Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
720 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the area through Monday night with dry air and seasonably mild temperatures.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a weak trough over the Carolinas and east GA, with most of the large scale ascent being just east of our forecast area. Most of the lower troposphere will be dry, allowing low temperatures to reach the mid to upper 40s by dawn.
422 PM MST Sun Nov 13 2016 Weak transitional ridging sets up over the area for the short term period, keeping our weather warm and dry with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 67 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 61 34 60 / 10 10 0 0.
521 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather ahead of a mid week front.
1034 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 Currently - Weak east northeast flow prevails across the Florida Keys due to a weak inverted trough over and east of the Florida Peninsula. The weak flow will result in low temperatures broadly in the lower 70s with dew points around the upper 60s.
/Issued 645 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016/ As upper low now begins to shift east of the area. We still have 1018mb closed low off the GA coast which continues to spread moisture back inland but we also see that nose of high pressure has eased into the Atlanta metro allowing for moth lighter winds as well as less in the way of precipitation through the I85 corridor.
751 PM MST Sun Nov 13 2016 Mostly clear skies will prevail tonight and Monday as an upper level ridge rebuilds over the Central and Southern Rockies. This will also bring warmer temperatures for Monday with highs climbing into the 70s across northeast Colorado. Mostly clear skies overnight with cooler air behind the front will bring overnight lows into the 30s. For Monday a building upper level ridge and increasing subsidence will help to bring mostly clear skies during the morning hours with some increasing clouds by the afternoon with some moisture under the ridge from a trough to the north.
1042 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will remain to our south overnight and Monday then move away to the east Monday night.
1008 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 Low level pressure gradient is beginning to loosen as a weak moisture-starved cold front approaches from the NW. Broad expanse of upper level ridging/subsidence and dry air encompasses much of the eastern CONUS with a large area of the east enjoying abundant sunshine and (in some cases) well above normal temps. The main issue will be the lower and mid level clouds.
Mid level s/w trough axis is currently shifting east across Central Texas and aiding in mid level wind directions to become more westerly over S TX. Greater sunshine and warmer H85 temps will result in noticeably warmer afternoon temps across the region /around 80 in many locations/. Stronger s/w trough and parent upper level trough axis are prog to push across the CWA late Monday night resulting in westerly flow towards sunrise.
602 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 Low pressure will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts through tonight. The low will begin to lift northeast of the area Monday.
The southwesterly component to the low level jet should keep the bulk of the low clouds to the east/southeast of the Metroplex TAF sites but there should be at least a few hours of ceilings around 3000 FT between 12Z and 16Z. All low clouds will lift and scatter through the afternoon as drier air mixes through the boundary layer ahead of a cold front. The cold front should reach the Metroplex terminals just before sunset and Waco a few hours after that. An upper level low can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon over Central Oklahoma. As this low moves eastward into the Ohio River Valley Monday, a weak cold front will slide southeast into North and Central Texas.
601 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 The theme of cloudless cold fronts this November continues today, with a front at 3pm from southwest MN into the Arrowhead that is so starved from moisture, it isn't even able to produce cloud cover. Though this first cold front lacks much cold air or cloud cover, there is a second one dropping south across Canada this afternoon that bears a slightly different story.
Area lies between a departing ridge of high pressure, and a cold front approaching from the Plains. The southerly winds between these two features, as well as increasing high level cloudiness, should keep most areas warmer tonight than last night. Lows overnight should range from the lower 30s in southeast IL where clouds arrive later, to the lower 40s nw of the IL river. inducing large-scale upper ridging downstream over the Midwest.
911 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery indicates a short wave trough translating eastward through the region into srn MO/nrn AR this evening. A cold front will move through our region on Monday as the second system passes northeast of us. Light south wind and higher dewpoints tonight as compared to last night should ensure most areas stay warmer tonight.
1046 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will result in another night with clear skies and cool temperatures by morning.
Winds will diminish this evening with mostly clear skies, light winds, and a dry bl supporting a cooler night across the fa tonight.
Short waves will continue to top the current western CONUS/Rockies ridge lowering heights and dropping the jet farther into the Northern Plains.
613 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will remain to our south tonight and Monday then move away to the east Monday night.
936 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure weakens today.
Winds have been light and variable this afternoon, with 18z surface analysis depicting an area of high pressure over the region. These easterly upper level winds result from two upper lows flanking the region, one centered over northeastern Georgia and a western low over northeast Oklahoma.
The mid- and upper-level trough is pivoting across TX this afternoon with drier air shifting in from the north west per water vapor channels. Monday's temperatures will be slightly warmer than today as H925 temperatures will jump 1-3C higher with less mid- and high-level clouds cover.
Smoke continues to impact the mid state overnight, but conditions look to improve during the day tomorrow with an approaching trough. Winds should become more southwesterly in the low levels which will help the existing smoke move out and keep the rest out of the area. In regards to the overnight forecast, temperatures were lowered a bit as latest guidance is coming in a bit cooler. Temperatures at this time 24 hours ago are right around where they are now, and with similar conditions, temperatures in the mid 30s will be common with some areas seeing lows around freezing. Frost still looks likely for most of the mid state as well should temperatures stay above freezing.
830 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 An upper level low approaching from the west will cross the Carolinas overnight and Monday, while an area of low pressure moves up the Carolina coast.
Expect cooler, but still warmer than normal, temperatures on Monday in the wake of a passing cold front. Monday Night Through Sunday A broad upper level low pressure trough will strengthen and sharpen over the eastern half of the U.
646 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 A weak upper level ridge should keep most of the cloud cover to the north, at least until tomorrow. Tonight into Monday, a cold front draped from northeast to southwest across the northern Gulf will push slowly towards south Florida.
Terrain drainage and micro climates have allowed a few sporadic locations to cool below freezing the past several nights, and would expect that possibility tonight in the typically cooler spots. To begin the work week, the upper closed low over Georgia today will shift east and fill, becoming absorbed with long wave troughing over the eastern CONUS.
1004 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will result in another night with clear skies and cool temperatures by morning.
Mid level ridging will strengthen overhead through early week maintaining unseasonably warm/dry conditions locally. A progressive trough will bring a marked change to the area for the latter half of the week.
629 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 Dry, mild weather will continue through Monday, thanks to a large area of high pressure over the eastern states.
406 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Water vapor imagery indicates omega block pattern is departing as the trailing upper low pivots northeast just to the north of our region. This will allow for another cool night with high pressure still firmly in control as the surface. Lows will not be as chilly as last night due to winds veering more to the southeast as the center of the high pressure shifts farther east.
542 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 VFR conditions will persist as dry southwest flow around high pressure center to the south continues into Monday. A decrease in amplitude to the North American upper level blocking ridge is ongoing this afternoon. The last of the ridge axis is forecasted to roll east of the central Great Lakes this evening.
649 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 Low pressure will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts through tonight. The low will begin to lift northeast of the area Monday.
Near the surface this will bring a weak trough axis and cool advection into tomorrow. Lows should be in the lower to mid 30s with highs on Monday ranging from the mid 50s in parts of southwest Minnesota to the mid 60s in south central SD. A major system in the form of an approaching trough digging into a strong upper low will affect the northern plains late this week.
541 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Our amazing streak of late fall weather continues out the window currently, with nearly full sunshine beneath upper level ridging and temperatures responding nicely thanks to decent mixing to around 900mb up into the 50s and lower 60s.
1018 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the area through Monday night with dry air and seasonably mild temperatures.
930 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday, with fair and dry conditions.
Temperatures this afternoon have been 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday as the cold front from this morning is now moving south into southern Colorado and New Mexico.
Broad expanse of upper level ridging/subsidence and dry air encompasses much of the eastern CONUS with a large area of the east enjoying abundant sunshine and (in some cases) well above normal temps. The main issue will be the lower and mid level clouds.
Light south winds will persist tonight, and along with warmer temperatures aloft and a bit of passing high cloud cover, will help keep temperatures quite a bit warmer tonight compared to this morning's lows. A weak wave currently moving across the Central Plains will merge with a couple more disturbances over the Great Lakes tomorrow to carve out a decent trough across the eastern CONUS. A significant warming trend will commence through the latter portion of the workweek, as upper level ridging quickly pushes into the area.
A broad upper level trough extended from western Ontario, Canada, south-southwest across the upper MS river valley into northern MO. A weak upper low across southwest LA will shear out as it tracks northeast into southern MO with heavy rainfall possible from the TX coast, northeast into south central MO. Surface dewpoints should remain in the lower to mid 60s during the afternoon hours, thus the afternoon heat indicies will be near the the ambient temperatures. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 60s.
Abundant cloud cover should keep daytime heating on the low side today, but any pockets of sunshine that develop could be enough to generate additional showers and thunderstorms. /ISSUED / Upper low is in the process of stretching/shearing across Arkansas, La & east Texas. Given the high moisture levels persisting, suspect the threat of localized heavy rain totals might remain an issue ufn. 41 A messy forecast will continue for the TAFS today (and possibly into the first half of the upcoming week) as the upper low lingers across the region.
A ridge of high pressure will give way to a weak disturbance that will move into the two state area and may produce an isold tsra over some locations of central oregon or the john day highlands northeast into the blue/wallowa mtns this afternoon and evening. It will remain warm and dry today, and a weak trough will move over the area. This will cause breezy west to northwest winds, especially during the late afternoon and evening in the Eastern Columbia River Gorge and portions of the Lower Columbia Basin in Oregon.
Its a little cooler tonight across the Midsouth than we have been for the last several nights. Temperatures are in the low to middle 70s. we are still expecting slightly cooler than normal temperatures today through the upcoming work week. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the low to middle 70s. An upper low currently over Southern Arkansas will continue to pull moisture into the region as it slowly lifts north.
(Issued 248 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016) Under mostly clr skies across the cwa, temps were in the low 70s. The upper low is now centered over nrn LA while a cdfnt extended from ern TX thru sern MO and into the Great Lakes.
1040 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Dry northwest flow will continue across the region for one more day as high pressure remains centered over the Southwest. High pressure to the west begins to break down Monday as an area of low pressure aloft moves over Reno, NV late in the afternoon. The Desert SW ridge gets shifted east to near the Four Corners early this week as a weakening trough moves into the northern Great Basin.
Will therefore not stray far at all from the going forecast, but add just a slight hint of POPs in the south late this morning, keeping sct POPs for the aftn there into the Lower Susq. General pattern continues with the upper level ridge off the Southeast Coast and a trough over the Upper MS Valley. Excessive heat warning for the Lower Susq Valley to Harrisburg continues with a Heat Advisory for counties surrounding that up to Williamsburg and west out to Franklin County. Storms will be more isolated Monday with weak ridging over the area.
Although plenty of moisture will still be present, the ridging will also lead to warmer temperatures aloft which will limit instability and equilibrium heights.
1057 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2016 Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms remain possible today as a surface cold front shifts from the St. Skies will generally be partly sunny with high temperatures into the low to mid 80s in most valley locations.
/issued 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ A very nice day in store for Sunday as cooler and drier air continues to work south through West Texas.
/Issued 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to expand eastward over the Panhandles through much of the week. Later this week, an upper trough will deepen over the rockies and allow some short wave disturbances to move into the region. This, along with another cold front look to knock back weekend temperatures into the 80s once again. Model solutions differ for this time frame as the ECMWF pushes a cold front through the area very quickly.
616 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Main challenge will be subtle chance for isolated convection late this afternoon across the higher terrain of central Kansas near KRSL and KGBD. Some mid-level moistening has occurred just northwest of the forecast area early this morning which is progged to develop south into a portion of central and southwest Kansas today within a weak thermal trof most evident around 700 mb. The remnants from the low pressure and tropical rainfall which has drenched Louisiana the past couple days will migrate northward from the Arklatex region across the Ozarks later today and tonight before shearing to the east-northeast ahead of the emerging upper trof from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during Monday.
1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered near the ArkLaTex and this morning's upper air analyses suggest that the low is vertically stacked through 700 mb. Areas of rain to the north of the low have been scattered across nwrn AR and far ern OK since earlier this morning and more is poised to move into the area early this afternoon. To the west of the dense cloudiness, more insolation is expected but temperatures will still be about a category cooler than yesterday's high temperatures due to more mid/high cloudiness over the region today.
A cold front continues to develop to out west as Middle Tennessee remains locked into a persistent warm, humid air mass.
642 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 The cold front that slowly moved through the remainder of central and southeast Illinois yesterday has stalled across extreme southern Illinois. Additional northward adjustments are possible if model trends continue Clouds and precipitation today will keep temperatures cooler than normal once again, especially across southeast Illinois. Temperatures are at least temporarily cooler behind the boundary, with temperatures dropping into the upper 70s on Monday. But summer temps are not over yet as the ridge breaks down somewhat over the west.
1026 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 The upper level ridge to the east continues to be the main influence across the region. A stationary boundary exists back to the northwest stretching southward from the Ohio River Valley into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. 7 inches across the Southern Appalchians with the higher PW values back to the west near the stationary boundary. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 73 92 74 / 20 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 92 72 / 20 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 93 72 92 72 / 20 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 69 92 69 / 30 20 30 20.
943 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2016 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
/Issued 429 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Still sandwiched in between stationary upper low over LA and Bermuda high.
Inverted mid level trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move northwest today, injecting mid level moisture across the CWA which will aid in scattered convection this afternoon. Early morning water vapor and surface analysis depicts large scale ridging across the southeast CONUS. Broad southeast 1000-500MB flow was draped on the southside of the ridge which extends into southern AL/MS. Of note on water vapor imagery is an inverted mid level trough extending from the tip of the Yucatan peninsula northeast to the southern tip of Florida. PWATs will remain on the low side with ample drying in the 850 to 300MB layer. However, the inverted trough and mid level moisture arrives beginning late morning. Highs will reach the lower to perhaps mid 90s today.
/issued 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front has stalled across the Texas Hill Country.
859 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure remains off east coast, keeping front nearly stationary over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure remains entrenched to our east. while a cold front located near the Ohio and Indiana border is very slowly drifting westward this morning. as dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will still make it feel very sticky. Persistent ridge of high pressure keeping the more active weather to our west though still maintaining an oppressive heat/humidity combo over the CWA.
Central and Southwest Montana is underneath weak high pressure and the air mass will generally remain dry.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms to start the week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. A dry and warmer airmass aloft, as indicated by the 12Z Tucson upper-air sounding this morning, will limit the coverage of thunderstorms today. Isold SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening, mainly across the higher terrain E of KTUS.
Across Alabama, weak ridging remains with a decaying Atlantic high pressure system. As a result, rain chances today will be a tad lower than yesterday and more diurnally based along with slightly warmer temperatures.
This will send a weak cold front through the area. Today will be warmer than the past few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected as high pressure expands eastward and the region sits under zonal flow aloft. A weak cold front will also move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours shifting winds out of the west and northwest. Best chances for convection will be over the higher terrain.
Otherwise, we still have isolated showers and thunderstorms forecast for the higher terrain mainly in the north, although the cirrus clouds may inhibit heating enough to keep anything from forming. Weather pattern will be dominated by high pressure aloft for dry conditions in most areas (including the valleys). There will be enough moisture combined with daytime heating for isolated showers and thunderstorms (with gusty winds) over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening, mainly in the West Central Mountains.
For the remainder of the area, still expect a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon with the higher values north of I-10. Early morning water vapor and surface analysis depicts large scale ridging across the southeast CONUS. Broad southeast 1000-500MB flow was draped on the southside of the ridge which extends into southern AL/MS. Of note on water vapor imagery is an inverted mid level trough extending from the tip of the Yucatan peninsula northeast to the southern tip of Florida. PWATs will remain on the low side with ample drying in the 850 to 300MB layer. However, the inverted trough and mid level moisture arrives beginning late morning. Highs will reach the lower to perhaps mid 90s today.
1003 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front located near lake erie will continue to move slowly southeast through the day before stalling over southern Ohio.
The Northland was between an area of low pressure over northwest Ontario and a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Northern Plains early this morning. Lows will drop into the lower to mid fifties, with some pockets in the upper forties. Increasing warm air advection and an upper level trough will bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of northern Minnesota on Monday. Seasonably warm weather is expected for most of this week with more opportunities for showers and storms, but cooler weather will settle into the region late this week.
1103 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A pressure ridge will extend into the forecast area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. The ridge will weaken with troughing developing late in the week. This afternoon: High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to ridge into the forecast area from the east. Upper low remains across the northeastern Gulf. Overall, the support for thunderstorms appears weak and mainly isolated with ridging dominate. High pressure ridging into the area from the east at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate. Moisture will remain high but the ridging should help limit thunderstorm coverage. Followed the higher maximum temperature guidance because of the recent bias. Used the consensus for the low temperature guidance.
A mid level trough and an upper level low to our northwest this morning will move northwest towards the Florida Panhandle this evening.
A lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for much of the overnight period, until the aforementioned high pressure ridge acts as an inverted trough at the surface and shifts slightly northwest.