Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 1055 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2016/ Satellite imagery/sfc analysis shows the cold front well offshore now and 12z KLCH sounding showed this with a very dry moisture profile now in place. Surface analysis showing rapidly moving cold front now advancing out of southeast Louisiana and extending southwest through the gulf waters. Under sunny skies will see temperatures rise generally into the low 60s this afternoon area- wide. Anticipating lows in the low to mid 30s through central Louisiana into interior southeast Texas, the mid to upper 30s along the I-10 corridor and low 40s at the immediate coast.
The influence of high pressure and existing snow cover is evident on surface temperatures. A broad upper ridge will extend across the central U. Warmer 850 mb temperatures of 6-12 celsius will overspread much of western Nebraska by late tonight, signaling a warmup for Sunday.
Afternoon temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 50s across eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees warmer tomorrow with full sun.
As this ridge exits east of the region by midday, southerly winds will overspread the CWA, yet remain void of any real moistening. This dryness along with improving thicknesses looks reasonable for high temps to end up closer to the warmer spectrum of MOS, particularly over our western zones furthest from the cool, recycled southerly trajectories elsewhere. Despite clear skies tonight under upper ridging, strong radiational will be tempered much more than this morning thanks to steady SW winds. Ridge axis shifts east Sunday and southwest surface flow increases, enhanced by downsloping which will return highs on Sunday back into low 70s for most of the CWA, which is about ten degrees warmer than normal.
The upper level ridge axis will be over central CO at 00z with a moderate westerly flow aloft. On Sunday, better temperature recovery progged for the Urban Corridor and Northeast Plains, but a lingering snowfield should keep it a little cooler north and east of Akron. A southwest flow aloft will prevail over Colorado Sunday night as an upper level trough moves across California.
248 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 Many areas saw their first freeze this morning thanks to a cold front, clear skies, and a very light wind. Zonal upper flow this week will bring a couple of troughs across the central U.
1055 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 Satellite imagery/sfc analysis shows the cold front well offshore now and 12z KLCH sounding showed this with a very dry moisture profile now in place. Surface analysis showing rapidly moving cold front now advancing out of southeast Louisiana and extending southwest through the gulf waters. Under sunny skies will see temperatures rise generally into the low 60s this afternoon area- wide. Anticipating lows in the low to mid 30s through central Louisiana into interior southeast Texas, the mid to upper 30s along the I-10 corridor and low 40s at the immediate coast.
and Sunday A secondary cold front has shifted through the area, accompanied by wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph, and light rain changing to snow. Earlier there were numerous observations of light freezing rain or drizzle in north central and central WI, but most locations were now reporting snow, with rain confined to the lakeshore region. Lake enhancement has picked up in the Lake Superior snowbelt, in conjunction with the upper trof passage. Lake effect snows in north central WI will gradually taper off as the upper trof shifts east this morning, with perhaps another 1 to 2 inches occurring after 12z/Sat. Decreasing clouds will occur outside of north central WI tonight, and especially on Sunday as high pressure builds over the region.
with perhaps some high clouds streaming out ahead of the upper ridge over the western conus. temperatures should drop off quickly as the ridge moves into the area.
High pressure settles over the area tonight with winds decreasing. With clear skies and ridge axis overhead. Freezing temperatures are not anticipated at this time. High pressure ridge will shift eastward during the period with winds shifting from northeast to southeast.
Good radiational cooling conditions occurring within an already chilly post-frontal air mass will yield some of the coldest overnight lows of the season so far, and widespread lows in the low to mid 20s look reasonable. Although air temperatures on Sunday should be similar to those on Saturday (perhaps a few degrees warmer), it will feel much less brisk due to the lighter winds.
106 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 High pressure in control through Sunday.
/18z TAF/ Surface analysis has high pressure over Oklahoma which will continue to support north to northeast winds this afternoon. Winds should decouple and become calm as the high pressure moves over Texas. Cold front well offshore in the Gulf, with the high pressure building in from the north at this time. Under sunny skies, expect high temperatures today mostly in the lower 60s along with decreasing winds under a relaxing gradient. Under clear skies and light winds overnight, we are looking at low temperatures to possibly fall to near freezing up north (in/around the Houston/Trinity counties area).
1046 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 High pressure will be building over the Central Rockies today with an increase in high clouds expected over the next 36 hours. The high clouds will help hold temps up tonight promising a warmer start to Sunday. Pattern shifts a bit on Sunday as the ridge slides east and opens the door for increase moisture from the southwest.
Ridge axis will continue to propagate from west to east this evening/overnight accompanied by light and variable winds. Any coverage more than patchy might be difficult with high clouds spreading across the area and winds increasing as the high pulls away. A decent temperature gradient is likely with readings staying in the upper teens/around 20 across the west with slightly stronger winds and no snow while the snow covered areas in far south and east could drop into the single digits with high pressure overhead. Breezier conditions will return for Sunday as the ridge continues eastward and an area of low pressure begins to develop out in the Rockies.
Light lake effect snow showers are expected to linger into this evening across north-central WI as cold northwest winds (8H temperatures over Lake Superior at -14C) move over the warmer lake temperatures. These snow showers will taper off as high pressure moves into the Upper MS Valley and advects drier air into WI and low-level inversion heights lower.
Southerly flow in low lvls to begin increasing late Sunday, therefore overnight lows to be several degrees warmer, although eastern cwa may flirt once again with near frzg temps.
A few lingering mid level clouds persist in the aftermath of a cold frontal passage last night. /issued 411 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Drier and cooler conditions will dominate the weather over the next 36 hours in the wake of a cold front. It will be sunny and warmer on Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with light north winds shifting to east late in the day as high pressure shifts to the east.
A 1035 mb ridge of cold high pressure is centered from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains this afternoon.
Drastically colder temperatures have built into the area today behind a departing cold front, with a temperature drop of 20 to 40 degrees in the past 24 hours. Cold midlevel temps under the mid/upper trough have kept clouds in place over SW VA and NE TN, but a decreasing trend is noted in satellite imagery this afternoon, and this will continue as the trough exits. Potential for any light snow showers/flurries should end with the trough's exit by midnight. Lows will drop to their lowest so far this season, with lows below freezing everywhere, and in the 20s for most locations. By tomorrow morning, winds should be diminishing as high pressure builds east and becomes centered over the MS Valley.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Surface and mid level high pressure over South Texas tonight will set up a chilly night. Latest model guidance has lowered minimums a few more degrees with dew points crashing into the lower to mid 20s north and west and near 40 degrees along the coast this afternoon.
Gusts of 20-25 mph will remain possible until sunset, and especially on ridge tops. Shoreline areas of the larger lakes along the TN River may stay just above freezing. Cold advection will also decrease as well, so may see temps similar to today's readings, or perhaps a couple degrees cooler.
Tonight Through Sunday A high pressure ridge will be over western and central Wyoming tonight and Sunday with some mid and high level clouds. Sunday Night Through Saturday Sunday night a Pacific low pressure trough now off of the west coast will begin to move inland towards western wyoming.
Upper ridge builds into Montana today. This will warmer air east into the forecast area. A somewhat tight surface gradient between high pressure over the Dakotas and low pressure to the west will bring strong enough east winds during the day for a Lake Wind Advisory over the east half of Fort Peck Lake. The system will bring a weak warm front through the forecast area with only some mid and high level clouds. Flow turns to the southwest Sunday Night as the ridge moves to the east and an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific. This trough is expected to split and take most of its dynamics and moisture to the south.
A ridge axis reaches north from Mexico while a potent upper level low pivots east through the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a 1037 mb high pressure dome is driving a vigorous cold front southeast through the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s which has helped control the humidity. A cold front will approach the Keys overnight and push through Sunday morning.
An upper ridge will be over the area today through Sunday. Pieces of energy will move through the ridge with increasing moisture over the western zones toward the end of the period, as the ridge shifts E, and SW flow overtakes the area. With less cloud cover and a slightly warmer airmass, temperatures should reach the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Overnight lows will be a little warmer than compared to last night with the southerly winds continuing through the overnight period. Highs should be the warmest across the southwest zones where 850-hPa temperatures will be warmer. A large trof west of the forecast district will allow for continued low level warm air advection pattern.
Winds will also gradually decrease by sunset and into this evening as low pressure pulls further away from IL as it moves further east into Quebec and high pressure ridge over central plains drifts east toward the MS river valley by Sunday morning, and settles over IL by Sunday afternoon. A widespread hard freeze expected tonight with lows mostly in the lower 20s, ranging from upper teens by Galesburg to 25F by Lawrenceville. Wind chills to lower into the low to mid teens overnight. Chilly highs again on Sunday mostly in the lower 40s, with areas from I-74 northeast in the upper 30s to near 40F so similar to today's readings.
These clouds and existing snow cover will impact temperatures for today, and stayed on the low side of guidance with respect to high temperatures; going for mid and upper 20s generally from the Interstate 90 corridor northward to lower/mid 30s through the Missouri River Valley into our lower Iowa zones. This will result in a returning southeasterly flow on the backside of the high.
Surface analysis this morning places a ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. A cold front has swept through dropping anywhere from about 0.
255 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 Today the deep mid-level trough continued to progress further east of the area and across the Great Lakes region with a mid-level ridge over the Rockies beginning to shift into the central U. With the CWA remaining under the influence of high pressure this weekend, conditions will remain dry with continued clear skies in place. The tighter pressure gradient present on Sunday will result in breezy southerly winds which will support some warm-air advection with temperatures warming to near the seasonal-normals with highs in the low/mid 50s.
Aloft: Sun into Sun night a fairly high amplitude ridge will crest over the region with its departure resulting in SW flow Mon. The next trof will move onshore from the Pac Sun night and arrive here Tue. trof Thu. and ridge Fri. but the lee trof will be strengthening and Mon eve cyclogenesis will begin over CO. This high will quickly drift E with some type of very weak low and sfc trof fcst to move thru Thxgvg Day. Light winds and cirrus clouds due to high pressure keeping grip on area.
At the surface, last evening's cold front was steadily marching through the Florida panhandle and low country of Georgia and South Carolina. Temperatures this afternoon vary from the low 40s across the northern Bluegrass to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. Yesterdays' record breaking warmth in the low 80s already seems like a distant memory. For tonight, high pressure currently across the central Plains will slowly advance eastward toward the lower MS River Valley.
Late morning surface analysis indicates that the cold front has pushed through our entire forecast area, and extends across southern GA to east of the FL Big Bend and into the adjacent northern Gulf waters as of 10 AM CST. The overall forecast remains on track, with highs expected to reach around 60 to the lower 60s over much of the interior, with mid 60s to around 70 anticipated near the immediate coast (the warmest readings likely already observed near the northwest FL beaches). Despite cool temperatures around 60 to the lower 60s, the latest forecast guidance indicates that relative humidity values could quickly drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range this afternoon.
Over the far eastern CWA, winds will stay light for a good portion of the night and expect temps there to bottom out the lowest, with perhaps some single digits sneaking in.
321 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 Strong low pressure was located over northern Ontario this afternoon. Once the low clouds move out then expect some high clouds to move through our skies late tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, high pressure building in over the next 24 hours will bring quiet weather and continued cold conditions along with light winds. This is similar to lows which occurred this morning just east of the ridge axis outside of snow cover.
334 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2016 Weak high pressure across the region will retreat to the north tonight. Low pressure across western Quebec will strengthen and move into Vermont Sunday morning.
Cold front well offshore in the Gulf, with the high pressure building in from the north at this time. Under sunny skies, expect high temperatures today mostly in the lower 60s along with decreasing winds under a relaxing gradient. Under clear skies and light winds overnight, we are looking at low temperatures to possibly fall to near freezing up north (in/around the Houston/Trinity counties area).
Latest high res model data strongly suggests cooler than forecast highs for today, and given the current cold temperatures and lack of and WAA, went ahead and lowered highs a bit. High pressure across the Northern Plains this morning is forecast to propagate east into the Upper Mississippi Valley through the day. Continued return flow tonight and some mid to upper level cloud cover should hold temperatures much warmer compared to this morning, with lows of 15 to 25 forecast.
High pressure on the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with a tight pressure gradient on the surface resulting in Northerly winds 10-15 knots with higher gusts into the middle and late afternoon before decreasing to less than 7 knots before nightfall. The cooler weather will be the main story for the next couple of days. Combined with the cold airmass already in place, subfreezing temperatures are expected areawide.
Cooler conditions will continue today and tonight with highs today around 5 degrees below normal and lows tonight about 10 degrees below normal.
204 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 The low pressure and cold front that brought cooler air into the area has moved into the Great Lakes region with a large amplitude ridge building into the Great Plains. High pressure dominates the region extending from southern TX up into MN with slightly below normal temperatures over the region. A hard freeze is expected over the entire area tonight with temperatures in northern MO in the lower 20s and south of the Missouri River in the mid to upper 20s.
1249 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2016 A cold front will approach the area late tonight.
Although near or below freezing temperatures occurred across most of the forecast are last night, freezing temperatures are forecast to be more widespread overnight, mainly across the northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Temperatures across much of the rest of the forecast area will drop into the low to mid 30s, although a few low lying sites may drop into the upper 20s.
301 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 At H5 Hudson Bay low with sharp trough into the southeast CONUS. Ridge along the east coast and over the Rockies from Mexico to Calgary. Closed low off the Pacific Northwest. A strong upper level ridge over the western US will slowly slide eastward through the end of the weekend. Conditions will remain dry across the central Plains as a resulting high pressure system dominates the region. Low temperatures tonight remain cool, but warmer than the previous night. With cool temperatures flowing over the warmer river valleys, there's a possibility of some shallow fog early Sunday morning. Locations further northeast will see slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid 40s. After a warmer day on Sunday warm air advection continues through the night on Sunday.
Low pressure off the coast will continue to draw moisture northward and warm frontal forcing will produce a mix of rain and snow. Places like Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Grand Coulee will struggle to climb into the lower to mid 40s today.
323 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 Canadian high pressure will continue to drift southeast across the forecast area this evening and tonight, providing for another chilly night across the area, with sub freezing temps again. Not expecting temps to be as cold as last night, as weak southerly breezes on the west side of the high will lead to slightly warmer mins. Upper ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the rest of the weekend, with a gradual return to southerly winds and moderating temps. This will shift the upper ridge to the east of the area with upper flow becoming more southwesterly. Ketcham Fairly benign weather expected for the Wed into the start of the holiday weekend, as weak ridging will again move across the plains.
This will result in some slightly warmer temps across the west tonight with cooler reading in the east/southeast. South winds increase on Sunday with abundant sunshine expected to result in temps some 5 to 15 degrees warmer than today.
Strong low pressure over southern Ontario just northeast of the great lakes will move east towards northern New England.
244 PM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 A Pacific weather system will bring unsettled and cooler conditions to the region beginning Sunday.
1030 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 UPDATED AVIATION High pressure over Central and Southwest Montana will generally keep the area dry. However, moisture ahead of a low pressure trof to the west will cause some showers over the western mountains. Southwest flow aloft will persist as a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific and Pacific NW moves very slowly eastward through 18Z/Sun.
932 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 High pressure over Central and Southwest Montana will generally keep the area dry. However, moisture ahead of a low pressure trof to the west will cause some showers over the western mountains. However, the low clouds and fog with IFR conditions in the KCTB area are slow to dissipate.
1152 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 Quiet weather is expected this weekend as all models show a low amplitude ridge axis aloft nudging eastward into the central Rockys today. This ridge axis will remain west of Wyoming today with northwest flow aloft across the plains. warmest along and just east of the Laramie Range due to windy conditions and some warmer downslope flow. This may change on Sunday as the flow becomes more southwesterly behind the ridge axis. Believe it will be warmer than Saturday though especially as any remaining snowpack will likely melt during the day.
With mostly clear skies and light winds, expect a very rapid temperature drop over the fresh snow cover, but readings should level off or rebound slightly during the overnight hours, as southeasterly winds pick up behind the ridge and cloud cover increases a bit. Went with lows near, or even a bit below the colder end of guidance spectrum, ranging from around 10 above zero along the Buffalo Ridge to lower 20s in south central SD. Sunday should be a little warmer than today, with modest southeast winds and sunny to partly cloudy skies. However snow cover will hold readings back from full potential, and have shaved a degree or two from the model consensus for high temperatures over the snow pack, with expected readings from the lower 30s north of I-90 to lower 40s toward Sioux City-Storm Lake.
Quiet weather expected to start the week and upper ridge holds in place.
Other than the high clouds expected today across mainly northeast OK. the weather should be mild this afternoon with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Low temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today's cool start. Low pressure system will start to deepen in the northern plains on Monday.
High pressure drifting east over the Great Lakes region today into tonight will provide dry quiet conditions to the area. Monday afternoon high temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this afternoon/s high temperatures.
Quiet weather with slowly increasing temperatures is expected for the next few days under the influence of high pressure. Sunny skies are expected today under high pressure. Used a bias corrected consensus for highs in the lower 70s south to mid 60s northeast. High pressure will slide east across the area during the short term. Monday night the upper ridge axis will move east and allow southwesterly flow aloft to establish itself over the area.
Another cool day expected with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 70s across the Interstate 30 corridor and the lower 80s elsewhere.
Over the wrn CONUS, the upper trough has begun to move east and de-amplify, resulting in upper-lvl diffluence over parts of West Texas and New Mexico. Thus, areas west are still favored for convection overnight, then shifting to the northwest zones Sunday as the upper trough passes thru. Otherwise, temps are still set to rebound to near-normal by Sunday, and to well-abv normal Monday thru the extended as the upper ridge builds over Mexico and South Texas.
High pressure will settle over the region this week providing cooler but dry weather. The back edge of the cloud deck associated with Matthew will work its way out of the eastern portion of the CWA by morning as a dry cold front moves through from the west. The pressure gradient between Matthew off the North Carolina coast and the sprawling ridge of high pressure from the great lakes down into the southeast this afternoon will keep conditions a bit on the breezy side this afternoon, but well below any kind of advisory criteria. Cool high pressure will dominate the weather for the first half of the week, providing clear skies but the coolest nighttime temps in quite a while as a low level modified polar air mass spreads down from the north.
There is the potential for up to an inch or more over the lowlands of the Palouse and central Idaho Panhandle, and a couple inches of rain the Panhandle mountains and the Cascade crest.
Airmass is about 5 degrees F warmer, but clouds could take off a couple of degrees. a zonal flow aloft with a weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region. especially in the high country. dry and warm with a lee side trough present.