Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1020 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 Another mostly cloudy and cool day is unfolding across central Illinois, thanks to a slow-moving upper trough extending from Wisconsin southwestward to Kansas. Think any clear spots that develop will fill back in due to adequately steep lapse rates in the vicinity of the approaching upper trough axis. While cooler/drier post-frontal air has overspread all of central & southeast Illinois since yesterday, the threat for a few showers will persist today. Forecast area remains on the southern side of a sheared upper-level trof that extends from eastern Canada into the southwestern United States. Otherwise, abundant cloud cover and cool northerly low-level flow support cooler than normal highs today, with most locations topping out in the 50s.
645 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into the central Plains.
421 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016 High pressure will be over the region today resulting in above normal temperatures. The high pressure weather pattern shifts east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler, unsettled pattern.
Other strong-severe surface-based storms should develop in the afternoon/evening hours along the cold front in central/eastern nebraska.
/Tonight through Monday/ Large area of high pressure across the eastern US to continue to slide east loosening its grip on the state, while return flow continues ahead of a deepening upper level trough meandering through the southern prairie provinces of Canada. Southerly flow to really pick up ahead of this system into tonight/Tuesday with the theta-e ridge nosing into ERN NE/WRN IA by Tuesday afternoon.
631 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure currently centered over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain in control across the area through Tuesday. For Tuesday night, will be watching a rather vigorous mid-level low/trough push into southern Canada/Northern Plains. Southwest flow in the middle levels pulls a trough northeastward toward the region along with a push of 850mb moisture transport.
Upper level low along the Alberta Saskatchewan border is going to drive the weather over Montana and northern Wyoming for the next few days. This low is slowly moving southward and will push a couple of fronts through the area. Tuesday will be breezy and dry but cooler behind the front as the upper low moves slightly southeastward into southern Saskatchewan. Winds will be more northwesterly as opposed to southwesterly and temperatures about 15 degrees cooler but humidity minimums will still have a chance to reach 20 percent for areas south and east of the Musselshell river. Another front swings through the area Tuesday night and this begins to tap into some higher humidity air swinging around the upper low and winds should decrease more noticeably Tuesday night.
The high pressure ridge axis is slipping further to the east and the surface winds will become increasingly more southerly as the evening progresses and through tomorrow. particularly in the east, closer to the ridge axis and the lighter winds. The overall weather pattern shows an upper low in eastern British Columbia progressing eastward, with a strong upper ridge in the east- southeastern U.
The first shot at some activity will be across the southern counties as the next low pressure system builds off the Colorado Rockies. Low temperatures range from the low 60s across the western counties to the upper 60s across the eastern counties. As this low pressure system becomes more developed by Tuesday morning and moves over eastern Nebraska, the western fringes will continue to impact the eastern portions of our forecast area throughout the day. Temperatures for Tuesday will range from the low 80s across the northwest (Sheridan and western Cherry counties) up to the low 90s east of a Valentine to Imperial line. Models are in good agreement with the timing of the cold front, and has it extending from roughly O'Neill through Broken Bow and Stockville early Tuesday evening.
A dry ridge of high pressure will extend across the region through mid week. -GIH Previous discussion as of 150 pm Monday: In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridging extends across the GOM and Deep South. -CBL Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north the area on Tuesday. Lows a few degrees warmer than tonight, generally in the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure will keep dry weather across central Indiana through Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than the previous night due to weak southeasterly surface winds and weak low-mid level warm air advection. tonight will not be as cool as last night with most locations in the lower 60s. mainly because the low- level warm advection gets offset by the accompanied increase in sky cover.
In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridging extends across the GOM and Deep South. Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north the area on Tuesday. Lows a few degrees warmer than tonight, generally in the lower to mid 60s.
Abundant sunshine with dew points in the mid to upper 70s will lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. It will feel much warmer this afternoon with heat index values ranging between 101-105. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge centered over the Southeast plains will keep close to average mid level warm temperatures over the region.
The highest PoPs Tuesday will be over the western half of the CWA, ranging from 40% along/west of the Mississippi River to 20% farther east toward the Tennessee River Valley. Temperatures tomorrow will be near or just a few degrees warmer than today's highs, with max temps in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The Bermuda High will build over the southeast CONUS through the work-week with a large scale trough over the southwest. As we move into the weekend, the southwest trough will lift out, with the subtropical ridge elongating across the southern states. With mid-level heights approaching 595 dam, we'll see warmer temperatures across the Mid-South. In general, we're looking for temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Johnson Stalled front located south of the area will move back north as a warm front on Tuesday.
936 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies through Tuesday as it moves east across the region. After cool morning lows, highs Tuesday should return to just above seasonal levels on the western side of the high.
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure remains in place overhead, providing clear skies and calm winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 90 72 90 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 88 70 89 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 62 89 69 90 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 85 64 87 / 0 0 0 10.
Southerly winds will also become more established once the warm front has passed from south to north. High pressure remained common across the Gulf Coast states this evening. The tightening of the pressure gradient between these two features over the Southern Plains will allow for an increase in the low level jet overnight.
Upper trough over the northern plains slowly crosses the Upper Great Lakes late this week. At the sfc, low pressure crossing the Northern Plains on Tue aftn will shift a warm front across the Upper Great Lakes Tue night into Wed. Secondary cold front bringing in H85 temps down to 6-7C moves in for Thu. Just a small chance of showers as the next push of cooler air arrives. Daytime temps Thu and Fri within the trough aloft should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rest of forecast will be influenced by high building across late in the week which could bring cooler nights inland Thu Night and Fri night. As the high moves east, return flow kicks in for the weekend.
758 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to produce fair weather tonight through Tuesday evening.
Early morning water vapor imagery together with GFS 500 mb heights and winds identified the trough across the OK/TX panhandle. The highest threat for severe weather will be near initiation across NE/IA, but there is a marginal risk for storms across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
As of 230z, a stalled frontal boundary was located across central MS from TVR to MEI with a midlevel 594dam subtropical ridge across the Deep South.
Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. Latest guidance indicates overnight lows could be cooler than forecast. Ridge continues to build in from the west. Benign weather will continue through the short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast.
/issued 306 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/ An upper level jet streak is rounding the base of a short wave trough, moving across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico. Rich deep layer moisture is being drawn northward from South Texas and northern Mexico as south to southwest mid/upper level flow increases on the interface between the upper trough and the subtropical high centered over the Gulf Coast states. Tonight's lows should be warmer than the last several nights, mainly as a response to increased surface dew point temperatures.
As we go throughout the remainder of the week, an upper level high pressure system anchored over the southeastern states will provide a quasi-stationary upper level pattern over the region. An upper level trough over New Mexico will continue to advect low pressure impulses over the region providing more chances of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Warmer temperatures aloft with limited deep layer moisture has stymied convection from late afternoon into this evening.
The cold front is across the south, with cold being a very weak term as temperatures behind the front are just as warm as ahead of the front. This afternoon convection is being enhanced by an mcv that is moving through the northwest right now behind the cold front.
913 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016 Deep low pressure system remains nearly stationary over east central Alberta, with the trof axis currently making its way through central MT. The clouds will head eastward with the trof axis overnight, with some clearing to follow, but next push of moisture/clouds from Alberta is already reaching Glacier County and will spread over the Hiline later tonight. Deep upper-level trough continues to moves across western/central MT through tonight. Broader moisture behind the trough axis will move into north central MT and the Rocky Mtn Front areas tomorrow morning, with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing during the aftn between KCTB/KGTF.
A cold front across central Montana this afternoon is forecast to enter western North Dakota late tonight, and move through central North Dakota Tuesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest and north central North Dakota late tonight into Tuesday morning with the cold front, with additional storms possible tonight potentially across the James River Valley in deeper moisture and forced by the low level jet as depicted by the 15-19 UTC RAP iterations.
Broad high pressure aloft will shut down the precip for the next several days although isolated chances will continue.
739 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A slightly cooler and drier air mass will filter into the area through mid week before the upper ridge builds back over the southeastern states. Large high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will move east overnight. A dry and cool air mass is associated with the area of high pressure. Weak isentropic lift and weak short wave trough moving through the area suggests a few showers may develop.
/ISSUED / SE Texas was on the western edge of a 500 mb ridge that was centered near northern FL today.
1008 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Upper low moving into southern Alberta this afternoon with very hot and dry conditions across eastern Montana. As the upper trof slides east overnight, a few showers could be triggered by the 700mb front. Colder air will spread east with the trof for temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler for Tuesday.
Models begin to crank up the low level jet into east central ND in the 03z-06z Tue time frame, then slowly lift it NNE overnight. Question then turns to additional tstm development along the cold front, which moves into the Red River Valley region Tue afternoon. Models continue to be in pretty good agreement regarding the timing of Tuesday's cold front and associated precipitation.
755 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will dominate through most of the week.
A Cold front was just pushing into northwest ND. Toward morning other mesoscale models like the 22 AUG 12Z NSSL WRF indicate convection developing near Minot ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front across central Montana this afternoon is forecast to enter western North Dakota late tonight, and move through central North Dakota Tuesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest and north central North Dakota late tonight into Tuesday morning with the cold front, with additional storms possible tonight potentially across the James River Valley in deeper moisture and forced by the low level jet as depicted by the 15-19 UTC RAP iterations.
With moisture levels still on the high side and convective temperatures reachable, have gone ahead and added VCSH near the coast in the morning and inland in the afternoon.
mid level ridging begins to build into North Texas from the east which will also allow much drier mid level air to spread into the Southern Plains. Temperatures will also warm back into the lower 90s area wide.
1202 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 SYNOPSIS A cold front will move east into the Maritimes this tonight.
tonight will not be as cool as last night with most locations in the lower 60s. mainly because the low- level warm advection gets offset by the accompanied increase in sky cover.
1107 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure currently centered over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain in control across the area through Tuesday. For Tuesday night, will be watching a rather vigorous mid-level low/trough push into southern Canada/Northern Plains. Southwest flow in the middle levels pulls a trough northeastward toward the region along with a push of 850mb moisture transport.
Expect a dry day for Tuesday along with warmer and more humid conditions as upper heights continue to build ahead of the strong trough dropping into the Northern Plains. Day time high temperatures to get into the lower to mid 80s for at least one day.
Weak closed low and associated vorticity maxima will arrive on the KS/CO border by 7 pm.
A slight warming trend can be expected through midweek as high pressure builds off of the California Coast. Conditions cool further late in the week as another upper level trough impacts the West Coast. Mostly sunny skies prevail over inland areas this afternoon as the mid/upper level low that brought isolated rain showers to the region this morning pushes inland over southern California.
High pressure over both the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys brought nice weather to E Iowa/NW Illinois/NE Missouri today. Lows are forecast to be warmer than last night. Tuesday night: A strong upper level trough will be tracking across the northern Rockies and upper Midwest.
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 IFR/LIFR ceilings possible across most terminal sites overnight due to a lingering cold front and a saturated low-level airmass.
1255 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions with limited cloud coverage.
Latest guidance shows the cold front through the area soon enough to keep winds below critical thresholds in the afternoon. Surface analysis showing a cold front off to the west. Leeside trough lays over the Nebraska Panhandle.
900 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016 A weakening of low level onshore flow is expected as the upper level low pressure exits to the east, while an upper level high pressure begins to strengthen across Western Washington.
15Z surface analysis shows a decaying cold front has stalled out just north of our forecast area. The consensus of our local hi-res guidance is that convection will become more widespread as the afternoon continues, with the highest activity today across north Florida and in southeast Alabama, though there is at least a 40% chance over all of the inland zones in our forecast area. Highs today will peak in the low to mid 90s, but with a very moist air mass in place, it will feel more like 100-105. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate coastline.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016/ SE Texas was on the western edge of a 500 mb ridge that was centered near northern FL today.
1013 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A slightly cooler and drier air mass will filter into the area through mid week before the upper ridge builds back over the southeastern states. Large high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will move east overnight. A dry and cool air mass is associated with the area of high pressure. Current dewpoints ranged from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Weak isentropic lift and weak short wave trough moving through the area suggests a few showers may develop.
Blended the GFS/ECMWF/HRRR guidance during the morning hours to depict the higher probability chances in the western four counties of Southeast Missouri, mainly along and west of Poplar Bluff - Piedmont Missouri line. Quiet night, as high pressure moves slowly east.
742 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
Surface analysis showing a cold front off to the west. Leeside trough lays over the Nebraska Panhandle.
A slight warming trend can be expected through midweek as high pressure builds off of the California coast. Conditions cool further late in the week as another upper level trough impacts the West Coast. The upper level low that brought midlevel moisture to the area last night has moved inland taking the moisture with it.
755 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 One last cool night before warmer and more humid air moves into the region.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a large area of high pressure will progress eastward through the Ohio Valley overnight. In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located near the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico tonight.
1153 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Clear skies and light winds will then prevail through the morning under the influence of dry air and high pressure. The high will slide east on Tuesday, allowing for the development of light sw winds.
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Cool high pressure builds into the area from the west tonight and Tuesday.
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 SYNOPSIS A cold front will move east into the Maritimes this tonight.
1016 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Update/Marine High pressure will continue to produce fair weather tonight through Tuesday evening.
With an upper level trough of low pressure closer to the region by 0Z, mid-level temps should cool off allowing for convection to develop.
/issued 137 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/ Southwest flow aloft will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west Texas through the upcoming week, as the region remains sandwiched between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and a persistent ua trough over the western ConUS. Will keep PoPs going most areas, and most periods, through the week under this regime as models also bring an assortment of perturbations/MCVs either north around the western fringe of the ua ridge, or northeastward ahead of, or associated with, the ua trough to the west.
There are still a few mid and high clouds around due to a large low pressure system over southwest Canada. Fair weather is expected to continue with light winds through most of the rest of the week, even though a broad upper trough is expected to dig southward mainly east of the CWA. There will be a slow warming trend despite the upper trough, but it is not expected to become excessively hot.
641 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 The high pressure ridge axis is slipping further to the east and the surface winds will become increasingly more southerly as the evening progresses and through tomorrow. particularly in the east, closer to the ridge axis and the lighter winds. The overall weather pattern shows an upper low in eastern British Columbia progressing eastward, with a strong upper ridge in the east- southeastern U.
702 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure remains overhead.
High pressure remained common across the Gulf Coast states this evening. The tightening of the pressure gradient between these two features over the Southern Plains will allow for an increase in the low level jet overnight.
especially across the NW AR sites when thunder chances will increase at that time along and ahead of a northward advancing warm front. Southerly winds will also become more established once the warm front has passed. /Issued 335 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/ Scattered convection ongoing across NE TX is near the sfc warm front and this feature will lift northward tonight through Tues increasing precip chances areawide. The weak cold front slated to push into NE OK Wed night has continued to show less southward progression w/ subsequent model solutions and it is likely this boundary makes only a meager push beyond the OK/KS border.
(Issued 227 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016) Today has a break from the heat and humidity with temps at 2 pm in the lower 80s with low 60 dewpoints. A cdfnt stretches across srn MS/AL/GA with a large upper high pressure system covering portions of the sern US.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows a closed low located over Alberta moving slowly southeast. Broad weak troughing is present across the western CONUS with weak ridging in the east. Dew points in the low to mid 70s have already moved back into south- central Oklahoma. This northward moisture surge/advancing warm front will result in deeper moisture and increasing instability later tonight.
752 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies through Tuesday as it moves east across the region. After cool morning lows, highs Tuesday should return to just above seasonal levels on the western side of the high.
Despite instability storm coverage was overall lower than yesterday and even less is expected tomorrow as an upper high builds. Despite upper ridging building into the area, mid level warm nose does not appear strong enough to completely preclude convection, so am still expecting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through the period.
623 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Aloft: Subtropical high pres was over Nrn Mex with a ridge extending NNE to Hudson Bay. This high (594 contour) will expand NE into the Cntrl Plains thru tomorrow. The lows will drift a little NE of their current positions. but remain essentially trapped within the longwave trof that extends from Cntrl Canada SW into the Ern Pac. This should force the front to lift back N as a warm front into the Nrn Plains tomorrow. With the ridge overhead. The remaining trof will deep over the Great Lakes and Ern USA Tue-Fri. This will force the high to decrease in extent but become oriented more N-S near 105W longitude as the longwaves amplify. There appears to be just too much ridging/subsidence/warm air aloft and a lack of upr-lvl support.
However, moderate to fresh W/SW breeze will pick back up by midnight as a low/mid lvl trof works its way down from the Mid Atlc into the Deep South. Westerly winds should start out 15-20 knots but then the pressure gradient will start to ease by midday as a frontal trough approaches from the north.