Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The higher gusts approaching 75 MPH have diminished some over the past few hours across the wind prone areas, but low-level gradients are expected to remain exceptional through at least Tuesday afternoon, with the 850 mb CAG-CPR gradient hovering around 80 meters. The culprit for a majority of the lower elevation zones today has been a combination of strong subsidence & low-level mixing. A few snow showers will be possible over northern zones on Tuesday with the passage of the next cold front, but with limited moisture do not expect this activity to amount to much.
Pavement temperatures are below freezing so even any rain showers could make roads slippery.
854 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure will gradually build in from the southwest through the middle of the week while weak disturbances pass to the north. Another low pressure system may impact the region toward the end of the week. Otherwise, tonight is expected to be seasonable with low temperatures generally in the lower 30s (20s mountains).
635 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Cold front and accompanying light rain will exit the region this evening.
229 PM PST Mon Feb 22 2021 Warm and dry weather continues early this week with cooler weather expected the second half of the week.
Continued to side with warmer guidance as temperatures have already climbed into the upper 50s to mid 60s as of the 12 o'clock hour. A warmer night is anticipated as wind speeds remain steady near 10 mph or so.
A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday evening, but with no arctic air with the system, temperatures will only fall back down to near seasonable levels for the reminder of the week. Southwest flow on Tuesday will lead to mild conditions ahead of a cold front that will move through the region Tuesday night.
600 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, southwest surface winds will increase and become gusty by late Tuesday morning across the TAF sites as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing surface trof of low pressure. Meanwhile, the northern stream flow lifts further north as the next trough shifts out over the Great Basin.
418 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Area rain and snow will diminish today with an exiting low pressure system.
/CME/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure ridging is re-establishing itself over the region this afternoon, as skies have cleared across the area. A nice day is on tap for Tuesday as high pressure continues to prevail, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s.
Mild, Pacific high pressure will follow and expand across the Southeast through mid-week. Aside from a modest increase in cirrus Tue night, as the mid-upr ridge axis shifts east of cntl NC, skies are expected to be sunny/clear. The air mass will also be dry, however, such that strong radiational cooling will favor lows in the low-mid 30s Tue night.
411 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure ridging is re-establishing itself over the region this afternoon, as skies have cleared across the area. A nice day is on tap for Tuesday as high pressure continues to prevail, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s.
/CME/ Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure ridging is re-establishing itself over the region this afternoon, as skies have cleared across the area. A nice day is on tap for Tuesday as high pressure continues to prevail, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s.
Given progged 850mb jet and tightening pressure gradient, have also gone toward the higher end of consensus wind guidance, with gusts as high as 40 mph possible in the southwestern Texas Panhandle.
350 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure along with mostly sunny skies and drier air will remain in control of the area through Wednesday.
/issued 932 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Temperatures range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 The Key West evening sounding found the moist layer having deepened about 3kft from last nights sounding, but winds have decreased substantially over the past few hours and the afternoon showers that blanketed most of the lower Keys have long since dissipated. The anticyclone now sitting off the mid-Atlantic coast will continue to trek eastward, and high pressure will begin to build along the northern Gulf coast behind it. The weak boundary passing through will be just a brief respite from the higher humidity, with winds back to easterly by Wednesday.
Wednesday: A dry cold front will pass through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
A cold front, with noted upper level support, will quickly swing through the region this morning. Thus, the highest PoPs will be maintained across the northeast corner of the forecast area. This setup will keep the risk for snow showers across the northeast, but also initiate upslope snow showers for the ridges. The previously mentioned wind shift and cold air advection will work to maintain snow shower efficiency in the ridges through much of the afternoon. Above normal temperatures will result Wednesday before the fast-moving trough and its sfc cold front sweep through, with meager moisture and lift limiting precipitation chances.
223 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Windy conditions are expected today as high pressure builds over the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. A relatively tranquil weather pattern is expected the next 24 hours with no major weather systems impacting the Lower 48. Passage of an upper level short wave trof to our north will enhance the low level winds across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region this afternoon. Dry high pressure over the Gulf states will stretch northward into the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, a slow moving cold front will enter the Greenbrier Valley then drift south into Tennessee and North Carolina. Since the Gulf is being blocked by high pressure, only looking at light amounts of rain across the mountains and sprinkles east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday night.
The trough will interact with a clipper system in ND and far northeast SD/west central MN by evening. Will need to monitor for any southerly trends of the higher band of QPF/snow Tuesday night. A bit cooler day is expected following passage of the cold front Tuesday night, however temps remain above normal with highs in the upper 30s and low to mid 40s through the work week.
102 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 [Through 06Z Wednesday] Dense fog along and east of a cold front draped roughly across TLH/VLD are making for VLIFR conds at those terminals. Tuesday will be a cool and dry with lows in the low to mid 40s then warming to the upper 60s for the afternoon, along with clear skies. Lows in the lower 40s Tuesday night will moderate to the mid 40s the following night.
/CME/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure ridging is re-establishing itself over the region this afternoon, as skies have cleared across the area. A nice day is on tap for Tuesday as high pressure continues to prevail, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s. /15/ Tuesday night through the weekend: After a cool start, expect event milder conditions Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next front with highs likely rising into the low/mid 70s for much of the area. A steady stream of high precipitable water is expected to circulate around a strengthening low level anticyclone centered over off the GA/FL east coast, and this anomalous deep moisture will intersect with a persistent west-east oriented baroclinic zone across the lower MS Valley region.
The region remains under northwest flow with an upper ridge west and a broad trough over eastern Canada/United States. Zonal flow aloft and a digging surface/850 mb trough along the Front Range will provide decent WAA into the area giving comparable, if not better numbers than are currently out there. This will be short-lived though as the aforementioned trough slide east late in the day/overnight across the area allowing colder air to infiltrate the region. There is a decent surface/850 ridge building into the area on its heels. 5 inches in the two counties with an isolated focus for highest amounts south of Flagler and extending southeast along a ridge to north of Kit Carson/Wild Horse.
Upper-level forcing continues to decreases as a trough moves northeastwards across the northeast United States, with the front continuing to slow down on it's approach to our region this morning. Highs today will be in the low 80s along the east and west coast, to the mid 80s along the southern portions of the interior. With the passage of the FROPA, a ridge of high pressure once again establishes itself over South Florida.
Most of us should be dry and quiet through the short term period as we get some help from passing high pressure to the south. Temperatures are the main story for Tuesday, as westerly flow switches back to the south and WAA increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Aforementioned cold front will pass through the area Wednesday morning, with flow switching from a nice, mild southwest to a cooler northwest.
A back door cold front will move into eastern NM Wednesday before the next storm system approaches from the west Wednesday night.
343 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Winds will remain brisk today as a deep low pressure area tracks north across southern Canada.
1254 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week.
932 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Temperatures range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
322 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 A nice welcomed quiet and abnormally warm regime on tap thru short term as region is dominated by broad sfc ridging and mainly zonal flow aloft. Temps 5-10 deg above climo norms today with highs in upper 60s to low 70s for most areas, then even a few degrees warmer for Wednesday with continued dry airmass, zonal flow, and more southerly component to fetch with weakening ridge.
1117 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure will bring a short break before a weak Clipper moves across the region early Tuesday. Wind gust of 25-30kts still noted at 03Z across the Laurel Highlands, but expect those winds to diminish overnight with arrival of ridge. Latest ensemble qpf supports snow totals ranging from 1-2 inches over the higher elevations of the northwest counties, to nothing south of KAOO and KMDT. Mixing down ensemble mean 850mb temps yields expected highs from the mid 30s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid 40s in the valleys of south central Pa.
The result is a generally milder but still seasonal night with much of the area likely staying above freezing.
The only potential for any precipitation is with a cold frontal passage Wednesday. Temperatures will be well above freezing, so there is no wintry concern. The south winds will increase Tuesday night ahead of the approaching cold front.
It will be dry the next couple of days, with high pressure passing by to our south. The high was over Texas this afternoon, but will head for Florida on Tuesday. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a southwest wind and above average temperatures. It will not be quite as springlike on Wednesday as a weak cold front pushes into the region from the north.
High pressure continues to build in across the area with mid and upper level ridging building in from the west tonight and Tuesday. This should result in temperatures +5F to +7F warmer than today on Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites as high pressure builds across the area. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 67 38 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 64 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 36 63 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 62 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 30.
A cold front will push into the region Wednesday and will cool temps by roughly 20 degrees F or more with highs only reaching into the low to mid 50s.
914 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Surface ridging tonight is gradually shifting eastward, setting up a southwest to northeast gradient of temperatures and wind speeds. /issued 547 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ For the 23/00Z TAF update, VFR skies prevail in a ridge over our airspace that is gradually shifting eastward into the Mississippi Valley.
1130 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 For the 23/06Z TAF update, VFR skies prevail in a ridge over our airspace that is gradually shifting eastward into the Mississippi Valley. /issued 914 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ Surface ridging tonight is gradually shifting eastward, setting up a southwest to northeast gradient of temperatures and wind speeds.
High pressure and a warmer airmass will build into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. As the surface reflected trof approaches expect some increase in clouds again -- especially across the northern two thirds of ILN/s area. Lows tonight will be in the lower and middle 30s. This should lead to a decreasing cloud trend from the southwest along with some warmer temperatures. A cold front will approach from the west later Tuesday night. Moisture is limited with this feature and therefore kept precipitation chances on the lower side.
Quiet and warmer under high pressure midweek before modest cool down arrives late week. S/W trof axis races through this morning with clouds across northern counties and a few lowland rain showers/mountain snow showers into midday. There may be a light accumulation on said ridges, but nothing impactful. The biggest impact from this system will be the wind with gusts 20 to 25 kts in the lowlands and approaching criteria on the highest ridges in the northern mountains. Wind will diminish late this afternoon and evening with weak s/w ridging building into the region. Temperatures will tonight will fall back to near freezing in the lowlands and 20's for the mountains. Strong west southwest H850 flow will bring a warmer temperatures Wednesday ahead of crossing cold front.
The latest NBM run MaxT remains cool biased as well as a weak bias with the afternoon windspeeds, so will go closer to a warmer and windier MOS guidance using the CONSMOS. Expecting highs today in the lower to mid 70s across most of our area, which is about 15 degrees warmer than climatically average for this time. Surface winds may be a bit more veered across our north Texas counties, with a southwesterly surface flow advecting even warmer air up from the Panhandle Plains.
1200 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 As of 3pm, temperatures range from the low 40s in central/eastern Nebraska to the low 60s in the snow-free areas of north-central Kansas. A cold front will pass through the area by Tuesday evening.
216 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 243 PM CST Breezy southwest winds are helping push temperatures above freezing across the whole area, with even some areas nearing 40 degrees over my southwestern areas. These warmer conditions will be the trend over the next 36 hours, with the warmest conditions likely to occur on Tuesday. Otherwise, expect temperatures to hover in the low to mid 30s tonight. This is expected as a lower-level thermal ridge advects northward over the area during the day in response to the next area of low pressure taking shape over the Dakotas. Currently we are forecasting highs into the lower 40s north and the mid and upper 40s far south over central IL. This track will favor continued mild southwesterly winds locally through much of Tuesday night, before a cold front shifts across the area early Wednesday morning.
Skies tonight will remain clear and drier, cooler air will continue to filter into the region in the wake of a cold front. Winds will become lighter and more variable as the axis of the high pressure moves across. For the most part highs will be in the 68-72 degree range over all of the interior, slightly cooler along the immediate coast (60-65 degrees). Springtime like temperatures will return on Wednesday, with highs ranging from 70 to 75 degrees inland areas, with upper 60s along the immediate coast due to the cooler Gulf waters.
338 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will then build in from the west and southwest through Wednesday night.
A dry cold front will push through northern Utah tomorrow, followed by an active pattern Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.
310 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
High pressure building in from the northwest will allow temperatures to fall a few degrees from the relative warmth of the beginning of the week, but increasing sun should help keep highs above freezing.
On Wednesday, a cold front will pass across the region bringing strong, north winds to much of the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
215 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Surface ridging continues to shift eastward toward the Mississippi Valley this morning, boosting southerly flow and this afternoon's high temperatures past the mid 70s, especially in southwestern zones. /16/ Cold front associated with departing upper trof over the NE to be draped across our srn areas at the start of the pd.
1221 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 MVFR/IFR cigs from low clouds along with some MVFR vsbys from some widely scattered SHRA along and ahead of a cold front will impact the terminals through 12Z this morning with VFR returning thereafter as drier air works its way into the region in the wake of the front.
1015 PM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 An upper trough will continue to affect the eastern two thirds of the CONUS tonight and Tuesday, with low amplitude WNW flow across the northern Plains. The next strong wave will cross the region late tonight into Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the CWA Tuesday morning. The next cold front is progged to cross the area this weekend, but little QPF is expected, along with near to slightly colder than average temperatures.
936 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Latest surface analysis is showing a weak trough across the region with a fairly tight surface gradient across the Midwest. With temperatures starting above freezing, southwest winds, and mainly sunny skies, it still looks like highs tomorrow will be in the 55-65 range.
1032 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure will bring a short break before a weak Clipper moves across the region early Tuesday. Wind gust of 25-30kts still noted at 03Z across the Laurel Highlands, but expect those winds to diminish overnight with arrival of ridge. Latest ensemble qpf supports snow totals ranging from 1-2 inches over the higher elevations of the northwest counties, to nothing south of KAOO and KMDT. Mixing down ensemble mean 850mb temps yields expected highs from the mid 30s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid 40s in the valleys of south central Pa.
The exception would be for far northern Missouri where lingering snow cover will keep temperatures several degrees cooler, though they should still see readings in the 50s with a few locations nearing 60 degrees. These spring-like temperatures won't last long as the next cold front will be knocking on our door today.
An area of low pressure deepens east into southwest KS during the mid-afternoon, backing winds to the southwest from 10 to 20 mph.
1005 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through mid-week. Precipitation ended and winds diminished by late afternoon after the cold front exited east of the region. Lows tonight will vary from the low 30s north to the upper 30s south. Aside from a modest increase in cirrus Tue night, as the mid-upr ridge axis shifts east of cntl NC, skies are expected to be sunny/clear. The air mass will also be dry, however, such that strong radiational cooling will favor lows in the low-mid 30s Tue night. High pressure will be centered along the Outer Banks at the beginning of Wednesday. A cold front with little moisture will pass over the region Wednesday night, and while there could be a slight increase in cloud cover, no precipitation is expected with the frontal passage.
352 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week.
Very benign and warm weather is ahead of us for the next few days as a high pressure settles in over our region. Patchy fog is possible in our southwestern counties early Tuesday morning as the high pressure begins to slide to our northeast allowing southeast winds to resume and low-level moisture primes the area for fog potential. For Tuesday, daytime highs should reach the lower-to-mid 70s across SE TX and overnight lows will cool to the lower 50s.
This is the region where surface temperatures were around freezing. - Light precipitation possible tonight with limited impacts A surface wave of low pressure is shown to track eastward through Lower MI from near Ludington through Mount Pleasant late tonight into Wednesday morning. The warm air advection out ahead of this system could generate light precipitation tonight mainly along and north of the low track. We will keep the POPs at chance levels and highest closest to the low track. This happens to be the area where surface temperatures will end up near freezing tonight. Surface dewpoints will be climbing above freezing for the area to the southwest of Grand Rapids towards Kalamazoo and South Haven. - Moderating temps over with weekend with some melting snow Low pressure will be tracking eastward through Southern Canada over the weekend.
Thus, the highest PoPs will be maintained across the northeast corner of the forecast area. This setup will keep the risk for snow showers across the northeast, but also initiate upslope snow showers for the ridges. The previously mentioned wind shift and cold air advection will work to maintain snow shower efficiency in the ridges through much of the afternoon. Above normal temperatures will result Wednesday before the fast-moving trough and its sfc cold front sweep through, with meager moisture and lift limiting precipitation chances.
A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday evening, but with no arctic air with the system, temperatures will only fall back down to near seasonable levels for the reminder of the week. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday evening.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing in eastern Colorado. Under mostly sunny skies, highs are expected to reach the upper 60s(F) to the lower/mid 70s(F). Look for lows generally down into the 20s(F) tonight as much cooler air surges into western Kansas in wake of the aforementioned frontal passage this evening.
1022 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Cold front and accompanying light rain will exit the region this evening.
1043 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Latest surface analysis is showing a weak trough across the region with a fairly tight surface gradient across the Midwest. With temperatures starting above freezing, southwest winds, and mainly sunny skies, it still looks like highs tomorrow will be in the 55-65 range. The low level jet will continue to cause LLWS at all of the terminals through 13Z.
Weak cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight with a few widely scattered showers possible across far northeast Oklahoma/ northwest Arkansas late tonight into Wednesday morning. Cold front will push south of the area by mid to late afternoon Wednesday.
The 6Z surface analysis has a slowly sagging cold front extending across the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. For tonight, high pressure looks to park over us, prompting winds to go calm and keeping skies mostly clear.
Rain and snow continues to move into the northern third of the forecast area this evening, ahead of the arrival of the cold front. Mild conditions found ahead of the moisture / cold front.
330 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
100 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.