Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
120 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. Lawrence Valley into northern New England ridging south into the Mid-Atlantic region. Aloft, mid- upper level ridge axis remains oriented just to the west.
240 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and mainly dry weather through Wednesday afternoon.
338 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Stagnant weather pattern continues under a region of general high pressure, with basically little change to the forecast. While temperatures Wednesday will be similar to today, a bit more moisture makes it into our area as the high center shifts to our east. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east coast tonight.
The ridge to the northeast builds southwest into portions of the CWA on Wednesday.
259 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. Just about as quiet as it gets with high pressure remaining in control.
Clearing skies tonight will lead to near record low temperatures for this time of year with lows in the low to mid 20s across western Montana. The higher elevation valleys of southwest Montana and the colder valleys of northwest Montana could see temperatures in the teens. For the lower elevations of central Idaho, temperatures will be getting close to freezing which could impact vegetation. Starting Wednesday, an upper level low sitting over southern Idaho will begin to move north and will bring an increase in clouds and some light rain showers in the afternoon.
530 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Expecting more showers and storms to pop up going into late this afternoon/evening as the cold front pushes into the area. Latest CAMs (Convection Allowing Models) showing the cold front and associated showers/storms pushing southeast out of the area by 10 pm or so. Clearing expected then from the northwest to southeast after midnight as the front clears the area and high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. A cooler/drier/mostly sunny day on tap for Wednesday as that area of high pressure drifts overhead.
1115 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Positive tilted trough extending from southern Canada, southwest towards the southwest CONUS.
300 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will remain overhead through Wednesday.
531 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper level ridge axis remains just to the north and west of the area.
311 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 A cold front was bisecting Kansas early this afternoon with post-frontal temperatures in the 50s & 60s.
The weak cold front that will move into northern Oklahoma tonight/tomorrow will retreat back north as a ridge aloft rebuilds over the southern Plains.
135 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper level ridge axis remains just to the north and west of the area. Temperatures rising into the lower 80s most locations.
Currently, the CWA is between two mid/upper lows seen on GOES 16 WV imagery early this afternoon. The first low which caused our wintery precipitation yesterday is located over northern ND while yet another strong upper low is spinning over central CA. Brief ridging over the area this afternoon in between systems with generally sunny skies and warmer temps. As the upper low over CA shifts NE into ID Wednesday, SW flow aloft will increase over the area. While mid levels will remain dry, enough moisture in the low levels combined with upslope flow to produce extensive low clouds and possibly some drizzle by late tonight into tomorrow morning.
A ridge of high pressure will build into our region leading to a warming trend toward the end of the week. Temperatures in most spots have been and are continuing to run cooler than yesterday.
High pressure will continue to ridge southwestward from off the northeast U. An inverted upper level trough extends from central Cuba northward over the Bahamas. This trough will move westward over southwest Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.
WV imagery this afternoon was showing a positive tilt longwave trof extending from central Canada all the way past the U. a cold front extends from the western Great Lakes region to the OK panhandle. Thus, forecast for low temps in the lower 40s north may be a tad bit on the warm side.
1154 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Line of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front will exit the forecast area by 12z. Satellite however shows the low clouds lingering well behind the front, and latest HRRR shows a slow north to south progression of the clouds today.
429 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Surface analysis across the region features the dome of high pressure continuing to be anchored over the Appalachian Range and thus keeping eastern Kentucky under mostly clear skies, above normal temps, and relatively light winds. Otherwise, a warm, dry, and relatively cloud free forecast is on tap under a stubborn ridge of high pressure. The first couple of days will still be quiet as a weakening mid/upper level ridge persists over the southeast CONUS.
Area of Low Pressure is forecast to track across the Central Mountains on Wednesday.
A much cooler air mass will continue to spread southward across western Kansas tonight resulting in temperatures falling into the 40s(F) across west central Kansas with lows generally in the 50s(F) further south and east. The frontal boundary will be lifting north as upper level high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley retrogrades westward into the southern Plains.
1225 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Areas of MVFR conditions in low clouds are likely to linger across the far eastern plains through today as a back door cold front progresses slowly southwestward shifting winds out of the east and northeast.
Return flow around the high has kept winds out of the south in our region with generally fair weather. Some showers and thunderstorms have developed across far parts of western KY and southern IL along a Theta-E ridge/axis, but all of that activity should stay west of the region for the afternoon and evening. Upper level ridge currently centered over the Tennessee Valley will begin to slowly pivot and drift southwestward through the short term period. Clouds and precipitation associated with the 850mb/700mb Theta-E axis on the western side of the upper level ridge will also begin to pivot during this timeframe, and will take on a more east- west orientation than its current north-south orientation.
240 PM EDT Tue Oct 03 2017 Strong, Canadian high pressure initially centered over New England will moderate as it builds slowly south and off the middle Atlantic coast during the next few days. Dry ridge axis over the area will maintain clear skies overnight with near persistence low temperatures falling to match dew points tonight. a few mid 40s in cooler rural areas, but mostly ranging from upper 40s north to mid 50s in the southeast. Quiet weather with stacked dry ridge over the area and seasonable temperatures today will be with us a bit longer. With the high overhead, another mostly sunny day is on tap, with light winds and highs a couple of degrees warmer as we cut off the cool air advection and the airmass begins to modify.
649 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will move south of the region overnight. A cold front will approach later Wednesday then cross the region Wednesday night.
Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to be near normal in the lower 80s tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight will be well above normal in the lower 70s.
154 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. Lawrence Valley into northern New England ridging south into the Mid-Atlantic region. Aloft, mid- upper level ridge axis remains oriented just to the west.
A cold front will continue to slowly push across the state tonight. The front will be through the forecast area in the morning and other than lingering cloud cover south we should have a cooler and dry day. The upper low currently along the MT/ND border will continue pushing through the Great Lakes and Ontario into Wednesday resulting in more seasonal temperatures and dry conditions, at least during the evening. High pressure will exit into the night however leading to increasing warm/theta-e advection overnight through the MO Valley and eventually statewide through the day. 00z ECMWF and 12z GFS are in good agreement focusing convection and higher QPF amounts along a central Iowa warm front around Thu.
121 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east coast tonight.
*Breezy, Gusty winds expected along ridgetops for the Cascades, Coastal Mountains, and the Siskiyous. This warming and drying trend is expected to continue as the blocking pattern builds. The main changes to forecast are the overnight low temperatures for tonight as well as for the winds along the ridgetops. The difference is that the air mass will be a little bit warmer as more sun has reached the ground this afternoon. As a result, the overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer. Isolated areas of freezing temperatures will be possible for our traditionally colder valleys, but these conditions shouldn't last too long.
High pressure will remain firmly entreched over the region, with perhaps a slight westward drift from its current position near DelMarVa. SLightly warmer low temps and some valley fog may be possible tonight as dewpoints are a little higher today compared to yesterday.
1140 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Fog is lifting/has lifted across the area while most temperatures have reached above freezing.
Southwest flow ahead of this low and trough was pushing abnormally warm/humid air into our area. At the surface, a cold front extended from the Arrowhead of MN through western IA. Expecting more showers and storms to pop up going into late this afternoon/evening as the cold front pushes into the area. Latest CAMs (Convection Allowing Models) showing the cold front and associated showers/storms pushing southeast out of the area by 10 pm or so. Clearing expected then from the northwest to southeast after midnight as the front clears the area and high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. A cooler/drier/mostly sunny day on tap for Wednesday as that area of high pressure drifts overhead.
244 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. Just about as quiet as it gets with high pressure remaining in control.
508 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
204 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
Patchy frost may occur, however with low temperatures forecasted at mainly in the middle 30s and such a small area of the northwest Sandhills to reach the lower 30s to forgo headlines. At 18Z (1 PM CT), an elongated area of high pressure extended from western Montana southeast into Nebraska. A weak boundary extended from the low over northwest North Dakota south and southwest into east central Wyoming. Wednesday the upper ridge axis builds east with a slight chance for rain to return by evening.
224 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 In the upper levels a closed low over CA extends northeast to another low over MT while an upper ridge remains over the eastern US. As the CA low lifts NE the ridge slides west under it. By Wednesday the ridge will be centered over TX stretching to the Pacific by the weekend.
A cool upper trough will remain across the northern and western Great Basin through Wednesday.
423 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Cold front made a slow southward progression today before coming to a halt near the Canadian River valley.
321 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 At 315 PM, a cold front was moving across northern Wisconsin and western Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the lower 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and in portions of northwest Wisconsin, to the 50s across much of northeast Minnesota. High pressure will continue to build into the Northland overnight, as a dry slot works its way across the region. Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day, with high pressure bringing dry westerly winds into the region. Highs will be a bit cooler, with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s by afternoon.
VFR flight rules with light southeast winds as high pressure dominates the weather in Middle TN.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday afternoon.
Then a lull in the rainfall threat is likely until much later tonight when a cold front starts to push into the area.
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through most of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend. High pressure extending over area from NE will produce fair conditions again this evening. High pressure will remain the dominant feature over region for the first half of the period bringing a prolonged period of mainly dry weather. The high centered to the north will shift SE offshore through late week but will continue to ridge into the area.
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will continue influence the region through Wednesday.
308 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Broad area of cyclonic flow across the western to north central CONUS remains with an upper low over ND and a second larger low over CA/NV. Temps tonight are expected to drop to near or below freezing across northeast Wyoming. The difficulty is knowing how far east the temps will reach freezing. There is enough of a chance of freezing temps pushing into south central SD that have issued a freeze warning all the way to Todd/Mellette counties. Return flow will set up Wednesday with warmer air pushing back in from the south. CA/NV upper low will push into MT late Wed into Thu. The upper low will stall out with a series of waves crossing the region within the southwest flow.
Upper low over NW North Dakota is slowly shifting northeastward and filling. Our main weather message for tonight is a first "hard freeze" for many locations at the lower elevations (28 degrees or lower for a few hours). However, another cut off upper low over Nevada will slowly lift northward and bring our western mountain zones under a divergent flow with increasing mid level moisture.
254 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Stagnant weather pattern continues under a region of general high pressure, with basically little change to the forecast. While temperatures Wednesday will be similar to today, a bit more moisture makes it into our area as the high center shifts to our east. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east coast tonight.
157 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Showers and even a few thunderstorms will become more numerous later tonight into Wednesday as a cold front sags into the area and then stall. Massive eastern US ridge to hold through today but low level return flow will allow increased moisture transport northward. Thermal profiles support highs in the lower 80s about everywhere today with warmest readings in the south. Continued moisture transport tonight along with height falls as ridge begins to retrograde and flatten as short wave energy ejecting from western low moves east. Models have come into better agreement with main upper low that begins to exit the western US late this week as Pacific jet energy dives south along west coast.
157 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure moves into north-central Montana tonight through Wednesday and will bring lighter winds and the potential fog development, especially where there is a deep snowpack. High pressure building in tonight will allow generally light winds beneath mostly clear skies. On Wednesday, a mid-level warm front will move north, bringing another chance of rain/snow to Southwest Montana and southern sections of Central Montana with light accumulations possible.
A deep upper trough over the western states that has been responsible for the winter weather of late will begin to weaken and split with one piece breaking off and moving toward the Great Lakes tonight. In the meantime, the vertically stacked low pressure was over western North Dakota this afternoon. The high center will move across the northern Plains Wednesday.
341 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Lingering showers from last night's heavy rainfall have mostly moved east of the area this afternoon, with a few lingering showers ongoing along the cold front across western WI. High pressure moves in behind this cold front bringing with it clearing skies, & at least a brief reprieve from the rainy weather for tonight & Wednesday. Highs around 60 & lows in the low- mid 40s on Wednesday will be seasonable for early October.
112 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Forecast concerns will be ongoing showers and thunderstorms and temperatures/winds at the cold front slowly slides southeast.
131 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure over Maine will dominate the local area through today. Low pressure will move east across the northern Great Lakes tonight forcing a weakening cold front to move east across the area Wednesday.
A deep low pressure system over NV will help to increase flow from the SW over portions of UT and CO through the short term period. Model soundings show some conditional inability in the mid levels but with high pressure over the eastern plains helping to keep a more moist stable layer in place that will inhibit heating expect weak convection to start later in the afternoon on the plains and slightly earlier in the mountains on Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than today with highs in the lower to mid 60s on the plains and 40s to 50s in the mountains.
119 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 18z TAF Issuance: Except for some breaks in the clouds across portions of the western Texas Panhandle near a stalling cold front, IFR/MVFR cigs and some patchy MVFR vsbys continue across the area. Cloud cover may decrease some along and south of the cold front with AMA having the best chance of breaking out late afternoon. Current obs show cold front from near Bootleg to Borger to Beaver still moving south but showing signs of slowing down. Instability values will be biggest question depending on how fast the low clouds clear out along/ahead of the front. An upper high to the east of the Panhandles and a closed upper low over the Great Basin region will allow for an active southwesterly flow pattern aloft today through the middle of this week.
345 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and mainly dry weather through Wednesday afternoon.
140 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2017 A deep trough centered over central California today will weaken and move northeast Wednesday.
Strong high pressure remains in place along the Eastern Seaboard, with northeast flow expected to continue overnight.
303 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Low to mid level south to southwesterly tropospheric flow prevails over the region today, in between a closed low pressure over the western CONUS and ridge to our east. Eventually, drier air over the southeast CONUS will retrograde back over our region with the mid level ridge, shifting the deep layer moist axis north and west with time.
330 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be lingering clouds and precipitation associated with the closed upper low tonight, along with freeze headlines southwest Wed AM. Currently, stacked low pressure centered over north central North Dakota this afternoon. CAA continues but will wash out as the low departs east this evening. Light rain continues to spiral around the low so will maintain POPs for the next several hours across my counties. High pressure slides southeast from eastern MT into southwestern ND tonight and this is where subsidence may contribute to greater clearing. Coupled with sfc Tds in the 20s expected temperatures here to drop to freezing and below. Elsewhere it is def possible for freezing temperatures but more uncertain with the forecast cloud cover.
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Showers and even a few thunderstorms will become more numerous later tonight into Wednesday as a cold front sags into the area and then stalls. The result during this time will be a trend toward cooler temperatures and diminishing shower chances.
A much cooler air mass will continue to spread southward across western Kansas tonight resulting in temperatures falling into the 40s(F) across west central Kansas with lows generally in the 50s(F) further south and east.
1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 This morning: The cold front is slowly moving southeast across the area with a broken line of rain and thunderstorms approximately from Columbus, NE southwest to Hill City, KS. An abundant amount of rain fell across portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska along and ahead of the cold front with reports of 3 to 4 inches of rain in some locations. Today: The cold front is expected to slowly continue to track southeast across the remainder of the area and into eastern Kansas during the day today. Temperatures will fall as the front moves through with temps behind the front continuing to be in the low 60s throughout the day.
625 PM EDT Tue Oct 03 2017 Strong, Canadian high pressure, initially centered over New England, will moderate as it builds slowly south and off the middle Atlantic coast during the next few days. Canadian high pressure extending across the region will maintain dry and seasonably cool conditions tonight. A gradual uptick in the low level moisture will lead to the development of shallow ground fog by morning, most of which will lift/dissipate within an hour of sunrise. Quiet weather with stacked dry ridge over the area and seasonable temperatures today will be with us a bit longer. With the high overhead, another mostly sunny day is on tap, with light winds and highs a couple of degrees warmer as we cut off the cool air advection and the airmass begins to modify.
This high, along with upper ridging in place from the Deep South to Mid Atlantic helped to bring mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer than normal conditions for this time of year, with highs rising into the mid 70s to low 80s.
343 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 The Hub City is currently situated between an upper level closed off low to the west and an upper level high pressure system to the east. This afternoon a cold front (currently just north of the area) will slowly drop south introducing a risk of precipitation for much of the area this evening. As the front drops south the upper high to our east will begin to nose westward towards while the upper level low simultaneously moves northeastward. Tomorrow PWs increase further as moisture continues to be wrapped around the upper high amd streamed over the area.
657 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Surface analysis across the region features the dome of high pressure continuing to be anchored over the Appalachian Range and thus keeping eastern Kentucky under mostly clear skies, above normal temps, and relatively light winds. Otherwise, a warm, dry, and relatively cloud free forecast is on tap under a stubborn ridge of high pressure. The first couple of days will still be quiet as a weakening mid/upper level ridge persists over the southeast CONUS.
453 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will move south of the region tonight. A cold front will approach later Wednesday then cross the region Wednesday night.