Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1026 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A deep plume of moisture will provide for clouds and showers lasting into Monday until the weak upper trough moves to our east. A large ridge to our southwest will slow provide above normal heights and temperatures to the region. Most of the week will be dominated by this ridge. The higher probability of rain/showers shifts eastward overnight.
655 PM PDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Unsettled weather is expected for the work week as a large area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Look for breezy winds for the first part of the week, followed by cooler and showery weather.
Upper impulse ahead of approaching trough is pushing into the area this evening producing scattered convection. Seabreezes will collide near the highway 301 corridor by 01z which will aid shower development. Upper trough will move into the area on Monday which will result in numerous showers and thunderstorms by afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 88 65 91 / 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 86 64 87 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 86 63 88 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 83 60 85 / 60 10 10 10.
740 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight. Trough and weak boundary will push east diminishing showers Monday afternoon.
911 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A dissipating cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will begin to build over the region from the southwest later tonight. This high will linger over the region through Monday night.
Upper trough will swing across the mid state overnight.
Zonal flow early in the period will gradually back to the southwest ahead of an upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest.
/00Z TAF CYCLE/ VFR conditions prevail across South-Central Texas with most of the low to mid cloud cover dissipating through the late afternoon hours. High pressure continues to strengthen over South Central TX today into Monday, leading to a threat of record highs. SAT has the best chance of reaching a record with slightly cooler records to reach than our other 3 climate sites. The upper ridge appears to be doing a fine job of deflecting much of the moisture over the unstable Eastern Pacific/TS Paine well to the west of South Central TX, but it will be interesting to see if a small amount of this moisture wrapping around the periphery of the mid/upper level Ridge is sufficient to destabilize the mid levels as a weak mid level shear axis sags south into Central TX late Monday.
752 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A weak cold front moving into the forecast area will merge with low pressure off the southeast coast Monday. A trough will linger near the coast through much of the week and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. Convection has been flanking the forecast area all afternoon with sea breeze convection pushing in from the east and light showers associated with an approaching upper trough arriving from the west. There should be little convergence associated with the front because of the northwest low-level flow on the backside of offshore low pressure.
722 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will provide generally quiet weather into midweek with above normal temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 50s and highs on Monday will reach into the lower 80s.
833 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight. Trough and weak boundary will push east diminishing showers Monday afternoon.
847 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016 The showers across northwest Wisconsin and the increasing high clouds across the south are associated with warm air advection ahead of the next approaching trough. The main focus will be on the potential for stronger convection along the approaching trough/cold front over the southeast half of the forecast area late Monday afternoon and evening. We should remain VFR across the area overnight into Monday as clouds increase from the west due to warm air advection ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure and cold front.
717 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 A cold front will slowly pass through the area tonight bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area. High pressure behind the front will bring dry weather for much of the rest of the week. Lrg upr low well north in Canada dvlps a broad trof over the nrn US into the ern lakes. Any effect from the trof shd remain north of the fcst area thru the pd althoughn an isltd aftn shwr psbl in the far north.
The low level winds are pretty weak. Minimum temperatures Monday night will be warmer as warm advection continues to push into the area under the upper ridge.
Strong high pressure with above normal 500 mb heights remains squeezed and locked in between a zonal flow entering the Pacific Northwest and a closed, mostly barotropic, low off the southern California coast. The high is forecast to gradually weaken through mid-week, especially once a trough located to our northwest begins to sweep in over the area as the polar jet over the central Pacific splits into northern and southern branches pushing against amplifying westerlies entering western North America by late week and weekend.
Substantial capping in place as well with warm base of elevated mixed layer inhibiting initiation and as noted in SPC discussion, no significant large scale forcing with the parent upper low well to the west. There also seems to be some general agreement among the high res models for convection spreading into western ND after 00z. Therefore, expecting convection to continue overnight with support of strengthening low level jet, which leads into Sunday where the effects of better large scale forcing associated with the upper low approaching from the west will increase.
However, weaknesses aloft within the upper level trough sagging southward over the region will help to keep at least slight chances going through early Sunday morning with higher chances returning during the heating of the day on Sunday. So, have adjusted pops accordingly with the higher chances over East Texas tonight before diminishing slightly after midnight. as a weak upper trough axis drifts S and could interact with residual convective bndrys in place.
Another weak cold front is expected to approach the Carolinas by the end of the work week. In fact, temps are expected to be a shade cooler than today.
1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A trough will prevail across the interior Carolinas overnight.
201 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Isolated thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado this afternoon along the lee trough. with the upper level ridge axis very close. Nearly zonal upper level flow with chances for rainfall and cooler temperatures. Sunday evening an upper level short wave trough will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area where the retreating dry line will be located. Late Sunday night a cold front will begin moving south through the Tri-State Area ahead of the primary upper level short wave trough over the Great Basin.
The weakening upper ridge remains in place this afternoon, however it is eroding from the north as a disturbance moves across the plains. The sub-tropical ridge will remain centered over the Atlantic and stretch into the northern gulf coast through the period.
These winds will combine with low RH values to produce elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, especially for the High Deserts, Sunday afternoon and evening. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 915 pm, An unseasonably deep trough of low pressure was propagating inland along the West Coast.
as a weak upper trough axis drifts S and could interact with residual convective bndrys in place. As retreated upper ridge builds eastward back into TX, pops will again diminish by mid week with temps back towards upper 90s.
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will drift south tonight and stall near the North Carolina-South Carolina border as weak high pressure build into the region from the northwest Sunday.
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region, bringing drier air and slightly cooler temperatures. Overnight lows in the lower 60s to upper 50s, with the cooler temperatures closer to the center of the ridge in the NW. Slightly warmer temperatures near 80 to lower 80s.
A strong low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions across the area through Sunday.
420 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Scattered thunderstorms, mainly east of Interstate 81, will gradually exit this evening with the passage of a cold front. The weather will turn cooler for Sunday with scattered rain showers lingering mainly in Central New York.
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 00Z TAF Cycle An upper trough will approach the Panhandles this evening as northwesterly flow aloft prevails.
they should continue overnite and into Sun morning as the upper trof moves through Norcal. far northern California will be on the backside of the low with west-northwest flow aloft, so shower chances will likely be limited to areas farther to the north and east. Temps should run slightly warmer on Sun as the trof moves E and the Delta Breeze weakens.
930 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front crosses the area tonight.
A low pressure system off the Washington coast will continue moving southeast and will be over northwest Oregon early Sunday morning.
958 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A trough will prevail across the interior Carolinas overnight.
Development has required some midlevel confluence or convergence along a banded structure that is still associated with the upper level low to our east. Some patchy light fog may develop in the favored cold spots and near the much warmer inland bodies of water.
630 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A deep low pressure system moves through the region this weekend, with cool temperatures and rain showers, some which could produce moderate rainfall amounts. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Numerous small scale disturbances rotating around the edges of a larger low pressure area centered off the coast will keep unsettled weather at times over parts of Southeast Washington and Northern Idaho.
934 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper trough axis remains over the area this evening. /Issued 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/ A NE-SW oriented mid level trough axis is sliding slowly south across the region today, on the eastern side of the ridge centered near the AZ/NM border. with the best chances in the east near the lingering mid level low/trough.
710 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A deep low pressure system moves through the region this weekend, with cool temperatures and rain showers, some which could produce moderate rainfall amounts. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Numerous small scale disturbances rotating around the edges of a larger low pressure area centered off the coast will keep unsettled weather at times over parts of Southeast Washington and Northern Idaho.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 70 91 / 20 30 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 85 64 87 / 10 10 10 20.
334 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure across the Desert Southwest will keep the region dry in the near term forecast period and beyond. A low pressure system moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest this weekend will significantly tighten the pressure gradient over the next 48 hours. In addition to the Red Flag Warnings already in place, have issued wind advisories for the Eastern Uinta Basin in NE Utah and the Lower and Central Yampa Basins in NW Colorado for Sunday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, like yesterday expecting additional thunderstorm activity to move off the High Plains this evening, although given weak forcing suspect this activity will tend to diminish after sunset somewhere over western Kansas.
General trend through Sunday morning will be increasing instability north of the Snake Basin in Idaho, and gradual increase in moisture in all zones as upper low comes in from Washington. Locally heavy rain is expected in Baker County including the Cornet/Windy Ridge burn scar. Weak cold front in eastern Oregon may generate an outflow boundary that moves into the Treasure Valley this evening, but weaker than last evening when Idaho was warmer than it is today. Main cold front will move across Idaho zones Sunday morning with increasing showers and thunderstorms, followed by windy and very cool weather with a chance of showers continuing into Sunday evening.
233 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn Rockies beginning to shift into the nrn plains. Short wave moving through the ridge producing isold shra/tsra across nern WY and far SD. broad low pressure extends from sern MT through wrn SD. Even hotter temps expected with thermal ridge centered over wrn SD.
A strong cold front will sweep across Utah and southwest Wyoming by Sunday afternoon, resulting in much colder temperatures for the first part of the upcoming week.
853 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Scattered thunderstorms, mainly east of Interstate 81, will gradually exit this evening with the passage of a cold front. The weather will turn cooler for Sunday with scattered rain showers lingering mainly in Central New York.
Also for Sunday aftn high temps in the low 90s and dew pts in the low 70s in far southwestern fcst area gives heat indices over 100 and this warrants a heat advisory sunday aftn.
with a weak sfc trof (or weak cold front) moving down into the deep south on Sunday as well.
From late tonight into Sunday, the models are in good agreement that the upper level ridge will build east into Minnesota and Iowa tonight. In addition, it will be tapping into 2 to 3K most unstable CAPES which are located in the the upper level ridge.
North of the front, cooler and drier air will continue to dominate the weather across central and southeast Illinois. The ridge axis will pass from west to east across Illinois tonight, helping to provide clear skies and light winds. A high pressure ridge is settling into the region bringing drier and cooler air into the Midwest.
A strong low pressure system will move across northern Nevada tonight and sunday bringing strong gusty winds and much cooler temperatures, along with showers and thunderstorms across the far north.
Lee side troughing today has allowed for an area of convergence to form along the eastern side of the trough in northeastern New Mexico.
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A trough will prevail across the interior Carolinas through tonight.
1247 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Low pressure will cross the region overnight through Sunday.
Overnight lows will remain on the warmer side (only in the upper 60s and low 70s). Hottest temperatures are forecast across the north (mainly Keya Paha and Boyd counties) with air temperatures reaching up into the upper 90s and heat indexes in the low 100s.
1213 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A cold front will slide through our region tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms developing west central Idaho this afternoon on the leading edge of the low near the Washington coast.
This mornings upper air analysis showed a broad area of high pressure over the Desert Southwest with a broad upper level ridge extending northeast into the northern Plains. Surface analysis shows a weak trough situated along the Kansas/Oklahoma border from Elkhart to near Ashland. The upper level ridge will build somewhat through tonight before being shunted eastward on Sunday as a closed upper low pressure system moves into the northern Rockies. There was some weak convergence along the trough over far eastern Colorado this afternoon and a few storms have developed around and northeast of Limon, CO in the vicinity of the trough and Palmer Divide. Sunday could be a few degrees warmer than today with high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
Maintained isolated PoPs through early evening along/ east of the low-level convergence zone.
A low pressure system centered just off the coast will move over Oregon on Sunday.
A strong low pressure system will move across northern Nevada tonight and Sunday bringing strong gusty winds and much cooler temperatures, along with showers and thunderstorms across the far north.
though lack of forcing and high pressure subsidence kept storm coverage rather minimal today. /issued 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/ Current synopsis shows a broad upper level trough passing across the northeastern United States and extending southward to the Appalachian Mountains while ridge is in place over the mid section of the country. At the surface the Bermuda ridge is extending westward across the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping moisture and dewpoints high across the CWA.
Wave across eastern Nebraska now starting to settle away, and on water vapor can see the ridging aloft expanding across the northern plains. Low level moisture push evident with cumulus field pushing north across eastern Nebraska, and on dew point readings pushing into the lower 70s. Best bet would be for something across southern North Dakota or extreme northern South Dakota taking the turn southeast, and brushing toward the highway 14 corridor later in the night, mainly toward SW MN.
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A high pressure ridge is settling into the region bringing drier and cooler air into the Midwest.
Nam shows an upper level trough over the Rockies and a broad ridge over the central U. This trough moves very slowly to the east and is in the northern plains by 00z Wed. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed which remains through 12z Fri. The trough then broadens out on Sat. VFR conditions will remain the rule as high pressure dominates the region through most of the forecast. There is a very slight chance that showers will enter the far western sections of Upper Michigan Sunday afternoon as the ridge starts sliding east, but have left a mention of this out of the KIWD TAF for now.
As retreated upper ridge builds eastward back into TX, pops will again diminish by mid week with temps back towards upper 90s.
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Remain stuck between exiting high pressure across WI and nearing low pressure over MT/WY and the far western Dakotas.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday as the upper ridge aloft moves eastward.
741 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A trough will prevail across the interior Carolinas through tonight.
Some questions exist as to the magnitude of the instability and proximity of the low level jet (LLJ) being off to the west in MN.
Further west, a closed upper low in the pacific NW was pumping up heights in the central conus. Synoptic pattern evolution: The pressure gradient slackens tonight as the high pressure works in over the region into Sunday. Light winds will provide for cooler overnight lows. The PAC NW upper low rolls into the nrn Rockies, pumping the ridging up even further to our west. We see some rising heights and slightly warmer temperatures reaching the low 80s most areas. Cooler lakeshores with lake breezes developing in the afternoon. High pressure builds into the region. The going forecast is also dry, and am thinking that the precipitation is extending too far south along the weak warm front.
The low was spinning off the WA coast per water vapor imagery. The low will move over the area Sun. The best moisture will be over the W tonight supporting the best chances for precipitation behind a weak cold front.
The heat looks to make a return by mid to late week as ridging from the northwest will give the shear axis a nudge to the east allowing drier/warmer air to increase in the column over the forecast area. The reduced convection and cloud cover should allow maximum temperatures to return to the mid 90s as heat indices push into the lower 100s. The models are hinting that the mid level ridge may begin to break down somewhat moving into the weekend which should yield better lapse rates and an increase in the diurnal convective activity.
Low-mid level ridge will continue to our south and provide a southwest wind flow. Bermuda Ridge axis is forecast to remain over the southern third of the Florida peninsula.
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A trough will prevail across the interior Carolinas through tonight.
A drier westerly flow developing in response to an abnormally strong (for the season) low pressure system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest.
being fed by the low level jet/moisture transport. From late tonight into Sunday, the models are in good agreement that the upper level ridge will build east into Minnesota and Iowa tonight. In addition, it will be tapping into 2 to 3K most unstable CAPES which are located in the the upper level ridge.
1019 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region, bringing drier air and slightly cooler temperatures. NNW winds will be light as high pressure ridge nudges in from the northwest. Under weak cold air advection, lows will range from upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest across our northwest which will be closer to the high pressure center. Slightly warmer temperatures near 80 to lower 80s.
An upper trough over the Great Lakes had created northwest flow, which was bringing some slightly drier and more stable air down into Tn. Temperatures will be consistent with lows near 70 and highs within a few degrees of 90, except a little cooler Plateau. Early to mid week, those chances look like 20-40 percent with the influence of an upper level high limiting storms to mainly afternoon and early evening each day.
943 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will slide through our region tonight.
A strong cold front will sweep across Utah and southwest Wyoming Sunday through Sunday night, resulting in much colder temperatures for the first part of the upcoming week.
825 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys sinks further south into the lower Mississippi Valley with somewhat of a weak southwesterly flow aloft developing over the region on Sunday.
334 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Current synopsis shows a broad upper level trough passing across the northeastern United States and extending southward to the Appalachian Mountains while ridge is in place over the mid section of the country. At the surface the Bermuda ridge is extending westward across the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping moisture and dewpoints high across the CWA.
However, the break in precip will be only a few hours for southwest MT as the initial push of showers from the broad low pressure system we've been advertising for several days begins to arrive around 3 am and gradually spread northward by sunrise. Convective activity will taper off after 02-03Z but mid-level ceilings (7000-10000 ft) will continue overnight as broad, slow-moving low pressure system moves into WA/OR.
Think this will be the area of any nocturnal convection, but mid level ridging across most of the plains will keep any convective complex that develops well to N-NE of the area. Meanwhile, like yesterday expecting additional thunderstorm activity to move off the High Plains this evening, although given weak forcing suspect this activity will tend to diminish after sunset somewhere over western Kansas.
Temperatures are running slightly warmer compared to 24 hours ago across most of the region. Far northern California will be on the backside of the low with west-northwest flow aloft on Sunday as it moves east across the PacNW, so shower chances will likely be limited to areas further to the north and east.