow and clearing skies will continue this morning as high pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas. Winds will become calm later this evening as high pressure slides eastward into the Gulf. Sunday will see return flow set back in, allowing for temperatures to reach seasonal normal levels with highs in the lower to middle 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.
The Northwoods area did get some clearing yesterday afternoon and again today, as the higher terrain there is near the top of the moist air. Areas of dense fog and freezing fog are expected across central and parts of east central Wisconsin tonight through Sunday morning as the temperature inversion gets closer to the ground.
306 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley and cross the area tonight into Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low moving across eastern Oklahoma, with zonal flow aloft over our region, while visible satellite showed sunny skies across our forecast area. At the surface, west to southwest winds were occurring due to low pressure across eastern CO and high pressure over deep south Texas. As of 130 pm, temperatures were in the upper 40s to mid 50s, which is generally about 10-15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. This warming is due to warming of the 850 mb thermal ridge and the warmer downsloping westerly surface flow. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen a little further tonight and tomorrow which, along with the warmer, downsloping westerly winds, should lead to a little warmer lows tonight (low to mid 30s) and warmer highs Sunday (mid 50s to mid 60s).
1022 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Some patchy light freezing drizzle has developed this morning across portions of northwest Arkansas. Most locations are above freezing, but a few locations could continue with light freezing drizzle over the next hour or two before mid level saturation occurs in association with approaching upper trough. Precipitation should transition to mainly snow this afternoon with light accumulations possible in northwest Arkansas, especially in the higher terrain areas.
1040 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Mean layer ridging centered to the east of the Florida Keys supports moderate to fresh southeast breezes. Temperatures are near 80 with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Weak confluence along a relic Cuban land breeze has maintained a thin line of showers which currently is pivoting through the Lower Keys. From synopsis, moderate to fresh southeast breezes will trend downwards over the next couple of days as a ridge axis across Florida migrates southward.
1240 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 A series of low pressure systems will track through the eastern United States today and tonight bringing another round of precipitation to the Mid Atlantic region.
Hence, we have included a patchy freezing fog mention around Childress in the 08-12Z window, when temperatures will be near the freezing mark.
Warmer temperatures combined with light west to southwest winds will make today feel much warmer than yesterday's cloudy/drizzly day. /Issued 244 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ /Sunday Onward/ Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected through the first few days of the work week as upper ridging takes hold of North and Central Texas.
With the cold temps, cannot rule out some freezing fog impacts to travel as well.
1251 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 High pressure will pass across the lower Great Lakes today.
213 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 High pressure briefly moves by early this evening.
130 PM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 Slightly warmer temperatures are expected through the period as some weak/broad upper ridging moves our way from the west.
259 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 A closed upper level low was located over northwest AR with an associated vort max trailing to the south. The upper level jet has rounded the base of the trough indicating the system will now quickly lift northeast.
Although today has been a relative tranquil day (except for the patchy fog), conditions will deteriorate going into this evening as a strong upper level low pressure system moves across Central U. Additionally, as the upper level low moves northeast, the upper level support necessary goes with it leaving our area in unfavorable conditions for poor to no convection as the front moves through.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 42 49 31 54 / 10 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 42 48 32 49 / 10 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 42 48 31 50 / 10 40 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 40 48 32 45 / 10 50 20 10 10.
340 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 A low pressure will continue to move northeast across the region today, which will continue to bring chances of light precipitation to the area. Temperatures will continue to drop to the lower 40s today with lows tonight in the lower 30s. Dry weather weather and zonal flow will area behind the aforementioned low pressure tomorrow.
Fast moving s/wv trough approaching from the central Rockies tonight will result in surface cyclogenesis across the Red River Valley region of southwest Oklahoma this evening, with the low progd to progress eastward across southern Oklahoma on Sunday. With temperatures expected to be well below freezing at onset of fog development, we could see freezing fog dense enough to result in riming of elevated surfaces. If clouds persist through most of the afternoon, some areas will struggle to get much above freezing.
Parts of the north also goto AOA freezing and had some snow melt during the day, and are clear which will allow for a rapid drop of temps to/past current dew points. A Freezing Fog Advisory (vsby criteria AOB 1/2SM as opposed to AOB 1/4SM for the Dense Fog Advisory) would probably be a better fit for the situation, but don't feel it's worth making that change at this point, especially since offices to the west and southwest all have a FG. The Northwoods area did get some clearing yesterday afternoon and again today, as the higher terrain there is near the top of the moist air. Areas of dense fog and freezing fog are expected across central and parts of east central Wisconsin tonight through Sunday morning as the temperature inversion gets closer to the ground.
Finally starting to see confirmation of light snow reaching the surface northwest of this low with a light dusting possible for portions of central Missouri. Periods of dense fog and temperatures below freezing will lead to areas of freezing fog that could create some slick spots on roadways and overpasses. Another trough in this series of troughs will dip down into Kansas Sunday and then take a similar track as today's trough across the Ozark Plateau. Temperatures will warm into the 40s and 50s as high pressure starts to build over the Plains. So far, mid and long-range models seem to be in decent agreement with timing of this system, but still slightly off with placement of the upper level low.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ The aforementioned upper trough is ejecting northeastward into the Ozarks this afternoon and eventually into the Ohio Valley by Sunday. This should allow temperatures to drop to near freezing areawide overnight, with upper 20s possible across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas. Morning cloud cover should give way to mostly sunny skies on Sunday along with warmer temperatures, as afternoon highs top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Another weak trough will move through the region during the late afternoon and evening hours, but no precip is expected as moisture is very limited with this system.
Some patchy blowing snow occurred with the stronger winds through the morning, but has since dissipated mostly thanks to temps above freezing this afternoon. Will continue to see gusty winds along these eastern ridge lines into the evening and early overnight hours with perhaps some patchy blowing snow occurring but probably not impactful enough to become hazardous. Sunday's highs will be warmer west once again with readings in the 40s. An upper trough will approach the region on Sunday and push a sfc cold front into the forecast area by tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.
High pressure works further offshore, turning winds more south and southeasterly into Sunday afternoon. /issued 237 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): High pressure remains in control in the short term with pleasant and dry conditions expected. Sunday, southerly winds return as high pressure moves eastward with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
It's negatively impacted temperatures including here at the Valley office where we're running 5-10 degrees cooler than neighbors.
The upper low this afternoon continues to lift into MO, wrapping mid level clouds southward across eastern KS. Light returns have been noted on radar, however with the higher cloud bases light snow has been difficult to reach the sfc towards the I-35 corridor. Despite the snow covered ground in eastern KS, highs today managed to reach the low 30s, while north central areas are peaking in the low 40s this hour. As the upper low exits east by early evening, skies are expected to become mostly clear for the first few hours after sunset. Depending upon how long any residual fog/stratus takes to lift in the morning, temps could be a few degrees cooler across far eastern Kansas.
Light snow is sticking to grassy and elevated surfaces, including bridges and overpasses. Drizzle/freezing drizzle is also possible overnight, especially when snow is not currently falling. Though Sunday is expected to be largely precipitation-free, it is still shaping up to be another dreary day with fog, low clouds, and temperatures in the low 30s to mid 40s. There continues to be patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle and flurries ahead of this system ("snizzle") where a field of very low clouds exists. In the wake of the storm system, it does appear that soundings show the potential for a brief switchover to freezing drizzle before everything comes to an end.
737 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Low pressure will lift a warm front north through the area again tonight.
420 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 High pressure briefly moves by early this evening.
312 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Widespread precipitation has developed today as an upper low moved into the area. The low is currently over Taney County, with the heaviest snow to the north along the Highway 65 corridor coincident with Fgen around the 850mb level. As the Fgen continues to pivot on the north side of the low, we could see around an inch of storm total accumulation in a fairly narrow corridor generally from Ozark to Marshfield to Osage Beach. Accumulations should be mostly confined to grassy or elevated surfaces, but could see some slick spots mainly on bridges and overpasses. After snow moves out this evening, there will be potential for fog and freezing fog tonight into Sunday morning. Highs will range from the low 40s north to the low 50s south.
However, rapid subsidence and drying is evident in WV/IR imagery along the nwrn periphery of the low-level cloud cover across portions of ern MT. A sfc trof is making its way thru the area this aftn, with SW winds transitioning to N/NW winds across nern WY and wrn SD. Little change in low-level thermal characteristics behind today's disturbance, with even warmer 850-mb temps projected by tomorrow. As SW winds return ahead of the next developing trof, expecting highs a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Later tomorrow aftn into the evening, the next trof/fnt crosses the region.
/28/ Tonight and tomorrow: as an upper closed low finally begins to eject NE across the MS and Ohio River Valleys this evening and into tomorrow, the persistent deck of low stratus over the region will begin to degrade and exit to the east as we get into the evening and overnight hours. The light winds and lack of cloud cover brought forth by the high pressure at the surface will help to increase the radiational cooling affect across most of the region except areas in the Golden Triangle where some low level clouds may still be present. Lows will range from the low to upper 30s.
Freezing levels drop to below 800 ft agl across the west aft 09Z.
/issued 349 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ A low pressure will continue to move northeast across the region today, and bring chances of light precipitation to the area. Temperatures throughout the day will drop to the lower 40s today with lows tonight in the lower 30s. Dry weather weather and zonal flow will area behind the aforementioned low pressure tomorrow.
A closed upper level low was located over northwest AR with an associated vort max trailing to the south. The upper level jet has rounded the base of the trough indicating the system will now quickly lift northeast.
Low temperatures will fall to or just below freezing areawide, especially in SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas, while patchy fog remains possible in our northern and eastern zones.
310 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Tonight and tomorrow: as an upper closed low finally begins to eject NE across the MS and Ohio River Valleys this evening and into tomorrow, the persistent deck of low stratus over the region will begin to degrade and exit to the east as we get into the evening and overnight hours. The light winds and lack of cloud cover brought forth by the high pressure at the surface will help to increase the radiational cooling affect across most of the region except areas in the Golden Triangle where some low level clouds may still be present. Lows will range from the low to upper 30s.
349 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 A low pressure will continue to move northeast across the region today, and bring chances of light precipitation to the area. Temperatures throughout the day will drop to the lower 40s today with lows tonight in the lower 30s. Dry weather weather and zonal flow will area behind the aforementioned low pressure tomorrow.
A weak cold front across the Florida Big Bend this evening will slowly continue moving south overnight. Cooler temps across the north, as highs reach only the low to mid 70s from Kissimmee to Titusville north. Warmer across the Treasure Coast as highs reach the low 80s. Low stratus will develop from ISM-TIX northward late tonight into early Sunday morning as a cold front approaches. Ahead of an approaching cold front south to southwest winds 15-20 knots continue across the waters tonight into Sunday morning. The cold front pushes across the area Sunday causing winds to become NW behind it in the afternoon with scattered showers.
348 PM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 The short term period remains dry with slightly warmer than average temperatures for this time of year as high temperatures remain in the middle 40s to lower 50s and lows stay mainly in the 20s.
5 KFT rotating underneath the upper low in the northwest flow.
The High Wind Warning continues through the day and evening tomorrow, with both the Laramie Valley and the central portion of Laramie County being thrown into the Warning at 8 AM. Short wave trough was approaching eastern WY, accompanied by a band of mid clouds and light precipitation. Otherwise, a 10-12mb surface pressure gradient between a ridge to the west and trough over the High Plains was generating strong westerly winds along and west of the Laramie Range, especially the wind-prone areas. Westerly 700-800mb flow will remain elevated, generally between 55 and 65kt across southeast WY, with 45 to 50kt into the high plains Sunday.
444 PM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 Short wave trough was approaching eastern WY, accompanied by a band of mid clouds and light precipitation. Otherwise, a 10-12mb surface pressure gradient between a ridge to the west and trough over the High Plains was generating strong westerly winds along and west of the Laramie Range, especially the wind-prone areas. Westerly 700-800mb flow will remain elevated, generally between 55 and 65kt across southeast WY, with 45 to 50kt into the high plains Sunday.
Lee troughing ahead of this approaching system has brought windy conditions to the mountains and through the passes and gaps into the adjacent lower elevations this afternoon and has helped boost temperatures into the mid 50s in some places (KPUB). High res models keep some gusty winds going over and near the higher terrain overnight with a cold front dropping through the southeast plains this evening. Once again, expect gusty winds in and near the mountains as the lee trough deepens and kicks eastward in response. Another round of cloudiness spreads in from the west during the day with some isolated snow showers across the higher central mountains, but any snowfall amounts will be spotty and light with amounts under an inch.
A subsidence inversion is likely to keep this low- level moisture trapped near the surface, so improvement today could be slow. Forecast guidance continues to focus the highest snow amounts over the southern half of my area, especially areas south of I-80, with lighter amounts farther north. This corridor is expected to advect northeastward and accompany the upper low tonight, and this could support some heavier snow rates.
HTL and GOV have both seen temps rise from circa 10f to the low/mid 20s as the clouds roll in. Aforementioned closed southern stream wave is expected to migrate into and through the lower/eastern lakes region later tonight through Sunday, bringing another round of precip through southern Lower Michigan. Model low level RH forecasts/soundings as well as MOS guidance all remain very bullish in saturating the low levels again tonight, suggesting the redevelopment/expansion of stratus and/or fog across the region. And given temps today just getting above freezing.
Warmer air aloft will keep the inversion noted in 00z soundings in place and with recent snowfall combined with some limited moisture advection its a good setup for dense fog. Especially with temps holding below freezing and potential for some droplets to freeze on untreated surfaces. Stumpf (Issued 300 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Deep moisture, calm winds, and sub-freezing temperatures will contribute to the potential for some dense freezing fog. The freezing nature of the fog will likely lead to some slick spots on untreated surfaces, so caution is advised with respect to travel this evening.
1131 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Aviation - Rather mundane weather expected the next 7 days - Snow for Southern Lower MI overnight into Sunday morning - Small chance of flurries/freezing drizzle Mon afternoon/night - Chance for some light snow/lake effect snow next Saturday - Rather mundane weather expected the next 7 days Overall the pattern for the next 7 days looks pretty uneventful. Not out of the realm of possibilities to see a bit of freezing drizzle later this evening as lift increases ahead the approaching upper wave. The lift will occur prior to deeper moisture and the saturation of the DGZ leading to the possibility of the freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle will need to be monitored, but even so air temperatures will be marginal (near freezing) so it should be easily mitigated.