Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the Southeastern States will keep dry weather across Central Indiana tonight as it drifts farther east. A cold front over the Upper Midwest will sag southward across Indiana on Sunday. High pressure will then build across the area on Sunday Night and monday.
334 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 High pressure will persist through the short term portion of the forecast. NListemaa Above normal temps and dry conditions still the rule as the region remains ridge dominated through midweek.
It will be warm and dry again today with upper level high pressure aloft. Lee trough will not be as strong today, however, with south winds of 5 to 10 mph.
An upper ridge over the area will weaken as a tail end of a short wave approaches and moves across the area tonight. In the meantime, upper ridge builds into the central GOM and expands and shifts eastward Monday night.
A dry pattern will continue today as weak upper level ridging moves eastward across the Western High Plains during the period. A low level stratus deck moving down from southwest Nebraska is expected to linger across much of western Kansas through much of the morning which may help keep temperatures down with highs only in the 60s(F) in central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. Lows are expected down into the upper 40s(F) and the lower to mid 50s(F) Sunday night. Drier conditions are likely to linger into the early part of the work week as medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging in the Central Plains shifting further east toward the eastern seaboard while moisture is slow to return to western Kansas limiting instability.
Another mild day with southwest flow aloft and a thermal ridge at low levels in place. A Pacific cold front enters our western counties overnight. Definitely a windy day per progged low and mid level gradients with the high wind criteria winds continuing for much of southeast Wyoming through the afternoon. Cooler across our Wyoming counties in the wake of the cold front with temperatures near or slightly warmer than Sunday across western Nebraska. Decreasing winds as low level winds decouple, making for a cooler night than Sunday night.
324 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2016 07z/2am surface map shows cold front sinking into north-central Illinois. Meanwhile further north behind the front, temps have dropped into the lower to middle 50s across northern Illinois. High pressure will shift across the region on Monday, allowing winds to veer from northeasterly to southeasterly.
138 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will move across the area overnight followed by a good chance for light rain from far southern Lower Michigan into northwest Ohio and northern Indiana into early Sunday. Rain should end by Sunday evening as high pressure builds into the area. Unseasonably warm weather was over the area and ahead of a cold front this afternoon with temperatures around 70 to the upper 70s. A cold front extended into far northwest Illinois across Lower Michigan.
Light winds and elevated dew points are in place across much of the area with the highest moisture values across the eastern zones. Currently, a flattened ridge is in place across much of the southern CONUS with a weak trough just southeast of Brownsville. Farther to our west, a strong upper trough is pushing closer to the west coast. The upper ridge will continue to keep the weather dry and rain free through the short-term forecast. After a morning of possible low-clouds and fog, highs this afternoon will warm up into the lower to upper 80s across the area. Highs Monday will once again be in the in the lower to upper 80s.
A high pressure center was noted acrs the Dakotas. Aloft, short wave trof was seen on water vapor imagery pushing acrs northern IL, while upstream broad upper ridge was amplifying just to the lee of the Rockies. The above mentioned northern plains high pressure center will continue to slide east acrs MN and IA toward the western GRT LKS through this evening. Taking into account the clouds, time of year and post-frontal cool advection regime, will go with highs not all that much warmer than the current temperatures. The high pressure ridge will continue to migrate eastward into the eastern GRT LKS by Monday morning, which may allow for some light southeasterly return flow to increase acrs the area after midnight into Mon morning.
Short wave trough with showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across eastern Oregon and western and central Idaho last evening, and as of 3 AM MDT was moving north of our CWA. Stronger wave rotating around a Pacific low 40/132 will spread moisture into our CWA from the southwest and south this afternoon while a surface cold front comes in from the west. Also, southwest winds will increase to advisory speeds along and behind the cold front in Harney and Malheur Counties in Oregon and the Owyhee Mountains in idaho this afternoon and evening, and we will post a wind advisory for it. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower today except in the western Magic Valley where highs 65 to 70 are expected before the cold front gets there.
Split stream upper jet will phase as digging upper trough will push through today. Upper jet max of around 90 knots will push through as sub tropical feed will become embedded in the advancing trough. Showers have broke out across the region and are expected to become more widespread later today as trough moves through. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with strong vertical motion associated with the trough. A brief break between systems on Monday before another trough moves across NRN CA Monday night. Clouds will return late on Monday as the trough moves in.
629 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning, clearing the area by this afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the cold front and settle over the Great Lakes for Monday.
Temperatures should stay above freezing given the cloud cover.
A moisture-laden, unstable airmass will see a cold front ripple through southern Idaho, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, and very windy conditions. Another major forecast problem is the wind event expected with the cold frontal passage tonight. MOS guidance is showing 30kt-plus wind only at KPIH, so have reduced High Wind Watches in the south central highlands and in the upper Snake River plain to advisories, and kept the Warning for the "home zone" of the lower Snake River plain. The snow level will drop significantly behind the cold front, to as low as 5500 feet. The unstable conditions continue into Mon and Mon night along with a weak trough passing to the north, but with much less moisture to work with and no coupled jet to be found.
and Monday Rain showers will continue to diminish across the southern portion of the cwa early this morning as high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes. A push of cold air behind the departing low will keep high temperatures a bit cooler today, as highs only reach the 40s across the north with highs in the lower 50s across the southern cwa. Despite high pressure building in across the region, model soundings show quite a bit of low level moisture remaining across the area which should translate to mostly cloudy skies.
However, generally model consensus is that the track of the low pressure will keep the bulk of the precipitation across northern North Dakota. The strongest winds are expected across southern North Dakota, closest to the center of the low and largest pressure rises.
Also, weak upper trough will be located just south of the area. On Monday, center of upper level ridge will shift eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico.
315 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 The Ozarks will see a dry cold front move through the region today.
Upper level ridge over MT will move over the area this afternoon. Upper level trough off the CA coast will move into the Northern Plains Mon with better than 100m height falls.
Otherwise ridging aloft and at the surface combined with dry soils will bring another dry warm day of above normal afternoon highs across the region. For tonight light winds,clear skies,and radiational cooling will allow readings to dip into the lower to upper 50s.
Some of these differences are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the blend/bias corrected which does seem odd. Today's cooler highs were more related to a different air mass source region, and more cloud cover. This could be related to the cooler guidance numbers vs.
The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. High pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the northern Rockies.
653 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 A large upper level low covering the Eastern Seaboard today will push offshore tonight.
/26/ Now through the day Friday: Highly confluent flow aloft is keeping clouds at bay across the region today, despite a cut-off upper low over Texas and Old Mexico (which is about to get kicked out to the east). Lows tonight will be at seasonably chilly values although none one in the region (even the typically-cooler eastern MS spots) is expected to dip down to freezing. /BB/ Showers will begin to spread into the region from the south on Friday night as southerly flow increases, moistening the lower and mid levels, in response to a deep closed low crossing the southern Plains.
A stronger low pressure system will bring substantial rainfall to areas south of highway 50 this weekend.
A passing low pressure system is forecast to bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances of rain and high elevation snow to northern Arizona from Friday and through the weekend. Model forecasts continue to predict that a wet low pressure system will cause a period of active weather across northern Arizona from Friday through the weekend.
402 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Now through the day Friday: Highly confluent flow aloft is keeping clouds at bay across the region today, despite a cut-off upper low over Texas and Old Mexico (which is about to get kicked out to the east). Lows tonight will be at seasonably chilly values although none one in the region (even the typically-cooler eastern MS spots) is expected to dip down to freezing. /BB/ Showers will begin to spread into the region from the south on Friday night as southerly flow increases, moistening the lower and mid levels, in response to a deep closed low crossing the southern Plains.
/Tonight through Friday/ An upper ridge builds into the state tonight through Friday and strong warm advection sets up.
Warm air advection and westerly winds in advance of incoming cold front will keep temperatures mild tonight for this time of year. A high amplitude ridge persists over the western CONUS Friday night through the weekend, slowly making its way east.
Surface wise, high pressure is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico with a ridge nosing toward south Florida and our region. Given a strengthening deep layered ridge in the Gulf of Mexico crawling eastward, the combination of strong mid and upper level subsidence and moisture limited below 850 will preclude shower activity.
Weak high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry weather Friday.
1011 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 A warm front will develop and lift across the region tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures will drop overnight, however some rises in temperatures will occur as warmer air works in. Temperatures will be much warmer and well above normal for Friday. Warm front will push north of the entire forecast area Friday morning. Southerly low level flow will ensue with an upper ridge building into the region. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for lows Friday night.
Conditions should remain VFR through the TAF period at all terminals as high pressure and drier air prevails across South Florida. High pressure continues to build across the region from the northwest as a cold front that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday continues to exit south of the region. A lingering post-frontal trough has allowed for fairly abundant cloud cover, but dry weather, to remain firmly in place across the region for much of the day. High pressure will prevail across the region on Friday with another pleasant mid-February day expected amid mostly clear skies. Low temperatures Friday night will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday night, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
538 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Warm above normal temperatures will continue this period across Kansas with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s, as upper level ridging builds across the central US.
843 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper level ridge west of the area will continue to build eastward as some middle to upper level moisture streams SE across Kentucky and East Tennessee toward the Middle Atlantic coast overnight. This will keep northern third of the area in some overnight cloudiness which will decrease by Friday afternoon as the ridge axis becomes centered over Middle Tennessee. Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 67 45 58 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 64 41 57 / 0 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 34 65 41 57 / 0 0 0 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 63 36 58 / 0 0 0 30.
A Rex Block pattern over western North America into northern Mexico this morning is in the process of getting kicked eastward as a strong upper level trough approaches from the eastern Pacific. Over the next 24 hours, the closed low currently over northern Mexico will shift into the southern Plains. There is not much moisture currently associated with this low and only some scattered cloudiness and isolated showers have been noted over west Texas. This system will pull some Gulf moisture up into the southern Plains on Friday but it will be east of the High Plains before this happens.
910 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front was lifting slowly north across the forecast area early this evening. High pressure continues to dominate the weather map across much of the Plains and Midwest this afternoon. However, a weak warm front continues to move through the region this afternoon, and southerly winds usher in warmer temperatures. The warm temperatures are part of a longer warming trend, and tonights lows will remain above freezing for Central Illinois.
536 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Tonight will see light winds again as a weak trough of low pressure drifts into the area. This will lead into a very warm Friday as this trough of low pressure/cool front moves through.
This along with the approach/pass- age of the next upper trof/low across the state will produce scat- tered SHRA/isolated TSRA over SE TX tomorrow. The track of this disturbance (just off the mid/upper TX coast) combined with the deeper moisture (southern half of the CWA) will keep the highest POPS in these locations for tomorrow. As this system clears out to the east tomorrow night, a brief res- pite with ridging aloft in place for Sat/early Sun. 8 to 2 inches remain in place as well as the track of the upper low itself (generally right over SE TX).
18Z surface data has a warm front running from southwest Minnesota into west central Illinois.
1058 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Low pressure continues to pinwheel away from New Hampshire and western Maine tonight. Some lingering mountain snow showers will be possible overnight and into Friday before high pressure builds into the region to start the weekend.
Clouds will gradually return into the Four State Area ahead of an upper level closed low moving across West Texas around and after 17/12Z with high clouds during the early morning followed by lowering cloud bases into the middle levels between 8-15 kft and below 6 kft in the middle to late afternoon.
The closed low bringing heavy rains to California on Friday will tighten the pressure gradient between high pressure in place and the incoming trough. The closed low over California will increase moisture from the southwest on Friday with showers expected to begin over the mountains late Friday afternoon.
928 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Deep low pressure will remain over the Maritimes tonight. A weakening high pressure ridge will then approach from the west, and move across Friday night.
833 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 The Tri State region currently resides wedged in between a frontal boundary and high pressure to the east. low pressure to the south and an approaching boundary over the Rockies. Closer to the CWA a weak trough resides over the Front Range providing the area with localized downslope SSW flow. These conditions are helping to keep the CWA clear at this time with temps ranging in the mid 40s thru the lower 50s. Warm air advection and westerly winds in advance of incoming cold front will keep temperatures mild tonight for this time of year. A high amplitude ridge persists over the western CONUS Friday night through the weekend, slowly making its way east.
526 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 A plume of high cirrus has been streaming southeastward over the area today within the broad 1000-700 mb warm advection regime on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge building across the plains. As the ridge axis progresses into the area on Friday, model soundings indicate less cloud cover, while 925 mb temps rise to 11-14C by late in the day. Upstream obs south of a warm frontal boundary this afternoon across southern Iowa, more indicative of our air mass for tomorrow, are in the 50s to low 60s as of 20Z.
Therefore, the SCEC will be dropped, as seas should subside further to 3-4FT late tonight and 2-3FT by Friday afternoon as high pressure ridge over the NE GOMEX slides east across Florida and the adjacent MAOR. Highs will be near normal for mid February in the lower 70s far nrn areas to the mid 70s central/south. Progressive pattern over the CONUS as an upper low over the Ark/La/Tex area early Sat will eject across the Lower MS valley and then OH valley Sat night.
644 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Skies will begin to clear Friday as low pressure moves northeastward.
Low level warm advection will persist through tonight and Friday which will keep mild conditions at night and even warmer high temperatures on Friday into the upper 60s to low 70s. A closed low will slowly track to our south Friday night and we may see some shower activity across the eastern Ozarks, but probabilities look pretty low at this point with most of the moisture and lift staying south of our CWA.
Holy Spring, Batman! It's gorgeous out there today and tomorrow is going to be even warmer.
919 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure will build in overhead tonight.
/Issued 246 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/ Latest water vapor shows a moisture starved upper low over northern Mexico this afternoon, which will eject northeast across western Texas and Oklahoma through Friday.
Currently, upper level ridge centered over the Great Plains into south central Canada. Ridge axis continues to our east tonight allowing southwest flow into the region and a cold front into the central Dakotas. The potent embedded S/WV trough slides east into eastern Montana by 12Z Friday, then across North Dakota Friday daytime. Cooler temperatures due to weak CAA and more sky cover, though still very mild in the upper 30s and 40s.
A closed low was located over northern Mexico. North of this feature a trough of low pressure extended from the Gulf of Alaska to off the coast of northern California. East of this trough, a high amplitude ridge extended from the central and northern Rockies north into northern Saskatchewan. Downstream of the ridge, an upper level low was located over southern Quebec with a trough of low pressure extending south into New England and the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming into southeastern Colorado. A clear and calm night with high pressure dominating. This will drive a weak cold front south through the area, with highs a few degrees cooler than today's highs.
722 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 A warm front will develop and lift across the region tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures will drop overnight, however some rises in temperatures will be possible late as warmer air works in. Warm front will push north of the entire forecast area Friday morning. Southerly low level flow will ensue with an upper ridge building into the region. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for lows Friday night.
Records again are in jeopardy tomorrow, but less confident in breaking them with the trough moving through.
As upper ridge shifts east tonight and tomorrow we should see less cloud cover as these clouds shift east. Very mild column in place so hopefully with more solar temperatures should be warmer.
852 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Clear skies prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley and surrounding region, thanks to a light southerly flow around an area of high pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Some higher altitude clouds exiting south of northern stream were moving this direction, but dissipating over the mid Mississippi Valley, as they moved into short-amplitude ridging building across the southern states. Lows overall should be warmer mainly in the mid 30s most locations, but around 30 in the colder spots. The work week will end on dry and warmer note.
426 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper level ridge across the Northern Plains this afternoon. Weak cold front slips through the area Friday with highs around 10F cooler than today.
Water vapor imagery shows a fairly large upper low spinning over north-central Mexico that will head in our direction overnight and this will spread some mid level moisture into the region after dark. Temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than last night. as the core of the upper trough gets closer to North Texas.
Weak, elongated upper low over Mexico continues lifting northeast and will move across the Texas Big Country overnight.
This has allowed for some of the deeper valley locations that experienced persistent cloud cover today to fall into the low to mid 30s so far. Meanwhile, the ridgetops and more open terrain areas have remained mixed so far. For tonight, because of the slow northeast track, it will take a bit of time to set up the ridge to valley temperatures split tonight with that in mind. As the mentioned warm front associated with the wave tracking across the Great Lakes lifts northeast, expect skies to clear out for Friday along with some well above normal temperatures as highs tomorrow will soar to around 60 degrees for highs. The clear skies heading into Friday night will allow for a few valley to ridge differences but the stronger southwest flow ahead of the next system will continue to limit this a bit.
Temps expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across inland areas of northeast Fl by early Fri am which will also closely match the dewpoint temps.
935 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure is situated along the gulf coast. Lows tonight will run about ten degrees warmer than last night with highs Friday in the mid and upper 60s.
627 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Intense low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will slowly drift towards Newfoundland by Friday morning.
545 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure will build across the southeastern states through Friday.
Dry with warmer conditions are expected for one more day Friday. Then a strong Pacific storm system will bring a very good chance of valley rain, mountain snow, cooler temperatures and gusty winds this weekend. Another mild evening tonight with yet another warmer than normal day expected tomorrow. With a warmer start, afternoon temperatures will still end up pretty close to today's highs despite an increase in cloud cover.
Lows tonight will run about ten degrees warmer than last night with highs Friday in the mid and upper 60s.
An upper low will be moving into California on Friday.
825 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Low pressure continues to pinwheel away from New Hampshire and western Maine tonight. Some lingering mountain snow showers will be possible overnight and into Friday before high pressure builds into the region to start the weekend.