Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper trough will move into the CWA through Thursday. At 00Z Thursday afternoon late, all the models have the upper trough over the eastern CWA with a weak closed circulation over southeast to south central Colorado. The low level winds will continue south and this evening. A cold front is expected to move south across the plains from 04Z to about 12Z overnight.
Deep layer high pressure over the eastern U. Light winds and the clear skies will allow overnight lows to drop into the lower-mid 50s areawide, except for barrier islands south of the Cape that stay a little above 60 degrees. The Volusia beaches should have highs in the mid 70s as ocean temps were cooling into the lower 70s there. High pressure centered over the deep south will produce a northerly flow tonight then as it drifts east the winds will veer slowly to the northeast on Thu.
/issued 406 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016/ Very un-Fall like day across the area, with almost every observing site managing to reach the lower/mid 80s this afternoon. Surface winds continue to gradually veer toward the south as high pressure slowly shifts off to the east, while high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
901 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 High pressure for the remainder of the work week.
939 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 A trough of low pressure will move east of the area overnight.
Expect an area of stratus to develop overnight in the vicinity of the boundary and should have some fog development as well immediately ahead and behind the boundary with the winds are diminished thorugh the trough axis. The thermal ridge bubble will remain over Iowa on Thursday and will lead to very warm conditions and near record temperatures for much of the forecast area with highs in the low to mid 70s central and south. Much less certainly over far northern Iowa where the stratus and fog may linger and could keep temperatures much cooler. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ As referred to last week, model solutions on the low pressure track dipped south in the mid range and are beginning to transition back to the northwest as the system moved into the upper air network domain.
657 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the western U. and a broad ridge across the central U. this morning with a trough in the ern U. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes tonight and then moves into the lower Great Lakes on Thu. Because of this, went slightly cooler with temperatures for highs on Thu and went closer to mos guidance. With low sun angle and weak sunlight, this will also argue for going with cooler temperatures. On Thu, trof developing into the Upper Great Lakes from low pres developing over the Plains will result in cigs falling during the aftn to IFR at KIWD and MVFR at KCMX.
757 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Building high pressure Overnight, will provide clear skies, with temperatures falling into the 40s away from the coast, and into the lower to middle 50s near the coast.
716 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weakening low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight.
634 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Low pressure will continue moving northward across northern Maine this evening.
This disturbance will also usher in a cold front but ahead of that frontal passage, MVFR CIGS will develop by the end of the TAF period particularly at kggg, klfk and ktyr. /issued 350 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016/ Upper level ridge is firmly anchored over the mid-section of the country while an upper trough continues to dig in along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure remains dominant just off to the east with return southerly flow increasing in response to a developing low lee of the Rockies. This warmer return flow coupled with sunny skies have allowed temperatures to reach the lower to mid 80s areawide this afternoon. Clouds will also begin to increase ahead of the approaching trough out west with an accompanying cold front emerging across the Plains.
937 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Low pressure will continue moving northward across northern Maine this evening.
A drier northwest flow aloft will remain over the area through Thursday in the wake of a departing upper trough, providing most of SE Oregon and SW Idaho with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will remain noticeably cooler, with lows tonight near or slightly below normal and highs on Thursday near normal.
A low pressure system moving north of the area will bring much cooler temperatures Thursday. Expect warmer temperatures this weekend ahead of a strong low pressure system approaching from the west.
A vigorous mid/upper trough over Northern CA today is progged to dig into the southwest states tonight before emerging over the Central High Plains late on Thursday. A strong cold front will arrive across the area on Thursday night.
Low pressure was located over southern Manitoba with northwest to north winds across the forecast area. Current surface analysis place trough/frontal boundary over the northern/central plains with ridge over the midwest. Upper level analysis places ridging over the midwest with trough digging over the northern Sierra into the Great Basin.
The low level wind shear will lower on Thursday as surface winds increase from the south by mid-morning.
Surface map shows a ridge of high pressure bisecting the mid state with return southerly flow already bringing excessive warmth to areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau.
/00Z TAFS/ Surface pressure gradient is gradually tightening with the approach of a deepening longwave upper trough. It will be a bit cooler due to cloud coverage and therefore no anticipating breaking maximum daily records.
Have kept patchy fog mention out of Galveston Bay with water temperatures in the low 70s and onshore flow providing enough mixing to mitigate against a radiation fog threat, but will continue to monitor for any possible impacts or forecast updates.
Continued quiet conditions across the mid state this evening with warmer than average temperatures to finish out the work week. Again this evening temperatures are a bit cooler than the previous forecast, so lowered temps slightly overnight, especially for the Plateau.
509 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weak trough/boundary which had been pushing across our CWA has come to a halt near the I-70 corridor, and should gradually wash out in place. With 850 mb temperatures near 17C, temperatures should get at least to the mid 70s in the afternoon, and perhaps even warmer over the southwest CWA, where the NAM MOS guidance gives highs closer to 80.
406 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Very un-Fall like day across the area, with almost every observing site managing to reach the lower/mid 80s this afternoon. Surface winds continue to gradually veer toward the south as high pressure slowly shifts off to the east, while high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
A cold front will move into northern Arizona tonight.
Low pressure moving thru Manitoba this aftn northwest of Winnipeg at 20z. Trough of low pressure south from the low through the Devils Lake basin to nr Jamestown. Main cold front located from the low and into far southeastern Saskatchewan and far northwestern ND. This cold front will drop southeast tonight. This low and upper low moves NNE with main deformation zone developing quickly over parts of central into northeastern SD.
A cold front will move south across the CWA overnight with the main thrust of colder air across the CWA Thursday. Snow will spread across the CWA Thursday then taper off/end Thursday night as the surface/upper lows move fairly quickly east across Nebraska. especially over the Pine Ridge.
218 PM PST Wed Nov 16 2016 Below average temperatures will continue into Thursday behind last night's cold front.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure near the northern Gulf coast will lift to the north-northeast overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will pass through the Florida Keys tonight.
551 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 High pressure for the remainder of the work week.
758 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Mid level ridge was centered over East TX this evening, with SW flow over the Central Plains. Since the cold front is not expected to arrive until after midnight tomorrow night, it is looking more likely. The strong winds coupled with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s will create an elevated fire danger, although this will be tempered somewhat as low level moisture continues to increase through the day. Fast moving upper wave will shift into the central plains on Thursday with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma late Thursday night.
Some of the cooler valleys are dropping quicker than forecast and made adjustments to the ongoing temperatures to account for this. Also, dropped lows a couple of degree in these favored cooler valleys. Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 77 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0.
High pressure remains in place over the Mid South tonight.
805 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 The sensible weather across west-central and southwest Florida will remain benign through the next several days as troughing continue to pivot away from the region overnight and allows stacked mid/upper level ridging to build overnight.
There should be a reprieve tomorrow as an upper level trough comes closer and winds increase. Most models agree that the precip behind the front will stay north of the area, so the forecast remains dry through the weekend as ridging builds in.
/issued 214 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016/ An upper level trough moving out of northern California this afternoon will be near the Colorado Front Range by noon Thursday then to NW Kansas/SW Nebraska by Thursday evening. As the upper trough/low kicks out onto the Central High Plains Thursday afternoon, west-southwest winds should reach their peak mid to late afternoon. With the approaching upper trough heights and thicknesses begin to tumble.
331 PM MST Wed Nov 16 2016 Current surface analysis shows cold front from eastern ND to central SD to western Neb. Low pressure is developing along the front across northeast CO. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis east of the region, with trof axis over the Great Basin, moving quickly eastward. Southwest flow ahead of the trof is helping to produce some light pcpn across western WY and southern MT this afternoon. The upper trof looks to be a fairly quick mover, with snow ending from west to east Thursday night.
611 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Main aviation issue through tomorrow will be the winds due to approaching low pressure system. There should be a reprieve tomorrow as an upper level trough comes closer and winds increase. Most models agree that the precip behind the front will stay north of the area, so the forecast remains dry through the weekend as ridging builds in.
Patchy fog is also across parts of Southeast Texas, and so far the lowest visibilities have been confined to spots in/around the Galveston Bay area.
335 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move farther offshore today as a front stalls to our north. The front will dissipate tonight allowing a ridge of high pressure to spread across the region from the north on Christmas Day.
359 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 A closed upper low will track east and then north across the southwestern states and Great Basin region today and then across the central Rockies and central Plains states Christmas Day.
This will shift quickly to the northeast tonight into Saturday, with heights rising in its wake during the day on Saturday in response to a deep trough digging into the Desert Southwest.
445 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning, followed by high pressure briefly building in this afternoon and tonight.
Lingering rain and snow showers associated with a cold upper level trough will taper off into Saturday morning. The upper trough will shift east of the area Saturday, leaving cool but dry weather in place for Christmas Day. Snow levels tonight will remain below 500 feet as temperatures drop into the low 30s. This means that any precipitation that falls could still fall as snow as temperatures drop below freezing. Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing by daybreak, so that icy and hazardous driving conditions are possible especially on wet or untreated roads. Saturday will remain cool but mostly dry with a a few snow flurries possible in the morning as the upper level trough exits the area. Behind the trough, upper level heights will begin to rise Saturday evening.
1110 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Band of snow has pushed east of the forecast area with weak trough working across the forecast area. Southeasterly flow develops throughout the day on Saturday ahead of the approaching trough to the west. As moisture pools ahead of the storm, would expect areas of freezing drizzle to develop but with the expected warming, the time frame where -fzra would occur looks to be brief. Am concerned a little with SD highway 14 corridor about the freezing drizzle holding on a little longer, but models continue to push warm air northward quickly ahead of the storm.
324 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 Low pressure will bring light rain to the region through the morning. Mid level trough quickly moving across region with area of light rain generally across the southern half of region, with scattered light rain north. As trough exits by midday best moisture will shift east of the ridges with only scattered showers in the afternoon. Dry high pressure will bring cool temperatures overnight, but still above the seasonal averages. High pressure will shift east Christmas Day with temperatures remaining above average.
/issued 711 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016/ A partly cloudy night expected across the area with overnight temperatures about 5 degrees warmer compared to what we say this morning. The Nature Coast has the highest likelihood for fog development but patchy fog will be possible area wide.
221 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure will move offshore this evening. A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon. High pressure returns for Christmas Day.
The onset of the lower conditions have been somewhat delayed but should develop later tonight with conditions impact the air terminals through a few hours after sunrise and may linger in the western areas until noon. Seeing that today's highs already reached the mid 80s, pushed the highs for Saturday into the mid 80s as well, with upper 70s in the northwest ranchlands where cloud cover may hang on longer into the afternoon.
A large upper trough developing across the West will transition mid level flow to the southwest over our region today.
A trough will cross the region today, dragging a cold front down from the northwest. The rainfall intensity will decrease late morning and afternoon as the main trough lifts away. The low level boundary will take on a west to east orientation as it stalls over the area. Rain may taper off in the evening, but some showers will develop again overnight as the front begins to lift northward as a warm front. Christmas Day, the warm front will bring a slight chance for morning showers north half, then the boundary will lift well to our north by afternoon.
Will keep the wind advisory as is for now, as winds over the higher terrain should begin to diminish by mid morning.
Temperatures will increase as this warm moist air streams northward, and so while there could be a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle in portions of central Nebraska, the majority of the area will have temperatures above freezing as precipitation begins.
An amplifying mid level trough along the Pacific Coast will move inland tonight, before ejecting across the interior west during the upcoming holiday weekend. This break will be relatively short however, as the parent upstream trough swings inland during the day Saturday, before taking on a negative tilt as it ejects from the desert southwest into the central/southern rockies Saturday night. Strong, deep layer ascent associated with this ejecting trough will overspread southwest Utah Saturday morning, then continue eastward across southern and central Utah during the day, as a north-south oriented cold front crosses the area.
1214 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A low pressure system will result in unsettled weather this Christmas weekend.
455 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 Low pressure will bring light rain to the region through the morning. Mid level trough quickly moving across region with area of light rain especially across the southern half of region, with scattered light rain north. As trough exits by midday best moisture will shift east of the ridges with only scattered showers in the afternoon. Dry high pressure will bring cool temperatures overnight, but still above the seasonal averages. High pressure will shift east Christmas Day with temperatures remaining above average.
253 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 Models show a weak cold front will be pushing on through the region this morning.
1224 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 Fast moving low pressure will bring showers to the region into Saturday morning. Update was issued for hourly temperatures and dew points, and to remove any mention of freezing rain, as temperatures have warmed well above freezing. An open upper-level trough streaming through the Great Lakes is pulling Gulf moisture northward. Heaviest rain amounts will line up just ahead of the main trough axis spreading southwest to northeast. The upper level wave will exit by late Saturday morning, as a midwest ridge quickly builds.
Highs will range from near 60 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri to the lower 50s across central Missouri this afternoon.
308 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 Low clouds and fog blanket central Illinois early this morning as a mild/moist airmass continues to flow northward into the area ahead of an advancing trough of low pressure. to the lower to middle 40s elsewhere.
A warm front currently extends across extreme northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri at this time. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with lows Christmas morning in the low to mid 50s. On Christmas Day, low pressure will move out of the central Rockies and into South Dakota with a cold front extending south into the central and southern plains.
1218 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure will be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and Saturday and establish an onshore flow into the forecast area. A weakening cold front will be just northwest of the area Saturday. The front will dissipate and high pressure will ridge into the region from the north Christmas Day. Continued to indicate a slight chance in the northern portion of the forecast area overnight night as this area is a little further from the strong upper ridging. Increased cloud cover and a 20 knot low level jet will promote overnight lows in the low/mid 40s.
High pressure continues to hold over the region which is providing an easterly flow of warm, moist Atlantic air over southern Florida. As the holiday weekend draws to a close, the focus moves towards the central part of the country as successive frontal systems push through this week with little impact to Florida thanks to the high pressure over the region. If this comes to fruition, the final days of 2016 could potentially see some rain showers followed by cooler temperatures around New Years Eve and New Years Day.
312 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A weak cold front will move across the region this afternoon. High pressure returns for Christmas Day.
Temps across the region have rebounded nicely from morning lows/precip with mainly 40s to the lower 50s. winds will become southerly and increase by the afternoon hrs as gradient tightens between the ridge and the upcoming storm system to our west. This will be off of overnight lows tonight in the upper teens thru the low 20s.
The surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of the CWA during the mid morning hours and then shift southeast to I-70 around Noon and will move south of the CWA by 3 PM. At this time the northern counties may not reach the mid 40s, areas along I-70 will reach the lower to mid 50s but could fall back into the 40s during the late afternoon hours. Tonight, an upper level trough will dig southeast across the northern plains into the central plains and mid MS river valley. At this time the stronger ascent ahead of the trough should remain across northern and central NE, southeast into IA and northern MO. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 20s along the NE border with upper 20s expected across the southeast counties.
High temperatures will be unseasonably warm again today with highs ranging from near 60 over our far north to the low 70s along the MO/AR/OK state lines. The coldest day will be Thu as the center of the high passes over or nearby our area.
21Z sfc analysis depicts well-defined cold front draped along the eastern slopes of the Laramie Range to a depth of around 5500 feet MSL. West of the sfc cold front, llvl gradients have and will continue to strengthen thru tonight. Areas along and north of the Pine Ridge should see slightly higher amounts of perhaps upwards of 2-5".
The lack of thick cirrus points to slightly warmer, the slightly weaker downslope component suggests a touch cooler, basically wash. Off the caprock, however, the lack of a significant downslope component suggest temperatures about 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday. Have trended lows 2-3 degrees warmer than the warm end of the objective guidance. Wednesday will start us off in what will feel like Fall with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The day starts with northwest flow aloft and westerly winds, but by the afternoon, a cold front begins to work its way through the forecast area keeping highs from skyrocketing for a third day on the Rolling Plains.
1126 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Upper trough axis is moving across the area and chances for convection are quickly diminishing. /issued 330 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/ Record high temperatures could be broken today across the Ark-La- Tex region due to compressional warming ahead of another short wave trough. Expect temperatures in the low 80s today which for many locations could beat or set record highs for previous years today. Late this evening all showers will be east of the area with clearing skies and overnight temperatures in the low 50s to mid 40s. Wednesday, winds turn southerly once again ahead of the next approaching cold front moving out of the Southern Plains. Temperatures ahead of the front will soar due to compressional warming with daytime temperatures in the low 80s to upper 70s across the region.
While deepening S-SW low level flow to advect warm dewpoints over cooler E Gulf shelf waters to produce sea fog development. On Wednesday, lingering upper energy in the Deep South to keep showers in the 20-30 POP range mainly over the Nature Coast while sea fog along the coast will continue to be a concern as moisture pools ahead of cold front. Overall forecast looks unchanged as a deepening trough will move across the eastern U.
243 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Warm conditions this afternoon ahead of a low pressure system that will come through the area tonight providing a chance of thunderstorms.
A cold front will push southward across central Alabama Wednesday night, and bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.
447 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 A low pressure system that will come through the area tonight providing a chance of thunderstorms.
At 20z a mid level trough axis was located over West Tennessee and North Mississippi and moving quickly east. Meanwhile to the northwest the surface cold front was located across Missouri. This warmer air at the surface and colder air aloft with the mid level trough is creating a good deal of instability along the Mississippi River where SBCAPES are approaching 2000 J/KG. The weakening cold front will stall roughly along the I-40 corridor tonight. The stalled front will start to move south during the afternoon as a mid level trough drops through the Mississippi Valley.
1101 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Cirrus moving across western and central Oklahoma will probably keep maximum temperatures a few degrees cooler than earlier expected.