Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low pressure system that has wobbled over the area for the past week will open into a trough that will get pushed off to the northeast ahead of another incoming trough. The aforementioned trough will move through the area Saturday, bringing a more stable southwesterly flow and slightly cooler temperatures west of the Cascades. Ahead of this trough passage, there should be a pretty good marine push Saturday morning, with low clouds expected to make it to the Umpqua Divide. As the trough passes through Saturday afternoon, there could be enough lingering moisture and instability to kick off isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Cascades Saturday afternoon.
The forecast area is under a southwest flow this morning on the back side of the broad upper ridge currently centered over Texas. Over northern Utah, the trough over California that had been ejecting waves eastward has moved north of the area, so overall instability should be less.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were generally from the south. The upper level ridge will remain over Texas during this period. The main weather concern will be the high temperatures and heat index. The upper ridge will strengthen Saturday ending any rain chances and increasing temperatures a bit more.
1010 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A warm front will lift north across the region today through tonight. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Saturday.
619 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure overhead this morning resulting in some isolated areas of fog, while to the northwest we can see a weak wave drifting southeast. Otherwise, high pressure centers to the east, with a weak lee low to the west resulting in light southerly flow, with only an 8mb gradient across the state.
Weak thermal troughing over that area is leading to some higher cape values, which is aiding to trigger the activity.
The main areas of focus for any afternoon storms will be along the outflow boundary from the morning storms, and the synoptic cold front, which should be near the KS border.
740 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Aviation Scattered showers and storms will remain possible today across Southwest Lower Michigan along and ahead of a cold front. Dry weather is then expected over the weekend as high pressure gradually works in from the west.
1058 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front approaches today and crosses Saturday.
GOES-16 IR imagery early this morning shows extensive mid level overcast over IL and the southeast half of IA in advance of advance of trough axis. Areal extent of this lower cloudiness isn't particularly large, so what low clouds do filter in from the north this morning will be battling the high sun angle and deepening mixing boundary layer's tendency to mix this moisture out.
1001 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 with the associated cold front currently sliding eastward thru Lower Michigan. Narrow dry slot just ahead of the cold front continues to steadily fill in with developing low clouds. as CAA continues to strengthen in the wake of the cold front. Cooler with lingering showers/thunder today. long wave troughing remains across much of eastern NOAM with long wave ridging along the west coast/Rockies. Surface cold front slips through the CWA during the course of the day with post-frontal wrap around moisture/stratus/increasing shower chances overspreading the region.
High pressure over central ND will move east today.
The low is part of an elongated trough with axis extending from the GA Coast to the FL Keys. Bulk of the precip has remained on the eastern flank of the trof axis, largely confined to the Atlantic. Lcl 6KM WRF/HRRR models continue to show the circulation center drifting N/NW through the day and well into the evng hrs, roughly paralleling the NE FL coast before becoming absorbed within a frontal trough over the deep south arnd midnight or shortly thereafter. Light westerly flow will push max temps into the low 90s today, even close to the coast.
959 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure over central ND will move east today.
617 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front/outflow boundary has made it through all the terminals early this morning shifting light winds to the northeast. /issued 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ Upper level ridge axis expected to amplify today in advance of minor short wave activity migrating through the southern Rockies and plateau. An outflow from last evenings storms was located near Kress to Paducah early this morning, and is expected to edge a little further south - but questionable if it can become a factor for storm development beneath the sharper anticyclone. Upper ridge will flatten and recenter over south-central Texas by late Saturday. A cold front boundary should sag into the southern or central part of the Texas Panhandle, with solutions not indicating any significant frontal push through out area.
Elsewhere, isolated showers and MVFR thunderstorms over the higher terrain after 18Z.
805 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A warm front will lift north across the region today through tonight. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Saturday.
Even with the below normal temperatures, expect to see the muggy conditions to continue given the high surface dewpoints.
Sufficient mixing ahead and behind the boundary, along with cloud-cover from convection, will likely keep temeratures in the lower 90s areawide. Dewpoint values in the lower 70s behind the boundary will also limit heat index limit values to around 100 degrees today.
924 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A slow moving cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening.
Weak upper disturbances embedded within a broad upper trough axis across much of the ern CONUS will also provide a focus mech for convective development today, with the flow pattern again mainly light/out of the WSW. Rainfall chances increase again starting off the new work week, as the front drifts back to the N and the upper trough axis across the region begins to translate E. Rain chances may then taper off heading into the middle the week, as high pressure builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley and slightly drier air filters swd into the region.
Expect warmer temps across the northern zones. A cold front associated with this low was slowly sagged across the CWA. This wave and high pressure moving into the area will serve as the main foci for the short term forecast. The high temps are predicated on stratus holding on across the area depicted in the RAP.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 72 87 70 / 60 50 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 70 85 68 / 60 40 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 84 70 85 68 / 60 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 67 82 64 / 60 40 60 20.
By late this afternoon, the next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of ern NM and sern CO as well as parts of the fcst area where residual boundaries may exist from the early morning crop of showers and storms.
Upper level ridge will begin to build into South Texas today and expect high temperatures to be slightly higher than yesterday. Moisture levels will continue to decrease over the area for Saturday with upper level ridge firmly in place.
Expect shower coverage to increase over the ridges this morning as the low-level convergence strengthens. On Saturday, a weak surface boundary drops across the region as low pressure tracks northeastward across the Great Lakes.
Models are progging a wave of low pressure to move across the old boundary on Saturday.
Upper-level impulse moving across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan is strong enough to drive an otherwise weak cold front SE across the Corn Belt toward the Ohio Valley. Main challenge is the timing and impact of any precip associated with the cold front as it moves into the area late today. First areas to see showers or storms around midday may be in south-central Kentucky, where yesterday's inverted trof left behind a better moisture supply to fuel isolated pop-up convection. Cooler and less humid air will be slow to filter into the region tonight and Saturday as Canadian high pressure does not have a strong post-frontal push.
Ridge of high pressure over the region is in the process of weakening and slowly shifting off to the east as a trough of low pressure approaches from the Gulf of Alaska and eventually replaces the ridge over the region.
805 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Marine Scattered showers and storms will remain possible today across Southwest Lower Michigan along and ahead of a cold front. Dry weather is then expected over the weekend as high pressure gradually works in from the west.
High pressure will return to the area in the wake of this system, bringing another prolonged period of dry and pleasant weather to central Indiana. From midnight onward through the weekend, high pressure will take control and dry and pleasant weather will again be the rule.
Other issue is the fairly high dewpts in the upper 70s to near 80 across the region this morning, down a degree from the lower 80s an hour ago. Since not expecting the higher heat index values for a prolonged length of time, will hold off on issuing heat advisory at this time. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s north of the line and upper 70s to low 80s south of it. Rua During the forecast period forecast area will be between an upper level ridge centered over Texas and a broad upper level trough along the east coast. Also, a couple of short waves rotating around the upper level ridge will also help provide some weakness in the mid and upper levels.
Temperatures today are expected to be in the lower 80s. Winds will be light from the northeast to east across the area tonight with skies mostly clear to start with an increase overnight with cloud debris increasing after midnight from the high plains convection.
An area of low pressure over the north-central Great Lakes region will continue lifting into Quebec early this morning. This area of high pressure will dominate the Northland by this afternoon and through Saturday. The high will promote fairly clear skies for much of the day, and clear and calm conditions overnight. Today will be a bit cooler because of a bit more northerly flow than Saturday. Highs should in the lower to middle 70s today, followed middle to upper 70s Saturday.
1020 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A warm front will lift north towards the region today.
617 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Broad cyclonic flow prevailing over the region this morning as main upper trough continues moving through the northern Great Lakes. With time this morning, expect activity to eventually start settling to the south as high pressure attempts to build in from the northwest. As such, much of the day will be dry following this morning's activity with afternoon highs climbing back into the lower 80s for most as skies attempt to clear later in the day. This is likely in response to a more westward positioning of a high pressure center to our north which should lead to an influx of drier air as winds remain from the north through much of the day. Despite this, ample sunshine should allow temps to warm right back up into the lower 80s Saturday afternoon.
1029 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Currently - A trough over Central Florida has blunted the Atlantic Ridge, resulting in a weak pressure gradient across the Florida Keys. While the direction of the lower level flow will not be favorable for cloud build up over the island chain, the weakness may allow for local effects to dominate.
Drier conditions with warmer temperatures expected through the weekend. Drier conditions with warmer temperatures expected through the weekend.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS. Upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS.
However, a cold front will push southeast on Saturday and it looks like showers and storms should become organized along the front as it slides southeast across southeast Kentucky. Temperatures should be mild today and tomorrow reaching into the lower 80s both days. A cold front will be departing to the southeast at the start of the period. A few showers may be lingering in our southeast counties Saturday evening, but will be ending as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
The latest surface analysis showed an ill defined boundary (warm front) extending from the Missouri Bootheel southeast across the northern Alabama into central Georgia. Significant convection was noted this morning along the cold front stretching from central Illinois through the Ozarks to the Arklatex. Hard to discern much in the way of upper level support though the high res NAM does show an impulse sweeping across this afternoon. Rainfall chances increase again starting off the new work week, as the front drifts back to the N and the upper trough axis across the region begins to translate E. Rain chances may then taper off heading into the middle the week, as high pressure builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley and slightly drier air filters swd into the region.
1117 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Cold front has now pushed into southeastern IL near Interstate 70. The cold front hasn't reached Illinois quite yet, but is progged to reach the Illinois River valley toward 4-5 am and should be in the southeast CWA by midday. Further to the northwest, some clearing should take place in the afternoon as high pressure begins to move southeast out of Minnesota, and the arrival of drier air ahead of it will allow for temperatures to fall into the 50s tonight.
Water Spouts possible along the lower northeast Florida coast. Visible imagery showing the low clouds across the inland areas continue to rapidly erode and expecting mostly sunny conditions there prior to scattered storms late in the afternoon into the early eve. Scattered showers and storms will first develop along the lower Ne Fl coast and move further inland this afternoon as the seabreezes advance inland.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to peak in the low 90s, possibly being capped in the upper 80s in southeast Alabama with higher cloud coverage.
/issued 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Warmer than normal with generally dry weather through the short term. Although an outflow boundary will move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties form convection ongoing in Oklahoma, the persistent upper level ridging is expected to suppress rain chances for the most part. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, with lows in the low to mid 70s tonight, with generally south to southeast winds.
Dew points are in the low to mid 70s north of the line and upper 70s to low 80s south of it. Rua During the forecast period forecast area will be between an upper level ridge centered over Texas and a broad upper level trough along the east coast. Also, a couple of short waves rotating around the upper level ridge will also help provide some weakness in the mid and upper levels.
Look for only minor day-to-day changes through the forecast period as a trough of low pressure remains off the west coast.
1246 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A warm front will lift north across the region today through tonight. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Saturday.
Maliawco Synoptic Setup: A hot high pressure heat dome currently resides over the Desert Southwest with a ridge rising up north into the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories. to the northeast a large area of modified cool air is centered over Ontario with two trough extensions pointing out towards the Upper Mississippi Valley through central US Plains and through the Canadian Prairies where it terminated over souther Alberta. Northeast Montana lies on the cooler side of these two large airmasses under northwest to northern flow aloft. Saturday: The upper level trough associated with the cold front will begin exiting the area Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile the ridge to the west will translate over into Idaho and western Montana.
A broad upper level trough remains over the eastern US. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS. Upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS.
1056 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the northeastern and north central CONUS, with slight ridging across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will shift to the east with breezy southerly return flow winds expected.
Highs today will vary from the mid 70s along the Colorado state line to the lower 80s at Hays.
A modest rebound in highs is expected today, albeit still 5-10 degrees below seasonal normal values but warmer than yesterday's well below normal highs. Current thinking is storms will develop upstream and move off the higher terrain into the local forecast area during the evening.
Current readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s are warmer than yesterday at this time by several degrees. Weak high pressure is forecast to build over the area during the weekend for mostly dry weather and mild temperatures.
Warmer air begins pushing into the region as well on Saturday, with highs ranging from the teens east to the 30s over central SD.
A large upper trough remains over the eastern half of the country this morning while a short wave is rounding the base of the trough over Texas. Today the ridge axis will slip more east of the region which will gradually turn the flow more east then onshore tonight.
Skies have cleared behind the exiting short wave trough. Went slightly below guidance temperatures for highs Saturday near the bays and coastline due to cooler shelf waters. This will advect warm and moist air across the cooler shelf waters.
Meanwhile, a new lee-side trough will develop in eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.
1226 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Cold high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
401 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 The deep upper trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.
327 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Latest surface observations show temperatures have rebounded quite a bit from this morning's lows in the single digits and teens, with current readings ranging from the low 20s on the Plateau to above freezing in southwest zones.
208 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 The deep upper trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.
252 PM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 Tricky forecast today, especially with the patchy and dense freezing fog at times. For the immediate short term forecast this evening, current thoughts are that the advancing area of clouds from the west will generally prevent another round of dense freezing fog from forming tonight, but patchy freezing fog still looks possible. Tomorrow, some lingering diminishing areas of freezing fog look possible, but as time goes on, we expect some partial clearing for Saturday afternoon.
The warmer Pacific air to our west associated with an upper level ridge over the Rockies. The baroclinic zone between the arctic air to the east and warmer Pacific air to our west includes a large area of clouds over much of the western Plains, including much of western and central North Dakota. As the eastern US storm moves northeast, the flow aloft becomes more progressive and allows the west coast ridge to nudge eastward into the western Dakotas. As the warmer air moves into our area, the baroclinic zone also moves east.
Low temperatures reached the lower to mid 20s in most locations across the forecast area, with a few of the normally colder locations in SE Alabama and SW Georgia sneaking down to the upper teens.
A weak warm front is lifting north across the forecast area this morning mainly impacting extreme north Oregon and southern Washington. There will be some freezing rain showers associated with this and some spotty ice accumulations. Winter weather advisories for freezing rain have been issued until this afternoon. However, most of the precipitation will be done by midday and temperatures will be warming into the lower 30s so thinking the advisories will likely be cancelled late this morning or around midday. A cold front is expected to move across the forecast area tonight mainly impacting the eastern portion of the forecast area. There could be some more freezing rain associated with this but with temperatures expected to be in the low 30s the efficiency of ice accumulation will be low and just spotty ice conditions expected.
With ample sunshine and south-southwest winds, temperatures are warmer and mostly in the 60-65 degree range across our area at 200 PM. Some high clouds topping the upper level ridge, centered over the southwestern CONUS, will traverse our area this evening and tonight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower to mid 30s across our northern and northwestern counties, to the upper 30s across the southern part of our area. At this point, splitting the difference between the cooler NAM and warmer GFS MOS, and going with highs mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
247 PM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 Weak ridging over the region will continue to bring warm temperatures and gusty westerly winds to the Plains while the valleys of southwest Montana struggle to climb out of the teens. The next cold front sweeps through the region during the day on Saturday with mainly mountain snow expected.
Periodic snow in the ridges and along and north of I-80 will not result in significant accumulations as production will be inefficient with the the snow growth zone below the level of saturation.
Although surface ridging will be over the area, the high center will still be to our northwest tonight, and will not be the ideal situation for decoupling. On Saturday, temperatures near the top of the mixed layer are expected to be at least as warm or warmer than today, and do not see any reason why our max temps will not follow suit. This will support ridge/valley differences.
These somewhat mild temperatures look to continue through the weekend as relatively strong warm air advection ahead of the next system advects warmer temperatures, and increasing low-level moisture, into the Southern Plains.
Although this cloud cover should lift and dissipate to some extent, partly to mostly cloudy skies should keep most of the region from warming too much above where we are today with highs near normal in the lower to mid 60s. Clouds and patchy fog should quickly reform on Saturday evening to keep temperatures fairly steady overnight in the lower 50s.
In the meantime, scattered mid-level clouds embedded within northwest flow will continue to advance overhead through the remainder of the afternoon and evening until thinning out overnight as the strong downstream upper low advects eastward. This will help to rebound surface temperatures slightly Saturday afternoon, with above-freezing highs possible south of Highway 50.
As a result will just keep the low PoPs in the northern valley and NW MN. With warmer air moving in aloft and at the surface combined with a mid level dry layer, light freezing drizzle and drizzle will be possible along with light snow on Saturday night.
6-hour rainfall amounts are generally around a half inch in the higher terrain of the North Bay and Santa Cruz mountains, with less elsewhere. Weak high pressure is then forecast to build in during the weekend resulting in mostly dry weather along with mild daytime temperatures.
West flow aloft will gradually shift to the southwest ahead of a Pacific low pressure trough moving inland into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. Temperatures will cool as a cold front pushes the snow south.
Other than the continued cold, not much else will be going on through tomorrow with high pressure remaining in place.
By 9 am, Mid State temperatures ranged mostly from the middle teens into the lower 20s.
Precipitation looks to be found across eastern Oregon and the mountains of southwestern Idaho today with a weak moisture push ahead of the approaching trough. Forecast still on track for now with the stronger trough arriving tonight. MVFR and local IFR conditions in scattered rain, snow, and freezing rain across Baker County Oregon and the west central Idaho mountains. Freezing rain possible in the valleys west and north of KBOI.