Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
323 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Slightly cooler temperatures will continue through the evening as an upper level ridge amplifies to the west. As the ridge axis pushes east tomorrow, western and central North Dakota will transition to southwest flow aloft. A few of the high resolution models show the potential for some precipitation approaching the west by Sunday mornings. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours over the northwest associated with an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous along the cold front by the evening hours on Sunday.
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Aloft: The flow over the CONUS was moderately amplified with a Wrn ridge anchored by a subtropical high over the Desert SW. This trof will cross the CWA tonight. tilting the Wrn ridge with this small high migrating over the Cntrl Plns by sunset tomorrow. The high will weaken as it sinks into the SE USA. The front should reach its Srn-most extent around I-80 tonight and then lift back N and E as a warm front tomorrow as low pres advances into the Canadian Prairies. Tonight: Any patchy cirrostratus (which will be more widespread over the SW CWA) will be shoved S with the passage of the trof. Would not be surprised to see some spots remain in the low 70s from Osborne- Beloit.
/issued 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/ A broad upper ridge over the Western US will shift east over the coming week. However an upper low/inverted trough over Northern Mexico looks to hang around for the next several days and could be a wx producer. By late in the week the upper ridge will shift back to the west. Expected more sun today which will result in warmer temperatures as 90s return. It was the inverted trough that was responsible for storms yesterday that continue into this morning. Today expect most storms to be along and west of the Pecos over the higher elevations. Have rain chances favoring the higher elevations out through the extended.
A band of thunderstorms, some with torrential downpour, is expected to continue sinking slowly southward for the remainder of the day, ahead of diffuse cold front. A weak cold front will slip across our area this afternoon and tonight and push the best rain chance south of our TAF sites by early this evening.
240 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and troughing over the Pacific NW and a trough in New England. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and early evening and kick off some low chance to slight chance pops.
High pressure has begun to nose down out of Canada into North Dakota. The edge of the high will skip across northeast South Dakota tonight, and with low humidity we should see fairly pleasant temperatures. As the high continues on its path southeast, a gradient forms across the state, about 10mb. We should mix fairly deeply as well, so will go a few degrees warmer and drier than blended guidance.
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak trough of low pressure will dissipate across the area this evening. Weak high pressure will move east across the area through Sunday evening.
High pressure will begin to erode and retreat westward Sunday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the highest concentration stretching from the big bend and eastern panhandle northward into adjacent sections of southern Georgia.
A weak closed upper low will remain nearly stationary in east central CO, within an upper ridge across the Central Plains into the Desert Southwest. The weak closed upper low will drift slowly east northeast into northwest Kansas, and bring a slight chance for thunderstorms to parts of Chase, Perkins, and Hayes Counties in the afternoon.
215 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure was centered just north of Bloomington early this afternoon, and will be shifting into the Ohio Valley this evening. Latest model guidance suggests a few showers/storms with it will be possible as soon as late Sunday morning across the northern CWA, but main threat remains with scattered afternoon and early evening storms as the cold front moves southward across the forecast area. Have continued the trend of raising the high temperatures from the model blends, solidly in the low-mid 90s most areas.
247 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure brings comfortable, dry weather the balance of the weekend.
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 WV imagery shows the inverted upper trough remains over Chihuahua, nosing NE into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The inverted trough is forecast to move slowly west over the next few days, and trying to nose up into the SW CONUS, shifting the upper ridge to north of the Arklatex by 12Z Tue. Hi PWATs are also forecast further west near the inverted trough. Increased moisture and the ridge centered well north will allow temperatures each day to stay right around normal.
347 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak trough of low pressure will dissipate across the area this evening. Weak high pressure will move east across the area through Sunday evening.
310 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Antecedent moisture over the region remains trapped under high pressure as seen in the 12z sounding with 0. 500 mb pattern will shift over the next 24 hours and bring the center of high pressure over the Great Basin eastward to center over southern Utah on Sunday night.
High pressure will build across the region over the next couple of days resulting in hot temperatures.
139 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 An upper level trough will cross northern New England today, while weak low pressure passes to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will occur along and in advance of this trough today. As the trough exits tonight, clearing and drier weather can be expected that will last into Sunday.
638 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will drift southeast to the Carolinas by Sunday evening.
103 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley will drift slowly east across the forecast area today. The high will slide SE Sunday allowing a cold front to push across the forecast area Sunday night. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi will drift slowly east today. The high slides SE Sunday allowing a cold front to approach from the NW.
Convective coverage is expected to increase by early afternoon as a weak cold front currently in Central Oklahoma and Central Arkansas slowly drifts southward towards the area.
303 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. Plenty of cloudiness is covering central NY and northeast Pa this afternoon due to a combination of ample low-level moisture and a general large-scale mid-level trough over the northeast U. A little ridging develops on Sunday ahead of the next system approaching from the Great Lakes. Based on this we are expecting to see more sunshine on Sunday and temperatures at least a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
1206 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air data depict an amplified mid-level ridge from the Great Basin to lee of the Canadian Rockies and a downstream trough across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Models showing quite a bit of cloud cover on Sunday which may help to keep temps a few degree cooler.
350 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 The lee side low in the midst of all the high pressure continues to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Satellite imagery indicates monsoon plume has become somewhat constricted as upper trough over NW NM advects drier air in from the east. Most of the plains will be dry, with warmer temps then yesterday. 100F readings will likely occur across all over the lower ark rvr valley. Lows tonight will be in the 60s plains with 40s and 50s in the higher country. Upper level high moves to the east of the region. Most abundant moisture will be over the mountains where have the highest PoPs and best chances for locally heavy downpours.
549 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The main challenge is timing of the weekend "cold frontal" passage and affect on temperatures and trends in precip/convective chances.
The hot, dry and windy conditions are expected to continue into this evening, with even breezy winds likely to remain well into tonight as the cold front pushes slowly east.
As far as the heat goes, made some minor adjustments to the high temperatures this afternoon, but generally only a degree or so and mainly higher. So the highest heat indices will be in the next few hours around 104, before the mixing and just ahead of the highest temperatures. High pressure was centered to our west and northwest.
Temp trends are rebounding with authority across much of the cntrl TN Valley this late Thu morning, from their earlier lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s. Unfortunately, dew pts are also trending in the lower/mid 70s for many areas, which is not making it very comfortable as far as the humidity goes. Low chances for showers/tstms also remain in place mainly for areas along/e of the I-65 corridor later today, as weak upper disturbances traverse swd along the ern fringe of the upper ridge pattern centered over the Midwest/Mid South regions.
Water Vapor satellite trends along with 12Z upper air analysis indicates an upper level ridge of high pressure situated across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. The high pressure currently over the Mid-South will weaken over the weekend along a frontal system moving toward the area from the Great Plains and an upper level disturbance along the Gulf Coast.
1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Excessive heat and humidity will be the story for the next 72 hours as an upper level ridge moves overhead stacking down to low level high pressure over the southern Mississippi Valley area. The result will be temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s which will allow heat index value to range from 105 to 115F over the region. The highest dewpoints will occur today for this event leading to the hottest day for heat index values especially north of the Missouri River, with 110-115F values over Atchison and Holt Counties.
1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The loan severe thunderstorm overnight that produced up to ping pong ball hail in Windom MN around 1 am is well out of the area with weak ridging occurring in the wake. As the day moves along troughing should increase across the Western High Plains which will bring a gradually increasing threat for thunderstorms to central SD. Capping will play a role in development so will keep the chances on the low side. As the trough spreads eastward the low and mid level warm air advection will increase with elevated instability likely around 1500 J/kg but pretty weak low and mid level shear.
212 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd, as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather pattern. This coupled with dewpoint temperatures in the middle 70s is resulting in Heat Index values at mid morning already running in the lower to middle 90s.
125 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 A building ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will bring seasonally hot summer-like weather through the weekend.
With a ridge in place temperatures continue warm. Cold air advection and tighter pressure gradient will result in stronger northwest winds along with cooler or more seasonal temperatures.
215 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The main challenge is timing of the weekend "cold frontal" passage and affect on temperatures and trends in precip/convective chances.
On Friday, a cold frontal boundary will begin a slow push east through the region, and by early afternoon there could be some isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along that boundary (and any leftover OFB's from overnight convection). LCL's may be a little bit on the high side (2500ft to 3500ft agl) for tornado potential, but for sure in the ball park. A trough will be overhead, extending from the parent lows across southern Saskatchewan and southeastern SD to eastern NE. The trough will exit east by 06Z (possibly lingering over our west central MN counties for another couple of hours). Otherwise, dry high pressure will slowly build into the region.
Activity should be winding down by 11 pm or so as the low levels continue to cool. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level low, off the NE FL coast, is expected to be moving through NE FL this evening and begin to drift slowly west Friday. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Our area will be between upper low to our west and upper high to our east.
The freezing level was 16,000 feet this morning, showing how warm the airmass is. The shower activity over the mountains this afternoon should begin taking a bit of a more northeastward track this evening as the embedded short wave aloft rotates around the strong upper ridge over the southern plains. Temperatures are also forecast to be a couple degrees cooler, owing to the slight increase in the amount of moisture present. The highest pops will be over the mountains and adjacent plains.
137 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Thunderstorms moving ahead of a cold front will move through the area this afternoon. High pressure and drier air will return for Friday. High pressure builds in for tonight, and low level moisture will likely result in valley fog development once again. High pressure and drier air returns for Friday into Friday night. Friday night is quiet, but a warm frontal zone will be positioned to our southwest.
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge nearly stationary. There were a few weak disturbances in the upper level flow rotating around the ridge. At the surface a warm front was moving north into Nebraska. During the evening a weak upper level short wave trough will move over the west edge of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered storm coverage may accompany this short wave trough. The majority of the storm activity will remain west and north of the forecast area, rotating around the upper level ridge over KS. During the afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach from the west. Accompanying the trough will be a weak cold front and isolated to scattered storm activity.
352 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Drier air has pushed in under the high which has shifted the focus for thunderstorm development across the western and northern portions of the forecast area. though high res models send an outflow boundary southward into the highway 50 corridor which could spark an isolated storm or two. Friday will be a more active day across the district as the upper high nudges eastward a bit allowing the monsoon plume to shift over more of the mountains.
Building high pressure will result in significant warming of daytime high temperatures for the interior this weekend.
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Thunderstorms moving ahead of a cold front will move through the area this afternoon. High pressure and drier air will return Friday. High pressure builds in for tonight, and low level moisture will likely result in valley fog development once again. High pressure and drier air returns for Friday into Friday night. A series of embedded short waves will rotate around the base of the upper trough and act in phase with multiple surface features to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms.
However, they are going to be few and far between, especially as the upper level ridge responsible for the heat starts to really exert itself. Anything that does fire up should remain east of I-65 where the ridge won't be as strong. Low level moisture and light to calm winds could exacerbate the lowered visibility.
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Cloud cover is helping keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than originally forecast. The high will gradually inch E into the Mid MS Vly. Surface: A quasi-stationary front extended from the lower GtLakes thru IL/IA and along the Neb/SD border into WY. This low is fcst to migrate into SW Neb (btwn IML-MCK) today and then remain quasi-stationary. but the 08Z HRRR suggests deep mixing S- SE of the low/incrsg S winds should force the boundary to lift back N to near I-80 this afternoon.
1152 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will persist over the area through the weekend.
Today and Tonight, The center of the upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across KS and northern OK and will build eastward into MO Tonight. Monsoonal moisture across the central rockies will cause thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours but these storms will only move northeast into the high plains of eastern CO and western NE during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings show deeper mixing across the western counties where dew points may drop into the lower to mid 60s during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints across the eastern counties will remain in the lower to mid 70s.
242 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The focus remains on thunderstorm potential this weekend as upper level ridging and dry mid to upper levels are replaced by a weakness in the ridge and the return of some monsoonal deeper moisture arriving from the west.
Warmer layer aloft hindering much rain activity, with only very isolated showers struggling to develop this early afternoon.
212 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Thunderstorms moving ahead of a cold front will move through the area this afternoon. High pressure and drier air will return for Friday. High pressure builds in for tonight, and low level moisture will likely result in valley fog development once again. High pressure and drier air returns for Friday into Friday night. A series of embedded short waves will rotate around the base of the upper trough and act in phase with multiple surface features to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms.
323 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Latest analysis shows low pressure centered over eastern Montana. A warm front extends eastward from the low into northern North Dakota and a dry line extends southward from the low into eastern Wyoming. The dry line will push into western South Dakota this evening followed by a weak cold front that will push southeastward across the region overnight. Thunderstorms have already developed in southeastern Montana and along the warm front in North Dakota. Might see some breezy areas in the area of the tighter sfc pressure gradient to the west of the low especially during the morning. Drier air will flow into the region as high pressure moves in behind the departing low.
Despite the slightly cooler temps across the N/NE, dewpoints well into the 70s will still create heat index values in excess of 100 degrees.
/18Z Update/ Sub-tropical ridge remains in control across the region. Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over the south central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and the pressure gradient across our CWA was weak.
Otherwise, extensive high pressure will build into the region tonight and hold firm through Friday.
Though low level moisture remains above normal, a mid level ridge is centered over the Southern High Plains and its influence extends south over the CWA. High pressure will continue over the Gulf, producing light to moderate southeast winds. VFR is expected through the next 24 hours with high pressure at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere dominating over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
252 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Expansive upper ridge dominates the southern CONUS this afternoon. By Friday night the persistent mid-level ridge over the central US begins to break down and zonal flow returns over the northern CONUS.
336 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 An upper level high pressure area will continue to build over the state tonight and Friday. An upper level low over moving across Florida today will move into Southeast Texas over the weekend.
/Issued 735 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017/ Upper low vicinity of the SC coast should drift south today and tonight to north FL and weaken. Otherwise the air mass is generally drier with the ridge building aloft but am not confident enough to leave pops out for the other areas. Friday should be similar with the upper ridge dominating. Afternoon temperatures should range in the low to mid 90s for much of the forecast area today and mostly mid 90s Friday. 41 The extended starts off with weakening high pressure over the region that will continue through the weekend. There is also a developing upper level low over the northeast Gulf Sat that may affect pops for the weekend and a frontal system moving into the area by Tue/Wed.
/ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/ The upper level high pressure ridge has drifted a bit more southward this morning. Still have a 500 mb trough into the coastal areas east of Freeport; however, the ridge was over these locations at 850 mb and 700 mb. There was also still a weak trough at the surface. The ridge has helped to suppress showers and storms for almost the entire area at mid morning.
Otherwise plenty of sunshine and temps rebounding into the low-mid 80s in sunny areas. High pressure will propagate across the region today advecting in a stable airmass (light winds and mostly sunny sky with temperatures in the 80s).
435 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Clearing skies and dry weather expected tonight into Friday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. A frontal boundary is then forecast to set up in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes this weekend, potentially bringing wet and unsettled weather at times. Expect skies clear across the entire region overnight with weak high pressure beginning to build southeast. Friday, an area of weak central Canadian-sourced high pressure will settle southeast from the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will be seasonable in the upper 70s to mid 80s with a little more comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints drop back into the lower 60s with northwest flow. High pressure to our east will maintain quiet conditions Friday night across our region.
An upper level trough over the southeast US is promoting northerly flow throughout the CWA today. A subsidence inversion around 650 mb from an Atlantic surface anticyclone and dry air in the mid levels could work to inhibit convection today. PoPs were left unchanged and will generally be 20-30% today with the higher values closer to the Florida coastline and peninsula.
A large area of high pressure will provide hot and humid conditions through the remainder of the week.
There will be very little change to the general weather pattern over the next 24 hours as a large midlevel high pressure ridge will remain to our west.
Current thinking is that this will be somewhat limited with advection of cooler dewpoints into the region aided by mixing today. As for temps tonight, trended aob the cooler guidance based on scenario mentioned above. Expecting fewer clouds on Mon thru the early afternoon hours and have therefore trended slightly warmer compared to temps today.
328 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 (Tonight and Monday) A cold front will continue to slowly move south across West Central Texas this afternoon, stalling near the Interstate 10 corridor late this evening. Gusty north winds along with cooler temperatures are expected behind the front. On Monday, cooler temperatures are forecast behind the cold front. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s across the Big Country to the low to mid 90s across much of the rest of the region. (Monday night through Sunday) A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday night, then a return to hot and dry conditions is expected for the rest of the work week, as upper level high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest.