Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
238 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Satellite imagery this morning depicts an area of midlevel cloud cover across much of the High Plains, with broken upper-level clouds streaming across the nrn Rockies through NW flow aloft. Modest westerly flow should preclude much westward progress of the low clouds/fog into our area through daybreak. Sfc trof over cntrl MT/ern WY should gradually shift ewd through the day. In the wake of the trof, will see an increase in NW flow this evening and tonight.
After a high of 50 yesterday, MSP will struggle to warm up this afternoon with high pressure overhead.
Today, the Northern Rockies will be under dry northwest flow on the east side of a ridge sitting off the coast of northern California. This setup will mean very stable high pressure bearing down on low-level residual moisture from recent precipitation.
354 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A quiet start to the day is expected following the passage of a cold front from last night. Lake effect snow showers over northwest Wisconsin are expected to come to an end this morning as high pressure builds over the CWA.
126 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Increasing moisture within a south to southwest wind flow ahead of a cold front may support periods of MVFR cigs at the terminals through 19Z with scattered to broken cigs aoa 035 and VCSH possible after 02Z as the front moves into the region, otherwise VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Zeta, located just south of the Louisiana coastline will be steered by this ridging as it makes landfall over SE Louisiana later this evening.
At the surface, a cold front was analyzed over far eastern Mississippi early this morning with cool dry air quickly filtering into the area in it's wake. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s area wide beneath partly cloudy skies.
303 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Morning water vapor imagery shows the well-defined upper cyclone tracking east along the Red River, with the primary band of moderate showers observed along the KS/OK border. HREF solution looks good swinging this band of precipitation east-southeast today, with rainfall eventually shifting east of the area this afternoon as the upper cyclone eventually tracks into southern AR.
After maximum temperatures surprised by being a few degrees warmer than expected, temperatures today will be a bit cooler as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Strong high pressure ridge across the eastern Pacific and the Pacific NW along with an inverted surface thermal trough along the Cascade Range were responsible for the unseasonably warm temperatures today. Thursday will be as warm or a couple of degrees warmer than today.
143 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Positively tilted upper trof, and its associated cold front, continues to move through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon. Mid level and surface ridging follow behind the trof/cold front late tonight. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation as the lowest levels of the atmosphere in this area will not be conducive of accumulation. The ridging will hang on through Thursday. The best forcing will be located near the track of the low pressure and have the highest pops over Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin counties as a result.
The majority of the forecast area resides within the deformation portion of the low, with widespread rain showers/thunderstorms across south central and southeast KS. Gusty north winds will relax by afternoon as surface ridging slides into the region.
That said the highest values for lift/divergence aloft move across North Dakota. For today a cooler airmass has spread over the region, which should lead to lower temperatures over the forecast area.
252 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 An upper level low pressure area centered along the Texas/Oklahoma border will rapidly move eastward into the Tennessee Valley today.
1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Showers will spread northward into the forecast area late this afternoon and this evening ahead of the cut-off upper level low moving slowly eastward through the Southern Plains. Plenty of Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of the upper level low as Hurricane Zeta makes landfall and moves northeastward into the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday. A second area of rain will move eastward through southern portions of MO and IL on Thursday in the deformation zone ahead and left of the track of the upper low which will move through AR and into TN as it opens up and gradually weakens.
WV satellite shows an upper low roughly over Wichita Falls with latest SPC 700mb analysis showing narrowing axis of moist advection continuing to wrap around this feature, leading to our ongoing precipitation. Snow intensity has begun to decrease, with this expected to continue given mid-level drying courtesy of drier air advecting southwestward from C KS combined with the upper low and associated moist axis departing to the east. Today, expect initially breezy winds to decrease through the morning as 700/850mb jets shift eastward along with the upper low. Have thus gone with the cold side of consensus blends for highs today, with many locations likely to struggle to reach the lower 40s.
1050 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Warm air advection across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving south across central MN/northern WI. Look for that cold front to drop through the area this evening with an increase in stratus/stratocumulus behind the front. Low cloud look to linger through at least the morning hours tomorrow, but then scattering out in the afternoon as high pressure builds in. Otherwise, a cooler day on tap with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
But low clouds at the MVFR level are expected to filter back from the northwest from mid morning through early afternoon at most sites as an upper low pivots across the region. May keep cloud cover near and north of the I-30 Corridor tonight but closer to the I-20 Corridor and points south, clouds will clear tonight and even though the pressure gradient will remain strong resulting in some strong winds, CAA is strong ahead of this upper level trough to our west and therefore temperatures will plummet quickly.
1204 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A cold front will cross the region overnight followed by high pressure on Thursday.
High pressure aloft centered over the eastern Pacific will maintain the dry and mild conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the end of the week.
Today will be cool as a deep wave passes to the east drawing in cooler air and a stratus shield from Minnesota and Wisconsin. There will be a fair amount of cloud cover around this morning and the lower ceilings are fairly expansive though satellite is beginning to show some holes in the stratus. Bottom line is that clouds will keep temps down this morning and the deep northerly flow depicted in soundings will keep cold air in place until that upper trough finally shifts east tonight.
An upper ridge will keep most of the area dry through Thursday with spotty light rain over the far north part of the area.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a dry slot working in across the Lower Mississippi Valley with KNQA WSR-88D radar trends showing rain showers moving out of the area in the next hour or two. However, this will be short-lived as an upper level low currently located in the Red River Valley in Texas moves into Arkansas this morning and into the forecast area this afternoon. The aforementioned upper level low will move into Middle Tennessee this evening with rain chances gradually diminishing as high pressure builds into the region.
652 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A sharp clearing line is evident on Satellite this morning as the potent upper level low across Oklahoma is beginning to shift east. This should help temperatures to return to the lower 50s for most areas by afternoon. despite the modestly cooler airmass that advected across the region overnight. went a bit warmer with highs for today than previous forecast. expect seasonably warm to above normal temperatures to dominate along with dry weather as high pressure builds to our west and eventually transitions eastward.
520 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Satellite imagery this morning depicts an area of midlevel cloud cover across much of the High Plains, with broken upper-level clouds streaming across the nrn Rockies through NW flow aloft. Modest westerly flow should preclude much westward progress of the low clouds/fog into our area through daybreak. Sfc trof over cntrl MT/ern WY should gradually shift ewd through the day. In the wake of the trof, will see an increase in NW flow this evening and tonight. Breezy S/SW winds will develop on Friday as another sfc trof approaches the area and deepens. Trof and associated cold front cross the region late Friday.
646 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Intense upper level low along the Red River/south central OK/north TX will move east through southern AR this morning. Warm air/instability aloft wrapping around the low is producing a band of convection from the TX/OK Panhandles to eastern KS with some embedded thunderstorms. As the upper low shifts east we should see clearing move in from the west and northwest this afternoon and evening.
238 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2020 High pressure will prevail over eastern California and western Nevada for the upcoming week. Quiet weather expected for the next several days as high pressure continues to slowly build into the southwest.
Strong and gusty winds develop on Friday as a surface cold front sweeps through the forecast area.
Upper high centered over the eastern Pacific extends over NorCal and is bringing dry, warm conditions with light winds. Upper high will shift east over California into the weekend, this will keep the warm and dry pattern in place with high temperatures running about 10 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's.
As the upper trough continues to move east today, cloudy skies will continue to clear. Highs today will still be much cooler than usual; but, they'll be warmer than yesterday.
629 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 (Today and tonight) Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is expected to move out of northern Oklahoma, diminish, and skirt across central Oklahoma around daybreak as the upper low continues eastward along the Red River area of southeastern Oklahoma. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, but observation sites continue to report light snowfall there. Finally, fog and freezing fog are expected early Friday over areas that had received rainfall.
cooler temperatures today. and extent of any light snow/freezing drizzle Thursday night.
528 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 The upper low centered over Texas and Oklahoma will be moving off to the east today. Northwest flow over the central High Plains region will turn more westerly on Friday as a trough approaches from the northwest U.
415 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 What a difference 24 hours makes! Early morning sfc analysis shows now Tropical Storm Zeta zipping quickly newd across the TN Valley while the cold front which brought fall-like weather to the forecast area yesterday is now located over sern LA. sfc obs/IR imagery indicate the last of the low-level cloud cover approaching the Atchafalaya Basin at this time.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a dry slot working in across the Lower Mississippi Valley with KNQA WSR-88D radar trends showing rain showers moving out of the area in the next hour or two. However, this will be short-lived as an upper level low currently located in the Red River Valley in Texas moves into Arkansas this morning and into the forecast area this afternoon. The aforementioned upper level low will move into Middle Tennessee this evening with rain chances gradually diminishing as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be much cooler on Friday with highs only reaching the 50s.
330 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A warm front pushing across the region today will bring light precipitation tracking from southwest to northeast. Longer range ensembles show a large building upper level ridge across the western U. VFR conditions will prevail, though times of MVFR ceilings may occur with showers as a warm front lifts through the region today.
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A quiet start to the day is expected following the passage of a cold front from last night. Lake effect snow showers over northwest Wisconsin are expected to come to an end this morning as high pressure builds over the CWA.
The aforementioned upper low wl cont to track EWD acrs AR today. Rain chcs wl diminish fm the west later today/early tngt as the upper low shifts further to the E.
1057 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Low-level ridging will continue to erode across the Keys this afternoon, with breezes turning to the southeast to south and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots.
Our high temperatures will climb to near freezing in most areas with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 20s overnight.
After a high of 50 yesterday, MSP will struggle to warm up this afternoon with high pressure overhead. On Friday, we'll see ridging building into the Upper Midwest as temperatures warm ahead of the next cold front. Highs look to rebound into the lower 40s with clearing skies Friday afternoon.
That said the highest values for lift/divergence aloft move across North Dakota. For today a cooler airmass has spread over the region, which should lead to lower temperatures over the forecast area. An upper trough will be approaching the region Friday night and work it's way through the first half of the weekend.
Winds will be gusty and out of the west through much of the period in the wake of a cold frontal passage. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed over far eastern Mississippi early this morning with cool dry air quickly filtering into the area in it's wake. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s area wide beneath partly cloudy skies.
447 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A sharp clearing line is evident on Satellite this morning as the potent upper level low across Oklahoma is beginning to shift east. This should help temperatures to return to the lower 50s for most areas by afternoon. despite the modestly cooler airmass that advected across the region overnight. went a bit warmer with highs for today than previous forecast. expect seasonably warm to above normal temperatures to dominate along with dry weather as high pressure builds to our west and eventually transitions eastward.
Today through Friday A broad ridge remains in place over the EPAC, resulting in northwest flow aloft. A fast-moving trough will approach the Cowboy State Friday, moving over the PACNW through the day.
A peak at the GOES 16 satellite this evening shows the large upper low spinning across the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma with Hurricane Zeta trucking through Central Alabama.
After maximum temperatures surprised by being a few degrees warmer than expected, temperatures today will be a bit cooler as a weak cold front moves through the area. Temperatures rebound on Friday as strong southwest flow in the low levels will advect in warmer temperatures.
As the system continues to move northeast, some of the higher elevations along the plateau could see a couple isolated gusts up to 35 mph through the morning hours. For the rest of the area, we are sandwiched between Zeta and the upper low sitting over northern TX and southern OK. Additional rainfall from the upper low/cold front which will move through Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening will be light with total QPF of 0. Showers associated with the cold front should move east of the Cumberland Plateau after midnight. We will shift to a much more fall-ish pattern on Friday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
517 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Under partly cloudy skies and southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. A western Atlantic ridge axis lying across south central Florida today, will sag southward and into our area tonight and Friday.
Over the higher valleys readings will be at least 10 degrees colder than guidance where inversions hold. Finally will continue to see some fog, in the higher valleys of Middle Park, both this morning and again tonight.
/issued 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ A quieter and warmer day is on tap today as our winter storm system moves further away from West Texas. Cloud cover will also depart the region as the low heads toward the Mississippi Valley. Sunny skies this afternoon will mark temperatures beginning their rebound from this week's cold with highs expected to be mostly in a range from 45 to 55 degrees - warmer than recent days but still well below normal. Friday will be quiet as upper ridging dominates the region.
High temperatures warm into the 55 to 60 degree range with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.
and Friday Low level cold advection will make for high temperatures about ten degrees cooler than yesterday.
These breezy conditions will be a result of Tropical Storm Zeta pushing northeast across the southeast US in addition to weak high pressure in the Central Plains pushing east. Temperatures will remain fairly chilly in the low to mid 40s despite the sun.
Chances for showers will continue today, mainly this morning and again later in the afternoon evening as the cold front moves through.
532 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Flow aloft will begin a gradual shift to the west today as a trough moving from the Gulf of Alaska toward the Pacific Northwest slightly amplifies the ridge over the West Coast. The shift in flow will bring increased warm air advection which will translate into warmer surface temperatures this afternoon. Though warmer, afternoon highs are expected to remain below normal for all but the southern portion of the forecast area where temperatures will be more seasonal. On Friday, the Gulf of Alaska trough sweeps over the Pacific Northwest and moves to the northern Rockies on Friday. Except for continued warming, conditions across the forecast area will remain largely unchanged ahead of the trough.
/issued 252 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ An upper level low pressure area centered along the Texas/Oklahoma border will rapidly move eastward into the Tennessee Valley today.
621 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Primary concern for the short term revolves around the low stratus and potential for fog overnight into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings show decent lift in the lower levels and only a brief window near sunrise where this lift abates and dew point depressions drop. This low stratus is also leading to lower confidence in today's high temperature forecast. Have trended today's temps upward, into the low to middle 50s west of Highway 83, where clearing looks most probable by this afternoon. Friday looks to be rather quiet with high temps a few degrees warmer area wide than they are today.
/Updated at 0741 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ Latest water vapor imagery shows Zeta move into the Carolinas with a closed low spinning over the Southern Plains. Winds will generally remain gusty through the day as the low over the Southern Plains moves to the east-northeast and a cold front moves through the region. The cold front will move through the area overnight, with temperatures dropping fairly rapidly behind the front.
329 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Flow aloft will begin a gradual shift to the west today as a trough moving from the Gulf of Alaska toward the Pacific Northwest slightly amplifies the ridge over the West Coast. The shift in flow will bring increased warm air advection which will translate into warmer surface temperatures this afternoon. Though warmer, afternoon highs are expected to remain below normal for all but the southern portion of the forecast area where temperatures will be more seasonal. On Friday, the Gulf of Alaska trough sweeps over the Pacific Northwest and moves to the northern Rockies on Friday. Except for continued warming, conditions across the forecast area will remain largely unchanged ahead of the trough.
640 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 This morning, the closed upper level low, which is the catalyst for this current round of precipitation, is evident on water vapor imagery across the Red River Valley. This upper low will continue to trek east moving into Arkansas this afternoon. A return quasi-zonal flow aloft and late day modest WAA will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 50s on Friday.
07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper low along the Red River valley. Ridging off the CA coast had the mean westerlies over the Pacific Northwest and into the northern plains. At the surface, an inverted trough of low pressure extended west from the remnants of Zeta into the Ozarks and northern OK. Weak high pressure was seen over the northern plains. The 00Z NAM appears to be having some difficulty with the boundary layer keeping it saturated and cooler than other guidance. This may help mixing across north central KS and keep lows in the lower 30s while eastern counties fall into the upper 20s and around 30.
Dry and sunny today and again on Friday with temperatures continuing to trend warmer. Winds may get a little gusty across portions of Humboldt and Elko Counties Friday afternoon and evening as a dry cold front clips northern NV.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A mid-level low over northern Texas this morning will move eastward as 500 mb ridging builds overhead resulting in subsidence through the period. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 40s inland, except the lower 50s near the coast.
626 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 12Z TAFS There has been a brief lull in wind speeds early this morning, but northwesterly flow will increase and become gusty after sunrise through the day in the wake of the strong cold front that pushed through the area yesterday evening. /issued 415 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ What a difference 24 hours makes! Early morning sfc analysis shows now Tropical Storm Zeta zipping quickly newd across the TN Valley while the cold front which brought fall-like weather to the forecast area yesterday is now located over sern LA. sfc obs/IR imagery indicate the last of the low-level cloud cover approaching the Atchafalaya Basin at this time.
As an upper level low pressure center moves across the area this morning, conditions will improve from west to east as cigs and vsbys raise to VFR conditions in the 18z-22z period. /Issued 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020/ Morning water vapor imagery shows the well-defined upper cyclone tracking east along the Red River, with the primary band of moderate showers observed along the KS/OK border. HREF solution looks good swinging this band of precipitation east-southeast today, with rainfall eventually shifting east of the area this afternoon as the upper cyclone eventually tracks into southern AR. Might need a Freeze Warning for parts of northeast OK/northwest AR (some freezing fog possible too), but will defer that decision to the day shift.
1116 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 The upper low centered over Texas and Oklahoma will be moving off to the east today. Northwest flow over the central High Plains region will turn more westerly on Friday as a trough approaches from the northwest U.
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Most of the forecast area is under clear skies this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s as high pressure builds in from the west.
Temperatures to the south of that boundary had risen into the mid 40s while to the north and east had pushed at least into the mid 30s, thankfully, ending the risk of freezing rain.
Intense upper level low along the Red River/south central OK/north TX will move east through southern AR this morning. Warm air/instability aloft wrapping around the low is producing a band of convection from the TX/OK Panhandles to eastern KS with some embedded thunderstorms. As the upper low shifts east we should see clearing move in from the west and northwest this afternoon and evening.
With very dry air in the lower atmosphere, the precipitation is struggling to reach the surface at this time. On Friday, as lower pressure develops in the lee of the Canadian Rockies winds will turn to the south and bring warmer air northward.