Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
532 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015 Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the lower to middle 30s as of this morning. The coolest air temperatures remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing drizzle/rain remains possible. Primary concern will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing. Highs will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Lows will fall into the single digits to the lower teens.
651 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN FILTER ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. AN UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
433 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015 COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS ELEVATED RESTRICTING RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST INTO THIS WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT ON TOP OF WEST TEXAS PERHAPS EXPANDING A BIT WESTWARD THOUGH NOT BY MUCH.
403 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
417 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE REGION.
303 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY TONIGHT INOT EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
AND FRIDAY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 7 PM AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
342 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS. EXCEPT FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
237 AM PDT Thu Mar 12 2015 Dry and warmer weather returns today through Friday under upper level high pressure.
500 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ANY DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED OVER 35 MPH ALONG THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC/SW MN. EARLY MORNING TEMPS ALONG THE RIDGE HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S. ITS ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS ALOFT IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE W.
THESE WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AS A SURFACE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF. ANOTHER SURGE IN WARMER AIR IS ON THE WAY HOWEVER.
215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
A weak cold front pushed south through the area yesterday, but the drier air in its wake has not really reached southeast Illinois yet. Expect high temperatures today to be similar to or perhaps a touch cooler than yesterday. Slightly cooler air filtered into the area behind yesterday's cold front. East-central and especially southeast Illinois also have one other consideration that may make them a bit cooler today. The ECMWF has pushed the low center further north in the last run, being far more generous with the qpf. A for now as some inconsistency in the northern extent of the higher precip.
This will push a backdoor cold front into the forecast area from the north and northeast during the afternoon.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WL LEAD TO HIGH PRESSURE BECMG RE-ESTABLISHED OVER/NEAR THE STATE. SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK. ESE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WIND SPEEDS BECOMING NEAR BREEZY. UPPER ENERGY NORTHWARD WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AT LEAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. AFTER CLEARING OF SOME GROUND FOG NEAR THE LOWER SPOTS EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH ISOLD SHRA MNLY ALONG AND N OF A LINE FM ISM-TTS FM 12/17Z-13/01Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE TROUGH WEAKENS.
406 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST IS REINFORCING AN ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HELD AT BAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST - THE HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
112 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
357 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS ENERGY WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE WAVE TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL ACTUALLY MAXIMIZE THE COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT AND PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOULD HAVE A COOLER START WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY A TOUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS.
Upper low slowly drifting ashore across TX and LA will spread moisture and widespread rain into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tonight and Friday. This system has trended a bit slower than earlier models had indicated, and therefore doesn't look like it will have time for rain to get much further north or west than a Harrisonville- Carrollton-Macon line before a cold front shunts moisture to the east Friday evening.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL ALSO BRING AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 00Z.
325 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PLEASANT A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TOMORROW. THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RESIDE.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WESTERN MN TODAY. STRONG SFC SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE WEST RESULTING IN LOW RH ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE HIGHER RISK OF GRASS FIRES TODAY.
400 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING LOOKING AT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FORCE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
The increasing clouds will affect temperatures with northern and northwest counties likely to be a few degrees warmer versus far southern MO, but all areas will still be above normal for this time of year.
402 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY.
226 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PATTERN OF SUBTROPICAL DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER AND NOT AS HUMID AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BREEZE WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NE.
312 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD WITH AN UPPER TROF FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY.
449 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A TYPICALLY NICE SPRING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DRAGGING A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEST THURSDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
637 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A TYPICALLY NICE SPRING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE EXPANSION OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS FARTHER NORTH FROM THE COAST.
116 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
411 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH MORNING FOG BURNING OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRIDE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS PD. OTRWS KEPT W/PRIOR TEMPS WHICH REFLECT WARMER BIAS WEIGHTING VS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER SPLIT MOS BLEND AS MUCH OF SNOWPACK HAS MELTED OUT NOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
330 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN STRONGLY TODAY AND THEN OUT TOMORROW. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER. UP NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS PARKED JUST TO THE WEST.
317 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 A WK AND DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT WITH ONLY WK QG ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AHEAD OF THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING AS MAIN PRECIP AREA SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CO AND NEW MEXICO.
416 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE CSRA.
/ISSUED 259 PM PDT WED MAR 11 2015/ WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND BRING AN END TO SHOWERS.
623 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR SKY BELOW 10K FT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS PROCESS WILL NUDGE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE DOWN A NOTCH RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. CONFLUENCE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND MUCH HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH CUTOFF ENERGY OVER TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER DUE TO LAKE SHADOWING WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUED MOISTENING OF AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND RAINFALL DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MUCH COOLER THAN AREAS WEST OF MADISON. MEDIUM WARM DAY AHEAD WITH MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THERMAL RIDGE LAID OUT ACROSS SRN WI WITH 925 TEMPS FROM 9C TO 12C.
1221 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ A SATURATED AND WARM AIRMASS PREVAILS TONIGHT DESPITE THE PASSAGE/STALLING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION CHANGE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU (NE AL/S MIDDLE TN). AS A RESULT, WILL ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THAT POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE.
620 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY.
640 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
659 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
Perhaps a couple hundredths to the lowlands and maybe a tenth of an inch to the mountains of north Idaho overnight. Skies will clear after mid day Thursday as high pressure builds back into the area.
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE REGION.
Morning lows tomorrow will again be in the lower 40s under mostly clear skies. (Friday through next Thursday) A persistent but weak upper trough will remain over the Southern Plains through the upcoming weekend.
A WARM 850MB POCKET OF 12C+ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND TEMPS A BIT COOLER IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AREA REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
349 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
124 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
239 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
212 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER TODAY DUE TO A GENERALLY COLDER AIRMASS THAN TODAY.
352 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH MORNING FOG BURNING OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRIDE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS PD. OTRWS KEPT W/PRIOR TEMPS WHICH REFLECT WARMER BIAS WEIGHTING VS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER SPLIT MOS BLEND AS MUCH OF SNOWPACK HAS MELTED OUT NOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
THIS PROCESS WILL NUDGE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE DOWN A NOTCH RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. CONFLUENCE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND MUCH HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH CUTOFF ENERGY OVER TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER DUE TO LAKE SHADOWING WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HAS HELPED. DURING THE DAY TODAY THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE OVER ARIZONA. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
447 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTHEAST MT WITH TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NE AND WEAK COOL FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MT. LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CWA AS PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
633 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SO THIS GIVES SOME CREDENCE AS WELL TO SELECTING A WARMER SOLUTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 40F AND COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BURN OFF QUICKLY COME DAYBREAK AND TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THE RIDGE AXIS RUNS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE NNE AND WILL GRADUALLY TILT FURTHER EASTWARD.
SUGGESTING THAT ENHANCED NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP PUSHING COOLER AIR S FROM NE TX AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER. WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER NAM/ECMWF BASED GUIDANCES FOR TEMPS EAST OF I-35.
524 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY TONIGHT INOT EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
351 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
245 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ANY DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
319 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND FIRE WEATHER IN REGARDS TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WITH THE FIRST LOCATED OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN AND THE SECOND NEAR BEACH NORTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE THE LATTER LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW AS IT SHIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 15Z. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY. THERMAL TROUGH IN THE H85-H5 LAYER.
/ISSUED 332 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015/ TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY FALLEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID-STATE EARLIER. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SATURATED UP TO 850MB MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THUS AM THINKING A LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BACKROADS AND BRIDGES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
500 MB RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAIN.
924 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A MID- UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN SUBSIDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW. AFOREMENTIONED WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
621 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015 AT H5 TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BRINGING DENSE FOG AS FAR WEST AS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. DRAGGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND. AND WITH SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVED FURTHER EAST WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO BROKEN BOW. WARMER 40S TO THE SOUTHWEST AND 30S TO THE NORTHEAST.
CLEAR SKIES ABOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS AS LOW TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGING PATTERN REMAINS IN CONTROL. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LOW 40S IN THE HIGHER HILL COUNTRY. EXPECT AMPLE SUN AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH UPPER 70S AND ISOLATED 80S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS.