Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A back door cold front that spans from Williston to Linton will continue to move westward switching the wind direction out of the east. A back door cold front continues to move westward through central North Dakota this morning. Northwesterly flow will move eastward this afternoon as upper level ridging settles over the Northern Rockies spanning into the Northern Plains. The aforementioned cold front will cause temperatures to slightly decrease this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to sit in the lower 60s out east to the mid 70s out west. Wednesday, high temperatures are forecast to warm up into the upper 60s out east to the lower 80s out west.
* Frost possible in northern and northeastern Missouri Wednesday The quiet forecast continues across the area as high pressure at the surface continues its dominance. By Wednesday morning another shot of cool and dry air will reinforce the already relatively cooler and drier air mass.
535 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 High pressure which settled over the Pan Handle region will continue to bring modest levels of moisture to the southern and central mountains of western Colorado today and Wednesday.
A fairly deep upper trof over the eastern United States has ushered in a much cooler and drier air mass into Central Alabama. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees lower than today, as the circulation around TC Ian helps pulls a even cooler air.
543 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 There will be a slight movement in the upper ridge position as it shifts just a bit eastward, right over Colorado today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with some slight cooling in coming from the east along with a bit more cloudiness this afternoon. On Wednesday, the ridge will be centered over northern New Mexico with the next trough just off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
A large low pressure across the Great Lakes continues to make its way eastward. Ridging behind this low keeps the fall-like conditions around through midweek. Temperatures remain relatively cool as northerly flow from central/eastern Canada continues to advect cooler air in behind the trough axis. Diurnally driven gusty winds dissipate as the low moves toward the east.
457 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 High pressure which settled over the Pan Handle region will continue to bring modest levels of moisture to the southern and central mountains of western Colorado today and Wednesday.
949 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 High pressure will build into the forecast area today with a dry air mass in place. Rua The dominating force over the short term period will be the interaction between developing high pressure over the Midwest and Hurricane Ian over the eastern Gulf. Louisiana, situated between these two features, will experience several days of breezy, beautiful and seasonally cool weather brought on by yesterday's cold frontal passage.
455 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper ridge over the region will keep warm temperatures and dry weather for the next several days. Pressure gradient tightens slightly on Wednesday between the lee trof and high pressure in Minnesota.
Today will be quiet and pleasant with a temp gradient along a subtle back-door cold front leaving lower to mid-70s in western Iowa to near 80F near Fairbury. NBM seems a bit warm, but it suggests a 14% chance of actually hitting freezing as close as Atlantic, Iowa. Mid-level troughing over the Great Lakes fills and ejects east for Wednesday as return flow develops. Highs will be relegated to the 60s, about 5-10 degrees cooler than climatological norms of late September.
Although the stratus is more extensive, the low-level inversion will further weaken through the day, allowing for clouds to at least partially break up with daytime heating. Temperatures will be moderating today and Wednesday as the upper trough digs off the Pacific NW coast. The latest models continue to indicate a ridge over the West Coast over the weekend with the potential of an omega block pattern. Approaching low pressure and colder air aloft has allowed the marine inversion to weaken and lift up to around 1500 feet. WIth low pressure approaching, model soundings are hinting at stratus scattering out more deeply by early Wednesday morning.
614 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today under breezy downslope southwesterly winds. Winds will turn to the southwest courtesy of a surface lee cyclone developing in southeastern Colorado. An upper level ridge will slowly move overhead allowing for weak flow aloft to take over. At the same time, a weak cold front will slowly sag south through the Texas Panhandle.
Temperatures this morning are struggling a bit to reach below the freezing mark. A somewhat similar scenario is expected tonight as lows are currently forecasted to drop below freezing over much of the area. The caveat for tonight's low temperatures is cloud cover moving in from the west which will create a blanket-like effect to keep temperatures warmer than what is currently forecasted. Additionally, the NBM appears to be the outlier with forecasting the lowest temperatures compared to deterministic model output. High pressure is expected to build in from the west which will allow the winds to drop off to near zero therefore, temperatures will be dependent on how much, if any clouds makes it into our CWA.
Heading into Wed, a weak mid lvl trof wl swing thru the region, followed by a reinforcing high pres rdg bldg in fm the north.
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Tuesday through Wednesday) The flow aloft will be characterized by a large upper trough over the Northeast CONUS and a broad upper ridge, which will slowly migrate eastward through Wednesday. The NBM continues to run warmer than most of the models for overnight temperatures, so this forecast issuance undercuts low temps for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The upper ridge will move into Eastern New Mexico/West Texas during the day Wednesday. Strong subsidence will result in a general persistence forecast with clear skies and daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s.
High pressure over the region begins to slowly break down today, however the CWA will remain dry with well above normal high temperatures. An upper level low currently just off the Pacific NW coast will drift slightly eastward today, resulting in wind gusts over NV this afternoon of 15 to 25 mph under an increasing southwesterly flow aloft.
408 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler and dry through the period. Otherwise, our normal highs run in the lower 80s. Highs today will range from the upper 70s east to the lower 80s elsewhere. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal temperatures mainly in the lower 50s although a few sites may dip into the upper 40s.
523 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Looks to be another pleasant day across the region as high pressure continues to build in from the west. The CWA will remain situated under deep upper troughing which encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and cooler conditions will prevail on Wednesday.
A weak cold front will move through the region later tonight, bringing in colder air for lows Wednesday morning in the low 40s and even some upper 30s in the east and the usual cooler spots. The cooler temps will result in lower high temps for Wednesday, so min RH values will not be as low as today, but still low enough min RH values and wind speeds around 10 to 15 mph will yield marginal fire danger conditions Wednesday as well.
A large area of high pressure was located over central Canada and the Upper Midwest per the SPC mesoanalysis. Frost Potential Tonight: High pressure will continue to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley region, leading to mainly clear skies and light winds locally. The best chance for widespread frost is northwest of a Sterling, IL to Quad Cities to Fairfield, IA line, where forecast lows are in the low to mid 30s. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper 30s, although favored low-lying locations could dip into the lower 30s.
714 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Aviation Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis over eastern Ohio and slowly moving east.
632 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Northwest mid/upper flow today will gradually transition to weak mid/upper flow as we see more influence from the mid/upper ridge across the Rockies. A backdoor front will arrive late in the period today or early in the period tonight ushering in more seasonable air across the area on Wednesday with highs only reaching the 70s for most areas although those near the OK state line may climb into the lower 80s.
/CRJ/ Today and Tonight: Cooler and dry through the period. Otherwise, our normal highs run in the lower 80s. Highs today will range from the upper 70s east to the lower 80s elsewhere. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal temperatures mainly in the lower 50s although a few sites may dip into the upper 40s.
Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Elsewhere, clear skies and calm winds will bring temperatures into the low to mid 30s which will produce widespread frost and potentially a light freeze in some areas.
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over NM today extends northward along the Rockies to Canada as a broad upper trough spins over the Eastern US. As the trough moves east Wednesday the ridge axis will shift onto the plains. Wednesday similar temps maybe a degree or two warmer.
Upper ridge will be nudged east the next few days as the developing trough over the eastern Pacific moves into the PacNW.
(Today through Wednesday) Looks to be another pleasant day across the region as high pressure continues to build in from the west. The CWA will remain situated under deep upper troughing which encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and cooler conditions will prevail on Wednesday.
Expecting a pleasant fall day today with light winds out of the northeast and east, copious amounts of sunshine, and daytime temps ranging from the lower 50s near LOW to lower 60s in eastern ND. Still looking on track for another chilly night with frost and freezing temps probable, but still looking into refining locations for potential frost/freeze headlines tonight. Overall, a ridge building in the short term will keep most impactful weather at bay. Areas of cloud cover provide some hope that not too many areas will get down to freezing, however, areas in the northern part of Minnesota could as clouds will not become more widespread in those areas until later in the morning. Make sure to bring in or cover sensitive vegetation! Wednesday will be another quiet day under high pressure.
Dry and cool early fall weather continues with a longwave upper trof residing over the eastern CONUS.
As an upper level trough then dives into the great lakes region late in the day. expect a weak backdoor type cold front to advect some cooler air back across the region for Wednesday. expect high pressure to then extend further into the plains for the latter half of the week as Hurricane Ian moves onshore across Florida and tracks north into the southeastern US. This should slow down the upper level trough to our west later this week.
651 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The dominating force over the short term period will be the interaction between developing high pressure over the Midwest and Hurricane Ian over the eastern Gulf. Louisiana, situated between these two features, will experience several days of breezy, beautiful and seasonally cool weather brought on by yesterday's cold frontal passage.
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday) The cold front is slowly edging into Deep South Texas, with thunderstorms offshore diving southward this morning. Expect the chance of rain to increase along the frontal boundary as it works south into this afternoon, especially across the lower to mid RGV into early this afternoon.
713 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Warm but much drier conditions prevail in the immediate term following the passage of yesterday's surface cold front.
High pressure continues to support high confidence in low-impact wx today and Wed, with highs 10-15 degrees above normal.
The dominating force over the short term period will be the interaction between developing high pressure over the Midwest and Hurricane Ian over the eastern Gulf. Louisiana, situated between these two features, will experience several days of breezy, beautiful and seasonally cool weather brought on by yesterday's cold frontal passage.
The Middle Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge has been added to the Tropical Storm Warning.
Overall, a ridge building in the short term will keep most impactful weather at bay. Areas of cloud cover provide some hope that not too many areas will get down to freezing, however, areas in the northern part of Minnesota could as clouds will not become more widespread in those areas until later in the morning. Make sure to bring in or cover sensitive vegetation! Wednesday will be another quiet day under high pressure.
1005 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The axis of a persistent upper level longwave trough will cross the region late today.
Barnes Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Dry and subsident conditions beneath a mid-level ridge will continue to keep quiet weather in place through Wednesday. Unfortunately, the low humidity will continue to keep the fire weather threat elevated through Wednesday, but wind speeds less than 10-15 mph will preclude a greater threat.
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler and dry through the period. Otherwise, our normal highs run in the lower 80s. Highs today will range from the upper 70s east to the lower 80s elsewhere. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal temperatures mainly in the lower 50s although a few sites may dip into the upper 40s.
936 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 High pressure at the sfc will make for a lovely autumn day with sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 80s for highs this afternoon. /19/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) The flow aloft will be characterized by a large upper trough over the Northeast CONUS and a broad upper ridge, which will slowly migrate eastward through Wednesday. The NBM continues to run warmer than most of the models for overnight temperatures, so this forecast issuance undercuts low temps for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The upper ridge will move into Eastern New Mexico/West Texas during the day Wednesday. Strong subsidence will result in a general persistence forecast with clear skies and daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s.
634 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 A back door cold front that spans from Williston to Linton will continue to move westward switching the wind direction out of the east. A back door cold front continues to move westward through central North Dakota this morning. Northwesterly flow will move eastward this afternoon as upper level ridging settles over the Northern Rockies spanning into the Northern Plains. The aforementioned cold front will cause temperatures to slightly decrease this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to sit in the lower 60s out east to the mid 70s out west. Wednesday, high temperatures are forecast to warm up into the upper 60s out east to the lower 80s out west.
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 A slow moving upper level low pressure system will remain over the region through mid week, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly over central NY.
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today and tonight) We will remain wedged between high pressure off to the west and a broad trough across the eastern US. Look for slightly cooler temperatures across the region as mostly clear skies remain in place overnight.
Ahead of the trough temperatures will range from the upper 70s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 80s across southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri this afternoon. The trough and associated front will move south through the area tonight. Lows tonight into Wednesday morning will range from the lower 40s across central Missouri to the lower 50s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.
High temperatures are forecast to be cooler with mid to upper 70s expected.
203 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper level ridging encompasses much of the western CONUS as upper level high pressure is currently situated across the southwestern CONUS. A weak upper level low pressure trough is currently located across eastern Alberta. Additionally, an upper level closed low pressure system is located in northern Quebec accompanied with an upper level trough extending south into the South Atlantic states. South of this trough, Hurricane Ian is located north of far western tip of Cuba. At the surface, high pressure is extending from northern Ontario into Upper Midwest and portions of the High Plains.
1207 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 A weak cold front crosses the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Sprawling high pressure then builds in from the north and west and will spread over the Northeast through the end of the week. A mid-level trough axis will remain to our west across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions through tonight while becoming positively tilted. At the surface, low pressure will pass eastward across the Saint Lawrence Valley toward the Canadian Maritimes while high pressure settles across the upper Midwest. Although I bumped down afternoon high temperatures by a degree or two, they will still be seasonable with highs in the low to mid 70s.
201 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 An upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather through Wednesday night with dry and warm conditions. Only a few clouds expected as a weak disturbance moves along the periphery of the ridge. Flow aloft will back to the southwest by Wednesday night due to an approaching trough from the west.
Impressive 500 mb height rises are then expected on Wed with low amplitude ridging on the 582 DM height contour for late in the day and night. The high will then expand w-e across the Great Lakes and linger into Fri. Srn WI will be on the wrn periphery of the high with sunshine and warming temps each day.
Wednesday will be cooler, as a trough will dig into the Lower Great Lakes, bringing a pseudo backdoor cold front into the area. While dew point temperatures will be similar to today's values, especially across SE MO, SW IL, and far W KY, the lower temperatures will result in slightly higher RH values.
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper ridging over the region will maintain above average temperatures and dry weather conditions for the next couple of days.
A weak cold front pushed south across southwest Kansas earlier today, but the airmass behind this front was initially about the same as the airmass ahead of it, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The cooler low level airmass on the easterly winds on Wednesday will result in a cooler afternoon vs.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to drop southward over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas tonight, with it likely having the most affect on the far eastern CWA. With temperatures already a bit cooler in that part of the CWA, along with that area seeing the best potential for radiational cooling overnight under the high, expect to see temperatures fall into the 32 to 36 degree range, especially along and east of Interstate 29. Attention then turns to Wednesday when he high begins to slide east and low pressure approaches from the west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 30s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 40s west of the Missouri River. Otherwise, warmer than average temps expected through the the weekend.
1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) With the cold front well south of our area, we have a much drier and slightly cooler airmass in place over West Central Texas. Combined with the dry air in place, this will create prime radiational cooling conditions - meaning lows will be on the cooler side in the mid to upper 50s with drainage spots and low lying areas potentially dropping even further. The large upper trough across the eastern CONUS will continue to drift east. In response, the upper ridge across the western CONUS will also slide east with the upper high reasserting itself over the Four Corners region and Texas. As such, daytime highs tomorrow will be a touch warmer than today in the upper 80s to low 90s.
/16 (Now through Wednesday) Through the Near Term, increasing north to northeasterly winds over the area as Ian moves onshore over the Florida Peninsula will continue to usher in a drier and cooler airmass.
Our southwest IA counties and portions of northeast NE will be most influenced by the high pressure with clear skies and light winds allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid 30s.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Wednesday Night/ North Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of mid level ridging through Wednesday with light northerly flow aloft. The low afternoon humidity will support a grass fire threat across much of North and Central Texas through Wednesday, although light winds will limit overall spread.
This activity is not expected to result in any rain as the lower atmosphere remains rather dry. A cold front will stall to our north tomorrow. This would usually result in us becoming pretty hot, but with the front washing out as it moves through the Panhandle and the downslope component of the wind decreasing early tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today.
A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia this afternoon and evening as a strong short wave rounds the base of an upper level low spinning just to the north of the area. A persistent weather pattern is expected on Wednesday as the upper low remains just north, with afternoon showers confined along southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia.
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Pleasant fall weather will continue through the short-term as high pressure at the surface dominates.
346 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper level trough and cold temperatures aloft will lead to scattered showers mainly across the Great Lake overnight. This high will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes through the end of the week resulting in continued dry weather. Amplified mid level flow with a mean long wave trof over the Great Lakes and New England. Low temperatures 8 to 10 degrees below normal -- ranging from the lower 40s and middle north where more cloud cover is expected to near 40 south. Amplified flow pattern with 500 MB trof hanging back across the area Wednesday. Temperatures to remain below normal with lows in the lower and middle 40s.
/19/ High pressure at the sfc will make for a lovely autumn day with sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 80s for highs this afternoon. /19/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) The flow aloft will be characterized by a large upper trough over the Northeast CONUS and a broad upper ridge, which will slowly migrate eastward through Wednesday. The NBM continues to run warmer than most of the models for overnight temperatures, so this forecast issuance undercuts low temps for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The upper ridge will move into Eastern New Mexico/West Texas during the day Wednesday. Strong subsidence will result in a general persistence forecast with clear skies and daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s.
- Pleasant weather continues through the weekend with highs near seasonal normals, lows a bit cooler than normal, and dry conditions continuing. A stout closed area of high pressure will descend out of Canada into the Upper Midwest tonight and bring an infusion of cooler air southward into the region. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to range from the mid 60s to the low 70s under clear skies. Another chilly night is expected tomorrow night with temperatures in the low 40s possible even across the KC metro thanks to very efficient radiational cooling.