Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1030 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 The mean-layer low-level ridging persists across Florida and the western North Atlantic. The 925 mb wind has turned to the SW during the past 24 hr at TAE, indicating the low-level ridge axis has shifted southward into north-central Florida. From synopsis, a high pressure cell will extend west across Florida through the forecast period.
Concur with deterministic output that the upper ridge will persist and gradually build over the region. The building ridge/drier conditions should preclude convection Wednesday.
The longwave trough over the West Coast will continue to gradually move eastward today. It will also advect drier air into the region and this combination will cause Red Flag conditions across the northwest half of the forecast area with the exception of the higher terrain where the fuels are not critical. Tomorrow the midlevel trough progresses over the Great Basin, which pushes the drier air further into the forecast area and keeps the pressure gradient relatively tight.
For today, should see less thunderstorm coverage over the area as drier air mixes down into the lower elevations. Mountains and valleys should see temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with primarily 70s and 80s.
Mean layer 1000-700 mb ridge was center across central GA, with a light NNE steering flow 5 kts or less across SE GA and coastal NE FL, with flow becoming ENE across inland NE FL around the southern periphery of the mean ridge axis. 6 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer, trending a bit cooler aloft than climo. Temperatures trending a little warmer today compared to yesterday with persistent ridge over the area. High temperatures today will range from the mid/upper 90s (triple digits for a few inland locales, Jesup reached 100 yesterday) to the low 90s along the Atlantic coast where the sea breeze will move inland.
With the lower-deck component slowly becoming a downslope variant, the atmosphere would definitely turn up the thermostat. The GFS wants to quickly develop an upper-deck cyclone over MT & ID then drives the cyclone along the Canadian/U. KCNU looks to be the only site affected by the lower visibilities.
Heavy rain across southwest Arkansas can be attributed significant moisture in place interacting with a bit of instability and a vort max rotating around the trough. Will continue to see rain chances for much of the day along the southern periphery of the trough as the trough slowly pushes east. 06z NAM has been a little more progressive and pushes the base of the trough further east and out of our CWA. Unfortunately as the rain chances push east, a ridge of high pressure will build over the area and bring a return of high temperatures to the region.
Warmer on Wednesday, but held to the upper 80s/90s, just the beginning for the heat that follows.
Current temperatures are slightly cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 40s in the mountain valleys to the mid 70s across milder portions of the Central Valley and foothill thermal belts. Little change is expected the next several days as a weak trough lingers along the West Coast.
Until then, expect humid conditions but highs that are a bit cooler than yesterday.
Cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday afternoon as well.
Upper trough is moving through the area this morning and will move east into Idaho by early this evening.
A ridge of high pressure will provide light winds and slight seas through the week with a shift to onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze develops.
594 DM ridge at 500 mbs centered across the far nrn peninsula and SE GA with easterly flow in the H8-H5 layer. Low level Atlantic ridge axis will be draped across the local Atlantic waters and central Florida and produce favorable boating conditions.
329 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Slightly cooler for inland areas today. A weak trough of low pressure to the north will bring greater cooling for Wednesday into the weekend.
High pressure will then begin to bounce back toward the Four Corners with a gradual return of moisture. A trough moving across the western states will push monsoon moisture eastward today.
A weak surface boundary associated with an approaching trough will make its way through the state today through this evening.
/issued 332 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather will persist across the forecast area again today, with the subtropical ridge dominating. The center of the upper ridge will be over New Mexico and far West Texas today, with little change to the strength of the low level thermal ridge.
Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Upper level ridging should build back in from the east by mid week over the Red River Valley.
Overnight lows tonight should be around 10 degrees warmer in most locations than last night's, setting the stage for an even warmer day tomorrow.
241 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 The mid level ridge will continue to build in over South Texas tonight and tomorrow and PWATS will be near or just below normal tonight through tomorrow night thus limiting the chances for precipitation. H85 temperatures are forecast to be from 20C to 23C across the area which will result in higher surface temperatures; however, with the lower relative humidity, we expect heat indices to remain around 105 through 109 for Wednesday.
During the day Wednesday, southwesterly flow and a high pressure ridge building to the west will increase temperatures strongly in western portions of Illinois, where temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints well in to the 70s will combine to produce heat index values rising to around 105 degrees.
As a low pressure system approaches from the west, showers and t'storms are expected to spread into the area tomorrow morning through the afternoon.
Low to mid lvl ridge stretching across the Carolinas, south GA/north FL area should help to limit convective initiation this afternoon to "isolated" at best, despite ample moisture in place.
Summertime heat will then begin to settle in starting on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds over the region. A conditional climatology study with those 850 temperatures suggests that highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s over most of the area. With dew points expected to be in the lower to middle 70s, afternoon and early evening heat indices will warm into the 100 to 108 degree range.
Much depends on where exactly the low level jet sets up overnight. As for temperatures, clouds will keep us a few degrees cooler than today although the dew points should be higher.
Nevertheless, models have trended a touch warmer, so I am relatively confident that most locations will see heat index values 102 to 110 degrees by late afternoon.
249 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 The mean-layer low-level ridging persists across Florida and the western North Atlantic. The 925 mb wind has turned to the SW during the past 24 hr at TAE, indicating the low-level ridge axis has shifted southward into north-central Florida. Low-level ridging will persist to our north, maintaining the generally east to southeasterly steering through the lower troposphere. A high pressure cell will extend west across Florida through the forecast period.
Isolated storms have ended and clouds with the short wave trough in eastern sd will move east today. Until then, expect humid conditions but highs that are a bit cooler than yesterday.
The heat and humidity combination will bring the heat index into the lower 100s.
The main period of showers/storms for the area will come during the late morning through the mid afternoon hours, associated with the main trough axis and associated QG forcing. PW values during this time will be around 2 inches, and efficient warm cloud processes (large LCL to freezing level thickness) will produce storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
Will continue a slight chance for a shower late across south coastal sections with some nocturnal convection developing in the low level southeast flow that may brush the Martin/St Lucie immediate coast and beaches.
upper ridging should keep the region mostly dry with just a few showers near the coast in the morning transition over to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms by 11 am or noon roughly north of the I-69 corridor.
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 A summertime pattern continues with a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic keeping a south to southeast flow across South Florida. Also, this will keep high temperatures similar each day through the beginning of the week, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 70s to around 80 along the beaches. The next change to the pattern looks to come on Tuesday, when a 500mb trough digs into the southeast US. Also, models are indicating a cold front may push into North Florida. High pressure over the Western Atlantic should keep the wind generally out of the east to southeast through the weekend, at around 10 kts, give or take a couple of knots.
107 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 High pressure over the region today will move offshore Wednesday.
Convection re-develops Wednesday afternoon, mainly along and east of I-29 as instability increases and the low-level jet re- intensifies.
349 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Tonight through Wednesday: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring this afternoon, with the most coverage of storms mainly for areas along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. The upper trough and the remnant moisture from Barry will shift east on Wednesday, with the best chance of showers/storms over areas in the north-central and north-east.
However, a moist/unstable air mass does exist across much of the high plains with dew points around 60-65F helping contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg roughly along/north east of a line from Douglas-Chugwater-Kimball. The highest probability for large hail and/or damaging winds should be over northern zones.
Most of the higher resolution/CAM support higher rain chances though not that high generally north and northeast of IAH and have tailored the TAFs accordingly with VCSH this afternoon. Upper level ridging should build back in from the east by mid week over the Red River Valley.
Primary complicating factors will be the potential for convection both tonight and Wednesday night; however the nose of the LLJ will remain focused west of the forecast area, and the broadly ridged flow aloft will help steer convection more east northeast than directly into the forecast area, lowering the potential for widespread cloud cover that lingers into the afternoons.
Otherwise, an elongated ridge will bring dry conditions for at least the next 5 to 6 days.
213 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Upper level zonal flow continued this morning across the northern Great Plains today, with a transition to west northwest this afternoon ahead of an approaching Pacific coast trough. Surface analysis shows low pressure across Wyoming, with southeast moist flow across western SD. Storms will depart late this evening or just past midnight, with lingering showers possible overnight behind a cold front pushing through.
246 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen and grow over the Four Corners region of the CONUS through the next several days. Daytime heating along with a mid-level theta-e ridge trapped along the aforementioned high's eastern periphery will result in at least isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity over the mountains, with chances of thunderstorms during the evening hours primarily across the plains of southeastern New Mexico. The upper level high is forecast to grow over the central Rockies east across the central Plains this weekend, resulting in a transition to northeasterly flow aloft.
Low to mid-lvl ridge over the area is helping to suppress convection which should continue through the remainder of the afternoon/evening hours.
Then later this evening, convection formed off the higher terrain in southern Montana will propagate eastward along a broad frontal boundary towards southwest North Dakota and northwest South Dakota. Uncertainty lies in the extent of the damaging wind threat as guidance indicates the northward extent of the low level flow (into south-central ND) will be less favorable for gust front convergence and thus a more organized wind threat. A severe thunderstorm threat will be possible again, generally favoring the eastern portions of the state with 50 kts of deep layer shear over a prefrontal trough.
A flat upper level ridge of high pressure will extend from the Desert Southwest east across the Southern Tier of the U.
Ensemble 500mb heights are starting to focus more on an upper ridge pattern building into the western U.
Upper level ridging will limit afternoon thunderstorm coverage through Wednesday.
Northwest Montana will experience scattered storms as the predominantly southwest flow shifts to the east with a passing trough axis.
1100 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Isolated storms have ended and clouds with the short wave trough in eastern sd will move east today. Until then, expect humid conditions but highs that are a bit cooler than yesterday.
Oncer again, increased onshore p-grads will result in a brief period of gusty winds along the ridge tops and below the passes in the Kern County Mountains and Deserts late this afternoon through this evening. SREF indicating weak troughiness prevailing over the western CONUS for the remainder of the week with temperatures remaining slightly below seasonal normals and mainly clear skies and dry conditions prevailing.
There will be two short wave troughs from the west responsible for the storm development. The first area will move east Wednesday morning with more development with the second short wave trough Wednesday afternoon and evening mainly in the east.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will be the rule for the RGV throughout the short term period maintaining the hot, stable and humid conditions through Wed Night. The 500 mb ridge axis will shift eastwards a bit into Wed/Wed Night.
As of 1 pm, temperatures are in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints late tonight/Wednesday morning will rise once again into the upper 60s to low 70s then lower in the afternoon into the low to mid 60s. Meanwhile, the lows tonight and highs Wednesday may lower by 1-2 degrees compared to this morning and this afternoon, due to ever so slight weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. The continued upper level ridge over Texas should continue to suppress afternoon shower/storm activity Wednesday.
/issued 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ A summertime pattern continues with a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic keeping a south to southeast flow across South Florida. Also, this will keep high temperatures similar each day through the beginning of the week, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 70s to around 80 along the beaches. The next change to the pattern looks to come on Tuesday, when a 500mb trough digs into the southeast US. Also, models are indicating a cold front may push into North Florida. High pressure over the Western Atlantic should keep the wind generally out of the east to southeast through the weekend, at around 10 kts, give or take a couple of knots.
Not much change in the overall pattern as a weak trough lingers along the West Coast.
/22/ Tonight through Wednesday: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring this afternoon, with the most coverage of storms mainly for areas along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. The upper trough and the remnant moisture from Barry will shift east on Wednesday, with the best chance of showers/storms over areas in the north-central and north-east.
1033 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures are, not surprisingly, in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. However, there is some inhibition and drier air at the lower levels. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain gentle out of the east through the overnight period thanks to the ridging to our north. Back ground ridging and previously mentioned drier air and some stable layers through the lower levels will keep, not prevent, shower activity. Ridging across Florida will keep gentle to moderate east breezes across the Keys through the overnight period.
The combination of afternoon heating with more than adequate moisture accounted for the eruption of storms as seabreezes developed and slowly worked inland due to light winds with the mean layer (1000-500 MB) ridge nearly overhead.
Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U. with broad troughing across the north half 00z Thu. through this forecast period atop the broad 500 mb ridge. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge across most of the southern U. with troughing in Canada 12z Sat.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms were noted weakening as they move east along the Highway 82 corridor. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Wednesday: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring this afternoon, with the most coverage of storms mainly for areas along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. The upper trough and the remnant moisture from Barry will shift east on Wednesday, with the best chance of showers/storms over areas in the north-central and north-east.
/issued 302 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will be the rule for the RGV throughout the short term period maintaining the hot, stable and humid conditions through Wed Night. The 500 mb ridge axis will shift eastwards a bit into Wed/Wed Night.
427 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Upper level trough of formerly Barry is currently around Missouri into Arkansas extending into the upper part of Louisiana. Ridging will build in over the south later this week. MSW High pressure is currently building across the north Gulf and should continue through the week. Right now, winds are still in the 10 knot range but as the high pressure builds, winds will generally light and will fluctuate diurnally.
High pressure ridging will continue to meander over the area thru mid-week.
507 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Upper level zonal flow continued this morning across the northern Great Plains today, with a transition to west northwest this afternoon ahead of an approaching Pacific coast trough. Surface analysis shows low pressure across Wyoming, with southeast moist flow across western SD. Storms will depart late this evening or just past midnight, with lingering showers possible overnight behind a cold front pushing through.
403 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing as expected this afternoon with the highest overall coverage across central Louisiana.
Upper-level ridging will limit afternoon thunderstorm coverage through Wednesday.
/issued 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen and grow over the Four Corners region of the CONUS through the next several days. Daytime heating along with a mid-level theta-e ridge trapped along the aforementioned high's eastern periphery will result in at least isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity over the mountains, with chances of thunderstorms during the evening hours primarily across the plains of southeastern New Mexico. The upper level high is forecast to grow over the central Rockies east across the central Plains this weekend, resulting in a transition to northeasterly flow aloft.
High pressure will then begin to bounce back toward the Four Corners with a gradual return of moisture.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 86 74 91 / 30 70 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 72 89 / 20 70 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 74 85 73 89 / 30 70 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 85 69 87 / 10 70 60 60.
Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will be quite warm on Thursday with highs in the lower 90s. High pressure will settle in over the southeast U.
Skies are a bit clearer tonight so reduced the high clouds to scattered. Classic summer "Valley Wind Machine" event underway as 500 mb ridge parked over the northeast Gulf and extending toward Bermuda is maintaining a 1020 mb high centered along the northern Gulf coast, while the eastern Rockies to Sierra Madre pre-monsoon heat trough is well established.
Hot and humid conditions are ahead Thursday into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
Trend should have activity should be over by midnight which trends well with the high-res ensembles.
/issued 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ A summertime pattern continues with a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic keeping a south to southeast flow across South Florida. Also, this will keep high temperatures similar each day through the beginning of the week, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s and lows in the 70s to around 80 along the beaches.
335 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Today through tonight: The upper trough and the remnant moisture from Barry will shift east on Wednesday, with the best chance of showers/storms over the northeast. Another very humid day is on tap with highs in the low 90s. The potential for storms will diminish by early evening, with overnight lows falling into the low/mid 70s.
/issued 403 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing as expected this afternoon with the highest overall coverage across central Louisiana.
Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next several days as weak upper ridge remains in place across the southern Plains.
A disturbance ahead of a weak low pressure trough will continue to keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going over the southwest through 08Z. The passage of the weak trough will leave the area under a brisk westerly flow aloft, which will likely bring mid and high cloudiness and cause gusty westerly winds to increase across the area after 16Z, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the North Central Montana plains.
/Issued 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ The mid level ridge will continue to build in over South Texas tonight and tomorrow and PWATS will be near or just below normal tonight through tomorrow night thus limiting the chances for precipitation. H85 temperatures are forecast to be from 20C to 23C across the area which will result in higher surface temperatures; however, with the lower relative humidity, we expect heat indices to remain around 105 through 109 for Wednesday.
1158 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Upper level zonal flow continued this morning across the northern Great Plains today, with a transition to west northwest this afternoon ahead of an approaching Pacific coast trough. Surface analysis shows low pressure across Wyoming, with southeast moist flow across western SD. Storms will depart late this evening or just past midnight, with lingering showers possible overnight behind a cold front pushing through.
A weak wave and trough is exiting the area this evening and a northwesterly flow is setting up behind it. The trough had little moisture or energy.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over the southern part of the country and a trough over the west. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf making the winds across our CWA southeasterly. Dewpoint temperatures were generally in the lower 70s except along the Rio Grande where they were in the middle to upper 60s. The subtropical ridge will remain in place over Texas during this period. The low level flow will continue to be southeasterly. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep the weather dry through this period. Temperatures will be on the high side of the normal range.
Looking upstream, water vapour showed upper trough spreading across western MT trailing into western WY. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into the northern plains.
By Thursday, ridge of high pressure will be centered over Arkansas with dry weather in the forecast.
351 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Upper ridging continues over the southern half of the country. Good low-level moisture will be present with storms expected to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain west of the Pecos River and possibly spread as far east as the western Permian Basin.