Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With ample cloud cover around, overnight lows should only drop to about 10 degrees cooler than current readings. The next system will quickly approach Middle TN Thursday night as an upper trough kicks out of the SW CONUS region.
/issued 1105 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/ Low clouds cover nearly the entire Mid-South behind the cold front that moved through last night. /issued 227 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/ A cold front currently stretches from near Knoxville, Tennessee to Greenwood, Mississippi. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s across much of the Mid- South. The cold front that is currently moving through the Mid-South will push southward to the Gulf Coast today and stall out. The front will begin lifting northward as a warm front on Thursday.
High pressure will shift east Thursday ahead of the next Pacific storm, which will stall over the Pacific Northwest through the end of the week resulting in a strong southerly flow over the Great Basin.
355 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 A late season cold front has pushed deep into South Texas. As the upper low over the Four Corners approaches overnight, large-scale forcing for ascent will spread east as well.
248 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2016 Scattered showers and isolated t-storms have stayed over the high terrain this afternoon due in large part to light southeast transport winds. In the high country. the upper low and its bundle of moisture and weakening large scale ascent continue to pass south of Colorado. This should result in gradual clearing overnight over the plains and later over the high country. High Temperatures on the plains in the low to mid 70s back to near average for mid May. Shower and t-storm chances lower tomorrow with scattered pops in the high country by afternoon due in large part to strong daytime heating.
Meanwhile an intense low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia coast is forecast to dive/develop southeast into the Pacific northwest states on Thursday.
Southwest trough will finally eject out onto the plains overnight, translating across the Southern Plains.
458 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 For tonight, an upper level low pressure system currently moving through eastern Arizona and western New Mexico will continue a slow east northeast movement across west Texas through Thursday, albeit weakening into an open wave by the time it moves over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Thursday.
346 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Upper level low situated over the southwestern states with an upper level ridge over the Northern Plains.
Most of the Midsouth should see readings in the low to middle 50s.
High pressure overhead will provide light winds and mostly clear skies tonight. Plan on lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across northern Wisconsin to the lower 40s over northeast Iowa. Afternoon relative humidity values look to fall to the lower 20s once again across central Wisconsin. Elsewhere look for relative humidity values to fall into the lower 30s. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern the rest of the week with gradually moderating temperatures going into the weekend.
306 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 18z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area from late this afternoon through Thursday as high pressure slowly moves toward the east coast. High pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue the light winds and dry conditions.
Some increased mixing in the lower levels though in the wake of a cold frontal passage may allow for cloud bases to climb just above VFR levels later this afternoon.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure stretched from the Central Plains NE through the Western Great Lakes into SW Quebec. Look for mins to range from the lower to middle 30s North-Central WI, upper 30s to around 40 degrees south. Both the surface and 8H ridge axes appear to be far enough to the east on Thursday to allow winds to become S-SW and bring warmer, more moist air into WI. Lakeshore areas should see more sun and cooler conditions as the lake breeze works inland during the late morning/afternoon. Max temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s near Lake MI, mainly upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.
219 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Showers will decrease across the state this evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
The clearing trend will continue on Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily settles over the region. We can expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday, along with light winds and warmer temperatures.
Weak upper low spinning near the Arizona/New Mexico border at midday. On Thursday the chance for showers will increase across all of western Kansas as the upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains.
cold front should cross the Snake Plain early Thursday afternoon with winds stronger enough to issue a Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls Reservoir.
146 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Low pressure and rain showers will move east today. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
354 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 The main upper trough will be moving across our area late tonight through Thursday night, which will result in increasing rain chances. Once this system clears the area, warmer and drier weather will return for the weekend, with temperatures warming back to near the seasonal normals.
Synoptic pattern and observations: High pressure remains overhead with dry air solidly in place. The winds are even light aloft in loose height pattern, as an upper trough moves slowly east and getting replaced by some minor ridging. Thus, frost and freezing temperatures will be achieved over enough of the region to result in frost and freeze headlines for one more night. Highs Thursday will be slightly warmer, into the upper half of the 60s and lower 70s, with low humidity. Cooler lakeshores where lake breezes reside.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):A late season cold front is located over the northern Ranchlands with a bow echo anchored along the boundary moving steadily east over Jim Hogg and Northern Starr counties. GFS as well as the HRRR shows a strong vort max moving across South Central Texas approaching the Lower TX coast through this evening. 8 to 2+ inches, and the disturbances will keep a small threat of severe weather with a more substantial transition to a heavy rain event with training of heavy showers and thunderstorms anticipated along and south of the cold front.
330 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Another quiet evening across the Northern Plains with a steady return flow south wind on the backside of the departing high pressure. Max temps will be another couple degrees higher tomorrow with the warmer start due to the aforementioned steady south winds overnight.
High pressure over the region has led to mostly clear skies and light winds overnight which have allowed temperatures to drop into the thirties for most areas as of 08Z. The high will move south and east today allowing the surface wind to turn southerly for most areas. Some of the high res CAMS support a low pop and we kept the mention in that area. It will be warmer today with highs in the mid sixties to lower seventies, cooler close to Lake Superior. Similar conditions to today will occur Thursday across the Northland with highs in the upper sixties to lower seventies with it again being cooler close to Lake Superior.
A cold front has pushed into northwest Alabama and was located near Jasper at 12 Noon. Visible satellite imagery is showing the clouds thinning so most areas will likely reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. The exception will be areas north of cold front where highs will be in the middle to upper 70s. Sfc winds will be vrbl thru the aftn but a gradual turn to a nw direction should occur at the northern TAF sites between 21Z and 00Z as a weak cold front pushes southeast.
304 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 After a fair and seasonable night, an upper level low will move across NY and PA Thursday with a few scattered showers or sprinkles, mainly in the afternoon.
weak steering flow aloft and weak instability contributing to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the higher terrain mainly from the Tavaputs to the Flat Tops and south. closer to the better moisture and cyclonic circulation associated with the upper level low over central Arizona. Expect Thursday to be several degrees warmer than today.
309 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Closed upper low over four corners as seen in WV imagery. Closed low over the Great Lakes with trough back into central plains. Ridging across the Dakotas and Pacific Northwest with an intense short wave between over Lake Winnipeg as seen in visible. Quasi Block with H5 ridge from central plains into Hudson Bay and closed low over the four corners.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry through Thursday.
145 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Cool high pressure will gradually build in from the west through the remainder of the week.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a positively tilted trough over the southwest with south-southwesterly flow over Texas. The upper trough will move into and across Texas tonight and Thursday.
Cold front has stalled across the area. This stalled front along with upper level disturbance and an expected coastal trough with abundant moisture (PWAT around 2 inches) will result in another chance for heavy rains. though don't expect to get much warmer than that. Highs area wide likely to be in the lower to mid 80s.
119 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Current surface map shows the cold front sitting near the I-59 corridor.
As warmer, moist air begins to advance north tomorrow over the cooler air near the surface, rain will similarly spread north during the morning. The rain appears to be associated with a mid-level trough axis extending from west Texas eastward across the Red River and the entrance region of an upper level jet. Rain/showers will increase this evening and especially overnight as waa increases ahead of a trough/low to our west.
/ISSUED / Quite a contrast this morning across Southeast Texas with 10 AM temperatures in the low to mid 60s up north (behind the frontal boundary) and upper 70s to lower 80 at the coast (along/ahead of the front). Much of Southeast Texas still looks on track for better rain chances tomorrow afternoon and on into tomorrow night as the Southern Arizona area mid/upper level low lifts out and moves eastward.
HIGH High pressure will bring mostly clear skies overnight, with another round of late morning and afternoon cumulus likely Thursday, mainly away from Lake Michigan.
Showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish this evening as the low pressure system moves eastward. A drying trend will start on Thursday with a few showers lingering over the mountain areas with the highest precipitation chances in the White Mountains region.
120 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Current surface map shows the cold front sitting near the I-59 corridor.
605 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 After showers exit tonight, drier and warmer weather is forecast for Thursday.
Max temperatures today region- wide in the mid to upper 80s, with min temperatures overnight near 70, warmer near the coast.
641 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 After a fair and seasonable night, an upper level low will move across NY and PA Thursday with a few scattered showers or sprinkles, mainly in the afternoon.
As for temps tonight, given the above, have trended aob the cooler guidance for tonight. Do not with dewpoints mixing out into the lower 40s across the region, do not anticipate fog development tonight. Carney Sprawling high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will continue to be the primary feature controlling our weather for the next several days.
Another in a long series of troughs will move into California tonight and Thursday, then deepen through the weekend. Thursday we'll start seeing the effects of this with a slightly deeper marine layer, cooler temps, and a strong onshore push of more than 9mb lax-dag.
213 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 High pressure builds in on Thursday with a drier environment.
High pressure over the Pacific Northwest is giving way to a cold front this afternoon, which will spread south and east across the forecast area through tonight.
the Weather Prediction Center has all 24 of our counties in a slight risk of excessive rainfall from 06Z tonight trough 12Z tomorrow morning.
Winds and temps on track with the forecast as SE zones remain a touch cooler with mixing. High pressure is currently over eastern Minnesota.
Surface cold front stretched across the northwestern part of the state this afternoon, and this front is forecast to press a bit farther south into the state over the next 24 hours.
225 PM MST WED MAY 18 2016 The large low pressure system over Arizona will move east into New Mexico tonight, bringing an end to showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern Arizona this evening.
A weak upper level trough of low pressure will interact with some surface heating to produce mainly terrain driven scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Diurnally driven clouds that formed mostly over the terrain will diminish this evening before mid- upper level trough of low pressure encroaches upon the region. Showers will develop in the mid-late morning hours with focus around the higher terrain.
Subjective 12z upper air analysis indicates an upper-level low over the CA/AZ border, with troughing across the Great Lakes.
An inverted trough/boundary will move across the area the rest of today. inverted trough and instability will produce scattered showers and isolated thunder near the North Carolina/ Tennessee state-line.
Otherwise, forecast for today is on track with most locations rising into the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. The upper flow is rather weak and over the course of the short term gradually evolves into a ridge aloft as a upper trof pushes into the Rockies.
145 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2016 Warmer today under higher pressure aloft with some cumulus over the mountains and deserts and primarily mostly sunny skies elsewhere. A little cooler on Thursday with better onshore flow as a low pressure system moves in over the Pacific Northwest.
336 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Ridging overhead has kept our sensible weather very quiet the last couple days. Have gone with min temps generally from 36 up through the low 40s, which matches fairly well with what happened upstream of us yesterday. The southwest flow and warm moist advection continues through Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures and dewpoints. An upper level ridge over the central US will amplify and build into the Upper Midwest into the weekend, giving the Northland several days of southerly flow and a warming trend.
/Issued 451 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/ Analysis of water vapor satellite imagery this morning indicates a broad upper low pressure system over AZ with several lobes of vorticity rotating around it. Today's max temps in the 50s and 60s will still be close to 20 degrees below normal though! Slight chance for showers today, and chances increase by tonight as the next wave ejects out ahead of the upper low.
24 hour temperature trends are running cooler in most places across the CWA. although a few locations, Monterey, Reid Hillview AP, and several locations in the East Bay are running warmer. Overall, temperatures are running int he upper 60s to the 80s, with warmest areas reaching the lower 90s.
325 PM MST WED MAY 18 2016 The large low pressure system over Arizona will move east into New Mexico tonight, bringing an end to showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern Arizona this evening.
/issued 346 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/ A broad upper trough remains west of the region today resulting in persistently unsettled SW flow aloft and continued rain chances. At the surface, a cold front will be somewhat stationary across the far southern zones today with cool easterly flow across areas north of the front. We continue to see high winds reported at Guadalupe Pass overnight but speeds are expected to drop below high winds criteria by 12Z at which point the High Wind Warning will expire. The main upper low, now located over AZ, will slowly move east today and weaken, becoming an open wave as it approaches the western zones this evening. Models hit at maybe an MCS developing near the lower Trans Pecos late tonight. Thursday, rain chances will end from west to east as the upper trough lifts NE.
306 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 After showers exit tonight, drier and warmer weather is forecast for Thursday.
302 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Expansive upper trough continues to spin over the Desert Southwest region this afternoon while much of the area remains under westerly flow aloft. Stronger mixing of warmer air towards the sfc tomorrow led to raising highs a few more degrees to near 70 in addition to the slower progression of thicker cloud cover expected to arrive by late afternoon. In regards to the southwest upper trough weakening as it shifts across the southern plains, rain chances were reduced or removed during the afternoon.
414 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend into the Ohio Valley through Thursday night, providing dry conditions.
256 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Cold front has moved through the area this morning with the exception of lower Acadiana. It will be slightly cooler today in the wake of the front with a little increase in winds and dry air.
156 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 Low pressure over northern Ontario will move eastward into northern Quebec on Saturday. This will drag a cold front across the region tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. Radar shows a few showers developing post cold front just west of the area so left the slight chance pop in there. A cold front will move across the region tonight into early Saturday morning. Cooler across the west where the cold front passes first. Cold front will be east of the region by mid morning with most of the showers moving eastward with it. However it will be breezy and much cooler than recent days. A better surge of cooler air will cross the region with the upper level trough late Saturday night into early Sunday.
Weak trof moving through the Wrn states ridge spreading thin BKN-OVC cirrus over Norcal. ridging expected to erode most of the high cloud cover that is to the north and also southwest of CA. JHM Otherwise, quiet weather for the weekend as high pressure remains in control.
High pressure will build from the Northwest Tonight which will result in clearing skies, and temperatures will lower into the lower to middle 60s.
As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 70s with lows tonight dipping to around 50 degrees.
150 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 [Through 06z Sunday] Matthew will continue moving away from the region today as a cold front moves in from the west. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the period as there is a lot of dry air ahead of the cold front. Also, on Saturday, a cold front will pass through the region.
343 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2016 Flat upper ridge over the area this morning will shift east into the plains today/tonight, as weak upper trough lifts northward from the desert sw. Trough will produce increasing high level cloudiness today, and some very isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the NM border in the late afternoon as low and mid level moisture increases. As trough lifts out overnight, shower chances will slowly creep northward across the area, with greatest chance for measurable precip over the San Juans by early Sunday morning. There is some modest CAPE associated with the trough, so will leave mention of ISOLD TS during the afternoon and evening hours. Temps Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s across the Plains, and 60s for the high valleys.
A reinforcing surge of high pressure and dry air will push into the region on Sunday, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s across most areas. Afternoon highs will only be a few degrees cooler than earlier in the week, but the overall decrease in moisture will make for more seasonable apparent temperatures.
615 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 A cold front will move through the area today.
The frontal boundary associated with the low looks to just reach the far northwestern CWA late Sunday night. Warm air can be expected ahead of the low with highs likely climbing into the 70s and low 80s.
The High pressure center becomes more predominant as it drifts eastward across southeast MO/southern IL tonight. That will relax winds/gradient, esp in our north/west, nearest the High center.
307 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 The region will be under the influence of NW flow aloft on the backside of the trof today. Miller The expansive high pressure system will continue to dominate the region tonight. Upstream readings within the ridge across KS suggest lows in the 40s, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots in the Ozarks bottom out in the upper 30s. The high pressure system will then begin a slow retreat starting on Sunday and continuing into the early week.
403 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region through the first part of the upcoming week. The cold front has pushed through all but our far southeastern areas early this morning. Expect highs today ranging from the low 60s northwest to mid 60s in the south and east.
The weather over Central California will remain quiet for the next several days as a Rex Blocking pattern sets-up over the Eastern Pacific.
A cold front has moved through much of the Four State Region with Northerly winds and dry air spreading into the area as high pressure on the surface builds. /issued 911 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016/ Cold front as of 02z was very difficult to pick out as winds have turned north ahead of as well as behind the boundary.
A weak trough over the desert southwest will result in an increase in moisture over southern Utah this weekend with a warming trend.
240 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, while a broad upper trough rests over the SW U. Late tonight through Sunday moisture will rotate north from Mexico along the western periphery of the western gulf high and be funneled north by the trough overthe SW U. As this trough slowly moves northeast over AZ Sat. The trough should move into SW CO Sunday with precip and clouds migrating north into central CO and UT. The above mentioned trough crosses southwest Colorado Sunday morning and should lead to scattered showers mainly south south of highway 50.
607 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today then cross the area tonight.
317 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High pressure over the area was bringing clear skies, light winds and very cool temperatures. Today: Sunny skies and rather light west winds expected as high pressure slips off to the southeast during the day. A weak cold front will drop southward into our northern cwa but it will be marked by only a wind shift from the north or northeast. Another Canadian high pressure system builds into the area after midnight. high pressure will begin to slide east of the forecast area with near seasonal highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
637 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 Cooler and drier air will prevail this weekend. Skies will remain clear through the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. Much cooler and drier air was spreading across the area behind a cold front early this morning. Temperatures by daybreak will drop into the lower to mid 40s, the coolest over most areas since mid May. The cool airmass will remain over the area through Sunday night with lows dipping into the upper 30s over some of the locally colder spots early Sunday; otherwise, low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s this upcoming night. Otherwise, skies should be clear to mostly clear through Sunday night as the ridge of high pressure remain over the area with deep layer subsidence.
1104 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2016 As the upper trough continues to lift out of the plains states towards the Mississippi Valley region this evening, westerly flow and weak short wave ridging move into the Rockies and High Plains region.