Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cyclonic low level flow is enough to produce some light LES with 850mb temps of -7C to -8C, which is also be enhanced by upslope N-NNW flow over the higher terrain of the N Central and W. Total snowfall through tonight will be minor generally at 1-4 inches over the higher terrain in the NW wind snowbelts and lesser elsewhere. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun and this remains into Mon. The 500 mb ridge over the western U.
A positively tilted mid and upper level trough lies over the Great Lakes and stretches southwestward along the Ohio valley, lower Mississippi, and southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretches down the Appalachian mountains, across western Alabama, and into southern Mississippi and Louisiana. Behind the cold front, breezy northwest winds will take over.
Area will be under northwest flow with low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the Rockies. This will be enough to keep mention of scattered flurries before the lower levels lose their moisture later tonight. Highs today will be a handful of degrees below normal, but lows tonight will balance that out as readings stay in the lower teens.
Skies have cleared over western portions of north-central Montana, with subsidence and warming following the passage of an mid-level warm frontal related trough.
1244 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front approaches from the west tonight and moves across on Thursday as low pressure deepens across SE Canada into Thursday night.
Since we did not quite make it to the high temperatures the daytime guidance was indicating plus the much drier air coming in, chose to lower the mins a little from the previous forecast.
Ridging continues to build into the area tonight and expect temperatures to slide down into the upper 30s to mid 40s inland. warmer at the coast. Cold front has pushed off the Upper Texas Coast, but an elevated surface pressure gradient will keep winds around 10 knots inland and closer to 15-20 knots along the coast through Thursday.
Surface analysis this evening shows a cold front well est of Indiana. Low pressure was found across the Great Lakes and cyclonic flow was in place across Indiana. Meanwhile GFS and NAM depict a decent trough pushing through during the 09Z-15Z period. with the entire column below freezing expect for the very lowest level. Given the warm and wet ground that has not been below freezing since Jan 15.
Winds will be from the northwest as a ridge of high pressure extends from the Intermountain west to the Southern Plains.
Expect widespread freezing temperatures again tonight into Thursday morning.
850mb temperatures show 4F to 7F increase from yesterday supporting various model output highs in the low to upper 30s.
With the low cloud deck hovering within the dendritic growth zone, and with light radar returns developing upstream in North Dakota and northeast South Dakota, have added mention of isolated flurries through Thursday. Breezy northwest winds this evening will slowly decrease overnight as the low center moves into the Great Lakes and will remain around 10 to 15 mph into Thursday. Given the cloud cover and relatively weak cold air push tonight, went with the warmer consshort guidance, with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. Highs on Thursday will be cooler than recent days, but still near or just below average in the lower to mid 20s. An increasing western ridge will send several waves of energy through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as we move into the weekend.
309 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Cold front exits and upper trough deepens as it moves into the northeast U. Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. Cold air advection behind the front will struggle to get the temperatures down to the freezing mark during the day today with 850mb temperatures only -6C by 21Z. Even with adjusting the rain/snow values up to 35/37, it takes the bulk of the daytime hours to get even a rain/snow mix going in the lowlands. Snow will start a bit earlier for the higher elevations in the northeast mountains.
Otherwise, minus the occasional brief hole in the low clouds, stratus will persist over the forecast area tonight into Thursday afternoon or early evening before clearing is noted. Seasonable temperatures can be expected through at least the weekend, with highs ranging from the lower 30s to middle 40s, with lows mainly in the 20s.
A rain/snow mixture will continue to spread across central Indiana this morning from north to south as an upper trough rotates through the region. Temps through the period will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s. The only caveat will be tonight's lows which will be a tad warmer in the upper 20s.
Upper low overhead likely a strong contributor early this morning, but will exit into Ontario prior to 12z. The exception will be southeast of the glacial ridge, particularly in the immediate Detroit area where temps remain near 40 degrees and where where arrival of colder air during the peak heating period may prevent a changeover to snow at all. Low pressure exiting the Great Lakes will merge with the remains of the Atlantic coast nor'easter over Quebec today.
High pressure will continue to settle in over the area, allowing for light winds and good radiational cooling the next two nights. Low humidity will promote fairly large diurnal temperature ranges, but a cooler and closer to seasonal normals.
1057 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 An intense sfc cyclone was occluding over the WI/IL border this afternoon. The character is teaming with large high pressure covering most of the Northern Rockies to produce brisk NW winds that have resulted in much cooler weather across KICT Country. The intense sfc cyclone will move NE across Quebec tonight & Thu then across Labrador/Newfoundland Thu night & Fri while high pressure strengthens considerably over the Great Basin. Warmer weather is still scheduled to arrive on Sat as the lower-deck flow takes on a more westerly component. It'll be much warmer to start the work-week as strengthening lower deck troffing surges E/SE across the Northern Plains to induce the flow to back to a SW-W component. It'll turn cooler on Tue when a weak SE-moving cold front should cross KS in the morning.
The western extent of a broad upper-level trough encompassing much of the lower 48 is expected to remain in control across the CWA through the period. This will combine w/ persistent orographics to yield light mountain snow through Thu night, but do not expect anything to be heavy enough to justify a Winter Weather Advisory even though 48 hour totals may be around 6 to 8 inches in the high country. We will need to watch for cold wind chill temperatures tonight in the high valleys, but opted not to issue a Wind Chill Advisory at this time as forecast wind chill readings are marginal around -20 F.
330 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Generally seasonable, though noticeably lower, high temperatures are on tap for today as CAA continues behind the cold front that's now out of the area. Despite generally unimpeded insolation, falling low level heights with an upper trough combined with the aforementioned W/NW cold advection will help to keep highs down into the 50s across most of the area. It will be cooler tonight due to lighter wind/radiational cooling.
Still expect any accumulations to be light in the lower elevations but still the likelihood of a few inches at higher elevations. Amplified ridging over the left and right coasts of the CONUS is keep a cold and unstable trough over the Great Lakes to Desert Southwest region this afternoon.
1128 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Cooler conditions are occurring across the region today, as gusty northwest winds usher in a more seasonable airmass.
/Issued 745 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ A cold front which pushed thru the region last night is now entering the NW Gulf of Mexico. Cooler and drier air is in place over the region behind the front. The clear skies and some cold advection will allow for a chilly sub-freezing night tonight, although lows will be pretty close to average for this time of year. /Issued 305 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Temperatures are much closer to normal Today in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area last night. The trend of near normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as a northwesterly flow aloft develops with a ridge building over the western United States.
A general broad trough extended from Ontario and Quebec back into the northern and central Plains, then west toward the Pacific Northwest. There were a few ripples in this general trough pattern.
Lingering light snow continuing to diminish across southeast Wisconsin as secondary weak short wave rotating around departing upper low shifts off to the east.
336 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Temperatures today are expected to rise into the lower 20s to lower 30s with the cooler readings across the deep snow cover north.
Lows should range from the lower 40s across the north to lower 50s along the immediate coast. Concur with GFS deterministic that an upper trough will flatten as it moves EWD across the Central CONUS/Mississippi Valley Tonight/ Thursday while another E-W oriented upper trough moves SWD across the Midwest/NRN Plains. The corresponding cold front has moved offshore. Anticipate only SCEC conditions over the Nearshore Coastal Waters given cooler SST values. MSAS reveals below freezing surface dewpoints yet expect limited radiational cooling overnight given clouds (yet decreasing) and wind (yet decreasing.
341 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The upper pattern through the first half of the weekend will be dominated by a southwest to northeast longwave trough dividing the CONUS, with generally northerly flow at 500mb across the northern plains. We remain under the influence of this northwest flow trough for much of the day however, so clouds will persist with off and on flurries.
1123 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Continued the SPS across the eastern CWA for the possibility of freezing drizzle. Also watching northeast SD as they are getting areas of freezing drizzle this afternoon. Inserted areas of freezing drizzle in the grids until this evening as soundings show favorable setup for this. Have therefore sided towards the warmer end of available guidance for tonight's lows.
354 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 An upper level trough extending west from the exiting upper low over lower MI, along with a broad cyclonic flow at the surface were combining to keep flurries and a very light snow over especially the southeast half of the forecast area early this morning. Blended model guidance lows from the upper teens along highway 20 to the lower 20s central and south look reasonable, looking at the upstream airmass advecting in from MN and the Dakotas. Overview: Upper jet amplifies into the weekend, setting up a big pattern change: Large ridge out West and a deep trough over the eastern half of the U.
Under clear skies and light northwest winds, overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to around freezing across the Arklatex.
313 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Large-scale upper trough prevailing over the Nation's midsection this morning as ridging continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Further south, expect dry conditions with highs warming into the lower to middle 30s with winds a little weaker than yesterday's.
A cold front continues to exit the forecast area this evening with gusty northwest winds behind the front. /issued 325 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front along the Mississippi River this afternoon. A cold front will continue to push through the Mid-South tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected to return Thursday with highs in the 40s at most locations.
Therefore will not carry any mention of light freezing drizzle after midnight, just the flurries. Generally quiet conditions to continue as the region remains between low pressure moving off towards the Great Lakes and high pressure building into the western CONUS. A bit stronger cold advection as compared to last night and Wednesday (although still relatively weak) in cooler northwest flow will allow temperatures to drop into the teens tonight but should still recover to around normal values for Thursday (upper teens/low 20s).
242 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 An upper trough will cross the region today and breezy northwesterly winds will develop. Dry weather is expected tonight due to synoptic scale subsidence as a weak upper ridge crosses the area behind the departing upper trough.
Water vapor imagery showing double trough moving over the western Great Lakes. This will likely wane through the morning as the next trough drops in behind this one. Overnight lows will drop off into the teens with the cold trough overhead. The forecast remains a nearly broken record through the weekend with a trough over the eastern U.
303 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 The cold front has pushed through the region this morning, though the much colder air is lagging a bit behind it. For the short term period, a broad upper level trough will establish itself across much of the eastern CONUS.
307 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 An upper level trough will move southward across Kansas this afternoon and tonight.
Upper level trough continues to drop southward through Southeastern Idaho this morning. Very little accumulation expected today, around a half inch or less in the lower valleys, up to an inch in the mountains.
High pressure remains situated east of the region as a frontal boundary moves across the Deep South. The influence of the high pressure has allowed for another night of mostly clear skies, allowing for good radiational cooling conditions and patchy fog to develop. These high temperatures will make a run at record highs for this date, with high temperatures expected to reach well into the low and mid 80s, warmest across eastern areas.
It's safe to say that this is not expected again today as all of the mid level moisture has been pushed to the southeast with the eastward progression of the upper trough.
315 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front moving into n GA currently is forecast to move across the area through the morning.
322 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Cold front will continue to push off to the east early this morning with temperatures falling into the 30s behind the front. A narrow dry slot behind the front and in advance of the 700 mb trough axis will pass overhead around dawn with some breaks in the clouds likely through mid morning.
Cold front has made its way through Clarksville this evening and is working its way eastward. Lows still look to be in the low to mid 30s across the area as skies clear briefly overnight post fropa. Approaching upper trough looks to bring cloud cover back to the mid state later this morning, but models have backed off a little in regards to lower cigs.
The cold front is now advancing east of the I-65 corridor and should clear the LMK CWA and move into eastern Kentucky around midnight. Pattern shift is underway with a strong closed upper low tracking across the Upper Midwest. Expect the cold front to push through this evening, with westerly winds cranking up behind it.
308 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will move east across NC this morning. Once spotty light precip falls into the sub cloud layer, temperatures will evaporatively cool a few degrees into the low and mid 50s. Otherwise, a mid level trough and attendant sfc cold front will cross central NC this morning.
/61/ (Remainder from prior discussion) A dry and cooler airmass will work in behind the front and we will actually see some freezing temperatures again this winter.
will keep overnight lows just below freezing in most locations. and into the lower 30s south of I-70.
/issued 248 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Surface pressure ridge to migrate across the forecast area tonight, exiting to the east Thursday morning. It will be replaced by a lee trough along the New Mexico state line. With the development of the lee trough winds on the Caprock will come around to the west while off the Cap winds should stay backed toward south and southeast.
344 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 The cold front is pushing through the area now, while the organized showers are well ahead of the front and should be exiting the eastern counties shortly. SREF mainly keeps POPs north as well and in the higher terrain.
246 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will move east across NC this morning. Once spotty light precip falls into the sub cloud layer, temperatures will evaporatively cool a few degrees into the low and mid 50s. Otherwise, a mid level trough and attendant sfc cold front will cross central NC this morning.
The upper flow pattern will continue to be highly amplified before trough/ridge wavelength grows and amplitude lessens by around mid week.
406 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area this morning with a brief period of showers.
A cooler air mass will also spread into the area today as highs warm into the middle to upper 30s this afternoon and lows cool into the low to mid 20s tonight.
At the surface, northwesterly winds (gusting near 20 MPH at times) continue, as the CWA sits between low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure extending from the northern Rockies south into the southern Plains. Forecast high temperatures are similar to Wednesday, maybe a few degrees warmer, ranging from the mid 20s north to the mid 30s in the south.
A few gusty north winds in the wake of a cold front will be possible tonight before becoming relatively light overnight. A cold front has cleared Deep South Texas and is located well offshore the Lower Texas Coast. A cold front had moved offshore this afternoon with high pressure building in the wake of the frontal boundary. High pressure will continue to build into south Texas through the overnight period with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s right along the coast. Cooler weather will continue Thursday night into the weekend as an elongated upper trough continues to slow drop south.
Seasonably cold weather will prevail through late week with the region positioned between an upper level low over eastern Canada and an upper level high off the U.
Will leave overnight lows as is and will also maintain scattered flurries as a mid level trough continues to push south across the Northern Plains. Upper trough continues to drop south through the forecast area. An area of enhanced snowfall remains situated over central ND ahead of a slowly moving upper level trough. An upper level trough of low pressure continues to drop south through the forecast area. Ahead of the trough widespread flurries continue across much of west and central ND. Expect the light snow or flurries to continue this evening and then become more scattered late tonight as the upper trough pushes south.
The cold front is now in Middle TN about to enter E TN and should pass thru fairly quickly with little fanfare.
349 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Cold front exits and upper trough deepens as it moves into the northeast U. Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. Cold air advection behind the front will struggle to get the temperatures down to the freezing mark during the day today with 850mb temperatures only -6C by 21Z. Even with adjusting the rain/snow values up to 35/37, it takes the bulk of the daytime hours to get even a rain/snow mix going in the lowlands. Snow will start a bit earlier for the higher elevations in the northeast mountains.
This will allow temperatures to warm up again into the upper 90s to lower 100s across the region, though perhaps a degree cooler than yesterday as the mid-to-upper level ridge remains centered near El Paso. This will allow relative humidity values to fall into the lower 20s in these areas, which coupled with southerly 10-15 mph winds will allow for elevated fire weather conditions in these areas. The upper level ridge should continue to become more elongated and weaken slightly over the southern tier of the United States on Sunday.
Persistent cloud cover has been keeping convective inhibition on the high side this afternoon across the plains. Conditions overall should improve with sunset and as a cold front slides south across the forecast area tonight.
Bermuda ridge axis north FL will maintain a deep S/SE flow acrs central FL overnight. Bermuda Ridge draped over the FL Panhandle/Big Bend region will maintain a light to gentle SE breeze overnight.
947 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 An upper level disturbance will shift southeast of the area tonight allowing high pressure to build over the region for Sunday.
Exact timing and strength of this thunderstorm complex will go a long way in determining the severe potential on Sunday afternoon, when a cold front moves across north- central WI.
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Energy from a Northern Intermountain region upper trough will weaken tonight through Sunday, with some of it being absorbed by an upper trough swinging southeast through Manitoba into the Great Lakes. A lee trough will strengthen some through this evening.
1029 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front moving south across the area will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the area tonight.
1123 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A weak cold front stretches east-west across the state. The front will move off the coast Sunday with a ridge of high pressure over the state bringing a mostly sunny day.
Upper level trough over the southern British Columbia/Alberta border continues to usher in relatively cool dry air over the Pacific Northwest. Trough is expected to retrograde off the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight.
Consensus of guidance still shows an upper level ridge becoming centered over the Southern Plains and strengthening, and the main weather player for the region.
729 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Cold front dissolves over the area tonight. High pressure into Sunday night.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across central Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across north Florida tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be centered just northeast of the Bahamas overnight.
An upper level ridge is taking control of much of the southern U.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over central ND. Mid level troffing /H7 to H5/ pushes through the area from 15-18z so subsidence in the approaching mid level ridge should help scattered out clouds and provide a nice end to the day. An upper low over Hudson bay will keep cyclonic flow across the north and northeast through Sunday night as a weak cool front departs, with scattered showers and possibly some thunder possible as upper level vortices move across the northeast in the NW flow pattern.
Southern storms are riding along a ridge of ~ 2 KJ/KG MUCape, so will have to keep an eye on them over the next hour or two until they exit to the east.
857 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2016 A weakening cold front will remain in the area through tonight.
It's great timing for a massive summertime high pressure system to build over the nation's mid section starting tomorrow and continuing through the upcoming work week.
909 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. An upper trough over the area will weaken on Sunday. Upper level forcing should be weaker with short wave troughs mainly north of the area as upper level trough lifts north. The pattern indicates less thunderstorm coverage but with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure will build into the region for tomorrow, resulting in mostly sunny skies. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 93 73 95 / 30 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 92 70 92 / 20 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 92 / 20 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 91 67 88 / 20 30 10 30.
757 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A weak cold front stretches east-west across the state. The front will move off the coast Sunday with a ridge of high pressure over the state bringing a mostly sunny day.