Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Similar to previous forecasts, model soundings suggesting dewpoints in the low 20s today, with some locations in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa possibly getting dewpoints just under 20 degrees. A low pressure system currently in western Canada will push east tonight. The system's cold front aligns with increasing moisture transport at 850 mb from the south, increasing PWATs to about 0. The cold front also aligns well with weak low to mid level frontogenesis, helping to get the precipitation started.
High pressure continues to fill in overnight with light winds expected.
then trending warmer for the second half of the week. Cold High Pressure of Canadian origin will move across the area today and tonight promoting much below normal temperatures. Freezing temperatures are expected areawide tonight.
443 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 A late season cold front is currently advancing towards the Florida Keys this morning. High pressure is building in behind the aforementioned front, and winds in the western waters have increased in response. This would usually make for a relatively muggy morning, but winds across the Lower Keys and the western fringes of the Middle Keys are attempting to keep most of the mugginess at bay.
High pressure will build east over the area. High pressure will shift east tonight into the Mid-Atlantic area.
1038 PM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Fairly active flow pattern will persist in the period as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS and eventually supports another deep sfc cyclone in the Northern Plains. Best chance for precip will be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the northern BH, with sct activity elsewhere.
310 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Low clouds will gradually clear tonight, as low pressure moves northward along the Atlantic Coast and high pressure builds in.
/issued 838 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022/ A cold front will move through the area tonight, though no rain is expected with it. High pressure will quickly build in behind it, with drier air moving into the region. Small Craft Advisories will be in place for the waters starting tonight and continuing through Tuesday as winds increase behind a cold front.
Currently CIGs are expected to mostly be on the higher end of MVFR, possibly low end VFR. That gradient will shift eastward across the High Plains, including the forecast area, during the next 24 hours with breezy conditions persisting and winds veering to southeast to south. At the same time, a low-amplitude upper level short wave trough will move through the zonal flow across the Sangre de Cristos late tonight and across the South Plains and Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Tuesday morning. Will generally run with chance PoPs beginning at 12Z and continuing through the day with the highest chances progressing from west to east during the day.
414 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 A complex low pressure system will lift off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. High pressure builds back over the area Tuesday and will persist over the region through late week. Upper trough will continue to dig through the eastern US with high pressure building in from W. This should result in a fairly pleasant spring day with gusty WNW winds in the tightened pressure gradient between the low that impacted the area yesterday continuing to lift Nward and ridging over the Midwest. Downsloping flow aloft about the departing trough keep skies clear save for some spotty fairweather CU developing late morning from low level moisture left from yesterday's rain under the inversion. Winds calm quickly after sunset as high pressure extends over the region. MinTs in the low to mid 30s away from the immediate coast.
355 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Scattered rain and snow showers will continue today with the passage of low pressure.
332 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Canadian high pressure will slowly build into the region from the west today.
There will be a trough in the northern Rockies and one over the lower Great Lakes 00z Wed. The western trough moves into the northern plains 12z Wed and into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu with the trough axis passing across the area on Thu. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough in the western U. This trough then heads northeast into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes region 12z Mon into 12z Tue. As low pressure over the Great Lakes exits eastward, high pres ridge over the Plains will shift east, reaching Upper Michigan this evening. North winds will be up to 30 knots this morning before high pressure builds in from the west and diminishes the wind.
If these winds also begin to weaken, with low temperatures expected to drop to near or slightly below freezing across Upper Cumberland Plateau Region, it is not out of the question that a freeze warning could be issued later tonight for portion(s) of Upper Cumberland Region. High pressure will be building in through the taf period.
A cold front is currently making its way into western Montana early this morning.
- Light Snow Ending This Morning - Upper troughing will progress east through this morning with ridging quickly moving in place for today. High pressure will slide in by this afternoon cutting off moisture and ending any lingering precipitation by the late morning.
1024 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Scattered rain and snow showers will continue today before high pressure builds in overnight. Rain chances return Wednesday night with a passing trough. Cool northwest flow continues on the backside of a departing low pressure system. Warming sfc temp will result in rain mixing by the afternoon and also confine any additional snow accumulation to the ridges and colder locations towards Forest county. A ridge building in wake of the low this evening will veer low- level flow such that any shower activity will cease with the advection of warmer, drier air. Wind will subside this evening as mixing decreases and as high pressure builds over the area. Aforementioned high pressure and associated ridging aloft will shift east on Wednesday, placing the Upper Ohio Valley in a southerly flow / warm advection regime.
There will be a trough in the northern Rockies and one over the lower Great Lakes 00z Wed. The western trough moves into the northern plains 12z Wed and into the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu with the trough axis passing across the area on Thu. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough in the western U. This trough then heads northeast into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes region 12z Mon into 12z Tue. High pressure is moving over the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes today. North winds will be up to 30 knots this morning before high pressure builds in from the west and diminishes the wind.
638 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Scattered rain and snow showers will continue today with the passage of low pressure. Cool northwest flow continues on the backside of a departing low pressure system. Warming sfc temp will result in rain mixing by the afternoon and also confine any additional snow accumulation to the ridges and colder locations towards Forest county. A ridge building in wake of the low this evening will veer low- level flow such that any shower activity will cease with the advection of warmer, drier air. Wind will subside this evening as mixing decreases and as high pressure builds over the area. Wednesday will bring more seasonable temperatures and partly cloudy skies under high pressure.
Upper level trough currently centered over the Great Lakes region will slowly push eastward today. Otherwise, expect another day of cooler temperatures, as highs generally stay in the mid to upper 50s. Overnight, high pressure will gradually move across the region and settle along the spine of the Appalachians by sunrise tomorrow morning. Warm return flow will allow temps to reach the low to mid 60s, a few degrees below climate norms thanks to a thick mid-level overcast cloud deck.
705 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 A complex low pressure system will lift off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. High pressure builds back over the area Tuesday and will persist over the region through late week. Upper trough will continue to dig through the eastern US with high pressure building in from W. This should result in a fairly pleasant spring day with gusty WNW winds in the tightened pressure gradient between the low that impacted the area yesterday continuing to lift Nward and ridging over the Midwest. Downsloping flow aloft about the departing trough keep skies clear save for some spotty fairweather CU developing late morning from low level moisture left from yesterday's rain under the inversion. Winds calm quickly after sunset as high pressure extends over the region. MinTs in the low to mid 30s away from the immediate coast.
620 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Canadian high pressure will slowly build into the region from the west today. The high will move eastward through central NC Wednesday, shifting offshore Wednesday night. Behind it, mid-level ridging over the Midwest will shift east into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by early Wed. It will be a chilly day with highs 10-15 degrees below average in the middle 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south, owing to CAA behind the cold front. Some sub-freezing temperatures are possible in the far north, from Roxboro to the far northern Coastal Plain. Temperatures will dip into the low to middle 40s with upper 30s in the typical colder spots.
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/ The warm and humid conditions continue to end the week, as an amplifying and deepening longwave trough over the West CONUS allows for upper ridging over the tri-state area.
High pressure will build east over the area. High pressure will shift east tonight into the Mid-Atlantic area. Currently expect lows only to drop into the 38 to 40 degree range in those locations, with warmer temperatures in the lower 40s expected further west. Wednesday looks warmer, as zonal flow returns to the area and southerly flow in the boundary layer around the high pressure returns.
This forecast is warmer than the guidance blend and close to the 50th percentile NBM forecast. A Pacific cold front will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska late tonight. The short term model blend suggested highs in the 60s Wednesday while the 50th percentile NBM forecast was a degree or two warmer; especially south. The guidance blend was even warmer with highs in the lower 70s along and south of Interstate 80. The temperature forecast uses the NBM 50th percentile but later forecasts could predict warmer temperatures Wednesday.
Lower levels remain rather dry through the day and will combine with warmer temperatures and the winds to bring Very High fire danger to much of north-central Kansas.
906 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Dry Canadian high pressure will dominate today through Wed with below normal temps and even a threat of patchy frost well inland early Wed morning.
642 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 High pressure along with cool and dry air will enter the region today providing fair through Wednesday. High pressure continues building into the region as low pressure marches northward along the Atlantic Coast and into New England. Troughing seen over the past couple of days will be quickly exiting northeastward as zonal flow and ridging begins to take shape across the eastern 1/3rd of the US.
Cooler low-level thermo profiles will lead to highs some 8-10 deg. Lows will be below normal in the low 50s W where cloudiness increases, to mid 40s E, where drier air persists Wed morn. This trough is not very impressive or deep, but it could be enough to combine with moisture in place to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to mainly the Delta.
Not planning to touch the ongoing freeze warning and frost advisory since there may be a small window towards daybreak where temperatures may dip near freezing, especially for counties under the freeze warning. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the clouds, falling into the lower to middle 40s. PoPs will increase from west to east during the day Wednesday, as the trailing cold front begins to move into the region. Temperatures will not fall much on Wednesday night, however, with values only dropping into the lower 50s.
High pressure will be over the region today bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures as highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A warm front will into the region on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms moving across the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warm with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. A cold front will approach the region Wednesday night with more showers and thunderstorms moving through the Mid-South.
728 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Temperatures are quickly warming well above freezing across much of the forecast area, so canned the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory early. Not planning to touch the ongoing freeze warning and frost advisory since there may be a small window towards daybreak where temperatures may dip near freezing, especially for counties under the freeze warning. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the clouds, falling into the lower to middle 40s. PoPs will increase from west to east during the day Wednesday, as the trailing cold front begins to move into the region. Temperatures will not fall much on Wednesday night, however, with values only dropping into the lower 50s.
Lows near freezing Tuesday morning. This system will gradually lift northeastward and weak ridging will develop during the day today. As the ridge builds in, winds should begin to diminish. In our southwestern zones, earlier clearing may allow for temperatures to drop near or below freezing. The ridge that's building in is not expected to linger.
Highs on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees warmer than today, or close to average for this time of year.
721 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Aviation - Light Snow Ending This Morning - Upper troughing will progress east through this morning with ridging quickly moving in place for today. High pressure will slide in by this afternoon cutting off moisture and ending any lingering precipitation by the late morning.
High pressure continues to fill in overnight with light winds expected. High temperatures start in the low 80s for Wednesday and rise upper 80s for the weekend.
PoPs wl be enhanced further Wed into Wed night as a shrtwv trof and assocd sfc warm fnt move into the area.
Following the frontal boundary, a high pressure system will slide to our east and build in the Atlantic Ocean tightening the pressure gradient.
High pressure and clear skies were found across the area this morning. Temperatures ranged from the upper 20s to the low 30s. High pressure will seize the day today. Discussion: Northwest flow will transition to weak ridging during the day to eventually southwest flow late in the period. High pressure is centered over Iowa this morning and will move south and east through the day. Upper ridge gets pushed east on Wednesday, as the next upper low crashes through the region. This will help to supply much of the moisture through the day ahead of a slow moving cold front. Rain chances go down in the evening and Wednesday night, as the cold front passes through.
628 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Dry Canadian high pressure will dominate today through Wed with below normal temps and even a threat of patchy frost well inland early Wed morning.
Highs will be cooler today behind the front, ranging from the low-mid 70s along the Volusia/Brevard coast, the upper 70s over the Treasure Coast, and upper 70s to low 80s across the interior.
956 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Surface analysis late this morning shows a strong and large area of high pressure centered over MO/AR. This high extended east through the deep south and north into the upper midwest. A deep area of low pressure was found over the northeastern states. Northwest surface flow was in place across the area with dew point temps mainly in the lower 30s. Models today suggest that the ridging to the west will make slow progress eastward. Lows near freezing Tuesday morning. This system will gradually lift northeastward and weak ridging will develop during the day today. As the ridge builds in, winds should begin to diminish. In our southwestern zones, earlier clearing may allow for temperatures to drop near or below freezing. The ridge that's building in is not expected to linger.
Very cool temps starting off this morning, hopefully most areas avoiding freezing conditions with vegetation actively growing. Based on observations at this writing, appears most temps at airports are above freezing but suspect some higher elevation valleys may be getting close.
Temperatures will be nice for this time of year with the low clouds keeping highs in the 70s and 80s east of the Pecos River, more seasonal highs will be seen farther west.
These winds will decrease as high pressure ridging across the upper Midwest into the lower MS valley shifts east. Temperatures will reach highs in the lower 60s in valley areas with middle to upper 50s atop the highest plateau areas. High pressure will shift east tonight into the Mid-Atlantic area. Currently expect lows only to drop into the 38 to 40 degree range in those locations, with warmer temperatures in the lower 40s expected further west. Wednesday looks warmer, as zonal flow returns to the area and southerly flow in the boundary layer around the high pressure returns.
Windy conditions are expected for the area over the next few days as a stacked low pressure system moves across the Canadian prairies. East winds this morning will turn west this afternoon as a warm front associated with the low tracks eastward across the state. Overnight a cold front drops out of Canada, with winds turning northwest on Wednesday afternoon. There is some potential for freezing rain as temperatures drop, but for now just kept rain and snow in the forecast. Warm front will lift across the region today with winds turning from east to west through the day.
12z NAM remains consistent showing low pressure deepening to near 990 mb near Limon, Colorado late this afternoon. South winds will continue to gust 30-40 mph through about midnight, before diminishing more and trending SWly after midnight, as low pressure arrives along the I-70 corridor by sunrise Wednesday.
131 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022 A broad northwest flow aloft was in place this afternoon with a 5h ridge axis exiting the Plains. This will start a string of warm and "mostly dry" days as a persistent surface and 8h ridge parks over the Carolinas into AL. This occurs as a low level jet across the lower MS valley veers to the southwest while a decaying MCS basically falls apart across the lower TN valley.
419 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 High pressure building into the Ohio Valley by this evening.
Conditions will be much more conducive to see frost formation in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia as overnight lows drop near freezing.
Behind a cold front that passed this morning, unstable and breezy conditions will linger through the evening. High pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday, bringing warmer and drier conditions.
A few hi-res models support precipitation chances moving from northwest to southeast across the area Wednesday as a cold frontal boundary tracks through the area. Highs will range from the mid 30s north to the low 50s south.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 71 56 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 73 53 77 53 / 0 0 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 72 53 75 52 / 0 0 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 70 48 73 50 / 0 0 10 10 0.
/Updated at 0101 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022/ High pressure will move across the southeast today with mostly clear skies. Tonight, as the high pressure moves towards the east coast, low and mid level winds will transition to out of the east. As the southeasterly winds bring moisture and warmer air.
An upper trof over the far eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic through Wednesday. 8 inches by Wednesday afternoon, with the higher values over the far western portion. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 40s well inland to the lower to mid 50s at the coast.
An upper trough will move inland today. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the weekend.
The clear skies will not last very long though, as high clouds ahead of an approaching warm front. There is still some snow and frozen lakes in the Northwoods area, so low temperatures should fall into the low to mid 20s there.
237 PM MDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Fairly active flow pattern will persist in the period as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS and eventually supports another deep sfc cyclone in the Northern Plains this weekend. Very dry BL will support a dry fropa, with the best chance for precip arriving late tonight as the main upper trough advects into the FA. Best chance for precip will be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the northern BH, with sct activity elsewhere. Secondary impulse will support another weak trough through the region Wed.
130 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Dry Canadian high pressure will dominate today through Wed with below normal temps and even a threat of patchy frost well inland early Wed morning.
Upper level ridging continued to build in through the day while at the surface, low pressure pushed eastward into the area, tightening the surface pressure gradient. Otherwise, despite the the strong southerly flow, temperatures remained on the cooler side (40s and 50s) owing to expansive cloud cover. A low level jet/850 mb moisture transport will strengthen overnight with isentropic ascent expected to contribute to shower development ahead of the low.
Drier, cooler air will settle into the region as we enter mid-week providing for sunnier skies. As an area of high pressure builds north of the region, it will create a gradient with low pressure to the south and east as the front stalls that will keep the region breezy through Wednesday and into later portions of the week.
By late afternoon, a dryline will advance east into central Oklahoma while a cold front sags south to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along the dryline to the west, but the more likely scenario is for a few strong to severe storms to form along the advancing cold front as sunset approaches Wednesday, with these storms affecting mainly northeast Oklahoma and possibly northwest Arkansas Wednesday evening before weakening overnight.
Lingering cumulus will continue to dissipate later this afternoon into early this evening as the upper low lifts up into eastern Canada, and high pressure moves over the area tonight and overnight. On Wednesday high pressure will slide off to the east over the Mid Atlantic during the day, and then moves off the coast during the evening. With the low level flow becoming S/SE, expecting much warmer temps with afternoon highs ranging from the middle 60s across the Bluegrass, to upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.
1232 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Dry Canadian high pressure will dominate today through Wed with below normal temps and even a threat of patchy frost well inland early Wed morning. Highs in the low to mid 60s still on track for this afternoon with a chance of frost tonight as temperatures dip down into the upper 30s to around 40.
Downstream broad mid level ridging was noted across the Great Plains. This pattern favors troughing in the lee of the Rockies which surface obs show along with ridging over the MS river valley. Forecast soundings show good low level moisture advection causing a stable saturated layer in the low levels.
Speeds will remain up tonight, though with a bit less in the higher end gustiness.
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 A ridge of high pressure currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to expand eastward the next several days, and eventually settle along the eastern seaboard and Western Atlantic waters. High pressure will cause breezy/windy conditions resulting in a Small Craft Advisory for most of our marine zones now through most of the weekend.
Lows tonight will be mild, ranging from the lower 50s across southern Arkansas to the lower 60s across East Texas. Highs Wednesday will be warm, ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Moist air will remain in place in the low levels of the atmosphere resulting in a mostly cloudy and warm night with lows mainly in the 60s.