Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1145 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A warm front will surge through the region early today. A much warmer southerly flow is expected this afternoon through Thursday night.
Winds around the periphery of high pressure off the SE coast will bring steady increase in LL moisture along with rather mild onshore flow. Ridging aloft over the area will make only slow eastward progress through tonight.
934 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will remain offshore today. A weak cold front will approach today and then stall across our area tonight. This stalled boundary will push north as a warm front on Thursday.
1039 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure offshore creating southerly winds will produce much warmer temps today and Thursday.
656 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Cold front pushing across the area currently with winds turning to the northwest in its wake. Widely scattered predawn light rain with a few wet flakes are possible along the northern third of NW MN and with SFC and road temps above freezing so no impacts are expected. Colder air will begin to rush in on NW winds as the cold front pushes quickly across the area. However, clouds will increase Thursday afternoon and evening with the approach of a cold front. As the cold front pushes southward through the region Thursday night light snow will be possible across much of the region with the best chance for any accumulating snow across southeastern ND/western MN.
Initial cold front passed through the region yesterday, and cold air is beginning to filter south of the border. The cold air advection is also bringing breezy conditions and potentially a little rain or snow for the western zones later this morning as high pressure pushes into North Dakota.
956 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A front with waves of low pressure meanders nearby through Thursday with periods of heavy rain, then pushes through Thursday night.
Upper air features of note show the strong full latitudinal jet from Mexico across the Plains toward the Great Lakes with the broad mid tropospheric trough over the central U. As the closed low in the southwest U. opens up and tries to phase with the deepening trough over the Northern Rockies, much colder air works into Plains.
Rain is already developing across Middle Tennessee this morning as a slow-moving cold front sets up just to our northwest. Look for ceilings to bounce around during the next few hours as the low-levels become saturated, then drop down for good overnight.
1123 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 The morning sfc analysis indicates that the weak cold front has been reinforced SE to near a LFK, to N of a Many, to N of IER, to near MLU line as of 16Z. 8 inches should result in widespread 3-6+ inch QPF amounts, with some of the high res progs suggesting an axis of 7-8" totals over Deep E TX and the Srn/Ern sections of Ncntrl LA.
A wave of low pressure will track along the front, and will head from central Texas to northeast Arkansas by Thursday morning. As the low exits toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, it will pull the front through the region and rain will taper off Thursday night.
Clear skies prevail across interior northern CA as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds into the region.
A cold front will arrive in the KWWR area a few hours before sunrise tomorrow (Thursday about 0900Z), bringing north-northwest winds, but a continued low ceiling. Rain chances remain tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region.
The main axis of precipitation associated with the front will gradually shift southeastward today and tonight, as the upper level trough near the Arizona/New Mexico border early this morning pushes eastward. Additional showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will likely develop and affect the northern half to two-thirds of the forecast area late tonight and into Thursday as a disturbance moves through the northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the main trough.
With the upper trough axis west of the Region, we will continue low rain chances through the day, in case a rogue shower or two develops. Rain will begin to increase in areal coverage again late tonight and into Thursday morning, as another speed max migrates into the approaching upper low, and forces showers across the Ozarks. Much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday night as lows fall into the low to middle 30s.
Thinking that downslope off Cheyenne Ridge will dissipate any precip as it moves south, and so far trends have borne this out. There should be a little less moisture and wind to work with this time, and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
Deep layer ridge over the southeastern states will keep the weather warm and quiet today.
/issued 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ Slow-moving cold front has become near-stationary this morning, from near Nacogdoches, to Shreveport, to El Dorado. Models indicate another similar situation for this aftn, and this is likely to continue in waves until the upper trof finally forces the cold front e of our region Thursday morning. Threat for severe storms will ramp up this aftn and early this evening for portions of the region, as a mid lvl speed max moves over the moderately unstable and very moist airmass in place s of the stalled cold front. The NAM continues to indicate a few shwrs developing along a secondary impulse rounding the base of the upper trof, but the Euro/GFS solutions seem to be too limited with respect to moisture for any QPF output.
It will be 5-10 degrees cooler today with 700mb temperatures lowering to -6 to -8C this afternoon.
630 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A Pacific cold front moves through this morning. With an upper low parked over Hudson Bay pushing a large scale trough into central Canada and US, Nebraska remains in northwest flow aloft for the next several days. ridge and surface cold fronts result in a couple decent shots of precip and winter-like conditions. A weak H7 wave passes through the area behind the cold front. Made little change to highs as they're toward the cooler end of guidance, which is reasonable given cloud coverage and weak CAA.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 59 72 54 / 30 30 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 56 75 53 / 20 30 60 100 Oak Ridge, TN 70 56 73 53 / 40 50 70 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 53 78 51 / 20 20 20 100.
A weak 850-700mb trough looks like it will swing through and possibly produce enough lift/moisture in the low levels to produce a few rain showers. medium An upper trough digs across the northern plains tonight, with an upper jet across far southeast Wisconsin.
LAPS data showed a cold front entering northwest Middle Tennessee early this morning, bringing a band of numerous showers along with it. Believe our cold front will weaken and become stationary near Nashville this evening and serve as a conveyor belt for several low pressure areas that will ride northeastward along the front tonight and Thursday.
928 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A dry subsident air mass (via 12Z raob data) under deep layered ridging covering the area will support pleasant dry warm weather with ample sunshine across the entire forecast area the remainder of today. As the ridge axis sinks further to the south tonight into Thursday lighter winds are expected across all of the waters as the flow veers to the southeast and south.
Expecting snow accumulations of less than one inch, mainly in Colorado, with a low probability of freezing rain during the transition period which may result in some minor ice accumulations.
Weak cold front north passed through Idaho zones during the night. Little if any cooling is expected today, but tonight will be a little cooler than last night as winds decrease.
1158 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Aviation High pressure will provide dry weather today, but clouds will linger especially from Grand Rapids to the south and east. Rain will redevelop late tonight and continue Thursday as low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley Region.
/Issued 740 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018/ The wedge continues to erode as the center of the high pressure becomes anchored off the coast of the Carolinas. Not much chance for showers today as we remain under the influence of the ridge aloft.
Breezy southerly winds this evening should subside some overnight across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas before becoming gusty during the day Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system approaching the Plains.
729 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure through Tuesday with increasing temperatures. High pressure remains firmly in control and forecast remains on track. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through this time period. Light winds and clear skies will make for chilly night with temperatures dropping into the 30s in the northern mountains to the warmer 50s in the west. The upper level pattern takes deepening low pressure systems from the intermountain west northeastward into the far northern Great Lakes. From a sensible weather standpoint, the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians will remain under the influences of upper level ridging with 15-20C 850mb temperatures.
856 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 An upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature across the Commonwealth. Return southerly flow will bring warmer air and just a tad bit more moisture back into the region, making it just slightly more muggy for those with outdoor activities. Upper level ridging across the eastern United States will result in above normal temperatures for the latter part of the week and on into the weekend.
1053 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Issued at 1052| PM EDT MON MAY 15 2017 An upper level ridge continues to dominate with only passing cirrus at present. Hourly grids were freshened up to account for steep nocturnal inversion/ridge valley temperature split currently in place between the valleys and the ridges. Some valley locations are currently around 60 or in the lower 60s with some ridgetops in the low to mid 70s.
1114 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Low pressure near Nova Scotia drifts farther away from the Tri- State Region through Tuesday.
720 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will cross the area from the west Tuesday then move off into the western Atlantic for the rest of the week. With subsidence from the high, not expecting any isolated convection along the sea breeze.
1027 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure through Tuesday with increasing temperatures. High pressure remains firmly in control and forecast remains on track. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through this time period. Light winds and clear skies will make for chilly night with temperatures dropping into the 30s in the northern mountains to the warmer 50s in the west. The upper level pattern takes deepening low pressure systems from the intermountain west northeastward into the far northern Great Lakes. From a sensible weather standpoint, the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians will remain under the influences of upper level ridging with 15-20C 850mb temperatures.
714 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Southerly flow between departing high pressure and approaching low pressure will persist through the period.
1223 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Weak low pressure over the area today will dissipate while high pressure moving over the Atlantic strengthens and becomes the dominate weather system the rest of the week. A weak cold front may approach the area late in the week. Weak low pressure was located over southeast NC tonight but is not expected to produce any significant weather while it dissipates Tuesday. Meanwhile high pressure will move into the Atlantic and strengthen in response to a building upper ridge. With subsidence from the high, not expecting any isolated convection along the sea breeze.
High pressure remains in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley tonight. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Despite another good diurnal range tonight, not expecting any fog formation due to warmer temperatures.
1144 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing a deep longwave trof over the western CONUS with a closed off low/potent vort max currently digging southward through southern CA heading toward Baja.
The models drive another cold front through Wrn and Ncntl Neb in the morning. Increasing moisture and strong upper level dynamics emerging from the upper level low across the Wrn U.
A look at satellite and we find the remnant trough across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage.
/issued 336 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017/ Ridging aloft continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Mid-South this afternoon, providing sunny skies, relatively light winds, and warm temperatures. The pattern will shift over the next few days as the deep trough over the Desert Southwest moves slowly east. As this wave slowly approaches, winds aloft will become southwesterly with the ridge axis shifting east of the region.
701 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will remain in control across the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. A warm front will lift north through the region Tuesday afternoon.
Satellite and radar pictures are showing a little bit of convection in the high mountains. I will go with minimal pops over the high mountains this evening. For temperatures, Tuesday highs look to be some 3-6 C cooler than this afternoon's highs. Each of the models show an initial short wave trough moving over the state tomorrow night which will help keep afternoon shower activity going through the evening hours.
With dewpoints in the lower 60s near the TN River, the crossover temps will likely be reached during the late overnight. /issued 336 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017/ Ridging aloft continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Mid-South this afternoon, providing sunny skies, relatively light winds, and warm temperatures. The pattern will shift over the next few days as the deep trough over the Desert Southwest moves slowly east. As this wave slowly approaches, winds aloft will become southwesterly with the ridge axis shifting east of the region.
801 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. A warm front will begin to progress to the northeast across the area tonight as a mid level ridge builds east into the Ohio Valley. Lows will rage from near 50 across east central Ohio to the lower 60s far west and southwest. Mid level ridge will continue to build into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as warm front departs to our northeast. It will be warm with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
921 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will remain in control across the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. A warm front will lift north through the region Tuesday afternoon.
Proton Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a ridge axis running from Mexico into Colorado and then turning east into the central US Plains. A large trough is opposite of this stretching down the west coast of north america from British Columbia to California. This trough is quickly breaking in half with a with a closed low over SoCal and another developing over BC. The BC trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest. A meso-ridge will develop in response over the eastern Montana. While a broad/upper closed low pattern looks to persist across the western CONUS leading to predominantly cooler and cloudy conditions with occasional showers across portions of northeast Montana, steady and persistent heavy rainfall looks to remain south.
933 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure building into NY and PA will bring milder weather on Tuesday, and summer-like temperatures for the middle of the week.
High pressure to the north will maintain an onshore wind flow which will allow for mild overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There have been some cloud lines over the Atlantic but moisture recovery has only been in the lowest levels, so no isolated showers are expected yet. High pressure to the north will slowly strengthen, which will gradually increase east winds, with speeds getting near 15 knots by Tue afternoon.
802 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will build over the East Coast through the week, bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather. This boundary separates an air mass to the north with dewpoints in the low-mid 40s, from an air mass south of the boundary where dewpoints in the 55-60 degree range. Where the drier air currently exists, overnight temperatures in the low-mid 50s are probable. As a weak high pressure at the surface shifts offshore early, expect sunny skies and continued warming temperatures. The GFS suggests that a persistent upper level trough over the Rockies/Inter-Mountain west will become progressive over the weekend, with strengthening SW flow aloft over the Carolinas and a cold front approaching from the west early Monday. This scenario would argue for cooler temperatures and increased chances for convection.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 86 60 85 / 0 10 0 0.
The longwave trough is developing across the western United States and the upper ridge has slid to the east. Expect more coverage in storms beginning tomorrow evening with storms again forming west on and near the dryline, but will have greater coverage and intensity and last longer into the evening and overnight as the upper trough pivots toward the high plains tomorrow.
Southerly flow continues over northeast Kansas tonight ahead of a deepening longwave trough moving towards the central plains. Temperatures look to warm up tomorrow into the low 80s, with dewpoint temperatures reaching into the mid-60s during the afternoon. While on the low side, a tornado threat cannot be ruled out with low level bulk shear values near 20 knots.
616 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 As upper ridge builds into region, will see warm southerly winds persist across the forecast area through Tuesday. Given recent trends, going forecast is probably not warm enough and trended twd the warmer guidance thru mid week. next chance for precip is very late Tues night into Wed as an upper trof rotates thru the region.
Britt As upper ridge builds into region, will see warm southerly winds persist across the forecast area through Tuesday. Given recent trends, going forecast is probably not warm enough and trended twd the warmer guidance thru mid week. next chance for precip is very late Tues night into Wed as an upper trof rotates thru the region.
714 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 While it's hot and more humid today, temperatures tomorrow will likely be several degrees cooler. This appears to be mainly due to cooler temperatures aloft, despite similar depth of mixing. Cross sections show what appears to be an elevated cold front and model QPF seems to be tied that feature.
Upper level ridge is also noted across the forecast area helping to cap the atmosphere, so any cu development from daytime heating and low level moisture is not developing into any shower activity.
1232 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Low pressure near Nova Scotia drifts farther away from the Tri- State Region through Tuesday.
517 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Cool outflow from the thunderstorms that passed through last night, cloud cover through the morning and low level moisture have all combined to keep temperatures cooler than the potential over much of the region today. Low pressure along a sfc boundary will drift northeastward into nern WY area late this afternoon and evening, with drier air moving into northeast WY to the southwest of the low. The best chances for showers and storms and the risk for some strong to severe storms will generally be near and to the north and east of the low over northeastern Wyoming and northwest and central SD during the evening hours.
945 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Temperatures will range from near 50 east of Columbus to the lower 60s in SE Indiana. Mid level ridge will continue to build into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as warm front departs to our northeast. It will be warm with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Either way, it will be a little warmer than last night. Tomorrow should be the warmest day of the week as the high pressure ridge axis finally pushes over the region. By the latter half of the week, the upper ridge pushes east of the mid-state and a couple of things start to happen. Secondly, as the ridge starts to lose its grip over the region, small chances of diurnally-driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms will begin creeping back into the forecast.
Southerly winds are also expected to increase during the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. mostly cloudy skies should become common from west to east as the low pressure system moves into the Plains.
1006 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure over the area tonight with clear skies and light winds.
An upper trough currently over southern California will move into New Mexico tomorrow. Lift associated with the trough will erode the cap tomorrow allowing for much more convection to develop. The trough will push the dryline into the central Permian Basin with storms developing from around Lamesa to Fort Stockton moving east. West winds on the southern periphery of the trough will mix into the Guadalupe Mountains approaching or briefly reaching high wind criteria on Tuesday.
A second round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later this evening and into the overnight as an ill-defined surface warm front currently draped across central IA is forecast to lift northward with a strengthening low-level jet. Elevated storms north of the front could produce hail, but freezing levels around 12-13 kft may be a limiting factor for severe hail. If, and it's a big if, the warm front can move far enough north early this evening and encounter a more unstable/pristine, moisture-rich boundary layer, cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado or damaging winds. Warm front should lift north of I-90 by 12Z Tuesday, allowing for some lingering morning convection mainly north of I-94.
Currently, a warm front is draped across central Nebraska and gradually lifting northward, aided by gusty southerly winds.
722 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure remains in control resulting in a clear sky and VFR conditions prevailing at CHA and TYS throughout the TAF period.
649 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 The area stills remains under high pressure this afternoon with the high forecast to continue to drift eastward. Our next weather maker is an upper level trough currently making its way across southern California. This trough is expected to continue to dig into the southern Rockies during the day on Tuesday.
However the LLJ is expected to increase by late evening with additionally development likely on the warm front pushing north across Iowa and into MN. /Tonight through Tuesday/ Confidence: Medium Warm front now retreating north. The GFS/Euro both are tending to refire the convection over northeast areas this evening between 00 and 04z as the low level jet increases into the boundary. /Tuesday night through Monday/ Tuesday night the upper trough finally begins to lift out of the Plains which then pushes the surface features northeast.
In the upper levels a ridge extends from the southern states to the Midwest. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
Looking at water vapor imagery, SE Texas still has ridging aloft which will suppress any convection. An upper level low continues to deepen over southern California with deep SW flow aloft over the southern Rockies. This upper level flow should push east tonight and Tuesday with the ridge moving east.
A strong upper low will move southeast toward the area this evening, and pass directly overhead Tuesday night. Showers will move in ahead of a strong cold front. The strong cold front will move into southeast Oregon Tue afternoon and progress rapidly east through tomorrow evening.
854 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley tonight. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Despite another good diurnal range tonight, not expecting any fog formation due to warmer temperatures.