Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Radar trends reinforce what some of the high res models are suggesting and that is more of an off and on sprinkles to light showers weather event through the early evening hours before the low pressure area currently in the central plains moves northeast and wraps around precipitation moves in. By Sunday morning the low will be in northern MI and all precipitation will be out of the MN area with a few lingering showers in western WI.
805 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure across the region will bring dry weather through Sunday.
Easterly flow continues through Sunday between high pressure to our north, and a trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico.
807 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A cold front will push through the region later Sunday.
A strong cold front will move south across the area overnight. /issued 912 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ Cold front moved through Amarillo around 9 PM, with gusts over 40 mph at times behind it in the Panhandle. /issued 655 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ A strong cold front will move across the terminals from north to south overnight, bringing gusty north winds and some scattered convection along and behind the front through the morning hours. A strong cold front will move south across West Central Texas, arriving at the I-20 corridor around 07Z and south of the I-10 corridor by 13Z. Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday(at least 20 degrees) due to low level cold air advection. The Highest Pops(Cat to Lkly) across the northern half of the area for late tonight.
522 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows an broad upper trough centered across the central third of the CONUS with the main axis now crossing the CWA.
655 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 /00Z TAFS/ A strong cold front will move across the terminals from north to south overnight, bringing gusty north winds and some scattered convection along and behind the front through the morning hours. A strong cold front will move south across West Central Texas, arriving at the I-20 corridor around 07Z and south of the I-10 corridor by 13Z. Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday(at least 20 degrees) due to low level cold air advection. The Highest Pops(Cat to Lkly) across the northern half of the area for late tonight.
The cold front is still progged to begin moving through the area tomorrow afternoon before clearing acadiana to the east late tomorrow evening. This will change with a cold front forecast to move through the area on Sunday. One reason for the low confidence is the cold front on Sunday, that should help to create some lift in the region starting Sunday morning.
624 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Winds will make an abrupt shift to the north later this evening as a strong cold front quickly makes it way through the region. /issued 346 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ All of the excitement is in the first 24-36 hours of the forecast which features the chance of a few strong/severe thunderstorms, a stout cold front (and associated gusty northerly winds) and a potential frost or light freeze. However, the better storm chances will be later this evening into very early Sunday morning as a strong cold front (associated with an upper trough currently emerging over the central and northern High Plains) plunges southward. Shear and instability will be sufficient to support a few strong to marginally severe storms, though the quick moving cold front will quick undercut any updrafts.
1034 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 While the cold front exited our region early this afternoon, breezy to windy conditions have persisted in its wake as the upper level wind gradient remains tight. The forecast area will remain under a significantly cooler airmass, light and variable winds, and clear skies tonight resulting in widespread freezing temperatures. Northwesterly flow will remain in control on Sunday as an area of high pressure builds to our southwest.
Sunday will be much cooler with thermal trof overhead but modified somewhat by generally sunny conditions. Winds will be brisk from the northwest through much of the day but should subside by late afternoon as surface ridging approaches.
This evening's surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge across the eastern CONUS, continuing to help provide east winds across our forecast area.
41 High pressure remains anchored from north Georgia up to the mid Atlantic region. A light easterly flow around the High has helped maintain a large area of low clouds across much of north & central Georgia.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 83 51 68 / 0 60 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 80 49 65 / 0 70 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 81 50 65 / 0 70 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 81 49 62 / 0 50 60 10.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s to lower 30s over a large area from southwest into north central ND, with warmer temperatures in the northwest and south central. At upper levels, a trough stretched across the Canadian prairies to the western Dakotas, with its base over Wyoming and western Colorado. Tonight the upper level trough pushes eastward into Minnesota and Iowa by around midnight, replacing the southwest flow aloft over ND today with northwesterly flow tonight. The strongest winds will likely be in the higher elevations of southwestern ND and also along the Coteau east of the Missouri River. Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry, mild conditions to the forecast through much of the week, with daytime temperatures reaching the 60s.
727 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The area of low pressure will lift north along the coast tonight as high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic ridges into the region through Sunday.
Only one CAM supported fog development, likely under the ridge axis where lighter winds could allow for favorable conditions before picking back up and mixing out.
The low will then continue to pull away from the region Sunday. In the wake of the trough a quasi- zonal flow pattern will establish and persist through the week.
Upper level trough was quickly departing the region to the east. Behind this trough, drier air, stronger mid-level flow, and downslope flow off the western terrain has allowed conditions to clear and warm through this afternoon. Kept temperatures warmer than model guidance given the favorable pattern for warm conditions.
Approach of a quick moving sfc cold front should bring VCSH 15/15Z NW-15/22Z SE to terminal locations with overcast 5 KFT ceilings.
Much cooler weather will start the new week. Otherwise, dry weather will persist through early Sunday as high pressure slides eastward. A strong trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged to drive a cold front across the area Sunday afternoon, with showers likely.
Some isolated showers are also noted on radar, associated with the northern fringes of an inverted trof moving WWD across the Gulf. The cold front is still progged to begin moving through the area tomorrow afternoon before clearing acadiana to the east late tomorrow evening. This will change with a cold front forecast to move through the area on Sunday. One reason for the low confidence is the cold front on Sunday, that should help to create some lift in the region starting Sunday morning.
839 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A warm front crosses the region tonight allowing a warmer and more moist southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night.
Also during the morning, a cold front should push rather fast across S Central TX and into S TX by midday. but the cooler airmass is not expected to arrive until Sunday Night. Continued warm and humid conditions tonight with another day of warm temperatures on Sunday before cooler air starts to arrive late in the day.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level troughing in the northern Rockies, with a 130- 145kt jet streak from the central Dakotas through the northern Great Lakes. An 850mb low was centered over the High Plains, with a 45kt southwesterly low-level jet in KS transporting moisture into southeast NE/southern IA ahead of the 850mb front.
The current forecast for the overnight period looks on track with temperatures holding in the mid 60s to low 70s for lows ahead of an approaching cold front. A 45kt LLJ will develop overnight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. A decaying line of convection will approach western portions of the CWA by daybreak ahead of the cold front. The cold front will slice through the CWA during the day tomorrow, and temperatures will fall considerably behind the front. For example, the 12z GFS has temperatures at SDF tomorrow around the mid 70s at 11am, but falling to the upper 50s by 5pm behind the cold front. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 40s.
912 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Cold front moved through Amarillo around 9 PM, with gusts over 40 mph at times behind it in the Panhandle. /issued 655 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ A strong cold front will move across the terminals from north to south overnight, bringing gusty north winds and some scattered convection along and behind the front through the morning hours. A strong cold front will move south across West Central Texas, arriving at the I-20 corridor around 07Z and south of the I-10 corridor by 13Z. Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday(at least 20 degrees) due to low level cold air advection. The Highest Pops(Cat to Lkly) across the northern half of the area for late tonight.
744 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A weak cold front will stall across the area tonight. This front will move back to the north across the region as a warm front Sunday. A strong cold front will move across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build across the region from the west behind the front for early nest week. A weak backdoor cold front is slowly crossing Swrd into our Rgn from Ern QB.
An uptick in coverage however can be expected on Sunday as a weak inverted trough of low pressure moves west towards our coast. A few showers will remain possible overnight with some increase in coverage and intensity expected on Sunday as a weak inverted trough moves westward across the waters.
1017 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 IR imagery shows scattered clouds across the Middle and Upper Keys, and mostly clear conditions across the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the low 80s, and dew points range from 73 to 78. WV and MIMIC imagery reveal a cooler, drier airmass present across the top half of Florida, and a moist tropical airmass in place across the southern peninsula and Florida Keys. At the surface, an inverted trough north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will begin to tighten as a low pressure center forms and turns north, which will relax the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys, beginning Sunday evening.
Winds may continue overnight along the ridges so temperatures there were not lowered. Very dry air remains in place at the mid slopes and ridges as well.
As a cold front pushes southeast, winds will shift to the north and become quite blustery. high pressure will build into the region bringing a return to dry weather. Clearing skies tonight combined with decreasing winds will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the upper 20s across the eastern Panhandle and the low 30s elsewhere. Mostly sunny skies return on Sunday as well with high temperatures rising into the low 60s across the entire forecast area.
A cold front currently extends from northern Indiana through northern Missouri and into eastern Colorado. This cold front will approach the forecast area tonight with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front. The cold front will move through on Sunday with showers and some isolated thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s. The cold front will be south of the region by Sunday night with rain ending over southeast sections of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Cold front is still forecast to move across the area from north to south on Sunday and reach the coast late in the afternoon or early in the evening.
910 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure across the region will bring dry weather through Sunday.
834 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A cold front will push through the region later Sunday.
952 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Vfr skc and lgt winds across the area will continue as a cold front is movg swd across OK/ Sct/bkn line of convection along cdfnt entering se OK by around 15/09z. Patchy mvfr fog possible at kmlu and klfk and brief mvfr clouds possible prefrontal, however, most of the low clouds and precip will be along and just postfrontal. Thunderstorms beginning to develop along a cold front across central Oklahoma. Frontal passage to be too late to have much of an effect on overnight low temperatures but cold air advection should be sufficient to allow for high temperatures on Sunday to average in the upper 60s across portions of southeast Oklahoma and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
A 45kt LLJ will develop overnight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. A decaying line of convection will approach western portions of the CWA by daybreak ahead of the cold front. The cold front will slice through the CWA during the day tomorrow, and temperatures will fall considerably behind the front. For example, the 12z GFS has temperatures at SDF tomorrow around the mid 70s at 11am, but falling to the upper 50s by 5pm behind the cold front. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 40s.
1126 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A cold front will push through the region later Sunday.
627 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance The main forecast challenge for the short term is the passage of the strong cold front Sunday and its associated weather.
At upper levels, a trough stretched across the Canadian prairies to the western Dakotas, with its base over Wyoming and western Colorado. Tonight the upper level trough pushes eastward into Minnesota and Iowa by around midnight, replacing the southwest flow aloft over ND today with northwesterly flow tonight. The strongest winds will likely be in the higher elevations of southwestern ND and also along the Coteau east of the Missouri River. Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry, mild conditions to the forecast through much of the week, with daytime temperatures reaching the 60s.
The inverted trough feature moving up from the Gulf should push clouds into the area late tonight and maybe some rain into far southeast zones around mid morning. /07/ Sunday Night through Saturday: As the cold front moves through the forecast area Sunday night, surface pressure rises of around 5 mb per 6 hours are being indicated by forecast models.
Windy on Sunday with WNW winds 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph ushering in much cooler air.
19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central Rockies moving towards the NEB panhandle. At the surface, a trough axis extends from near SLN to MYZ and a cold front was located from HLC to HSI. Precip will come to an end shortly after the frontal passage as much dryer and cooler air advects southeast. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s. Continued cold air advection through Sunday is expected to keep highs in the lower 60s on Sunday.
702 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The low clouds will begin to break up today as high pressure moves off into the northern Atlantic and a southerly flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front. The cold front will push through later Sunday.
942 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 An area of low pressure will lift north along the coast tonight as high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic ridges into the region through Sunday.
This afternoon, an upper level ridge extends across the southeastern CONUS as a trough emerges into the northern Plains from the rockies. This will drag a cold front toward the southeast.
625 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Showers and thunderstorms were currently ongoing across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri in proximity to the cold front. This activity is expected to move south this evening as the cold front makes its way to the southeast and into the Ozark region late this afternoon into this evening. Some isolated hail to the size of quarters may also be possible with the strongest storms as the freezing level will be fairly low. Cool fall high pressure will be filtering into the region behind the cold front through the day Sunday. With cold high pressure over the region, overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s under clear skies. Sprawling high pressure will then linger over the eastern half of the country through the end of the week as upper level flow remains northwesterly.
The cold front should move through the terminals in the 12z-15z time period. The trough and low move out across the Plains on Sunday bringing a cold front across our area. Upper level dynamics pass well north of our area as an upper level ridge axis remains over our area making the front the only forcing mechanism. Then, moisture convergence weakens during the morning as slightly drier north winds bridge the front causing the line to break apart.
817 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England this evening as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the coast. This area of high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Sunday.
1004 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Ridge of high pressure across the area will remain in place providing dry weather through Sunday.
Much cooler weather will start the new week. Dry weather will persist through early Sunday as high pressure slides eastward. A strong trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged to drive a cold front across the area Sunday afternoon, with showers likely.
Upper ridge will build into the region through Sunday for mostly clear skies and light winds. After another cold start with below freezing temperatures Sunday morning, afternoon temperatures will warm into the 50s to lower 60s.
Rain will be triggered by a cold front that will cross the state.
1024 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A weak cold front will stall across the area tonight. This front will move back to the north across the region as a warm front Sunday. A strong cold front will move across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build across the region from the west behind the front for early nest week. A weak backdoor cold front is slowly crossing Swrd into our Rgn from Ern QB.
927 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A cold front currently stretches from Des Moines, Iowa to Wichita, Kansas. A cold front currently extends from northern Indiana through northern Missouri and into eastern Colorado. This cold front will approach the forecast area tonight with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front. The cold front will move through on Sunday with showers and some isolated thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s. The cold front will be south of the region by Sunday night with rain ending over southeast sections of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Cold front is still forecast to move across the area from north to south tomorrow and to reach the coast late in the afternoon or early in the evening.
A low pressure system will bring even colder temperatures to the area today, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Higher gusts around 20 KTS are also expected as a low pressure system approaches from the west and tightens the pressure gradient. A dryline / cold front will set up across the OK and TX panhandle region tomorrow, and will start to move slowly eastward across the plains, but its slow progress will prevent it from reaching into the forecast area during the short term forecast period.
An upper level trough currently along the California/Arizona border will move rapidly to the Southern high Plains today, then into the Central Plains tonight, and Northern Plains on Wednesday. As the upper level trough and a jet streak approach, the cap breaks allowing showers and thunderstorms to form along the dryline over Western Texas and over the Serranias del Burro of Mexico this afternoon into early evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to weaken as they move further east as the trough/jet move away allowing the capping inversion to restrengthen Wednesday morning.
Deep layer ridging will continue to strengthen over the Southeast through today. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 90s, remaining well above average.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be over the northern gulf coast today while an upper level trough with embedded short waves moves across the west half of the country. Today the weather will remain dry and warm with the ridge in control, however this ridge will shift east through tonight. The second in a series of short waves will move into the plains Wednesday while the ridge moves into the Atlantic.
Freezing level tonight at 15,200 feet and -20C level just above 24,000 feet. Winds very light in the lower levels with no winds exceeding 10 knots until the balloon reached 500 mb. /issued 334 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017/ High pressure ridge settled over the southeastern quadrant of the country will maintain rather warm and humid conditions for the next few days with little more than just a temperature forecast.
305 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky in the short term. Upper level ridging across the eastern United States will result in above normal temperatures for the latter part of the week and on into the weekend.
In the upper levels a ridge extends from the southern states to the Midwest. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Deep layer ridging will prevail across our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Under mostly clear skies and a strong ridge on Tuesday, our area should see its hottest temperatures so far this year with highs rising into the low-mid 90s. Inland high temperatures will remain hot, but perhaps a degree or two cooler than Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the sea breeze, coastal locations will see highs in the lower-mid 80s each day.
1210 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 While it's hot and more humid today, temperatures tomorrow will likely be several degrees cooler. This appears to be mainly due to cooler temperatures aloft, despite similar depth of mixing. Cross sections show what appears to be an elevated cold front and model QPF seems to be tied that feature.
605 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure through Wednesday with increasing temperatures. A high pressure system will provide dry weather and much warmer temperatures today. With the ground not fully dried out from previous rains, think the MAV MOS in the lowlands is too high. Will go more toward the cooler MET MOS. Upper ridge continues shifting east with a gradual transition to broad southwesterly flow aloft. Large upper closed low quickly ejects northeast across the Great Lakes before phasing with a large upper low across eastern Canada. A weak cold front will approach from the west, but persistent upper ridging across the southeastern states will limit southward progression of this feature. That said, model guidance becomes less consistent in handling the evolution of the ridge, so actual frontal placement and timing may vary.
The northern portion of an upper ridge of high pressure extending from central Mexico to southeast Canada will shift east to the eastern seaboard through tonight, while the southern portions remains fixed.
High pressure then builds in through the remainder of the week with temperatures rebounding back to above normal values late in the week and into the upcoming weekend. A mid/upper level low can be seen on IR satellite imagery this morning sliding down the British Columbia Coast with deeper moisture advecting into the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, the cooler air mass aloft and persistent northwest flow has resulted in expanding coverage of low clouds for areas mainly south of San Francisco. This system will also result in an increase in cloud cover today region-wide along with a reinforcing shot of cooler air from the north. Wednesday will be a transition day as the main mid/upper level trough that has brought unseasonably cool temperatures and breezy conditions to the region the past several days shifts inland.