Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 411 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ An upper high over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies will continue to provide the Panhandles with a northwest upper flow pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Update: Upper ridging in place will mean warm and dry weather conditions today across northeast Montana. The ridge will slide downstream starting late tomorrow ahead of a cold front, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms by the evening hours. The strong ridge of high pressure now over most of the western states and the Rocky Mountain region will be in control through Thursday afternoon. Later Thursday afternoon, the next low pressure trough from the west coast of Canada pushes through the continental divide and turns the flow aloft for NE Montana from the SW. Upper trof moving across the Canadian Rockies on Thursday night will push a cold front through eastern Montana.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours as dry high pressure begins to move into the area.
743 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Notable air mass change today behind departing cold front from early this morning. Cooler and drier weather will persist through the week. Clearing trend continues today with winds shifting to westerly behind departing cold front. Isolated showers are possible today with upper level trough making its way across the North Country. This will be a cooler drier air mass with dewpoints dropping to more comfortable temps, low to mid 50s. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, only reaching the lower to mid 70s. Will continue with chance for showers as upper level trough slowly pushes eastward across Northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly cooler than normal with the upper level trough overhead.
645 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front moving south across the region will maintain a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across area terminals today. Water vapor is showing the upper ridge out West and the long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest with NW flow aloft.
Broad mid to upper level trough extends through the eastern U. as inverted mid level troughing is noted from central Cuba to central FL. Cu bases will rise to the low end VFR range (030-050 feet) by late morning and aftn.
Upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will move into the Northern Plains Fri.
842 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday. High pressure will build into the region for the end of the week. bringing a cooler and drier airmass. A broad upper trough will slowly move through the eastern states today and tonight. pushing a cold front into the area tonight. Expect afternoon temperatures to warm to the mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The cold front is forecast to be over the eastern Midlands Thursday morning. Weak waves of low pressure developing along the front will slow its movement.
Expect cooler conditions today with onshore flow. A weak cold front will bring light showers to the coast today. The trailing upper level trough will cross the region late tonight into Thursday.
716 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Notable air mass change today behind departing cold front from early this morning. Cooler and drier weather will persist through the week. Clearing trend continues today with winds shifting to westerly behind departing cold front. Isolated showers are possible today with upper level trough making its way across the North Country. This will be a cooler drier air mass with dewpoints dropping to more comfortable temps, low to mid 50s. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, only reaching the lower to mid 70s. Will continue with chance for showers as upper level trough slowly pushes eastward across Northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly cooler than normal with the upper level trough overhead.
Deep high pressure ridging north of ECFL will keep a rather deep, but light, onshore flow across the area. The low level tropical wave axis will move off the FL west coast tonight with a feed of deep moisture continuing across the southern peninsula.
With various vorticity maxima rotating around this low, sufficient lift and instability will help to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially along the east coast metro region. As the low slowly drifts northward late Thursday, flow will turn south southeast, further drawing in deep tropical moisture northward over South Florida.
A weak trough near the surface will linger near South Florida through the weekend.
Upstream, water vapor depicts a potent closed mid/upper level low circulating along the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. At the surface, a weak backdoor cold front slips into the Turtle Mountains by 21z, then sinks south into the James River Valley between 00z and 06z Thursday.
1051 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cold front crosses the mountains this morning. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. Cold front continues progressing through the forecast area this morning with only light returns noted on radar. Upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will bring much cooler and drier air southward from a large high pressure system centered over central Canada. Overall, it will be nice weather, with the much cooler and less humid conditions.
1004 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The cold front is now to the east of the mountains with drier air beginning to advect into the Plateau. Current radar imagery indicates that the shower activity is limited to the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains. Therefore, adjusted PoPs downward throughout the remainder of the day with best chances in the higher elevations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 67 85 64 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 82 60 / 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 63 82 60 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 59 78 56 / 40 10 0 0.
430 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A trough off the California coast will bring seasonally warm August weather today and Thursday, along with a fairly deep marine layer.
616 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Quiet, cooler, and drier weather continues today. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a deepening upper-level trough in the eastern US and ridging in the west, with northwesterly flow across the central US. Frontal passage had brought much drier and slightly cooler mid-level air to the central US, with 12C+ dewpoints at 850mb confined to the southern Plains to TN River valley area and southward. A pocket of cooler 850mb temperatures was noted in ON, but in the central Plains, temps were still 10-20C from east to west.
932 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Weak cold front has now moved swd thru the cntrl TN Valley and closer to cntrl AL this Wed morning, as temp trends begin to rebound into the mid/upper 70s for several locations. Weak upper disturbances embedded within a broad upper trough axis in place over much of the ern CONUS may provide the means for a few showers/tstms later today mainly for areas along/S of the TN River. Reinforcing our cooler and drier air, we will have mostly clear skies that will let temps drop into the lower 60s.
A prominent upper trof across eastern NOAM will continue to deepen over the next 24 hours.
An upper level trough moving north through northern Utah will exit the state this morning. A gradual warming and drying trend will take hold across the region as high pressure aloft returns to the Great Basin later in the week. Lingering moisture and instability should allow for a few showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, at least through the work week, but there will be a noticeable downward trend in the coverage of afternoon and evening convection. A general drying trend will begin from the south by tonight, and continue over the next several days as high pressure aloft slowly strengthens across the Great Basin.
There may be some fog tonight in areas that drop into the lower 50s, mainly over northern Missouri, but it does not look to be widespread as drier dewpoints have advected into the area.
Temperatures on Thursday maybe a degree or two cooler than today with more cloud cover in place.
1129 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will provide mainly dry but cool weather through the weekend. Lows tonight will generally range in the lower to middle 50s.
This could cause some localized flooding in the low lying and poor drainage areas. With various vorticity maxima rotating around this low, sufficient lift and instability will help to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially along the east coast metro region. As the low slowly drifts northward late Thursday, flow will turn south southeast, further drawing in deep tropical moisture northward over South Florida.
710 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 MVFR ceilings this morning will lift and give way to VFR flying conditions and mainly clear skies by this afternoon as a cold front moves south of the area.
Today Through Thursday Night The cold front continues to progress south early this morning. expect the drier air to continue to move into the state as high pressure approaches from the north. This will result in calmer and cooler conditions to end the short term period.
The other main sfc feature of note is the lee trough across MT/eastern WY/eastern CO. Will start with an upper wave gradually suppressing the upper ridge overhead. While we see increasing low level flow south of an inverted trough/warm front across the forecast area, upper flow will remain weak.
This as moist and unstable conditions persist combined with low pressure aloft. Looking for temperatures to recover back into the lower 90s by this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms as the seabreeze pushes inland. A cold front over southern Arkansas this morning will move southward during the day making the coast around sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow will be pretty much like today but a bit cooler but showers and thunderstorms will be a bit more prevalent during the afternoon hours. At this time Harvey does not have a closed circulation but the Hurricane Center has Harvey redeveloping back into a cyclone.
With more return flow today and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90, cooler air aloft will increase instability through the late afternoon. Highs today in the 80s with warmer temperatures to the west. Low level moisture will return to the area Thursday, with surface dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s and H850mb dew points around 15C.
The upper high, centered near El Paso, will continue to weaken today and tonight, and our area will be under weak northerly flow aloft on its eastern periphery. The weak cold front, just south of Wichita Falls and Childress, is expected to sag south across the northern half of our area today. Could have some enhanced development near the residual outflow boundary in our far southern counties, along the weak cold front, and in association with the aforementioned MCV. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s across most of the northern half of our area, and in the lower 90s across some of the southern half.
This system was moving northward between strong high pressure aloft centered near El Paso and weak low pressure aloft near the southern California coast. At any rate, still appears the highest likelihood for showers/tstms to impact the Tucson metro area would occur from 22Z-02Z (plus/minus an hour or so either side of this range), or 3 pm - 7 pm this afternoon/evening.
Cooler and less humid are the rule through the weekend. Fries Large scale troughing will be the theme through the short term forecast. With this, a fairly vigorous short wave trough will also transit. Fries The departing mid level trough and associated low pressure system owes to several nice weather days late this week through the weekend.
A cold front will bring a threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday mainly over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
/issued 308 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ The cold front responsible for our afternoon and evening thunderstorms was pushing through Permian Basin and North Texas this morning. Today, the ridge to our west begins to collapse but we remain in favorable NW flow through Thursday.
740 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 This morning, Upper Michigan was situated between high pressure over the Northern Plains and low pressure southeast of the Hudson Bay. As the above mentioned area of high pressure begins to work it's way into Upper Michigan later today, breezy winds will subside through the afternoon and evening hours from west to east.
517 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The northern plains are situated between an upper level ridge to the west and a trough to the east. Upper ridge axis will shift over the Rockies today, as a Canadian low pressure system begins pushing into the Pacific Northwest.
Expected to be warm and dry this afternoon with temperatures in the low 90s and humidity in the teens. A ridge of high pressure will be situated over the forecast area today. This will result in sunny skies, warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The ridge begins to break down late Thursday as a weak front approaches the area.
This low level convergence and 295K isentropic lift will result in the development of scattered showers.
Passing cold front may trigger a few showers over the lake which may affect lakeshore zones late tonight into early Thursday.
Newly reformed Tropical Depression Harvey was over the Bay of Campeche while a weakening upper Low pressure area was over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. For today, the upper Low will help provide the main impacts to weather across Southeast Texas.
The highest likelihood for these thunderstorms will be in the counties along and south of I-80 into north central Kansas. Expect that there should be some breaks in the clouds for viewing the eclipse and areas that get the high cirrus could still see the eclipse assuming these high clouds are thin enough, which is certainly possible.
After this disturbance passes by, high pressure will build into our region for Sunday and Monday with fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
323 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary located just north of the Ohio River, amidst high pressure generally sprawled from the eastern Ohio Valley down through the southern Appalachians. Aloft, a short wave trough is pulling away across New England, with rising heights across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley. Warming temperatures and mostly clear skies will be on tap across eastern Kentucky through the short term, as an upper level ridge builds in across the southeastern CONUS. Strong upper level ridging in place will begin to break down Monday night as a longwave trough pushes into the Ohio Valley. This trough will remain in place, deepening, through the remainder of the work week.
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure covering much of the country east of the Mississippi during the morning will become centered more along the Atlantic coast during the afternoon. Guidance lows in the lower to mid 60s look good.
Although a TUTT noted over the west central Gulf this afternoon is progged to track west over the north central Gulf Sunday afternoon, models strengthen the mid level ridge over the Gulf coast states which is expected to further limit afternoon convection to isolated coverage over our CWA. This will allow temperatures to top out a degree or two warmer than today at most locations.
257 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A weak low pressure system off the Southern California coast will keep high temperatures a few degrees below average through Monday with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog extending into portions of the inland valleys.
Upper level pattern looks to be quasi-zonal across the northern tier of states with a trough over the Great Lakes or New England states. NAM/GFS show enough 925-700 mb flow to advect this higher moisture over SE Texas by this evening.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer compared to last night at this time, with forecast lows still looking on target. Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to the southwest with winds light out of the SW. That said, a trough axis continues to move across the region, and this is leading the development of a few showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. Models are in good agreement with heights rising in the wake of the previously mentioned trough and given the clearing skies kept at least patchy fog across a good portion of Eastern KY. Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS should result in a quiet but warm start to the period.
427 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Upper ridge center over TX with High pressure extending from AZ eastward to the Atlantic. An upper trough over CA is expected to develop into a cut off low before weakening later in the week and rolling over the top of the ridge. After it passes the ridge will build back across the Western US. Looking at a few more days of near normal high temperatures in the mid 90s before a weak cold front sags down into the area midweek.
341 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure over the Appalacians will continue to provide fair weather across our area today through Monday morning. The southerly flow around this high will result in warmer and more humid conditions the next couple of days.
Will have to watch which locations do get rainfall, since that may result in low stratus and/or fog for early Monday morning across the High Plains. This will allow a cooler and more stable airmass in the area for the morning hours and may help with eclipse visibility across most of southeast Wyoming.
344 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and generally dry conditions. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
This wave is expected to phase with a northern stream trough and push a front through the area which will bring us a chance for thunderstorms during the later afternoon, evening and overnight.
610 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure over the Appalacians will continue to provide fair weather across our area today through Monday morning. The southerly flow around this high will result in warmer and more humid conditions the next couple of days.
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the mouth of the Mississippi River, maintaining essentially calm winds over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows a flat ridge aloft stretching from the Desert Southwest through the srn Plains to the sern CONUS, while a tutt low is noted over the ern Gulf drifting wwd. Forecast area to remain under the influence of the weak ridging aloft, although with increasing contributions from the approaching tutt over the Gulf. Most medium/long-range models indicate a swath of wwd-moving moisture associated with the mid/upper low passing the area this afternoon which is also noted in high-res guidance.
An area of low pressure off the southern California coast will pull moisture northward into the region this afternoon and overnight, resulting in rain showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight and Monday.
351 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure with fair weather will build across the area through Monday.
Afternoon highs will be on par or a tad higher than today as ridging aloft and at the surface will be seen over and just east of the state.
Upper ridge will dominate South Texas weather this morning. Upper trough/TUTT still seen on satellite and shown to be moving very little. Finally, another borderline rip current risk in the low to moderate category, as worksheet gives a "4" for each day. Isolated showers this morning and perhaps a bit more activity offshore Monday morning with a bit better moisture available proximate to the upper trough.
526 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure with fair weather will build across the area through Monday.
402 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Upper level trough was over MAN with an upper level jet on the southern periphery. Upper level trough will move into Ontario by Mon morning. Another upper level trough over the Yukon will rotate into the Northern Plains late Mon and send a back door cold front into the area on Tue.
A weak and dry cold front will continue to progress across southern Montana early tonight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):Water vapor satellite imagery shows 500 mb low pressure spinning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This mid-level low pressure system will nudge 500 mb high pressure north and west as it advances. Dry weather will prevail today and tonight over the inland portion of the BRO CWFA, with the only hope for isolated showers occurring tonight over most of the Lower Texas coastal waters.
442 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will build across the area today through Monday bringing seasonably warm, dry weather to the area today then warm and more humid weather on Monday.
Mon-Tue Night: An increasing thunderstorm potential is still anticipated as mid to upper-deck trof strengthens as it surges SE from the Northern Plains toward, then across, the Great Lakes. The trof will send a cold front SE into Central KS late Mon afternoon/early Mon evening with the front possibly reaching the Turnpike early Tue morning. Wed-Fri: Cooler weather will spread across KS as high pressure spreads SE from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Otherwise, a lee trough will allow southerly winds to increase by midday through this afternoon, with some gusts of 20-25 knots in central/south-central Kansas.
354 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Light to calm winds have taken hold across the area this morning as high pressure slowly builds in.
424 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 An enlongated upper ridge extending from Texas into the Southeast United States should provide enough subsidence to suppress most convective development today. However, an upper low moving west along the southern periphery of the ridge in the Northern Gulf of Mexico may provide enough onshore flow for at least a few isolated showers or thunderstorms during peak daytime heating this afternoon. The exception might be increased convective coverage as the upper low in the Gulf will be closer to the area.
a weak area of low pressure is forecast to hang out along the southern California coast while high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest.
Most convection will be along the NM border Sunday into Monday with monsoonal flow on western side of upper ridge and grids reflect higher pops there esp toward the SW Panhandle Sunday evening into Monday.
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A cold front across the eastern Carolinas will linger overnight, then dissipate on Sunday.
1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Cold front just arriving at Jamestown at midnight CDT with regional radars showing some widely scattered showers across the far south. Currently at the surface, a low was at the central border of Saskatchewan/Manitoba with a trough extending south to Stanley/Minot to between New Salem/Bismarck. More humid air with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s were ahead of the trough, with drier air behind it with dewpoints lowering into the lower 50s and 40s. This trough will continue moving east tonight, with a cold front following with winds becoming northwest and gusty. This cold front extended from the Canadian low to near Williston, approaching Dickinson, and through Bowman as of 2 pm CDT. At upper levels, an upper low was over northern Saskatchewan with a trough extending south across Saskatchewan.
350 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The subtropical ridge continues to build over the southern CONUS this morning with a broad ridge axis extending from west to east from the Southern Plains to the western Atlantic. There is a weakness in this ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico where a well-defined upper-level cyclone continues to meander in a general westerly direction. As the ridge continues to build today, mid-level temperatures will warm slightly. This will be reflected by afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s.