Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
51 inches and satellite imagery continues to show a pretty dry layer/Saharan Dust in the low levels, but a big part of the of is across north and east of the state. However, a weak trough in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will try to push tropical moisture into the area that could aid the development of showers and storms along the sea breeze this afternoon, especially in areas in the immediate coast. The highest chances for convection remain south of the I-4 corridor with VCTS conditions possible at PGD/FMY/RSW. An area of high pressure remains situated over Florida and looks to strengthen over the next couple days. As the ridge strengthens, drier more stable air remains in control decreasing the chance for convection.
535 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE A mix of VFR to IFR cigs prevail across the area this morning, with the highest probabilities for IFR at KLVS and KTCC.
556 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer. The high will drift off the east coast early in the upcoming week.
543 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Available surface observations place a broad area of high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Azores in the eastern Atlantic, with the spine of the respective ridge penetrating the Florida Spacecoast. Outside of any rain cooled communities, temperatures are generally in the lower 80s. Drier air will once again propagate westeward behind the departing trough, resulting in overall rainfree conditions for Sundary through earlier the week.
146 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 19z surface analysis had weak low over western ND with trough into central NE. Along/ahead of trough, 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed with eroding cap. Behind trough, cap is gone with less than 1000J/kg MLCAPE as dry air continues to mix down/advect into the CWA per surface observations. High-based -TSRA possible just behind trough through early this evening, especially near the Black Hills.
Expect highs Sunday to range from the low 70s north central to the mid 80s south.
126 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer.
The western ridge/eastern trough upper level pattern that has kept the area under at least modestly cyclonic flow and milder temperatures in recent days looks to last into the early part of the week before the upper level pattern flattens and becomes somewhat more quasizonal, allowing heights over the region to build and deflecting the primary storm track to the north. Some model disagreement on the potential for convection in the hot and humid airmass/perhaps a ridge rider or two late week will necessitate some low pops, but confidence in these is lower than early week chances. Discussion: High pressure over IN and OH will drift east toward the middle Atlantic states through this TAF period. This will result in light winds this afternoon becoming southerly on Sunday as the high departs to the east.
The front that bas been quasi-stationary over the Midsouth for the last couple of days will lift back to the north tomorrow as a warm front.
An inverted trough that moved through the area yesterday now resides across the central Gulf of Mexico. Although this feature is far removed from us, relatively speaking, there is still a decent fetch of moisture behind this trough. This trough will continue to slide westward and away from our area and drier air to our east will temporarily replace it. Beyond Sunday night, the ridge will weaken slightly and shift south as an upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region and digs equatorward.
Tomorrow, west-northwesterly flow flow aloft sets up as the upper ridge begins migrating westward.
1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 (Rest of Today) Morning model data suggests that the TN Valley remains along the northern periphery of a narrow but strong subtropical ridge connecting two distinct mid-level highs across northern portions of CA/NV and the central North Atlantic. Present indications are that convection will initially develop across the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN (perhaps by 17-18Z). Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop further to the northwest later this afternoon, as this portion of the forecast area will be in closer proximity to a broad low-level convergence axis along the southern rim of a weak surface anticyclone migrating eastward through the Upper OH Valley.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure traveling across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to help push some moisture our way through this afternoon.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions overnight.
Models show a frontal boundary to our south lifting north tonight into Sunday morning as an upper level trof moves over the Mississippi valley by 12z Sunday.
A slight change to the synoptic pattern comes tomorrow as a weak inverted trough pushes westward through the Gulf overnight. Not many changes to the temperature forecast with the prevailing upper ridge remaining the dominant feature across the Central CONUS.
Weak trough/surface boundary remains nearly stationary across the Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon, with an enhanced cumulus field from Sweetwater to east of Abilene.
302 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure/ridging in control of the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon is allowing for benign weather conditions to prevail. Did keep things dry tonight into most of Sunday before cold front moves through on Sun night into Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the plains 12z Tue with a trough across New England and one in the Pacific NW. The trough in the Pacific NW moves to the northern Rockies while the ridge moves to the Great Lakes region 12z Wed. With high pressure remaining in control of Upper Michigan into tonight, benign wx conditions will dominate at all three terminals. Some northwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected behind a cold front over the eastern lake near the UP shore.
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Upper level heights sag a bit across the Western High Plains today which will increase southerly flow in the lower levels. The main mid level wave and better warm frontal forcing should be north of the area with a weak axis of instability in central SD, mainly west of the FSD county warning area. The stronger southerly flow will bring warmer lows with more mid and upper 60s for lows. The latest Ensemble output from the EC and GEFS suggest basically keeping chances near and east of the Buffalo Ridge which agrees with the model soundings.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Key Messages: -Warmer Sunday with the potential of late afternoon/evening storms north and west. Plenty of sunshine across the state this afternoon as weak ridging slides to the east along with a tightening pressure gradient in the west. The warm advection continues overnight and into Sunday with thermal ridging in the Plains shifting east toward the state ahead of an advancing boundary. The surface trof enters the west by late afternoon with some question as to whether or not updrafts can overcome a warm layer aloft.
Could see some thunderstorm development across central SD late this evening into the early overnight ahead of an approaching cold front, but latest trends suggest this activity should dissipate as it approaches the MO River Valley. Aforementioned cold front swings across the forecast area on Sunday. With dewpoints also rising into the lower to mid 60s, could see heat index values briefly into the low 100s along the MO River.
Better instability will be shifting eastward with a better chance for scattered thunderstorms over portions of the central by late afternoon and extend into the far southwest by evening along the prefrontal trough.
Tomorrow will be even more tranquil with deep subsidence layer building across W TX and SE NM as ridge extension from the east becomes more pronounced. Lows will remain slightly-above normal with temps in the 70s for most and 60s in the typically cooler spots.
Midlevel heights will build over the area with a strengthening ridge over the western CONUS. While a cold front will move into the area, it's difficult to call it a cold front. Temperatures will rise so greatly at the lowest levels, it'll likely only be noticed if it initiates storms. Moisture convergence along a ridge of theta-e extending from southern Nebraska into Minnesota will prime the atmosphere for potential storms. The RAP projects a peak DCAPE value near 2000 J/kg and a fairly dry sounding in the lower levels which indicates that damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard.
This should keep storms out of the lower elevations with a slight chance of a stray storm or two making it off the higher elevations over portions of eastern Boulder or Larimer counties after 6 pm. Temperatures will continue to upward trend with highs hitting 90 degrees once again on the plains and mainly 70s in the high country. Today, pressure heights will rise a bit as the ridge gradually advances. It will be a bit warmer and drier. There will be good instability over the high country and scattered storms should develop over the mountains by early afternoon. A few storms may impact the adjacent plains through evening but the lower elevations should stay mostly dry. The upper ridge axis to the west of Colorado is excepted to push slowly eastward for the next few days.
High temperatures will mainly be in the low to middle 80s.
Additional convection associated with a low pressure system over North Dakota later tonight should progress southeastward, into northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota between 8-13Z. Additional pcpn will be possible in the far northeast corner of the CWA Sunday afternoon behind the passage for the low pressure system. All areas will see breezy northwesterly winds behind the low pressure, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. High pressure moving into the area on Sunday night will bring light winds and briefly cooler temperatures.
Upper ridge axis stretched from west central to se NM.
Today and Tomorrow: Midlevel heights will build over the area with a strengthening ridge over the western CONUS. While a cold front will move into the area, it won't feel much like one. Temperatures will rise so greatly at the lowest levels, it'll likely only be noticed if it initiates storms. Storm initiation is most likely along a ridge of theta-e that extends from southern Nebraska into Minnesota between 3 and 9 PM. The RAP projects a peak DCAPE value near 2000 J/kg combined with a fairly dry sounding in the lower levels.
352 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Summary: A low pressure brings chances for showers and storms late tonight with a possibility for severe storms Sunday evening.
243 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 18z data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a stationary front running from north Texas east into the Carolinas.
Left highs as is for now; however, readings will come in a few degrees cooler if the clouds are even slower to dissipate.
Slightly warmer 700 mb temperatures suggest maximum temperatures will be some 2 to 5 degrees warmer than today.
208 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer.
A deep layer ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch westward across the western Atlantic and the adjacent northern Gulf through the remainder of the weekend. Lows tonight should range in the lower 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Ridging aloft should also strengthen slightly. Afternoon highs should reach into the lower to mid 90s over inland locations and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate coast.
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 (Issued 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022) Tonight and Sunday: Quiet weather will continue for tonight and Sunday under the influence of departing high pressure.
Upper ridge will be centered near the Four Corners this period with its influence extending across the southern Rockies and adjacent plains.
As of 230 pm, upper-level water vapor imagery shows thunderstorm development along a frontal boundary in east-central Oklahoma along with an amplifying ridging pattern across the western contiguous US.
Cumulus fields formed over the higher terrain late Saturday morning before weak convection developed over the south half of the state where better mid-level moisture exists above 600mb. This leads to widespread highs in the 90s across the lower elevations.
Should confidence increase for heavier totals across far NE OK into far NW AR then headlines may be needed as this region has received the highest event totals. Precip will decrease in coverage during the afternoon with some clearing and slightly warmer temps expected.
(Rest of Today) Morning model data suggests that the TN Valley remains along the northern periphery of a narrow but strong subtropical ridge connecting two distinct mid-level highs across northern portions of CA/NV and the central North Atlantic. Present indications are that convection will initially develop across the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN (perhaps by 17-18Z). Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop further to the northwest later this afternoon, as this portion of the forecast area will be in closer proximity to a broad low-level convergence axis along the southern rim of a weak surface anticyclone migrating eastward through the Upper OH Valley.
Dry and comfortable today and overnight with high pressure centered over the region.
RW A high pressure system over the atlantic will keep the CWA in a summertime pattern with diurnally driven storms during the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s every day. High pressure will remain in control and any actual flow in the upper levels will remain confined over the northern part of the US.
The clouds will limit temperatures today with readings topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s. Surface cold front should still be situated somewhere in the northern Midlands early on Sunday.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 85 73 86 71 / 30 80 40 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 72 83 71 / 20 80 60 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 83 71 82 70 / 30 80 70 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 82 68 79 69 / 20 80 70 80 50.
The rest of the area is expected to be dry however as high pressure continues to take control of the weather across the area. H5 heights continue to rise as the ridge becomes more pronounced and tomorrow will be the warmest day of the forecast period. Model guidance continues to trend warmer tomorrow with much of the Magic Valley and Snake Plain in the upper 90s to around 100. Some of our valley locations within the higher terrain zones (Challis, Stanley, Malad, Malta, etc) will see temps likely into the 90s but the majority of these forecast zones will be cooler and were left out of the advisory. The ridge begins to break down to start the work week allowing things to cool down below climatological norms.
Upper level ridge axis extending west from the Atlantic Ocean will remain in place across the area through Sunday. With rain chances remaining low expect slightly warmer temps in the low to mid 90s across the area tomorrow. Ensemble and cluster analysis favors ridging building over the region, which will continue to give us summer like weather.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The short term forecast remains on track with some of us possibly seeing rainfall Sunday! A midlevel trough over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to move westward towards the lower Texas coast. Dry weather will prevail through tonight but as the trough moves west over northeastern Mexico into Deep South Texas moisture will increase across the area. We will remain warm though increasing clouds will allow temperatures to be slightly cooler Sunday than we have seen the past few days with highs generally in the mid 90s to low 100s.
18z data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a stationary front running from north Texas east into the Carolinas.
939 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Summary: A low pressure brings chances for showers and storms late tonight with a possibility for severe storms Sunday evening.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms resided mainly over the Lower Keys resulting in nearly an inch of rainfall at the Key West International Airport. The Atlantic ridge over mainland Florida continues to induce moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes across all coastal waters, which are expected to persist through tomorrow. From synopsis, a sharp Atlantic ridge axis will remained draped across the Florida Peninsula through this weekend, supporting moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes over the Florida Keys waters.
732 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania this weekend, accompanied by unseasonably dry air, mainly clear skies and excellent visibility for the middle of Summer.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 70s, making for a warm and humid night.
Weak amounts of moisture will ride along the ridge Sunday afternoon to create a few additional showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oregon, mainly over the higher elevations.
As far as the prevailing pattern, high pressure remains entrenched across the region. The high starts to shift to the east early in the week, which may help to decrease storm coverage across the region. We will still have daily thunderstorm chances but with the shift in the center of the high we may start to see a more traditional monsoon patter that has storms late morning through evening with less active overnight hours. Regardless of the position of the high, we will continue to have very wet antecedent conditions and heavy rainfall may cause more flooding.
Have adjusted the pops to delay the start of the higher pops until after 09z. Precip will decrease in coverage during the afternoon with some clearing and slightly warmer temps expected.
Surface cold front should still be situated somewhere in the northern Midlands early on Sunday.
451 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 19z surface analysis had weak low over western ND with trough into central NE. Along/ahead of trough, 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed with eroding cap. Behind trough, cap is gone with less than 1000J/kg MLCAPE as dry air continues to mix down/advect into the CWA per surface observations. High-based -TSRA possible just behind trough through early this evening, especially near the Black Hills.
The high humidity will help hold temperatures down, especially in areas where rain occurs. Convection has fired early this afternoon along the high terrain of Mohave and eastern San Bernardino Counties. The inverted trough providing the dynamics for these storms has drifted to the west with its axis aligned with the Colorado River.
726 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Summary: A low pressure brings chances for showers and storms late tonight with a possibility for severe storms Sunday evening.
Light southerly winds will become near calm inland overnight under clear skies with lows in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at the coast. Sunday will be another hot day with above average temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland and the low 90s at the coast. Lows Tonight in the lower to middle 70s forecast.
Temperatures will remain cooler due to increased cloud coverage, so expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow. The front that bas been quasi-stationary over the Midsouth for the last couple of days will lift back to the north tomorrow as a warm front.
For Sunday, expect similar or slightly warmer temperatures as better ridging takes hold across North & Central Texas.
Recent GFS initialization/simulation suggests that the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico appears to be a TUTT low (trough at 700/500 mb and closed low/greatest vorticity at 250 mb, within a TUTT). GOES-16 CH-13 depict the strongest convection east of the trough axis (consistent with TUTT lows).
Evening temps in the 80s will settle in the low to mid 70s overnight.
Another pleasant summer day for Southeast Michigan, although noticeably warmer, with temperatures edging into the middle 80s and surface dewpoints reaching 60 degrees.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
The rest of the week remains locked in the same pattern as the ridge axis that has been situated over north Florida moves a little further south. The low level flow will remain S/SE which will steer convection that does develop towards the west coast.
The axis of the ridge from the Bermuda high will be stretched across Central Georgia and push northward today which will also help push higher PWATs northward but also allow a dry slot with PWATs below 1.
SH/TS development for Sun is expected across the local coastal waters as an inverted trough moves W across the Gulf of Mexico. A slight change to the synoptic pattern comes tomorrow as a weak inverted trough pushes westward through the Gulf overnight. Not many changes to the temperature forecast with the prevailing upper ridge remaining the dominant feature across the Central CONUS.
The mid level flow will feature a northwest flow while at the surface the Piedmont Trough and Bermuda High pressure will be the main players.
407 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Quiet weather continues early this morning with Upper Michigan still under the influence of high pressure. Trended on the high side of model guidance for today's highs with this particular setup. Troughing will be over the area 00z tonight with the 500 mb trough axis moving through on Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Thu. 500 mb ridging moves into the northern plains 12z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. Troughing moves in for Sun.
303 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 As of 8z, an area of low pressure across eastern North Dakota an an associated cold front draped to its south across central South Dakota are moving east. This system and its precipitation will continue tracking east through the morning, with the cold front crossing the SD/MN border by the early afternoon. ) More comfortable conditions with cooler high temperatures across the northern CWA and lower dewpoints across central SD.
Deep level ridging from the Atlantic will hold in place through the near term. The overnight Low will be in the low-mid 70s.
A weakening surface front will continue to retreat northward today as mid level ridging subtly builds across the Deep South bringing modest drying and a shift of the 2"+ PW airmass slightly northward. This will focus the highest POPs today to the US 82 corridor and north. Though a warmer day is expected, the slightly drier air along and south of I-20 will help keep heat indices in check, while convection and clouds keep heat stress in check farther north.
Discussion: The wet pattern continues with a broad trough over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a warm front will be lifting northward through our region today. With dew points in the lower 70s and CAPE near 2000 J/kg during max heating, some stronger cells could develop and produce heavy rain rates with PWat values around 2 to 2. With mostly cloudy skies today, highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
316 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure/ridging in control of the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon is allowing for benign weather conditions to prevail. Troughing will be over the area 00z tonight with the 500 mb trough axis moving through on Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Thu. 500 mb ridging moves into the northern plains 12z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. Troughing moves in for Sun.
(Today) Temperatures this hour (08Z) are resting in the low/mid 70s under a bank of low/mid high cloud cover. Daytime highs will be cooler, reaching the upper 80s by the afternoon.