Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. NAM MODEL INDICATES AROUND 1200 J/KG COMPUTED CAPE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN EXTENDED MODELS AND WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN DOWN STREAM HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION. THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. \/HODANISH UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN U.
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA HAVE ENHANCED WINDS FROM A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 348 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE N FL / GA COAST. AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THE TROUGH/FLOW.
/ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.
1128 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. NAM MODEL INDICATES AROUND 1200 J/KG COMPUTED CAPE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN EXTENDED MODELS AND WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN DOWN STREAM HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION. THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET UNDERCUT BY A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
1012 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THEREAFTER RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO CAP OFF ATMOSPHERE.
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AS THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD WHILE THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION MOVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION BY EARLY TO MID WEEK.
/ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.
857 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern Washington Saturday.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 91 69 87 / 10 30 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 88 67 85 / 10 40 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 89 67 86 / 10 30 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 84 65 83 / 20 30 20 30.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING IN THE AREA. BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE IN OUR EAST WHERE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF.
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE ON TRACK TO MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FORECAST AREA WIDE BY MORNING. WHICH COULD AFFECT AREAS IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AL AND THE TN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
THIS MAY BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IN CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES AND FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SHOWER WILL SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TONIGHT AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE WHICH IS PERHAPS WEAKLY LIFTING THE LOW LEVEL DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOW WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GYRATE AROUND NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC/VA COAST NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS WERE ANALYZED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS - ONE OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE EVIDENCE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS STILL WELL NE OF OUR AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
649 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ A WEAK 8H TROF AXIS, POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION, WAS LOCATED FROM WRN TN THROUGH NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA. THE LOW CHC FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THERE.
UPDATE: Temperatures have fallen off since sunset outside of the highly urbanized areas, and some of the observations indicate T/Td spreads are already only 2-3 degrees.
AND THIS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SHOWER WILL SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TONIGHT AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
801 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A LARGE BROAD RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS TODAY ARE AGAIN JUST LIKE THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND IN THE LOW 90S OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
913 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.
810 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT STILL MAKES LOWER CLOUDS /BELOW 8H/ BUT IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WILL KEEP IT MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP MAXES SHORT OF GFS-MOS GUIDANCE. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. AND A SLOWLY FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.
1047 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SWIFTLY TO OUR EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE DAKOTA/MN BORDER. WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING TO JUST DRIZZLE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
210 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Very mild temperatures were observed early this morning across the region, with 2 AM readings in the mid to upper 40s, with a few spots still in the low 50s. Readings should fall a few more degrees before sunrise, settling into the low to mid 40s. Despite the passage of a very weak cold front this morning, temperatures will again be quite pleasant today, with highs in the 60s with light northerly winds. Winds will become easterly and then southeasterly overnight tonight, as high pressure pushes east of the area. Southerly flow and rising heights will help push temperatures into the low 70s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas, despite an increase in mid and high level cloud cover.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL OREGON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COUPLET SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Sprinkles across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL ahead of a cold front will shift southeast of our forecast area by 12Z Saturday. High pressure across the Plains will build southeastward into our area today behind the cold front. The warmest temperatures today will be across central and southeast MO where little if any cloudiness is expected with cooler temperatures across parts of west central and southwest IL where there should be at least scattered low level cloudiness along with weak cold air advection and cooler 850 mb temperatures.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS ARE WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAT HAS OCCURRED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CWA SATURDAY WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THEIR FORECASTED LOW.
OTHERWISE MINOR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES EAST WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST BUT LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES WEST AS THEY HAVE BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 20S. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES PLACES RIDGE OVER AND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGH PUSHING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES OVER. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN BRINGING VERY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
WAITING ON AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. PATCHY/AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW PERSISTING EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW 50S ARE SEEN FROM JENNINGS TO LAFAYETTE AND ALONG THE COAST.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH LARGE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH TWO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
251 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE RESULTING IN QUITE THE CHILLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE AROUND 00Z SUN OVER NEPA. EXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
357 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
1030 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO EASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL NOT USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY, AS TEMPERATURES COOL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
/ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016/ SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW OK LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN STALLS OVER SOUTHERN OK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY VEERING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
948 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE DOMINATES. AS IT DOES THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-80S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. COOLER 925MB TEMPERATURES OUT WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST.
344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 WARMER. A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND GRADUALLY FLATTEN/BECOME BROADER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANOPY OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST. THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID MIXING TODAY AND WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARMER IN FACT THAN TODAY ACROSS OUR EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO GUSTY W-NW WINDS AS WELL.
332 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE KEYS THIS MORNING WILL LOSE DEFINITION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
AND STILL SEEING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN I90 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS OVER THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THERMAL RIDGING EXPANDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WHERE MIXING IS WEAKER AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. 00Z NAM IS INDICATING 850MB TEMPS OF +16C TO +18C OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA TODAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN THE AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER AND ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS OCCURRING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
318 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
BE PREPARED FOR SOME GROUND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES AND IN COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
An attendant cold front in the wake of this upper wave was moving south into central and west central Kansas early this afternoon. A somewhat cooler airmass, on the order of 2-4 degrees celsius at 850 millibars, will spread into western Kansas for Saturday.
Low temperatures overnight will generally be in the low to mid 40s, although a few low lying locations may drop into the upper 30s.
High pressure is in place across the area this morning, but will weaken some as a wave tracks across the the TN valley and into the Carolinas late this afternoon into tonight. Given that, leaned toward the warmer side of guidance for high temperatures this afternoon with forecast highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
The mid to upper level flow pattern will gradually amplify over the next several days, with a longwave trough developing over the southwestern United States. This will lead to lee troughing and warmer temperatures.
1252 AM MST SAT MAR 5 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS.
THE LOW LEVEL CAP(INVERSION) IS WITHIN 100 FT OF THE SFC AND WILL ACT TO KEEP ALL SMOKE PARTICLES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
208 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SWIFTLY TO OUR EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE DAKOTA/MN BORDER. WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. SHIFTING OFF OF THE NC/SC COAST TUE BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WED AND THU RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC WARMING AND MOISTENING THE ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MID-WEEK. AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U. TEMPS INCREASE FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON SUN TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S THU AND FRI.
951 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016 THE LAST DREGS OF A PASSING WEAK TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE BRINGING A STRONG MOISTURE TAP FUELED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
Upper level ridge will begin to nudge eastward into the area late Saturday and despite the surface frontal passage, we should still see temperatures climb into the 60s in most locations. Another warm day is in store for Sunday, but will be breezy/windy across the area as the pressure gradient really tightens up with low pressure developing in the high Plains/Rockies. At the same time, a trough will continue to deepen along the west coast with broad southwest and diffluent flow setting up over our region starting on Sunday.
242 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Patchy fog will affect central Illinois ahead of an advancing cold front early this morning. The fog will clear by mid-morning as cold front departs into Indiana by 11 am. High pressure will quickly pass through the Midwest tonight, and southerly winds will be in place by Sunday morning and become a bit gusty.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY TAKE CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING FLORIDA GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. AND A STRONG DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WEAKER AND FASTER WHICH WOULD LEAVE THE RIDGE MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
1239 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CHARGE TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS IS STARTING TO NOSE IN AND WE ARE HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE SATURATING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY AND IT WILL BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT HOWEVER THE WIND SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH MIXING THAT TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERALL WARMER READINGS AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION. WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN INCREASING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
SOME LOWS MAY DIP BRIEFLY TO THE FREEZING LATE TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS, BUT, SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGS MOST AREAS, EXPECT ANY FREEZING TEMPS THAT OCCUR TO BE SHORT-LIVED.
A cold front will start to move through the area late tonight, affecting SE NM TAF sites around 09-10Z, and continuing to progress slowly south through the morning hours. /issued 139 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016/ Upper ridge over the area will keep the wx unseasonably warm.
DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS.