Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SE ON SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. LOOKING AT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONSET FOR MOST JUST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND MIXING POTENTIAL. A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH A CLOSED LOW DESCENDING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT OPENS UP. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
1240 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
331 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
304 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 (Today and Tonight) A northwest flow aloft continues over the forecast area as upper level ridging continues to build over the western CONUS. A weak cold front will move into the northern Big Country early this afternoon and should be entering the Interstate 10 corridor by early evening. The degree of pre-frontal warming today will depend on the speed of the cold front with mid 60s expected for afternoon highs in the Big Country and upper 60s to around 70 degrees expected this afternoon south of Interstate 20.
The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. As far as temperatures go, much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact temperatures much at all.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
928 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016 Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday bringing dry weather and light winds.
257 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW KS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, BUT IT'S UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
Turning Much Colder and A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this evening. The high temperature will likely occur shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower 30s or upper 20s by the afternoon.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 1002 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.
A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.
326 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA.
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. ADK WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
1049 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 856 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ UPPER LOW OVER AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCT CLOUDS ARND OVERNIGHT THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS VALUES. UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE AL WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CI/AC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ARND 00Z AS A UPPER TROF/CDFNT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA.
THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
322 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUR SFC WINDS ARE CALM OR LIGHT SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT KTPL AND DRIFTING E. CU HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL THAT IS NOTED ON REGIONAL IR IMAGERY IS THIN CIRRUS THAT WILL BE SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
INITIAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING BEHIND COLD FRONT QUITE VIGOROUS WITH MANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS.
A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST. SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
High temps should top out a degree or two warmer than yesterday reaching the low to mid 50s by this afternoon. Short range models continue to vary on the amount of moisture pooling along the initial cold front progged to cross the region tonight. After midnight, temps will fall into the lower 30s and the boundary layer will likely become cold enough for a mix of rain/snow or a period of all light snow especially closer to sunrise. Some of the high-res models and forecast soundings indicate a good shot at convective snow showers for locations cold enough late Mon afternoon/evening which may result in bursts of moderate to at times heavy snow.
A cold front will begin to affect the terminals at the end of this TAF period.
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WARMER VALUES AGAIN ON MONDAY GIVEN 2 METER AND 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
346 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY.
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO LOWER MI. QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. NARROWING MOISTURE AXIS (PW VALUES AROUND HALF AN INCH)/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN 20Z-00Z MONDAY. THERE IS GROWING INDICATIONS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/FRONT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO ACTIVATE.
404 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS BEYOND THE 24 HOUR POINT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MID 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S MOST AREAS.
THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS (ESTIMATED) AT UP TO 200 METERS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. RIDGING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM STARTS TO MOVE OUR WAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 800 FT AGL BY 18Z ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF MIDDLE TN.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA. BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
200 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST YESTERDAY PUTTING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA. 11 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 1 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE 20S. AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH THE WARMER DESERTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE CWA. THIS HAD TAKEN THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A STRONG DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME COLD STRATOCU TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST PORT OF CWA FROM AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THE LOW TO THE EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST.
SNOWFALL WILL WORK TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE AREA.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA TODAY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL COME TOO LATE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS AND THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMING. I KEPT TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ACTUALLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE. WITH MOST OF THE AREA WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM RACING THE SETTING SUN. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ERASED. NO HEADLINES WERE HOISTED ON THIS SHIFT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
/issued 319 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ The first upper trough has moved through the area and the next is set to arrive tonight. A cold front also moved through yesterday bringing cooler temperatures and with increasing moisture the stage is set for our first decent chance for rainfall in a few weeks. Conditions could be marginal in the Guadalupe Mountains which favor a more westerly wind direction for strong winds; therefore decided to continue the High Wind Watch for now and will let the day shift make the final decision as to whether or not to upgrade to a warning. Tuesday we will see a resurgence of cold air in the wake of the departing trough and windy conditions that could approach advisory levels.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING LATE TONIGHT. THUS NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED GIVEN SHORT DURATION AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ENDS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH LOWS IN THE 20S.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
329 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT PER RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND NEARBY LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.
1234 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
953 AM PST MON FEB 22 2016 UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH INTERIOR CALIFORNIA HAS NOW MOVED INTO AZ. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPED BEHIND IT AND CURRENTLY THERE ARE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ERN VENTURA COUNTY TO LA COUNTY. THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE IT WILL JUST BE A LITTLE WEAKER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SITUATED DOWN ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. WILL KEEP WITH THE THEME OF THE PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000 FT ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. JMC FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR MOST AREAS. THE MAIN REASON THE FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE ELEVATED ON TUE WILL BE DUE TO COOLER TEMPS RESULTING IN HIGHER RH'S.
BUT THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS DROP INTO THE LOWEST VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE -31C COLD CORE RAKES THE NORTH.
MODEL TRENDS OF COOLER COLUMN AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CANNOT BE IGNORED. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN AREA OF CONCERN.
242 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 PATCHY LGT RAIN OVER NORTH LA DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS AREA. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO DESERT SW SHOWING SIGNS OF ARRIVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER. POSITION OF WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH IN ASSOC WITH THIS LOW WILL DICTATE NWD POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SATURATED DEEP MOIST LAYERS AND STG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HOWEVER BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO OVER THREE INCHES POSSIBLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AFTER LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. TURNING THE WIND TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST WHILE A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND BEGIN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
A strong cold front will move in early Tuesday morning with strong north winds gusting over 25 KTS by late morning. This will help to keep temperatures closer to seasonal normals, generally in the low to mid 60s. The main concern at this point looks to be hail, given the aforementioned updrafts and cool mid/upper level temperatures associated with the upper level trough. The highest rainfall totals look to be across the eastern half of the forecast area. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s across the Big Country to near 50 across the Interstate 10 corridor. (Tuesday through Monday) Potent upper level low will close off over the Big Country near Abilene on Tuesday morning and then push quickly east.
326 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 High pressure ridge axis draped from the Great Lakes back into the Southern Plains this afternoon not moving very far through the overnight hours and light northeasterly flow will continue. Clouds will not be enough to keep the temperatures from dropping to below the freezing mark. However, the mid level trough will still be moving into and across the area after the sfc system pushes through and thinking is that flurries will be possible late Wed night through Thur.
Will the system dig and track further south? The 5 wave chart shows a big long wave trough over the central and eastern United States. Will the lower trop become cold enough for accumulating snow? The GFS sounding model would suggest a cold rain over most of southern Missouri, with little chances of snow accumulation.
231 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
There is a slight risk of severe storms tonight, with strong An upper trough will move into West Texas tonight, closing off it moves east across North Texas Tuesday. Tuesday, showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue in the Big Country, as moisture wraps around the upper low as it heads east across North Texas. Winds will increase into the 20 to 30 mph range midday, and could be on the higher end of that range in the mid/late afternoon. With strong cold advection and cloudy skies, went towards the cooler GFS MOS guidance for highs Tuesday. 04 (Tuesday night through Monday) The upper-level trough will continue to pull off to the east Tuesday night. Point soundings remain well above freezing through the lowest 3000 ft, keeping the risk for wintry precipitation at a minimum.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE INTENSIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEREFORE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WHICH WILL BRING A PERIODIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
HIRES MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS Q-G FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
As the storm system gains strength over the lower Mississippi Valley, we should see lowering an thickening clouds.
142 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND COOL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY.
A SUBTLE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND LOWER KEYS.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE. WITH MOST OF THE AREA WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM RACING THE SETTING SUN. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ERASED. NO HEADLINES WERE HOISTED ON THIS SHIFT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONCERNS. STRONG LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OVR EXTREME NERN ZONES AND GARRETT COUNTY UNTIL THE SELY UPSLOPE EASES OR MODIFICATION OF THE SOURCE OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AND COOL THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A COASTAL FRONT TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA THIS MORNING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WA ON TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS FOR SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF KGTF AND KLWT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
1143 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1051 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IS KEEPING THE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ITS LOCATION.