Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Remnant outflow paired with a weak cold front will move into the area late this evening into the overnight hours, shifting winds to a more northeasterly direction. A composite outflow/cold front is expected to reach the northern Permian Basin and be the focus for any convection late this evening. The stalled cold front is expected to begin retreating north as a warm front early in the afternoon. A combination of post- frontal upslope flow and convergence along the warm front is expected to be the focus for thunderstorm development early. As convective outflow begins to develop, this will push the front back south as a cold front once again later that afternoon. Temperatures continue to be hot with temperatures only a degree or two cooler than Friday, despite the cold front.
Broken record forecast continues with the area parked between a low well to our west with a gradually strengthening ridge of high pressure to the southeast. That being said, chances are quite low still with generally only about a 20% chance with the higher chances to the north of the forecast area. Higher winds will cause fire weather concerns though with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s across much of the lower terrain.
855 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022 High pressure will be strengthening over the Southwest into the weekend. This will mean progressively warmer weather.
(Through tonight ) A weak cold front will continue sagging south across the area overnight. (Tomorrow through Friday) Somewhat cooler temperatures will prevail this weekend in the wake of the cold front, with most places remaining in the 90s for afternoon highs.
The high center will be over southern CO, with the ridge axis extending over the High Plains. Similar conditions will return for Saturday, with the ridge axis shifting eastward over the Northern/Central Plains. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be more widespread Saturday afternoon, as a result of the southwest flow aloft and a tighter sfc pressure gradient due to a leeside trough over eastern WY.
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Yet another day of heat is in store for west central Texas as a strong upper-level ridge will settle in across the Four Corners region. As the ridge height climbs to near 600dam, 850mb temperatures will be about 25-27 deg C. By this evening, a weak cold front, helped along by northwest flow aloft over the central Plains, will drop into north Texas.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge extending north through eastern Montana and western Dakotas. A closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and the area between these dominant airmasses is providing an express lane for pacific moisture and weak disturbances from northern California through eastern Montana in SW flow aloft. The wave moves to the east late tonight which will allow for a period of hot and dry weather in most areas with upper ridge over the area and minimal waves in the flow aloft.
1111 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 09Z upper level analysis has ridging over the Four Corners region extending north into the Northern Plains. Weak troffing is present downstream of the ridge axis across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the area. Lacking a strong kicker, convection will have to initiate off the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills to get going. Upper ridge axis crosses into the Northern Plains on Saturday, with hot and mainly dry conditions expected. As a cool front slides through the Northern Plains late in the day and overnight, winds will become more northerly as slightly cooler air moves in.
As the lower to mid level flow becomes a bit more easterly to southeasterly today, moisture levels will continue to slowly increase and the CAMs are in good agreement for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the NM border and in Cochise County later this afternoon and into this evening. With a lower tier east-west oriented ridge in a semi blocking position and a trough off the west coast, we will continue to see the resulting westerly component to our flow limit thunderstorm chances today. By Saturday afternoon, the building ridge should see a high center consolidating near northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. While moisture will still be below average, the resulting easterly flow will favor strong organized outflow off the higher eastern terrain toward lower deserts.
344 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 A weak cold front moves south across the area this evening through early tonight.
109 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Upper ridge continues to amplify over the area, in response to approaching PacNW trof, tonight into the day on Saturday. Ridging continues into tomorrow afternoon with another hot dry day with highs in the 90s.
All models show high pressure strengthening aloft on Saturday, with rising 500 mb heights over SW KS. ECMWF places a 600 dm upper high near Alamosa, Colorado midday Saturday. Despite warming and ridging aloft, weak easterly components will hold afternoon temperatures near Friday's readings, once again in the mid 90s. On Saturday, a 500-hPa ridge starts to amplify across the Central Rockies.
Most of the showers have remained over the waters but have on occasion moved across the Middle and Upper Keys and portions of the Lower Keys. Despite the increased shower coverage today, temperatures have still managed to reach to near 90 degrees and even a few select locations reached into the lower 90s. The Florida Keys remain south of the subtropical ridge axis which now lies across central Florida this afternoon. A low to mid level trough is currently situated in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and sliding southeast. As this feature slides southeast, it will shove the ridge axis further south and over our area by this weekend.
236 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times today into tonight as a low pressure system moves east across the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the region through the weekend. High pressure skirts by to the north Saturday night bringing mostly clear skies to the Ohio Valley.
There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms once again today, mainly across the higher terrain from Baker County east into the Idaho mountains.
150 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Showers are ending from north to south this afternoon, as drier air builds into the area from the northeast in the wake of a backdoor cold front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80, except near Lake Michigan, where a lake breeze will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the low to mid 70s.
Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
Recent events have been handled poorly by weather models, even the high resolution ensemble modeling systems, so our confidence in those systems is low right now. For the longer term, ensembles are still building a ridge over the northern Rockies region, but ensembles have trended further eastward with the ridge axis. Even still, the ridge strengthens, and we are expecting some drier weather across most of the region.
/issued 324 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022/ SHORT TERM ((Now through Saturday): Persistence is the name of the game due to a sprawling H5 ridge across Texas.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Center of 500mb ridge becomes centered over New Mexico and the 4-corners region Saturday but remains extended over Texas. Deep South Texas weather shows no change from the last several days with the ridge providing large scale subsidence leading to very hot temperatures and dry conditions.
Plenty of moisture exists at the surface, with afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across the area. A deeper trough will try to move southeast on Saturday, and bring a more pronounced front during the day.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified ridge axis is situated across the central CONUS into central Canada this afternoon sandwiched between troughing across the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia and over the eastern Great Lakes/New England/Quebec. This ridge axis shifts east ever so slightly tonight with slowly rising heights as the rule locally. Attendant expansive area of high pressure centered to our north will continue to gradually sink into the western Great Lakes tonight. Aside from some occasionally breezy north-northeast winds continuing through early evening, decreasing cloudiness is expected to be the rule through tonight as aforementioned high pressure makes its effects felt. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across eastern upper and the typically cooler/interior spots south of the bridge.
Drier air is expected to arrive from the north as high pressure builds into the area from Canada for the rest of today through Saturday. Overnight lows will be cooler with the high directly overhead and clearing skies, with 40s possible across the Northwoods to low 50s elsewhere.
Guidance has been remarkably consistent with respect to temperatures with highs generally ranging from near 80 to the low 80s. Given expected offshore winds during this time, we could end up seeing some of the highest daytime maximum temperatures right by the lakeshore.
The Florida Keys lie at the southern periphery of a deep layer mean ridge that is centered over the southern tier of the United States, and extending eastward over the western North Atlantic Ocean. An old outflow boundary from afternoon Cuban thunderstorms has migrated northward, and is passing through the lower Keys right now.
521 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge axis into eastern MT/WY. Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peak as low pressure along lee trough moves into eastern MT.
Maintained the highest POPs S of I 70 where slightly better ascent and mid lvl moisture is progged. Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
A weak cold front moves south across the area this evening through early tonight.
547 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Can only find the odd cloud across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with some CU buildup over the higher terrain heading towards the Continental Divide. Hardly any vertical growth/buildup noted on local webcams due to subsidence from the area of high pressure moving in. So far, they're running about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday and with plenty of heating left in the day, wouldn't be surprised to see a few more degrees added to that total. Tomorrow, more of the same as high pressure continues to influence the weather. An upper level trough will be approaching from the west and will eventually ride up and over the ridge and will cause an uptick in moisture but more on that below.
614 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Through tonight ) A weak cold front will continue sagging south across the area overnight. (Tomorrow through Friday) Somewhat cooler temperatures will prevail this weekend in the wake of the cold front, with most places remaining in the 90s for afternoon highs.
No big changes to the forecast for this weekend as a weak trough sweeps across the West coast.
Warm temps in the low to mid 80s this evening will slowly settle in the mid to upper 70s overnight.
just added the lower visibilities to the forecast for the time being and will also update the HWO to include the mention of reduced visibilities towards daybreak. Overall confidence in shower/thunderstorm activity for this afternoon/evening is pretty low at this time, although there is a chance of a few isolated t-storms further west toward the High Plains.
602 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A strong and persistent upper level ridge remains parked over the Four Corners region, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast through Saturday. Expect overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s, and some localized areas in the low 80s.
1030 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Low pressure will ride along a stationary front south of the state tonight. Clouds covering most of central PA late this evening as a wave of low pressure translates eastward along stationary front south of the Mason Dixon line. Upper trough swinging southeastward through the Ohio Valley tonight will enhance the shower activity over the southern half of central PA through late tonight and early Saturday, and despite the richest deep layer moisture to be found south of the Mason Dixon line, some local downpours should result INVOF and just north of the stalled front. The warmer places will be the middle of the CWA where the clouds move away just in time for the temps to get a boost into the L80s.
The good news is that models remain in decent agreement that the high pressure centered over the southern U.
The ridge over the Four Corners region that is responsible for this increase in temperature will allow for the gradual return of monsoonal moisture to the southeastern portion of the forecast area.
Slightly cooler air has filtered in behind the front, along with a northerly breeze. Temperatures have dropped into the 80s this evening behind the front which is some 5-10 degrees cooler compared to last night. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Friday) Somewhat cooler temperatures will prevail this weekend in the wake of the cold front, with most places remaining in the 90s for afternoon highs.
High pressure continues to build south into the region, bringing with it clear skies and seasonably cool conditions. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified ridge axis is situated across the central CONUS into central Canada this afternoon sandwiched between troughing across the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia and over the eastern Great Lakes/New England/Quebec. This ridge axis shifts east ever so slightly tonight with slowly rising heights as the rule locally. Attendant expansive area of high pressure centered to our north will continue to gradually sink into the western Great Lakes tonight. Aside from some occasionally breezy north-northeast winds continuing through early evening, decreasing cloudiness is expected to be the rule through tonight as aforementioned high pressure makes its effects felt. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across eastern upper and the typically cooler/interior spots south of the bridge.
Arthur Upper ridge continues to amplify over the area, in response to approaching PacNW trof, tonight into the day on Saturday. Ridging continues into tomorrow afternoon with another hot dry day with highs in the 90s.
Overnight lows will eventually reach the low to mid 70s.
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Low pressure will ride along a stationary front south of the state tonight. Upper trough swinging southeastward through the Ohio Valley this evening will enhance the shower activity over the southern half of central PA through late tonight, and despite the richest deep layer moisture to be found south of the Mason Dixon line, some local downpours should result INVOF and just north of the stalled front. Some indications of them lingering into mid- afternoon in the SE are there from the NAM and HREF, so we will hang onto the high chcs for there into the aftn. The warmer places will be the middle of the CWA where the clouds move away just in time for the temps to get a boost into the L80s.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front that extended roughly from southern MN east-southeast into southern Lower MI. High pressure located over southern Ontario had begun to sink south, bringing a much drier air mass into WI with dew points over the far north already in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The high pressure will continue to gradually settle over the Great Lakes tonight, leading to mainly clear skies and light winds. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions are expected with min temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 40s far north- central WI, to the middle 50s across east-central WI. This high pressure is forecast to remain anchored over the region through Saturday, thereby bringing a great day to do anything outdoors.
926 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Low pressure will ride along a stationary front south of the state tonight. Upper trough swinging southeastward through the Ohio Valley this evening will enhance the shower activity over the southern half of central PA through late tonight, and despite the richest deep layer moisture to be found south of the Mason Dixon line, some local downpours should result INVOF and just north of the stalled front. Some indications of them lingering into mid- afternoon in the SE are there from the NAM and HREF, so we will hang onto the high chcs for there into the aftn. The warmer places will be the middle of the CWA where the clouds move away just in time for the temps to get a boost into the L80s.
High pressure overhead will continue to maintain a quiet weather pattern through the TAF period and as a result VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals.
Southeast winds will be moderate on Saturday with high pressure still firmly in control. /issued 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Center of 500mb ridge becomes centered over New Mexico and the 4-corners region Saturday but remains extended over Texas. Deep South Texas weather shows no change from the last several days with the ridge providing large scale subsidence leading to very hot temperatures and dry conditions.
This will result a few scattered to isolated shower/storms for today with cooler and drier air working behind the front for later tonight. Cooler drier air will begin to filter on overnight as the front continues to drop south and high pressure over the Great Lakes begins build to the north. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s for most of central KY with a few southern IN locations in the upper 50s.
331 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Short term (through tomorrow night): Today, mid-level ridging will gradually recede westward as an upper-level longwave trough descends over the SE CONUS and a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) approaches the peninsula from Cuba. Temperatures this weekend remain in the lower 90s, with heat indices reaching triple digits across South FL.
1219 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A strong and persistent upper level ridge remains parked over the Four Corners region, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast through Saturday. Expect overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s, and some localized areas in the low 80s. By this evening, a weak cold front, helped along by northwest flow aloft over the central Plains, will drop into north Texas.
The high center will be over southern CO, with the ridge axis extending over the High Plains. Similar conditions will return for Saturday, with the ridge axis shifting eastward over the Northern/Central Plains. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be more widespread Saturday afternoon, as a result of the southwest flow aloft and a tighter sfc pressure gradient due to a leeside trough over eastern WY. Sunday will see southwesterly flow across the area, with a trough moving eastward from Idaho into Montana. This trough will clip northern Wyoming, with a cool front dropping in.
A cold front/outflow boundary is resulting in brief and gusty north winds at MAF and perhaps INK. (Today through Sunday afternoon) A composite outflow boundary and cold front is making its way south through the region this morning. Temperatures continue to be hot across the region with high pressure still dominating and warming temperatures aloft. As high pressure continues to build, anticipate high temperatures climbing a degree or two over Saturday.
149 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Low pressure will ride along a stationary front south of the state tonight. Clouds covering most of central PA late this evening as a wave of low pressure translates eastward along stationary front south of the Mason Dixon line. Upper trough swinging southeastward through the Ohio Valley tonight will enhance the shower activity over the southern half of central PA through late tonight and early Saturday, and despite the richest deep layer moisture to be found south of the Mason Dixon line, some local downpours should result INVOF and just north of the stalled front. The warmer places will be the middle of the CWA where the clouds move away just in time for the temps to get a boost into the L80s.
1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Summary: High pressure will result in quiet weather this afternoon through Saturday with some shower and thunderstorm chances arriving late Saturday night and lasting through Sunday night.
252 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure moving off and return flow up the western Dakotas will result in windy conditions today once the low level jet of approximately 30kts at 850mb/25kts at 1/2km mixes out, maintained by a 10mb pressure gradient across the state. Mixing with the front will certainly allow for a quick jump in temperatures back well into the 90s before 'cooler' air stabilizes readings and lower dewpoints advect in.
An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. Elsewhere, the lower valleys of Yavapai County will be very warm again with temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s. The good news is that models remain in decent agreement that the high pressure centered over the southern U.
1241 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain stable conditions across the ArkLaTex overnight.
930 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022 High pressure will be strengthening over the Southwest into the weekend for progressively warmer days.
Elsewhere, isolated showers continue to develop across parts of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi, generally north of the Highway 84 corridor. The area remains sandwiched between the retreating ridge and digging trough on Saturday (in almost a col- like pattern) and remains in a general weakness between these features on Sunday. Where the boundary stalls will play a big role in the rain chances for Sunday with the highest rain chances likely remaining close to the coast in the afternoon.
353 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 (Issued 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022) Today through Sunday: High pressure will settle in from the north today. The high will start shifting to our southeast on Sunday. Increasing southerly winds will usher warmer air and slightly higher dewpoints back into southern WI by the afternoon.
Slightly cooler air has filtered in behind the front, along with a northerly breeze. Temperatures have dropped into the 80s this evening behind the front which is some 5-10 degrees cooler compared to last night.
1034 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 20z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge axis into eastern MT/WY. Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peak as low pressure along lee trough moves into eastern MT. TSRA possible late Saturday night in the far north with gusty northwest winds behind mostly dry cold front Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler in the northwest but near 100F again ahead of the front in the far south.
(This evening through Saturday) A strong and persistent upper level ridge remains parked over the Four Corners region, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast through Saturday. Expect overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s, and some localized areas in the low 80s. By this evening, a weak cold front, helped along by northwest flow aloft over the central Plains, will drop into north Texas.
Showers still linger across far southeastern zones and primarily in the ridges this morning as the antecedent cold front slowly progresses southwards. High pressure will then build across the Great lakes today, ensuring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend. Seasonable highs in the lower 80s are expected this afternoon under slowly clearing skies.