Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SHORT WSW LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY DUE TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES NOTED BACK WEST INTO SIOUX COUNTY SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE ROCKIES.
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE MID- UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
Temps will either hold steady or slowly rise toward dawn and are well above freezing.
1113 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATER THURSDAY.
1221 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
Overrunning rain chances will develop and increase from west to east today as warm frontogenesis develops from a system over the southern plains. Rain chances will max out this evening into the overnight hours as the aforementioned warm front lifts northeast across the region.
TROUGH AXIS/WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE JAMES VALLEY/ABERDEEN AREA. CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 15Z AND WILL EVALUATE AT THAT TIME TO SEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. WE MAY SWITCH OVER TO MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE LOSE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT AT THE UPPER LEVELS. CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK OUT WEST TO SEE IF IT IS NEEDED THERE.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT LOW- LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF A 500-MB LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE TIMEFRAME FOR MOST RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 09-12Z WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST. THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY 12Z -- WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
414 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
1248 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. IN THE LOWS WAKE. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 3/4 MILES AT MINOT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW.
As this boundary continues to retreat northward today in advance of an approaching cold front, rain chances will come to an end quickly in our area. Expect highs to at least make it to the lower 80s, but mid 80s are certainly possible if skies clear out sooner than expected.
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROFFING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE OBS ACROSS ND AND NORTHEAST MT SHOW LARGE AREA OF FOG/LOW CLOUD HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA IN RESPONSE TO WIND SHIFT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA SAGS SOUTHWARD. COMBINATION OF WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND DEEPENING COLD AIR/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF OUR WESTERN/CENTRAL PARTS TODAY. TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DROP TO NEAR -12C SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF DEEPENING WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MORE RAIN TODAY WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR THE EAST CENTRAL CORNER.
IF THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DOES NOT DROP BELOW 76 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS WE CONTINUE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN ONE TO ONE AND HALF INCHES BUT DEVELOPMENT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
645 PM MDT A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGING IN COLDER CANADIAN AIR. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ALBERTA BY LATE THURS MORNING, BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY LIGHT SNOW VCNTY KCTB/KHVR AFTER 15-16Z.
MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE.
319 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 A DEEP TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. FOG IS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IOWA JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY 1 MILE OR LESS. IN FACT RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER MIGHT AS 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA.
BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST STATES AND FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
The first round of convection is ongoing early this morning as a cold front sags southeast through the Pennyrile region of western KY. The front will start a northward return as a warm front tonight. Temps will begin to rise late tonight in some areas as the warm front passes.
OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT. INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF CO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN MORNING.
(46) LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME AND LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE.
SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING AT ONSET AND TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. WITH THE SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PCPN.
WITH A WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP TROUGHING IS RULING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE RIDGING IS HOLDING FAST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALSO A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AS WELL. ONE FACTOR THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA IS HOW WELL CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED TO OUR SOUTH.
351 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 AT H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK TO KENTUCKY THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. STRONG 130KT+JET DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY WITH MOIST LOWER LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE. HAVE SKEWED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN TO THE SNOWLESS GROUND BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE KEPT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AND SOME MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
High pressure currently centered over central Iowa will push east today, with surface winds across the area becoming easterly by afternoon. Temperatures will remain above average, topping out in the low to mid 50s.
LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EWD.
1137 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT CLEARING THROUGH THE LOWEST 10KFT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND INTO LOWER MI TODAY AMIDST MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS GIVE JUST ENOUGH PAUSE FROM GOING TOO OPTIMISTIC ON AFTERNOON SKY COVER.
1022 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO CREEP NWD THIS EVENING WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 537 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015/ A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1206 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WINDS WILL CARRY MUCH COLDER AIR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE U. MODELS SHOW THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING TO THE ERN CONUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THIS EVENING.
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS TO JUST EAST OF PADUCAH HAS BEEN INSITU LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THINK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRY AND WORK INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME TODAY.
455 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AREA OF SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. IN THE LOWS WAKE.
645 PM MDT A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGING IN COLDER CANADIAN AIR. BROAD TROUGH WITH POCKETS OF EMBEDDED MOISTURE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PRODUCING MIX OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS.
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 20S COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
Clouds continue to increase through the evening hours, with inverted surface trof into the western counties around 6z. First system arrives on late Tuesday evening into Wednesday as a cold front provides a focused area of lift for widespread showers to develop.
356 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MOIST AND WARM SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CIRCULATING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MS RIVER.
1130 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015 WITH MODELS SHOWING A LARGE BROAD TROF MAINTAINING OVER THE CONUS. PATTERN WILL FAVOR AN EVENTUAL THRUST OF CAA INTO THE LOWER 48 BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50 SOUTH.
MOIST ADVCTN IN RESPONSE TO PTN AMPLIFICATION/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVR THE MIDWEST.
1145 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND STALL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. DEEP-LAYER-MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. AND RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS OBSERVED OVER THE COOLER WATERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM THE LOW. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A SOUTH WIND TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES START TO DROP OFF TOWARD MORNING AND COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. IT IS A MATTER OF IF THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW FREEZING. DO NOT FEEL IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
330 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 Cold front that triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central and southeast Illinois earlier this evening has now pushed into Indiana, leaving behind cloudy but dry conditions across the KILX CWA early this morning. As high pressure moves off to the east, increasing southwesterly flow will bring warmer/more humid air into the region tonight into Wednesday. With low pressure ejecting out of the Rockies, scattered showers will arrive late tonight, although the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until Wednesday. A potentially volatile day is unfolding on Wednesday as deepening low pressure tracks from near Kansas City early in the day to Lake Superior by evening. Cold front will sweep through the region by around midnight, with rain chances ending overnight.
HIGHS WILL COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN USA.
THE TROUGH/JET WILL INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME.
Ahead of the cold front today, another mild day is forecast with partly cloudy skies and south winds of 12 to 25 mph. The cold front will pass through much of western Kansas by midnight, then across the rest of south central Kansas by morning with south winds shifting northwest at 12 to 22 mph. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s with the warmest east of Dodge City. A cold front will push through the area during the night. Model sounding profiles show the lower atmosphere continuing to be fairly dry but there will be a fair amount of mid and high level moisture. There continues to be quite a bit variability in the GFS model ensemble members as they offer up anything from open waves to upper low systems tracking through southwest/south central or even southeast Kansas.
400 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM ARE SUGGESTING LIGHT SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SPAWNED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BOISE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD WHICH WERE AFFECTING POCATELLO AS OF 9 PM. ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPIRE AS MODERATE SNOWS LIFT NE WITH THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
STILL ON TRACK BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS EVE.
Fog was forming early this morning across SE Kansas and SW Missouri in an area of clearing skies and weak high pressure moving in. Temperatures will end up in the low 30s by sunrise. If the higher instability from the NAM verifies then the main storm hazards would be winds and hail as the storms would likely remain rooted above the surface. Christmas Eve and Christmas day look dry as a west to west- southwest flow develops across the area ahead of a large trough across the Southwest U. Models are indicating the development of a strong closed low to slowly move across the Desert SW and into the southern plains this weekend.
UNSEASONABLY STG UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVER THE WRN ATL AND SERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD. WITH MEAN TROF POSN OVER THE WRN PLAINS/ROCKIES. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WL DEVELOP OUT TO THE WEST TDA AND TNGT.
Ahead of the cold front today, another mild day is forecast with partly cloudy skies and south winds of 12 to 25 mph. The cold front will pass through much of western Kansas by midnight, then across the rest of south central Kansas by morning with south winds shifting northwest at 12 to 22 mph. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s with the warmest east of Dodge City.
240 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MAKE FOR A RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FORTY.
124 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 DENSE FOG ADVISORY JUST SENT FOR THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF DEEP E TX/N LA NEAR AND S OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL FEATURE RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE FRONT FROM PROGRESSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BROAD U/L TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A STRONG DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN US FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN USA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FEED ACROSS THE EAST EVEN AS WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
As the low continues to pull away the trend will be for snow to decrease although unstable northwest flow will keep snow showers persisting for the Idaho Palouse, Central Panhandle Mountains, and Blue Mountains and thus the winter highlights have been extended through 10 am Tuesday in these areas. Cooler air is moving in on the back side of the low with temperatures down to near 30F on the palouse with snow and breezy winds.
THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES TO OVERSPREAD A RICH WARM SECTOR.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RACE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL BE IN A POSITION TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MORE PROXIMATE TO THE TROUGH AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST (LOWER 80S) WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND NORTHEAST (MID/UPPER 70S). THEN RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
With some of the higher elevations around Spokane picking up 4-5 inches already will keep the winter storm warning in place with another inch or two likely. The heaviest snow for the remainder of tonight will be focused over the Central Panhandle Mountains as the low moves east and westerly upslope flow kicks in enhancing snow amounts. However Pullman has changed back to snow as cooler air moves in on the back side of the low. Models still indicate cooler temperature being advected in tonight from the northwest behind the low.
Moisture will likely wrap around the back side of the low on Wednesday afternoon making showers a continued possibility throughout the daylight hours; however, temperatures aloft will be too slow to cool for any wintry precipitation to mix in.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING A LARGE H5 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY. MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS OUR CWA ARE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY REMAINING TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. AND THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
This will set the stage for Tuesday to see a bit more sun and a return of warmer temperatures with southerly winds. Models continue to show good meridional flow Tuesday into Tuesday night as the trough axis deepens to our west. Additionally, MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG are once again noted advecting northeast ahead of the digging trough to our west, so including thunderstorms in the forecast for rain continues to look like a good idea.
AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS IS A GOOD SCENARIO FOR PRECIPITATION FROM WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BUT LACK OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT 'S STILL LINGERING AROUND 1. BUT MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALL THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE LOWER 80'S ACROSS THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND IN THE MID TO NEAR UPPER 80S IN THE INTERIOR.
308 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 Patchy dense fog/freezing fog has begun to develop over portions of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. A freezing fog advisory will be issued shortly. Broad long-wave trough will shift out of the Intermountain West late this afternoon into tonight.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ON NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH EVEN WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIT IN THE LOWER 70S.
ONE PASSING WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN.
/ISSUED 836 PM CST MON DEC 21 2015/ A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND IS NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO NEWPORT AND MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED.
MOIST ADVCTN IN RESPONSE TO PTN AMPLIFICATION/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVR THE MIDWEST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THU. WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFICATION RESULTING OVR THE UPR OH VLY REGION.