Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warming trend is then expected by midweek with increasing southerly surface flow developing in response to lee troughing. A stout mid to upper low is expected to move into the plains late this weekend.
754 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure over the area will allow for partly cloudy skies tonight.
647 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: MVFR cigs across the cntrl TAF sites at 00Z wl shift to the se with a cold front moving through the area. Gusty nw wind in excess of 20kts is expected tonight in the wake of the cold front but the wind wl become lighter Monday.
All the precipitation associated with the wave of low pressure to our south has moved out of our area.
Surface wise, a ridge of high pressure lies on the lower Straits of Florida with a developing cold front draped from eastern Tennessee southward into the south central Gulf of Mexico, just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light and variable winds becoming southwest along with increasing clouds will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s overnight.
719 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Weak surface and upper level ridging over the North country tonight will shut down residual light snow showers and provide quiet weather tonight and Monday.
An upper low and trough remains well offshore but it is sending a southwest flow into the area and pumping up a transitory ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Monday should be a sunny and dry day with clouds increasing in the afternoon as the low moves closer to the coast and a frontal system approaches. Temperatures should be several degrees warmer than today.
/ISSUED 1003 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ With the cold front clearing our far offshore waters. Clearing skies from north to south with cold and dry air advection lowering sunrise (inland) temperatures into the lower to middle 40s/coastal readings into the lower 50s.
815 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure will continue to provide fair and dry weather for the region through Monday.
Still looks like temperatures will cool to the freezing mark in the advisory area by late tonight, allowing for up to 2 inches of accumulation. A low pressure area will pass east of the Mid-State by 06z, with gusty north winds and a transitioning precipitation pattern developing from west to east overnight. Rain is expected to change to a mix of rain and snow, as colder air pushes in from the north, on the back side of the low.
651 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 As an upper trough makes its way across the middle Mississippi Valley today, an area of high pressure is slowly building into mid-America from the northwest and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. Lingering cloud cover is expected to clear overnight tonight from west to east across the area, allowing temperatures to radiate down into the low 20s by early Monday morning.
Cold front approaches north Florida late tonight accompanied by an increase in pre-frontal moisture, a weak mid level vort lobe sliding east ahead of the main short wave trough, and a large swath of upper level jet divergence. The cold front will move into the northern CWA by mid morning Monday, sweeping across the central and southern counties by mid to late afternoon. SW-W winds will increase to around 20KT well offshore late tonight-early Monday ahead of the strong cold front.
620 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Some breezy NRLY winds will be seen this evening as the upper level trough rotates over the state.
The trough has minimal moisture to work with, thus not expecting anything more than isolated showers. Continued cool, though slightly warmer at most locations.
But to the west visible satellite shows dry slot starting to slide in ahead of the descending upper level low in Missouri. On the surface a broad area of low pressure was oriented over northwest Alabama and northeast Mississippi. scattered showers early will turn to a steadier precipitation shield over the north by sunset with snow mixing in at times as the dynamic upper level low slides into Western Kentucky and temperatures fall into the 30s. Short term model guidance has been suggesting all day that a developing deformation zone will swing through west Tennessee behind the low with precipitation changing to all snow well before freezing temperatures move in. High pressure will build into the region late tomorrow.
Surface analysis had 1008mb low over northeast Tennessee with the trailing cold front near Interstate 59 in our southeast zones. Some clearing was noted on satellite imagery behind the cold front but the closed low noted spinning over western Tennessee will help send some stratus our way after midnight. This low will continue tracking east southeast through Monday morning and bring a decrease in cloud cover to our CWA by mid morning.
716 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 A low pressure system will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
This short wave trough moves out of southeast Wyoming and across the forecast area by late in the day on Monday. Nothing more than a transitional increase in higher clouds is expected with the short wave trough aloft given the overall dry airmass in place.
1057 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the western Dakotas, with clear skies and light winds across the area. Upper level ridging will dominate the weather over the next several days, with a significant warming trend in most areas by midweek.
950 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Gusty nnwly winds continue to usher in much cooler and drier airmass this evening. /issued 653 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ High pressure building across the region will allow for northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts tonight.
VFR to marginal MVFR ceiling conditions will prevail along the north central gulf coast region overnight as a cold front sweeps through the area. There remains potential of the eastward passage of lingering showers over the local area this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Frontal passage occurs this evening, bringing a more established northwest flow, lowering deep layer thickness values and resultant cooler overnight lows in its wake.
CWFA pretty much snow free this afternoon as upper low pressure that brought us the morning snow moves southeast. Extended the High WInd Watch east into the Panhandle for Monday night.
Did not make any changes to the min temps which should be in the low to mid 60s, slightly above average. Broad H100-H70 ridge axis will drop into the nrn peninsula in response to a frontal trof sagging into the Deep South. Dynamic forcing will be quite weak with the anticyclone overhead, but the dvlpg S/SE flow will push aftn temps into the L/M80s along the coast and M/U80s over the interior. WX pattern is a classic set up for seabreeze convergence over the interior, though with limited moisture and instability, overall coverage will be on the low side. Shallow sfc trof over the lcl Atlc will dissipate as a broad ridge axis over the W Atlc meanders btwn the FL Panhandle and the central Peninsula.
Decreasing cloud coverage, but chilly conditions, expected today with building high pressure.
/issued 910 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018/ Heading into a another quiet overnight with high pressure influence still over the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
The cooler and drier weather that everyone has enjoyed will come to an end (briefly) during the early part of the work week. Meanwhile, high pressure in the mid and low levels slowly slides east of the area, allowing the winds to shift throughout the day and contain more of an onshore component by tonight.
High pressure will be settling over the area tonight and then shifting to our east by Monday. Temperatures along the Highway 20 corridor were in the low 30s. In the snow affected areas, temperatures were in the low to mid 20s. Roads are mostly wet, with some minor slush reported on some bridge surfaces. Monday, high pressure slides east with a return to southeast winds and afternoon highs rebounding into the low/mid 40s.
A fast moving cold front will cross northern and central Utah Monday.
The first driver will be warm air advection ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.
This wave will translate cyclonically around the persistent closed low over Hudson Bay and begin to generate impacts here late tonight.
911 PM PDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A low pressure trough off the coast will drift inland through Monday, deepening the marine layer, and spreading clouds and cooling well inland across the valleys and onto the lower coastal slopes.
910 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Heading into a another quiet overnight with high pressure influence still over the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
854 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 The cold front continues to make slow, but steady, southwards progress toward South Central Texas. NAM and GFS solutions are both trending toward a compromise solution of a cold front entering the Nrn Hill Country and areas on the N/NE side of the Austin Metro area.
In addition, temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s to around 30 across portions of northeast Oklahoma north of Interstate 44 and with light freezing drizzle continuing, a winter weather advisory has been issued for aforementioned areas. Light freezing drizzle should begin to taper off by late evening, however freezing precip could re-expand back north late tonight.
Accumulating snow is likely between midnight and sunrise with the highest amounts projected in a band where mid level frontogenesis results from divergence via a jet couplet. Decreasing cloud coverage but chilly conditions expected Monday with building high pressure.
A low level ridge will hold across Alabama through Monday, producing a stable and relatively dry air mass.
By Monday afternoon, however, a sfc warm front will lift northward and rain chances will be on the decrease.
This WAA is not expected to bring temperatures up to normal as the low level stratus is expected to be stubborn and hold on as long as possible.
635 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 High pressure remains in place over the Northland tonight into Monday. Quiet, but breezy, conditions will continue this afternoon and evening as high pressure ridging remains the primary weather influence across the Northland. An area of low pressure will move from the Rockies tonight into eastern Wyoming on Monday.
01Z Surface analysis this evening places a cold front between Savannah, TN back through Northwest Mississippi south of Tunica. the result of a nearly stalled out cold front near I-40. Winds north of the front were breezy from the northeast providing for wind chills down near freezing. but cooler 50s will hang on across the far north.
In true April fashion, a strong cold front will drop southward on Monday, tightening the pressure gradient across the region and increasing the winds early on in the day. The moisture ahead of and along the cold front dropping down from the northwest is pretty marginal, with most of the moisture that is currently across Idaho and Montana skipping the Rockies and jumping out east of the region into the Midwest.
Temps tonight will bottom out in the 60s with daytime highs on Monday again climbing into the lower to mid 80s.
842 PM PDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A vigorous low pressure system will bring rain and snow to the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades into Monday.
757 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 High pressure returns for today and Monday, should be quite pleasant even as temperatures trend below normal.
A bit warmer airmass over the area this aftn/eve as aftn temps have reached the 20s to around 30. Coldest temps tonight NW MN and parts of the DVL basin where high pressure and dry airmass will hold the longest. In this area temps will fall back into the lower single digits. 12Z Tue - 00Z Thu Upper level trough was located over the southern BC coast. Thu - Sun Longwave trough over southern Hudson Bay will move to eastern Canada and weaken. Low amplitude longwave ridge builds over western North America through the period. Cold front is expected to move through the area Thu as a short wave rotates around northern stream.
As the low passes to our south tonight the surface pressure gradient should weaken and winds will decrease. The highest snow totals for the day should be in central Wisconsin where isolated totals around an inch are expected.
Along with the lower ceilings, area of drizzle are expected to develop across much of the area. /issued 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018/ Temperatures, at or just below freezing for some, drizzle and perhaps some freezing drizzle, and wind are the main forecast concerns. Any freezing drizzle that does occur should be light and result in limited impacts. With areas reaching subfreezing temperatures being at or just after their climatological last freeze date, and with temperatures at or below 28F being unlikely, we decided not to issue a Freeze Warning at this time. Where temperatures were at or below freezing we included "drizzle or freezing drizzle". Warm surface temperatures and temperatures not substantially below freezing should limit impacts. Some bridges and overpasses could become slick though.
Temperatures along the Highway 20 corridor were in the low 30s. In the snow affected areas, temperatures were in the low to mid 20s. Roads are mostly wet, with some minor slush reported on some bridge surfaces. Monday, high pressure slides east with a return to southeast winds and afternoon highs rebounding into the low/mid 40s.
Temps in southeast IL from I-70 south will drop below freezing during mid evening. Weak high pressure of 1023 mb over the northern ohio river valley Monday morning and briefly returns dry and cool wx overnight and Monday morning. Models have trended a bit faster and further north with this low pressure track.
/DL/22/ Tonight and Monday: A cold front continues to stall out as it creeps southward into the Delta, now extending from Pine Bluff AR to Clarksdale to Corinth. The front will stall across the ArkLaMiss Delta overnight, bringing an increase in low cloudiness and perhaps a shower to the far northwest corner of the area, before lifting northward again Monday as a warm front. With warm southerly flow continuing tomorrow, another warm day is anticipated with highs again above normal reaching the low 80s over a good chunk of the area.
An upper jet over the northeast United States is producing strong divergence aloft over the lower Ohio Valley with moving. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 74 56 76 / 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 69 56 74 / 30 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 51 67 56 74 / 40 30 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 64 50 74 / 50 30 20 20.
Mid level clouds will be on the increase by mid evening as mid level warm air advection increases ahead of the next short wave trough that will be digging into the northern Rockies area.
Today on the plains ended up on the cooler side due to a stronger inversion than forecasted. This will allow for warmer and drier conditions overnight and into Monday, along with the start of some downsloping winds. The lee-side trough will deepen significantly Monday along the urban corridor in the morning then push out east in the afternoon. Much warmer surface temperatures, readings in the 70s across the plains and 40s to upper 50s for the mountains will create dry adiabatic sounding allowing for the strengthening winds aloft to mix down easier, mixing with the surface gradient winds.
Scattered areas of light freezing drizzle continue this evening across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Latest HRR/00Z NAM continues to indicate the potential for additional areas of light freezing drizzle to develop after midnight south of the I-44 corridor, extended east into far northwest Arkansas.
The evening local forecast showed moderate easterly breezes in the lowest few thousand feet, agreeing nicely with the more recent KBYX VWP loop. A relatively deep trough is moving eastward from our longitude, and that northerly upper level flow is hampering any significant convective development nearby, despite more instability and available moisture than what we've seen over the last few evenings. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1987, the high temperature at Key West International Airport was 65 degrees. In addition, this high temperature of 65 degrees is tied as the coolest maximum temperature ever observed in Key West during the month of April.
Cold front remains on track to cross SE Oregon and SW Idaho later tonight and early Monday morning. Have seen little change in timing among the models, including the high resolution runs. Showers increasing in coverage this evening ahead of a cold front with mountain obscuration. Cold front will move across KBKE/KBNO around 9z/Mon, KBOI around 12z/Mon, KTWF/ KJER around 15z/Mon. Cold front may produce heavy showers along the front with IFR to local LIFR conditions, and gusty W-NW winds up to 40kt. Expect clearing skies after 15z/Mon with scattered MVFR/IFR snow showers developing across the higher terrain during the afternoon, VFR elsewhere.
with freezing drizzle across most of NW AR and all of the NE OK sites. Freezing temperatures continue to be observed in many locations northwest of I-44 and with a bit more cooling anticipated through the night have issued a Freeze Warning for much of NE OK and into Benton County AR for tonight. Will continue to see very weak isentropic lift tonight above the shallow cold air, but it appears this influence will shift southeast with time and thus any precip that falls in areas seeing temps below freezing would be in the form of patchy light freezing drizzle. Temperatures will slowly climb Monday and should finally warm back above freezing by late Monday morning. Temperatures will then continue to rise Monday night as stronger warm advection commences ahead of the next upper system and cold front.
957 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 High pressure returns for today and Monday, should be quite pleasant even as temperatures trend below normal.
the result of a nearly stalled out cold front near I-40. Winds north of the front were breezy from the northeast providing for wind chills down near freezing. but cooler 50s will hang on across the far north.
Plenty of mid and high level clouds continue to stream across the area tonight in response to a weak trough over the region. Overnight lows will be similar to last night, or a few degrees cooler. Temperatures will be slightly cooler early this week, but still above normal for early April as a couple weak troughs move across the region.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: This week's progressive pattern begins with a low pressure system churning over southern BC this evening. The trough moves east through Montana through Monday evening while the Arctic low pushes south. Temperature profiles suggest the possibility of rain/freezing rain at times.
Still there are some MVFR ceilings under the high clouds especially along the coast affecting KLBX/KGLS/KHOU/KSGR. Aformentioned cold front in the previous aviation discussion has pushed south but slowing down. Overpeck Temperatures as of 9 PM have fallen into the low 70s, with dew points lingering in the mid-upper 60s across the region. A cold front, currently draped just north of SE TX across Bell, Limestone, and Anderson counties will continue to slowly sag southward through the overnight hours. Onshore flow will prevail by Monday morning, as the cold front regresses back to the north.
528 PM MDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Weak upper ridging within deep northwest flow continues across the northern Great Plains. Snow will spread southeastward late Monday into Monday night as a strong cold front pushes through. There is high confidence that the northern half of the CWA will see the higher accumulations, but there is still uncertainty as to how much snow will accumulate Monday and Monday night.
1143 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 As of 04z, the cold front had made it through the TXK and TYR terminals and shortly should be through the GGG and ELD terminals. Either way, the front should stall somewhere in the vicinity of the LFK/SHV/MLU terminals before returning back to the north as a warm front during the late morning and afternoon hours on Monday but not before we still should see at least MVFR ceilings forming later tonight/pre-post dawn hours Monday at the LFK/SHV/MLU terminals. The cold front has just passed at Tyler with still upper 60s, but gusty NW winds. Behind the cold front winds are NW at 15 mph.
BY Monday afternoon, however, a sfc warm front will lift northward and rain chances will be on the decrease.
NAM and GFS solutions are both trending toward a compromise solution of a cold front entering the Nrn Hill Country and areas on the N/NE side of the Austin Metro area.
A cold front positioned over Central Texas will stall across the state tonight. Highs on Monday will again be in the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Plains, and mid/upper 80s to the east. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible Monday across the Victoria Crossroads as a weak disturbance traverses overhead ahead of the upper level trough digging into the western CONUS.
Brief freezing drizzle possible across KROG/KXNA early in the period as well. Scattered areas of light freezing drizzle continue this evening across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Latest HRR/00Z NAM continues to indicate the potential for additional areas of light freezing drizzle to develop after midnight south of the I-44 corridor, extended east into far northwest Arkansas.
High pressure currently over southern Missouri will drift east toward the Ohio Valley through tonight. While the synoptic setup and antecedent conditions would support fog formation across the area (light winds and high soil moisture) the high clouds overhead through most of the night should keep fog from becoming more than patchy. Dry weather continues Monday and Monday night with high pressure moving through the region.
951 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Surface ridging centered over the middle/lower Mississippi River bringing in drier air into the area is leading to a lull in what has otherwise been an active pattern across the forecast area. A weak trough is currently just west of the forecast area, and will move through later tonight. This trough will not bring any rain, but rather some passing mid/upper level clouds.
651 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 A cold front will stall near the area overnight into Monday.
642 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Pretty much a carbon copy of yesterday as a strong U/L ridge remains over the area creating large scale subsidence and above normal temperatures. A cold frontal will approach north Florida on Monday which will allow boundary layer winds to become increasingly onshore through the day Gulf waters.
Pressure is rising as a broad scale upper level ridge builds. The most appreciable effect that this wave may have on sensible weather over the Duluth CWA is to drag the nose of warmer 925/850 mb temps to the northeast in advance of it, resulting in a substantial warming trend for much of this week.
946 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Building high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions through the first part of the work week.
418 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Dry west to northwest flow will continue for the next 24 hours with only orographic cumulus over ridges expected. Over the next 24 hours, the approaching trough will split and the first signs of that can be seen just off the WA and OR coasts. The NAM12 is the first model to close off the 500 mb low over northern CA Monday afternoon, where the GFS and ECMWF move the trough slowly and develop the closed low late Monday evening.
706 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Building high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions through the first part of the work week.
930 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 High pressure will weaken across the area tonight and then give way to a cold front that will slowly move through the region Monday night.
605 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Low pressure will track northeast this evening bringing an end to the precipitation across the region.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s across northwestern interior sections to the lower 70s across the east coast metro areas. Upper level ridging will continue to expand westward on Monday which will continue to allow the southeasterly wind flow to continue. High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across the interior.