Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SPLIT BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY HEADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
857 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME AND LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE.
A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL BACKING OF WINDS WILL BE GREATEST. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT.
A WARM FRONT IS HARD TO PRECISELY LOCATE BUT WAS MOVING INTO THE SAN JUANS THIS LATE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OVERRUN BY A 125KT JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
910 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS SET UP FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 3/4 MILES AT MINOT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MUGGY MID/UPPER 70S EAST COAST AND IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MUGGY UPPER 70S EAST COAST TO THE LOW/MID 70S GULF COAST. AND AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH YEAR'S END WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP COLD FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA, MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. ANY COOL AIR IN SIGHT? WELL, GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL CHANGE AROUND NEW YEARS DAY OR SO WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT THEN.
ALSO MADE SOME UPGRADES TO THE HIGHLIGHTS FROM ADVISORIES TO WARNINGS AND HOISTED A WARNING FOR UT ZONE 22. A WARM FRONT IS HARD TO PRECISELY LOCATE BUT WAS MOVING INTO THE SAN JUANS THIS LATE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OVERRUN BY A 125KT JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AND UPPER RIDGING SUPPRESSED ANY LINGERING STORMS.
A large upper trough remains over the western and central US this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible, especially in our eastern counties closer to the center of the high.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. WITH WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO SD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND ECM. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. AND IS SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF ON CHRISTMAS.
737 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 3/4 MILES AT MINOT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE MON OR TUE.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP BAND LIFTING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ELONGATED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ALONG WITH THE TROF. SO NO APPRECIABLE SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
855 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
1052 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF AN ESTABLISHED RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A LEE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OWING TO SUBSTANTIAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
1131 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE LOW/TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODELS ALL HAVE A WEAK DRY SLOT GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN THEN MOVING INTO AREA AFTER 06Z AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN LAKES REGION AND PULLS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO AREA. FAVOR LOWS ON THE COOLER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.
THE APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ WILL SOON BRING MVFR/IFR/CIGS/VSBY FM W TO E FRI THRU THE WKND AND MON W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE E PAC AND GULF OVERRUNNING.
Weak upper ridging will continue our dry, quiet weather tonight into tomorrow. A dissipating surface cold front will drop southward tonight and slowly wash out as it drifts into the I-64 corridor. Friday night low pressure crossing Minnesota and Wisconsin will swing a cold front into the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will stay up ahead of the approaching system, with lows ranging from the middle 50s in the eastern Blue Grass to the lower and middle 60s along and west of Interstate 65.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s across the entire Tri-State region.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW AND PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TOWARD AND AFTER 16Z AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
Winds will generally be from a southerly direction tonight through tomorrow morning then shift to more of a northerly direction by tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas.
An upper low over Colorado will lift into northwestern Nebraska overnight.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LANDSCAPE.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE RIGHT AT FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A MAJORITY OF CITIES SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST BY THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES WITH PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TOMORROW DUE TO ENHANCES CLOUD COVER. WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF AN ESTABLISHED RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A LEE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OWING TO SUBSTANTIAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
806 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE. THOUGH SOME ENHANCED AREAS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CONTDVD. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN PAINTING SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE SLV OVERNIGHT. 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MTS.
1013 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE 23Z HRRR INDICATED FOG IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND PART OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
1214 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
1102 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY KINEMATICS AT THE MOMENT WITH NOTED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN CO UPPER LOW AND SUB- TROPICAL STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST. RAW MODELS SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. DAY TIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST ONCE AGAIN.
BUT THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BILLINGS WRIGHT A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF COUPLED FORCING ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
However, still expect it to slowly lift back north as a warm front this evening before upper level trof/main system begins to slide east towards forecast area.
SWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE TROF AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE IS BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS OLD MEXICO INTO THE WRN GULF AND NWRN GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST ACRS TX.
UPPER LOW HAD MOVED TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AND MAY SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE DRY SLOT/COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OCCURRING ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR.
LOW PRESSURE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC. WITH A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT DANGLED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH QUEBEC. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING ITS NORTHEAST TREK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
918 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2015 The region will radiate out well tonight and Friday night with freezing temperatures possible.
WILL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE LOWEST COASTAL ROADS AROUND HIGH TIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP FROM AGITATED CU ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM CLOVIS TO TATUM ARE PROVING FUTILE SO FAR AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTH OF THIS AREA OF INTEREST. LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS APPEAR ON TRACK TO END IN A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHIELD OF HEAVIER PRECIP.
608 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE RIGHT AT FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A MAJORITY OF CITIES SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST BY THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES WITH PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
1035 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE LOW/TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODELS ALL HAVE A WEAK DRY SLOT GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
THE ROBUST AUTUMN SUN HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES GET A TOUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. WE'RE GONNA SEE THE HIGH MOVE OUT. STILL FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON THE LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT AREA OF AT LEAST A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW CURRENTLY. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT LOOKING TO BE A LITTLE SLOW TO EXIT.
731 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
19Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low over the AZ/NM boarder with a low of dry mid level air wrapping up into the low. Have trended highs for Friday warmer due to a lack of cold air advection for the bulk of the day. If the sun breaks out earlier in the day, highs could be a couple degrees warmer than the mid 70s that are forecast. Continued some low thunderstorm chances for the evening hours as surface trof and wind shift could provide just enough low level lift for a storm to get going before shifting to our east and south.
728 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY.
SO GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OF INTEREST LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
926 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
1044 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A DEEP LONG-WAVE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
616 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A warm and breezy afternoon is in progress across the region, as a tightening pressure gradient continues to develop over the area ahead of an area of upper level low pressure over northeastern Colorado. Lows tonight should be rather mild, with readings in the low to mid 60s.
927 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
954 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
837 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 ROTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SWINGING THE RAIN BAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SWRN AND SC SD. THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP BAND LIFTING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ELONGATED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ALONG WITH THE TROF. SO NO APPRECIABLE SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, FROST IS EXPECTED IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
1009 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THE CLOSED LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT SAN JUANS AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BUT AGAIN. A RESIDUAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR RECYCLING OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE HANGS ON BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND NUDGE TO THE EAST TOWARD THE COAST WITH EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK BY WAY OF SOME MORNING STRATUS AND DAY TIME CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATING OVERALL WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE RETREATING RIDGE AND WARM MOIST RETURN FLOW AIR INTO THE STATE.
716 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
742 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A NORTHEAST WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. /ISSUED 358 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST. ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
730 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
1033 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
538 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB.
610 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NEB WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE LOW/TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODELS ALL HAVE A WEAK DRY SLOT GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 70S SOUTHWEST.
616 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF COUPLED FORCING ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS.
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A warm and breezy afternoon is in progress across the region, as a tightening pressure gradient continues to develop over the area ahead of an area of upper level low pressure over northeastern Colorado. Lows tonight should be rather mild, with readings in the low to mid 60s.
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION FOR CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.
717 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM /UPPER LOW/ THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTN.