Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm frontal boundary has pushed northward across the region, now extending from north of the Millington NAS in western TN, to north of Tullahoma and far western NC. Temperatures south of this boundary for the most part across the Tennessee Valley have warmed into the low/mid 70s, despite a layer of stratus persisting over the region. Forecaster confidence for the afternoon remains on the low side with a variety of solutions posed by the CAM and lower resolution models. The higher resolution output, especially the Hi-RES NMM was painting precip across the area this afternoon. The NAM appears to be a bit slower with the line arriving Sunday morning after 12Z in northwest AL, possibly with the lagging upper trough axis.
253 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Mean layer ridging is centered over the Florida Keys, with 500 mb heights measured at 594 dm this morning from the KKEY RAOB. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Mean layer ridging will control the weather for the next several days.
919 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Dense fog has dissipated so the highlight was allowed to expire. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s over nern CO.
Temps in the lower 80s and dewpoints near 70 should support mixed layer CAPE near 2500 J/kG over north MS, southwest TN and east central AR through sunset.
Upper trough stretched from sw to ne over NM at 17Z will slowly shift south and eastward, with potential for showers and a short lived thunderstorm or two generally along and east of the trough axis, which is forecast to exit east central and se NM by about 28/06Z. High pressure will build in on Sunday and warmer temperatures along with light winds will result.
Sunday: An increasingly zonal mid-level flow regime over the northern Rockies will induce a deepening lee trough over the adjacent High Plains.
211 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 High pressure will build into the area tonight allowing winds to diminish while remaining light and westerly. Some locations could see frost with temperatures near freezing, especially those in central KS while those in southeast Kansas bottom out in the upper 30s to near 40. As high pressure translates over the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley area on Sunday southwesterly winds will help boost temperatures into the upper 60s/around 70 in some locations.
A cold front is near the western edge of the forecast area and extends roughly from Parsons, KS northeastward to Harrisonville. By mid to late evening, most of the stronger storms will shift east of the forecast area as cooler air spreads over the region behind the passing cold front.
The flow aloft on Sunday will transition to more of a west/northwesterly component by the afternoon with a developing lee trough over eastern CO.
(This evening through Sunday) Cold front, already south and east of I-44 this afternoon will continue to push south and east this evening.
After exiting our eastern zones, dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures arrive, continuing through Sunday night.
340 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A low pressure system will bring showers and storms to the area this evening followed by dry and noticeably cooler weather Sunday.
This is all in advance of a cold front that'll be moving into the area later tonight and off the coast Sunday morning. Precip should mostly end with the front and as cooler air deepens, but some guidance still hinting at the possibility of some sct areas of -ra ahead of the H85 front into late morning & early afternoon across southern parts. Things clear out areawide Sun afternoon and night as high pressure builds into the region.
228 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Cold front currently along and just south of the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK is expected to accelerate eastward during the late afternoon hours and clear northwest Arkansas by mid evening. Currently pockets of agitated Cu are noted along and in advance of the boundary with the 12z KFWD sampling how shallow the low level moisture is with westward extent.
The associated cold front is expected to move across the CWA 09-12z Sunday. Cooler Sunday night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
1206 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front moving into northwest Oklahoma this morning will continue to move southeast through the day.
Then, a low pressure system will bring showers and storms to the area this evening followed by dry and noticeably cooler weather Sunday. Modest return flow develops ahead of this sys and in time sufficient low level moisture to init storms along the cold front toward sunset west. Nevertheless progressive nature of parent trough will drive decaying showers quickly east overnight followed by a wind chilly Sunday within shallow but intense post frontal cold advection bubble. Otherwise bifurcating srn stream energy may phase into late week upper trough development across New England with a turn toward much cooler and dry conditions here thereafter. This is ahead of a developing low pressure system right overhead west of IN-15 tonight, which brings in increased moisture just out front of its cold front moving through.
(This evening through Sunday) At this hour, a cold front was slowly dropping southward through the South Plains and the Big Country. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the low 80s, and were in the 70s behind the front. By tonight, the cold front will push through all of West Central Texas, causing winds to shift out of the north and increase to 15-25 mph. Lows tonight behind the front will be in the mid to upper 40s as a slightly cooler airmass is advected in from the north. Across the Big Country, winds will become south and this should limit lows to the lower and mid 40s.
High pressure will bring warmer afternoon temperatures and clearing skies across northern Arizona this weekend.
302 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A strong cold front will pass through the area Sunday afternoon bringing showers and the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Warm air advection continues, as evident on our 12Z sounding, with the warm front responsible for this swiftly proceeding north into the Ouachita Mountains.
Looking for some sct shra & iso tsra begin developing later this afternoon from the Arklatex to just north of the CLL/UTS terminals with the aid of heating and and approaching cold front. Think IFR/MVFR cigs in advance will lift a few hours after fropa as cooler air deepens.
Cooler and drier conditions are expected on Sunday, with highs in the 50s. A warm front is positioned from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with a cold front stretched from the center of the low to the southern Plains. As the cold front continues to push east over the next few hours, storms are anticipated to become reinforced. Instability has grown since the release of the sounding, with SPC mesoscale analysis depicting about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE spread across a good portion of the area as dewpoints are sitting in the low to mid 50s. High temperatures will be on the cooler side on Sunday, yet still seasonable.
258 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A strong cold front will cross Tennessee tonight then cross our area around midday to early afternoon Sunday.
Active convection is ongoing along the warm front, down around Memphis, where the the gradient to 1000+ MUCAPEs exists. Some 80F readings will not be out of the question, and as such, we prefer our inherited max temp forecast, which is a little warmer than the new guidance. With the northern stream driving a cold front into/across the FA tonight, we see the short range models light up active convection along/ahead of its entry. The moderate risk, like the higher svr chance, is displaced to the south and east of the FA. Gusts into the 20s, near 30 mph north, are forecast, with a cooler 50s/30s end of weekend airmass. High pressure will be in control to start the week.
Aviation concerns today are associated with the cold front pushing through the area currently, including scattered thunderstorm potential and a shift to gusty northerly post-frontal winds. The focus in the short term today is the potential for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening in association with a cold front moving through the region.
Synoptically, area of high pressure will continue to dominate across the area through Sunday before it is suppressed south by an approaching low pressure trough.
A warm front ran east southeast from the low into northern Indiana while a cold front ran south into central Missouri. A secondary cold front ran from the arrowhead of Minnesota into southeast Nebraska. Dew points were in the 50s south of the warm front with 40s behind the first cold front. Dew points in the 20s and 30s were across the northern Plains behind the second cold front. Tonight clouds will persist across the area until the secondary cold front comes through the area after midnight. On Sunday plenty of sunshine should be seen across the area along with breezy and cooler conditions.
253 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Broad trough will continue to push across the region this evening. Flat ridging aloft will end precipiation and diminish clouds across the CWA tonight. Some increased clouds may also be found as an area of mid to upper level moisture moves through along the upper level warm front.
the pattern featured an upper trough extending from Manitoba south thru the plains states with ridging along the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front which crossed our region last night had reached southeast KS. Radar mosaic shows an area of rain associated with the upper trough edging southeast into northeast Neb and cannot rule out a few sprinkles this aftn in our northeast zones on the southern edge of this activity.
Clear skies and warmer conditions today with an upper ridge building into the Pacific NW.
302 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 This afternoon, scattered showers continue to track southeast through the region, aided by ascent from the broader upper trough and upper jet streak digging into the Northern Plains. Skies should eventually clear out except perhaps for residual cirrus, and with 850mb temperatures dropping to 0 to -5C overnight, it will be a chilly night with lows falling to near to below the freezing mark. Dry, quiet weather takes hold starting Sunday as strong upper ridging and warm air advection build into the Northern Plains.
Cooler and drier conditions are expected on Sunday, with highs in the 50s. Cold front has reached the I-70 corridor late this evening, with strong to severe storms along the front in an environment of strong shear and moderately strong instability. A warm front is positioned from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with a cold front stretched from the center of the low to the southern Plains. As the cold front continues to push east over the next few hours, storms are anticipated to become reinforced. Instability has grown since the release of the sounding, with SPC mesoscale analysis depicting about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE spread across a good portion of the area as dewpoints are sitting in the low to mid 50s. High temperatures will be on the cooler side on Sunday, yet still seasonable.
This activity is expected to continue until a cold front moves through the area from west to east. After exiting our eastern zones, dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures arrive, continuing through Sunday night.
655 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 (This evening through Sunday) At this hour, a cold front was slowly dropping southward through the South Plains and the Big Country. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the low 80s, and were in the 70s behind the front. By tonight, the cold front will push through all of West Central Texas, causing winds to shift out of the north and increase to 15-25 mph. Lows tonight behind the front will be in the mid to upper 40s as a slightly cooler airmass is advected in from the north. Across the Big Country, winds will become south and this should limit lows to the lower and mid 40s.
822 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Cancelled the high wind warning for GDP Mtns and wind advisory for Culberson Co. /issued 233 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ An upper trough moving into NM this morning will pass over Far West TX by late afternoon and across the area tonight. As the parent trough over the Great Lakes pushes east Sunday the southern end of it will shear out as high pressure builds in from the west.
648 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Cold front, already south and east of I-44 this afternoon will continue to push south and east this evening.
The bulk of the forcing is moving northeast with the system, but a few light showers may develop on the backside of the low across portions of the forecast area. Sunday, thermal ridge will shift eastward, placing Iowa in an area of mid to upper- level northwesterly flow.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently located along a cold front that extends from near KFYV to KMLC. /Issued 228 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ Cold front currently along and just south of the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK is expected to accelerate eastward during the late afternoon hours and clear northwest Arkansas by mid evening. Currently pockets of agitated Cu are noted along and in advance of the boundary with the 12z KFWD sampling how shallow the low level moisture is with westward extent.
A positive-tilt upper-level trough extending from the Great Lakes through the southern Plains will move eastward and drag a cold front into the Deep South. The low-level ridge axis will be forced to the southern half of Florida in response with a south to southwest wind at the surface. And, with the S to SW winds at the surface, it will also be warmer along the coast (mid to upper 80s) with the sea breeze being held back a little longer, especially across northern Brevard County and up through Volusia County, where a couple of spots may hit 90 degrees. Southerly winds early Sun increase and veer SWRLY, then WRLY late with approach of weak trough.
Behind yesterday's trough passage, that lingered a little long this morning, partly cloudy skies and a west to northwest flow have set in with winds gusting into the 20s and low 30s across southeast Wyoming and the west Nebraska Panhandle. The north side of a ridge will continue to build into the region under this northwesterly flow, however, flow will be flattened by a trough off the Pacific coastline. By Sunday night, the aforementioned upper trough will drop south into northwest Wyoming increasing the surface gradients across areas west of the Laramie Range. So, what started as a mountain wave will then transition to a bora wind event, especially as the very strong front associated with the trough approaches the outer reaches of Carbon County.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 68 40 65 46 / 80 90 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 67 37 62 41 / 80 90 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 67 36 62 41 / 80 90 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 66 34 61 38 / 80 90 20 0 10 NC.
837 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Very warm conditions persist across west central and southwest Florida as high pressure surface and aloft persist over the area. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through mid week as a cold front stalls across north central Florida on Sunday.
High pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend, resulting in dry conditions with a warming trend.
1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 As of 10pm, all storms from the afternoon have shifted north of the area, and we sit clear of any precipitation south of a warm front currently producing severe storms and flooding across central Tennessee. To our west, tornadic supercells have formed ahead of a cold front and are currently tracking in a line from Clarksville TN to Memphis and to Shreveport LA. The cold front will rocket eastward across the region in the late night and early Sunday morning. With cooler air filtering in, high temperatures for Palm Sunday should be ~15 degrees cooler than today. The cooler air will make itself more noted Sun night, as lows chill into the mid/upper 30s.
831 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather then rules during the early part of the new work week under high pressure. Thereafter, a trough digging into the upper Mississippi Valley will increase the advection of warmth and moisture into the region, resulting in a return of cloud cover. A warm front associated with deepening Great Lakes low pressure will push northward across the region tonight. The focus will be on Tucker County, WV as noted in the SPC slight risk, but the window for severe potential should be confined mainly to the morning hours ahead of a quickly advancing cold front. The sfc cold front should complete its passage by Sunday afternoon, though scattered showers should continue under upper troughing.
CIGS are expected to lower into IFR later tonight ahead of and in association with an approaching cold front that will also be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler drier weather is forecasted for Sunday night with lows mainly in the 40s.
Expect a continued downward trend in coverage and intensity next couple of hours as high pressure builds over the area at the surface and aloft. Broad trough will continue to push across the region this evening. Flat ridging aloft will end precipiation and diminish clouds across the CWA tonight. Some increased clouds may also be found as an area of mid to upper level moisture moves through along the upper level warm front.
813 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather then rules during the early part of the new work week under high pressure. Thereafter, a trough digging into the upper Mississippi Valley will increase the advection of warmth and moisture into the region, resulting in a return of cloud cover. A warm front associated with deepening Great Lakes low pressure will push northward across the region tonight. The focus will be on Tucker County, WV as noted in the SPC slight risk, but the window for severe potential should be confined mainly to the morning hours ahead of a quickly advancing cold front. The sfc cold front should complete its passage by Sunday afternoon, though scattered showers should continue under upper troughing.
632 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 This afternoon, scattered showers continue to track southeast through the region, aided by ascent from the broader upper trough and upper jet streak digging into the Northern Plains. Skies should eventually clear out except perhaps for residual cirrus, and with 850mb temperatures dropping to 0 to -5C overnight, it will be a chilly night with lows falling to near to below the freezing mark. Dry, quiet weather takes hold starting Sunday as strong upper ridging and warm air advection build into the Northern Plains.
Cold front has moved through the remainder of the area though dewpoints still in the 40s and decent mixing allowing for modest and very shallow SBCAPE to develop in northeastern Kansas.
1027 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Currently - A ridge extending westwards from the Atlantic, across Florida, and through the Gulf of Mexico is producing moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters this evening. Deep layered ridging remains overhead and is evident in this evenings sounding. The healthy flow is slowing temperature falls, which are currently in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period with the ridge remaining across Florida. A ridge across Florida is maintaining mostly moderate easterly breezes.
853 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The cold front which triggered and killed the storms this evening has pushed its way to the Red River at this time leaving behind gusty north to northwesterly winds across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
Also, northwest winds were decreasing and will become light tonight as high pressure settles over the region. The upper trough will exit to the east this evening as upper ridging builds in. At the sfc, winds will diminish quickly after sunset with high pressure briefly transitioning over the area. Winds will be breezy by afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The good mixing will help send temps up into the lower 70s along and west of the Missouri along with the waa under the ridge. At the upper levels, southwest flow sits overhead as the broad ridge shifts eastward and upper troughing digs into the rockies.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ An upper trough moving into NM this morning will pass over Far West TX by late afternoon and across the area tonight. As the parent trough over the Great Lakes pushes east Sunday the southern end of it will shear out as high pressure builds in from the west.
Southwest flow will increase in ahead of an approaching cold front through Sunday, resulting in warm temperatures with highs in the 70s throughout the lower valleys. Increasing high clouds Sun afternoon with a cold front moving through late Sun into Mon, mountains becoming obscured with MVFR/IFR snow showers behind the cold front for a few hours. Surface winds S-SE 5-10kt becoming SW- SE 15-25kt in the afternoon, shifting to the NW 20-30kt behind cold front.
The drying will continue overnight, leading to sunny skies and warmer temperatures for Sunday. The flow aloft on Sunday will transition to more of a west/northwesterly component by the afternoon with a developing lee trough over eastern CO.
638 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 High pressure will build into the area tonight allowing winds to diminish while remaining light and westerly. Some locations could see frost with temperatures near freezing, especially those in central KS while those in southeast Kansas bottom out in the upper 30s to near 40. As high pressure translates over the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley area on Sunday southwesterly winds will help boost temperatures into the upper 60s/around 70 in some locations.
Sunday will bring another sunny and mild day for most of northwest California, before high pressure gives way to a cold front.
900 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Convective development has largely waned for the evening though some isolated triggering near the lifted warm front and possible weak upper impulses could still occur and a few strong cells with hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out in north GA. The surface warm front currently just south of Atlanta should continue to lift to the GA/TN border today. The warm front drifting north of the area could give us a brief break with lower pops overnight. the approach of a cold front will increase the chances across the northwest. but should be cooler across much of the area on Sunday.
The high pressure will move east today as southerly winds begin to increase. There is a warm front that will move into central SD later today, and there are some signs from hi-res models that there may be a relative "lull" in speeds along the front.
(This evening through Sunday) At this hour, a cold front was slowly dropping southward through the South Plains and the Big Country. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the low 80s, and were in the 70s behind the front. By tonight, the cold front will push through all of West Central Texas, causing winds to shift out of the north and increase to 15-25 mph. Lows tonight behind the front will be in the mid to upper 40s as a slightly cooler airmass is advected in from the north.
/issued 1031 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ As of 10 PM, the cold front is situated from far NW LA southwestward toward College Station TX. Also adjusted Min T upward slightly, along with hourly temps/dewpoints which are running a few degrees warmer than anticipated. CIGS are expected to lower into IFR later tonight ahead of and in association with an approaching cold front that will also be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler drier weather is forecasted for Sunday night with lows mainly in the 40s.