Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main vort lobe stays northeast of the area however as the cold front approaches this evening. Recent runs of the RAP and HRRR model do show some isolated activity from this evening through the early overnight hours which does support the low end pops in the forecast mainly north and east of a Ft Scott, KS to West Plains line. Tuesday looks dry and not quite as warm as today with high pressure sliding into the area from the northwest.
Temps tonight may drop to around 40 in the typical cooler locations, with otherwise low to mid 40s.
With warm ground and fairly uniform conditions, most likely just a patch or two of stratus around Greeley, Fort Collins and the Cheyenne ridge. Significant convection may wait until late in the afternoon and begin with Palmer Divide/Cheyenne Ridge/foothill convergence or outflow boundaries from early weak convection moving into better moisture on the plains. Southwest flow dominates in the upper levels with an upper level trough under the ridge upstream of Colorado over Utah.
With a cold front approaching the area late tonight, a stray shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out, but mainly bands of clouds are expected to traverse the region during the pre dawn hours. Despite the approaching cold front, valley locations should decouple and make a run at the crossover temperatures and fog should form late in the deepest valleys especially those in the east. Upstream, over the Great Lakes, a cold front will begin to slide south heading into tonight.
938 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Earlier this evening, scattered thunderstorms developed along a cold front in Kansas near I-70. Weak cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR late tonight with light and variable winds ahead of front. After another slightly cooler than average night again tonight.
Weak high pressure over the region will maintain dry weather conditions and warm inland temperatures. A persistent marine layer will keep temperatures cooler near the coast and result in overnight/early morning low clouds spreading inland into the valleys. A region-wide cooling trend is then expected late in the week as an upper level trough approaches the West Coast. Seasonably Warm and dry conditions will continue through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. By midweek temperatures will begin to trend cooler across the region as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
A weak upper low centered over Nevada will continue to move slowly east across northern Utah through Tuesday.
The cold front will continue to slowly trek southeast to the North Central Gulf Coast overnight. The slightly drier air in its wake will finally make it into the region overnight into Tuesday as high pressure continues to build south and deeper into the region.
The trough responsible for this activity will push east of the area during the overnight hours. Weak high pressure then edges in from the west late tonight into Tuesday. Another fast moving trough dives into the Great Lakes region from Ontario. Quiet weather is expected across the local area on Tuesday as this trough passes well east of the forecast area. Highs will be a little on the cool side for this time of year but comfortable, ranging from the lower 60s over northern Wisconsin to the upper 60s across northeast Iowa.
Weak cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR late tonight with light and variable winds ahead of front. After another slightly cooler than average night again tonight.
Convection moving into the area has weakened and additional convection is upstream over southern IL closer to the approaching cold front. Confidence is low that convection will survive into the region along the cold front, though some of recent HRRR runs bring some activity into the western counties. With a cold front approaching the area late tonight, a stray shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out, but mainly bands of clouds are expected to traverse the region during the pre dawn hours. Despite the approaching cold front, valley locations should decouple and make a run at the crossover temperatures and fog should form late in the deepest valleys especially those in the east. Upstream, over the Great Lakes, a cold front will begin to slide south heading into tonight.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a rex block pattern across the western conus with an upper high over northeast Washington state near Yakima, and a corresponding upper low pressure centered and spinning near Elko, Nevada. Mid to upper level ridging takes control tonight through Tuesday with a clear sky comfortable temperatures. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs Tuesday warming into the lower 80s west and 70s elsewhere.
Overpeck Scattered showers continue to develop north of Highway 59 this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front pushing southeast across northern Kansas.
The surface anticyclone will remain in place across the region through midday Tuesday, gradually shifting east during the afternoon hours. Mostly clear tonight, with overnight lows a few degrees warmer than they were this morning. Afternoon highs on Tuesday a few degrees warmer than today as well, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. (Tuesday night through Monday) Dry with a gradual warming trend this week as West Central Texas sits under an upper ridge. Highs will rise into the lower 90s.
754 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front moving into the area behind a cold front will result in lows in the lower to middle 50s.
A quiet afternoon will give way to overnight showers as the upper trough and another wave of energy rotates through the Great Lakes.
At the surface, high pressure has slowly been building south through the northern plains and a weak poorly defined frontal boundary is moving through the area. Lows look to be in the mid 50s again with surface ridging over the area. With good insolation through the day, think highs will be a little warmer then 1000-500 MB thicknesses would suggest and have highs around 80 for most area.
516 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through the short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the western CONUS. A weak backdoor front associated with this feature is helping to keep high temperatures down in the low 70s to low 80s for most areas today. Tuesday will continue mostly dry and warmer as ridge moves further east. with slightly cooler temperatures further east towards central South Dakota as surface front retreats to the east. Dew points should approach at least the low-50s which will help destabilize the area with day time heating.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the higher terrain and across the plains through the early evening hours. An upper level low currently located across the Great Basin will slowly track eastward into NW portions of Colorado by tomorrow afternoon.
Based on visible satellite imagery and placement of the low and mid level theta-e ridges, we expect isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to continue and develop early this evening along and near our southern mountains, including the Snowy, Sierra Madre and Southern Laramie Ranges.
A wave rotating around the base of a H5 trof centered over eastern Canada entered the area today. Cooler and dry air moving into the area with this wave is the main forecast concern in the short term. On Tuesday, temperatures will reach into the low to mid 70s.
Looks like we are heading towards 40s for overnight readings, with valley areas perhaps dipping into the low to mid 40s. The high moves east by Tuesday evening with south to southeast winds increasing.
606 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 A strong 547 dm 500 mb low over east central Ontario had a vigorous upper level trof over the western Great Lakes per water vapor loop. A surface cold front extended from western lower MI through central IL near I-72. Pattern will begin to shift this week with the trough moving to the east as a ridge builds in the west. This will bring much warmer air into the area for the last part of the week and into the weekend, and push any frontal system north away from the area. High pressure will ridge eastward into Illinois overnight and Tuesday which should keep winds lighter than today.
The 500 mb trough axis is located just offshore of the TX coastline and this is allowing a more stable flow to persist over the RGV through tomorrow. /issued 224 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The elongated 500MB low pressure along the TX Coast will continue to weaken as it gets cut off the main upper flow and mi level ridge builds across TX. Tue night low's will be pleasant once again into the low 70s.
High pressure continues to shift east into the northern Rockies.
617 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Weak convection has formed over portions of northeast Kansas along a cold front. Additional activity may develop along or just behind the cold front as it pushes south. A quiet period of weather will follow into the weekend as a large upper ridge gradually builds into the Plains. The coolest day of the week is expected on Tuesday as weak cold air advection moves in behind the cold front.
Current plan is to leave the flood watch in place through Tuesday as troughing remains in place with only slight drying in the 500 to 300 MB layer.
650 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Northwesterly flow aloft will allow a weak cold front to sink southward to near Interstate 70 toward early this evening, with the front then moving slowly southward through South-Central/Southeast KS overnight. Weak high pressure will build into the missouri valley Tuesday, allowing for light winds, slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 86 58 83 / 20 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 83 56 79 / 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 83 55 79 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 80 53 74 / 10 10 10 10.
12Z upper-air analysis shows that the ridge has remained in place but weakened by 1 to 2 decameters across the area along with a shift to a more northward direction. Temperatures will remain mild overnight again thanks to the cloud cover and highs Tuesday will be at or a degree or two above today as the ridge tries to build a bit further west through the day. Jordan Upper ridge axis will remain nearby for a few more days. Any convection will likely remain close to the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico but isold storms may survive to affect our west/northwest counties. This ridging is expected to hold with upper flow flattening somewhat as some weak energy undercuts the upper high.
Next several days are FCST to be warm and dry as the trof axis to the west continues to shear apart and low/mid level ridging builds into the ARKLATEX. The ridge will shift east of the region toward the end of the week and over the weekend, with an onshore/southeasterly flow resuming. Chance PoPs return for the SAT thru MON time period, with an inverted trof and its associated deeper MSTR possibly enhancing rain chances SAT into SUN. Light and somewhat variable winds will prevail the next few days as high pressure builds into the region, with a prevailing onshore flow developing toward the end of the week as the high shifts off to the east.
Previous Short Term Discussion: The upper ridge axis remains parked over the Northern and Canadian Rockies this afternoon, resulting in a dry northwest flow aloft over most of Montana, including Northeast Montana. The large long- wave trough over eastern Canada and CONUS, which had an influence on the resulting near normal temperatures today by having nudged the cool boundary up against the Front Range, will begin to move east. The main effect from this trough movement will be to allow the western ridge to push to cool boundary farther east through NEMONT.
858 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cooler weather is forecast through the middle of the week.
931 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening.
Weak high pressure prevails across the area with a less humid airmass than recent days. An upper trough pushing through the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the Mid-South after midnight.
Weak high pressure over the region will maintain dry weather conditions and warm inland temperatures. A persistent marine layer will keep temperatures cooler near the coast and result in overnight/early morning low clouds spreading inland into the valleys. A region-wide cooling trend is then expected late in the week as an upper level trough approaches the West Coast. This will result in dry and very warm temperatures over the inland hills/mountains while cooler temperatures persist near the coast. A region-wide cool down is expected late in the week as an upper level trough approaches the West Coast.
This will also allow the cooler and drier airmass now over the western great lake states and Northern plains to make its way into the southeast U. The second surge from the northern plains moves in Tuesday afternoon and evening behind a second dry cold front. This front will bring in a cooler airmass with temps expected Wed morning in the 50s across north GA and into the 60s for central. Long range models show good agreement with dry high pressure building over the region and dominating the forecast through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a cold front will cross the area from the northwest late tonight into Tuesday morning. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend. This deep moisture, combined with strong upper level divergence ahead of an approaching upper level trough and weak instability will result in the potential for heavy rainfall across parts of the area. A cold front pushes through the forecast area Tuesday evening but with limited moisture available precipitation is not expected.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide mostly dry and stable conditions across central Montana tonight through abut 21Z Tuesday.
514 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2016 A strong ridge of high pressure will prevail and bring mainly dry weather and much warmer than average temperatures to the central California interior through mid week. More seasonable temperatures are expected by the end of the week as a trough moves into the region.
Meanwhile, Lightning detection network spots convective strikes isolated along the cold front from central Lake Michigan to southern Colorado. Models take the cold front pretty much thru the PAH FA by 06z or shortly thereafter. Cooler/drier air works down the column as nwlys back to nlys with time. This will result in 70s tmrw for highs, with dew points dropping into at least the lower 50s, a splendid feel. This occurs underneath the broad effects of the long wave trof over the Ohio Valley, while at the surface, high pressure ridges into the Mississippi Valley.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated a strong area of low pressure situated just southeast of Hudson Bay and a ridge of high pressure that stretched from Central Canada southward to the Central Plains. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds are expected over north-central and central Wisconsin on Tuesday with max temperatures in the lower to middle 60s north-central, mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Cooler Canadian high pressure will reside over the western Great Lakes early in the period, with clear skies and light winds allowing temps to drop into the 30s over north central WI.
800 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
1049 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will slip southeast through the region overnight.
A strong 547 dm 500 mb low over east central Ontario had a vigorous upper level trof over the western Great Lakes per water vapor loop. A surface cold front extended from western lower MI through central IL near I-72. Pattern will begin to shift this week with the trough moving to the east as a ridge builds in the west. This will bring much warmer air into the area for the last part of the week and into the weekend, and push any frontal system north away from the area. High pressure will ridge eastward into Illinois overnight and Tuesday which should keep winds lighter than today.
Cold front will move through the area late tonight. Upper level trough is rather broad and the northwesterly flow will remain disturbance free.
With high pressure building in from the west and TS Colin off the NC coast.
High pressure over southern Saskatchewan will work into the eastern Dakotas overnight and bring a much needed decrease in wind tonight into Tuesday.
A strong 547 dm 500 mb low over east central Ontario had a vigorous upper level trof over the western Great Lakes per water vapor loop. A surface cold front extended from western lower MI through central IL near I-72. Pattern will begin to shift this week with the trough moving to the east as a ridge builds in the west. This will bring much warmer air into the area for the last part of the week and into the weekend, and push any frontal system north away from the area. Only Scattered VFR clouds expected through the TAF period as upper low over eastern Canada continue to progress away from Illinois and ridging begins to develop over the Midwest.
1117 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front over northeast Missouri/west central Illinois will continue moving south this evening. Once the front goes through expect dry weather and cooler temperatures for Tuesday.
749 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening.
The line was associated with an upper low centered in far Northeast Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain, although the convective parameters are not as impressive as today since the upper low will shift into Eastern Idaho.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 MB), latest IR imagery overlaid with available model streamline analysis depict the continuation of deep middle and upper level troughing extending from Minnesota down to Central Old Mexico. Well to the east of that, middle and upper ridging is aligned in the Western Atlantic from 35 North 65 West, southwest to Honduras. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. The system will continue to provide fresh to strong south to south southwest inflow into it within the lower to mid level confluent flow.
This low level jet out ahead of Colin is expected to maintain itself for the next several hours as the flow slowly veers more southwesterly after midnight. The latest GFS shows the high moisture band lingering into late week especially across the south portion of the peninsula.
/Issued 1024 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ Upper ridge of high pressure firmly in control over the region. resulting in a little warmer temperature for afternoon highs.
/issued 410 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ The upper air pattern over the CONUS has changed very little over the past day with a deep layer ridge holding strong from California. eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. Broad high level trof swinging across the Northeast US keeps the convective pattern more active well to our north. Considering this and the associated larger scale subsidence on the eastern flank of the upper ridge. /10 Broad ridging, both at the surface and aloft, will remain in place across the region Thursday as the main storm track stays well to our north.
TFJ Stacked surface and upper low near the northeast corner of Montana at 09z will move to the east this morning. upper ridge will build into Eastern Montana by afternoon and bring mostly clear skies to the forecast area. Expect warmer temperatures on Thursday as upper ridge axis moves through the forecast area. The ridge moves to the east Thursday Night and flow aloft turns to the southwest ahead of an upper low that moves inland across the Pacific NW.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period as an upper level ridge of high pressure slowly builds over the area.
952 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Low pressure was over central North Dakota. The northwest winds on the back side of the low were higher than forecast. Also low clouds moving south behind the low and have increased sky cover - and in turn adjusted temperatures a bit lower than forecast for today. The high res models seem to have a good handle on the current convection and support a chance of showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms through the day, particularly north and east. 500MB heights build during the day as upper ridge moves in from the west with dry conditions expected tonight.
The broad 595 decameter upper-level ridge over the southern US will continue to expand eastward today. As low-level thicknesses continue to gradually increase temperatures will continue their gradual warming trend and reach the low 90s. Dry conditions should continue on Thursday due to upper-level ridging, a dry air mass, and 700 mb temperatures around +12C.
An active weather day is ahead for Central Indiana as a warm front will surge across the state from the west. a quick moving cold front will pass across the area on Thursday morning.
620 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Ongoing storm activity expected to be winding down toward the start of the forecast period shortly after sunrise, as mid level wave riding east along warm front slides east of the forecast area.
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the Central Plains. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return, improving lift, and instability. Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
/issued 232 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ A hot and humid day is expected across the Mid-South as an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The ridge will suppress diurnal convection from developing. The ridge will begin to break down on Thursday allowing a back door cold front to approach from the northeast.
The main short wave trough was centered over far southern Saskatchewan at 07z, and it is forecast to move to near Grand Forks by 21z this afternoon. Moderate moisture transport into the the warm front which will be located from eastern IA into northern IL by afternoon. This will be especially true if the low and warm front track further to the south. Beyond that, ridging builds in to provide a pleasant end to the work week. But for the weekend, a strong closed circulation and upper trough moves eastward along the international border toward the dakotas.
1024 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Upper ridge of high pressure firmly in control over the region. resulting in a little warmer temperature for afternoon highs.
618 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Thunderstorms this morning, then the potential for development along cold front later today, as well as heat ahead of the front, are the primary concerns of the short range forecast. Trailing cold front is forecast to sweep southeast through our area today, reaching Interstate 80 by noon and exiting southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by 6 PM or so. Mid level heights will begin a gradual increase in the Plains on Thursday as upper trough swings into the Pacific Northwest, effectively pumping up ridge in the central part of the country.
Upper air plots this morning showed three upper high centers, one west of Los Angeles, one over NW New Mexico and another one over central Texas. Water vapor imagery showed an upper low west of the Baja Spur. Thus looking at isolated storms today, mainly over the higher terrain, east of a Point of Pines to Nogales line.
The amplitude of our record setting ridge will continue to decrease for the next few days as westerly flow develops over the northern Great Basin.