Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure has been steadily building into our area over the past 24 hours. A cold front is to our south and light showers developed just southeast of our counties.
The better chances for seeing this shallow fog will be generally south of the highway 60 corridor or where the heaviest rainfall occurred yesterday. As the aforementioned H5 impulse continues eastward on Sunday, much of the CWFA will remain dry with the highest probability of showers/storms residing right along the Arkansas and Oklahoma borders. The pesky northwest flow due to the upper level ridge over Texas will begin to flatten and become more southwesterly as the ridge begins to slide eastward across the southern tier states.
A weak ridge of high pressure situated over the southern and eastern Great Lakes should settle over the region tonight and tomorrow and most of Sunday. The ridge should begin to slowly break down Sunday night, as an area of low pressure begins to displace it from the south and southeast. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be slightly below normal as well, with readings in the lower 60s expected each night.
On Sunday the ridge will be a little stronger, but the flow aloft will remain northwesterly aloft.
The aforementioned weak cold front will remain across the southern Big Country or northern Concho Valley on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s across the Big Country which will be behind the front, to the mid 90s to near 100 across the rest of the area.
With the clouds not arriving until late, dry dew points, and light winds, the low temperatures for tonight were lowered. A warm front will lift north across the region. It continues to look like the best chance for showers and isolated storms will remain along and ahead of the cold front.
A cold front will move through the area this evening and become stationary across the Carolinas early in the week. Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds through mid week.
Still think that with heating this morning, additional afternoon pcpn development is possible from Devils Lake down through the Wahpeton and Breckenridge area. Some of the high resolution models show development even further east, but will keep that area dry for now, and later shifts can monitor that possibility. The low level jet shifts into the eastern Dakotas tonight, and the models differ slightly on where its best focus will be. Total pcpn amounts for the entire today through Sunday night period could range from 1 to 2 inches, but thinking the higher end amounts will need slow moving or training storms. Dew point values have struggled to reach past the upper 50s lately, and precipitable water values stay on the lower end.
337 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Mid-level trough and an associated MCV were making steady progress across our Rolling Plains' counties this afternoon ahead of a distinct layer of subsidence. Barring some lingering showers off the Caprock early Sunday and a few afternoon storms near the NM state line, much of the day looks to be uneventful as transient upper ridging overspreads the area. This story should hold until Sunday evening when the next trough in westerly flow arrives from the Colorado Plateau.
245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 High pressure and dry weather building into the region from the north and northwest at this time, though still have some residual moisture across southern KY likely to spark showers/storms for another hour or two. With the proximity of the high to us, expect a weak north to northeast wind tonight.
312 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 232 PM CDT A broad upper level trough continues to swing across the Great Lakes this afternoon.
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Low pressure will drag a trailing cold front through New England Sunday morning.
Otherwise, we're awaiting the next cold front which will move into the central Idaho mountains late Sunday afternoon.
345 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A slow moving cold front will push southeast through the commonwealth late today.
Moisture transport in the low levels is pretty limited given the high pressure in control over northeast KS, so have removed pops for the afternoon in our southern areas. Similar to today, a mix of diurnal cumulus and high clouds combine with highs in the lower 80s. Bottom line is that it looks to be another active and potentially wet week for parts of the region until the trough axis passes (if it does) sometime late week into the weekend.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the region with a trough to the north.
218 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Cold front and showers exit the mountains this evening. High pressure crosses to north Sunday.
222 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
/ISSUED 844 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/ A weak cold front has moved off the coast and high pressure over eastern CO was slowing pushing south.
347 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Cloudy day is anticipated today for Central Illinois, as a north/south orientation of upper level flow just to the west puts the region in the axis of an upper trof. This same wave digs into the western coast of the CONUS, and kicks the upper low currently in the Gulf of California out and across the southern tier of the country.
341 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 Satellite imagery shows a decent sized trough swinging across the Great Plains resulting in a clipper system shifting across the Lower Missouri River Valley early this morning.
1020 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 Latest surface observations show a cold front stretches from near Augusta GA to Perry FL and over the eastern and southern Gulf of Mexico. The low rain chances are diminishing across the north - Orlando northward - but isolated showers will remain possible especially from Okeechobee to the Treasure coast into the overnight. Behind the front, low temperatures will cool into the lower 50s north of I-4 with mid to upper 50s elsewhere, except lower 60s coastal Martin. A cold front will push across central Florida overnight tonight into Saturday morning with some short-duration (3 hr) MVFR/IFR CIGs possible as it does so. Southerly flow this evening will veer rapidly out of the NW behind a cold front by sunrise. Much drier air is expected to move into central Florida behind a cold front this weekend.
A glaze of freezing rain is possible as the rain begins over the higher terrain, especially over north-central PA.
Some stratocu associated with wrap around moisture near the upper low has been filtering in across north GA and could linger until late morning/early afternoon.
Across the Plains, northerly winds behind a cold front will just bring a wind shift, with a lack of cooler air behind it.
The latest NAM12 model wants to generate some isolated rain shower activity along the Colorado border, however we will not be carrying any POPs as the low levels will simply be too dry for any measurable precipitation.
Feasible that patchy fog could hang on along the glacial ridge or in the northern reaches of the Thumb until that time.
/issued 734 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020/ A strong, occluded cyclone continues to move to the east across the OH Valley this evening. West winds around 10 mph will gradually diminish late, with temperatures eventually falling into the lower 30s. A deep upper low is situated just north of the Mid- South. Any threat of rain will end by early this evening as the upper low starts to pull away. Lows will be in the lower 30s with a diminishing west wind. Mean upper trough will remain over the eastern U.
A large expanse of clouds on the backside of the upper trough were gradually eroding from west to east across central Kansas this afternoon.
934 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 A weak upper level system pinwheeling eastward, and south of a primary upper low over the western Ohio Valley, in part brought additional lower level clouds and a few light rain showers in the late afternoon and early evening. Colder air filtering in from the WNW will help cool overnight low temperatures into the low to maybe a few mid 30s. Winds may be a bit more gusty in more exposed locations and in the higher terrain. Dry and cool weather returns on Saturday as high pressure moves back into the region. Highs in the mid to upper 40s and overnight lows in the lower 30s with partly clouds skies.
Expect dry weather and warmer than average daytime temperatures through the weekend.
Currently, the majority of the area remains stuck under a stratus deck on the the back side of a stacked upper level low moving over Illinois. Lingering cloud cover on Saturday may put a bit of a damper on temperatures, but we should still end up 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today with highs ranging from the low 30s to upper 40s from northeast to southwest.
High clouds will stream back into the state from the southwest after 21z ahead of the next low pressure system but VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
By afternoon, the snow will be in far eastern Illinois with only a dusting expected since temperatures will remain above freezing during the day. The clouds will keep temps above freezing today, but below freezing temps will return tonight as slightly colder air moves into the area. However, with the eastern half of the US still in a broad trough, a short wave drops through the area early in the week. Visby's will increase, as well as lifting ceilings, during the afternoon as the Low pushes ne away from the region.
Little change in the pattern is expected through the end of the week, with widespread cloud cover expected to persist through he end of the week with little in the way to scour out the low-level moisture and stratus.
220 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Quiet the interesting weather pattern at the moment, with a pronounced and somewhat rare (by January standards) nearly stacked low/mid level cyclone meandering very slowly northeastward through the lower Great Lakes.
Moisture pooling ahead of a cold front sliding southward will provide BR and ST with TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR TIL 14Z. /issued 648 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020/ Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing drier air aloft filling into northern Florida behind a cold front that is on track to move through the forecast area overnight through Saturday morning. A cold front will move southeast through the coastal waters overnight, with isolated to scattered showers gradually diminishing by Saturday morning.
Boundary is forecast to start sliding east Saturday morning as weak cold front approaches, helping to push low level moisture east of the region. Upper ridging is building across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains.
/EC/ The mid/upper-level trough axis swung through the region today with skies gradually clearing in its wake. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure is forecast to slide into the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and will be centered along the Mississippi River by daybreak. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Expect clearing skies tonight as the low moves away from the area, and high pressure builds in. Lows tonight should drop to near or just below freezing for the majority of the forecast area, so there may be the possibility of some freezing fog where fog becomes dense enough. Expect dry weather Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
354 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Low pressure and its associated cold front will move through this morning. High pressure then builds in behind the front for the second half of the weekend.
Temperatures are on track to reach the low 30s in many places tonight.
The upper level closed low will edge eastward from Lake MI to Lake Ontario over the next 24 hours as wrap around moisture reaches far enough south to keep chances of precipitation in the forecast through much of Saturday. There is also a slight chance of brief freezing drizzle across our northern counties, but ground temperatures remain warm enough to keep surfaces wet.
133 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 An area of showers is currently moving across the area associated with the upper low that has provided the rain the last two days. That upper low is lifting northeastward out of the Midwest toward the Great Lakes. Temperatures remain above freezing even on the plateau at the moment. LAPS soundings from the plateau show the lowest 250-500 meters still above freezing. With that said, as temperatures continue to cool a couple degrees and the entire column drops below freezing, a few snow flakes may mix in before moisture moves off the plateau this morning. The entire area should drop below freezing tonight with some breaks in the cloud cover.
1225 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 A cold front will push offshore tonight followed by high pressure. The cold front is quickly approaching the I-95 corridor and will push into the coastal waters over the next few hours. The updated forecast shows lows from the lower 40s in the Millen to Reidsville corridor to the lower 50s from North Charleston to Hilton Head-Tybee Island and points east.
Southwest to westerly winds will become breezy this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will shift winds to the northwest Saturday evening.
1111 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion VFR through the night, with CIGs to lower to MVFR levels through the day SAT as a weak coastal trough lifts north over the region.
1031 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 A cold front expected to push through the area tonight.
Upper closed low early this afternoon was located near St. For tonight, the upper low will slowly lift away from the region.
Surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure over the Dakotas extending down into KS and OK. Models all pretty much show moisture depth decreasing with time, but vary on how fast they break up the low clouds. The 12Z GFS seemed to be one of the more aggressive models with decrease of the low clouds, and thus has the lowest values for suggested lows. Meanwhile, recent versions of the RAP model keep lows much warmer.
Due to temperatures near to just above freezing, the snowfall is only amounting to an additional light dusting and impacts have been minimal since noon today. Tonight we will have to keep an eye temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20s and possible freezing of wet and slushy roads, especially across northern Missouri where they have had several rounds of accumulating snowfall over the past few days. Ongoing light snow will continue to wind down by this evening as the upper trough moves towards the Ohio River Valley and Lower Great Lakes region.
The aforementioned storm system will move through the area tonight and into tomorrow, with the highest rain chances focused across areas along and south of I-40 tonight.
1054 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 For the 06Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites Saturday morning into early afternoon with north winds behind this boundary. /Issued 541 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020/ For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites Saturday morning with north winds behind this boundary.
At onset, short waves/PV anomalies embedded in the long wave trough continue to spiral through the mid MS and OH River Valleys with deformation driving one last snow band SSW-NNE across central IA. There may be a dusting of additional accumulations on existing snow, but with minimal travel impacts as roads are generally wet with road temps above freezing. The light snow should diminish or end altogether heading into the early evening hours leading to cloudy skies and more patchy fog overnight as low level moisture and stratus remain trapped in widespread low level cyclonic flow between the MO Valley ridge and Great Lakes low pressure.
The upper low center lifting out of the eastern plains will leave a dirty northwest flow pattern in place over the central Rockies and central High Plains region through the weekend with several short wave troughs either skirting around or shearing out across the forecast area for periodic increases and decreases in cloud cover. This will move the cooler airmass out of the region and bring a warming trend to the central High Plains through the weekend.
The mid/upper-level trough axis swung through the region today with skies gradually clearing in its wake. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure is forecast to slide into the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and will be centered along the Mississippi River by daybreak. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Expect clearing skies tonight as the low moves away from the area, and high pressure builds in. Lows tonight should drop to near or just below freezing for the majority of the forecast area, so there may be the possibility of some freezing fog where fog becomes dense enough. Expect dry weather Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
Expect cloud cover though Saturday given the widespread cloud cover on satellite, current slow/meandering motion of the low in the Midwest, and model guidance showing low-level saturation.
Then the next weak and shearing warm front will develop with -RA overspreading the area from southwest to northeast during the day. with KMWH probably deteriorating back into IFR in the moist post frontla air mass after the warm front departs after 18Z.
The weather tonight through Saturday night will be dominated by a large, slow moving upper low pressure system that is over southern IL this afternoon.
The energy from this trough will begin to split this afternoon, with a portion heading northeast into MT and another to the southeast over northern UT/northwest CO.
Temperatures will remain around freezing to a couple degrees above today.
A narrow ridge of high pressure currently sits over our forecast area, sandwiched in between two low pressure systems. After the fog dissipates later this afternoon, the next thing to watch will be a weak clipper type system and associated mid-level s/w trough. BUFKIT profiles do show a gradual saturation of the column with time as the warmer air translates into the area, especially off the sfc. This warm nose in the low-mid levels with sfc temps just below freezing could provide for a scenario of a wintry mix(light fzra/ice pellets/snow) to play out late this aftn into this evening from the James valley and points east.
RAP H5 analysis indicated an upper low meandering toward the Northeastern U. While the Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows some erosion of current clouds across Nrn portions of MS/AL, a lower deck of clouds is advecting toward the area in the wake of the departing upper low (currently over Middle TN), and will arrive in the next 1-2 hours. The overall trend should continue to be clearing (to become partly cloudy) through the day with CAA in place and high pressure building into the area. Tonight will remain partly cloudy and a few degrees cooler than this morning, bottoming out in the upper 20s/lower 30s in the E, and the lower 30s W.
High pressure will bring warmer and dry conditions through the weekend.
Nearly zonal flow aloft will be interrupted late today by the passage of a weak upper level short wave trough that will bring little more than a surface wind shift to the forecast area.
Low clouds rotating around upper low and passing through the eastern Tennessee Valley beginning to rise to VFR levels last hour.
Areas of dense freezing fog over the eastern parts of the forecast will gradually dissipate early this morning as a weak surface boundary pushes the low level moisture off to the east. Breezy to windy northwest winds will develop as a weak surface from moves through in association with the upper trough. Quiet weather and slightly warmer than average temperatures will continue on Sunday.
This along with developing isentropic lift will lead to likely showers across the area with the highest chances east. Cloud cover will decrease through the day with warmer temperatures in the mid and upper 70s.
An upper level trough extending from the low to the south will remain overhead today and keep light snow and patchy freezing drizzle possible across northwest Wisconsin through the day today before becoming confined to the Iron/Ashland County snowbelt area tonight. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler in the middle 20s to lower 30s.
As this system passes, a weak cold front will move into the area overnight, but likely wash out somewhere across the Permian Basin by Sunday morning.
The snow will gradually end tonight as the low pressure area moves north away from the area. Travel issues should be limited through today with temperatures generally above freezing although some roads will likely become slushy and inhibit travel some. An upper low was near the Michigan and Indiana border early this morning and moving north. The system was occluding, but there was still plenty of moisture wrapping around into the back side of the low. The large area of snow will curve into northern Indiana as the upper low will drifts north today.
and Sunday Light snow will gradually diminish to drizzle or freezing drizzle today as low pressure over Lake Michigan moves slowly away. Temperatures will likely rise above freezing in most places this afternoon and allow for some melting. Leftover low level moisture and cyclonic flow may result in some light snow or freezing drizzle this evening as temperatures fall to freezing.
The upper level closed low will edge eastward from Lake MI to Lake Ontario over the next 24 hours as wrap around moisture reaches far enough south to keep chances of precipitation in the forecast through much of Saturday. There is also a slight chance of brief freezing drizzle across our northern counties, but ground temperatures remain warm enough to keep surfaces wet. Colder air will continue to advect in from the west, which will bring Sunday morning mins down to below freezing ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. The first half of Sunday still looks dry with the forecast area between an upper low over the Northeast and a weak wave upstream.
As the trough passes east early Sunday morning low level flow will veer west to northwest, allowing isentropic downglide to develop and drier air to filter into the region. Despite the weak cold front passage, temperatures on Sunday will be warmer than today. Highs today are forecast to be in the 60s and on Sunday in the low to mid 70s.
Some stratocu associated with wrap around moisture near the upper low has been filtering in across north GA and could linger until late morning/early afternoon. Temps should be slightly warmer than today and near climo norms.
Patchy freezing fog early this morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies by later this morning.
As upper trof approaches and an area of llvl speed convergence zone sets up, expect increasing shower and isolated tstm development across most of southeast Texas heading thru the late evening hours.
317 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 RAP H5 analysis indicated an upper low meandering toward the Northeastern U. While the Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows some erosion of current clouds across Nrn portions of MS/AL, a lower deck of clouds is advecting toward the area in the wake of the departing upper low (currently over Middle TN), and will arrive in the next 1-2 hours. The overall trend should continue to be clearing (to become partly cloudy) through the day with CAA in place and high pressure building into the area. Tonight will remain partly cloudy and a few degrees cooler than this morning, bottoming out in the upper 20s/lower 30s in the E, and the lower 30s W.
A weak warm front will lift north today up to central Missouri, which should bring afternoon highs into the upper 30s and lower 40s today. Will need to monitor the potential for patchy black ice early Sunday morning as any melting snow during the day will refreeze tonight as surface temps average near the lower to mid 20s. Still warmer temps are expected Sunday, which should continue the snow-melting trend through the weekend.