Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
/ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING.
Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning, with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. Kept slight chances of a rain shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today, compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand Island by 7 pm. A mostly cloudy sky will persist tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county. On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
544 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO MIDLAND. BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO TODAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES JUST TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL WARM FURTHER, REACHING THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
438 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT/AUS IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 13Z AT SAT AND 14Z-16Z NEAR AUS.
447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
344 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
333 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
319 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. If there are breaks in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer. Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5 low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards I-70 after midnight. By Sunday, the upper level low will be located just northeast of the area keeping showers limited to areas north of I-70 through the afternoon.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE INTRUSION OF THE COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of the area. In conjunction with a weak pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening. Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
AT UPPER LEVELS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA PER LATER WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING INTO REGION. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRENDS INDICATE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND PENINSULA TODAY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE RESULTING IN FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DUE TO DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
614 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON STILL REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF MID- WESTERN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND WARMER AIR. DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL.
326 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NOW CROSSING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
355 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 UPPER LOWS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS WEEKEND. BANDS OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND TODAY. A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST. READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY.
625 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
120 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NRN TX. THE LOW IS SHOWN TO HAVE MOVED INTO NWRN KS. SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ALONG THE NEB/KS STATE LINE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
406 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF/EAST PACIFIC AHEAD OF THE LOW. WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE DYNAMIC COOLING TO CONTINUE AROUND THE LOW.
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. IN A DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. DESPITE THE WARMER SECTOR OVER THE AREA. CLOSER TO 80 RATHER THAN THE LOW/MID 80S WE'VE EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS.
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY. COOL 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART.
422 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON STILL REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF MID- WESTERN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND WARMER AIR. DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MAIN ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE A WEAK CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE MONTANA AND IDAHO BORDER MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
127 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
339 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 Convection has shifted east of the forecast area this morning with the advancing cold front currently located across eastern OK. The front is pushed further southeastward tonight allowing for lower dewpoints and cooler overnight low temps.
150 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON STILL REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF MID- WESTERN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND WARMER AIR. DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA ON SUN.
The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast.
406 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN KANSAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH THRU NW ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN IS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
659 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER NORTH. PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. A TREND TOWARDS MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES A DRAMATIC SHIFT. ALONG WITH THIS COOLER TREND. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BIT AS WE TRANSITION TO THE COOLER PATTERN.
425 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016 AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY AND WILL ADD MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SRN VALLEYS AND THE SAN JUANS. THE LOW OPENS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT PRECIP FROM THE BOOK CLIFFS/ROAN/TAVAPUTS DOWN SOUTH. FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS USUAL.
A broad trough continues to linger over the majority of the United States as an embedded weak low circulates over the Northern Rockies. High pressure will steadily become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies on Sunday through the first part of the week. This ridge will cause a drying and warming trend for the region.
618 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER TODAY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC). RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. NOT QUITE SOLD ON THAT GIVEN LACK OF CLEARING THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL ERR ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING.
341 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016 WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY.
342 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC). RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING.
343 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA.
/TODAY/ A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF KANSAS TODAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS IOWA THIS WEEKEND MAKING IT INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT.
THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WAS KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE WEST AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH ARE SHOWN BY SOME OF THE MODELS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS IMPLIED ON SATELLITE LOOPS ARCING AROUND THE LOW FROM ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI THEN NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. TROWAL/DEFORMATION REGION IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW WILL CONTAIN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS IT IS ENVELOPED INTO BROADER TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK IS GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKES TROUGH.
330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this morning. prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and main southern stream speed max remains well south. Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted trough/upper low combine remain over the area.
1024 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016 CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA. /ISSUED 149 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016/ SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS OVER THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND SOME THIN CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THIS IS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
407 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA.
605 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
612 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
upper ridge will edge eastward towards the Rockies over the next 24 hours. Lee trof tonight should temperatures fairly mild along the I-25 corridor and southeast plains. Models show an upper ridge hanging on over the Western US through Friday.
In the meantime, cold front to move into northern portions of forecast area during the afternoon hours. Even though only expect dewpts to rise into the low to mid 50s, there will be enough moisture, steepening lapse rates and instability for storms to fire up along and ahead of front.
Clouds may not clear til the upper trof makes passage later tonight-tmrw morning. With the high hanging across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys into Friday night, the feed of moisture ahead of a fast moving/developing almost clipper like front dropping out of the mean nwly flow aloft means this 2ndary cold fropa, which will draw in the cooler/much drier air, will be a little moisture starved as it makes entry/passage. Even so, we'll carry a small pop across our northern half CWA, including slgt mention of thunder given strong dynamical lift associated with the jet/trof passage.
FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AXIS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
Lift just ahead of this trough axis is leading to increased mid/high cloud cover as well as some isolated shower development here across Central Alabama. Looking upstream, radar shows a couple of MCSs ongoing across the Ohio Valley and northern Texas in association with several ripples on the south/east side of the upper level longwave trough across the northern/central Plains. HiRes models show a line of showers/storms along a prefrontal trough entering the NW part of the forecast area after 21Z and then slowly weakening as it pushes farther southeast thru the evening. There's some disagreement in the models in how much convection will be associated with the actual cold front when it enters the area in the evening. Rain chances decrease from NW to SE overnight as the cold front pushes further into Central Alabama.
Lows are expected to drop only into the 50s(F) as warmer air is drawn northward into the region. A brief warming trend will continue Friday as a low level southwesterly flow enhances warm air advection into southwest and central Kansas ahead of an advancing cold front. Should see highs well up into the 70s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 80s(F) in south central Kansas where the front isn't expected to push through until late afternoon.
There will be one more mostly sunny and seasonally warm day Friday before an upper low brings much cooler and cloudier weather for the weekend.
358 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A cold front moving through northeast Arkansas will move through the rest of the forecast area late this afternoon and evening.
On Friday narrow upper trough from the Great Lakes region into the deep south to push weak cool front into the area with mainly a slight chance of precip ahead of the front mainly over northern and interior area in the afternoon. High pressure to begin to filter into the region late Friday as temps to hold around normal levels areawide.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southeast MAN to eastern ALTA. Cooler air was moving into the area. A much cooler pattern setting up. As for tonight temps, clouds should prevent a big fall but force of cold air alone should send temps down to near freezing in far nrn fcst area. Temps below freezing even with clouds and wind would pose more of a problem for sensitive plants/crops and if temps do look like they may fall to around 30 then headlines may be necessary for late tonight. Main colder air surge to arrive Friday as a vort max rotates back south around the departing upper low and moves into the RRV by 12z Friday.