Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Saturday night/ Arctic high pressure centered over western Ontario and northern Minnesota and ridged south through Iowa. The ambient temperature will be colder to the east under the high pressure however the wind will be near nil thus removing any additional wind chill affects, therefore, will not have a headline across this area. The area of high pressure will settle southeast into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon allowing for weak warm advection by the afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday under high pressure. High pressure will keep skies mostly sunny today, though there are a few clouds in the north that have made the long trip from Lake Superior.
Cold front over the Coastal range this morning with IR imagery suggesting relatively weak baroclinic zone with lack of upper level cloudiness. Lingering showers possible over the Sierra Nevada Saturday, otherwise subsidence increases over the CWA as upper ridging over the EPAC builds inland.
Rain, snow and freezing rain are possible during this period.
There was fairly weak flow across the Rockies as the ridge axis was positioned west of the Continental Divide, so as a result, leeside troughing was essentially non-existent.
Let the Wind Chill Advisory expire normally as latest readings are mostly above freezing. Temperatures have been warming well (compared to guidance) over the last couple of days so went on the warmer side for highs this afternoon, ranging from near 20 in southern Indiana and the Blue Grass to the mid 20s in the Bowling Green area. High pressure over the Boundary Waters this evening will slide southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday.
PNA pattern firmly established at midday across North America, with dry NW flow aloft over Kansas, between a strong cold 500 dm low in New England, and a strong 590 dm ridge near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. A strong temperature gradient will result, with Hays holding near freezing this afternoon, while Elkhart enjoys mid/upper 50s.
/issued 420 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018/ In the upper pattern a broad trough remains over the Eastern US while a ridge remains over the West.
235 PM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 A upper-level high pressure ridge remains over the region today with increasing cloud cover during the day. Some areas of dense freezing fog and low clouds may impact the valleys of Southwest Montana. The valleys of southwest Montana may struggle to warm in the next few days, before the next cold front swings through during the day on Saturday, with light rain and snow showers possible.
Southerly flow develops on Saturday, but clouds may be tough to break, while it will be a little warmer in the teens to lower 20s.
319 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 The region is currently situated between an upper level trough over the eastern part of the country, and a ridge over the west. By Saturday morning, the ridge begins to break down, but northwest flow will remain over the Northern Plains. At the surface, strong high pressure will remain over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota tonight, then begins to get pushed to the southeast on Saturday ahead of an elongated low pressure trough sliding from the Rockies to the western high plains. Southerly winds will begin to usher warmer air in on Saturday, with highs in the upper teens east to the lower to mid 30s west of the Missouri River.
Bitterly cold temperatures and dry weather will occur through Saturday as an arctic high pressure system over the upper midwest moves southeast across Indiana. A strong upper trough over the eastern great lakes and New England will move on to the east causing our upper flow to become more zonal which in turn will allow our temperatures to moderate. An area of low pressure moving across the southern U.
Despite cloud cover for the RGV, surface temperatures have maximized potential today with the lower valley warming well into the 70s earlier this afternoon. As the higher moisture moves over the cooler sea surface, fog will likely develop right along the coastline late Saturday.
Deep cold air dominates the eastern half of the country, and upper ridging keeps warmer air to the west.
The high pressure system that brought the bitterly cold temperatures to the region this past week is finally moving off the east.
203 PM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 Temperatures will continue to warm for the weekend as an upper ridge builds into the region. Expect highs to approach 70 degrees over the lowlands with 50s to lower 60s in the mountains.
Mid and high level cloudiness will continue this morning over South Texas ahead of the short wave trough moving into the northwestern Brush Country. Clearing skies are expected through the afternoon as this short wave trough quickly moves through the area. So only virga expected as this short wave trough moves through today. With bays and nearshore water temperatures in the lower 50s and a light easterly flow expected today, will lower high temperatures a couple of degrees along the coast.
A ridge axis over the inter-mountain Rockies will produce another overall mild day across our forecast area. Models agree an upper trough will break down the ridge Saturday as it moves across our region. Proggs indicate the trough is weakly organized and associated frontogenesis on the weak side, but does have a brief tap of Pacific moisture. Temps should be warm enough at the lower elevations that any precipitation comes in the form of light rain or a mix of light rain/snow by Saturday night.
Max temperatures could range in the upper 20s in our northeast and eastern counties and in the low to mid 50s for the western half of the CWA.
313 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 The forecast area has largely been dominated by two halves today with a persistent stratus deck with relatively warmer temperatures west and clear skies with relatively colder temperatures east. High pressure responsible for our recent brutally cold temperatures finally slowly nudges east Saturday with an approaching warm front from the west.
316 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 At 2 PM CST, arctic high pressure is moving into eastern Iowa with fair skies and very cold temperatures in the 5 to 15 degree range.
The region remained under northwesterly flow aloft as a broad mid- level trough stretched across the eastern U. with a mid-level ridge in place across the western U. Models also show some of the low/mid clouds currently over eastern NE sliding into far northeast KS today, which will hinder a rise in temperatures even further with highs only reaching into the upper teens/low 20s over that area compared to mid/upper 20s to low 30s expected elsewhere across the CWA by this afternoon.
929 AM PST Fri Jan 5 2018 Partly cloudy and mild weather will continue through the weekend under high pressure.
249 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Deep Polar low remains situated over southern Quebec/northeast CONUS with weak upper ridging approaching the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends from western Ontario down through the upper Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, a 1040mb ridge axis has worked down into northern Minnesota and will slip directly across the local area tonight, with an ideal light wind setup for maximized radiational cooling as the ridge axis pretty much crests the area right at 12Z. That's a good thing, as said warming will eventually translate into much warmer temps for the early work week (details below).
231 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Upper level ridging that has been in place will begin to break down this weekend.
Temperatures will be warmer than the last several days but continue well below normal. Northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday and help the >1030mb high centered over the CWA this afternoon be reinforced by a stronger center of high pressure by morning. There will be a few clouds around Saturday but enough insolation to allow temperatures to top out a little warmer than today.
This may allow for patchy fog Saturday morning as lows fall into the 40s and dewpoints increase into the low 40s. Increasing clouds Saturday across the eastern two thirds of the CWA should occur as moisture begins spreading into the low levels. Otherwise, a quiet and much warmer beginning of the weekend for much of South Central Texas.
This is responsible for the increasing opaque high cloud cover, but the air mass in the lowest 15kft remains very dry. Tonight-Saturday: Ridge eventually breaks down in response to a fast moving positively tilted trough swinging from the Pacific Northwest and across the Central Rockies. Low pressure should also shift eastward finally pushing the coldest air mass east of our CWA allowing for warmer temps in our east. Current indicating is the with low pressure beginning to shift east southerly flow would limit the potential and latest guidance keeps fog potential north and east. The upper ridge over the western U.
An upper trough will bring rain at times today and tonight. Saturday will be mainly dry with weak high pressure aloft.
Little change in the short term as arctic airmass remains in place over the region with high pressure center along Manitoba/Ontario border. High pressure center will move south into the mid- ms valley by the end of the period. enhancing vertical shear in the low levels and disrupting lake effect bands.
/Today through Tonight/ Clouds continue to impact the forecast early this morning as temperatures are remaining much warmer than forecast.
Temperatures have been warming well (compared to guidance) over the last couple of days so went on the warmer side for highs this afternoon, ranging from near 20 in southern Indiana and the Blue Grass to the mid 20s in the Bowling Green area. High pressure over the Boundary Waters this evening will slide southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday.
1139 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 High pressure is over the area at this time. However, a weak cold front will slowly move through the this afternoon and tonight. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure over the area will provide light winds and mostly clear skies. Today Through Saturday Night Northwest flow aloft continues across the state this morning, with high pressure at the surface centered north of Minnesota extending south toward the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today with quite a bit of sunshine expected along with light winds. High pressure will intensify from the north on Saturday bringing cooler air back to the area and widespread easterly winds. This will be brief however, with high pressure expected to shift eastward Saturday night.
Temperatures on the way to reach forecast highs in the low to mid 50s.
426 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Deep troughing remains raped along the mid-Atlantic, transitioning to more of a zonal flow pattern over the Florida peninsula. The 12Z MFL sounding showed light northerly winds from the surface to 850 mb with very dry air in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere. This has allowed for chilly weather this afternoon, with maximum temperatures only reaching the lower 60s. Heading into the weekend, models push a dry mid-level trough across the Gulf of Mexico and towards the Florida peninsula.
241 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Conditions are much warmer today than what we saw yesterday with abundant sunshine across the region. Dry northwest flow in place will persist through tomorrow with upper ridging to the west and a broad upper trough across the eastern ConUS.
The mean trough remains anchored over the eastern CONUS but is progged to move east over the weekend as the Atlantic ridge weakens, setting the stage for a more progressive synoptic pattern. Temperatures aren't expected to be significantly warmer today, but highs today are forecast to be on the order of 10 degrees higher than yesterday's. A brief period of south winds are expected today, but a secondary cold front will slip into the Mid-South tonight, shifting winds from the northeast. This air mass doesn't appear to be much colder, but temperatures on Saturday are expected to be a few degrees cooler.
The high pressure center will drift south across eastern MN and western WI. However, warmer air will begin working in aloft overnight, which will likely offset the cooling toward morning. The much warmer/milder temperatures remain on tap for the upcoming weekend as the core of arctic air mass retreats north into Canada.
Upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin with a light to moderate west and northwest flow aloft. By late afternoon, the higher west facing slopes could see up to 3 inches of snowfall.
At the surface, while the main high pressure center will remain well to the north and west over the Upper Midwest, a weakness in the gradient is expected to spread across the forecast area, which should allow the boundary layer to decouple for much of the night.
/issued 328 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018/ It will be another pleasant day across the forecast area with a broad ridge just off to our west and a relatively weak pressure gradient across the region keeping winds on the light side.
The high clouds will decrease into tonight but MVFR conditions may become possible as enough low moisture and light winds could allow for the development of a low stratus deck and patchy fog. Surface winds will mainly veer with high pressure in control. Significant high cloudiness in the form of cirrus overhead will be greatly reduced if not eliminated altogether tonight through Saturday as a 500 mb trough passes through today.
The persistent western ridge/eastern trough pattern will gradually break down as Pacific energy spills eastward across North America. Continued the trend of previous forecasts of undercutting guidance for mins in most areas, but stayed a little warmer across the far north where it seems likely clouds will return early in the night (similar to the past 2 nights). The center of the cold arctic anticyclone will begin to shift off to the southeast on Saturday.
However, the lack of wind in colder areas already seen in our northeast gives reason to believe that tonight's very cold night under clear skies and under the ridge axis may not see any wind at all tonight. That results in actual temperatures of -10 to -16 under the ridge axis, but wind chills possibly a non-factor.
1041 AM MST Fri Jan 5 2018 00Z hand analysis at H500 shows that the western ridge axis has been shoved eastward and basically extends across the Great Basin to the Yukon. Troughing extends off the Left Coast from the Gulf of Alaska and water vapor imagery this morning is showing several embedded circulations in this area of low pressure. Expect some virga and high mountain showers to break out tomorrow afternoon as the center of the higher jet winds come into play and aid large scale ascent. The very dry low layers however will need the main push of the trough before seeing precipitation hit the lower valley floors. So have continued to favor pops on the highest terrain in the central CO mountains in the short term.
At 930am temperatures were still below freezing at most locations but will rise above freezing areawide before noon. As of noon today, all of our forecast area is expected to be above freezing and on the way to highs in the mid- to upper-40s. With the warmer temperatures today and lows tonight only expected to drop into the mid- to low-20s, the threat for hard freeze criteria to be met is very low.
The gradual thaw continues this afternoon with just about the whole Midsouth above freezing at 2 PM.
353 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 High pressure centered over Louisiana and Mississippi has our light easterly breezes veering a bit more southerly.
1106 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Clouds will gradually decrease from northeast as a strong high pressure centered over northern Minnesota moves southeastward over the weekend. This will keep the area under a easterly surface flow pattern, leaving most of the low to mid level moisture west of I-29.
Upper ridge over the Great Basin at this time will shift eastward and flatten today. Afternoon highs today will generally be a few degrees warmer than yesterday at most locations. However, some of the mountain/high valley locations, despite warmer air aloft, may actually be bit cooler due to the increase in high clouds.
Plenty of insolation and southerly winds has prompted temps to warm into the lower to upper 50s per 21Z metars. Sfc ridging will be slowly exiting the region tonight and ensuing southerly winds coupled with the return of high clouds will prevent temperatures from bottoming out /upper 20s to lower 30s/.
Initially we have some locally dense fog over parts of the west and over parts of the metro as a large hole in the lower clouds developed shortly after midnight. Clouds are expected to lift rapidly to the north and east through early morning ahead of the short wave trough moving through central South Dakota at this time. Later tonight, the western CONUS trough beginning to lift off to the east/northeast as the next significant western trough moves ashore of the northwest.
But, it won't be until tomorrow when shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a low pressure system tracks across the Upper Midwest.
307 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A warm front currently extends from the central Plains eastward through the lower Great Lakes. We'll see variable cloudiness through the day, but peeks of sun combined with a steady S flow will allow temps to rise into the low and mid 80s. Expect another quiet night tonight with lows in the low and mid 60s. This will only reinforce the warm sector over our area, with another day of temps in the low and mid 80s. By afternoon, enough deep moisture return will combine with forcing ahead of the trough to kick of some showers and perhaps a storm.
High temperatures will range from the lower 70s far northwest around Galesburg where overcast conditions and rain will persist through the entire day. A stronger wave will track through the Plains on Saturday, pushing a cold front eastward into Illinois.
312 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017 High pressure centered northeast of Bermuda will extend west into the central and southern Appalachians through the weekend.
Low pressure will track across the western Great Lakes over the weekend and take a cold front across the local area Saturday night.
expect the main cold front to make a final push across the local area. especially along and just ahead of the cold front.
Low pressure will track across the Northern Lakes Saturday night forcing a cold front across the forecast area. Showers will lift north with the front as it lifts north of the forecast area as a warm front. Upper level trough and its associated jet energy will be moving through the central Great Lakes Saturday night. However the low level instability is lacking and will likely prevent any widespread issues.
Chance for rain late Saturday night as a cold front approaches.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): One last weak disturbance with a surge of moisture rounding the southeastern side of the retrograding mid level ridge and an approaching upper level trough from the Gulf. Tropical Storm Nate is expected to emerge into the South Central Gulf of Mexico Saturday and with its broad circulation some moisture might work its way into the eastern most portion of the Lower Texas coastal waters.
This feature will allow a cold front to also move southeast into West Central Texas after 06z.
Surfaced high pressure over the region will shift east during the period, allowing a more southerly flow to develop.
Today, the deep, positively tilted trough just to the northwest of the forecast area will sweep eastward across the region, passing east of the divide by 6 PM MDT. Therefore, despite the fairly energetic nature of the approaching trough, showers will be fairly limited during its passage. The stationary front mentioned previously will be driven to the east with trough passage resulting in breezy west winds. Winds will die down early this evening as the gradient relaxes in the wake of the trough and surface cold front. Clearing skies and light drainage flow suggests chilly temperatures tonight, though it doesn't appear that a hard freeze will occur at any of the lower elevation zones which haven't already experienced a season ending freeze. However, a strong 130 kt jet streak will start digging into the trough causing it to start dropping southward.
Today Through Saturday Night An uneventful and warm Friday expected as the dominant upper ridge centered over southern TX continues to flatten. A compact trough currently analyzed across the Intermountain West will graze northern AR Saturday before ejecting northeast, dragging a weakening cold front with it.
Dry conditions are expected as high pressure moves east from the central Appalachians. South winds ahead of a cold front over the Plains states will again result in highs in the mid 80s. The associated cold front is forecast to break apart as it encounters the strong subtropical ridge over the Southeast. As the system taps into a south flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf, a new area of light precip will likely develop over the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon.
looking for a range from the low 50s north to near 60F S and E. Looking for highs Friday to range from the low 60s north. At the start of the period, an upper trough extends from the northern Plains across the Rockies, placing the region under southwest flow aloft.
During the early parts of the day the upper level high becomes more oblong and settled more squarely over Texas. The high aloft will cut off the moisture flow to the region from the Gulf and Pacific. As the day progresses the upper level closed low will start to drop over the Four Corners area and push the upper level high south allowing for an upper level trough to dig into eastern NM. The activity will be quick to move out of the CWA as the upper level trough quickly moves eastward.
517 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Weakness in the 500mb ridge will begin to fill in today as high pressure over the western Atlantic builds westward through Saturday. Meanwhile, at the surface, ridging will begin to weaken as Nate nears the Gulf coast. A few showers are possible across the south today, where the surface ridging has the least influence.
High pressure will nose into the area today in the wake of the low increasing winds along the western foothills and warming temperatures into the 60s for most places with downslope flow in place. Heading into Saturday, gusty to strong winds along the western foothills will spread across the entire area as a cold front drops in from the north tightening the surface pressure gradients. The cold front looks to come through in a couple phases: the increase in winds initially, and cooler temperatures and increasing showers moving in from the north later in the day.
Attention will then turn to a cold front/dryline over western KS. By 21z, cold front is expected to stretch from near KHLC to near KGCK with a dry line extending south of this location. Cold front will be very progressive after 00z which will allow storms to start to line-out.
Heavier rain is then expected for tonight as a upper level trough digs through the Plains states and forces the stationary front back towards the CWA as a cold front. The cold front and storms is then expected to exit the area by Saturday afternoon with seasonable highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
531 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 A stalled front over central Pennsylvania will lift slowly to the north as a warm front later today through Saturday morning bringing another late taste of summer-like weather to the region.
1030 PM PDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure gives way to a strong cold front late Friday and into Friday night. Much cooler and unsettled weather is expected to continue through the weekend with snow showers likely over the mountains. Low pressure southeast of the area pulls away tonight and clouds thin. A cold front from the west Friday will bring more middle to high clouds, and an increase in winds.