Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The greatest concentration of the lower MVFR ceilings appears to be across the Southern Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grande Plains and Hill Country as moisture pools against the higher terrain.
226 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Have updated the forecast to issue a Freezing Fog Advisory thru 14z for NE zones.
This is climatologically favored and also depicted by several of the high-resolution models such as the HRRR and RAP.
437 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 A low pressure system will move to the east today allowing precipitation to come to an end across the region. Precipitation will come to an end today as a low pressure system moves off to the east.
315 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 The 00z DTX sounding came in a bit warmer than advertised, with 3 C reported at 850 mb along with a dew pt depression of 1 C, which is still above 00z model initializations. Temperatures actually warmer immediately behind the low in the 40s across northern Indiana early this morning, setting the target for highs. With next upper level trough axis arriving on Friday, coupled with the westerly flow off lake Michigan, scattered instability showers are expected with the steep low level lapse rates generated. Despite 850 mb temps lowering to -6 C, lowest 1-2 kft still looks too warm to support snow during daytime hours per nam/gfs soundings, as highs look to be in the lower 40s.
Low clouds and fog will be problematic overnight with the low clouds lingering for several more hours across northwest Arkansas and possibly moving back into KFSM for a few hours.
Cold front arrives arrives around 15z, 16z and 17z Thursday at DHT, GUY, and AMA respectively: shifting surface winds to northwest with afternoon gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. /Issued 357 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ Dry west flow today ahead of an approaching trough on Thursday. There will be a brief cool down on Thursday night and Friday as a result of the cold air with the trough.
but should see an increase in AC/thin cirrus cigs after 00Z over E TX which should spread E across the remainder of the region just after the end of the TAF period ahead of another cold front approaching from the NW.
1253 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 Low pressure over southeast Wisconsin will move northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Thanksgiving Day. Persistent cyclonic low level flow/trapped moisture well into Thu as system occludes/anchors in northern Lower Michigan as trof axis takes on strong negative tilt. Slight additive lake enhancement with low level cold core across far nwrn cwa Friday along with low amplitude trof passage for low chance pops with warm boundary layer wetbulb temps likely affording mix ra/sn to ra by afternoon as warm surface based layer deepens, then diurnally back to mix before trof moves downstream/Lower Great Lakes.
256 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 With progressive flow across the CONUS bringing the interface between a ridge to the east and a short wave trough crossing the Rockies, the South Plains will see southwest to west winds today, although speeds will remain fairly modest. A slight increase in progged thicknesses from yesterday afternoon and the slight downslope component to the low level flow points to highs about 6-8 degrees warmer, in line with objective guidance. However, with the aforementioned upper trough moving across the central plains this afternoon, a cold front will move into the northern part of the forecast area, moderating temperatures slightly there.
A weak upper ridge moves across southern Wisconsin this morning, as weak trough moves across the U. Main concern is with the mid level trough and any light precipitation late tonight.
105 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 Crossing low pressure is expected to bring rain to the area tonight through part of Thanksgiving.
Still have some patchy light rain in western Middle Tennessee as upper trough axis down through eastern Middle Tennessee this evening. Trough will work east next few hours with rain chances dwindling after midnight and mainly eastern areas and plateau. Cold front finally getting into western Tennessee and should continue eastward in the overnight hours.
Snow free areas could see temperatures in the 40s with slightly cooler temperatures where more snow cover exists. Longwave trough over the west coast will move into the Central Plains by the end of the period. Low amplitude longwave ridge remains over Hudson Bay/eastern Canada. Short wave trough south of the Aleutians will move across the northern Plains on Mon and Tue. Upper trough will hang around through Wed, and Thu in the eastern zones. Expecting to settle more on the lower end of that as the night goes on. The lower visibility will eventually spread northward towards KGFK and KTVF towards the early morning hours, so will have less than 1SM at those sites.
1235 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 Upper level short wave trough crosses overnight, outrunning a weak cold front that crosses Thanksgiving day. Lowered temperatures central and northern portions of the area early on overnight, which sit in shallow cool air, as warm front had not mixed down to the surface. Not much change to PoPs with causative upper level short wave trough moving through quickly overnight. Models have the warm front north of the area by late afternoon. In lingering low level moisture, have some showers sticking around Thursday night and Friday despite weak ridging aloft.
It will also be much warmer in the coastal and valley areas. Breezy and cooler over the weekend with a chance for showers as low pressure troughs move across Southern California. Northeast winds were beginning to surface in the higher mountains at 8 pm with gusts of 37 mph at Crestline Ridge in the San Bernardino County mountains.
1148 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2016 Low pressure over Illinois will weaken as it moves toward the Central Great Lakes tonight. An upper level trough will move through the Great Lakes Region on Friday, pulling a cold front south across the area.
/issued 949 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ CDFNT has now pushed east of SC LA, with drier and cooler air continuing to slowly filter in behind the boundary. By the afternoon on light northeast winds temps with be in the lower 70s most locations.
1126 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Weak southeasterly winds in advance of a cold front will allow stratus to back across north central Nebraska overnight and may provide for some patchy fog around dawn. Thursday night the northern plains trough continues to track towards the Great Lakes with ridge building across the Rockies.
Otherwise, expect a few high thin clouds and south-to-southeast winds gradually shifting around to west and finally northwest-to- north as a (dry) cold front moves through Oklahoma/north Texas. A cold front will bring a wind shift to northwest/west-central Oklahoma Thursday afternoon.
1115 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place Thursday evening. /ISSUED 858 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016/ High pressure was centered over SE TX this evening.
1235 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 High pressure will extend across the area through tonight.
Weak high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to the region Thanksgiving Day.
As it does, a cold front will move down the Plains approaching the northwestern part of the forecast area after sunset and sweeping through the southeast before dawn Friday. Moisture will be limited but there will be a slight chance of showers after midnight tonight southwest of a Breckenridge to Cameron line. Lows will range from the upper 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. Some low rain chances will linger into Friday morning south of a Breckenridge to Centerville line.
1155 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2016 Cold front is just west of STL metro area as of 19z and continues to track east across forecast area. Most of the dynamics and moisture will stay north of the area while the attendant cold front moves through, so have kept the forecast dry.
140 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 dense freezing fog is underway across Lincoln and Custer counties associated with a westward moving arctic cold front. a freezing fog advisory is in place for parts of southwest and south central Nebraska until 12z pending the progress of the front. dense freezing fog is underway across Lincoln and Custer counties associated with a westward moving arctic cold front. Weak southeasterly winds in advance of a cold front will allow stratus to back across north central Nebraska overnight and may provide for some patchy fog around dawn. Thursday night the northern plains trough continues to track towards the Great Lakes with ridge building across the Rockies.
207 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will move off the coast tonight. A cold front will stall over northern sections Thursday night, followed by a stronger front Friday night.
Extremely Dangerous Winter Storm Will Severely Impact Holiday Overview: A powerful upper-level low pressure system is lifting into western Colorado at this hour. Model sounding profiles suggest a deep warm layer aloft which could mean freezing rain or sleet initially, depending on the depth of the subfreezing layer. Conditions will likely require an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning, but with a threat of freezing rain/sleet in the near term we felt the Winter Storm wording was best.
Today: Forecast Confidence = Medium Potent upper low continues to eject eastward out of the intermountain west. Initial concern today will be the freezing drizzle potential across far northern Iowa. Latest sfc obs showing temperatures generally at or above freezing south of about US 18. the t/td profile is hoovering near freezing from KCCY to KMCW to KEST and deepening saturation in the low levels is leading to patchy freezing drizzle. The current Freezing Rain Advisory runs through noon. The highest risk for severe weather will likely be across western Iowa.
Significant moisture in the low levels will result in the redevelopment of fog late in the forecast period. The stationary front that has been parked just north of our area the last few days has finally started to advance northward as a warm front. Rain chances will begin to increase from the west early tomorrow morning as a surface front associated with a upper closed low advancing through the Northern Plains and into Southern Canada approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1020 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure to our north will ridge into the region today into Monday night.
The 12Z MFL sounding shows shallow moisture in the lower levels with dry air aloft. /issued 253 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016/ High pressure will strengthen this Christmas Day into tonight over the western Atlantic waters.
Far wrn WI is experiencing freezing drizzle with icing on roadways. Farther to the east, there are some minor slick spots over portions of south central WI at this time but not sure if it's from freezing drizzle or just wet roads freezing. Will include patchy freezing drizzle or drizzle in the forecast for several hours this morning mainly to the west of the Milwaukee area. Strong cyclogenesis will occur this morning over CO as a deep polar trough over the Desert Southwest lifts newd into the Great Plains. The low will deepen to 982 mb once it reaches SD and will then occlude and move to nw MN by 12z Mon. The first round of rain will be from middle afternoon into the early evening via warm, moist advection and frontogenesis in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere.
411 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Upper trough passing over the Great Basin early this morning. This trough will quickly lift NE passing over the Rockies later in the day reaching the plains tonight and on to the Canadian border by early Monday. Will continue the High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtns in effect Eddy Co. Temperatures will be warmer than usual for December with highs mainly in the 60s.
717 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region this Christmas Day.
Low level east flow and a weak coastal trough produced isolated showers that affected portions of the coast early this morning. Slightly increased low level flow is forecast by tonight as stronger high pressure builds over the eastern seaboard. This should lessen the affect of the weak coastal trough, so conditions for small craft operation look poor over most of the waters later tonight and early Monday morning.
Blizzard Conditions expected this afternoon and evening for Latest 00z and 06z model guidance continues to support intermittent snow during the day today before steadier snow approaches from the southeast and expanding northwest this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks into the Dakotas. Additionally, as low pressure tracks downstream, expect a tight pressure gradient to set up over these locations helping to drive gusty north winds. Given some degree of uncertainty on the westward extent of the highest snowfall rates, opted to leave Daniels, W.
642 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure centered over Lake Huron will move off to the east today. This will allow a warm front to lift north across the region tonight. Near record warm temperatures will occur on Monday before a cold front moves through Monday night. Low clouds remain entrenched across the region north of a warm front near the Kentucky-Tennessee border. So temperatures in far southern counties may be a bit warmer than yesterday, but most locations will see highs near persistence with clouds remaining. Warm front will lift across the entire area overnight. A band of showers will develop along a pre-frontal trough and move southeast through the afternoon. Progress of the precipitation will slow into Monday night until a cold front overtakes the pre-frontal trough.
CIGs may actually continue to gradually lower as the low levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten. More robust convection ahead of a strong cold front will move into the area after 26/06z and will slowly advance southeast through the end of the period. /09/ Early this morning a warm front has lifted off to the Northeast away from the Four State Region, but in its wake a strong Southerly flow of moisture is feeding into the area and into the nations mid section. The forward progress of the cold front will slow as the main energy from the departing upper closed low allowing the boundary to continue supplying showers and thunderstorms.
542 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 08z/2am surface analysis shows 995mb low over Colorado with warm front extending southeastward into Oklahoma/Arkansas. The low is progged to deepen to around 982mb as it tracks into South Dakota by early this evening, gradually pulling the warm front northward into central Illinois. Powerful storm system will continue tracking northeastward across the Upper Midwest tonight, with trailing cold front not reaching central Illinois until Monday morning. Thin line of convection is still expected to develop ahead of the slowly approaching cold front, so have increased PoPs to likely/categorical after midnight. Before the boundary passes, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s east of I-55. Further west, readings will fall into the 40s during the afternoon as a cooler airmass arrives.
but then quickly fill in as the lower 2k foot layer saturates back up with a cooling (post-sunset) surface. /ISSUED 319 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ It is an unseasonably warm and muggy start to the day across all of Southeast Texas with 3 AM temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s (normal December 25th low temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s inland and in the upper 40s at the coast).
A warm front was subjectively analyzed at 09z from just north of Monticello, to El Dorado, to just north of Mena.
506 AM MST Sun Dec 25 2016 Mostly cloudy skies are being reported around the forecast area this morning as a surface cold front and upper level low continue to impact the weather over Eastern Utah and Western Colorado. Southerly winds continue to flow into Western Colorado ahead of the surface cold front which is currently located just west of the Utah and Colorado boarder. The current Infrared satellite image is showing the center of the upper level low positioned over Carbon County Utah. According to the 0600Z NAM12 and GFS20 this ascent will dissipate later this morning as the cold front and upper level low continue to push east. NAM BUFR Soundings for Grand Junction Airport show the entire atmospheric profile below freezing and saturated through at least 17,000 feet MSL. These parameters support convective snow behind the cold front.
IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail today with scattered showers developing this afternoon in advance of the Pacific cold front. Current temperatures are running about 15-25F warmer than 24 hours ago.
1010 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure centered over Lake Huron will move off to the east today. This will allow a warm front to lift north across the region tonight. Near record warm temperatures will occur on Monday before a cold front moves through Monday night. Scattered rain showers associated with the incoming warm front currently extend from south-central Kentucky to central Illinois. Temperatures trends were adjusted slightly, mainly to slow the rise over the next few hours, with max temps a degree or so cooler than the previous forecast in some locations. Warm front will lift across the entire area overnight. A band of showers will develop along a pre-frontal trough and move southeast through the afternoon. Progress of the precipitation will slow into Monday night until a cold front overtakes the pre-frontal trough.
A Pacific cold front continues to move east across SE NM and should clear the area later this morning. /issued 411 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ Upper trough passing over the Great Basin early this morning. This trough will quickly lift NE passing over the Rockies later in the day reaching the plains tonight and on to the Canadian border by early Monday. Will continue the High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtns in effect Eddy Co. Temperatures will be warmer than usual for December with highs mainly in the 60s.
A maritime tropical air mass is present at the surface, with a deep current of moderate easterly winds along the southern flank of a robust anticyclone. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures near 70F. Breezy, mild weather will persist this afternoon, with high temperatures well above average, in the lower 80s. A sprawling continental high pressure system will prevail across the southeastern United States and western North Atlantic from this afternoon through Monday.
1055 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Strong high pressure will build from the north today through Monday while a coastal trough develops offshore.
927 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure building southeastward from central Canada will provide the eastern seaboard with pleasant weather today and tonight.
620 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure to our north will ridge into the region today into Monday night.
A low pressure system well offshore will remain west of the California coast through early this week, but will spread clouds across the area beginning this morning and there may be some virga aloft today as well.
517 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Warm front lifts across the area this afternoon and tonight.
528 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 IFR conditions are quickly lifting to MVFR south of a warm front which was near the KS-OK border this morning. /issued 355 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016/ Visibility is increasing south of the warm front with dense fog left only in northern Oklahoma.
545 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Today: Early this morning scattered light showers developed just north of a warm front that is draped across Northern OK. A deep negatively-tilted upper-deck trof that has been discussed for about a week is still expected to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it surges northeast from AZ & NM to the Nebraska/SD border. With an equally intense surface cyclone situated over Eastern CO, the lower-deck southwest flow will increase considerably to not only scour the fog but enable richer moisture to continue surging further into the Central Plains. As the vicious cyclone crosses the Nebraska/SD border this afternoon, a Pacific cold front will surge east/southeast into KS. Scattered to numerous showers will occur ahead of the associated surface dry-line/cold front, which will sweep east across the area this afternoon.
The low level flow is slightly stronger than yesterday so the sea breeze will struggle to develop and we'll therefore see temperatures warm up into the 80s even close to the coast with the possibility of a few more record highs.
Very light freezing drizzle that was reported earlier this morning in the eastern part of the state worked its way west towards Bismarck, and was observed at the office. The models have been fairly consistent in bringing the warmer air into the southern James River Valley, and there is an Ice Storm Warning posted for LaMoure, McIntosh and Dickey counties for today into tonight. The lowest amounts are in the southern James River Valley due to the warmer air. Winds will increase this afternoon and especially tonight as the low passes. Freezing rain and sleet expected to impact KJMS Sunday.
952 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Warm front lifts across the area this afternoon and tonight.
It is going to be a very cold start for Christmas Day in the Sierra and western Nevada with widespread low temperatures well below freezing and many snow covered valleys registering below zero this morning.
556 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region this Christmas Day.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 55 63 56 / 10 10 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 52 65 55 / 20 10 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 68 51 64 55 / 20 10 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 45 63 50 / 50 10 10 50.
645 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure building southeastward from central Canada will provide the eastern seaboard with pleasant weather today and tonight.
641 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 High pressure to our north will ridge into the region today into Monday night.
1048 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region this Christmas Day.
Strong ridging in place today over the Southeast while a deep trough digs into the Western US. The deep trough with associated cold front will approach Central AL on Monday evening, increasing cloud cover.
High pressure moves out of Canada pushing most of the moisture to the south. High pressure drops southeast Wednesday night with upper ridge building to the west.
600 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 High temperatures will increase to well above normal through Wednesday with high pressure off the Southeast U. An approaching cold front will bring the risk for showers and thunderstorms.
A broad upper trough is currently moving over the area and will continue to push east of the region by late this morning or early this afternoon. It looks like there is a secondary cold front, where winds turn more to the northwest, moving into far northwestern Missouri early this morning. With all this said, it looks like high temperatures may be about 5 degrees cooler than previously forecast, given increased cloud cover and modest cold advection. Higher clouds are obscuring the low clouds and fog across northern Missouri but interpolating observation sites from southern Iowa and the few in northern Missouri suggest the northern tier of counties may be seeing some dense fog. Models continue to show a narrow corridor of snow associated with a frontogenetic zone as a quick-moving upper trough moves through the area Wednesday.
701 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 A strengthening low pressure system will move into Lower Michigan today, causing unseasonably warm temperatures, areas of fog, showers, and a few thunderstorms across our area during this time frame. Much colder temperatures will move into the area by Wednesday, along with a chance of snow, as an upper level trough moves through the area.
1014 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 A strengthening low pressure system will move into Lower Michigan today, causing unseasonably warm temperatures, areas of fog, showers, and a few thunderstorms across our area during this time frame. Much colder temperatures will move into the area by Wednesday, along with a chance of snow, as an upper level trough moves through the area.