Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry and warmer weather mid-week, then a pattern change possible by the end of the week. Satellite imagery shows the upper trough now south of Sacramento forming a closed low over central California.
SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA WHERE NO SNOW COVER WILL COMBINE SUNNY SKIES. RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
600 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015 BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS WILL END THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH AND EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FIELD. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THEN CURRENT READINGS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHTS READINGS AS WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR SKIES.
BUT COOLER AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST NEVADA. BUT COOLER AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
927 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
510 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AN ELEVATED ICING DANGER WILL EXIST AS A SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND KAUS JUST AFTER TAKE OFF TO NEAR 3,000 TO 4,000 FT FROM 23/09Z THRU 24/12Z.
713 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER TO NEAR ASHEVILLE THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM STEPHENVILLE TO COMANCHE TO SAN ANGELO. OUR TIMING OF FREEZING TEMPS REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. AN ELEVATED ICING DANGER WILL EXIST AS A SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND KAUS JUST AFTER TAKE OFF TO NEAR 3,000 TO 4,000 FT FROM 23/09Z THRU 24/12Z.
517 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015 00Z TAF issuance MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail along with periods of light freezing rain and sleet. WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft over the region. However, IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of the dendritic growth zones. Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where they should remain blo freezing. Thus, even though precip is expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy surfaces will linger.
/ISSUED 306 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/ 1045 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG RIDGING DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED TO BE THE NORM ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND.
958 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WAS NOSING INTO NORTHERN SASK/NORTHERN ALTA WITH A SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE TO THE EAST. SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO MAN/WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MON. RAISED THE LOW A TAD OVER THE EAST AND LOWERED A TAD IN THE WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE HEART OF THE INTERIOR AND HAVING MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ATOP COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
RAISED THE LOW A TAD OVER THE EAST AND LOWERED A TAD IN THE WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA.
641 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH AND EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FIELD. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THEN CURRENT READINGS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHTS READINGS AS WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR SKIES.
The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a slow-moving cold front from Atlanta, through Birmingham, to Lake Charles, with a weak 1019 mb frontal wave near Greenville, AL. The cold front will reach the Tallahassee area by around daybreak, as it transitions into an anafront (with most of the rain behind the cold front). Areas of dense fog are likely overnight, mainly south of the approaching cold front.
1045 MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG RIDGING DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
901 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 UPDATE A NORTHERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
946 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HRRR SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. LOW TEMPS WILL REACH DOWN INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
925 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH WE GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION.
LATE MONDAY A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AN UPPER LOW IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS NORTHERN ONTARIO. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
Sustained north winds ahead of the high will promote wind chills in the -10 to -20 degree range, so have continued the wind chill advisory for areas that should see a period of -15 to -20 early Monday morning.
WHILE THE RIDGES LIKEWISE WILL DO BETTER AS UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MOISTURE ERODES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A SMALL BONUS IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LATEST 18Z MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THE WIND AND PRECLUDE A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS MONDAY EVENING FALLS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
641 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA TONIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE THE WARMER AIR TO REACH THE EASTERN CWA WHERE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES. A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WARMER AIRMASS SETTLING IN. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC/BAY OF ALASKA AND LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO FREQUENT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FOLLOWED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS WILL END THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH AND EAST-NORTHEAST WIND FIELD. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THEN CURRENT READINGS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHTS READINGS AS WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR SKIES.
939 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AS A VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WILL BE LETTING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
Yesterday's cold front now lies across central Florida and will continue to slide off to the southeast through the period. Between light cold air advection behind yesterday's front and a low level inversion, temperatures will only peak in the mid 50s today and overnight, temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s.
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN US WITH CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD MIXING FROM 850 MB AND REALIZE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.
Winds will become westerly tomorrow mid-morning then become elevated and gusty out of the northwest as a cold front moves through the area around 18z Saturday. /ISSUED 318 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2015/ Southwest winds will become more established across the region today as surface lee troughing strengthens and extends south through eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Meanwhile, an upper trough currently entering the Pac NW will dive SE through the Central Plains Saturday, sending a dry cold front through the CWA Saturday night.
Only exceptions are the Helena and Centennial Valley areas, where cold air remains trapped so left temperatures as is, and in the Bozeman Valley area, where winds have mixed down and caused about a 10 degree rise in the high for today. Have therefore added mention of blowing snow to the Rocky Mountain Front, and to the High Wind Warning statement for that area. With temperatures remaining below freezing in the Helena area today, have also added mention for the potential of freezing drizzle, although the likelihood for significant precipitation there is low.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AS A SFC TROF APPROACHED FROM THE DAKOTAS. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES HAD YET DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING. A S/W TROF OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THIS EVG. SO HAVE MENTIONED OCNL FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER S/W TROF ARRIVES. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SE.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT THEN THE NEXT WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
APPROACHING TROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUE TO DEPICT ROBUST LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES. THE CENTER OF STRONGER YET FLATTENING MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 81 WEST. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A NEAR 1028 MB RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THE SURFACE SOMETIME BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MORE SUN TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH THIS COLD FRONT BUT THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE WILL BE UP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THE TEMP FORECAST SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
These strong southerly winds will bring unseasonably warm air lifting our high temps into the lower 50s! A cold front and upper trough will approach the area Sat night bringing light rain to the region. However, we don't expect any travel impacts from this light mix as temps will be above freezing through sunrise. Low temps will end up in the lower 30s to around 40 Sat night into Sun morning.
WENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE HIGHEST GUIDANCE. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1159 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING ONLY A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMER TOMORROW. CONTINUED BENIGN PATTERN IN SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN CANADA/LWR GRTLKS TROF ROTATING THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH PROVIDING BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO WRN GRTLKS BY F36. THOUGH RELAXATION OF THERMAL ADVECTION TO SLOW BY LATE AFTN WITH APPROACH OF RIDGE/COL. A SHARPENING/COOLER 925MB THERMAL GRADIENT THROUGH SRN LWR MI TO SWRN CWA SUGGEST MUCH SMALLER RISES.
THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS DRT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PASSING FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A DOWNSLOPING WIND FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH ENERGY IN TWO PARTS. THE WEAK LIFT OF 1-3UB/S WILL BE LOCATED A BIT INTO THE LOWER BASED SATURATED LAYER FOR DZ/FZDZ POTENTIAL NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT OF HIGHER AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES WOULD TEND TO ADVECT THAT FOG NORTH OR DIMINISH IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT INTO ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN U. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN EASTERLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY 12-16 KTS ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TERMINALS MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KACT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT A LEE-SIDE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE HEELS OF THE SMALLER SYSTEM. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
350 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE AREA A VERY COLD NIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING SHSN ALONG THE RIDGES.
315 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA CLEAR AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG IN THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND SIDED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE ON THIS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARMER AIR MASS FOR SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING IN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MET MUCH LOWER. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR JUST OFF THE SFC CONTRIBUTING TO A RAPID RISE IN TEMPS /TO NEAR 50/ AFTER A SUBFREEZING START TO THE MORNING.
THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT COOLER TEMPS TODAY HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND MN. AMPLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 270-280K THETA SFCS COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER DRYING FROM A PASSING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INHIBIT ICE FORMATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SE THROUGH SATURDAY. NAM SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SUN THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT.
1236 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
317 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEEPENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY BENEATH A PERTURBED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FORCING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 1026 mb high pressure over central Ontario and ridging southward across the Ohio & TN river valleys will slip off to the east and continue fair wx over IL tonight.
202 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BITTER COLD AND BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME.
250 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN 850MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM A LOW NEAR KFSD INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE AN INITIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR VERY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND OR IN THE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS.
147 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
FREEZING FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKES AND RIVERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO MOTORISTS CROSSING BRIDGES IN THE LATE NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SLIPPERY SURFACES DUE TO ICE.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FETCH SHIFTS TO HAVING A SOUTHERN COMPONENT LATE SATURDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
High pressure at the surface will keep the region dry through Saturday. An upper level disturbance diving southeast out of the northern plains will push a cold front across the region Saturday night. In the wake of the front, high pressure will once regain control and keep the region dry through the rest of the short term period.
A decent southerly flow at the surface will persist thru tonight and will make sites that drop below freezing in the minority, with most expected to bottom out in the mid 30s. Either way, the low- level jet will translate to gusty winds late Saturday morning.
THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION.
323 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
218 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT STALLS IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS WINDS NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESSIVELY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
252 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
1210 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
1157 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRESENT PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS AS THE TOP LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE ICE IN THE CLOUDS BUT THE SEPARATION FROM THE LOWER SATURATED LAYER WILL BE TOO FAR TO ALLOW A SEEDER/FEEDER MECHANISM TO WORK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOWER SATURATED LAYER WITHOUT ICE MAKING FREEZING DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAVING FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED WITH BOTH OF THESE WAVES. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.