Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE MARINE LAYER HAS RETURNED TO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND THIS RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE H5 RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO ONTARIO AND WITH THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST U. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN LOW. THERE IS A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE WITH THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WARMER AIR ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE OPEN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CLOSES OFF WITH OMEGA INCREASING TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OVER PARTS OF NERN WYOMING WHERE THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE AREA OF GREATEST LOW AND MID MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
So far, most of the convective development has been closer to the upper low over our northwestern zones, but we are beginning to see development further southeast and closer to the front.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK WITH MORE SEASONAL VALUES TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST.
306 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING DRY COOL AIR. DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND THE CLOUD COVER. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA, SUPPORTED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION, WILL BRING A FRESH SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE THIS WEEK.
247 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE NEAR TERM /12 TO 24 HOURS/ WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE LOW CLOUDS DECREASE.
327 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR GRTLKS TODAY EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA AT LEAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE FINE LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER TROUGH DID IT'S WORK PUSHING THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS CONCEPT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHICALY LIFTED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WEST/EAST ACROSS THE REGION HAS HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 25 MPH.
12Z MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER WESTWARD AND THE WARM ADVECTION SEEMS RATHER WEAK.
339 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED NICE WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z GFS INSISTS ON DRIVING THIS FEATURE NWD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY OSCILLATE BETWEEN WARMER THAN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE FOLLOWING ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THE COMBITNATION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING.
Along with increased surface convergence in the vicinity of the lee side trough axis, this will support precip development across southwest and west central Kansas tonight. Southerly winds, increased cloud cover, and surface dewpoints in the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) will keep temperatures from dropping below the 60s(F) for lows tonight. Although little change is expected to the overall air mass across the high plains, highs may struggle to reach the 80s(F) Wednesday afternoon as mostly cloudy to overcast skies prevail, not to mention periods of precip through much of the day.
IMPACT WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS A BAND OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. THIS WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WEAK-MODERATE PUSHES OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI.
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SIGNIFICANT MID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA. THE 12Z SHORT TERM MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THE UPPER LOW NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADE IT INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
349 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE TODAY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A 65KT JET STREAK IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRAG ITS MOISTURE WITH IT. PRECIP WILL END ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO OVERNIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THU THROUGH NEXT TUE. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THU AND FRI.
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
609 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD LATE WEEK AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVERHEAD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY LAST NIGHTS MINS PLUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY.
334 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD LATE WEEK AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVERHEAD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY LAST NIGHTS MINS PLUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY.
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
LOW PRESSURE MAY REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN CONUS. DRIER/WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS BUT WILL RETAIN SCHC MENTION NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE/NORTH OF I-4 THRU EARLY EVENING. SKIES BECOMING PCLOUDY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE L70S WITH SOME U60S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COOLER RURAL LOCATIONS. IN THE LOW LEVELS.
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 /18Z TAFS/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SCT250 CLOUD DECK CAUSED BY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIRCULATING AROUND THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW.
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level ridge of high pressure shifting east across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure remains anchored across extreme southeast Colorado with an associated trough axis extending southwestward into northeast New Mexico. Showers and isoalted thunderstorms will move into the High Plains today, reaching far southwest Kansas late in the afternoon. As far as temperatures go, highs will be well above average with highs into the lower 90s along and east of highway 283. A deepening leeside trough at the surface will yield somewhat strong afternoon winds of 15 to 25 mph, especially along/west of Highway 83. That will likely exit late in the afternoon, but there will likely still be some surface convergence along the quasi-stationary lee trough along the southeastern CO/southwestern KS border.
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW PTS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
LEE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO WY. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WED AND THU DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LOWER INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM A COMBINATION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E AND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BEND EASTWARD FAR ENOUGH TO SQUASH THE EVEN LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER.
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SMATTERING OF ENERGY EAST OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS FOR WX SPECIFICS IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENCE.
257 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 This afternoon, a cumulus field has begun to develop over the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and west Texas, with a few showers and thunderstorms already popping up in the Davis Mountains and over the Marfa Plateau. With the midlevel ridge axis currently anchored just east of the region, southwest flow aloft continues to route mid and upper level moisture across the area from the remnants of a decaying tropical system which has morphed into an open wave over the Desert Southwest. Thus, storms that develop this afternoon through tonight, mainly over the higher terrain and adjacent plains, will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Wednesday will be somewhat similar to today, as the midlevel trough to the west begins to lift northeast.
304 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS DUE TO APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH AXIS OF MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE DISTRICT. THIS COOL AIR HAS NOT YET REACHED THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS BAKERSFIELD IS NO COOLER THAN YSTDY. FURTHER SPREAD OF THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT SYNOPTIC COOLING AS WELL. UPPER RIDGING OVER MEXICO WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE ROCKIES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN OFF THE WEST COAST.
111 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NO RAIN FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
CURRENTLY THE TEMPERATURE AT WFO MONTEREY IS 64 DEGREES WHICH IS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE. AT SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE IS 64 WHICH IS 24 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD.
UPPER LOW BRINGS MOUNTAIN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD.
216 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 Very little change is expected with the going weather pattern over the next day or so, with ridging both aloft and at the surface remaining in control across the region. Wednesday looks to be a carbon copy of today, with highs in the low 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. The Ozarks should remain under the control of surface and upper level ridging through the period, largely "sandwiched" between tropical/subtropical moisture both to our northwest and to our southeast.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BROAD SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MID STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WX THRU THU NIGHT. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE AS A WEAK AREA OF RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE SE U. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES TOO.
355 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 OVERALL THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING AND BEING WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W AND RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO THE E WILL CONTINUE. THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY MIXED OUT WELL TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DEWPOINTS. CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 20S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE E/SE BUT STILL COOL IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 60S SE AREAWIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE NW BUT DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE E DRIFTING SW. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THIS AREA WHILE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE SW.
While the ridge axis slowly drifts eastward, cirrus from a weak system to the west edges closer to the region. Although models are shifting the moisture towards ILX after sunset, the higher layer RH from 925-850mb retreats again. By later in the weekend, a northern stream wave will progress across the upper Great Lakes dragging a cold front southeast into the Midwest.
2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
540 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THE REGION WILL HAVE A SUNNY DAY IN STORE.
317 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL. DRY WEATHER IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD, AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FILLS/DISSIPATES, AND UPPER RIDGING RE- ESTABLISHES CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN STATES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR NY/PA.
247 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 90S SOUTH AND THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND BETTER KINEMATIC FORCING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND. AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER GEORGIA WITH A TROF TRAILING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND BUMPED POPS TO SCATTERED AS SHOWERS HAVE TAKEN OFF ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN HAVE POPS GO TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA AND STALLS SOUTH OF HERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WAA/INVERTED TROUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW. THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE SW U.
AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION: A WEAK COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY THE DISSOLVING FRONT MORPHS INTO A WARM FRONT THAT RETURNS NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MN. AND SHOVING THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF US. ASSOCIATED WEATHER: TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A WEAKENED/DISSOLVED COLD FRONT SETTLED IN ACROSS THE CWA.
Along with increased surface convergence in the vicinity of the lee side trough axis, this will support precip development across southwest and west central Kansas tonight. Southerly winds, increased cloud cover, and surface dewpoints in the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) will keep temperatures from dropping below the 60s(F) for lows tonight. Although little change is expected to the overall air mass across the high plains, highs may struggle to reach the 80s(F) Wednesday afternoon as mostly cloudy to overcast skies prevail, not to mention periods of precip through much of the day. That will likely exit late in the afternoon, but there will likely still be some surface convergence along the quasi-stationary lee trough along the southeastern CO/southwestern KS border.
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
DRYER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ANTI- CYCLONIC GYRE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FLANKED BY A DEEP CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL SHUNT THE PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE SUPPRESSING MOST SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THIS FAR INLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A NEAR COPY OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS STILL LINGERING JUST ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER WHICH IS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY EVEN WITH THE TROUGH NEAR BY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER GA OR STAY SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
601 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING DRY COOL AIR. DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND THE CLOUD COVER. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA, SUPPORTED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION, WILL BRING A FRESH SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST U.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGING IN NORTHEAST MID LEVEL WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
144 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROF JUST WEST OF THE AREA IS BRINGING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR ACROSS NE PA AND AREAS OF CENTRAL NY PRIMARILY EAST OF I81. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SPRINKLES EXPECTED TO END OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS BY MID MORNING.
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. FLAT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 An upper level ridge will build into the region today keeping conditions dry and allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will get shunted southward as an upper level disturbance moves into the central/northern Plains. This will force an associated cold front into the Plains. Storms will generally be located in the vicinity of the slow moving cold front however they may hold together long enough to again reach the northwestern CWA.
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. FLAT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.