Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Potential to mix to near 850mb by Wednesday afternoon winds winds near advisory criteria in the higher terrain of the Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne river of eastern ND. Much cooler highs with 850mb temps in the 2 to 6C range and leading to highs in the 50s and 60s.
A strong cold front will drop south tomorrow delivering a round of gusty winds and more cool temperatures to the region.
Overnight skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with some patchy ground fog possible, but not expecting any widespread visibility problems as the low level east to southeast flow remains at 5 to 10 mph inland and stronger close to the coast. Deep troughing extends over the western half of the U. with the trough axis extending from the four corners region south into western Mexico. Over the east coast, upper level ridging extends from near Cuba, north-northeastward along the eastern seaboard to New England.
1212 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance Quiet again early this morning with high pressure off to our east.
Today Through Wednesday Night Short Synopsis: Deep trough currently digging into the southwest CONUS will eject out into the high plains by Wednesday morning, slowly breaking down the well-defined trough-ridge pattern the CONUS is currently situated in. Aforementioned upper low will move eastward from the southwest through the day. As such, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s across most of the state, outside of the higher elevations in the Ozarks. Convection will initiate off a dryline in the high plains on Tuesday. The upper trough will just barely clip Arkansas on Wednesday. As such, the highest chance of any tstorms will be across the north. While the highest area of DPVA swings through, preceding overcast skies may limit destabilization and convective initiation.
Low pressure will lift from Kansas tomorrow morning to northwest Iowa by the evening hours. In addition, the low level jet associated with the low will nose into the area from the south during the afternoon. Temps will likely be warmest in the east tomorrow where there should be less clouds and somewhat warmer temps aloft.
246 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017 Latest upper analysis shows another upper low moving onshore into the pacific northwest while the previous upper low gradually weakens over the four corners region.
But alas, this respite will be short-lived as the next longwave trough approaches the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Tranquil weather conditions are anticipated through the short term forecast period as Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remains on the northern and northwestern periphery of 500 mb high pressure.
219 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure through Wednesday with increasing temperatures. Upper level ridging in place providing mainly clear conditions and very warm air with the passage of a warm front earlier this morning. Do have concerns that slight might need to be added to the highest ridges in Randolph/Pocahontas for Wednesday, but will go dry for now. Upper ridge continues shifting east with a gradual transition to broad southwesterly flow aloft. Large upper closed low quickly ejects northeast across the Great Lakes before phasing with a large upper low across eastern Canada. A weak cold front will approach from the west, but persistent upper ridging across the southeastern states will limit southward progression of this feature. That said, model guidance becomes less consistent in handling the evolution of the ridge, so actual frontal placement and timing may vary.
A surface warm front stretched from northern Nebraska toward the MN/IA border. Surface temperatures were in the 60s and 70s locally with the warm front to the north. Warmer mid-level temperatures over the western High Plains is forecast to shift eastward into the forecast area this morning. As the main mid tropospheric trough arrives Wed.
555 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure through Wednesday with increasing temperatures. I did adjust Elkins low temperature down a few degrees based on current dew points and overall model guidance values cooler than current forecast. Upper level ridging in place providing mainly clear conditions and very warm air with the passage of a warm front earlier this morning. Do have concerns that slight might need to be added to the highest ridges in Randolph/Pocahontas for Wednesday, but will go dry for now.
639 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer than last night after a very warm day today, and forecast low level jet overnight which may help to keep the boundary layer disturbed enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies.
Next cold front moves across our counties and with diffluence aloft ahead of the next closed low aloft over western Wyoming, expect scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Significantly cooler with cloud cover and in the wake of the cold front. The upper low drifts slowly south over northern Utah and northwest Colorado, with best lift across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, helping to generate scattered to numerous showers with snow levels lowering to near 6000 feet by morning.
Later this afternoon plenty of uncertainty on how much convection initiates along trailing cold front so will handle for now with chance pops. Elsewhere high pressure will bring drying and a much cooler airmass to the region.
235 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Summerlike Bermuda High Pressure will persist over the region through the work week maintaining above normal temperatures.
104 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Columbia already at 92 degrees at 1pm and likely to reach the mid 90s while the remainder of the forecast area will also push into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer tonight after a very warm day today and forecast low level jet overnight which may help to keep the boundary layer disturbed enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies.
338 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Very active weather pattern shaping up from the Lower Missouri Valley in the coming days as upstream satellite trends show two potent upper-level disturbances across the Western U. Moving forward to the daylight hours on Wednesday, latest deterministic guidance continues to highlight a strong synoptic signal for severe storm development along the eastward moving dryline/Pacific cold front by Wednesday afternoon. A few details: 1) Aforementioned upper trough will take on a strong negative- tilt by late morning/early afternoon directly off to our west, suggesting max DPVA and synoptic-scale lift will be centered directly over our region by afternoon. 3) Very strong wind fields will exist aloft, as a midlevel speed max of close to 100 kts rotates into the region along the underbelly of the previously mentioned, negatively-tilted trough.
A review of Doppler radar scans has indicated development of isolated, westward-moving showers, especially downwind of the lower Florida Keys, where island differential heating has provided enhanced mesoscale convergence. A few short- lived nonsupercell/misocyclonic waterspouts have developed within the lower Keys cumulus line, a sure sign that the rainy season is near. On the large scale, a strange mid/upper flow pattern evolution is underway, with ridging and height rises ongoing over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic, while an old, once purely baroclinic, shearing gyre has been orphaned from the polar jet, now meandering over the subtropical and tropical latitudes between Florida and Jamaica. Of interest in the short range is the building ridge as it will support robust low-level anticyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic, with a subsequent increase in gradient flow and surface winds locally.
223 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 The warm front of recent interest stretches from southeastern South Dakota across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Today will be warmer given the location of the front (with much of the area in the warm sector), and considering convection will diminish in time to allow for recovery of the airmass. By evening, expect thunderstorms to fire along and ahead of the cold front, roughly along I-35 and eastward into WI. Wednesday will be turning cooler as a frontal boundary moves across the area.
Deep layer ridging will remain in place overnight keeping the weather warm and dry.
336 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017 The closed low responsible for the showers and storms this afternoon and evening has opened up and become an open wave as it moves across the CWA. A strong 110+kt jet streak continues to drop down from just off the British Columbia coast supporting a very deep, closed low.
/Issued 330 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017/ Closed upper cyclone was analyzed across southern Nevada with overnight convection confined to frontal system well to our north. As the aforementioned upper cyclone progresses east.
/issued 308 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017/ A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the Midsouth weather.
132 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 A large subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States will dominate our weather through most next 7 days.
224 PM MST Tue May 16 2017 A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert Southwest this week, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Latest analysis shows the axis of the trough now situated across the eastern half of Arizona. An area of ascent exists east of the trough axis, with current satellite imagery illustrating the greatest cloud cover in that region. This trough will continue to shift eastward pretty quickly, becoming situated across the central plains by early tomorrow morning.
Storms will dissipate to the east through the evening hours with increasing subsidence as ridging increases between two upper lows. Current model trends show freezing levels dropping between 8000 and 9000 ft by Wednesday afternoon so some snow mixed in at higher levels.
Blustery winds and cooler than normal temperatures can be expected over the central California interior through Wednesday evening with a chance of showers over the mountains.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms are still expected to develop ahead of a cold front sinking south late this afternoon/evening. Tuesday will feature dry, pleasant weather behind the cold front.
A large upper level low will develop over the Eastern Great Lakes and slowly drift to the east coast by the end of the week. Weak disturbances rotating around this low will result in a few showers across the north this afternoon and across the region Wednesday.
130 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered showers accompany an upper level low through much of the workweek.
The cold front that will bring in a shot of cooler air is still to the north and stretches E-W near the Ohio River. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low across the eastern Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley. Due to the lower PoPs will go ahead and drop the Flood Watch this morning. Clearing skies and light winds are forecast behind the surface boundary tonight with lows dropping down into the mid 50s to low 60s with upper 40s expected in the higher elevations.
307 AM MST Tue Jun 6 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system keeps temperatures above normal.
An upper disturbance will round the top of the ridge over Colorado today, bringing a pretty good chance of showers and storms to most areas, especially across the central/eastern mountains and plains. CAPES this high should lead to strong to near-severe convection. It looks like most activity will be winding down by midnight although the high res models do show some activity continuing past midnight.
The high pressure ridge providing these conditions is centered in western WI. Absolutely beautiful conditions will be widespread under the high pressure today, with winds northeast to east feeding low dewpoints into the area. Looking upstream from yesterday, many sites mixed to about 875 mb yesterday under the high pressure. Tonight, under clear skies and light winds, lows are forecast to reach the lower to mid 50s from northeast to south.
Today Through Wednesday Night Upper low pressure over Louisiana will continue to move east today and an upper ridge will build over the Rockies. The upper ridge will ease into the Plains tonight through Wednesday night. Drier air will move into the area tonight and cooler conditions are expected Wednesday.
An upper level trough approaches the area tonight, but skies will stay mostly clear with lows in the low to mid 50s. Upper troughing sinks right over the Ohio Valley for Wednesday, and that will mean slightly cooler temps and partly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the low to mid 70s.
331 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cooler and much drier air is advecting into central and southeast IL on northeast winds behind a cold over northern KY and the southern tip of IL. 1021 mb Canadian high pressure near James Bay and into western Lake Superior will continue to ridge southward from the upper MS river valley and toward central IL through tonight bringing fair a cooler/less humid weather. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. Latest models however are showing a chuck of upper level low retrograding westward over the ohio river valley during Wed and Wed evening and centered near OH/KY/WV border Wed night into Thu.
Long stretch of relatively quiet weather on tap as large cutoff upper low settles over the eastern Great Lakes, leaving our region in prevailing N/NE flow through midweek. Primary cold front is currently pushing through the area. CAA will lead to much cooler overnight lows, in the low/mid 50s per latest concensus. Much cooler conditions expected for the rest of the week. Steady warming trend anticipated late in the week followed by a sharp warmup by Sun/Mon with impressive longwave ridge building over the eastern CONUS.
235 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The airmass across the region through Tuesday will be moist and unstable ahead of a slow moving cold front. A cold front will very slowly sag south through The Palmetto State Tuesday through Wednesday.
An upper level ridge will give mostly sunny and warm weather through Wednesday.
226 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A cold front will move through the area this morning. Cooler, showery weather with an upper level low through much of the workweek. Cold frontal boundary at 06Z appears to be near the Ohio River, and is progged to continue to sag south across the area this morning, with drier air gradually filtering into the region. Most of the day should be dry, although upper low/trough will sag south into the region as the day progresses, with clouds, and showers gradually taking hold, mainly across northern zones.
The result will be cooler temperatures, close to normal for early June. The trough then will work its way into North Dakota and Manitoba tonight.
308 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The upper level ridge to our west will remain nearly stationary from yesterday. We can expect convection again off the higher terrain of New Mexico on the east side of this upper ridge. A low level theta-e ridge will be entrenched in a narrow north-south corridor in eastern New Mexico into the far western South Plains. Any convection that develops will not have much trouble sustaining itself through this higher theta-e air. However, outside of this ridge, convection will likely struggle. The aforementioned low level theta-e axis will move farther to the east on Wednesday with little to no movement in the upper level ridge axis.
Temperatures were a bit tricky given the sunny skies and advection of drier air, leading to deeper mixing of high temperatures into the lower and middle 80s.
322 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level analysis shows a positively tilted upper ridge extending from Ontario to the Four Corners region with an upper low sliding across southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through central South Dakota with high pressure beginning to build over Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures today will be cooler, but near average, behind the cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the eastern portions of the forecast area as the cold front continues to progress eastward and the upper level wave moves into the eastern Dakotas. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow an isolated shower or storm to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
A cold front stretched across the western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle, while high pressure was over the western Great Lakes into the lower Missouri Valley where significantly drier air was in place.
As the low moves away from Arkansas rain chances will diminsh from central to southeast. though a cold front dropping south across MO this evening will push through the state by Tue afternoon. Today Through Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the state as a low pressure system in the ArkLaTex region begins to accelerate eastward with the help of a kicker low swinging through the Great Lakes region. Upstream of the low is a somewhat amplified ridge which will influence our weather in Arkansas the next few days. The aforementioned ridge of high will slowly progress eastward and flatten out.
442 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A hot dry airmass remains in place across the forecast area this morning as a strong ridge of high pressure is in position over the Intermountain West and the Rocky Mountains. Mid and upper level moisture continues to sneak in beneath the ridge. This moisture will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the high terrain. Not much movement is forecast with the ridge of high pressure through at least Wednesday.
Expect that the fog will worsen some by sunrise in at least a few locations, but given current dew point trends, confidence is not high enough in the areal coverage or in the longevity of the lowest visibilities to issue an advisory at this time. The remainder of today will be quiet, albeit hot, ahead of a backdoor cold front that will move through late this afternoon and evening.
Fair weather will continue today with upper ridge axis shifting to the east today.
Convection is best in south central SD and north central NE, or along a weak warm front. Main focus is the near record warmth this weekend as an upper low over the Pacific Northwest opens and shears out across the northern tier of the CONUS.
203 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level low pressure dropping out of southern Ontario will bring unsettled conditions to the North Country through Tuesday.
411 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A broad upper trough centered near the Louisiana Gulf coast will continue to slowly drift eastward and away from the area over the next 24 hours. A moist airmass remains in place, and the upper trough should provide enough vertical ascent for scattered convection to persist across the southeast half of the forecast area, generally southeast of a line from Tyler, TX to Prescott, AR. Rain chances will be highest in the farthest southeast zones in North Central Louisiana closer to the center of the trough and where deep layer moisture is more abundant. Rain chances should end from northwest to southeast by early Wednesday morning as drier air moves into the region behind the departing trough.
Not much to talk about in the short term with high pressure continuing overhead. Upper-level ridge over the region will be squeezed between an approaching trough from the Canadian Prairies and the departing low over the central and eastern Great Lakes.
327 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 An upper level ridge will remain stationary over the western U. During this time, a series of weak disturbances will move southeast along the front edge of the ridge bringing a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. The highest rain chances will be in southeastern New Mexico and the higher elevations from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Davis Mountains. With the ridge holding off to the west, we can also expect temperatures to remain near normal. An upper trough will then move on to the west coast over the weekend, dampening the ridge and changing our flow from the north to the west.
Subsidence will persist over the CWA/MSA during the period as the upper trough/low moves slowly EWD across the northern Gulf of Mexico/adjacent Gulf states. As the upper low moves EWD, a weak boundary will move across the MSA Today and contribute to generally persistent weak/moderate north flow through the remainder of the period.
627 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A cold front will move through the area this morning. Cool and showery weather under an upper level low through much of the week. Cold frontal boundary at 06Z appears to be near the Ohio River, and is progged to continue to sag south across the area this morning, with drier air gradually filtering into the region. Most of the day should be dry, although upper low/trough will sag south into the region as the day progresses, with clouds, and showers gradually taking hold, mainly across northern zones. Upper low over the area giving unsettled weather which is inherently difficult to time.
249 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 As the upper ridge builds across the Four Corners, the upper flow over the Panhandles will become more northwesterly.
Persistent upper level trough will continue to move east and away from our area along the Gulf Coast. However, lingering deeper moisture and heating may allow for some showers and thunderstorms along the Highway 77 corridor. A dry northwesterly flow prevails on Wednesday between troughing over the eastern states and ridging over the Rockies.
An upper level trough, located over Montana at 00z Tuesday, will move across the northern Rockies early today and then drop southeast overnight on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge axis that will extend from the four corners region to Wyoming.
548 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cooler and much drier air is advecting into central and southeast IL on northeast winds behind a cold over northern KY and the southern tip of IL. 1021 mb Canadian high pressure near James Bay and into western Lake Superior will continue to ridge southward from the upper MS river valley and toward central IL through tonight bringing fair a cooler/less humid weather. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. Latest models however are showing a chuck of upper level low retrograding westward over the ohio river valley during Wed and Wed evening and centered near OH/KY/WV border Wed night into Thu.
400 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop today as a chilly upper level low moves directly over the region.
Showers and thunderstorms should push south-southeastward under north-northwesterly flow aloft once they enter eastern NM and should only skirt the western fringes of the FA tonight as most of the area remains under a theta-e ridge. Tomorrow may provide better chances for precip for the western half of the FA as upper level flow will begin to turn more northwesterly as the upper ridge to our west amplifies. Precip chances continue to increase into mid week as a LLJ becomes more pronounced helping maintain storms while allowing further southeastward progression from the higher terrain of NM.
408 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The airmass across the region through Tuesday will be moist and unstable ahead of a slow moving cold front.
/issued 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ A mid level ridge axis will remain just w of the central NM mtns leaving the CWFA within NW-N flow aloft thru Thur, a general favored flow for nocturnal storms for areas n of I-20. In this particular case the fetch of the NW component is not very long and thus a little more difficult for definitive shrtwv trofs to track thru the flow. Wed night SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos are the favored areas, less signal Thur night? In the meantime, NW flow does not favor the development of the low level thermal ridge and thus high temps will mostly remain seasonal thru Thur.