Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rising mid level heights continue today as upper ridge expands further into the central and southern plains.
Much like yesterday, look for hot and muggy conditions to prevail throughout the day, as upper level ridging continues to strengthen overhead. In regard to temperatures, currently have afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s, with locations west of the James River Valley reaching the low 100s. Nonetheless, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, expect to see heat indices to soar into the low 100s for a vast majority of the area. Should start to see some relief from the heat tonight as a cold front sags southward across the region.
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A weak short wave rounding the upper ridge combined with the llj and good instability was bringing some scattered showers and storms to northeast sd and west central mn early this morning. Satellite also showed abundant cirrus riding around the top of the ridge across northern sd. The timing of the front and subsequent increase in winds along with the lowest rhs will be an issue mainly for central sd this afternoon with the dry fuels.
354 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A trough of low pressure lingers across the area today.
1254 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 An upper level ridge will remain centered over the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday. This will drive a cold front southward into central South Dakota. A slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night after midnight across north central NE, as the cold front drops into the area.
331 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A strong U/L ridge over the central plains extends to the southeast U. bridging with another area of high pressure over the western Atlantic. An U/L disturbance will push across New England today with an associated L/W trough digging down the eastern seaboard. The southern extent of the trough will cause a break/weakness in the ridge over the Florida peninsula.
Convection will be possible as an upper trough passes to the south, w/best chances KMAF during the afternoon.
Otherwise, the high level cirrus from the storm blowoff covered much of the CWA. Temperatures are still expected to climb into the low to mid 90s.
An upper level low can be seen in WV imagery off the coast of Brownsville. This low will continue moving westward tonight into tomorrow, giving the area another chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially south of Interstate 20. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low to mid 70s. Highs on Wednesday should be a few degrees cooler as the upper level low weakens the ridge slightly, allowing for lower heights and a few degrees of cooling at the surface.
248 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A trough of low pressure lingers across the area today.
A few of these showers are expected to continue into the daylight hours of today as weak waves move across the upper ridge over the area. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday for highs with in the lower to mid 90s in most areas and 85 to 90 north.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 72 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 71 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 95 70 96 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 67 94 70 90 / 0 0 0 20 40.
A weak cold front is pulling up stationary over southern Arkansas with it's air mass core at 1017mb over the boot heel of MO.
Large scale pattern consisting of a dome of high pressure in control across the central and western CONUS with decent moisture riding over the top across the Pacific NW/northern Rockies. At the surface an area of low pressure was centered over n-central SD.
311 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Another hot and sunny day in store for the region as ridging aloft edges eastward towards the area and bubble of high pressure at the surface drifts overhead. Highs this afternoon will likely be around or slightly warmer than what we have seen the past couple of days, topping out in the lower to mid 90s.
Low pressure over the western Dakotas and into Wyoming is moving east as well along with an attendant cold front. This boundary will make progress southeast today as a short wave overtops the massive upper high that is just west of the state. Storms have already fired on the nose of the low level jet over northeast South Dakota and into west central Minnesota.
With the warm dew points continuing overnight, it will be another warm night with slightly cooler temperatures possible in river valleys.
Convection will be possible as an upper trough passes to the south, w/best chances KMAF during the afternoon. The southern plains and our region will remain on the southern periphery of the high. Today and tonight temperatures will remain near to above normal as the highest heights remain to the north of the region.
High pressure will provide mainly VFR conditions and light NNE winds through the next 24 hours.
945 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 The main concerns in the short term period are the hot temperatures and associated Maximum Heat Index values in the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the late afternoon and early evening as ambient air temperatures and heat index values in a couple of locations across southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas are currently in the lower 100s.
436 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 High pressure will move down from Canada today and bring dry weather to the North Country.
Afternoon temperatures will likely hit 98 to 100 degrees across much of the forecast area as low level thickness values continue to slowly tick upward as the large upper level high continued to expand across the Central Plains.
This mid level instability along the periphery of the upper level ridge will continue today, and will aid in the development of showers and storms this afternoon in the same area.
155 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The main concerns in the short term period are the hot temperatures and associated Maximum Heat Index values in the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the late afternoon and early evening as ambient air temperatures and heat index values in a couple of locations across southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas are currently in the lower 100s.
220 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, combined with a mid level water vapor loop, clearly shows the strong upper level ridging in place over the central portion of the country.
230 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Current surface map places cold front from central North Dakota to southeast Montana. Upper level high remains across the central plains. Cold front slips into far northwest South Dakota over the next few hours, into the I-90 corridor late this morning, then through southwest and south central SoutH Dakota late this afternoon/evening.
1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A stretch of sultry July weather continues across the Ozarks, with highs expected to climb into the low to mid-90s and high humidity.
1133 PM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Current surface analysis shows a warm front across northern portions of the area, with high pressure well to the northeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over the central high plains. The hot conditions will continue for one more day before a back door cold front finally brings some relief for the rest of the week. The cold front will slowly move south across the area during the daytime hours, with good potential for breezy conditions to develop behind the front, especially across northern areas.
352 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Generally look for slightly cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions today. The end result will be slightly cooler temperatures for some, while continued warm readings for others. Drying conditions will also allow for cooler overnight lows tonight, mainly in the 50s and 60s.
(Today and tonight) Mid level moisture will continue to shift southward as the upper ridge does the same throughout the day. A few diurnal isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and south of I-40 this afternoon but today will likely be the lowest coverage we've seen over the past several days. Afternoon highs should be near, or even 1-2 degrees warmer than, yesterday with very similar conditions present.
High pressure over the region will keep VFR in place through the next 24 hours, with the exception of patchy shallow fog late in the night.
Another hot and sunny day in store for the region as ridging aloft edges eastward towards the area and bubble of high pressure at the surface drifts overhead. Highs this afternoon will likely be around or slightly warmer than what we have seen the past couple of days, topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Look for the approaching cold front to light up over central Indiana in the early/mid afternoon, with storms progressing due south to the I-64 corridor by early evening, and near the KY/TN border around midnight. Weekend will be a transitional period with a Hudson Bay low diving south to deepen the eastern CONUS upper trof.
501 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Models show upper level ridge center remaining parked over Kansas this period. The combination of hot temperatures and the high humidity levels will create dangerous afternoon heat indices once again for today.
535 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, combined with a mid level water vapor loop, clearly shows the strong upper level ridging in place over the central portion of the country.
A weak short wave rounding the upper ridge combined with the llj and good instability was bringing some scattered showers and storms to northeast sd and west central mn early this morning. Satellite also showed abundant cirrus riding around the top of the ridge across northern sd. The timing of the front and subsequent increase in winds along with the lowest rhs will be an issue mainly for central sd this afternoon with the dry fuels. For tonight and Thursday, cooler and drier air will move in from the north as high pressure builds in. Highs will be in the 80s to the lower 90s with dry conditions and partly cloudy skies on Thursday. Cooler temperatures will be the overarching theme through this forecast period. That is, cooler compared to what the current week has featured so far.
748 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 High pressure will move down from Canada today and bring dry weather to the North Country. Thursday will start out dry, but as a trough of low pressure moves into the region the chances for precipitation will increase Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night.
945 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A hot and humid day is on tap for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure promotes mostly sunny and dry weather over the area. Given the lack of cloud cover, temperatures should be able to make it well into the mid 90s by this afternoon, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s.
Hot and humid conditions wl cont to be the highlight of the fcst the next few days.
912 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Interaction between high pressure ridging across southern Florida and troughing over the southeast U.
635 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid level moisture will continue to shift southward as the upper ridge does the same throughout the day. A few diurnal isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and south of I-40 this afternoon but today will likely be the lowest coverage we've seen over the past several days. Afternoon highs should be near, or even 1-2 degrees warmer than, yesterday with very similar conditions present.
Generally look for slightly cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions today. The end result will be slightly cooler temperatures for some, while continued warm readings for others. Drying conditions will also allow for cooler overnight lows tonight, mainly in the 50s and 60s.
620 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A trough of low pressure lingers across the area today.
Convection will be possible as an upper trough passes to the south, w/best chances KMAF during the afternoon. WV imagery shows the upper ridge now centered over the central Rockies/Central Plains, whereas farther south, an inverted trough is making landfall on the south Texas coast. This afternoon, as the inverted trough moves farther west towards the Big Bend Area, convective chances will increase across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as height falls commence. However, as precipitation is never a guarantee w/troughs such as this, chances will remain scattered at best. Thursday, areal coverage will once again revert to the higher terrain out west during the afternoon, nearer the departing trough. An added upside to the trough will be increased cloud cover and a decrease in thicknesses, shaving around 5F off afternoon highs and below-normal temperatures for much of the area.
839 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Rain chance will slowly escalate and become likely with a Thursday cold front.
1034 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Surface analysis depicts a sprawling dome of high pressure centered in the North-Central Atlantic as a weak upper-level trough wanes over the Southeast United States. A well-defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell is also advecting towards the Florida Peninsula, but it is nearly void of all convection. From synopsis, a ridge axis will straddle Florida and the Keys over the next several days.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the central and southern plains is forecast to remain nearly stationary through Thursday night. This ridge is expected to remain strong enough to suppress shower and thunderstorm development today and Thursday.
/issued 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ A strong U/L ridge over the central plains extends to the southeast U. bridging with another area of high pressure over the western Atlantic. An U/L disturbance will push across New England today with an associated L/W trough digging down the eastern seaboard. The southern extent of the trough will cause a break/weakness in the ridge over the Florida peninsula.
Another very hot day in store, with high temps reaching the low 90s, potentially mid 90s over the interior.
Today is starting out a little cooler and drier (likely influenced by the evening storms and associated outflow boundaries) with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s inland to around 80 at the coast and dew points ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s at a majority of observation sites.
807 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A trough of low pressure lingers across the area today.
High pressure over the central Rockies and plain states will usher in monsoon moisture into the region resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Expect a few showers/storms along the boundary as the favorable side of an inverted trough will be moving overhead. An inverted trough (easterly wave) will move westward across South Texas today reaching NE Mexico by early evening.
527 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Rain chance will slowly escalate and become likely with a Thursday cold front.
Some sprinkles may even be possible across the higher elevations of Tuolumne County early this morning. Current temperatures are cooler across most of the area given the clearing that has taken place, but a relatively weak Delta Breeze is resulting in milder readings across the Sacramento and Stockton areas.
430 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The upper ridge over the CONUS will continue to build today and heights continue to rise across northeast Colorado. Recent runs of the HRRR Smoke model suggest a continued relative break in smoke concentrations as flow around the high keeps most of it north of Colorado. Subsidence and warm, dry air aloft will continue to suppress convection but moisture will start to increase over the mountains as the ridge slowly shifts east, which should allow for some isolated to scattered storms over the high terrain. Skies will clear overnight but lows will still be a bit warmer than normal, in the mid 60s across the plains and 40s and 50s in the high country.
An inverted trough (easterly wave) will move westward across South Texas today reaching NE Mexico by early evening.
Current temperatures are in the 90s with dewpoints in the low/middle 70s.
to a blend of the highest CAMs available then limit it back to roughly 20% in order to catch the the isolated and splotchy nature of the morning showers. A few of these showers are expected to continue into the daylight hours of today as weak waves move across the upper ridge over the area. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday for highs with in the lower to mid 90s in most areas and 85 to 90 north. More weak waves move across the ridge tonight, Thursday and Thursday Night.
316 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominate feature across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon. the ridge is progged to remain in control over the region with afternoon temperatures each day close to or a degree or so warmer compared to the day before.
1145 AM PDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Slightly warmer than average high temperatures look likely into the foreseeable future over the forecast area. This is due to moist southeasterly flow that is typical for this time of the year due to ridging over the central/western US. This pattern of elevated moisture and instability will stay in place through the weekend as easterly waves rotating around the ridge of high pressure enter the region.
The upper high is expanding its influences southeastward into our area today and the ridge will strengthen even more tomorrow.
255 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 A well-defined cumulus cloud line developed over the Lower Keys earlier this afternoon.
Although with the freezing level at 14000 feet and not too much of a chance for any rotating updrafts quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main threats.
156 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Will maintain the low chance PoPs in the forecast with the boundary - mainly south of I-80 through the evening - but generally not expecting much beyond a storm or two with strong wind gusts. Lingering cloud cover from the weakening MCS may delay destabilization and convective development in advance of the approaching cold front.
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Upper level high pressure remains centered over the central Plains with hazy, hot, and humid conditions persisting across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas this afternoon. As of 3 PM, temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the 99 to 109 range. We have seen some mixing down of drier dew points (lower 70s) along the higher terrain of the Ozark plateau, however most locations remain in the middle to even upper 70s. We will have to keep an eye on our central Missouri counties as there is an outside shot that a shower or storm could drift into the region around sunset as a cold front begins to approach from the north.
1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid level moisture will continue to shift southward as the upper ridge does the same throughout the day. A few diurnal isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and south of I-40 this afternoon but today will likely be the lowest coverage we've seen over the past several days. Afternoon highs should be near, or even 1-2 degrees warmer than, yesterday with very similar conditions present.
A cold front moving southeast across the region is analyzed, at this time, almost two-thirds of the way through the CWA this afternoon, located from appx Britton to Murdo. As for temperatures, the low level dry air advection/cold air advection being started this afternoon behind this current cold frontal passage will continue overnight and during the day on Thursday. Much cooler temperature readings are in store for Thursday.
326 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Currently, a low pressure system is situated in central MN and a high pressure system over our region. This ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft is allowing for drier conditions, and light flow at the surface. the ridge of high pressure will be the main feature as it will continue to shift closer to the region. heat indices is the main feature as a strong upper level ridge will bring temperatures into the mid 90s west of I-65 and low- mid 90s to the east. The highest heat indices will be felt west of I-65. Thursday night will bring the CWA it's next chance of mentionable weather as a west to east oriented cold front drops south towards the region.
This mid level instability along the periphery of the upper level ridge will continue today, and will aid in the development of showers and storms this afternoon in the same area. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) A 595dam ridge at the 500mb level will continue to be the predominant weather feature over the next few days and into the weekend. Models are in agreement that West Central Texas will remain at the southern periphery of this ridge.
With high pressure and mostly clear skies in place across the region, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Hot and humid conditions wl cont to be the highlight of the fcst the next few days.
Observations this morning show temperatures in the low 80s with urban locations in the mid 80s. Another hot and sunny day in store for the region as ridging aloft edges eastward towards the area and bubble of high pressure at the surface drifts overhead. Highs this afternoon will likely be around or slightly warmer than what we have seen the past couple of days, topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Look for the approaching cold front to light up over central Indiana in the early/mid afternoon, with storms progressing due south to the I-64 corridor by early evening, and near the KY/TN border around midnight. Weekend will be a transitional period with a Hudson Bay low diving south to deepen the eastern CONUS upper trof.
Given the more limited coverage and strengthening ridge overhead, temperatures will likely soar Thursday into the middle to upper 90's, possibly touching 100 degrees in a few isolated spots of inland southwestern Alabama. To go along with this, surface dewpoints remain in the lower to perhaps even middle 70's for most locations generating heat indices in the 106 to 111 range.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge now centered over the central Rockies/Central Plains, whereas farther south, an inverted trough is making landfall on the south Texas coast. This afternoon, as the inverted trough moves farther west towards the Big Bend Area, convective chances will increase across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as height falls commence. However, as precipitation is never a guarantee w/troughs such as this, chances will remain scattered at best. Thursday, areal coverage will once again revert to the higher terrain out west during the afternoon, nearer the departing trough. An added upside to the trough will be increased cloud cover and a decrease in thicknesses, shaving around 5F off afternoon highs and below-normal temperatures for much of the area.
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Lingering cloud cover from the weakening MCS may delay destabilization and convective development in advance of the approaching cold front.
317 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The forecast concern in the short term will be the cold front moving in through Thursday and resulting thunderstorm chances. An upper level disturbance currently moving into the western Great Lakes Region this afternoon will drive a cold front through north central Nebraska late tonight. The cold front will continue to drop southward on Thursday and reach into southwest Nebraska Thursday afternoon and stall out. Thunderstorm chances will increase overnight across north central Nebraska as the upper ridge breaks down from the Northern Plains.
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The center of the upper level ridge is slowly dropping south towards the forecast area this afternoon which is bringing in drier air aloft.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Models show upper level ridge center remaining parked over Kansas this period. The combination of hot temperatures and the high humidity levels will create dangerous afternoon heat indices once again for today.