Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There will be a ridge in the western U. with a low over southern CA and a broad trough in the ern U. Ridging builds into the Rockies this forecast period and troughing digs into the eastern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough off the west coast and a ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the ern U. The west coast trough moves into the Great Basin 12z Fri and into the western high plains 12z Sat. This trough then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun with more troughing moving into the southern Rockies. High pressure exits east this morning as a clipper system approaches from the west.
359 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A cold front will drop south of the region early today, resulting in a chilly start for the work week.
Northwest flow, on the front side of an upper ridge, remains in place with high pressure at the surface. Kentucky sits in a saddle of high pressure centers over Lake Ontario and southern Texas. All this will keep surface winds out of the southwest today, so with warm air advection and clear skies, temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s which is on the warmer side of guidance.
1014 PM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Colder air is moving in on gusty northwest winds behind a cold front.
102 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A crossing cold front will ensure seasonable temperature for Monday. No appreciable change was needed for the eve update as a cold front extending from ern Canadian low pres is spawning some stratocu, which will develop southward although frontal penetration is, and will further weaken as per ewd progressing low pres. High pressure should result in a clearing trend late tonight and Monday as it tracks E across the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. Increasing clouds are expected across the area in warm advection ahead of the approaching trough.
A chilly start this morning across the area as many begin the day near or below freezing as result of radiational cooling with the light winds and clear skies. Additionally, there will be some high clouds returning to the region, with our area positioned on the northern side of an upper level ridge centered across Mexico into South Texas.
Westerly flow aloft is now bringing warmer and moister Pacific air to our area but the atmospheric river is aimed across WA.
352 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Warmer air mass settles in to start the work week with high pressure keeping conditions dry.
Patchy freezing fog is possible overnight for eastern and south-central AR. Tonight, temperatures will drop to the lower to upper 20s across the forecast area. There is potential for patchy freezing fog to develop overnight tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, mainly across southern/eastern AR and the AR river valley region. Tuesday morning temps will be in the lower to mid 30s.
Relatively high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley today, keeping skies mostly clear, The occasional upper level cirrus is likely today given the placement of the upper level jet this afternoon and evening. Lows overnight will continue to increase as warmer air encompasses the region. This should continue the ridging over the Rockies, but it will also aid in near surface cyclogenesis, of which will come to fruition early this week. This will push a much warmer airmass over the Ohio Valley. High pressure to the south will limit any kind of moisture return within the WAA, but expect warmer than normal conditions, over the next two days.
While clear skies and dry air will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s tonight, winds should stay up just enough so as not to maximize radiational cooling. As an upper level trough sweeps across the forecast area this afternoon, a deeper northwest is developing, which is bringing in drier air and subsidence to help scatter and thin out the low clouds. This will allow for chilly temperatures overnight, with some of the usual colder locations for interior southeast Texas and central Louisiana seeing reading below freezing.
1245 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A cold frontal moves offshore overnight followed by high pressure building on Monday.
1024 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Upper level ridging continues to provide light winds, mainly clear skies, and warm temperatures to the region. No changes in the forecast for the middle of the week as upper level ridging will continue to provide well above average temperatures to the Northern Plains.
A return to chilly nights commences Monday night with many areas in the lower to middle 40s. Highs will be in the lower 70s with lows once again in the 40s.
Northwest flow aloft will build over the region today as a broad upper-level ridge settles over the western United States setting the stage for a warm and dry work week. With a dry and breezy forecast in store today, some pockets of elevated fire conditions are possible, especially west of Highway 65 where the highest wind gusts are likely. Temperatures look to fall into the low to mid 30s tonight as those high clouds move out of the region.
235 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Discussion/Marine - Only light snow chances this week with fast moving clippers The large scale pattern the next few days features fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada.
Today, highly positively tilted upper trough slides from the Rockies over the Panhandles, leading to a wind shift to out of the northeast in the northwestern CWA.
Dry with near normal temperatures Discussion: We will remain under the broad low amplitude Eastern US trough for the short term period.
1115 PM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 A cold frontal moves offshore overnight followed by high pressure building on Monday.
Cloudiness will keep temperatures a bit in check early, but it will be warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s and low 60s. Lusk High pressure at the surface will be in place at the beginning of the forecast period. The ridge will remain in place through the end of the week, before getting shoved southward by a back door front approaching from the north.
Tonight's lows will be several degrees warmer than the past few nights with readings mostly staying above freezing in the mid/upper 30s.
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period, with light northerly winds tonight, gradually turning northeast and then eastward by tomorrow afternoon and evening (remaining light). High pressure will move into the area this evening, providing mostly clear skies tonight through tomorrow, with generally light north to northeast winds by tomorrow afternoon. /issued 203 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The mid level trough axis will gradually work off the lower Texas coast into Monday morning, with high pressure building and dry air aloft arriving through Monday night. Due to clear skies and lighter winds, expect very efficient radiational cooling across the northern ranchlands, with low temperatures tonight potentially reaching freezing. Highs on Monday range from the low to mid 60s along the coast and upper 60s to low 70s across the western counties.
1234 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A weak area of low pressure will track east and off the Carolina coast tonight. Dry high pressure builds in Monday and likely dominates our weather through the end of the week. Dry high pressure centered near the eastern Great Lakes will keep skies mostly clear thru Monday, and maintain a light northeasterly wind in most areas.
1012 PM MST Sun Feb 27 2022 An upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with a trough over the east, and northwesterly flow over the northern plains. Over the Black Hills, relative humidity has dipped into the lower teens, but winds in that area are relatively light. Stationary boundary will continue keeping the coldest air to the northeast, and WAA will resume as the western upper ridge rebuilds.
330 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Dry weather, mainly with high pressure, is expected today through Tuesday.
1235 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A cold front will wash out over the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
Upper pattern was beginning to change with ridging building over the Rockies per recent water vapor imagery. The spine of the low level ridge was located from north Texas to along the Ohio River with modest westerly winds to its north. Guidance remains very similar to recent days with WAA regime today into Tuesday bringing steadily warmer temperatures to the area as upper ridging stays anchored to the west, keeping fire weather as the primary concern over the next several days (see below for more details).
957 PM PST Sun Feb 27 2022 More precipitation arrives tonight into Monday, with heavy mountain snow, and a mix of rain and snow in the lowlands.
A decent ridge/valley temperature split exists across the area at this hour with many lowland valley locations down into the mid 20s while ridges remain in the mid to upper 30s. Should see ridges start to catch up over the next few hours as flow progressively weakens with morning lows generally in the lower to mid 20s. Another quiet day is expected as a weak and moisture starved cold front approaches our northern counties early this morning, stalls during the late morning, and retreats back to the north as a warm front this afternoon.
Wave clouds east of the Cascades indicates strong winds over the ridges. Elsewhere, the north coast and the higher ridges have gotten around 0. An long wave trough remains offshore with southwest flow aloft over the area. Weak short waves ejecting from the trough will continue to move through the area. So only the highest peaks will see snow.
Water vapor imagery shows a ridge over our forecast area with very dry air associated with it. This trough will move eastward across our forecast area tomorrow morning bringing high level clouds and a slight increase in winds. The low to mid levels will be much too dry for any precipitation to form as a result of this trough passage. There is weak cold air advection that pushes across our forecast area during the day tomorrow due to the trough. As a result, high temperatures will be similar to today as the competing factors of a warmer start to the day and slight cold air advection cancel each other out. There are no weather hazards expected as winds will not be very strong which keeps fire weather conditions on the lower side.
120 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight. High pressure will follow the front for the first of the week. By morning winds will shift to a light northerly wind which will help temperatures drop into the low 30s in the north and mid 30s in the south. Central NC will see wall-wall sunshine with slightly below normal afternoon highs topping out in the lower/mid 50s north to upper 50s south. Models show a healthy slug of high-level moisture overspreading the area Monday night in advance of a clipper-style northern stream trough moving into the Ohio Valley, which will likely temper radiational cooling during the second half of the night. Lows generally in the lower 30s.
Starting off clear and dry tonight, then a weak cold front will works its way across Florida through Monday. Afternoon highs will be limited to the 70s up north due to cloud cover, but further south where more sunshine is expected highs will be in the lower 80s. A weak cold front will move through Florida late tonight into Monday. A weak cold front will pass through the local Atlantic waters late tonight through Monday.
Reimer Less amplified pattern over the area for the next 24 hours as ridging is beaten down by a Pacific train of energy moving across southern Canada/northern Montana. This flow pattern continues to bring a mixing downslope across the region but elongates the leeside trough so pressure gradients are not focused over the gap flow areas. Tuesday looking like the warmer day with some 50s possible with ridging rebounding over the area. Models also hint at some light precipitation north of the Yellowstone valley especially Tuesday night as amplification in the ridge upstream allows Northwest flow aloft over eastern Montana to try and push a bit of cooler air back into the area but downslope limits most of the precip potential.
1047 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Expect a continued VFR condition through this forecast period with high pressure now building overhead.
The drizzle will cool and saturate the lower levels, therefore some fog and lowering of clouds is anticipated. A few areas of light rain continue across eastern portions of the forecast area with the upper-level trough axis advancing southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. CAA and clearing skies will result in overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast. A ridge will build over the Lower MS Valley tomorrow, and this will provide stability and height rises with clear skies across most of the area.
230 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Clear skies prevailed over the greater Tennessee Valley as high pressure settles over the region. The low cloud/fog and microphysics satellite view indicated this fog over parts of NE Alabama, mainly in the Paint Rock, Tennessee River, and DeKalb Valley regions. Given that we have about another 4 hours or so before the sun rises, more fog or freezing fog cannot be ruled out across the area. High pressure over the Southern Plains will build to the east and control the general weather.
Upper level pacific moisture will work its way into the area, riding the weak upper level ridging overhead. This upper level cloud cover should help keep radiational cooling at bay and, for the first time in a while, prevent overnight lows from dropping below freezing. A few drainage spots and river valleys may dip close to freezing but much of the area should stay in the mid and upper 30s to low 40s.
1049 PM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Broad low pressure will pass over the region tonight, followed by building high pressure early this week. High pressure should remain the dominate feature across the South Carolina Lowcountry and southeast Georgia during the work week.
A short wave trough moves across the area early Monday with the upper ridge extending eastward from the Intermountain region across the central Rockies over the central High Plains region through Tuesday night.
326 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a slightly drier airmass pushing southeast into the Florida Peninsula associated with a slow moving cold front. Ridging aloft will also build into the Florida Peninsula by the weekend, with temperatures climbing back up to near record levels. A weak cold front will slowly push southeast through the waters today, with a few showers possible, mainly from around the Tampa Bay north. North winds behind the front will increase to around 15 knots today, then will gradually shift to northeasterly through the week as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
1032 PM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 Colder air is moving in on gusty northwest winds behind a cold front.
There still remains some discrepancies between guidance when it comes to visibility, however; given high pressure at the sfc with clearing skies, recent rainfall saturating the surface, and the aforementioned light winds, the possibility of fog cannot be ruled out.
355 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain and snow chances return with a mid week front. Dry conditions and seasonable temperature is expected today as high pressure crosses north of the region.
224 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Upper level ridging will continue to move inland today over the western CONUS leading to an increase in thickness values overhead. A weak short wave underneath the ridge will bring stronger winds aloft as well as a fetch of upper level Pacific moisture but is not expected to dampen temperatures much. This short wave will lead to weak surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis this afternoon in New Mexico bringing downsloping west to southwest winds. Broad upper level ridging over the southwestern CONUS will gradually expand eastward beginning on Tuesday.
That will be associated with a weak cold front moving through.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 35 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 34 61 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 33 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 32 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 0.
VFR conditions will dominate through much of the period although cannot rule out some patchy BR/FZFG through daybreak as temperatures drop below freezing after midnight. In addition, dew point depressions are only a few degrees in some cases so cannot rule out areas of patchy freezing fog after midnight through daybreak on Monday mainly across parts of North Louisiana along with adjacent areas in South Arkansas and East Texas. Otherwise, just expect a cold night with sub-freezing temperatures likely areawide by the time we reach sunrise Monday.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level trough is to the east of the region and another trough is to the northwest. The upper trough to the northwest split in two with the bottom portion staying over Southern California and Arizona.
322 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Rockies. At the surface, a trough/wind shift extends from Southeast Nebraska into the TX Panhandle. Upper trough will swing through dry today as moisture remains very limited. By Thu morning a sharp upper trough will be approaching the West Coast with upper ridging moving into the Plains. This will allow very warm temps to continue for Thu, although southerly winds will be on the increase as Lee troughing starts to strengthen.
516 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Rockies. At the surface, a trough/wind shift extends from Southeast Nebraska into the TX Panhandle. Upper trough will swing through dry today as moisture remains very limited. By Thu morning a sharp upper trough will be approaching the West Coast with upper ridging moving into the Plains. This will allow very warm temps to continue for Thu, although southerly winds will be on the increase as Lee troughing starts to strengthen.
It appears that the warm advection may result in lows tonight warmer than this morning even with the clear skies. Tomorrow will be another quiet day as the ridge extends into northern Rockies, and so the warming trend is expected to continue.
Yesterdays cold front is now through the northwestern half of the Gulf and across the FL panhandle. Only impact was the clouds but temperatures still dropped nice with near freezing temps in southwest MS to mid 40s across coastal MS and coastal SELA. S/W moving through overnight and this morning will give way to weak s/w ridging later today but quickly transitions back to northwest flow through the middle of the week before becoming more zonal as a ridge builds over the 4 corners and a broad L/W develops over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic. At the sfc there will be very little change as high pressure sets up over the Lower MS Valley likely becoming centered directly over the region.
While being stubborn, the low clouds are going to slowly clear the southern half of the area later this morning. A dry cold front will swing through quickly overnight and then exit the southeast by mid-morning. Despite the cold front moving through, the abundant sunshine will still allow temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s.
Here in nern WY/wrn SD, we lie between this low--which is part of broader troughing extending from the Upper MS Valley nwwd into the lee of the Canadian Rockies--and high pressure over the Intermountain West/Great Basin region. Even warmer 850 mb temps on Tuesday as upper ridge axis noses toward the region and general downslope flow continues.
There is a mid level system that will pass over northern lower this afternoon accompanied by a weak warm front which could bring some lower VFR CIGS to MBS and FNT for a period. Winds will be light out of the east this morning but will veer to southeasterly later this morning as the high shifts farther east but speeds should hold below 10 knots through the period. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool to a bit below average as polar high pressure passes over/northeast of the area.
The region will remain under a weak upper level ridge in the short term with deep moisture plume remaining to the north. Showers will continue into Tuesday across much of the higher terrain. Southeasterly winds increase with a low pressure system developing of the Pacific Northwest Coast. This will aid in temperatures reaching the upper 50s to low 60s today and Tuesday in the lower valleys.
617 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Warmer air mass settles in to start the work week with high pressure keeping conditions dry.
Radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to fall below freezing in most locations this morning. Combined wet soils from the recent rainfall, patchy freezing fog has developed, especially in Northeast and North Central Louisiana. Dense freezing fog has been occasionally observed at Monroe. No fog or freezing fog headlines are currently anticipated as any visibilities of one-quarter of a mile should be very isolated. Freezing fog will be possible across Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, and portions of East Texas east of a line from Lufkin to Avinger. Daytime high temperatures should be in the lower 60s today and climbing into the upper 60s on Tuesday. I would not be surprised if temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer than currently forecast for Tuesday. Most locations should be above freezing tonight, and any instance of sub-freezing temperatures should be very isolated.
Clear skies prevailed over the greater Tennessee Valley as high pressure settles over the region. The low cloud/fog and microphysics satellite view indicated this fog over parts of NE Alabama, mainly in the Paint Rock, Tennessee River, and DeKalb Valley regions. Given that we have about another 4 hours or so before the sun rises, more fog or freezing fog cannot be ruled out across the area. High pressure over the Southern Plains will build to the east and control the general weather.
506 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure will slowly move southeast across the region and weaken, with a surface boundary approaching the area Tuesday night before it washes out.
Low amplitude ridging extended from southern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska. With full sun and westerly winds, highs will reach the lower to middle 60s across the area. For highs today, trended temps toward the warmer MAV guidance as this verified best yesterday. Even warmer air will push into the forecast area on Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. Even with the warmer temps Tuesday, the higher dew points will lead to minimum RH of around 20 percent in SW Nebraska.
Guidance shows the next clipper energy rounds the top of the ridge over the Rockies and targets central ND with a band of precip expected to develop by midnight tonight. 00Z HREF FRAM output reinforces this scenario with a few hundredths of freezing rain possible from midnight to 6am Tuesday morning in SE ND as a result of the warm air aloft.
Behind this secondary boundary still lies a decaying cold front that is currently stretching from the Bay of Campeche to the Florida Panhandle. With the eventual frontal passage, a very broad but weak high pressure will slide southeast from the Central Plains and initially settle in the southeast U.
254 AM MST Mon Feb 28 2022 High pressure currently over the region will move to the east this morning. Another warm day is expected with highs 45 to 55 in most areas with somewhat cooler temperatures near the Canadian Border. A wave with a 130 knot jet max will move through the region this afternoon and evening with a warm front that will become a quasi- stationary front late tonight and Tuesday near the NE corner of Montana. This system will bring a chance for precipitation across the region tonight that will be light rain in most areas but in the NE corner of the state, temperatures will be below freezing which will allow for a mix of light rain, sleet, freezing rain, and light snow.
expect this unseasonably nice weather to continue for several days as high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere transitions across the local area through mid-week.