Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With this near term update, increased the cloud coverage into the afternoon time period as it will take longer to clear out some of the lower clouds than initially expected. Based on hourly trends, forecast highs may be a tad bit on the high side depending on how long the lower clouds hold.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DIGGING LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER AZ. STRONG UPPER JET CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE TROF FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MX TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.
THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO NERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND SOUTHERN KY. THE STALLED CDFNT THAT HELPED TO BRING ALL OF THE RAIN YESTERDAY IS NOW GOING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE A FEW SHRA DEVELOP DUE TO GOOD WAA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE AREA TODAY.
436 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
/ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/ THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY TODAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR WEST TEXAS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY EARLY HIGH TEMPS AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
Water vapor imagery indc a deep trof over the Rockies with a cutoff low developing in Southern Utah.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT SHOULD SOON CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY VIRGA AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ISENTROPES SHOW BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD NOT TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT PASSING THIS EVENING WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND PREVENT LOWER LEVELS FROM DECOUPLING TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 62 74 63 / 80 20 30 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 61 72 58 / 80 20 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 60 72 58 / 80 20 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 54 70 52 / 50 20 20 40 NC.
WILL KEEP WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS BEING MET OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THE PAST FEW HOURS.
/ISSUED 513 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/ ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S.
MODEL QPF TRENDS CONTINUE LIFTING PRECIP NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AHEAD OF THE EMERGING STRONG COLD FRONT.
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. POSITIVE TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
448 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY TODAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR WEST TEXAS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY EARLY HIGH TEMPS AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
The overall convective snow shower activity is expected to diminish in the next few hours as high pressure builds into the area today. In addition to the snow showers, low stratus and patches of freezing fog have formed in some of the valleys this morning, including Camas Prairie in Idaho and the Mission/Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. High pressure this weekend will be a favorable "environment" for valley inversions and strong cold pools to strengthen. This may allow more areas of freezing valley fog to develop overnight into Sunday morning that could have impact to travel and aviation.
353 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE TROUGH HAS SPLIT WITH THE NRN PORTION HAVING SHEARED OFF AND MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS THAT SHOWS CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AT 700 MB. THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY BE THE WARMEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING.
A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AT MID MORNING. THIS WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SE GA WITH WARM/MOIST AIR SPREADING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
SATELLITE SHOWS A POCKET OF HIGHER LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
a longwave trof continued to dig southeastward through the desert Southwest United States early this morning. Showers along with a few thunderstorms have already begun to develop over the CWA as a warm front tracts northward through the Southern Plains. becoming widespread this afternoon as a strong cold front moves into the region from the west. The cold front is expected to push into Eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon and could potentially get hung up over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight. strong gusty northerly winds and much cooler temperatures are forecast. Temperature profiles tonight into Sunday continue to suggest that surface temperatures remain above freezing throughout the CWA.
COULD SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BUT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL TRY TO DRY OUT THE AREA SOME. 16 AS WE WORK INTO SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS OCCURRING AS MOISTURE CONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWEST OK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE SFC WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH APPROACHING 40KTS BY AFTN. SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
FIRST THING CHANGED WAS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADD PATCHY FREEZING FOG. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
959 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move across the area today as a 1020mb high pushes into northern Missouri. The front will begin drifting back to the northeast tonight as low level flow turns back to the south in response to the ridge moving into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should be a bit milder today and into tonight behind the cold front except across our far southern zones which will probably stay in the warm and humid air.
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RELOCATE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE BIG BEND AND NORTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
136 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ NORTHWEST OHIO/CENTRAL INDIANA/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROBABLY NOT GOING TO ALLOW MANY BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST FOR A WHILE AS ANY HOLES WILL FILL IN WITH HEATING INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT IS ALL THAT'S LEFT. WITH SHALLOW COOLER AIR INVADING VIA GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH PRETTY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 2PM SURFACE MAP INDICATES THE COLD FRONT THE PRODUCED THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LAST EVENING HAS FINALLY SETTLED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THINGS QUIET BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT JUST PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON STARTS TO MAKE THE TRIP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW.
THE 06Z MODEL RUN WAS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS /DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS/.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS FLAT RIDGING OVR THE WEST. VERY WARM TO HOT UNDER MODEST TO FLAT RIDGING. TORNADO THREAT SEEM RELATIVELY LOW WITH RELATIVELY SMALL LL SHEAR AND LCLS ON THE HIGH SIDE.
221 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH CU ALREADY DEVELOPING BY 17Z OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE SAN JUANS AS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS YET STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AVIATION COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. SOME 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY.
239 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT. WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MN DURING THIS TIME. COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S). AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TAKES PLACE OVER THE EAST.
A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST INTENSE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL BE WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE DODGE CITY NWS AREA OF FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TEMPS HAVE EASILY WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.
SEA BREEZE MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER BUT WITH RIDGING IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW. TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR CEN LA, OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST LOOKING GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND. TODAY WILL SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX FROM 98 TO ABOUT 104 DEGREES.
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOT NEARLY AS GOOD THE FARTHER NORTHWEST YOU GO FROM THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING CAPPED THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ZONES, COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE PRECLUDED REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ELONGATED WEST TO EAST FROM NEW MEXICO TO OKLAHOMA WILL RE-CENTER TO OUR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
1143 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH A FEW CUMULUS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. HEIGHTS BUMP UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REPOSITIONING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER S LA LATE THIS MORNING.
STARTING TO SEE MORE EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER. WILL CARRY 20 POPS AFTER 00Z FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY AS HIGH-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ACTIVITY REMAINING CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES AND WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S.
BUT THE DEPARTING INVERTED TROUGH WILL REDUCE THE INSTABILITY ALOFT.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT 21Z WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SE. AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AN INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD UNDER A FLAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND EAST TO WEST THROUGH TAMPA BAY. GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS.
A very strong high pressure system will develop by the weekend.
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE MI AND UP THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. THIS WILL BE AS THE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS OVER THE W THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z. WITH THE COLD FRONT SINKING TO S UPPER MI. THE LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK A BIT DRIER THAN INITIALLY THOUGH.
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ESE THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR EMPORIA. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDET INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND AN 850MB HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. 18Z SFC DATA PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KCLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD SLOWLY OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.
AND A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN ITS TREK BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME DECAYING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST SPILL INTO MAINLY OUR WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BUT OFTEN TIMES MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF ADVANCING WARM FRONTS IN CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT. CLOSER TO WARM FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT (IF ANY) LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECT EVOLUTION TO A LINEAR MCS BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES EAST INTO ILLINOIS.
HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH CU ALREADY DEVELOPING BY 17Z OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE SAN JUANS AS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS YET STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO B CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTEND WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF CNU AND EXTENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF P28, THEN WEST TO NORTH OF LBL. TONIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE NE BORDER. ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NE SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NE.
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY IS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR AND DRY START TO THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 80S WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS.
424 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUES TO ADVECT COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE 850 MB AND 700 MB THETA-E RIDGES ARE QUITE WELL PRONOUNCED ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING. AND WITH WELL PRONOUNCED 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. DECENT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE AND A DECENT 700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING.
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY INVOF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH COOL AIR SPREADING INTO PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S. 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS TRICKLING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM/VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE KILX CWA. THEN WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
HI TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK WHERE IT'S CLOUDY RIGHT NOW MAY END UP BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN FORECAST.
307 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A FLATTENED MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT. HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. AND INVERTED V SHAPE IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUNDING. THIS MEANS THAT PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W TROFS IN WNW FLOW. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI WEDS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER C/NE WI LATE THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT.
PERSISTENT PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS THINNING MORNING HIGH CLOUDS TEMPER INSOLATION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF ADVANCING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES DUE TO VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
521 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CU TOMORROW WITH A MODEST LAYER OF 85% RH AND GREATER IN THE LOWEST 6KFT. BENIGN WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY WITH FRONT OVER KANSAS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY(ESPECIALLY NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY). A BROAD UPR RIDGE WL EXTEND FROM THE SERN U. NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THU NIGHT AS AN UPR RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN.
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WHICH HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80S IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MODELS SHOW STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG 305K TO 315K THETA SURFACES WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET AS IT SURGES NORTHWARD OF THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.