Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As this happens, weak lee cyclogenesis will occur in far southeastern CO/southwestern KS with a weak warm front extending north-northeast through western KS into north-central KS, and a dryline extending due south. Southerly surface flow will advect warm, moist air into southwest KS, allowing afternoon highs to reach into the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s east of the dryline. Previous concerns regarding convective coverage are waning as CAMs are consistently depicting thunderstorm development along the higher terrain in eastern CO and spreading east with time, eventually congealing into a forward propagating convective system.
348 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Quiet weather is expected today as we remain under the influence of surface ridging centered to our northeast.
/issued 935 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021/ Under the influence of surface and upper-level high pressure, stable conditions expected tonight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Weak 500 mb ridging will initially prevail over the RGV early in the short range period. However, A large 500 mb closed low will dig across the Desert SW today and Saturday. weak impulses will eject out east of this closed low moving over the RGV region through Fri and Sat. Meanwhile, deeper layer moisture advection will increase late Fri into Sat ahead of this closed low over the Desert SW region.
This will help the area cool into the lower 40s overnight. As warm and moist air is advected into the region, temperatures are expected to be closer to climatological normals Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Showers and thunderstorm activity then becomes more progressively confined to southwestern and central Montana through the weekend as high pressure aloft moves toward the region.
High pressure ridge will remain anchored over the northern Gulf through Saturday.
An upper low will swing into southern California on Saturday and this should result in the bulk of showers being over the mountains and southern border areas for the first part of the weekend.
Tonight: As the ridge continues to slide off to the east, expect increasing southerly flow into the area along with an increase in deeper moisture. The low-level dry air will likely take some time to saturate, so slowed the arrival of any rain chance until after midnight. Temperatures will likely be kept a bit cooler and RH values will be higher for Saturday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s for most of northeast Wisconsin, cooler along the lakeshore.
With daytime heating, threat of showers will expand to much of the higher terrain of northern Utah, but will remain isolated in nature.
We'll remain in an unsettled, but warmer pattern through the remainder of the forecast period. A closed low will move onshore in the Friday/Saturday timeframe and shift into the Desert Southwest over the weekend.
We'll still be slightly cooler than normal, but we are surely inching closer to normal temps each day. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks give hope to those wanting warmer temps in our area. For Friday night into Saturday morning, expect to see some ridge/valley temp splits in our eastern CWA under mostly clear skies. Transitional day on Saturday with a clear and crisp start, and afternoon temps warming into the lower 70s even in the face of increasing cloud cover.
The upper-levels place the Quad State in northwesterly flow between a trough to the east and a ridge over the mountain west.
413 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure remains centered over the region through Saturday.
1126 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather through Saturday.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 49 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 46 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 46 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 42 71 49 68 / 0 0 0 20 40.
A series of weak 500 mb short waves will move over the region from west to east while the low level returning southerly flow will start boosting up the dewpoints across the region. Expect slightly below normal temperatures to continue tonight and temperatures will be warmer Friday compared to today but will continue to be below normal for this time of year.
126 AM PDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure will continue to weaken today as a trough of low pressure develops over the Pacific Northwest.
This ridge is superimposed within a broad area of northwesterly flow aloft containing a strong polar jet. Temperatures are starting out rather chilly across portions of west TN and north MS with readings in the low/mid 40s. Temperatures today will warm into the low/mid 70s but we'll see another cool night with Saturday morning lows again in the mid 40s and lower 50s. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Saturday with highs of 75-80F.
412 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 Breezy north to northeast flow will setup today as high pressure over the eastern U. The breezy flow will persist through the weekend will a shift to northeast to east as the high moves out into the Atlantic Ocean.
This will be fleeting as a large area of high pressure wobbles from the Ohio Valley to the southeast states, and our winds become more southerly. Around the periphery of the high, there will be more clouds late tonight into Saturday in northern and western Arkansas. This feature will be in no hurry to get here given ridging to its east.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: Quiet weather is expected today as we remain under the influence of surface ridging centered to our northeast.
713 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure drifts across the Ohio valley while maintaining clear sky and light wind over SE MI during the morning. Otherwise expect just some thickening cirrus over the remainder of the terminal corridor as high pressure reaches OH/WV/PA toward sunrise Saturday. Upper level ridge will be slow to push east into the Eastern Great Lakes today, providing another mostly sunny day. 5 degrees warmer (-7. None-the-less, with the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge axis back across lake Michigan, looks unlikely showers will develop over southeast Michigan with limited cape (surface capes under 200 J/kg) indicated.
/issued 250 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021/ After this morning's clouds thin out high temps will be 5-10 degrees warmer than Thu and there is expected to be a secondary mid-level theta-e ridge axis in proximity to the mtns. Sun is also likely to be one of the warmer day of the forecast with low to mid 90s for highs in the wrn PB. If so this would tend to diminish convective concerns Tue PM? In wake of low Wed convective potential is minimized again possibly returning Thu with approach of a minor shrtwv trof. NBM high temp spreads are suggesting a mix of below to above normal high temps Tue onward and we have generally went with the cooler side.
Max POPs are in the 15-25% range over along the higher terrain from the Laurel Highlands southward into the mtns of MD/WV. 24hrMaxTChange trends +2-4F warmer than yesterday, but still a shade on the cool side of climo with highs in the mid 60s NW to low 70s SE.
940 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 A large area of high pressure will build from the Central Great Lakes to the eastern seaboard through Saturday. A ridge will extend westward to the Great Lakes while a warm front sets up across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer by the middle of the week as an upper level ridge build overhead. High pressure is centered near Chicago this morning with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies.
Temperatures today will be slightly warmer, but still slightly cooler than seasonal normal. Another cool night is in store tonight with lows in the lower 70s.
Some of the usual colder spots dipped into the lower 30s around sunrise. Max POPs are in the 15-25% range over along the higher terrain from the Laurel Highlands southward into the mtns of MD/WV. Warmer temps aloft should also help to limit coverage of shower activity. 24hrMaxTChange trends +2-4F warmer than yesterday, but still a shade on the cool side of climo with highs in the mid 60s NW to low 70s SE.
/28/ Quiet weather is expected today as we remain under the influence of surface ridging centered to our northeast.
Highs will pleasantly climb from their current place in the 50s up to the low to mid 70s with light northerly winds. Short range model guidance suggests that the northwest flow regime noted in the near term discussion will continue through Saturday night, as the mid-level trough tracks further eastward into the western North Atlantic and a ridge approaches the region from the Southern Plains. Mid/high-level cloud cover will begin to increase late Saturday afternoon, downstream from a mid-level vort max that nearly all global models indicate will top the ridge and dig southeastward across the Ozarks on Saturday afternoon.
Dry northwest flow aloft will persist across the region today, in the wake of a broad but low amplitude mid-level trough that will begin to shift slowly eastward from the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, light north to northeasterly flow will prevail as a ridge currently centered across IN builds eastward into the Upper OH Valley. Short range model guidance suggests that the northwest flow regime noted in the near term discussion will continue through Saturday night, as the mid-level trough tracks further eastward into the western North Atlantic and a ridge approaches the region from the Southern Plains. Mid/high-level cloud cover will begin to increase late Saturday afternoon, downstream from a mid-level vort max that nearly all global models indicate will top the ridge and dig southeastward across the Ozarks on Saturday afternoon.
829 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure remains centered over the region through Saturday.
The only changes needed for the post dawn update were to adjust POPs and confine already slgt numbers to the higher elevations where weak troughing may support isold convection this aftn. Otherwise, broad high pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight while a warmer atmospheric column and insolation support temperature moderation close the seasonal avgs(71F at PIT). A weak, positively tilted, ern CONUS, to wrn Atlantic longwave trough with ridging ovr the WRN CONUS is projected to maintain varying degrees of nw flow ovr the Upr OH into Saturday night. Temperature in this time frame wl be near the calculated- normals as the overall atmospheric columns warms/trough fills.
/issued 412 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021/ Breezy north to northeast flow will setup today as high pressure over the eastern U. The breezy flow will persist through the weekend will a shift to northeast to east as the high moves out into the Atlantic Ocean.
633 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will prevail across the region today into Saturday.
Northeast Kansas remains under northwest flow aloft this morning, between upper ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved far enough east to allow for southerly winds to pick up across the region, with modest moisture return as a result. As a result while a few additional showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm may redevelop across northeast and east- central Kansas, QPF and precipitation coverage should be on the lower side.
MaxT model spread is fairly small, although did trend toward the slightly warmer 75th percentile MaxT output.
616 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning satellite imagery shows patchy low clouds moving into the region, and with moist, southerly low level flow increasing, expect the low clouds to expand in coverage through the morning. Today, a weak upper level ridge will move across West Central Texas today, and a strong capping inversion will likely keep any storms from developing today and tonight. The 850 mb thermal ridge will warm significantly today, with 850 mb temperatures reaching 15-18 C (about 4-5 C warmer than yesterday), and so there should be pretty decent warming this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows tonight in the low 60s.
High pressure moves in tonight for calm winds and clear skies after 01Z or so. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 50 77 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 46 74 55 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 47 74 54 75 / 0 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 43 71 51 69 / 20 0 10 20 40.
451 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Dry northwest flow aloft will persist across the region today, in the wake of a broad but low amplitude mid-level trough that will begin to shift slowly eastward from the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, light north to northeasterly flow will prevail as a ridge currently centered across IN builds eastward into the Upper OH Valley. Short range model guidance suggests that the northwest flow regime noted in the near term discussion will continue through Saturday night, as the mid-level trough tracks further eastward into the western North Atlantic and a ridge approaches the region from the Southern Plains. Mid/high-level cloud cover will begin to increase late Saturday afternoon, downstream from a mid-level vort max that nearly all global models indicate will top the ridge and dig southeastward across the Ozarks on Saturday afternoon.
The exception being the high Uintas and possibly the Park Range where a short lived shower is possible.
Nighttime microphysics and water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level trough which extends from near the Yucatan Peninsula poleward to the Great Lakes Region. Ahead of this trough we remain under broad cyclonic flow with mid and high level clouds streaming in from the west and southwest.
959 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 Upper ridging was sliding eastward through the central Caribbean with a trough approaching from the central Gulf of Mexico. Ridges were noted east of the northern Bahamas and near/north of the Ohio Valley this morning. Concentrated isobars denoting a stronger pressure gradient associated with the northern ridge remained well north of the Keys, with northeast winds near 10 mph over the Keys, and running 12 to 14 knots along the Reef and outside Key West's Northwest Channel. This likely explains the maintenance of the high clouds, although some thinning has been noted over the Keys. High pressure will gradually build southward this evening and into the weekend.
522 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 Unsettled flow pattern will persist through most of the weekend with mean upper troughing over the region. Splitting upper trough will shift east Sat, with a closed low settling into the SW CONUS.
330 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 A upper trough extended from northern New England through the eastern CONUS. A broad low amplitude ridge dominated the western CONUS.
700 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 A large area of high pressure will build from the Central Great Lakes to the eastern seaboard through Saturday. A ridge will extend westward to the Great Lakes while a warm front sets up across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer by the middle of the week as an upper level ridge build overhead. High pressure is centered near Chicago this morning with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies.
/issued 358 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Weak 500 mb ridging will initially prevail over the RGV early in the short range period. However, A large 500 mb closed low will dig across the Desert SW today and Saturday. weak impulses will eject out east of this closed low moving over the RGV region through Fri and Sat. Meanwhile, deeper layer moisture advection will increase late Fri into Sat ahead of this closed low over the Desert SW region.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Mid-level troughing over the area will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the short term period. While many areas will see a lull in precipitation overnight into Saturday, the troughing pattern remaining in place over us warrants 20-30 POPS through Saturday.
VFR conditions are expected with high pressure building over the area. High pressure ridge will remain anchored over the northern Gulf through Saturday.
The upper trough quickly deepens just offshore, deepening into a closed upper low off of the northern California coast by late afternoon. The upper low then moves into central California by Saturday morning, shifting the activity south with it. The upper low continues to meander slowly to the southeast, with an upper ridge nudging into the region bringing a return of hot, dry weather with typical afternoon breezes.
649 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure remains centered over the region through Saturday.
613 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 A upper trough extended from northern New England through the eastern CONUS. A broad low amplitude ridge dominated the western CONUS.
Clearing clouds will allow temperatures to rise higher compared to yesterday, reaching the low to mid 80s.
Warmer than normal conditions are expected through much of the upcoming work week, though we should see some cooling with the increasing precipitation chances later in the week. This morning there is a high pressure centered over northern Illinois, with riding extending north over Michigan and the central Great Lakes. Low pressure developing over eastern Colorado with a trough axis extending up into the central Dakotas has produced a tightening pressure gradient over Minnesota, where winds are beginning to increase this morning.
High pressure building into the east coast is already helping to filter in some drier air that is apparent on the latest surface obs, satellite imagery and 12Z morning sounding. High pressure to the north will keep N-NE winds around 15 knots today, becoming more gusty to 15 to 20 knots overnight and continuing into the weekend.
226 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021 19z surface analysis had weak low over KABR with trough into southeast MT. Another trough located from south central MT into central CO. Between troughs 250-500J/kg SBCAPE has developed as well as 20-30kt effective bulk shear. Saturday, splitting upper trough develops into upper low over CA.
Tomorrow an upper level ridge axis currently to our west will move into the eastern Permian Basin allowing a weak upper disturbance to move across the CWA.
A weak upper trough on the northern periphery of the ridge will move across Kansas and Missouri during the day Saturday, but a lack of deep layer moisture and forcing for ascent will keep all of the precip out of the CWA. Most locations should warm into the lower 80s, which is very near climatological norms.
Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
1106 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 Unsettled flow pattern will persist through most of the weekend with mean upper troughing over the region. Splitting upper trough will shift east Sat, with a closed low settling into the SW CONUS.
352 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 The center of 1026 mb surface anticyclone is forecasted to migrate from central Indiana this afternoon to the Mid Atlantic region by midday Saturday.
250 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure centers over the area tonight into Saturday morning and then moves offshore during the day on Saturday.
Morning Update Latest surface analysis paints a high pressure region centered over the Ohio Valley. Highs will reach the low to mid- 70s this afternoon. This ridge is superimposed within a broad area of northwesterly flow aloft containing a strong polar jet. Temperatures are starting out rather chilly across portions of west TN and north MS with readings in the low/mid 40s. Temperatures today will warm into the low/mid 70s but we'll see another cool night with Saturday morning lows again in the mid 40s and lower 50s. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Saturday with highs of 75-80F.
246 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Currently, northwest flow is holding over the Middle Mississippi Valley, with weak troughing along the east coast and weak ridging across the western United States. This convection will lay out an outflow boundary that will serve as the focus for additional convection Saturday night as the low level jet ramps up over the CWA.
231 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Tranquil weather conditions in place across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, as a dome of high pressure continues to promote mostly clear, sunny, and dry weather. Despite dewpoints running a little bit higher, think we'll be well positioned for a good radiational cooling setup -- with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s once again. The center of the aforementioned ridge will slide from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, with our mean flow veering to a southeast to southerly direction this weekend. Strong subsidence from this ridge should continue to limit cloud cover during the day and keep rain chances at bay through the weekend.
147 PM PDT Fri May 14 2021 Trough of low pressure is beginning to move into the region today. This will strengthen onshore flows and allow a cooling trend for the entire area through this weekend as the low moves into the region.
An upper level ridge is resulting in northwesterly flow into the central Great Plains. A surface cold front will become stationary stretching across Kansas and into Colorado and will be the focal point of storm formation. Northwesterly flow will start to become more westerly as the ridge moves east.
Later on, with a surface warm front near our CWA southern border, and MCS is expected to develop and move east along or near the boundary and make it into our southern CWA by late tonight. MUCAPE will be limited, so we will depend on the moderate bulk shear and decent low-level convergence occurring just south or very near our southern border at the nose of the low-level jet. A warm front to the south in KS will be the focus for more thunderstorm activity tonight with the terminals far enough north to be largely unaffected, but could have some TS in the vicinity overnight.
Behind this, models show a feed of Gulf moisture at 850 mb curving up through the central plains to support additional showers above a weak warm front a the surface.
The better chance for notable rain and thunderstorms will arrive from the northwest early tomorrow morning, as a thunderstorm complex expected to develop this afternoon in the High Plains moves toward the area, weakening on its approach.
1203 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning satellite imagery shows patchy low clouds moving into the region, and with moist, southerly low level flow increasing, expect the low clouds to expand in coverage through the morning. Today, a weak upper level ridge will move across West Central Texas today, and a strong capping inversion will likely keep any storms from developing today and tonight. The 850 mb thermal ridge will warm significantly today, with 850 mb temperatures reaching 15-18 C (about 4-5 C warmer than yesterday), and so there should be pretty decent warming this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows tonight in the low 60s.
Mid-level troughing over the area will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the short term period. While many areas will see a lull in precipitation overnight into Saturday, the troughing pattern remaining in place over us warrants 20-30 POPS through Saturday.
106 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure remains centered over the region through Saturday.
The precipitation continues east/southeast into tonight with isolated to scattered showers continuing in the low level moisture axis over southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
1236 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 High pressure continues with mainly clear skies over the area. This will be fleeting as a large area of high pressure wobbles from the Ohio Valley to the southeast states, and our winds become more southerly. Around the periphery of the high, there will be more clouds late tonight into Saturday in northern and western Arkansas. This feature will be in no hurry to get here given ridging to its east.
Though lows tonight will once again drop into the 50s, a rebound into the lower 80s will occur during the afternoon Saturday. /GG/ Tomorrow night through Friday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with westerly flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi Valley while a closed low drops through California into the Great Basin.