Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1251 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 (Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures will be the main story for today as most areas will be back in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
232 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 (Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Messy upper-level pattern continues this evening as the low slowly pushes further east in the eastern Great Lakes. However, periods of isolated to scattered light showers with some convergence on the backside of this exiting system and ahead of another trough working its way across the Upper Midwest will be possible across southern WI tonight through Monday. Clearing along the lake looks to continue through the remainder of the afternoon, but the lower clouds are expected to spread eastward through the evening as the low pushes east.
Forecast soundings suggest a good proxy for greater precipitation probs will be in the area of cooler 600mb cold air advection rates. Interesting transition of the upper level low height anomaly across the northern tier of the contiguous U. Now, Southeast Michigan is showing more of a ridging component overhead with closed low over Cleveland area and another nosing across southern Lower Michigan.
Given the tranquil weather this evening, the forecast is on track and requires no updates this evening! Another chilly night in store as temperatures drop to near the freezing mark under clear skies. An upper ridge will build over British Columbia through the week ahead as an upper low develops over the Great Basin. A weak upper trough might touch off some showers over the Cascades Monday afternoon.
919 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front will cross the area late tonight.
621 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front will cross the area late tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 80 53 76 54 / 0 0 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 76 51 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 46 76 50 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 71 46 69 47 / 0 0 0 20 20.
933 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Persistent upper level low pressure provides chances for showers through Monday.
604 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Persistent upper level low pressure provides chances for showers through Monday.
641 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A low pressure system is hovering over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. There is a cold front associated with a short wave on the back side of this system that is moving through Kansas. Highlight: Cooler The cooler air will arrive to start to the work/school week with daytime highs falling roughly 10 to 15 degrees from today. High temperatures on Monday are still forecast to be in the low to mid 60s which is right about seasonal normal.
A cold front will move into KABI 11-12Z and through southern terminals. A cold front could reach KSJT by 18Z tomorrow afternoon.
633 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Low clouds and light precipitation persist this afternoon as latest in series of closed upper lows gradually shifts off to the east.
814 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 High pressure promoting benign weather across the Tennessee Valley region with dry conditions and a clear sky in place. Upper level height rises will occur on Monday as the ridge to the west pushes further east. Additionally, on Monday another upper level closed low will move into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes. A frontal boundary will move southeastward across the central and southern Plains in advance of this upper level closed low.
710 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Persistent upper level low pressure provides chances for showers through Monday.
632 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 (This evening through Monday) A cold front will move northwest to southeast across Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
632 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 High pressure will slowly move to the east through period with southerly flow returning for the most of the terminals.
743 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Isolated showers expected over the eastern Midlands and CSRA as a weak cold front moves across the region.
Wrapping around this low is a large trowal feature, which with its isentropic lift, has allowed for rain showers to spread over the region today. With the lingering moisture at the low levels and a healthy inversion in the low levels, I don't expect us being able to mix out any of the moisture.
A cold front will be moving through the TAF sites this evening and overnight, resulting in a wind shift to the NE. Wind speeds remain below critical levels and will gradually decrease though the rest of the afternoon with weakening pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold front. Shallow front likely will hang up in the terrain to some degree Monday with another warm afternoon to the south, and temps notably cooler across northeast OK and far northwest AR.
While shallow overturning prompted by the outflow boundary is producing isolated shower scattered light rain showers over the western Straits, there is still more than a little aloft that has yet to be tapped from the Lower Keys westward. A few strong wind gusts are possible, although more likely further down toward the Lower Keys out through Dry Tortugas, away from the deeper loss of bouyancy across the upper Keys.
509 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Mean upper level troughing will dominate the period, supporting below normal temps with unsettled and breezy conds. Splitting upper trough supporting a round of PVA this afternoon, with steep lapse rates allowing convective rain/snow showers. Closed low over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, will support another arm of PVA into the area Monday, with another round of sct snow showers in the afternoon. Cool, breezy, and increasingly unsettled weather can be expected the remainder of the week, with a late week storm possibly affecting a portion of the FA as the western NOAM upper trough moves east. Too much uncertainty remains in storm evolution (given a closed upper trough) to be able to confidently forecast any snow amounts at this time.
Light rain and drizzle will continue through the rest of the day today and gradually begin to wind down late this evening as the upper level low pressure that has been spinning across north central Indiana moves into Ohio. A secondary low pressure remains parked across the far Upper Midwest which will hamper the ability for high pressure to build during the day tomorrow. Some high resolution model guidance is showing that the exiting low pressure system may interact weakly with the system up in Minnesota to bring down a stream of moisture and upper level forcing that manifests in areas of light rain across the northeastern counties. anchored by two upper level low pressure systems.
737 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Periodic shower chances will continue through mid week with crossing upper level lows. Best precipitation coverage should occur during the afternoon hours as cold low pressure overhead, combined with peak daytime heating, supports the greatest potential for deeper convection given available instability.
The low pressure responsible for all the precipitation was centered over northern Indiana as of this writing, with only residual low clouds remaining as bouts of moisture and lift continued to wrap around the system. Thankfully, the dividing line between overcast and full sunshine was not too far away to the west, along with much more pleasant temperatures with drier air and subsidence not too far behind the low. Any rain showers left over from the departing low pressure will exit the area this afternoon. However, drier air from the high pressure looks to prevail. Skies will be mostly clear Monday night with high pressure centered just to the southwest in eastern Kansas. This will help lows drop into the 30s, with values near freezing possible along the HWY 20 corridor in eastern Iowa.
Increasing short wave subsidence and drier air in the low to mid levels should help to end the light showers later tonight. Kavinsky (Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Messy upper-level pattern continues this evening as the low slowly pushes further east in the eastern Great Lakes. However, periods of isolated to scattered light showers with some convergence on the backside of this exiting system and ahead of another trough working its way across the Upper Midwest will be possible across southern WI tonight through Monday. Clearing along the lake looks to continue through the remainder of the afternoon, but the lower clouds are expected to spread eastward through the evening as the low pushes east.
A cold front will arrive around sunrise with gusty northeast winds in its wake. After today, the warmer temps will take a backseat for much of the region as a cold front rolls south through the Panhandle, bisecting the northern half of the area by tomorrow morning.
1010 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front sliding through the region this evening will push offshore overnight.
The cold front has pushed into northeast OK over the past 1-2 hours and will continue south overnight before stalling in the terrain of southeast OK/northwest AR late tonight.
617 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Cold front has pushed into our western forecast area, and will continue eastward through the early evening, on leading edge of a mid-upper level wave currently spinning through the western Dakotas. Clouds decrease behind the showers later tonight, but the breezy winds will hold temperatures in the lower-mid 30s.
1032 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Low pressure will track east through the Lower Great Lakes and keep some form of scattered shower activity in the Ohio Valley through early Monday, then end from southwest to northeast during the day. A weak ridge of high pressure will then lay out from the Plains towards Kentucky through mid week, bringing dry weather.
549 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Overview: Speedy westerly flow aloft /the west express/ will prevail over the Central Plains in this period -- on the southern periphery of a broad, west-east elongated upper low situated over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains/Northern MS River Valley.
/Issued 233 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021/ A cold front continues to moves southeastward through central Georgia this afternoon. Precipitation chances should come to an end tonight as the cold front clears the forecast area to the southeast. The remainder of the area is behind the cold front, with clear skies and seasonal temperatures expected to continue through the end of the day. Broad upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface is currently building over much of the region, which is expected to remain in place over the region through the end of the short term period. Underneath the ridge and these clear skies, high temperatures will also range from 5-10 degrees above average across the forecast area, rising into mainly into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.
644 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front passing through the area today is bringing cooler and drier air in behind it which will remain in place over the next couple of days.
This rain will dissipate by midnight, then mostly dry for a few hours before a cold front moves through the area late tonight into Monday morning. Overnight temps settle in the low to mid 60s. South winds veer north behind the front by Monday morning, then quickly veer onshore as high pressure builds in Monday afternoon. Unfortunately, cooler temps are not accompanying this front. Highs on Monday are forecast to reach the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. A cold front will cross the local waters overnight, causing winds to become NW/N by sunrise Monday north of Sebastian Inlet, then the front pushes south of Jupiter Inlet by late Monday morning. High pressure quickly builds in causing winds to veer onshore by Monday afternoon.
718 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Scattered to numerous light showers will continue to rotate northwest into the area around low pressure. Forecast soundings suggest a good proxy for greater precipitation probs will be in the area of cooler 600mb cold air advection rates. Interesting transition of the upper level low height anomaly across the northern tier of the contiguous U. Now, Southeast Michigan is showing more of a ridging component overhead with closed low over Cleveland area and another nosing across southern Lower Michigan.
227 PM PDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Well above average temperatures Monday as the ridge of high pressure aloft remains in place.
636 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A vertically stacked upper-level closed low and occluded surface cyclone are expected to continue filling and weakening overnight as they progress slowly northeastward away from the forecast area. On Monday, another upper-level closed low is forecast to move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, forcing a very weak cold front through the forecast area Monday morning. Despite weak CAA behind the cold front, solar insolation through scattered upper- level clouds should enable temps to still warm to around or slightly below average. Pfahler Global model guidance is in much better agreement with the movement and evolution of the upper-level closed low across the northern tier of the U. during the middle of the week and have the closed low slowly traversing the Great Lakes en route to the Northeast by late week.
641 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 High pressure is moving off to the east and south to southeast winds will be the rule in this TAF period, although these winds will generally be very light tonight. A shallow cold front is expected to stall just northwest of the forecast area in Oklahoma.
Expect dry and cool conditions tonight as high pressure remains in control. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: Tonight looks to be quite pleasant, though with high pressure remaining in control and skies clear to partly cloudy with humidity still seasonably low, we likely have lows a bit below normal overnight. Monday morning begins in the lower 50s F for most but we warm up quickly during the day as light southerly winds and mid April sun combine to rebound our afternoon highs into the lower 80s F. Significant diurnal mixing prevents our dewpoints from moving up much and will likely only be in the lower 50s F through the day. Flow aloft remains mostly zonal through the day with a bit of a northerly component, downstream of a a ridge axis centered roughly about the Arklatex.
747 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Low pressure will track east through the Lower Great Lakes and keep some form of scattered shower activity in the Ohio Valley through early Monday, then end from southwest to northeast during the day. A weak ridge of high pressure will then lay out from the Plains towards Kentucky through mid week, bringing dry weather.
722 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A weak cold front will continue to move east this afternoon, sparking a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. High pressure builds in this evening and will bring showers to an end early.
158 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Fair and dry weather expected early this week with above normal temperatures with high pressure and northwesterly flow over the region. Chances of rain increase Wed/Thu as an upper trough dives southeast from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region and pushes a cold front through our area. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected late in the week into the weekend. Upper disturbance moving through our region early this morning, with an upper low moving SE through the Mid Atlantic today and tonight, will lead to a dry NW flow aloft for our region.
221 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A mainly sunny and warmer day is ahead as we sit under high pressure. The low pressure center that tracked to our north and created gusty winds yesterday had moved well away from our area, so winds will be much lighter today.
Some associated mid-level height falls continue across our area as the trough axis, in a more-or-less neutral tilt continues to trek eastward with the parent low. Even so, an attendant cold front is working its way through the FL panhandle and down the peninsula. The ridge axis will shift eastward fairly quick, meaning the winds will also shift according.
318 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 No hopping off the upper low train just yet as once more a digging trough morphs into an expansive closed upper low over the Dakotas and Minnesota early this morning. A frontogenetic-driven band of showers associated with this upper low stretches from ND into southwest MN. The negatively tilted surface/upper lows will become better phased as the day wears on, with a small north/south displacement by afternoon.
337 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Cold front currently near a KMLC - KFYV line and is making slow progress southward as upstream pressure rises are increasingly focused westward. The cold front will push more southward on Tuesday in wake of the passing weak wave with the entire forecast area experiencing a period of below normal temperatures which will likely persist through the remainder of the forecast.
1101 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A pretty inactive period expected for the forseeable future, as surface ridging becomes the predominant surface pattern. This sweet spot between the two ridges has allowed for the area to warm well into the 70s most everywhere, with perhaps a smattering of 80 degree temperatures south of I-70 toward EC Kansas or WC MO. By this evening a cold front will move through the area, bringing steady cold air advection for several hours post passage. Expecting near steady daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the week, as that surface ridging pattern remains in place. The next chance for rain comes late this week, as a weak trough pushes from NW to SE through the area.
358 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 The resident closed low pressure system rotates slowly across Lake Erie today while sustaining showers in a range of coverage across SE MI. Coverage to the north then decreases this afternoon as the larger northern Plains upper level low shears eastward into the Midwest. The corridor of dry air is shown to hold through the day while a reinforcing cold front approaches from the west.
/GG/ Expect dry and cool conditions tonight as high pressure remains in control. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: Tonight looks to be quite pleasant, though with high pressure remaining in control and skies clear to partly cloudy with humidity still seasonably low, we likely have lows a bit below normal overnight. Monday morning begins in the lower 50s F for most but we warm up quickly during the day as light southerly winds and mid April sun combine to rebound our afternoon highs into the lower 80s F. Significant diurnal mixing prevents our dewpoints from moving up much and will likely only be in the lower 50s F through the day. Flow aloft remains mostly zonal through the day with a bit of a northerly component, downstream of a a ridge axis centered roughly about the Arklatex.
1203 AM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Overview: Speedy westerly flow aloft /the west express/ will prevail over the Central Plains in this period -- on the southern periphery of a broad, west-east elongated upper low situated over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains/Northern MS River Valley.
with afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Upper low that brought soggy weather to central Illinois this past weekend has slowly shifted northeastward to near Lake Erie early this morning. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery shows back edge of cloud cover associated with the low persisting across the NE KILX CWA. Thanks to the sunshine, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy across the southern two-thirds of the CWA, which will keep temps slightly warmer than previously expected. As an upper low evident on latest water vapor imagery over the northern Plains digs into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a cooler/drier airmass will settle into central Illinois for much of this week.
303 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 (Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021) Today through Tuesday: Low pressure sitting over SE MI and an approaching system has enhanced the deformation axis over WI. However, we can expect the better precip chances to shift northward as the trough spreads in today with much of the activity focused over central to northern WI. Drier air streaming into the lower levels will help to erode some of the lower clouds today. This will translate into highs about 10 degrees cooler for Tuesday. Pieces of upper level energy rotating around the base of the trough should work with the steeper lapse rates to produce some isolated afternoon showers on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday):Mid-level high pressure traverses the state today as a stationary front south of the Rio Grande weakens and dissipates over the next 24 hours. Temperature guidance trends a few degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 80s RGV to mid 90s west. Lower clouds increase and some patchy coastal fog is possible with temperatures lowering into the lower 70s approaching the elevated dew points.
256 AM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Cyclonic flow will prevail today thanks to an upper low over the northern plains. On Tuesday we will be sandwiched between an upper low over the Great Lakes area and one digging southward over the west into Nevada. Model solutions have been moving the position of the low around, which is resulting in changes in the probability of precipitation and precipitation amounts.
321 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A showery and seasonably cooler early-spring weather pattern will plague central Pennsylvania this week. Expect shower coverage to ramp up today as a closed upper low moves over the Commonwealth. Highs trend anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday generally ranging in the mid 50s to low 60s. Loss of diurnal heating combined with increasing subsidence and ridging aloft behind departing closed low should result in decreasing coverage of showers tonight.
1050 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Cold front has pushed into our western forecast area, and will continue eastward through the early evening, on leading edge of a mid-upper level wave currently spinning through the western Dakotas. Clouds decrease behind the showers later tonight, but the breezy winds will hold temperatures in the lower-mid 30s. Coldest air of this week settles into the Dakotas Monday night into Tuesday, as upper low swings southeast through the upper Mississippi Valley. Given the proximity of the upper low, cannot rule out a few light showers scraping our far northeast counties with some shallow instability developing with diurnal heating Tuesday, but sub-cloud layer may too dry to allow rain to reach the surface, so will leave pops out for now. Temperatures both Monday night and Tuesday show good potential to fall below freezing.
Otherwise, we expect a cold front to roll through the Big Country this morning. Temperatures will be much cooler across the Big Country.
Today Through Tuesday Night Early this morning, a cold front was located from north central through west central Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma.
Split upper flow leading to closed lows over the northern states and this pattern persists through the bulk of the week.
An upper level low will continue to spin just to our north through the day, and may see a few light showers/sprinkles north of Interstate 29 in the afternoon and evening as a vort lobe rotates through the area. High temperatures will climb only into the upper 40s through the Highway 14 corridor to lower to mid 50s across the remainder of the CWA. With the massive upper level low centered over Minnesota, and the unusually cold thermal profiles, cannot rule out some instability showers over southwestern MN in the afternoon/evening.
The warmer of these temperatures will be in the southern part of central Kentucky, while the cooler temperatures will be in the northern parts of the CWA.
The accompanying upper trough continues to move southeast and is now over the Dakotas, which will also work to push the sfc front southeast for the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Cooler conditions will be in place for the rest of the week starting tomorrow with somewhat breezy northerly winds and weak CAA still in play. Cloud trends may not allow for as much radiational cooling as last night, but with the cooler air mass, lows are still forecast between 33 and 39 degrees so will need to monitor the potential for frost formation.
Light northerly winds will keep temperatures at or below normal across the area today and tonight with highs in the low 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.