Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 933 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/ A cold front is moving through the region this evening. Winds will become northerly overnight as cooler air advects in. /issued 305 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/ A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Temperatures will slowly cool off and overnight lows will be in the upper 30s in NE AR to the low 50s in NE MS. In the meantime a trough is digging in over the Desert Southwest and will move over the area on Friday bringing rain and possible thunderstorms. The cold front that moved through the area is expected to stall along the Gulf Coast. It then starts to lift back into the area as a warm front.
Upper low beginning to sag south out of East Idaho per satellite imagery with weak cumulus field over higher terrain and a few weak showers on radar. Northwest flow favors the higher elevations of the Sawtooth Rec Area from Sun Valley north to Stanley, and the higher elevations from Teton Valley south to the Idaho Wasatch, then west across the higher elevations near the Utah border.
A deepening lee surface cyclone across eastern CO is yielding tremendous upslope flow across the foothills of Rockies, with heavy snowfall ongoing across Denver region. A very-nice day is expected today as surface ridging settles overhead, yielding light winds with decreasing clouds by late afternoon.
258 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 Main 500 mb trough/vorticity axis is located in western Manitoba and is moving southeast. Clouds in southern Manitoba closer to main 500 mb trough/vort axis and this will move east today keeping some risk for clouds thru the far northern fcst area. Did side a tad on the warmer side of guidance for most areas, but the spread in possible temps today was pretty small. Southwest winds remain up tonight as 850 mb thermal ridge moves in.
Decent low level WAA will be able to bring us back into the lower 40s in western MN & IA and upper 40s in south- central SD, largely in part to the winds gusting 20-25 mph. As the surface pressure gradient remains tightened across the area, expect windy conditions to continue into the late afternoon hours before decreasing after the associated cold front moves through. One nice side-effect of the strong winds will be that afternoon temperatures will again be in the lower 40s in western MN & IA and lower 50s in south-central SD.
1019 PM MST Wed Feb 24 2021 The midlevel trough continues to sweep southward across the state this afternoon, stirring up some streamer snow showers around KBYG and near South Pass. Weak ridging tomorrow will bring a brief day of tranquil weather, before the next in a series of midlevel waves arrives. An elongated trough and associated jetstreak will be crossing just west of the area to start the period.
The incoming cold front doesn't arrive until late tonight, but given cloud cover and well mixed low level air mass do not expect temperatures to move much from current levels. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 64 40 52 46 / 10 0 40 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 57 38 50 45 / 20 0 30 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 44 58 38 50 44 / 20 0 20 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 55 34 49 39 / 20 0 20 60 60.
1055 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Sunny and a little cooler behind the cold front, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Cooler across Oklahoma and thats the air mass settling into West Central Texas tomorrow. Models are forecasting increasing low cloudiness by sunrise tomorrow morning as a warm and more moist air mass runs up and over this cooler mass settling into the area.
The forecast is generally on track with a weak cold front now approaching the ArkLaMiss region and moving into a strongly capped airmass per 00z JAN raob. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Expect chances for light rain showers tonight across the area as a cold front approaches and moves through the region, then stalls out down near the coast. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s northwest to the middle 50s south. Thursday night into Friday has the highest qpf in the med range.
937 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021 A much cooler night than last night is on tap across the area following the passage of a cold front, with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s and 30s.
Dry weather is expected today with temperatures back to near normal as high pressure builds toward the area from the west. Due to the cold frontal passage yesterday, cold advection will be in place throughout the day over the area, bringing high temperatures back to near normal after the last couple of warm days. A weak upper ridge axis will move into place Friday morning, and this should allow for some cirrus to move in tonight ahead of it. Going into Friday night, light rain is possible across much of the area as a cold front passes through the area with the majority of the forcing south of the area and is associated with an upper level wave.
Temperatures were genrerally in the low to mid 30s across the area with a light northeast wind. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than yesterday with highs from the mid 40s up in central MO to the low 50s in the south.
/Issued 937 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/ A much cooler night than last night is on tap across the area following the passage of a cold front, with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s and 30s.
1248 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure will slowly move offshore tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area from north to south on Thursday. Low pressure will impact the Southeast Coast into the weekend with unsettled weather. Latest infrared satellite showing clear skies area-wide with temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Dry cold front enters the northern tier in the morning. Weak cold air advection and increasing cloud coverage associated with the front will limit highs in the north to the mid to upper 50s while the clearer southern areas will reach the low to mid 60s.
Cooler temperatures today thanks to a cold front that moved through the cwa this morning. Tonight and Thursday: Dry and cooler with generally partly cloudy skies. Lows in the lower 20s at most locations, but a few spots may dip into the upper teens in our far north. Details: Friday and Friday night: Upper level trough approaches from the west with southerly winds pushing temperatures on Friday into the upper 30s north to upper 40s south.
1038 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 Currently - A high pressure system centered well east of the southeastern United States extends a ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is fairly weak and is eroded substantially during the day due to day time heating over Florida. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will be largely split by a migrating mid latitude low further north. Even as the the effects of day time heating wears off, the splitting of this ridge will keep winds light and primarily out of the northeast. A ridge will remain across Florida overnight.
The clouds will clear again early Thursday with high pressure centered to the south. Southerly winds Friday will increase in speed in the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to our southeast and an approaching low from the northwest. Also increased the high temperatures to the 75th percentile for Friday with the strong southerly flow. This results in highs in the upper 30s and low 40s across the forecast area except in west central Minnesota where the lack of snowpack and downsloping winds from the Buffalo Ridge could have some locations approaching 50 degrees.
Forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will combine with upslope flow to foster light snow development mainly west of U. Concurrently, descent behind the trough will result in clearing skies, which will increase radiational cooling overnight and permit lows to drop into the upper teens to upper 20s. This will push a weak, dry cold front through our area Friday evening, but virtually no cold air will exist behind this boundary.
214 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper troughing from Hudson Bay into the north Central CONUS. Highs should climb to around 30 north and the low to mid 30s south. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the northern plains 12z Sun that moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sun and into the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging moves into the Rockies 12z Mon that moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Weak upper troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed with the pattern becoming more amplified by 12z Thu with a ridge in the western U. Expect generally improving conditions to VFR later Thursday afternoon as ridging builds in from the west low- level flow backs to the southwest.
Another front/trough will slide further south into CWA and brings continued snow the mountains with a better chance for John Day Basin and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands, where snow amounts approach warning criteria.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected between 15z-19z at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KSZT before air temperatures climb above freezing. Winds will remain breezy Thu night with clusters of snow showers expected to continue in the lower Idaho Panhandle and possibly around Pullman.
With the last of the convective activity slowly dissipating and moving eastwards out of our atlantic coastal waters, quiet conditions should continue across South Florida during the early morning hours as a high pressure remains in firm control aloft. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will also strengthen allowing for the ridge to dominate the synoptic weather pattern for South Florida over the next couple of days. High temperatures today will reach the low 80s along the Atlantic and Gulf coast to the mid 80s across portions of the southwest interior. Similar conditions will be expected on Friday, with the potential of high temperatures running a little higher thanks to a gradual warming trend underneath a dominant ridge of high pressure.
930 PM PST Wed Feb 24 2021 High pressure building over the Great Basin will bring gusty Santa Ana winds to parts of San Bernardino and Orange Counties tonight through Thursday morning.
(Today and tonight) Much cooler temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas today. Expect highs in the 40s for most locations, except across the Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will be in the low to mid 50s. Overnight, a weak upper level trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Additional rainfall amounts of one tenth to one quarter inch are possible, although some higher amounts are possible within any thunderstorms, with our eastern counties once again favored for the higher amounts.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected between 15z-20z at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KSZT before air temperatures climb above freezing.
501 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Much cooler temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas today. Expect highs in the 40s for most locations, except across the Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will be in the low to mid 50s. Overnight, a weak upper level trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Additional rainfall amounts of one tenth to one quarter inch are possible, although some higher amounts are possible within any thunderstorms, with our eastern counties once again favored for the higher amounts.
Clouds are overrunning a decaying warm front that is now within 60 NM from shore. The mid-level clouds are producing steady returns on radar, but like the high clouds a few hours ago, the dry air in the region is just chewing away at these early clouds. It will take a few more hours before the lower levels moisten enough to where rain will be measured. Road temperatures are above freezing in most of southern Oregon, so any snow that does fall should have a minimal impact on travel. In the Cascades, namely highway 97 road temperatures remain below freezing, so accumulating snow will be easier to achieve from onset of precipitation. The better chance for rain will will come Friday as a second impulse moves through oregon, corresponding to a deepening of the low pressure over SE Idaho.
Southwest today, with the axis of the trough coming through our forecast area after midnight. By late evening through early Friday morning, areas along and east of I-44 may destabilize for thunder as the trough axis moves through. As far as temperatures, expecting cloudiness to increase this afternoon, so for the MaxT went a few degrees cooler than the NBM with the ADJMET.
This cloud cover is along the nrn periphery of a broader area of higher moisture associated with a positively tilted trof across the Rockies. This potential washes out after around 06z as trof axis shifts farther east.
This will set the stage for deepening low pressure over the Plains, tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strong winds developing Friday.
High pressure was located over northwestern Ontario early this morning with a stationary boundary stretching from southern Manitoba to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This activity is expected to taper off by midday with dry conditions for the afternoon as upper level ridging builds in. As the upper ridge passes overhead tonight, winds will turn southerly and become breezy which will help bring in warmer air for Friday.
High pressure continues to push to the east, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest, as a deep low pressure cell and its associated cold front moves northward towards New England. Good upslope precipitation brought from the flow around the high pressure cell, located just off to the east, resulted in around an inch of snowfall across CYS, with the bulk of the moisture remaining to the south over Colorado. Still expect precipitation to end once the high pressure cell dives far enough to the south/southeast to effectively end upslope flow across southeastern Wyoming. Due to the consistencies within the models and the strong subsidence, we went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watches to Warnings for wind prone areas along the I-80 and I-25 corridors.
335 AM MST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure continues to push to the east, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest, as a deep low pressure cell and its associated cold front moves northward towards New England. Good upslope precipitation brought from the flow around the high pressure cell, located just off to the east, resulted in around an inch of snowfall across CYS, with the bulk of the moisture remaining to the south over Colorado. Still expect precipitation to end once the high pressure cell dives far enough to the south/southeast to effectively end upslope flow across southeastern Wyoming. Due to the consistencies within the models and the strong subsidence, we went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watches to Warnings for wind prone areas along the I-80 and I-25 corridors.
High pressure centered over the NE/KS border is in place across the region, and little clouds and calm winds mark the beginning of a largely quiet forecast period. Water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level trough stretching from the NV/AZ/UT border northeastward that is expected to continue advecting ESE. Friday is expected to feature breezy southerly winds, ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through the area from the northwest.
/issued 333 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021/ A cold front extends from the mid-Atlantic states across the gulf states and into Texas this morning. The fog is not really a true advection fog as sfc winds are light and the frontal boundary is allowing for the lower level moisture to rmn in place. Daytime heating will see afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 70s with AEX a bit cooler along the frontal boundary.
In addition, periods of gusty north winds will be possible across exposed ridges and coastal areas.
Warm air advection will boost temperatures a bit more for Friday with highs pretty close or just above average for this time of year, ahead of a cold front moving in from the west.
Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s to near freezing before we should see a fair warm-up back into the 40s by this afternoon.
Warm air advection will boost temperatures a bit more for Friday with highs pretty close or just above average for this time of year, ahead of a cold front/trough moving in from the west. What we will get is some increased wind speed ahead of the trough Friday, and directly behind it Friday evening.
Cooler temperatures today across the Panhandles as cooler air continues to filter in behind the recent cold front yesterday.
High pressure gains control of the forecast area today before an approaching trough brings multiple periods of snowfall Utah and southwest Wyoming.
As the high shift off to the East Coast tonight, a dampening mid-level short wave will shoot east across the lower MS Valley.
A broad upper trough will advance into the west tonight. Moisture and instability, along with ascent from the trough, will lead to likely snow showers for the higher terrain, with isolated to scattered snow showers spilling onto the foothills. High temperatures today will be a little warmer in most locations, with downslope warming.
Airmass near the bottom of the cloud layer will be near or below freezing and near or just above freezing near the top of the layer. Mostly light rain is expected further south and east from this deck, but little or no precipitation is expected at the airports later today as an upper trough passes overhead. To the west, we also were watching an approaching upper level low pressure trough passing the Four Corners this morning that will cross our region this evening as a weaker open wave. Even so, this wave should be sufficient to thicken the low cloud layer and lead to a chance of light rain later today favoring the southern Rolling Plains.
The associated subsidence should keep skies mostly clear with above average high temperatures in the low to mid 40s for most. In the James River Valley temperatures could edge into the lower 50s. Locations downstream (northeast) of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota such as Marshall may be an exception during the early morning hours as downsloping dynamically drives the stronger winds aloft to the surface. A few locations could gust over 45 mph, and Wind Advisories may be needed if model trends continue, especially over southwest Minnesota where the Buffalo Ridge and more favorable diurnal timing aid in mixing.
642 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 High pressure was located south of the area this morning. A weak cold front to the north will push south through the area today. Friday will be a cool day but warmer temperatures should return for the weekend.
At the surface, a low pressure system was analyzed near Jackson, Mississippi with an attendant cold front trailing into Shreveport and back into southeast Texas. Simultaneously, a weak area of low pressure is expected to form along the stalled front and lift it back into our area late Friday night.
A cold front will bring gusty north winds to the area today, with a drop in temperatures.
Otherwise clearing east of the low clouds continues and residual clouds up along ND/MB border are exiting east as short wave moves east. Main 500 mb trough/vorticity axis is located in western Manitoba and is moving southeast. Clouds in southern Manitoba closer to main 500 mb trough/vort axis and this will move east today keeping some risk for clouds thru the far northern fcst area. Did side a tad on the warmer side of guidance for most areas, but the spread in possible temps today was pretty small. Southwest winds remain up tonight as 850 mb thermal ridge moves in.
354 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 (Issued 343 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021) Today and Tonight: Today is looking quiet and cooler as some scattered clouds work their way into the area and as high pressure currently located over the Central Plains pushes east through the day. Daytime temps are expected to top off in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with overnight temps falling into the low 20s to upper teens. Quiet conditions will continue overnight as mid-level ridging progresses through the region.
441 AM MST Thu Feb 25 2021 Ridge building into the Pacific Northwest will flatten out to produce a chinook across the northern Rockies on today. Cold front dips south on Friday pulling a Canadian high into the northern plains. Some upslope snow showers are possible across the southwest zones as the high pushes south Friday night.
The one concern however is with cloud cover today across portions of southwest Nebraska, so did adjust temperatures slightly cooler to attribute for this. An open wave trough moves through the area today, however no precipitation is anticipated as this is a fairly weak disturbance with little lift and lapse rates should not be steep enough to generate any showery type of precip. As for Friday, flow turns westerly bringing in warmer and drier air, combined with full sun, decided to bump temperatures up slightly into the upper 40s, even reaching 50 degrees across southwest Nebraska. A trof will move into the area with a chance of breezier winds moving into western Nebraska Friday afternoon, with wind gust up to 35 mph across the eastern Panhandle.
Satellite loops are showing clear skies across the region as yesterday's upper trough continues to exit towards the Four Corners region. Some moderately gusty winds will continue in the wake of the trough this morning. Another trough will move over the Pacific Northwest today with maybe a few high clouds but little impact otherwise. Temperatures will generally nudge down a little from yesterday with highs near normal in most areas though the Kern County Desert will be a few degrees below normal due to a cooler offshore surface flow from the Great Basin. Friday will see the next trough swing through the Pacific NW with a dry northwest flow aloft continuing over central California.
919 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 A beautiful and quiet weather day expected over the state as high pressure sits right off the west coast. Temperatures will rebound quickly from the cooler morning we had with most of us around 80 degrees by this afternoon. This ridging will favor light winds and clear skies, with favorable radiational cooling leading to a cool start to the morning today, with patchy fog possible around sunrise. This stacked ridging will favor broad subsidence, with stable conditions leading to clear skies and warming temperatures.
With very dry conditions, a general lack of snow cover, and strong southwest winds, went on the higher end of the spectrum for today's highs. Generally went with the 90th percentile which leads to highs in the 40s east to the low 50s in central South Dakota. In addition, with the Grassland Fire Danger Index remaining in the high category or less for all but Corson County, decided against headlines for now.
A small bubble high pressure will move east from the Gulf of Mexico and produce a north to northwest breeze which will advect noticeably lower dewpoints into ECFL. Weak high pressure will build over the area today from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and produce a NW-N flow 10-14 kts which will spread from north to south across the local Atlc waters this morning.
A small bubble high pressure will move east from the Gulf of Mexico and produce a north to northwest breeze which will advect noticeably lower dewpoints into ECFL. Lows in the low to mid 50s, except lower 60s coastal Martin county.
Today Through Friday Night Broad longwave troughing was noted across the CONUS per mesoanalysis this AM. Strong mid-lvl WAA/frontogenesis will be noted over the AR/LA border vicinity late Thurs night, overtop a cooler and more stable sfc bndry layer. The stalled bndry will remain in place over the AR/LA border and keep cooler temps in place again for the day, w/ most readings in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
333 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 A cold front extends from the mid-Atlantic states across the gulf states and into Texas this morning. The fog is not really a true advection fog as sfc winds are light and the frontal boundary is allowing for the lower level moisture to rmn in place. Daytime heating will see afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 70s with AEX a bit cooler along the frontal boundary.