Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS PRECIP ROTATES AROUND THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
652 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015 A weakening upper level low is currently over Oklahoma slowly moving northward. The upper level low will continue to move northward through tomorrow.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY COOLER. UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING SUPPORTING NO PCPN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.
The focus will then shift to the large upper-level trough building into the Intermountain West. Later in the period, as the upper low is expected to be closer to the region, temperatures may top out in the mid to upper 60s.
AS THIS LOW PUSHES FARTHER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/ Cloud cover has been extensive and persistent across our area today, as a result low-level moisture wrapping around the departing upper trough. With low- level thermal ridge developing to our west, a strong temperature rebound is expected and should have afternoon highs in the lower 80s across much of our area. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) An upper trough moving through the Central Rocky Mountains is expected to slow down and cut off over the Southwest US this week.
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/ UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN U. ITS CLOSED LOW SEASON AND THINGS CAN GET SLUGGISH AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO HAVE THE HIGHER POPS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING PLATEAU. LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT SINCE MID STATE WILL BE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH LATE WED PM/EVE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES UPPER LOW.
As the low level winds veer around to a southeasterly direction low level moisture will spread back northward into MO, mainly west of the Mississippi River on the southwestern periphery of the 850 mb ridge. With more mid level moisture and cloudiness moving back into our forecast area went on the warmer side of the MOS guidance for low temperatures tonight.
TONIGHT: A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE, A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE UTAH-COLORADO BORDER. A LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEESIDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM SURGE FORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WE WILL START INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE.
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/ UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS.
701 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 OUTSIDE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS /BASED ABOVE 20K FT/ HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. SATELLITE SHOWS ONGOING SHEARING OF THIS HIGH CLOUD WITH SOME THINNING AND SUSPECT THIS HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SUB FREEZING IN THE THUMB.
727 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH QUIET.
700 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 336 PM CDT AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS NOT BEING HANDLED IN A VERY SIMILAR MANNER BY THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT ALL HAVE A BASIC AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY. THE DOMINANCE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 604 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS TNITE AND LIFT THROUGH LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE MOVED FROM OFF CORPUS CHRISTI THIS MORNING TO AROUND TOLEDO BEND THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WAS NOSING INTO NORTHERN SASK/NORTHERN ALTA WITH A SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE TO THE EAST. SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO MAN/WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MON. RAISED THE LOW A TAD OVER THE EAST AND LOWERED A TAD IN THE WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA.
500MB RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER EASTERN ID. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. TUE IS THE LAST MAINLY CLEAR DAY AS CLOUDS AND A TROUGH JUST CLIPPING THE NORTH END OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND SPREAD A RISK OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH BEST CHANCE WED NIGHT.
Sustained north winds ahead of the high will promote wind chills in the -10 to -20 degree range, so have continued the wind chill advisory for areas that should see a period of -15 to -20 early Monday morning. Warmer, slightly more seasonable temperatures are expected for Tuesday when west southwest winds increase ahead of a clipper system that will dive into the Great Lakes.
422 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAT THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH MAY FALL SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
130 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
Dry and warmer weather mid-week, then a pattern change possible by the end of the week. in the NE quad of the upper low over the San Joaquin Vly. will rotate cyclonically around the quasi-stationary upper low on Mon. with the next wave of energy and subsidence working Wwd around the upper low to our south. the advsry winds should not last all day in the lower elevations (Valley) in particular. By Monday night and Tuesday, the low is forecast to eject eastward allowing ridging aloft to return to NorCal along with much weaker pressure gradients.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH WARMER AIR LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SHEARS OUT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHIFTING EAST AND CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW CONUS. WESTERN RIDGE NOSES INTO SW CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW SINKING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AND ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
ALL OTHER PLACES WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE TIME BEING. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD US. WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH IN PLACES. THE DURATION OF THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH SHORTER. BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE STILL LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS BUT FAR NORTHWEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE NORTH.
106 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONUS MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON WRN CONUS TROUGH RATHER THEN RECENT CENTRAL/ERN AXIS. WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS HOWEVER AND MORE NON-DENDRITIC SNOW WITH THE MAX LIFT BELOW -12C. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO SE IA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH WE GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE LOWEST 5KFT RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MOST GUIDANCE SHIFTS THE STRONG EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WEST A BIT AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
1134 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS VERY SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WAS NOW SOUTH OF EACH OF THE TAF SITES.
SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA WHERE NO SNOW COVER WILL COMBINE SUNNY SKIES. RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
119 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAT THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
322 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
455 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THIS AREA OF HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE WSR-88D DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TODAY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLDEST SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED BEST AND BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING SKIES EXISTS. THERE IS A APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS BROAD TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
LATE MONDAY A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AN UPPER LOW IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
427 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
356 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL IGNORE THE COOLER GFS/NAM GUIDANCE AND USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
835 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ALONG WITH COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT BI-SECTING THE CWA. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SNOW CEASES. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THE WIND AND PRECLUDE A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS MONDAY EVENING FALLS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH CALM WINDS TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO HOW STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
1154 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 AVIATION A NORTHERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO ON TUESDAY SENDING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT INTO MICHIGAN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS GENERALLY NORTH OF A GRAND RAPIDS TO BIG RAPIDS LINE. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING AND MENTION BLOWING SNOW.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY THEN TRACK EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS NOW IN PROGRESS OVER THE MEDFORD CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE RIDGES ABOVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THOSE AREAS WILL BE WARMER. BUT A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
308 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT.
CHECKING THE RECORD BOOK, THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 23 AT DODGE CITY IS A VERY COLD +5F, SO THAT OBVIOUSLY WON'T BE TOUCHED. NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AT CHA. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
High pressure aloft continues. A positively tilted upper level ridge of high pressure from off the Pacific coast into the northern Rockies will dominate the weather through Monday night. Warmer air moving into this area overnight, especially along the east slopes of the Rockies, may allow lows there to occur before midnight. Warm air advection precipitation may move over sub-freezing air in Blaine County Tuesday morning, so have a slight chance mention of freezing rain there.
/Issued 323 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ The persistent 500 mb ridge centered over New Mexico and the northerly flow around the western side of Tropical Storm Barry will provide subsidence across south Texas through the period. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night will be in the 70s, except for the lower 80s near the coast.
Interior NorCal remains under upper level southwest flow between high pressure centered over the four corners area and upper level troughing off the coast. This warming trend will be short-lived as the upper level trough moves into the Pacific NW and the high pressure pushes eastward.
936 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Relatively dry air mass over the region for this time of year should result in another night of unseasonably cooler temperatures. 02z temperatures and dewpoints were running a couple degrees warmer than they were this time last night, and ongoing forecast of temperatures Saturday morning bottoming out a few degrees warmer than this morning looks good.
Meanwhile, the coast will be cooler due to marine cloudiness. An upper-level high was positioned over CO this afternoon, while a broad trough continued over the NE Pacific. Northerly winds continue to slowly increase over the next few days, aided by a strengthening thermal trough over interior CA. Looking beyond the weekend, a persistent trough over the E Pacific will maintain a northerly wind regime for the rest of the coming week.
Mostly dry conditions through today with weak high pressure over the area. A trough will develop on Saturday with areas of morning drizzle and afternoon showers in the mountains.
Another round of moisture continues to move over the area today allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain north of the Mogollon Rim, and move generally northwestward. Storms are not expected to be efficient rainfall producers due to the high base, and significant dry air underneath. Hot temperatures at the lower elevations will also be a threat through the weekend. Models continue to show a trough from the west brushing Arizona.
826 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. High pressure ridge will build into the region tonight, bringing clearing skies and a diminishing breeze. Lows in the mid 50s across the northwest mountains to mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley will be very near seasonal norms. A mostly sunny and seasonable Saturday is expected across central Pa, as high pressure ridge remains over the region. Can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm working into Warren/Mckean counties by early evening in advance of a weak cold front approaching from the Grt Lks. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will drop southward across the area Saturday night and may generate a brief shower or storm across NW PA.
517 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Overview: The Tri-State area will be situated on the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge (over the Rockies) and northern periphery of an H3 ridge (over the Southern Plains), in weak W-NNW flow aloft. Forcing will be relegated to differential heating on the slopes of the CO Foothills/Palmer Divide, weak low-level convergence invof a broad thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies, and (perhaps) mesoscale features emanating from upstream convection.
654 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected into Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front.
605 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 19z/2pm surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Illinois. while a cold front extended from Lake Superior southwestward to South Dakota. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the KILX CWA through Saturday. Clear skies and light winds directly beneath the high will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s along/east of the I-57 corridor. The cold front will sag southward and stall during the day Saturday, with most model guidance suggesting scattered convection developing along the I-80 corridor by afternoon/evening.
Freezing levels are a very high 18k feet and the 500mb temperature is a very warm -1. A high degree of directional shear is also noted with storm relative helicity values in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere a very high 268m2/s2.
416 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure centered near the Ohio River will bring dry weather conditions today.
1154 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. High pressure ridge will build into the region tonight, bringing clearing skies and a diminishing breeze. Lows in the mid 50s across the northwest mountains to mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley will be very near seasonal norms. A mostly sunny and seasonable Saturday is expected across central Pa, as high pressure ridge remains over the region. Can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm working into Warren/Mckean counties by early evening in advance of a weak cold front approaching from the Grt Lks. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will drop southward across the area Saturday night and may generate a brief shower or storm across NW PA.
254 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. High pressure ridge will build into the region tonight, bringing clearing skies and a diminishing breeze. Lows in the mid 50s across the northwest mountains to mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley will be very near seasonal norms. A mostly sunny and seasonable Saturday is expected across central Pa, as high pressure ridge remains over the region. Can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm working into Warren/Mckean counties by early evening in advance of a weak cold front approaching from the Grt Lks. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will drop southward across the area Saturday night and may generate a brief shower or storm across NW PA.
1146 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Dry weather is expected into Saturday under high pressure. Minimal rain chances return with a Saturday night cold front. These rain chances should continue south of Interstate 70 Sunday, with high pressure returning dry weather to the rest of the region. Mainly clear skies are expected tonight under high pressure. Mainly clear skies should continue Saturday as the high moves east. A cold front will take its time moving from northwest to southeast, taking Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday evening to completely cross the region. The highest chances for rain will come Saturday evening along the I-80 corridor and Sunday afternoon south of the Mason-Dixon line.
A stalled front is sitting across the High PLains and draped north along the Laramie Range. As the lower portion of the atmosphere is relatively dry, strong to damaging winds will be the biggest threat for the High Plains, as will frequent lightning.
Persistent and seasonally typical Four-Corners upper level high pressure ridge will remain our dominant feature through Sunday night with dry and subsident northeast flow aloft.
301 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Broad upper ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies with Tropical Storm Barry just south of the southern LA coast. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Ohio Valley with a weak stationary front extending from southern MN into western Nebraska. Upper ridge isn't expected to move much through the weekend.
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. Any early morning valley fog will burn off rapidly with high pressure bringing a bright and very warm day, but with tolerable humidity. Most of the forecast area will remain dry overnight, but a weak cold front dropping south through the state could trigger a few showers or storms. The best chance will be over the higher elevations of the SW. Highs in the 80s to near 90 will be a few deg warmer than normal in most areas.