Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1142 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015 /06Z TAFS/ Showers and thunderstorms will spread northward across West Central Texas overnight with lift of warm air over a cold front. /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ Atmosphere will continue to saturate with lift over the cold front. With cooler air near the surface, isentropic upglide will also be a player tonight and tomorrow for continued shower and thunderstorm activity, especially for locations south of our Interstate 20 corridor.
1008 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TROUGH TO OUR EAST OVER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
1010 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AT 9 AM TEMPERATURES ON THE COLORADO NW PLATEAU HAD GENERALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.
1029 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Off to our west, moisture from TD Patricia will feed into a low pressure system in SE TX that has been causing heavy rain and flooding problems over there.
905 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
WITH RAIN LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER NRN AREAS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 61 72 60 / 20 20 40 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 58 68 56 / 20 40 40 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 59 65 55 / 40 50 60 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 56 67 52 / 10 60 60 50.
A DEEP 1004HPA REMNANT LOW FROM PACIFIC STORM PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE RAINFALL WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
900 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2015 FAIR AND WARMER TODAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AN ELONGATED AND LENGTHY RIDGE IS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY. AS THE TROF PASSES THIS MORNING.
and with upstream temps quite cool and with ample cloud cover feel that this afternoon will be cooler than previously thought. A cold front has moved through most terminals by 11Z with increasing NE winds in its wake. /issued 348 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/ Upper trough extending from NM down into Northern Mexico this morning will continue to slowly push east.
1201 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
946 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015 MORNING UPDATE WILL CENTER ON THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD BAND APPROACHING FORM THE NORTHWEST. WITH READINGS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS AND IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. KEPT OUR HIGHS WHICH MATCH THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM LOOKS TOO AMBITIOUS GIVEN THE INVERSION AND SHORTENING OCTOBER DAYLIGHT. SO LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS THAT FLIRT WITH FREEZING BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED.
1117 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL SITUATED OFF THE PACNW COAST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA BUT STILL MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT AS TODAY/S RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE NW COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 7500 FT.
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NW ENTERING SC WI. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO SRN WI LATER TONIGHT. STILL SOME WIND OFF THE DECK EXPECTED THOUGH EVOLVING LIGHTER WIND REGIME MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ESP IN SC WI CLOSER TO ARRIVING RIDGE AXIS. BUT WE STILL HAVE A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF COMING THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A TRAILING MOISTURE AXIS. THEN LOOK FOR GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND A MUCH COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT.
955 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. EVEN THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL READINGS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
650 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 As of 3 am this morning, a cold front was currently located near Anderson to Bolivar to near Osage Beach. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will continue to move into the Missouri Ozarks Sunday appears to be a nice day with some sunshine and some high clouds towards the south.
645 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 08z/3am surface analysis shows 1004mb low over western Wisconsin, with cold front extending southward through eastern Iowa into Missouri. Meanwhile behind the boundary, windy and much cooler conditions are noted across the Plains. Rain chances will come to an end from west to east this afternoon as front pushes into Indiana, followed by windy and cooler conditions. High temperatures will likely be achieved during the morning, ranging from the lower 60s in the Illinois River Valley to the middle 70s south of I-70. High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight into Sunday, providing quiet weather with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A cold front has moved through most terminals by 11Z with increasing NE winds in its wake. /issued 348 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/ Upper trough extending from NM down into Northern Mexico this morning will continue to slowly push east.
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
615 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 COOLER WEATHER HAS ARRIVED. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHERN STREAM UPPER=LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE IA/NEB BORDER THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MB. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LAGGED A BIT. TROUGH AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS AND INTO NORTHERN TX. AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL IA/NORTHEASTERN MO/EASTERN KS/CENTRAL OK. COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND THE 60S THIS WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
1017 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Cold front has moved through the majority of the forecast area with the exception of far southeast Oklahoma this morning.
729 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE EAST AND OFF CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. NEAR TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. AND MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. 75" OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS TO ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
750 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WITH STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING AIRMASS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN THE SPC HRRR IS DEVELOPING OVER 500 J/KG EAST OF A MOUNT PLEASANT TO SOUTH HAVEN LINE 18Z TO 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT.
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1133 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BONHAM TO DALLAS TO HAMILTON LINE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
1147 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HYDRO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WITH STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING AIRMASS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN THE SPC HRRR IS DEVELOPING OVER 500 J/KG EAST OF A MOUNT PLEASANT TO SOUTH HAVEN LINE 18Z TO 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT.
In the wake of the strong cold frontal passage, temperatures will slowly fall through the day, given strength of the low-level cold air advection with cloud cover. Adjusted the hourly temperature grids to account for the slow fall in temperatures, with the highs today occurring during the early part of this morning. It appears the heavy rain threat should continue to shift to the southeast today along with the cold frontal boundary. An upper trough moving across the area today will also enhance this lift. Areas of fog will continue to form this morning as the cooler air lowers the temperature to near the dewpoint temperature.
602 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Cold front is currently making its way through the forecast area, already seeing cooler temps and lower dewpoints west of the I-35 through I-49 corridors.
725 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 THE MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KSPS MAY HANG ON TO AN OVC040-050 FOR A LITTLE BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS ERODE COMPLETELY THERE TOO. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM NE OF SEMINOLE TO LAWTON AND FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO WRN N TX. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S/SE INTO NRN TX. INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED WARM FRONT OVER NRN TX. THE REMAINING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S/SE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INFLUENCE THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER TX INTO NRN MEXICO.
1258 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Cold front continuesd to push southeast through the area with VFR conditions prevailing from this afternoon through tonight. /issued / Cold front currently from far NW AR through south central OK and making slow progress southeastward.
1201 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
High pressure aloft is in control of our weather regime, and will continue to keep a tenuous hold over the next 24 hours. Southerly winds will keep the low levels mixed enough to keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Humid conditions will result in heat index values in the low to mid 90s. A cold front will remain lurking off to our northwest, extending from northwestern Missouri into south central Kansas. As this low slides to the northeast with time, the cold front will finally get a good kick to the southeast and sweep through the area from mid evening through the overnight hours.
632 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STILL SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPS GO DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY MORNING.
629 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN COOL ADVECTION IN THE POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. EARLY THIS MORNING A TROUGH CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. EAST OF THE TROUGH. WEST OF THE TROUGH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
1121 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 SURFACE TROF HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA. COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STILL SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPS GO DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER TROFFING WAS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING AND BRISK SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS CONTINUED TO SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT 2 AM SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW 100. OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. MODELS PICK UP ON A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN COAST OF BAJA CA. AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BEGINS TO TAP INTO AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SRN BAJA.
1119 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL DOMINATE OUR LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
ALTHOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY STILL UNDER THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING. LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT SHIFT IN RIDGE MAKING FLOW A TAD MORE NORTHEAST.
ENJOY ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY! CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 58 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0.
722 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL DOMINATE OUR LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHER TOTALS UP TO A TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL OREGON MOUNTAINS. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE REDUCED POPS CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY LOOKS TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
515 AM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT BRING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
728 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
Convection will be possible near the theta-e ridge, although chances remain small. The seemingly permanent subtropical ridge will continue the hot temps (5-10 degrees above normal) thru Friday.
EASTERLY FLOW FROM A INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS EAST ALABAMA TODAY. THE TROF WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THE FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA WILL BECOME NORTHEAST.
947 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN COOL ADVECTION IN THE POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. EARLY THIS MORNING A TROUGH CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. EAST OF THE TROUGH. WEST OF THE TROUGH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
525 AM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE PAC NW. MORNING WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL UPSTREAM ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTLINE. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST PVA OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FRI AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. H25 JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 90-100 KTS BY LATE AFTN WITH A COLD FROPA YIELDING EXCELLENT LLVL UPSLOPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING. GFS AND NAM BOTH NEARLY YIELD A CLOSED LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY FEATURE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IN SOME LOCALES WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE TROUGH WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MIDLANDS BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM BOISE TO TWIN ARE STILL ON TRACK AS UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH. THEN INCREASING AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH COMES IN FROM OREGON. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CENTER OF UPPER DYNAMICS SWINGS THROUGH SE OREGON TO THE ID/NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
1134 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
1151 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
749 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF. REGIONAL SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY SHOWERS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DIVED FURTHER SOUTH INTO GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
Regional 12Z surface analysis this morning shows high pressure over the Appalachians and weak, ill-defined low pressure just southwest of the Florida Keys. A weak upper level low is situated roughly over the tri-state border and can be seen clearly in the satellite imagery, with water vapor imagery showing higher water content south and east of the line from Apalachicola to Fitzgerald and notably drier air to its northwest. We expect another day of hit and miss showers with isolated lightning with the highest chances over land focused over the eastern Florida Big Bend and in south central Georgia.
1054 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET AND WARM INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
907 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
744 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER, AND OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK, AS DOES CURRENT TEMP FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY HAS BUILT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
709 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
702 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 The approaching cold front from the Plains will cause increasing southerly flow in the lower troposphere, raising moisture levels across the forecast area. South winds will become gusty today ahead of the cold front, with sustained speeds of 15-20 mph, and gusts into the mid to upper 20 mph range this afternoon. The front slows a bit tomorrow as it runs into mostly parallel flow out of the southwest, but starts to break down the ridge over the eastern half of the country.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP WARM ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS LOCATED OVER THE MOUNTAIN OF THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD MID LEVEL PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION) OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH. JUST TO THE EAST OF THAT AN UPPER RIDGE POKES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE AXIS MAIN EAST TO WEST AXIS OF NEAR 1025 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS ORIENTED FROM VIRGINIA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
1057 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE TROUGH WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MIDLANDS BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.
1101 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
724 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
1219 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES UNDER EASTWARD SLIDING HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWESTERN TROUGH.
1110 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
THE MORNING FOG IN THE EAST IS BURNING OFF FINALLY AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT THERE NOW. /ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ INCREASINGLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE FORECAST FOR FOG ALONG/S OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. /EC/ DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME GOOD THERMAL RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C AND SOME 925 TEMPS PUSHING TO 28C.
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
959 AM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE YET TO DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT BRING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.