Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2016 An upper low is spinning over southern Manitoba, with another one off the coast of British Columbia, and ridging in between. At the surface, a trough/stationary boundary stretches across the region. Upper ridge will build over the central CONUS on Saturday. Boundary will shift slightly northeastward, allowing warmer air to move into the area. Southerly winds will increase ahead of an approaching trough Saturday night, keeping lows mainly in the 40s.
600 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 A strong cold front has cleared the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon with lingering strato-cumulus clouds in its wake. The clear skies and high pressure building in from the northwest will then result in crisp overnight low temperatures. That high pressure will move off to our east resulting in a return to low level southerly flow into early next work week.
Quiet weather expected for the weekend as high pressure remains in control.
333 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 A moderately strong cold front is thru all of our region with gusty NW surface winds behind it. High pressure centered currently over central KS will build into our region tonight and then slowly exit late on Saturday. By 12z/Sat, the expected position of the RIDGE axis is expected to be favorable for ideal radiational cooling for areas N and W of STL metro and went with min temps below MOS, favoring values in the upper 30s to around 40. Elsewhere, MOS was more closely followed, with values in the lower to mid 40s. With maximum sunshine on Saturday for early October, such as it is, tended to favor the higher MOS values of upper 60s to near 70 for max temps.
813 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal flow through most of the nrn CONUS between a trough over nrn Manitoba and a ridge through the southeast CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from nw Ontario through the nw MN into nrn South Dakota with srly flow ahead of the front over the upper MS valley and nrn Great Lakes. Friday, The cold front is expected to sag into Upper Michigan and provide the focus for additional shra/tsra development as daytime heating increases.
Thunderstorms formed again along the Sierra Cascade crest this afternoon as a weak upper low spun along the central California coast. Dang A weak upper low currently centered over Northern California will shift southward today.
Strong cold front still expected to surge through the region Fri afternoon/Fri night. By 18z Fri the cold front will stretch from south central Nebraska into SW KS with this feature along the KS Turnpike by 06z Sat, finally exiting se KS Sat morning. Should see temps slowly moderate on Sun back into the low 80s. A cold front will slice southward into central Kansas Friday afternoon, into a very moist and unstable environment with some upper support.
Cold front has pushed into northwest Nebraska already. A prefrontal trough across western Nebraska has been the focus for some scattered showers. Also some showers have popped up behind the cold front. Main focus is the passage of the strong cold front tonight and to a lesser extent the prefrontal trough. Behind the front cooler air settles across the region however models continue to show some instability along with qpf. Highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler with forecast following close mos guidance in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Upper level trough in western Montana has cleared out most of the smoke in southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, with greatly improved visibility. Upper level trough, moving across Western Montana this evening, has cleared out the smoke from much of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho.
818 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Weak upper ridging will continue over the region through tonight with a lee-side trough at the surface. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.
At 3 pm CDT Thursday a cold front extended from northern Minnesota southwest through eastern South Dakota and will continue moving east. A large region of high pressure will build into Montana and the Dakotas tonight. At h500MB a trough extended from near Hudson Bay southwest into Montana. This cold front has pushed the majority of the instability southeast of the region so any thunderstorms will be widely scattered to isolated this evening.
1049 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A cold front will move east of the region overnight.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), Latest IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm depict a nearly stretched out leftover axis of a TUTT near the Keys (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) as compared with 24 hours prior. In the middle levels, fairly weak ridging has returned at 500 mb across the Western Atlantic between 30 and 35 North and across the Florida Peninsula. At the surface and in the lower levels, (Surface to 700 mb), weak surface ridging is in place from near about 30 North 60 West all the way to North Florida. Surface ridging is a bit more weak already than anticipated.
1155 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Weak upper ridging will continue over the region through tonight with a lee-side trough at the surface. Overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s.
617 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Surface map this afternoon has a warm front extending from near Sioux Falls SD through Waterloo IA and then into northwestern IL. Increasing moisture transport into/over the warm front aided by an approaching mid-level trough, per latest water vapor loop, was producing scattered thunderstorms across southern/central MN. moisture transport continues to increase over the warm front as it moves slowly northward to near I- 90 by pre-dawn hours. Focus then turns to incoming cold front Friday afternoon/night with 0-3km mucape pool of 3500-5500J/kg in place along/south of I-94.
Temps are much like they were yesterday at this time (in the low 80s near Meridian and mid/upper 70s everywhere else).
Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the chance of rain each day, any heavy rain that might lead to flash flooding, and finally a cooler than normal temperature forecast.
More organized showers and thunderstorms will approach the region Friday night from the northwest ahead of an advancing cold front.
Breezy conditions forecast again tomorrow, with winds from 140-150 degrees at 15kts with some gusts in the lower 20s. /issued 234 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): An elongated 500mb ridge across the western north Atlantic extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into south Texas and northeast Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA tonight into Friday even as low level moisture remains high across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands. Winds will be breezy Fri afternoon as the pressure gradient increases across the lower TX coast Friday.
1005 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 Vigorous upper level trough continues to dig south from Alberta into N-central MT this evening. Gusty N winds will gradually diminish over northern portions of the forecast area after midnight as high pressure settles over the region but may continue through the overnight period for areas S of I90. Hoenisch UPDATED 2335Z Upper level trough digging south from AB into MT will spread increasing moisture across the region tonight in NW flow aloft.
/issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper trough over the northern/central U. A sheared Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the western fringe of the ua ridge. Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat.
925 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area overnight and to the east coast by Friday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Friday.
1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 A cold front will move east of the region overnight.
Satellite and radar imagery showed the low pressure disturbance continuing to slide southeast along the divide.
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough. Weak upper ridging will continue over the region through tonight with a lee-side trough at the surface. Overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s.
A cold front will approach northeast OK just beyond the scope of this forecast. Thunderstorm chances increase Friday as a longwave trof is progged to drop southeast out of Canada into the Plains approaching the CWA. A trailing associated strong cold front.
Weak short wave troughs moving through southwest flow aloft will continue to coincide with ample moisture remaining in place across eastern Kentucky to allow for a continued threat of scattered convection through the short term. Another short wave trough will approach early Friday morning, allowing for an uptick in rain chances towards dawn from the southwest.
1145 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Surface map this afternoon has a warm front extending from near Sioux Falls SD through Waterloo IA and then into northwestern IL. Increasing moisture transport into/over the warm front aided by an approaching mid-level trough, per latest water vapor loop, was producing scattered thunderstorms across southern/central MN. moisture transport continues to increase over the warm front as it moves slowly northward to near I- 90 by pre-dawn hours. Focus then turns to incoming cold front Friday afternoon/night with 0-3km mucape pool of 3500-5500J/kg in place along/south of I-94.
819 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A cold front will move east of the region tonight.
In the atm lower levels, weak ridging influences centered across the Appalachians will continue to usher in low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 72 88 / 30 60 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 70 85 / 30 60 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 70 85 / 30 60 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 83 / 40 50 40 50.
Winds aloft are blowing in this manner due to the presence of a weak upper low just off the central California coast. Moisture will continue to flow westward across California through the weekend as the weak upper low drifts slowly south off Point Conception. SFO Bridge Approach.
Models and satellite water vapor loop are showing a mid/upper level trough moving across eastern Washington and northeast Oregon tonight into Friday morning. A low level jet associated with the trough with 20-30KT winds at 30 meters AGL will move into the Lower Columbia Basin from the north by around 11 PM this evening and spread southward across SE Washington overnight. This low level jet will introduce increasing surface winds tonight in the Washington Lower Columbia Basin with winds gusty at times. Northerly winds will continue at 10-15KT with higher gusts from late this evening through overnight at all TAF sites, except at KDLS due to a dry cold front moving through the area.
The ltst map analysis shows the Atlc ridge axis in proximity from around Daytona Beach to Ocala with light onshore flow occurring at the coastal sites. High pressure ridge axis will settle closer to the waters.
1104 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the region Friday.
A potent upper trough currently over southern Alberta will drop southward into northeast Montana this evening, driving widespread shower activity tonight over Phillips, Valley, counties, as well as those south of the Missouri river. By the afternoon shower activity will continue to push southward with the movement of the upper trough.
Widely scattered showers and storms may impact SPS and PNC before a cold front arrives during the evening hours.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s, with highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s. An upper trough will continue to develop and dig south, into the Rockies, and into the Plains this weekend.
An uptick in coverage this afternoon as the upper ridge continues to weaken over the area and some weak upper lift traverses across the tennessee valley.
Storms that formed this afternoon moved to the north as winds through the lower half of the atmosphere were from the south. /issued 359 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/ Please refer to our web site, Flood Warnings and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service for details on the major and record river flooding that is still ongoing on the lower end of the Amite River basin along with many areas of backwater flooding from Pointe Coupee Parish (False River area) to near Lake Maurepas. Overall, a fairly typical summer weather regime will persist into the weekend with a Bermuda ridge extending from the the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, showers will remain prevalent either at or in the vicnity of the terminal sites, with the highest coverage central and south. Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the chance of rain each day, any heavy rain that might lead to flash flooding, and finally a cooler than normal temperature forecast.
715 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area overnight and to the east coast by Friday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Friday.
A strong polar high pressure area has settled over the Central High Plains early this morning. High pressure will remain entrenched across the area through tonight allowing much below normal temperatures to persist across the area as well as dangerous wind chills readings falling below zero at times over central KS. As high pressure translates eastward away from the area on Friday, low level southerly winds will allow temperatures to begin to moderate.
308 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Deep cyclonic flow persists across the region with low pressure in southeastern Canada and expansive high pressure in the Plains the controlling surface features. The resultant gusty west-northwest surface winds will diminish this evening and especially overnight as high pressure gradually shifts eastward from the Plains.
200 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 High pressure will continue to build in across the CWFA through tomorrow.
generally partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies in lower clouds with blustery northwest winds of 15 to 25+ MPH high pressure from the northern plains continues to slide slowly southeast.
1252 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A cold front will move east of the Midlands this afternoon.
Even though the low temperatures was 3 below this morning, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures should warm high than 5 degrees.
Friday will be a much warmer day even though the morning will start out very cold. Progressive zonal flow will prevail through the weekend which will result in the development of a surface lee trough across the High Plains and the return of Gulf moisture.
/issued 548 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Mainly MVFR stratus expected across West Central Texas terminals into mid afternoon, although KSJT may briefly fall to IFR mid morning as a band of light snow/freezing rain and sleet moves through. With temperatures falling into the upper 20s in this region this morning, bridges and overpasses could become slick and icy. Light snow may mix in with the freezing rain later this morning as colder air aloft brings the atmosphere column below freezing. The City of San Angelo will likely fall to freezing around 9 AM and stay in the 30 to 32 range through the day, so no significant problems should occur. Lows in the lower 20s are expected tonight as skies clear and winds become light.
204 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A cold front is moving through the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. High pressure returns to the area Friday into the weekend.
244 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Plains with a weak trof moving through the Great Lakes. On Friday, high pressure from the Plains will move into the area. The high will allow a partial break up of the remaining clouds across the northeast half of the area. However, due to a warmer layer of air aloft, the possibility does exist that the clouds will remain across the area on Friday.
151 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 A short wave trough over northern and northeastern New Mexico will impact the western Panhandles tonight. Some very light snow or light freezing drizzle possible across the western portions of the forecast area between 06Z and 18Z Friday.
The pressure gradient continues to increase across the lower TX coast this afternoon with wind advisory conditions across the coastal sections of the CWA and borderline conditions inland. especially across portions of the lower Rio Grande valley late tonight into early Friday morning.
444 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 Latest surface analysis indicated a stationary boundary sitting along the Florida Straits and a cold front draped across the central Florida peninsula. On Friday, as the cold front continues to push south over our region, surface winds will shift to the north and northeast. Cooler air will also spread across South Florida with Forecast high temperatures around 10 degrees lower than todays.
1149 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Arctic high pressure continues to build southeast across the area this morning with a modest surface gradient keeping winds around 10-15kts with gusts still in the 20-25kt range. A few low clouds continue to drift along and east of the Missouri River and a few flurries were reported under these but should continue to drift east as dry high pressure continues to build overhead. The high pressure ridge will extend over the CWA by 12Z Friday with overnight lows tonight close to zero in many areas. Wind chill values through the day will likely be around 10-15 with highs in the lower 20s.
although afternoon temperatures have managed to (barely) breach the freezing mark across most locations.
1134 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Aloft: 00Z 500 mb analysis depicted a broad trof over the CONUS with its axis from WI-IA-KS. There is a weak trof moving into Nrn CA at this time. Its Srn ridge axis will drift E thru the fcst area tonight. Multi-layered clouds begin to invade from the W by midnight as the Wrn trof approaches. Winds will become calm or light/ variable as the ridge axis moves thru.
Have added PoPs to the northern mountains this morning as the higher peaks of central Wasatch already disappearing in light snow.
1225 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 Surface analysis shows area of center of high pressure is currently parked across the Central Plains and we are currently stuck in between. Radar returns have diminished across the area, and most of the higher based cumulus is starting to scatter out. Aloft, a deep trough remains poised across the CONUS, with an upper level low moving eastward into Quebec, with a short wave trough moving across the Midwest. Current temperatures are in the low 30s, with some upper 20s invading from far northern Kentucky. We start the period with high pressure in control at the surface.
Although iso at times sfc gusts to 15kts maybe possible especially thru 08/23Z per diurnal influences interacting with sfc pressure gradient, on the whole, sustained wind speeds should be in the 8-10kt range as broad sfc ridging influences continue to build into the mid state region. Swly upper level flow supporting bkn ci will become more nwly orientated and potentially drier after broad upper level trough passage across region by 09/12Z.
1226 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the week.
349 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Although some sunshine filtered though the high thin clouds today, it was still a chilly day across the area with temps 5 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday afternoon's temps.
400 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A upper level trough over the Great Lakes will pivot eastward across the region over the next couple of days.
/issued 957 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ Cold air advection continues across the region with temperatures currently in the upper 30s across east Texas and north Louisiana and in the low to mid 30s across the interstate 30 corridor.
They all keep the Desert Southwest under flat ridging/dry northwesterly flow aloft as the main long-wave trof remains positioned well off to our north, over central Canada and the central US, with very strong ridging building northward across the eastern Pacific into Alaska as time goes on.
Actually, global models handling current shsn area better than the high resolution models which are generally dry. If skies completely clear, look for temperatures to be around the low 20s below zero.
Influence of cold trough persists. While mid level trough trends a little less cyclonic across srn WI the influence of low level thermal trough will linger so will not be real quick to scour out the MVFR cigs esp with no clear signal from the LLVL RH progs and MOS. A large low pressure area will move across southern Canada but still bring brisk westerly winds to Lake MI into early Friday AM. The upper trough axis and PVA is currently exiting se WI.
1244 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A strong low pressure system moving slowly east across southeast Canada will cause cold west to northwest winds across the Great Lakes resulting in significant lake effect snow over southwest Michigan and far northern Indiana over the next couple of days, with scattered snow showers over northwest Ohio and most of the rest of northern Indiana.
420 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A cold front will move east of the Midlands this afternoon.
227 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A upper level trough over the Great Lakes will pivot eastward across the region over the next couple of days.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest.
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 An arctic cold front will move through the area today. The expansive arctic high pressure will dominate the eastern two- thirds of the country Friday and right on through the weekend.
Temperatures at 9 am were in the lower 30s across the higher elevations of NE AL and southern middle TN to the upper 30s across the western portion of the forecast area. High pressure continues to push southeast into the area on Friday.
137 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Cp based arctic high pressure at the surface will sweep its ridgeline across the Mississippi river valley through Friday. Trajectories and modified soundings/forecasts suggest High temps tmrw struggling toward the freezing mark, after FA-wide teens tonight.
Snow associated with a warm front moving through from Southwest to Northeast is currently falling in most of the Oregon zones, and is just now coming over the Owyhee mountains as of 10 am MST. A warm front associated with a weather system over northern California continues to push north toward our CWA.
1116 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A strong low pressure system moving slowly east across southeast Canada will cause cold west to northwest winds across the Great Lakes resulting in significant lake effect snow over southwest Michigan and far northern Indiana over the next couple of days, with scattered snow showers over northwest Ohio and most of the rest of northern Indiana.
257 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Arctic high pressure continues to settle into the Mid South today and will remain overhead through the remainder of the week before moving east by this weekend.