Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1157 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 The elongated trough is currently stretched across the Great Basin with its base over southern California, opening over the Northern Rockies. As the trough axis progresses eastward this morning, the jet will push eastward. Isolated showers developing along the trough's axis in combination with weak dynamic support from the exiting jet will result in an increase in coverage early this morning. The base of the mid- level trough will straddle the CWA this afternoon, pushing across the Front Range by midnight tonight. Anticipate temperatures dropping behind the trough passage this afternoon and below freezing conditions across the board by Saturday morning. A weak ridge develops overhead Saturday bringing mostly dry conditions across the CWA, besides the aformentioned showers lingering along the Divide.
Aloft, scattered to broken high clouds rotating around the large upper ridge covering the entire gulf of Mexico are adding to a more hazy sky than has been seen over the last couple of days.
The upper trough near the four-corners will move toward the High Plains overnight, but it looks like most of the DPVA associated with this will remain west northwest of our CWA through the night given the height pattern. With this in mind, have generally lowered the high POPs overnight. Still think there is some potential for elevated convection across the area (given the approach of the upper trough, the current convection in the Texas panhandle, and potential that the warm nose at 600 mb could modify overnight), so will keep low POPs almost everywhere, with somewhat higher POPs southeast.
Mostly clear and warm for tonight with lows in the low/mid 60s inland and upper 60s ne Fl coast.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain the quiet conditions across the region through tonight. These features will begin relaxing their grip on the region through the course of the day Saturday, in response to a deepening closed low lifting from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. That said, with the cold front approaching from the west late in the period, i.
Expect much cooler conditions today and tonight with many areas 15 degrees below normal.
A large mid/upper level trough/low continues to drift across the southwest US with the surface reflection deepening across eastern Colorado. Weak forcing for ascent continues to move northeast ahead of the main trough allowing a few showers to move overhead with mainly drizzle/low clouds and fog over the region. This should continue into the evening with increasing chances for widespread showers overnight as forcing increases ahead of the approaching mid/upper level low. In addition, a sharp temperature gradient will be in place as the low passes overhead during peak heating. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the low could create a bit of a mix of wintry weather for some time on Saturday.
As the cold front approaches from the west, rain chances will increase on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be most likely central and east near the cold front.
These storms will spread across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois overnight before chances decrease by 12Z as the low level jet veers. Focus then switches to tomorrow when an upper low moves across the Plains which will bring large scale ascent to Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon and early evening. Greatest threat will be over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois which will be closest to the retreating warm front and CAMS is showing the most discrete cells, particularly given the orientation of the deep shear vector to the front.
Shear is also expected to increase through the night as the low level jet kicks in leading to high Bulk Shear and high SRH values.
402 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 An upper level trough will shift east of the forecast area tonight.
330 PM PDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Dry and warmer today, then unsettled weather over the weekend with showers and mountain snow showers.
/issued 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/ An upper trough extending from ID to Srn CA this morning will swing across AZ today into NM tonight before lifting across the Panhandle Saturday morning. After that will have brief ridging aloft.
Ridging will continue overnight tonight, and an increase in cloud coverage means temps will remain a few degrees warmer than last night. A pleasant night is in store for the region as a strengthening low pressure system moves out of the Colorado Rockies toward the Great Lakes. It looks like we will be able to squeeze out another great day on Saturday with sufficient sunshine and southerly winds to boost temperatures back into the lower 80s. Saturday night, an occluding low across the western Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front across the Ohio Valley through West Tennessee.
Primary meteorological concern is the amount of impact that vigorous closed upper low moving into east-central Colorado by sunrise Saturday will provide the area.
The 00z KEY sounding reflected the strength of this high, with a 500 mb height of 5920 meters observed. High pressure centered near Bermuda will lumber to the southeast over the next few days.
658 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 /00Z TAFS/ Look for VFR conditions to continue, for the next 24 hours, Another cold front will push into West Central Texas, from the west, tonight and bring gusty winds from the west. Otherwise, expect cooler conditions for tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
The low will continue to deepen and push through SE CO into late this afternoon and evening. More widespread lift will move into the region over the next few hours as ongoing cyclogenesis continues increasing coverage of precipitation along the CO/WY border and the Cheyenne Ridge. Widespread 1-2 inches of snowfall is expected tonight with localized spots up to 5 inches along the Pine Ridge and Wildcat Hills. However, afternoon temperatures will climb into the low 40s so expecting the fresh snowpack to crust over by midday limiting the driftability of snow.
Low temps will be seasonable, and Saturday's highs will be a little warmer than today.
937 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 A mid/upper level ridge axis centered across Florida will continue to strengthen through Saturday. Lows tonight remaining above average in the mid to upper 60s, except in rural portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, where temperatures could fall to the low 60s.
720 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 For the ArkLaTex sfc gusts are slacking now, but sustained around 10KT will persist in advance of a deep upper trough and eventual fropa this wknd. /Tonight through Saturday night/ Another day of dry conditions and above normal temperatures as upper ridging continues to expand into our region, with the center of the ridge still parked over the Gulf of Mexico. By tonight, the upper ridge will start to shift eastward as the center of the high in the gulf moves east. At the same time, an upper trough in the Great Basin Region will push eastward into Colorado and will start to strengthen and close off as it moves into the Central Plains by Saturday morning, dragging a cold front with it towards our region.
Warmer temperatures will arrive on Sunday with additional shower activity, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. As the warm front slides east overnight, the precipitation will become more scattered and convective in nature. Though surface-based instability will remain weak into Sunday, warmer temperatures aloft will produce elevated instability from mid-morning through late afternoon across most of NY and PA.
1210 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 High pressure will prevail with unseasonably warm temperatures until a weak cold front pushes through Sunday night.
Despite some greening up, will go ahead and issue a red flag warning from noon to 7 pm for NE OK as afternoon temps in the lower to mid 70s, RH value falling to the 20-30 percent range and wind gusts to 35 mph are expected. Dry weather will continue for the remainder of the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday.
Breezy conditions will develop Sunday with the passage of the surface cold front.
Expect more showers and possibly a thunderstorm to develop south of this area late tonight as a second upper level wave rides eastward along a warm front. Convective activity looks to encounter and increasingly capped atmosphere as temperatures aloft warm quickly under the ridge. The Warm front will drive northward this morning, allowing for the bulk of the showers this afternoon to be focused over the northern half of the forecast area. Atmosphere remains capped as the warmer air aloft surges northward. Surface warm front will push north of the area tonight as the upper level ridge experience one more brief amplification.
244 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 08z surface analysis had low over south central KS with trough into western NE. Water vapour showed upper low spinning up over northeast CO. Grassland fire danger will reach the high/very high category.
326 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 High pressure aloft will remain over the region through the weekend, keeping well above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions in place.
332 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 High pressure is situated across the western Atlantic this morning. while low pressure is across western Oklahoma. The low pressure will move northeast into the Mid Mississippi River Valley today and tonight, then into the central Great Lakes by early Sunday. The low pressure will drag a cold front through the CWA during the day Sunday. The higher res models show the system weakening as is approaches the CWA, but still some stronger reflectivity is noted across the far NW corner before the precip fizzles out. The highest pops remain near the GA/TN/NC border.
The upper level ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico today will slide east tonight and tomorrow as an upper level trough across the western U. At the surface, the region will remain on the western edge of the high. While the low level flow remains southerly and fog is expected again tonight (including some dense fog), the shifting pattern will allow for deep layer southerly flow by Saturday. The upper level ridge remains centered south and east of the CWA through the short term. A cold front will track into the southeast on Sunday, however it will be weakening as it progresses eastward.
Ridging will continue overnight tonight, and an increase in cloud coverage means temps will remain a few degrees warmer than last night. Other than that, VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period as we await the arrival of our cold front just beyond the end of this period. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 74 53 70 / 10 70 50 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 74 52 68 / 10 50 50 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 63 74 50 70 / 10 60 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 73 48 67 / 10 30 60 0 10.
A Warm front will drive northward this morning, allowing for the bulk of the showers this afternoon to be focused over the northern half of the forecast area. Atmosphere remains capped as the warmer air aloft surges northward. Surface warm front will push north of the area tonight as the upper level ridge experience one more brief amplification.
As we move through the next few hours, the aformentioned high-amplitude trough axis continues to progress eastward. Lingering showers in the higher terrain near the Continental Divide are possible this evening and overnight. However, only 2-4 inches can should be expected in the highest elevations. Thanks to the colder air, cloud cover, and precipitation today, temperatures have remained much cooler than normal in many places. On Sunday morning, a trough moves eastward across the Great Basin.
251 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Another day of above normal temperatures will be present in the Missouri Ozarks today ahead of deep trough sweeping through across the central CONUS. This system will clear to our east by the early evening, leaving behind cooler temperatures.
There will be a feed of Pacific moisture into the western mountains for isolated to scattered snow showers in the higher terrain, and isolated rain showers in the valleys and foothills.
This weekend will largely be a transition day as weak northwest flow shifts southwesterly by Sunday in response to a trough of low pressure digging south along the west coast. This will bring warmer, near normal temperatures along with mainly light, terrain based precipitation today and early Sunday.
246 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Montana will be in an upper ridge today and Sunday with warm temperatures and dry weather.
An upper level trough will shift east of the forecast area tonight.
Model soundings predict a fairly deep mixing layer in the afternoon over the region, so even warmer temperatures look likely for Sunday based on H850 temps and dry adiabatic lapse rates during max heating. To start off, dry conditions will be present as the region will be under a ridge with troughing occurring over the western CONUS and a strong mid level low located over the central Great Lakes region.
Forecast remains on track today with a strong area of low pressure moving across the forecast area.
Late afternoon and into this evening, WAA ahead of the strengthening primary low will begin to push the boundary back north as a warm front. A few storms may form along the warm front along and south of I-35, though the degree of coverage is in question. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, additional storms are more likely to form north of the warm front. The primary low and associated Pacific cold front will pass through the central Plains Saturday, setting up a strong pressure gradient in its wake across northeast Kansas and surrounding areas. Winds will gradually weaken Saturday night and into Sunday as the low lifts farther to the northeast.
A Pacific cold front will move east across the terminals overnight. /issued 658 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/ /00Z TAFS/ Look for VFR conditions to continue, for the next 24 hours, Another cold front will push into West Central Texas, from the west, tonight and bring gusty winds from the west. Otherwise, expect cooler conditions for tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
The storms should be east of our forecast area by mid-morning, and cooler and much drier air will rush in from the west.
341 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper level low over Colorado this morning will move over the central Plains, ending up over Iowa by this evening. Given we are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we maintained our inherited warmer highs than any blend option. As the low pressure system in the Great Lakes moves further east through Sunday evening and overnight, winds will diminish in the Quad State region.
337 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The primary trough axis associated with an upper level low is currently positioned over eastern New Mexico and will shift across our area as the system transitions into the Central Plains today. The strongest pressure gradient forcing will be this morning, before beginning to ease on the backside of the low amid stronger cyclogenesis later in the day over the Missouri River Valley. Cloud cover, low ERC, and cooler temperatures will also help alleviate fire weather concerns somewhat. Ultimately, RH values will drop into the low teens and with the elevated winds, we'll be issuing a Fire Danger Statement from 11 AM through 7 PM CDT for the entire CWA. We'll cool into mid 30s on the Caprock overnight, and the low 40s across the Rolling Plains.
Primary meteorological concern is the amount of impact that vigorous closed upper low moving into east-central Colorado by sunrise Saturday will provide the area. Moisture starts to increase Sunday afternoon ahead of the next upper trough taking shape across the western U.
254 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 (Today and Tonight) A Pacific cold front is currently moving east across the area early this morning. The front will usher in a much drier airmass, along with cooler temperatures today. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east with clear skies by this afternoon, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur as a cold front sweeps across the area Saturday night followed by windy conditions on Sunday. The warm front will likely push just north of the area Saturday morning. Chances for showers thunderstorms increase once again Saturday night as a cold front moves through the area. Currently, a line of thunderstorms appears possible along the cold front. Deep low pressure lifting across the Western Great Lakes will drag a cold front across the ILN area on Sunday. Though rain chances will diminish quickly as deep moisture and forcing exit to the east, a very tight pressure gradient surrounding the cold front will allow wind gusts around 40 knots, possibly requiring a wind advisory.
The upper ridge responsible for the heat will remain over the Southeast for one more day, bringing near-record warmth again on Saturday. A weakening cold front will be approaching northwest Georgia by early Sunday morning.
332 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 A pacific cold front is currently moving across the CWA this morning, but a more accurate description may be a "dry front" as dewpoints are dropping much more behind the front than temperatures.
These will spread east Saturday with thunderstorms accompanying the approaching cold front. WV imagery shows approaching upper level trof moving across the southwestern US this afternoon. Models show the trof advancing overnight and starting to become a bit negatively tilted by tomorrow morning, as it begins to attenuate and lift into the Great Lakes region. Of note is a strong upper level jet rotating around the base of the trof, with a jet max of 130-150 kts extending thru OK into MO by tomorrow night. A cold front will be pushing thru the area tomorrow and tomorrow night.
311 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain and scattered thunderstorms today - Marginal Risk of Severe weather tonight - Strong winds on Sunday - Today Some elevated instability will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms through this morning north of surface warm front. So we will have to watch for these storms moving into Van Buren and Kalamazoo County as being sfc-based before they move east or northeast and become more elevated to the north of the surface warm front during the evening.
421 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper low will move from the eastern plains into the Great Lakes this afternoon into Sunday. The tail end of the system will drag a cold front across the area this afternoon through tonight. Forecast high temperatures cool back down into the 70s on Sunday for most of the area behind the storm system as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds back into the region for the latter half of the weekend.
Today Through Sunday Night Breezy S winds noted acrs the region this mrng, with predawn temps in the lower and mid 70s common.
644 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper level low across eastern Colorado is expected to rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the local area today. Of greater significance today will be the strong northwesterly winds associated with the intensifying low pressure system.
446 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper level low over Colorado this morning will move over the central Plains, ending up over Iowa by this evening. Given we are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we maintained our inherited warmer highs than any blend option. As the low pressure system in the Great Lakes moves further east through Sunday evening and overnight, winds will diminish in the Quad State region.
254 AM MST Sat Mar 28 2020 A warming and drying trend will continue the next several days as high pressure builds across the Desert Southwest.
A quasi- stationary boundary is draped across central Missouri will move north as a warm front given the deep low moving out of the central plains towards the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be mild today in the low to middle 70s. The cooler air will move into the region late tonight behind the cold front and so max temps on Sunday will be around 10 degrees cooler but with sunny skies and less wind, Sunday will be a decent day.
215 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Fair and dry weather today will give way to increasing clouds and a chance for showers as a weak trough drops south over the West.
H7 frontogenesis is very likely playing a role in local enhancements as well as the terrain influences with the Platte River Valley and Cheyenne Ridge coming into play.
An upper level low across eastern Colorado is expected to rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the local area today. Of greater significance today will be the strong northwesterly winds associated with the intensifying low pressure system.
/issued 332 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ A pacific cold front is currently moving across the CWA this morning, but a more accurate description may be a "dry front" as dewpoints are dropping much more behind the front than temperatures.
/issued 254 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A Pacific cold front is currently moving east across the area early this morning. The front will usher in a much drier airmass, along with cooler temperatures today. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east with clear skies by this afternoon, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
South of this feature, a tightening pressure gradient and attendant cold front will develop. During the afternoon, Middle Tennessee looks to stay dry as temperatures soar into the low 80s. Storm mode will remain highly variant on the low-level wind fields and the potential presence of an inversion. Rain will push east of the CWA by sunrise, leaving us with a partly cloudy sky and temperatures warming into the low 70s.
A high amplitude ridge complex is centered nearly atop the Florida Keys, lending support to the strengthening lower tropospheric anticyclone just to our northeast. East to southeast breezes have freshened over the past 24 hours in concert with the strengthening anticyclone. High pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda will lumber a bit to the southeast over the next few days.
A warming and drying trend will continue the next several days as high pressure builds across the Desert Southwest.
848 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Hot and dry today with ridging in place across the area at the surface and aloft. Temperatures are on track to reach into the mid to upper 80s along the coast and into the lower to mid 90s inland.
402 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper level low across eastern Colorado is expected to rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the local area today. Of greater significance today will be the strong northwesterly winds associated with the intensifying low pressure system.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Montana will be in an upper ridge today and Sunday with warm temperatures and dry weather.
528 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 08z surface analysis had low over south central KS with trough into western NE. Water vapour showed upper low spinning up over northeast CO. Grassland fire danger will reach the high/very high category.
A cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon through the overnight hours, and this will bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions, as showers and storms move across the area. /15/ An upper low will move from the eastern plains into the Great Lakes this afternoon into Sunday. The tail end of the system will drag a cold front across the area this afternoon through tonight. Forecast high temperatures cool back down into the 70s on Sunday for most of the area behind the storm system as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds back into the region for the latter half of the weekend.
Although snowfall rates could exceed an inch per hour in that area for a time tonight, accumulations will initially be hampered by wet ground and above freezing temperatures.