Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1103 AM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Current surface map places trof/dry line across western South Dakota, with washed out outflow boundary across northwest South Dakota. Upper level trof is digging into the Pacific Northwest with ridge breaking down over the plains. pulling cold front into western South Dakota. Timing/placement of cold front will have big impact on highs Wednesday afternoon with >25F spread across the forecast area.
That said, there will be an uptick in moisture each day in the low levels which will build instability.
240 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The main forecast challenges are the high level smoke, high temperatures, very low precipitation chances, and persistent fire weather concerns. However, the high resolution models (that consistently show these low chances) have been way overestimating high temperatures, and mid level temperatures remain quite mild.
(This evening through Wednesday) Slow moving showers and storms are ongoing over much of southern and central Oklahoma and north Texas, supported by an upper level trough extending southwest from the Great Lakes into Oklahoma and north Texas. HREF keeps this activity going through mid afternoon, followed by a brief lull late this evening, before redeveloping convection (a bit farther south as the upper trough slowly moves off) before sunrise.
255 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 High pressure was situated over the Great Lakes into the Mississippi Valley with seasonal temps in the low to mid 80s across the area. Clear and comfortable night ahead with temps in the low to mid 60s.
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Difficult flying conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours for at least a portion of our airspace as a pesky upper level trough will allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the TAF period. Our northwest most terminal locations may have to deal with in and out nocturnal convection through much of the night as well as the first half of Wednesday given the positioning of the upper trough.
Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. A high pressure ridge axis is currently positioned over northern Arizona. Storms are expected to initiate mainly over the high terrain during the first half of the afternoon, before increasing in coverage later in the afternoon and evening particularly south and west of Flagstaff. Wednesday heights begin to fall as a longwave trough begins to dig into the western United States.
Upper level trough continues to move over the Pacific Northwest and will dive down over the Rockies tomorrow. Currently weak high pressure over the central CONUS along with the approaching trough will provide warm southwest flow and mostly dry conditions.
158 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The active weather pattern continues, with the forecast aresa remaining under the influence of a broad, positive-tilt trof stretching from the Great Lakes into west TX.
Overnight temperatures remained quite warm, as winds remained high enough to the lower levels well mixed. Across the region, a few locations fell into the upper 60s, however, most locales remained in the lower 70s. Another hot day is in store across the area as H5 ridging continues to influence afternoon high temperatures. This will be out ahead of a rather potent H5 trough that will bring precipitation chances to the area later in the week.
230 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Hot and dry conditions will continue for the next few hours before a cold front moves through the area. Strong north winds are expected with this cold front and these winds will continue through the overnight hours. Behind the cold front the smoke will largely clear and much cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week.
A cold front will move through this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the 70s and 80s.
218 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A trough stalled across the western U. keeps the forecast area on the western periphery of high pressure at the surface. As the week goes on, the trough gradually pushes east causing moisture and temperature advection to increase and muggier conditions to return.
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The latest ensemble means indicate a relatively stable late summer pattern across North America with a trough over the western conus and above normal heights stretching from the Great Lakes to eastern Canada.
The better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will largely remain relegated northwest of the CWA tomorrow in association with a midlevel trough dipping southeastward which will affect our area beyond the end of the short term.
An upper level will continue to influence the region through Wednesday as an upper trough drops into the northwestern U. Highs will be similar to highs today, to range in the low to mid 90s, with upper 90s parts of the west and north.
A large low pressure system moving into the West will bring stronger onshore flow with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts.
204 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 (Issued 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021) Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure lingering in the eastern Great Lakes Region will continue to linger through the evening before move off toward the New England states. A weak upper level low is expected to meander into the region Wednesday. As the upper level low moves in, there will be increasing humidity across Wisconsin. With the increasing moisture and weak upper level low, there could be just enough lift for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours.
The majority of the CWA will be dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s area-wide, with low chances for thunderstorms across the far eastern Rolling Plains as the weak, mid-level cyclone gradually moves across the southern Great Plains region. Sincavage An upper trough/low across the Pacific Northwest will make slow but steady eastward progress across the northern and central Rockies before emerging over the northern High Plains late week.
However, showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper trough are beginning to spread into Eastern Arkansas.
423 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Tonight: The synoptic pattern will consist of low-level SW return flow while our area will be on the W side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Lows will remain above normal in the low-mid 70s. With low-level thermal WAA a touch warmer, highs will be warmer Wed, while slightly cooler in the NW Delta where better rain & storm coverage will exist.
657 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A trough stalled across the western U. keeps the forecast area on the western periphery of high pressure at the surface. As the week goes on, the trough gradually pushes east causing moisture and temperature advection to increase and muggier conditions to return.
Smoke layer should persist aloft and will continue to impact diurnal temp trends through insulation (night) or blocking sun during the day. The main forecast challenges are the high level smoke, high temperatures, very low precipitation chances, and persistent fire weather concerns. However, the high resolution models (that consistently show these low chances) have been way overestimating high temperatures, and mid level temperatures remain quite mild.
High pressure was situated over the Great Lakes into the Mississippi Valley with seasonal temps in the low to mid 80s across the area. Clear and comfortable night ahead with temps in the low to mid 60s.
Model data suggest weak upper troughing will remain over the Midwest area during this period. Very weak flow at 850mb suggests most of the activity will die off after sunset, however can't rule isolated activity overnight with the potential for minor disturbances moving through the upper trough. Forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night looks similar, with the potential for widely scattered convection mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, given the weak upper trough overhead, an unstable air mass, and a general lack of a real focus for precipitation.
644 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A breezy afternoon across the area with low pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley resulting in a decent SPG through the region.
/Issued 158 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/ The active weather pattern continues, with the forecast areas remaining under the influence of a broad, positive-tilt trof stretching from the Great Lakes into west TX.
Upper air analysis shows upper ridging over the northern plains and an upper trough digging into the western CONUS. Ahead of the low, a tighter pressure gradient will bring in breezy conditions today. As we progress towards mid-week, ridge slides eastward and upper trough shifts over the rockies.
Unfortunately, with the thermal trough deepening the northwest winds winds that have been pushing most of the dense smoke out of the forecast area will become northeast west of the Cascades and begin pushing smoke from fires on the west Cascades foothills back into Jackson and to a lesser extent Josephine county.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 89 72 87 71 / 20 20 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 71 87 70 / 70 20 40 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 70 85 69 / 60 20 40 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 85 68 86 68 / 100 20 20 60 40 TN.
Broad high pressure across the CONUS gives way to a digging Pacific NW trough, and light 500 mb wind turns southwest ahead of the trough and increases late tonight and Wednesday morning. A weak surge down the northern foothills will turn surface wind northerly on the north I-25 corridor, then a lee side trough sets up with a return to southeast flow at the surface.
Otherwise the only other update is on the disturbance from remnants of TS Fred, which is currently tracking through the lower to mid Appalachians.
/28/ Tonight: The synoptic pattern will consist of low-level SW return flow while our area will be on the W side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Lows will remain above normal in the low-mid 70s. With low-level thermal WAA a touch warmer, highs will be warmer Wed, while slightly cooler in the NW Delta where better rain & storm coverage will exist.
Increased winds will be the main concern in the short term forecast as we see an upper level trough dig out of OR into the Great Basin tonight into tomorrow.
/issued 356 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021/ Recent UA analysis and WV imagery shows a positively tilted trough from the mid-MS Valley southwest acrs the southern plains, with the midlevel circulation associated with TD Fred apparent over the southern Appalachians. The trough over the southern plains was producing a widespread swath of clouds and convection acrs S OK and N TX, with more sctd activity occurring to the east and southeast of this feature. At the sfc, weak high pres is beginning to ridge back acrs the northern Gulf as what's left of Fred continues to move inland. Outside of any cooling showers, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s this aftn.
Still some semblance of inverted trough lingering near the southern Michigan border as well.
914 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Pennsylvania will remain under a moist southerly flow between a subtropical ridge off of the East Coast and weak troughing over the Great Lakes the remainder of the week. Rain chances will be on the increase from southwest to northeast overnight as this system approaches, and little change has been made to the high likely to categorical pops for much of the region.
/28/ Prior discussion below: Tonight: The synoptic pattern will consist of low-level SW return flow while our area will be on the W side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Lows will remain above normal in the low-mid 70s. With low-level thermal WAA a touch warmer, highs will be warmer Wed, while slightly cooler in the NW Delta where better rain & storm coverage will exist.
Latest water vapor imagery is showing a trough moving through Oregon with its associated upper level front pushing southward into central California. The aforementioned trough will dig into the Great Basin by Wednesday morning, turning the winds aloft back toward the north.
Cooler conditions with increasing night and morning marine layer clouds are expected through Wednesday along with gusty winds in the Antelope Valley.
A stout mid-level ridge along the eastern seaboard will build into Florida during the middle part of this week. Favorable boating conditions expected as weak high pressure builds back into the area.
The tight pressure gradient is is due to an Atlantic ridge extending across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Grace, which is located well south of Cuba and tracking fairly quickly westwards towards the Yucatan. Short Term Update - The ridge to our north and Grace passing by to our south will continue to squeeze the local pressure gradient. A ridge across Florida and Tropical Storm Grace passing westward in the Caribbean Sea has resulted in a gradient squeeze and freshening easterly breezes. A mix of cautions and advisories are in place across much of Keys waters with the Advisory for the Florida Straits west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
707 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 This morning, water vapor imagery showed an upper trough was set up across the Pacific Northwest and it has since slowly started to trek southeast. Lee troughing will also tighten up the pressure gradient across the region tomorrow bringing breezy conditions to much of the area.
A trough will depart the region tonight and an upper ridge will build into the area for a return to dry and warmer conditions by midweek. Another trough is expected to cool temperatures over the weekend with a chance for a few showers.
TFJ Hot and dry conditions will continue for the next few hours before a cold front moves through the area. Strong north winds are expected with this cold front and these winds will continue through the overnight hours. Behind the cold front the smoke will largely clear and much cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week.
update aviation A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. A strong cold front pushed south through much of the area, though it has not quite made it into Southwest MT, which is on track with what was expected.
Today will be considerably cooler, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Have let the rip current statement expire this evening, and light E/SE flow with afternoon coastal sea breezes will dominate under weak high pressure for the next several days.
831 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. As the upper level trough continues moving eastward overnight, precipitation will become more widespread and steady with much cooler temperatures expected on Wednesday. A strong cold front pushed south through much of the area, though it has not quite made it into Southwest MT, which is on track with what was expected.
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Pennsylvania will then remain under a moist southerly flow between a subtropical ridge off of the East Coast and weak troughing over the Great Lakes the remainder of the week, which will funnel the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred across the region on Wednesday. Rain chances will be on the increase from southwest to northeast overnight as this system approaches, and little change has been made to the high likely to categorical pops for much of the region.
318 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. A strong cold front pushed south through much of the area, though it has not quite made it into Southwest MT, which is on track with what was expected.
351 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 A couple more days of quiet weather are expected while the area remains under weak upper-level ridging.
304 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Pennsylvania will remain under a moist southerly flow between a subtropical ridge off of the East Coast and weak troughing over the Great Lakes the remainder of the week. Lows should range from the mid 60s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low and mid 70s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Warm temperatures today, especially across the I-75 corridor in Central With Fred finally moving out of the picture, mid-level ridging will will build off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This ridge will become more zonal oriented and shift over the southeastern states as Tropical Storm Henri shunts it west.
1110 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Pennsylvania will remain under a moist southerly flow between a subtropical ridge off of the East Coast and weak troughing over the Great Lakes the remainder of the week. Rain chances will be on the increase from southwest to northeast overnight as this system approaches, and little change has been made to the high likely to categorical pops for much of the region. It will be a mild and muggy night, with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the nrn and wrn highlands to the low 70s across the southeast.
240 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Much drier air aloft had moved into most of the region early this morning just behind the upper level low pressure trough edging east through the Red River Valley.
These temperatures are warmer than this time yesterday. High pressure located across the eastern CONUS was moving east. Warmer and more humid today with partly cloudy skies.
1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 This morning, water vapor imagery showed an upper trough was set up across the Pacific Northwest and it has since slowly started to trek southeast. Lee troughing will also tighten up the pressure gradient across the region tomorrow bringing breezy conditions to much of the area.
1113 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A trough stalled across the western U. keeps the forecast area on the western periphery of high pressure at the surface. As the week goes on, the trough gradually pushes east causing moisture and temperature advection to increase and muggier conditions to return.
Temperatures today should be a bit warmer than Tuesday given more sunshine expected with highs in the lower 90s. Any lingering convection this evening should wane quickly with sunset and the loss of heating as the upper ridge builds slightly. Overnight lows will again be mild in the lower to mid 70s.
A strong cold front will drop south across the region through the day today, which will help to usher in the cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation for the Northern Rockies. Slightly warmer air moves back into the region towards the end of the week, as the precipitation becomes more scattered. As the upper level trough continues moving eastward overnight, precipitation will become more widespread and steady with much cooler temperatures expected on Wednesday. mpj 1155 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021 (18/06Z TAF period) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push northwestward this evening as an upper level trough continues to work into the area. A strong cold front pushed south through much of the area, though it has not quite made it into Southwest MT, which is on track with what was expected.
239 AM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Cold front has made it trough the entire area and much cooler temperatures have spilled into southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Highs today will be 20-30 degrees cooler for almost everyone with temperatures held in the lower 60s over western and central zones. An anonymously deep upper low will slide into western Idaho tonight and this will send waves of ascent and moisture into the area today and tonight. The west will have the highest PoPs the next 24 hours, being closest to the proximity of the low, with the east all but shut out for now.
An upper trough over the region will continue to drive cooler and wetter conditions at times through the upcoming weekend.
A dry cold front has moved through the region this evening, bringing gusty northwest winds. The center of the upper level trough is north of Spokane this evening and will continue to move slowly south.
Look for another clear night tonight with lows once again in the 50s in most places and in the low 60s along the Lake Superior shoreline. Although 850 mb temps will be around 1-2 C warmer tomorrow, models also show a thicker patch of smoke advecting in which will probably limit surface warming. A deep trough in the western U. The 500 mb trough that is over the Rockies 12z Sun get ejected out into the northern plains 12z Mon and gets sheared out. Another trough moves into the Pacific NW 12z Mon and into the northern Rockies 12z Tue and into.
It will most certainly feel like a summertime August day outside today with afternoon highs in the lower 90s with heat indices near 100. Greater coverage of storms is anticipated across northwest Alabama along a slow moving trough axis that is just to the west of the forecast area this morning.
Warm rain processes, deep layer moisture in place, and a low level jet on the ern side of the low should support heavy rain at times. Followed close to the track of the HRRR and RAP, as upper air and sfc analysis show these models to be handling the track of the low well. The rain should taper off from SW to NE this afternoon and early evening as the low completes its passage. Much of the rain is expected to end this evening, though isolated showers should remain possible overnight as a broad upper trough approaches.
Latest satellite images show an upper-level trough digging southward into much of the Golden State.
1019 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Slow moving showers and storms are ongoing over much of southern and central Oklahoma and north Texas, supported by an upper level trough extending southwest from the Great Lakes into Oklahoma and north Texas. HREF keeps this activity going through mid afternoon, followed by a brief lull late this evening, before redeveloping convection (a bit farther south as the upper trough slowly moves off) before sunrise.
Can see early signs on the nighttime microphysics satellite imagery of the quick development and erosion of spotty stratus, removed from the high cloud bases. IFR, given the high based clouds streaming in from the south. Still some semblance of inverted trough lingering near the southern Michigan border as well.
258 AM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Current surface map places low over southwest North Dakota with cold front in southeast Montana/northern Wyoming. Cold front slides into western South Dakota this morning. Water vapor showers upper level trof moving into Northern Rockies. Biggest question for today will be eastward progression of the cold front as hi-res/short term guidance has front stalling out along eastern edge of forecast area. Narrow axis of instability along the cold front may support isolated thunderstorms late today. Lead impulse rotates out of upper trof into eastern Wyoming tonight.
1049 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 A breezy afternoon across the area with low pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley resulting in a decent SPG through the region.
The low pressure system responsible for the increased winds will slowly shift eastward and as it does we will see the areas impacted by the strongest winds shift as well. We will see lingering breezy conditions thursday with fire weather concerns continuing to decrease into this weekend as the low continues to head east. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement we will likely be under continued troughing over the West coast and see increasing onshore flow this weekend.
1010 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Several rounds of precipitation are expected to occur across the region through the weekend as the remnants of Fred move east, while an upper trough arrives from the west. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.