Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Slightly cooler moderately gusty northerly flow early this evening behind the initial wind shift boundary. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late this evening, resulting in a wind shift to the north and northeast. Winds will begin to taper off after dark as cooler air filters into the CWA. During the early morning hours, a secondary surge of cooler air will move through the region causing lows to bottom out into the upper 40s across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and into the lower 50s in the South and Rolling Plains. Relatively milder temperatures are in store for Wednesday, as highs build into the upper 70s on the Caprock and into the lower 80s in the Rolling Plains due to the light, northerly winds.
Over the plains, surface cold front has been rather slow to push south and westward, with critical fire weather conditions limited to portions of northern/eastern El Paso County and the southeast plains east of La Junta. Winds then diminish overnight and into Wed morning, as high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft, leading to seasonably cool min temps at many locations. On Wed, much lighter winds all areas, as upper level ridge slides toward Colorado, with max temps running just slightly above late April averages.
Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain dry, thanks to high pressure slowly building in from the west.
857 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Clear skies across the region this evening as a cold front has come and gone today. With upper level ridging working in from the west tomorrow, expect the warming trend to continue resulting in lower relative humidity values tomorrow, but with less wind.
Otherwise, northerly winds behind the front will be ushering in drier and slightly cooler air, with near or just below seasonal normals expected WED night through THU night.
A high pressure system is situated in the Atlantic waters off the Carolina coast, bringing with it a stable airmass and dry conditions through Wednesday. Minimum temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with a couple pockets of upper 50s. An E to ESE breeze 10-15kt overnight, becoming SE on Wednesday as a high pressure builds over the west Atlantic.
Storms, and the attendant severe weather threat, are expected to exit the area by mid- morning Wednesday, but additional wrap-around light shower activity will be possible through the day while the upper trough axis remains west of the area. /DL/ Expect dry conditions to return Wednesday night in the wake of the cold front.
As of this writing the cold front was location near a C City to Seagraves line. Winds will shift between 03-08z at all terminals behind a cold front moving south through the Panhandle. Winds will slowly relax by the late-morning and afternoon as high pressure moves in from the northwest. /issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020/ An upper ridge centered over the West Coast will slide east today as a trough moves down from the Northern Plains to the Mississippi River Valley. This trough will move off to the east then flatten out by the weekend.
The upper trough will close off into a strong upper low and push from northwest MO to near STL by mid morning on Wednesday.
The main concern for this TAF period revolve around a line of thunderstorms along a fast approaching cold front tonight. The evening will set up with much of the area recovered and ready for action as the cold front dives our way. The front will shift the winds before daybreak, but lows in the low to mid 60s will become much cooler tomorrow night as highs keep to seasonal.
Farther west, the surface boundary is being influenced by what appears to be a secondary 850 low and a subtle 500mb short wave trough moving into northeastern Kansas. Expect gusty north winds to move in behind the cold front that is sweeping through the region tonight, with gusty winds from the north persisting through the day Wednesday.
A strong cold front currently bisects Oklahoma from northeast to southwest and a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along the boundary. Behind the cold front, breezy northerly winds and drier air will filter in. Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today, with highs in the 70s expected across the region.
Winds will shift between 03-08z at all terminals behind a cold front moving south through the Panhandle. Winds will slowly relax by the late-morning and afternoon as high pressure moves in from the northwest. /issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020/ An upper ridge centered over the West Coast will slide east today as a trough moves down from the Northern Plains to the Mississippi River Valley. This trough will move off to the east then flatten out by the weekend.
652 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 A cold front will trigger thunderstorms across central Illinois this evening. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1004mb low over southeast Minnesota with a cold front extending southwestward to near the Kansas City metro.
931 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020 A warm front lifting slowly northeast across the state tonight will be preceded and accompanied by some areas of light rain late this afternoon and tonight.
Wave over northern and central plains will continue to dive southeast and deepen the main trough over the mid Mississippi Valley overnight into Wednesday. An associated trough axis and frontal zone will push into the area early Wednesday.
A line of storms was rapidly developing along a cold front this afternoon in southeast Minnesota.
251 PM PDT Tue Apr 28 2020 High pressure will bring well above normal temperatures through Wednesday. High pressure weakens later this week, leading to increased winds and cooler conditions.
1026 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Currently - A robust high pressure system off the Carolina coast is responsible for moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The high pressure system to our northeast will migrate slowly eastward overnight. Robust high pressure system moving eastward further off of the Carolina coast will be responsible for moderate to fresh mostly east breezes on Keys waters.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form Wednesday morning into the afternoon as a cold front sweeps through and higher low level moisture is advected into the area, and a few of these storms could be strong east of I-65 in the afternoon prior to the front exiting.
As a ridge axis moves overhead tonight, east to southeast winds will increase and help keep temps from dropping that much early tomorrow morning.
CIGS look to drop back below MVFR thresholds over the next couple of hours as a surface cold front approaches the area.
The low looks to provide some wrap- around moisture this morning and scattered shower potential.
300 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 The overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper level ridge situated over the Intermountain West, a upper level trough over the eastern Great Plains, and a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A quieter weather pattern is in store today and tonight with high pressure in control.
This is keeping temperatures warmer across SW portions of the forecast area, but clear conditions are allow temperatures to fall more quickly than forecast across NE TN and SW VA. Upgraded current advisory to a warning for the most affected mountain wave zones across the higher elevations and foothills. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 50 64 47 70 / 90 60 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 51 61 47 66 / 90 80 60 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 49 61 46 66 / 90 80 70 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 49 61 45 60 / 70 90 70 60 20 TN.
358 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Briefly dry weather is expected this morning, but widespread rain will return with a cold front later this afternoon and overnight, with periodic rain chances for the remainder of the week. Central-Plains trough will shift eastward today, becoming more negatively tilted as it crosses the Ohio Valley.
947 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020 High pressure aloft will strengthen across the interior west through Wednesday.
253 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Synoptic Setup: Forecast Begins with hot high pressure over the Southwest with a ridge running north through Idaho, western Montana, and cresting in the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Farther west a large trough is developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Today through Tonight: Ridge will dominate generating clear to partly cloudy skies during the day and then mostly cloudy from a chinook arch overnight.
The cold-core upper low is currently over NW MO and will skirt the NE CWA today, promoting scattered showers, especially across the NE CWA closer to the upper low. Highs will be in the 60s, which will be made to feel cooler by the winds, cloud cover, and showers. Skies clear tonight as surface ridging moves in, with lows in the 40s.
A cold front is currently situated near the Mississippi River, and a line of convection that earlier prompted several warnings has weakened below severe criteria. There remains a marginal risk for areas along and near the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon once daytime heating takes effect and the cold front makes it that far east.
A cold front is currently across north central and western portions of Arkansas. It appears that another area of showers and thunderstorms may develop later today as the cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will be east of the region tonight with all of rain having exited the Mid-South.
Forecast regarding the approach of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms remains on track as a cold frontal boundary approaches from the north.
307 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Breezy and cooler conditions today with a slight chance of light showers across far NW AR on the backside of departing wave.
217 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Strong ridge building across the region will produce the warmest day so far this year. The high at Billings so far in 2020 has been 72 degrees, and we will eclipse that easily. Tonight will be mild as well with an increase in high clouds from the west as we begin to see height falls as a ridge breaking trough approaches from the west.
Further upstream, large scale ridging continues to build across the inter-mountain west.
Area radars show the cold front working its way SW thru the area. Cold front will be short-lived, w/return flow resuming after sunset. /issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020/ An upper ridge centered over the West Coast will slide east today as a trough moves down from the Northern Plains to the Mississippi River Valley. This trough will move off to the east then flatten out by the weekend.
334 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 An amplified upper level trough will dig into the Mississippi River Valley today, helping to propel a surface front southeast into eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula by late this evening.
347 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A cold front will continue moving east across the MS River early this morning, and should be east of the forecast area by late morning. Will probably need to contend with returning pops for showers/isolated thunderstorms the afternoon and evening as the deep upper level trof plows east into the area. With very cold air aloft expected to accompany the trof, would not be surprised to get small hail reports with any thunderstorms that mange to develop.
The H5 flow becomes northerly through the day as an upper ridge gradually moves eastward.
So showers are likely across the area beneath the amplifying trough today.
307 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A cold front continues to make progress to the south and east this morning pushing out of the Texas Panhandle into the northern part of our forecast area at the time of this forecast discussion. The good news is that high temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday as cold advection continues through the day to offset mostly sunny skies.
1122 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Clear skies across the region this evening as a cold front has come and gone today. With upper level ridging working in from the west tomorrow, expect the warming trend to continue resulting in lower relative humidity values tomorrow, but with less wind.
854 PM PDT Tue Apr 28 2020 High pressure will continue to strengthen through Wednesday, resulting in temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the mountains and deserts and 5 to 10 degrees above normal west of the mountains.
/Issued 110 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ /Through Tonight/ A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front currently extends from Grand Saline to Burleson to Coryell early this morning. Along and north of the I-20 corridor, storm chances have come to an end and skies will gradually clear as the cold front progresses southward. The passage of the cold front will usher in slightly cooler and drier air, and afternoon highs will be in the 70s, about 10-12 degrees cooler than Tuesday.
1112 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020 A warm front lifting slowly northeast across the state tonight will be preceded and accompanied by some areas of light rain late this afternoon and tonight.
/NEW/ /Through Tonight/ A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front currently extends from Grand Saline to Burleson to Coryell early this morning. Along and north of the I-20 corridor, storm chances have come to an end and skies will gradually clear as the cold front progresses southward. The passage of the cold front will usher in slightly cooler and drier air, and afternoon highs will be in the 70s, about 10-12 degrees cooler than Tuesday.
320 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A warm front lifting slowly northeast across the state tonight will be preceded and accompanied by some areas of light rain late this afternoon and tonight.
/issued 808 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2020/ Another quiet day across the region with high pressure centered now over the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure centered to the northeast will keep an east to southeast wind flow in place through tonight, with wind speeds reaching cautionary levels.
Relative humidity values will drop into the low teens while northerly surface winds will gust to around 30 mph.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form Wednesday morning into the afternoon as a cold front sweeps through and higher low level moisture is advected into the area, and a few of these storms could be strong east of I-65 in the afternoon prior to the front exiting. Another line of showers and thunderstorms along the main cold front is expected to redevelop later this morning.
(Today and tonight) Cold front that brought yesterday's severe weather is progressing well south of our area early this morning. In its wake, ridging will build into the area bringing with it plenty of sunshine and a much drier airmass.
350 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Today and tonight: Squall line continues to look impressive over LA, but, as expected, has struggled to the northeast into MS as the lower levels never moistened enough to support intense convection. Winds look to be gusty on the back side, as well, as a wake trough moves into the ArkLaMiss Delta. Ridging at the surface and aloft behind the exiting system will clear the skies from the west during the late afternoon and evening.
310 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Upper level trough churning across the MO River Valley early this morning, taking a southeast track for the rest of the day. Bits of upper level energy will continue to drop into the trough as it exits, and working with the lingering saturation, which churn out scattered to areas of showers today, mostly across western WI.
257 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Today will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, as a cold front continues its steady southwestward progression across the region, already nearing the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas as of 300am CDT. Highs today will top out in the 70s and 80s for most, with lower 90s possible through the Rio Grande Valley, 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Shaded temperatures a bit cooler tonight for what should be good radiational cooling.
347 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 As of 08z this morning, an upper trough was positioned over the Upper Plains with upper ridging over the western CONUS. On the backside of the low, a few raindrops are possible this morning in extreme northeast Kansas, although the main story for today will be the strong winds. Highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 60s.
Main issue will be a cold front that will push through the terminals shortly resulting in a window of increased wind speeds out of the north northwest.
Model consensus only heats up temps to the low to mid 70s - a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday was even with full sun. With ridge dominating Tonight and a clear sky, expect light and variable wind, with fairly homogeneous temperatures in the low 40s.
234 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 As of 2 AM, our CWA is dry as the cold front is through the eastern CWA and the occlusion rainfall has yet to get going beyond the shallow forcing seen near LaCrosse WI. The low pressure center is now located in southeast WI, and this is expected to strengthen and wrap southwestward some today, both increasing the pressure gradient over our area, and pulling southwest a area of showers, and possibly a fully developed deformation zone into our eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the CWA.
Cloud cover and fog will dissipate this morning as deep layer ridging begins to build over the region. Expect a quieter day today, with mostly sunny skies, much lighter winds, and highs from the lower 60s east to lower 70s west. The upper level ridge axis will shift into the Northern High Plains tonight as southerly return flow begins in the lower levels.
335 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 (Today and Tonight) A slightly delayed cold front extended from south of Midland to San Angelo to Coleman and Comanche at 230 AM. The cold front is still expected to push south through the rest of West Central Texas through daybreak, ending shower and thunderstorm chances for West Central Texas. Breezy, sunny and cooler behind the front today. Cooler tonight.
620 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A large upper low will drop into the area and become stationary into Thursday and bring periods of rain. The low should begin to move out late Thursday.
High pressure aloft will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions as it crosses the interior west today.
Upper level trough churning across the MO River Valley early this morning, taking a southeast track for the rest of the day. Bits of upper level energy will continue to drop into the trough as it exits, and working with the lingering saturation, which churn out scattered to areas of showers today, mostly across western WI. Thursday shaping to be a pretty nice day as high pressure builds in with sunshine returning, lighter winds and seasonable temps.
Upper level ridge will bring the hottest temperatures of the year to the CENCAL interior today. The cold front will push through early Thursday with temperatures dropping 5-8 degrees.
ERVIN As of 2 AM, our CWA is dry as the cold front is through the eastern CWA and the occlusion rainfall has yet to get going beyond the shallow forcing seen near LaCrosse WI. The low pressure center is now located in southeast WI, and this is expected to strengthen and wrap southwestward some today, both increasing the pressure gradient over our area, and pulling southwest a area of showers, and possibly a fully developed deformation zone into our eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the CWA.
Daily heat records are possible today and Thursday, with highs from the low eighties in the mountains to near one hundred degrees in the lower valleys. The strong ridge of high pressure over the Western US will dominate the weather for northern Arizona through Thursday.
645 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Strong low pressure system moves through the area this afternoon through Thursday.
That wave will shift east of the area for Thursday with upper ridging beginning to build eastward into the middle of the country. At the surface, a ridge will build over the area resulting in light winds.
These rains will be ending this morning north to south as sharply drier air filters into the region with an incoming cold front. Conditions will improve through the morning into the afternoon hours as high pressure settles into the northwest gulf region.
626 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 /12Z TAFS/ Strong northeast to northeast winds will affect KSJT, KSOA and KJCT through 15Z behind a cold front, with winds gusts of 35 KTS. /issued 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A slightly delayed cold front extended from south of Midland to San Angelo to Coleman and Comanche at 230 AM. The cold front is still expected to push south through the rest of West Central Texas through daybreak, ending shower and thunderstorm chances for West Central Texas. Breezy, sunny and cooler behind the front today. Cooler tonight.
Additionally some of the high res SPC HREF ensemble members show convection breaking out in the above mentioned areas.
Summary: Windy and cooler today with a warming trend by late week.
Sfc analysis shows the cold front has made it to the higher terrain SW. Cold front will be short-lived, w/return flow resuming after sunset. /issued 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ Today will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, as a cold front continues its steady southwestward progression across the region, already nearing the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas as of 300am CDT. Highs today will top out in the 70s and 80s for most, with lower 90s possible through the Rio Grande Valley, 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Forecast in terms of precipitation, remains on track with main event happening afternoon into the evening hours with a pre-frontal trough providing some development of showers on the plateau early this afternoon and west to east across the remainder of the forecast area into the evening hours. That warming will add some buoyancy to the environment ahead of the trough so convection still in the works with the best instability still appearing to be across Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina for later this afternoon.
925 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 An H100-H70 anticyclone centered off the Carolina Coast will generate a brisk 15KT mean flow thru the day. Anticipate winds reaching the 15-20KT range this aftn as the ridge axis drifts eastward, allowing a steeper sfc pgrad to work its way offshore.
Further upstream, large scale ridging continues to build across the inter-mountain west. Thermal ridge will overspread the northern plains today through Thursday. Today will be warmer and sunny, with many areas in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Conditions will improve through the morning into the afternoon hours as high pressure settles into the northwest gulf region.
The ridge that has brought us two wonderful days will begin to move east late this afternoon. A trough of low pressure with moist and unstable air will result in scattered showers and thunderstorm development this evening through the overnight hours across central Idaho and western Montana.
As of 08z this morning, an upper trough was positioned over the Upper Plains with upper ridging over the western CONUS. On the backside of the low, a few raindrops are possible this morning in extreme northeast Kansas, although the main story for today will be the strong winds. Highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 60s.
Low pressure center has reached the Wisconsin/Illinois border early this morning. Associated warm front extends into far Southwest Lower Michigan. with the cold front extending thru Northern Illinois. featuring a well-defined LEWP along the leading edge of the convective complex south of the warm front. Additional weaker convection continues to develop along and north of the warm front and is making it way northward into our CWA. Additional shower activity is impacting locations north of the low center over Northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. now impacting the Lower Mississippi Valley into Eastern Texas. Latest near term models do suggest a slight lull in the action this evening and some semblance of a dry slot tries to lift into Lower Michigan as the low occludes.