Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
918 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015 A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE OF THE HIGH VARIETY. /ISSUED 340 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES AND RED RIVER VALLEY. HELPING MAINTAIN A COOLER AND DRIER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME LOCAL 88DS SHOW A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS LAGGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
710 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER CLOSED LOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WEAK TROUGH FROM GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITHE A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA.
535 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 125 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PRESSED SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY W-SW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH BEING REPORTED. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC-8H WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS HIGH IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE M50S-L60S THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE HIGH. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS TO EMPHASIZE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
836 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015 Deep low pressure centered north of the eastern Great Lakes continues to provide a substantial pressure gradient over central IL this evening resulting in west winds 10 to 20 mph which should countinue through the night. Sub-freezing conditions appear likely Friday night under clear skies and light winds. Sunny conditions will prevail the remainder of the weekend, under high pressure.
835 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
728 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 BRISK CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW TODAYS COLD FRONT AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS ERN CANADA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER COLORADO. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
604 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
635 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE RIDGES AS OF 19Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENING. MAINLY NORTHERN TIER AND RIDGES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS A COOL FRONT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARD MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
817 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THOSE AREAS FRIDAY WITH LOWER AND THICKER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
526 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILD OVER THE AREA. 16 BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 08 /ISSUED 522 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TRIMMED THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN IN AREA TO ACCOMMODATE THE LOWER WINDS. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BROADEN AND BECOME MILDLY ANTICYCLONIC AS AN H500 RIDGE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
1011 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the short term period dry and cooler.
MIXED W-NW WINDS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING IN OUR CWA WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A STABLE GAP WIND REGIME THIS EVENING AS LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 555 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE VFR DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE PREVAILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK RIDGING SETS UP AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOPS OFF OF THE WESTERN US COAST.
1033 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 BRISK CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW TODAYS COLD FRONT AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS ERN CANADA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 38 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 53 28 51 / 0 0 0 0.
Fair weather high pressure was building into the nation's midsection this afternoon, which will keep the airmass dry for several days to come. Temperatures will respond tonight by falling into the low to mid 30s.
954 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
907 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 BRISK CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW TODAYS COLD FRONT AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS ERN CANADA.
LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS WARMER LAKE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
1018 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A BRISK NORTH WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST. /ISSUED 358 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015/ AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FL AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TIGHT LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEEP CYCLONE LIFTING OVER LAKE HURON WILL ENSURE MORE WINDY/RAW CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING PV ANOMALY/SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY. CLOUD BEARING FLOW VEERING MORE WNW AND MOISTURE DEPTH/LAPSE RATES INCREASING JUST ALONG/BEHIND SECONDARY TROUGH SHOULD FORCE SCT SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON INTO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES (CLOSER TO PV TRACK). FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING STILL HANGING BACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH A MOISTURE STARVED NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 13/24Z WITH GENERALLY NWLY SFC WINDS OF 5-10KTS EXPECTED.
1018 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
634 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED INLAND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TODAY OVER NE FL AS STACKED RIDGING BUILDS OVER SE GA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY PROGRESSION INLAND TOWARD A CONVERGENT ZONE DOWN THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF 30-40% ALONG AND WEST OF A WAYCROSS TO OCALA LINE. PRECIP WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND.
500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS U. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH 500 MB RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER MN/IA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
648 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
348 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO CA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW. WEAK RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM SERN AZ INTO SERN UT. WHILE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF THE SERN COAST OF THE US WITH A BROAD WSW TO ENE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 30+ KTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
349 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ME WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRINGING A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN ME WITH LOW PRESSURE SITTING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER. MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE DRIER AND MIXING DEEPER VIA STRONG DIURNAL HEATING THU AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THU NIGHT. -VINCENT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY.
333 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY.
638 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE EAST. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
425 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OUT OF MEXICO AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE WEST NUDGES A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSING NEW MEXICO TONIGHT FARTHER EAST.
CELLS WERE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND 10 MPH DUE TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. LATE TONIGHT THE LOW CENTER WILL LIFT TO OVER NV THEN BY FRIDAY EVENING BE NEAR THE N NV BORDER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WIDESPREAD ASCENT WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW. TOMORROW THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS NV.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA.
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LVL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT TODAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF MOVES INTO MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LOW/TUTT LOW MOVES INTO MEXICO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LOCALLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH 75 TO 80 SOUTH.
417 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 UPPER HIGH OVER THE EAST PAC NEAR THE BAHA AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND CENTER ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL BE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. SINCE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WITH BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE NORTH GULF AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING ALOFT.
THE UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE WEST RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
645 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST. BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOWING IS INCREASING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START INCREASING MOISTURE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO BECOME DEFINED TO OUR SOUTH.
Convection persisted over the Davis Mountains this evening, in addition to other portions of the higher terrain. In this flow a new surface lee trough will quickly become established near the mountains.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW IS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE THE AXIS OF A LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PINCH OFF THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
141 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEEDED TO LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE. TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SKEW NORTHWARD WHICH WOULD PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH. PREVENTING ACCESS TO THE HIGH MODEL FORECASTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS. AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL AND INTO EASTERN AR.
AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER TX AND GRADUALLY INCREASES. AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
Deep layer ridging will once again be in place across the region, but this will not be sufficient to suppress the development of scattered convection across the region once again this afternoon.
327 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE EAST. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTL WILL SPREAD DRIER. COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
354 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE. TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SKEW NORTHWARD WHICH WOULD PLACE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH. PREVENTING ACCESS TO THE HIGH MODEL FORECASTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS. AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AMID MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
140 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS SCT/BKN CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SLIP TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD DRIER. COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SSW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AND FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TUTT LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS MEANDERS SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD EASTERN CUBA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS.
433 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL AGAIN GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING. AND SPREADING TO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. SOME SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST WITH CONVECTION REACHING NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. I KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED REACHING THE LOWER 80S.
144 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ME WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRINGING A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN ME WITH LOW PRESSURE SITTING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING A TAD LOWER IN THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN TO PIERRE SD. MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT SLIDES NORTH INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO. UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST FOR SUN INTO MON. THE GFS DIGS THIS ENERGY QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA LEADING TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE ANTICIPATE TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN WEAKEN AS WELL AS SHIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
557 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015 (Today and Tonight) The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL CERTAINLY BE INHIBITED BY THE RIDGE. BUT A RIDGE WEAKNESS BEING FORECAST ABOVE H300 COMBINED WITH GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY GREATER DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH- CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THIS AREA INTO THE HIGH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CATEGORY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN THE WEST. BUT WITH SHEAR ON THE LOW SIDE. WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRENCE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.
410 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST. BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOWING IS INCREASING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START INCREASING MOISTURE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO BECOME DEFINED TO OUR SOUTH.
317 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL WI.
259 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015 SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST ELSEWHERE. /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ THE WARM FRONT IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE. /ISSUED 440 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE STATE AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN COOLER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.
225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ME WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRINGING A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VERMONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN ME WITH LOW PRESSURE SITTING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. BROAD UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.