Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level low continues to trudge along across the Permian Basin late this morning. /issued 321 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021/ As of 3AM we're seeing all snow across the region, as the potent upper level low tracks from southeast New Mexico right now into central Texas by late this afternoon. The closed low is currently moving slightly slower than earlier guidance suggested, which helped to slow down surface cooling. Once the system sweeps east by early evening temperatures will drop off considerably, with lows eventually reaching the lower to mid teens on the Caprock and low to mid 20s east of the escarpment. Weak upper trough overhead Monday combined with snow cover south will help keep temperatures well below normal with the coldest forecast highs across the southern row of counties where snow cover will be most persistent.
1157 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
A trough will slide through tonight accompanied by an area of MVFR stratus which will spread across all sites this evening into Monday morning before drier air aloft, deeper boundary layer mixing, and southwest winds at or above 8 knots lift CIGS back to low VFR. Deep layer stability held firm under low and mid level ridging ensures benign conditions exist again today. A period of cold air advection will accompany an elongated trough axis across the area tonight. Moisture depth lacks to support precipitation development, but this process will effectively draw the higher low level moisture back into the region.
The low, thin clouds have disappeared. Lows will be a little cooler on the whole in the SE half of the area than Sun AM thanks to the light/calm wind overnight.
The center of the upper low was currently over the Big Country causing the heavy snow for the Rolling Plains. Furthermore, freezing fog is again expected to develop, mostly for areas on the caprock.
/Issued 544 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021/ For the 12Z TAFs, light snow will gradually come to an end at the terminal sites from north to south this morning as the upper level low pressure storm system moves further east across west Texas. As the low drives east, the moisture ahead of the system is being advected north northeast with southwest winds aloft. Highs today will warm only into the low to mid 30s with some snow cover and cloudy conditions limiting heating.
Low temperatures are tricky where it may be cooler than forecast where breaks develop and warmer where there is overcast skies. There have been breaks to no clouds in the western FL panhandle where temperatures quickly dropped to the low 30s. Should see some sun today as the low level clouds erode but high level clouds will increase ahead of the next system. Lows will be above freezing tonight with readings in the mid 30s to low 40s.
A lack of deep moisture may end up producing a mixture of flurries/freezing drizzle, but have included some small POPs with a wintry mix tonight.
A late week cold front will bring a return of precipitation chances. Low clouds continue to mix out across the region, with most areas expected to enjoy a mostly sunny afternoon under weak high pressure. Moisture paucity in the lower levels will prevent any precipitation from this feature, however. Surface-based ridging of varying strength will continue to keep dry weather in the area into the midweek period. All models are now on board in keeping precipitation associated with southern stream low pressure fully south of the CWA on Monday night.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 43 34 49 28 / 10 50 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 41 34 46 27 / 10 40 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 28 41 31 46 25 / 10 40 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 41 32 44 25 / 0 40 40 20 0.
Temperatures have been warming through the 30s for the most part, today, with a few locations west-river nosing up into the low 40s. But, the more significant temperature influence overnight will be the low cloud deck, and more specifically, how quickly it will advect east out of the CWA. The forecast is dry from tonight through Monday night while a large broad upper level ridge resides just upstream of this region, in effect, deflecting any noteworthy weather systems away from this area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): A cold front is currently making its way though the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Monday will remain dry with clouds continuing to linger, especially in the Lower Valley. Chilly temperatures are expected Monday only topping out in the low 50s across the area with Monday night lows falling into the low 40s south to low 30s north.
An upper level long wave trough extended from the Great Lakes region into southwest Texas today. Farther to the north, the central High Plains will come under the influence of a developing east-west upper ridge. This will lead to dry weather with a return to warmer temperatures through Monday.
In fact, areas across the southeast TX Panhandle are already above freezing as of writing this so accumulation will be difficult. This could set the stage for some fog/low clouds to develop given the light winds tonight, and since temperature will be below freezing this could lead to patchy/areas of freezing fog across the southwest/southern TX Panhandle through the morning hours.
105 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure exits tonight. High pressure exits this evening. A moisture starved upper level short wave trough approaches tonight, and then crosses Monday morning, bring nothing more than mid and high cloud. However, low level moisture under a stout inversion, manifest as widespread stratus and low stratocu early this afternoon across virtually the entire midwest, will arrive behind the cold front just as the mid cloud exits. This may skirt far southern portions of the area with light rain and snow, with a coating possible across the higher ridges down in southwest VA.
359 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 The latest notable upper level features include modest ridging aligned from northern New England down through the Middle Atlantic. A positively tilted trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes down through the Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure is centered off the Texas coast, with high pressure located across the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley region.
1111 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 With the pesky trough finally moving out, ridging begins to take hold of the state for the short term forecast, keeping weather conditions tranquil. The only areas expected to get above freezing south be the Big Horn basin and across Johnson County. Areas of fog will again develop in the lower basins overnight, but are not expected to be dense.
The low level thermal trough is reinforced over Lower Michigan by the northern Ontario 500 mb short wave during Monday. This combined with widespread clouds produces temperatures a few degrees cooler than recent days but still slightly above normal.
High pressure will remain in place for most of the week. The combination of a building ridge.
The back edge of the precipitation shield is currently located from near Llano into western Bexar County and will continue to move east through the rest of the afternoon as a dry slot works in on the south side of the upper low currently moving through North Texas. Winds this evening once precipitation ends will be in the 10-15 mph range which should hopefully slowly dry some of the roadways before temperatures get below freezing overnight. However, everyone should take caution on area roadways for possible ice through the mid-morning hours tomorrow when temperatures warm back above freezing.
Therefore, expect a hard freeze tonight for road ways and bridges becoming slippery and icy.
1012 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 The upper trough has moved off the the southeast, with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area. At the surface, the high pressure area that was located over the eastern Dakotas continues to slide southward, being located over eastern Nebraska early this morning. Southwesterly winds have already developed over the forecast area and will push drier air into the region today, eroding the low stratus from west to east and producing mostly sunny skies this afternoon.
1128 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 (Today and tonight) The WV satellite imagery is indicating a strong upper level low across southern New Mexico. The combination of strong lift as the upper level low moves across west and north Texas and the entire atmospheric column falling below freezing will produce several hours of moderate to heavy snow mainly northeast of a Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba County line. Further south, along the I-10 corridor, due to warmer surface temperatures, mainly a mix of rain/snow with local accumulation of 1 inch possible.
On Monday, an upper-level closed low over the Southern Plains will progress east-northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic as it becomes elongated and absorbed into the northern stream upper-level trough. Most of the forecast area is expected to start Monday blanketed by stratus until stratus-bearing layer flow begins to turn to the west- southwest and strengthens with passage of a low-level ridge axis to the east through the day. High temps Monday will generally be near average--in the low to upper-30Fs. Pfahler Another upper-level closed low is expected to form immediately following the first closed low and track along the southern tier of the U.
Morning upper air analysis indicated a mid level trof over the upper Mississippi Valley. Water vapor loops were showing a compact vort lobe at the base of this trof spinning into west central IL at 15z. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with readings in the upper 20s and lower 30s, while lows tonight dip into the lower to middle 20s.
200 PM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 Dry conditions will remain in place this week as strong high pressure builds into the region. The resulting upstream ridging will force further Great Basin surface pressure rises acting to reinforce "cooler" temperatures and briefly create some locally gusty northeast winds. From an impacts standpoint, many non-urban, wind-sheltered communities will flirt with freezing mark the next several mornings, which is perfectly normal for mid January. During the latter half of the week, a high amplitude ridge strengthens over the West Coast of North America while pronounced negative height anomalies become situated over the eastern Conus. For the local CWA, H5 heights will range from 580-585dm on the downstream side of the ridge axis.
259 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 An upper level low pressure system currently over Texas will move northeastward tonight and will be over the Mid-South by Monday morning. Some of the low clouds have eroded near the Tennessee River and the MS/AL border this afternoon. However, clouds associated with the upper level low are quickly spreading back into the area. Snow associated with the upper level low will begin to spread into portions of North Mississippi and East Central Arkansas around midnight. Models are in pretty good agreement now that the upper low will weaken over the Mid-South, opening up as an upper trof on Monday.
218 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
108 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
Elsewhere under the overcast stratus, have lowered temps a couple degrees and expect that temps will struggle to get out of the low to mid 30s.
100 PM PST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure over the region will continue to produce fog and low clouds in the San Joaquin Valley, with mainly clear skies elsewhere, through the week.
1017 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 The 12z KTAE sounding had quite an inversion this morning with temperatures warmer at 800 mb (~6500 ft) than at the surface (42F vs 38F). Low temperatures are tricky where it may be cooler than forecast where breaks develop and warmer where there is overcast skies. There have been breaks to no clouds in the western FL panhandle where temperatures quickly dropped to the low 30s. Should see some sun today as the low level clouds erode but high level clouds will increase ahead of the next system. Lows will be above freezing tonight with readings in the mid 30s to low 40s.
119 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure exits tonight. High pressure exits this evening. A moisture starved upper level short wave trough approaches tonight, and then crosses Monday morning, bring nothing more than mid and high cloud. However, low level moisture under a stout inversion, manifest as widespread stratus and low stratocu early this afternoon across virtually the entire midwest, will arrive behind the cold front just as the mid cloud exits. This may skirt far southern portions of the area with light rain and snow, with a coating possible across the higher ridges down in southwest VA.
Clear skies will bring cooler overnight temps than we've seen over the past few days. Lows in the low 20s are expected with light winds.
Meanwhile, temperatures are holding in the lower 30s across the Ozarks this afternoon. Areas that see more breaks in the clouds overnight could see colder temperatures in the lower 20s as a result of radiational cooling.
Lows tonight should drop back into mainly in the lower and mid 20s.
Forecast profiles and broad expanse of low cloud cover suggest stratus layer should persist throughout the night, aided by the passing of a dry upper level trough through the region.
1245 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure over the region will keep conditions dry into Monday morning. Moisture to return Monday afternoon as another weak low pressure system moves up from the Gulf Coast, with rain likely Monday night.
Mid to high level clouds pushing through on satellite imagery associated with a weakening short wave trough. Some light snow showers are likely for our central Idaho mountains today as this trough passes through, but little to no accumulations are expected.
This is good news as temperatures with the clouds have been nearly steady near or just above freezing since they moved in. The upper level low entering Texas is still forecast to eject east-northeast and into the lower MS Valley late tonight and early Monday. Temperatures will dip back to 30-32F range for most of northwest and north central AL into southern TN, but could stay just above freezing in northeast AL. As the wave shifts east, the highest PoP will be from late morning into early afternoon, especially for our south and east portions of the forecast area (generally southeast of FYM-DCU-9A4), and with warm advection in low levels allowing for a mix or a change to rain before ending during the afternoon.
356 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build across the region through midweek offering dry weather with near normal temperatures early warming to above normal by midweek. The next chance for precipitation will occur late in the week as a cold front crosses the region. Broad mid level ridge to build off to the east coast with weak sheared out trof dropping southeast from the Upper MS VLY across the Great Lakes/ Ohio Valley tonight. With the passage of trof surface winds shift from southwest to west with some drier air advecting into the region. Temperatures look to be close to normal with highs Monday from the lower 30s northwest to near 40 southeast. Expect lows in the lower and middle 20s.
1118 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 A cool air mass continues to reside over the Keys this morning, with N-NE winds reinforcing the cooler air for now. Chilled waters and cooler, denser air over Bayside and Gulfside waters will delay the veering of the wind there. Nonetheless, the low-level moisture will start to deepen, and PW values will rise quickly to exceed 1" around sunrise Monday.
Warm air advection will continue through mid week as the trough settles across the eastern US and keeps the area in a southwest flow regime.
High pressure that has been the dominating force of our weather this weekend will start to push into the Atlantic overnight.
244 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
1016 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will move over the region with dry conditions into Monday morning. Moisture to return Monday afternoon as another weak low pressure system moves up from the Gulf Coast, with rain likely Monday night.
High pressure over the eastern US will drift into the western Atlantic through tonight. Morning low temperatures in the low to mid 40s north of I-4 and up to the mid 50s along the immediate Treasure Coast. Nonetheless, it will be warmer than this morning, with no products needed to be issued. Warming trend continues, as afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s.
Mid afternoon readings were mainly in the lower to mid 20s with northwest winds about 5 to 10 mph. This will hopefully bring partial clearing into the southwest half of the area to push highs into the lower 30s, while clearing may be slower to occur across the northeast half, where highs are kept in the upper 20s.
1044 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 Overview: An upper level low presently situated invof the NM/TX border will progress east across TX (Today-Tonight) and the Deep South (Mon-Mon night). An upper level ridge along the central/southern Pacific coast will extend eastward through the Intermountain West into the Central Plains Mon-Mon night.
-KT Snow will continue to diminish through the morning as the upper low continues to shift off to the southeast. Remainder of the area will be cold as well, though some light downslope will keep a ribbon of warmer temperatures (around 20 degrees) along the lower eastern slopes.
Some lower clouds are possible later tonight in the NW, but it'll be mostly the high clouds lowering to mid clouds. Lows will be a little cooler on the whole in the SE half of the area than Sun AM thanks to the light/calm wind overnight. Temps will fall and then perhaps rise a couple of degs over the NW if the lower clouds materialize. Have left out mentions of any precip, as the low levels remain largely dry.
Daytime heating has been severely limited, and with clouds keeping the nights warmer, there has been very little diurnal temperature variation the last 24 hours. The lower-level clouds have primarily been arriving with the light northwesterly flow lower in the atmosphere. The forecast reflects this with lows in the mid to upper 20s which is cooler than last night but still on the warmer end of the model range. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow as northwesterly flow starts to shift towards westerly along with, later in the day, reduced cloud cover.
The time frame from around sunrise to noon will be the best time to see snow accumulate thanks to below freezing surface temperatures. With enough moisture, we could see our temps stay on the cooler side. The upper closed low weakens and gets swept into the upper flow as it enters the Tennessee Valley tomorrow afternoon, so we're also losing the upper level support that has helped portions of Texas realize some decent snow potential today.
Lows will be a little cooler on the whole in the SE half of the area than Sun AM thanks to the light/calm wind overnight.
Upper ridge is building into the region and will allow another period of above normal temps the next few days, before the next cold front arrives. Rockies ridging will support increasingly mild temps through Wed, with continued dry conds as Pac downslope flow spreads over the region. Highs in the 50s are on track for Mon-Wed on much of the SD plains, a bit cooler west as mild Pac air remains over the region. However, the bulk of CAA will shift quickly east of the region, with cooler temps only expected to last a day or two before WAA spreads back east with the rebuilding western CONUS ridge. Further out, there is continued trends for a much cooler end of the month as negative temp anomalies are progged for all of the western CONUS, with eastern CONUS ridging.
Temps have stayed confined to the low to mid 30s as a result of the clouds, although a few eastern or southern spots could still reach the upper 30s briefly this afternoon.
358 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 A cool, dry air mass and northerly winds are in palce over the Keys, with temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 60s.
1251 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build over the region, influencing our weather through Monday.
Fog and freezing fog will be possible again tonight with greatest chances at KLBB and KPVW. The fog and freezing fog will bring CIGS back down to IFR at KLBB and KPVW. The center of the upper low was currently over the Big Country causing the heavy snow for the Rolling Plains. Furthermore, freezing fog is again expected to develop, mostly for areas on the caprock.
653 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure exits tonight. High pressure exits this evening. A moisture starved upper level short wave trough approaches tonight, and then crosses Monday morning, bring nothing more than mid and high cloud. However, low level moisture under a stout inversion, manifest as widespread stratus and low stratocu early this afternoon across virtually the entire midwest, will arrive behind the cold front just as the mid cloud exits. This may skirt far southern portions of the area with light rain and snow, with a coating possible across the higher ridges down in southwest VA.
Overnight, light westerly winds will develop as high pressure sags south into southeastern Kansas. Much warmer H85 air will push into the forecast area on Monday.
The upper level low was moving slowly eastward across west Texas this afternoon while the northern stream trough moves into Illinois. Lows tonight will dip back down into the low to mid 20s once again. Temperatures continue to moderate into the 50s by mid week as ridging occurs from California into the Plains. Most of the cold air and the northern jet remain well to the northeast while a trough passes well south across Texas.
611 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure moving in from the west remains over the area through Monday.
A late week cold front will bring a return of precipitation chances. Surface-based ridging of varying strength will continue to keep dry weather in the area into the midweek period. All models are now on board in keeping precipitation associated with southern stream low pressure fully south of the CWA on Monday night.
643 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build across the region through midweek, offering dry weather with near normal temperatures at first, then warming to above normal. The next chance for precipitation will occur late in the week as a cold front crosses the region. Broad mid level ridge to build off to the east coast with weak sheared out trof dropping southeast from the Upper MS VLY across the Great Lakes/ Ohio Valley tonight. With the passage of trof surface winds shift from southwest to west with some drier air advecting into the region. Temperatures look to be close to normal with highs Monday from the lower 30s northwest to near 40 southeast. Expect lows in the lower and middle 20s.
Also with the colder temps this afternoon, we will be getting down close to freezing will allow for some light patchy freezing rain possible in the lower valley elevations. So it is likely that this snow will do a better job hanging around on Monday, especially on the bridges and overpasses apart from the ground warmth.
626 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure exits tonight. High pressure exits this evening. A moisture starved upper level short wave trough approaches tonight, and then crosses Monday morning, bring nothing more than mid and high cloud. However, low level moisture under a stout inversion, manifest as widespread stratus and low stratocu early this afternoon across virtually the entire midwest, will arrive behind the cold front just as the mid cloud exits. This may skirt far southern portions of the area with light rain and snow, with a coating possible across the higher ridges down in southwest VA.
Weak and quick moving lee-side trough is passing by the area this afternoon but only consequence it'll bring is a few passing clouds.