Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A MATURE CYCLONE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS SOUTH TO WHITE SANDS. INCREASINGLY DEEP AND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BEHIND A SHARPENING DRYLINE PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. INSUFFICIENT ASCENT AND MEAN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD KEEP THIS DRYLINE VOID OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR DOMAIN. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY.
In general it's been a mostly clear night thus far with deep ridging settling into the region at the moment. Some upper 80s will be possible in the typically warmer locations.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
909 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016 Skies are mostly clear with only a little bit of cirrus coming over the top of the ridge in northern IL. The winds should also keep temps noticeably warmer than last night. Another beautiful spring day is on tap Sunday, although it is expected to be noticeably warmer and breezier than today. These conditions will be provided by strengthening return flow on the back side of upper level/surface ridging.
A DRY SLOT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE EVENING MAINLY DRY BEFORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE WYOMING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH SNOW BACK INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WYOMING OVERNIGHT. BEST QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL AROUND 00Z THEN STRONGER QG DESCENT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
24/06Z TAF CYCLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL FURTHER DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER WITH SNOW LEVELS OF 4-5K FEET. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN IDAHO. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND INTO SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT-LIVED UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER THE PACNW ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE INTO NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL WRAP INTO SW IDAHO /MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE/ SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
838 PM PDT SAT APR 23 2016 Dry and a little warmer today. More unsettled and cooler weather Sunday-Monday, then again midweek. Weak ridging today as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen over the region tonight and Sunday and may bring some showers to the mountains. The center of the trough will be over Central Nevada on Monday and may bring some wrap around moisture and showers to the Sierra Nevada.
218 AM PDT SUN APR 24 2016 Low pressure will move into western Nevada today and Monday with more showers and below average temperatures expected. As the low continues to push onshore, cold air aloft will allow for increased instability which should result in shower development along with some isolated thunderstorms. Breezy west winds will develop again this afternoon and will persist overnight with gustier conditions expected by Monday as the surface gradient strengthens behind the low. A second wave of precipitation will develop by Monday morning as a secondary trough rotates across the northern Sierra. The core of the this low and forcing via deformation has shifted eastward which diminishes the likelihood of accumulating snow for areas below 5,000 feet.
313 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016 SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY THE AREA DURING THE COMING WEEK. THE STRONGEST NEAR TERM UPPER TROUGH PER THE LATEST MODELS WILL BE PASSING BY AT A TIME NOT FAVORABLE FOR FULL WIND POTENTIAL.
Increasing dewpoints should result in overnight lows several degrees warmer than what we saw this morning, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs will range from mid to upper 80s in our western counties to the low to mid 80s in the eastern counties.
High pressure continued to shift eastward over the Southeast United States this evening. while two areas of low pressure. This will help to keep temperatures warmer compared to the past couple of nights. as temps as of 9pm were running a couple to near 10 degrees warmer than 24-hrs ago. Low temps by Sunday morning should be in the 50s for most locations with some locations holding in the low 60s.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH/FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S. THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TRI-CITIES AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOWEVER. COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE UPPER LOW MOVE. BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 355 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/ LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING ALOFT CROSSING TEXAS. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER UPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. BACKED OFF SOME OF THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE SUPERBLEND AND MONITOR THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS STATES WILL SET UP A GOOD SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
It will be breezy as a storm system develops across the High Plains region into the northern Plains.
THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS MILDER AIR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HOLD THE EXISTING WEAKER FRONT IN PLACE DESPITE THIS PUSH OF MILDER AIR IN THE AREA. WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN FOCUSED WELL NORTH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FGEN FORCING STEADILY INCREASES WITH THE APPOACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. WITH WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY THAT TIME AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASE AS THE LOW PROGRESS THROUGH LOWER MI.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN CENTRAL MN ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND NEAR A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SD BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE DVN CWA IN THE WARM AND WINDY SECTOR. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MONDAY CONTINUES TO OFFER UP ONE MORE WARM LATE SPRING DAY WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION BEFORE A COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE TRY TO NOSE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO OUR CWA.
420 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A MATURE CYCLONE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS SOUTH TO WHITE SANDS. INCREASINGLY DEEP AND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BEHIND A SHARPENING DRYLINE PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. INSUFFICIENT ASCENT AND MEAN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD KEEP THIS DRYLINE VOID OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR DOMAIN. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY.
125 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER SOME. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL.
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING POTENT H5 S/W TROUGH /CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COAHUILA AND CHIHUAHUA MX STATE LINE/ AND A DEVELOPING MODEST LLJ JET ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POTENT H5 S/W TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE SAY SUNDAY. I DID LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AS S/W TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.
637 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 08Z AND WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS COLDER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL. JUST ABOUT ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY. WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK. OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STORM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
350 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
1006 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
310 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
322 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM NORTH DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL TURN WINDS TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. NE WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURRED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE RESULTING CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM WATERS. /ALM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
An upper low over north central Mexico will move east continuing rain chances in our southern CWA through tonight before westerly flow brings drier air tomorrow.
Temperatures will be considerably cooler but expect a gradual warming trend through the week. Expect showers to affect the higher terrain east of the basin.
409 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH RIDGING PRESENT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL SPRING NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS AND EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE TOWARDS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT THROUGH NORTHERN WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL INTENSIFY AND DRIVE A TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRIVEN BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
921 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016 Going dry forecast the rest of the night still looks good as upper ridge moves over the area allowing for only a few high clouds to drift across the area. GKS Dry and warmer weather to persist on Sunday, but will see an increase in high clouds as next weather system approaches region.
308 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND WILL FINISH SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS THE HIGH TRAVERSES THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 15 THROUGH SUNRISE.
407 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GIVE THE AREA A SUNNY BUT COOL SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER MONDAY.
/ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/ UPPER RIDGE SLIDING EWD TONIGHT.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TOMORROW ABOUT 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO WALLOWA COUNTY FROM THE MOST RECENT UPPER LOW, NOW OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO, IS NOW STARTING TO DECREASE RAPIDLY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
558 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
551 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAT THIS PAST NIGHT. FOR NOW CONTINUED TO SIDE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MIXING WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG FRONT.
337 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAINS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER DIGGING TROF OVER THE W UNITED STATES. A FEW AREAS OF THE INTERIOR MAY REACH FREEZING BELOW 3KFT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
455 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
333 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO SLIDE OVERHEAD. RESULTING IN A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH LOWS REACHING THE UPPER 40S IN VALLEYS AND MID 50S ON RIDGETOPS. OWING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WOULD KEEP ANY STORMS LOW-TOPPED WITH UPDRAFTS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE LOCAL RIDGETOPS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE STRONG BLOCKING OVER CANADA AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A PAIR OF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL TAKE THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TRACKING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
332 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAT THIS PAST NIGHT. FOR NOW CONTINUED TO SIDE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MIXING WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG FRONT.
BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO C WI TNT WITH MILD AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE MAIN VORT MAX THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE C PLAINS INTO SRN MN. SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. RESULTING IN A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WARMER TEMPS. AS A FARTHER SOUTH COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS. WHILE A FARTHER SOUTH FRONT WILL BRING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AND KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
156 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SEEMS TO BE ON THE HIGH END FOR QPF BUT EVEN IT ENDS PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING. REGARDLESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AS MOISTURE RETURNS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW AND JET STREAM OUT OVER THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA.
NE WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURRED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE RESULTING CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM WATERS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
/39 RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THAT ENDING WELL EAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AT 90 WEST 25 NORTH. AND THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT 35 NORTH PULLS AWAY AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST.
1205 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WRN GRTLKS/OH VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS IS WARMER THAN LATEST MOS/MODEL BLENDS BUT CONSISTENT WITH GOING FCST AND SEEMS REASONABLE, SO MAINTAINED.
259 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
110 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION.
WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION RELATIVELY DRY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BAND FORMS ALONG THE NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WY. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN WY BY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH DRY. THE OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVIER QPF UP TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THUNDER COULD REACH TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MOIST/WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
400 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THERE ALSO IS A SUBTLE WAVE THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH AN ALMOST EAST/WEST WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO AN ALMOST NORTH/SOUTH DRY LINE. ALTHOUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. I HAVE SOME CONCERN OVER THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INTO MONDAY.
418 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
156 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND WILL FINISH SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS THE HIGH TRAVERSES THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
309 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 4 TO 8F COOLER TOMORROW THAN TODAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS PINPOINTED FOR THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
1005 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016 UPPER RIDGE SLIDING EWD TONIGHT.
312 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016 Going dry forecast the rest of the night still looks good as upper ridge moves over the area allowing for only a few high clouds to drift across the area. GKS Dry and warmer weather to persist on Sunday, but will see an increase in high clouds as next weather system approaches region.
A STORM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
152 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 94. 18Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY UP JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOCATED IN THIS AREA. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LITTLE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
This will not trim temperatures much on Sunday, but have a greater impact setting up cooler lows and highs by Monday afternoon.