Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s over the plains, the low 40s over the mountain valleys, and the 30s to 40s over the mountains. The limiting factor over that region will be the upper level ridge raising heights over the region, which would stabilize the region of concern.
522 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 South Florida will be located between weak ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper low over the eastern Bahamas. High pressure over the northern Atlantic waters will allow the steering flow to become more easterly over South Florida. Our focus during this time remains on Tropical Cyclone Dorian as it moves through the region. Tropical Cyclone Dorian may then impact boating conditions for late week into the weekend, with hazardous conditions possible.
912 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 A cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this evening. The cold front that we have been anticipating for several days is fairly ill-defined. Wind has already shifted from the North across most of the area, but the lower dew points and cooler temperatures remain in Missouri. Tomorrow, mostly clear skies will still allow temperatures to climb into the middle 80s, but dew points will be around 10 degrees cooler. Coupled with a North breeze, it should feel a bit cooler tomorrow.
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Latest RAP model shows mid level ridging dominating the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface a bubble high in the Gulf and troughing east of FL will maintain light west and northwest lower level flow overnight. High pressure resides over the waters for the next few days with westerly or northwesterly winds gradually becoming easterly.
At 19Z, a midlevel low was spinning over Ontario with a trough axis rotating around the cyclonic flow across the Upper Midwest. Midlevel ridging was in place over the western CONUS. However, locations in central and north-central Kansas may notice a slight increase in temperatures due to a return of southerly winds on the west side of the departing ridge.
510 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Updated Aviation High pressure will strengthen over the Northern Rockies and Montana for dry conditions with near average temperatures today, warming to above seasonal averages on Wednesday.
Stacked low pressure is spinning over western Ontario this afternoon. A sfc cold front is quickly pushing in from the northwest, and scattered showers have developed just ahead of the boundary. It is a very moist airmass, with sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s and PWATs around 2 inches. The upper trough axis swings through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
731 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 A frontal boundary will linger in the region through Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
A deepening low pressure system was located over northwest Ontario this afternoon and will slowly drift north to Hudson Bay. The longwave trough extends south toward the Ohio River Valley and will become more amplified as a western jet/ridge pushes in from the west.
Will be a coolish night with lows falling into the lower 40s over the western valleys. Shallow upper level ridging should keep dry conditions in place through Wednesday night. A cold front will drop into the region late Wednesday night.
Lows tonight should be 5-10F degrees warmer compared to this morning with temperatures only dropping into the mid 60s. Dewpoints look to steadily rise into the low/mid 70s through the day Thursday with afternoon highs soaring back toward the seasonal normals with readings into the mid/upper 80s. These conditions also will support decent destabilization through the day across the area ahead of an advancing cold front that models show tracking into north central KS by late afternoon/early Thursday evening as a mid-level trough dives southward across the Northern Plains.
Showers may linger in the ridges through the morning, but will wane quickly. Clear sky and light/calm wind overnight will allow efficient radiational cooling, dropping much of the area into the low/mid 50s Thursday morning.
Overnight, lows will dip into the mid 50s, almost 10 degrees below average for the time of year, enjoy! Seasonably cooler temperatures will persist through Wednesday, before a return to southerly flow and modest warm air advection on Thursday.
A pre-frontal line of showers and thunderstorms was moving into mountains as of 3 AM this morning, though the cold front was just moving into the plateau region at that time. Regional surface observations show some low clouds stretching west of the plateau, behind the cold front. For tonight, clear skies and an influx of dry air will mean widespread lows in the low to mid 50s, with only the southern valley areas seeing anything near 60 degrees.
At 19Z, a midlevel low was spinning over Ontario with a trough axis rotating around the cyclonic flow across the Upper Midwest. Midlevel ridging was in place over the western CONUS. However, locations in central and north-central Kansas may notice a slight increase in temperatures due to a return of southerly winds on the west side of the departing ridge. Long range models are showing a cold front associated with a mid- level disturbance over southern Canada moving into the area Thursday night.
This coupled with an upper level short wave trough moving this way in a northwest flow aloft should help to increase the shower and thunderstorm chances. Another weak short wave trough will move across the region in the northwest flow on Thursday night which could help trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms.
331 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will cause isolated to scattered showers and storms to move onshore this morning, then become a little bit more numerous as it moves inland during the afternoon.
Otherwise building sfc ridging influences along with prevailing dry NWLY flow pattern aloft will provide VFR/SKC conditions thru 29/06Z.
/issued 522 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019/ South Florida will be located between weak ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper low over the eastern Bahamas. High pressure over the northern Atlantic waters will allow the steering flow to become more easterly over South Florida. Our focus during this time remains on Tropical Cyclone Dorian as it moves through the region. Tropical Cyclone Dorian may then impact boating conditions for late week into the weekend, with hazardous conditions possible.
A tight pressure gradient between a deep low near Hudson Bay and a large high pressure area centered over the Ozarks will keep breezy conditions over the forecast area today. Highs will be below normal today near 75, but will warm to around 80 Thursday as return flow along the west side of the high pressure area spreads warmer air back over the area.
High pressure is in place, with the edge of cyclonic flow aloft just far enough north of Iowa to keep the instability and bouts of light rain from this Fall weather pattern aloft out of our picture. The result, like yesterday is an afternoon of mild temperatures in the mid 70s north to upper 70s south, and dewpoints in the lower 50s. Tonight, another quiet night is expected, as temperatures cool to the lower 50s east, and lower 60s west.
334 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 High pressure building into the region will keep the quiet weather pattern in place over the Midwest through today and tonight. Temps are expected to climb only into the upper 70s today, a degree or two cooler than yesterday and breezy. As the upper trough/low rotates through the Great Lakes region, the 500 mb flow pattern gets a little more zonal by the end of the week. As the southwesterly flow moderates, the warmer air to the southwest opens up to the region, and temperatures climb into the mid 80s by tomorrow.
152 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 A frontal boundary will linger in the region through Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will pass through the forecast area Wednesday night and stall near the coast Thursday. Warm front not showing much progress moving through the CSRA this evening, and remains confined just west of the Savannah River. A stalled boundary/trough will linger along the eastern periphery of the area Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move into the area Wednesday evening and shift east Wednesday night.
Pattern at 500 mb features a closed low over western Ontario, which is part of a trough that extends from Canada southward into the central part of the Plains. There was a ridge from the Pacific Northwest up into western Canada.
315 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 A frontal boundary will linger in the region ahead of a cold front approaching from the west today. The cold front will pass through the forecast area tonight and stall near the coast Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are forecast from tomorrow through the end of the work week, with warming then expected over the upcoming weekend.
238 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Early this Wednesday morning a cold front had moved through Middle Tennessee, sweeping out showers that impacted mainly the northern counties and Plateau last evening. The northwest upper flow bringing our "cool" weather will only last a couple of days, then upper level heights will rise as a western Atlantic ridge bridges with a hot ridge over the southwest states.
The subtropical upper level ridge continues to influence the weather conditions across the area with a dry and hot pattern for the most parts.
352 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 In the upper levels, a large trough drips down through the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure centered over western Kansas continues towards central Kentucky. This high will provide the nice weather for today and the days to come. With the anticyclonic flow around the high blows a northwest wind over the CWA. This moisture, and the cooler temperatures from the clearing skies, have sparked the formation of fog, but a battle is raging because the cold front that moved through yesterday brought drier air with it.
Showers may linger in the ridges through the morning, but will wane quickly. Building high pressure at the surface amid broad ern-CONUS troughing will deliver a cooler, drier airmass to the region with minimal chances for rain thru Thu night. Maxima and minima will be below seasonal average as a result of prolonged upper troughing and efficient radiational cooling at night. A prolonged period with an ern-CONUS trough and wrn-CONUS ridge will maintain temperature near or slightly below seasonal average through the weekend. Restrictions expected early this morning with the passage of the cold front with relatively quick improvement to VFR shortly after daybreak as drier air filters in and mixing commences.
357 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Short wavelength ridge over eastern MT will shift over the Northern Plains today. So warmer for today with more sun. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system over northern BC. Another cold front will move out of Canada late tonight and Thu morning.
Temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s for Denver. The upper level ridge will be centered over the Desert Southwest today, but will build northward into the central Rockies tonight. Northwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level high over the Desert Southwest on Thursday. It will be another very warm late summer day with highs in the lower 90s over northeast Colorado. A cold front backs in late in the day. Easterly low level flow will prevail behind late Thursday's cold front.
Thursday starts off with cooler air working into the region in the wake of a passing cold front.
340 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Today will bring noticeable changes as a cold front sweeps through the area. The cold front will make headway from northwest Georgia this morning all the way through the southeast CWA by this evening.
831 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Seasonally warm summer weather is forecast this week as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 High pressure building across the plains will shift to the Ohio Valley Thursday and result in fair weather through most of the upcoming week in central Illinois. Temperatures will top out in the 70s on Wednesday and in the low to mid 80s the remainder of the work week. A cold front has pushed across Illinois while an expansive ridge extends from the northern Rockies into mid Mississippi River Valley. On Wednesday, sunny skies are expected under the influence of the building ridge with northwest winds continuing and highs only in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will shift across the middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday night and spread along the Ohio Valley Thursday.
252 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Current upper level analysis shows a deep upper trough centered over Ontario. Northwest flow persists over the northern Plains with high pressure/ridging over the west coast. Under clear skies, temperatures will drop into the 40s across most places with some of the higher elevations in the Black Hills near freezing.
The center of the anticyclone will largely remain to our west today, advecting cool, dry low and mid level air into the region, setting up another beautiful day across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
A frontal boundary will then bring low chances for showers and cooler than normal temperatures Thursday night through the upcoming weekend. An upper trough across the Upper Midwest will accelerate east through the Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday bringing an early fall feel to the weather.
Moisture is expected to return on Wednesday before the airmass starts trending drier and warmer again towards the end of the week. A mid level ridge axis remains in place from the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create northwest flow across the area. Latest RAP model shows mid level ridging dominating the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface a bubble high in the Gulf and troughing east of FL will maintain light west and northwest lower level flow overnight. High pressure resides over the waters for the next few days with westerly or northwesterly winds gradually becoming easterly.
Highs on Wednesday cooler than normal in the 60s, as cool as the upper 50s up the Gunflint Trail. After the frontal passage, high pressure builds in with northwest flow advecting cool, dry air to the Upper Midwest.
there will likely be some beach erosion given the high water levels in place. An 850 mb thermal trough arrives behind the front Thursday night.
357 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 The cyclonic circulation around the deep upper level trough that was centered north of Lake Superior, will slowly move eastward and fill today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, especially in western Minnesota where return flow develops. This evening, and overnight, the stronger southwest winds will cause temperatures to rise along and east of the Buffalo Ridge in west/southwest Minnesota. Temperatures on Thursday will likely be reached early in central Minnesota where the cold front will arrive around sunrise. Following the cold front Thursday, cool high pressure will build back in for the weekend.
Overnight lows will generally range from the lower 60s over the higher terrain to the north with lower 70s over the southern portion of the forecast area. Highs will generally range from the lower 80s over the northern higher terrain with upper 80s over the far south.
Showers may linger in the ridges through the morning, but will wane quickly. Building high pressure at the surface amid broad ern-CONUS troughing will deliver a cooler, drier airmass to the region with minimal chances for rain thru Thu night. Maxima and minima will be below seasonal average as a result of prolonged upper troughing and efficient radiational cooling at night. A prolonged period with an ern-CONUS trough and wrn-CONUS ridge will maintain temperature near or slightly below seasonal average through the weekend. Conditions should further deteriorate in showers and isolated thunderstorms with the passage of the cold front tonight.
203 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 A cold front will continue to work through the region this evening. High pressure will then move in allowing for dry conditions.
This energy to our north will result in increased and well-mixed west winds today, followed by a Canadian cold front tonight. Canadian front will bring a shift to N-NE winds beginning this evening, then a cooler air mass will settle in for Thursday.
325 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 High pressure centered NW of the CWA this morning will bring at least 24 hours of dry weather with mostly clear skies to the area. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight in the upper 50s east to low 60s west.
/issued 912 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/ A cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this evening. The cold front that we have been anticipating for several days is fairly ill-defined. Wind has already shifted from the North across most of the area, but the lower dew points and cooler temperatures remain in Missouri. Tomorrow, mostly clear skies will still allow temperatures to climb into the middle 80s, but dew points will be around 10 degrees cooler. Coupled with a North breeze, it should feel a bit cooler tomorrow.
1023 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2019 The upper trough is shifting eastward into the Great Lakes region, while a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. As low-level winds turn southwesterly Wednesday, temperatures will warm back into the 80s; however, another cold front will cross the region Thursday.
346 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 A quiet and warmer Wednesday highlights the short term forecast. A warm front will propagate across western North Dakota this afternoon. Favored the warmer edge of the 00-03 UTC guidance suites for high temperatures today given west to southwest surface winds supporting good mixing. A cold front will quickly propagate across western and central North Dakota tonight.
As for weekend rain chances, the position of the ridge will still have a great impact on how robust those chances will be.
354 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 A nicer day in store with less wind and warmer temperatures as surface ridging shifts to the east and the low level flow becomes west/southwesterly. Models are in good agreement with a cold front sliding across our area on Thursday morning, exiting our far southeast by 18Z. It will still be decently warm on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s north of Interstate 90 to lower 80s through the lower MO River corridor into northwestern IA.
This high will keep conditions dry over the next couple days. Dry and warm conditions continue into Thursday as the high pressures system slowly drifts to the southeast.
An upper ridge and low level offshore flow will bring very warm and dry weather today.
A cold front is working southeast across east Kentucky this morning with a band of showers about to exit southeast Kentucky. The fog will burn off quickly after sunrise, as we start to mix into the northwesterly winds behind the exiting cold front. With cross over temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 50s heading into tonight and low temperatures likely into the lower 50s, this should set up some locally dense valley fog. A beautiful Thursday is on tap as high pressure set up overhead and afternoon highs top out in the upper 70s after the cool start. A cold front will be moving southeast through the Midwest under the upper level trough.
Upper level ridge strengthens during the day and precip chances should gradually shift farther south and decrease during the afternoon.
Slightly cooler airmass will bring down temperatures a bit today but daytime highs are still expected to come in several degrees above normal. A quieter weather pattern starts on Thursday as norcal remains under southwest flow aloft between high pressure over the southwest U. and upper troughing off the coast.
326 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Current upper level analysis shows a deep upper trough centered over Ontario. Northwest flow persists over the northern Plains with high pressure/ridging over the west coast. Under clear skies, temperatures will drop into the 40s across most places with some of the higher elevations in the Black Hills near freezing.
The high will slide east over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys tonight. The high will move off to our east for Thursday, and this will bring a return of southwest flow, along with increasing moisture and temperatures.
Today Through Thursday Night Drier and cooler air continues to slowly filter south across the state early this Wed morning as a cold front drops south across the state.
Onshore flow will increase through Thursday for cooler weather and increasing marine clouds.
Temperatures will reach the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast this afternoon.
214 AM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Very warm summer weather is forecast this week as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
401 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 It is cooler across the area this morning, especially for those who received some much needed rainfall during the evening and overnight hours. Rain chances will linger into tonight, with the best chance overnight across the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. By Thursday, southerly flow will return as upper ridging to the west begins building eastward across the region.
1029 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Water vapor imagery and CIMMS mean-layer analyses place deep ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and also southeast of Bermuda.
Short wavelength ridge over eastern MT will shift over the Northern Plains today. So warmer for today with more sun. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system over northern BC. Another cold front will move out of Canada late tonight and Thu morning.
453 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 The cyclonic circulation around the deep upper level trough that was centered north of Lake Superior, will slowly move eastward and fill today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, especially in western Minnesota where return flow develops. This evening, and overnight, the stronger southwest winds will cause temperatures to rise along and east of the Buffalo Ridge in west/southwest Minnesota. Temperatures on Thursday will likely be reached early in central Minnesota where the cold front will arrive around sunrise. Following the cold front Thursday, cool high pressure will build back in for the weekend.
600 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019 High pressure building into the region will keep the quiet weather pattern in place over the Midwest through today and tonight. Temps are expected to climb only into the upper 70s today, a degree or two cooler than yesterday and breezy. As the upper trough/low rotates through the Great Lakes region, the 500 mb flow pattern gets a little more zonal by the end of the week. As the southwesterly flow moderates, the warmer air to the southwest opens up to the region, and temperatures climb into the mid 80s by tomorrow.
A quiet and warmer Wednesday highlights the short term forecast. A warm front will propagate across western North Dakota this afternoon. Favored the warmer edge of the 00-03 UTC guidance suites for high temperatures today given west to southwest surface winds supporting good mixing. A cold front will quickly propagate across western and central North Dakota tonight.
937 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Northwest flow along the eastern flank of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting a decent amount of widely scattered shower activity over the coastal waters extending ashore across much of the area this morning, particularly across northern and central locations.
with winds less than 10 kts sustained as high pressure drops south into the state. Today Through Thursday Night Drier and cooler air continues to slowly filter south across the state early this Wed morning as a cold front drops south across the state.
451 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Current upper level analysis shows a deep upper trough centered over Ontario. Northwest flow persists over the northern Plains with high pressure/ridging over the west coast. Under clear skies, temperatures will drop into the 40s across most places with some of the higher elevations in the Black Hills near freezing.