Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Low clouds will continue to linger through Oklahoma along a northwest/southeast oriented warm front stretching from Bryan county up through Woods county. Current dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s are keeping morning lows similarly in the low to mid 70s across Oklahoma and western north Texas. East of the dryline, dewpoints in the 60s/70s as well as temperatures in the low to mid 90s will result in warm and humid conditions. On the wet side, low temperatures will stay up into the low to mid 70s, while on the dry side temperatures will all into the low to mid 60s.
Mostly clear skies will allow radiational cooling into the lower 40s and upper 30s, but winds gusting 10-15mph over much of the region will keep frost/freeze concerns to a minimum. Eastern CONUS high pressure throughout the column will provide warm temperature and quiet weather through the period. Long range model ensembles indicate precipitation chance will return late week with approaching low pressure. Expect light easterly flow under mainly clear skies through the period thanks to high pressure.
513 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022 08z surface analysis had low pressure over southeast SD with trailing cold front into the NE panhandle/CO. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge from TX into the Great Lakes and west/southwest flow aloft over the northern Plains. Left exit region over cold front supporting band of shra/TS from northeast CO into southern MN within low MUCAPE regime, some of which is affecting south central SD. Lee cyclogenesis occurs over CO along aforementioned cold front, quickly move northeast overnight into eastern SD.
440 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022 A broad area of low pressure still resides over the Pacific Northwest and stretches well into British Columbia this morning.
(Today and tonight) Low clouds will continue to linger through Oklahoma along a northwest/southeast oriented warm front stretching from Bryan county up through Woods county. Current dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s are keeping morning lows similarly in the low to mid 70s across Oklahoma and western north Texas. East of the dryline, dewpoints in the 60s/70s as well as temperatures in the low to mid 90s will result in warm and humid conditions. On the wet side, low temperatures will stay up into the low to mid 70s, while on the dry side temperatures will all into the low to mid 60s.
Even though instability in western North Dakota will struggle due to the low moisture, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will warrant keeping an eye on thunderstorms this afternoon for hail/wind gust threats. Convective activity has mostly waned this morning, and will likely remain on the low side until instability can develop this afternoon. Overall, with strong low pressure and ample moisture available, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area through the day Monday.
257 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Low pressure will linger near the coast through Monday, prolonging the well below normal temperatures. Below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of the upcoming week as the upper low stalls offshore, but rainfall chances will return late in the week. Temperatures remain in the mid 40s (north) to the lower 50s (south) as of 17Z and are on track to finish the day nearly 25 degrees below normal for early May. Tonight's lows should easily fall into the low to mid 40s. Cloud cover is expected to develop once again, but this time only across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower proximity to the offshore low. Monday's highs will reach the low/mid 60s in the north while reaching the lower 70s in the Sandhills.
410 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Quiet and warmer weather can be expected through most of the week. Eastern CONUS high pressure throughout the column will provide warm temperature and quiet weather through the period. Long range model ensembles indicate precipitation chance will return late week with approaching low pressure.
Dry and warmer weather returns late this week. Overall the forecast is on track with the upper level trough starting to push into the northern part of the state. Current temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and are generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will spread south across much of the region this afternoon with snow expected to develop across the higher northern Sierra passes.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Hot and humid conditions through the Short Term period with a mid-level ridge over the Ohio River Valley and eastern Texas.
258 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure will remain established across the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina through much of the workweek, maintaining generally dry conditions.
259 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 The front will shift south and dissipate as high pressure builds into the area from the north tonight and Monday as the low pressure system sits offshore of the Carolinas.
A large upper level trof to the west with strong ridging to the east and a low pressure center just off the Atlantic coast.
/Updated at 0109 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022/ As low pressure over the east begins to weaken. High pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight with increasing pressure gradient over Alabama.
/Issued 1056 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022/ Low ceilings remain in place across much of north and east Georgia this morning, and hi-res guidance is trending slower on the timing of these clouds scattering out as upper level ridging builds in over the area. Upper level ridging will build over the southeast, keeping a trough east of the area. A shallow layer of moisture across mainly north GA this morning will shift east as the upper ridge builds into the area. Atwell High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week.
(This evening through Monday) Hot, summertime weather will continue into Monday as an anomalously strong low-level thermal ridge remains in place across the Southern Plains. The highest temperatures will be west of the dryline due to the drier air mass and higher temperatures just above the surface.
237 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Upper-level ridging is currently building into the Midwest, and mid- to low-level flow has turned to out of the southwest, advecting warm air into the CWA. In turn, temperatures have risen into the low 70s for most locations, and will likely increase by a couple more degrees this afternoon. The upper-level ridge will only continue to build into the region tonight and tomorrow, as warm air continues to advect into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This will set the stage for even warmer temperatures tomorrow, as values climb into the mid to upper 80s. Elmore Confidence remains high in upper-level ridging continuing to build across the eastern US, leading to a period of anomalously high temperatures across the Middle Mississippi Valley.
1246 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Strong high pressure extending from eastern Canada into the eastern Great Lakes will continue to feed dry air into Se Mi today under easterly winds (with speeds around 10 knots). Upper level ridging will continue to expand over the area today and especially into the upcoming week as an upper level blocking pattern sets up with the large ridge over the eastern CONUS with upper low and/or troughing over the western CONUS and also the far western Atlantic Ocean.
403 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week. A backdoor cold front will cross the region late week. Dry air mass remains in place across the forecast area through Monday, as an area of high pressure slides through eastern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes. Lows tonight will be continued below normal, with lows across the north in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees, and in the low to mid 30s Downeast. Highs on Monday will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures will gradually warm as high pressure strengthens over the region through the week. Very quiet weather continues over the North Country with high pressure in control. A Rex blocking pattern has set up along the eastern United States with high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast and low pressure over the coastal Carolinas. With high pressure locked in place for the next few days, anticipate warming temperatures and continued dry conditions.
Focus will shift to Monday as even warmer air starts to arrive courtesy of an increasing pressure gradient between low pressure in the eastern Dakotas and the sprawling high pressure in the SE states. Focus will shift to Monday as even warmer air starts to arrive courtesy of an increasing pressure gradient between low pressure in the eastern Dakotas and the sprawling high pressure in the SE states. Will continue with heightened messaging on the elevated threat Upper level ridging will hold across Indiana and Michigan through the fcst period. The resultant sfc situ will reflect high pressure to the east with a low pressure system lifting from the central to northern plains into Monday.
Temperatures will gradually warm as high pressure strengthens over the region through the week. Very quiet stretch of weather continues with high pressure locked in to our north, resulting in very little change to the overall weather pattern. Will see subtle warm air advection commence on weak east/northeast flow on the southern periphery of the high. Should see another good night of radiational cooling tonight with calm winds and clear skies, but thinking overnight lows tonight/Monday morning will still be a little warmer than those observed this morning given the warm air advection. Very quiet weather is again expected on Monday as the high pressure remains in place. Tranquil and dry conditions expected across the North Country as deep-layer ridge remains the controlling weather feature across New York and Northern New England.
The period will be dominated by high pressure nosing down from upper New England and eastern Canada, and upper level ridging that will remain over the area thanks to low pressure slowly spinning off the east coast. Warmer temps are expected with less cloud cover and the low level flow becoming more SE.
After sunset temperatures will begin to drop which will lead to a decoupling of the lower atmosphere and a dropoff of the stronger winds that are ongoing. Expect that temperatures will drop into the low 50s with some slightly cooler temperatures possible in the northeast where cloud cover will be less. Upper level ridging will remain in place into tomorrow but with a upper level trough across the Dakotas, surface flow across Indiana will become more southerly than currently in place. This will help bring warmer temperatures into the area and kickstart the warm week that is expected. * Anomalous upper ridge will bring in near record to record temperatures mid-week.
Temperatures are above freezing in the lower elevations, therefore only light snow accumulations are expected on the grassy areas. Otherwise, a large deep trough will continue over the region today.
340 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Much warmer and more humid conditions are expected over the area the next few days along with breezy conditions.
139 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 /Updated at 0109 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022/ As low pressure over the east begins to weaken. High pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight with increasing pressure gradient over Alabama.
Monday morning will start in the upper 50s for SE AL and SW GA, and the low 60s for the FL Panhandle.
This will be short lived as a warm front slides north through the CWA whipping winds to the south by this evening with an increase in speed. Highs tomorrow soar into the low 90s north to upper 90s along the KS/OK border.
312 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western Iowa and far southeastern Nebraska this evening along a weak warm front. The combination of wind and cloud cover should keep overnight lows fairly warm in the low to mid 60s in most areas with upper 60s possible in far southeast Nebraska. This will allow highs to warm into low 80s across our northern counties to the low 90s in our south. In addition, dewpoints in the morning will range in the 60s but fall rapidly with the frontal passage into the low 40s during the afternoon, allowing rapid afternoon heating.
An increasing mid/upper level ridge over the forecast area will promote increasing warmth, and we'll also have a subtle tightening of the surface pressure gradient and increased S-SE surface wind due to a strong cyclone passing over the upper midwest. With the increased low level moisture transport, there may be some fog in the lower Pine Belt region early Monday morning, but strong mixing after sunrise will limit the extent of any fog.
1246 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic with a trough extending south into Florida. West of this feature, ridging extended from the Ozarks north northeast into Hudson Bay Canada. West of this feature, closed low pressure was located over northern Alberta with a trough extending south into the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from near O'Neill south southwest into northwestern Kansas. Troughing across the western CONUS will amplify midweek. At the same time, high pressure will strengthen across the Arklatex into the lower Ohio Valley.
Starting tomorrow, an upper level ridge will start amplifying from the south, into the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
154 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. Frost and even freeze will be possible over the highest elevations of these counties but no headlines since these zones are not in the growing season yet.
Local media reported a waterspout off the Seven Mile Bridge near Marathon, since then no waterspouts have not been reported. A cloud line developed near the Lower Keys and sparked showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Enjoy this weather while it lasts as the upper ridge that is building over the Mid-South will become entreched over the area and will allow the temperatures to rise to record high levels across the area. The upper ridge builds enough by mid-week to be an upper level high which will allow for temperatures to rise into the 90s.
252 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022 Fast southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region with a series of jet streaks rounding the broad upper trough to the west and affecting the forecast area tonight and on Monday, bringing good chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The attendent warm front lifting through ncntl Nebraska is one area of interest for thunderstorms.
1050 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022 08z surface analysis had low pressure over southeast SD with trailing cold front into the NE panhandle/CO. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge from TX into the Great Lakes and west/southwest flow aloft over the northern Plains. Left exit region over cold front supporting band of shra/TS from northeast CO into southern MN within low MUCAPE regime, some of which is affecting south central SD. Lee cyclogenesis occurs over CO along aforementioned cold front, quickly move northeast overnight into eastern SD.
Much of the western US remains under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure today and continuing into early this week. A more defined low pressure circulation is expected to move into northwest Montana late tonight into Monday morning. Widespread temperatures to near or below freezing are expected.
134 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. Frost and even freeze will be possible over the highest elevations of these counties but no headlines since these zones are not in the growing season yet.
128 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Low pressure will linger near the coast through Monday, prolonging the well below normal temperatures. Below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of the upcoming week as the upper low stalls offshore, but rainfall chances will return late in the week. Temperatures remain in the mid 40s (north) to the lower 50s (south) as of 17Z and are on track to finish the day nearly 25 degrees below normal for early May. Tonight's lows should easily fall into the low to mid 40s. Cloud cover is expected to develop once again, but this time only across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower proximity to the offshore low. Monday's highs will reach the low/mid 60s in the north while reaching the lower 70s in the Sandhills.
353 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure will control our weather through the week.
150 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Aviation - Becoming much warmer this week - Temps will undergo a significant moderating trend for the upcoming week as an upper level ridge amplifies over our region.
Our stretch of well above normal temperatures will be replaced by just above normal temperatures this week as West Coast troughing begins to influence the region.
Through the night, we will continue to have a high amplitude mid to upper level ridge building across the region, which will provide mostly clear skies from the latter half of tonight through tomorrow. Subsidence under the ridge will warm temps into the mid and upper 70s tomorrow afternoon.
A persistent cool and showery pattern continues through early this week with upper level low pressure remaining over the Pacific Northwest.
Cooler than normal temperatures expected through early this week although some moderation expected with an upper low offshore.
Flow aloft will increase through the short term period as a potent speed max will eject through the longwave trough in the upper levels over the western CONUS. With this shift a high end Wind Advisory will be issued, but the high wind potential will need to be monitored.
1246 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 With high pressure off to the east of Arkansas, a warm front will move southwest to northeast across the state tonight and Monday. Breezy SE winds later in the mrng wl allow the low clouds to scattered out. Breezy S/SE winds wl cont to incrs acrs the area today, allowing warmer and more humid air to spread into the region. Meanwhile, H500 ridge axis initially acrs AR, is progged to shift just to the E the area by Mon. Some model data hint at low QPF amts ovr our the NW part of the FA early Mon as a weak impulse traverses the area on the Wrn periphery of the ridge. Highs on Mon wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Clear skies and cooler temperature will prevail overnight, with drops to the mid 30s in the ridges. Eastern CONUS high pressure throughout the column will provide warm temperature and quiet weather through the period. Long range model ensembles indicate precipitation chance will return late week with approaching low pressure. Expect light easterly flow under mainly clear skies through the period thanks to high pressure.
Strengthening ridge axis overhead along with stubborn high pressure to our northeast will keep dry conditions going through tonight and beyond. Cirrus clouds are moving in from the west, overtopping the ridge axis. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 60s west of I- 75 (thanks to a little downsloping), and low to mid 60's on the east side and north of the bridge. With such dry low levels and great mixing up to at least 850mb we've seen dewpoints dropping into the low 20's for some areas. Winds will have a slight uptick tonight as the gradient gets squeezed between the high pressure northeast and the low moving north into the Dakotas. The upper level ridge continues to strengthen through the period. However, models are trending that the ridge axis may shift just barely to east of the region.
/Tonight Through Monday Night/ A warm front along a line from near Alexandria to Ruston to El Dorado continues to shift east this afternoon bringing increased moisture and warmer temperatures in its wake. Temperatures at this hour range from the low to mid 70s east of the frontal boundary to the 80s to the west. Additionally, dew point values following the frontal passage have increased from the mid 60s to the lower to middle 70s. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to climb into the lower 90s.
A persistent ridge aloft will maintain warm and muggy nights and hot and humid afternoons through early in the week.
The gusty winds and increasing moisture across the area will make for rather warm overnight lows tonight mostly in the lower 70s which is a good 10-15 degrees above normal for early May. A strengthening mid level ridge will build across the central CONUS over the early part of the week, bringing several days with highs near or above 90 degrees.
336 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Dry high pressure will build over the area through the middle of this week. Atlantic low pressure will produce unsettled weather late this week. A closed upper level low remains off the Delmarva coast, ushering in cooler air in the northeasterly flow both aloft and at the surface. The sfc pattern through the short term period will feature low pressure off the Carolina coast with ridging high pressure across the east coast of U. The forecast area is expected to remain between a closed mid-level low over the western Atlantic and deep ridging over the Mississippi River Valley.
Broad upper trough continues to bring cold weather, showers, and breezy conditions to the region. A weak circulation within the trough will move along the continental divide between Idaho and Montana tonight into Monday morning.
As warmer 850 mb temps nose into the western CWA tonight, overnight lows will only fall into the low 70s over western MO and southeastern Kansas. Elsewhere, temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected. A strong upper-level ridge sandwiched between upper-level troughing over the Western US and the eastern US will build into the region on Monday.
240 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Summary: The upper level trough that brought heavy rains to the Central Plains this past week has now moved off the U. S East Coast and is expected to retrograde westward creating a blocking pattern. This will leave much of the Central Plains under upper level ridging this week with well above normal highs expected.
312 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Another warm sunny day today as upper level ridging has expanded across the central lakes region maintaining the very dry airmass- 12Z RAOB sounding only showed 0. Southeast flow increases daytime Monday in response to deepening low pressure across the northern Plains tightening the local gradient. Modest WAA under the ridge nudges high temps up a few more degrees with highs in the low 70s. A cutoff upper trough continues to block the ridge through the midweek period as another trough moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest results in further strengthening of ridging across the central CONUS.
200 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure is nudging into the area this afternoon, with an overall mostly sunny and milder day across the region. As a result, temperatures in our far eastern areas are running a little cooler than locations to the west, but all in all we're running comfortably higher than yesterday, with 19z temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows overnight will bottom out in the low to mid 50s in most locations. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build into the area early this week, resulting in continued warm/dry weather.
325 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Short term continues to be dominated by a nearly stationary, elongated ridge of high pressure aloft.
A trailing trough, extending from low over the western Atlantic will move south across area this afternoon and evening, followed by high pressure building to the north. The trough is expected to pass through dry, but a few sprinkles can not be ruled out as the convergent line at the leading edge of the trough moves south across area waters.