Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. TEMP FORECAST WAS ON TRACK TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
417 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA COAST CONTINUING TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT EAST AND GIVE WAY TO LEESIDE TROUGHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
A DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN PUSH WINDS AT LEAST CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. MOST SO AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING WARNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING JUST WEST AND NW OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
401 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM WERE ABLE TO DROP DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLIER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW HIGH.
SPECIFICALLY, HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM AND HI RES MODELS DEPICT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINED OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE VALLEY. WITHOUT THE FOCUSING MECHANISM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST.
PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER FRIDAY. WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE. MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADUALLY FLATTENING UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT-TERM INVOLVES WHETHER CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWFA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT ENDING PRECIP THREAT. TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE A FEW DEG COOLER VS FRI.
/ISSUED 927 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT STABLE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE ON FRIDAY.
154 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
633 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. BUT SOME SPOTS COULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK BY DAWN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONLY REAL NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE TO DROP DEW POINT READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
130 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
307 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 MODIFIED POLAR COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT S OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY FRI MORNING. REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. AS THE COOLER/DRIER WEDGE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG DOME OF 1026-1028MB HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC STILL LOOKS TO BUILD SWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. USHERING IN SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH DEW PTS RECOVERING A LITTLE BIT INTO THE LOWER 30S PERHAPS. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW. AS SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
308 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MRNG. BUT NEVERTHELESS WE ARE EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED MIXING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON SAT A CAT OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE WAA PATTERN WILL CONT INTO SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SRN CANADA. MAINLY IN THE ERN CWA AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH FA.
323 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
137 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER.
BUT SOME SPOTS COULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK BY DAWN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
High pressure at the surface will maintain VFR conditions thru the TAF period. /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ Finally, a quiet day is on tap today with high pressure positioned across the Plains region today.
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. /ISSUED 955 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016/ REINFORCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ON THROUGH THE REGION AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE SRN CA COAST AS PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 30. THE COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD DROP DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE.
402 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 (Today and Tonight) Weak cold front has pushed across all of West Central Texas this morning.
1215 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE LOWER 30S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER.
A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER ERN WI FOR THE LATE AFT AND EVE HOURS.
351 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO. THIS WAVE IS APART OF A MUCH LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WARM TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD CONFINE ANY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BENEATH AN INCREASING AND GRADUALLY THICKENING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD. WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF SOLAR HEATING SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SWRN CO.
321 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Finally, a quiet day is on tap today with high pressure positioned across the Plains region today.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH WITH COOLING THROUGH THE EVNG.
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING EVEN A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
658 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
330 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 CURRENTLY WATCHING A A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE FIRST PACIFIC SYSTEM IN A SERIES OF EXPECTED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND MAIN EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
749 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DEEPEN OUR MARINE LAYER.
847 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING OVERHEAD. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ECHOS LIFTING NORTH OVER MUCH OF MN EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S TODAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70 WILL RETURN WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. EXCEPT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE COAST COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS WILL BURN OFF THE LOW CLOUDS LATER SAT AM.
With ridging holding in tonight, don't expect much if any precip. although some of the high-res WRF members do spit out some sprinkles. this seems unlikely given the subsidence provided by the ridge aloft. It looks like mid-high clouds may be increasing toward morning, and therefore some decent insulation so I used a blend of guidance which ended up producing lows close to the warmer end of MOS numbers across the area.
422 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS PEMBINA. TO NEAR MOBRIDGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA. ON FRIDAY WESTERN CONUS WILL BE IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
409 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2015 High pressure over the west coast for mainly fair skies and warmer than normal tempertures through the weekend. High pressure aloft over the west coast for fair skies this morning. Drop off in winds and increased subsidence under the ridge will bring several degrees of warming today. Mid range models in fair agreement in digging a weak trough over the Pacific Northwest southward into the Great Basin over the weekend. The weak low that forms over Norcal along the tail end of this trough may produce enough instability for some isolated mountain showers or thunderstorms afternoon and evening hours over the weekend.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMER WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
910 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S.
929 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS CUTOFF UPPER LOWS REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.
1250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE ARE FOR END OF PERIOD. DIMINISHING INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA AFTER 18Z.
A VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION.
That of which I speak is a slow moving upper level low, which is currently moving from the Great Basin into the Four Corners Region and, which will be the driving force for precipitation chances through the weekend. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s. This will happen as the upper level low finally begins its slow migration into the High Plains. By Friday afternoon the upper level low will move into eastern Colorado. In response to that weak upper level ridging will move into the local area.
BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S. WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST.
UPPER LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL ROTATE CLOUDS UP INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S. WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST.
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW. A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. A WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S ON THE LOWER DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.
1205 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AVIATION LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THE NEXT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR AS PRECIP DEVELOPS LATER ON. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF.
1044 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AT 12Z UPPER LOW WAS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE REST OF OUR CWA WAS CLEAR AND DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE COAST. SIMPLE FORECAST OF DRY AND WARMER WX NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1032 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY.
731 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS THAT WERE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING HAVE RISEN ABOVE 32 DEGREES.
INITIAL CONCERN IS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MAY AS WELL THROW IN A COASTAL TROF ANALYZED JUST OFF THE COAST.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ECHOS LIFTING NORTH OVER MUCH OF MN EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S TODAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70 WILL RETURN WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. EXCEPT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
1048 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A VERY DEEP 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETUP SHOULD YIELD A SLOW MIGRATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
957 AM MST THU APR 16 2015 EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
Areas over central MO (KAIZ/KVIH) look a bit drier in the low levels. Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon with height rises ahead of a large cutoff low over the central Rockies. Guidance trends have been to slow onset time with the upper low initially hanging back a bit.
AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN A SPLIT FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND A CLOSED LOW WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CREEPING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OPENS AND EJECTS TO THE EAST. DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
1008 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE LIES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NORTH FLORIDA.
1123 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HYDRO LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF.
935 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2015 High pressure over the west coast for mainly fair skies and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend.
1033 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 A VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A WIND SHIFT INTO KDHT AND KGUY THIS MORNING.
STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE CURVING THROUGH OCALA THEN TO APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
740 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE MUCH ADVERTISED COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE WILL RESULT IN NEAR 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD. HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS. VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
736 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AVIATION LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF.