Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
834 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 BERMUDA RIDGE BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN IN SAME GENERAL AREA NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO STRENGTH OF SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING. SO LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS KEEPING SFC WINDS OUT OF THE E/SE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. NO ISSUES WITH EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE WITH ONLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
Cooler and more unsettled weather will arrive by the middle of the week. Afternoon highs should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Weak cyclonic flow will continue as upper level lows continue to spin to the north and south of region.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALREADY THIS MORNING! THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z BMX AND HSV BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WITH THE ABILITY TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP TODAY WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF CLOUD COVER BUT REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
1115 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES CAN BE SEEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. GIVEN ONGOING TRENDS AND A SHARPENING 700-500MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED AS A MID- LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE ENERGY IS PART OF A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING BACK IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS KEEPING THE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LIFTING OF THE DEEP TROF OVER THE SW INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THE WARMER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FROM KSPI-KDEC-KCMI NORTHWARD WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY WAS FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO WESTERN KANSAS. BUT IT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FRONT AS IT IS NUDGED NORTHWARD. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 8000 FEET HAVE TRANSPORTED MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN GULF.
1005 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY FROM THE EAST BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE HRRR HAS LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 10-11Z ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. ON TUESDAY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE BEST FORCING.
934 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIFT ENAHNCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SO IVE INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS SOME LOW CLOUDS JUST BEHIND IT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO AROUND 90. BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE BREATHABLE AIR.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
538 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
748 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY OVERALL IMPACT. UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
1109 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A RESULT.
1123 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT TO OUR NORTH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT A LITTLE WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
937 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY. /ISSUED 545 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SAGGING ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ALSO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. WITH THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
624 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 /12Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALED AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WAS WELL BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED MOISTURE INCREASE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FINALLY START TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES LOWER THAN TODAY.
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1042 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT KEEPING THE WARM AND MOIST WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. A GENERAL NORTH TO SOUTH PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH BY SUNSET. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT. OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF. AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO KCMH. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
929 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND A LINGERING TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR LINGERING TROUGH WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 THIS HOURS TEMPERATURE READINGS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW HOT SPOTS IN THE MID 90S. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LINGERING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED CLOUD-COVER AND CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GREAT LAKES POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW ANCHORING OVER HUDSON BAY. DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING UNDER FULL INSOLATION AND A COOLER 800-900 MB THERMAL LAYER ESTABLISHES A STEEP LOW LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON. A MODEST WEST WIND STILL LEFT BEHIND WITH THE REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST INTO NW ALABAMA TOWARD TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. MUCH DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARDS CULLMAN AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES IN AL. THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY HELP TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD TRY TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S. BEFORE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 60S DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KTW /ISSUED 657 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING S/SE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AS OF 1145Z THIS MORNING.
1108 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT.
1114 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY. BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES INTO WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SURFACE/850 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY SOUTH OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA. GREAT LAKES POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW ANCHORING OVER HUDSON BAY. DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING UNDER FULL INSOLATION AND A COOLER 800-900 MB THERMAL LAYER ESTABLISHES A STEEP LOW LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON. A MODEST WEST WIND STILL LEFT BEHIND WITH THE REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
1218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
1020 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENSURE THIS FACT. EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE WEST RIDGE/EAST TROUGH CONFIGURATION IS UNDERWAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW SPINS JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE GFS TRIES TO BUILD THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A RESULT.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER HIGH TO REMAINED POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS AS WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS OBSERVED THE LAST WEEK GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING. REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
939 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING SUNSHINE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AND WILL ONLY GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX. KEEPING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER NM.
A BROAD AND NEBULOUS RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND AND THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG MOST KEYS COMMUNITIES. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH.
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE TEMPERED THEM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE TODAY /WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS/. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 69 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 65 88 65 / 30 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 65 89 64 / 30 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 62 86 59 / 30 10 0 0.
1002 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. FALLING TO NEAR 70 OR THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S ON THE COAST. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MIDWEEK WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW /INBETWEEN/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GENERALLY PUSH IS TO THE SOUTH WHICH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.
722 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LAST AREA OF RAIN ROTATING THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF OUR CWA TONIGHT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL EXIT BY 01Z. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
EVOLVING FROM WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH TO A BROADER MEAN TROUGH CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GULF OF AK LOW PASSING THROUGH WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO FAIRLY BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH.
RADAR SHOWING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT STORMS NOW OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN EXITING EAST. A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL DRIVE A DRIER MID LVL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1051 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE WEEKEND.
BUT ONE THAT HAD BEEN MODIFIED LOCALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY EARLIER CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN IN THE AREA. /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
WITH MASSIVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND STRONG TROUGHING FROM THE MS VALLEY EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE US.