Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1120 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 UPDATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT.
The passage of the accompanying cold front and rain will make for much cooler day. The cold air advection will continue into Friday night pushing lows down into the lower and middle 30s. The winds and lingering cloud cover will likely preclude the development of frost but a few areas may touch the freezing mark Friday night.
620 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 Strong 994 mb low pressure center upper Michigan will weaken and move east today with dry westerly flow continuing over central IL.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS THE CANADIAN LOW WEAKENS AND ALSO BECOMES MORE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MERGES WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. A COLD FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SASKATCHEWAN AND ALSO MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. THUS A SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A THICK BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
The more interesting part of the forecast follows later this evening with a cold front turning winds north and gusty.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND WITH S/SW LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, EXCEPT ALONG BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS WHERE SEA BREEZE ONSET AROUND MIDDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD ENSURE ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TREND WARMER ON MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH THE GOOD MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER START THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AND BRING STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. BY THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WET BULB PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX IN. THE TREND IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM 18Z TO 00Z RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THINGS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING WEAKER/ELONGATED WITH TIME. RESIDUAL TROUGH AXIS TO THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATE. ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING GIVEN LACK OF INVERSION AND THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
SHOWING THE HIGHEST (LIKELY) OUT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-10 CORRIDOR AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
OF GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CYCLONIC FLOW AND A TROUGH LINGERING BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND EVEN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND H500 WINDS REVEALED THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT TODAY WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THIS ENERGY WILL CONGEAL INTO A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AS A REINFORCING TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A STAGNANT WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA TODAY.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS TO GET GOING LATER TODAY AS HEATING ERODES THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION NEAR AND ALONG THE BNDRY WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE/TIMING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD TROF ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AND THE AIRMASS WARMS.
Then, a band of showers and thunderstorms will lay out from west to east across the Tri-State region today ahead of a cold front. A cold front approaching from our northwest will lay out east to west as it stalls over or just north of our northernmost zones today.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MOVING AROUND THE BACK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE SOME VERY NARROW BANDS OF HIGHER QPF. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING WITH VORTS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SO JUST HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS STRADDLING THE WESTERN CONUS. TRANSITIONING INTO VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
1217 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 HYDRO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL AREAS REMAIN COOLER DUE TO THE COOLER WATER.
AND A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH OK AND N TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
1002 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS NORTH OF CROCKETT AND MADISONVILLE AT 9 AM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WERE HELPING TO PRODUCE SEA FOG OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS AND SURROUNDING LAND AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONSOLIDATED BAND OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED.
1221 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST AND MERGE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD ENSURE ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OLD COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A Canadian cold front has brought an increase in clouds and snow showers early this morning as indicated by radar and satellite, and is expected to continue into the day. Winds will become more north to northeasterly during this time frame, with some gusty winds possible at airfields as the cold front passes in the morning, especially for KGPI.
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
1018 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AND THIS AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST IA.
TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE NORTH WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
723 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 AVIATION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT.
The upper level trough that will usher in colder temperatures for the weekend will begin to arrive tonight, allowing a vorticity maximum to slide from northwest to southeast across the southern half of the CWA late tonight into Friday morning.
610 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/SNOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MARQUETTE MI OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING ELONGATED E/W CLOSED LOW ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM UPPER MI THROUGH NORTHERN MN/ND. CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WELL. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** A GENERAL COOLING TREND WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 42N AND 150W WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 32N AND 148W WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATER TODAY AND STREAM IT TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 MIGHT BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER DUE TO A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
A MEAN LAYER ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS FIELDS ARE THICKENING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS. THE WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE LOWER KEYS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL PERSIST FROM THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI/UP OF MI. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AROUND THE BASE TO AHEAD OF THE LOW. WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM MT/WY INTO WESTERN KS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 138W.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
1007 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST AND MERGE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY.
522 AM PDT THU MAR 17 2016 Chilly high pressure will build into the Inland Northwest today bringing mostly sunny skies and a chilly north wind.
Forecast soundings from the NAM and the GFS show very dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere that takes some time to overcome. So prior to 00Z tonight, the forecast is more of a compromise with the higher resolution, short-range models. Deep troughing should develop over the southwestern states which will enable persistent warm advection into the Central and Southern Plains.
143 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
353 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
636 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HAVE LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
325 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A MIDDLE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 200 AM OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOMEWHAT MOIST SOUNDING (IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS) ALSO ILLUSTRATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FROM THE SURFACE TO 925 MB BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND FRESHENING ABOVE THAT THRU 700 MB.
314 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND WILL PUSH A MAINLY DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY.
1256 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 921 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY DRY SFC AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
302 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015 UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
347 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL PLOT INDICATED A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. SATURDAY STARTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS WELL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS NEXT UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACNW COAST.
648 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
For Friday night, the upper level storm system and associated trough axis moves across by early morning with rain showers ending west to east.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AZ. WITH LARGE SCALE TROF COVERING MUCH OF THE ROCKIES REGION. WARMEST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WINDS ARE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY. 50S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
AND SATURDAY CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWER PART OF ATMOS GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESS RIDGE IN THE NEAR-TERM. UPPER LOW IN SW U.
ALSO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PULL LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHEAST IA AND MN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG AS WELL. THEN MAX T SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF WL RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE OF COLUMN MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE/850 TROUGH SHIFT EAST RATHER QUICK DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT SO PRECIP EXPECTED TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICK FROM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MID LVL HEIGHTS RISE TO 588 DMS AT H5 AS MID LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALOFT KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S EVEN WITH THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S VOLUSIA COAST TO HIGHS 85- 87 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF E CENTRAL FL. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT FROM THE MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GOMEX AS IT TRIES TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE BIT INITIALLY BUT WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE GOMEX LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Upper trough was located over the western states and will gradually move to the east into the ROckies tonight while ejecting energy northeastward out into the plains. Good isentropic lift ahead of the upper wave peaks in the evening and diminishes thereafter, with trough axis likely passing around midday Saturday. Differences in the trough's speed and cohesion of northern and southern branches remain for some uncertainty in how long precip lingers into Saturday and have kept a small mention into the afternoon in the east.
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S TUE-THU. COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NE NC WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 8 K FT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
651 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL LEAD TO A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN UTAH/AZ NOW TRACKING EWD. INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAIN DRY WITH 19Z OBS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SHOWING DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. 12Z WRF-NAM NOW CLOSING THIS TROUGH MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OR THE 12Z GFS AND ECM. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WHILE CONTINUING TO SHEAR OUT. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
532 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
339 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
111 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
555 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 40 DEGREES. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AMID ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU FOR MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH AND LAKE MOISTURE PLUME BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION RAMP UP OVERNIGHT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TEXAS EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
130 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
631 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
414 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ESE FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO NRN MX. BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO LARGE AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST.
323 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015 UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA TO THE MEXICAN BORDER WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
Our next weather maker is the upper low pushing across the Desert SW. 06Z surface analysis shows a cold front extending from just north and west of Valdosta to near Apalachicola.
350 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.