Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface moisture flux limited but increasing clouds should hold minimums on the higher side of the 50s vs lower.
100 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 100 PM CDT High pressure centered over west central Illinois this afternoon will be in control, continuing the quiet weather conditions as the high shifts slowly east on Wednesday. A lake breeze will keep shore areas slightly cooler once again.
1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure now centered southeast of the region, with an area of low pressure over southeast Alberta. Northwesterly flow will continue to keep the area cooler than average through the rest of the week, with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The upper level wave to the northwest of the region and an associated cold front will slide southeast across the region late tonight and Wednesday. The cold front will pass through most of the CWA during the morning and across south central SD during the afternoon hours, with breezy northwest winds developing behind it.
A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern states through the period. Ahead of this trough, a weak front has stalled across portions of the southeast states. Lows remain very muggy, in the low and mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
316 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build in briefly tonight. A cold front will move into the region tomorrow before it stalls out and weakens.
Expect daytime highs to be 3 to 5 deg warmer than yesterday, generally in the lower 80s.
This favors slightly below normal temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s.
This pattern will result in dry and warmer weather as we head into Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little below normal with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Weather will be quiet and pleasant with seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures through a majority of this period as high pressure remains entrenched over the state. Lows will be a bit warmer than last night, in the upper 50s with southerly winds returning.
137 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Quiet 24 hours ahead with high pressure over the Upper Midwest moving east to the Ohio Valley region.
Temperatures a little warmer today and Wednesday with some sunshine but still below seasonal averages.
the Upper/mid level trough will continue over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move into the area from the Upstate and stall tonight. Diurnally induced showers and thunderstorms will then by likely during the afternoon, aided by the weak waves moving along the front as it begins to lift back to the north as a warm front.
Series of vort maxes and reinforcing cold fronts are shown to pass into the region keeping below normal highs, good moisture, and potential for showers/thunderstorms through the short range period. A trough remains over southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes region, while weak ridging persists over the southwestern CONUS. On Wednesday night, a front approaches the High Plains from the north.
450 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Upper trough continues across the eastern CONUS with relatively weak northwest flow across the Great Plains. Upper ridging sits across the western CONUS with the main axis just offshore the Pac coast. and on the surface a trough is now pushing through northeast WY. KUDX radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing within the deep southerly flow just ahead of the trough. the focus of convection will be the trough as it continues to slowly push eastward. Short term guidance shows convection continuing east of the trough. and eventually a line of storms developing along the trough as it pushes eastward late this afternoon into the evening.
High pressure continues to dominate at 3 AM CDT with clear skies and light winds across the upper midwest with temperatures in 50s with some light fog in low lying areas developing. Upstream energy continues to show little change in the next 36 hours with some slightly warmer temperatures through Wednesday. Latest run 00z models seemingly correctly trending slower with organization of upstream short wave trof late in the day. Highs generally in the low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s with some non-diurnal trends after midnight west of the MS RVR.
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Upper trough continues across the eastern CONUS with relatively weak northwest flow across the Great Plains. Upper ridging sits across the western CONUS with the main axis just offshore the Pac coast. and on the surface a trough is now pushing through northeast WY. KUDX radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing within the deep southerly flow just ahead of the trough. the focus of convection will be the trough as it continues to slowly push eastward. Short term guidance shows convection continuing east of the trough. and eventually a line of storms developing along the trough as it pushes eastward late this afternoon into the evening.
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure centered over Ohio will keep dry weather across the region tonight and Wednesday.
Will keep the high chance to likely pops going across the area later tonight through midday Wednesday. Have gone a little cooler toward central Kansas Wednesday afternoon where clouds/precip will linger. Highs should be several degrees warmer in far southwest Kansas where Elkhart should hit the mid 80s or so.
320 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Broad upper trough over the Midwest and eastern states with a low amplitude upper ridge over the desert southwest has west- northwesterly flow aloft over the state. Expect warmer temperatures but less PW values, especially over the plains. The high pressure ridge now off the Pacific Northwest Coast will gradually move into the Great Basin and move just West of Colorado during the weekend, but there will still be ample moisture for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
The associated 850 hPa ridge will expand across the area and provide for dry conditions until storm chances return by Wednesday.
143 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 The upper Great Lakes stays in broad northwest flow in an upper level trough through this forecast period. The best chance for widespread precip will by Thu into early Fri as a low pressure system moves south of the area.
148 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A cold front will slip south into the area today and stall. Upper/mid level trough over the eastern CONUS will shift toward the coast today. A cold front will move into the area from the Upstate today and stall east this evening. High temperatures are forecast several degrees below normal, in the lower to middle 80s. Diurnally induced showers and thunderstorms will then by likely during the afternoon, aided by the weak waves moving along the front as it begins to lift back to the north as a warm front.
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure over the Upper Midwest brought clear skies and comfortable temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Light south winds should hold temps a few degrees warmer than lows were early this morning (Tuesday) when we were in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
High pressure centered to the southeast of Wisconsin will keep very pleasant weather in place tonight and Wednesday.
An associated cold front leads the trough, shifting into eastern Wisconsin by Thu evening. Nose of the low level moisture transport pushes into central MN Wed evening, working northeast, ahead of the trough and along the front. The GFS works on some ridge building for the area while the EC keeps the region in northwest/north flow a loft, amplifying the ridge over the central part of the U. Obvious impacts to temps (warmer in the GFS), and potential for showers/storms by mid week (GFS again). Additional high clouds, associated with a short wave trough, will move through the area tonight.
Weak closed low across northern California with the Monsoon high suppressed across northern Mexico will leave our region sandwiched in a dry southwesterly flow for the next few days.
Models showing the low drifting S with the front and then resurging N through midweek. Meanwhile, the visible satellite and mosaic radar imagery depict a broad but weak but stacked H850-500 low over SE TX as well which is attached to a weak upper trough extending NE into extreme Nrn LA atop the sfc front in place. The short term progs are in reasonable agreement this morning with additional convection developing this afternoon as the stacked SE TX low drifts E into the lower Sabine Valley, establishing weak convergence in the destabilizing air mass near and just S of the H850-700 trough and in VC of the stationary sfc front.
Looking aloft, the mean trof is still making passage this morning, and will carry on thru the remainder of the morning hours.
The midlevel circulation is forecast to drift east towards the TX-LA border as the subtropical ridge of high pressure currently centered over far southern AZ and NM expands eastward. Although soils will remain somewhat saturated over the region, we elected to go a degree above model guidance as it has generally underpredicted temperatures under ridging patterns this summer.
227 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Quiet 24 hours ahead with high pressure over the Upper Midwest moving east to the Ohio Valley region.
The upper level low that has been responsible for the increased rainfall the past few days is forecast to begin exiting the region during the day on Wednesday with an upper level ridge building in behind it. Temperatures will also begin to return toward normal with highs in the low to mid 90s by the weekend. An upper level low pressure area will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters through Tuesday night before exiting the region.
At 19Z, the cold front was located from a KHLN to KLWT to KGGW line moving slowly S. Otherwise, models continued to hit the high terrain and areas downstream with thunderstorms this evening so kept PoPs over these areas. Expect showers to linger over and near the high terrain overnight as the low-level flow turns NE. A cooler airmass combined with mixing to 750 mb will result in highs in the 70s to around 80.
The cold Front should begin to return to the north sometime this afternoon. Meanwhile, Water Vapor Satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis indicates a longwave trough located from Quebec back through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are predominantly around 70 degrees to the lower 70s.
1247 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Early this morning high pressure was centered near Sioux City, IA and a weak cool front was positioned from near Hudson Bay across northwest Ontario and into southern Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan. Nudged temperatures across our southern forecast area a little warmer overnight with minimum values in the upper 50s south to the low 50s northeast. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler with highs from the upper 60s northeast to the upper 70s over northwest Wisconsin.
Otherwise, return flow will increase around the back side of the high with an area of mid level warm advection developing over the western High Plains this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in this warm advection pattern and spread northeast tonight as the low level jet increases. Thunderstorm chances increase across the entire area Wednesday as the warm air advection regime shifts east and a weak upper level trough drops through the region.
Isolated showers possible Wednesday afternoon with slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the valleys of Rutland/Windsor counties.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday or possibly a couple degrees warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will drift south/southeast today, allowing southerly winds to develop as a trough develops over the High Plains.
318 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Rather large and broad mid/upper level trough in place across North America with a sharp ridge aligned along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure transits the Ohio Valley from west to east through the period. A frontal boundary draped across the deep south morphs into an inverted trough and shifts northward through the Commonwealth Wednesday. COOP MOS is advertising mid 50s in our cooler valleys tonight.
622 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build in briefly tonight. A cold front will move into the region tomorrow before it stalls out and weakens.
Satellite imagery shows some showers and thunderstorms development across the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico and there is a hint of a weak disturbance moving across the southern Rockies. Then, the upper-level ridge will slowly migrate east into west- central Texas Tuesday into Wednesday, and that will tend to shunt the best rain chances off to our north.
Beginning late Wednesday, the western states ridge of high pressure will begin to try and move back toward the east.
110 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine today. A ridge of high pressure builds tonight.
Weak back door cold front will continue to progress through the CWA today increasing moisture and keeping temperatures below normal.
219 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 100 PM CDT High pressure centered over west central Illinois this afternoon will be in control, continuing the quiet weather conditions as the high shifts slowly east on Wednesday. A lake breeze will keep shore areas slightly cooler once again. Castro 218 PM CDT Broad upper-level troughing is expected to dominate across much of the Great Lakes Region through the period.
Cold front is south of the state, with mostly east to northeasterly winds at the surface between 7-12 knots. One common factor in the fcst wl cont to be cooler than normal temps thru the PD.
This interesting feature has resulted in some high rainfall rates as it has slowly chugged along, leaving some of the highest rainfall totals we've seen today in its wake.
On Wednesday, a cold front will move through the northwestern half of the forecast area. The focus will be near the slowly advancing cold front.
Ridge axis north of the area will produce a more east-southeast low level flow across the region tomorrow, with drier mid level air working in within the onshore flow. Highs will continue to range from the low 90s along the coast to low- mid 90s interior.
Low- level temperatures look to remain relatively cool, which will keep afternoon temperatures seasonably cooler with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than early this morning with lows in the low 60s.
1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure to the north will keep northerly flow in the region which will in turn keep the temperatures below normal though Wednesday.
246 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will slowly shift east of Illinois through tomorrow, but it will remain our primary influence on the sensible weather. Highs tomorrow will rebound nicely into the lower 80s, as fair weather cumulus develop from late morning through the afternoon.
A upper level trough center across northern California will eject a series of weak weather disturbances across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through midweek.
349 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Isolated showers this afternoon will dissipate by early evening along with most of the low cloud cover.
Model objective analysis nicely shows a short wave/PV trough from the eastern Great Lakes into Iowa, but an extremely dry airmass has resulted in minimal sensible weather with only a small patch of mid clouds in far SW Iowa. The H85/H7 ridge should pass to our east this evening allowing weak warm/theta-e advection to increase into the night, but the lack of moisture and any kinematic support in the NW flow staying to our west will keep the forecast dry through 12z.
Additional isold -SHRA possible Wednesday aftn with slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s and isold low 80s across the valleys of Rutland/Windsor counties. Lingering showers, mainly along the axis of an associated boundary from the low will mainly effect areas around the international border.
A cold front is expected to backdoor into the Panhandles by late in the weekend.
For the most part, in the lower levels we keep at least weak onshore flow around the Atlantic ridge or around weak ridging in the Northeast Gulf over the weekend. In the upper levels, we start out Wednesday with weak disturbances through the base of a broad upper trough/almost zonal flow. Upper ridging over the SW U.
312 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure extended from eastern Nebraska into the upper Ohio Valley at 19Z with a small area of isolated showers located near the southeast Nebraska Kansas border.
A dry southwest flow is prevailing over central CA today as the area is situated in between an upper low center off the Norcal coast near 40N/130W and an upper ridge centered over AZ.
A warm front begins to move north on Wednesday resulting in additional cloud cover expanding across the area from south to north during the day. H5 troughing will persist from the Great Lakes toward the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys for most of the period.
Moisture and instability is expected to decrease as a ridge builds back in tonight into tomorrow which will result in slightly warmer high temperatures tomorrow.
205 PM MST Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure and westerly flow over the region will continue to keep dry conditions and above normal temperatures in place through Wednesday.
Showers will linger behind the low from I-29 east.
Additional isold -SHRA possible Wednesday aftn with slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s and isold low 80s across the valleys of Rutland/Windsor counties. Generally fair weather during this period as high pressure remains across the Mid-Atlantic into the northeastern states.
High pressure will bring relatively dry and quiet weather for much of the work week across central Indiana. High pressure will build over the area today, leading to sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will continue to control the weather over central Indiana through much of the short term.
A trough remains over southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes region, while weak ridging persists over the southwestern CONUS. On Wednesday night, a front approaches the High Plains from the north.
A strong upper level ridge will remain over the eastern Pacific and the western U. The upper ridge's axis is offshore with the PACNW under a northwest upper level flow.
Activity is expected to diminish after sunset with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s across the area.
The threat for severe will remain on the isolated side but a few storms could produce hail to half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph with drier low levels and the freezing level around 11500 feet. The main upper trough swings through the forecast area Wednesday night with an associated surface cold frontal passage. The dynamics are fairly strong with this trough passage, with mid and upper QG forcing moving squarely through the area, and there is a focus mechanism with the cold front.
146 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure through Wednesday. High pressure surface and aloft builds into the region on Wednesday, providing for a nice day.
346 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Quiet weather conditions through mid week as high pressure continues to build into the Ohio Valley out of the Central Plains while a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the UP. The center of the high will track into Ohio early Wednesday allowing for a more southwesterly component to the wind field, and a slight increase in moisture with dewpoints rising to near 60 degrees in some spots. Models do support a strong mid level vort min crossing southern MI through the day which should help the ridge keep the weather quiet.
Cold front and showers will stay south of the TAF sites.
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure over the upper midwest is the dominating feature on today's weather map. Temperatures are on the cool side for early August and range from the upper 70s Plateau to the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. However, the aforementioned boundary will work back to the north as a warm front and will move across the mid state late Wed nt. For the near term temps, with a general broad trough over the eastern U. In the ext fcst, the boundary to our northwest will stall but will weaken as the trough remains just to our northwest.
Temperatures will warm slightly across the interior as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest through late week. The marine layer deepened to around 2000 feet overnight and surged inland, bringing mostly cloudy skies, cooler, below normal temperatures, drizzle, and patchy dense fog along the coast. A weak rex block has developed over the Northern California and the Pacific Northwest, with the upper low positioned over the Northern California coast, and the ridge apex over the PacNW. The marine layer will likely compress a few hundred feet tonight and slightly warmer temperatures are forecast farther inland as the aforementioned ridge backbuilds/strengthens into the southern half of California.
From an overall perspective, a weakness in the upper level high pressure ridge will likely cause the MCV to meander a bit.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic predict a weak upper trough/weakness in the height field at 500-mb over the ERN CWA/MSA Today. This weakness essentially represents the break in an E-W ridge axis that extends from the U. The deterministic models begin to build the E-W ridge over the CWA/MSA tonight and Wednesday, and dissipate the frontal boundary. Given increased moisture uncertainty, the building upper ridge, and the dissipating front, will lower POPs Wednesday.
High pressure over is parked the Atlantic with the ridge axis crossing the Florida Peninsula. The extent of the ridge axis no longer reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. The Atlantic ridge will migrate to the east, while dry air leading an inverted trough moves westward across the northern Leeward Islands.
333 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 No weather concerns today as high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi valley continues our run of pleasant summer days. However as this high continues to slide off to the east, we'll see a return to unsettled weather. This afternoon a diffuse cold front is stretched along the international border between two areas of low pressure, one over the Canadian Prairies & the other over Hudson Bay.
Little change on Wednesday as upper level low lingers near the coast.
This feature will bring in a reinforcing cold front, this one with higher BL moisture behind it filtering into most of the CWA by late Wednesday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms later into the evening, mainly in the west, central, and southern zones.
Series of vort maxes and reinforcing cold fronts are shown to pass into the region keeping below normal highs, good moisture, and potential for showers/thunderstorms through the short range period. One thing to note is that even though there is northwest flow over the CWA, it is not a strong ridge in the western CONUS causing this pattern.
133 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, returning dry conditions back to the area. The high will extend across the region tonight into Wednesday.
Tomorrow, a cold front moves through the area, bringing us a better chance for rain and thunderstorms.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017/ Easterly upslope flow is producing areas of light showers/drizzle mostly across the Rolling Plains as a weak upper trough axis works its way southeast over a very moist airmass.
313 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Rather large and broad mid/upper level trough in place across North America with a sharp ridge aligned along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure transits the Ohio Valley from west to east through the period. A frontal boundary draped across the deep south morphs into an inverted trough and shifts northward through the Commonwealth Wednesday. COOP MOS is advertising mid 50s in our cooler valleys tonight.
High pressure and westerly flow over the region will continue to keep dry conditions and above normal temperatures in place through Wednesday.
641 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build into the area through Wednesday.