Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis shows warm front from western ND through central SD, with warm air in place across the area. Upper level analysis shows broad ridge axis centered across the plains. A cooling trend will take place into the weekend as a cold front over ID and eastern NV moves quickly east across the Rockies this evening and across our area late tonight and Saturday morning. The warmest temps on Saturday will be to the south and east of the Black Hills on Saturday, with highs across the area ranging from around 60 across northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to around 80 across south central SD. The exact track of the low will be critical with respect to timing of the change over to snow and potential snow totals across northeast WY and western SD Sunday night.
This low will bring snow to the northeast Oregon mountains tonight and Saturday with accumulations of 2-6 inches likely. Models continue to show upper ridge over the region Sunday with mostly sunny skies. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring across the area, with the higher coverages near the Cascade crest and over our eastern most zones.
/Issued 720 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017/ Deep upper trough will continue to drift to the Atlantic coast tonight. with a strong upper ridge moving into the MS valley during the short term. The northeast corner should see some lows in the lower 30s. Relative humidity values dip into the lower 20s in some areas during the afternoon.
1131 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2017 Upper ridge axis over the central high plains today will shift eastward by Saturday with southwest flow aloft replacing it. At the surface, trough will move out of northeastern Colorado tonight ending up near a McCook to Gove line by Saturday afternoon. West of the trough, southwest winds will increase in the afternoon and dew points will fall due to downsloping. As a closed low passes well north of the area Sunday, precip stays north and east, but strong winds are expected throughout the CWA especially in the northern half of our counties. While there are some low RH values across extreme southwestern portions of the area, I do not believe that these will be collocated with the highest winds to meet fire weather criteria.
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Temperatures will average below normal today as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
A cold and unstable upper level trough will remain over the region through the day Saturday with showers expanding in coverage in the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes.
502 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 (Today and Tonight) Breezy and warmer temperatures are on tap for today as a lee trough remains in place and the low level thermal ridge strengthens across West Texas. There will be some low clouds across far southern sections through mid morning, otherwise skies will be mostly sunny today with afternoon highs ranging from the lower and middle 80s across southeast sections, to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere. Temperatures tonight will be mild, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
105 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Low pressure over New England will continue to move rapidly northeast away from the area this evening. This will allow a ridge of high pressure to build toward Ohio from the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. The ridge axis will cross the region Saturday and reach the east coast Sunday. High pressure centered more over the Gulf Coast states to the Tennessee Valley will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Saturday. Saturday night the high will drift east. Sunday high level moisture will begin to increase in the warm advection ahead of low pressure in the central plains and another moving through the central lakes.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than previous mornings given more turbulent mixing, cloud cover, and a warmer start point. Winds on Sunday look a bit stronger with the pressure gradient continuing to tighten with high pressure pulling farther to the east-northeast and with deepening low pressure east of the Rockies. Temperatures across the west jump back into the low-90s for highs but with the increase in low-level moisture fire weather concerns are minimal.
Current conditions across the area feature mostly clear skies with some patchy cirrus beginning to move into the area ahead of blading high pressure into the area. Through, the day, as high pressure settles over the area, winds will be light with a dry air mass overhead. This will also lead to relative humidity values dropping into the lower 20 percent range. For tonight, high pressure in place, clear skies through the night, dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s, and near calm winds will mean temps will plummet again tonight. By Sunday, as high pressure shifts east, southerly flow will return to eastern Kentucky as temps will soar into the mid 70s.
351 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure across the region today will push east of the region tonight.
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Mid level flow transitioning to the sw as upper ridge shifts east. As it does it will drag a weak cold front across the region. As western trough approaches and upper low organizes Model guidance continues to shift the main precipitation field a bit farther south with high pressure ridging exerting more influence across the fa.
Surface ridging will remain firmly in place under a slightly less anomalous trough through today. Expect temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, but remain in the lower to middle 70s for most locations.
605 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A trough of low pressure crosses the region today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
OMEGA STYLE BLOCK SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE TROUGH IN A PERFECT LOCATION FOR CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NE ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WC MN AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE ROUNDS THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE REGION.
GOOD SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS KEPT SKIES SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S AT EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY A HYBRID OF OMEGA/REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CONTINENTAL US WITH EASTERN UPPER RIDGING REMAINING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPING CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INSITU.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND AND THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DRIER AIRMASS WL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WELL.
1156 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
A COLD FRONT AND TOTALLY DIFFERENT AIRMASS LURK JUST TO OUR NORTH. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE KNOCKS DOWN/WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY WITH MORE RIDGING FOR MIDWEEK. THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
700 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 SNOWFALL HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTHWESTWARD AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WY. CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO DRYING ALOFT). THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY TUES AFTN.
1032 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 CURRENTLY - A ~1030 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SPREADING SOUTHWARDS. SHORT TERM UPDATE - BREEZY NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTHWARDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW GET CLOSER LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OR THREE OF CONVECTION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. KEEPING BY FAR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
710 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY.
KEEPING BY FAR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW GET CLOSER LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OR THREE OF CONVECTION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD LOOSENING THE LOCAL GRADIENT MONDAY NIGHT.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE TREND AS A FEW URBAN PLACES WERE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. ALL ELSE LOOKS AN TRACK THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MAINLY TO REFLECT THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION THAT EXTENDS FROM SIDNEY MT TO MINOT AND ROLLA AND THE OTHER BATCH OF MORE WELL-DEFINED RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE MOBRIDGE AND ABERDEEN SD AREAS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND RIDGE STRETCHING OFF TO THE WEST. THOUGH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. UPPER LOW LOITERS GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA. PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN.
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FILL AS IT REMAINS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO TO WESTERN SD. DECIDED TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY GIVING UPPER 30S FOR THE LOWER BRULE AREA.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NORTHWARD TO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOWS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH SUNSHINE HAVE HAD PROBLEMS GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 70S.
LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEXT TWO DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE DRY DAYS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. A 582DM BASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY PEAKING IN THE 15-16C DEGREE RANGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE VEERED OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON SO COASTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY HIT THEIR PEAKS ALREADY. TOMORROW WILL BEGIN A WEEK LONG COOLING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND AND WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TOMORROW AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
816 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE EXPECTED UPON PASSAGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL TRANSIT THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. FRIES THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY.
758 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY.
20Z water vapor imagery showed the closed upper low over west central CO and profiler data suggests another speed max/vort max was about to swing through the base of the upper low. At the surface, an inverted trough of low pressure extended from the Rio Grand north into MN. At this time, think lows should range from the upper 40s across the northwest to around 60 in the eastern counties based on the models prog of the low level wind shift.
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WITH OUR LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES COMING OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NO PATH OVER A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE.
644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. Kanofsky An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies.
THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN THE FIRST 200HPA. REDUCED POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT.
Deep upper level low/trof over the Rockies will hold another day as ridging stands firm over the Midwest. Band of showers and storms east of the upper low will shift east of the Missouri River during the day Monday and approach the Mississippi River by Monday evening. One more warm summer like day with temperatures rising into the lower 80s Monday afternoon.
938 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY.
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS WORKING WELL TODAY AS WE SIT UNDER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AND THE LIKLYHOOD OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY MODELS.
THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO.
A LARGE UPR LVL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN TNGT WHILE THE WRN LOW EXPANDS. THE COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR SAGGING SWD WILL MAKE FOR ISENTROPIC PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HIGHLY MOIST AIR COLUMN WHILE FAR SRN MN LOOKS TO BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND COLD-FRONTAL-TYPE LIFT. AND HENCE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARMER ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
1038 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FILL AS IT REMAINS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO TO WESTERN SD. DECIDED TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY GIVING UPPER 30S FOR THE LOWER BRULE AREA.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS (I.
AT 3 PM CDT THE LATEST H5 ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED OVER THE REGION AND THUS MONDAY WILL BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RELENT BY LATE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE LOSES DOMINION OVER THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW GET CLOSER LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OR THREE OF CONVECTION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM ADVANCING EAST UNTIL THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AND WEAKENS IT. MODELS SIMILAR IN THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING THE RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
The upper low over Colorado will begin to drift slowly east early this week.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
748 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING AIR OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY.
1041 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING AIR OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low.
845 PM PDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUING.
943 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
959 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY.
526 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF ON SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW WANE FOR THE GLD FA, THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING.
Short range models indicate a continuous series of H5 vort maxima cycling around the closed low tonight as it lifts slowly northward into Wyoming. For temperatures tonight, partly to mostly cloudy skies combined with little change to the air mass across the high plains will result similar low temperatures to this morning across west central and southwest Kansas. Expect lows in the 30s and the lower 40s(F) across the area. Although the cooler air mass will remain in place across western Kansas through Monday, any lingering cloud cover will decrease through the afternoon allowing for more surface heating. Highs may struggle to reach the lower 60s(F) in west central to central Kansas Monday afternoon with the lower to mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas.
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
950 PM PDT SUN APR 17 2016 High pressure will remain in control through early this week with warm and dry weather. Cooler and more unsettled weather by the end of the week. and up to 6 degrees warmer than Sat. will be near or slightly warmer than persistence as high pressure will be in control of Norcal wx. Strong high pressure will continue across the region through Monday.
1010 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE EXPECTED UPON PASSAGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL TRANSIT THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. FRIES THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY.
859 PM MST SUN APR 17 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR CLEAR SKIES. AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND COLORADO AND WYOMING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE STARTING ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BLOCKED PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH A CLOSED HIGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE W. THE CUT-OFF LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MUCH- NEEDED SOAKING RAIN WAS STUCK OVER CO. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CO THRU TOMORROW. SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT BISECTED THE PLAINS FROM N-S FROM MN-TX.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa.
The noon EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high pressure across the Southeast, with east-northeast winds of 10 to 15 MPH and relatively low dewpoints advecting into the region from the northeast.
1248 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY.
/ISSUED 409 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL CHURNING ACROSS COLORADO. ANOTHER BRISK NIGHT IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. BUT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP VERY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AM NOT CONFIDENT THOUGH THAT EVEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE COULD BE WARRANTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIMILAR TO HOW TODAY UNFOLDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY.
Winds will turn northeast behind a cold front around sunrise and become gusty. /issued 245 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough now centered over western CO, w/a broad swath of convection approaching east Texas/Texas Gulf Coast. Closer to home, a cold front is moving thru West Texas, and has sharpened up a weak dryline over the eastern fringes of the CWA, and along and east of this feature appear to be the best chances for convection later this afternoon/evening. Cold front will continue thru the region overnight, w/thicknesses really coming down over the next 24 hours.
912 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
854 PM PDT SUN APR 17 2016 High pressure aloft and weak offshore morning winds Monday morning will continue to bring very warm and dry weather to the region, with a few degrees of cooling expected.
706 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK.
WITH ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW LATE TOMORROW.
1151 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEN VEER TO THE NE WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS TO BUILD INTO AREA FROM CANADA. ISSUED 340 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT HAS BEEN HELD IN PLACE BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST WILL START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT TEMPS WILL STILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL.
750 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY CONTINUING TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.