Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ANYWAY, FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WARMER FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITES. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE DOME CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER KANSAS.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRAVERSING MINNESOTA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/WEST. THEY'LL START TO RELAX JUST A LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP. IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ULTIMATELY FROPA WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
/ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW AIDED BY WEST TEXAS MCV. MENTIONED UPPER LOW STILL PROGD TO LIFT OUT TOMORROW AND GIVE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
A northern branch upper level trough was moving across the eastern plains into to the Midwest. A closed upper low, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet was located in far west TX and southeast NM. The surface cold front has now pushed southeast of the CWA early this morning, and was located from western OK, northeast across southeast KS into central MO. The closed upper low over far west TX will fill as it lifts northeast into the southern TX PNHDL by 12Z TUE. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s.
RADAR SHOWS GENERALLY LESS THAN 50DBZ RETURNS ALL WITHIN THE SCOPE OF BELOW FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/WEST. THEY'LL START TO RELAX JUST A LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP. IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
305 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES (AS OF 2 PM) INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 (Tonight and Tuesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along and north of a cold front from Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood at 3 PM. With an upper low to the northwest in the South Plains, there is also a low potential for a land spout or brief tornado.
404 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ZCZC LAXWRKAFD 131946 TTAA00 KLAX DDHHMM 120 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
340 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE TIED TO A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER INDIANA WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE RIDGES BY TUESDAY MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE RIDGES UNTIL MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AND THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH POPS TODAY AS UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT THERE WITH UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH WHILE A POTENT MID LEVEL TROF IS LIFTING NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAL COVERAGE IS STARTING TO PICK UP AS LIFT GENERATED FROM THE MID LEVEL TROF OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS THROUGH. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY IS A BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC RIDGE. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE RATHER UNIFORM IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THRU TUE NGT. LIKELY KEEPING MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. BEACHLER 210 PM CDT A DEVELOPING 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. MVFR CEILINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SO TAFS REFLECT THE LOW END OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE AND MAY NEED AMENDING FOR HIGHER GUSTS IF THESE DO IN FACT BEGIN TO DOMINATE. APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GO ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
1212 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 CHALLENGES INCLUDE DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND WIND STRENGTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED. SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
346 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
An upper level low pressure system is currently located over northern Texas this afternoon and moving very slowly. Will go with a blend of the models for rain chances and QPF with the highest chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be over southeast Kansas and far southwestern Missouri on Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE REGION AS A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SHIFTS NORTH.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING AND SPREADING CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT USHERING IN SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
Moisture transport was interacting with a cold front and associated upper disturbance, forcing this band of rain to continue spreading across the Ozarks. Surface winds will switch to the north bringing cooler air to the Ozarks. Front has pushed through most of the CWA, but still have the closed upper level low to our southwest which was keeping light precipitation going across the far southern MO counties.
340 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 RH VALUES HAVE TANKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TEENS WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN GUSTY. NOT SO SURE THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL LAST MUCH LONGER. MODELS KEEP SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION FOR MID WEEK. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH THIS CWA BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL COL POINT/REGION WITH CLOSED LOW ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST. WARMER HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES. AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SINK SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
308 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING SEASON TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY THE ENCROACHING CIRRUS NOTED OVER KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WHILE THE LIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT EASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES DECOUPLING.
THE LOW IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINS ONCE AGAIN.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT FROM LAKE HURON INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARDS US AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO N GA TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
ANYWAY, FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WARMER FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITES. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE DOME CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS.
/ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NW AR WHILE MOIST AIR FLOWS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE H5 ANALYSIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
BRIEF SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS A FEW HOURS AGO. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW.
COLD AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH AN AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY SLIDING ACROSS NE MN AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AN ABUNDANT AMT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LAYER HAS INHIBITED THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND WITH ANY CONSISTENCY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE EAST AND NE INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALONG WITH A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MUCH MORE PLEASANT ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WHILE A COLD FRONT TRYS TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
135 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 TODAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BEHIND. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INITIALLY HANG UP IN THE RIDGES OF PA/MD/WV TUESDAY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MATURING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON GUSTY NW WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. UPSTREAM SHOWS DECENT RIDGING KEEPING AREA DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER ISSUE IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH BL DECOUPLING THAT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT THAT MAY ALLOW FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 TO SEE PATCHY FROST WITH MINS NEAR FREEZING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE COMES ONSHORE TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
224 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) A resurgence of rain is ongoing across southeast MO largely in part to a backing of the mid level flow, thereby stalling the southward push of moisture with the cold front and allowing what lift that has lingered to more effectively produce rain. Otherwise, at least ample high cloud areawide thru the night tonight will limit how much we cool, despite north and northeast winds for much of the night attempting to drop cooler air in. Tended to favor the lower MOS numbers for min temps in the north where drier air has already settled in, but preferred the higher MOS in the south where dry air will be slow to build.
The weather turns unsettled Monday night and Tuesday with a passing cold front producing showers and windy conditions.
653 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/WEST. THEY'LL START TO RELAX JUST A LITTLE TMRW PM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP. IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT IS THE PERIL OF TRANSLATING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MODIFYING THEM OVER A LAND MASS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS 00Z MONDAY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST U.
HIGHS WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH DRYING THE PRIMARY AIRMASS CHANGE. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
441 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
250 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY MOVED EAST OF I-35 TO NEAR EDGE OF CWA. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIG SWD ACROSS ROCKIES ON THURDAY. WITH A COLD FRONT RETURNING TO THE AREA. AND STG UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
What may keep us from more ideal radiational cooling is the high clouds spilling over the region from an upper-level disturbance over west Texas.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
405 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MID WEEK IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH. COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE AND IT RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO.
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHERE DEEPER AND RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL UNDERGO BROAD-SCALE LIFT DUE TO ENHANCED CURVATURE NORTHEAST OF 700 MB CLOSED LOW. WITH ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
244 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front departing the far SE KILX CWA, with showers lingering along and just behind the boundary. However, there are still a few differences with the disposition of this low later in the week. Main storm track will be along the Canadian border and upper Midwest, resulting in the low generally meandering northeast.
347 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 As Elsa continues up through the Carolinas today and tonight she'll drag the upper trough axis to the our east and spur a few showers and storms this morning and again this evening.
A strong ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature across the western U.
Southerly winds are expected through tomorrow as high pressure sits to the east and lee troughing to the west. Highs today look to reach into the low to mid 90s today with lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Although recent guidance from several of the convection- allowing models depicts dissipation of the current activity by 06Z, there is some chance that a few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop in the hours shortly before sunrise, as a subtle low-level wind convergence axis begins to shift eastward into the region in conjunction with a mid-level trough.
1125 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing, mainly along and southeast of the KS Turnpike corridor, in vicinity of a cold front oozing slowly south.
1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 A cold front is near the northwest corner of Arkansas and slowly moving southeast.
210 AM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge. The Tri- State area will be situated on the northeast periphery of the ridge -- in [varying degrees of] northwest flow aloft. With the Tri-State area situated on the northeast periphery of an amplifying ridge aloft.
Kept chance PoPs through the night as moist southerly flow persists ahead of a mid/upper trough crossing the Midwest and surface cold front gradually moving E/SE from the Great Lakes and MS Valley. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 87 71 88 / 40 20 70 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 86 70 86 / 50 30 50 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 85 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 68 85 66 83 / 70 50 50 20 50.
A surface cold front extended from lower Michigan southwest to north of St. An upper trough was just west of the area. Based on recent trends, believe that at least isolated convection will continue through the remainder of the predawn hours, especially with the upper trough and front nearby. Later during the day, as the cold front moves through the area, it will interact with unstable air to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
223 AM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 08z surface analysis had trough from central MT into northeast CO. 2KJ/kg MLCAPE pools along trough with 50kts 0-6km bulk shear.
1105 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Current scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon, most numerous along a weak cold front across portions of northern and central OK. Ridging will simultaneously build eastward in the mid to upper levels which will help suppress convective development during the day, with only some very slight chances lingering across southern Oklahoma.
The cold front extends through the forecast area and remains weak with only a few showers and storms along the leading edge which tend to be pulse type storms that only last on the order a 30 or so minutes. Weak shear and overall high freezing levels also support the main threat being a strong wind gust or two. Over the Desert Southwest, a semipermanent anticyclone and heat dome remain firmly in place with extreme heat over those areas.
Then, a cold front moves through the region later tonight into Thursday.
On Thursday, the upper level ridge across the Southwest will strengthen and expand into our region, bringing increased subsidence, warmer temperatures and decreasing rain chances (except in the southeastern counties where some shower/storms could occur due to an upper level disturbance moving across mainly South Texas).
Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows an upper low over the Puget Sound.
Cooler air and cu clouds have dominated the weather across the cwa this afternoon. Otherwise, the ops models and hi-res models all point to two short wave troughs coming around the upper ridge to our west, affecting our region through Thursday night. For tonight, indications are that short wave/waa lift over the cooler air and mid level instability will bring scattered showers and storms across the region later tonight into Thursday. The second stronger short wave trough will drop in from the northwest Thursday afternoon and night. This wave will be more significant as there will be higher surface dewpoints, warmer temperatures, deeper instability and stronger deep layer shear.
Visibility may still be a problem in spots, especially on ridges or in elevated locations through the early morning hours. This morning, subsidence behind Elsa as well as a deepening low pressure center over southern Texas has helped push the southerly flow south of our area, with slightly drier westerly flow over the Tennessee Valley.
1045 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Key Points: -Thunderstorms are expected to shift southeast of the area this evening as cold front moves through the area.
/issued 239 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/ Synoptically, the upper level high has remained parked in essentially the same position over the Desert Southwest as yesterday, with a modest upper trough currently pivoting through the Upper Midwest. Water vapor imagery suggests a decent fetch of midlevel moisture is in place over the CWA today as we remain between these features and a potent low off the lower TX coast. Despite our position under the eastern reaches of the upper ridge, the continued presence of low and midlevel moisture and a boundary dropping southward through the CWA has resulted in another day of scattered showers. Overnight into Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to flatten as an upper trough continues moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. In response, 500mb heights will rise locally as the ridge expands eastward.
1123 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Seasonably cooler but still humid weather is expected on Thursday with numerous showers and thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours. Focus shifts to heavy rain potential on Thursday as the approach of mid/upper trough through the Great Lakes combined with moist south/southwest flow ahead of TS Elsa continues to raise concerns about potential heavy rainfall on Thursday.
Southerly winds are expected through tomorrow as high pressure sits to the east and lee troughing to the west. Highs today look to reach into the low to mid 90s today with lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s. Dry conditions continue Friday with increased cloudiness ahead of a cold front.