Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mid-level trough will set up over the central Carolinas, and at the surface, a weak lee trough will persist. Lows Tuesday night will again be in the lower-70s. The weak upper trough to the northwest will amplify slightly as it gradually migrates eastward into the mid-Atlantic region through the weekend.
In its wake, a clear sky was found across much of western Kansas, which allowed temperatures to fall into the lower 60s. For today, a leeside trough will redevelop across eastern Colorado, and weak to locally moderate convergence along the lee trough will promote development of late afternoon thunderstorms, initially west of the Colorado-Kansas border. This will mainly be in response to the increased deep tropospheric subsidence with the expanding upper high pressure.
1206 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 High pressure extending westward into the Carolinas from the central Atlantic will maintain light south winds along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through Tue night while at the surface weak Bermuda High lingers offshore. The sea breeze and Piedmont trough will continue to be the main features of note.
At the surface, a cold front has become nearly stationary near the Interstate 70 corridor, and this boundary is not expected to make much additional progress to the south. This will allow maximum readings to reach a few degrees warmer, and will also introduce the potential for thunderstorms with weak isentropic ascent.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours due to mid-level high pressure dominating the synoptic pattern. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Tues morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. /issued 248 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500 mb high pressure over Texas will continue to dominate in the short term. As the ridge continues to build into Tuesday subsidence should lead to a slight drying of the atmosphere marginally lowering PoPs for the remainder of the short term, though isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out.
Patchy fog will be possible across the Highway 84 corridor early on Tuesday. A broad 500 mb ridge over the southern tier of the country will continue to keep the weather relatively quiet over Central MS and the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, a high pressure ridge has slowly moved to the Atlantic coast, and the more active northern stream is beginning to spur waves across the country, bringing storm systems a little closer for tomorrow. keeping them in the low to mid 100s.
Warmer air at mid levels will also cap the environment, so despite some weak energy in the flow, we are not likely to see any convection develop. Wind fields will remain rather weak today in the low levels, so despite the hot and dry conditions (RH readings in the teens), no fire weather highlights for today in our CWA.
The highest probabilities will be across southern portions of the region. A weak, baggy upper level trough/low over the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday night will drift slowly east northeast across the upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Pleasant weather is expected throughout the short term as high pressure remains over the Northland with zonal flow in the upper levels. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Skies tomorrow will be mostly clear, with high temps in the low 80s. These gusty winds are a result of a pressure gradient between high pressure over southern MN and low pressure over northern Ontario. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
1102 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Debris from convection to our south is quickly departing this afternoon, which will leave mostly clear skies for tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. Ridging will keep things fair and dry through Tuesday, then we'll start to see return flow setup Tuesday night, with a small chance of some showers and thunderstorms getting into the west by Wednesday morning. A low amplitude ridge over the north central US at midweek will shift east and amplify during the second half of the week as an upper trough develops to our west.
1049 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Latest 19z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Ontario Canada into southern Iowa.
330 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Waa in advance of short wave trough in WY early this morning was bringing some mid level accas showers/storms in eastern WY. Otherwise, the main short wave trough in WY will bring the main round of showers and storms to our cwa later this afternoon and night. Good ll moisture and instability will continue to advect in through the day in advance of this short wave trough. This first round of convection will end Wednesday morning with more development possible in the afternoon with another short wave trough coming in from the southwest.
A boundary is setting up just to our north while, behind it, high pressure is centered in the Upper Midwest. Today, Southeast Missouri will see the highest chances of showers and storms.
300 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Skies were mostly clear early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across the cranberry bogs of Central Wisconsin to the low 60s in far Southwest Wisconsin. Patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, with a mostly sunny day expected under high pressure. Highs are expected to be seasonable in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the 50s providing very comfortable weather. With high pressure providing a deep light wind layer tonight, will have to watch out for some valley fog, but increasing return flow by early morning may not be conducive for a more widespread valley fog event.
The remainder of the week will remain warmer than normal and unsettled, with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard will give way to a trough rotating out of the Ohio Valley today. A much warmer than normal air mass will combine with high dew points to produce heat indices between 90 and 95 degrees across portions of the northern and western forecast area. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough late Tuesday afternoon, especially after 4 PM. Weak high pressure will build up from the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday. The slowly moving cold front makes its way into NE PA on Wednesday becoming a focal point for the development of showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front is slowly moving south into the CWA and is aligned across Wisconsin-bordering counties as of 2am. This slow forward motion will likely continue through the day as high pressure over western Iowa builds eastward. However, some shallow fog or localized fog in low spots could occur as temps fall into the mid to upper 50s outside of the Chicago metro as the high pressure drifts across northern Illinois. A repeat of today is expected on Wednesday, albeit slightly warmer, as the high pressure begins to shift to the east.
A cold front is slowly moving south into the CWA and is aligned across Wisconsin-bordering counties as of 2am. This slow forward motion will likely continue through the day as high pressure over western Iowa builds eastward. However, some shallow fog or localized fog in low spots could occur as temps fall into the mid to upper 50s outside of the Chicago metro as the high pressure drifts across northern Illinois. A repeat of today is expected on Wednesday, albeit slightly warmer, as the high pressure begins to shift to the east. A somewhat stagnant pattern looks to develop mid- week into the upcoming weekend as mid-level ridging builds northward into Hudson Bay. The cold front crossing the area this evening should ultimately wash out well south of the CWA.
High pressure will push our above average heat to near record levels the second half of the week. Broad high pressure across most of the southern tier states continues to dominate our weather with temperatures well above average. As the western portion of the ridge strengthens, the high center is still expected to reconsolidate over southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico over the next 36 hours. Add in mid level subsidence close to the high center and storm coverage will continue to be below average for the time being.
The upper ridge will remain located over the Southern Plains leaving the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the 70s.
409 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Under mostly clear skies and light east winds, temperatures are primarily in the lower 80s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting a few short lived showers on the waters in and around Dry Tortugas, the outer waters of Mainland Monroe and on the distant waters beyond 40 nm south of the Lower Keys. However, outflow boundaries emanating off Southwest Florida could enhance the threat of cells reaching the Lower Keys this evening.
1255 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 High pressure extending westward into the Carolinas from the central Atlantic will maintain light south winds along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak troughing aloft will remain in place through Tue night while at the surface weak Bermuda High lingers offshore. The sea breeze and Piedmont trough will continue to be the main features of note.
High pressure over the central Great Plains will then move to nrn IL and WI for Tue aft-Wed. Warm temps in the lower to middle 80s are expected each afternoon but with much lower relative humidity. Gehring (Issued 302 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020) Tonight and Tuesday: As thunderstorms gradually wrap up with the passage of the cold front wind will shift to the northwest. Cloud cover is expected to decrease overnight as high pressure builds in resulting in pleasant conditions Tuesday. Sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm into the low 80s, but temperatures could be a little cooler by the lake as the lake breeze kicks in this afternoon.
340 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 High pressure will keep the area mostly sunny and dry today with high temperatures in the 80s. Tonight, high pressure slides off to the east and the low level flow becomes more southerly and starts to advect more humid air into the region. Dewpoints will be on the rise into the low to mid 60s in the eastern CWA, and will approach 70 in the western part of Minnesota making things feel pretty muggy. Westerly mid-flow prevails through the remainder of the work week, and then a western trough ejects east to reach the north central CONUS for the weekend.
May be a focus for attempted convection this afternoon but given the strengthening ridge aloft, getting anything to develop looks really difficult.
In wake of short term storms this evening little to discuss as sfc ridging builds across the lakes and pushes active frontal zone south of the OH river. Post-frontal ridge over Iowa will move east into southern portion of Upper Great Lakes by end of forecast period. Recency of frontal passage and lagged dewpoint boundary associated with upstream secondary cold front should allow for BR formation over northeast Indiana, though convective debris and some degree of mixing should aim to preclude incursions into IFR.
Weak, mid-level troughing will cross the Ohio Valley today with a weak sfc frontal boundary in tow. The stalled front will linger to our south through much of the week with persistent, weak troughing aloft. Northern portions of the area will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit better rain chances to south and east of Pittsburgh.
A mid-level trough will set up over the central Carolinas, and at the surface, a weak lee trough will persist. Lows Tuesday night will again be in the lower-70s. Surface southerly flow will maintain a moist airmass across the region, with dew point temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s.
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Not much change to the overall weather pattern as we remain positioned within the northeast quadrant of a sprawling subtropical ridge centered near El Paso. Regardless, the upper ridge will provide yet another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and lower triple digits. Temperatures tonight will again be mild/warm, with lows mostly in the lower to middle 70s. Pattern remains the same for the remainder of the work week as well, and into the weekend, as a persistent amplified upper level ridge continues to linger over the southwest and southcentral CONUS.
and Wednesday A sunny and warm, but much less humid day is expected today, in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. Will keep our dry forecast intact, with high pressure remaining over the western Great Lakes. Temperatures may a degree or two warmer than today, with highs in the lower to middle 80s inland. Developing light southeast winds will keep readings a little cooler along the lakeshore, where highs should be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
This activity will primarily be confined to the warm sector along and south of the cold front where a more unstable airmass will reside, generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Given persistent cloud cover throughout the day today, high temperatures should generally be a few degrees cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s.
For today, weak mid and upper level ridging will act to reduce convection, some, through early or mid afternoon. Then, that aforementioned MO trough will begin to slowly move our way with activity picking up to our west. On Wednesday, upper trough to our west might attempt to circulate a bit more with the axis approaching the MS river.
Warm air advection will ensue on the backside of the high, and in response temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s today. Surface ridging continues to strengthen over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, with warmer and increasingly humid air feeding into our area. With dew points into the lower 70s, the heat index will climb to near 100 over south central SD.
240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 (Issued 240 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020) Today through Wednesday: High pressure is expected to move slowly east across the region today and tonight, then move slowly east of the region on Wednesday. The high will bring quiet weather with mostly clear skies to the area during this period.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will also remain nearly stationary tonight into Tuesday. Since this feature has already pushed west of the Atlantic metro, the highest POPs will reside along the Gulf Coast and Lake Okeechobee Region this afternoon and early evening. Atlantic metro looks to miss out mostly in this pattern as the low level flow affecting the sea breeze is easterly. Deep ridging will remain prominent over the western Atlantic as an upper trough advances into the eastern states late in the period. South Florida should remain along the southwest portion of the ridge periphery. A modest increase in the pressure gradient should increase the low-level easterly flow a bit, but the increase should be modest.
High pressure to our north currently will settle east of the CWA by tomorrow and remain into midweek, and lee-side troughing over the eastern Rockies/Front Range. These system will interact with the aforementioned lee-side trough, triggering a round of showers and storms by late afternoon and trend eastward into the evening hours. Precip clears the CWA to the east late Tuesday night with high pressure building over the area going into the morning hrs Wednesday.
A recent surface analysis places a center of high pressure over the SD/IA/MN corners and a stalled out front in northwest Kansas extending into northern Missouri left over from yesterday's derecho that blew through the area.
1242 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Bermuda ridge offshore. Surface to 700mb trough over the Carolinas forecast to strengthen to a closed low over or near the area Wednesday. Models indicate the upper level short wave trough axis moving east of the Midlands Tuesday morning with slight upper ridging in from the west through Wednesday night. Temperatures remain near normal with highs mostly in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Upper level ridge to our south across FL and the Gulf will provide an increase in moisture to the region, with SW flow strengthening into the weekend.
The remainder of the week will remain warmer than normal and unsettled, with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard will give way to a trough rotating out of the Ohio Valley today. A much warmer than normal air mass will combine with high dew points to produce heat indices between 90 and 95 degrees across portions of the northern and western forecast area. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough late Tuesday afternoon, especially after 4 PM. Weak high pressure will build up from the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday. EURO is more aggressive with the high and drying while the GFS keeps the moisture a bit further north increasing the risk of showers over NEPA. Period is controlled by high pressure ridging into the area from Southeast Canada.
349 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 It's been quiet/dry during the predawn hours with cooler temps in the 50s and 60s in the post frontal airmass.
The forecast reflects this thinking, showing higher PoPs in the north today and mainly over the higher terrain of SW VA and far northeast TN. Temperatures should be warmer than yesterday given less expansive morning time convection and resulting cloud cover.
Highs should be a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 80s. Southwest flow aloft sets up for the latter half of the week as an upper low moves across northern Alberta.
Weak upper level trough moving through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This is where the western flank of the fully mature MCV has left to brush through coincident with the cold front. Considerable coverage of low clouds to start the day breaks up during late morning to early afternoon in time to allow high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure gains traction over the Great Lakes tonight bringing clear sky, light wind, and pleasant temperatures settling to lows in the upper 50s outside of metro Detroit. This kicks off a stretch of favorable weather anchored by high pressure lasting through the mid and late week period.
/issued 410 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ Another humid morning across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the lower 80s as of 3 AM. The Mid-South will get placed under northwest flow again as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest and a trough builds to our east. This setup could lead to temperatures trending back into the lower 90s through the weekend.
410 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Today and Tonight: A mid and upper-level ridge of high pressure will still make its presence felt across the region today, although mid-level ridging will translate a little farther south today. Around the periphery of the ridge, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: A mid and upper-level ridge of high pressure will still make its presence felt across the region today, although mid-level ridging will translate a little farther south today. Around the periphery of the ridge, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
The overall synoptic pattern remains unchanged with 500mb high pressure building across West Texas through mid-week. On Wednesday, similar conditions continue with slightly drier air moving into the lower levels.
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 High pressure was centered over northwest Iowa at 07Z/2AM. A weak surface trof will move through the area with a bit of cold air advection behind it. Mid level ridging stays nearby and will keep the region dry. However, they do agree with the GEM and ECMWF that a short wave trof is progged to move into the area. Dry air will remain over the eastern edge of the forecast area Wednesday night with high pressure nearby.
Hot interior temperatures moderated some today, and will remain closer to seasonal normals for most of the week as broad troughing develops over the West Coast.
Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s at most locations and these readings should be pretty steady through sunrise. Beginning on Wednesday, a weak sfc cold front will push southward from Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky and stall overhead as a stationary frontal boundary. With an already warm and saturated environment in place, humid conditions are expected for the rest of the week with sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Another muggy night is forecast, with lows in the lower 70s. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures should be limited a tad into the lower 90s. Shower activity should once again taper off Wed evening with a loss of daytime heating, with lows in the lower 70s.
548 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A cold front will drop through central Illinois today. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Chicago metro southwestward to near Kirksville, Missouri. High pressure will build into north-central Illinois tonight, pushing the front further southward toward the Ohio River. High pressure will dominate the weather across much of central Illinois on Wednesday.
/issued 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ Not much change to the overall weather pattern as we remain positioned within the northeast quadrant of a sprawling subtropical ridge centered near El Paso. Regardless, the upper ridge will provide yet another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and lower triple digits. Temperatures tonight will again be mild/warm, with lows mostly in the lower to middle 70s. Pattern remains the same for the remainder of the work week as well, and into the weekend, as a persistent amplified upper level ridge continues to linger over the southwest and southcentral CONUS.
These developments are in response to an upper trough settling into the Pacific Northwest and weakening the ridge over California a bit. The warming trend is then expected to continue through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest gradually expands west and northward across California.
Elsewhere, things should stay dry today, as yesterday's cold front has washed out and low-level forcing along its leftovers is quite low. Highs will range from the low 90s in the southwest half of the forecast area to the mid and upper 80s in the northeast half. A few showers leftover from upstream convection may persist Wednesday morning, mainly across far northeast Kansas, but coverage of any precipitation should once again be on the lower side. Given a southwest/northeast thermal gradient in the low levels and a SSE low level jet, the environment may be favorable for a southeastward propagating convective system.
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Clear to partly cloudy skies prevail this morning; the forecast remains on track with temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 80s. Highs this afternoon will be couple of degrees cooler in that area versus the mid 80s in the south where winds have already shifted and dew points have started to rise. Highs should be a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 80s. Southwest flow aloft sets up for the latter half of the week as an upper low moves across northern Alberta.
Waa in advance of short wave trough in WY early this morning was bringing some mid level accas showers/storms in eastern WY. Otherwise, the main short wave trough in WY will bring the main round of showers and storms to our cwa later this afternoon and night. Good ll moisture and instability will continue to advect in through the day in advance of this short wave trough. This first round of convection will end Wednesday morning with more development possible in the afternoon with another short wave trough coming in from the southwest. Otherwise, a short wave trough coming in from the west will bring more numerous showers/storms to the region this afternoon and tonight with all airports possibly being affected at or in the vicinity.