Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1153 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A cold front will move through the region this morning and bring drying from the northwest. It will be a rather windy day with gusts of 30 to 50 mph possible across portions of the open wheat country of Washington and the Idaho Palouse and on some ridges.
An upper level trough currently extends across eastern Oklahoma and far western Arkansas, with dense low cloudiness and a few showers continuing across areas near and east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas border.
High pressure will build over the southwest through mid week with above average high temperatures. Another cold front could impact the area late this week. Unseasonably strong high pressure along the west coast will bring dry and clear conditions with high temperatures well above average for late October.
The brief cool down will end today as a strong area of high pressure begins to build over the Western U. Height rises on the 500mb surface already up into the 590s on neighboring 12z RAOBs and in spite of the cool morning start, highs will rebound in the low 90s today. Clear skies under dry northwesterly flow will persist through early this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the Western U.
1109 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Weak ridging has set up across the High Plains this morning with the next bit of active weather moving into the Pacific NW. Warmer air will be very short-lived across the CWA as the next cold front pushes through tonight. Strong upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS Tue/Wed.
Weak troughing over the region will result in a front trying to drop south into the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s.
On Sunday, a cool front moving through will cause temperatures to be about 10 degrees cooler than Saturday, which should bring values back down to seasonal averages.
337 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Short term progs are handling the early morning convection fairly well and continue to shift the higher coverage of precip southward through today.
653 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. The upper level trough axis will set up over New England today.
A broad H300 trough was evident in the early afternoon water vapor imagery across the central Great Lakes region, dipping southwestward into Iowa and NE Kansas. Upper level ridging builds eastward tonight and tomorrow with high pressure over the Upper Mississippi River valley sliding southward and back building to the west. Upper ridge expands into northeast Kansas by Saturday evening with dry conditons returning to the area.
A cold front associated with the upper trough will also progress southeastward and should help to fuel scattered convection downwind of Lake Erie during the afternoon across NW PA.
427 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across Central Illinois this morning. And with slightly drier air in place, the warm temperatures in the low 80s with plenty of sunshine and light winds will result in a mild, pleasant day for Central Illinois. Overnight tonight, the ridge axis shifts to the east and the winds become increasingly south/southwesterly, starting a prolonged period of warm air advection into the region that will bring a warming trend into the work week.
Northwest flow aloft will reinforce the lower dewpoints and provide temperatures near or just below averages. The center of the high will retreat westward by Sunday as an upper-level low begins to dig into the Great Lakes. Will continue a mostly dry forecast for Sunday, but am introducing slight to low chance PoPs for Sunday evening across the north, as the trough axis moves near Lake Erie.
The broad upper level low to our west will continue moving away in easterly flow. Another upper level low in the northeastern Bay of Campeche, with a trough extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico will move east today. The northward extent of the trough will move west through the southern half of Texas. This weak upper troughing, along with good low level moisture, and very little capping will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly east of an Abilene to Ozona line.
300 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air data depict an amplified mid-level ridge from the Great Basin to lee of the Canadian Rockies and a downstream trough across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Short range models indicate an embedded H5 vort maxima remaining locked in across the high plains of eastern Colorado today within a large scale upper level ridge. Very little change to the air mass across the high plains will once again result in highs pushing only up into the 80s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 90s(F) further south and east. Spurious vorticity max, or weakness embedded in the upper ridge aloft, will continue to meander over/near the western zones through Sunday. With the high pressure ridge weakened aloft, temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees below normal, in the upper 80s to near 90.
515 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front and associated low pressure area move east of the region this morning. Weak high pressure then builds in from the west thereafter through Sunday evening. A cold front will slowly approach from the west for late Sunday night.
Very warm to hot weather will develop inland this weekend as high pressure builds across California from the desert southwest. High pressure aloft is building westward into southern and central California during the weekend. Thus, much warmer temperatures are anticipated today and Sunday, especially across inland locations as well as in the higher terrain. Some inland locations could be 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs today forecast to exceed 100 degrees in some areas. In addition to a warmer airmass, this high pressure ridge will also bring in drier air, especially inland away from the marine influence.
Night/morning low clouds and fog will be restricted to coastal areas as the marine layer becomes shallower under strengthening high pressure aloft. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 3 AM PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper- level ridge centered over southern Nevada, and an upper-level low just off the coast of British Columbia. The ridge may be a bit strong for much convection over the mountains today, but a stray shower/thunderstorm could develop this afternoon as a weak vort- max moves over the area.
The aforementioned deep-layer ridge will break down this weekend as a 500 mb trough amplifies over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the cold front currently across the Midwest will move into northern GA and AL, but will stall and eventually dissipate there. While there may be a little Q-G forcing in our region (associated with the upper trough later this weekend), the main impact of the trough will be to concentrate plentiful deep-layer moisture across our area, and to generate southwest winds in the 1000-700 m b layer, which is typically favorable for higher rain chances. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, lows in the mid 70s.
223 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 The frontal boundary is now to our south, however, dew points still over in the lower 70s across our southern tier of counties. Sunday night, a piece of energy tops the upper ridge, to our west, and falls down the Wabash valley, on the back side of the upper trof, to our east.
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A broad upper ridge over the Western US will shift east over the coming week. However an upper low/inverted trough over Northern Mexico looks to hang around for the next several days and could be a wx producer. By late in the week the upper ridge will shift back to the west. Expected more sun today which will result in warmer temperatures as 90s return. It was the inverted trough that was responsible for storms yesterday that continue into this morning. Today expect most storms to be along and west of the Pecos over the higher elevations. Have rain chances favoring the higher elevations out through the extended.
Precipitation has largely diminished this evening as a weak cold front over central KY slowly washes south. Scattered showers/storms are ongoing south of a very weak cold front. Weak cold front is hung up near the Ohio River and continues a very slow trek southward across the Ohio Valley. Temps will run on the low side of normal, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s.
This has created quite the low level moisture gradient across IA at 07z with 70 dewpoints along the MO River and the mid 50s east. This higher theta-e/instability airmass will encompass the entire forecast area later today.
Very warm to hot weather will develop inland over the weekend as high pressure builds across California from the desert southwest.
Cooler northeast winds later tonight could introduce some MVFR CIGS across the area. There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Look for light and variable winds to turn southwest this morning and increase ahead of the cold front. There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Look for light and variable winds to turn southwest this morning and increase ahead of the cold front. Northeast winds arriving in the wake of a passing cold front on Sunday could bring small craft advisory conditions Sunday into Sunday evening.
Short range models indicate an embedded H5 vort maxima remaining locked in across the high plains of eastern Colorado today within a large scale upper level ridge. Very little change to the air mass across the high plains will once again result in highs pushing only up into the 80s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 90s(F) further south and east. Drier conditions are then expected to take over by the middle part of the week as medium range models remain consistent showing upper level ridging moving out across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. A gradual warming trend will occur through the middle part the week as the upper level ridge moves across the region while low level southerlies prevail across western Kansas.
1234 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Quiet weather expected across central and southeast Illinois overnight as high pressure builds into the area. The much drier air mass will allow lows to be noticeably cooler than it has been lately. Cold front has pushed south of our far southeast CWA this afternoon. This drier air will overspread the forecast area tonight, as high pressure in Minnesota settles southeast into central Illinois by early Saturday morning. The first half of the weekend looks quite nice as a result, with highs on Saturday in the lower 80s after starting off in the upper 50s in some areas. The upper ridge currently over the Rockies will edge eastward and flatten a bit, allowing the center of a 594 dm high pressure to push into the mid-Mississippi valley.
334 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across Central Illinois this morning. And with slightly drier air in place, the warm temperatures in the low 80s with plenty of sunshine and light winds will result in a mild, pleasant day for Central Illinois. Overnight tonight, the ridge axis shifts to the east and the winds become increasingly south/southwesterly, starting a prolonged period of warm air advection into the region that will bring a warming trend into the work week.
This moisture, coupled with increased instability and a warm airmass will produce scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southwest Idaho and across the Magic Valley. Temperatures today will be near 100F across the lower valleys. Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday with a 10 degree drop.
High pressure overhead through the weekend will result in hot temperatures over the next couple days with limited monsoon moisture mainly focused across northwest Arizona.
The primary short wave trough was sliding over North Dakota early this morning and will dive southeast over the western Great Lakes region in response to the building upper ridge over the plains. Will increase pops this afternoon as a cold front drops into far northwest Wisconsin and the primary short wave drops in. Canadian high pressure will drop into the area late tonight into Sunday for a dry quiet period. Breezy northeast winds along lake Michigan may produce slightly cooler temperatures Sunday.
247 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Quite warm and generally dry weather will hold over the CWA today through Sunday with upper ridging remaining over the area.
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Upper level ridge over the Rockies will move east and flatten over the Northern Plains by Sun and over the Great Lakes by 12Z Tue. Upper level trough off the BC coast will follow in tow and move into northeastern Canada by the end of the period. With upper level ridging parked over the region, Sunday will bring a dry and quiet day to end the weekend. As the upper ridge pushes off to the east and begins to flatten, the area will return to a more active zonal flow pattern. The region will be stuck in zonal flow aloft before transitioning to slightly more northwesterly flow between an upper low near Hudson Bay and ridging continuing to build across the southern CONUS.
High pressure drops back in behind the exiting front on Saturday. The period begins with an upper level ridge over the region. Winds will be gusty in north central SD where the pressure strengthens ahead of a low pressure system.
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front is currently clearing the forecast area this morning with cooler and drier conditions expected for the weekend.
359 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. The upper level trough axis will set up over New England today.
355 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley will drift slowly east across the forecast area today. The high will slide SE Sunday allowing a cold front to push across the forecast area Sunday night. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi will drift slowly east today.
Ridging aloft weakens with slight height falls which may allow for more isolated thunderstorm development over our northern Laramie, Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges in the afternoon. Otherwise, continued mostly sunny and quite warm with slightly warmer temperatures based on 700 mb temperatures. Continued dry and mild with ridging aloft. Low temperatures slightly warmer than Saturday night with airmass modification. Upper high will be centered across the central plains and the Mid-Mississippi river valley through the period. Flow around the west side of this upper high will be a favorable trajectory to advect monsoonal moisture into the intermountain west.
238 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Slightly drier and cooler today and tonight under weak high pressure influences. Next cold front Sunday night. Cold front in the process of clearing the area, but fairly difficult to identify it currently from observations. On the synoptic scale, wakening high pressure influences work their way eastward into the middle Ohio Valley. High pressure will give way to a approaching cold front.
203 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front is currently clearing the forecast area this morning with cooler and drier conditions expected for the weekend.
137 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. The trailing cold front extends S/W toward across Lake Erie. Heavier showers/storms will finally clear the forecast area by the late evening into the early overnight as the cold front pushes south and east. cold front will be east of us but lingering upper trough will result in considerable cloudiness with a few scattered showers possible. Weak ridging and quiet weather will be in place Sunday morning, but this dry pattern will be short-lived as the next upper wave and associated surface front drop in from the NE and into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms expected.
It'll be muggy with lows and dew points both in the low-mid 70s (F). On Saturday, a weak upper-level trough will nudge into the region, between a sprawling 500mb ridge over the western U. and Atlantic ridge; this'll be in tandem with a weak surface front.
Surface analysis reveals a weak cold front north of the TN border that is slowly moving south. Drier air and subsidence associated with high pressure have resulted in mostly clear skies behind the front. Warm and dry weather can be expected Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms were affecting portions of south central Montana early this morning as some weak energy was rotating around the ridge in place over the region. The low level jet will also cause gusty southerly ridge winds tonight with poor to marginal RH recoveries. On Sunday, a pre-frontal trof is progged to move into the area during the morning with a cold front moving through during the afternoon and evening hours.
High pressure will keep dry conditions across central Indiana through Sunday morning. A cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening before dry weather returns for the beginning of the work week. Some cumulus could form this afternoon, but high pressure and subsidence should prevent much development.
1202 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 For the ArkLaTex, weak high pressure is building down the MS valley with a surface front that will ease into the region with light NE winds filtering into the area tomorrow. /issued 926 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ Convection along a southward moving outflow boundary which began earlier this morning across Central Arkansas has now made it into the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas.
This activity will continue through the evening as a cold front, currently located just to the north of the FA, moves south. Temperatures are generally in the lower 90s this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be a couple of degrees cooler on Saturday given the front and consequent cloud cover.
1141 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Latest data is showing a slower eastward trend with the storm activity tonight, which is not unreasonable given the presence of the ridge overhead. Have therefore kept the higher PoPs and QPF amounts over mainly the southwest and southern portions of the forecast area through Saturday with the possibility of localized heavy rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flash flooding. Saturday night-Sunday: Weak closed upper level low meanders near the KS/CO border through Sunday night.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level ridge of high pressure located across the Intermountain West and the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is shifting eastward across the Central Plains.
352 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure has begun to nose down out of Canada into North Dakota. The edge of the high will skip across northeast South Dakota tonight, and with low humidity we should see fairly pleasant temperatures. As the high continues on its path southeast, a gradient forms across the state, about 10mb. We should mix fairly deeply as well, so will go a few degrees warmer and drier than blended guidance.
In addition, high pressure in the mid-levels was centered over southern NV. However, with some weak lift courtesy of an upper level trough/shear axis, a few storms may persist tonight near the coastal plains. On Sunday, we expect another round of mainly diurnal convection as plenty of moisture and a weak upper trough/shear axis remain across the region. With deeper moisture near the coastal plains, this area will be favored for the higher rain chances.
High pressure will build across the region through the weekend bringing hot temperatures.
Shower coverage and intensity continues to decrease early this morning with very spotty activity east of I-99 and along/south of the PA Turnpike - where surface dewpoints are still in the low 70s. A cold front associated with the upper trough will also progress southeastward and should help to fuel scattered convection downwind of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon/evening across NW PA.
245 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Surface analysis reveals a weak cold front north of the TN border that is slowly moving south. Drier air and subsidence associated with high pressure have resulted in mostly clear skies behind the front. Warm and dry weather can be expected Sunday as high pressure remains in control.
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Upper level ridge over the Rockies will move east and flatten over the Northern Plains by Sun and over the Great Lakes by 12Z Tue. Upper level trough off the BC coast will follow in tow and move into northeastern Canada by the end of the period. The region will be stuck in zonal flow aloft before transitioning to slightly more northwesterly flow between an upper low near Hudson Bay and ridging continuing to build across the southern CONUS.
614 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 An upper level trough will cross northern New England today, while weak low pressure passes to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will occur along and in advance of this trough today. As the trough exits tonight, clearing and drier weather can be expected that will last into Sunday.
Later this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected within a mid level thetae ridge axis and along a remnant boundary lingering across central and northwestern OK.
SE Idaho will remain firmly entrenched beneath the fringes of a strong high pressure system centered over the Great Basin through today. On Sunday, developing low pressure will swing through central British Columbia and Alberta, which will flatten the high pressure ridge and send a weak cold front across our region. After another hot day Saturday, enough cloud cover and a slight intrusion of cooler air behind the cold front may prove enough to end the 90 degree stretch at Pocatello. With the cold front, SW winds may become a bit breezy on Sunday, creating chop on area bodies of water.
Until then, if you really like rain and storms, today may be your best day to see them as a weak cold front sinks south across Middle Tennessee. Even though this front will have minimal impact in decreasing High Temperatures, the lower dewpoints will hopefully feel somewhat noticed.
348 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Early Saturday morning, water vapor imagery showed a large upper- level ridge extending from the desert southwest to the central plains. However, quite a bit of monsoonal moisture was circulating through the ridge and there was a small mid-level low embedded within the ridge over eastern Colorado. As the easterly wave moves slowly westward away from the region today, any upper-level support for convective development this afternoon becomes very nebulous, and model progs show a decrease in deep-layer moisture as drier air located over western OK and north Texas rotates around the upper high and over West Texas.
about 5 degrees cooler than Fridays temperatures. Cooler drier airmass will allow temperatures to cool to lower to mid 60s north and mid to upper 60s south about 5 degrees cooler than this mornings lows.
Will continue a mainly dry and seasonal forecast across the region today with high pressure ridge still in control. By tonight and Sunday a weakness in the ridge will work its way toward the region bringing an increase in moisture and should give us much better rain chances for Sunday. Temperatures today remain similar to yesterday, then a few degrees cooler for Sunday with increased cloud cover and rain chances.
305 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will persist today as high pressure drifts south across the Great Lakes. An ideal mid July day in store for today as these conditions will continue as ridge drifts slowly south. Otherwise a rather comfortable night for this time of year as overnight lows drop into the lower 60s. Short wave trough will continue to dig southeastward into SE Ontario and eastern great lakes Sunday.
421 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak low pressure trough is situated across central GA early this morning. A weak cold front is also situated across the TN valley and Mid Atlantic. The front will be accompanied by a mid level trough axis with plenty of available energy.