Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The Evening Update: Radar echoes and surface front now about 40-60 miles off the N Coast at press time, will be moving inland with the upper trof a little after midnight. NAM 3km weakens the front and forecast radar echoes by the time it reaches our CWA, as the trof stretches the dynamics Nwd into the Pac NW. HREF cloud/vsby progs suggest the highest probability of IFR wx will develop toward morning/sunrise from KMOD up to Lodi to along/W of I-5 in Sac Co.
819 PM MST Sat Jan 9 2021 Updated low temperature forecast across the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley where stratus is entrenched.
234 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Dry weather and seasonably warm temperature will persist until the approach of a late week cold front. This should dissipate fairly quickly, but variable high cloudiness can be expected as upper moisture flows through the flank of a Great Lakes to Srn Plains trough.
However, should that brief area of clearing expand over most of the area over the next few hours, look for overnight lows to drop even further into potentially the low to mid 20s. For Sunday, minor ridging aloft should aid in finally scattering and clearing the low cloud deck. Will stay with cooler raw numbers for highs in the lower 40s for most areas, perhaps a bit warmer in our eastern counties where clearing is most likely.
Slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions are also expected for Sunday. As this high pressure slides southeast winds begin to shift to out of the west later this afternoon. Sunday will also see warmer temperatures than today, with highs ranging from the lower 30s across the Turtle Mountains, to the lower 40s across the southwest.
1046 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low just southeast of the four-corners will continue to move east-southeast through New Mexico overnight then east across north Texas Sunday. The upper low will be moving across north central Texas at 11/00Z, but will still expect some snow into Sunday night on the northwest side of this low.
A low pressure system will move eastward along the Gulf coast, such that an increase in cloud cover from the southwest can be expected later tonight.
/issued 414 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021/ VFR conditions should prevail through the overnight hours across our entire airspace but the current high thin cirrus is just the beginning of a significant moisture return setting up across our airspace as a vigorous upper level trough makes it appearance on Sunday into Sunday Night.
High level clouds continue to stream into the region from the west in advance of a strong upper level low. Relatively dry low layers will keep ceilings mainly VFR throughout this TAF period, with the exceptions of far southern TAF sites KMLC and KFSM which could see some MVFR ceilings tomorrow afternoon and overnight as the low passes close by those sites. All sites should remain dry as well with MLC and FSM possible seeing some flurries or light rain on the northern fridges of the precipitation shield. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase overnight as strong upper low moves into western Texas.
312 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through the weekend.
323 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic region today. An area of low pressure is developing over Texas this morning.
Mid/high clouds will continue to increase overnight as strong upper low moves into western Texas.
1020 PM EST Sat Jan 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through Sunday.
/issued 321 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021/ As of 3AM we're seeing all snow across the region, as the potent upper level low tracks from southeast New Mexico right now into central Texas by late this afternoon. The closed low is currently moving slightly slower than earlier guidance suggested, which helped to slow down surface cooling. Once the system sweeps east by early evening temperatures will drop off considerably, with lows eventually reaching the lower to mid teens on the Caprock and low to mid 20s east of the escarpment. Weak upper trough overhead Monday combined with snow cover south will help keep temperatures well below normal with the coldest forecast highs across the southern row of counties where snow cover will be most persistent.
945 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build over the region, influencing our weather through Monday.
625 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through the weekend.
On the northern side of precipitation shield later this morning through this afternoon, there will likely be a mixture of snow and rain as temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be marginal. Lingering snow showers with minimal accumulation potential will be possible through the evening across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas as upper low progresses eastward.
The NAM and GFS MOS numbers have been too warm for daytime highs and too cold for nighttime lows with the low level stratus cloud deck limiting the normal diurnal swings in temperatures. An upper level low over southern NM early this morning will move eastward through the Southern Plains today and tonight, then through AR Monday morning and into the TN Valley region by Monday evening. High temperatures will be warmer on Monday as the wind backs around to a southwest direction and more solar insolation is expected by afternoon.
413 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 The upper trough has moved off the the southeast, with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area. At the surface, the high pressure area that was located over the eastern Dakotas continues to slide southward, being located over eastern Nebraska early this morning. Southwesterly winds have already developed over the forecast area and will push drier air into the region today, eroding the low stratus from west to east and producing mostly sunny skies this afternoon.
335 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure centered over Nebraska early this morning.
520 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 (Today and tonight) The WV satellite imagery is indicating a strong upper level low across southern New Mexico. The combination of strong lift as the upper level low moves across west and north Texas and the entire atmospheric column falling below freezing will produce several hours of moderate to heavy snow mainly northeast of a Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba County line. Further south, along the I-10 corridor, due to warmer surface temperatures, mainly a mix of rain/snow with local accumulation of 1 inch possible.
Infrared satellite imagery at midnight showed the closed cyclone spinning over south central New Mexico, with radar imagery showing light snow in progress exactly where it was forecast to be, across Morton, Stanton, Grant, Stevens and Seward counties. Around sunrise/7 am, forcing for ascent will quickly end as the parent cyclone digs southeastward through the Permian Basin of West Texas. Stratus will gradually erode daylight Sunday, but with poor mixing/light winds, low January insolation, and high pressure at the surface it will not be a quick process. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing on the fresh snow cover across the southwest zones. Broad ridging and rising heights will deliver full sunshine by afternoon.
410 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure system builds into central New York State today before shifting east and offshore tomorrow.
In fact, that same surface feature will serve to suppress precipitation associated with low pressure moving east across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
357 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 Cloudy skies are keeping temperatures a bit warmer than expected again this morning. If anything significant has changed in the forecast, temperatures Monday look slightly cooler, so afternoon precipitation is a bit more likely to remain snow instead of changing over to rain. Expect afternoon highs in the low to middle 30s. However, temperatures just 400-500 feet off the ground will remain near freezing so snow will not likely have time to melt before reaching the ground. As mentioned above, if temperatures remain cooler and snow does not change over or mix with rain tomorrow afternoon, totals could trend towards 2 inches in portions of North-central and North-East Mississippi. Probably the biggest concern with the precipitation over the next 24-36 hours is the possibility of melted snow and or rain freezing on area roads Sunday night.
Monday should't be any different, especially since we won't experience compressional heating due to the lack of an actual cold frontal passage.
215 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 Overview: An upper level low presently situated invof the NM/TX border will progress east across TX (Today-Tonight) and the Deep South (Mon-Mon night). An upper level ridge along the central/southern Pacific coast will extend eastward through the Intermountain West into the Central Plains Mon-Mon night.
306 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 300 PM CST Some areas received a welcome reprieve from the dreary, cloudy days of late as the thin cloud layers was able to scatter out for a time today thanks to high pressure nosing in from the northwest and some subtle drying from the east/northeast.
High pressure remains in control, situated off to our north. This is continuing to allow cooler air to filter in, and should lead to another chilly day with highs only making it into the 60s. There is a feeling of failure watching clouds roll through, but the nature of the cloud cover is making it very difficult to justify any substantial changes to the lows. However, an increasingly meridional flow in the upper levels, we'll see a couple trough axes that drag cold fronts through our area. Nevertheless, they will be noticeable with cooler air filtering in each time.
615 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure maintains hold over the area today and resulting in weak wind fields. Deep layer stability held firm under low and mid level ridging ensures benign conditions exist again today. A period of cold air advection will accompany an elongated trough axis across the area tonight. Moisture depth lacks to support precipitation development, but this process will effectively draw the higher low level moisture back into the region.
Winds were already starting to increase over the western foothills as high pressure works into the region.
A strong and high amplitude ridge across the western U.
Locations east of US-183 will remain under cloudy skies most of the day keeping highs in the low to mid 30s.
942 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
623 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will move over the region with dry conditions into Monday morning. Moisture to return Monday afternoon as another weak low pressure system moves up from the Gulf Coast, with rain likely Monday night.
As weak ridging builds overhead, most models have clouds clearing out by early afternoon along the MO River Valley, with questions on how far east the clearing will reach prior to the sun setting. Similar to the past couple days, areas stuck underneath the cloud coverage will likely max out at around freezing. These warmer temperatures are a result of being able to mix-down warmer air aloft, so expect winds to be on the breezy side with gusts reaching 20-25 mph during the afternoon.
A lack of deep moisture may end up producing a mixture of flurries/freezing drizzle, but have included some small pops with a wintry mix tonight.
321 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 As of 3AM we're seeing all snow across the region, as the potent upper level low tracks from southeast New Mexico right now into central Texas by late this afternoon. The closed low is currently moving slightly slower than earlier guidance suggested, which helped to slow down surface cooling. Once the system sweeps east by early evening temperatures will drop off considerably, with lows eventually reaching the lower to mid teens on the Caprock and low to mid 20s east of the escarpment. Weak upper trough overhead Monday combined with snow cover south will help keep temperatures well below normal with the coldest forecast highs across the southern row of counties where snow cover will be most persistent.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the upper level low moving into West Texas. Surface winds across our CWA are from the east- northeast which are feeding relatively moist air into the low levels around the upper low. The upper low will move across Texas today and a surface boundary will develop beneath it. Cold air will move in overnight and much of the CWA will see freezing temperatures Monday morning.
(Today and tonight) The WV satellite imagery is indicating a strong upper level low across southern New Mexico. The combination of strong lift as the upper level low moves across west and north Texas and the entire atmospheric column falling below freezing will produce several hours of moderate to heavy snow mainly northeast of a Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba County line. Further south, along the I-10 corridor, due to warmer surface temperatures, mainly a mix of rain/snow with local accumulation of 1 inch possible.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO -Forecast Highlights- * Dry through the week along with warming temperatures * Santa Ana wind pattern to continue: Low humidity, gusty winds The weather across Southern California will be dominated by an upper level ridge off the coast which will expand over the state mid/late week while strengthening.
Any semblance of the ridge that was supposed to be over the Northern Rockies early this week continues to disappear.
As the low drives east, the moisture ahead of the system is being advected north northeast with southwest winds aloft. Highs today will warm only into the low to mid 30s with some snow cover and cloudy conditions limiting heating.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 20s. This will help boost temperatures up with highs ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Also, there is a 500mb trough over Texas today, which should make its way to the central Mississippi River valley by Monday morning. This will help to begin to break down the ridges, both aloft and at the surface. This 500 mb trough should also cause some cyclogenesis over the Texas coast today, with that surface feature moving over the northern Gulf waters, and reaching the Louisiana coast, near New Orleans by Monday morning.
615 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
Have received some reports of very light sleet mixed in, which is plausible with some wet bulbing potentially dragging temps above the surface below freezing. Combined with surface temps remaining near to slightly above freezing, still thinking accumulations will be tough.
Satellite currently showing an upper low centered over south central NM. Models have continued the trend south with regard to the upper low with it now forecast to move along the Pecos River today before lifting into north Texas tonight. Snow will end from west to east this afternoon and evening with surface ridging and very cold temperatures settling in. We could even see areas of freezing fog if winds remain light.
630 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast across the southern middle Atlantic through the weekend.
An upper trough moving across the area was producing middle clouds and some virga early this morning. Low clouds should diminish from northwest to southeast this afternoon as slightly drier air arrives behind the trough. Skies may be clear for awhile this evening, but clouds should return overnight ahead of another upper trough. Virga or snow flurries are possible Monday morning as the upper trough moves by.
The more notable feature with this upper trough is the area of mid level clouds, a slight wind shift to the northwest, and lower clouds along and behind it. There are hints of some drier air working its way into the low levels tonight which could help clear skies temporarily.
439 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 Cloudy skies are keeping temperatures a bit warmer than expected again this morning. If anything significant has changed in the forecast, temperatures Monday look slightly cooler, so afternoon precipitation is a bit more likely to remain snow instead of changing over to rain. Expect afternoon highs in the low to middle 30s. However, temperatures just 400-500 feet off the ground will remain near freezing so snow will not likely have time to melt before reaching the ground. As mentioned above, if temperatures remain cooler and snow does not change over or mix with rain tomorrow afternoon, totals could trend towards 2 inches in portions of North-central and North-East Mississippi. Probably the biggest concern with the precipitation over the next 24-36 hours is the possibility of melted snow and or rain freezing on area roads Monday night.
242 AM PST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will strengthen across the region with mainly dry conditions, near-average temperatures, and light winds expected. Limited ventilation and inversions will develop into the week as high pressure remains overhead. Temperatures will become unseasonably mild as high pressure reaches peak strength later in the week. High pressure has begun to build into the region, which will allow temperatures to warm above average through the early part of the week.
Once again the low stratus deck has filled back in overnight and will stick around for the better portion of Sunday. While morning lows on Sunday will remain chilly in the upper teens to lower 20s, this clearing may allow our southern forecast area to see warmer afternoon highs in upper 30s with the rest of the area staying closet to the lower 30s. As this trough moves through late Sunday night into Monday, the rest of this cloud coverage is expected to move out by Monday with the exiting feature.
The cut-off area of low pressure that pushed through our area yesterday, bringing gusty north winds has moved eastward out of the Desert Southwest. The departure of that cut-off low leaves us underneath a dry, northwesterly flow aloft that will allow cooler temperatures to funnel into our region. "Cooler" to mean just a few degrees below seasonal averages, making today the coolest day of the forecast period.
950 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
High pressure stretching eastward across the US today will veer NW winds NE through this afternoon. After a chilly start, temperatures are expected to rise into the low to upper 60s from north to south across the forecast area. Improved boating conditions today, as high pressure builds eastward across the US.
544 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 For the 12Z TAFs, light snow will gradually come to an end at the terminal sites from north to south this morning as the upper level low pressure storm system moves further east across west Texas. As the low drives east, the moisture ahead of the system is being advected north northeast with southwest winds aloft. Highs today will warm only into the low to mid 30s with some snow cover and cloudy conditions limiting heating.
749 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 Dry weather and seasonably warm temperature will persist until the approach of a late week cold front. Daytime mixing should erode the lower clouds with time today, but mid and upper level clouds will arrive this afternoon ahead of a Great Lakes trough. The passage of that trough acrs the Upr OH on Monday is expected to only generate more extensive cloudiness with little affect on temperature.
Based on progged thermal profiles, given the increased saturation and mostly sub-freezing profiles aloft that trend somewhat closer to isothermal and moistening warmer lower levels, could see a mix of light rain and snow with some possible sleet or snow grains for early to mid Monday morning across a decent portion of north GA. Good news is that it should be light and stay above freezing at sfc for most locations with no expected impacts aside from the far northern higher elevations. Any accumulations will likely be limited to the higher elevations of the mountains and should be no more than a couple tenths of an inch.
Patchy freezing is fog is possible across valleys of NE NV this morning.
High clouds are streaming from an upstream system to our west so as we lose the low clouds this morning, mid/high clouds will move in. Low temperatures are tricky where it may be cooler than forecast where breaks develop and warmer where there is overcast skies. There have been breaks to no clouds in the western FL panhandle where temperatures quickly dropped to the low 30s. Should see some sun today as the low level clouds erode but high level clouds will increase ahead of the next system. Lows will be above freezing tonight with readings in the mid 30s to low 40s.
423 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure will move over the region with dry conditions into Monday morning. Moisture to return Monday afternoon as another weak low pressure system moves up from the Gulf Coast, with rain likely Monday night.
221 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 The upper trough has moved off the the southeast, with an upper ridge building to the west of the forecast area. At the surface, the high pressure area that was located over the eastern Dakotas continues to slide southward, being located over eastern Nebraska early this morning. Southwesterly winds have already developed over the forecast area and will push drier air into the region today, eroding the low stratus from west to east and producing mostly sunny skies this afternoon.
425 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 With the pesky trough finally moving out, ridging begins to take hold of the state for the short term forecast, keeping weather conditions tranquil. The only areas expected to get above freezing south be the Big Horn basin and across Johnson County. Areas of fog will again develop in the lower basins overnight, but are not expected to be dense.
Looking at freezing precip across the lakes region in southeast Texas and central Louisiana during the late afternoon/ evening hours. Have received some reports of very light sleet mixed in, which is plausible with some wet bulbing potentially dragging temps above the surface below freezing. Combined with surface temps remaining near to slightly above freezing, still thinking accumulations will be tough.
High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with readings in the upper 20s and lower 30s, while lows tonight dip into the lower to middle 20s.
311 AM MST Sun Jan 10 2021 With the pesky trough finally moving out, ridging begins to take hold of the state for the short term forecast, keeping weather conditions tranquil. The only areas expected to get above freezing south be the Big Horn basin and across Johnson County. Areas of fog will again develop in the lower basins overnight, but are not expected to be dense.
353 AM PST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure over the region will continue to produce fog and low clouds in the San Joaquin Valley, with mainly clear skies elsewhere, through the week. The high pressure ridge will be the main player in our weather forecast through the end of this week. Areas outside the San Joaquin Valley will experience mainly clear skies under the high pressure ridge with afternoon highs trending a bit warmer than normal through the week.
A storm system brushing by to our northeast will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures over the weekend.
603 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 High pressure system builds into central New York State today before shifting east and offshore tomorrow.