Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1255 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Dry weather will give way to increasing potential for showers and storms with the approach of a cold front on Sunday. Given the effects of temperature-moderating nwly flow on the flank of a wrn-Atlantic trough, readings should remain at or just below seasonal average. Rain chances will escalate Sat night and Sun with the approach of an upper trough/cold front. Model ensembles continue to indicate general broad troughing persisting across much of the ern CONUS through the period, as a ridge builds across the wrn/central CONUS.
High pressure ridging and very weak flow aloft continued at midday, with 12z NAM/GFS both initializing 2-3 mph winds at 500 mb this morning, with heights near 594 dm. Surface observations are running about 4-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and the progressive warming trend continues. With some extra clouds and limited convective potential Sunday afternoon, temperatures are projected to ease cooler 1-2 degrees.
As an upper trough continues to advance east into the Northern Plains, stronger flow aloft continues to encroach on the forecast area. The ridge upstream slowly amplifies through the start of the work week, becoming the main headline as it features 500mb heights nearing 2 standard deviations above climo and 700mb temperatures around +16C.
Hot temperatures are expected over the next few days with highs generally in the low 90s. Look for highs to reach the low 90s on an afternoon basis through the upcoming work week, with lows generally in the 70s. At this time no precipitation chances are reflected in the TAFs given the low potential.
350 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure over the North Country will bring a return of more summer like conditions today with ample sunshine and temperatures rising to around 80 or slightly above.
/issued 926 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ Dry and stable conditions expected through the remainder of the night as surface and upper-level high pressure prevail areawide.
200 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 GOES-East showing a mid-level trough pushing eastward across the eastern Dakota/western MN. At the surface, a weak surface cold front extended from western lake Superior through southwest MN. Radar was showing scattered convection along the frontal boundary/ahead of the mid-level trough. The trough and surface front continues to push southeast into our area this morning and through the day, exiting by late this afternoon. but could see a pocket or two of some heavier amount potential given the high precipitable water values/humid airmass in place. Enjoy the drier air Sunday as dew points start the creep upwards again Sunday night as a warm front pushes northward out of the Plains. Upper level ridge amplification across the Intermountain West and Plains will keep us in northwest flow aloft during this period.
A training weak cold front is analyzed from near Pine Ridge to Alliance to Sidney. The weak cold front will continue southeast overnight and be located across northern KS by Saturday afternoon. Weak CAA will filter across the area, and highs should generally hold in the lower to mid 90s (still hot). Sunday the front lifts northward as a warm front.
This signal remains present today and the region of overlap between the warmer temps / higher afternoon dewpoints will exceed heat advisory criteria.
The cold front will pass through the region late tonight into early Saturday morning, which will help usher in drier air behind it.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA. The mid-level ridge will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while temperatures prevail at near normal levels for this time of year.
Dew point temperatures will surge into the lower to middle 70s across the entire CWA on Saturday. Combined with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, heat index values will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s, with the highest values across southeast Missouri. This will initiate scattered thunderstorms across the entire forecast area, with the highest coverage during the heat of the day. Outside of the storms, heat index values will reach 100 to 107 degrees with the highest values again over southeast Missouri.
Highs should top out 1-2F warmer than yesterday, putting heat index values near, or into the triple digits this afternoon. A cold front's boundary drops out of the northwesterlies aloft on Sunday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly retrograde westward across TX on Saturday, while the associated upper level ridge axis noses eastward across the Mississippi Valley and southeastern states. The upper level ridge axis should continue to build eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and across much of the Deep South on Sunday. Heat and humidity will otherwise remain the rule outside of convection with high temperatures reaching into the lower to mid 90s and heat indices ranging between 102 and 107 degrees, and locally over 108.
358 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 A cold front pushing across the region today, will bring much drier air into the CWA. Surface dew points should drop 15-20 degrees from the mid 60s, to the upper 30s to the lower 50s. Of note, high temps could be slightly cooler due to the abundance of smoke in the atmosphere. Mixing winds today appear on the lower side as half km winds generally below 15 knots.
The low clouds in the Hill Country were developing and advancing slowly to the north and northwest towards San Saba and Junction. With upper level high pressure in control, look for highs ranging from 97 to 100 degrees today.
By Sunday, a mid-level ridging will also shift over the Gulf states, further reducing convection across the forecast area and limiting rain chances to 30-40 percent for North Georgia, and limited chances south of I-85. The upper ridge to our west continues to push east into the southern states. The upper trough will continue to deepen into portions of the mid Atlantic coast.
Otherwise, light/calm winds will prevail with temperatures bottoming out in the low/mid 60s northward, mid/upr 60s southward. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 91 73 91 / 10 10 40 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 93 73 91 / 10 10 40 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 92 73 89 / 10 10 30 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 90 70 87 / 10 20 40 30 70.
1100 PM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021 The latest water vapor images and RAP model 500-mb height analysis showed an upper high anchored over the Southwest U.
A dry air mass and a ridge of high pressure will be over the forecast area today. Highs will be near 90 in most areas with cooler temperatures near the Canadian border. The upper ridge builds into the area starting on Sunday which will bring the heat back into the region.
Of course the primary factor supporting severe weather will be high degree of instability given highs near 90F, surface dewpoints in the low to perhaps mid 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 6 C/km. 0-6km bulk shear values approach 30 kts with a decent amount of flow/shear in the lowest 3 km. Better chances late Wed into Thu with more support among various solutions for upper jet strengthening New England longwave trough and sending another cool front through the region.
Aloft, a mid-upper ridge will establish itself from the central plains, through the southern plains and into the GoM. Troughing still resides across the far Northeast and across the western Atlantic which keeps northwest flow in place today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift northeast with lower pressure across the plains and midwest. Highs will quickly reach the lower 90's across much of the valley today with low to mid 80's elsewhere.
The easiest part to decipher is our typical cu firing over the high terrain in the Davis Mtns and adjacent high plains south of I-10. Tomorrow will see a slow rise in heights areawide, leading to a degree or two warmer everywhere compared to today.
405 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure over the North Country will bring a return of more summer like conditions today with ample sunshine and temperatures rising to around 80 or slightly above.
Tonight through Sunday night: A flat upper ridge will build over the region through the weekend bringing a warming trend.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) A broad upper ridge is over most of the southern part of the country with an upper low over Arizona and New Mexico. Storm coverage will likely be less than yesterday due to the upper level low moving west of the area.
The upper Keys and portions of the lower Keys have been the big winners thus far in term of rainfall amounts. 5 inches in the lower and upper Keys. The aforementioned area of low pressure looks to traverse to the southwest across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
747 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Dry weather will give way to increasing potential for showers and storms with the approach of a cold front through Sunday. Rain chances will escalate Sat night and Sun with the approach of an upper trough/cold front. Hi res models have hinted in recent runs of weakening to the trough and spotty coverage but with southern cell development holding a bit more moisture and less flow aloft further south, a minor flooding threat is possible.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: A dry air mass and a ridge of high pressure will be over the forecast area today. Highs will be near 90 in most areas with cooler temperatures near the Canadian border. The upper ridge builds into the area starting on Sunday which will bring the heat back into the region.
A cold front pushing across the region today, will bring much drier air into the CWA. Surface dew points should drop 15-20 degrees from the mid 60s, to the upper 30s to the lower 50s. Of note, high temps could be slightly cooler due to the abundance of smoke in the atmosphere. Mixing winds today appear on the lower side as half km winds generally below 15 knots.
A weak area of low pressure (aka Invest 90L) off of the Southeast coast will veer winds NE north of the Cape today and increase winds to around 15kts, while other zones remain around 10kts.
656 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the Maritimes tonight.
Hot temperatures are expected over the next few days with highs generally in the low 90s. Look for highs to reach the low 90s on an afternoon basis through the upcoming work week, with lows generally in the 70s.
A broad ridge remains in place across much of the US through the forecast period with ridge amplifying over the Intermountain west and central conus by midweek.
Today and Sunday: A flat ridge pattern will be over the region.
548 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 (Today and tonight) A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the Southern Plains today.
723 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure over the North Country will bring a return of more summer like conditions today with ample sunshine and temperatures rising to around 80 or slightly above.
535 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Overnight GOES-17 WV revealed the upper ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to the Pacific Northwest. A closed upper low was spinning over central NM, with drier air aloft spreading westward into eastern CO. Lingering monsoonal moisture and orographic lift will focus widely scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 105F. The ridge is still in place over the Southern Rockies. A mid-level high pressure is sitting along the Texas Gulf Coast. The trough that was over the Great Lakes will be moving east into the Atlantic Ocean.
551 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 GOES-East showing a mid-level trough pushing eastward across the eastern Dakota/western MN. At the surface, a weak surface cold front extended from western lake Superior through southwest MN. Radar was showing scattered convection along the frontal boundary/ahead of the mid-level trough. The trough and surface front continues to push southeast into our area this morning and through the day, exiting by late this afternoon. but could see a pocket or two of some heavier amount potential given the high precipitable water values/humid airmass in place. Enjoy the drier air Sunday as dew points start the creep upwards again Sunday night as a warm front pushes northward out of the Plains. Upper level ridge amplification across the Intermountain West and Plains will keep us in northwest flow aloft during this period.
Broad high pressure is forecast to continue over much of the US through the weekend, stretching from the eastern Pacific into the Central US.
Details: An upper level low continues its trek westward in central NM as high pressure shifts more over portions of Texas. A subtle disturbance on the backside of the low generated a few storms near Collingsworth county before 0700z, but all that is left now is an outflow boundary which just moved northwest through KAMA. Other models (NAM, NAMNest, TTUWRF) are more aggressive with moisture and cooler temperatures aloft, resulting in isolated storm initiation around peak heating today. The 500mb high moves more over West Texas on Sunday, but medium term guidance suggest there will be weaknesses in the high as weak westerly flow sets up over the Panhandles.
Surface ridging is translating to east of the southern Appalachians with a gradual southwest boundary layer flow for today. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 91 74 91 / 10 10 40 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 92 73 90 / 10 10 30 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 91 72 89 / 10 10 30 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 67 89 70 86 / 10 20 40 40 80.
/issued 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA. The mid-level ridge will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while temperatures prevail at near normal levels for this time of year.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday Night/ Mid level ridging will be firmly in place across the Southern Plains through the weekend resulting in warm rain free conditions across the region.
428 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Current surface map places weak cold front through western SoutH Dakota. Return flow continues into Sunday as warm front lifts northward.
931 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Dry weather will give way to increasing potential for showers and storms with the approach of a cold front through Sunday. Rain chances will escalate Sat night and Sun with the approach of an upper trough/cold front. Hi res models have hinted in recent runs of weakening to the trough and spotty coverage but with southern cell development holding a bit more moisture and less flow aloft further south, a minor flooding threat is possible.
316 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Overnight GOES-17 WV revealed the upper ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to the Pacific Northwest. A closed upper low was spinning over central NM, with drier air aloft spreading westward into eastern CO. Lingering monsoonal moisture and orographic lift will focus widely scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY.
536 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the Maritimes tonight.
As temperatures warm into the u80s-l90s early this afternoon, isolated-widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, with the highest coverage expected to be across northwest AL, where greater deep layer moisture will be more favorable. The mid-level vort max noted above is predicted to shift very slowly southeastward across the CWFA on Sunday, in the weakening gradient to the east of a building ridge over the southern High Plains.
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 As of 20Z Saturday afternoon, upper level ridging continues to reside across a portion of the central and southern Plains. A modest temperature gradient exists behind the trough axis, but this is mainly due to residual cloud cover from earlier today. Otherwise, the Topeka forecast area remains within the hot and humid sector with temperatures well into the 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. With the likelihood for increased clouds and a few showers/storms tomorrow, temperatures will a touch cooler with highs in the low to middle 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Latest surface and upper air analysis shows a ridge of high pressure extending over the Gulf of Mexico and Texas respectively. Temperatures both maximums and minimums may be a degree or two warmer than the last two days (top layer of soil drying out) but pretty much near normal with highs Sunday reaching upper 80s at the local beaches and 90s to lower 100s inland while lows tonight and Sunday night drop into the mid to upper 70s.
Prefrontal trough extending from wrn MI into ern IL and becoming the focus for renewed/vigorous convective development by 20Z nw zones nw IN - srn MI. Otherwise trailing/weak sfc front will drop toward the OH river overnight with little fanfare as upstream anticyclone across the plains settles into the mid MS valley Sunday. Good post frontal moisture scour Sunday will counter strong subsidence warming so while some 90s likely apparent temps will lag as dewpoints mix out into the low 60s in the aftn. Continued stout low level thermal ridge in place stemming from hot plains upper ridge will yield warm temps with 90s a good bet again.
High temperatures will continue to be in the mid to upper 90s and with the smoke not allowing for a whole lot of radiational cooling overnight, decided to go a little bit warmer than guidance to reflect that. Still remaining quiet through Sunday, as the the jetstream remains north of the area, however, models are suggesting the building of a subtle ridge to end the weekend and start the work week.
Low pressure off the east central Florida coast and high pressure ridge along the east coast has produced a breezy northeast flow. The low pressure area has been weak so far as wind shear and dry air has inhibited tropical development.
Congested cu are seen upstream over the west half of upper MI, as strong surface heating interacts with a secondary cold front and lake breezes. High pressure returns to northern Michigan. The forecast period begins with a 1014mb high pressure and accompanied drier air centered over Illinois that is progged to continue to build into northern Michigan.
Indeed, CIMMS satellite- derived precipitable water product is showing dry air associated with the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico pushing in from the east, with another pocket of drier air associated with the ridging attempting to build in from the Central Atlantic. These are tending to pinch the deeper moisture associated with a trough of low pressure off the Southeast northward toward the Florida Peninsula. Also, a cloud line is trying to form in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. The trough is progged to dive southwestward over Central Florida over the next couple of days.
On Sunday, smoke could increase near the surface across the area as smoke aloft begins to mix with the lower atmosphere. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected today with dry conditions and temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
238 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 (Issued 234 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Well it looks like the lingering clouds and drier air are winning out this afternoon as the weak cold front begins to push into the area. Precip chances will quickly diminish through the late afternoon and early evening as the cold front pushes through the remainder of the CWA. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected overnight into Sunday as the dry airmass works its way across the area and high pressure builds across the Midwest.
The airmass has become moderately unstable south of the weak surface cold front along the Nebraska border, though convergence is rather weak.
High pressure building over the Desert Southwest is setting up for a prolonged monsoonal moisture push into Northern California.
1129 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Overnight GOES-17 WV revealed the upper ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to the Pacific Northwest. A closed upper low was spinning over central NM, with drier air aloft spreading westward into eastern CO. Lingering monsoonal moisture and orographic lift will focus widely scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY.
219 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Water vapor imagery early Saturday afternoon shows a wound-up upper low over western NM, moving westward. On Sunday, The upper low will be well to the west in AZ with the upper high drifting closer to West Texas.
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 An approaching cold front will return showers and storms to the region early tomorrow morning. Light rain showers will continue north of Pittsburgh as a warm front continues to advances west to east. Rain chances will escalate Sun with the approach of an upper trough/cold front.
1123 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 An approaching cold front will return showers and storms to the region early tomorrow morning. Light rain showers will continue north of Pittsburgh as a warm front continues to advances west to east. Rain chances will escalate Sat night and Sun with the approach of an upper trough/cold front.
205 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains, with plume of monsoonal moisture just off to our south across southeast WY into NEB. For Sunday, warm front lifts northward and will be the focus for a few afternoon/evening storms, generally from the Black Hills eastward.
This is a result of the dew points remaining in the lower to mid 70s in these areas. High pressure will gradually build across the area tonight and remain in control of the area's weather through Sunday. This high will produce mainly clear skies and light winds. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
A weak cold front without a clearly defined wind shift is approaching from the west. Anyways, skies clear and precipitation chances end behind the cold front as a much drier air mass moves into the area. Continued quiet to start this forecast period but will be short- lived as the region enters into an unsettled period, thanks to the previously-discussed ridge building in across the Central Plains early in the week. Confidence is medium-high on the chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the upcoming week, but on the lower side in terms of some of the more nuanced details, which will of course come in to clearer focus as those time periods approach.
An elongated area of trough is situated off the Southeastern coastline. This is resulting in a split ridge pattern, with one area of high pressure centered just west of the Azores and another over the central Gulf of Mexico. There are still numerous residual boundaries in place, and given the general large-scale troughing, it is hard to reduce PoPs much more for the remainder of the day. From synopsis, an elongated area of low pressure extending from offshore of the Georgia/Florida coastline to southern Florida will result in gentle to occasionally moderate breezes this afternoon. The low will move southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Thereafter, a ridge will build across the Florida Keys and South Florida, resulting in generally southeast light to gentle breezes.
Also, a very deep dry atmosphere should allow for surface dew points to mix out this afternoon into the lower 60s west to lower 70s east allowing for lower heat indices. /issued 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA. The mid-level ridge will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while temperatures prevail at near normal levels for this time of year.