Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, a dry air mass along with building upper level high pressure ridge from the east will lead to benign aviation conditions through the period. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough axis from northeast Texas to the Brush Country. This trough will translate west to north Texas down to the western Hill Country later today and be quasi-stationary into Tuesday. The mid to upper level ridge over Louisiana and southeast Texas will build southwest into the region today through Tuesday.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread to the remainder of our inland locations this afternoon, with highs generally in the low-mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
Timing in the high-res models is somewhat varied though, with some blasting a line through the region early this morning and others showing more boundaries that will lead to development later in the days.
Subtropical Ridge builds over Central Texas allowing a drier and subsident airmass to take hold. A slight warming trend is also expected as a thermal ridge moves into our area. Temperatures a degree warmer and dewpoints not mixing out as well as today may allow for more widespread heat indices of 105 to 107 on Tuesday along and east of I-35.
545 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2016 Current surface map shows cold front across northern Wyoming into western North Dakota. Weak high pressure settles in over the area Monday night.
Upper level ridging will gradually push westward while a frontal system approaches the area mid week.
734 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather today into tonight.
Our next cold front is expected to arrive early Tuesday bringing another windy day to the Inland Northwest.
The highest rainfall and thunderstorm coverage will be over the Mogollon Rim from Flagstaff to the White Mountains. Precipitation amounts over the next few days will likely be in the 1 to 3 inch range with the highest amounts over the higher terrain. Due to the high moisture levels we increased chances for showers each day this the week. A downward trend in shower activity remains in the forecast for this weekend as a trough moving into the west coast helps to advect drier air into Arizona from the west.
A trough of low pressure currently across eastern Colorado will slide eastward today and into western Kansas by tonight. Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower 70s or around 70 degrees. A weak surface cold front will drop south into western Kansas by Tuesday morning as an upper level trough moves east across the Central Plains. Models continue to differ on how far south this surface boundary will move before lifting back north as a warm front Tuesday night.
1124 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough scoots across southern portions of the area Today. Upper level ridging noses into the area by midweek.
/issued 353 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Upper ridge now becoming centered over the Sabine River valley as the upper trof over the nrn Great Lakes region continues to push ewd. The upper ridge will continue to increase its influence across our region today through at least mid week, which will allow for our temps to climb into the mid to upper 90s for most of the region.
This complex of storms will weaken as the low-level jet subsides and veers.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through midweek and cool slightly late in the week as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. high pressure positioned over SoCal. There is a little bit of monsoonal moisture wrapping around the ridge of high pressure producing a slight chance for thunderstorms over SoCal. For the Bay Area, persistent onshore flow and dominating high pressure will result in very little change through mid-week.
The highest rainfall and thunderstorm coverage will be over the Mogollon Rim from Flagstaff to the White Mountains. Precipitation amounts over the next few days will likely be in the 1 to 3 inch range with the highest amounts over the higher terrain. Due to the high moisture levels we increased chances for showers each day this the week. A downward trend in shower activity remains in the forecast for this weekend as a trough moving into the west coast helps to advect drier air into Arizona from the west. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially over the higher terrain after 18Z Monday.
Ridging aloft will subtly increase across the region over the next 48 hours. At the surface, high pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area front the east. Both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, highs will warm into the low and middle 90s. This, combined with dew points in the low and middle 70s through the period, will yield afternoon heat index values generally between 100-105. However, and primarily Tuesday, the upper ridge will be positioned such that a southeast diving complex of storms could perhaps clip far eastern portions of the CWA.
Latest satellite showed a mid to upper level ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley with the 594 dkm high center over the southwest Louisiana. Highs in the lower to middle 90s still looks to be on track. Ridging aloft will subtly increase across the region over the next 48 hours. At the surface, high pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area front the east. Both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, highs will warm into the low and middle 90s. This, combined with dew points in the low and middle 70s through the period, will yield afternoon heat index values generally between 100-105. However, and primarily Tuesday, the upper ridge will be positioned such that a southeast diving complex of storms could perhaps clip far eastern portions of the CWA.
1040 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough will cross the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday. An associated surface cold front will settle south through VA Tuesday and through NC Tuesday night.
Today Through Tuesday Night A ridge of high pressure will strengthen from the south/southwest in the near term. Under the ridge, chances for rain will decrease and temperatures will go up. Around the periphery of the ridge, cannot rule out isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially in northern/eastern Arkansas.
The main story today will be the low pressure system and associated frontal boundary sliding from western SD this morning to the southeastern corner of the state by 12Z Tuesday. Dry high pressure will slide in behind the exiting low for Tuesday.
616 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 First calendar day of August appears to be starting off rather quiet as high pressure remains anchored over the Great lakes region. high pressure slips a bit more east as a mid-level low moves east through southern Canada along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border by early this evening. Push of 850mb moisture transport ahead of the low and warm front expected to fuel scattered/elevated thunderstorms across the Dakotas into MN/IA through this afternoon. but there is some indication among the deterministic models of storms firing again in the afternoon mainly south of I-94 ahead of the warm front from northern IA into northern Illinois.
Current forecast of afternoon dew points falling into the low to mid 60s west of I-135 with upper 60s to lower 70s east of the turnpike look reasonable. In the broader scale, the main track of disturbances in the jet stream remains well north of the region, with upper level high pressure developing over the region. The only convection near the region is associated with the low level moisture transport, which is focused in Missouri. Upper level ridge building currently in progress will continue, with the ridge becoming fully established today.
The best chance for some convection early will be on the higher terrain features but later this afternoon into the evening, there should be more development as the short wave trough builds into the Southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 92 74 / 40 40 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 89 72 / 30 40 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 91 72 / 40 40 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 87 66 / 30 40 40 20.
In the broader scale, the main track of disturbances in the jet stream remains well north of the region, with upper level high pressure developing over the region. The only convection near the region is associated with the low level moisture transport, which is focused in Missouri. Upper level ridge building currently in progress will continue, with the ridge becoming fully established today.
/issued 344 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Another hot day is expected this afternoon as heights increase around 1-2 dam under the mid level ridge.
/issued 354 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Broad ridging aloft extends over the southern CONUS early this morning as an upper high centered over southeast Texas intensifies. With the airmass over the forecast area continuing to dry in response to the building high pressure area over East Texas, hot and dry conditions will continue. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower 70s.
Weak high pressure near Lake Michigan kept a light easterly breeze across the area during the overnight hours. Early morning temperatures ranged from the low 60s in Freeport, Illinois, to the low 70s at Keokuk, Iowa. Have stayed close to consensus guidance for afternoon highs, with clouds expected to temper highs in the low to mid 80s. Areas along and north of Interstate 80 still appear favored for the higher rainfall amounts, which could be locally heavy as precipitable water values increase to around two inches.
Little change can be expected over the next several days, with typical cool temperatures along the coast and slightly warmer than normal temperatures inland.
A little warmer today as upper flow backs from westerly to wswly ahead of uppper low/trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska. Model consensus, while not great, brings surface cold front across eastern Oregon Tuesday afternoon and swrn Idaho Tuesday evening. MET highs for Tuesday are now in the mid 90s there reflecting slower approach of the upper trough, as recommended by the GFS yesterday.
A very dry westerly flow remains over the area today though an upper low and trough approaching the coast will turn the flow more southwesterly in the afternoon and tonight. The change in the flow will raise the temperatures today 5 or 6 degrees on average to the mid 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations and upper 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. Winds will be generally less than 10 mph today but will pick up around sundown as the trough begins to tighten up pressure gradients. Another cold front will begin to impact the area early Tuesday morning.
However most locations should mix down into the mid to upper 60s when air temperatures reach the lower to mid 90s. Therefore, the highest heat index values should remain between 99 and 104 degrees today.
Potent short wave on water vapor imagery in western Saskatchewan dampening 500mb ridging across the Dakotas.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is anchored across the northern half of the sunshine state.
Due to cloud cover, high temperatures this afternoon will remain in the lower to middle 80s. As upper low currently over Alberta tracks eastward across southern Canada, downstream ridging will help nudge the frontal boundary back northward tonight. With warm front passing through the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet Tuesday/Tuesday night.
with additional blossoming of airmass convection across inland SE Ga downstream of a weak mid level trough axis moving slowly eastward across eastern AL this morning. Best chances of rainfall in the 50-60% range were advertised this afternoon and early evening across SE Ga and southward between I-75 and the Highway 301 corridor in NE Fl where sea breezes and outflows will converge.
There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially along late day lake breeze boundaries, however the ridge aloft will strengthen and move closer. High pressure building over the area will produce light northerly wind today that will become light and variable or calm tonight. Upper level ridge axis will build into Central Great Lakes tonight, as large and deep upper level low over Western Canada tracks off to the east-northeast. Subsequently, should be able to get away with a dry Tuesday as upper level ridge holds on and warm front holds off. 850 mb temps of 16 c look to support highs mostly in the mid 80s, with normally warmer locations pushing into the upper 80s.
A weak ridge of high pressure briefly returns tonight and Monday before another upper trough moves over the area Tuesday. This trough may generate a few showers across the north along with temps cooling a little below normal again.
Present indications are that central and southeast MO should have the highest pops this morning. I backed off pops this afternoon to chances but don't have any great feel for location due to unknowns in the warm front position and any residual boundary.
Warm front that arcs across our northeast may continue to be focus of isolated to widely scattered cells, however, as piece mealed energy ejected out from primary MCS interacts with boundary. As the synoptic scale ridge builds to our west, we'll see with time, the thermal field back and lose its difluence over time today over the PAH FA, as we warm sector. As a result, we'll see some positive vorticity advection later today diving se overtop the ridge and across our northern/eastern counties, markedly upping pops there to mid or high chance, tapering to slight chance southward and westward across the remainder of the FA closer to the higher heights over SEMO/Ozarks.
931 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Weak high pressure will remain north of the area today. Low pressure will track south of the region tonight through Tuesday. However, the weather disturbance, which will be moving very slowly, will weaken and push south later today into tonight as upper level ridging presses in from the Great Lakes. An upper level trof will cross the region Tuesday with partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers.
Subjective 00Z upper air analysis indicates an upper-level trough from AB into WA/OR, with another from the eastern Great Lakes into the Appalachians.
/issued 334 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Ridge ridge ridge. The sub tropical ridge stretching across the country will be centered today and Tuesday along the Texas Gulf Coast. By late in the week an upper trough is expected to move across the West Coast but will not be strong enough to displace the ridge.
High pressure will slow grasp control of our weather early this week, which will help bump temperatures back into the 90s across the entire region.
Highs today in the low 90s seem reasonable for most of the forecast area.
1121 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure remains to our north, while a series of weak lows pass by to our south.
722 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Aviation High pressure will provide dry and pleasant weather today through most of Tuesday.
Also an outflow boundary flowing ahead of the storms possibly limiting/blocking the inflows. a cold front extending from northeast North Dakota southwest to near Bismarck and the eastward moving outflow boundary from teh nocturnal convection intersect in the vicinity that the latest HRRR runs re develop convection suggesting this interaction could reignite the convection and form an mcs that tracks eastward across the state late this morning and afternoon.
849 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes region continues moving east and should reach the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough and a moist air mass will bring increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes region to the Tennessee Valley will gradually move eastward. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend into the area with lee-side troughing. The upper trough axis over the east coast will push offshore on Tuesday with upper flow becoming northwesterly. An upper ridge will extend across the Plains promoting continued northwesterly flow into the forecast area.
Differential Divergence looks to support the continuance of convection over the forecast area tonight as the warm front lifts toward southern Minnesota. Temperatures today will be fairly close to climatological normals, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure at the surface continues to ridge across the area through the period as an upper low/trough moves over the peninsula today, merges with a longwave trough over the eastern US early Tuesday, and then starts to lift out Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit warmer this afternoon, with lower to mid 90s expected, and max heat index values of 100-105 this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid 70s to near 80 at the coast. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be generally in the lower 90s with heat indexes again at 100-105. Weak and broad upper ridging will remain centered west of the region through the forecast period.
For now, the current temperatures are on track and no adjustments to the high temps are needed right now.
A cold front will slip into the area Tuesday morning. with a ridge aloft resulting in weak deep layer shear.
The dynamics for this boundary to continue to develop training storms remains around until the low level jet finally weakens late in the morning. Higher resolution models also try to form some scattered thunderstorms over NW Missouri as the low level jet retreats and the boundary along its edge moves south. The low pressure over eastern Colorado that helped to develop the strong low level jet tonight shifts more to the north Monday night into Tuesday shifting the formation of the jet to the west and north. Due to less cloud coverage and the strong warm air advection over the region the last few days the high temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday.
Another weak short wave exiting Colorado, this time helping to nudge the upper ridge over the southern U. Eventually the eastward shift of the ridge will bring moisture back in from the southwest, but that will not be coming into the central mountains until tonight at earliest. Forecast temps look pretty good, we may need to go slightly warmer today if the clouds are slow to develop this afternoon. Models have the upper ridge centered over Colorado and Utah on Tuesday and Tuesday night with weak westerly flow aloft.
Given the cloud cover and the dent that will put in temperatures, a very worked over 12z sounding out of KTUS, a tremendous cap to break through (even assuming we warm into the lower 90s) and moist adiabatic lapse rates from 650mb upward, deep convection will likely struggle today. As for temperatures, it's almost certain that we'll barely break out of the lower 90s this afternoon. Meanwhile, the GFS/ECMWF depict an inverted trough and/or a weak upper low to meander across the area into Wed morning.
/Issued 320 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather through Monday. Low pressure at the surface and aloft will remain offshore in the Western Atlantic through the period. high pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the sensible weather. Easterly flow will continue through Monday, but may go light and variable overnight for a period as high pressure moves directly overhead. Temps in the 80s are expected outside of the higher terrain for the next two days. In the mountains, high temps in the lower to middle 70s will prevail.
513 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Dry high pressure will build into the region through Monday. Dry high pressure centered near the area will dominate.
542 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 As the upper level ridge to our west retrogrades, a trough will eventually develop over the eastern United States.
Higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F from I-72 south while lower dewpoints in the lower 60s north of Lincoln. If Springfield tops 90 degrees this afternoon (which looks likely with temp already up to 85F at 10 am), it will be the 10th in the last 11 days to be in the low to mid 90s, since heat wave started on Thu/Jun 9th. Isolated showers are already developing in far southern IL as southerly return flow on the west side of the high creates increasing isentropic lift. Even warmer temperatures expected tomorrow as warm air moves into the region from the ridging in the west. Temperatures reaching into the lower 90s, with enough moisture/humidity in the air to spike the heat indices into the upper 90s/close to 100F.
Upper ridge will hold sway across the area the next few days though its axis will gradually shift just south of Kansas by the middle of the week. The developing northwest flow aloft over the Midwest will allow a couple of weak cold fronts to sag south toward and perhaps into parts of Kansas.
Clear skies and cooler weather was seen across the forecast area in the wake of last nights cold front. Ridge axis moves over the region Monday bringing warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure situated southeast of the area will allow for dry conditions across the region tonight. A cold front will approach the area on Monday and move through Monday night.
The next chance for rain can be expected with a Monday night cold front. Dry high pressure will further strengthen this afternoon with insolation, neutral advection, and the rising high pressure dome between Canadian and Mid Atlantic Coastal troughing driving temperatures about 7 to 10 degrees above the averages. The Upper Ohio Region is projected to remain sandwiched between those low pressure troughs into Monday. The forecast of Upper Ohio Ridge erosion remains on track although system timing is quickening from previous runs with cold front encroachment and passage now slated for Monday night.
Monday temperatures will be 15-20 degrees cooler than Sunday, with mild highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s under breezy northwest winds.
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 18z surface data has high pressure over the Tennessee Valley with a cold front across the Dakotas. After midnight the next cold front approaches the area. On Monday, the cold front moves through the area.
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure centered offshore will continue to provide a warm southwest flow through Monday night.
Cold front extending across central sd this morning moving east. Otherwise, still expect tsra development this afternoon along the cold front as it moves into northeast sd/west central mn. A cold front currently in western North Dakota will track into western counties by late morning, with moisture pooling ahead of the front to assist in increasing low level humidity and potentially shifting winds to a more southwesterly component which will enhance mixing.
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The majority of the short term period will feature warm and dry weather across eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in place just a bit longer. Tonights weather will feature modest ridge valley temperature differences, with ridgetop lows around 60 expected, while the valleys are forecast to drop into the low to mid 50s. Cloud cover will gradually be on the increase on Monday, as a cold front approaches from the north.
At the surface, cool front has nearly crossed through the CWA, with gusty northwest winds and not much cooler air behind it. High pressure will slide into the region tonight, and under mostly clear skies, lows will be in the 50s. Flattened upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Monday.
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through Monday, with high temperatures on Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move east across the region Monday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ A weakness in the upper level ridge will continue to translate to the southwest through the morning and daytime.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through the night.