Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front that will enter our north and northwest counties late this morning or early this afternoon and gradually works its way toward the coast late tonight through early tomorrow morning. The front is still expected to linger somewhere between the Highway 59 area and near or just off the coast through Saturday evening. Look for cooler and closer to mid February normal temperatures behind the front along with an increase in rain chances over the weekend (higher chances across our northern counties and lower chances closer to the coast).
Temps across the lower elevations ranged from the upper teens across northern El Paso county to 30F along the CO/NM border. Main concern will be how long will the low clouds hang around. Based on latest hi-res guidance low cigs may linger until late morning across most of the lower elevations. Temps today will be noticeably cooler than yesterdays as highs will only be in the 40s most of the plains.
Drier and warmer conditions are will develop today and into the weekend.
The upper disturbance contributing to the cold front approaching north central Texas is predicted to dissipate followed by a quasi- zonal upper pattern over the CONUS. The foregoing pattern is not conducive to the progression of a cold front.
614 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 A cold front will continue to work through the region today.
1012 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 A narrow line of enhanced showers and a sharp wind shift identify the location of a surface cold front that is moving into our northern sections at the moment.
Another cold front will sweep away this moisture Saturday afternoon with little to no effect on temperatures.
Several of the high resolution near term models suggest that the event may even be convective in nature.
A trough/closed low off the southern California coast will remain cutoff and stay in that general area allowing moisture to stream into southern Arizona and New Mexico. This wave will bring some isolated snowshowers to the Elkheads and Park Range with some minor accumulation expected for the higher elevations. Saturday more of the same though there should be more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
409 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 The cold front continues to rapidly push south across the forecast area this morning and will clear our counties within the next hour. Lift associated in this region of the jet combined with the passage of the base of a weak trough will combine to produce the precipitation.
Isolated showers may develop over the northern sections this afternoon as a cold front approaches. The upper disturbance contributing to the cold front approaching north central Texas is predicted to dissipate followed by a quasi- zonal upper pattern over the CONUS. The foregoing pattern is not conducive to the progression of a cold front.
A cold front is racing south across Missouri this morning and is moving through KCGI as of 3 am. The cold front will race through this morning reaching Memphis by 8 am and Tupelo by 11 am then exiting the Mid-South by early afternoon.
520 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 Rain will taper off today, as a cold front exits the region. Dry weather will return tonight and Saturday morning as high pressure slides east across the region. Similar to last night, models continue to struggle with low pressure and a cold front moving up the coast Saturday afternoon and night.
Warm/quiet WX pattern in play as an H100-H70 anticyclone centered btwn Bermuda and the Bahama Bank generates a deep S/SW flow while keeping the lcl airmass well surpressed. The close proximity of the ridge axis will maintain a weak sfc/low lvl pgrad over central FL thru the day, while low atmospheric moisture will allow near full sun thru early aftn. These two features will combine to generate a weak east coast sea breeze by mid aftn that will keep coastal temps a few degs cooler than the interior. Favorable boating conds as a high pres ridge extending from the nrn Bahamas into the ern GOMex generates a light to gentle S/SW breeze over the lcl Atlc.
All of that will change this morning as a cold front currently crossing the Ohio River drops southeastward across Middle Tennessee. There will be a break in the showers tonight under influence of high pressure over the Ohio Valley. Rain will taper off early Saturday night with high pressure taking over.
A cold front moving through the area this morning is expected to reach FST by around 15Z. /issued 445 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/ Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front moving thru the South Plains, w/fropa expected at KMAF ~ 11Z. Further out, WV imagery shows the upper trough pushing the cold front extending from the Great Lakes region into the SW CONUS. Accompanying this trough is a strong 180+kt jet maximized around 250mb, which matches up nicely w/GOES HD winds. Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig south out of the PacNW, keeping SW flow aloft over the region and keeping temps up the first part of the week. Unfortunately, a cold front will push into the area Tue, taking temps well-blo normal by Wed afternoon.
Widespread highs in the lower 30s are favored by a consensus of the rapidly updating suites through their 06 UTC iterations.
Light snow will develop in the higher terrain of Baker County and in the West Central Mountains of Idaho where accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. A low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Temperatures will be warmer (near normal) today and above normal on Saturday.
601 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 It will be breezy and warm ahead of an approaching cold front today.
Cold front is currently making very slow headway through southern Indiana. A transient area of high pressure builds in tonight, and we'll cool to around the freezing mark, which is actually still just a shade above normal for mid-February. As for QPF, this system will bring its heaviest rain, just over a half inch, to the areas that receive less rain from the cold front today.
High pressure will pass by to the south of the area later this afternoon and this evening.
Cold front moved through the Panhandles last night, temperatures will be much colder today with highs in the 40s across the Panhandles. By late tonight winds will be shifting back out of the south as warmer air returns to the Panhandles.
Expect highs pushing the lower to mid 40s(F) this afternoon with the warmer temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas, particularly if enough sunshine breaks out. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across central Kansas Friday night with the lower to mid 30s(F) likely in extreme southwest Kansas.
951 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 A cold front that produced widespread rain has moved south, allowing colder temperatures and drier conditions to visit with high pressure by tonight. On Saturday, low pressure traveling across the Southern Appalachians will bring precipitation mainly to southeastern locations.
The large scale pattern early today will feature a low amplitude upper level trough affecting much of the central and eastern CONUS with northwest flow overhead. Despite some warmer air pushing into southwest NEB and the NEB Panhandle under southwest flow, highs are expected to run cooler across southwest NEB than yesterday.
An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida today bringing a mostly sunny sky and dry conditions. Winds initially more S or even SSW this morning with low level ridge axis further south.
613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 It will be breezy and warm ahead of an approaching cold front today.
An upper trof moves across the interior eastern states through this evening followed by another upper trof which advances across the Plains late tonight.
328 AM PST Fri Feb 16 2018 Temperatures will trend higher today and Saturday as high pressure builds inland.
A cold front will move through the area from the northwest mainly during the afternoon. Meanwhile back to the northwest, a cold front is just entering the northwest corner of AR heading southeast. Despite the cloud cover, another warm day is in store for those spending the majority of the day ahead of the cold front.
Based on the latest trends have cut back on the lower vsbys and kept the restrictions limited to VLD and TLH. The low clouds will be slow to improve this morning. An upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will weaken today while at the surface, a cold front pushes into the southeast, with the front weakening as it pushes southward.
High pressure will bring one last day of dry and mild weather across northwest California. High pressure will bring one final day of dry and mild weather to northwest California today. Then 500mb heights will fall on Saturday as trough sinks over the Pacific Northwest.
A large area of high pressure over the Central Plains will build rapidly east today and tonight. Another cold front will push in from the northwest later Saturday into Saturday night possibly leading to some snow showers. Cold air advection was underway as the cold front pushes off to the southeast. There is an outside chance for them to seed the lower cloud deck here in MI. Then for later Saturday into Saturday night a mid level trough sharpens up as it moves in from the west. Will feature the highest POPs there along with a potential for minor accumulations.
500 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 The cold front is about to push into the NW corner of our CWA with gusty Northerly winds. /issued 1131 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ An approaching cold front will allow for southwest winds up to 10 knots overnight.
626 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 A cold front was moving southward early this morning and will likely have moved through the rest of the CWA before sunrise. However, this will gradually transition to rain as the low levels warm thru the morning. Precip chances diminish fairly quickly during the afternoon hours as the trof passes to the east. With sly to swly flow at low levels on Sat and even more so on Sun, have trended twd the warmer guidance, especially on Sun. This front is expected to very slowly move south until the upper trof finally pushes it south of the CWA by Wed morning. For now, have trended twd a compromise for Tues, then twd cooler guidance for Wed.
1015 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 The deep, mean layer ridge remains parked over the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures are in the upper 70s, on their way to the lower 80s.
605 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 High pressure building into the region today with full sunshine but cool temps.
Winds initially more S or even SSW this morning with low level ridge axis further south.
06Z surface data has the cold front from northern Ohio into Oklahoma with high pressure over the Plains. Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest. First, light snow chances with warm frontal passage Saturday. warmer with highs into the 30s to around 40F south with flurries and chance of light snow, mostly north with any amounts likely less than an inch suggested until mid afternoon then clearing.
647 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 A cold front will continue to work through the region today.
A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today. Temperatures will be much cooler than the past two days, with highs only reaching into the upper teens to middle 20s. The snow showers/flurries will overspread the rest of the region Saturday morning, and continue into the afternoon as a cold front arrives. Lows tonight should range from the single digits northwest to the lower teens southeast.
517 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was entering far northern portions of the Big Country. It will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler today with temperatures falling into the 40s across the Big Country and in the 50s elsewhere by this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s north, to the low to mid 40s south.
Highs this afternoon will be cooler as they top out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. As warmer air advects in the snow will mix with and change over to rain. Snow will occur longest across the eastern Ozarks where temperatures will be cooler, and as a result there could be minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.
622 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 It will be drier but colder today with high temperatures this afternoon only reaching the lower to middle 30s.
624 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 It will be breezy and warm ahead of an approaching cold front today.
Strong winds that accompanied the passage of the cold front yesterday evening will likewise decrease this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes and a 1030 mb Canadian high slides southward. This high passes through during the afternoon and despite clearing skies, will keep highs in the mid-30s to near 40. The NAM is the more aggressive model in advecting moisture north and as a result suggests there could be some freezing drizzle across a good portion of northeast and east central KS. So I haven't included a mention of freezing drizzle, but this will need to be monitored by later shifts.
Very light freezing rain appears unlikely, but not out of the question if surface temps are colder than expected. Cold front moved through the Panhandles last night, temperatures will be much colder today with highs in the 40s across the Panhandles. By late tonight winds will be shifting back out of the south as warmer air returns to the Panhandles.
Kept tonight's lows in the 20s and 30s due to lingering clouds and warmer air aloft ahead of the trough and CAA.
344 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows warm front north and east of the area, with low pressure over central Alberta. Upper level analysis shows weakening ridge over the Rockies, with northwest flow persisting over the Northern Plains. Some higher amounts are likely across southern Campbell County, especially the higher elevations, so have issued a winter wx advisory for there.
After today, colder temperatures will overtake NE Montana as the previously strong western states ridge gives way to a series of low pressure systems from the west.
Lows in the low to mid 30s, coolest along and ne of I-74.
Accumulating snow is expected to overspread the region today into Saturday as a weather disturbance and cold front cross the area.
The cold pool in the low levels has also produced a decent temperature inversion between the surface and 750mb of around 1. The combination of this temperature invesion along with the dry air has resulted in no cloud formation in the low levels of the atmosphere today. This has pushed the freezing level up from 9600 to 11400 feet since the 12z sounding.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1024 mb ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. /issued 356 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ High pressure will gradually move east tonight. this evening Southerly winds and warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday as the high shifts over the Southeast Atlantic Coast.
The highest radar returns were found across the northwest, down through the Missouri River region. The eastward shift occurs as a weak secondary cold front from Saskatchewan slides south through western and central ND. BUFKIT soundings indicate a fairly saturated column, particularly in the lower levels though overall chances for snow look underwhelming. Along with a few flakes, freezing drizzle may be possible in the far southwest. Though guidance hints at the possibility of freezing drizzle, due to lack of nuclei, opted not to include freezing drizzle in the forecast due to overall confidence in precipitation being low. Cooler Canadian air will filter into state with the surface front, bringing cooler temperatures for Saturday.
As the upper level flow backs in the wake of the passing upper trough this morning, low to mid level warm advection will develop with a focused area of sfc-850 mb frontogenesis over the nrn forecast area.
TES High pressure will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southeast U. The southwest breeze will bring warmer air into the region tonight and Saturday. It's likely that temperatures will fall quickly this evening but steady off around midnight and hold in the low to mid 30s through daybreak. Carney The high amplitude pattern we've been stuck over the past several days is beginning to break down.
536 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 Weak low pressure to our north and south will provide clouds, and maybe a few snow showers or flurries tonight into early Saturday.
Areas of IFR conditions in -SN through 12Z as a cold front tracks eastward across the area. Latest models support previous forecast of snow to occur with tonight's cold front. That is, 1-3 inches in mountain areas, 1-2 inches in Oregon valleys and the lower Treasure Valley in Idaho, about 1 inch in the Upper Treasure Valley, and less than 1 inch in the western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie.
/issued 401 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/ Partial clearing this afternoon has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower/mid 50s over most of the area, though upper 40s are holding firm amid clouds and light rain over South Central LA.
A light southwest breeze tonight will help to keep temperatures a bit warmer than last night by a few degrees, but still below freezing in all areas ranging from 21 to 29.
A dry period will persist into the early part of the weekend as weak ridging aloft continues to break down as it transitions east across the Central Plains, quickly giving way to a weak zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains tonight. A westerly downslope flow will become more southwesterly tonight as a lee side trough continues to slowly strengthen near and along the Colorado border, in turn drawing warmer air into the area. Look for highs nearing the lower to mid 60s(F) Saturday afternoon with a few mid to upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas behind an advancing cold front.
340 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 The next Pacific trough will continue to move into the northern Great Basin this evening and into Saturday, allowing southwesterly flow to increase over our forecast area. Mid and high level clouds will gradually increase over the next 12 hours ahead of this system which will keep tonight's overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night.
High pressure will start building in tomorrow morning. Overall trend will be for cloudier conditions along the coast once winds shift more northeasterly behind the cold front early Saturday morning. SCEC winds are possible this evening as a cold front moves through the area waters, but should fall below 15 knots late tonight. High pressure will build in from the north over the next few days and persist into the next work week.
The eastward shift occurs as a weak secondary cold front from Saskatchewan slides south through western and central ND. BUFKIT soundings indicate a fairly saturated column, particularly in the lower levels though overall chances for snow look underwhelming. Along with a few flakes, freezing drizzle may be possible in the far southwest. Though guidance hints at the possibility of freezing drizzle, due to lack of nuclei, opted not to include freezing drizzle in the forecast due to overall confidence in precipitation being low. Cooler Canadian air will filter into state with the surface front, bringing cooler temperatures for Saturday.
Temps are mainly in the mid/upper 20s while dew pts crater into the lower 20s. The axis of an upper trough will quickly exit the area as an upper ridge builds northward in response to a fairly strong cut off low ejecting into southwest Texas. Meanwhile, high pressure build drifts southward and southerly surface flow will return across the region. This, along with mostly clear skies will make for a mild day across the TN Valley, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 50s. The upper ridge will strengthen during the overnight hours on Saturday, as the upper low shifts northeastward and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The upper low will weaken fairly rapidly as it continues its northeastward progression.
650 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 A weak upper level trough will approach tonight and cross the area Saturday morning.
Cloud cover over mainly the northern half of the area looks to dissipate overnight as the upper trough moves off to the east. Dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s as well, so lowered overnight lows slightly from the previous forecast and adjusted hourly temps accordingly.
Water vapor imagery and upper air plots showing upper low continues to spin over Mexico while Great Lakes upper trough swings well NE of the region keeping WSW flow aloft over the Gulf and state this afternoon-evening. Western upper low to slowly move eastward Saturday with ridging beginning to build from the N Carib over the state. At the surface the weak slow moving cold front continues to sag into the FL Big Bend and C Gulf this afternoon. Weak high pressure centered in the Southern Plains this afternoon to build into the region behind the front tonight into Saturday morning bringing slightly drier airmass to the area.
Upper air map analysis show complex trof axis aligned from the Great Lakes, southward over the Mississippi Valley, then southwest across the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma to the southern reaches of the Gulf of California. Surface cold front has settled into the central Gulf with high pressure over Texas beginning to expand eastward into the deep south. During the day Saturday, the southwest portion of the upper trof axis over the Gulf of California begins to open up and lift northeast. Even so, the high level flow remains from a southwest direction which keeps potential of clouds in place, mixing in with sun at times.
418 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 The next Pacific trough will continue to move into the northern Great Basin this evening and into Saturday, allowing southwesterly flow to increase over our forecast area. Mid and high level clouds will gradually increase over the next 12 hours ahead of this system which will keep tonight's overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night.
The latest Pacific cold front continues to move across the area late this afternoon. A mix of freezing rain, snow and sleet has been accompanying this front. The precip has largely ended over the Lower Columbia Basin zones, and have cancelled the winter weather advisory for those zones.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an mid-level trough moving onshore the Pacific Northwest and an ridge that's deamplifying extending from southern CA/Southwest US into the Northern Rockies. Of which a weak cold front will advance across the area late tonight-tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the short wave trough will continue to move southeastward while undergoing amplification. The upper trough should be positioned across the Northern Rockies to Baja California Saturday. While cooler air will sink in the area aloft at low-levels, near to slightly above seasonable normal highs are expected â coolest in the northeast Panhandle and northwest NEB. Upper level trough will continue to dig southwest and eventually split over the Desert Southwest and into far northern portions of Mexico.
An upper trof will move into the Great Basin Saturday afternoon.
834 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 An upper trough has brought snow showers to the region for tonight and early Saturday. No changes were needed for the eve update as snow shower coverage is in decline for most areas with passage of the mid level trough axis. This will be where the highest accumulations will reside, though 24 hour values are still expected to be under advisory level thresholds. High pressure will begin to build eastward for the latter half of the day, ending any snow showers as the wind shifts more wsw and drying takes place through the column.
Certainly confident to trend warmer with the current WAA set up today and temperatures not having an issue warming above guidance.