Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing over the eastern U. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced northwesterly flow over the central U. Tonight - Tuesday: This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning. A more westerly boundary layer will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the southwestern third of the CWA.
405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN CO TODAY THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY LATE MORNING WITH SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 INTO SOUTH PARK. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE FCST TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
A COLD FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW NEAR NEWPORT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING. BIT WARMER ON TUE. BUT WILL SEE MUCH WARMER WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG AND STUBBORN ANTICYCLONES THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WHERE PW WILL BE A TAD HIGHER AND SUBSIDENCE A TAD WEAKER THAN ELSEWHERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE PERIOD STARTS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U. AND THE UPPER LOW OVER W TX WILL USHER TS BILL RIGHT UP INTO SE TX. BILL IS FCST TO MOVE UP AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN REINFORCING ITSELF OVER NM AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
412 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBS/RADAR MOSAIC SHOW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING A NICE WEATHER DAY WITH NOTABLE THETA-E TROUGH PUSHING INTO OUR AREA AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RESURGENT SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL SEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN EXACTLY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM.
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
447 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
320 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015 08Z water vapor shows tropical storm Bill moving north between an upper level ridge over north FL and another upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
850MB JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ANALYSIS SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING OVER AREAS WHERE MUCH ACCUMULATION WAS OBSERVED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST.
325 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NO DISCERNIBLE REASON WHY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZES AND APPARENT WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER CTRL/SRN GA.
136 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 STRONG UPPER RIDGE (594DM) WAS CENTERED NEAR CHS WITH 590DM HEIGHTS SURROUNDING THE ENTIRE SERN U. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT VERY ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION THRU WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE ATMO COLUMN MOISTENS FURTHER AND HEIGHTS DECLINE JUST A BIT.
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
445 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBS/RADAR MOSAIC SHOW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING A NICE WEATHER DAY WITH NOTABLE THETA-E TROUGH PUSHING INTO OUR AREA AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RESURGENT SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL SEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN EXACTLY. AT LEAST UPR/MID LVL MSTR INFLUX VIA TROPICAL REMNANTS LIFTG NWD ANTICIPATED BTWN PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES ROOTED ACRS GA AND WEST OF BAJA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
248 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE REMNANTS OF "BILL" IS EXPECTED TO GET DRAWN UP THROUGH THIS WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
148 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
DUE TO THE HIGH RAIN RATES IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AND THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THE CFW IS SET TO EXPIRE AFTER THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN ADV THROUGH THE NEXT SET OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT. BEHIND BILL THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST DECREASING POPS TO MORE CLIMO LIKE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND CLEARING SKIES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY. CHARACTERIZED BY A FLATTENING RIDGE.
253 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OVER THE SE QUAD OF THE CONUS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON THE WEST PERIPHERY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION. WITH THE RIDGE PERSISTENT.
343 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S.
106 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE REGION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO A CONCISE WEST/EAST BAND. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RULE WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. INCREASED CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN OUR WARM SECTOR AS UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE UPPER FLOW MAY TURN MORE WEST NORTHWEST AND BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND WET WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND FALLING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN BUT WILL FLATTEN A BIT.
302 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC.
522 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERING THE ABOVE OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASINGLY BE CONTROLLED BY A SPRAWLING RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MANY TUNED TO OUR REGIONAL WEATHER IN THE SUMMER SHOULD RECALL EXPANSIVE RIDGES IN THE VICINITY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND THIS IS THE WAY OUR WEATHER WILL BE TRENDING. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MS (CLOSEST TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER).
639 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND REMAINING MVFR STRATUS IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 10KFT LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ISSUED 605 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 REMAINING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLR SKIES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
530 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OVER THE SE QUAD OF THE CONUS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON THE WEST PERIPHERY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION. WITH THE RIDGE PERSISTENT.
AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY.
AS A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO OUR WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS.
WEAK NEAR- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
For today, models are consistently showing storms forming late in the day over the higher terrain of the MT/ID border from SW Montana/Lemhi County all the way to the Canadian border.
615 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBS/RADAR MOSAIC SHOW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING A NICE WEATHER DAY WITH NOTABLE THETA-E TROUGH PUSHING INTO OUR AREA AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RESURGENT SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL SEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN EXACTLY. AT LEAST UPR/MID LVL MSTR INFLUX VIA TROPICAL REMNANTS LIFTG NWD ANTICIPATED BTWN PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES ROOTED ACRS GA AND WEST OF BAJA.
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (593 DM) COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED AROUND TROPICAL STORM BILL AND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE SERN CONUS. TODAY THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE FROM TS BILL WILL FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT AND AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SO STILL HAVE AFTERNOON TSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.
OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER WYOMING AND UTAH. THE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS WYOMING BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK ASCENT FROM THE TROF. THE UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WYOMING ALONG WITH MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH TONIGHT. ENTERING A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CYCLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. ITS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THESE STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGES/HEAT DOMES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE GADSDEN REMAINS AT 31 AS OF 11AM. THAT RIDGE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN. MODERATING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT.
1205 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
329 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BRINGING THICKER CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR BRIEFLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING WESTERLY BY MID-DAY. EXPECT THIS COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER TO RETREAT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THANKS TO RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS NE FL. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SE GA COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INLAND.
MAINLY TO LOWER TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT FOG PATCHY OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. VERY FRIGID CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES AT ALAMOSA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 20 BELOW ZERO WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
247 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
The 12z nam and recent rap runs suggest the highest qpf, which would translate to an inch or two of snow along the Interstate 64 corridor. The surface cold front associated with this system will sweep southeast across our region on Tuesday morning.
252 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A MOISTURE LIMITED REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
1100 AM MST MON JAN 11 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER UINTA BASIN AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND EAST ALONG THE NORHTERN GULF COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE COOLER WEATHER IS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING.
321 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH W TX AND S ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING AT THE SURFACE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED RIGHT ATOP THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL DOWN IN THE 20S IN MOST SPOTS. FURTHER SOUTH THE EXPECTATION OF THINNER CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WHILE SOME SPOTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO A RANGE OF THE LOW TO MID 40S. BUT STILL SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL SEEP DOWN INTO THE REGION. BUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING NEARLY ALL SPOTS TO ONCE AGAIN GET BELOW FREEZING.
FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING FORMS UP. SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRANSITION TO A WETTER PERIOD AS SFC COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS. H5 TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC COASTAL TROUGHING JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL EASES A BIT LATER TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH STRETCHES AND DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL AGAIN ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SO WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR NOW.
450 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND BRING ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING.
COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT RAIN. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RAIN CHCS INCREASE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A COASTAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE E U. MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THEN A SHIFT TO WARMER CONDITIONS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND IS REPRESENTED BY A WELL DEFINED THERMAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST WAS WARMED TO THE HIGHER END OF THE GUID ENVELOP. I WILL ADD THAT I'M MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT WED AS IT THINK CONDITIONS COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. THE LATEST GUID HAS TRENDED A GOOD BIT WARMER AND THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT.
230 PM MST MON JAN 11 2016 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TURN WESTERLY TO SWLY WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST TONGIHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
1236 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER ALOFT A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX COASTLINE FROM THE DESERT SW STATES. WITH THE LOWER POPS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. THIS MODEL IS COMING IN A BIT WARMER IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS.
17Z TEMPS APPROACHING FCST MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MTNS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHARP COLD FRONT TUES PM. AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT. AS DEEP UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU THE NE CONUS. A DEPARTING TROUGH HAS TAKEN THE SNOW BANDS OVER THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH IT. VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA BUT WITH A WEAKENING SYSTEM TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN PUSHED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
17Z TEMPS APPROACHING FCST MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MTNS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHARP COLD FRONT TUES PM. AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT. AS DEEP UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU THE NE CONUS. TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TAKEN SNOW BANDS OVER THE NW MTNS ALONG WITH IT. VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. SHARP COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME STRONG FROM THE WEST.
104 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
-DZ/-RA MIX IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL SITES AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
250 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 A limited fire danger has developed this afternoon with the warmer conditions, coupled with dry air-mass/gusty southwest winds. A dry cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR early Tuesday morning, pushing south of the Red River by late afternoon/early evening.
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. AVERAGING AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
250 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION HEADING TOWARDS QUEBEC AND ONTARIO OR THE EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR ADVECTION TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY BY ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES.