Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is a slight chance of freezing drizzle yet this afternoon and early evening for portions of central and north- central Minnesota before changing to all snow. There is a slight chance of light freezing drizzle as precip returns to the Brainerd Lakes area, but would change quickly to snow as the column saturates from the top down. Some locations in the higher terrain may pick up a little more than 6 inches. Upper-level ridging pushes into the region for the start of the work week.
Snow and any lingering freezing drizzle will come to an end over the next hour or so there. Upper level analysis places low over southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma pushing easterly, with low amplitude ridge over the western CONUS. A few weak short waves noted to the east of the ridge, with one scooting through the northern plains. For the rest of this afternoon into the evening, the transition from some light freezing drizzle to a little light snow will continue to push east through the remainder of the afternoon. On Sunday, western ridge amplifies and starts pushing east.
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to shift eastward with the mid/upper trough as it translates into the Middle Mississippi Valley area this evening and tonight.
The drier airmass behind the dryline/pre-frontal trough is distinctly noted on visbl satellite imagery. 24 Expect showers will gradually increase in coverage through late aftn and into the evening as the pre-frontal trough and cold front move into the area.
An upper level ridge will be building into the area tonight and will be over the area on Sun. Temps on Sun are generally expected to be a little cooler than today, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s over the plains, in the lower to mid 30s in the San Luis Valley, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s in the upper Arkansas River Valley and in Teller County.
528 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 The main concern in the short term is the chance for freezing drizzle through the evening hours. Forecast soundings continue to suggest freezing drizzle with good saturated in the lower levels and some drying aloft. Freezing drizzle is expected mainly through the mid-evening hours, mainly across far north central Nebraska. A ridge begins to build across the western CONUS giving us northwest flow for Sunday. Areas across the eastern CWA where snowpack continues to linger will see cooler temperatures with highs only in the mid to upper 30s.
426 PM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Current Visible Satellite loop across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska shows diminishing cloud cover along the Front Range as the split upper level trough axis has moved east of the area into the northern and central plains.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a <1000mb low nearing the mid Mississippi river valley as well and a ridge nosing west along the Gulf coast states. Ahead of the approaching cold front, a gusty south wind will continue to increase low level across our CWA. The cold front is expected to enter our northwest zones before midnight and exit our southeast zones by early afternoon.
We had that small chance for a little drizzle or freezing drizzle and that has pretty much ended now. Thankfully the temperatures in most locations climbed to just above freezing and the deep snowpack melted just enough on top to not really be a blowing concern.
Skies clear overnight as high pressure builds over the region.
Ridging keeps weather quiet through the rest of the weekend, and into the start of the new work week.
244 PM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Thanks to upper zonal flow today and the transition to a large ridge building over the western CONUS, more seasonably warm and dry temperatures will keep the weather rather quiet going into February. Patchy freezing fog could occur tonight for the locations along the MT ND state line, through Yellowstone River Valley with confidence decreasing to the extent westward.
Cooler temperatures have settled into the region with highs mostly topping out in the lower 60s across the lower deserts today.
210 PM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Current Visible Satellite loop across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska shows diminishing cloud cover along the Front Range as the split upper level trough axis has moved east of the area into the northern and central plains.
In the wake of the strong system passing through today, weak upper level ridging will persist for a few days. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 30s at Hays where a little snow cover lingers, to the lower 50s at Elkhart.
510 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Low pressure will bring accumulating snow and a wintry mix to the region for the start of the new week. No changes were needed for the early eve update as eroding high pressure and a deep layer of dry air will maintain dry weather for the region this evening. Later tonight, advancing low pressure will spread over the area from sw to ne, with snow across the majority of the forecast area by daybreak. Snow rates will pick up Sunday morning and afternoon given persistent mid level frontogenetic forcing on the eastern flank of the low; however, that feature is expected to weaken and shift northward as the overall wind field diminishes.
314 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Main concern through the forecast area will be persistent low level moisture and fog/freezing drizzle potential through the early morning hours. An inverted trough extends from southeast South Dakota through central North Dakota. 5 km saturated layer through the night, so expect fog and freezing drizzle will persist and slick roadways will continue to be a concern, even into Sunday morning. Clouds are expected to exit the region from west to east on Sunday as high pressure moves in.
Despite low- level dryness, freezing temps aloft combined with rather low wetbulb temps have let some sleet make it to the surface.
RMB/CLM Previous Discussion: Thanks to upper zonal flow today and the transition to a large ridge building over the western CONUS, more seasonably warm and dry temperatures will keep the weather rather quiet going into February. Patchy freezing fog could occur tonight for the locations along the MT ND state line, through Yellowstone River Valley with confidence decreasing to the extent westward.
713 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 High pressure will shift east of the region overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Rain will become widespread on Sunday before diminishing Sunday night as the cold front moves offshore.
/issued 221 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/ Upper level heights and surface pressure fields will continue slowly unwinding tonight on the back side of the strong upper level low pressure system crossing Missouri heading into the Ohio Valley. We are replacing most of the area that was in the High Wind Warning with a Wind Advisory and combining this with the previous Wind Advisory. Sunday will remain in dry northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge axis to the west over the Rockies gradually approaching. But temperatures should still recover to near or a little warmer than normal for the end of January. RMcQueen A broad ridging pattern will settle in for the first half of the upcoming week.
S winds ~12-14kts with gusts just over 20 kts will continue this evening, diminishing to around 6 kts near the frontal trough after 06z. The drier airmass behind the dryline/pre-frontal trough is distinctly noted on visbl satellite imagery. 24 Expect showers will gradually increase in coverage through late aftn and into the evening as the pre-frontal trough and cold front move into the area.
Warmer surface temperatures will keep impacts negligible if wintry precipitation does fall.
characterized by an amplifying ridge over the Central US and troughing aloft along the Pacific/Atlantic coasts.
A tranquil day of weather is expected on Sunday over all of eastern Utah and western Colorado as a ridge builds in over the southwestern CONUS. Expect sunny skies with high temperatures recovering upward by about 5-8 degrees, especially in the higher terrain. Overnight, some high clouds may drift overhead as the ridge axis shifts east of the Continental Divide by sunrise.
533 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Impacts this afternoon and evening remain possible across many areas, with freezing drizzle and light snow. As such, freezing drizzle will gradually change over to light snow through the afternoon and evening. Ridge builds into the Northern Plains during the early part of the week transitioning downstream by mid to late week.
320 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 The main concern in the short term is the chance for freezing drizzle through the evening hours. Forecast soundings continue to suggest freezing drizzle with good saturated in the lower levels and some drying aloft. Freezing drizzle is expected mainly through the mid-evening hours, mainly across far north central Nebraska. A ridge begins to build across the western CONUS giving us northwest flow for Sunday. Areas across the eastern CWA where snowpack continues to linger will see cooler temperatures with highs only in the mid to upper 30s.
/issued 325 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/ Midafternoon GOES water imagery showed a deep, compact negatively- tilted upper low centered between Fayetteville, AR and Springfield MO, lifting east. Numerous showers had developed downstream of the upper low over east AR, aided by low level warm advection and strongly diffluent flow aloft. With modest elevated MUCAPE around 200 J/KG, expect a few lightning strikes nearer to the upper low center through midevening, but severe storms are not expected. NAM depicted and 925mb / 2000ft AGL winds in excess of 50 KT this evening, around the southeast perimeter of the upper low. The low level inversion may be reinforced by rain this evening to make this mixing to the surface less likely.
Ridging develops over the area for Sunday with sunny skies and afternoon temperatures rebounding into the 40s, and possibly a few lower 50s depending on strength of mixing winds.
Main concern through the forecast area will be persistent low level moisture and fog/freezing drizzle potential through the early morning hours. An inverted trough extends from southeast South Dakota through central North Dakota. 5 km saturated layer through the night, so expect fog and freezing drizzle will persist and slick roadways will continue to be a concern, even into Sunday morning. Clouds are expected to exit the region from west to east on Sunday as high pressure moves in.
559 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 A storm system over southern Missouri this evening will continue to move to the east dragging a cold front through the state as it does. Clouds will break up slightly before moisture rotating around the upper low spreads back over the state.
329 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 In the wake of the strong system passing through today, weak upper level ridging will persist for a few days. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 30s at Hays where a little snow cover lingers, to the lower 50s at Elkhart.
Fog will quickly be scoured out from N-S before daybreak behind a cold front. A cold front will move across the area late tonight shifting winds to the north.
626 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Rain chances return Sunday along with warmer weather as another low pressure system moves across the Southeast.
104 PM PST Sat Jan 30 2021 The weather this weekend will be dry with a warming trend as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
The subsidence from this ridging along with dry air will put an end to the snow showers in the mountains late this evening. Additional snow accumulations across mountain ridges will be less than one inch this afternoon and early evening. As the ridging builds in across the region, the surface pressure gradient will weaken resulting in winds becoming lighter.
A cold front will move across the area late tonight shifting winds to the north.
Use caution if travelling overnight as below freezing temperatures may cause roadways to become slick in dense fog. RMB/CLM Thanks to upper zonal flow today and the transition to a large ridge building over the western CONUS, more seasonably warm and dry temperatures will keep the weather rather quiet going into February. Patchy freezing fog could occur tonight for the locations along the MT ND state line, through Yellowstone River Valley with confidence decreasing to the extent westward.
319 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Impacts this afternoon and evening remain possible across many areas, with freezing drizzle and light snow. As such, freezing drizzle will gradually change over to light snow through the afternoon and evening. Ridge builds into the Northern Plains during the early part of the week transitioning downstream by mid to late week.
944 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Rain chances return Sunday along with warmer weather as another low pressure system moves across the Southeast.
838 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Low pressure will bring accumulating snow and a wintry mix to the region for the start of the new week. No appreciable changes were needed for the late eve update as eroding high pressure and a deep layer of dry air is giving way to low pressure advancing out of the Midwest. Snow rates will pick up Sunday morning and afternoon given persistent mid level frontogenetic forcing on the eastern flank of the low; however, that feature is expected to weaken and shift northward as the overall wind field diminishes.
325 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Midafternoon GOES water imagery showed a deep, compact negatively- tilted upper low centered between Fayetteville, AR and Springfield MO, lifting east. Numerous showers had developed downstream of the upper low over east AR, aided by low level warm advection and strongly diffluent flow aloft. With modest elevated MUCAPE around 200 J/KG, expect a few lightning strikes nearer to the upper low center through midevening, but severe storms are not expected. NAM depicted and 925mb / 2000ft AGL winds in excess of 50 KT this evening, around the southeast perimeter of the upper low. The low level inversion may be reinforced by rain this evening to make this mixing to the surface less likely.
There are a few lightning strikes over southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma near the cold front where there has been some sunshine and some dewpoints over 50F.
/issued 230 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/ An upper level trough is over the central/southern plains with the base of the trough moving over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Strong winds from the base of the trough are mixing down towards the surface resulting in high winds across most of the mountain areas and advisory conditions across the Southeast New Mexico plains and most of the plains of West Texas. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect until 6 pm CST/5 pm MST today.
As such high temps will be near seasonal U50s- L60s most areas, except a little cooler in mtns above 5kft and warmer along the Rio Grande. Lee troffing and low-level thermal ridging will start to expand Tue-Wed with a noticeable warming trend, high temps around 10 to 15 degrees above normal, respectively. By Thur a cold nrn stream trof will push a cold front s thru the plains, but how far s? The front will have a chance to be in or near the nrn CWFA late Thur PM and then at least s of I-20 Fri AM. Meanwhile a mid-level trof and assocd strong jet may generate -SHRA Thur PM and/or -SHRA/-SHSN Fri AM.
212 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 AT 2 AM, light to moderate snow continue to fall across the Upper Mississippi River Valley associated with wrap around moisture from a low pressure system over northern Illinois. The highest totals will be found in Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 59 34 38 29 / 90 60 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 54 34 37 28 / 90 60 60 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 35 53 33 37 27 / 90 50 40 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 51 33 35 25 / 90 70 80 80 70 TN.
IFR ceilings at VCT should linger until a cold front drops south around 10Z ahead of VFR conditions and eventually gusty N winds by mid- morning across the eastern terminals. A cold front will move across the area late tonight shifting winds to the north.
There are a few lightning strikes over southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma near the cold front where there has been some sunshine and some dewpoints over 50F. A change over to snow will be possible by late Sunday evening, but surface temperatures will struggle to get to freezing, so this looks like another low to no impact event. Healthy southeast winds this afternoon will veer to south and eventually southwest as the low passes tonight. Winds will shift to west or northwest in the wake of the low Sunday and continue through Monday.
1002 mb low pressure was analyzed just south of Springfield early this morning. Water vapor and satellite imagery indicated the center of mid level low pressure farther northeast along the IL/IN border. Temperatures are expected to hold fairly steady today in the low/mid 30s (except near 40 far southeast), and with clouds remaining overnight, lows primarily in the mid 20s.
111 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 High pressure will move away from the region through daybreak as a cold front approaches from the west with rain showers moving into the region during the predawn hours. Rain will become widespread on Sunday before diminishing Sunday night as the cold front moves offshore.
North winds will increase down the lower Colorado River Valley Sunday, otherwise expect winds to be light.
Some lingering troughiness and lakeside convergence will keep some snow shower chances going mainly in the evening before finally diminishing. Plenty of low level moisture with the low level thermal trough in place so will keep things on the cloudier side.
1023 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 High pressure will shift east of the region overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Rain will become widespread on Sunday before diminishing Sunday night as the cold front moves offshore.
Persistent southwest winds should be enough to keep temperatures in the Great Falls area from falling much more than they have as of 830 pm, but lighter winds in the other mentioned areas will allow temperatures to fall into the upper single digits above zero to the lower teens. Coulston Skies clear overnight as high pressure builds over the region.
Short term forecast is playing out largely as expected with lapse rates increasing as an upper level low approaches the Missouri Kansas border. Thunderstorms have developed over northeast Oklahoma as instability increases with the arrival of sunshine and surface dew point climb into the lower 50s ahead of an approaching cold front. The remaining precipitation will diminish as the upper low tracks northeastward through the CWA. The influence of the upper low will advect off to the east on Monday initiating a warming trend through midweek as heights climb with the arrival of the upper ridge.
After a chilly start, mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected for Sunday, with slightly warmer temperatures.
/issued 325 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/ Midafternoon GOES water imagery showed a deep, compact negatively- tilted upper low centered between Fayetteville, AR and Springfield MO, lifting east. Numerous showers had developed downstream of the upper low over east AR, aided by low level warm advection and strongly diffluent flow aloft. With modest elevated MUCAPE around 200 J/KG, expect a few lightning strikes nearer to the upper low center through midevening, but severe storms are not expected. NAM depicted and 925mb / 2000ft AGL winds in excess of 50 KT this evening, around the southeast perimeter of the upper low. The low level inversion may be reinforced by rain this evening to make this mixing to the surface less likely. The upper low will track through the Ohio River valley on Sunday, and reach the mid-Atlantic seaboard by Monday evening.
1058 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low working its way across Oklahoma this afternoon, dryslotting West Central Texas. A cold front follows the the upper level storm system and pushes across the area late tonight and into Sunday. Gusty north winds for at least part of the day, along with a little cooler temperatures.
Otherwise, a strong 500mb ridge will build over the region and dominate the weather pattern through the short term forecast period, keeping us relatively warm and dry.
Pcpn will only gradually spread east across our CWA Monday as the main upper trough continues to dig south along the coast.
1044 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 The main concern in the short term is the chance for freezing drizzle through the evening hours. Forecast soundings continue to suggest freezing drizzle with good saturated in the lower levels and some drying aloft. Freezing drizzle is expected mainly through the mid-evening hours, mainly across far north central Nebraska. A ridge begins to build across the western CONUS giving us northwest flow for Sunday. Areas across the eastern CWA where snowpack continues to linger will see cooler temperatures with highs only in the mid to upper 30s.
A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today, and push through the area late this afternoon and overnight Sunday night. The cold front will move through this evening, and showers and embedded storms are expected along the front.
characterized by an amplifying ridge over the Central US and troughing aloft along the Pacific/Atlantic coasts. as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies and expands eastward atop the High Plains. mainly north and east of Goodland where (1) snow accumulations were greater, (2) cloud cover /fog/ has been fairly pervasive/persistent, and (3) temperatures have remained below freezing for several days. Northwest flow aloft prevails at the start of the period as upper ridging slides into the High Plains.
124 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 High pressure moves into W Atlantic today with southerly low level flow increasing temps and moisture for the local area. Associated complex surface storm system to move well N of the area but attendant cold front expected to move towards N FL late this afternoon with clouds increasing areawide and chances for showers in the N Nature Coast. Modest upper energy to wrap around base of upper trough to push cold front through the FL Peninsula tonight with broad band of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of and along the front as it moves south through the area, SPC continues to show general thunderstorms with this system. NW flow aloft to bring cold Canadian high pressure airmass into the region on breezy NW-N winds for much cooler and drier conditions.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain mostly clear skies and light northerly winds overnight and after sunset Sunday.
858 PM PST Sat Jan 30 2021 Dry and warmer Sunday as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest. Moisture aloft will cloud the skies by Monday, and may even result in some showers over the higher mountains, but mostly dry and mild weather will prevail at lower elevations.
Ridging develops over the area for Sunday with sunny skies and afternoon temperatures rebounding into the 40s, and possibly a few lower 50s depending on strength of mixing winds. Chambers Upper level ridging will bring dry, warm conditions to much of the area for the first part of the work week.
156 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof shifting further east with large ridge crossing the Rockies. At the surface, ridge is located over the western Dakotas, with low stratus along and east of a Lemmon to Pine Ridge line. Low stratus and fog will gradually shift east/dissipate this morning as drier air works in with approaching upper ridge.
1040 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Currently - High pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge southeastwards past the Bahamas and towards Puerto Rico. The lower to mid level ridge is broad and aligned across our area, with nearly zonal flow aloft. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather overnight. With that said, the ridge axis will sing further out into the Atlantic and relaxing the local pressure gradient. A ridge extending from the Atlantic coast to Puerto Rico will swing further eastwards overnight.