Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper trough passing eastward across Idaho tonight will bring breezy, cooler, dry wx Monday.
A cold front will then approach the region late week. Low pressure was along the Northeast Charleston County coast as of late Sunday evening, continuing with it's counter-clockwise movement from earlier. It is still stuck in a nebulous pattern aloft under a weak and negatively tilted trough, but will lift a bit further overnight to the north/northeast as there becomes a little better flow between the trough and the Sub-Tropical Atlantic Ridge. Bands of showers with a chance of localized heavy downpours will continue to develop in deep moisture convergence on the back-side of the low overnight.
otherwise mainly VFR conditions should prevail as high pressure moves across Wisconsin MOnday. otherwise High pressure will bring light west winds tonight with a lake breeze developing Monday. High Isolated showers will wind down this afternoon in the far north as the main trough axis heads eastward. Skies will then turn mostly clear this evening with mostly sunny skies expected Memorial Day under high pressure. Temperatures tomorrow will be above average once again, reaching the lower 80s most places. It will probably be a little cooler near Lake Michigan in the afternoon, as the light winds will allow a lake breeze to develop and move inland.
A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain temperatures near to slightly below average to start the week.
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Mostly clear skies expected across central IL overnight along with light winds as a general high pressure area remains just south of the area. expected to reach the low 60s overnight. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5- 8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects. A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging.
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 An upper level trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. as upper ridge continues to slide east of the region as an upper trof swings towards the western GLAKS from the upper midwest. Bonnie (downgraded at 8:00 AM this morning) and aforementioned 5H ridge. the first associated with the upper trof approaching from the eastern GLAKS and OH Valley and the 2nd over the southeast. Successive HRRR runs have shown a distinct back edge to the precip reaching towards the Lower Susq River Valley by 09z.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 87 64 88 / 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 84 60 86 / 10 30 10 10.
Lows will be in the lower 60s. A few clouds are expected tomorrow with lighter winds and highs in the low to mid 80s.
719 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Aviation The region will continue to see slightly cooler and drier air move in tonight.
741 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 An upper level trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. as upper ridge continues to slide east of the region as an upper trof swings towards the western GLAKS from the upper midwest. Bonnie (downgraded at 8:00 AM this morning) and aforementioned 5H ridge. the first associated with the upper trof approaching from the eastern GLAKS and OH Valley and the 2nd over the southeast. Successive HRRR runs have shown a distinct back edge to the precip reaching towards the Lower Susq River Valley by 09z.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, a weak pressure pattern will prevail overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the Florida peninsula tonight.
1239 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week, with continued warm temperatures. Area of showers ahead of cold front into western ohio are dissipating and have only left chance pops across small portion of eastern ohio. An isolated shower or storm will remain possible along the ridges as the cold front trudges eastward.
The TN valley will be between these two systems along with a weak area of high pressure over the cwa. (Issued 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016) For 00Z TAFs: Except for some patchy mvfr fog between 10z and 12z, vfr conditions are expected thru the fcst period due to weak high pressure and a fairly dry atmosphere. Upper level ridging will continue to build in for the end of the Memorial Day holiday and beginning of the next work week. Memorial Day should be fairly nice, though fairly hot, as the high pressure builds. High temps will reach into the reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s, but dewpoints may mix down to the lower 60s and will keep our heat indices from climbing into the upper 90s.
West winds will gust as high as 25 to 35 mph through this evening with the highest gusts around Wenatchee and Chelan. The highest gusts early this evening are expected to occur along the East Slopes of the Cascades through the Cascade gaps like the Wenatchee Valley, down Lake Chelan, and through the Kittitas Valley into the Vantage area where gusts of 35 mph or more will be possible. This evening will also feature showers and widely scattered thunderstorms under the 500mb trough along the Canadian border from north of Republic to Kettle Falls to Bonners Ferry. Memorial Day (Monday): The low pressure trough that has been anchored over British Columbia the last several days will move through central and eastern Montana Monday allowing an upper level ridge to build over the Pacific Northwest.
The highest coverage is indicated KMLB-KSUA and points westward, but storms should propagate northward into the inland TAF sites later in the day (I-4 corridor and KLEE). A weak high pressure ridge over the waters will provide light winds.
The storm activity will then shift to the west and northwest ahead of an approaching upper level short wave trough. Expect the lift to increase during the evening, mainly over the northwest and north central part of the area into the overnight hours before weakening as the short wave trough begins to fill. Thunderstorm activity Monday evening, some severe, will slowly wind down Monday night as the longwave of low pressure pulls slightly eastward overnight.
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead of a cold front. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Monday morning. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler for the holiday, the greater impact will be clearing skies through the day.
The combination of light snow and moisture freezing on roadways has created slick conditions for the morning commute through the Seeley/Swan and Missoula/Bitterroot valleys. A low pressure system passing through southern Idaho will continue to wrap moisture into mainly southwest Montana and central Idaho, generally south of the Interstate 90 corridor. Generally showery and cooler conditions will persist across the region into early this weekend as a large scale trough remains over the region.
Expect another anomalous warm day with highs in the middle 70s to the lower 80s. An associated cold front will be approaching from the ArkLaTex region. /17/ Another warm day will occur on Friday as the upper ridge will slide off to the east. As this does, an attendant cold front will push into the ArkLaMiss region during the evening hours on Friday.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue until the next cold front moves through the area during the day tomorrow.
507 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 Upper trough over Utah sliding east with large area of synoptic scale lift from NE Utah/NW Colorado across Wyoming. Models have a mean upper trough over the western United States on Friday.
(Modified prev disc) Elongated low pressure is expected to transition slowly away from the coast with a tight pressure gradient over the northern waters of Volusia Co.
359 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 Stand up cold front is sweeping across western Colorado this morning being driven by a circulation over S. Temperatures will cool significantly behind the front however with highs today forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Highs on Friday may even be a few degrees cooler yet.
Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions are forecast through Friday with chilly overnight temperatures.
Cold front will move into the area late tonight or early Friday. Anyway, pressure gradient over the area will increase today, as high pressure over the Tennessee Valley slowly moves eastward, and low pressure deepens out in the plains, and drags a cold front toward the region. Humidity will decrease rapidly behind the front, as high pressure moves into the region.
An upper trough, currently swinging through the Rockies, will slowly move into the Central Plains today with strong upper winds moving overhead. Will likely see the highest winds across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the SE NM Plains and a High Wind Warning is in effect for these areas mid morning through early evening. Not as windy Friday however somewhat breezy conditions and temperatures roughly 15 degrees cooler can be expected.
Temepratures will be much cooler than yesterday, but still above normal with readings in the 30s, to lower 40s. We'll start with the highlights for the Friday winter storm.
908 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Low pressure centered in the Bahamas will be moving farther off the Southeast Coast Friday.
A slow moving upper low positioned over s-central Idaho this morning will keep snow over central Idaho into Friday. Drier air moves in from the west tonight, cutting off snow showers for all but central ID zones where moisture continues to wrap around the low over s-central ID. With a broad upper trough over the area temperatures will remain about 10 degrees below normal through Friday.
Cold front will move through late in the prevailing period with winds becoming northwesterly behind the front. Fire weather will remain a concern into Friday behind the cold front, with drier air and breezy conditions. The low level thermal ridge will nose right up into eastern OK this afternoon ahead of a cold front. For this reason, the high temp forecast will be a few degrees higher than yesterday, which overachieved in some spots as well. A cold front will push thru the region tonight into Friday, bringing an abrupt change to the unseasonable warmth.
/ISSUED 320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/ An upper ridge of high pressure will bring another warm and dry day to Southeast Texas today. The ridge will push eastward as a storm system moves across the northern Plains on Friday and pushes a front across our forecast area. Much cooler temperatures will follow the cold front over the weekend.
This is where the High Wind Warning will be located.
There is a chance patchy/shallow fog could form along and east of I-35 between 06Z-11Z Friday ahead of a cold front. Later this evening the dry-line is forecast to move back to the west while a Pacific cold front moves from west Texas into the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas.
427 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2017 Below freezing temperatures across much of the forecast area this morning mean that black ice is possible on untreated roadways today until road surface temperatures warm to above freezing. Portions of the East Side and the mountains will remain below freezing today. Snow showers have dissipated overnight to just some lingering snow flurries, mainly across the higher mountains and East Side.
Slight chance of rain will be retained, due to small weak showers embedded in the low level cyclonic flow.
614 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Weak low pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move into the Bahamas today with onshore flow weakening.
440 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 Stand up cold front is sweeping across western Colorado this morning being driven by a circulation over S. Temperatures will cool significantly behind the front however with highs today forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Highs on Friday may even be a few degrees cooler yet.
Observations along and south of the ridge axis in our area continue to show calm to light winds. Expect this fog to gradually lift by noon as the ridge axis strengthen a bit helping to increase winds slightly and the heating of the day begins in earnest. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 54 77 50 / 10 10 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 53 76 53 / 10 10 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 74 53 76 50 / 10 10 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 48 76 54 / 10 10 10 80.
Anticipate at least similar mixing heights today with slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures (~20C). For tonight, a cold front is expected to veer the winds to the northwest. The airmass behind the front is much cooler, with more seasonable temperatures expected Friday.
Surface wise, a broad low pressure system (1004 mb) is located along the central Florida east coast, with the next in a series of troughs aligned across Tampa and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Upper trough moves out of the Four Corners region today, with upper ridge shifting to the east. At the surface, trough/dryline feature should be able to mix into at least the Brush Country. Upper trough continues to move eastward on Friday with the associated cold front moving through the area. Across the southern Coastal Bend, temps could reach the lower 90s.
430 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 The southwest and north-central MT region will continue to reside in a fairly weak flow pattern with a broad upper trough to our west over Washington and Oregon. A well-defined upper low over far south-central Idaho this morning will move east-southeast away from the area as well over the next 24 hours.
Water vapor imagery shows slow moving upper low near the NV/ID/UT triple point, with strong diffluence producing precipitation from southeast ID thru central WY where strong mid level baroclinicity exists. Main trend among recent models are to keep stronger forcing further to our south, though weak isentropic ascent will persist thru today and into tonight as the low tracks thru WY to western NE. Pcpn will likely remain light until moisture deepens in association with the upper low.
Winds should weaken after sunset; however, a cold front will shift the winds to the northwest through the evening/overnight hours. Anticipate at least similar mixing heights today with slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures (~20C). For tonight, a cold front is expected to veer the winds to the northwest. The airmass behind the front is much cooler, with more seasonable temperatures expected Friday.
804 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Upper air plots and satellite imagery showing upper low slowly moving off the east coast of FL this morning with back of vort field wrapping over W Central and SW FL. Low pressure surface and aloft over the Florida peninsula will gradually push east today and tonight exiting east of the region. High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida on Friday in the wake of the low pressure system. High temperatures in the upper 70s near the coast to the lower 80s inland.
A low pressure system passing through southern Idaho will continue to wrap moisture into mainly southwest Montana and central Idaho, generally south of the Interstate 90 corridor. Generally showery and cooler conditions will persist across the region into early this weekend as a large scale trough remains over the region.
305 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 The southwest and north-central MT region will continue to reside in a fairly weak flow pattern with a broad upper trough to our west over Washington and Oregon. A well-defined upper low over far south-central Idaho this morning will move east-southeast away from the area as well over the next 24 hours.
Coastal showers rotating around the northern periphery of the aforementioned low will continue to move towards coastal areas of NE FL, with the highest chances south of St Augustine. Most inland locations will remain dry thanks to significant upper level dry slot on the back side of the upper low. Low pressure along the east central FL coast will meander slowly to the east before accelerating to the east tonight. The strong gradient between the low to the south and a high across the western Atlantic will produce strong winds especially along the lower northeast FL coast and offshore northeast FL waters where a Gale Warning is in effect for today. Winds will begin to decrease tonight as the low moves east, but seas will remain elevated and SCA conditions are expected to continue offshore into Friday.
826 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Weak low pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move into the Bahamas today with onshore flow into the forecast area weakening.
133 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Aviation High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through Monday and result in mostly clear skies and a continued moderating trend of temperatures.
Currently a large upper level trough was sitting over the Pacific northwest. This long wave trough pattern will basically stay stationary for much of the coming week.
though the northerly flow will help to reinforce the a cooler air mass as well. Upper trough off to our east just doesn't want to leave. No pops and sunny skies expected elsewhere as ridge axis is just off to our west. Trough finally exits overnight Monday as ridging further builds into the area.
Early this morning a cold front has stalled out across eastern Montana. As the main upper level wave and jet streak push into western North Dakota this afternoon this area of stratus will begin to erode and the cold front will propagate eastward. The high-res models point toward the southern James Valley as the most likely location for heavy rain. Models are having a rather difficult time resolving individual waves within the West Coast trough, but cyclonic flow over the area should bring a near daily chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The KDIK, KBIS, and KMOT terminals will be most impacted by the low clouds.
(Today thru Tue) Earlier today, energy on the backside of the upper trough translated to some cloud cover for much of the day. Otw, dry weather with a warming trend as a slow moving but high amplitude ridge moves in.
350 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Deep southwest flow will remain in place across southern Colorado today and tonight as upper level low pressure shifts slowly from the Pacific Northwest into southern Canada.
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. Clouds, rain, and shallow heights are forecast to limit the high temperature to about 5 to 10 degrees below the average.
608 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A weak frontal boundary will be across north central areas today while low pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast tracks south of the Gulf of Maine. High pressure will build across the region Monday.
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it. Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across the Western US. It will take most of the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast. Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.
With mid-level ridging building across our area from the west, most locations will remain dry today. Again, the highest moisture in the atmospheric column will remain in the southwestern part of my CWA. Mid-level ridging will continue Monday but there may be some outside shot of isolated showers/storms in the western part of the forecast area.
a slight weakening of the ridge combined with abundant moisture and weak cap will result in an active sea breeze again today. Expect max temps to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with a little less cloud cover. Drier and warm Monday as ridge builds in aloft with a slightly stronger onshore flow.
323 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 The large low pressure system over the NW U. The system's surface cold front was moving across the CO and UT border over NW CO and stretching back to the SW. Aside from wave clouds over ridges the southern half of the forecast area will remain nearly cloudless. Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the period. Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the mean trough during the second half of the week.
214 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure currently centered near the IA/MO border will shift across IL this afternoon providing clear skies, light northerly winds becoming light and variable, and a warming air mass. Cutoff low expected to form over the mid-Atlantic region tonight, and this will slow the eastward progression of the upper ridge that is currently over the Plains.
Tonight the piece of the trough brushing by us today moves north of us, dragging a surface boundary/cold front by and shifting the cooler air aloft a bit further east. This will bring in some cooler and drier air. I lowered tonight's lows a couple of degrees, near the cooler edge of guidance. Lows will be 5-10 degrees cooler due to the cooling, lighter winds and not much cloud cover. A cold front Late Sunday night into Monday morning will slip into the northeast plains. Best coverage will be over the higher terrain. Southeasterly winds will develop across the northeast plains by the aftn which should help produce a Denver cyclone.
A cold front approaching the area was producing a band of scattered showers and storms primarily across the coastal waters with a few isolated showers across the eastern portion of Ne Fl and Se Ga. Near seasonal temps in the mid to upper 80s across Ne Fl and slightly cooler readings across Se Ga.
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A pattern of mid clouds and virga will finish moving through SE Michigan prior to sunrise associated with an upper wave and backdoor cold front. The incoming air behind this front will be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, especially in the Thumb region where onshore flow from Lake Huron will provide extra cooling. In the meantime, the sharp upper level ridge aligned over the central U. will produce a due north flow over lower Michigan that will be strongly subsident on the downstream side of the ridge axis.
with high pressure providing clear skies and very light winds tonight into tomorrow morning. A pattern of mid clouds and virga will finish moving through SE Michigan prior to sunrise associated with an upper wave and backdoor cold front. The incoming air behind this front will be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, especially in the Thumb region where onshore flow from Lake Huron will provide extra cooling. In the meantime, the sharp upper level ridge aligned over the central U. will produce a due north flow over lower Michigan that will be strongly subsident on the downstream side of the ridge axis.
As the jet stream axis along the western periphery of the trough moves inland there will be some warm air overrunning along and near the coast, so expect mostly overcast conditions there along with a greater possibility of rainfall this afternoon through Monday.