Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite most of the eastern United States seeing an active pattern, our weather will remain rather benign as high pressure remains in control. Moderate southerly or southeasterly winds will continue as the region remains between a high pressure over the Atlantic and a low over the Tennessee River Valley. That said, a rogue shower or two within this low level flow regime cannot be ruled out, especially over the Gulf Stream where the better boundary layer moisture will reside. Temperatures through the short term will continue to be a degree or two above average across the region as thicknesses/heights remain a bit on the higher side.
With the upper ridge pattern remaining over the west coast we should see a similar warming today with slightly higher temperatures across the region today. Low pressure in the upper levels moving southward west of the coast today will continue to push clouds into the area this morning. Clear skies tonight into Friday morning are likely to lead to IFR and LIFR low clouds and fog across the lower valleys of Coos, Douglas, and Josephine counties late tonight into Friday morning.
Stronger upper level ridging is likely to take hold across the western U. Discussion: A cold front will drop through later today from 23-02z with an increase in NW winds.
Latest surface analysis suggests a marine warm front is now positioned along the immediate coast of Alabama westward to the north of New Orleans. Along and south of the front, there are increasing breaks in the clouds with continued diurnal heating with temperatures already into the lower to middle 70s and dewpoints into the lower 70s. A line of thunderstorms has already developed this morning as of 16z along the cold front from southern Mississippi into southeast Louisiana. Additionally, a few elevated mini-supercells developed along the warm front earlier this morning and have since moved north of the boundary into more stable air and weakened. Additional supercell development along this warm front cannot be ruled out during peak heating with a higher tornado, large hail, and damaging wind threat.
Most locations received around an inch of snowfall and a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain and sleet, however there were locally higher amounts of snow observed in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains around 3-6". We are also anticipating some partial melting to occur this afternoon which will lead to a refreezing of snow and ice on roads after sunset. After a bitter cold night, full sun tomorrow will help accelerate melting across our region and we should finally see temperatures back above freezing by the afternoon. The strong sfc anticyclone to our northeast will finally begin to weaken tomorrow, however another very cold night is expected tomorrow night.
(This evening through Friday) This afternoon, as an upper trough over New Mexico approaches, we'll see some occasional snow flurries, but no additional accumulation is expected. So western areas will be coldest (10 degrees or lower), while eastern areas will be several degrees warmer (10 to 15 degrees). In the morning, road conditions will remain hazardous with icy conditions in place from the re-freezing mentioned earlier. For the rest of Friday, any lingering cloud cover will clear out, allowing sunshine to return as the main trough axis finally starts to move eastward. Additional sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow more melting to occur tomorrow afternoon.
The latest upper level analysis reveals well defined upper level trough with axis extending south southwest from the central plains into eastern NM. As the trough shifts east, subsidence will quickly take over helping to end precip from west to east. Dry northerly flow aloft and some H5 height rises will occur tomorrow as the upper trough axis shifts over the upper midwest down through the DFW area. Have gone below guidance for high temperatures keeping values around or just below freezing for Friday afternoon.
Breezy northwest winds will develop in the wake of the trough during the afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates/mixing in cold advection, especially for western areas. Lingering clouds will decrease Friday night with strong subsidence in the wake of the departing trough as transient surface ridging slides across the Upper MS Valley.
The wave on the cold front creating the snow is related to the jet entrance region of departing 170 knot speed max on the polar jet, which is now over eastern Quebec.
East to southeast winds have above 15 mph in the Lower Keys, with 10 to 15 mph from Marathon through Ocean Reef with occasional gusts near 20 mph. 4 inches, several stable layers in the lower troposphere along with established subsidence aloft based near 625 mb. Strong high pressure centered north of Bermuda will remain in place while a deep trough responsible for widespread winter weather from the southern Plains through New England gradually drifts east. Some lulling of the winds will occur in the Upper Keys, and given strong sunshine and trajectory from the warmer Straits and Gulf Stream, highs perhaps on the low side of 80F for most of the Keys remains on track.
A bit of an increase in upper level ridging late in the period may allow temperatures to make a run at freezing but may be difficult to climb above with the extensive snowpack.
Winds have kept up through the day, as low pressure passes to our southeast (leading to an impactful winter storm out east) and we have a high pressure to our north, leading to a slight enhancement in the pressure gradient. Clearing skies this evening will leave us cold and clear tonight throughout the area, as high pressure slides through our north. Just as soon as the high pressure moves out, a weak clipper system shoots in from the northwest.
As the low moves east, winds will shift along the Coteau and produce some downsloping tonight. Where models continue to show less certainty about pops is across central SD behind the low. Combined with a good swath of mid level moistures in the upper trough, this could be enough to kick off a few light snow showers. A building ridge aloft will hold off the worst of the cold air as warmer air advects in from the west.
Strong high pressure over the western north Atlantic will relax its hold on the southeast U. coast as a deep trough responsible for much wintry weather across the eastern U.
although temperatures should be moderated a bit by an increase in westerly winds late in the evening as a weak warm front precedes another cool front for Friday. Temperatures behind this front will be notably warmer than today. expect dry weather to prevail as an oscillation between weak riding aloft and dry passing cold fronts in northwest flow overtakes the region.
Residual bands of light snow showers remain intact across portions of the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon, though will dissipate altogether in the next few hours as moist ascent becomes increasingly scant as the trough axis pivots east of the CWA. The combination of a clearing sky that will follow the departing trough and a shallow snowpack will cause temperatures to plummet into the low single-digits to perhaps a few degrees below zero, particularly across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. Northerly winds will remain weak at around 10 mph as an expansive, 1040 mb surface anticyclone encompasses the central U. Most of the snowpack across the CWA should erode tomorrow even if temperatures are a few degrees cooler.
We're closely watching surface temperatures in northwest Middle TN for below freezing temperatures to develop. Many places north of I-40 and west of I-65 have been hovering around or just above the freezing mark this morning, which has been good news for road conditions in our area. While the transition to all freezing rain is expected to occur in the northwest by 3pm, the colder air is moving so slowly eastward, it still appears that subfreezing surface temperatures in the Advisory area will hold off until closer to 7 or 8pm. As is common with ice events, bridges and overpasses will be the first to freeze, so take extra caution if driving anywhere this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight.
The upper level trough axis has almost passed through Kansas and will continue to bring snow, freezing rain and sleet to the eastern US. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures will be able to rebound into the upper 30s in north central KS and the lower 30s in east central Kansas due to the snow cover.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 43 26 44 29 / 100 30 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 41 23 41 26 / 90 50 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 35 39 23 41 25 / 100 40 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 46 21 38 23 / 90 70 10 0 10 NC.
154 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Current surface analysis has high pressure moving slowly across the Midwest with the PV anomaly following it eastward, putting the region in subsidence on the backside of the feature. Should start to see temperatures recover pretty quickly into tomorrow with daytime highs in the low 30s and 40s east of the Laramie Range and colder off to the west.
Surface ridging will move across the area tonight with light winds and clearing skies. This will help temperatures drop into the low single digits tonight/tomorrow morning. In general, the upper pattern features longwave ridging over the eastern Pacific and western North America with resulting downstream troughing over eastern North America. While upper troughing prevails over eastern North America, there will be periodic short wave troughs move southeast through the flow. Another area of clouds associated with weaker upper level trough will move over later this afternoon.
17Z surface analysis places a cold front from just east of Nashville, TN back through Monroe County, MS. A 15Z aircraft ACARS sounding near MEM indicated an 8C warm nose present around 900 mb while surface temperatures are mostly below freezing. and that would mean more sleet than freezing rain for some portions of the region. Bumped up the totals a little over the area as the freezing line moved in earlier and is starting to stall over the Memphis area. Wind chills at daybreak Friday will range from the upper single digits over the MO bootheel, to the mid teens in Memphis, to the lower 20s in northeast MS. Regarding melting, sun should break out across the northwest portions of the region Friday, but temps will struggle to get above freezing.
A restrictive and variable taf cycle continues for all sites as moisture increases across the region ahead of an approaching cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 40 45 26 44 / 90 100 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 37 42 23 41 / 90 100 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 35 40 23 41 / 90 100 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 42 47 21 38 / 100 90 60 10 0 NC.
Lingering moisture and lift from the 850 mb trough axis will result in additional precipitation late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Shallow sub-freezing temperatures and shallow moisture will make the most likely precipitation type of freezing drizzle.
There has been a bit more sleet than freezing rain across the western and northern portions of the Ice Storm Warning along the Ohio River into the Wabash Valley. Freezing rain accretions of 0. Expecting an additional 1-3" of snow and sleet through tonight, for a storm total of 2 to 7", with the highest totals in the PDC-MDH-AJC areas of southeast MO and southern IL. Radar shows a dry slot working its way into the Lower Ohio Valley. The gradually moving sub-freezing layer will advance southeast, allowing for a transition to all snow except in our far southeast by tonight. High temperatures will reach near or a few degrees below freezing, ranging from 26 to 32 degrees. As high pressure builds over the region Friday night, temperatures will tank.
/issued 711 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022/ Ridging both aloft and surface resides over the area today then begins to slip off to the east this evening. High pressure across the waters from the Atlantic.
Tonight, high pressure will be building across the area while clouds slowly clear from west to east.
Currently, long wave trough remains over the region with an embedded wave approaching from the northwest. Associated cold front will then transition winds to the northwest and will become breezy for a period, before high pressure settles back in during the day Friday. Warmer southwest on Friday where southerly flow develops, but colder elsewhere when compared to today thanks to the CAA moving in behind the cold front.
A cold front sweeps across the region on Friday bringing another round of rainfall. High pressure builds over the weekend for a return of drier and slightly warmer conditions across the area.
1014 AM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Broad upper trough across much of the CONUS is centered over the northern Plains south to NM. Canadian high pressure is pushing into the upper Midwest, with return flow setting up across the CWA. Southerly flow will advect in warmer air, with highs reaching the 20s to lower 30s. Upper ridging will build in Friday, as temperatures warm into the 30s to lower 40s.
As high pressure builds into the region and winds become nearly calm, excellent radiational cooling conditions will develop over the fresh snow cover and allow low temperatures Friday night to drop below zero everywhere across central and southeast Illinois. Once the high shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley, southerly return flow will bring a warming trend for the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures are already crashing below zero across the lower elevations of the plains with Greeley and Limon the two coldest spots thus far. An upper level ridge moves into the region with northerly flow aloft tonight. Clear skies and recent snow cover will support another cold night with lows in the single digits below zero across the plains and teens below zero over the high country. Expect even colder temperatures in the high mountain valleys, similar to last night. With a ridge over the region, Friday will be mostly sunny with warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 30s over the plains and foothills. Upper ridging is expected for the CWA Friday night.
Amplified ridging over the west coast will contribute to a deepening trough over the central U.
950 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 SE wind flow will keep temps quite mild with mins ranging from the lower 60s interior to the upper 60s along the immediate coast. Attention wl focus upstream toward approaching frontal boundary as a large upper trough moves into the Southeast U. Although dry conditions expected one more day Friday with the surface Atlantic ridge axis across the Treasure Coast producing veering southerly winds. Expect above normal afternoon temps in the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. A sea breeze is likely to develop along the Space and Treasure Coasts bringing cooler temps and breezy southeast winds during the afternoon.
423 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 An upper level ridge moves into the region with northerly flow aloft tonight. Clear skies and recent snow cover will support another cold night with lows in the single digits below zero across the plains and teens below zero over the high country. Expect even colder temperatures in the high mountain valleys, similar to last night. With a ridge over the region, Friday will be mostly sunny with warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 30s over the plains and foothills. Upper ridging is expected for the CWA Friday night.
A weak disturbance will increase NW winds this afternoon then turn clockwise as Canadian high pressure drops into North Dakota from southern Saskatchewan. Afterwards, the upper trough will push far enough east allowing a mild Pacific airmass to take control. Discussion: A cold front has brought NW winds to the area that are expected to increase this afternoon then decrease and turn clockwise overnight.
(This evening through Friday) A vort max/PV anomaly associated with a mid/upper-level trough across the eastern Texas panhandle (east of Amarillo) is progged to move eastward near I-40. The highest probabilities/snowfall amounts are forecast near I-40 (along the track of the vort max). As a result--temperatures should remain below freezing for nearly the entire area. The exception might be parts of west central Oklahoma where snowfall was minimal--temperatures could very briefly warm above freezing.
Heading into tomorrow, temperatures only warm into the lower 20s early afternoon before a quick moving weather system and associated cold front sweeps across the area bringing a chance for light snow and flurries mid afternoon.
A brief period of dry conditions this evening and tonight before a cold front sweeps across the region Friday, bringing another round of rainfall to Western Washington. High pressure builds over the weekend for a return of drier and slightly warmer conditions across the area.
603 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 (This evening through Friday) This afternoon, as an upper trough over New Mexico approaches, we'll see some occasional snow flurries, but no additional accumulation is expected. So western areas will be coldest (10 degrees or lower), while eastern areas will be several degrees warmer (10 to 15 degrees). In the morning, road conditions will remain hazardous with icy conditions in place from the re-freezing mentioned earlier. For the rest of Friday, any lingering cloud cover will clear out, allowing sunshine to return as the main trough axis finally starts to move eastward. Additional sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow more melting to occur tomorrow afternoon.
Surface ridging will move across the area tonight with light winds and clearing skies. This will help temperatures drop into the low single digits tonight/tomorrow morning. In general, the upper pattern features longwave ridging over the eastern Pacific and western North America with resulting downstream troughing over eastern North America. While upper troughing prevails over eastern North America, there will be periodic short wave troughs move southeast through the flow.
20Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Eastern Kentucky, southwest back through Northern/Central Alabama, and into Southern Mississippi. Precipitation east of the Mississippi River has diminished to sprinkles/freezing drizzle as a narrow dry slot overhead has worked into portions of the area. Short term model soundings still indicate the freezing rain will gradually begin to transition over to sleet and perhaps some very light snow and sleet transitioning to snow west of the Mississippi River before ending late tonight. Highs will only warm above freezing over North Mississippi with most areas struggling to reach freezing.
Parallel flow aloft continues to inhibit decisive easterly movement of the baroclinic/pcpn-focus zone, but the cold will win as the longwave trough continues to dig ewd through Friday. Widespread wintry activity will have cleared to the east, however, an approaching trough axis with very cold 850mb air in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) moving from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley may result in shallow unorganized and light snow showers through the night, particularly in the ridges where upsloping will contribute to the lift needed to squeeze out some dendrites. The weekend looks dry but with gradual temperature moderation as warm advctn ensues ahead of a nrn Plains trough. The upcoming work week looks seasonable as broad longwave troughing becomes established across the eastern half of the CONUS. Restrictions are psbl again Fri night/Sat with an upr trough.
304 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 Through Tomorrow: The earlier threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding has move south and east of our forecast area as the cold front has pushed east through the region. This morning's freezing rain and sleet also remained mostly north and west of our forecast area - touching a portion of Bolivar County with light ice accumulations before melting occurred. High-res and global model guidance suggest this band of precip should gradually dissipate as the impulse moves through the region, but falling temperatures overnight mean any light precip could be in the form of light freezing rain, light sleet, or even a few flurries where temperatures fall below freezing. Motorists in the region should be mindful of the potential for black ice if puddles stick around tonight and temperatures fall below freezing.
332 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 1040 mb arctic high pressure centered over the Northwest Territories of Canada this afternoon will move swiftly southeast tonight and be centered over wrn MN Friday afternoon. A backdoor cold front will drop through ncntl Nebraska Friday morning. The model blend forecast is 1 to 3 degrees warmer than the guidance blend which often is too cool during warm air advection events.
Weak high pressure is expected to allow for dry conditions.
409 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Upper ridging is building over the west coast, as the trough axis progresses through the central CONUS.
The very stubborn upper ridge pattern remains over the west coast. This upper level ridge will flatten slightly and shift further offshore Friday.
Another cold morning with sub-freezing temperatures are likely in the central portion of the San Joaquin valley on Friday. IR imagery is showing an upper low pressure system currently centered off the NW CA coast near 40N/126W.
314 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 Cold front progressing across the area, near a Hattiesburg to Slidell to Houma line at 3 PM CST. Upper ridging along the west coast.
This the lctn of the convective activity associated with the cold front. The second area of rains is movg into southeast Texas at this some sleet and freezing rains/drizzle psbl thru the eve into the overnight hrs as the band progresses eastward.
301 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 An upper level ridge moves into the region with northerly flow aloft tonight. Clear skies and recent snow cover will support another cold night with lows in the single digits below zero across the plains and teens below zero over the high country. Expect even colder temperatures in the high mountain valleys, similar to last night. With a ridge over the region, Friday will be mostly sunny with warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 30s over the plains and foothills. Upper ridging is expected for the CWA Friday night.
Nevertheless, parallel flow aloft will inhibit easterly movement of the boundary and the warm advection in that baroclinic zone will maintain the environment for freezing rain and sleet this evening with cold advection on the sfc shifting that threat southward. Widespread wintry activity will have cleared to the east, however, an approaching trough axis with very cold 850mb air in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) moving from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley may result in shallow unorganized and light snow showers through the night, particularly in the ridges where upsloping will contribute to the lift needed to squeeze out some dendrites. The remainder of the weekend looks cold and dry as mid-level ridging moves overhead.
The last remnants of the departing low pressure system were slowly exiting the southeastern corner of the state this afternoon, while the rest of the region enjoyed mostly sunny skies. As for Friday, plan on plenty of sun helping to warm things up into the 20s for the San Luis Valley, and into the lower 30s for the plains. Given all the snow cover as well as the extremely cold start in the morning, felt that high temps will struggle to get much past freezing so opted to go below guidance for most locations.
IFR/LIFR conditions will likely continue well into Friday morning, with freezing rain affecting TAF sites at times.
251 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 An upper level ridge moves into the region with northerly flow aloft tonight. Clear skies and recent snow cover will support another cold night with lows in the single digits below zero across the plains and teens below zero over the high country. Expect even colder temperatures in the high mountain valleys, similar to last night. With a ridge over the region, Friday will be mostly sunny with warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 30s over the plains and foothills. Upper ridging is expected for the CWA Friday night.