Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
405 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Tonight through Tomorrow: Looking at water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, the deeper moisture associated with a closed low over northern Mexico can be seen advecting northeastward over the Gulf Coast. For Fri-Sun, look for slow moderation each day with chilly nights with a few opportunities for freezing conditions. Lows Sun are mostly in the lower 30s, but conditions could be really good for rad cooling and I would not be surprised to see lows over achieve and readings end up colder.
Satellite imagery indicating increasing and thickening cloud cover advancing across the area associated with and in advance of eastward tracking low pressure currently over Mexico. Low aloft and associated surface trof is expected to bring increasing rains west to east late tonight, and showers likely to categorical encompassing the entire area Thursday as it advances east. A cold front will then sweep across the area late Thursday bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air that will hold into the new week.
Dry cold frontal boundary has reached the central mt chain with a light ely wind into the RGV. However, temperatures will cool a little bit Thursday as another backdoor cold front slides into eastern New Mexico later tonight.
1042 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight allowing a south to southwest flow of air to develop and bring slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. Latest guidance supports min temps ranging from the upper teens over the northern mountains, to the low and mid 20s elsewhere. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system developing off the Southeast Coast will expand northward but should remain along/east of I-95 corridor.
Areas of low VFR ceilings ongoing across SE OK may remain in place ahead of the advancing weak cold front.
Tomorrow will be another tranquil day with temperatures very similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. Some high clouds will move in towards the late afternoon/evening hours in response to a weak upper level jet streak that will move in ahead of the next trough. These clouds will likely keep overnight lows a bit warmer than seen Thursday morning. Mid to high level clouds still look to be hanging around and may cause these highs to be a 'bit' cooler than forecast but either way, high temps will still be running above average.
132 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Upper level low pressure area across southern Texas is currently producing some showers on the back side of this system along the U. As the upper low continues to move east the precipitation should be out of the forecast area by 14/12z.
102 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 VFR conditions early this morning will give way to MVFR cigs after 18Z as moisture continues to increase across the region ahead of a developing low pressure area over the Gulf. /issued 632 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019/ High pressure is settling in at the surface across the mid-atlantic. An area of low pressure is expected to slowly come together over the in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an upper- level trough in the next 24 hours.
Zonal flow aloft with some weak ridging will move off to the east, and another Midwest trough will develop and dig southward through the day today. Another cold front will move through, but models still keep us dry and dont drop temps too much.
1057 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 A cold front is currently located to the south and east. Cloud cover returns tomorrow with a weak low pressure system to our north. A surface warm front will shift winds to be more southwesterly, advecting warmer air that will allow for temperatures to rise into the 30s across much of the area. This warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will bring chances for more light snow, especially north of Highway 2. Fri will be cooler, owing to an earlier FROPA, followed by some WAA Fri night into Sat. This drop will be in connection with another cold front passing through, offering light amounts of snow or perhaps a wintry mix.
241 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend.
1145 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 The November 13-14 06 UTC TAF discussion follows: A cold front/northerly wind shift will gradually move through tonight. If cloud cover is more extensive then forecast, some areas may see temperatures held slightly cooler than that.
1050 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Areas of light freezing drizzle are expected to shift south and taper off through 3 AM. Have added freezing drizzle to the forecast to account for this activity. The mid-level wave exits east this evening with some breaks in cloud cover expected after midnight as ridging builds in from the Northern Plains. High pressure drops into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday as a cold front drops to along the MN/Canadian border. A weak mid-level trough and surface cold front drops through the area Thursday night but should remain dry.
Temperatures will reach into the mid 50s behind a cold front that pushed through earlier today. For Thursday, the trough will exit the region Thursday morning with increasing subsidence behind it. This will help to keep conditions dry with temperatures warming into mid-50s across the plains and 40s in the high country. High pressure aloft is progged over the CWA Thursday night and Friday.
For the daytime cold air advection from the north will continue as an area of high pressure moves in from Nebraska. Tonight as the high pressure continues to move south and east. Upper level ridge moves from the desert southwest into the southern plains on Friday. Highs should warm into the lower to mid 60s.
251 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 A cold front has pushed into northeast OK this morning and will move through the rest of the area by mid-morning. Afternoon temperatures should be about the same as yesterday or perhaps a degree or so cooler, with north winds persisting through the day.
This pattern will also support a westerly wind at the surface which should help enhance mixing a bit and bring in slightly warmer readings. Flat upper level ridging builds across the area as a trough of low pressure spreads across the Northern Rockies. Surface winds will increase from the southeast on Friday and help usher in warmer temperatures. Southerly flow increase on Friday night with increasing cloud cover ahead of the incoming trough. Raised lows closer to the 75th to 90th percentile and may need to go a little warmer as the model 925 mb temperatures are pretty mild as well. For now will aim for lows in the lower to mid 30s.
1249 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight allowing a south to southwest flow of air to develop and bring slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. Latest guidance supports min temps ranging from the upper teens over the northern mountains, to the low and mid 20s elsewhere. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system developing off the Southeast Coast will expand northward but should remain along/east of I-95 corridor.
139 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure departs today, but continued below normal temperatures expected. Temps will continue to moderate some today, with highs noticeably warmer than the past couple of days. However, some weak troughing may occur with H85 temps actually lowering a bit during the day.
We are watching for the possibility of a little freezing drizzle as the snow moves out this morning. The persistent upper trough funneling the arctic air into the area will get kicked out by Friday, and a nice upper ridge moves in for a few days.
1147 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Southerly winds today brought slightly warmer air into central Illinois, with afternoon highs approaching 30. A cold front will eventually progress across Illinois late tonight through Thursday morning.
Have seen a couple of reports of very light freezing drizzle on the back side of the precip across western Wisconsin.
Similar conditions are expected Thursday afternoon but should greatly improve Friday as a Pacific upper trough and surface cold front come in. New NAM shows Friday's cold front will be followed by a moderate west-east surface pressure gradient that should be strong enough to fully mix out any remaining stagnant air.
218 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 08Z water vapor imagery showed a broad upper trough over the plains and Great Lakes with upper ridging along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was slowly building south into the central plains with a weak frontal boundary across eastern OK and central MO. Clearing skies and light winds should allow for temps overnight to fall into the lower and middle 20s.
A cold front is currently located to the south and east. Cloud cover returns tomorrow with a weak low pressure system to our north. A surface warm front will shift winds to be more southwesterly, advecting warmer air that will allow for temperatures to rise into the 30s across much of the area. This warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will bring chances for more light snow, especially north of Highway 2. Fri will be cooler, owing to an earlier FROPA, followed by some WAA Fri night into Sat. This drop will be in connection with another cold front passing through, offering light amounts of snow or perhaps a wintry mix.
An amplifying trough across the central United States is expected to move into the region overnight tonight. Moisture will be drawn northward to the north of a surface warm front over the Gulf. Rain will gradually end from west to east on Friday, although some rain associated with the upper low may linger across the northern portions of the area through Friday night.
/issued 959 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ Mid and high level clouds had increased in coverage over the Midsouth this evening, downstream of a southern branch upper low over northern Mexico. /issued 251 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ Arctic high pressure continues to shift east this afternoon. The clouds are ahead of an upper trof that will be moving into the area on Thursday. The trof will deepen as it moves into the area forming an upper level low over North Mississippi by Thursday Night. Not a lot of moisture associated with the trof, but can't rule out some patchy light rain occurring across North Mississippi on Thursday.
On Thu, an upper level ridge will build over the area and dry weather will continue across southeast and south central CO. Temps in the high valleys on Thu are forecast to be similar to today, but the southeast plains should see cooler temps than today. A ridge of high pressure is expected to continue moving across the Rockies, bringing generally light winds and a healthy bump in temperatures to the plains. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 60s with a few low 70s possible across the plains, and mid to upper 50s in the high valleys.
Temperatures are expected to be just a couple degrees cooler and close to the going forecast. This will also result in warmer temperatures with highs closer to seasonal climo.
348 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will bring fair weather to NY and PA today and Friday.
Ongoing showers across the central portion of our CWA this morning, as an upper low spins over Mexico, and heads for South Texas. Meanwhile, another disturbance digs into the Plains and drags a cold front across South Central Texas today. Another chilly night tonight into friday morning, with lows in the low 30s for most of the area, with freezing temperatures again in the Hill Country. There is a slight warm up on a sunny Friday with temperatures increasing to the low 60s, but still below seasonal normals.
959 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Mid and high level clouds had increased in coverage over the Midsouth this evening, downstream of a southern branch upper low over northern Mexico. /issued 251 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ Arctic high pressure continues to shift east this afternoon. The clouds are ahead of an upper trof that will be moving into the area on Thursday. The trof will deepen as it moves into the area forming an upper level low over North Mississippi by Thursday Night. Not a lot of moisture associated with the trof, but can't rule out some patchy light rain occurring across North Mississippi on Thursday.
High pressure will build across the region through Friday bringing warmer than average temperatures across the state before a trough returns temperatures to near average this weekend with a few showers possible over northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. The large-scale pattern continues to keep a ridge over the Great Basin this evening with Utah under a mild northwesterly flow aloft.
Mid level vort lobe running thru the base of the trough is evident on afternoon WV imagery pushing thru Iowa. By tonight, mid level height rises commence later tonight as ridging builds to the west. As far as temperatures, operational GFS generally toward the higher end of its ensemble envelope, although closer to the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and overall guidance blend. Surface pressure gradient tightens for Friday with southerly flow ushering warmer temperatures back closer to their seasonal normals.
315 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Updated at 308 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2019 Mid to high level clouds are streaming into the Ohio Valley ahead of a weak cold front this morning. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest through most of day until a weak cold front moves through this evening. Tonight, skies should clear out and high pressure will try to nudge into the area from the west.
Condensation pressure deficit plots indicate that an area of stratus is likely to drop southward towards the area after midnight, and given the alignment of the 925:850 mb ridge axis this stratus may dip as far south as Huron, Sioux Falls, and Storm Lake. The cooler southeasterly surface fetch won't help our cause either, and have lowered temperatures where this stratus is likely to remain. Friday Night: Agree with previous forecaster that overnight lows Friday night should remain on the warmer side of the guidance cluster, especially given the broad increase in mid-lvl cloud cover.
1102 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight allowing a south to southwest flow of air to develop and bring slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. Latest guidance supports min temps ranging from the upper teens over the northern mountains, to the low and mid 20s elsewhere. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system developing off the Southeast Coast will expand northward but should remain along/east of I-95 corridor.
An area of high pressure at the surface currently centered over the Dakotas, will slide southeast into Missouri today. A cold front will slide across the northern Great Lakes this evening as a short wave trough moves across Ontario. No precipitation is expected to occur over the local area with the passage of the cold front, but there will be an increase in the clouds again.
152 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure departs today, but continued below normal temperatures expected. Temps will continue to moderate some today, with highs noticeably warmer than the past couple of days. However, some weak troughing may occur with H85 temps actually lowering a bit during the day.
Updated at 308 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2019 Mid to high level clouds are streaming into the Ohio Valley ahead of a weak cold front this morning. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest through most of day until a weak cold front moves through this evening. Tonight, skies should clear out and high pressure will try to nudge into the area from the west.
High pressure will build across the region through Friday maintaining warmer than normal temperatures.
439 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 We have issued a Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM for the Laramie Valley as dense freezing fog has been persisting there. A little warmer today as the flow aloft backs to northwest with increasing heights and thicknesses. Rather nice warming trend to end the workweek as the flow aloft backs to westerly, helping to induce a decent surface lee trough. Even more mild as the low and mid level gradients strengthen with downslope warming west winds helping to keep most low temperatures slightly above freezing.
533 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Scattered to broken low-level stratus continues to fill in behind the departing cold front, helping to moderate temperatures slightly despite ongoing CAA with northwest surface flow. Residual stratus deck will quickly move downstream through the morning as broad surface ridging advances into the area from the west. A brief late-week ridging pattern aloft will give way to a deepening upper trough by the late weekend.
A cold front will pass through the area today, with winds shifting to the north or northwest. Some clouds may accompany the front, but ceilings should remain in the low VFR category. /Issued 251 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ A cold front has pushed into northeast OK this morning and will move through the rest of the area by mid-morning. Afternoon temperatures should be about the same as yesterday or perhaps a degree or so cooler, with north winds persisting through the day.
532 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Cold front has pushed south of INK and MAF and will pass through PEQ and FST in the next few hours. /issued 132 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ Upper level low pressure area across southern Texas is currently producing some showers on the back side of this system along the U. As the upper low continues to move east the precipitation should be out of the forecast area by 14/12z.
Surface ridging will build in behind the cold front from yesterday evening.
As most of the region remains under the influence of high pressure at the surface, light winds and decent low level moisture have developed some patchy fog across much of western North Dakota. Fog development will likely spread east towards the highway 83 corridor over the next few hours, likely diminishing around 14z to 15z. 00z NAM BUFR soundings suggest the potential for some light drizzle and/or light freezing drizzle to develop sometime after midnight tonight. This will likely lead to a large area of low stratus along and east of the Missouri River Valley overnight, with chances of light drizzle and/or light freezing drizzle remaining in the forecast through most of the day on Friday as well. Due to model differences and the shallow moisture layer, elected to only introduce a slight chance of drizzle/freezing drizzle at this time.
441 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend.
422 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Dry northwest flow continued over eastern Utah and western Colorado on the eastern side of a persistent ridge of high pressure over the western U. The ridge migrates eastward during the day according to model data with the ridge axis reaching central Utah by 00Z. Cirrus carried over the top of the ridge will spread over the area during the afternoon. The ridge flattens and its axis pushes to just west of the Continental Divide by 12Z Friday. With the ridge to the east a weak zonal flow develops over the region on Friday bringing partly sunny skies and a small increase in afternoon temperatures for most locations.
Skies should be clear this evening, but clouds will increase overnight as a weak trough approaches.
751 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Updated at 308 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Mid to high level clouds are streaming into the Ohio Valley ahead of a weak cold front this morning. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest through most of day until a weak cold front moves through this evening. Tonight, skies should clear out and high pressure will try to nudge into the area from the west.
412 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2019 Dry northwest flow continued over eastern Utah and western Colorado on the eastern side of a persistent ridge of high pressure over the western U. The ridge migrates eastward during the day according to model data with the ridge axis reaching central Utah by 00Z. Cirrus carried over the top of the ridge will spread over the area during the afternoon. The ridge flattens and its axis pushes to just west of the Continental Divide by 12Z Friday. With the ridge to the east a weak zonal flow develops over the region on Friday bringing partly sunny skies and a small increase in afternoon temperatures for most locations.
/issued 415 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/ Current satellite shows mid and high level clouds over the area keeping our morning temperatures below freezing. Zonal flow aloft with some weak ridging will move off to the east, and another trough over the Plains will dig southward through the day today. A reinforcing cold front will move through with the trough, but models still keep most of the area dry, with a chance of light showers in our far southeast counties in northern Mississippi. High temperatures Friday will be a few degrees cooler than today as the trough develops into a upper closed low over the Mid-South Friday and moves southeast Friday evening.
While conditions may improve today for a time, most of the high resolution near term model guidance suggest that fog will once again occur tonight into Friday morning. Ensemble 500mb heights show upper ridging building across the western U.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s south to mid 70s north, although exact timing/duration of rain will lead to some variability in temps for some folks. High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast this morning will move east into the Atlantic through tonight as developing low pressure approaches from the Gulf. The area of low pressure will move east across the Florida peninsula tonight and then deepen as it moves east northeast into the Atlantic on Friday with a trailing cold front moving south through waters.
732 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure will move east of the state bringing milder temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder temperatures for the weekend.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a broad upper trough over the plains and Great Lakes with upper ridging along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was slowly building south into the central plains with a weak frontal boundary across eastern OK and central MO. Clearing skies and light winds should allow for temps overnight to fall into the lower and middle 20s.
916 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 High pressure departs today, but continued below normal temperatures expected. KRLX 88D indicates some light echoes over central and southeast OH early this morning, but a large dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere should preclude any precip from reaching the ground. Temps will continue to moderate some today, with highs noticeably warmer than the past couple of days. However, some weak troughing may occur with H85 temps actually lowering a bit during the day.
Fri-Fri night: Further height rises aloft, the onset of low- level southerly return flow on the eastern periphery of a broad lee cyclone, and mostly clear skies (aside from transient cirrus) will yield a noticeable warming trend, with highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest in eastern Colorado.
Some light returns have been noted on radar ovr far S AR, but lingering dry air in the low lvls has kept the precip fm reaching the ground ovr the FA. This bndry wl eventually pass thru AR later today as an assocd upr trof swings thru the region.
415 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 Current satellite shows mid and high level clouds over the area keeping our morning temperatures below freezing. Zonal flow aloft with some weak ridging will move off to the east, and another trough over the Plains will dig southward through the day today. A reinforcing cold front will move through with the trough, but models still keep most of the area dry, with a chance of light showers in our far southeast counties in northern Mississippi. High temperatures Friday will be a few degrees cooler than today as the trough develops into a upper closed low over the Mid-South Friday and moves southeast Friday evening.