Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1017 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through tonight, then be replaced by high pressure to the north late Tuesday through the end of the week. A weak cold front will stall over the area over the weekend. As high pressure continues to build over the region from the southwest overnight, a weak cold front with limited moisture will approach the region from the northwest late. As the front weakens high pressure to the north will build over the region with the flow becoming NE-E. Pred dry weather and warming trend expected this week into the weekend with high pressure in control. Coastal showers will be possible late week into the weekend as a weak coastal trough develops.
A cold front stalled across southern Utah will dissipate overnight.
Expect a slight chance of showers tonight through Tuesday as a weak low pressure system moves through Southern Arizona. The weak closed low is over southeastern Arizona this evening and is continuing to move east. There are two areas of thunderstorms assocaited with this low. A weak cold front moving south out of Utah could trigger a few light showers in the Four Corners area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. A weak closed low will drift along the southern Arizona border tonight and into Tuesday. Some moisture advecting northward ahead of the low will lead to a chance of shower tonight and Tuesday. The best chance for showers will be mainly in the southeast portions of the CWA and near the 4-corners, where a weak cold front will affect that area.
High pressure aloft will remain over the region through Tuesday.
720 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Axis of the high pressure over the area will shift eastward ahead of a weak and dry cold front as it sags southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight.
1020 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Axis of the high pressure over the area will shift eastward ahead of a weak and dry cold front as it sags southeast across the Ohio Valley overnight.
Expect a slight chance of showers tonight through Tuesday as a weak low pressure system moves through Southern Arizona. A weak closed low will drift along the southern Arizona border tonight and into Tuesday. Some moisture advecting northward ahead of the low will lead to a chance of shower tonight and Tuesday. The best chance for showers will be mainly in the southeast portions of the CWA and near the 4-corners, where a weak cold front will affect that area.
534 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Mean upper level pattern will continue to favor active NW flow with the sfc cyclone track over the region. Have sided with the cooler side of guidance. Warmer conds expected Tue as return flow ensues ahead of the next low. Frontal boundary will trend back north again toward the end of the week as the the next expected sfc cyclone develops and WAA ensues.
707 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 For the 31/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions with SKC for now but a weak cold front shifting into the region this evening through Tue morning will eventually usher in a mid level cloud deck at around 8Kft before gradually lowering through the daytime hours Tuesday. /issued 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ Weak cold front nearing Red River Valley, and will slowly move into area overnight. A partial dry slotting to occur into ne TX on Wed, but upper ridging over northern Mexico stalling out and allowing moisture to work back into the area from the east later in the week despite increased zonal flow aloft.
1031 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Intense low pressure in Quebec will continue moving away from the region overnight. A trough of low pressure will cross the area Tuesday evening.
However, it looks like they are here to stay for several more hours as an upper-level trof and associated cyclonic flow slide across the area.
904 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 An approaching weak cold front will stall and dissipate. General ridging will remain in the region during the rest of the week. Evening GOES-16 Low level water vapor loop indicates the jet has gotten as far south into the region as it is going to get, and is actually bumping back northward a touch in response to ridging ahead of the upper low in the southwestern states. The models show dry high pressure ridging into the region from the west and north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
02z sfc analysis shows a weak cold front continuing to make steady progress south and east into our region. Other changes were made to diurnal trends as temperatures were actually a little warmer in the wake of the boundary across our northwest zones and this is due to mixing. /issued 707 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ For the 31/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions with SKC for now but a weak cold front shifting into the region this evening through Tue morning will eventually usher in a mid level cloud deck at around 8Kft before gradually lowering through the daytime hours Tuesday.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight east of Tucson followed by cooler temperatures on Tuesday.
752 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. Drier and cooler air continues to advect into the region. Gusty winds between 25 to 30 kt will continue to diminish into tonight as the pressure gradient weakens between the departing low and incoming high pressure. Expecting a few locations to the north and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island to approach the freezing mark or even a few degrees below.
744 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. A period of flurries/light snow is possible across the northern mountain ridges say from 2 to 4 am. These showers are associated with a cold front which is moving towards the area. Temperatures should be cold enough tonight for some of the precipitation in the highest elevations to fall as a rain/snow mix. High pressure will being to nose into the region on Tuesday resulting in dry conditions along with lots of sunshine by afternoon.
Broad northwest flow across the western US with high pressure off Pacific NW coast and trough over the Mississippi Valley.
Overnight lows are expected to run about 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight than last night in most areas, with temperatures generally in the 50s to lower 60s although a few locations acrs central LA could fall into the upper 40s.
1154 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through tonight, then be replaced by high pressure to the north late Tuesday through the end of the week. A weak cold front will stall over the area over the weekend. As high pressure continues to build over the region from the southwest overnight, a weak cold front with limited moisture will approach the region from the northwest late. As the front weakens high pressure to the north will build over the region with the flow becoming NE-E. Pred dry weather and warming trend expected this week into the weekend with high pressure in control. Coastal showers will be possible late week into the weekend as a weak coastal trough develops.
908 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Early evening surface analysis depicts weak high pressure (1019 millibars) centered over our region. Light west-southwest low level winds will develop to the north of the high pressure center overnight across inland portions of southeast Georgia, which should keep lows in the lower 40s. A continued offshore component to the low level wind should bring lows down into the 40s at the immediate coast by sunrise.
A cold front. Areas to the east of the boundary will have the greatest chances of rain Tuesday as WAA redevelops as weak low pressure may try to develop along the boundary. Strengthening/transitioning troughing will aid in shower development in the morning (especially Coastal Plains) with a possible increase in coverage occurring in the afternoon as a mid level s/w trough advects east across TX and as an 80kt H25 jet nudges east across S Central TX. but high freezing and WBZ levels should preclude much if any large hail.
A quiet afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure creating dry conditions, with nary a cloud in sky. As mentioned, a weak (dry) cold front will move through the region by early Tuesday morning, veering our winds to a NW to northerly direction. This shift will bring in some cooler air which will help to keep temperatures in check by a few degrees during the day. Clouds will filter into the region as temperatures fall from the lower 60s into the 50s and 40s over the course of the evening and night.
The last short wave has moved south of the area, and the offshore ridge remains in place, so low level flow is now turning easterly. It will also be windy over the ridges, especially the Coast Range of southwest Oregon and the adjacent Siskiyous.
1103 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 As of this afternoon, the center of the upper low was over the western Great Lakes, with strong cyclonic flow and cold air advection across our region. Snow showers will continue this afternoon, possibly mixed with rain at times but for the most part should fall as snow with temperatures in the mid 30s and the fairly shallow layer near the ground with temperatures above freezing. This will occur as the upper low shifts eastward tonight.
1042 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. A period of flurries/light snow is possible across the northern mountain ridges say from 2 to 4 am. These showers are associated with a cold front which is moving towards the area. Temperatures should be cold enough tonight for some of the precipitation in the highest elevations to fall as a rain/snow mix. High pressure will being to nose into the region on Tuesday resulting in dry conditions along with lots of sunshine by afternoon.
1158 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Intense low pressure in Quebec will continue moving away from the region overnight. A trough of low pressure will cross the area Tuesday evening.
1000 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure on Tuesday will bring mostly sunny but cool conditions.
1232 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. Temperatures across the Pine Barrens are remaining warmer than forecast due to sustained winds around 10 mph, which should continue through much of the night. Weak front or trough approaches the area overnight. Drier and cooler air continues to advect into the region. The pressure gradient weakens between the departing low and incoming high pressure. Expecting a few locations to the north and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island to approach the freezing mark or even a few degrees below.
735 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 An approaching weak cold front will stall and dissipate. General ridging will remain in the region during the rest of the week. With the dry air mass and light winds expected at the surface, leaned closer to the cooler NAM guidance for tonight. Have overnight lows in the lower 40s, under mostly clear skies. May be just slightly warmer near larger lake waters due to water temps and better mixing overnight. The models show dry high pressure ridging into the region from the west and north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
High pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and light winds. The clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling and overnight temperatures are expected to fall rapidly and below freezing across the region.
As the area of high pressure pushes southeastward toward the central Plains, NW flow aloft has already begun to bring more clouds to the region. Southwest winds ahead of the low should warm things into the 40s most areas. The trough broadens afterwards and sharpens over the Pacific NW over the weekend.
629 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Canadian high pressure across the region will be reinforced behind a dry cold front tonight. A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. A dry cold front will shift south through the forecast area tonight, shifting winds from SW to NE, with colder and drier air filtering in behind it. Some increase in moisture may occur Sunday and Sunday night with a weak inverted trough lingering in the wake of the cold front.
An upper level trough will cross the region through this evening.
307 PM PST Sat Dec 30 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the West Coast will provide quiet and dry weather through New Years Day, with well above average daytime temperatures and mainly light valley winds. Mid and high level clouds will move over the ridge and into northern CA/NV the next few days as low pressure deepens over the Eastern Pacific.
822 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 High pressure building in behind the front well offshore will allow for clear skies and cool temperatures in the 40s most areas overnight.
This air is very shallow, but is bringing the boundary layer to saturation, w/accompanying stratus/freezing fog.
537 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will continue through at least the first half of the pd, with patchy drizzle areawide and possibly freezing drizzle at KELD/KMLU after midnight. Freezing line currently from Durant Oklahoma to near Fort Smith Arkansas. Low-level moisture ascent from a trough in the Gulf of Mexico over shallow cold airmass will allow for continued chances for drizzle and light rain tonight. As temperatures fall below freezing north of I-20, precipitation to change over to a mixed bag of sleet and freezing rain. Through mid-morning, a slight chance for freezing rain and sleet can be expected across Monroe and Ruston and points north. Temperatures on Sunday night to fall into the teens across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas while the remainder of the ArkLaTex falls to the lower 20s.
606 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 High pressure over region is resulting in lighter winds over northern valley but ambient temps in the 20s below keeping wind chill warning well in tact. The Arctic high pressure center will nose down out of Canada into the Western Plains. At this point it seems like readings will be slightly less cold as warmer 925mb temps come in from the north.
With while the lower elevations will probably decouple to a degree, the ridges should not. This will mean dangerously cold wind chills in the higher elevations.
High pressure over southern California brought warm to record breaking high temperatures across the higher elevations of northern Arizona. Lower elevations remained cooler under temperature inversions. The high pressure will weaken slightly on Sunday with highs lowering several degrees.
Snow reports are starting to come in from the ridges that are straddling warning criteria. With this in mind combined with upslope snow showers with increasing lake fetch through the night, the advisories for most of the ridges have been upgraded to winter storm warnings. This isn't even taking into consideration localized higher amounts from squalls, especially in the northern half of the ridges.
Periods of FZDZ, perhaps even a little -SN early Sunday, will accompany the low clouds overnight. MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH UP TO FOUR Shield of stratus was still largely intact late this afternoon across the region, except near the NM state line where deeper mixing was eroding the west edge of these clouds. This process should enhance moist ascent and garner a more definitive round of freezing drizzle mainly after midnight. Freezing drizzle should mix with or change to very light snow/flurries by early Sunday morning as the top of the saturated layer cools to -12C or lower. Concern thereafter is how much winds will slacken New Years Eve night as surface ridging builds south.
Most of the mid slopes, Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide will see upper 50s to near 70 degrees through this afternoon, while areas along the lower Arkansas River Valley stay in the teens. Areas that have seen warmer temperatures are seeing gusty west winds. an upper disturbance is passing by to the northeast, but will send a cold front south across the Plains later this evening. In addition, areas of freezing fog and flurries will redevelop across much of the Plains tonight once winds transition easterly. Overnight lows will fall into the lower teens to single digits over the Plains. Areas of freezing fog and flurries will likely prevail through much of the day for portions of the Plains.
High pressure over southern California brought warm to record breaking high temperatures across the higher elevations of northern Arizona today. Lower elevations remained cooler under temperature inversions. The high pressure will weaken slightly on Sunday with highs lowering several degrees.
The coldest readings will be on the ridges, and most of the day on Sunday may not be below -15 wind chill, but it will go back below Sun night.
Reports through the evening indicate patchy freezing drizzle has developed slightly further northward through portions of NW AR and the previous advisory was expanded accordingly for possible slick spots on roadways.
Snow reports are starting to come in from the ridges that are busting through warning criteria now. Accumulation will likely become a bit more localized overnight, however some spots where bands persist may see substantial additional accumulation, especially in the Chestnut and Laurel Ridges. With while the lower elevations will probably decouple to a degree, the ridges should not. This will mean dangerously cold wind chills in the higher elevations.
After midnight, light precipitation will change to a combination of light freezing rain and sleet for GLH, GWO, and GTR near 07-09Z. As cold air advects further south in the morning hours of tomorrow, rain will switch over to freezing rain for JAN,HKS, and MEI near 15-18Z.
Main forecast story in the short term will lie with the bitterly cold arctic blast that will be settling into the region as a huge dome of high pressure moves slowly southeast through the Midwest and Plains states.
Arctic cold front will move across the area overnight/early Sunday morning. Dangerous wind chills for the higher elevations.
Winds should gradually decrease as the ridge broadens eastward into the overnight with cooler temps expected - mainly 3-7 deg below norms and even parts of the far north flirting with the 20 mark.
/issued 353 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017/ Drier air will continue to filter into South Florida tonight as high pressure will build into the region. High pressure will remain in place for Sunday and New Years Eve night which will continue the dry weather over South Florida. Daytime high temperatures will range across the lower to mid 70s and these temperatures will drop through the upper 50s and 60s during the evening hours of New Years Eve.
524 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a short wave trough over the Northern Rockies. The upper level flow will remain northwest as ridging remains anchored over the Rockies.
High pressure remains in control the next several days with mild temperatures, light winds, and periods of high clouds.
/issued 537 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017/ MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will continue through at least the first half of the pd, with patchy drizzle areawide and possibly freezing drizzle at KELD/KMLU after midnight. Freezing line currently from Durant Oklahoma to near Fort Smith Arkansas. Low-level moisture ascent from a trough in the Gulf of Mexico over shallow cold airmass will allow for continued chances for drizzle and light rain tonight. As temperatures fall below freezing north of I-20, precipitation to change over to a mixed bag of sleet and freezing rain. Through mid-morning, a slight chance for freezing rain and sleet can be expected across Monroe and Ruston and points north. Temperatures on Sunday night to fall into the teens across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas while the remainder of the ArkLaTex falls to the lower 20s.
508 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Canadian high pressure across the region will be reinforced behind a dry cold front tonight. A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. A dry cold front will shift south through the forecast area tonight, shifting winds from SW to NE, with colder and drier air filtering in behind it. Some increase in moisture may occur Sunday and Sunday night with a weak inverted trough lingering in the wake of the cold front.
Cold front and associated upper trough did break the inversion in most areas today. A new inversion will begin in the valleys Sunday and last through the coming week as high pressure aloft stays over the western U.
Freezing fog and freezing drizzle will continue to slowly spread south, and by 21Z tomorrow, the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals will be at risk for freezing precipitation. /issued 305 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Conditions are becoming worse across the Big Country as freezing drizzle covers much of this area. Going with a Winter Weather Advisory across the Big Country, Concho Valley and Coleman and Brown counties until Noon Sunday for mainly freezing drizzle and some ice accumulations. However, models do hint at another band of possible freezing/frozen precipitation overnight across the I-10 corridor. Kept 20 percent pops for far southern areas overnight Sunday, with some ice pellets/freezing rain briefly.
421 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 A weak area of low pressure continues to work its way up the Texas coast this evening spawning scattered showers across the region as it does so. The low is progged to track just south of the Louisiana coastline overnight before pushing off to the east Sunday. However, any standing water on area roadways Sunday evening will freeze resulting in the potential for slick spots especially on elevated roads and bridges.
822 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 High pressure will build over the region from the northwest tonight and Sunday with reinforcing cool air advecting across west central and southwest Florida with skies becoming mostly clear.
Made some slight adjustments to the weather forecast: removed freezing drizzle across central/northern Oklahoma, and increased the strength of the wording of freezing drizzle across the Red River region. All precipitation is too light to show up on radar, but various reports suggest the freezing drizzle/snow line is currently in southern Oklahoma. It doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause serious travel problems. The first will be the potential for freezing drizzle mainly this evening and especially overnight. It appears the main precipitation type will be freezing drizzle with a possible change to snow by early Sunday morning.
359 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2017 Temperatures continue to be the biggest challenge with the forecast as some snow covered valleys remain underneath strong inversions, while upper level winds increase, either causing inversions in some valleys to strengthen resulting in colder temps or break resulting in warmer temps. This disturbance moves out by sunrise Sunday morning, with a 80 to 100 kt jet overhead helping to push this system quickly east and keep the higher peaks blowing through Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow remains on Sunday with high pressure building to our west, with cooler temps thanks to the passing disturbance and high clouds remaining. A dry yet dirty northwest flow will remain in place for the first half of the work week, thanks to high pressure to the west.
/issued 333 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/ It's a cold, blustery morning across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas in the wake of a very strong cold front that moved through the region yesterday afternoon/evening. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds this morning will result in wind chill values in the single digits and teens across most of the area, and wind chills in the single digits below zero possible across the higher terrain. However, slippery conditions are possible to the south, especially along I-10 from the split to east of Fort Stockton, so those traveling this morning will need to exercise caution, especially on bridges and overpasses.