Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Trailing cold front will approach cenral MO by around 12Z Saturday.
Little cooling is anticipated behind the weak cold front.
The cold front is still to the northwest of the forecast area this afternoon. The cold front will move through most of the forecast area during the evening hours. Behind the cold front winds will turn to the northwest and will pick up a little.
236 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Snow showers should end this evening as high pressure builds in. Rain and snow chances return Saturday with crossing low pressure. The boundary layer flow is expected to back to the SW as ridging builds in and inversion heights lower, ending the snow showers later this evening. The latest model runs have trended cooler, so mentioned more of a rain/snow mix south of I 80 where boundary layer temps may warm enough for some rain, with all rain e The precip should stay all or mostly snow N of I 80, though only around an inch of accumulation is expected.
427 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a Clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
High pressure will continue to shift east from the southern Plains into the southeast U.
The cold front has shifted south over southern Florida. A much drier and cooler air mass is filtering into the region this morning behind front. High pressure building into the area from the west will continue to produce mostly sunny skies and a northerly wind which will help keep temperatures about 8-10 degrees cooler than average. Daytime highs today will only reach into the low to mid 60s region wide. Interaction between the cold front now located over southern Florida and strong high pressure located along the northwest gulf coast is producing gusty winds and rough seas over the coastal waters. The high pressure slips east by Saturday allowing for the gradient to weaken which will produce decreasing east northeast winds.
Moisture is beginning its return across South Texas with dewpoints back into the low to mid 40s along the coast this afternoon, expected to rise into the 50s and lower 60s overnight. Will have warmer temperatures tonight due to increasing dewpoints. If we get some breaks before sunset, could get a few sneaky warmer spots though.
Otherwise, skies will become cloudy with highs still above normal with a few areas in southwest/south central Minnesota rising above the freezing mark.
1124 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 A thermal ridge builds to around 10C at h850mb today. A cold front drops through tonight. Winds will shift to the southwest Saturday as high pressure shifts east across KS into MO. Warmer air will quickly move into the area with H850MB temperatures rising from -5C to 2C through the day.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the region was keeping skies clear and winds light for the forecast area, though some gusts to 30 mph were still being reported at the higher elevations. Expect dry weather and above normal temps today as the upper ridge flattens and flow aloft becomes more westerly. This will help to boost temps across the plains into the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is about 15 degrees warmer than yesterday.
1153 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Surface ridging moves eastward today with a southerly flow returning to the area. This will bring about warmer temperatures in spite of increasing high clouds, with highs running mid 30s along the Highway 14 corridor into the Iowa Great Lakes area, to the mid 40s through the Missouri River Valley. A cold front swings across the area tonight.
Winds have become more southerly with warmer air moving into the region at least in the short term. Tonights lows only expected to drop into the 30s, a few degrees warmer than last night.
1137 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 As snow showers decrease this afternoon, high pressure will briefly build into the area, bringing some sun but keeping temperatures cold.
Areas of fog will likely develop late tonight into early Sat morning as winds become light and variable and moisture pools along and ahead of the developing warm front.
High pressure will be drifting east across the Deep South through the night. With clear skies and winds becoming nearly calm within a few hours of sunset, we should see low temps in the lower to mid 20s in most spots. The highest mountain peaks may begin with snow before warm advection takes over and raises the freezing level.
This will allow return flow to set up and increase westerly to southwesterly winds aloft ahead of a developing area of low pressure deepening as it slides southeastward into the northern plains today. Otherwise stronger push of winds will be late tonight behind the cold front associated with the area of low pressure to move through the CWA tonight. Don't quite have winds quite that strong in the grids given the more transient nature of the higher winds/wind gusts expected.
but slightly cooler in Carbon county where temperatures remain in the 30's this afternoon. as the first of a series of cold fronts is moving southward from Montana into northern Wyoming this hour. Not much in the way of dynamics as the upper level trough associated with the front rapidly weakens and moves southeast over the area.
A dry high pressure ridge will move across Mid TN today. As the ridge axis moves closer, winds that are gusting over 20 mph this morning will drop off to less than 10 mph this afternoon. A high pressure ridge will move in this afternoon allowing gusty northwest winds to drop under 10kt and become more westerly.
Thinking is that despite the cloud cover, with southwest to northwest low level flow - favorable mixing conditions will result in temperatures topping out several degrees above freezing for most of the CWA. Cold advection follows as the low moves into northern Minnesota. As high pressure sinks to the south, low level flow becomes southwesterly again for Saturday.
At the surface, lee troughing is in place with riding situated down across the Arklatex region. Lee troughing will continue to increase today as the impulse over the Pacific NW quickly dives southeast. This will push a weak cold front through, knocking highs back into the 40s for Sat and Sun. At the same time, a more robust upper trough will slowly track across the Northern Intermountain into the Pacific NW. The directional component will switch through the overnight to the west and northwest as a cold front moves across the area; speeds will be roughly 10 mph. These low RH values will combine with strong sw winds to elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category, with the highest values across the Flint Hills into south central KS.
311 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a Clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
1132 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2016 18z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad ridging ongoing across the plains with area of mountain induced cirrus forming across northeast Colorado. Approaching short trough was just crossing the Canadian border with corresponding sfc front in the Dakotas. Cold front will sweep across the area and while winds above the surface will increase with its passage. Temps will be 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow than today.
Most of the model guidance limits the central KS counties (Hays - Stafford) to the low to mid 50s, while a better chance to push 60 degrees exists in the extreme southwest. The NAM mos warmest temperatures may well be behind the advancing cold front, which will be the 60s across eastern Colorado and northwest KS before it pushes through our region later tonight. A ridge into Alaska coupled with a deep upper trough into the U.
So highs will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Will see this system stretched out rather quickly with a piece of energy shunted into the upper Midwest while stronger vort is associated with a cut off upper low over northern California. Cold front associated with northern stream system to approach northwestern MO by 06z Saturday, moving into northeastern/central MO by 12z Saturday.
221 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure builds into the area through tonight. The high moves off to the east Saturday.
225 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure will build into central North Carolina from the west today, settle over the area tonight, then rapidly shift offshore during the day Saturday. There was one small area of radar echoes that advected off the Blue Ridge Mtns in VA and into the northern Piedmont this morning, and there may have been a few flurries, though none were reported. Although increasing upper level cloud cover will act to mitigate insolation during the afternoon hours, strengthening warm advection should allow highs to rebound into the lower/mid 50s. Expect lows Sat night warmer than tonight as a result of increasing mid/upper level cloud cover, ~40 degrees.
141 PM MST Fri Dec 30 2016 18z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad ridging ongoing across the plains with area of mountain induced cirrus forming across northeast Colorado. Approaching short trough was just crossing the Canadian border with corresponding sfc front in the Dakotas. Cold front will sweep across the area and while winds above the surface will increase with its passage. Temps will be 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow than today. An extended cold outbreak looks to be on tap for this period as a deep trough digs into the western CONUS early in the week then slowly moves across the remainder of the CONUS.
To the west, from southern Manitoba southward through the eastern Plains, a low amplitude ridge is in place. Sfc-850mb ridge translates from the eastern Plains through the Midwest resulting in lighter winds during the day and dry conditions. The previously mentioned low-level ridge will move east of the area by the late afternoon at which time southerly sfc winds are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph. Uttech Fairly tranquil conditions and seasonable temperatures are on tap for the area on New Year's Eve and Day, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region.
Flat ridge remains in place over the Great Basin this morning with an upper low approaching southern CA and a splitting trough moving south through the Pacific Northwest. The inversion has increased in strength and have most valley locations a few degrees cooler than yesterday for daytime highs. Heights aloft fall as the trough in the Pacific Northwest moves south and this will result in mountain temperatures being a bit cooler as well. Upper low off of the CA coast will move through the desert southwest tonight through early Saturday. Trend has been to confine the associated precipitation a little further with each model run as trough dropping down the west coast prevents low from ejecting to the northeast.
106 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 As snow showers decrease this afternoon, high pressure will briefly build into the area, bringing some sun but keeping temperatures cold.
Sfc ridging shifts east Saturday evening as two organized vorticity maxima round the southern stream jet before lifting east towards the plains region.
318 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 An intense area of low pressure over Canadian Maritimes will continue to move away from the area overnight. Weak high pressure builds into the region Saturday.
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure continues to dominate at the surface as it shifts eastward across the region.
Maliawco Synoptic Setup: A narrow pacific trough runs from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest through northern Idaho and southern Saskatchewan and towards the cold core center over the Hudson Bay. northeast Montana lies under zonal flow as the trough drops south through the area. Farther northwest another ridge is nosing in from the Gulf of Alaska into northern british COlumbia and dropping south in the flow. directly behind that is yet another trough moving through the Alaska north-slope. Today through Saturday: A succession of the trough Today followed by the ridge upstream will pass through the area. However the effects of the ridge will mute out as it dissipates in the flow by saturday Afternoon.
Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest late tonight and into early Saturday morning. Clouds will remain in tact across much of the Arklatex late Saturday onward as well as the frontal boundary lingers in the region and surface and mid-level low pressure over central Texas continue to pump gulf moisture northward into Arkansas.
Yesterday's cold front has cleared the state and is now crossing Cuba. High pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This high center will move quickly eastward to a position over the Florida Panhandle by 00Z and Southeast Georgia by 12Z. However, the presence of the clouds will prevent most areas from reaching freezing. Elsewhere inland areas will dip to the mid 30s with coastal areas bottoming out in the lower 40s.
247 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 The boundary layer will remain well mixed this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front approaching the area.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 50s under abundantly sunny skies and a light southwesterly wind.
246 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure centered near the Arklatex region drove a cold frontal surge through the Florida Keys shortly before sunrise. Thereafter, the eastern moving area of high pressure will have aspirations for the waters of the Western North Atlantic.
Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over East TX, with NW flow aloft upstream from a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS. The pressure gradient will tighten considerably later today across OK as a result of the departing high and strengthening lee side low pressure to our west.
Some model soundings do show a loss of ice late this evening, suggestive of some freezing rain/drizzle before precipitation moves out of the area. Still some questions on how much lift will still be available at this time, but will continue with a snow/freezing precipitation mix for a few hours tonight mainly across Taylor County. Under cloudy skies, temperatures won't move much tonight with lows in the lower-mid 20s.
Gusty downsloping winds already occurring over the high terrain into the urban corridor will continue through today due to the surface gradient. The high country will warm into the 30s and low 40s over South Park. Low level moisture behind the cold front is expected to form stratus over the urban corridor into the foothills after midnight. Saturday should start off the day with some stratus across the lower foothills and plains with sufficient moisture in shallow upslope. Temperatures will be cooler, but a return to sunshine in most areas by late morning and the afternoon should boost temperatures back closer to normal levels.
2 pm temperatures in the dvn cwa ranged from around 30 along Highway 20 to the lower to mid 40s in our far sw counties. These reasons will be especially true in our southern and eastern counties ahead of a cold front that will be arriving in our nw cwa late tonight. Saturday: The final day of 2016 will feature a clipper system tracking into the northern Great Lakes region, while the cold front pushes across the remainder of the cwa during the morning.
Otherwise, cool tonight with the cloud cover in place but warmer with more sunshine on Saturday. Cold front make enough progress towards I-20 to trim temperatures down a little.
At the surface lee trough has developed along/east of front range, and SW winds are already beginning to moderate air mass in place over our CWA. Today: Strong WAA will be in place as lee trough shifts eastward in response to downslope over CO/WY. Expect mild and dry conditions, highs in the lower 60s.
A cold front will begin to makes its way south toward the very end of the TAF period starting around 10Z at KDHT/KGUY and around 12Z at KAMA. /Issued 218 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016/ Upper level pattern will become more zonal today which will encourage a surface lee-side trough to strengthen to our west. This trough will encourage southwest surface winds to increase today. Upper level low off of the southern California coast will move this way, but it will weaken as it does so. What is left of this low will move across the panhandles on New Year's Eve.
the high temps appear in the ball park and the remainder of the short term forecast appears on track for now. and KBDN this morning due to a cold front moving through the area will end around 20Z as the front moves south of the region.
These breezy conditions are expected to continue through the evening into early Saturday morning before weakening and veering ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will push a Pacific cold front through late tonight into early Saturday.
The accompanying warm front had already moved east into eastern ND. Westerly winds increased behind the warm front and temperatures had risen into the 20s and 30s (some 40s) across western and central ND. The trailing cold front had entered northwestern ND and winds had increased to 25 to 30 sustained winds with gusts to around 40 mph. The warmer air today may have melted any snow drifts on roadways.
Winter Storm will impact holiday travel Friday night through An upper level low will move slowly east along the US-Mexico border today.
In addition to the low level moisture, model soundings also indicate steep boundary layer lapse rates that should allow modest December daytime warming to generate additional stratus coverage late morning through early afternoon. After that, warmer and drier air will begin to move in from the central Plains on backing low level flow. Temperatures finally climbed above the freezing mark at DTW (34 degrees), snapping an 8 day stretch below.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer given the flow, but will be warmest in the SE half of the CWA where lower 50s will be the story. A minor upper level wave and an associated weak cold front will be approaching Friday night, with warm/moist air advection occurring ahead of the front.
/Issued 501 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016/ Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show closed low off the California/Baja coast beginning to move inland. This low will weaken and open up as it to moves into the desert southwest before ejecting out onto the plains by Friday. Scattered light showers are expected to develop along the associated surface cold front as it nears then moves through the region.
425 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016 Models continue to advertise cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 20s, to the mid 30s. A strong inversion over much to the CWA today is the cause for the cooler temps. It appears as though the warmest temperatures today will occur over our higher terrain areas, while valleys are a few degrees cooler.
Relatively benign weather is expected through most of the short term period as downslope flow keeps our lower levels dry and flat ridging prevents any decent upper forcing. Temperatures the next couple days should generally max out in the 30s with Friday being the cooler of the two with less wind. Could see some light precipitation move into our far western high terrain Friday afternoon or night as Pacific trof moves inland. So we expect the only measurable precipitation to be in the high country if anywhere.
Some patchy drizzle in addition to some very light showers was observed across the south half of the region on radar, which was associated with the cold front. /17/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: As of this morning, a low pressure system spinning over the Baja Peninsula was bringing rain to parts of the Desert Southwest. Drier air behind the cold front and weak ridging aloft will allow for skies to clear somewhat and temperatures to climb back into the upper 50s to low 60s today.
VFR/MVFR ceilings prevail today except for potential IFR ceilings from mid morning through about midday as a cold front approaching from the west moves through the area. An upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic tonight followed by broad ridging over the Plains beginning to build into the region. Highs today range from the lower/mid 60s inland to the upper 60s close to the coast. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland with a few cooler spots to the lower 50s at the coast.
Models continue to advertise cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 20s, to the mid 30s. A strong inversion over much to the CWA today is the cause for the cooler temps. It appears as though the warmest temperatures today will occur over our higher terrain areas, while valleys are a few degrees cooler.
501 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show closed low off the California/Baja coast beginning to move inland. This low will weaken and open up as it to moves into the desert southwest before ejecting out onto the plains by Friday. Scattered light showers are expected to develop along the associated surface cold front as it nears then moves through the region.
A strong low pressure system was located over southern CA this morning. Mountains will likely see several inches of accumulation, but this is likely to be a sub-advisory event in the high country. Latest models remain consistent in tracking an area of low pressure thru the intermountain west and into the Dakotas over Christmas weekend.
623 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016 The current surface map has a large high pressure centered over the central plains and a ridge into MN and northwestern WI. Much drier air associated with this high has been steadily eroding clouds from west to east. Upper level ridging and warm air advection will already begin in the wake of this system, with H5 heights building throughout the end of the work week.
Cold and dry today under high pressure aloft. Expecting dense fog to dissipate by late morning as winds pick up, with patchy fog and low stratus to linger into the afternoon in the Lower Treasure, Caldwell and west. Temperatures will hold steady today around 10-15 degrees below normal, warming slightly on Friday as a weak warm front passes through the region. Therefore, have removed sleet and freezing rain from the forecast for the Snake River Plain Friday afternoon as we now expect all precipitation to fall as snow.
behind the cold front that moved through the state. Today Through Friday Night An upper low pressure system is off the coast of southern California. As the upper low moves into the southwest U. The low opens into a trough overnight and moves through New Mexico, then through Texas on Friday. Cloud cover is decreasing across south Arkansas this morning as a cold front works through the state.
A weak front will pass through the region today as a broad trough passes through the Eastern CONUS.
Weak high pressure across the CWA early this morning will continue to weaken as a low moves across the northeast and pushes a weak, dry front into the southeast. Highs will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s, with the lower 70s across the Big Bend where clouds are likely to scatter out this afternoon.
459 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016 Surface ridging will slide eastward today, prompting a return to a southwesterly low level flow. Snow accumulation overnight will be light, generally a couple of tenths, perhaps up to half an inch through the lower Big Sioux and MO river corridors. Temperatures on Friday also likely to get up to or a little above freezing so roads will remain on the warmer side.
928 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2016 Weak High pressure over the region will slowly break down ahead of an approaching cold front. For Tonight expect dry cold frontal passage with periods of mid/high clouds and partly cloudy skies.