Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A long wave trof axis was situated just to our W early this mrng. Have included slight chc PoPs early this mrng acrs SE AR as the trof axis conts working to the E and interacts with the aforementioned stalled out front. Once the upper trof shifts to the E of AR later today, a flat/zonal flow pattern wl be in place thru late Sun.
525 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (Today and tonight) The mild trend in overnight lows continues early this morning with warmer mid-level temperatures continuing to spread across the region despite northwest orientation of upper flow.
Dewpoints range from near 70 degrees to lower 70s, and temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. The ridge axis from an area of high pressure centered east of Bermuda will settle across South Florida, which will cause winds to decrease even further through Sunday. Behind the front, high pressure will build back into the region, which will tighten the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters and increase winds.
Behind this a positively tilted trough sets off the coast of the Pac Northwest and California. Further back a positively tilted a ridge runs up into Gulf of Alaska. This is proceeded by a progressive series of troughs and ridges stretching back over the northern Pacific. An inversion that develops over the Missouri and Milk river valleys will allow for snow melt from the southwest where temps are above freezing to ride over and get trapped under it this morning, and perhaps tomorrow morning, which should generate fog where skies manage to clear out. Meanwhile, a trough running the Length of British Columbia to southern California will move onshore.
On New Years Day, a mid level ridge will build up from the gulf coast and south winds will kick in. That is 15-20 degrees warmer than normal.
555 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Boosted afternoon highs a few degrees this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s under gusty downslope southwest winds. Temperatures on Sunday should be at least a few degrees warmer and may push near the 80 degree mark in some locations.
Polling of model fcst soundings from across our area suggests a wintery mix of light snow and light rain will develop with potentially a brief period of freezing drizzle and -fzra.
A flat ridge was in the process of moving across Arizona Saturday afternoon, just beginning to head to the east. The main influence of this high will continue to be a milder air mass and elevated snow levels. At elevations that are below freezing expected rimming to occur at least through midnight tonight.
153 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022 Upper trough beginning to dig into the western CONUS and will eventually eject into the central plains this week, supporting heavy snow over parts of the region. Weak impulse traversing the region this afternoon, resulting in some light snow over the higher elevations of the central and southern BH, with dry air winning out elsewhere. Attention then turns toward the vigorous upper trough taking aim on the region.
Current temps in the low/mid 60s will struggle to fall much past the lower 50s/near 50F overnight, given a prevailing WSW flow regime in place.
127 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA as the New Year rings in.
Aloft, the upper level trough will continue to flatten as it approach north of the Florida Peninsula. The cold front associated is expected to continue weakening while it stalls north and then move out of the area. Then, early week days should remain with rain free conditions as high pressure builds back and dominates the weather conditions.
Will struggle to clear dense clouds out north of Melbourne today anyway, as a trough tracks eastward north of the local area. Highs increasing into the lower 80s.
(This evening through Sunday) Boosted afternoon highs a few degrees this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s under gusty downslope southwest winds. Temperatures on Sunday should be at least a few degrees warmer and may push near the 80 degree mark in some locations.
1127 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (The rest of today ) Warmer conditions expected today as southerly winds will remain gusty through the afternoon.
427 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022 Upper trough beginning to dig into the western CONUS and will eventually eject into the central plains this week, supporting heavy snow over parts of the region. Weak impulse traversing the region this afternoon, resulting in some light snow over the higher elevations of the central and southern BH, with dry air winning out elsewhere. Attention then turns toward the vigorous upper trough taking aim on the region.
1118 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA as the New Year rings in.
326 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A passing cold front will bring a rainy end to 2022, as showers last for much of the evening.
High pressure aloft will bring mostly dry weather on Sunday.
As a trough continues to dig into the West Coast and moves eastward.
This activity is occurring along/just ahead of a weak cold front located from the OH Valley SSW into the lower MS Valley.
Polling of model fcst soundings from across our area suggests a wintry mix of light snow and light rain will develop with potentially a brief period of freezing drizzle and -fzra.
1, NAM), and now that the mid level clouds have pushed east, it is clear the low stratus deck is stationary and not moving.
533 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 Forecast highlights include a band of light snow late this afternoon and tonight followed by fog and freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.
The building ridge and drier air will slowly wear down the snow showers, but it will take much longer than most weather models anticipate.
Rainfall chances end around midnight as boundary washes out and leaves very moist air mass in place with widespread dew points in the 60s and expect low stratus to develop area-wide and lower down to the surface in dense fog by the morning hours and advisories will likely need to be posted over the land and likely into the Atlantic Coastal waters as the West-Southwest flow pushes the stratus/fog into the cooler ocean waters.
222 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 Weak wave moving across the area has produced a brief period of light rain/snow in our far nw counties but temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 30s there. Webcams/pavement temps indicate roads just wet with temps above freezing. The forecast soundings do indicate the low levels saturate across much of the cwa as the afternoon wears on. New Years Day: Dry with weak high pressure with temperatures warmer, highs mainly in the 40s.
939 AM MST Sat Dec 31 2022 MORNING UPDATE: Minor adjustments for temperatures, winds, and timing of patchy freezing fog along and near the northern lower river valleys. Behind this a positively tilted trough sets off the coast of the Pac Northwest and California. Further back a positively tilted a ridge runs up into Gulf of Alaska. This is proceeded by a progressive series of troughs and ridges stretching back over the northern Pacific. An inversion that develops over the Missouri and Milk river valleys will allow for snow melt from the southwest where temps are above freezing to ride over and get trapped under it this morning, and perhaps tomorrow morning, which should generate fog where skies manage to clear out. Meanwhile, a trough running the Length of British Columbia to southern California will move onshore.
Heavy snow is expected across the higher passes into the evening.
137 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 Light rain showers will taper off tonight after the passage of a weak cold front.
214 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 Forecast highlights include a band of light snow late this afternoon and tonight followed by fog and freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.
That zone of ascent and precipitation is forecast to quickly exit the area this evening as an upper trough progresses inland across the West Coast. Sunday afternoon weather is then forecast to be relatively benign beneath a midlevel ridge.
Freezing drizzle is possible tonight, especially in northwest Minnesota near the Red Lakes. Fog is the most dense along where moisture advection exists ahead of the 850mb trough. Weak warm air advection ahead of the 850 trough will allow for some freezing drizzle potential in northwest to north central Minnesota.
Morning GOES16 visible imagery showed the Straits convergence zone pivoting more northwestward north of Cuba, directed towards the Lower Keys.
Weak wave moving across the area has produced a brief period of light rain/snow in our far nw counties but temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 30s there. Webcams/pavement temps indicate roads just wet with temps above freezing. The forecast soundings do indicate the low levels saturate across much of the cwa as the afternoon wears on. New Years Day: Dry with weak high pressure with temperatures warmer, highs mainly in the 40s.
Expect showers to continue through the evening in the high country with light accumulations in most places and higher amounts (> 6") for the more orographically favored Park/N Gore Ranges and northern mountains. Even in the high country areas where nothing is in effect, expect winter driving conditions this afternoon/evening and travel with caution as slick roads are likely. Tomorrow, an upper level trough approaches the region coupled with an enhanced SW to NE oriented jet. Before favorable QG ascent enters, orographic snow showers are possible in the high county. However, model cross sections indicate a decrease in the depth of the moisture over the high country towards the afternoon which may limit orographic snow showers for a short period in the afternoon. Strong south-southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the forecast area early Sunday evening ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Partly cloudy skies today and warm with highs in the low to middle 80s. Great weather tonight for New Years Eve festivities, looking dry and warm with temps in the low to middle 70s around midnight.
Lows will be well above normal into the low-mid 50s areawide. Low-level thermo into the low-mid teens at 850mb & 925mb, respectively. With some drier air & low-level ridge off to the SE, expect a warm & dry aftn with highs into the low-mid 70s areawide. Overcast conditions should help overnight lows dip into the mid 50s into the low 60s across most of the forecast area.
Late evening temps will be slipping through the low 50s into the upper 40s with light south winds. (Today through Sunday) A cold front is poised to move across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours. Daytime highs this weekend will remain unseasonably warm but Saturday night's lows will be several degrees cooler owing to the effects of today's fropa.
Given persistent local light winds and decent chances for clearing skies tonight, would not be surprised to see another round of lower elevation / river valley freezing fog sometime tonight through early Sunday morning.
1138 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (Today and tonight) The mild trend in overnight lows continues early this morning with warmer mid-level temperatures continuing to spread across the region despite northwest orientation of upper flow.
936 AM PDT Thu Apr 15 2021 An upper ridge will gradually build into the area from the northwest through the weekend.
1154 AM MDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Aviation Section Updated The easterly moist flow combined with upper level low pressure that have been producing areas of light snow and even some freezing drizzle and fog across north-central Montana, will give way to increasing northerly flow and a more showery regime by this afternoon.
Meanwhile, water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough over New Mexico. As the trough approaches today, upper level ascent will increase leading to scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development later this morning and continuing into the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue tonight into Friday morning as the main upper level low over the Rockies ejects into the Plains.
339 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 High pressure over the northern Plains will extend into the region through Friday night.
Despite this temps will still be warmer tomorrow afternoon than what we have seen today as the sun will be able to heat the surface more effectively as, even though there will still be some cloud cover, clouds will begin to thin.
In this area temps are into the low 40s. Plenty of cloud cover under the high, extending from ND well into south central Canada. Leaned toward the cooler side of guidance with highs only in the upper 30s to low 40s. Friday night through next Thursday, look for generally cooler than average temperatures with minimal chances for weather impacts across the period.
Nudged highs down a touch with shallow cooler air and cloud cover remaining in place.
238 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Upper level trough over the central Rockies has begun to slide eastward towards the region today, with increasing mid and high clouds by this evening. The inverted trough will slide east through Missouri on Friday/Friday night.
A trough digs into Texas and pushes the surface boundary southward over the state and a series of short waves move over.
There is a very subtle PV lobe shearing from NE SD into WRN MN with a weak 850 hPa trough slipping southward, and if this is helping to focus any lift, that should pretty much be removed from the area between 12-15z. Clouds will be fairly prevalent as lower clouds back west/southwest today, and other mid/high clouds spread in from the west in advance of upper closed low moving into the central Rockies. By tonight, further decoupling, but more clouds will yield a majority of lows at or above freezing.
That will keep highs cooler than normal in the upper 60s in the northwesternmost counties and 70s elsewhere.
In between was some weak upper level ridging, with the ridge axis basically right along the eastern CO border. This should keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s, though some spots across northeast Nebraska could struggle to get out of the 40s. Meanwhile, the low and associated precip off to the west will be moving toward the area during the day, with latest short term guidance suggesting the more widespread precip moves into the forecast area later in the evening.
212 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Drier and cooler high pressure will work its way into the region, along with breezy conditions through Friday.
A western closed upper low pressure system will be heading east across Utah towards Colorado today. Thermal profiles at the onset of precip favors liquid/rain initially, however cooler air is drawn south overnight leading to mixed precipitation of rain/snow or a change over to all snow overnight into Friday morning across the western half of our cwa. Precipitation chances continue thru the day on Friday in dynamics as the upper low tracks across NE/KS, with snow transitioning back to rain with rising daytime temps.
Although below normal temperatures will continue, the combination of increasing cloud cover tonight along with slightly warmer lows should inhibit frost formation again late tonight. An upper level low now over northeastern NV will move eastward into the Central Plains on Friday.
Tonight and Friday Northwest upper flow is expected through Friday, but heights will be rising as a weak upper ridge approaches. Highs Friday will also be close to normal, with the exception of the Lake Michigan shore where it will be cooler than usual.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies.
After these heavy snowbands move out of the area, we will be left with more wrap around precip from the upper low. The positive tilted trough axis centered just over central Wyoming begins shifting towards the southeast just out of our region with a ridge slowly pushing in behind it.
The farther southwest you get on Friday, the more cloud cover you'll start to encounter from the upper low passing to our south. So even if a place like Redwood Falls loses the low clouds Friday, they'll just be replaced by mid/upper level cloud cover. Not much is expected to happen Friday night, with precip associated with the upper low passing to our south staying to our south.
623 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Drier and cooler high pressure will work its way into the region, along with breezy conditions through Friday.
756 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 An upper low, centered over Lake Erie this mid afternoon hour, will drift southeast slowly cross PA tonight through Friday. Colder air will sweep across the region late today and turn the temperatures much cooler for the next few days. Some snow will fall across the higher terrain of the north and west later today into Friday and a light accumulation of an inch or so is expected across the ridgetops of Northern and Western PA by daybreak friday.
/issued 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021/ Upper low centered over UT this morning will pass over CO tonight as it opens up and move onto the plains Friday.
The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern Fri and Sat with mainly clear skies.
316 PM MDT Thu Apr 15 2021 The low over Utah and Nevada that has been our weather maker is continuing its slow track east. The lower elevations does not look to accumulate much generally less than an inch. Beginnings of upper ridging and mostly northerly flow aloft wil occur this weekend to bring about just mild temperatures in the upper 50s for the area, which are about normal for this time of year.
Afternoon convection has developed once again today as a large upper-level low pressure system remains parked over the Great Basin. As the low dives farther south on Friday evening and overnight, better forcing and moisture convergence will develop over the central and southern mountains of Colorado. Temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees below average for mid-April with this persistent area of low pressure in place over the central Rockies.
Heavier bands briefly show up and drive visibility to around 1 mile, but the majority of the snow has been on the light snow with minimum accumulation in the lower elevations. TWH The low over Utah and Nevada that has been our weather maker is continuing its slow track east. The lower elevations does not look to accumulate much generally less than an inch. Beginnings of upper ridging and mostly northerly flow aloft wil occur this weekend to bring about just mild temperatures in the upper 50s for the area, which are about normal for this time of year.
643 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 An upper low, centered over Lake Erie this mid afternoon hour, will drift southeast slowly cross PA tonight through Friday. Colder air will sweep across the region late today and turn the temperatures much cooler for the next few days. Some snow will fall across the higher terrain of the north and west later today into Friday and a light accumulation of an inch or so is expected across the ridgetops of Northern and Western PA by daybreak friday.
(This evening through Friday) Increasing ascent from upper jet exit region and central Rockies trough has enhanced isentropic ascent atop the residual frontal slope causing an area of rain across our southwest counties. As the influence from the trough peaks later tonight and mid-level lapse rates steepen, modest MUCAPE will develop and could support more intense convective updrafts capable of hail.
The upper level low over Georgian Bay will slowly continue to move east as the western upper low moves into the northern plains by 00z Sat. As the low continues to slowly move away, the scattered rain and snow showers will gradually come to an end this evening as well and then drier weather moves in. However, a series of clipper-like systems are expected to carve out a long-wave trough across eastern North America. Each wave is expected to bring a cooler air mass with it resulting in a cool and cloudy pattern with a couple chances of primarily light precipitation.
Best chances for measurable precipitation will occur near the MO River Valley along the NE/SD/IA border, as that is where some mid-level frontogenesis sets up out ahead of the upper level low.
629 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Upper level trough over the central Rockies has begun to slide eastward towards the region today, with increasing mid and high clouds by this evening. The inverted trough will slide east through Missouri on Friday/Friday night.
A gradual moistening of the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere will occur mainly after midnight tonight, as cirrus spills over the ridge axis and across the WFO PAH forecast area. The first wave ejection from the double barreled Low pattern sees it breaking into/across the dampening mean surface to mid level short wave ridge (aforementioned in the short term) beginning Friday night.
Satellite imagery depicts a deep upper trough currently crossing the Rockies. With near-surface temperatures well above freezing, precipitation will likely start as rain, but forecast soundings show this transitioning to snow overnight (or at least a rain/snow mix) for many locations due to dynamic cooling and continued weak cold air advection. Expect off and on light rain to continue, as the upper trough moves overhead.
The closed upper low that has been spinning over the western US the last few days is finally tracking to the east as the blocking pattern that has existed is weakening. Initially, the lower levels will be very dry. But as the ascent helps saturate the low levels, precipitation will begin to move in to the area from west.
Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from Alberta/Saskatchewan into the lower Mississippi River Valley will shift slowly eastward tonight.
/Issued 347 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021/ A pair of cold fronts will drop through today marking and end to the record breaking high temperatures we've had over the past few days. A line of showers and thunderstorms have sank south of the CWA border over the course of the morning and afternoon and dry air reinforced by NW flow aloft is bringing cooler temperatures and drier air steadily south across the region.
Old frontal boundary is out over the coastal waters with mainly east to northeast flow bringing slightly drier air in the low levels, and therefore, a majority of the low clouds have dissipated. Next upper level disturbance will bring a surface cold front down into the region and with it another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly at the terminals during the afternoon on Friday.
An upper level trough crossing the central Rockies will send a wave across the eastern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains early Friday morning with expectation of generating more rain showers and possibly thunder, with greatest potential impact at KCDS. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift as well into the airports around midday Friday and an MVFR cloud layer looks likely, favoring KCDS and perhaps KPVW. Despite this temps will still be warmer tomorrow afternoon than what we have seen today as the sun will be able to heat the surface more effectively as, even though there will still be some cloud cover, clouds will begin to thin.
North flow will diminish after sunset as high pressure ridging builds southeast into the OH and TN valleys. The low level ridge axis will keep dry and stable air in place through Friday into Friday night. However, mid and high clouds will develop due to overrunning of the low level cool airmass. If the low levels can saturate a bit more quickly Friday evening, there could be a bit more.
Gehring (Issued 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021) Tonight through Friday night: North to northwest flow remains in place across the region today, as the area is situated between a closed low across the eastern Great Lakes and another closed low over the Rocky Mountains. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s. Highs away from Lake Michigan will warm into the mid to upper 50s, with cooler readings in the 40s near the lake.