Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Am a bit concerned the lows for Sheridan are not quite low enough with clearing expected by 6 AM CT. Tonight-Friday: Temperatures are trending a bit cooler this evening with persistent CAA into the region. High temperatures Friday could be complicated by lingering snow pack despite arctic high pressure moving east of our CWA and sunny skies prevailing. Regarding Wind Chill Advisory tonight-Friday morning: Arctic high pressure will continue to slide south over our region.
/issued 507 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ Gusty northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue through Friday evening, in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area earlier today. Lows early Friday morning will be in the upper teens across our northern counties, to the lower 20s in our southern counties. Afternoon highs are expected to range from mainly the mid 20s across the Big Country area (along/north of I-20), to near the freezing mark along the I-10 corridor.
/issued 920 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ Arctic high pressure has been building from the north this evening with temperatures across central Oklahoma in the 20s and portions of Southeast Oklahoma just falling below freezing at this hour.
A fast moving trough will bring precipitation mainly to locations northeast of Tucson through Friday.
Main upper trough was moving across the great Lakes region with a broad trough extending across the Plains. For the counties along and north of Interstate 70 fewer clouds, light winds and fresh snow cover will make for excellent radiational cooling as high pressure settles into. By Friday night into Saturday morning, the mid-level trough that has been situated over the Northern Plains will finally shift eastward into the eastern U. with a broad mid-level ridge moving into the western U. Conditions will remain dry through the weekend with a few centers of high pressure streaming over the region. This high pressure will finally shift into the southeastern U.
323 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017 Quiet and cold is the name of the game, at least in the short term as high pressure continues to settle south across our region this AM. Temps here at the office had been hovering in the lower single digits, however the mercury just dropped below zero thanks to calm winds and breaks in the overlying stratus deck. High pressure to settle directly over the area tonight, which should lead to another cold night with most areas again falling into the single digits despite a return of weak southerly winds during the period.
Behind the wave, weak surface ridging will begin to build in from the west across central NY. Also, weakening flow with the ridge should keep Erie band mainly over western NY. Heading into the day Friday, surface ridging will continue to build in resulting in some partial clearing. Cold air advecting in will result in highs struggling to make it out of the teens to low 20s across most of central NY and the low to mid 20s over NE PA.
Am a bit concerned the lows for Sheridan are not quite low enough with clearing expected by 6 AM CT. Tonight-Friday: Temperatures are trending a bit cooler this evening with persistent CAA into the region. High temperatures Friday could be complicated by lingering snow pack despite arctic high pressure moving east of our CWA and sunny skies prevailing. Regarding Wind Chill Advisory tonight-Friday morning: Arctic high pressure will continue to slide south over our region. high cloudiness moves in from the west Saturday ahead of an approaching upper level ridge of high pressure.
Secondary reenhancing of snowfall along the ridges has been occurring late this evening as the thermal gradient continues to stack up along the ridges and moisture is squeezed out with very strong cold advection into that area as well.
Another cold night expected tonight, but it will be a tad warmer with light winds, so no wind chill advisory is anticipated for Saturday morning.
219 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA). FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH, AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH INLAND OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND WARMING IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN.
The 06z analysis depicts upper troughing west of the area with weak southerly flow at the surface in place. The airmass is very moist in the low levels with lower 70s dewpoints inland and even some mid 70s dewpoints observed across the Gulf. As we head through the day, this unstable airmass will remain in place, and with mean upper troughing and a cold front west of the area, a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across the area.
238 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY, MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
404 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE QG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.
249 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING MANY AREAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PVA ACROSS WRN/SRN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE PA.
The higher chance appears to be after 06Z, and may be focused on our far western and northern counties. /issued 351 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) High pressure dominating West Central Texas tonight, will quickly give way to another upper trough for tomorrow. For tomorrow, high pressure will quickly shift east, as another upper disturbance moves into the region.
106 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SW IOWA, WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A COLD FRONT NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT SO THAT VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE LOW CLDS AND FOG/HAZE WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE AND THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND CLOSER TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOW THE LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN A RETURN OF NEAR IFR LEVELS.
Southwesterly flow aloft will increase over West TX today and tonight as this trough approaches. A warm front will lift north through the Big Country this morning, likely settling just north of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties by peak heating. The upper-level trough remains a bit far west to produce strong forcing for ascent over West TX. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected along the dryline this afternoon, with better coverage anticipated along/north of the warm front. This convection is not expected to be too widespread, but may increase in coverage overnight as the upper- level trough ejects into the Plains and the low-level jet intensifies. Johnson (Friday and Friday Night) An upper level trough over the southwest US this morning will move northeast across the Southern Plains and provide lift for thunderstorms on Friday.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. A FRONT AND ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
623 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
POORLY DEFINED UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY IN OUR CWA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN UTAH TONIGHT AND SRN COLORADO FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE COAST TO COME INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME DRYING. AN UPPER LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COME IN QUICKLY FRIDAY INCREASING POPS AGAIN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2-4 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE. WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
439 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO VIRGINIA AND COLD FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN.
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL- E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY. ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS.
WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOSING SOUTHWEST INTO THE HEART OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE PUSHING SOME ENERGY NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. THE LOWEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THU IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
651 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
The upper low over the plains will continue to weaken as it translates east.
RAW NIGHT COMING UP AS INTERESTING NR TERM TAKING SHAPE DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE DEEP CYCLONE OVR ERN NE. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING. FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL SOLIDLY IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER. WHILE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE, THE HRRR STILL INSISTS MORE WILL DEVELOP, SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN PLACE FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 400 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/ MODELS STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE SEA/GULF BREEZES. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TODAY BUT THERE IS AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. ONSHORE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS SAT WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.
204 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
439 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
441 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
Vigorous upper low over the NE/IA border, which spawned a fairly nice line of storms across here last night despite earlier convection robbing some instability, continues to influence our weather. Even in the wake of that line, broad isentropic lift as well as a theta-e ridge and energy aloft over the region is allowing new pockets of convection to develop early this morning. in the lower 50s.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS NORTHEAST. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
646 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AREA OF SHRAS WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH TERMINALS AS LIFT OVERSPREAD AREA IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHRAS PERSISTING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO AREA FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME AS BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AS OPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH AREA AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT/FORCING ALONG THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX BY FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO TX TONIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PGF INCREASING THE S-SE SURFACE WINDS. THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB CLOSED LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED WITH SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL W OF THE MS RIVER. AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID PLAINS SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRACK EWD AND THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE TOWARD THE SW. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD. AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON WED. AM NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SO RIGHT NOW WILL HANDLE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER VIS WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 2KFT STAYING NEAR KMSL WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT TO THE EAST AS OF 05Z.
This morning's IR satellite imagery shows clouds increasing from east to west as a low pressure system meanders westward. The high pressure to our north will continue to cause unsettled weather to move in from the east (which is somewhat rare) throughout the day. During the afternoon, some mountain snow showers will continue as the weak low pressure continues westward, but most valleys will stay dry. Another low pressure sliding southeast out of British Columbia will cause shower activity to increase during the morning Friday for north central Idaho.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SUNSET.
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY DAWN WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. IF THE LOW TRACKS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA.
THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THE FLORIDA KEYS SITS UNDER THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS ACROSS OUR LAND AND MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS HAVE REGISTERED GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
WE CAN START TO GET A GLIMPSE OF WHAT EXTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.
414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016 UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TREK EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER LOW WORKS TO THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. OUR NEXT WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IT APPEARS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD TYING IT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE BASICALLY A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHERE WE ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR.
04/28/2016 06Z COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/ MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR.
UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
526 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CNTL AND S FL TODAY WHILE A TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AND ALSO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED.
417 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin for the latter half of the week.
A low pressure system is expected to affect the area around Monday Tuesday. Surface analysis shows broad High pressure in place across Indiana. Have trended lows toward the warmer side of a forecast builder blend. Models suggest upper level trough, currently approaching California, will push across the local area during the day on Tuesday. Models suggest there may some clearing of the low clouds by then, ahead of cold front, so any convection may become more surface based by that time. Another upper trough may move into the area towards the tail end of the short term.
Temperatures will be fairly mild overnight tonight with lows in the lower 20s to lower 30s. Overnight lows Monday night will remain mild most areas in the lower 30s. This will be ahead of a cold front which will reach near the Nebraska and South Dakota border 12z Tuesday. An upper level low and trough swinging across northern and central Canada will advance the cold front south through Nebraska on Tuesday. This will bring colder temperatures, with highs from near 30 far northern Nebraska, to the lower 50s south of I80.
112 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure and dry air will build in tonight through early Monday behind a weak cold front. Low pressure traveling from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes will bring widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms late Monday through Tuesday.
400 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic today and tonight.
Went ahead and converted the high wind watch to a warning, although there may need to be some timing adjustments, especially concerning the end times, as winds may persist until Tuesday evening. Winds will increase overnight across ridge tops and adjacent east slopes as a potent upper level jet approaches the region from the Pacific. Slightly better moisture and cooler temps will limit potential for critical conditions in these areas.
The fog was caused by wet soils from the cooling rains yesterday with warm air from the warm front moving over these areas. So commuters should use caution and take extra time for your commute, the warm front that caused the fog should be confined to southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas through mid to late morning.
113 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure will move east across Indiana and Ohio tonight providing fair weather with seasonably cold temperatures. Shower chances will increase during the day Monday as a low pressure system approaches from the plains.
There is more light snow back in the northeast corner of Montana, but the high resolution models show this being much lighter and tracking closer to the Canadian border. Warmer esp in the southeastern half with nr 30 psbl in the far southern RRV. Impacts look to be just sub-advisory, although we will have a better idea with the 00z model runs as the upper wave should have ejected from the main Pac NW upper low.