Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 After a few active days, quieter and cooler weather is moving into the area. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level trough in MB and a weak and broad trough in the southeastern US but generally zonal flow across the central US. A pocket of cooler mid-level air will work across the northern Plains to upper Midwest on Sunday, keeping temperatures below normal.
315 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 At H5 Ridge over the Desert Southwest and a strong Bermuda High. Closed upper low north of the Great Lakes. Surface cold front from Northern Michigan to southeast Kansas this morning and scattered thunderstorms along the front. Highs rebounding as upper ridge to the west moves east.
Looking at the mid/upper levels, a weak low/trough is currently located over AL with cyclonic flow becoming a bit broader. Overall shower/storm coverage should decrease after sunset, but some convection could linger across E/SE thru the night as lift persists on the eastern side of the upper trough. The weak upper trough will remain over the region on Sunday with scattered showers/storms expected once again, with the best chances during peak heating.
An upper level trough will swing across the Plains on Sunday, sending a cold front into the Big Country Sunday morning. Compressional heating ahead of the front will result in hot temperatures, while much cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front along with gusty north winds. For now, the forecast was edged closer to the NAM solution, with the hottest temperatures across the southern half of the area and much cooler temperatures across the north half of the region.
Cloud cover should once again fill in during the morning and should remain mainly cloudy into tonight as the upper trough moves through. The period will commence with a potent cold front east of the area, from central MI through western IN along the western Ohio River into northern AR.
The GFS MOS is right in the middle of the much cooler NAM and warmer ECMWF so will settle on those numbers, generally in the mid 80s with a few 90s in our border counties to the east and south.
Upper level ridge building over the western CONUS will drive building heights over the forecast area.
126 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Widespread severe weather is still on track today along a strong cold front expected to push through the CWA this afternoon and well into the evening hours. Also, expecting to see dangerous heat levels across eastern Kansas and western Missouri today with continued increasing dew point values, combined with air temperatures rising into the low to perhaps mid 90s.
347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 The latest surface map features a cold front aligned from the Great Lakes down into the southern Plains. Aloft, cyclonic flow rules across the north central CONUS, with a stout short wave trough moving into the northern Plains. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s in the valleys, to near 70 on the ridges. A cold front will begin to push towards the area Sunday afternoon, with more organized meso-scale convection threatening from northwest to southeast later in the day. The higher resolution model guidance is varying on the convective scenarios. Instability will be moderate, with modest 0-6km shear in place, most of which is in the lowest 3km, supporting some potential bowing segments with damaging wind gusts.
A strong cold front will arrive around sunrise Sunday with gusty northerly winds behind it.
However given the lower lapse rates am not confident of large coverage/much initiation across the southern CWA before the boundary moves south. Therefore kept pops lower in the low to mid chance range over the next few hours into the early evening. Looking into Sunday much cooler air in place with steep lapse rates expected with the upper level cyclonic flow in place. Otherwise have temps much cooler for Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 70s with the cooler air, clouds and possible precip in place.
High pressure from the great basin will build north on Sunday with decreasing northwest flow.
Focus then turns to the cold front which will approach this evening and overnight.
/Issued 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ Weak upper trough lingers over the northern Gulf area this afternoon.
524 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 For tonight, a cold front will plow southward across the OK and TX Panhandles with strong north winds in its wake.
A regional-scale view of geostationary satellite animations reveals a large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea associated with a complex weather pattern involving a broad area of tropical low pressure and a trade-wind surge associated with a building subtropical high pressure system.
342 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A cirrus shield which remained from overnight thunderstorms has acted to keep temperatures a bit cooler early this afternoon. Explosive thunderstorm development will occur as a cold front translates south across that area. Showers and thunderstorms will then end from north to south across the Ozarks on Sunday as that cold front shifts south of the region. A cooler and drier air mass will also begin filtering into the area with highs Sunday afternoon around 80 degrees.
Storms this afternoon are expected to remain near the higher terrain near the NC border and the Cumberland Plateau, and dissipate around sunset.
Temperatures still warmed into the upper 80s in some locations, although other spots that had thicker cloud cover or showers remaining late this morning stayed cooler.
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms resulting from the trough of low pressure to the west continues to move eastward across the region at this hour. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along coastal locales.
401 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A warm front will slowly push east of the region tonight.
324 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A cold front will move east through the area Sunday into Sunday night.
135 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A midlevel disturbance across the Nrn Plains and Nrn Rockies moves east today sending a strong Pacific cold front through Western and North Central Nebraska. A blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction yields highs in the lower 70s north to mid 80s south. A fairly quiet pattern returns on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region.
A cold front will approach KABI by late morning Sunday, resulting in a wind shift to the north. The upper level ridge will basically remain in place.
Clear and dry today as high pressure shuffles around a bit over the next 18 hours before strengthening right overhead Sunday through most of the rest of the new week. Maybe all of the week, with the only thing to mitigate the near record and record heat being fluctuations in intensity of the high, and the hope of limited moisture seeping in from the east and southeast during the week.
This was allowing a weak mid level trough of low pressure to work into western and central SD. Mild lows in the 50s overnight with a combination of cooler and drier air but still some cloud cover hanging in.
Cigs to lower to MVFR in thunder for a period of time as a cold front moves north to south across the TAF tonight and tomorrow morning.
The upper level ridge of high pressure remains across northern Mexico and the southwest US, and similar to today, hot and humid conditions can be expected across South Texas again tomorrow.
500 MB height falls to accelerate tonight as strong upper wave/digging trough ejects out of Eastern Montana/Dakotas, reaching Lake Michigan around 12z Sunday, which looks to be the highest probability of showers and thunderstorms, and will carry likely pops with the good large scale forcing late tonight into early Sunday morning. Favoring the instability/low level theta-e ridge axis to be east of the CWA by around 16Z, with dry conditions expected for the afternoon hours. Deep boundary layer mixing looks to promote wind gusts at least around 25 knots as temps recover into the lower 80s with weak post frontal cold advection.
A cold front, which currently extends from the upper Great Lakes southwest through the central Plains, will be slowly working its way toward and eventually though the mid state over the next couple of days.
Tomorrow, we should continue to see the terrain areas favored for afternoon convection, but perhaps with greater activity in the Plateau as convergence with a surface pre-frontal trough moves across Middle TN and 500 mb heights fall ahead of an upper level trough. Will have chance PoPs for the entire area tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances on the eastern and western borders. Temps will likely be a bit warmer tomorrow compared to today with a stronger low level SW flow developing. Large upper level trough will be swinging through the Mid-West/Ohio River Valley to start the period along with associated cold front.
Strong ridging across the western United States will bring hot and dry weather to California the next several days. Strong ridging across the United States will bring hot weather to northwest California over the next several days.
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Satellite data showing an upper level disturbance continuing to sink southeast through the Dakotas this afternoon, associated with a low pressure system over Ontario. The main cold front has pushed just south of the CWA this afternoon, currently draped from central KS northeast into southern IA. Good agreement among models showing northwesterly flow building in the upper levels across the region, thanks to ridging building north over the western CONUS.
As s/wv trough approaches Central and Southern Plains tonight along with strong frontal boundary, another MCS appears likely to affect at least north-central and northeast portions of Oklahoma.
349 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Weak upper trough lingers over the northern Gulf area this afternoon.
Surface analysis places a cold front from the Great Lakes Region back through the Upper Midwest and into the Central Plains. Meanwhile, relatively rain free conditions are occurring across the Mid-South today as upper level ridging has kept any convective activity at a minimum. However, short term models indicate a line of showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern Missouri along the cold front and gradually spread south across Missouri tonight, perhaps beginning to reach the northern one third of the Mid-South late tonight towards sunrise.
Strong high pressure continues to build over the region with sunny skies prevailing.
Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy overnight, as lows range from the low to middle 70s. On Sunday, although the upper trough will shift further east of the region and ridging aloft somewhat increases over the CWA from the west, another upper level disturbance is poised to drop southeast across/near the CWA under north northwest flow.
Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm is possible this evening with instability lingering and an 850mb thermal ridge nudging into the region. A strong upper trough will approach the region tonight and upper divergence increases in response. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with the passage of the upper trough.
345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Cold front was moving across the Palmer Divide at 2 pm and was progressing southward. Up in NE CO, current temps have fallen into the lower 70s. Cold front will move across the SE CO plains the rest of this afternoon and should reach the CO/NM border by late afternoon or early evening. It will be noticeably cooler across the plains, with highs only in the U70s to M80s. Mtns will also be a bit cooler than today, but except for the regions mentioned above, they will be dry.
The tail end of a warm front offshore will slowly lift north across the coastal waters tonight through Sunday morning.
341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s inland this afternoon, and expect more of the same tomorrow, with a warm and humid airmass and upper level ridging in place.
Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. High pressure, at the surface and aloft, remains to our east, with southerly flow in place across the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. There is also a decent split between guidance -- with raw model data generally pointing at mid 70s across the lowlands, while MOS data indicates low to mid 80s. A cold front moves into the lower Ohio River Valley tonight. Dry and warm weather pattern breaks down on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region, spreading showers, and thunderstorms back into the area.
Freezing temperatures return to the lower elevations Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from mainly Tucson east and south.
Slow moving, longwave upper level trough across the western US and associated jet streaks moving across the Northern Plains in southwest flow will slowly shift toward the Great Lakes region. Models are in decent agreement with maintaining trough over the western US through the remainder of the work, placing the Northern Plains in southwest flow aloft.
A progressive snow band lifted across our western and northern zones and in our southeast counties, an area of freezing drizzle developed which caused a thin layer of ice and some slick spots. The light snow or flurries will be winding down during the morning, followed by a gradual decrease in cloud cover through the day as a mid level trough axis lifts out.
The biggest challenge continues to be in the expected surface temps in the region hovering near or just below freezing northwest of Milwaukee and Madison. How far north this precipitation gets will dictate whether we see another round of freezing drizzle and freezing rain in the winter weather advisory area. There is some potential for light freezing rain or drizzle to occur during this time, as drier air mixes out ice crystals.
Deep upper trough continues to slowly cross the western CONUS with active southwesterly flow across the northern Plains.
Surface wise, a subtle undulation is migrating west northwestward and through our region, with a large Western Atlantic ridge centered offshore of the extreme Southeast United States coast. In wake of a low level easterly perturbation passes through our county warning area very early this morning, deep layered ridging will prompt only nickle to 10 pops through Wednesday night.
As as been advertised, a mid and upper level ridge has built off the southeast U. The low clouds this morning will likely keep the 4A9/Lookout Mountain area in the middle 70s. The short range models continue to indicate a weak upper impulse rotating northward from the Gulf of Mexico around the western portion of the anti-cyclone.
and Wednesday Low pressure moving slowly across the state will produce one more round of significant precipitation this morning, and it will arrive right when most people are going to school or work.
INCREASING THREAT FOR LIGHT ICY ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND Early morning satellite showed the west edge of subtropical cirrus was making steady progress eastward across the region ahead of broad longwave troughing over the western third of the CONUS. Despite an overall drying trend aloft behind the subtropical moisture axis, the low levels will become increasingly moist and eventually saturated tonight following a sharp cold front. Stout thermal ridging ahead of the front will probably secure a 30+ degree temp contrast by late day from SW to NE across our CWA.
With southwest flow aloft becoming more amplified during the day tomorrow with the approach of an upper trough over the Great Basin now, inclined to think low level winds will back and a more southerly low level flow (and higher rain totals) will prevail but will wait for the remainder of 00Z guidance to come in before making any changes to the ongoing forecast.
The upstream cold front will begin to surge southeast on Tuesday, However, surface temperatures will remain above freezing through the day, so any precipitation Tuesday will fall in liquid form. As surface temperatures fall below freezing across most of the area later Tuesday night into early Wednesday, any lingering precipitation will change to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and possibly snow. However, considerable model spread still exists with how quickly the surface temperatures go below freezing and/or how quickly the precipitation ends behind the front. This spread results in freezing rain/ice potential from none to a couple tenths of an inch or more.
/issued 316 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/ A mid level disturbance over the Central Bahamas moves west northwest and across South Florida tonight around the high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters tonight. The high over the Western Atlantic waters will strengthen from 592 mbs tonight to 595 mbs late Tuesday through Wednesday. The high will then slowly weaken late this week into this weekend while moving westward into the Florida Peninsula. Highs each day will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s, except lower to mid 70s east coast metro areas.
453 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 Light freezing drizzle continues early this morning, occasionally mixing with snow mainly over the W. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a strong 500 mb ridge over the sern U. The trough in the western U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the western U. 12z Fri extending up into the Canadian Prairies and a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. The trough ejects into the southern Rockies 12z Sat and into the Great Lakes Sat night. More troughing moves into the area 12z Mon into Mon night.
331 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 TODAY AND TONIGHT: Disturbance crossing the region this morning as it rounds the southwest side of the of the mid-upper level ridge centered to our northeast. The eastern half of the region will continue in the low to mid 80s with breezy east winds.
A cold front draped across the northern Panhandles is bringing temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s in the northern Panhandles, to the 50s to near 60 in the southern Panhandles. Lee side troughing, still active in New Mexico this morning, may help keep southwesterly winds going across the southwestern Panhandles, which could slow forward progress of the arctic front.
Low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s across our area by the early morning hours. A few showers are possible, mainly on Tuesday and Tuesday night, but upper level ridging will keep most of the forcing for rainfall north and west of the area.
The clearing should allow temperatures to drop well into the teens and single digits in central KS, while clouds should keep temperatures slightly warmer in southeast KS. Current thinking is precipitation will start as flurries and/or light snow, transition to a wintry mix in the evening and then to freezing rain overnight.
IFR conditions and a light northeast wind will continue overnight at KBVO as they remain just north of a warm front. A cold front will move south across the area Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. The rain may change to freezing rain before it ends at the northeast Oklahoma sites. The cold front looks to have stalled this evening along a line from Norman, OK to Tulsa, OK to just north of Joplin, MO. If front continues to push northward to the KS/OK state line, temperatures should be warm enough that no freezing precipitation should occur.
High pressure ridge will be centered to the Northeast this period. Strong and deep ridge will remain east to northeast of the region, southeast of the Carolina coast with the mid/upper ridge axis extending over northeast Florida to the FL/GA border. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland, and the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
A 06Z surface analysis shows a cold front stretching from southern WI down the middle Mississippi valley and into the southern Plains. The upper level trough fueling this system stretches across the western CONUS, with our area still under the western side of deep layer ridging. The highest chances will be in southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
The first area across southwest through central Utah has persistent snow showers ahead of the southern end of the advancing upper level trough. Vorticity lobes moving through the base of the trough will find a cold/unstable ambient air mass generate trigger snow showers throughout the night and into early Tuesday. This convective precip should wind down fairly quickly during the morning Tuesday as the trough axis moves off to the east.
Expecting the max temps to only get into the low to mid 20s.
Some freezing rain is noted just to the west of the region. Trends suggest some freezing may impact western few to several counties this morning before ending. The longwave trof has retrogressed to the west coast which is its normal climatological position.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The highly amplified midlevel pattern remains in place across the US through the next 36 hours, with a trough along the Rockies and ridging centered just off Florida. This is inducing the next area of low pressure dropping into the Texas Panhandle. The next cold front will slowly drop southward across Texas today, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning.
The first band will set up across portions of the western Sandhills and Pine Ridge region. The Pine Ridge region could see wind chills approach 25 below zero. Afternoon temperatures will remain chilly with forecasted highs ranging from the single digits across Pine Ridge to the upper teens south of I-80. 1030 mb arctic high pressure should be located near or over ncntl Neb Wednesday morning. The high will move from snow-covered MT, through SD and into ern SD/ncntl Neb. The models continue to advertise a broad longwave trof across the Wrn U. As the arctic high pressure system underway moves east, the models show return moisture ahead of a second weaker arctic high.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across the CWA, however the cold front was situated one row of counties to the west with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. The models are differing in that aspect with the GFS showing almost no precipitation within the sub-freezing air and NAM showing still quite a bit. We have gone with a blend of the models which will bring in some freezing rain on the back edge of the main area of rainfall. Another issue as that the freezing line is expected to meander back to the north during the day Wednesday and then back south on Wednesday night so initial ice amounts may very well melt by the time the second round begins.
BUFKIT profiles stay mostly saturated all day, with a broad upper trough to the west migrating east with a noticeable PV anomaly and wave evident upstream. Energy aloft is expected to continually re-load the western conus trof, with that energy then ejecting east across the Rockies and into the plains.
In addition a slow descending cold front now seen in central Missouri will provide the focus for lifting the moisture.
Rain chances increase from north to south ahead of an approaching cold front, starting with VCT in the AFTN then to ALI-CRP by EVNG, with a transition to VCTS at VCT in the EVNG.
Have mostly VFR trending down to MVFR overnight as the lower CIGS expand in coverage. Guidance in the short-term is in good agreement with a large part of the area reaching the lower to mid 80s through Wednesday away from marine influences, and even those areas are warming as water temperatures are now reaching the lower to mid 70s. Spotty light showers possible on convergent streaks off the gulf flow through Tuesday night, but better organization should take place as cold frontal zone settles into the northern fringes of the forecast area Wednesday.
Freezing or near freezing temperatures will likely impact portions of the valleys and Inland Empire that don't regularly experience them. Drier and cooler on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies. The axis of the deep trough over the Western U. Lows will be more mixed along the coast where the lower elevation should limit any patchy frost to the most sheltered areas. The continuation of a longwave trough over the Western U.