Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is decent model agreement in a jet max/upper impulse diving down the backside of the upper trough resulting in a narrow band of light snow.
644 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Skies will clear this morning as high pressure settles in. A cold front will approach tonight and bring rain to much of the area with snow possible in the north. An upper ridge will be over the west coast providing northwest flow to Arkansas through Monday. Low pressure in the Rockies today will bring a cold front through Arkansas on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the 30s and highs on Monday will be a bit warmer in the around 50 to the mid 60s.
Short term models continue to trend warmer with system moving into central plains on Sunday, which should keep precipitation type mainly liquid during daylight hours.
Temperatures on Sunday do warm up some as low/mid level waa ramps up with this low pressure system moving through.
As for the stratus, with the precipitation that fell today providing some boundary layer moisture and current dewpoint depressions in the 2-5 degree range, I would think the low level southwest flow should help provide some stratus/low clouds, so I indicate it expands through the night across the north and eastern Columbia Basin.
While significantly cooler air has already overtaken the region this morning, the majority of the atmosphere remains moisture laden.
331 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Concern for short term is snow tonight and Monday with lake enhanced snowfall at the head of the lake Current surface analysis indicates cloudy skies along the north with clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere as the ridge dominates the weather early this morning. The low level flow will remain north to northeast with 850MB temperatures over Lake Superior around -20C Monday night.
Surface temperatures were above freezing over most of northeastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota with much colder temperatures in the teens and 20s above zero over the rest of the forecast area. Model sounding area showing a mid level band of warm air aloft advecting northward ahead of the low pressure system so there may be some localized freezing rain over parts of western South Dakota early this morning. The surface warm front will push northward this morning before dropping back southward this afternoon on the back side of the departing low.
311 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure with arctic air today.
There are also some mid and high level clouds moving in from the west and obscuring the lower clouds. There will definitely be the higher level clouds, but the stratus will also spread across much of the forecast area. By afternoon, an upper level wave moves into the area and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Aloft: Global models and ensemble means are in good agreement on longwave trofs over the NE Pac and the Ern USA. with the ridge over the Rockies. This high will gradually sink into the MS Vly Tue and drift into the Ern USA as the week progresses. with a warm front developing down here on the Plns.
1259 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure will bring one more cold, dry day today. Low pressure is forecast to bring rain and snow Monday, changing to all snow Monday night.
Cold front will approach northwest Oklahoma around 06Z and spread over terminals by end of forecast period.
647 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure will bring one more cold, dry day today. Low pressure is forecast to bring rain and snow Monday, changing to all snow Monday night.
This combined with warmer surface temps, lows in the low to mid 30s tonight, will see a mixed bag of precipitation from rain to sleet to snow and possibly some light freezing rain. Given the still warm ground temps and air temps hovering around the freezing mark, do not believe ice accumulating on the ground will be much of an issue.
Another reinforcing front will make its way into the region late Monday as Canadian high pressure migrates south and eastward. Onshore flow should resume by midweek as the high moves far enough to the east, but rain chances will be limited (at least until late in the week) as it'll take a while for the atmosphere to modify. As high pressure builds into the region later tonight, conditions will be improving as winds/seas decrease. A sec- ond reinforcing cold front on Mon could raise SCEC flags briefly by Mon afternoon. 41 With the cold front moving offshore this morning, we should also see the end of the bulk of the rains. Otherwise, not seeing a lot of clearing in the wake of the cold front for today.
Winds have become light in the north, however freezing fog has developed with 1/4 mile visibility at HRO. High pressure will continue to build into the area and clearing should begin by afternoon. (ISSUED 529 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 ) Low pressure moving along the gulf coast at this time will keep east to northeast winds across the terminals through the night.
1256 AM EST Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure and a cold, dry airmass will remain over the region tonight through Sunday. Low pressure is forecast to bring snow and rain Monday, changing to all snow Monday night.
Temperatures across the area were in the lower to mid 40s and will likely be steady for the next few hours.
354 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure approaches from the west today and settles over the area Monday.
A cold front will move through all TAF sites starting at KDHT/KGUY around 05-06Z and KAMA by 08-09Z. A cold front will be sent southward across the panhandles late this afternoon and this evening in response to the passing short wave to our north. There may be just enough moisture in the far northeast CWA to help with some shower formation as the cold front moves across this area, but any rainfall should remain very light. Southwest winds will be around 20 mph with higher gusts, but winds will be shifting to the north behind a cold front late in the afternoon and early evening.
535 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 850 mb cold front movg south across area, with back edge of showers following suit and will be completely out of the area by mid morning. Fast movg upper trough will begin to amplify, with lgt rain at base of trof digging into portions of area mainly along and north of I-20, mainly after midnight tonight thru mid mrng Monday. Temps to remain unseasonally cool with overnight lows into the 30s for much of the area thru Wed night, with additional weak backdoor cold front providing additional cool reinforcement.
Upper ridge building into the northern Rockies will begin to spread warmer air across the divide on Monday.
Latest satellite shows short wave trough moving across northern Utah and this feature will reach the northern mountains by mid morning. Winds will increase in earnest after the trough passage, first along the Front Range Foothills toward 10 AM, then spreading quickly across the plains through the noon hour as subsidence builds into the forecast area behind trough axis. A warm upper level ridge will be building over the desert southwest today and Monday, bringing Colorado under increasingly warmer and drier northwest flow aloft.
411 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure will bring one more cold, dry day today. Low pressure is forecast to bring rain and snow Monday, changing to all snow Monday night.
As a cold front moves, from north to south, overnight, stratus will develop behind the front and produce MVFR to IFR ceilings. /issued 356 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Cold front has already entered our northern counties and should reach the Abilene area by 5 pm or so. expect the cold front to continue to push southward, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing along the front as it moves into a slightly more unstable airmass. Will see cooler highs tomorrow, generally in the 50s.
Low pressure will be sliding southeast from the Northern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday night. As the low slides just north of the PAH forecast area Monday, precipitation will spread east across our area, becoming all rain from south to north by midday. No snow accumulations are expected with temperatures warming to well above freezing by late morning. Rain chances will decrease from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the low moves off to our northeast.
Utilizing the GOES-16 layered WV imagery, at the lowest level, we can already see dry air making it's way into NW AL Good news and bad news, depending on how you feel, with an upper jet to our south and moving east, slightly warmer temps will be able to advect in from the south. Thanks to the mid level warming aloft and the clouds increasing, lows tonight will be "warmer," in the mid to upper 30s.
High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to the region with periods of high clouds and locally breezy conditions at times.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Cold front still on schedule to arrive from the north this morning. Surface winds have veered to NE behind a pre-frontal coastal trough (as is often the case). It should be into the Northern Ranchlands by 15Z and the Lower/Mid Rio Grande Valley around mid-day. With the slower timing of the thermal gradient's arrival, the populated RGV should be able to reach the lower 70s F today. Overnight, light NW flow aloft becomes established ahead of an upstream ridge. Surface ridging builds in as well, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. Drier air aloft continues to work into the region for Monday, courtesy of the aforementioned upper ridge.
Scattered showers developing ahead of the approaching cold front this morning as PWATs range from 1. Rain chances will drop greatly with the fropa with much drier and cooler conditions expected by the afternoon. Temperatures should show a continued falling trend through mid morning with slight rises in the afternoon reaching only into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures are expected to cool into the lower 50s across much of the inland locations, with upper 50s along the immediate coast.
These southerly winds will continue into the early afternoon hours then start to shift to the northeast as a cold front slides into western Kansas. As for temperatures, lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20s with highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 50s across central and south central Kansas to around 70 degrees along the KS/CO border.
Cloud cover will thin during late afternoon and early evening, but the return of our next cold front overnight between 13/09Z to 13/13Z will return MVFR flight categories with some possible showers. Winds will be shifting to the Northwest with the Monday morning cold front. /issued 535 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ 850 mb cold front movg south across area, with back edge of showers following suit and will be completely out of the area by mid morning. Fast movg upper trough will begin to amplify, with lgt rain at base of trof digging into portions of area mainly along and north of I-20, mainly after midnight tonight thru mid mrng Monday. Temps to remain unseasonally cool with overnight lows into the 30s for much of the area thru Wed night, with additional weak backdoor cold front providing additional cool reinforcement.
temperatures are expected to drop into the upper teens and low 20s across the area, with the warmer temps under the cloud cover. Much of the guidance indicated warmer temps during the day tomorrow and with some mixing possible due to the southwesterly winds, did increase temps across the area. With warmer temperatures, expect rain to be the dominant precipitation type. There are numerous little waves moving around the main upper trough over the Northeast through the majority of the week.
Some stronger storms well offshore as well, though there was a broad area of convergence along a developing trough providing a bit more lift out there.
Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show a clear trend of increasing amplitude in the high pressure ridge building into the West Coast from 130W longitude this morning.
1040 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Late morning sfc analysis shows inverted trough offshore the NE FL coast with a trailing weak cool front across north FL and the northern Gulf. Morning Cape sounding shows residual dry air in the lower levels but this will be modifying thru the day in the southerly flow within the warm sector. Cloudy skies will continue, with temperatures falling into the low 60s over much of east central Florida.
434 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Temperatures across the region have been steady or even slowly rising as warm air advects into the region ahead of the low pressure system. This system exits quickly Monday morning and high pressure builds in.
1153 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 The Freeze Warning for this morning has been cancelled, and current temperatures are running in the low to mid 30s. The forecast remains on track, with lows expected to fall slightly below freezing tonight.
654 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure with arctic air today.
Temperatures where in the mid to upper 70s, with the exception of the islands that have received rainfall, where temperatures dropped to the low 70s. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1881, the high temperature in Key West was 86 degrees.
331 AM PDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show a clear trend of increasing amplitude in the high pressure ridge building into the West Coast from 130W longitude this morning.
1226 AM EST Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure with arctic air into Sunday.
/06Z TAFs/ Intermittent showers and patchy drizzle will impact area TAFS through around daybreak, but the arrival of the front between 06z and 09z should clear out most of the reduced vsbys and the cigs below 600 ft save for some the higher terrain areas. Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front to the east of the Hill Country and a cold front to the north. Later tonight into the overnight hours, these two system are likely to become one system (weak cold front) as it pushes across the area.
Meanwhile, the gradient tightens with the passage of the short- wave which will result in breezy conditions in the lower elevations and blowing snow in the mountain areas mentioned previously. As alluded to earlier, afternoon highs will be cooler, especially across the north where advection of colder air will be most pronounced. Morning lows will be a bit cooler, but not by much. A ridge builds over the western states on Monday bringing warmer air to the region, dry conditions, and fewer clouds. High amplitude ridging will continue building over the forecast area early in the coming week as the area of high pressure remains centered over southern California. This ridging will persist for several days; through at least midweek.
341 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure with arctic air today.
The passage of a cold front (which currently appears to lie between AUS and SAT) is still anticipated to occur a few hours before sunrise Sunday morning, bringing a brief opportunity for precipitation. VFR is expected tonight until the passage of a cold front a few hours prior to sunrise Sunday morning, which will bring lower cloud decks and the opportunity for rainfall at that time. After sunset, precip chances for the Lower RGV will be reduced even more. Although lingering chances will be possible across the Northern Ranchlands and Northern Coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Even so, with moisture values still high in the lower levels, showers and maybe isolated rumble of thunder will be possible. High temperatures will be noticeably lower as breezy north winds usher in a cooler and drier airmass.
55 Skies will clear this morning as high pressure settles in. A cold front will approach tonight and bring rain to much of the area with snow possible in the north. An upper ridge will be over the west coast providing northwest flow to Arkansas through Monday. Low pressure in the Rockies today will bring a cold front through Arkansas on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the 30s and highs on Monday will be a bit warmer in the around 50 to the mid 60s.
The 850mb trough is sweeping out the moisture in far Northern McCurtain Co. The clouds on the other hand will hand tough for the overnight and thus keep us a bit warmer than daybreak dew points, as they continue to fall in the driving NE wind.
644 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Latest surface analysis shows sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from northern Canada into the Mississippi River Valley. Low pressure currently over Montana will track southeastward tonight, reaching southeast Iowa by 12z Monday. Low pressure will track from southeast Iowa early Monday morning to west-central Indiana by Monday evening. Once the low passes to the east, a trailing trough axis will keep light snow chances alive into Monday evening.
A 5 kft VFR cig returns to KCHA by Monday morning in advance of next low pressure system expected beyond the end of the TAF period.
Tight pressure gradient between southward building high and low pressure over the NW Gulf yielding breezy conditions along the coast and over the coastal waters, with gusts generally in the 30-35KT range. While significantly cooler air has already overtaken the region this morning, the majority of the atmosphere remains moisture laden.
Temperatures this morning are running slightly cooler over the north and warmer in the southern part of the valley. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70s for the valley with a few of the warmer spots topping out in the lower 80s. High pressure ridging will continue to bring well above normal temperature through early this week, though record breaking highs are not expected. In the Valley highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected, with a few spots reaching the lower 80s.
/issued 932 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017/ A ridge of cold high pressure continues to build into the southern Plains this evening.
Ahead of this wave, lee troughing will allow for gusty southerly winds during the day Sunday. Strong dynamics but meager moisture return will result in scattered light rain showers as the upper trough and cold front move through Sunday night.
The cold front early this morning was located roughly along the I-10 corridor. Cooler today with breezy conditions through the morning hours. Warmer monday, especially western areas where some clearing occurs. A weak reinforcing surge of high pressure looks to move into the area Monday afternoon and night.
High pressure will dominate the forecast through the first part of the week. High clouds spilling over the ridge today should keep areas of freezing fog from developing this morning in the colder Sierra valleys. Also, temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday, but still well above normal for this time of year.
Upper level ridge is building off the West Coast this morning, with high clouds streaming in from the northwest. The ridge axis is forecast to move inland later this afternoon.
Skies will become mostly clear overnight across the Central High Plains region in the wake of the upper trough sweeping into the plains states today. The upper pattern amplifies as another short wave trough tops the upper ridge in place over the western U. With temperatures remaining above freezing through the late afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of light rain stretching across the northern into the eastern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon and evening. A cold front is expected to move over the region Sunday night, which will drop temperatures into the 40s and 50s on Monday.
high pressure with temperatures several degrees below normal and mostly clear skies will be present through the evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 33 48 38 / 10 10 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 30 46 35 / 10 10 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 51 31 46 36 / 10 0 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 22 47 33 / 10 10 70 80 NC.
For tonight decreasing cloudiness with lows in the low to mid 20s. Forecast area under fast northwest flow aloft in between upper high over southern California and low pressure over the Great Lakes.
Cold front making progress southward, about to reach the coast. Essentially no changes to the precip forecast, keeping ~90% for most of the area the next 6 hours, diminishing from NW to SE as the surface wave moves east and cooler/drier air filters from the north. Winds will also increase and become gusty as low pressure moves through the gulf.
A strong inversion remains in place, and this morning's cold frontal passage will likely not provide enough cold air aloft to eliminate the inversion from above. Around 06Z/Mon, this surface front should begin moving NE'ward as a warm front ahead of a weather disturbance aloft approaching from the Pac NW. In addition, precipitation will taper-off for most by this afternoon as a stabilizing high pressure ridge aloft builds-in from the Pac NW. Freezing drizzle may mix with the snow north of the surface front, but any ice accumulations should be no more than a trace.
346 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Convection associated with an upper short wave trough and surface front is ending this morning, with a few reports of large hail and strong winds having been received yesterday evening. ridge will send another cold front into the area tomorrow, but temperatures will actually be warmer behind this front due to mostly clear skies allowing for much more insolation than will be seen today.
311 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Temperatures this morning range from the mid 20s across north central KY to the lower 30s across south central KY. As clouds continue to clear, we still are on track for lows to bottom out in the lower to mid 20s across the region. For the remainder of today, high pressure will build in from the northwest bringing mostly clear skies. Despite light northerly winds, with plenty of sunshine we should warm into the lower to mid 40s today. Temperatures tonight do look to drop below freezing, but for a shorter length of time than this morning and only into the upper 20s to around 30.
With temperatures below freezing there may be some slick spots. This track should keep temperatures less favorable for snow until the associated cold front passes through and cools the atmosphere down. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected in the wake of this system. The eastern half of the CONUS will stay in cyclonic curvature as the trough deepens over the east. This will allow for cold Canadian high pressure to influence the area, keeping temperatures on the cool side of normal. It's not until later in the week, as the eastern trough shifts further east, and upper level ridging spreads into the middle of the country, that we'll see temperatures back into the 50s and 60s.
Temperatures across the region have been steady or even slowly rising as warm air advects into the region ahead of the low pressure system. This system exits quickly Monday morning and high pressure builds in.
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The upper level short wave trough that brought flurries to parts of central Missouri today will move east of the area this evening. Another short wave trough will then drop southeast across the region on Friday. High temperatures should therefore be a bit warmer with most areas getting into the upper 30s or lower 40s. As multiple short wave troughs pass through the area, there will be a chance for flurries/sprinkles.
1002 PM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Rockies. An upper level ridge over the western US will gradually shift east into the plains this weekend.
Upper level ridge along the West Coast will keep north-northwest flow aloft over Montana through late Friday afternoon with one or two weak disturbances expected to move over the state. Upper ridging is beginning to exert its influence upon the region, with warmer and drier air dropping south into the region. Temperatures will continue to steadily warm as the combination of drier air aloft and stronger southwest downslope winds will allow for temperatures to reach well into the 30s Friday and then reach the lower 40s by Friday. The primary exception will be over sheltered valleys of SW MT where strong inversions will keep temperatures much cooler.