Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The convection will continue until around sunset this evening, after which time, streamer activity will affect the Lower Texas coastal waters and the extreme inland coastal area.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the period. Convection was ongoing across northern KS closer to the low level baroclinic zone. with low-level thermal fields suggesting temps about 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Ridge axis is forecast to remain across the Treasure coast but a little less suppression aloft and a little more moisture should produce a higher coverage of storms, 40-50 percent, over the interior/Volusia assocd with boundary collisions. While high temperatures will continue to be a little above normal in the low to mid 90s, heat indices should not be quite as high due to less suppression and more clouds/rain chances. Mid-level trough over north Florida and low-level ridge axis over south Florida will keep the area being in a fairly deep southwesterly flow.
Closed upper low moved onshore overnight and is currently centered across the northern Sac Valley. Temperatures running several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with afternoon highs expected in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees in the Valley. Low will weaken and slowly meander east over the next several days as high pressure over the desert southwest expands toward the area.
Do not expect convection to increase in coverage as MSAS shows region of best low level convergence already over inland areas, where better coverage of convection is located over the Lower Texas coast into the southern Coastal Bend. Cumulus becoming more congested from the VCT area and northeast with convection increasing along the Lower Texas coast. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over Coahuila moving slowly westward. With weak low level convergence along sea breeze boundary and some weak assistance for lift with divergence aloft to the east of the upper low, convective activity could become scattered in coverage over the inland coastal plains into the eastern Brush Country this afternoon.
112 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Today will be dry and a bit warmer.
154 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Upper level ridging just west of the Rockies will build during the next few days and our upper level flow pattern will go from a westerly to a northwesterly pattern. A cold front/wind shift/drier airmass boundary extends from western Lake Superior to a low pressure area in central Kansas. As cooler air filters in this afternoon a few scattered low clouds will form. High pressure will continue to build overnight and Thursday. The following couple days will be dominated by high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft.
330 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Widespread cloud cover and scattered showers have persisted through the day likely in response to a mid/upper trough which is currently pushing through the area this hour. The axis of this trough appears to be over central Iowa and north central and will continue to move east with time. Once these storms move out of the area and the boundary sags south cooler conditions will persist through the rest of the week and the weekend.
Outflow from showers/thunderstorms may outpace the trough overnight, depending on whether storms can become organized or not. A cold front will push slowly across northern and central Oklahoma tonight through Thursday afternoon.
429 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 An area of low pressure will move east from the eastern Great Lakes overnight tonight.
With this in mind, have raised lows a few degrees into the lower and middle 60s across southwest Nebraska. The large scale pattern favors weak northwest to west flow across the forecast area late week as a ridge axis shifts east from the Rockies.
620 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 A cold front will pass through the region Thursday, bringing a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the area, especially south of Route 24. Lows will drop into the lower 70s tonight with highs around 80 on Thursday. Lingering pops Thursday as main trough approaches with cold front moving through. High pressure will dominate conditions through most if not all of the period. As a result, dry forecast will prevail with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and comfortable humidity levels. Wrn bound of low level ridge axis continues to hold off better low level moisture push in from the sw and will delay potential shower mention until mid morning Thu. Otherwise upstream sfc cyclone has trended even further south and expected to track through srn IN Thu aftn.
Upper low over northern CA today. Upper low opens and shifts northeast through Thursday, sliding across East Idaho during the afternoon and early evening.
322 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Large mid level trough and low centered over Hudson Bay will push a weak shallow cold front currently across Wisconsin and the U. Models shunt this higher theta-e more eastward leaving the southeastern half of the cwa more moisture starved hence less likelihood for shower and thunderstorm activity, especially with loss of diurnal component. The cold front will continue slowly south across lower Michigan Thursday morning before exiting into Ohio in the afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals, though a sfc trof and incoming cold front will bring thunderstorms to the region. The sfc trof will help initiate thunderstorm activity BTWN 27/18Z thru 27/04Z in the region, though highest confidence exists at KDHT where VCTS is mentioned. The next best opportunity will occur with incoming cold front. Due to incoming cold front, wind shifts from southerly to northerly can be expected at KDHT and KGUY AFT 27/03Z with winds at all terminals around 10 to 15 kts. Starting tonight, a cold front will slowly approach the northern combined Panhandles bringing showers and storms to the region. A low amplitude meridional pattern will limit progression southward of the main lax gradient along the cold front.
307 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data depicted a closed upper low near James Bay with an associated trough trailing southwest into the mid MO Valley. In the low levels, 18z mesoanalysis suggests that the primary surface boundary stretches from central IA through east-central NE before linking with an area of low pressure over north-central KS.
1121 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Temperatures will cool today following the passage of a cold front and are expected to remain cooler in the 80s through the remainder of the week.
This afternoon increasing northerly flow at and near storm top level on the west side of the upper level trough that is currently moving across northern California appears to be disrupting thunderstorm formation west of the Cascades. The further west one goes the lower the risk of thunderstorms. After storms wind down from west to east this evening through tonight we expect a couple of days of drier conditions with temperatures the same or even a little cooler than today.
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 A cold front across the central Great Lakes will drop southeast across the region on Thursday as low pressure moves through the lower Ohio Valley.
208 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Cold front has cleared the forecast area and continues to move south. The models are dry for Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge strengthens and the mean flow turns more southward. The models still show an upper level ridge amplifying over the Rockies and placing the region under a northwest upper level flow.
1139 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Upper level analysis shows high pressure across the southern plains with an area of low pressure over Canada resulting in southwest flow across the forecast area. At the surface, the cold front is well south and east of the area extending from the Great Lakes area though Nebraska with high pressure beginning to build in from the west. Overall, temperatures today will be cooler, but around average. The upper ridge begins to rebuild over the Rockies through the weekend with pacific moisture streaming into the northern plains.
357 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Strong cold front brings thunderstorms Thursday.
417 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across Central and Eastern Kansas this afternoon ahead of a cold front sagging southward through the Central Plains. the cold front will continue to make its way southeastward toward the CWA with shower and thunderstorm potential developing late tonight across parts of Northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures overnight should again remain on the warm side with lows in the mid to upper 70s for most locations as dewpoints hold in the low 70s across much of the region. The cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma during the morning hours Thursday and should remain north of Interstate 40 for much of the day before trying to push southward overnight Thursday night.
619 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday.
345 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast through Thursday.
259 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Currently - A bifurcated ridge to our north is resulting in a fairly light pressure pattern across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. The surface environment remains moist and unstable with weak mid level ridging. Heading into the weekend, a low pressure system will develop over the southeastern United States. As a result, the Atlantic ridge will retreat, causing local winds to weaken and clock south then southwest through the weekend. There is a good amount of model to model difference in the set up of the lower level flow. Winds will gradually clock southeast, south, then southwest to west through the weekend as a low pressure system develops over the southeastern United States.
129 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure over the New England States will continue to move eastward through the day. This will allow low pressure over the Central Plains to move toward the region on Thursday. As the low moves across southern Ohio Thursday evening it will drag a cold front across the area.
251 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight. A cold front moves across the area on Thursday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
401 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 The center of the upper level ridge axis remains out west across the TX pandhandle with the eastern periphery extending well into the SE CONUS. A modest cu field managed to develop this afternoon across the entire region but did very little to keep temperatures from climbing well into the lower to mid 90s.
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 A cold front will work through the region through Thursday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially south of Route 24. Lows will drop into the lower 70s with highs around 80 on Thursday. Lingering pops Thursday as main trough approaches with cold front moving through. High pressure will dominate conditions through most if not all of the period. As a result, dry forecast will prevail with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and comfortable humidity levels.
The upper ridge will continue to build over the region, bringing hot weather over our CWA with high temperatures expected to be in the 90s at nearly all locations. With the positioning of the upper ridge and surface disturbance, there will be a pretty good pull of monsoonal moisture from the southwestern US. Conditional instability will be a main player with the early portion of this period as upper vort maxes round the crest of the ridge.
211 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Strong cold front brings thunderstorms Thursday.
Very moist airmass with weak trough advancing into the area from NW WI. South winds remain below small craft criteria today with lighter wind regime tonight with trough passage.
330 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, bringing sunshine with a few fair weather cumulus clouds and calm winds to the state. A corridor of meager high based instability was present in southeastern Montana, possibly into far southwestern North Dakota, aided by dew points that managed to reach into the low 50s.
424 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will build across the region this afternoon. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday night.
Low pressure system and its associated clouds passing to the south of the forecast area will allow for some mid and high level clouds to drift over the southeast portion of the forecast area today and into part of tonight and there may also be enough instability and triggers to form isolated thunderstorms in that extreme edge of the forecast area as well.
134 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure moves off the coast late today through tonight. A weak cold front will slowly approach on Thursday, and move through Thursday night.
140 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Mean ridging can be expected over the region through the period. Moist southerly flow will persists in NE WY ahead of the next impulse with convection redeveloping along a stationary trough there.
231 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Upper level ridging just west of the Rockies will build during the next few days and our upper level flow pattern will go from a westerly to a northwesterly pattern. A cold front/wind shift/drier airmass boundary extends from western Lake Superior to a low pressure area in central Kansas. As cooler air filters in this afternoon a few scattered low clouds will form. High pressure will continue to build overnight and Thursday. The following couple days will be dominated by high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft.
230 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Cold front has cleared the forecast area and continues to move south. The models are dry for Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge strengthens and the mean flow turns more southward. Overall, the upper level ridge that dominated the weather pattern will slide further west, eventually taking shape over Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. What does this mean for the Tri-State Region? With the high pressure ridge further west, this means our piece of the High Plains will be under northwest flow aloft. As disturbances move around the high pressure perimeter, storms should develop over the Rockies, spreading east to southeast over the plains. Further, a cold front will move through and more or less remain stationary along to south of I-70, providing a boundary for additional storms to develop along.
216 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure moves off the coast late today through tonight. A weak cold front will slowly approach on Thursday, and move through Thursday night.
201 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Typical summer pattern in place into this weekend with the upper ridge overhead providing hot temperatures with storms confined to the higher terrain. Midland Intl has only hit 100 degrees once this month which is far from our hottest month on record last July! Not much change through the weekend until the upper ridge weakens and shifts slightly west.
636 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will push east of the region this evening. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday night.
/issued 1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ Despite morning cloud cover in some areas, temperatures thus far are already running 1-2 degrees warmer at most locations compared to this time yesterday.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a ridge extending across the Central and Southern Appalachians. Deep layer shear will increase slightly as the trough approaches into the 20-30 kt range for the 0-6 km bulk shear. With this, expect numerous to widespread showers developing ahead of the trough tomorrow afternoon. We will likely start the period with ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the area ahead of an incoming upper-level trough. Not too often do we see a trough of the amplitude this late in the year.
A cold front will push slowly across northern and central Oklahoma tonight through Thursday afternoon.
Upper low continues to evolve slowly and is near Lewistown as of 3 pm. There is also a cold front associated with this energy. This activity will persist into the evening then gradually taper off thru the night as the low moves slowly to the northeast.
1103 AM PDT Tue Jun 13 2017 It will remain windy over the Inland Northwest today with cooler temperatures.
250 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Early afternoon GOES-16 water vapor loop showed a strong upper low centered over south central MT. With 700/850mb CAG-CPR gradients of 55-60m through 03Z, the High Wind Warning will remain in effect until 8 PM.
247 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 An upper low over Montana this afternoon will lift northeastward across the northern Plains tonight into Wednesday. The trailing end of the upper trough axis will move eastward across Kansas tonight into Wednesday morning. Weakening inhibition, combined with lift from the approaching upper trough and dryline convergence, should allow fairly isolated storms to develop near the western fringes of the forecast area by early this evening. As the upper low lifts into Canada on Wednesday, the trailing frontal boundary is progged to stretch from northeast Kansas to south-central Kansas, to northwest Oklahoma.
Thunderstorm coverage is a little greater over the higher terrain across Southwest Virginia this afternoon with isolated formation on the Cumberland Plateau and foothills of the Appalachians.
226 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure remains off the southeast coast.
Dry weather and a day to day warming trend will occur through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over California.
1120 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 The very strong upper low will track to the northeast across the northern Rockies and High Plains today. Much cooler and drier conditions will occur for our area in the wake of the cold front that blasted east last evening. Isolated t-storms are possible mainly over the western half of the CWA this afternoon as cooler air moves overhead, but chances are overall low. The upper low will continue to wrap up to the north on Wednesday although fast zonal flow will remain overhead.
A rather anomalous upper low (by mid-June standards) was centered across western Wyoming overnight. While the upper low itself will continue to lift north into Montana today, a spoke of mid level potential vorticity will swing around the base of the trough across Colorado this afternoon.
Low to mid level ridge centered over the SE CONUS is progged to build WWD with time, while an upper level ridge over NRN MX expands and builds EWD. The forecast grids followed suit, with already low rain chances decreasing further from the previous forecast and high temperatures nudging a bit warmer. The ridge aloft is progged erode as a trof digs into the Central Gulf Coast late in the week and into the weekend, with models advertising a weak front limping in the area late MON into TUE. Decreasing rain chances are expected the rest of the week and through the weekend as high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
143 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. Ridge extending westward from Atlantic high pressure will shift south of the area through the second half of the week under very weak flow aloft.
333 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 The forecast area finds itself between the semi-permanent sub- tropical upper ridge to our south and a pretty strong closed low over the northern Rockies. Mid and upper level southwesterly flow over the southern High Plains is helping the dryline mix eastward into the western part of the forecast area while east of the dryline healthy moisture exists indicated by surface dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s across the eastern half of the forecast area. The northern Rockies upper low will lift northeastward into the Prairie Provinces Wednesday, allowing the upper ridge to our south to expand northward.
So far ridging is just holding over our forecast area, but storms have formed just north of Madison, IN, headed towards Cincinnati.
110 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the area maintaining fair weather today with temperatures near normal. Upper ridge has shifted east slightly and is centered mainly just offshore the Mid Atlantic coast. Upper disturbance currently over the Southern Appalachians/Western NC will move slowly east into central VA/NC through tonight while offshore upper ridge continues to weaken and shift east. The upper disturbance just to our north and offshore upper ridge continuing to weaken and shift east, will provide a shift in wind direction aloft from the persistent S to SW of recent days to more W to NW later today and tonight.
Tonight will be dry and cooler and cold again east of the Cascades with light winds and clear skies. This will allow temperatures to drop off fairly quickly after dark and they are likely to drop near or below freezing in many locations. Dry and warmer weather continues Wednesday with temperatures close to normal for this time of the year.
Tomorrow a weak short wave is modeled to move through, meanwhile the weak upper low that we had today will not be around, so these two features may offset for more of the same.
334 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front, will drop southward through the region this evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending by later tonight.
320 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 The upper low was over central Montana this afternoon with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado. NAM12 spatial cross-sections show mountain wave developing tonight but this should impact primarily the higher east facing mountain slopes and higher foothills.
152 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Cooler conditions and northwest flow aloft will continue through tonight with about a 5-7 degree warm-up on Wednesday. The main long range models show a ridge consolidating over the Southwestern U.
435 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Active weather across the western CWA has taken up time this afternoon, so will just hit the highlights here. With mid- level troughing and gradually increasing deep layer shear approaching from the west, strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon.
253 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 An upper level low will pull northward and exit the region tonight.
249 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Upper level analysis has ridging across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS with strong closed low over the northern Rockies. At the surface, low pressure is located across southeast SD with inverted trof extending into eastern Montana.
Aloft, water vapor imagery clearly shows two vorticity maxima, one located with the parent upper low in southwest MT, with a secondary maximum developing right now in southeast WY. Much more tranquil pattern expected in the extended with westerly flow expected for the next several day as upper level low pressure system works towards and eventually north of the Great Lakes.
This past weekend's ridge has broken down to some degree on its eastern edge as an upper trough shifts east across Southeastern Canada. The weakening ridge has allowed for a corridor of weak short wave energy to ride southeast out of the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians. However, the corridor around the top of the upper ridge will remain in place allowing for a little better chance for showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. At the beginning of this period the upper ridge is breaking down as a large upper trough starts to encroach on the area.
1138 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest SD, with an occluded front stretching northwest back to low pressure over central MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure centered over south central MT, with strong jet feeding northward across CO, eastern WY, and into eastern MT. Temps range from the lower 50s across parts of northeast WY to near 70 over south central SD. As Upper low moves northwest of the region today, the drier air will continue to push eastward across the area. A few high based showers or thundershowers could develop in the afternoon over northeast WY into the western Black Hills area and far northwest SD as some energy rotates around the low to the north.