Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT CLEARING EVERYTHING OUT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BASES COULD LOWER TO THE HIGH END OF MVFR.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HAS STARTED TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST. NOT A LOT OF RISING MOTION IN THAT LOWEST LAYER HOWEVER SO WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. STILL NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF OMEGA IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FZDZ AND FLURRY MENTION GOING FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
438 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT.
CIRRUS RETURNING OVERNIGHT WITH NE SFC WINSDS 5 TO 10KTS WITH SAME UP THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND UP INTO THE MIDLEVELS ONLY AROUND 10-20KTS TO 10KFT.
OTHER CLOUD COVER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WAS THE WESTWARD PUSH/EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY EAST OF THE HILL CITY AREA. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. PLAN TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THAT AREA.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY HAS MIXED OUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. BUT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS EVEN LIGHT. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN CAN CREATE ISSUES FOR TRAVEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR.
/issued 245 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough has made landfall on the west coast, and tilting negatively inland. Ahead of this feature, SW flow aloft was noted over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as the region is under the western side of a ridge extending across Texas. Yesterday's cold front has kept temps below yesterday's, although high clouds ahead of the next system, a lingering snowpack over SE NM/the NW Permian Basin, and stratus over the Rio Grande Valley are doing their part to keep temps down, as well. Everything is still shaping up for a minor winter event overnight over the Guadalupes and SE NM as the west coast trough approaches. Latest models bring precip into the NW zones after 06Z Tuesday, when sfc temps will be at or blo freezing there.
/ISSUED 211 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.
310 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1226 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
315 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1140 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WILL DEPART ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
1138 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. EXPECT MINS UP NORTH TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. TO THE LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
THE LOWEST SEEN HERE SINCE EARLY LAST SPRING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACTUALLY IS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. A COMBINATION OF HIGH-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BONA FIDE QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING WAVE CYCLONE OVER THE BAHAMAS SHOULD RESULT IN AN OUTBREAK OF RAIN.
THE MSL PLOT SHOWED A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE EASTERN PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 06Z. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH 35 TO 40 IN THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO ENERGY ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE REGION.
Low level moisture trapped underneath an area of high pressure has kept skies mostly cloudy during the afternoon. As high pressure exits the region, winds turn to the south and increase tomorrow between 10 and 15 mph sustained. This will help lift and scatter the stratus deck somewhat, allowing highs to be much warmer near 40 degrees.
ALREADY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUNCHED INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AND THIS HAS CLEARED THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. HI-RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE SITUATION QUITE WELL AND ALL OF THEM CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPS 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY'S HIGHS HOWEVER.
1132 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois overnight as a ridge of high pressure crosses the area. This will allow temperatures to fall a few degrees cooler than the past couple nights, but overnight lows are still expected to be above normal for early January. As ridge axis pushes east across the state, winds will trend toward the southeast after midnight. Most locations should fall into the lower 20s overnight, but some teens likely across the I-74 corridor.
357 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL SHIFT EAST WITH QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SECONDARY RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
345 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
309 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 COLD MORNING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AS OF 08Z HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. ADD A 4-8 MPH WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST AND IT FEELS EVEN COOLER OUTSIDE.
DIFFERENCE CONTINUE IN THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING OVERNIGHT. NAM12 BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
/ISSUED 310 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OR UNFORTUNATELY MORE LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FORM ON THE CAPROCK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. WE EXPECT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLEARLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY. THE TRICKY PART IS DETERMINING THE PHASE OF SUCH PRECIP AS A LACK OF GOOD REINFORCING COLD AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE INCLUDED AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE DREADED FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST ALLOWING WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS SHOULD HELP SCOUR THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT ON TUESDAY AND WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 45 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 21 41 20 45 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 22 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 16 39 12 47 / 10 0 0 0.
/issued 335 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, we have ridging aloft, with a trough in southern CA and AZ moving east toward Texas. At the surface, ridging centered near the Great Lakes will shift to the southeast into New England through tomorrow, shifting our winds from light and variable or northeasterly to southeast by Tuesday morning. As the upper level trough approaches through tomorrow, low level winds will become more organized out of the south, increasing moisture. Mid and upper level clouds will also increase as lift moves in with the trough. With the additional cloud-cover, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow as far as afternoon highs, but slightly warmer tonight with increasing clouds and southeasterly winds picking up.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE DOWNRIGHT COLD WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EASILY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S.
1232 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
249 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BUT HIGHS WILL BE 5-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THANKS TO ABOUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 40S.
448 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST.
1030 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
140 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) It's a pretty chilly morning with high pressure and low dew points still having an influence. High pressure will continue to retreat eastward today with low level winds veering and increasing, promoting decent warm advection. The CWA will be on the western periphery of a retreating high pressure center tonight, and a weak disturbance aloft will bring increasing mid/high clouds overhead by tomorrow morning.
1120 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 855 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
1050 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 UPDATED AVIATION A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY ALONG THE HI-LINE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS GREAT FALLS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO AREAS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA INCLUDING KCTB.
AND FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH WEAK WAA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB TOWARD THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. BRIEF HIGH BELTED ZONAL SPLIT FLW ACRS THE CONUS WILL BUCKLE SUBSTANTIALLY LT PD AS WRN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES NWD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE REGION AFTER 06Z.
621 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. NEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 7-9 DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR WESTERN TROF TO APPROACH. 47 WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO MID STATE SHORTLY.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING (ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COOL START THIS EVENING). THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
944 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM TEXARKANA TO THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS HAS PROVIDED THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BRINGING THE FIRST EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND N MS. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF ABOUT 10-20 MILES BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED BY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER TN. FURTHER TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER, AIR TEMPERATURE, AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE WERE ALSO NECESSARY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
755 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING OUR NORTHERN AREA WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EARLY EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (23Z) AND RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR ROCKSPRINGS TO FREDERICKSBURG TO BURNET. PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG A DEL RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO LINE WITH COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO SAN ANGELO TO FORT WORTH LINE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
1242 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
Patchy fog (mainly shallow ground fog) will continue to persist behind the cold front and rainfall, until winds pick up and advect drier air into the region. Lower 60 surface dewpoints are about to push northeast out of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and into west Kentucky ahead of the cold front. This should lead to better surface-based instability, which should increase confidence in scattered convection developing along or just ahead of the cold front mainly over west Kentucky generally after 4 PM.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (23Z) AND RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR ROCKSPRINGS TO FREDERICKSBURG TO BURNET. PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG A DEL RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO LINE WITH COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO SAN ANGELO TO FORT WORTH LINE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVE CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS DRY AIR ENTERS THE REGION BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AROUND MIDDAY WILL REINFORCE COLD ADVECTION VIA NORTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO COVER THE REGION.
Cold front pushed thru the region earlier today. ushering in much drier air and slightly cooler highs in some spots. Storms have fired along the front from the Arklatex east to the lower Mississippi Valley. much cooler than last night.
1120 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN IS A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH A TROUGH ACROSS MISS RIVER VALLEY. SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST AND POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO DESPITE BE 20 OR MORE DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FAVORED COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LIKELY TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY.
624 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Some clouds will linger to the north this evening associated with a big upper low over the western Great Lakes. However, most of Central Illinois will clear out behind the exiting cold front and high pressure will build back into the region. Winds are expected to stay up i the 10-15 mph range as the pressure gradient reestablishes behind the sfc trof.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
1219 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY.
854 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION ASIDE FROM A BRIEF BURST OF WIND (GUSTS 35+ KTS) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE S/W TROF AND RAIN BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY LATE TONIGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TOOK A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
ADDED VCSH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN SEASONAL.
623 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE ADVISORY.
/ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
1027 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
607 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN IS A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH A TROUGH ACROSS MISS RIVER VALLEY. SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST AND POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO DESPITE BE 20 OR MORE DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FAVORED COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LIKELY TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
1002 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FM NEAR KATC TO KELD. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE REGION AFTER 06Z.
1158 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM TEXARKANA TO THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS HAS PROVIDED THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BRINGING THE FIRST EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND N MS. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF ABOUT 10-20 MILES BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED BY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER TN. FURTHER TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER, AIR TEMPERATURE, AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE WERE ALSO NECESSARY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BTWN 09Z-12Z RESULTING IN RAPID CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY 12Z.
1025 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW ONE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT TAKING ANY SHOWERS WITH IT.
THERE WILL BE A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN STATES.
612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front has passed through West Central Texas with north winds greater than 12 knots reported at all terminals at the last hour. /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Cold front continues to drop south through West Central Texas this afternoon, extending south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line at 20Z (3 PM). Not a lot cooler to the north with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Slightly cooler and much drier air mass settles into the area tonight, and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s tonight.
726 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. A VERY POTENT THETA-E PLUME IN THE MID- LEVELS IS FEEDING UP INTO THIS AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. WITH A FAIRLY SHARP BACK SIDE OF THE PLUME REVEALING THE LOCATION OF THE MID- LEVEL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN OHIO AT THIS HOUR. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH.
VERY DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AN ISSUE AT ALL. THE LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ELEVATED UNTIL THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING RUNNING UNTIL 0Z.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE AND OUR REGION.
920 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS.
731 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 352 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
1011 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
THE LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK IS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TUESDAY.
745 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.