Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Relatively quiet weather has prevailed today, as the strong upper trough over the Central Plains inhibited most of the moisture inflow into the area. Visible satellite imagery shows Cu mid-level clouds developing this afternoon, ahead of a weak cold front currently over central SD. A cold front will be moving across central SD into central Minnesota in the evening and overnight hours. It will be even warmer than today, with very warm 850 temperatures from 20 to 25 C. A fairly low probability for any convection Wednesday evening, but still possible that a few boundaries from prior convection could remain and fester, only under air aloft that is slightly warmer than today.
Southeast Texas will still be under the influence of upper ridging with the same shower/storm inhibitors in place tomorrow afternoon.
947 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A pleasant evening acrs much of southwest LA and southeast TX for watching fireworks with nearly clear skies, temperatures in the lower 80s and light south winds. This as low pressure now advancing into west Missouri maintains a northeast track, while a lingering southwest oriented trof gradually deepens and edges southeast toward and eventually into the area. Scenario suggests a weakening of dry high pressure aloft over the region that has been providing effective capping. Moisture currently confined predominantly to the lower levels will be increasing aloft. High pressure ridging across the northwest gulf will maintain light southerlies and low seas.
An unseasonably cool and saturated boundary layer for early July exists beneath an upper level low pressure. I favor low cigs vs fog in this scenario based on the high BL RH. Finally, some scattered showers will remain possible on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon hours, across much of the region as the upper low will be slow to move away. /Issued 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ Slow moving upper cyclone was located over far northeast OK this afternoon. although still may have some lingering convection into the afternoon as the trof axis is slow to clear.
739 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will build to the north through early Wednesday morning, then pass off the New England coast later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
This would support highs in the low to mid 90s. with a long wave trough between them over the Great Lakes region. Then the upper level flow will become more northerly by mid-week as the high center begins to shift towards the east. Meanwhile on the surface, high pressure moving into the Southeastern part of the United States, along with a boundary just north of it will, will produce a southerly winds component throughout most of the period.
A larger complex of showers/rain along with some embedded tstms, associated with a broader upper trough pattern over the Midwest states, was gradually spreading ewd over W TN/NW MS. As mentioned in the section above, a broad upper trough located over the Ozarks will slowly creep toward western Tennessee overnight.
/28/ This Evening through Tomorrow: We've had a few isolated showers and brief thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area today, but chances will remain on the low side through tonight and into tomorrow. Most shower and storm activity this evening should stay closer to the upper low currently moving through Missouri and Arkansas, so have greater POPs confined to our southeast Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi counties. The upper low will shear out over the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow, but there will continue to be at least a chance for additional showers and storms across parts of our area as the system weakens.
550 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Aviation Section Updated With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to lower 100s over the next several days.
Easterly flow in the low to mid levels and also aloft has allowed convection to move west of east central FL through the evening hours. Low level ridge axis across the northern sections with E-SE flow. Position of ridge axis will allow earlier inland push of east coast sea breeze in the south, with highest coverage over the inland sections late afternoon. SE/S winds to around 10 knots around the Atlc ridge with seas 2 ft near shore and up to 2-3 ft well offshore.
High pressure drifting through the eastern Great Lakes will then maintain favorable influence on aviation conditions in SE Michigan. Light easterly wind will become light south as high pressure moves farther away from the region by Wednesday night.
847 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper low continues to slowly move east, and was centered over southwest Missouri this evening. Expect the upper low to continue slowly meandering east with an overall decrease in coverage of showers across northwest Arkansas overnight. An unseasonably cool and saturated boundary layer for early July exists beneath an upper level low pressure. I favor low cigs vs fog in this scenario based on the high BL RH. Finally, some scattered showers will remain possible on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon hours, across much of the region as the upper low will be slow to move away. /Issued 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ Slow moving upper cyclone was located over far northeast OK this afternoon. although still may have some lingering convection into the afternoon as the trof axis is slow to clear.
748 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Water vapor imagery shows strong upper ridge over the area, with recent H5 analysis indicating height rises. Some high cloud is streaming over the ridge, but otherwise weather will be quiet with another night of mild temperatures. Ridge axis rebuilding over western portions of the state tonight with surface pressure falling east of the continental divide. Real forecast challenge comes in the late afternoon as a weak disturbance slides over the ridge axis and tries to trigger convection over the western zones 21-00z.
Rather, a combination of patchy fog and stratus build down on ridges looks more likely.
The low- levels are moist with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 87 / 50 40 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 71 85 / 50 40 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 86 71 85 / 50 40 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 69 83 / 60 50 50 60.
A strong upper level ridge will remain over much of the western US for the next several days with an upper trough over the northeastern Pacific.
1153 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Weak low pressure over central Kentucky continues to spin up scattered showers and rotate them southeast in areas along to the east of the Lakes.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as ridge of high pressure remains in place, there may be slightly more moisture to work with as drier airmass aloft moistens a bit and expect widely scattered coverage of storms inland during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breezes push inland once again.
High pressure over the region continues. Temperatures are generally running a couple of degrees warmer than last night. Overnight lows should be similar to last night in the north and a couple degrees warmer from around Sacramento southward due to both slightly warmer airmass and monsoonal moisture that will be moving up from the south late tonight. Water vapor imagery and model analysis indicated a broad ridge over the Great Basin with plenty of dry air moving into northern California. Upper level high pressure ridge over the Great Basin will continue to stagnate through the week and into the weekend as the main upper level jet flow remains well to the north of the forecast area. Model atmospheric profiles indicate some instability for the Sierra ridges south of Highway 50 Wednesday afternoon and evening, so some thunderstorm development is possible.
918 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The upper ridge, to our south and east, will build northward some over the forecast area. Models continue to indicate a strong ridge over the W CONUS, with upper trough deepening and shifting east into the E CONUS.
723 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and reach New England on Wednesday. The high will leave a ridge extending west over Lake Erie through the day.
1056 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will build to the north through early Wednesday morning, then pass off the New England coast later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
741 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure located over the northern Great Lakes will build into the North Country with clear skies and light winds expected.
Temperatures will be able to fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s tonight as cooler and drier air comes into Southern Michigan, NW Ohio and northeastern portions of northern Indiana. Dry air remains around the region for Wednesday as well as only a late day outside chance at a shower or storm and highs in the low to mid 80s.
1005 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure and dry air dominate the forecast area. With the low lower dewpoints from the afternoon (upper 40s to lower 50s), and the low temperatures tonight, am not expecting any fog issues over the region. Clear skies and temperatures in the lower 50s are expected for the rest of the night. Temperatures not as cool as the previous few nights due to warmer daytime highs and overall airmass modification, so lows generally in the 50s (possibly upper 40s in the coolest locations). This will result in high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s in upper Michigan to the lower-middle 80s over northern lower.
Model soundings do not show a complete decoupling of the low levels tonight with light winds at the surface.
1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Under partly cloudy skies and east winds of around 10 mph, temperatures in the lower 80s. Surface wise, a two prong western Atlantic ridge extends across south and north Florida, resulting in mostly east winds of around 10 knots except slightly higher on the Straits of Florida.
726 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The upper ridge, to our south and east, will build northward some over the forecast area. Models continue to indicate a strong ridge over the W CONUS, with upper trough deepening and shifting east into the E CONUS.
943 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and reach New England on Wednesday. The high will leave a ridge extending west over Lake Erie through the day.
High pressure to the northeast of the region will bring quiet weather tonight into most of Wednesday. High pressure is expected to continue to slide eastward across the central and eastern Great Lakes region tonight and Wednesday. Onshore flow with the high will continue to keep dry air over the area during this period, and will result in quiet weather.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level ridge of high pressure building across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border. Recent temperature trends have been slower to warm this afternoon, and as as result the highs have been gradually adjusted downward only a few degrees. Large upper high and ridge remaining anchored across the central Rockies/Great Basin area during the latter half of the week into the weekend; a pattern suggestive of high CAPE and low shear/weak steering flow for any convective development.
720 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The upper ridge, to our south and east, will build northward some over the forecast area. Models continue to indicate a strong ridge over the W CONUS, with upper trough deepening and shifting east into the E CONUS. Convergence into a lee-side trough and differential heating boundaries associated with areas of cloudiness earlier today plus strong heating supports thunderstorms.
1026 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will build to the north through early Wednesday morning, then pass off the New England coast later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
351 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 A deep upper level trough will dig into southern California today. Temperatures should be even a little warmer than yesterday with highs between 85 and 88 degrees.
Looking ahead into this upcoming week, a weak ridge of high pressure will gradually build through the middle of the week and weather is looking quite pleasant.
Pattern is characterized by deep troughing over Hudson Bay, a sprawling upper ridge over the central plains and a cut off upper low over southern California. The pattern does deamplify slightly through the period but the area will continue to be dominated by upper ridging. Surface front will begin to lift to the northeast today in the form of a warm front but it will wash out with time.
314 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain precipitation chances early this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. A mid/upper trough should maintain rain chances across the area early this morning. Some of the higher elevations could see some light snow with cold advection, though any accumulation is expected to be minor.
An upper level trough continues to slowly move westward across southern Canada overnight. Still some light precipitation occurring overnight in far eastern Oregon under the southerly flow ahead of the trough. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as a flat ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
321 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough across the ern U. with a ridge in the Rockies and plains this morning. With how dry the low level airmass is today, this will allow colder temperatures for tonight and also allow a greater range in temperatures as well.
452 AM MDT Sun May 7 2017 Moisture will increase a bit today, but will still mainly be at mid and upper levels with drier air in the lower part of the atmosphere. Slightly cooler and drier air will move in behind the afternoon wave. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with slight airmass cooling and more cloud cover.
For tomorrow, the lee trof will deepen with a tighter pressure gradient across the forecast district. On Monday, there is only a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the western and northwestern zones along the frontal boundary/lee trof. The mid level ridge dominates to the east, so this activity shouldn't drift that far.
350 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Quiet and cool conditions will continue today into Monday as high pressure builds in.
447 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 (Today and Tonight) The flow aloft over the forecast area will begin backing to the southwest through tomorrow as the upper ridge over the area moves eastward in response to a developing upper low over southern California.
415 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Upper ridge shifting east away from the Panhandles today while the closed upper low over southern California continues to approach the forecast area this week. With 500 mb heights falling and increasing high level cloudiness with southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles today, went slightly cooler than MOS guidance for high temps today. Closed upper low to track slowly east and southeast across the northwest portions of Mexico and across the extreme southern portions of the southwestern states early this week before finally lifting north and east across the southern Rockies and northern portions of the forecast area around the middle of the week.
341 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure is hovering over the Central Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula, and the Flroida Keys.
126 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough across the ern U. with a ridge in the Rockies and plains this morning. With how dry the low level airmass is today, this will allow colder temperatures for tonight and also allow a greater range in temperatures as well.
627 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Strong low pressure over New England will continue moving away from the region. A cold front will bring another chance for active weather by the end of the week. Upper level trough remains over the region but showers have moved out of the area. Complex blocking pattern will begin to break down around the middle of the week. Pattern consist of an upper ridge over the central part of the country and upper trough over both the eastern states and the Desert Southwest. The trough over the eastern conus will slowly lift northeast through mid-week allowing the upper ridge to slide eastward. Dry weather will persist tonight trough Monday night.
255 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 At the surface, high pressure extends from the Ontario-Manitoba border to the central Gulf of Mexico, with an upper ridge over the Plains states.
After a relatively cool start this morning, we will see another day of temperatures a few degrees below normal in the low-mid 80s.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions today along with warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ WV imagery shows the highly-amplified ridge moving directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in temps approaching normal at just after 17Z, and set to top out in the 90s most locations later this afternoon. Out west, a developing upper trough off the CA coast is muscling onshore, and pushing the ridge east. Latest models continue taking the upper trough down the west coast, only a little further south of the border than 24 hours ago, to near Baja CA Sur by 18Z Monday. Models are in much better agreement on track and timing of the trough, taking it to central NM by 18Z Wed, deeper and further SE than 24 hours ago.
The main concern for this period will be the low level wind shear.
South to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 40s west and around 50 east. Blending better performing bias corrected grids and full mixing at 850mb supports highs in the lower to upper 80s.
154 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. Light rain should continue overnight as an upper low drifts east across the area. Some of the higher elevations could see a period of light snow or a rain/snow mix as cold advection continues, though only minor accumulation is expected. The precip should taper off toward morning from W-E as the low begins to exit. As the upper low that has been resident over the area for days gradually shifts northeastward, northwesterly flow looks to become established over the area.
221 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure axis currently providing mostly clear skies to the forecast area early this morning.
131 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Scattered showers associated with an upper level low over the eastern U.
331 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 This morning's surface analysis shows 1012 hPa high pressure extending all the way from the Gulf of Mexico northward into portions of Canada. Above the surface, 500 hPa height analysis depicts a cutoff low over southern California helping to build the downstream ridge centered over the Continental Divide. Additionally, an elongated, neutral tilt trough was centered over the East Coast.
257 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Another warm and quiet day is in store as we remain beneath upper ridging. The omega-style blocking pattern we've been experiencing will finally begin breaking down on Monday as the downstream upper low moves northward.
/ISSUED 648 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ VFR conditions will prevail through the period as dry air remains in place across the region under the influence of upper-level ridging. A high amplitude ridge will make for slow changes in the short term with minimal cloud cover expected tonight.
645 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Quiet and cool conditions will continue today into Monday as high pressure builds in.
355 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Quiet and cool conditions will continue today into Monday as high pressure builds in.
613 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Drying out and remaining cool under increasing high pressure influences through Monday. A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. Clouds and remaining rain showers/mountain snow showers will exit this morning as upper level low pulls eastward. With a dry airmass in place, insolation will help the max temps along today wile 850mb temps reside in the low single digits. The temperatures tonight are easily there in the low to mid 30s. The deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation lifts out Monday.
219 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 The large area of high pressure at the surface remains centered over western Ontario this morning with its ridge axis extending well south into the middle Mississippi River Valley. The dry north flow around this high has dropped the dew points into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the entire area. Dew points expected to drop some more through the day as the high continues to push drier air into the area and with some decent mixing, drier air from aloft will also be brought down. Looks like these should be in the lower to middle 20s for much of the day along and northeast of Interstate 94.
409 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Mid/upper level ridging remains in place over the forecast area, wedged between two rather potent troughs; one over the Appalachian region in the northeast CONUS and another trough just coming on shore over southern California.
The cold front has mostly cleared the TN Valley with its current location mainly along a NW to SE to E line from near Jasper, AL to Gadsden, AL to Atlanta-Hartsfield International Airport. Otherwise, also made some minor tweaks to the temperatures to account for the trend behind the frontal passage--which is actually warmer than originally forecast in some locations over NW AL. as the vort max over the Carolinas ejects northeastward off the mid-Atlantic coast and into the Canadian maritimes, while a high-amplitude ridge translates eastward over the central Plains. as models suggest that both the ridge to our west and a cutoff low over northern New England/southern Quebec will exhibit little if any movement.
The area resides near the periphery of an upper low centered in southern Calif and an upper trough near the ID panhandle. The split system will slowly shift east through tonight resulting in a drying trend as an upper ridge nudges in from Oregon. The ridge will also bring a warming trend through Monday with highs returning to near normal.
536 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure axis currently providing mostly clear skies to the forecast area early this morning.
347 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 The high amplitude 500mb ridge stretching from TX up through the western Dakotas and far northern Canada will build directly over the forecast area 03-18Z Monday.
319 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017 High amplitude ridge continues to slowly translate across the Plains with several more days of warm and dry weather ahead. Upper low currently moving ashore southern California will make slow eastward progress and begin to influence the Southern Plains by mid week.
The 11 pm subjective surface analysis showed a 1016 mb high centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, and a weak, dry cold front from central GA through central KS. Temperatures and dewpoints will be a little cooler across our northern counties behind this front. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed our forecast area was under drying, sinking northwest flow aloft, as a deep long wave trough over much of the eastern CONUS began lifting northeastward.
500 AM MDT Sun May 7 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge extending through the western Dakotas is beginning to break down with mid and high level moisture being pushed northward through the Rocky Mountains. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure in southeastern Montana with a lee trough extending through eastern Wyoming and a warm front developing across western South Dakota.