Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Looks like the upper level low will hang around for one more day. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) Weak upper low over southwest Texas is showing up well on water vapor imagery, with the center located south of Ozona this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have developed today mainly along and south of interstate 10, as the low continues to shift slowly southeastward. Tomorrow should be dry as the upper low heads farther to the southeast.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND KEEP US IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TO THE WEST.
FOR 00Z TAFS UPPER LOW CREATING THE SHRA/TSRA NOW MAINLY OVER WRN TN WILL RETROGRADE MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN MOST OF IT WILL END OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AL/GA LIFTS UP THE APPALACHIANS. AFTER THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN. AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THEN IT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASED RIDGING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RUC SUGGEST THE NORTHEAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ARE TAPERING OFF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE WINDS ARE MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWEST 3000 FEET. LIGHTER BREEZES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MARINE SERVICE AREA ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT WEAKER. SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) Weak upper low over southwest Texas is showing up well on water vapor imagery, with the center located south of Ozona this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have developed today mainly along and south of interstate 10, as the low continues to shift slowly southeastward. Tomorrow should be dry as the upper low heads farther to the southeast.
Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid 60s. For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with light southeast winds becoming light south.
THE EXCEPTION BEING MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA WHERE STRATUS SILL LINGERS AND AIDING IN HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER 70S ATTIM. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ THROUGH THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE THIS RIDGE AND WARMER AIR BUILD INTO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VLY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPS ON MONDAY. WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR MANY AND WITH MID AFTN DEWPTS IN MID/UPPER 60S I HAVE KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN RANGE OF 60-67 DEGS. BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSCTD WITH THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD ANOTHER TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW.
THE UPPER LOW WAS TRAILING IT AND MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/ECMWF TEMPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROF. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
Most of the convection today was east and south of the forecast area as an upper level low lifting northward brought some drier mid and upper level air into the area.
100 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND WILL PASS OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT.
MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN FOR MON WL BE HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO HANG AROUND AND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. PCPN WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IT IS TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA WITH ANY WEAK FRONT OR S/W TROF THAT MOVES THROUGH. AND ALSO GENERALLY AGREE THAT A S/W TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH N WI SOMETIME IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.
REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ASCENT ABOVE A SHALLOW DOME OF RELATIVELY COOLER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. COUPLED WITH LGT E FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BY 06Z. THE UPPER LOW WAS TRAILING IT AND MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/ECMWF TEMPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY.
Tonight: Isolated to scattered showers will continue into the early evening as the upper level trough of low pressure crosses the region.
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK.
Monday will likely mark the final day of below-average temperatures, at least for a few days, as a disorganized mid level ridge builds into the center part of the US.
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 84 68 91 / 30 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 84 68 89 / 30 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 85 67 89 / 30 30 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 83 64 87 / 40 30 10 20.
MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN FOR MON WL BE HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO HANG AROUND AND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. PCPN WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IT IS TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA WITH ANY WEAK FRONT OR S/W TROF THAT MOVES THROUGH. AND ALSO GENERALLY AGREE THAT A S/W TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH N WI SOMETIME IN THE WED-THU PERIOD. VIS LOOPS SUGGESTS A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FOG COULD BE A LITTLE LATER TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPARTURES AT THIS TIME TONIGHT VS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION BEING MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA WHERE STRATUS SILL LINGERS AND AIDING IN HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER 70S ATTIM. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ THROUGH THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE THIS RIDGE AND WARMER AIR BUILD INTO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VLY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPS ON MONDAY. WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER TODAY FOR MANY AND WITH MID AFTN DEWPTS IN MID/UPPER 60S I HAVE KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN RANGE OF 60-67 DEGS. BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.
1042 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUILDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS OF ERIKA REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LOW THAT PRETTY MUCH STAYS PARKED ACROSS THE GULF STATES/NORTHERN GOMEX AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE HIGHEST QPF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS FAR AS THE UPPER LOW GOES. ANOTHER BY-PRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE SEABREEZE AS IT PASSES ALI AND VCT BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA.
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LEADING IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
114 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY.
217 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 After a hot afternoon today, expect slightly cooler conditions to arrive by the weekend. The upper ridge bringing the warm temperatures and dry weather will shift east into the Plains and weaken over the next few days. Meanwhile, a storm system will carve out a trough across the Western U. By the weekend, this trough will move close enough to the area to generate southwesterly mid level flow.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE IN TO THE EASTERN US AND TOWARDS THE AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE HURRICANE THEY COULD COMBINE TO PUMP IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OVER THE CAROLINAS, AND SOME OF THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD SEEP INTO OUR AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE JOAQUIN SLOWING DOWN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND COMBINE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DUE TO THE TROUGH AND BRING IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME OF THE MODELS MERGE JOAQUIN AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST, WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD RESULT IN LESS RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA DUE TO THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT MUCH QUICKER.
411 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON FRIDAY. MOST OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
UPPER ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS AREA BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WEST AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
Friday looks to be a relatively pleasant day, with partial clearing by the afternoon and warmer temperatures vs.
322 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTS. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD JOG TOWARD THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
552 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN OREGON LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS TO THE EAST SIDE. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
/ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS MORNING. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH.
342 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND EVEN THE KHTX RADAR, SHOWS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. NOT SURPRISINGLY, SHOWERS--AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS--HAVE BROKEN OUT, MAINLY EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW IS GOING TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW, BOTTOM OUT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SIT THERE FOR A WHILE. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY--BUT ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP GOOD RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, MAINLY FROM HUNTSVILLE EAST.
THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
337 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 Late this afternoon a mid-level ridge extended from the Southern Plains into the Rockies and High Plains, with the forecast area located along the eastern ridge axis. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern Canada but extended southwestward across the Great Lakes region and into the central U. There was enough lift today to develop mid-level clouds along the eastern ridge axis across western and central Kansas with notably drier conditions in the lower levels. With the expected increasing mid-level cloud cover overnight, have increased low temperatures a bit across north central Kansas into the mid 40s, with readings in the low 40s likely in eastern Kansas.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAT WHAT THEY WOULD NORMALLY BE OVERNIGHT AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MANY SPOTS. THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MAINTAINING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS UNDER THE UPPER LOW.
Short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure shifting eastward across the Western High Plains tonight and further east into the Central Plains Friday. Although the ridge axis will be situated generally across extreme western Kansas late tonight, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow up next to a near stationary frontal boundary extending from eastern Colorado southward into the Texas panhandle, may provide enough lift to support the development of drizzle or light rain toward daybreak Friday morning. Aiding the potential for light precip will be an increasingly difluent flow aloft as the upper level trough out west approaches and a +80kt upper level jet streams east out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains.
/issued 217 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ After a hot afternoon today, expect slightly cooler conditions to arrive by the weekend. The upper ridge bringing the warm temperatures and dry weather will shift east into the Plains and weaken over the next few days. Meanwhile, a storm system will carve out a trough across the Western U. By the weekend, this trough will move close enough to the area to generate southwesterly mid level flow.
307 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LARGE RIDGE COMPLEX MAINTAINING FROM THE JAMES BAY REGION. SOMEWHAT COOLER VERTICAL PROFILES KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD LEAN TOWARD LESS CU/CLOUD ROWS OR PATCHES THAN TODAY AND 1-2 DEGREE WARMER HIGHS.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOSING DOWN INTO TEXAS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
Not much seen in the way of shrtwv trof energy though and other than the possibility of brief isold SHRA/TSRA not much is expected.
218 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL CHURNING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
153 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE.
THE SECOND IS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTH WHICH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BRINGING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL BUILD IN AND ULTIMATELY PUSH JOAQUIN NORTH AND NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY.
329 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES IT WAY FROM THE WEST COAST TO NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THE PLURALITY OF MAJOR FCST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL GET INTO A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION STRETCHING FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
326 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DWINDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
207 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WE WILL REACH TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POISED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL BE THE CAUSE OF THE WET FORECAST IN PLAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. VERY WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAKOTAS WAVE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. MID CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE BORDER WITH THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. STILL BELIEVE WINDS WILL DIE OFF AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
1147 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 CHANGE IS IN THE WINGS AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LEFT COAST WILL BE KICKED ONSHORE TODAY BY ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF WESTERN CANADA. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER US WILL RESPOND BY AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE LATE TOMORROW. HOWEVER THIS WAS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS YESTERDAY WHICH WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD TODAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS THE JET SHIFT OVERHEAD. THIS JET AS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUPPLIES SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT ON FRIDAY BUT VERY LITTLE MID TO LOW LEVEL FOCUS IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
340 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US HAS BEEN PROPAGATING EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A -15C H5 CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO REGION ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND INCOMING TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MAINLY OVER THE NORTH ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.