Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Literally no change needed to the overnight forecast as high pressure shifts eastward. Upper trough will continue to be the main player in our weather over the next several days, although flow will become progressively more zonal, with higher heights owing to some warming and increasing instability through midweek.
449 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure centered near Bermuda with a ridge extending into the Mid Atlantic Region will bring fair and mainly dry weather for the bulk of today before an area of slowly weakening showers and thunderstorms arrives from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes region tonight. Humidity and the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a slow moving cold front slides southeast across the region.
334 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure will give us one more dry day today. Low pressure will move into the area from the Great Lakes and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. High pressure and a developing southwest flow will control our weather in the near term. Weak boundary left behind by the complex will be the focus of some surface convergence and with the added instability of the lowering heights and heating will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. Sfc temps are expected to range in the low to mid 60s Wed morning, then rise into the low/mid 80s Wed afternoon. On Thurs, temps are expected to range in the low/mid 60s during the morning then rise into the uppr 70s/low 80s across much of central NY, and low/mid 80s across NEPA.
A weak trough will bring slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures for the interior portions of Northwest California while coastal communities remain influenced by the marine layer.
600 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure will give us one more dry day today. Low pressure will move into the area from the Great Lakes and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. High pressure and a developing southwest flow will control our weather in the near term. Weak boundary left behind by the complex will be the focus of some surface convergence and with the added instability of the lowering heights and heating will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. Sfc temps are expected to range in the low to mid 60s Wed morning, then rise into the low/mid 80s Wed afternoon. On Thurs, temps are expected to range in the low/mid 60s during the morning then rise into the uppr 70s/low 80s across much of central NY, and low/mid 80s across NEPA.
A weak upper trough will move into the area today, deepening the marine layer and cooling highs a few degrees. A weak upper trough will move over the area today with increased low level onshore flow.
High temperatures will be near normal on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s for many valleys across western Montana and central Idaho.
A cooler day for Monday as a weak but generally dry front moves inland.
/Pelatti 06Z TAFS: A trof will pass over the aviation area tomorrow and allow for a repeat of afternoon and evening gusty southwest and west winds at TAF sites. High clouds will accompany the trof passage with VFR conditions continuing.
At the surface, high pressures is overhead with light winds at the surface. This drier air will also lead to a cooler than normal start to the day with temperatures this morning starting out in the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the region. Despite the cooler than normal start to the day, sunny skies will quickly push temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s during the afternoon.
This is certainly the sign the old front is already washing out and even coming back north - with the higher dew points knocking on the Triangle's door overnight. In the north and west, one more night of lower humidity and slightly below normal lows for July (mid 60s) before the higher dew points arrive Monday night. High temps will be similar to today or perhaps a degree or 2 warmer. The subtropical ridge pushing inland from the Atlantic, coupled with southerly return flow at the surface will keep conditions hot and relatively dry through the middle of the week.
Little sensible weather to speak of this evening across the Tennessee Valley, due to broad, weak high pressure at the surface and very deep, very dry air aloft. 13") is near daily minimum or 10th percentile on the sounding climatology; observed surface dewpoints in the low-mid 60s are below normal but far from unprecedented. The forecast of clear skies and low temperatures in the mid 60s-- except for around 60 in normally-cooler eastern valleys--looks to be in good shape.
The strong upper ridge that has persisted across the area will begin to translate east today, leaving one more day with temperatures in the 90s and very low RH values below 20 percent this afternoon and evening. Latest 00z models show a weak trough over the area on Tuesday which will bring a reprieve from the heat with highs in the 80s on this day thanks to lower 500mb heights, and enough forcing for ascent to maintain isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for this period as well.
403 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten today, setting the stage for an active start to the work week. This will serve as a focus for convective development, first across the high country before spreading across the remainder of the CWA after 21z or so. Tuesday looks to be fairly typical for mid July for this area, on the edge of a ridge with only very weak ripples w/in the flow.
142 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Departing high pressure will still manage to keep the weather quiet through most of Monday. However, a low pressure area and its trailing cold front will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday.
540 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Aviation A wave of low pressure located in Iowa today will track eastward into northern Indiana by this evening.
112 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure will persist across the area through Monday. This will allow high pressure at the surface to cross the region and eventually give way to a large Bermuda high off the coast.
136 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure tonight. A high pressure system will provide another dry and cool night across the area. The upper trof loosens its grip over the area this week. This puts the area in the cross hairs for several disturbances to rotate though on the back side of the trof.
1201 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Issued at 257 CDT SUN JUL 9 2017 Heat remains the primary concern through the next several days as ridging over the western CONUS shifts eastward, sending a ~594 dm high over the Plains through midweek.
Another hot day with a strong ridge firmly entrenched across the area with temperatures ranging from the low 90s west to near 100 again in the east. Upper-level trough slides into western Montana by this afternoon and begins to break down the ridge. Surface front will drive convection eastward off of the high terrain and through the Billings area between 4 and 7 PM. Large hail threat looks more limited to the far western zones including Livingston and Big Timber given the high freezing levels across much of central and eastern MT. Tuesday, temperatures should be several degrees cooler but still in the upper 80s to near 90 with only isolated thunderstorms expected over the far western zones.
Temperatures are generally on track with lows expected in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be around 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Pattern will show little change into the weekend due to a blocking pattern from the Northern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. This will keep the upper level ridge over the Western US with a trough over the Eastern US.
439 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: The larger synoptic pattern remains fairly typical for summertime with the western Atlantic ridge axis extending across Central Florida both at the surface and aloft. The feature to watch over the next two days will be the upper level wave currently rounding the base of the ridge across Cuba and the Bahamas. 500mb temps are forecasted to dip to -8C to -9C as the upper level low transits later today and tomorrow.
354 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Seasonal mid-July weather will prevail across the Midsouth this week, as ridging aloft gradually strengthens.
330 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The upper ridge which has been anchored over the Intermountain West for the past few weeks has begun to expand eastward. The ridge is progged to flatten with its axis extending east into the Southern Plains today and all the way to the Tennessee River Valley by Tuesday. The exception will be the east and southeast counties, due to a distinct weakness in the ridge which will linger over East Texas through at least mid week. This is likely the northern extent of an inverted upper trough over Mexico and South Texas.
307 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The upper ridge that has controlled the weather across our area over the past month will continue to do so through at least this forecast period. This boundary has pushed into the higher terrain this morning and may become a focus for storms this afternoon. This will be the only play today for storms as the ridge expands east over the region and keeps most locations dry. Dry and hot conditions continue into midweek before an inverted trough over E TX and moves west underneath the ridge.
333 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Surface analysis at 07Z had an area of low pressure over northwest Iowa with a frontal boundary extending west across Nebraska. The upper high over the southern Rockies will extend out into the central and southern Plains with the southern extent of the westerlies across Nebraska and Iowa. Main concern for the day will be heat with the thermal ridge building eastward across the CWA. Towards the end of the period, the western CONUS ridge will rebuild northward and place the region in northwesterly flow.
507 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure centered near Bermuda with a ridge extending into the Mid Atlantic Region will bring fair and mainly dry weather for the bulk of today before an area of slowly weakening showers and thunderstorms arrives from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes region tonight. Humidity and the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a slow moving cold front slides southeast across the region.
327 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Surface analysis at 07Z had an area of low pressure over northwest Iowa with a frontal boundary extending west across Nebraska. The upper high over the southern Rockies will extend out into the central and southern Plains with the southern extent of the westerlies across Nebraska and Iowa. Main concern for the day will be heat with the thermal ridge building eastward across the CWA. Towards the end of the period, the western CONUS ridge will rebuild northward and place the region in northwesterly flow.
Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies with a gentle to occasionally moderate east/southeast breeze, temperatures are in the lower 80s along the island chain.
Little to no convection is expected in the area tomorrow afternoon as an upper level ridge begins to expand out of the Four Corners and into the plains. Rain chances all but disappear for the remainder of the work week as the center of the high pressure ridge near the four-corners flattens and broadens to encompass much of the southern half of the country. This readjustment of the upper level pattern will allow drier air to move in aloft along with warmer temperatures. We will see afternoon highs a degree or two warmer Monday and Tuesday as the ridge axis settles overhead.
453 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017 An upper level ridge will be centered near the Four Corners region today. Temps will again be above average, with 90s to lower 100's over the plains and mostly 80s in the high valley locations.
The high pressure which has persisted over the region for weeks is finally going to be pushed eastward due to an oncoming trough over the Pacific NW. As this ridging breaks down and shifts eastward, the clockwise winds aloft will allow moisture to pump into the Four Corners and much of eastern Utah and western Colorado.
have trimmed a few degrees from the high temp forecast but went above latest MOS guidance.
Instability continues to be a concern, with the clear skies earlier in the day allowing for good differential heating, although with clouds thickening from west to east/southeast this has helped to inhibit the higher MUCAPE that was initially available. Northwest flow will persist through Mon, with weak surface ridging following along the backside of the departing trough. Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 50s, then slowly warm into the mid/upr 70s Mon. Weak gradient could allow a lake-breeze to develop Mon aftn, which may hold temps several degrees cooler.
/issued 354 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ Seasonal mid-July weather will prevail across the Midsouth this week, as ridging aloft gradually strengthens.
Weak Ridge axis remains across Central Florida with SW Steering flow across NE FL/SE GA. Similar to tonight convective debris clouds will linger through most of the night with muggy overnight lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 at the coast. Upper ridge starts to strengthen over GA/n FL Tue-Tue night.
257 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure exiting today. A cold front will be in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend. A high pressure system will provide another dry and cool night across the area.
Seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected today across the region, as highs warm into the low 90s. Tonight, lows will fall into the low to mid 70s for most.
247 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure will give us one more dry day today. Low pressure will move into the area from the Great Lakes and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. High pressure and a developing southwest flow will control our weather in the near term. Weak boundary left behind by the complex will be the focus of some surface convergnece and with the added instability of the lowering heights and heating will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. Broad troughing continues to be the main story. Moist and warm advection ahead of a cold front that passes Tuesday evening. Lows in the low and mid 60s. An upper level trough will be over the area most of the times with waves going through.
223 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected today across the region, as highs warm into the low 90s. Tonight, lows will fall into the low to mid 70s for most.
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The main concern for the next three days will remain the high temperatures and especially the high heat index values. A low pressure system over northern Iowa will cause an axis of WAA over northern Missouri to develop along the warm sector of a weak east- west oriented frontal boundary.
358 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging will continue to build in from the northwest today, suppressing most thunderstorm development. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s again today, with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
With less cloud cover expected potentially, valley locations in the east could fall rather quick and reach the low 40s tonight. Other than a minor ridge/valley temperature split across far eastern Kentucky where clouds may break a bit longer owing to greater moisture lifting north across the Bluegrass region toward the Ohio River, this regime should keep low temperatures spanning the 40s. One more warm day will materialize Monday downstream of the approaching system and associated cold front, with highs topping out in the 60s. Rain showers will continue to taper off toward the east Monday night as the upper low pushes toward the lower Great Lakes.
11 A cold front will pass through the region overnight tonight, bringing drier and breezy conditions in its wake.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across much of Eastern Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas through the evening hours as a cold front/dryline moves into the region. gusty southwest to west winds along with scattered/broken MVFR to low VFR ceilings look to spread through the CWA as the upper low lifts east northeast across the Central Plains. Very high low level shear exists in parts of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which is consistent with local ensembled updraft helicity progs, and as such, the highest chance of a tornado will be located in this region, likely to the south and east of a line from Ozark to Fort Smith to Wilburton to Antlers.
The upper-level trough responsible for the widespread clouds and even some showers and thunderstorms over the Nature Coast has now moved off into the Atlantic. A large area of high pressure is centered over the Mid- Atlantic providing a warmer and increasingly more humid easterly flow over the region. An upper-level trough and associated cold front will be moving into the central Gulf coast states on Monday while our ridge of high pressure weakens and slides eastward into the Atlantic. It looks like any showers associated with the cold front will hold off until after dark Monday. One potential issue during Monday will be the possible development of sea fog as dew point temperatures climb and the humid air moves over the cooler shelf waters.
614 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 For the ArkLaTex, VFR for now with looming wx just a couple of hrs away for TYR/GGG as dryline near DFW ahead of a cold front gathers up the Gulf moisture. Pacific high pressure to rebuild across the region allowing for mild conditions through the end of the work week.
Upper low center just about on the Kansas border, east of Lamar, near Hartman late this afternoon. With the low center still in the vicinity over western Kansas early this evening, areas of mainly light snow and blowing snow will continue over the far eastern plains this evening with some light additional accumulations. Bridges and overpasses will ice up first. Upper high pressure will rebuild rapidly over the area for a return to near or even above average temperatures most areas, despite the recent bit of snow we've had.
Clouds will begin to fill back into the area this evening as a low pressure system tracks eastward across Missouri. A line of convection is expected to develop over the next 2-3 hours along the trailing cold front. Wrap around clouds from the upper level low will begin to move into Eastern Arkansas during the late afternoon hours, spreading over the areas along and north of I-40 Monday Night. Colder air will also filter into the area on the backside of the upper low thus temperatures across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel may drop to around 50 degrees during the late afternoon hours on Monday.
A cold front brings more organized rainfall Monday night.
High pressure will build over Arizona this week with very cold low temperatures tonight. Upper level trough has moved into New Mexico this afternoon. Expect a warming trend starting Monday as a ridge rebuilds over the southwest.
541 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Very unclear forecast tonight as strong deepening upper level low moves from the intermountain west into the Central Plains tonight, and into the upper Midwest on Monday. Winds still look to be strong as low pressure system deepens tonight into Monday.
1027 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 A warm front pushing slowly northward across the area will bring occasional light rain or drizzle into early Monday.
Low pressure will strengthen over the Plains this evening and push northeast into the Great Lakes through early week, bringing showers and at times drizzle, with a slight chance for a rumble of thunder or two late tonight into Monday.
Surface warm front continues to very slowly mix northward this evening.
An upper level low pressure area deepening over northern Kansas will lift slowly northeast over southern Iowa through the near term. A light southerly to southeasterly wind flow will persist across the forecast area between these two features through Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. A strengthening upper level jet max south of the upper low will reach a maximum speed of 130 knots north of the forecast area by late Monday afternoon.
With the recent snowmelt, cooler temperatures, and mixing remaining weak through tomorrow morning, low level moisture continues to be sufficient enough to support areas of fog and low stratus. Low level moisture from snowmelt, lack of mixing and cooler temperatures are leading to dense fog development along the James Valley today. Tonight, it appears the low stratus/fog will overspread areas along, north and east of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River.
A weak cold front will push through the region later in the week, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and possible rain and mountain snow showers. As this system exits a weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the West Coast, with weak northerly gradients in place at the surface. The ridge aloft will produce a warming trend through the next 2-3 days, with highs on Monday warming by around 3-6 degrees.
NW or weakish flow aloft will preclude the development of lee trough and thus favoring an absence of the low level thermal ridge, resulting high temperatures that are mostly close to normal thru Wed. Mid-level flow does increase from the sw by Thur and a thermal ridge will develop across the wrn CWFA, thus warmer. Cooler temperatures do follow Sat-Sun in cool dry nw flow aloft. Strong winds from the base of an upper trough are mixing down to the surface.
A weak cold front will push through the region later in the week, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and possible rain and mountain snow showers. Weak high pressure continues to build in across the region today. In general, most locales are about 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday, except for the mountain areas where warming is closer to 5-10 degrees above yesterday. A cold front pushing into Southwest Oregon this afternoon will wash out north of the area on Monday.
806 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the northern Florida peninsula and southeastern states will support a light east-southeast wind flow across the forecast area the remainder of night. Increasing moisture (dew points climbing into the lower 60s) combined with light winds will lead to low cloud and fog development later tonight through early Monday morning, with some locally dense fog possible in some locations toward sunrise.
535 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 The main story for the next day will be developing low pressure system across the central Plains. This low will bring heavy snow and strong winds to north central Nebraska through Monday afternoon. Currently temperatures are hovering around freezing which has resulted in some light rain/freezing drizzle/freezing rain across portions of the I-80 corridor. Monday: The low pressure system will slowly push east throughout the morning.
/issued 228 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018/ High pressure currently centered overhead will shift offshore overnight in advance of a cold front. High pressure builds in quickly behind the front.
while the lower clouds and snow should mainly impact portions of eastern South Dakota and southern MN. than warm only into the lower to mid 20s on Monday.
Still looking like a good shot for some eastern valleys to decouple and drop into the lower 40s. With less cloud cover expected potentially, valley locations in the east could fall rather quick and reach the low 40s tonight. Other than a minor ridge/valley temperature split across far eastern Kentucky where clouds may break a bit longer owing to greater moisture lifting north across the Bluegrass region toward the Ohio River, this regime should keep low temperatures spanning the 40s. One more warm day will materialize Monday downstream of the approaching system and associated cold front, with highs topping out in the 60s. Rain showers will continue to taper off toward the east Monday night as the upper low pushes toward the lower Great Lakes.
829 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 A warm front pushing slowly northward across the area will bring occasional light rain or drizzle into early Monday.