Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move slowly southeast through central North Carolina today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region tonight through the weekend. Good moisture transport and isentropic lift ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some tropical moisture from tropical depression Mindy, should allow precipitation to fill in for the remainder of the morning to afternoon hours, especially along/east of US-1. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build in from the Midwest.
1126 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Today's H500 09/00Z hand analysis map shows the center of the Western ridge approaching the 4 Corners region. The center of the ridge will be shunted to the southeast as heights lower upstream by the next trough arriving to the PacNW Coast tonight. There is moisture being advected into the western side of the ridge which will not be a factor for our CWA until late tomorrow afternoon. It still appears the smoke is scattering just enough radiation that highs have generally been on the lower side of guidance. This looks more likely on Friday as the ridge shifts enough to the east the southerly flow should force the main conveyor belt of smoke well to the North and East.
224 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A quiet period is expected across the area as high pressure slowly slides east and weak return flow sets up Friday into Friday night.
Temperatures will be warmer tonight and Friday as the upper ridge begins to slide east. For the weekend, the models continue to move the upper level ridge over the the Ozarks.
Only made slight upward adjustments to the highs on Friday, with temps well into the 100s expected across the plains.
640 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will drift east into IL this evening, and pass east of IL on Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
SREF continues to have some probabilities of visibility less than 1 mile and a few of the high res models have some fog also so kept the patchy fog mention we have going. Think temps will bottom out mostly in the low to mid 50s. A few light radar returns moving through western MN as a weak vort max rotates down the backside of the trough. The remainder of the CWA is experiencing clear skies with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. Friday brings much warmer temperatures into the area as afternoon highs climb quickly into the middle 80s, with upper 80s possible west of the Red River.
540 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Warmer air will build into the region tonight into Friday as the upper level ridge aloft shifts east. Along with the warmer temperatures will come additional smoke so skies will likely be a bit hazy again on Friday. Lows tonight a bit milder than this morning, mainly in the 50s while highs on Friday will be warmer with 90s west of Interstate 29 and 80s elsewhere.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan, with trough dropping down into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western CONUS, with high near the four corners area. On Friday, upper ridge meanders easterly bringing another toasty day to the area. With the ridge moving east, some smoke moves into our area. Late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night a cold front will push through the area.
A ridge will continue to build aloft into Friday. Temperatures will soar back into the 80s and 90s under the ridge with warmest conditions along and west of the Missouri River. However, given weak high pressure at the sfc, winds are expected to be fairly light with an occasional gust to around 20 mph. Winds will increase a bit closer to 0z as low pressure near the Black Hills allows for breezier winds as far east as the Missouri Valley.
Trough axis will swing through the area this evening. Friday will be dry and pleasant thanks to high pressure building across the Ohio Valley. Broad high pressure will continue through most of the weekend, with low level warm advection resulting in high pressure several degrees above the climatological norm.
736 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A few storms possible today as an upper trough swings through. High pressure for the remainder of the week. Still looking at isolated showers and thunderstorms firing up this afternoon and early evening due to influence of upper trough and daytime heating. Friday looks to be sunny, dry, and cool, under influence of high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft. Upper ridging will move in for the weekend, pushing out the upper troughing previously over the area. High pressure and drier air dominate at the surface allowing for a warm and sunny weekend.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of northern Arizona today and again Friday afternoon. These storms are moving to the northwest around the high centered near the Four Corners. Friday will see drier air move into the region with the low-level flow shifting more southwest, and the high pressure settling in over New Mexico, spreading west to warm the mid levels a few degrees. The area will see a continued west to southwest dry flow through the coming week as a series of troughs pass to the north. forecast confidence is only moderate, as the Canadian model keeps the high pressure to the east and keeps Arizona under a southerly monsoonal flow through the weekend. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday mainly over the high terrain northwest of Coconino County.
845 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Canadian high pressure will drift east into IL this evening, and pass east of IL on Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
802 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 During the next 24 hours: A mid level trough extends down the eastern states to the northeast Gulf of Mexico and northern FL. Ridging aloft Cuba and the Bahamas sprawls across southern FL. At the surface a trough off the southeast US coast stretches across north FL and along the northern Gulf coast. Atlantic high pressure reaches across southern FL to the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The elevated seas and swells on the Gulf which created a high risk of currents are now decreasing and will allow the high risk of rip current to expire this evening. A weak trough across northern FL dissipates late Fri as high pressure from the Atlantic continues in the south. After the trough is gone the high pressure lifts north across the state.
Strong upper ridge over the 4 corners this afternoon will continue to meander into NM over the next few days. TDs are some of the lowest we have seen, since the Monsoon started.
815 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A surface cold front will exit eastern North Carolina this evening.
A trough will move into NorCal tonight. This trough will then swing northeastward into the northern Rockies by Friday evening. The upper level high pressure responsible for the recent stretch of triple digit heat will flatten and push east into the central Plains.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR conditions across the area on Friday associated with a cold frontal passage.
with the upper ridge in place across the Western CONUS. temps overnight look to be a little warmer tonight compared to early this morning.
525 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Upper-level dome of high pressure will continue to keep above average temperatures, smoke and elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the area through the period. The ridge will continue to wrap smoke across the northern portions of the CWA through the period.
Weather in the short term will be dominated by the long running presence of an upper ridge to our northwest. Moving ahead to Friday, upper high becomes centered over N NM, with heights aloft over the CWA continuing to build accordingly.
Mid/upper level ridging will gradually expand east across the mid MS and lower OH River Valleys as we go through the short term period.
That was until the boundary crossed over the lower Keys this evening. In addition, there is still quite a bit of subsidence being provided as we remain on the western periphery or a low and mid level ridge. Said aforementioned ridge will continue to suppress rain chances for the remainder of the overnight as dry air continues to pivot around this feature in the low and mid levels. This is because the ridge will lift north as it builds, allowing for deep easterly flow to return. With that said, ridge in place will make for light and variable breezes overnight across all of the coastal waters. Thereafter, ridge will build back westward across south Florida and the Florida Keys, leading to freshening breezes.
Increasing and strong southwest flow will then be the rule into the first half of the Weekend as a cold front slides through the northern Great Lakes.
952 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 There has been no change in the near term forecast reasoning this evening, with a broad ridge of high pressure building eastward into the OH/TN Valleys resulting in calm to occasionally light northeast flow overnight. After starting the day in the 50s, temperatures will climb into the low 80s.
An upper level ridge located over the Rockies will begin to move into the Central Plains today and influence our weather.
A quiet period is expected across the area as high pressure slowly slides east and weak return flow sets up Friday into Friday night.
Big high pressure ridge over region with little change in the weather pattern for Friday. The big ridge of high pressure will be suppressed this weekend as next upper trof moves across the Northern Rockies with an associated cold front.
Satellite imagery from this evening is showing fairly clear skies across the region, however, it does appear that there is some smoke from western wildfires working around the ridge to the west and filtering into our area. /Tonight through Friday Night/ Northeasterly winds will wane later tonight, allowing some radiational cooling to kick in and push low temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s across the Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, surface ridging builds further east across most of the Southeast United States, returning light easterly winds across the area. Similar conditions return for Friday night, with clear skies and light winds allowing more radiational cooling in the low-to-mid 60s.
Meso models have continually favored additional showers and thunderstorms moving onshore from the GOMEX in the predawn hours ahead of the slow moving cold front positioned over the FL Panhandle. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
634 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Forecast challenge is temperatures tomorrow as the upper ridge strengthens and builds east then heights fall with increasing zonal flow aloft into the extended. The ensemble continues to show the upper ridge will break down over the weekend, then increasing zonal flow aloft.
High pressure will continue to build over the region from the west, leading to calm winds and clear skies through the night. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 82 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 80 58 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 80 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 78 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 0.
In other words, while there is zero doubt that tomorrow will be noticeably warmer/hotter than today based solely on a significant increase in the low-level temp profile, feel that the majority of the CWA is probably heading more toward low-mid 90s (at most) instead of mid-upper 90s. With the upper level ridge expected to continue to the west during the day Friday, expect the smoke to stream through the area tomorrow as well. The ridge drifts a little to the east and would expect temperatures to be a little warmer. Did lower temperatures a little bit, but would not be completely surprised if temperatures were a few degrees cooler than forecast.
641 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A few light radar returns moving through western MN as a weak vort max rotates down the backside of the trough. The remainder of the CWA is experiencing clear skies with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s. Friday brings much warmer temperatures into the area as afternoon highs climb quickly into the middle 80s, with upper 80s possible west of the Red River.
303 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Upper-level dome of high pressure will continue to keep above average temperatures, smoke and elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the area through the period. The ridge will continue to wrap smoke across the northern portions of the CWA through the period.
332 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 (Issued 332 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021) Today and Tonight: High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will gradually shift southeast out to the New England states today. As the high exits, the winds will shift to southerly. The southerly winds will bring some warmer air into southern Wisconsin.
Temperatures increase a few degrees today, into the low 80s.
A quiet period is expected across the area as high pressure slowly slides east and weak return flow sets up Friday into Friday night. A frontal boundary will work southeast across the area late Friday night into early Saturday, but any moisture return will be shallow given the strong ridge over the western CONUS.
An upper level ridge currently located over the central Rocky Mountains will drift slowly to the east. The ridge will allow for return flow at the lower levels and theta-e advection. For Friday, expect temperatures to be 10 degrees warmer than today. For this forecast issuance, the high temperature forecast for Friday is near the 75th percentile of model guidance. This indicates that temperatures could be warmer than expected.
Ridging aloft will continue to pump dry air into the region through Saturday. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will in the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows tonight dropping down into the low 60s.
This evening through Friday night Upper-level dome of high pressure will continue to keep above average temperatures, smoke and elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the area through the period. The ridge will continue to wrap smoke across the northern portions of the CWA through the period. A cold front will then drag through the region Saturday morning bringing scattered showers and storms.
Clearing skies are then expected tonight, with areas of dense fog expected over much of the area as high pressure settles in across the region. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the lower to middle 40s across the north, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across central and east-central Wisconsin. Sunny skies are expected Friday once any morning fog dissipates, with slightly warmer temperatures as the aforementioned high pressure moves off to the east and surface winds become southerly.
/issued 1004 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ Aside from a little bit of smoke from western CONUS wildfires working their way into the area around the ridge to our west, skies remain clear this evening and will continue to remain mostly clear through the night. /Tonight through Friday Night/ Northeasterly winds will wane later tonight, allowing some radiational cooling to kick in and push low temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s across the Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, surface ridging builds further east across most of the Southeast United States, returning light easterly winds across the area. Similar conditions return for Friday night, with clear skies and light winds allowing more radiational cooling in the low-to-mid 60s.
305 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A high pressure system will provide dry weather with a warming trend through the weekend and into the next work week. A quiet day is then expected as high pressure takes control over the area. Dry air accompanying the high pressure will keep humidity levels low, and temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal for this time of year. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 70s in the lowlands and upper 50s to low 70s in the mountains. Tonight, temperatures are expected to lower in the the 50s for the lowlands and mid to upper 40s in the mountains. A high pressure system will slowly slide eastward across the area over the weekend and into the next work week.
Dry and pleasant conditions are expected today as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. Broad high pressure will continue through most of the weekend, with low level warm advection resulting in high pressure several degrees above the climatological norm.
Only made slight upward adjustments to the highs on Friday, with temps well into the 100s expected across the plains. Friday Night and Saturday: Upper level closed low will be located over Colorado-New Mexico border, so dry conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday morning. A trough is expected to propagate over Montana with its trough axis stretching down towards Colorado. The result of the trough passage will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains.
The ridge aloft will remain centered over Colorado and New Mexico today and is forecast to gradually flatten on Saturday. GOES-East Derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates very dry air in place for this time of year beneath the ridge across South Central Texas, ranging from 0. The anomalously low dew points will actually make the warm afternoon temperatures feel slightly cooler than the air temperature.
The winds will boost temperatures well into the 80s with low-mid 90s possible off/outside the higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau.
Following the cold front passage, high pressure and drier air are building into the area and will remain in place through the weekend. Dew points and temperatures are quickly falling across the Upstate following the cold frontal passage. The northern and western Midlands and Pee Dee will see morning lows in the upper 50s with the rest of the forecast area dropping into the lower 60s. High pressure will make for a dry Friday with below average temperatures, in the mid 80s, with light north winds and dew points in the mid-low 50s. High pressure is firmly in control of the region this weekend leading to superb weather conditions.
302 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure was providing much of the area with calm winds and clear skies early this morning. Temperatures were in the low to mid 50s with dew points about the same. As the high moves off to the east today, winds will increase from the south to southeast and will bring some slightly more noticeable humidity levels into the region. This will keep temperatures much warmer than those we're seeing early this morning. This combination may lead to heat index values in the lower to mid 90s.
135 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A few storms possible today as an upper trough swings through. High pressure for the remainder of the week. Still looking at isolated showers and thunderstorms firing up this afternoon and early evening due to influence of upper trough and daytime heating. Friday looks to be sunny, dry, and cool, under influence of high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft. Upper ridging will move in for the weekend, pushing out the upper troughing previously over the area. High pressure and drier air dominate at the surface allowing for a warm and sunny weekend. Saturday will be a bit warmer than the end of this week with high temperatures right around or just below normal, with upper 70s to low 80s across the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the higher elevations.
1150 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Forecast challenge is temperatures tomorrow as the upper ridge strengthens and builds east then heights fall with increasing zonal flow aloft into the extended. The ensemble continues to show the upper ridge will break down over the weekend, then increasing zonal flow aloft.
High pressure will continue to bring dry and cooler conditions today and tonight. High pressure at the surface continues to move in across the lower Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes. After some brief fog early this morning across river valleys, today will feature nearly clear skies with cooler temperatures once again. High pressure continues to advance eastward tonight.
The higher 850 mb temperatures will lag to the west this afternoon, which will make for just a slight warm up compared to yesterday. High temperatures should come in around the low-mid 70s for most of southeast Michigan. 00 inch and a good amount of dry air in the lower levels resulting in limited cloud cover today. Elevated lower level flow of 25-30 knots at the base of a closed mid/upper low pressure system over James Bay will bring potential for gusts to 30 mph during the afternoon.
With cold air advection not as strong but still in place, high temperatures will trend on a slightly cooler than normal trend, rising into the low/mid 80s. Lows will be a tad warmer, mainly in the upper 50s. Mean troughing extending southward along the eastern seaboard will gradually relax during the course of the weekend, as upper ridging over the Southwest slowly builds eastward.
A ridge will continue to build aloft into Friday. Temperatures will soar back into the 80s and 90s under the ridge with warmest conditions along and west of the Missouri River. However, given weak high pressure at the sfc, winds are expected to be fairly light with an occasional gust to around 20 mph. Winds will increase a bit closer to 0z as low pressure near the Black Hills allows for breezier winds as far east as the Missouri Valley. Breezy to perhaps windy conditions will set up through the afternoon driving in a cooler air mass.
1023 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Warmer air will build into the region tonight into Friday as the upper level ridge aloft shifts east. Along with the warmer temperatures will come additional smoke so skies will likely be a bit hazy again on Friday. Lows tonight a bit milder than this morning, mainly in the 50s while highs on Friday will be warmer with 90s west of Interstate 29 and 80s elsewhere. Friday night into Saturday the ridge flattens a bit and starts to shift east. This will allow cooler air to ooze southward on Saturday and may cool highs a few degrees north of Interstate 90.
Satellite imagery revealing a large high pressure dome enveloping the western and central CONUS.
In other words, while there is zero doubt that tomorrow will be noticeably warmer/hotter than today based solely on a significant increase in the low-level temp profile, feel that the majority of the CWA is probably heading more toward low-mid 90s (at most) instead of mid-upper 90s. With the upper level ridge expected to continue to the west during the day Friday, expect the smoke to stream through the area tomorrow as well. The ridge drifts a little to the east and would expect temperatures to be a little warmer. Did lower temperatures a little bit, but would not be completely surprised if temperatures were a few degrees cooler than forecast. Friday night into Saturday the upper level ridge continues to drift to the east and temperatures will be warm for Saturday as well.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) An upper level ridge remains over TX/NM today and will be the main driving factor for our highs this afternoon as the thermal ridge shifts over our CWA. With the ridge in place, expect no precipitation with clear skies and calm winds to wrap up the work week. By Saturday, the ridge will begin to flatten out thanks to a trough moving eastward off the Pacific NW.
A strong (>596 dm) midlevel anticyclone was centered over northern New Mexico, with SW KS residing under the dry subsident northeast periphery of the high's circulation.
There has been no change in the near term forecast reasoning this evening, with a broad ridge of high pressure building eastward into the OH/TN Valleys resulting in calm to occasionally light northeast flow overnight. After starting the day in the 50s, temperatures will climb into the low 80s.