Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1059 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 (Tonight through Thursday Night) Sfc ridging continues to build W into the region this evening, which has allowed for drier air to advect W into portions of Srn AR/N LA. Otherwise, the dry advection will result in cooler temps overnight than what has been observed in recent days, although quite a gradient will be observed from W to E given the advection of the drier air. These may diminish during the evening with the loss of heating, although additional VFR cigs may increase prior to daybreak Friday over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR ahead of a cold front.
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Sfc ridging continues to build W into the region this evening, which has allowed for drier air to advect W into portions of Srn AR/N LA. Otherwise, the dry advection will result in cooler temps overnight than what has been observed in recent days, although quite a gradient will be observed from W to E given the advection of the drier air.
- Fogleman Moderate to heavy snow continues in association within a TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft) over west-central Montana this afternoon on the north and northeast side of a slow-moving upper level closed low, with snow rates within this area up to 3 inches per hour, resulting in dangerous near-whiteout conditions. The TROWAL weakens this evening and the upper low moves slowly east, resulting in slowly improving conditions from west to east and from north to south, with north- and west- facing terrain areas the last to improve late tonight or Thursday morning. The upper level low responsible for snow will shift towards the central CONUS to close out the week.
(Today) The Tennessee Valley sits underneath an upper level ridge with a tropical system to our southeast and a deepening trough over the Rockies.
Bands of showers have developed mainly south of the Lower Keys and are moving to the south- southeast. Given their proximity to the Lower Keys, have bumped the time for mentions of VCSH at EYW.
Quiet weather will continue overnight with high pressure in control of the region. With drier air in place, temperatures in the morning should be a little cooler than recent overnight lows. /28/ Tonight and Thursday: High pressure both aloft and at the surface remain in control of the weather across the region through Thursday. With cirrus clouds lifting northwest across the forecast area, lows tonight will be cooler as they range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
1047 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 (The rest of tonight) Moist, southerly low level flow will continue across the area tonight ahead of the approaching cold front that is currently located from southeastern Colorado through northeastern Nebraska.
317 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 High pressure pushes east today out into the Atlantic.
(Today through Friday) Surface and upper ridge are lined up over Middle Tennessee this morning and we've one more day of unseasonably warm temperatures to enjoy before plunging into a deep freeze. So we'll actually see some tropical impacts before a cold front approaching from the west begins affecting our weather. (Friday Night through next Thursday) The aforementioned cold front more or less blends into Nicole's remnants so that we'll begin to experience some cold advection by Friday evening as the tropical system starts to pull off to our northeast.
204 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 - Strong cold front will sweep through the region today. It's presence has continued to influence a blocking pattern over the eastern U. With it's advancement this morning, this synoptic block will continue to break down, with the flattening of the ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the door is open for the stout western trough to continue its trek east across the northern Rockies this morning. Through 4 to 5 AM, we'll likely see a churn of the short wave running the base of the trough, lifting east-northeast across Nebraska into the Dakotas. Still, with decent deep layer shear, 30 to 40 kts, a few strong updrafts cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, but any will struggle given warmer temperatures aloft.
153 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Dry conditions will continue today as high pressure remains in control. Heavy rainfall is possible Friday as tropical moisture from Nicole interacts with an approaching cold front. Strong upper high over the Middle Atlantic States continues to keep mild and dry airmass over Upper Ohio Valley. Surface 1035 mb high over southern New England has a sharp ridge that extends back along the east slope of Appalachians. Still expecting to see valley/ridge/urban temperature differences and quite significant as well with 10 to 15 degree differences by dawn. As well southerly flow will usher in some warmer temperatures through the day with highs into the upper 60s to near 70 expected. For Thursday night, subtropical storm Nicole will begin to bring moisture into the Ohio Valley, coincident with a Great Lakes low pressure's cold front.
926 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Hurricane Nicole is approaching the FL peninsula this evening as a deep trough inches eastward across the Rockies. Meanwhile, broad southwesterly flow aloft downstream of this trough will cause Nicole to turn to the north and weaken as it traverses GA and the Carolinas. A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South on Friday, ushering in much colder air.
348 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 One last warm day with highs in the low 70s.
Current surface analysis (19z) reveals broad high pressure expanding from the northeastern U. Skies will stay mostly clear into the overnight hours, and with dry air and light winds in place, expect another night of temperatures dropping into the 40s, with the sheltered valleys and the typically cooler spots hitting the 30s. Slightly cooler 900-800mb temperatures combined with increasing clouds to slightly inhibit solar insolation will lead to high temps being a tad cooler Thursday, as highs top out in the low 70s for most spots. An upper trough will help drive Nicole up the Appalachians, though tropical moisture on the western periphery of the system looks to be drawn into eastern and central KY. Most confident part of the forecast remains the major cool down expected by the weekend as the upper level trough and associated sfc cold front passes through.
1111 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Quiet weather will continue overnight with high pressure in control of the region. With drier air in place, temperatures in the morning should be a little cooler than recent overnight lows. /28/ Tonight and Thursday: High pressure both aloft and at the surface remain in control of the weather across the region through Thursday. With cirrus clouds lifting northwest across the forecast area, lows tonight will be cooler as they range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
151 AM MST Thu Nov 10 2022 The low continues its slow trek east across the area, with the associated strong upper-level jet now pushing into the Dakotas. Temperatures will get up to the the upper 20s, and maybe approaching freezing.
Wraparound precipitation associated with the low pressure system to our north will move to our east later this evening. Afternoon temperatures will remain slightly above freezing in the Lower Snake River Plain and Magic Valley, so we expect mainly a rain-snow mix with evening precipitation. As this low exits the region, upper level northerly flow will bring dry conditions and temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal through Friday night.
(Today and tonight) Theta-e advection ahead of an eastward-propagating mid-level trough will overspread western Oklahoma this morning. A few showers are possible along and ahead of a Pacific cold front as it moves into northwestern Oklahoma shortly after sunrise. A much cooler airmass will follow behind the aforementioned Pacific front. Lows tonight will get below freezing across northern Oklahoma, and into the low to mid 30s for most locations elsewhere.
518 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today) Today will be another warm and breezy day, but a cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon, with sharply falling temperatures in its wake. A few showers may develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but the better rain chances will hold off until late afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through.
(Today through Friday) Early this morning, upper troughing was located over the Rockies with ridging over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the New England coast, but extended southwestward through the Ohio River Valley toward Texas. A much cooler morning this morning, with temperatures away from direct marine influences generally in the 50s. As Nicole gradually turns northward over the next 24 to 36 hours, we'll lose the high cloud cover from west to east. The trend of warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Friday, generally favoring the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures.
401 AM PST Thu Nov 10 2022 Dry and a little warmer through Friday with locally gusty northeast winds to 35 mph near the coastal slopes of the mountains.
345 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Another quiet day across the region is on tap as the lower and mid- levels are infiltrated by drier air, with PWATS remaining less than an inch this morning. Deep layer ridging will begin to break down as Hurricane Nicole tracks northwestward, bringing moisture into east Mississippi. With increasing cloud cover and lower dewpoints, it will be and feel slightly cooler today, with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Albion, 36 miles northwest, is 30 degrees cooler with breezy northwesterly winds.
542 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today and tonight) Theta-e advection ahead of an eastward-propagating mid-level trough will overspread western Oklahoma this morning. A few showers are possible along and ahead of a Pacific cold front as it moves into northwestern Oklahoma shortly after sunrise. A much cooler airmass will follow behind the aforementioned Pacific front. Lows tonight will get below freezing across northern Oklahoma, and into the low to mid 30s for most locations elsewhere.
508 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today) The Tennessee Valley sits underneath an upper level ridge with a tropical system to our southeast and a deepening trough over the Rockies.
Frost and freezing temperatures return for inland areas tonight into Friday morning.
511 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today through Friday) Surface and upper ridge are lined up over Middle Tennessee this morning and we've one more day of unseasonably warm temperatures to enjoy before plunging into a deep freeze. So we'll actually see some tropical impacts before a cold front approaching from the west begins affecting our weather. (Friday Night through next Thursday) The aforementioned cold front more or less blends into Nicole's remnants so that we'll begin to experience some cold advection by Friday evening as the tropical system starts to pull off to our northeast.
419 AM MST Thu Nov 10 2022 Current water vapor imagery shows the base of the low pressure passing over the forecast area. The higher peaks from Vail Pass along the Divide up to Wyoming could see snow showers this afternoon as a couple small vort maxes wrap around the backside of the low pressure. Tonight will be relatively cold with single digits across the higher valleys with teens to 20s across the lower valleys. EC has latched on to the coldest solution for temperatures, while the GFS is slightly warmer.
632 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 One last warm day with highs in the low 70s.
High resolution models show the highest concentration of showers on the east side of Flathead Lake, watch for sudden visibility reductions and changeable road conditions.
Upper-level ridging will be the main weather influence for the next several days.
Current water vapor imagery shows the base of the low pressure passing over the forecast area. The higher peaks from Vail Pass along the Divide up to Wyoming could see snow showers this afternoon as a couple small vort maxes wrap around the backside of the low pressure. Tonight will be relatively cold with single digits across the higher valleys with teens to 20s across the lower valleys. EC has latched on to the coldest solution for temperatures, while the GFS is slightly warmer.
Dry weather and a little milder daytime temperatures are expected today and Friday with ridging moving overhead.
(Today) Today will be another warm and breezy day, but a cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon, with sharply falling temperatures in its wake. A few showers may develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but the better rain chances will hold off until late afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through.
Meanwhile, a brief mountain wave is expected to form this morning as a stable layer develops just above ridgetop. Cross-barrier flow is near 30-40kt along with significant subsidence from the departing trough. For Friday, upper level trof axis will be over Eastern Colorado in the morning and then moving out into the central plains during the day. Moisture will be on the decrease with just a shallow layer of moisture remaining in the mountains with a light northwest flow regime and perhaps a flurry over the highest elevations early on Friday.
The exception for the overnight will be in freezing or ice fog forming in the valleys.
547 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Dry conditions will continue today as high pressure remains in control. Heavy rainfall is possible Friday as tropical moisture from Nicole interacts with an approaching cold front. Strong upper high over the Middle Atlantic States continues to keep mild and dry airmass over Upper Ohio Valley. Surface 1035 mb high over southern New England has a sharp ridge that extends back along the east slope of Appalachians. Still expecting to see valley/ridge/urban temperature differences and quite significant as well with 10 to 15 degree differences by dawn. As well southerly flow will usher in some warmer temperatures through the day with highs into the upper 60s to near 70 expected. For Thursday night, subtropical storm Nicole will begin to bring moisture into the Ohio Valley, coincident with a Great Lakes low pressure's cold front.
517 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 - Strong cold front will sweep through the region today. It's presence has continued to influence a blocking pattern over the eastern U. With it's advancement this morning, this synoptic block will continue to break down, with the flattening of the ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the door is open for the stout western trough to continue its trek east across the northern Rockies this morning. Through 4 to 5 AM, we'll likely see a churn of the short wave running the base of the trough, lifting east-northeast across Nebraska into the Dakotas. Still, with decent deep layer shear, 30 to 40 kts, a few strong updrafts cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, but any will struggle given warmer temperatures aloft.
528 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today through Friday) Early this morning, upper troughing was located over the Rockies with ridging over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the New England coast, but extended southwestward through the Ohio River Valley toward Texas. A much cooler morning this morning, with temperatures away from direct marine influences generally in the 50s. As Nicole gradually turns northward over the next 24 to 36 hours, we'll lose the high cloud cover from west to east. The trend of warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Friday, generally favoring the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 748 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 High pressure brings dry weather today.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
133 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Rain Friday morning and overnight will be followed by mostly dry conditions and cooler temperatures this weekend. Southerly flow will increase moisture and result in daytime highs in some warmer temperatures through the day with highs into the upper 60s to near 70 expected. Overnight, moisture associated with subtropical will quickly move into the Ohio Valley, coincident with a Great Lakes low pressure's cold front.
Temperatures are expected to stay in the 70s for most of today, though it could reach the low 80s from Brevard to Martin Counties if the cloud cover can break at some point this afternoon.
141 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Rain Friday morning and overnight will be followed by mostly dry conditions and cooler temperatures this weekend. Southerly flow will increase moisture and result in daytime highs in some warmer temperatures through the day with highs into the upper 60s to near 70 expected. Overnight, moisture associated with subtropical will quickly move into the Ohio Valley, coincident with a Great Lakes low pressure's cold front.
936 AM PST Thu Nov 10 2022 Dry and a little warmer through Friday with locally gusty northeast winds in the mountain passes and canyons.
High temperatures this afternoon should warm into the mid 70s despite an increase in clouds, nearly 10 degrees warmer than normal highs in the mid 60s.
(The rest of today ) Strong cold front through NW OK is on track to move into NE OK by early afternoon and through western AR overnight.
1136 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today through Friday) Early this morning, upper troughing was located over the Rockies with ridging over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the New England coast, but extended southwestward through the Ohio River Valley toward Texas. A much cooler morning this morning, with temperatures away from direct marine influences generally in the 50s. As Nicole gradually turns northward over the next 24 to 36 hours, we'll lose the high cloud cover from west to east. The trend of warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Friday, generally favoring the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures.
First is ahead of an approaching cold front. RAP MUCAPES 500-750 J/kg as sfc dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. The low level jet reasserts itself and will work on this thin band of instability/higher moisture to spark showers and a few storms. Second focus is the cold front which is progged to slide west-east across the forecast area this afternoon. although the low level wind field will be moving showers/storms along at 50 mph (or so), and any pcpn load could/would be sufficient to get at least some stronger wind gusts to the sfc. GEFS and EC ensembles both have 75% of their memberships with highs (mostly) in the lower 30s through the end of the new work week. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a sharp wind directional shift later this afternoon.
(This evening through Friday) The last afternoon of warm temperatures is upon us before colder conditions take hold this weekend! The big story for tonight will be the strong cold front as it pushes southward through Texas. As a result, temperatures will remain nearly steady through the day, meaning the forecast highs will occur in the early morning hours, with the low temperatures in the late evening.
1143 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 - Strong cold front will sweep through the region today. It's presence has continued to influence a blocking pattern over the eastern U. With it's advancement this morning, this synoptic block will continue to break down, with the flattening of the ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the door is open for the stout western trough to continue its trek east across the northern Rockies this morning. Through 4 to 5 AM, we'll likely see a churn of the short wave running the base of the trough, lifting east-northeast across Nebraska into the Dakotas. Still, with decent deep layer shear, 30 to 40 kts, a few strong updrafts cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, but any will struggle given warmer temperatures aloft.
It will be a cold night across the area with lows dropping into the single digits above to single digits below zero, teens in the foothills where downsloping winds will keep temperatures a little warmer.
The high from Saskatchewan has started its southward descent and is now starting to block snow from reaching western Phillips county.
1145 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 days: * A strong cold front blasting southeast today, with showers/thunderstorms in its vicinity, and sharply falling temperatures and gusty northwest winds in its wake.
As the upper low pivots northeast, heaviest snowfall rates will shift from the south central on northeast towards the Devil's Lake Basin. Heavy snow will taper off from west to east in the late afternoon through the evening as the low moves out. Cold high pressure quickly builds in tonight. The dry air and subsidence promote drying to the lower levels, but forecast soundings generally keep a saturated layer near the surface overnight. If skies clear in the west, low temperatures around or even below 10 below zero are likely, however with continued cloud cover lows should remain "warmer", closer to zero but possibly still in the single digits below. Warmer temperatures of 5 to 15 above are expected east with lingering clouds, light snow, and breezy conditions.
As the day progresses, the lower tropospheric flow will become more southwesterly and confluent, losing some of the cyclonic curvature.
In terms of total precipitation, expect the highest amounts along the Plateau where 1 to 2 inches will be possible.
1125 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Today and tonight) Theta-e advection ahead of an eastward-propagating mid-level trough will overspread western Oklahoma this morning. A few showers are possible along and ahead of a Pacific cold front as it moves into northwestern Oklahoma shortly after sunrise. A much cooler airmass will follow behind the aforementioned Pacific front. Lows tonight will get below freezing across northern Oklahoma, and into the low to mid 30s for most locations elsewhere.
1225 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 One last warm day with highs in the low 70s.
-A strong cold front will move through the area this morning bringing a chance for showers and storms, with falling temperatures through the afternoon.
1125 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (The rest of today ) Strong cold front through NW OK is on track to move into NE OK by early afternoon and through western AR overnight.
Weak high pressure shifts over the area allowing for light winds and ideal radiational cooling tonight. With ample low-level moisture from recent snowfall, it seems like an ideal setup for fog/low stratus and with temperatures in the single digits and teens in the valleys, have continued mention of freezing fog for the overnight hours. Lows in the high country will drop below zero tonight.
(This evening through Friday) A cold front continues to make steady progress across portions of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma at this hour (currently progged from Muleshoe to Hollis, OK). Portions of the West Texas Rolling Plains may not observe frontal passage until near/just after sunset, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the low-80s. Areas along and west of the I-27 corridor may fall below freezing (upper-20s/low-30s) owing to slightly clearer skies.
Most areas will be a tad warmer, but areas over the west should see their coldest night of the two due to clear skies. Also looks to be a decent surface inversion where mountains/higher elevations should be warmer than the lower elevations.
222 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 The well-advertised strong cold front was moving in our NW CWA early this afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures were in the 70s and just behind the front readings were in the low to mid 40s! Scattered showers developed out ahead of the front with a thin line of stronger showers and a few thunderstorms aligned with the front. As SPC noted in an MCD, some intensification is expected in the low- topped squall line with the front, with isolated damaging wind gusts the main threat with the possibility of a brief tornado. Tonight, the strong cold front will move through the remainder of the cwa with a wintry airmass arriving on blustery northwest winds. Friday, it will be cold and blustery with sunshine returning as high pressure builds into the area.