Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak "inside slider" trough will dive into the Great Basin at the end of this week, but like most troughs that take this trajectory, they bring little more than mid and high clouds into the central California interior along with a brief period of gusty winds along the Sierra crest. Otherwise, for much of the next 7 days, our pattern will be dominated by an upper level ridge that's anchored off the southern California coast. Although this high pressure ridge will go through various stages of amplification between now and Martin Luther King, Jr day, the bottom line is that it will keep skies generally clear (except for occasional cirrus) over our CWA and be responsible for Springlike high temperatures during the next several days, especially outside of the San Joaquin Valley.
Expecting mostly sunny skies with a few high clouds at times and temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday.
At the surface, the low over the Gulf continues to move east making its way across Florida into the Atlantic by the end of the period. Highs today are expected to range from the low to mid 40s along and northwest of I- 65 with mid 40s to lower 50s to the southeast.
Temperatures will be a little warmer Tuesday with highs in the 50s.
An upper level low will develop over southwest Texas overnight and move across southern portions of the area tomorrow. This system will keep some cloud cover over the area into the morning hours, but temperatures will still be very cold tonight, with lows in the lower to middle 20s. Temperatures will be a little warmer, with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Light snow is expected to continue through at least mid- day then begin tapering off from west to east as the upper low tracks east. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 30s. Some of the high resolution guidance still sets up a narrow band of snow midday near or just South of the Memphis Metro as the upper low moves over the area. Temperatures should be below freezing by 9-10pm with lows in the mid 20s across most of the area.
Thanks to cloud cover and at least some wetbulbing we've seen temperatures stay below freezing for much of Middle Tennessee, with only a few pockets just above freezing according to the latest observations. Conditions dry out and skies clear from the west after midnight allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s.
Any snowfall accumulations are expected to be less than a half an inch with possibly an inch across the higher terrain of the northern Adirondacks.
102 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 A positively tilted trough across the southern tier of states is providing little support for a very weak front located in the Central Gulf this morning. Florida is in the mostly zonal flow on the south side of the trough. A piece of energy is breaking off of the longwave trough and lifting out to the east northeast which will push the front slowly this way. The short wave weakens as it lifts out so the front will be almost a non event with little more than a wind shift and ever so slightly cooler temperatures.
Will be looking into the threat of freezing rain for some lower valley locations for tomorrow, but no updates are expected at this time. Freezing rain possible near BKE BNO and ONO Tuesday morning.
1017 AM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 The first half of the week will feature warmer than average temperatures.
349 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Low pressure will pass eastward to our south tonight and Tuesday.
However, temperatures are a bit warmer around 36-39 degrees in Jackson, DeKalb and Marshall counties. Additionally, expect warmer air will continue to advect into the area with easterly winds at the surface. High temperatures should rise to above freezing for the entire forecast area. For now, will forgo a winter weather advisory based on the limited spatial and temporal scale of the hazard but do expect icy bridges and overpasses will continue to be an issue through at least noon. The prob for black ice on some roads, bridges and overpasses then becomes an issue later this evening, as temps drop to the freezing mark, and then continue to fall into the mid/upper 20s by early Tue. Cloud cover will then begin to diminish going into Tue, as high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains builds ewd into the region.
1127 AM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Considerable warming and moistening has occurred in the lowest few thousand feet of the KEY sounding over the past 24 hours. Compared with 24 hours ago, Key West is 12 degrees warmer, and the dewpoint is 13 degrees moister. Looking upstream, a well-defined cold front is currently making slow headway across the Central Gulf.
The first overhead this afternoon is associated with the weak trough stretching from northern MN through the eastern Dakotas. Highs were in the mid 30s to mid 40s today, and should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer tomorrow, or around 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year. Will continue to go on the higher end of guidance for high temperatures.
230 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will cross Florida tonight and move off the Atlantic coast on Tuesday, bringing rain to much of the forecast area tonight.
Partly cloudy (mostly high clouds) anticipated into this evening but then more stratus is expected to fill in behind the passing aforementioned troughs from northwest to southeast by Tuesday morning.
Main issue would be the potential for isolated freezing fog issues laying down ice on road surfaces. The eastern Magic Valley will see warming temperatures during the overnight on Tue night, and should stay above freezing. As long as that happens, the risk of freezing rain due to the elevated warm layer is very low. But if the temperatures there cool to below freezing, the risk spikes upward. This large temperature difference is indicative of a strong cold front that comes in from the north and northwest. This will bring 20 to 30 mph wind with stronger gusts during the day Wed, mainly in the Snake River plain and along the ridges of the central Idaho mountains.
The area sits in benign flow aloft, as a ridge axis slowly builds into the Plains. This ridge, coupled with persistent downsloping flow at H85 will lead to a warm up over the next couple days.
An enhanced area of snowfall developed this morning across much of east Tennessee into southwest Virginia as temperatures were at or below freezing. Dew points across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia are still below freezing in places so warming maybe even slower there than the plateau and central east Tennessee. Ceilings have dropped to IFR at all sites early this afternoon Moisture continues to advect northeast as upper low approaches from the west.
An enhanced area of snowfall developed this morning across much of east Tennessee into southwest Virginia as temperatures were at or below freezing. Dew points across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia are still below freezing in places so warming maybe even slower there than the plateau and central east Tennessee. Moisture continues to advect northward as an upper low approaches from the west.
Holes are present as well around Grand Forks and movement of the low clouds has not been quickly south. The air mas should be warm enough that if there was more sunshine guidance many locations would be above freezing. On Tuesday, further moderation of the air mass with westerly flow, along with more potential for sunshine should allow for highs above freezing across our CWA. The pattern of ridging in the west and troughing in the east continues across the United States.
Temperatures are slowly warming over the plains, and should make it to the low to mid 40s. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures will be the theme today. Tuesday will be one more clear warm day as the upper ridge remains stretched across the state.
In areas where the light snow began early temperatures dropped to freezing and below and accumulations reached around an inch or more. The upper low causing the precipitation was now approaching the Memphis area. As the upper low moves east and then moves overhead and then shifts into southwest Virginia by 12Z Tuesday the precipitation will end.
247 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Rain is continuing with some mixed precip in the higher elevations of the NE GA mountains. The parent low pressure center is currently just south of Pensacola, FL and is still expected to push E/NE tonight. It will be positioned just off the NC coast by daybreak Tuesday morning allowing a weak high pressure ridge to build in from the west. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s with some upper 50s across the southern parts of the CWA. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s with cooler temperatures possible in the higher elevations. High pressure keeps a lid on the active weather for the most part.
153 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 Light snows accompany a Low pressure system drifting east toward/across the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, and should for the most part, stay to our south.
If we get more confident on the BR and with overnight lows expected to drop below freezing at these site, we might need to consider adding some freezing fog.
345 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Impactful weather: Patchy mainly nuisance light snow/freezing drizzle mix into this evening? Somewhat colder air advecting into the region will lead to slightly increased over lake instability into tonight. Have had a couple of reports of light patchy freezing drizzle as well as some very light snow so far this afternoon and this will likely continue into this evening. The CMC has a bit of a lag, and shows a trough moving through the Upper Great lakes and producing light snow.
209 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 Current satellite is showing some clearing in the low clouds in portions of the CWA, however abundant surface moisture is allowing even very weak surface heating to regenerate cloud cover and is keeping much of the area in broken to overcast skies. This has kept temperatures several degrees below forecast with several areas not even reaching freezing yet though any areas that manage to break out may quickly warm a few degrees, especially if there is no cloud cover. Model soundings indicate the low clouds should dissipate after 00Z and combined with light winds and abundant low level moisture should be conducive for patchy freezing fog to develop.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler tonight with at least some period of clear or mostly clear skies.
Ceilings have dropped to IFR at all sites early this afternoon Moisture continues to advect northeast as upper low approaches from the west.
High pressure will remain in place for most of the week. Under the developing ridge, temperatures at 700 mb will increase by few degrees C between today and tomorrow across northern Utah and by almost 5 degrees C across southern Utah.
223 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeasterly across Florida late today and off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.
/issued 209 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/ Current satellite is showing some clearing in the low clouds in portions of the CWA, however abundant surface moisture is allowing even very weak surface heating to regenerate cloud cover and is keeping much of the area in broken to overcast skies. This has kept temperatures several degrees below forecast with several areas not even reaching freezing yet though any areas that manage to break out may quickly warm a few degrees, especially if there is no cloud cover. Model soundings indicate the low clouds should dissipate after 00Z and combined with light winds and abundant low level moisture should be conducive for patchy freezing fog to develop.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to range from the low teens across west central Kansas to mid 20s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the low to mid 50s.
The main forecast concern is the potential for prolonged strong winds Thu into Fri associated with an intense upper low forecast to dig from N Rockies Wed night into the Mid MS Valley by Thu PM. Appears the initial cold front and surge of strong winds will arrive Wed night into Thu AM. Pcpn continues to look scant with this system, but will obviously need to monitor the location of stalled upper low and associated wrap- around pcpn closely, given how strong the winds will be. Don't want to draw direct comparisons to the system we had Dec 23rd, though, as temps look to be several deg warmer. Have continued trend of going on warmer side of guidance for Tue and Wed, though didn't go straight CONSMOS just yet for Wed as there could be incr high clds.
Low pressure centered near Tallahassee at this hour will continue to trek across N FL overnight with a cold front following closely behind. A trailing front along the low will cross through the local area early Tue as the weakening system exits to the Atlantic. Anticipate overcast skies all day, which will put a halt on the recent warming trend, with highs in the low to mid 70s, depending on the exact timing of the weak frontal passage.
At the surface, low pressure over the Gulf continues to move east making its way across Florida and into the Atlantic by the end of the period. Clouds come impact overnight lows making them slightly warmer.
/issued 329 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/ An upper level low is currently crossing the MS River with snow occurring east of the river. We could still see some flurries near the TN River as the upper low exits the area later this evening. However, the majority of the Mid- South has remained mostly cloudy keeping temperatures near freezing. Temperatures are expected to dip down into the low to mid-20s tonight as skies begin to clear behind the exiting low. It is certainly possible that snow will freeze on roadways or bridges (primarily across portions of North Mississippi) late tonight impacting travel Tuesday morning. A deepening trough will dive into the Central CONUS bringing us another shot of colder air by the weekend.
Any snow accumulations with this feature should be very light ranging from a trace to couple tenths Surface chart shows high pressure to our west and low pressure to our south across the Deep South. An inverted trough stretches northward from the low centered over the Gulf Coast near PNS. Aloft, a closed low is filling as it lifts northeast and opens up into a trough over our region by Tuesday morning. Thinking right now is that main concern could be related more to precipitation melting on the roads before refreezing as temperatures drop through the overnight period. The extended starts off benign, with somewhat dampened flow aloft, while high pressure centered to our southwest keeps conditions clear and dry.
Vertz High pressure ridging will remain over the forecast area through Tuesday. Some high level clouds will move along the periphery of the ridge resulting in partly cloudy skies.
West Coast ridging will bring dry conditions to the region this week.
Light snows accompany a Low pressure system drifting east toward/across the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, and should for the most part, stay to our south.
19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over AR with troughing extending west over the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was weakening over the southern plains while a trough of low pressure extended from the western Great Lakes into the central high plains.
740 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Surface chart shows high pressure to our west and low pressure to our south across the Deep South. An inverted trough stretches northward from the low centered over the Gulf Coast near PNS. Aloft, a closed low is filling as it lifts northeast and opens up into a trough over our region by Tuesday morning. Thinking right now is that main concern could be related more to precipitation melting on the roads before refreezing as temperatures drop through the overnight period. The extended starts off benign, with somewhat dampened flow aloft, while high pressure centered to our southwest keeps conditions clear and dry.
714 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Regional surface observations and water vapor satellite imagery are showing the approaching cold front currently sliding through the Florida Panhandle, on track to push through the forecast area overnight and into Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to push into the Tampa Bay area terminals beginning around 08-12z in the wake of the incoming dry cold front, with reduced ceilings expanding into southwest Florida area terminals between 12-15z. The low ceilings are forecast to lift out from north to south during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will turn to the northwest and increase slightly tonight behind an incoming cold front, with wind speeds approaching exercise caution levels offshore. Conditions will subside Tuesday through late in the week as high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico from the west.
614 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure extended from Texas to the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. The high will build toward our region as weak low pressure moves off the Southeast coast on Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall back below freezing in Central LA shortly after sunset. Hi-res guidance depicts teens in pockets, however with dewpoints still in the low 30s temperatures are not likely to fall as quickly as depicted. Another interesting phenomenon that is possible tonight is freezing fog and rime ice. Guidance indicates fog is possible from the East TX Lakes through Cen LA and with temps below freezing for several hours light riming may occur. High pressure will settle in through mid week with clearing expected.
420 PM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR prevails with skc and terrain drive drainage winds, except where IFR/LIFR is expected to return to the lower Pecos River Valley and the Caprock. Patchy freezing fog is possible across eastern portions of the state late tonight into Tuesday morning and may create hazardous driving conditions.
450 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Surface chart shows high pressure to our west and low pressure to our south across the Deep South. An inverted trough stretches northward from the low centered over the Gulf Coast near PNS. Aloft, a closed low is filling as it lifts northeast and opens up into a trough over our region by Tuesday morning. Thinking right now is that main concern could be related more to precipitation melting on the roads before refreezing as temperatures drop through the overnight period.
We are in the wake of a passing trough and warmer air with the upstream ridge pushing in will not get here til late tomorrow. Expect the mid elevations to be somewhat warmer come Tuesday night as the warmer air aloft begins to spread across the region.
746 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Weak high pressure will keep generally benign weather in place tonight across SoFlo. Light and variable winds will result in no significant wind chill factor, with overnight lows remaining in the upper 50s for interior and northern areas, and in the low-mid 60s elsewhere.
204 PM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 Current surface map places weak trof across central South Dakota. Flat upper level ridge shifts across the Northern Plains Tuesday as strong trof dives through the Pacific Northwest.
507 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Surface chart shows high pressure to our west and low pressure to our south across the Deep South. An inverted trough stretches northward from the low centered over the Gulf Coast near PNS. Aloft, a closed low is filling as it lifts northeast and opens up into a trough over our region by Tuesday morning. Thinking right now is that main concern could be related more to precipitation melting on the roads before refreezing as temperatures drop through the overnight period. The extended starts off benign, with somewhat dampened flow aloft, while high pressure centered to our southwest keeps conditions clear and dry.
Dry with considerably warmer temperatures starting Tuesday through the remainder of the week.
Rain is continuing with some mixed precip in the higher elevations of the NE GA mountains. The parent low pressure center is currently just south of Pensacola, FL and is still expected to push E/NE tonight. It will be positioned just off the NC coast by daybreak Tuesday morning allowing a weak high pressure ridge to build in from the west. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s with some upper 50s across the southern parts of the CWA. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s with cooler temperatures possible in the higher elevations. High pressure keeps a lid on the active weather for the most part.
329 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 An upper level low is currently crossing the MS River with snow occurring east of the river. We could still see some flurries near the TN River as the upper low exits the area later this evening. However, the majority of the Mid- South has remained mostly cloudy keeping temperatures near freezing. Temperatures are expected to dip down into the low to mid-20s tonight as skies begin to clear behind the exiting low. It is certainly possible that snow will freeze on roadways or bridges (primarily across portions of North Mississippi) late tonight impacting travel Tuesday morning. A deepening trough will dive into the Central CONUS bringing us another shot of colder air by the weekend.
451 PM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 Current surface map places weak trof across central South Dakota. Flat upper level ridge shifts across the Northern Plains Tuesday as strong trof dives through the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will remain in place for most of the week. The thermal ridge at 700mb continues to develop Tuesday with the 700mb temperatures climbing about 2-3 degrees C across central and northern Utah and close to 5 degrees C over the south. This will be realized in the mountains above about 7500-8000 ft which will be about 5-9 degrees F warmer than today (5 in the north and 9 in the south).
632 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Impactful weather: Patchy mainly nuisance light snow/freezing drizzle mix into this evening? Somewhat colder air advecting into the region will lead to slightly increased over lake instability into tonight. Have had a couple of reports of light patchy freezing drizzle as well as some very light snow so far this afternoon and this will likely continue into this evening. The CMC has a bit of a lag, and shows a trough moving through the Upper Great lakes and producing light snow.
particularly under a ridge. Lows will fall into the low-mid 20s, especially for areas with lingering snow on the ground, with upper 20s elsewhere. In addition, some areas of patchy freezing fog can't fully be ruled out. mid-upper 40s in NW to near 50 degrees to the SE) as we have some thermal troughing going on over the N & E portions.
930 PM EST Mon Jan 11 2021 Low pressure will pass eastward to our south tonight and Tuesday.
A mid to upper level low forming near Far West Texas this evening will move into the Texas Big Bend tonight and into the Hill country on Tuesday. With mostly cloudy skies and high pressure over the area, leaned toward the cooler MAV guidance for highs Tuesday. The upper low will be lifting to the northeast into east Texas Tuesday night.
242 PM MST Mon Jan 11 2021 High pressure ridging will remain over the forecast area through Tuesday. Some high level clouds will move along the periphery of the ridge resulting in partly cloudy skies.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ High clouds associated with an upper low approaching from the southwest will increase across the region overnight through Tuesday. Therefore, lows are still expected to fall below freezing, ranging from the middle 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy freezing fog continues to develop late this evening, mainly south of I-20 and east of I-35. Therefore, we will keep the current Freezing Fog Advisory going through 9 AM Tuesday. Tuesday should be a slightly warmer day than Monday with a light southwesterly wind and some sun. The upper low will move across South Texas Tuesday night, pushing most of the clouds into the southeastern states. Despite some of the high-resolution models trying to develop some light drizzle/rain across parts of Central TX Tuesday night, there will be very little moisture available in the environment.