Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
the H5/H7 ridge that had been amplified over the western portion of the country is beginning to flatten/break down as an upper level low works into the Pacific NW. The ridge axis associated with the upper level ridge will traverse the Plains region thru the day settling south of the CWA going into Friday. The approaching upper low working into the west coast will make its way off the Rockies and thru the Plains region Friday/Friday night. This system will be accompanied by a surface cold front that will push thru the area about the same timeframe. the passage of the upper trough will allow for amplified upper ridging to re-assert itself over the western portions of the country. As the upper ridge amplifies in the Rockies.
925 mb temps suggest high temps in the lower to middle 40s today. For tnt, swly flow and warm advection will increase, as strong low pressure moves east across srn WI.
249 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build across the area today allowing mostly sunny skies but cool temperatures. A very weak upper trof will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains.
345 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Low pressure will move east of the maritimes today while high pressure crosses the region. An upper level disturbance will bring some cloudiness and possible flurries and isolated snow showers to mostly northwest portions of the region tonight followed by brief high pressure for Friday morning.
/issued 1149 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/ For the 23/06Z terminal forecast will be prevailing VFR flight categories for all sites across the ARKLATEX that will be under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft. 28 pwat and Little Rock was nearly half that which may even allow our dew points to fall a bit more as high pressure settles in on NE wind and then goes calm toward daybreak.
257 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build into the area and last through the weekend.
Weak clipper system was located in the northern Plains with a warm front located in the central Dakotas.
356 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Friday.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 20s area wide. with the exception of Nashville where the heat island is keeping the temperature around freezing. The good news is temperatures will rise nicely today with highs expected in the lower to mid 50s with plenty of sunshine. Not much to the forecast for the next couple days as weak high pressure extending from the desert southwest will be in control over the area.
/issued 421 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/ The upper level ridge that has taken up residence over SOCAL will continue to dominate our weather over the holiday weekend. Friday evening/night the associated cold front will traverse the region.
Regional and local radar showing returns, but 00Z soundings from upstream sites show plenty of dry air in place in the lower levels, preventing any precipitation from reaching the ground. Skies will slowly clear from west to east this afternoon, with areas seeing sunshine reaching into the lower 40s versus upper 30s where clouds hold on. Clear skies tonight will allow temps to drop below freezing. Series of progressively stronger troughs will move through the region every couple of days, with above normal temperatures being seen ahead of each one.
1053 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 Large upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will result in warm and dry conditions. High cirrus clouds will continue to come over the top of the ridge resulting in partly sunny skies.
Tonight expect continued dry weather with warm air advection increasing ahead of the next cold front.
Readings will warm more on Friday as south to southwest winds begin to increase ahead of the next cold front.
An upper level ridge of high pressure oriented from the desert southwest north through the Rockies will expand east onto the plains through the afternoon. The effects of the warmer airmass have already been noted with early morning temperatures averaging in the 30s to around 40 degrees, setting the stage for a solid warmup heading into the afternoon. For Hastings, a new record high is more marginal with the higher standing record and a current forecast high temperature shy of the 70 degree mark.
With excellent radiational cooling conditions in place, temperatures will continue to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s with a few locations in the Piney Woods possibly touching freezing for an hour or two around sunrise. Dry north to northwest flow aloft will persist across the region today through this weekend with a gradual warming trend beginning Friday as upper ridging over the Desert Southwest nudges towards the east. Lows in the 40s to low 50s on Friday morning will quickly warm into the lower 70s Friday afternoon.
However the lower levels are so dry that precip is having a hard time making it to the ground.
120 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build back into and over the region overnight through Friday.
302 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday.
This dry air mass both at the surface as well as periods of mid level drying at the onset and then as the system waa wanes late, may produce some light freezing type overnight. Since the progs measurable pcpn has backed off from previous runs, will also back off a bit on the mention of a freezing type at this time in terms of a time period. Surface ridging and gradual upper height increases on Thursday will produce decreasing clouds.
1030 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 Quiet weather overnight through Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably warm temperatures as a large upper ridge holds just west of the Rocky mtn chain.
Near the surface, a trough of low pressure is edging eastward across central Kansas. An unseasonably strong high pressure ridge (595 dm centered south of San Diego) continues to provide dry subsident NW flow aloft, with cirrus rotating over the ridge axis into the plains. Upper 30s will be common Thanksgiving morning, with many locales south and west of Dodge City holding in the lower 40s. Unseasonably warm (near record high) temperatures in the lower to mid 70s will be enjoyed (the record high at Dodge City is 74/2005).
A mostly cloudy sky and south breeze held temperatures up mainly in the low 30s. A weak, fast moving low pressure system will track through the region tonight through Thursday morning producing little other than high cloud cover and a gradual shift in the direction of light surface winds.
Had a mild day with temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal as the warm front pushed into central Idaho. Upper level ridge will remain over the region through Thursday keeping most of the moisture north of the forecast area. The upper level ridge weakens Thursday afternoon into Friday with passage of a weak upper level trough across Northern Idaho. Showers will develop Thursday afternoon in the higher terrain with the bulk of precipitation coming Thursday night into Friday morning with the cold front.
1149 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 For the 23/06Z terminal forecast will be prevailing VFR flight categories for all sites across the ARKLATEX that will be under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft. 28 pwat and Little Rock was nearly half that which may even allow our dew points to fall a bit more as high pressure settles in on NE wind and then goes calm toward daybreak.
Strong cold front still on track to move across the region Thursday. Cooler and drier Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies as a weak ridge builds over the region. Cold front will bring a period of rain Thursday with lower ceilings.
A weak low level ridge will pass through the region today keeping most areas dry but persistent warm air advection will keep a mix of sun and clouds around with the most clouds over far northern Minnesota. However, as we progress through the evening the combination of persistent warm air advection and some loss of ice may cause some freezing drizzle to occur from the Arrowhead west along portions of the International Border. However, several GFS Ensemble members show light precipitation will develop and given the overall setup with slightly deeper moisture and the warm air advection, we have slight chances for freezing drizzle by mid to late evening. There may be a few pockets that are near freezing which could result in some patchy freezing rain, but chances look low as temperatures warm.
1120 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 A massive upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. This will continue Thanksgiving with highs even a few degrees warmer than today. In fact, near record highs expected in the lower 70s at some locations. Latest timing of the cold front will prompt cooler high across the area Friday, albeit still above-normal, compared to Thanksgiving Day, expect for locations in the extreme south.
The strong upper level ridge that is set up over the West Coast will continue to keep the region under N to NW flow aloft today and tomorrow. Early tomorrow the upper level ridge becomes slightly flattened as a system moves across the Pacific NW. At the surface lee side troughing develops ahead of a surface cold front. Friday evening/night the associated cold front will cross the region.
/issued 937 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/ Cold high pressure is settling over the region with clear skies and light winds. /issued 222 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/ High pressure will build into the region tonight and dominate our weather through Thanksgiving. Tonight is expected to be one of the coldest nights of the season given dew points in the lower to middle 20s, calm winds and clear skies.
A strong ridge set up off the California coast continues to place the region under northwesterly to northerly flow the rest of the week. Lee side troughing will develop Thanksgiving Day and Friday, which will help bring downsloping flow into the area and aid with a warming trend. An approaching dry cold front on Friday could bring breezy conditions, but the strongest low level winds may be south of the region.
High pressure will slide south tonight resulting in persistent northerly winds. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Brush Country and into the low to mid 40s along the Coastal Bend and southern Brush Country.
Regardless of the flow aloft being fairly strong, much drier air in the low/mid levels will keep any precip chances out of the area through Thursday night. A west-northwest downslope flow for much of the day will become more southwesterly mid to late afternoon as lee side troughing develops across eastern Colorado. This will reinforce an ongoing warming trend with highs pushing the lower to mid 70s(F) this afternoon.
146 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017 Large upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will result in warm and dry conditions. High cirrus clouds will continue to come over the top of the ridge resulting in partly sunny skies.
340 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Deep low along the Pacific NW coast will begin to influence the weather across NE Montana overnight tonight into Thursday as first in a series of weather disturbances swing NNE across NE MT producing a mixture of precipitation types, snow, freezing drizzle, freezing fog, and some rain mixing in Thursday afternoon, for areas mainly south of the Missouri River.
This will set the stage for warmer temperatures and gusty south winds Thursday as low pressure over the western Plains deepens. Highs will be on the order of ten degrees (F) warmer versus today.
317 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure in the Lower Mississippi River Valley today will be in the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
143 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure over eastern Kansas will move south today toward the Southern Plains providing a period of dry weather through the short term. A broad trough over the eastern one third of the country will slowly continue to move to the east today. Winds will switch from the northwest to the southwest after sunrise today over the area in response to high pressure moving south this morning.
Generally a pleasant and quiet day with highs in the lower 70s and light northeast to east winds. allowing for a minor surge of slightly cooler/drier air to filter into the region this morning. Light NNE winds in the morning will gradually become more easterly, and eventually southeasterly through the day as the area of high pressure starts to shift into the N Central Gulf by late today. Rather persistent mid/upper level cloudiness is likely to prevail today as the H25 jet remains nearly overhead and mid level vort maxes ride east over the weak ridge axis, which is currently west of the CWA. Continued unseasonably cool temps will occur again with max temps briefly warming into the low 70s this afternoon. Thicker cloud cover should also negate significant diurnal warming despite a warmer southerly flow.
The broad upper level trough will park across the western states through the upcoming weekend.
/26/ Today through tonight: The cold eastern CONUS trough will continue to influence ArkLaMiss weather in the short term.
A weak cold front sags down from Ontario tonight, but mostly misses our CWA. There is a chance that clouds could advect in with the cold front, so increased sky cover, but not to an overcast threshold. Thursday should be equally as nice though a tad cooler as high pressure builds keeping clouds to a minimum.
215 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 At 1 PM, high pressure was providing sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will keep skies mainly clear through Thursday morning. These clouds are associated with some moisture spilling over top of the 500 mb ridge. 5C colder than this afternoon, the high temperatures will be about 5F colder than today.
236 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure in the Lower Mississippi River Valley today will be in the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
Northwest flow aloft over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles transitions to southwest overnight as mid-level ridge translates eastward across the forecast area. Also on Thursday, modest increase in low- to mid-level moisture aligned with surface trof expected to lead to a small amount of elevated instability in eastern sections late in the afternoon. Pacific cold front moves east through the Panhandles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with further low-level drying.
1244 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Omega blocking pattern aloft remains in place over the U. and Canada early this morning with a low entering the west coast, a highly amplified ridge over the Rockies and another low over the eastern Great Lakes. Tonight, southerly winds will continue and should see some rising heights aloft as the main low continues to push east and upper ridging in advance of the Pacific low also shifts further east into the plains. Low pressure will begin to develop in the high plains ahead of the upper level system on Thursday. Upper ridge will move eastward over the area with southerly winds increasing over the area ahead of the low. A decent southwesterly low level jet will set up Thursday night with good warm air advection ahead of the low.
1237 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 GOES_East water vapor imagery early this morning showing a mid-level trough dropping south along the Manitoba/Ontario border. Warm air advection kicks in this morning across the region ahead of that mid-level trough/surface cold front dropping south out of Canada. High pressure builds in behind the departing mid-level wave/surface cold front tonight with overnight lows falling into the teens to middle 20s. Sunny and a bit cooler for Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the region. Plan on highs in the 30s to the lower 40s.
607 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. Snow showers should diminish this evening as an upper low exits and lapse rates decrease with sunset and warm advection aloft. With the cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
This in concert with slight increase in low level moisture should result in warmer lows. Gusty south winds and warmer temperatures are expected. Warm front and moisture return in concert with good upper diffluence will lead to a chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms late Thursday night over the Flint Hills and Southeast KS.
Northwest flow continues this morning with an upper level trough across the eastern U.
513 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Despite the worst of the storm being well to our northeast, the region remains under the influence of upper level low pressure.
Broad troughing aloft over the region will gradually be replaced by ridging tonight through Thursday as heights rise. At the surface, high pressure centered over the LA/AR region will shift to a position more overhead tonight, with light winds and clear skies setting up a good radiational cooling night. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for a few hours up in Levy County, where a Freeze Warning remains in effect.
647 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley this evening will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
The overnight forecast challenge is the low temperature forecast. A dry cold front will pass through the area Thursday before stalling in the TN Valley Thursday night. The models are coming into better agreement with this first disturbance, with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a cutoff low transforming into more of a shallow trough as it moves over the Ohio Valley the first part of the weekend.
/issued 1109 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018/ High pressure is dominant with sunny skies across the region.
459 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Latest water vapor imagery shows a deep trough of low pressure sagging along mid-Atlantic region with ridging further west, out over the high Plains. Clockwise flow around this feature has allowed for light northerly flow across the peninsula today, drawing in a drier and cooler airmass. Maximum temperatures have once again struggled to reach the lower 70s, much cooler than average for this time of year. By tonight, a second impulse of dry and cooler air will reach our CWA from the north. However, dry conditions will remain with maximum temperatures still struggling to reach the low to mid 70s.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Gusty southwest winds have pushed temperatures into the lower 60s over the central and southern portion of the forecast area, while 40s to upper 50s were found over the north. Expecting the winds to decouple with the sunset tonight as well as a wind shift behind a very weak cold front this evening. Slightly cooler tomorrow, but still above normal over the south and near normal in the north.
Lows tonight will be in the low 30s to low 40s. For now have highs ranging from the low 50s far north to around 70 far south.
258 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Cool high pressure will settle into the area tonight and allow for some cooler readings as winds remain light into the night.
Our few hours of weak ridging (actually nearly zonal flow) will come to an end here later this evening as another shot of colder air drops down from the north. An upper low will continue to pinwheel away over far eastern Canada. Nnw 1000-850mb winds will persist Thu night, just ahead of high pressure pushing se-ward into western Superior/western upper MI. 850mb temps will remain in the mid minus teens C for the 1st half of the night, but we will be warming and drying after that as the high approaches. After that, high pressure will settle in over the central and southern Lakes region.
These clouds should continue to dissipate this evening as the upper trough continues to push further east. (Thursday - Thursday Night) An upper ridge over the plains will move east over the Ohio Valley. At the surface, two high pressure centers will remain north and south of IN and KY, and low pressure will sit to the west over CO and near the coast to the east. Most of the day will remain sunny with the high pressure in the area, but a cold front will ride the upper ridge into the CWA tomorrow. Ahead of the cold front, winds will be brisk at 10 - 15 mph with gusts in the low 20 mph range, but there is no moisture for this front because of this don't expect any precipitation.
320 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Upper level ridging will dominate across the region tonight ahead of long wave trough that is located along the west coast. The base of the long wave trough will pivot toward southern Colorado by Thursday afternoon. A warm front will sharpen across northern KS Thursday afternoon, with highs well into the 80s across southwest KS to the south of the front.
423 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Despite the worst of the storm being well to our northeast, the region remains under the influence of upper level low pressure.
There is a weak warm front that is to the north of the forecast area this afternoon. The warm front to the north will sag to the south during the night. An upper level low developing in the Rockies will send the first wave of energy into the area. With the front in northern Kansas, the temperatures will remain warm, but the east winds across much of southern Nebraska will keep temperatures a little cooler.
The onshore flow will lead to slightly warmer min temps tonight along with increasing moisture. With the increased moisture/clouds on Thu, highs should be similar to today's values and slightly warmer for Thu night lows.
There is a slight chance of showers tonight before cooler temperatures and a better chance of rain and mountain snow arrive Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service BISMARCK ND 301 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a narrow but sharp upper level ridge stretching from the Yukon Territories through the front range of the Northern Rockies. Models and BUFKIT soundings indicate moistening up of the lower levels as winds turn more northeast this evening/overnight, with upslope flow across our western counties. For Thursday, the narrow ridge of high pressure mentioned above shifts into eastern North Dakota with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Per latest water vapor imagery, an upper low was seen circulating just west of Queen Charlotte Islands with an attending trough stretched south along the west coast.
326 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Quiet and mild conditions are expected in the short term period, as an upper level ridge slides across the central part of the country.
Morning forecast has been updated to take into account the stalling of the cold front over Elko, Eureka, and Lander counties this morning. A cold front associated with a storm system will move through the state today brining showers and a few thunderstorms to much of the state.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure centered to the north and northeast of the region will continue to shift east, resulting in veering winds tonight, from east to southeast. Light winds will become moderate to breezy southeast to south on Thursday due to the interaction with deepening low pressure over the central high Plains. Temps will continue near normal tonight, in the 50s and 60s, but will trend warmer Thursday and Thursday night as Gulf air with more moisture edges west.
Areas in West-Central IL will get into the low 50s while areas in East-Central IL will be in the mid to upper 40s. A weak cold front will turn winds to the northwest overnight, but no precipitation is expected with the front. Lows will be around freezing, and I went lower than guidance suggested given clear skies and light winds. Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, and despite the cold front, high temps should be in the 50s.