Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Trough at 500 mb last evening stretched from western MT into eastern OR. Water vapor loop early this morning showed that the 500 mb trough mentioned earlier had progressed a little to the east and a vort max was moving toward western WY.
High pressure will remain in place at the surface and aloft tonight. These will then begin to shift eastward on Saturday as a trough and associated low pressure system swing across the Plains and approach the forecast area on Saturday night. Once any fog dissipates Saturday, warm weather and partly cloudy skies are in store with highs in the low 80s.
We could see a brief mix of warmer temperatures just ahead of advanced cold front later today, and with a mild start in the 50s, have raised temperatures up a bit today. Broad and transitory ridge/height rises aloft will keep rain chances at bay, and likely until next Saturday at the earliest. Though sunny, temperatures will start coolish Sunday, but the rest of the week is pleasant with highs in the lower/middle 70s in general, or roughly 5-8 degrees above normal afternoon high temperatures on average. Things change in the afternoon as surface cold front plows through.
This looks to be a result of the upper high sliding eastward and bringing in additional low moisture to the area. The upper trough that will bring a cold front through the area Sunday will slide eastward from the Plains into the Great Lakes region. Severe parameters still look weak attm, with shear and MUCAPE on the low end, but some stronger cells can not be ruled out in the afternoon.
The focus for today will be the development of a low pressure system in the Central Plains. The low pressure system is expected to develop today in response to a strong vort max and upper level trough that is expected to emerge in the Central Plains today. The low will gradually strengthen as the day wears on, and especially tonight, as it moves to Lake Michigan by midnight tonight. Cooler air in the wake of the low pressure system will bring below normal temperatures for Sunday, with highs largely in the 40s. There will be a couple weak cold fronts passages early in the week, but too dry to support precipitation.
Can't rule out tying or even breaking some records in the lower 90s.
High pressure at both the surface and aloft, will yet again yield quiet conditions over the forecast area as we begin the weekend.
505 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Mid level Pacific moisture and low layer Gulf moisture continue to stream across the area today keeping the area nice and juicy ahead of an upper level trough. Upper level trough, currently situated north of the Four Corners area, will drive a Canadian surface cold front through the area later this evening. Generally speaking storms will start out in the NW corner of the CWA and translate southeastward before being over run by the Canadian cold front. Convection should quickly come to an end as the cold front sweeps through the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop with highs Sunday not expected to get out of the 60s area wide.
A strong but neutral to slightly positively tilted trough will move across the center of the country Saturday. This will help push the quasi stationary front through the area as a strong cold front. Strong forcing along the front and large scale ascent associated with the upper trough should be more than enough to get storms going. If updrafts orient orthogonal to the 0-3km shear vectors it would greatly enhance the environment for mesovortices and a few tornadoes, given the higher helicity values. Behind the front, much cooler air will settle over the region.
Precipitation associated with cold front currently over the eastern half of the forecast area should end by at least the mid-afternoon today. High pressure will continue to build on Mon, so light wind and warming to above normal temperatures will also continue.
208 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure off the New England coast will continue off to the east. Temperatures will rebound to well above average for mid October this weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front.
416 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 (Today and Tonight) A cold front and associated good chance of thunderstorms are the main concerns for the short term forecast. We should see temperatures climb into the lower 90s, with breezy afternoon conditions. A cold front will then move southward quickly late tonight, bringing a good chance of thunderstorms, with a few marginally severe across the northern Big Country. Behind the front, we will see cloudy skies, strong north winds, and noticeably cooler temperatures in the 50s.
Strongest forcing will likely remain near and south of the ND/SD border (water vapor imagery indicates upper level trough/circulation over Idaho (09z), propagating eastward). As the main upper level trough progresses eastward Sunday large scale subsidence is expected across the area, giving way to clearing skies from west to east throughout the day.
Early Saturday morning the area remains bisected by a warm front that extends out of southwestern KS and northeastward through northeastern MO. These impulses are forecast to move northeastward over the front through the day today, before the larger scale upper trof moves off the central Rockies and drives a coldfront through the forecast area this evening and overnight. As the upper trof approaches and area undergoes some resultant cooling in the mid levels, the increase in instability and continued strong winds in the column will make strong to severe storms possible along the front as it moves through generally in the 4pm to midnight window. Winds will decrease through out the day and highs reach the lower 60s with mostly sunny skies.
At the surface, the inverted trough is over western SD. CAM solutions have been consistent over the past several hours in showing a large increase in showers across central SD between 12Z and 15Z this morning, as synoptic scale lift increases with the approaching upper trough.
A weak warm front will bring a chance of light rain to the Olympic Peninsula and areas near the Canadian border this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, expect the warmest day of the forecast period with highs topping out in the low 80s. Will note that the low level jet does get into the 40-45 knot range over southern IN as it responds to a 120+ knot upper jet, so can't totally rule out a gusty shower or brief t-storm in that area.
Highs are expected to range from the mid 80s across the Hill Country to the lower 90s east of Interstate 35 and the southwest part of South Central Texas. Clouds return this evening as well as patchy to areas of fog in advance of a cold front coming into our area from the north. The cold front is expected to arrive between 6 and 7 am Sunday to the northern part of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. All HiRes models bring a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the area with activity decreasing as it pushes to the south and dry and cooler airmass mixes down.
High pressure will shift south Sunday allowing a cold front to approach Sunday night.
A cold front is expected to move through S TX Sunday. A prefrontal trough will shift winds to the north by mid Sunday morning ahead of the cooler/drier airmass. As the cooler air and associated high pressure system pushes across the CWA through Sunday afternoon, the northerly winds will strengthen to mod levels and usher drier conditions slowly across S TX. Have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through 12Z Sunday to cover the high tides overnight and into early Sunday morning. Am expecting tide levels to lower behind the cold front due to the strengthening offshore winds on Sunday.
146 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A weak surface boundary just south of the CSRA will weaken through tonight as ridging overtakes the region. High pressure will be over the region through the weekend resulting in dry weather.
Winds will shift out of the west and northwest today as a Pacific cold front crosses western areas. Tonight, a back door cold front will plunge southwestward through the eastern plains with north and northeast wind gusts in the 30 to 45 kt range close to the TX border. On Saturday, a Pacific cold front will slide through the state, with it's back door counterpart sliding through the plains on Saturday night. All-in-all, this will result in cooler temperatures for Sunday, especially across the plains. This modest moisture plume will be stretched thin as it is pushed southeastward on Saturday from an upper level trough moving across the central Rockies. However, it will be turning cooler, particularly across the northwest, as a Pacific front moves into NM.
/issued 837 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ A sprawling area of high pressure covering the southeastern U. and northern Gulf combined with an inverted trough over the southern Gulf will maintain a moderate deep layered northeast to easterly wind flow across the forecast area the remainder of tonight. It will be a very mild night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. A 4-5MB pressure gradient from KMFL to KJAX courtesy of high pressure over the southeastern U. and northern Gulf and an inverted trough over the southeast and southern Gulf will maintain a breezy northeast to easterly wind flow over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight with winds in the 15 to 20 knot range expected over most of the waters.
Increasing southwest winds this weekend ahead of a cold front will bring warmer and sunnier weather this weekend. The cold front will move through Sunday afternoon and evening with rain showers. Tomorrow flow shifts and increases mixing out some of the low level moisture. As ceilings drop to below 1000 feet added patchy fog to the higher elevations late tonight. After cold front passes temperatures at 850mb will be cool enough for some lake effect rain showers in west/northwest flow.
Upper level ridging will remain across the area through the period. While low stratus noted across much of the forecast area, the low level moisture remains shallow similar to yesterday morning. An upper-level longwave trough currently centered over the Pacific Northwest will move over the eastern U.
An area of moisture on the southern side of a broad mid-level high pressure today will move northward into central Texas with mainly dry conditions over our area behind it on Saturday.
Sharp upper trough was working through Idaho early this morning and will quickly swing across Wyoming today.
Strong mid/upper high will remain in place today across the southeast US.
225 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The big feature in the short term forecast is obviously, the cold front and its passage. The air behind the front is cooler and much drier.
426 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Current surface analysis places high pressure over southern Saskatchewan with inverted trough/frontal boundary stretching through the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough stretching from the Canadian plains towards central Idaho. The focus then shifts towards south central North Dakota into the James River Valley as the upper trough axis swoops through the area, providing enhanced lift with rain developing through the morning, continuing into the afternoon. Rain will then taper from west to east later in the afternoon into the early evening as trough slides off to the east and ridging starts to build in. Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry conditions to the forecast through much of the week.
As an upper trough bulldozes its way across the center of the country today through tonight, it'll trigger cyclogenesis and give the stalled aforementioned front a revitalization and the kick start it needs to continue its progress through MO. Behind this system, high pressure will settle into the region by the start of the new week, and benign weather will dominate through the remainder of the traditional work week.
an upper level trough centered near southwest Wyoming/northeast Utah early this morning is forecast to move into the forecast area by mid to late afternoon and exiting the area by midnight. Will have extensive low cloudiness and areas of fog this morning ahead of approaching cold front. Temperatures likely will fall from west to east during the afternoon as the cold front arrives. Should see afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
It will be cooler, with highs only ranging from 60 to 70F, warmest southeast. Strengthening southwest flow into tonight and Saturday in advance of a potent upper trough ejecting east into the Northern Rockies and High Plains will result in unseasonably mild temperatures into tomorrow. This will also help to transport moisture into a developing/leading baroclinic zone from Iowa east-northeast into the Lower/Central Great Lakes. This will force a strong trailing cold front through later Saturday night/Sunday morning with gusty winds and chances for a period of rain across the entire forecast area.
Northwestern parts of the forecast area are going to be close to freezing temperatures but should stay above freezing. In the upper levels, a trough will pass through central parts of CONUS today. An associated cold front will begin to pass through the forecast area late this afternoon/early evening. There isn't a lot of instability around until later this afternoon ahead of the cold front, so thunderstorm chances will be limited until later today, but really the higher amounts of instability are across southeastern parts of the forecast area. Temperatures behind the front will get down into the low to mid 30s for a good portion of the forecast area Saturday night. Northwestern parts of the forecast area will be close to freezing but currently do not have any freezing temps in the forecast.
I cold front is stretched southward along the trough axis and will move through Central AL by Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.
440 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Main concerns for today include expected Red Flag conditions and strong winds, and for tonight the potential for freezing temps over portions of the southeast plains. An upper level trof will move across CO today and this evening, then exiting the state overnight. The forecast models keep the weather dry across southeast and south central CO, however they do show some showers getting close to the higher elevations of Lake county. Strong winds are currently being reported over the high mtn areas and passes, but later this morning gusty winds will work their way down into the lower elevations, especially over the I-25 corridor and the high valleys. Then as the upper trof moves acrs the area, the winds will become northwest and north, and will be quite strong this afternoon and evening.
An upper ridge will remain in place over the area through tonight. At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the east. A deep layer subsident airmass under this upper ridge will keep the area dry today. With the upper ridge overhead, temps will remain well above normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Then as the low continues by late evening, moving into southern WI, it will pull cold front east over southeast IA and MO. High pressure will be in control of weather pattern through the week. Higher chances for thunderstorms will arrive late in the forecast period as the cold front approaches from the northwest, and included predominant SHRA with VCTS starting 00Z at KPIA, 01Z at KBMI-KSPI, and 03Z at KDEC-KCMI.
Then as the low continues by late evening, moving into southern WI, it will pull cold front east over southeast IA and MO. High pressure will be in control of weather pattern through the week.
1204 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 18z water vapor imagery indicated cwa under fast WSW flow between trough over the PAC NW and southern plains ridge. At the sfc, cold front was well to the south of the area and was located roughly along a KCNC to KPTT line with high pressure building into the area. For tonight, warm air advection will increase as lee trough and low level jet intensify through the evening. On Saturday, cold front will quickly advance across the area during the afternoon hours.
617 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Ridge of high pressure across the area will remain in place through the weekend providing mostly clear skies and light winds.
Will see mainly VFR conditions Today in advance of a cold front that will move through the region Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are set to impact the area TAF sites Tonight as the cold front moves through the region. A limited severe threat will be possible north of Interstate 44 early this evening where surface based instability will be the highest.
Heightened fire weather concerns as northerly winds increase across interior NorCal behind the trough moving east.
142 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure will continue north of the area through Sunday.
This front will get a push as an upper level trough comes into phase with the surface front. The positive tilt to the upper level trough will keep the front progressive as it moves through the state. Skies will clear rapidly as the winds pick up as high pressure builds into the region.
These areas include the Grand Valley including the Grand Junction vicinity, the Utah Grand Flat including Arches NP and Moab, and the lower elevations of SE UT along the Colorado River including Canyonlands and Natural Bridges.
345 AM PDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Cold front moving south through the region today. High pressure will build over the Great Basin with increasing offshore flow and gusty winds across Kern County with very dry conditions on Sunday.
146 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Clouds will be on the increase tonight and Saturday as a cold front slowly moves toward the region.
219 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Positively-tilted upper trough is pushing into the Rockies, and satellite is showing an increase of clouds across the region. Precipitation and gusty winds are expected today as the trough quickly moves through the region. Behind this trough, broad upper ridging will build over the western and central CONUS, and then transition into zonal flow midweek. A cold front will move through late tonight into Saturday morning bringing gusty northwest winds along with areas MVFR CIGS in -shra that will last through the day Saturday.
Clouds will gradually move eastward into the Northland ahead of a developing low pressure system arriving on Saturday. Have lowered min temps in climatologically cool areas, some as cold as the low 20s, where winds should subside for several hours overnight. The main story will be Saturday night into Sunday morning as a deepening low pressure crosses Wisconsin and creates a deformation zone across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. The latest model trends have warmed the lower atmosphere a smidge which should be enough to reduce snowfall accumulations. Afterwards, high pressure builds in for a string of beautiful fall weather days. As low pressure moves into Iowa, models indicate some timing with the beginning of the rain.
Non-diurnal temperatures are expected today associated with strong cold air advection from a Pacific cold front. Temperatures across Sheridan county should remain in the 40s today while Scntl Neb rises into the lower 60s this afternoon. The would place the highest wind gust potential across Nern Colo and Far southwest Neb/Nwrn KS.
Trends in the high res models seem to support stalling the frontal boundary in my CWA with the northward movement of the front less certain to occur.
An inverted trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning will continue to push west through the Gulf this weekend. Deep moisture associated with the inverted trough will linger across southwest Florida today, although drier air will filter into the northern half of the forecast area.
Today Through Sunday Night One more unseasonably warm day expected acrs AR today as high pressure aloft remains in place over the region. Looking at highs today in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Much cooler and drier air wl advect into the area to close out the weekend.
Abnormally mild and summer-like on Sunday ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Sunday night. High pressure then dominates for the work week with dry weather and near seasonable temperatures, though with gradual warming by late in the week. The trough shifts east Saturday and Saturday night. Guidance blend for high temps, which is cooler than the previous forecast, looked good considering the anticipated cloud cover. Details: Southwest flow ahead of the cold front is fairly strong with gusts likely into the mid to upper 20's (mph) range on Sunday with highest gusts across the coast. Winds shift to Northwest overnight with the passage of the cold front.
A cold front will be approaching the NWRN counties near the end of this TAF period. Tonight Through Sunday High pressure continues over the area with mainly clear skies over the area. The cold front approaches the area on Saturday night and moves through the state Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday.
158 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley will weaken Saturday. A low will move northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday pulling a cold front through the area.
The ridge stretches southwestward into PA and toward the Carolinas and E TN with easterly flow into AL around it. In the upper levels, we have a 594 DAM ridge stretching from TX to AL. A little weak afternoon shower activity has popped up in the far SE counties of C AL thanks to ripples around the upper ridge and record breaking October afternoon heating.
217 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure off the New England coast will continue off to the east. Temperatures will rebound to well above average for mid October this weekend as a southwest flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front.
A fairly strong cold front will enter the northern zones including KGUY towards the end of the period. /Issued 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ A cold front has slowly pushed into the area today and will back up tonight. Cimarron County may experience freezing temps again, but have held off on a freeze watch for now as it doesn't look like the freezing temps will hit even half of the county.
338 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure will continue north of the area through Sunday.
A cold front then moves through from west to east Sunday night followed by building high pressure that will remain over the area through late week. With the loss of diurnal heating and strengthening inversion, expect the redevelopment of patchy drizzle, fog and rain as a warm front approaches the area overnight. By late morning or early afternoon on Sunday, the warm front will shift north of the area allowing for deeper mixing and perhaps scattering of clouds, particularly west of NYC. Although overnight temperatures will initially start out above normal, a cold front will move through from west to east allowing a sharp decrease in temperatures, though stronger winds will likely hinder temperatures from lowering to climatological values despite the cooler and drier air mass.
Will maintain dry weather today as high pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the region. The approach of a frontal boundary and the shifting of the upper ridge eastward will allow increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Will see westerly surface flow during the day and some decent heating as warm advection increases and expect temperatures around 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday.
For the short term period, a typical summertime pattern continues over Florida with the upper level ridge extending from Bermuda southwest over the Bahamas and southern Florida. To the northwest, deep troughing extends from the Great Lakes region south through Tennessee, Alabama and into the central Gulf of Mexico. At that time, the big weather concern will be the strength of the ridge and location of the trough and how those features affect the steering pattern of Hurricane Irma which will be located near the Bahamas. Subtropical high pressure near Bermuda ridging west-southwest over west central and southwest Florida and another area of high pressure to the northwest will influence the weather through the week with northeast winds and typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be seasonal with daytime highs in the low 90's.