Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The tightening of the onshore pressure gradient ahead of the southeastward-advancing lee low/Southern Plains cold front will pick up gusty south winds through the afternoon into early evening hours. /ISSUED 900 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/ Latest surface observations show temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. The rest of the forecast looks on track with a cold front expected Saturday afternoon still.
South to southwest wind gusts over 20 KTS are expected by mid morning at KABI and KSJT as lee trough strengthens. The combination of a 850 MB thermal ridge and gusty southwest winds will result in a very warm afternoon across West Central Texas. The unseasonably warm temperatures on Friday will be short lived as a strong cold front moves across West Central Texas on Saturday. Much cooler temperatures can be expected on Saturday with highs only in the lower to mid 60s across most of the area. The winds will relax by the evening as high pressure settles in across the region.
1230 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 A high pressure system will build in tonight providing gradual clearing. The high remains on Friday. Strong cold front for Saturday. A high pressure system will provide dry weather and plenty of sunshine for Friday. The area of high pressure pushes quickly east allowing a strong system to approach from the west by late Friday night. Models suggest a warm front will push northeast across the area on Saturday with a strong cold front pushing east Saturday night. Air aloft will be quite cold and this should allow the precipitation to be in the form of snow even with surface temperatures several degrees above freezing across the lowland counties.
A strong cold front will approach the region Fri night with precipitation chances increasing from N to S as the front approaches. A strong cold front will push the area Sat.
1233 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Dry and warm weather is expected Saturday before rain chances return with a cold front Sunday. Ample sunshine and strong warm advection ahead of the approaching cold front front will support much warmer than average temperature this afternoon. Will keep the higher gusts in the terrain through the overnight, but again, don't think this will meet advisory criteria based on the latest models and local research.
Clouds will also increase during the afternoon ahead of the approaching trough and tropical system. Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 73 76 71 / 30 90 100 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 78 69 / 10 80 100 100 Oak Ridge, TN 85 69 76 69 / 10 80 100 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 65 77 66 / 10 80 100 100.
VFR conditions will prevail behind a cold front at all sites for the remainder of the forecast period, with one exception. /Issued 1013 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Cold front is progressing across eastern Oklahoma and will be moving into northwest Arkansas soon. Showers are rapidly weakening this morning ahead of the cold front located generally along a line from KMCI/KCNU/KOKC around 12Z. /Issued 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have been steadily weakening over the past few hours as they move into a more stable airmass.
654 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Cold front continues pushing east into NW AR this morning. Lower confidence in this scenario but did include low MVFR BR given the low dewpoint depressions, clear skies, near calm winds, and residual low-level moisture. Southeastern terminals carry the highest confidence in MVFR cigs and VCSH associated with Nate's deep Gulf moisture influx. Today Through Sunday Night A weakening cold front continues pushing toward the area this morning and will be one of two weather makers for this period. The parent trough is forecast to eject north of the area later today, so the best energy will remain north of the state. Drier and cooler air is noted behind this boundary but a significant change of air mass is not expected.
Mean layer high pressure is located to our east with the 500 mb center located a couple hundred miles north of the Bahamas. weak low level trough is noted just offshore of the Carolinas then southwest into northern FL area. Locally, weak low level trough over the area will lift northward today and winds will pick up to around 10 to near 15 mph by late morning and aftn.
Slightly cooler weather is forecast over the weekend, but temperatures will remain warmer than normal.
1034 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Dry and warm weather is expected Saturday before rain chances return with a cold front Sunday. Residual clouds and moisture should lift northward with the northward moving warm front this morning. Temperatures are likely to reach 80 across much of the Ohio Valley with mid-upper 80's likely so long as we remain mostly sunny in advance of the approaching cold front. A quick moving low pressure system will move through the central Great Lakes before merging with the broader upper- level flow. As it does, it will sweep a cold front through the area overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Will keep strong gusts in the high terrain overnight into Sunday morning.
Low pressure will move through the state today, bringing rounds of showers to southern Wisconsin. Ceilings have improved over the last several hours, but are expected to go back down today as the low moves through. Forecast confidence is medium to high: A potent low pressure system will move through Wisconsin today, bringing multiple rounds of showers with a few storms also possible. All locations should see showers this afternoon though as the trough axis swings through.
1013 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Cold front is progressing across eastern Oklahoma and will be moving into northwest Arkansas soon. Showers are rapidly weakening this morning ahead of the cold front located generally along a line from KMCI/KCNU/KOKC around 12Z. /Issued 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have been steadily weakening over the past few hours as they move into a more stable airmass.
an influx of moisture associated with an inverted trof tracking tracking across the northwest Gulf, has elevated precipitable water on the Lake Charles Upper Sounding to 2.
1011 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Narrow line of showers will continue to move east across the CWA today ahead of the cold front. CVKING Scattered showers continue to move northeastward through central and northeast Missouri early this morning in warm sector ahead of prefrontal trof. This trof has moved into far western MO as of 07z with showers and storms along it. Models continue to indicate instability to diminish along trof as it approaches forecast area this morning. In the meantime, main cold front will move through later today, exiting forecast area by 00z Sunday. As winds diminish, some concern about fog development, but will depend on how much rain falls today and how moist the lower levels are. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
Showers are rapidly weakening this morning ahead of the cold front located generally along a line from KMCI/KCNU/KOKC around 12Z. /Issued 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have been steadily weakening over the past few hours as they move into a more stable airmass.
Skies will rapidly clear behind the cold front and a beautiful day will unfold. Winds will quickly return from the south tomorrow as a fairly deep mid to upper trough digs into the Rockies.
High pressure remains situated to our east as the southerly flow across Middle Tennessee gradually strengthens. Nate is projected to make landfall about 24 hours from now, and the latest forecast track brings the low center across East Tennessee about 24 hours after that.
706 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Storm system over the central Plains will be moving northeast today, with a trailing cold front expected to cross the forecast area this afternoon.
As this front moves east today, the cold front will drop southeast across the forecast area. There continues to be some differences between the NAM/GFS with the strength of the winds with the GFS on the high side when looking at the potential for mixing down higher winds during max heating. Cold advection behind the cold front, combined with mid level forcing could produce a few sprinkles/showers over the forecast area tonight.
/issued 403 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ A 500mb ridge over the region is forecast to keep a southeast wind across the area. A similar pattern is in place for tomorrow, with actually high PoPs for most of the area, as Nate looks to slightly weaken the ridge.
TEC PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION: As an upper level trough and strong jet aloft remain over the area this morning, the threat for high winds continues for the Little Rockies today. Winds are expected to relax tonight, though another breezy day will follow on Sunday as the upper trough deepens further across the Western U. This will lead to height falls over northeast Montana and thus expecting cooler temperatures.
/issued 559 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ 12Z TAF issuance A cold front continues to move south through the area this morning. /issued 421 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Current observations show the cold front is moving into the Permian Basin with cooler temperatures in the 50s filtering south.
713 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Scattered showers continue to move northeastward through central and northeast Missouri early this morning in warm sector ahead of prefrontal trof. This trof has moved into far western MO as of 07z with showers and storms along it. Models continue to indicate instability to diminish along trof as it approaches forecast area this morning. In the meantime, main cold front will move through later today, exiting forecast area by 00z Sunday. As winds diminish, some concern about fog development, but will depend on how much rain falls today and how moist the lower levels are. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
645 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Forecast on track with southerly winds across the western two thirds of the FA and ridge axis with light winds and fog persisting across the eastern zones. During the rest of the day increasing westerly winds will help temperatures rise into the low 70s and upper 60s across the area this afternoon. Highest winds should be on the higher terrain of the Pembina escarpment, Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne basin.
635 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 /12Z TAFS/ Expect brief MVFR ceilings for a couple hours this morning in the vicinity of a cold front. A prefrontal trough has shifted winds to the west and northwest over most of the area. /issued 413 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is making rapid southward progress across the area early this morning, and has reached from Abilene to south of Robert Lee at 3 am. Highs today in the lower to mid 80s, with lows tonight dropping into the 50s with clear skies.
As Hurricane Nate is moving onshore early Sunday, a cold front will be making its way across the Midsouth. Flow aloft will gradually shift from more Westerly to South-Southwesterly over the region causing the cold front to stall somewhere along. The complex interaction between the remnants of Nate and the cold front along with uncertainty in the exact track of Nate results in a very low confidence forecast over the next few days.
1149 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Narrow line of showers will continue to move east across the CWA today ahead of the cold front. CVKING Scattered showers continue to move northeastward through central and northeast Missouri early this morning in warm sector ahead of prefrontal trof. This trof has moved into far western MO as of 07z with showers and storms along it. Models continue to indicate instability to diminish along trof as it approaches forecast area this morning. In the meantime, main cold front will move through later today, exiting forecast area by 00z Sunday. As winds diminish, some concern about fog development, but will depend on how much rain falls today and how moist the lower levels are. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
628 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Widespread rain and a few embedded storms continue to track across the entire region this morning ahead of a cold front which is just now entering far northwest Missouri. Cold front will make steady eastward progress through the morning and will reach central MO some time around 10 or 11 AM.
At the surface, cold front extends from southern IA into south central KS and eventually into the TX Panhandle. Models continue to agree on diving another piece of energy into the Central Great Basin by Sun evening and by Mon afternoon will be moving out of the central Rockies and into the high Plains.
1108 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Data from the Key West morning radiosonde balloon indicated a deep, moist, unstable, and weakly inhibited south-southeasterly flow, averaging 160/27 knots in the lowest 10,000 feet. Winds have been highest west of the Seven Mile Bridge, closer to the steeper pressure gradient induced by Hurricane Nate. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all zones west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
757 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Warm front lifts north across Northern New York and Vermont today. More rain showers are expected Sunday as a cold front crosses the area. Warm front lifts north across the area today and we will be under strong warm air advection through early Sunday morning. Maximum temperatures will generally be in the 70s across the area, possibly warmer if we clear out enough for some decent sunshine. Feel most of our area will have measurable precipitation as cold front crosses our forecast area west to east. Early afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, this again will depend on amount of clearing behind cold front when showers end.
936 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic will gradually move offshore. A warm front extends in Ontario Canada southward into Missouri.
Rain late tonight night and Sunday, as a cold front approaches.
This moisture is out ahead of Hurricane Nate and is being drawn northward by an upper low now along the NE/IA border. Surface analysis reveals a sub-1000mb low pressure system across the central Plains with an elongated warm front draped across the the Great Lakes region into the northeastern US. The low pressure over the central Plains will lift northeastward and weaken as the day progresses, but a cold front associated with the low will steadily move toward the region, along with ongoing precipitation and convection that fired off this morning. Our region will be well into the warm sector ahead of the low, and 850mb/700mb Theta-E plots show strong Theta-E advection across our region starting shortly after 12z this morning. As evening approaches, the interaction of the cold front with the moist, juicy atmosphere will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Clouds are ahead of a surface cold front, and in an area of synoptic scale ascent. As this front moves east today, the cold front will drop southeast across the forecast area. There continues to be some differences between the NAM/GFS with the strength of the winds with the GFS on the high side when looking at the potential for mixing down higher winds during max heating. Cold advection behind the cold front, combined with mid level forcing could produce a few sprinkles/showers over the forecast area tonight.
Sunny weather with less humidity and slightly cooler temperatures will occur this afternoon. Forecast highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s appear to be reasonable and were not adjusted, though would not be surprised if a few locations in far northwestern Oklahoma near Buffalo, Gage, and Woodward as well as locations in southeastern Oklahoma near Durant and Atoka get a few degrees warmer than currently forecast. Skies will rapidly clear behind the cold front and a beautiful day will unfold. Winds will quickly return from the south tomorrow as a fairly deep mid to upper trough digs into the Rockies.
Moisture associated with the broad low pressure around Nate could move into the offshore waters today through Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible offshore. The drier flow will also help to warm temperatures across our area with highs into the lower 90s area wide. Expected temps even a couple of degrees warmer on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
1101 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Warm front lifts north across Northern New York and Vermont today.
Windy conditions persist across much of the region today, especially in the higher terrain, but are expected to diminish Saturday night into Sunday. A surface cold front will bring cooler temperatures to much of the forecast area today and especially on Sunday.
Today A cold front will slowly work its way from west to east across the forecast area this afternoon making for a breezy day. Thunderstorm Chances: A broken line of low topped convection -- with little to no lightning -- may form along the cold front during the mid to late afternoon, probably east of a line from Independence to Mount Pleasant.
614 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Light rain showers will taper off through the early morning hours as the responsible upper level low and surface cold front continue to track further off to the east. with temperatures returning to the low to mid 70s across the majority of the forecast area.
Expect breezy winds to develop Sunday afternoon as a cold front approaches the state.
/Issued 340 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ High pressure ridge continues across the region keeping a quiet forecast in the short term.
GOES Satellite imagery shows an upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest this morning. In advance of this trough is a cold front that is currently moving across the Divide, reaching Northeast Montana in late afternoon. Templer Previous discussion - One more comfortably warm day is in store for the region today, ahead of an advancing cold front set to impact northeast Montana this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Overnight tonight and through Saturday, as the main trough axis and energy moves over NE Montana, another similar round of light rain showers is expected, mainly near and north of Hwy 2.
Temperatures will trend warmer with highs in the upper 60s in northeast Minnesota, to the middle 70s in north- central Minnesota, to near 80 degrees in the St.
1201 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure will remain over the area today, keeping a dry and mostly clear forecast. The upper-level ridge will build through this evening, allowing our daytime highs to creep up from yesterday's readings. High pressure will remain anchored through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry.
Another result of deep mixing will be much warmer than normal temperatures for today, with maximum temperatures 15-20 degrees above seasonal normals. Progressive long wave trough will move into the intermountain west by late tonight. As trough moves into plains early Saturday, frontal boundary will push into forecast area, thus expect coverage of showers and storm to increase. Trough moves quickly across plains and front will be through most of the forecast area by late afternoon, thus total rainfall amounts likely will be less than one inch in most locations, with precipitation threat ending by early evening.
H85 temps are prog to warm to around 17/18 C today across the region (and even warmer on Saturday). these warmer temps aloft should be able to mix down to the sfc.
/Issued 726 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ High pressure ridge continues across the region keeping a quiet forecast in the short term.
/issued 405 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the area into the early portion of the weekend. Low pressure still forecast to develop in the lee of the Rockies Saturday as a potent trough moves across the western US.
Cooler temperatures on the other side of the weekends rain. For Saturday, the warm airmass is still in place over the region as the upper trof moves across the Rockies and into the Plains. With the low to the south keeping the better dynamics, ILX may end up on the edge of the northern stream, and just north of the developing low over the Gulf Coast.
High pressure will move slowly east during the taf period.
Slightly cooler temperatures for the second half of the week but remaining dry and warmer than normal.
/issued 410 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ High pressure over the southeastern United States and a stalled frontal boundary draped over Cuba and the Bahamas will provide a tightening gradient that will allow the wind over South Florida to pick up heading into the weekend.
The southern piece of energy, at the basal portion of the parent trough, will slide across the central/southern Plains this weekend. An associated Pacific cold front will interact with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector Saturday and Saturday night.
High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Increasing southerly winds on the backside of departing high pressure ridge will begin to pull deeper column moisture from the southern plains toward Wisconsin over the next 24 hours. So moisture will be in place as strong cold front advances across the northern plains into Wisconsin later Saturday and Saturday night. The warmer lake waters may allow some of the stronger winds to mix down to the lake surface later tonight, and especially on Saturday and Saturday night.
At least for the daytime, there will be numerous breaks in the lower cloud cover. The lower ceilings overnight are more likely east of KEND-KLAW-KSPS, with lower confidence farther west. The big event will be Saturday afternoon and evening, as a cold front advances southeast across Oklahoma and north Texas.
1130 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 It will be another very mild day across the area in a strong southerly flow with high pressure to our east and an approaching trough to our west. By tonight an upper level trough over the western CONUS begins to nudge eastward, as a surface cold front slides into the western portions of our CWA. With clouds, showers, and cold air advection behind the front, it will be a cooler day with highs lower 60s west to around 70 east of I-29.
In the upper levels, an upper ridge sits along the AL Gulf Coast. Any moisture through tonight will be shallow aloft in the form of some scattered cirrus and associated with the progress eastward of the upper ridge center across the Gulf Coast.
First Significant Cold Front of the Fall Season Will Push Through Currently. Drier air rounding the base of high pressure centered to our north will lessen PoPs further today, with limited low-level moisture keeping chances for light showers confined mainly our southern zones. Not expecting any deep convection (thunder) today as a building ridge aloft leads to significant subsidence and drying aloft. Afternoon highs will be within a few degrees of their late October average, ranging from the low 80s along the immediate coast to the mid 80s across the interior. High pressure centered to the north will maintain a 5 to 6 mb gradient along the east coast of Florida, leading to brisk northeast-east winds 15-20 knots.
We're still expecting the more widespread activity to arrive on Saturday as a cold front moves across the area. A mid/upper trough and associated PAC front will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday afternoon.
Cold front has moved through the forecast area this morning, with gusty wind noted in its wake.
For the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota we can expect a deep southerly fetch of warmer and more humid air to stream into the area at the surface and aloft. Surface dewpoint temperatures should push into the lower 50s throughout the area. Starting Saturday morning, a swift moving cold front moves west to east through the region reaching northwestern Minnesota by early afternoon. Another area of rain is expected to move into eastern North Dakota towards Saturday afternoon as mid level moisture and elevated front lags behind the surface cold front. High temperatures Saturday will be closer to, but still above, normal lingering in the lower 60s.