Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
250 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 09z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into central NE and cold front into southern ID. High winds associated with mountain wave activity has ended per trough moving east of the Black Hills with best pressure falls well east. Water vapour loop had upper trough racing across MT/western WY toward the CWA. Today, upper trough moves through with moderate 850-600mb frontogenetic forcing. Cold front moves through this morning with 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises behind it/modest low level cold air advection. HRRR suggests a late afternoon/early evening bump in winds as weak secondary push of colder air moves in which may bring near warning level winds across the higher Black Hills into southwest SD.
359 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 09z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into central NE and cold front into southern ID. High winds associated with mountain wave activity has ended per trough moving east of the Black Hills with best pressure falls well east. Water vapour loop had upper trough racing across MT/western WY toward the CWA. Today, upper trough moves through with moderate 850-600mb frontogenetic forcing. Cold front moves through this morning with 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises behind it/modest low level cold air advection. HRRR suggests a late afternoon/early evening bump in winds as weak secondary push of colder air moves in which may bring near warning level winds across the higher Black Hills into southwest SD.
729 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain and windy conditions are expected with a Sunday cold front. Some increase in high clouds is expected later this afternoon in the warm advection ahead of an approaching Central CONUS trough. The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, are progged to cross the region Sunday. Broad upper troughing and cold W-WNW flow aloft should maintain minimal rain/snow shower chances Sunday night.
High pressure moves into the Tennessee Valley to begin the period with cool northerly drainage flow sending temps into the upper 30s for most of North GA, still not bad for a November post frontal environment. Reinforcing high bridges north of the area across the Ohio Valley late tue into Tue night.
A cold front will move through the Plains this morning. The mixing winds will help push temps to near 50 today before the colder air sweeps in and H85 temps fall from +8C this morning to -8C this evening as the upper trough digs in. A few flurries may remain into Sunday morning on the back edge of the upper trough in far northeast SD and west central MN.
Patchy fog is possible across the higher elevations in western parts of the Hill Country early this morning. Models show some very light QPF which suggests patchy drizzle or very light rain early to mid morning especially along the Escarpment into the Hill Country due to orographic enhancement of the low level jet. The low clouds and fog will erode and mix out with any drizzle or light rain ending with weakening of the low level jet. An upper level trough over the Northern and Central Rockies will move out across the Plains tonight to the Great Lakes and Eastern States on Sunday.
A coastal trough in proximity to Brevard County has been instrumental in producing some light to moderate showers largely over the marine areas since the pre-dawn hours. Strong ridge and warmer than normal temps aloft should prevent any storms from developing, but should any persistent bands of showers form just along this boundary, then very localized 1-2 inches of rainfall is not out of the question across St.
A Southern Plains cold front will push into central Texas Saturday night, and then into deep South Texas and the RGV on Sunday. The front will begin pushing through early Sunday during the day, reaching the lower valley in the afternoon.
906 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Ridging over the area to continue while abundant low level moisture remains in place trapped under 4-5K inversion as seen in 12Z TBW sounding. Otherwise expect high pressure to build north of the area bringing northeast winds and another good shot of fog and low clouds Sunday morning.
508 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Decided to include a "Limited" threat area for fire danger conditions after the cold front's passage on Sunday, so the long- term section below was updated to reflect this decision. As the high pressure ridge slides off to the east, the winds will pick up through today to 10-12kts by this afternoon. Though cooler air is filtering in behind the front, by dawn, the boundary is just inside of the forecast area.
At the surface, high pressure continues to shift east into the western Atlantic and local winds shift to more southeasterly as a result. A trailing cold front surges southeast across the lower Mississippi River Valley and through the local area by late Sunday afternoon or evening. Weak moisture return in the low levels will allow surface dewpoints to climb back into the mid 60s tonight, so low temps will remain in the 60s for the most part areawide. Highs on Sunday will depend on the timing of the front, with areas across interior SE MS and SW AL topping out in the low 70s before the front pushes through and temps drop or hold steady.
After the passage of last night's cold front, breezy and showery conditions remain over much of western Montana and central Idaho this morning. Other areas across primarily western Montana have seen a mix of snow and freezing rain overnight. Locations with wet surfaces will likely see some ice develop as temperatures drop to just below freezing. Snow showers will gradually weaken through the morning, though the higher terrain will likely see periods of snow through the afternoon. As slightly warmer air aloft moves into the region, snow levels will begin to increase. This will lead to the potential of mixed precipitation in many valley locations, with some areas of freezing rain possible.
The first will be associated with the surface cold front that tracks eastward through the region roughly 11z to 14z Sunday. At the same time the surface pressure gradient tightens up as the low deepens to sub 980 mb across the UP and Southern Ontario leading to an increased risk for wind impacts. As temperatures fall below freezing. The instability looks less this evening so the VCTS wording was moved to later tonight when the cold front nears from the west.
VFR is expected to otherwise prevail today amid steady south winds, with greater CIG/VSBY restrictions possible after midnight tonight in association with an approaching cold front, which is progged to pass through the area near or just beyond this TAF forecast period. 24 Increasing low level moisture will lead to warmer and more humid conditions. The increase in moisture will also result in a warmer night tonight, with overnight lows between 64 and 70 degrees acrs the southern half of the area, and lows in the lower 60s acrs the Lakes region into cntl LA. A more robust upper level trough, currently over the intermountain West, will emerge over the cntl plains today and swing E-NE acrs the cntl CONUS through tonight. This will help push a rather strong cold front into the region late tonight into early Sunday.
SFC/LL high and weak zonal flow aloft set to break down later today as a weak warm front sets up just north of the area. Later tonight however, and upper trough will approach and that will push a sharp cold front into the MS river valley toward midnight, then across the mid-state through Sun morning. Behind this front, SFC/LL high pressure and dry air will take control the next bunch of days, while aloft our upper trough transition into a ridge by mid-week, followed by another incoming trough late week. A deep low pressure system currently gathering steam over the Great Plains will move quickly eastward, with mid-level ceilings developing by mid-day and also increasing surface winds. Winds will further increase throughout the evening, and we'll also experience LLWS as the low- level jet strengthens ahead of the front.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb high pressure remains centered over Florida as the next trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. With S to SSW flow, we are already hitting record high temperatures this afternoon in the low 90s. As the low pressure system moves eastward tonight, it will bring a cold front into South Texas Sunday morning. Daytime temperatures will be much cooler than Saturday, but still fairly warm in the lower 80s for most locations.
Lows are expected to fall into the lower 20's to the lower 30's given the light winds and dry air mass.
Rather dry conditions will persist tonight into Sunday as an upper level trough of low pressure kicks eastward through the Central Plains, giving way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. A colder and much drier air mass will spread into western Kansas tonight behind a cold front pushing southeastward into Oklahoma keeping precip chances out of the area through the remainder of the weekend. With the colder air moving in, look for temperatures well below freezing tonight in west central Kansas with lows in the 20s(F) to possibly the upper teens(F). Lows closer to the lower 30s(F) are likely toward south central Kansas. Expect highs generally up into the mid/upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F).
Patchy fog development will be possible over interior portions of the area late tonight into early Sunday morning, with lows in the low/mid 60s inland with upper 60s along the coast. VFR will prevail across the forecast area through midnight CST, followed by MVFR to IFR ceilings spreading from northwest to southeast through the remainder of the forecast period along a passing cold front. Southeasterly winds between 5-10 knots this afternoon will become south to southwesterly tonight, and then westerly Sunday morning as high pressure moves to the east of the region.
A deep low pressure system currently gathering steam over the Great Plains will move quickly eastward, with mid-level ceilings developing by mid-day and also increasing surface winds. Winds will further increase throughout the evening, and we'll also experience LLWS as the low- level jet strengthens ahead of the front.
1110 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Focus for today will be incoming low pressure system from the Plains. The low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast toward upper MI after midnight. Skies clear and winds subside Sunday night as high pressure builds in.
214 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 An Upper level trough over the region will continue to move east this afternoon, with an associated 45 to 50 kt 700 mb jet and 850 mb thermal ridge resulting in above normal temperatures. Thus, will maintain the High Wind Warning as-is, and given observations and trends, have elected to expand the Advisory eastward, with both still expiring by early this evening as the boundary layer decouples. The upper level trough will move eastward ushering in a cold front Sunday morning bringing cooler temps into the area. Low temps early tomorrow will range in the 30s to 40s with high temps staying the low 60s to 70s area wide.
Upper level westerly winds associated with an upper level High to our south will prevail. High temps will be in the low 80s.
Early afternoon temperatures range from the lower 70s where cloud cover has remained intact to the upper 80s where skies have generally cleared. A change in the weather pattern is in store early Sunday as a fairly stout cold front moves into the area. The hi-res models show the cold front should be through most of south central Texas by sunrise Sunday. Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures will follow with the passage of the front on Sunday.
At 500 mb, a strong east-west ridge axis is anchored over Central Florida. This indicates strong high pressure aloft.
Upper and surface ridging across the southern Appalahians will keep conditions dry and mild today. Will evaluate the high wind potential across the Mountains and Foothills for late tonight and Sunday. Ridging surface and aloft will keep conditions VFR through 06Z. /ISSUED 917 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020/ Upper and surface ridging across the southern Appalahians will keep conditions dry and mild today. Will evaluate the high wind potential across the Mountains and Foothills for late tonight and Sunday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 67 40 63 40 / 20 60 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 66 37 58 38 / 10 70 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 65 36 59 38 / 10 60 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 65 34 55 34 / 10 60 0 0 0 TN.
In addition, a cold front will bring SHRA and perhaps isolated TSRA after 09z.
An upper trough will move from the northern/central Plains east into the Midwest tonight, with associated cold front pushing south across our area. Winds will shift to the north with the cold frontal passage. Much cooler conditions are expected overnight with early Sunday morning lows 40-44 degrees across our area. Sunny but much cooler conditions are expected for Sunday. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Sunday night, the surface pressure gradient weakens, resulting in light winds, while conditions will be pretty dry with dewpoints down in the low 20s and clear skies. An upper level ridge across the region will bring quiet and warmer than normal weather through much of the week.
209 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Ridging to hold over the region through the weekend keeping the warm and humid conditions in place. A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes region Sunday and set up over the Eastern U.
1109 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Just some minor near term trend adjustments as fcst largely on track with tranquil ridge dominated regime today. High pressure moves into the Tennessee Valley to begin the period with cool northerly drainage flow sending temps into the upper 30s for most of North GA, still not bad for a November post frontal environment. Reinforcing high bridges north of the area across the Ohio Valley late tue into Tue night.
1043 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2020 09z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into central NE and cold front into southern ID. High winds associated with mountain wave activity has ended per trough moving east of the Black Hills with best pressure falls well east. Water vapour loop had upper trough racing across MT/western WY toward the CWA. Today, upper trough moves through with moderate 850-600mb frontogenetic forcing. Cold front moves through this morning with 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises behind it/modest low level cold air advection. HRRR suggests a late afternoon/early evening bump in winds as weak secondary push of colder air moves in which may bring near warning level winds across the higher Black Hills into southwest SD.
High temperatures well above normal, with highs in the lower 80s for many areas. Cold front moves throught he area tonight and winds will gradually shift to the northwest and then north by morning. Drier air mass in place even ahead of the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 40s. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Sunday night, the surface pressure gradient weakens, resulting in light winds, while conditions will be pretty dry with dewpoints down in the low 20s and clear skies. An upper level ridge across the region will bring quiet and warmer than normal weather through much of the week.
Otherwise the main feature to focus on will be the influence of an elongating cold front and aided upper trough forcing that will bring some chance pops of showers to mainly north GA Sunday morning into early afternoon. Conditions quickly scatter out and improve by afternoon Sunday as a more prolonged ridge starts to dominate.
Winds will remain breezy to windy through the night tonight, and it will be windy along and east of the Highway 83 corridor Sunday morning, but should see diminishing winds Sunday afternoon. A digging upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will result in downstream ridging across the western U.
/Issued 1109 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020/ Just some minor near term trend adjustments as fcst largely on track with tranquil ridge dominated regime today. High pressure moves into the Tennessee Valley to begin the period with cool northerly drainage flow sending temps into the upper 30s for most of North GA, still not bad for a November post frontal environment. Reinforcing high bridges north of the area across the Ohio Valley late tue into Tue night. Winds out of the east to SE late today 4-8 kts then shift SW to west after 14z Sunday and increase magnitudes near 10-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts as cold front pushes across area.
Areas of morning fog and low clouds are expected on Sunday with a slight chance of afternoon showers over ne Florida ahead of a cold front. High temperatures will reach the low/mid 80s Sunday afternoon.
The cold front over West Texas this morning with a low over KS will swing east overnight and should move through SETX early Sunday morning and into the coastal waters. Gusty northerly flow will quickly usher in much lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures.
The models have trended slower with the upper trough and as a result the stronger pressure rises and strong gusts implied by the RAP and HRRR are delayed a little. Southerly surface winds east of the trough have allowed for WAA and moisture advection, and has resulted in temperatures slowly rising overnight through the 40s. Recent CAM guidance has been aggressive in showing west to northwest wind gusts of 45-50 mph behind the surface cold front in the 23-03Z time frame. Northwest flow then takes hold for the beginning of the work week before mid-level ridging moves east and eventually flattens, resulting in nearly zonal flow over the area for most of the rest of the week.
259 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 High pressure building across the area with few scattered showers over the east coast this morning off the Atlantic with along the easterly breeze. The low-level moisture has proven to be enough combined with a lingering boundary lifting north to develop scattered showers. As we move into Sunday, this boundary should lift further north and a little bit of drier air in the low-levels will move across South Florida. A sharpening upper trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes into New England as downstream ridging in the mid-levels is displaced to our east.
An associated surface cold front was also analyzed through Central Nebraska extending south through the Texas Panhandle. Winds combined with the aforementioned warm air advection and dew points rising into the low 60s will preclude cooling potential with mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. The surging cold front is progged to move into the ArkLaMiss Delta during the early morning hours and push southeast through the area through the remainder of the morning. Cooler and drier air will quickly filter in behind the front with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s north to mid 70s south. Dew points falling into the low 30s to upper 20s will support low relative humidity values across much of the area, which when combined with gusty post-frontal winds will result in a limited threat for fire weather conditions.
The cold front over West Texas this afternoon will rapidly move southeast this evening and overnight, entering the Inland Southeast Texas counties just before daybreak, and spreading across the remainder of the area by noon. Behind the front, much cooler and drier air to follow for most of the upcoming week.
145 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 (Issued 145 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020) Tonight through Sunday night: Mid level trough swinging through will maximize DCVA along with lower level frontal convergence with north/south frontal boundary. Based on mixed layer from Bufkit soundings, DAVA, and cold air advection potential on the high side to reach advisory criteria with some gusts possibly making it to 50 mph.
237 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Upper trough pivoting into the central Plains this afternoon. As trough pulls away and winds begin to decouple, winds will come down rapidly toward sunset. Weak cold front will follow in the wake of this system with a shift to north winds around 04-06z. Low temps early Sunday morning near or below freezing on the Caprock with mid to upper 30s in the Rolling Plains. Strong NW upper flow over the central Rockies will result in quick surface lee troughing Sunday from eastern CO south along the TX/NM border and thus moderate gusty SW winds by afternoon esp over the NW South Plains/SW Panhandle. Sunny and slightly cooler day Sunday with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s under full insolation.
The higher elevations received roughly 8 to 14 inches of snowfall accumulations, while the lower elevations reported a quarter inch to one inch of rain totals in the past 24 hours.
1154 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain and windy conditions are expected with a Sunday cold front. Some increase in high clouds is expected later this afternoon in the warm advection ahead of an approaching Central CONUS trough. The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, are progged to cross the region Sunday. Broad upper troughing and cold W-WNW flow aloft should maintain minimal rain/snow shower chances Sunday night.
Cooler temperatures will follow the passage of this today's cold front, bringing us lows in the 30s and 40s tonight followed by highs in the 50s and lower 60s tomorrow.
This activity would likely shift east of the area by early evening, although expect additional development as the cold front enters northwest AR around 03-04Z.
Latest runs of the HRRR (18-19Z) are also suggesting development along the surface cold front towards 01-03Z. As cold air advection increases behind the cold front after 03Z, 1000-900 mb lapse rates increase to near 8. Strong westerly-northwesterly winds of 40-50 knots are expected to follow behind the cold front, and with the steepening low level lapse rates, expect wind gusts to surface for a period. Potential for rain showers increases next Saturday as deepening trough across the west creates the chance for warm air advection showers. A strong cold front will move through the terminals early in the prevailing period.
As we move into the beginning of the work-week, rising heights/increasing thickness will support moderating temperatures across the region as a mid/upper ridge builds across the Rockies. Breezy southerly winds and dry weather conditions are anticipated at the beginning of the period as a mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the central CONUS. Strong and gusty northwest winds will continue overnight, strongest before midnight, as a cold front continues slicing southeast through southeast Kansas. Strong and gusty northwest winds will persist into the evening hours while much drier air moves across the area in the wake of a cold front.
347 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Upper level low pressure trough bringing mid and high level clouds to the cwa along with some light rain to parts of central sd will move east into the evening. The main issue for the forecast for tonight will be the strengthening northwest winds across the east as the surface pressure gradient tightens up behind the upper trough and the caa affecting the depth of the mixing layer. Sunday should be a mostly sunny day with decreasing winds and with cooler highs in the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
Warm and humid conditions come to an abrupt end tonight/early Sunday as strong Pacific cold front sweeps through the region Sunday morning and should be off the coast by 7 or 8 am.
Coverage and snowfall rates have decreased across the northern and central Colorado mountains this afternoon in the wake of the mid- level trough which passed over the region earlier in the day. A ridge building over the West on Sunday night will bring an end to the showers in the evening. Expect colder overnight lows tonight with single digits expected in the higher valleys with teens and low 20s elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will be cooler than normal, but not by a lot. The ridge mentioned at the end of the short term discussion builds early in the coming week ahead of an eastward propagating mid-level Pacific trough.
Cold front currently moving out of front range of Rockies into the High Plains.