Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, long wave trough remains over the Northern Plains region with strong Arctic high pressure across North Dakota. Will also see breezy southerly winds during the day Thursday becoming out of the northwest Thursday night behind an associated cold front. Another area of high pressure building south may also result in some more light snow/flurries west into south central late Thu night into Friday morning.
254 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 A very large upper trough was centered over the Northern Plains into the Southern Rockies this morning, with very cold air in the boundary layer extending from the central Plains into west Texas (modeled 850 hPa temps in the -15 to -20 C range). The base of the through will be a favored region for additional light snows this morning, and run after run of the most recent HRRR would keep that generally to our south in the panhandles and western Oklahoma as the trough after sunrise. As the trough exits Today, sunny sky will develop over the west, spreading east by late afternoon. By the overnight, low temperatures should reach the low single digits, positive or negative.
A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow has been occurring northwest of this boundary and rain southeast of the boundary. There will be a range of temperatures overnight with lows ranging from around 20 northwest of Dayton to middle 30s across portions of the lower Scioto Valley and into northeastern kentucky. Main changes to forecast are to increase snowfall values further south and decreased freezing rain slightly in a few areas. Due to the combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain kept winter weather warning headlines in place. High pressure will build into the region through the weekend, providing for dry but cold conditions.
An elevated freezing line close to 850-mb was located southeast of Henryetta to Bentonville. Further to the south across far Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas and the higher terrain of Madison co. freezing rain with some sleet mixed in was common. The surface freezing line was located from Hugo to Fort Smith. the surface/elevated freezing lines will continue to slowly move southeast which will shift the snow/sleet into Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas while snow continues across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. amounts fall off pretty quickly as freezing rain and sleet become more common. freezing rain looks to remain common through much of the night with the greater potential across Choctaw.
The freezing line is now moving into our far northwestern sections. Though the progress of the freezing line is expected to slow down, it does appear likely that a good chunk of the upcoming precip will occur with sfc temps near or just below freezing across the warning area. Meanwhile, the cold front will continue to slowly work southward through the taf period. At CKV, look for some freezing rain to begin between 15Z and 18Z, with the frozen precip becoming prevalent aft 18Z.
Winds may not shut off like we sometimes see at sunset given the amount of cold air advection occuring behind the exiting trough, however the pressure gradient will slacken through the night so still will see decreasing winds.
This weekend will be frequented with precipitation chances as upper level jet streaks and troughs dive out of Canada. The initial low pressure center enters the forecast area Friday morning on the nose of a 150 northerly jet streak. However, model soundings contain the lowest 200mb of the temperature profile within the dendritic growth zone, indicating possible increased snow to liquid ratios.
With the winds delayed a bit longer than expected this evening, temperatures have been slightly cooler than expected. High pressure west of the divide will strengthen overnight tonight, which will contrast with a deepening lee trough east of the Rocky Mountain Front. Blowing snow will be possible once again, though this go around has the potential to be limited by how much snow is still blowable after the winds tonight, and temperatures should be rising above freezing by the mid afternoon, which will also help to limit the blowing snow potential during the afternoon.
The freezing line is now moving into our far northwestern sections. Though the progress of the freezing line is expected to slow down, it does appear likely that a good chunk of the upcoming precip will occur with sfc temps near or just below freezing across the warning area. Meanwhile, the cold front will continue to slowly work southward through the taf period. At CKV, look for some freezing rain to begin between 15Z and 18Z, with the frozen precip becoming prevalent aft 18Z. Elsewhere, look for the rain to change to freezing rain at BNA and MQY just aft 00Z.
The highest amounts are expected near or just to the east-southeast of I-44. Meteorological analysis: Ahead of an open wave trough, a strong frontogenetic band of precipitation has developed from Wichita Falls, to Lawton, and to Oklahoma City. A remnant warm nose has resulted in mixed precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) southeast of I-44 and south of I-40. There are two key factors that will affect the location of the highest snowfall: 1) the precipitation type/transition zone and 2) a northwest to southeast precipitation gradient that will occur due to drier air aloft. This corridor for overlap is forecast to be near or just east-southeast of I-44, which is where the highest snowfall totals are forecast. However, as the trough approaches the Southern Plains on Thursday, ascent ahead of the wave will result in additional snowfall late morning/early afternoon.
1025 PM MST Wed Feb 2 2022 The mid-level trough axis extended from northwest Colorado across southeast Utah early this afternoon according model analyses. Showers diminish later tonight as the trough finally shifts east of the Continental Divide, but scattered showers are expected to continue in the higher terrain southeast of Pagosa Springs through morning. A weak disturbance moving down the backside of the exiting trough may result in some isolated showers over that area during the afternoon, but otherwise, mostly sunny skies and unseasonably cold temperatures are expected across the region. Persistent northwest flow on the leading edge of high pressure planted over the western U.
North-northwest flow remains firmly in place across the region as we reside on the backside of a northeast to southwest oriented trough axis that extends from the Dakotas to the four- corners. A sharp upper trough is slowly meandering eastward this afternoon.
1033 PM MST Wed Feb 2 2022 Large upper trough covers the CONUS, with its axis currently over the Rockies. At the surface, cold high pressure has slid into the Dakotas.
1151 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 Ridging will continue to hold over the local area and limit shower activity through the end of the work-week. The governing high pressure cell will slowly weaken and shift eastward, leading to diminishing breezes starting Thursday night. Fresh to strong easterly breezes will persist tonight across Florida Keys coastal waters, as a sprawling high pressure cell evolves slowly over the eastern United States and adjacent western North Atlantic Ocean.
Windy and cold conditions expected behind a departing cold front for much of the area. Showers are diminishing from northwest to southeast as drier boundary later air pushes south, that coupled with an exiting trough axis, will bring showers to an end this evening over southern Apache County. Continued marginally unstable air, northerly flow and a follow-up s/wv on Thursday, will keep a a threat for flurries over the higher elevations of the White Mtns, but any organized or accumulating snow bands will end this evening.
Long-wave ridging continues over the western Atlantic waters, allowing for the continuation of breezy east/southeasterly flow over the region, with the higher wind speeds being observed along the east coast (sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph). H500 ridging will gradually weaken by tomorrow, as a pronounced jet streak dips equatorward into the southeastern United States. Temperatures will hover around seasonable values, and possibly a bit warmer than normal over southwest Florida; maximum temperatures in the upper 70s can be expected for the eastern half of the region, while temperatures may exceed 80F over portions of southwest Florida.
Baker Eastern extent of upper longwave trough having draped across nearly the entire east half of the CONUS will allow for continued moisture advection of the Gulf from the SW fetch aloft. A bit more certainty exists in the pop trends later Thursday As the trough and broad moisture axis slowly progresses eastward and should see pops increasing gradually from the north and west thru the day and then through overnight with translated sfc cold front passage. Picking up on Friday morning with cold front pushing through portions of central Georgia and the rest of the SE US.
339 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 This morning's surface analysis shows a cold front positioned across northern Louisiana and eastern Texas; the boundary will cause severe weather and winter weather across most of the Midwest, east Texas, and northern areas of of Louisiana today. Strong anticyclonic flow will slowly weaken and shift east; breezes will gradually diminish tonight into Friday as the high slides into the western Atlantic Ocean.
The main story for tonight into Fri will be the arctic cold, over the top of the fresh snow cover, as the arctic high pressure area settles over the plains. Latest guidance numbers are coming in slightly warmer, but prefer to keep min temperatures in the 25th percentile range, which is slightly below current guidance.
247 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 (Issued 248 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022) Today and Tonight: Strong high pressure over western Minnesota will slowly push east today and tonight. As the high continues east tonight, winds take on a more northeasterly direction, and eventually begin to weaken. Away from the lake, dry weather will continue, with skies clearing later today as the high approaches.
A fairly weak wave on the backside of the main trough will drop southeastward over the Four Corners this afternoon.
This will keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer than expected in those areas. The low clouds are slowing dissipating and should not last long after sunrise. The cloudiness has kept temperatures warmer than expected in many areas and humidities are currently in the 70 to 90 percent range. The upper trough will continue to slowly move eastward today. Expect high temperatures in the teens and lower 20s across the plains and single digits and teens in the high country. Northeast Colorado will stay dry and mostly clear through tonight, with ridging and an increasing northerly flow aloft.
This high will continue to slide eastward through the day, with winds turning southerly and increasing by this evening. The aforementioned southerly shift in winds will be short lived as a weak trough pushes through northern Minnesota early tomorrow morning.
125 AM PST Thu Feb 3 2022 Cold mornings with freezing temperatures are likely in the valley through Friday. Lows will bottom out below freezing in many Central Valley locations; the best chance will be for this morning. Blended guidance shows a marked decrease in the probability for freezing temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley for Friday morning.
Dry and colder to end the week with morning lows well below freezing for much of SE AZ. High pressure will bring a gradual warming trend over the weekend.
High pressure over the northern Plains will drift east towards the western Great Lakes today, turning low level winds to the northeast over Lake Michigan; allowing for some lake effect snow bands to impact the lakeshore counties later this afternoon and into tonight. Highs on Friday will be a bit warmer, but still below normal; ranging from around 10 across north-central Wisconsin, to the middle to upper teens across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.
330 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 Today will be the coldest day of the forecast period with highs from around 20 to the lower 20s.
Some concern that Lima could briefly mix with freezing rain or sleet given thermal profiles/BUFKIT there and freezing rain not too far to the southeast.
348 AM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Broad upper trough across much of the CONUS is centered over the northern Plains south to NM. Canadian high pressure is pushing into the upper Midwest, with return flow setting up across the CWA. Southerly flow will advect in warmer air, with highs reaching the 20s to lower 30s. Upper ridging will build in Friday, as temperatures warm into the 30s to lower 40s.
The main 500mb trough was still located across Colorado and New Mexico. As far as tonight's additional snowfall, if it indeed makes it across the area, then the high SLR's of 15:1 could result in an additional half to one inch of snowfall, mainly south of Interstate 44.
IFR conditions with strong, gusty north winds in the wake of a recent cold front. /issued 337 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A strong cold front will power through to the coast in the next few hours.
Southerly winds will become breezy west of the James River during the afternoon hours as slightly stronger winds into the low 20s are mixed down. The low will drag a cold front through the CWA Friday morning, cooling low temperatures down to teens along the Mo River and single to negative single digits elsewhere.
Winds decrease later this evening with a weakening surface pressure gradient and subtle ridging aloft. One question left to resolve with the higher winds on Friday is the continuing potential for blowing snow. In areas where warmer temperatures are realized today, the blowing snow potential may be mitigated by scouring and melting.
check! These shallow cold air masses are always fun to try and predict what they are going to do, while at the same time doing a good job of keeping our forecast expectations in check! Anyway, surprised to see the freezing rain transition quickly to sleet across central Arkansas this morning but expect the associated impacts from this system to be slightly less severe locally given the frozen precip type rather than FZRA. This won't be the case everywhere, with areas south and east of the metro likely to see a period of freezing rain throughout the day. In the wake of this system moving through today, as the H500 trough swings across the area, another round of light to perhaps moderate snow is possible across mainly northern Arkansas through the morning hours Friday.
This will keep highs in the 20s today even with the warmer flow. Skies clear through the day, with subsidence anticipated behind the departing upper low. The aforementioned warm advection today should help keep lows slightly warmer tonight, with lows in the single digits. H85 temps will soar back to above freezing and will help highs return to near/above freezing as well with anticipated diurnal mixing.
321 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 Summary: It will be a very cold start to the period with high pressure over the Northland.
427 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 High pressure will ridge across the area from the Atlantic through the end of the week. A cold front will settle into the area Friday night, with some pre-frontal showers pushing into the north Friday afternoon.
Low pressure in the upper levels moving southward west of the coast today will continue to push clouds into the area this morning. Clear skies tonight into Friday morning are likely to lead to IFR and LIFR low clouds and fog across the lower valleys of Coos, Douglas, and Josephine counties late tonight into Friday morning.
Through 1 to 2 AM, light snow continued to develop and push northward of the Ozark Plateau and southeast Kansas in response to the trough over the southern plains finally lifting north. Highs on Friday will struggle as well, remaining below freezing, reaching the upper 20s to 30 across the area.
At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlc will continue to drift slowly seaward as associated ridge axis reaches back southwest toward the central FL peninsula. A cold frontal boundary will press southeast and into the FL Panhandle by sunrise Fri morning. An elongated mid-level ridge over FL begins to retreat southward as a large upper trough moves into the Southeast U. Dry conditions expected for Friday with the surface Atlantic ridge axis across the Treasure Coast producing south to southwest winds. Above normal afternoon temps in the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. A sea breeze is likely to develop along the Space and Treasure Coasts bringing cooler temps and southeast winds by mid afternoon. Dry conditions over the local waters as the axis of the Atlantic ridge will be over the Treasure Coast.
and that would mean more sleet than freezing rain for some portions of the region. Bumped up the totals a little over the area as the freezing line moved in earlier and is starting to stall over the Memphis area. Wind chills at daybreak Friday will range from the upper single digits over the MO bootheel, to the mid teens in Memphis, to the lower 20s in northeast MS. Regarding melting, sun should break out across the northwest portions of the region Friday, but temps will struggle to get above freezing.
A persistent ridge over the eastern Pacific will maintain a dry pattern across Utah for the next seven days.
The atmosphere has stabilized enough for the the low clouds to persist at North Bend for most of the night, with ceilings improving to MVFR towards 10z.
756 AM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Updated forecast to cancel the freezing fog advisory as observations have shown improvement in most locations.
Large swatch of high pressure builds over Idaho tomorrow, which will bring about more gap winds around Livingston, and confidence is high to see winds gusting above 58 mph throughout Friday.
A very large upper trough was centered over the Northern Plains into the Southern Rockies this morning, with very cold air in the boundary layer extending from the central Plains into west Texas (modeled 850 hPa temps in the -15 to -20 C range). The base of the through will be a favored region for additional light snows this morning, and run after run of the most recent HRRR would keep that generally to our south in the panhandles and western Oklahoma as the trough after sunrise. As the trough exits Today, sunny sky will develop over the west, spreading east by late afternoon. By the overnight, low temperatures should reach the low single digits, positive or negative.
- Roadways may be slick due to the refreezing slush and snow. Early this morning a positive tilt upper level trough extended from Ontario, Canada southwest across the upper Midwest into the southern high Plains. The southern stream section of the upper trough was more amplified and the stronger ascent has lead to the development of a moderate snow band that extended from northeast OK, northeast across southeast KS, and into southwest and central MO. The southern section of the H5 trough will continue to dig more to the southeast and begin to shear out Tonight. Tonight, the positive tilt H5 trough will shift east of the central Plains and the upper flow will be northwesterly.
The best boundary layer moisture within our vicinity is currently over the Rolling Plains and will be scoured to the east by sunrise as the upper level low becomes more positively tilted, before bottoming out over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Most of our CWA will see any snowfall end by noon today, though the northern Rolling Plains including Childress, will have lingering light snow as the trough lifts out of the Texas Panhandle into the Central Plains late this afternoon. The upper trough creating today's winter weather will be moving east of the FA by tomorrow afternoon. Though warmer than today tomorrow will still be on the chilly side with highs barely reaching into the low/mid 30s amid a snow pack on the ground.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A strong cold front will power through to the coast in the next few hours.
711 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 Ridging both aloft and surface resides over the area today then begins to slip off to the east this evening. High pressure across the waters from the Atlantic.
Cold front has entered Middle Tennessee as evidenced by a large temperature gradient from west to east. As surface temperatures drop behind the cold front, precipitation will switch mainly to freezing rain, although there is also some potential for snow later on as the warm layer aloft cools. But freezing rain looks to be the predominant wintry precipitation type with this system. Owing to a relatively warm ground, there will be a lag between the initial drop to 32F and the onset of freezing precipitation. Most of the remainder of the mid state can expect at least a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain later today and tonight, and for this reason, we have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include portions of the Cumberland Plateau.
Stronger upper level ridging is likely to take hold across the western U.
Rain will briefly taper this evening through tonight before a cold front sweeps across the region on Friday. High pressure builds over the weekend for a return of drier and slightly warmer conditions across the area.
Otherwise, the main concern for today remains very cold temperatures this morning as high pressure is centered over the eastern half of North Dakota. With mostly clear skies and relatively calm winds, actual temperatures have already tanked into the 20s below zero for most locations east and north River, with a few in north central North Dakota already in the low 30s below zero. There will be some improvement in temperatures today as high pressure slowly meanders on eastward and winds become westerly in western North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to pop up into the low to mid 20s for most locations south and west of the river, while most locations east and north will remain in the single digits above zero.
Today will be the coldest day of the forecast period with highs from around 20 to the lower 20s.
247 AM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Broad upper trough across much of the CONUS is centered over the northern Plains south to NM. Canadian high pressure is pushing into the upper Midwest, with return flow setting up across the CWA. Southerly flow will advect in warmer air, with highs reaching the 20s to lower 30s. Upper ridging will build in Friday, as temperatures warm into the 30s to lower 40s.
Cold northerly flow continues today as ridging off to our west slowly creeps east. Slightly warmer but still chilly today as heights begin to increase with ridge approaching, with highs in the 30s to low 40s. Expect warmer temps with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s and nighttime lows in the upper single digits to low 20s.
Quiescent and dry weather will persist as high pressure continues to obstruct Pacific storms from affecting the Western US. East-northeast ridgetop winds 40-50 mph will decrease this morning, with 30-40 mph expected into the afternoon. Valley inversions, air stagnation, cold mornings, and continued dry conditions are expected this weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
Some patchy freezing fog is possible in our valleys once again tonight.
Confidence in freezing temps is highest at VCT as this band moves through, but CRP looks to be on the tail end of most of this activity with precip possibly drying out by the time temps fall to freezing. Would expect our NW counties to follow this cooling theme today with some sleet mixing in over the next few hours, although accumulations should be nil with 2-meter temps remaining above freezing.
While the best forcing and moisture with this system should remain to our northeast, do expect to see in a slight increase in cloud cover and winds as this feature drags a cold front across our area. In regard to temperatures, look for overnight lows to be a touch warmer than yesterday, with the coldest values forecast to occur across snow covered areas in SW Minnesota and NW Iowa. Currently have highs rising into the teens across a vast majority of our area, with values in the low 20s possible along and west of the James River.
130 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Upper ridging is building over the west coast, as the trough axis progresses through the central CONUS.