Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR conditions could be possible over Eastern Oklahoma due to some low ceilings wrapping around the upper low as it moves into the CWA. VFR conditions should remain common with the potential for some MVFR conditions within a heavier shower and near the upper low. /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ Upper low in the southern stream currently over NW TX will move over the forecast area today. will develop later this morning as the upper low moves overhead. The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the details regarding the western CONUS upper low this weekend.
AS WELL AS STARTING THE DAY WARMER. 500MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECTING LOTS OF SUN. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRI.
1003 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHICH IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. NEXT REAL WEATHER ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE A PASSING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND MORE SITES SHOW AN UPWARD TREND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING S. BETTER CHANCES OF SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK S/W RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW VFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS OK. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO AR. /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ UPPER LOW MOVG SLOWLY EAST ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA TODAY. HARD TO SAY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AS MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER CHALLENGE IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST.
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
610 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH RAIN ONSET LATER THIS WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. GULF OF ALASKA SHOWING OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIGHT AROUND 47N 150W. PRETTY EXTENSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR KSFO THIS MORNING. COULD BE SEEING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS EARLY AS THIS TIME.
203 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5- 10 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG COLORADO FRONT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS BEHIND THIS RIDGE. LOCAL WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST AS A SUBSIDENT REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES. THE TRI-STATE REGION WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE PERIOD AS WELL.
347 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY MORNING AND BRING A MODERATING FLOW ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
307 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2015 UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND OVER SRN CA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO INTO NE BY SAT NIGHT.
A SPLIT FLOW BLOCK CONTINUES OVER WESTERN NOAM NEAR THE WEST COAST WHILE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE POINT CONCEPTION AREA AS A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SNOW LEVELS STARTED OUT THIS MORNING AT AROUND 5500 FEET IN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS HOWEVER AFTER THINGS MOISTENED UP, THE FREEZING LEVEL HAS CLIMBED TO ABOVE 7000 FEET. FOR FRIDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHIFT THE LOW AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE THREAT OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA AND KERN COUNTY.
H500 RIDGE AXIS TO PULL ACROSS CWA LATER TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE SETTING UP SHOP AS WELL OVER THE CWA AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SHRA ARRIVE PRIOR TO 12Z THOUGH IN THE INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 950 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO BE BLOCKED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO DISTINCT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW. THE FURTHEST EAST TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE THE LOWER VALLEY TAF SITES REMAIN VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE CONV TO MUCH OF CENTRAL TX YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE WARMER HIGHS TODAY DUE TO A LITTLE LOWER POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI WITH BETTER CONV POTENTIAL.
206 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS LOS ANGELES.
A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. AND HAVE CONCENTRATED THE HIGHER POP'S IN THESE AREAS. GENERALLY REMAINING STEADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HEIGHTS BUILD BRIEFLY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAKER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND WEST COAST CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN REDEVELOPING THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS FRIDAY AND WITH THE WEAKER WAVE APPROACHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. WILL NEED TO RETAIN AT LEAST LOW POPS DESPITE THE RIDGING.
/ISSUED 1010 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AT H85 AND H7 OVER NE FL. RIDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND OTHERWISE INSUFFICIENT FORCING WILL PRECLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. -VINCENT WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. RIDGING WESTWARD INTO THE REGION AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD.
151 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE AND UPPER LVL RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH WARMER TODAY THEN WED AS MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE FROM -4C YESTERDAY TO NEARLY 8C LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERVIEW: OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BUT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FIXED OVER THE WEST COAST. COOLER NEAR THE LAKES OF COURSE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS ADVANCES THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE ALOFT (700-500 MB) BY 18Z BEGINS TO STRIP OUT LEAVING THE LOWER MOISTURE (850 MB AND LOWER) IN PLACE.
257 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES DRY TODAY. HOWEVER THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE BEEN IN PLACE TODAY. HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA IN THE MORNING WHICH DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
137 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS TODAY.
A large upper low along the California coast will amble southeastward to southern California Friday. A plume of mid and upper level moisture will spread over the region tonight within the resultant southwest flow aloft downstream of this upper low.
TODAY WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
406 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THIS IS OCCURRING AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTERLY MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO ALLOWING FOR ANY RAIN TO FALL OUT OF THE LOWERING CLOUD DECK. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON FRIDAY. SUN BREAKS WILL ONLY WORK TO INCREASE INSTABILITY IN CONCERT WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENTERING THE REGION.
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS SHOWS A LARGE PRECIPITATION AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW.
249 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE RETURN WILL STRENGTHEN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S CONVECTION MIGHT HAVE MORE WINDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD BASES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER THROUGHOUT.
SOME BR IS LIKELY ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD LAYER THIS MORNING.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARD INTERSTATE 75. HOWEVER THE BREAK DOWN OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND GRADUAL RETROGRESSION WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEAN RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ALOFT KEEPING TSTORM ACTIVITY RELATIVELY TAME.
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKENS.
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN THIS EVENING WITH A SMALLER AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT. FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
321 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT.
148 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND PRODUCE FAIR AND MILDER WEATHER AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IT WILL ALSO TURN WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR EIGHTY DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
207 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
POP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM LOW MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND THE STRONGER LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW ENHANCES CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER WEST TEXAS.
350 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS FROST LOWS. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
141 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THEN OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon/evening across much of the region as yet another spoke of energy breaks off the parent low pressure system currently sitting over Southern California. The lower levels of the atmosphere also contain above normal amounts of moisture for this time of year, which means any storms that develop will be capable of brief heavy rain.
403 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THEN WIND DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WEAKENING AFTER 18Z AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ELONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS WAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AT H85 AND H7 OVER NE FL. RIDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND OTHERWISE INSUFFICIENT FORCING WILL PRECLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RIGHT NOW THE AIR ALOFT IN MUCH DRIER THAN THIS MORNING AND MUCH OF THE CU IS LOW TOPPED AND CAPPED WELL BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. NOW IT DOES WEAKEN WITH APPROACHING (KEY WORD) COLD FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH THE 5 TO 7 DAY TOTALS STILL VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT WPC/HOME PAGE POSTED 3 TO 5 WEST AND MAINLY I-30 CORRIDOR AND 1 TO 2 EAST AND SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED THUS AM EXPECTING MN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A TAD WARMER.
SAT-SUN: UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL LEADING TO FURTHER INFUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SAT AS DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MORNING AS COOLER/DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U. A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSH SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL OREGON THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE VARYING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN TO STAY DRY. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 417 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR A FEW MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FRIDAY, WHILE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST KEEPS PUMPING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BUT CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE. AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. RIDGING WESTWARD INTO THE REGION AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH STRONG/COLD UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST. WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING THROUGH SWRN/SCNTRL SD. STRONG LO LVL CURVATURE ON THE HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT A TORNADIC THREAT AS WELL NEAR THE INVERTED TROF.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS INCREASE LATEST. WENT WITH THE HIGHER NAM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. EVEN WITH CLOUDS STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
200 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ACROSS SW FLORIDA SO THERE ARE LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DOWN SOUTH. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMERY PATTERN AS FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK WESTWARD ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE STACKED RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TO HOT.
328 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 WATCHING A WARM FRONT BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REAMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AND TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE HARD TO FIND. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN LARGE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
MEAN H5 586DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BROAD TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 30KTS.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO A RELATIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
417 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 WATER VAPOR CHANNEL AND VISIBLE BOTH SHOW EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEP WEST COAST MID-UPPER LOW.
417 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
123 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
531 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A STRONG SURGE OF DEEP MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL PRODUCE BROAD SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF NRN MN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DEEP DIGGING TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NRN US.
1044 AM PDT Thu May 14 2015 Continued Cooler than normal conditions with an unsettled pattern today as an upper low develops along the coast.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ALREADY APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT.
656 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS FROST LOWS. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
153 PM MST THU MAY 14 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
235 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
406 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT OVERALL FORCING MAY BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS NOTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. AND 2) THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.