Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At 252 PM, a broad cut off upper low continued to swirl over central Montana, resulting in unsettled weather in the Rockies, western Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level ridging remained in control further east with the axis of the ridge stretching from Oklahoma to central Iowa. The ridge was the primary player locally, and as a result our skies were fair, breezes were consistent from the south and temperatures were near 80 degrees. Early in the Week: The closed low over Montana will transition into an open wave as it moves gradually east through the Northern Plains early in the week. The primary weather concern on Monday will be a combination of breezy southerly winds, dry fuels and low relative humidity that will push afternoon fire dangers into the high or very high categories.
1139 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The upper level low that was over southeast ID has north-northeast into northwest WY early this morning. The main trough axis extended into northeast NV/northwest UT. The upper level low will continue to move north into central MT today, with the trough axis south through western WY. A similar environmental setup is forecast Monday, with the potential for isolated strong storms as the trough and accompanying Pacific front shift east across the CWA. Cooler temperatures will filter into the region Monday night with overnight lows dropping into the lower and mid 30s west of the Laramie Range.
247 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Key Messages: - Remaining warm Monday - Turning much cooler by the end of the week An upper level stout ridge continues to reign supreme tonight and tomorrow. Anomalous heights at 850&700mb under this ridge reach >+2. A large scale pattern shift is expected to occur later this week as the current ridging aloft breaks down with northwest flow developing by the end of the week.
1231 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Upper trough remains over the eastern U. Today, while a dry cold front moves southward across our area. (through Tonight) A cold front will slowly move south southeast across the area through Tonight. The front will push to the south of the area towards dawn on Monday, as high pressure builds to the northwest.
255 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 During the short term forecast period, omega block ridging is expected to continue, as a cutoff low with remnant moisture from Ian remains stalled over the Mid-Atlantic.
As the low begins to push east Monday night, cooler air will begin to filter in resulting in some cooler lows on Monday night. Expect overnight temperatures to range from the low 40s across Sheridan county to the mid 50s east of US-281.
217 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The mid/upper level low that has been over the area for the past couple of days has drifted north somewhat, now centered in southern Montana. Tomorrow the low will continue to become more progressive, shifting farther east. The northwest flow keeps temperatures across eastern areas a few degrees cooler than today; elsewhere a few degrees warmer.
233 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Upper level Low is currently located over central Montana. Most of today the Low brought in a dry slot in our mid and upper levels over most of the CWA. The Low tracks northeast overnight into a position to pull in some wrap around moisture and bring a few showers over the area tonight and lasting into Monday afternoon with the Low exiting the area by Monday night.
- Much cooler air is expected to arrive by the end of the work week. Discussion: Our region remains underneath mid level ridging sandwiched between a nearly stagnant closed low over the Intermountain West and the low associated with the remnants of Ian over Appalachia/the Mid Atlantic.
A ridge of high pressure currently above the Pacific Coast will strengthen the next few days. The strengthening ridge will become an omega block which will keep things dry and drive up temperatures.
(This evening through Monday) A weak upper low that has been sitting over northern Sonora the past several days will begin to phase in to the long wave trough over the Rockies tonight. This trough will become increasingly sharp and move east on Monday but will likely still be too far west to have a significant impact on the region. The large upper level trough over the Rockies will again induce weak surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico on Monday afternoon.
This has kept temperatures modestly in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. This is because after Ian made yet another landfall across the Carolinas a couple of days ago now, the remains became wedged between two ridges on either side. In addition to the northerly flow, this blocking feature has allowed for unusually drier air to filer in across the region.
(This afternoon through Monday night) An upper low/trough is centered over Montana with another, smaller, upper low over Northern Mexico. The upper trough will begin to move over the Northern and Central Plains on Monday. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely be a degree or two cooler across much of the area on Monday with highs only in the lower to mid 80s across the Permian Basin. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s across the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s across the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos.
Cooler air is being funneled in as a result, which dries our airmass out. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 50s for SE AL and SW GA, generally the mid 50s for the inland FL, and the upper 50s to near 60 along the coast. High temperatures are to make it into the low to mid 80s tomorrow under mainly sunny skies and be accompanied with refreshing northeasterly winds.
1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Quiet weather will continue to encompass the region today through Monday night, as upper level high pressure remains entrenched over the region.
Low level clouds associated with a upper level closed low continues to provide cloudy and overcast skies through this afternoon into the early evening hours. Light scattered rain showers across Southwest and Central Montana are expected during the early evening hours as the low begins to shift eastward. The low continues moving east overnight through Monday morning.
(This evening through Monday Night) High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will keep conditions warm and dry in the short term. But we do think tonight will be a little warmer than last night and that Monday night will be a little warmer than tonight.
Reimer Latest water vapor imagery has the upper low centered over Yellowstone National Park early this morning. Areas of isolated to scattered showers continue to rotate around the low and across portions of the area. As the low gradually lifts north and east into southern Montana today, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. With the low moving overhead, there is better potential for some thunderstorms, especially over far southeast Montana this afternoon and evening. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect the area through Monday, with the greatest precipitation chances over southeastern areas, as the low slowly spins east. Precipitation totals through Monday will generally be up to a half an inch with the highest totals near the mountains and foothills, as well as over southeast Montana.
(This evening through Monday) Another quiet day ahead with clear skies, warmer than average temperatures, and light easterly/southeasterly winds across the region.
The low pressure system will move off to the east tonight causing a decrease in clouds. A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. Clouds and lingering light showers will be moving out of the region tonight as the low pressure system moves off to the east. Fair flying conditions are expected across the region on Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
Will continue using NBM 10th %ile for tonight's lows, which are near or just slightly higher than persistence, as stagnant surface ridging remains in place. Lacy (Monday through Sunday) Current omega blocking pattern will finally begin to break down and progress along this coming week, transitioning to an amplified positive PNA pattern toward the end of the week.
Lingering vorticity advection will allow for light rain showers to continue east of Allegheny County and in the ridges, gradually moving out of the area. Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley through mid-week. VFR conditions under a mostly clear sky will then dominate tonight and into Monday as high pressure eventually builds. VFR is expected until restriction potential returns with a late Thu cold front.
211 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Some clouds associated with an upper low north of the area will remain across the area through today. Drier conditions develop Monday through mid-week as the low moves further offshore and high pressure builds into the area with continued cooler than normal temperatures. A cold front will pass by the end of the week, with temperatures returning to below for the weekend. A closed upper level low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic States will very slowly move off the coast early this week.
320 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Discussion/Marine - Risk for frost tonight A large area of high pressure centered over southern Ontario will funnel a cooler and drier air mass into the CWA for the rest of the afternoon into tonight.
Weather will become busier later this week as a trough rotates through. Could some areas see their first snow accumulation? A dirty high pressure has been in control of the weather across the region. Pieces of energy are ejecting out from a large upper level low pressure over the western third of the country. Each piece of energy is moving into the large high pressure ridge aloft. The high pressure will begin to break down a little as the strong upper level low pressure finally ejects from the mountainous west into the northern plains.
1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 A blocking pattern is in place, with an upper low in the intermountain west, ridging in the central CONUS, and an upper trough in the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern is maintaining high pressure at the surface, keeping clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures in our area. The pattern begins to change Monday as the Mid-Atlantic trough begins to shift offshore.
234 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 High pressure fixed firmly in place over the Great Lakes and a nearly-stationary flow pattern aloft will allow for a continuation of the dry, seasonable weather we've enjoyed for the last several days. The expansive upper-level low across the intermountain West will slowly advance downstream as a longwave trough across northern Canada seeps south into the CONUS. MRB Temperatures will continue a very gradual climb through the middle of the week as winds veer slowly from out of the east to out of the south with an upper-level trough and attendant cold front approaching the region.
131 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Tranquil weather will continue with upper-level ridging dominating the pattern across the region.
(This evening through Monday Night) Upper air pattern this afternoon features a closed trough centered over Montana, with the remnants of Ian still meandering over North Carolina and Virginia. Between these two features, our area will remain under high pressure. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across the area, which will be pleasant. For Monday, afternoon temperatures will range from around the lower to mid 80s across the region.
Northeast winds gusting 15 to 20 knots will diminish early this evening, as a high pressure center takes residence over northern Lower Michigan. Sprawling high pressure currently anchored over east-central Ontario will offer increasing influence of local conditions over the next several days. A shift in the pressure gradient field and a subsequent southward translation of slightly lower mean thickness readings within prevailing low level northeast flow effectively inducting a weak 'backdoor' cold frontal passage early this morning. Noted cooling within the post-frontal resident thermal profile modestly countered by the high degree of insolation potential. Underlying environment will support lows of middle to upper 30s most locations, with the coldest locations pushing toward the freezing mark. Gradual increase in upper level heights with time as larger scale ridging slowly encroaches from the west offers simply a modest upward trend in temperatures.
1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today and tonight) The remnants of Ian continue to move up the eastern seaboard this morning as high pressure over southern Canada ridges down through the central US and into Texas and Louisiana.
359 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday night) As high pressure sneaks into the area on the backside of a cut off low over the northeast, heights rise slightly which means slightly warmer temps tonight. By slightly, we really just mean in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to lower 60s in southern areas. High temps tomorrow will be in the mid 80s with lows Mon night a few degrees warmer than tonight.
401 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Late Sunday a mid/upper level low lingered over the Piedmont region of VA/NC, with a moisture pool extending as far west as eastern KY. For places which were cloudy on Sunday, the return of sunshine will result in much warmer temperatures on Monday.
Tonight through Monday night A weak upper low over the Sonora desert will help feed moisture into the larger upper trough over the northern Rockies and Utah through this evening. Otherwise quiet conditions persist under WNW flow as a upper ridge slowly approaches NV. As the upper ridge moves closer a warming trend starts the work week as high temperatures will be slightly above normal, ranging from the lower 70s to low 80s.
Aloft, there is a east-west oriented trough extending from a low over the East Coast and back along the Gulf Coast. This trough is drawing some upper-level moisture from Hurricane Orlene near central Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Nudged tonight's low temperatures close to persistence values and near the low end of guidance. High pressure is wedging into the region from the northeast today and we remain between a mid level trough to the east and some ridging to the west. An approaching trough Monday will bring forth a warming trend across the ArkLaMiss. Temperatures through the mid week will gradually increase from the lower to the upper 80s.
With the added cloud cover tomorrow and tomorrow night, highs will be a touch cooler and lows will be a touch warmer.
Cooler late this week with areas of frost possible.
1245 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 A tight pressure gradient will continue today between the remnants of Ian and a large high pressure area sprawling across Canada. The remnants of Hurricane Ian have morphed into a large low pressure area along the east coast. The center of the low had reformed over the warmer waters of the Atlantic in lieu of the original center over North Carolina and Virginia. High pressure will remain over or in the vicinity of the region into the middle of this week.
1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today and tonight) Seasonable, sensible weather is expected today with high temperatures peaking in the lower 80s area-wide as the CWA remains beneath an attenuating mid/upper-level ridge. An expansive closed low remains over the Intermountain West with a barotropic vorticity lobe still meandering over northern Sonora.
Aloft, there is an east-west oriented trough extending from a low pressure system over the East Coast and back along the Gulf Coast. This trough is drawing some upper-level moisture from Hurricane Orlene near central Mexico in the Eastern Pacific, and some high clouds may begin to stream over parts of our forecast area by tonight. This should not significantly inhibit radiational cooling, and Min temps were nudged from NBM values toward a cooler blend of persistence, MOS, and bias-corrected guidance.
High pressure will strengthen over California this week.
607 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 High pressure fixed firmly in place over the Great Lakes and a nearly-stationary flow pattern aloft will allow for a continuation of the dry, seasonable weather we've enjoyed for the last several days. The expansive upper-level low across the intermountain West will slowly advance downstream as a longwave trough across northern Canada seeps south into the CONUS. MRB Temperatures will continue a very gradual climb through the middle of the week as winds veer slowly from out of the east to out of the south with an upper-level trough and attendant cold front approaching the region.
(Monday through Sunday) Current omega blocking pattern will finally begin to break down and progress along this coming week, transitioning to an amplified positive PNA pattern toward the end of the week.
946 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Wx map shows high pressure continuing to build southward from the Great Lakes/SE Canada across the lower Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast.
444 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The mid/upper level low that has been over the area for the past couple of days has drifted north somewhat, now centered in southern Montana. Tomorrow the low will continue to become more progressive, shifting farther east. The northwest flow will keep temperatures across eastern areas a few degrees cooler than today; elsewhere a few degrees warmer.
(This evening through Monday night) As high pressure sneaks into the area on the backside of a cut off low over the northeast, heights rise slightly which means slightly warmer temps tonight. By slightly, we really just mean in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to lower 60s in southern areas. High temps tomorrow will be in the mid 80s with lows Mon night a few degrees warmer than tonight.
With little cloud cover, lows falling into the low to mid 60s.
555 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Tonight) Our region continues to remain largely under the influence of a broad area of high pressure, which is centered well to our north into the northern Great Lakes and adjacent Southern Canada. Winds have been a bit gusty at times today due to the pressure gradient between the broad ridge and the former tropical low, but those winds will abate again tonight with the loss of deeper mixing.
606 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday) A weak upper low that has been sitting over northern Sonora the past several days will begin to phase in to the long wave trough over the Rockies tonight. This trough will become increasingly sharp and move east on Monday but will likely still be too far west to have a significant impact on the region. The large upper level trough over the Rockies will again induce weak surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico on Monday afternoon.
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday night) As high pressure sneaks into the area on the backside of a cut off low over the northeast, heights rise slightly which means slightly warmer temps tonight. By slightly, we really just mean in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to lower 60s in southern areas. High temps tomorrow will be in the mid 80s with lows Mon night a few degrees warmer than tonight.
Lingering vorticity advection will allow for light rain showers to continue east of Allegheny County and in the ridges, gradually moving out of the area. Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley through mid-week. VFR should return at MGW, and will continue through the TAF period elsewhere, under dry advection and building high pressure. VFR is expected until restriction potential returns with a Thu night/Fri cdfnt, and subsequent NW flow and upper troughing.
842 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 No changes were made to the forecast as high pressure will keep fair weather across the region through the remainder of the week. Cooler air is being funneled in as a result, which dries our airmass out. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 50s for SE AL and SW GA, generally the mid 50s for the inland FL, and the upper 50s to near 60 along the coast. High temperatures are to make it into the low to mid 80s tomorrow under mainly sunny skies and be accompanied with refreshing northeasterly winds.
608 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 During the short term forecast period, omega block ridging is expected to continue, as a cutoff low with remnant moisture from Ian remains stalled over the Mid-Atlantic.
750 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Aviation - Risk for frost tonight A large area of high pressure centered over southern Ontario will funnel a cooler and drier air mass into the CWA for the rest of the afternoon into tonight.
620 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will keep conditions warm and dry in the short term. But we do think tonight will be a little warmer than last night and that Monday night will be a little warmer than tonight.
Northern Arizona remains sandwiched between two areas of low pressure today. A modest amount of monsoon moisture remains in place and is interacting with the more northern trough to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms today. The best coverage this afternoon is along and north of I-40 where better support and wind shear from the trough exists.
705 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Drier conditions develop Monday through mid-week as the low moves further offshore and high pressure builds into the area with continued cooler than normal temperatures. A cold front will pass by the end of the week, with temperatures returning to below for the weekend. A closed upper level low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic States will very slowly move off the coast early this week.
High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through at least the first week of October.
1038 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Drier conditions develop Monday through mid-week as the low moves further offshore and high pressure builds into the area with continued cooler than normal temperatures. A cold front will pass by the end of the week, with temperatures returning to below for the weekend. A closed upper level low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic States will very slowly move off the coast early this week.
Breezy NE flow is carrying cooler air inbound from strong high pressure in northern Ontario this afternoon. Temperatures holding in the 50s near Lake Huron and struggling into the lower and mid 60s are 5 to 10 degrees below normal despite full sun over the central Great Lakes. This sets the stage for a cold night with advisory worthy frost and near freezing low temps likely inland from the shorelines and north of metro Detroit. Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then ensured by the nearly stationary center of high pressure extending from southern Quebec/Ontario into Lower MI for the early week period. Persistence of the pattern is driven by the parent 500 mb ridge that is part of a blocked mid level flow pattern from the eastern Pacific across North America.
The low levels remain very dry, which also explains the large diurnal curve between the morning lows and afternoon highs. The area is on back side of a strong high pressure ridge planted over the Eastern CONUS, so as the flow becomes more southeasterly tomorrow, a modest amount of moisture will start creep back into the area. This will be most evident with the morning lows getting progressively warmer by a degree or two each of the next several mornings.
918 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an upper level ridge axis centered over portions of the Eastern Plains and western sections of the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a trough axis extends from New England back through the Southeast United States and into portions of Mississippi.