Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Could see some breaks in the low level cloud cover for the early evening hours, but highly pessimistic that all the low level cloudiness will scour out completely as the surface flow shifts back to the E-SE. This upper low will make very slow progress across the srn plains, with the upper low becoming vertically stacked tue night across OK. This will keep most of the forecast area on the north side of the low, with abundant moisture wrapping northeast into most of the area, with the heaviest showers expected to be across most of southern Kansas.
Frontal boundary to linger along the interstate 20 corridor through Tuesday night before lifting up as a warm front.
256 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low pressure will track across southern New England before exiting the coast this evening.
Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a low pressure system starts to exit the area to the east.
105 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Main changes for early PM update are adjusting further sky cover as the edges of the low cloud deck begin to erode/retreat due to surface heating. Do see a potential for expanding the end across portions of northeast ND where temps have been just above freezing and some snow melt will add to the low level moisture. Cirrus is moving over the FA now and is restricting the ability to see most of the low clouds, so not able to get a good look at the fog. Models show this half of the FA seeing more sun today, and thus, warmer temps. Upper level split flow pattern continues with our area remaining under the northern stream while several upper lows move through the southern stream across the central and southern CONUS.
A cold front is noted across Central Texas with a band of MVFR cigs ahead of the front.
A low pressure center will move southeast across Arizona through Tuesday with winds, clouds, showers and thunderstorms.
Warm front was located just south of I-70, and the showers north of it have been devoid of lightning activity as a result. Temperatures most areas should still reach the lower 60s, with some upper 50s north of I-74 where there will be some residual cooler air from the flow off of Lake Michigan.
631 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 A series of weak low pressure systems from Southern Quebec will move east crossing just south of the region tonight through Tuesday night.
High pressure will build briefly this afternoon bringing drier weather conditions through Tuesday.
353 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 The chance for showers will exist into this evening as low pressure drifts by to the south.
228 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week.
May maintain upper trof/instability shower chance or slight chance, esp east, overnight however. After tonight, Tuesday offers a pause, with the upper ridge nudging across the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys.
But with this early convection, the severe weather forecast gets more complicated with the potential of the early convection stabilizing the airmass in some areas, or potentially slowing the northward advance of the warm front. But regardless on some of the specific evolution, storms will likely become more widespread during the day with the approach of the primary longwave trough.
Shear remains weak, especially in the low levels, and LCL heights are relatively high so any tornado threat will remain isolated to the strongest storms at best. /TW/ Tuesday Night through Monday: The active weather pattern will continue through this work week and the upcoming weekend as a parade of upper lows dig into the Desert Southwest and move east across the country.
Next upper trough is now moving onto the coast. The Ecmwf looks to be doing a little better with the jet associated with the incoming upper trough. They did not the incoming trough sharp/deep enough and were too far east with the lower heights. This has helped to dry out the low levels. Made only a slight adjustment to cooler for the high temperatures. Considering this recent trend and collaboration with neighbors, have slowed down the arrival of the higher pops until later tonight. upper jet continues to affect the northwest half of the area during the morning then pivots to over the western half as the upper low approaches. Model soundings for late tonight are warmer, and am thinking now that the phase should stay liquid which matches up my neighbors.
600 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low pressure will track across southern New England before exiting the coast this evening.
At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), Latest satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm, details the center of 1025 mb center of surface ridging near 37 North 60 West.
with weaker storms driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. A long wave trough has moved out to the east and a long wave ridge is now building into the west coast. The ridge will bring dry and warmer weather to the area Monday night into Tuesday.
The trough slides quickly to the east this evening replaced briefly by upper level ridging Tuesday.
A low pressure system will bring a chance of showers tonight through Tuesday night, mainly northeast of Tucson. This system will also result in strong and gusty winds Tuesday along with cooler temperatures.
At the surface, a weakening area of low pressure will move northeastward through the mid-Mississippi Valley region, and a broad area of high pressure will remain in place to our east.
219 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Latest analysis shows and upper ridge over the central CONUS and the Canadian prairie provinces with an upper trough over the western CONUS and British Columbia. It is this upper trough that will affect the weather over the forecast area over the next few days.
344 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 A series of weak low pressure systems from Southern Quebec will move east crossing just south of the region tonight through Tuesday night.
Weak ridging aloft this afternoon will head east overnight as a strong upper low dives quickly southeastward toward west Texas tomorrow. in the 1-3 pm time frame, with another round of storms Tuesday night as the main upper low moves east across the Panhandle. 08 (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Tomorrow night will see an upper low over northeast New Mexico moving southeast over the Panhandle with the associated trough axis extending from the upper low to the Texas Big Bend region.
427 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
Dry downslope flow has already begun to initiate on the backside of a weak surface trof over eastern Montana. Upslope flow deepens and freezing levels will fall to around 7 kft over the Bighorns and Beartooths as cold air advects into the region.
435 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Brisk cold front exited our CWA shortly after 3 AM ahead of sustained northeast winds measured as high as 39 mph in Friona.
Upper trough axis will finally sweep through the region today. Short range model output in decent agreement with progressively shifting the upper trough eastward today into tonight. In the wake of the trough an area of high pressure will spread over the region, finally delivering a drier and cooler airmass. Closer to the main trough axis, there is a larger swath of showers and embedded thunder moving to the east.
The air mass will warm and dry tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds aloft. To the west, an upper level jet will be moving over the West Coast Saturday as a low pressure trof moves on shore. This trof will move into the Pacific Northwest and much cooler air aloft will be crossing the Rockies late Saturday night and Sunday.
401 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure centered over the region this morning will move east today. A strong cold front will approach Saturday night and cross the region on Sunday.
637 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through tonight. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Sunday and move through the area Sunday night.
Still, that hasn't exactly stopped additional showers from developing the past few hours in advance of an approaching cold front a sharp upper trough aloft, with those expected to exit into central Wisconsin a few hours after sunrise. Increasingly anticyclonic flow later today should shut those down quickly, as broad ridging builds from the Plains into much of the Miss River valley through Sunday. Fog may be a concern across some of the typical river valleys tonight, but farther south center of the ridge axis suggests enough flow just off the deck to likely preclude any major valley fog up and down the Miss River channel.
303 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Fairly straight forward forecast today as high pressure remains centered across the Central Plains. With dry atmosphere and good mixing conditions, have sided closer towards warmer guidance, but with 0 standard deviation did not stray far from consensus. Tonight will see southerly winds increase as high pressure slides to the east. Lows will have a strong elevation component, and kept places that are more exposed along the Buffalo Ridge more mild.
301 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The leading edge of thunderstorms associated with the cold front has moved south of the Red River leaving light rain for several hours behind it.
A mid level low over SE TX is progged to merge with a trough that is tracking from the NW today. This trough is expected to bring a weak cold front into S central TX today. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a coastal trough is expected to develop which will provide low level moisture convergence. The higher chc pops then shift southward across the western CWA in response to the best low level convergence setting up along the Rio Grande. Mx temps are expected to be slightly cooler by Sunday but this is due to increased precip/cloud cover and not cold air advection as the cold front will be weak and greatly modified by the time it reaches S TX.
A cold front bisecting central and southwest Kansas is progged to move south and east becoming a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening. This should support scattered to numerous storms developing with convergence along the southward advancing cold front late this afternoon and evening. This will support torrential rainfall once again but the front is expected to be progressive limiting the duration of the heaviest rain with the highest amounts in the 1-3" range expected across mainly southeast KS. A ridge of high pressure will bring light winds and sunny conditions.
326 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Water vapor loops shows upper trough moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. Mostly sunny skies, cooler temperatures and a drier airmass will make for a great Saturday with highs mainly in the mid 70s. High pressure ridge will be across eastern KS this evening with light winds and mostly clear skies. As the high moves off to the east/southeast tonight, southerly winds should begin to pick up over north central KS. However, with the movement of the high, and an otherwise pretty dry airmass, temporal window for dense fog formation should be relatively small.
Rain coverage should diminish with the passage of the front north to south but some additional showers could redevelop behind the front as drier air lags in north Texas and an upper level low supports storms across the upper-Texas coast that could make it into the coastal plains.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico and the middle to upper Texas Coast. A mid level height center over the Southeast United States is supporting high pressure over the north Gulf Coast. A short wave trough is digging into the southern plains with a cold front and high pressure upstream. The plains cold front will move into Central Texas today, cutting off lower pressure over North Central Mexico. That and high pressure over the North Gulf Coast will allow southeast winds to shift to east this afternoon. a sea breeze, also developing over the lower valley by afternoon.
115 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure will extend across the area today.
One more hot and dry day is on tap today before a pattern shift toward cooler conditions arrives on Sunday. Upper ridging will be in place for one more day, though rather flat. West to east pressure gradients will tighten substantially today as a dry cold front approaches from the north. Tomorrow will feature a 10 to 15 degree drop in temperatures, courtesy of the aforementioned cold front. One exception to this will be the Brookings area at the coast where northeast downsloping winds in the low levels will likely push temperatures up some.
/Issued 612 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ North to northeast winds are expected to pick up into the 25 to 30 knot range with higher gusts at all TAF sites by around 03z behind a cold front. /Issued 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ Winds across the northwestern zones have remained out of a northerly direction over the course of the day Today with the main push of the cold front still over Kansas. Storm chances drop off quickly as the cold front pushes south of the area.
236 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Hot high pressure will continue over the region today.
655 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region again today ahead of a cold front that will usher in cooler and drier air for the second half of the weekend. It will remain humid into early afternoon but once the cold front passes and winds become northwest. Highs today will range from the middle 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Attention now shifts to pcpn chances today as main northern stream trough approaches and pushes surface cold front through the area. Main cold front then follows early this afternoon with additional development of shra/tsra along it. Broad area of high pressure to move in Sunday with much drier and cooler air.
1252 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 An upper level trough is currently moving across the plains this afternoon. A cold front is located across central Iowa across western Nebraska into southwestern Kansas this afternoon. As the trough continues to dive south the front will continue to move to the southeast towards the area later this evening then through the area tonight into early Saturday morning. As the cold front starts to move into the area storms will develop across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri and spread east and southeast into the area. Deep layer shear will increase across the region with the approach of the upper level trough. Showers and a few storms will likely linger for a few hours behind the front as the 850mb front and upper level trough lag the surface front some overnight.
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Currently, a cold front is pushing southward courtesy of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and has gotten to the northern Permian Basin. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler with highs today only expected to get to the 70s across much of the area. After cooler temperatures tonight, high temperatures tomorrow will rebound into the 80s across most places. Rain and thunderstorm chances Sunday will be south and west of the Pecos River mostly along the higher terrain where the front may be lingering still.
427 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 (Today and Tonight) Showers and thunderstorms were affecting areas along and north of Interstate 20 as of 330AM this morning, as a cold front/outflow boundary was quickly moving south through the Big Country. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible behind the front due to lifting of warm, humid air over the top of the cooler air mass. Temperatures both today and tonight will be much cooler than the past few days with highs ranging from the mid 70s along and north of the I-20 corridor to the mid 80s along and south of I-10.
356 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Cold front has cleared the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with drier air moving in this morning. Much cooler conditions expected today with highs in the mid- to upper-80s.
430 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 A cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build in for the early part of the week.
528 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The short term concerns remain timing of upper trough and associated showers over eastern cwa today. Water vapor imagery showing upper trough moving through central MN this morning. High pressure ridge drops southeast over the area during the night with some pressure gradient developing on the backside of the high into the west late. with coolest reading found into west central WI closer to the ridge axis and light winds.
A cold front will be moving in late in the period.
Today Through Sunday Night Regional surface observations show a cold front moving across northwest Arkansas. The cold front will continue moving slowly southeast across the state today. Mostly clear skies tonight with much drier air in place will allow lows to fall 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Low-level high pressure will build in behind the front promoting mostly sunny skies on Sunday. The cooler and drier air mass in place behind the cold front will lead to a beautiful day across Arkansas with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1225 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Focus is on the progression of the cold frontal boundary today and the associated convection. The surface cold frontal boundary was located from KSUX to KGRI to KGCK at 18Z this afternoon with pressure rises of 1 to 3mb behind the boundary and with post frontal wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. The pattern becomes more zonal by Sunday as another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
A dry and stable West- Northwest flow aloft will result in clear skies, light winds, and warmer temperatures today. An upper trough in Western Canada will enter the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain Region on Sunday. A dry cold front ahead of the trough will move rapidly from north to south across the area Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler behind the front, including Burns, Baker City, and McCall.
315 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through tonight. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Sunday and move through the area Sunday night.
1126 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper trough and weak surface cold front will pass through the area tonight. The flow aloft will stay northwesterly through Saturday night, but the upper ridge with rest over the Big Bend area. A combination of return flow behind the front and circulation around the high center will begin drawing moisture north over AZ toward the area Saturday night.
308 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 At 3 am under mostly clr skies, temps arnd the cwa were ranging from the mid 60s in NE AL to the low 70s over NW AL. The next weather maker for the TN valley is an upper trof and associated cdfnt now over the central plains/midwest.
351 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 A large upper level trough axis will slowly move east across the area today. with a ridge axis building over the area tonight and Sunday. Highs on Sunday to be warmer with the warm air advection pushing high temperatures into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Summary: A cold front passage will bring cooler weather early this week, then high pressure will provide sunny and seasonal weather for the middle of the week. Warmer weather will return for the latter half of the week.
418 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
601 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure centered over the region this morning will move east today. A strong cold front will approach Saturday night and cross the region on Sunday.
1248 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 A cold front will move south into the state overnight and through the daylight hours on Saturday.
Winds will back toward east by mid afternoon as broad high pressure settles across the north Gulf. /issued 244 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The upper level low will drift towards the lower Texas coast tonight resulting in an increase in some high clouds. The upper level low/trough will move towards the middle Texas coast on Saturday as a weak cold front moves through Central Texas. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to around 100 west.
(Issued 945 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016) Much of the SE region remains under the influence of a stacked ridge of high pressure pretty much layered across the mid/srn Atlantic states. A fairly persistent light sly wind over the Lower MS Valley into nw AL was helping to limit the radiational cooling thus far. 09 For 06Z TAFs: With high pressure over the mid/srn Atlantic states well in control of the overall wx pattern, VFR conds are xpcted into the daytime hrs Sat. Mid/high clouds will then begin to overspread the area from w to e during the late morning/afternoon hrs, as a cold front approaches from the nw.
a little warmer with a shallower marine layer with coastal low clouds and patchy fog only extending into the western valleys this morning.
An offshore high pressure ridge will maintain dry conditions across the region and above normal temperatures across interior areas through Sunday.
342 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The short term concerns remain timing of upper trough and associated showers over eastern cwa today. Water vapor imagery showing upper trough moving through central MN this morning. High pressure ridge drops southeast over the area during the night with some pressure gradient developing on the backside of the high into the west late. with coolest reading found into west central WI closer to the ridge axis and light winds.
Busy night across West Texas/SE NM as convection continues behind a cold front movg south. /issued 359 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ Currently, a cold front is pushing southward courtesy of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and has gotten to the northern Permian Basin. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler with highs today only expected to get to the 70s across much of the area. After cooler temperatures tonight, high temperatures tomorrow will rebound into the 80s across most places. Rain and thunderstorm chances Sunday will be south and west of the Pecos River mostly along the higher terrain where the front may be lingering still.
254 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the forecast area early this morning; however, more storms are expected later today as a cold front passes. Storm will end by this evening with cooler and less humid conditions Sunday. The first is the effective surface warm front located from northeast of St Louis to across the Ohio River. Everything may exit the area after 6z with potential for a lull until the cold front approaches from the NW Saturday.
312 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The well-advertised cold front has pushed through the remainder of southeastern Kansas early this morning, and post-frontal stratiform rainfall should clear the far southeastern Kansas counties by 10 or 11 UTC. The parent upper trough over the Upper Midwest will translate eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by this evening, with high pressure building into Kansas with cooler and drier air for today.
555 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The well-advertised cold front has pushed through the remainder of southeastern Kansas early this morning, and post-frontal stratiform rainfall should clear the far southeastern Kansas counties by 10 or 11 UTC. The parent upper trough over the Upper Midwest will translate eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by this evening, with high pressure building into Kansas with cooler and drier air for today.
412 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the forecast area through today. The upper ridge weakens and gets suppressed to the south overnight as an upper trough moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Expect another hot day similar to the past few but max temperatures should be a few degrees cooler mainly northwest on Sunday.