Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
520 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 An upper level ridge building into the region on Sunday will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks with mostly clear skies. By Monday, we will have a repeat of warmer temperatures, as if we are reliving the same day as Sunday (Groundhog Day) with highs in the middle to upper 60s.
331 AM MST Sun Feb 2 2020 Broad, low amplitude ridging is persisting across the northern Plains, but is becoming more zonal ahead of an upper trough pushing into the NW Pac coast. A cold front will cross the CWA this afternoon/evening, with forcing aloft increasing as the trough crosses the Great Basin.
Low pressure in that area as well with radars showing snow with this feature on the north/east side. Tue will feature dry and colder conditions as Arctic high pressure descends over the Northern Plains.
314 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 A broad thermal ridge will allow for temperatures to rise near record levels today and Monday.
457 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 WV imagery shows weak upper ridging over the wrn CONUS, w/a fetch of high clouds calving off a closed low off the Baja coast. This may hinder daytime temps a bit, but only a bit, as SW sfc flow should yield highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Later today, an upper trough will make landfall on the west coast, and dig down to UT by 00Z Tue.
635 AM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Mild, subtropical high pressure will expand from the Gulf Coast across the Southeast states through mid-week.
However, the 850mb warm front continues to outrace model expectation, so potential snow ends earlier than forecasted, Otherwise, no other changes at this time. Area of snow will spread across the region this morning ahead of a warm front. Latest guidance suggests winds should remain below advisory levels in the higher terrain.
258 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 We will end the afternoon on a warmer note thanks to southwesterly surface winds and upper ridging. The upper low currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest will amplify and dig southeastward tomorrow. Winds will be breezy tomorrow afternoon ahead of a southward moving cold front.
In addition, temperatures may feel a little cooler than they actually are as west winds increase to 10-15 mph later this morning.
Elsewhere, to our north there is a cold front dropping southward and was located along the IA/MN border and into central WI. Back to reality with colder temperatures arriving! Tonight: The cold front will continue to sag southward overnight turning winds north then northeast. Much cooler air will filter into the area behind the front as mid/high clouds increase. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. Monday: The cold front stalls across northern MO/central IL with a much cooler day in store.
232 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Not a bad day at all by late January standards as a large ridge of high pressure extends from the northern plains through the Tennessee Valley and into the local area. First, for tonight, approaching trough will provide for some increasing upper diffluence through the morning hours. Meanwhile, cool dome of high pressure at the surface tries its best to hang on, especially across the NE portions. Question continues to be whether there will be a juxtaposition of these 2 features to create a brief period of freezing rain Wed morning. At this time, I have it as no in the grids with temps remaining just above freezing and precip arriving just after daybreak for NE portions.
High pressure and upper level ridging keeps Central Alabama dry through Monday.
Satellite and observation trends indicate today will be much more tranquil than the last one to two days with clear skies and calmer winds, albeit much cooler. Temperatures will range from 20s in higher elevations to the low to mid-40s in the Basin, about normal for early February.
Appears we should have enough dry air in the low to mid levels to keep rain chances near 0% during the daytime hours. Pattern will really slow down during the middle of the week, with a deep trof over the Four Corners and lower-amplitude ridging over the Southeast guiding plenty of moisture northward into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will slowly make its way south and east across the region, with plenty of residence time to focus at least persistent moderate precipitation.
Current temps are running anywhere from 10-20 degrees warmer than this time yesterday which adds support to this idea. /Issued 314 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020/ A broad thermal ridge will allow for temperatures to rise near record levels today and Monday.
Brisk and cooler this afternoon as cold air advection continues. Cold front continues to work its way through the Dakotas. Breezy to windy conditions continue over our area, with the highest wind speeds over northern portions of North Dakota. Temperatures will be notably cooler in the wake of the cold front, with some northern areas realizing their daytime highs early as cold air slides in.
Large scale upper ridging will move east to start the new week, with seasonable temperatures making a return. An area of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies and lift northeast through the middle Mississippi River Valley and then into the Ohio River Valley. The NAM and a few GEFs members paint some light precipitation chances across far southern parts of the forecast area (extreme northeast IA into southwest WI), whereas the ECMWF and now the latest run of the GFS keep the low/better precip chances south of the area. One thing of note is that saturation does not appear to be deep enough for in-cloud ice to be present, so if precipitation does occur, it will likely be a drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario (maybe some flurries at times). However, if freezing drizzle occurs, a few slick spots could develop.
With broad high pressure currently in place across the northern Gulf, dry conditions will prevail. All locations are above the freezing mark, but range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. We will see mild and above normal temperatures for today as a ridge of high pressure builds in overhead. Moisture return will take place rather quickly on Monday as southwest flow strengthens over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
After lows in the low to mid 40s overnight, temperatures will once again rebound quickly with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 60s to near 70.
331 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Aviation section updated High pressure is expected across the area through Monday. High pressure will build back into the area by the later parts of the week. Surface observations have indicated wind gusts peaking out in the low to mid 30 kt range over the past couple of hours. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions through Monday, as an upper ridge drifts through the local area. Upper ridging will slowly drift off to the east, while a rather deep upper trough moves into the southern High Plains by the end of the period.
1115 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 We start out the day quite mild, but this will soon come to an end as a cold front makes its way south this afternoon and evening. This cold front will likely arrive early enough to shunt maximum heating potential, but south/southwest areas should be able to achieve maximum potential. Sounding profiles indicate the potential for freezing drizzle late tonight into mainly Monday morning, and possibly a little bit into the afternoon. Ongoing isentropic lift will give us a good chance of freezing drizzle for a good chunk of our CWA. Our far south may be just warm enough to have primarily drizzle rather than freezing drizzle.
With clear skies, and high pressure building in, it seems highly likely that we will decouple and winds will die off significant, if not go completely calm in some places in the northern valley as well as far western NC. As such, trended the overnight lows towards the MAV and MET guidance, which shows lows in the low to mid 30s for portions of the northern valley and southwest Virginia, as well our western NC counties.
High pressure is expected across the area through Monday. High pressure will build back into the area by the later parts of the week. Surface observations have indicated wind gusts peaking out in the low to mid 30 kt range over the past couple of hours. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions through Monday, as an upper ridge drifts through the local area. Upper ridging will slowly drift off to the east, while a rather deep upper trough moves into the southern High Plains by the end of the period.
156 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Mild, subtropical high pressure will expand from the Gulf Coast across the Southeast states through mid-week.
The heavier accumulations will focus across southern Malheur county and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho, mostly south of the Snake Plain.
The HRRR today has much cooler highs in the area where the soil is still well saturated from recently melted snowpack.
1147 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 An upper level ridge building into the region on Sunday will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks with mostly clear skies. By Monday, we will have a repeat of warmer temperatures, as if we are reliving the same day as Sunday (Groundhog Day) with highs in the middle to upper 60s.
1019 AM MST Sun Feb 2 2020 Broad, low amplitude ridging is persisting across the northern Plains, but is becoming more zonal ahead of an upper trough pushing into the NW Pac coast. A cold front will cross the CWA this afternoon/evening, with forcing aloft increasing as the trough crosses the Great Basin.
Otherwise, sunny skies and upper 60s/low 70s have made for a great Sunday! Dry conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains overhead. Moisture return will increase Monday afternoon in response to increasing southwest flow aloft associated with a developing upper trough across the southwest US and departing upper ridging to the east.
Meanwhile, the shallow/warm nature of the cloud layer will lend itself almost entirely to drizzle/freezing drizzle as the precipitation type, which is well supported by forecast soundings, so although amounts are very light, we may see spotty travel impacts mainly after dark Monday night. Given the low confidence in accumulation along with temperatures hovering near freezing and relatively warm road surfaces, especially during the daytime hours, no hazard has been considered at this time.
1109 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Updated for warmer highs across the central and southwest areas today. and a Pacific cold front will drop into Nebraska. The forecast Monday uses the short term model blend which places light snow across northwest Nebraska and a chance of freezing drizzle across north central Nebraska and the Sandhills.
Surface winds should stay up a bit tonight as low pressure over the plains interacts with the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
Lows will be much cooler in the single digits to the lower teens. The upper pattern will start with a trough over the middle of the country, gradually proceeding east with a northwest flow regime setting up in its wake, with a series of weak systems for the latter half of the work week. None of these presents much opportunity or confidence for moisture, but cant rule out some light snow showers as the trough over the eastern CONUS deepens. Over the weekend, a weak upper trough digging into the western CONUS induces ridging across the region, so NBM trends towards dry conditions. In the low levels, the pattern we will start with a 1030mb-or so high pressure that gradually moves south and we are back into low level westerly flow and relatively amoebic pattern.
Dry conditions with warmer temps continues through Monday. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 40s inland to around 50 near the coast. As high pressure moves east of the area, a southerly flow will develop on Monday. Highs on Monday will also be well above normal, in the low 70s. Clouds will increase Monday afternoon through Monday night as a trough digs across the western states and a southwest upper flow develops over the area. Advection fog may become an issue Monday night as a warm and moist airmass is transported north across the cooler nearshore waters.
1153 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Enjoy the very mild temperatures today, for changes are starting with the passage of a cold front across the area early this afternoon. The impressive upper-level ridge over the central and western CONUS will keep temperatures much above normal today. This evening into the overnight hours, the large scale pattern will begin to change as a well-defined trough pushes onto the West Coast. Cooler air will begin to filter into the central Plains from Canada.
Have increased the winds in the high terrain, but am still uncertain of just how strong they will be. Typically post-frontal, or post trough, flow regimes do not produce very high winds in the higher terrain. Tyson McGhee was already gusting to 15-17mph at 14Z this morning, so suspect some gusts to 20-25 mph will be possible in the low elevations as well. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 67 53 63 57 / 0 10 50 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 67 52 61 56 / 0 10 50 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 41 65 52 61 55 / 0 10 60 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 65 50 59 53 / 0 0 40 80 90.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid 20s to mid 40s ahead of an approaching cold front northwest to southeast.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show an area of low pressure over eastern Lake Superior and a cold front extending west from the low across central Minnesota. As the cold front gradually drops south, forecast concerns may revolve around cloud cover and temps. The cold front will move across most of northern WI in the evening and settle south of the area overnight. Not expecting much further progress south of the low clouds. Temps will be much cooler than today, although with less wind, with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
With high pressure building over the region, clear skies and calm winds prevail and will allow for radiational cooling overnight. Lows overnight will dip into the low 40s to upper 30s with locally cooler places possible. Highs tomorrow will rise above normal into the low to mid 70s.
237 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Even with the passage of the weak cold front today, temperatures have remained mild. As of mid afternoon, most sites still remained in the low to mid 30s. Looking ahead into tonight, more clearing is expected along and north of the highway 2 corridor, with more clouds to the south of it. Therefore, cooler lows tonight will be along the Canadian border, with warmer lows along the North and South Dakota border. Wind speeds and the cooler air moving in tonight should keep the fog at bay.
Today's high temperatures may not get much warmer than they are now.
Expect cloud cover to increase as well as a low pressure system moves into central Illinois. This system will bring an increase in moisture along with a warm front over southern Wisconsin.
1136 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Updated for warmer highs across the central and southwest areas today. and a Pacific cold front will drop into Nebraska. The forecast Monday uses the short term model blend which places light snow across northwest Nebraska and a chance of freezing drizzle across north central Nebraska and the Sandhills.
A cold front will move across northern Arizona tonight and Monday delivering even stronger winds with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph possible.
/issued 707 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020/ Latest RAP model has mid level ridging sliding east across the Gulf region while high pressure shifts from the western to central Gulf waters today. High pressure approaching from the western Gulf will maintain robust northwest winds.
A surface cold front will continue to trek south thru Neb today, nearing the Neb/KS stateline this evening and crossing into northern Kansas tonight/Monday morning. A closed upper low pressure system will remain to our west, digging towards the central Rockies while the sfc cold frontal boundary will be oriented just to our south in northern KS. Isentropic lift over the baroclinic zone is expected to generate at least some light wintry precip, favoring freezing drizzle (where sfc temps are below freezing) per model forecast soundings due to lacking/limited dendritic moisture. The forecast continues to reflect small chances for wintry precip (mainly freezing drizzle) with light icing or a glaze possible Monday morning. North central Kansas is not in the advisory attm due to warmer sfc temps.
1052 AM MST Sun Feb 2 2020 Temperatures have already climbed into the 60s this morning on their way to at least the lower 70s. The low level winds will be south to southwesterly today into this evening. A cold front, with shallow upslope flow behind it will move across the plains late this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle develop in some areas of the plains just before dawn Monday. Moisture associated with the upper trough begins pushing into the western CWA after midnight.
333 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 After a pleasant day for early February standards, marked by near record highs, cooler air is beginning to work in slowly. Readings this afternoon remain in the upper 30s across western MN to the low to mid 40s across eastern MN and western WI but they will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s late tonight and likely fail to reach 30 on Monday. As the mid level ridge continues to build, the mid-high level stratus to the south will lift north making for mostly cloudy skies tonight and Monday.
Initial trough will drop into southern Utah during the day Monday. As this occurs, surface cold front will drop south into northwest Oklahoma by midday and is expected to be near I-40 across western parts of Oklahoma by the end of the day.
227 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2020 Area of colder high pressure now moving into Montana from the north will continue to slowly push the scattered snow showers further south through the state tonight and through the overnight hours.
Even with the passage of the weak cold front today, temperatures have remained mild. As of mid afternoon, most sites still remained in the low to mid 30s. Looking ahead into tonight, more clearing is expected along and north of the highway 2 corridor, with more clouds to the south of it. Therefore, cooler lows tonight will be along the Canadian border, with warmer lows along the North and South Dakota border. Wind speeds and the cooler air moving in tonight should keep the fog at bay.
Not much change to the ongoing forecast with clear skies and high pressure forecast overnight. With clear skies, and high pressure building in, it seems highly likely that we will decouple and winds will die off significant, if not go completely calm in some places in the northern valley as well as far western NC. As such, trended the overnight lows towards the MAV and MET guidance, which shows lows in the low to mid 30s for portions of the northern valley and southwest Virginia, as well our western NC counties.
Isentropic upglide increases overnight behind the strong cold front across northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska, and sounding indicated saturated enough below 750MB at around -5C, that light freezing drizzle is possible near and south of I80 from 10Z through 15Z. Northeast winds overnight will increase to 20 to 30 mph after midnight with lows reaching the low to mid 20s by daybreak. Meanwhile an upper trough will drop across the Rockies and bring increasing snow chances to the northwest Sandhills. For Monday night, the upper level trough will be positively tilted and move slowly southeast. With lows in the low to mid teens, lowest wind chills around zero are forecast.
With warm air advection continuing at the low-levels, temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower 50s tonight. Showers to increase in coverage on Monday afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible overnight as moisture ascent increases ahead of an approaching low-level trough. Temperatures on Monday night forecast to fall into the lower 60s.
The winter storm that we've been tracking for the past week now has finally arrived and widespread snowfall and much cooler temperatures are in store over the next 24-36 hours. It should begin snowing in the Upper Snake Plain in the next few hours and by mid/late evening across the lower Snake Plain and southeast/southern Highlands. Behind this initial band of snowfall, temperatures will drop quickly 10-15 degrees which may cause flash freeze on untreated roadways especially from around Idaho Falls south where road temperatures are a bit warmer.
Lingering snow cover across northern Missouri will keep temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than areas further to the south who have managed to melt most of their snow over the last week. The broad upper ridge will shift eastwards through the middle half of the week as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies.
549 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Cold front pushed south of the area early this afternoon, and now starting to lose the struggle to hold the mild temperatures, especially with the band of thick cirrus centered near I-90 cutting down on an otherwise weak sun angle.
Usual afternoon highs range from the upper 50s to around 60; with high on Monday again in the 70s, that's much warmer than usual. Thus, expect overnight lows to again be warmer than usual.
552 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 The cold front currently draped along the Iowa-Minnesota border will continue to slowly slide southward into the northern CWA through the overnight hours. Expect stratus to overspread the bi-state area from the south and along the stalled cold front. A mid level disturbance will move northeast out of the southern plains along the cold front Monday afternoon and is likely to force some light precipitation Monday afternoon and evening. High temperatures on Monday to the north of the front in northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois will be slightly cooler than today, peaking in the upper 40s to mid 50s. To the south of the stalled cold front temperatures will warm up once again into the low to mid 60s, though not as much as Sunday due to the increased cloud cover.
This will mean a longer spring and a shorter summer? Well skies cleared this morning after the morning fog and temperatures managed to climb into the low to mid 70s on southerly winds. Clouds spreading in during the morning hours with scattered showers moving into southeast Texas around the noon hour then slowly spreading into Louisiana as a cold front currently in the upper plain states drops south.
926 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 The Aviation section has been updated High pressure is expected across the area through Monday. High pressure will build back into the area by the later parts of the week. Surface observations have indicated wind gusts peaking out in the low to mid 30 kt range over the past couple of hours. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions through Monday, as an upper ridge drifts through the local area. Upper ridging will slowly drift off to the east, while a rather deep upper trough moves into the southern High Plains by the end of the period.
Westerly winds around 10-15 kt nearshore and around 15 kt offshore will veer northwesterly and diminish to around 10 knot by sunrise as high pressure becomes centered over southern FL.
543 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 After a pleasant day for early February standards, marked by near record highs, cooler air is beginning to work in slowly. Readings this afternoon remain in the upper 30s across western MN to the low to mid 40s across eastern MN and western WI but they will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s late tonight and likely fail to reach 30 on Monday. As the mid level ridge continues to build, the mid-high level stratus to the south will lift north making for mostly cloudy skies tonight and Monday.