Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clearing skies and turning colder tonight with below freezing temperatures. Discussion: A cold front has moved to our east. Ridging begins to build back into the area with dry northwesterly flow in place. Highs will be much cooler with temps in the mid 40s to near 50, which is around 10 degrees below normal.
1253 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 Much cooler air will settle into the region today through the end of the workweek.
Under a clear sky, temperatures will fall rather quickly early this evening with freezing temperatures by morning across most of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Western north Texas had a few areas near freezing along with a few border counties of Oklahoma. As temperatures warm into the lower and mid 60s across western Oklahoma and northern Texas, elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop.
243 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 Cold front currently stretches from New England back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. CAA will allow for temps to drop to near freezing across NW portions of the CWA overnight.
130 PM MST Thu Nov 18 2021 While broad upper ridging overspreads the western CONUS, an upper trough approaches the east coast. However, no more than a wind shift and some clouds are expected with this trough.
1015 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A weak mid level short wave trough was located in the Florida Straits and moving northeast,producing a broad area of high clouds with scattered lower clouds to stream across the Florida peninsula. An additional short wave trough is located in the NW GOMEX which continues to move eastward. Increasing moisture today will lead to higher rain chances, with the highest rain chances occurring across the south.
An expansive shield of scattered snow showers persists through the rest of the afternoon, ending from west to east by early this evening as the axis of a subtle H500 trough passes through. This ridge passes through quickly between 06Z and 12Z with southerly winds increasing steadily in its wake Friday morning. This complicates the low temperature forecast with a notable spread in the NBM guidance in the favorably cold areas near the I-94 corridor, which is very close to the edge of the cloud shield. Given how upstream clouds in central Minnesota are steadily eroding, trended colder on lows in the Black River Falls area while keeping lows warmer to the north where the fetch of clouds looks to persist longer.
Expect cooler upper 50s across the lower plains area from Medicine Lodge to Hays. Temperatures Tonight and Friday night are likely to be in the low 30s most areas, with for slightly cooler upper 20s in the far western sections of the area.
1023 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A crossing cold front brings rain to the region today. An inch or so of accumulation will be possible in spots along the northern CWA border, with less than an inch along the ridges and virtually no accumulation elsewhere.
242 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Warmer temperatures with partly cloudy skies Friday.
Overnight lows will likely hover at or below freezing, especially in the more rural areas of west TN.
(Today and tonight) The center of the cooler and much drier air mass will pass west to east over Oklahoma today. Surface lee trough development early Friday will bring wind speeds up there by daybreak. In our Texas counties we will go with a freeze warning for Friday morning with temperatures expected near or slightly below freezing.
208 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 An area of low pressure will cross southern Canada later tonight into the morning hours on Friday. Ahead of the low pressure, gusty southerly winds should develop, mainly along and east of the James River valley. Weak ridging aloft will spread across the area on Friday, bringing above average temperatures with highs reaching the lower 40s, to the lower 50s. A weak trough approaching the CWA late Friday night could bring light pcpn into the far northwest corner to the CWA. The period opens with a subtle positively tilted longwave trough sliding across the Northern Plains.
Northwest flow behind the cold front will transition to more zonal flow this evening into Friday. Temperatures tonight will fall to freezing or slightly below in most areas. With the zonal flow in place on Friday warmer air moving in will allow for temperatures to climb into the 60s across most of the area. The lower RH values will be closer to the center of the low in the northwest, and therefore will have much lighter winds, while the stronger winds will be in the central to southeast which has higher RH values.
An upper-level trough, located over the Midwest, continues moving eastward, before pushing off the Eastern Seaboard on Friday. At the surface, an associated cold front is beginning to move through our southeast MS counties. Behind the front, northerly winds will increase and allow for a cooler airmass to filter in. Skies should clear out by daybreak as high pressure begins to build in. VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cooler than average temperatures but otherwise quiet weather highlights the short term forecast. Quiet weather continues on Friday as a weak upper ridge passes overhead, with highs ranging from near freezing in the Turtle Mountains region to around 50 in the southwest.
Additionally, westerly winds will be quite strong through this afternoon as central IL is located in a tight surface pressure gradient between a high over the southern Plains and low pressure well to the north near Hudson Bay. Current WV satellite imagery reveals a closed, upper-level low positioned over the Hudson Bay with a trough axis extending southwest into eastern Kansas. The significant slope of the trough axis into the colder air is indicative of a strong cold front, which pushed out of Illinois overnight. Winds will begin to crank later this morning as low-level lapse rates steepen ahead of the trough axis. Clouds will exit the region this evening as large scale subsidence works in behind the departing trough axis.
1247 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A cold front crosses the area tonight. High pressure builds in Friday night and remains through the weekend.
218 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 A cold front is currently moving through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, bringing with it some light rain showers and a push of much cooler air. A cool, dry air mass will settle into the Tennessee Valley on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. As a result, highs will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in most locations.
This cyclone will tighten the surface gradient over the region as it moves south into the northern Texas Panhandle and will bring breezy southwesterly winds to the CFA. With clear skies and a downslope component to surface winds, high temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer than today.
This will continue through Friday as the center of the high moves overhead.
229 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 At 20Z this afternoon, the forecast area finds itself within northwest flow aloft as the upper trough moves east of the MS River valley toward the northeast US. While we are still pretty dry in the low and mid levels, water vapor imagery shows moisture within the low-amplitude ridge across the Intermountain West, which will lead to increased cloud cover tomorrow. A weak trough is noted off the Pacific coast. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure is centered over KS and OK and has led to much lighter winds from the northwest compared to yesterday. This along with neutral temperature advection has kept temperatures on the cooler side in spite of sunny skies. This leads to slightly warmer temps and another windy day to end the work week.
1159 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: A mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR conditions prevail this morning as a cold front moves across the area. As high pressure builds in this afternoon into the evening hours, expect most TAF sites to become VFR and continue through the remainder of the period. /15/ Cold front moving quickly across the area this morning with a few mainly light rainshowers occuring along and behind it.
Some grid updates were made to the sky grids for the latest trends on satellite as cirrus track southeastward around the ridge located west of Arizona. Heights begin to rise slightly today across northern Arizona as a weak ridge begins to build in the wake of the departing trough. More zonal flow then ensues on Friday as the ridge degrades.
With pre-frontal conditions, temperatures should be a little warmer tomorrow, with highs getting into the 50s.
251 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 High pressure centered across the Central and Southern Plains has resulted in light winds, very dry air and clear conditions across the region today. As this area of high pressure moves over the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight and Friday a tightening pressure gradient will result leading to breezy southerly winds returning to the area from west to east.
200 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Currently, a sprawling 1000mb low pressure system is centered over the southern tip of Hudson Bay beneath broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a stout 1034mb high pressure system is centered over Oklahoma, altogether affording a tight pressure gradient across the Great Lakes. As the low pulls away this evening, winds will gradually decrease in magnitude clouds will clear. We'll have a great opportunity to view the nearly full lunar eclipse tonight, though overnight lows in the low to mid 20s will demand dressing in layers if planning to head outdoors for a quick glimpse. Tomorrow, the aforementioned high pressure system will drift eastward affording light and eventually southerly winds.
215 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Strong high pressure will move across the area through Friday with return flow setting up Friday night.
/issued 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ The last of the rain associated with the cold front is slowly pushing across northern MS this morning. /issued 325 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ Latest MSAS analysis places a surface cold front roughly from Camden, TN to Marianna, MS and back to Elaine, AR. The cold front and accompanying precipitation will continue east this morning with winds turning to the N/NW as the front passes. Expect cooler temperatures this afternoon, low to mid 50s, thanks to north winds. Dry and cool conditions continue on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the west.
Majority of the freezing temperatures were observed in the Northern Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico. Clear skies and light easterly winds will allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures near or below freezing across the northern portions of the CWA in the. The Midland/Odessa area will likely see temperatures hold in the mid 30s tonight and drop to freezing before sunrise tomorrow morning, like this morning.
1142 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A crossing cold front brings rain to the region today. An inch or so of accumulation will be possible in spots along the northern CWA border, with less than an inch along the ridges and virtually no accumulation elsewhere.
241 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 Satellite imagery showing skies clearing over the area as the sfc cold front exits eastward out of KY this afternoon. To the east, where clouds were slower to clear out, temperatures were in the low/mid 40s. Expecting lows in the mid/upper 20s with some protected valleys dropping into the low 20s. We end the week with plenty of sunshine but it will be chilly with highs in the low/mid 40s.
1155 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the western US through today. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs only rising into the 40s. However, some warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 8 C to 12 C range on Friday will help support warmer surface temperatures for the end of the week.
The low cigs at CSV will linger until mid afternoon when VFR conditions will return.
Isolated light showers will precede the upper low today but little will reach the surface do to the initially dry air mass. Generally VFR conditions as an upper ridge builds into the region.
1122 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 (Today and tonight) The center of the cooler and much drier air mass will pass west to east over Oklahoma today. Surface lee trough development early Friday will bring wind speeds up there by daybreak. In our Texas counties we will go with a freeze warning for Friday morning with temperatures expected near or slightly below freezing.
Expect cooler upper 50s across the lower plains area from Medicine Lodge to Hays. Temperatures Tonight and Friday night are likely to be in the low 30s most areas, with slightly cooler upper 20s in the far western sections of the area.
cold front will move east of the area this afternoon, with a few remnant showers possible in the east early this evening. High pressure will build in overnight with cold temperatures and breezy northerly winds. Lows tonight will range from near freezing across the Delta to the low 40s in the Pine Belt Region. High pressure ridging will continue to prevail across the region on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Largely zonal flow aloft is expected with perhaps a weak/dry short wave trough of little consequence late Friday night.
540 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Strong high pressure will move across the area through Friday with return flow setting up Friday night.
Warmer temperatures with partly cloudy skies Friday.
506 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 (Thru Tonight) Skies have cleared and high pressure continues to build into the region behind yesterday's cold front. Overall, good conditions for radiational cooling and widespread sub-freezing temps by morning.
An area of low pressure will cross southern Canada later tonight into the morning hours on Friday. Ahead of the low pressure, gusty southerly winds should develop, mainly along and east of the James River valley. Weak ridging aloft will spread across the area on Friday, bringing above average temperatures with highs reaching the lower 40s, to the lower 50s. A weak trough approaching the CWA late Friday night could bring light pcpn into the far northwest corner to the CWA. The period opens with a subtle positively tilted longwave trough sliding across the Northern Plains.
Zonal flow is over the area with a trough off the Pacific coast of OR/WA. Moisture is moving into our area ahead of this trough in zonal flow. A trace of snow is possible for all the area outside of the Eastern Magic Valley and the Lower Snake plain early tomorrow morning.
541 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 (This evening through Friday) The main concern in the short term forecast is the potential for near to below freezing temperatures across much of West Central Texas overnight. Dewpoints are forecast to generally remain in the teens, although they could creep back up into the lower 20s after midnight, mainly across our southern counties. If skies become mostly clear, freezing temperatures could be reached across even our southern counties, but if cloud cover lingers, it could keep overnight lows just above freezing. Farther north, a Freeze Warning remains in effect from midnight through 8 AM, where confidence is higher that freezing temperatures will be reached.
349 PM MST Thu Nov 18 2021 While broad upper ridging overspreads the western CONUS, an upper trough approaches the east coast. However, no more than a wind shift and some clouds are expected with this trough.
with a surge of warmer air advecting into the area. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday afternoon, however, the lowest humidity (southwest Neb.
A cold front is currently moving through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, bringing with it some light rain showers and a push of much cooler air. A cool, dry air mass will settle into the Tennessee Valley on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. As a result, highs will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in most locations.
Some light frost remains possible in the north overnight, but overall temperatures should stay above freezing for most locations. cold front will move east of the area this afternoon, with a few remnant showers possible in the east early this evening. High pressure will build in overnight with cold temperatures and breezy northerly winds. Lows tonight will range from near freezing across the Delta to the low 40s in the Pine Belt Region. High pressure ridging will continue to prevail across the region on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.
The notable drop into the low/mid 20s areawide introduces the chance for steam fog to form over the relatively- warm rivers. While slightly warmer weather is expected tomorrow thanks to a southerly wind direction, temperatures will still top out around normal for mid-November (if not a shade cooler). No precipitation is expected with high pressure in control.
A cold front has passed through the area, and satellite shows rapid clearing behind it moving through the TN Valley. Clearing skies and turning colder tonight with below freezing temperatures. Discussion: A cold front has moved to our east. Ridging begins to build back into the area with dry northwesterly flow in place. Highs will be much cooler with temps in the mid 40s to near 50, which is around 10 degrees below normal.
Additionally, cloudy skies will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday and very muggy. Zonal flow aloft continues through the weekend which will slow down the approaching cold front.
Satellite imagery showing skies clearing over the area as the sfc cold front exits eastward out of KY this afternoon. To the east, where clouds were slower to clear out, temperatures were in the low/mid 40s. Expecting lows in the mid/upper 20s with some protected valleys dropping into the low 20s. We end the week with plenty of sunshine but it will be chilly with highs in the low/mid 40s.
The shower activity will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this evening, then a weak cold front pushes through the region over night causing widespread steady precipitation. The higher terrain should receive 3 to 7 inches of snow, including Lookout and Lolo passes, by Friday evening. Numerous winter weather advisories have been issued for the higher terrain along the Montana/Idaho border and along the Continental Divide around Glacier National Park. After the passage of the second front, there appears to be a short period of time where the precipitation could transition to freezing drizzle.
A weak upper-level trough will move through the area Friday night.
Strong low pressure was located near James Bay and was spreading an overcast deck of stratus as far south as almost to Hwy 34. Meanwhile, high pressure was situated in northeast OK and pretty decent gradient between these systems was causing northwest winds gusting to around 35 mph. With h8 temps -12C this is a cold day when combined with the clouds, wind and mid afternoon temperatures only in the lower to mid 30s. Tonight: As the strong cyclone continues to track northeast, the high pressure ridge will be building into the dvn forecast area. This will allow for a cold night with lows bottoming out in the lower 20s with some traditional cold spots perhaps in the upper teens! Friday: Return southerly flow around the departing high will bring warmer temperatures to the area.
Expect early morning temperatures to be in the mid 20s to low 30s, with most areas falling below freezing. A concern with this cooler trend is the patchy fog that has been reported across the area this evening. Drier air will gradually filter in overnight with dew points in the low to mid 20s, but the potential for patchy fog in sheltered valleys and large open fields will persist. As temperatures drop below freezing around 3 AM, this may transition to patchy freezing fog. A cool, dry air mass will settle into the Tennessee Valley on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. As a result, highs will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in most locations.
As high pressure continues to push into the state winds will also become lighter. Largely zonal flow aloft is expected with perhaps a weak/dry short wave trough of little consequence late Friday night.
Mild conditions continue with lows in the low to mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies. An inverted trough over the Florida peninsula at the surface early Friday morning will move eastward just off the coast of east central Florida through the day.
Temps have fallen into the low to mid 20s and seem on track to bottom out mostly in the teens overnight.
Through the short term, the cold front over the Mississippi River Valley will slide east tonight, then stall out over Florida on Friday. Meanwhile, the weak low pressure system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Keys will slide southeast into the Yucatan and Cuba, which should dry things out.
447 PM PST Thu Nov 18 2021 Updated air quality section Patchy dense fog is possible tonight into Friday morning in the Central Valley; however, a trough of low pressure will pass through the northern half of the Golden State by Friday afternoon and evening. All precipitation associated with this trough of low pressure will remain north of Central California. The persistent upper-level ridge pattern is giving way to a more zonal flow and will allow an upper-level trough with a weakening cold front to pass over Central California on Friday. This cold front will provide little changes in terms of sensible weather, except for some increased mid-level and high cloud cover. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge pattern will return over the Southwest U.
421 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A cold front which passed through eastern KY earlier today is about to make its way east of the central and southern Appalachians. Some high clouds will linger into this evening, but even they will dry up as the axis of the system's supporting upper trough departs to the east. While it may not prevent some ridge/valley differences from developing, our largest differences should be on Friday night. The coldest locations will likely drop to around 20 for some of the lowest readings so far this cold season. In the upper levels, a trough will be located over the northern Rockies while weak ridging starts to set up over the eastern portion of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will dominate across much of the east coast with a center located to our east.
At 20Z this afternoon, the forecast area finds itself within northwest flow aloft as the upper trough moves east of the MS River valley toward the northeast US. While we are still pretty dry in the low and mid levels, water vapor imagery shows moisture within the low-amplitude ridge across the Intermountain West, which will lead to increased cloud cover tomorrow. A weak trough is noted off the Pacific coast. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure is centered over KS and OK and has led to much lighter winds from the northwest compared to yesterday. This along with neutral temperature advection has kept temperatures on the cooler side in spite of sunny skies. This leads to slightly warmer temps and another windy day to end the work week.
541 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 High pressure centered across the Central and Southern Plains has resulted in light winds, very dry air and clear conditions across the region today. As this area of high pressure moves over the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight and Friday a tightening pressure gradient will result leading to breezy southerly winds returning to the area from west to east.
A swath of rain and clouds persisted over the local waters and islands and produced moderate to heavy rainfall that caused flooding across the Lower, Middle, and Upper Keys. KKEY 00z depicts a moist profile but, some dry air has worked into the area at 32000 ft; this coincides with the current radar trends, which exhibit a few stratiform showers near the Lower Keys. As the convection moves slowly east tonight, it could affect the Lower and Middle Keys and produce light rainfall amounts. High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will shift eastward tonight as a cold front nears Florida. This front will stall over Florida tomorrow, with high pressure bridging the frontal boundary and leading to freshening northeasterly breezes Friday night.