Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mean-layer ridging centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is apparent on water vapor imagery as a weak anticyclonic spin. Two small mid to upper-level lows are east and west of this ridge. The 12Z RAOBS sampled falling mid to upper level heights over the Southeast US as the northern fringe of the ridge erodes and lower heights spill southeast across the Ohio River Valley. This configuration is generally agreed upon, with the previously mentioned upper low over Texas, a trough in the eastern US, and the melding of the northern Gulf ridge into the western North Atlantic subtropical ridge. The tail- end of the eastern US trough may erode as higher heights build east across the central US.
305 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Summary: A slow moving area of low pressure and cold front will cause showers tonight with some showers/thunderstorms in spots Sunday.
1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today through Sunday) This weekend, an inverted trough lingers from northeastern Mexico to over southern into central Texas, an upper level trough deepens east of the Rockies and an upper level ridge builds west of the Rockies. A surface to lower level ridge drifts off to the east today, then a cold front approaches our area late on Sunday.
605 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The main concern in the short term is a weak cold front which will move into the Big Country tomorrow afternoon with a few showers possible. A weak upper ridge remains over west Texas this afternoon, with warm and dry conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon and evening. A deepening trough over the eastern half of the US will shift the ridge westward with northwest flow aloft developing over the area on Sunday.
With the combination of subsidence under a building upper ridge, and offshore flow with a thermal trough along the coast, the entire forecast area is clear this afternoon.
624 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) A very welcomed, and very pleasant change in the pattern is expected over the course of the short-term, as a cold front begins to move through the area tomorrow night. Unfortunately, the region won't really feel the effects of this cold front until Sunday night, with above average temperatures expected until then. The welcomed swing in the temperatures will begin Sunday night, where lows look to fall into the low and upper-60s as cold air advection begins to filter into the region. This frontal passage looks to be relatively dry, with confidence not the highest that some showers and thunderstorms will develop along I-20 tomorrow afternoon.
659 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the entire Pacific Northwest region, expect mostly sunny skies, above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Southwest and North Central MT for the next several days.
Weak front will move across which will allow for slightly cooler highs on Sun. Temperatures are right around 80 F over the plains at this time with 50s and 60s F in the mountains, but even cooler along the divide. Models keep a significant upper ridge over the western United States and weak northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA. The low level wind fields and thickness grids show a weak cold front with upslope flow to move into the plains and foothills late this evening. As a result, Sunday's highs will be a tad cooler than today's and more around seasonal normals. An upper level ridge will dominate our weather through much of the upcoming week.
Upper level ridge building over the interior western US will continue to bring generally clear, dry, and warmer weather to our area.
828 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 High pressure will persist through the rest of the weekend.
With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the entire Pacific Northwest region, expect mostly sunny skies, above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Southwest and North Central MT for the next several days.
Presently, the region remains in northwest flow aloft and this will persist through the period as a west CONUS ridge amplifies. At the surface, a trough off to the east along with high pressure to the west is producing breezy winds at the surface. The pressure gradient will tighten during the morning Sunday as low pressure to the east deepens and high pressure from the west nudges into the Dakotas. High pressure nudging into the western Dakotas will limit winds there Sunday, however, gusty winds are expected in the eastern half of the forecast area.
914 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Upper level ridging aloft and a weak pressure gradient at the surface will maintain mostly clear skies and light winds through the night.
622 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) Based on current water vapor imagery, there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over the western Great Lakes Region into southern Ontario. Upstream is a is a ridge moving in on the coast of western CONUS. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s to the northwest and low 60s to the southeast. With slightly upsloping winds daytime highs on Sunday are looking to be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s for the northwest and upper 80s for the southeast combined Panhandles.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a ridge in the western U. Deep 500 mb troughing then sets into the ern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the west coast, another in the ern U. with a ridge across the Rockies 12z Wed. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu. As a low pressure system exits east tonight, expect conditions to progressively become worse at each of the TAF sites under lingering isolated showers, with KIWD hitting LIFR conditions (KSAW and KCMX have a chance to too, but not as confident).
403 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Updated synopsis With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the entire Pacific Northwest region, expect mostly sunny skies, above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Southwest and North Central MT for the next several days.
732 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Aviation/Marine Deep upper level trough will set up shop over the GrtLks Rgn the next several days and will combine with lake induced instability to produce frequent rain showers and perhaps even a few tstms.
Upper level ridge will continue to build in from the southeast today and tomorrow.
Overnight lows will range from the low 60s to low 70s. (Through Sunday) High pressure centered to the north early this afternoon, will then move more toward the northeast through Tonight. The high will be east of the region Sunday, as a cold front moves south toward the southeastern US. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s inland, to the lower 70s at the coast.
616 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 A cold front will push through central Illinois this evening, ushering in a much drier air mass. Despite cold frontal passage, Sunday temperatures could over- achieve forecast guidance as a rapidly drying PBL and some degree of compressional warming advects across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. We've strayed a little warmer than the NBM with highs in the mid 70s. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 50s amid cooler air advecting in from the north.
Patterson (Issued 348 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: Low pressure will slide through this evening into tonight, bringing another round of showers to southern Wisconsin. The showers could be confined to a relatively narrow swath, so there is some uncertainty with precip chances on the fringes of the higher chance swath.
With the ridge set in over the CWA, conditions will remain dry and warm through the short term.
637 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 This Evening through Sunday: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the dry air associated with an old fragment of high pressure pivoting off to our southeast along the eastern Gulf Coast, while an upper-level low pressure system spinning over South Texas wraps up better moisture toward the western and central Gulf Coast areas. 5+ PWAT values starting to move northward along the Mississippi River valley toward an approaching cold front, where additional moisture is pooled along along the boundary.
632 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Summary: A slow moving area of low pressure and cold front will cause showers tonight with some showers/thunderstorms in spots Sunday.
821 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight into Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Mid level moisture associated with an approaching warm front will continue to spread eastward across the upper Ohio Valley through tonight.
708 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Through Sunday) High pressure centered to the north early this afternoon, will then move more toward the northeast through Tonight. The high will be east of the region Sunday, as a cold front moves south toward the southeastern US. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s inland, to the lower 70s at the coast.
Currently - Weak surface through lower level troughing is in place across South Florida and the Keys. This trough is tucked in the southwestern periphery of a ridge aligned along the Gulf coast and off the southeast Atlantic coast. Short Term Update - Broad surface through lower level troughing will remain across the area through the overnight period and keep breezes light out of the northeast to east. Expect overnight lows broadly in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
728 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 A cold front will push through central Illinois this evening, ushering in a much drier air mass. Our evening sounding was quite parched, and is likely to remain dry in the low layers as the front passes. Despite cold frontal passage, Sunday temperatures could over- achieve forecast guidance as a rapidly drying PBL and some degree of compressional warming advects across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. We've strayed a little warmer than the NBM with highs in the mid 70s. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 50s amid cooler air advecting in from the north.
(Sunday night through Monday night) A weak cold front will traverse the area through Monday, but moisture return ahead of it looks minimal currently. Highs are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 90s on Monday. Overnight lows are expected to be cooler behind the front on Monday night, possibly reaching the upper 50s across the northern sections of the area.
1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The main concern in the short term is a weak cold front which will move into the Big Country tomorrow afternoon with a few showers possible. A weak upper ridge remains over west Texas this afternoon, with warm and dry conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon and evening. A deepening trough over the eastern half of the US will shift the ridge westward with northwest flow aloft developing over the area on Sunday.
Expect some cooler temps on Monday, with highs in the 70s.
454 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis is extending from the Atlantic back to the west just north of the Florida Peninsula, while Tropical Storm Ian remains well to the south of Florida in the central Caribbean Sea.
1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge is currently present over the area will continue to push away from the CWA as a trough digs down into the area. This will brings a cold front through the state Sunday, clearing out the rain and bringing in cooler and drier conditions. A warm front, currently present over the state will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the state for this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected to be above average for many on Sunday as we wait for the cold front to push through the state. Highs on Monday will feel cooler with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
With a ridge aloft, fairly dry conditions prevail with mostly sunny skies. A weak cold front pushed through the region very early this morning which will result in slightly cooler temperatures aloft. Expect cooler highs than yesterday with mid 70s for the plains/I-25 corridor and a touch cooler over the Palmer Divide around 70. The synoptic scale pattern through the middle of the week will feature an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountain region. For Monday, Temperatures will be warmer as 700mb temperatures climb to around +11c over Denver which is about a 2-4 degree C jump from Sunday's readings. Afternoon highs will be back into the lower to mid 80s across the plains.
A cold front moves in Sunday from the north, bringing colder air into the forecast area. An Upper level ridge will begin to build in across the southwest CONUS by Monday with an Upper level low across Canada into the northeast CONUS keeping us in northwest flow to start the week.
A broad upper-level trough, along with an attendant surface cold front, will sweep through the region tonight into the day Sunday. A fall-like pattern will set up across the region for Monday through the end of the week, with generally cooler than average temperatures, and dry conditions under partly to mostly clear skies.
234 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 A cold front will be making its way southeast across the PAH forecast area early today, moving south of our counties by around 15z. Cooler air will lag a little behind the front, so high temperatures should still make it into the upper 70s north to the lower to middle 80s south.
1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) Based on current water vapor imagery, there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over the western Great Lakes Region into southern Ontario. Upstream is a is a ridge moving in on the coast of western CONUS. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s to the northwest and low 60s to the southeast. With slightly upsloping winds daytime highs on Sunday are looking to be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s for the northwest and upper 80s for the southeast combined Panhandles.
A cold front will move into the area today, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. After that passes later this morning, a cold front will pass over the area this afternoon. Thereon, dry weather and cooler temperatures return Monday as a result. Aloft, there is a broad upper level trough with westerly flow. Given the shear values and steep lapse rates warmer than 6.
1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Today feels more like summer than fall, as temperatures are on target to top out in the lower to middle 90s across lower elevations, upper 80s in the mountains, and lower 100s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. The quiescent pattern will continue into tonight, with another clear, cool night ahead with lows in the lower to middle 60s for most. A change will arrive Sunday, as a trough translating across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes sends a cold front south through the region. While cooler, these temperatures will still be above normal for late September. Light easterly winds and post-frontal conditions will yield a slightly cooler night Sunday night, with lows ranging from the middle 50s to the middle 60s for most locations.
Stacked low pressure, centered just north of Lake Huron, will continue to drift very slowly east through the period with a series of disturbances rotating south on the western periphery of the low. Cold front was just edging into western Indiana as well with widely scattered showers/isolated storms well ahead of it. The main focus for precip will begin to shift somewhat NE as the next trough begins to dig in with chc to likely pops ramping back up towards the end of the period.
355 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
(Today and tonight) An amplified upper pattern remains in place today with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and a ridge axis over the Great Basin. The surface cold front continues its slow march southward early this morning, but only modestly cooler temperatures are expected today in its wake. Surface flow will intensify and veer to a more NE direction by mid-morning in response to building high pressure over the northern TX Panhandle.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a ridge in the western U. Deep 500 mb troughing then sets into the ern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the west coast, another in the ern U. with a ridge across the Rockies 12z Wed. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu. As a low pressure system exits east tonight, expect conditions to progressively become worse at each of the TAF sites under lingering isolated showers and abundant low-level moisture, with all sites falling to prevailing LIFR conditions and possibly VLIFR for a time as well.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the western United States. The axis of high pressure stretches from southern Nevada north through the Great Basin. This leaves Arizona on the eastern side of the ridge, resulting in a drying northerly flow. As the ridge amplifies into the Northern Rockies region tonight into Monday, a southerly flow develops and draws monsoon moisture back into Arizona. There is still some uncertainty in the timing of moisture returning, but a majority of the high resolution guidance supports the earlier return.
1030 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the entire Pacific Northwest region, expect mostly sunny skies, above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Southwest and North Central MT for the next several days.
An upper-level ridge over the Great Basin will be amplifying during the short-term, which will cause a northwesterly flow to occur over the Great Plains. This building ridge will generally keep the skies clear and precipitation a very slim possibility.
151 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Strong high amplitude upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will keep a northwest flow over the area the next couple days bringing us dry conditions and temperatures about 5 degrees above average. By midweek the ridge axis shifts overhead and temperatures peak into the low to mid 80s.
319 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 H5 analysis this morning had low pressure over the UP of Michigan. A trough extended south of this feature into the Ohio Valley. A ridge axis extended from Nevada, north northwest into northern British Columbia. At the surface overnight, high pressure was present over northeastern Wyoming and frontal boundary was located over central Kansas. The axis of this high pressure will be oriented from northwestern Kansas into northwestern Nebraska later this afternoon.
1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Summary: A slow moving area of low pressure and cold front will cause showers tonight with some showers/thunderstorms in spots Sunday. A trough of low pressure extended south through Manitoba into northwest Minnesota and through southeast Minnesota this afternoon along with a cold front. A West Coast ridge will build Sunday with an eastern CONUS/Canada trough deepening as well.
Weak front will move across which will allow for slightly cooler highs on Sun. Temperatures are right around 80 F over the plains at this time with 50s and 60s F in the mountains, but even cooler along the divide. Models keep a significant upper ridge over the western United States and weak northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA. The low level wind fields and thickness grids show a weak cold front with upslope flow to move into the plains and foothills late this evening. As a result, Sunday's highs will be a tad cooler than today's and more around seasonal normals. An upper level ridge will dominate our weather through much of the upcoming week. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s over most of the plains with some warming in the surface to 700 mb layer.
(Today and tonight) The 500mb trough across the eastern United States will bring a weak cold front into the northern portions of the CWA (the Big Country region) this morning into early this afternoon. Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into west-central Texas late tonight into early Monday morning. Temperatures will be above normal this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 90s across the region. Lows tonight will be near normal to slightly above normal with temperatures in the lower 60s north to middle to upper 60s south.
Deep layer shear has increased across the area with the approach of the upper level trough. Temperatures will be a little cooler today but still above average as highs in the 80s are expected. Cooler conditions will occur on Monday as highs in the upper 60s to the middle 70s occur.
343 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 In the wake of a cold front, high temperatures will only reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s today, with the warmest readings in south central Kansas.
1108 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Key message: 1) Cooler for Sunday. upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and an upper ridge over the Great Basin will allow for northwest flow to continue across Colorado through Sunday. A weak cold front will drop south across the Plains tonight, bringing northerly winds and cooler air into the region. Upper high over the western U.
(Now through Monday) Closed 500 mb low pressure centered over northeast Mexico and extended over the BRO CWFA today will fade tonight and be replaced by a developing deep longwave trough of low pressure over the Mississippi River Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. This trough will allow a weak cold front to approach Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the north on Monday.
A weak cold front is sliding south from Montana, east of the divide, with a wind shift to the north, and gusty in places. Northwest flow aloft will occur Sunday and Monday as an upper level ridge develops over the western U. At the surface, high pressure will occur bringing dry weather to the region. Wind speeds will be light Sunday and Monday at the lower elevations. Highs Monday will be a little warmer with mid 70s to lower 80s east of the divide, and mid 70s in the west.
(Today through Monday Night) Southeast Texas is still on track for one more very warm day today before the arrival of Monday's cold front. Winds will shift to the north late tonight through the day on Monday as a pre-frontal trough and the front itself move into the area. Monday night is when we begin to really feel the effects of the cold front as significantly lower dew points filter into the area from the north.
134 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Aviation Deep upper level trough will set up shop over the GrtLks Rgn the next several days and will combine with lake induced instability to produce frequent rain showers and perhaps even a few tstms.
1256 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
This will result in cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday compared to today's high temperatures. High confidence for the dry weather pattern to continue this period as upper level ridging dominates over the central plains.
Today: Windy conditions are expected as the surface pressure gradient strengthens between an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes and a strong high in the West. Highs will reach the low/mid 70s across the outlook area.
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Upper level ridging aloft and a weak pressure gradient at the surface will maintain mostly clear skies and light winds through the night. One more day of well above normal temperatures tomorrow before the ridge gives way to a cold front Monday. This cold front will reach E TX and CENLA late Sunday night, and be down to the coast Monday morning. Not seeing any rain with this cold front.
(Today) A few showers have popped up across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this morning in a zone of isentropic lift in advance of a cold front that currently extends from central Missouri into southern Kansas. The potential for isolated showers will persist into mid-morning as the cold front advances into the area. The cold front is forecast to make quick progress across the area today and is expected to be near the Red River by early afternoon.