Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
535 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015 00Z TAF issuance VFR conditions to prevail following the passage of a cold front earlier this afternoon. A "cold front" (more of a wind shift) moved across the Permian Basin this morning and is moving thru the Trans Pecos this aftn.
951 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LAKE WATER COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BUT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY NEAR 30KTS NEAR SHORE.
LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICT THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO OKLAHOMA. AT THE LOWER LATITUDES. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. BROAD 1020 MB RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARDS TILL MIDNIGHT. BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX TOWARDS MORNING AS THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES CLOSE TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 88 DEGREES.
The 00 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front moving across Eastern Texas. Light southerly flow well ahead of the front across the Central and Eastern Gulf is returning some low level moisture to the region with dewpoints back into the low to mid 40s.
521 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH THE HIGH END OF THAT RANGE IN THE TYPICAL FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
MODELS SHOW LEE TROUGHING AND A WELL FORMED MTN WAVE OVERNIGHT. THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. LOW PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP SUPPORT PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF BROAD PACIFIC RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST SPREADING TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE COOLER SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
MIGHT GET SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06-09Z BUT FCSTSOUNDINGS SUPPORT JUST SOME CIRRUS. /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COAST HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DFW AT 2 PM AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES (BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT PRESENT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION) DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS SETX SUNDAY WITH A COOL START TO THE MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL. STILL ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. BUT IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.
/ISSUED 341 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ UNSEASONABLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT OCCURRING WITH FROPA.
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE REALLY DRY HERE AT HOME.
634 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 PRECIPITATION RETURNS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WNDS AND WK WARM ADVECTION JUST ABV THE SFC SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAMP/RUC NMBRS. WITH TEMPS ABV FREEZING LTL IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPD HOWEVER. RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CHOKE OFF SNOW AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST. WARMER AIR RETURNS TUES AS THE SW LLVL FLOW BRINGS THE 0C ISOTHERM AT 850MB BACK ACROSS OUR SE. BUT THE COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE TROF WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT TYS AND TRI DUE TO TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS GOOD TO GO WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL & LOWER LLVL RIDGES NOSING IN FROM THE SE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF SE TX DRY MONDAY AND AGAIN MOST OF TUE. AM A BIT CONCERNED LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GULF COULD INITIALLY KEEP BULK OF PRECIP WEST/NORTH OF SE TX TUE NIGHT AS THE DRY NAM12/CANADIAN ARE HINTING. NEXT CHANCES PRECIP ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN ON FRI AS THE NEXT WESTERN TROF APPROACHES.
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s, which is which is around 10-15 degrees warmer than average.
IT COULD HAVE GOTTEN WARMER. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL SPREAD OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
00Z NAM12 KEEPS THE BAND RIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE RAP WOULD HAVE THE BAND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. TONIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CREATING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RAIN TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS 925MB TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE LOWER LOUISIANA COAST MUCH OF THE DAY.
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTH.
Just some cirrus has been streaming through today with perhaps just a slight impact to the highs but has not hindered RH values from tanking. Ridging aloft will lose its grip by the middle of this upcoming week, allowing for a pattern change. This change will usher in cooler temps and chances for much needed rain, although confidence is not terribly high at this time that the forecast area will see much relief in terms of easing the dry ground conditions.
MODELS STILL TARGET THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WITH MOST OF THIS. TONIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CREATING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RAIN TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS 925MB TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
727 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH BRIEF CLEARING AND A DIMINISHING WIND. FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AS THE AS THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE. TO BETWEEN 30-32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
1029 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
835 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
925 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING MILD AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN COOL BUT DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS ESP NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THAT AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
520 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THAT AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE'LL ALSO SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. WE'LL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WILL LINGER. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
Very warm and dry weather is expected for this period as an upper level ridge moves across the region.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TAF PKG THIS EVENING AS WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACRS THE AREA. A WEAKENING TROF WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY WITH LT AND VRBL WINDS PREVAILING. LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES IN THE LOWER LVLS WHILE SOME MIDLVL CLOUDS SPREAD N FM THE GULF AND THIN CIRRUS STREAMS IN FM THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN LIKELY AS MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE BAJA WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SWING LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA AND PRODUCE A LIGHT E-NE FLOW 5-10 MPH. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY NE TONIGHT 10-12 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH PRESSES TO THE GULF COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD CENT FL AND ADJ ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.
WITH CONTINUED WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HAVE THEM DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. WHICH IS ACTUALLY JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT SEASONAL NORMAL HIGHS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY. AND EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER AS CAA BEGINS TO PUSH IN. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
COLD FRONT PASSED ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AROUND 4-5 PM AND IS NOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
933 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
702 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. THE THUMB, WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO 60. UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY EVOLVING TOWARD A CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS THE JET PRESENTLY SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACNW/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROPAGATES EAST WITH THE HELP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.
820 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
927 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
WILL INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. COLDER - BUT MORE SEASONABLE - AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. MOVING FROM BROAD RIDGING TO A MORE ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO HEAD NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS ROUTES. WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA SENDING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER LOW HANGING OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL OCCASIONALLY SPIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID-40S IN THE DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED REGIONS JUST OFF THE CAPROCK.
822 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
1051 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH BRIEF CLEARING AND A DIMINISHING WIND. FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND HAS DROPPED OFF MARKEDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE HIGH BUILDS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OFF TO THE NE. TO BETWEEN 30-32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS ROUTES. WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA SENDING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER LOW HANGING OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL OCCASIONALLY SPIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID-40S IN THE DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED REGIONS JUST OFF THE CAPROCK.
ALOFT THIS EVENING AN ELONGATED RIDGE. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FL. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A NORTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY DRY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTH FL COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK MON. WHILE ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LAYERS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
943 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CREATING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RAIN TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS 925MB TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
1049 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND FORCING ITS AXIS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN SE OREGON AND WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF TODAY/S HIGHS IN SW IDAHO ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH TO OUR NRN-MOST ZONES BUT LIGHT PCPN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST- CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. FRONTAL BAND JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL COME IN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
733 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LIGHT SEA BREEZES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVERS FURTHER INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS 850 MB RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR AREA.
737 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAKENING TROF WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY WITH LT AND VRBL WINDS PREVAILING. LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES IN THE LOWER LVLS WHILE SOME MIDLVL CLOUDS SPREAD N FM THE GULF AND THIN CIRRUS STREAMS IN FM THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN LIKELY AS MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE BAJA WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME SITES GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE EVEN WARMER IF NOT FOR A DENSE CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SPILLING SE OVER THE AREA. BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CANADA. WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOLER AIR WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO WELL INTO THE 80S FAR SOUTH. AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.
729 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING MILD AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN COOL BUT DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW DUE IN MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS ESP NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
1004 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, dry, cold front, oriented east to west, slowly approaching Albany and Dothan. The airmass wasn't much cooler behind the front, though it was considerable drier and there was a wind shift.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NOW FINALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
THIS HAS HELPED TO BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES THUS FAR INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AS OF THIS WRITING. WHILE AN ABNORMALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING BETWEEN THIS LOW AND UPPER RIDGING OVER CUBA WAS BEING SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA. AS A PASSING TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IS IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS COULD NEAR 80 EITHER DAY. THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE BAJA REGION SHOULD START MOVING TO THE NE AND SLOWLY FILLING AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE VALLEY FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS GOOD TO GO WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
617 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 Very warm and dry weather is expected for this period as an upper level ridge moves across the region.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING CONTROLLING THE PATTERN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
1144 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS INCREASED CLOUDS.
THERE IS STILL SOME REMNANT OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST HOWEVER AND ASSUMING WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE CLEARING TREND FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ BROAD CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD INTO THE REGION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
1207 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY.
1149 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. THE THUMB, WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO 60. UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY EVOLVING TOWARD A CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS THE JET PRESENTLY SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACNW/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROPAGATES EAST WITH THE HELP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.