Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRETTY MUCH CENTERED RIGHT ALONG THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY FLATTENED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC WILL BE SPLITTING. THIS KEEPS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIED INTO OUR CWA AND THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE WESTERN U.
259 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 UPPER LOW MOVING SWD OVER ERN NM AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. BY 06Z EXPECT THE LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEAKENED ENOUGH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP TO HAVE ENDED. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT PERIODS OF RAIN FINALLY DISSIPATES AND KICKS OUT. A POSITIVELY SLANTED RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN U.
131 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
For tonight, a weak cold front will continue to progress southward across western Kansas with light and variable winds becoming light north to northwesterly. For Friday, an upper low over eastern Nebraska will begin to dive back to the southwest and into parts of north central and south central Kansas, as upper level ridging pushes into the Intermountain West. High temps will be tempered as thickening clouds push into southwestern Kansas with the upper low. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s along the I-70 corridor to the upper 70s to around 80 at Garden and Dodge City, with warmer low to mid 80s from Liberal to Lakin and west.
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST OFF THE COASTLINE OF GEORGIA. GOING WITH A BIT WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO AL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A broad ridge of high pressure over much of the CONUS will continue to bring quiet weather to the region thru the forecast period.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHICH PUTS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIVELY TILTED STRETCHING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE REMAINS MOSTLY IN PLACE. A BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY FROM A VORT MAX THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO. AS A MORE STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS A BIT SOUTH OVER MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NEW MEXICO TEXAS BORDER DROPPING SOUTH. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THESE TYPES OF WEAK FUNNELS ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH COLLIDING GUST FRONTS AND LOCALIZED UPDRAFTS, NOT ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOCYCLONE OR A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM AS A TORNADO WOULD BE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
305 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND BY 12Z IT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM AND HI-RES ARW AND NMM WOULD INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD CONTINUE COMING NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT BRING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUITE AS FAR NORTH WHICH KEEPS THE CONVECTION CONFINED MORE INTO IOWA. THESE MODELS ARE ALSO WEAKER WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
345 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY BRINGING COOLING.
352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015 An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
AS THE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN WARMER TODAY BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SW VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. MAIN FEATURE CAUSING THIS SUMMER PATTERN IS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.
350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper low over southern California this morning will lift northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow morning. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy skies will be in the lower 60s.
331 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT 19Z THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL TO THE W OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE E THIRD OF THE CWA BY 06Z MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. WHILE A STRONG SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DIGS INTO A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FARTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WE FIND A LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE MOISTENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE GUIDANCE. AND LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MID AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the CWA under SW flow aloft. Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls begin across the desert CONUS. Models, particularly the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift in the lwr levels invof the cap. Monday night, as the trough moves into the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading E-NE. Trough will continue exiting into the Central Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the NE.
AND ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS FROM THE SW U. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
419 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HENCE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT WEST.
400 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. THAT OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
239 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW. REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
151 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN DROP SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS NEARLY "SUMMER TYPE" OF FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A SUMMER LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE SIERRA AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
145 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THIS MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY. MID 80S STARTING IN THE LOWER VALLEY TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND RANCHLANDS.
659 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. WET MID TO LATE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
417 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
Cooler and more unsettled weather will set in mid-to-late this week. Gusts through the delta to 35 mph this onshore push has temps 5 degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago. The onshore flow has helped to keep temperatures in the valley a few degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
325 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING AS WELL. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER C AND N TX INTO OK. THE RIDGE MAY BREAKDOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROF AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.
428 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 ONE MORE RELATIVELY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE UNTIL CHANGES UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO LATE WEEK.
A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES A LITTLE CLOSER AS A PERTURBATION A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BECAUSE OF THIS AND HAVE SIDED TOWARD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
A cold front will approach the area late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after midnight.
623 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW. REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
COLDER DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. AND MOIST (FOR MAY) UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER PASSES OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL CLEARING/DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY.
202 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY. THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH.
Cooler and more unsettled weather will arrive by the middle of the week.
247 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
339 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015 A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of Missouri.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET BRANCH AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. A BUILDING 700MB RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY/LIGHT WINDS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE 700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. MODELS MOVE AN H500 LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA EAST AS A LARGE H500 TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN US BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A strong cold front is expected Monday night and will likely return our temperatures into the 60s Tuesday. Cooler and breezy weather is in the forecast for Tuesday.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AGAIN TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
/ISSUED 918 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SPARSE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COASTAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT AROUND THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST WHILE FURTHER INLAND THEY WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW OFF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. SW CONUS UPPER LOW COMING ON SHORE AND IS PROVIDING BACKING LL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BACK FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR.
SFC/UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SERN US WAS KEEP A CDFNT/CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES ATTM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE SERN US FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE EXCEPT FOR A NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY BEARING DOWN ON THE WESTERN STATES. THIS LOW MAKES LANDFALL SOMETIME TUE MORNING IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LOW HAS ONLY MADE IT TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OREGON. THE LOW CONTINUES A MORE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT IN THE GFS AND THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURE.
Warm today, gusty wind and cooler temps on Tuesday. This cold front will pass through Idaho and western Montana on Tuesday bringing gusty winds. This cold front on Tuesday will be the beginning of a stretch of cooler weather with a trough expected to overtake the western U.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE ENERGY IS PART OF A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING BACK IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS KEEPING THE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LIFTING OF THE DEEP TROF OVER THE SW INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THE WARMER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY MORNING AS IT PUSHES INTO A MID LEVEL/700MB RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH RIDGING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST WHILE UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN GULF.
332 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
618 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AND COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SUPPORT REPEATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.
211 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW. REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WITH SOME SCT TO ISOLD STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY GIVING THE REGION A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE BASE MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
321 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 UPPER RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS AREA. AND AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO NE LATE IN WEEKEND.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MIDWEEK MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER AND PROMOTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
1132 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 859 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/ THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS OF 9PM AND ALL RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS INCREASED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES MAYBE A DEG OR TWO BUT THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S. CLOUDS WERE QUICK TO CLEAR AND WINDS WERE QUICK TO DIMINISH AFTER THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
341 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE 08Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A DEVELOPING CYCLONE COULD BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 41. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THOUGH 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD CREATE LCL MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT TIMES TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH MORE CLOUDS GATHERING TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. THE OTHER STORY TO START THE WEEK WILL BE GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FM ONTARIO THRU THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND RIDGING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE. THE AIRMASS CHANGE FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AVERAGES 8C AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OR ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN READINGS ON SATURDAY.
344 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF AR.