Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY INTO FAR WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. WARMER MONDAY.
333 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INTO COASTAL CAROLINA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE RAP/HRRR MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEST SO HAVE RELIED ON THIS GUIDANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. A LEE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS TROUGH. BY 19/00Z THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
257 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO INVADE THE AREA.
357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015 Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation. Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
654 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.
The lower levels of the atmosphere is relatively dry with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 30s. Temperatures will warm up into the lower to middle 70s and southerly winds may gust up to 25 mph. A cold front will approach the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise the cold front moves through Monday morning with showers on the back end of this system especially across far southern Missouri through midday on Monday. There will be several weak impulse kinda pin wheeling around the main upper level low as it slowly moves across the southern U. A cold front will then approach the area starting late Sunday evening.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
255 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 259 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME MODELS. UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY BUT DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
655 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AB. WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN ID. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN MT AND FAR EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING EAST OF THE REGION NOW. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MUCH COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE WINNER AREA.
225 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
220 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.
AT THE SURFACE THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD FROM THE NRN GULF COAST. FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NWRN MEXICO. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY AS IT LIFTS NWD. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY OPENS AND TRACKS ENEWD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. QUICKER INLAND PUSH OF SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING THE LOWEST POPS TO THE COAST SOUTH OF CANAVERAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BUT IT WILL CAUSE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WED. WITH RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH SE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST MON THEN SOUTH ON TUE.
WPC KEEPS ALL THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WHICH ALSO EXPANDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RGV. TONIGHT'S APPROACH OF THE MUCH ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT OF THE ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.
119 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
335 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015 Wave of showers and embedded storms over the Plains this morning is associated with a 35-knot low-level jet and an elevated warm front around 850 hPa. Still expect another round of thunderstorms to develop later this evening as a cold front moves in from the north.
WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING OUT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER CRUISING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PLAINS SURFACE COLD FRONT TO HEAD EAST. WITH AID FROM THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BEFORE CLOUDS RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE RIDGES STAY CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S. SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE EAST WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS AT BAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AT ALL LEVELS AND PUSHES THE HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT'S BEEN IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH AND ADVECTS A LITTLE DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED CELLS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ISOLATED ECHOES ELSEWHERE.
153 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY GIVING WAY TO A MILDER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AIR THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING AREAS OVER THE MTNS MIGHT GET SOME RIDGETOP SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT COULD LINGER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT IN THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. ON MONDAY A LARGE BUT WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX WILL EXTEND NE OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 70S TO LOW 80 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT HIRES MODELS TRY TO EXTEND CONVECTION SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL BE OUR WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR AND HRRR-DEV INDICATE FESTERING CONVECTION ALONG THIS LINE SO HAVE HUNG ONTO THE POPS A BIT LONGER BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER. COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER IOWA MONDAY AND RETURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EJECTION OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING RETROGRADING UPPER LOW IS NOW SHOVING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE 1.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND WEST BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
WITH 19Z TEMPERATURES SITTING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THIS HEAT IS BEING PROVIDED BY A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS LINGERED NEARBY FOR SOME TIME NOW. THIS RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO BE SUPPRESSED FROM THE NORTH AS BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST MAKES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD. RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OUT WEST TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S OUT EAST. WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH MODESTLY IMPROVED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY /IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW DAYS/ BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HOW IT PLAYS OUT AS MODELS ARE NOW MORE QUICKLY RETROGRADING AND THEN AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FCST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER HIGH BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING WEST.
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MID WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH AXIS REACHING TO THE NORTHEAST. /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE ARKLATEX REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
153 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.
250 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SHIFT THIS WEEK TRANSITIONING FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST TO AN UPPER RIDGE.
Otherwise the same high pressure control of the surface and aloft means continued heat/humidity.
231 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TRUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
318 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENING OUT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN U. WITH THE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LINCOLN, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO RUSSELL, KANSAS AND SOUTH TO DODGE CITY.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky this afternoon along the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge. Otherwise high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to produce similar conditions to what we have had over the past several days through Monday night.
550 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY UNDER RIDGING AND WARMING ALOFT. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUBTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE 15Z XMR SOUNDING WHERE A LITTLE DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE N/NE DROPPING PW VALUES DOWN TO 1. PRESENCE OF TROUGH AT THE SFC COMBINED WITH A MORE DISTURBED FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON-TUE. WED LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WED LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE IN FROM THE EAST. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY AND BECOME MORE ROBUST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVER YESTERDAY.
131 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TRUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
The higher valleys like Butte and Georgetown Lake will have low temperatures below freezing.
AT THIS TIME TOMORROW THE LAST UNOFFICIAL DAY OF SUMMER/ DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL LIE BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE TO WASTE THE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH CAPE AND INSTABILITY KEEPING CONVECTION CHANCES NEAR ZERO.
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
1130 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS A GENERAL TROUGH ALONG THE WHOLE LEFT SIDE OF NOAM. WITH A TRANSITION TO RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES.
344 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 935 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER GA WHICH PUTS THE TN VALLEY IN AN UPPER NE FLOW WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS THE FLOW WAS EASTERLY.
ALSO WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS SINKS TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.
Will take a blend approach of the two and keep the highest pops across the central zones.
On Labor day the front is expected to lift northward in response to an upper level trough moving eastward into the Northern and Central Plains to near or just north of the Nebraska and Kansas border in the afternoon. Lows tonight remain mild in the low to mid 70s and highs on Labor Day will be dependent on cloud cover. Feel there may be enough sunshine to send temps back into the lower 90s for most areas.
Low chance of storms again tomorrow afternoon over the higher elevations that may drift toward TAF sites. Plains through midweek with an upper trough being carved out over the eastern ConUS by week/s end. This will result in the upper ridge which has been plaguing the southern U.
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT OVER THIS AREA MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION FIRING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS OF 20Z. DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13 TO 14KFT. IT WILL COOL INTO THE FIFTIES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS LOOKS AS IT MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS TO THE WEST SO FAR. THIS UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS WATERS. WHICH INDICATES (PERHAPS) THAT IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY EVENTUALLY COME TO THE AREA.
Think we will climb into the lower to middle 90s again today with heat index readings getting close to 100 degress in some spots during the afternoon hours given that afternoon dewpoints have been well into the 60s if not 70 degrees. Did get some showers and thunderstorms yesterday over central and southeast Missouri, though today we will lie more under the upper ridge axis which will supply a bit more subsidence.
1009 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND WEST BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
343 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 POTENT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR MARSHALL MN TO SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. HOLDING INTO THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT RUNNING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s for most of the area. The upper level trough that has been advertised the past several days will begin to slowly push an expected front towards the region late tonight and through the overnight hours. While the upper trough will begin to move a front into the region Monday, the upper level ridge will remain in control across the region for much of the day. This will allow for one last day of warm and humid conditions in advance of the cooler conditions. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s despite increasing cloud cover as the expected front moves towards the region.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO TILT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A RANCH OF THE JET STREAM BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS NOT OF A SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS WILL INCREASE FGEN ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND GRADUALLY FORCE IT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS TROUGH MAY CREATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE CIN ERODE. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM CONCERNS DOMINATED BY RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN.
A large upper low spins over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Overnight, the loss of instability will put an end to the showers and storms, though the upper low will remain overhead. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower 70s region-wide tonight.
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
626 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
A VERY BROAD TROUGH IS MEANDERING NEAR THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL ADJUST TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LABOR DAY UNDER A MORE DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE USHERED IN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
425 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO HOLD OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS REACHING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS DROPPING SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WAS SHIFTING EAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA.
240 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 High pressure ridge still dominating the weather through the overnight, although a cold front is approaching to nudge the benign weather out of the way. That same mid level moisture will translate into increased clouds, effectively trapping the WAA at the sfc and resulting in higher overnight lows in the NW in the lower 70s. only a few degrees cooler in the SE. A cold front draped across the Plains from north-central Minnesota to NW Kansas will slowly approach western IL over the next couple of days.
257 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER WEATHER TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHEAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK.
A BREEZY AND DRY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.