Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
417 PM MST Sat Dec 17 2016 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure centered over western ND. Lows tonight across northeast WY and much of far western SD will likely be in the late evening, with steady or slowly rising temperatures after midnight, as arctic high moves east of the area and west- southwest winds start to bring warmer air and some clouds into the area.
Arctic cold front and associated snow continues to progress southeastwarrd across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail this afternoon, along with patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle. /Issued 1052 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016/ Cold front has just about cleared the entire forecast area at this time, and will see falling temperatures at all locations the rest of today. There has been some patchy very light drizzle or freezing drizzle around, and this may continue for another hour or two. Recent visibility trends suggest a diminishing drizzle/freezing drizzle threat and little or no impacts are expected from freezing drizzle.
As for tonight, thinking really has changed very little as the bulk of the rain and storms will be behind the first push of the cold front. At this time, most of the precipitation should fall as rain with temperatures just above freezing in Marion, Winston, and Lamar counties. There could be a few cooler spots that hit freezing so we can not rule out an hour or two of freezing rain in those counties, but this should not be prolonged and little impact as surface and soil temperatures are well above freezing during this time, even if the air temperature at at or just below. The cold front continues to move southeastward through the area on Sunday, and exits Central AL Sunday evening.
Upper level ridge centered offshore with a northwest flow over the area.
Today through Sunday: Forecast Concerns: The intrusion of an arctic airmass, and the potential for winter weather impacts today through tonight as an upper trough traverses across the Kansas region. Areas of light freezing drizzle are possible this morning.
318 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 An upper level long wave trof was moving into northwest Minnesota at 20Z/2pm, while high pressure was located over the Dakotas. A northwest flow was occurring over the forecast area ahead of the high. The cold air from the high flowing over the warm water of Lake Superior, was producing lake effect snow showers, heavy at times, along the south shore. The upper level trof moves into eastern Wisconsin. This puts the region on the backside of the high and into a southwest flow. Warm air advection begins in the mid to late morning and a bit warmer temps will slowly arrive.
654 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A warm front will move north across the Midlands tonight. Above normal temperatures are expected into Sunday with ridge along the coast and south low level flow. A cold front will cross the region late Sunday and cold air damming will again develop.
Highs well below normal today, with areas of frost in the valleys and low deserts and below freezing temperatures in the high desert tonight. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 1 PM PST, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper- level trough stretching from New Mexico into the Great Lakes Region, and dry northwest flow aloft across CA.
Despite the ample sunshine, temperatures remained rather cool this afternoon with many locations in the lower 50s. Higher elevations remained in the 40s with the highest peaks of Monterey/San Benito in the 30s.
149 PM PST Sat Dec 17 2016 Freezing temperatures in the Valley this weekend with dry conditions. Northerly winds over the north end of the valley and parts of the west side of the valley may help to keep temperatures closer to the freezing mark so only wind sheltered areas would be susceptible to a hard freeze.
Poor flight conditions through the period as a strong cold front pushes through the area.
647 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Aviation A period of freezing drizzle will continue this afternoon across the southern forecast area.
Light accumulations of some combo of freezing rain, sleet and/or snow will make for a travel hazard tonight. In addition, wet spots on area roadways will freeze rapidly even where pcpn no longer falls, as temps drop so markedly and plunge well below the freezing mark tonight.
WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru central New Mexico, resulting in strong SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The upper trough is moving at a pretty good clip, and should be clearing the ern zones at around 00Z. Short-term models suggest winds will abate quickly w/the exit of the trough and loss of diurnal heating, so all wind warnings/advisories will be allowed to expire as scheduled. Unfortunately, this will end in a few hours as a strong Arctic cold front plows thru the region.
An intense cold front will advance west to east across the forecast area overnight. A very sharp cold front is quickly pushing south across North Texas and Arkansas. Texas is home to a plethora of extremes this afternoon with the front draped across the state, temperatures in the low 90s in the deep south, single digits and snow in the panhandle, and blowing dust with winds gusting near 50mph out west along the front.
Expecting moisture to pool just ahead of the strong arctic cold front late tonight so lower cigs and fog could pose an issue. Gusts upwards of 40 knots are very possible behind the front with cigs hovering in the low-end VFR range.
Behind the boundary, upper wave should touch off additional precipitation during the evening hours, with it gradually changing from light freezing rain to sleet to snow. A powerful cold front will move across the state this afternoon and early evening with an abrupt wind shift to the northwest.
627 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Arctic high pressure reigns supreme over the Northern Plains.
404 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Rain is expected late tonight in advance of an approaching cold front.
Much cooler temperatures this weekend with much of the area seeing temperatures at or below freezing on Sunday morning. Cold front has pushed through the area with post frontal isolated areas of rain and snow showers slowly diminishing across Cochise County.
These were the cooler models which are believed to be verifying better. Overall the temperature forecast is a couple of degrees cooler than the previous forecast.
256 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Strong cold front pushes through later tonight and Sunday with heavy rain. High pressure through mid week. Numerous showers and strong gusty winds are expected ahead of an approaching cold front. Although the high resolution models are faster with the onset of pcpn when compared with the synoptic models, all agree in pcpn amounts of 1 to 2 inches. Therefore, issue a Wind advisory for the higher elevations from Randolph and Pocahontas counties, south to southeast Raleigh county.
753 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A warm front will cross the region tonight. A cold front will then push through the Mid Atlantic Sunday. High pressure will return to the region for the first half of the week.
19Z surface obs show the the arctic high continuing to build south with the center of the ridge over the western Dakotas. Aloft, 19Z water vapor indicates a broad longwave trough over the U. Models show some energy moving across the state Sunday within the longwave trough aloft. Don't expected much of a warm up Sunday with the high sitting over eastern KS.
Very strong cold front was from KEVV to just north of Sikeston and Poplar Bluff, moving southeast steadily. Will maintain our Winter Weather Advisory for tonight as the precip transitions to a light freezing rain/freezing drizzle, sleet and possibly snow mix before ending. Bitter cold late tonight through Sunday night as Arctic high pressure gradually builds in.
336 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Streamers have been noted all day long off Lake Oahe, thanks to persistent northwest winds blowing over the relatively warmer lake waters.
536 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A warm front will move north across the Midlands tonight. Above normal temperatures are expected into Sunday with ridge along the coast and south low level flow. A cold front will cross the region late Sunday and cold air damming will again develop.
106 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Early-morning water vapor imagery revealed a positively tilted mid-level trough from the northern High Plains to lower Colorado Valley with a downstream, lower-amplitude perturbation rapidly moving away from the mid Missouri Valley. On Sunday, mid-level heights will rebound with the passage of the trough to our east.
A warm front moving into British Columbia through Sunday should give the northern part of Western Washington some areas of snow Sunday morning.
1248 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Mainly light freezing drizzle rain mixed at times with light snow will continue to create slick travel conditions on untreated roads. An arctic front will bring a return to more snow sleet and freezing rain changing to all snow late this afternoon into the evening hours.
1210 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Surface analysis indicates strong cold front just now beginning to enter far northern McCurtain County at the noon hour with warm and moist air mass south of the front across our CWA. Lake wind advisory remains in effect through early Sunday evening as strong southerly winds will continue to veer later this afternoon and tonight with gusty northwest winds quickly following in the wake of the cold front. /issued 540 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016/ A strong cold front will be the focus of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across area terminals.
H-triple-R has a line of strong convection developing by 22z along the Ohio River down into northeastern Arkansas and it will move eastward and jell with the convection here in Middle Tennessee producing locally heavy rainfall with a few storms producing damaging winds first over western areas and then gradually progress eastward tonight ahead of the cold front. Cold front will move into far northwest Middle Tennessee around 9 pm followed by sharply colder temperatures and progress eastward and into the Nashville area by midnight and onto the plateau by daybreak. In behind the front in additon to the sharply colder temperatures look for a change over to freezing rain in northwest Middle Tennessee from midnight to 6 am Sunday and over eastern and southern areas Sunday morning.
Streamers have been noted all day long off Lake Oahe, thanks to persistent northwest winds blowing over the relatively warmer lake waters.
The band of snow currently tracking across the area early this morning is located along the 700mb trough axis. Weak southwest surface winds could warm a few locations along the Buffalo Ridge above zero, but most of MN/WI will easily see below zero highs. After Sunday, the trough flattens out and the long wave pattern evolves into more of a zonal flow, which will take temperatures back up to near normal by mid week.
A Pacific cold front stretching across SW CO and SE UT will continue moving east and south and be east of the area this afternoon. A bit of a lull in the precipitation just before sunrise this morning will give way to a brief precipitation surge as the 500 mb trough and deformation zone moves over the area between about 7 am and 10 am. Have made no changes to the winter weather products which will all continue until 5 AM for the lower elevation of the CO northwest plateau and until 11 am this morning in the mountains.
Now transitioning from moderate deep layer QG ascent with the upper trough to moderate downward qg forcing with post trough northwest flow and mid-level WAA. Formation of this mtn wave with increasing mtn top stability late tonight will strengthen wly ridgetop winds with speeds above timberline peaking in the 40-50mph range Sunday morning.
421 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Arctic cold front continues to bear down on the region with I-30 in sight as of 22Z this afternoon. The temperature gradient is quite stark on either side of the boundary with freezing temps just northwest of the DFW metroplex while readings ahead of the front are in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees over much of our CWA.
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Surface to mid-level ridge of high pressure over the region early this morning with increasing mid/high level clouds streaming in per IR satellite imagery. This mid/high level cloud was in response to increasing 850-700mb isentropic lift/moisture transport ahead of low pressure moving out of the Northern Rockies. A dry lower level airmass will be in place as the ridge of high pressure shifts slowly east, so a lot of this lift will go into cloud production with perhaps a few showers mainly west of the Mississippi River. Rain moves out Wednesday night as the low pulls toward lower MI/Indiana.
948 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will build over the area through mid week.
1155 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 High pressure will extend into our region today through Wednesday.
1015 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Seasonal and dry high pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
Strengthening high pressure aloft across the Great Basin will bring drier conditions and warm temperatures to the region midweek.
High pressure and drying conditions will move in behind an exiting low pressure system today.
Expecting highs mainly in the lower 80s with continued warm advection and downsloping SW winds.
High pressure building into the region at the surface and aloft will keep the weather quiet across the region today. Expect seasonably warm temperatures to continue, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
Pacific moisture will increase from west to east today as an upper level low rotates across the West Coast. The first wave which is currently across the Desert Southwest will move into the Central Plains tonight and allow a weak cold front to move south. The cold front is progged by nearly all models to remain north of the Red River. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west behind the mid week short wave and remain in place through the weekend.
For today, the region will be on the southern edge of high pressure nosing in from the north. High pressure will shift east of the region by Wednesday morning with winds shifting to southerly.
Weak cold front then moves into northwest parts of the area late tonight.
A cold front will approach northeast Oklahoma late tonight.
741 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair and cool weather today. Then rain arrives late tonight and persists through Wednesday night as low pressure moves through. Forecast issues are for thunder chances across the south and precip type across the north as low pressure moves through Lower Michigan beginning tonight. GFS model soundings are about 1 degree C cooler than yesterday and wet bulb zero heights are near the ground at CAD. Will have mix with snow going across the northern tier, primarily on Wednesday night as the low tracks east and cold advection begins. Cannot rule out some light accums across the high ground of Osceola County.
734 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather until advancing low pressure returns rain chances to the region on Wednesday night. By tonight, building high pressure will veer, and lighten the wind sufficiently for the stratocu layer to dissipate. As a deepening Great Lakes low pressure system approaches Wednesday, a warm front will lift across the area.
This, combined with an area of strong high pressure building down the eastern seaboard, will begin a steady uptick in onshore surface winds later today and tonight. boating conditions will deteriorate as reinforcing high pressure builds south from the Great Lakes. E/NE winds 10 knots except 10-15 knots along the coast south of the Cape combined with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s will produce generally good dispersions.
1233 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
At 8 am CDT a warm frontal boundary extended from low pressure across western South Dakota through eastern Nebraska. During the day today a short wave trough will move from Wyoming through the northern plains. Plenty of moisture expected from the low level jet should bring some moderate rainfall to the James Valley, where chances of rain showers are likely - especially this afternoon and evening.
Early morning satellite data shows an increase in cloud cover along the Rio Grande, with skies remaining mostly clear farther east along the Highway 77 corridor. We will need to monitor the Highway 77 corridor and the coastal plains as some patchy dense fog may develop toward sunrise. An upper trough currently moving through the desert southwest will translate eastward into west Texas today. Some weak lift associated with this trough could lead to some isolated showers this afternoon for areas northwest of an Eagle Pass to Harper line. The above mentioned upper trough axis will move east of the region by Wednesday afternoon. With an upper level ridge building in it's wake, we will go with a dry forecast for all areas on Wednesday.
Plenty of moisture expected from the low level jet should bring some moderate rainfall to the James Valley, where chances of rain showers are likely - especially this afternoon and evening.
High pressure will ridge across the area from the north today with upper ridging also in place.
Strong high pressure will bring a drying trend the remainder of the week along with above normal temperatures for late October. A ridge of high pressure aloft will regain control of the weather pattern over the desert southwest.
Later today more broad and stronger forcing for vertical ascent will move in from the west, in conjunction with the mid/upper level trough, but most associated precipitation will reach our forecast area tonight. Confidence High Short wave currently over Nevada will cruise over the H500 ridge now cross the Plains and amplify this evening near Iowa as it begins to encounter the backside of the east coast H500 trough. Sufficient height falls and increasing moisture transport as well as warmer air will aid in thunderstorm development overnight. surface warm front aligning east to west over the corridor as well.
730 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
1048 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
High pressure continues to dominate the region resulting in clear skies and light winds. An upper ridge over the plains continues to shift east towards the Mississippi River, bringing a bit more subsidence than yesterday. This will mean temps a bit higher than yesterday, ranging from the low to mid 80s over the area(well above seasonal). Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s expected, upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.
The NAM remains slightly farther north with the higher QPF compared with the GFS/ECMWF/GEM, but based on model consensus, confidence in higher totals decreases with northward extent.
918 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Wednesday morning.
After Wednesday, a mid and upper ridge centered over northern Mexico will build east into Texas and the Southern Plains.
Any clouds will consist of nothing more than some cirrus incoming from the west accompanying an upper level trof later in the day. further to the south temps are hovering in the lower 50s. High pressure extends from the Great Lakes down into the southern states and as far west as Texas.
705 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Warmer than normal temperatures through much of the period, and precipitation chances this evening through Wednesday morning.
952 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through midweek.
At this point it appears to be at least a marginal threat for severe storm development mainly south of the I-80 corridor along a lifting warm front where effective shear/instability will be maximized.
OVC250 ahead of shrtwv trof with moist low levels.
With aftn temps rising some 12 to 15 degrees from current readings, aftn highs around 80 to the lower 80s appear on track. /issued 428 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/ Water vapor imagery reveals upper ridge setting up over the middle of the country with broad troughing exiting the east coast. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will continue to shift way from our region over the SECONUS as its effects will not be felt for us due to the encroaching ridge which has shunted the front eastward. Any fog will quickly diminish by mid morning as south to southeast winds kick in and temperatures quickly climb into the afternoon, eventually topping out in the lower 80s at most areas.
Large upper level low pressure system off the west coast will continue the threat for precipitation across the region today. Precipitation shifts northward tonight and exiting the forecast area Wednesday morning as the upper level ridge begins to rebuild over the Intermountain West. Southerly winds and mostly clear skies will help push temperatures into the low 70s on Wednesday (about 10-15 degrees above normal).
Surface wise, an expansive area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to along the Eastern United States and down the Sunshine State. Otherwise, skies will generally be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the lower 80s with northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph.
An upper level ridge will be building back over the area on Wed, and will then remain over the state into early Fri. On Sat and upper level trof wl be off the west coast. The ECMWF shows and upper level ridge ovr CO with another dry and warm day. The GFS shows the upper ridge shifted to the east of the area and westerly flow aloft bringing some pcpn into mainly the western mtns. Then for Sun the GFS shows a broad upper trof ovr the western U. The ECMWF is slower moving the trof eastward, and keeps CO dry on Sun.
High pressure ridging will continue through the short term especially for the day Wednesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 50 76 57 / 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 44 75 55 / 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 44 74 55 / 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 39 72 47 / 0 0 0 20.
Mid-level ridging continues to move into the region as noted by water vapor imagery early this morning with ample higher level clouds spilling into north-central Texas. Moisture continues to remain locked in the lowest 1km and overall we should have below normal PWATs in place.
The exception will be across the northeastern CWA where a warm front will be in the vicinity and few shower may be possible. There will be a drastic temperature gradient across the CWA as well due to this warm front. Storms are then expected to develop further south across eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas along the cold front. The recent trend has been to have the cold front lag across the area as we move into Wednesday morning as the best forcing remains well north of the area.
An upper ridge over the plains continues to shift east towards the Mississippi River, bringing a bit more subsidence than yesterday. This will mean temps a bit higher than yesterday, ranging from the low to mid 80s over the area(well above seasonal). Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s expected, upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.
551 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE An upper level trough will track eastward along the CO/NM border today with some showers and thunderstorms favoring the northern and central mountains northwestward. Short wave trough approaching NM early this morning and will cross the state today, followed quickly by drier air.
1035 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Upper level high pressure covers the region with quiet weather continuing.
847 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016 A weak upper wave is pushing through the ridge, helping to produce some scattered showers across portions of western SD this morning. Upper ridge axis is now crossing the nrn Plains with SW flow aloft moving in. Surface analysis shows a trough across ern MT into wrn SD with southerly winds across cntrl SD and westerly becoming northwesterly winds across ne WY. Highs will reach the low 60s to mid 70s with the warmest spots across sw to scntrl SD. Upper ridging will be reinforced across the region Wednesday with dry and mild weather continuing. Highs will reach the low 60s to low 70s.