Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Seeing the light showers from earlier this morning beginning to push off to the north and east as a warm front lifts to the north. PW values today have been just under and inch and model soundings indicate that the low levels are relatively dry. Highs on Thursday will be warmer with values in the upper 60s to low 70s across most locations.
228 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. high pressure will continue to ridge southward into the region tonight. However, a weak s/w will be moving eastward overnight from the lower MS River Valley this afternoon to SC/GA by Thursday. Satellite loop continues to show most of the mid/high clouds to our NW along the NC/SC border and also some clouds beginning to work up from the coast in the low level s/se flow. Overnight temperature guidance has been fairly consistent with temperatures falling into the lower/middle 50s.
345 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 (Tonight and Thursday) Lee trough will continue to bring breezy southwest winds, especially in the Concho Valley and Big County Thursday.
However, the Minnesota North Shore can expect 3 to 6 inches, and possibly up to 8 inches in the higher terrain, because of lake enhancement and terrain effects. There is a very low risk of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in the wake of the snow late this afternoon and this evening when some drier air moves in aloft.
235 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Dry high pressure with seasonable temperatures across the area. Zonal flow aloft with high pressure centered near Apalachicola with easterly low level flow beneath a strong temperatures inversion around 5,000 ft. High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through the weekend allowing temperatures and moisture to moderate, with highs returning into the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
While most of the fog and drizzle has ended, locations across south central missouri will see the low clouds and fog continue through the evening and potentially overnight. Cold front looks to move through Thursday night with scattered shower/storm chances mainly across the eastern half of the area.
Light shower activity is quickly tapering off this afternoon as low pressure at the surface pushes into North Dakota, allowing cool Canadian high pressure to fill in behind it. Thursday weak ridging will build in as upper level low pressure digs to the west, continuing the dry spell.
355 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 A warm front slowly approaches from the south tonight into Thursday morning.
302 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Visible satellite shows the low stratus over eastern Kansas most of the morning and afternoon slowly progressing eastward. With the slow moving cloud cover, high temperatures today (especially in very eastern Kansas) have been lowered slightly into the low 60s to mid- 50s. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out early morning as well as the front passes through as decent vertical motion at the low levels is seen, although have kept this mention out of the forecast for now as coverage would be sporadic with how shallow the saturated layer looks at this time.
Upper level analysis places a broad trough over the central United States, with a compact wave zipping through our area which is leading to an area of light rain and snow now sliding mainly through central North Dakota from west to east. For Thursday, weak ridge passes on over bringing a relatively quiet day to most locations.
218 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Warm frontal boundary has moved north of I-30, at the same time that overrunning rains are about to move east of the area.
Accumulating snow thus far has been occurring mainly across northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide where a colder Canadian cold front is stalled. By tomorrow morning, snowfall is expected to really ramp up across northwest Montana as a wave of moisture lifts over the top of the stalled Canadian cold front. This will produce favorable conditions for a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snowfall, generally along the Highway 200 corridor and northward.
Less wind expected on Thu all areas as winds aloft slowly weaken, while surface cold front backs into the eastern plains by afternoon.
547 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Warm frontal boundary has moved north of I-30, and at the same time overrunning rains are about to move east of the area. A Lake Wind Advisory may be required for western portions of the cwa tomorrow aftn with aftn temps ramping up to the lower to possible middle 80s.
317 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a broad upper trof prevailing across the CONUS. unorganized low pressure was situated over WY with attendant warm front extending through NE into northern MO.
The highest potential for flash flooding would be across Acadia, Lafayette, Vermilion, and Upper St.
The tail end of a trough will bring possible light showers to the northern fringes of the west side tonight.
150 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain is expected today and tonight with a warm front.
319 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 A warm front has lifted into Kentucky and Missouri resulting in strengthening southerly flow across the Midsouth. Despite widespread cloud cover, strong warm advection will keep temperatures trending warmer tomorrow.
Surface analysis has low pressure in the high plains. Upper level flow should remain zonal into the weekend with the upper level low now off the coast of California slowly shearing out in pieces across the southern half of the U.
524 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain will continue through the night as a warm front lifts north over the area.
Otherwise, dry and mild high pressure will extend across the area through the end of the week. Accordingly, humidities will be a bit higher tomorrow as dew points climb to the mid and even upper 50s to complement highs climbing to the low to mid 70s.
309 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain will develop tonight along a warm front traveling to Northern Ohio. Expect mainly dry weather and warmer temperatures Thursday when the front is forecast to stay near Lake Erie. Additional showers will accompany a cold front Thursday night.
This will continue to bring high winds to the higher elevations through the evening hours. The High Wind Warning will continue until midnight but could be ended earlier if speeds drop below threshold. Models have a weak back door cold front entering the eastern plains by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures for Thursday will be slightly cooler given the lack of warming from downsloping and the weak frontal passage with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
As a warm front lifts into the area, rain and showers will move in early this evening and will continue through the overnight hours. If precip does occur, it will be a rain/snow mix given sub- freezing wet bulbs but no accumulation or impacts are expected.
Cold rain showers continue to spread east-northeast across the area north of a surface warm front. Highs still look good to reach the 50s and even the low/mid 60s in southern KY. Expect a steady cold rain for the rest of the day with temps on the rise as a warm front lifts north through the region. In the warmer airmass, highs will rebound into the upper 60s/lower 70s.
A weak cold front will move across far northwest Oklahoma early Thursday morning and will continue south during the afternoon and early evening.
400 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 19z sfc analysis shows a warm front bisecting the JKL CWA from southwest to northeast. They all depict a broad trough over the northern tier of the nation with various weak waves of energy moving through the southern Ohio Valley in southwest flow. Late in the period, more diffluence aloft will set up over eastern Kentucky between the trough to our north and ridging to the southwest.
313 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 The evening forecast will be dominated by a persistent low level southerly flow into central Illinois, as a warm frontal circulation develops to our northwest, centered from across NW Missouri and into NW Illinois. There appears to be increasing evidence in the low level thermal and moisture profiles that low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle will be possible overnight tonight, as synoptic scale lift persists in the warm advection flows. Thursday night will see ongoing showers east of I-55, as a surface wave progresses to the NE along the warm front, and exits into Indiana.
A broad upper trof over much of the central conus will continue to weaken or deamplify through Thu afternoon with still several embedded short wave impulses tracking eastward mostly over the central part of the country. As for temps will continue to lean close to the cooler mos guidance for lows tonight though the current blended guidance looks to be closer to the current mos compared to the last couple of nights. With some sun expected for most areas by Thu afternoon have opted to lean close to the higher mos values for highs tomorrow going about a degree above in some locations.
Breezy conditions are possible tonight and tomorrow, then expect lighter winds as a high pressures develops in northern Mexico. A surface lee trough in the central plains has tightened the pressure gradient in our region. This feature is coupled with an upper level disturbance aloft which is contributing to the high clouds observed today. The southwest flow remains in place as an upper high pressure develops in northern Mexico. Subtropical Pacific moisture will be advected along the edges of this high pressure. Right at the end of the forecast period both the GFS and the ECMWF show a backdoor cold front moving in, next Wednesday to Thursday.
These northerly winds will help to keep their high temperatures in the lower 70s while the rest of the area aims for the 80 degree mark.
251 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. high pressure will continue to ridge southward into the region tonight. However, a weak s/w will be moving eastward overnight from the lower MS River Valley this afternoon to SC/GA by Thursday. Satellite loop continues to show most of the mid/high clouds to our NW along the NC/SC border and also some clouds beginning to work up from the coast in the low level s/se flow. Overnight temperature guidance has been fairly consistent with temperatures falling into the lower/middle 50s. Temps will continue above normal, especially during the afternoon hours, where highs will be 10 degrees or so warmer than usual for early November.
342 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
This low has been associated earlier with 1-2 inches of snow accumulation upstream thru SE Saskatchewan and the idea of the forecast is that 1-2 inches of snow will remain possible as it moves through area along the International border. Generally dry but cloudy on Thursday with highs a few degrees either side of freezing.
For late tonight and Thursday morning, many of the meso models are showing that a warm front will move north into the area.
High pressure NE of forecast area will maintain easterly surface flow thru Thursday.
The highest wind gusts could exceed 40 KTS to the east of the northern mountains and along the I-40 corridor east of the mountains into the east central plains.
/issued 503 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ Hard Freeze conditions set up overnight with lows mainly in into the lower teens, and some single digit readings across AR/OK portions of area. Near perfect radiation cooling conditions with clear skies and calm winds will send temps back into the lower to middle teens areawide, as dewpoints in single digits could even mix down a few more degrees this aftn. As the high pressure begins to migrate east later this week, temperatures will begin to rebound in warm air advection.
530 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Well below normal temperatures and dry conditions can be expected today with warmer temperatures later this week and into the weekend as high pressure remains in control.
526 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Data analysis early this morning has a ridge of high pressure moving slowly east across the region while low pressure tracks across southern Canada. A few altocumulus/patches of cirrus associated with the low were passing across areas north of I-94, otherwise it was mostly clear and very cold across the area.
Today Through Thursday Night Arctic high pressure will build over Arkansas from the northwest today. The high will be over the region this afternoon and tonight, and will drift toward the central Gulf Coast on Thursday. Under the high, very cold/dry air will be in place. By rebound, it is meant that most of the region will finally climb above freezing.
218 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2018 A high pressure ridge aloft will keep our weather fair and mild through Thursday with above average temperatures.
312 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Weak high pressure aloft will keep the region dry today into tonight, as increasing westerly winds help warm temperatures above normal through Thursday.
Otherwise, latest water vapor imagery showing broad upper trough oriented along the Ohio River Valley this hour. At the surface, have a 1044 mb high pressure centered over the Central Plains, with a ridge axis over the region. Ridging moves into the Midwest to close out the work week, promising a continued warming.
The lower ceiling should dissipate tonight in much of the valley, but may hang around at tri through the overnight hours.
645 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather into the weekend.
412 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Upper ridge will continue to dominate the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to rise above the freezing mark around noon or short after. The area with the biggest warmup is expected to be the Rio Grande Plains with temperatures reaching the lower 40s by mid-afternoon. The wintry mix is expected to begin with very light sleet and freezing rain and then transitioning to very light freezing rain and light snow/flurries before the activity comes to an end. However, bridges and overpasses could become slippery at times. Temperatures should rebound to the low to mid 40s on Thursday afternoon as southerly winds return across all of south central Texas.
708 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Low pressure near Hudson Bay will slide southeast into Quebec by tonight. Meanwhile high pressure over the Ohio Valley will sink south towards the Gulf Coast. A prolonged period of southwest flow along with an upper level ridge building across the eastern United States will lead to a gradual warming trend into this weekend. Winds are generally light (3-8 mph) with high pressure over the Ohio Valley and winds may drop off a little more as we head towards dawn. After a cool start to the day, went with a blend of MAV/MET guidance for highs today, generally in the lower 20s west to upper teens east. Fortunately southwest winds will increase this evening and lows will only drop back into the lower teens.
631 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure continues to exit the northern plains this morning. Warm front will move across the forecast area today bringing much warmer temperatures to the entire forecast area. Highlights in the short term period include gusty westerly winds and warmer conditions. This, in conjunction with melting and refreezing, may possibly result in icy roads and hazardous travel late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
A strong inversion is also noted around 960mb which is indicative of strong cold air advection taking place in the low levels of the atmosphere.
A strong arctic airmass will remain across S TX today with freezing temps continuing through late morning and highs only reaching the mid 30s to around 40 this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Freezing temps are expected again tonight, however, not quite as cold nor as long of a duration. The combination of the freezing temps and light precip may lead to a brief period of a mix of light rain or light freezing rain Thu morning. Slightly warmer conditions are expected Thu with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
911 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Radar imagery indicates light snow continuing across northeast Tennessee along the foothills and in the higher elevations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 12 41 20 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 20 9 37 17 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 22 8 39 17 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 8 37 13 / 20 0 0 0 TN.
335 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure will rebuild over the area and keep mild temperatures and dry conditions across the region through Thursday -- aside from persistent low clouds and fog in the San Joaquin Valley.
An upper trough continues to rotate east of the forecast area per the 08Z water vapor imagery. This has allowed an upper ridge to move into the plains while a closed upper low remained well off the west coast. This is because the high has pushed all the way into northern Mexico and should keep the gulf closed off. Forecast soundings show little if any mixing today and as a result tend to keep highs in the lower and mid 20s. However think sunny skies and a southwesterly wind will help bump highs a little warmer than this into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
There is a slight chc of light rain across CRP and a mix of light rain and light freezing rain across ALI briefly toward early Thu morning. A strong arctic airmass will remain across S TX today with freezing temps continuing through late morning and highs only reaching the mid 30s to around 40 this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Freezing temps are expected again tonight, however, not quite as cold nor as long of a duration. The combination of the freezing temps and light precip may lead to a brief period of a mix of light rain or light freezing rain Thu morning. Slightly warmer conditions are expected Thu with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
659 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Changed freezing rain to freezing drizzle for northern MN. Warmer today with warmer air moving in aloft. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over southern ALTA. Trough will move across southern MAN and will produce light snow/freezing rain mainly over northern MN for tonight.
Temperatures will be in the lower 20s, but with the winds, wind chills will keep values in the single digits this afternoon. A northwest upper flow with an upper ridge moving across Wisconsin this evening. Low pressure to our north and high pressure to the south, puts us squarely in a tight pressure gradient. Temperatures will be in the lower to 20s, but with the winds, wind chills will keep values in the single digits this afternoon.
414 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Overnight water vapor imagery showed a upper trough axis from the eastern Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley. A upper ridge dominated much of the western CONUS. Skies were clear with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. There is good model/ensemble consensus progging the upper ridge to gradually translate east across the Rockies into the Great Plains.
643 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Plains this morning will build into the Tennessee Valley. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend.
419 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Current surface map shows warm front moving into eastern Montana/eastern Wyoming. Warm front continues to move east today, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s for much of the forecast area.
940 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Low pressure near Hudson Bay will slide southeast into Quebec by tonight. Meanwhile high pressure over the Ohio Valley will sink south towards the Gulf Coast. A prolonged period of southwest flow along with an upper level ridge building across the eastern United States will lead to a gradual warming trend into this weekend. Winds are generally light (3-8 mph) with high pressure over the Ohio Valley and winds may drop off a little more as we head towards dawn. After a cool start to the day, went with a blend of MAV/MET guidance for highs today, generally in the lower 20s west to upper teens east. Fortunately southwest winds will increase this evening and lows will only drop back into the lower teens.
WAA will not be overly strong today and despite expecting ample sun today, have trended twd the cooler guidance given the snow cover. Still, with MOS being too warm recently, possibly due to climo, have trended twd the cooler guidance.
437 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Shallow inversion over the region with very warm air aloft creating large temperature differences between ridges and valleys this morning. Ridge rebounds behind the wave, keeping warm air across the state but also increasing the moisture streaming across the divide from the trof in the east Pacific. Disturbance ejecting out of the Pacific trof will knock down the ridge and drop a cold front across the state late on Thursday. Precipitation chances not high but type could be tricky as the airmass cools, so would expect a transition from rain (including freezing rain) through sleet to snow to be possible Thursday night.
609 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure passes south of the area later today through Thursday.
A warm front will clip the area today followed by a cold front tonight.
Will continue with the Special Weather Statement highlighting drifting snow and possible icy conditions late this afternoon through Thursday morning as road temperatures rise above freezing, then fall below freezing. High pressure continues to exit the northern plains this morning. Warm front will move across the forecast area today bringing much warmer temperatures to the entire forecast area. Highlights in the short term period include gusty westerly winds and warmer conditions. This, in conjunction with melting and refreezing, may possibly result in icy roads and hazardous travel late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Since the the light pcpn is lingering near the Cameron County with temps across the region still holding near or just below the freezing mark will allow the Winter Weather Advisory to continue until 10 am for Willacy and Cameron Counties in case any additional icing occurs from the potential freezing drizzle. This will push temps down close to or just below the freezing mark across much of the region and anticipate a Freeze watch/warning may be needed for much of the region later this morning/afternoon. Although some drier air has moved into the region from the west and northwest shutting down the pcpn for the moment, the combination of a 500 mb closed low to our northwest and the lingering surface troffing near the lower TX coastline will likely maintain the pcpn chcs through Thurs.
TFJ Shallow inversion over the region with very warm air aloft creating large temperature differences between ridges and valleys this morning. Ridge rebounds behind the wave, keeping warm air across the state but also increasing the moisture streaming across the divide from the trof in the east Pacific. Disturbance ejecting out of the Pacific trof will knock down the ridge and drop a cold front across the state late on Thursday. Precipitation chances not high but type could be tricky as the airmass cools, so would expect a transition from rain (including freezing rain) through sleet to snow to be possible Thursday night.
Areas of valley fog this morning, locally dense in the Treasure Valley, otherwise mild and generally dry today as a weak warm front passes through. Later Thursday the storm's cold front will move inland with widespread rain and high-mountain snow in eastern Oregon and the west central Idaho Mountains. The cold front will bring an end to the warm weather.
So, in spite of increased cloud cover and precipitation, the temperatures will continue either about the same or even warmer than today's high temperatures. And now the cold front does not get here until late Fri night, so there is more rain at higher elevations than previous expectations.