Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
550 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS 15-20 KTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE (1003 MILLIBARS) MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ALABAMA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SHARP AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANY EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE COULD TAP INTO THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND CREATE STRONG WIND GUSTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE NORTHEAST FL COAST BY SUNRISE. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AND WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
740 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCD UPR TROF WL ALSO CONT WORKING EWD THRU AR AS WELL.
THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND 14Z TO 15Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A TIME FOLLOWING THE FRONT. /ISSUED 305 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND PICKED UP A BIT ON THE CAPROCK IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
748 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016 NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 40 MPH SO THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER WEST.
A cold front will bring north winds, with gusts up to 20 KTS at KABI towards noon, and KSJT and KBBD early to mid afternoon. Ahead of the trough/front highs in the 80s are likely (Tuesday night through Monday) Upper level ridging will build across the area during the second half of the work week, resulting in spring like temperatures.
839 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER ALL BUT OUR ERN TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. MOIST SOILS FROM MORNING RAINFALL COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DESPITE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO SEE SOME IN AND OUT SMALL AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT.
Rain will shift north through the evening, with KGPI having the highest chance for precipitation overnight. Rain will continue to affect much of the Northern Rockies today, with snow confined to the highest terrain.
A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE WAS NOTED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THE SAME 00Z BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TUPELO SHOWED THE LOWEST 40-50MB AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
637 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
714 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL PASS INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY WINDS DO LOOK TO PICK UP LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SEAS POSSIBLE REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS IN THE GULF STREAM AGAIN BY LATE THU-FRI.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. BUT SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S MOST AREAS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
559 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 High pressure is building into the region slowly, but the stalled front south of the Ohio River Valley is keeping the cloud cover in place over the forecast area this afternoon. The southern half of the state will remain above freezing. Problem with that is that temperatures in this area are forecast to be close to freezing, but feel it will have a tough time getting to the ground, so will continue with just slight chances in the morning hours over far west central thru southeast IL and keep the precip type as rain with temperatures a degree or two above freezing.
WITH MORE OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S VERSUS THE MID 40S. THE OVERALL FORECAST IS JUST AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT IS NOT BEING PUSHED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST ABOUT STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND THUS WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST.
943 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHICH ARE ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
730 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK AS SOME OF THE MORE STEADY WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS TO EASE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OH TO SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THEN SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ON INTO WESTERN KY. BUT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
835 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY.
913 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO REGION. FRIES RESIDUAL RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
503 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE SLOW BUT STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS REACHED A TEXARKANA-DYERSBURG TN-LOUISVILLE KY LINE, BUT THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT, RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 8-10KFT HAS KEPT RAIN FROM PUSHING INTO THE HUNTSVILLE FORECAST AREA THUS FAR.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF NIGHTTIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES VERSUS YESTERDAY AS THE QUASISTATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN THE DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOR INLAND COMMUNITIES. MODELS SHOW A APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.
804 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER AIR FILTERING A LITTLE FASTER BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRA LOUISIANA. LOOKS LIKE WE ALSO NEEED TO ADJUST THE LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE.
412 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 321 PM CST A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THIS HIGH AND THE CORRESPONDING RIDGING IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
917 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS TIME WITH FREEZING FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT GLAZING ON AREA ROADWAYS. ALL THROUGH THIS TIME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SUPPORTED BY AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
NOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO JUST EAST OF JACKSON TN AND GREENVILLE MS HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE PUSH OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS HAS WEAKENED. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS. FOR TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT WILL MOISTEN UP AFTER 06Z. /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE SLOW BUT STEADY APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS REACHED A TEXARKANA-DYERSBURG TN-LOUISVILLE KY LINE, BUT THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT, RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 8-10KFT HAS KEPT RAIN FROM PUSHING INTO THE HUNTSVILLE FORECAST AREA THUS FAR.
/issued 200 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ Latest observations show temperatures have been warming ever-so- slowly today, w/most locations right at or abv freezing. As a result, we've allowed the WSW to expire, as best chances for precip overnight will be over the warmer SE zones. Icy roads have not been a problem, but re-freezing overnight may create a slick spot or two of black ice, and elevated surfaces will be a concern as well. As is their wont, models are too wide on diurnalspreads, and have forecast afternoon highs that will not be realized, and overnight lows that are warmer than what's occurring now.
1015 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 QUIET WX OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC COAST MAINTAINS DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN RECENT NIGHTS THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT. EVNG SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WITH DEEP N/NE FLOW AND A MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H60 LYR. HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF COAST EXTENDING NE TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FORMING ALONG A LINE FROM CLARENDON TO MIAMI AND EASTWARD. FREEZING FOG IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FORMING ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE PRESENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. CAUSING FREEZING FOG. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.
600 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 ANOTHER UPDATE TO FORECAST TO ADD IN CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AS SOME LOCALES ARE STARTING TO SEE CHANGE OVER/MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS TIME WITH FREEZING FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT GLAZING ON AREA ROADWAYS. ALL THROUGH THIS TIME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SUPPORTED BY AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
643 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A SUNNIER SKY WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEADING WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW STRETCHES TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING KEEPING MANY PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES. HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
A CLOSED LOW. POSSIBLY TO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTN.
538 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
901 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
638 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
401 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 A WET FORECAST WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MEANDER ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH CNTRL LA.
BUT THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS DUE TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS/ETC.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
918 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 321 PM CST A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THIS HIGH AND THE CORRESPONDING RIDGING IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALTHOUGH THIS LAYER DIMINISHES FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND A MIX OF LIGHT FZRA AND ICE PELLETS MAY BE MORE COMMON. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIGHTING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR MISSOURI BORDER.
AS THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE LINGERS WITHIN THE AREA OF EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS BACK EAST AGAIN THIS EVENING. FORECAST MODELS ARE LESS THAN HELPFUL WITH THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FREEZING LINE. WE HAVE RETAINED THE ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE THAT HAS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION. SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SUBFREEZING AIR DIMINISHES FURTHER.
The overwhelming trend in the latest guidance is for a more rapid drying trend into this evening, but with all of the moisture in the area and the cold front lingering just to the southeast will err to the wet side tonight and Sunday.
513 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY.
637 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
834 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 ANOTHER INTERESTING OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VORTICITY CENTER OVER SOUTHERN UT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN UT AND NW CO OVERNIGHT. A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY TODAY AS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST RELOADS THANKS TO ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD CAUSING LIFT WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WHAT WAS ESSENTIALLY TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME ONE. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW ELONGATES ACROSS WYOMING.
657 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO REGION. COOLER AND SLOWLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FRIES RESIDUAL RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
958 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CWA. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK AS SOME OF THE MORE STEADY WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS TO EASE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OH TO SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THEN SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ON INTO WESTERN KY. BUT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND -5 C TO -10 C TEMPERATURES CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POCKET OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
Mesoscale models including the HRRR and RAP13 are all showing an area of light freezing rain spreading northeast out of western Oklahoma after midnight. The atmosphere will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle looks fairly likely.
LOWS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WHICH ARE ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
649 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP TURN WINDS NORTH AND BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY.
MANY AREAS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
540 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO REGION. COOLER AND SLOWLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FRIES RESIDUAL RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NRN CO.
541 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 321 PM CST A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THIS HIGH AND THE CORRESPONDING RIDGING IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
504 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2015 A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY TODAY AS ONE PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST RELOADS THANKS TO ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD CAUSING LIFT WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WHAT WAS ESSENTIALLY TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME ONE. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW ELONGATES ACROSS WYOMING.
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PLACES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A CLEVELAND. BUT FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CEILING AND VIS ISSUES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS CREPT THROUGH GLH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE WATERS.
PRECIP TYPE FAVORS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND WITH WEAK LIFT PRESENT AND THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE IS ABOUT A 105NM SWATH OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE STORM WITH SOME WRAPAROUND WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700MB LOW. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW AT KLBF THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIGHT SNOW AT KVTN MAINLY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE CORE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UTAH/WYOMING STATE LINE. THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL HAVE READJUSTED ITSELF SO IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE LOW IS CUT OFF AND IS PART OF A REX BLOCK. THE LOW HAS LIMITED MOISTURE BUT STILL MAINTAINS A COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE MID LEVELS 700 MB UP THROUGH THE 500 MB LEVEL UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. EXPECT THE LOW TO PRODUCE MORE STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PERSISTENT ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD.
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND NORTHERLY WINDS EVERYWHERE THERE ARE STILL SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH THAT MAY REDUCE VSBYS FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE CIGS LIFT TOWARDS THE LOW-MVFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THAT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LODGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
528 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. /ISSUED 401 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ A WET FORECAST WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MEANDER ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH CNTRL LA.
928 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP TURN WINDS NORTH AND BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY.
713 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OH TO SOUTH OF CINCINNATI THEN SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER ON INTO WESTERN KY. BUT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
327 PM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 Near to below freezing morning temperatures Sunday.
The atmosphere will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle looks fairly likely.
/ISSUED 232 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/ SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON AREA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE GALVESTON ISLAND AREA TO HIGH ISLAND. THE AREA'S COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A 5 TO 10 DEGREE SPREAD ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY.
Deep layer ridging remains in place. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
742 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.