Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
315 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Upper low over northwest Mexico expected to kick northeast and open as it lifts across our area Thursday. This low has very minimal moisture so we do not anticipate much in way of cloud cover, though low level flow may remain backed from the south enough to avoid much downslope drying.
1240 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Hydro An area of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east today and through the Great Lakes Region on Thursday.
Followed the Superblend for Thursday's highs but did raise the high temperatures a few degrees southwest into the mid 40s. The building ridge across the region Thursday will maintain mild temperatures in the 30s to middle 40s Thursday with the warmest temperatures southwest.
253 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Light lake effect snow will taper off tonight, then high pressure will bring clearing skies for Thursday. Ridging at the surface will largely bring this activity to an end tonight, though a few flurries will persist over our far northern forecast area. With surface ridging not forecast to begin until tonight, we increased POPs for today and extended the lake bands farther to the south and east.
1122 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing an amplified ridge over the Rockies stretching into western Canada with hefty moisture riding up and over into the northern Plains.
155 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 A low pressure trough moving inland across central California Thursday will bring breezy, cooler weather and perhaps a few light showers along and west of the mountains. This trough will also bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts.
146 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 An upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with a trough over the east. A few strong gusts will be possible over the northern Hills/foothills, especially over the higher elevations, and especially towards midday Thursday during better mixing. A cold front will cross the region Thursday night ahead of an upper trough, bringing some light snow to northeastern WY and the Black Hills.
High pressure centered across Texas will slowly move eastward over the next day or so. Mid 30s are still expected across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley - however with winds expected to stay elevated as high pressure strengthens and moves eastward, frost formation doesn't appear as likely. Ridge axis moves into the Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning. High temperatures will be similar to today (low to mid 60s) across inland areas and a little cooler along the coast with the stronger fetch of northeasterly winds.
1033 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with frontal boundary stretching southeastward across MT and into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the Rockies, with fast northwest flow in place over the Northern Plains. Quiet weather to continue over the next couple of days as ridge slowly shifts east across the Rockies and Plains.
On Thursday, an upper level trough will move out of the Big Bend and into the southern High Plains. A weak impulse at the base of this trough will approach South Texas tomorrow.
/issued 1003 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018/ Early morning fog has transitioned into some low clouds as the cold front lingers over the southeastern part of the peninsula.
/Issued 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ Full sunshine today along with a light downslope component to surface winds will result in warmer temps this afternoon. /Issued 303 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ The weather across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be rather benign Today as high pressure prevails.
By Thursday, as ridge axis shifts east of our area, winds will become light southerly.
Skies should be mostly sunny through the day with highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Thus, we anticipate most areas to clear out in the low levels today, though there is some thin high clouds west river. With the favorable low level flow (albeit becoming more southerly) will go with higher end guidance for high temperatures today, as mixed temperatures to 900mb yield highs in the low to mid 40s. Went with the higher end of guidance for Thursday as well, though there continues to be some high cloud potential evident within the GFS 300mb RH, which is also noted in BUFKIT profiles.
313 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 At 3 PM, a ridge of high pressure was located over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The low clouds will persist through this evening and there are hints in the models that skies may gradually clear overnight. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower and mid 30s across the deep snow pack across parts of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, west-central Wisconsin and north-central Wisconsin. Elsewhere the high temperatures will be around 40.
A cold front will quickly traverse the Northern Rockies late tonight through Thursday. The Camas Prairie of Idaho could receive 2 to 4 inches of snow, while the higher elevation communities in the counties are expected to receive 3 to 6 inches by mid morning.
Mid/upper level troughing will shift off the eastern U. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will move across the Deep South into the southeast U. during the period shifting the low level winds from northerly to northeast and increasing the flow. This will continue to bring relatively dry air into the region in the low levels with the northeast flow beginning a gradual moderating trend. Ridging will remain in place aloft for the end of the week and through the first half of the weekend.
1221 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 The back edge of this morning's freezing drizzle and snow is gliding southeast over the southern shore of Lake Michigan. Some locations in the east are reporting freezing drizzle, but we expect all locations to transition to snow as this feature moves through.
An upper level trough will move across the area this evening.
Have therefore increased temperatures by a few more degrees resulting in highs in the lower to middle 60s /with highest temperatures noted across deep east Texas/. /issued 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ For the 24/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will continue to prevail as high pressure remains anchored at the surface. This high will shift overhead tonight with winds going calm at almost all sites, then trending southeasterly on Thursday as the high shifts farther eastward with speeds averaging around 5 kts or less.
With low-level moisture in place, expect a chance of snow flurries across the higher elevations as well as NETN and SWVA. Still, could have a dusting of snow across the higher elevations of SWVA and NETN. Ridging begins to build with subsidence and mostly clear conditions expected to bring lots of sunshine to the area. Low-level ridging begins to build in with temperatures warming up nicely near or slightly higher than normal, near MOS guidance.
251 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Strangely and interestingly enough, reduced visibility in haze, frost, or freezing fog showed up in Wolf Point during the middle of the day. Felt it was best to include some patchy freezing fog in the lower Missouri River valley in the forecast for now through tomorrow morning. Thanks to a strong and broad upper level ridge of high pressure over the region as a whole, today's warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions will persist through tomorrow (Thursday). As soon as Thursday afternoon, southwest flow aloft slides into eastern Montana, and a cold front moves eastward through the area by Thursday night.
a broad upper level ridge centered along the continental divide was observed in water vapor imagery late this afternoon with only a few high clouds across the area. The ridge axis will move across the area tonight ahead of an upper trough that moves toward the area tomorrow. With low pressure developing along the front range tomorrow the resulting pressure gradient will increase a bit resulting in south winds around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts along and south of the interstate. After low temperatures tonight in the low teens to low 20s high temperatures Thursday look to range from the upper 40s to low 50s over snow covered areas to the low 60s from near Hill City to Tribune.
325 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Temperatures have not warmed up much this afternoon as the low clouds and fog have been slow to dissipate with some areas of low clouds and fog remaining across northeast SD.
A stationary trough of low pressure located in eastern Colorado will keep the winds out of the southwest for the time period. Medium range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward across the Central Plains Thursday while a southwesterly downslope flow continues to reinforce the dry air mass across the Western High Plains.
/issued 257 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ An upper level trough over southern New Mexico will close off today before it moves across the South Plains on Thursday. Surface lee troughing will develop today leading to breezy southwest winds this afternoon and Thursday.
1037 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to move over the area today with the axis of said high moving overhead right around the noon timeframe. Upper level winds will become more southwesterly on the back side of the ridge allowing warmer air to move into the region. However, the warm air will ride up and over the inversions keeping high temperatures a bit cooler than model guidance.
Expect the VFR conditions to continue into the afternoon and early evening hours due to the drier air located in the lower levels of the atms over the RGV. Rain chances remain highest along the Rio Grande in the lower Valley near Brownsville today and tonight, but amounts will be very light with no major flight restrictions anticipated. A sharp moisture gradient exists across the lower portions of the Rio Grande Valley and over the southern coastal waters. Today, scattered showers are possible again mainly in the lower Rio Grande Valley with below-normal temperatures as skies remain mostly cloudy.
The upper low pressure trough continues to move east, while upper northwest flow is into the region. An upper high pressure ridge was over the Rockies.
239 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 A pleasant day across the Tennessee Valley today with 2PM temps around 50 in most areas or a few degrees cooler. Normal highs for this time of year are around 50-54 so we're right about there! The base of an upper trough is shifting through the area this afternoon with a slight increase in the northwest flow, making it feel a little breezy out there. Could be a few isolated spots of freezing fog but not enough to include in the forecast at this time. A broad mid level ridge builds over the northern Gulf and much of the southeast on Thursday.
200 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Much warmer conditions were observed over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today. Relative humidities will drop into the low to middle 20s west of Highway 65, with surface winds exceeding 20 mph.
211 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 A fairly benign weather pattern remains in place across the region, as water vapor imagery indicates a trough across the eastern CONUS, ridging across the west, and a cutoff low over northwestern Mexico. A persistent very dry airmass will slowly begin to modify under southerly surface flow and southwest flow aloft around the aforementioned cutoff low, which will result in slightly warmer overnight temperatures the next couple days. As upper ridging shifts eastward Thursday, a trough will develop across the west, and the aforementioned closed low will open up and lift northeastward across the Texas Panhandle.
310 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Sfc ridging practically overhead late this aftn has promoted light northerly winds to ensue, however plentiful insolation with only some thin cirrus has allowed for temps to warm mainly into the lower 60s per 21Z metars. Sfc ridging will slowly exit the region tonight, hence sfc winds will return to a southerly flow which will aid to keep overnight temps up into the lower 30s which is several degrees warmer than last night. Northwest flow aloft will give way to UL ridging tomorrow, coupled with a slight increase of 850 mb temps will lead to another above seasonal norm day /60s CWA-wide/.
255 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Under variably cloudy skies and mainly northeast winds of around 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a trough of low pressure is aligned about 20 to 30 nm southeast of the island chain, with an expansive continental ridge of high pressure extending from the south central United States and across the entire Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula. A large region of high pressure centered over eastern Texas and Louisiana will migrate swiftly eastward and intensify over the extreme southeast United States and the Carolinas over the next couple of days. In addition, the trough in the Straits of Florida will be pressed southward and away from the Florida keys.
Winds will become southerly around 5 mph area wide as the high moves farther to the east. Lows will be milder tonight ranging from the mid 20s in the normally colder spots to the mid 30s in the normally warmer spots. An upper level low that was over northern Mexico south of the Arizona/New Mexico line will open up as it moves northeast across the Southern Plains. This will help a lee side trough to deepen further Thursday.
1231 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Aviation An area of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east today and through the Great Lakes Region on Thursday.
225 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Much of the low level stratus clouds has either dissipated with diurnal heating, mixing, and drying, or advected east of the forecast area this afternoon. Warmer temperatures can be expected tonight with unseasonably warm highs on Thursday due to low-mid level warm air advection, surface winds becoming southwesterly on Thursday, and rising upper level heights as an upper level ridge shifts eastward into the central US on Thursday. GKS A ridge of high pressure over the region will quickly shift east away from the area due to a progressive upper air pattern in place.
131 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 High pressure remains in full control of the weather over eastern Utah and western Colorado this Wednesday afternoon. The axis of the 500mb ridge will pass east of the Divide by sunset, allowing a few high clouds to move overhead. Regarding precipitation with this weak trough, the forecast remains on track for a relatively light snow event in the eastern Uintas as well as the central and northern Colorado ranges. 3" of QPF in the highest terrain, and accumulations will likely run in the 2-5" range from the Elks and Sawatch ranges northward to the Gore and Park ranges.
859 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
Leftover moisture axis over eastern sections has allowed for convective development this evening as the cold front has closed in. The cold front will move across the area this afternoon through the evening hours and this will bring in drier air along with clearing skies as we get into the overnight hours. /15/ Monday night through Sunday: Monday evening our winds aloft will become near zonal as the closed low lifts farther to the northeast across the Great Lakes region.
Upper low over movg into se KS will move quickly into upper MS river valley of IA/IL by Mon mrng and into lower Great Lakes Mon eve. Moisture to increase late Tue as upper trough quickly digs swd into area and closes off Wed, with heavy rainfall amounts possible, especially LA portions.
An upper trough and surface cold front will remain in play through tonight. Doppler radar is showing an increase in returns back in Mississippi near the approaching cold front; thus, precipitation chances remain in the TAFs tonight into early-mid Monday morning. 89^GSatterwhite Strong gusty winds possible today ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain chances remain low through this afternoon as the cold front moves through.
High pressure will gradually move over the region during the upcoming week bringing a significant warming trend to the area. Previous forecast seems to be on track with a quiet weather week before the next low pressure system moves into the region this coming weekend. Dry northwest flow has set up over the region ahead of a strong ridge, which should move inland mid-week and increase daily highs and lows. Increasing temperatures can be expected over the next few days as ridging builds into the area.
Significant storm system to impact the region into Monday Observational data indicate an intense, deep-layer cyclone over south-central KS as of 19z with the center of this system forecast to track just to the south and east of our forecast area tonight into Monday. Increasing height falls ahead of the cyclone coupled with pronounced low-level warm advection and isentropic upglide have fostered widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across the area today. Across the higher terrain of our northwest CWA, a mixture of rain and snow has been reported. This is especially the case where the highest precipitation rates are occurring.
Forecast soundings have indicated that the atmospheric column will cool overnight in southwest, west central and central Minnesota where surface temperatures will fall to near freezing. Overall, we will see the upper trough shift eastward through the week as an upper ridge builds into the center of the country.
A cooler, cloudy and showery day expected on Monday. Currently, the western edge of a high pressure ridge axis extended across southern Ontario, northern Minnesota, and into northeastern North Dakota. Meanwhile another low pressure center was over southern Alberta with a trough extending south across eastern Montana/Wyoming. Winds over western ND had become southerly today in response to the western low/trough. Strong gusty northwest winds will develop behind the low/trough, but the strongest winds should be west and south of our area.
915 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Afternoon water vapor loop showed the intense low pressure system spinning over the south central Plains. Visible images detected the western edge of the higher clouds over the eastern NE panhandle, with scattered mid and high clouds spreading southeast across the western 2/3 of WY. Temperatures rebounded quickly from sub-freezing morning lows to the 40s and 50s.
Beginning to see thunderstorms develop along the cold front over central Missouri where the atmosphere has recovered somewhat. But then, will see a chance of rain moving back into central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois as the upper low currently over the central Plains moves northeast into Iowa. Temperatures will drop behind the cold front tonight.
/Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Deep upper cyclone was spinning along the KS/OK border with isolated cold-core showers impacting parts of northeast OK. This activity will gradually diminish by early evening as the upper low pulls away. Warmer conditions expected into Monday.
/issued 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Unseasonably strong and textbook cyclone centered over south- central KS was slowly pulling away from the TX South Plains this afternoon, but not after subjecting portions of our N-NE zones to frequent high winds with gusts measured as high as 65 mph. With the departure of the LLJ underway, will let the high wind warning expire at 4 PM and maintain a wind advisory through 8 PM for all but our SW and far western counties.
The 500 mb upper low was over south central Kansas at 18z. The radar mosiac was showing showers near the low center expanding diurnally early this afternoon. This shower activity should move through northeast Kansas late this and evening along with the upper low. These light westerly winds combined with generally clear skies will keep low temperatures Monday night in the low/mid 40s.
842 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to push east overnight as a cold front approaches from the NW.
/issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cold front about to cross the Atchafalaya with a wrly low-level flow and 40s/50s dewpoints in place across the forecast area. Dry weather looks on tap for the early part of the work week as forecast soundings indicate good drying continuing through tonight as wrly winds dominate through the column thanks to high pressure moving from srn TX to the nrn Gulf. Looking for a cooler than normal night tonight with lows in the 50s (possibly upper 40s TX Lakes region) all but the immediate coastline. but the dry column will allow for a good warmup tomorrow with maxes running in the lower 80s most of the area.
730 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
However, the cold front is just now crossing the MS River. The question for the rest of the evening is whether or not we will see any redevelopment along the cold front. Much drier and cooler air is forecast to move in behind the front on Monday.
High pressure taking control over the region will result in a quite benign short term forecast. will likely halt cooling along the coast well before sunrise and keep temperatures in the lower 60s within 10-15 miles of the coastline. Cloud free skies will continue through tomorrow, and with a southerly surface flow and southwest to south 850mb flow anticipate temperatures much warmer than today, likely back to the lower 90s west and mid and upper 80s east. As onshore flow increases Monday night, dpts rapidly increase into the lower and mid 60s.
Tonight and Tomorrow: Cold front extends generally along the Mississippi river this afternoon and is working its way across the area. The cold front will move across the area this afternoon through the evening hours and this will bring in drier air along with clearing skies as we get into the overnight hours. /15/ Monday night through Sunday: Monday evening our winds aloft will become near zonal as the closed low lifts farther to the northeast across the Great Lakes region.
After that, it's a couple of recovery days for much of the remainder of the short term, with much cooler air sweeping down on the back side of the Low for Monday-Monday night in particular. There is an elevated warm front displaced maybe 25-50 miles to the north, where some overrunning energy could pop a few showers/storms. The model blend suggests that showers in the eastern half of the region could linger into Fri evening, but this seemed to be mainly because of the deterministic GFS, which had the mid/upper low more cut off from the mid level flow over the eastern CONUS.
628 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a maturing cyclone located over northwestern Oklahoma, just east of the panhandle. A broad area of deformation precipitation had developed this afternoon on the northern and northwestern periphery of the low and was backing into the forecast area from the east. Ending of precipitation in association with the upper level low, as well as snow accumulations for tonight are the main forecast concerns.
Embedded within the flow are smaller regional waves with a ridge axis over eastern Montana and northern Wyoming. To the west a broad weak amplified trough is moving into Washington and Oregon. Today through Tonight: As the ridge axis exits this afternoon a jet band ahead of the trough axis will push in behind rapidly destabilizing the atmosphere. Monday: axis of the trough aloft should move through along with CAA and strong winds reducing temperatures for daytimes high and producing enough condensation for more widespread showers post front especially across the northeastern zones.
/issued 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Upper low over OK this morning will move NE with upper ridge building in from west.
835 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Convection is redeveloping just ahead of the cold front in eastern MS, mainly along the AL/MS border. Adjusted grids for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight to handle the movement of the storms and cold front across the area. Much drier and cooler air is forecast to move in behind the front on Monday.