Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is an upper level closed low stalled out over eastern Texas through Saturday night before bringing some upper level clouds and possibly some scattered showers over the far Gulf waters Saturday afternoon. This low will end up getting sheared apart late Saturday as it gets sandwiched between an upper level ridge over the Mid-Atlantic, Eta in the eastern Gulf/Caribbean, and a large upper level trough digging down into the Great Basin. Upper level ridging builds into the area with the end of the upper low Saturday night and a plume of deeper moisture to the east will be slowly spreading west as a deep upper trough drops into NV/AZ.
As we get through sunrise, the fog is expected to spread a bit farther east towards the Highway 65 corridor.
Early morning satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds streaming across the Northern Plains with a broad H5 ridge in place. A weak cold front will drop south across the state today which should cool temperatures a bit from what we have experienced the last few days.
Forecast highs are right around or near records for Madison and Milwaukee, with highs in the low 70s.
At this hour, a large ridge of high pressure extended west from the central Atlantic states thru the TN valley into the lower MS valley. Today, the ridge will shift a bit further north allowing a warmer and more moist east-southeast flow to develop. High temperatures should climb into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Dew points will also be climbing into the lower to middle 50s. For tonight, light easterly flow will persist, and dew points should remain in the lower 50s most of the night. Thus, expect low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Dew points should climb into the lower 60s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the four state region today into Saturday.
Dry conditions will continue today into tonight as ridging aloft slowly transitions eastward across the Central Plains, gradually giving way to a southwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains by early Saturday morning. Low level southerlies will develop early this morning and increase throughout the day as lee side troughing develops/strengthens in eastern Colorado. This will draw warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid teens(C) in central Kansas to near 20C near the Colorado border. A dry pattern continues through the weekend despite an amplified upper level trough of low pressure edging slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 327 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Another warm, dry day is in store as high pressure continues to nose into the area from the east.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible along the coast with the seabreeze and especially offshore this afternoon and maybe again Saturday afternoon, although high pressure builds slightly west to east again Saturday, once again cutting off any rain chances.
420 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 Massive upper ridge will remain over the region through Saturday, with very warm and dry weather continuing. Upper trough continues to dig into the western CONUS, with unsettled SW flow developing. Weak ejecting impulses will waver the lee side trough over the region, supporting breezy conds at times, esp over NE WY and scentral SD. Main upper trough will slowly eject toward the region in a negative tilt fashion and will support increasing chances for rain and eventually some snow over the western third.
Today, the region will be sandwich between a large upper ridge across the eastern CONUS and a longwave trough digging along the western coast of the CONUS. Expect dry conditions to continue, despite the presence of an upper low meandering across SE Texas/SW Louisiana near the Texas/Louisiana border. Winds from the ESE should help bring an increase in moisture along with cloud cover and slightly warmer temperatues during the overnight period tonight into Saturday morning as lows will drop into the 50s areawide. The upper low will continue to meander near the same general region on Saturday. Some of this activity may rotate northward around the upper low into eastern portions of our CWA by Saturday afternoon.
248 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2020 A cold front will sweep through Central California today, bringing with it gusty winds and a much cooler air mass. An abrupt change in weather is expected today thanks to the arrival of a cold front. From run to run, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh computer model continues to depict a northwesterly wind surge in the San Joaquin Valley, with maximum wind speed values at 16z. High temperatures this afternoon should be around fifteen degrees cooler than yesterday. An upper-level area of low pressure will be located near Central California tonight and Saturday. This area of low pressure aloft will weaken to a trough of low pressure as it exits eastward Saturday night. Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers should develop throughout Central California Saturday afternoon under the cold core cyclone.
/issued 345 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ WV imagery shows an upper trough centered over the Arklatex, buttressed to the west by a ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Despite a cold front yesterday, KMAF still managed to top out at 85. The upper ridge over the area will move east over the next few days, courtesy of a trough off the PacNW coast that is forecast to dig down to central CA by Saturday.
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 520 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Another warm, dry day is in store as high pressure continues to nose into the area from the east.
(Today and tonight) In the upper levels, a low was dropping down across East TX/LA while a ridge was moving into West Texas, leaving our region in northerly flow aloft. With the upper ridge, we'll have mostly sunny skies today, and a similar 850 mb thermal ridge and southerly flow should lead to another warm day (highs in the mid 70s to low 80s). However, surface ridging will build across the Mississippi Valley today, while low pressure develops in eastern Colorado, which will result in south to southeasterly winds around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Expect slightly warmer lows tonight in the low to mid 50s due to slightly better winds than this morning and partly cloudy skies, which should limit the amount of radiational cooling that occurs.
At the same time, an upper level ridge will build through the Ohio Valley until the ridge axis pushes into NY and PA. With 925 mb temperatures rising Saturday while the ridge axis slides into NY, afternoon temperatures should hit 68-73 degrees along and west of I-81. With high pressure ridging across the northeast, winds should be less gusty today.
High pressure ridge axis is draped across the southeast keeping the weather quiet this morning. /28/ Precipitation will return to the region on Saturday as a weakening upper level low center positioned just to the west of the region helps to spread moisture into the ArkLaMiss from the Gulf.
1015 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Dry and mostly sunny conditions acrs the area as high pres ridges over the SE CONUS. Temperatures have warmed to near 70 or into the lower 70s as of 10 AM. Overnight lows will be significantly warmer with that trend extending into the new week. Ridge then rebuilds over the area between a deep trof emerging over the western CONUS and tropical system Eta advancing northeast through the Caribbean and potentially into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Weak upper trof and associated cirrus currently pushing east across the Appalachians, giving way to a breaking ridge coming in north of a weak closed low on the Gulf Coast.
Warm and sunny again today with high pressure in control. Warm conditions will continue over the weekend under southwest flow and lingering high pressure.
1119 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a potent positively tilted mid- upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visibile/infrared satellite imagery reveal a developing tropical cyclone over the Western Caribbean, while the vorticity maxima remain confined along the coast near Belize (see CIMMS vort analyses). There is very little convergence in the low level kinematic fields, although the boisterous BL easterlies continue to produce enough moisture flux to maintain squall coverage.
1206 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: High pressure generally keeping the weather quiet. Concern for fg development in the southeast towards dawn given the higher dewpoints. High pressure ridge axis is draped across the southeast keeping the weather quiet this morning. /28/ Precipitation will return to the region on Saturday as a weakening upper level low center positioned just to the west of the region helps to spread moisture into the ArkLaMiss from the Gulf.
Mostly clear skies overnight should allow for a decent ridge/valley split. Lows should generally be in the lower-mid 40s, though a few of the typical colder spots could drop into the upper 30s. Aloft, wave breaking ridge will result in a dome of higher heights over the Ohio Valley.
Upper ridging will persist through tonight then transitions to southwest flow aloft as an upper trough digs into southern CA on Saturday. Increased moisture will help to keep daytime temperatures a little cooler for Saturday so expect highs in the mid 70s most locations. Southerly winds will increase Saturday across the region as an area of low pressure deepens lee of the Rockies.
Water vapor imagery clearly shows an upper level low has cut off near the TX/LA border and is forecast to remain nearly stationary through Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will shift east to the Mid Atlantic states overnight into Saturday. This moisture combined with modest upper level forcing from the upper low to the west will support a chance of showers across the area on Saturday.
Southerly flow increases across the area overnight as trough approaches the plains from the west and high pressure over the eastern US remains stationary. 925 hpa temperatures remain in the teens through the weekend yielding high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Have continued the trend of leaning on the warmer side of guidance through the weekend.
242 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 An upper level low over extreme SE TX tonight will gradually fill over the weekend and get stretched from the NW to the SE. Despite the slightly lower heights associated with the upper low, moisture remains sparse and generally to the E-SE of the center. Abundant sunshine on Saturday should allow temperatures to warm back into the lower 80's. Insulation from the increasing clouds coupled with a light onshore flow will yield warmer overnight low temperatures.
high pressure across the southeast United States will provide light east to northeast winds across the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Saturday. Some isolated showers will develop offshore the lower Texas coast through the short term but not much in the way of rain chances are expected across the CWA. Long period swells offshore the lower Texas coast will continue to provide a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast tonight into Saturday. Tides along the lower Texas coast are currently running about 0.
With high pressure ridging across the northeast, winds should be less gusty today. A short wave trough aloft will pass east of NY and PA early this morning taking mid to high clouds with it leading to mostly sunny skies. With continued high pressure and clear skies / light winds temperatures will plummet in our valleys much more so than our hills tonight.
Confidence is not high regarding how widespread the low ceilings will be, so this has not been included within the TAFs at this time. Today the light and variable upper level flow driven, by a ridge that has been over the region the past few days, will slowly transition to southwesterly flow as an upper level low digs down the California coast. Starting Saturday morning, high pressure will be situated over the Ohio Valley with a closed low across southeastern Texas.
A deepening upper level trough over the Intermountain West directs increasing moisture into the region. Increased moisture in the lower atmospheric layers lowers the fire danger slightly, but the strong winds and dry fuels keep fire concerns elevated.
Southerly flow aloft will reside over the area today ahead of an upper low to our west. It will remain dry for most areas, except portions of southeast Oregon will see some showers at times, especially in Harney County which will be closest to the upper low. A cold front will move through southeast Oregon resulting in much cooler temperatures.
1142 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 (Today and tonight) In the upper levels, a low was dropping down across East TX/LA while a ridge was moving into West Texas, leaving our region in northerly flow aloft. With the upper ridge, we'll have mostly sunny skies today, and a similar 850 mb thermal ridge and southerly flow should lead to another warm day (highs in the mid 70s to low 80s). However, surface ridging will build across the Mississippi Valley today, while low pressure develops in eastern Colorado, which will result in south to southeasterly winds around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Expect slightly warmer lows tonight in the low to mid 50s due to slightly better winds than this morning and partly cloudy skies, which should limit the amount of radiational cooling that occurs.
/Tonight through Friday/ Upper pattern is becoming highly amplified today as a large trough digs into the western conus, setting up southwesterly flow over the region. The slow evolution of this trough will impact our weather over the next 4 to 5 days and provide several forecast challenges with a variety of sensible weather. Southerly winds have cranked up gradually today as surface pressures fall over the high Plains, which has led to the development of elevated fire weather conditions over northwest Iowa where drier conditions are in place. Dewpoints pushing into the low to mid 50s have mitigated any fire weather concerns further south and east. Upper trough hangs west and persistent southerly surface flow maintains warm and breezy conditions through the weekend.
The low will keep shifting the winds to a more southward direction, allowing for CU field development in the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, both overnight lows and afternoon highs will run above average for this time of the year due to the warmer airmass overhead. Here, counterclockwise flow from the low pressure could help enhance and destabilize the moist airmass, allowing for some shower development in these areas tomorrow afternoon.
This thermal orientation continues into the day Saturday, but it should be a little cooler across west central Minnesota.
/issued 1015 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Dry and mostly sunny conditions acrs the area as high pres ridges over the SE CONUS. Temperatures have warmed to near 70 or into the lower 70s as of 10 AM. Overnight lows will be significantly warmer with that trend extending into the new week. Ridge then rebuilds over the area between a deep trof emerging over the western CONUS and tropical system Eta advancing northeast through the Caribbean and potentially into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Breezy conditions will prevail, due to high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and Tropical Depression Eta drifting off the Central American coast. In the short term, no changes necessary to the forecast, with highs today in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure remains over eastern CONUS. Highs are forecast to reach the low-to-mid 70s which is quite a bit above normal for this time of year. This weekend a longwave trough out west will begin to deepen with the upper ridge building over eastern CONUS.
With a large upper level ridge slowly siding east today and strengthening southerly flow, we are sittin' pretty at a whopping 20 degrees above normal for November so enjoy it while you can. Saturday: Moving into Saturday, the ridge will be sliding off to the east and will will start to see southerly flow and moisture building in ahead of the next approaching trough which will move onshore Saturday. Expect another warm one with highs in the low to mid 70s and southerly winds becoming quite gusty in the afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Another warm, dry day is in store as high pressure continues to nose into the area from the east.
/issued 509 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Upper level ridge holding in place over the middle and upper Plain States. A deep closed upper level low sagging southward along the Pacific northwest today. Meanwhile a weak cutoff closed low is sagging slowly toward the northern Gulf coast today.
/issued 916 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020/ High pressure along the eastern seaboard combined with Tropical Depression Eta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea off the coast of Belize is maintaining a tight pressure gradient across the state this morning with a breezy northeast to easterly wind flow being observed across the forecast area. Temperatures today will again run above normal for this time of the year with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s during the afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern seaboard and T.
Otherwise it was noticeably more breezy across the area today, owing to tightening pressure gradient between high pressure over the Ohio River Valley and low pressure over the western Dakotas. More of the same is on tap through through the weekend as upper level ridging and strong southerly surface flow keep warm air over the area. While 925 mb temperatures will be a bit cooler than past days, the aforementioned southerly flow should keep plenty of warm air moving in, as temperatures continue to top out in the 60s and 70s. Should they stick around a bit longer than expected, temperatures could be a fair amount cooler than currently forecast, but still warm given the time of year.
For tonight, light easterly flow will persist, and dew points should remain in the lower 50s most of the night. Thus, expect low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Dew points should climb into the lower 60s.
144 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 We will remain between high pressure over the east U. and low pressure across the Plains.
Afternoon temps today are in the lower 70s which looks to repeat again Saturday. 12Z SGF sounding showed plenty of mid level dry air however the low levels had some moisture therefore some scattered afternoon cumulus today will likely also repeat tomorrow.
High pressure continues to dominate over South Central Texas this afternoon and will continue into the weekend. The slightly drier flow overnight will mean less cloud cover particularly over the eastern half of the area and low temperatures will be a little cooler than they were this morning.
146 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 With an upper low pushing over the Pacific Northwest, upper flow is southwesterly over the northern plains, with clouds spreading over the region. At the surface, low pressure over NW SD is resulting in some gusty southwesterly winds across south central SD. Southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm air into the region Saturday, while west coast low pressure system slowly approaches.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. However, a lobe of energy and accompanying deep layer moisture will lift northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and some of the resulting convection may reach our westernmost zones.
1010 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 Massive upper ridge will remain over the region through Saturday, with very warm and dry weather continuing. Upper trough continues to dig into the western CONUS, with unsettled SW flow developing. Weak ejecting impulses will waver the lee side trough over the region, supporting breezy conds at times, esp over NE WY and scentral SD. Main upper trough will slowly eject toward the region in a negative tilt fashion and will support increasing chances for rain and eventually some snow over the western third.
The northern edge of strong high pressure centered over the Appalachians remains firmly over SE MI today resulting in widespread subsidence. Plenty of sun and warmer temps will increase mixing depths allowing for breezier conditions this afternoon into early evening with SW gusts up to 15-20kts. This keeps the Great Lakes on the warmer/anticyclonic shear side of the jet with very mild and dry conditions persisting today into this weekend. A remarkable 500 mb ridge develops over the Mid-Mississippi Valley today and slides to the northern Ohio Valley tonight, strengthening to 588 dam as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. The longwave trough over the western CONUS gradually advances eastward this weekend but ridging maintains control over the eastern CONUS.
232 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Ridging at all levels will dominate our weather through the short term period, with mainly clear skies, light winds, and continued dry air.
400 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Low pressure across eastern Canada passes to the north tonight, while high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states expands northward through the weekend.
Otherwise, for tonight through Saturday night, the large upper level low pressure trough over the western U. With a short wave trough lifting out of the western upper trough Saturday and Saturday night, this front will lift back north as south winds increase as the surface pressure gradient tightens up.
347 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Surface analysis charts show high pressure over eastern CONUS. Temperatures are above normal as we sit in the low-to-mid 70s. Through the next several days, the pattern will become more meridional as the trough out west deepens and the ridge over the eastern parts of the country builds. With the ridge building over the eastern US, it'll keep the region mostly dry.
WV imagery shows drier air on the backside of the low over OK/TX and into the western Gulf, with moisture increasing around its eastern flank over the northern Gulf coast.
650 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Low pressure across eastern Canada passes to the north tonight, while high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states expands northward through the weekend.
539 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Low pressure across eastern Canada passes to the north tonight, while high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states expands northward through the weekend.
We will remain between high pressure over the east U. and low pressure across the Plains.
Another clear and quiet night is figured with high pressure in control. Warm conditions will continue over the weekend under southwest flow and lingering high pressure.
429 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 With an upper low pushing over the Pacific Northwest, upper flow is southwesterly over the northern plains, with clouds spreading over the region. At the surface, low pressure over NW SD is resulting in some gusty southwesterly winds across south central SD. Southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm air into the region Saturday, while west coast low pressure system slowly approaches.
The anomalous upper ridge over the Eastern US along with a digging trough in the West will promote continued southerly flow and summer-like conditions for Nebraska. With the help of sunshine, near record H85 temps, and deep mixing, temperatures soared into the lower/mid 80s across the forecast area today. Little changes tonight as a 50+ kt low level jet develops over the High Plains, accompanied by 17C temps at H85. The ridge holds firm over the East, while the western trough nudges toward the Plains. For max temps, again went with the warmer guidance and added an extra degree or so.
/EC/ Today and Tomorrow: High pressure located along the east coast and draped across the southeastern portion of the CONUS.
946 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Low pressure across eastern Canada passes to the north tonight, while high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states expands northward through the weekend.
High pressure will remain anchored across the mid Atlantic States.