Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Model soundings on BUFKIT look plenty dry in the lower levels to preclude significant cumulus development. The short wave is moving eastward along a fast flow of westerlies at the south end of a strong upper trough to the north in south central Canada.
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 High pressure moves offshore today and will continue to remain in control through Wednesday.
448 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A slowly encroaching cold front will help to hold high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday while still being able to reach into the 90s to 105. By Wednesday, the ridge returns in full force and that means it will be another sweltering day with high temperatures in the 101 to 109 range. With southwest winds, the high temperature at the base of Palo Duro Canyon could easily reach 110 with 115 not out of the question.
420 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Upper level low, or trough axis, that has been providing daily blow ups of convection, will stick around a while longer. In fact, latest computer model projections suggest that (instead of drifting off to the northeast, as previously forecast) this upper low/trough may stick around to some extent through most of the rest of the week.
An upper level low was located in northeast MT at 19Z. A warm front extended eastward from the low across southern MN. A ridge of high pressure was draped along the Canadian border at 19Z and has kept much of this area of the region rain free this afternoon. The Northland will initially be in warm and humid south-southwest flow, but the low's cold front will move through the Northland Wednesday, bringing cloud cover and low chances of showers.
Currently, embedded S/WV coupled with upper level forcing in the right entrance region of an upper level jet along with overrunning flow north/northeast of low pressure continues to result in a broad northwest to southeast orientated area of snow from northeastern Montana southeast through western ND and central and eastern SD.
As this feature nears, a tightening midlevel thermal gradient will lead to a region of strengthening frontogenesis by Saturday morning across the Lower Missouri Valley, with all indications suggesting this max will be oriented in a northwest to southeast fashion directly over the forecast area. As a result, a fair amount of time will be needed to saturate the lower atmospheric column for precipitation to reach the ground.
With the early March sun-angle, snow accumulation should be limited on roadways, but an additional inch or so may be possible especially where several of these bands pass over, and in the ridges, through the evening. Dry and cold conditions will prevail through the weekend as the broad upper trough remains situated of the eastern CONUS.
On Friday afternoon, strong high pressure was building south from Canada into the Mississippi Valley. As the night progresses, the incoming mid level moisture will interact with better lifting mechanisms entering the area from the northwest with an incoming short wave trough.
/issued 157 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ Cold front near the Pecos River will lift back n as a warm front tonight and as such low level mstr in form of low clouds, possibly some fog, will be favored to redevelop. NW flow aloft will amplify and as previously mentioned cold/warm front surges s again. A low level moisture axis as seen in theta-e ridge will set up in advance of the front and INVOF central PB. In turn it will be noticeably cooler Sun AM/PM.
418 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Weak back-door cold front pushing through interior East TX and Central LA as of this writing based on latest radar/satellite imagery and surface observations. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, with lows tonight ranging anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees cooler than readings last night.
Freezing levels and the max temp up through 500 mb layer does support light snow, with some sleet initially.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the region with mainly dry conditions expected into tonight except for the area mountains that could experience an isolated shower. Despite some patchy fog tonight the drier conditions will give way to a low pressure system that will spread mid and high level clouds to the region Saturday into Saturday night.
There were some gusty winds along and west of Interstate 25 this morning and early this afternoon as the surface cold front started to retreat eastward as a warm front. Do not expect much precipitation across the lower elevations west of the Laramie Range.
Upper ridging builds in for Saturday and should allow for at least a slight moderation of temperatures over the Plains, and this may help push the stationary boundary over our central counties out onto the adjacent Plains.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to dominate the flow over the southwest United States for the bulk of the next 7 days.
Northwest winds will continue to bring a cold airmass into the area into Saturday, as high pressure remains well to the northwest. Some uncertainty here with the lows tonight. Still have lows of 5 to 10 above zero in most of the area, with slightly warmer values in the southwest counties.
Arctic high pressure centered well up in northern Canada was ridging into the Midwest. The only portion of the dvn cwa that should saturate into the low levels closer to the clipper should be our far southwest counties. We will have chance pops in the sw cwa after midnight, with the highest pops late tonight. Basically, the southwest 2 tiers of counties may see total snow accumulations of a trace to up to an inch, with the highest amount in Scotland county, MO.
Freezing rain, sleet and snow ongoing around the northern Black Hills and adjacent plains as a WAA elevated warm nose is in place. However freezing fog/drizzle will likely linger over far western SD given moist easterly flow. Will leave current headlines as is and will defer adjustment to the night shift once a better handle on coverage of any freezing drizzle is established. In addition, moist upslope flow over the northern hills will likely support moderate freezing drizzle over the northern hills where temps remain below freezing.
/issued 331 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Currently, a cold front continues to drift south through the Heartland and Concho Valley areas. For the rest of the overnight, the cold front will lift back to the north, and another round of low clouds is expected to spread northward across the area. A cold front will approach late in the afternoon, and could set off a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, so have held on to slight chance to chance precipitation wording, but expect rain chances to hold off for most areas until the evening hours.
Daytime highs will be a little cooler tomorrow behind the front but temperatures will still be well above seasonal.
For Saturday night, still looking at cold front moving south across the area, with convection along the front. /issued 331 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Currently, a cold front continues to drift south through the Heartland and Concho Valley areas. For the rest of the overnight, the cold front will lift back to the north, and another round of low clouds is expected to spread northward across the area. A cold front will approach late in the afternoon, and could set off a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, so have held on to slight chance to chance precipitation wording, but expect rain chances to hold off for most areas until the evening hours.
945 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 A cold front will push offshore this evening followed by cooler high pressure into Saturday night.
1027 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Under mostly clear skies with a gentle to moderate north to northeast breeze, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s.
An area of low pressure over SE Wyoming will slowly track southeast of the region tonight through Saturday. Starting out Saturday night and persisting through Friday, the upper level steering flow is supposed to maintain an upper level ridge over the west coast/upper level trof over the east coast, leaving this cwa in some form of northwest flow aloft throughout the period.
A cold front continues to move south across the area this afternoon with skies also clearing from north to south. A cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area in the wake of the front. Lows tonight will fall into the low 40s inland to low 50s along the coast.
Tonight and Saturday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show arctic high pressure entrenched from central Canada into the central Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Arctic high pressure will continue to dominate our weather tonight and Saturday. After lake effect streamers retreat to the north, a slight veering of the low levels winds may cause these streamers to return southward late tonight into Saturday morning over northern WI. Highs on Saturday will be warmer that today and will range from the mid teens north to mid 20s south.
Overnight temperatures will be slightly cooler today in response to the frontal passage earlier, and clearing skies overnight.
820 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 At 00Z, the cold front stretched across northern FL roughly from Jacksonville to Apalachicola. The forecast remains on track for a cooler night, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. As of 17Z the cold front was draped across northern Alabama and Mississippi. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than last night, ranging from mid 40s inland to lower 50s at the coast.
618 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 A cold front will push offshore this evening followed by cooler high pressure into Saturday night.
Model soundings indicate a decrease in precipitable water values as the higher slug of moisture shifts northeast, though values still remain above normal locally.
557 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 The cold front has backdoored SW into the Wrn sections of E TX late this afternoon, and may continue to nudge SW this evening before stalling over Cntrl and SE TX later tonight. /issued 334 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ Cold front pushing swwd across Deep E TX this afternoon and is expected to just clear the region by late tonight.
The clouds have helped to slightly lower temperatures compared to yesterday, although we should still end up warmer than normal in most location.
857 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 A cold front is now across northern FL and expected to continue pushing southward through early Saturday morning. Current winds are west to northwest around 5-10 mph and will shift to the north then northeast by Saturday morning as strong high pressure ridge over the central and northern CONUS pushes to the east coast by Saturday.
That said, upslope areas look to remain at risk for the next several hours as the dendritic growth layer remains unstable, saturated, and near the ridgetops. While inversion heights lowering will likely mean accumulating snow shower activity will wane away from the terrain, another 1-3" of snow is not out of the question in the ridges. Dry and cold conditions will prevail through the weekend as the broad upper trough remains situated of the eastern CONUS.
924 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 A trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through Saturday.
Temperature guidance is trending upward, but most places should at least get down to freezing by morning. The other concern is the freezing of any lingering moisture on area roads later Saturday night as the entire area goes well into the 20s.
With calmer winds tonight, some fog along with the low clouds is possible early morning. A very weak short wave at 500mb will move over the region tomorrow and combined with a strong cold front may develop convection.
407 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 This afternoon there are a few spot showers associated with the washing out cold front and may last into early this evening.
A dry and cold night is expected tonight as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures will be on the chilly side with readings in the low to mid 30s. With temperatures expected to be at or below freezing over northern sections of the forecast area, a freeze warning is in effect for these areas. As temperatures drop back to near or below freezing, rain will change over to snow especially over northern sections of the forecast area.
But it still looks like all of the mid state will experience freezing temps tonight. Lows tonight will generally range from the upper 20s north to around freezing south.
933 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 High pressure building down from western Canada will push bitter cold air across the region through this weekend.
Surface analysis this evening places a cold front along the Gulf Coast. A dry and cold night is expected tonight as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures will be on the chilly side with readings in the low to mid 30s. With temperatures expected to be at or below freezing over northern sections of the forecast area, a freeze warning is in effect for these areas. As temperatures drop back to near or below freezing, rain will change over to snow especially over northern sections of the forecast area.
/issued 418 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ Weak back-door cold front pushing through interior East TX and Central LA as of this writing based on latest radar/satellite imagery and surface observations. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, with lows tonight ranging anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees cooler than readings last night.
Ongoing cold air advection will allow temperatures to fall into the middle 20s for locations northeast of Springfield and the lower to middle 30s towards the southwest. The first will be the cold airmass that will drop temperatures well below the freezing mark for multiple hours overnight tonight.
Forecast on track this evening with high pressure temporarily in place. Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 51 33 51 / 0 10 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 44 31 46 / 0 20 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 28 44 29 48 / 0 20 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 40 28 46 / 0 10 70 20 NC.
Winds shift towards the southwest ahead an approaching cold front. Model soundings indicate a decrease in precipitable water values as the higher slug of moisture shifts northeast, though values still remain above normal locally.
Dew points at the surface have been falling through the day across southwest MN and eastern SD so still a challenge in the low levels to get the snow to the surface.
Weak high pressure built into the region today and along with sunshine temperatures rose in the low to mid 60s (even some upper 60s) over the west side valleys this afternoon. This means mid to upper 40s along the coast, the lower 40s in the west side valleys and in the lower to mid 30s over the East Side and in northern California. An area of low pressure well offshore can be seen developing in the WV imagery out near 40 N and 140 W. A warm front will lift northwest of the waters late tonight into Saturday morning and the tail end of the trailing cold front will push toward the Oregon Coast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures Saturday will probably be a couple of degrees cooler than today, but still mild for this time of year.
Thermal profiles in the modifying polar airmass still show potential for a light wintry mix to the north of Highway 54/400, with possibly a brief band of light snow up by I-70 Saturday in association with the 700 mb trough axis.
which means there is a long wave trough parked over the eastern Pacific. this trough is currently far enough offshore to allow flat ridging over the west coast. the Pacific Northwest remains vulnerable to short waves ejecting from the offshore trough. stronger ridging will bring a return of dry and warmer weather that will last through the remainder of the weekend.
852 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Wx map shows cold front extending from KJAS to KOPL, or roughly the U. Kept 20% areawide through daybreak as the cold front will provide some focus for additional development. /issued 418 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ Weak back-door cold front pushing through interior East TX and Central LA as of this writing based on latest radar/satellite imagery and surface observations. Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, with lows tonight ranging anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees cooler than readings last night.
632 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 High pressure building down from western Canada will push bitter cold air across the region through this weekend.
Strong 1047 mb Canadian high pressure near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba province line, and ridging SSE into the eastern Plains at mid afternoon, will ridge into the MS river valley by Saturday. Brisk NNW winds 10-20 mph and gusts in the 20s this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 mph after sunset, and veer northerly tonight into Saturday as high pressure approaches IL. Even colder on Saturday with highs in the low to mid 30s, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies.
1017 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 High pressure will build out of the Great Lakes today in the wake of the departing storm system.
849 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 High pressure building down from western Canada will push bitter cold air across the region through this weekend.
That said, upslope areas look to remain at risk for the next several hours as the dendritic growth layer remains unstable, saturated, and near the ridgetops. While inversions heights lowering will likely mean accumulating snow shower activity will wane away from the terrain, another 1-3" of snow is not out of the question in the ridges. Dry and cold conditions will prevail through the weekend as the broad upper trough remains situated of the eastern CONUS.
However, around the Brainerd Lakes region, increased mid and high cloud cover should keep temperatures warmer, closer to zero or just below overnight. Saturday to be a little warmer than today as the airmass slowly modifies in our March sunshine.
917 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 A cold front was draped just along the northern borders of Houston and Trinity counties at 9:00 PM. An area of rainfall over the lower Texas coastal areas associated with an upper level low pressure trough is then still expected to slowly move northward overnight tonight. Ceilings will be slow to improve tomorrow as weak upper low over the lower Texas coast will slowly move across the area. Beyond 00Z SUN look for cold front to approach the area.
Highs will range from the lower 30s eastern portions of north central Nebraska to mid 50s far southwest Nebraska. The overall synoptic pattern through Friday is characterized by northwest flow for western Nebraska as an Intermountain West ridge gradually builds.
Latest HRRR hints at a few showers lifting northeast along warm front over the Laurels into the central ridges 06-12z but overall kept POPs pretty low. The only other thing to consider would be possible heat advisory for the 4 zones in the Lower Susq. This may generate another round of showers/storms later tonight moving sw-ne along with or over the warm front. The warm front should be up to the northern part of the CWA by morning - but may be dragging along in the eastern section. Temps will get back into the lower 90s in some of the southern valleys. Cold front doesn't push in until after the day.
249 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Not much change in the overall wx pattern, as a cdfnt continues to extend from ern TX thru the Great Lakes and an upper ridge still covers much of the sern US. Otherwise temps across the cwa at 230 am were mainly in the low/mid 70s under mostly clr skies. On Wednesday the Atlantic upper ridge begins to weaken allowing the previously mentioned cdfnt to sag towards the cwa.
405 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An upper ridge will build in over the Panhandles today through Wednesday which will allow for the dry conditions to continue.
A cold front poised to our west will advance eastward toward evening.
1022 PM PDT Mon Aug 15 2016 High pressure will result in warm and dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
202 AM PDT Tue Aug 16 2016 High pressure will result in warm and dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
235 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A low pressure system will move over the region this week, bringing much needed rain to the area. Water vapor imagery depicting upper trof axis over the southern plains with decent low level flow ahead of it providing increased moisture flux into the region. dragging trailing cold front across the area and lead to diminishing chances for precip.
Upper trough currently across OK/AR will move east. Temps will be warmer today than yesterday given full insolation and either today or tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week.
348 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Persistent frontal boundary remains off to our west this morning with the ridge slightly more off shore in the Atlantic this morning. With less influence from the upper level ridge, convection should be more robust today as the frontal boundary slips just into western Kentucky.
245 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
Expect additional development along the coast, but more likely after midnight with development of coastal trough overnight.
The low clouds and patchy fog could impact ABY as well, although there is some uncertainty if they will reach that location before dissipating. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the low-mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
504 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Showers are expected today behind a low pressure that moved into Lower Michigan last night. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a weak cold front moves into the area. The upper level trof and associated upper level disturbance that merged over the area last night and produced over 8 inches of rain at South Bend was moving into lower Michigan. Additional showers are possible along with a rumble of thunder as a diffuse weak cold front moves southeast into northern Indiana this afternoon. An upper level trof will move into the region this weekend and should bring another round of showers and storms to the forecast area.
615 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will prevail through mid week as a Bermuda ridge keeps a hold of the area.
5 inches) of tropical moisture approaching the Lower Texas Coast as of this writing. Both the GFS and ECMWF have lowered pops for today with the NAM maintaining the higher numbers. With the ongoing pops in the Gulf and lingering rain in the far west will not alter the high pops for today.
A weak trough of low pressure moving through northwest North Dakota is expected to be the focus for thunderstorms. By Tuesday more stable air behind the trough as well as a building short wave ridge aloft will suppress convection and bring mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures into the 80s.
439 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Deep-layer ridge centered northeast of Florida will continue to be the dominant weather feature over the region. Easterly flow around the southwest side of this high pressure will occasionally bring moisture surges, increasing showers and thunderstorms as they pass.
632 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will remain centered well off the mid Atlantic and southeast coast through Wednesday.
Through early afternoon, look for brief low level ridging in the wake of the rather energetic system rolling across Lower Michigan. A bit warmer today, highs in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints holding steady in the mid 60s. Toward late afternoon, areas west of Madison could see some showers and thunderstorms associated with a mid level trough approaching. The mid level trough moves through tonight, bringing the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area.
There will be some additional rainfall this morning as the upper trough axis works through the Great Lakes region, but much lighter amounts are expected with this feature.
153 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Cold front in Illinois will move through the forecast area Wednesday, followed by another over the weekend. Cold front currently over Il slowly inches closer today, but will not cross cwa until Wednesday.