Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TAPER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF LOOKS TO BE ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES.
1032 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Look for the wind to decrease early this evening as our fast moving cold front moves out of the Inland Northwest. This is associated with the upper trough that will pivot across the region later tonight and Sunday. A more substantial area of showers will continue to slowly push east of the Cascade crest tonight, moving across eastern WA and north ID overnight and Sunday as an upper level trough pivots across the region over the next 24 hours.
THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. EXCEPT FOR COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MI. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TODAY IT WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP- BILLINGS- SHERIDAN LINE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL VERY WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S COMMON.
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE- DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST-- WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IF THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC WED NIGHT. NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC EFFECTS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE REGIONAL TROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE 300MB INFLECTION OF THESE FEATURES PUT A HIGH CENTER JUST SOUTH OF US WITH THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS SHOWING UP VERY WELL AT H3 RELATIVELY WELL STACKED. THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE THAT WE SAW WEST OF TUCSON YESTERDAY WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES (THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA) SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. SOUTHEAST WYOMING REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH PREVAILING CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW-VFR CATEGORY. PRIMARY GULF COAST CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW AFTN -- RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.
HAVE TRENDED DOWN A BIT AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS ORIENTED ALONG/NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST. ANOTHER DAY OF GARDEN VARIETY STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS FORECAST.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 70.
COOLER WITH SHOWERS AROUND REGION THIS AM. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLIER THIS AM. A COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE REGION.
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MORE INFLUENTIAL ON KEEPING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STREAMING THROUGH NORTHWEST PA. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT UNV.
A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EVEN AS MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX SUN NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE SUN NIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW.
306 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 EARLY THIS MRNG THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW. THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP BY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF REACHING THE LOWER 80S WILL BE OVER NW AL WHERE THE CHC OF PCPN IS NOT THAT GREAT.
THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR MOBILE AL THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH TONIGHT.
412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. 5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. /EC/ GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE.
426 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY.
OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BUT UNCERTAIN WE WILL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTH OF I-69 IS WHERE COOLER MID LEVELS PERSIST LONGER AND WHERE A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPS IS THERE WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 16 C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ELEVATED DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG AS SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PLACE.
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US.
Water vapor imagery reveals a dynamic Pacific trough moving east towards the Washington coastline. On Monday temperatures will be a little warmer but still below normal especially across northwest and west-central Montana.
Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will spread across the Midwest and temperatures will warm to above average.
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY THEREAFTER. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOME FOR MONDAY AND AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE REMAINS OF ERIKA WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL IN ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR MONDAY(20-30 PERCENT) EXCEPT FOR THE AREA SE OF DUBLIN WHERE CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 90S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY AS MOST STORMS WILL DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MON. FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING FOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MON AFTERNOON AS WELL. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND 70S/80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
321 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper level low/weakness will remain across West Central Texas today and slowly drift south. Temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s across the Big Country, where less cloud cover is expected, to the low 90s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
CURRENT WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS.
622 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
133 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET STREAK. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND DEPARTS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY. AND WEAK RIDGING.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY.
A broad upper trough remains over Northern California. Temperatures across the forecast area are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday morning. These forecast highs are a few degrees cooler than normal. Temperatures should warm slightly on Monday as high pressure tries to build into California from the south.
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE CWA FOR THE MOMENT AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE RAP SHOWS SOME WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASED ASCENT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX.
1005 PM MST SAT AUG 29 2015 THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
456 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015 UPPER TROF ACROSS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN U. S ROCKIES NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THOUGH DEW POINTS STILL LOOK A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TOWARDS 12Z MON. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MORE INFLUENTIAL ON KEEPING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI.
SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18 DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PREVAILING AS THE WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE DON/T APPEAR TO MOVE MUCH UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST.
305 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015 THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (BEST CHANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY) AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY GETS PICKED UP AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE NORTHEAST US/SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. ERIKA HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ONLY HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REEMERGES AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS IS PROG TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BISECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
A CLOSED-LOW TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PULL TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ESPECIALLY THOSE WEST OF I-65 WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S. BUT WITH THE PASSAGE THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID WEEK. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.
HIGHER HEIGHTS/STRONGER RIDGE. THE GFS/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. RIDGE AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
258 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 High pressure currently extending from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast will control the weather across central Illinois today. With ridge axis drifting overhead and subsidence inversion lowering, mixing heights will be limited to 2000ft or less. This will result in afternoon high temperatures a degree or two colder than yesterday, with readings only reaching the lower to middle 30s. As high pressure shifts east of the region, a southerly return flow will bring warmer weather back into Illinois on Sunday. The pressure gradient between the departing high and an approaching cold front will tighten sufficiently to produce sustained southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph. While high clouds will rapidly increase and limit insolation, strong WAA will help boost high temperatures into the lower to middle 50s.
WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS ENTERING WRN MN AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS. NOT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH COMING THROUGH. WHICH WILL KEEP US FROM REACHING OUR FULL POTENTIAL ON THE LOWS. THOUGH EXPECT TEMPERATURES THERE TO RISE OR REMAIN STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT THIS WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. A BROAD TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND SPAWN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD HANG ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND LIMIT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR IS KEEPING LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AFF AND TAD IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND SPD AND ALS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY GAP WINDS. IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY IN 20S AT THE PEAKS. AND 30S FOR THE MTNS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
337 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR CLIMO HIGHS WILL OCCUR TODAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.