Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EWD OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING.
Potential For Light Freezing Rain in Lemhi County, Idaho tonight.
Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies. The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal temperatures to the region. This will send a cold front towards the region, but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be well to the northeast of us.
855 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAINLY BEFORE NOON.
149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015 The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US. The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a ridge over the center of the country.
400 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS OR SO. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM. SHRTWV RIDGING WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING RIDGE STILL ON TARGET TO BRING SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WYOMING TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED THIS WEEK BY A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SILENTLY PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW OK LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UP THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD AND DEEP CYCLONE IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST. RELATIVELY FLAT HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CYCLONE HAVE CARVED OUT BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ATLANTIC BIGHT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG MOST OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING THE NORTH WINDS TO DROP OFF. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD KNOCK A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS BUT OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
304 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE JANUARY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A NEAR RECORD WARM AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS OUR REGION. COOLER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE AFTN OF THE STILL MILD AIRMASS WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR MILD AFTN TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
349 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
103 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015 As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw.
OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WEDS. /ISSUED 1015 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE TODAY.
305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BECAUSE THEY HANDLED THE CLOUDS BETTER LAST NIGHT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR S TX THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
109 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015 PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN. THEN DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MODEL PROGGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A SUBTROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ALOFT. BUT SOME DECENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AS THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. THIS HAS AT LEAST ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES. 77 /ISSUED 212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. SHRTWV RIDGING WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION FROM THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A SW FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA.
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. SHRTWV RIDGING WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
143 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 EXPECT PRIMARILY INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO THE LOW 70S. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. 25 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS 9-10C IN PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RIDGE. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG LATEST NWP ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E TROUGH WILL PUSH.
Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but remain below normal for this time of year. A weak ridge of high pressure will quickly move over the area tonight into Friday morning allowing for a drier air mass to move over the region. The clearing skies tonight should allow temperatures to drop into the low 20s and teens for much of western Montana.
IN ADDITION TO THE LOWERED CLOUD DECKS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. PATCHY FOG MOVING ASHORE FROM OVER COOLER GULF WATERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND COUPLES WITH LOWER PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER. THE BEHAVIOR OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAJOR PLAYER IN TODAY'S AND THIS EVENING'S FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE THE SEVERE THUNDERTORM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY HIGH. AS THE 2ND UPPER-LEVEL TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM POORLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES SE. THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ENDING IN A NW-SE MANNER WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING IN SOUTHEAST KS BY NOON AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SE ACROSS KS.
Strong winds at the base of the upper trough will mix down to the surface in the Guadalupe Mountains today so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The previously mentioned upper trough will pass over the Central Plains on Friday and send a cold front southward towards the CWA. This cold front is expected to push through the area Friday morning.
139 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WAVE DROVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
1212 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 FINAL STAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS UNDERWAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING THE AREA TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE RAINFALL CHANCES.
WINDS HAVE LASTED FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT, SO IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD THERE AS LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THERE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, SO ONE MORE NIGHT OF FREEZING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
TODAY WHILE MAIN L/W TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHERE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ARE IN PHASE. WEAK U/L TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/W.
Showers and storms ongoing this morning along the cold front will push southeastward and impact portions of the forecast area this morning particularly from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. Rain and embedded thunder will persist into Friday morning but diminish from the west during the day as the upper trough swings east and the cold fronts slides to the south. Cold air advection on gusty northerly winds along with lingering clouds and rainfall will make for a much cooler day. Good radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the lower and middle 30s.
446 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE KSHV VAD WIND ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIG ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THE WEEKEND.
320 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY.
105 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SO WHAT IS IN STORE? WELL TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AND PRIMER FOR THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
400 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS IA TODAY AND BE SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
532 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
120 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING SERVING TO TEMPORARILY WASH AWAY THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AS THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT.
Winds will subside early this evening with a cold front following but not until Friday morning.
346 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015 A cold frontal boundary over NW Missouri to NE Iowa at the present time will continue moving eastward the remainder of the morning, crossing the Mississippi River into IL around 12Z/7 a. So far, the highest qpf maxima just to the south of the CWA, and Lawrenceville qpf standing in the 2. High pressure takes over for much of the weekend as temps start a brief warming trend with a dry forecast.
303 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-40 AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR AND STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.
307 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH GEORGIA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
629 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
454 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 SFC COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THRU THE FCST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL RETREAT NWD TODAY.
431 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015 A cold front was pushing across the forecast area early this morning as a short wave trough was moving across southern Kansas. By late afternoon, the cold front is likely to stall out in far southeast KS but dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 will remain in place north of the front in east central KS, and expect some sunshine in the area to allow temperatures to warm up to around 70 by this afternoon. Overnight, the enhanced vertical motion with the incoming short wave trough is likely to support elevated showers and perhaps some thunderstorm activity.
351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. SO WILL HAVE TO THE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.
400 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S LATER TODAY AS THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS BREAK UP. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL THEN DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 80S.
406 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CHA AROUND 13Z WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VCTS EXPECTED AT CHA AND TYS EARLIER IN THE PERIOD AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME AREA-WIDE THUNDERSTORMS.
LINGERING MOISTURE /ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z UNTIL 850 MB TROUGH CLEARS TO THE EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK SECONDARY WAVE.
THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER).
611 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH GEORGIA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
A SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEING ELEVATED OVER COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE TOMORROW AS THE TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
312 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. WEAK ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROF COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING. SURFACE TROF SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF BY EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST WITH RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
413 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT PROPAGATES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS AND MVFR STRATUS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT 3 AM RIDGETOPS STILL HAD DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIP. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AND THEN GET A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST ARA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROMPTS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT FREEZING.
656 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST NOW PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE PROMISE OF A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ON THU WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT GRIDS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHICH AGAIN IS HANDLED WELL ALONG WITH THE LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY. THIS MAY BE HINDERED THO BY MODELS SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE ENE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER. THE BEHAVIOR OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAJOR PLAYER IN TODAY'S AND THIS EVENING'S FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE THE SEVERE THUNDERTORM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY HIGH. AS THE 2ND UPPER-LEVEL TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM POORLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. ALL PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ENDING IN A NW-SE MANNER WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING IN SOUTHEAST KS BY NOON AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SE ACROSS KS.
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BREAK OVERNIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.