Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At mid morning, remnant low pressure from Harvey was near Lexington, KY. Through the rest of the day, the remnants will be lifted northeast and absorbed into a mid latitude trough. Clear and dry air air wrapping in behind the low pressure system will bring us a lovely fall-like night with clear skies and lows in the 50s.
Rain chances are not particularly high, but this trough may provide just enough instability and ascent for isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Southwest Arkansas. Durg holiday weekend, only carrying isold aftn convection across mainly western portions of cwa, where a very weak upper low may exist over central/east TX. Deep upper trof will bring northerly flow aloft back into area, bringing first cold front of season into area quickly on Tue.
The bigger issues come on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Ridging building over the Northern Rockies will bring another hot and dry day to the area with high temperatures in the 90s expected for most places.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 60 84 62 / 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 58 81 59 / 50 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 58 81 59 / 70 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 56 79 57 / 70 20 10 0.
Clouds are expected to remain VFR much of the day, as the lower levels will take a while to saturate. Some models are even a little cooler than than the forecast, so something to consider if it looks like the sun will take the whole day off.
Low pressure is centered over central and eastern KY early this morning as extensive low and mid-level wrap-around moisture continues to rotate through Middle Tennessee. Thus, generally light precipitation will persist through the morning and even into the afternoon across the Upper Plateau before a strong upper trough finally pulls everything east of Middle Tennessee.
06Z surface data showed high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front ran from northwest Minnesota into South Dakota. The rain is moving into the drier air of the high so a gradual dissipation is expected.
943 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Trough of low pressure persists over the southeast U.
955 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 High pressure will cross the region today through tonight. Low pressure will cross the region Sunday night.
Satellite imagery shows a shallow upper-level ridge moving east across Montana. Moisture aloft riding over the top of the ridge and along the stationary boundary has found a focus for mostly high cloud development, and broken skies tonight. Low pressure over Hudson Bay will still influence our temperatures. But, with increasing heights from the west, colder temperature range across the northeast, then warmer in the southwest. Templer Previous discussion: The short term is going to be dominated by high pressure.
The main cold front and associated precip has surged east through the region, leaving the area open to brisk cold air advection in incoming ridge's tight pressure gradient. Aloft, sharply digging upper trof axis was also sliding to the east of the MS RVR Valley and toward the OH RVR Valley, driving long linear convective event down acrs those areas. after this trof pushes to the east, the upcoming week to be characterized by mainly dry weather with up and down temp trends. Northern plains ridge axis on track to slide southeastward acrs the area through Sunday morning. Upstream ridge axis will slide east-southeastward through the area, but take most of the day to do so.
Most of northern Arizona will dip below freezing except the lower elevations south of the Rim. Much of the high country will drop into the teens to mid 20s.
21Z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across the Tennessee valley and lower Mississippi valley.
446 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 A colder air mass has spread into the area behind a cold front that moved into the area earlier today. Winds will weaken and skies will clear this evening and tonight, allowing lows to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Sunny skies will occur on Sunday but a cooler air mass will remain over the area as highs warm into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Low temperatures will drop into the lower 30s tonight and highs on Sunday will remain in the middle 30s. Narrow line of convection moved through eastern areas along warm front but remained below severe limits in our local area as no reports were received. High pressure will begin to nose into area on Sunday with clearing away from the lake. Expect lake clouds to erode fairly quickly in afternoon given return flow and exit of thermal trough along with mid level dry air already in place.
359 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017 Dry northwesterly flow over the region on the eastern flank of a West Coast ridge brought drying and sunshine to the area this afternoon. Models indicated the ridge will flatten and translate eastward tonight in response to a trough approaching from the eastern Pacific. The flat ridge remains over the region Sunday with nothing but dry air upstream.
Upper level high pressure over Baja California will continue to ridge northward throughout the period.
905 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 The sea breeze circulation that developed this afternoon has already diminished and a synoptic S/SW flow will develop overnight as ridge pulls away from the area. Actually, the best chance for some light fog may be along the Treasure coast closer to the retreating ridge axis. (modified) A fast moving cold front will reach the northernmost CWA around noon-1PM, with what will likely be a narrow and weakening band of showers along and immediately behind it. Maxes will range from near 75F across the north to the lower 80s south of Orlando. W/SW flow Sunday morning ahead of cold front then a northerly wind shift behind the front will likely reach LEE-DAB-SFB 18Z-20Z, then shortly thereafter at MCO/TIX by 21Z and MLB/VRB by 23-24Z.
High pressure will build across the region through Sunday.
A weak ridge of high pressure will move across the area overnight, bringing mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Generally sided towards the warmer end of guidance in a situation like this, more like MAV values.
820 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A strong cold front will push through the region late this evening.
/issued 247 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ (Tonight through tomorrow) (Tonight) The cold front has pushed through the area, and based on latest observations, winds have continued to weaken over much of the area, allowing for the Wind Advisory to expire. An area of high pressure will move south across the panhandle this afternoon and settle across the Big Country during the evening. Clear skies with winds going calm across these ares will allow temperatures to drop into the low 30s.
712 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A cold front will move rapidly across the region tonight with scattered showers and breezy conditions.
526 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 High pressure building across the region behind a cold front will maintain northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots through mid-evening. /issued 339 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ A strong cold front is moving right along unaffected by early heating now as it stretches from Toledo Bend to Monroe. It was windy all day, but notably so along and right behind the cold front with some gusts toward 40 mph from the Northwest. Even overnight will be breezy in the wake of this cold front as strong high pressure arrives in the Four State Area. This high will drift overhead into late tomorrow, but still a typical second colder night coming with radiational cooling for overnight Sunday.
A few south- southwesterly breezes with gusts near 25kt are expected across eastern NM Sunday afternoon as a lee side trough re-develops.
The upper ridge over the Rockies moves east over the plains early Sunday with a weak short wave moving through the upper flow across the high plains by Sunday evening. With near surface flow turning to a more west southwesterly downslope direction and the upper ridge moving east of the Rockies, a dry and warmer short term period is expected.
725 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight.
VFR conditions will prevail behind a cold front that came thru earlier today.
536 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Cold front now out of the state with continued gusty northwest flow in its wake. The cold front is making good progress moving through AR, this afternoon it was located near KELD to near KPBF and to the northeast. A line of convection has developed ahead of the cold front, along a pre-frontal trough. Clouds did break around the cold front, but a large area of stratus ceilings were noted behind it and will move in behind the front, before thinning tonight.
529 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Blustery northwest winds prevailing over the region this afternoon following the passage of this morning's strong cold front. From a sensible weather standpoint, the upcoming week looks nothing less than boring as high pressure dominates the weather pattern across the Central U.
1008 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A cold front will sweep east across the area tonight.
Cold front this evening extends from East Middle TN to the TX/LA border region. A hour or two after midnight, this cold front is expected to reside from the eastern Carolinas through the Florida Panhandle to SW Louisiana. Our local pressure gradient will tighten quickly after midnight as a cold front accelerates southeastward towards our region. The cold front will move quickly across our local waters during the morning hours on Sunday, accompanied by a few showers.
934 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the forecast area late this evening. Quiet weather tonight as Canadian high pressure continues a southeast slide across North Dakota. The high quickly weakens as a surface warm front begins to push into the southwest, where above average lows are expected. The warm front will quickly progress northeastward across the state through Sunday morning with an apparent stall as it approaches the northeast corner. Warmer air will filter into the state behind the front though it will struggle to reach northeast areas. Highs for Sunday will range from the lower 50s in the southwest, to the upper 20s in the northeast corner of the CWA.
930 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 The previously advertised cold front has finally pushed well to the east of this region, unfortunately with some fanfair. The main event came with the cold front and a Quasi-Linear Convective System like line of shower and a few thunderstorms. But with much colder air invading from the NW, High temperatures on Sunday will struggle into the upper 40s, a good 20-25 degrees cooler than today. Only locations near large bodies of water may be spared freezing temperatures, or at least will "only" cool to around 32 degrees.
MVFR cigs and gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 knots will affect airports this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front.
Coldest temperatures of the Fall Season will occur across the lower deserts tonight with some areas experiencing their first freeze of the season.
1018 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A cold front will move rapidly across the region tonight with scattered showers and breezy conditions.
637 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A strong cold front will cross tonight bringing strong winds and a changeover to snow showers by early Sunday morning.
541 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Skies have cleared through the day with strong subsidence behind the upper trough exiting to the southeast. With high pressure spreading across the area tonight and Sunday, quiet weather is expected.
There is a slight chance of patchy freezing fog tonight through Sunday morning, particularly for valleys of northwest Montana.
Temperatures are in the lower 70s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located in the vicinity of Bermuda overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be centered over the Florida Straits tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located near the Bahamas overnight.
524 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a sharp trough carving out across the Great Lakes and Midwest region. The surface cold front has pushed well off to the southeast, allowing a much cooler airmass to filter in on gusty northwest winds. Surface ridging will move into the central part of the country by Sunday afternoon.
/issued 526 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ High pressure building across the region behind a cold front will maintain northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots through mid-evening. /issued 339 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ A strong cold front is moving right along unaffected by early heating now as it stretches from Toledo Bend to Monroe. It was windy all day, but notably so along and right behind the cold front with some gusts toward 40 mph from the Northwest. Even overnight will be breezy in the wake of this cold front as strong high pressure arrives in the Four State Area. This high will drift overhead into late tomorrow, but still a typical second colder night coming with radiational cooling for overnight Sunday.
207 PM PST Sat Nov 18 2017 High pressure will bring a dry weekend. Inversions will limit mixing during the day and also allow for early morning patchy freezing fog in some Sierra valleys.
553 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A cold front will move rapidly across the region tonight with scattered showers and breezy conditions.
/issued 306 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ A cold front has crossed the Mississippi River and continue to move east across the forecast area. As the cold front moves out of west Tennessee, the thunderstorms will be out of the region and the Severe Thunderstorm watch will be cancelled. Behind the cold front, gusty northwest winds will continue to blow for a few hours and the Wind Advisory will remain in effect through this evening. High pressure will be over the southern Plains by Sunday morning giving us a dry and chilly day.
Quiet weather tonight as Canadian high pressure continues a southeast slide across North Dakota. The high quickly weakens as a surface warm front begins to push into the southwest, where above average lows are expected. The warm front will quickly progress northeastward across the state through Sunday morning with an apparent stall as it approaches the northeast corner. Warmer air will filter into the state behind the front though it will struggle to reach northeast areas. Highs for Sunday will range from the lower 50s in the southwest, to the upper 20s in the northeast corner of the CWA.
522 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 The dry northwest flow pattern will persist through tonight and tomorrow as upper ridging continues over the western Conus. A deepening lee trough will begin to stack the pressure gradient across western portions of the CWA on Sunday.
The cold front has cleared all of North Texas although strong north winds persist. A few locations may flirt with freezing, particularly in the northwest where the surface winds will be the lightest. Sunday morning will be the coolest morning of the week in the wake of today's strong cold front.
/issued 159 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ After yesterday's record warmth, temperatures were about 30 degrees cooler this afternoon thanks to an early day cold front.
Cold front now out of the state with continued gusty northwest flow in its wake.
1042 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A strong cold front will push through the region late this evening.
858 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Skies are clearing quickly behind the cold front this evening. /issued 306 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/ A cold front has crossed the Mississippi River and continue to move east across the forecast area. As the cold front moves out of west Tennessee, the thunderstorms will be out of the region and the Severe Thunderstorm watch will be cancelled. Behind the cold front, gusty northwest winds will continue to blow for a few hours and the Wind Advisory will remain in effect through this evening. High pressure will be over the southern Plains by Sunday morning giving us a dry and chilly day.
705 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight.
/Issued 234 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017/ Strong frontal system progged to push quickly across the area, driven by amplifying upper trough currently across the east central plains and western TN Valley. Enhanced gradient winds will likely be of more impact with the system as the low deepens to the north with strong CAA on the heels of the fropa. While skies will be mostly clear due to quick ridging/subsidence in the wake of the front, highs Sunday should only make it into the low to mid 50s for most areas given the aforementioned strong CAA.
The cold front is making good progress moving through AR, this afternoon it was located near KELD to near KPBF and to the northeast. A line of convection has developed ahead of the cold front, along a pre-frontal trough. Clouds did break around the cold front, but a large area of stratus ceilings were noted behind it and will move in behind the front, before thinning tonight.
1021 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 Updated zones, as the convective band is nearing an exit, and cooler and drier conditions coming in from the west.
Additional convection is located to the SW and will continue to spread NE across our region through the overnight hours with a heavier concentration of showers toward daybreak and can't rule out some isolated thunder as well but more likely on Saturday as a cold front shifts into the region. The cold front will move across the forecast area during the day Saturday. Surface winds will be Southeast to South 5-10 knots overnight and more variable near late morning to mid day with approach and passage of the cold front.
No significant precipitation is expected, however, locations north of I-80 may see a brief period of light freezing rain with current temperatures near freezing and initial wet-bulbing at onset pulling surface temperatures lower. Analysis indicates a general 1 to 2 inches of water equivalent on the ground from Pittsburgh northward, with 2 to 3 inches in the ridges.
1012 PM MST Fri Feb 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary well south and west of the area, with low pressure along the boundary over far northeast CO. Arctic high pressure is centered over northeast MT. Upper level analysis continues to show low pressure over Hudson Bay, with broad trough covering much of Canada and the northern US. Skies will gradually clear from northeast to southwest later tonight into Saturday morning as high pressure to the north slowly slides southeast across the Northern Plains. The weekend will be dry as high pressure moves over and east of the region.
315 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Today will feature chances for snow and patchy freezing drizzle as a frontal boundary remains draped across the region.
331 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Not much change with respect to the large scale pattern with a broad upper trof still in control over the CONUS along with an amplified ridge situated off the west coast. At the sfc, very strong high pressure/accompanying arctic airmass has dropped into the northern Plains.
No significant precipitation is expected, however, isolated locations north of I-80 may see a brief period of light freezing rain where current temperatures are near freezing and initial wet-bulbing at onset will pull surface temperatures lower.
Stationary front extends from Low pressure in the Southern Plains thru the Ohio Valley northeastward to New York early this morning. strong high pressure continues to build into the Northern Plains. temps will rebound into the teens across Eastern Upper Michigan and the Straits area and into the low to mid 20s across the rest of Northern Lower Michigan.
Low temperatures from the lower 60s far north to the middle 60s elsewhere by sunrise. Low level flow between a frontal system over the MS/TN valley and a ridge of high pressure off eastern seaboard will slowly veer from easterly early in the morning to southeasterly through the day. to the lower/mid 80s elsewhere. the beaches should expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler during the mid/late afternoon.
The tail end of a cold front that dropped south out of Canada is currently moving into the forecast area. The front will weaken and fall apart on Saturday with clearing skies but it will leave cooler temperatures over the region through the weekend.
Dense fog and low clouds north of a warm front are affecting coastal ne Fl and areas north of the I-10 corridor across s Ga. Temperatures will be much cooler near the coast with highs only around 70 degrees.
1144 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 925 mb wind max area and max warmer temp area sliding southward along the western side of the Red River valley and temps in this area from the Red River to about 40 miles west are holding around zero or into single digits. As clear and cold arctic high pressure remains anchored across the northern plains impacts again will revolve around temperatures and wind chills for the evening and overnight. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than previous morning as westerly winds keep mixing higher than previous mornings. Saturday max temps look to be a bit warmer than the past few days with better mixing with the west to southwest surface winds.
Models show a cold front sinking across the PAH forecast area tonight colliding with moisture moving northward. There may be a brief period of freezing rain possible in our far northwest counties, but chances and amounts should be minimal, and temperatures in these areas should climb above freezing by late morning.
220 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Moisture will increase today ahead of an approaching warm front.
Ahead of the a warm front lifting northward, cloud cover increased through the evening. By Saturday morning, guidance moves the warm front north of the area into central/northern Tennessee. The best isentropic lift shifts north with the warm front as well. The low level jet strengthens as a result to around 50 knots, especially as this low moves northeast into Mississippi and Arkansas during the day.
335 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 The upper pattern has a broad trough across the center of the country.
335 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 TODAY AND TONIGHT: Upper level ridge remains centered across the NW and Central Bahamas this morning with the low level ridge axis stretching across the Florida peninsula. Highs today will continue around 5 degrees above normal in the low-mid 80s, approaching a record high at Naples.
801 PM PST Fri Feb 9 2018 Cooler weather and more coastal clouds are on the way this weekend as high pressure weakens.
With temperatures well below freezing across most of the area, am expecting some light freezing rain this morning.
The cold front will move across the forecast area during the day Saturday. Surface winds will be Southeast to South 5-10 knots overnight and more variable near late morning to mid day with approach and passage of the cold front. Additional convection is located to the SW and will continue to spread NE across our region through the overnight hours with a heavier concentration of showers toward daybreak and can't rule out some isolated thunder as well but more likely on Saturday as a cold front shifts into the region.
356 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 The cold front which moved through the Panhandles yesterday morning was located across New Mexico up against the front range of the Sangre de Cristo and Manzano mountain ranges. Northern stream trough forecast to push southward out of the northern and central Rockies and the northern and central Plains states today and will approach the Panhandles later today and tonight.
337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 The cold front has cleared the forecast area as of 3 am, and the polar air will keep spilling south through the day. Otherwise, it appears that most of the low cloudiness will stay outside the CWA during the day. We do expect the low clouds to fill in tonight and this may help keep temperatures from cratering, but it will still be very cold with lows mainly in the teens.
404 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Moisture will increase today ahead of an approaching warm front.
A few surprise lows of -10F or colder could develop given arctic high pressure, clear skies and very dry air still in place.