Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of low pressure over Georgia is expected to sink south over the northeast Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. Deep south to southwest flow will develop across west central and southwest Florida on the east side of the developing area of low pressure.
An upper trough is making its way through across Southeast Idaho this morning with showers and thunderstorms developing overnight and forecast in two areas; from western Clark County, across Island Park and through to Driggs and Victor and the other currently associated with a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the Central Mountains forecast to track eastward through mid-morning. For the remainder of Southeast Idaho, expect a partly cloudy day and warmer temperatures rising into the 80s. It will be a warmer day than yesterday but still cooler than the temperatures that are to come. Be prepared for 90 degree air for the rest of the week under building high pressure.
As high pressure continues to move into the area, there will be very little in terms of relief over the next 48 hours. Our highs accompanied with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will allow Heat Index Values to creep above 100, possibly nearing just below the 105 range.
346 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 With an upper level trof moving through the region today, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area. Warmer air moves into the region on Wednesday, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the 80s for the next several days. With a slow moving upper level trof moving through the region today, expect a scattered showers/thunderstorms to continue to reside over the region into the afternoon hours. An upper level high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in a southwest to west flow aloft over our region.
328 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery loop showed a mid/upper level trough over the northern/central Great Plains. The SPC highlights a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of a line from Bill WY to Alliance NE, surrounded by a Marginal risk from Glenrock WY to Bridgeport NE.
This is reflected in ridgetop dew points which are now in the teens, and precipitable water values around Denver near half an inch, down from close to an inch yesterday morning. Light west winds at the surface have also helped push the low level moisture on the plains eastward. Warmer forecast temperatures today are on the higher end of guidance and look good. A cold front associated with a trough advancing through the northern Great Plains will move through Colorado tonight. Meanwhile, a ridge will develop aloft with mid to upper level temperatures increasing. The increase in stability combined with the subsidence due to the developing ridge, will limit the chance for showers and storms to the mountains and foothills south of I-70 Wednesday afternoon.
A warming trend will begin today as high pressure builds across the region.
Upper level ridge axis moves east of the area today with a weak wave expected to move across the region. Attendant cold front sweeps southward into Missouri. Although best forcing remains well north of the area, increasing westerlies will result in a slight uptick in deep layer shear along the cold front, in the order of 20 to 25 knots.
Dry slot will spread north/east this evening/tonight bringing a break in activity to all but the DVL basin which will see more steadier rain closer to the upper low. Position of the developing upper low in central/north central ND later today puts SE ND into the RRV in a favorable location for low topped supercells, if we can get some sfc heating. Rest of the week into the weekend will feature a westerly or west-northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge is over the the 4-corners region.
308 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A broad ridge will continue building across the southern half of area today as its center moves out of Texas and over New Mexico.
730 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 The weak upper low over GA should drift to the south through the period as the upper ridge builds to the east over our area. the low begins to strengthen in the northern Gulf.
520 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Current surface map places weak cold front/trof across western South Dakota, with reinforcing cold front just north of Montana. Water vapor imagery shows upper trof over western Montana into western Wyoming. Upper trof moves into the northern plains today, with mid level low cutting off over North Dakota late today. High pressure settles in across the area for Wednesday. Upper level ridge builds across the plains for the last half of the week. bringing warmer temperatures to the area. Gusty northwest winds will develop by early afternoon across northwest into parts of west central SD behind a passing cold front.
High pressure build into the region through the week.
For Wednesday, a short wave trough over the Dakotas quickly digs southeast into Iowa and Illinois. The associated cold front is expected to push through the entire forecast area by 21Z. And while the strongest upper level support and potential for severe weather remain to our northeast, CAPE values 2000-3000 J/kg, 30kts of shear, and low level forcing should be enough to produce showers and thunderstorms along the cold front.
Dry and warmer weather is expected today. A return of monsoonal moisture will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Wednesday over the higher terrain.
458 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery loop showed a mid/upper level trough over the northern/central Great Plains. The SPC highlights a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of a line from Bill WY to Alliance NE, surrounded by a Marginal risk from Glenrock WY to Bridgeport NE.
545 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Aviation Section Updated With an upper level trof moving through the region today, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area. Warmer air moves into the region on Wednesday, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the 80s for the next several days. With a slow moving upper level trof moving through the region today, expect a scattered showers/thunderstorms to continue to reside over the region into the afternoon hours. An upper level high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in a southwest to west flow aloft over our region.
High pressure will develop east of the 4-corners area of the country and spread its influence over the Great Basin region.
815 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Weak troughiness at mid levels continues over FL and the east half of the Gulf of Mexico through early this evening. Broad low pressure at the surface over southern AL/GA and Atlantic high pressure extending south of the Florida Keys will maintain a moisture deep southwesterly flow. conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate Wed as low pressure moves into the northeast Gulf and deepens.
334 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Warmer temperatures in the lower 90s today will turn briefly cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 80s as a cooler area of high pressure moves in behind a cold front that sweeps across the region this evening. There is a possibility of few thunderstorms tonight following the passage of the cold front, but none of them are expected to be severe at this time as the pattern begins to shift with high pressure expected to develop over the western U.
These showers will slowly diminish as the low pressure that brought us the thunderstorms yesterday, pushes further east into central Montana by mid morning. Temperatures will warm back to close to normal today, with highs approaching 80F degrees in some of the lower valleys of western Montanan and north-central Idaho. A few linger rain showers continue to wrap around the western edge of a departing low pressure system this morning, that will bring periods of light rain to KMSO, KBTM and KSMN through the early morning hours. As the low pushes east later this morning, most of the precipitation will be confined to the Continental Divide and continue into the afternoon.
/Today through Wednesday Night/ Weak upper ridge axis across the Mid MS River Valley to begin a shift wwd today, as an upper low moves across the High Plains. As the ridge reinforces itself over nrn NM late in the pd, a weak, back-door cold front may inch its way swd as the High Plains trof sweeps across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, area of low pressure in the nern Gulf of Mexico fcst to begin drifting wwd, gaining strength and organization through the short term.
302 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Current surface map places weak cold front/trof across western South Dakota, with reinforcing cold front just north of Montana. Water vapor imagery shows upper trof over western Montana into western Wyoming. Upper trof moves into the northern plains today, with mid level low cutting off over North Dakota late today. High pressure settles in across the area for Wednesday. Upper level ridge builds across the plains for the last half of the week. bringing warmer temperatures to the area.
Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Skies remain mostly sunny, but cooler temperatures and dewpoints will feel more comfortable.
The high pressure center will migrate NW of the region tomorrow and begin to strengthen with upper-level winds shifting from W to NE.
Deep layer ridging has established over the area and the H5 mid level ridge is expected to to rise to heights over 590dam later today across the region, helping to limit convection and much afternoon mixing. gov/heat Wednesday will be very similar, but we may have a greater chance of afternoon thunderstorms as the inverted trough shifts further west. Also, there is some indication of residual convection / vorticity that originates today over the Ozark Plateau pushes southeast into the weakening ridge position late Wed into Wed night.
The attendant cold front/wind shift will pass by during the day into evening. There is a chance heat indicies may even be higher than today with a pre-frontal thermal ridge and moisture-pooling ahead of the front. There will also be a chance for showers and thunderstorm with the cold front during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours.
Upper trough axis will shift across the area today. Freezing levels will be low, so the stronger storms will have a risk for hail this afternoon. Today will be cool with highs only in the lower to mid 70s, which is about 10 degrees below seasonal averages. A ridge builds in for tonight and Wednesday and this will provide a mostly dry forecast for that time period with warmer temperatures.
628 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Rain and thunderstorms this morning, another chance this afternoon and tonight, then cooler temperatures for a couple of days, are the primary highlights of the forecast. 850 temps drop 5-7C, pointing to highs only in the low to mid 80s Wednesday, and lows close to 60 Wednesday night.
After that fog burns off, high pressure to our northeast will give us at least one more dry day.
Sunshine should be the case for most of the area with highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s A complex of storm in Nebraska Tuesday night will help to push a cold front through most of southwest Kansas during the day on Wednesday which should knock temperatures back into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Today through tomorrow, the upper level trough over the Great Basin region will lift into the northern Plains allowing the weakened subtropical ridge to recenter itself over northern NM. By tomorrow afternoon the high will strengthen to about 596dm and as a result, thunderstorm activity will be limited and high temperatures will climb back to near the century mark both afternoons. Tomorrow, the high will become centered over the NM/Co border. During the day a surface cold front will move under the high from the north and settle somewhere near our last row of counties. Late in the evening anti-cyclonic flow around the upper high will allow low and mid level moisture to move over the area as a disturbance rounds the eastern portion of the high aloft.
606 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Warmer temperatures in the lower 90s today will turn briefly cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 80s as a cooler area of high pressure moves in behind a cold front that sweeps across the region this evening. There is a possibility of few thunderstorms tonight following the passage of the cold front, but none of them are expected to be severe at this time as the pattern begins to shift with high pressure expected to develop over the western U.
High center over S TX will be on the move to the north- northwest through tonight as it looks to set up shop between troughs off the Pac NW and one traversing the NRN Plains. Decided to not mention this low probability given warm H5 temps and building heights.
Surface analysis this morning places a weak quasi- stationary boundary bisecting the Lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Another very hot day is expected across the Mid-South today as temperatures rise into the lower to middle 90s.
These showers will slowly diminish as the low pressure that brought us the thunderstorms yesterday, pushes further east into central Montana by mid morning. Temperatures will warm back to close to normal today, with highs approaching 80F degrees in some of the lower valleys of western Montanan and north-central Idaho.
542 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build into Pennsylvania later today and Wednesday.
At 500 mb, the reflection of this trough continues from the Keys all the way down to near Jamaica. A richly moist air mass has pooled along the trough axis. The trough axis will slowly move west during the next 24 hours, exiting our western waters. The heart of the moisture pool near the trough axis will move in tandem, and large-scale lift will exit as well. However in the wake of the trough axis, deep southerly flow will develop over the Keys.
454 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery loop showed a mid/upper level trough over the northern/central Great Plains. The SPC highlights a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of a line from Bill WY to Alliance NE, surrounded by a Marginal risk from Glenrock WY to Bridgeport NE.
Rain chances will remain on the high side in the 60-70 percent range with scattered convective development by late morning into mid day and then numerous showers and storms developing this afternoon with locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches.
As high pressure aloft ridges across the Mississippi river valley, it will likely cap most convection. However, the models suggest a hint of moisture advecting on the west side of the ridge, close to the return flow southerlies. As this occurs, a cold front will be driven toward the PAH FA.
228 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure remains in control for warm and muggy conditions through Wednesday.
301 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, an upper-level ridge was in place across the Rio Grande and Big Bend area. Tomorrow, the heat will continue for much the region as the 594dam upper ridge shifts over the Panhandle/South Plains. A few chances for afternoon thunderstorms exist across the I-10 corridor with a small weakness on the southeast periphery of the ridge. For dewpoints, it appears they will remain in the low 70s for the eastern portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley, while western portions will see dewpoints in the mid 60s.
251 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A low-mid level trough currently extends from the eastern FL Panhandle down through the far eastern Gulf and into our western waters near the Dry Tortugas. At 500 mb, the reflection of this trough continues all the way down to near Jamaica. A richly moist air mass has pooled along the trough axis. The 12z KEY sounding, which was closer to the trough axis at sounding time, showed a Precipitable Water (PW) value of 2. The most widespread precip earlier today corresponded well with the trough axis and moisture pool. The trough axis will slowly move west during the next 24 hours, exiting our western waters and taking the heart of the moisture pool with it. In the wake of the trough axis, deep southerly flow will develop over the Keys for Wed and Thu.
318 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Temperatures are in the low to middle 90s across the Midsouth with dew points in the middle 70s. Highs will be near or maybe degree warmer than today. A weak cold front will move across the area tomorrow night.
Current surface map places weak cold front/trof across western South Dakota, with reinforcing cold front just north of Montana. Water vapor imagery shows upper trof over western Montana into western Wyoming. Upper trof moves into the northern plains today, with mid level low cutting off over North Dakota late today. High pressure settles in across the area for Wednesday. Upper level ridge builds across the plains for the last half of the week. bringing warmer temperatures to the area. Gusty northwest winds will develop by early afternoon across northwest into parts of west central SD behind a passing cold front.
1110 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Warmer temperatures in the lower 90s today will turn briefly cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 80s as a cooler area of high pressure moves in behind a cold front that sweeps across the region this evening. There is a possibility of few thunderstorms tonight following the passage of the cold front, but none of them are expected to be severe at this time as the pattern begins to shift with high pressure expected to develop over the western U.
110 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure building aloft will bring a warming trend through the weekend.
Another hot day Wed as the mid-level ridge will be centered to the nw. Across PB high temps Wed will probably be a degree or so cooler but SE NM/wrn PB/Rio Grande will probably be a degree or 2 warmer and high temps will be close to advisory levels again. Mid-level pattern does not show too much change Fri-Tue, possibly some weakening of the mid-level ridge Mon-Tue. Temp trends of MEXMOS cooler/ECMWF MOS hotter continue.
Further east, where the better moisture is located, lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. Looking at the bigger picture, an upper ridge that is providing the heat today will continue to amplify over the southern Rockies and Four Corners through late week.
The best chances look to be across the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area, where there's taller/cooler CU noted on visible/IR combo imagery. For tonight through tomorrow, a cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning. Much cooler dewpoints will fill into the area behind the front leading to a much more comfortable feel to temperatures.
/issued 815 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019/ Weak troughiness at mid levels continues over FL and the east half of the Gulf of Mexico through early this evening. Broad low pressure at the surface over southern AL/GA and Atlantic high pressure extending south of the Florida Keys will maintain a moisture deep southwesterly flow. conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate Wed as low pressure moves into the northeast Gulf and deepens.
In addition, there is an upper level low over South Texas and models show a weak speed max approaching the region this afternoon. With afternoon high temperatures in the mid/upper 90's and sfc dew points in the lower/middle 70's, afternoon heat index values will range between 105-110 degrees.
Hot and dry conditions will continue for the next few days as high pressure remains over the region.
920 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure building aloft will bring a warming trend through the weekend.
12z NAM has picked up on this feature the best this morning and it shows this axis moving very little as we go through the remainder of the day with upper level ridging noted well south of this feature across South Central Texas and upper ridging across the Lower Miss River Valley and Tennessee Valley.
229 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Upper troughing continues to dominate the weather today. As the trough rolls through the Dakotas and into MN on Wednesday, it will bring showers and thunderstorms as well as cooler temperatures. As the trough pushes east tonight and high pressure builds in, pressure rises will cause gusty winds, especially across north central SD where gusts to 45 mph are not out of the question. While still affected by the upper trough, highs will only rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday, about 10 degrees below average.
At the surface, a cold front has crossed the area with west to northwest winds and drier air working into the region. Despite the drier air and cold frontal passage, scattered thunderstorms are expected to move across western and north central Nebraska this evening. Storms will initiate across the higher terrain of WY this afternoon and then track east/southeast. Warmer and drier weather is expected the middle and end of the work week. The GEFS and ECMWF build upper level ridging into the four corners region and much of the Central and Southern Plains.
1136 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery loop showed a mid/upper level trough over the northern/central Great Plains. The SPC highlights a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of a line from Bill WY to Alliance NE, surrounded by a Marginal risk from Glenrock WY to Bridgeport NE.
-Mottice An upper low currently moving into Montana from the west will become vertically stacked with a surface over western North Dakota this morning. The upper low moves to the east this evening which will allow the rain to end from west to east. Upper level ridge and high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather on Wednesday.
This afternoon through Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms will continue over northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, as an upper level low continues to slowly move over southern MT.
254 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Delmarva Coast will drift east overnight, and create a southerly flow of slightly warmer and more humid air on Wednesday.
Quiet weather day for the area compared to the last few days as the trough axis exits the region and an upper level ridge builds over top.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to the lower 90s across much of the area with heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. An upper level trough will move across the northern Plains tonight then into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As the trough moves to the east a weak cold front will spread south into the area Wednesday evening and night. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the 100 to around 105 range.
Ridge of high pressure building into the region this afternoon with generally clear skies most areas except for afternoon build ups mainly over higher terrain. Temperatures warm to just above seasonal levels beginning Wednesday and lasting through the rest of the forecast period under influence of building high pressure. Temperatures are below any concern for heat related headlines, so believe that current social media messaging for the warmer temperatures is sufficient at this time.
A weak cold front will move into the forecast area during the evening, along with an upper level wave. Thunderstorms are expected to develop behind the cold front. Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal.
However, given mid-level troughing aloft, deep tropical moisture characterized by PWATS of 2. All eyes remain on a low pressure system, which has slid into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
Highs will be a few degrees above convective temperatures, in the lower 90s. Updated at 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 A potent upper level trough is forecast to drop southeast over the Ohio River Valley Wednesday night. A cold front also pushing in from the northwest should be centered over the forecast area around 12z Thu.
With an upper level trof moving through the region today, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area. Warmer air moves into the region on Wednesday, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the 80s for the next several days. With a slow moving upper level trof moving through the region today, expect a scattered showers/thunderstorms to continue to reside over the region into the afternoon hours. An upper level high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in a southwest to west flow aloft over our region.