Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ARE ACCOMPANYING A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT/S TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. SKIES CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. AND AS A NEW RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE PAC COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IN THE LONG VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
155 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS 499 DM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW-MID CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE EAST WHERE TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN THE WEST.
1046 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 WEAK SFC RIDGING IS DIRECTLY OVHD THIS MORNING. AS NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC MAKING FOR A VERY NICE VALENTINE'S DAY.
144 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2015 An upper ridge extending in from the west will keep the warm wx across the area for another day but colder wx is on the way. This low will bring a chance of precipitation as it approaches the area. Expect warm lows tonight as the wind stays out of the south with a leeside trough over Eastern NM. However a cold front will blow into the NE Permian Basin during the afternoon and push through the rest of area overnight.
1249 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO ONGOING TODAY AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG 850MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ASSIST IN STRONG WIND GUSTS FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR THIS WINTER AND WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH TO THE WEST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO ON SUNDAY. ALREADY FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER PLUMMET AFTER NIGHTFALL AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WIND DIMINISHES.
A dry arctic cold front will move through the region late tonight, moving into the Gulf of Mexico by daybreak on Sunday. It should stay in the lower 40s overnight in the Florida counties.
1034 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN TODAY AS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHES INLAND.
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN KANSAS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS STARTING AT KPNC WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THROUGH KSPS BY AROUND 08Z TOMORROW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIP TO FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN SOME SLEET.
WEST COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS ALONG WITH FULL SUN ALREADY PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE LOW 60S IN MUCH OF NE OKLAHOMA WITH 2-4 HOURS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING AND WHILE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A TAD THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC GRADIENT MOMENTARILY WEAKENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
334 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2015 A strong cold front passed through early Saturday and continued to surge south with strong cold advection and dry advection into the local forecast area. This will keep low temperatures a bit warmer than they would be with calm winds, but still quite cold in the 5-10 range.
Exception will be KHVR where IFR/LIFR ceilings behind a surface cold front slowly pushing from northeast to southwest should persist into early evening.
224 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2015 Arctic cold front continues to push south-southwest across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas today. Outside of these bands, it will likely take longer to saturate the lower levels and snowfall amounts will not be as much.
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
1158 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED THE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THE HIGHS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS ALLOWS THE LIFT TO REACH THE LOWER PARTS OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
1144 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2015 High pressure will remain dominate through midweek delivering dry conditions and mild temperatures.
1251 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SW-W WINDS 10-15KTS IN THE LOWEST 3KFT. IN THE LONGER TERM - AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT IN SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A E/NE DIRECTION AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40'S. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN GENERAL A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AND WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. KUDX RADAR SHOWS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND IS PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD TO NEAR 50 IN THE GILLETTE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
901 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING BAJA CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AT 20Z WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. MAIN SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES UPSTREAM OF THE AREA.
COLD FRONT IT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NOW AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INITIALLY PRIMARILY BE LIQUID WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. MORNING MODEL RUNS HAVE COMPLICATED THE FORECAST A BIT BY EITHER DECREASING QPF ACROSS THE AREA OR DELAYING THE SPREAD OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
1035 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THE NEXT 24 HRS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXCEPTIONS MAY BE WHAT APPEARS TO BE NUISANCE VIRGA/SHOWERS WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN NM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ONE UNLIKELY CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKES SHAPE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
258 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WAS BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT AND WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL SPREAD THE WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO THE WARMER AIR. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BROADEN CAUSING MORE WESTERLY FLOW THAN NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE WESTERLY.
CLOUDY AND COOLER TOMORROW. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE INTO TAMPA BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN THROUGH FORT MYERS BY DAYBREAK. SOMEWHAT COOL OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT WHILE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS OVER S FL AND SHALLOW COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
105 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. 5-8F WARMER TODAY AND ANOTHER 5-8F WARMER FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SPREADS INLAND MAINLY ACROSS CALIF AND NEVADA AND WINDS ALOFT CHANGE FROM NNWLY TO WNWLY.
Most areas will see overnight lows in the lower 20s, with a few low-lying areas dropping into the mid and upper teens.
259 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW WORKING INTO AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOW ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE LIKELY RE-FREEZING LATER THIS EVENING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH EXTENDING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THE ONLY THING STAVING OFF AN EVEN COLDER NIGHT WILL BE A SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH.
1223 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
1137 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING AN ELONGATED POS TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA TO THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS.
342 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER.
High pressure aloft will keep the airmass warm and dry. High pressure over the interior Western US will remain stationary, keeping a dry and stable NW flow aloft over the region through Friday. Gusts of 35 kts to 45 kts with local gusts to 55 kts can be expected over ridgetops and along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front.
RADAR AND AREA OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 20 42 26 58 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 15 39 25 53 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 14 38 24 53 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 11 36 21 53 / 10 0 0 0 TN.
1118 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH SUNNY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. GOOD WARM ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
313 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TODAY RESULTING IN A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING OVER YESTERDAY.
AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SIT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE TROUGH WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT ANY WATER ON SURFACES WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING. WARMER ON FRIDAY. WITH AFTERNOON READING STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING.
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
347 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
1258 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY THIS AFTN.
110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND.
1122 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES EAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. WHILE FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS DRY AIR IN THE LOW- LEVELS CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
1141 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY THIS AFTN.
Late evening convection which developed across western Neb skirted along the northwest periphery of our cwa and while we missed the western convection, a few storms have developed along and north of an outflow boundary and on the nose of the low level jet.
Expect plenty of sunshine to start today with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s around midday. MaxT will be a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 80s to around 90F. Mainly clear again tonight with patchy fog in the valleys and lows trending much warmer across the northwest Alleghenies.
504 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Current surface analysis shows one frontal boundary just south and east of the region, with a cold front over MT also approaching the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over central Canada shifting slowly northeastward, with near zonal flow across the northern Plains. Cold front to the northwest will push through the area today, bringing breezy northwesterly winds to most areas behind it. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s over portions of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the low to mid 90s over far southern SD.
/28/ The region remains under the influence of upper ridging to the west and some troughing to the east. Thanks to the ridging influence, temperatures today will once again warm into the mid to upper 90s, similar to yesterday.
951 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and mostly dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
305 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Breezy and dry conditions across the region are in order for today behind a cold frontal passage.
1029 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure will be settled overhead this afternoon into Monday.
A similar scenario is expected later today as another cold front pushes southeast into our region by this afternoon.
Meanwhile, heat index values this afternoon will peak near heat advisory criteria mainly along and east of I-35 under the upper ridge.
Upper-level flow will be west-northwesterly without significant troughs or ridges.
There may also be a risk of a storm over the far ern plains near the KS border from late afternoon into the evening, as some modest low level moisture convergence will develop ahead of the lee trough.
and low temperatures Tonight in the lower-mid 70s.
616 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure will dominate across the region today with virtually no chance of precipitation. Latest surface analysis places the center of upper level high pressure over the Arklatex and it will be remaining pretty much in place through the period.
This makes sense due to the higher moisture content and the slightly northward progression of the old frontal boundary. /Issued 735 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ An upper ridge will build across the southeast through the short term.
Expect to see another day with flat cumulus development despite the weak trough axes aloft and the aforementioned very dry air remaining in place that will result in another day where daytime dewpoints will come down at the surface. The slightly lower dewpoints allow for temperatures in dip once again into the low to mid 60s tonight. Monday starts off dry with high pressure exiting the area.
Pesky cold front remains over the area this morning from just north of Chadron to Douglas to Saratoga. Another cold front analyzed over western Montana into southwestern Idaho.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-106 degrees. Another hot and humid afternoon/evening is expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices ranging from 100-106 degrees across the entire area. The higher readings are expected in our western counties and values justify another heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM today. The pattern changes tomorrow as an upper level trough moves east across the upper Midwest, pushing a cold front south into our area. Those north of the front will have a cooler day, with highs in the upper 80s. Those south of it will see temperatures in the low to mid 90s again.
High pressure continues to dominate the lower half of CONUS, centered over Texas. The ridging to the west will begin to amplify today and tomorrow, which will give slightly more influence to northerly flow aloft east of the Rockies. The heat is the main theme for the middle of August as upper ridging remains the dominate feature controlling our weather. The center of the ridge is forecast to retrograde to southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico early this coming week. This high-based activity would propagate southeastward before fading late in the evening/night.
735 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An upper ridge will build across the southeast through the short term.
H5 ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley will keep us warm and mostly dry except for isolated diurnal convection this afternoon and early evening. But models are suggesting that a convective system could drop down the northeast side of the ridge out of central KY and into the Plateau before sunrise Monday morning, so attempted to show an early morning increase in POPs very late tonight.
A few lingering showers will be possible in the south on Monday, but then we look to dry out briefly as weak high pressure settles in.
High pressure settles over the area early this week. The frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the area today, although should continue to weaken as the upper level trough pulls further away to the east.
Very little change in the overall synoptic pattern is expected during the next 2-3 days as a weak upper level low sits nearly idle off the central California coast.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer, mainly just a recovery from the slight cooling we had on the plains yesterday. The low to mid level flow is gradually becoming more W or WNW which will keep this smoke coming more toward Denver over the next few days, instead of north of the city as it has been. A weak cold front will slip southward over the plains late tonight. High temperatures on Monday will be near normal following the passage of a cold front late tonight. As far as thunderstorms are concerned, there will be a slight chance of storms over the higher terrain on Monday afternoon, with isolated late day thunderstorms over the northeast plains. Storms across the plains may struggle a bit more with a slightly cooler post-frontal airmass in place.
/issued 356 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley is expected to remain on the southern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over northern Louisiana during the period. Although the inland portions of the BRO CWFA are expected to remain rain-free, enough available moisture will remain offshore to produce isolated streamer showers over the lower Texas coastal waters at night.
/issued 357 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ The upper-level ridge will continue be a key player across the Mid-South over the next few days. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to yesterday, or perhaps a degree or two warmer in some areas.
Weak mid level troughing to remain through the southeast US this period sandwiched between two height centers on either side. Since there will be more showers and clouds around, I am slightly below NBM highs for today in the low to mid 90s which will place heat indices in the 103-106 range this afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will then fall into the low to mid 70s late.
On the synoptic scale, the summer subtropical upper level high was centered across the Red River Valley to our south with a weak west- southwest flow across western Kansas.
Zonal flow tonight into Monday will allow for some mid level energy to push east across the region as a cold front sags southeast across the western Great Lakes.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue again today with the highest chances favoring southern New Mexico.
1025 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Currently - Ridging extends westward across Florida resulting in light to gentle east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain aligned to our north, although weakened some by day time heating over Florida. There is also a slim but possible chance for development of afternoon cloud lines near the Lower Keys. Ridging across Florida will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes on Keys waters with winds tending stronger over the Florida Straits, and lighter over our gulf side waters.
/issued 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will continue to decrease from previous 24hrs, but SB instability axis/mid-level theta-e ridge do warrant the continuation of isold PoPs across the far wrn areas today. Negligible height falls and just slightly cooler 85h temps support today's high temps in the U90s PB to 103 wrn PB/Upper Trans Pecos. Mid-level theta-e ridge axis will be trapped within the subtropical ridge circulation with a nw steering component still advertised Mon PM.
Cloud coverage has been increasing from west to east this morning with those in the northwestern portion of the CWA seeing cooler temps as a result.
357 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An upper-level ridge continues to dominate the region. The ridge has squandered any rain chances through today and has kept us dry across the Mid-South. Heat index values have reached into the low 100s but have remained below the 105 degree threshold needed for an advisory.