Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Even Northwest Mississippi stayed in the lower 90s this afternoon as the upper ridge never quite became strong enough over the area. With the upper ridge retreating southward, would not be surprised if some of the convection moves into northern areas of the Mid-South by mid-morning. Meanwhile, the cold front will sink southward to the MO/AR and TN/KY border by late Friday Night.
1234 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
As it is, higher RH in the low levels may result in some patchy fog NW of the IL River Valley, but locally winds may mitigate that as well. Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the day Friday with the best chances east of I-55 ahead of a cold front trailing southwestward across central IL from low pressure centered over northern Michigan. The system will move eastward during the day dragging the cold front into southeastern Illinois by evening. Warm and humid conditions to continue Friday especially south of I-70 where temperatures in the low 90s will combine with dewpoints in the low 70s for heat index around 100 degrees.
627 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 After the last night storms system exited the region this morning, short wave ridging moved over the region. Strong southerly winds were helping to keep some of the low level moisture from pooling across the region but also was aiding in bringing additional Gulf moisture into the region. One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region.
Strong, deep ridge over the region will inhibit convective potential and the best chance for storm development will be over the inland counties where boundaries interact. Expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue in the mid 90s (few upper 90s) with a little relief at the coast due to onshore breeze development. Ridge axis shifts a bit further south on Fri.
Winds are still expected to be out of the north to northeast at KDHT and KGUY due to a weak cold front, although timing could be slightly off due to impacts from thunderstorms. /Issued 615 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/ Upper level ridge that has been in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles for the past several days has shifted slightly to the south and east throughout the day today. Friday the ridge breaks down further to allow a cold front to enter the Panhandles.
A trough is pushing across the northern plains. At the sfc a weak cold front is drifting across central Nebraska with a few isolated storms that have developed along the front. A secondary boundary/weak cold front is moving across northwest Nebraska and has had some showers/sprinkles all day along it. The main cold front has pushed east of the CWA with the more active weather expected east of the area. Decreasing clouds in the wake of the second boundary will somewhat drier air in association with a high pressure will allow for temps to fall into the 50s. The low level jet appear weak with only a slight chance overnight from southwest into the eastern zones.
persistent strong southerly flow across the nearshore Gulf waters over the past week has led to significant upwelling of cooler waters /per area observations and NASA SPoRT SST data/.
Clouds/precipitation will have significant impact on temperatures as well, with some days warmer/some cooler than initialization grids.
Latest RAP has +13 degrees at 700 mbars with even warmer temps to the west.
1121 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Low pressure will move east of the region tonight. High pressure will build in Friday.
Deep layer ridging south of the area has maintained WSW flow through most of the column today.
Mostly clear skies generally are expected tonight as high pressure builds over the region. Lows still look to range from the lower to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast and beaches. With subsidence from the ridge still affecting the area, am expecting temps for Friday to continue to be above seasonal (low to mid 90s, generally). Inland, with the soupy airmass easing a bit, temps closer, but still above seasonal expected (mid 70s inland to around 80 along the immediate coast) As the drier airmass continues to filter north over the northern Gulf coast from over the Gulf, the moisture part of the instability equation continues to be on the low side and with the loss off instability to counteract the subsidence of the upper ridge, the chance of pops remains low.
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the forecast area as low pressure across the Pacific Northwest keeps the monsoon flow at bay.
/ISSUED / Upper ridging over the state and weakness from Arkansas extending down into SETX. Upper ridge splits and shifts west and east maintaining the break and leading to a little more moisture spreading into the area Sat.
839 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Little change to the forecast needed, as the large 595 dm midlevel ridge continues to sit over Texas, and at the surface, onshore flow continues between high pressure to the east and lower pressure over West Texas. /ISSUED / Upper ridging over the state and weakness from Arkansas extending down into SETX. Upper ridge splits and shifts west and east maintaining the break and leading to a little more moisture spreading into the area Sat.
Dewpoints also slow to rise, with Concordia at this hour still at 66F while southern areas increasing into the low 70s.
1027 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland.
An unseasonably cold low pressure system will move through the region over the weekend for cool temperatures and more rain showers some of which could produce moderate rainfall amounts. Maybe it's due to the amount of dry air in the low levels and not much in the way of measureable pcpn is expected.
Weak sfc trof and assoc plume of higher PWATs supporting a band of sct shra/tsra across the I-80 corridor at 00z. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the lower to mid 70s southeast. Still looking for heat indices to approach advisory criteria over portions of the lower Susq River Valley on Friday.
1219 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An upper trough will exit the Carolina coast by sunrise this morning.
943 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Update A low pressure system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight.
The ridge will remain over the area which will suppress anything other than a few fair weathe cumulus. Going into Friday, the ridge axis will shift to the east, which will bring southwest flow back to the Northern Rockies.
TFJ Upper ridging is quickly building in to the treasure state on the heels of an exiting low. This ridging will make for dry conditions tonight, and warming temperatures. High temps on Friday will be a good 10 degrees warmer then today.
Better chances over nrn Minnesota and nw Wisconsin closer to the dynamics of the mid-level trough. Could see a few showers in the north as cooler air approaches from the north.
746 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Aviation A low pressure system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight.
743 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland.
This lowers confidence somewhat for tonight into Friday, but models are consistent showing a weak cold front moving slowly south across our region Friday into Friday night.
Tonight Through Friday West to southwest winds will increase ahead of a pacific low pressure trough along the west coast of the Pacific Northwest as it moves inland and approaches Wyoming through Friday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 98 74 94 / 10 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 93 74 91 / 20 40 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 94 75 91 / 20 40 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 71 88 / 30 50 60 20.
845 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
938 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Weak high pressure will drift offshore tonight.
Short range models also showing maybe some isolated showers and thunderstorms potentially across the eastern half of the Highland Rim and Upper Cumberland Regions through the night time hours with other locations remaining relatively dry. All of this in a quasi nwly zonal flow pattern aloft and ridging influences across the eastern Gulf of Mexico region continuing to usher in a warm and humid airmass to our region.
1015 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 A warm front will lift north overs the area tonight. Low pressure will move across the northern and central Great Lakes Friday and Friday night.
A warm and muggy evening is on tap with temps as of 9pm still in the lower to upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weak high pressure is slowly building eastward at the surface with mid-level ridging strengthening overnight. Lows were touched up slightly based on the current obs and the lows we reached last night. LN (Issued 225 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016) Another hot and humid day across the TN valley with temps at 2 pm in the low 90s with near 70 dewpoints. Friday, another hot day as a flat upper ridge builds across the area.
A subtropical ridge remains centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico which is helping to maintain a hot and humid airmass over the CWA with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure looks to dominate across the region through the period. The broad mid/upper ridge which has persisted over the Deep South/North Gulf is forecast to break down slightly by this weekend, allowing weak disturbances which were previously being shunted around the CWA to have greater influence through the period.
(Issued 225 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016) Another hot and humid day across the TN valley with temps at 2 pm in the low 90s with near 70 dewpoints. Friday, another hot day as a flat upper ridge builds across the area.
Upper trough moving into the Pac NW will push a cold front through southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today. Trailing upper trough will keep a chance of snow showers in the mountains tonight into Wednesday though little accumulation is expected.
Dewpoint temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 50s this afternoon, so have leaned in that range for subsequent low temperatures tonight. Models seem to be underestimating the lows tonight, only falling into the lower 60s, so have undercut most numbers by a cat or two and set lows in the mid to upper 50s.
626 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper level low exits northern mountains by dawn.
warmer. This trend will continue for the remainder of the work week as upper level ridging builds over the area providing subsidence and lots of sunshine.
Upper ridge over the region will push east today as trof off the west coast digs toward northern California. Southwest flow out of the trof will continue to spread moisture northward toward Montana maintaining cloudy skies today. Energy in the west coast trof is expected to split as it moves onshore today.
Morning TBW sounding shows that the lower levels have become much drier in wake of frontal passage.
1046 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper level low exits northern mountains by dawn.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer as opposed to yesterday with highs today in the mid 70s with light winds.
919 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move east and an associated weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
/issued 333 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ An upper-level high pressure ridge will slide east from the desert southwest toward West Texas today. At the surface, a weak trough extending from KS southwestward to the srn South Plains has brought light westerly winds to the forecast area this morning. As the trough moves off to the east, our winds will gradually turn southerly in response to lee troughing developing to our north and west.
At the surface, a frontal boundary remains across the Florida Straits, with weak high pressure over the state.
Extended slight chance PoPs/drizzle for a little longer along the ridges given radar and hi-res model trends. Mid and high clouds persist on the periphery of the low pressure center just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. A spoke of deeper moisture is generating very spotty light rain along the southeastern ridges, and have very low PoPs persisting here for a few more hours. Building ridge of high pressure will erode remaining cloud cover Wednesday, and ultimately bring dry conditions through the remainder of the week. The broad ridge will be further bolstered by digging trough in the western U.
another high pressure ridge builds into the area from the southern plains and keeps things dry into the beginning of the extended periods.
822 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Update A weak area of low pressure moving through the state today may generate a brief shower north of I-96 this afternoon.
1054 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Update A weak area of low pressure moving through the state today may generate a brief shower north of I-96 this afternoon.
459 AM MST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper ridge over the area today will bring another unseasonably warm day across southern Colorado. but winds stay on the light side underneath the upper ridge. particularly along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains as enhanced westerly drainage winds into sfc lee trof helps keep min temperatures up. Many southeastern Colorado sites are projected to experience mid-November temperatures rising into the lower 80s by Wednesday afternoon(quite warm for southern Colorado in mid- November).
In the upper levels, high pressure is noted over southwestern parts of the lower 48 states, which is putting the forecast area under northwesterly flow aloft. Lows overnight will range between the lower 40s and mid 40s. Note: Normal high temperatures for this time of year range roughly around the lower 60s, while low temperatures near 30 degrees are accustomed for this time of year.
This trend will continue tomorrow as the upper ridge moves overhead and stout SW downslope flow develops. By tomorrow afternoon widespread 850 mb temps will likely reach into the upper teens, if not warmer. Record highs in the low to mid 80s will be possible. Went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch tomorrow for northwestern OK where an hour or two of critical conditions will likely develop near thermal ridge axis. By Thu, the anticipated deep mid to upper trough will have moved over CO.
627 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak low pressure system will move up the east coast today. Although they will trend a bit cooler, temperatures will remain near or somewhat above average through Wednesday. On Wednesday, a weak surface trof and upper level feature will move through the region bringing the possibility of a light shower. Highs will range from the lower to middle 50s.
There will be a short period of 10 to perhaps 15 mph winds from the northwest during the first half of the day behind this trough axis, but winds will go back to light and variable by late afternoon as we approach sunset. This was more of a downslope surge of warmer air than a front, and the warmer 850mb temps will support afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 for just about everyone in southwest, west central, south central KS except up around Hays (mid 70s).
1032 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Carolinas today, in association with a broad upper level trough over the eastern United States. Northwest flow aloft will develop late tonight and Wednesday as an amplified upper level ridge over the Rockies expands east across the Central Plains toward the Mississippi river valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Lower Ms Valley/Northern Gulf Coast States will shift east over the area.
Much cooler for Wednesday with gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts. Slowly warmer towards the end of the week under weak high pressure.
An upper level trough will continue to swing through the eastern CONUS today and tonight, helping to propel the surface front south through the Florida Straits.
These showers are associated with a trough/cold front sliding across the area. While the cold front will sink southeast of our region this morning, colder air looks to remain well to our north.
Another round of showery and breezy weather is expected today with snow levels generally around 6000-7000 feet, so only the higher mountains will receive snowfall. A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area tonight providing a focus for precipitation and allowing snow levels to drop to around 4000 feet by early Wednesday.
558 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Update A weak area of low pressure moving through the state today may generate a brief shower north of I-96 this afternoon.
The tail end of a weakening cold front moving into Northern California will likely bring some light rain to portions of the North Bay today, and rain chances farther to the south later in the day.
The forecast for this afternoon looks good with some scattered to broken sc along with some ac as the short wave trough and weak frontal boundary move into the area.
The higher end of the accumulation range. 2 or 3 inches for Lake of the Woods and Siskiyou Summit then the lower end. First, a slowly eastward moving cold front remains draped northeast to southwest from Klamath County into Siskiyou County.
A weak cold front is moving across eastern Arkansas at this time. As the cold front moves through the remainder of the forecast area and weakens the threat of rain will end later this morning. The air behind the cold front is not much cooler so temperatures today will remain above normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will build into the region tonight bringing a return of dry weather. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with lows Wednesday morning from the lower 40s to around 50 degrees.
This will allow temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 80s, as downslope southwest winds develop at 5 to 10 mph. Otherwise, it will be sunny and dry today as upper ridging builds in from the west. Tonight, temperatures will not be quite as cold in the lower 50s across northern sections, including the Big Country, as a lee trough develops and keeps south winds prevailing at 5 to 10 mph.
However, may adjust the pops downward again into the low chance before noon.
A weak trough will move across the area on Wednesday.
656 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Aviation A weak area of low pressure moving through the state today may generate a brief shower north of I-96 this afternoon.
Winds should turn to the northwest as the trough moves through, but the winds are expected to be fairly light. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight than currently.
629 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper level low exits northern mountains by dawn.
547 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak cold front. Lows tonight around 40 again as another weak cold front drags into the area late in the night. Winds will go through a series of gentle shifts as well over the upcoming day with WNW shifting to SW ahead of the next front/trough. Generally clear skies other than some patchy morning fog today in relatively moist low level air mass with good radiational cooling conditions due to clear skies aloft behind the cold front.
514 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Moisture ahead of a cold front will allow for MVFR/IFR visibilities across mainly the SHV/LFK terminal sites through 15/15Z. High pressure behind the front to bring VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period.
Looking at water vapor imagery the trough shows up quite well with a subsident area moving across the north Florida area this morning. Will likely indicate some fog between 05 to 09 utc and then diminishing after that as the moisture is squeezed out of the lower airmass in favor of more dew. High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern with northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet.
718 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Carolinas today, in association with a broad upper level trough over the eastern United States. Northwest flow aloft will develop late tonight and Wednesday as an amplified upper level ridge over the Rockies expands east across the Central Plains toward the Mississippi river valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Lower Ms Valley/Northern Gulf Coast States will shift east over the area.
856 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Update A weak area of low pressure moving through the state today may generate a brief shower north of I-96 this afternoon.
Upper level ridging will build into the region through the mid week.
The upper level disturbance producing the weak frontal passage today exit the area to the south tonight and quickly H5 ridging will take its place that spans much of the southwest US.
A trough and weak surface front will cross the area today.
High pressure ridging extends across the forecast area this morning with just some thin high clouds showing up on visible satellite across southeast OH and northern West Virginia. Further east there are mid and some lower clouds lingering along the Allegheny Front associated with moisture on the periphery of deepening low pressure south of Long Island. Building ridge of high pressure will erode remaining cloud cover Wednesday, and ultimately bring dry conditions through the remainder of the week. The broad ridge will be further bolstered by digging trough in the western U.
527 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 A quiet aviation weather pattern can be expected for this forecast cycle as an upper level ridge develops overhead. The weak cold front that moved through yesterday appears to be stalled out across our far southeast counties where there is a distinct boundary in the moisture fields and a slight temperature gradient. Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail today as mid level heights continue to rise indicative of ridging building into the region. Highs will be in the lower 80s areawide which is 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year. a strong upper trough will be moving through the western U.
Above normal temperatures will continue, with highs expected to be in the lower to middle 50s in most locations today and Wednesday.
An upper trof over the eastern states amplifies while advancing to near the east coast overnight. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s closer to the coast.
402 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 A cold front will continue to gradually move across the area this morning. The showers should exit the area by 12z this morning as the upper trough moves farther east and away from the area.
High pressure in control this morning over northeast Kansas with generally dry northwest flow aloft. Given the setup being similar to yesterday with perhaps a bit more sunshine should result in highs trending a few degrees warmer into the lower 70s. Skies remain clear with overnight temperatures dropping to the lower 40s.
649 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move east and an associated weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
A cold front will bring rain this morning to the region followed by much colder interior temperatures through mid week.
Farther east, there is a weak surge noted across the plains so east of Denver temperatures should hold a few degrees cooler. As an upper trough develops over the Pacific Northwest, southwesterly flow aloft across Colorado will bring one last day of abnormally warm temperatures to the state. High temperatures acorss the plains are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s, some 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal, and near record values for the date. Skies will be mostly sunny, although by the end of the day we may see an increase in high level clouds, in advance of the approaching trough.
923 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 High pressure builds into the area today before a weak disturbance moves through Wednesday.
Significant changes still on track for our region for the latter half of the work week as an upper trough pushes across the Rockies. Timing has remained fairly consistent with an initial push of cooler air late tonight. followed by a stronger push Wednesday night as the main trough axis enters the region.