Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest WV satellite shows ridging over the western CONUS and large scale troughing with large scale cyclonic flow over the eastern two thirds of North America with the latest impulse in this flow currently seen over southern WI. At the surface, broad high pressure has developed over the northern and central High Plains in the wake of the aforementioned impulse.
35 Relatively quiet weather next several days with a couple of dry cold frontal passages. The main weather feature will be warmer conditions ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The dry cold front sags southward into our region Thursday afternoon into Friday, bringing drier air and shifting winds to the north-northeast.
/Today through Friday/ A cold front stretching from near Clarksville, Texas, to Hope, Arkansas, will continue to move southeast across the region today.
1052 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 (This evening through Thursday) The weather pattern in the short term is benign with the only feature of note being a cold front and associated wind shift currently moving through the area. This means temperatures tomorrow will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, and around 5 degrees below early October normals.
One trough and associated showers passed through this morning with some subsidence/drying behind it into early this afternoon. This was short-lived though as water vapor showing another mid-level trough dropping into northern MN from Manitoba. This convection is expected to wane this evening as the trough passes and we lose surface heating. Yet another trough drops into the area later tonight into Thursday for more showers and isolated storms. Surface ridging will work in from the west Thursday night into Friday with a brief break in precip chances. On Thursday night, lows may be impacted by any lingering cloud cover, especially with the ridge axis hanging west of the area, but the airmass would support lows of 25 to 35 for most areas.
We won't see a dramatic drop in temperatures behind the front today, but highs will at least be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
310 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Pacific high pressure over the Southeast will yield to a cold front that will cross VA and NC this afternoon and early tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through the weekend. So while temps in most areas will bottom out in the lower to mid 50s tomorrow morning, some upper 40s will be possible in the typically cooler locations. The approach of the next front and associated mid level trough from the NW will bring the increase in clouds. The mid/upper level trough will swing through overnight Thursday. The weekend will begin with high pressure sitting to the north of North Carolina, bringing cool northeasterly flow to the region.
An upper level trough will broaden and become more established over the eastern CONUS through Thursday. At the surface, a dry cold front will drop down to the central gulf coast possibly reaching our northwest zones by Thursday evening. Until then, after another cool night tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s, we will see a slight warm up on Thursday with highs in the lower 80s. The long-wave trough will remain in place across the region during this period. A dry cold frontal passage Thursday night will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air to the forecast area.
308 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Today and tonight: An amplified synoptic pattern will remain in place with stout ridging across the Great Basin and a downstream mean longwave trough. The CWA will be just west of the trough axis with northwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A dry cold front dropping out of the Great Plains will move through the area today with dew points dropping into the low 40s by tomorrow morning. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s north of I- 20 to the low 80s along and south of I-20.
226 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A cold front continues to move through the Kentucky Pennyrile in the pre-dawn hours. A broad, upper-level trough will develop in the Midwest, sending temperatures below average for the remainder of the week and weekend. With the trough more firmly entrenched, highs will be in the low to mid 60s.
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A deep upper level trough will remain centered over the Great Lakes into the upcoming weekend.
At the surface, a weak cold front will push southeast across the Ozarks with northwest winds increasing and becoming gusty. The coolest readings will be across the Truman Lake region where highs will be in the lower 60s. Areas near the Arkansas border will push the 70 degree mark with downslope flow also aiding warmer temperatures in this region.
A cold front has just pushed across the Ohio River this evening, shifting winds to the northwest in its wake. The bulk of the cooler air is still well off to our northwest in central IN/IL, but it will gradually advect in over the next several hours. Gusty SW winds continue ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. The cold front is expected to pass through later this evening, with a brief (2-3 hours) increase in cloud cover. A few showers (20- 30%) could drop into our NE again, but overall still calling for a mostly dry day elsewhere and slightly cooler highs confined to the 60s.
It will feel much cooler tomorrow with highs only expected to reach the mid 60s across the area. Expect the cooler air post frontal airmass to continue to filter in through tomorrow night as appreciable cold air advection continues in the 850mb-700mb layer. A combination of weak high pressure off to the east and lee troughing in the west will return southerly flow to the area on Friday.
Tonight overnight lows will drop to the lower to mid 40s with afternoon highs Thursday capped to the lower 50s north and in the mid to upper 50s over the central and south. Overnight mins have been adjusted a couple of degrees upward this package, due to increase in clouds and guidance which is also warmer.
Temperatures behind the front will be pretty much right at seasonal norms today and much cooler than we saw yesterday afternoon. No change in the unrelenting ridge pattern over the western half of CONUS.
1125 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A deep upper level trough will remain centered over the Great Lakes into the upcoming weekend.
Warmer temperatures west of the scattered sprinkles have resulted in relative humidity levels dropping below 25 percent through the James River Valley as of 4 pm. Cloud cover will continue to advance southeast out of Minnesota overnight, and a few lingering sprinkles could be possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Have raised temperatures slightly given the persistent mixing, but temperatures in most areas will fall into the lower 40s. Thursday Night into Friday: Frost will remain possible by Friday morning as surface ridging moves overhead. As a result, have trended overnight lows slightly warmer than previous guidance.
Water vapour looks quite familiar: upper ridge over the western CONUS with deep low near Hudson Bay. Steep low level lapse rates may support a stray shower as a cold front moves through the CWA in the afternoon/evening hours.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across deep south Texas early this morning with high pressure in control. Tranquil weather conditions will persist through the next 36 hours as mid level ridging overhead provides subsidence across the region. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure moving south into the Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf arrives late tonight into Friday.
322 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Today will be much cooler than yesterday as cooler air continues to filter in behind a cold front that moved through the area yesterday. Mid 30s will be possible by Friday morning across some of the typically cooler sites in NW Arkansas and NE Oklahoma.
A dry cold front has started to make its way through Middle TN this morning. While currently inconsequential, it will bring with it much drier air and cooler temperatures that will be felt over the next few days.
The RH values will also not be as low today since our high temperatures will be around another 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Temperatures will be a little bit cooler this afternoon across the Big Country- upper 70s and lower 80s- due to some modest cold air advection behind the front.
High pressure builds from the west through the day, which should clear most of this lower cloud cover.
An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will stay fairly stationary but amplify through the near term period. Meanwhile, a reinforcing surface cold front will progress over the southeastern CONUS during this time, with passage over the local area this afternoon and evening. This feature is not expected to bring much precipitation or clouds, but usher in cooler, drier air as well as increased northwesterly winds down into the deep south by late week. Highs Today will be a tick warmer than they were yesterday given the slightly warmer air and compressional warning in advance of the approaching front. With the drier and cooler air continuing to move in Friday, highs will likely remain on the low side with areas struggling to reach the upper 70s.
Skies were partly cloudy with cumulus fields developing near the Lower Keys, with a shallow light northeast to east flow already organizing cumulus near the Lower Keys.
another cold front moves through this morning lowering high temperatures into the mid 60s. I wont go quite that low given the possible impact of the high clouds preventing temps from getting to the MOS numbers. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 70s with low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
1005 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Another crossing cold front will return shower chances late today through Friday morning.
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue this week as strong high pressure aloft persists. High pressure aloft persists across the west maintaining stable and weakly forced low levels. Interior areas will also continue to be on the warm side as subsidence and high height combine to maintain the higher than normal temperatures.
Upper high pressure ridge will continue to sit over the PacNW and the forecast area. Winds will be light under the ridge.
534 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 With high pressure firmly in control across the entire western U. Below normal lows will be seen in some of the higher valleys of northwest Colorado, areas that have already seen their season ending hard freeze. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday due to this passing disturbance, but still remaining about 5 degrees above normal. High pressure builds right back into the region this weekend with dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and above normal daytime temperatures.
Moderation will take place SAT night into SUN as the upper trof broadens out and low/mid level ridging noses in from the west, but this will be short lived as another infusion of jet energy dropping through the Plains sends another reinforcing front through the area SUN night. This will at least push the pause button on any further warming until mid week, when temperatures are expected to climb to near seasonal normals underneath the ridge building back in.
Forecast Summary: Areas of frost and potential sub-freezing temperatures remain likely tonight.
Expect sunny conditions and highs reaching into the lower 70s. lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s. Highs on Friday will be cooler and highs will not get out of the 60s.
Today Through Friday Night Currently across the CONUS, upper level troughing is situated over the Great Lakes with amplified ridging along the west coast. At the surface, a cold front is currently making its way across southern portions of Arkansas with northerly winds picking up behind the boundary. Other than a subtle wind shift, the front will pass quietly with high pressure moving towards the region from the central plains today. Tonight, cooler air will advect into the state with lows falling well into the 40s. Lows overnight Friday should still fall into the 40s, however should stay 2 to 5 degrees warmer than the previous morning as moisture begins to build back into the region from the gulf.
High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions through Friday, with varying amounts of smoke aloft. A weak disturbance will move across the Pac NW this weekend, strengthening onshore flow and bringing cooler temperatures.
The shift in the smoke trajectory is due to the ridge being shifted south slightly.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days.
Highs today will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s with 50s in the higher elevations. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 47 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 45 64 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 45 65 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 42 62 40 65 / 10 0 0 0 0.
Temperatures will be a little cooler there as well but it will still be very dry. The cooler air mass on the plains will keep a little inversion around 8-10 thousand feet MSL and most of the smoke should be above this inversion. Guidance was slightly cooler today, but the smoke also needs to be considered. If the cloud cover holds off long enough it could get into the lower 30s there. The dominant ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Western U.
311 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 With high pressure firmly in control across the entire western U. Below normal lows will be seen in some of the higher valleys of northwest Colorado, areas that have already seen their season ending hard freeze. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday due to this passing disturbance, but still remaining about 5 degrees above normal. High pressure builds right back into the region this weekend with dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and above normal daytime temperatures.
High pressure rebuilding behind a cold front will bring northeast winds up to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming northwest at 5 knots after 02/00Z. /Today through Friday/ A cold front stretching from near Clarksville, Texas, to Hope, Arkansas, will continue to move southeast across the region today.
At the surface a ridge of high pressure extended across the northern and central High Plains, into west central Kansas. Model output suggests at least mid to upper 60s at Hays and only marginally warmer as one moves to the less breezy/gusty areas from Syracuse to Liberal. The surface ridging will give way to a lee trough on Friday and a return to southwest flow across the area.
/Issued 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ Today will be much cooler than yesterday as cooler air continues to filter in behind a cold front that moved through the area yesterday. Mid 30s will be possible by Friday morning across some of the typically cooler sites in NW Arkansas and NE Oklahoma.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across deep south Texas early this morning with high pressure in control. Tranquil weather conditions will persist through the next 36 hours as mid level ridging overhead provides subsidence across the region. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure moving south into the Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf arrives late tonight into Friday.
1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure extending up from the Gulf coast will weaken through tonight as a moisture starved cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and offshore Friday morning followed by cool and dry high pressure for the weekend. Weak area of high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear and dry today and tonight ahead of another approaching cold front. Highs today will be very near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while highs Friday will range below average for early October in the low to mid 70s. Broad mid level troughing will give way to a southwest flow. At the surface, high pressure will move across the Mid Atlantic then offshore through the period.
731 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure extending up from the Gulf coast will weaken through tonight as a moisture starved cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and offshore Friday morning followed by cool and dry high pressure for the weekend. Weak area of high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear and dry today and tonight ahead of another approaching cold front. Highs today will be very near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while highs Friday will range below average for early October in the low to mid 70s. Broad mid level troughing will give way to a southwest flow. At the surface, high pressure will move across the Mid Atlantic then offshore through the period.
515 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Another crossing cold front will return shower chances late today through Friday morning.
A dry cold front is currently pushing into the area and is expected to move through the area today with little to no impact aside from a slight increase in cloud cover. /Issued 328 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ High pressure ridge currently stretches from southern Texas to the Florida Panhandle. A weak, dry front is situated from the eastern Great Lakes back through the lower Mississippi River Valley. Strong high pressure will build in behind the weak boundary on Friday.
At the surface a ridge of high pressure extended across the northern and central High Plains, into west central Kansas. Model output suggests at least mid to upper 60s at Hays and only marginally warmer as one moves to the less breezy/gusty areas from Syracuse to Liberal. The surface ridging will give way to a lee trough on Friday and a return to southwest flow across the area. The area is behind a surface cold front Tonight, with deep layer cold advection ongoing. An 850 mb ridge will be found in the westernmost counties on Thursday.
A cold front continues to move through the Kentucky Pennyrile in the pre-dawn hours. A broad, upper-level trough will develop in the Midwest, sending temperatures below average for the remainder of the week and weekend. With the trough more firmly entrenched, highs will be in the low to mid 60s.
A dry backdoor cold front has moved west to near the Continental Divide early this morning. Cooler conditions are expected today across eastern New Mexico in the wake of a cold front last night.
A dry cold front will move through the are today with northerly winds around 7-10kts. /TW/ Today and tonight: An amplified synoptic pattern will remain in place with stout ridging across the Great Basin and a downstream mean longwave trough. The CWA will be just west of the trough axis with northwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A dry cold front dropping out of the Great Plains will move through the area today with dew points dropping into the low 40s by tomorrow morning. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s north of I- 20 to the low 80s along and south of I-20.
Overnight scattered showers and thunderstorms have diminished to isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the waters north of the Lower Keys. Otherwise, surface observations reveal another muggy morning with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Not a whole lot of change in the overall pattern with a deep upper level trough situated over the Great Lakes region.
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 An upper level trough will persist over the Great Lakes through this weekend, providing below normal temperatures.
High pressure will maintain a warm, dry and stable airmass across the region through the upcoming weekend.
Winds will remain relatively light, with the highest gusts of 15 to 20 mph expected this afternoon over the mountains and west of the Divide. Expect similar conditions again Friday, as a shallow cold front moves through areas east of the Divide.
A deepening longwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic states tonight will aid in keeping temperatures much cooler across the area in the near term. Overnight a Canadian high pressure system is expected to quickly move into the central southern states by tomorrow morning. Prior to this, a dry cold front associated with the upper level trough will move through the area overnight tonight, which will slightly increase our winds overnight from near calm to around 10 mph out of the north/northwest. Overall, Friday may be slightly more breezy compared to today; however, sunny conditions and high temperatures only slightly cooler are expected. Overnight lows will generally remain in the low to mid 50s across the region with some low 60s remaining along the coast.
357 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Isolated to scattered showers this evening will be followed by a return to dry weather as cool suface high pressure moves over the region. as isolated to scattered showers continue under the encroachment of cold upper low pressure.
The main story this week will be below normal temperatures through the weekend as northwest flow aloft and the potential for cold frontal passages persists. As for tonight, temperatures will be a bit colder than they have been, lows will be in the lower 40s with light winds and clear skies.
243 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure situated along the west coast will maintain dry and mild conditions across the region through the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures have likely reached their maximum values in the l-m 70s, and should begin to descend fairly quickly around sunset, as low-level northwesterly flow around 10 MPH advects a cooler/drier airmass into the region.
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 We continue to see a large mid/upper ridge across the Central Great Basin and Northern Intermountain region including much of the West Coast while an expansive mid/upper trough was over the Great lakes area and impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS. As high pressure settles south across the area tonight, low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s for low-lying and rural areas. The persistent pattern of western ridge and eastern trough will pretty much remain intact with some subtle variations as we move through the period. As the main mid/upper trough axis migrates slightly eastward we'll have an increasing influence from the mid/upper ridge although NW mid/upper flow is progged to prevail through the period. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.
Re-enforcing cold front working through Alabama this afternoon is hardly noticable outside of a mild wind shift.
High pressure works in for the start of the weekend.
An upper level trough remains anchored over the eastern conus of the U. today into Friday while a surface cold front comes in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. This front will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air with no precipitation. Thursday night will feature lows in the lower to middle 50's with northwesterly winds becoming northerly at 5 to 10mph. Friday winds will relax some to generally 5mph, and with the reinforced cool airmass highs will generally stay in the lower to maybe middle 70's with clear skies.
a reinforcing cold front will move across the forecast area for the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Moderation will take place SAT night into SUN as the upper trof broadens out and low/mid level ridging noses in from the west, but this will be short lived as another infusion of jet energy dropping through the Plains sends another reinforcing front through the area SUN night. This will at least push the pause button on any further warming until mid week, when temperatures are expected to climb to near seasonal normals underneath the ridge building back in.
257 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developed just north of the Lower Keys and north of the reef out through Dry Tortugas, notably a bit north than CAMs guidance had suggested. The overall synoptic situation remains complex into the weekend with high pressure retreating over the western Atlantic, a meandering frontal zone near and northwest of the Keys with continental high pressure building into the southeast, and falling pressures to our southwest as a tropical wave slowly moves west- northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula.