Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1022 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Compact wave in northwest flow will bring some subtle changes to conditions as is slides southeast across Minnesota this evening, and pushes a cold front across the area. This favorable weather is care of the northern stream jet remaining just to the north of the area with a gradually building ridge of high pressure aloft.
Very little change is expected to the general air mass across the high plains tonight so look for lows once again down into the 30s(F) and possibly the upper 20s(F). Although a weak frontal boundary is pushing southward across western and central Kansas early Tuesday morning setting up northerly winds across the region, little additional cold air is expected to move into the high plains. With decreasing clouds expected, at least across west central and central Kansas, look for highs to only push the lower to mid 50s(F) Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions are likely through the end of the week as medium range models show upper level ridging moving slowly east across the Intermountain West into the high plains during the period.
After 14Z, a cold front pushes through the I-35 corridor bringing an end to TSRA, but some shower activity will continue for a few hours behind the boundary. Our forecast looks to be in good shape, but cooler air has moved into our western counties. We have lowered the low temperatures a few degrees out there as we are already close to forecast lows. There has been little change in model solutions over the past day or so, and all models continue to project scattered showers in the western half of our area through the evening, then a line of strong to marginally severe storms along a cold front, sweeping through areas west of I-35 between midnight and 6 am. Otherwise, high pressure will quickly usher in cooler air and clear skies from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure aloft will expand across the interior west midweek, resulting in dry and stable conditions. The rather strong upper ridge over the west coast states through western Canada will maintain a dry and stable east-northeast flow across Utah tonight through Tuesday.
Have added some PoPs to mainly the srn third of the CWA for tonight as the upper trof digs into the area. Generally trended twd warmer temps for tonight with cloud cover expected to help keep temps warmer. With the arrival of a weak cdfnt and nwly flow, generally trended twd the cooler guidance for Tues. The period will start out with a weak vort max/upper low sliding across portions of Arkansas and Louisiana. Guidance is in general agreement that the strong trough diving into the Great Lakes region will be enough to shunt the moisture associated with the southern stream system off to the south of the area by Tuesday night.
High pressure will slide off to the east this evening, allowing a weak upper disturbance to approach from the west. A cold front will be departing to the southeast of our counties Tuesday evening, as its parent low pressure center moves across southern Ontario toward New York State.
118 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley overnight.
1250 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
An upper level low pressure system will cross from south central to east central New Mexico tonight before exiting to the east on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will bring drier air and warmer temperatures during the latter half of the work week. However, precipitation chances will increase again and temperatures will cool as an upper level trough crosses from the west this weekend. Snow amounts have been on the lighter end of the forecast range so far with this system, but models depict precipitation coverage briefly increasing again this evening as the upper low makes deeper inroads into New Mexico. In the wake of the upper low a secondary upper level trough will deepen over the state Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Isolated valley to scattered mountain snow showers will be around today as an upper level trof moves across the area from the north.
1145 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure overhead this evening will shift to the east coast overnight. Southwest flow will ramp up on Tuesday in advance of a trough developing over the Upper Great Lakes. The trough will deepen across the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday night pulling a cold front south across the area. Lingering cloud cover in Pennsylvania will gradually erode overnight as the ridge axis moves overhead and the flow backs to the southwest. Southwest flow and warm advection will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next trough that will deepen across the Great Lakes region during the mid-week period. Daytime hours will be dry with very dry air above 800mb until the airmass starts to moisten as the cold front approaches.
Rain will continue to affect the area overnight into at least Tuesday morning as an upper low continues to approach and move across the Southern Plains. The rain will gradually end Tuesday afternoon and evening as the low begins to exit the area, with the rain hanging on the longest in S/SE portions of the fa. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing that winter precipitation is not expected tonight. Some locations could see as much as 1-2 inches of rain by Tuesday evening, with the highest amounts expected in portions of southern OK and north TX.
A reinforcing surge of cooler air will move southward across the area Tuesday morning wtih gusty north winds in its wake. A reinforcing surge of cooler air will move southward across the area Tuesday morning wtih gusty north winds in its wake. Tuesday night expected to be dry, as strong downward motions resume following the passage of mid-level trof.
As such, will maintain lows in the mid 20s for the cooler valleys. Temperatures dropping off fairly quickly this evening given high pressure and light winds in place. Expect a ridge/valley temperature split tonight with valleys dipping into the mid-upper 20s as ridges remain in the low 30s. As the low passes by to our south on Tuesday night, models agree on moisture/precip making its way north across the TN/KY border. Temperatures should be mostly above freezing, with the exception of the highest elevations near the VA border.
341 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Weaker high pressure is currently hanging on across the mid- Mississippi Valley, with an area of low pressure moving across north central Ontario, and broader low pressure across northern Mexico. Aloft, deeper troughing is becoming established across the Great Lakes and Midwest, with an upper level low moving east across the New Mexico/Texas border. Eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of weaker high pressure, with plenty of mid and high level clouds streaming in from the west, and a few light radar returns showing up closer to the Ohio River.
349 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Weak high pressure builds south of the area Tuesday with mainly sunny skies and highs in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Upper-level ridging will build into the central Rockies on Tuesday, and remain intact through at least mid-week.
Regional radars continue to show light precip along the I-70 corridor in Illinois, as a warm advection wing lifts NE ahead of an upper low working into the TX/OK Panhandle. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s for highs. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 30s in many areas. We'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 50s. For now, have kept chance PoPs going across the south with lows in the lower 30s in the north and in the middle 30s across the south.
/Issued 753 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/ Evening water vapor imagery shows a PV max near El Paso, part of a parent trough over the Southwest CONUS in the southern stream, moving east. Another trough was diving southeast across the Midwest in the northern stream. The rain band should gradually shift south late tonight into Tuesday, partly due to the influence of the northern stream trough. /Issued 313 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/ Rain continues to increase west of I-35 this afternoon as compact upper level low moves east across New Mexico.
345 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough over northeast New Mexico at 08Z.
1207 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through tomorrow. Snow shower chances return with a Tuesday night cold front.
A few high clouds spilling over the Pac NW ridge are also dissipating as they drift south into wrn SD. Upper level analysis shows a ridge over the west coast, and a low over southern AZ/NM. Mild and dry weather will continue through the week, as the upper ridge slowly transitions eastward.
1047 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Closed upper low is centered near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border, with SW diffluent flow over the southern plains. RAP soundings as of 18Z continues to show warm enough Tw aloft to support rain reaching the surface this afternoon/evening and with above freezing temps this should limit any frozen precip potential.
Tonight-Thu Night: We'll have nice weather throughout these periods as strong upper- deck ridging spreads slowly east, crossing the Northern Rockies Tue Night & Wed & then across the Northern Plains Wed Night-Thu Night. The developing sfc trof would induce S-SW sfc flow to spread across KS to produce a pronounced warmup on Thu. Sat Night-Mon: Still anticipate gradually more active weather as a deep upper-deck cyclone moves slowly east along the Mexico/AZ/NM border.
The upper flow across central Canada is currently northwesterly due to the positive anomaly/ridge out west. After another mild day today, a couple cooler days are expected as the forecast area gets grazed by the southwest flank of a cold air mass driven southeast by the northwest upper flow.
946 PM PST Mon Feb 13 2017 Strong high pressure will bring dry weather to much of the Inland Northwest through Tuesday.
1226 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Generally under high pressure which should keep us fairly dry. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
Weak high pressure remains in place across much of the SE region this Mon evening, translating into quiet and fairly seasonal temps thus far. Temp trends were mainly in the lower/mid 40s for many locations, although a few spots have lowered into the upper 30s. A stormy flow was moving across the northern Pacific Basin, as a powerful jet between 30-40N, and east of Japan to 150W continued south of upper lows east of the Kamchatka and the Aleutians.
923 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 A low pressure system moving out of the Desert Southwest will mean a lingering chance of showers mainly across eastern Arizona through Tuesday.
Advection is neutral to slightly cooler for today, but think this will be countered by better insolation through higher clouds than the mid deck we had in place Monday. Overall sensible weather should be northwesterly winds around 10mph with some higher afternoon gusts towards 20 mph, with highs in the lower 50s.
Winds are veering westerly along a diffuse cold front now heading into central Minnesota.
As the moisture pulls out, there might be enough cold air for the precip to end as some wet flakes across the higher elevations on the plateau although model soundings are drying out the snow growth zone quickly.
105 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will become centered over the Carolinas tonight, then move off the southeast coast Tuesday.
1200 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies tonight with lows in the lower 30s. A cold front will bring a brief spell of more seasonable temperatures and possibly a few snow showers Tuesday night otherwise the work week will remain mostly dry.
Northwest flow aloft remains overhead with a strong ridge over the northwestern US and a trough across much of Ontario. This trough will send a weak shot of cold air advection skirting into our area as the trough drops southeast through the Great Lakes region today. Favorable northwest mixing winds could produce some gusts this afternoon into the 30 mph range but these should subside by evening as the surface pressure gradient relaxes with broad high pressure building overhead.
240 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 Lingering low pressure over the Desert Southwest will bring a slight chance for showers over south central AZ today and tonight, mainly over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix.
Over the next 36 hours a fairly amplified ridge of high pressure will build over the region. Models indicated significant drying beneath the ridge so expect low stratus and fog will mix out today and is unlikely to return tonight. Temperatures will experience a small setback today as northeasterly flow aloft delivers slightly cooler air to the region. The Gunnison Valley and the Upper Yampa River Basin, where inversions have become reestablished, will be the outliers as surface flow will be too weak to mix in warmer air.
330 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure provides dry weather with mild temperatures today. A cold front tonight brings showers back tonight.
Light to moderate rain will continue to spread across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today as upper low tracks eastward along the red river.
326 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure over the area tonight will shift off the coast Tuesday.
910 PM PST Mon Feb 13 2017 A weak trough will bring scattered clouds and minor cooling Tuesday.
144 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Generally under high pressure which should keep us fairly dry. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
/issued 831 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017/ A frontal boundary remains situated across the Florida peninsula this evening and will remain stalled tonight as weak ridging aloft gets suppressed and the flow becomes more zonal. Indeed, the forecast concern for the night will be the low-level moisture in place along with the stalled frontal boundary.
An upper level ridge of high pressure was directly over the state this afternoon, bringing these quiet conditions to the Ozarks.
A weak ribbon of theta-e advection will aid in driving another round of light elevated showers over the southern CWA this evening before shifting south as a strong ridge builds to the north. Northerly flow will prevail through the day on Tuesday downstream of the ridge axis but a weak H850 thermal ridge coupled with modest mixing as depicted in the NAM/GFS soundings should be enough to push temperatures into the low to mid 50s. Clouds should likewise be on the decline tomorrow as the ridge becomes better established and the Southern Plains low shifts east and weakens.
The next low pressure system to affect the Great Valley swings out through the Lower Mississippi Valley later in the day and into the Mid South late this evening.
A cold front will move into the area toward tomorrow morning, resulting in wind switching to northwest.
246 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 Dry and warmer conditions are expected in the short term period.
1023 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 An upper level low will move east-northeastward acrs NM tonight, moving into the TX panhandle area Tue morning. Most of the forecast area should be dry on Tue, with warmer temps. The southeast plains should see highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with mainly 40s in the high valley locations. Tue night and Wed will be dry as an upper ridge moves ovr the area. Temps will be even warmer on Wed with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s acrs the southeast plains. Only slightly warmer temps are expected in the high valleys, where most temps will be in the 40s.
High pressure across the Ohio River Valley will shift southeastward tonight to the Carolina coast, becoming elongated back to the northeast across the Tennesse Valley. Overnight, expect a slow increase in cloud cover from the west as high clouds spill over the flattening upper level ridge axis. With no significant increase in moisture overnight, calm surface winds, and the late increase in high clouds, overnight lows will be cooler tonight in most places than last night, with a range of mid 30s in the north to lower 40s in the south.
438 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a closed low in the southern Rockies and a trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning.
159 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will be in control of southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle weather for the remainder of the week.
322 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 An upper level trough currently over northern Manitoba will travel across the Great Lakes Region later this afternoon. This system will being cooler temperatures via gusty northerly winds into the area. A broad area of high pressure will slide across the region later tonight with winds becoming light and variable.
/issued 316 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A potent upper level low is currently located near the southern New Mexico/Arizona border. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight as large scale lift increases with the approach of the upper level low. As the upper level low tracks across north Texas, wrap around shower activity will be possible across the Big Country into the afternoon hours.
412 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a closed low in the southern Rockies and a trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning. Otherwise just watching the warmth coming in over the weekend with building upper ridging. In the wake of a passing sfc trof, VFR conditions will trend to MVFR by daybreak at KIWD/KCMX and by late morning at KSAW.
332 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
1218 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 West to northwest winds at around 10 to 20 mph are expected to continue for much of the morning hours, keeping the lower atmosphere mixed, and keeping temperatures from dropping off much. Minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20s still seems on track. A little breezy with high pressure over southeast Canada and low pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies. Weak cold air advection through Tuesday will yield slightly cooler conditions tonight and tomorrow central. However, the arrival of low level warm air advection far west tomorrow will result in slightly warmer conditions in the lower 40s.
A weak surface and upper ridge over Alabama was producing calm winds at the surface and a dry air mass aloft.
No sensible weather issue with max wind gusts mid day and how deep mixing of low levels are today that may allow for slightly warmer highs in some locations. Highs expected to be in the lower 40s near highway 20 corridor to lower 50s south sections. Lows in the lower 20s north to the middle 20s south with a light to moderate frost possible toward morning.
High pressure will stay situated over the Central Plains keeping precipitation well south of Nebraska.
Increasing chances for lower clouds will then occur Tues afternoon from north to south with the approach of a cold front from the north. Additional veering of the winds toward the west will occur Tues evening with the passage of the cold front. Tightening pressure gradient between a deepening low pressure system dropping southeast from the western shore of Hudson Bay and surface riding settling south of the area will lead to steady southwest flow overnight tonight promoting warm air advection into Tuesday morning. With clear skies and relatively light winds early, expect the low temperatures to occur by midnight with steady to slowly rising temperatures overnight.
The clouds are ahead of a low pressure system currently located across South Texas. To our West another trough is digging across West Texas.
328 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure will be moving farther off the Southeast Coast today.
A strong upper ridge was positioned over Idaho this morning and will provide dry and mild weather through the short term. The ridge is progged to slide into western Montana and become positively tilted this afternoon.
Before the trough moves through, west to southwest winds will be sufficient, along with skies becoming mostly sunny, to have afternoon highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s; which is still quite a bit above normal. The current cloud cover should push east and southeast as the trough moves through. This drives a cold front southeast across CWA later this afternoon and evening and through KY/TN on Wed. Have partly to mostly sunny skies Wed with more stratocumulus clouds from I-74 ne, closer to upper level low. Deepening/very strong upper level low moves off the New England Coast Wed night and lifts up into the eastern Canadian Maritimes on Thu with IL in a quiet nw upper level flow. Lows Thu nigh in the lower 30s from I-74 ne and upper 30s sw of Springfield.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low steadily progressing eastward across northern Mexico. This low is still expected to track across Texas today. At the same time, another upper trough is dropping south the northern Mississippi Valley.
Today looks to be the coolest day of the week as the area remains under northwest flow aloft as an upper low shifts off to the east and upper ridging begins building into the western CONUS. Although relatively cooler compared to the last few days, readings in the 20s (north) and 30s (south) will still be above average. Although winds don't look to be quite as breezy as they did with the weak cold front Monday, did include a brief mention of some patchy blowing snow for the northern third of the Red River Valley and points westward where snow remains and some blowing/melting/refreezing on roadways created some slick spots yesterday in these areas.
1233 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through tomorrow. Snow shower chances return with a Tuesday night cold front.
High pressure behind the front will bring mainly dry weather and colder temperatures through mid week, followed by a warming trend for the weekend. Also, it looks like temperatures will warm slightly overnight due to some weak WAA in the low levels. This would allow hydrometeors to completely melt and fall as rain if above 32 or brief freezing rain if 32 or slightly below. Low pressure entering the Great Lakes will drag a moisture starved cold front into the ILN area from the northwest late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
By Tuesday afternoon, a low pressure system approaching from the southern plains will set up a band of moisture across the Mid State.
334 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 A ridge of high pressure will finally provide a break today with at least some sunshine for most of the region.
Winds will be from a northerly direction through tonight as high pressure dominates the area. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the lower 50s with lows tonight ranging from the mid 20s across northwest Kansas to around 30 degrees across south central Kansas.
Although some drier air will advect in the low and mid levels, cirrus will continue to stream northward today as an upper low moves from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 Surface map this morning had a cold front extending from eastern Upper Michigan through eastern Wisconsin. Temperatures as of 2 am were in the lower to middle 30s. For today, a mid-level trough and secondary surface cold front drops southward through the area this afternoon. Look for temperatures to climb into the mid 30s/lower 40s ahead of the cold front.
140 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 Closed upper low is centered near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border, with SW diffluent flow over the southern plains. RAP soundings as of 18Z continues to show warm enough Tw aloft to support rain reaching the surface this afternoon/evening and with above freezing temps this should limit any frozen precip potential.
Mid to high clouds along and ahead of the weak cold front passing through moderated daytime heating during the mid day.