Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, scattered showers and storms can be expected to develop along and behind the cold front late afternoon tomorrow through early Thursday. With the potential for some increased cloud cover tomorrow, trended temps a shave cooler which brought it down from the 95th percentile, down to the 75th percentile which still holds nearly the whole area near or above the 100 degree mark. A slightly cooler day expected Thursday with temps remaining just shy of the 100 degree mark, in the mid 90s area wide. The slight relief to the heat on Thursday will be short lived as the upper ridge quickly rebuilds over the region, with temperatures returning to the upper 90s and low 100s throughout the extended periods.
303 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 The August sun and southwest breezes of 10-15 mph will boost temperatures into the lower 90s today in our position west of high pressure slipping off the East Coast. An approaching upper trough and weakening surface cold front may introduce a few showers to southern Indiana after midnight. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s.
High pressure will keep the area dry today. A weak cold front will bring the risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon.
Today: With the ridge axis situated more northeast, any potential steering flow continues to be very light. Thanks to an upper level trough, plenty of moisture should be available again today with PWAT values forecasted to range from 1.
148 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain control of our weather pattern for the rest of the week. We can expect predominately afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage generally over the higher terrain. These waves will have to offset a capped llvl profile outside the mtns for convective initiation, while the mtn ridges will remain abv the inversion.
Discussion: Heights are generally expected to increase today with slightly warmer temperatures area-wide and a mostly clear sky. Slight chance/chance PoPs will be limited to the higher elevations and the valley mostly south of Interstate 40 where the HREF guidance shows MLCAPE up to around 2000 J/Kg during the peak afternoon heating.
High pressure will remain anchored over the Four Corners, leading to warm and dry conditions over South Texas.
Increased west and northwest winds will envelope the area this morning behind yesterday's cold front. Winds will start to taper off towards midday as the bulk of wind aloft pushes east with the mid level trough, first in eastern ND and perhaps lingering into the afternoon hours within Minnesota. Ridging aloft quickly returns behind the departing trough by Thursday.
/issued 251 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022/ Upper level ridging remains in control this afternoon with the center of the ridge squarely over the Four Corners region at 18z. Aloft, a semi-permanent upper high that has been waffling from the southern Great Plains to the Four Corners for the past week is poised to redevelop more toward KS and MO late this week while leaving us along the southern edge of a zonal ridge axis.
1021 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 The cold front has moved to the southeast of the forecast area. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central Canada, with a warm front stretching across eastern ND into MN and a cold front across western ND to southern MT. Hot conditions return late week as ridge rebuilds northward over the central/southern Plains and into the northern Plains.
PROB30 groups were retained at the LA sites where convective probabilities are higher, with just VC mention at BPT where the effects of the upper ridge should be sufficient to limit coverage. Rest of the evening and overnight expected to be generally quiet, with lows mostly in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots across east central LA in the lower 70s.
The weakness between the Atlantic and central Rocky ridges will win out with troughing setting up across our area on Thursday.
High pressure will build overhead on Wednesday and introduce a slight drying trend to the region, along with a temperature warmup. Dry air and subsidence under the high will squash convection on Wednesday across the CWA. A few storms will likely develop amongst the higher peaks of the northwest mountains, the eastern San Juans and along the divide. On Thursday, the high pressure center will drift over eastern Colorado as a strong low pressure system moves along the northern tier of the US and southern Canada. The southerly flow on the western periphery of the high will help replenish moisture across the area. Convection may develop on the higher terrain further north, but could struggle to drift over the valleys.
(Today) Will start off this morning in the lower 70s and patchy fog, with a few locations that could see locally dense spots. An upper level ridge remains anchored across the west and central U. with another ridge in the central Atlantic. Daytime highs will be in the lower 90s, however with the moisture in place, it will feel more like 100 degrees.
Reimer Weak showers and mid clouds were gradually shifting south and east this afternoon as a cold front continued to push southeast. Heading into Wednesday, high pressure building over the region will bring temperatures into the 90s once again, with relative humidity down into the teens.
(Today) Warm start this morning with temperatures still in the lower 80s in some locations. Afternoon min RH should remain above critical levels (30 to 35 percent) and this is also co-located with areas that received some of the higher rainfall totals over the weekend.
Today, ridging in the Gulf of Mexico is brining a weak NW steering flow, allowing both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to push their ways inland. Low temperatures will be normal, mid 70s inland and a few degrees warmer on the coast. High pressure ridging to our southeast is forecasted to shift northward and be to our east Wednesday, and to our northeast Thursday. The temperature trend will continue this week with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s on the coast.
244 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Heat index values should reach around 105 degrees today over much of central and southeast Illinois, ahead of a cold front which will approach from the northwest. Current focus is off to our north with a couple MCS's near the warm front, but our action will accompany a cold front that is currently across Minnesota and South Dakota. Several of the high-res models are in decent agreement with lines/clusters of convection developing over central and northeast Illinois by mid afternoon, though a few also have a component over Missouri that could come into play during the evening.
This high moves to the east this afternoon and a dry warm front moves into the area from the west which will bring west winds 15 to 20 mph in the west. Warm front moves to the east tonight and upper ridge moves into the region. An afternoon and evening cold front will bring gusty SW winds in the afternoon ahead of the front followed by gusty west winds behind the front that combined with low RH will definitely create critical fire wx conditions in the west. Ridge moves east on Thursday turning flow aloft to the SW in the afternoon.
308 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Main upper trough was moving east-southeast across the northern Plains with broad upper ridging over the Desert Southwest per recent water vapor imagery. A modified cold front was pushing through northwestern portions of the state at 07Z with some gusts to south winds and quite warm temps in the 80s ahead of the front.
Rest of the evening and overnight expected to be generally quiet, with lows mostly in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots across east central LA in the lower 70s. Kept PROB30 groups at the LA sites where convective probabilities are higher, with just VC mention at BPT where the effects of the upper ridge should be sufficient to limit coverage.
Westerly flow aloft carries a short wave trough across the Central High Plains region this evening with a transition to a high pressure center aloft over the central and southern High Plains regions Wednesday and Thursday. Hot high temperatures today in the middle 90s to lower 100s will be followed by highs several degrees cooler from the upper 80s to the middle 90s on Wednesday after the showers move through tonight along with a cold front moving through the area during the day on Wednesday. Highs in the lower to upper 90s are expected on Thursday. Overnight lows cool a few degrees Wednesday night, but will range from the lower 60s to the lower 70s with dry conditions expected from Wednesday through Thursday night.
206 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Drier and warmer weather returns through midweek apart from isolated showers and storms near the coast.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500mb ridge centered near the Four Corners region will continue to build into the region through the period. Highs today and Thursday will remain above normal generally ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the beaches, to the mid to upper 90s across the Lower Valley and triple digits along and west of I-69C/US 281. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast.
334 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 High pressure over Upper Michigan has kept much of the fcst area dry through early afternoon. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu with a ridge over the Rockies. The trough remains over the Great Lakes region 00z Fri with the ridge moving into the northern plains. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southern U. 12z Sat with a trough in the Pacific NW. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon and to the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue. Ridging builds into the Rockies 12z Wed. A cold front will move through Lake Superior today with the wind up to 30 knots from the west today.
Although CAMs continue to handle this environment poorly, illustrating just how fickle summer time convection can be across the SE, chance PoPs continue to look warrantied given the influence from the weak boundary, weak disturbances rounding the upper ridges to our east and west, differential heating and over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE painted over the region by the HREF. This puts the area sandwiched between the 2 systems and near the base of a long-wave trough through much of the extended.
230 AM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 The subtropical ridge will expand northward today and Thursday. On Thursday, the subtropical ridge continues to build into the region ahead of trough pulling into the Pacific Northwest.
Today through Thursday night Another hot and humid day is expected across the forecast area as upper level high pressure remains parked over the four corners region. Precipitation chances increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the north. Cloud cover and precipitation chances will keep temperatures cooler on Thursday.
Discussion: Early this morning, a upper level trough is moving through the northern/central Plains and will move into the Upper Midwest today. This will force a attendant cold front into the area late this morning bringing showers and thunderstorms to northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas this morning. Coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will yield heat indices in the 100 to 106 range. As the cold front moves into areas where heat, and consequently extreme instability of 2500-4000J/Kg of MUCAPE resides, strong to isolated severe storms will be possible. During the day Thursday a upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the western High Plains allowing for subtle height rises. This will help make for another warm day in the wake of the cold frontal passage with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper high over New Mexico will begin moving east today approaching West Texas. The maximum subsidence area on southeastern edge of the high will be over our CWA today causing above normal temperatures with a few locations reaching low end Heat Advisory criteria. A weak impulse rounding the high will arrive this evening causing slightly greater areal coverage of showers and storms, mainly in southeastern New Mexico. The high continues moving east tonight allowing for slightly better access to Gulf of Mexico air to our southeast that will help decrease temperatures a couple of degrees.
123 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Dry today with high pressure, but warm and muggy conditions. The region will be in an expansive warm sector as a warm front lifts northeast toward the Lower Great Lakes this morning with afternoon temperatures rising in the upper 80s/lower 90s amidst dew points in the lower 70s across the lower elevations. Subtle warmer air around H850 should at least help to keep a lid on any potential convection today, despite the aforementioned juicy low level moisture. Storm chances will increase throughout the day Thursday as a trough and cold front approach from the north by evening hours.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 90 72 90 / 20 20 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 88 70 89 / 30 20 50 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 89 71 88 / 20 10 50 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 88 68 87 / 20 10 50 30 70.
Upper level ridging remains prominent and primarily stationary over the Four Corners bringing dry conditions back into the forecast today. A cold front will sweep across the region by this afternoon allowing for daytime highs to fall into the 90s for the forecast area. Once this upper level perturbation, LLJ, and surface cold front cross paths, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms may enter back into the region. Conditions dry out and temperatures increase as the upper level ridge shifts eastward into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday.
1226 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 High pressure remains in control over the area. Wed, a rinse and repeat pattern can be expected, w/ afternoon temps steadily rising at most locations into the upper 90s, w/ heat index values once again approaching 105 degrees or more, over portions of Wrn AR in the lower AR River Valley, Cntrl AR, N/Ern and S/Ern AR.
Also noted was large upper high pressure centered over the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, surface pre-frontal trough extended from the upper Midwest to western KS.
Skies will clear this afternoon and winds will shift to the north-northeast as a cold front pushes through the area. Despite this frontal passage, temperatures are still expected to be above average with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The highest rain chances appear to be Thursday, when a weakening cold front will sag south across Illinois and Indiana. This boundary may make it to the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri, especially if convective outflow boundaries reinforce it.
437 AM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 The subtropical ridge will expand northward today and Thursday. On Thursday, the subtropical ridge continues to build into the region ahead of trough pulling into the Pacific Northwest.
The center of this high will migrate north-northeast to near the 4 corners this afternoon keeping the area in east to southeast flow aloft. For today, the considerable cloud cover currently over the area will gradually diminish this morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain. Decent steering flow will propagate storms to the west into the lower deserts overnight into Thursday morning.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered over New Mexico and Arizona will expand eastward into west Texas today. The ridging aloft combined with slightly higher 850 mb temperatures will lead to afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is currently showing a broad, extended area of high pressure from the southern west coast area, east into the southern Plains. Latest models continue to show this ridge pushing eastward into the Plains region by Thu-Fri. As the dome of high pressure builds over the Plains, expecting hot, above normal conditions to persist in the short term.
High pressure on the eastern periphery of northern Great Lakes low pressure will result in warm and moist advection today. A decaying cold front attached to aforementioned low pressure will bring the risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will move south through the Central Plains and likely move into northern Oklahoma this evening.
Otherwise high pressure will dominate with light southerly winds. Today through Thursday night Another hot and humid day is expected across the forecast area as upper level high pressure remains parked over the four corners region. Precipitation chances increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the north. Cloud cover and precipitation chances will keep temperatures cooler on Thursday.
533 AM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Upper air analysis has northwest flow over the region, with mild ridging over the western CONUS. Boundary is expected to move through the region this morning as high pressure settles in over the Dakotas. As the high slides east of us today, increasing 850mb southerly flow may help spark some showers/storms late afternoon into the evening, however HRRR smoke shows increasing upper level smoke in the region, which may inhibit any development.
Models have the upper ridge to build into Colorado from the south and strengthen a tad today and tonight with 20-40 knot west- northwesterly flow aloft. The low level winds are progged to be northerly and northeasterly through the day, then drainage patterns overnight tonight.
This is coupled with an expected eastward retreat of the mid-level high center, which will produce cooler mid-level temperatures. A recipe for a more more active day, especially south of the Mogollon Rim where the higher moisture values will pool.
The August sun and southwest breezes of 10-15 mph will boost temperatures into the lower 90s today in our position west of high pressure slipping off the East Coast. An approaching upper trough and weakening surface cold front may introduce a few showers to southern Indiana after midnight. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s.
Today's weather will be driving by daytime heating and northward moving sea breeze, as upper level ridging remains dominant. Thursday, troughing to our north will nudge southward through the Tennessee Valley, potentially pushing a MCS southward early Thursday morning.
Otherwise, the persistent cutoff low pressure system offshore will wander away and westward allowing upper ridging over the SW US to re- establish over the area through the rest of the week. The bulk of the moisture appears to get absorbed into the cut-off low but global models are still refraining from any precipitation falling associated with this moisture.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop by midday into the afternoon hours with strong heating and dew points in the lower 70s yielding MLCAPEs of ~2000 J/kg.
623 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (Today) Will start off this morning in the lower 70s and patchy fog, with a few locations that could see locally dense spots. An upper level ridge remains anchored across the west and central U. with another ridge in the central Atlantic. Daytime highs will be in the lower 90s, however with the moisture in place, it will feel more like 100 degrees.
613 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (Today) Warm start this morning with temperatures still in the lower 80s in some locations. Afternoon min RH should remain above critical levels (30 to 35 percent) and this is also co-located with areas that received some of the higher rainfall totals over the weekend.
/issued 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500mb ridge centered near the Four Corners region will continue to build into the region through the period. Highs today and Thursday will remain above normal generally ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the beaches, to the mid to upper 90s across the Lower Valley and triple digits along and west of I-69C/US 281. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows some cyclonic spin to the mid-level flow over the Gulf Coast, where vorticity from the trough to our north was cutoff and likely enhanced by latent heating from yesterday's rounds of convection around the region.
625 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered over New Mexico and Arizona will expand eastward into west Texas today. The ridging aloft combined with slightly higher 850 mb temperatures will lead to afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
The low level ridge axis remains draped across the area and has lifted slightly northward from its position 24h ago. CAM-blended PoPs have a decent handle on this solution, focusing the highest storm chances west of Interstate 95. Favorable boating conditions today as Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL and the local Atlc waters.
533 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Heat index values should reach around 105 degrees today over much of central and southeast Illinois, ahead of a cold front which will approach from the northwest. Current focus is off to our north with a couple MCS's near the warm front, but our action will accompany a cold front that is currently across Minnesota and South Dakota. Several of the high-res models are in decent agreement with lines/clusters of convection developing over central and northeast Illinois by mid afternoon, though a few also have a component over Missouri that could come into play during the evening.
Therefore, KARA and KLFT should have the highest probability of seeing thunderstorms, especially after 03/18Z.
Shower and thunderstorm development is expected as we are to some extent under the influence of an upper level trough that is west of the Florida Peninsula. High pressure continues to our east and somewhat weakening. From the synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic will build slowly westward into the Southeastern states late this week and this weekend, resulting in gradually increasing east to southeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters. This is also tied for the lowest high temperature ever recorded in August.
Main upper trough was moving east-southeast across the northern Plains with broad upper ridging over the Desert Southwest per recent water vapor imagery. A modified cold front was pushing through northwestern portions of the state at 07Z with some gusts to south winds and quite warm temps in the 80s ahead of the front.
These two source are meeting over the Silver state helped by a upper trough offshore of the Pacific NW will give us the chances for showers and thunderstorms the next few days. Current model trend show that central NV would see the highest chances for seeing significant amounts of rainfall. Temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover as highs in the lower 90s are favored.
Mid-level ridging will gradually build across the Southern and Central U.
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 High pressure will shift further east tonight while the next frontal system approaches Thursday.
Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will generally extend across the western Atlantic to the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will persist across much of the region while lee troughing occurs well inland.
17z observations are showing a trough of low pressure roughly from Great Bend to Meade is the focus of producing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. kept in the slight POPs for areas south and east of Dodge City as the trough will slowly move to the south and east. Thursday will be a few degrees cooler given the northeast winds at the surface and 850 mb levels.
For later Thursday, the ridge continues to shift eastward into New Mexico toward the TX/OK panhandles.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Midlevel high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will continue to build across Deep South Texas through the short term period.
12z regional soundings support slightly warmer high temps today compared to yesterday and in line with current fcst.
High pressure on the eastern periphery of northern Great Lakes low pressure will result in warm and moist advection today. A decaying cold front attached to aforementioned low pressure will bring the risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening.