Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With Arctic high pressure shifting east of the area, light winds will become southerly this afternoon. 5-10 mph northwest winds on the east side of the ridge produced widespread teens below zero wind chills over the northern half of the area with a few locations touching -20F. The high pressure ridge will shift across the area this morning with light southerly return flow developing from the west this afternoon. Initial warm advection should push highs into the lower 20s over the southwest CWA, while upper teens will be more common over the northeast half of the area where warm advection will have less time to act this afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens up more on Saturday, between the departing high and and advancing surface trof.
Building high pressure will clear the sky and support efficient radiational cooling tonight.
Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the central California interior this morning as a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific remains in control.
Cold Front Sagging South Into East Central Florida This Morning. A cold front is currently across the I-4 corridor traveling southward. Warmest temps along Treasure Coast/Okeechobee in the low 80s. Cooler air moves in behind the front, dropping overnight lows into the mid/upper 50s for much of the area, except in the low to mid 60s along the immediate Treasure Coast. Cold front traversing the I-4 corridor this morning as it continues to plow southward. A cold front will swing through the local waters today with winds becoming NNW/NNE behind it and increase to 15 knots with some higher gusts immediately following passage. Late this afternoon hazardous boating conditions develop as north winds increase to 20-25 knots behind the cold front.
Today Through Saturday Night An intense area of high pressure continued to settle southward overnight, just north of the state. Through the day, surface ridging will remain centered northeast of the area with cold air holding firm along the MS River valley. After today, surface ridging will move eastward which will bring a return to srly winds and a slow increase in moisture.
Warm air advection will be in full gear today ahead of the next trough with 700 mb temperatures increasing by 5 C. The overnight wave will usher slightly cooler air so highs tomorrow will run a few degrees cooler than today.
Northerlies return to the northern coast today, accompanied by cooler temperatures across the region and the potential for widespread cloud clearing this afternoon. Coastal marine clouds are expected to somewhat re-develop tonight, however increased mid-level cloudiness ahead of an approaching cold front will likely hinder their development early Saturday morning.
A high pressure ridge will move over NM today. A weak back door cold front will slip into the northeast Saturday, keeping highs at or a little below today's.
Current temperatures range from the 20s to lower 30s in the mountain valleys to the lower to mid 40s across the Central Valley. Ridging over the eastern Pacific will extend into NorCal again today and persist into Saturday continuing the period of dry and mild weather across the region. Increasing high clouds will likely begin to spill over the ridge into the area on Saturday.
423 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper trough from the Great Lakes to Southern Plains, a upper ridge from the Four Corners to South Central Canada, and upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. A surface warm front extended from Southwest SD to Eastern MT, with a quasi-stationary front along the WY/CO Front Range. Downsloping winds east of the Laramie Range will result in much warmer temperatures compared to recent days with highs this afternoon in the 40s and 50s.
By tonight, a LLJ will develop keeping low temps above freezing almost area wide.
606 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Cooler and drier weather will prevail as high pressure builds in today and into the weekend.
An upper level trough will move across the forecast area today which will weaken the gradient and allow it to become more of an east/west gradient. Expect a dry day under partly sunny skies across the lower elevations. A northwest flow aloft will continue Saturday with dry conditions prevailing for the lower elevations.
Expect snow shower potential to continue today as cold flow is maintained off the Lakes in the wake of last nights reinforcing cold front passage. Building high pressure will clear the sky and support efficient radiational cooling tonight.
/issued 338 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020/ Low clouds and possibly some areas with patchy freezing fog extended from eastern New Mexico into the South Plains and Panhandle early this morning.
358 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 A deep, positively-tilted trough continues to move east across the region early this morning. We are finally going to see a mostly sunny day across the Mid-South but temperatures will remain quite chilly with highs in the low/mid 30s north of I-40 and in the upper 30s to mid 40s south. Return flow will resume on Saturday as the surface anticyclone shifts to the east. However, the low- levels will remain rather dry tomorrow with nil rain chances.
300 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure well east of the region, with the frontal boundary now over eastern WY.
903 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Cooler and drier weather will prevail as high pressure builds in today and into the weekend.
419 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure well east of the region, with the frontal boundary now over eastern WY.
Winds will shift to light northwest as it passes with a mild Pacific airmass filtering in behind the trough with lows in the 20s.
The latest short term model guidance suggests the low clouds will continue moving north crossing the interstate around sunrise. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 40s across the eastern 1/3 of the area to the low and middle 50s across far eastern Colorado. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 20s. There could be a few hour window where temperatures drop lower than advertised mins as a lull in winds is expected ahead of a wind shift associated with a cold front. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 20s.
943 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Updated the forecast package to include the expansion of patchy fog/ freezing fog and low stratus based off of current trends. A high pressure ridge will move over NM today. A weak back door cold front will slip into the northeast Saturday, keeping highs at or a little below today's.
The first was to expand the area of patchy freezing fog further east across the Caprock. /issued 338 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020/ Low clouds and possibly some areas with patchy freezing fog extended from eastern New Mexico into the South Plains and Panhandle early this morning.
This will continue through tomorrow as Saturday afternoon highs reach above freezing, even over the snow cover. Though it feels warmer than it really is outside, temperatures have struggled to rise today with most stations finally reaching into the lower teens.
An upper level trough moving east through the northern Rockies will push a dry cold front across northern Utah today. Some areas may see enhanced winds with our dry cold front but by and large, our forecast area will miss this weak cold front.
This will lead to another chilly night, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s across the Hill Country to near 40 elsewhere (mid 40s along the Rio Grande where cloud cover will keep things warmer). High temperatures for Saturday will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to mid 60s elsewhere (so warmer than today but still cooler than seasonal normals).
Upper level trof axis continued to push off to the east and exit Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this morning. On the backside of the trof. the mid level clouds should continue to push across the CWA with clearing conditions forecast from west to east late afternoon/evening as the clouds exit with the departing upper trof.
This has kept daytime temperatures in the lower 30s across most of the CWA, though temperatures are rising quickly in the Rolling Plains (now in the middle 40s per latest mesonet data). A warm weekend is ahead of us as temperatures rise into the lower to upper 60s across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the South and Rolling Plains, respectively, for Saturday.
1026 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure well east of the region, with the frontal boundary now over eastern WY.
An upper trough will continue to support snow showers and light snow accumulations in the northern mountains today. A weak cold front moved through this morning resulting in gusty winds, which will continue through this afternoon.
1032 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure will prevail through Saturday night.
Though sunshine will be in abundance, CAA will remain strong on the eastern side of a high pressure system, moving over IL/IN.
1224 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Cooler and drier weather will prevail as high pressure builds in today and into the weekend.
1059 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Watching a weakening cold front that currently extends southwest in the Gulf from near Sarasota and Venice.
213 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Temperatures have rebounded nicely this afternoon as a warm front continues to progress east across the state. Thus far a few locations have seen temperatures in the lower 40s with plenty of sites firmly in the mid to upper 30s. Behind the warm front a few convective rain and/or snow showers may develop late this afternoon across the west, with widespread light snow developing tonight mainly across the north as a weak cold front dips down from Canada. Behind the cold front, look for cooler temperatures and a partly cloudy sky on Saturday with highs ranging from the teens across the north to the upper 20s and lower 30s south. On Saturday night, a broad upper ridge to our west will gradually flatten as a low amplitude wave rides down from Canada.
Mostly sunny to sunny skies ahead for this Valentine's Day with temperatures warming into the low to mid 50s. Now that the last of the wrap around stratocu over lower Acadiana has dissipated, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period as dry air takes over the lower levels. Main issue again today will be the elevated nrly winds behind our cold frontal passage. A Canadian ridge stretches from the northern gulf coast across the plains and Mississippi Valley into Canada this morning. Today and Saturday dry and cool conditions are expected as the ridge is over the region. Saturday the ridge will shift to the Atlantic coast which will turn the flow back onshore.
Low surface pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain a breezy south wind overnight, and keep minimum temperatures above freezing across much of our forecast area. As with these lee troughs, we will only see a north wind shift with this boundary as afternoon temperatures will warm to near climatically normal. However, persisting high cloudiness could keep those temperatures slightly cooler than models project.
The Arctic high pressure that brought these bitter cold conditions continues to progress further southeast this morning. Winds will turn southerly from west to east today and increase in speed, which will allow "warmer" temperatures to slowly but surely advect northward. Some light snow/rain chances make a return on Saturday as a surface cold front glides across the area.
Cold front passes Saturday morning, shifting surface winds to north. Highs on Saturday will be closer to normal despite the weak cold front.
1026 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Upper level ridge continues to build overhead during the overnight tonight, resulting in dry conditions through the rest of the morning. Over the areas that have the strongest winds, temperatures will be a little warmer than the areas without the strong winds, due to atmospheric mixing and warm temperatures aloft. A weak cold front will pass overhead during the overnight, but at this point in time it seems that it will "back-door" in, meaning it travel from east- northeast to the west-southwest.
Adjusted todays max temp grids with the latest 12Z superblend run, which is just a couple of degrees cooler than the previous forecast. By tonight, a LLJ will develop keeping low temps above freezing almost area wide.
As for temperatures this afternoon, we have kept areas on the Caprock a bit cooler as the clearing is not expected for another hour or so, but the Rolling Plains should still make this morning's forecasted highs, possibly a degree or two higher. The first was to expand the area of patchy freezing fog further east across the Caprock. /issued 338 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020/ Low clouds and possibly some areas with patchy freezing fog extended from eastern New Mexico into the South Plains and Panhandle early this morning.
1105 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure and a colder airmass will be in place across the region today.
With high pressure to the east Saturday, and a short wave trof driving a cold front across the Great Lakes at the same time, the pressure gradient between the two will tighten, and this will impact our dry Saturday with some increasingly breezy conditions as the day wears on.
1026 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Canadian high pressure will build in from the west later today.
1226 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Cool and dry high pressure will build across the East through Saturday.
High pressure was centered over the Mid-Mississippi valley at this time. As the high moves east tonight, winds will eventually shift to a more southerly direction which will start to bring milder air into the region.
Low lying and protected areas may fall below the freezing mark, but most areas should stay 35 degrees or warmer. Stronger gusty south winds are expected by mid morning Saturday as lee trough develops, but decrease mid afternoon. Warmer Saturday with highs mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
Modified arctic high pressure (1038mb) centered over southern IL at 18Z will slide eastward into PA tonight. This will set the stage for a clear and very cold night with lows ranging from -5F to +5F in the northern tier to the low teens in the south. Hourly temp trend should turn positive before sunrise across the far western zones as southerly gradient flow gradually increases on the backside of departing high pressure.
With clear skies and light winds returning once again, should see low temperatures bottom out in the high 30s to low 40s across most of SE Texas. With winds eventually turning to the southeast by Saturday afternoon, highs should be close to 5 degrees warmer across the region as warm, moist Gulf air re-enters the picture.
Could see some light snow accumulations today - up to an inch, especially across our northern border with Saskatchewan as another cold front heads this way.
1250 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure and a colder airmass will be in place across the region today.
1236 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure will prevail through Saturday night.
Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure well east of the region, with the frontal boundary now over eastern WY.
Despite the full sun, strong cold advection in place is keeping temperatures remain in the lower-mid 20s across southern Indiana and in northern KY (north of the WK/BG Parkways). For tonight, high pressure will continue to settle across the region with lows in the teens. High pressure will then move off to the east on Saturday and a well advertised warming trend will commence.
209 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure will provide a cold night, while increasing southwest flow allows temperatures to warm back to normal levels Saturday.
334 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 The center of high pressure will pass over the region tonight. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will allow temperatures to slowly moderate through the weekend.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Dominant high pressure just to our NE will continue to provide for cool and tranquil weather through tonight. Despite the cold start to the day on Saturday, temperatures will recover nicely with afternoon highs reaching the upper 50s to lower and mid 60s with southerly winds returning on the backside of the eastward advancing high pressure.
Winds will become gusty mid morning Saturday as lee trough develops. Afternoon highs today will be warmer than yesterday and much closer to usual mid February highs.
This will be followed by a brief period of ridging for most of Saturday.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s in the far north to the mid 30s in the Southeast.
243 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Seasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue to build into the region tonight through Saturday night.
Most of the low level cold air advection will be directed across the High Plains as the front becomes more diffuse across eastern KS, so we still expect to see moderating temperatures over the weekend with above normal temperatures expected to return to the area.
Meanwhile, GOES water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving east into the Northern Plains this afternoon with an associated surface cold front. This trough/cold front will progress eastward into the area for tomorrow/Saturday.
Breezy to locally windy conditions develop along and east of the central mountain chain (KLVS and KTCC) this afternoon in the wake of a leeside trough across eastern Colorado. Updated the forecast package to include the expansion of patchy fog/ freezing fog and low stratus based off of current trends. A high pressure ridge will move over NM today. A weak back door cold front will slip into the northeast Saturday, keeping highs at or a little below today's.
At the sfc, as expected, a tightened pressure gradient has developed across the Central Plains between high pressure centered over the Midwest and a frontal boundary extending through the High Plains. Even though temps will end up warmer than yesterday, those winds are making today feel pretty miserable. with wind chill values at 3 PM in the mid teens to mid 20s for most locations (far west is in the low 30s+). Models are in good agreement showing the upper level ridging continuing to slide east this evening, with flow turning more zonal.
739 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure has finally moved into the Mid-South, providing clear skies but cold temperatures. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than last night but still below freezing. Expect wind chills generally in the lower 20s tomorrow morning so be sure to bundle up! Not much change was made to the forecast tonight but temperatures. High pressure was centered over the Mid-Mississippi valley at this time. As the high moves east tonight, winds will eventually shift to a more southerly direction which will start to bring milder air into the region.
737 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure has finally moved into the Mid-South, providing clear skies but cold temperatures. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than last night but still below freezing. Expect wind chills generally in the lower 20s tomorrow morning so be sure to bundle up! Not much change was made to the forecast tonight but temperatures. High pressure was centered over the Mid-Mississippi valley at this time. As the high moves east tonight, winds will eventually shift to a more southerly direction which will start to bring milder air into the region.
With the onset of warm advection and the return of low-level moisture, lows will be several degrees warmer than last night, mainly in the mid 30s. A warmer and breezy day will follow on Saturday as south winds of 10-20 mph continue to bring in higher moisture content. Despite the passage of the upper trough and increased moisture, the combination of ascent/moisture appears insufficient to produce any precipitation through Saturday night, although some could potentially occur just south or east of the CWA.
Arctic high pressure building into the region tonight. Hourly temp trend should turn positive before sunrise across the far western zones as southerly gradient flow gradually increases on the backside of departing high pressure.
239 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Forecast challenges focus on the low pressure system and cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. The initial wind gusts with the passage of the cold front have been gusting up around 40 mph.
307 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Gusty southerly winds continue impacting the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon with the highest winds occurring along the I-29 corridor. A weak upper level trough will push across the region tonight, with increasing mid level clouds and a shift in the wind direction expected. 925 mb temps will be cooler on Saturday behind the trough, but favorable mixing winds should produce highs in the upper 20s to the upper 30s. High pressure sliding southeast across North Dakota and Minnesota Saturday night will bring cloudy skies, along with colder temperatures.
Therefore, we have decided to keep the High Wind Warning in effect for that area through 00Z Saturday. It will be a somewhat cooler day tomorrow with breezy conditions.
355 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Forecast challenges focus on the low pressure system and cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. The initial wind gusts with the passage of the cold front have been gusting up around 40 mph.
919 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure moves into the area tonight.
There will be a surface reflection in the form of a prefrontal trough, where winds switch from the SW to W.
Cold front still on track to push south through the area after midnight. This will bring cooler temperatures for Saturday. Mountain areas have been sunny as well with seasonal temperatures and some wind gusts over higher ridges. A weak cold front is also forecast to move into northeast Colorado overnight which will bring cooler temperatures back to the forecast area tomorrow.
Gusty southerly winds continue impacting the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon with the highest winds occurring along the I-29 corridor. A weak upper level trough will push across the region tonight, with increasing mid level clouds and a shift in the wind direction expected. 925 mb temps will be cooler on Saturday behind the trough, but favorable mixing winds should produce highs in the upper 20s to the upper 30s. High pressure sliding southeast across North Dakota and Minnesota Saturday night will bring cloudy skies, along with colder temperatures.
238 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Through Tonight: A broad lee cyclone in northeast Colorado (this afternoon) will weaken and shift ESE into central Kansas (tonight) as a broad upper trough progresses eastward from the Intermountain West/Rockies into the High Plains. Southerly winds will weaken AOA sunset, becoming light/variable this evening (as the lee cyclone tracks across the Tri-State area). Winds will shift to the NW-NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight -- as the lee cyclone progresses into central Kansas. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer than previous nights, in the 20s.
After another morning with lows around zero, temperatures have struggled to warm up this afternoon, with the snow cover and a band of stratus keeping most places in the low to mid 20s. Warmer 850 mb temperatures and mixing associated with the front will allow temperatures Saturday rise into the 40s.
With the cooler temperatures, some patchy fog will be possible yet again for locations on the Caprock late tonight and into Saturday morning. Late tomorrow morning, a cold front will begin to move through the area from north to south leading to an abrupt northerly wind shift. This has kept daytime temperatures in the lower 30s across most of the CWA, though temperatures are rising quickly in the Rolling Plains (now in the middle 40s per latest mesonet data). A warm weekend is ahead of us as temperatures rise into the lower to upper 60s across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the South and Rolling Plains, respectively, for Saturday.
913 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and passes over the area Saturday.
Rux Previous Discussion: Forecast challenges focus on the low pressure system and cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. The initial wind gusts with the passage of the cold front have been gusting up around 40 mph.