Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS DRIER AIR MASS LED TO MCUH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN WHAT I HAD FORECASTED FROM YETERDAY. IT WAS SO COOL AT DOUGLAS AIRPORT THAT THE LOW OF 59 DEGREES WAS ONE DEGREE OFF THE DAILY RECORD. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE INTL BORDER. LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD SHIFT INLAND AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND TROUGH SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO NATURE COAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADVANCE OF LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND BAKER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OUT OF NEVADA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST TRACKS NE TOWARD THE PACNW. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 4-8 DEGREES IN SW IDAHO AND 8-12 DEGREES IN SE OREGON. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND BAKER VALLEY.
556 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING WEST INTO ARIZONA.
721 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND.
1040 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 AFTER A FOGGY START IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER AND SOME CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EAST OF I-65. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF IN GA WILL MOVE WEST INTO AL AND TN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON FRI WITH SCT CU FORMING OVER THE RIDGES. HAVE A 20% POP FOR JUST SHOWERS ON THE RIDGES. MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS A SUCCESSION OF TROUGHS MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTBY AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION IN TAFS FOR NOW AS THINK RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. DO EXPECT A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SEABREEZE HELPS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMER GUIDANCE THAT HAS DONE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY RETREATS WESTWARD.
718 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE. INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY SPELLS FOR ANOTHER SEASONAL AUGUST AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAK AT 10 MPH SUSTAINED.
MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALL COMBINE TO GENERATE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL FL TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST UP TO 60-70 PERCENT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS 1-2C COOLER AT 500MB AND WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER AND SOME CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EAST OF I-65. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
BUT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES A CAP MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
100 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
A DECREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
624 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
939 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY HOT WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
1006 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
1254 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
1048 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
952 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST TEXAS. AND ATTENDANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS SNAKES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN ABNORMALLY FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MID AUGUST IS EVIDENT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DETAILS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TO 850 TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR BUOY 41010 SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS.
1034 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA.
948 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
646 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS SUPPRESSED THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTH FL/FL STRAITS THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE COOLED OFF SLIGHTLY OVER YESTERDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS TROUGH COMES IN. ALSO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (80%) IN THIS AREA WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY UP THIS WAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST.
The eastern CONUS trough will remain in place today. Embedded within the trough this morning is a +PV anomaly currently diving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Also noted on the morning analysis was a trough axis essentially north to south across the GA/AL line. The morning sounding depicted dry air both in the lowest 100mb and above 800mb, seen clearly on WV imagery. This moisture increase coupled with the surface front and trof, as well as the upper-level wave could force a few showers and possibly even an isolated thunderstorm east of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers late this afternoon.
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. TODAY SHOULD BE HOT AND DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS BACK UP. RIDGE STARTS TO BREAKDOWN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INLAND OVER WESTERN OREGON. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
1013 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT INTO THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER TO AREA FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
937 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY KEEPING THE NEXT BOUNDARY LOCKED UP TO THE NORTH. ENERGY MIGRATING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH.
1012 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
913 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
443 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015 UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER SECTION STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY HOT WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A DECREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR EAST SHIFTS WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR EAST WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY WESTWARD AND INTO ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
636 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT.
1040 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
1040 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW NEAR GROUND AND ALOFT.
1259 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 67 90 69 / 10 0 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 64 88 67 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 58 86 63 / 10 0 10 10.
1053 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DRY AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME CONVECTION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW, NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1008 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST.
1221 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS IN THE MID-WEST. REMAINDER OF REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND FRONT WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD EASTWARD. H500 RIDGE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
625 AM PDT Tue May 5 2015 Dry weather will continue through early Wednesday before a cooler and more unsettled pattern begins later Wednesday into the end of the work week, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the mountains.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. WITH THE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME AREAS OF INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA.
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 80S ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE E/SE THANKS TO THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC. EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH ELONGATED RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS IS ALSO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS INTO WESTERN CUBA. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
1000 AM PDT Tue May 5 2015 Dry weather will continue through early Wednesday before a cooler and more unsettled pattern begins later Wednesday into the end of the work week, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the mountains.
1225 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THEN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE. AND ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS FROM THE SW U. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS.
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
703 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY.
1214 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. NICE TO SEE THE SPRING VEGETATION STARTING TO CONSUME THE GROUND WATER IN THE LOWLANDS. UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL. BEST FORCING WILL BE FROM THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES IN THE HIGHLANDS OF THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE BULK OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S. SO THIS WILL RAISE THE LOWER LIMIT ON THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA.
WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. AS ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS QUITE NICE WITH A HUGE PRECIPITATION LIMITING RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN U. IT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE EASTERN TENNESSEE BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINANT OUR WEATHER TODAY. CURRENTLY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER SRN PA DIPS SOUTH. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SINK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z WED AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MOVEMENT WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A BUILDING RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT.
420 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015 ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SLOW COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND A CONTINUED DEEPER MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
1146 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIFTING NORTH TODAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS INDUCED AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE NE/NNE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD.
Will extend portions of the Flash Flood Watch until 05/15Z as backing flow ahead of a potent ua trough has resulted in the continuation of convection over northern portions of the forecast area. Think the convection will begin to wane around 05/13Z or 05/14Z as the low level jet decreases.
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. AS ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA.
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS THE CWA WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE WAS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER AL/MS BORDER INTO THE GULF. SO CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
934 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THEN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE OUTER STRAITS INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A SPLINTERED LOW LEVEL TROUGH (SURFACE-850 MB) EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL MIGRATE NORTHWESTWARD. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO UPDATE THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FOR AT LEAST THE LOWER KEYS AND MAINTAIN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE.
357 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES SLOWLY BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. WAA/RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE ON SATURDAY AS WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH WELL TO THE EAST RAISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM SHELBY TO HARLEM. WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the Rockies and Plains through the short term as an upper level low decimates portions of the eastern United States. A dome of high pressure will slide east of the area this afternoon with a trough of low pressure developing across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today are progged to range from the lower 30s across north central Kansas to around 50 degrees along the KS/CO border. Precip chances will remain absent across western Kansas early in the period as short range models indicate upper level ridging slowly transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE E/NE, WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE'WD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
FOG AND FREEZING FOG ALSO PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG SHOWING UP. LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NATIONS MID SECTION. EMBEDDED IN THE FEATURE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
N-NW WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A FINAL SURGE OF THE HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. BRINGING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.