Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION OF THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO SHOOT AROUND OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAT INDICES APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AS THE HIGHEST APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUE DISPLAYED IS 104 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITS AROUND THE KS/CO BORDER.
732 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
A weak disturbance seen in radar data northwest of Bowling Green is pulling moisture northward that is running into an 850hPa warm front roughly along Interstate 64, resulting in an area of convergence and a band of steady light to moderate rain from Ohio County through Rough River Lake to LaRue County. KLVX is estimating around an inch and a half of rain has fallen in the heart of the band along the Breckinridge/Grayson county line.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. DRIER TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE GULF AND PRODUCES A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NAM CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER THAN NORMAL YET BELOW THE EURO AND GFS AND IS PREFERRED ON TEMPS THROUGH TNITE. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AROUND FLORIDA.
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS UPPER LOWS OVER E AND W CANADA REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE WESTERN TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN RENO TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR LOVELOCK AND HAWTHORNE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOLER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BECOME WEAK WESTERLY BEHIND. THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY DESPITE THE TROUGH PASSAGE. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE WARMER. AS SOON AS THE THE TROUGH DEPARTS. ANOTHER BROADER TROUGH WILL EDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHARPEN AS IT MOVES EAST.
610 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
1001 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ABOUT 45 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
An intense upper level low pressure system has been tracking steadily east of of the western High Plains today and is currently situated over the northeast tip of the Texas Panhandle at mid afternoon. The upper low is progged to move into far south central Kansas this evening and then accelerate to the northeast late tonight and Wednesday. A band of moderate to heavy snow associated with the mid level theta-e tongue has been wrapping around the northwest quadrant of the low across northwest into far west central Kansas. With that in mind, will cancel the high wind warning.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
358 PM PST TUE NOV 17 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND AHEAD FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES IN. AS HIGH CLOUDINESS ROTATES OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD EAST PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. IN THE COOLER AIR BROUGHT BY THE RECENTLY PASSING STORM SYSTEM SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHED THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS THE COOLER AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ON THE EDGE OF THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT CALDWELL.
328 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015 UPDATED A FEW OF THE WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT THE HIGH WIND WARNING STARTING A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN AND AROUND BIG TIMBER. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WHICH IS GENERATING RIDGING IN BETWEENTHE TWO SYSTEMS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. MOMENTUM INCREASING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEESIDE TROF INTENSIFYING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KIDA AND KLWT ALREADY 20MB. WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 10 TO 14Z. MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BUT THESE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUALLY BRING INCREASED PULSES OF WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
631 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK. WENT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO EASTERN PRESTON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S EAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
924 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST OK INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
548 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 GOING TO STAY WET TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL HELP ERODE OUR RAIN CHANCES A BIT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD KEEP ITS DEFORMATION REGION MOSTLY WEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED/WED NIGHT.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 417 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS WELL OFF THE COAST THIS HOUR. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL STATE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID AFTERNOON WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY MOVED EAST AND OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FOLLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND AHEAD FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES IN. AS HIGH CLOUDINESS ROTATES OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD EAST PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. IN THE COOLER AIR BROUGHT BY THE RECENTLY PASSING STORM SYSTEM SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHED THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS THE COOLER AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ON THE EDGE OF THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
925 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 Upper low currently centered near the OK/KS border this evening. Upper low progged to lift northeast overnight.
/ISSUED 417 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
Wx system moving through the Pac NW will mainly stay to our N due to the anticyclonic flow from the Ern Pac ridge. Can't rule out a chance of light precip across the far Nrn mtn zones into Wed with warm frontal precip today. a weakening cold front dropping south of the CA/OR border later tonite and Wed morning. Comp REF progs show relatively weak dBZ returns in our CWA as the higher returns remain outside of our CWA. NWly flow aloft from the Ern Pac ridge will continue over Norcal through the end of the work week before changes occur over the weekend. the lower level Nly flow is expected to keep fog mainly confined to the Srn Sac/Nrn SJV and Delta areas. Milder daytime temps are expected due to persistent NW flow from the Ern Pac ridge.
655 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WE SHOULD INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN LATE EVENING AND EARLY WED MORNING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE TRANSITION PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW. THAT WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN COOLER THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO PRODUCE SNOW AT THE SFC WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ An ongoing area of heavy rainfall across the eastern portion of the forecast area this afternoon will continue to translate eastward as an upper low pulls away from the area.
501 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
859 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
613 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FLORIDA WED-THU BUT AS THE MAIN VORT ENERGY TRAVERSES OFF TO THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST POPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THU AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND N CSTL SECTIONS TO MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. MOISTURE SUITABLE FOR INCREASING MARINE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS STRENGTH OF THE OVERLYING RIDGE SUBSIDES OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS.
345 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MAY HAVE MOVED TO THE SRN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DESPITE THE HIGHEST IMPACT BEING OVER RABBIT EARS PASS.
947 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL.
451 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MAY HAVE MOVED TO THE SRN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DESPITE THE HIGHEST IMPACT BEING OVER RABBIT EARS PASS.
935 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE KS/OK AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE OBS TO OUR W/SW INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MEMPHIS SEWD TOWARDS MONTGOMERY. 8 INCHES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS A STRONG N/S ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS UP MOISTURE STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF.
938 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE HOOSIER STATE IS GOING TO BE IN A PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS TAKING TURNS AFFECTING OUR WEATHER.
/ISSUED 334 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ THE LOW HAS STARTED PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE WINDS WILL START CALMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE SNOW SHOULD CEASE ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEAVES THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
OUR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN SHORTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE AREA THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE PRECIP TO THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
940 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
950 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
417 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LAST STORM SYSTEM. RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF TOMORROWS COOL FRONT. RIDGETOP WINDS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE POSITIVE-TILT UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST UTAH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE RIDGE A STRONG AND GENERALLY MOIST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWARD OVER THE EASTERN U. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING STRONG E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS SEEN IN 00Z TBW SOUNDING.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WEST OF THE 7 MIL BRIDGE WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS LIGHT OUT 60 NM. A FEW OF THESE HAVE PERCOLATED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AVAILABLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE ILLUSTRATING MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MID PART OF THE COLUMN.
COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER FULL SUN.
704 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
835 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKS TO BE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 68 49 64 / 30 100 50 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 68 50 62 / 10 100 100 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 67 49 62 / 10 100 90 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 66 50 61 / 20 100 100 20 NC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
538 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION BY END OF THIS FORECAST. /ISSUED 302 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ A DOMINANT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS AND CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA- KANSAS BORDER. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND IS GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS IN GRAHAM. BRECKENRIDGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
513 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS.
935 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A MILDER RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.
WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
637 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Water vapor imagery showing well defined upper level low over the panhandle of Oklahoma, with dry slot pushing into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. This low will continue to lift northeast into Kansas tonight. Will continue to see Moderate to heavy rainfall early this evening, mainly east of the highway 65 corridor. cannot rule out shower chances through at least the morning hours Wednesday as moisture wraps around the low, but models consistent in keeping this north of the area, so went with only 14 percent probabilities. We should finally see improvement as high pressure begins to build westward into the region which will continue into Wednesday night.
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ALREADY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS GUSTING IN THE LOW TO MID 40 MPH RANGE AND DO EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER US TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
947 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK. WENT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO EASTERN PRESTON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
608 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 324 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUN TODAY TEMPS WERE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND REMAIN THERE AS OF 21Z. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN LOUISIANA/CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
928 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
717 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL EJECT NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AS IT WEAKENS AND ALSO EJECTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM AND MOIST PUSH TO GET WRUNG OUT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST AND WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES. AND THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT COLD PUSH BEHIND IT WITH BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL INTO CANADA OVER JAMES BAY. JUST COOLER AIR.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST INCLEMENT WEATHER WAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AND WILL EVENTUALLY PULL TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST CWA. SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
1025 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK. WENT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO EASTERN PRESTON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS REGION. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
Otherwise, temps on track for upper 50s and lower 60s for mins thanks to mostly cloudy skies, which places it at or slightly above the higher MOS values. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Upper level ridge is amplifying over the Mid-Mississippi Valley as the trof over the western CONUS deepens. Some of the last vestiges of the Plains convection may make it into the area during the evening, but the air overhead is quite dry and the upper ridge should be providing some decent subsidence. Lows should be much warmer than this morning's with increasing mid and high clouds and light south-southeast flow.
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME. ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE AFTERNOON AND NT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A warm front has lifted north across the area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning.
In the lower levels, there is a weak/broad low level jet and gradual theta-e advection. The deep moisture plume will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
254 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 IN HURRY UP AND WAIT MODE AS UPPER LOW EVER SO SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U. CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF ANY RAIN THREAT BUT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND MORE AND MORE SHORT WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST.
256 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. H5 RIDGING SHOULD OCCUPY MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z.
138 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US THE COLDEST NIGHT WE ARE LIKELY SO SEE UNTIL OCTOBER.
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY.