Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are already falling close to freezing or at freezing over southern middle TN. Southeast to south flow will develop on Tuesday as the surface and 850 mb ridge pull to the east. Lows in some of our notorious cold pockets may dip into the 30s, but most other areas should stay in the lower to middle 40s. The cdfnt will be out of the TN valley on Thanksgiving as highs climb into the low to mid 60s with decreasing clouds and no pcpn.
105 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure today. A weak cold front mid week.
Southeast winds will become breezy Tuesday morning through afternoon as a plains low pressure system interacts with Gulf high pressure. Southerly winds will increase again tomorrow morning and afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure developing in the Central Plains. /issued 302 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night):Low to mid level moisture will return across portions of the state of Texas tonight into Tuesday as a 500mb trough across the southwest United States this afternoon moves eastward across the Rockies tonight into Tuesday. Rain chances will be low until late Tues night into early Wednesday morning as a cold front approaches the area from the north.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 435 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather to the area through this evening. However, the high will depart to the east tonight, allowing an area of low pressure to track toward the southern Great Lakes for the middle of the week. A trailing cold front will approach Wednesday afternoon, eventually crossing the region by late Wednesday night.
An upper level trough over the Central and Southern Rockies is about to move out into the High Plains. Upward forcing will increase ahead of the upper level trough today with streamer showers possible this morning and thunderstorms this afternoon as instability develops. Upper level trough will move to the east across the Plains in the short term dragging a cold front through South Central Texas.
High pressure will yield quiet conditions through Wednesday. This will put most locations into the teens with 20s on the ridges. Tuesday night temperatures will feature another large ridge/valley split as gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow valleys to fall well into the 20s or upper teens, with ridges staying around 30.
328 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure remains dominate today with abundant sunshine and a continued dry airmass. A cold front will move across the lower-mid MS valley late Wednesday along with an upper level trough.
1135 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Tonight through Tuesday night: An upper trough over the southwestern states will advance eastward tonight, moving across the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Lows will be much warmer than normal. Light rain shower (isolated thunder) chances will be mainly east of I-135 Tuesday, ahead of the cold front as modified Gulf moisture increases. Also expecting rain chances along/north of I-70 in the wrap-around area of the low pressure. Gusty winds will persist Tuesday into Tuesday night with the low pressure moving through.
247 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure today. A weak cold front mid week.
341 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be freezing rain/rain/snow over the James River Valley. with the current Freezing Rain Advisory in effect until 9 am CST this morning. an upper level longwave trough was over the front range/western plains this morning. At the surface, a low pressure trough extended from a low in southeastern Saskatchewan.
Upper trof continues to move slowly across the Central Plains. As the upper trof passes a weak dry cold front will drop south into the CWA tonight and Wed. Yet another upper trof will pass by to the north in the progressive flow. but stronger cold front south into the CWA.
352 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Drier air in the low levels continues to keep precipitation from reaching the ground early this morning across eastern Iowa and western Illinois. If any does occur across the northwest counties, road surface temps indicate light freezing rain or drizzle will not be an issue through the early morning. Timing these specific periods is difficult this far out and will leave the higher level of detail to later shifts. WAA aloft and above freezing surface temps should keep precipitation in the form of rain tonight.
1159 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 For the 22/06Z TAFs, Abundant cirrus continues to stream into the region late this evening ahead of the upper level trough shifting out over the plains. As the trough draws closer late in the period, some showers may creep into the picture ahead of a developing line of convection which should be intensifying as it approaches the region late Tuesday evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Southerly winds will become gusty on Tuesday ahead of the trough and associated cold front as the pressure gradient continues to tighten ahead of these features. Still waiting on the low level moisture return across our western zones but this should occur quickly after midnight given the pressure gradient in place.
330 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Wx map shows high pressure over the Eastern U. with low pressure over the TX/OK Panhandles, with the pressure gradient increasing across the Western Gulf into SE TX/LA this morning. Quite the gradient of temperatures ranging from near 40 across Central Louisiana with calm winds, to the lower 60s across SE Texas. Temperatures not expected to fall much this evening and overnight as the SE to S flow continues ahead of the approaching cold front.
1030 mb high pressure over western Ontario and ridging southward across central WI and eastern IL was providing ample sunshine again today to central and southeast IL. High pressure overhead was also providing fairly light winds and seasonably cool temperatures in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will drift east to near the IN/OH border by early Tue morning and continue fair weather over our CWA. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s in eastern IL to the lower 30s from Jacksonville sw. A vigorous, negatively tilted, upper-level trof, currently pushing into the Four Corners, is the next significant weather feature to impact forecast area. This trof will cross the Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.
An area of low pressure over the central high plains, deepening tonight with the approach of the upper trough, will lead to a strengthening southerly low level jet over the region tonight to 35-40 knots. As the low level jet provides an influx of higher moisture, stratus layer should form over the Coastal Bend and eastern Brush Country by 07-08Z with MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet expected. With the low level jet in place, mentioned low level wind shear during the overnight hours for all TAFs. Mesonet sites around Victoria show readings in the lower 60s.
High pressure will build into the region through Wednesday.
Weakened trough heights hold over the Four Corners region in the wake of yesterday's strong FROPA and main trough passage that generated showers, some isolated thunderstorms and small hail and cooler temperatures across the CWA. Overnight IR imagery indicates the higher/colder clouds are mostly clear of the area, however some lower level and mountain stratus has developed across portions of Arizona. Skies were mostly clear out across the western CWA in southeast CA and southwest AZ with some 4-5kft cloud ceiling circulating around the desert areas between Phoenix and Tucson and through some of the higher terrain valleys of southern Gila county.
The main upper trough is progressing quickly northeastward and looks as if the main upper lifting regime should stay well to the north of the CWA by tomorrow evening. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will move in from the west. This will lead to an increasing chance of rain, especially during the evening and overnight hours as a cold front moves into the region. We can't rule out a few strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday evening and overnight for areas generally along and east of the Highway 281 corridor.
The dry and benign weather will continue through the next couple of days across South Florida with broad high pressure well in control of the region. Broad high pressure remains in control of the region with a dry and cool air mass still keeping the current benign weather conditons through at least Wednesday night.
1156 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Pleasant conditions are expected this afternoon through the Overnight hours as mid level ridging persists ahead of a strong system across Arizona. This will occur as the storm system and low pressure develops and moves into the area. The actual cold front will not push through until late Tuesday night therefore lingering showers will occur Tuesday evening. Mid level ridging develops Wednesday and Thanksgiving day with fantastic conditions.
Temperatures remain in the low/mid 30s and not much cooling anticipated. With cooler road surfaces will likely see travel impacts so will keep advisory intact. Temperatures should recover a couple of degrees above freezing which will help roadways which had fzra. Not a great deal of change with thermal profiles so highs again likely in the low/mid 30s as not anticipating any additional areas of significant snow cover. Upper ridging will then build into the area to end the work week and for the majority of the weekend. With a decent 850 mb thermal ridge also building in, temperatures should warm to above average. especially across the west, possibly reaching into the low 40s. Cigs were lowering over the southwest zones with rain/freezing rain moving into the area.
Lows will fall into the lower 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. In the upper levels a ridge will remain over the Southeast until Wednesday evening when a trough moves through.
236 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Windy conditions will persist through much of today as a large upper low over New England lifts very slowly northeast toward the Canadian maritimes.
Upper ridge will build over the area tonight. as the next splitting trough approaches the region. Lee troughing will produce gusty winds over the gap areas, otherwise winds will be light. Splitting trough will move into the area Wed.
1159 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 An area of low pressure will slowly move eastward across northern Maine tonight and into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Light snow will become more focused across the higher elevations of the Northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains tonight, with the snow tapering off Tuesday. High pressure briefly brings drier conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday.
100 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build overhead today and tonight, then shift east late Wednesday.
the large area of high pressure high pressure covering the eastern U. A little warmer along the coast and around 50 (perhaps a few U40s in normally colder spots) at the rural inland mesonet sites. High pressure crosses the mid Atlantic coast early Wednesday then drifts eastward over the Atlantic into Thanksgiving. Moisture levels will creep a little upward as well, noted in dew points climbing back into the lower 60s and partly cloudy skies.
While the low-level southeasterly winds will keep the lower levels of the atmosphere dry on Tuesday, higher level cloudiness, associated with the developing Plains low, will overspread the area tonight into Tuesday, resulting in mostly cloudy conditions on Tuesday. KJB 235 PM CST Showers are expected to overspread the area Tuesday evening in the strengthening WAA regime in advance of progressive trough moving across the region. Trough will move east of the area Wednesday evening bringing an end to the precip. No real push of cooler air in the wake of this Pacific system, so just a dry day with seasonable temps Thanksgiving.
High pressure builds across the eastern seaboard producing an onshore flow to the area. with near freezing temps and patchy frost across inland areas. in combination with a developing trough and increasing moisture. Temps much warmer tonight especially coastal areas. In general a progressive upper level zonal flow will continue through the period with a series of short wave troughs and ridges moving across the southern states and the forecast area. An upper level ridge will be moving across the region with a 1028-30 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic States. The return flow around the ridge will be coming in from off the ocean with a weak coastal/inverted trough setting up along the coast.
A backdoor cold front will drop down the eastern plains Tuesday evening and result in a wind shift at KTCC and KLVS. FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW An upper level trough and Pacific cold front will cross from the west tonight with rain and snow showers expected across much of northern and central New Mexico.
Increased pops over the higher terrain of eastern Nevada after midnight.
Mountain valleys, Baker Valley and the lower Snake River Plain (Boise westward) will see locally dense fog by sunrise Tuesday. Cold frontal passage expected early Wednesday for snow above 4500 feet and rain in the lower valleys. Isolated showers associated with an upper trough will end by early this evening as the trough slides east. An upper ridge will replace the trough overnight allowing for mostly clear skies and the return to patchy valley fog. Next Pacific trough will bring showers to SE Oregon Tuesday night and SW Idaho on Wednesday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday and will be followed by W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs close to normal.
Dewpoints are extremely low and will cause rh values to be some of the lowest we have seen through tomorrow afternoon. 16 An upper trough axis will move quickly eastward from the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind this system, dry conditions and high pressure will return for the rest of the week with a zonal flow pattern. An upper trough and associated surface cold front develop west of the area and slowly move eastward into Wednesday and Wednesday night.
935 PM PST Mon Nov 21 2016 Weak high pressure building over the Southwest will bring warming through the end of the week.
Overall, recent model trends have favored slightly cooler boundary layer temps farther south towards the I-90 corridor. The cooler solution brings the potential for more of a mix/snow south along I-90. May have to continue to trend towards more snow/sleet in future updates if later model runs continue to indicate a cooler solution.
High pressure will follow for Tuesday, with another fast moving storm system expected Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. An upper trough continues to cross the eastern Great Basin this evening. The 700mb trough axis has already moved into far eastern Utah, and as a result the forecast area is now under a northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation will start to gradually taper off after midnight as high pressure builds in from the west.
Some high clouds will skirt northern areas through the overnight as upper ridge continues to build in this direction. Good flying weather next 24 hours as surface and upper ridge dominate the pattern.
Ridging will provide increased subsidence today keeping dry conditions in place however low level moisture trapped under the inversion along with continued low-level northwesterly flow should maintain cloud coverage, especially north and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud coverage will diminish tonight as ridging continues to build over the region and warmer air moves in aloft. This along with lighter surface winds will allow for a strong radiational cooling night with temperatures falling to the low 20s / upper teens. Temperatures will climb back up to seasonal levels and rain chances will increase over the course of the afternoon ahead of the warm front. Temperatures will drop little wednesday night with showers and substantial cloud coverage as the warm front crosses the region.
329 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Forecast starts off quiet with high pressure centered over lower MI.
141 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 A large area of low pressure will cross the area overnight then continue east through the Maritimes Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday night. Latest satl imagery showed upper low right over the region pulling slowly east. At the same time a deep upper level low pressure system will track across northern Maine. There is plenty of cold air aloft but temperatures near the surface are warmer. The intense low pressure system will move away to the northeast later Tuesday but snow showers are expected to continue through the day. Upper low wl be spinning acrs the Gulf of St. High pressure will build in Wed aftn fm the west ending snow showers in the mrng.
As trough/Pac front blows through Tuesday the wind will swing around to the west and become gusty during the afternoon.
The best chance of rain is early afternoon Tuesday through Wednesday morning, which is out ahead of the low and associated cold front. The cold front finally moves through the area early Wednesday morning.
dipping into the lower to mid 20s in most locations this afternoon.
/issued 341 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level trough over the Great Basin will move east across the southern Rockies and into the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday. Given the extent of cloud cover and an increase in low level moisture overnight, temperatures will be considerably warmer, with lows in the mid and upper 50s. Could see a few showers or a thunderstorm develop over far southeast counties ahead of the trough axis but due to limited moisture and upper level support, will limit POPs to 20 percent.
116 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 Spitting trough will continue to shift se of the fa today. Mild conds can be expected over the sw half wed, with much cooler conds to the ne where a frontal boundary will persist. Another mid level trough will push toward the region wed night, with light snow possible late wed night ne WY, more so into thur.
322 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Early morning surface analysis depicts a southeast CO cyclone. Synoptic models along with recent runs of HRRRX suggests that main convection will likely hold off until late afternoon (if not after 00Z) as the cold front and sharp upper trof punch into the area. Cooler weather is expected by Wednesday in the wake of the frontal passage.
204 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
114 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
Coverage is fairly spotty but certainly can't rule out a shower or ts with gusty winds moving over a terminal site between 06z and 10z as upper low crosses area. This low will move east with a cold front in it's wake. Some cloud cover is also expected behind the front with the lowest cigs expected at KGUY during the afternoon and evening. Raised wind speeds into the breezy to windy category behind this cold front given the fairly tight pressure gradient in its wake.
An upper level trough will move across the Plains states today. Another warm day is expected ahead of the next cold front with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temps will range from the low/mid 80s across the west to upper 70s across northeast sections. Trough continues to shift eastward tonight with cold front moving southward across the state.
expect somewhat warmer overnight temps and overall little impactful weather through Monday morning. Pattern will become more active through the rest of the period as large trough begins to dig into the northern Rockies. forcing a cold front across the area Monday afternoon.
1003 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 Upper low continues to spin over the Gulf of California, with split trough moving through the central CONUS. Breezy westerly winds will continue tonight behind the trough. Mild weather will continue Sunday as a weak upper trough passes over the northern plains. Surface winds will become southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough, and temperatures will warm into the mid 30s and 40s. The next upper trough will begin moving into the region Sunday night, bringing chances for snow after midnight across northwestern SD, northeastern WY, and the Black Hills. An Arctic cold front will plunge into the forecast area on Monday as an upper trough drops southward out of western Canada.
It will also last warm day for a while as a cold front this afternoon and evening will bring bitter cold air into the region for most of the week. The upper trough moves into Western Montana this afternoon and across Montana tonight and Monday. Any precipitation that does occur will start out as a mix of rain and snow this afternoon and change to all snow this evening as strong cold air advection moves in behind the cold front. Slight chances for snow will linger as upper trough moves through the area. Arctic high pressure will build into the area from Canada.
/issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/ Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues ahead of a cutoff upper level low. Considered adding freezing rain, but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will cancel the High Wind Warning.
Looking aloft, a trough axis extends from Central Canada clear down to the Baja. The upper trough is expected to split in two, as energy slides by to our north tonight, and the upper low down over the Baja at the base of the larger scale trough gets cut off from the flow. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with low pressure troughing over the Northern High Plains. Light rain that spread over the region today into this evening was in association with the warm conveyor ahead of the broad upper trough.
1216 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 Dry conditions will persist through this evening with surface ridging across the region.
With the surface wetbulb temps running above freezing over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, confidence is fairly high that precip type will remain all rain. Freezing levels will drop a little tonight, but with the warming in the lower layers, expect any initial mix of rain/snow on the northern edge to become rain. Surface temperatures around daybreak will hover near freezing in our Bluegrass and southern Indiana counties, but any precip should be light enough not to cause any driving hazards, especially with relatively warm road temperatures. That precip will kick east of here Sunday night, with high pressure building in behind it.
214 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and tonight.
Weak upper ridge slowly weakens tonight. Cold front passage looks to be mainly overnight Sunday night, roughly 09Z through Pocatello. Temperatures behind front quite cold with highs Monday all areas below freezing.
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 Rain will gradually develop and increase from the south into this evening as the lower atmospheric column moistens in advance of an approaching mid level trough and isentropic upglide develops. A few snow flakes mixed with the rain cannot be ruled out overnight across the eastern Ozarks given the lower wet bulb temperatures. However no accumulation or impacts are expected as temperatures remain above freezing. The rain will come to and end from the west Sunday as the mid level trough makes its way across the region and a weak front pushes across the area.
Winds will veer from the ESE to the W throughout the taf period as a cold front approaches.
1203 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 At 2 PM, water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short wave trough over eastern South Dakota and another short wave trough moving into the Nebraska pan handle. The first short wave trough will move northeast through Minnesota tonight.
403 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday. High pressure will build back in for Monday.