Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However lingering weak elevated instability and upper level jetlet rounding the base of the trof and affecting southern WI may continue to generate showers and a few storms through the late night. The approach of a 250 millibar jet core on eastern side of trough will be enhancing upper divergence as well. The 500 millibar low will keep disturbances pivoting in from the southwest as overall trough axis remains to our west through the end of the day. So POPS will be on the higher side this period though some dry times as well.
A clear and mild night for the area will be followed by a warm day on Tuesday as the surface thermal trough sets up over southeast Oregon.
Over the higher terrain a band of snow is moving across the cntrl mtns but should gradually decrease in the next few hours. Guidance lows are a little cooler than the previous forecast, and that looks good. The low chance of showers on the plains still looks appropriate.
1030 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor loop showed a upper low spinning north of MN and a stout upper ridge from the eastern Pacific into southwest Canada. The threat for small hail is present given the low-topped convection and fairly low wet-bulb heights. A cold front was moving southeast across the Interstate 80 corridor. The upper ridge to the west will make a slow trek to the east across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies Tuesday.
748 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A weak cold front will push east through the region tonight.
Cold front will also spread south through the early morning hours and bring a chance for at least scattered convection to develop through sunrise. A cold front will move south across the area Tuesday morning, with winds becoming north.
A stronger offshore flow will delay onset of the east coast sea breeze allowing temps to warm into the lower 90s even at the coast. High pressure ridge axis south of the waters will produce S/SW winds winds 10-15 knots except 15 knots offshore with scattered showers and isolated storms pushing out to sea. Low pressure moving along stalled out front to the north will increase southwest winds 15-20 knots well offshore.
1100 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold Canadian low pressure trough and cold front moving south across the area this afternoon will bring areas of showers, with snow above 8500 feet, and isolated thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and small hail. The cold air will keep freezing temperatures across the snow pack tonight with some lows in the mid to lower 20s in the northern and central mountains and higher valleys.
729 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east Tuesday/Tuesday night.
729 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Mins will range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.
737 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Aviation An upper low over the Great Lakes will keep the chance of rain in the forecast for the next few days.
/Issued 350 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Cold front is continuing to make its way south through the region just about to exit the TX Panhandles as obs show winds shifting to northerly behind the front. Any left over showers or an isolated storm will linger through Tuesday morning as the main upper level trough axis continues to shift east bring the precipitation upstream of the axis further to the east throughout tomorrow morning. With the cold front passing and mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
919 PM PDT Mon May 22 2017 Another hot day is anticipated Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure along the West Coast stregthens slightly. A sharp cooling trend will arrive during the second half of the workweek as a trough of low pressure traverses the region.
734 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region this evening.
945 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front is crossing the region this evening. High pressure will briefly return overnight before low pressure develops over eastern Carolina Tuesday and moves northeast off the DelMarVa Tuesday night.
909 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. With good drying at the surface courtesy of dewpoints in the lower 40s, this should be enough to negate fog development outside of deeper West Virginia gorges. High pressure yields abundant sunshine with daytime fair weather cumulus once temperatures climb into the mid and upper 60s /convective threshold/. Elected to keep a small pops for the higher terrain however, recent runs have backed off on the amount of low level moisture thus QPF if it happens will be a few hundredths as best. Anomalously deep mid level cyclone moves slowly east with outer band of showers reaching parts of eastern Ohio by late morning then taking its sweet old time before reaching western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia toward supper time.
620 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor loop showed a upper low spinning north of MN and a stout upper ridge from the eastern Pacific into southwest Canada. The threat for small hail is present given the low-topped convection and fairly low wet-bulb heights. A cold front was moving southeast across the Interstate 80 corridor. The upper ridge to the west will make a slow trek to the east across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies Tuesday.
A cold front will move into the area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and behind it. A cold front will move south into the area late tonight with gusty north winds behind it. /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a strong trend from the lower left to upper right.
Also seeing patchy -RA/-DZ farther W still lingering over portions of Deep E TX S of I-20 based on the low 02-03Z cigs/reduced vsbys, which also look to longer overnight as well. A brief lull in the rain is expected Tuesday morning, but we will await the arrive of the upper trough now digging SSE into the lower TX Panhandle to trigger sct to numerous areas of convection over the region by afternoon. Did make a few minor (cooler) adjustments to forecast mins tonight as well, but otherwise, the current forecast still looks good. Look for FG/BR/cigs to slowly lift by lunch and then shwrs/tstms to become likely as the cold front moves over the area.
Thunderstorms have so far been confined to the western half of Oklahoma, with diminishing lightning upon approaching the lower instability east of Interstate 35. /Issued 335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Broad upper trough centered over southern Canada continues to result in cyclonic northwest upper flow over the plains states with trey warm sector air suppressed well to our south at present. At this time it appears the best chance of thunderstorms and attendant severe weather/heavy rainfall threat will be early in the weekend, with front bringing cooler and drier airmass south for the end of the holiday.
1222 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. Fries Anomalously deep mid level cyclone moves slowly east with outer band of showers reaching parts of eastern Ohio by late morning then taking its sweet old time before reaching western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia toward supper time.
Upper level low pressure was located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi valley region early this afternoon with a 100 kt upper level jet diving south on the back side of the low across the northern into the central Rockies.
and especially along and near the Altamaha River basin where a quasi-stationary frontal zone meandered and was being over-ridden by passing mid level short wave trough vorticity from the WSW.
Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if not cooler, generally west of US Highway 83. Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level trough moving through. On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights at h500 suppressing convection most of the area.
1156 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Weak high pressure overspreading western and central PA late this evening with partial clearing over central and western areas. and mins will range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 77 63 75 / 60 50 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 76 61 74 / 60 50 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 76 61 76 / 40 40 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 73 58 73 / 50 50 50 70.
1100 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 The probability for the next 6 to 14 days appears to favor cooler and wetter than what is usually expected. With that said, troughing will dominate the lower 2/3 of central NOAM with high latitude storms dropping into the upper Great Lakes region. With the Rockies and the High Plains being on the Western side of the trough cold air and Pacific mositure will easily drop southward and help verify the cool forecast. NAM guidance continues to trend upward behind this front which doesn't seem to make sense though upper heights will be increasing as ridging temporarily replaces the trough over the central states. Did go for the cooler side of guidance for Tuesday which will be at or slightly below normal.
Nice weather day today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across Middle TN. Have rain chances increasing from the southeast tonight and tomorrow as a broad short range vort max rotates around the low that drops out of the great lakes.
However, by the late afternoon or early evening, a cold front will move south through the region with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. The arrival of cooler, drier air along with the lingering rainfall potential should put the kibosh on convection later Tuesday night, and also allow low temps to dip into the 60s for the northwest 2/3 of the CWA.
Cold front will very slowly progress southeastward through the day on Tuesday with a continued threat for precipitation. Highest chance of showers and storms because of the timing of the cold front will be across central portions of the forecast area. Coolest locations are expected to be across northwestern sections of the forecast area with highs in the low 60s and warmest areas including portions of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri topping out in the low 70s.
The high pressure axis will slowly move south for the next couple of days, with winds turning to the southwest.
959 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region this evening.
Look for cooler conditions through most of the week as a onshore flow combines with the marine layer. Inland areas that reached the 90s today will see more significant cooling for Tuesday as onshore flow continues to increase with a deepening marine layer in response to upper troughing aloft.
1132 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Upper level low pressure was located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi valley region early this afternoon with a 100 kt upper level jet diving south on the back side of the low across the northern into the central Rockies.
757 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Mins will range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.
strong H5/H7 ridging remains in place over the central portion of the country. Current positioning of the trough over eastern Colorado will preclude most western portions of the area today for any precip. With the trough inching closer to the CO/KS border during the day. looking for precip to taper off from west to east by 06z Friday as upper ridge begins push eastward into the Plains region for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
/issued 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ The area of low pressure that had brought the heavy rain to South Florida is finally splitting, with the main low exiting to the north east. This upper level low is forecast to slide to the northeast and be over New England by Friday morning. This front, which is a cold front, without the cooler weather, but with drier air to the north, will push into the Lake region before stalling, then washing out.
A drier, cooler and more stable airmass will funnel over the local area in the wake of a late season cold front passage. Mostly cloudy skies will continue across NE FL where scattered light rain showers and patchy drizzle will continue as mid/upper level trough overrides cool ENE low level flow. Daytime temperatures will remain well below climo values with values only in the low 70s near the coast to upper 70s farther inland. Temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 80s inland while the coast will be cooler in the lower 80s due to onshore flow.
High pressure in place across Indiana will be the dominate weather feature today. The High will bring more sunny weather with cool northeast winds. Tonight the high will drift farther south. however most of Central Indiana will remain dry under the influence of the High pressure system to the south. Strong High pressure is expected to build aloft over the region for the weekend. The next best chance for rain is the middle of the next work week as a cold front approaches from the west. broad high pressure in place across Indiana. Aloft a ridge was in place across Wisconsin. Models suggest the high will slowly settle south across Indiana today. The upper ridge to the north is expected to flatten upon approach. may trend friday highs at or warmer than the forecast builder blend.
The frontal boundary will push south of the area and then stall tonight as the upper low swings east of the state over the New England region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s north and in the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s coastal for the central and southern zones. Mid level troughing across the lower Mississippi valley at the start of the period will close off into a closed upper level low near the Texas Gulf coast during the upcoming weekend as upper level ridging builds in over the mid Atlantic and across the southeastern states. At the surface a stalled frontal boundary initially across the southern most Florida peninsula Friday night will lift back to the north as a warm front during the weekend.
A fairly subtle upper trough axis will rotate southeastward through tonight. Central Alabama will be under the influence of upper trof which was positioned over the southeast states. This upper trof will bring cooler and lower humidity levels into the region. An inverted surface trof currently over west Georgia will push into east Alabama this morning. Clouds have already increased in areal coverage across far east Alabama along the low level trof axis. The inverted trof will dissolve this evening and so will the chance of any additional showers. 58/rose Deep-layer dry air and relative high pressure will be in place on Friday behind a departing upper trough.
A broad trough continues over the eastern states, maintaining a dry northwest flow aloft.
This system will drag a strong cold front across the state by Friday with a stark cooling trend for the weekend.
All of the models agree that H5 heights will rise through the short term as the ridge out across the Rockies develops eastward and eventually across our area.
Eastern counties appear to have the highest potential for fog overnight as dewpoint depressions will be lowest in that area, and cannot rule out some dense fog in spots. Upper trough bringing us the cooler weather today will lift out of the region tomorrow, with 500 mb heights rising sharply to near 590-592 dm over the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast.
There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday as a weak cold front sags southward into the region. Then dry weather and much warmer temperatures will then return for the rest of the weekend.
Dewpoints have dropped into the lower to mid 50s across the CWA. The drier air will bring warm days with highs in the lower to mid 80s, but cool nights with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Highs are forecast to be similar compared to yesterday with readings in the lower 80s. Cloud cover increases from the west, insulating sfc temps a bit with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 High pressure continues to bring the region very pleasant and quiet weather. Mostly clear skies will be around today and tonight with highs back into the lower 80s and overnight lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s. Upper level ridging and height rises will keep the weather quiet and rain free through the weekend.
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Mostly dry across SE TX this afternoon as a pocket of dry air indicated on water vapor satellite imagery filters in from the north along the back side of an upper level low.
406 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
/issued 326 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ We can expect another day of convection off the higher terrain of New Mexico although chances of reaching West Texas may be a little bit lower than seen the previous few days. A stronger theta-e ridge will exist over eastern New Mexico extending into the western South Plains. However, the ridge axis to the west will begin to shift over the region resulting in acting to suppress convection. Temperatures will warm this weekend well into the 90s as the ridge moves directly over West Texas. A deep trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will encourage dry line development locally this weekend.
KAMA and KGUY have the highest chance of being affected by these storms so included a vcts for these sites. Additional thunderstorms may move in off the higher elevations during the afternoon and evening, but confidence is low with the areal coverage and placement of this activity, thus left mention of thunder out of KDHT at this time. CAMs show that KAMA will have the highest chance for storms while KDHT and KGUY could miss out as they will be near initiation locations.
/Issued 343 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ The primary feature affecting the forecast today is the upper level low currently centered over West Virginia this morning. As the low lifts toward the northeast today, a vort max rotating around the system will increase the chance for scattered convection over far north Georgia this afternoon and early evening. Friday will bring dry and pleasant weather as high pressure takes control. Low temperatures Friday morning will also be quite pleasant for early June, ranging from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s elsewhere.
1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A high pressure ridge axis is keeping the mild weather in place over Central Illinois again today. Mostly sunny skies are expected and highs in the low 80s/high 70s with light and somewhat variable winds. A pleasant day ahead for central and southeast IL as 1019 mb high pressure over lower MI and northern parts of IL/MO settles southward into the mid MS and Ohio valley toward evening. Lows tonight 55-60F with coolest readings near the IN border closer to high pressure ridge and lightest winds. A fair amount of sunshine expected again on Friday with warmer highs in the low to mid 80s with sw flow. Dewpoints remain low in the low to mid 50s on Friday. Lows Friday night in the lower 60s, with areas along the IN border around 60F.
The forcing with this MCV will be replaced by a rather strong cap during the day Friday as a strong ridge move into the region.
Other storms will develop farther west over the higher terrain. Mainly dry, warmer and windy weather is expected this weekend as a mid level ridge axis shift eastward over the Plains.
With daytime mixing, this should allow high temperatures to warm slightly above normal for this time of year, reaching into the low nineties across SE TX. Although rain chances are not expected today, will point out that some of the higher resolution models such as the 00Z Texas Tech and the 06Z HRRR show at least isolated chances today over the far southwestern areas toward Matagorda Bay.
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The warm up begins today as high pressure that has been in control over the past couple days finally shifts south. Weak afternoon warm air advection and mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. However, the real warm up will be reserved for this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the region beginning Friday.
Maximum temperatures will warm into the lower 90s. The region will still be under the influence of western-based upper ridging/NW flow pattern but it will begin breaking down going into the weekend.
The low will linger over central Lake Michigan Friday night. As this low pulls away, winds will become northeast along the lake, and the frontal boundary will stall across southern WI on Friday.
304 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Upper level low over the eastern half of the CONUS, with a ridge over the Rockies resulting in a moderately amplified pattern aloft, while a stubborn ridge remains in place over the mid Mississippi River Valley. In the immediate term, a quiet night, a couple degrees warmer than last night with some increasing high thin clouds. Tomorrow, a warming trend continues as the upper low moves out and the ridging builds in over the center of the country.
Just a few fair weather cu can be expected across the region with dry high pressure in control. /issued 946 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area today bringing mostly sunny skies, with warm and relatively less humid conditions. a broad low pressure system was over the eastern United States. A ridge of high pressure was building across the central united states and in our area. we are still on the backside of the large upper level trough mentioned earlier across the eastern US.
/issued 443 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge will remain over the Rockies through tonight, with a an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This will keep our area in northwest flow aloft through tonight, with the possibility of a few very weak impulses rotating around the ridge axis and across West Central Texas later this afternoon and evening.
Mid level ridging holds over the area with warm mid level temps.
Dewpoint readings should remain stable through the rest of the afternoon and slowly increase overnight as the low level flow collapse.
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will provide unsettled afternoon weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
Lows will be in the low 60s inland and mid 60s at the coast.
645 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
Another amazingly pleasant June day unfolding across the Mid- State, as high pressure over the Mississippi Valley provides northerly flow and dry dew points in the 50s. Otherwise, expect prevailing high pressure to produce VFR conditions at Mid-State terminals for the remainder of the forecast period.
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper level ridge currently over the Rockies will gradually build eastward to become centered over the Plains on Friday. At the surface, the region will be situated between high pressure to the north and to the southeast, with a weak frontal boundary over southern South Dakota. A low pressure system will approach from the west later tonight, with the associated frontal boundary just reaching the western CWA by late Friday afternoon.