Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AND GULF COAST STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE FAIRLY DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR SOUTH LOUISIANA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI THEN FLATTEN/WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. IN THE LOW LEVELS.
/ISSUED 842 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SKIES TO ALSO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW DEPARTS. /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY. UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
During the period, the upper low across eastern Texas will continue to pull away across the Gulf Coast region. The upper flow pattern will become more southwesterly aloft as a trough axis sharpens along the West Coast. A south breeze during the afternoon tomorrow from the south will be a bit stronger than today as the leeside trough deepens across eastern Colorado. The deep longwave trough across California early in the week will shift slowly east across the Rockies by mid-week.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. JET STREAK INTERACTION ALOFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN AT THE SFC TO CREATE SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID AS 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SUSTAINS THERMAL RIDGE.
A southern stream upper level low will make its way from the TX/LA Gulf coast will gradually work its way ne into the TN River Valley by Monday/Monday evening. H50 ridge will then build into the region on Tuesday. Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue Wed/Thu as deep swly flow develops ahead of trofing out over the swrn United States.
940 PM PST SUN NOV 1 2015 Our weather pattern will become cooler and showery Monday and Tuesday. Wet weather with slightly warmer temperatures will arrive for the end of the work week. Updates this evening include some minor rework of the gridded pops and QPF amounts to show lesser measurable shower activity over the lowlands between the Lee of the Cascade Crest and the higher terrain of the North Idaho Panhandle along with minor temperature adjustments.
258 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL RECORDS POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SO IT'LL BE SULTRY WITH ONLY THE CALENDAR SAYING THAT IT'S FALL. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LOWS/FRONTS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MID WEEK AS SOME CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED MOISTURE OCCURS NORTH OF A PASSING TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CARIB.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN TX/OK BORDER AREA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NAM 12 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE HIGH END. ALONG WITH UPPER TROF A 110 KT UPPER JET RACING ACROSS WI AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER TROF.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Last slug of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to move through the CWA through this afternoon as the stacked low pressure system spirals overhead. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory since surface temperatures remain near freezing.
A STRONG SYSTEM OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT TUESDAY.
APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY ALSO RESULT IN THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE APPROX 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/S VALUES GIVEN INCREASE IN WAA.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF WEST VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A BLEND WAS UTILIZED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BEFORE THE END OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
639 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. FOCUS IS ON DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY THIS AFTN AND INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SFC WAVE STACKED WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. SFC WAVE TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT PASSING EAST THRU ILN/S FA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE MID STATE AND WILL LIFT NORTH AND BE ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY 12Z THIS MORNING. INITIALLY MOST OF THE RAIN AFFECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT BUT AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING THE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY BACK IN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST AND BE ALIGNED FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH THE MEMPHIS AREA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 15Z IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. 100 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE UP THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS OUR REGION. WILL KEEP AN ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, AND DROP IT ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER 18Z. /ISSUED 626 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ AS UPPER LOW CONT TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL CONT TO SEE ASSOCIATED WINTRY PRECIP SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WELL. CLOSER TO THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. /ISSUED 319 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ LARGE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY KICK NORTHEAST TODAY.
410 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 The upper low was located over northeast Texas this morning at 09Z. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing today at the surface.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMP FIELDS FOR TODAY OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH OR ZONE 27 WITH WARMER VALUES ANTICIPATED NEAR MOAB. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.
353 AM PST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF OF SHOWERS.
ANY FORCING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES/LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL THE BROADER TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH LEAVING THE AREA LITTLE TO WORK WITH. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY COLD AND MOIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH BROAD COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CONTROLLING THE PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 325 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON NEW YEARS DAY. KEEPING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER PANHANDLE TODAY FROM MAKING ANY FURTHER PROGRESS TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA.
545 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A NEW COLD FRONT OCCLUDES THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
405 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 996MB PRESSURE TROF FROM NEAR TEXARKANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS AREA TO NORTHEAST. 4 AM MIDSOUTH TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BRING IN A QUIET AND SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN ARIZONA LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
The upper low was located over northeast Texas this morning at 09Z. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing today at the surface.
934 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
626 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 AS UPPER LOW CONT TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL CONT TO SEE ASSOCIATED WINTRY PRECIP SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WELL. CLOSER TO THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. /ISSUED 319 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ LARGE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY KICK NORTHEAST TODAY.
MORE KINEMATICALLY FORCED WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. A PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO CENTRAL IOWA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES HIGH AND STILL NEARLY 200 PERCENT ABOVE SEASON VALUES THROUGH THE EVENING. SFC WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF VERY RAPIDLY BY MID MORNING AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. TEMPERATURES AT AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO GROUND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW IS DRAMATICALLY COOLING THE COLUMN. WHERE THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING. AND ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD.
A trough of low pressure will continue to move inland across the western United States today, dragging weak disturbances across the Northern Rockies through the middle of the week. Snow accumulations will be fairly light as most of the moisture associated with the trough will be stretched along the west coast. While the higher terrain, including mountains passes, could receive 2 to 4 inches of new snow. A blocking high pressure pattern is forecast to develop late this week, bringing about the long anticipated arrival of widespread freezing fog and/or low stratus clouds.
THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR NOT ONLY HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ALSO MOUNTAIN WAVES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA. WHICH IS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TRI- CITIES. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TRYING TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO EXTREME NETN AND SWVA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT PREVENT THIS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 53 62 50 / 100 90 30 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 58 61 49 / 80 100 20 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 74 56 60 48 / 80 100 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 49 59 46 / 40 90 40 60 NC.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ROLL INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING FROM A DEEP TROF MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY. THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT FOR A CONTINUATION OF FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS WITH IT. /ISSUED 320 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ A BROAD AREA OF WEAK ASCENT IS PRESENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND AN EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FINALLY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS REGIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
OTHERWISE STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS RACES NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PROPAGATE N/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A SECONDARY WEAKER UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR WESTERN NEBRASKA) WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKER UPPER LOW).
523 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 THE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT IS MOVING EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING.
Upper level low pressure will rapidly move into the upper Midwest today. The next upper level trough is expected to approach from the west and traverse western Kansas Tuesday night.
405 AM MST MON DEC 28 2015 WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN.
VFR conditions will likely not last as freezing fog develops across the terminals overnight. Satl imagery shows the upper low continuing to lift northeast out of Northeast Texas. Flat ridging will bring dry weather to the CWA. with temps on Tuesday about 5-10 degrees warmer. A trof will pass over the High Plains on Tuesday but with the best moisture to the north expect conditions to remain dry.
A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the region by late week and into the weekend promoting strong valley inversions, fog and low clouds, but clearing skies in the mountains. As we transition into a convective pcpn regime accompanying the axis of the upper trough, it's likely we'll have to rely heavily on satellite/radar/obs to fcst any bands of snow that would produce an enhanced accumulation threat.
417 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 (Today and Tonight) The strong upper level low will move northeast and out of the area today, with improving weather the next 24 hours. especially on bridges and overpasses, due to accumulating snow and sleet and temperatures remaining below freezing.
PIVOTING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. THESE VALUES PUSH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 6 INCH OR HIGHER REPORTS OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA COUNTIES. WILL STILL CARRY THE LOW.
551 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW AND THE PATH THAT IT TAKES AS IT EJECTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE LOW WAS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN MO. BUT MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCE SO FAR THIS WINTER WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PAC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL US ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
Satl imagery shows the upper low continuing to lift northeast out of Northeast Texas. Flat ridging will bring dry weather to the CWA. with temps on Tuesday about 5-10 degrees warmer. A trof will pass over the High Plains on Tuesday but with the best moisture to the north expect conditions to remain dry.
NO HUGE CHANGES ALTHOUGH I WANTED TO PUSH POPS UP A BIT HIGHER IN THE NWRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY PRECIP THAT MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX THAT FORMS ACROSS NWRN AR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW IS DRAMATICALLY COOLING THE COLUMN. WHERE THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING. AND ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD.
412 AM MST MON DEC 28 2015 THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.
643 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
The low clouds will break up by mid afternoon. /issued 417 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The strong upper level low will move northeast and out of the area today, with improving weather the next 24 hours. especially on bridges and overpasses, due to accumulating snow and sleet and temperatures remaining below freezing.
TEMPS ARE RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION THAT IS ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM TO FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AN UPR TROF WL BE OVR THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE AND WL MOVE ACRS CO THRU THE DAY TUE AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WL BE LITTLE MSTR IN THE FLOW BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVR CO. KEEPING TEMPS COOL AND PROBABLY BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THU NIGHT. SUN AN UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVR THE AREA AND THUS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING AROUND AVERAGE.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MT. ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX. ANOTHER UPPER TROF IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA ARE WARMER. AS LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND EXITING MIDWEST SYSTEM.
/ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 996MB PRESSURE TROF FROM NEAR TEXARKANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS AREA TO NORTHEAST. 4 AM MIDSOUTH TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BRING IN A QUIET AND SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
BUT HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SITNS WITH TEMP PROFILES HAVING A DEEP NEAR FREEZING LAYER WHERE SNOWFLAKES TEND TO STICK TOGETHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND STALL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
BOTH THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
A low pressure system passing to our NW will bring rain to the region beginning tonight and continuing into Friday. The main slug of precip will occur tonight along a trough axis.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE LOW OFF LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST AND TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG HIGHWAY 20 THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN POTENTIAL SOME MINOR SLUSH ON THE ROADS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
338 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 Compact upper level low can be seen in satellite moving across northwest OK this afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure moves over the region by mid week which could allow for the development of strong valley inversions, but it will be short lived as another disturbance is expected by the end of the week. A mixture of low visibility and low ceilings in freezing fog, stratus, and/or light snow will impact the Northern Rockies airspace during the next 24 hours. Flight conditions are likely to fluctuate dramatically hour-to- hour due to snow, stratus, and freezing fog through 08/1800Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER SW NC AND NORTHEAST TN VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR IS SOMETIMES TRAPPED.
A VERY BRIEF DAY OF NO RAIN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST AROUND THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING.
319 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS NEAR THE LOW WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.
As the base of this upper trough moves over the area, higher winds are mixing down to the surface. As the previously mentioned upper trough moves northeastward, another upper trough will approach the area from the west. Some areas could see a changeover to snow as temperatures approach freezing tonight. The base of the upper trough will pass over the CWA on Friday so strong winds are again expected to mix down to the surface.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
TX SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION UNDERNEATH. UPPER TROUGH/ARCTIC BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL CANADA SINKS INTO MT/ND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW NORMAL ON THE SD PLAINS UNDER STRONG INVERSION AND NEAR NORMAL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS/NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS TX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.