Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
650 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING MORE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH.
THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE FAVORING A DRIER OVERNIGHT THOUGH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FOR SE WV INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 140 W. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP WEST OF THE CASCADES.
HEAT INDICES ARE NEAR 100 AND INTO THE LOW 100S IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD.
1045 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE STRONG RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
STRONG HEATING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE HIGH BASED CU FIELD THAT FORMED AROUND 5K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15K FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEING PARKED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT. OVERALL COVERAGE IS MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE RIDGING ALOFT WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT LOWER.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL REACH OUR AREA AROUND 09Z. AS MRH LEVELS DROP AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 94 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 93 72 95 / 30 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 93 72 95 / 30 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 91 68 91 / 60 20 30 20.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT. THE MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY. WHICH WOULD HAVE ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
It will also remain mostly dry with a flat upper level ridge over the region.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE BAHAMA'S. AND WARM WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE WARMER VALUES IN THIS RANGE OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
LATEST HRRR FAVORS DRYING OVERNIGHT INTO THE SW CWA WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NW CWA ACROSS SE WV INTO THE HIGHLANDS.
AS OF THIS WRITING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OUTLINED FOR ABOUT I-64 NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY/ SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FA.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN/NORTHWEST IA. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS WAS KEEPING CONVECTION RELATIVELY QUIET FOR NOW WITH SQUELCHED CAPE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE KEEPING AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PASSES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE DAKOTAS.
MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG. A RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK BUT WENT LITTLE WARMER IN THE EXTENDED THAN MEX GUIDANCE. THERE REMAINS SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME SOME OF THAT CIN.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
1225 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE REMAINS OF BILL ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NJ COAST SUN MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL EXTEND COOLER COASTAL AIR A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS COMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE EAST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DISTINCT WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOCATION ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT SOME STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
715 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/ CURRENT IR AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR FILTERING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE.
1000 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THE FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE LOWER KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED LONG AGO. THERE WERE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE AREA.
859 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2015/ An inverted mid level trof axis is e of the CWFA while light NE mid level flow (12Z MAF sounding) is in place.
THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS THE AIR IS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTION WAS VERY ISOLATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WHILE CONVECTION WAS MORE FOCUSED AND INTENSE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DISTINCT WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOCATION ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT SOME STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING MORE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH.
DOWNSTREAM FROM A STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AND WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR AS A WEAK WAVE WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IN SPITE OF THIS, WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SPREADING OUT OF THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
WILL BE WATCHING THE LOWS THROUGH 1 AM TO SEE IF ANY RECORDS FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM WILL BE SET FOR TODAY.
THE MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WAS USHERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT MORNING.
NEXT WEAK PACIFIC TROF ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KHLN-TO-KLWT LINE SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF VCTS AT KHLN/KBZN/KLWT STARTING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW.
THE 00Z NAM KEEPS SE TEXAS UNDER THE WEAKNESS IN THE LEVEL RIDGE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 100S OUTSIDE THE STORMS. MAYBE AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WE SEE SOME BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES. IT WILL BE WARM OUT THERE (SUMMER OFFICIALLY KICKS OFF TOMORROW AT 11:38 AM CDT) WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS PUSHING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FARTHER WEST LIMITING AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW.
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THE 00Z NAM KEEPS SE TEXAS UNDER THE WEAKNESS IN THE LEVEL RIDGE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 100S OUTSIDE THE STORMS. MAYBE AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WE SEE SOME BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES. IT WILL BE WARM OUT THERE (SUMMER OFFICIALLY KICKS OFF TOMORROW AT 11:38 AM CDT) WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS PUSHING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FARTHER WEST LIMITING AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
THE ATTENDENT SFC FRONT EXTENDS FARTHER SW OF THE LOW INTO ERN/SE OK AND NCNTRL TX AS OF LATE MORNING.
In advance of the low and a trailing cold front that will move through the Ozarks today, areas of patchy light rain will occur. Temperatures will climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s today, but begin to fall slowly once the cold front moves through. Current short range models have the front along the highway 65 corridor by mid day and through the Ozarks by this evening. Tuesday will be on the cool side, and likely the coolest day this week, as an upper level trough lingers west of the area.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT TODAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND AND REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL TREND WARMER AND REMAIN DRY. A SURFACE LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS TONIGHT.
However, an increase in activity has been occurring near and northeast of the low, with drizzle finally beginning over the last hour or so in the far northern CWA extending southeast to Lincoln. That trend will continue through early evening as the low moves toward the Quad Cities, and have maintained likely PoP's across areas from about Canton-Danville northward through early evening. Further south, have bumped up PoP's somewhat across eastern Illinois for this evening as the cold front approaches and lift increases ahead of it. Pressure gradient remains rather tight through the night as the low moves further northeast into lower Michigan. Cloud development may be boosted by the arrival of an upper trough axis Tuesday afternoon, but no precipitation is expected.
THIS ADVECTION OF SATURATED CONDITIONS AROUND 850 MB LEVEL WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY. PER BMX SOUNDING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY. THIS MEANS IT SHOULD TAKE QUITE A BIT OF THE DAY FOR BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. VIA WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTH AL/WESTERN TN AND MISSOURI. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER MID 50S NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. DUE TO A COOLER START TO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 14Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
342 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
Low pressure along the central KS/OK border this hour will move northeast toward the KS/MO border by late morning and then into northern IL by evening.
AND WITH THE CWA ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE REGION. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
Cold front continues to make steady progress eastward with a broad region of trailing pressure rises aiding in gusty northwest winds which will persist through much of the afternoon. Updated forecast has adjusted for cloud cover and temp trends which will show steady to slowing falling trends behind the cold front and beneath the thicker cloud cover.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
225 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DO THINK TEMPS/DEWS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRYING OUT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL PRETTY FAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
1214 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET TODAY. /ISSUED 940 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET TODAY. /ISSUED 427 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH REGIONAL WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING AREA OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO OK. AS LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON GOING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FOR MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND INTO SAT.
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AM AS A FRAGMENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH A BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT H7-H8 FLOW OVERHEAD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST TONIGHT WITH NO SEEDS ALOFT UPSTREAM PER IR LOOP. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE CWA WITH SEASONABLE AND NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
BUT WILL BEGIN TO HAVE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. TRAILING SWD FM THE LOW. DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FNT FOR LATER TNGT AND TUE.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATER TUE NIGHT & WED AS DRY LAYER BECOMES DEEPER AND APPROACHING H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS BEST MOISTURE/FOCUSING FURTHER EAST & SOUTHEAST. THE FOG THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
321 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AND THEN FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE COLDER CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT AND 700-300 MB LAYER QG FORCING WANES LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE/MORE DRIZZLE ALONG TRAILING/WEAK COLD FRONT. MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION UNDER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY. RAW/BREEZY/CLOUDY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
1246 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY LATE TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AND CROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS GOING TO LEAD TO THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH 06Z AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SURGES IN.
330 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REEVALUATE LATER TODAY.
Stratus making a slow approach into the forecast area from the NW, bringing reduced visibility in haze along with below freezing temperatures. Only weak returns noted on radar just NW of the area, but with sub freezing temps still anticipate some slick spots on the roadways as the stratus and haze work their way southeast this morning. Temperatures by noon expected to be at or above freezing across most of the area and will carry a slight chance for a rain or snow north to a rain chance east. As the upper trough exits eastward Tuesday, dry northwest flow takes over much of the week.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. /ISSUED 327 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016/ COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY AND APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. OR OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND WILL FLATTEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRI. STRONG WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FLATTENS. WHICH ALSO SHOWS A COLD FRONT DROPPING N-S ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MAJOR SNOW EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN THROUGH MON.
1133 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
HAVE HAD A REPORT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN DEVILS LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN -10.
1229 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016 LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK LIFT IS CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FORM IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM REPORTS INDICATED THE TRANSITORY NORTH SOUTH BAND OF SNOW SOUTH OF THEDFORD HAS CAUSED ROADS TO CROSS THE FREEZING MARK AND BECOME ICE COVERED WITH SNOW ON TOP. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED.
1011 AM PST MON JAN 25 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight, bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog.
1243 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 COLD FRONT AND RAIN PUSHES EAST TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
The surface cold front has pushed through most of the area, and was responsible for the low level lift that supported the drizzle this afternoon. A few locations have temperatures at freezing along with the drizzle, but do not expect much icing at this point. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s. These cooler temperatures should be driven by the cold air advection behind the front. High temperatures tomorrow will only manage the low to upper 30s with the coldest temperatures in far northeast KS.
357 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT RAIN.
WITH A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF OVERHEAD.
THIS ADVECTION OF SATURATED CONDITIONS AROUND 850 MB LEVEL WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY. PER BMX SOUNDING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY. THIS MEANS IT SHOULD TAKE QUITE A BIT OF THE DAY FOR BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. VIA WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTH AL/WESTERN TN AND MISSOURI. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER MID 50S NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. DUE TO A COOLER START TO THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA.