Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The showers will be associated with a weak cold front draped across central Nebraska. Clouds and rain across the southeast will keep overnight lows in the upper 60s, the exception being across Sheridan and western Cherry counties where clouds will clear out and lows could drop into the low 60s. Highs along and south of the I-80 corridor will be slightly warmer in the low 90s.
430 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Western Atlantic high pressure ridge will continue to be the main driver of South Florida weather through the week. Hi-res models then suggest initial surge of moisture, associated with weak disturbance and the outermost influence/inverted trough of the strong tropical disturbance wave approaching Jamaica, approaching later this evening.
250 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 It's another typically hot and muggy summer afternoon across the Mid State, with temperatures ranging from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough scoots across southern portions of the area Today. Upper level ridging noses into the area by midweek.
A ridge aloft continues to remain in place this afternoon suppressing convection somewhat although isolated storms have developed along the coast. At the surface, the sub- tropical ridge extends from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast which is keeping the light but generally onshore moist flow in place. Into mid week the mid to upper lvl ridge will slip west allowing a higher chance of storms during the afternoon. High pressure is expected to remain in place over the northern gulf through the week which will keep winds light. Thunderstorm chances will increase somewhat in the second half of the week as the upper ridge shifts west.
348 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level high pressure ridge centered over SE Texas will drift westward over the next several days. The ridge will keep hot and mainly dry conditions across the area through the end of the work week. However, as the center of the high works its way slightly west of the area, a deep layer easterly flow may help the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the latter part of the week.
Upper level ridging should suppress cu across much of our region on Tuesday but did make mention of a growing cu field at the LFK/MLU/ELD and SHV terminal locations. /issued 404 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Upper level ridge axis firmly anchored across the region today has resulted in strong subsidence and soaring temperatures in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. The ridge has kept a lid on convection thus far today with only a few stray showers along the MS delta.
Aloft a weak upper level trof was over IL/IN while a strong upper level trof/low was over Saskatchewan and into MT/ND. Airmass gets more unstable by late Tue afternoon with CAPES rising above 2000 j/kg over western IL as warm front moves northeast into central IL. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 80s with warmest readings sw CWA where warm front goes through sooner and heat indices rise to 95- 100F Tue afternoon SW CWA.
302 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Bermuda high pressure will maintain humid conditions across the area through midweek, sparking scattered thunderstorms.
255 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through most of Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.
641 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will maintain generally VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Nonetheless, lake enhanced high pressure favoring inland flux of marine air will provide low-level convergence sufficient for some shower development. Quiet weather persists through Tuesday with upper ridge transiting the area.
418 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A weak upper level disturbance will push south of the area this evening as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes.
256 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A persistent upper level low pressure system will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and this evening, some with brief heavy rain.
404 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Upper level ridge axis firmly anchored across the region today has resulted in strong subsidence and soaring temperatures in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. The ridge has kept a lid on convection thus far today with only a few stray showers along the MS delta.
That being said, the HRRR/HRRRx/parallel HRRR is showing convection moving in late tonight ahead of an approaching inverted trough over Chihuahua.
241 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Large H5 ridge dominating the southern US is currently centered roughly over far East Texas. Models are consistent with continuing to slighlty shift the ridge westward to central Texas, keeping the strong and subsident weather regime in place for the state. With no moisture changes forecast with the ridge during the next 36 hours, will continue with the persistent forecast of hot and more hot. The lack of moisture will also result in a lack of rainfall, with only a few clouds able to bubble up under the ridge right along the seabreeze tomorrow.
150 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2016 The persistent ridge of high pressure will slowly weaken this week and then will be replaced by a trough of low pressure by the end of the week. Broad ridging over the central part of the southern CONUS is continuing to lose it's strangle hold on central California and is expected to begin moving further eastward as a more progressive pattern takes shape. With this transition the southern stream of moisture moving along the western periphery of the high will also move further eastward.
Nonetheless, lake enhanced high pressure favoring inland flux of marine air will provide low-level convergence sufficient for some shower development. Quiet weather persists through Tuesday with upper ridge transiting the area.
245 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Skies are partly to mostly sunny with temperatures averaging in the lower 90s along the island chain. Surface wise, a slowly strengthening Western Atlantic ridge is anchored across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with a vigorous tropical wave aligned from the Central Hispaniola southward into the Caribbean Sea.
Dry southwesterly flow aloft over our CWA ahead of approaching upper low currently located 50/135 in the north Pacific. The upper low will move inland across Washington Tuesday and into northern Idaho Tuesday night. Dry surface cold front will pass through eastern Oregon Tuesday afternoon and southwestern Idaho Tuesday evening.
There is a weak upper low above 300mb centered over the region but this feature will have little impact with respect to precipitation as strong subsidence prevails beneath the 500mb ridging.
1120 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2016 Current surface map shows cold front across northern Wyoming into western North Dakota. Weak high pressure settles in over the area Monday night.
1030 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2017 Weak upper ridging covers much of the CONUS, with a low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest. Further south, low level moisture combined with a lack of mid level cloudiness may result in areas of low stratus and some freezing fog across the South Dakota plains. Cold air will continue to push into the region, as arctic high pressure slides into southern Alberta. Predicting up to 4 inches with this band, with the higher amounts across the southern Hills and southwestern SD.
and Wednesday Although it has taken a bit to saturate, freezing drizzle has finally started across central Wisconsin during the early morning hours with weak isentropic lift ahead of a low pressure system passing to our south during the daytime hours. Although moisture and lift will be fairly limited, as evidenced by the 00Z KGRB RAOB sounding, there should be enough moisture to produce slick surfaces given below freezing road temperatures and the liquid precipitation given the lack of deep moisture across much of the cwa today. The current headlines for freezing rain/drizzle continues to be appropriate until later today when road temperatures warm above freezing, thus changing the precipitation type to mainly liquid. However model soundings and METAR observations show freezing drizzle just north of the current advisory.
SPC meso analysis shows impressive elevated CAPES around 500-700J/KG These storms are along and just north of the sfc warm front. The biggest concern is across Marquette/Green Lake/Columbia, Sauk and far western Fond du Lac counties for the potential of freezing rain. We have a freezing rain advisory in effect through noon, but will be dropping Sheboygan from the advisory due to warmer air there. Air temps right now are at the freezing mark with road surface temperatures estimated at 32F as well in the adv area. So, the freezing rain threat should be during a fairly short window early this morning. Fairly confident the fog will lift in a widespread way by late morning as the low scoots by to the southeast and we get into some better flow.
Additional precipitation through the day Tuesday as warm frontal feature works north is expected to exacerbate water issues across the region. Temperatures remaining above freezing last night in the Cassia County area and near Raft River contributed to runoff and flooding in low lying areas. Should be slow to reverse the trend back to freezing. Thus a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Lower Snake Plain and Caribou Highlands until Tuesday evening when the second round of precipitation has a chance to run it's course.
At the same time, a cold front poised along the NE/SD border will begin to push southward into at least northeast NE tonight, then across the forecast area on Tuesday. The Highres ARW/NMM runs suggest a fairly narrow corridor about 100 miles wide for the snow swath, with a fairly tight gradient on both the north and south sides, thus any shift, even by 25 or 50 miles, could have a large impact on snow totals, thus forecast confidence is somewhat lower on the latitude. High pressure moves in Wednesday night, which should allow temps to drop into the single digits where the fresh snow occurs, but still in the teens along the NE/SD border.
The influx of this jet stream energy into the Lower Mississippi Valley will manifest in the jet's left exit region enhancing powerful thunderstorm development over at least the eastern half of the region tomorrow, mainly in the mid morning through early afternoon hours. /BB/ Prior discussion below: Abnormally warm temperatures have once again materialized over the area and spread further north where the warm front moved through this morning.
300 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 High temperatures will increase to well above normal through Wednesday with high pressure off the Southeast U. An approaching cold front will bring the risk for showers and thunderstorms.
Initial rain today will be focused along the northward surging warm front extending from Plains-to-Great Lakes low pressure. Used the high res model template to reconstruct POPs for the near term period given the superior performance overnight. In short, categorical showers, with possible elevated thunder, are expected to give way to a break/reduction as the warm front develops north of the area. Coverage and intensity should reescalate as the systems cold front is pulled into the area this evening.
Warmer air is expected to start moving into the area by midnight and snow levels will gradually lift overnight and Tuesday morning to above pass levels.
The cooling will be in response to a strong short wave moving out of north Texas this morning into the base of the larger upper trough that has been over the conus for several days. Fog or a low level cloud deck should develop tonight and Wed night before a cold front moves through.
Snowfall rates will be up to an inch an hour however with the quick moving nature of the system will generally see another 1 to 3 inches with the higher values along and north of HWY 2 line, in the area of the ongoing winter weather advisory.
401 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Currently - A broad ridge axis extends from the North Atlantic across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast - Winds will continue to trend downwards today and tonight and veer further southeast to south as the ridge axis settles further southward across the Keys. Weak low level confluence along with a broad trough moving across the area aloft will support at least isolated showers today into tonight. Rain chances will taper off through the night as the trough aloft and moisture shifts east of our area and zonal flow predominates.
1053 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Surface meso low pressure centered just to the south of Sioux Falls associated with a synoptic low across western Kansas. Northwesterly flow behind this low will gradually spread across the area tonight. May see stratus become deep enough that there may be a little freezing drizzle across southwest Minnesota, but not much in the way of lift in the saturated layer. In addition, winds increase out of the northwest attempting to dry out the layer, so only left slight chance of freezing drizzle in Southwest Minnesota mainly east of the Buffalo Ridge.
321 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Regional obs this morning showing a cold front situated from about cntrl MN to n-cntrl Neb to nern WY.
/issued 745 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017/ No major changes this evening as high pressure remains in control with lighter easterly flow across the region. Isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out as the trough gradually moves closer to the Florida peninsula. Dry conditions return Wednesday as the trough exits into the Atlantic waters.
Less cloud cover tonight and drier air will allow low temperatures to fall a few degrees cooler and will bring more areas of fog to the region overnight.
The dew points are running a little warmer than forecast and will limit the overnight lows. We have bumped most zones a category or so for the lows.
118 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 A southerly flow will continue through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front and high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast. The cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night. Another cold front will move through the area Wednesday night.
This feature has allowed for persistent east and southeast flow in the lower levels, as noted in the 00Z MFL sounding.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s tonight and then rise into the 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday afternoon. Highs for Wednesday are uncertain with the ECMWF having lower highs in the lower 40s and the GFS showing 50s and 60s.
A rainy and, at times, stormy Tuesday is expected with temperatures holding fairly steady in the low to mid 60s. Central KY and southern IN are squarely within the warm sector of a deepening mid-latitude cyclone. Increasing mid and upper level forcing is interacting with deep moisture along the pre-frontal trough, and regional radar shows two areas of organized convection pushing east through the mid- Mississippi Valley.
330 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Record high temperatures could be broken today across the Ark-La- Tex region due to compressional warming ahead of another short wave trough. Expect temperatures in the low 80s today which for many locations could beat or set record highs for previous years today. Late this evening all showers will be east of the area with clearing skies and overnight temperatures in the low 50s to mid 40s. Wednesday, winds turn southerly once again ahead of the next approaching cold front moving out of the Southern Plains. Temperatures ahead of the front will soar due to compressional warming with daytime temperatures in the low 80s to upper 70s across the region.
245 AM MST Tue Feb 7 2017 Warmer than average temperatures, for the most part, are expected into the middle of the week along with mostly dry conditions. The upper trough currently moving through the region continues eastward across the plains today with zonal flow aloft becoming more amplified by Wednesday as a ridge builds over the western U. and a series of fast moving short wave troughs moves across the high plains mainly north of the forecast area through the middle of the week. As a result, a backdoor cold front pushes from northeast to southwest across the forecast area by late this afternoon. Temperatures over the eastern sections of the forecast area on Wednesday will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than today with highs in the lower 40s as the cooler area of high pressure pushes deeper into the plains states.
926 PM PST Mon Feb 6 2017 A weak trough will continue periods of light rain over and west of the mountains through Tuesday.
Initial rain will be focused along the northward surging warm front of the system, with a possible break on Tuesday before the cold front sweeps the Upper Ohio Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
Meanwhile, low pressure will move from the north central US to the northern Great Lakes Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the Mississippi Valley. System clears the area with high pressure moving in behind it bringing in some cooler and much drier conditions. cooler only brings us down to seasonal norms at best and no real cold shot of air in the offing for the extended.
In the upper levels a trough will approach the region today moving through the Lower Mississippi River Valley and into the Southeast this evening. At the surface a low is moving into the Great Lakes Region with a cold front moving through the Ohio River Valley. This front will not make it this far south but the aforementioned trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon and evening hours.
Temps and dew points south of the warm front and low have climbed in the lower to middle 50s. Outside of the storms, abundant low level moisture and convergence ahead of the low has led to widespread dense fog. Main cold front extends roughly from s MN to central NE early this am, with temps plummeting into the teens and single digits over the Dakotas into n MN. Dry with windy conditions this evening as the arctic front moves into the Ohio Valley and high pressure builds into the Midwest.
1059 PM MST Mon Feb 6 2017 Updated this evening forecast to all the High Wind Warning to expire across northern Carbon and Albany counties. so will leave the High Wind Warning as is for Converse county southward to the central and southern Laramie Range. Expect this snow to become more widespread in the mountains and the lower valleys after midnight. Another concern is Bordeaux with the position of the surface trof. The models are showing this trof hanging over the area through the early evening, but things may kick up a bit once the subsidence starts moving in and shifts the trof to the east. The main question will be where the highest snowfall amounts will be.
(Wednesday through Tuesday) Weak upper level high pressure ridge will continue across the Southern Plains for the remainder of the week, keeping temperatures above normal.
107 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Low pressure moving to the Great Lakes will bring widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. Rain showers will change to snow showers Wednesday when colder air is forecast to filter in behind the low.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicating trough digging southeast across Kansas and Oklahoma this morning. Leftover showers will linger past midnight before tapering off before morning as middle level trough axis shifts east of the area and dry air aloft begins to move into the area.
Across the NE zones, a dry cold front will usher in a cooler N/NE wind shift this afternoon, with the frontal wind shift along a Dighton-St. Highs for Wednesday are uncertain with the ECMWF having lower highs in the lower 40s and the GFS showing 50s and 60s.
Satellite and observation trends show the warm front centered west to southeast just south of the I 70 corridor. Further north of the warm front towards north central Kansas, the fog thickness has remained with dewpoint and temp depressions near 0. This has kept highs cooler in the upper 40s, while middle to upper 50s are observed elsewhere. As the upper trough lifts eastward overnight, residual low level moisture on the backside of the departing low may linger the low stratus and patchy fog through sunrise Tuesday. RH values at peak mixing down to the lower 30 percentile. Wednesday night bodes a little cooler with lows in the teens as the center of the high moves into the northern CWA by sunrise.
I have gone with a dense fog advisory for the southeast 1/2 or so, continuing through the rough time frame of the cold front tomorrow morning. Tuesday night and Wednesday: Operational models fairly consistent with showing a frontogenesis band of light snow developing along the leading edge of a strong cold front. Highs should be in the lower 20s along Highway 20 to the lower 30s far south.
345 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Upper trough moving across Central plains this morning as high pressure builds in from the west.
Thunderstorm development began around 04z and was largely tied to the higher terrain of the Ozarks and Ouachitas in western and norhtwestern Arkansas. Analysis of surface data indicates the warm front has reached a line from just south of Searcy, to near Salem. A cold front will approach late in the period, but not in time to affect temperatures on Wednesday.
The dew points are running a little warmer than forecast and will limit the overnight lows. We have bumped most zones a category or so for the lows. Any sct convection should be E of the area terminals after 15Z Tuesday, with dry air entraining E beneath the trough quickly eroding any MVFR cigs by midday. This system will help nudge a dry line followed by a weak cold front into the area. this boundary will dissipate and await another in a series of disturbances moving through the base of a broad trough of low pressure across the central and eastern sections of the country.
For Tuesday winds remain from the west and southwest around 10 mph through the morning then shift to the begin to veer to the northwest by noon then variable (north/northeast across the east with south and southwest across the west and south) as a cold front starts to back into the area. as stronger surface ridging pushes south from the northern Plains. amplifying H5/H7 ridge works east of the Rockies during this time.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT GIVING THE REGION MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
854 PM MST SUN MAY 8 2016 SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINS UNSETTLED THIS EVENING DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE LAST WEEK/THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER. THESE FEATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE BRUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS PACIFIC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE WEST. ONCE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
TTU WRF and the latest HRRR showed this nicely, and indicate that the storms should continue to increase in coverage through the evening hours, with perhaps another round developing after 06Z as the cold front plows into the area.
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
/ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE IS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE QUESTION IS WILL MID LEVEL RIDGING HANG AROUND ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.