Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southerly flow has returned to the area and so have the warmer temperatures. Highs today manage to get into the lower 60s most southern areas. troughs could be found on the Western and Eastern US coasts. with ridging across the central United States. watching for development of sea fog as warmer air moves over the cooler shelf waters.
329 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows the high pressure has progressed east along the North Carolina and Virginia borders. This should mitigate the temp splits tonight, but kept a slight split in the east given the lower afternoon dewpoints. Also a lee side low pressure system will deepen tonight and eject into the Central Plains. The attendant cold front will be our next weather maker. Also the higher elevation nearer the VA border could be susceptible to higher gusts. Overall this strong jet dynamics and approaching cold front will moisten the layer/increase lower and mid level omega and lead to increasing POPs late in the afternoon into Tuesday night. The cold front actually hangs up along the Ohio River and this boundary across the area is perhaps more of a outflow boundary.
Southerly surface winds will increase today as low pressure develops across the central High Plains. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures with highs ranging from the middle 40s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s along and west of the I-49 corridor. This will occur in advance of a cold front that will push trough the region by the evening.
338 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Quasi-zonal flow continues tonight and Tuesday with one short wave moving to the I 29 corridor by 12Z Tuesday, followed on its heels by a second short wave rapidly moving through Tuesday morning and ushering in a strong surface cold front. Snowfall amounts of around an inch to inch and a half could fall along the Highway 14 corridor, with a dusting toward I 90. Therefore am mainly concerned about a patchy freezing drizzle threat along with some light sleet.
The weak coastal trough that was producing a few streamer showers over the coastal waters this morning has diminished. Low lvl flow out of the south to southwest prevails, and well above normal temperatures will continue into the mid with highs in the low 80s across most of the region.
215 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Arctic high pressure will persist over the region through tonight, then gradually shift offshore on Tuesday.
High pressure ridge north of the area will keep onshore low level winds across central Florida into tomorrow. As trough then weakens in tomorrow, and mixing increases with daytime heating, surface winds will become easterly with temperatures warming into the low 70s. A subtle coastal trough may enhance convergence of wind. Max temps warming from the Lower 70s to around 80 by late week.
/issued 1054 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ Hourly grids for the overnight hours with the warm front passage. Elsewhere mid 40s will continue to increase as the warmer dew points continue to work back inland. The returning Southerly winds will continue to slowly increase in speed as the warm front lifts our way.
It will be warmer though. A weak broad ridge will shift out of the Midsouth tonight. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of a continental cold front approaching from the West. The cold front is expected to stall to our North across South Missouri.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along and north of a weak cold front that extends from northern Val Verde County to north of Kerrville to just south of Austin.
U/L pattern change will occur tonight and Friday as the persistent U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida retrogrades to the southern plains and Mexico tomorrow. This will allow a strong L/W trough to dig along the eastern seaboard with an associated cold front sinking slowly south across north central Florida late Friday. Main U/L support will remain well north of the forecast area and combined with the dry air aloft, only a slight chance of a light shower developing ahead of the cold front over northern portions of the nature coast late in the day.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 144 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A crossing cold front will generate showers today and will usher in more seasonable temperature as high pressure builds in behind it. High pressure builds over the region starting Friday night.
Based on what has happened today, and a forecast for even warmer temperatures in the boundary layer over the next couple days, I have decided to bump up temps a little from what the blend/MOS guidance is showing.
300 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Mostly to partly sunny skies were noted across the Keys with temperatures rising to the 82-84F range and dewpoints in the lower 70s. with deep layered ridging aloft across the central Gulf of Mexico. This upper ridge extended eastward through the Florida Straits. Over the next 24 to 36 hours the ridge will flatten and translate southward as a deep mid/upper trough swings southeastward into the Western Atlantic. A weakening frontal boundary will slowly move down the Florida Peninsula, although any impacts appear to be mostly due to the reinforcement of high pressure across the southeast U.
256 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Northwest flow aloft downstream of building ridge keeps moist and cool airmass flowing across Lk Superior into this evening. A few showers or light drizzle will continue this aftn, but as high pressure ridge moves in this evening and overnight, clouds should begin to clear out. Lower pwats and clearing may even result in temps cooler than that. Into Fri, if low clouds and fog develop overnight, the low sun angle and limiting mixing along with drying aloft and sct-bkn cirrus may lead to slow clearing of the low clouds. The sw winds at the sfc should allow temps to end up in the 50s, though whether it stays in the low 50s or reaches the upper 50s to near 60 degrees will completely depend on extent of low clouds into the aftn.
216 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front crosses and exits by this evening. High pressure brings a stretch of dry, cooler weather from Friday clear into the next work week. Cold front as of 18Z was entering southeast OH, having cleared KCMH and KDAY over the past hour. Expect some low stratus along and behind the front, and as the low level winds turn around to the northeast, thinking stratus will hang tough along and east of the I79/US 119 corridor overnight with just scattered clouds elsewhere. Temps will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with highs actually running a few degrees below normal for a change. High pressure will take control of the weather conditions through the period. A weak cold front will pass north of the area.
An upper ridge over North America will bring sunshine to Western Washington Friday.
The combination of clearing skies, surface ridging and calm winds will promote radiational cooling and fog development. A broad upper level ridge will build over the central US Friday, slowly pushing east into the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Have increased highs for Friday based on readings in the Dakotas today reaching well into the 60s, and running warmer than model guidance.
321 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front and its associated showers will cross the region tonight.
557 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front has slipped southeast of IL will push southeast across the Ohio river valley this evening while a piece of high pressure over the central Rockies drifts east over IL by Friday afternoon. Winds will stay fairly light tonight and Friday as high pressure settles into the area. Lows overnight in the low to mid 40s, coolest over the IL river valley. Highs Friday in the low to mid 60s, mildest over sw CWA. Moisture channel imagery and upper air showed northwest flow aloft to strengthen overnight, with upper ridge building over the western plains and trof deepening over the eastern US. High pressure and drier air will build into the IL region overnight from the midwest. High pressure and dry conditions will be in control over the weather then through the weekend.
253 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Low pressure will move east through the Gulf of Maine tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Friday. High pressure will shift offshore Friday night.
An upper level low will move slowly across southern Arizona through Friday.
Tonight expect a high pressure ridge over the area.
303 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cool high pressure will build into NY and PA overnight, clearing skies across our region.
This in part due to increasing cloud cover associated with a cold front approaching from the north. At the surface, ridging will be pushed south and west as westerly flow over the Appalachians develops lee troughing, forecast to spread into the Tri- State region late this afternoon. While a stray light shower or two will be possible along the trough, the main impacts will be increasing cloud cover from northwest to southeast through the afternoon. By this evening, our next cold front will just be entering the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.
A cold front located south of the Plateau will continue to advance southward into Arkansas this evening.
301 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 18Z surface data has a frontal boundary from North Dakota into lower Michigan with high pressure over the central Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen late this afternoon through midnight as high pressure builds into the area.
The cooler air is well behind the front and not expected to start across the forecast area until Friday afternoon, although the drier air will begin to work in a little earlier in the day. Friday, with the cooler air arriving later in the day, another day of highs in the low to mid 80s expected.
Deese With the front well to the south and high pressure continuing to build in from the north, dry and cooler air will settle into our area. High temperatures will be around normal(low 70s) while the lows will radiate out enough to see below normal temperatures (low to mid 40s) overnight. Temperatures will begin to moderate (mid 70s) by the end of the period as the high shifts off the east coast ahead of the next front. A cold front will push through late this evening through the overnight hours and could allow for a brief BKN VFR deck but no VCSH is needed at this time.
1230 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Aloft: Split flow was over the Wrn USA with a newly-formed low over AZ and a ridge to its N. The ridge will gradually drift E and be over the fcst area tonight. Part of this high will break off and head E into the region today. but temps will warm into the low 70s.
526 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure builds in tonight through Friday night.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: One area of low pressure is pressing east early this morning with all rain now exited out of the Saginaw Bay region. This rainfall was associated with a sharpening wave aloft and next cold front. Right behind the front, high pressure was pressing into Ontario. The cold front arrives this morning with the aforementioned forcing maximizing across eastern upper for the best coverage of showers, but at least some scattered activity looks to scrape most of nrn lower, as there is some diurnal enhancement potential, with skinny SBCAPE potential (only 200 j/kg or so) seen in forecast soundings. CAA behind the passing cold front late today into tonight reveals marginal overlake instability, but with weakening winds through the night as high pressure settles in by daybreak Friday.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions across Utah Thursday.
Westerly surface winds in the wake of this trough favor another mild day and trended forecast highs on the warmer edge of the forecast envelope given observed trends the past couple days. This favors continued above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation under anomalous upper level ridging at least into mid November.
Still, notably cooler than its been for some time. RMcQueen The closed upper level low will begin to kick the overhead ridge eastward tomorrow as the low begins to phase back into the main flow.
Fantastic fall weather will continue on Friday, under broad ridging aloft and as cutoff low meanders through SE Arizona. Few clouds, light winds and mild temperatures in the lower 70s.
A secondary cold front my touch off a few light rain shower north and east of Grand Rapids this afternoon. Tonight skies should clear and that will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s. With all the rain that fell in the last 24 hours and due to the lack of any strong dry wind to mix out the low level moisture it would seem reasonable to expect fog. There is a shallow cold front that surges through the state this afternoon into early tonight.
235 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cold front will be completely south of the area by late afternoon.
Upper ridge that is in place over the region will remain over the southeastern portion of the state today before it gradually breaks as upper trough over the Great Lakes digs southeast into Friday.
After the rain moves out, dry weather is expected through Friday night as high pressure builds in. Cooler air will begin to push in behind the front tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The much cooler time frame will be tomorrow and tomorrow night. Lows for Friday night will look to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s under the high pressure.
425 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cooler and drier air will move in tonight, as high pressure gradually builds into the area from the upper midwest. Cold front continues to slowly drop south, and is bisecting the fa. High pressure will build in on Friday and will bring sunny and dry conditions through the period. High will be seasonal ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s in nrn KY.
Water vapor imagery shows upper level ridging over much of Texas with an upper level low over the Desert SW/Baja Mexico.
A cold front will slip through after 12z, and expect to see some drier air mix in allowing the fog to quickly clear after 14z.
It appears that the clouds associated with the cold front will be a tad slower getting here. Highs will be in the lower 80s north and mid to upper 80s south. Late tonight, a cold front moves through central Alabama ending our streak of record breaking heat.
An upper level ridge will remain in place over the Western and Central U. A front and upper level trough will approach the region Friday night.
1148 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 With no real kicker in place, the closed low over southern Arizona will remain stationary for most of the day keeping our forecast area dry for the most part. By daybreak Friday, the low will have moved slightly eastward allowing flow to become more south to southeasterly which will allow moisture to move in. However, upper level support looks to be lacking with this system and with the strongest forcing being the area of low pressure itself, the best forcing remains to our south.
1256 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest upper air analysis has a ridge over the western CONUS. Underneath the ridge is a closed low in the process of becoming cut-off over the Gulf of California. Today and tomorrow dry conditions with warmer than normal temperature are expected. The cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will slowly move northeast and merge back into the upper level flow.
Closed upper low now across southern AZ is setting off afternoon storms across the southwest. with slightly warmer lows south.
A strong ridge of high pressure will slide across the region through Sat.
Mid/upper troughing along the eastern seaboard dives southeastward, thus pushing the surface frontal boundary southward through ECFL Fri night. Highs will reach the low 80s before the front begins to move closer towards the area later in the day.
A cold front will push south through the region tonight through early tomorrow and will shift winds around to the north and northeast with midday to afternoon winds getting a bit gusty at times (up to 20 KTS not out of the question) along and north of the I-20 corridor. Otherwise, we are still anticipating the approach of a cold front from the northwest late in the day and toward evening.
1231 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows split flow aloft over the nation's mid section with a building ridge over the western states and a closed low over the Mexico/AZ border. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was centered over the High Plains.
1028 AM PDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A weak weather disturbance will exit the region by midday and a ridge of high pressure will rebound this afternoon for dry weather through the end of the week.
As the upper trough continues to move toward the eastern Great Lakes, heights will be on the increase over the forecast area. Some of the high resolution short-term model guidance hint at perhaps some shallow lake showers developing overnight that could brush the lakeshore. Went a few degrees above the latest model blend with temperatures expected to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal.
126 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front continues to dip south across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure will build in on Friday and continue to influence the area through the weekend. The cold front has progressed most of the way through the forecast area as of noon. Most of the precip has moved out of the area as a low pressure system continues to push eastward. However any breaks will be short lived as a upstream trough/secondary front dips down late this afternoon/evening. Will continue the chance pop NERN OH and NWRN PA as outlined in the near term portion through the first half of the night tapering to slight chance late as high pressure and drier air begin to move in. The remainder of the near term will be dominated by high pressure and fairly dry air.
As an upper level trough continues to dig down the eastern seaboard,a cold front will approach from the north. By 12z, the cold front should be stretched out east to west over or just north of our northernmost zones.
weak high pressure was sliding slowly east bringing in slightly drier and cooler air. upstream analysis shows fair skies and dry conditions to prevail the next 2 days with light winds and slightly cooler conditions. Area temperatures highs and lows should generally be within 3 degrees of the forecast with low lying areas possibly seeing mins 2 to 3 degrees cooler than forecast due to clear skies and light winds. Skies to become fair from northwest to southeast by mid morning as weak high pressure moves in with fog and/or lingering clouds move east. Favored low lying locations, mostly along and north of I-80 should tend to see mins at least a few degrees cooler with some upper 30s possible. Otherwise, lows should stay in the lower 40s which will be 5 to 7 degrees above normal.
Upper level ridge remains in place across the western US with high pressure remaining over the central US. Temperatures are still expected to drop into the low to mid 30s tonight. Cooler temperatures will once again be across the eastern panhandle region where terrain influences will allow temperatures to drop a little more. Large ridge over the Northern Rockies into central Canada with subsidence over the northern and central plains. Upper low meanders under the ridge.
1237 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cold front extending from near PPQ southwest through JEF will continue moving southeastward today. Cooler temperatures can be expected today due to the low level cold air advection behind the cold front along with low level cloudiness inhibiting solar insolation this morning. Although temperatures will be much cooler compared to the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather, the highs today will still be about 10 degrees above normal with the lows tonight about 5 degrees above normal for early November.
Water vapor loop indicated a northwest-southeast upper level jet moving into a trough over Ontario. Upper level ridge from MT to SASK will move into the Northern Plains tonight. Model soundings indicate the boundary layer is saturated in the north today Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will ride the ridge and move into Ontario on Fri. Upper ridge will continue to build over the western North America then shift into central North America by 12Z Sun.
347 PM PDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure will persist through at least the weekend, so dry conditions are expected.
412 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Current satellite imagery shows the area of low pressure spinning over southern Arizona, not having made much progress throughout the day. Cloud cover will increase in coverage overnight and result in a mild night, quite a few degrees warmer for areas like Durango and Cortez, than last night.
with dry wx expected for the rest of the night and thru Friday as strong high pressure and dry air thru the column build into the Great Lakes region. Decoupling combined with weak CAA will drop our temps to overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Temps will warm back into the lower 50s for Friday afternoon under nearly full sun. High pressure brings pleasant weekend weather. An associated expansive area of high pressure will prevail at the surface, aiding to bring above normal temperatures and precip-free conditions to northern Michigan throughout the period.
Thermal trough will be overhead friday keeping temperatures seasonable in the lower to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies.
423 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure builds in tonight through Friday night.
A slow moving cold front strewn from New Jersey, down through the Ohio Valley, to just north of the Arkansas and Oklahoma border will continue to push southward through the lower Mississippi Valley this evening.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 155 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A crossing cold front will generate showers this evening and will usher in more seasonable temperatures as high pressure builds in behind it. A cold front and associated showers will move out of the area this afternoon and evening. A stratus deck can be expected behind the cold front. A high pressure system will build in on Friday, allowing for skies to slowly clear. High pressure builds over the region starting Friday night.
144 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front will move southeast through the region today, providing occasional chances of showers, and bringing an end to the record warmth that had been in place over the Ohio Valley. Much cooler and drier air will move in behind the front, as high pressure gradually moves into the area from the upper midwest. Cold front bisects the forecast area early this afternoon as it continues southeast.
Otherwise, with the upper ridging building over the region on Friday and 925 mb temps in the 13-15C range, an even milder day is ahead for with highs expected to be up into the 50s and 60s, well above our average highs in the low to mid 40s. Forecast highs currently may be on the low side, especially across the south, given the very mild air mass residing across the area, although weak mixing may be a limiting factor for temp rises. Well above average temperatures to continue through the period with the warmest temperatures this weekend where high temperatures likely to range in the lower to mid 60s.
1105 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion A Chinook Arch persists over N-central MT this morning even as the ridge axis aloft has moved east of our forecast area. Dense freezing fog has developed around West Yellowstone, but observations suggest the fog is localized to that area. Large scale high pressure ridge with axis centered over MT will maintain dry and stable westerly flow aloft over the region through Friday.
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through tomorrow as a broad mid-level ridge builds into the central U. With limited cool air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage, afternoon high temperatures were reaching into the low/mid 70s with abundant sunshine and light winds in place. Clear skies will support decent radiational cooling, which will cause low temperatures to drop into the low/mid 40s. Have not mentioned this potential in the forecast at this time due to the low confidence in how widespread that low-level moisture will be. Another dry and mild day is expected tomorrow with light southerly winds keeping afternoon high temperatures in the low/mid 70s.