Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A significant warming trend will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds over Central California. Temperatures are running some 3-5 DEG F cooler across most of the San Joaquin Valley while temperatures elsewhere are running fairly close to yday's readings. Some high clouds that have blown off of a weak upper level low pressure system off the Baja coast near 29N/130W have streamed through our area today, but the lower and mid levels remain dry across our area. The 12Z WRF is indicating the large upper ridge that has been responsible for the triple digit heat across much of our area will re-amplify just to the east of our area tonight and Friday with a light southerly flow prevailing over the region.
These clouds were due to a short wave trough passing by to our north. Friday will be warmer as upper ridge builds from the south and clouds decrease.
737 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WET WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS.
The warm weather will likely persist on Wednesday as upper ridge remains just southeast of the region across the lower mississippi river valley.
In the upper levels the 594MB ridge will remain the story, meanwhile what is left of Hermine will remain along the mid atlantic coast. Given the 850MB temp trends will continue to rise Wednesday did keep most spots in the lower 90s for highs Wednesday. Now the aforementioned upper level ridge does begin to slacken by Wednesday night as trough axis swings into the upper plains.
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Fair weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
347 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows large trough over the western CONUS with large dome of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS, leaving modest southwesterly flow over the nation's mid section. At the surface this afternoon, a cold front extended from southwestern Kansas across south central Nebraska and into eastern Minnesota. Main mid level impulse will finally eject out of the main trough Wednesday afternoon leading to increased chances for thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain as the surface front slides south. This boundary will finally push south of the region Wednesday night leaving drier high pressure to fill in behind.
Drier air has moved into the eastern part of the region and this is shown by the lower to mid 60s dewpoints across this region. This will also help overnight lows drop into the 60s but daytime highs should continue to reach the lower to mid 90s. With dewpoints in the 60s, conditions should feel better through the rest of the week despite the presence of the upper ridge.
A warm and humid air mass remains in place across the region, and overnight lows should be similar to last night and perhaps even a few degrees warmer, especially in the urban core of the St. Kanofsky (Until Wednesday Afternoon) Upper level RIDGE domination continues with a near carbon copy of Tuesday. Otherwise, look for one more day of hot and humid conditions where the highest Heat Index values of around 105 are expected in STL metro with around 100 elsewhere.
333 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 An upper trough and jet speed maxima passing overhead late this afternoon and evening will produce breezy conditions. As the trough passes tonight winds aloft should shift from SW to W and drier air will move into the area.
As low pressure lifts north, a weak disturbance will bring a few high clouds and some gusty afternoon winds across northern Nevada through this evening. Frost is a possibility again tonight, however temperatures will warm to near normal the rest of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin.
323 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Warm and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday with lows in the low to mid 70s tonight and highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
235 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The subtropical ridge situated over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley areas today is progged to remain in place through the work week before translating eastward over the southeast states into the weekend.
However, a decent looking system will eject out of the western conus trof, and move across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The forecast has shower coverage decreasing this afternoon as drier air moves in along with stronger high pressure aloft. /issued 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):H5 ridge continues to dominate the lower mississippi valley, with south Texas on the southwestern edge. Models continue to show a gradual decrease in moisture through the next 24 hours, while the H5 ridge drifts in our direction, further capping off the environment. The ridge continues to build in overnight into Wednesday, with any shower chances confined to the marine areas only tonight.
Ahead of the front, dewpoints remain in the lower 70s with temperatures creeping into the lower 80s. High pressure will drift eastward into the CWA late Wednesday afternoon, and should lead to fairly rapid downtrend in PoPs by the evening.
With the confidence of significant convection developing across the local area over the next few hours on the lower side. think that there is a decent chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity developing during the late evening through overnight hours when convection over the high plains begins to ride northeast along the aforementioned boundary.
321 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016 A weak disturbance will head south into the region tomorrow while high pressure holds fast, centered over the Tennessee Valley.
A much more interesting airmass will reside in our east with a period of theta-e advection tonight courtesy of southeasterly flow up the high plains. Instability will steadily increase this evening but mid level capping will remain, with NVA ongoing, so will keep pops low until ascent from Pacific trof arrives.
The powerful ridge will persist across the Southern Appalachian region through the short term period suppressing convective updrafts strong enough to produce a shower or thunderstorm. If a shower develops, it will be very brief in duration due to the large amount of warm air aloft in the strong ridge. Similarly, tomorrow's highs could be another degree or two warmer than this afternoon's maxes. The mid- level ridge will hold in strong across the area with 500 mb heights in the 590-94 dm range. The ridge will also keep convection suppressed across the area.
Showers and thunderstorms had formed over parts of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana with in inverted middle level trough from the Central Louisiana Coast and Gulf of Mexico into East Texas and North Louisiana. This trough of low pressure was riding west under the middle and upper level ridge of high pressure centered over southeast Arkansas and West Central Mississippi which covered much of the Southern States and into the lower Great Lakes Region.
In the upper levels the 594MB ridge will remain the story, meanwhile what is left of Hermine will remain along the mid atlantic coast. Given the 850MB temp trends will continue to rise Wednesday did keep most spots in the lower 90s for highs Wednesday. Now the aforementioned upper level ridge does begin to slacken by Wednesday night as trough axis swings into the upper plains. Specifically, they are all much more similar with respect to the trough moving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes - coming more in line with the GFS solution from 24 hours ago.
The low cloud field will expand to the north overnight, with MVFR ceilings again expected at most of our TAF sites. Carrying a temporary ceiling at KABI, which should be near the northern edge of the low cloud field. /issued 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge over the South Central United States will suppress most showers and thunderstorms development. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, however, will be possible over western and southern sections of West Central Texas, where the upper ridging is weakest. Otherwise the forecast today will be close to yesterday with highs/lows in the lower 90s/lower 70s. Lee trough will continue to bring gusty southeast to south winds of 10 to 20 mph.
203 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather sunny and warm for the remainder of the week.
Deeper layer moisture and northeast flow will hold stratus in longer with much cooler temperatures to the northwest in the 60s and 70s south. Upper trough to the west over the northern Rockies will continue to drop heights into the northern plains today and tonight with stronger waves in the mid and upper levels approaching the Nebraska panhandle late this afternoon into early evening. These waves will be carried along on 120+ upper jet that will drift southeast across western Nebraska through the day as upper trough shifts east. but the associated trough and enhanced momentum aloft will provide for additional shower/storm chances through the afternoon.
Broad anvil precipitation moving across central portions of the CWA up to KABR, while more vigorous convection is occurring along the warm front that is hugging the southern extreme of the CWA, but if it continues on its current path, is expected to move into the KATY area. Fairly strong signal evident in Q vectors for broad lift, with a ribbon of isentropic ascent as high pressure retreats to the east. Thermal advection in the low levels is minimal so will stick with highs in the 70s.
Forecast area remains under northeasterly flow aloft between upper-level ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley and an upper-level trough located off the East Coast. Low-level ridging remains in place over the forecast area as well. 08 A ridge of high pressure aloft will help to suppress shower and thunderstorm development through much of the week.
It should remain warm with max temps in the lower 90s and heat index values between 101 and 105 degrees.
Hot an humid airmass en route early this morning per temperatures in the low to mid 70s across a wide swath of Lower Michigan and dewpoints creeping into the mid to upper 60s at forecast issuance time. Ongoing SW flow in advance of the advancing trough will support another humid day with heat indices in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. Greatest coverage would be closer to the low/dynamic forcing, but forcing within the increasingly moist environment warrants at least a blanket chc pop everywhere. Passage of the trough Wed night/Thurs shunt the warm/moist axis to the south allowing for a gradual return to more typical temps/dewpoints for late week. Moderate pressure gradient will be in place between Atlantic coast high pressure and the next cold front entering the northern Great Lakes and Midwest today.
356 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level high is currently centered over the Mississippi Valley just south of Memphis this afternoon. Warm and humid conditions are in store tonight, with overnight lows expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. With an uptick in 850mb temperatures and perhaps a bit less cloud cover during the afternoon Wednesday, highs are expected to be a little warmer than today, and in the lower to mid 90s.
1223 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Early morning WV imagery shows moist plume within SW flow across the Central High Plains, with a positively tilted trough across the western US. At the surface, low pressure is centered over our northwest CWA, with a cold front over northeast Colorado. Today-Tonight: Cold front will drop south over our CWA and stalls, as trough in the west breaks down and shifts towards the Northern Plains (tonight). Considering the higher PWATs 1.
Also same as yesterday afternoon diurnal CU will continue to develop first in the high terrain and then elsewhere. Warm and dry weather will continue across eastern Kentucky through the end of the day on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region. Temperatures in the short term will average in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs, and in the low to mid 60s for lows. The models remain in good agreement with breaking down the upper level ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley as short wave energy moves from the Continental Divide to the northern Plains and eventually the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by the weekend.
A cold front is expected to sag into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. High pressure over the area will keep skies clear tonight. Wednesday high pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic while the weakening low remains south of Long Island. if not warmer.
A cold frontal boundary has moved into the area just northwest of Dodge City and is stalling out. Overnight lows will be warm from the upper 60s west of Dodge to the low to mid 70s from Dodge and east. For Wednesday, an upper level trough will move into the Central Plains with a moderate upper jet and moist plume shifting east into central Kansas. For Wednesday night into next Tuesday, several upper level waves will bring cold fronts across the Central Plains.
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine will linger off the coast of the Northeast states through Wednesday, while high pressure extends across the Carolinas and Southeast states. Heat begins to return today as high pressure has settled to our south and we start to get some warm advection around the mid-level ridge centered over the mid-South. Little change is expected from today to Wednesday with the formidable mid/upper level anticyclone extending east into the area. Highs in the lower 90s.
Moisture associated with Newton continues to stream northeastward over the region per water vapor imagery, between an approaching Pacific trough and a ridge of high pressure in place across the Southeast. The highest precipitable water values will be across western portions of the area, and as the aforementioned trough moves eastward and Newton begins to take a north-northeasterly track, storms are expected to increase in coverage across the west.
129 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates.
144 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016 High pressure, extending from eastern Canada across our region, will keep things warm and rain-free through Wednesday.
/Issued 428 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ High pressure will continue across the CWFA through the entire short term period. The trough/upper low associated with Hermine will continue to push off the east coast. Meanwhile, a high pressure center currently located across the central Gulf States will build eastward. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build down from the north on the back side of Hermine.
211 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a high amplitude ridge over the southeastern CONUS and trough over the western CONUS. Wednesday will be warmer with gusty westerly winds throughout the day. Highs will range from the low 70s to low 80s.
This appears to be on the CAPE gradient as well as on the edge of the lower 700mb temps near 10C.
325 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. and a trough in the Rockies. SFC ridging Thu night into Fri will keep the area dry for at least Thu night.
604 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. This warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
Ridging over the region should limit coverage of any showers/storms to very isolated and will keep the area above normal for temperatures. For highs Wednesday, will go with in the lower 90s and lows tonight and Wed.
However temperatures will warm to above normal by the end of the week as high pressure maintains dry conditions across the region. Temperatures will warm to above normal by the end of the week as high pressure maintains dry conditions across the region. Temperatures will warm to above normal by the end of the week as high pressure maintains dry conditions across the region. Temperatures will continue to climb today and Wednesday broad troughing pattern breaks down with steadily rising 500 mb heights anticipated over across the Great Basin region for the next several days. Short term temperature trend is a bit slower than 24 hour prior with temperatures across the state running 2 to 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
237 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The subtropical ridge situated over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley areas today is progged to remain in place through the work week before translating eastward over the southeast states into the weekend.
With the high moisture content in the boundary layer, clouds are likely to remain overcast/broken into at least mid-afternoon before scattering.
Today Through Wednesday Night The upper level ridge will remain over the region through the short term period. the upper level ridge will begin to lessen it's influence on the region.
showing strong high pressure anchored over the deep south and producing a dry forecast through the Short Term and beyond. expect near or slightly cooler than normal lows. while highs on Wednesday run 3-5 degrees warmer than normal under ample sunshine. 39 Medium range models continue to show the region dominated by dry weather through the end of the work-week as upper-level ridging persists. Ridge breaks down through the weekend as the tail end of a strong short wave sweeping through the upper midwest and great lakes brushes the region. Associated cold front pushes through most of the area over the weekend, but is expected to stall somewhere across the southern/central portion of the state bringing low to moderate chances for precipitation to the region.
Brief heavy downpours have been observed with this activity but given the 20-25 mph northward motion, duration and coverage of the high rainfall rates should not pose any flooding risk. The low- to mid-level ridge that is over the Lower Mississippi Valley will shift SW into Wednesday and help curtail shower activity to just the coastal plains. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Wednesday with highs peaking in the low and mid 90s areawide.
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. This warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
630 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week.
upper trof. upper trof out west will gradually shift eastward putting increasing lift across CO during the late afternoon and evening hours. There will be some marginal increase in mid/high level moisture as the upper trof axis approaches.
Temperatures are generally similar to readings 24 hours ago west of the Cascades but are warmer on the East Side compared to yesterday at this time.
High pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
After another round of morning low-clouds, Wednesday looks to be dry for most as high pressure builds overhead.
The low clouds and fog will burn off fairly quickly Wednesday after sunrise and with the return of westerly low-level flow. After the low clouds dissipate, skies should be mostly clear to partly cloudy and temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 80s across the Plains with upper 60s and lower 70s in the mountains.
1122 AM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward today and will cross the forecast area on Wednesday.
1040 AM PDT Tue Sep 6 2016 A fast moving frontal system will bring a chance for light rain to the lowlands today south of I-90.
Quiet weather is in store for the short term as weak high pressure builds for Tuesday. A brief slot of drier air aloft will accompany the weak high pressure with skies clearing up from west to east late this morning into Tuesday night. The trough over the western CONUS will finally move over North Dakota Wednesday. A surface cold front will accompany the trough as it moves west to east across the state. Unsettled weather through the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend as a parade of disturbances continue to move through the area, bringing near daily chances for precipitation along with cooler than average temperatures to most locations.
(Issued 1015 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016) A strong area of high pressure is in control of weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning. Model guidance forecast 850 mb temperatures climbing to 26 degrees Celsius, a bit warmer than yesterday. KTW For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions and variable winds up to 6 KTS are expected across N AL/S Middle TN for the next 24 hours as a high pressure system dominates the weather.
Even with subsidence from an upper high situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the period, overnight temps closer to seasonal are expected tonight(mid 60s northeast to around 70 along the coast. Subsidence from the high along with a drier airmass over the fa will allow daytime temps to rise above seasonal averages, which in this case means highs rising into the low 90s, with a few localities in the mid 90s.
Potential for heavy rain tonight so a flash flood watch has been issued for the highway 20 corridor. The boundary from the overnight thunderstorm complex lies along the highway 18 corridor in Iowa and east into the Wisconsin River Valley. As convection develops this evening across far northern Iowa, showers and thunderstorms should slowly develop south into the highway 20 corridor after sunset. As such, a flash flood watch will be issued for the highway 20 corridor from late this evening through mid-day Wednesday. There is uncertainty to the heavy rain risk in the highway 20 corridor east of the Mississippi.
this afternoon under an upper level area of high pressure. Temperatures are generally in the lower 90s with heat index values in the 96 to 104 ranges this afternoon. These conditions will continue into early this evening then temperatures will slowly cool into the lower to middle 70s for overnight lows. Wednesday will be very similar to today weather wise as highs warm into the lower 90s with heat index values of 96 to 104 degrees.
355 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Current surface analysis places high pressure over the area. Upper level analysis places trough over the northern Rockies stretching into the Great Basin. aforementioned trough to the west will start an eastward progression with showers and a few thunderstorms developing over the far west. trough will continue its eastward progression with widespread showers developing and sliding east over the area through the day into the evening hours. though over the west and much of the central instability will be on the low side. The fly in the ointment may be the timing of the trough, as if it advances too quick with cloud cover and shower activity developing early, the instability will have trouble developing.
Main focus will be the incoming cold front. The front, which has been stuck in neutral to our northwest the last couple days, will finally start to drift southeast on Wednesday as the remains of Hermine continue to weaken and a digging trough over the western U. The higher-resolution models start bringing the associated showers/storms into the northwest part of the CWA by mid-late afternoon, although the main focus will be a bit later. Temperatures again should reach the lower 90s on Wednesday, although they made be held a bit down across the northwest CWA where clouds will be more numerous.
Best chance for rain will be across the far nw closer to the main upper trough late tonight into wed.
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Skies are variably cloudy with temperatures varying from the lower 80s to near 90 degrees along the island chain. Surface wise, an area of high pressure (1024 mb) is centered in the Southeast United States with a ridge nosing into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.