Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main storm track for the short term will be over the Northern Plains, however a pesky area of low pressure in the mid levels currently over eastern Colorado is forecast to drift eastward during that time. Water vapor satellite imagery does a nice job depicting the ridging across the central U. As the H5 trough breaks down the ridge over the Northern Plains.
/issued 1012 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ At 10 AM CDT around the region, temperatures have already climbed into the low to mid 80s. A cold front that pushed into the region yesterday is roughly located along this same location, and will be a weak focal point for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, mainly across north Mississippi. Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across most of the area this and will maintain a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-40. The subtropical ridge will assert more influence on the forecast as we head through the work-week.
219 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Drier and cooler air continues to move into the region with a cold front passage. The low humidity and gusty winds remain the main concern for today for increased fire weather activity.
Precip chances will linger across western Kansas today as short range models indicate the weak upper level low across eastern Colorado lifting slowly northeast into Nebraska during the period. Little change to the general air mass and increased cloud cover will keep highs from climbing out of the mid to upper 80s(F) across west central Kansas to highs still possibly reaching the lower 90s(F) further south and east. Expect lows down into the 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F) tonight. Otherwise, ridging aloft will dominate from the South Plains northward into the high plains of western Kansas the remainder of the week leading to much drier and hotter conditions across the region. A warm front will move north by 12z, with winds becoming southerly and increasing with daytime heating to 10-15 kts by 15-16z.
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will continue to push through the region into this evening. High pressure will then build in to bring dry weather and seasonably cool weather to start the week.
Elsewhere, local radars are detecting widely scattered showers and on the nearshore and offshore waters south of the Lower Keys. Surface wise, a trough of low pressure is located over our region, with a subtropical ridge axis into the northwest Bahamas. A weak low level trough nearby will slowly dissipate tonight, as high pressure just to our north gradually extends across south Florida for the early part of this week. This ridge axis will lift northward into central Florida by the middle of this week. Our area will lie on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge with considerable dry air above 850 mb. Shower and thunderstorms may impact EYW & MTH through 17/00z, with EYW having the highest probability.
This AM at the surface, the low pressure system has moved off of New England and into the Atlantic Ocean. What is left of the cold front is stalled from east to west from VA to TN to S MO. A closed upper low is over the Great Lakes Monday morning with a trough stretched down through the Southeast US. The weak cold front we're dealing with today will slowly push southward, stalling in the Florida panhandle by Monday night.
Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis indicate a series of vorticity lobes embedded within broader-scale troughing over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a pronounced upstream ridge was depicted from the Four Corners into the Canadian prairie provinces with a subtle mid-level low over the central High Plains. In the low levels, a weak baroclinic zone stretched from southern WI westward across northern parts of IA and NE into the northern High Plains as of 06z. This low pressure will subsequently develop east across the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley through Monday night while a trailing cool front edges south through the northern Plains.
326 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 The cold front that moved into the region last night is currently weak and situated just south of Interstate 40. Dew point values are still in the low 70s across north Mississippi, and a few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening as the front continues to ease south. A large ridge of high pressure aloft is currently centered over portions of eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This ridge will gradually build into the region tonight and into Monday, signaling the start to a warming trend for the region.
Mid level ridge axis currently over the fa. with highs in the 80s and lows in the lower 60s through the end of the period.
138 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Aviation A cold front will drop south through the state today bringing with it some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms will be most numerous this afternoon in the far south and southeast parts of the Lower Peninsula. High pressure will build in tonight and the first part of the work week.
205 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Plume of deep moisture continues to linger over our CWA (apparent on WV imagery), with mid-upper low near CO border. Monday: Main mid-upper low should be northeast of our CWA, but lingering forcing on back side of system may support continued shower and thunderstorms chances in our northeast and east.
Axis of low level high pressure ridge settling slowly south over the Atlantic will provide a light, mostly southeast/south wind flow.
1150 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 The upper low pressure that has persisted along the Colorado front range the past day or two and its associated batch of rather moist air is forecast to drift slowly northeast into extreme southwest Nebraska by days end continuing northeast into central Nebraska overnight. For Monday the low lifts a bit faster northeast toward South Dakota.
Dewpoints in the 60s have kept heat indices in check, with readings in the low to at most, mid 90s. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Monday as upper level ridging strengthens across the central US. Highs should be in the low to mid 90s area-wide.
251 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Convection has begun to develop this afternoon across eastern IA and northern IL along a weak cold front stretching across northern IL & IN up into MI. Highs tomorrow will be near or 1-2 degrees warmer than today.
1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 At 08z, radar indicated a subtropical upper level low near Goodland KS. Heavy convection fired south of the upper low this evening across southeast Colo. The models lift the upper low into Swrn Neb tonight and ambient precipitable water increases to over 1.
The short wave trof that kicked off heavy rainfall south of Birmingham this morning has pushed southward and triggered convection along the I-85 corridor. With the short wave trof lifting out of the area this evening, do not anticipate a repeat of last night and expect little if any convection lasting past midnight. A closed upper low is over the Great Lakes Monday morning with a trough stretched down through the Southeast US. The weak cold front we're dealing with today will slowly push southward, stalling in the Florida panhandle by Monday night.
1028 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Today will be breezy and cooler behind a cold front that moved through the region overnight. Winds will subside overnight leading to a cooler than average night tonight.
Model guidance is well-aligned for the next several days, indicating that we'll be in a broad west-southwest flow aloft with an upper level trough near and just off the coast of British Columbia.
Several weak perturbations continue to drift over the Southern Plains beneath a broader upper ridge that has be compromised by deep moisture, at least over a good portion of TX. Trends are down from earlier model depictions for Monday, since the center of the low pressure system has trended farther south. Rain chances should diminish much faster Monday evening versus today as the low pressure system continues drifting SW.
321 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis shows skinny high pressure stretching across the state, sandwiched between a weak front slowly sinking south across northern Ohio, Indiana and Illinois and a stationary front draped across the Tennessee Valley. The weak area of high pressure will remain in place overnight.
306 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A closed upper low was analyzed in east central Colorado at 20z. A closed low center over the CO-NE-KS border will lift slowly into southwest Nebraska overnight. On Monday, this closed low will be the main weather feature, with abundant moisture and chances for precipitation up to 50 percent from southwest into central Nebraska thorough the day. To the west and north, highs will reach the low to mid 90s. The closed low will become an open wave as it moves into eastern Nebraska overnight.
Texas will remain under the weak underside of Southern Plains ridging that will allow weak eastern disturbances to travel in from the Gulf or move down out of the Mississippi River Valley and around the eastern flank of a 592-ish dam 5H high. ridge expanding further eastward into the Ohio river Valley by late week.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures, but slightly lower, for the next few days. However, enough instability remains over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, so isolated thunderstorms could develop mainly from Yosemite to Sequoia NP until this evening. Today's and Monday's high temperatures will remain several degrees above average in much of the region, as the high pressure ridge remains in place.
253 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 High pressure centered over NV will begin to elongate across the Four Corners over the next 24 hours. The center of high pressure becomes a little more round and organized midweek and begins to shift eastward thanks to an oncoming closed low into the Pacific NW.
500 mb ridge holds over the CWA during the next 24 hours, resulting in light and variable sfc winds and warming temps. Persistent weather pattern from yesterday suggests similar highs are in store today with readings in the low 90s over east central Kansas, to the middle 90s in north central KS. Monday morning lows are currently around 70, however may be a few degrees warmer dependent on convection and residual cirrus that develops this evening.
This is a negative for convective development since rising air parcels do encounter warmer temperatures aloft and then just settle back down. Starting the new week with some uncertainty of how long this tropical airmass will remain in place and how fast a ridge of high pressure will build down from the central US.
253 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front was able to kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms over extreme southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon. At 2 pm, temperatures were in the lower 80s along the Cumberland Plateau, with mainly middle and upper 80s elsewhere.
336 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak mid level trough or shear axis extending extending from the mid atlantic region into northwest Gulf Coastal region is expected to persist over the next couple of days.
Have spread the low pops north to include the entire forecast area though based on current radar trends and the latest HRRR output.
309 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region tonight into the early part of the the work week. Kept PoPs overnight in the 20 to 30 range at the highest. By Monday morning the upper s/w will be east of the region, but a sfc trof will be lingering across the ern zones. A few storms could linger into the evening hours, but overall expect Monday night be dry, with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
221 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected today through the week.
The upper-level pattern is forecast to become slightly more progressive this week as a broad ridge over the WRN/CNTRL CONUS breaks down.
254 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A large upper level high pressure ridge will remain across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains will remain in place into midweek with the polar jet across the Pacific Northwest and Southern Canada, which will push a series of weak cold fronts south across the area.
The remainder of the forecast area remains under the influence of a (somewhat) cooler airmass associated with a progressive upper level trough in British Columbia. Cooler high temperatures (but still near or above seasonal averages) will prevail on Monday along with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and breezy west to northwest winds.
232 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 As high pressure drifts east, an approaching frontal system will bring a return to more humid weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday.
238 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 The overall synoptic pattern is one of mid level ridging over much of the Great Plains and the west while the mean westerlies remain north along the Canadian boarder. At the surface, a broad ridge of high pressure stretching from the upper Midwest to the southern high plains was gradually weakening and a relatively moist boundary layer remained over central and eastern KS. So the forecast is calling for highs similar of slightly warmer than todays with readings in the lower and mid 90s. The weather pattern for the upcoming week will be dominated by a large upper level ridge across the central CONUS with the jet stream shunted up into the northern states.
Regional radar shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the trough, well within the tropical-like airmass. The weak trough is expected to slowly sag south today. As in the past few days, with light BL winds and PWATS south of the trough 2"+, storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall.
/issued 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ Persistent upper ridge over the SW US and Central Plains will strengthen the next few days as the center shifts east. Morning lows will remain elevated due to the high dewpts in the 60s and abundant cloud cover. Will have good chance of storms next few days west of the Pecos River especially over the higher elevations with pops going through the extended.
This stratus has oozed into area in behind cold front now passing through Ohio Valley. Cold front now in process of slipping south of the border, with surface riding and lower dew pts (note 50s in northern lower Michigan) working in for the early evening hours, ending any thunderstorm chances. Good start to the work week weatherwise, as large upper level ridge centered over the Central Plains tracks East. The associated ridge axis will fold over Lower Michigan Monday Night. Weak wind field around on Monday, along with some diurnal flat cu, but should see highs predominatly in the upper 70s to around 80 with 850 mb temps around 12 C, slightly cooler northern Thumb region with onshore northeast flow.
The inverted trough/upper level weakness over the region will gradually shift westward into northeast Mexico through the period. Monday will be a few degrees cooler with more cloud cover and rain expected, but still bring highs in the 90s across the region.
Another unseasonably cool mid-July day across the north woods as deep layer north flow is maintained within overhead trough axis. Large scale pattern set to go through some significant changes over the next few days as strong trough rotates off the Pacific. This will do a number on the northern extent of current western ridge, plowing it east into the northern Great Lakes later Monday and Monday night. Surface response will be as one would expect as this occurs, with high pressure building south into the region and temperatures warming in the process. High pressure and low level dry air will continue to build south into the region tonight. High pressure builds directly overhead Monday as its mid level likeness does the same by late in the day.
The coming week will be hot as an upper level ridge currently centered to our northwest builds east across the Central Plains.
559 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week.
The showers and thunderstorms will dissipate during the evening, and return during the day Monday as heating, the remaining remnants of the trough and another disturbance aloft rides West under the Southern periphery of the upper level ridge expanding into the area. The higher rain chance for Monday looks to have a more shift to the South. Additional development is expected during peak daytime heating as the trough slowly moves south.
High pressure is moving east, setting us up with a 10 to 12mb pressure gradient and pressure falls at about 7mb.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s across the area.
with the upper ridge building back over our area by the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region over the next couple of days, resulting in continued hot temperatures.
An upper level trough will continue to dig southward into the southeastern CONUS today, a fairly anomalous pattern for the middle of July when our area is usually under deep layer ridging. Just to the south of this trough, ample deep layer moisture will persist across our area with PWAT values expected to range from 2. Effective bulk shear is also expected to increase to 20-25 kts by the late afternoon and early evening, mainly closer to the trough across our northern areas.
/Issued 359 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ A closed upper low over eastern Colorado and western Kansas will lift northeast into the central Plains states tonight weakening into an open wave as it heads towards the upper Midwest.
Convective allowing models (CAMs) also suggest thunderstorms will form along the cold front as it moves into North Dakota this afternoon and overnight.
/issued 326 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ The cold front that moved into the region last night is currently weak and situated just south of Interstate 40. Dew point values are still in the low 70s across north Mississippi, and a few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening as the front continues to ease south. A large ridge of high pressure aloft is currently centered over portions of eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This ridge will gradually build into the region tonight and into Monday, signaling the start to a warming trend for the region.
544 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will stall over northern New England tonight and will lift back to the north on Monday.
Cold front is moving into Stillwater and Golden Valley at this time.
The cold front will continue to sink south, dropping into Missouri and southern Illinois by the end of the day. This will allow an area of high pressure currently over North Dakota and Ontario to drop southeast and be over the Great Lakes through Monday.
Weak upper troughing will remain over the region, stuck between upper ridges over the western Atlantic and the middle of the country. The base of the upper trough will shift slowly southward into northeast Florida late Monday afternoon.
153 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region late this afternoon into Monday. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s. By Monday morning the upper level short wave has pushed towards western New York with the trough axis being centered across our eastern zones (putting most of the area in weak upper level convergence). Forecast soundings at this time don't look impressive with mid and upper level dry air wrapping around the back side of the upper level low. Mid and upper level ridging will try to build east northeast toward the region through mid week but our area will mainly remain on its edge.
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A cold front will stall out across northern Maine tonight and will lift back to the north as a warm front on Monday.
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 As high pressure drifts east, an approaching frontal system will bring a return to more humid weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday.
Beyond that, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be dry as the upper ridge builds and expands across the eastern Plains.
252 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A cold front just north of Lake Erie will continue to move slowly south and is expected to cross the local overnight and early Monday.
The upper ridge will build into the area during the week, with the hottest temperatures, including at least a few triple digit highs, reserved for the end of the work week.
For Monday, particularly the pm hours, the boundary laid out is modeled to hover across the lower Ohio river vicinity, as the trof energy spills across the area in more earnest.
Just a few clouds along the Cascade crest with the low level onshore flow on the west side. An upper level trough moving across southern BC and the Pacific northwest has brought in cooler air.
Added some pops and mention of freezing rain/sleet, though this looks very isolated in coverage and some may be evaporating before reaching the ground. An area of low pressure, currently over Alberta will track southeastward across the region today. Warmer temperatures will move into the region today with highs ranging from the mid 30s, in western MN, to the upper 50s and low 60s, west of the Missouri Valley. An upper level ridge, along with southwesterly winds will usher in much above warmer temperatures into the region on Thursday.
538 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 A ridge of high pressure remains sprawled across the area early this morning. This ridge is progged to translate south and east allowing southerly winds to return to much of central and portions of south central KS this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to moderate across central KS with highs climbing into the upper 50s/around 60 while much of southeast KS struggles to mix out with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 40s.
Temperatures have fallen into the teens over north central Kansas to the lower 20s in the east central, which is 5-10 degrees below climatology for this time of year.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 34 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 31 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 0.
High pressure will dominate the wx today with clear skies. VFR conditions today with high pressure in control producing clear skies and light NW breeze this mrng becoming SW this aftn. A ridge of high pressure will shift ewd across srn WI today, with swly winds and weak warm advection beginning in the afternoon. Full sunshine and the weak WAA should be able to boost temps into the lower to middle 30s, before the high clouds arrive for late afternoon. Forecast soundings show the low levels of the atmosphere remaining fairly dry in srn WI, with better chances of saturation to the north.
High pressure will continue to produce dry and warm weather across our entire region through Wednesday. Rain chances return to the North Bay on Thanksgiving, but the rest of the region is expected to remain dry with continued warmer than normal temperatures.
The low pulls a weak cold front/trough through the area tonight with winds briefly turning to the northwest, but in the modified airmass lows will not be that bad - in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft, courtesy of a highly-amplified ridge over the western CONUS. An upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the PacNW later in the week, dampening the ridge somewhat and transitioning flow aloft to NW.
Higher confidence that main accumulations will be along and north of the Highway 200 corridor, generally less than an inch, but could see spotty light snow as far south as Interstate 94 and into west central MN this afternoon. Additionally, cannot quite rule out freezing drizzle along the back edge in north central MN as drier mid level air moves in, but this looks less likely than previously suggested.