Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A large plume of moisture ahead of a broadscale trough is currently bringing rain and high elevation snow to portions of southwest Montana this morning. As this trough progresses eastward today expect rain and snow above 6000 to 7000 feet for much of western and southern Montana. Tonight into Friday morning will see the biggest impacts as the mentioned trough forms into a large upper level low. The upper low that develops quickly dissolves Friday night. Areas with advisories will generally see 1 to 4 inches, with 4 to 10 inches possible in the highest terrain of these zones. Some areas will see their first freezing temperatures since this spring.
932 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and the weekend, as high pressure will remain in place across the region.
The cold front that moved through last night, then stalled in central Kansas yesterday, is expected to move north as a warm front and weaken this morning. Starting late Friday afternoon and into Friday night, the cold front continues to be to the northwest of the area, but the upper level trough in the Rockies starts to send out some waves into the plains.
/issued 411 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ An upper level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will continue digging south today, eventually cutting off into a deep low pressure system over the desert southwest this weekend. This trough will pull low level moisture back across the entire CWA lowering temperatures a few degrees from yesterday.
Turning warmer and drier this weekend. A winter like trough will continue dropping south into northern California Today. Trough will shift east into northern Nevada with cut-off low developing.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ The pattern over Southeast Texas early this morning consisted of an upper low pressure trough that extended from the Mid Atlantic coast through Louisiana into our area. An upper level high pressure ridge was across North and Central Texas and bordered the northern and western portions of the forecast area.
A cold upper trough will move slowly into Utah today.
High pressure aloft will remain anchored from the Great Lakes region southwestward through the Southern Plains during the short term forecast period.
Latest satellite imagery and rap analysis showed the region under an upper ridge which extended through the Lower Mississippi Valley as well as under a shear axis over the southern areas which extended from an upper trough over the eastern seaboard. Left afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Warm and humid conditions will continue across the forecast area today as high pressure at the surface strengthens a bit from the northeast into the region. Aloft, the forecast area will be fixed between high pressure wedging southwest from the Mid- Mississippi River Valley through the Mid-South region, and increased troughing from the East Coast, southwest into the Deep South. With dew points remaining in the low and middle 70s, afternoon heat indices will hover around the century mark across much of the area.
Weak upper troughing will be over the area through Friday night supporting chances of scattered thunderstorms.
Similiar to yesterday, the highest rain chances (20-30 percent) POPs will remain south of the I-4 corridor over southwest Florida. High pressure remains the dominant weather feature over the region which will produce pleasant boating conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Once the low moves east of the area winds will gain more of a northerly component and the boundary should sag into south central Illinois overnight.
Today and tonight: A closed low will remain nearly stationary over the Mantioba-Ontario border through this time period. Along and ahead of the trough, deep layer system forcing is expected to increase as the moisture increases, which points to an increasing chance for rain showers. Temperatures are a bit tricky today as the high temperature will be dependent upon how quickly the cloud cover moves into the area. Either way, temperatures look to be warmer than they have been over the past few days and generally above normal.
High pressure building into the region will bring dry and warmer temperatures through Thursday.
Currently, high pressure is centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico with a nearly stationary boundary extending from northern Kentucky across northern Missouri and into southeast Colorado. By tonight, the boundary will start to push south as a cold front. Temperatures will remain mild with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 60s. The cold front will continue to move south on Thursday which will mean a little better chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday as we will see a few more clouds. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower 80s over most of the forecast area. By Thursday night, the cold front will reach the forecast area making this period the most likely for thunderstorms across the region.
Models show a cold front pushing into northern Colorado through sunrise with northerly winds developing across areas to the east of the Laramie Range. Could see some patchy fog develop by late tonight over the Cheyenne Ridge and southern Laramie Range. Heights begin to rise on Thursday as the upper ridge builds into Wyoming.
Rain chances will be limited to areas near and east of the Colorado River Valley today with dry and warmer weather returning on Thursday and continuing through the weekend.
700 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night as a stationary front remains to the north.
Dry conditions continue through tonight as deep layer ridging remains over the region. Highs today range from near 90 inland to the lower/mid 80s at the coast. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 50s inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast.
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an embedded short wave rounding the base of the main upper level low pressure center. The upper low will move slowly eastward during the day on Thursday along the KS/OK border with a surface front sinking southward across Kansas.
With high pressure centered over the area it will be another clear and warm day. Rain is not expected and high temperatures will be in the lower 90s away from the coast.
Isolated to scattered convection may develop from eastern Kansas into central Missouri this morning within warm air/moisture advection regime as the low level jet veers. The coverage of convection today is expected to remain isolated to scattered as our region remains under the influence of the departing upper level ridging and primary forcing mechanisms located to our north and west. Additional activity will form across the southern Plains in advance of the approaching upper low. Expect a greater coverage of showers and storms area wide Thursday and Thursday night as the upper low lifts northeast across the Plains and a cold front sags southeastward into the Ozarks region.
A moderate to strong Delta Breeze is underway as the upper ridge has begun shifting east and the marine layer is deepening along the coast. Current temperatures are a little milder compared to 24 hours ago across most of the region with the exception of areas influenced by the Delta Breeze where it is slightly cooler from the Delta into the Sacramento region. Around 5-15 degrees of cooling is expected across interior NorCal today as onshore flow spreads inland and some synoptic cooling takes effect with the approach of the offshore trough.
At the surface, a warm front will begin to lift northward from northern Missouri this evening. Main concern will be hail with a freezing level between 11000 and 12000 feet.
At this point anticipating highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s through the Chamberlain/Huron/Brookings/Marshall corridor where there is more chance of breaks in the clouds, while to the south of this area highs will probably only make it into the lower 60s. With winds becoming light it will be a cooler night with lows in the 40s across the entire area. Cooler and drier air will settle into the area on Thursday providing a sunny day with north winds about 10 to 15 mph.
The latest obs seem to indicate that the fog is occurring along ridges and where precipitation fell during the day into early this evening. The upper levels through the period will feature a stout ridge over the Front Range in the west slowly shifting east and reestablishing over the Appalachians by the end of the extended. Near the surface, the main feature appears to be a warm front setting up over the OH Valley across northern KY.
513 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 (Today and Tonight) A vigorous upper low is currently over eastern Arizona early this morning per latest Sat water vapor imagery. The low will lift northeast across New Mexico today and into the northern Texas Panhandle by daybreak Thursday. As the upper low lifts northeast, height falls and associated large scale ascent will spread east across west Texas this evening, along with increasing winds aloft associated with a 110 knot jet streak.
400 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 A mid/upper level ridge is moving overhead through the short-term, eventually getting undercut by an approaching trough from the west.
The resulting heating should allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 60s before rain arrives in the afternoon. A weak cold front will edge into north central WI overnight. On Thursday, the remnants of the weak cold front or an inverted surface trof will linger across the forecast area. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures should rise into the lower to middle 60s.
Otherwise precip coverage is likely to gradually increase Thurs morning as the upper low approaches. The most widespread storm coverage will develop early Thurs afternoon and spread eastward through western AR during the evening hours along the advancing cold front.
A large cool high pressure system north of this front was centered over central Canada. The cold front is forecast to continue moving south into South Dakota later this morning. Winds should be mainly northerly with the cooler air filtering in. The high pressure center is forecast to move southeast towards the Red River Valley of Manitoba. Tonight the high continues moving southeast into the ND/MN border area. A cool night for eastern North Dakota with lows in the 30s, while western ND should see temperatures in the lower 40s for overnight lows. A large upper level low off the west coast Thursday continues to deepen and builds an upper level ridge over the Rockies.
606 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Upper level low pressure will remain across the region into Thursday with cool showery conditions.
/issued 245 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017/ An upper trough is over southern Arizona and New Mexico with plenty of lift and moisture across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The upper trough moves east today and will become centered over New Mexico by this evening. This evening as the dryline sharpens and retreats westward a little, models show storms developing across the Lower Trans Pecos. The upper trough becomes centered over northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas on Thursday. A cold front associated with the upper trough will move into the area on Thursday.
/26/ Today and Tonight: Deep layered ridge remains over the forecast area this morning and continues to keep the column warm and dry. Also, upper level flow from the SW ahead of an approaching closed low crossing the Plains will pull upper level moisture into the region from the Western Gulf.
Instability will be minimal on Thursday with cool, cloudy conditions, so wind and hail will not be an issue, but given the proximity of the upper closed low there may be a low risk for a brief, weak tornado or two.
Upper low will move across northern New Mexico during the day and into the evening. Not much instability north of the upper low so threat for severe storms is low. Upper low slowly moves eastward with precipitation wrapping around the west side of the low Thursday morning.
An upper-level composite analysis indicates 24-hour geopotential height rises over the region, consistent with a building deep-layer ridge. Cloudiness and storms flank the large-scale ridge, centered across portions of the Great Plains and North Carolina.
556 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Current Water Vapor imagery/RAP 500mb analysis showing a mid-level trough moving across WI while radar showing associated showers extending from northeast WI through southwest WI/northeast IA. This is due to fairly steep lower level lapse rates as another mid-level trough swings through the area.
401 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night as a stationary front remains to the north.
106 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will push slowly east tonight and Wednesday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by at least Thursday afternoon as a cold front begins to push across western and northern Oklahoma.
602 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend.
Another tranquil night for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure continues to build over the southeast. Another very warm and tranquil day is xpcted on Wed, as the upper ridge axis becomes more centered across the cntrl Gulf states. Cloud cover though will begin to spread back into the mid TN Valley during the day Thu, as the upper ridge pattern moves e of the region while the flow regime turns more toward the sw. Rainfall will then be spreading back into the area from the w overnight Thu/into early Fri, with the latest model suites continuing to hint at an upper trough axis and sfc wave moving ewd out of the mid/srn Plains states. Attendant cold front looks to translate ewd across the region Fri into Fri evening, before move e of the area by early Sat.
245 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper trough is over southern Arizona and New Mexico with plenty of lift and moisture across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The upper trough moves east today and will become centered over New Mexico by this evening. This evening as the dryline sharpens and retreats westward a little, models show storms developing across the Lower Trans Pecos. The upper trough becomes centered over northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas on Thursday. A cold front associated with the upper trough will move into the area on Thursday.
650 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Upper level low pressure will remain across the region into Thursday with cool showery conditions.
Even with the clear skies though temps should stay up compared to last couple nights as slightly higher dwpnts advect in and light sw winds are expected ahead of low pressure trough moving in to northwest Ontario to the northern Plains.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the Mississippi Valley with a low over AZ. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from north central NM to the Big Bend region. The upper low in the southwest will eject across the Panhandle into the Central Plains during this period.
239 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017 Current surface map shows axis of high pressure across the western Dakotas. Rain ends this morning across south central South Dakota as upper trof moves east of the forecast area.
Main short-term weather player is the sfc warm front currently draped across central IL into southern IN and paralleling the Ohio River where it separates Ohio from northern/eastern Kentucky.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s at Silver Bay, to the low to mid 50s in the Brainerd Lakes. A slow moving cold front will continue to move southward across the Northland today and tonight. A secondary cold front will move south across the International border today and tonight, allowing a bit more cloud cover across the north this afternoon as well. On Thursday, we are expecting another quiet day, as high pressure builds into the Northland. Much of the forecast is fairly quiet, with a continuation of the dry weather and near to warmer than normal weather through the weekend.
/issued 400 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/ As several lobes of energy rotate around the large upper low currently over Arizona and Sonora, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across central/western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas.
451 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 A warm front will remain draped across our far NE CWA throughout the day, stalled in place due to a blocky pattern aloft. The proximity of the low to the region may lead to some isolated to scattered showers across more of the CWA late tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances are then expected to continue an increasing trend into the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes farther south into our region. Cloud cover spreading across the CWA overnight will keep temps fairly mild and uniform overnight as well, in the low 60s. An upper level blocking pattern will be breaking down at the start of the period, with a trough progressing east into our area as a ridge weakens and gets suppressed to the south.
The HRRR showed a mini trough in the 500 mb height earlier that coincided well with the convection initiation around 07Z. The cold front that follows will make for another cool day or two, as a 1017mb high settles over AR which will mainly be noticed in the mornings.
Another sunny day in store for today with temperatures running about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Starting Thursday, the ridge axis will move off to our east and will allow thunderstorms to develop across western Montana and central Idaho during the afternoon.
Skies will turn partly cloudy today as a low pressure system moves east. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Our old friend the cutoff low pressure system now in Arizona will weaken as it moves east today. There is low level moisture in the lower desert acting much like a deep marine layer over there.
However the more numerous showers are relegated to the higher terrain area of NM/CO/TX and OK panhandles. The upper low now over southern Arizona will lift into the southern High Plains Wednesday night. This may relegates most of the area to the 60s on Thursday at most, or even cooler 50s following the much cooler NAM and ECMWF.
Stratus has developed over southern Canada with the cooler air and that will push south into our northern counties this morning. The clouds will dissipate this evening and with high pressure building into the area, winds will become light and variable overnight.
The CWA will remain somewhat shielded by a retreating ridge over the Gulf, with breezy southeast winds across the area as 1020 mb Gulf high pressure interacts with upstream pressure falls associated with the advancing upper low. Temperatures will remain near to above normal, especially at night when elevated dew points prop up overnight low temperatures in the lower to even mid 70s.
High temperatures will range from the lower 70s far north around Galesburg and Lacon. to the lower to middle 80s across the S/SE. Cold front will drop southeastward out of the Northern Plains later today, increasing areal coverage of storms across the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon into the evening. Cold front will settle southward through central Illinois on Thursday, resulting in continued rain chances through the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson today as the unseasonably strong low pressure system for May exits the region. Dry conditions with much warmer temperatures will then prevail Thursday into this weekend. Center of the upper low, per satellite imagery this morning, was over east central Arizona. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will mostly be east of Tucson today as the upper low moves into New Mexico.
413 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows the circulation of a closed low just south southwest of the Four Corners region and a ridge downstream extending from the western Gulf Coast to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a short wave trough in the Central High Plains is lifting northeastward wherein large scale forcing for ascent from the wave coupled with low-level warm advection across NEB is helping sustain convection in the region. Three hour precip totals across western NEB as of 3 AM CDT showed the highest reading at KLBF, 0. Upper low will be accelerating eastward across southern KS Thursday.
but the only feature of interest to the fcst area (FA) thru tonight is the slow-moving cut-off low over AZ/NM. This low will progress NE across NM thru midnight and will be located over the OK Panhandle by 12Z/Thu as depicted by the multi-model consensus.
A large area of high pressure will continue to bring dry conditions to South Florida for tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 80s across the East Coast Metro areas to the lower 90s across the interior. /issued 344 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017/ A large area of high pressure will continue to remain in place over the region and it will keep dry conditions over South Florida through the end of the work week. The sky will be mostly sunny each day with high temperatures in the mid 80s over the metro areas and up to the lower 90s across interior sections.
304 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 The nearly vertically stacked upper low situated over southeast Arizona and northern Mexico has moved quite little in the past 24 hours, much less progressive than the numerical models were indicating for today.
A front will meander across central Indiana into Thursday, then an area of low pressure will move through and drag the front south.
A back door cold front sits over Northeast Montana early this morning. Upper ridge builds into Montana today and moves into Eastern Montana on Thursday. This will bring dry and warmer weather into the area on Thursday.
Initially most of our forcing will be in association with the sfc front and overrunning warm moist air north of this front especially during the overnight hours tonight and Wednesday night when the low level jet strength is maximized. The second important feature is a big cut off upper area of low pressure over the desert southwest that will track into the southern high plains by Wednesday night. The upper low should kick off some thunderstorms over eastern Colorado this evening that will track northeast and could move into our western forecast area late tonight primarily after midnight. Instability lessens north of the front and the highest likelihood of severe weather will be near the Nebraska/Kansas border southward into north central Kansas. The upper storm system will track off the high plains and across Kansas.
An upper level ridge axis that passed over the area Tue night will give way to an incoming trough over the short term. The trough is well off the coast at this time, but will near the coast Thu afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will bring warmer and eventually more moist air into the region. We will see high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in most of the lower elevations today, increasing to mid 80s tomorrow.
405 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure northeast of the local area will retreat across eastern Canada.
150 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 A ridge of high pressure will provide for a welcome dry period of sun today and at least part of Thursday.
Depending on how fast the clouds can clear out, high temperatures will be a bit warmer today than yesterday with upper 70s near the TX/NM state line to upper 80s over the Rolling Plains. The upper-level low will continue to slowly move northeast through Thursday which will help to push a cold front southward during the day Thursday.
High pressure aloft will keep the area mostly clear with warming temperatures into Thursday. An increasingly moist and unstable southwest flow aloft will move into the area ahead of an approaching Pacific low pressure system, and an associated Pacific cold front will move into the northern Rockies.
636 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure northeast of the local area will retreat across eastern Canada.
A weak cool front stretched from the low center near Dryden, ON south to just east of International Falls then arcing northwest toward Cavalier, ND.