Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 A fast moving upper level disturbance and Pacific cold front will continue to cross the region tonight through through early Wednesday morning, bringing with it breezy west to southwest winds and accumulating mountain snow.
433 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Expect dry weather this morning as high pressure remains in control. Satellite depicts cloud cover from the Plains continuing to move eastward into the region, as a mid- level ridge builds over the Mid-South. Some light rain will be possible late this evening into tomorrow morning as a broad trough and closed low moves eastward from the Plains later today. Highs today will still be on the cool side, with temperatures generally in the lower 40s. Temperatures in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel are still expected to be near freezing as showers make their way toward the area.
928 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
547 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low just off the coast of Georgia. A trough extended south of this feature to Cuba. West of this feature, a ridge of high pressure extended from the ArkLaTex north northeast into the western Great Lakes.
451 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level trough axis will move east of the area by early evening, with a weak cold front following behind the system tonight. Temperatures will be warmer today, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 60s. The weak cold front will move south across the area tonight, with light north winds prevailing in its wake.
The overnight lows tonight will be in the mid 40's to low 50's and daytime highs on Thursday will be back around average in the low to mid 70's. Strong high pressure ridges south-southwest along the eastern seaboard, over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Interaction between this high and an area of low pressure north of the Bahamas is producing gusty northerly winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure moves off the mid- Atlantic coast by Thursday evening which will bring the winds around to the east and will decrease below any SCA or SCEC level to close out the week.
clouds will slowly increase today and tonight as high pressure slides east of the region. Low pressure will begin to organize tonight across the central plains and move east on Thursday.
636 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Exiting high pressure will set the stage for southerly flow in the Ohio Valley to warm temperatures back to above normal for the foreseeable future.
340 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low just off the coast of Georgia. A trough extended south of this feature to Cuba. West of this feature, a ridge of high pressure extended from the ArkLaTex north northeast into the western Great Lakes.
But, eventually, the combination of clearing skies, high pressure building aloft and a little northerly flow will help clear things out by early afternoon. For the remainder of the forecast period, building high pressure will bring a warming trend and dry conditions through the upcoming weekend.
750 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 We issued a quick update this morning to add a mention of freezing precipitation in our eastern river valleys this morning as the frontal precipitation moves through. BT An upper trof will push a cold front through the area this morning. Downslope winds plus afternoon sun will allow temperatures to stay in the 40s this afternoon despite the cold front. Expect snow showers to develop over the higher terrain mainly in the afternoon hours, possibly drifting into the adjacent lower elevations.
919 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Exiting high pressure will set the stage for southerly flow in the Ohio Valley to warm temperatures back to above normal for the foreseeable future.
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
1018 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Arctic high pressure will remain across the eastern United States through Thursday.
/Issued 523 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/ Southwest winds at AMA and GUY will gradually become northerly by mid to late morning as a cold front moves through the area.
Widespread showers continue to move across the northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads region in strong warm air advection zone ahead of the short wave trough moving into the Texas Big Bend. Conditions will be improving from west to east by the afternoon as the short wave trough moves through the area and the warm air advection shifts to the east.
Some mid level dry air ahead of the main moisture may lead to some freezing drizzle mixing in at times, especially across east- central Wisconsin later this afternoon and early this evening. Some mid level dry air Thursday afternoon may cause some of the snow to mix in with drizzle or freezing drizzle across east-central Wisconsin.
1027 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure remains over the region through Thursday.
359 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure is situated east of the area.
An upper level trough moving through the northern Rockies will exit the area through this afternoon. High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area late in the week. With the passage of the cold front, some downslope winds may clear out the inversions and fog adjacent to the spine of Utah, but the MSLP gradient does not look like it will be strong enough for significant winds to clear out the inversions in the lower valleys of eastern Utah. High pressure will start to build back into the area tonight into tomorrow, leading to more stable conditions, with continued inversions likely in the eastern valleys.
A trough of low pressure arriving late in the weekend could bring light shower activity to parts of the area and breezy to windy conditions to much of the region. Cooler temperatures and breezy north winds are possible to begin the work week as a cold front rolls through the forecast area. High pressure will build in from the southwest today allowing for quiet, dry weather.
1055 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Arctic high pressure will remain across the eastern United States through Thursday.
/issued 451 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level trough axis will move east of the area by early evening, with a weak cold front following behind the system tonight. Temperatures will be warmer today, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 60s. The weak cold front will move south across the area tonight, with light north winds prevailing in its wake.
1257 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure remains over the region through Thursday.
210 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
Most areas in OK, except for extreme SE OK and east-central OK are above freezing at this time. Most of northwestern Arkansas is right at freezing if not just above as well. Ridgetop reports from NW AR are still reporting temps in the upper 20s with a wintry mix of sleet/snow still falling. The higher elevation of NW AR will likely aid in keeping wintry precipitation around much longer than areas lower in elevation. Freezing rain is still locked into the Arkansas river valley in the Fort Smith area. Freezing rain should continue for the next couple of hours until temperatures can finally reach above freezing. The higher elevations will likely hold onto wintry precipitation through the evening and overnight hours as this disturbance passes before temperatures can rise above freezing late tonight.
1051 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 Short wave trof is crossing the northern Rockies onto the Plains this morning with precipitation moving into northeastern WY and far western SD.
151 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 The upper trough responsible for the cool, breezy, and rainy conditions yesterday is lifting away from the region this afternoon, with clearing skies and a westerly breeze in its wake. Winds are significantly stronger across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as well as across eastern Culberson county, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM MST/6 PM CST today. Thus, highs on Thursday, especially across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico, will be cooler than today, though still within a degree or two of normal. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will develop Thursday, persisting through the start of the weekend, when a transition to quasi-zonal flow develops in response to a trough developing across the Rockies.
This Evening Through Wednesday Short wave over eastern MT with upper trof extending southward through WY. Upper ridge builds over the northern Rockies with temperatures warming to well above seasonal normals. A weak trof moves through over the weekend, but precip will be limited.
The expected warming and some mixing should improve conditions for the lower Valley terminals this afternoon, so have broad brushed VFR conditions with still a TEMPO potential through mid afternoon for MVFR ceilings.
Initial precipitation will have to overcome a dry layer in the lower levels, but there should be enough forcing and it should move slow enough that this dry layer is eventually saturated and precipitation begins reaching the ground.
Upper level low continues to move north through the midwest while deep layer ridging dominates the southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 30 49 41 52 / 0 0 20 100 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 26 48 40 50 / 0 0 10 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 45 27 47 38 50 / 0 0 10 100 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 22 50 36 50 / 0 0 0 50 100.
As a result of the cloud cover and southeasterly flow at the surface, temperatures tonight will be much warmer than the last several nights with overnight lows only dropping into the mid 30s. Troughing over the central CONUS pushes eastward during the day on Thursday with an associated low pressure system that is expected to be centered over MO. As the system ejects east northeast across IL/IN a cold front to its south moves across the Tennessee Valley Thursday late afternoon into the evening.
1024 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Secondary circulation/low west of low pressure farther offshore has shown up well on satellite imagery this morning, currently shifting south toward Grand Bahama this morning. These strong winds were able to transport in a chilly airmass for central Florida standards, with lows just below freezing (lowest around 30 degrees) occurring across Lake, inland Volusia and portions of northwest Orange and western Seminole counties.
959 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 Short wave trof is crossing the northern Rockies onto the Plains this morning with precipitation moving into northeastern WY and far western SD.
High pressure will maintain quiet weather the remainder of the day and overnight.
316 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure and upper level ridging are solidly in control today. As this longwave trough and surface systems continue to track eastward throughout the overnight and into the day Thursday, precip will also shift eastward and begin to make its way across Kentucky.
109 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Exiting high pressure will set the stage for southerly flow in the Ohio Valley to warm temperatures back to above normal for the foreseeable future.
An H5 trough continues to dig southeast from Alberta, Canada south to southeast through the Great Plains into the southern Mississippi Valley, with many different split flow perturbations at H5. This trough is progged to strengthen and become negatively tilted across the Mississippi Valley by tomorrow night. Winds will become light tonight with clear skies allowing much of the area to drop below freezing especially in the northwest half of the FA where dewpoints will be less than 30. Daytime highs are looking to be in the low to mid 50s across the area.
303 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights an eastward moving low pressure system developing east of the Bahamas. A short wave ridge axis reaches north into the southeastern United States. The low pressure system will recede to the east into the Western North Atlantic tonight, although a subtle baroclinic zone along its western flank will continue to dive southwest.
1212 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Arctic high pressure will remain across the eastern United States through Thursday.
This allowed temps to spike up into the lower 40s. However, areas west of the Natcher Parkway didn't and their temps remain down in the lower-mid 30s. Lows tonight will drop likely drop off into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in most areas. Closed upper low over the Plains will roll eastward during the day on Thursday.
918 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Temperatures have warmed up to near or just above freezing this morning and are still on track to top out in the mid to upper 40s by this afternoon. Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning over the plains. The ridge will move east of the area tonight, as a trough amplifies over the Plains, with flow aloft becoming southwesterly. High pressure at the surface will move off the Atlantic coast and surface winds over the TN Valley will shift to the south as well. Rain chances will quickly increase on Thursday, as the aforementioned trough continues to progress eastward. Surface cyclogensis will occur over the eastern Central Plains, with its cold front trailing southward through Texas.
357 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure over the mid Atlantic states will remain nearly stationary into Thursday as low pressure over the Central Plains moves into the mid Mississippi Valley.
1159 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Isentropic lift within a marginally cold airmass to support snow will continue through the morning where surface temperatures will hover near or just above freezing across central and southeast Kansas. Another period of rain and snow showers is expected on Thursday, mainly from late morning into the afternoon, as an upper trof approaches from the northwest, becoming a closed low across eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep conditions dry overnight and through the first half of Thursday. Lows tonight should be a bit warmer then previous nights with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Given even the low end of forecast winds is supportive of marginal high winds, feel it is warranted to go ahead an issue a high wind watch for the east Tennessee mountains.
131 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure is retreating off to the east this afternoon with return flow bringing warmer temperatures to Middle Tennessee.
The fog has been locally dense, including the Lower Treasure Valley near Ontario. A warm front will spread light precipitation across the area today and tonight, favoring the higher elevations in the north. Snow levels will rise through tonight as warmer air aloft moves in behind the warm front, reaching 5000-6000 feet in far southeast Oregon and far southwest Idaho, and up to 4000 feet in the north (Baker County to the West Central Mountains).
The warmest readings will be down across the southern half of Kentucky with highs in the lower 40s. On Thursday, an upper level trough will continue digging across the Plains, with a closed upper low expected to develop over the Central Plains by Thursday evening. Under the southerly flow, high temperatures on Thursday will warm into the low to mid 40s.
A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma after midnight and then clear the rest of the area through tomorrow morning, which will lead to improved visibilities and clearing skies into the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today, mostly in the 50s, with downslope flow and increased insolation.
Gradient between high pressure to the north and deepening low off of the Florida East Coast kept winds up enough to keep temperatures a few degrees above forecast lows this morning. Even so, most areas dropped below freezing, with a few locations in the Panhandle and SE Alabama reaching the mid 20s. Expect highs to range from the lower 50s to upper 50s under a veil of thin cirrus.
High temperatures will climb the rest of the week as high pressure tracks across the region. This will lead to somewhat cooler temperatures. In addition, there will be a chance of precipitation over the higher terrain of south-central Arizona. Satellite imagery shows the areas of fog on the lower deserts has pretty much dissipated. High temperatures climb the rest of the week as high pressure tracks across the western CONUS.
342 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure and upper level ridging are solidly in control today. As this longwave trough and surface systems continue to track eastward throughout the overnight and into the day Thursday, precip will also shift eastward and begin to make its way across Kentucky.
Temperatures have warmed up to near or just above freezing this morning and are still on track to top out in the mid to upper 40s by this afternoon. Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning over the plains. The ridge will move east of the area tonight, as a trough amplifies over the Plains, with flow aloft becoming southwesterly. High pressure at the surface will move off the Atlantic coast and surface winds over the TN Valley will shift to the south as well. Rain chances will quickly increase on Thursday, as the aforementioned trough continues to progress eastward. Surface cyclogensis will occur over the eastern Central Plains, with its cold front trailing southward through Texas.
1101 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next upper trough will begin to push moisture up and over the low-level airmass.
215 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 The upper low and associated troughing has moved off the southeast U. The frigid weather associated with this trough that we have seen over the past couple of days will be replaced by a more warm and moist air mass as an upper ridge located over the Mississippi River Valley moves eastward.
233 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 An upper trough is passing over the area this afternoon along with a cold front dropping in from the north. It appears that there is just enough moisture and lift accompanying the trough and front to give us a chance of some light rain showers across the far southern Texas Panhandle through the evening.
Upper level low continues to move north through the midwest while deep layer ridging dominates the southern Appalachians. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 30 49 41 52 / 0 0 20 100 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 26 48 40 50 / 0 0 10 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 45 27 47 38 50 / 0 0 10 100 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 22 50 36 50 / 0 0 0 50 100.
Just high clouds are expected by this afternoon with warmer high temperatures than yesterday. But, eventually, the combination of clearing skies, high pressure building aloft and a little northerly flow will help clear things out by early afternoon. For the remainder of the forecast period, building high pressure will bring a warming trend and dry conditions through the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures have warmed into the 40s to low 50s areawide as an area of rainfall is edging into the CWA from the west this afternoon, associated with an approaching mid-level trough. As the trough progresses eastward, it will need to saturate these lower levels in order for the rainfall to reach the ground. With the increased moisture around though, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, generally in the mid to upper 30s. As the front edge of the precip shield tracks eastward overnight, wet bulb profiles will be hovering in the low-mid 30s within the deep low-level dry air and evaporational cooling will be underway along that edge.
Expect an inverted trough to set up into the valley tonight into Thursday, bringing some weak lift as well. This may be enough for some freezing drizzle too. This same area could add some light snow to the fog/freezing drizzle mix on Thursday and Thursday night.
The mid level short wave trough will be moving through the coastal region this evening. Could see showers linger over this area before drying arrives once the short wave trough departs to the east. It will be cool and dry for Thursday night as a high pressure ridge builds into the region.
/issued 151 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/ The upper trough responsible for the cool, breezy, and rainy conditions yesterday is lifting away from the region this afternoon, with clearing skies and a westerly breeze in its wake. Winds are significantly stronger across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as well as across eastern Culberson county, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM MST/6 PM CST today. Thus, highs on Thursday, especially across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico, will be cooler than today, though still within a degree or two of normal. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will develop Thursday, persisting through the start of the weekend, when a transition to quasi-zonal flow develops in response to a trough developing across the Rockies.
A somewhat unstable NW flow aloft over the region this afternoon stabilizes tonight as an upper level ridge and its associated warming aloft shifts into the Northern Rockies.
Rain is likely this weekend, with snow mixing in at times, in association with an upper trough moving through. An upper trough will slowly be approaching the area tonight which will lead to increasing cloud cover overnight. By sunrise, precipitation is possible for the western third of our forecast area, depending on the eastward progression of the trough overnight. Models are in good agreement of an upper trough moving across the region throughout the short term and bringing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. They show the trough transitioning into somewhat of a cut off low over the Ozarks before moving across the Ohio Valley and towards New England.
Expecting the backdoor cold front moving southwestward across the state will keep low stratus clouds around our area tonight and much of Thursday. Initial precipitation will have to overcome a dry layer in the lower levels, but there should be enough forcing and it should move slow enough that this dry layer is eventually saturated and precipitation begins reaching the ground.
646 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
The 20Z surface map shows an expansive ridge of high pressure stretched across the eastern CONUS with a trough of lower pressure located from South Dakota southward through western Kansas. Thus, I expect the area to remain at or just above the freezing mark into tomorrow. The temperature profile through the first several thousand feet of the atmosphere will likely be similar to what we saw today with near surface conditions just above freezing but below freezing the rest of the way up. Temperatures will then start to decrease into the low 30s after sunset, and will eventually drop into the upper 20s area-wide tomorrow night as the system departs the area.
557 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Weak forcing from a low far to our southeast will cause a wintry mix (including freezing drizzle) to sneak through the area from the southeast tonight and eventually the column cools enough to turn most of that into snow.
With cloud cover moving into the area, the ridge to valley temperature difference will not be as pronounced. High pressure and upper level ridging are solidly in control today. As this longwave trough and surface systems continue to track eastward throughout the overnight and into the day Thursday, precip will also shift eastward and begin to make its way across Kentucky.
The challenge for fog will be the higher dew points that have snuck in which is likely helping melt some of the existing snowpack. Weak surface and near surface convergence will likely help pool moisture a bit and weak warm advection aloft will help lock in this low level moisture. Currently it appears that the high resolution models and the Nam are handling the moisture a little better than the GFS. In these areas that can produce precipitation the type will also be a bit unknown with the low level thermal field near the freezing mark into the early overnight hours.