Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High clouds moving into the area has limited radiational cooling over the past couple of hours with most locations remaining in the low 40s and a few locations in the upper 30s. High pressure will remain in control of the region today and tonight with high clouds from the Gulf continuing to drift over the area. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 70s with low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s.
625 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A surface cold front now over central Missouri and southeast Kansas will move south through the area during the morning hours. Skies will clear behind the front and a cooler air mass will move in this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The center of the high will remain north of the area, but clear skies and lighter winds will occur with the cooler air mass. With the center of the high not being directly over the area, winds may not go completely calm but they will be on the light side.
The ridge of high pressure begins to break down on Monday causing the upper level flow to become more southwesterly. This breakdown of the ridge will transition to a moist westerly flow through the remainder of the week. The models are trending to a warmer and drier period for the weekend, but confidence in this solution is low at the moment.
436 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A late freeze has taken hold across our forecast area early this morning with many sites including our office now reporting temperatures at or below freezing. Expect clouds will increase from southwest to northeast through the night and may be enough to prevent a 2nd night of freezing temperatures in many areas. However, the wind will be light and should we clear out even briefly for a couple of hours it would likely be enough to send temperatures below freezing again. Widespread cloud cover with light rain will probably keep us above freezing, but still pretty cold with lows in the mid 30s.
721 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 High pressure and dry weather will give way to shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening as an upper disturbance and reinforcing cold front cross the region. Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather by weeks end. With the advance of the very cold (-27 C at 500mb) mid level trough, lapse rates will steepen with resulting destabilization supporting an increase in thunder potential as evening approaches. With forcing for ascent via DPVA in advance of that cold core, showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely as the surface cold front encroaches late this afternoon and crosses this evening. That threat will end with cold front passage this evening. Brief visibility restrictions will be possible in rain in the heavier showers, and then ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR levels tonight behind a cold front.
646 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Quiet near-term conditions are expected across the region as high pressure builds south out of Canada. Frost will gradually decrease after sunrise and temperatures begin to warm above freezing. A few isolated locations in southwest Nebraska may see a high in the low 60s, but this will be few and far between. In addition to cooler temperatures, gusty southeast winds up to 20 to 30 mph as well as increasing clouds, are expected during the afternoon in advance of the next system.
Much cooler weather along with precipitation chances return for this week. Onshore flow returned to Northern California late in the day yesterday as an upper level trough approaches the West Coast. Temperatures across much of interior NorCal late last night were around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than the night before, especially in the Delta influenced areas. A cooling trend begins today as the trough continues to move closer to the coast.
819 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Cooler temperatures begin settle into the region, with highs only rising into the upper 40s to near 60 today.
623 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 *Frost headlines will continue for a couple more hours this morning across central KS where temperature have fallen into the mid to upper 30s* High pressure will settle overhead today with lingering cloud cover that will make for a cool Mother's Day across the region.
A few clouds may develop just ahead of the cold front late this afternoon. Expect highs in the m-u60s atop the higher Plateaus and l70s in valley locations. An upper-trough will swing from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a dry cold front into the Tennessee Valley by 12z Monday.
730 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening as cold front advances; a few storms may be strong. With the advance of the very cold (-27 C at 500mb) mid level trough, lapse rates will steepen with resulting destabilization supporting an increase in thunder potential as evening approaches. With forcing for ascent via DPVA in advance of that cold core, showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely as the surface cold front encroaches late this afternoon and crosses this evening. That threat will end with cold front passage this evening. Brief visibility restrictions will be possible in rain in the heavier showers, and then ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR levels tonight behind a cold front.
After a cool May morning where temperatures dropped to near record lows for May 10th at sites around the region, the dry airmass over the ArkLaMiss has begun to quickly warm with temperatures already close to 20 degrees warmer than they were 4 hours ago.
Quiet near-term conditions are expected across the region as high pressure builds south out of Canada. Frost will gradually decrease after sunrise and temperatures begin to warm above freezing. A few isolated locations in southwest Nebraska may see a high in the low 60s, but this will be few and far between. In addition to cooler temperatures, gusty southeast winds up to 20 to 30 mph as well as increasing clouds, are expected during the afternoon in advance of the next system.
911 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A fast moving cold front will cross the region today, resulting in winds becoming very gusty westerly winds. A cold front will slide through the area today with isolated to scattered showers pushing east early. Given how dry the lower layers of the atmosphere are right now, the precip amounts will be quite light. Combined with the mid level trough also rotating through the area, additional isolated to scattered showers will return for the late afternoon and evening hours.
332 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning for early morning low temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 30s.
200 PM PDT Sun May 10 2020 Isolated thunderstorms over the high deserts will end by sunset. Much cooler and more seasonal weather will continue to develop over southern California this week as the ridge aloft is replaced with a persistent trough.
258 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Low pressure crossing region tonight into Monday will bring rain showers into tonight, then rain and snow on Monday. Warm frontal rain showers moving through the North Country this afternoon. Cold front enters western New york around midnight per latest HRRR/HREF guidance with cold air advection allowing for a mix with snow toward daybreak Monday over the higher terrain. A cold night is expected with sub-freezing temperatures expected everywhere inland of the immediate lakeshores.
Current Radar and satellite data continues to show widespread shower and thunderstorm activity mainly over the higher terrain of Northern Arizona.
229 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 High pressure will slide offshore tonight. A cold front will push through the area Monday morning.
The mid to upper level ridge will move across Southeast Texas during the day, which will continue to result in benign weather conditions.
Clearing tonight as the gradient relaxes and high pressure builds in. Monday should be a mainly quiet weather day as high pressure continues to build in.
The stalled front over the local area is washing out as a weak low pressure center has formed in the Yucatan Channel this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already developed to our west over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains this afternoon, but these storms are not expected to make any significant progress into our forecast area tonight. Otherwise, we will see another warming of overnight lows, ranging from the low 50s to around 60 degrees.
1104 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A cold front has made its way across the majority of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning and is current across extreme southeast Oklahoma and will exit the area over the next hour or so. Temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees below normal across a great deal of the area this afternoon behind the cold front and with mid-high level clouds streaming overhead.
307 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Near Freezing Temperatures Tonight - Dry stretch Mon into most of Wed - Risk for storms starting Wed Night - Near Freezing Temperatures Tonight Colder air will filter in from the north on the backside of the departing storm this evening. With skies gradually scattering out it looks like many areas will fall into the low 30s with some upper 20s in the Upper Muskegon Basin. Also the potential to hover at the lowest temperatures for 3 hours or longer may be limited by the narrow window of time between when we do scatter out and sunrise.
Tonight will be a tad warmer and muggier than last night. Monday will be a tad warmer and more humid as well. As the upper wave exits to the east-northeast Monday night, weak ridging aloft will take it's place, reducing rain chances to a slight chance. However, a capping inversion will keep the chances on the low end.
A surface cold front now over central Missouri and southeast Kansas will move south through the area during the morning hours. Skies will clear behind the front and a cooler air mass will move in this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The center of the high will remain north of the area, but clear skies and lighter winds will occur with the cooler air mass. With the center of the high not being directly over the area, winds may not go completely calm but they will be on the light side.
Overnight low temperatures will range between the mid 50s for southeast Georgia and up into the upper 50s for northeast Florida and in the lower 60s along the coastlines.
Upper ridge centered over the region this morning continues to move east.
1130 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Aviation Section Updated Cooler temperatures begin settle into the region, with highs only rising into the upper 40s to near 60 today.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the area from the Canadian High Plains on Monday and Monday night. This dry air will help produce some chilly nights, with overnight lows both tonight and Monday night radiating into the low to mid 20s, with a few teens in our local cold spots.
(This evening through Monday) The cold front continues to move southeast with northeast/east winds expected at the surface overnight and into Monday. Low levels are not as humid as can be seen in the forecast sounds as well as currently seeing the lower 30s dewpoints moving into northern Oklahoma behind the front.
High pressure aloft centered over the eastern Great Basin will move across Utah today. Somewhat cooler weather with a chance of showers will arrive midweek. Morning objective analysis shows a mid level ridge axis extending from the Desert Southwest northward through the eastern Great Basin. Low level southwesterly flow has overspread much of eastern Nevada/western Utah, allowing a thermal ridge to nose across the eastern Great Basin.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ A weak cold front will move through the region this afternoon into the evening hours. High pressure will build southward into the region in wake of the front and northerly surface winds will help to reinforce the dry airmass in place. However, not expecting much in the way of cooler air behind this front either, so expecting slightly warmer temps tonight with overnight lows in the lower 50s. Dry conditions will remain on Monday with slightly cooler temps across our northern zones, but highs should still rise into the 70s across the region, with near 80 degree temps across our Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana zones.
A few cumulus clouds are possible this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across airports.
These winds will diminish this evening as the low lifts east and the ridge moves into the western Missouri by early tomorrow morning. Also expect the low clouds over the area to dissipate/move out of the Missouri and Illinois with the loss of daytime heating. Unlike the other morning, the ridge will stay to the west of the area so the winds may not go calm keeping frost formation only in low lying and sheltered area. Have issued a frost advisory for all but the far eastern counties (where it is slightly warmer) given that much of the CWA has already seen significant growth.
206 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A cold front is making its way south over west central AR and southeast OK this afternoon. Cooler air behind this cold front, combined with increasing clouds and rain chances beginning late tonight into Monday, will likely yield record low max temps for a few locations across NE OK and NW AR for tomorrow.
As mentioned in the previous AFD, temperatures along the outer coast will be several degrees cooler this afternoon as flow transitions to onshore. A thermal trough will remain situated along the Washington coast today, allowing for offshore flow to continue across area waters. Onshore flow will increase Monday as an upper trough nears the area.
157 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Another beautiful day across the mid state with sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for the Plateau to around 70 for Nashville and along the river. There could still be a few showers along the TN/KY state line and across the Plateau later this afternoon as the atmosphere tries to ring out some moisture as a trof moves by. Weak high pressure tomorrow with northwest winds. so temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
152 PM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Water vapor shows continued perturbed northwest flow through the northern plains with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, ridge continues to build from Canada into the northern plains.
/issued 354 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb troffing over the TX coastline and the western Gulf of Mexico will move east away from TX. This will allow 500 mb ridging to build back over the RGV steadily throughout today and Mon. Surface ridging spreading SE across the central and eastern U. This will also increase the low level moisture return across the RGV.
Very dry air will once again move into the area over the next 24 hours behind a cold front.
338 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 A weak, dry cold front will move through early Monday morning, followed by high pressure into the weekend. Skies will quickly clear this evening as high clouds shift offshore and diurnally-driven cumulus dissipate, although can't rule out a few more clouds late as a weak cold front pushes into the area late. Continued to favor the cooler side of model guidance given recent trends with lows likely ranging from near 50 inland to near 60 around the coast, probably coldest in the Francis Marion National Forest.
1240 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A late freeze has taken hold across our forecast area early this morning with many sites including our office now reporting temperatures at or below freezing. Expect clouds will increase from southwest to northeast through the night and may be enough to prevent a 2nd night of freezing temperatures in many areas. However, the wind will be light and should we clear out even briefly for a couple of hours it would likely be enough to send temperatures below freezing again. Widespread cloud cover with light rain will probably keep us above freezing, but still pretty cold with lows in the mid 30s.
Temperatures are in the lower to upper 70s and we should see temps rise another several degrees before daily highs are met. Highs tomorrow will top out in the lower to middle 80s for much of the area. Will go a bit higher than the blended PoPs as more weight is given to the high-res suite.
Some resurgence of high pressure re-enforces the dry air but with some air mass modification heading into Monday afternoon to possibly limit the diurnal drying to the 30-40% range.
A weak cold front will move south across the region this afternoon into the evening hours resulting in northerly surface winds, but speeds will remain less than 10 kts. A cold front will move into the northern sections of our forecast area in the next couple of hours and will continue to push through the region the remainder of the day. Not expecting much in the way of cooler air behind this front either, so afternoon temperatures should be about 5 to 7 degrees warmer in most places today, except north of Interstate 30, where the cold front will arrive a little earlier this afternoon.
1253 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 *Frost headlines will continue for a couple more hours this morning across central KS where temperature have fallen into the mid to upper 30s* High pressure will settle overhead today with lingering cloud cover that will make for a cool Mother's Day across the region.
/Issued 1104 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ A cold front has made its way across the majority of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning and is current across extreme southeast Oklahoma and will exit the area over the next hour or so. Temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees below normal across a great deal of the area this afternoon behind the cold front and with mid-high level clouds streaming overhead.
Bumped the entire area at least 2 degrees warmer and a few locations 3-4 degrees warmer where the lower humidity air will likely be better entrenched.
The current 500 mb ridge that extends from NV/OR/WA up into the Yukon territory will be breaking down.
Along and south of the I-10 corridor relative humidity is a little higher, mainly in the low/mid 30 to low 40 percent range. Expect another mostly sunny day on Monday, with high temperatures mainly in the low/mid 70s north of Highway 84 and mid to upper 70s to the south of Highway 84.
Doing an update this morning to put in mention of thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening, mainly over the higher terrain of eastern Oregon and far southcentral Idaho. Latest guidance indicates high-based convection, capable of producing wind gusts to 45 mph, is possible across an area including the higher terrain of Baker County, much of Harney and Malheur counties, and Owyhee County into southern Twin Falls County.
1039 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A fast moving cold front will cross the region today, resulting in winds becoming very gusty westerly winds. A cold front will slide through the area today with isolated to scattered showers pushing east early. Given how dry the lower layers of the atmosphere are right now, the precip amounts will be quite light. Combined with the mid level trough also rotating through the area, additional isolated to scattered showers will return for the late afternoon and evening hours.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): 500mb ridging continues to build in across the Southern Plains with northwest flow across Deep South Texas providing plenty of dry air and subsidence above 850mb and through the atmospheric column. Near the surface, weak offshore troughing continues with just enough moisture between 850 and 700mb for a few isolated showers this afternoon.
346 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Current satellite imagery shows a few clouds moving into eastern Arkansas as a weak cold front pushes through the area.
Water vapor imagery highlights a potent trough complex over the central Gulf of Mexico. We wonder if this earlier convection over the Caribbean lessened the effects of jet dynamics across the Keys, but now with it gone, indirect circulations can resume? Other than the modified continental SFC parcels, plenty of ingredients are available for convection to flourish across the Keys, at least for the next six hours or so, as a warm frontal boundary sharpens along the Keys. The upper level trough axis will push east through our longitude on Monday.
128 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A cold front was now entering southeast MO and northwest AR. On Monday, with the cold advection behind the front and clouds increasing, afternoon highs will be held in the l-m60s for valleys and u50-a60 atop the higher plateau areas.
155 PM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Water vapor shows continued perturbed northwest flow through the northern plains with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, ridge continues to build from Canada into the northern plains.
We'll see clouds stick around into the evening, but subsidence and increased low level ridging should work to scour them out as the night progresses. Near and below freezing temperatures look like a good bet overnight, so kept the Freeze Warning up for areas where sufficient green-up has occurred. Monday night will bring another night of sub-freezing temperatures to most of the area, with another Freeze Warning looking all but certain for the same areas. Guidance continues to show the large scale mid/upper flow de- amplifying across the CONUS by midweek, with an upper trough approaching the west coast by week's end.
There is an upper level trough to the northwest moving out of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front associated with this trough extends from near Chicago to the south to near St. Highs today will still be below normal but warmer than yesterday with temperatures rising into the 60s. A cold front will approach the area this evening with a narrow line of light showers. Across our far northeastern areas across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, there may be some slight chance PoPs late Sunday and Sunday night as the surface cold front moves across the area, but overall, most locations should remain dry and mostly clear. With longwave troughing remaining across the Eastern CONUS, temperatures remain about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
1000 AM PDT Sun May 10 2020 Much cooler and more seasonal weather will develop over southern California this week as the ridge aloft is replaced with a persistent trough.
The global models appear to strengthen the southwesterly lower tropospheric winds by 18Z, dragging the reinvigorated warm frontal boundary to the north, to very near the island chain. Weak low pressure areas rippling east along the stalled front will cause widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, with some thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
315 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Moisture channel satellite imagery shows upper low low/vort max has now rotated to vicinity of Chicago area, with weak troughs rotating around it. The enhanced shower development alos appears to be ahead of second trough, that extends to the west into northern IA from the upper low.
1057 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning for early morning low temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 30s.
Clouds and cooler than average temperatures will be the main story with afternoon highs in the 50s.
1150 AM MDT Sun May 10 2020 A cooler air mass remains in place for all of Sunday, in response to northwesterly flow aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface. This cooler airmass will bring quite a bit of cloudiness to the region Monday along with a chance of showers.
1242 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A fast moving cold front will cross the region today, resulting in winds becoming very gusty westerly winds. A cold front will slide through the area today with isolated to scattered showers pushing east early. Given how dry the lower layers of the atmosphere are right now, the precip amounts will be quite light. Combined with the mid level trough also rotating through the area, additional isolated to scattered showers will return for the late afternoon and evening hours.