Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some highs may struggle to get out of the 60s in parts of the far east and NE mtns today then perhaps even cooler in the far NE for Saturday.
For the rest of the forecast period, we can expect a stable environment as high pressure builds in from the north and a broad drier airmass moves over the Florida Peninsula. In terms of temperature, we will have cooler days, with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s.
The highest rainfall totals are still expected to be near and south of the Mason-Dixon Line, with 1-2" totals possible. In addition to rain, winds will pick up on Saturday with gusts between 20mph-30mph across lower elevations and 40+mph along the ridges possible. For now have mentioned in the HWO, but a wind advisory may be needed for the higher elevations.
High pressure remains centered over Texas this morning, with a gradual southeast push expected as a deepening low moves across the western states. Another day with limited moisture across the region with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau with expansion to the east over Black Mesa and towards Four Corners later in the day as the low to the north starts to push to the south a bit. The low sags slightly southward but remains centered well to our north through the weekend.
535 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 The upper level low spinning over central ID this morning will drop into southeast ID/southwestern WY by this evening, and remain there overnight. This should start to shift into northwest CO this morning, as the upper low makes its way south, along with its associated jet max. In addition, a weak cold front will push into the Denver area late this morning, in the 10 am to noon time frame. Although it will remain warm today, temperatures should be about 3-5 degrees cooler over yesterday. By Saturday at 12Z, models have the upper closed low centered over southwestern Wyoming.
A slow moving upper low will produce periods of rain and seasonally cool temperatures today and Saturday.
400 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 A slow moving upper low will produce periods of rain and seasonally cool temperatures today and Saturday.
452 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Water vapor shows large upper low over ID, with short wave that brought some afternoon/evening convection to the area slowly dissipating over western SD.
Central Alabama will continue to be on the dry and cooler side of Tropical Cyclone Ian. A tight pressure gradient between Ian and a low level ridge near the Mississippi River will produce north winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts today and again Saturday.
747 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A fairly steady weather pattern for the short term as weak upper- ridging continues over the region. The ridge axis is situated over Texas, keeping our temperatures around 5 degree above normal today and Saturday in the upper 80s. In terms of precipitation, the only real chance for the CWA will be a rouge shower or two as a upper low over Sonora advects moisture up into New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures today will remain on the cooler side, but will return back to near normal values Saturday onward. Aloft an upper ridge over the central CONUS will remain trapped between a western CONUS upper closed low and the remnants of Hurricane Ian after it makes it's second landfall into the Carolinas today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, though still below our late September normals. We will remain under the influence of high pressure this weekend and into the start of the new week.
Temperatures will trend cooler through Saturday, though still remain near or slightly above normal for late September.
338 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 The upper level low spinning over central ID this morning will drop into southeast ID/southwestern WY by this evening, and remain there overnight. This should start to shift into northwest CO this morning, as the upper low makes its way south, along with its associated jet max. In addition, a weak cold front will push into the Denver area late this morning, in the 10 am to noon time frame. Although it will remain warm today, temperatures should be about 3-5 degrees cooler over yesterday. By Saturday at 12Z, models have the upper closed low centered over southwestern Wyoming.
849 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows a stacked upper level low centered near the SW MT/ID border with a plume of deeper moisture streaming north from WY into central/eastern MT. 12z upper air obs show 3\4" or more precipitable water values beneath the moist plume at GJT, RIW and TFX, which is well above seasonal and supports the development of significant/widespread precipitation across the area over the next 24 hrs as the moist plume pivots to the NW around the upper low. Hoenisch A slow moving upper low will produce periods of rain and seasonally cool temperatures today and Saturday.
Brisk start to the morning, with lows dipping into the lower to mid 40s across the region with generally clear skies. Through the day, the H500 ridge is expected to strengthen across the Plains, especially with Ian pulling westward, making landfall on the South Carolina coast by mid to late afternoon. The synoptic pattern looks like one large blocking pattern by the end of the day, with a strengthening trough over northern Rockies and Ian continuing to churn toward the southern Appalachian Mountains.
627 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Today and tonight) As northern Rockies upper low progresses southward, increasing flow across central Rockies will result in lee trough intensification this morning and afternoon. This will tighten the lower level pressure gradient and result in moderate south winds across western Oklahoma.
417 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 We are now transitioning into the cooler pattern as that big bowling ball, otherwise known as a cut off upper level low, will meander around the area into the weekend. The difference today will be that the bulk of the showers will shift to East of the Divide, especially across the north and far south where the spokes of energy rotating around the upper level low will be located. With the cooler air in place, thunderstorms may be a bit less numerous. This is actually a bit warmer than yesterday though. Saturday looks like a similar day as the low spins near the Cowboy State.
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Benign weather is expected today as the CWA remains beneath weak mid/upper-level ridging centered over the central CONUS. The closed low will remain displaced far enough north to prevent a smaller, weaker cyclone over northern Sonora from transitioning into an open trough. The net result from the presence of these systems to the west of the CWA will be high-level cirrus deck streaming over the CWA today which will offset diabatic heating effects, with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Overnight, the presence of the cirrus deck should limit the outgoing longwave radiation with temperatures bottoming out in the middle-upper 50s across most of the CWA with the exception being the northwestern zones where temperatures in the lower 50s are expected.
634 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Clear to partly cloudy skies will abound through the weekend as high pressure remains over the area. The trajectory of the air in the lower levels will help bring warmer air in from the east so temperatures should be a few to several degrees warmer this upcoming night.
Afternoon high temps will once again be in the low 70s, but can't rule out our south-central KY counties warming into the mid 70s today. Rain chances associated with Ian will begin to filter into the I-75 corridor during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning, though ridging to our west will limit Ian from a westward push. A well defined precipitation shield on the northern/western quadrants of the remnants of Ian will likely impact eastern Kentucky, but largely miss central Kentucky and southern Indiana due to stout upper level ridging to the west 'blocking' Ian from making any westward movement.
Anderson (Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022) Today through Saturday: Cool and dry weather continues, with southern Wisconsin on the southwestern periphery of high pressure centered over southern Ontario and Quebec. Little change is expected to the overall pattern, as the upper levels take on an omega block, with upper level ridging over the Great Lakes and Midwest sandwiched between an upper level trough over the Great Basin and the trough associated with Ian over the Carolinas.
Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon for areas along and west of a line from Gothenburg to Oxford to Phillipsburg, where relative humidity values will fall into the low to mid-20s. High temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side of guidance as warm, southeasterly winds usher in warmer air. A closed upper low, located over southwestern Wyoming and northern Utah will lift to the north-northwest through the day Saturday, centered slightly west of the Bighorn Mountains of Montana. Warm and dry conditions are expected as southwest flow aloft sets up over the Central Plains and a ridge just to our east. Wind gusts may reach into the low 20s with relative humidity values falling into the low to mid-20 percent range.
An upper low centered along the Continental Divide between Idaho and Montana will shift to the south throughout the day and move over SE Idaho by later this evening. This low will bring clouds, showers/storms and noticeably cooler temperatures to region today. Temperatures will only top out in the 50s and 60s today and tomorrow so certainly much cooler than earlier this week. Could even see a few rumbles of thunder across the high country as well today. The low will move slowly over the next few days and looks to rotate north on Saturday closer towards Yellowstone. This will lead to another day of showery conditions, mainly across the northeastern portion of the forecast area, while also keeping things cooler for the rest of eastern Idaho.
1246 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Today and tonight) As northern Rockies upper low progresses southward, increasing flow across central Rockies will result in lee trough intensification this morning and afternoon. This will tighten the lower level pressure gradient and result in moderate south winds across western Oklahoma.
A closed low pressure system will continue to spin over central Montana, and pump moisture westward into western Montana for the next several hours. Light rain will continue through Saturday morning, and will slowly begin to shift east into southwest Montana as the day progresses, as the low moves further east.
1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Ian continues to track northward into the Carolinas and farther away from the region, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken between the hurricane and high pressure to our north/west.
A weak trough passing through the region this weekend will help temperatures cool closer to seasonal normals. Cannot discount an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the higher terrain of Mohave County today as a system pushes into Utah to our north. Northwest flow will set up over the region as an upper level low drops into Utah.
911 AM PDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Morning rain showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle today as low pressure slowly pulls away. Expectation is the area of low pressure centered near the Idaho Montana Border will make slow progress eastward and any showers and cloud cover associated with its west edge will be too far to influence the Cascade, Wenatchee area, Okanogan Valley, and western portions of the Columbia Basin today.
With onset of rain, wind will begin gusting in the higher elevations and a wi. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to be near and south of Morgantown, with 1-2" totals possible. Outside of the WV ridges, winds could gust 20-25 mph with seasonable temperature.
Meanwhile closer to home, northerly flow on the west side of Ian is maintaining a cool, dry airmass across the area with ridging centered over the Midwest region.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes weaken over the upcoming day, with another high pressure center approaching the same area via Canada. Temperatures will warm only slightly for Saturday, with morning lows in the lower to mid 40s, and highs in the lower to mid 70s.
1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning continues to show the TN Valley sandwiched between a ridge of high pressure to the north and Hurricane Ian to the east.
Another day of moderate warming on this Friday with high pressure building.
1145 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Satellite imagery this morning shows a stacked upper level low centered near the SW MT/ID border with a plume of deeper moisture streaming north from WY into central/eastern MT. 12z upper air obs show 3\4" or more precipitable water values beneath the moist plume at GJT, RIW and TFX, which is well above seasonal and supports the development of significant/widespread precipitation across the area over the next 24 hrs as the moist plume pivots to the NW around the upper low. Hoenisch A slow moving upper low will produce periods of rain and seasonally cool temperatures today and Saturday.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a ridge extending from this high pressure through central IL into the deep South will dominate the weather today. Highs should peak in the lower 70s. Aloft an upper ridge over the central CONUS will remain trapped between a western CONUS upper closed low and the remnants of Hurricane Ian after it makes it's second landfall into the Carolinas today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, though still below our late September normals. We will remain under the influence of high pressure this weekend and into the start of the new week.
1151 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Water vapor shows large upper low over ID, with short wave that brought some afternoon/evening convection to the area slowly dissipating over western SD.
Clouds will thicken tonight, however expansive high pressure to our north will maintain dry weather through tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s. Tonight will not be as cold as last night, with lows generally in the low to mid 40s. This is due to the pressure gradient between strong high pressure near James Bay and the remnants of Ian across the mid- Atlantic states.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fairly zonal flow evident aloft this afternoon across the Great Lakes while upper-level low pressure drops in to the Intermountain West. Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the near-term forecast period as ~1028mb high pressure remains situated atop the Great Lakes region.
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast Arizona through Saturday with the highest chances to the south of Tucson.
1222 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Benign weather is expected today as the CWA remains beneath weak mid/upper-level ridging centered over the central CONUS. The closed low will remain displaced far enough north to prevent a smaller, weaker cyclone over northern Sonora from transitioning into an open trough. The net result from the presence of these systems to the west of the CWA will be high-level cirrus deck streaming over the CWA today which will offset diabatic heating effects, with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Overnight, the presence of the cirrus deck should limit the outgoing longwave radiation with temperatures bottoming out in the middle-upper 50s across most of the CWA with the exception being the northwestern zones where temperatures in the lower 50s are expected.
An upper level low digging southward over the Rockies will allow for breezy northerly winds to flow into the area through this afternoon. As this trough continues to shift to our east later today and over the next few days, ridging will build back into the region. Temperatures this afternoon are already running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
tonight through Saturday night The Great Basin will play host to a squeeze play between and upper level ridge along the west coast and a pair of nearly cutoff troughs of low pressure, one over Wyoming and Montana, and the other well offshore over the NE Pacific. These three features will create a quasi-omega blocking pattern setting up with troughs flanking each side of the ridge, although these features will drift slowly eastward. Winds will dissipate overnight which will allow morning lows to drop near freezing tonight and Saturday night, so you may need to cover any cold sensitive outdoor plants.
A ridge is currently sitting off the Pacific Coast as a trough is digging into the Great Basin area.
110 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Clear to partly cloudy skies will abound through the weekend as high pressure remains over the area. The trajectory of the air in the lower levels will help bring warmer air in from the east so temperatures should be a few to several degrees warmer this upcoming night.
As high pressure from northern Ontario drops over the area tonight, expect mostly clear skies to continue until late, when a dry cold front over eastern Ontario brings a little bit of cloud cover over the northern areas of the CWA. Temps today have so far been a little bit warmer than what was previously forecasted, likely due to the lack of cloud cover overhead, allowing for greater amounts of sunshine to reach (and thus warm) the sfc. Tonight, mostly clear skies should allow for temps to plummet to or just below 40F in the interior areas; some slightly warmer temps are expected over the Keweenaw where cloud cover is expected to move over late.
It will remain dry with temperatures in the low 80s for today. Tonight, the low will be in the mid to upper 50s. It will be a little warmer tomorrow with Highs in the mid 80s.
1213 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 We are now transitioning into the cooler pattern as that big bowling ball, otherwise known as a cut off upper level low, will meander around the area into the weekend. The difference today will be that the bulk of the showers will shift to East of the Divide, especially across the north and far south where the spokes of energy rotating around the upper level low will be located. With the cooler air in place, thunderstorms may be a bit less numerous. This is actually a bit warmer than yesterday though. Saturday looks like a similar day as the low spins near the Cowboy State.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level low will continue to churn around Jackson, Wyoming through Saturday afternoon. An upper low over northern Sonora will also remain nearly stationary through Saturday afternoon but will have little to no effect on our weather locally.
120 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Little in the way of sensible weather is expected today as ~1028mb high pressure remains situated atop the region. Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered across the Great Lake region early this morning. Forecast period begins with the remnants of Hurricane Ian over North Carolina with high pressure centered over western Ontario and ridging through the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will provide mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and rain-free weather. As the remnants of Ian pushes northward against the strengthening high pressure over Ontario, the pressure gradient over northern Michigan tightens.
Upper level ridging remains in firm control as well over the central conus.
248 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 A slow moving upper low will produce periods of rain and seasonally cool temperatures through Saturday.
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows ridging over the central CONUS wedged between Hurricane Ian on the east coast and low pressure over Idaho, with a large swath of drier air wrapping around the backside of Ian and extending west into LA and TX. At the surface, an elongated ridge of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes region southwestward toward the NW Gulf coast. The combination of dry northerly flow aloft and surface ridging was producing pleasant fall weather across the region with blue skies, mild temperatures (around 80) and low relative humidities (between 25 and 35 percent). Temperatures will run a little cooler than normal, moreso during the overnight periods as the drier airmass will allow for efficient cooling.
1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A fairly steady weather pattern for the short term as weak upper- ridging continues over the region. The ridge axis is situated over Texas, keeping our temperatures around 5 degree above normal today and Saturday in the upper 80s. In terms of precipitation, the only real chance for the CWA will be a rouge shower or two as a upper low over Sonora advects moisture up into New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening.
1041 AM PDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Morning rain showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle today as low pressure slowly pulls away. Expectation is the area of low pressure centered near the Idaho Montana Border will make slow progress eastward and any showers and cloud cover associated with its west edge will be too far to influence the Cascade, Wenatchee area, Okanogan Valley, and western portions of the Columbia Basin today.
(Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure will dominate the short term period. This will lead to Saturday's morning low temperatures cooler than this morning across central and eastern areas.
202 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Closed upper low over the northern Rockies will slowly migrate east the next few days, supporting increasing chances for rain and cooler temps. Sfc cool front continues to slowly shift east across the high plains with mid-level monsoon moisture spreading NE. First impulse rotating along the east side of the upper trough will shift east and allow for increasing moisture and lift aloft, supporting increasing chances for showers and a few storms this evening.
The remnants of Ian will remain well to our east, while weak mid level ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains.
143 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Aviation IR loop shows clear skies across the Lower Peninsula. High pressure is centered over northern Lower early this morning and will provide plenty of sunshine today. The next several days will be dry as high pressure over southern Canada maintains it's grip on the region.
1126 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Now through Saturday) The fine weather continues for the last day of September and the first day of October as South Texas remains under a dry 500mb ridge.
Sprawling high pressure to our north will get a bit of a reinforcement through tomorrow and tomorrow night which will result in the development of breezier northeasterly winds. This will cut into the high temperature potential near the lake with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s with low 70s more prevalent inland and south of I-80. Did knock dewpoints down a bit with indications of fairly strong mixing tomorrow afternoon which should support afternon RH values dipping into the low 30s south of the Kankakee River Valley.
This is due to the lingering influence of Hurricane Ian to the east and upper level ridging to our west. As Ian continues eastward, the ridging will build in from the west across Texas, maintaining radiational cooling for minimum temperatures (in the lower 50s tonight and tomorrow night) and boosting a gradual warm-up in maximum temperatures (in the lower 80s).
839 AM MST Fri Sep 30 2022 Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Arizona through Saturday with the highest chances south and west of Tucson.