Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high res models, including HRRR, Tx Tech WRF and ARW are indicating and MCS developing across the Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. The main wave will continue off to the east, but is progged to leave a "weakness" in the mid-level ridge over the Lone Star State.
431 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU MUCH OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF STALLING ACROSS THE ECNTRL AND SERN TX PNHDL.
THIS FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER AZ THEREBY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BEST CHANCE IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHOULD BE JUST AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH A GUSTY E CANYON WIND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO, IN THE LOWER 70S.
317 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT.
520 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WARM CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. THE HIGH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERN SITES CAN EXPECT SOME SHIFTING WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MONTANA. WYOMING AND COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP WINDS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN SD IN THE NEAR TERM.
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME CU OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OFF LAKE SATURDAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER.
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TOPS TO CELLS AND RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR NONE OF THE CELLS PRODUCING ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR. UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC MAKES SOME WESTWARD RETROGRESSIVE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS GA TO THE TN VALLEY.
626 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY IN THE AFTN ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH BUT AIRMASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG CDFNT OVER NW INDIANA/ERN IL. FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES LIFTING NEWD UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE UPR GRTLKS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD STRETCHING FROM HERE SOUTH TO HOBBS AS AN UPPER JET STREAK AND UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
128 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS SATURDAY MORNING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
641 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC MAKES SOME WESTWARD RETROGRESSIVE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS GA TO THE TN VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE TX COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING (H5 ~589-591 DAM)IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO KEEP SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST CONDITIONS EXTEND INTO THE UPPER LEVELS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR. RIDGING FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY.
WILL SEE A DRY START TO SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR WYOMING ZONES IN THE LATE MORNING.
UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN WITH RIDGING NOSING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS GAINING CONTROL. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT APPRECIABLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S COAST. AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO LARGELY SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS AND OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
Saturday will also pose a threat for severe weather as well with the mid level trough supporting maintenance of the surface lee trough over eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Instability and shear are not as good, but will be enough to support strong to severe storms east of the dryline and along the higher terrain.
230 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WILL HAVE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE FLAT RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MORE OVER CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROF OVER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE A FLAT PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL NOT HAVE THE STRENGTH TO PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TROF FROM PUSHING ONSHORE.
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 3 PM OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ENE-WSW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN OK.
448 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO CHANNEL A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ TWO INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME FIXED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MS.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WEAK DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED SHEATHS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WHILE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SHIFTS TO THE NORTH INTO SE TEX.
Cold air behind the front and partially clear skies will allow temperatures to cool down to near freezing in valleys above 5500 feet and for all elevations within and adjacent to Glacier Park.
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS SOME LINGERING TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE HIGH POINTS WILL BE FAVORED. THE SOUTH WILL SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN MOISTURE IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WESTWARD TO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE 500MB TROF OVER MONTANA DEEPENS. WE COULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE PROFILES DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF.
THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z SATURDAY MORNING USHERING IN COOLER TEMPS WITH BYG EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA CAPPED OR WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY.
322 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE STATE. EVEN THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN. BUT LIKELY COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW WITH READINGS NEAR 80 ON THE PLAINS AND IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION OF THE UPPER PATTERN FROM WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. /ISSUED 1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST. /ISSUED 319 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH TRANSLATES TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WARM CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. THE HIGH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH THE COLUMN LOCATED OFF THE FL/GA COAST TODAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE NW TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER.
OTHERWISE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO SHRINK A BIT OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
There may be some nocturnal convection moving eastward into the western portion of our forecast area late tonight/early Saturday morning ahead of the upper level trough over the central Plains and on the nose of a s-swly low level jet focusing into sortheast KS and southwest MO.
OVERVIEW: HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SQUEEZE DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE STATE BRINGING CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW FORECAST TO QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE MOIST RETURN FLOW TO BUILD IN FOR THE AFTERNOON (PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM MINNESOTA. WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. CANADIAN UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO MONTANA DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN SD SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE MID 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL RETROGRADE WEST SOMEWHAT WITH THE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S.
Cold front will continue to push into central and northeast Missouri through the morning with generally dry conditions moving in behind it for a few hours. More widespread rain and thunderstorms could develop later this evening and overnight when a low-level jet will nose into the region and interact with the slowly retreating warm front.
359 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY IN THE AFTN ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH BUT AIRMASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG CDFNT OVER NW INDIANA/ERN IL. FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES LIFTING NEWD UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE UPR GRTLKS. A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF OVER NE INDIANA AND NW OHIO AND MOVED THROUGH FWA BTWN 16-17Z.
TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES WITH UPCOMING COLD FRONT OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER CANADA A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER ND BECOMING ORIENTED FROM N CENTRAL TO SW ND BY SAT MORNING.
341 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND THIS COMBINED WITH A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACT TOGETHER TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
203 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
RIDGING WAS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PEAKS WITH SOME MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO A CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNKNOWN PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THINGS BECOME COMPLICATED AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD. BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EAST OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
359 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH HEATING. RIDGING BEGINS TO CREEP OVER ALABAMA FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE SOONER THAN THE EURO.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
THERE WAS SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE RAP MODEL AND THE SATELLITE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS TO SHEAR OUT THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND PUSH THE MOISTURE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TAKING A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWS THAT A BREAK IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES BUT KGLS.
251 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
UPPER LOW OVER SW CANADA. COLD FRONT WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT 20Z AS WINDS HAD BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO GOOD MIXING. THE COOLER PUSH OF AIR WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER N OF CUT BANK AND WILL NOT ENTER THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N. AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST. SUN LOOKED LIKE A MORE STABLE DAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COOLER AIRMASS.
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
342 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TRACK ACROSS COASTAL MAINE TONIGHT.
401 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015 The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow moving upper trough.
1234 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE US. A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TODAY IS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THIS AREA HIGH PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CLDS/SHRA IN WC WI WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. THE SECOND IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAK.
AND BETWEEN FEATURES AT THE SURFACE SUCH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE LOW END. AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING IS PRESENT.
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BUILD FARTHER EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EARLY IN THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WARMER BUT DRIER AIR NOTED ALOFT IN LOCAL SOUNDINGS SO STRONG DOWNBURSTS A LIKELY THREAT TO AVIATION INTERESTS WITH STORMS TODAY.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF UTAH TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE MOISTURE IS POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS COURTESY OF MONSOON RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY THE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
852 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH TODAY.
850 MB TEMPS ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
936 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN IDAHO BORDER AT 9 AM.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER LESS HUMID AIR AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THEN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES PULLING AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOLER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NEAR THE COAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST IS BUILDING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SQUASH THE MARINE LAYER A BIT LOWER.
731 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 MARINE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL AND THE WEATHER DRY.
1111 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
734 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR.
730 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO WILL CLEAR THE STATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH COMPLEX SPINS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A REVERSE CLOUD LINE EXTENDING INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.