Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
If the ridge just to the west were able to build slightly stronger, we would most likely shatter those today. However, RAP analysis shows the ridge to be flattening a bit this morning. Still, ridging will move over the region today bringing exceptionally warm temperatures to the forecast area. As the ridge moves east on Friday, a front starts to flirt with the TX Panhandle compliments of an upper low poised over Saskatchewan. Zonal flow will win out Friday, though, in our area, keeping temperatures on the hot side but slightly cooler than Thursday as 850 temps cool into the upper 20C range.
152 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Low pressure along the Ohio and Indiana border will shift to the New England coast tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the area Friday and Friday night then shift east over the weekend.
310 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Isolated light rain showers associated with the passage of a cold front across the area, will gradually taper off this evening.
237 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 An upper low pressure system continues to pivot away from the region allowing showers to push away during the early overnight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are once again possible Friday afternoon into Friday night as a low pressure system approaches the region.
Models have trended further north w/ the position of the primary surface boundary later today, most likely resulting in high temperatures being a degree or two warmer and contributing to a more unstable environment. Low-lvl moisture return will be good this afternoon as surface flow becomes more ENE, enabling dew points to climb into the lower 50s. Main concern is morning fog/stratus over the high plains which may be tough to burn off per forecast soundings, but models suggest clearing by mid-late morning from CYS-SNY.
Increased cloud cover and winds staying up at around 10 mph should provide enough insulation and mixing, respectively, to regulate Friday minTs to the lower to middle 70s.
325 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017 Currently, there is a large gradient of temperatures between cooler air (40s and 50s) generally north of I-70 and locations south where cooler air has not reached yet and temperatures are in the 70s and 80s. Short term forecast models indicate cooler air dropping a bit further south this evening but this will only bring a minor decrease in low temperatures tonight. A closed low splitting off of the parent closed low over Saskatchewan is expected to develop over Oregon and Idaho and push energy into NE Utah beginning Friday night, beginning another round of showers and potentially thunderstorms across NE Utah and NW Colorado again.
415 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level trough over the wrn CONUS with a downstream ridge from the cntrl plains through the upper MS valley into nw Ontario. At the surface, riding also prevailed from the lower MS valley through WI to wrn Lake Superior. Friday night: A weak trough/cold front is expected to slide across the U.
226 PM PDT Thu May 25 2017 High pressure ridging will bring a warming trend with mostly dry conditions through the holiday weekend. Very active pattern still in place over the northern hemispheric pole with at least 7 longwave troughs around the globe. An omega/rex type block will be developing over the west conus allowing a very broad ridge to heat things up for the west over the next several days.
334 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 A broken line of thunderstorms pushing across South Florida is located just ahead of a cold front this afternoon.
305 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Passing low pressure will provide rain chances into Friday morning.
154 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017 19z surface analysis had low over southern SK with cold front through eastern ND/central NE. Another trough behind low into central MT. Attention then turns toward upper low over SK with trough into the central Rockies.
Sfc obs show elevated winds already ongoing as the region lies between high pressure centered over the n-cntl Gulf and low pressure over the Plains. Southerly winds will become reestablished today with high pressure advancing east of the area. /issued 335 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/ Weather map depicts upper low centered over the mid MS River valley this morning with northwesterly flow situated across the area. Temperatures away from the coast are in the low to mid 50s with temperature along the coast in the 60s.
337 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Unsettled conditions will continue through this evening as an upper level trough crosses the local area from the west. Warmer temperatures and chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial Day. Dry slot continuing to fill up w/ BKN CU and developing (SCT) tstms as an upper level trough enters the region. Other than possible ISOLD SHRAs and VRB clouds far NNE locations early Fri as upper level low is slow to reach New England. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW Fri night into Sat. Lows from the u50s NW to the low 60s SE.
229 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017 An upper level ridge axis has shifted east into the area today in the wake of the departing closed low. With plenty of sunshine across the CWA, temperatures have already risen into the low to mid 70s. For tonight, low pressure will develop in the plains with a stout southwest to northeast low level jet setting up at 40 to 50 kts. While we can't completely rule out some elevated convection with the low level jet, we are expecting most locations to remain dry tonight.
A slowly advancing cold front is expected to drop into the combined Panhandles during the course of the day on Friday, though timing of the advancement of this front may not prevent most of the region reaching into the upper 80s to mid 90s in spots.
305 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017 At H5 there is a closed low moving into south central Canada with a trough into the California coast. Ridging from northern Mexico into Northern Minnesota with another closed low Over Indiana and a deep trough into the Gulf Coast of Florida. Strong surface cold front off the east coast. With 3 hr pressure falls around 2mb looks like the front is still moving south and may shunt convection away from the higher terrain. Lows tonight slightly cooler than last and have gone on colder side of guidance. Highs slightly cooler around 70.
Current greenup and cooler temperatures will again keep fire danger below the high level even with the gusty winds. Gusty west southwesterly winds continue to overspread western and central North Dakota this afternoon behind a departing cold front.
149 PM PDT Thu May 25 2017 The low will push the marine layer.
A few pockets of rain continue to move eastward across mainly east Central Alabama early this morning, in response to a large upper level closed low. Warmer temperatures return on Friday as upper level ridging builds in across the area.
Our zonal flow will start to gain more of a southwesterly inflection as the ridge builds southeast of the area through Mexico while a strong trough develops through the eastern Pacific near the west coast.
Evening soundings and current dewpoint values south of the Mogollon Rim to the Lower Colorado Rover indicate that there is a fair amount of moisture below 600mb tonight.
Otherwise cold advection will increase on nwly winds tonight with a high pressure ridge to shift ewd across srn WI on Fri. Tonight Light precip is moving out as weak low pressure exits the area and ridging moves in from the west. Friday through next Thursday High pressure will keep the weather dry during the day on Friday and Friday evening.
Overnight low temperatures should fall into the low 70s across SE TX.
Overnight low temperatures should fall into the low 70s across SE TX. /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ An upper level high pressure area over northern Mexico will keep a southwesterly flow pattern in the mid and upper levels over Southeast Texas through the weekend and very warm temperatures for this time of the year are expected.
511 PM MDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Current surface map places high pressure ridge across the Dakotas.
This is all due to a upper level low near Seattle that is sending moisture across the area. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage across the entire CWA tomorrow, with a cold front moving through later in the afternoon/evening. Mountains will be obscured and see IFR conditions with low-VFR to MVFR in the lower valleys. Surface winds: SW-SE 15-25kt during Friday afternoon, ahead of the cold front, shifting to the NW 5-15kt behind the front.
542 PM MDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A closed low over the Pacific northwest will slowly sag south through the short term period. The biggest impact will be increasing southwesterly winds, mainly north of Interstate-70 and across the higher terrain. A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern states will eject several disturbances across the region through the period.
Current weather maps reveal a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwest into the OK panhandle. At that time the earlier cold front will be retreating back to the north as a warm front. The upper pattern will become more west northwest with a slight ridging influence.
914 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 The cooler airmass has reached nearly all our forecast area. Ahead of a cold front this afternoon, record to near record temperatures will occur across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. The cold front will stall across northern and central Texas on Friday as lee trough develops over the High Plains.
739 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Low pressure developing west of the region will bring a cold front through the North Country on Friday with periods of rain expected Friday morning.
1037 PM MDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Current surface map places high pressure ridge across the Dakotas.
Brisk ely winds and high waves will develop for late Fri nt-Sat as a wave of low pressure passes to the south of the western Great Lakes. Otherwise cold advection will increase on nwly winds tonight with a high pressure ridge to shift ewd across srn WI on Fri. Tonight Light precip is moving out as weak low pressure exits the area and ridging moves in from the west. Friday through next Thursday High pressure will keep the weather dry during the day on Friday and Friday evening.
Overall, conditions should favor the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms later tonight as steepening mid level lapse rates overspread the low level moist and warm airmass in place. Meanwhile, a cold front stretches along the I-44 corridor from St.
1035 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Currently - Gentle to moderate surface winds out of the northeast to east prevails across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters due to a pressure ridge extending over the eastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds will prevail due to the high pressure system to our north. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across Florida Keys waters through the overnight period due to high pressure to our north and a trough east of the Bahamas.
Current visible satellite trends show the low clouds over parts of the area hanging tough through the daytime hours. The low clouds should fill back in for all areas later tonight as richer moist air to the east of Kansas spreads westward over-running the shallow cool airmass.
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ An upper level high pressure area over northern Mexico will keep a southwesterly flow pattern in the mid and upper levels over Southeast Texas through the weekend and very warm temperatures for this time of the year are expected.
857 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A surface cold front is pushing toward central Indiana and southern Illinois this evening. A few scattered showers may develop and spread northeast ahead of the main cold front. Temps will only rise a few degrees during the day, with NE winds bringing cooler temps, but still above normal, on Friday night.
Synoptic forcing over northern forecast area indicated Sat aftn into the evening as inverted trough structure works its way to the east. Warmer air aloft will make the central valley and adjacent Minnesota a potential transition zone with mixed pcpn including a period of freezing rain as sfc temps only slowly rise toward freezing. Less pcpn likely farther south Sat aftn and eve likely favoring liquid with an above freezing column persisting for a while. Upper trough lagging well behind and would be associated with residual snow shower activity on Sun as much colder air moves down. High pressure should keep pcpn chances at bay most of this time and the GFS has backed off on the something it was trying to generate earlier for Mon night. Signs of warming to above freezing show up by the end of the period.
1055 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A large area of high pressure filtering down from Canada and into the northern plains, will move eastward tonight toward the MS Valley. Surface winds will shift to an easterly direction bringing in dry air in the lowest 2km. This is a key factor with the warm air advection/warm front, lifting northeastward late tonight and Friday. Despite the upper ridge passing eastward allowing strong 850-700mb thetae advection to take over, the dry low layers will really keep accumulating rain or snowfall at bay. However as the aforementioned warm front lifts northward, the mid levels dry out.
A 1005mb cyclone was near Wendover supporting gusty southwest winds due to the 7mb pressure gradient to the Arizona border. The arrival of this weak trough will also cool the airmass just a bit aloft, with 700mb temps expected to drop from the +2C to +5C range today to the -1C to -3C range by tomorrow afternoon.
1139 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Cold front as of 1900 UTC is just northwest of a KMYJ>>KPPQ line and should continue to slowly progress southeastward through tonight. By 0600 UTC, the front should have cleared the CWA with drier and cooler air filtering into the region.
937 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Periodic shower chances are expected over the next several days as a cold front crosses early tomorrow morning.
1156 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A very warm day was occuring across the area ahead of a cold front that as of 200PM stretches from Sedaila, MO to Parsons, KS. Record breaking temps are occuring with highs in the lower 80s occuring at a few locations. Temps will be much cooler tomorrow given the clouds and east/northeast winds.
1124 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A cold front will push southeast through the region on Friday.
Therefore, temps across NETN and SWVA were running several degrees cooler than forecast for the current hour due to the clearer skies still in place. Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 73 60 74 / 40 50 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 70 58 74 / 30 50 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 60 70 59 73 / 50 60 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 71 55 72 / 30 50 40 40.
Clouds still out there across the CWA behind the cold front and was expecting some scattering out of clouds overnight. Areas north of the front were hovering in the lower 50s, while mid-upper 60s were common from about I-72 southward. Quiet weather is expected on Friday, as high pressure drifts east into the upper Great Lakes region. No significant push of cooler air is expected, as the upper flow amplifies a bit more out of the southwest.
A cold front will approach the I-20 corridor late tonight, perhaps reaching the KABI terminal before sunrise and bring a wind shift to the north and post frontal low clouds and MVFR cigs. An upper level ridge will be over northeast Mexico and South Texas, expanding east across the Gulf Coast this weekend.
948 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A cold front will push southeast through the region on Friday.
640 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A very warm day was occuring across the area ahead of a cold front that as of 200PM stretches from Sedaila, MO to Parsons, KS. Record breaking temps are occuring with highs in the lower 80s occuring at a few locations. Temps will be much cooler tomorrow given the clouds and east/northeast winds.
820 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A cold front will track across the remainder of northeast Indiana and south central Lower Michigan through the early overnight hours.
940 PM EDT Thu Nov 02 2017 High pressure will linger over the region through Friday.
1155 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Much warmer air will spread north across the region and persist across at least the southeastern half of Pennsylvania Friday, before a cold front moves through the region bringing some cooler air for the weekend. Another cold front is expected to approach by the end of the weekend as our pattern of fast moving, relatively weak weather systems remains in place. Low temps will be in a fairly tight range from the u40s NW to the low-mid 50s in the SE. A storm moving across the Upper Great Lakes will start to pull moisture in from the Gulf as it pushes a cold front down from the northwest. The high pressure over the East Coast and Deep South will then cut off the good moisture flow as the front moves into PA.
1145 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 At 3 PM, the cold front which moved through the region this morning was located over Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana. 00z models continue to show that high pressure will build across the region. This along with light boundary winds in central Wisconsin would allow temperatures to cool into the lower 20s. On Friday, the clouds will rapidly increase ahead of an approaching warm front. 00z models continue to show that a warm front will move north through the region. The highest liquid amount in this band ranges from two tenths to a third of an inch.
The cold front is bisecting MO/IL as we are in the warm sector, with sfc dew point tongue of upper 60s extending across heart of FA.
/Issued 329 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ Unseasonably warm conditions this afternoon south of approaching cold front, resulting in near record high temps in a few locations. Cold front currently stretches from central Missouri back into western Oklahoma, and persistent low clouds have kept temperatures in the lower 50s across much of Kansas this afternoon.
Low clouds have invaded northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas this evening behind a cold front that stretches from southeast Oklahoma into Far northwest Arkansas. /Issued 329 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017/ Unseasonably warm conditions this afternoon south of approaching cold front, resulting in near record high temps in a few locations. Cold front currently stretches from central Missouri back into western Oklahoma, and persistent low clouds have kept temperatures in the lower 50s across much of Kansas this afternoon.
1024 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Much warmer air will spread north across the region and persist across at least the southeastern half of Pennsylvania Friday, before a cold front moves through the region bringing some cooler air for the weekend. Another cold front is expected to approach by the end of the weekend as our pattern of fast moving, relatively weak weather systems remains in place. Low temps will be in a fairly tight range from the u40s NW to the low-mid 50s in the SE. A storm moving across the Upper Great Lakes will start to pull moisture in from the Gulf as it pushes a cold front down from the northwest. The high pressure over the East Coast and Deep South will then cut off the good moisture flow as the front moves into PA.
646 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Cold front as of 1900 UTC is just northwest of a KMYJ>>KPPQ line and should continue to slowly progress southeastward through tonight. By 0600 UTC, the front should have cleared the CWA with drier and cooler air filtering into the region.
912 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 High pressure ridge exists at the surface from the Carolinas southward into SE GA/NE FL. On Friday as High pressure over the Carolinas nudges offshore expect a slight increase in N-NE winds especially along the coast to 10-15G20 mph, otherwise mostly sunny and mild conditions are expected with Highs generally in the lower 80s inland and upper 70s at the coast.
627 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A large area of high pressure filtering down from Canada and into the northern plains, will move eastward tonight toward the MS Valley. Surface winds will shift to an easterly direction bringing in dry air in the lowest 2km. This is a key factor with the warm air advection/warm front, lifting northeastward late tonight and Friday. Despite the upper ridge passing eastward allowing strong 850-700mb thetae advection to take over, the dry low layers will really keep accumulating rain or snowfall at bay. However as the aforementioned warm front lifts northward, the mid levels dry out.
645 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A cold frontal boundary which crossed the central plains overnight had pushed south into the southern plains this afternoon. Models are hitting harder the low cloud heights vs low visibility potential in fog, but would not be surprised to see a few areas with low visibilities and subsequently fog remains in the forecast. On Friday, cloud cover is expected to become widespread across our region with the lowest cloud heights across our western and southern zones. The cloud cover keep temperatures chilly and have went with the cool side of guidance for highs in the low to mid 40s. Current models keep temperatures above freezing Friday night so precipitation is expected to fall as drizzle vs freezing drizzle which we have to monitor closely this time of year.
857 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Surface trof near the Canadian border is the focus for snow showers this evening.
630 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 VFR conditions this evening will transition to MVFR or IFR conditions overnight as a cold front sags south into the state.
907 PM EDT Thu Nov 02 2017 Weak but warm high pressure will linger over the Carolinas and Southeast states through the end of the week.
/Issued 421 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ A mid-level trough is pushing south over the Pacific Northwest towards the Great Basin region.
/issued 406 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018/ Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong cold front affecting the eastern CONUS, draped southward from the Ohio valley to the Gulf. Subsidence, AKA downward motion, from high pressure aloft has allowed for maximum temperatures to rise well into this mid 80s this afternoon across the interior. This synoptic pattern will lead to warm weather, maximum temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than seasonal norms, east or southeast flow, and dry conditions.
910 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Low level southerly flow will continue overnight around the Atlantic ridge as a cold front moves toward the western FL panhandle by sunrise.
603 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 An Arctic cold front will finish moving southeast through the region this afternoon and evening with a period of gusty west- northwest winds. High pressure will move into the region Monday.
The cold front is bisecting the area from the SW to NE and is about to move into Huntsville. The trough axis will move across the area tonight and with saturated conditions up to about 850mb there should be enough lift to squeeze out a light shower or patchy drizzle and have adjusted the forecast to reflect this. Thankfully, the continued cloudiness and slight breezes tonight should keep the entire area above the freezing mark. As the high nears the area in the afternoon any lingering precip chances move off to the east as drier air filters in.
A cold front currently moving into west central WI will pass across S WI later this evening. Skies have cleared this afternoon in the wake of the morning snow, and west winds will increase a bit this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds into the area. Overnight lows should generally be between 0 and -5, with slightly warmer readings between 0 and +5 near the lakeshore.
The eastern mountains will see snow showers move through at times during the period but most of this activity will be fleeting and confined to the highest elevations.
A mid eve update was issued to adjust POPs for declining light rain in the wake of the cold front.
Cold front now moving through the central valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 53 43 61 / 40 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 49 40 57 / 50 30 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 42 50 40 57 / 50 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 49 38 54 / 60 40 30 30.
602 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Departing low pressure over southern Quebec will drive a trailing cold front through the region overnight.