Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front that will move west to east through the region overnight. Cooler conditions will develop on Friday, with continued dry and slightly warmer daytime temperatures over the weekend. An upper low is located over Nevada and will move into Utah overnight, pushing a cold front from west to east across our region overnight. Drier and cooler conditions are expected Friday behind the front.
AFTERNOON UPDATE: Changes to the forecast revolve around getting a little better confidence in timing of when the low pressure center over Southern Manitoba exits eastward. This low pressure system will be the controlling factor in the pressure gradient and therefore winds behind the system and the exit of any wrap around precipitation.
407 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
626 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
340 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 High pressure across much of the eastern half of the country at the surface this afternoon. Weak upper low remains over the Carolinas with upper ridging centered just west of the Mississippi River. Where winds, light as they may be, are not off of the water, temperatures are in the lower 90s. Ridging remains across much of the middle of the country through the weekend.
157 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Weak low pressure will anchor an unsettled weather pattern across the region into Friday. The low will dissipate late this week followed by high pressure building in from the north over the weekend. Temps will peak in the low to mid 80s though it could get a few degrees warmer in spots where sun breaks out. With so little changing to the pattern, we suspect clouds will be prevalent with low temps again in the lower 70s many areas. The longstanding mid and upper low will begin to weaken and be absorbed into the prevailing westerlies to the north on Friday.
324 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Upper level ridging building into the Central US will maintain quiet conditions tonight and tomorrow while temperatures remain well above average. Despite the ridge building in overhead, a subtle backing of the low-level flow will result in temperatures on Friday that are a degree or two cooler than today.
357 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Low pressure over the Carolinas will weaken and move slowly east and eventually offshore by Friday night.
Models remain consistent with the idea of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure maintaining dry weather with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
111 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry into the weekend. Late Friday, and Friday night, a mid-level trough will swing through New England, and push a frontal boundary south across the Upper Ohio Valley.
Mid/upper low across the Carolinas will shear out leaving the region under a weak pressure pattern. An amplified pattern is forecast for the short term, with an upper level trough across the northeast states, an upper low across the intermountain west, and an upper level ridge across the middle of the country and then slowly sliding east into the upper Great Lakes region. Closer to home, a weak upper level trough underneath the upper ridge will be located over southern Georgia Friday night. This trough will cutoff and retrograde slowly westward through the weekend.
352 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Clouds will be on the increase overnight as a cold front moves slowly south from Canada.
an upper trough over the Carolina's will pull some scattered 4kft clouds at TRI. Weak surface ridging will keep winds generally light through the forecast period.
Huntsville/Muscle Shoals are currently at 95/96F, respectively, which is a far cry from the much cooler temperatures usually associated with the Fall season (and the normal values for today which are typically in the lower 80s). An upper ridge currently over the Arklatex region will build eastward while a digging trof over the Ern Canadian provinces will eventually drop SEwrd.
Overview: Afternoon surface analysis reveals front snaking across the tip of the mitt counties, down through Wisconsin and Iowa, to low pressure across the central plains. Tonight: Surface front will sag down into southern lower Michigan through this evening and on into the Ohio Valley through Friday morning, as high pressure and drier air build southward out of Canada. Low stratus and some fog anticipated behind the front through the rest of the night and I can't entirely rule out the possibility of some post frontal showers or some drizzle into Friday morning, particularly with cooler low level air settling into the region and NE flow off Lake Huron. Friday: High pressure and drier air continues to settle into northern Michigan.
Northeast surface flow with dewpoints generally in the low 40s will help keep low levels of the atmosphere dry, and weak echoes over Devils Lake area and northeast SD most likely will be virga and struggle reaching the surface until column saturates more. Northern half of the CWA tonight will enjoy clear skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid 40s while cloudy areas to the south expected to stay in the low to mid 50s.
227 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region by the end of the short term. High pressure aloft will ensure VFR conditions most of the TAF period.
310 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures ranging from the rain cooled lower 80s to the lower 90s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting an episodic band of showers and a few thunderstorms along the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore waters, with isolated showers elsewhere.
346 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
416 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Warm front this afternoon has made it down to about I-80 in Iowa. We will finally get the upper trough to our west out of here by the end of the weekend, but until then we'll have a few more periods of precipitation with which to contend. It appears most activity will be to our north Friday night with the warm front and better isentropic lift located there, although some low PoPs for part of the area are still warranted.
(Issued 1033 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016) Beautiful start to the first day of fall! With high pressure and dry air settling over the region, there is barely a cloud in the sky this morning. Fall or not, highs will be summer-like and end up in the lower to middle 90s. Also lowered dew points a deg or two and they are expected to mix out into the lower 60s/upper 50s in most locations helping keep the heat index down. LN For 18Z TAFs: VFR weather will prevail through the TAF period, as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the weather.
127 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
A pleasant day is expected across western and central North Dakota under a slowly building upper level ridge. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening and tonight far northwest and north central associated with impulses ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest upper low.
Strong low-level upslope flow is well established this morning over the high plains, and stratus/drizzle is becoming more widespread at this time. While 700 millibar temps will be considerably warmer today, thick low-level cloud cover may limit surface heating. Based on this thinking, trended highs below consensus guidance which ends up being quite a bit cooler than the previous forecast. High temps should trend warmer though with more sun.
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The area will remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through Sunday.
Temps still slightly above normal with a tad cooler values for Sunday due to thicker cu field and precip coverage.
Although IFR ceilings will lift by afternoon, a large veil of mid to high cloud cover will keep temperatures a little cooler for a second day with highs in the 70s to mid 80s expected for most of southwest into central KS. Despite lack of upper tropospheric shear/anvil flow, good directional shear in the lowest 6-km may support a few weakly rotating storms.
329 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 (Tonight and Sunday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across West Central Texas again Sunday, with high pressure dominating. An upper level ridge will remain across much of the Southern Plains through the upcoming work week, continuing the hot temperatures. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly during the middle to latter part of the work week, possibly resulting in temperatures a degree or two cooler than is forecast for the start of the week.
A surface analysis this afternoon shows a high pressure ridge extending nearly over the Florida Keys, and winds recently have veered to southwesterly or become variable at many locations. A low-level ridge will vacillate between the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula for the next several days.
1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Quiet weather continues through the short term with a large area of high pressure building from southern Manitoba this morning into central Minnesota by Sunday.
Tonight Through Sunday A series of upper level low pressure troughs in southwest flow will move over western and central Wyoming tonight through Sunday bringing increased clouds showers and thunderstorms.
surface analysis shows a weak area of high pressure over the northern Gulf supporting SW surface flow. Upper level high pressure is quite strong as well and deep moisture seem slower than yesterday.
A cold front across the Ohio River today will be dropping south across KY overnight.
/issued 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front just to the north of the Mid-South.
The numerical models show this wave will trek eastward for a few more hours, before turning northeast by late afternoon, as it rotates around the parent mid-level low/trough over southern vancouver Island. A trough will extend from this low through this period, while gradually deepening. Several small-scale disturbances are expected to traverse the area, as they pivot through the base of the trough. Winds will diminish slightly tonight as the trough pushes inland.
240 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 High pressure centered over Minnesota will build southeast across the Midwest this weekend.
Northeast winds will exist north of the slowly-moving warm front with light southeast winds to the south.
The increased coverage of storms will take the edge off of the recent heat across northeast OK and northwest AR, however still expect enough sun to break out in the afternoon for temps to warm back into at least the low 90s even in area seeing significant rainfall this morning. Medium range models continue to show a more significant break down of the upper ridge just beyond the range of this forecast.
The low level southerly and southwest component of the sea breeze should advect the activity from the Gulf Coast this morning to the interior and east coast metro by this afternoon. With a freezing level above 16,000 feet, the threat of hail remains low. latest satellite loops and model data depict an upper level trough with TUTT characteristics over the eastern Caribbean near Hispaniola, gradually migrating west around the edge of the Atlantic ridge.
559 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will push offshore this evening.
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Today should be a less humid day under light nthrly flow with a slow clearing trend as the cold front that came thru yesterday continues to slowly drift S.
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 High pressure will slowly build into the region for the remainder of the weekend and into the early part of the work week. Convection near the southward moving cold front pulling away from forecast area with drier surface conditions moving into the region as evident by surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s in the northern forecast area. Didn't deviate much from guidance on overnight temperatures, which will be more seasonable with the drier airmass building in with the developing ridge pushing toward the great lakes. Strong ridging to build into the Great Lakes region.
The front itself is just passing through the WV/MD ridges. While dewpoints in Latrobe and Morgantown remain in the lower 70s, a dewpoint of 59 at Franklin represents the drier air moving into the region.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as temps continue to rise and a prefrontal trough shifts winds to become more northwesterly by this afternoon. Temps will be slightly cooler today with the showers/storms across the TN Valley especially east of I-65. West of there temps are still expected to rise into the low/mid 90s with heat index values ~105 so the heat advisory remains in effect for portions of NW AL today.
have the front roughly along the Highway 60 corridor then southwest into southwest Oklahoma. Monsoonal moisture is being pulled up and around the upper level ridge currently situated over the Southern Plains. As the low level jet increases overnight. An upper level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest on Sunday which will have the affect of amplifying the ridge over the Rockies. As this amplified ridge moves into the plains. the surface front will once again move northward and the warmer and more humid air mass will again take over.
with a 500 mb ridge centered over Texas and Oklahoma. a trough along the west coast and a trough from Hudson bay into the Great Lakes region. Surface analysis early this morning showed high pressure in place over the Dakotas and Minnesota down into Nebraska and Iowa.
High pressure will build into the region today as a cold front moves south into the Tennessee Valley. Slightly cooler and less humid air will overspread central Indiana with pleasant weather into the early part of the week. Warmer and more humid weather will return by the middle of the upcoming week along with the threat for scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s North and middle 80s elsewhere this afternoon. Remainder of today will see a gradual yet steady transition to a slightly cooler and less humid airmass as high pressure expands into the region from the north. will see a steady drop in dewpoints into the lower and mid 60s for most of the region by late day.
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front located just north of the mid state this afternoon.
The cool low level thermal trough will linger into Sunday so more CU development expected. Highs look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s with readings a smidge cooler near Lake Michigan due to onshore winds.
Several hi res solutions suggest the clouds from the higher terrain off northern Mi will advance across Se Mi post sunset underneath the deep inversion, likely delaying nocturnal clearing until later into the evening or overnight. Slightly milder and notably less humid airmass will settle over the area through the weekend as high pressure builds southeast from the northern plains/Canadian Prairie Provinces within northwest flow regime in wake of mean upper trough axis now progressing gradually off to the east.
656 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front looks to be situated across the central portion of the forecast area this evening with clearing to the north of the boundary. The cold front continues to slowly sag south into the Commonwealth and is pretty well defined at this time with the back edge of the cumulus and radar returns from near or to the south of the OH River. The drier air and cooler airmass will move into the northern section of the area tonight and into Sunday, but the drier air will be slower to move to locations further south. Models in generally good agreement through the upcoming week with upper level ridging over the eastern US.
304 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 NW flow aloft firmly established over Upper Great Lakes in wake of upper low that moved north of the region in last 24-36 hrs.
247 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Scattered showers and a few storms have developed around the mtns this afternoon as moisture and instability have increased with warmer temps.
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 An upper level trough will move through Eastern Canada on Sunday.
Tonight Through Sunday Night Cooler temperatures are over the area with overturning from thunderstorms and additional cloud cover.
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will push offshore this evening.
Lows overnight are generally in the low to middle 60s. Mid level moisture convergence centers across central and north central Kansas then gradually weakens through the morning as the low level jet weakens.
Stubborn mid-level anticyclone continues to anchor over North and East TX this weekend. The ridge will wobble clockwise from NW Tx into SE Tx over the next 36 hours, creating enhanced subsidence over the Coastal Prairies and diffluent surface winds over South Central Tx.
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The cold front continues to slowly sag south into the Commonwealth and is pretty well defined at this time with the back edge of the cumulus and radar returns from near or to the south of the OH River. The drier air and cooler airmass will move into the northern section of the area tonight and into Sunday, but the drier air will be slower to move to locations further south. Models in generally good agreement through the upcoming week with upper level ridging over the eastern US.
A mid/upper level low pressure system continues to spin near the Pac NW today. Some locations that received significant cooling yesterday, especially those benefiting from the marine cooled air in the SJ Valley, are running a degree or so warmer so far today. The next impulse rotating around the low will pass through northern/central California tonight and bring a reinforcing cooling shot to our area. Additional energy tracking around the low will keep the troughy pattern over the west coast for the next few days and maintain the dry conditions, with an onshore flow keeping our temperatures at or slightly below climo.
expansive upper ridge had retrograded just enough westward today that we will be under the influence of weak northerly flow aloft across our northern and eastern terminal locations.
A closed upper level low was located just off the central Vancouver Island coast this afternoon.
May see some sun peak out late in the day across the west/north with temps nearing 80, otherwise temps topping out only in the lower to mid 70s. A weak disturbance rides across the region Sunday night however models favor KS with some instability however will have to monitor the low level jet.
Temperatures will only climb to the low 80s this afternoon, with even a few points in NW Missouri staying in the upper 70s. Dew points in the low 60s will make for a pleasant Saturday afternoon compared to recent trends over the past week.
317 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front has pushed south to near the Red River this afternoon with scattered showers/thunderstorms starting to develop near boundary.
1030 AM PDT Sat Aug 6 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move into the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Concur with deterministic output that the upper ridge will remain quasi-stationary over the Region during the period.
451 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The major synoptic features across the region continue to be a trough of low pressure across the northeast Gulf. Current water vapor imagery indicates a slow Northwest drift of the upper level low currently.
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 214 PM CDT Late this afternoon: High pressure centered across the Upper Midwest stretching south through the Central Plains, which is allowing a light gradient over Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana this afternoon. Closer to the Lake temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer in the middle/upper 60s. Sunday: High pressure continues to influence the region, which will allow a light and variable surface wind once again to start the day. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s, and around 80 for areas adjacent to Lake Michigan.
/issued 949 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Forecast area today is in between an upper level ridge centered over west Texas and an upper level trough building down from the southeastern US into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. /issued 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Low to mid level ridging is expected to remain centered near the Red River/ARKLATEX for the next several days, while the ridge aloft continues to gradually erode.
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Cold front slides through the region today. High pressure Sunday.
Isolated showers will develop across the coastal sections of the CWA as the seabreeze front develops along the lower TX coast and moves inland this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture will continue to increase across the western Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico even as the 500mb ridge across the south central United States continues to provide subsidence across the state. With the increase in surface dewpoints across the lower Rio Grande valley today.
As ridge slowly builds in more today, expect another seasonal day with ample sunshine and more diurnal cumulus forming.
331 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 High pressure will continue to hang on to the area through tomorrow, though it will begin to ease just slightly across our western zones. It doesn't appear this ridge will give enough to allow the monsoonal plume to enter back into the region quite yet.
/issued 1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016/ Upper low to remain over northern FL for the next couple of days and combined with the very warm and moist environment in place will continue to allow for abundant rainfall especially over the Nature Coast. South to southwest flow across the waters will continue through mid-week with the high pressure ridge axis across south Florida.
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Upper level analysis has upper ridge over the central CONUS with closed low over Vancouver Island off the Washington coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across southern Minnesota with breezy east-southeast boundary layer flow across much of the area. It will also be a bit warmer, with highs in the 80s across the plains, some 70s across the Black Hills. There looks to be at least a little better chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening across northeast WY and the Black Hills compared to today as moisture and instability increases, and southwest flow develops behind slowly exiting ridge. The upper level trough/low will remain over the western CONUS into the middle of the week.
630 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 The area will remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through Sunday.
113 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 High pressure and dry air continue to build into the Western Great Lakes this morning. Northern MI finds itself influenced by stacked low pressure in far northern Quebec, and high pressure extending from central Canada to the upper MS valley. The high will exert a stronger influence as we move forward, veering winds a bit more northerly in response by tonight. Our airmass will otherwise tend to dry out steadily, as high pressure builds into the upper MS valley.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest and northern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight as high pressure slowly moves into the Great Lakes. Dry high pressure will have the influence over the forecast area beginning Sunday and stretching into the first part of the work week.
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 High pressure will bring cooler and much less humid conditions this weekend.
A broad area of high pressure will bring quiet weather conditions through the weekend.
/Today/ High pressure will be centered over the state today and looks to provide another dry and pleasant day. Went completely dry through the afternoon hours and nudged up high temperatures a degree or two and leaned closer to the slightly warmer GFS for temperatures.
626 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 An upper level trough will move through Eastern Canada on Sunday.