Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This frontal system should be south of our CWA by 06z-12z Wed as it ushers in a cooler and drier airmass for the extended. Still enough lift generated by perturbations in the overall upper trough to warrant continued low pops for the extreme southern tier. Front clears the entire area by Wed afternoon as East Coast upper trough continues to deepen.
1232 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 High pressure will cross the region today with plenty of sunshine and near seasonal temperatures. High pressure will build across the region from Labrador by mid week. especially in the north 1/3 of the forecast area where the thickening clouds and a chilly east flow will limit highs to the lower 50s. High pressure will continue to build across the region early today and then move off the New england coast this afternoon. An upper low across the northern Great Lakes will drop slowly south through the period.
/ISSUED / Storms near the coast have waned and storms over the Hill Country expanding west with mid level troughing from HOU-CLL and mid level ridging from LFK-BPT-BYY. At 4 am front looks to be along a line from Longview to Waco to Junction with ridging having helped to back our winds to the northeast and shifting low level convergence into the Gulf. The clouds will persist today given the moisture present but the lower cigs should improve by mid morning or so and transition over to CU and abundant high clouds so we should struggle to get to the mid 80s. This afternoon scattered precip develops as front sags southward and by 3 to 6 pm should be close to the Highway 59 corridor probably pushing offshore tonight/early Tuesday.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: short term begins with the warmest temperatures over the California and Oregon Coasts pointing northward into a ridge that runs into southern British Columbia and northern Alberta. This and a trough to the east has placed northeast Montana under northwest flow aloft. Farther west a second trough is developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Tuesday: Ridge will move eastward across eastern Montana.
The cold front had made its way through the region with the lingering post frontal rainfall associated with the 700-850MB front. Canadian high pressure and upper level northwesterly flow will work to limit afternoon highs to around the 70 degree mark today. The overall weather pattern will be little changed from today through tonight allowing for clear skies and cooler temperatures will lows in the 40s expected. The Ozarks will remain on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge with reinforcing rounds of Canadian high pressure moving south through the plains.
1120 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front continues to move across the area. /issued 728 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/ Cold front continues to make slow but steady progress across Northeast Texas this morning. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible through the remainder of today with a cold front continuing to advance east across the region. /issued 422 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/ Cold front entered our northwest CWA early this morning and is now just south of I-30 with a few showers developing invof the front during the past hour. Due to the lack of deep layer moisture and limited upper level support, have maintained lower pops despite the presence of this front which should continue to slow its forward progress as it encounters some resistance due to weak ridging still present to the east.
955 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 A high pressure ridge axis will push east of the region today. with very warm high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 for the lower elevations with upper 70s/lower 80s mountains.
712 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 /12Z TAFs/ Challenges will continue for at least through 18Z-21Z today, as a cold front continues marching into Central TX. /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/ Noticeably cooler air is pouring into North Texas, but the frontal passage has yet to bring an end to the rain.
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Aviation sections updated Colder and drier air will flow in behind a cold front today, ending rain this morning. An upper low will bring more rain chances mid to late week. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms were along and just ahead of a cold front moving through central Indiana early this morning.
908 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 An inverted trough was located over the Atlantic waters to the east of Georgia this morning, with scattered showers and isolated storms moving into the coastal locations. The inverted trough will move northward today, and a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop tonight east of South Carolina. Winds will become offshore tonight due to the developing low pressure, with dry conditions prevailing overnight. Highs today are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s for coastal locations and mid to upper 80s inland.
/issued 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017/ High pressure at the sfc and nw flow aloft will continue to influence our weather through Friday.
A few subtle impulses ride down the backside of the upper trough overnight. A few subtle waves rotate around the upper trough overnight and this has allowed a few showers to develop north.
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Light winds associated with low- level high pressure settling southeast across the region overnight in concert with clear skies and low dewpoints will support overnight temperatures falling into the 33-38 degree range overnight, coolest over east/southeast Kansas. Otherwise, warmer and quiet weather is expected through Sat, as upper ridging approaches the region from the west. Increasing cross- Rockies flow will strengthen High Plains lee troughing, supporting stout/gusty south winds Fri-Sat.
Much cooler and drier tonight as nw winds will stay up overnight due to a tight pressure gradient. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the 40s with winds making it feel even cooler. A tight pressure gradient between departing low pressure and building high pressure will result in elevated winds and seas through Friday.
The center of high pressure will move in over the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s with a few colder spots maybe just below freezing. We will be on the back side of high pressure tomorrow afternoon with a return of light southerly winds and milder temperatures. Upper level ridging and height rises will occur this weekend. Gusty winds and warmer temperatures can be expected this weekend.
930 PM PDT Thu Apr 6 2017 The marine layer will slowly deepen through Friday ahead of a low pressure trough moving into California from the west.
A mild and increasingly strong southwest flow aloft will continue ahead of a cold upper level trough which will settle across Utah this weekend. Southwesterly flow aloft and mid-level moisture continue to increase this evening ahead of a low pressure system off the Oregon coast. A weak cold front is still progged to push into far northern Utah tomorrow as the storm system ejects northeast, then stall near the southern end of the Great Salt Lake as the upper support lifts farther away.
This will trend will continue as the upper low over the eastern Great Lakes moves east overnight. Lows in the lower to mid 30s still look good. Tilly Dry weather is expected for most of the weekend due to ridging aloft.
Mostly clear skies are expected to continue tonight as mid-level ridging sets up across the region. Leaned toward a blend of the bias- corrected ECMWF and CMC models for the lows. Sfc pressure gradient will also tighten a bit as the high pressure ridge advances to the east, so winds could be a bit gusty during the afternoon and evening Friday. Moisture in the low-levels will be a bit low to support less porous cloud cover, so went with only scattered sky cover in the forecast.
Much Cooler and Drier Tonight into Friday. High pressure will build in from the north and west overnight with much drier/cooler air filtering down the peninsula. High pressure behind the front builds toward the central Gulf of Mexico coast with continued dry and cool WNW-NW flow. This will bring a pleasant and relatively cool day to the region, with high temps in the lower 70s. Hazardous boating condition to cont as the post frontal ridge builds over the Deep South/GOMex, maintaining a moderate to fresh NW breeze.
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Quiet afternoon across the lower Missouri Valley as high pressure continues to approach the area from the west. The presence of this feature should lead to weaker winds along with plenty of sunshine to allow temps to climb into the lower to middle 60s for daytime highs. Pattern shift gets underway heading into the weekend as upper ridging passes overhead as longwave troughing develops over the western U.
1048 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 A cold front is reaching the Florida Keys this evening, increasing the winds and shifting them from the northwest to north. The low and high clouds related to the front eroded over the Florida Keys thanks to the colder waters across Florida Bay and adyacent waters. As of 10 pm, the temperatures along the Keys were already in the mid 70s and are expected to reach the low 70s.
621 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Quiet afternoon across the lower Missouri Valley as high pressure continues to approach the area from the west. The presence of this feature should lead to weaker winds along with plenty of sunshine to allow temps to climb into the lower to middle 60s for daytime highs. Pattern shift gets underway heading into the weekend as upper ridging passes overhead as longwave troughing develops over the western U.
604 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario to Texas will shift slowly eastward tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 30s, with a few upper 20s possible northwest of the Illinois River. High pressure will move overhead on Friday, resulting in a mostly sunny and cool day with high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
753 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 A strong cold front will move off the East Coast late this afternoon. Intensifying low pressure over the Northeast U. High pressure will build over the area from the west over the weekend. The brisk and gusty winds from the WSW continue behind the departing cold front, now moving well NE of the area, as deepening low pressure over the Northeast states generates a tight MSLP gradient over NC. Despite this mixing, thicknesses drop tonight with cold air advection and arrival of subfreezing 850 mb temps, so expect lows of 40-46 under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.
Only a slight shave off the low temps were made. The combination of light winds and clear skies will be supportive of radiational cooling tonight and overnight lows will once again falling into the low to mid 40s for much of the area.
1102 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Light winds associated with low- level high pressure settling southeast across the region overnight in concert with clear skies and low dewpoints will support overnight temperatures falling into the 33-38 degree range overnight, coolest over east/southeast Kansas. Otherwise, warmer and quiet weather is expected through Sat, as upper ridging approaches the region from the west. Increasing cross- Rockies flow will strengthen High Plains lee troughing, supporting stout/gusty south winds Fri-Sat.
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Breezy conditions will continue through Friday afternoon with low pressure over Lake Erie and cool high pressure building across the Mississippi River Valley.
Proton Previous Discussion: Latest 12z models show the upper ridge axis translating east tonight and Friday bringing southwest flow aloft over the western CONUS extending into Montana out ahead of a surface cold front.
With further movement to the southeast in the next couple of hours, snow rates in the ridges should rapidly increase. Accumulation will largely be relegated to the higher terrain, and winter weather advisories have been continued in these areas. Fries While scattered snow showers may persist in the ridges Friday evening, building high pressure will support dry weather for the weekend.
944 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Strong low pressure in central New York State this evening will slowly move northward through the overnight.
1241 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017 Strong low pressure in central New York State this evening will slowly move northward through the overnight.
Brisk nly winds and high waves will continue tonight and Fri as strong low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes slowly moves away. The wrn edge of middle to high clouds will continue to brush far ern WI tonight as the large upper low over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic States slowly moves east. High pressure will gradually approach and dominate Friday. 925 temps modify to 3c to 7c so most areas well into the 50s if not a 60 q or two, esp in our western sections closer to the expected warmer 925 temps.
The wrn edge of middle to high clouds will continue to brush far ern WI tonight as the large upper low over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic States slowly moves east. High pressure will gradually approach and dominate Friday. 925 temps modify to 3c to 7c so most areas well into the 50s if not a 60 q or two, esp in our western sections closer to the expected warmer 925 temps.
High pressure over the Red River at mid afternoon with skies clear over the area. A good 10 degrees warmer in most areas Friday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
724 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Scattered showers will persist across the terminals through 02-06z as the upper level low passes overhead.
726 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will result in showers and windy conditions tonight.
Isolated light showers continue to move in from the northwest at this hour as disturbances move along the back side of the departing trough. However, with very light winds overnight lows should drop into the lower to mid 30s in many areas and produce fairly widespread frosty conditions.
834 PM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 A strong upper level trof is expected to move into the western U. As this upper level trof approaches the region, wind speeds will be on the increase during the next couple of days. On Friday, the low level flow is expected to turn more to the west-southwest which will allow for dewpoints to dip into the 20s across much of the area. Expect a quiet and uneventful overnight as the ridge aloft over eastern Wyoming moves into the Dakotas by morning. Nearly all locations will remain above freezing. Quite mild end to the week with southwest flow aloft and a decent surface lee trough developing across eastern Wyoming.
However, with very light winds overnight lows should drop into the lower to mid 30s in many areas and produce fairly widespread frosty conditions.
632 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 High pressure over the eastern Dakotas will move east tonight as low pressure over the lee of the northern rockies moves into eastern Montana. Current surface analysis places high pressure from near the Red River Valley into the Central Plains, while a trough stretches from generally the Great Basin into the Canadian Rockies. Upper level analysis places well amplified ridge stretching through the Northern Plains towards the Four Corners region. quiet weather remains with a southerly breeze as warmer airmass continues to shift into the area. very mild temperatures expected as ridge remains over the region. Ridge scoots off to the east though temperatures will remain quite mild through the day.
Latest radar imagery indicates the coverage of showers is becoming more scattered as the upper level low exits to the northeast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 59 37 68 / 20 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 55 35 65 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 56 34 66 / 30 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 48 31 62 / 70 10 10 0 NC.
High pressure over the eastern Dakotas will move east tonight as low pressure over the lee of the northern rockies moves into eastern Montana. Current surface analysis places high pressure from near the Red River Valley into the Central Plains, while a trough stretches from generally the Great Basin into the Canadian Rockies. Upper level analysis places well amplified ridge stretching through the Northern Plains towards the Four Corners region. quiet weather remains with a southerly breeze as warmer airmass continues to shift into the area. very mild temperatures expected as ridge remains over the region. Ridge scoots off to the east though temperatures will remain quite mild through the day.
836 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Surface ridging, clear skies and light winds will yield below average lows tonight across the region. Lows in the typical cool spots will drop down to near freezing and thus a frost advisory remains in effect for NE OK and NW AR. High pressure will settle over the the region tonight and with light winds/clear skies, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. A frost advisory was issued earlier for much of the area and will go ahead and include west-central Arkansas, where some of the higher terrain areas could see some light frost.
Freezing level tonight at 13,000 feet and -20C level at 23,000 feet. An upper level low is currently centered near the Great Lakes and progressing eastward. A gradual warming trending will begin this weekend as the upper trough shifts east and weak upper ridge begins moving in from the west.
828 PM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Upper level ridge axis over Colorado this evening with airmass dry and stable. There will be some increase in high level moisture later tonight and Friday as ridge axis shifts a bit east and allows more of a westerly flow. The upper level ridge axis over Colorado today will flatten and shift to the east on Friday.
959 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Intensifying low pressure over the Northeast U. High pressure will build over the area from the west over the weekend. Breezy conditions are expected to continue overnight, as a deep area of low pressure continues to slowly shift northward and deepens. Low temps will be driven by cold advection, with lows generally expected by Friday morning in the lower to mid 40s, with skies ranging from mostly clear to pockets of mostly cloudy as the deep mid level trough remains over the area.
Onshore flow will return tomorrow as the high pressure slides eastward. The ridge will generally drift eastward tonight and Friday and expect onshore winds to begin returning Gulf moisture by midday Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than what occurred today.
1045 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Breezy conditions will continue through Friday afternoon with low pressure over Lake Erie and cool high pressure building across the Mississippi River Valley.
/Issued 836 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017/ Surface ridging, clear skies and light winds will yield below average lows tonight across the region. Lows in the typical cool spots will drop down to near freezing and thus a frost advisory remains in effect for NE OK and NW AR. High pressure will settle over the the region tonight and with light winds/clear skies, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. A frost advisory was issued earlier for much of the area and will go ahead and include west-central Arkansas, where some of the higher terrain areas could see some light frost.
High pressure over the area with L/V winds. High pressure moves southeast into the nearshore waters which allows for east then south-southeast flow albeit only 5-10 knots.
Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario to Texas will shift slowly eastward tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 30s, with a few upper 20s possible northwest of the Illinois River. High pressure will move overhead on Friday, resulting in a mostly sunny and cool day with high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
Will likely continue to see some gusts up near 30mph on the higher ridges up north, but prevailing speeds at the RAWS sites have dropped below advisory criteria already. Still think winds and cloud up north will keep all but a few of the higher mountain valleys above freezing tonight. Broken cloud cover associated with the upper low in the Great Lakes region has blanketed much of north Georgia through the day, but these clouds will gradually scatter and diminish tonight as the low pulls away. Temperatures overnight are forecast to remain above freezing with perhaps a few spotty exceptions in the highest elevations in northeast Georgia. Friday will bring still-gusty winds, though most of the higher gusts will only be in the 25 mph range as opposed to the 35-40 mph gusts today.
This is one of those nights when valleys will drop to near or below freezing and ridge tops will remain well above freezing, so there is no clear cut solution.
This wave has sent a cold front south into Montana. Templer Previous Discussion - SYNOPTIC SETUP: Short term begins with high pressure aloft centered over the Montana/Dakota border which has spread its influence back into southern Saskatchewan. This evening through Sunday: Ridge axis to the east will topple over as the trough exits the front range and forms up a cold front. Cold front will move through overnight but also run into a surface inversion.
Short wave has been dropping south bound today from mid west will close off a low over far southern Middle Tennessee tonight with the low pulling off toward the east on Sunday.
The November of seemingly endless sunshine (during our climatologically cloudiest month no less!) will continue during the short term, with another dry cold front expected to move into MN Sunday afternoon. Going forecast is pretty much right on track, with high pressure that was overhead yesterday continuing to build into the southeast CONUS. In these regimes, even with the clear skies, the higher end of the model spread has been what is verifying, so trended to the blended forecast toward the bias corrected regional Can. Blended guidance in patterns such as this has been nowhere near warm enough this month, so went several degrees warmer than the SuperBlend, especially in eastern MN/western WI. Although model differences remain, the overall evolution of a deep trough exiting the Rockies, and moving northeast across the Plains, and into the Upper Midwest, is persistent.
The upper level low to the west of the area will cross the Panhandles tomorrow while another upper low gets pinched off just off of the west coast. Temps will being a warming trend for the beginning of the work week as ridging builds in. Mid level heights begin to fall midweek as the closed low gets picked up by the main flow as part of a longwave trough.
An expansive 1029mb high pressure center over the Ohio River Valley continues to sink southward at this hour. For tonight, the aforementioned high pressure system will build in over the next several hours and become nearly centered over the Mid-South by midnight. Very light to nearly calm wind, clear skies, and dry air will allow temperatures to cool into the low to mid 30s areawide. The current freeze watch was upgraded to a freeze warning due to the degree of confidence with respect to coverage of freezing temperatures. Highs will be slightly warmer than today with readings in the low 60s north and upper 60s south.
725 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure will build across the eastern U.
WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over the South Plains, and starting to move east. Models still bring a vort max thru the base of the trough overnight thru the Big Bend Area, for a chance of -SHRA.
513 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Ridge axis stretching from southwest Kansas through northern Missouri into northern Illinois will drift south through the area tonight. The ridge axis will be down over the eastern Ozarks by 12Z Sunday morning and with light wind, a crystal clear sky, and cool dry air in place, we should have excellent radiational cooling conditions. Remainder of the area will be in the low to mid 30s as the wind should be turning to the south during the pre-dawn hours. may need to go even warmer if warm advection turns out to be stronger.