Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A DRY UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
326 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT WAS STRUNG OUT FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST U. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EASE EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH AND SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY A 2 AM AND SUNRISE WINDOW. HOWEVER WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AND INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXITS THE STATE SUN.
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SCTD MIDLVL CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
334 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 Temperatures overnight have fallen to near or just below freezing, with a few low spots hitting the 20s. Lee trof and southerly surface winds strengthen overnight, keeping overnight lows tonight up around 40. These winds should diminish some during the mid to late afternoon hours as the cold front approaches. Model soundings continue to show deep mixing likely occurring ahead of the advancing cold front, resulting in dry conditions and minimum relative humidity values plunging into the upper teen to mid 20 percent range.
Windy Saturday, Freezing Temperatures Saturday Night. For tonight a cold front will pass by mainly to the north of the region while another disturbance passes to the southeast. For Saturday a strong low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes region with a cold front moving through the lower Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening. Behind the cold front temperatures will fall quickly Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the south bringing mostly calm winds.
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR.
417 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 Quiet weather conditions continue into the start of this weekend as vort max associated with the previously discussed upper-level trough axis pushes off eastward and dry PWATs keeps the forecast area precip free.
355 AM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WL BE OVER NV TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND WL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. WARMER DAY TODAY WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPISH AND MORE SUNSHINE HELPING PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS. NEW RIDGE AXIS FORMING UPSTREAM TURNS FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT VERY MILD WITH A SMALL SCALE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
230 AM PDT SAT APR 2 2016 High pressure will provide dry conditions and above average temperatures this weekend.
1240 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN IA NEAR THE WEAK TROF AXIS. WE STAY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WELL-ADVERTISED TROUGH IS SLATED TO COME BARRELING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN A SUPER-ENSEMBLE USING 13 OTHER DATA SETS. THIS SHOULD AID IN VERTICAL MIXING AND THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO PICK THAT UP KEEPING LOWS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEASONAL TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER NOTICEABLE FLUCTUATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST. THERMAL ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH H85 T/S UPWARDS INTO THE LOW TEENS C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
OTHERWISE A WARMER DAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY THANKS PARTLY TO CLEAR SKIES.
305 AM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 A WELCOME PERIOD OF QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BROAD/FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
Most models have the cold front sweeping clear of the area quite early in the morning, with chances of rain quickly diminishing. In the wake of the front, slightly cooler and drier conditions are expected with highs in the low-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s.
THE FIRST AND DEEPER OF THE LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. WITH DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COTEAU FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST REGION.
THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THE SPRINKLES ARE HELPING TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN FROM ALOFT AND WINDS ARE FAIRLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. EVEN WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAT GETS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THAT AREA SHOULD HAVE THE LIGHTEST WINDS. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IN THE INTERIOR CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. ISSUE IS THAT WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST (SW ZONES). SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPRINKLE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND REACHES SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. OCCASIONALLY OCCLUDED BY THIN STREAKS OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE'S INVERSION NEAR 750MB.
THE NORTH END OF AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE US/MEX BORDER WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH COOLER. RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA.
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILLL KEEP CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AND ALSO KEEPING TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL. ALOFT THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP PUSH CLOUDS TO EAST.
Light and variable winds early will become NW 10 to 15 KT, as a cold front moves west to east across the region this morning. As of 06Z the cold front was progressing through the western part of the area and had just moved through Dothan.
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF QUICK POP AND DROP TYPE SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS TO FOLKS HIKING/PLAYING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SUNDAY BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN UINTAS.
654 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A VERY WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AND HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL ADDRESS THE PRECIP CHANCES IN A BIT. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
STRONG FGEN FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND AID IN PRODUCING MODERATE TO PERHAPS A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. AS THE LOW PASSES. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRYING OCCURRING BOTH IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY EVENING.
344 AM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 Temperatures will once again be well above normal today as the Northern Rockies are influenced by high pressure.
THE FRONT HAS FINALLY EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL BACK NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING SKIES THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THRU THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL HELP USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING IN THE UPPER 20S THRU THE LOW 30S W/ A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE WEEKEND.
A ridge of high pressure aloft is edging into the area from the northwest.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE TO BRING SHOWERS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW THAT IS THE CAUSE OF THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN PASSES THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND THUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON MON. WILD FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY AS TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING AND LOWERING AROUND THE FREEZING POINT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
A VERY WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AND HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL ADDRESS THE PRECIP CHANCES IN A BIT. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
331 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 The two main concerns in this forecast are strong winds this afternoon and freezing temps tonight. Both events are likely to be focused mainly north and east of a kmdh to khop line, courtesy of a deepening low pressure system that will move east across the Great Lakes region. The next item on the docket is near-freezing temps late tonight. On Sunday, winds will become southerly on the back side of retreating high pressure. Highs should be mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
642 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SUNDAY.
WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY. WITH A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. COULSTON UPDATED 0528Z UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP.
A 500 MB ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS OVER TX WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE TX COASTLINE ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND START COMING AROUND FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON THE RADAR CORRESOND WELL WITH THE BEST FGEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PASCO NORTH THROUGH A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
Winds will become rather gusty by afternoon, as a dry cold front passes through the area. This will especially be the case over south central Missouri, where the highest winds and lowest RH will be co-located. Much warmer conditions are then expected Sunday, with highs warming into the 70s as winds become southerly at the surface.
412 AM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS MOVED OVER THE STATE.
1217 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 835 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ A GENERALLY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE EXISTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY THE BMX AND OHX 00Z SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST WITH NW WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5-10 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TO MID 40S AS WELL. 77 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NW TO WNW WINDS INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
642 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY.
1017 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015 STRONG UPPER TROF IS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ND TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
Winds will continue to veer to the northwest and increase through the morning as a cold front moves through the area, with speeds from 12-20kt and some gusts possible through Sunday afternoon. Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front turning winds to the nw-n this PM. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
745 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 AVIATION A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE LIKELY FROM DODGE CITY NORTH AND WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
NOT MUCH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SO FAR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT POISED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS SEWD AND PROVIDE SLIGHT COOLING IN IDAHO ZONES TODAY.
1114 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 HYDRO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA.
KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 14-20Z.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVED THROUGH US YESTERDAY WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO TODAY. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WE GET PLACED UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW. BUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL EDGE INLAND AND KEEP US MOSTLY DRY. WE DO HAVE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SO THOUGH I EXPECT WARMER SEASONAL HIGHS FOR MONDAY.
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL GET A SOLID PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL ARRIVE ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE 500MB VORT MAX AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS TO THE EAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Precipitation to then end west to east tonight as upper low lifts northeast.
More scattered activity is expected this afternoon as the upper level low over western KS opens up and shifts eastward to near the KS MO border by 00Z Monday. The models depict upper level divergence over our forecast area ahead of the upper level trough. Some of the high resolution explicit models depict a narrow line of convection shifting eastward through our forecast area this afternoon. With more cloud cover and precipitation today the highs will not be quite as warm as yesterday, but will still be slightly above normal.
LOOKING AT A LOOP OF THE RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS WITH ONE OF THE LOBES OF VORTICITY THAT WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THEM INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 18Z OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALL INSTABILITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL TODAY.
Winds will be northerly and elevated with some gusts this afternoon behind the cold front. Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front turning winds to the nw-n this PM. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY, SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND.
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 62 74 49 / 100 50 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 61 74 48 / 100 60 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 61 72 47 / 100 60 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 55 74 46 / 100 60 70 40.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/ A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONTANA WILL REMAIN BENEATH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN RANGES, INCLUDING BRIDGERS NEAR KBZN, BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR PRECIP AT TAFS SITES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGHER RES MODELS AND RUC DEPICT SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WHICH BEAR SOME WEIGHT GIVEN THE SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE DELLS AT THIS HOUR. CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER READINGS OVER EASTERN WI THOUGH. SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THIS LINE IN THE MESOMODELS THOUGH. COMMA HEAD PRECIP FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.