Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
259 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Broad high pressure covers much of the area between the Mississippi Valley and the Mid-Atlantic leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon with just some fairweather cumulus. Lows tonight should mainly be in the 50s, warmer in the downslope areas. As the high continues to slide off to the east and the pressure gradient strengthens, breezy SW flow on its western flank will lead to a warmer day tomorrow with most areas getting into the mid 80s. Quiet and warm weather is expected through mid-week with southerly flow returning to the area as ridging builds into eastern Canada.
211 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A high pressure system slowly moves east bringing dry conditions and light winds.
1238 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions throughout the forecast with little more than few-sct diurnal cumulus and a bit of cirrus arcing northeast into the area tonight/Sunday.
The highest rainfall is expected across the southern counties. Mon through Sat: Deep layer ridging. High pressure builds in Mon with diminishing winds and seas.
1146 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A crossing front will usher in cooler and more comfortable air for the remainder of the weekend. Cold front east of PGH will continue east and be east of the ridges by late afternoon. Broad high pressure will settle in on Sunday.
127 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build over NY and PA through Sunday, bringing plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures.
255 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Not one cloud in the sky today with high pressure firmly in place. The center of the ridge has shifted south which has allowed surface winds to turn southerly. Despite the flow, very low dew points in the 40s are being observed area wide thanks to the source region from the high itself. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely again Sunday with continued breezy south winds, slightly warmer temperatures, and min RH values in the 25-30 percent range.
Effective shear there is on the lower side, maybe 20 to 25 knots.
Patterson (Issued 321 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021) Today through Sunday: High pressure over Wisconsin today will move east tonight into Sunday. The influence of the high will bring a nice period of weather to the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): The 500mb ridge remains parked across the west through the weekend, weakening slightly along the lower Texas coast.
The weather is very quiet across Iowa this afternoon with pleasant surface ridging sliding across the state.
High pressure will be retreating to the northeast, but will still result in pleasant weather across the area. Clear skies and light winds will be common with overnight lows in the low 50s NE to near 60 south.
243 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 (Issued 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021) Tonight and Sunday: High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will gradually move eastward out of the region tonight into Sunday. Seasonal temperatures are expected to continue Sunday with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Subtropical Ridge moves off to the west as an upper level trough over the middle Mississippi Valley digs to the southwest into Texas.
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 At mid afternoon the cold front had slipped into northern Arkansas as northeast winds in its wake have been advecting in drier and more comfortable air. High pressure was centered over the western Great lakes and this will continue of northeast winds and drier air into the region through Sunday.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a moderately amplified flow in place across the Nation, with a ridge of high pressure still anchored over the western third of the country, and a trough over eastern Canada steering the prevailing flow south across the Atlantic coast. This has left our section of the Nation under the influence of a northwest flow, which recently allowed cooler air from Canada to move south, thus resulting in some very pleasant conditions across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri yesterday and today. Thus, expect highs in the low to mid 80s this weekend with lows in the 50s and 60s, depending how far north you are.
309 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Broad high pressure covers much of the area between the Mississippi Valley and the Mid-Atlantic leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon with just some fairweather cumulus. Lows tonight should mainly be in the 50s, warmer in the downslope areas. As the high continues to slide off to the east and the pressure gradient strengthens, breezy SW flow on its western flank will lead to a warmer day tomorrow with most areas getting into the mid 80s. Summery weather will continue through the much of the extended with upper ridging over the eastern U.
1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021 An upper level ridge centered roughly across Nevada and Utah will result in light west to northwest flow aloft. On Sunday, the upper ridge is progged to retrograde westward with light to modest northwest flow aloft. High temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler Sunday in most locations due to an increase in convection and the upper- high sliding westward, but still expecting above average temperatures both days. The dome of high pressure sitting to the west of the area will usher northwest flow over the CWA which will keep the area mostly dry with seasonal temperatures.
With the cold front still N of the area, chances for showers and storms will continue for the weekend.
Models that are correctly simulating today's precipitable water values show an increase on Sunday, linked to an influx from (now) remnants of tropical cyclone Fred and a surface front toward our north. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms should result from the increase in moisture as well as influence from a nearby H5 trough axis and surface confluence in the vicinity of the front and Fred's larger circulation envelope.
133 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A crossing front will usher in cooler and more comfortable air for the remainder of the weekend. Cold front east of PGH will continue east and be east of the ridges by late afternoon. Broad high pressure will settle in on Sunday.
Rain chances will remain on tomorrow as an upper trough continues to slowly shift southward into the region.
The Bermuda pressure ridge remains in place offshore but weaker across central SC. Weak trough over east central Georgia into the Upstate SC. Think storms will focus near the Piedmont and east central Ga near the trough.
Flash flooding will be possible so as always TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! Temperatures will be cooler today with highs into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Late week looks to feature the approach of upper level troughing which should result in increasing precipitation chances.
1239 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021 With broad upper ridging over the western CONUS, upper- level smoke is drifting into northeastern WY and western SD. Surface map shows low pressure to the east, resulting in southerly winds across the CWA - breezy over south central SD. With the nose of the low-level jet pushing into south central SD, storms will be possible in the presence of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
303 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Current 500mb analysis shows a weakness in the ridge across the Gulf Coast States. A flat trough is situated across the Great Lakes and Mid Mississippi River Valley. The western ridge will retrograde a bit tomorrow with the trough over the Middle Mississippi River Valley digging south towards the Gulf States. At the surface, high pressure will continue across the CWA through the period as the western Atlantic ridge tries to build westward.
134 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes with a ridge over the Rockies. The trough will move to New England and a weak trough will develop over the Mississippi River valley with the ridge shifting to the western U. Quiet and warm weather is expected through mid-week with southerly flow returning to the area as ridging builds into eastern Canada.
For Sunday, expect slightly more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage across the area, as the ridge continues to weaken over the area and some weak upper level disturbances track through the area.
The southerly sfc flow and upper ridge will keep the region baking on Sunday with highs mostly in the 90s.
Small chance pops will remain possible overnight tonight across mainly Southeast Oklahoma in relation to the boundary in Northern Texas and a weak upper level trof axis holding over the region. The weak upper level trof axis is forecast to remain over the region Sunday which could again allow for some isolated to scattered convection to be possible during the day.
328 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Cooler and drier air will enter the region tonight into Sunday. High pressure builds in Sunday lasting into midweek with fair weather along with comfortable humidity levels and temperatures in the 70s to 80s.
Models show an upper level trof just west of our region deepening a little overnight.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer with lows in the 50s.
On Thu behind what is left of the tropical system, a weak upper trough will swing by and that will keep the numerous shower/storm development train rolling. But on Fri, weak ridging will build aloft and that will reduce the threat of rain some for the beginning of the weekend. With the low level moisture in place, fog and low cigs will be likely after midnight.
1032 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will remain over the region with dry and hot weather through Sunday.
The next weak wave will move through tomorrow night, perhaps kicking off some showers and storms across the high plains that may track through the area.
1112 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front will finally cross the region this morning, pushing the threat of showers and storms southward and ushering in cooler and more comfortable air. Broad high pressure will settle in on Sunday.
1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Southerly flow will slowly increase today, but humidity values will still remain on the lower side. High pressure will continue to drift east with southerly flow at the surface remaining in place and above about 10 mph most of the night.
Regarding the morning update, the main thing I did was adjust PoPs downward through the remainder of the morning except for the in the higher terrain. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 89 72 85 71 / 40 80 60 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 70 85 70 / 40 70 60 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 71 86 71 83 69 / 40 70 60 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 68 83 68 / 30 60 50 70 50.
The persistent mid/upper ridge will continue to limit convection across the forecast area a little longer while areas farther inland have had to deal with convection on a daily basis. Otherwise, the heat index will not be an issue with high temperatures Sunday a couple degrees cooler than today due to more cloud cover. Mid level ridging, anchored off to the east, will seemingly go nowhere through the period.
With the low level moisture in place, fog and low cigs will be likely after midnight.
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build over NY and PA through Sunday, bringing plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures.
700-500mb temperatures will remain cooler than climatology and these ingredients will favor small chances for late afternoon and early nighttime thunderstorms at various places on the central high plains.
214 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Cold frontal passage brings isolated to scattered storms into Sunday. By Sunday afternoon however, that frontal boundary will linger to our south as high pressure off the coast of the Atlantic pulls in moisture from the deep south. A significant portion of the upper level trof will quickly lift northeast into eastern Canada Sunday leaving behind a weakness.
Made some adjustments to our evening POPs, but agree with previous shift that most of the activity over our area will be later tonight as the low level jet kicks in. Effective shear there is on the lower side, maybe 20 to 25 knots.
658 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will remain centered over Lower Michigan tonight and Sunday, sustaining light winds and mainly clear skies. Pleasant warm day today with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, low humidity and plenty of sunshine from high pressure centered over the Great Lakes.
1014 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build in tonight.
A mid level trough over the Great Lakes and a building ridge over the Desert Southwest putting us on the outer edge of both. Tropical Storm Grace is currently heading towards Puerto Rico and at this time is too far out to forecast what impacts we may see, if any from this cyclone.
1056 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front will slip south of the commonwealth overnight, bring clearing skies from north to south.
The NAM/ECMWF/GFS are in agreement with an upper level pattern characterized by a ridge over the WRN CONUS and a trough developing over the Plains/Mississippi Valley.
Think as the low level jet shifts further east and strengthens later tonight, we may get some of that activity over our southern counties. Made some adjustments to our evening POPs, but agree with previous shift that most of the activity over our area will be later tonight as the low level jet kicks in. Effective shear there is on the lower side, maybe 20 to 25 knots.
451 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A low-amplitude ridge is positioned over the Intermountain West this weekend, with temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal.
720 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front will slip south of the commonwealth overnight, bring clearing skies from north to south.
617 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front will push offshore tonight as high pressure builds in from the west.
635 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Not one cloud in the sky today with high pressure firmly in place. The center of the ridge has shifted south which has allowed surface winds to turn southerly. Despite the flow, very low dew points in the 40s are being observed area wide thanks to the source region from the high itself. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely again Sunday with continued breezy south winds, slightly warmer temperatures, and min RH values in the 25-30 percent range.
736 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the region into this evening. High pressure then builds across the Northeast through the rest of the weekend.
921 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Latest surface analysis is showing a stationary front across northern Arkansas into Kentucky with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes.
929 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build over NY and PA through Sunday, bringing plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures.
Surface heating has led to the development of cumulus in the southern Texas Panhandle, where dewpoints continue to run in the low 60s. Flow aloft becomes north-northwesterly for Sunday as the UT 500mb high shifts westward, with guidance in good agreement that a decent upper trough will approach our forecast area during the late evening hours, albeit with this feature slowing as it approaches.
On Thu behind what is left of the tropical system, a weak upper trough will swing by and that will keep the numerous shower/storm development train rolling. But on Fri, weak ridging will build aloft and that will reduce the threat of rain some for the beginning of the weekend.
635 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A high pressure system slowly moves east bringing dry conditions and light winds.
726 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front will slip south of the commonwealth overnight, bring clearing skies from north to south.
907 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build over NY and PA through Sunday, bringing plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Some patchy cumulus continues to linger over the higher elevations of the Finger Lakes region, but skies will continue to clear through the remainder of the evening while temperatures quickly plummet courtesy of the drier, cooler airmass moving in.
Given the strong southward push of the main outflow boundary, we think things should remain rather quiet overnight despite the high PoPs suggested by some of the global guidance. Some drier mid level air will work in from the northwest through midday and with any remnant boundaries likely to be well south of I-20, we'll have the highest PoPs across our southern counties through the afternoon.
307 PM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A low-amplitude ridge is positioned over the Intermountain West this weekend, with temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal.
633 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build over NY and PA through Sunday, bringing plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Some patchy cumulus continues to linger over the higher elevations of the Finger Lakes region, but skies will continue to clear through the remainder of the evening while temperatures quickly plummet courtesy of the drier, cooler airmass moving in.
/issued 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): The 500mb ridge remains parked across the west through the weekend, weakening slightly along the lower Texas coast.
The area was propagating westward, but has since stalled as its encounters an upper trof over northwest Alabama. Ongoing convection along and north of I-20 was developing in an area ahead of a upper level trof moving in from the northwest.
A weak cold front will cross northern and central Utah Sunday, ushering regional smoke into the area.
736 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Broad high pressure covers much of the area between the Mississippi Valley and the Mid-Atlantic leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon with just some fairweather cumulus. Lows tonight should mainly be in the 50s, warmer in the downslope areas. As the high continues to slide off to the east and the pressure gradient strengthens, breezy SW flow on its western flank will lead to a warmer day tomorrow with most areas getting into the mid 80s. Summery weather will continue through the much of the extended with upper ridging over the eastern U.
910 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure builds in from the west overnight.
804 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 High pressure will build in tonight.
Some patchy fog is certainly possible going into the early morning period given the low T/Td depressions. With the cold front still N of the area, chances for showers and storms will continue for the weekend.
857 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the region into this evening. High pressure then builds across the Northeast through the rest of the weekend.
554 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 At mid afternoon the cold front had slipped into northern Arkansas as northeast winds in its wake have been advecting in drier and more comfortable air. High pressure was centered over the western Great Lakes and this will continue to bring northeast winds and drier air into the region through Sunday.
659 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A weak trough of low pressure aloft is sliding slowly southeast across the region this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are occurring with daytime heating along and to the southeast of the trough axis. Coverage should decrease with the loss of daytime heating, though some low end shower and storm potential will persist into tonight in advance of the trough axis across west central AR into southeast OK. Small chance pops will remain possible overnight tonight across mainly Southeast Oklahoma in relation to the boundary in Northern Texas and a weak upper level trof axis holding over the region. The weak upper level trof axis is forecast to remain over the region Sunday which could again allow for some isolated to scattered convection to be possible during the day.
202 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A cold front will cross the area tonight, then stall over the Carolinas Sunday and Monday. Several waves of low pressure will move along this boundary, resulting in unsettled weather conditions through mid week. Cold front situated just N of the FA. Cooler as the high to the north keeps an onshore flow going thru the period. Ridge aloft will remain over the Southeast U.
Have decided to upgrade to a RED FLAG WARNING for both Sunday and Monday with the overall dry conditions and breeziness associated with our incoming cold front on Monday. Cold front arrives Monday night and brings a big pattern change.
257 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and sern U. this morning with a trough in New England and a weak trough trailing into the upper Great Lakes. The ridge moves into the Rockies and a weak trough moves into the Mississippi River valley. Summery weather will continue through the much of the extended with upper ridging over the eastern U.
330 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 (Issued 330 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021) Today through Monday: High pressure over lower Michigan will slowly move to the east today into Monday.
141 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure builds in from the west overnight.
Tonight Through Monday High pressure aloft continues from the Gulf of Mexico into the western U. The upper trough remains over the eastern Great Lakes and is sagging southward. The trough will continue its southward expansion into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight and Sunday. A cold front is stalled near the Missouri border and will begin moving slowly south on Sunday. As several short waves move through, the highest rain chances Sunday and Monday will be in the southern half of the state ahead of the cold front.
224 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Early this morning, the cold front has pushed into central Arkansas with a high pressure center over northern Illinois leading to pleasant conditions this morning across the area as lows bottom out in the upper 50s over the eastern Ozarks and low to mid 60s over the remainder of the CWA. The aforementioned high pressure will also keep the weather dry and quiet for today and tonight with mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and similar low temperatures tonight to what we will experience this morning.
and Monday Quiet weather and dry conditions will continue through the early part of the work week as a high pressure system drifts off to the east. The high moving off to the east will mean a slight increase in the pressure gradient, and therefore the winds during the daytime with gusts as high as 15 mph.
132 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A cold front continues to push south through the region into this evening. High pressure then builds across the Northeast through the rest of the weekend.
1233 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Broad high pressure covers much of the area between the Mississippi Valley and the Mid-Atlantic leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon with just some fairweather cumulus. Lows tonight should mainly be in the 50s, warmer in the downslope areas. As the high continues to slide off to the east and the pressure gradient strengthens, breezy SW flow on its western flank will lead to a warmer day tomorrow with most areas getting into the mid 80s. Summery weather will continue through the much of the extended with upper ridging over the eastern U.
257 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary in the Plains. Pleasant conditions will continue today and tonight as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Upper level trof is expected to move out of the area leading to more SW flow for our area. A trof digs into the western CONUS to start the week. This trof is expected to move across our area later in the week.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Troughing aloft will remain in place the next two to three days.
Increase in southwest flow under the large scale deformation eventually allows Gulf Moisture to be drawn northward contributing to what will become a dirty ridge. High pressure gradually drifts eastward throughout the day, continuing to bring dry weather to the central Great Lakes for the remainder of the weekend. Weak surface gradient limits winds to below 15 kts, while southerly winds prevail on the back side of the high pressure center.
306 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 A weak high pressure center in the Upper midwest is keeping weak ridging in the region. As such, kept POPs on the low side to compensate.