Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the western Great Lakes region, with high pressure centered over the northern and central high Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure system over the Great Lakes, with ridge now centered over the Rockies. Skies are sunny across the area with temps mostly in the 40s, some 30s across the higher Black Hills. Ridge will shift east across the region over the next couple of days, with warm air returning. Winds will turn to a southerly direction late today and tonight after high pressure moves southeast of the region.
249 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Early this morning, cloudy skies begun to give way to clear skies as high pressure moved into the area. Temperatures across the area ranged from the lower 30s across the north to the upper 30s across the south. Quiet weather day as high pressure will drive the sensible weather. Discussion: High pressure continues to build into the area in the short term as quiet weather is expected. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, however there is a still a chance of reaching near 50 degrees in the far southwest. Tonight, temperatures will dip below freezing again as clear skies are expected.
206 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Moderate to heavy snow will end from west to east this evening as low pressure moves quickly away. Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb troughs on both coasts and a broad amplified 500 mb ridge across the central U. This ridge gradually broadens and flattens with time for this forecast period over the area through 12z Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the west coast 12z Mon with a broad 500 mb ridge across the sern U. and troughing in the Canadian and northern Rockies. border with troughing lingering in the Pacific NW. Troughing then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed with more troughing into the northern plains 12z Thu. This troughing then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri.
Today Through Saturday Night Dry air continues to filter into the state as NWRLY winds continue to bring cooler and drier air into the region. with high pressure to the NW of AR.
With the dry air in place tonight, temperatures should fall off rather quickly and stayed closer to the cooler MAV/MET guidance compared to the NBM, especially in the BVO/FYV areas and across far southeast Oklahoma.
Tonight will see lows in the low to mid 30s with clear skies persisting in this very dry airmass. Friday will again be sunny, but cooler with highs in the low to mid 50s. Return flow behind high pressure will lead to highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with winds of 10-20 mph gusting to 20-30 mph on Saturday.
After a cold day and night, the weekend will bring dry and much warmer conditions to central Indiana.
Much drier air was pushing south as well given the deep tropospheric subsidence and downslope component of the lower tropospheric winds. Tonight, winds will slacken off substantially as low level ridging moves across western kansas. The period of light winds will not last all that long as a new leeside trough develops by early Friday. Fairly breezy south-southwest winds overnight Friday Night into Saturday morning will lead to a fairly mild night (by early March standards) with lows only down into the lower to perhaps mid 40s.
/issued 151 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020/ As the upper trough that brought the rain moves off to the east a high pressure ridge will build in from the west. A weak trough hits the West Coast Saturday then weakens as it rolls over the top of the ridge.
Temperatures and winds were updated based on current trends with the approaching cold front from the west. Behind the front, northwest flow is still expected to create upslope precipitation in the higher terrain of far east Tennessee and southwest Virginia the second half of the night. Up to an inch could accumulate in the highest mountain peaks by sunrise, but the greatest upslope snow is still expected during the day on Friday. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 31 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 29 52 30 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 28 53 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 27 48 25 60 / 40 20 0 0 0 TN.
Sub-freezing temperatures combined with the fog may lead to slick spots on area roadways, mainly across the James River Valley. Have gone closer to the HRRR for dewpoints, which have been on the low range, and verified better in the southwest. The period opens with some much above normal warm air in place over the CWA, while an upper level ridge of high pressure is beginning to flatten/transition eastward.
/issued 345 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/ WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the wrn/central CONUS, chasing a trough exiting the MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front was invading the Permian Basin from the northeast, and will knock highs down below normal thru the weekend. As the ridge moves east today, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will fall under SW flow aloft.
Saturday continues to look very warm, with temperatures skyrocketing 20 to 25 degrees above normal under the influence of a robust upper level ridge. Areas along the Missouri River in south central and southeast SD could even get into the low 70s. Snow-covered portions of southwest Minnesota remain cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Moisture will increase tonight and precipitation is expected to focus along a slow moving cold front. Snow levels will lower in northwest Montana during Saturday as the cold front transitions through the area.
449 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Amplified upper level longwave ridge works across the upper mississippi river valley this weekend.
As the upper level low swings through this morning there could be a few sprinkles or flurries across the Northeast Cumberland Plateau.
Another pleasant day is in store for South Texas today with temperatures in the 70s and dry conditions as the area remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at the surface. Upper flow will become more zonal on Saturday as the ridge shifts to the east, with a weak disturbance tracking just west of the area late tonight into Saturday. Temperatures will cool to the mid 40s and lower 50s overnight, before warming up only into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on Saturday due to the increased cloud cover.
Saturday continues to look dry, but I did raise temperatures up a bit toward the warmer MAV numbers, given recent model performances of similar recent days.
High pressure aloft will result in dry conditions and warmer temperatures through Saturday.
Gusty northwest to north winds will gradually lighten as high pressure develops over the area today. This is due to an upper level ridge that will settle over the area into the weekend. Winds will increase from the south on the backside of the high pressure system Saturday, but gusts will only be 20 to 30 mph.
All models show a high amplitude upper level ridge axis lifting north towards the United State/Canada border while slowly translating east this weekend.
An intensifying area of low pressure offshore of the Southeast United States this morning will lift northeastward, pulling an attendent cold front through are entire region from northwest to southeast this morning until late this afternoon. With that, despite mid and upper level ascent remaining north of our region, increasing moisture below 700 mb combined with low level confluence associated with the aforementioned cold front should allow a broken band of showers to pass through the island chain by early this afternoon. In wake of the cold front, breezy to windy conditions can be expected, with much cooler air anticipated by early Saturday morning.
GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an upper level trough moving into the Eastern United States. Meanwhile, surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from the Ohio Valley back through Eastern Tennessee, Northern Alabama, and into Southern Mississippi and Louisiana. Consequently, a potential for elevated fire danger will exist across the Mid-South with the low relative humidity, 20 ft winds averaging at least 10 mph and 10 hour fuel moisture values around 7-8 percent.
The cold front is currently moving through the area with a few light showers in place across the Tampa Bay area along the boundary. This will continue to push through the area through the early morning hours, with cooler and drier air moving in through the day as high pressure builds and clearing out the clouds. Clear tonight with continued CAA will allow for lows to fall into the upper 30s north, and in the lower to mid 40s inland to around 50 coastal central and south. Saturday will again be clear with highs reaching into the 60s as high pressure settles into the SE US.
Much Cooler Tonight Continuing Through the Weekend. Cold front still pushing through the southern counties, but will exit the area within the next hour of two. Overnight lows will be much cooler with L-M40s over much of the interior and Volusia coast with M-U40s to L50s along the immediate coast and adjacent barrier islands southward. Winds combined with the low temps late in the night may force lowest wind chill readings to near U30s to L40s for a short time near sunrise in portions of north Lake and inland Volusia counties. Short window of time where Red flag conditions could be met this afternoon across Volusia/Orange/Seminole with ERC criteria met and RH dipping into the low 30s.
225 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Upper ridge will be over Montana today. Warm temperatures will continue in most areas on Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through the area Saturday Night. Models are indicating that it will be a mix of sleet, snow, rain, and possibly freezing rain.
321 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 A couple of mild days ahead with mid level ridging taking hold. Heights fall Saturday night and this pushes a cold front into the area. Energy and moisture will combine for a chance of rain and snow showers, with the best chance being over the higher terrain.
A cold front will move slowly southward through the region on Saturday, bringing with it scattered rain and snow showers.
Mild afternoon temperatures are on tap today and SAT, with SAT morning the coldest of this forecast period as lows drop into the mid/upper 30s across Central LA and the lower 40s S of the I-10 corridor.
324 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Clear skies and breezy northerly winds are expected today as a reinforcing cold front tracks from north to south across the CWA early this morning. Expect similar to slightly cooler highs to yesterday, maxing out generally in the mid 60s. Went with MAV temps for lows based on NBM missing colder lows with the most recent strong cold front.
409 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 The axis of the upper ridge is currently centered over the region and will continue moving eastward today. Warm advection under the ridge has forced temperatures to run well above normal and that will hold true today and tomorrow. The 700 mb temperatures might rise a few degrees compared to yesterday, so the highs were adjusted accordingly. High clouds are beginning to spill over the ridge and they span over most the western CONUS. Tomorrow a midlevel trough will come ashore the Pacific coast stretching from Oregon down to California. Ahead of this trough winds are expected to increase and advect moisture in from the west. In response to this the models are developing afternoon convection in the higher elevations.
521 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 High pressure will move towards the state later this afternoon and overnight tonight. Today Through Saturday Night Dry air continues to filter into the state as NWRLY winds continue to bring cooler and drier air into the region. with high pressure to the NW of AR.
Another quiet weather day is on tap with the aforementioned ridge in place.
The short term forecast looks dry as an upper level ridge moves over the Rockies and through the Central Plains by tomorrow morning. High pressure at the surface will ooze eastward with lee troughing across eastern Colorado bringing southerly winds to western Kansas.
416 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Quiet and pleasant weather is expected today across the CWA as a mid to upper level ridge develops overhead. The low to mid levels have very little moisture leading so no precipitation will fall. The ridge of high pressure will shift into the central plains on Saturday replaced by a moderate southwest flow pattern over Colorado.
Mid level ridging will prevail over the area through the next 36 hours. However, reinforcing Plains high pressure will move into the area on Friday allowing light north winds to become northeast later this morning into the afternoon.
Early this morning, cloudy skies begun to give way to clear skies as high pressure moved into the area. Temperatures across the area ranged from the lower 30s across the north to the upper 30s across the south. Quiet weather day as high pressure will drive the sensible weather. Discussion: High pressure continues to build into the area in the short term as quiet weather is expected. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, however there is a still a chance of reaching near 50 degrees in the far southwest. Tonight, temperatures will dip below freezing again as clear skies are expected.
Dry, clear, and relatively benign weather remains in store for SE Texas in the immediate term with upper ridging continuing to hold over the central CONUS. The passage of a weak cold front this morning will provide a slight increase to surface wind speeds across most areas this morning, with winds diminishing and shifting to the northeast by the afternoon. Look for slightly lower afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s as a result. Saturday night the Nor'easter pulls away as strengthening high pressure builds into the eastern states and extends down into E TX.
Precip chances return Saturday with accumulating snow and possible chain controls across the higher elevations. High clouds are increasing across the area as the trough over the eastern Pacific approaches. Upper ridge will continue to shift east today with the approach of the trough. The trough will move through NorCal Saturday.
637 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Bumped up today's winds with this morning's trend of the surface pressure gradient, making the higher end winds sustained 15-25 kts through this afternoon. This morning, a warm front will slide eastward across the state as a mid-level ridge builds from the west. Snow packed areas of the James River valley will stay relatively cooler. Impressive upper level ridging continues on Saturday, as depicted by the 00Z NAEFS run placing 500mb heights around the 90th-99th climatological percentile Friday through Saturday. The ridge slowly breaks down by late Saturday with a cold front moving through overnight.
345 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the wrn/central CONUS, chasing a trough exiting the MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front was invading the Permian Basin from the northeast, and will knock highs down below normal thru the weekend. As the ridge moves east today, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will fall under SW flow aloft.
342 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 This morning, a warm front will slide eastward across the state as a mid-level ridge builds from the west. Snow packed areas of the James River valley will stay relatively cooler. Impressive upper level ridging continues on Saturday, as depicted by the 00Z NAEFS run placing 500mb heights around the 90th-99th climatological percentile Friday through Saturday. The ridge slowly breaks down by late Saturday with a cold front moving through overnight.
253 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 The axis of the upper ridge is currently centered over the region and will continue moving eastward today. Warm advection under the ridge has forced temperatures to run well above normal and that will hold true today and tomorrow. The 700 mb temperatures might rise a few degrees compared to yesterday, so the highs were adjusted accordingly. High clouds are beginning to spill over the ridge and they span over most the western CONUS. Tomorrow a midlevel trough will come ashore the Pacific coast stretching from Oregon down to California. Ahead of this trough winds are expected to increase and advect moisture in from the west. In response to this the models are developing afternoon convection in the higher elevations.
352 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Water vapor shows large ridge building through the western CONUS. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with lee trof advancing into eastern MT/WY. Dry and much warmer weather will be the story both today and Saturday, with main forecast concerns centered around fire weather (see fire weather discussion below). Lee trof will advance through much of the CWFA today, allowing temps to climb well into the 60s at most plains locations. Thermal ridge then peaks over the CWFA on Saturday, with plenty of highs in the 70s east/south of the Black Hills. Gusty southwest winds may continue into the night ahead of approaching cold front.
A few gusts to 15-20 kts are possible this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north. Mid level ridging will prevail over the area through the next 36 hours. However, reinforcing Plains high pressure will move into the area on Friday allowing light north winds to become northeast later this morning into the afternoon.
400 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Today and Tonight: A dry cold front will continue moving through the area this morning serving to scour out the leftover moisture in the boundary layer. This will set the stage for strong radiational cooling tonight and the possibility of widespread frost as minimums fall into the low to mid 30s.
709 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 The cold front is currently on the south side of the Tampa Bay region with a few light patches of rain in advance of it and low level cloudiness trailing in it's wake. with gradual clearing of the lower clouds. A secondary dry cold front traverses the state overnight with reinforcing cool and dry air. A cold front is pushing through the southern terminals with -RA and LCL IFR but these should clear by 13Z or so. An exiting front and building high pressure will maintain robust to strong winds with a small craft advisory on the Gulf and a small craft exercise caution for bay and harbor waters. The high begins to slide east during the weekend with winds veering and diminishing.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: A dry cold front will continue moving through the area this morning serving to scour out the leftover moisture in the boundary layer. This will set the stage for strong radiational cooling tonight and the possibility of widespread frost as minimums fall into the low to mid 30s.
Thereafter, high pressure is again expected to return until about next Friday. Gusty winds are also expected as the front passes through the region, particularly over ridgelines and across the East Side.
245 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Chilly high pressure will build across the region through the weekend. Cold air aloft associated with the strong mid/upper trough will move over the region this afternoon. However, due to the drying in the lower levels with increasing temperature/dew point spreads, much of the showers will not reach the ground (virga). Lows tonight will fall into the lower to mid 30s. The airmass supports highs in the low-mid 50s and lows Saturday night in the mid-upr 20s, so cooler-than-normal in the wake of the departing trough.
Lee troughing will result in a rather tight pressure gradient by Saturday afternoon.
High pressure will build across the Northland today and tonight. Mostly sunny skies are expected, and with the high sun angle and warm air advection aloft, should yield warm temperatures in the low 30s in coastal sections of the eastern Arrowhead to the low 40s for portions of north-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Warmer day on tap for Saturday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 30s near Grand Marais and areas inland to the upper 40s and low 50s for northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will move east of the region Saturday night as low pressure develops over the Northern Plains ahead of a mid-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies.
Took a blend of the warmer mav/cooler met guidance for lows tonight.
Thermal trough will also be overhead sending lows down to around the mid teens in outlying areas to low 20s in the more urban areas. Plenty of sunshine with building mid level heights and warmer return flow around departing high pressure will rebound highs nicely to the mid 40s Saturday.
1059 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Mostly sunny skies and breezy south winds bringing in much warmer air today. Sub-freezing temperatures combined with the fog may lead to slick spots on area roadways, mainly across the James River Valley. Have gone closer to the HRRR for dewpoints, which have been on the low range, and verified better in the southwest. The period opens with some much above normal warm air in place over the CWA, while an upper level ridge of high pressure is beginning to flatten/transition eastward.
Bumped up today's winds with this morning's trend of the surface pressure gradient, making the higher end winds sustained 15-25 kts through this afternoon. This morning, a warm front will slide eastward across the state as a mid-level ridge builds from the west. Snow packed areas of the James River valley will stay relatively cooler. Impressive upper level ridging continues on Saturday, as depicted by the 00Z NAEFS run placing 500mb heights around the 90th-99th climatological percentile Friday through Saturday. The ridge slowly breaks down by late Saturday with a cold front moving through overnight.
/Now through Saturday Night/ Very dry lower tropospheric conditions and northerly breezes today in the wake last night's cold front are leading to efficient boundary layer mixing and, therefore, temperatures warming into the pleasant mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow will feature a continued slow increase in high cirrus clouds, but in general, expect a fair amount of sun with southeast winds helping temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s. Tomorrow night will not be nearly so ideal for radiational cooling as southerly flow in the lower levels starts to pick up as high pressure departs farther to the east.
Warmer Saturday with fire weather concerns. Transient mid-level ridge expected to move east of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this evening, with southwest flow then prevailing. Low temperatures tonight expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with all sections remaining above freezing, thanks to winds remaining in the 10 to 15 MPH range most of the night.
The low level wind fields is dominated by southwesterly downsloping winds for much of the CWA. Quiet and pleasant weather is expected today across the CWA as a mid to upper level ridge develops overhead. The low to mid levels have very little moisture leading so no precipitation will fall. The ridge of high pressure will shift into the central plains on Saturday replaced by a moderate southwest flow pattern over Colorado.
326 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 AVIATION section updated High pressure will build into the area overnight, clearing skies and allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s. Upper level ridging will follow through the weekend, which will steadily warm temperatures and lead to dry weather. Skies will begin to clear out overnight as the high begins to work into the area. Expect temps to get down into the low to mid 20s across the area. The short term will be dry under the influence of surface and upper level high pressure through the weekend.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A dry cold front will continue moving through the area this morning serving to scour out the leftover moisture in the boundary layer. This will set the stage for strong radiational cooling tonight and the possibility of widespread frost as minimums fall into the low to mid 30s.
121 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Upper ridge will slowly translate eastward over the weekend.