Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure ridging south from the Great Lakes into the mid MS River Valley should bring generally rain-free conditions to the quad state region today. The ridge does seem fairly riddled with cloud cover though, so sunshine will likely be limited. Mid/upper level ridging will take place tonight into Monday.
With high pressure aloft building into the region, rain chances will be minimal today. Expect slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow as warm advection kicks in.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Weak ridging aloft accompanied by southerly boundary layer flow will facilitate warmer than normal temperatures through the start of the week. Highs today will reach the low to mid 50s in most locations, with increasing clouds tonight holding lows above freezing. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Monday as 925-850mb temps moderate to between +8C and +10C.
A dry pattern will continue today and tonight as ridging aloft slowly builds across the Central Plains during the period. A lack of precip chances will persist through the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft remains situated across the Central Plains.
Weak high pressure will build into the area today, bringing mainly dry conditions into Monday.
An upper ridge builds over the Great Plains, leading to well above normal temperatures.
/Issued 443 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ While weak upper level ridging will continue much of the Gulf coast states, a weak short wave will move across northeast portions of the Gulf of Mexico through late this afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers across southern portions of central Georgia today.
Little changes today as a closed mid-level low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest drifts southward along the northern California coast.
A weak ridge of high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks today and with limited potential for mixing, a low overcast should remain in place. We will get some thinning of the clouds later today/tonight with a ridge aloft/subsidence trying to thin the clouds from the top. However, we might have a tough time mixing out the moisture in the lower levels until Monday. Monday: A low level southerly return flow will kick in with warmer temperatures.
An upper low and trough will be situated along the California coast today through Monday. Skies will be partly sunny today with dry conditions prevailing for the lower elevations. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer with most areas in the 50s. At the same time, a cold front will drop across the forecast area during the afternoon.
558 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak cold front crosses today. A weak cold front with little upper air support will move across the region today. Scattered showers are possible today and tonight along and behind the cold front, but chances at any one location are not that great.
High pressure and a broad area of subsidence is building into Middle Tennessee.
This will continue to produce convective rain/snow west of the divide, with snow limited to the highest elevations.
A weak area of high pressure will move through the state and by mid day winds will turn to the south. Upper ridging returns to much of the country tonight into Monday. Rain chances will remain low today with the cold front in southern Louisiana.
High pressure will settle north of the area tonight, bringing back a brief period of dry conditions before rain chances arrive Monday night. With high pressure building east across the Great Lakes, drier air will be pushing into northern Ohio this afternoon. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the mid to upper 60s in the lower Scioto Valley and northeast Kentucky. On Monday, the high will push into the Appalachians. Return flow of moisture will begin and convergence will begin along a developing warm front in the far north.
Could not rule out a few sprinkles or patchy drizzle from the low level cloud deck this morning.
522 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over southeast SK, with frontal boundary stretching from western ND to far northwest SD and southern MT. Upper level analysis shows zonal flow over the region, with low pressure continuing to slowly sink south along the west coast.
The lower cloud axis may settle south into parts of KY this morning, with mid clouds persisting as well. High temps this afternoon should range from the lower 60s in southern IN given more/lower clouds to around 70/lower 70s in south-central KY where more afternoon sun is expected. The week will start out with broad upper level ridging expanding across much of the central and eastern CONUS.
1016 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak cold front crosses today. A weak cold front with little upper air support will move across the region today. Scattered showers are possible today and tonight along and behind the cold front, but chances at any one location are not that great.
It appears the FG/BR will clear first with the coming warmer air and cigs will lift slowly if at all for a couple hrs, but make better strides with heating from above later. Our balloon sounding showed moisture only up to 5kft and then much drier above so the sun will get in warming the low level air and lifting the cigs. Warm front lifts back Mon. We will be about 5 degrees warmer to start the week and high temps will be from mid 70s to low 80s.
High pressure will settle north of the area tonight, bringing back a brief period of dry conditions before rain chances arrive Monday night. Latest surface analysis shows a weak, slow moving cold front over southeast Ohio. High pressure to build east across the Great Lakes -- with drier air advecting into northern Ohio this afternoon. Highs will range from the lower/middle 50s in the north to the mid to upper 60s in the lower Scioto Valley and northeast Kentucky. On Monday, the high will push into the Appalachians. Return flow of moisture will begin and convergence will begin along a developing warm front in the far north.
This will result in an influx of low level moisture with dewpoint temperatures progged to rise into the lower 50s late in the period. Highs on Monday are expected to top out near 80 over portions of central KS while much of southeast KS sees highs in the lower 70s.
Lee troughing will get underway which will boost the warmup another 10 degrees across the plains. The lee trough and morning sunshine will aid mixing, and thus, we should see southwest/west breezes increase in the afternoon. The first half of the upcoming week promises to be warm and dry as an upper ridge parks over Colorado and the southern plains.
Upper level low will continue to move south on Sunday. A weak upper level trough will move over the area from the north on Sunday before giving way to a high pressure system on Monday.
We will be about 5 degrees warmer to start the week and high temps will be from mid 70s to low 80s.
623 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Another quiet day is expected today with daytime temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. A mild night is expected with lows in the lower 40s.
/issued 305 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ Morning fog and chill will give way to much warmer conditions this afternoon. A large, cut- off upper low currently along the West Coast will move slowly east this week keeping our region in southwesterly flow aloft. Ahead of the upper low, temperatures will remain well above normal each afternoon.
A broad upper ridge will then build over the region through Monday afternoon, with this mornings rain tapering off from west to east across the entire forecast area by noon. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s inland areas, and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. High temperatures on Monday will be warmer in the mid to upper 80s inland areas, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast.
320 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over southeast SK, with frontal boundary stretching from western ND to far northwest SD and southern MT. Upper level analysis shows zonal flow over the region, with low pressure continuing to slowly sink south along the west coast.
400 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 An upper low and trough will be situated along the California coast today through Monday. Skies will be partly sunny today with dry conditions prevailing for the lower elevations. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer with most areas in the 50s. At the same time, a cold front will drop across the forecast area during the afternoon.
/Issued 256 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ The high temperature forecast for Today is highly dependent on the cloud cover.
950 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak frontal boundary has all but moved S/E of the cntrl TN Valley this late Sun morning, as a weak upper ridge axis remains in place over much of the wrn/cntrl Gulf states. Light NE flow thru the low levels has allowed slightly drier air to spread into the area, as evidenced by mostly sunny skies in place. The mid level ridge axis will slowly slide eastward during the overnight hours before weakening somewhat during the day Monday, as a strong low moves ashore the West Coast.
402 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Another quiet day is expected today with daytime temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. A mild night is expected with lows in the lower 40s.
An upper-level ridge will quickly take hold again and work to suppress shower and thunderstorm development, although conditions on Monday could support a few isolated showers primarily south of I-4. The high pressure will also usher in the return of above- normal temperatures, potentially flirting with records once again near the end of the work week.
The current forecast looks good for the area this afternoon with small, or slight chance pops for a shower or thunderstorm, and mainly limited to the higher terrain features.
Given north to northwesterly flow at the surface and through the lower/mid levels, dry air will remain in place making for a fairly pleasant day across the region. The mid level ridge axis will slowly slide eastward during the overnight hours before weakening somewhat during the day Monday, as a strong low moves ashore the West Coast.
Upper low off northern California 39N/127W continues to move south, with southwesterly flow aloft circulating moisture mainly into Oregon today and Idaho tonight and Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The main story for today has been the much cooler temperatures across Deep South Texas, in addition to occasional drizzle throughout the day. This is a result of a stalled front just off the lower Texas coast, which moved through yesterday. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible with instability increasing with warmer southerly flow returning. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the low to mid 80s Monday afternoon for most inland locations. Humidity will also return quickly with dew points rising into the lower 70s to start the upcoming week.
However, absent a notable warm front like last night, fog shouldn't be as robust. /issued 305 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ Morning fog and chill will give way to much warmer conditions this afternoon. A large, cut- off upper low currently along the West Coast will move slowly east this week keeping our region in southwesterly flow aloft. Ahead of the upper low, temperatures will remain well above normal each afternoon.
The forecast period begins with a weak ridge moving over the Central U. Normal temperatures for this time of the year are in the low 60s. Monday, the area will remain under southwest flow while an upper level low comes ashore over Southern California. Temperatures in the region will be warmer as a ridge continues to sit over the Central U. Highs will range from the mid-70s along and north of the Kansas Nebraska border to the low 80s in the southeastern part of the CWA. Relative humidity values will be in the low to mid teens along and west of a line from Yuma to Goodland to Russell Springs.
151 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Closed western CONUS upper trough is supporting downstream upper level ridging over the Northern Plains with SW mean flow.
Weak frontal boundary has all but moved S/E of the cntrl TN Valley this late Sun morning, as a weak upper ridge axis remains in place over much of the wrn/cntrl Gulf states. Light NE flow thru the low levels has allowed slightly drier air to spread into the area, as evidenced by mostly sunny skies in place. The mid level ridge axis will slowly slide eastward during the overnight hours before weakening somewhat during the day Monday, as a strong low moves ashore the West Coast.
230 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Satellite imagery shows a closed low off the coast of northern CA, a trof extending up the coast, and southwest flow aloft into our region. Diurnal instability under PV axis along with the arrival of a cold front will bring what should be the most convective day we've seen yet in our cwa in 2020. Showers will diminish after sunset, but some light activity may linger overnight along PV axis draped across our south, as split trof is slow to exit entirely. All lower elevation precipitation will be rain, but mountains above 7kft should see some snow with the trof passage tomorrow.
1107 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 The models have really changed their tune over the last 2 days by now showing the development of a weak low pressure center along a warm front over South Florida tonight and Monday. Extending to its east is a warm front draped across the Florida Peninsula at roughly the latitude of Lake Okeechobee. By tonight as the upper impulse forcing the Central Gulf MCS reaches South Florida, a weak but closed low pressure center will form over the southern peninsula. A warm front will develop this afternoon and evening over the Central or Southern Florida Peninsula, placing the Keys in southerly flow south of the front.
A few scattered cumulus clouds have developed along the ridgetop locations this afternoon that almost reminds me of a summertime weak low-level flow setup. Mild overnight temps in the 50s tonight will be followed by another very warm day tomorrow, which may end up being warmer than today based on 1000-850mb thickness values.
With a weak surface pressure gradient associated with the Lake Michigan High, the low cloudiness will slowly erode rather than quickly move out. Temperatures will bottom out from 45 to 50 tonight, and in the lower 70s for highs Monday.
Despite the cloudiness, it will be warmer as we get rid of this chilly airmass.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Upper ridge axis continues to bisect the CONUS and our region ahead of a cut-off low just off the coast of nrn CA. High pressure remains in place at the sfc. We may see some decrease in cloud cover this evening as the upper ridge amplifies a bit, but this will be short-lived. Clouds will again begin to increase towards sunrise Monday, as the ridge axis shifts ewd. Overnight min temps should be a bit milder than previous nights as the combination of warmer daytime temps and insulating cloud cover hold them up.
A warm front will lift north across the area through the period, with a transition to srly winds. A weak area of high pressure will move through the state and by mid day winds will turn to the south. Upper ridging returns to much of the country tonight into Monday. Rain chances will remain low today with the cold front in southern Louisiana.
Similar conditions expected on Monday as we remain in Southwest flow as a robust cyclone continues to hug the California Coast as it drops southward. Expect some of the western valleys could stay warmer than guidance with low pressure to the West enhancing the downvalley flow. Strayed toward the warmer guidance but this may even be to cool on places. A deep layer of southwest flow will remain over the region as the closed low slides along the southern California coast.
210 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 This afternoon small, or slight chance pops for a shower or thunderstorm, and mainly limited to the higher terrain features.
It is thinner than yesterday and temperatures have risen into the low to mid 50s across much of the area, with some upper 40s still up in central MO. A northern stream closed low was off the California coast with southwest flow from the Rockies into the northern and central plains. An upper flattened ridge axis was over the forecast region. At the surface, a ridge was over the area, but should shift to the east tonight.
Scattered cumulus clouds have developed across the higher terrain in our eastern counties and also in our southwest, but no showers have formed per radar imagery. Any fog should quickly burn off with another wonderful day expected with highs a bit warmer than today in the mid 70s to near 80.
Weak upper level trough moving over the area today with most of the showers activity confined to the Cascades. Upper level ridge offshore slowly building Monday with the ridge shifting inland in the middle of the week. rain possible late in the week as a week system moves over the top of the ridge.
The cloud deck continues to clear out this morning as upper ridging builds over the area. Dry weather with continued above normal temperatures are then expected for the remainder of the near term over the entire forecast area as the subtropical ridge re-intensifies over the Lower MS Valley region.
The near-term period will be dry with light and varible winds as ridging aloft becomes established, before a more active pattern begins unfolding over the next several days.
A vorticity maximum moving through the low-amplitude ridge aloft provides enough lift for scattered light showers and drizzle through Monday morning. Temperatures at sunrise remain above freezing, mostly in the low 40s as southerly winds at the surface continues to advect a warmer air mass into the region. This will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals (normal highs currently in the low 50s).
Some of the high-res models do show some light rain or drizzle in the western counties by sunrise. The high-res models are a lot more pessimistic then some of the global models.
320 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 The models have really changed their tune over the last 2 days by now showing the development of a weak low pressure center along a warm front over South Florida tonight and Monday.
Cool/dry northerly low layer winds are topped by some warmer overrunning air/resulting in continued/prevailing cloudiness.
Low stratus/IFR ceilings persist over the Coastal Bend and Brush Country while some drier air in the lower levels has pushed into the Victoria Crossroads and Mid-Coast region where breaks in the low clouds have occurred and VFR conditions are in place. But VFR conditions are expected through this evening for VCT area with this drier air in the lower levels pushing into the Coastal Bend leading to VFR in this region as well.
241 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 A weak and slow moving cold front will drop south across the region tonight with weak high pressure building in Monday.
With forecast high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, the current forecast for this afternoon is on track with no updates needed here. Tonight, An upper ridge begins to build north over the Mississippi River from upper level high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico. A weakly organized low level ridge over the Mississippi River shifts east to over the Eastern Seaboard in response, with a light and variable low level flow developing over land areas of the forecast area. With increasing subsidence from the building upper ridge, overnight low temperatures are expected to remain a bit above seasonal norms. Temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 50s inland are expected, with around 60 to the low 60s expected along the coast. High temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s expected Monday, upper 70s along the coast.
Dew points will continue to rise into the lower 40s tonight along and east of HWY 83. Winds will turn west across western Nebraska behind the trough.
High pressure will reside directly overhead for the balance of the night allowing effective radiational cooling to commence immediately upon loss of diurnal heating. Temperatures likely to top out a couple degrees warmer than today as another day of strong insolation further modifies the existing airmass in the absence of meaningful advection. Advancing moisture reservoir and low-level baroclinic zone clearly evident on channel 2 imagery this afternoon in the form of expanding stratus over the southern Plains extending northeast along the front into the Lower Great Lakes. This low-level moisture will pivot into the area from the southwest as isentropic ascent increases Monday afternoon into Monday night.
336 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure shifting through the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions and light winds tonight. A warm front lifting northeast across the area on Monday will bring warmer temperatures, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily to the northern and western parts of the state.
This will also have some impact on temperature trends and highs once again, showing a slower warm up and cooler highs in a few places. /Issued 256 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ The high temperature forecast for Today is highly dependent on the cloud cover.
Areas from Garden City through Dodge City and Medicine Lodge are currently breaking out of the overcast so we should see a spike in temperatures into the low-mid 60s in those areas before we lose daytime heating. Upper level wind flow continues out of the southwest over the central Plains through the next few days as an upper level low rolls south just off the California coast. Later tonight and Monday, a warm front over the western High Plains will move northeast across western Kansas. Monday should be warmer as southwesterly winds overspread nearly all of southwest and south central Kansas. Highs should be into the lower 80s in most areas save for far south central Kansas.
1136 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over southeast SK, with frontal boundary stretching from western ND to far northwest SD and southern MT. Upper level analysis shows zonal flow over the region, with low pressure continuing to slowly sink south along the west coast.
A diffuse stratus deck is still in place elsewhere keeping temperatures in the low to middle 50s. Stratus is expected to thicken and increase in coverage again later tonight as moderate moisture transport continues to keep the lower levels saturated. High pressure encompassing much of the eastern conus continues to shunt off mid and upper level moisture.
As we go into tonight and especially tomorrow though, the front will begin lifting north as a warm front and winds will transition to a more southerly flow. Heights will be on the rise again as the subtropical ridge builds back over the region. Highs on Monday will be a couple degrees warmer than today with most of the area reaching into the 80s.
Tonight, high pressure will remain over the area. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper ridge will remain over the area on Monday.
Said southerly flow was bringing in some warmer air, as afternoon temperatures across the area were in the 40s and 50s. Best chances will be across the southern half of the area, closer to the nose of the low level moisture transport.
246 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 (Tonight and Monday) Much warmer day across West Central Texas compared to 24 hours ago. Seeing some erosion in the low level cloud deck on visible satellite and this has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 60s in some spots. (Monday night through Sunday) Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the area this week, in advance of a large upper low dropping south along the California coast.
237 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Finally some breaks in the low clouds and some sunshine this afternoon.