Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest today then weaken slightly tonight, while producing another very warm day across the region. Onshore flow will increase tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough, bringing areas of low clouds and patchy fog inland Sunday morning, and cooler afternoon temperatures. An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the coming week for mostly sunny and warm weather. An upper level ridge will remain over Western Washington today and tonight. Expect temperatures over the interior to be close to those of yesterday, however temperatures on the coast will be several degrees cooler thanks to an onshore gradient picking up and onshore winds this afternoon and evening. The models have been consistent in developing a weak marine push tonight ahead of an approaching weak dry upper level trough offshore.
PoPs will be confined to the higher terrain and foothills where the highest cape will reside.
However, dry and warmer northerly flow associated with the mid level high moving in from the west coast should stabilize the air mass as the day goes on.
A rather soupy airmass remains in place across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with dewpoints creeping upward into the lower/middle 70s. An area of low pressure aloft that influenced our weather earlier this week is still parked over Srn LA/SW MS this morning, providing copious amounts of rainfall there - leading to significant flash flooding for those locations. A cold front is to the NW over parts of the Mid-MS River Valley, but most of that forcing will remain well N of N AL/Srn Middle TN. A closed upper low was centered over sern LA along with hvy rain across portions of srn LA. The closed upper low will slowly drift westward today and into Sunday.
622 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 An exiting upper level trough will allow for northwest flow to become the dominate pattern over the northern plains through Sunday.
1159 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure will be in control of our weather through mid week. Temperatures climb back above normal as high pressure moves closer. Late in the forecast period, Thu/Fri and beyond, models continue to indicate upper trough, surface front, and increasing moisture progressing eastward into our region. Coverage should be minimal given upper ridge overhead and very warm mid levels combined with lower atmospheric moisture.
A stacked low pressure system continue to crank away along the MB/ON border some 250nm north of the lake of the Woods. with an H5 trof extending southeastward across the MN Arrowhead into northern WI.
A drier and more unstable airmass was over the JAX CWA early this morning compared to 24 hrs ago due to subsidence on the WNW side of an upper level low retrograding across south Florida. In the lower levels. but better potential for some stronger cells given cooler 500 mb temps of -7 to -8 deg C and steeper mid level lapse rates.
TFJ Previous Discussion: High pressure will slide across the northern plains today with upper ridge pushing through the Pacific Northwest. Dry conditions with light winds expected with temperatures a little warmer due to sunny skies. An upper disturbance tracks along the Canadian border on Sunday, flattening the ridge. Given there is expected to be modest low level return flow with the high moving east, and the persistent easy storm development this summer, will trend pops toward storms for Sunday afternoon and evening.
1027 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016 High pressure positioned over the Desert Southwest continued to bring a dry northwest flow to the region.
This area of enhanced cumulus convection seems to be associated with the nose of an accelerated flow in the lower troposphere, as well as a deeper moist layer. Over water, east to southeast winds range from 15 to 20 knots, with the higher winds farther south across the Straits of Florida.
Although the upper-air sounding showed a very light steering flow, the models continued to depict a stronger north to northeasterly flow evolving as the upper high amplifies to our west today. That said, the current scenario of storms developing along the eastern Rim and White Mountains late this morning and tracking southwestward toward the lower deserts still looked plausible.
Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer except for locations near the Cascades.
A cold front stretches southward from the Great Lakes into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates a trough moving across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes with the mid-level ridge holding strong across the Western Atlantic. The overall flow pattern around the periphery of the ridge is anti-cyclonic across the Southern Appalachians. For today, expect hot and mostly dry conditions will continue with the influence of the ridge being the main factor. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 93 74 / 30 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 73 93 73 / 20 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 94 73 92 73 / 20 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 95 69 92 69 / 20 20 30 20.
Not a lot of change to previous TAF package with high pressure in control. Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog slowly developing across Southeast Texas early this morning is expected to lift/scatter out by late morning with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over New Brunswick will slowly move east across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will move in late in the week. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure over the Maritimes will gradually continue to move east and away today. Moisture wrapping around the low will continue to bring mostly cloudy conditions across the area.
Gusty northwest winds 15-30 mph developed earlier this morning across Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho in the wake of a cold front, which is located in Southeast Idaho. Could see a few lightning strikes in the higher terrain with the showers and gusty outflow winds with the stronger showers to 30 kts. As of 3 am, a surface front associated with an upper level low off of the Pacific Northwest coast (that is also keeping the area in southwest flow) has moved through the Magic Valley on its way east.
/issued 424 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the center of a 500 mb ridge over the Texas Big Bend extending across north-central Mexico. Mid-level ridging will remain generally in place through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from the lower 90s near the coast, the mid to upper 90s across the mid valley and over the century mark in the upper valley and across the west. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with lower pressure inland will result in breezy south to southeast winds today and again on Wednesday.
1041 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Warm front to our southwest will move slowly back northeast and into our vicinity Wednesday.
1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 As high pressure continues to push east of the region today, a warm front will lift across the area by Wednesday.
The short term models continue to break down the ridge as h5 low pressure tracks into the Northern Plains.
1230 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over New Brunswick will slowly move east across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will move in late in the week. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure over the Maritimes will gradually continue to move east and away today. Moisture wrapping around the low will continue to bring mostly cloudy conditions across the area.
Shear isn't very great however, with best low level turning associated with a warm front across northeast counties, and 0-6kt shear only tops out around 30kts in southeast counties. 850mb temperatures remain around 20C as the low passes, so temperatures will remain close to average going into Wednesday.
Broad upper level ridge will shift over the area tonight and Tuesday.
After the low cloud group breaks up around mid-morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of this TAF period. South-southeast winds will continue, with the higher speeds and some afternoon gusts near 20 knots at KABI. The 00Z GFS indicates some warming and drying of the low-level airmass, but this may be a bit overdone with ongoing evapotranspiration and little change the low-level flow. We are trending highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. 19 (Wednesday through Tuesday) Ridge of high pressure will continue across the Southern Plains through the rest of the week, keeping the hot and mostly dry conditions in place.
918 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure over the eastern lakes will move off the east coast Wednesday. allowing a warm front to lift across the forecast area.
40 kt of bulk effective shear was forecast to move into the NW zones this afternoon along a cold front. A broad upper trough was digging farther south along the Pacific northwest coast this morning. This was causing flow to back and will provide warmer temperatures today. Dewpoints in the 40s today will cause capes to be rather low with the highest capes over northwest zones and these values will only be around 400j/kg. Will spread low pops into central zones this afternoon as a cold front approaches and adds forcing. The cold front will spread across the area this evening and moved pops into the southeast to account for this. High temperatures today will be a little warmer with less clouds and downslope flow causing low dewpoints.
Temperatures are 2-5 degrees cooler than they were at this time yesterday. A weak trough is resulting in a few more clouds and should help generate widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A humid airmass remains in place across the forecast area with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s.
912 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over the canadian maritimes will lose its influence on our area this afternoon. Weak high pressure will follow for wednesday.
In the low-levels, a surface boundary defined primarily by a dewpoint discontinuity, is bisecting central NC. The front will retreat back to the north as a warm front late tonight/early Wednesday. Model guidance indicates seasonably strong insolation within the axis of moist and moderately to strongly unstable air over the southern counties, south of the sfc front where dewpoints are expected to rise into the lower 70s, will support isolated to scattered convection development this afternoon. Very mild overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Expect highs similar to or slightly warmer than today, tempered by convective outflow/cloud cover to some degree. Lows Wed night similar to tonight, in the low/mid 70s.
On either edge of the forecast area though, highs in the lower 90s look probable. Mesoscale models push this activity more to the southeast with time today, which again is reasonable based on current/expected upstream flow in the lower/mid levels of the atmosphere.
The high resolution short term models brought this batch north with the highest chances of rain from Bismarck through the James River Valley. Looks like the James River Valley has the highest chances.
At 00z yesterday evening there was a longwave trough axis across the rockies with a strengthening ridge across the central plains. With the ridge axis in place, rain free conditions are expected for much of this forecast period. Highs today will once again top out in the lower to middle 90s across the Hill Country and eastern counties, with near 100 degree weather across the Rio Grande Plains. The higher values will be across the southwestern and eastern counties. Much of the same can be expected across the area for tomorrow as the ridge axis remains in place across the central plains. The heat indices will be just below heat advisory criteria for much of the area and will highlight the areas with the highest values with a Special Weather Statement.
With backing low level wind shear near the warm front, cannot rule out an isolated tornado as well, but this threat is low. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. The upper low will pull east soon enough to allow for convection to be gone before daybreak Wednesday.
The resulting southwesterlies at the surface will help dry the lower atmosphere making things less muggy though warmer. By this afternoon, the only area left with the higher moisture levels will be the Southern Rolling Plains. Forecast guidance hints at convective development in the higher theta-e air mainly east of the CWFA though a non-zero risk of storms will exist our near Aspermont/Jayton/Guthrie.
Forecast area remains dry at this hour, with warm overnight lows again in the lower 70s with dewpoints near 70. Westerly low-level winds overnight bring a somewhat warmer airmass into the area for Wednesday, with conditions showing little change in the mid to late week periods as upper ridge builds over the central CONUS in modest advections.
A deep upper low will bring cool showery weather through tonight with thunderstorms possible through this evening.
1000 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure will be in control of our weather for most of this week, resulting in cool nights and mild to warm afternoons.
511 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level short wave trough moving onto the High Plains behind two MCSs. An outflow boundary sent out earlier in the night greatly decreased the storm activity ahead of the upper level short wave trough over the west half of the Tri-State area. For today there may be some isolated storms east of Highway 83 this morning before the upper level short wave trough moves east of the area. Behind the short wave trough the upper level ridge will gradually build back northward over the Tri-State area.
The broad upper level trough will gradually sink into our forecast area today. This will help drive a cold front inland. By Wednesday the broad trough will park itself over the Pacific NW and models bring a decent looking short wave disturbance inland during the early afternoon.
Mid to upper level ridge just east of the state, dry air aloft and some delay in convective initiation today will lead to hot and humid weather with highs in the mid 90s across the interior to around 90 along the immediate coast. The low level ridge axis remains across far S FL this morning with light offshore flow across much of the area.
Latest SPC discussion has really shifted the higher probabilities for severe to our north.
This front will serve as a focus for isolated to widely scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two mainly along the higher terrain. Expect winds to increase tomorrow as the slow moving upper level low starts to progress further down the coast.
950 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level short wave trough moving onto the High Plains behind two MCSs. An outflow boundary sent out earlier in the night greatly decreased the storm activity ahead of the upper level short wave trough over the west half of the Tri-State area. For today there may be some isolated storms east of Highway 83 this morning before the upper level short wave trough moves east of the area. Behind the short wave trough the upper level ridge will gradually build back northward over the Tri-State area.
Moist soils will keep temperatures limited to the lower 90s, for one more day today. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies.
A humid airmass remains in place across the forecast area with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Quiet weather through the short term as an upper level ridge builds into the Coastal Bend.
1033 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to wrap around an area of low pressure centered near Sioux Falls this morning. Shear isn't very great however, with best low level turning associated with a warm front across northeast counties, and 0-6kt shear only tops out around 30kts in southeast counties. 850mb temperatures remain around 20C as the low passes, so temperatures will remain close to average going into Wednesday.
Warm front has moved north of the area early this morning. The best chance of thunderstorms will be this evening as the upper trough currently over Wyoming and Colorado will approach Missouri and Illinois. This trough will increase mid level ascent and deep layer shear. Highs today will once again reach the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Temperatures will mix down from 800mb which justifies going with the warmer side of guidance again today.
Temperatures have already climbed into the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the low 70s. Upper ridge will continue to break down today and convective temperatures are slightly lower than yesterday.
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Wet weather through the mid-week as low clouds/fog/drizzle across much of the Northland this morning gives way to rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight as a low pressure system moves across the upper Mississippi Valley. As the low approaches northeast winds will increase, with gusts to 20- 30 mph expected at the head of the lake late today/tonight. Light rain will linger into Wednesday as the low is slow to exit. Generally slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the short- term period, especially along the lake shore.
Maliawco Southwest flow aloft will prevail the next few days with an upper trough/low over the Pacific Coast and an upper ridge to the east. A wave approaching from the west will move through Northeast Montana this evening with a cold front which will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Missouri River and a lesser chance to the south.
Went near model guidance highs ranging from the lower 90s near I-35 to near 100 in far western north Texas.
752 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure over the eastern lakes will move off the east coast Wednesday. allowing a warm front to lift across the forecast area.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s. High heat and humidity brings highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints peaking from 70-75F. Upper level low/trof will be over the eastern great lakes on Thu while upper level ridging building back northward just west of the MS river over the eastern plains.
Little change in the weather pattern today with an upper ridge over the region and a frontal boundary at the surface stretched across the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 92 73 / 50 50 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 71 90 72 / 50 40 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 90 72 / 50 40 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 65 87 67 / 20 30 40 50.
Expect upper level heights to rise rapidly across the local area over the middle portion of the week as the passing disturbance today lifts north and high pressure begins to build across the plains. As this ridge builds northward.
A strong and unseasonably cool upper low moves over the area today and lingers through the week.
For the rest of the week, an amplifying ridge overhead, limited cloud cover and little to no additional rain chances will require a close look at areas which could become susceptible to heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The upper ridge begins to flatten this weekend as zonal flow develops across the CONUS.
(700-200 MB),Latest available IR imagery as of 900 am overlaid with model streamline analysis depicts a regional middle and upper level anticyclone centered over the Western Atlantic near 30 N 78 W. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels. Temperatures across the islands have risen into the lower to middle 80s with dewpoints in middle 70s. Available forecast soundings indicate advection of drier air in the lower to middle levels from the northeast, bringing PWATs down during the course of the day, to between 1.
(Issued 404 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016) Humid conditions prevailed across the greater central Tennessee Valley this early Tuesday morning, with dewpoints of at least 70 and air temperatures in the low/mid 70s. Upper level ridging over the southern states (between general troughing along the west and east coasts) was breaking down somewhat in comparison to yesterday, as more disturbances aloft and additional moisture from convection becomes more prevalent. It seemed to be picking up remnants of convection over the high plains reaching the area during that time frame. If most of the shower activity holds off until the mid afternoon (today and on Wed), the moisture plus highs in the lower 90s could result in heat indices of 105 in a few spots.
activity as a result of the weak upper low pressure over this portion of the state. potential for SHRA/TSRA will decrease as some upper level ridging will be developing over the state. keep at least some mention of afternoon convection with the high levels of moisture and potential instability expected. chances for precip will be less than seen the past few days as a more pronounced upper level ridge influence will be seen. As a result of the upper ridge expanding over the CWA. temps will be even warmer.
Upper level troughing on the west coast continues to send impulses through eastern Idaho that can trigger showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. This pattern will shift overnight tonight, with the upper level troughing shifting enough to the east to put the dry area over eastern Idaho and an area of moisture and instability over the central Idaho mountains. This will spread eastward as the progression of the upper low halts and the whole pattern amplifies instead. The amplification of the trough-ridge pattern continues with the high building farther into Idaho. This should bring temperatures much warmer under the clear skies, with 80s in the Snake River plain by the weekend. This upper level ridge continues strong into Mon, though it may start to break down Mon night. A low pressure system will stall near the Pacific coast.
1148 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Unauthorized convection which developed earlier this morning over SW AR along a NW to SE 700mb theta-e axis just W of the N-S weak upper trough axis along the MS River has finally begun to weaken late this morning. upper ridging has begun to build NE across TX which will expand E into extreme SW AR/Wrn LA later today. The Srn OK convection appears to be tied to a weak elevated theta-e ridge that should weaken with time as the convection enters McCurtain County and adjacent SW AR. Have also removed pops for much of E TX as subsidence beneath the ridge should continue to increase through the day.
1008 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 The upper level ridge was building into Southeast Texas this morning. An analysis of the 12Z/7am 500 mb level showed the exiting trough just off the upper Texas coast. Not a lot of change to previous TAF package with high pressure in control. Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog slowly developing across Southeast Texas early this morning is expected to lift/scatter out by late morning with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
As this batch of showers lifts into the highway 2 and 200 corridors, models show some clearing or breaks across far southeast ND into west central MN. SPC day 1 outlook has a slight risk for severe weather over the Wahpeton Breckenridge to Fergus Falls area.
Yesterday's front has moved on, and the upper trough axis is swinging through right now. A long wave upper level trough is now moving through the Pacific Northwest. A broad ridge will build over the area.
/issued 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the coming week. Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce some rain. It should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the century mark along the Rio Grande.
1239 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and will slowly move east of the region this weekend.