Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure across NorCal will remain through the start of the weekend. Some high clouds spilling over the ridge are possible from time to time.
344 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Cold front currently making its way southward through the mid state.
However, the consensus and wpc opinion is to throw out the bitter cold GFS and go with the much faster cold front and drier/not as cold ECMWF and Canadian solutions.
Graphical guidance suggests the low clouds may bank up against the E slopes of the central mountain chain tonight, impacting LVS as well; but MOS keeps LVS free of low clouds, resulting in some uncertainty there. Colder temperatures reach further south to Roswell Wednesday with some potential for areas of freezing drizzle Wednesday morning in eastern New Mexico.
322 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2017 Arctic high pressure builds into the region this week, resulting in a prolonged period of very cold weather. A trough is expected to sweep over the region at the end of the week. At the same time, low pressure may develop off the Southeast coast and lift northeast.
330 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Low amplitude trough and associated ascent continues to shift away from east TX this afternoon, pulling weak showers with it. This will also aid in shifting reinforcing cold front now moving into central TX offshore tonight. Overall should see a trend towards somewhat warmer weather into late week/early weekend before yet another cold front ushers in return to much below normal temps to start the New Year. A cold front will cross the region later tonight and early Wednesday.
These ceilings, however, should start to lift gradually as backing northeast surface winds begin to transport drier (and cooler) air into the D10 area. The low level isentropic ascent across the area should also diminish after 00z, which should limit the potential for any additional shower activity.
The large Arctic upper low is centered over Hudson Bay this afternoon, which has established a broad trough over most of CONUS, except for the far West, where a ridge in building in. However, as the western ridge makes its presence felt, the front will begin to shift east. By tomorrow, the Hudson Bay low begins to weaken and the upper trough flattens somewhat.
Although believe most areas will see rain, KELD could see a brief period of freezing rain between 09z and 12z, where temperatures may fall below freezing. Amounts should be light, but light icing could be an issue across southern Arkansas where freezing temperatures are expected late tonight. Max temps this afternoon will be a tough call, as warmer temps aloft within the overrunning regime will tend to warm temps at the sfc with the persistent -RA, but given the expected light nature of this, warming may be minimal, and thus have trimmed back max temps areawide some 2-4 degrees. In fact, temps should hold fairly steady through the day with only minimal warming expected as the modifying arctic ridge remains in place across the region.
Cold front continue to sag slowly south across southeast OK and western AR and will clear the region this aftenoon.
Patchy freezing fog over portions of central and north-central Oregon will gradually lift as the day progresses, but could return tonight.
Forecast for tonight still on track as high pressure builds into Illinois. Broad troughing over North America is expected to be in place at least through the workweek. Rapidly moving weak disturbances plunging southeast into the trough base will impact our weather through that period with shots at snow followed by reinforcing shots of arctic air.
Low amplitude trough continues to skirt the area with associated ascent supporting scattered light showers mainly north of Houston and over the gulf near coastal front stalled offshore. Regardless, cloudy or mostly cloud skies will keep cool temps in place inland, with some mild readings possibly spreading into the immediate coast as warm front lifts a bit through the afternoon. A cold front will cross the region early Wednesday and may briefly get some MVFR cigs after 15z. Moderate to strong east winds will prevail through early Wednesday before another weak cold front crosses the region Weds morning.
Periods of freezing rain will also be possible at both LAW/SPS thruogh the afternoon into evening hours. /issued 427 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2017/ The primary forecast issues are freezing drizzle today and the cold front timing for the upcoming weekend. For today, freezing drizzle is expected to develop across southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas later this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued to account for the upcoming freezing drizzle event. Some locations within the advisory area may initially above freezing; however, by this evening, any locations that are above freezing in western north Texas should fall below freezing. The most likely areas to initially be above freezing during onset would be eastern/southern parts of Clay and Archer counties.
Short-term forecast of warmer than normal conditions and periods of upper level cloudiness remains on track. A ridge of high pressure will remain stationed along the west coast of the United States into the coming weekend.
324 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Tonight: This afternoon, a deep upper-deck low continued to cover Ontario but was weakening while upper-deck ridging was punching NNW from just off the Pacific Northwest Coast to the Gulf Of Alaska. The GFS takes a MUCH STRONGER & FASTER approach on the SE track of the Arctic High, bringing it as far south as the Nebraska/Kansas state line late New Year's Eve night & early New Year's Day morning whereas the ECMWF brings it only as far as the Dakotas/MN with the attendant inverted ridge reaching as far as around the IA/MO state line. MVFR cigs will affect the higher terrain of central Kansas including the KRSL/KGBD terminals through much of the forecast valid period.
A cold front will cross the region later tonight and early Wednesday. Low amplitude trough continues to skirt the area with associated ascent supporting scattered light showers mainly north of Houston and over the gulf near coastal front stalled offshore. Regardless, cloudy or mostly cloud skies will keep cool temps in place inland, with some mild readings possibly spreading into the immediate coast as warm front lifts a bit through the afternoon.
A cold front will cause moderate gusty north northeast winds to develop as it pushes through the region overnight into Wednesday morning.
257 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2017 An arctic cold front will gradually sag south through the region tonight through Wednesday and will stall south of the region Wednesday night.
123 PM PST Tue Dec 26 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the west coast will provide a quiet and dry end to the year with above average daytime temperatures, areas of high clouds and light valley winds. There is some potential for cooler temperatures and weaker storm systems moving through the region during the first week of January.
Warmer air aloft moving into the region, combined with cold air trapped at the surface, is enhancing a temperature inversion at the low levels today. Light snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected in the higher elevations of Baker County, and in the West Central and Boise Mountains of southwest Idaho. Moisture spilling up and over the ridge anchored offshore will create chances of precipitation for our northern mountains for the start of the period.
139 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2017 High pressure will continue to sit over the region this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the area. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s.
The upper ridge just off the west coast will remain in place through at least the end of the week. Downstream from this ridge a mostly dry and mild west-northwest flow aloft will exist across the interior west for the next several days.
Patchy freezing fog has been reported near CTB and HVR, so have added this to the late morning forecast for the North-central plains. Patchy freezing fog is creating variable MVFR/IFR conditions at area terminals this morning, as reported by ASOS. Beneath this high, very dry air and lighter winds are allowing temperatures to fall well below zero.
239 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Freezing drizzle/light freezing rain has occurred over portions of southwest OK and western north TX this afternoon and is expected to continue across portions of this area into the evening. Drier air moving into the area will eventually cause the freezing drizzle to end later this evening. Cold tonight with single digit lows possible across northern OK and teens to the low 20s possible across the rest of the fa.
Hi pres over the Carolinas will be absorbed and pulled west by a much stronger polar ridge building SE out of the nrn/central plains. Broad mid/upper trough will persist over the eastern half of the CONUS with several weak jet streak/short waves rotating through base of trough with minimal surface reflection. Large 1045 or so high pressure will keep onshore flow across the area through mid week with a slight chance to chance of showers under subsidence inversion.
237 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Cold high pressure will drift across the area tonight, allowing for another very cold night/morning. As a relatively weak wave moves into the Central Plains on Wednesday the west and southwest flow in the low to mid levels will increase.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Colder weather is on the way, with a cold front expected across the ranchlands and brush country between 9 pm and 3 am tonight, and arriving in the lower valley between 3 am and 9 am Wednesday morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s across the ranchlands and brush country to the lower 60s for the lower valley.
226 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 A strong cold front continues to push through the area this afternoon with temperatures in the 30's and 40's across the Permian Basin and 60's and 70's ahead of the front. Isentropic upglide has already started as evidenced by the low clouds across the Western Low Rolling Plains. As such, even light freezing drizzle has been enough to cause issues on bridges and overpasses in the past. Temperatures won't budge much Wednesday under cloudy skies and many locations in the Permian Basin may not even reach freezing. Luckily, the boundary layer will continue to dry so any freezing drizzle should diminish by late morning. Upper ridging will build to our west late this week while southerly flow returns at the surface.
Another weak wave will move through an upper trough aloft that is over the region tonight.
High pressure strengthens through midweek with a slight warming trend and ongoing dry conditions. 12z nam and gfs support high pressure the rest of this week and into the weekend. Thus, temperatures will warm into the upper 50s across the northern portion of the region to the lower 70s across the Central Coast. High pressure off of the California coast is forecast to build through late week and result in a slight warming trend. The ECMWF has shifted to show high pressure breaking down as a deepening mid/upper level trough approaches the West Coast.
Wind Chills: High pressure will begin to nudge into the region; therefore, expect skies to remain mostly clear with dry conditions across the interior west and central. Cold air and upper troughing remain over the area this forecast period with lake effect snow continuing as well. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough with cold air over the central U. Heavy freezing spray will also linger across much of the lake into Wednesday morning.
Troughing in place over the forecast area with anomalously cold temperatures aloft will result in continued well below normal temperatures. Winds will become more northwesterly overnight and reinitialize slight snow shower chances along and north of the I 80 corridor as well as the higher elevations of WV and MD zones, but no problems are anticipated given limited mixing heights and ambient dry advection.
An Atlantic ridge extends across Cuba to the Yucatan with nearly zonal flow above the Gulf Region. Surface - High pressure across the northern plains tracks to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. propelling a cold front through the Deep south to Gulf and Atlantic coasts. In response high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states. and ridging down over the Gulf of Mexico and FL. The high pressure to the north will maintain northerly flow tonight and Wed. The bulk of this moisture remains in the lower levels and with light northeasterly flow will provide a set-up for patchy late night to early morning fog.
1022 AM MST Tue Dec 26 2017 Current surface analysis shows arctic front well south and west of the forecast area, with high pressure centered over far eastern MT. Upper level analysis continues to show low over western Ontario, with broad trough covering much of Canada and the US.
337 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2017 High pressure will slowly build toward the region through late week. A low pressure system tracking northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, a trough extending west across southeastern Canada. The trough over Southern Canada will push south into Northern Maine by the end of the period.
Highs are on track to top out in the low single digits. Temperatures will remain quite cold for the rest of the week, which could contribute to a freezing spray risk near open waters.
Persistent cloud cover prevented the west side valleys from dropping to near freezing this morning, but with the offshore flow the northern coast did get near freezing. Adjusted the hourly temperatures to account for the warmer morning temperatures. A high pressure ridge is bringing dry and stable conditions to the area this morning. East of the Cascades areas of freezing fog have developed in the Klamath Basin, including at Klamath Falls. So there remains a slight chance for light precipitation to fall as freezing rain for northern Klamath county late Wednesday morning, mainly from Modoc Point north to near Chemult. Overall the risk is slight as models show temperatures hovering near or just above freezing then gradually warming as the light precipitation moves into the area. Weak ridging builds into the area behind this system on Wednesday night.
Short range models have been very consistent in bringing in drier air at the low levels and in weakening the frontogenesis over the area. The 12z GFS is an outlier regarding a deep trof digging into the wrn Plains this weekend as the low currently south of AK phases with a trof currently over Hudson Bay region. For now, have kept PoPs capped in the low chance range with limited precip. The exception will likely be over the higher elevations of the eastern Ozarks where MVFR ceilings will slowly move south and clear out through 06Z.
242 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2017 Broad upper trough continues across much of the CONUS, with the area under deep northwest flow. Surface analysis shows strong arctic high pressure across the Dakotas with southerly low level flow developing over the last few hours.
252 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Arctic high pressure centered in the Dakotas and into Nebraska was supplying plenty of sunshine to the dvn cwa. Tonight and Wednesday: Arctic high pressure will settle into the cwa during this time frame.
Drizzle or freezing drizzle will be possible tonight. /issued 419 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2017/ Our next cold front is set to move through the region today, entering northern areas later this morning. High temperatures east of the Pecos River look to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Later this afternoon and evening, low clouds will develop from east to west as warm, moist air begins to move over the much cooler airmass. The main concern is the potential for freezing drizzle to impact areas mainly near and east of the Pecos River late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, where temperatures fall below freezing. Still not expecting much accumulation, however some light icing on bridges and elevated surface may create problems for the morning commute.
Max temps this afternoon will be a tough call, as warmer temps aloft within the overrunning regime will tend to warm temps at the sfc with the persistent -RA, but given the expected light nature of this, warming may be minimal, and thus have trimmed back max temps areawide some 2-4 degrees. In fact, temps should hold fairly steady through the day with only minimal warming expected as the modifying arctic ridge remains in place across the region.
High pressure is centered across the northern Plains, with very cold air gradually building southeast into the lower Ohio Valley. Another mostly cloudy has been on tap for eastern Kentucky, with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 30s across the area. Some of the higher resolution models suggest a glancing blow of measurable snowfall north of I-64, but given the dry low levels and weakening trend to the mid-level short wave, will keep POPs low. A gradient of warmer readings will be found towards the Tennessee/Virginia border, where lower 20s will be more common.
1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Hot temperatures will be in store for today and especially on Monday as southwest winds bring warmer low-level air into the region. Temperatures could approach triple digits for some locations on Monday as compressional warming/down slope effects occur ahead of approaching cold front.
353 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Low pressure will lift north out of New England overnight. A shallow ridge of high pressure will move east through the region on Monday.
228 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Main concerns during this period are with Monday temperatures, and timing of thunderstorm activity with the cold front. Strengthening cold front currently over the Northern Plains will be moving into northern parts of the CWA by midday Monday. Main focus the remainder of the work week remains with the shift to a much cooler weather pattern, as a long wave trough digs southward across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This trough will be slow to exit, but the western ridge is expected to finally nudge it eastward toward the first part of the weekend.
217 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build across the Carolinas through tonight, then drift offshore Monday. L/W trough exiting central NC this morning will veer the wind flow to a more west-nw direction. Afternoon highs should be in the low-mid 80s. The drier air arrival will be made evident as afternoon dewpoints should drop into the 50s across the Piedmont and the lower 60s over the coastal plain. Tonight, high pressure will settle overhead, maintaining a tranquil weather pattern. Warmer, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s, and lows, with light sswly stirring return flow, in the lower to middle 60s.
Current forecast of isolated showers and thunderstorms looks on track with the highest potential over western Coconino and Yavapai counties. Otherwise high pressure aloft to remain over the Great basin for much of this week, and bring above normal max temperatures.
However, things will start to change late in the day as a cold front approaches. The front may bring a subtle drop in temperatures behind it but the bulk of the cooler air won't arrive until later.
313 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 The short term concern remains timing of incoming cold front and convective potential with it and the upper trough for Monday afternoon. Still looks like the cold front will be dropping close to a KRCX- KMSP-KMKT line around 06z. With the cold upper trough moving over the area Monday, scattered showers and isolated thunder look to be a good threat over much of the central and east, mainly in the afternoon.
331 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Weak cold front has pushed through the forecast area this morning leaving dry and warm conditions for this afternoon and evening. The light southwesterly winds will begin to increase late morning into the early afternoon as a new cold front pushes its way into the region. Cold front is expected to exit the CWA by 0600 UTC, with a band of frontogenetically enhanced showers possible moving from north to south very late Monday night.
151 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Weak high pressure through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. Weak high pressure lingers through Monday. A strong cold front approaches Monday night. Labor Day is looking like a great day with mostly sunny skies with weak high pressure overhead.
155 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 High pressure will build in today bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures. The warming trend will continue on labor day with highs in the lower and middle 80s. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase toward sunset Monday, with thunderstorms likely monday night as a cold front cross the region. Mid level trof axis will continue to rotate off to the east thru the eastern Great Lakes, placing the Ohio Valley in the northwest flow. Few sprinkles associated with weakening sfc trof have moved out of the region and dissipated. This sunshine will allow for warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s.
/issued 1052 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the SE US through TX, giving light and variable winds. /issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ Tranquil weather continued overnight with temperatures cooling into the upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south. a northerly flow continues as high pressure continues over the area. perhaps just a tad cooler along the coastal interface of land and water.
333 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 (Tonight and Monday) Upper level low has dropped south across the border and now is spinning away just west of Del Rio this afternoon. Residual low level moisture from last nights rainfall, along with mid and upper level moisture and lift from the upper low should be enough to generate isolated showers and storms across about the southern half of West Central Texas late this afternoon and early this evening. Otherwise, temperatures should be a little warmer than the readings we are seeing today, but will remain at or a little below normal for the first week of September.
/Issued 1020 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ High pressure will continue across the CWFA through today. /issued 412 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ A strong mid level trough continues to move through the Carolinas with drier air working into the area in its wake. Light WNW flow at the surface is also allowing cooler temps to filter into the area with mid 50s across the northern tier and lower 60s across the metro. On the back side of aforementioned trough, we are looking at very tranquil conditions through the short term period.
248 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Strong upper high entrenched over the region with very warm and dry airmass over Colorado. A bit cooler on Monday in prefrontal airmass before main front poised to move into northeast Colorado Monday evening. Monday night the large upper level ridge of high pressure will stretch from the Pacific Northwest into the Desert Southwest. with an upper level trough of low pressure deepening across the central and eastern United States. A strong short wave on the back side of the upper trough will push a strong cold front across northeastern Colorado Monday night.
/Issued 1259 PM PDT Sun Sep 3 2017/ High pressure will provide unseasonably hot temperatures and light winds into the early part of the work week.
122 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Widespread rain will move through the North Country today as the remains of Harvey interact with upper level low pressure across the northeast. The trough was a bit slower to phase with the remnants of Harvey and thus the trough isn't quite as strong as initially thought which has caused the threat of the strong southeasterly downslope winds to decrease some. I still anticipate 25-35 mph wind gusts to be possible but based on Bufkit soundings the inversion height should be just below the ridgeline. The trough clears the North Country late this evening but there will be some lingering rain during the evening so unfortunately outdoor activities may end up with some rainfall. As the flow turns northwest behind the trough anticipate some orographic rain to linger around as Froude numbers show highly blocked flow.
259 PM CDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Warm and humid conditions will come to an ed across the region tonight as strong cold front moves through the region.