Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
355 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND REACH SOUTHEAST IOWA BEFORE STALLING OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE THE NEXT S/WV.
AND CONTINUE ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE UPPER LOW IS NOW LOCATED OVER NERN CO WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SERN WY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN WY AND ERN MT. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ON THURSDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
649 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG WILL BE MUCH OF LOCALIZED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW. WE PEGGED THE HIGHER POPS FOR MOSTLY RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING THEN TAPERED POPS DOWN A BIT INTO CHANCE CATEGORY TOMORROW EVENING.
359 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THU.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A PASSING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD THAT DEVELOPED PREDOMINATELY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD TODAY TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AT 19Z.
103 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. PREV DISCUSSION A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW- LEVEL WIND THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN OHIO AND THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS GEORGIA WITH VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
325 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY.
112 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A VAST AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF ITS POSITION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENS LEAVING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF POSITION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL WISE THE 500MB NW RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW HAS FALLEN APART. WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW SW OF THE REGION ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS NE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND IT. THOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RIVER VALLEY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS IN EASTERN VERMONT WHICH SAW FOG OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A BIT SLUGGISH TO CLIMB, TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ARE WELL INTO THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. WHILE RIDGING FROM 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BOSTON MA CONTINUES, SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO STARTING TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY FROM THE GREENS WESTWARD.
118 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 CHA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOWEST CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE AREA WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A FEW MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT INCREASING JUST A BIT IN COVERAGE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
318 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RESIDE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW.
505 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD ASA BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCEOF THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFLECTSFORECAST POPS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
254 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RESULTING IN COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER WEATHER.
330 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
255 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD, AND OFF THE COAST, WITH DRY WEATHER GIVING WAY TO A FEW SHOWERS, BY LATER MONDAY.
255 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 244 PM CDT BREAKS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO ADDITIONAL MID AND LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTH IN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THERMAL 850/925 RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK NEAR 80 WITH CONTINUED MID-LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
1234 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
131 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AVIATION SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY.
301 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
The area was caught in between quick moving upper flow over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi valley and ridging across most of the southern U. , while upper level energy and a closed low remain trapped within the ridge. Some of this energy may interact with the low level moisture today for scattered showers across the eastern half of the forecast area and will be the main focus in the short term. Temperatures may reach the low 80s once again out west with more sunshine expected.
120 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF PASSING IMPULSES WILL KEEP CLOUDS HEALTHY ACROSS THE REGION.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH WESTERN NEB/CENTRAL SD. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH OK. AND WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE. MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN AB/SASK. 850MB MOISTURE WAS MAKING A SLOW RETURN AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN US. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER.
240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Water vapor imagery depicts a broad region of moisture advection from the south extending into southern and central Missouri associated with a dissipating upper low. This will maintain afternoon highs in the upper 70's to low 80's for the southern CWA with temperatures expected to peak in the low to mid-80's for northwest Missouri.
353 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER DESSERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN OVER WEST TEXAS. IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TO CLOSE OUT SEPTEMBER WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER WEST TEXAS.
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS FIXED ALONG THE MARINE ZONES OR JUST OFFSHORE WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
146 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON COAST.
HOLES COULD ALLOW DENSE FOG FORMATION AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VOLATILITY WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND SUBSEQUENT EXTENT OF INTERACTION WITH W GULF SYSTEM AND UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE N TIER STATES IN THE SHORT TERM.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY. ALOFT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE.
554 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IOWA TO TEXAS WITH A CLOSED LOW IN IT OVER TEXAS. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT A BIT TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BUILD IN.
155 PM PDT SUN SEP 27 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 TEMPERATURES ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE JUMPED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
220 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A FEW MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT INCREASING JUST A BIT IN COVERAGE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 35N/137W AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
632 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VOLATILITY WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND SUBSEQUENT EXTENT OF INTERACTION WITH W GULF SYSTEM AND UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE N TIER STATES IN THE SHORT TERM.
253 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
Chilly night tonight with many valleys reaching freezing or. High pressure has begun to build back over western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon, leaving a very dry airmass behind. By Monday morning, most valley locations will see temperatures at or below freezing.
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOS MAY BE KEYING ON THE HIGH PWATS/MEAN RH VALUES ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY MORNING. AND HERE IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GO (NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME). THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION (IF ANY) WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS UPPER LOW IS WELL EAST OF AREA. A BIT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
340 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A positive tilt upper ridge axis extended from the southwestern US into the central plains. An upper level trough was moving east across west central Canada and the northwest US. A weak upper low was nearly stationary across south TX. Tonight and Monday, The upper level trough across southern Canada and the northwest US will move east across northern plains on Monday. Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 80s.
DIFFUSE REMNANT UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THIS PERIOD BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL. AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
THE JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TOMORROW. AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
520 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFLECTS FORECAST POPS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
350 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S OVER THE REMAINDER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAD TRENDED TO NEUTRAL TO NV (FROM OFFSHORE EARLIER IN THE DAY) AND REMAINED ABOUT 3 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY ON MON. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE CUT-OFF LOWS INCREASINGLY CLOUD THE PICTURE.
310 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROAM AROUND THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
348 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING/ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELUCTANT TO GIVE WAY BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN LINE WITH LATEST BLEND OF WARMER MAV/COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF LATE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DROPS FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CANADA.
IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
POISED TO APPROACH THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER KEYS. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE ONLY NEAR 80F.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST AROUND THE LOW THRU WRN INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ONE SHORT WAVE NOTICED IN WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO CENTRAL-NRN MANITOBA WITH TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST AND MEETING UP WITH THE TROUGH THRU NW ND INTO FAR SE SASK/SW MANITOBA. ACTUAL COLD FRONT A BIT EAST OF MAIN SHORT WAVE AND THUS ALONG THE FRONT NO PRECIP OCCURRING AND MOISTURE IS MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WHILE SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN WILL SEE TEMPS APPROACHING 80 OR INTO THE LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN. COOLER AIR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
326 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS. ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
209 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. A WEAK LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF MONKEY ISLAND/HOLLY BEACH AREA WITH A WARM FRONT PENDANT AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
352 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF TX MOST LIKELY CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL BEND. A NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
After a chilly start of the day, temperatures will be running a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
AROUND A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MID AND UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WOBBLE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AND A DISTURBANCE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW ON MONDAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPREAD INCREASED RAIN CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD INTO AREAS EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WACO THROUGH THE FORECAST. /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CONUS REMAINS A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL REGION OF TEXAS. AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE LATEST SET OF MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE COUNTERPART WILL DRAW A DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
MEDIUM LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
Winds will become gusty at 15 to 30 mph with an associated cold front. For Wednesday, expect clearing skies behind the upper wave and highs in the low to mid 60s.
H500 UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTING THE PERIOD ARE THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH FLOW ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING.
125 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Weakening upper level system lifting north northeast within broad trough axis this afternoon. another fast moving upper disturbance swings through aforementioned trough axis tonight. and points further east tomorrow as the wave departs within the retreating trough axis.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
150 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY (NEARLY 10 MB WITHIN ONLY A 6 HOUR PERIOD) WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL PUSH TWO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE COLDER PUSH COMES STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING FREEZING HEIGHTS. AND SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOWERING FREEZING HEIGHTS.
408 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A RAINY WINDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS.
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS MY EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES. JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from New England southwestward to the Central Plains. Once the airmass moistens sufficiently and an upper-level trough approaching from the west provides increasing synoptic lift, rain will become widespread across the entire area by mid to late morning through the afternoon. Thanks to the rain and a brisk easterly wind of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures today will be considerably cooler than yesterday with readings remaining in the 50s in most locations.
410 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HAVE ONLY CLIMBED A HAND FULL OF DEGREES THUS FAR. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO THE TN VALLEY. WILL MONITOR TEMPS FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AND BREEZY WINDS ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT CONDITIONS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -DZ IS PSBL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WITH CIGS IMPROVING BUT REMAINING IN THE 1500-3000 FT LAYER.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND AN ABNORMALLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO REMAIN QUIET AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN AND COMBINES WITH AN UPPER S/W TO THE SW TO PRODUCE THE SEASONS FIRST WINTER SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE IMMERSED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING A STRONG PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW FOR A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH WILL BE ON THE RIDGETOPS AND LEE SIDE /WEST FACE/ OF THE RIDGES. AS MAIN PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO JUST OVER 30 MPH AT THE HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES IN PIKE AND HARLAN COUNTIES SO FAR TODAY. TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET SETS UP TONIGHT AT THE LEVEL OF THE THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS NEAR THE VA BORDER. CURRENTLY WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE HIGH WINDS TO MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN TOPS ABOVE 3K FEET. IF THIS OCCURS SOME OF THE HIGH WINDS COULD BE PUSHED DOWN TO VALLEY LEVEL. HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
230 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 850mb thermal ridging in place over the region as well as southwesterly downslope winds have helped temperatures climb above normal into the upper 70s and 80s across the area this afternoon, with highs more similar to those in late September than late October. Lows will be near and just above normal overnight tonight, though a change is on the way as a cold front is progged to sink southward through the area late tonight/early Wednesday ahead of a broad midlevel trough currently in place over the western CONUS. Gusty NE winds in the wake of the front will usher cooler temperatures into the region, with highs expected to be in the 70s across much of the area, with middle to upper 60s possible across higher terrain and lower 80s in the Rio Grande Valley.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THU.