Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer temperature is possible by mid-week, but the chance for rain will continue.
311 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track up the east coast tonight. Behind this system, a weakening cold front will push in from the Great Lakes on Monday, then stall out south of the state.
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The large scale pattern this morning still features a deep, positively tilted trough with the axis stretching from southern CA to the northern Plains. Southwest flow will begin to bring warmer air in Tuesday, marking the beginning of a lengthy warming trend. Most locations will end October with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Ridging begins to build into the Upper Midwest for the weekend.
Tuesday will see SW winds as arctic high pressure slides to the southeast into the deep south and blyr warm advection persists with a clipper sliding se across Manitoba.
1102 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 The latest water vapor images and RAP model analysis shows a deep trough over most of the western/central CONUS with a large ridge off the West Coast. Upper low pressure was centered over the ID/UT/WY area with a strongly positive tilt.
Meanwhile an Atlantic ridge extends westward towards South Florida and the Keys. Broad troughing due to Zeta continues to push confluent moist lower level flow across our area. Building ridging aloft will have a negative effect on deep convection however. Surface winds are expected to increase a bit further today as the pressure gradient is squeezed some by the Atlantic ridge and as Zeta nears the Yucatan Channel and its closest point of approach to the Key. Heading into mid week, as Zeta moves further northwestward, the Atlantic ridge will build further westward into South Florida and the Keys.
1006 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Expect a cold and chilly night tonight, with lows in the lower 50s again. Expect high pressure through tomorrow night with temperatures a lot like todays highs.
Tonight Through Tuesday Cloudy weather will continue through the short term, as northerly/ northeast surface flow continues to push cooler air into the region. As a closed upper low develops over the Desert southwest, upper flow will become southwesterly and push a stalled boundary back to the north a bit.
Otherwise, warmer highs compared to today are expected Monday from a few degrees in the Basin to exceeding 10-15 degrees and more in central OR.
256 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold high pressure centered over the area, with low pressure over the Four Corners region. Upper level analysis shows large trough over the Rockies region, sinking slowly south, with low pressure embedded over northeast UT.
If temps fall near or below freezing, this may result in a light glaze on elevated surfaces. Latest model trends are a bit faster with the colder, freezing temps, and given our western areas have not warmed and are hovering near freezing already, the wintry precip transition to all snow should be brief overnight. Temperature profiles vary by a few degrees towards east central KS which may result in freezing rain or sleet mixing in with the snow. Headlines included expanding the Winter Weather Advisory further east to encompass the entire area as well as extending the time through 06Z Tuesday to account for lingering light snow and light freezing drizzle. Plan to also mention the freezing temps as forecast lows tonight will be in the 20s to low 30s.
Strong closed low developing over the Four Corners will advect warm air and moisture with the southwesterly flow aloft across the Wabash & Ohio River Valleys increasing isentropic lift.
/issued 1006 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/ Expect a cold and chilly night tonight, with lows in the lower 50s again. Expect high pressure through tomorrow night with temperatures a lot like todays highs.
Flow aloft turns northwesterly on Tuesday as today's upper level trough flattens and moves east of the forecast area.
Looking at highs increasing into the 40s by the end of the week thanks to ridging encroaching on the Red River Valley and sticking around through the rest of the week. Good news is that cloud base levels will remain in the lower end VFR range 4000 to 8000 ft agl range.
As the low level flow turns SW, low cigs should be able to build into the Tri-Cities area by 12Z. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 60 76 60 72 / 10 10 10 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 59 73 57 69 / 10 10 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 58 72 57 69 / 10 10 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 55 72 55 69 / 10 10 20 10 30.
400 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Mid level ridging will build in over Florida today and hold through the middle of the week as Tropical Storm Zeta gradually lifts northwest out of the western Caribbean Sea and into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing Tuesday afternoon helping to decrease the powdery nature of the snow, so the blowing snow issue will be decreasing as the day progresses.
High pressure at the surface is centered over the northern plains this morning with a weak frontal boundary just offshore to along the coast locally. Moisture is returning over portions of SETX with dewpoints already in the low 70s in the Houston/Galveston area, however locally dewpoints remain in the 50s and 60s.
Looking at highs increasing into the 40s by the end of the week thanks to ridging encroaching on the Red River Valley and sticking around through the rest of the week.
/Issued 405 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/ Areas of rain/freezing rain have developed overnight in a zone of decent elevated forcing. Freezing temps will mostly be confined to Osage and Pawnee counties, however its possible that the colder temps expand east in locations near the KS border. Tonight, expect areas of freezing drizzle across parts of NE OK as these locations will be in a precip lull overnight. The next wave ejects from the upper low that will be located over srn AZ/NM. This wave will generate another round of rain and freezing rain across the area. Freezing temperatures Monday night and Tuesday morning will generally be to the northwest of I-44.
A slow warming trend will continue into Tuesday, but existing snow pack could make it a hard task to get above freezing for most.
620 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The large scale pattern this morning still features a deep, positively tilted trough with the axis stretching from southern CA to the northern Plains. Southwest flow will begin to bring warmer air in Tuesday, marking the beginning of a lengthy warming trend. Most locations will end October with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Ridging begins to build into the Upper Midwest for the weekend.
449 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold high pressure centered over the area, with low pressure over the Four Corners region. Upper level analysis shows large trough over the Rockies region, sinking slowly south, with low pressure embedded over northeast UT.
Then, high pressure will keep us dry through the rest of today and into Tuesday. Winds will come around to westerly on Tuesday and skies will be clear in the afternoon, but temperatures will prove to be only slightly warmer than Monday.
This will lean to breezy southeast winds and warmer temperatures today. A cold front is expected to move into deep south Texas tonight into Tuesday.
For tonight, areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle can not be ruled out. It may be difficult to create any road impacts given surface temps hovering around freezing and road temperature at the moment are well above freezing. The freezing drizzle could bring a glaze of ice on elevated objects as far south as the I-44 corridor.
Temperature-wise, with persistent south winds, slightly warmer values are expected today. Behind the front, a drier and slightly cooler airmass filters in bringing temperatures from the upper 60s to upper 70s on Tuesday.
Overnight lows will also be well above average, in the lows to mid 70s. For reference, average high temperatures for the date are in the low 80s and average lows are in the mid 60s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly from Orlando southward, with the highest chances inland.
A cold front will bring sharply colder temperatures and areas of mainly snow showers that will last through Tuesday. Locations that have not already experienced freezing temperatures can expect to have a hard freeze tonight, the only exception being locations below 3000-4000 feet.
Now a large ridge established over the eastern Pacific Ocean has set up a stream of moisture that originates north of Hawaii, travels north to Alaska, then turns east around the ridge and, finally southeast through British Columbia. The warmer air mass arriving from the northwest will have two significant impacts to the local weather: the potential for light snow or freezing rain and air stagnation in the valleys. First we'll discuss the freezing rain potential. However, this does fit one of the better patterns that can produce freezing rain for our region. Depending on location, the light precipitation could be snow, freezing drizzle, or light freezing rain. Second, the warmer air coming in will cause warm to more seasonable temperatures in the mountains, but the warmer air will not be able to scour the cold air out of the valleys.
Many locations are below freezing at this time with the exception being Ashland, which remains breezy and in the 40's. Most locations along the coast will stay in the lower 40's and upper 30's this morning. A strong area of high pressure off the coast of Oregon will slowly build eastward into Tuesday. Temperatures will trend higher and push into the lower 70's within valleys west of the Cascades and along the southern Oregon coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 60 76 61 72 / 20 10 10 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 59 74 58 71 / 40 10 10 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 57 74 57 70 / 40 10 10 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 56 72 54 71 / 20 10 10 10 40.
830 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The weather story for the morning is the low clouds and fog across the Nature Coast and Central Florida, extending westward to around Tampa Bay. Conditions do not look favorable for convection to grow very tall and tap into the cooler and drier air to produce strong storms with lots of lightning, strong winds, or hail.
Though there should be slow improvement, the lower cigs may linger a little longer in northern terminals. Guidance is a bit warmer today for much of the area, though the flow remains light and northeasterly. Warm air advection is setting up in the midlevels as a 500mb trough digs in over the desert SW, setting up a much more amplified pattern aloft over the CONUS. At the same time, a large vertically stacked closed low will be located over the Desert Southwest with sub- tropical ridging centered just off the southeast coast. As we head into the middle of the work week, the closed low is expected to eject into the Southern Plains as Zeta nears the Gulf Coast.
Latest water vapor loop has a digging mid level trough over the southwest US. Ample moisture being pushed out ahead of the trough over the central and eastern US. At the surface a cold front was over the deep south. This is where the highest PoPs and QPF will be through Tuesday afternoon.
Warmer air aloft will move in today, which will aid some warming of temps in many mountain and foothill locations. Highs Tuesday will be in the 30s to around 40 with 40s in the foothills where some of the warmer air will mix down.
348 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Water vapor imagery showing the upper low slowly sliding southward across eastern Utah and this trend will continue the rest of tonight and during the day on Monday. Expect single digits in most areas, but below zero possible in low lying areas of the plains and especially across the high mountain valleys.
Water vapor imagery showing the upper low slowly sliding southward across eastern Utah and this trend will continue the rest of tonight and during the day on Monday. Expect single digits in most areas, but below zero possible in low lying areas of the plains and especially across the high mountain valleys.
Light to somewhat elevated erly wind will develop by late morning, then persist through the afternoon as the area remains between high pressure to the north and lower pressures over the Rio Grande. High pressure at the surface is centered over the northern plains this morning with a weak frontal boundary just offshore to along the coast locally. Moisture is returning over portions of SETX with dewpoints already in the low 70s in the Houston/Galveston area, however locally dewpoints remain in the 50s and 60s.
The lowest flight conds wl persist the longest acrs N AR, where periods of rain are also expected. This, combined with a N/NE sfc wind, has held temps fairly steady durg the overnight hrs, with predawn readings ranging fm the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
Winds will decrease this afternoon, but locally strong winds will occur again tonight across the higher elevation ridges.
556 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 A weakening cold front will push in from the Great Lakes today, then stall out south of the state tonight and Tuesday.
This, combined with a N/NE sfc wind, has held temps fairly steady durg the overnight hrs, with predawn readings ranging fm the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
Models continue to back off the cold front further north and west associated with the Midwest trough and separating/deepening low in the SW US Tuesday. Front weakens as the Midwest trough moves east, and the strong closed low over NM moves east late Tuesday.
High pressure aloft will expand eastward across the Great Basin beginning Tuesday and remain in place through the remainder of the week.
Water vapor images show a trough moving through the Great Basin bringing a colder and drier airmass over much of CA. East to west oriented basins should see breezy conditions into the foothills this morning with stronger gusty winds into this afternoon over the higher ridges of the sierra. Strong wind potential diminishes this evening as the low moves further away into AZ. Lower elevations in Kern county desert could see low temperatures lower below freezing Tuesday morning. By early Tuesday morning the upper trough will continue moving eastward toward the Texas panhandle region allowing an eastern Pacific ridge to begin building into the region.
405 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Areas of rain/freezing rain have developed overnight in a zone of decent elevated forcing. Freezing temps will mostly be confined to Osage and Pawnee counties, however its possible that the colder temps expand east in locations near the KS border. Tonight, expect areas of freezing drizzle across parts of NE OK as these locations will be in a precip lull overnight. The next wave ejects from the upper low that will be located over srn AZ/NM. This wave will generate another round of rain and freezing rain across the area. Freezing temperatures Monday night and Tuesday morning will generally be to the northwest of I-44.
As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the forecast area are in the lower 50s across most locations with middle/upper 50s across extreme Northeast Mississippi.
Streamer showers will continue to move across the terminals through late morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Otherwise, mid level ridging is quickly traversing eastward across the Gulf of Mexico with the center about to reach the Florida Peninsula. The higher resolution models are not too excited that we will see much in the way of precipitation. Thereafter, the aforementioned mid level ridge will continue to move eastward and settle just off the Space Coast of Florida by late tonight into Tuesday. Ridging will then establish across the region late tonight into Tuesday, leading to a gradual easing of breezes.
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 A weakening cold front will push in from the Great Lakes today, then stall out south of the state tonight and Tuesday.
Forecast for the day remains on track as the cold trough affecting the forecast area continues to move downstream. High pressure aloft will expand eastward across the Great Basin beginning Tuesday and remain in place through the remainder of the week.
217 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Light snow continues to stream southwest to northeast across the area, but is gradually shifting southward as the upper trough digs into the southern Rockies.
259 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Skies remain mostly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s. Currently, a large upper level low was dropping south across eastern Utah and into northern Arizona. As the upper low moves south tonight, continued southwest flow aloft will spread moisture across the southern Plains and into much of northern Arkansas. On Tuesday, the upper low will make a more eastward turn moving across southern New Mexico. Highs on Tuesday will only reach the lower 50s across portions of northeast Arkansas with low to mid 70s expected over southern sections of the Mid-South.
215 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 An upper trough is extending from the Dakotas into the Great Basin region, with the base cutting off near the Four Corners. Upper ridging is building in across the western third of the CONUS, moving into the northern Plains over the next several days. Warmer air will continue to work its way into the region, with warmer temperatures each day.
The high will remain the dominant feature over the area into the evening hours, and will likely see temperatures drop fairly rapidly after sunset under clear skies. The WAA then continues through the day Tuesday into Tuesday night as the region remains situated between the high to the south and approaching low pressure to the northwest. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to mid 20s.
Chances for a wintry mix of light snow and light freezing drizzle will occur this evening and overnight across portions of east central Kansas into west central Missouri as cloud ice is lost, where a light glaze of ice on surfaces will be possible.
1030 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Freezing line has now moved to near a Bartlesville to Pawnee line in northeast Oklahoma and should continue to slowly spread to the east-southeast during the day today. The freezing line is expected to remain north and west of the Tulsa metro area during the daylight hours. Ice accumulations are expected to have the greatest impact in the areas that are already below freezing and especially over western Osage and Pawnee Counties where surface temperatures are closer to 30 degrees.
Temperatures will likely fall a few more degrees overnight with the precip and allow the the rain to switch to freezing rain and sleet for much of the area north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line, with pockets of sleet possible farther south as well. Model soundings show a pronounced warm layer above the surface, so snow not expected but a mixture of sleet and freezing rain likely.
1125 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold high pressure centered over the area, with low pressure over the Four Corners region. Upper level analysis shows large trough over the Rockies region, sinking slowly south, with low pressure embedded over northeast UT.
Widespread freezing temperatures occurred last night in west side valleys from the Umpqua Basin down to the Shasta Valley. Thankfully for those still attempting grow in the area, temperatures the remainder of the week will stay above freezing in the mid-to-upper 30s. Brookings will be the oddball out, as today temperatures could climb into the low 70s with downslope winds causing additional warming in that area. Gusty northeast to east winds will persist into early Monday morning, especially over the ridges. A thermal trough along the coast will continue strong north to northeast winds and steep to very steep seas through Tuesday night, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore south of Cape Blanco.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 75 61 72 66 / 20 10 30 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 73 58 71 63 / 20 10 20 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 57 73 57 70 63 / 10 10 20 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 71 54 71 60 / 10 10 10 40 70.
Milder air will be pulled north into the region, with highs Tuesday 10-20 degrees warmer compared to this afternoon. Broad upper level high pressure develops through the rest of the week across the Rockies, resulting in dry weather and milder temperatures for the region.
A growing area of showers is heading towards the Lower Keys and poised to strike soon.
A gradual moderation of these extreme and record breaking temperatures is expected to occur this week as periods of cloudiness and the slight chance for some light snow or freezing rain, help moderate the arctic air mass in place.
The freezing line is expected to hang up along the I-44 corridor tonight, with temperatures in that area hovering right around 32. Right along the corridor, having temperatures right at freezing in the forecast leads to greater uncertainty and lesser impacts due to marginal temperatures and relatively warm ground temperatures.
/Issued 1030 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/ Freezing line has now moved to near a Bartlesville to Pawnee line in northeast Oklahoma and should continue to slowly spread to the east-southeast during the day today. The freezing line is expected to remain north and west of the Tulsa metro area during the daylight hours. Ice accumulations are expected to have the greatest impact in the areas that are already below freezing and especially over western Osage and Pawnee Counties where surface temperatures are closer to 30 degrees.
That said, the EC trended warmer about 4 runs previous, and has stayed a bit more optimistic. After the cold start to the week, trends in the models continue to favor moving to a more zonal upper level pattern, with long wave ridging even building in for the end of the weekend. The EC has been trending this way for the past couple days, and the GFS may be catching on to more aggressive warming/ridge building too. This cumulus will dissipate by sunset with just a few VFR mid and high clouds through the remainder of the period as high pressure drifts overhead.
Moisture remains confined to the lower levels across the area.
247 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The storm/trough responsible for switching us straight into winter continues to meander well off to our south through Tuesday. The trough gets cut off by a positive tilted ridge upstream, and places Colorado in the doldrums aloft so to speak.
255 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 High pressure remains in control across the FL peninsula with a relatively zonal flow regime in place across the eastern half of the CONUS. As a trough axis deepens, the attendant surface front should make forward progress across the state.
Weak high pressure across the area Tuesday with warming temperatures.
An approaching ridge on Tuesday will help to rebound temperatures to values closer to seasonal normals, and will keep dry conditions presents through most of the work week.
Roads melted pretty well today, though some slushy conditions were still being reported in northeast Nebraska, where cloud cover and temperatures in the low to mid 20s have limited melting.
1252 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The large scale pattern this morning still features a deep, positively tilted trough with the axis stretching from southern CA to the northern Plains. Southwest flow will begin to bring warmer air in Tuesday, marking the beginning of a lengthy warming trend. Most locations will end October with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Ridging begins to build into the Upper Midwest for the weekend.
Thanks to some weak CAD in the Carolinas, combined with the recent rainfall driving dewpoints into the low to mid 60s, have formed a dense low-level cloud deck that is slowly eroding away generally from Georgia's state boarders inward. The cloud cover has helped keep the forecast area cooler today with highs around 70 for most of North Georgia with some upper-70s in central Georgia.
Along the southern tier of counties, there may be some sleet and freezing rain mixed in and this could cause slick conditions.