Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
340 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper ridge over the central CONUS has led to continued above normal temperatures over much of the region today under a sunny sky. At KMBG, temperatures have struggled to rise into the lower 80s and visibilities have been steady in the 1. The light winds that are over the area are being caused by a broad area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies in WY/CO and the dissipating cold front stretches from northeast to southwest across SD and to the main low.
119 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Aviation Weakening low pressure, formally Irma, will approach from the south today and tonight and bring some cloudiness and perhaps a few showers to southern lower Michigan. Otherwise high pressure and above normal temperatures will dominate our weather through the coming weekend. Will maintain low chance pops today and tonight for a few showers south of a MKG to MOP line as guidance depicts a narrow band or two of mid level fgen related forcing pivoting nwwd around north side of approaching upper low. The upper low moves to near IND by 00Z tonight then heads ene from there, reaching PA on Thursday.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Warmer and drier through the period.
338 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Relatively warm/hot and dry conditions will continue for the rest of this week across Oklahoma and north Texas, ahead of a large and slowly-moving low pressure system.
Column moisture has increased markedly since yesterday in the sounding and some convergence underway along a rather elongated trough axis extending southward from Irma low that was over the lower Ohio Valley. Overnight temperatures will be several degrees warmer than past few nights followed by warmer daytime temperatures firmly in the mid to upper 80s next few days.
331 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The area will remain under the upper ridge for the next few days as the axis slides east.
On Thu, an upper low is forecast to move from srn portions of CA, acrs srn NV and into srn UT. Temps on Thu will be above average again, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the plains, but a little cooler in northern portions of El Paso county, and in the 70s in the high valley locations.
238 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Upper level analysis shows upstream trof over western Canada, an upper low off the southern California coast, and weak ridging over the northern high plains. Water vapor imagery shows ample high and mid level moisture streaming into the Pacific Northwest and Upper Rockies associated with and ahead of the approaching upper level trof. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends from northern Minnesota through northern South Dakota into southeastern Montana, with a more pronounced cold front extending from southeastern Saskatchewan through central and southwestern Montana. Beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, moist and colder air will move into the region as the upper trof approaches and swings through the northern plains.
250 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The first cold front of the Fall season will bring gusty winds Thursday along with another chance for showers, or even a few storms north of Highway 50.
1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Approaching upper ridge will keep VFR conditions intact with mostly light southerly winds through Thursday.
125 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A warm front lifts over the region this morning as the remnants of Irma lift northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The upper level trough associated with Irma tracks across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
For tonight, a clear sky and light wind is expected over the area with high pressure in place. The high pressure will slide off to the east on Thursday with the pressure gradient increasing behind the departing high and in advance of low pressure developing in the high plains. An upper level ridge will begin to build into the area as well, so there should be a warming trend beginning on Thursday with most areas seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Cold front and scattered rain showers have finally arrived in NE Montana. The colder air mass and low pressure system from the Canadian Rockies will continue to push this change in the weather pattern through our region through the rest of this week.
/Issued 745 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ Remains of Irma were located in the vicinity of West TN this morning as it was part of a broad trough over the lower MS Valley. The better moisture associated with the weakening cyclone should remain over northwest GA. Temperatures should recover some today and will be warmer on Thursday.
A strong upper-deck ridge, that extends from Baja CA almost of the Wrn Dakotas, will force the remnants NE as it gets forced in a general ely manner across the Great Plains by a strong, positively-tilted upper-deck trof that'll dig almost due S from the Pacific NW to the Great Basin from today thru Fri. The upper deck ridge should deamplify as it approaches, then crosses, the Great Lakes Thu afternoon. The ridge, though deamplifying, will keep us high & dry throughout these periods. upper- deck wave & its attendant cold front. With broad & STRONG mid- upper deck ridging nearly covering the southeastern half of the U. This would cause the attendant SE- moving cold front, progged to enter NW KS Sat afternoon, to begin decelerating as it ventures further into KS Sat Night.
106 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A blocking upper ridge of high pressure keeps New England under a mostly clear sky with warm temperatures for the next few days. 7 am Update: Fog has formed in the CT River Valley otherwise clear skies elsewhere under the ridge of high pressure. Previous Discussion: The blocking surface and upper ridge of high pressure remains over the region so another mostly sunny and warm day. Some high clouds may spill through the ridge at times over southern areas. Tonight will be mostly clear but mid/high clouds well in advance of the remnants of IRMA over the midwest will spill through the upper ridge axis over the region later tonight.
326 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Tonight through Tomorrow: A look at satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a low pressure system spinning over the Ohio River Valley with evidence of a broad trough extending south towards the TX Gulf Coast. An upper-level ridge was evident over the Rocky Mountains. At the surface, a cool and moist airmass in the wake of the low has been slow to erode today. A few showers have been able to redevelop farther south where a slight amount of elevated instability and lift exist along the trough axis. The trough axis will remain stretched across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow, and daytime heating could lead to rain showers along that axis.
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Broad low pressure system as the remnants of Irma continue to bring cloud cover and light to moderate rains to the region this afternoon.
312 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Isolated storms may form near the lee trough over the central High Plains this evening, but should stay northwest of central Kansas.
Return southerly flow will bring warmer air and just a tad bit more moisture back into the region, making it just slightly more muggy for those with outdoor activities. Upper level ridging across the eastern United States will result in above normal temperatures for the latter part of the week and on into the weekend.
354 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will remain in control across the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. A warm front will lift north through the region Tuesday afternoon.
1246 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest MN, with frontal boundary extending west-southwest across the Central Plains to another area of low pressure over south central WY. Upper level analysis continues to show trough along the west coast, with active southwest flow from the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains. Low pressure along the boundary will drift northeast into the BH area late this afternoon and evening, with drier air moving into northeast WY to the southwest of the low. The best chances for showers and storms and the risk for some strong to severe storms will generally be near and to the north and east of the low from the Black Hills to northwest and central SD during the late afternoon and evening hours.
334 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure ridge settled over the southeastern quadrant of the country will maintain rather warm and humid conditions for the next few days with little more than just a temperature forecast.
The main risks with this high-based activity would be damaging downburst winds and hail up to around golf ball size. Tuesday will be more dynamic as the upper low currently progressing eastward across southern California makes steady headway through the Desert Southwest.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An approaching short wave trough to the West will bring brisk Southerly winds to the region today. The trough will not be progressive tonight which will keep the thunderstorm activity restricted to the West for the most part and should not allow the activity to move into Central Kansas. Tuesday, the upper level trough will slowly come into phase with the surface through and will begin to push the dry line to the East.
330 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Satellite and radar pictures are showing a little bit of convection in the high mountains. I will go with minimal pops over the high mountains this evening. For temperatures, Tuesday highs look to be some 3-6 C cooler than this afternoon's highs. Each of the models show an initial short wave trough moving over the state tomorrow night which will help keep afternoon shower activity going through the evening hours.
504 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Low pressure will exit across the maritimes tonight through Tuesday.
/ISSUED 1037 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017/ Today is shaping up to be another quiet day weather-wise with temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Upper level ridge over much of Texas should suppress convection over the area so only expecting flat cumulus development today.
216 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Hydro High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then a warm front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday.
However, high pressure will pass over the region Tuesday with sunshine and moderating temperatures. It will mark a transition to a drier and much warmer weather pattern. Lows will be mostly in the low to mid 50s.
254 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Surface analysis reveals persistent high pressure over Tennessee that is starting to push off to the east. Meanwhile, a northwest to southeast oriented warm front associated with an area of weak low pressure over southern Minnesota is starting to lift northward into southern Indiana and Ohio. In addition to the warmer temperatures, low level moisture has began to advect into the region, with dewpoints already in the low 60s across southwestern portions of the CWA. Upper level ridge axis will move over the region tonight and tomorrow. Very warm air associated with the upper level ridge will make for a hot and sunny day tomorrow, with a few areas (like SDF) getting close to record highs for the day.
250 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will build over the East Coast through mid week, bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather. As a weak high pressure at the surface shifts offshore early, expect sunny skies and continued warming temperatures. The GFS suggests that a persistent upper level trough over the Rockies/Inter-Mountain west will become progressive over the weekend, with strengthening SW flow aloft over the Carolinas and a cold front approaching from the west early Monday. This scenario would argue for cooler temperatures and increased chances for convection.
High pressure along the US eastern seaboard will center along the Mid-Atlc coast of the Carolinas during the next 24H. Proximity of the high to the FL peninsula will bring fair weather conds with onshore winds largely associated with the afternoon sea breeze diminishing late this evening. Deep lyr anticyclone over the Carolina coast early in the period will pushing a weak H85-H50 short wave trough over south FL into the FL Straits where it will fill in and dissipate. Cannot rule out isold shra activity over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region given the increasing E/SE flow thru the H100-H70 lyr coupled with the higher moisture profile, but impact will be limited with QPF aob 0.
High pressure at the surface to keep West Coast seabreeze in coastal areas then evening easterly surges to sweep through the area. Upper trough sinks SE ward as upper ridging nudges into the region from the Southeastern Gulf. Western Atlantic high pressure ridge axis starts to get reinforced with increased easterly low level flow. Mid/upper level ridging will build over the southeast U.
137 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will build over the East Coast through mid week, bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather. Visible satellite data indicated scattered cumulus developing just to our NW along the ridges into the foothills of southwestern VA and northwestern NC. Highs are on target to reach the lower to mid 80s. On Tuesday the upper ridge moves more directly over the southeast. This will continue to bring temperatures up with highs in the low to upper 80s, once again NE to SW. The GFS suggests that a persistent upper level trough over the Rockies/Inter-Mountain west will become progressive over the weekend, with strengthening SW flow aloft over the Carolinas and a cold front approaching from the west early Monday. This scenario would argue for cooler temperatures and increased chances for convection.
Showers will then increase again from the northwest after midnight as a large upper level low along the British Columbia coast approaches. The low will be over Vancouver Island by early Tuesday and spread increasing precipitation into the entire area through Tuesday.
Strong and gusty south winds around 30 mph will likely develop Tuesday morning over most areas as an upper level trough begins to move out of the desert southwest. Winds will also pick up across the region today as high pressure shifts east and lee trough deepens further west.
132 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then a warm front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday.
Upper level ridging will continue through the period.
220 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure moves over the area tonight, then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
Tuesday looks to be the coldest and wettest day as a deep low pressure system spreads a band of rain and mountain snow into the region.
140 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure rebuilds across the region today and tonight. Mid morning MSAS showing the cold front just sw of the fa. High pressure to the nw progged to nudge the boundary farther sw into the mts by late afternoon. Meanwhile, ridge aloft shifts E from Gulf Coast toward the SE coast. and generally in the low to mid 60s Thu morning. A weak cold front from the N is fcst by the models to settle into the region S. VFR (SKC) conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure settles over the area tonight then off the coast Tuesday.
201 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. With the upper level ridge in place expect above normal temperatures for the short term. Upper ridge over the region combined with southerly low level flow will lead to very warm temperatures at the beginning of the period.
Tuesday will be a little cooler as the broad upper level trough begins to move eastward. Models show an area of midlevel subsidence associated with a weak ridge aloft. This will be short-lived however as the upper level trough currently over the southwestern Great Basin region will accelerate and lift northeast towards the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
307 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Southerly flow continues over northeast Kansas tonight ahead of a deepening longwave trough moving towards the central plains. Temperatures look to warm up tomorrow into the low 80s, with dewpoint temperatures reaching into the mid-60s during the afternoon. While on the low side, a tornado threat cannot be ruled out with low level bulk shear values near 20 knots.
300 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Southerly flow between departing high pressure and approaching low pressure will persist through the period.
135 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Dry and warm conditions are expected for the first half of the week as high pressure strengthens. An upper ridge and surface warm front will progress slowly ewd today. Dry weather is expected Wed/Wed night under ridging and capping warmth aloft. Upper ridging is progged to break down and shift S/E by late in the week as a broad wrn CONUS trough begins its track ewd. VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with high pressure at the surface and aloft. Some cumulus and mid clouds should show up after 12Z over the approaching upper ridge.
340 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. A warm front will begin to progress to the northeast across the area tonight as a mid level ridge builds east into the Ohio Valley. Lows will rage from near 50 across east central Ohio to the lower 60s far west and southwest. Mid level ridge will continue to build into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as warm front departs to our northeast. It will be warm with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
524 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. High amplitude upper ridge over the Midwest will move east. High pressure will remain over the Southeastern States. A surface cold front will remain to our north across North Carolina tonight but will slip farther southward by morning.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a ridge axis running from Mexico into Colorado and then turning east into the central US Plains. A large trough is opposite of this stretching down the west coast of north america from British Columbia to California. This trough is quickly breaking in half with a with a closed low over SoCal and another developing over BC. The BC trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest. A meso-ridge will develop in response over the eastern Montana. While a broad/upper closed low pattern looks to persist across the western CONUS leading to predominantly cooler and cloudy conditions with occasional showers across portions of northeast Montana, steady and persistent heavy rainfall looks to remain south.
149 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Low pressure will pull away from the region today with breezy conditions and drier air filtering into the North Country.
126 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure from eastern Canada will build south across the eastern Great Lakes today. A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move north across the area on Tuesday bringing summer type temperatures for mid week.
651 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. High pressure will remain over the Southeastern states and skies will be clear through the night. A surface cold front will remain across North Carolina tonight but will slip farther southward by morning, although there will be no appreciable impact to the area's weather.
On Tuesday, an upper level trough across the southwest states will slowly move toward the Southern Plains. Tuesday night, a potent upper level trough will move through the northern half of Texas. Height falls, and cooling aloft will combine with a Pacific cold front moving east into plentiful low level moisture to result in a line of thunderstorms developing to our west during the mid to late evening hours.
310 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 The area stills remains under high pressure this afternoon with the high forecast to continue to drift eastward. Our next weather maker is an upper level trough currently making its way across southern California. This trough is expected to continue to dig into the southern Rockies during the day on Tuesday.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Confidence: Medium Warm front now retreating north. The GFS/Euro both are tending to refire the convection over northeast areas this evening between 00 and 04z as the low level jet increases into the boundary. /Tuesday night through Monday/ Tuesday night the upper trough finally begins to lift out of the Plains which then pushes the surface features northeast.
250 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. An anomalously deep upper level low off the New England coast will continue to move slowly to the northeast. High amplitude upper ridge over the Midwest will move east. High pressure over the Southeastern states and air mass dry. Surface cold front will remain to our north across North Carolina tonight but will slip farther southward by morning.
1243 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Little changes to the forecast for today with rain chances spreading into the area overnight as warm front lifts into the region. Low pressure to organize over the central high plains propagating NE into SD overnight. Rain should lift north and east with the low Tuesday evening with most areas dry by midnight. Not a great deal of cooling in the wake of the low passage so temperatures will continue on the mild side. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs dipping below average.
140 PM PDT Mon May 15 2017 An unseasonably cool upper trough will persist across the West Coast through the middle of the week bringing below normal temperatures and extensive night through morning low clouds and patchy drizzle. Upper low moving through the eastern half of the forecast area combined with a deep marine lyr and strong onshore flow is spawning showers across the LA/Ventura valleys (mainly near the foothills) and mtns. Showers should taper off this evening as the low exits to the east. Tuesday we're in between troughs with slight warming expected, but still enough low lvl moisture and onshore flow to keep skies at least partly cloudy in most areas.
1256 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An upper level RIDGE dominated the central CONUS early this morning. Temps in most areas were in the lower 60s and upper 50s. The axis of the upper level RIDGE will slowly translate east thru tonight, and will result in the beginnings of SW flow aloft by late tonight, with the absence of any disturbances affecting our region continuing. The surface stationary front just to our northeast is anticipated to continue in its current position thru about midday before beginning to advance away as a warm front in response to flow aloft becoming more southwesterly. Elevated convection may spread into northeast and central MO late Tuesday night ahead of a negatively tilted upper level trough moving through the central Plains. Upper level divergence will be increasing over this area ahead of the upper level trough.
213 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Cool outflow from the thunderstorms that passed through last night, cloud cover through the morning and low level moisture have all combined to keep temperatures cooler than the potential over much of the region today. Low pressure along a sfc boundary will drift northeastward into nern WY area late this afternoon and evening, with drier air moving into northeast WY to the southwest of the low. The best chances for showers and storms and the risk for some strong to severe storms will generally be near and to the north and east of the low over northeastern Wyoming and northwest and central SD during the evening hours.
122 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure through Tuesday with increasing temperatures. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through this time period. Light winds and clear skies will make for chilly night with temperatures dropping into the 30s in the northern mountains to the warmer 50s in the west.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through tonight. After highs around 90 degrees, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.