Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1223 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail today with one final day of high pressure and a southerly wind flow. During the day tomorrow, deteriorating conditions are expected across the area as a cold front approaches.
Additional clearing is expected through today with dry weather and a building ridge offshore.
Meanwhile, in the upper levels, the base of the previously mentioned upper level low will swing through tonight into early Thursday. This will help to increase the low level jet through the evening and tonight and send another surge in moisture with PWATs in the 1 to 1. This will be a battle between the inversion and not confident we will see too many higher gusts outside the higher terrain nearer the Virginia border. There could also be some peaks of sun through the afternoon leading to highs in the low to mid 50s for most spots. Thursday night, we will remain dry with closed low nearer the Great Lakes region helping to send some clouds back into the area.
Bands of snow continue to wrap around the low across much of our region, with strong winds creating blizzard to near blizzard conditions across much of the western SD plains.
While parts of NW AL are seeing a brief break from showers at this time, expect this area to fill back in as the cold front is still well to the west across AR and MS given strong moisture advection. As a result, showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms may redevelop ahead of the cold front and push across the forecast area.
At the heart of the problem is that we have strong, E-SE flow with fairly substantial WAA through the low layers of the atmosphere and thermal profiles which currently will support snow are mainly W/NW of the forecast area. Precipitation will taper to light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle during the day tomorrow as the mid-level dry slot wraps into the area.
304 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 A low pressure system will bring rainy conditions tonight ahead of a cold front. A broad area of low pressure will continue approaching from the west this evening and overnight. Weak, broad ascent ahead of the low in an anomalously moist environment this afternoon/evening will continue to support light rain and some mist. A cold front will be moving through the area during the morning hours on Thursday as a broad low continues to spin off to the northwest. Forecast lows are near freezing. An unseasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend as an upper level low lifts slowly north across the Great Lakes.
A bit slower ewd translation of deep cntrl NE upper low seen in model trends since last night and not surprising given intensity of this system back west. Very intense LLJ draws a substantial low level theta-e ridge north into se areas and may be sufficient to support some slant-wise convection for a time late evening. Deep upper low over WI Fri morning will steer north into srn ON per downstream blocking. Slow wwd veer follows into Sat as low level thermal trough intensifies and mid level moisture plume enhances snow showers through srn MI. The associated upper low will wobble making little ewd progression by 18Z Thu. A very tight pressure gradient ahead of the low has caused winds to gust to over 20 kts and this will increase to around 30 kts tonight at both terminal sites.
1241 PM PST Wed Dec 14 2022 Blocking high pressure will force the storm track more north, away from the Sierra and western Nevada through the weekend. High pressure, snow cover, and light winds will continue to produce below normal temperatures, valley inversions, and haze through the week into the weekend. A weak brush-by cold front pushing through the region later this evening into Thursday morning will increase a more easterly wind (35- 45 mph) across higher ridges of the Sierra and far western NV that encourages limited low-level mixing and modest relief to the hazy and foggy conditions that settled over the region.
713 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 A cold front associated with the occluded cyclone over the Northern Plains will continue to push through the region tonight.
458 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) GOES-16 Satellite imagery shows the cold front well offshore, leaving behind clear skies and dry weather across S TX.
Low pressure is centered over southeast SD this afternoon, with plenty of wrap-around snowfall spreading across the CWA.
539 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Cooler and breezy conditions will continue tonight through Thursday. The longwave upper level trough continues to shift eastward, resulting in a continued surge of cold air through the region. With the increased dry airmass in place, skies will remain clear, with temperatures dropping into the 20s and low 30s overnight across the region, and highs on Thursday remaining in the low to mid 30s.
This activity was along and ahead of a cold front that will move southeast of CWA by early evening. Cooler and much drier air will filter into our CWA in the wake of the cold front. Morning lows will be much colder but still bottom out warmer than normal from the upper 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Our CWA will remain at the base of a large closed low through Thursday. This will result in near zonal flow aloft that will help a weak center of high pressure settle over our CWA from the west. Although it will be cooler Thursday, highs will top out near normal from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south.
229 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 Tonight, there will be decreasing northerly to northwesterly flow aloft behind the trough over the Midwest. Temperatures will be a bit chilly, with overnight lows mostly in the lower teens across the plains and lower single digits across the high country. A weak trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft will be moving across Colorado Thursday night.
This evening through Thursday night A large upper longwave trof is in place over most of the U. and Nevada is on the backside of the trof.
648 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 A low pressure system will bring rainy conditions tonight ahead of a cold front. A broad area of low pressure will continue approaching from the west this evening and overnight. Weak, broad ascent ahead of the low in an anomalously moist environment this afternoon/evening will continue to support light rain and some mist. A cold front will be moving through the area during the morning hours on Thursday as a broad low continues to spin off to the northwest. Forecast lows are near freezing. An unseasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend as an upper level low lifts slowly north across the Great Lakes.
Once this convection moves out this evening things will quickly quiet down as a cold front moves through. L/W trough takes over much of the CONUS with much cooler air funneling in. However, at this time not too dry as we are not anticipating any freezing temperatures. The amount of rainfall also that has occurred will help keep the dewpoints from dropping too much as well keeping the area from dropping below freezing.
Tonight, there will be decreasing northerly to northwesterly flow aloft behind the trough over the Midwest. Temperatures will be a bit chilly, with overnight lows mostly in the lower teens across the plains and lower single digits across the high country. A weak trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft will be moving across Colorado Thursday night.
341 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Low pressure is centered over southeast SD this afternoon, with plenty of wrap-around snowfall spreading across the CWA.
The intense winter cyclone is centered near Sioux Falls this afternoon. An attendant mid level trough extends southwest into central Kansas where scattered low/mid level stratus continues moving through the subsidence regime.
Dry and cooler than normal conditions will continue through the end of the week. Freezing temperatures are likely in the San Joaquin Valley for much of this week. Some cumulus clouds building in the lower mountains. The high cloud cover may be too thin to mitigate the threat of fog from forming in the San Joaquin later tonight. A ridge along the EPac is providing a dry north flow across much of the west coast. This should reinforce the dry conditions with dry air from the high desert and continue the potential for freezing temperatures in much of the valley due to favorable radiational cooling conditions through the end of the week. High temperatures will below normal with lows near freezing in low lying areas of the valley.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front has already moved out of our area and is currently extending along the LA/MS/AL area. Locally, a drier and cooler airmass has started to filter in as a high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. Tonight: Clear skies, light north/northwest winds along with moderate CAA will lead to cooler conditions. Thursday: With a high pressure in place, dry and cooler weather is anticipated with highs only reaching the 60s. No impacts are expected with this boundary other than a reinforcing surge of cooler air, especially across our northern counties.
513 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 Low pressure is centered over southeast SD this afternoon, with plenty of wrap-around snowfall spreading across the CWA.
632 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 Showers will increase in coverage tonight as a cold front moves through the region. The showers clear out for Thursday with highs mainly in the lower to middle 40s.
At the surface, a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley is pulling an occluded front through north Alabama, marked with a fine line on radar. Look for lows to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s as the cooler air mass begins to settle over the Southeast.
507 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front has already moved out of our area and is currently extending along the LA/MS/AL area. Locally, a drier and cooler airmass has started to filter in as a high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. Tonight: Clear skies, light north/northwest winds along with moderate CAA will lead to cooler conditions. Thursday: With a high pressure in place, dry and cooler weather is anticipated with highs only reaching the 60s. No impacts are expected with this boundary other than a reinforcing surge of cooler air, especially across our northern counties.
218 PM PST Wed Dec 14 2022 Dry and cooler than normal conditions will continue through the end of the week. Freezing temperatures are likely in the San Joaquin Valley for much of this week. Some cumulus clouds building in the lower mountains. The high cloud cover may be too thin to mitigate the threat of fog from forming in the San Joaquin later tonight. A ridge along the EPac is providing a dry north flow across much of the west coast. This should reinforce the dry conditions with dry air from the high desert and continue the potential for freezing temperatures in much of the valley due to favorable radiational cooling conditions through the end of the week. High temperatures will below normal with lows near freezing in low lying areas of the valley.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ After an active first part of the week, quiet and cooler conditions will prevail through tomorrow night. Current temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the region will drop to or below freezing overnight for areas along and west of U. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will move into the area tomorrow and keep highs in the low to mid 50s across North Texas and upper 50s to low 60s in Central Texas.
(This evening through Thursday) Cooler and breezy conditions will continue tonight through Thursday. The longwave upper level trough continues to shift eastward, resulting in a continued surge of cold air through the region. With the increased dry airmass in place, skies will remain clear, with temperatures dropping into the 20s and low 30s overnight across the region, and highs on Thursday remaining in the low to mid 30s.
Some high clouds will build into southern areas this afternoon into the early overnight associated with a trough over the Pacific. We will also see a short wave trough pass to our east this evening into the overnight. The bigger impact with this short wave trough will be increased downslope winds over the southern Cascade and some northerly winds over the Sacramento Valley.
A cold front stretching south from the low will drift through the Quad State late this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s late. Drier air will filter into the area as the sprawling low pressure system lingers over the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. The troughing overhead and colder air advecting into the area will be noticeable. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s; although, breezy conditions will make it feel even colder. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 20s for Thursday night and Friday night. Meanwhile, deep westerly flow will dominate across the PAH forecast area, with slight ridging aloft on Sun. The wind chill effect will be less on Sun near the center of the high.
All severe ingredients are now well southeast of the CWA, with cooler and drier air filtering in from the west. We're seeing some breaks in the low clouds behind the front, but secondary post-frontal development of clouds will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through the daybreak hours. An additional secondary push of cooler and drier air will move into our area this morning as another front analyzed over central Mississippi moves across the southeast. Cooler highs can be expected this afternoon, but not too cold since the airmass is continental in origin that will be filtering in. Maybe just a touch cooler across the far north, but mainly highs in the 50s once again under sunny skies.
Near normal temperatures are expected today as most places will top out in the mid to upper 40s, though the breezy conditions will make it feel cooler.
940 PM PST Wed Dec 14 2022 Weak high pressure will bring dry, mild weather Thursday. On Friday a weak Santa Ana pattern will bring a warmer day to the coastal zones, a colder day to the mountains and high deserts, and breezy northeast winds to the mountains and passes.
A weak cold front will move south across the area during the day, which will keep colder temperatures over the area into Friday. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.
Cooler valley locations have seen winds drop off and temps have cooled accordingly.
1036 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Cooler and breezy conditions will continue tonight through Thursday. The longwave upper level trough continues to shift eastward, resulting in a continued surge of cold air through the region. With the increased dry airmass in place, skies will remain clear, with temperatures dropping into the 20s and low 30s overnight across the region, and highs on Thursday remaining in the low to mid 30s.
Inland frost and freezing temperatures are expected over the next several mornings.
Tonight: Heavy snow across central Wisconsin Light mixed precip continues this afternoon across north-central Wisconsin within a plume of anomalous deep moisture wrapping around the occluded cyclone over the central plains. The highest chances for 6 or more inches of snow remain generally near/north of I-94 with probabilities of 60% for at least 8 inches up into parts of Clark and Taylor Counties.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Radar and observations continue to show a sharp cutoff to the steady snowfall over portions of NE Montana as low pressure tracks northeast into the Dakotas. In any event, snow will continue steady at times through this evening before gradually diminishing and becoming more intermittent on Thursday as the low begins to depart. That said, north to northwest winds wrapping around the backside of the low will range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times today and Thursday, leading to blowing snow concerns.
(Today) The last of the rainfall will soon exit northeast AL as the cold front presses east. This as a strong upper low spins across the upper MS River valley.
Inland frost and freezing temperatures are expected over the next several mornings. Today and Tonight: A rex blocking pattern will exist featuring high pressure aloft over the Gulf of Alaska and a closed upper low over the eastern Pacific. This will support expansive surface ridging from the northeast Pacific through the west coast with a benign weather pattern which will persist over the next several days. Expect little in the way of sensible weather, although some late night/early morning fog and/or freezing fog is possible especially over the North Bay. After a seasonally cool day look for another chilly night with frost and freezing conditions likely for many areas.
By sunrise, rain will exit and highs will be the lower to middle 40s.
1033 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) GOES-16 Satellite imagery shows the cold front well offshore, leaving behind clear skies and dry weather across S TX.
Temperatures won't fluctuate a whole lot with the initial occluded frontal passage but with a stronger cold front tracking behind the first front, that'll be where temperatures are expected to fall. Highs for Friday rebound slight with temperatures in the low to mid-40s. Temperatures should keep this mostly rain/drizzle but can't rule out a snow flurry or two as temperatures dip to around freezing Friday night.
Lows tonight will fall to or slightly below freezing across the northwest zones with mainly middle 30s elsewhere. Thursday night will be similar to tonight but overnight lows may be a degree or two cooler. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 40s along the Red River to mid 50s across Central Texas as a cold front move across the region.
This will result in a bit of a bifurcation of temperatures, with cooler readings in the Big Country of low to mid 50s for highs, with upper 50s to lower 60s for areas along/south of the frontal boundary. Tonight, with light winds and clear skies, we should see another night with near normal lows ranging from the upper 20s north to around freezing south of Interstate 20.
We'll continue to see broad troughiness over most of the CONUS the next 72 hours, which will keep us under a cool and dry northwesterly flow aloft. A weak split under the dirty ridge near the west coast is expected to bring a mid level impulse in from the west late in the weekend, however it looks like meager dynamics and available moisture.
Models are in pretty good agreement, showing the closed low will tend to drop east or southeast to western or central Iowa tonight, then lift northeast to upper Michigan by Friday evening.
1037 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front has already moved out of our area and is currently extending along the LA/MS/AL area. Locally, a drier and cooler airmass has started to filter in as a high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. Tonight: Clear skies, light north/northwest winds along with moderate CAA will lead to cooler conditions. Thursday: With a high pressure in place, dry and cooler weather is anticipated with highs only reaching the 60s. No impacts are expected with this boundary other than a reinforcing surge of cooler air, especially across our northern counties.
As of 1:30 AM MST, our office in Bellemont reached -1 degrees and could possibly get cooler than this. Many other locations across the High Country are seeing/will see single-digit temperatures. The only outlier to this is near Snowbowl, where some small- scale influences have led to slightly warmer temperatures and stronger north-northeast winds.
The mean-layer ridge remains intact but is now centered over the Western Caribbean. Low-level ridging centered to the northeast of the Bahamas stretches southwest across Cuba. A convectively active cold front stretches southwest from the FL Panhandle to near the Bay of Campeche.
The warm front will continue to lift across and out of the area tonight ahead of the cold front moving in from out of the west. After squall passes offshore, there will remain a chance of showers along the surface cold front through about 20-22z as it moves across the terminals. Between the squall line and approaching cold front, breezy westerly winds will range between 12-15 kts sustained with gusts of 20-25 kts outside of shower activity. A warm front will lift north of the region this evening. A strong cold front will move southeast across region during the day Thursday. High pressure will build from the west behind this front for Thursday night into Friday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) A broad, upper level trough is over most of the country. Low temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning will a little cooler than those this morning. A cold front will begin moving into the area on Friday and will result in high temperatures mostly in the 40s for the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico.
Persistent troughing across the CONUS ends up being replaced over the next several days with a northwest flow regime. Reinforcing cold air arrives for a day or so into Friday evening as more Canadian air spills into the region on the backside of this slowly departing cyclone.
Showers exiting east as a cold front moves across the area. Discussion: Showers continue to move across the area as a cold front moves through. Highs will be near normal and in the low to mid 50s.
The region continues to be heavily influenced by the lumbering H500 trough churning off the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With the upper low center traversing Iowa today, our region will remain rooted in primarily northwest flow, keeping temperatures rather chilly for mid-December along with breezy west winds at the surface. Even with highs in the lower to mid 30s this afternoon, sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 will result in wind chills in the 20s through the afternoon.
Windy but otherwise tranquil conditions will persist across western Kansas today and tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure in the Upper Midwest shifts farther east across the Great Lakes, allowing a northwesterly flow aloft to prevail across the Western High Plains throughout the period. Meanwhile, an already fairly dry air mass across the high plains of western Kansas will be reinforced by a low level northwesterly downslope flow. Under mostly sunny skies, look for afternoon highs back up into the mid 30s(F) to the lower 40s(F). Expect lows tonigh down into the teens(F) in west central Kansas to possibly the lower 20s(F) in south central Kansas.
1137 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 A cold front associated with the occluded cyclone over the Northern Plains will continue to push through the region tonight.
Parent upper low over northeast NE will meld in with intense secondary wave lifting up through ne IL attm and essentially reform into a deep stacked low over WI Fri aftn. Small scale perturbations follow through srn flank of WI cntrd upper low Fri. Otherwise deepening lake thermal trough will aide in developing lake banding late day over nrn Berrien of which will turn more vigorous overnight. WI upper low will shift ewd through nrn lower MI Sat. Upper level block from ern Canada through Greenland along with concurrent steep upper ridge amplification into the Arctic ocean complicate wide ranging model guidance.
WV imagery indicates an amplified upper level trough of low pressure transitioning east through the Upper Midwest, giving way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure is shifting eastward across northern Iowa. The intense winter cyclone is centered near Sioux Falls this afternoon. An attendant mid level trough extends southwest into central Kansas where scattered low/mid level stratus continues moving through the subsidence regime.