Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 00Z GFS indicates some warming and drying of the low-level airmass, but this may be a bit overdone with ongoing evapotranspiration and little change the low-level flow. We are trending highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Ridge of high pressure will continue across the Southern Plains through the rest of the week, keeping the hot and mostly dry conditions in place.
Another hot and humid day is in store today, although high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees lower than yesterday's record highs as h5 ridge continues to break down allowing for higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Guidance shows upper ridge continues to flatten on Wednesday with main belt of westerlies aloft shifting southward across the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure over the eastern great lakes will move on to the east and this will allow a warm front across southern Illinois and Kentucky to drift northeast across our region late tonight. Models also bring a low pressure system into the great lakes and a trailing cold front across Indiana by Wednesday.
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages.
A broad upper trough was digging farther south along the Pacific northwest coast this morning. This was causing flow to back and will provide warmer temperatures today. Dewpoints in the 40s today will cause capes to be rather low with the highest capes over northwest zones and these values will only be around 400j/kg. Will spread low pops into central zones this afternoon as a cold front approaches and adds forcing. The cold front will spread across the area this evening and moved pops into the southeast to account for this. High temperatures today will be a little warmer with less clouds and downslope flow causing low dewpoints.
east coast courtesy of the appreciable upper ridge over the U. Lowering surface pressure from the Mid-West toward the Carolinas will impinge on FL to ensure ridge axis stays well south. a center of low pressure should form in vicinity of the Carolinas Fri and move seaward but trail an elongated trough.
These are the result of moisture beginning to move back into our region ahead of a surface cold front and upper-level trof currently over the PacNW region. With warmer SW flow aloft, overnight low temps should be more mild than the unseasonably cool temps from last night, with upper 40s and low 50s expected across the lower elevations. The airmass will destabilize from the west as well after 16Z as a Pacific cold front moves into the area, which will likely cause scattered thunderstorm development along and east of a line from KDLN to KGTF to between KCTB and KHVR after18Z and bring gusty westerly winds. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease from the west after 00Z as a more stable airmass moves into the area in the wake of the cold front.
315 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure will be in control of our weather for most of this week, resulting in cool nights and mild to warm afternoons.
A broad mid-upper level trough will continue to slowly shift east along the Gulf Coast region today, with slight height falls expected over the area. The new 00Z NCAR WRF ensemble places the highest neighborhood probabilities of at least 3" of rainfall over the interior Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Warm front to our southwest will move slowly back northeast and into our vicinity Wednesday.
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the southern plains through Wednesday while a weak U/L trough sinks over the southeast U.
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our CWA overnight. H7 temps expected to rise about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the west coast.
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Wet weather through the mid-week as low clouds/fog/drizzle across much of the Northland this morning gives way to rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight as a low pressure system moves across the upper Mississippi Valley. As the low approaches northeast winds will increase, with gusts to 20- 30 mph expected at the head of the lake late today/tonight. Light rain will linger into Wednesday as the low is slow to exit. Generally slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the short- term period, especially along the lake shore.
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Somewhat flat upper level ridge from central conus across Upper Great Lakes builds and moves east through Tue afternoon. At the sfc, high pressure ridge from Hudson Bay expands across rest of Great Lakes by Tue aftn. Stationary front will stay on the southwest edge of the High pressure ridge and most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain closer to the stationary front as they are doing this afternoon. The overall pattern through the upcoming weekend will be dominated by a fairly large mid-level ridge spanning from the Rockies to New England. During this time a series of troughs will attempt to move through the area, with the main focus on rain chances mid-week.
603 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over New Brunswick will slowly move east across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will move in late in the week. Low pressure over the Maritimes will gradually continue to move east and away today. Moisture wrapping around the low will continue to bring mostly cloudy conditions across the area.
1054 PM PDT MON JUN 13 2016 A cold front will pass through Eastern Washington and North Idaho tonight and allow for breezy conditions tonight and Tuesday. General low pressure will linger over the area for most, if not all, of the week allowing for the mountains to remain favored for showers and some thunderstorms. The HRRR model suggests that rain will pick up after about 1-2 AM this morning ahead of the incoming mid level cold front. Rain tonight will largely remain east of WA, but showers tomorrow will develop across much of the region as temperatures aloft cool with the upper level low pressure system in close proximity over Vancouver Island. /SVH 06Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will push across the region tonight.
As of 3 am, a surface front associated with an upper level low off of the Pacific Northwest coast (that is also keeping the area in southwest flow) has moved through the Magic Valley on its way east.
451 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level short wave trough moving onto the High Plains behind two MCSs. An outflow boundary sent out earlier in the night greatly decreased the storm activity ahead of the upper level short wave trough over the west half of the Tri-State area. For today there may be some isolated storms east of Highway 83 this morning before the upper level short wave trough moves east of the area. Behind the short wave trough the upper level ridge will gradually build back northward over the Tri-State area.
Wind field is not too impressive for the threat for stronger winds and freezing levels are fairly high. High temperatures look to be short-circuited by the storms that develop, but in general most places should at least briefly get into the lower 90s. Wednesday we are just a little bit drier, but with the ridge aloft flattening out and a vortmax crossing the area, we should see good coverage of storms again. Freezing levels remain fairly high, but if storms can get organized we could see some small hail. Highs should be a little cooler than today, given earlier cloud cover, but it still will feel pretty warm with the higher dewpoint air over us.
622 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Warm front to our southwest will move slowly back northeast and into our vicinity Wednesday.
350 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over the canadian maritimes will lose its influence on our area this afternoon. Weak high pressure will follow for wednesday.
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 WV imagery shows a developing upper ridge over Texas, extending up the MS valley and leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. The upper ridge is forecast to remain over the eastern half of Texas through most of the workweek, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.
Tonight Through Wednesday Latest analysis indicates that the small upper low appears to be centered over Mena Arkansas.
Mid level temperatures are forecast to be warmer than the season average today which will hamper the potential for more wide spread convection but there could be the potential for small hail in the strongest thunderstorms with drier air expected at the mid to upper levels today.
5 inches have materialized with heavy thunderstorms producing an inch of rain in 30 minutes at Pine Ridge. Pops are generally limited to 30 percent today with temperatures rising into the lower 80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail the next few days with an upper trough/low over the Pacific Coast and an upper ridge to the east. A wave approaching from the west will move through Northeast Montana this evening with a cold front which will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Missouri River and a lesser chance to the south.
Sharp moisture delineation remains centered just to our southwest along elevated warm front. Leftover MCS showers over central/southern lower MI are now effectively becoming an eastern extension of a warm front in eastern Iowa/ northern IL. That isn/t terribly impressive, but the e-w deep moisture plume associated with the warm front is not far away. Weak low pressure over the western Plains will move slowly into the northern Plains into Tuesday then across northern Michigan Wednesday night. In the meantime, a surface warm front will likely remain off to our south resulting in overrunning clouds to continue.
Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog slowly developing across Southeast Texas early this morning is expected to lift/scatter out by late morning with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure will be in control of our weather for most of this week, resulting in cool nights and mild to warm afternoons.
Mid/upper level ridging will begin tonight from the west. This looks to begin decreasing the high PW air and warming the column, especially in the lower levels. As ridging continues aloft, high heat indices will surely become a problem areawide in later periods.
259 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Current IR and Watervapor satellite loops show the upper level trough axis pushing into Wyoming at this hour. This trough axis will move into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska shortly.
642 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over the maritimes will slowly drift off to the northeast through Wednesday, as high pressure builds in from the west.
GFS continues to show 2000 J/KG of CAPE on Tuesday across the western half of the state as the upper level trough moves into eastern ND. However, 0-6km bulk shear around 20 kts along with subsidence on the backside of the trough should limit the severe threat. Upper level ridge briefly builds across the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The ridge axis continues to shift eastward as the trough over the Pac NW remains nearly stationary and high pressure builds over the southwest CONUS.
335 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Mostly clear skies are expected for the next couple of days as high pressure sits over the northeast.
404 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Humid conditions prevailed across the greater central Tennessee Valley this early Tuesday morning, with dewpoints of at least 70 and air temperatures in the low/mid 70s. Upper level ridging over the southern states (between general troughing along the west and east coasts) was breaking down somewhat in comparison to yesterday, as more disturbances aloft and additional moisture from convection becomes more prevalent. It seemed to be picking up remnants of convection over the high plains reaching the area during that time frame. If most of the shower activity holds off until the mid afternoon (today and on Wed), the moisture plus highs in the lower 90s could result in heat indices of 105 in a few spots.
306 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over the maritimes will slowly drift off to the northeast through Wednesday, as high pressure builds in from the west.
209 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 The influence of a slow moving low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes will gradually lessen across the North Country today. While an isolated shower is possible across eastern Vermont early this morning, will otherwise see diminishing cloudiness and warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs into the low to mid 70s.
A slow moving cold front that will bring a change to cooler and wetter conditions this week has started to make its way into the Northern Rockies early this morning. As for temperatures, many valley locations (except SW Montana and Lemhi county), may have already seen their high temperatures for the day, as cooler air is moving in behind this wave of energy.
Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific. Winds shift back to a southerly direction Wednesday as a trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs look to hover around 100 degrees each day with lows ranging from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas each night.
255 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Nam shows a trough in the pacific nw, a ridge across the central U. and a trough in New England. Think clouds will hang on a bit more today, but adjusted temperatures up a degree or two due to warmer start to morning with cloud cover overnight. The overall pattern through the upcoming weekend will be dominated by a fairly large mid-level ridge spanning from the Rockies to New England. During this time a series of troughs will attempt to move through the area, with the main focus on rain chances mid-week.
A few light showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with dry moving into the area.
502 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 As high pressure continues to push east of the region today, a warm front will lift across the area.
136 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Warm front to our south will move slowly back northward. A low pressure system/weak cold front will then move through for the end of the work week. High pressure firmly in place tonight. High pressure. allowing a warm front to approach the area from the southwest on Tuesday. Clouds should slowly increase on Tuesday as the warm front approaches the area. Latest temperature guidance was a few degrees cooler for lows tonight.
152 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday. A warm front will move into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
330 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2016 A low pressure system will bring cool and unsettled weather to NorCal through the remainder of the week. Deep trough developing over the PacNW will extend down into NorCal this week. Shower chances will increase by Wednesday and continue into the end of the week, but the main impacts will be cooler temperatures along with gusty southwest winds.
The upper ridge over the area nudges southeast while a short wave trough moves east across the gulf coast. Temps will be a degree or two cooler than yesterday but will still manage to reach the mid/upper 90s inland and lower 90s coast with heat indices near 105 degrees. The SW steering flow strengthens as the upper ridge continues to nudge SE and the short wave trough moves into Georgia. and deep SW flow ahead of the trough favors scattered storms developing along the west coast seabreeze during the early afternoon and spreading north and east across the remainder of the area during the course of the afternoon. Max temps will be slightly lower than today but will still reach the lower/mid 90s with heat indices 100 to 105 degrees.
629 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Mostly clear skies are expected for the next couple of days as high pressure sits over the northeast.
242 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level short wave trough moving onto the High Plains behind two MCSs. An outflow boundary sent out earlier in the night greatly decreased the storm activity ahead of the upper level short wave trough over the west half of the Tri-State area. For today there may be some isolated storms east of Highway 83 this morning before the upper level short wave trough moves east of the area. Behind the short wave trough the upper level ridge will gradually build back northward over the Tri-State area.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the center of a 500 mb ridge over the Texas Big Bend extending across north-central Mexico. Mid-level ridging will remain generally in place through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from the lower 90s near the coast, the mid to upper 90s across the mid valley and over the century mark in the upper valley and across the west. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with lower pressure inland will result in breezy south to southeast winds today and again on Wednesday.
As the upper wave moves into the area this evening, thunderstorms that have been developing on the high plains this afternoon will move to the east and start to affect the area this evening and overnight. On Wednesday, there is a weak ridge that slides into the forecast area.
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our CWA overnight. H7 temps expected to rise about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the west coast.
640 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 As high pressure continues to push east of the region today, a warm front will lift across the area by Wednesday.
1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Upper ridging taking over.
Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies.
304 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 We see the high amplitude long wave ridge aloft filled and dirtied today, as a heat Low over the mid South and uniform southerlies in the lower trop have really done their job in charging the column overtop the Quad State. PW's climb to near 2" by this pm, and while there are no strong triggering mechanisms today, the super charged 5K J/KG CAPE that develops in the lower 1 KM, and 6-8 C/KM lapse rates in the lower 6 KM, will spell at least as much convection as yesterday, if not a little more. H5 height falls spill across the Great Lakes on path with a southeastward diving parent Low pressure system. This will drive a cold front southward and eastward and ultimately into/across the middle Ohio river valley.
352 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure over the eastern lakes will move off the east coast Wednesday. allowing a warm front to lift across the forecast area.
259 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Warm front to our south will move slowly back northward. A low pressure system/weak cold front will then move through for the end of the work week.
147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. Opted to keep PoPs on the low side given low predictability of mesoscale features with synoptic scale support displaced well off to west-northwest.
Otherwise, dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland and around 70 along the coast. Expecting a dry and seasonably warm end to the work week, as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper level ridge. Global models remain in general agreement with keeping low pressure currently north of the Bahamas well to the east of our forecast area.
107 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night.
Severe thunderstorms can also be expected north of a warm front/stationary front that will extend from roughly Garden City to Dodge City to around the Larned areas. On Friday an upper level trough will cross the West Central High Plains and a cold front will drop south into western Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible late day and into the overnight period north of the cold front as it drops south out into southwest Kansas. Highs south of the cold front still look to be warm and should range from 80 to 85 degrees. northwest of this front highs will average close to 10 degrees cooler. On Saturday ans the first upper trough will lift northeast into the Mississippi Valley as a westerly down slope flow develops across the central Rockies.
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week.
In general, the Tri-State region will remain under a channel of high pressure aloft, between areas of low pressure over the Central Plains and the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail as well, yielding east/southeasterly low-level flow.
Due to extensive cloud cover and scattered convection, temps will be a bit cooler than they were yesterday, with most locations remaining in the 70s. Upper low over Colorado this morning is expected to reach southeast Nebraska by early Saturday morning, before lifting into the upper Mississippi Valley. The latest GFS favors much of Saturday being dry before a cold front triggers some storms west of I-55 in the afternoon.
608 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Southwest Oregon and northern California will be at the far southern end of an upper level trough over British Columbia today. A short wave disturbance is moving along the Washington/British Columbia border this morning with a weak trough/front extending southwestward to just offshore of Oregon. A clear sky east of the Cascades is resulting in temperatures down near freezing in many areas, including the Klamath Basin, where a freeze warning is up through 8 am.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 MB), the latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 3 am depict a split pattern over the Eastern United States with developing ridging over the Middle Atlantic and Northeastern States, and a trough over east of Florida centered over Andros Island but encompassing the Southeastern United States including the entire State of Florida, the Keys, all of the Bahamas and adjoining waters. South of that, an area of low pressure is developing near 26 North 74 West. 91 inches, but has which has moistened since, with increasing dry air with strong northerlies above that, which is in association with the cyclonic flow associated with the aforementioned middle and upper level trough.