Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stratus will likely persist for most locations tomorrow, so opted to go toward the cooler end of guidance for tomorrow afternoon with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s deg F.
357 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions tonight into Saturday.
135 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Cooler temperatures expected today along with scattered snow showers through Saturday morning with the passing of a cold front. A cold front will continue to pass through our region today. With high pressure building to our west and dry air advancing into the area, scattered snow showers will remain light. With no building inversion due to strong cold advection overnight, expect pre-dawn wind chills to remain in the single digits in the lower elevations/below zero in the ridges. With high pressure centered over Pittsburgh, a moist BL profile will struggle to develop.
For Saturday the main challenge in the forecast is the timing of the low level clouds leaving a region and how much sun and southwest winds an area will get through the day. These factors will determine temperatures tomorrow as it looks like areas along and west of the highway 83 corridor should see decent enough sunshine and southwest winds to make it into the low 60s. Went ahead and trended with the warmer idea and put highs in the low to mid 50s.
Lows tonight will be highly dependent on cloud cover with areas able to fall quickly where pockets of clearing develop otherwise looking like most of the area will stay above freezing in the single digits tonight. Across the north a cold front will aid in producing some light snow fall with these two forcings partially overlapping and bringing a higher amount into the Lake of the Woods area now.
Cold front is gradually sagging southward across the forecast area, currently situated roughly along the I-10 corridor.
Persistent low-level clouds and some foggy conditions this morning have kept temps on the cooler side so far.
In advance of this low a weak wave will move east and produce some light precipitation across northern Nebraska (mainly north of US-20). As temperatures rise above freezing during the day on Saturday and then begin to fall late in the afternoon/early evening, there is a chance of some mixed precipitation. This will likely fall as freezing drizzle and mainly impact portions of the southern Sandhills and into south central Nebraska. Freezing drizzle will be short lived as temperatures quickly dip below freezing and any mixed precipitation changes back to all snow. Regardless, some brief reductions in visibility could be possible as well as some slippery roadways due to light freezing drizzle earlier.
240 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 The region will be under the influence of cold, continental high pressure overnight, with clear to mostly-clear sky conditions. The center of high pressure will slide eastward, well to our north across the southern Great Lakes/OH Vally region. Thus, we will remain on its periphery along a tighter pressure gradient between the high and a trough of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be chilly, as CAA is poised to enter the area in the low-levels tonight, with expected values mainly in the mid/upr 20s by daybreak Saturday. But, amidst the abundant sunshine, temperatures are expected to be in the low/mid 50s Saturday afternoon.
Dry and seasonally cool weather continues for Saturday with highs in the 40s outside of the higher elevations. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is located along and just north of the Tennessee/Kentucky border with high pressure centered over Iowa/South Dakota/Minnesota/Nebraska. Given this setup, quiet weather will continue with the cold front pushing into the area and further south.
An area of stratus has persisted tonight west and south of Aberdeen where increased low to mid level moisture is advancing on the nose of a warm front extending from the Colorado low that will affect our region on Saturday. The warm front pushes into central SD by mid day Saturday with southerly flow ahead of the front continuing to advect in mid level moisture and help increase lift for light to moderate snow.
However, the low-level moisture will persist & take longer to scour out, leading to some drops in visibility/patchy fog in any light drizzle/rain. This will keep temperatures held in rain chances in check, with coolest highs in the north in the low-mid 50s & low 60s to the south, similar to yesterday. Slightly cooler drier air will advect south into the CWA during the period, as high pressure to the north builds south and into the region. Meanwhile, lows tonight will range from the lower 30s north to middle 40s south.
255 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Weakening cold front will sag south into the forecast area Saturday leading to abundant clouds and a few showers for areas from around Tampa Bay and the Interstate 4 corridor northward. The southwesterly flow out ahead of the boundary will continue to bring slightly warmer moister air into the region leading to areas of fog, some locally dense, late tonight into Saturday morning.
/issued 1058 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ 17Z Update High pressure moving over the area. /issued 447 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ A seasonally-progressive mid-winter pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states through the next 7 days. The forecast will start out with confluent zonal flow over the eastern half of the US, downstream of an upper trof over the Great Basin. This rain will taper off this morning, as this jet streak weakens and upstream ridging amplifies over the plains. The southern plains ridge will translate east to the lower MS River valley on Saturday, bringing continued mild and dry conditions to the Midsouth.
While the weak cold advection will continue this evening, the low stratus will not be able clear the region before a SErly low level flow returns after 06Z tonight.
A surface boundary just to our north is holding a widespread low level cloud deck behind it with a cooler air mass. Temperatures cool slightly tonight and moisture in the low level sets up another night for some patchy fog. Lows on Saturday night in the upper 50s in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and the low 60s elsewhere.
929 AM MST Fri Jan 22 2021 High pressure currently dominates the CWA with only weak upper level instability providing a few light snow showers in the Sawatch Range. Due to clear skies and significant radiational cooling in the San Luis valley, conditions are favorable for some patchy freezing fog developing and impacting the central portion of the valley until the early morning until the inversion near the surface breaks up. Temperatures are going to be slightly warmer than previous nights due to the increase in cloud cover inhibiting radiational cooling at the surface. Temperatures will be seasonable, except during the SUN through TUE time period where we could see temps in the single digits above and below zero across portions of the high mountain valleys.
Dry conditions continue through this evening as a weak cold front sags south across north-central FL. Conditions are favorable for patchy fog to develop tonight across east-central Florida, with the highest chances across the interior and especially in Lake County.
253 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 High pressure is currently sitting over the area.
Mostly dry conditions on tap for today as a weak cold front slowly pushes south from along I-10 into north- central Florida tonight. Temps warm into the mid to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies, except for the far northern areas where cooler conditions (highs in the low 70s) are expected as cloud cover is increasing. Overnight likely to see impacts at most area terminals from low stratus and/or shallow ground fog ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The lowest CIGs are forecast from KISM-KDAB northward where IFR/LIFR conditions are possible, and MVFR/IFR conditions possible from KMLB/TIX south. The low stratus could linger for much of the day Saturday. Winds increase to 10-15 knots later tonight across the offshore waters as a weak cold front approaches, with some showers possible along the Volusia County waters.
1033 AM MST Fri Jan 22 2021 High pressure currently dominates the CWA with only weak upper level instability providing a few light snow showers in the Sawatch Range. Due to clear skies and significant radiational cooling in the San Luis valley, conditions are favorable for some patchy freezing fog developing and impacting the central portion of the valley until the early morning until the inversion near the surface breaks up. Temperatures are going to be slightly warmer than previous nights due to the increase in cloud cover inhibiting radiational cooling at the surface. Temperatures will be seasonable, except during the SUN through TUE time period where we could see temps in the single digits above and below zero across portions of the high mountain valleys.
The clearing trend is expected to continue tonight through Sat as high pressure builds in from the north. This ridge will not be very strong and will be short lived across the region.
1139 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Pretty quiet across the region early this morning, with clear skies for most of the area as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Somewhat breezy northwest winds continue to usher in cooler air, as temperatures around 3 AM were in the single digits in many locations. With surface ridging in place overnight, expect continued quiet, clear, and cold weather as we see widespread lows below 0.
154 PM MST Fri Jan 22 2021 Water vapor shows upper low over northern Manitoba, with next embedded short wave diving southeast across southern SASK. Nearly cut-off low is along the CA coast. Inverted trof associated with CO surface will nose into our southern overnight into Saturday.
221 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Upper level flow will become increasingly southwesterly over the next 24 hours as an upper low digs into SRN California. There is a risk some of the drizzle could freeze on elevated surfaces across the southwestern panhandle where temperatures may drop to just below freezing. A positively tilted upper low will be located across southern California by late tomorrow evening.
Lows tonight will be cooler in the wake of the frontal passage with readings generally averaging between 40-45 degrees over interior southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama and in the upper 40s to lower 50s over southern portions of our region.
/Tonight through Friday/ As of 20z surface mesoanalysis shows an area of high pressure centered over northern Iowa. The bulk of the current forecast period is quite active thanks to a large trough carving out the western conus. Expecting the highest snowfall amounts of 3- 5" within the Winter Weather Advisory in north central Iowa and lesser amounts of 1-3" further south to I-80.
Expecting for tomorrow to be a rinse and repeat of today as a weak upper-level ridge begins to build over the region.
224 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Cooler temperatures expected today along with scattered snow showers through Saturday morning with the passing of a cold front. With no building inversion due to strong cold advection overnight, expect pre-dawn wind chills to remain in the single digits in the lower elevations/below zero in the ridges. With high pressure centered over Pittsburgh, a moist BL profile will struggle to develop.
Given the high levels of lake induced instability and upslope flow coming off Ontario, high end advisory criteria snow amounts appear certain. High pressure rotating out of the Ohio Valley will weaken snow showers Saturday afternoon as chilly air rolls into the area. 330 PM Update: Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will slowly shift to the east across our area through the weekend.
There is always a chance for some patchy freezing drizzle when saturation in the ice bearing layer dries out, but not seeing any significant signals.
Going into the weekend, a backdoor cold front approaches South Florida, shifting our prevailing high pressure southeastward into the Atlantic, keeping a WSW to W flow through the short term period.
(This evening through Saturday) A cold front was stalled across the area this afternoon, roughly near a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to Brady, as of 1 PM. The cold front will continue to move south tonight through the rest of the area, with the low clouds and fog following behind. For Saturday, have trended temperatures cooler across the area with the potential for the low clouds to hang around most of the day, slowing warming.
258 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Cold high pressure has kept temperatures in the single digits and teens early this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies. A quiet evening and overnight are on tap thanks to high pressure meandering through. Given this setup, have maintained forecast lows on the cooler side of guidance.
1057 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Temperatures turn colder today as high pressure settles into central Illinois.
However, fog and freezing fog is expected to form tonight between 00z and 06z, favoring KAMA and KDHT. The cool northerly air that clipped us yesterday will keep temps cooler today. Some areas in the northern Panhandles are expected to dip below freezing, so freezing fog will be possible as well. Thus, expect to see the low clouds and fog dissipate by late morning as we start to warm up. The low will also tighten the pressure gradient and bring breezy winds to the area. Meanwhile, in the mid-levels weak ridging to zonal flow will bring WAA as well, making Saturday a mild day in the 60s for most.
1142 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Temperatures turn colder today as high pressure settles into central Illinois.
312 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Building high pressure will bring a drying and cooling trend into the weekend.
The cold front is a little ahead of schedule and cold air and mstr not handled well by models. As it passes by the region will go into brief ridging aloft but the next upper low swings across CA today with a secondary low rotating behind it Saturday.
A cold front will slowly edge into the region this afternoon, causing winds to shift out of the E. The cold front is a little ahead of schedule and cold air and mstr not handled well by models. As it passes by the region will go into brief ridging aloft but the next upper low swings across CA today with a secondary low rotating behind it Saturday.
220 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 High pressure over the upper Midwest will slide southeast tonight and become centered over Ohio by 18z Saturday. Could be a period of light freezing rain over southern IL into southwest IN.
257 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Weakening cold front will sag south into the forecast area Saturday leading to abundant clouds and a few showers for areas from around Tampa Bay and the Interstate 4 corridor northward. The southwesterly flow out ahead of the boundary will continue to bring slightly warmer moister air into the region leading to areas of fog, some locally dense, late tonight into Saturday morning.
1055 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 17Z Update High pressure moving over the area. /issued 447 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ A seasonally-progressive mid-winter pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states through the next 7 days. The forecast will start out with confluent zonal flow over the eastern half of the US, downstream of an upper trof over the Great Basin. This rain will taper off this morning, as this jet streak weakens and upstream ridging amplifies over the plains. The southern plains ridge will translate east to the lower MS River valley on Saturday, bringing continued mild and dry conditions to the Midsouth.
The rain will diminish this evening, but the low cigs will persist, especially for KTLH and KVLD.
a stationary frontal boundary across south Texas tonight will retreat northward as a warm front Saturday. advective fog will develop along the lower Texas coast this evening and spread inland tonight.
240 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 A squashed mean-layer ridge stretches west across the Caribbean and Central America. Skies are mostly sunny, although a thin and emaciated cloud line is draped along the Lower Keys. Mean layer ridging will regain latitude over the next 24-hours or so, setting up camp in the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States.
Low pressure will move east along a west to east oriented frontal boundary this afternoon, as this boundary slowly sinks south into NE FL. The front will move just south of the forecast area Tonight, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build toward the northeast during the day Saturday, as the frontal boundary remains stalled just to the south. An inverted trough is expected to develop in the coastal waters due to the onshore flow pattern. The front will begin to lift back into Suwannee valley late in the day as a warm front. With the front mostly to the south, and northeast flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters, temperatures will trend a little below normal Saturday, especially near the coast.
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 17Z Update High pressure moving over the area. /issued 447 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ A seasonally-progressive mid-winter pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states through the next 7 days. The forecast will start out with confluent zonal flow over the eastern half of the US, downstream of an upper trof over the Great Basin. This rain will taper off this morning, as this jet streak weakens and upstream ridging amplifies over the plains. The southern plains ridge will translate east to the lower MS River valley on Saturday, bringing continued mild and dry conditions to the Midsouth.
625 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions tonight into Saturday.
Otherwise, mid level clouds on the northern edge of a large upper level low in the Desert Southwest and Great Basin will encompass much of central Idaho through west central and southwest Montana.
/issued 324 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ A stalled cool front was situated along the coastline this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 60s over the area. a progressive pattern is expected to develop with quick moving short waves embedded in the western US main trough.
220 PM MST Fri Jan 22 2021 H5 trough continues to drop southward along the northern California Coast, with energy break out ahead of it currently across the western mountains. The leading edge of the main trough moves into NV/UT tonight, drawing the precip southward into the Wyoming and Salt ranges, before spreading east across southern and central WY later tonight. A weak cold front pushes the activity back to the south Saturday night, with temperatures falling into the single digits for northern and central WY Saturday night.
536 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Building high pressure will bring a drying and cooling trend into the weekend.
Cooler Canadian air will keep temperatures below normal on Saturday, but skies will generally be clear.
A short wave trough ejecting out of the southwest U. upper trough and across our region through Saturday night will be the main influence in bringing the snowfall. The period starts out with polar high pressure centered over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and nudging down into the Dakotas and Minnesota.
445 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Cold high pressure has kept temperatures in the single digits and teens early this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies. A quiet evening and overnight are on tap thanks to high pressure meandering through. Given this setup, have maintained forecast lows on the cooler side of guidance.
935 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 A dry cold front will pass through the area this evening.
415 PM MST Fri Jan 22 2021 H5 trough continues to drop southward along the northern California Coast, with energy break out ahead of it currently across the western mountains. The leading edge of the main trough moves into NV/UT tonight, drawing the precip southward into the Wyoming and Salt ranges, before spreading east across southern and central WY later tonight. A weak cold front pushes the activity back to the south Saturday night, with temperatures falling into the single digits for northern and central WY Saturday night.
Cold front has now moved well south of the forecast area. Dew points have already dropped into the lower 20s northern sections too. Will take several more hours for dew points in the south and east to lower into the lower to mid 20s.
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 30s in the eastern and northeastern parts of the forecast area to the low to mid-40s across eastern Colorado. A trough currently over Northern California will progress eastward tonight and into the day Saturday. The first trough is expected to move through Saturday afternoon and evening.
upper trough and across our region through Saturday night will be the main influence in bringing the snowfall. The period starts out with polar high pressure centered over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and nudging down into the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Temperatures Saturday will be a little cooler (weak CAA ending/clouds) but then the front moves back north out of the waters going into late Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain threat increases with the increased upglide and warm front proximity as a weak s/w embedded in the subtropical jet slides into the area.
This trough will be the driver of our weather to come in the next few days, leading to a more active pattern. For tonight, conditions remain quiet as high pressure slides east with morning temps bottoming out in the low 20s, possibly upper teens in far northeastern areas. That being said, if precip were to start earlier, then we would have more freezing drizzle in far northern KS during the day.
324 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 A stalled cool front was situated along the coastline this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 60s over the area. a progressive pattern is expected to develop with quick moving short waves embedded in the western US main trough.
Will only see slightly warmer high temperatures on Saturday for most of the forecast area with increasing mid-high level cloudiness.
Chances for light snow across northern and southeast North Dakota on Saturday followed by the arrival of a much colder air mass are the highlights for the short term period. These waves have mainly been responsible for widespread low stratus and occasional flurries across all but southwest North Dakota, though lower visibilities have persisted at times along the Highway 52 corridor from Minot to the Canadian border. A cold front tied to the northern low, combined with persistent waves of mid level vorticity and steep low level lapse rates, may result in scattered snow showers producing little to no accumulation Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across northwest and north central North Dakota. Highs on Saturday across the far north may be limited to the teens due to the expected arrival of the cold front by mid afternoon.
Meanwhile, a robust mid/upper trough was digging across Northern California. With temperatures above freezing and a slight delay in the onset of drizzle on Saturday, minimal impacts are anticipated at this time. There could still be a narrow window where some overlap between drizzle and freezing temperatures could create some slick conditions across portions of central KS late Sat night but with considerable drying progged in the wake of the front, confidence in widespread post-frontal freezing drizzle across central KS remains somewhat low at this time.
414 PM MST Fri Jan 22 2021 Water vapor shows upper low over northern Manitoba, with next embedded short wave diving southeast across southern SASK. Nearly cut-off low is along the CA coast. Inverted trof associated with CO surface will nose into our southern overnight into Saturday.
855 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 The cold front will slowly settle into the Nature Coast overnight and then lift out to the NE Saturday, bringing a few showers mainly across the northern half of the area, as well as the potential for areas of fog over land, and some sea fog over the northern and central coastal waters.
400 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Breezy northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon in the wake of a backdoor cold front having pushed southwest through the region.
/issued 253 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ High pressure is currently sitting over the area.