Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will be from the northwest this afternoon shifting to the southwest by this evening as a trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight are progged to range from the low-mid 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. This is due to the area of low pressure strengthening across southeastern Colorado with a cold front entering northwest Kansas.
We have had some light showers and plenty of clouds today as the Midwest upper level trough moves eastward and Hurricane Nate approaches the northcentral Gulf Coast. By Sunday, the trough will move away while the decaying Nate will accelerate and curve quickly to the northeast.
A cold front passing from north to south through the area on Sunday is still on track as well and it will bring some light snow to the central Idaho mountains on Sunday.
As the low pressure system continues to make its way east this evening, skies have begun to clear, especially over northern portions of the CWA. An upper level low and low pressure trough and strong jet will continue to move east of the forecast area overnight tonight into Sunday. On Sunday: Another low pressure disturbance is forecast to wrap SSE around the departing low pressure system bringing in cooler air and breezy WNW winds to NE MT, with a few light showers.
1256 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday.
Much-weakened TC Nate will turn northeastward over the eastern CONUS around the Atlantic high pressure ridge to its east. Atlantic high pressure ridge to the north/northeast of Florida will remain the dominant weather feature.
A cold front will push through Sunday, but temperatures should be able to reach the 60s to lower 70s area wide, warmest across southern MN and Wisconsin.
/issued 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ An upper low is over Iowa and is embedded on the south end of a broad upper trough over southern Canada. High temperatures today should be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and near normal for this time of year. The upper trough over Canada will dig southward on Sunday.
A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to much of the forecast area Sunday.
With Midwest trof of Low pressure filling, approaching front will essentially disintegrate as it lifts across/skirts just north and west of our FA.
741 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Cold front approaches tonight, with gusty wind and showers.
CC A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to much of the forecast area Sunday.
A pre-frontal boundary continues to move across the coastal plains while a cold front pushes over the Hill Country as of this writing. No expecting precipitation rest of this afternoon or evening as the cold front moves to the south.
A weak short wave trough will be over southwest Texas early Sunday morning and move northeast through the Arklatex region Sunday night.
850 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday.
sunny skies prevail with the area under high pressure. high pressure shifting ESE as a weak lee-side trough comes off the eastern Rockies. This trough/boundary will sink SE across the CWA during the afternoon hrs Sunday. for the first round of what will be cooler/colder air advecting into the entire CWA. Sunday night: Somewhat positively tilted trough and associated upper low will be swinging through the Four Corners region and headed towards the plains. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be dropping into the mid 30s in the west and mid to upper 40s in the east.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. The overall downward trend will continue through Sunday as broad high pressure settles across the Florida peninsula, and the local pressure gradient continues a slackening trend.
1248 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 High pressure over the Atlantic will extend west across the region through Sunday.
Meanwhile, sfc obs and the KSHV 88-D depict a weak cold front that is now drifting S across Scntrl AR into extreme NW LA/adjacent sections of extreme Ern TX, from just W of ELD, to SHV, to F17, to just W of LFK. Current thinking is that the -SHRA over Cntrl/NE LA will continue to diminish overnight, as the drier air deepens farther E with the weak upper trough.
644 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Line of showers continue to progress east with the cold front. Believe there is some potential for patchy fog to develop in the low lying areas where wind can decouple toward daybreak Sunday morning.
637 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A cold front has moved through the forecast area, advecting much drier and cooler air into the region. Clouds continue to clear from west to east, and a pleasant Saturday afternoon will yield a classic fall night with lows falling into the lower to middle 50s by sunrise Sunday.
1119 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A cold front has moved through the forecast area, advecting much drier and cooler air into the region. Clouds continue to clear from west to east, and a pleasant Saturday afternoon will yield a classic fall night with lows falling into the lower to middle 50s by sunrise Sunday.
The few light showers associated with the trough will be east of our counties by this evening. Another relatively mild day with ridging aloft over western Wyoming and minimal cloud cover for our counties. Even more mild overnight as the ridge axis aloft moves overhead and as the airmass continues to moderate.
The presence of high pressure at the surface has allowed for light winds and that should continue through much of the day tomorrow. Though the high will drift into the Mid-Missouri valley by mid-day, which will allow return southerly flow for our western zones. The latest guidance suggests upper teens and lower 20s by daybreak, but highs tomorrow afternoon a few degrees warmer.
Expect highs in the lower/mid 50s coolest in the N/NW where mid-level cloud cover may mitigate insolation during the late afternoon. Expect lows tonight a few degrees warmer than this morning due to mid-level cloud cover, in the low/mid 20s. Aside from weak low-level warm advection in eastern CO (on the far western periphery of an H85 thermal ridge centered over the Central Plains), little if any additional forcing will be present over the Tri-State area. Expect dry conditions to persist with highs similar (albeit slightly warmer N/NW) than today. S/SW low-level flow will strengthen over eastern CO and western KS late Tue/Tue night as the H85 thermal ridge shifts southward into TX. With a S/SW breeze, expect warmer overnight lows in the mid/upper 20s.
Surface ridging down into the forecast area from the Plains will provide a relatively dry northerly continental flow. /issued 458 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ Drier and cooler air filtering into the region early this morning in the wake of the CDFNT that crossed the area SUN afternoon and evening. 13 Moderate to strong north winds will gradually subside this afternoon through tonight as high pressure settles into the region.
High pressure builds in Tuesday as temperatures continue their warm run.
Also, seeing within this imagery turbulent air motions around the clouds as they break/clear--indicative of the strong cold air advection/NW flow aloft behind the trough. CAA tied to the these northerly winds will result in lows at to slightly below freezing. Have held off on issuing any Freeze products for tonight, due to the fact that winds may remain high enough to keep the lower levels mixed. And it may not be until right at sunrise Tuesday that we see temps drop below freezing. Thus, it's not enough of a time period below freezing to warrant a Freeze product at this time.
323 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Tonight, low clouds are likely to diminish as high pressure continues dropping south into the Plains. Stratocumulus clouds once again increasing again, esp east areas, as an upper low drops into the upper Ohio Valley.
139 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Upper ridge building in from the west with a trough over the east. The next upper low begins to move ashore the west coast Tuesday. This low will spin over the west for days but make little eastward progress. do not see another cold front out through the rest of the forecast.
A strong ridge was shifting into the northern Rockies to our west with broad low pressure over the eastern CONUS, providing our persistent northwest flow pattern. Otherwise the seasonably cool high pressure pattern contributed to mostly clear skies and light winds across the area. Less confidence in fog for the southwest with southerly flow on the west side of the high pressure axis.
/Issued 248 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ Clouds continue to quickly erode this afternoon as the upper low that kept lingering showers across portions of the area this morning exits into the Carolinas. Despite breezy conditions, overnight temperatures should drop into the 30s area wide with upper 20s in the higher elevations of northeast Georgia. While temperatures may not drop below freezing for more than two to three hours outside of northeast Georgia, opted to issue a Freeze Warning from 6 AM through 10 AM Tuesday morning for portions of north Georgia where the frost/freeze program has already begun.
204 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Aviation Low pressure will move across Lower Michigan today bringing light snow which will transition to snow showers near Lake Michigan tonight and on Tuesday. Some diurnal enhancement is possible this afternoon given steep lapse rates as upper low comes through.
Winds through the day will be east to southeast so afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler.
210 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 A couple of minor upper level short wave troughs will dive southeast from the northern high plains into the central plains where they will get caught up in a much larger circulation over the Great Lakes and northeast.
110 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 A large ridge of high pressure over the northern Plains was building southeastward into MO.
NEAR-TERM (through early evening): cold front will continue making steady progress through the area, and clear the entire southern peninsula by 6 PM.
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 VFR conditions across all TAF sites this afternoon, as an area of high pressure moves into the region from the northwest.
Diurnal warming combined with modest moisture and a weak disturbance in northwest flow is expected to yield isolated showers over the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains Tuesday afternoon. The remainder of Tuesday night will be dry with cirrus beginning to spill over eastern Utah and western Colorado ahead of a low pressure trough over the West Coast.
This trof will move thru this eve with NW flow contg into tomorrow. Height falls along the W coast will be nudging the ridge E. This high will sag into the Dakotas tonight and to near FSD by 00Z/Wed. A nice warming trend along with dry weather is anticipated through mid-week as high pressure amplifies across the intermountain west over the next several days.
It will quickly move southeast down the back side of the trough over the next 24 hours, bringing us a few more clouds tomorrow. Expect most places to be similar to or just slight warmer. At this point in time, do not think we will see a widespread freeze, but some of the colder locations across southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas will definitely be flirting with or seeing the freezing mark. High pressure will then build across the region for the remainder of the work week, with warmer and more seasonal conditions prevailing.
Drier and warmer heading into the weekend. Will keep PoPs in the high chance range, but everyone should see flakes at some point during the day.
357 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 An upper level low moving across the Great Lakes into the Northeast will bring below normal temperatures and scattered snow showers into Tuesday night. However, clouds are expected to increase again late as the next impulse drops into the mean upper trough. While this activity will produce little snow accumulation, it can have a big impact on travel conditions, especially if road temperatures remain near or just below freezing as expected as this precipitation moves through. Favored cooler guidance for Tuesday highs while a MOS blend seemed reasonable for Tuesday night lows. An upper level low pressure will be centered across the northeastern United States with the ILN forecast area in the ageostrophic convergent side of the trough axis.
The eastern flank of the pressure ridge expands slowly eastward over the local area maintaining a rain-free forecast in the near term.
Therefore, with this along with light winds and clear skies under high pressure tonight, expect areas of fog to form later and remain into Tuesday morning.
Going with lows in the mid to upper 30s, which is near to slightly below the low side of guidance. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be several degrees warmer than today, in the lower to mid 60s.
The combination of clear skies and light winds will be supportive of radiative cooling during the overnight hours while the high pressure is over the region.
Pleasant and dry weather will continue for the Northern Rockies through late Tuesday with high pressure overhead.
547 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 A longwave upper-level ridge over the Western CONUS will keep active weather out of the near term forecast period. Due to the relatively dry north winds the incoming airmass is not overly moist; however, the favorable radiational set-up looks supportive for at least patchy fog for much of the James River Valley and the Buffalo Ridge. Fog should dissipate by mid-morning as sunshine helps mix the lowest layers of the atmosphere.
High pressure will continue to build southward from the northern Plains tonight with north winds becoming light as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit. Expect the rest of the low clouds to clear out this evening as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20s.
Cooler and drier air will enter the region tonight behind the system.
102 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Dry high pressure will be over Wyoming tonight and Tuesday.
Temps may be a few degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s out west.
Low pressure nearing ne Lake Huron is starting to lose its identity, as it gets absorbed into the much larger circulation around the developing east coast storm. But with the upper low developing just to our ne and e, and associated lowering of 500mb heights, there's more going on to generate precip than just the lakes. Marginal over lake instability/lingering upper level troughing should prolong northerly flow lake effect snow showers into Tuesday night.
Clearing skies and a cool airmass will result in overnight lows dropping into the mid 30s across the normally cooler inland locations with lower 40s along the coast. Some patchy frost could occur in the normally cooler locations, but not quite confident enough to go with a frost advisory at this time.
/issued 259 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ Deep upper level troughing will persist across the eastern half of the United States through mid week.
A quick update was issued to include a flurry mention this for most zones given radar returns with the encroachment of cold upper low pressure. Will keep PoPs in the high chance range, but everyone should see flakes at some point during the day.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 51 30 49 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 46 28 44 / 20 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 31 47 27 44 / 20 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 42 25 39 / 20 10 40 20 TN.
Nevertheless, temperatures in the low to mid 30s and light winds should support consisderable frost development over the northeast two thirds. Slightly warmer high temperatures look probable with upper 50s and 60s. evolving nor'easter will be responsible for carving out a large E Conus trough and that will serve to keep the cold airmass entrenched over our region for a few days. The result of this will be a few more opportunities to see near/below freezing conditions. Look for a quick warmup for later week with more moisture and warmer temps slated for the weekend. A warmer suite of guidance was preferred each of those days. Some 80 degrees readings were added to the forecast highs on Sun-Mon, but if more sunshine can peak out between clouds and some chances for rain, then warmer readings will verify.
308 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Latest upper analysis shows a high amplitude upper ridge over the western CONUS with a weak vort max dropping down the east side of the ridge, currently moving from swrn SD into nwrn NEB. At the surface a N-S oriented band of high pressure over the great plains will lead to light southeasterly winds over much of the forecast area tonight.
351 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 A longwave upper-level ridge over the Western CONUS will keep active weather out of the near term forecast period. Due to the relatively dry north winds the incoming airmass is not overly moist; however, the favorable radiational set-up looks supportive for at least patchy fog for much of the James River Valley and the Buffalo Ridge. Fog should dissipate by mid-morning as sunshine helps mix the lowest layers of the atmosphere.
1107 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 08z surface analysis had ridge across the northern Plains, just east of the CWA.
At this point it seems that the western CWA will see the lightest winds and the high resolution models are most consistant on developing fog over this area. Many of the high resolution models develop some fog just east of the Red River where there has been a pattern the past few days. Tomorrow, fog should burn off by mid-day and surface winds will shift to the south and southwest as the center of the high moves southeast of the CWA. Highs should make the low 30s, but increased to close to 40 for the areas in the east with trees. This will help temperatures increase into the upper 30s for much of the week, with an upper ridge over MT/WY keeping the northern tier dry thorugh the end of the week.
This high will continue its track southward ending up over eastern OK and AR by Wed morning. Wind speeds will also increase across the western FA, as a lee trough begins to develop under a long wave mid level ridge.
Winds should clam down this evening and winds will not be as elevated tomorrow as they were today as high pressure builds into the area. Strong high pressure will be over the forecast area. Freezing temperatures are expected, but there will be several mornings where frost can't be ruled out in the normally colder, well protected, locations.
NAM and RAP soundings showing column moisture increase to 4-5K feet deep in the low levels, partially in the dendritic growth zone.
High pressure remains over the region today, keeping dry and warm weather through Tuesday for much of the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): North winds are in full effect this afternoon after yesterday's cold front passage. Winds are expected to decrease to less than 5kts overnight with the high in the vicinity.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a pair of very weak areas of low pressure over eastern sections of the Great Lakes. A ridge of high pressure resided from west of Lake Winnipeg south through the central Plains. Any snow showers or flurries to be restricted more to eastern WI, while lake effect for north-central WI to begin diminishing as high pressure builds into the Upper MS Valley.
205 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Tonight, low clouds are likely to diminish as high pressure continues dropping south into the Plains. Stratocumulus clouds once again increasing again, esp east areas, as an upper low drops into the upper Ohio Valley.
Main challenge with this is temperatures as surface ridging remains in place with light winds, so just how much radiational cooling can take place. Secondary surge of Canadian high pressure pushes in Tuesday to keep highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
329 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Tonight, low clouds are likely to diminish as high pressure continues dropping south into the Plains. Stratocumulus clouds once again increasing again, esp east areas, as an upper low drops into the upper Ohio Valley.
At the surface, high pressure extends from ND down into central TX. Airmass should start to modify with highs Tue several degrees warmer than today. There is good model agreement in a deep northwest CONUS trough setting up by Wed with sharp upper ridging over the Rockies into the high Plains. Both medium range models bring out the main upper trough Mon into Mon night with the bulk of the precip staying north of the forecast area.
Northwesterly flow will help keep temperatures cooler, and mid-upper level moisture will bring in some cloud cover as well.
259 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Deep upper level troughing will persist across the eastern half of the United States through mid week.
High pressure will build in on Tuesday, with breezy northwest winds once again. Anticipating highs in the lower to mid 30s, but if cloud cover is sparse like Monday, may need to bump those up a bit. The upper level pattern looks to slowly evolve this week as the large trough over the eastern part of the continent moves slowly to the east.
High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Large scale trough over the Great Lakes region is producing northwest flow over central IL with a series of embedded weak disturbances bringing a threat of flurries and sprinkles over the upcoming day.
This might bring a light wintry mix if not light snowfall to the higher elevations of this area, but no measurable accumulations are expected at this time.
Highs tomorrow will be similar to or perhaps a few degrees cooler than today, especially across northeast MO and southwest IL.
652 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Precipitation will end this evening as an upper level low pressure system over eastern SC moves off the coast. Cooler and drier air will enter the region tonight behind the system.
246 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 With an amplified ridge moving into the region overnight and Tuesday, skies will remain clear with little to no wind. Still expect increasing temperatures over the next couple of days with the ridge moving through the area.
Expect cooler temperatures with periods of rainfall along with breezy and gusty winds at times through late week.
222 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 109 PM CDT Temperatures warmed quicker than normal this morning, so I raised high temps a few degrees into the low 40s. High temps will be in the low to mid 30s Tuesday and north- northwest winds will be gusting to 25 MPH. Upper low will be centered over the central Great Lakes region to start the period.
Despite the high currently situated over southwest Manitoba Canada, it will be a very slow moving high and is not expected to pass by to our southwest until Tuesday afternoon. This is one solution from the suite of deterministic models trying to forecast what happens with a deep long wave trough moving into the PacNW, so some caution is exercised in any solution regarding this feature. The forecast leading up to this system is largely dry and warmer.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Large area of high pressure situated off to the west of the state with generally northerly flow aloft coming off a high-amplitude ridge in place across the western US. The northerly flow keeps a cooler air mass in place across the forecast area, with dry conditions expected. Therefore kept Tuesday temps a bit cooler or similar to today with slight cooling aloft and the addition of some slight cloud cover. /Tuesday night through Monday/ Models are definitely trending cooler on our warm up this week. Overall the upper ridge is now being flattened/broken down as it shifts out of the Rockies into the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Large mid/upper level low to usher in plenty of moisture and strong orographics into the Sierra Nevada range beginning on Tuesday.
High pressure will build in tonight and Tuesday with breezy northwest winds ushering in much cooler drier air. A highly amplified pattern will be in place aloft during the middle part of the week with a large area of low pressure just off the Pacific northwest coast followed by ridging across the Rockies and then another trough over the eastern half of the U.
/issued 421 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with northwest flow over the CWA.