Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front that is currently located along the Texas-Oklahoma border will move into the region this afternoon. West to northwesterly downslope winds in the low-levels combined with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will push afternoon highs into the 70s for most of south central Texas today. By early evening, winds will begin to shift to the north across the Hill Country as a cold front moves into central Texas. The front will continue to move southward this evening, with northerly winds and cooler air reaching the coastal plains shortly before midnight.
At best, think light amounts (less than an inch) or a dusting of snow accumulation across Central KS, given the high snow to liquid ratios expected (ie, fluffy snow). W-NW flow will slowly translate to the east, allowing ridging and southwest flow to return to the plains.
401 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front moves across the area later tonight and will bring much colder air in from the west.
There may be occasional light mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower elevation communities will remain primarily dry. The high clouds have tempered the heating associated with the increasing heights/thicknesses, resulting in below normal temperatures across the region. Latest consensus among the simulated satellite imagery indicates that the high clouds will finally dissipate somewhat Wednesday.
Arctic cold front beginning to move into the region. Broad upper tough will cover the eastern 2/3rds of the country while surface arctic high pressure will bleed into the area.
116 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front's passage makes the primary weather challenge now the extent of cold air, and with the next chance of pcpn, the extent of snowfall.
/issued 1052 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ Low clouds, fog and patchy drizzle prevail across the Mid-South in advance of an approaching cold front. Cold high pressure will begin to build into the region this evening, with winds picking up and becoming more northwesterly after sunset, as overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s. High pressure will keep conditions dry on Wednesday, when the sun could make a rare appearance for many locales as clouds clear.
Northwesterly surface flow will continue to advect ample cold air into much of the region today through the remainder of the week, with sub-freezing temperatures remaining firmly in place until the late weekend. An upper-level trough in this area will continue to deepen and eventually cross into the Great Lakes Region late tonight.
219 PM MST Tue Jan 3 2017 Break in the snow currently over the CWA with some snow confined over the higher mtns. while periods of snow continue over the higher mtns. Otherwise continued cold with the arctic high settling down the high plains.
Ahead of the high pressure a cold front located in east central KS will continue southeastward allowing the cold dry air to filter south. Model guidance is suggesting that the afternoon high temperatures will not warm much higher than the lows this morning especially in east central KS. high temperatures will only reach the lower 20s across the northern CWA with mid 20s across the remainder of the area. High and mid level clouds will increase through the afternoon hours as an upper level trough approaches the central plains.
106 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday. Cold air arrives Wednesday and remains into the weekend under high pressure. Rain lifting north with the upper level low bringing less coverage of showers in from the south. Low pressure tracks northeast along the Ohio Valley today and drags a cold front across the region late tonight. Cold front arrives this evening and we will see shower activity pick up again. A cold front should be along the Appalachians by 06Z Wednesday.
Westerly winds ahead of the cold front coming through the area this afternoon has lifted the dense fog across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This low will continue to track to the northeast today, moving into Ohio by mid day and well into the northeastern U. However, more showers will develop ahead of a strong cold front that will move through this afternoon and early evening.
1126 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 The cold front has moved through the forecast area ushering in plenty of cold air advection. The snow could very well be glazed over with all of the freezing drizzle on top of it lately.
1101 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Rain will accompany crossing low pressure today. Rain will continue through the afternoon as the low continues to track across the Upper Ohio Valley. Only minor adjustments made to temperatures and dewpoints through this evening based on the latest observations and hi res model guidance trends with warm advection keeping values in the mid to upper 40's for much of the region, save for the terrain where southeasterly upslope has kept values in the low-mid 30's. Showers, especially in upslope areas in lee of the lakes and over the ridges will continue into Wednesday, but with a phase change to snow with encroachment of the colder air.
Timing the edge of the low level stratus, which is currently over Kansas, most sites in the north will clear, becoming VFR, shortly before 04/00z with central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas clearing at or a few hours after 04/00z. /issued 355 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ First in a series of cold fronts passing through the region as advertised.
Temps will move little today as light southwest flow has developed in advance of the cold front which is still in IL/MO/nw AR. By Wednesday temps will be cooler with highs in the mid 40s.
351 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front moves across the area later tonight and will bring much colder air in from the west.
Trough will swing through tonight and shift winds to out of the northwest and we could see a bit more precipitation along the higher terrain because of this. If any precipitation is able to be squeezed out of the atmosphere it will most likely fall in the form of rain, but a few of the highest elevations could see a brief switch over to light snow overnight. Colder air will intrude behind the trough and knock back temperatures about 10 - 15 degrees tomorrow when compared with today.
Lack of widespread snow cover will keep temperatures a bit warmer than they otherwise would have been, however readings will still drop below zero across the north with single digits above zero elsewhere. At onset attention turns toward very weak waves moving in the fast flow from CA across the Rockies into the MO Valley, and a bit stronger Alberta/Saskatchewan wave dropping into the central and eastern CONUS mean trough. These will combine to spread mainly mid level kinematic forcing through the lower MO Valley and across southern Iowa Wednesday Night.
Mid level inverted trough will remain over the region tonight and Wednesday, slowly drifting westward. Low to mid level temperatures recover a good bit, and temperatures should be a good bit warmer than today. With a bit less cloud cover and rain in the area highs will hit around 101 degrees out west and in the low to mid 90s to the east.
127 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 The center of an area of high pressure is drifting over lower Michigan this afternoon. Upper wave crossing Ontario will push a cold front down into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Lower Michigan Wednesday.
Upper low moving into the SE Gulf this evening then Central Gulf tomorrow while Upper ridging build back over the region from the Western Atlantic. Deep layered ridging from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula will remain in control through the period.
The models are keeping the better convective chances closer to the low/trough and also near frontal boundary that sags a bit further south from nrn WI. So have the higher POPS in place there and in some cases went above Superblend in the far north. 925 temps remain in the low 20s even some mid 20s celsius from the NAM so more toasty temps well into the 80s expected. Evolving onshore flow will turn it cooler lakeside.
A dry boundary layer out west, and sfc boundary interactions across the Cheyenne Ridge and southern counties within a marginally unstable environment have produced a couple strong/severe storms. The main cold front looks to move slowly south through our counties later tonight, likely bringing stratus and perhaps light rain or drizzle to the plans by early tomorrow morning.
Given the high will be overhead with light winds, and because some patchy fog was reported this morning to our west under this high, I have opted to include the mention for such in the forecast later tonight. Temperatures inland could end up another degree or two warmer than todays readings, which would mean the potential for upper 80s highs. Closer to the lake, however, temperatures will remain in the low 80s.
Water Vapor Imagery and High Density Winds shows that the subtropical ridge is basically split in two. There is a weak inverted trof over East TX basically trapped between the two ridge centers.
Given the well above normal moisture and daytime heating, we expect another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.
Unsettled weather will continue through the forecast period as upper level troughiness remains over Eastern Kentucky.
A band of showers and storms across our Southwest counties will continue to rotate around the area of low pressure and affect the West through the afternoon. The area of weak low pressure is also associated with a broad area of lower heights at 500mb.
High pressure will maintain hot and dry conditions through much of the remainder of the week.
103 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Today: Strong and persistent deep layered ridging will continue across the forecast area. Tonight: Quiet weather will persist as mid level ridging and the surface synoptic pattern remain stagnant. Strong mid/upper level ridging directly over the area will continue into the second half of the workweek. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure dominates locally with troughing well inland.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Very distinct continuity boundary developing along the north side of a shear zone associated with a broad areas of mid level low pressure over Eastern and Southern Texas. Models indicate that the inverted mid level trough to weaken as it takes on slow westward drift while mean relative humidity between 925 and 700mb drops over the next 24 hours. Unfortunately, the drier mid level air wont allow for our surface humidity to lower any as surface winds from the south to southeast will keep the lower layers teaming with higher humidity levels. This will allow for heat indices to approach 110 degrees in the Lower Valley tomorrow afternoon for at least a few hours.
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure will build in from the west through tonight.
Redevelopment of showers and storms is anticipated for tomorrow morning, with the highest chances/coverage at and around the VCT terminal once again.
504 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure was overhead and will move off to the east on Wednesday.
Rain chances will be low but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms from daytime heating and upper-level and stalled out trough near OK/AR.
Overall pattern looks to remain mostly unchanged through the period with the prevailing westerlies remaining over the northern CONUS and elongated ridge over the southern CONUS. In the elongated ridge, a weakness will exist over the lower MS river valley in the form of a cyclonic shear axis. This moisture has been surging northward in the flow around these features and should lead to a relative ease of convective development due to sufficient convergence in the low level wind field, as has been the case already over the southeast.
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Nearly full sunshine has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 80s across the north, while areas to the south have had more clouds and thus cooler temps. Even though there is very little shear and this area is behind the cold front, there could be a showers and weaker storms. Most of the high res models are showing some activity now along and north of highway 2.
Few changes to the fcst the next few days as the broad trough aloft remains over the nwrn Gulf. The sfc/low lvl trough will slide slowly north through Wed, with ridging building west behind it allowing low lvl s/sw flow to resume.
This convection has developed in the vicinity of a low level front/convergence zone beneath a weak mid-level short wave trough. After low temperatures in the lower 70s tonight, highs on Wednesday will once again range from the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
In addition, as a ridge builds in the central plains, the boundary will get pushed east into the MO valley and across Iowa.
LLJ develops across Western NE this evening with the nose of the jet reaching S-Central SD ahead of a weak cold front.
250 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 High pressure slowly builds into the region today and Wednesday.
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Hydro Warm and sunny weather is expected for Southwest Michigan today thanks to a large high pressure system that will cross the area during the daytime hours. A Canadian cold front will move south through Lower Michigan Wednesday bringing the chance for thunderstorms.
The next couple of days will be unsettled as low pressure to our south will lock in the humidity with an easterly upslope flow into the higher terrain to our west. Upper disturbances and/or daytime convection off the higher terrain should help in generating showers/thunderstorms each day. Considerable model differences exist for next weeks trough.
Looking ahead, forecast challenges will revolve around the future of the current weakness in the subtropical ridge aloft, and its implications for precipitation potential in the coming days, as well as temperature trends. In association, the weakness in the ridge aloft remains, leaving the Houston area in a col area between ridging to the east and west. While a 594 dm ridge may manage to stretch across and bridge the weakness currently in place, there is consensus in another inverted trough working across the Gulf that will keep the ridge a little soft, though specifics on timing are more uncertain.
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Aviation Warm and sunny weather is expected for Southwest Michigan today thanks to a large high pressure system that will cross the area during the daytime hours. A Canadian cold front will move south through Lower Michigan Wednesday bringing the chance for thunderstorms.
248 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An upper level high over the Great Basin will produce a northwest flow aloft over Colorado. A cold front will drop south across eastern Colorado late tonight and Wednesday morning. Upper high remains centered over the southern great basin through the end of the work week.
(Slightly Modified Previous Discussion) The Bermuda Ridge at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather thru the weekend. The position of the low level ridge axis across FL peninsula will result in a light but steady S/SE flow, enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon.
Meanwhile a cold front stretched from western Upper Michigan through southeast North Dakota, drifting south.
High temperatures will again be slightly above normal on Wednesday, reaching the lower 90s in the Tennessee Valley, mid to upper 80s across the Cumberland Plateau, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. The closed low pressure system over the MS Delta region today will continue its northward drift, becoming positioned over West TN Wednesday night.
The dry airmass associated with the ridge will remain across Iowa for much of the night providing tranquil weather. However, southerly flow will increase on backside of the high toward the end of the period and the weak low level jet over the plains will veer toward northwest Iowa toward the end of the period.
Farther aloft, water vapor imagery indicated an organized short wave trough moving across the Dakotas with an associated cluster of thunderstorms. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach the KS/NE border region by late afternoon along with upper level support. The shear and instability appear to be marginal, and the low level jet is not well defined or particularly strong.
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Weather pattern remains the same into the weekend with surface trof just west of the coastal plain and the Bermuda high offshore.
21 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The center of the upper ridge will move eastward into this weekend, with increasing subsidence over the region.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this afternoon and through Wednesday morning as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure stretched across southern sections of the Great Lakes with mostly sunny skies and an uptick in relative humidity. A cold front extended roughly from Lake Superior southwest to SD. While eastern sections of the cold front were precipitation-free, thunderstorms were taking place over north-central MN and eastern SD. The cold front is forecast to drop south into northern WI this evening and approach central/east-central WI toward daybreak. This would place the highest pops across the north with lesser pops farther south. Min temperatures to be in the lower to middle 60s north, middle to upper 60s south.
Another very hot and humid day underway across Middle Tennessee with temperatures already in the mid 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
117 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Water vapor imagery and stream flow indicate an upper high off the southeast U. coast and a ridge extending across the TN valley. A trof axis was now working northward along the central and western Gulf Coast, dividing what was a more expansive ridge across the entire southern CONUS.
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A drier, less humid airmass will persist today as high pressure builds into the region.
Most convection is hugging the higher terrain though some showers and storms will drift into valleys as they day progresses. By Wednesday, high pressure will shift westward and get centered over the Great Basin.
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. An upper level ridge will remain over the southeastern overnight. Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the region. Warm air aloft combined with weak instability and subsidence beneath the upper ridge will hold dry weather across much of the area. High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft and at the surface on Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will limit convective development with only isolated diurnal convection expected, focused mainly along the lee-side trough and also along the sea breeze.
333 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure was overhead and will move off to the east on Wednesday.
Most convection is hugging the higher terrain though some showers and storms will drift into valleys as the day progresses. By Wednesday, high pressure will shift westward and get centered over the Great Basin.
The rap/nam both indicate a weak but sharpening 500 mb trough just upstream of our region late tonight. On Wednesday, the proximity of the weak upper trough and the lingering low-level boundary should result in fairly good coverage of storms.
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 An inland trough and Bermuda high pressure offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Mid/upper level ridge will cont over or just to south of the region. Over southern tier little if any precip expected closer to ridge axis. Little change in pattern with mid/upper level ridge continuing to be dominant feature. Weather pattern remains the same into the weekend with surface trof just west of the coastal plain and the Bermuda high offshore.
Midlevel temps have warmed slightly in the past 24 hours as the broad ridge has slid westward into the southern Great Basin.
654 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure was overhead and will move off to the east on Wednesday.
Expect convection to continue developing inland as we continue heating with temps just now starting to hit the convective temp after a cooler start this morning. Activity focused along weak trof and associated low level convergence.
Strong high pressure will continue to bring hot interior temperatures through mid-week with triple digit temperatures across portions of the interior. Temperatures along the Pacific Coast are running in the lower to mid 60s with the coolest readings in the areas with more recent cloud cover or better onshore flow. High pressure aloft will continue to gradually build over the desert SW over the next few days, with high temperatures at many interior locations exceeding 100 degrees. A sharpening upper trough this weekend may bring a few showers to the N interior.
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east today and Wednesday and bring dry and warm weather to the region.
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida over the next several days. This area of high pressure will also limit convection across the east coast metro areas of South Florida, allowing for hot afternoon temperatures to occur. This will allow the area of high pressure to push farther east of South Florida. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the rest of the week.
Currently, low pressure is situated over north central South Dakota with high pressure over Saskatchewan and nosing into northwest North Dakota.
248 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this afternoon and through Wednesday morning as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Weak high pressure builds into the area tonight.
Added TEMPO groups for TSRA at KCTB/KHVR due to the higher confidence at those sites.
333 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures through the week. The areas that receive increased cloud cover will see slightly cooler temperatures due to the decrease in solar insolation but otherwise the high pressure sitting over the southwest will continue to spin over the four corners region keeping temperatures above normal. Small impulses of moisture will move northward around the western periphery of the high. Winds will also be breezy and locally gusty through the passes and wind favored canyons at times over the next several evenings as gradient winds develop with high pressure to the east and weak troughing to the north and west.
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Our high pressure ridge has moved well west of the area, and in response, we had northerly winds for part of the day. Water vapor imagery showed the best fetch of Gulf moisture to be in these areas, but it was slowly moving westward as the high weakened. In addition, with the weakening of the high, monsoonal moisture was moving across NM and into parts of the TX Panhandle. Pretty straightforward forecast as upper high that had translated westward into the southwestern conus, thereby giving a northerly flow aloft to the region and slight rain chances, is forecast to build back eastward with a flatter ridge, weak west northwest flow aloft and increased subsidence likely.
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 High pressure is still dominating the area, with quiet and mild to seasonable temperatures. At 850mb, a dry air intrusion was noted from MN into the mid- to lower MO River valley, with moisture returning through KS toward the High Plains of NE/SD/ND.
Weak upper low just off the southwest Louisiana coast.
142 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Hot and dry conditions with light winds are expected under strong high pressure this week.