Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
800 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will allow dry conditions through tonight. As the high begins to slide east of the region on Tuesday, a warm front will lift into the region during the day, bringing a chance for light rain Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
727 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday.
High pressure was over eastern WI and IL this afternoon, with plenty of sun to be had with some mid and high level cloudiness streaming SE across IA and southern IL. Tonight, high pressure will move off to the east as a warm front lifts into MO ahead of the well advertised storm system. Maintained the low slight chance POPs for drizzle for the pre-dawn and morning hours. Temps will need to be watched closely, for possible freezing drizzle on mainly elevated surfaces should the drizzle materialize as expected and temps drop below 32 for a time. Tuesday, the warm front will lift into the southern parts of the area with a slight chance for light rain through the afternoon hours.
High pressure over the peninsula early in the period will venture into the western Atlc providing a light, but onshore flow areawide as the pressure gradient remains weak. The pressure gradient remains light on Tue, though winds become onshore areawide during the aftn as high pressure moves over the western Atlc. High pressure crosses the Florida peninsula emerging into the western Atlc.
725 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 High pressure will push southeast over the area late tonight. A warm front will move northeast through the central Appalachians Tuesday.
A storm system will impact the area, bringing gusty winds and a good chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers with much cooler temperatures on Tuesday.
Upper level trough shifting east of the area this evening. Upper level ridge offshore tonight moving through Tuesday.
314 AM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Highs today will reach into the lower to middle 40s as clouds increase. Rain chances move in for tonight as a warm front lifts north through the region. A brief period of a wintry mix is possible across south central Michigan into extreme northwest Ohio, but no travel issues are expected as surface temperatures quickly warm above freezing. It will be noticeably warmer on Wednesday with highs ranging from the middle 60s across south central Michigan to the lower 70s south of US 24. Look for more showers, along with a chance of thunderstorms in advance of a cold front, especially for Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. This feature will shift east into the Lower Great Lakes/Southern Ontario and allow the initial low level thermal trough across region to lift northeast through east later today.
Otherwise, overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 60s.
A cold front will bring the opportunity for showers along with gusty west winds on Wednesday. Cooler and somewhat unsettled weather is expected to persist through the end of the work week.
128 AM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a closed low over Lake Ontario and a trough on the west coast with a closed low off the CA coast. This closed low and trough will head east and maintains split flow with the northern branch making it to the northern plains 00z Wed while the southern system kicks out and forms a closed low in the northern plains then.
Severe storms remain on track for Wednesday, associated with the passage of a negatively-tilted southern branch upper level trof.
Low temperatures will fall to either side of freezing and up to the mid 30s along the Missouri River as increasing cloud cover along with the winds will prevent efficient radiational cooling.
An upper level low pressure system thats moved across the Upper Great Lakes and New England states has moved into over Nova Scotia. This trough and attendant cold front will traverse the region on tomorrow. Dewpoints in the low 60s, PWATs in the 1-1.
406 AM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure will build over the area through this evening.
Latest water vapor loop in combination with recent RAP model initializations early this afternoon showed a strong closed low off the CA coast and mid level ridging over the high Plains. If we end up cooler, the severe weather threat may be less. Colder and drier air will move back in after the cold front passes Tuesday night, and Wednesday will be cool as well - with highs mainly in the 40s.
Automated surface observing platforms in the valleys reported rain while the higher elevation sensors indicated snow. Model consensus has the low tracking over Las Vegas at 12Z, moving east-northeastward across northern Arizona this morning before sweeping over the southern High Plains as an open wave this afternoon. Though temperatures will be much cooler today, the airmass is expected to remain mild enough to keep snow out of all but the highest valleys where a mix is possible. Snowfall will continue in the mountains in the wake of the trough tonight as flow shifts to the northwest. Meanwhile, highs Wednesday will be a bit cooler toward the Divide, but largely unchanged over eastern Utah and western edge of Colorado.
Upper level trough shifting east of the area this evening. Upper level ridge offshore tonight moving through Tuesday. Weak front arriving Wednesday followed by an upper level trough Wednesday night.
A filling upper low currently entering SOCAL will push eastward overnight and into Tuesday. The second is the actual cold front, which just moved through the Lower Colorado River zones. The best period of forcing is likely the cold frontal passage, which gets to Flagstaff around 12Z. However, due to the warmer nature of this system and the fact that it is late March, most accumulations will be found around 7000 feet or higher.
Broad clockwise flow around the high has resulted in northeasterly flow across much of the region this morning. Clouds will thicken up and become more widespread through the rest of the morning as a warm front approaches from the southwest. This will aid in pushing the warm front farther to the north. Overnight lows will be a bit tricky, as they'll likely occur early in the evening and then gradually rise with the passage of the warm front. At the surface, a deepening cyclone will be moving from the Great Plains towards the Midwest dragging a cold front and associated line of storms through the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.
High pressure flips east of the Appalachians and a warm front moves into the TN valley from the southwest later today which will allow light and variable winds early this morning, to become SSW at KCHA and KTYS by this afternoon. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 54 82 58 69 / 0 0 0 100 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 49 80 58 72 / 10 0 0 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 66 49 80 57 70 / 10 0 0 90 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 38 78 57 73 / 20 0 0 80 70 TN.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the interior and the 70s along the coast, coolest along the southeast Georgia coastal areas.
A southerly low level flow pattern will also continue tonight into Tuesday between a ridge of high pressure to our east and a deepening low pressure system over the southern Rockies and central Plains. Dry conditions will continue Tuesday underneath the zonal flow/weak ridging pattern aloft. We expect another very warm afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s over much of the region, except mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. Overnight lows are forecast to range in the lower to mid 60s over much of the area, except for a few cooler spots in the interior falling into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. A vigorous mid and upper level jet will spread eastward across the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday ahead of the trough that will be advancing eastward across the Plains.
206 AM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania Tuesday, then push off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida as the center of high pressure moves eastward over the peninsula today. High pressure will slide eastward into the western Atlantic as we move into the middle part of the week. An increasing pressure gradient will develop as a low pressure system develops over the Plains.
214 AM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A cold front moved through the forecast area early this morning. An upper trough will move through eastern Montana during the day today. The upper trough will linger over SE Montana this evening which will allow a chance of snow showers to continue in the east. High pressure remains over the area on Wednesday with mostly clear skies and light winds. March sun and upper ridge moving in will bring somewhat warmer temperatures.
With ridging both aloft and at the surface, broad subsidence will lead to increasing temperatures under sunny skies, with afternoon temperatures expected top out around 90 over the interior. Otherwise, the ridging will favor patchy fog development around sunrise this morning, and perhaps a few patches Wednesday morning as well.
Plenty of sunshine to push Max temps into the lower/middle 80s inland, while the onshore flow will keep Coastal SE GA/Coastal NE FL in the 70s this afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the interior and the 70s along the coast, coolest along the southeast Georgia coastal areas.
High pressure remains in control across the area and continues to slide east. As this features moves eastward it will impinge upon the high over our area, despite the vast distance between these features.
High pressure flips east of the Appalachians and a warm front moves into the TN valley from the southwest later today which will allow light and variable winds early this morning, to become SSW at KCHA and KTYS by this afternoon. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 53 79 57 70 / 0 0 0 100 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 49 79 58 73 / 0 0 0 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 65 47 78 57 71 / 10 0 0 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 42 74 57 74 / 10 0 0 80 80 NC.
406 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 An upper level trough will traverse the plains today and tonight. A dry line will sweep across southwestern Kansas today as a warm front surges north from Oklahoma. As the upper trough passes tonight, rain showers are expected to develop across western Kansas and then move southeastward. NAM soundings are showing moist neutral lapse rates or even some light instability above the low level baroclinic zone; so heavier snow showers or bands of snow can't be ruled out with some light accumulations--most likely an inch or less. A closed low in northwest flow is expected to move across Kansas Wednesday night.
648 AM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Highs today will reach into the lower to middle 40s as clouds increase. Rain chances move in for tonight as a warm front lifts north through the region. A brief period of a wintry mix is possible across south central Michigan into extreme northwest Ohio, but no travel issues are expected as surface temperatures quickly warm above freezing. It will be noticeably warmer on Wednesday with highs ranging from the middle 60s across south central Michigan to the lower 70s south of US 24. Look for more showers, along with a chance of thunderstorms in advance of a cold front, especially for Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. This feature will shift east into the Lower Great Lakes/Southern Ontario and allow the initial low level thermal trough across region to lift northeast through east later today.
As upper level heights gradually rise, expect a bit warmer today, especially across the interior away from the Gulf/Sea breeze. Temps along the Atlantic will be slightly cooler. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida as the center of high pressure moves eastward over the peninsula today. High pressure will slide eastward into the western Atlantic as we move into the middle part of the week. An increasing pressure gradient will develop as a low pressure system develops over the Plains.
Scattered rain and snow showers have developed along this backdoor cold front. While around an inch of snow will occur at higher elevations like Georgetown Lake and Homestake pass, road temperatures will be at or just above freezing. Any snow that occurs in the lower valleys across Southwest Montana will be an inch or less and noticed just on the grassy surfaces.
Closed low SW of KLAS will be filling/opening up as it moves across the Desert SW today. Backwash cloudiness will occasionally spill Wwd over the Sierra Crest with a chance of light showers over the higher elevations. Behind it Nly winds should increase enough to mix out/erode the low clouds and fog as high pressure builds over Norcal. An upper trof is forecast to move through B. Minor cooling expected on Wed as high pressure temporarily weakens. Breezy Nly winds are expected on Thu as the trof moves Ewd and high pressure once again rebuilds over Norcal with further warming.
The arrival of a cold front on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers to northeast Washington and far north Idaho.
430 AM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Upper level low will track from southern California into Arizona this morning and weaken. In the mean time, a new upper level low forms over far northeast Colorado late this morning and moves into Nebraska this afternoon. As far as precipitation goes, models converging on an area of rain and mountain snow forming on the back side of the upper level low as it forms over northeast Colorado later this morning.
Reinforcing high pressure will push seaward from the Carolina coast late today and through tonight producing a SE wind flow across the area. Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will push across the FL peninsula and merge with high pressure along the Carolina coast and move further seaward tonight. Speeds increasing to 7-12 kts today and 12-16 kts tonight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
An upper level trough will traverse the plains today and tonight. A dry line will sweep across southwestern Kansas today as a warm front surges north from Oklahoma. As the upper trough passes tonight, rain showers are expected to develop across western Kansas and then move southeastward. NAM soundings are showing moist neutral lapse rates or even some light instability above the low level baroclinic zone; so heavier snow showers or bands of snow can't be ruled out with some light accumulations--most likely an inch or less. A closed low in northwest flow is expected to move across Kansas Wednesday night.
Widespread shower activity is expected today as a Pacific low pressure system moves eastward into Arizona. Upper low across central California is clearly evident on the latest water vapor imagery. Further east conditions continue to moisten in the lower levels and showers have filled in quickly across south-central Arizona early this morning. General consensus from the HREF is shower activity will continue early this morning across south-central Arizona as the upper low weakens and moves steadily eastward. Further east however, higher rain rates are anticipated where the southwesterly flow ahead of the trough can maximize orographic lift. Lapse rates will steepen by mid-morning as the upper low moves into northern Arizona. Latest guidance continues to indicate temperatures this afternoon behind the trough axis will struggle to even reach the 70 degree mark in Phoenix.
530 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Northwest flow aloft that has been in place across the region since last weekend will back to the southwest over the course of the day, as a longwave ridge at the 500-mb level translates eastward ahead of a complex mid-level trough over the western CONUS.
Today through Wednesday night Upper low in the southwest U.
504 AM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will drift east across Central Pennsylvania later this afternoon before reaching the east coast late tonight.
This will be short lived though as northerly winds will quickly become strong on the back side of the trough across central SD later in the afternoon. Still anticipate a gradual switch to snow overnight as cooler air filters in from the north. , still show at least a small threat for freezing rain or even sleet (rather elevated warm layer) mainly along the I-29 corridor and points east. Manipulated the top-down grids to keep any mention of freezing precip out of the forecast west of the Glacial Lakes based on sounding trends and other various model data/output. Snow accumulations by the time things end later on Wednesday still feature the highest amounts over the eastern CWA, ranging from about 1 to as much as 3 or 4 inches across the higher elevations in the Glacial Lakes/Sisseton Hills region.
421 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Concerns are mainly for freezing rain potential tonight. Global models are more consistent on the evolution of the surface features with an area of low pressure developing across the central Plains this afternoon, and moving this feature over Nebraska/Iowa and into southwest Wi by Wednesday afternoon. As per freezing rain, this is limited to areas over west central Wi, and parts of central Mn.
With the main upper low moving inland to into Arizona, and the smaller upper low over the forecast area filling and moving south, showers have moved south out of the forecast area. The stratus deck over the region will start the day of relatively warm, and this will burn off and will give way to a warmer day and mostly sunny skies for most areas. High temperatures are likely to be 3 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday's.
A storm system will impact the area today, bringing gusty winds and a good chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers along with much cooler temperatures. A storm system will impact the area today, bringing a good chance of valley rain and high elevation snow showers, a few thunderstorms, possibly some small hail, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures versus what occurred this past weekend.
250 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Quiet conditions are expected over the region tonight as warmer air returns to the region for one day on Wednesday.
The large upper low which brought widespread precipitation to our area on Tuesday is now centered over central AZ.
With the cold front still to our west tomorrow morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop and sweep through the region during the day, although severe weather is not expected.
As the low pressure area moves close to northwest IL tomorrow, the pressure gradient will tighten, increasing the winds and the waa. Showers are possible late tonight through tomorrow, but the main focus will be a line of thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the cold front tomorrow morning and move through the CWA during the afternoon. Continued waa tomorrow will bring much warmer temps to the area with most areas in the 60s with lower to middle 70s in southeast IL. Cooler temps are expected Wed night with temps in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Warm front continues to lift northward, currently entering far southwestern sections of the CWA. The highest threat for severe weather will be across eastern Kansas into the western quarter of Missouri, where in addition to the brief spin-up, quarter-sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible. With the clouds/precip and CAA, a much cooler day is expected with temperatures steady or slowly falling during the day, mainly in the 40s by mid/late afternoon.
304 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure builds in from the west tonight before cresting over the area on Wednesday.
243 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A beautiful and quiet weather day across the area as high pressure remains over the area for at least one more day. A strong cold front will start to push through the southeast tomorrow.
141 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Strong winds this afternoon and evening as low pressure approaches the region. With the passage of the warm front tonight. Wednesday will be much warmer with an increasing chance of thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight. Cooler temperatures return to close out the work week. This feature will shift east into the Lower Great Lakes/Southern Ontario and allow the initial low level thermal trough across region to lift northeast through east later today.
An upper level trough that is currently across the Desert Southwest will approach West Central Texas this evening, resulting in an increase in large scale ascent. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline by mid to late evening. As the front overtakes the dryline and better lift moves in with the approach of the aforementioned trough, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across our western counties between 8 PM and 9PM. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s across the region. Cooler temperatures are anticipated on Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 across the northern half of the area, to the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the area.
Obs behind the front were generally in the low 70s with dew points in the mainly in the upper 50s. At any rate, question remains how far the warm front will migrate north.
Surface analysis places a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico eastward to the western Atlantic coastline, with a stationary front draped to the north from the Midwest eastward to the Southeast. What will become increasingly significant locally is a potent trough over the four corners region, which will quickly eject eastward over the next couple of days.
259 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A cold front moved through western and north central Nebraska today. Cooler air within the storms means that hail is possible, but it should stay subsevere. A secondary upper level low will move into Nebraska from the north tomorrow morning which should provide enough lift for additional light snow in northern Nebraska during the day. It will be showery in nature and as temperatures increase during the day to above freezing, it will likely transition to a rain snow mix or snow pellets. The highest totals will be near the South Dakota state line, between 1 and 2 inches at most. Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday night, and with decent radiational cooling and northwesterly winds lows will cool into the low 20s.
218 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Large-scale ridging across the Florida Peninsula, combined with a lack of moisture from the surface all the way up to the tropopause, continues to result in nearly cloud-free conditions for all Florida Keys island communities. Ample solar insolation has allowed temperatures to rise towards the advertised high temperatures in the lower 80s. Sprawling high pressure over the Florida Peninsula will slowly trek eastward tonight through the next several days.
For tonight, as high pressure begins to build over the region low clouds and fog will once again be possible. High pressure building over the region briefly gets knocked down on Wednesday as a dry front pushes through the region. High pressure quickly rebuilds to round out the workweek and heading into the weekend. The building high pressure will lead to a warming and drying trend as temperatures are at or above seasonal averages. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Warm front had pushed north into northeast Kansas at 18Z with dewpoints in the 50s in the warm sector. Main forcing mechanism early on looks to be dry line convergence in south-central Kansas late this afternoon with storms spreading northeast into the early evening, then cold frontal convergence pushing in after sunset from northwest to southeast.
Amplified trough continues to shift east of the region tonight and into Wednesday. Both winds and shower activity look to subside through the evening, leaving broad cool high pressure in place. Sun evening is when this upper level ridge breaks down, and Mon night looks very wet on the deterministic guidance, which the clusters are less aggressive with the amount of precipitation and the PoP. This trough is slow to clear and the northern and eastern mountains will have lingering rain/high elevation rain and snow to deal with to the end of the period.