Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Recent satellite imagery showed a tendency for the low clouds to build back westward toward the Mississippi River. As a result, the low cloud and fog forecast will be quite the challenge through daybreak. An upper level ridge is progged to build east from the Plains today, then amplify over the eastern U.
The main upper low has exited stage right and high pressure will be abundant over the next 36 hours. Otherwise plenty of sun and warmer temperatures. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s.
Louisville is expected to remain a little warmer near 60. The upper level pattern over the CONUS will start off with a ridge east, trough west pattern.
Early this morning, the synoptic pattern featured closed lows over the Ohio Valley and off the coast of British Columbia, with generally southwest flow over the Northern Plains. The closed low and associated troughing out west are expected to deepen over the western CONUS today, leading to more pronounced southwest flow over the region. Ensemble guidance has been consistent on upper troughing persisting over the western CONUS for the end of the holiday weekend, with more waves moving through and bringing continued chances for precipitation.
Beginning Sunday morning and persisting into Memorial Day , we'll see an expansive upper level trough positioned across the western CONUS with several embedded s/w's of energy traversing through the active southwest flow aloft set up across our CWA.
1243 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (This evening through Saturday evening) A return to early summertime, above-average temperatures is forecast for tomorrow as the low-level thermal ridge expands eastward into the Southern Plains.
No large changes in the overall (persistent) large scale pattern which will continue to be dominated by a western CONUS trough and southwest flow over the plains states through mid week. There are a lot of variables and unknowns at this point and general trends have been for a slight eastward shift in the low level features.
As the upper level ridge moves east and a broad trough moves into the western United States, southwesterly flow aloft develops over Nebraska. The upper level low and associated trough becomes centered over northern Utah bu Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will move through western Nebraska during the day as a low develops over northeastern Colorado and another develops over South Dakota.
(This evening through Saturday) The main feature affecting our weather through tomorrow afternoon is a 500mb ridge moving out of northern Mexico and into central Texas. This should result in a mild night ahead, with lows in the low to mid 70s. For tomorrow, the upper-level ridge axis will become centered right over south central Texas.
/issued 942 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ As of 9:15 PM CDT, one more enjoyable night of cooler than normal temperatures are on the way to the Ark-La-Tex as winds have waned to light and variable speeds, allowing radiational cooling to kick in.
147 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 A cold front moves across the area overnight. High pressure settles into the region this weekend with dry weather returning. Although high res data suggests convection slowly moves ese overnight ahead/along the cold front, expect this to be sub-severe. The low pressure system will be north of the area and moving across NY and New England on Saturday. The upper low pivots E across the area in the morning and pushes off to the NE by aftn. The low levels dry out (dew pts falling into the 50s) so even w/ the cold pool aloft, chances for showers are minimal, though some SCT aftn clouds are likely. Mostly clear/sunny Sat night/Sunday as high pressure settles over the region and slides offshore Sun aftn.
A weak cold front was edging toward the coast this morning, with expanding low stratus ahead of the boundary, and SSW breezes in saturated low layers. Lingering low level moisture, damp ground in spots, light wind and partial clearing will allow fog to develop early into Sunday with min-T in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s by the coast.
This will be in response to a cold front moving across the area. After 12z there will be a continued increase in areal coverage of the showers as a cold front moves into northern New York. The eastward progression of the front is being driven by an upper trough moving across Quebec. There will be some instability over parts of southern and eastern Vermont, but surface convergence will already be east of the area as the cold front will have moved into New Hampshire. Drier air moves in for tonight and Sunday as flow aloft becomes west to northwest and high pressure builds in. The large upper level ridge over the Great Lakes will bring northwest flow and increased clouds overnight.
1125 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 A upper level ridge axis extended north-south across the north and central High Plains early this afternoon. Saturday, moderate southwest flow aloft downstream from a Pacific upper level trough over the Northwest CONUS will maintain stronger winds especially west of I-25 with gusts between 40 and 50 mph. High temperatures Saturday will be 5-10 degrees cooler, with 70s and 80s. A cooler and more unsettled weather pattern arrives Sunday. The slow moving upper level trough over western CONUS will continue to advect plentiful moisture into the region.
No rain is expected as upper level ridging passes overhead keeping the airmass subsident while PWs are below late May averages. Lower level thermal ridge maintains well above normal temperatures.
High pressure will result in dry weather today through the weekend with ridging bringing warmer temperatures. Discussion: Upper trough axis shifts eastward today with current ridging across the Southern Plains shifting eastward and amplifying as troughing digs in across the Rockies.
1211 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The main feature affecting our weather through tomorrow afternoon is a 500mb ridge moving out of northern Mexico and into central Texas. This should result in a mild night ahead, with lows in the low to mid 70s. For tomorrow, the upper-level ridge axis will become centered right over south central Texas.
The surface to mid-level ridge that was once sitting off of the Carolina coast has long since retreated into the central Atlantic. Nighttime Microphysics depicts mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with the highest concentration across the Straits of Florida, and temperatures across the island chain still sit near 80 degrees. The aforementioned ridge over the central Atlantic will build back to the east in the next 24 to 36 hours, which will shift our winds back to the east to southeast and result in an increasing period of gentle to moderate breezes.
Leading short wave with trough approaching the West Coast has brought a few sprinkles and light showers to NorCal overnight. Main upper low will swing through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with trough extending south over NorCal. This will continue the cooler conditions and breezy onshore winds. Instability appears to be on the low side at this time, so not expecting widespread thunderstorm activity, but possibly some isolated small hail.
Weak low pressure is located along that front across northeast WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis to the east of the region, with southwesterly flow extending from the west coast into the high Plains. Low pressure is located off the southern British Columbia coast. The unsettled pattern has started and will persist through the holiday weekend as upper trough and low pressure off the west coast pushes east across the western US.
High pressure continues to shift east of the area with showers approaching from the west.
/DL/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: high pressure and a dry airmass will persist over the forecast area as we go through the weekend. Temperatures will rebound today into the lower to middle 80s under sunny skies, and mostly clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to cool off quickly this evening.
Expect some mid/high clouds will be pushing in from the west later this morning but this will not deter temperatures from once again reaching the low/mid 90s south of highway 2 with upper 80s/around 90 to the north. After a quiet morning, Sunday is shaping up to be quite active as strong diffluence from a vigorous upper level jet moves across Nebraska accompanied by a good surge of short wave energy rotating around the upper trof that continues to dig into the western US. The hail threat will increase as storms move into the greater instability across central and eastern Nebraska, and probabilistic updraft helicity guidance indicates the tornadic threat will become manifest more toward Sunday evening as storms move northeastward past highway 83 and interact with greater instability and better shear profiles as the low level jet starts to ramp up.
1055 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 A trough of low pressure slowly moving across the area will result in some showers the rest of the morning east of the Genesee valley into the North Country. High pressure will ridge into the region and bring a return to fair weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
600 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (Today) The upper level closed low continues to slowly exit to the northeast. Water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate that the low is centered near Lake Erie. Upper level heights will be on the rise across the area as the upper level low exits to the northeast and ridging builds in from the southwest.
/issued 423 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
437 AM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Clouds will increase and thicken from west to east today ahead of the incoming trough. Mid level moisture will continue to increase as the trough nears overnight tonight. This should bring a dusting of snow to the higher mountains above 10,000 feet, and will push a cold front through eastern Colorado this evening. An unsettled pattern will be in place from Sunday through much of the week as a deep trough axis sits over the western US. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the high country first as a result of orographic lift, combined with weak PVA/QG ascent, then spread into the plains through the afternoon.
530 AM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion A trend toward cooler and wetter conditions is expected through the holiday weekend with showers today and a few thunderstorms possible across southwest Montana.
Given the deep mixing up to almost 16,000 ft AGL to the west of the dry line, humidity values were dropped below what the blended model guidance shows and closer to what the low level relative humidity values directly from the NAM indicate. 5 degrees per 1000 ft, this would correspond to a temperature of about 104 degrees along and just west of the dry line from Meade and Liberal north to Cimarron, with slightly cooler air on the higher terrain of far western Kansas and lower readings in the moist air over central Kansas.
Overall, this made negligible changes and left the high temperature untouched. High pressure will result in dry weather today through the weekend with ridging bringing warmer temperatures. Discussion: Upper trough axis shifts eastward today with current ridging across the Southern Plains shifting eastward and amplifying as troughing digs in across the Rockies.
754 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Aviation -- Low chance of showers this afternoon and again tonight -- Latest GOES WV loop shows mid/upper trough departing the region to the east. Sustained low-level warm advection ahead of this low, coupled with an upper jet axis emerging from the Rockies, will contribute to pronounced mid/upper-level height rises over the eastern CONUS beginning on Sun. By 00z Tue, EPS and GEFS ensemble means both depict a closed anticyclone at 500 mb (588+ dam) centered over the OH Valley. -- Rain chances Tue night into Thu-- A surface cold front is expected to arrive during the Tue night / Wed timeframe, likely providing some focus for showers/thunderstorms, although timing/coverage details are uncertain. A ridge of high pressure will provide for light winds today.
/EC/ Today through tonight: high pressure and a dry airmass will persist over the forecast area as we go through the weekend. Temperatures will rebound today into the lower to middle 80s under sunny skies, and mostly clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to cool off quickly this evening.
The possibility of sprinkles or light rain in the North Bay Saturday afternoon and potentially into the Bay Area itself Saturday evening, as the tail end of a weak cold front passes through.
High pressure contnues to shift east of the area with another batch of showers approaching from the west.
Dry and cool conditions today as an upper ridge builds across the region. Southerly flow will keep overnight temperatures a bit warmer with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Dry conditions will continue on Sunday as upper ridging remains in place. Stronger southerly flow along with mostly clear skies will warm temperatures into the mid 80s across Central Indiana with dewpoints rising into the low 60s.
841 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Cold front moves through this morning, then high pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. Previous Discussion: Water vapor imagery shows the primary trough axis aloft over the forecast area and the associated slow moving cold front across western SC will continue to push through overnight. With some downsloping component to the low level winds and good radiational heating, temps will rise into the mid-upper 80's despite post-cold frontal flow. Some subtle moisture return is possible overnight as a weak low level easterly jet develops as some troughing builds along the east coast. But otherwise, the setup is fairly close to ideal for radiational cooling overnight and lows will fall into the low-mid 60's.
528 AM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Upper trough digging into the western states will result in cooler temperatures and unsettled weather through the holiday weekend.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
1032 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 The Memorial Day weekend will start unsettled across central PA with some showers and a few thunderstorms sparked by a trough of cooler air aloft drifting east over Pennsylvania.
Today, high pressure will retreat eastward and a warm front will lift northward today. This warm front will be nudged into the area by an 850mb jet, that will largely wane throughout the day. Highs will benefit from the WAA, and should reach the mid 70s with highs in the low 70s near the lakeshore, where winds will be southeasterly. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s with lingering mid to high lvl clouds.
502 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 A trough of low pressure will slowly move across the area resulting in some showers this morning. High pressure will ridge into the region and bring a return to fair weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
325 AM MDT Sat May 28 2022 A trend toward cooler and wetter conditions is expected through the holiday weekend with showers today and a few thunderstorms possible across southwest Montana.
620 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Cold front moves through this morning, then high pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. Water vapor imagery shows the primary trough axis aloft over the forecast area and the associated slow moving cold front across western SC will continue to push through overnight. With some downsloping component to the low level winds and good radiational heating, temps will rise into the mid-upper 80's despite post-cold frontal flow. Some subtle moisture return is possible overnight as a weak low level easterly jet develops as some troughing builds along the east coast. But otherwise, the setup is fairly close to ideal for radiational cooling overnight and lows will fall into the low-mid 60's.
Rain showers, thunderstorms, snow and cooler temperatures are expected across northern and portions of central Nevada this weekend. Today and Sunday Rain and afternoon thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow in northern Nevada as a trough of low pressure sweeps across the state. The trough will usher in much cooler air too resulting in mountain snow this weekend. The highest amounts remain found in the mountains of northern Elko county. Snowfall accumulations are probable in the highest mountains of northern Nevada as temperatures drop into Sunday morning.
Clouds and showers will gradually clear throughout the day as upper level ascent, courtesy of the cut-off low, leaves to the east. Daytime mixing and a building ridge will aid in gradually scattering cloud decks and enforcing upper level subsidence, drying out the the lower atmosphere. By tonight, a ridge axis will be directly over the area. Residual surface moisture from today's rain, calm winds under the ridge axis, and minimal low level clouds from subsidence will introduce a fog risk tonight as temperatures radiatively cool to their respective dew points. Ridging will continue to build over the eastern US in response to a digging western trough.
634 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 A trough of low pressure will slowly move across the area resulting in some showers this morning. High pressure will ridge into the region and bring a return to fair weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
A trend toward cooler and wetter conditions is expected through the holiday weekend with showers today and a few thunderstorms possible across southwest Montana.
1028 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 In the wake of a frontal passage, high pressure will build into the region for the balance of the holiday weekend, lingering across the eastern half of the U.
628 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 (Today) A band of storms advancing east across KS early this morning is associated with an advancing mid level warm front.
511 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 The Memorial Day weekend will start unsettled across central PA with some showers sparked by a trough of cooler air aloft drifting east over Pennsylvania.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will maintain its hold on the weather pattern across the TN Valley today, while upper ridging builds eastward from the Planes.
637 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 An upper ridge will keep clear skies over much of the area through the period. Today Through Sunday Night An upper ridge is over the central U. with upper low pressure over the northeast. The upper ridge will expand eastward today and will shift further east on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Highs will be in the lower 80s to near 90 today and mid 80s to lower 90s Sunday.
1033 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 A high pressure across the western Atlantic has slid further east and away from our area. Meanwhile a trough extends from the Hudson Bay to the Appalachians. Visible satellite shows what appears to be a weak cloud line developing across the Lower and Upper Keys. Given the weak flow through at least the lowest 6 km of 5 knots or less, it is not too surprising to see a line develop. Ridging across the western Atlantic will gradually build back westward across the Keys, leading to a period of gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes.
Tonight into Sunday, a low pressure system will dig into the Pacific Northwest and settle over southern Idaho. This low will cause cooler air to be pulled into the Northern Rockies with widespread precipitation, especially south of the I-90 corridor.
Sunday will be the transition day as the low level ridge begins to build in from the east with southeast to south flow across southern areas then as you move north becoming more southwest across the Nature Coast. For much of the upcoming work week a southeast to east low level flow will be in place as the ridge axis sets up to our north with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection.
(This evening through Sunday) Temperatures have climbed into the low 80s to mid 90s from east to west respectively this afternoon. Breezy south winds will continue through tomorrow ahead of a long wave trough over the western CONUS. A wind advisory may be needed along and east of I-35 eventually but should be on the low end of criteria. Afternoon highs Sunday will be 1-3 degrees warmer than today with deeper stronger downslope southwesterlies present over the High Plains of Texas.
147 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 A trend toward cooler and wetter conditions is expected through the holiday weekend with showers today and a few thunderstorms possible across southwest Montana today and tonight.
150 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Dry high pressure will continue over our region into mid week with a warming trend.
Beautiful but warm conditions expected for Sunday as high pressure remains firmly in place across the area. Abundant sunshine and the strong southerly flow will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. The trend of slightly warmer overnights will continue into Sunday night as dew points rise into the low 60s with overnight lows in the mid 60s expected.
238 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Dry high pressure will continue over our region into mid week with a warming trend.
Relatively dry conditions will continue tonight and Sunday even as a larger scale upper level trough of low pressure pushes ashore in the Pacific Northwest and dips southeast into the Great Basin, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Fairly mild temperatures are likely tonight as a prevailing south-southwest flow reinforces a warmer air mass across the region. Lows generally in the 60s(F) are expected tonight with the lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas.
Aloft we are in southwest flow as a large upper trof deepens over the western CONUS. Tomorrow will be warm again with southwest flow aloft ahead of the main trof to the west. As a sfc trof and frontal boundary sag south and stall across the area we will once again see a chance for storms.
Temps falling into the lower/middle 60s inland and near 70 degrees along the Atlantic Coast.
(Tonight) Skies have become partly cloudy over the TN Valley this afternoon, as high pressure slowly slides eastward through the region.
Last night's trough was still producing light to moderate rain showers in Idaho along and south of the Snake River this morning. The trough will exit east this afternoon but another stronger and wetter trough will come in from the north Pacific late today, and especially later tonight when it becomes a closed low over southeast Oregon.
A filling low pressure system will accompany the upper wave into OR, as an associated cold front passes through our area later this afternoon into tonight.
Temperatures should hold fairly steady through the early evening hours under cloud cover, ranging from the lower 50s near Lake Mi to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Despite the low-level convergence with these features, shras/tstms have failed to form this aftn with the exception being near Kure Beach, as the air above 700 mb is extremely dry. High pressure aloft is expected to de-amplify by mid-week and become suppressed farther south as westerlies increase to the north. Significant uncertainty exists will low pressure development off the Southeast U.
High temperatures are still projected to reach the low 80s in many areas in eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. The warm front will lift through the area, sparking convection. Uncertainty also remains in how far north into our area the warm front makes it.
Otherwise, sfc ridging has shifted E into the Mid and Lower MS Valley this morning, with a SErly low level flow having resumed over much of the region. This has resulted in a quick warmup from the cool conditions observed earlier this morning, with the 15Z temps running some 2-6+ degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago. This, combined with the strong insolation in place and upper ridging that will build E into the region from the Srn Plains this afternoon, will enable even warmer temps with readings climbing into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide.
Highs will be in the low-mid 90s with heat index values near or slightly above the air temperature.