Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1253 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Warming trend is likely to occur through the middle of the week due to ridging over the area. A return to normal and then perhaps below normal temperatures will be possible later in the week as a trough of low pressure brings cooler air to the area. Afternoon highs look to remain around 80 degrees across the CWA as the cooler air in the valley remains in place. A trough of low pressure coming down from the Gulf of Alaska looks to dive down into the Great Basin this weekend, which will likely break down the blocking pattern over the region.
(Tonight) A cool, dry air mass has settled into the area in wake of the strong cold front that pushed through the region yesterday. These clear conditions will persist overnight, with high pressure present at the surface.
By the end of the week, an approaching storm system will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to the area.
114 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Key Messages: - Chilly Start to Work Week - Dry Rest of Work Week, Wet End to Weekend Rest of Today: Water vapor satellite imagery depicts the lingering upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and mitt of Michigan late this morning; placing the local forecast area in northwest flow.
The cold air will also help deliver the first light snow accumulation of the season to parts of northwest Pennsylvania downwind of Lake Erie and the ridgetops along the Laurel Highlands.
Lake-effect snow has been continuing along the South Shore of Lake Superior, especially within the higher elevations of the Penokee Range. Iron County will likely see snow linger a bit longer into Tuesday morning as the low-level dry air advects east. New snow accumulations tonight into tomorrow morning within the higher elevations of Iron County are expected to be around 1-2", while the Bayfield Peninsula may see a few tenths of an inch. The pattern for the remainder of the workweek will be much quieter than what we've been seeing the past few days as an upper-level ridge moves over the CWA. This ridge will result in an easing of gusty winds and a gradual increase in temps.
Northwesterly winds around 10 knots this afternoon with increase late tonight into Tuesday to around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the wake of a cold front. /22 (Now through Tuesday) An upper level longwave trough will continue to dig southward across much of the eastern U. today and the associated strong cold front we have been advertising is expected to make its way southeastward through our forecast area this afternoon into early this evening. The low RH combined with elevated northerly flow will pose an increased fire danger risk Tuesday. Much cooler temperatures are expected tonight with lows from around 40 to the mid 40s over interior areas and upper 40s to mid 50s along the coast.
Broad ridging continues to dominate across the Rockies, diverting weather well into Canada and the eastern US, with dry air holding across WY. Overnight lows tonight will be a touch higher than last night, with most lower elevations staying above freezing.
215 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Dry northwest flow continues through the short term period between a ridge over the western CONUS and an upper low near the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northern plains will be in control through Tuesday.
727 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Tonight) A cool, dry air mass has settled into the area in wake of the strong cold front that pushed through the region yesterday. These clear conditions will persist overnight, with high pressure present at the surface.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s inland NE FL, and the low to mid 60s for NE FL with mixed layer cloud cover.
Instability and moisture remain across the peninsula ahead of an approaching cold front that looks to bring a welcome change to our weather over the next couple days. However, increasingly BKN to OVC skies are expected into tomorrow, along with increasingly gusty conditions by tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches. Outside of the low chance for any impacts from showers tomorrow in the vicinity of SWFL terminals (which have opted to omit mention of in TAFs at this time due to low probability), VFR conditions are expected to prevail. A cold front will move across the northern Gulf waters tonight and through the remainder of the coastal waters on Tuesday.
A strong upper low is in place over the eastern Great Lakes today, with cyclonic flow reaching as far west through our middle of the CWA. Tonight through Tuesday, we will gradually transition away from the upper low's moisture, into the ridge axis. Thus, a cold breezy night is in store, with lows in the lower 20s over Iowa and MO, and mid to upper 20s over Illinois. Key Message: Warmer air is on the way.
Temperatures will be very similar to today, perhaps a degree or two warmer in spots, topping out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures will continue to remain on the cooler side as the New England Upper level low continues to move out of our region.
630 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Deep upper trough remains over the Central Great Lakes region and extends down into the Tennessee Valley. By Thu afternoon, northwest upper flow will still be in place with some upper ridging setting up over the Southern Rockies. There is good model agreement that by Sat evening, another deep upper trough will be digging over the Western CONUS and into the Rockies by Sun afternoon/evening. This will eventually allow a cold front to surge through Sun afternoon into Sun night. GFS is much wetter along the cold front Sun night into Mon compared to the ECMWF, mainly due to the GFS holding more energy back over the Rockies.
A cold front will then sweep southward over the weekend and usher in cool windy conditions.
SHORT TERM - This afternoon through Tuesday: High pressure aloft will strengthen over the Intermountain West as offshore troughing edges slightly closer to the coast. Onshore flow and cooler temperatures for inland areas are expected today with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. Lows tonight should dip into the lower to mid 50s for most locations. By Tuesday energy consolidates in the base of the upper trough with a closed low evolving offshore from SoCal. As this occurs heights will begin rising across the Bay Area as the upper ridge flexes back in. Readings will remain a bit cooler along the coast however given afternoon sea breeze cooling.
756 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A mainly dry cold front will move through tonight. Cold and dry high pressure is then expected Tuesday into late week with frost possible inland each morning through midweek. Low pressure could develop offshore this weekend. The strong cold front enters the CWA close to midnight and the cold dry air starts pouring in.
Later in the week, a cold front is still expected to push through the region and could still bring some precipitation. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge remains over the intermountain west, continuing the trend of dry and mild conditions.
632 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Key Messages: - Chilly Start to Work Week - Dry Rest of Work Week, Wet End to Weekend Rest of Today: Water vapor satellite imagery depicts the lingering upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and mitt of Michigan late this morning; placing the local forecast area in northwest flow.
Cooler with a chance of rain this weekend. Upper level trough is digging to our west and will begin to close off well off the coast of SoCal tonight into tomorrow. A few high clouds are starting to filter into NorCal as this trough digs and we will continue to see high clouds across the area into tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise we are in for another quiet week as that trough stays closed off to our south and upper level ridging builds in from the east. With the ridge building in we will see warming temperatures this week.
849 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area through this evening.
635 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A cold front has moved south of our forecast area today, with some lingering cloud cover south of Interstate 20. A closed low pressure system deepening over the Great Lakes region today will continue a cold, dry advection pattern across our forecast area through the day tomorrow. The continued cold advection should push temps down to the lower and mid 30s around the US Highway 82 corridor in AR and northern MS tonight, and to around 40 degrees as far south as the US Highway 84 corridor through south MS and central LA.
823 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Brrr! Temperatures continue to tumble this evening in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area last night, with current readings in the 40s. This along with clear skies and dewpoints now down into the 10s/20s should allow temps to drop below freezing for everyone except the Nashville Urban Heat Island which will likely only get to right around or just above freezing. However, outlying areas of Davidson County and the suburbs should fall below freezing.
524 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A sprawling ridge of high pressure dominated the western CONUS and upper low pressure trough prevailed over the eastern CONUS. Winds beneath the ridge were variable to light northerly. The ridge will strengthen and position itself over the Rockies and High Plains for the next few days.
515 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Water vapor analysis depicts deep upper trough over the the Great Lakes, slowly pivoting eastward. Upper ridging continues across the western half of the US with our forecast area on the eastern periphery of the ridge. A surface baroclinic zone is draped across western South Dakota with high pressure centered over southern Manitoba. Cool, northwest flow will continue through Tuesday making for a similar day, albeit warmer across northeastern Wyoming.
By the end of the week, an approaching storm system will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to the area. Scattered high clouds over the western parts of the CWA this evening is associated with moisture from a low pressure system over the Eastern Pacific.
535 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Dry northwest flow continues through the short term period between a ridge over the western CONUS and an upper low near the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northern plains will be in control through Tuesday.
Southerly winds 10-15 kts veer to westerly ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the north.
226 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A persistent area of high pressure will continue to provide mild afternoons, cool nights, and light breezes through the upcoming work week. A pattern change is possible this weekend as a strong cold front could yield much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for precipitation across the region. A benign pattern continues in the short term as a blocking ridge remains rooted over the Western CONUS. A weak trough will be able to work its way as far east as the coast of California overnight into Tuesday.
737 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A strong cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by cool high pressure into the weekend. The cold front isn't too far upstream and will begin to enter the interior of the forecast area late this evening into the early morning hours. By late tonight the front will be well offshore and much cooler and drier air will filter in. Elsewhere, lows will mostly be in the low to mid 50s.
327 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 The upper low drifting over New Mexico continues to push a ribbon of moisture into southern Colorado. Cumulus formation has been concentrated west of the Highway 145 corridor in Delores county and southward, as well as the Sawatch. Meanwhile, ample dry air is fighting back and ultimately will win out over the next 24 hours and beyond as the West Slope dries out completely and high pressure takes over for the remainder of the work week. As mentioned in earlier discussions, the weather will be pretty unremarkable (or remarkable depending on your perspective) through the work week as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure persists over the West through midweek.
Rain chances should wind down late this evening for most areas as the upper- level low gets absorbed into the larger-scale trough over the eastern US. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s.
542 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 The upper low drifting over New Mexico continues to push a ribbon of moisture into southern Colorado. Cumulus formation has been concentrated west of the Highway 145 corridor in Delores county and southward, as well as the Sawatch. Meanwhile, ample dry air is fighting back and ultimately will win out over the next 24 hours and beyond as the West Slope dries out completely and high pressure takes over for the remainder of the work week. As mentioned in earlier discussions, the weather will be pretty unremarkable (or remarkable depending on your perspective) through the work week as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure persists over the West through midweek.
621 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (Through tonight ) Some mid and not too low low-clouds are streaming south down the plains on the back side of the large upper low over the Great Lakes. So for now we don't seem them impacting the low temperature forecast for morning. except at the higher elevations of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. We expanded Freeze Warning a little south in southeast Okalhoma where many areas will get near freezing, and cooler valleys get below freezing.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 723 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over New Mexico, cutoff from NW flow aloft over the central CONUS. 24-hour MRMS totals suggest all of Southeast New Mexico and the lowlands of West Texas have generally received a quarter of an inch or better, negating fire weather concerns and reducing the rainfall deficit somewhat.
1022 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A strong cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by cool high pressure into the weekend. The cold front isn't too far upstream and will begin to enter the interior of the forecast area late this evening into the early morning hours. By late tonight the front will be well offshore and much cooler and drier air will filter in. Elsewhere, lows will mostly be in the low to mid 50s.
Freezing temperatures remain likely for most of the forecast area, and a hard freeze can be expected in parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
Our CWA is at the southern periphery of northerly flow between a powerful trough to our northeast and a powerful ridge to our northwest. This pattern is favorable for the development of a strong anticyclone over the Plains, and indeed obs indicate a 1030 mb high over South Dakota. Moderate northerly surface flow has advected a cooler continental polar airmass over us. Given the fact that dewpoints are already near 15 in northern Oklahoma, clear skies will continue, and winds should decrease overnight, we expect temperatures to drop below freezing across northern Oklahoma near daybreak.
Inland locations west of Madison where model soundings and 12z HREF prog cloud cover to break up first, are likely to see temps fall into the mid to upper 20s, while areas closer to the lake where cloud cover is expected to hold on a bit longer will likely hover around the freezing mark. Looking at highs to crack into the low to mid 40s. With less wind and cloud cover, southern WI will be in for another cold night as lows fall below freezing for another night.
202 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The cloud cover in the northeast was a bit more robust through the evening hours than originally forecast, resulting in temps trending 3-5F warmer.
327 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the pattern today. The western edge of a deep upper trough is still drawing in much cooler than normal air on northerly flow. Winds will shift to the southwest tonight as high pressure exits, but should remain light until Wednesday afternoon when breezes pick up out of the west to northwest. Leaned toward the CONSMOS for the lower end of guidance. Upper level ridging will slowly shift eastward early in the period, bringing warmer temperatures into the region.
Guidance pivots this feature south across lower Michigan today, but with trough axis extending west could see some enhanced ascent and perhaps even some sprinkles or a light shower this today. - Izzi The upper low over the Great Lakes region will finally lift northeast beginning Wednesday night as a weakening western CONUS ridge shifts east.
These showers and isolated thunderstorms did pack quite a punch as around a half inch to almost an inch of rainfall fell across portions of the Lower and Upper Keys. This is in advance of an approaching cold front entering the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Blended guidance mean (NBM) high temp forecast of 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday jives with amount of cooling at H85. Not only will lows dip below freezing pretty much everywhere, but most areas will receive a hard/killing freeze (defined as 27F or colder), thereby ending the 2022 growing season.
This will bring much cooler temperatures and very dry air to the state. The ridge will begin to settle over eastern OK/western AR from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As notable as the cool daytime highs will be, temperatures nearly statewide are expected to fall below freezing Wednesday morning.
224 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Key Points: - Freezing temperatures this morning and again Wednesday morning. Similar synoptic features dominate the upper-level pattern once again this morning as an low spins over the Great Lakes region and ridging centered over the Idaho/Montana Rockies. Cool temperatures will continue to be the theme of the day as high temperatures will only climb into the low to mid 40s despite sunny skies. This will rebound temperatures during the day back into the low to mid 60s with the warmer air staying in central KS. Beyond Wednesday, dry conditions will continue into the weekend as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s.
1147 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Dry northwest flow continues through the short term period between a ridge over the western CONUS and an upper low near the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northern plains will be in control through Tuesday.
318 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The same pattern continues today with the upper level high over Idaho, and north flow over North Dakota. High temperatures will range from the low 40s in the east to the lower 60s in the west. They are cooler in the east.
1038 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Key Messages: - Chilly Start to Work Week - Dry Rest of Work Week, Wet End to Weekend Rest of Today: Water vapor satellite imagery depicts the lingering upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and mitt of Michigan late this morning; placing the local forecast area in northwest flow.
17Z obs are showing a highly amplified upper level wind pattern with a large low and trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the intermountain west. At the surface a large area of high pressure over the northern plains is keeping the area sunny.
1221 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Brrr! Temperatures continue to tumble this evening in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area last night, with current readings in the 40s. This along with clear skies and dewpoints now down into the 10s/20s should allow temps to drop below freezing for everyone except the Nashville Urban Heat Island which will likely only get to right around or just above freezing. However, outlying areas of Davidson County and the suburbs should fall below freezing. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Cooler air now filtering in this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 50s north and the lower 60s south. Freezing temps will again be possible for Wednesday night.
1127 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2022 The upper low drifting over New Mexico continues to push a ribbon of moisture into southern Colorado. Cumulus formation has been concentrated west of the Highway 145 corridor in Delores county and southward, as well as the Sawatch. Meanwhile, ample dry air is fighting back and ultimately will win out over the next 24 hours and beyond as the West Slope dries out completely and high pressure takes over for the remainder of the work week. As mentioned in earlier discussions, the weather will be pretty unremarkable (or remarkable depending on your perspective) through the work week as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure persists over the West through midweek.
This area of 8-10 kft clouds looks to be more or less associated with a band of increased moisture aloft emanating from the upper low over the Great Lakes. This area of clearing is brought to us by high pressure settling in over the region. As the aforementioned high pressure drifts out of the area by this evening, some cloud cover may work its way across the region from west to east, keeping lows in the 20s. Wednesday is then expected to see a rapid warm up as a weak warm front sets up over the area. Winds will increase a bit out of the west-northwest, advecting in the warmer air, as high temperatures soar into the 50s to low 60s. Even with the presence of the warm front, dry antecedent conditions will stymie any precipitation chances.
300 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 A strong upper level trough continues to sit over the eastern Great Lakes while slowly progressing eastward. Wednesday morning looks to be the coldest with lows in the low 20s expected in southeast Kansas. By daytime Wednesday the upper flow will begin to shift from the north to northwest as ridging builds overhead.
Skies will clear overnight and winds may remain somewhat elevated over the warmer waters of the larger area lakes. Overnight lows expected to range from the lower 40s west to upper 40s east, as dewpoints continue to fall into the 30s by daybreak Tuesday. Much colder and drier airmass settles over the area Tuesday behind the cold front as a strong Canadian airmass settles over the central CONUS. Colder conditions will continue for Wednesday with near record low max temps with highs in the low 60s (record for Columbia: 62, Augusta: 63). Temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s across the area as a result. Dry cold front moving toward the coast.
207 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 (06Z TAFS) Northeasterly flow is expected to prevail today with the cold front pushing south and approaching our region tonight and tomorrow. Instability and moisture remain across the peninsula ahead of an approaching cold front that looks to bring a welcome change to our weather over the next couple days. A cold front will move across the northern Gulf waters tonight and through the remainder of the coastal waters on Tuesday. By Wednesday evening into the end of the week, winds are expected to ease somewhat and should remain below 15 kts with dry conditions expected as high pressure remains in control.
123 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022 A strong cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by cool high pressure into the weekend. The sfc cold front was across the forecast area early this morning, sweeping steadily east.
322 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 The Freeze Warning looks on track with temperatures close or already below freezing across the area. At the surface, low pressure was located over the Great Lakes with high pressure over the Plains. With very low PWATS and subsidence on the backside of the upper low, will keep the forecast dry through tomorrow. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees cooler as winds will be lighter than this morning. Winds will switch out of the west by Wednesday afternoon as the CAA ends, so will go with highs a few degrees warmer. Britt There is good agreement with latest runs of the ensembles that a deep trough will lift out of the eastern CONUS by late week before another trough digs into the West Coast early in the weekend.
(Today and tonight) A much cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region today behind a cold front.