Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A slow moving upper level low pressure will continue to generate showers/storms over far southeast Kansas today. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level trough over the western states with embedded short wave approaching southern California. A cold front will push southward into this unstable airmass with thunderstorms becoming more numerous by Tuesday night.
Radar imagery from early this morning shows a complex of thunderstorms moving east of the Highway 77 corridor, with scattered showers and storms moving into portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the lower 80s and lows Monday night in the 50s.
Showers and a few thunderstorms under the lingering upper low will be the main issue for the period. Upper low is seen on water vapor loop and radar rotating over the far northern Red River Valley currently. The south should see some sunshine and will see the low 70s. Think that the low will be far enough east to keep the threat of funnels out of our area, but will keep an eye out for any surprises. Temps should be a bit warmer for Tuesday with highs mainly in the low 70s.
Brownsville radar shows some convection surging south along the lower Texas coast. /issued 436 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A mid-level trough moving over north Texas is generating some convection well north of the CWA early this morning. Brownsville radar indicates a few streamer showers over the lower Texas coastal waters. Some of these showers may move inland across the lower Rio Grande Valley through mid morning, rainfall amounts will remain light. Rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail tonight and Tuesday as 500mb ridging builds over the region.
405 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak closed low over northern Minnesota with generally zonal low across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. At the surface, weak cold frontal boundary lingers across western South Dakota with light northeast winds to the north, and light westerly winds to the south of it.
517 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak closed low over northern Minnesota with generally zonal low across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. At the surface, weak cold frontal boundary lingers across western South Dakota with light northeast winds to the north, and light westerly winds to the south of it.
Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to persist through the evening hours, favoring the higher terrain along the Continental Divide.
Light winds and seas through the period, with the high pressure ridge axis shifting south and turning winds over the coastal waters from the SE to the W/SW over the next couple of days.
Isolated mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The upper level trough which has brought afternoon mountain thunderstorms in recent days shifts south and east of the area later today. Eastern Pacific ridging will then extend over the area, bringing dry weather and increasing temperatures across the area on Tuesday. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be 5 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday. Breezy northerly winds over the northern Sacramento Valley will develop with the upper level ridge building to the north, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon on the west side. Temperatures are expected to peak on Tuesday, with a trough then approaching the Pacific Northwest.
734 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Warmer and more humid weather conditions will return to the Carolinas this week as high pressure shifts well offshore. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist this week until the next cold front moves through late in the week.
An increase in westerly winds will be noticed during the afternoon hours, while daytime temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s for most valleys.
343 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 High pressure over the region will ensure mainly dry weather conditions for today along with seasonable temperatures for the most part. On Tuesday, low pressure will approach with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected, especially during the afternoon and evening.
401 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Ridging will be building in from the west today, as seen on this morning's RAP analysis. It'll be a dirty ridge, though, as a weakness develops in the flow this afternoon thanks to west- northwest flow aloft. Tomorrow afternoon, a larger area of severe weather is possible as the dryline moves a bit further east into the central South Plains and a cold front moves out of Kansas into the OK and TX Panhandles.
00 inches and high freezing levels, but enough DCAPE develops with surface heating to potentially have isolated downburst winds this afternoon and evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 71 83 70 / 50 50 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 70 82 68 / 50 60 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 82 69 / 50 50 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 82 66 / 60 50 70 60.
742 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A trough of Low pressure is situated across the southern Plains early this morning. As today progresses, the Low core associated with this boundary will slide ENE through southern Illinois into southern Indiana.
Another chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible in the higher terrain west of Billings today with the afternoon heating. Temperatures are expected to cool slightly today with the lower elevations seeing temperatures in the low to mid 70s before warming up on Tuesday into the low 80s.
315 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A weak low pressure system will maintain a deep marine layer today with below average high temperatures.
This is due to a subtle lower level trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico coupled with weak troughing aloft. The lower level trough is tucked within the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic ridge stretching into extreme southeastern United States. An Atlantic ridge stretches into the southeastern United States. Unfortunately, a subtle lower level trough located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is contributing to a rather disturbed weather pattern in our area.
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 The rest of the afternoon and into the evening will continue to have impacts from the upper level low centered over NW MN. Then with daytime heating, temps reaching into the low 70s west slightly cooler east, we will see another round of cumulus development and possible shower activity once again.
858 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Weak low pressure will maintain cool weather in a deep marine layer today with limited clearing.
/Issued 1018 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ Upper level low continues to drift east with primary forcing shifting into southwest/central MO where the more widespread rainfall will remain focused today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day with the highest coverage likely across far E OK / NW AR.
358 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 An upper trough is approaching from the west will move across the Midsouth this evening.
A weak upper level trough will slowly move across the region through Tuesday.
Deep layer wind shear is fairly weak across the area at this time, but will improve this evening as the low-level jet intensifies and this should allow convective cold pools to coalesce and we should see eventually see one or more broken line segments progressing eastward across the South Plains this evening. At this time it looks like low level convergence over a weak dryline will be near or just east of the Caprock by peak heating and that's where we would expect the highest potential for convective initiation.
The previously stalled warm front associated with this system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area throughout the day again, Tuesday.
Models continue to show development in the evening and overnight hours thanks to the upper trough moving eastward over the region as well as some LLJ support. Adjusted pops and QPF to match latest guidance, as well as raised the high temperatures today a degree or two.
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight through Tuesday night across west Texas and portions of southeast New Mexico as a couple of upper level disturbances move through the ridge and interact with a moist and very unstable airmass.
1058 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak closed low over northern Minnesota with generally zonal low across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. At the surface, weak cold frontal boundary lingers across western South Dakota with light northeast winds to the north, and light westerly winds to the south of it.
100 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Weak low pressure will maintain cool weather in a deep marine layer with limited clearing over coastal areas through Tuesday.
60 inches, on the high-end of climatology for mid-June. Thus, highs will remain below seasonal averages and lows will remain warmer than average.
Nevertheless, models in good agreement that weak short wave will drop east-southeast in broader, low-amplitude trough.
HEAT INDICES GETTING UP INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREES RANGE LATE The mid to upper level trough of low pressure over South Florida will slowly dissipate tonight into Tuesday, as high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters moves slowly southward into the Bahamas. The ridge of high pressure will remain over the Bahamas extending westward into the Florida Straits late this week.
340 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A generally active weather pattern continues today, as an upper trof lifts east northeast across Missouri, with a larger scale upper trof moving into southern California and smaller waves traversing through not only the southwesterly flow put west, but also through the southern fringe of the northern stream across the northern plains. Sensible weather impacts for our area for the rest of today and overnight are a short break between systems, before convection starts to roll off the higher terrain then into central Kansas toward Tuesday morning. Dewpoints remain in the 60s overnight, making overnight lows in the lower 60s likely feel higher. Nevertheless, models in good agreement that weak short wave will drop east-southeast in broader, low-amplitude trough.
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A slow moving upper level low pressure will continue to generate showers/storms over far southeast Kansas today. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level trough over the western states with embedded short wave approaching southern California. A cold front will push southward into this unstable airmass with thunderstorms becoming more numerous by Tuesday night.
Subtropical moisture plume and active baroclinic zone will remain quasi-stationary across the lower Ohio Valley tonight. Long wave troughing will remain anchored to our north and east.
1018 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Upper level low continues to drift east with primary forcing shifting into southwest/central MO where the more widespread rainfall will remain focused today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day with the highest coverage likely across far E OK / NW AR.
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Area of isolated to scattered showers/storms that developed around mid-day in parts of central and south central OK will continue to shift east of the fa the rest of this afternoon as the upper low continues to slowly move away from the region. Convection is expected to develop again Tuesday afternoon/evening west of the area in the high plains and along a dryline.
Kept slight chance pops for southern portions of forecast area from late tonight through the day on Tuesday in proximity to the stalled cold front. Lows tonight will be in the 60s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 80s.
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - The basic theme this week is more rain opportunities, but warmer. Looking for cloudy skies tonight along with some patchy fog under weak high pressure which is centered over Ontario. Weak low pressure will push a cold front through the cwa Tuesday night. Latest model trends keep the low closer to I-70.
A subtle ridge of high pressure moves over the region on Tuesday. This ridge will keep temperatures above normal, as readings will be similar to what has been experienced the past several days.
BMickelson Previous discussion: High pressure over the region will ensure mainly dry weather conditions for today along with seasonable temperatures for the most part. On Tuesday, low pressure will approach with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected, especially during the afternoon and evening.
255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019 The final departure later this evening, of the lingering low pressure influence from the Canadian prairie is directing the last push of its isolated shower activity south of Highway 200.
253 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A cluster of thunderstorms across northern Cherry County this afternoon with a cold front extending west to east from central Cherry County through Central Holt County. The thunderstorms should develop a cold pool and reinforce the cold front as it sags southward this evening. All models show an upper level low pressure circulation in northeast Colorado early this evening lifting northeast across southwest Nebraska late tonight and into central Nebraska Tuesday morning. The low will move to the east and southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening with decreasing chances for rainfall. The widespread rainfall and overcast skies will bring cooler highs from 65 to 70. Lows will be in the lower 50s.
/issued 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight through Tuesday night across west Texas and portions of southeast New Mexico as a couple of upper level disturbances move through the ridge and interact with a moist and very unstable airmass.
An broad upper trof is progged to settle over the region, with ridging over the Pacific Northwest. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than normal. The ridging slides slowly east, and is replaces by a upper trof developing over Idaho on Monday. Some degree of ridging slides across the region through the end of the period. ECMWF keeps th ridging pretty shallow, flattened by the upper low in northern Canada, and allows unsettled zonal to northwest flow to persist. GFS amplifies ridge a bit, but moves it quickly through, bringing unsettled southwest flow over the region.
60 inches, on the high-end of climatology for mid- June. Latest hi res models indicate that coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase through the evening as the surface inflection/low pressure approaches. Thus, lows will remain warmer than average.
Main short term focus will be with the potential of flooding heavy rain across the area the remainder of the day and through the evening as the upper low eventually shifts east of the area.
The rest of the afternoon and into the evening will continue to have impacts from the upper level low centered over NW MN. Then with daytime heating, temps reaching into the low 70s west slightly cooler east, we will see another round of cumulus development and possible shower activity once again.
Upper level analysis shows weakening low pressure over far northern MN, with near zonal flow from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. Temps are on the cooler side again, 60s and lower 70s, with light east to northeast winds.
Forcing for large- scale ascent appears to be gentle and episodic, related to a combination of mean convergence in the lower troposphere from veering/decelerating trades, favorable cyclonic vorticity advection downstream from a weak mid-level trough of midlatitude origin, and a not-prohibitive outflow pattern aloft. Therefore, despite tendencies for some areas to get "worked over" by ongoing clusters of both convective and (trailing) stratiform rain, we will maintain the higher-than average rain chances.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 82 71 87 / 70 80 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 81 69 85 / 50 70 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 81 70 86 / 60 80 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 68 82 / 40 80 40 50.
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Aviation - The basic theme this week is more rain opportunities, but warmer. Looking for cloudy skies tonight along with some patchy fog under weak high pressure which is centered over Ontario. Weak low pressure will push a cold front through the cwa Tuesday night. Latest model trends keep the low closer to I-70.
A broad trough remains positioned over the southwestern CONUS, with several weak vorticity maxima traversing the Four Corners region in relatively meager upper-level flow.
A disturbance associated with an upper level low is forecast to dip down from Canada after mid-week bringing some cooler air to the Pacific Northwest. A thermal trough will remain in place near the coast through late this week and into the weekend.
With multiple rounds of showers/storms expected, and the high moisture of the atmosphere right now, will continue with FFW even though nothing is immediately expected. Temps may warm a little for the daytime on Tues, but that all depends on the timing of the minor troughs aloft and how long we can spend in between the rounds of rain/storms. Have kept the forecast high in continuity, but could see things being a little cooler on Tuesday if the storms don't exit stage right in the morning, and we get some breaks of sun.
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the region this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. /issued 358 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ An upper trough is approaching from the west will move across the Midsouth this evening.
A trough of low pressure will move across the waters tonight bringing a surge of south southeast winds along with scattered showers and isolated storms. Winds will tend to veer to the south southwest and decrease some towards dawn as the trough begins to move to the north of the waters.
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 A cluster of thunderstorms across northern Cherry County this afternoon with a cold front extending west to east from central Cherry County through Central Holt County. The thunderstorms should develop a cold pool and reinforce the cold front as it sags southward this evening. All models show an upper level low pressure circulation in northeast Colorado early this evening lifting northeast across southwest Nebraska late tonight and into central Nebraska Tuesday morning. The low will move to the east and southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening with decreasing chances for rainfall. The widespread rainfall and overcast skies will bring cooler highs from 65 to 70. Lows will be in the lower 50s.
/issued 358 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ An upper trough is approaching from the west will move across the Midsouth this evening.
Southwest flow returns as weak trough axis makes its approach to north FL, slightly tightening the pressure gradient and sending a weak wind surge over the Gulf Stream waters. Near normal overnight lows in the low 70s.
Low amplitude troughing will remain in place across the Great Lakes and New England for much of late week. Meanwhile, another trough will begin to work southeast into the Pacific Northwest later this week as well, which should allow ridging to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley by this weekend.
For CKV and CSV the higher resolution models don/t show much activity until around 07Z/08Z for CKV and 12Z for CSV so will go with VCTS and then MVFR with the more definite storms.
Isolated mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. A broad negatively-tilted trough continues to dip southward fostering the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra crests. On the temperature side, readings will remain above average given the eastern extent of an offshore ridge moves overhead. , Redding and Red Bluff), generally up to the low 100s.
Thunderstorms are expected with diurnal heating tomorrow again in the High Plains and these storms will likely begin moving into western Oklahoma and western north Texas around the end of the TAF period. Greater concentration of convection may occur near a southeastward moving cold front into northern Oklahoma around the same time. /issued 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ Area of isolated to scattered showers/storms that developed around mid-day in parts of central and south central OK will continue to shift east of the fa the rest of this afternoon as the upper low continues to slowly move away from the region. Convection is expected to develop again Tuesday afternoon/evening west of the area in the high plains and along a dryline.
A generally active weather pattern continues today, as an upper trof lifts east northeast across Missouri, with a larger scale upper trof moving into southern California and smaller waves traversing through not only the southwesterly flow put west, but also through the southern fringe of the northern stream across the northern plains. Sensible weather impacts for our area for the rest of today and overnight are a short break between systems, before convection starts to roll off the higher terrain then into central Kansas toward Tuesday morning. Dewpoints remain in the 60s overnight, making overnight lows in the lower 60s likely feel higher. Nevertheless, models in good agreement that weak short wave will drop east-southeast in broader, low-amplitude trough.
GAH PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: The final departure later this evening, of the lingering low pressure influence from the Canadian prairie is directing the last push of its isolated shower activity south of Highway 200.
On the larger scale it's a fairly amplified pattern for mid June with strong high pressure off the west coast and a weak split creating troughiness to our northwest over the Great Basin, and a ridge downstream over the southern plains and portions of eastern Mexico. Temperatures will continue near or even a couple of degrees below average as see another weak trough over the weekend.
Look for winds to increase Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of a dry cold front.
upper ridging moves in on Fri, but there a hint of a complex dropping down Fri night.
Further west, still looking at a decent chance for precipitation and clouds, which will keep lows a bit warmer. Speaking of precip, it appears better chances will materialize by Wednesday morning across central SD as a wave of low pressure enters the picture. The models and ensembles continue to show a large upper level low pressure area in southwest Canada with a strong jet coming in off the Pacific over the Pacific Northwest. This upper low/trough digs over the western U. As a result, several impressive short wave troughs will break off and come across our region through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Drier and warmer weather expected as west northwest flow aloft and near the surface helps to dry out the atmosphere somewhat.
An upper ridge will build in by mid week which will suppress convection and decrease cloud cover. Late in the weekend the ridge is expected to erode from the west which will allow the coverage of convection to increase.
937 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Weak low pressure will maintain cool weather in a deep marine layer with limited clearing over coastal areas through Tuesday. A ridge will nudge the low south Tuesday and Wednesday.
The rest of the afternoon and into the evening will continue to have impacts from the upper level low centered over NW MN. Then with daytime heating, temps reaching into the low 70s west slightly cooler east, we will see another round of cumulus development and possible shower activity once again. Starting Wednesday, model guidance supports the return of periods of wetter weather for the second half of the week, as an upper low meanders eastward from the Canadian Rockies along the Canadian/US border toward the forecast area.