Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak southwesterly surface flow will help inch dewpoints upward tonight and tomorrow, resulting in overnight lows about in the mid 60s to low 70s - a few degrees warmer than this morning and just above climatology.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with afternoon highs on Saturday generally in the low to mid 90s.
UL trough/wave extending from the eastern Seaboard and across the FL peninsula will slowly drift over the Atlc Basin.
141 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The upper low continues to spin over Saskatchewan/Manitoba, resulting in a trough over the northern plains/Rockies region. Trough axis begins crossing the region on Saturday. Winds will become west-northwesterly, and the thermal ridge will build over the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s and lower 80s.
The highest risk will be in and around the mountains.
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 An upper trough and daytime heating expected to provide scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Right now, the western to central zones (along and west of Highway 283) stand to see the highest chances for storms and heavy rainfall.
A large area of low pressure is spinning over south central Canada with several smaller troughs moving through the generally westerly flow across on the south side of the low through the central U. Short term models are in reasonable agreement bringing an area of convection off the central Rockies and through the central High Plains region late this afternoon and evening in association with the upper trough moving east of the Rockies.
Closed upper low in southern Manitoba has a stationary front extending from Lake Superior to between Waterloo and Independence and then to the TX Panhandle. Cooler and much drier air west of the front with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s and temps in the comfortable 70s.
/issued 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020/ Weak upper ridging builds in as the persistent upper low finally loses its grip on the region.
As the trough axis pushes through, west/northwest winds on the back side appear to be slightly stronger/gusty than anticipated. However, while isolated critical conditions are possible in the lower elevations. Much of the same is likely on Saturday as the trough continues east and flow becomes more zonal leading to slightly warmer (but still below normal) temperatures to round out the short term.
The initial storms are forming along the cold frontal boundary which has stalled out over the southern Texas Panhandle.
As thr trough axis pushes through, west/northwest winds on the back side appear to be slightly stronger/gusty than anticipated. However, while isolated critical conditions are possible in the lower elevations. Much of the same is likely on Saturday as the trough continues east and flow becomes more zonal leading to slightly warmer (but still below normal) temperatures to round out the short term.
Southeast Arizona continues to sit under the influence of an upper trough to our north, which is directing dry air across the region. Morning temperatures dropped 5-10 degrees below normal, aided by the trough and dry regime. Today should represent the lowest dew points of the entire forecast period.
550 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The upper low continues to spin over Saskatchewan/Manitoba, resulting in a trough over the northern plains/Rockies region. Trough axis begins crossing the region on Saturday. Winds will become west-northwesterly, and the thermal ridge will build over the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s and lower 80s.
Expected cloud cover to decrease after midnight as the upper level trough pushes east of the Wyoming/Nebraska border. High pressure that was over northwestern Wyoming yesterday has shifted into north central Nebraska this afternoon. Upper ridging will be the main weather controller over the CWA this period boding for warm and mainly dry conditions. Some isolated late day convection will be possible most days as weak impulses drop se over the region ahead of the upper ridge axis over the western CONUS. A bit more widespread convection is possible by Friday as the upper ridge axis moves by and an upper trough moves over the Pacific NW and the northern Rockys. Unsettled weather this afternoon as a low pressure system tracks across the area.
High pressure will slowly strengthen across the region through the weekend.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/ An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends southward into New Mexico and the southern plains. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday but will still be hot with highs mostly in the upper 90s to triple digits. The upper trough will move over the central plains on Saturday with temperatures cooling slightly from today.
950 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 A weak upper level low over eastern Ohio and West Virginia is bringing scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The low will move east tonight, allowing weak high pressure to build into the area for Saturday. Tough to find a place to highlight precipitation potential for Saturday as a 500 mb ridge axis moves in from the west.
This should give way to a quiet overnight as an upper ridge axis slowly builds in from the west. Weak southwesterly surface flow will help inch dewpoints upward tonight and tomorrow, resulting in overnight lows about in the mid 60s to low 70s - a few degrees warmer than this morning and just above climatology.
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 (This evening through Saturday) A weak cold front has become essentially indiscernible within a large area of convectively-cooler air.
Passage of the short wave trough axis will clear skies out overnight, with relatively drier air and lower rain chances taking hold over most of the area Saturday. UL trough/wave extending from the eastern Seaboard and across the FL peninsula will slowly drift over the Atlc Basin.
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 An upper trough and daytime heating expected to provide scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
With upper level ridging influences building in, SKC conditions expected to prevail thru 20/24Z.
838 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 A mid and upper level low will redevelop from the OH Valley southeastward across the southern middle Atlantic and offshore through Saturday night. Overnight lows will be a couple degrees warmer than last night, primarily in the mid 60s. Saturday's highs should be a couple degrees warmer than today's, primarily in the mid 80s.
836 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 An upper trough and daytime heating expected to provide scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
1013 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights broad cyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico and a resilient long wave trough across the Southeast. Although, CIMMS layer mean analyses reveal a little progression to the pattern as ridging slides east and sharpens over the Plains. Closer to home, low level ridging stretches west across South Florida. A little drier air has squeaked into the lower levels from the east, sampled by our 12 and 00Z KBYX RAOBs today.
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 23z sfc analysis shows relative low pressure across the area just to the southwest of a slowly departing closed upper low. Otherwise, temperatures vary with the rain - generally in the low 70s following any storms and still in the low 80s for places missed. Winds outside of the storms have been mainly light from the west while dewpoints are mostly in the low to mid 60s. A mid level ridge axis will push into the region tonight ending the shower threat. The ridge axis will center itself over the area on Saturday, but should be sufficient heating again by the afternoon to provide for a few sporadic showers across the area.
743 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 A weak upper level low over eastern Ohio and West Virginia is bringing scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The low will move east tonight, allowing weak high pressure to build into the area for Saturday. Low temperatures tonight are near normal, in the low to mid 60s. Tough to find a place to highlight precipitation potential for Saturday as a 500 mb ridge axis moves in from the west.
Near the surface, high pressure is drifting eastward out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Right now, the western to central zones (along and west of Highway 283) stand to see the highest chances for storms and heavy rainfall. An upper level trof will push out across the Northern Plains and over the central United States.
The upper level low that has remained across the mid-Atlantic will begin to shift east on Saturday as an upper level ridge amplifies and heights across the region begin to build in response. However areas closer to the low such as far eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia stand the best chance to see scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not expecting organized strong to severe storms today, however dry air entrainment with the ridge building in could promote some convective gusts in any of the stronger cores. Otherwise it will be a warm day with highs in the lower 80s to near 90, a couple of degrees above normal.
343 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Todays feature will be a 500 mb short wave which is rotating around an upper low in northern Manitoba. This will bring cooler 500 mb temps aloft and the chances for showers and a few t-storms, esp during the aftn/eve.
Broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across the center section of the country on Sunday as a large upper low spins across southern Canada.
345 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 WV imagery shows the upper level trough axis moving into east Texas, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light zonal flow aloft. Currently, KMAF VWP shows a modest LLJ overhead, which has retreated the dryline back up against the higher terrain.
306 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Pesky upper trough over the area will finally move out during the forecast period. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s again with mid 80s to around 90 on tap for Sunday. Low amplitude ridge in the mid levels for most of the period.
Even with little change to the general air mass expected today, warmer temperatures are still likely as lingering cloud cover scatters out by this afternoon giving way to mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 50s(F) to the lower/mid 60s(F) tonight. An ongoing warming trend will continue into Sunday as prevailing southerlies pull warmer air into the area ahead of the aforementioned approaching weak frontal boundary. Should see afternoon highs pushing the lower 90s(F).
331 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the area today. The high will move east of the region tonight. For today, a mid level ridge will build east into the area. The mid level ridge axis will shift east tonight. Lows will range from the lower to mid 60s. Highs will range from the lower 80s west to the upper 80s east.
201 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Closed upper low continues to slowly move northeastward across central Manitoba. Messy synoptic pattern as a result with trough axis stretching from southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba down into the central Plains. Upper trough axis will shift eastward later today, taking on more of a negative tilt as the trough axis becomes oriented northwesterly to southeasterly.
AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 92 69 92 / 20 10 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 90 68 90 / 20 10 30 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 87 66 90 67 90 / 20 10 30 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 62 86 64 87 / 30 10 40 20 50.
This should give way to a quiet overnight as an upper ridge axis slowly builds in from the west. Weak southwesterly surface flow will help inch dewpoints upward tonight and tomorrow, resulting in overnight lows about in the mid 60s to low 70s - a few degrees warmer than this morning and just above climatology. To start the period, we will continue to be under the influence of some slight ridging Sunday as a trough associated with an upper level low over Manitoba Canada stretches south through the upper Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley.
1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 (This evening through Saturday) A weak cold front has become essentially indiscernible within a large area of convectively-cooler air.
320 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A mid and upper level low will slowly track SE from the OH Valley across our region today and tonight.
Troughing over the eastern half the CONUS begins to degrade and lift northeast as weak U/L ridging begins to slide over the southeast. Atlantic sub-tropical ridging will begin to strengthen across the Peninsula, with the axis over south Florida leading to low-level west/southwest flow around 5 knots. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s areawide, except locations that may be influenced by afternoon storms during peak heating. Overnight, expect muggy and typical summertime lows in the low/mid 70s. Moving forward to the new week, our typical summertime pattern will set up as weak zonal flow aloft and low-level ridging strengthens across the Peninsula. Deep moisture will remain in place each day and the position of the subtropical ridge will be the kicker with respect to our afternoon thunderstorm coverage.
With the recent rain and cooling temperatures, patchy fog or low clouds should develop on the Caprock as the higher level clouds shift east.
The summer season begins today as high pressure builds over the west and results in mostly sunny skies and occasional breezes. The large scale weather pattern over the weekend has ridging building off the west coast and little in the way of any significant weather near our area of responsibility. Expect warmer temperatures today with additional warming on Sunday.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with afternoon highs on Saturday generally in the low to mid 90s. The short term period will predominantly be dominated by a weak upper level ridge over the region. This will lead to a weak pressure gradient over our region with a high pressure system starting to develop off the east coast of Florida. The weak ridging aloft will lead to very warm temperatures across our region with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s.
Following some diffuse streamer showers this morning across the east embedded within a PWAT axis around 2 inches, mid-level winds will veer more westerly through the day and dry out behind a weak upper trough and an axis of 300-250 mb divergence departing the region.
1013 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The upper low continues to spin over Saskatchewan/Manitoba, resulting in a trough over the northern plains/Rockies region. Trough axis begins crossing the region on Saturday. Winds will become west-northwesterly, and the thermal ridge will build over the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s and lower 80s.
Essentially quasi-zonal flow with short ridges through the period.
407 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 High pressure will build north over the area on Saturday. A low pressure originating in the Central Plains will move northeast across the Great Lakes region on Sunday which will move a cold front towards the area.
As the trough axis pushes through, west/northwest winds on the back side appear to be slightly stronger/gusty than anticipated. However, while isolated critical conditions are possible in the lower elevations. Much of the same is likely on Saturday as the trough continues east and flow becomes more zonal leading to slightly warmer (but still below normal) temperatures to round out the short term. The jet stream will be riding up and over a ridge of high pressure Sunday with the ridge axis extending just about along the west coast.
350 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Convection is forecast to develop along a dry line/trough feature in eastern areas around 20-21z. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows Sunday night in the 50s/60s.
On Sunday, an upper level low will slowly rotate east across southern Manitoba.
A short wave ridge will be building in from the west later this afternoon so any activity will likely remain over the Panhandle, closer to the better low level convergence, and across south central GA and the eastern Big Bend away from the larger depth of mid-level dry-air. Temperatures will remain above normal today with many locations in the lower 90s.
23z sfc analysis shows relative low pressure across the area just to the southwest of a slowly departing closed upper low. Otherwise, temperatures vary with the rain - generally in the low 70s following any storms and still in the low 80s for places missed. Winds outside of the storms have been mainly light from the west while dewpoints are mostly in the low to mid 60s. A mid level ridge axis will push into the region tonight ending the shower threat. The ridge axis will center itself over the area on Saturday, but should be sufficient heating again by the afternoon to provide for a few sporadic showers across the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Weak 500 mb troughiness will persist along the Texas coastline during the period. With the 500 mb troughiness in place and mid-level high pressure retrograding from central Mexico to west of the Baja Peninsula, daytime high and overnight low temperatures should prevail in the near normal range for the weekend.
346 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly across the ridges and higher elevations this afternoon. Drier air is being funneled southwards on the low's western periphery ahead of an advancing ridge.
Overall, the implications are drier/cooler airmasses recycle/reinforce with surface trofpas/cold fropas during the period.
202 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Today Through Sunday The upper ridge which has been responsible for the nice weather of late, will begin to move E of the area today. Upper flow will transition to SWrly in the wake of the ridge axis passage. A trough currently located over the Nrn Plains will slowly move towards AR over the next two days. On Sunday, PoPs will increase greatly across a good portion of the state as the upper level trough moves closer the region. Again, the highest QPF should be confined to the nrn half of the state. Temperatures will be in the mid/upper 80s over the N, with highs in the low/mid 90s across the Srn portion of the state.
Highs today will top out in the lower 90s to upper 90s with lows tonight in the middle 70s once again. Highs will remain in the lower 90s to upper 90s across the area.
Expected cloud cover to decrease after midnight as the upper level trough pushes east of the Wyoming/Nebraska border. High pressure that was over northwestern Wyoming yesterday has shifted into north central Nebraska this afternoon. Upper ridging will be the main weather controller over the CWA this period boding for warm and mainly dry conditions. Some isolated late day convection will be possible most days as weak impulses drop se over the region ahead of the upper ridge axis over the western CONUS.
308 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Narrow but fairly sharp ridge aloft is close to the Wabash River early this morning.
145 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A mid and upper level low will redevelop from the OH Valley southeastward across the southern middle Atlantic and offshore through Saturday night.
Even with little change to the general air mass expected today, warmer temperatures are still likely as lingering cloud cover scatters out by this afternoon giving way to mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 50s(F) to the lower/mid 60s(F) tonight. An upper level trof will push out across the Northern Plains and over the central United States.
1030 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Passing trough is moving across SE WY currently, and got close enough to spark a few elevated showers off the southern end of the Wind River Range. This trough is quickly moving to the northeast, taking the bulk of midlevel support away from the higher elevations, so shower activity has been decreasing already this afternoon. Northwest flow behind this trough will set up a calmer day for most of the area Saturday, with temperatures rebounding into the 70s and 80s. Increased cloud cover in those locations will hold highs back in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
This appears to be with the low-level jet and some weak low-level convergence at around 925 mb. That will lead to a rather warm and humid Sunday with highs climbing into the lower 90s and dew points approaching 70 degrees.
The semi-resident upper low will open up and move to the east over the second half of the weekend. Because the air mass changes very little through the weekend, temperatures will remain above normal across the board, and likely a couple of degrees warmer than today. Moderation is unlikely until the weak trough passage on Sunday night, but even that is only going to knock a degree or two off of high temperatures, which means above normal temperatures will remain through the short term. The upper trough over the Canadian Prairies earlier in the week will slowly weaken as it tracks east through the remainder of the period.
244 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A brief window of upper ridging is set to move across the area today. There still may be just enough low level moisture to undercut the ridge and provide some convective potential for today. The ridge is looking narrow and rather progressive and thus, active westerlies will quickly come into the picture on Sunday.
High temperatures will top out in the lower 90s. Suppressive mid lvl ridge continues to plaque the area and curtail convective development as seen yesterday. Flash drought not helping either as noted in dewpoint depression trends with aftn mixing dropping dewpoints into the low 50s. Blend of cams yields a more palatable consensus and offers some vain hope for some storms cntrl/ern zones although tempered by weakening mid lvl trough and lackluster moisture. Similar scenario aloft seen by Mon aftn as secondary/deeper sw disturbance wraps ewd through into wrn lakes beneath closed low over sw ON. Thereafter wrn ON upper low shifts south of James Bay and will suppress frontal zone well south into the TN valley mid week.
248 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Gulf, providing a light southeast flow offshore, with nearly calm winds inland. Temperatures across the region in the lower to mid 70s, seasonable for this time of year.
1133 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 VFR CAVOK conditions to prevail as high pressure dominates the central gulf coast region, suppressing convection and limiting cloud cover through Saturday night.
648 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery this morning showing leading edge of cold frontal boundary continuing to move across the coastal PNW. Today, ridge will flatten out as the surface cold front and upper level impulse move across inland PNW. Some light rain showers will develop with the passage of the cold front, mostly over portions of eastern WA and northern OR. Sunday, ridge will begin to restrengthen over the forecast area with dry conditions returning. Temperatures today and Sunday will be 7-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.