Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a trough approaches the area from the northwest, the upper level ridge over the southeastern Conus will weaken today. Weak upper level troughing will develop to our west over Mississippi and Louisiana, with a weak impulse rotating northward across Alabama, between the weak trough and the ridge. Could also see influence from the weak trough to our west, as well as, the more typical summer time, peak heating development. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
733 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Have sent and update to increase PoPs aross the Lower Trans Pecos. Despite some recent cooling cloud tops SHRA, some with heavy rain, are numerous across the Lower Trans Pecos. /issued 344 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ Have a broad ridge over the Western U. After this low passes the ridge is expected to once again strengthen across the area. Mainly low pops in the extended will favor the higher elevations.
A wind shift/effective cold front is currently located across north central Oklahoma--generally along a line between the first and second row of counties south of the Kansas border. /issued 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ The synoptic cold front has essentially stalled across northwestern OK early this morning, with an outflow boundary extending from near Enid to Stillwater.
A warming trend is expected to begin today as high pressure builds into California from the desert southwest. High pressure over the intermountain west began to backbuild into the region last night. Temperatures today will be somewhat warmer when compared to yesterdays readings as the ridge begins to strengthens over the California. Much hotter temperatures are expected for our extreme inland and mountainous regions through this weekend as the ridge expands farther while strengthening aloft.
Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures vary from the lower 80s to the mid and upper 80s. Surface wise, a formidable western Atlantic ridge axis reaches well into the southeast United States, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast winds on our marine district.
A more distinct cold front dropping south from Canada could be the trigger for stronger thunderstorms over the Yellowstone River Valley in the evening. Due to the cold front Friday night, overnight lows will be slightly cooler. This cooler start to the day will result in highs more in the mid 90s.
1041 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Massive western CONUS ridge will bring hot conditions to the region the next few days. The FA will remain on the edge of the ridge with topping impulses slated to pass through the region, supporting ISOLD-SCT Ts at times in the region. Timing at peak heating will be more than enough to break the cap there and support sct TS along/near the trough from NE WY into NW SD.
Upper low spinning over the S Gulf and Yucatan peninsula. Daytime temperatures will climb into the lower 90s with some middle 90s possible across the interior. It will remain hot and muggy with temps topping out in the low/mid 90s with heat indices in the 100-104 range. A blocking upper air pattern will continue into the medium to long range period as stout high pressure remains centered over the central and western CONUS, with weak troughing across the Great Lakes and New England. Along the southern periphery of broad cyclonic flow, modest subtropical ridging will extend into the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states. Subtle shifts in the ridge axis will be the main driver of daily rain chances.
Most of the showers and storms should gradually dissipate after sunset, but a few isolated showers may persist into the night as a weak cold front and upper level trough move into the area. /issued 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ A pattern change will begin to take place today as ridging aloft will begin to amplify from the Desert SW region.
High pressure is expected to slide slowly southeastward across the region during this time. The high will provide quiet weather. Medium A warm low level westerly flow brings a surge of warmer air into the area. A cold front will be moving into northern WI throughout the day and will likely serve as the focus for shra/tsra there. We should remain dry here in the south with the warmer regime. Medium Cold front will drop into southern WI with models not overly excited with QPF or POPS.
702 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front will continue to move through the area today bringing cooler and less humid conditions.
A warm front extended through southeast Montana and will be moving east through western North Dakota today. With thermal ridging at h850 centered across southwest North Dakota and some compressional heating/mixing up through 700 MB today see no reason to depart from the hot weather with highs 100 to 103 that has been advertised for the past few days. So see only limited capping to inhibit convective initiation along the cold front as it moves east through the region by late afternoon and evening. Saturday will be cooler especially north central where northerly flow behind the cold front will bring in cooler air.
High pressure was situated over the eastern Dakotas and northern MN where temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Today: High pressure will be building into the cwa from the northwest as the day progresses. Maximum temperatures will range from the lower 70s from Dubuque to Freeport areas, to the lower 80s in our far southern cwa. Tonight: High pressure will settle over the cwa with clear skies and light to calm winds.
Storm motion will vary day to day depending on the position of a mid level high pressure system that will migrate around the region.
A strong upper level ridge over the western U. The overall pattern looks very typical of mid- summer, with a strong upper high over the Southwest U. and an upper trough offshore. So the forecast of warmer temperatures today is still well on track, with high temps near 80F over the interior from Seattle on south. An offshore upper trough will make headway toward Western Washington on Saturday, then cross the forecast area on Saturday night.
A warming trend is expected to begin today as high pressure builds into California from the desert southwest. The marine layer is only around 1000 feet at this time per the Fort Ord profiler, being compressed by high pressure. High pressure aloft building into California from the desert southwest will warm the district over the next several days, especially across inland areas.
As a result, NW IL and NE IA will struggle to reach the low 70s today. High pressure was situated over the eastern Dakotas and northern MN where temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Today: High pressure will be building into the cwa from the northwest as the day progresses. Maximum temperatures will range from the lower 70s from Dubuque to Freeport areas, to the lower 80s in our far southern cwa. Tonight: High pressure will settle over the cwa with clear skies and light to calm winds.
Some fog has developed along the far eastern/southeastern fringes of the forecast area closest to the center of the high. The main story for the first half of the day will be the much warmer air being pulled into the region as southerly flow increases behind the departing high. Winds should be the strongest across the west with a tightening pressure gradient as the high moves off and an area of low pressure develops across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This will help push temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s across the far western forecast area, low to mid 80s for the Red River Valley, and relatively cooler upper 70s in the east. No surprises in the latest model runs with the previously mentioned area of low pressure propagating to the south and east, dragging a frontal boundary across the forecast area.
This is due to an mid/upper level high pressure draped across the eastern half of TX, providing subsidence across S TX.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible this afternoon in the higher terrain before monsoon moisture begins to return over the weekend.
The dominating upper level ridge across the Rockies will continue to expand eastward through the weekend.
846 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The threat for showers and storms will continue today with the slow passage of a cold front. Cooler and more comfortable for the weekend. This is in response to a weak wave passing through the upper-level trough approaching the area. Showers and thunderstorms will then re-fire this early this afternoon as the cold front and parent upper low approaches from the northwest. The cold front will finally drive south of the area late tonight as the upper-level low pushes through. Northwest flow aloft and building high pressure will provide a drier and more comfortable weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. Scattered showers and possibly a few storms will be possible this morning as a cold front crosses this morning.
It will remain mostly clear tonight as the high continues to shift eastward.
/issued 209 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017/ Water vapor reveals a well defined shrtwv trof and a 5h 30-35kt speed max dropping s into the S Plains. Said shrtwv trof will continue to move s or even sw into Sun and this along with a hint of the surface boundary INVOF I-10 there will still be a few tstms possible across SE PB/Lower Trans Pecos Sun PM. In the meantime, however deepening mid level cyclonic flow encompassing the cntrl/nrn plains driving a cold front s. Cooler wx will follow Wed with highs mostly in the 80s.
Few -SHRA/-TSRA are anticipated over the high terrain of mainly north-central, and southern NM. Hazy skies will most noticeable across the northern and eastern halves of the state as wildfire smoke from the northwest states drifts southeast in the clockwise flow around an upper high centered over Utah. High pressure will be in control most of time through the forecast period.
A large H5 ridge over the western portion of the country is creating a NW upper flow over the Plains region. hot conditions will ensue with upper ridge in place over the west. but a shift in the ridge slightly overnight into Sunday. Southerly winds will set up as well in the lower levels aiding in keeping smoke north of the CWA.
335 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will move well northeast of the region today.
Cooler temperatures with thunderstorms during the later portions of the week. High pressure over the region will bring hot temperatures to Nevada. The highs are expected to be well above normal with many region in the mid to upper 90s and several valleys reaching into the low 100s. A little moisture rotating around the high axis may move into central Nevada brining a chance for isolated thunderstorms.
641 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
Otherwise, expect a warmer airmass to our west to begin advecting across the area this afternoon as the lower level flow begins to shift out of the west-southwest. Southwesterly surface flow will increase a bit across northern Illinois tonight in association with the approach of a frontal trough of low pressure. As a result, temperatures tonight are likely to be several degrees warmer than the past several nights, with lows mainly in the 60s expected.
Eastern periphery of strong expansive upper ridge over the Great Basin will control Sunday's weather, supplying strong subsidence and a sunny, hot and dry afternoon. Monday into Monday night will be a tale of two stories as the first half will continue a warm, dry weather regime while the latter period will see a vigorous cold front push through the region.
437 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build in today bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures.
421 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
229 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure aloft will very warm mostly dry weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas today and again on Labor Day.
239 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Upper level ridge will remain parked over the western half of the country. Airmass will be about 4-8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer today with highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s today over northeast Colorado. By Monday the upper ridge will stretch from the Pacific NW into the four corners region with a strong upper trough over the Great Lakes. The trough will dive south into Colorado by late Monday bringing slightly increased RH values and a nice respite from the warm temperatures. Prior to that moisture will steadily increase allowing for some isolated convection over the higher terrain by the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average with highs reaching into the lower 90s across the region.
A weak surface cold front has moved to the southern part of the forecast area during the day with mainly light winds behind the front. An upper level ridge will nose into the forecast area tonight and Sunday. Sunday night there is a cold front that will move into the forecast area, by Monday afternoon, the front is already to the south of the forecast area.
342 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 (Today and Tonight) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, south of the Big country, as an upper trough over the Concho Valley moves south of I-10 tonight. Highs today will be mainly in the lower 90s, with lows tonight in the mid and upper 60s.
407 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Tranquil weather continued overnight with temperatures cooling into the upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south. a northerly flow continues as high pressure continues over the area. perhaps just a tad cooler along the coastal interface of land and water.
Very warm and windy conditions are in the forecast for Sunday, as a cold front traverses southeastward across ND. Ensemble and deterministic models provide good agreement on a broad upper level trough digging into the Northern Plains Monday.
out ahead of a strong cold front that is still progged to move across SE TX Tues night through Weds morning. A much cooler/drier airmass will be settling over the state during the latter part of the week as the deep upper ridge out west builds east across the region. This first of the season cold front is about a week ahead of schedule (climatologically), but we'll take it (especially after last week).
305 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest SK, with cold front stretching westward across far southwest Canada. Upper level analysis shows high pressure still centered over the Great Basin region, with large scale trough over the Great Lakes region. Hot and dry weather can be expected today, ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs will be well above average, 90s to around 100 degrees, with upper 80s across the higher Black Hills. The dry cold front will begin to move into northwest SD by late afternoon and then move southeast across the rest of the forecast area tonight. Much cooler air will be in place for the first half of the week, with highs below average.
A weak cold front has passed through the region. Weak upper level troughing across the area will slide eastward overnight with some drier air briefly moving into the northern portions of the area. Low level ridging will prevail for the next few days with mostly zonal flow aloft, rendering drier conditions. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be slightly below average at around 20-40%, with the highest chances in north Florida.
639 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure and drier today through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. Expect dry conditions with cooler temperatures through tonight. Weak high pressure builds from the south through tonight. Labor Day is looking like a great day with mostly sunny skies with weak high pressure overhead.
351 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 The short term will feature a strong cold front. But, first, a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will provide the Northland with quite a bit of sunshine and warm temperatures. By 10 pm the cold front should be entering northwest Wisconsin. A storm here and there is not out of the question with instability becoming increasingly better for storms, as in the MUCAPE forecast to be around 1500 j/kg ahead and along the cold front. A very low freezing level lowering to 7k feet or lower Monday afternoon could mean some small hail.
Skies have cleared out and with light winds and relatively high dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will add a mention of patchy fog after midnight.
High pressure continues, with warm and dry conditions. Smoke and haze from fires across the Pacific Northwest and California will continue to impact the area under the influence of this strong ridge.
334 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will move well northeast of the region today.
Upper ridge remains over the Great Basin with northerly flow aloft over the region. There will be enough moisture trapped beneath the upper ridge for isolated to scattered higher based diurnal convection over and near the mountains. Over the plains, a weak cold front will pass during the morning hours.
With strong high pressure north of the area, we continue with a strong easterly low and mid level flow. As Lidia continues to push off to the northwest and weakens to a remnant low, we will be left with enough moisture circulating around the high and recirculating from the boundary layer to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most of the rest of the week.
Current temps in the low 70s will continue to drop to the mid 60s by dawn Sunday. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure ridge axis will remain wedged into the forecast area from a center over the Tennessee valley.
112 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A cold front will move through from the west tonight.
348 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A weak boundary has continued to linger across the area, but is forecast to diminish today as high pressure builds to the east.
An upper level trough over the region along with a cold front has aided in producing scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some strong. A strong cold front and low pressure system will move southeast toward northern Minnesota on Sunday reaching northwest Minnesota during the afternoon. It will also be warmer with highs ranging from 75 to 80 over eastern areas. Gusty southwest winds will occur and keep parts of the Arrowhead cooler. On its heels, however, a deep trough of low pressure aloft will begin pushing into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will trend much cooler for Labor Day in the wake of the strong cold front accompanying the clipper.
There is a cold frontal boundary but it will likely also mostly slide north of the area. 850 mb temps of 14-17C and 925 mb temps of 20-23C support highs in the lower to possibly some mid 80s.
Farther west under the mid clouds, temps have remained warmer in the mid 60s. However, the lower levels will begin moistening as the southwest flow gets more established over the next several hours. Some small variations in the morning model guidance regarding the speed of the strong cold front, but in general the front should be through most of the CWA by midnight.
400 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 An upper level trough will begin taking shape across the upper Midwest to start the period.
/Issued 322 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017/ With northwest flow aloft and high pressure continuing to build into the region at the surface, dry and cooler weather will persist through the short term.
122 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017/ An upper level short wave trough axis currently overhead will quickly exit the region later this afternoon which will leave the area within an area subsidence behind the short wave. A ridge will be covering the western CONUS with a long wave trough over the eastern CONUS.
204 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Lingering showers will slowly push east out of the area following a retreating low pressure. High pressure will build in for Sunday offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
A pleasant day is then expected, with southern Wisconsin sitting in the northern section of high pressure. Low pressure passing by just to the north will drag a cold front toward the forecast area, reaching the northwest by late tonight. Above normal lows are likely tonight with a mild southwest low level flow ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front will drop south through WI on Monday. The better moisture will arrive with the upper trough Monday evening, so there is a brief chance of showers and low clouds during this period.
High pressure and drier Sunday through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. A continuation of the high PoP low QPF weather as Harvey continues to dissipate over the area. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal. Labor Day is looking like a great day with mostly sunny skies with weak high pressure overhead.
High pressure and drier Sunday through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. A continuation of the high PoP low QPF weather as Harvey continues to dissipate over the area. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal. Linger some POPs into Sunday night as an upper level trough swings through the Great Lakes. Otherwise high pressure leads to a quiet period through Monday, with near normal temperatures. As a cold front approaches from the west Monday night, and have POPs on the increase across southeast Ohio. With more clouds around, overnight lows Monday night will be a bit warmer than normal.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the low to mid 80s. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to slowly drift westward into the Florida Straits and into the Upper Keys as a trough remains positioned across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 The dominant feature remains the high pressure centered over the Great Basin. Models suggest the center of this high will shift a bit east and south today which could explain why convective coverage is so minimal. Not much difference Monday as the high remains overhead. The huge ridge building over the Great Basin and much of the western U.
232 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will move well northeast of the region today.
1131 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central Rockies on Sunday, giving way to a continued period of hot and dry conditions for southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle. The period of very hot/dry weather will be short lived with the models showing a strong cold frontal surge on Monday AM.
643 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will move well northeast of the region today.
324 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
339 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will move well northeast of the region today.
655 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build in today bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures.
MAV temps look reasonable for today so will stay close, but will go a bit under for most low temps tonight using a blend of the MAV and the lower MET numbers.
203 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 An upper level low pressure system across central Texas will weaken and head south-southwest toward the Rio Grande River through tonight. This upper low will interact with a surface boundary to produce diurnal isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the southeast Permian Basin south and southwest toward the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions this afternoon and this evening.
225 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Hot temperatures will be in store for today and especially on Monday as southwest winds bring warmer low-level air into the region. Temperatures could approach triple digits for some locations on Monday as compressional warming/down slope effects occur ahead of approaching cold front.
A large H5 ridge over the western portion of the country is creating a NW upper flow over the Plains region. hot conditions will ensue with upper ridge in place over the west. but a shift in the ridge slightly overnight into Sunday. Southerly winds will set up as well in the lower levels aiding in keeping smoke north of the CWA. At the start of the period, a ridge builds over the western CONUS with a trough to the east, placing the High Plains under northwest flow aloft.