Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As high pressure builds into the area a slight offshore component to the coastal winds is expected. A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast today and weaken tonight.
207 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Overall pattern across the region has a weak trough moving through the region with a closed low over Nebraska that's tracking slowly east-northeast. The weak trough, aided by light upslope flow and ample low level moisture, has supported some light drizzle/rain across the region. Additionally, with the low strata deck across the UP, temps have largely bottomed out in the high 30s away from the lakeshores and near 40 by the water. Medium range deterministic models are in agreement with a low pressure system quickly tracking through the Lower Midwest today and the trailing upper low over southern Wisconsin by this afternoon. But, forecast soundings indicate much drier air in the lower levels already by this afternoon as subsidence overspreads the area in a switch to an Omega block pattern.
This is due to a tightened pressure gradient out ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough axis. We'll continue to hold onto cloud cover overnight which will help keep overnight lows up in the low-to-mid 60s. A dying cold front moves into the area overnight into early Wednesday, stalling across north Alabama, pretty much along the Tennessee River. With this front across the area, locations north of the front will only see highs in the upper 70s on Wednesday, whereas locations south will get into the low-to-mid 80s.
225 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Ridging from Hudson Bay high pressure will be building over the area from the west and north tonight into Wednesday. Under an onshore northeast flow on Wednesday, max temps will range from the cooler 40s near the Lake Superior shore to the 50s inland. Medium range deterministic models are in agreement with a low pressure system quickly tracking through the Lower Midwest today and the trailing upper low over southern Wisconsin by this afternoon. But, forecast soundings indicate much drier air in the lower levels already by this afternoon as subsidence overspreads the area in a switch to an Omega block pattern.
(The rest of this afternoon/Tonight) Cool/Breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front with lingering clouds.
1259 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 (Today and tonight) All of the precipitation has ended over our forecast area with the cold front generally south of the Red River now. By late tonight into early Wed morning, a mid to upper closed low is expected to be over CO, with increasing SW flow aloft over the Southern Plains.
454 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Low pressure was over northern IN late today, with a cold front trailing southwest through AR, and a trough ahead of the front in KY. Showers/thunderstorms fired ahead of the trough this afternoon as instability built and the system's upper level trough approached. However, the risk of showers/thunderstorms will persist into the night as the cold front moves in from the northwest, possibly persisting into southeast KY on Wednesday morning as the front moves out to the southeast. Ridging, surface and aloft, will move in from the west on Wednesday afternoon and bring decreasing clouds. Along with drier air, that sets us up for a cooler night on Wednesday night.
Aloft, a ridge axis was sliding across NE and was helping to dissipate some of the clouds across western and central NE.
Daytime heating could lead to a few convective driven thunderstorms across the area; however RH values remain on the low side today, with minimal values falling into the low 40s and mid 30s this afternoon. temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s today; with some areas across central GA reaching the low 90s.
251 PM MDT Tue May 3 2022 The afternoon GOES-W WV satellite showed a Pacific mid/upper low centered over the ID/UT border. Rain/snow showers were increasing in coverage in the vicinity of the low and trough. A stubborn low cloud deck along the Cheyenne Ridge has kept daytime temperatures in the 40s. The Pacific low pressure system and accompanying trough will slowly track to the east across the Central Rockies during the period. There will be patchy blowing snow overnight through Wednesday morning over the higher mountain peaks.
Potent upper low remains centered near the region bringing widespread cloud cover along with lingering rain and snow showers. Hi-res models show one final round of precip on the western periphery of the low moving out of the Divide area and swinging south into the upper Snake Highlands and through the Snake Plain over the next few hours. Could see some patchy fog overnight tonight in the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain where the lower levels are a bit more saturated. In the low's wake, upper level ridging quickly builds in over the region tomorrow allowing for clearing skies and more seasonal temperatures. Highs tomorrow will likely be some 10-15 degrees warmer with mostly sunny skies and light winds expected.
101 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight as a low pressure system tracks through the Ohio River Valley.
High pressure in the western Atlantic barely has a grip across the region, and winds have decreased a few knots since this morning. Temperatures are primarily in the mid 80s across the island chain, and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, it is a sticky day outside. The low-level ridge will continue to recede to the east as an approaching trough treks across the eastern half of the United States.
Most of the mid state will remain dry Wednesday morning, and the entire area looks to get a break Wednesday afternoon and overnight under ridging aloft before the next trough brings in another round of showers and storms.
332 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 Warmer and dry conditions through this week with highs in the upper 60s and possible the lower 70s in the end of the week. No precipitation for us with this low.
As the aforementioned upper low moves over the Rockies, the cyclone over northern New Mexico will deepen, increasing westerly flow over New Mexico and the South Plains.
There doesn't appear to be much of a driver of storms once we get near sunset and a surface pressure ridge axis settles overnight. Wednesday should start out relatively rain-free, under transitory ridging aloft. By late afternoon, the upper ridge will have shifted to middle TN and the Ohio River valley, as diffluent flow aloft edges into the Midsouth, downstream from a closed low southeast CO. A combination of lower surface humidity and cirrus from the approaching upper low should limit if not altogether preclude mentionable rain chances on Wednesday.
As of 2 PM, the upper level low was ever so slowly moving across the CWA. Tonight, the upper low will move off to the east, with lingering light rain or drizzle coming to an end by early evening and overall improving conditions as the night progresses. Wednesday, high pressure will be moving across the area resulting in light east winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
748 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Wednesday.
930 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 A few strong to severe storms developed earlier this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that currently is pushing east through northwestern Alabama. A dying cold front oscillates to the north a tad into early Wednesday morning, before stalling across central or northern Alabama. With this front across the area, locations north of the front will only see highs in the upper 70s on Wednesday, whereas locations south will get into the low-to-mid 80s.
Afternoon highs trend warmer into the 60s with some low 70s.
Otherwise, another warmer than normal night is expected with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. Convection will be suppressed tomorrow owing to the aforementioned ridging with only a few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the Hwy 82 corridor in closer proximity to the stalled boundary.
706 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Extensive low stratus will remain entrenched tonight, as moist north- northeast flow holds north of a low pressure system tracking across the Ohio valley. Cold temperatures are in place over all of Southeast Michigan with surface temperatures of 48 degrees in Bad Axe and the lower 50s across southern Lenawee/Monroe counties.
528 PM MDT Tue May 3 2022 The afternoon GOES-W WV satellite showed a Pacific mid/upper low centered over the ID/UT border. Rain/snow showers were increasing in coverage in the vicinity of the low and trough. A stubborn low cloud deck along the Cheyenne Ridge has kept daytime temperatures in the 40s. The Pacific low pressure system and accompanying trough will slowly track to the east across the Central Rockies during the period. There will be patchy blowing snow overnight through Wednesday morning over the higher mountain peaks.
A ridge of high pressure will shift in from the west coast over the next few days with temperatures climbing to about 10 degrees above average by the end of the week, including upper 90s for Tucson.
A weak upper ridge will bring drier conditions along with warmer temperatures to much of Western Washington on Wednesday.
A warm front continued to be located near the Louisiana border and will stall here this evening.
616 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 (Through tonight ) Cool/Breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front with lingering clouds.
533 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Low pressure will approach from the west late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday night as a coastal low passes well to the south.
By the weekend, an anomalous upper low will settle southward along the Mid- Atlantic coast bringing a period of damp and unseasonably cool temperatures to the area. Satellite and surface analysis showed the warm front stalled over Buckingham county this evening. A cold front will reach the Virginia/West Virginia line late tonight, then push east across our region on Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms especially in the foothills and piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina.
(Through tonight ) Cool/Breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front with lingering clouds.
1045 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A summer-like air mass and upper-level ridging will dominate the weather during the work week.
Warmer and dry conditions through this week with highs in the upper 60s and possible the lower 70s in the end of the week. No precipitation for us with this low.
Much warmer temperatures are expected Wednesday, becoming cooler by the weekend.
Warm and humid conditions continue with persistent onshore flow and broad mid-level ridging. The ridge should begin to slide farther south and east as the next trough nudges in from the west through Wednesday.
708 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 An upper trough and closed low will move into Wyoming and western Colorado tonight. The upper low is forecast to move into western Kansas late Wednesday night, with likely POPs forecast across the southwestern half of the area.
733 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Ridging from Hudson Bay high pressure will be building over the area from the west and north tonight into Wednesday. Under an onshore northeast flow on Wednesday, max temps will range from the cooler 40s near the Lake Superior shore to the 50s inland.
Breezy north winds persist for the remainder of the day with cooler temperatures and clear skies.
932 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Low pressure will approach from the west late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday night as a coastal low passes well to the south.
857 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Wednesday.
High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will shift eastward ahead of an upper- level trough pushing across the eastern United States.
Lows will range from the upper 60s acrs cntl LA to the lower 70s acrs lower SE TX.
Have added mention of fog in the Lewistown area and surrounding river valleys due to the additional late afternoon precipitation there increasing the low level moisture, which should yield some patchy fog as clouds diminish.
The boundary is expected to shift northward as a warm front overnight, leaving patchy fog in its wake along and north of the I-20 corridor. Forecast grid adjustments were made to account for the position of the warm frontal boundary. By 04/08Z, MVFR low clouds will become more widespread as the boundary shifts north as a warm front, with patchy fog possible at nearly all terminals through 04/15Z.
Snow will continue across the west and south as precipitation bands continue to wrap around the low into those areas. Upslope precipitation will continue through much of the day Wednesday as the deformation axis continues to rotate around the low, but the heaviest precipitation will end by early afternoon Wednesday.
748 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A short wave trough over south GA/north FL slips out over the Atlantic over night and continues east Mon as an upper ridge shifts out over the Gulf of Mexico from northeast Mexico and the southern/central plains. High pressure in the open Atlantic ridges west. Winds 15 knots or less through most of the week as high pressure across the waters gives way to a weak front setting into central FL and washing out as high pressure builds in.
822 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 A summer-like air mass and upper-level ridging will dominate the weather during the work week.
Precip chances will remain fairly high the rest of the evening over our east half, but decrease significantly after midnight as a cold front pushes across the midstate.
Kuroski (Issued 300 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low pressure passing south and east of WI will continue to shift away tonight. The influence of ridging is expected continue into Wednesday night as the next system holds off to our west.
A cold front will exit the southeastern edge of the forecast area this morning, however showers will linger into the afternoon as a trough axis will swing through.
Back to the west, a sharp ridge is moving east from the Central Plains. The low level ridge will continue to weaken and shift east as the parent trough over the Great Lakes moves into the New England region this evening and overnight.
A couple of strong storms will remain possible over the next hour or two with gusty winds the main threat ahead of an approaching cold front. Low pressure was over northern IN late today, with a cold front trailing southwest through AR, and a trough ahead of the front in KY. Showers/thunderstorms fired ahead of the trough this afternoon as instability built and the system's upper level trough approached. However, the risk of showers/thunderstorms will persist into the night as the cold front moves in from the northwest, possibly persisting into southeast KY on Wednesday morning as the front moves out to the southeast. Ridging, surface and aloft, will move in from the west on Wednesday afternoon and bring decreasing clouds. Along with drier air, that sets us up for a cooler night on Wednesday night.
252 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will pass to the south today into tonight. A cold front crosses the area tonight.
The boundary is expected to shift northward as a warm front overnight, leaving patchy fog in its wake along and north of the I-20 corridor. Forecast grid adjustments were made to account for the position of the warm frontal boundary.
100 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Moist low level conditions left in the wake of slowly exiting low pressure will remain prevalent overnight into Wednesday morning. Cold temperatures are in place over all of Southeast Michigan with surface temperatures of 48 degrees in Bad Axe and the lower 50s across southern Lenawee/Monroe counties.
342 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Latest analysis shows a surface cold front starting to move across Eastern KY this morning. This frontal boundary is associated with low pressure over western NY. At the upper levels, a trough is swinging through the area. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning ahead of the front, and should wind down from NW to SE throughout the morning as the cold front crosses the area. Afternoon high temps will range from the middle 60s along the I-64 corridor to the lower 70s south of the mountain pkwy.
358 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will build north of the region today, bringing cool air on northeast winds.
146 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Wednesday.
333 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 A mid-level trough currently over the Four Corners region will slide east today, throwing the mid-Mississippi Valley into southwesterly flow as the trough moves into the central Plains.
1241 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 For the 06Z TAFs: A somewhat complicated set of TAFs for this period with low cloud potential, thunderstorms, and eventually a wind shift with a cold front. More thunderstorms are then expected Wednesday night as the cold front moves south across the Panhandles.
Low pressure that providing much of Lower Michigan with some rain yesterday has pushed east of our state. Large area of upstream high pressure is now building into the Western Great Lakes in its wake. Clear skies tonight combined with light winds as the high center builds overhead will allow overnight lows to cool back into the 30s. The aforementioned high pressure will dominate the weather over the forecast area with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, normal to slightly above normal temperatures for this time of the year (upper 50s to mid 60s) and dry weather.
131 AM PDT Wed May 4 2022 Much warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon, then becoming cooler by the weekend.
1241 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Wednesday.
A low pressure system is still progged to track through the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys at the end of the week, but this will have no impact on the UP.
1204 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will approach from the west late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday night as a coastal low passes well to the south.
1144 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022 An upper trough and closed low will move into Wyoming and western Colorado tonight. The upper low is forecast to move into western Kansas late Wednesday night, with likely POPs forecast across the southwestern half of the area.
The east coast sea breeze will develop once again and push westward during the afternoon with the highest coverage over the interior and southwest Florida.
By early this afternoon, the most likely scenario appears to be additional elevated moist convection developing north of a warm front likely somewhere near or just south of I-40 with isolated to scattered surface based storms possible within the warm sector across southern and southwestern OK by late this afternoon. Then, later this evening, storms will move eastward into N TX/SW OK off the dryline near the southern TX panhandle as the upper trough approaches.
236 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Ridging from Hudson Bay high pressure will be building over the area from the west and north tonight into Wednesday. Under an onshore northeast flow on Wednesday, max temps will range from the cooler 40s near the Lake Superior shore to the 50s inland. A low pressure system is still progged to track through the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys at the end of the week, but this will have no impact on the UP.
A few strong to severe storms developed earlier this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that currently is pushing east through northwestern Alabama. A dying cold front oscillates to the north a tad into early Wednesday morning, before stalling across central or northern Alabama. With this front across the area, locations north of the front will only see highs in the upper 70s on Wednesday, whereas locations south will get into the low-to-mid 80s.
243 AM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface map places low over southeast Colorado with inverted trof through eastern Wyoming. Upper low is located over western Colorado, with broad area of lift spreading showers into southwest South Dakota. Upper low track into the Central Plains today, with forecast area on northern edge of best forcing. Showers shift south and east of the area tonight as the upper low slowly moves to the east.
Wind shifts found on surface observations suggest the cold front is currently located near central TN and encroaching on the Plateau where additional showers and storms are currently seen on radar. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 61 86 66 80 / 30 0 30 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 57 85 65 79 / 40 0 20 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 81 56 85 63 78 / 30 0 20 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 52 82 60 77 / 50 0 10 50 90.
302 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Latest analysis shows a surface cold front starting to move across Eastern KY this morning. This frontal boundary is associated with low pressure over western NY. At the upper levels, a trough is swinging through the area. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning ahead of the front, and should wind down from NW to SE throughout the morning as the cold front crosses the area. Afternoon high temps will range from the middle 60s along the I-64 corridor to the lower 70s south of the mountain pkwy.
318 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 H2O imagery was showing an upper trough from the thumb of eastern Michigan to southwestern Indiana. This feature will move well east of central Indiana by daybreak and will be replaced by ridging over the Wabash Valley by late today.
144 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will pass through the state from west to east through the day.
256 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 06z data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a developing storm system in the southern Rockies. After sunrise the quiet but cool conditions will continue through sunset as the high moves into the Great Lakes and clouds slowly increase.
Dry conditions should prevail through tonight across mid state region due to ridging influences surface and aloft.
An upper level trough was moving east of the area early this morning. Upper level ridging across the southwestern Gulf will build northeastward into the area this afternoon, and upper level flow will become northerly. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain south of Bermuda, and sea breeze boundaries will move in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to warm, with highs around 90 across the interior, and the low to mid 80s at the beaches.
327 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022 Cool below normal temperatures for today with surface warm front to remain south of the KS/OK border and overcast skies.
154 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Low pressure will pass through the state from west to east through the day.
1153 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 Ridging from Hudson Bay high pressure will be building over the area from the west and north tonight into Wednesday. Under an onshore northeast flow on Wednesday, max temps will range from the cooler 40s near the Lake Superior shore to the 50s inland.
However, majority of the precipitation is not reaching the ground due to dry layer in the low levels. An upper low over the Utah and Colorado border is forecast to progress through the Southern Plains. As a result of the aforementioned low's path ridging will build in over the Northern Plains. High temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s this afternoon with overnight lows remaining above freezing. On the backside of the upper ridge a low level thermal ridge "LLTR" will build over northern Montana into southern Saskatchewan.
Water vapor imagery this morning showing a vigorous closed low over the central Rockies which has induced precip activity to develop over the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure prevailed over the region. Precip chances will increase today with the approach of aforementioned upper low.
The cold front will exit the southeast this morning, however showers will linger into the afternoon as a trough axis will cross this afternoony.