Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The combination of intense dry-bulbing via downward momentum transport of the low-level jet and vertical mixing into the mid-levels will result in critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for the South Plains and southwestern Texas Panhandle. Winds behind the dryline will remain out of the southwest as a lee cyclone gradually deepens across southeastern Colorado, with sustained winds at around 20-25 mph and localized gusts to 35 mph. Conditions will remain breezy overnight as the aforementioned cyclone remains centered over the west-central Great Plains, with lows only reaching the upper 50s/lower 60s owing to the presence of strong, poleward theta-e advection.
Last band of steady rain spinning out of upper level low off the Oregon coast moving through the area overnight. Upper level low continuing to move southeast Sunday with weak upper level trough and somewhat unstable air mass over Western Washington.
202 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure will move off the middle Atlantic coast this morning.
Latest short term guidance continues to suggest the nose of the low level jet, and therefore the heaviest precip, will be more into SD. Anything that does develop in the area should push off to the east by 9 AM or so as the low level jet dies down and the main PV advection advances northeastward into northern IA and MN.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the Atlantic well to the east of Bermuda, with a cold front extending from the Carolinas across Georgia and the Florida panhandle then westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. For today, the weakening cold front will slide southward across the Gulf, bringing our low level flow around to WSW. Model soundings show a favorable wind pattern and adequate low level moisture for a reverse cloud line to develop along the Lower Keys during the late morning to early afternoon hours, although dry air aloft will limit any shower development, and may well prevent it entirely.
Overall forecast is pretty much on track with some showers through the evening and then decreasing overnight only to increase again on Sunday as the upper level trough off the coast moves inland.
with VCSH after 10Z and cigs lowering to MVFR for remaining terminals after 14Z as cold front sweeps southward down peninsula and across terminals.
Expect to see weak ridging moving off to the east today, which will result in more shower activity developing across the area by this afternoon, as Pacific trough continues to shift eastward.
253 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 At 2 AM, high pressure was producing mainly clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will move slowly through the region through tonight. The highest precipitation chances will be found along and north of Interstate 94. In addition, the dry dew points could potentially even cause some light freezing drizzle there too.
With ample sunshine, afternoon temperatures will top off in the low to mid 70s area-wide, with the warmest readings over southeast Kansas and western Missouri.
An upper trough axis continues to shift east across the Appalachians this morning with a trailing surface cold front sliding through the TN Valley.
For at least the next three days, expect dry and warming conditions as a ridge shifts across the Mississippi River Valley.
1032 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low clouds and fog have scattered out early this afternoon with sunshine allowing for a warmer afternoon than yesterday as highs push into the 50s. Water vapor imagery shows a compact wave pushing through central Wyoming this afternoon, flattening the upper level ridge. Warm air advection and upper ridging will result in a warmer day Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s; cooler in the Black Hills and far NW South Dakota along the northern periphery of the baroclinic zone.
1238 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Rain will continue to exit the southeastern half of the forecast area this evening from northwest to southeast as the axis of an upper-level trough responsible for precip shifts east of the region and mid-level heights begin to rise.
Morning lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s warm into the mid/upper 80s for afternoon highs.
Winds have shifted to the northwest in wake of this system and its associated cold front -- with wrap around moisture helping to keep broken decks of low stratus in place. The cloud cover and northerly flow will temper heating somewhat, but a mostly sunny sky late in the day should allow highs to make it into the lower 70s in most locations by the afternoon. A period of warm, dry weather will develop early this week as the aforementioned ridge axis moves directly over the Tennessee Valley.
Window of favorable radiational cooling early tonight as a veering low level anticyclonic flow eases in magnitude with high pressure anchored to the north and skies remain clear.
250 AM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A broad ridge of high pressure aloft will be over the forecast area through tonight. Residual showers in the high country at this time should diminish by 6 am.
1122 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A warm front will lift across northern NE into the Dakotas tonight as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge. On Sunday, a thermal ridge will build into the region with h85 temperatures climbing to 16-21C by late afternoon.
341 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure moving east through the Great Lakes will extend an axis of the high pressure south into the Ohio Valley as it crosses the region today.
Widespread light to moderate showers are forecast for the entire region late tonight and Sunday as a late season cold front moves through. This front will also keep temperatures cooler than normal.
Otw, winds are now northwesterly across the area with cooler air working in. CIGs will improve to VFR after 18z-21z as an upper level trough moves east.
A trough will strengthen along the West Coast Sunday which will result in increasingly strong southwesterly flow across western Utah valleys.
104 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: All sites are VFR tonight and this will continue over TAF sites through the period, as strong high pressure prevails over the region. This likely due to the veering of the low level winds and decreasing moisture. Some cold air stratocumulus will spread across the area late this afternoon and evening, but the rapid eastward movement of the cold core followed by ridging from the west will help the low level thermal trough shift east and the clouds to move out prior to dawn Sunday.
The surface cold front is located along the Cumberland Plateau, with the midlevel trough axis over the area. Through the next few hours, lingering showers will end and a NW flow will build in behind the front/trough. Mostly VFR through this taf cycle, however starting off at MVFR and possibly IFR as shra and associated llv moisture prevail along/behind a cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 47 80 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 45 78 54 82 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 45 78 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 40 75 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 0.
In the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning, skies will become mostly sunny today with dry weather.
This is because the gradient has weakened across the region, as high pressure centered near Bermuda shifts east and a low pressure system that was over the north Gulf coast, treks northeast across the southeast U. We remain on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, which along with dry low levels, will keep rain chances near nil.
1058 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 (This evening through Sunday) A subtle wave embedded within the upper ridge will move across the central plains resulting in some high clouds for northern Oklahoma tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will be much warmer with highs in the 70s (central/eastern OK) and 80s (western OK/TX).
1229 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Upper-level ridge to maintain VFR conditions across the region through the terminal forecast period ending 26/06Z.
Some dense fog may be encountered in the low lying areas of across south-central and southeast Oklahoma. The return flow and ridging aloft will allow for much warmer temperatures and also an increase in low level moisture. With veered lower level flow across the high plains, a dryline is expected to sharpen across the eastern OK/TX panhandles, which will be important with regards to fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma.
203 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region on Sunday with dry conditions and a warming trend through the middle of the week. Rain chances increase late in the week as a low pressure system crosses the area. Surface warm front has shifted into the northern forecast area, close to the NC/SC state line. Storms from central GA will shift into this area over the next few hours with steepening mid-level lapse rates courtesy of a 500mb trough pushing eastward. Low pressure will be off the mid Atlantic Coast Sunday morning and continuing to track away from the area. This will allow high pressure along with drier air and northwest winds to build into the region with clearing skies through early afternoon.
1052 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 20 UTC Water Vapor Imagery indicated short wave ridging in place across the area with short wave trough moving across southern Idaho and towards the region. Confidence is high that temperatures will climb into the low 80s with afternoon RH values falling to 10-15 percent. The forecast period starts out with the Central High Plains under southwest flow aloft as a ridge sits over Minnesota and Wisconsin. A lee trough will be in place over southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.
/issued 955 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/ Regional 00z soundings show a drying airmass behind the departing cool front and mid/upper-level trof axis taking shape across the area which is corroborated by clearing skies. The dry airmass and clearing skies should also allow temps to drop to significantly cooler mins than what we saw this morning although with winds staying up a few mph should keep them from dipping all the way to saturation. could pick up briefly out of the ne/e tomorrow morning before settling again with high pressure building over the area.
A period of warm, dry weather will develop early this week as the aforementioned ridge axis moves directly over the Tennessee Valley.
Expect clear skies tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s.
504 AM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A broad upper level ridge dominated the western half of the CONUS, with a Pacific upper level low and trough just offshore the West Coast. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to around 50. The large scale ridge will become amplified over the Great Plains and MS Valley tonight and Monday as the upper low and trough move slowly east into the Great Basin. The west-southwest flow aloft will become more southwesterly and increase, resulting in warmer temperatures and stronger winds. A potent Pacific cold front will approach southeast WY by midday Monday, and move through the CWA during the afternoon and evening. A mix of rain and snow is forecast for the valleys west of the Laramie Range, with snow over the higher terrain.
Some good news for tonight is that the lows will be mild.
Warmer and windy on Monday. Highs in the lower 80s F.
High pressure has settled and temps have cooled along with a very stable environment.
Unsettled weather will continue today and tonight as a cold low pressure system moves across the region.
1021 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure will continue off the middle Atlantic coast this morning. Mild, Pacific high pressure will follow and build across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday night. Mid-level trough and associated cold front has pushed through central NC. North-northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts between 20 and 25 mph will decrease this evening with surface pressure gradient weakening and high pressure settling in for the overnight period. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side in the lower to middle 40's.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 47 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 45 78 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 45 78 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 40 76 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 0.
Temperatures will once again be warm across east central Florida today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, with the higher of those temperatures occurring across the Treasure Coast.
resulting in even warmer conditions by Mon afternoon.
1001 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure moving east through the Great Lakes will extend an axis of the high pressure south into the Ohio Valley as it crosses the region today. As the high stalls along the OH/PA border Monday, return southerly flow will pull in warmer air to the region as a ridge builds in the upper levels west of the region.
Latest short term guidance continues to suggest the nose of the low level jet, and therefore the heaviest precip, will be more into SD. Anything that does develop in the area should push off to the east by 9 AM or so as the low level jet dies down and the main PV advection advances northeastward into northern IA and MN. While most raw output is a few degrees cooler than that, temperatures have a tendency to overachieve on days like this, so continuing the trend of going a little bit above guidance. However, the lowest RH values (western forecast area) generally look like they will not overlap with the strongest winds (eastern forecast area). That warmth will be short-lived, as the aforementioned large scale trough advances eastward through mid-week.
659 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure moving east through the Great Lakes will extend an axis of the high pressure south into the Ohio Valley as it crosses the region today. As the high stalls along the OH/PA border Monday, return southerly flow will pull in warmer air to the region as a ridge builds in the upper levels west of the region.
315 AM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A broad upper level ridge dominated the western half of the CONUS, with a Pacific upper level low and trough just offshore the West Coast. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to around 50. The large scale ridge will become amplified over the Great Plains and MS Valley tonight and Monday as the upper low and trough move slowly east into the Great Basin. The west-southwest flow aloft will become more southwesterly and increase, resulting in warmer temperatures and stronger winds. A potent Pacific cold front will approach southeast WY by midday Monday, and move through the CWA during the afternoon and evening. A mix of rain and snow is forecast for the valleys west of the Laramie Range, with snow over the higher terrain.
A notable area of instability will move near the area with this low, introducing the chance for some thunderstorms, although not expected to be severe. Long range pattern favors western US ridge nosing northeast into the Northern Plains by the end of the week, with troughing further south and east. Rising heights aloft and shifting storm track will tend to favor dry conditions, however weak cold fronts may still pass into our CWA due to clippers rounding the base of the trough in Canada.
1017 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure will continue to shift offshore today as high pressure over the Great Lakes tracks eastward through Monday. As a result, a weak cold front will push south across the region tonight; stalling across central and southern Virginia.
639 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 [Through 12Z Monday] The cold front has moved southeast of the terminals. In the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning, skies will become mostly sunny today with dry weather.
Cloudy and cooler today with valley rains over much of northern NV by the early afternoon hours.
614 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals as high pressure remains predominant across the region. Otherwise, winds today to become southeast at 5 to 10 knots with the higher values near TYR. /Today through Monday/ Upper-level ridge to prevail through tonight, maintaining mostly clear skies and dry conditions areawide. Upper-ridge forecast to shift east on Monday allowing for southwest flow to advect moisture northeast across the region, resulting in increased cloudcover areawide.
The cold front has now moved through the area, with northwesterly breezy winds at all ob sites and dewpoints in the upper 40s north to mid 50s extreme southeast. This combined with low level cool advection, afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Clear and dry conditions continue through Monday as ridging remains over the region.
635 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 At 2 AM, high pressure was producing mainly clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will move slowly through the region through tonight. The highest precipitation chances will be found along and north of Interstate 94. In addition, the dry dew points could potentially even cause some light freezing drizzle there too. Low temperatures on Monday morning will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
More robust lift is expected to start entering southern ND as an area of instability feeds into convection, with even some lightning activity noted near Mobridge. A notable area of instability will move near the area with this low, introducing the chance for some thunderstorms, although not expected to be severe. Long range pattern favors western US ridge nosing northeast into the Northern Plains by the end of the week, with troughing further south and east. Rising heights aloft and shifting storm track will tend to favor dry conditions, however weak cold fronts may still pass into our CWA due to clippers rounding the base of the trough in Canada.
1042 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A broad mid to upper level trough axis pivoting through the southeastern United States lowered heights at all SGLs on this morning's KKEY RAOB. Surface observations place a weak ridge axis over western Cuba, with a trough axis over north-central Florida. However, moisture is lacking in the lower tropospheric sweet spot (925-700 mb), and upstream satellite derived TPW is a little lower than what was sampled at 12Z. Temperatures will need to hit 88 degrees to get past the low-level inversion. High pressure over the western Atlantic will retreat further offshore today, as a trough moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the Keys coastal waters. This trough will limp through the Keys tonight.
70s are in place across northwest Nebraska where a weak cold front will sag south out SD. A strong Pacific cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday night.
1021 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure will move off the Atlantic coast today, allowing rain chances to diminish.
1021 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure will continue off the middle Atlantic coast this morning. Mild, Pacific high pressure will follow and build across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday night. Mid-level trough and associated cold front has pushed through central NC. North-northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts between 20 and 25 mph will decrease this evening with surface pressure gradient weakening and high pressure settling in for the overnight period.
955 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic tonight.
153 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure moving east through the Great Lakes will extend an axis of the high pressure south into the Ohio Valley as it crosses the region today. As the high stalls along the OH/PA border Monday, return southerly flow will pull in warmer air to the region as a ridge builds in the upper levels west of the region.
Minimums Monday morning will largely settle in the 50s, although upper 40s will be possible in the east where the effects of the ridge axis will linger longest. With the ridge axis east of the area Monday, low level southerly flow along with ridging aloft will support a warming trend moving forward. With the relatively dry air still in place, efficient warming will lead to maximums in the low to mid 80s with minimum RHs in the 30s and lower 40s.
Upper ridging through the Central U. Mid-late week upper ridge gets suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico in response to closed low developing in Desert SW and trough swinging from the Great Lakes through New England. High pressure will build into the region tonight with moderate N-NE winds and seas. High pressure will slowly move through the area then into the Western Atlantic by mid week with light to moderate easterly winds and seas along with afternoon seabreezes and evening surges. High pressure will build into the region tonight and move through the area through mid week keeping a dry air mass in place with afternoon min RHs dropping into the mid 30 percent range.
At 333 PM, after a few light showers this morning, upper level ridging and subsequent subsidence had taken hold over the region. Monday, Warmer with Fire Weather Concerns: With ridging building aloft, CAMs projecting a well mixed boundary layer and 850 mb temperatures jumping to around 20 C, Monday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the season thus far.
A broad upper level ridge dominated the western half of the CONUS, with a Pacific upper level low and trough just offshore the West Coast. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to around 50. The large scale ridge will become amplified over the Great Plains and MS Valley tonight and Monday as the upper low and trough move slowly east into the Great Basin. The west-southwest flow aloft will become more southwesterly and increase, resulting in warmer temperatures and stronger winds. A potent Pacific cold front will approach southeast WY by midday Monday, and move through the CWA during the afternoon and evening. A mix of rain and snow is forecast for the valleys west of the Laramie Range, with snow over the higher terrain.
308 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Main forecast concerns in the short term are on precipitation type tonight over norther Clark and Taylor Counties, where a wintry mix or light freezing rain is possible tonight. Forecast soundings shows the surface cooling below freezing before this happens. This could lead to some freezing rain, especially on elevated objects such as trees but icing is expected to light. Ensemble members showing quite the spread on whether any icing would occur, but even the highest member suggests only around 1/10th inch of icing.
Daytime highs should reach 3- 5 degrees warmer than current values. With the increase in cloud cover, lows tonight should be in the 60s or about 8-12 degrees warmer than last night. For tomorrow night, should see another round of nocturnal stratus and lows should be even warmer, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
255 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 This afternoon a slow moving warm front was located across the area. The warm front and associated WAA will drive the short term weather. Discussion: Overall ridging expected through the period as the WAA machine ramps up overnight tonight. We will end up seeing gusts in the high 30 mph and maybe even near 40 later in the day.
Did go a few degrees cooler across the northwest Sandhills where models are suggesting some high cirrus clouds may move into the area by afternoon as the front begins to move into the area. The one main concern in the lower confidence is that winds aloft are only around 25 to near 35 kts at 700 mb. Pressure gradient trends are also not supportive of strong sfc winds, continuing to aid in the lower confidence in winds for Monday afternoon.
Upper ridging begins to build in from the west tomorrow with temperatures climbing into the 80s for a large part of the area.
326 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure will build over PA during the first part of the week resulting in dry weather and a significant warmup.
High pressure over the region has kept things quiet. Temperatures so far are in the lower to mid 80s east to lower 90s west, with a few hours of warming still to go.
352 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A large area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes overnight, offering dry weather and cool temperatures. As the high slides east early this week expect continued dry weather and a warming trend.