Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
According to radar and satellite trends this should continue into much of the afternoon as a low level boundary and areas of low pressure move across western and central IN. Broad cyclonic flow around an upper level low in east central MO will keep the potential for diurnal showers and isolated t-storms in much of central IL through the afternoon. Aloft, there is a similar setup to yesterday afternoon with relatively cold temperatures aloft with the low. Deep moisture still available under the upper low today will result in another showery day. and overnight lows will be limited to the lower 50s/upper 40s as the clouds slowly recede later Thursday morning. Skies clearing early Thursday will result in a little warmer temperatures for Central IL. Dry through Thursday night, although the models are still having some issue with the weak ridge aloft.
These showers are the result of upper low pressure over southern Missouri poised to move across northeast Arkansas.
northeast to southwest oriented ridge axis moves into the area in between low pressure systems over Kentucky and north of Montana. 850mb temperatures warm about 13F (east) to 24F (west) compared to yesterday and would support highs in the low to mid 80s. Have blended the two with advertised highs in the low 70s east to around 80 in parts of Yuma county Colorado.
Some breaks are possible later tonight into Thursday across south central Wisconsin, as the low levels finally try to start drying out in that area. After seasonable lows in the upper 40s tonight, warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday. Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 are forecast inland, with north northeast winds keeping lakeshore areas cooler. Temperatures may remain cooler if clouds linger longer than expected across south central Wisconsin.
High pressure was centered off to our West in Texas this morning but has pretty much just melted into the Gulf during this afternoon. So it has been cooler in May.
With the loss of daytime heating and the low pulling away from the area any lingering shower activity should quickly dissipate late this afternoon and early evening after sunset. The light to calm winds combined with clearing skies and highly anamolous low 500mb heights will set the stage for near record low temperatures tonight under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions with a much cooler and drier airmass in place.
RAP analysis this morning shows the low responsible for our rain and cool weather the past few days moving south through Iowa. Over the Desert Southwest, a ridge is building, which we will experience the eastern edge of today. Temperatures will be markedly warmer today, but that will be nothing compared to Thursday when southwest flow both at the surface and aloft advects copious amounts of hot, dry air.
Clearing skies tonight should allow for good radiative conditions, however, the increasing gradient and subsequent increasing southerly winds will keep temperatures warmer across central SD. A cold front will move in central SD Thursday morning but gets hung up near the James River during the daytime. With breezy south southwest winds ahead of the front and west to northwest winds behind the front, good mixing will allow high temperatures to reach the low to mid 70s. Moisture looks quite poor in the low and mid levels, however could see some isolated elevated showers pop up ahead of the front in east central SD and southwest MN. Broad trough over south central Canada will turn upper level flow to the west or southwest heading into the weekend, bringing more unsettled weather to the northern Plains.
An upper level trough will further deepen as it moves into our area tonight sending a surface cold front through and scouring out the deep layer moisture that has been in place the past several days. Expect a breezy night as cooler and drier air filters in behind the front.
Temps will be cooler over the southeast due to the morning clouds but CONSSHORT for NW zones are also cooler than prev forecast. Upper level ridge axis extended from southern MAN to WY. Satellite loop indicated cirrus was spilling over the ridge and over the forecast area. Water vapor loop indicated upper level ow pressure system was located over southern BC and southern ALTA with upper level jet rounding the base of the trough. Upper trough will move into southern SASK Wed night an rotate over southern SASK and southern MAN through 12Z Sat. Upper level low will send a cold front across the area Thu and produce showers. During the holiday weekend, the models are in good agreement that a strong mature low pressure system over Manitoba slowly meanders eastward toward the Great Lakes region.
328 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 As of 20Z the cold front is exiting the Middle TN Eastern Plateau counties.
253 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Quiet and mostly dry conditions prevail as an upper ridge builds in over the area. Mostly cloudy skies in combination with breezy southerly winds ahead of the front, will bring warmer and near seasonal temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Relatively fast flow aloft will provide around 25 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear so could see a couple of strong storms with small hail given freezing levels around 6200 ft.
Latest model data shows that as closed upper low dives south southeastward, from Missouri into western Tennessee, area of deepest moisture lifts north northeastward. Presence of closed upper low in our vicinity will enhance the chance for at least small hail with just about any of the sturdier thunderstorms that develop today, with the potential for large hail in a few of them (especially over the east). The best chance for thunderstorms will be over eastern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front.
326 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Low level cyclonic flow around low pressure in central KY will keep showers and a few t-storms in eastern Illinois the rest of the evening.
Cold front now draped over the last eastern tier of counties. Occasional winds on the order of 40 mph gusting to 50 mph - maybe a bit higher - are the highest we have been able to realize today. As the High Wind Warning comes to an end, a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed, possibly for quite a while.
Some clearing has occurred across the area, which may help to create some additional instablity between the 20-23z time period ahead of the surface cold front currently moving into the Cumberland Plateau. Had to keep a few pops around across the northeastern corner of the viewing area on Thursday night as the deep upper low edges very slowly east toward the northeastern states.
246 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Scattered showers over west and central MO associated a low pressure system over SE MO will persist through sunset. Cloudy skies and northerly winds will once again keep the high temperatures well below normal as this trend changes going into Thursday. The lowest visibilities look to be located near the calm winds over the central portion of our CWA. Winds will shift to the south with warm air advection pushing into the area along a weak ridge building into the area. The ridging will quickly move east with a zonal upper level pattern over the southern Rockies initiates a more active pattern for the weekend.
The best chance for thunderstorms will be over eastern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front.
245 PM MST Wed May 24 2017 The high pressure system over the region that produced above normal afternoon temperatures will weaken tonight as several weather systems move into the western states.
The upper level trough will continue progressing further east, with upper level riding building over the state through the period. Thursday will be breezy as low pressure will develop over the Texas Panhandle, strengthening onshore flow.
328 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper level low centered over southern Missouri this afternoon will move east through Thursday morning with waning influence on our weather.
108 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 WV imagery this morning showing an upper level closed low over the mid MS vly getting kicked eastward in response to a well amplified ridge extending from the from Great Basin into central Canada building into the Plains.
Aloft, upper level ridging will build across the Dakotas allowing a warmer air mass to move into the region. Looking at mainly shower chances as the trough pushes through, and will see best chances across western into central SD this evening.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of the afternoon into this evening as the 500mb ridge across the Rockies and the 500mb trough across east-central United States continue to provide subsidence across the state. The pressure gradient will strengthen on Thursday as low pressure across west Texas interacts with high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico.
An area of low pressure will meander across the region through Thursday.
1210 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 An upper low centered over south central IA will move sse through MO today.
Concern was greater for the western area of storms associated with the system's cold front due to a clear patch in the clouds allowing for rapid destabilization through the Cumberland Valley and across much of the JKL CWA in the wake of the first batch of showers - justifying the watch issuance. The models are in good agreement aloft swinging the closed low through the Ohio Valley with the best energy focused well to the south of the state tonight though some weaker amounts will swing through the east this evening and overnight wrapping around to the north through dawn Thursday.
231 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Despite the approach of the sharper lapse rates with the upper low , CAPE (per NAM BUFR Sounding data) suggest less than 250 j2/kg2 will be available for any thunderstorm development, with equilibrium level near 13-14kft MSL. The NAM-WRF model suite appears to have a generally good handle on the evolution and transformation of the closed low moving south through into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the generation of a secondary low in southern Indiana this evening overnight.
Lee troughing will increase the wind speeds, and gusty south winds will prevail throughout the day Thursday, steadily returning Gulf moisture to the region.
220 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 A strengthening upper level low pressure center west of the Ohio Valley will dig south of the area and translate its energy along the southern Ohio/Indiana border tonight, sparking a new circulation.
221 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers and storms through Thursday evening. Upper low continues to dig into the Mid Mississippi Valley with energy rotating into the CWA in the cyclonic flow. As the low continues to rotate into the northeast, additional embedded waves will be the source of forcing in the cold pool aloft heading into Thursday. Upper low will be overhead on Thursday with scattered showers expected.
240 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Areas of showers and storms will continue to move across the region this afternoon through the overnight period as a deep low pressure system tracks across the region.
118 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 An active weather pattern with cool air and periods of widespread rain is expected to last through the weekend as low pressure remains in place across the Ohio Valley. Warmer air and higher humidity are expected to return for the Memorial Day weekend. Temperature in the low-mid 60s will climb slowly for the remainder of the day as cloud cover thickens in advance of an upper low approaching from the Plains. Uniform minima in the mid-50s will be common in most areas, with slightly-cooler overnight temps in the mountains. Widespread morning rain will subside early in the day as a closed upper low deepens in the Ohio Valley and a dry slot asserts itself.
Scattered showers started developing towards midday over the eastern 2/3 of the CWA and this trend will continue through the remainder of the afternoon as the low continues to slide southeast.
Warmer air and higher humidity are expected to return for the Memorial Day weekend. Temperature in the low-mid 60s in s-central PA, where rain limited diurnal temperature increase, will climb slowly for the remainder of the day as cloud cover thickens in advance of an upper low approaching from the Plains. Uniform minima in the mid-50s will be common in most areas, with slightly-cooler overnight temps in the mountains. Hi-res models do depict increasing wind speed in the ridges in the 0000-0600 UTC timeframe, often indicative of a mountain wave. Widespread morning rain will subside early in the day as a closed upper low deepens in the Ohio Valley and a dry slot asserts itself.
/issued 323 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Quieter, dry, and warmer weather over the next 24 hours. Dry northwest flow aloft will remain over the area through the next 24 hours, but will start to transition into upper level ridging by Thursday morning. Not only will we be dry, very few clouds Temperatures today will warm back into the 80s, and lows tonight will be much warmer than upper 50s to lower 60s.
325 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Temps across the Midsouth were running 15 to 20 degrees below normal this afternoon, courtesy of an upper level low centered over MO. Given sufficiently strong updrafts, small hail will be possible given freezing levels near 7 KFT AGL. The upper low will track southeast through the Midsouth during the evening, with gradually shrinking shower coverage mainly south of/ahead of the upper low center. By sunrise Thursday, the upper low will have departed with clouds likely cleared except near the TN River. Thursday will begin the warming trend, as upper level ridging builds in.
An upper level low was centered in southern Iowa, with another upper low upstream in southern British Columbia. An upper level low in southern British Columbia will track east into southwestern Saskatchewan by early this evening. This will drive a cold front through eastern Montana this afternoon. Ahead of this, a transitory ridge will move east across the Northern and Central Plains today. For tonight, the upper low will slow and remain across southern Saskatchewan, with the cold front pushing into the northwest Sandhills late tonight. As the upper trough digs south across Wyoming and the western Dakotas, A few showers or thunderstorms are possible northwest of the forecast area.
Initial Gulf moisture return is expected Thursday ahead of upper troughing over the western CONUS.
Gilchrist Previous short term discussion: Upper low beginning to move from British Columbia into southern Alberta early this morning. As the low pushes toward Saskatchewan today, a cold front will march across the state. Timing of front keeps the strongest winds over the northwest zones so area of the High Wind Warning still on track. Winds decouple some tonight but expected to increase again on Thursday as the low moves toward Manitoba. An upper low situated over southern Saskatchewan Thursday night will shift southeast toward the Upper Midwest over the weekend. As the closed low tracks by the area expect isolated to widely scattered chances for showers for portions of the CWA over the weekend. Low pressure will push further downstream of the region in the upcoming week as an upper ridge becomes established over Montana.
18Z surface data has a cold front from lower Michigan into southeast Kansas while high pressure was over the Plains. Quiet and pleasant conditions will be seen from late this afternoon through Wednesday as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the Atlantic late tonight, especially after midnight, as the trough over the Bahamas approaches South Florida. Relatively dry conditions late this afternoon across South Florida as the trough of low pressure remains to our east over the western Bahamas. The trough will slowly make its way towards South Florida tonight, ushering in a wet and stormy period which will likely last through the end of the week (and maybe beyond).
Clouds will dissipate this evening with high pressure bringing VRB winds overnight through mid morning Wednesday. /issued 420 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500mb ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb inverted trough across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will provide a northeast flow aloft across the lower Texas coast tonight into Wednesday. The remnants of Harvey will move into the Bay of Campeche tonight and possibly redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Will likely see isolated to scattered convection continue to develop offshore the lower Texas coast tonight and some of these showers will move across the coastal sections of the CWA late tonight into Wed morning.
820 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Cold front extending from srn Creek County into Benton County will continue to move southward overnight.
/Issued 335 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ We've already got storms develop across the southern Texas Panhandles along a southward moving cold front. This will allow storms to develop and move south- southeast along the higher terrain in SE Colorado and NE New Mexico Wednesday evening.
/issued 356 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Storms are increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon along the southward moving cold front extending from south of Clovis to near Childress.
Current surface analysis places high pressure over the northern and central plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with trough over the midwest. high meanders off to the east with trough/low developing and deepening to the east of the Rockies, resulting in winds shifting south/southeasterly.
A cold front will exit central Indiana this afternoon and evening. High pressure over the northern plains is expected to build across the region tonight and linger across the area through the weekend.
1035 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A strong cold front will move through the region overnight. Much cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week into the weekend. The main windshift line associated with the cold front is just now entering NW PA. The RAP anal shows the frontal trough jumping out to the east over central PA. It will also be significantly cooler.
1034 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Currently - A lower level trough is working its way very slowly westward across the Florida Peninsula. 4 inches) arriving with the trough, along with ample instability is allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to erupt along any cloud line and outflow boundary. Short Term Update - The presence of the trough will keep winds generally light and variable through the overnight period. The trough will maintain a wetter weather pattern across the general area. A trough across Florida and the Keys has resulted in winds turning light and variable.
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Cooler and drier air will continue to filter southeast into our area tonight bringing some very pleasant weather to the region through the remainder of the work week. The combination of a clear sky and light wind should allow temperatures to drop into the low 50s north to the upper 50s south of I-70. High pressure will be centered to our west on Wednesday bringing plenty of sunshine to the area along with afternoon temperatures close to the 80 degree mark.
But first, we have to deal with a cold frontal passage and the storms developing ahead of it in a fairly humid airmass. Wednesday, high pressure will settle into the mid-MS valley.
900 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 The cold front was making slow progress southeast, and was located near KFYV to near KBPK, with cooler and drier air and a northwest wind behind the front. Otherwise, lows tonight will be cooler north, with the 60s, while 70s central and south. A cold front will slowly sag southeast this evening and overnight, and develop scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A broad area of high pressure extended form Florida west into northern portions of Mexico. Further north: Low pressure was located over northern Ontario Canada with a trough of low pressure extending south into the lower Ohio valley. Further west, a ridge of high pressure was located from Utah north into southwestern Canada. Southwest of the ridge axis, low pressure was located off the coast of northern California. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Burwell Nebraska with southerly winds noted in the panhandle and western sandhills. For tonight: High pressure will build southeast into eastern Kansas overnight.
Nwly sfc flow and weak cold advection will continue tonight into Wed morning, while high pressure over the Great Plains will move to the Upper MS River Valley by late Wed. Cooler air will ooze down from the north, with 925 mb temperatures falling into the 10 to 12 degree range by Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise look for cooler temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
1227 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Much cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week into the weekend. There are a few speckles along the real cold front, but mainly north of the NY border. The main windshift line associated with the cold front is just now entering NW PA. The RAP analysis shows the frontal trough jumping out to the east over central PA. It will also be significantly cooler.
As this northern boundary advances southward this evening, winds should turn abruptly to the northwest and convective potential should diminish despite the synoptic cold front hanging back further to the north. /issued 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ A cold front will continue to push south through the Mid-South tonight. As a result, northeasterly surface winds will keep the drier air in place making conditions feel very pleasant with highs in the lower to mid 80s. A cold front will move through the region tonight.
A cold front will slowly sag southeast this evening and overnight, and develop scattered showers and thunderstorms.
542 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Updated aviation discussion A ridge will remain over the area tonight through Wed. A band of mid and high clouds with a bit of instability will accompany the trough. afternoon flow aloft will be sandwiched between an old open wave over CA/NV and the ridge that will have moved to SE NM and west TX.
A weak cold front move south into the area on Wednesday and will bring a chance for scattered convection to the terminals. The trailing cold front will begin to move south across the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma this afternoon and push into the northern Big Country later tonight. A weak upper level ridge, currently situated over the Big Bend region, will continue to slowly drift west allowing for weak northwest flow to develop across the area. With this weak northerly flow and the approaching cold front, expect thunderstorm development and coverage to increase into the evening hours across the Big Country. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with the increase in cloud coverage and with wind switching to the north behind the front.
1221 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front will move into our region late tonight and slowly exit off the Delmarva coast Wednesday afternoon.
6PM UPDATE: Upper level ridging is keeping most of Northeast Montana in the clear this evening. Proton Previous Discussion: Water vapor showing an upper ridge moving over the northern Rockies and drifting east, while a large cut-off low over the Gulf of alaska is pushing onshore near the Queen Charlotte Islands. These low pressure systems are having a little more strength as we are heading toward Fall and more moisture is flowing through the upper ridges as they are weakening a bit too. The clear skies this afternoon will remain mostly clear through Wednesday as the upper ridge drifts in our direction.
/Issued 820 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ Cold front extending from srn Creek County into Benton County will continue to move southward overnight.