Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, an upper level ridge stretched north over the Plains with a mean upper trough stretching south along the east Coast from an upper level system over the New England Coast. The deepening West Coast upper trough shifts east over the Rockies to the Central Plains into Saturday before beginning to get shunted northeast by the eastward shifting Plains upper ridge, becoming negatively tilted in the process. Light rain showers will begin to approach southeast Mississippi Saturday afternoon, but model soundings show a deep dry layer in the low levels to moisten up, limiting any measurable amounts of rain from reaching the surface.
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Surface winds will increase from the south late this morning under a mid to upper ridge ahead of an approaching upper trough traversing central CA. As a result, expect much warmer afternoon highs today despite increasing cirrostratus from the SW ahead of the aforementioned trough.
236 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern today with a pretty pleasant day so far if you ask me. Will begin to see a few more clouds move into the area overnight as this high pressure continues to drift eastward. A couple of CAMs want to bring a wave of light showers riding along the warm front across the area, while others want to keep us dry until tomorrow evening. Heavier showers along the cold front will begin to move in tomorrow evening through the overnight hours and we could see periods of heavier showers with this line.
Showers will continue across far eastern Oregon through 29/18Z and in western Idaho through 30/03Z, along and near a cold front, with snow above 4000 to 4500 feet MSL.
1116 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 The short term forecast will start out very quiet with some strong mid and and upper level ridging dominating the CWA. Fair weather can be expected with temperatures much warmer than the past few days. A strong low pressure system will be emerging from the Four Corners area and begin to encroach on the region.
/issued 439 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021/ High pressure will bring clear and seasonably conditions to the local area for the next 24 hours. Upper trough will close off and move into the middle Mississippi River valley Saturday night bringing the next chance of showers along an approaching frontal boundary.
Snow showers will accompant the passage of a Pacific trough of low pressure as it moves across the eastern half of Nevada this afternoon.
Currently, the area sits in southwesterly flow aloft, with a mid- level trough axis positioned across CA/NV. The trough over CA/NV will continue to move eastward overnight and approach the area as an open wave. This leads to freezing drizzle as the primary p-type for areas generally east and northeast of a Burwell to Springview line.
Two factors at play, feeding into the high precipitable water values (0. The 500mb trough, sliding onto the West Coast as I type this, is quick moving, and will make it to the Plains with modest Pacific moisture in tow. The greatest rainfall is expected to form along a corridor stretching from east central Kansas, along and south of the lower Missouri Valley, and into central and northeastern Missouri.
Warm air and ample moisture will spread into the region along the southwest flow, highlighted by the NAEFS and ECMWF Ensemble Situational Awareness tables indicating PWAT values in excess of the 90th climatological percentile across the region with the highest values expected across northern Missouri.
41 High pressure ridge will move overhead today and begin to push offshore on Saturday. By late Saturday, low pressure begins to move into the central US, with a frontal boundary still west of the Mississippi River. The newer model guidance isn't really showing any precip at this time, with high pressure firmly in place.
GOES-16 Satellite trends continue to depict an upper level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The aforementioned upper level ridge axis will provide precipitation free conditions across the Mid-South tonight but will gradually shift east overnight as an upper level low over the West Coast of the United States moves east into the Central Plains.
/Tonight through Tomorrow night/ A unseasonably warm period is expected across the Four-States region, as strong south winds will push much warmer Gulf air into the region ahead of the cold front.
307 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
Meanwhile low pressure has been building to the west off the Rockies and into the Plains. Initial isentropic lift across the area in the overnight hours and early Saturday morning will result in a freezing drizzle situation across portions of western Iowa. Model soundings indicate appreciable low level moisture with surface temperatures below freezing, show a classic freezing drizzle setup. The freezing line bisects the state, making for a very messy and nuanced precipitation type forecast throughout the day. Right now data indicates that areas roughly along and south of I-80 will see mostly rain to start, though some minor freezing rain/drizzle will be possible. North of I-80 expect to see more freezing rain through the afternoon.
1020 AM MST Fri Jan 29 2021 A system coming out of Mexico ahead of the main trough is proving way more robust than any forecast model predicted. The bigger issue will be wind associated with a cold front expected to arrive late tonight.
310 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Tonight through Saturday should be quiet as an upper ridge moves across the southeast. A strong upper closed low will move rapidly into the Mid MS Valley Saturday night.
The low will move east towards the area tonight into Saturday, then through the area Saturday evening and night. Mild conditions are occurring across the area ahead of the low, as temperatures range from middle 40s across central Missouri to the low to mid 50s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the region as the low moves east towards the area. Rain will also develop and move across the area with the low on Saturday. Still looking at widespread rainfall amounts of around one half inch to around one inch with the higher amounts generally along and north of Highway 54.
236 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure surface and aloft will maintain pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area tonight and into the start of the weekend.
1251 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Clear and cold tonight with high pressure in control.
Surface analysis at 19Z showed high pressure had moved east of WI and the leading edge of low cloud was starting to nudge farther north into the forecast area. As a result temperatures should remain above normal overnight, with lows ranging from the low to middle teens in the Northwoods, to the upper teens and low 20s across central and east- central WI.
HRRR and other models have this area moving into southern IL tonight, along the cold front that has reaching southeast IL. 19z/2pm surface map shows cold front extending from near Danville to just north of St. Light rain will develop along/north of the low, but most of this precip will hold off until Friday morning. 850mb moisture axis and thermal ridge pointed northward along MS river into southern IL this morning. Cold front on surface data and SFC mesoscale analysis data has reached central IL.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A 850MB COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS PAST WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
927 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH COOLER.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN FRIDAY NIGHT.
Cold front has settled south to near I-70 at the moment and thunderstorms are expected to continue to blossom over the next few hours along and south of the front.
1130 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 SYNOPSIS: CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BREEZY WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH PRETTY COMMONPLACE WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SWING EAST. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUR AIRMASS FEED IS FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NOSING OUT FROM WYOMING INTO IOWA. FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE KEY WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NODAK AND NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
1250 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015 PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING. THE SURFACE WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT.
A WEATHER CONCERN OF FRIDAY WILL WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 22-00Z FOR KAUS AND 23-01Z FOR KSAT/KSSF WITH SCT TSRA ALONG IT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015/ LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WAS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPS OVER COME THE LOW LEVEL CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
909 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015 CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS COLDER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY DROP IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING. SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY DELAY THE FREEZING TEMPS A BIT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL FLOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FLAT RIDGE WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP THERE.
853 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015 MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS SLID INTO NORTH DAKOTA. BUT AGAIN THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY SO WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN ISOLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN AND NRN OK INTO SW AND SCNTRL MO. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF THE LOW STRATUS. ALTHOUGH THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME MORE CAPPED OFF IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
632 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE STEADILY INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS IOWA LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI NOW AND WE RESIDE IN AN AREA OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT. PUMPING IN COOLER AIR DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SUFFICIENT SATURATION TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE THE COOLER/DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL NOT BE AS DEEP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH THERMAL TROF DROPPING INTO THE STATE.
1035 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS COLDER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY DROP IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING. SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY DELAY THE FREEZING TEMPS A BIT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL FLOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FLAT RIDGE WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z.
High pressure then starts moving in allowing for drying of the well-mixed atmosphere and partial clearing. Temps should fall into the lower to mid 20s tonight, but the duration of coldest temps is expected to be only 2-3 hours as some upper atmospheric moisture and clouds move in ahead of another front later.
Fortunately most locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation. Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually developing from north to south.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC BACK TO THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 10 INCH ON 12Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS) IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.
1147 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015 High pressure settling into the Midwest providing a break between systems for today with plenty of sunshine through broken cirrus and temps on their way towards the upper 20s and lower 30s later this afternoon. High pressure centered from north central Missouri through northwest Iowa will drift over the area today bringing a quiet weather scene to the forecast area. Will tend to follow the cooler guid today with little to no low level warm advection expected until the high shifts further off to the east, which won't be until tonight.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC COAST/GREAT BASIN REGION. ONE LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN UT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TENNESSEE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. WE/LL TREND TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL SKIRT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONG PAC NW IMPULSE WILL PARTIALLY MERGE WITH AN EJECTING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH. BUT STILL A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE MERGING AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER THEY HAVE BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY.
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER WASHINGTON AND NW MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z FROM NW TO SE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE COAST BUT SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL COME THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MCCALL/ID THROUGH SRN HARNEY COUNTY/OR.
1224 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
336 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN TROUGH TO DIG A BIT MORE AND BE SLOWER COMING OUT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. -HOWERTON THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IN THE AREAS WHERE DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG.
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND AFTER-AFFECTS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT BUT STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH SNOW BAND LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS FAR NW FA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE C PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. FRONAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING BACK TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS GOVERNING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED APPROX 70 MILES EAST OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH A DENSE/COOL AIRMASS REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. I HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE LOWEST VALUES ALONG THE COAST.
/ISSUED 446 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING.
130 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING OVER COASTAL AREAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
Canadian cold front has pushed through KCTB and most of the western portion of central Montana with snow gradually developing from north to south. Cold front pushed through KGTF just before 17z Monday and will continue to push south through central and southwest Montana this afternoon.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT.
A WARM LAYER THEN PUSHES IN BETWEEN 800-700MB AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX IN SOME COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LIFT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. WENT WITH A FEW HOURS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW- LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG IF NEAR SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WE WILL SEE DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH.
1045 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015 WARMER AIR NOT FAR OFF. /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/ FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEAR LAFAYETTE AND BATON ROUGE TO SHIFT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON REPLACING THE COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 70S IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
104 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. /ISSUED 1056 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/ VERY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 318 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/ A DEEP LAYER RIDGE, WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 591DM, WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK, AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO, TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW, DIVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK, WILL CARVE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MOVING EAST AND ALTERING THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, UNTIL PERHAPS THIS WEEKEND.
WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. BY THE TIME WE GET DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE COOL AIR FROM WEST TO EAST; HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS STILL SET TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MID-DAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY COLDER AIR AND A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/ SNOW NORTH TO SOUTH.