Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1040 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. A very persistent closed low will spin over the Carolinas today before drifting a little northwest towards West Virginia by late tonight. Strong high pressure surface and aloft will remain draped to the north and west of the closed low, maintaining dry weather through tonight. A modest amount of mid/high clouds will begin to spread northward into the region later tonight as the closed low begins to move northwest, and a spoke of vorticity rotates into the eastern Great Lakes. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s at lower elevations, and upper 70s to around 80 on the hills. Light northeast winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario a little cooler.
Main focus of the short term will continue to be on the closed low currently centered over the Carolinas. The upper low is expected to meander a bit to the NW throughout the day, moving over the Kentucky/West Virginia border by Thursday morning. Upper low will lift northward, from the KY/VA border on Thu morning into eastern Ohio on Thu night.
535 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Blocking pattern aloft prevailed with a upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Great Basin, an elongated ridge from New England to the southern Great Plains, and stationary upper low over the Carolinas. Band of convection ahead of a cold front was spreading northeast across the central Dakotas. Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. The front will lift to the north and west this morning as low pressure moves into central WY. The cold front will push south and east through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. Thursday will be much cooler as 700mb temperatures lower to 0 to 5 degrees Celsius.
1009 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A mid/upper level low will remain over the Carolinas today with increasing mid level WSW/SW flow in the H7-H3 layer. At the surface, E/SE flow around the Atlantic ridge will allow the east coast sea breeze to move more quickly inland along the Treasure Coast and slower inland movement north of the Cape. Then, winds veering southeasterly overnight, as the Atlantic ridge builds back towards the area.
325 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The Pac NW upper low has slid into the northern Rockies. Surface obs show the cold front has pushed through the northern two thirds of the CWA, but it is now hung up from Midland through the Badlands to near KIEN. Showers and thunderstorms are this evening, as the main axis of the upper low makes its way through the region. The upper low is progged to stall out north of ND. Highs will be much cooler than we've seen recently, in the 60s and 70s.
Cut-off low over the Mid-Atlantic continues to funnel dry, seasonably warm air over the forecast area from the northeast. The cut-off low will wobble to west on Thursday, close enough to trigger isolated thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon over the Kentucky Pennyrile and southwest Indiana.
627 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Summer warmth for the next couple days with upper level ridge bending across the region and steady, southerly flow at the sfc. Wind shear is displaced to the west, in the cooler air.
/issued 321 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ U/L cutoff area of low pressure will persist today over the Carolinas.
The morning surface analysis shows high pressure remains northeast around the eastern Great Lakes region and low pressure is setup off the Carolina coast line. Meanwhile a mid and upper level low continues to spin along the Carolina state line with a nudge north based on the RAP and water vapor imagery this morning. This as the upper level low starts to meander northward. The clouds will continue to be fairly extensive and therefore think the highs will be more suppressed than advertised by the NBM. Tonight the shower coverage will decrease, but as the mid and upper level low makes a push back north will keep clouds hung in. Also, opted for more clouds and again undercut the highs on Thursday from what the NBM is advertising. The low will gradually fill and drift northeast with time.
/issued 408 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ Deep low pressure over South Carolina has tapped into some drier air and eased a weak backdoor frontal boundary into the area yesterday and overnight. Region however remains in a dry north to northwest flow aloft between the aforementioned mid-Atlantic coast low, and a high pressure ridge extending from south Texas northeast into the Great Lakes region. Pattern breaks down for the new week as coastal low advances north then northeast off the coast and the high pressure ridge to our west advances over and east of the region. Winds will trend somewhat light and variable today, transitioning to light southerly overnight and Thursday as high pressure advances over and east of the region.
/issued 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging continues across the Central U. Deep South Texas will be slightly on the lee side of the ridge with dry, northwesterly flow at and above 500mb. This will leave the door open for enough moisture in the low levels, mainly from the surface to 700mb, for low rain chances. Thursday, the overall pattern will remain similar, but the moisture profile in the low level does wane slightly.
635 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 1243 AM CDT A rinse and repeat forecast is in store for today and Thursday as the area remains firmly under a ridge wedged between deep troughing centered over the northern Rockies and a stalled mid-level low over the Mid-Atlantic states. A few pieces of guidance show spits of QPF in the southeast CWA Thursday afternoon under weaker capping on the northwest periphery of the low to the east. Corresponding dew points in the low to mid 60s with this guidance appear overdone, and with no forcing in the area, will maintain a dry forecast.
Upper low moving through the Intermountain West attm as upstream riding begins to build inland along the West Coast.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper low that brought some modest cooling yesterday is now over Idaho as it lifts out of the region. The high resolution models all agree that these winds will dramatically decrease later this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. East Pacific ridging will gradually build inland later this week through the weekend for a warming trend and continued dry weather.
334 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Upper level low centered near Spencer Idaho this morning beginning to move northeast and track to northeast Montana by afternoon. Given relatively weak flow at the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere expect shower activity to be slow moving so there will be areas with locally heavier amounts. Center of the upper low shifts well northeast of the area on Thursday.
/issued 424 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ (Today and Tonight) The mainly dry and warm forecast will persist through tonight, with upper level ridging still in place.
The upper low has moved just a little farther north from where it was 24 hours ago. The main focus for some light showers will still be over Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee, but some widely scattered showers may form over the Cumberland Plateau as a northerly component to the low level flow has developed today producing some orographic lift here. VFR and MVFR expected during this taf cycle as llv moisture remains prevalent beneath the upper low.
332 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Blocking pattern aloft prevailed with a upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Great Basin, an elongated ridge from New England to the southern Great Plains, and stationary upper low over the Carolinas. Band of convection ahead of a cold front was spreading northeast across the central Dakotas. Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. The front will lift north and west this morning as low pressure moves into central WY. The upper trough will lift northeast into the western Dakotas by Thursday. The cold front will push south and east through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. Thursday will be much cooler as 700mb temperatures fall into the low to mid single digits Celsius.
530 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The Pac NW upper low has slid into the northern Rockies. Surface obs show the cold front has pushed through the northern two thirds of the CWA, but it is now hung up from Midland through the Badlands to near KIEN. Showers and thunderstorms are this evening, as the main axis of the upper low makes its way through the region. The upper low is progged to stall out north of ND. Highs will be much cooler than we've seen recently, in the 60s and 70s.
the cut off closed low is expected to shift north northeast some which will allow for the moisture plume and elevated instability to expand eastward across the CWA.
The low pressure will continue to move eastward today, with shower activity expected to weaken through the afternoon. Showers will linger, however, with most activity anticipated over the higher elevations.
At the surface, lee troughing remain in place with high pressure over the Ohio Valley. A cold front is still expected to push south, and by 21z is expected to extend from the near KSLN to near KGBD. The ECMWF is much quicker to build the upper ridge back in over the southern Plains by Mon night with the GFS holding it back over the Desert Southwest.
At the surface, high pressure over the eastern CONUS maintains a weak flow pattern across the region.
1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An upper level ridge extended from WI and northwestern MI southwest into the northwestern half of MO, while a slow moving cut-off upper level low was on the border of North and South Carolina. At the surface a ridge of high pressure extends from MI southwest into southeastern MO. Will see a gradual warming trend through Thursday as the surface/low level winds become southerly as the surface/low level ridge weakens and shifts well east of the region. The high temperatures by Thursday will be about 5 degrees above normal for mid June.
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Persistent closed upper low over the Carolinas slowly drifts slowly northward toward the eastern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and unwinds through the period. General low-level flow has already shifted to west/northwest and influence of the cool easterly low- level flow and cool pool of air associated with the upper low diminishing.
213 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Latest upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS with closed low over eastern Idaho. Ridging in place across the central CONUS. Skies are mostly sunny across the Northern Plains this afternoon with some cloud cover moving in from the west associated with the Idaho upper low. At the surface, low pressure is located over southern Manitoba with a slow moving cold front extending south through western and central South Dakota. Upper low across Idaho will shift into Wyoming tonight as surface cold front in central SD moves very little. Decent instability and shear ahead of the cold front across far south central SD will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening with hail and strong winds the main concern.
1143 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Blocking pattern aloft prevailed with a upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Great Basin, an elongated ridge from New England to the southern Great Plains, and stationary upper low over the Carolinas. Band of convection ahead of a cold front was spreading northeast across the central Dakotas. Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. The front will lift to the north and west this morning as low pressure moves into central WY. The cold front will push south and east through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. Thursday will be much cooler as 700mb temperatures lower to 0 to 5 degrees Celsius.
411 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Periodic scattered showers will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. The aforementioned upper low will remain the dominant feature through the end of the work week as it slowly fills and transitions across the region.
Southwest flow aloft will continue through early this weekend as a strong upper level low pressure system over the northern Rockies gradually repositions over southern Manitoba.
300 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Upper lows over North Carolina and Idaho this afternoon.
The main focus for some light showers will still be over Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee, but some widely scattered showers may form over the Cumberland Plateau as a northerly component to the low level flow has developed today producing some orographic lift here. Mainly vfr flight conditions in place this afternoon despite large area of ceilings associated with a North Carolina upper low.
1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Summer warmth for the next couple days with upper level ridge bending across the region and steady, southerly flow at the sfc. Wind shear is displaced to the west, in the cooler air.
Some cirrus overspray is expected for the southern airfields related to a large low pressure system currently over the Carolinas. Mid-high cloud cover will increase overnight as the low retrogrades, drifting northeastward.
113 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Periodic scattered showers will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. The aforementioned upper low will remain the dominant feature through the end of the work week as it slowly fills and transitions across the region.
300 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An area of low pressure aloft will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous light rain showers and sprinkles to eastern Kentucky this afternoon. The rain will taper off overnight, but will return early Thursday, as the upper low spins its way slowly toward us.
An upper low/trough will move through Montana today and lift north into the Canadian Prairies tonight and Thursday. Temperatures will be much cooler than normal today and Thursday with highs in the 60s in most areas today and 55 to 65 on Thursday. The upper low will be far enough to the northeast Thursday Night for mainly dry weather over the forecast area.
A vertically stacked trough remains over the Mid Atlantic today. Several lobes of vorticity will rotate around the trough and progress over the TN Valley later today, providing broad scale lift for showers and thunderstorms over the region. Otherwise, look for highs to peak in the low to mid 80s as we gradually warm back to seasonable temperatures.
341 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Current surface observations indicate afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s today with overnight lows in the mid to lower 60s.
A persistent cloud line has been ongoing along and just north of the Lower Keys.
Yesterdays upper level low has pushed east over Idaho and Montana this morning with just a little moisture wrapping back around into far eastern Oregon. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific is beginning to move inland. This will provide the rest of the forecast area clear skies and warmer temperatures.
330 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Heat, high dew points, and instability have built up east of a surface cold front situated west of the Missouri River this afternoon. All indications by the ops models and high-res models is that storm development will occur between 23z and 01z along the cold front with an upper level trigger moving in. Therefore, the surface cold front will make its push through the region through Thursday afternoon with northwest winds bringing in cooler air. Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop mainly east of the James Valley on Thursday afternoon with the lift of the short wave trough moving over the region.
304 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Blocky upper level pattern with an elongated ridge stretching from the Midwest east to New England, and a cut off low spinning over North Carolina will persist for the next 24-36 hours. Carney The block aloft will begin breaking down late Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning over eastern Idaho moves northeast and interacts with the upper ridge.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicts the blocking feature of a closed upper low over central North Carolina/Virgina moving very little. The forecast area remains "squeezed' between this feature and closed upper lows across both Idaho/Montana and Saskatchewan.
1113 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The Pac NW upper low has slid into the northern Rockies. Surface obs show the cold front has pushed through the northern two thirds of the CWA, but it is now hung up from Midland through the Badlands to near KIEN. Showers and thunderstorms are this evening, as the main axis of the upper low makes its way through the region. The upper low is progged to stall out north of ND. Highs will be much cooler than we've seen recently, in the 60s and 70s.
215 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Broken cumulus decks draped over the region will continue to limit solar heating as temperatures rise into the upper 70s and peak in the low to mid 80s later today.
The cold front is currently located across southern Utah and should gradually shift southeastward through the day. As the upper level trough shifts eastward, the threat for showers will gradually wane through the afternoon. A cold front crossing central and southern Utah this morning will continue slowly southeastward today.
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Who is excited for another warm and windy day? Thankfully it will be our last for the foreseeable future, as the low pressure system that has been sitting off to our west finally passes through the area by tomorrow. As we head into the late afternoon, the cold front associated with the aforementioned low begins to enter our far western counties along the MO River in central SD. By midday, the cold front will be draped across the area roughly along a line from Marshall, MN to Sioux Falls, SD to Sioux City, IA. As the cold front exits the area by late afternoon, expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 50s overnight with gusts down to 10 mph.
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An area of low pressure aloft will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous light rain showers and sprinkles to eastern Kentucky this afternoon. The rain will taper off overnight, but will return early Thursday, as the upper low spins its way slowly toward us. The low will gradually fill and drift northeast with time.
125 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
632 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
415 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DIGGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. AN U/L TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SINKING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TO THE WEST. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO REMAIN AND PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FIRES OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO AND MOVES INTO THE AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
418 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE HIGH MAKING UP THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY THEN GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS RIDGE ON TUESDAY. STRONG ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING TODAY LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTS SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH GOOD DYNAMICS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE LOW LEVEL (0-3KM) SHEAR COMPONENT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR WILL BE LINE NORMAL. BUT COLD FRONT MAY LAG BEHIND AND MAY NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 80 AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY.
326 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER MO VALLEY. WITH RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U. MODEL CONSENSUS PROGS THE RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND TRANSFORMING INTO A TROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
A MCS IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A WEAK WAVE HOWEVER SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES.
336 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND KEEP THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE CWA UNTIL EVENING.
420 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
625 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE" UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL OCCUR BY MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. AS WELL AS HEAT INDICES TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAY YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
950 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY THEN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT LIKELY WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN RELATIVELY CLOUDY START DUE TO STRATUS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK TO BRING HOT INLAND WEATHER. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.