Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A short wave trough in this flow is expected to move across the region Thursday. The saturated layer does not look to be deep or cold enough to have ice introduced into the clouds, so if any precipitation does occur, it would be either light freezing drizzle or drizzle depending on surface temperatures. Will maintain the very low chances for precipitation across the area with the passage of this short wave trough. However, depending on the exact track of the northern trough, light snow/flurries are possible late Fri/Fri night as it passes to the south of the area.
534 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Mid/high level clouds will continue to stream over the region tonight and with winds remaining somewhat breezy overnight expect temps to stay warmer than this morning. This system pushes a cold front through just beyond the TAF period but ahead of the front a period of light drizzle with IFR ceilings is expected. The gusty winds will continue into tonight, as low pressure moves east along the Minnesota/Ontario border. The winds along with a fair amount of mid and high level cloud cover will keep temperatures on the mild side, with lows only falling to around freezing by early Thursday. Will need to keep an eye on surface temperature trends later tomorrow, as readings may get close to freezing in a few spots before the drizzle comes to an end.
Zonal flow is the rule across the bulk of the CONUS with the main aberration being a modest upper low off the southern Baja coast. A modest wave in the far northern Plains in combination with the ejecting upper low ushers a cold front through the area late tonight into late Thursday afternoon. The modest CAA and increased cloud should keep Thursday's highs a bit cooler.
Expect ceilings to lift and SHRA to end mid to late morning as winds veer with approach of a cold front.
A cold front will move through in the morning, turning winds around out of the north, also bringing cloud cover in through the day, slowly edging CIGs downward. A cold front will follow tomorrow as the upper low still spinning near the Baja opens and shifts eastward while being absorbed by the next piece of energy diving southeastward through the Rockies. It now appears the low-levels may be too dry for any moisture to be squeezed out early Thursday morning.
Upper air and satellite data showed northwesterly flow in place to start the day, set up between areas of low pressure across central/eastern Canada and over the Baja region. At the surface, the main feature is a trough axis extending from central ND southward into western KS. The next disturbance to move through looks to do so late in the day tomorrow through tomorrow night, a trough axis extending through the Central/Southern Plains.
546 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
848 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 The Keys are on the southern periphery of a ridge centered over the southeast CONUS, which is driving the mainly gentle to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow over the islands and coastal waters. The dewpoints have been very slowly creeping upwards, and should reach into the low 70s by tomorrow, especially with a little stronger and prolonged flow over the Gulf Stream. The Key West evening sounding found a fairly moist lower boundary layer, with the lowest 200mb layer average RH around 80%. As the ridge over the southeast progresses eastward, winds over the area will become more southeasterly and pick up a few knots - mainly after sunrise.
958 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue overnight across the CWA.
Widespread rains will continue, with heaviest convection focused along this trailing SFC trof that is expected to move slowly EWD through the day. Dry air progged to intrude from the W THU night into FRI morning will bring an end to the rain, with a CDFNT during the day FRI driven by the digging upstream trof slated to bring back seasonal temperatures SAT and SUN. Cool down will be brief, however, as return flow ushers warmer temperatures back SUN night and MON ahead of another CDFNT expected to push through MON into MON night. 13 Southeast winds will gradually intensify tonight as an area of low pressure lifts northeast along the Texas coast and across the region. Winds will subside Thursday night as the low pulls away from the area.
Temperatures will fall back below freezing everywhere tonight, which will turn all remaining precipitation back over to snow. A cold front will move through the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Mild temperatures and plentiful sunshine have kicked off 2020 in the lower Ohio Valley. Anticyclonic flow around the high has resulted in southerly breezes this afternoon, with occasional gusts getting close to 20mph. Strong, curved upper level jet will be positioned such that the lower Ohio Valley will be in the right entrance region, promoting lift/forcing for widespread rain tomorrow.
544 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Trough is positioned from central Canada to the Baja California Peninsula. A mild day occurred with afternoon temperatures from the low to mid 40s in central Kansas to the mid and upper 50s west and southeast of there.
303 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 18Z surface data has high pressure over the deep south with a weak boundary from the Dakotas into central Nebraska.
Phase 1 of this event has wound down this afternoon with light to moderate snow falling and accumulating from the lower western valleys all the way to the highest peaks eastward along the Divide. Cold temperatures along with lingering saturation in the lower levels and favorable upslope flow will keep snow showers going right through Thursday in the central and northern Colorado mountains. Valley locations can expect to see another round of light to moderate snow this evening, however drying conditions in the lower valleys are expected by sunrise on Thursday morning.
Lows will be in the low/mid 40s inland and upper 40s coast.
Light post-frontal showers will linger early this evening, mainly from the Cascades westward, with a freezing level around 4500 ft msl.
315 PM PST Wed Jan 1 2020 Dry weather with lighter winds returns Thursday as high pressure builds into northeast California and western Nevada.
Meanwhile, an upper low will deepen while crossing northern Mexico resulting in a amplified upper level pattern across the western CONUS. At the surface, cloud coverage will increase and Gulf moisture will pool into the Mississippi Valley region ahead of a strong cold front.
Ridging will set up just off the coast of California, which will allow a couple bursts of energy to slide into our region through the forecast period. As a result, above-average temperatures will be expected under the ridge to carry out the first week of the year and into the weekend. The first of these aforementioned energy bursts will be accompanied by a cold frontal passage this evening. The coastal high pressure system will continue to move eastward into the weekend before a trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest and pushes it south of our area.
With an upper ridge building into the region, and warmer temperatures aloft combining with cooling surface temperature post sunset, shower activity will taper off further into Thursday morning.
The 19Z surface map showed a 987mb low across southern Manitoba through northwestern ND, with a trough extending south over areas near and east of the Missouri River.
A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow is pushing through the Red River valley, with the snow line situated just east of the Valley, along and east of a line that extends from Crookston to Mahnomen.
A short wave trough pushing through the PacNW did end up brining a few light showers to Sierra late morning into the afternoon. This shower threat will be ending in the next few hours as the trough digs just to our east. High clouds will thinking up a bit as we head into the overnight as the eastern Pacific ridge amplifies and moves onto the West Coast. There is some uncertainty on how much the high clouds and north winds up to 10 mph will limit the fog development.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the deep south with a weak boundary from the Dakotas into central Nebraska.
High pressure slides off to the east overnight and a gradual shift of winds out the the east/southeast will keep temperatures near or just above this morning's lows, but still in the 50s areawide with upper 40s in Levy county. However, a slight nudge cooler for overnight lows across the Nature Coast was recently made to reflect current trends and calmer winds which latest guidance has also caught on to.
High pressure and abundant sunshine has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 50s in most locations, with a few upper 40s still lingering in higher elevations. The pattern will change tonight as a cut-off low over the Baja Peninsula gets picked up by the strengthening trough axis extending from north central Canada southward into northern Texas. The low will move northeast from southern Lousiana this evening. This will keep temperatures warmer overnight, only dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Thursday morning the showers almost stop before the daylight helps destabilize the lower atmosphere and there's a second round of showers Thursday afternoon.
545 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the region this evening and tonight with northwest to north winds in its wake. A positively-tilted upper trough will approach the Four Corners region later tonight then approach the Panhandles Thursday. Cold front moves through the Panhandles this evening and tonight with strong cold air advection late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.
707 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Allowed Winter Weather Advisory to expire as scheduled and replaced with Special Weather Statement as there are still a few lingering pockets of light freezing rain/sleet moving into northwest MN. Organized cluster or freezing rain/sleet has transitioned east into deeper cold, however additional pockets of light showers have developed into southeast ND with light returns lighter further west and north. RAP profiles show warm layer lingering ahead of cold front and surface analysis indicates this is just now entering north central ND. A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow is pushing through the Red River valley, with the snow line situated just east of the Valley, along and east of a line that extends from Crookston to Mahnomen.
Latest guidance continues to suggest best precip chances will occur Thursday evening as showers develop with approach of main trough axis.
517 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Closed low over the baja of Mexico was slightly deepening this afternoon and will move east across Mexico then become absorbed in a PacNW wave that moves across the intermountain west which will be part of our next weather-maker starting tomorrow. Clear skies and south/southwest flow overnight will keep temps warmer than last night.
Gusty northwest winds are also likely before sunset across the state behind a cold front.
614 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Organized cluster or freezing rain/sleet has transitioned east into deeper cold, however additional pockets of light showers have developed into southeast ND with light returns lighter further west and north. RAP profiles show warm layer lingering ahead of cold front and surface analysis indicates this is just now entering north central ND. A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow is pushing through the Red River valley, with the snow line situated just east of the Valley, along and east of a line that extends from Crookston to Mahnomen.
A weather system and associated cold front will dive southward across northern Arizona overnight.
Cold front is quickly advancing through the TX Panhandle, so a northerly shift in winds is expected early morning. A cold front will follow tomorrow as the upper low still spinning near the Baja opens and shifts eastward while being absorbed by the next piece of energy diving southeastward through the Rockies. It now appears the low-levels may be too dry for any moisture to be squeezed out early Thursday morning.
Drier northwesterly flow now coming in ahead of an upper ridge in the eastern Pacific.
The overall upper level pattern showed a powerful upper level jet moving into the Pacific northwest with a closed low across the Baja of California.
A surface cold front will then move eastward through the area later this morning into this afternoon. With temperatures hovering in the lower 30s, will have to watch for the possibility of some very light freezing rain for awhile this morning mainly north of I- 94. A narrow ridge of high pressure builds in tonight behind the cold front for quiet conditions with perhaps a few breaks in cloud cover.
A cold front will move into southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin of west Texas early Thursday evening resulting in a wind shift to the north and an increase chance of showers with MVFR ceilings. The slightly warmer conditions you are seeing outside will continue for the next few days. A cutoff upper low over the Baja will weaken tonight and be absorbed into a large scale trough over the central U. The higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains will see the strongest winds.
1044 PM MST Wed Jan 1 2020 Forecast was updated to include freezing fog through tomorrow morning as current satellite images, surface observations and latest models guidance were showing an area of fog moving southeast from Canada into Northern Valley and is forecast to spread across Roosevelt and Sheridan County overnight. Temperatures will fall back below freezing everywhere tonight, which will turn all remaining precipitation back over to snow. A cold front will move through the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
1224 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
Gusty northwest winds will develop later this morning as a surface cold front moves into south central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. As an upper level trough approaches early today there will be an increase mid level moisture based on the latest RAP and NAM BUFR soundings. Highs may end up being up to 5 degrees cooler across north central Kansas. Early tonight the upper level trough will cross western Kansas. As this upper wave passes a reinforcement of cooler air will invade north central and southwest Kansas along with the potential for some increasing low clouds based on the moisture profiles in the boundary layer from the NAM, mainly across north central Kansas.
As the base of a mid- level trough swings across the terminals Thursday afternoon, another period of light showers may approach the Interstate 35 terminals with winds varying between south and west through the TAF period.
Rain developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley will spread into the area after midnight. Meanwhile, an upper low will deepen while crossing northern Mexico resulting in a amplified upper level pattern across the western CONUS. At the surface, cloud coverage will increase and Gulf moisture will pool into the Mississippi Valley region ahead of a strong cold front.
Upper ridge offshore with strong northwest flow aloft into the Pacific northwest.
1127 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Trough is positioned from central Canada to the Baja California Peninsula. A mild day occurred with afternoon temperatures from the low to mid 40s in central Kansas to the mid and upper 50s west and southeast of there.
357 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Warm front brings periods of rain this afternoon.
The warmer air was still back in southeast Texas and over the northwestern Gulf, where values were in the 60's and 70's.
This is occurring at the leading edge of digging midlevel trough that is approaching. By evening, there could be enough modest moistening in the lower part of the atmosphere from persistent south-southwesterly flow to support some showers, particulary along and just ahead of approaching midlevel trough axis. The surface reflection of the approaching trough is a cold front that will move eastward across the area today.
Otherwise, a cold front will cause a wind shift as it moves southeast across the region overnight through Thursday evening.
300 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 A very deep trough is developing over the Rocky Mountains and will swing east into Texas today. Lift associated with this trough will create isolated light showers that will move across the CWA today through tonight. However cannot rule out isolated areas of light snow mixing with the rain where heavier precipitation may allow for evaporative cooling that would briefly cool the entire column below freezing, similar to what was seen the other morning with light flurries in southeastern New Mexico. The best chances for snow may be in the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains above the elevated warm layer where dynamic cooling is not needed.
The latest 00Z suite of guidance, particularly the higher resolution guidance, has all come into better agreement on the main precipitation shield shifting a bit more to the south and east than previously forecast. Deitsch Closed low over the baja of Mexico was slightly deepening this afternoon and will move east across Mexico then become absorbed in a PacNW wave that moves across the intermountain west which will be part of our next weather-maker starting tomorrow. Clear skies and south/southwest flow overnight will keep temps warmer than last night.
231 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough near the four corners region with broad southwest flow from Texas across much of the southeast U. For today, upper trough will shift into the central and southern plains with a cold front advancing to just west of the CWA by 00z. Colder air will move in behind the front, but the cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures in the lower 40s in the southeast.
/Issued 958 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020/ High pressure will continue overnight across the CWA.
1022 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
High pressure aloft will return for the end of the week. Amplification of the large-scale pattern has resulted in an upper trough carving into UT earlier today, with the associated 160kt jet currently oriented from north-central through southeast NV. The baroclinic zone associated with the trough has made it to southern Utah where a loosely organized band of showers exists currently. The bulk of this will occur over the northern and central mountains, and with cooler air continuing to slowly spread into the area, snow densities will decrease.
MVFR ceilings will develop at the northeast Oklahoma sites Thursday evening following the passage of a cold front. Latest guidance continues to suggest best precip chances will occur Thursday evening as showers develop with approach of main trough axis.
This will also bring the low end severe weather threat to an end. High pressure builds across the area through the weekend resulting in clear skies and cool, but pleasant conditions for early January.
529 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Cold front moving south through the terminals this morning with modest northerly breezes following through the afternoon. Upper trough approaching today, passing tonight, will increase and thicken clouds to some extent. /issued 341 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ The cold front is pushing its way southward and is currently moving into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. The activity will be short lived and will cease once the upper trough axis bisects the region later tonight.
945 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 High pressure will shift offshore today ahead of a front that will bring a chance of showers through Friday night.
00Z model guidance and even short term models like the HRRR are in excellent agreement on the heaviest rain axis setting up across our southeastern counties along and to the cool side of a developing warm front, roughly in the ballpark of a Pulaski/Fayetteville to Crossville line. Strong lift associated with an approaching jet streak, focus provided by the warm frontal boundary, and near-record levels of moisture transport and precipitable water values up to 1.
341 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 The cold front is pushing its way southward and is currently moving into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. The activity will be short lived and will cease once the upper trough axis bisects the region later tonight.
401 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 An amplified upper level trough is moving out of the Rockies and onto the Plains today. The NAM, GFS,and ECMWF are farther east into Iowa with the closed low diving southeast compared to yesterday. The path of the low if forecast with more of an eastward component with its movement (the ECMWF most so), rather than much more of a south movement from previous solutions.
/issued 300 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ A very deep trough is developing over the Rocky Mountains and will swing east into Texas today. Lift associated with this trough will create isolated light showers that will move across the CWA today through tonight. However cannot rule out isolated areas of light snow mixing with the rain where heavier precipitation may allow for evaporative cooling that would briefly cool the entire column below freezing, similar to what was seen the other morning with light flurries in southeastern New Mexico. The best chances for snow may be in the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains above the elevated warm layer where dynamic cooling is not needed. Precipitation ends Friday and cold high pressure briefly settles across West Texas before moving east under a developing progressive westerly flow.
Will see this area of precip depart the CWA later this morning as we await the next area of low pressure which looks to slide southeast through the area overnight.
An amplified upper level trough is moving out of the Rockies and onto the Plains today. The NAM, GFS,and ECMWF are farther east into Iowa with the closed low diving southeast compared to yesterday. The path of the low if forecast with more of an eastward component with its movement (the ECMWF most so), rather than much more of a south movement from previous solutions.
Ridge builds up to the west and temperatures will warm as another chinook develops.
452 AM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Northerly winds have developed over Colorado Springs and Pueblo, which is indicative of the cold front passing over the plains. The upper level trough axis will pass over the region this morning, cutting precipitation rates over the areas under the Winter Weather Advisory (Sawatch and northern Mosquito Mountains). Snowfall rates don't warrant the Winter Weather Advisory to continue likely past 1200 MDT, but blowing snow will still cause hazardous travel conditions over the higher elevations, therefore the advisory will continue through 1600 MDT. The cold air is being reinforced with the trough passage and cold air advecting from the northwest. Any additional accumulations will remain very light and under an inch across the higher peaks.
631 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Warm front brings periods of rain this afternoon and evening. Low pressure system and its associated cold front cross the area Friday night. This flow will pump moisture and warmer air, developing a warm front. We may see a lull in the rain late Friday afternoon or evening before the cold front swings through Friday night as low pressure tracks in the Great Lakes.
544 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
900 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Dry with high pressure dominating across South Florida. This will allow temperatures to moderate into the low 80s and moisture will gradually return to the area. High pressure on Friday will continue to push off to the east and winds will shift around to a more southerly direction across the area. This will allow for warm temperatures during the afternoon as they will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro area to the upper 80s across portions of the interior.
High pressure will bring dry conditions through Friday night.