Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This morning, radar and satellite showing warm front starting to exit to the northeast with trailing showers approaching the WA/OR Blue Mountains and some light showers making it over the peaks of the WA Cascades in the northwest part of the forecast area. Ahead of the next warm front, expect a high cloud deck to overspread the forecast area from the southwest, with precip chances not picking up until later this afternoon.
Calm winds at most locations will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s by sunrise. High clouds will fill in from the west late tonight and Sunday morning, as a low pressure system organizes along the northwest Gulf coast and a more northern stream system moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
Light snow wrapping around the low continues to impact northeast Illinois and the Chicago metro. The clouds will keep temps above freezing today, but below freezing temps will return tonight as slightly colder air moves into the area. However, with the eastern half of the US still in a broad trough, a short wave drops through the area early in the week. Will bring ceilings to MVFR at KSPI in a couple hours, but will be more pessimistic with the improvement elsewhere due to proximity of the low and residual light snow.
237 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 An upper low is over Michigan and a weak upper trough is moving over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. A weak cold front is expected to move into mostly the northern and eastern sections of the CWA beginning this evening leading to colder temperatures for tonight.
327 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 A low pressure system will bring wintry precipitation to the Ohio Valley tonight.
145 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Pesky closed low that has been giving the area on/off light snow past couple days finally making an, albeit very slow, move eastward away from the region per latest GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis. For tonight, patchy light snow should shut off this evening as that closed low loses its influence on our area and as high pressure builds in from MN.
249 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Wrap around clouds associated with the Great Lakes upper low continue to drift across north Ga. At this time no winter precipitation is expected as temperatures should remain above freezing.
/JNE/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: A stratus deck associated with cyclonic flow around a slowly departing closed low has been tenacious over north central MS.
The low, associated with a mid-level impulse, will move east-southeast along the Red River Valley tonight. A weak cold frontal passage in our area late tonight/early Sunday morning. With mostly sunny skies on Sunday, afternoon highs are expected to range from in the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 70s across the southern half of our area.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 51 41 51 35 / 10 20 60 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 50 40 48 34 / 10 20 70 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 30 49 39 48 33 / 10 20 60 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 46 36 44 34 / 20 10 60 70 20.
A cold front continues to push through the region today. Winds become more northerly behind the front allowing for some cooler and drier air to filter down the peninsula. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s around the Lake region, to mid to upper 40s across the interior, low to mid 50s across the metro and upper 50s near the coast. High pressure builds over the northern Gulf behind the FROPA with sunny and clear skies on Sunday. This will allow for seasonable, benign weather to end the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s.
This has kept temperatures cooler than forecast and had trimmed back highs earlier. Tonight the mid level trough moving into Oklahoma will continue to weaken as it moves into Arkansas while a northern stream trough moves into north Dakota.
235 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Discussion/Marine Low pressure will move through Lower Michigan tonight with scattered snow showers continuing through Sunday. Expect mostly snow showers tonight into Sunday but accums should be negligible as surfaces are above freezing.
155 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 (This evening through Sunday) Mid-level trough continues to push east from the High Plains this afternoon.
Meanwhile, high clouds ahead of an upper level trough are beginning to spread into the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River. The upper trough will begin to push into the region after midnight tonight. Rain will begin to taper off from west to east late Sunday evening has the trough pushes east.
Temperatures may get a degree or two warmer than the current forecast. We still should see a little light snow over the ridges, but it may be minimal. Expect readings to reach the lower 50s over most of the plains, with 20s to lower 30s over most of the mountains. Winds will increase across the plains (mostly east of the I-25 Corridor) behind the trough passage this morning. Sunday will be a mild day across the forecast area as an upper ridge builds over the state. The plains should see high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s while the mountains top out in the 20s to mid 30s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Light snow wrapping around the low continues to impact northeast Illinois and the Chicago metro. The clouds will keep temps above freezing today, but below freezing temps will return tonight as slightly colder air moves into the area. However, with the eastern half of the US still in a broad trough, a short wave drops through the area early in the week.
915 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 To remove mention of patchy freezing fog and increase sky. are all above freezing except Idabel right at 32 still.
Tonight and Sunday Dry northwesterly upper flow expected tonight through Sunday behind a departing upper trough and an upper ridge building in over the southwestern states and Rockies.
1250 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Cold front pushed through overnight and behind it high pressure is building in. Sunday will be another nice day with high pressure in control but on the other side of the Gulf of Mexico a low pressure system will be forming.
Forecast soundings confirm that moisture through the column is not overly impressive, and with a small warm nose and fairly efficient surface cold layer, could very well see a brief period of snow, sleet, or even freezing rain/drizzle if the ice bearing layer is compromised. High temperatures in most locations should push to near or above the freezing mark. For now, the forecast will reflect small light snow or flurry chances but may need to add some patchy freezing drizzle at some point.
Light winds, snowpack, and cloud cover will keep highs in the low to mid 30s.
317 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Cloudy skies that have persisted throughout today look to continue tomorrow as the low pressure system to our north slowly meanders east of the Ohio Valley. As we head into Sunday, the region will become situated between the exiting low pressure system and a weak wave upstream, allowing for dry conditions to prevail for much of the day with highs in the mid 40s.
1008 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Mild and dry through the rest of the day with increasing clouds from west to east ahead of an approaching upper trof. /issued 421 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/ High pressure centered overhead is yielding clear skies and calm winds this morning.
231 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Early this afternoon, satellite showed a mature upper level low centered over the main peninsula of Michigan and slowly sliding towards the northeast. While most of our area has cleared out the low level clouds with this system, some lingering low clouds were still present over central Missouri. Despite the afternoon sunshine, some intermittent high clouds are now pushing into the area, which will keep high temperatures on the lower side of model guidance.
(This evening through Sunday) Mid-level trough continues to push east from the High Plains this afternoon.
Highs should top out around 60 or the low 60s over most of the area. Central portions of the state will stay a little cooler with highs in the 50s.
Our next cold front will be along late tomorrow afternoon, so look for rain areas to move out from West to East during late Sunday morning in OK/TX and perhaps much of the afternoon for AR/LA. Then with high pressure and Northwest winds, expect more 30s North and low to mid 40s South expected Sunday night.
532 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 VFR conditions will prevail initially this evening as mid-level clouds filter into the area from the southwest ahead of a weak low pressure system in Texas. Our next cold front will be along late tomorrow afternoon, so look for rain areas to move out from West to East during late Sunday morning in OK/TX and perhaps much of the afternoon for AR/LA. Then with high pressure and Northwest winds, expect more 30s North and low to mid 40s South expected Sunday night.
556 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Pesky closed low that has been giving the area on/off light snow past couple days finally making an, albeit very slow, move eastward away from the region per latest GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis. For tonight, patchy light snow should shut off this evening as that closed low loses its influence on our area and as high pressure builds in from MN.
317 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Cloudy skies tonight, with continued chances of light snow over the higher elevations of northern Iron county. Northerly flow will continue through tonight in the higher levels of the atmosphere, keeping cold temperatures in place. The NAM and RAP model soundings both indicate drier air developing in the ice bearing layer aloft, leading to the potential for freezing drizzle over Iron county Sunday. Sunday night lows will fall to the middle teens north to the lower 20s south.
Spotty rain is expected to start late this afternoon and continue this evening as a cold front moves through Sunday morning with limited accumulations.
/Issued 249 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020/ Wrap around clouds associated with the Great Lakes upper low continue to drift across north Ga. At this time no winter precipitation is expected as temperatures should remain above freezing.
552 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 The last local influence of the low over the eastern Great Lakes is being seen in the form of widely scattered light snow showers east of the I-35 corridor today. Hi-res models have been persistent in featuring a warm nose leading to a band of light freezing rain over the eastern Dakotas with this feature. Would not rule out a period of freezing precipitation in the western part of the forecast area, but it would most likely be very light (freezing drizzle).
631 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Aviation Low pressure will move through Lower Michigan tonight with scattered snow showers continuing through Sunday. Expect mostly snow showers tonight into Sunday but accums should be negligible as surfaces are above freezing.
756 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 We had a very tranquil and beautiful weather day in the wake of last night's cold front with barely a cloud in the sky. Strong daytime mixing this afternoon resulted in some minor adjustments to winds along with T/Td/RH as we sufficiently dried out the lower layer of the atmosphere and brought down some breezy winds. High pressure over the northern Gulf slides off to the east, resulting in northerly winds to gradually shift to the northeast on Sunday.
Large scale pattern shows a closed mid level low over MI, another closed low over southern Saskatchewan and a open wave with a weak circulation center in southwest KS. Weak ridging was in place over the far western US. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure stretched from MO up into western MN. Much milder air was noted west of a warm front that was located from the western Dakotas into western KS. Even warmer temps are possible with decent mixing due to northwest winds, but probability of that seemed fairly low at this time.
With temperatures hovering just below freezing, slick roadways due to black ice are possible. Freezing rain does not look as likely with this system since it arrives closer to mid day and surface temperatures will be slightly warmer.
/issued 1250 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020/ Cold front pushed through overnight and behind it high pressure is building in. Sunday will be another nice day with high pressure in control but on the other side of the Gulf of Mexico a low pressure system will be forming.
If winds go calm and skies clear early, there would be much better potential for widespread dense freezing fog.
257 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020 Upper level ridge will build into Colorado overnight and through the day on Sunday, keeping mainly dry and mild conditions in place across the state the next 24 hrs. Could still see a flurry or two this evening over the higher peaks of the central mountains before activity ends toward midnight, though not expecting any accumulating snow. Overnight low temps will continue to trend upward slightly, with weak downslope flow keeping areas along and just west of I-25 near freezing through much of the night.
Cloudy skies tonight, with continued chances of light snow over the higher elevations of northern Iron county. Northerly flow will continue through tonight in the higher levels of the atmosphere, keeping cold temperatures in place. The NAM and RAP model soundings both indicate drier air developing in the ice bearing layer aloft, leading to the potential for freezing drizzle over Iron county Sunday. Sunday night lows will fall to the middle teens north to the lower 20s south.
The upper low over ern Lower MI will move across the lower Great Lakes tnt, while a vorticity maximum just north of Lake Superior will move swd into ne WI, then ewd to the nrn portion of Lower MI by 12Z Sun.
718 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 High pressure will build south of the area through Sunday.
326 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had an area of closed low pressure over northeastern Indiana with a trough of low pressure extending south into the Florida Panhandle. West of this feature, ridging was present from western South Dakota into southern Manitoba. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s. This will lead to highs in the lower 40s in the east, to the mid 50s in the southwest. By Sunday night, a closed low will track southeast across eastern South Dakota into western Iowa, forcing a back door cold front into the forecast area from the northeast.
With no real mixing expected overnight and into tomorrow, expect more fog development with the low clouds hanging on.
608 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Dry high pressure will continue to build into the area through the remainder of the weekend.
Even so the low cloud bases that have plagued the area over the last couple of days will begin to lift overnight southwest to northeast as the influence of the low in our area gradually lessens.
324 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020 High pressure aloft will settle over Utah through the weekend.
Cloudy skies that have persisted throughout today look to continue tomorrow as the low pressure system to our north slowly meanders east of the Ohio Valley. As we head into Sunday, the region will become situated between the exiting low pressure system and a weak wave upstream, allowing for dry conditions to prevail for much of the day with highs in the mid 40s.
Low pressure in place across the Great Lakes will move east to Quebec tonight. High pressure over Louisiana extending northward to the Central Plains will build across the Ohio valley on Sunday.
627 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Correction to Aviation section Cloudy skies that have persisted throughout today look to continue tomorrow as the low pressure system to our north slowly meanders east of the Ohio Valley. As we head into Sunday, the region will become situated between the exiting low pressure system and a weak wave upstream, allowing for dry conditions to prevail for much of the day with highs in the mid 40s.
650 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 High pressure will build from the lower MS Valley eastward across the Southeast through the weekend. A drier NW flow will be found behind the trough's passage. Lows generally in the lower to mid 30s expected. With dry air in place and little in the way of appreciable isentropic forcing across the area, Sunday should end up a pleasant day with slightly cooler temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light winds.
/issued 237 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/ An upper low is over Michigan and a weak upper trough is moving over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. A weak cold front is expected to move into mostly the northern and eastern sections of the CWA beginning this evening leading to colder temperatures for tonight.
Northwest flow brings a weak short wave trough across the region early Sunday with a possibility of scattered clouds with the apex of the upper ridge to move in late Sunday ahead of the next larger scale upper trough to affect the region early next work week.
516 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Early this afternoon, satellite showed a mature upper level low centered over the main peninsula of Michigan and slowly sliding towards the northeast. While most of our area has cleared out the low level clouds with this system, some lingering low clouds were still present over central Missouri. Despite the afternoon sunshine, some intermittent high clouds are now pushing into the area, which will keep high temperatures on the lower side of model guidance.
The newer nighttime microphysics view actually sees somewhat better through the high clouds. With generally clear skies in the evening (sort of downplaying the cirrus overspreading the area), night time temps should cool to around freezing.
308 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 The last local influence of the low over the eastern Great Lakes is being seen in the form of widely scattered light snow showers east of the I-35 corridor today. Hi-res models have been persistent in featuring a warm nose leading to a band of light freezing rain over the eastern Dakotas with this feature. Would not rule out a period of freezing precipitation in the western part of the forecast area, but it would most likely be very light (freezing drizzle).
Light and variable winds expected under the ridge axis, but becoming increasingly southerly through the overnight and into the morning hours. Keeping to MVFR for tomorrow afternoon until some consistency shows up in the high res runs.
The scattered/isolated light showers that were in place earlier have all but ended as the negatively tilted trough and associated low lift further north and into the Great Lakes and New England area. Overnight, a weak upper level disturbance will move into West TN which will allow weak ridging to build in out ahead of this system across Mississippi and Alabama. The polar jet still resides over our area as the base of the trough is just to our north. The highest elevations across the aforementioned areas could see up to a few tenths of an inch of snow but most will see none. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s across northern areas and near 50 down in the southern TN Valley.
544 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had an area of closed low pressure over northeastern Indiana with a trough of low pressure extending south into the Florida Panhandle. West of this feature, ridging was present from western South Dakota into southern Manitoba. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s. This will lead to highs in the lower 40s in the east, to the mid 50s in the southwest. By Sunday night, a closed low will track southeast across eastern South Dakota into western Iowa, forcing a back door cold front into the forecast area from the northeast.
301 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Light snow and freezing drizzle tonight and tomorrow highlight the short term forecast. This afternoon, a closed mid-level low was centered over south- central Saskatchewan with an attendant surface pressure trough placed over west-central North Dakota. Ongoing precipitation this afternoon responsible for light freezing rain reports was moving along a band of low level frontogenesis associated with baroclinic zone along the pressure trough. This evening, the mid-level low will move southeast with a 700mb wave and surface cold front moving from northwest North Dakota through the southeast overnight and Sunday. Periods of light snow and freezing drizzle will be possible during this period, sometimes alternating. As you move away from this track to the northeast and southwest, DGZ growth looks less likely with longer periods of freezing drizzle potential.
Temperatures right around freezing should keep pavement from becoming icy, but if temps drop a little lower than expected, light ice is possible. The upper low over ern Lower MI will move across the lower Great Lakes tnt, while a vorticity maximum just north of Lake Superior will move swd into ne WI, then ewd to the nrn portion of Lower MI by 12Z Sun.
Northwest flow brings a weak short wave trough across the region early Sunday with a possibility of scattered clouds with the apex of the upper ridge to move in late Sunday ahead of the next larger scale upper trough to affect the region early next work week. There continue to be a couple upper level short wave troughs that will move through the forecast area.
Rain has increased across S TX this afternoon and is expected to continue through this evening as an upper trough swings across the region. As the upper trough continues to move east, drier mid/upper level air will filter across the area with rain ending from west to east overnight into early Sunday morning. A weak frontal boundary associated with the upper trough will also move across S TX and is expected to reach the coastline by mid morning Sunday. Not much in the way of colder air behind the frontal boundary as highs will be warmer on Sunday than today's values, especially with increasing sunshine.
1132 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 High pressure will build in very slowly from the north through the next few days.
257 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 235 AM CST The threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue to wane across the area early this morning. However, expect cloud cover to hang on over the area, with highs today in the lower to mid 30s.
with only the Palouse area and points southward benefiting from some downslope drying easterly winds feeding into the deepening low pressure off the coast.
1013 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Pesky closed low that has been giving the area on/off light snow past couple days finally making an, albeit very slow, move eastward away from the region per latest GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis. For tonight, patchy light snow should shut off this evening as that closed low loses its influence on our area and as high pressure builds in from MN.
1110 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had an area of closed low pressure over northeastern Indiana with a trough of low pressure extending south into the Florida Panhandle. West of this feature, ridging was present from western South Dakota into southern Manitoba. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s. This will lead to highs in the lower 40s in the east, to the mid 50s in the southwest. By Sunday night, a closed low will track southeast across eastern South Dakota into western Iowa, forcing a back door cold front into the forecast area from the northeast.
Highs will be within a few degrees on either side of yesterday's realized values generally in the low/mid 60s as skies become mostly to partly cloudy.
This is due to another little vorticity lobe rotating around the departing low pressure system. The clouds are keeping temperatures mild tonight, with min temps generally right around the freezing mark. This means that freezing drizzle is a possibility, but will not be a widespread problem. Modest west to northwest winds will prevail tonight through Sunday night as low pressure slowly moves across southeast Canada. Temperatures right around freezing should keep pavement from becoming icy, but if temps drop a little lower than expected, light ice is possible. The upper low over ern Lower MI will move across the lower Great Lakes tnt, while a vorticity maximum just north of Lake Superior will move swd into ne WI, then ewd to the nrn portion of Lower MI by 12Z Sun.
Followed the warmer MAV guidance, with most locations ending up within a few degrees of 60 (normal is mid 40s). Get outdoors and enjoy! Mostly clear and quiet tonight as a ridge axis approaches from the west.