Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
632 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Now through Friday) Mid-level ridging centered over Texas will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate east to northeast winds across the region today into Friday. Both the GFS/ECMWF hint at some vorticity sliding along the southeastern side of the ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. An inverted mid-level trough will track westward over the Bay of Campeche tonight and Friday. Highs today and Friday will range from the 80s at the beaches, the lower 90s near the coast and the mid to upper 90s farther inland.
609 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today across the area with rain mainly south of a Kansas City to Sedalia line. - Additional rain chances move into the area tonight through Friday with continued cooler than normal temperatures. Further south, winds become southerly behind a warm front and that will allow our southern zones warm into the lower 70s.
608 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front is dropping south across the South Plains early this morning, and will settle into West Central Texas today. May see slightly cooler temperatures across the area north of I-20 this afternoon, but little effect elsewhere. Still looking at highs in the low to mid 90s.
Increasing cloud cover as cold front moves through today, along with scattered showers from late morning to early afternoon. Cold front moves through the area late this morning and early afternoon. The large scale ascent with the associated upper trough will be across the northeast and mid-atlantic with very limited support or the area. Cooler and drier Friday after passage of a cold front.
620 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday Night) The Autumn Equinox will see unseasonably warm weather as a mid to upper level ridge continues to linger over Texas. Subsidence from the ridge and dry air aloft will suppress convective development during the day, keeping rain out of the forecast. Friday will see a slight weakening in the aforementioned upper level ridge with lower heights and reduced subsidence.
The upper level ridge will remain in place over Texas today and tonight, promoting dry and warm conditions. By Friday, the southern periphery of the ridge will begin to degrade as a mid level inverted trough approaches the region from the south. With drier conditions and increased subsidence, mostly clear to clear skies will lead to warmer temperatures today and tomorrow, ranging from the lower 90s near the coast to the upper 90s across the Brush Country.
Main concern with the forecast for today is where the low clouds will hang during the day and where we will see some clearing as this will affect the high temperatures. CAM models are all showing the low clouds should hang in place all day for most of southwest Kansas with the exception of the Oklahoma border counties.
1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday Night) The Autumn Equinox will see unseasonably warm weather as a mid to upper level ridge continues to linger over Texas. Subsidence from the ridge and dry air aloft will suppress convective development during the day, keeping rain out of the forecast. Friday will see a slight weakening in the aforementioned upper level ridge with lower heights and reduced subsidence.
218 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The flow through the column is all from the cooler direction today with breezy north winds at the surface and northwest flow aloft. An upper ridge axis over the central/high plains gives way to troughing over the northeast, and the surface cold front that dropped our temperatures 25-30 degrees from yesterday is well into the deep south.
Cold front currently draped over TN and is making its way towards the forecast area. (Today through Friday) High pressure over the area has weakened as a cold front is nearing the area from the North. This cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass with low temps expected in the 50s to lower 60s Friday morning.
1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front is dropping south across the South Plains early this morning, and will settle into West Central Texas today. May see slightly cooler temperatures across the area north of I-20 this afternoon, but little effect elsewhere. Still looking at highs in the low to mid 90s.
1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) As depicted by KOHX radar during these early morning hours, surface cold front has pushed into northwest portions of mid state region. Surface cold front will continue progressing southeastward as remainder of early morning hours progress. As apex of above mentioned surface ridging builds southeastward into central Great Lakes Region by shortly after sunrise on Friday, with its broad influences being felt as far south as the deep south, lows tonight will be quite seasonably cool.
For the morning period, favored slightly warmer guidance models (heavily leaned toward NBM based) due to sufficient warming. Current sounding observations and model guidance support mixing in the lower levels. /CRJ/ The persistent high pressure just west of the ArkLaMiss region will continue to create above normal temperatures across the forecast area. With high pressure becoming less intense as a front approaches from the north, highs reaching the lower 100s will be more isolated, but still possible for some areas in the Delta. By this evening, a broad upper trough with a low pressure near the Great Lakes region will allow for a surface front to impact the region overnight. Overnight lows are expected to range in the lower to middle 60s north of I-20, while areas along and south of I-20 dip into the middle to upper 60s.
This lee-side trough will then move across the Panhandles on Friday causing winds to increase into the 15 to 25 mph range with higher gusts.
A weak cold front will move across the area this evening and then offshore late tonight. /12 (Now through Friday) An upper level ridge centered over Texas remains in control as northwesterly flow funnels drier air into the local area. This upper subsidence combined with the drier and slightly cooler air in the wake of the surface boundary will allow for rain free conditions as we close out the work week. Temperatures will be hot again today due to the influence of the upper ridge with highs likely soaring into the upper 90s. Given the approaching boundary leading to compressional warming and overall subsidence, this tends to push temperatures even higher and as a result leaned on the higher end of guidance for highs.
1028 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal today and about 15 degrees cooler than normal on Friday following yesterday's cold front.
(Tonight) A cold front is currently pushing into the Tennessee Valley, bringing with it a cooler air mass and some broken decks of mid- level clouds filtering in along/behind this boundary. The main story will continue to be the push of cooler and drier air which will bring an end to the unseasonably warm weather we've been experiencing of late. Temperatures will likely peak in the mid 80s this afternoon and drop into the low to mid 50s by early Friday morning -- about 15 degrees lower than this morning.
A low pressure system is moving through western Montana this afternoon.
1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) An east to west oriented cold front will quickly surge south through the state today. This will lead to beautiful conditions on Friday with sunny skies, minimum relative humidity below 40%, and highs ranging from the lower 80s north to mid 80s south. 86/Martin Now that Fall is here, we will see several cold fronts move through during the extended.
1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 A refreshing change in air mass has been ushered in by yesterday's cold front, which as of 2AM was nearing Memphis, TN. We expect some showers, mainly in the northern part of the forecast area as this trough axis swings by. But moisture will be limited as this wave is largely continuing with its remnant Pacific moisture, with Gulf Moisture not having enough time to link up with it after the recent cold front. Kimble Low level flow shifts southwesterly ahead of the cold front associated with the upper trough. This will bring warmer temperatures back into the region, warming temperatures back into the 80s. But this won't last very long, as the cold front brings the cooler air back in pretty quickly.
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today across the area with rain mainly south of a Kansas City to Sedalia line. - Additional rain chances move into the area tonight through Friday with continued cooler than normal temperatures. Further south, winds become southerly behind a warm front and that will allow our southern zones warm into the lower 70s.
338 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Issued 338 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure will move overhead tonight, shifting east of the area Friday into Friday night as low pressure approaches from the west. There will be a lot of dry air in the low and mid levels tomorrow, so it will likely take a while for the atmosphere to moisten up enough for showers.
146 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Increasing winds and cooler temperatures follow a front this afternoon into this evening.
Cooler with some lingering breezy winds across the north, although much lighter than yesterday.
The clouds will be associated with a trough arriving over the Central Plains that will bring low chances for showers Friday night. The chance for rain Friday night is rather murky due to the main trough passing through Minnesota, and a weak warm air advection wing passing through the Ohio River Valley.
335 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (This evening through Friday) A cold front is approaching north Georgia where it will bring enhanced cloud coverage and gusty winds to north and central Georgia. Luckily, this cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass with low temperatures in the 50s along and north of I-20 and the 60s across areas to the south.
1001 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Issued 1001 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022) Quiet weather is expected today as high pressure continues to build into the area. DDV (Issued 355 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022) Today through Friday: Pressure heights will gradually increase and the pressure gradient weaken as an upper level ridge moves over the area. With high pressure building into the area tonight winds will become light and skies will be clear. High pressure will move east of the area Friday bringing the return of southerly flow.
(This evening through Friday) The morning cold front has kept temps on the cool side with mesonet stations reporting temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s as of noon. Temps could, however, be a few degrees cooler than what is forecasted in some areas if winds drop to near calm during the early morning hours. The upper high over the region will continue to dominate tomorrow but will be weakened slightly as the upper low currently over the Inter Mountain West pushes eastward towards the Northern Plains. The upper high will keep things warm and dry with highs reaching into the low/mid 90s.
GOES-16 multispectral RGB day cloud phase band was showing the low stratus being fairly well maintained in the upslope environment across all of western Kansas and across the Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandle into se Colorado. Also this will probably be a bust of temperatures across the southwest as the 2 pm temperatures are fairly uniforms across the entire forecast area in the low to mid 50s.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures tonight. Progressive mid-level pattern in the upper half of the CONUS for this weekend while anticyclone remains anchored in the southern Great Plains. A dry and cooler airmass is being advected by the northerly breeze in the wake of the frontal passage. Temperatures so far have ranged from the low 70s in southern Indiana to the higher 70s in southern Kentucky, where a few sporadic spots could reach 80 degrees given adequate insolation and good mixing.
113 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front has entered northern Oklahoma and will continue to progress southward through the night into the morning. Farther south, however, cooling will not be as strong and skies will remain mostly clear under the influence of the upper high over central Texas.
Wraparound rain showers from the upper level low in Northern Idaho and Western Montana are poised to bring showers to Baker County, OR and the West Central and Boise Mountains today. Breezy northwest winds and below normal temperatures from the exiting upper level low today will help bring in the Fall Equinox. A building ridge will bring dry conditions and warm up temperatures back to slightly above normal this weekend.
(Tonight through Friday night) Broad subtropical ridging will remain in control of our weather, with mostly sunny skies and seasonally warm high temperatures continuing today and tomorrow. A stalled, weak cold front just to our north will gradually wash out and never reach south-central TX.
1051 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the eastern Dakotas. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over eastern OR, slowly moving eastward. Upper low the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper low will move into central MT as low pressure develops in response over north-central WY. Left exit region of 110kt jet streak ahead of upper low will promote a northeast-moving band of 800-600mb theta-e advection resulting in broken area of showers/isolated TS this morning/early afternoon hours.
Cooler and drier air follows cold frontal passage for this evening and Friday. Increased cloud cover continues to move through this afternoon associated with the passage of the cold front across our region. Upper level northwesterly flow brings cooler and drier air to fill in behind the front for Thursday night and Friday. Pleasant and dry conditions expected for Friday--highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s across much of the area will feel much more like Fall than the past several days.
1203 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front was making its way through the region early this morning. The cold front will result in lower thickness values for today and cooler easterly winds. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon with this front. Otherwise, not much will be different in the upper pattern locally with an upper ridge centered over central Texas.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow/ A weak cold front has settled over North Texas this morning bringing little to no effect to our sensible weather other than a wind shift to the north. Unfortunately, the strong upper level high pressure will continue to dominate our weather tomorrow resulting in another hot day.
Welcome to the Fall Equinox! A cut-off low pressure system will continue to spin over west-central Montana this afternoon, and will slowly migrate northeastward into central Montana this evening. The low has brought much needed soaking rainfall to most of the Northern Rockies today, and will continue as moisture is wrapped around the western periphery of the low. The low will be exiting the region during the overnight hours tonight, and with the additional moisture and partially clearing skies, locally dense fog and/or stratus is expected to develop by Friday morning across western Montana and north-central Idaho.
There were some lingering pockets of fog in the higher elevation mountain valleys this morning but those burned off by late-morning. As of 1300 PDT, temperatures are trending 5-15 degrees warmer, and relative humidity is generally trending 20-40 percent drier than this time yesterday. As the upper level low continues to shift off to our northeast, high pressure will start to build back into the region over the next several days.
This has allowed temperatures (in the upper-50s/low-60s) to run some 30-40 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Afternoon HIs in the low to mid-80s are expected across much of the OKC metro and surrounding areas. Towards the Red River Valley, situated further beneath a Southern Plains upper-level ridge, plentiful insolation has allowed temperatures to once again climb into the upper-90s, with isolated 100s also noted in the far southeast CWA.
Morning rainfall wrapping into the region from an upper level low in western Montana has largely transpired as anticipated. The center of the low will slowly continue to move off to the east through the afternoon. Ridging that will build in as the low exits should result in a decreasing trend in precipitation through the late afternoon hours today. /SVH 18Z TAFs: Rain wrapping in around a low pressure system centered over western Montana will result in marginal VFR ceilings down the Purcell Trench in the Northern Panhandle and near DEW to SFF. The low will slowly pull away to the east through the afternoon with ceilings expected to improve and rainfall chances decreasing.
1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Now through Friday) Mid-level ridging centered over Texas will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate east to northeast winds across the region today into Friday. Both the GFS/ECMWF hint at some vorticity sliding along the southeastern side of the ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. An inverted mid-level trough will track westward over the Bay of Campeche tonight and Friday. Highs today and Friday will range from the 80s at the beaches, the lower 90s near the coast and the mid to upper 90s farther inland.
Temps tonight will be cooler than prev nights, but not overly cool. This will be some 6-14 degrees cooler than today.
Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s along/south of boundary. (Tonight through Thursday) becomes diffuse on Friday with a warming trend quickly returning through the early part of the weekend as the upper ridge remains over the southern Plains.
Cold air advection along the low-level northerly flow will continue overnight, dropping temperatures into the low 50s to upper 40s by early tomorrow morning. The high will continue to make eastward progress during this time, and by tomorrow afternoon the region will be on the western side of the high.
While this cold front passage will not result in any rainfall, it will result in some slightly cooler temperatures across the region over the course of the short-term. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should range in the low-60s north, to low-70s south.
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Canadian high pressure will build in behind a strong cold front bringing an autumnal airmass through the first half of the weekend.
357 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Conditions across the area are fitting for the Autumnal equinox as the passage of a cold front earlier this morning has ushered in a cooler and much drier air mass into eastern Kentucky. Temperatures range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, generally 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday, along with dew points in the low to mid 50s. Lows under mostly clear skies will fall into the low to mid 40s. An upper level trough will continue to drift off to the east which will allow for a brief period of ridging to move in. This will support high pressure development at the surface over the upper Mississippi Valley and will drift east to the Great Lakes region by Friday.
1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal today and about 15 degrees cooler than normal on Friday following yesterday's cold front.
223 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Upper low currently centered over northwestern Montana will continue to drift eastward, moving into North Dakota by Friday morning. A tight surface pressure gradient to the east of the trough is producing gusty southerly winds over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. On Friday, breezy to windy northwesterly winds will develop in the moderately tight surface pressure gradient to the west of the departing low pressure system.
Very Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions Through Late A deep N/NE flow exists across the region between Major Hurricane Fiona well east of the area and ridge to the west. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the coast and into the low 90s over the interior today, with skies mostly to partly sunny.
Clouds overhead will keep us from dropping any lower than the 50s overnight, with morning lows in the lower to mid 50s.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) Cold front has cleared Middle Tennessee and has left behind some post-frontal clouds and spotty light showers. Temperatures are also significantly cooler than those we observed 24 hours ago, and readings tonight and tomorrow are going to be quite pleasant.
A strong ridge of high pressure to the west (centered over Texas) is the source of this airmass.
1219 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) Surface observations show weak high pressure is currently in place across south central Texas, with a cold front noted over the Texas panhandle. It will be very warm again on Friday, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees.
Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping into the low pressure system, leading to notably lower than expected precipitation amounts. Upper ridging will rebound across the region this weekend with drier weather conditions and temperatures returning to more seasonable readings.
Temperatures are slightly cooler behind this boundary, in the mid 80s to lower 90s, while for the rest of the area, temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Warm and dry weather will persist through the short term, as upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Given little, if any, change to antecedent conditions, tonight will be similar to last night with breezy south winds yielding lows a degree or two above normal for the first night of fall, generally in the lower to middle 60s for all but the mountain areas, where lows in the 50s are possible.
928 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Canadian high pressure will build in behind a strong cold front bringing an autumnal airmass through the first half of the weekend.
Large upper level low pressure system has continue moving east away from the region this evening. It's possible a few more showers will move through valley county overnight on the back side of the low pressure. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s in the valley and in the low 30s in the mountains.
927 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Issued 927 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022) With high pressure overhead of Wisconsin tonight conditions are expected to remain quiet. Conditions will be cool tonight with low temperatures expected to drop into the low 40s. Patterson (Issued 338 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure will move overhead tonight, shifting east of the area Friday into Friday night as low pressure approaches from the west. There will be a lot of dry air in the low and mid levels tomorrow, so it will likely take a while for the atmosphere to moisten up enough for showers.
621 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) Broad subtropical ridging will remain in control of our weather, with mostly sunny skies and seasonally warm high temperatures continuing today and tomorrow. A stalled, weak cold front just to our north will gradually wash out and never reach south-central TX.
The coldest night since early May is expected tonight with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s across the area. Strong northerly flow will continue into the overnight hours with much cooler and drier than normal air advecting into the area. Cooler than normal conditions will continue into Friday with the much cooler than normal start to the day. The lower levels will be drier tomorrow compared to today which will limit the lower cu clouds, but expect that high clouds will increase through the day ahead of an upper level trough that will bring low rain chances to central Indiana over the weekend. Much cooler conditions will prevail through the long range as broad troughing takes hold over the eastern US.