Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
5 to 1 km deep saturation layers positioned between -10 and 0 C with a lack of ice aloft across the James Valley and points east this morning, so would not be shocked to see some patchy freezing drizzle. Overall chances for freezing drizzle decrease during the afternoon as the depth of the saturation layers decreases. Locations on or west of the Missouri River will see somewhat warmer air, between 30 and 38 degrees. The models continue to be in much disagreement with the track and timing of the system, as well as with the strength of high pressure dropping in behind the system.
Weak upper ridging then spreads overhead Wednesday night into Thursday, which will keep things mostly quiet.
651 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure will build east across the region today.
The better chances for rain heading into this afternoon should be in the south as an area of low pressure develops and skirts along the coast. Upper ridging will begin to build in from the west this evening and overnight.
627 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Lingering flurries and perhaps a spot of freezing drizzle will end early today.
Deep and dry NW flow this morning will trend more moist beginning late tonight and especially through the day on Thursday as cool high pressure retreats northeast. As pressure falls focus to our west tomorrow in advance of a respectable upper trough approaching far West TX, models favor stratus expanding westward over much of the CWA making for a very cool day thanks to steady NE surface winds. Blended guidance looks a bit too mild in this pattern, so highs tomorrow were edged more in sync with the cooler MOS numbers. Although isentropic ascent will be in its infancy for much of Thu well downstream of the upper trough, a coastal trough should focus better convergence (mainly over the waters) for some shallow showers throughout the day.
326 AM MST Wed Jan 29 2020 Increasing and lowering clouds today as a weak disturbance passes through the High PLains and adjacent High Terrain today from west to east. These snow showers will spread east, mainly effecting the High Terrain, along the Laramie Range and west, though areas along the Wyoming side of the Pine Ridge will also receive light snow. Light precipitation is also possible to the east, but may fall as mixed precipitation with afternoon surface temperatures barely above freezing, and the possibility for wet bulbing down to zero. A brief period of clearing will follow with patchy fog possible across the lowest elevations.
647 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Increasing moisture ahead of a low pressure area approaching from the Gulf will lead to increasing mid and high level clouds aoa 100 at all of the terminals during the day. /issued 407 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020/ Weak ridging is in place across the area this morning, with an area of low pressure in place over the northern Gulf on the LA coast. This low will quickly push eastward today, with the moisture ahead of it bringing some rain chances across the area this afternoon and evening and clearing from the west overnight as the low crosses the state into the Atlantic.
409 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Southern stream system beginning to affect forecast area with mostly light snow, though do have some sleet and freezing rain over portions of southeast MO where a warm nose aloft, about +2C, is causing melting of the ice crystals. Will see some mix of light snow and rain this afternoon as temperatures warm up above freezing, mainly over portions of southwestern IL.
Some relief is forecast later Thursday morning as the low level moisture scours out a bit, which may allow the on and off precipitation to come to an end. Will continue to hit these events with SPS statements as the freezing drizzle is not widespread enough for a formal headline at this time.
Conditions will improve this afternoon, as low pressure passes to the southeast of Arkansas, drier air moves in, and winds increase a bit. Low level moisture will continue to flow up over the attendant warm front into Arkansas, which will keep rain over the area initially. As the low clears the region later this morning, drier air will move in behind it at the lower levels, with precip coming to an end. However, it will remain cloudy, as there will be plenty of mid and upper level moisture remaining, as the longwave trough pushing the surface system will be a little slower to move out. On Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify, as an upper ridge will pass through the Gulf of Mexico and a trough digs down into west Texas and Northern Mexico.
/issued 422 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ The 500 mb trof which brought very windy conditions to the eastern half of the CWA yesterday is now well off to the east and ridging will take its place today. A light rain-snow mix is possible Thursday AM across the western and northern areas, however models have trended down with QPF across the entire CWA due to positioning of the upper low and lack of deep moisture and upper lift. Temperatures should warm above freezing by Thursday afternoon and precip will transition to liquid thereafter, but a dusting of snow will still be possible in some areas with up to an inch in the highest elevations of the Guadlupe Mountains.
402 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Cold front approaching Acadiana early this morning and can be seen by a few very light returns on local radar.
203 AM PST Wed Jan 29 2020 A dry northerly flow will continue today as high pressure builds over the West. Over the Great Basin, an area of low pressure is noted moving southward down the Nevada/Utah border.
509 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Under partly cloudy skies and light northwest winds, temperatures range from the lower to upper 60s along the Florida keys. Quick sensible weather changes will continue in our area with no measurable rainfall anticipated today, but there is a good chance that a swath of showers will preceded and accompany a weak cold front pushing through our region tonight.
Increasing moisture and lift associated with these features will lead to increasing cloudiness across the forecast area the remainder of today with shower chances also increasing by late in the afternoon, with the highest rain chances (Pops 50-60%) expected during tonight as this system moves across the area. Increasing moisture ahead of a low pressure area approaching from the Gulf will lead to increasing mid and high level clouds aoa 100 at all of the terminals the remainder of today. As the low approaches shower chances will increase across the north-central waters during mid to late afternoon with the showers then spreading south and east across the remainder of the waters tonight as the low moves across the region.
518 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure provides mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures today.
429 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure will build east across the region today.
However, forecast models then try to advance the low clouds west again after sunset this evening, which seems reasonable. High temperatures today will likely climb back above freezing for most areas, but will likely not get out of the mid 30s from Grand Island and Hastings eastward where we will keep more clouds around and where we still have some snow on the ground.
An upper level trough will pass through northern and western Utah this morning.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and another jump in temperatures by this weekend. As a prelude to a stronger coastal split flow, a strong ridge of high pressure will elongate from offshore through Arizona over the weekend.
An inverted trough extending northward from a low center situated along the Gulf Coast is also helping to focus some of this moisture. An upper ridge will briefly affect our weather tomorrow.
Generally a half inch or less is expected, but around an inch can be expected in the higher elevations of the southeast zones (i. Afterwards, a broad upper ridge will move in from the Pacific Northwest.
Cloudy with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s are expected Thursday. Weak high pressure over the region Thursday, then next system moves into the central plains. Persistence forecast continues on Thursday with the low level ridge overhead, resulting in more low clouds, light wind, and highs in the low to mid 30s.
These features will support increasing cloudiness and shower chances across the forecast area the remainder of the afternoon, with the highest rain chances (Pops in the 40-60% range) expected tonight as the aforementioned features move across the area.
326 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperatures before a weak disturbance possibly results in light snow/rain southeast of Pittsburgh on Thursday. Overall, lows will end up below normal and be noticeably cooler than observed recently. Any snow accumulation will be minor (a half inch or less) and limited to the ridges.
MRM Southern stream system beginning to affect forecast area with mostly light snow, though do have some sleet and freezing rain over portions of southeast MO where a warm nose aloft, about +2C, is causing melting of the ice crystals. Will see some mix of light snow and rain this afternoon as temperatures warm up above freezing, mainly over portions of southwestern IL.
Abundant cloud cover and the cooler airmass will result in a chilly day tomorrow, with daytime highs mainly in the lower 40s. Aloft, an upper trough over the Desert Southwest will drop south into northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning and will move east into West and southwest Texas by late afternoon.
A chance for wintry precip in the form of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain/snow is possible mainly at LBB and PVW from 12-15Z tomorrow morning, however confidence is very low at the moment. For the beginning of the event, temperature soundings are so close, it could go either way for freezing rain or snow, just the difference of a couple degrees aloft. We have kept totals on the lower side as, mentioned above, the best lift with this system misses us. A cold front will be pulled through on the backside of this system, and model runs coming in as this discussion is being typed are now trying to pump out some very meager PoPs with its passage.
333 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Persistence forecast in play across SE MI through the mid week period as a stubborn inversion layer holds around 800mb, maintaining the current stratus deck, while very little temperature advection is observed in the low-levels.
Drier dew points mixing down from aloft will help to lift and maybe even scatter the low decks this afternoon. Just as the low clouds go in places they may redevelop with low level moisture lingering. Upper low to our South early Fri shwrs w/ a warmer/drier wknd with W/SW sfc wind. Low-level moisture will remain entrenched across the region with wrap-around clouds persisting on backside of departing upper- trough the short term period ending Thursday.
1204 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Southern stream system beginning to affect forecast area with mostly light snow, though do have some sleet and freezing rain over portions of southeast MO where a warm nose aloft, about +2C, is causing melting of the ice crystals. Will see some mix of light snow and rain this afternoon as temperatures warm up above freezing, mainly over portions of southwestern IL.
1229 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Lingering flurries and perhaps a spot of freezing drizzle will end early today.
103 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure north of the region will move east tonight as cloudy skies continue to prevail.
226 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 A couple of weak southern stream upper level troughs are on the way to visit west Texas and southeast New Mexico in the short term. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for light rain, light freezing rain and light snow Thursday morning. By afternoon precipitation should be all liquid except in the Davis Mountains and portions of the lower Trans Pecos where a light mix will continue to be possible. Precipitation chances should decrease Thursday evening as the trough axis moves east of the region.
At the surface, the pattern was relatively weak with general high pressure over much of the Great Plains. Nevertheless there has been enough insolation for temps to warm above freezing and decent snow melt this afternoon.
Anything from rain, snow, and/or a low chance at freezing rain is possible. Amounts will be on the low side, but if it falls on cold road surfaces, particularly secondary roads or parking lots, conditions Thursday morning could be quite slick.
137 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Current GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis showing a trough of low pressure passing through the region. A ridge of high pressure builds into the area tonight, but don't plan on any clearing as moisture remains trapped under the subsidence inversion. However, if dense fog does form, could see some slick roads in addition to the reduced visibilities, especially bridges and overpasses. Thursday looking cloudy once again between departing high pressure and approaching trough of low pressure from the Northern Plains. Another trough of low pressure moves into the region Thursday night. May have to watch for some patchy freezing drizzle at times as model soundings showing occasional loss of ice in cloud.
Additionally, light freezing mist/drizzle is occurring across portions of east central North Dakota. The boundary layer is rather stagnant with weak flow and plenty of moisture, so freezing mist/drizzle seems likely through tomorrow morning across the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley.
Some mixing of drier air into the area on the backside of a departing low pressure system this evening will allow ceilings to improve into MVFR and VFR range of 2500 to 5000 feet from around 21z through around 09z.
205 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Lingering flurries and patchy freezing drizzle will remain possible through Thursday under cloudy skies. High temperatures will hover right around freezing, with lows in the upper 20s.
Surface observations reveal temperatures in the lower 70s across the Lower Keys and upper 60s across the Middle and Upper Keys.
1241 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure provides mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures today. Drier air from building high pressure will break up clouds late afternoon from east to west; the Ohio River Valley should finally see some sunshine. Some minor snow accumulation of less than an inch is possible, mainly in the higher elevations.
/issued 1101 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ An upper-level trough is currently moving through the area - triggering light scattered showers over the mid-south which can be seen on radar. Light on-and-off scattered showers will persist through the evening hours as the the trough exits the region. High pressure can be seen upstream on surface analysis charts and will build over the region over the next couple of days. Low pressure centered over the Louisiana Gulf Coast is responsible for the rain over the region. As the low continue to move east today more rain is expected to move through the Mid-South.
Went ahead and threw freezing fog into the forecast everywhere except far NW sections of the combined Panhandles, but wouldn't be entirely shocked if areas like Clarendon, Wheeler, and Canadian see a bit more low clouds than fog. As for temperatures, expect thick sky cover to keep lows on the warmer side of guidance tonight though areas with deeper snow pack in the eastern OK Panhandle will probably be a bit chillier than the rest. The snow pack should have less of an impact on temps tomorrow than it has today, but may still keep those far NE areas a bit cooler.
Cloudy with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s are expected Thursday. Weak high pressure over the region Thursday, then next system moves into the central plains.
1229 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Increasing moisture ahead of low pressure approaching from the Gulf will continue to lead to increasing mid/high level clouds aoa 100 at all of the terminals the remainder of afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift associated with these features will lead to increasing cloudiness across the forecast area the remainder of today with shower chances also increasing by late in the afternoon, with the highest rain chances (Pops 50-60%) expected during tonight as this system moves across the area. As the low approaches shower chances will increase across the north-central waters during mid to late afternoon with the showers then spreading south and east across the remainder of the waters tonight as the low moves across the region.
(Thursday through next Wednesday) The next chance for rain will be on Thursday through Thursday night for S/SE Oklahoma as a low amplitude trough passes overhead. Soundings suggest a rather shallow layer of moisture (roughly 925 to 850mb) and couple this with the lift from the trough, a light rain and/or drizzle is possible.
Brief high pressure moves in behind this system overnight and will result in temperatures dropping into the teens.
High pressure will quickly shift east of the region as another coastal low pressure develops southwest of the region.
An upper low pressure system over central Arizona is forecast to push to the southeast tonight and into north-central Mexico on Thursday.
As the low pushes quickly eastward towards the Atlantic coast, rain is expected to come to an end during the overnight hours from west to east. Upper level ridging will build in over the southeastern CONUS by Thursday morning, contributing to a dry, precipitation-free day on Thursday. By Thursday night, the ridge axis will move east of the forecast area, with southwesterly flow returning aloft.
An upper level trough will move south of the area today.
1110 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Cool high pressure across MN and IA will be slow to shift east, which will keep winds on the light side through the day. This may be just enough to keep the lowest few hundred feet from completely saturating and keeping the fog threat to patchy and areas of lower visibility.
1020 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 A low pressure over the coast of Mississippi and Louisiana this morning will drift to the southeast and reach central FL tonight. After a cool morning of temperatures dropping to the lower 50s and upper 40s across east central FL, highs today will reach the lower to mid 70s. This as a weak ridge continues to move away from the FL peninsula and a low pressure pushes towards the local area.
1101 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 An upper-level trough is currently moving through the area - triggering light scattered showers over the mid-south which can be seen on radar. Light on-and-off scattered showers will persist through the evening hours as the the trough exits the region. High pressure can be seen upstream on surface analysis charts and will build over the region over the next couple of days. Low pressure centered over the Louisiana Gulf Coast is responsible for the rain over the region. As the low continue to move east today more rain is expected to move through the Mid-South.
1026 AM MST Wed Jan 29 2020 Increasing and lowering clouds today as a weak disturbance passes through the High PLains and adjacent High Terrain today from west to east. These snow showers will spread east, mainly effecting the High Terrain, along the Laramie Range and west, though areas along the Wyoming side of the Pine Ridge will also receive light snow. Light precipitation is also possible to the east, but may fall as mixed precipitation with afternoon surface temperatures barely above freezing, and the possibility for wet bulbing down to zero. A brief period of clearing will follow with patchy fog possible across the lowest elevations.
Temperatures are quite mild today, generally 3 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time.
Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph will probably not be enough to mix the lower levels enough to discourage fog reformation. An upper level disturbance, along with 10 mph southwest winds ahead of a weak frontal boundary, should help to mix up the lower levels of the troposphere, hopefully leading to an earlier departure of the fog compared to today. An upper level trough will move across the plains Thursday night, but with only shallow moisture, precipitation is not expected.
The low level flow will veer to northeast late this evening and easterly overnight. The lower ceilings/MVFR conditions will reach the western Brush Country around 12Z Thursday.
This afternoon we are very stable with lower dew points arriving and air temps in the mid 40s in NE TX, SE OK and S AR with a warmer range of 50s in LA.
Any snow accumulation will be minor (a half inch or less) and limited to the ridges.
Any snow accumulation will be minor (a half inch or less) and limited to the ridges. Precip chances end by late afternoon as ridging begins.
This low stratus will hang in for the rest of the day and overnight.
Remaining snow is very light and should not cause any impacts due to air temps being 32F or above and road/surface temps being even warmer. Can't completely rule out some light freezing drizzle at times. Much of the area will fall below freezing tonight, so freezing fog would occur where fog becomes dense.
In the lower levels, the sun has taken advantage of some thin spots over northern portions this afternoon allowing mixing to diminish the low clouds. However, lack of a scouring mechanism for the moisture in the lower levels should allow low clouds to quickly reform after sunset as the boundary layer cools. While the expectation is that the low clouds will quickly fill back in, the quandary is whether sufficient surface radiative heat loss will occur for fog to develop first.
955 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure north of the region will move east tonight under an overcast sky.
Some of the higher elevations are seeing some light snow. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 57 41 52 / 10 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 52 40 52 / 20 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 37 53 40 52 / 20 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 49 37 51 / 30 10 10 40.
Thermal profiles will moderate a bit out ahead of the wave/approaching surface occluded front, and looking at highs in the lower to mid 30s across the area.
601 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Current GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis showing a trough of low pressure passing through the region. A ridge of high pressure builds into the area tonight, but don't plan on any clearing as moisture remains trapped under the subsidence inversion. However, if dense fog does form, could see some slick roads in addition to the reduced visibilities, especially bridges and overpasses. Thursday looking cloudy once again between departing high pressure and approaching trough of low pressure from the Northern Plains. Another trough of low pressure moves into the region Thursday night. May have to watch for some patchy freezing drizzle at times as model soundings showing occasional loss of ice in cloud.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and another jump in temperatures by this weekend.
The site that appears to have the best chance of significant rain is TRI, and the increased chance for low level moistening there also makes it have the highest chance of low clouds and fog.
The approaching upper trough moves east of the Rockies tonight and across the central High Plains region early Thursday morning. The high amplitude northerly flow brings in another short wave through on the back side of the main upper trough and across the forecast area Thursday evening. As the main upper trough moves towards the eastern U.
Although we'd prefer to see some sunshine, southerly winds will make up for it and drive temperatures about 5 degrees warmer for Thursday afternoon, resulting in temps just besting seasonal norms.
406 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperatures before a weak disturbance possibly results in light snow/rain southeast of Pittsburgh on Thursday. Overall, lows will end up below normal and be noticeably cooler than observed recently. Any snow accumulation will be minor (a half inch or less) and limited to the ridges.