Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN FINALLY PUNCH INLAND OVER NORTHERN CA TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST AND BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND MAY REACH 90 FOR SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN KFAR AND KGFK. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE LOW PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E-SE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.
ON THE LARGE SCALE AN A TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE TO ZONAL PATTERN IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY THOUGH THE DAY AND TEMPS ARE WARMING UP TO THE LOW 40S. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS S TX ON TUE. THE RIDGE TONIGHT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHILE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH FROM THE NE INTO CENTRAL NE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED GUSTING TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS TO HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR TOMORROW THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE DROPPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK. THE WEAK WAVE CAUSING THESE SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE ~40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALTHOUGH A SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER CELLS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10KFT. LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE FROM RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ALASKA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 1 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE EASTERN END OF A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT NEAR OUR REGION. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A BROAD, FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST.
500 MB RIDGING WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTHWEST A STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL DIG DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST REGION. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGING AND THE SURFACE WAA FROM THE S-SE WILL MAINTAIN STEADILY INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TO THE LOWER ATMS LEVELS WITH THE REST OF THE ATMS LAYERS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL HOLD THE POPS DOWN TO ZERO THROUGH TUES NIGHT. THE MAV/MET AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS COMING IN A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE OTHER TWO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS PROG CIGS TO ACTUALLY LIFT SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 08-12Z IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING.
BROAD SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS COMMENCED THOUGH THE TRUE WARM FRONT STILL RESIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO EAST TX. POPS RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SUBTLE S/WV FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA COINCIDENT WITH A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT.
PUSHING THE HIGHEST POPS AND WEATHER TO THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY.
WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. WARMER TEMPS WILL START TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH MID 70S WORKING INTO PARTS OF THE DELTA LATER TODAY.
447 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOWFALL. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AIR RAISING SNOW LEVELS AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS START BECOMING MORE FREQUENT LATE IN MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THE TROUGH NEARLY OVERHEAD THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT AND THEREFORE THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
1211 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/ THIS MORNING HAD A MUCH WARMER START IN THE MID/UPPER 5OS. THEY WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS STILL IN PLACE IN NE AL. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
Unsettled and cool conditions will persist through midweek then a drier and warmer pattern will return by the end of the week. There are some breaks in the overcast across the lower basin and Palouse this afternoon. /Kelch 18Z TAFS: Wrap around precipitation associated with a slow moving low pressure system will impact the airports of the Inland Northwest through 00z.
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD THIS MORNING.
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW IS INDICATED FOR LATE WEEK AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED UNTIL COOL HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH DRIES THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. A SFC WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
338 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015 WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS OVERTAKEN THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A PARKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPLIES OUR AREA WITH A STREAM OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. FROM ST CLOUD NORTH TOWARD LONG PRAIRIE WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THE 700MB LAYER LOOKS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERRUNNING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE LOW OVERCAST SKIES.
151 PM MDT MON APR 6 2015 PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SATURATED SOUNDINGS AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH DEPTHS AROUND 3000 FEET SHOW SOME DRIZZLE FORMATION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH UNDER MORE CLEAR SKIES.
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. STNRY E-W ORIENTED SFC FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN GRTLKS TO A LEE LOW OVER WRN KS IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ESE FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO AND STRENGTHENS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC DROPPING DOWN TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON COAST. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
524 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT WITH THE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. BUT WITH FALLING PRESSURES AND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIDING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODEL FORECAST HIGHS UNDER CLOUD COVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SEEM CORRECT. THE HIGHEST CAPES ARE PROGGED INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL START TO MOVE SOUTH TO OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
A BROAD AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
403 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTENING TO OCCUR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU SUNRISE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFF TOWARD EASTERN CANADA.
342 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT WITH THE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WX CONDITIONS ARE THEN XPCTED PAST MID WEEK AS A STRONG SLY FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE REGION AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS ROTATES EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE CONTINUING TO POINT TO ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES INTO A STRONG/MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AT BEST ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES.
/ISSUED 1005 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/ WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTH TO THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING LEAVING A NICE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVER SE TX. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S LOOK GOOD AS CLOUDS SCT OUT EACH MORNING.
Also, a bit of patchy freezing fog is possible in areas which received more precipitation today, such as the Flathead/Mission valleys.
AS A 700MB- 500MB TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND SUPPRESSES VERTICAL MOTION. AS SOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS IS BEST REFLECTED IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH PUSHES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING. OFFERING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
LARGE VARIATIONS ALSO EXIST WITH WESTERN US UPPER FLOW WHICH TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE AMOUNT OF LEE TROUGH CYCLOGENSIS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON WED.
FROM AN EXTREMELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FOR EVERYONE.
MOST AREAS ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING CENTERED OVER ALABAMA. AND A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. EXPECT FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
HINTING AT SOME SORT OF WAVE FORMING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT AND BRINGING THE INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND THE WAVY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE THE WEATHER DRIVERS FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONE IS THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND-LOWER ST.
420 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015 BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF EARLY APRIL HAVE BEEN IN FULL SWING TODAY AS SFC LEESIDE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS.
THE NORTHWEST ZONES APPEAR AFFECTED BY INDUCED HEIGHT FALLS FROM SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN TO THE WEST. SO THESE ARE THE LOGICAL AREAS TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO NRN AR/SRN MO AND EWRD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVED IN OVERNIGHT. THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS STILL OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST WITH A BROAD TROF. C H85 TEMPS WERE OVER TX WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE NOSING TOWARD OMA AT +12 DEG C. THE SURFACE FRONT WAS NEAR YANKTON TO ONL WITH A DRYLINE NEAR KGBD KANSAS AND THE WARM FRONT FROM SALINA TO WICHITA WITH THE CLEARING NEAR THERE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH 70S AND 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF COAST GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR FREEZING.
THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO SPREAD FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX CONSIDERABLY FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE OK/KS BORDER. STORMS AGAIN SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING MUCH OF WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THE DRY LINE WILL EVENTUALLY GET OVERTAKEN BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS OFFER THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WITH CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 259 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015 EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH A BRISK EASTERLY WIND DUE TO THE REGION BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
Unsettled and cool conditions will persist through midweek then a drier and warmer pattern will return by the end of the week. The lower valleys across the northeast WA counties and Okanogan Highlands are above freezing and will continue to warm today. /Kelch 18Z TAFS: Wrap around precipitation associated with a slow moving low pressure system will impact the airports of the Inland Northwest through 00z.
Due to the low coverage, have not included mention in TAFs.
High pressure is forecast to briefly build into the region on Sunday with peaks of sunshine from time to time in the afternoon and continued well above normal high temperatures.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS THE FLOW WAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHARPEN AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE CHARACTER WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY MORNING. NW COMPONENT TO ENABLE SUNDAY'S MAXES TO REACH AROUND 70F WITH AREAS NEAR THE OK BORDER POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE PRONOUNCED AMPLIFICATION AS IT GETS FORCED E OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT BY AN INTENSE.
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND A LITTLE GUSTY BEHIND THE TROUGH. WE START OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.
123 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Energy now cresting a broad ridge over the desert southwest will move over the upper midwest tonight and begin to carve out a 500mb trough just west of the Great Lakes late Sunday.
311 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AND WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM WITH NO FREEZING EXPECTED.
THE MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS THEN INDICATE THAT THE LOW DECK WILL BEGIN LIFTING AFTER 15Z.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL STILL EXITS TONIGHT. WILL BE ANALYZING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TONIGHT/SUN.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY TODAY INTO THE LOWER 70S.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SO THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BUT MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED COOLER. WHILE A SOUTHERN WAVE MAY HELP GENERATE SOME PRECIP IN THE WARMER AIR OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. BUT COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS MILD COLD ADVECTION BRINGS DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
956 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR SOME REASON.
High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds.
Have also dropped the High Wind Warning in southwest Montana.
336 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL TONIGHT ACROSS A PORTION OF SE NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CONFIDENCE FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
AN UPPER JET WILL INTENSIFY A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND, AND DRIVE SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRIMMED 10-15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES ITS COOL BIAS WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 60S AND WILL USE THE WARMER GFS WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE NAM WITH TEMPS OF LATE.
359 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT ON SUNDAY.
329 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) The low clouds have finally dissipated, yielding sunny skies this afternoon across West Central Texas. An hour or two of low clouds may make as a far west as San Angelo, however boundary layer flow will veer quickly to west-southwest keeping the low clouds further east. For Sunday, A cold front will move south across West Central Texas. Another nice day in store with highs ranging from the lower 60S across the Big Country to the lower 60S along the I-10 corridor.
AS EVIDENCED BY A CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY SUNDAY. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING SET TO PUSH IN LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION WITH TEMPS AROUND 8C TO 12C AT 850MB. WENT A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMER TEMPS TODAY.
307 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND MUCH OF OF SUNDAY. THE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A GOOD BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH WINDS REMAINING UP PREVENTING DE-COUPLING. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA.
258 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015 OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOW THE HIGH WIND EVENT IS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS AROUND CONVERSE COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FORM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY MORNING.
77 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE LOW MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING THEN SWITCH MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES BEFORE A LOW IS SPAWNED FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTS FROM TEXAS CLEAN UP TO SIBERIA.
12Z INL/GRB/MPX SOUNDING HAD DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER A LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY THOUGH KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. BUT ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRENDING TO A WESTERN RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WITH PERIODS OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST.