Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
943 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE MS RIVER AND SHOULD START KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z.
AS THE TROF AXIS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAD BECOME CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BROAD AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A QUIET PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
A cold front trails that low through the Ohio River Valley and extends southwest into the Arklatex. This will open the door up for chilly temperatures as high pressure slides southeast across the central Plains and into northern Arkansas. Low temperatures over most areas will fall into the lower 50s. A beautiful end to the work week is then in store for the region as that high pressure slides to our southeast.
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 /06Z TAFS/ A cold front has moved through the area and associated convective activity has moved out of the area. A cold front has progressed south to near an Ozona, to Junction, to San Saba line. (Tonight and Thursday) At 2:30 PM, a cold front was located roughly along a line from Sterling City to just north of Brownwood, and is moving south at around 15 mph. For tomorrow, we will have highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s, so much cooler across the southern half of the area, and similar to conditions north of I-20 today. They all show a trough diving east southeast from the Pacific Northwest/western Canada. This trough will continue tracking east through the weekend, sending another cold front south towards Texas.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD AIDE IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVG LOWS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND WE WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW SPOTS EXPECTED TO TOUCH 50 OR UPPER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF KANSAS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS THIS EVENING AS THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. SKY SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH INITIATED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY. WHILE THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL AR HAS DEVELOPED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND SPREAD THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO AR. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S MAINLY. THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. A LARGE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
A LARGE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
1255 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
845 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
541 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2015 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPS. AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 30S/40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
1106 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 ONLY REAL ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHRA WITH THE UPPER LOW. BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GETTING INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. READINGS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN TN.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS WRAPPING BACK SOUTHWARD AROUND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONE IN NORTHEAST MN. WHILE THIS IS QUITE REMARKABLE FOR AUGUST 19 IT HAS BEEN COOLER IN THE PAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PLEASANT AUGUST DAY IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA WHILE THE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST TO JAMES BAY.
Temperatures should easily fall into the lower to middle 50s, with isolated lower readings. Temperatures will only be slightly warmer on Thursday despite the south winds, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMMENCED TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ADJUST THE PACKAGE LATER TONIGHT IF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS NOT MAINTAINED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
/issued 231 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ As of 220 PM CDT this afternoon, the much advertised cold front has progressed south of Midland/Odessa and is roughly along a line from Saint Lawrence to Crane to just north of Pecos. A couple isolated cells have popped up in the wake of the front, with increased convection expected to develop to the south, mainly across the southeastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area, where temperatures have already risen into the lower to middle 90s (compared to the upper 60s to lower 80s across southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin where the front has already passed).
915 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACROSS NW OHIO WILL SEE THE FRONT PASS BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP TO THE LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-THU NIGHT: CLOUDS/WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
WEAK COASTAL TROFFING (POSSIBLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION) AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS LED TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE SWRN ZONES PAST HOUR OR SO. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROF OVER MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO N TX AND SOUTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES REGION TO CEN LA THU AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG I-30 AND N/NE 5-10KTS WILL FILTER ACROSS I-20 OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. AND THE LOW 80S ALONG AND N OF I-20.
At 19z (2 pm CDT) Wednesday, the leading edge of the cold front stretched from west of Poplar Bluff Missouri to near Flora Illinois. The last surge of light to locally moderate precipitation will move in a 25 to 40 nm swath along and either side of the cold front, backing into the colder air over parts of Southern Illinois during the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. As the forcing from the upper low exits northeast of the area after midnight, the ageostrophic/baroclinic response will lessen markedly reducing precipation chances sharply as the trough axis passes through the area quickly.
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ TEMPERATURES RUNNING A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION.
COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED MIDDLE TN AND WILL HIT KCKV WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE MS RIVER AND SHOULD START KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z.
1003 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 OUR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A ACT. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING E ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE TRAILING END OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AND SHIFT E ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT /AND CLOSER TO THE 925-850MB TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX INTO SW AND SCNTRL AR/. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG I-30 AND N/NE 5-10KTS WILL FILTER ACROSS I-20 OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING.
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH INITIATED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY. WHILE THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL AR HAS DEVELOPED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND SPREAD THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO AR. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING.
923 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
A cold front has progressed south to near an Ozona, to Junction, to San Saba line. (Tonight and Thursday) At 2:30 PM, a cold front was located roughly along a line from Sterling City to just north of Brownwood, and is moving south at around 15 mph. For tomorrow, we will have highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s, so much cooler across the southern half of the area, and similar to conditions north of I-20 today. They all show a trough diving east southeast from the Pacific Northwest/western Canada. This trough will continue tracking east through the weekend, sending another cold front south towards Texas.
640 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE CONUS WAS A LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. DESPITE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT AS DRY. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DIGS SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY BEGIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
723 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
850 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S AND A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE UPPR 60S.
SURFACE OBS AND RADAR INDICATED THAT A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OR MID LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVERHEAD.
1048 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MORE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING BACK ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH COOLER NIGHT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
542 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AIR PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE EASTERN HALF REMAINS TOO COOL AND STABLE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LAST NIGHT'S ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
Lows are expected to be in the mid-70s, and slightly warmer at the coast.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
20Z ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MN HAS MOVED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY.
Deep upper trough extending from MN through eastern KS into OK will continue tracking east tonight. Water vapor imagery shows a weak vorticity max dropping down the back side of the trough across western IA.
1018 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW ONLY REAL ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHRA WITH THE UPPER LOW. BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GETTING INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. READINGS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR HIGHWAY 90 OVERNIGHT. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AREA AND WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO THE HILL COUNTRY AREA.
932 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS HOUR, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FIRING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE WARM, HUMID & UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
1000 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2015 RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS GENERALLY FROM KMCK TO KGLD COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MVFR VIS AND CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT TO THE NW GETS CLOSER. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
LEADING TO A MUCH WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. RATHER QUIET BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROF OVER MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO N TX AND SOUTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES REGION TO CEN LA THU AFTERNOON.
828 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA FROM TEMPLE TO OZONA. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR HIGHWAY 90 OVERNIGHT. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AREA AND WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO THE HILL COUNTRY AREA.
1238 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVERNIGHT. AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES BY THE EVENING.
1155 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LEAVING BEHIND SOME LOW CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALSO COVER THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER EAST TEXAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT DEPARTING UPPER LOW. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.
Weak high pressure will continue to prevail at the surface into mid-week as an upper level low churns along the Texas and Louisiana gulf coast region.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CONUS REMAINS A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL REGION OF TEXAS. AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE LATEST SET OF MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE COUNTERPART WILL DRAW A DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING/ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELUCTANT TO GIVE WAY BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN LINE WITH LATEST BLEND OF WARMER MAV/COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF LATE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DROPS FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CANADA.
THE RIDGE IS SET TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH WESTERN NEB/CENTRAL SD. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH OK. AND WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE. MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN AB/SASK. 850MB MOISTURE WAS MAKING A SLOW RETURN AROND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN US. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A PASSING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
DOES A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS TRANSLATE TO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AS WELL AS SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE RADAR IS DEPICTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID-WEEK AS CUT-OFF LOW OPENS AND PHASES WITH NEXT EASTWARD ADVANCING TROF WITH AREA ONCE AGAIN COMING UNDER A DRY NORTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEPENING EAST CONUS TROF AND AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE.
856 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AVIATION SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY.
An extension of the Desert Southwest ridge axis will prevail across western Kansas today. lee troughing will continue.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A PASSING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE CENTER OF BROAD 500 MB LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT UP THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD EXIST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA.
1136 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY.
Light winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 60s and upper 50s. Patchy ground fog has developed mainly in the low lying areas since the winds just above the surface remain around 15 kts. High temperatures will range from the low 80s in eastern KS to the mid 80s in central KS.
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN U. WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE. AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING.
714 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY TOWARD THE MID OHIO VALLEY. WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING LATE TONIGHT.