Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RA TO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 29/06Z AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND ROTATING ENERGY TO THE EAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THRUST OF CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE FROM A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 52 63 49 / 20 90 80 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 49 63 48 / 10 50 80 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 49 63 48 / 10 50 70 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 44 62 45 / 10 20 70 50.
1004 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
639 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 H5 PATTERN TONIGHT HAS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SWD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NWRN NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN. 00Z DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE MID-WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
918 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area through the week.
It should feel quite summer-like today as temperatures rise into the 70s to the lower 80s. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday to bring breezy conditions. High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions today. A cold front will bring breezy south to west winds on Wednesday.
943 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OFF TO OUR EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL ENHANCE W TO NW WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COMES WITH SURFACE THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST WILL COME INLAND AND THROUGH OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY BREEZY COOLER WX. MODELS AGREE ON A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1232 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ASSERT MORE CONTROL OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES. A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING WRN RIDGE. THAT WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS COOLER ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH EWD. SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED BETWEEN ABILENE AND LUBBOCK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DEEPER AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
951 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WITH BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE UP IN THE PHOENIX METRO AREA NORTH INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. ALL OF THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL QUICKLY CRASH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
653 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
214 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015 CLEARING AND COOLER EXCEPTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MID MORNING. STRONG NORTHLY JET BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING IN THE NORTH FACING KERN CO MOUNTAINS THIS AM WITH STRONG WINDS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJV AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE KERN CO MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. EPAC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL CALM THE WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING AND WE MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CENTRAL SJV LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY AS OUR WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE EPAC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER JET ACCOMPANY PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER AIR BEHIND AN APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS SW KS/OK PANHANDLE AND EJECTING ENE WHILST FILLING AS IT DEPARTS. DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IS UNDERPLAYING THE ISOTACHS AND WILL TREND CLOSER TO AND THE HIGHER END OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
508 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY.
/issued 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ A deepening mid level trof was initialized at 00Z/16 just inland of the w coast with a closed low forecast to quickly develop this morning INVOF NW AZ. Jet energy is anything but lacking with a 130kt@3h diving s on the backside of said trof/low. The associated Pacific cold front was in wrn AZ at 06z/16. Storms will exit the CWFA around or shortly after 06Z/17 and increased w winds will follow with the passage of the cold front. Despite the downslope winds we prefer the cooler temps due largely to the cool column (-2C to -4C@7H).
WV Imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure shifting eastward across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Abundant insolation today and starting out relatively mild in the low 50s/upper 40s will aid in a rapid warming into the 60s by this afternoon. Between the ECMWF/GFS/NAM family of models, extremely large variances have been seen in total snow output, although given the pattern the lower NAM model QPF and snow totals seem most reasonable at this point.
Current high temp forecast still looks good with readings only topping out in the mid- upper 50s in the west with upper 50s to the lower 60s in the east.
/ISSUED 302 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015/ THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING NE. CURRENTLY THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NE AND IS CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 06Z TUE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TAKING OVER AS THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE. THE TROUGH AND MAX 700MB LIFT ONLY MAKES IT INTO SPINE OF GEORGIA BY 00Z ON THU.
MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS SOUTH OF THE KEYS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE KEYS NORTHWARD IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG AND WEAKLY CONFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SPRAWLING CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO ASCEND INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEARING AND COOLER EXCEPTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MID MORNING. STRONG NORTHLY JET BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING IN THE NORTH FACING KERN CO MOUNTAINS THIS AM WITH STRONG WINDS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJV AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE KERN CO MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. EPAC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL CALM THE WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING AND WE MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CENTRAL SJV LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY AS OUR WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE EPAC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM (A WARM FRONT) ARE ALREADY ARRIVING. SINCE THIS IS A WARM FRONT, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE, BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE DEPOSITING SOME SNOW ON ALL THE HIGHER PASSES THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE CASCADES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT A CHILLY DAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLD FAIRLY STEADY WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE REGION. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER SOUTHWEST VALLEYS. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ARE SUPPORTED ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
245 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015 COLD THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGH DESERTS.
1033 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY.
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WITH 5-10 MPH SE WINDS. THU-SUN SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH COOLER HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURE THU-FRI.
700 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MERGE UP WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA TONIGHT.
CLEARING AND COOLER EXCEPTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MID MORNING. STRONG NORTHLY JET BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING IN THE NORTH FACING KERN CO MOUNTAINS THIS AM WITH STRONG WINDS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJV AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE KERN CO MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. EPAC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL CALM THE WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING AND WE MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CENTRAL SJV LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY AS OUR WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE EPAC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 49 68 58 / 0 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 45 67 55 / 0 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 46 67 54 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 38 67 49 / 0 0 0 10.
There were a few reports of snow overnight with the cold front passage and some of this snow IS lingering in southwest Montana and Lemhi County Idaho. Most of the snow will end by early afternoon and the region will be cooler and breezy now that the front has passed.
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IS CLASSIC WITH FEATHERING SPREADING OVER THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. THE CONUS VIEW SHOWS THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS HEADING THE ROLE FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE KEYS. THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE SHUNTING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PICTURE HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A LITTLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 80S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW END.
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N ACROSS E TX/N LA THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOULD EVEN SEE CIGS BECOME IFR NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SHOULD ALSO SEE SCT -SHRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE N LA AND ELD TERMINALS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. OUR ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EMERGING UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH A 60-70KT LLJ SETTING UP OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE DFW METROPLEX PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.
651 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MERGE UP WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS NORTHERLY COLD FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEVELOPING FOG AND A SLIGHT BREEZE WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH OF INTERIOR MENDOCINO TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING THE FREEZE WARNING IS ALREADY OUT. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEHIND A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN OUR AREA AND HOW MUCH RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION.
535 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA TODAY WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PROGRESSES FROM SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW ENDED SEVERAL HOURS AGO, WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL HAS PRODUCE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED/UNPLOWED ROADS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGH ELEVATION BACKCOUNTRY ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOT RECOMMENDED TODAY DUE TO STRONG RIDGE WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO DEGREES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO CA-NV.
High pressure remains off to the NE of the region this morning keeping our area in easterly flow.
603 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
High temperatures will be cooler today than yesterday due to the cloud cover and precipitation, although close to normal values for mid November.
959 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MERGE UP WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA TONIGHT.
650 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
407 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA TODAY WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL BE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PROGRESSES FROM SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. A SHORT TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO IOWA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA AMPLIFIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS IS FAIRLY STRONG AND WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDE NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE HIGH TEMPS WE OBSERVED ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ONLY IMPACT WE WILL SEE FROM THESE DISTURBACNES IS THE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING FROM THE WEST.
IN THE LOW CLOUDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN WITH PASSAGE OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA AMPLIFIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGHTENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS IS FAIRLY STRONG AND WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDE NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE HIGH TEMPS WE OBSERVED ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. OUR ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EMERGING UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH A 60-70KT LLJ SETTING UP OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE DFW METROPLEX PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
540 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE QUIET DAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
A MINOR HOWEVER SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO LIFT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD ADD MORE HEAT TO THE AREA.
Overnight, a cold front will push into southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas around 09Z shifting winds to the northeast. Thunderstorms could affect most terminals tonight behind a cold front. As a cold front makes its way southward into the area Friday evening into Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and along the cold front, providing the potential for flash flooding across these same areas. As the day progresses, the low level circulation over the western Permian Basin is expected to move westward, allowing for increased low level moisture into the area.
528 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
107 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH THEN IS TIMING COLD FRONT/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST WITH PCPN ACTIVITY TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TIED MORE TOWARD POST FRONTAL/MID-LEVEL TROUGH PV- ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHWEST WI/SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN SD. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR DRYING/COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS.
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN CWA RIGHT NOW AND MODELS HAVE IT THROUGH BY MID EVENING. THERE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN. THEN THINGS DRY OUT PRETTY GOOD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SUBSIDENCE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. SATURDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 4-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE PWATS OF OVER AN INCH IN THE STRONG FGEN AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MEAN THAT MORE RAIN AND STORMS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
THIS AREA WILL CONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS AND TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTN. WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ON SATURDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. THIS ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AND END TO THE PRECIP FOR A WHILE AT LEAST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT.