Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low that brought unsettled weather to the region with valley rain, mountain snow and some thunderstorms is now located over southeast Colorado and quickly moving eastward into Kansas. Thunderstorms are seen wrapping around the center of the low over southeast Colorado with plenty of moisture and ascent blossoming across Nebraska and northeast Colorado according to the latest GOES-16 satellite imagery. Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon with temperatures rebounding towards near normal levels as a ridge of high pressure slides in from the west. This ridge of high pressure quickly slides east by Saturday morning with southwest flow increasing Saturday afternoon, leading to a mild and breezy day. The best chance for precipitation will be Saturday evening and overnight with a couple inches possible for the higher terrain, mainly over the northern and central mountains.
temperatures are expected to warm through the lower and mid 40s. The upper low remains to the south of the area tonight. Some drier air will work into the northwest cwa as high pressure begins to shift east.
A bit of sky cover was also added across the far western CWA as high clouds rounding the ridge make their way into the area.
/issued 323 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ Upper analysis shows a closed low to our east drifting slowly south into Kentucky. The upper ridge to our west will slowly deamplify through the weekend.
625 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates closed upper level low over the Ohio River Valley and upper level ridge over Northern and High Plains. 12z GFS/NAM are in decent agreement in lifting upper level closed low northward and wraps low level moisture into the eastern areas of the forecast area after 06z Friday. The deterministic models indicate increasing lift/moisture in association with the first impulse wrapping around the upper level closed low and to impact the eastern to southeast parts of the forecast area after 18z Friday.
Very pleasant fall conditions are upon most of Central Alabama, with dry air and cooler temperatures. 75 inches, which is the lowest we've seen in quite a long time. Due to the strong upper low just to our north, mid-level clouds have developed on the west side of the low, moving southward.
506 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 ***UPDATED AVIATION SECTION*** It will be a bit cooler today but still warm.
948 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates closed upper level low over the Ohio River Valley and upper level ridge over Northern and High Plains. 12z GFS/NAM are in decent agreement in lifting upper level closed low northward and wraps low level moisture into the eastern areas of the forecast area after 06z Friday. The deterministic models indicate increasing lift/moisture in association with the first impulse wrapping around the upper level closed low and to impact the eastern to southeast parts of the forecast area after 18z Friday.
1242 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
18Z surface analysis has high pressure from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains while a cut off upper low was over the lower Ohio Valley. The upper low over Kentucky will remain there through Friday.
A cutoff upper level low spins across the Ohio River valley and stretches south into the Gulf of Mexico. The mean layered 700-850 mb analysis from CIMSS retains the subtropical ridge west- southwest across the central Bahamas. Surface observations indicate weak ridging persists through the Bahamas and across the Florida Keys. 7 degC, which is two degrees cooler than 24-hours ago.
635 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will settle over the region behind a cold front keeping skies mainly clear.
Will have some cirrus around 25 kft spreading Southeast around the ridge to the West affecting areas along and to the West of the Red River, and possibly some lower to middle clouds between 5-10 kft rounding the upper low to the East affecting parts of South Central Arkansas and North Central Louisiana. Expect morning lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s possible over northern McCurtain County in southeast Oklahoma and our far northern tier counties in southwest Arkansas.
844 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016 A surface trof is moving west to east as weak jet stream divergence and H7-5 vorticity is moving through the area aloft in a southwest flow regime this evening. On Friday, flow aloft backs as upper low over Pacific NW moves further inland.
1123 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low continuing to spin over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley with ridging over the Plains. At the surface, a ridge extends from the northern Miss valley down into central TX. Upper low is expected to remain stationary through Fri as some southern stream energy lifts across the desert sw. This will keep conditions across the Plains Fri fairly similar to today, with temps a degree or two warmer. Upper low will finally start to lift back to the north Fri evening into Sat as some more robust upper energy comes on shore over the Pacific NW.
928 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate through our area for the rest of tonight on the backside of the slow moving, deep upper level low over KY. This low will continue to linger in the area and actually move west slightly thru Fri.
943 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Upper level low over SE KY continues to dominate the weather for our area. Given the low-level moisture and current dewpoint depression in that area, will include areas of patchy fog for tomorrow morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 73 54 79 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 72 51 78 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 50 73 51 77 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 72 49 75 / 30 10 10 10.
1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Very little has changed in the larger scale weather pattern as upper- level low pressure remains on a wobbly sit 'n spin in the Ohio Valley with a sharp ridge aloft back across the Dakotas. Exception could be some areas near the Buffalo Ridge later tonight and early Friday morning that hints in hi-res solutions to higher threat of widespread lower clouds and visibilities. Ridge aloft will narrow somewhat on Friday as upper low starts to wobble back toward the northwest, and wave pushes into upper ridge in the northern high plains. Low level ridge will remain in place, and southerly gradient increases just a bit across the James valley.
1015 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
Not much going on in the short term with high pressure to the east and a broad area of low pressure to the west resulting in southerly flow and some gustiness with about a 12mb gradient across the state. The period begins with high pressure over the region with a large upper level low pressure area moving into the west coast.
/issued 301 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A cold frontal boundary remains just to the south of the RGV. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build into the region overnight. cooler conditions are also expected.
1025 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Strong downslope winds will be possible along the western slopes of the ridges in the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities with strong perpendicular component, ridgetop inversion, and negative wind shear meeting critical value thresholds. Wind orientation and degraded mixing still raises uncertainty but given the magnitude and projected height of the low level jet the wind advisory will remain in effect through mid Friday morning.
Forecast area remains status quo in the short term as the upper low continues to spin across the Lower Ohio river valley. Nam/HRRR/SREF models all suggest some fog will develop tonight underneath the ridge where winds could go completely calm, thus will add some fog to the forecast.
/issued 201 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ A cold front is currently pushing through the area resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday with highs today mostly ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. A large upper low is centered over Kentucky with upper ridging over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. On Friday, winds become southerly again and the upper ridge remains over the area.
Upper level ridge was over the area. cooler in some spots for tonight. Upper low over KY will drift slowly back north on Fri. Little warmer weather for Fri.
Expect morning lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s possible over northern McCurtain County in southeast Oklahoma and our far northern tier counties in southwest Arkansas. Will have some cirrus around 25 kft spreading Southeast around the ridge to the West, and possibly some lower to middle clouds between 5-10 kft rounding the upper low to the East. A broad cutoff trough over the Ohio River Valley and an upper ridge over the Plains will keep a dry northwesterly flow over the area. Overnight lows should fall into the low to mid 50s areawide and a few places in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas should cool into the upper 40s.
745 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Forecast area remains status quo in the short term as the upper low continues to spin across the Lower Ohio river valley. Nam/HRRR/SREF models all suggest some fog will develop tonight underneath the ridge where winds could go completely calm, thus will add some fog to the forecast.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s expected with upper 60s likely across the Nature Coast. as a frontal boundary washes out over the northern waters FRI and high pressure initially across south FL lifts north in response to tropical system Matthew tracking north over Cuba and/or the eastern Bahamas.
702 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Upper level low continues to effect all terminals with intermittent MVFR cigs at KTRI and VFR cigs at KTYS/KCHA. Gradually improving conditions through the day Friday as the upper low starts to lift northward.
605 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 The low pressure system in the lower Ohio River Valley continues to slowly move south today. On Friday, the low pressure system will begin to back-track slightly to the NW into Indiana.
716 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
Isolated showers have developed over se GA ahead of weak cold front. Weak cold front will move across se GA and I-10 corridor of ne FL tonight. Some hi-res guidance also hints at potential development of an area of IFR CIGS with cold front passing through toward dawn. A cold front will move southeast across area waters late Tonight and stall Friday.
1249 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Strong downslope winds will be possible along the western slopes of the ridges in the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities with strong perpendicular component, ridgetop inversion, and negative wind shear meeting critical value thresholds. Wind orientation and degraded mixing still raises uncertainty but given the magnitude and projected height of the low level jet the wind advisory will remain in effect through mid Friday morning.
Proton Previous Discussion Upper Ridge was centered to our east allowing for a weak southwest flow over Montana.
1001 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 A large area of low pressure will remain in place over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week, providing cool and occasionally rainy conditions.
807 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front will slowly push through the area this afternoon then stall near the coast. Drier and cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend. Cold front continues pushing eastward with drier air residing over the Midlands. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley will shift to the northeast during the period. Air mass drying out during the period with dew points falling into the lower 50s.
High pressure will nose into the region behind a cold front tonight. With it will come cooler and drier air by morning.
635 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Last week, we were under the influence of High pressure at both the surface, and aloft. Now, for the remainder of this week and into the weekend, we will be under the influence of Low pressure aloft, and at the surface. The Low(s) will be spinning just to our east, across the Commonwealth and southern Indiana, thru Friday. It will include a convective element of instability (thunder) in the near term, mainly tmrw, for eastern ptns of the CWA, where the highest pops will exist as well.
953 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 A deep upper low is located over Kentucky this evening. Meanwhile most of the shower activity remains NE of the region closer to the upper low itself. Winds are brisk from the north with the highest gusts near 25mph in the Delta.
1153 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Last week, we were under the influence of High pressure at both the surface, and aloft. Now, for the remainder of this week and into the weekend, we will be under the influence of Low pressure aloft, and at the surface. The Low(s) will be spinning just to our east, across the Commonwealth and southern Indiana, thru Friday. It will include a convective element of instability (thunder) in the near term, mainly tmrw, for eastern ptns of the CWA, where the highest pops will exist as well.
525 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Current surface map places trof over central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Strong upper ridge axis will cross the central CONUS Sat, bringing continued warm and generally dry weather -- except for isolated afternoon storms over the BH.
The upper level trough dropping south from the northeast Pacific is beginning to influence our weather across Central California. Models are in good agreement with the track of the approaching trough. Temperatures will continue the cooling trend to near climo Friday with the approaching trough, then a cold front will track through our area Friday evening bringing more significant cooling for the weekend.
1100 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Large upper low continues to spin over southern Kentucky early this evening and is forecast to only slowly drift north over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, several weak disturbances were rotating west around the northern periphery of the upper low and tracking into our area bringing scattered showers.
807 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Low pressure will drift across the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
1129 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Clouds will continue to rotate through our area for the rest of tonight on the backside of the slow moving, deep upper level low over KY. This low will continue to linger in the area and actually move west slightly thru Fri.
Cool and dry conditions are still on tap for tonight as reinforcing high pressure builds across S TX. Cooler min temps tonight /as compared to this morning with pleasant weather conditions expected Friday with sunny skies and highs in the 80s.
(Issued 237 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016) The 19z IR/visible satellite imagery indicated that the upper low at 500 millibars was rotating counterclockwise across central Kentucky. Quite a bit of broken to overcast low clouds were shifting south- southeast around the periphery of the upper low toward the forecast area. The short term models continue to slowly lift the upper low slightly northward with time on Friday and expect that any light precip should remain generally north of the forecast area.
Wobbly upper level closed low in the Kentucky/Ohio River Valley area will keep patchy cloudiness rotating across the Mid-State over the upcoming forecast period.
812 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Low pressure will slowly drift back north into Michigan and eventually Ontario over the next couple of days.
The large upper closed low continues to be the focus for the short term forecast. Per satellite imagery, the upper low is over KY and headed slowly south towards the mid state. It will continue to spin over the region until the weekend when models show the upper low heading north towards the Great Lakes then eastward into New England. There will be slight chances tonight along the KY/TN border, and chances increase during the day tomorrow as another lobe of vorticity passes through the upper low.
Will have some cirrus around 25 kft spreading Southeast around the ridge to the West, and possibly some lower to middle clouds between 5-10 kft rounding the upper low to the East. A broad cutoff trough over the Ohio River Valley and an upper ridge over the Plains will keep a dry northwesterly flow over the area. Overnight lows should fall into the low to mid 50s areawide and a few places in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas should cool into the upper 40s.
1050 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front will push through tonight. Drier and cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend. Cold front continues pushing eastward with drier air residing over the Midlands. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley will shift to the northeast during the period. Air mass drying out during the period with dew points falling into the lower 50s.
613 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low continuing to spin over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley with ridging over the Plains. At the surface, a ridge extends from the northern Miss valley down into central TX. Upper low is expected to remain stationary through Fri as some southern stream energy lifts across the desert sw. This will keep conditions across the Plains Fri fairly similar to today, with temps a degree or two warmer. Upper low will finally start to lift back to the north Fri evening into Sat as some more robust upper energy comes on shore over the Pacific NW.
1242 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Low pressure will slowly drift back north into Michigan and eventually Ontario over the next couple of days. Coverage will increase even further Friday as strongest wave rotates around the upper low and it moves back north across the area.
843 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Large upper low continues to spin over southern Kentucky early this evening and is forecast to only slowly drift north over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, several weak disturbances were rotating west around the northern periphery of the upper low and tracking into our area bringing scattered showers.
629 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Very little has changed in the larger scale weather pattern as upper- level low pressure remains on a wobbly sit 'n spin in the Ohio Valley with a sharp ridge aloft back across the Dakotas. Exception could be some areas near the Buffalo Ridge later tonight and early Friday morning that hints in hi-res solutions to higher threat of widespread lower clouds and visibilities. Ridge aloft will narrow somewhat on Friday as upper low starts to wobble back toward the northwest, and wave pushes into upper ridge in the northern high plains. Low level ridge will remain in place, and southerly gradient increases just a bit across the James valley.
708 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Strong downslope winds will be possible along the western slopes of the ridges in the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities with strong perpendicular component, ridgetop inversion, and negative wind shear meeting critical value thresholds. Wind orientation and degraded mixing still raises uncertainty but given the magnitude and projected height of the low level jet the wind advisory will remain in effect through mid Friday morning.
324 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure exits tonight.
An upper level trof wl be moving acrs the state today. Cooler, below average temps are in store for today with highs mostly in the 50s ovr El Paso county with mainly 60s ovr the rest of the southeast plains, and in the 50s to around 60 in high valley locations. The upr trof wl move out of the area for tonight, with pcpn chances ending. MOS guidance lows for tonight are around freezing acrs all the sern plains.
341 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure will weaken and move to the east tonight and Friday.
With regards to temperatures, another above normal day is expected on Friday afternoon as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains over us. By Friday night, the ridge will weaken enough for a cold front to drop into the region. No rain is expected with the passage, only a drier and slightly cooler airmass.
143 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure with dry weather today. Moisture from Matthew and an approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance for rain into this weekend.
157 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 Significant changes to the weather including much cooler temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation are in the offing across west Texas and southeast New Mexico beginning tonight and continuing through the weekend. An upper level trough across the Rockies and Plains will move northeast into the northern Plains Friday. This will allow a strong cold front to plunge south through the forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. Much cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected Friday with very windy conditions expected through the Guadalupe Pass of west Texas.
643 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 The main aviation concern will be a strong cold front moving through the area late this evening/overnight. A vigorous upper-level trough is moving into the southern Rockies this morning. Late in the evening, a cold front will be moving into the area from the north. The front will clear our southern counties before daybreak with a drier and cooler airmass moving in at the surface. The strong cold front will have cleared the area by daybreak on Friday resulting in strong winds persisting through the day. These winds will slowly relax through the day as surface ridging builds in behind the front. By late in the weekend, a trough moving across the southwestern US will be weakening but will be strong enough to draw low level moisture back into the region.
This system is forecast to move to the east and drag a warm front north across the area through today. The main forcing for storms should be the cold front as it sweeps into the area. Guidance is in good agreement with track of the low pressure after 00z Friday. The center of the low will stay just out of the area as it moves to the NE through the period.
Cold front will be moving into the area later on Friday allowing for a turn to northerly winds.
The main weather story will be the passage of a dry cold front on Friday. As for tonight, an upper-level ridge building to the north of Matthew will keep skies clear over our region. This trough will flatten the ridge over our region, allowing a cold front to move southeast.
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will remain centered over southern New England into Friday.
315 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through Friday night.
Main change was to increase POPs in and near the Augusta/Choteau to Lewistown corridor, where a localized band of precipitation should persist through early afternoon before dissipating in response to a stabilizing high pressure ridge building eastward into the CWA.
A passing cold front will then bring another chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
39 Another dry and breezy day across the forecast area as high pressure continues to wedge down the Atlantic Coast. Rain chances increase on Friday with the highest pops east central and lowest chances west.
/issued 230 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/ Weather map shows high pressure ridging over most of the eastern U. Don't expect cooler air however, as highs today will reach the lower 90s. About the same story for Friday with highs rebounding into the lower 90s. The weekend continues to shape up with much cooler air and no precipitation across the region.
Away from rapidly moving cells, sustained northwest to north winds will increasing and range from 15 to 20 mph in the Lower Keys to 20 to 30 mph in the Middle and Upper Keys respectively.
High pressure will build in Friday night into this weekend with mainly light northerly winds and low seas.