Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ACROSS WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES BACK INTO MAINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND.
346 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. WITH A TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST. WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST TO NEAR HWY 83.
233 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
648 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
115 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
AND ALSO SEEING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY. BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED. MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY 12Z SAT. THE SOUTH WILL TAP INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
255 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT EXISTS THAT STATE.
340 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IT'S HOLD OVER THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
401 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
328 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A LOW FREEZING LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS WHICH SHOWED MOST SITES BEING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
351 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
143 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE THE LOW DEPART THE COMMONWEALTH AND HEAD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WHICH HOLDS ITS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY RELATED/NEARBY POPS CONTAINED AROUND THE RIM OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH TIME.
RATZER 234 PM CDT AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEED CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WARMS CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. THE HIGHEST PROB APPEARS TO BE MON AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RATZER 200 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT BROAD SCALE WINDS.
625 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY SPREADING SHOWERS. LOWEST 100MB WILL DRY OUT LEAVING CUMULUS FORMATION FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE DOMINATING FACTOR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. WITH A WARMING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING OVER THIS PERIOD.
/ISSUED 933 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/ MOST TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST. THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SLIGHTLY WARMS.
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR ON LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE OPENING CLOSED LOW DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. BUT NOT TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH/S POSITION TO THE WEST.
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. GOOD DIURNAL PLUS RISES LATER TODAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION ASSURED AS SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGING SFC/ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS LATER TODAY. AGAIN SLIGHT WARMER NUDGE TO MIN TEMPS IN ABSENCE OF THIS AM 925MB THERMAL TROF.
ALONG WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AND EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE PRIMARILYEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVER THE RIDGES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND 5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT 15C. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL THINGS BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
315 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A VERY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE A LATE SPRING SEASON COOL SNAP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RATZER 234 PM CDT AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEED CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WARMS CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. THE HIGHEST PROB APPEARS TO BE MON AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THERE WAS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TOGETHER WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME AT THE LOW LEVELS. THOUGH SOME PLACES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE MAY DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AIR.
521 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF A COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. WITH WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN DIURNAL CUMULUS -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 ISSUED AT 330 CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER NORTHWEST KS NEAR SE-MOVING DECELERATING SURFACE TROF. A RIDGE IS PUNCHING NE FROM AZ & NM TO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN ALMOST DUE NORTH TO HUDSON BAY WITH BY FAR THE SHARPEST AMPLITUDE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO HUDSON BAY. WEAK SE LOWER DECK FLOW HAS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF KS WHICH HAS HELPED TO CAUSE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.
DRY AND SUNNY TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION. SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. REFLECTING THE DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH. AND LOWER LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS RAPIDLY AHEAD OF TROUGH. WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY WITH ONLY CLOUDS MARKING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW HAD PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTH GA AND INTO CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 41 ONE OF THE QUIETEST LONG TERMS ON TAP IN A LONG TIME WITH REGIME DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DAMPEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THICKNESSES AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING BY SATURDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LAG THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER TEMPS SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S APPEARS LIKELY.
/ISSUED 826 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH. WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS. /ISSUED 245 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015/ DRIER AIR ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA ON GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT TIMES, AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEEKEND, IN GREAT CONTRAST TO THE RECORD HEAT WHICH WAS OBSERVED LAST WEEKEND.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE UPPER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WEAKENS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GETS SHEARED APART. BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT.
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
148 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN NORTHWEST INDIANA TO THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHWEST OHIO. OTRWS SFC RIDGING TO BLD QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY W/SUBSTANTIAL LL THERMAL MODERATION XPCD OUTSIDE LAKE SHADOW. MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN WAKE OF TODAY'S UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVES SEWD. WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS CSV AROUND OR AFTER 02/08Z PER BUILDING SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT I WOULD LOOK FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED A LITTLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 MAY WILL KICK OFF ON THE WARM AND QUIET SIDE AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS SWAY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. A DECENT PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES.
THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS BEING INITIATED BY TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE AND WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY UNDERNEATH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH AND COLORADO.
/ISSUED 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/ Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.
254 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY SPREADING SHOWERS. LOWEST 100MB WILL DRY OUT LEAVING CUMULUS FORMATION FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE DOMINATING FACTOR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. WITH A WARMING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING OVER THIS PERIOD.
351 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD. AT THE LOW-LEVELS THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NY FROM NRN PA. SOME LIGHT SHRA WERE FOUND CLOSE TO SE LUZERNE COUNTY EARLIER ARND MIDNIGHT BUT NOW HAVE ADVECTED WESTWARD NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH THE DAY/S HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV LOBE FROM THE UPPER LAKES AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS E WELL S OF THE REGION. FRIDAY A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT AND UL SHORT WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AND BE IN CONTROL FROM SAT NIGHT TO SUN NGT.
431 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND BRING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. BUT WIND WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
355 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 352 AM CDT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
629 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
112 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
649 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. GOOD DIURNAL PLUS RISES LATER TODAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION ASSURED AS SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGING SFC/ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS LATER TODAY. AGAIN SLIGHT WARMER NUDGE TO MIN TEMPS IN ABSENCE OF THIS AM 925MB THERMAL TROF.
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FARTHER SOUTH. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING EARLIER EAST OF I-65 WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS SPINNING OVER KENTUCKY.
WATCHING SEVERAL WEAK SHOWERS WEST RIVER ALONG THE TROF AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN +16 AND +22C.
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT I WOULD LOOK FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED A LITTLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING. 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 20S C WEST TO UPPER TEENS C EAST.
EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN ALOFT ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE EASTERN CO PLAINS WILL HELP MIX OUT THE POST FRONTAL STABLE AIRMASS FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR ROANOKE. THE SLOW-EVOLVING DEFORMATION FIELD AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT SEEMS TO BE DRIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS ALLOWING FOR MUCH MORE MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO METRO PITTSBURGH AT THIS HOUR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE RIDGES.
443 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO MID MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO CENTRAL GULF COAST. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT EAST WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. ALL FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWEST 1 KM FAIRLY DRY EAST OF I-35.
311 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
High pressure is currently over the region bringing clear and quiet weather for the Missouri Ozarks.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
139 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO OH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS SOUTHEAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WANE FRI EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING AWAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND TO PROVIDE NICE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST MAINTAINING THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD EASTWARDS.
257 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OUR REGION BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WITH UPPER RIDGING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS N-S ORIENTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER AS A BROAD RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THEN ABOUT THE SAME EAST AND 1-2 DEGREE WARMER ON SATURDAY (BASED ON 850MB AND 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS). BUT STILL GENERALLY WEAK AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL NEED TIME TO DEEPEN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TRI AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK. THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.