Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Marine layer depth started to lower last night in response to the building ridge over the western states, though ultimately this will have a much greater impact on the Pac NW and northern California.
Expect an active pattern over the next few days as an upper ridge sits over the Western CONUS and an upper trough extends from Western Montana to the Great Lakes. Wednesday, the upper ridge moves slightly eastward and temperatures return to the mid-80s across the area.
229 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather with near normal temperatures through Wednesday.
The rest of the Mid-South is dealing with the high heat this afternoon as dewpoints pool and temperatures climb well into the 90s. Wednesday will be similar, with perhaps a bit more afternoon and evening convection, as the upper ridge weakens a bit more.
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Tonight and Wednesday: A broad ridge continues across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Most locations are currently in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s. The broad low amplitude ridge will hold steady across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. With the ridge in place, the heat and humidity will continue and issued a heat advisory for the same general area. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 105-110 range across western portions of the forecast area.
430 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather with near normal temperatures through Wednesday.
150 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather with near normal temperatures through Wednesday.
Prospects for a temporary pattern change remain in focus later this week as a decaying cold front settles anywhere from the southern Texas Panhandle to perhaps as far south as the southern extent of our CWA if convective outflows can accelerate this boundary even further.
Monsoon moisture remains across the Desert Southwest through the week, fueling chances for showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly favoring the higher terrain. The high humidity will help hold temperatures down, especially in areas where rain occurs. Thunderstorms have had a little difficulty getting started today due to the overturning and stabilization that occurred yesterday, plus cooler temperatures this morning, but coverage was slowly increasing as of shortly after noon.
Other solutions are more tied to the upper wave coming out of Nebraska, initially generating convection along an associated cold front in central Nebraska, and then merging with scattered convection along the aforementioned frontogenetical zone in central Kansas. Much of the daytime hours Wednesday looks dry in the wake of the departing upper wave, and this should allow for an increase in sunshine and likewise warmer afternoon temperatures; 85 to 90 degrees probable in most areas.
1118 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Current surface map places cold front into northeast Wyoming through northwest South Dakota. Scattered/isolated thunderstorms continue in vicinity of cold front. Cold front continues to drop southward today and will be through the forecast area by early afternoon. High pressure settles in over the Northern Plains tonight with seasonably cool temperatures. Northwest flow aloft continues through the week as upper low stalls out north of the Great Lakes. As eastern trough weakens, western CONUS ridge breaks down allowing the hot airmass to spread back into the plains.
117 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A large upper low will be fairly stationary over central Canada for the next couple of days.
A building upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue the dry conditions and warming trend across our area (SE Oregon and SW Idaho). Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, with highs meeting or exceeding 100F in some of the lower valley locations.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Very hot and humid conditions continue as upper ridging remains across the region today. Decided to extend our current Heat Advisory through the overnight period and into tomorrow evening, as upper ridging will keep hot and humid conditions across the region. However, the ridge is expected to expand more into the Southern Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, which should limit the northern extent of the precipitation.
High pressure will be sitting over Pacific Northwest this week bringing an extended stretch of hot weather. The coast will be relatively cooler due to onshore marine flow. Troughing will build in over the weekend for cooler temperatures.
Meanwhile, a cold front extended from nw MN to WY. This is ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into our far nw cwa by sunrise. During the afternoon, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
308 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper-air analysis from this morning continues to feature some troughing across the north-central U. Meanwhile, ridging continues from the Pacific northwest to the Deep South.
Currently there is an elongated, hamburger shaped, upper level high pressure overhead. This area of high pressure is oriented west to east from the Desert Southwest, over the FA, to the southeastern states. Southwest, downsloping, winds will drop dewpoints into the lower 50s creating some low RH's, around 20 percent, across the area this afternoon. For tomorrow, some slightly cooler highs may be present in the far northwestern corner of the FA as winds may be northerly from residual outflow boudaries and cloud cover as well. Otherwise highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with some normally hot areas reaching the lower 100s again.
349 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will keep clear and seasonable conditions over the region through Wednesday Night.
Afternoon satellite and upper air analysis reveals longwave troughing across the northern CONUS resulting in busy WNW upper flow over Nebraska and Iowa. The monsoonal moisture streams north over the Great Basin and stops cold at the base of the trof, taking a hard right and sweeping across Kansas and clips southern Nebraska. FNB is a couple of degrees cooler. Overall sunnier skies will aid in Wednesday's temps climbing a bit higher than they did today, but as the 555dam low continues to spin and slide south over Manitoba/Ontario, another cold front is progged to sweep through the area Wednesday night.
At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly cloudy and winds have switched around to the northwest behind a cold front that is almost through the CWA. However, beginning to see the cold front up in North Dakota and Minnesota become active here this afternoon. Overall, the region is being influenced at the surface/in-the-low- levels by high pressure working down out of Canada tonight through Wednesday night. The low level neutral air or cold air advection pattern will help keep the lid on temperatures Wednesday, with highs likely only topping out in the 70s, with some low 80s possible down over southwest and south central South Dakota.
133 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A large upper level area of low pressure will remain located near Hudson Bay through Wednesday. Meanwhile upper level ridging has expanded northward across the Pacific west coast states. At the surface a weak cold front is sagging southward through the area. Moisture will certainly not be lacking, with east to southeast low-level flow north of the weak cold front continuing to advect Gulf moisture northwest into the area.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) The forecast is fairly mundane as the short term continues to be dominated by the upper ridge, which will be inching westward over the next several days. With the western movement of the ridge, precipitation chances will continue to shift westward as well, restricting any storm development to the higher terrain.
1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Cold front remains stalled to the north.
141 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 It will be fair and cooler today with a mix of clouds and sun.
1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Tuesday looks to be another hot and dry day, followed by a "cooler" day Wednesday with better chances for showers and storms, mainly across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Sub-tropical high pressure aloft continues to dominate our weather pattern, and in combination with dry soils, above normal temperatures will result. Even so, highs will climb into the upper 90s across the Hill County to the lower 100s elsewhere, with peak heat index values in the 105 to 108 F range along the I-35 corridor and areas south and east.
721 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather with near normal temperatures through Wednesday.
Ensembles are in good agreement that upper level ridging will lead to above normal temperatures over the next several days.
532 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper low centered over northern Manitoba. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through much of the week as the upper low stalls out to the north of the Great Lakes. As the eastern trough weakens, the western CONUS upper ridge will break down, allowing the hot airmass to spread back over the plains.
652 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will sustain dry conditions and light winds through most of the night across Se Mi. Light low level south-southwest winds will develop overnight in response to an approaching sfc cold front and mid level trough.
914 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A front across central Virginia and southern Maryland will return north as a warm front overnight through Wednesday.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across MN later this afternoon as a cold front advances. Skies should become clearer from west to east overnight after the cold frontal passage.
An isolated shower can be expected in the High Plains region overnight. /ISSUED 600 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022/ An upper level ridge has built in over our region today bringing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A quick weak disturbance is expected to bring an isolated shower to the High Plains region late tonight, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear skies for overnight Tuesday. As the upper level ridge stays to our north, a stationary front moves in from the west that is expected to bring scattered showers along the Rocky Mountain Front for Wednesday.
The HRRR/RAP do bring this activity into our area as the cold front moves in from the west overnight. Forecast soundings do show the atmosphere remaining uncapped with tall, skinny CAPE around Wednesday morning ahead of the cold front.
Precipitation in that area will diminish later this evening behind the trough. As time goes on with this pattern with a series of troughs, the flood potential builds with each round of convection with limited allowance for runoff/saturation of soil.
Upper low pressure over Manitoba/Ontario will continue churn in a somewhat stationary fashion through the period. Cooler air will continue to filter into the region leading to moderately below average temperatures Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 60s north central to the mid 70s south.
Portions of central Nevada will see slightly cooler temperatures as a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms fire off each afternoon, mainly south of US Highway 50.
648 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Summary: A cool week ahead with several cold fronts bringing showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week. A cold front is moving through the Northland today. 5â will support healthy rainfall totals with whatever convection continues with the cold front this evening. After the cold front passes, it appears fog may be a threat overnight as saturated soils with clearing skies should generate a good environment for fog. A weaker cold front will cross Wednesday for more shower activity, but most of that should be north of Highway 2. High pressure builds for the latter half of the week giving quiet weather.
631 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will keep clear and seasonable conditions over the region through Wednesday Night.
/NF/ Tonight and Wednesday: A broad ridge continues across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Most locations are currently in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s. The broad low amplitude ridge will hold steady across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. With the ridge in place, the heat and humidity will continue and issued a heat advisory for the same general area. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 105-110 range across western portions of the forecast area.
744 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
708 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will prevail through late week. Any redevelopment of late night convection from off the ocean looks less favorable than recent nights, given the lack of isentropic ascent and the low level flow too parallel, if not even offshore of the coast. Min temps will be similar to or maybe even a tad warmer than last night. High pressure will be situated across the Atlantic as weak troughing lingers just to the north.
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A large upper level area of low pressure will remain located near Hudson Bay through Wednesday. Meanwhile upper level ridging has expanded northward across the Pacific west coast states. At the surface a weak cold front is sagging southward through the area. Moisture will certainly not be lacking, with east to southeast low-level flow north of the weak cold front continuing to advect Gulf moisture northwest into the area.
A warming trend sets up as the Atlantic ridge axis begins to build across north-central Florida. As a result, the highest rain chances will be along and west of I-95 in the afternoon. Locations that miss out on the rain and cloud cover will have no problem reaching the low to mid 90s. A ridge axis will be established between north-central/central FL.
652 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Current surface analysis indicates the cold front begin to push into the western portions of our CWA this afternoon, with present SPC surface mesoanalysis suggesting an instability axis - on the order of 2000 J/KG - lying west of Interstate 29. On Wednesday, an upper level low rotates over central Canada with a vort lobe swinging into our area by afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms with highs in the lower to mid 80s. With cold air advection, temperatures will drop into the the lower 50s through the Highway 14 corridor to upper 50s in the MO River corridor.
913 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 A front across central Virginia and southern Maryland will return north as a warm front overnight through Wednesday.
932 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will prevail through late week. High pressure will be situated across the Atlantic as weak troughing lingers just to the north.
839 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Scattered showers are dissipating but have threatened Sheridan county this evening as they are close enough to a closed low over central Canada.
421 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Summary: A cool week ahead with several cold fronts bringing showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week. A cold front is moving through the Northland today. 5â will support healthy rainfall totals with whatever convection continues with the cold front this evening. After the cold front passes, it appears fog may be a threat overnight as saturated soils with clearing skies should generate a good environment for fog. A weaker cold front will cross Wednesday for more shower activity, but most of that should be north of Highway 2. High pressure builds for the latter half of the week giving quiet weather.
Our week long heat event has started as strong high pressure system will continue to sit over our area. Coastal areas will remain cooler due to onshore flow. Troughing will build late in the weekend for cooler temperatures.
Cooler than average high temperatures will also be a result of this pattern. Plenty of convection around southern Arizona today and it got an early start over some of the higher terrain around 9:30 am. Upper level diffluence noted over much of southeast AZ associated with inverted trough nearby that is giving the storms a boost. Wednesday looks similar in many ways with plenty of moisture and an assist from the inverted trough likely for much of the area.
1029 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather with near normal temperatures through most of Wednesday.
Flow remains ESE with the ridge still extending westward across north FLorida.
A similar story is expected on Wednesday with most areas remaining firmly under the influence of strong mid level ridging. We'll be watching a westward moving inverted mid level trough spread across the Gulf tomorrow toward the TX coast.
753 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 After some early morning patchy fog downstream of the Bay of Green Bay and the interior west, focus turns west to an approaching cold front. Forecast for near to below normal temperatures remains on track for the next couple days as an upper level trough tracks across the area.
639 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Very hot and humid conditions continue as upper ridging remains across the region today. Decided to extend our current Heat Advisory through the overnight period and into tomorrow evening, as upper ridging will keep hot and humid conditions across the region. However, the ridge is expected to expand more into the Southern Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, which should limit the northern extent of the precipitation.
A subtle lower level trough has now pushed well west of our area, but elevated lower level moisture and good confluence remains in an uncapped and unstable environment. Short Term Update - Robust Atlantic ridging will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern overnight, keeping moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Keys. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through the overnight period.
929 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Current surface analysis indicates the cold front begin to push into the western portions of our CWA this afternoon, with present SPC surface mesoanalysis suggesting an instability axis - on the order of 2000 J/KG - lying west of Interstate 29. On Wednesday, an upper level low rotates over central Canada with a vort lobe swinging into our area by afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms with highs in the lower to mid 80s. With cold air advection, temperatures will drop into the the lower 50s through the Highway 14 corridor to upper 50s in the MO River corridor.
The main trough axis and jet streak will pivot through the Great Lakes region late tonight and early Thursday bringing additional chances for light rain early in the day with a cold front.
The cold front precipitation will be more strongly forced by the northern stream jet core, so that is why we will have a second area of heavier precipitation north of this area. The upper trough swings through the area on Thursday. Normally this would bring more convection to the area but the jet core is south of I-96 when the upper trough is coming through.
Tonight and Wednesday MSAS analysis showed a cold front extending from northeast MN to SD.
A few places along and west of I-65 could see Heat Index values into the low 100s in the afternoons as well.
248 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains.
STP A large upper low will be fairly stationary over central Canada for the next couple of days. 500mb heights will be slightly higher than today resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, but pretty much normal for this time of year.
/33/ (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Ongoing heat wave to begin to break from the north as a cold front begins to ease south across the I-30 corridor on Thursday night.
Tomorrow will see temperatures trend warmer than today, lining up with the start of the Heat Advisory. An upper ridge will continue over the PacNW through Thursday. Hot afternoon temperatures (at or above 100F) along with warm overnight lows are expected in the lower elevations of SE Oregon and far SW Idaho Wednesday through the end of the week.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) The subtropical ridge is now fractured with an anticyclone across the NW CONUS and another forecast to be centered INVOF LBB today. Storm potential remains confined to the wrn areas in proximity to the mid-level theta-e ridge. Aforementioned described pattern doesn't change much on Thu, heights decrease slightly, theta-e ridge farther w (less precip across the far w), and high temps will trend down a couple degrees (still 2-5 degrees above normal).
The high humidity will make heat index values in the low 100s along and west of I-65.
A warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to mainly the southwest part of the forecast area. However, expect scattered to numerous showers to continue to overspread the rest of central Pa in association with isentropic lift ahead of the advancing warm front. It will be a warmer and more humid day/night with maxes & mins running about +5-10F warmer vs.
130 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 High pressure will prevail through late week. High pressure will be situated across the Atlantic as weak troughing lingers just to the north.
Further east, expect lows to drop a bit further into the lower 70s.
Could see some light showers/sprinkles from the early morning activity linger and even redevelop along a cold front as it drifts across area later this morning into the early afternoon. Temps will be mild again today with highs in the low 80s, but given the weaker and slower frontal passage, dewpoints are progged to be a bit higher in the mid 60s. This will bring an additional secondary cold front across WI overnight aiding any shower activity, but there will not be much in the way of upper-level support to sustain more organized convection. Temps are expected to be cooler as well with highs only in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees Thursday and overnight lows dipping into the mid 50s.
Otherwise, cooler than normal weather will persist across the midweek period, with some gustier winds out there today. An upper level low will continue to churn over south central Ontario and induce generally north-northwesterly flow aloft over the northern Plains. Along with precipitation chances, the upper low is expected to deepen, yielding gusty winds out of the north-northwest, with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible at times today. With clearing skies anticipated overnight, low temperatures will look to drop down into the low 50s, with some 40s certainly possible if ideal radiational cooling is allowed to occur. The upper low is expected to translate eastward, however, and as a result, precipitation potential should be confined to northwestern Minnesota. Large scale pattern shifts as upper low breaks down and broad ridging redevelops across the southern CONUS.
Vigorous upper low pinwheeling swwd of Hudson Bay will propel a weak prefrontal trough into the area late day. Hudson Bay upper low releases ewd through James Bay late Thu as weak cold front crosses midday. Lackluster frontal based forcing present along this feature and in light of swd moisture shunt from prefrontal trough will drop prior aftn rain chances.
Will include a prob30 group for thunder at TRI during the period when the highest probability is likely to occur Wednesday afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 93 74 90 / 30 10 30 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 74 91 73 88 / 40 30 50 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 90 72 86 / 40 30 50 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 70 86 70 83 / 50 40 60 50 80.