Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures this afternoon, however, will be similar to yesterday as heights decrease under the ridge and it shifts slightly westward. An associated cold front and low should make their way into central KS near sunrise Tue.
1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Stable conditions expected overnight as upper-level ridge of high pressure prevails across the region. Lower dewpoints north of a weak surface boundary across southeast Oklahoma will allow for overnight lows to fall into the lower 70s across the Ouachitas.
Unfortunately, this moisture will only be a tease as subsidence will remain too considerable today thanks to an upper high parked over the TX Panhandle.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 69 86 68 80 / 20 0 10 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 66 84 65 81 / 30 10 20 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 66 83 64 80 / 30 0 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 79 61 79 / 60 40 40 10 50.
The vertically stacked low pressure system was centered just southwest of Laredo at 08z with a moisture rich environment to the east of this system across South Texas. The good news is that we are starting to get some much needed rain in our watershed, at least in the Nueces River! The low should finally exit the region this evening with high pressure building over the region in its wake.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis will remain along the Red River Valley and a tropical system will slowly move west across south Texas into northern Mexico during the next 24 hours.
Additionally, showers have developed across the area, circulating around the low. Forecasted highs are in the low to mid-80s for areas along and north of a warm front with areas in the south reaching the upper 80s to upper 90s. This afternoon, low pressure continues to move across the region. Moisture in the region, the low, and a frontal boundary in the area will all aide in potential thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
1045 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Current sfc analysis shows a weak warm front oriented north to south over western SD. Upper level ridge has somewhat flattened out over the northern US a weak upper level high still sits to our south over western OK/TX. Monsoon moisture wraps around the high and flows over the region, bringing mostly cloudy skies and some weakening shower activity over western SD. Conditions will dry out as a ridge builds back up to our west and brings in northwesterly flow.
104 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 High pressure will build into the area through tonight.
Currently, the forecast area remains under weakly zonal flow between an upper trough over northern Alberta and an upper ridge over the Great Basin. The upper ridging over the Great Basin will begin to build north over Montana through the day today, but another passing disturbance across the northern half of Montana this afternoon will combine with meager yet sufficient moisture and instability for isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the high terrain of central and southwest Montana. The ridge continues strengthening just to the west of the Continental Divide through the week bringing continued hot conditions to the forecast area.
Trailing to the west of the low is a cold front and to the southeast a warm front. It's along the warm front in the warm sector where we will continue to see the best chances of off and on showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Early in the morning near daybreak, moisture pooling ahead of the cold front will cause ceilings to continue lowering, possibly below 1,000 feet. Southern Indiana and areas east of Lexington will see the mid to upper 60s, while the rest of central Kentucky remains slightly warmer in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The region will be between a dissipating trough to the south, and an advancing cold front to the north Today. Clouds will begin to enter SE GA late in the day ahead of approaching cold front.
Embedded waves riding over a mid level ridge will interact with this boundary to continue to trigger scattered showers and storms tonight. Upper level analysis places broad ridging over the plains, but various short waves continue to rotate through the flow, with one noted over eastern Montana, and another over southwest/south central North Dakota. Ridging to the west amplifies some, but still a few weak disturbances will be moving through the flow. Models are trying to drop a rather aggressive system down the face of the ridge for late in the work week, but expect that to remain mainly east of our area, possibly bringing some precipitation to our eastern areas. Of course, the lowering of ceilings and visibilities, as well as erratic winds, are possible during any showers or thunderstorms.
1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (The rest of tonight) A few high clouds are rotating around the periphery of the mid level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle this evening. (Tomorrow through Sunday) Ridge of high pressure continues Monday. This puts Northwest Arkansas more on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) A bit warmer today with temps in the upper 80s to around 90 with southwest winds bringing in some additional heat and moisture to the mid state.
255 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary over the central Dakotas into central and eastern NE, with weak low pressure over south central SD area. Monsoonal moisture continues to wrap around the high from the southwest US to the northern Plains. A drier pattern will gradually develop over the next couple of days as upper high shifts slowly west toward the Four Corners region and ridge starts to build northward across the Rockies, eventually cutting off moisture and pushing most disturbances west and north of the region. As ridge builds over the Rockies during the midweek period, drier northwesterly flow aloft should limit pcpn chances through much of the week and into the weekend.
403 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 High pressure and drier air will offer decreasing clouds through the day. With upstream dewpoints in middle/upper 50s, drier air in lowest 100 mb, subsidence from James Bay to northern Upper Great Lakes anticyclone, continued erosion of cloud cover expected overnight segueing to scattered afternoon high-based scattered cumulus field.
1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) High pressure centered over the Southcentral Plains continues advecting moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Permian Basin. If any do form the best rain chances will be in the higher elevations of the Big Bend. The highest rain chances again will be in the southern CWA, especially south of Highway 90 beginning Monday before increasing Monday night.
1126 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Lower VFR cigs in the 5-7kft layer will persist within east to northeast flow around high pressure to the north. The trend on Monday will be for less cloudiness as drier air edges into the area on north to northeast flow from the high pressure.
High pressure over the region will bring mostly dry condtions for much of northern Nevada today.
Otherwise, the upper ridge is flattening and sending the bulk of the monsoonal moisture to the east/southeast of our CWA.
Expect clearing skies and hot temperatures again for the remainder of the day and Tuesday as high pressure slides across the region.
325 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Upper level ridge was centered over the southern Plains with a swath of monsoonal moisture rotating clockwise from the Desert Southwest into the northern and central Plains. A cool front extended from low pressure in western ND through south central MT and central ID. The highest PoPs will be along and south of the I-80 corridor from Arlington to Cheyenne WY. It will be cooler with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, which is near normal for mid-August. While there is a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, the chances remain very low and likely relegated to the higher terrain and surrounding plains.
850 mb temperatures will be running in the lower to mid teens C for today and tomorrow, and with the clouds and showers, today will be a cool day with highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday will not be much warmer - in the lower to mid 70s.
Much cooler Tuesday through the end of the week. Forecast Thoughts: An upper-level low continues to ride the northern edge of the upper-level ridge across Nebraska. This will continue to flatten and shunt the upper-level ridge southward. As the low-level jet increases overnight, precipitation should become more widespread, but again, the most likely location is far northeast Kansas into Missouri. Temperatures will be much cooler for the week, with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Broader amplification in the upper-level flow remains in association with a longwave trough axis that is expected to negatively tilt over the NE CONUS over the next couple days. In response, the subtropical ridge has retreated eastward and is currently having an overall weaker influence on weather across the area. It also means overnight lows are likely to be warmer and it may be hotter in the afternoon as well in locations that experience earlier storms; but that is also dependent on cloud cover.
414 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary over the central Dakotas into central and eastern NE, with weak low pressure over south central SD area. Monsoonal moisture continues to wrap around the high from the southwest US to the northern Plains. A drier pattern will gradually develop over the next couple of days as upper high shifts slowly west toward the Four Corners region and ridge starts to build northward across the Rockies, eventually cutting off moisture and pushing most disturbances west and north of the region. As ridge builds over the Rockies during the midweek period, drier northwesterly flow aloft should limit pcpn chances through much of the week and into the weekend.
Monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances increase heading into and over the weekend as an area of low pressure originating from the Gulf of Mexico moves to the Desert Southwest sporting tropical influences and potentially enhancing the flash flooding threat across parts of the area. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer today with humidity levels down slightly.
619 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 High pressure and drier air will offer decreasing clouds through the day. With upstream dewpoints in middle/upper 50s, drier air in lowest 100 mb, subsidence from James Bay to northern Upper Great Lakes anticyclone, continued erosion of cloud cover expected overnight segueing to scattered afternoon high-based scattered cumulus field. Surface ridging remains steadfast over Upper Great Lakes through the workweek with gradual thermal moderation.
/NEW/ Update: No changes to the forecast through the short term as subsidence from mid level ridging and around the periphery of the tropical disturbance over South Texas will keep things hot and dry across North Texas. As this system continues to move farther inland on Monday, it will undercut the sprawling subtropical ridge to the north and begin to shift the ridge axis back to the east closer to North Texas. Southwest flow ahead of this disturbance and beneath the ridge will allow temperatures to climb further, with highs between 100-104 degrees areawide.
A weak low pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and high pressure well to our south will keep a light/moist SW/W wind flow across our area today. A trough of low pressure will remain over the eastern United States early this week keep a light south-southwest steering flow over South Florida. Highs will be in the 90s each day with heat indices in the lower 100s.
An upper ridge centered over the southern Plains will keep pulling monsoonal moisture into Nebraska and summertime heat and humidity for areas south of the front. As for max temps, they lie on the cooler end of the NBM envelope but toward the warmer MOS guidance. Did trend cooler across the northeast where more persistent cloud cover is expected. Made little change to previous min temp forecast for tonight, which ranges from upper 50s in the north to the lower 60s south. The main upper ridge backs off to the west a bit, which places Nebraska more into northwest flow aloft. Strong CAA at H85 will limit max temps, especially east of Hwy 83 where values are up to 10C cooler than today. Forecast values are in the lower to mid 70s.
615 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis will remain along the Red River Valley and a tropical system will slowly move west across south Texas into northern Mexico during the next 24 hours.
At the surface, the set-up is very similar to yesterday morning, with weak ridging in the Atlantic extending to the Bahamas, the weak low off of the Carolina coast, and another area of ridging extending into the Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite is already detecting the beginnings of a cloud line to the north of the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, a weakened western Atlantic ridge axis will linger across South Florida and the Keys.
Highs today in NE ND will reach the low 80s, and this combined with increased low level moisture will bring increased instability by afternoon into tonight. As the ridge that has been keeping the weather quiet moves east, we will enter northwesterly flow as a ridge forms in the SW US.
732 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Scattered showers will continue through mid week under upper level low pressure. Dry weather should return by the end of the week under high pressure. A trough across the Ern CONUS will continue to gradually deepen today. Continued deepening of the trough should continue until it becomes a closed low across the nern CONUS Tuesday.
Those looking for significant rainfall for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will have to wait for the evening as the vort max begins sliding south as it rounds the ridge axis. Predominant flow will be north-northwesterly through the workweek as the western ridge amplifies.
Additionally, showers have developed across the area, circulating around the low. Forecasted highs are in the low to mid-80s for areas along and north of a warm front with areas in the south reaching the upper 80s to upper 90s. This afternoon, low pressure continues to move across the region. Moisture in the region, the low, and a frontal boundary in the area will all aide in potential thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Cooler air will finally make it into the region with some very pleasant temperatures expected.
The bigger picture still shows quite a "troughy" pattern across much of the eastern CONUS and some weak impulses aloft may in fact traverse the peninsula during this time.
530 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Scattered showers will continue through mid week under upper level low pressure. Dry weather should return by the end of the week under high pressure. A trough across the Ern CONUS will continue to gradually deepen today. Continued deepening of the trough should continue until it becomes a closed low across the nern CONUS Tuesday.
Unfortunately, this moisture will only be a tease as subsidence will remain too considerable today thanks to an upper high parked over the TX Panhandle. Tuesday appears to be the beginning of a bonafide pattern change as the persistent upper level ridging over our area begins to break down with a tropical wave to our south moving west across the Big Bend and a surface cold front approaching from the north.
The Ohio Valley remains in between weather systems tonight on the western side of an upper level trough. Forecast lows are in the lower 60s.
Tuesday should have the lingering boundary near the southern part of the CWA so have pops mainly more confined to southern and eastern central GA in the afternoon, then increased some low end pops in parts of north GA late in the day as some increased moisture advects in with an approaching backdoor cold front and piece of energy digging southward in the western stream of the upper trough.
A trough of low pressure will remain over the eastern United States early this week keep a light south-southwest steering flow over South Florida. Highs will be in the 90s each day with heat indices in the lower 100s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s for the higher elevations and mid 50s elsewhere. Temperatures will increase through midweek with high temperatures reaching the high 90s to 100+ degrees. GFS/ECMWF models along with the short term models HRRR/SREF, are in good agreement with timing and location of the high pressure system. The models show that the high will build into the region by midweek bringing with it increasing warmer temperatures.
Low clouds start to lift after daybreak and ceilings eventually scatter this afternoon with the low moving further south of the area. The Ohio Valley remains in between weather systems tonight on the western side of an upper level trough. Forecast lows are in the lower 60s.
Otherwise, high pressure remains centered over James Bay this morning with a cold front stretched across southern Ontario. Pattern for the upcoming week is characterized by downstream broad troughing and upstream ridging.
High resolution models still show enough lingering moisture over the Bighorn Mountains to develop isolated convection this afternoon that may migrate eastward over Johnson County, but other than this, only the highest peaks look to have slight chances for afternoon showers. The pattern remains similar for Tuesday, with atmospheric moisture remaining limited, and any convective activity mainly confined to the high terrain. Temperatures will increase by a few degrees compared to Monday, as the ridge over the western CONUS amplifies further.
VFR will prevail through the period amid high pressure at the SFC and aloft. Deep layer ridging will yield a hot and mostly dry day across the area, with just a small chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across south central LA.
As the front passes northern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and the upper high forms a bit farther south and west of Oklahoma, temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s in northwestern Oklahoma instead of hotter conditions farther south.
The main holder of the cooler and dry conditions is the too upper level system the Midwest is squeezed between. With a Low pressure system, becoming cut-off into mid-week, and High pressure over the southern Plains, nw to se flow will hold through early week. A sfc disturbance will glide along the Mississippi River Valley tonight into Tuesday, as the trof broadens across the Ohio Valley, and digs into the southeast coast of the US. As the upper Low broadens out, causing the trof to expand, this holds the track of this wave to our southwest. Which will help to keep the cooler temperatures in place as winds off Lake Michigan remain in place through mid-week.
Satellite shows an overall pattern of ridging over the western two thirds of the country with a trough over the East Coast. At the surface, a warm front can be found stretching northwest to southeast across KS.
In addition, frontogenesis will be occurring along this band as a warm front strengthens.
Discussion: Upper lvl analysis and WV imagery depict deep layer troughing exists across much of the Eastern seaboard this afternoon placing the Southern Appalachians within cyclonic northwest flow aloft. Afternoon highs should be just a bit cooler tomorrow with low to mid 80s common.
241 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a large high over the southern Plains with a ridge over the western CONUS and a low over the northeast resulting in northwest flow over the Midwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms have already developed in the low level moisture convergence ahead of this system and will move into the northern and and western parts of the CWA late this afternoon and this evening. With more clouds and rain tomorrow it will be a cool August day with highs only in the lower-mid 70s. Britt Operational models and their ensembles are pointing toward an amplified upper pattern with a longwave ridge over the western CONUS and a trough in the northeast.
Another day, another chance of monsoon storms! High pressure anchored over the Great Basin will help usher in more moisture today, where isolated thunderstorms will once again pop up across the mountains and deserts.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper level low is currently centered across northern Mexico, west of Eagle Pass. This low is forecast to continue to track northwest, moving across the Big Bend region Tuesday morning. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low is forecast to remain south of our area, although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Tuesday, mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
WPC/NBM QPF has a swath of 1-2" of rain in this axis, but a couple of the Highres CAMS, ARW and Namnest suggest 3-5" could occur. We could easily handle the 2" of rain because it's been so dry, but if the higher amounts materialize, we'll have to monitor closely for some potential flooding.
317 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A cooler and unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the Midsouth through midweek, as upper level northwest flow prevails between a closed low over the Northeast and subtropical height ridge extending from the southern plains.
240 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Dry air and high pressure have expanded enough through the region to push all precipitation out of NE Montana.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The quiet weather continues today with a weak front moving through the area, bringing some cooler temps and northerly flow.
MLCAPE has increased to around 1500 j/kg in a very moist airmass with dew points in the lower 60s. May see a few severe storms early in the evening, with wind being the primary hazard, and perhaps an isolated hail threat with stronger updrafts, though deep layer shear is on the lower end and will limit the potential for hail. Temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the low to mid 50s.
A ridge over the region is causing mostly clear skies and a warming and drying trend. The humidity this afternoon and tomorrow will be some of the lowest values we've seen so far this summer.
1140 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary over the central Dakotas into central and eastern NE, with weak low pressure over south central SD area. Monsoonal moisture continues to wrap around the high from the southwest US to the northern Plains. A drier pattern will gradually develop over the next couple of days as upper high shifts slowly west toward the Four Corners region and ridge starts to build northward across the Rockies, eventually cutting off moisture and pushing most disturbances west and north of the region. As ridge builds over the Rockies during the midweek period, drier northwesterly flow aloft should limit pcpn chances through much of the week and into the weekend.
137 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Flattened ridge will bring more westerly flow aloft, shunting Monsoonal flow that has been over the area the past week or so to the south of the area.
1104 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Continued deepening of the trough should continue until it becomes a closed low across the nern CONUS Tuesday.
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Developing low pressure in the Southern Plains will activate a warm advection zone just to our west, and serve as an impetus for overrunning rainfall that commences as an H5 short wave pinwheels its energy into/thru its broad, long wave trof governing much of the Ohio River Valley. The highest chance for 3+ inch amounts will extend north and west from Carter-Ripley county, so for most of us, this will just give some appreciative rainfall.
The upper level trough situated over the eastern US is beginning to shift east which is causing the mid level trough to flatten out. The residual frontal boundary and trough at the surface over central FL is also beginning to dissipate. Another trough is expected to move south which will support a more distinct SW flow beginning tomorrow.