Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 (Today and tonight) Initial diurnal thunderstorm development late afternoon in the Texas Panhandle moved east-southeast, with more development than previously expected further east along diffuse warm front within warm/moist advection regime.
728 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Aviation Light snow or mixed precipitation can be expected today and tonight as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. Low levels will take a while to moisten up and evaporative cooling is expected to overcome above freezing sfc temps to bring a period of light snow at the onset of the precip. We could also see a mix with freezing rain across the northern interior zones tonight but precip should be light and sfc temps marginal so no impacts are expected.
A change will be underway today as high pressure continues to flatten and a surge of subtropical moisture moves in from the west. 50" of moisture is possible in the higher terrain.
/issued 507 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020/ Early this morning, an upper level trough was entering the Texas Panhandle and far West Texas and will track east across the area this morning. Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid 80s across the Big Country, to the upper 80s elsewhere.
635 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Updated for 12Z Aviation A low pressure system is currently situated over western ND with it's associated warm front draping through southern MN. As we move into the morning hours a stronger push of warm air advection will blanket the Northland helping to increase the low level moisture and bring the chance of scattered snow showers. Highs for today will range from in the 50s near NW WI and into north central MN, farther north will remain cooler with temperatures near 40 across the eastern portions of the Arrowhead. Thursday will see a more zonal flow aloft with weak surface ridging into the area.
Current temperatures range from the lower to mid 30s in the colder mountain valleys, to the 50s to lower 60s across the Central Valley. Axis of upper ridge slowly moves from the eastern Pacific to over NorCal through the remainder of the week. The result will be gradually warmer temperatures across interior NorCal.
507 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Early this morning, an upper level trough was entering the Texas Panhandle and far West Texas and will track east across the area this morning. Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid 80s across the Big Country, to the upper 80s elsewhere.
627 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had closed low pressure over southwestern Quebec with a trough extending south into the Mid-Atlantic states.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 54 71 55 75 / 10 90 90 50 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 53 71 56 71 / 0 80 90 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 52 70 55 72 / 0 90 90 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 49 68 53 67 / 0 90 100 80 30 NC.
414 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Weak low pressure will move through the region today. All of these factors will work against each other when it comes to the high temperature. Clouds will increase tonight and Thursday ahead of another area of low pressure that will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region.
A warm front located from north central Iowa to northeast South Dakota is lifting north early this morning. A weak area of low pressure will track southeast along this boundary later today. The low will do little beside stalling the northward progression of the front late this morning as it tracks across southern Minnesota this afternoon. Assuming mostly sunny skies area wide, highs should range from around 50 to the lower 80s, respectively. A couple storms could fire across far southern Minnesota late this afternoon as the low and cold front push through.
/issued 334 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020/ Clouds will continue to increase across the Mid-South today as a warm front moves northward from the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers will occur today anywhere north of the warm front. Chances for precipitation will increase by this evening as a low pressure system tracks eastward out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, lingering wrap-around showers with the passage of the upper trof will continue across much of the area during the day on Thursday.
623 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Weak low pressure will move through the region today. All of these factors will work against each other when it comes to the high temperature. Clouds will increase tonight and Thursday ahead of another area of low pressure that will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Through mid-afternoon, the big story looks to be the strong srly winds which will develop as higher winds aloft mix down and deepening low pressure over the srn Plains tightens the gradient. After a brief lull this evening (although ceilings will again lower), round two of the precip, this time along a pre-frontal trof, is expected to sweep through. High pressure is moving east across the eastern sections of the country today and will become centered along the mid-Atlantic coast by mid day. Low pressure is developing along the border of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Weak, dry frontal passage has allowed winds to veer to northerly, but with high pressure building towards the S. Cooler afternoon highs with U70s for the Volusia coast and L80s southward along the Space and Treasure coasts, and M-U80s well into the interior. Increasing clouds late tonight and wind veering onshore flow will keep overnight mins milder, in the M-U60s for most locations, while normally cooler interior rural locations may see L60s. Light northerly component of wind this morning will continue to swing around to the NE/E/ENE through the day as high pressure to the north builds toward and southeast U. NE/E winds will increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon, but are expected to stay just below Red Flag Warning criteria over areas that see the lowest RH values.
412 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 The main upper low is moving eastward over northern New Mexico with some energy ahead of this disturbance impacting the area. This afternoon, the main upper low will move across northern Oklahoma and in concert, a weak front/wind shift will move southeast across the area in response. Skies will clear and overnight lows in the low 40s are expected.
326 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 One more day of above normal temperatures as weak ridging shifts to the east. Initial precipitation will be limited to western mountain ranges tonight, and with snow levels starting out higher, snowfall will be limited to the highest elevations tonight.
Water vapor imagery currently shows moisture flowing in from the north/northwest on the back side of the upper low. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow as most places reach the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s. Guerrero A mid to upper level low pressure system currently sits over the northeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as of this writing. This low will continue to propagate east out of the area. Northwest flow aloft becomes the dominate synoptic set up over the coming week as the low exits.
AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 71 55 75 55 / 80 80 50 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 71 56 71 53 / 90 90 80 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 52 70 55 72 52 / 90 80 70 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 68 53 67 48 / 80 90 80 30 10.
00" of rain is expected in this area with the higher amounts in our far southern counties. This will bring a weak cold front with it, which is the focus for another area of showers and storms. The cold front and storms will arrive in far northwest MO closer to sunset.
Weak low pressure will move through the region today. All of these factors will work against each other when it comes to the high temperature. Clouds will increase tonight and Thursday ahead of another area of low pressure that will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region.
314 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Upper trof/low will continue to move eastward this evening from south central into southeast Kansas.
Instability decreases with northeast extent therefore the highest chance for an isolated strong storm with hail would be south of a Joplin to West Plains line. This is all attributed to a compact upper level low moving through southern KS and northern OK. Therefore it now looks likely that the low track will go just south of the area in northern AR. Storm total rainfall from this event (including whats already fallen will be between 1-2 inches with the highest amounts in far southwest Missouri. Gusty winds of 30-35mph will continue ahead of the low this evening and then behind the low by Thursday morning.
1139 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Currently, satellite imagery and upper-air analysis indicates a closed low has developed within a trough, which is currently located in northern New Mexico. Temperatures as of 3 AM are generally in the 40s along and east of the I-25 corridor, while the high valleys are generally in the 30s. With the upper-level trough axis and closed low still located in north central New Mexico, there should be enough large scale ascent for scattered precipitation to continue for a few more hours this morning over the southeastern corner of Colorado before exiting the region by around midday or so. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the 60s and 70s for most lower elevation locations, and lows tonight are expected to generally be in the 20s and 30s in the high valleys and 40s across the plains.
Clouds will continue to increase across the Mid-South today as a warm front moves northward from the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers will occur today anywhere north of the warm front. Chances for precipitation will increase by this evening as a low pressure system tracks eastward out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, lingering wrap-around showers with the passage of the upper trof will continue across much of the area during the day on Thursday.
If any fires manage to get started, the low RH and short-term drought would support intense burning and rapid spread. Flat upper ridging will pass east across the Keys through Thursday morning, aligning with the dry air mass to support the rain-free forecast. Weak high pressure will move from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina coast today, arriving near Bermuda on Thursday.
A couple of low pressure system are expected to affect the area over the next few days.
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had closed low pressure over southwestern Quebec with a trough extending south into the Mid-Atlantic states.
/Issued 259 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020/ Closed upper low tracking east out of the central and southern Rockies this morning and then across the central Plains states by this afternoon will allow for convection across mainly the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. A cold front will push all the way through the Panhandles this morning resulting in breezy to windy conditions today on northwest to north winds. Quick warmup on Thursday as downsloping west to southwest winds return ahead of the next cold front Thursday night.
1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 The main upper low is moving eastward over northern New Mexico with some energy ahead of this disturbance impacting the area. This afternoon, the main upper low will move across northern Oklahoma and in concert, a weak front/wind shift will move southeast across the area in response. Skies will clear and overnight lows in the low 40s are expected.
High pressure aloft is expected to build into the Great Basin for the weekend.
211 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 An upper low spins over Maine with associated troughing extending south through the western Atlantic. Weak ridging extends north through the Mississippi River Valley, while an upper low and troughing extends south through Texas. A quasi-zonal pattern remains over Florida through late Thursday when the trough out west transits eastward. This trough will lend support to the next weather system expected to move through the eastern U.
256 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Warmer than normal temperatures combined with weak disturbances passing through the region will bring chances for precipitation tonight. Despite potential for occasional lightning, virga, and sprinkles, lift aloft has not likely to be strong enough to overcome dew points in the lower to mid 30s. Overnight, a dry atmospheric profile under weak high pressure will bring mainly clear skies with temperatures dropping into the 40s and light winds. Expect another warm day on Thursday, albeit cooler than Wednesday, with daytime highs expected to reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.
1224 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 One more day of above normal temperatures as weak ridging shifts to the east. Initial precipitation will be limited to western mountain ranges tonight, and with snow levels starting out higher, snowfall will be limited to the highest elevations tonight.
138 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Aviation Light snow or mixed precipitation can be expected today and tonight as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. Low levels will take a while to moisten up and evaporative cooling is expected to overcome above freezing sfc temps to bring a period of light snow at the onset of the precip. We could also see a mix with freezing rain across the northern interior zones tonight but precip should be light and sfc temps marginal so no impacts are expected. A warm front pushing toward this area has created an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms over WI and IL that are heading east toward this area.
318 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain moving in tonight and even a few thunderstorms possible - Small area of freezing rain possible near Harrison tonight - Below normal but moderating temperatures over the weekend - Rain moving in tonight and even a few thunderstorms possible The right entrance region of an upr jet will be over the CWA tonight. - Small area of freezing rain possible near Harrison tonight Forecast soundings from many of the models show a shallow cold layer underneath the elevated warm layer tonight into Thursday morning. Forecast temperature values around Harrison and into Evart suggests a risk for freezing rain. Model qpf in the region is low and the window for freezing rain is narrow. This could lead to few icy spots on bridges and overpasses.
A dry cold front is moving through Northeast Montana early this morning which will bring somewhat cooler temperatures today.
An upper level trough is moving into West Texas while at the surface a dryline and cold front are moving across our CWA. Ahead of the dryline/front the winds are from the south to southwest and dewpoints are in the lower to middle 70s. Low temperatures Thursday will be cooler, but highs will rebound quickly in the dry air.
317 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 As of 20Z Wednesday afternoon, an impressive mid-latitude cyclone was progressing across the Central and Southern Plains.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows steep/or absolutely unstable conditions in the lower levels with lapse rates 9C to 10C/Km.
Current upper level analysis has ridge over the Northern Plains with mostly clear skies. At the surface, weak trof of low pressure resides across central North Dakota into eastern South Dakota, with high pressure over the Northern Rockies. Another mild and dry day on tap as upper ridge axis crosses the area. Temperatures will be cooler, mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Cumulus field across northeast New Mexico and elevated showers across the TX/OK Panhandles suggests that isolated storms could remain in the forecast but trajectory of the trough/low suggests the area of favorable conditions will shift east through the afternoon into tonight and take the beast chances east of the area. West wind providing a downslope component combined with sunny skies should help to boost highs on the Caprock above blend and guidance values into the low to mid 80s. Jordan Broad upper level ridging will persist over the western CONUS with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS for the rest of this week.
If any can be come truly surface based, then they may take advantage of the low level shear with a quick spin up. Through mid-afternoon, the big story looks to be the strong srly winds which will develop as higher winds aloft mix down and deepening low pressure over the srn Plains tightens the gradient. After a brief lull this evening (although ceilings will again lower), round two of the precip, this time along a pre-frontal trof, is expected to sweep through. High pressure is moving east across the eastern sections of the country today and will become centered along the mid-Atlantic coast by mid day. Low pressure is developing along the border of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Cloud cover associated with an area of mid-level convergence and warm frontal boundary will gradually expand Eastward across the CWA this afternoon. A low pressure system will move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning.
The weak cold front will not actually affect temperatures, as we will continue with high temperatures win the mid 80s to upper 90s. An upper level trough is expected to approach the area Thursday night.
A somewhat broad trough is currently set up over the Southern Great Plains, with the main areas of precip existing south of the area in Kansas. A weak cold front is draped from Thurston County southeastward towards central Nebraska. This cold front and deep mixing are allowing for some weaker instability to be present, and is evident in some scattered cumulus development and precipitation along the front. Once the cold front has cleaned us out, dry conditions are expected until tomorrow afternoon when precipitation returns. After the current trough moves eastward, northwest flow will become the dominant upper level feature until a northern trough dives south and east out of central Canada.
(This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms continue to evolve through the afternoon hours as the upper low makes its final dig across our area, as well as a surface boundary/dryline making its eastward push. Expecting last round of supercells to begin developing in this highly unstable and sheared environment, with very large hail possible.
By around 6 am the low level jet get cranking over the southern part of the area but storms still look to be elevated. and into the early evening hours the low level instability increases with LI/s around -3C.
1259 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 (Today and tonight) Initial diurnal thunderstorm development late afternoon in the Texas Panhandle moved east-southeast, with more development than previously expected further east along diffuse warm front within warm/moist advection regime.
252 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Current radar imagery show light elevated showers moving into the area this afternoon as a warm front pushes northward from the Gulf. Short range models show thunderstorms moving into the area from the west later tonight in the form of a line as a trough currently over Oklahoma moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the low level jet strengthens areas could see increasing wind gusts, thus a wind advisory has been issued for areas near the Delta. The line of showers will finally move out of the area by tomorrow morning, but lingering showers with the passage of the aforementioned trough will affect the area by Thursday afternoon.
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over south central KY as of 22/12Z as satellite reveals high cloud creeps over SW KY ahead of a low centered over the TX panhandle. Otherwise, current forecast is still on track with max temps today reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds as the aforementioned low pressure system moves from TX to the OH Valley through tomorrow bringing rain chances back to the area beginning tonight. As a low pressure system advances east from the panhandle of Texas, the pressure gradient will strengthen increasing winds around noon. The cloud cover and southern flow will help keep low temperatures mild, only dropping into the low to middle 50s.
A strong upper low over the southern plains will bring severe weather to that region.
Breezy northwest winds will diminish and become light and variable after sunset this evening as high pressure settles in over the area. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 40s, with highs on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s.
426 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 High pressure will prevail into tonight.
159 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) An upper level trough is currently moving east over the northern TX Panhandle/OK Panhandle, with moist southwest flow aloft bringing scattered to broken high clouds over our forecast area south of I- 20. Temperatures at 1 pm were in the low 80s across much of the region with a dry-line stretching from Throckmorton to Sonora continuing to move east. A weak, dry cold front will move down over West Central Texas tonight, with the surface and upper level trough over Oklahoma continuing to move east into the Midwest. Clear skies are expected tonight and Thursday, with upper level northwest winds and 850 mb ridging moving in. Expect overnight lows in the mid 50s tonight and highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge.
The higher terrain, below 5500 feet in these areas, could see slightly higher amounts.
Feeling is right now is it will be virga and resultant brief gusty winds due to the high cloud bases and relatively shallow moisture. Chances of showers increase across the area Thursday morning and afternoon as a 700 mb low tries to close off and rides from the northwest to southeast along a baroclinic zone highlighted in the lower level frontogenesis fields.
/issued 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020/ A Pacific cold front has recently moved through KLBB and KPWV and will follow at KCDS in a few hours.
STP Most of today will feel very similar to the past two days as upper ridging, downslope winds, and mixing persists through the afternoon. Areas in south-central Montana will see RH's in the upper teens to low 20s again, th ough SE Montana will be relatively moist in comparison as they'll see some moisture that will bring scattered cloud cover in the late afternoon, preventing RH's from getting down below the low 20s.
It drags a cold front through eastern Idaho during the overnight hours. Local study here indicates that with the 700mb flow being west to northwest underneath the upper level northwest flow that the main areas affected would be the eastern Magic Valley and the lower Snake River plain. The mild temperatures of the past three or so days are over; Temperatures in the Snake River plain will be in the 50s, places like Stanley in the 40s, then overnight lows near freezing.
1047 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Areas of cumulus clouds have developed across the eastern plains with building clouds over the higher terrain. The storms building over the higher terrain could produce some light showers that could push across the southern foothills and Palmer Divide area later this afternoon. Over Colorado, weak ridging will develop with very slight QG descent over our forecast area. While most showers should only produce virga due to the low level dry air, a few of the showers may be strong enough for rain to reach the surface so the mention of showers seemed necessary. The next system will race toward our forecast area late tonight producing light snow showers across the higher terrain during the overnight hours.
Weak cold air advection in the low-levels will keep highs a bit cooler than today, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s across northwest Nebraska to lower 70s elsewhere.
256 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over Central Kansas will track eastward to the Missouri border this evening into tonight. In the wake of the upper low, NW flow aloft will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Expect a clearing trend this evening into tonight -- in assoc/w subsidence in the wake of an upper level low progressing eastward from Central to Eastern Kansas. The main feature will be high pressure over the CWA.