Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the Gulf will direct light to moderate south southeast winds over the area under partly cloudy skies. /issued 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A flattening 500mb ridge is expected to move into the central US while a weak inverted trough over eastern Mexico continues to bring in surges of moisture across the region. The 00Z GFS indicates a fairly significant layer of dry air in the lower to mid levels through the period, which could cap off rain chances.
Surface and mid-level ridging will continue to extend west across the southeastern states and the northern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Temperature-wise, another hot and muggy day expected, with high temps rising into the lower 90s inland and mid to upper 80s near and along the coast. Lows tonight in the lower 70s inland and mid to upper 70s near and along the coast.
The upper level pattern through this period continues to depict upper level ridging over the southern CONUS. At the surface, this morning, a warm front resides near the Missouri/Iowa border. This warm front will continue to lift northward today keeping the CWA completely in the warm sector. Consequently, expect highs in the low to mid 90s and, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s expect heat index values to reach 101 to 108. Conditions will be similar on Wednesday with winds veering more to the southwest as a upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes helps to force a cold front towards the area tomorrow evening. Temperatures Wednesday will remain in the mid 90s however, with increased southwest winds, dewpoint should mix out slightly and remain in the lower 70s.
407 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Latest radar trends show isolated thunderstorms continuing over the higher terrain of northern Carbon and Albany counties and crossing the North Laramie Range into Converse County. A few high based storms have formed over the higher terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties but not much in the way of precipitation with these cells.
321 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A strong cold front will sweep across the area this evening. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday.
Broad high pressure currently centered over the four corners will begin retrograding over the west coast later this week. Some anticyclonic southwesterly flow on the westward periphery of the ridge along with some moisture present will bring the daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra crest areas each day through the end of the week.
Afternoon highs are xpcted to climb into the lower/mid 90s for most areas under mostly sunny skies, with heat indices reaching well into the mid 90s for a couple of hrs. As stated in previous discussions, the western periphery of the subtropical ridge will move into the area overnight, with southerly flow returning through the vertical column. This will begin the advection of deep layer moisture, as well as warmer temperatures. Overnight lows will be a couple of degrees warmer than previous nights, given the warmer dewpoints that will be advected northward. So, despite another mostly clear night, temperatures will fall into the lower 70s across much of the area. The TN Valley will remain on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge through the remainder of the short term, with an abundance of moisture continuing to advect northward.
A weak upper trough continues over the region with sunny, dry, and relatively cooler temperatures. While temperatures are generally 3 to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, Redding and Red Bluff were 98 degrees at 3 pm, and may still reach triple digits later this afternoon. Delta influenced areas have seen the most cooling and should remain in the low to mid 90s today and for the next several days.
/Issued 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ An upper ridge across the Panhandles today through Wednesday will allow for continued hot and dry conditions.
High pressure aloft will strengthen toward the weekend and will bring warmer weather and increasing monsoon moisture.
Currently, surface and upper high pressure remain the main features over the region, and have brought partly to mostly sunny and dry conditions to Arkansas. The upper ridge has push all short wave energy well north over the upper plains. Temperatures early this morning are in the lower to mid 70s, while dewpoints from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
We will still focus the higher PoPs over the higher terrain.
249 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Dry and warm weather will continue through the end of the week as the ridge of high pressure remains elongated across the Panhandle into the central U. The good news is that the ridge will slowly break down through the week with lowering heights a few decameters every day so we may have seen/will see the warmest temperatures yesterday and today. Until then, temperatures will remain near to a degree or two warmer than normal for both highs or lows.
Quieter weather and warming temperatures are forecast Wednesday through this weekend due to a strong high pressure ridge building over the region. Clearing skies are expected after 06Z/Wed as high pressure ridging aloft builds-in from the west.
329 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) Clear skies and slightly breezy conditions will continue for the remainder of today and tomorrow as upper level high pressure sits over the region. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s.
At the surface, a cold front will settle into the local area on Wednesday and provide additional focus for thunderstorms. For today, one more very hot day is expected with high temperatures in the lower to upper 100s.
Later today, instability on the increase as an 850 mb short wave trough approaches from the west and upper flow becomes more westerly. Will start with a lower end chance late for far western areas of the forecast area, then ramp up as the 850 trough tracks through the area. Return surface flow develop a surface frontal boundary over far northern Wisconsin into upper michigan for one boundary to focus on while the 850 warm front lifting into southern Wisconsin is the second area of forcing.
Went with a diurnal trend, leaning heavily toward the high resolution models and ended the convection around midnight.
Clearing skies are expected after 06Z/Wed as high pressure ridging aloft builds-in from the west. The system will bring cooler temperatures and some temporary relief from the heat. Upper ridge will build back into Montana on Wednesday with warmer temperatures. Upper-level ridge continues to build into Montana along with most of the Western U.
Highs a little either side of 90F along the coast and in the lower 90s inland.
Temps today will be a little above average, with 90s to lower 100's acrs the plains and 80s in the high valley areas.
However, some of the high resolution models show additional pcpn formation possible toward morning across the northern FA, which would still limit heating there. After 2 pm, and likely to about 7 pm, the high resolution model guidance seems to cluster around the idea of strong to severe storms forming over southeast ND. However, the higher risk has shifted to the further southward solution. There is an inverted trough that will hang back into northwest MN late tonight, which will keep some lingering weaker pcpn around. Wed will be a cooler day with north winds.
Southeast Idaho is temporarily under a dry zonal pattern aloft while the low pressure disturbance in the Gulf of Alaska slowly retrogrades off shore from the Coast of British Columbia, and high pressure attempts to re-establish it's location near the Four corners area.
Although overnight convection has created a rather complex surface pattern across the area early this morning, a weak cold front is expected to push into Nebraska from the north this afternoon with short term models suggesting thunderstorm development is possible along it. Heading into the evening hours this boundary will continue its push into the area and interact with a developing area of low pressure across northwest Kansas.
339 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Weak warm frontal boundary across northern IL with warm and humid air mass across central IL. Cooler temperatures as low as the upper 70s lingering after the morning thunderstorm complex along I-74 corridor as of 2 p. Heat will then build to the highest levels of the week with highs in the low to mid 90s, highest around the Springfield/Jacksonville area, and dewpoints continuing in the 70s.
353 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Broad upper level trough was over southern Canada. Upper trough will slowly shift east of the area by 12Z Thu. Upper level ridging will commence thereafter over the Rockies. Upper level low pressure system over the area will produce showers over northern MN for Wed. Northerly flow behind the system will pull some cooler air out of Canada limiting high temperatures to around the 70 degree mark.
Hi-res models continue to advertise a line(s) of storms diving south out of Minnesota after 5z, likely in the vicinity of a warm front that will be draped from north central to east central Iowa.
214 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Inverted trough across the northern gulf coast to maintain a chance of showers and thuderstorms across east Texas and north Louisiana through this evening. Ongoing weather pattern to persist through the remainder of the workweek as weak upper-level trough drifts north and lingers across the region.
In the update, added slight chance of showers/storms to the Atlantic waters and east coast metro later today, due to the presence of a weakening upper level low feature over the Keys. /issued 400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: Low level wind/moisture surge crossed the region last evening/early this morning, which along with the cooler temperatures aloft with the upper level low, sparked a robust area of showers and storms across the waters and mainland south of I-75.
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Lee troughing will lead to gusty south-southwesterly low-level winds, and a building low-level thermal ridge across the forecast area today into at least Wednesday.
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will bring warm and humid conditions through the end of the work-week. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A moist and humid airmass will persist over the area this afternoon as Bermuda high pressure ridges in from the Western Atlantic. The highest moisture will remain east with precipitable water values at 1. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s. in the lower 70s. Upper ridge attempts to slowly build in from the Atlantic. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Strong thermal ridging pushing into the south central may inhibit convection in Bismarck, with better chances possibly farther north into north central ND along the fringes of the thermal cap before spreading southward as you move east into the James River Valley.
/issued 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Upper level ridge prevails across the southern U. Temps are climbing toward 90 degrees and will top out in the lower 90s this afternoon. /issued 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ A typical summer time pattern will continue over the Mid-South over the next couple of days as an upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the area.
strong w-e upper level ridging will prevail over the next 2 afternoons. Thus, I look for temps to be 1 to 2 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Mainly dry, and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. As the subtropical ridge that is dominating the southern states bulges slightly northward, we are expected to get closer to the southern edge of the westerlies which will tend to aim any upstream convection that manages to fire at the local area. The lows will be some 5-10 deg warmer than normal. trough in response to strengthening upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners states.
An upper level ridge over the area will bring very warm weather to the area for the rest of the work week. High temperatures today are close to their expected highs in the low 90s. Once again SREF and other short term models not very bullish on fog or low stratus overnight but with last nights observations in mind, would not rule out patchy to areas of fog or low stratus especially in the southwestern counties but at this time forecast soundings do look a little drier in the low levels than last night. Temperatures will continue to go up on Wednesday as the subtropical ridge builds over the Carolinas and thickness values approach 1440.
636 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A warm frontal boundary will lift north through Wednesday and precipitation chances will diminish, with hot conditions for mid week. A cold front will approach and then move through the region late this week, bringing additional thunderstorm chances. With the warm frontal boundary well north of the area, convection along the WI/IL border should remain mostly north of the forecast area overnight.
Have blended PoPs among the various high resolution models that shows a general shift of the thunderstorm activity into northern Iowa toward midday and northeast Iowa this afternoon as the stalled front lifts northeastward as a warm front. This is when attention turns to a cold front that will approach from Minnesota and South Dakota.
Through the short term a flat mid and upper level ridge will remain just to the north.
1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 It is a quiet morning across the region with a flat upper ridge of high pressure over the region. On the satellite and water vapor imagery, you can clearly see a "ring of fire" or convection around the upper level ridge from the Four Corners Region across the Cornbelt into the Ohio River Valley Region. We will add another degree to the high temperatures with lower to middle 90s common around the area.
317 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Ridge amplification is diminishing with the main trough over Hudson Bay and associated wave extending to the southwest into the Northern Plains. Forecast challenges are the southern extent of the passage of this trough through Kansas and its respective potential for precipitation for the latter part of the week.
504 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure over much of the southern states will be the dominant force in our weather for the next 7 days.
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday.
614 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will bring warm and humid conditions through the end of the work-week. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. With the surface boundary across the forecast area and boundaries from thunderstorms could see a few thunderstorms overnight with the highest potential over the eastern Midlands and southern CSRA. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. Upper ridge attempts to slowly build in from the Atlantic. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Showers and storms will become land-based by late morning with the highest coverage during the afternoon hours. Temperatures should also remain seasonal - topping out in the lower 90s most places during the afternoon with morning lows generally in the 70s.
Models may be trying to dry things out a little fast as we close out the work week, but trend is for the ridge to build back over the Great Basin with a return to the hot and mostly dry weather. Still expect diurnally driven convection favoring the higher elevations, but wetting rain potential will be diminishing until we see the newly forming ridge shift back east into the plains. Temperatures will be slowly climbing back into to 5 to 10 degree above normal range, which means another run at triple digit heat for the lower valleys over the weekend. One last fly in the pattern will be the remnants of Hurricane Eugene in the eastern Pacific as latest water vapor imagery shows the high level moisture streaming northeastward into the southwest U.
139 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A cold front slipping south across the area will become nearly stationary today.
A warm front will move north across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa by early afternoon as low pressure organizes over south central South Dakota.
359 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 High pressure remained the dominate feature across the Southern Plains this afternoon with hot and humid conditions continuing over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Breezy southerly winds along with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s underneath high pressure have allowed for heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 common across the CWA. Conditions today are not expected to change all that much for Wednesday as the dome of high pressure continues over the region. an isolated thunderstorm potential could be possible within the higher terrain locations.
Surface analysis showing high pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and adjacent near coastal waters providing a continued moist southerly low level flow. A weak mid-level trof remains over the region and extents across the southeast CONUS and through central Texas. Aforementioned trof drifts northward Wednesday with slightly drier air incoming. Begin to ramp up pops advancing through the weekend as next upper trof approaches from the north along with an associated surface boundary. Light and mainly southerly winds will persist through the week as high pressure continues to ridge across the northern gulf.
/Issued 1032 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ 12z soundings indicate indicate high temps today should be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, as advertised in going forecast. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites as a high pressure ridge aloft resides over the region. /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Another hot and humid day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure reigns supreme across the area.
442 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2017 Main forecast concern will be low probabilities for freezing fog and freezing drizzle between about 06z tonight and 18z Friday. Cold front has pushed into the panhandles with shallow cold air mass building into the central High Plains. After midnight, will start to see the low levels gradually saturate from west to east, with low level warm advection/isentropic lift just above the saturated layer. All in all, confidence is lacking for an advisory, but will carry patchy wording for freezing fog/drizzle as not to totally discount the possibility. Eastern areas may stay cloudy well into the afternoon and temperatures may struggle to reach even the lower 40s that are forecast.
Locally gusty winds will be possible over higher mountain ridges as cross sections show 20 to 30 knots of wind around 10,000 feet. We are currently under a flat ridge bringing westerly flow to the region. Warmer high temperatures throughout northeast Colorado tomorrow. Extended looks more quiet this round with only a couple disturbances in the flow bringing a slight chance of snow to the higher elevations.
631 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon and this evening. High pressure will build in for the end of the week.
The upper trough itself treks along the International border Friday, dry slotting our area. Lows however will not be as cold with the influence of the ridge pushing the Arctic air mass east. The upper trough base swinging through the local area might be able to produce some mixed or light snow in the north.
This southwesterly flow will allow some slightly warmer mid- level temperatures make their way into the region. Expect some additional cloud cover in the late afternoon hours on Friday as well, as a weakening trough over the northwestern CONUS shifts eastward into the northern Rockies. Guidance is in excellent agreement through the short term and keeps any precipitation associated with this trough to the north of the Wyoming border through Friday night.
Tricky forecast for tonight with respect to the low level clouds, and the potential for additional fog development overnight. Ahead of this feature, a period of patchy fog is possible before westerly winds move in behind the trough and reduce the fog potential and slowly erode the stratus deck (though that could take some time through tomorrow morning given the strength of the low-level inversion). This will be the warmest day of the short term as temperatures climb into the low 40s across much of the region, warmer temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s are anticipated in north central Wyoming and southern portions of the forecast area near the WY/MT border.
There will be quite a few hours of light or calm wind before the cold front builds south with a tightening pressure gradient and increasing northerly winds.
We are currently under a flat ridge bringing westerly flow to the region. Warmer high temperatures throughout northeast Colorado tomorrow. Extended looks more quiet this round with only a couple disturbances in the flow bringing a slight chance of snow to the higher elevations.
With ridging remaining in control. A ridge will stretch from Baja California east into deep South Texas.
530 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017 Cold high pressure continues to slowly drift east tonight, setting us up for southeasterly flow on Friday. And while lows may drop to around 32 in some areas, by the time the drizzle begins, it should warm to above freezing.
652 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017 As an upper level system and strong cold front approach there will be a low chance of some light rain showers into the evening, mainly north of Route 6. Low temperatures overnight will drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s. Cold front moving through the forecast area this afternoon but latest KIWX radar loop showing just a few returns north of the CWA so have cut back on POPs remainder of the afternoon as front pushes through NE CWA. Water vapor imagery depicting strong upper low just off the Pacific NW coast will weaken significantly as it comes onshore Friday and quickly traverse western/mountain CONUS and provide short wave energy that will affect our area for this weekend.
530 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017 A cold front pushed through most of eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region behind the front bringing the coldest air of the season so far. LJB A sunny but cold day is ahead Friday for the bi-state region with lighter winds as 1038 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the western Great Lakes. Highs Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s north of St Louis/I-70 to the lower 40s south with mid 40s far southern reaches of CWA.
The broad trough positioned to our southeast will keep a steady northeast flow in place.
425 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary south and west of the area, with cold high pressure centered over eastern ND. Upper level analysis shows low over southern Hudson Bay, with ridging from the Rockies to the Southern Plains, and a low off of the Pacific NW coast. Skies remain mostly cloudy across the area with chilly temperatures, ranging from the lower 20s across far northwest SD to the mid 30s over northeast WY and far southwest SD. A warming trend will develop for the end of the week and the weekend, at least to near or slightly above average temps, as ridging moves over and eventually east of the region. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 40s to mid 50s, warmest over northeast WY and southwest SD.