Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect fog and low ceilings to develop later tonight and early Tuesday morning as cooler air moves over moist ground.
Meanwhile, next mid- level impulse associated with the upper low over the gulf should reinvigorate organized convection over the eastern gulf this afternoon, with numerous showers and embedded lightning storms spreading west to east across CWA later this afternoon/evening. Offshore directed component will not raise seas in phase with the higher wind speeds until later in the period.
/12Z TAF/ Water vapor imagery shows upper low over the north central Gulf of Mexico with NE flow over SE Texas. /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ An upper level low pressure trough will continue to move slowly eastward east of Texas. Both show a ridge building over the Rockies during the mid week period as the trough over the Gulf coast moves northeastward and merges with the upper low over New England and NY. The ECMWF builds a weak ridge across the Gulf of Mexico from the east and the Pacific across Mexico to the west, with a weakness in the ridge over Texas.
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 309 AM CDT High pressure will continue to build over the upper Mississippi Valley today leading to dry and sunny conditions. Didn't go as high as guidance suggests, but trended warmer. JEE 309 AM CDT High pressure will dominate the pattern through mid week with no measurable precip expected.
1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A perfect weather day is expected today as high pressure centered up by Lake Superior remains in control.
High pressure will result in dry weather through Tuesday with warming for the interior. Wed will be a transition day as a cold front and upper level trough approach, ultimately bringing a period of rain and cooler temps Wed night and Thu. A cool upper low will slowly move across the region late in the week and through the weekend for showery and cool weather.
629 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A perfect weather day is expected today as high pressure centered up by Lake Superior remains in control.
The increasing south to southwest flow will also cause tides to run about 1 to 2 feet above normal along the Nature Coast around the time of the highest tides which is around midday today and Wednesday.
613 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The synoptic pattern early this morning features a strong upper- level trough diving into the eastern Great Lakes region, which will keep northerly flow over the Midwest through the period. The surface cold front has pushed into far southern MO, allowing for much drier air to work into the region in its wake. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the area, about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 61 82 60 / 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 58 77 59 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 80 58 78 57 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 52 75 55 / 10 10 20 30.
/issued 327 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ An upper level ridge will remain stationary over the western U. During this time, a series of weak disturbances will move southeast along the front edge of the ridge bringing a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. The highest rain chances will be in southeastern New Mexico and the higher elevations from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Davis Mountains. With the ridge holding off to the west, we can also expect temperatures to remain near normal. An upper trough will then move on to the west coast over the weekend, dampening the ridge and changing our flow from the north to the west.
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system keeps temperatures above normal.
This will be followed by an active, showery and much cooler spring-like pattern starting as early as Wednesday evening that will linger on through the end of the week and through the weekend. /Pelatti 12Z TAFS: High pressure amplifying over the aviation area will allow VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours.
High pressure bringing clearing skies and breezy northwest winds to the region. Ebert Previous short term discussion:The base of an upper level short- wave trough, extending south from Saskatchewan, swings through Northeast Montana today. The result will be cooler temperatures, close to normal for early June. The trough then will work its way into North Dakota and Manitoba tonight.
1115 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The airmass across the region will be moist and unstable ahead of a slow moving cold front today.
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A cold front will move through the area today bringing drier conditions. Today Through Wednesday Night Upper low pressure over Louisiana will continue to move east today and an upper ridge will build over the Rockies. The upper ridge will ease into the Plains tonight through Wednesday night. Drier air will move into the area tonight and cooler conditions are expected Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the large upper low to the east is driving cold northerly flow gusting to 20 to 25 knots. Upper level trough axis to slide just south of lower Michigan tonight, with negative upper level PV Advection and subsidence tomorrow leading to a mostly sunny day.
/issued 437 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ (Today-tonight) Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the area today as an upper ridge strengthens to our west.
A low pressure system will be located over the northern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Farther south, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Cuba today.
656 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A positively tilted upper trof was centered from western KS into the TX Panhandle early this morning. The models are in relatively good agreement with the upper trof taking on a negative tilt as it advances east-northeast into the Mid MS Valley today. There should be an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon not only along and ahead of the advancing front, but also extending northward into northeast MO in response to strong large scale ascent/forcing with the upper trof and frontal forcing. The main threat of storms this evening should be across IL along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The upper trof and attendant low however will be moving to the east at a good clip and I think most of the precipitation will be over by midnight.
Lows will range from the lower 70s interior to mid to upper 70s along srn coastal sections. High pressure ridging remains deep and north of the area providing for deep ESE-ENE flow areawide.
1036 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 The cold front has pushed south of the area, but lingering showers and storms continues across portions of the western CWA. /12Z_TAFS/ Gusty northerly winds up to 30 knots with borderline MVFR-VFR overcast ceilings are expected this morning at all TAF sites behind a cold front that passed through a few hours ago. Wind gusts should decrease below 10 knots later this afternoon or early evening as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure moves in. Early morning surface observations show a cold front located along a line from Austin-Bergstrom airport to Hondo to Spofford. All areas can expect gusty north winds today as high pressure builds in behind the front.
1053 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A Positively tilted ridge will be building in from the west today along with temperatures inversions this morning.
The morning MFL RAOB sounding shows CAPE below 2,000 J/KG with stable conditions in the lower levels.
High temperatures today will be well below normal, but warmer than yesterday across portions of northern and western New Mexico.
Current surface analysis places high pressure from the upper midwest through the northern/central plains into the central Rockies. Freezing temperatures are noted over many portions of the area, though a few spots over the north have remained a bit on the warmer side as a few clouds pass over, though have seen temps dive down as the clouds exit. Upper flow shifts southwest as trough digs into the western United States.
The highest moisture will remain across southeast Georgia, underneath the strong 500mb high over the region.
Anticipating a gradual increase in visibility after 13-14Z, although many sites will see MVFR cigs as a cold front passes. Today Through Wednesday Night Upper low and cold front continue approaching this morning and mosaic radar showing ongoing line of convection in far eastern OK as of 830Z. Drier and cooler air will begin filtering in through the day today, especially across the western half of the area. By tonight, some higher elevation areas will drop into the low 40s with all areas finally seeing the cooler, post- frontal air before daybreak Wednesday.
917 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Cold front weakens as it enters southeast OH on Wednesday.
We'll start to warm up again today with a quick ridge of high pressure and gusty east winds. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well above average later in the week. Latest WV imagery shows an upper low ejecting through the Central Plains with flat ridging across our area behind this feature. A fairly quiet weather regime through the remainder of the week into this weekend as west to southwesterly flow aloft will prevail as broad troughing builds into the northwestern CONUS with a strong ridge over the Gulf Coast states.
1059 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Upper level analysis has cut-off closed low over Kansas with ridging building across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is located across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with a weak lee trof developing across central Montana. Warmer air aloft will continue to build in today and Wednesday, eventually allowing for a warming trend into midweek.
519 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Upper level analysis has cut-off closed low over Kansas with ridging building across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is located across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with a weak lee trof developing across central Montana. Warmer air aloft will continue to build in today and Wednesday, eventually allowing for a warming trend into midweek.
925 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
A period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall appears possible through the first half of the day across western portions of the CWA where combo of well above normal PW, low level convergence and terrain enhanced south- southeast moisture transport along warm frontal zone may support pockets of 1" pcpn totals.
/Issued 301 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ The upper level trough was ejecting out of the southern Rockies and onto the Southern High Plains overnight, and will move off towards the Great Lakes later this evening. As upper trough moves through Kansas and on up into Iowa, we could see a few scattered rain showers develop on the backside of the system through the morning hours. Temperatures will quickly rebound back into the 80s towards the latter half of the week as trough moving into the western CONUS places the area back in southwest flow aloft.
Weak warm front lifting through the area out ahead of advancing cold front producing some light, isolated-to-scattered, showers around the area but most areas are staying dry. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 72 86 63 / 70 30 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 67 85 64 / 60 40 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 67 85 62 / 60 40 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 67 84 63 / 50 40 40 20.
Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue through the day until a cold frontal passage this afternoon but VFR will continue to prevail. The first true cold front of the season extends down into central Texas and is projected to move into the lakes region of southeast Texas before the noon hour. Cooler afternoon temps are in store also for the aftn hrs with highs expected into the mid 80s.
Main cold front has pushed well south and east of the area, but today we will still feel the blustery effects of the significant airmass change. Low clouds will be slow to clear out today, especially given trough axis is still to the west with continued cyclonic flow/strong low level cold advection ongoing. If clouds persist much of the afternoon, then temperatures will stay steady in the low to mid 50s with little recovery.
Upper low and accompanying cold front approaching the area will drive breezy conditions through the day with gusts to 30 mph across open terrain. Seeing little change in the forecast models regarding the timing and precipitation potential with the cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft will draw warmer air into the region, resulting in near-normal high temperatures. A cold front located off the PacNW coast this morning will move through SE Oregon late tonight and SW Idaho on Wednesday. An upper trough will then approach the area for a chance of showers in portions of SE Oregon and the northern high terrain of SW Idaho Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler at most locations.
Meanwhile a potent upper low is located over Kansas. The upper low passing by well north of the region will provide some decent 0-6km shear at 30-40 kts and SBCAPEs have already climbed above 1500 j/kg across the Delta. The long awaited cold front will progress through the Midsouth this evening, putting an end to precipitation chances and sending temperatures and humidity plummeting.
1139 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A positively tilted upper trof was centered from western KS into the TX Panhandle early this morning. The models are in relatively good agreement with the upper trof taking on a negative tilt as it advances east-northeast into the Mid MS Valley today. There should be an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon not only along and ahead of the advancing front, but also extending northward into northeast MO in response to strong large scale ascent/forcing with the upper trof and frontal forcing. The main threat of storms this evening should be across IL along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The upper trof and attendant low however will be moving to the east at a good clip and I think most of the precipitation will be over by midnight.
/issued 740 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ High pressure. Will keep the highest pops across the north today since the models seem to favor an axis of higher moisture from southwest to northeast across the state.
935 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Temperatures have climbed above freezing in the western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas Panhandles. The closed upper low over southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle early today will move east of the forecast area allowing for an upper ridge to build in over the Panhandles today and tonight.
1020 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Update High pressure will bring fair weather this morning with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s by the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase with rain arriving late in the day and persisting into Wednesday as low pressure tracks south of Lower Michigan.
A weak cold front will move across the area today.
/issued 435 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The cold front has moved south of the area, and continues to move south through the Hill Country.
A Pacific Northwest storm system will bring much cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week. High pressure is over the forecast area this morning, resulting in generally tranquil conditions with just a few high clouds over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. The ridge will continue to track east today, with the axis moving east of Utah this afternoon. This will allow for some breezy conditions and will also result in even warmer temperatures for tomorrow.
/issued 313 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ As the trough over the Plains moves off to the northeast, upper level flow will become more zonal before ridging builds in as the high over the southeast builds west.
644 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Showers and thunderstorms have finally shifted south of the DFW Metroplex TAF sites this morning along with the low-level frontal zone. Now that the front has shifted southeast and the upper trough axis is pivoting away, forcing has decreased along with the intensity of convection.
Weak high pressure will return to the region over the next couple days allowing high temperatures to climb back several degrees above the seasonal average through Wednesday. Near steady high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will then affect the lower deserts each day through the weekend.
/issued 342 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ Very weak trough axis showing up with a gentle convergence zone from Vermilion Bay to Baton Rouge to near McComb this morning. A cold front will also make its way into that aforementioned area which will simply enhance sh/ts activity. A broad ridge of high pressure centered north of the coastal waters will keep a general east wind forecast through the end of the week.
859 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure extending over the area will weaken today as a cold front approaches from the west.
A tilted high pressure from northwest Florida to the mid-Atlantic will stretch today and tilt more from WSW to ENE over southeast US by tonight.
/issued 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ The well advertised, strong cold front has already crossed into Mexico early this morning. An upper trough over the TX Panhandle this morning will lift into the Mississippi River Valley today as high pressure settles in at the surface over Texas. Upper ridging over the SE U.
740 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure. Will keep the highest pops across the north today since the models seem to favor an axis of higher moisture from southwest to northeast across the state.
728 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather this morning with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s by the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase with rain arriving late in the day and persisting into Wednesday as low pressure tracks south of Lower Michigan.
TFJ A broad upper ridge will build into Montana today, with a trough over British Columbia moving generally southward into the Pacific NW. With winds out of the south and southwest today, warmer air will move into the region, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to reach the 60s across NE Montana. The upper ridge begins to move eastward Wednesday, and expect slightly warmer temperatures with northeast Montana seeing high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
/12Z_TAFS/ Gusty northerly winds up to 30 knots with borderline MVFR-VFR overcast ceilings are expected this morning at all TAF sites behind a cold front that passed through a few hours ago. Wind gusts should decrease below 10 knots later this afternoon or early evening as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure moves in. Early morning surface observations show a cold front located along a line from Austin-Bergstrom airport to Hondo to Spofford. All areas can expect gusty north winds today as high pressure builds in behind the front.
1024 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Surface observations show the leading edge of the cold front extends from Alexandria southwest towards north of Beaumont. Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue through the day until a cold frontal passage this afternoon but VFR will continue to prevail. The first true cold front of the season extends down into central Texas and is projected to move into the lakes region of southeast Texas before the noon hour. Cooler afternoon temps are in store also for the aftn hrs with highs expected into the mid 80s.
932 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Most locations experienced near to below freezing temperatures for lows this morning, but temperatures have now risen enough to allow for expiration of the freeze warning. With abundant sunshine and relatively dry air aloft bringing a quick warm up this morning, it should feel noticeably warmer than yesterday. The entire region is below freezing, with most areas at or below 28F. Highs today should be slightly warmer than yesterday, with near or below freezing temperatures again expected for Wednesday morning (but not as cold as this morning).
550 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Mid/upper level low is over western KS and in the process of transitioning eastward.
621 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing an upper low centered over the central High Plains preparing to push into WRN KS. At the surface, large area of high pressure was pretty much in control over most of the central CONUS. Also, a cold front extended from ERN IA to ERN OK with cold air advection spilling into the central Plains.
1130 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Hydro High pressure will bring fair weather this morning with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s by the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase with rain arriving late in the day and persisting into Wednesday as low pressure tracks south of Lower Michigan.
Widespread freezing conditions were experienced this morning, bringing a close to the frost/freeze program here until next spring.
708 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure extending over the area will weaken today as a cold front approaches from the west.
626 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 The entire region is below freezing, with most areas at or below 28F. Highs today should be slightly warmer than yesterday, with near or below freezing temperatures again expected for Wednesday morning (but not as cold as this morning).
1039 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 An upper low currently sits across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Just north of the upper low is upper ridging across BC Canada setting up a blocking pattern over the western to central CONUS. A weak cold front will push through with some light showers possible over portions of northeast WY and northwest SD.
1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A mild night ahead as a warm front lifts northeast into western Nebraska tonight. The low clouds in the southwest spread north and east overnight, where temperatures should fall a few degrees overnight with low temperatures by daybreak still in the 50s.
As of 20z Wednesday afternoon an upper level trough was centered across southern Idaho. At the surface, the cold front has slowly pushed into southern KS.
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A relative lull in precipitation chances will take place tonight into early Thursday morning with a cold front stalled out between I- 72 and I-70, then precipitation will increase Thursday as southerly flow across the area pushes the front northward as a warm front. Areas between I-72 and I-70 may see high temperatures increase a few degrees to around 80 due to the northward migration of the front through the day, but otherwise temperatures will be roughly the same as Wednesday with highs from the lower and mid 70s north of I-72 and the lower 80s south of I-70.
1228 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A cold front will cross the area overnight followed by a secondary cold front Thursday night.
958 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 The H700-300 ridge remains anchored this evening from Cntrl TX NE into SW AR, although the Ch. Subsidence beneath the ridge and the extent of dry air noted on the 00Z KSHV raob will preclude the development of any -SHRA overnight, but the short term progs are in agreement with areas of AC/cirrus cigs gradually spreading SE into the Nrn half of the region overnight. Only made very minor adjustments to min temps, as enough breaks in the cloud cover, light winds, and the sfc dry air/low dewpoints in place should allow temps to fall into the lower/mid 60s over much of the region.
Considerable cloudiness to overcast with high coverage of rain will limit high temps to the lower 80s in most places, possibly a few mid 80s over Lake county.
Otherwise looking for temps to fall into the 60s overnight as dew points are in the low to mid 60s w/ light easterly winds. /issued 418 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ Warm and pleasant day ongoing with dry high pressure reestablished over the region. High pressure progged similarly by models to hold through the remainder of the work-week keeping the area under a dry north to northeast flow aloft. None-the-less, will see a dry weather pattern persist with warm days continuing, but nights slightly cooler with drier air in place.