Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A dry high pressure system will continue to dominate the areas weather with mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures into Thursday.
Severe storm chances will remain on the low side overnight.
An upper level ridge over the Great Basin will sink south over the next 24 hours as an short wave trough moves across the Northern Plains. Plan on having the highest pops here. The short wave trough passing to the northeast of Colorado is expected to help trigger thunderstorms over northeast Colorado. Thursday night upper level high pressure will be centered over extreme southwestern Utah with a northwest flow aloft over Colorado. cooler and moist air behind the boundary could result in low clouds across the Plains.
754 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure builds in from the north tonight with easterly winds developing as the low producing today's rain drifts off the south. Thursday will be mostly sunny and seasonable, except a bit cooler along the Lake Superior shoreline due to the easterly winds where highs will be limited to the 60s. Afternoon clouds may produce a brief shower due to steep low level lapse rates combined with the cooler air moving in aloft, but at this point think it will be just virga or a brief sprinkle given lack of large-scale forcing and drier air moving in at low levels. Quiet start to the extended with high pressure building into the region.
A storm near TRI has brought dewpoints up to the lower 70s there, so will mention MVFR fog there tonight. Broken VFR cigs are expected at all sites through most of the day tomorrow as a low pressure system approaches from the west, with rain from this system approaching CHA and TYS in the late afternoon hours.
This should push the area of subsidence/mid-level ridging to the east. In addition, temperatures were also a little cooler over the southern half of the CWA due to earlier rainfall and have made mainly trend adjustments for that. However an upper high centered off the sern coast should provide enough subsidence to keep pcpn mainly sct over the taf sites early this evening.
Expect shower activity to end by midnight with low temperatures tonight in the low/mid 70s inland and upper 70s coast.
Best upward omega is progged toward the southeast ridges, so highest pops were forecast in that area.
1018 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. An upper level ridge remains along with a weak lee-side trough over the area. Large scale subsidence will allow for another hot day with 850 mb temperatures near or slightly warmer than previous days. The chance for showers and thunderstorms remains low with the ridge aloft and a drier atmosphere.
Unsettled weather will continue across the Midsouth overnight as a weak upper level low remains in place. Weak tropical upper low continues moving slowly north along the AR/MS border. Daytime heating and upper low combined to produce SHRA/TSRA. Upper low to continue lifting out tonight, with a larger-scale trough settling generally over the OH Valley area.
1159 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Ridge dominating the desert southwest. Northwest flow across the high plains. Train of disturbances riding the northern periphery of the ridge, which takes them over the CWA. Generally seasonal temperatures with 3 PM CDT in the lower to mid 80s. In and out of clouds and a slightly cooler airmass will result in temps a couple degrees cooler than today. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. lows in the upper 50s northwest to the low 60s southwest.
The high pressure ridge is building westward and drier air will block Monsoon moisture moving up into northern Arizona.
A west-northwest flow aloft will continue through Thursday with an upper high centered over the Southwestern U. This will result in mostly clear skies, light winds, and very warm afternoon temperatures with highs near 100F in the lowest valleys once again.
Ridge dominating the desert southwest. Northwest flow across the high plains. Train of disturbances riding the northern periphery of the ridge, which takes them over the CWA. Generally seasonal temperatures with 3 PM CDT in the lower to mid 80s. In and out of clouds and a slightly cooler airmass will result in temps a couple degrees cooler than today. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. lows in the upper 50s northwest to the low 60s southwest.
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Strong high pressure aloft will extend across the region through Thursday, bringing continued hot and humid conditions to central NC. Low temps tonight in the mid to upper 70s still appears to be on track, although based on where the aforementioned outflow stalled, it's possible that our southern-most counties may remain in the lower 80s for a good part of the night. A heat advisory has been issued for all of Central NC for Thursday The center of the mid/upper level anticyclone over the SE U. will shift ever so slightly eastward on Thursday, allowing the mid-level wave thats currently over the Lower MS Valley to open up and drift slowly NE, becoming increasingly sheared as it moves into the Central Appalachians Thursday night.
With the trough moving overhead, and a lower level inverted trough lingering over western Wisconsin into Thursday, will keep the chance of showers and storms going. A trough of low pressure will continue to push into the area overnight.
Significant convection is occurring over West Tennessee/Kentucky this hour as a strong upper trough draws closer to the mid state. Expect a lull in showers and storms this evening then more widespread showers/storms with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs developing late early Thursday morning as an area of low pressure moves across the region.
Even with the drier air aloft moisture remains in the lower levels from 700 mb and below with PW at nearly 2 inches.
1149 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 A cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas on Thursday.
537 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 Convection is starting to deepen over the Laramie Range and vicinity this afternoon as expected, with cu starting to bubble over the Pine Ridge and even the Cheyenne Ridge as well. Down south across the Cheyenne Ridge, stratus may develop in moist upslope flow. For Thursday, models continue to show a favorable setup for severe weather across the high plains.
This should push the area of subsidence/mid-level ridging to the east. In addition, temperatures were also a little cooler over the southern half of the CWA due to earlier rainfall and have made mainly trend adjustments for that.
A weak upper low pressure area will continue to track generally northward along the Mississippi River tonight. The weak upper low will be absorbed into the upper trough (currently over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest region) later tonight, with the trough slowly advancing eastward. The upper ridge centered just off the East Coast will gradually break down, with troughing dominating the eastern CONUS by the weekend.
A well stacked ridge complex is centered east of the Carolinas, as such, a 1017 mb surface axis extends west across the Florida Peninsula.
703 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and above average temperatures through the week. A large upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS and the Great Basin remains the prevailing weather feature for our area today resulting in another day of widespread triple digit heat for the San Joaquin Valley, southern Sierra foothills and Kern County deserts.
631 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Cold front extending from central MN into northern NE will push into the area tonight. Thus precip chances across the area remain slim at best tonight but with the front moving into the area, will still maintain a 20% chance, with all precip chances winding down by daybreak Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. Will go dry for Thursday with high pressure and northerly flow, with below normal temps in the lower to mid 80s. All precip chances remain well west of the forecast area across the High Plains.
/issued 558 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/ Remnant shear axis in the form of a filling upper trough continues to define itself across the Tenn Valley into the heart of the Four State Region into Southeast Texas attm. While the upper level trough lifts out into the Tenn Valley another weak disturbance aloft will shift south and east in its predecessors wake overnight tonight and that combined with a myriad of sfc based outflow boundaries could provide the necessary something the short term progs are hinting at. Weak upper trof will spill over the ern periphery of the Four Corners ridge and swd into our region tonight into Thursday, merging with the stalled ely wave present over ern LA.
645 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening, particularly along and south of I-70 where the low level convergence will be the strongest nearest the quasi-stationary front currently over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Lows tonight will likely fall be in the lower to mid 70s which is close to MOS lows.
The low stratus over the northern valley has been gradually eroding from all sides over the last few hours as sun angle increased during the afternoon and east winds picked up a tad. Best chance for headlines would be in NE ND where overnight continuation of snowmelt adds to the low level moisture. Low 40s in the northwest where some snow exists and a cooler start to the day.
/issued 1013 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017/ Easterly flow and high pressure continue to dominate tonight. Subsidence around this low will bring in a drier airmass across South Florida, which in combination with lighter east- northeast winds, look to limit Atlantic shower development. Highs will range from around 80 along the east coast to the low-mid 80s for the Gulf coast and interior.
An upper trough was approaching the area to the west and was generating scattered showers west of Billings. These showers will become more numerous as the trough approaches.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ The low pressure system that helped continue the abundance of cloud cover and showers across the south moved off to Illinois, being replaced by a weak inverted high pressure ridge moving into Western Iowa. While cloud cover will remain overnight limiting dense fog potential, with the ridge passing through have introduced patchy fog across a fair amount of the CWA, and especially the north where winds will be lightest.
455 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 An upper level low will slowly slide eastward into the Four Corners region tonight then into portions of the Southern Rockies tomorrow. This upslope flow in addition of increased moisture in the low to mid levels will lead to increasing cloudiness tonight with mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the lower 40s with highs tomorrow only reaching to around 50 degrees due to the mostly cloudy skies and precipitation.
Storms should be scattered in nature to start then congeal into more of a line feature as the base of the trough rotates through close to midnight. Conditions will gradually improve tomorrow as the trough pushes east and a ridge builds overhead, but low cigs are possible through much of the daytime hours.
Scattered light rain and snow showers in the higher terrain will end by sunset.
350 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Main forecast concern continues to be the strong upper level trough currently over the Great Basin. It still is expected to move southeast across the four corners region and into New Mexico tonight and Tuesday, with midlevel disturbances rounding the trough and moving north/northwest on the eastern edge of the trough. Sfc winds/mslp model analysis favor the inverted trough slightly more over the Laramie Valley for best sfc convergence and upslope flow though, but the differences between models are just enough to create a few degrees temperature difference across the area which will affect actual snow rates and accumulation, and thus resultant impacts. Less snow is forecast elsewhere in the high country (around 2-4") so think that can be handled with an Advisory later on.
At the surface we will continue to have high pressure ridging southwest from the Western Atlantic across the area with a rather light east to southeast synoptic flow remaining in place. Moisture will remain limited and with ridging building in aloft we will continue to see warm and dry weather with just some scattered to broken stratocumulus/altocumulus. Temperatures will remain above normal with lows tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s and highs on Tuesday climbing into the lower to mid 80s, expect mid to upper 70s close to the coast where the sea breeze will keep readings cooler.
237 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 The center of the low pressure system that brought rain late this weekend and earlier today has shifted eastward to eastern MO early this afternoon with just a few remnant showers near Fort Wood and Rolla. Large swath of cloud cover extending around the back side of the low pressure system will keep the area socked in with clouds through much of the evening and overnight hours before clearing out some on Tuesday. We still expect a break from precipitation to continue into Tuesday with upper level ridging building over the area.
High pressure moving in from the north keeps northerly winds early, becoming east southeast into Tuesday afternoon. The models are in good agreement in the mass fields with two more significant upper lows moving through the southern plains this forecast period.
Strong moisture advection will commence around midnight, as energetic closed low digs into NE Arizona by 7 am Tuesday. Rain is on the way! Model guidance in excellent agreement tracking closed low to central New Mexico by afternoon. Ahead of this cyclone, a strong and moist warm conveyor belt is expected, with widespread rain and embedded thunder blossoming across West Texas, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas through the day.
For the overnight hours, south to southeasterly flow in the low-levels will increase, bringing an increase in moisture to all areas. Attention will then turn to an upper level trough set to impact the region beginning Tuesday afternoon. I'm not completely sold on this solution as we should still have some good lift across the region with the upper low to our west.
By the afternoon, upper level ridging will begin to build in for the west, and skies should gradually clear through the afternoon and evening hours.
Surface temperatures will increase slightly on Tuesday as upper ridging develops over the region, rising into the lower 60s.
High pressure remains in control through the remainder of the week.
Subjective 12Z upper- air analysis indicates an upper-level trough over MO/AR toward Arklatex, with another trough upstream over CA/NV toward the Pacific Northwest. Little cold air was noted behind the low, with a thermal ridge in the western US.
Late afternoon Tuesday, the low levels begin to saturate in the northern region of southeast Texas, out ahead of the next upper level feature as it pushes into north Texas.
410 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week.
504 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 An area of low pressure will move along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line late tonight and Tuesday.
Surface cold front is stalled just northwest of forecast area with a band of stratus ahead of it.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA Atlantic high pressure will weaken through Tuesday.
303 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 High pressure will be the dominant feature tonight as it extends from south central Canada through the eastern plains. But deeper moisture will then move into our area ahead of the next upper low producing increasing cloud cover from west to east. However with the continued east to southeast fetch of low level air, the lowest layers may remain a bit dry for much of our forecast area, so precip chances will erode in our western zones.
310 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Clouds continue to linger this afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the wake of the cold front and associated upper level low that brought showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday into this morning.
406 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 An area of low pressure will move along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line late tonight and Tuesday.
A pre-frontal trough/convective line has developed just east of the MS river and is also moving eastward. In addition, the hi-res models bring in another round of storms overnight, mostly associated with the cold front.
An active forecast period is expected for Central Indiana as several troughs and ridges rotate through the area.
High res models have persistently shown the low cigs/fog across the north developing south with time tonight with the exception of the southwest on the other side of the frontal zone. Also, dry air associated with high pressure over northern/central Manitoba will eventually work into the area tonight eroding the areas of fog over my northeastern counties.
The low level jet is expected to strengthen tonight and provide for the risk of LLWS. Short wave ridging overhead today will move east tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging will only deliver a glancing blow to the region but with cooler temperatures due to easterly winds. Upper level winds will begin to back tonight in response to an approaching strong upper level trough currently moving onshore on the west coast. Low level moisture return will begin early Tuesday morning ahead of this trough.
201 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Aviation Low pressure will pull away from Lower Michigan today with showers ending.
Breezy conditions will continue tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region.
246 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was over southern Missouri while a ridge of high pressure was centered over Canada with the ridge axis nosing south into the Upper Midwest. Soundings show plenty of moisture trapped below the low level moisture and in the cyclonic flow, this was maintaining the clouds over the area. The models have been insistent in showing the ridge to continue nosing farther south and bringing in some drier air that allows the clouds to break up. The ridging aloft and at the surface will not last long over the Upper Midwest before the flow turns back to the southwest ahead of the upper level low coming out of the southern Rockies.
Despite its departure, afternoon visible satellite imagery showing plenty in the way of low-level cloud cover over the lower Missouri Valley, as moisture remains trapped below a developing subsidence inversion. This cloud cover shows little signs of departing anytime soon and as a result, overnight lows should remain in the lower to middle 40s across much of the area. Speaking of rain, get ready because the remainder of the work week look very unsettled as a developing upper trough seen over the Desert Southwest this afternoon slowly meanders east with time. Fcst models show this trough eventually closing off over the Desert Southwest as additional energy over the Pacific Northwest phases later tonight into Tuesday.
618 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Rain is expected tonight and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather is expected with mid week high pressure before low pressure returns rain to the forecast by late week. Low pressure is progged to track from the MS Valley to the OH valley by Tuesday morning. As high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, cooler and drier air will enter the region. Even this cooler air will still be slightly above normal.
129 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 More rain is expected tonight and Tuesday as another area of low pressure crosses the region. By this evening, showers with the next low pressure system are projected out of the west, and can be expected to persist into Tuesday before building high pressure in the wake of that systems cold front invokes suppression from the northwest later in the day.
556 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low pressure will track across southern New England before exiting the coast this evening.
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 The models were in good agreement with the track of the large upper level low pressure system moving out of the southwest U.
High pressure ridge axis will set up across western Arkansas tonight with light easterly flow.
A few drops of drizzle are possible during the late afternoon/ evening hours as low pressure tracks to our southeast.
108 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Main focus in the short term is the strong upper trough currently seen on WV imagery moving on shore the NW US coast. Models are in good agreement that this trough will dig into the SW US by tonight and form a closed low in/around the four corners region early Tuesday.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for counties along and north of I-20 until 9PM this evening-- As of 19Z/2PM, most areas were in the low 80Fs. Even with boundary-layer mixing, southerly winds were aiding in supporting surface dew points in the low 60Fs. Otherwise, there's plenty of CAPE spanning the hail growth zone, and large/severe-caliber hail is certainly doable with the strongest cells (quarter to golfball), which is where background storm rotation will come into play today, plus mid- level dry air coupled with the freezing level, wetbulb zero height.
131 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 A series of troughs will move through the area through early Tuesday and possibly trigger some showers and a few thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night.
314 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 An upper level trough continues to dig over the Great Basin this afternoon. Cloud cover has also helped to keep instability down as well, with afternoon and evening thunder appearing less likely ahead of the approaching trough. Impacts to travel will be greatest overnight and through the morning hours on Tuesday for those travelling over the higher passes.
154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Currently under brief ridging aloft but this will give way to a series of approaching upper troughs that will bring the possibility of storms. The first trough extending from the NW down across the Great Basin today develops into a cut off low tonight over the 4 corners region.
321 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Rain is expected tonight and Tuesday as low pressure crosses the region.
255 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 A cold front will cross the area late Tuesday.
458 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 An upper level trough continues to dig over the Great Basin this afternoon. Cloud cover has also helped to keep instability down as well, with afternoon and evening thunder appearing less likely ahead of the approaching trough. Impacts to travel will be greatest overnight and through the morning hours on Tuesday for those travelling over the higher passes.
Byrd It still appears that the closed lows train will continue with the potential for strong to severe storms and some widespread rain in the next 7 days.
1107 AM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Showers will linger over the region today behind an exiting cold front.
Visibilities should also drop off in response to the lower ceilings with most areas remaining between 1 and 3 miles.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 149 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 An upper level low will slowly slide eastward into the Four Corners region tonight then into portions of the Southern Rockies tomorrow. This upslope flow in addition of increased moisture in the low to mid levels will lead to increasing cloudiness tonight with mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the lower 40s with highs tomorrow only reaching to around 50 degrees due to the mostly cloudy skies and precipitation.
The atmosphere is caught in a repeating pattern with a highly amplified trough that digs over the west coast. Eventually this wave becomes cut off from the main flow as a northern stream ridge breaks onshore the Pacific Northwest. The cresting ridge sends the northern stream jet along the International border, leaving the Midwest in a split flow regime.