Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON SATURDAY.
1225 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 SOME SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BUT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHED WIND. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE RIDGES. WITH LOCALLY FREEZING TEMPS IN ELEVATED VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
/ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED OUT ALONG 135W TO 140W AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY SE SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME CELLS COULD DRIFT W OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WANDERING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LOWLANDS E OF PUGET SOUND. MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE SUNSHINE FOR TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. MUCH COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WARMER LOWS WILL BE FOUND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 22/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE STATE.
956 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THIS MORNING. THE POSITION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING IT NE OF A KCTB-KGTF-KLWT LINE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS IT SW OF THAT LINE.
ONGOING ACTIVITY STREAMING ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH STRUNG OUT MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS LEFT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CONTINUING INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. MORNING SOUNDING SHOW PWATS STILL A RESPECTABLE 2" ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS S FLORIDA WHERE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS NOSED IN AND FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL AND RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO S FLORIDA KEEPING WINDS SSW 15-20KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THE INLET CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE PACNW AND THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
708 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL LIFT FOR SUNDAY.
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
917 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO CENTRAL SD. WITH A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 60S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE DEFINED WARM FRONT. QUESTIONS ABOUND ON WHERE THAT CONVECTION WILL TRACK GIVEN FLOW AND WARM FRONT LOCATION. ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY AND DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY IS LINGERING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK BEHIND SUNDAYS WAVE AS WELL. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CROSSING FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING RAIN THREATS BACK INTO AREA. COOLER AND DRIER FLOW WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THAT ACTIVITY BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. MORE SHRA/TS LIKELY TO FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
1001 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GREAT IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH SFC RIDGING OVER AR EXPECTED TO MIX DRIER AIR FARTHER SW INTO TX LATER TODAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER W TX INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GREAT BASIN WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA A COUPLE OF DEGREES EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 90S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE MOVES ON EAST AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO PERSIST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WELL DEFINED DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/CO AND A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN AT THE SURFACE. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL STILL ALLOW THE HIGH TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 89 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 59 86 58 / 0 0 10 10.
1014 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED PAST THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE TO KEEP FROM ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM OFF THE SERN LA COAST TO THE NERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED NERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR JUST AT THE OUTER EDGE OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST EVENING. NOT MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AND THE GRIDS WERE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
A VERY SHALLOW AND STEEP INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AT THE SURFACE TO THE LOWER 80S AT AROUND 1100 FEET ASL. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE PACNW AND THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 850MB (A BIT STRONGER THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS) EXTENDS WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY W-NW FLOW NOTED THANKS TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOREMOST IS A TROUGH SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST STATES AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS. AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ASSIST IN THE INHIBITION OF COVECTION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE TUTT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AND BROADENS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES UP ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER.
904 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM OFF THE SERN LA COAST TO THE NERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED NERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR JUST AT THE OUTER EDGE OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST EVENING. NOT MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
/TODAY/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY.
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL LIFT FOR SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST TOWARDS TEXAS. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL COAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA.
We will see one more very warm day today with highs back in the lower to middle 90s. Humidity values and dew points are not exceptionally high so the heat index this afternoon will be about a few degrees warmer than the actual air temperatures. The first of several upper level waves moves out across the Central Plains into the Missouri Ozarks region up and over the flat upper level ridge that will be located across the southwestern U.
407 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
640 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. POTENT SW TROUGH ROUNDING SRN EXTENSION OF UPR LOW OVR HUDSON BAY QUICKLY ON THE WAY OUT EARLY THIS AM. OTRWS TEMPS MUCH COOLER TDA COMPARED TO YDAS HOT TEMPS AS LL CAA WRAPS SWD ESP THIS AFTN IN TANDEM W/PASSAGE OF SECONDARY CDFNT.
AND TUESDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OUR BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE CLOUDS. ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.
611 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY.
Tuesday will be cooler with western Montana back to more seasonal temperatures.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
142 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 /ISSUED 306 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND NW TO WEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH ABNORMALLY DRY THERMAL PROFILES AND MOSTLY CAPPED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING NEWD FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING TO OFF THE FAR SE GA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s. Dewpoints, especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly comfortable by early August standards. For most of the region tomorrow should be very similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.
245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
511 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FLORIDA KEYS IN A DEEP COL REGION BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES TO THE EAST AND WEST. AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES AT THIS HOUR ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. FORECASTS -- THE PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE CHANGES OF INTEREST RELATE TO THE FORTIFICATION AND WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
AS A RESULT EXPECT CONSIDERABLY LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH MODELS HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH. MOSTLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SO THAT COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS.
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
433 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED. NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES EAST.
SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH TWO DISTINCT SPLITS.
400 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015 COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF ON 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS OF 345 AM CDT. THE SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PRESENTLY TO OUR WEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST SWINGS TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS.
618 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HEADING NORTH TO SOUTHERN WYOMING.
355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEP ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN ON TUESDAY. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER.
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID- LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA.
IT IS THIS FRONT WHICH PUSHED THRU LATE YDA RESULTING IN THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG WITH CLR SKIES. THIS COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRES AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT. THE UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER E TNGT WHILE RIDGING OUT WEST EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EWD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY. HIGH TEMEPRATURES APPROACHING 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. COINCIDING WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND A COLD FRONT IN THAT AREA PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.
521 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY THEN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT LIKELY WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN RELATIVELY CLOUDY START DUE TO STRATUS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.