Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
327 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 A broad area of warm air advection along with passing short wave troughs will keep snow chances around this evening into tonight. There is a possibility that some freezing drizzle will mix in as precipitation moves east due to drying from the top down and a lack of ice crystal growth at the back end of the precipitation. This will move through Wisconsin tonight as a weak cold front moves through the region. Highs will likely reach the low 40s for most areas.
West, persistent stratus deck has kept temps in the lower 60s so far, but they should warm as the front comes through the in the next couple of showers. Much warmer temperatures expected west.
Quiet weather continues Monday, with southerly low-level flow and warm air advection boosting temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and southwest of the Missouri River, with the 40s elsewhere.
Some reduced visibilities in the 3 to 5 mile range could accompany this low stratus deck.
While the seabreeze has been kicking off and moving inland each day, there isn't much to accompany it, other than slightly cooler air. This is and has certainly helped to keep temperatures down a little cooler near the coast, but temperatures of near 90 degrees are anticipated inland. In fact, another even stronger ridge is expected to build in as the weekend approaches. High pressure remains in control with light winds of less than 15 knots and seas of 2 feet or less. High pressure remains in control for the next several days with hot and dry conditions.
Dry and mild weather continues through Sunday as weak high pressure remains. Cooler weather with valley rain and mountain snow returns tonight and continues through much of the coming week as a couple of upper level troughs or low pressure move down over the Pacific NW.
High pressure will bring quiet weather to the state on Monday, though skies will remain cloudy. For Monday, 1025 mb high pressure builds across the state and brings one of the few periods of quiet weather this week. As a result, have trended highs towards cooler guidance primarily in the mid 40s, except lower 50s south of I-70.
Surface and upper ridging will keep the area dry through the day. Flight conditions will drop to IFR conditions due to the lower ceilings and increasing coverage and intensity of rain/fog by 06-11Z. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 66 53 71 60 / 100 100 20 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 63 50 68 58 / 100 100 10 90 100 Oak Ridge, TN 52 63 49 67 57 / 100 100 10 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 59 46 64 54 / 100 100 20 80 100.
Temperatures across southern Iowa sit at or a few degrees above freezing, but sufficient evaporative cooling of the layer aloft has allowed for snow to make it to the surface without melting. As this continues to lift east we will see a gradual transition to rain as ice introduction is lost and warmer temperatures lift into the area.
147 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Precipitation will return tonight and Monday with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. Rain is expected for the vast majority of the region outside of wintry precipitation expected in the far northeastern CWA as well as in the ridge zones. Freezing rain still looks possible in the ridges particularly in Garrett county with persistent southeasterly flow but no advisories have been issued as any icing will be limited to elevated surfaces with warm surface and subsurface temperatures and have very little impact. Approaching transient high pressure will bring dry weather by late evening, although clouds will linger.
Subsidence in its wake is helping to trap moisture and low clouds across much of the area, and some lingering forcing along its southern periphery is keeping some light precipitation going over the western portion of the forecast area at the current time (looks to mainly be light snow, although its possible there are some pockets of freezing drizzle where moisture depth isn't sufficient for ice crystals). Guidance is in decent agreement that the southwest US upper trough will kick out and move through the region toward the end of the period, but at this point it mainly looks to impact locations to our south/east.
Monday morning a weak cold front will be pushing eastward across western Lake Superior before weakening over the U. Both along the front and then immediately behind it, model soundings show saturation to about 5 kft (which only end sup being as cold as -8 C or warmer) so some freezing drizzle is possible over mainly the west half in the morning. The drizzle could continue into early afternoon but surface temps will warm above freezing shortly after sunrise. Hedged a few degrees cooler than the NBM since cloud cover will be around much of the day with this moist upslope flow behind the front.
The next weather system can easily be seen on satellite spreading an arc of clouds inland across western Washington out in front of a cold front presently passing over Vancouver Island, BC. The cold front is forecast to quickly sweep across Idaho and Montana during the evening hours, bringing a quick burst of snow to most passes.
130 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Upper level trough currently tracking east into the mid mississippi river valley (per watervapor satellite imagery), producing an area of pcpn (main snow) north of it. That said, the GFS and EC do agree (at least for the time being) that bits of upper level energy will eject out of a west coast trough Tue, working east to across the local forecast area come Wed night. A cold front will work its way eastward and bring light snow/rain chances and reduced visibilities overnight, mainly at KRST. South winds will be a little breezy this afternoon with gusts between 15-25 kts, but will lessen tonight into Monday as high pressure builds in.
Mostly sunny, mild and dry conditions today as the region is under a weak upper level ridge.
347 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 700 mb frontogenetic band of showers along the highway 14 corridor is expected to sag south and east through the evening hours.
331 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Deep moisture associated with the upper trough exiting the Missouri Valley was east of the area early this afternoon though IR imagery indicates some deeper moisture remains in northern areas. Mixing increases somewhat Monday though from the southeast which keeps the lower levels moist.
Low temperatures range from the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado, mid 30s to mid 40s east of the border.
Overnight is also when an inverted trough will nose into eastern Kentucky, providing low level forcing for ascent. Showers will be ongoing at daybreak Monday with the inverted trough draped across eastern Kentucky and a cool front moving south of the Ohio River.
225 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 West to southwest flow aloft with considerable upper level high clouds will continue tonight into Monday in advance of an upper level impulse currently nearing the coast of Southern California. The high clouds may tend to narrow somewhat as the wave approaches late Monday. Downslope westerly flow with drier air in the lower atmosphere will dominate tonight and Monday with one exception. That exception involves a weak cold front edging southward with solutions agreeing will pass into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains and northern Rolling Plains near or before daybreak Monday before weakening further and washing out.
Deep mixing expected to occur over the plains, and with drier air aloft, expect dewpoints to fall to the lower teens. This will all support increased fire danger, especially as warmer temps in the 50s and 60s are expected and RH values drop below 15%. At this time, the highest threat looks to be along and just east of I-25, south of Pueblo.
1037 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Currently - Atlantic pressure ridge reaching westward across the Florida Peninsula is responsible for gentle to moderate breezes across our area. Stable conditions are in place due to ridging aloft maintaining a healthy ~810 mb inversion. Short Term Update - The modesty ridge across Florida will remain intact overnight. A ridge across Florida will maintain easterly gentle to moderate mostly easterly breezes across the Florida Keys through the overnight period.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday evening and especially overnight as an upper wave approaches, and a surface warm front lifts north across the area.
Cold upper trough off the northwest coast can be seen on satellite making steady progress toward our area. at 8 PM MDT the upper low was over the Queen Charlotte Islands and moving steadily down the BC coast. The surface cold front is forecast to pass through eastern Oregon midday Monday and western Idaho later Monday and Monday evening.
Temps tonight will drop to the lower to mid 60s with light and variable winds.
710 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Upper level trough currently tracking east into the mid mississippi river valley (per watervapor satellite imagery), producing an area of pcpn (main snow) north of it. That said, the GFS and EC do agree (at least for the time being) that bits of upper level energy will eject out of a west coast trough Tue, working east to across the local forecast area come Wed night. With this low level saturation comes a small chance for spotty light freezing drizzle and/or light snow.
627 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 700 mb frontogenetic band of showers along the highway 14 corridor is expected to sag south and east through the evening hours.
But still expect to see an expansion of echoes, especially towards daybreak, as weak low pressure tracks northeast across the area. Temperatures will likely be fairly steady overnight if not rise a bit a the low approaches. Upper dynamics work into the Appalachians Monday morning, followed by the surface trof. Although high pressure build in Monday night, it looks like it won't be strong enough to scour out the low levels, so kept skies mostly cloudy skies.
703 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Precipitation will return tonight and Monday with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. Area may end up experiencing just sprinkles until the lower atmosphere saturates. Rain is expected for the vast majority of the region outside of wintry precipitation expected in the far northeastern CWA as well as in the ridge zones. Freezing rain still looks possible in the ridges particularly in Garrett county with persistent southeasterly flow but no advisories have been issued as any icing will be limited to elevated surfaces with warm surface and subsurface temperatures and have very little impact. Approaching transient high pressure will bring dry weather by late evening, although clouds will linger.
An upper low offshore will spread rain showers across the Central Coast and South Bay today tonight into early tomorrow.
However, due to the front, increased instability with 60s dew points and highs ranging from around 70 to the lower 80s, a chance of showers and an isolated storm will remain in the forecast through the remainder of the daytime period.
/issued 225 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020/ West to southwest flow aloft with considerable upper level high clouds will continue tonight into Monday in advance of an upper level impulse currently nearing the coast of Southern California. The high clouds may tend to narrow somewhat as the wave approaches late Monday. Downslope westerly flow with drier air in the lower atmosphere will dominate tonight and Monday with one exception. That exception involves a weak cold front edging southward with solutions agreeing will pass into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains and northern Rolling Plains near or before daybreak Monday before weakening further and washing out.
This downslope will bring dry conditions and much warmer temperatures Monday afternoon.
Deep moisture associated with the upper trough exiting the Missouri Valley was east of the area early this afternoon though IR imagery indicates some deeper moisture remains in northern areas. Mixing increases somewhat Monday though from the southeast which keeps the lower levels moist.
A broad area of warm air advection along with passing short wave troughs will keep snow chances around this evening into tonight. There is a possibility that some freezing drizzle will mix in as precipitation moves east due to drying from the top down and a lack of ice crystal growth at the back end of the precipitation. This will move through Wisconsin tonight as a weak cold front moves through the region. Highs will likely reach the low 40s for most areas.
Upper dynamics work into the Appalachians Monday morning, followed by the surface trof. Although high pressure build in Monday night, it looks like it won't be strong enough to scour out the low levels, so kept skies mostly cloudy skies.
Brief ridging will through Monday leading to drier, but still cloudy conditions across the area.
817 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Wedge of high pressure to dominate the area thru Tue. The stationary front will return as a warm front, lifting across and north of the region late Tue night. A cold front, accompanied with showers, will sweep across the area and offshore Wed night. High pressure with drier air will overspread the Carolinas Thu and persist thru thr upcoming weekend.
There isn't much in the way of a thermal gradient here, but temperatures are a few degrees warmer on the southern side of this trough. A weak cold front will begin to move into the area this evening slowly ending the rainfall potential from north to south.
A few showers persist across central Louisiana in the wake of a warm frontal passage. /issued 319 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020/ Cool temperatures this morning have given way to upper 70s to near 80 in southeast Texas and southerly Louisiana as a warm front currently north of the I-10 corridor continues to a push northward this evening.
A weather system will bring showers to the western zones and cooler temperatures with gusty winds on Monday. Any snow is expected to be generally light and confined to the higher elevations.
957 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Earlier shower activity has all but ended, with the area now solidly in the warm sector to the south of a warm front that has lifted into Central LA. Consequently, much warmer temperatures and more humid conditions are expected tonight into MON morning. A few showers persist across central Louisiana in the wake of a warm frontal passage. /issued 319 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020/ Cool temperatures this morning have given way to upper 70s to near 80 in southeast Texas and southerly Louisiana as a warm front currently north of the I-10 corridor continues to a push northward this evening.
High pressure aloft will exit Utah ahead of the next storm system moving inland through California this evening.
215 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High clouds will stream across the area today just ahead of a dampening shrtwv trof moving across nrn NM while the westerly mid- level flow will promote warming thru amplification of the low-level thermal ridge. A weak front in assocn with aforementioned dampening shrtwv trof is expected early Tue AM, thus the slightly cooler temps. Fire weather concerns will ramp up this week, especially across the higher terrain and Southeast New Mexico, as windy and dry conditions return to the region along with unseasonably warm temperatures. The expectation is that Red Flag Warnings may be needed for portions of the area later this week as the warm, dry, windy weather continues and a low level thermal ridge takes up residence over the region.
250 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Frontal system exits today, followed by short lived high pressure tonight.
1159 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Upper level trough currently tracking east into the mid mississippi river valley (per watervapor satellite imagery), producing an area of pcpn (main snow) north of it. That said, the GFS and EC do agree (at least for the time being) that bits of upper level energy will eject out of a west coast trough Tue, working east to across the local forecast area come Wed night. Colder temperatures at the TAF sites would favor light snow and possibly some light freezing drizzle, though little if any impact expected from either given light amounts expected. For Monday, models have trended towards holding onto the lower clouds longer into the day.
240 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas with trof/warm front across Montana into Wyoming. Thermal profiles support highs near warmer end of guidance. As new upper trof digs into the Pacific Northwest, southwest impulse ejects into the central plains tonight.
140 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A wet period is expected through mid week, as a series of low pressure systems move east along a stalled front.
1219 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Precipitation will return tonight and Monday with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. Rain is expected for the vast majority of the region outside of wintry precipitation expected in the far northeastern CWA as well as in the ridge zones. Freezing rain still looks possible in the ridges particularly in Garrett county with persistent southeasterly flow but no advisories have been issued as any icing will be limited to elevated surfaces with warm surface and subsurface temperatures and have very little impact. Approaching transient high pressure will bring dry weather by late evening, although clouds will linger.
As a result, am expecting cloudy skies across the board today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s across the far north where a light snow cover exists.
Downstream, the flow across North America will remain split early in the period, but tend to consolidate during the latter part of the period as a large scale trough settles into the Canadian Archipelago. Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show Wisconsin positioned between high pressure over Quebec and a weak cold front located over the Dakotas. The snow may mix with spotty light freezing drizzle as models peel out mid- level moisture late. As a result, think any lingering light wintry precip (snow or freezing drizzle) will likely diminish in the morning. High temperatures will be warmer and range from the low to mid 40s.
/issued 957 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020/ Earlier shower activity has all but ended, with the area now solidly in the warm sector to the south of a warm front that has lifted into Central LA. Consequently, much warmer temperatures and more humid conditions are expected tonight into MON morning. A few showers persist across central Louisiana in the wake of a warm frontal passage. /issued 319 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020/ Cool temperatures this morning have given way to upper 70s to near 80 in southeast Texas and southerly Louisiana as a warm front currently north of the I-10 corridor continues to a push northward this evening.
Rain should begin to taper off by 00z, lingering mainly in the higher terrain. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 52 71 59 71 / 100 20 90 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 49 67 54 68 / 100 10 90 100 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 50 67 54 68 / 100 10 90 90 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 46 64 49 66 / 100 20 80 100 40.
Warm front lifts back to the north of Tues with activity limited to the far northern sections.
Temps were generally in the lower 40s across the area, increasing to near 50 at Joplin.
it should be warmer today due to low level southerly flow.
A couple areas of low pressure have developed along the boundary, one southeast of North Carolina and another near the Alabama/Mississippi border. The areas of low pressure will move off to the north and northeast today, lifting the boundary northward as a warm front. The northeasterly winds across southeast Georgia early this morning will abate as the warm front lifts northward. The low stratus and fog across the area will also lift northward through the day as the frontal boundary lifts northward. Well above normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the low to mid 80s across southeast Georgia, and the mid to upper 80s to around 90 degrees across northeast Florida.
1127 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Precipitation will return tonight and Monday with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. Rain is expected for the vast majority of the region outside of wintry precipitation expected in the far northeastern CWA as well as in the ridge zones. Freezing rain still looks possible in the ridges particularly in Garrett county with persistent southeasterly flow but no advisories have been issued as any icing will be limited to elevated surfaces with warm surface and subsurface temperatures and have very little impact. Approaching transient high pressure will bring dry weather by late evening, although clouds will linger.
349 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Warmer temperatures with breezy southerly winds today highlight the short term forecast period. With western and central North Dakota within the warm sector of the low today, low level warm air advection and southerly surface winds will warm temperatures well into the 50s for much of western North Dakota with 40s widespread further east (generally east and north of the Missouri River). Southerly flow continues overnight and low temperatures should stay mild with surface dew points reaching the low 30s in most areas.
A cold front swings through the region Monday delivering breezy winds and a chance of rain and snow showers.
Clouds should hold for most, if not all of Monday with highs primarily in the lower 40s.
1054 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 700 mb frontogenetic band of showers along the highway 14 corridor is expected to sag south and east through the evening hours.
IFR cigs and occasional MVFR to IFR vsbys also noted and, although some fluctuations in flight categories may occur through the morning, overall improvement to MVFR not expected until the 23/15-18Z window with the highest potential for low VFR cigs across northern/central terminals.
1234 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 05Z surface analysis showed a high pressure center over Bismarck/Jamestown. Quiet weather continues Monday, with southerly low-level flow and warm air advection boosting temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and southwest of the Missouri River, with the 40s elsewhere.
126 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 In the short term another very nice day, especially in areas close to the coast which will be several degrees cooler. The deep layer ridge that stretches from just south of Baja into the GOM will build over the Florida Peninsula late in the week.
Highs will once again warm into the low to mid 80s. Lows are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 60s.
309 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Frontal system exits today, followed by short lived high pressure tonight.
Snowfall amounts have generally been from a trace to a half inch (mainly on grassy surfaces given above freezing temperatures before its arrival). Some rain has also been mixed in, mainly when the precipitation was lighter due to the lack of deep moisture (basically where cooler cloud tops aren't evident in 10.
Temperatures will range widely today with highs north of the boundary in the mid 60s and those south of it will warm into the lower 80s. Going into tonight, WAA ramps up again and the low levels begin to moisten.
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Precipitation, mainly rain, will continue this morning with low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley. However, with high pressure still located over northern New England initially, southeast low-level flow will continue to promote modest cold-air damming, and therefore pockets of wintry precipitation across the far northern CWA and the ridges. Pockets of freezing rain are still possible in Garrett/eastern Tucker Counties, but any icing should be generally low impact and confined to elevated surfaces. With the New England high dislodging by afternoon, any threat of snow or freezing rain will end by midday as a result of the breakdown of southeast flow.