Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before rain chances increase on Friday. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern, with showers and storms developing along the system's advancing cold front Friday afternoon. Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading to a drier and cooler Friday night.
So will have the highest pops in the far west and southwest today and tonight, decreasing to just slight chance or no pops across north central and central Nebraska. As far as temepratures for today, expecting highs to climb into the lower to mid 80s as fairly warm H850mb temperatures of 18 to 20C remain across the area.
1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016 High pressure will move offshore today. A warm front across the Carolinas will lift north tonight into Friday. A cold front will move into the region Friday night. High pressure will return to the Great Lakes and northeast for the weekend.
531 AM PDT THU JUN 30 2016 The persistent upper level ridge, responsible for the current warm conditions, begins to weaken today into this weekend, leading to increasing westerly winds and eventually moderating temperatures back to near normal temperatures.
/issued 258 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to mid 70s. High pressure was over the Ohio Valley this morning. A cold front will drop down from the plains states. The cold front will move slowly south tonight and will reach southern sections of Missouri by Friday morning. Temperatures will be a little warmer tonight with lows Friday morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s. On Friday, the cold front will continue to move slowly south and will remain hung up over extreme southern Missouri. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Friday with highs in the 90-95 degree range. The cold front will stall out just north of the forecast area by Friday night and remain nearly stationary for much of the holiday weekend.
906 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A moist and unstable air mass covering the forecast area this morning (via 12Z Raob data) combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze circulations will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms over the region during the day with the highest rain chances and coverage of storms expected over inland areas during the afternoon and evening hours as the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries move inland.
732 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east today and clouds will be on the increase by afternoon. Then some showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight as a cold front moves though. Only forecast issue in the near term is timing the POPs through with the cold front tonight.
730 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure through Thursday. A high pressure is in control at least for today. Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The approaching cold front looks to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
Even under clear skies this has only allowed temperatures to climb into the 73 to 78 degree range (about 5 degrees cooler than the past few weeks at this time) in most locations. KTW (Issued 553 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016) For 12Z TAFs: A large area of high pressure over the region will keep vfr conditions at both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period.
1039 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure extends SW to NE across the TN Valley to Central Appalachians today, with an inverted trough across N GA and western NC. As was the case yesterday, this trough will be the focus of showers and thunderstorm development this afternoon. With 850 mb temps in the 12Z OHX sounding warmer than yesterday, highs should be at least as high if not a few degrees higher than yesterday. GFS MOS seems on the low side.
Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes.
/issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A deep 500 mb trough over the eastern United States will remain extended into the western Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. Coupled with deep tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values near 2 inches, another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the BRO CWFA today, with streamer activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight. The shifting of the mid-level trough into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and 500 mb high pressure becoming centered over Texas, will usher in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Friday.
Not enough time to generate a great deal of instability nor to weaken surface based cap enough to warrant a great chance for storms, nor to set up any mentionable potential for severe storms as cold front pushes southward through the CWA through early afternoon. Otherwise, highs should be somewhat cooler than yesterday, mainly upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest in advance of the boundary through the Missouri valley. Friday sill in tap to be a very nice day as cool high pressure settles into the region. However, late Friday night a warm front does lift north towards Interstate 80, but no farther.
1251 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure through Thursday. A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or lightand variable winds. A high pressure is in control at least for today. Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The approaching cold front looks to diffuse out as it tries to cross CWA Friday into Friday night.
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain chances increase on Friday. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern, with showers and storms developing along the system's advancing cold front Friday afternoon. Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading to a drier and cooler Friday night.
Weak upper troughs will bring a slight chance of showers at times. A broad upper trough and the remnants of a weak front will bring a chance of rain to the area Friday.
1028 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will keep our weather mostly sunny today with highs near 80. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday as a cold front moves through the northeast.
A ridge of high pressure will remain in firm control of the weather of eastern Kentucky today and most of the day on Friday. Highs today and tomorrow are forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s in valleys to the lower 60s elsewhere.
The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west during the first part of the week is creeping back into our region.
Highs across the lower elevations should be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with upper 70s to mid 80s mountains.
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will develop southeastward across Texas over the next couple of days, bringing hot and dry weather to North and Central Texas through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough continues to generate convection over Arizona. As the ridge builds southeast, the trough will propagate anticyclonically around its western and northern periphery. Over the weekend, the ridge will flatten and elongate west to east from northern Mexico to Florida as flow becomes zonal across the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the region will maintain relatively quiet weather conditions for today before a more active pattern unfolds into the weekend, however, specific details on timing and placement of shower activity remains in question at this time. Maliawco Weather pattern over the northern Rockies and adjacent northern high plains region today will transition from a moderate ridge of high pressure to more of a zonal flow through the forecast period. This will all be driven by the low pressure center and its associated upper-level trough upstream over British Columbia.
741 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure is overhead today. A cold front will move east across the state on Friday followed by another high pressure area which will cover the region for most of the holiday weekend.
1033 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Marine High pressure will move east today and clouds will be on the increase by afternoon. Then some showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight as a cold front moves though. Only forecast issue in the near term is timing the POPs through with the cold front tonight.
843 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Low clouds continue to linger over the area in the wake of a cold front that passed through overnight. Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes.
702 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across the area tomorrow.
The cold front has moved through all but the far southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south around 15Z. Some clearing is expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Main branch of the westerlys shifts into the Ohio Valley as a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic builds into the Gulf of Mexico.
The fcst remains on track, with numerous showers and tstms expected to develop as a cold front moves through the region today and early tonight. The development will be aided by a strong s/w trof, which is expected to arrive in the late afternoon and early evening. Models and modified forecast soundings show CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 j/kg ahead of the front, and perhaps as high as 1700-1800 j/kg if dew points are able to reach the lower 60s. The storms will taper off from northwest to southeast during the evening, and should end shortly after midnight as the s/w trof shifts east. Canadian high pressure will arrive late tonight into Friday, and bring cooler than normal temperatures for the end of the work week.
1240 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Hydro High pressure will move east today and clouds will be on the increase by afternoon. Then some showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight as a cold front moves though. Only forecast issue in the near term is timing the POPs through with the cold front tonight.
1009 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure centered over the area today will shift to the east coast on Friday. This will allow a cold front to sag south across the area tomorrow.
Light southwest wind will result from high pressure settling into the Ohio valley while the next front moves into the northern Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to sink south and east today as the upper trough stretched from Ontario back through Saskatchewan swings down towards the area. This trough is expected to pivot across Michigan tonight, with a quick shot of deep layer forcing and narrow theta-e plume bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms late. Kept pops at high chance however until we can see effects of diurnal heating cycle upstream, although confidence is higher for south-central Lower Michigan closer to the upper wave and cooler air aloft. Negative showalter indices and models kicking out a few hundred j/kg of CAPE continue to support low thunder chances tonight and early Friday before showers/tstorms exit east with the cold front.
Winds are light from the southeast/south, with residual directional variability north of the lower and middle Keys.
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before rain chances increase on Friday. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern, with showers and storms developing along the system's advancing cold front Friday afternoon. Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading to a drier and cooler Friday night.
Then expect next round of storms closer to the passage of the cold front starting by early/mid afternoon north to early evening south. Additional development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along and ahead of a strong cold front dropping through the CWA this afternoon into early evening. 5 inches and lower freezing levels. Temperatures to top out similar to previous days in the upper 70s north to low 80s south, maybe be a bit warmer as the airmass in place is a little warmer.
5 inch, heavy downpours, and wind gusts of 35-50 mph) are likely; cannot rule out a severe storm or two, though current wind shear projections are on the low to marginal side for severe storms.
* Moderate for cig aob 5kft High pressure will continue to sink south and east today as the upper trough stretched from Ontario back through Saskatchewan swings down towards the area. This trough is expected to pivot across Michigan tonight, with a quick shot of deep layer forcing and narrow theta-e plume bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms late. Kept pops at high chance however until we can see effects of diurnal heating cycle upstream, although confidence is higher for south-central Lower Michigan closer to the upper wave and cooler air aloft. Negative showalter indices and models kicking out a few hundred j/kg of CAPE continue to support low thunder chances tonight and early Friday before showers/tstorms exit east with the cold front.
638 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
832 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BASED ON OB TRENDS. WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR A TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BASICALLY WENT ON THE SIDE OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
246 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 300 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/ A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA FALLING FROM NEAR 40 THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD.
916 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING KEEPING THEM SLIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BEGINNING EARLY FRI AND CONTINUING DURING DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
524 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SHARP WSW/ENE ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRAPED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO ERN CO. WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WRN NEB FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
947 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE THE OHIO VALLEY. OFFERING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
(500-200 MB) LATEST AVAILABLE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 800 PM DEPICT A BURGEONING COLD CORE MIDDLE AND UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 PM DETAIL A 1040 MB ANTICYCLONE PARKED OVER THE WASATCH RANGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MID AND UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
627 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. LAST OF THE FLURRIES SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES. AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SEEM TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
550 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
634 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
An upper level trough across eastern NM will move east across central TX Tonight and Friday. Weak isentropic lift at the 280K theta level across the eastern half of the CWA have kept the low stratus in place through the early afternoon hours.
WITH PERIODS OF -RA WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT ANY MIX THAT MAY FALL WILL NOT ACCUMULATE AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP IS INDICATING THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SW NM AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NEWRD ALTHOUGH SOME DRY SLOTTING IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY MORNING.
1002 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD.
BASICALLY WENT ON THE SIDE OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK N-S TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS UP TO 0. PRECIP SHOULD START AS SNOW BEFORE WARMING AIR COMES IN AND TRANSITIONS PRECIP TO A WINTRY MIX OR ALL RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE W-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL THEN LEAD TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS ON FRI. EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL AS MOST LOCATIONS WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON FRI AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ENOUGH TO HELP REDUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 44 36 46 / 90 100 70 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 42 34 43 / 40 100 90 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 35 42 34 44 / 20 100 90 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 31 43 34 41 / 0 100 90 70.
BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SORTA WAVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO WARRANT KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE WORDING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO NO CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION.
BECAUSE GROUND TEMPS ARE WARM AND OBS ARE SHOWING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S, NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS--OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES--FROM THIS ACTIVITY. /ISSUED 309 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/ AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE TEXAS COAST JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON THIS AFTERNOON.
The main impacts will be slick and hazardous roads, especially bridges and overpasses. (Friday night through Thursday) After a cool and wet couple of days, warmer and dry conditions will return to West Central Texas by the weekend, with mainly clear skies expected.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AS WE NOW AWAIT THE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF WHICH WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. PALESTINE LINE BUT IT WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS BUT AREAS WELL WEST-NORTH OF DFW MAY BRIEFLY HIT FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. SLOWING DOWN AS YOU APPROACH BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE STILL WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA. AS UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO TRANSITS EASTWARD. SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER TEXAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN A POSITIVELY TILTED MANNER WITH SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE ADVECTION STARTS IN ERNEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCED BACKING AT THE SURFACE IN THE VICINTIY OF THE WARM FRONT INCREASING 1KM HELICITY. CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
412 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015 AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTED A RATHER AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOMINATED THE GULF COAST REGION. WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED OUT FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A TROUGH BISECTED THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM COLORADO TO IDAHO. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
With a persistent northeast wind and thickening cloud cover in that area overnight, surface temperatures should remain just above freezing. Even if weak cold air advection aloft can switch the precip to light snow early in the evening, sfc temps should remain above freezing until the precip comes to an end before midnight.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SATURATION IS MUCH QUICKER. WITH THE SATURATION OF THE LOWEST LEVELS, MOST OF THE WET BULB PRECIP PROCESSES HAS DIMINISHED. ON THAT NOTE, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MESOSCALE VORTEX AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TN/MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS. DUE TO EARLIER RAIN/SLEET PRECIP, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, BUT DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE LOW 30S.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT FORECAST ABOUT 1 DEGREE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.