Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1050 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A weak cold front will sag south across the state today. The front will be followed by a brief period of slightly cooler and less humid conditions for the 4th of July accompanied by light wind. A cold front will pass early in the weekend and dry things out. Will be tracking weak cold front as it slowly pushes south across CWA today. High pressure just doesn't forcibly push in from the NW and takes a more easterly track across lower Ontario and NY state. The latter part of the work week should be more active with another trough swinging through the Southern Great lakes region and the OH valley.
/issued 353 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/ An upper ridge is currently in place over the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. This very low moisture in combination with subsidence from high pressure aloft will once again suppress convection for all of the CWA today. Mixing of lower dewpoints above the surface will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s, but at the same time keep heat index values around 100 degrees. Now, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the upper ridge will resist breaking down until later this week.
1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will cross the region today.
Surface winds will turn south to southeast with onshore winds around Lake Superior keeping lakeside areas cooler. Off lake winds are again expected so lakeside areas will be a bit cooler. A large upper level ridge in the western portion of the country will continue to hold firm over the duration of the period, with building heights to our west, and the development of a long wave trough over the eastern portion of the country.
/issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday):H5 ridge stretched across the southern US begins to build northward along the spine of the Rockies, continuing to deflect weather systems away from South Texas.
Deep layer shear to the north of the boundary is supportive of organized convection, however most of it is localized in the low levels and therefore will likely not help in overcoming cold pool dominate storms.
Weak cold front this afternoon and evening will combine with an unstable atmosphere for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly in the northeast part of the forecast area. The large upper level ridge will remain in place across the western U. 00Z model 850mb temperatures show some packing of the isotherms and some cooling across the northern portions of the CWA with what looks like a weak backdoor cold front or boundary. This may allow for slightly cooler temperatures on Tuesday, particularly in the northern half of the forecast area close to the Canadian border where highs may remain in the upper 80s to near 90. Upper ridge over the desert southwest extends north into the Canadian prairies for most of the period.
632 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Showers and thunderstorms along the Missouri/Arkansas border is being generated in low level moisture convergence ahead of an upper trough over western Arkansas. The resulting low level trof over the Plains will continue to bring warm and moist air up into the Mid Mississippi Valley through the day.
A gradually amplifying anticyclone over the Intermountain West and the mean troughing developing over the eastern half of the CONUS will continue to keep an active weather pattern across much of the Southeast.
841 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will bring warmer weather and a shallower marine layer this week.
Wed & Wed Night: A weak sfc-850mb low begins to develop over the KS/MO border from which a weak trof would extend into central OK. Thu-Fri Night: Broad & strong ridging spreading east across the Great Plains will keep the weather quiet. Details are sketchy as there are differences among models with respect to positioning of strong mid-upper high that should cover the southern plains. The next concern will be the potential for convection developing late this afternoon over the high plains along a dryline.
Weakening onshore winds and daily drying trends should continue to reduce the low cloud coverage and duration for late tonight/early Tuesday. Overall, the synoptic pattern remains unchanged from previous days with weak ridging in place. Highs today will top out in the middle 90s to 102 degrees with the higher temperatures across the Rio Grande Plains where the air will be driest. The upper ridge will be more amplified and centered over the Rockies by tomorrow and there are some indications of possible showers again in the eastern Counties as southerly flow slightly increases in the low-levels.
1233 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Lake aggregate high pressure will dominate through the forecast period supporting light winds and VFR conditions.
High pressure will build over the Great Basin this week, bringing very warm temperatures to northern Arizona and a slight chance thunderstorms to the high terrain, most numerous over the White Mountains. With strong high pressure developing near the Four Corners, daytime temperatures will be above normal, and those engaging in activities impacted by heat should be prepared.
SFO Bridge Approach. High pressure off the California coast is weakening allowing winds to decrease over the coastal waters. The high will rebuild by the end of the week and winds should increase again.
/issued 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/ High pressure will continue to build to the west over AZ/NM today, keeping us in northwest flow.
1206 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast today. The exception may be the eastern ridges, where enough moisture may linger for isolated convection.
1056 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A weak cold front across northern Illinois this morning will drift slowly to the south the rest of the today. How far south the front will progress this afternoon and evening is still not agreed upon in the high res models. 07z/2am surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from northern Iowa to southern Lake Michigan. have included an isolated mention:however, with dewpoints once again mixing into the lower 60s, both instability and forcing will be minimal.
1148 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Hydro High pressure will bring fair weather through the Fourth of July.
High pressure over the northeast Pacific and a thermal trough along the coast will continue to produce strong north winds and wind driven seas today and tonight. The thermal trough weakens and moves inland Tuesday allowing winds to lower to small craft then gradually diminish by Tuesday evening. The deep westerly flow pattern over the past several days will transition towards southwesterly flow as an upper ridge builds over the 4 corners region. The building ridge and warmer temperatures aloft have compressed the marine layer, and clouds and some fog are mainly confined to the coast and coastal valleys this morning.
Deep layered ridging from the Atlantic extending west across the central Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico will remain in control through the period with typical summertime weather continuing across the forecast area. Ample moisture combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze circulations will support scattered to numerous showers and storms across the region today and again on Tuesday (The Fourth of July), with the highest rain chances (Pops 40 to 60 percent) and best storm coverage setting up over inland locations each afternoon, with the convection drifting back toward coastal locations and the Gulf waters during the late afternoon and evening hours.
High pressure will build across the region through the first half of the week, with moisture increasing from the south during the middle and latter portions of the week. Heights continue to build locally this morning as mean ridging amplifies over the desert southwest. Remnant mid level moisture in wake of yesterday's weak trough remains pooled from roughly SLC east across the Uinta Basin where roughly. High pressure will continue to amplify and expand across the intermountain region through midweek allowing for a further warming of temps and dry conditions as a whole.
Overall a bit more cloud cover today but a tad warmer as well with highs closer to the mid 70s to low 80s across the region as winds turn southerly nr 8 to 15 kts. With dew pts climbing to some of the highest levels this summer to date (65-68F), this will result in MUCAPE values nr 3000 j/kg or a tad higher along the boundary.
An upper trough axis is passing across Western Washington this morning, and it will exit this afternoon.
1040 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Continue to see main threat of storms over the higher terrain of the mountains and far eastern plains. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s. Weak upper low and trof across Central Colorado early this morning with a fair amount of middle and high level cloudiness lingering through the night. Back edge of upper trof still back over western Wyoming and northwest Colorado. Trof will work its way southeast with increasing northwest flow at all levels by this afternoon. QG fields showing weakly subsident airmass moving in later this afternoon behind the trof with diminishing convection in most areas by evening except over the far east. Overall, temperatures similar to a few degrees cooling today with trof passage.
902 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast today. A cold front will continue to sink southward into the region today, reaching the general Pittsburgh vicinity by 00Z. The exception may be the eastern ridges, where enough moisture may linger for isolated convection.
By the end of the week, a stronger short wave will aid in digging an H5 trough into the CWA which will push a cold front into the CWA.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 71 88 71 / 40 40 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 84 70 / 30 20 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 67 85 70 / 30 20 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 86 68 / 20 10 40 40.
907 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will cross the region today.
1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Showers and thunderstorms along the Missouri/Arkansas border is being generated in low level moisture convergence ahead of an upper trough over western Arkansas. The resulting low level trof over the Plains will continue to bring warm and moist air up into the Mid Mississippi Valley through the day.
Slightly cooler today with temperatures approaching 90 over the forecast area. Upper level ridging/high pressure will remain centered across the western Colorado, eastern Utah area through the weekend. At this time no widespread convection is expected, but cap doesn't appear to be overly strong, and any subtle wave rotating southeast around the upper level high could increase thunderstorm coverage some.
becomes locked into a persistent blocking pattern. Over the next couple of days, high pressure will build across the intermountain west, and will act as a barrier to storm systems from the West. Meanwhile, a large area of low pressure will gradually dig into the north Pacific and persist for several days, leaving northwest California within a regime of northwest flow aloft.
In short, be careful swimming, but also prepare for the high heat indices by keeping hydrated and make sure to use sunscreen.
A weak upper level trough is moving across the area early this morning.
Relatively dry air over head in combination with a low level ridge axis over the Gulf coast will keep temperatures high in the low 90s and suppress rain chances today. This deep layer drier air will continue to move east today as the 700mb ridge over the north central Gulf gradually moves east. This dry air and ridging will keep the current MCS activity moving into the Midsouth to our north. The lack of rain and cloud cover will allow highs to climb into the low to mid 90s. Dry weather is expected tonight with typical summertime lows in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s along the immediate coast.
Meanwhile some very isolated shower or thunderstorm activity to pop up near the isentropic lift along our southern border later this morning into the afternoon near the Missouri Valley into the highway 20 corridor.
Region of higher moisture near the lower Texas coast early this morning has advected northward into the coastal plains and coastal waters at this time.
They all depict a strong ridge over the Four Corners region while a broad trough holds over eastern Canada and southwest into the Ohio Valley.
The subtropical ridge axis will remain stretched across the Florida Peninsula, while the pressure gradient provides during peaks and lulls wind the wind field due to daytime heating. Will keep the low end chance for showers, and at least slight chance of thunderstorms through the weekend. Subtropical high pressure will dominate the pressure gradient, thus the east to southeast breezes through the forecast.
This deep layer drier air will continue to move east today as the 700mb ridge over the north central Gulf gradually moves east. This dry air and ridging will keep the current MCS activity moving into the Midsouth to our north. The lack of rain and cloud cover will allow highs to climb into the low to mid 90s. Dry weather is expected tonight with typical summertime lows in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s along the immediate coast.
The deep westerly flow pattern over the past several days will transition towards southwesterly flow as an upper ridge builds over the 4 corners region. The building ridge and warmer temperatures aloft have compressed the marine layer, and clouds and some fog are mainly confined to the coast and coastal valleys this morning.
555 AM MST Mon Jul 3 2017 Temperatures will remain above normal through this week as high pressure predominates across the Desert Southwest. A gradual increase in moisture will lead to isolated thunderstorm development over mainly the higher terrain of Arizona through midweek. The threat of thunderstorms will then expand westward into the lower deserts late this week and weekend. A quiet morning across our CWA this Monday with mostly clear skies and temperatures still hovering in the low 90s for Phoenix.
Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday as heights rise beneath a strengthening bubble of high pressure.
Upper ridging still builds over the region into the latter part of the week. By the weekend, a cold front sags into the area and may stall and cause some areas of showers and storms to linger for a good portion of the weekend.
630 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Early morning satellite imagery shows us that the large ridge to our west has moved in across the center of the Nation, with a weak trough burrowing through the ridge axis across the Central and Southern Plains. While this has pushed the general storm track north with the prevailing jet stream, and allowed seasonally warm and muggy temperatures to dominate, the weakness under the ridge has been more than sufficient to get convection going in areas from the Central High Plains into the southern Plains resulting in a couple of convective complexes move across the region early this morning.
As one short wave trof exits east Alabama, an upstream MCS over Arkansas was tracking eastward. Patchy fog has developed across north central Alabama early this morning, and expect more fog development over east Alabama as the mid level clouds associated with the upper short wave trof dissipate. None of the models show much if any convection across south Alabama this afternoon, where weak upper ridging is present. Westerly low level winds will produce warm temperatures today, with highs in the lower 90s in many areas.
This will bring the chance for light freezing drizzle to the area through late morning. High pressure will then remain in control tonight through tomorrow morning before finally shifting east Tuesday afternoon. Expect highs in the lower 50s to the east and to near 60 to the west.
Dry weather conditions and warmer temperatures are expected on Monday.
805 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Light precipitation chances return today with a trough of low pressure.
651 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Expect VFR conditions to persist trough the period. Most areas will remain above freezing tonight. though a few isolated spots across the NRN/NWRN counties may again dip to near or just below freezing. This will be a dry cold front.
Anticipate this to linger through the next couple of hours, before drier air works its way into the low levels. Not to mention the rain that fell into this wedge that reinforced the cooler air in place. High pressure pushes in to the region from the central plains right behind the exiting frontal system. This ridge dominates the Southeastern states weather pattern through the end of the work week. This ridge also brings in another cool airmass with low temps Wed and Thu mornings mainly in the 30s and 40s across North and Central GA. This ridge does not stay stationary through the period. As this ridge pushes off shore. A sharp cold front is expected to impact the CWA during the weekend.
The approach of the cold front tonight will initially switch winds to the northeast just after sunset, with the arrival of gustier winds right around midnight. /issued 404 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Moisture will continue to expand northward today ahead of the next cold front. Moisture forcing at the surface overnight, along with the axis of the H5 trough aloft passing to the north will continue to bring a threat for showers, and may have enough strength for a clap of thunder overnight. The cold front will bring another shot of cooler temperatures into the region Tuesday, with highs struggling to reach the mid 70s through the day.
Chances for precipitation will linger into this evening across the area before high pressure builds in and keeps most areas dry until late week. A low pressure system will bring chances for rain late week into the weekend. Surface analysis late this morning shows Low pressure in place over SW MO. A secondary weak low was found across the Great Lakes while high pressure was in place across the Dakotas. have trended temperatures cooler than the forecast builder blends.
/issued 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Another cold front will move across West Central Texas today. This front will bring cooler temperatures, and highs this afternoon will be closer to seasonal normals. Lows tonight will range from the lower to upper 40s.
1144 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure ridging southward from Canada will direct weakening low pressure south of the Ohio River Valley today. Another weakening upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday.
Cooler today in the wake of a passing cold front. Surface lee troughing and a moderation in the airmass will help to make for a less cold night compared to this morning. Even more mild than Monday night as the airmass modifies, with lower elevation temperatures remaining above freezing.
Tuesday will be warmer and dry as a transitory ridge approaches. High temperatures will be around normal in the southwest with highs in the lower 50s.
700 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 H5 Analysis from earlier this evening had a low amplitude trough of low pressure extending from northern Minnesota into the Texas panhandle. Within this trough, numerous upper level disturbances were noted over eastern South Dakota, western North Dakota, southern Colorado and Oklahoma. The frontal boundary will begin to lift to the northeast as a warm front later this afternoon, pushing into the western half of the forecast area. Expected cloud cover will hinder the warmup, especially in the northeastern forecast area, and trended temps toward the cooler MET guidance.
1151 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Have cancelled winter weather advisory based on continued improving road conditions with temperatures climbing above freezing.
A weak warm frontal boundary was located from over the offshore waters into the southern Coastal Bend and then south into deep south Texas. The cold front will push into the region by early this evening. Cold front will push into the coastal waters early this evening.
Have continued to see light snow and even some freezing drizzle persist across much of central and eastern portions of the forecast area but the far west and north has seen pcpn end. Soundings indicate the low levels remain somewhat moist through the day and clouds are expected to linger into the afternoon although some dry does occur and anticipate some breakup of cloudiness by late afternoon into the evening.
Thin, high clouds were found within a region a high pressure over the eastern half of the state. Winds will continue to be light and variable or 5 KTS from the SE for the rest of today as a weak inverted trough over SWRN PA attm, gradually drifts east to the Susq Valley by 06Z Tuesday. Sfc dewpoints starting out in the mid teens prior to the onset of the light precip will allow for plenty of cooling to the forecast sub-freezing, mean 0-1KM AGL wet bulb temps. Min temps will halt right around freezing in the SE, but some clearing is possible tonight after the main short wave trough passes.
/issued 350 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ The local area remains under broad upper level troughing that is encompassing over 2/3's of the country. Models show a sharpening of the trough in place Tuesday morning. A cold front will accompany this feature as it track east across the lower Mississippi Valley.
A short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama later this morning. Clearing will take place across northwest Alabama later this morning and spread southward during the day once the short wave trof axis passes to the east of Alabama. A brief break in the rain this afternoon and evening before and another weak short wave trof approaches the region. This trof will cause moisture to pool over southeast Alabama later tonight with a chance of rain developing, mainly for areas south of I-85.
The afternoon should be drier as an upper ridge builds and low to mid levels dry out. The east has deeper snowpack, and therefore should be cooler. These warmer temperatures will allow for low level snowmelt of lingering snowpack over the east. The ridge breaks down Tuesday night as an upper trough moves into southern British Columbia.
A few locations reported sleet and even light snow despite the temperatures in the low 40s. Tuesday will have a dry trough which the main impact will be reinforcing the cold air aloft, so temperatures will not warm up too much just yet.
Mesomodels in agreement on weak low level convergence associated with lingering trof over eastern CWA this afternoon along with.
1035 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Aviation sections updated Chances for precipitation will linger into this evening across the area before high pressure builds in and keeps most areas dry until late week. A low pressure system will bring chances for rain late week into the weekend. Surface analysis late this morning shows Low pressure in place over SW MO. A secondary weak low was found across the Great Lakes while high pressure was in place across the Dakotas. have trended temperatures cooler than the forecast builder blends.
An upper level high pressure ridge will keep our area dry through tonight with mostly sunny skies today. For Tuesday expect scattered showers at lower elevations and more numerous showers over the mountains, mainly during the afternoon and evening, as a relatively weak upper level low pressure trough moves inland.
With 1-3 inches of snow on the ground across much of the area and overcast conditions expected to persist through the entire day, have lowered afternoon high temperatures into the lower 40s. High pressure will bring clearing skies, but continued chilly conditions on Tuesday as high temperatures remain well below normal in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
/issued 550 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ High pressure over the Mid South today will keep dry but continued seasonably cool conditions in place. Temperatures will be warmer than previous days but still anywhere between 5 and 10 degrees below average. This system will usher in a brief cool down again on Tuesday with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. Canadian high pressure will settle over the Mid South Tuesday night allowing for clear skies, calm winds, and another potentially frosty night with lows in the middle and upper 30s.