Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THERE WERE VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. BUT CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AS THE FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BUILD UP SNOWFALL TOTALS.
The semi-permanent closed low in the upper Great Lakes and eastern Canada will serve to phase in, then shear out two minor waves ejected from the closed low off the Southern California/Northern Baja region. Despite the mechanism of system movement, these features actually channel differential vorticity into Kansas and into the Ozarks in advance of the low/trough on Sunday.
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY THAT WAS NOT COVERED EARLIER AS IT APPEARS AT LEAST OUTLYING AREAS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING THERE.
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STATE WITH NE WINDS OF 5 TO JUST OVER 10 KTS NE OF THIS FRONT. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS SAT MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL START LIFTING BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY. WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS WEST OF I65 STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
A cold front will work through the region tomorrow.
400 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR DEEP E TX IN THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AREA AND NEAR LAKE SAM RAYBURN. THE COLD FRONT MARCHES NW TO SE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND NE LA AND ENDS THE RAINFALL AS WELL.
THIS FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTH TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH READINGS IN THE WEST WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.
424 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BUT WITH SN OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/ IFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA TODAY AND BRING COOLER AIR AND LOW CLOUDS WITH IT. AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT, A MIX OF RAIN SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
352 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION.
1102 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER AS OF 18Z LOCATED NEAR ABQ AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF NM BEFORE 06Z SAT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NE NM LATE MORNING WITH MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND INCREASING SN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. BUT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
THERE WAS SOME THOUGHT DURING THE MAIN EVENT THE FREEZING LEVELS MIGHT DROP ENOUGH TO BE SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES.
333 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 MID LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOSER TO THE LOWEST END OF GUIDANCE SPECTRUM THOUGH NOT QUITE AS EXTREME AS RAW CANADIAN MODEL NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.
1149 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 BROAD AND LARGELY UNFOCUSED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A SMALLER SCALE VORTEX SPINNING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KFSD AREA ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LOCALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. LIKELY NOT A GREAT DEAL FURTHER FOR MAIN SNOW BAND TO PIVOT WESTWARD AS TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY MID MORNING. AREAS WEST OF THE BETTER SNOW BAND HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LACK OF DEEPER SATURATION FAILING TO INTRODUCE ICE. WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
1102 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.
257 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN ENDING. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISVILLE/CINCINNATI TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS BORDER.
327 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ABQ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY AND THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY IT WILL ALLOW FOR CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES.
A cold front will move south across the northern terminals tonight, shifting winds to the northwest. The cold front will move through the southern terminals Saturday morning. A cold front will move south across the northern terminals tonight, shifting winds to the northwest. A short wave trough will skirt across the southern Rockies today and across the southern Plains tonight. This system will drag a cold front south across the area overnight and will usher in colder temperatures for Saturday. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s.
1256 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A PRESSURE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
Brief ridging will traverse the area overnight. For Saturday and Saturday night, a low pressure system will eject out of the Lower Mississippi basin. As the low starts to move off to the northeast Saturday night it will swing a strong cold front through.
MVFR IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT KBZN TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ARE MATCHING THE HIGHS REACHED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN.
118 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
FOG NEVER CLEARED NEAR THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
WEAK BAND OF COOLER TOPS MOVG WWD WERE NOTED OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY BUT SO FAR IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE DOING MORE THAN PRODUCING FLURRIES. MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A LITTLE DOWNWIND. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A QUIETER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
337 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
A PIECE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH AXIS BRIEFLY FLOURISHED THIS MORNING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER 70S(!).
A LOW OVERCAST & NW 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT IN THE 30-40F RANGE WITH THE WARMER READINGS NO DOUBT RESIDING IN EXTREME SE KS. TONIGHT-SAT: THE WEAK MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NM WILL PUSH E OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THEN TRANSITION INTO A BROAD SHORT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.
MOSTLY DRY TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BUT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.
MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A LITTLE DOWNWIND. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A QUIETER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
1126 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 THE MSL ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK. BY SUN EARLY MORNING 850 MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RVR VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO COMBINE WITH NEAR CALM WINDS FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY FALL QUICKLY TO THESE LOWS THEN HOLD STEADY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST.
EXPECT S TO SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION TNGT/EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA TNGT/EARLY SATURDAY AND RESULT IN DRYING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH APPEARS TO BE RE- INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE NORTHERN RATON RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NE FL.
THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROF THIS EVENING WILL ALSO DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. THE RIDGING WITH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE SEE THE RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE STATE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO. BEFORE POPS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND (LATE WEDS/THUR) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. 41 PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL 1-3AM UNTIL A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES THRU THE WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS TROF. COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SAT MORNING.
415 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
1252 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT MARCHES NW TO SE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND NE LA AND ENDS THE RAINFALL AS WELL.
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS NIGHTTIME LOWS TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND DAYTIME HIGHS THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR SO COOLER.
LOW CLOUDS BLANKET ALABAMA THIS MORNING DUE TO A SHALLOW INVERSION CAUSED BY COOLER EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 1500 FEET AGL.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY BUT MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME FOG DURING THAT TIME. SEVERAL AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE LOW LAYER COOLING OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE OF THESE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM DUE TO LOWERING DEW POINTS WITH A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
326 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO DALLAS- FORT WORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING NEAR DALLAS. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM THIS DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WILL HELP ENHANCE HELICITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ROUGHLY AROUND 00Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH COOL AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY TONIGHT WILL CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BTR AT ABOUT 7AM SAT MORNING AND FINISH MOVING THROUGH PQL BY NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT WILL BE BACK BY SAT EVENING AROUND DARK AS THE 700MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. CLEARING WILL BEGIN SUN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS AND WE WILL SEE THE NORMAL STRATOCU DECK FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
348 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE PRECIP HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALREADY IN PLACE IS A BACK DOOR PASSIVE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT FUN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND SO HAS THE LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGES AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT BEING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AROUND THIS TIME THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED AROUND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
335 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEHIND A CROSSING WARM FRONT.
308 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND BRING A STEADY FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAIN COULD POSSIBLY MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TOWARD SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS DUE TO ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
PREFRONTAL TROF WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT MOSTLY ENDING THE THREAT. THAT SAID WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RATHER POTENT JET STREAM COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW OVER THE S ROCKIES.
A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS HAS ENVELOPED MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MORNING FOG HAD DISSIPATED. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN TEXAS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE RANCHLANDS WITH LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY.
1003 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AN UPDATE TO EXPIRING FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES YESTERDAY WAS NEARING THE KANSAS CITY AREA. WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF INTEREST OVER THE UT/AZ BORDER. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. BOTH AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND AS INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW STARTS TO INCREASE MIXING. THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SNOW EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NM TODAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.
235 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 A small but potent upper level trough is moving across New Mexico today, and will pass north of our CWA tonight. Despite a slow start, winds have been increasing in the Guadalupe Mountains the last couple of hours and strong winds are still expected this afternoon so will keep the High Wind Warning going through 7pm MT. A cold front will follow the departing upper low cooling temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees for the weekend.
224 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016 RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGING SNOW TO COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE TROUGH BASE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY 6Z. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS.
351 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) A strong upper level trough over New Mexico will move east across the Southern Plains tonight and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the area tonight. For Saturday, the cold front will exit the area by mid morning.
/ISSUED 1003 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/ HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AN UPDATE TO EXPIRING FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES YESTERDAY WAS NEARING THE KANSAS CITY AREA. WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF INTEREST OVER THE UT/AZ BORDER. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. BOTH AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH AND AS INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW STARTS TO INCREASE MIXING. THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SNOW EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NM TODAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.
142 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A PRESSURE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
454 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
Water vapor imagery reveals an upper low spinning over the 4 Corners region. A warm front will develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and advance toward the coast.
BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE LOW END ONCE AGAIN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENERGY KICKS OUT AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY. A 90+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER, DRIER AIR SETTLED IN FOR ONE MORE DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALSO AID IN ESTABLISHING A CAP TO PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE LOW 90S. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) THIS AFTERNOON'S SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA AS WELL AS THE LATEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A FAIRLY DECENT THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A KTVK-KUIN AXIS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT.
330 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FRONT WILL KEEP T/S IN THE LOWER 90S. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS AS THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR IMPACTING OUR WEATHER BUT THE GRIP HAS WEAKENED JUST A BIT. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS STILL OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION BUT THE WESTERN EDGE HAD WEAKENED A BIT AS SHOWN BY HEIGHTS BEING A BIT LOWER. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO TWEAK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE HOWEVER AS STORMS BATTLE THE DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES TO THE WEST AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
The upper trough along the eastern U. coast continues to shift east and dampen, allowing the upper ridge centered across TX to build a little more into the CWA. Through the near term, the CWA remains on the eastern edge of this upper ridge. Based on this, have continued the highest PoPs across the southern marine zones.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CAP MOST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE NAM BEING ON THE HIGH END AND THE GFS BEING ON THE LOW END. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT POP AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MOVE NE TO EAST AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE TERRAIN IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER AREA BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
259 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2015 Another warm and humid day is underway across the region this afternoon, with mid afternoon temperatures within a few degrees of 90, and dewpoints in the low 70s.
236 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 UPPER HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL BE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER INFLUENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WESTERN KOOCHICHING/ITASCA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
315 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO PENN FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR OTTAWA ONTARIO WILL COMBINE WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND NEAR RECORD LOW PWATS FOR MID SUMMER TO BRING NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AZURE BLUE SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S /OR 5-10F WARMER THAN THU MORNING/. TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE DAY THANKS TO THE VERY LIGHT SRLY WIND.
319 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING IT DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FRI AFTERNOON WITH WARM MOIST AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE, AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SLIDE EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE BOTH OUR MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.