Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1016 AM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Pac NW with clipper crossing south central Canada and the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof is pushing into the western Dakotas. Even warmer temps expected on Monday with thermal ridge just off to our west.
Weak upper level ridge combined with light flow in the lower levels will keep low clouds and fog over the interior today.
1110 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Current observations indicate winds gusting around 40 mph through the Buffalo Ridge area very early this morning. Soundings would indicate dry air in the lower levels, so stayed with just a mention of flurries or sprinkles. Snow cover in our eastern areas will keep highs in the lower to mid 30s, but lower 40s will be common through the James River and MO River valleys. In spite of weak cold air advection behind the aforementioned front, it will be a relatively mild night compared to late with lows in the lower 20s. Colder air will hold to the north and east with highs in the lower to mid 30s.
Also there is sufficient evidence the low clouds and patchy fog could linger into early this afternoon in the Umpqua Basin.
As the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure builds in, winds will become light and VRB through Monday morning.
The wintry mix is finally tapering off in Christian and Todd counties, but temperatures are likely to need another hour or two to climb above freezing. Any travel difficulties should improve rapidly as the sun comes out and temperatures climb above freezing. Additional snow accumulation in this band should be an inch or less, but a slight warming of temperatures aloft has us a little concerned about a potential changeover to either sleet and/or freezing rain. Any travel issues should let up by late morning and afternoon as precipitation winds down and temperatures climb above the freezing mark.
Winds have increased behind the cold front; weather stations have had consistent winds ranging from 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.
upper ridge slowly builds into Colorado, with generally light winds and mild temps at most locations this afternoon. On Monday, lee trough persists on the plains as ridge gradually flattens by late day. Could see some breezy conditions in the afternoon over the far sern plains ahead of the trough, especially Baca County, where gradient is tightest. Given slight upward trend in mid-level temps and better mixing Mon afternoon, expect maxes to bump upward a few degf at many locations, with lee eastern slopes and the lower Arkansas Valley from Canon City eastward reaching the 60s by late day.
18z data has a warm front from central Minnesota down into northwest Oklahoma. For the rest of tonight and Monday dry conditions are expected even through the warm front will move through the area. Temperatures on Monday will be warmer but still below normal for mid- January.
This blocking pattern is being maintained by a ridge of high pressure over the West and a closed low off of the California coast.
Lingering rain and snow continues along a boundary that extends southwest through this low into central Alabama and northern Mississippi. Expect another 1/2 to one inch in most locations, with some higher amounts possible in the highest elevations through the early evening hours. Black ice will likely be an issue tonight into the morning hours on Monday, as temperatures drop quickly below freezing after sunset and bottom out in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees overnight. Lows in the lower to mid 20s look fairly widespread.
High pressure will continue across the region with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
High pressure across the region will continue to bring dry and quiet conditions to the Silver State through the next few days. The pattern continues with an upper ridge over the west coast of the United States with a closed low to the south and just off the coast of California. Not much movement is expected from the upper low over the short term. However, surface based dewpoints continue to run a bit high and so can't dismiss the possibility of patchy freezing fog later tonight. Another quiet day is on tap for Monday as a ridge remains aloft with the upper low off to the west.
Issued an SPS for black ice and hazardous travel due to refreezing overnight.
243 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Because of the overnight and morning shower activity that moved through the region, and their associated cloud cover, the low temperatures did not even come close to the forecast until around 8 AM or 9 AM. Some patchy freezing fog is possible through the Milk and low Missouri River valleys.
High pressure & quiet conditions build in tonight. Lows will fall below climo in upper 20s (especially in areas of remnant snowpack) & below freezing elsewhere. In addition, NW winds should keep elevated sfc, such as roads & bridges, drying out into the overnight hours, but any remnant moisture refreeze & persist through daybreak-mid morn Mon around 7-9AM at the latest.
Temperatures are on track to fall into the low to mid 20s across most of central Illinois, with a few locales north of the Illinois River dipping into the teens.
Otherwise mostly dry and mild this week with high pressure in control. A 565dm 500mb low pressure system is situated approximately 325 miles WSW of downtown San Francisco early this afternoon. That said, the high cloud base and limited coverage meant that most areas were lucky to see a few sprinkles, if any rain whatsoever. Consequently, this storm system will continue to linger in the vicinity through the day on Monday, so expect very similar conditions seen today (ie, mild temperatures with extremely isolated high based showers and scattered to broken mid to high level clouds) as the upper low/associated rex block slowly shift eastward.
239 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Northern Rockies through midday Monday. The onset of precipitation Monday afternoon through Monday evening will consist mainly of snow, however some freezing rain will be mixed in at times across northwest Montana. Once the relatively cold east winds set in across northwest Montana late Monday night, the freezing rain threat should quickly dissipate.
The issue arrises in that much/all of this saturation occurs below the dendritic growth zone and thus would favor freezing drizzle as the precipitation type.
Current surface analysis places high over the Rockies with trough stretching from James Bay towards the upper midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest and trough over the upper midwest. For Monday night, south-southwesterly winds expected ahead of a strong cold front may result in steady or rising temperatures as we get into the overnight.
Lee trough quickly redeveloping by 17/12Z and strengthening with potential for occasional wind gusts to around 35kt along the central mt chain along and south of I-40 by 17/18Z.
Quiet weather continues as high pressure ridging will continue to dominate the pattern continues. Give yourself extra time and make sure to drive slowly in the fog! A cut-off low currently off the central California coast of central CA will slowly move to north and then shift inland Monday.
348 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Although the cold air mass has been shunted to the east, decent radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 20s tonight.
826 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Western edge of the low-level stratus deck has deteriorated a bit further to the east compared to the last update, although seems relatively stable at the moment. Between the two stratus decks, based on satellite imagery and supported by a few hi-res models, patchy fog has begun to develop east of highway 83 to the western edge of the low-level stratus layer. Current surface analysis places high over the Rockies with trough stretching from James Bay towards the upper midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest and trough over the upper midwest. For Monday night, south-southwesterly winds expected ahead of a strong cold front may result in steady or rising temperatures as we get into the overnight.
404 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains, although not much moisture is expected in this pattern. Thermal ridge timing over the region will allow temps to be quite mild Monday combined with decent mixing, with 50s and few 60s expected.
Snow and mixed precip are ongoing this afternoon as the upper low to our south continues to move east. Models still having a rough time getting precip type and snow amounts with the lowest 3-4kft hovering around freezing, so mixed precip will continue to be possible. But, colder and drier air is working its way in from the northwest as the upper low moves to the northeast, and most of the back half of the precip on radar is being observed as snow at the surface. Very difficult forecast due to the low levels being near freezing for most of the event, and warm pockets held on at the surface longer than expected. Western half of the area should get above freezing though, so that will help a bit.
The upper level low pressure system continues to lift northeastward into the western Carolinas early this evening, and is being followed by a drier northwest flow pattern aloft across our local area. Low clouds are still holding firmly in place as of 7 PM CST, but satellite trends indicate that the back edge of the low cloud shield should continue to erode eastward across our much of our forecast area later this evening into late tonight. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect until midnight, as surf heights will still remain elevated between 4-7 feet (highest values along the western FL panhandle beaches) this evening before gradually subsiding. The HIGH rip current risk also continues through the overnight hours.
Tonight, high pressure centered over the Deep South TX will continue to build in from the east, weakening the pressure gradient and bringing light and variable winds across SE Texas. Upper level ridging will inhibit uplift, keeping skies clear and rain out of the forecast. Ridging will also help develop some slight warm air advection from the W/NW, bringing slightly warmer lows than earlier this morning. Lows will be in the 30s/40s, though most of SE Texas will stay above freezing. Winds will stay light and variable through Monday, as high pressure continues to pass over our area. Ridging will continue into Monday, keeping skies clear and allowing highs to climb into the 60s. Monday evening, high pressure moves east of our area, allowing for southerly winds to develop in it's wake.
Turning Noticeably Cooler And Drier Through Mid Week. A robust upper low with a surface reflection was over the western Carolinas this evening. with a cold front that arced out over the Atlantic then extended south through the Bahamas to central Cuba. Lows tonight will be near seasonal while the highs Mon stay below by a few degrees. Then high pressure in the Gulf begins to slide east.
Although the cold air mass has been shunted to the east, decent radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 20s tonight.
542 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Afternoon satellite imagery shows some stratocumulus clouds pushing down into Nebraska from South Dakota behind a cold front. High pressure sinking into the Southern Plains tonight will quickly start pushing warmer air into the region and bring very warm conditions to central and western Nebraska to start the week.
314 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Afternoon satellite imagery shows some stratocumulus clouds pushing down into Nebraska from South Dakota behind a cold front. High pressure sinking into the Southern Plains tonight will quickly start pushing warmer air into the region and bring very warm conditions to central and western Nebraska to start the week.
A decaying trough approaching from the northwest will likely bring a few snow showers to western sections of the area this evening but activity should fizzle before reaching eastern zones.
Weak high pressure with light winds/calm will prevail overnight beneath clear skies. Extended the low water advisory through Monday afternoon.
428 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Satellite and RAP analysis indicates high pressure over the western CONUS resulting mainly clear skies, other then a few high clouds moving over the area. Overnight lows were raised slightly due to the lows last night not getting as cold as expected due to high clouds. MLK Day, expecting even warmer temperatures as 850mb temps near 11 degrees Celsius and southwesterly flow during the morning. Due to the warmer temperatures, the southwesterly flow will advect drier air into the area as well resulting in elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens along and west of Kansas Highway 25. The lowest RH and strongest winds are not anticipated to coincide which should minimize the overall fire weather threats.
Models are no longer quite as gung-ho about freezing fog tonight for the river valleys (mainly the Milk and the Missouri downstream of the dam). 97 Because of the overnight and morning shower activity that moved through the region, and their associated cloud cover, the low temperatures did not even come close to the forecast until around 8 AM or 9 AM. Some patchy freezing fog is possible through the Milk and low Missouri River valleys.
Weak upper level ridge over the area dissipating tonight.
355 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 A dry northwest flow will continue through Monday as general ridging remains across the western US.
1036 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Great flying weather extends through MLK Day as high pressure pulls farther east of the region. Latest guidance continues to trend of MAV being much cooler than the MET. Issued an SPS to cover possible freezing temperatures early Monday morning. Weak southerly flow will develop Monday afternoon as a trough of low pressure develops near the New Mexico/West Texas border. A weak short wave ridge will move east on Monday on an axis from eastern New Mexico to the Rio Grande plains. The trough of low pressure over West Texas Monday night will keep southerly winds up across the region.
953 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains, although not much moisture is expected in this pattern. Thermal ridge timing over the region will allow temps to be quite mild Monday combined with decent mixing, with 50s and few 60s expected.
Morning low temperatures Monday morning will drop into the low 20s for the entire CWA. Winds will turn out of the southwest remaining light towards sunrise as a leeside trough develops under the northwest flow aloft across the Rockies.
On the back side of the high, southwesterly surface winds will bring modest WAA. Though this new air mass will be warmer than the one it replaces, it likely won't arrive soon enough to boost high temperatures in the Omaha Metro (expect a high in the mid 40s). With another day of warmer temperatures and modest humidity, the remaining snowpack should take a hit. Keeping the low level WAA going and result in rising 850 mb temperatures.
Water vapor imagery is showing a rather potent short wave trof digging into the upper MS Valley at this time and this wave will continue digging southeastward through the middle MS Valley tonight. Otherwise besides the increase in clouds tonight ahead of this short wave and associated cold front, there will be a reinforcing post- frontal surge of cold air and additional stratus overnight.
Sfc lee trough redeveloping by 17/12Z and strengthening thereafter with potential for occasional wind gusts to around 35kt along the central mt chain along and south of I-40 by 17/18Z.
The parent upper level low responsible for our bouts of wintry weather earlier today has since traversed eastward over the Carolinas. Therefore, low temperatures tonight were lowered a few degrees, now ranging from the low 20s into the mid to upper 20s. However, the freezing temperatures are anticipated to arrive before roads can fully dry. Lows in the lower to mid 20s look fairly widespread.
Otherwise mostly dry and mild this week with high pressure in control. Radar showing light shower activity across our region coming from the low pressure system spinning offshore from SoCal. We may get a slight break overnight before light showers return early Monday morning, especially for Monterey County, as that low pressure moves closer to the SoCal coastline.
This is in association with a tight pressure gradient in the wake of a cold front that pushed through Sunday. Some BKN CIGs are also likely, with cold air advection over warmer waters creating instability for clouds that can then move onshore over terminals.
Strong low pressure will exit into New England this morning while a reinforcing impulse drops southeast into the middle Ohio River Valley. Highs will be in the low 30s.
A cool night is ahead with overnight low temperatures expected to fall into the low to mid 30s.
Otherwise, a pretty uneventful night, with lows mostly in the lower and middle teens. A decaying trough approaching from the northwest will likely bring a few snow showers to western sections of the area this evening but activity should fizzle before reaching eastern zones.
Dewpoints still linger back in the lower 30s. High pressure & quiet conditions build in tonight. Lows will fall below climo in upper 20s (especially in areas of remnant snowpack) & below freezing elsewhere. In addition, NW winds should keep elevated sfc, such as roads & bridges, drying out into the overnight hours, but any remnant moisture refreeze & persist through daybreak-mid morn Mon around 7-9AM at the latest.
1024 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Satellite and RAP analysis indicates high pressure over the western CONUS resulting mainly clear skies, other then a few high clouds moving over the area. Overnight lows were raised slightly due to the lows last night not getting as cold as expected due to high clouds. MLK Day, expecting even warmer temperatures as 850mb temps near 11 degrees Celsius and southwesterly flow during the morning. Due to the warmer temperatures, the southwesterly flow will advect drier air into the area as well resulting in elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens along and west of Kansas Highway 25. The lowest RH and strongest winds are not anticipated to coincide which should minimize the overall fire weather threats.
921 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 (Issued 920 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022) Light -shsn associated with sharpening short wave trof have now pushed east of the area with only a few lingering flurries possible the next few hours. Winds will become more northwesterly with time tonight, and will be gusty for a time late tonight and tomorrow morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to strong low pressure moving up the east coast.
Combination of more mid cloud cover today than last couple of days, temps that are mostly running a tad warmer and RHs slightly lower are apparently delaying fog formation. JHM Quiet weather continues as high pressure ridging will continue to dominate the pattern continues. Give yourself extra time and make sure to drive slowly in the fog! A cut-off low currently off the central California coast of central CA will slowly move to north and then shift inland Monday.
With clearing not coming until later and cold advection in place, temperatures will be lucky to top out slightly lower than seasonable in the lower and middle 30s. This should keep overnight lows from falling any lower than the lower and middle 20s.
249 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 Dry, cool, and cloudy weather will prevail today as a high pressure ridge moves into the area. Dry weather is expected as a high pressure ridge moves across the area.
Light Variable winds will become southerly by midday on Monday with clear skies as high pressure maintains control. High pressure will continue across the region with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
138 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Water vapor shows west coast ridge extending into the Pac NW and Northern Rockies, with disturbed northwest flow north of the ridge.
917 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 The parent upper level low responsible for our bouts of wintry weather earlier today has since traversed eastward over the Carolinas. Therefore, low temperatures tonight were lowered a few degrees, now ranging from the low 20s into the mid to upper 20s. However, the freezing temperatures are anticipated to arrive before roads can fully dry. Lows in the lower to mid 20s look fairly widespread.
Otherwise mostly dry and mild this week with high pressure in control. As part of this change the closed upper circulation to our west will gradually devolve into an open-wave trough while crossing our area today. So while we'll have sufficient large-scale lift (via the upper trough) and moisture for precipitation generation, amounts will be tempered by the near-surface dry layer. High temperatures this afternoon should remain on the mild side, although plentiful cloud cover may make things feel just a little cooler.
1136 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Western edge of the low-level stratus deck has deteriorated a bit further to the east compared to the last update, although seems relatively stable at the moment. Between the two stratus decks, based on satellite imagery and supported by a few hi-res models, patchy fog has begun to develop east of highway 83 to the western edge of the low-level stratus layer. Current surface analysis places high over the Rockies with trough stretching from James Bay towards the upper midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest and trough over the upper midwest. For Monday night, south-southwesterly winds expected ahead of a strong cold front may result in steady or rising temperatures as we get into the overnight.
With clear skies overhead from steep northwest flow aloft, temperatures overnight are forecast to radiate down into the mid to upper 20s across the I-30 corridor to near freezing along and south of I-20.
946 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 A dry northwest flow will continue through Monday as general ridging remains across the western US.
1136 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Afternoon satellite imagery shows some stratocumulus clouds pushing down into Nebraska from South Dakota behind a cold front. High pressure sinking into the Southern Plains tonight will quickly start pushing warmer air into the region and bring very warm conditions to central and western Nebraska to start the week.
414 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 (Issued 414 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022) Today and Tonight: As the strong low pressure system over the east coast continues to move northward toward the New England states today.
409 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 The quiet weather pattern continues for one more day with ridging aloft and mild temperatures for mid-January. Snow showers will mainly be limited to the terrain of the Absarokas and Bighorns, but cooler air will also begin pushing southward out of Montana, lowering temperatures in the Bighorn and Powder River Basin. Typical breezy winds will accompany the weak cold front pushing in from the north during the evening hours.
450 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 With the low pressure system that brought snowfall to portions of the region 24 hours ago having traveled up the eastern seaboard, conditions today will be chilly but dry. The main upper trough will continue to be located across our region which will result in continued cooler temperatures today. Highs will top out in the upper 40s in the northeast to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Overnight lows will be chilly, around or just below freezing for most locations.
The high will settle to the south of the region tonight, allowing a light south wind to try to develop. South winds will crank up quite a bit on Tuesday as an arctic cold front approaches from the northwest.