Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broad low pressure will cover the eastern two thirds of the U. and Canada with strong blocking high pressure over the western U. CO and UT will remain under the northwest flow between the trough and ridge.
/Issued 339 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019/ Warmer temps return today with breezy southerly winds developing.
459 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite showed a southwest to northeast oriented trough over the Southwest, while zonal flow existed over Texas. Meanwhile, with a little stronger southwest flow in the low levels and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge, expect continued warming today and tonight, with highs reaching the upper 60s/low 70s and lows tonight reaching the upper 40s.
A warm front will bring a chance of rain to areas along and north of the toll road tonight into Monday.
Otherwise, a very stable pattern due to high pressure off the West Coast will remain for the next several days keeping mild temperatures and dry weather conditions. Some clouds towards S CA due to a weak stationary trough near the the Channel Islands.
319 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Breezy and warmer conditions will prevail across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s. Despite limited sunshine, low-level WAA will help boost afternoon highs into the lower to middle 50s.
Several terminals are experiencing and will continue to experience MVFR conditions throughout the next couple hours as the low clouds begin to lift. Cold front will start to push away this morning as humidity will start to go on the rise and will remain well above critical levels.
404 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Upper level trough currently over the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic will be progressing eastward, leaving the area under zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure will be building over the southern CONUS.
Highs today have already reached the low 70s in Amarillo, with most areas seeing very little in the way of cloud cover and relatively light winds. While winds are remaining fairly light, whatever winds we do have will be bending to the north and northeast overnight, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures to filter into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday.
As high pressure system continues to shift east. gradually moistening the lower levels and continuing a moderating trend in temperatures. Some of the higher resolution guidance is hinting at even a few streamer showers over the Gulf very late tonight.
Might see a few flakes mix in overnight across the Buffalo Ridge, but little to no accumulation is expected as precipitation chances diminish.
1037 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Currently - Mid and upper level ridge is in place over the Gulf of Mexico and extends eastward over Florida. This has prevented a long wave trough, which sits across the eastern one-third of the U. In addition, the effects of this ridge was evident in the 12Z RAOB sounding this morning with a dry layer present in the 925-750 mb layer. There still remains quite a bit of shower activity in the extreme SE Gulf waters, the Lower Keys and surrounding waters, and the western Straits.
With similar thermal profiles, bumped up high temperatures to the low-mid 60s, due to persistence, & lowered afternoon dewpoints. With high pressure overhead and light winds, there is a chance for some frost this morning. Highs will be in the lower 60s generally. Tonight, the high will continue to push off to the north and east, leaving the region on the western side. This will allow southerly winds to bring moisture back into the region and allow for warmer overnight lows. Readings should drop to the lower 40s across most locations, though some upper 30s may still be possible in the north closest to the high center.
As the base of the trough passes through tonight, winds at the 850 millibar level, within 2000 feet of the ground, will increase to around 30 knots out of the west above mainly KLBB; should remain just below Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) criteria.
An even warmer day is expected today, but the south winds will become gusty this afternoon especially across northeast Oklahoma. Highs will top out in the lower 60s for most areas this afternoon.
Main weather feature to talk about in the short term will be a weak cold front moving in throughout tonight into the morning on Monday which will give us slightly cooler temperatures and a few mid level clouds mainly along the I-70 corridor by sunrise Monday morning.
/issued 404 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019/ Upper level trough currently over the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic will be progressing eastward, leaving the area under zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure will be building over the southern CONUS.
1047 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 Northwest flow aloft over the area again today, with ridge along the West Coast and upper wave sliding from the nrn Rockies this morning into the upper Midwest overnight.
High pressure will build to the north through Monday, as an inverted trough develops just off the Atlantic coast. The combination of a moist onshore flow and the presence of the trough will increase cloud cover, with a chance for showers Monday afternoon near the coast.
1235 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Chilly high pressure will build over the region this evening before sliding offshore early Monday. While some of the usual cool spots did reach or briefly dip below freezing this morning across the northern and western Piedmont zones, we've elected to continue the Frost/Freeze program and growing season across the entire CWA. With high pressure moving overhead, expect plenty of sun and decreasing cool northerly surface flow for the remainder of the day. Chilly high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley early today will move east to a position over NC/VA tonight. With the high pressure expected to be overhead tonight. High pressure will move offshore early Monday. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 60s.
/issued 203 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019/ A series of progressive cold air pockets spinning off the North Pole continues to reinforce the east coast trough. What this means for us is East Northeast winds on the bottom of the ridge and a return of warmth and moisture.
313 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 High pressure stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley to New England will provide us with another quiet night. With the center of the high off to our east and south lows Monday morning won't be quite as cold as the last couple of mornings, with most lows in the 30s instead of the 20s. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will approach 60 in southern Indiana and the lower 60s in central Kentucky. Updated at 309 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Monday night, an upper trough will sit above the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, a very weak cold front will sit just northwest of southern Indiana.
A cold front will push through the forecast area late tonight, turning winds northwesterly and advecting slightly cooler air into the region. With dense mid/upper level cloud cover and the CAA, expect highs on Monday to be nearly 10 degrees cooler in the lower to middle 50s.
1000 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 The main concern with the forecast will be a cold front moving through the region Sunday. An upper trough extending from Washington state to New England will remain in place through the day Sunday. The trough will make little eastward progress through the day. Monday will be a cooler day with a weak front moving through the region. A longwave trough continues to be present over the Plains. During this time there will be several short wave troughs that will move through the flow over the forecast area.
Northwest flow aloft will continue today as an upper ridge remains off the west coast. Skies will be mostly clear with some high clouds, temperatures will be slightly warmer, and winds will be light. An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for the lower valleys.
1024 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 Current surface map shows broad area of low pressure across the North Dakota with trof/warm front across eastern South Dakota.
235 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 (Tonight and Monday) Sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow afternoon. For tonight, expect low temperatures to be a touch warmer than this morning, in the upper 40s to low 50s.
347 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Currently - Mid and upper level ridge remains in place over the Gulf of Mexico and extends eastward over Florida. This is preventing a long wave trough, which sits across the eastern one- third of the U. In addition, the effects of this ridge were evident in the 12Z RAOB sounding this morning with a dry layer present in the 925-750 mb layer. This trough has since moved westward. Otherwise, across the island chain skies are mostly sunny over the Middle and Upper Keys with partly cloudy skies in the Lower Keys.
1230 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry conditions expected through Monday under high pressure with more seasonable temperatures tomorrow.
Flow around the high pressure across the southeast will become a little more east northeasterly as opposed to northeasterly and low temperatures will not be a cool as compared to last night. A weak inverted trough will move into our coastal waters overnight with a slight chance of rain offshore with land areas remaining dry.
Modestly warmer temperatures aloft and minimal opaque cloud cover will allow temperatures to slowly climb each of the next 2-3 days. The upper low currently positioned just off the northern Baja coast will continue to draw moisture north through Arizona early this week. At this time not anticipating more than a modest increase in cloud cover near the Arizona/Utah border as the deformation axis associated with the low remains over northern Arizona.
258 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 A sprawling high pressure system reaching from the Ohio Valley down into the lower Mississippi Valley continues to edge east away from the area this afternoon. By Monday afternoon the cold front will be moving through the bi- state region. Southerly winds ahead of the front will continue to advect warmer temperatures into the CWA through most of the day Monday, giving some relief from the recent cold spell with near normal temperatures.
High pressure will continue to be the main influencer over our weather pattern today as clear and sunny conditions are expected. The high pressure system currently over the Tennessee valley is expected to slide east into the mid-atlantic states throughout the day today, which will start to transition our surface winds from northerly to northeasterly to eventually easterly by late tonight.
A weak storm system is producing light rain from near Mobridge to Miller and points southwest. Steep low level lapse rates leave little chance for any freezing rain so kept that out of the forecast for now. Surface cold front passes through on Monday, bringing down our temps to start the work week.
Additionally, the patchy freezing fog has all but dissipated as well, so the SPS will expire at 9 am.
A dry northern stream cold front will be heading south toward the northern Permian Basin late Monday afternoon but should have minimal impact on high temperatures with cooler air lagging the front until evening.
208 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 A warm front will bring a chance of rain to areas along and north of the toll road tonight into Monday.
1030 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 A weak storm system is producing light rain from near Mobridge to Miller and points southwest. Steep low level lapse rates leave little chance for any freezing rain so kept that out of the forecast for now. Surface cold front passes through on Monday, bringing down our temps to start the work week.
230 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Plenty of sunshine and breezy conditions in between the departing high pressure and the next system to the northwest.
Colder temperatures on tap in the wake of the passing cold front.
The later arrival of higher dew points means that evening temps should cool faster and could lead to min Monday morning temps a degree or two cooler than projected by blended guidances, which had trended warmer in recent runs.
953 AM PST Sun Nov 3 2019 Weak low pressure aloft and weak onshore flow will help to build the marine layer early this week, bringing some relief from the very dry conditions. The low will move slowly east by midweek as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
339 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry and slightly warmer weather is expected on Monday under high pressure.
203 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 A series of progressive cold air pockets spinning off the North Pole continues to reinforce the east coast trough. What this means for us is East Northeast winds on the bottom of the ridge and a return of warmth and moisture.
For those that got to enjoy an "extra" hour of sleep this morning, you might have missed cooler temperatures across Lake and Volusia. Cloud bases across the sites observing clouds are in the range of 030-045, keeping conditions at the low end of VFR.
216 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 A surface cold front is currently sweeping from north to south across the state in the wake of an earlier northeastward propagating warm front.
200 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 Current surface map has an area of low pressure over northeastern North Dakota, with a cold front extending westward into northern Montana. Aloft, there is a ridge over the eastern Pacific with a trough over the Ohio River Valley associated with a Hudson Bay low. For tonight, cold front drops through the forecast area, as the wave passes over northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and southwestern South Dakota. Northwest flow aloft continues through the week as the low level baroclinic zone impacts the forecast area.
Otherwise, high pressure will keep the region dry over the next several days with temperatures continuing to climb this week.
Latest surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeastern U. with a low pressure over the Dakotas.
High pressure will keep things cool and dry through the first half of the week.
600 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected on Monday under high pressure.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 60 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 61 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 61 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0.
406 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Latest surface analysis showed a 1024mb high over Ohio Valley with associated ridge axis to Louisiana. Upper air analysis showed a deep low just south of Hudson Bay with the main trough across the eastern half of CONUS. In addition, several disturbances were located on the back side of the main trough. An upper level low was located over southern California. Upper level trough will remain over eastern CONUS as several disturbances on the back side diving southeast.
Several of the convective allowing models are breaking out some convection (just showers) along the cold front in the afternoon.
A persistent and stagnant pattern will continue with a ridge of high pressure over the region but centered off the coast.
821 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight and much of Monday, under the influence of a weak area of high pressure.
A large area of high pressure extends from Texas arcoss the gulf states. This area of high pressure is expected to drift slowly to the east through the middle of the week with temperatures gradually warming through the period.
601 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Radar reflectivities at 00Z showed an area of rain moving through the James River valley counties, aided by a cold front and baroclinic zone currently located across southern North Dakota. Though with the loss of frontogenetical forcing with the exit of the cold front, coverage and accumulations will be light. A surface cold front is currently sweeping from north to south across the state in the wake of an earlier northeastward propagating warm front.
A cold front trailing this system will push southeastward across central IL during the day Monday, bringing back some slightly cooler temperatures for the upcoming few days.
A weak east wind will turn north to northeast at less than 12 on Monday as a weak cold front moves across the area. Highs today have already reached the low 70s in Amarillo, with most areas seeing very little in the way of cloud cover and relatively light winds. While winds are remaining fairly light, whatever winds we do have will be bending to the north and northeast overnight, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures to filter into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday.
High pressure stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley to New England will provide us with another quiet night. With the center of the high off to our east and south lows Monday morning won't be quite as cold as the last couple of mornings, with most lows in the 30s instead of the 20s. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will approach 60 in southern Indiana and the lower 60s in central Kentucky. Updated at 309 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Monday night, an upper trough will sit above the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, a very weak cold front will sit just northwest of southern Indiana.
526 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Plenty of sunshine and breezy conditions in between the departing high pressure and the next system to the northwest.
A weak cold front will progress slowly over terminals tonight and tomorrow, with gradual wind shifts from southeast to north-northeast.
251 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored off of the Pacific Northwest coast with a weak cutoff low near southern California. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than this morning's lows due to the high clouds. Expect dry conditions with slightly warmer temperatures on Monday. The ridge axis will slowly shift east over the western US and remain over the western states through the weekend.
556 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 A sprawling high pressure system reaching from the Ohio Valley down into the lower Mississippi Valley continues to edge east away from the area this afternoon. By Monday afternoon the cold front will be moving through the bi- state region. Southerly winds ahead of the front will continue to advect warmer temperatures into the CWA through most of the day Monday, giving some relief from the recent cold spell with near normal temperatures.
By Wed, unseasonably cold air will be the main feature; the entire time will still be below early Nov averages, with reinforcements coming after the mid week snow chance, as Canadian high pressure intrudes.
Have added some low pops for the far northeast plains and over the higher mountain passes for Monday. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with readings back into the 40s across the plains.
Thereafter high pressure will persist across central Idaho and valleys of west central and northwest Montana resulting in continued hazy skies with limited visibility at times.
427 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 Current surface map has an area of low pressure over northeastern North Dakota, with a cold front extending westward into northern Montana. Aloft, there is a ridge over the eastern Pacific with a trough over the Ohio River Valley associated with a Hudson Bay low. For tonight, cold front drops through the forecast area, as the wave passes over northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and southwestern South Dakota. Northwest flow aloft continues through the week as the low level baroclinic zone impacts the forecast area.
425 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored off of the Pacific Northwest coast with a weak cutoff low near southern California. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than this morning's lows due to the high clouds. Expect dry conditions with slightly warmer temperatures on Monday. The ridge axis will slowly shift east over the western US and remain over the western states through the weekend.
A weak cold front will move across the northern terminals Monday afternoon, shifting winds to a light northerly direction in its wake. /issued 235 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019/ (Tonight and Monday) Sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow afternoon. For tonight, expect low temperatures to be a touch warmer than this morning, in the upper 40s to low 50s.
625 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 A warm front will bring a chance of rain to areas along and north of the toll road tonight into Monday.
920 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected on Monday under high pressure.
These clouds will likely serve to slow down cooling during the night; however, temps have already quickly dipped into the upper 30s in some of the cooler pockets in the NE portion of the area, where fewer clouds exist.
Typically, when we have this type of pattern in place and a weak inverted trough headed west, moisture will gradually increase overnight and this will either completely stop the temperature drop or even induce a slight rise in temperatures toward sunrise. Current forecast has accounted for this well, so only made a few adjustments in Southeast Alabama to account for the cooler temperatures at this hour.
137 PM PST Sun Nov 3 2019 Weak low pressure aloft and weak onshore flow will help to build the marine layer early this week, bringing some relief from the very dry conditions. The low will move slowly east by midweek as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the week ahead as high pressure builds over the West.
Temperatures tonight will be a couple degrees warmer than last night with upper flow flattening out.
Finally, cooler maximum temperatures on the order of approximately 7F to 14F degrees should be noted over many eastern locations Monday afternoon.
However, a cold front will move through tomorrow morning.
644 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 High pressure builds in over the mid-Atlantic states, while a stalled front continues to stretch across southwest Florida. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures can be expected on Monday. Interaction between a stalled frontal boundary over southwest Florida and high pressure building over the mid-Atlantic states will produce gusty winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday afternoon.
Nighttime temperatures are slowly rising as well and only the coldest inland locations are expected to get near freezing.
1207 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 A warm front will bring a chance of rain to areas along and north of the toll road tonight into Monday.
A positively tilted trough sits over the Eastern Pacific, just off the Southern California coast. A few isolated areas in the North Bay Valleys and far Southern Monterey County will flirt near freezing, but widespread upper 30s and low 40s can be expected across the Bay Area. The upper level ridge over the Northeastern Pacific will shift southward and strengthen, in doing so act to kick the upper level trough eastward by mid week. As the ridge builds, higher pressure can be expected near the surface. Most importantly, however, the building ridge will keep the dry air mass firmly in place, keeping any precipitation out of the forecast. High pressure will maintain clear skies and relatively light winds. SFO Bridge Approach. Light to occasionally moderate northwest winds will persist through early in the week as high pressure remains over the Eastern Pacific.
/ISSUED 608 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019/ Weak ridging inland maintaining light east or southeasterly flow tonight with a slow steady increase in lower level moisture as mid and upper levels moisten up more quickly. As high pressure system continues to shift east. gradually moistening the lower levels and continuing a moderating trend in temperatures. Some of the higher resolution guidance is hinting at even a few streamer showers over the Gulf very late tonight.
Some patchy areas of light rain/drizzle may also be possible within the low clouds for Northwest Arkansas late afternoon/evening Monday.
1022 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored off of the Pacific Northwest coast with a weak cutoff low near southern California. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than this morning's lows due to the high clouds. Expect dry conditions with slightly warmer temperatures on Monday. The ridge axis will slowly shift east over the western US and remain over the western states through the weekend.