Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 After a few more showers today, high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Weak high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast today will keep the overall pattern quiet. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s this afternoon as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds in from the west tonight and tomorrow. The upper ridge axis moves overhead on Tuesday which will allow for large scale subsidence across the entire area.
Rain showers will remain possible overnight across parts of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as an upper low near the Kansas border pushes through the region. Not the most clear cut PoP forecast for the remainder of night, although the latest CAMs solutions suggest a relative minimum across southeast OK with the higher PoPs focused closer to the upper low/WAA zone across northeast OK into northwest AR.
gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology#) surface pattern with a strong subtropical ridge to our north and easterly flow generally above 11 knots.
Surface analysis places a sprawling dome of high pressure just offshore of the Carolinas.
High pressure with mainly dry conditions and a notable warming trend start mid-week. An elevated warm front, associated theta-e advection and synoptic ascent associated with the right rear quadrant of a departing 100KT H250 jet core will yield a fairly narrow swath of mainly light rainfall roughly oriented WNW-ESE early this morning into the afternoon. Primarily diurnally driven showers/thundershowers are expected in the short term period with coverage tied to a weakening elevated warm front.
Brief warming trend through Tuesday as high pressure builds. A slow moving trough will impact the region later in the week, sending afternoon high temps down into the mid 70s. Afternoon highs should rebound by the weekend as the trough slowly weakens and exits the area. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is in store for the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills this afternoon as instability on the backside of the trough remains over the area. Afternoon highs will rise several degrees today from yesterday's highs as a result of the building ridge. The ridge axis will be directly overhead by Tuesday afternoon, so expect highs to rise a bit again, likely into the upper 80s for most of the San Joaquin Valley and low to mid 90s across the Mojave Desert.
Air mass begins to destabilize again this afternoon ahead of a upper level low moving slowly eastward into New Mexico.
331 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable weather with low rain chances today and Tuesday. Weak continental high pressure will hold north of the area before merging with western reaches of Bermuda high pressure, bringing light onshore winds this forecast period, a little gusty at the coast in afternoon, as a land vs ocean-water temperature difference drives a moderate sea-breeze circulation.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 81 63 85 / 10 10 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 78 60 83 / 10 20 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 80 59 78 59 83 / 10 20 30 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 56 76 57 81 / 40 20 30 20 10.
This scenario due to low level moisture fetch strengthening and surface front remaining quasi stationary to our north, as upper level ridging influences try to develop to our east and at least attempt to put a damper on more robust shower and thunderstorm development across eastern portions of mid state region by late Tue afternoon. Consensus blended model solution showing very good agreement in concerning strength of upper level ridging influences building east to west across our area Tue night through upcoming weekend. With continued building of upper level ridging influences eastward into mid state region through upcoming weekend, high temperatures by Sun afternoon will become unseasonably warm rising into upper 80s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.
We expect cooler temperatures along the North Shore. The high-res guidance suggests a lake breeze will be limited to the North Shore, but given how warm it will get and how cool the lake is, it's possible a weak lake breeze could develop elsewhere late this afternoon. Winds will be south to southeast for most areas but east to northeast over and close to Lake Superior which will keep lakeside areas cooler. An upper trough will continue to move east from the western CONUS/Canada through the week causing winds to become increasingly southerly aloft over our region.
426 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure dominates through the week. Moisture remains limited save the mid- levels, where a band of Gulf of Mexico-sourced moisture rounding the northern periphery of the ridge continues to stream over the area. At the surface, high pressure ridging down the coast will keep low level moisture, and thus the rain threat, limited.
A mid level trough axis was oriented near the NE/IA state line this afternoon with a well-defined small scale circulation near Plattsmouth with another circulation in southeast South Dakota and additional small-scale forcing evident in north central NE and Kansas. A warm front has set up near the NE/KS border with some low-end instability in the vicinity of the front. Monday into Tuesday: The mid/upper short wave trough and associated forcing will linger over the area through much of the day Monday with intermittent showers focused over southwest Iowa and into eastern NE at times. The center of the long wave trough moves very little into Tuesday, centered over Colorado with moisture transport into the local area and occasional weak vorticity maxima crossing the area.
1056 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 The main features across the region are a mid-level shear axis over the north, and some weak diffluence across the south/southwest portions of the forecast area from an upper low over south-central California. By 18Z Monday the upper low is expected to be just south of the Four Corners Region. Diurnal convection is still expected, but the focus will be over the south again closer to the upper low with possibly a weak wave rotating around the upper low clipping the far south. High temperatures are expected to be about 5+ degrees warmer on Monday than highs today.
Convection had tapered off across our area during the overnight hours however a few showers/storms lingered across the high plains to the west and also to the east in southeast Nebraska. Precipitation chances continue this upcoming week in lift/dynamics as the western upper low pressure system emerges from the Rockies and crosses the plains states.
Given uncertainty, have hedged toward the warm side for now, but models which are more robust with the low clouds indicate highs could be 5+ degrees cooler in areas south of I-90. The expanding clouds and general moisture advection should hold low temperatures in the lower-mid 50s most areas tonight. Weak mid-level flow continues into Tuesday, though we begin to see a southern Rockies trough progress slowly east into the Plains, slowed by stout upper ridging east of the Mississippi Valley. Forecast highs already near the 25th percentile of blended guidance, so did not make significant adjustments, though could again see cooler readings if clouds remain more widespread/persistent.
Temperature wise will be very similar to yesterday, but perhaps a bit warmer with widespread highs in the low to mid 80s, possibly reaching into the upper 80s across portions of the north. While we will have southerly flow, the lower atmosphere will still be very dry. An upper level ridge axis will move across the state Tuesday morning, placing western and central North Dakota in southwest flow aloft ahead of digging west coast trough. We will generally stay in southwest flow aloft through the rest of the period as the digging trough closes off and stalls out across the southwest CONUS.
/Issued 347 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021/ Slow moving mid level trough and preceding corridor of enhanced low level winds have maintained scattered showers and isolated storms from NE OK through western AR.
In response, weak ridging will briefly build overhead and provide subsidence across the region through much of the short term.
The best height falls were indicated to East and GOES H2O imagery early this morning is showing the low tracking across northern AZ as anticipated.
745 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Aviation - Dry today into Tuesday morning - Chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon through much of week - Warming trend is still on track - Dry today into Tuesday morning A warm front will remain situated off to the south of the state of Michigan both today and tonight with weak ridging extending into the area from the southeast. Lows tonight dip back into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
High pressure and relatively low pwats will still result in fair weather and light winds today. Max temps trend a few to several degrees (anywhere from +1-2 to as much as +10F) warmer than yesterday with highs in the 65-75F range or within a few degrees either side of mid-May climo.
Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s, or 20 degrees above normal. A large upper low will approach the region Tuesday. The increased clouds and cooler air mass will help bring temperatures back to normal, in the mid 60s.
922 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Large area of high pressure remains centered along the Eastern US. with pronounce ridging extending westward thru the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. At the sfc, high pressure continued to dominate the eastern states, with a ridge axis continuing to extend back through the Great Lakes. The action in the nrn stream gets pushed further north into Canada, as upper ridging strengthens in srn Canada/Great Lakes region. High temperatures today will largely be in the mid and upper 70s, cooler near the lakeshores. Folded over omega type ridge moves across the region through the day Tuesday.
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the area today and Tuesday. Another round of windy and cooler weather is likely later this week and into the weekend. The main weather maker over the next 36-48 hours will be an upper level low slowly drifting over northern Arizona. Cooler air aloft will create enough instability for scattered shower and thunderstorm development the next couple afternoons. Convection will be most favored over the high terrain with lightning and gusty winds as the primary hazard.
317 AM PDT Mon May 17 2021 A few storms may linger in the High Sierra on this afternoon. Otherwise, warmer and drier conditions will be in place to start the week. More active weather with breezy winds and chances for precipitation can be expected later this week with significantly cooler temperatures. No major changes were made to the forecast for this cycle as afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms linger along the higher Sierra of Mono/Alpine counties. Low pressure finally ejects tonight with temperatures rebounding today and tomorrow. Another trough begins to drop out of the Pacific Northwest Tuesday with afternoon zephyr becoming marginally enhanced; gusts 25-30 mph.
412 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 A pair of slow moving upper lows continue to drift across the southern US this morning, and are resulting in multiple areas of widespread convection across the region. An inverted trough over southeast Kansas, associated with the first and weaker of the two upper lows, has moved to the east over the past 12 hours.
633 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 After a few more showers today, high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Weak high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast today will keep the overall pattern quiet. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s this afternoon as a stronger ridge of high pressure builds in from the west tonight and tomorrow. The upper ridge axis moves overhead on Tuesday which will allow for large scale subsidence across the entire area.
1016 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable weather with low rain chances today and Tuesday. Weak continental high pressure will hold north of the area before merging with western reaches of Bermuda high pressure, bringing light onshore winds this forecast period, a little gusty at the coast in afternoon, as a land vs ocean-water temperature difference drives a moderate sea-breeze circulation.
403 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Similar to yesterday morning we have been seeing some fog develop in the cooler spots as the temperatures fall to the dew points. Today, continued ridging aloft and high surface pressure should keep us mostly sunny. While Tuesday will not be cold, the cloudier skies will lead to a drop in temperatures from Monday down into the low to mid 70s. As we move into the middle of the week our days of ridging aloft are fully behind us with a new pattern of southerly flow aloft.
630 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure over the eastern US will strengthen through the week as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
703 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure dominates through the week. Moisture remains limited save the mid- levels, where a band of Gulf of Mexico-sourced moisture rounding the northern periphery of the ridge continues to stream over the area. At the surface, high pressure ridging down the coast will keep low level moisture, and thus the rain threat, limited.
956 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure dominates through the week. Moisture remains limited save the mid- levels, where a band of Gulf of Mexico-sourced moisture rounding the northern periphery of the ridge continues to stream over the area. At the surface, high pressure ridging down the coast will keep low level moisture, and thus the rain threat, limited.
946 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will build over the region this week leading to a warming trend with above normal temperatures and little if any precipitation. Afternoon temperatures will be warmer in mid 70s but will be prevented from rising higher due to cloud cover and weak flow overall.
The region remain underneath low amplitude H70-H50 ridging aloft, while a weak boundary remains draped from KY through parts of southwest Virginia. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 62 82 62 85 / 0 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 60 79 60 84 / 10 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 80 59 79 59 84 / 10 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 57 77 57 81 / 30 20 40 20 20.
Previous Discussion Issued: 313 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure and relatively low pwats should result in fair weather and light winds today. Max temps trend a few to several degrees (anywhere from +1-2 to as much as +10F) warmer than yesterday with highs in the 65-75F range or within a few degrees either side of mid-May climo.
628 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Low pressure remains in place across western Kansas with a warm front extending eastward across Missouri and into Illinois. Low level flow will continue to increase this evening as the low level jet ramps up, with the core of the jet centered east of the Mississippi. This will keep at least scattered showers in the forecast through the night, with the highest chances across Illinois. BSH The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the week, with the upper ridge across the eastern US expanding and retrograding. Elsewhere, as showers move in and out of the area, the low levels will continue to saturate and it appears likely that everywhere will fall to at least MVFR conditions by the late afternoon or evening.
611 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable weather with low rain chances today and Tuesday. Weak continental high pressure will hold north of the area before merging with western reaches of Bermuda high pressure, bringing light onshore winds this forecast period, a little gusty at the coast in afternoon, as a land vs ocean-water temperature difference drives a moderate sea-breeze circulation.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Similar to yesterday morning we have been seeing some fog develop in the cooler spots as the temperatures fall to the dew points. Today, continued ridging aloft and high surface pressure should keep us mostly sunny. While Tuesday will not be cold, the cloudier skies will lead to a drop in temperatures from Monday down into the low to mid 70s. As we move into the middle of the week our days of ridging aloft are fully behind us with a new pattern of southerly flow aloft.
1048 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. High pressure will prevail today. High clouds could approach from the west later this afternoon/evening, however they pose no influence on the high temperatures today. The combination of greater cloud cover and warmer llvl thicknesses should result in low temperatures in the low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast. At the surface, dry high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will prevail through the period. Aloft, a ridge will shift over the region from the west, which is then expected to drastically intensify Tuesday night. POPs are capped at 15% for a short duration Tuesday afternoon considering both the influence of high pressure and absence of forcing will likely override elevated shower development. Deep ridging maintains its hold over the Eastern Seaboard through the period.
453 AM MDT Mon May 17 2021 (17/12Z TAF period) VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds will generally continue through at least the next 24 hours across the region under a high pressure ridge. /ISSUED 453 AM MDT Mon May 17 2021/ Unseasonably warm weather will continue across the Great Falls CWA today as deep southwesterly flow continues to advect warmer air into the area today. The weather begins to turn unsettled tomorrow as an upper level low begins to move into the PacNW. As this upper level low moves in, a weak low pressure system will move across Southern British Columbia and Alberta, which will cause a cold front to swing through our area, sweeping away the recent warm air mass that we've had the past few days and replacing it with noticeably cooler air.
1016 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Dry high pressure will be moderating for the next few days as easterly flow remains in control across the area. High pressure and easterly flow will remain through the week.
Further north where sunshine is being seen (some high clouds sneaking in) highs should reach into the lower 70s. The ECMWF and GFS have come into good agreement with a very prominent upper ridge developing and building north of the Ohio River during the second half of this week. Deep low/mid level ridge over Wisconsin/Michigan and backing/dry sub cloud layer flow thwarting northward expansion of light rain shield currently along/south of KIKK-KPLD this morning.
As the previously mentioned upper low moves inland, the chance of rain and thunderstorms goes up Tuesday night.
1056 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s. The somewhat "cooler and drier" air mass is courtesy of incoming air trajectories rooted in modified continental polar air around a sprawling high pressure cell currently centered just off the mid- Atlantic coast, with a sprawling ridge extending southwestward across most of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf basin.
A storm system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds today.
615 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Showers are likely through Tuesday with some thunderstorms as a warm front lifts northward across central Illinois, with the front getting into northern IL on Tuesday.
The low pressure system moving away from the region will allow drier conditions Tuesday across the state.
345 AM PDT Mon May 17 2021 Other than a few late day showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe, dry weather with slightly warmer temperatures is expected early this week. Unsettled weather along with cooler temperatures returns after mid-week.
scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into central Indiana over the last few hours ahead of the warm front to the southwest. the current showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift northeastward this morning as the warm front stalls over southwest Indiana. So, will only trend toward upper 60s across the northern counties, while the southern counties could climb into the upper 70s south of the warm front. Tonight, temperatures will remain balmy in the 50s, and daytime highs tomorrow will top off in the low 70s with little change in the pattern.
Periodic light shower activity will possible as well, and we have included a slight chance POP for the entire CWFA late this morning/early this afternoon, when a disturbance peripheral to the primary synoptic trough may enhance deeper lift.
High pressure with mainly dry conditions and a notable warming trend start mid-week. The main area of precipitation is still anticipated to be along the elevated warm front as previously mentioned. Synoptic lift associated with the aforementioned jet streak is also yielding some likely virga on radar at this hour north of the elevated warm front. An elevated warm front, associated theta-e advection and synoptic ascent associated with the right rear quadrant of a departing 100KT H250 jet core will yield a fairly narrow swath of mainly light rainfall roughly oriented WNW-ESE early this morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will begin building into the area.
As for highs today, kept temperatures cooler as stratus is expected to stick around much of the forecast area through the daytime heating hours. An closed Upper level low will move into the region Tuesday afternoon in Colorado.
Breezy onshore flow will continue today around high pressure to the north.
A pair of slow moving upper lows continue to drift across the southern US this morning, and are resulting in multiple areas of widespread convection across the region. An inverted trough over southeast Kansas, associated with the first and weaker of the two upper lows, has moved to the east over the past 12 hours.
Otherwise, looking at high clouds with a mid deck of clouds toward the southern Michigan border as frontal boundary hangs around the Ohio River before advancing north as a warm front on Tuesday. This configuration ensures dry weather for SE MI between a front in northern Ontario and a low pressure center and warm front from MO into the Ohio valley. The cloud pattern combines with slightly more SE surface wind to cap temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, just a few degrees above normal for mid May.
422 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Showers are likely through Tuesday with some thunderstorms as a warm front lifts northward across central Illinois, with the front getting into northern IL on Tuesday.
149 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will build over the region this week leading to a warming trend with above normal temperatures and little if any precipitation. Split flow is evident across the country with low-amplitude troughing stretching over the nation's mid-section. Any non-zero instability seems to stay from the ridgetops of the Alleghenies to points westward. 10 inch range, perhaps locally higher near the higher ridges. Highs should top out in the low to mid 70s, with 60s in the mountains. Low temperatures return to climatology, upper 40s to low 50s, locally a bit warmer in the metro areas. Tuesday will bring an increase in temperatures as the upstream ridge positions itself from the southern U. into the Lower Great Lakes.