Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
322 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Upper level ridge extended from the southern Plains to along the Pacific with a upper level trough over The Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. Sunday will be cooler, mainly east of the Laramie Range with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
634 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 The upper level trough that brought rainy and cloudy weather to our region has moved off to the east. Highs today will return to the upper 80s and mid 90s across the region out ahead of a final piece of energy that will be dropping south and rounding the trough off to our east.
612 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today and Tonight) The upper level ridge will remain over the area today, but will shift west of the area later tonight, as an upper level short wave trough drops southeast across the central and northern Plains states. Skies will be mostly sunny areawide, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s for most of the area.
(Rest of Today) After a cooler start across the TN Valley this morning, temperatures have warmed into the middle 60s under generally clear skies.
422 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Today through tonight: A cold front is expected to begin approaching the forecast area from the north as we go through the weekend. For today, the low level ridge ahead of the front will support temperatures getting well into the 90s under mostly sunny skies, especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta region where heat indices will likely top out near 100 F.
1027 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Southerly winds associated with a warm front will help temperatures to rebound closer to normal today. A cold front will then cross the region on Sunday. This will bring a return to cooler conditions for much of the work week. Southerly flow and warm air advection on the back side of a high pressure system and in association with a warm front will allow temperatures to rise back into the lower to mid 70s. This will push a cold front across the region. A broad longwave trough over the eastern half of the U.
328 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Expect another day of dry, sunny, and warm conditions today with Colorado on the eastern periphery of a strengthening ridge aloft. Temperatures rise into the low 80s for the plains/urban corridor, 60s for the foothills/mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s for the mountains. A weak cold front moves through Saturday evening with moisture/precipitation expected with it. On Sunday, The high pressure ridge axis will be west of Colorado with a moderate northwest flow in place. The airmass will remain dry but cooler conditions expected following a cold front from the evening before.
630 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The region continues to be under the influence of mid-level ridging aloft with broad expansion across the Lone Star state according to latest Upper Air analysis and WV satellite. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with 80s over the high terrain, 90s for a majority of the area, and even some 100+ located down in the RGV.
By mid-week, the stout eastern H500 trough will begin to shift toward the coast, with broad ridging spread across the central U. This more zonal flow regime will usher in slightly warmer temperatures to close out the week.
Soundings indicate deep mixing - around 800 to 750 mb with cold air advection aloft - and with increasing midlevel winds, it will be a windy day with winds at the top of the mixed layer running anywhere from 30 to 40 kts, and continued the trend of staying on the higher side of guidance with respect to wind speeds. This in combination with highs in the lower to mid 70s will result in afternoon RH values of 25 percent or less west of Interstate 29. This will be something that will have to be monitored as warmer temperatures or lower dew points will result in critical fire weather conditions.
With east winds across the entire region with the thermal trough along the coast and an upper ridge bringing subsidence, most of the area inland, except for lowest parts of west side river valleys are clear this morning.
348 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Issued 348 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: Low pressure will slide through this evening into tonight, bringing another round of showers to southern Wisconsin. The showers could be confined to a relatively narrow swath, so there is some uncertainty with precip chances on the fringes of the higher chance swath.
Northwest flow aloft back in place extending from an upper level ridge across the Rockies and high plains. Morning lows overnight again in the 50s with another weak cold front that will push through before sunrise.
High pressure then looks to build over the Northern Rockies through the first half of the week bringing warm and dry conditions, along with relatively light winds.
448 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 High pressure will persist through the rest of the weekend.
1147 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Clear skies this morning along with a very dry air mass has led to efficient radiational cooling as temperatures are much cooler than they were yesterday. Just a signal that with the turn to autumn and a robust west to east oriented jet, any robust moisture surge we receive is not sticking around to long and quick to exit after a deep enough trough sweeps it out of here. The aforementioned upper level jet will relax today as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Great Basin with the ridge axis arcing up into the Intermountain West. By Sunday, high pressure remains parked out west and slides ever so slightly eastward.
Upper level ridging will persist over the northern Gulf Coast today. The northerly flow at the surface combined with subsidence from the upper ridge will keep conditions dry for today under mostly sunny skies. Therefore, even with the warmer temps, it won't feel as muggy outside as it did earlier this week. The rain free conditions continue overnight as upper ridging maintains its hold. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 60s over far interior locations to the upper 60s down closer to the coast, with some low to mid 70s along the beaches. On Sunday, the upper ridging pushes out over the Gulf waters and weakens as a large upper trough digs into the Deep South from the Great Lakes region.
246 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Key message: 1) Cooler for Sunday. upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and an upper ridge over the Great Basin will allow for northwest flow to continue across Colorado through Sunday. A weak cold front will drop south across the Plains tonight, bringing northerly winds and cooler air into the region. Upper high over the western U.
Meanwhile, further north and west, the leading edge of the much-anticipated cold front had nudged into northern portions of Parmer and Castro Counties. A pre-frontal trough has slipped into the northwest South Plains bringing a westerly wind shift and some convergence along a line from around Muleshoe up to Tulia but so far, cumulus development along this axis has been minimal. While the forecast area will be generally 4-8 degrees cooler Sunday behind the front, it appears we'll still be above average for late September - for example at Lubbock we're forecasting a high of 87 vs the average high of 83.
349 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 A cold front will push through central Illinois this evening, ushering in a much drier air mass. Despite cold frontal passage, Sunday temperatures could over- achieve forecast guidance as a rapidly drying PBL and some degree of compressional warming advects across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. We've strayed a little warmer than the NBM with highs in the mid 70s. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 50s amid cooler air advecting in from the north.
The transient low over the Great Lakes puts the Midwest and Western Coast into a ridging pattern as the low digs in.
A cold front moves in Sunday from the north, bringing colder air into the forecast area.
342 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Discussion/Marine Deep upper level trough will set up shop over the GrtLks Rgn the next several days and will combine with lake induced instability to produce frequent rain showers and perhaps even a few tstms.
304 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Dry and slightly warmer as high pressure shifts offshore.
1123 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 After starting the in the upper 50s and lower 60s this morning, temperatures are already in the low to upper 80s across the region.
320 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 This Evening through Sunday: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the dry air associated with an old fragment of high pressure pivoting off to our southeast along the eastern Gulf Coast, while an upper-level low pressure system spinning over South Texas wraps up better moisture toward the western and central Gulf Coast areas. 5+ PWAT values starting to move northward along the Mississippi River valley toward an approaching cold front, where additional moisture is pooled along along the boundary.
Narrow band of showers continues to push east in front of the trough or wind shift line in NE ND. Westerly winds and upper clouds seem to erode the lower CIGs. Sunday will start with clear skies and see temps climb into the 60s across the region with breezy NW winds as pressure gradient force increases and winds respond to high pressure building into the western high plains.
A broad upper-level trough, along with an attendant surface cold front, will sweep through the region tonight into the day Sunday.
234 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 A decaying frontal boundary is just to the south of our CWA border and high pressure is ridging down the state from the Carolinas. Weak flow aloft with a trough over much of the eastern US but weak ridging nudging in across the state from the Atlantic.
(Through Sunday) High pressure centered to the north early this afternoon, will then move more toward the northeast through Tonight. The high will be east of the region Sunday, as a cold front moves south toward the southeastern US. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s inland, to the lower 70s at the coast.
1203 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 The upper level trough that brought rainy and cloudy weather to our region has moved off to the east. Highs today will return to the upper 80s and mid 90s across the region out ahead of a final piece of energy that will be dropping south and rounding the trough off to our east.
237 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Presently, the region remains in northwest flow aloft and this will persist through the period as a west CONUS ridge amplifies. At the surface, a trough off to the east along with high pressure to the west is producing breezy winds at the surface. The pressure gradient will tighten during the morning Sunday as low pressure to the east deepens and high pressure from the west nudges into the Dakotas. High pressure nudging into the western Dakotas will limit winds there Sunday, however, gusty winds are expected in the eastern half of the forecast area.
(This evening through Sunday night) Based on current water vapor imagery, there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over the western Great Lakes Region into southern Ontario. Upstream is a is a ridge moving in on the coast of western CONUS. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s to the northwest and low 60s to the southeast. With slightly upsloping winds daytime highs on Sunday are looking to be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s for the northwest and upper 80s for the southeast combined Panhandles.
At the surface, the CWA will be situated between low pressure to the east and high pressure approaching from the west tonight and Sunday.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a ridge in the western U. Deep 500 mb troughing then sets into the ern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the west coast, another in the ern U. with a ridge across the Rockies 12z Wed. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu. As a low pressure moves through this afternoon and leaves tonight, expect conditions to progressively become worse at each of the TAF sites, with at least KIWD and KCMX hitting LIFR conditions tonight (KSAW has a chance to too, but not as confident).
NW upper flow will continue over the the area as an upper ridge pushes in from the Pacific NW.
104 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today and tonight) The region will remain on the eastern side of mid to upper level ridging.
1221 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather today, though an increase in clouds is expected. Rain chances return tonight and Sunday with low pressure. Mid level moisture associated with an approaching warm front will continue to spread eastward across the upper Ohio Valley today. Outside of an increase in cloud cover a few sprinkles may be possible but dry air in the low levels, as is noted in this mornings sounding, will generally keep the region dry today. Upper trough will pivot and deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into Sunday.
130 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight into Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Upper trough will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through midweek. Mid level moisture associated with an approaching warm front will continue to spread eastward across the upper Ohio Valley today. Outside of an increase in cloud cover a few sprinkles may be possible but dry air in the low levels, as is noted in this mornings sounding, will generally keep the region dry today. Upper trough will pivot and deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into Sunday.
222 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Dry and slightly warmer today as high pressure shifts offshore.
1205 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today and Tonight) The upper level ridge will remain over the area today, but will shift west of the area later tonight, as an upper level short wave trough drops southeast across the central and northern Plains states. Skies will be mostly sunny areawide, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s for most of the area.
For tonight, the main upper level system will pass to the south and west of the area, thus the highest chances of showers will be across central into east- central Wisconsin. A weak area of low pressure will move across Wisconsin with winds turning to the northwest later tonight. The cool northwest winds flowing over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Superior will bring increasing chances of rain showers to far northern Wisconsin.
219 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 High pressure will shift east off the coast by this evening, while another low pressure system approaches from the west. This low pressure system will bring spotty light showers or sprinkles to the lower Mid- Atlantic this afternoon and more so tonight, before an associated cold front passes across the region on Sunday. Skies to clear out overnight some before more clouds arrive ahead of cold front. Expect mix of sun and clouds with warmer temperatures and breezy conditions ahead of and behind the front.
1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Now through Sunday) Broad and weak 500 mb low pressure will be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA during the period.
A cold front will begin to push through the region in earnest overnight tonight and through Sunday morning. With the timing of the front, the cooler temperatures will take some time to move into the region, with highs on Sunday in western north Texas and southern Oklahoma still reaching the mid 90s, however highs will be in the mid 80s elsewhere with clear skies.
114 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather today, though an increase in clouds is expected. Rain chances return tonight and Sunday with low pressure. Mid level moisture associated with an approaching warm front will continue to spread eastward across the upper Ohio Valley today. Outside of an increase in cloud cover a few sprinkles may be possible but dry air in the low levels, as is noted in this mornings sounding, will generally keep the region dry today. Upper trough will pivot and deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into Sunday.
A weak cold front is sliding south from Montana, east of the divide, with a wind shift to the north, and gusty in places.
With the evaporating precip and broken to overcast cloud cover, temperatures have been running cooler than forecast. Max temps will be lowered a few degrees across the northern half, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Increased cloud cover and a few degrees warmer today with an outside chance of showers mainly north of I-40 and along the Plateau and Appalachians. Because of the placement of the high and the flow, cloud cover has increased overnight and showers have developed north of us over much of the Ohio Valley. As a result, temperatures will be a bit warmer today with low 80s in the Valley south of I-40.
(This evening through Sunday) The main concern in the short term is a weak cold front which will move into the Big Country tomorrow afternoon with a few showers possible. A weak upper ridge remains over west Texas this afternoon, with warm and dry conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon and evening. A deepening trough over the eastern half of the US will shift the ridge westward with northwest flow aloft developing over the area on Sunday.
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 After starting the in the upper 50s and lower 60s this morning, temperatures are already in the low to upper 80s across the region.
1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Rest of Today) After a cooler start across the TN Valley this morning, temperatures have warmed into the middle 60s under generally clear skies.
High pressure will bring a beautiful weekend to the region, with gradual warming and light winds.
(This evening through Sunday Night) A very welcomed, and very pleasant change in the pattern is expected over the course of the short-term, as a cold front begins to move through the area tomorrow night. Unfortunately, the region won't really feel the effects of this cold front until Sunday night, with above average temperatures expected until then. The welcomed swing in the temperatures will begin Sunday night, where lows look to fall into the low and upper-60s as cold air advection begins to filter into the region. This frontal passage looks to be relatively dry, with confidence not the highest that some showers and thunderstorms will develop along I-20 tomorrow afternoon.
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper ridge continues over the southern U. this morning with an upper trough over the Midwest. The high will shift to the western U. tonight and the upper trough will dip into the central and eastern states and this will continue on Sunday. A warm front will move into the state this morning. This will bring moisture and warmer temperatures to the area today ahead of the next cold front in the Plains. The cold front will move into north Arkansas late tonight and clear the southern border by Sunday evening.
Temperatures are right around 80 F over the plains at this time with 50s and 60s F in the mountains, but even cooler along the divide. Models keep a significant upper ridge over the western United States and weak northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA. The low level wind fields and thickness grids show a weak cold front with upslope flow to move into the plains and foothills late this evening. As a result, Sunday's highs will be a tad cooler than today's and more around seasonal normals. An upper level ridge will dominate our weather through much of the upcoming week.
1217 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging over Texas will continue to flatten and shift westward today in response to broadening troughing over the Great Lakes region.
Expect another day of dry, sunny, and warm conditions today with Colorado on the eastern periphery of a strengthening ridge aloft. Temperatures rise into the low 80s for the plains/urban corridor, 60s for the foothills/mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s for the mountains. A weak cold front moves through Saturday evening with moisture/precipitation expected with it. On Sunday, The high pressure ridge axis will be west of Colorado with a moderate northwest flow in place. The airmass will remain dry but cooler conditions expected following a cold front from the evening before.
1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The region continues to be under the influence of mid-level ridging aloft with broad expansion across the Lone Star state according to latest Upper Air analysis and WV satellite. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with 80s over the high terrain, 90s for a majority of the area, and even some 100+ located down in the RGV.
1112 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Upper level ridge extended from the southern Plains to along the Pacific with a upper level trough over The Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. Sunday will be cooler, mainly east of the Laramie Range with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Today feels more like summer than fall, as temperatures are on target to top out in the lower to middle 90s across lower elevations, upper 80s in the mountains, and lower 100s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. The quiescent pattern will continue into tonight, with another clear, cool night ahead with lows in the lower to middle 60s for most. A change will arrive Sunday, as a trough translating across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes sends a cold front south through the region. While cooler, these temperatures will still be above normal for late September. Light easterly winds and post-frontal conditions will yield a slightly cooler night Sunday night, with lows ranging from the middle 50s to the middle 60s for most locations.
Southwest winds will bringing in warmer air, with temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A quiet and warmer afternoon will continue with mostly sunny skies. Tonight, an upper low will strengthen as it moves from Upper Michigan into southern Canada. A trough will rotate around the low into the area. At the surface, a cold front will move through. The best forcing though will remain north of central Indiana, closer to the upper low. Clouds and southerly winds ahead of the cold front will only allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to around 60 for lows tonight. The cold front will exit early on Sunday.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing an upper ridge off the west coast with a broad trough generally covering the northeastern CONUS.
304 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 After dry conditions for most of tonight, the approach and passage of a weak cold front will lead to showery weather on Sunday, with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. By mid-week, high pressure should build over the region, with drier weather and seasonably cool temperatures. We expect fairly widespread showers to develop on Sunday, as an upper low deepens upstream over the Lower Great Lakes region, while a low to mid-level jet axis advects moisture into the Commonwealth. Afternoon highs should range from the lower 60s in the northern mountains, to the mid 70s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
High pressure will keep building across our area. Dry air will mean some pretty chilly nights and warmer days, even with shorter daylight hours. Winds will remain light, especially with the ridge axis building over the state in the next 24 hours.
Dry weather will accompany the warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
2) Cooler temperatures Sunday with high temperatures being 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Saturday. Southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle are still split between the ridge over the western CONUS and the trough over north-central CONUS, creating a decent pressure gradient, bringing dry conditions and gusty winds 20 to 30 MPH over much of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. A brief upper level disturbance will pass through tonight into tomorrow, changing our wind direction to more northwesterly and injecting cooler temperatures.
356 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight into Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Mid level moisture associated with an approaching warm front will continue to spread eastward across the upper Ohio Valley through tonight. Upper trough will pivot and deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into Sunday.