Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
609 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 (Today through Wednesday) An area of low pressure over the North Central Gulf of Mexico will move northeast across the Southeastern United States and into the Northeastern United States. This will allow for an associated weak cold front to move south and through South Florida late Wednesday. This will allow for a few showers to affect South Florida ahead and along the cold front.
Temperatures will show little recovery today with weak high pressure dropping south from Saskatchewan. With the more mixed airmass due to the winds, temperatures will be warmer even with the cold air advection during the day.
Freezing fog is present along US 395 passes in Mono County and over Anchorite Summit early this morning. Martis and Bridgeport valleys are also seeing freezing fog. Temperatures will be pretty consistent through the short term, with highs in the mid-40s in the lower valleys and upper-30s to low-40s in Sierra valleys. Nighttime lows will be rather cold, with teens expected in the lower valleys and teens to single digits in Sierra valleys, with the exception of climatologically colder valleys (Bodie, Boca, Bridgeport, etc.
A blocking pattern will keep a cold, dry airmass in place across the region through the week.
These clouds will keep high temperatures in the upper 30s' to the lower 40's in the northwest with mid 40's in the southeast where more sunshine is expected. The clouds are expected to linger over the western Panhandles overnight and then they should dissipate on Wednesday as a positively tilted upper level trough moves across and scours out the moisture. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly warmer with readings in the lower 40's to the lower 50's. Another cold front will move across the Panhandles on Wednesday which will also help to temper any warm up.
Strong high pressure will build into the region and usher in quite cold air for this time of year.
Strongest winds will be across the higher terrain of the North and East Bay interior and breezy conditions could mix into the valleys at times, but there is limited fire weather concern given recent rains. Mostly clear skies across the region tonight allowing for efficient cooling with morning lows at-or-near the freezing mark for North Bay and interior Monterey/San Benito county valleys.
922 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Aviation --Potential Tuesday Evening Commute Impacts-- The forecast remains on track, a negatively tilted trough will come up from the south and move through southern lower Michigan today into tomorrow.
With the thick low overcast, temperatures will only reach 47-49 atop the higher Plateau areas and lower 50s in valley locations.
Temperatures are expected to be well below normal as an arctic high pressure system settles into the central US. With the moisture from the weak low pressure system moving along the Gulf Coast continuing to override the cold air rain will dominate the daylight hours and into tonight. With some breaks in the clouds toward daybreak overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s and slightly cooler in typically cooler outlying locations.
From late today into Wednesday a cold front will move across Arizona from the northeast producing gusty northerly to northeasterly winds and cold early morning windchill. Another dry cold front looks to move across the state from the north over the weekend with chilly temperatures remaining place along with locally gusty northerly winds. A dry cold front will begin to move from north to south across northern Arizona late this afternoon and into early Wednesday. High temperatures will only be a few degreed cooler than yesterday with wind becoming north to northeasterly late this afternoon and increasing for most locations through the night. Wind chills along and north of the Mogollon Rim Wednesday morning will range from just below zero to the lower teens. The cold front have just enough moisture for snow flurries over the White Mountains Wednesday afternoon.
405 AM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 Latest 500 mb analyses showed a short wave trough moving southward on the western side of the long wave trough over the center of the nation. However, the cessation of snow showers is expected to be short- lived as divergence associated with jet on the western flanks of the trough over the Plains generates enough lift to generate another round of snow showers over the northern Colorado mountains late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.
502 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 KEY MESSAGES 1) Light snow or flurries continue Today into Wednesday morning with some light accumulations possible, highest east of the Buffalo Ridge.
523 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (Today) A low level cloud deck remained over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning as the backside of the upper level low continued to lift off to the northeast. high temps today in the low/mid 40s are forecast for much of the CWA.
Patchy early morning freezing fog is possible, especially over locations near rivers or lakes. There could be some patchy freezing fog in some of the valley locations but that is about it.
An elongated ridge of high pressure straddles the western coast of North America, setting up an omega blocking pattern with a persistent dry regime for the PACNW. RH values will begin to drop towards the teens for interior ridges by Wednesday, according to the NAM and HRRR.
Sunset and winds becoming more northwesterly overnight should allow temperatures to cool to near or below freezing before snowfall ends. Somewhat deeper lake- inversion heights and cooler temperatures should increasingly favor fluffy lake effect snow showers by Wednesday morning. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb high off the Pacific NW coast, a trough in southern CA and a deep trough in the upper Great Lakes 00z Wed. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep and broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. 12z Fri with a ridge off the west coast. This ridge moves onto the west coast by 12z Sun and then helps to push the trough further east into the eastern U. A few gusts up to 25 knots are possible today near Isle Royale as a low pressure digs SE towards Chicago.
Patchy freezing fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours.
311 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Gulf Coast low pressure with accompanying cold front will sweep across the area tonight and end the rain chances once it exits to the northeast. Dry high pressure with below normal temps can be expected for the remainder of the work-week and possibly extending into the upcoming weekend. Low pressure will move off the coast tonight, dragging a front along with it and bringing an end to showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. Mid to high level clouds linger across the area Wednesday night, thickest near the coast as a weak trough moves across.
Lows will range from the lower 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast.
(This evening through Wednesday night) The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad trough with the center moving over the eastern Dakotas as of 18z. A weak cold front will bring breezy winds tomorrow and help keep high temperatures about 20 degrees below normal.
Most of the overnight snowfall has melted as result of above freezing temperatures; though afternoon highs will struggle to reach 40 for most locations. Overnight lows in the lower 20s can be expected, with a few locations falling into the upper teens.
North winds will decrease tonight as high pressure settles in across the region, but passing mid and high clouds should keep low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The exception will be along the Red River, where temperatures may fall below freezing as less cloud cover is expected. Although it will still be quite chilly on Wednesday, highs should warm into the low to mid 50s.
Travel impacts have been limited so far due to mainly wet roads and sfc temps a degree or two above freezing and road temps around 35. That may change later tonight though as temps slip back slightly below freezing. Its possible that Van Buren and Allegan Counties start seeing some of this by Wednesday evening as the low level flow begins to back.
Not much of a diurnal range in these conditions will lows in the lower to mid 30s. An upper trough will be positioned across the Eastern CONUS, while at the surface, high pressure will be located to the south, with low pressure residing over the Great Lakes.
Some afternoon high temperatures saw the low to mid 50s, but only at a few sites, most are still climbing through the mid to upper 40s. Our morning lows will average above freezing with still a little wind. On the surface, a 1035mb core of high pressure will set up shop over the southern plains of NB/KN/OK by lunch time on Wednesday with fewer gusts for us.
256 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Tonight through Wednesday: A long stretch of chilly weather will continue in the near term over the forecast area as a large broad polar stream trough covers much of the nation. Through late week, cool and dry conditions dominated by high pressure will continue.
1131 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (The rest of today) Unseasonably cool conditions will persist today across the area in the wake of an exiting upper low that brought a round of snow to some of the region yesterday. Temperatures will remain fairly steady under the cloud cover and then rising into the low to mid 40s this afternoon after clearing, temps more typical of January.
247 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) It has been a cool, dreary day up until this point thanks to the combination of a brief, but strong, classical CAD event and the passage of a lobe of low pressure (and associated frontal system) across the Gulf Coast. Flow at the mid-levels remains out of the southwest as we find ourselves on the southern periphery of the broader trough pivoting across the northern Plains, sufficient to support continued weak moisture transport and lingering high clouds through late tomorrow.
930 AM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 Latest 500 mb analyses showed a short wave trough moving southward on the western side of the long wave trough over the center of the nation. However, the cessation of snow showers is expected to be short- lived as divergence associated with jet on the western flanks of the trough over the Plains generates enough lift to generate another round of snow showers over the northern Colorado mountains late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.
(The rest of today) Unseasonably cool conditions will persist today across the area in the wake of an exiting upper low that brought a round of snow to some of the region yesterday. Temperatures will remain fairly steady under the cloud cover and then rising into the low to mid 40s this afternoon after clearing, temps more typical of January.
This is expected to dampen radiational cooling effects enough such that lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than last night (though still below freezing for most) despite light surface winds. The upper wave will keep cloud cover in place for a good portion of the morning and early afternoon tomorrow, and this combined with continuing surface ridging and a dry and cool continental airmass will keep high temperatures stuck once again in the mid 40s to low 50s, which is generally 10 to 20 degrees below average for mid-November.
1123 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Radar shows rain has spread across the entire midstate early this morning in association with an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. Wednesday looks several degrees cooler than today with highs only in the 40s due to morning cloud cover. Another round of sprinkles and flurries are possible late Wednesday afternoon and early evening per the HRRR as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
Since this time, slightly warmer temperatures into the low to mid 30s has led to more melting on pavement and improved travel conditions. Slippery stretches are possible on roadways especially on untreated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses near or after sunset. Wednesday The upper low will continue to pivot over the area during the morning hours leading to patchy light snow or flurries into the early afternoon. Early morning temperatures in the 20s will promote freezing of snow/slush on the roads, so anticipate some areas of slippery travel for the morning commute. Temperatures will rebound into the lower to upper 30s by afternoon, which will quickly lead to improved travel conditions.
Outside of urban areas, near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley each morning through the weekend. Satellite loops show an upper-level low pressure system over the Central California coast. This low will continue to move southward along the coast today. Otherwise, expect the cool pattern to continue with near freezing overnight lows in the San Joaquin Valley during the remainder of this week.
1146 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 KEY MESSAGES 1) Light snow or flurries continue Today into Wednesday morning with some light accumulations possible, highest east of the Buffalo Ridge.
These continue to traverse east trailing a cold front and area of low pressure, and should overspread the FL panhandle over the next few hours. A surface warm front has penetrated inland across the FL panhandle counties, even recently into southern Covington County in Alabama, allowing for those areas to warm considerably into the lower 70's. Wednesday will be another cold, dreary day for many as cloud cover hangs on and temperatures only make it into the lower to middle 50's for most locations. A HIGH RISK of rip currents is in effect through this afternoon due to increased swell and surf heights associated with the passage of the low pressure system.
238 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 On the synoptic scale, a persistent deep trough across most of the contiguous United States will keep temperatures well below normal for the Quad State region through the short term forecast period. The trough axis tomorrow will provide very little change in surface wind direction but speed will increase with gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon.
tonight and out into the Atlantic Ocean Wednesday helping to drive a cold front south through the area. Behind the front northerly winds will usher in cooler drier air across the area as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Despite increasing mid and high level clouds, light easterly winds and dewpoints in the low 20s should result in another chilly morning on Wednesday, though warmer than this morning. Upper 20s across the higher terrain and portions of southeastern New Mexico with 30s elsewhere can be expected. Isolated showers may be possible across northern Eddy and Lea Counties during the afternoon with upslope flow and increasing synoptic lift with the approaching trough as well. Temperatures quickly fall to near or below freezing overnight Wednesday. Very little to no accumulation is expected with perhaps only a light dusting on grassy surfaces in the higher elevations.
Light freezing rain is also expected across eastern Tucker county. Given the dewpoint temperatures below freezing, a period of snow is occurring at onset across much of the region as temperatures fall to the wet bulb temperature. Where temperatures take longer to warm - in the higher terrain and north of I-80, an inch or two of snow accumulation may be possible. Persistent southeasterly flow/upslope, especially north and east of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain will keep temperatures near or below freezing through the remainder of the afternoon/evening, which will support the continued threat for freezing rain. Temperatures should remain a touch above freezing, limiting any freezing drizzle potential.
1004 AM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 Sent a few updates this morning to address the freezing fog over near our border with North Dakota and to include the mention of flurries today through tonight. Temperatures will show little recovery today with weak high pressure dropping south from Saskatchewan. With the more mixed airmass due to the winds, temperatures will be warmer even with the cold air advection during the day.
Temperatures will be similar both today and Wednesday with highs generally holding in the 50s while the overnight lows will trend from the 30s into the low 40s.
Light northerly winds will help to keep most of the area below freezing. Tomorrow will remain similar to today with highs in the 40s/50s behind a shot of reinforced cooler air.
(This evening through Wednesday) Cold high pressure continues to remain in control across the central and southern Plains this afternoon. As the high center pushes further south, the pressure gradient should relax, allowing winds to decrease to around 5 MPH overnight. Despite the light winds and cold airmass, the cloud cover should be enough to allow temperatures to remain a few degrees above freezing for most areas. Tomorrow, high pressure will still be the main feature, resulting in light northeast winds across the area. Cloud cover will linger through much of the day, so temperatures will only reach the low 50s tomorrow afternoon.
Travel impacts are unlikely as temperatures remain above freezing. Combined with temps running slightly warmer, this will shorten the window for accumulation to occur where rain is able to transition to snow. Model soundings show enough saturation in the column around H8 to support some pcpn fighting through the low level dry air. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the low to mid 40s. Nighttime lows Tuesday night will fall into the upper 20s to near 32F while Wednesday night will be even colder with strong radiational cooling as temps fall into the low 20s. General troughing will persist over the eastern half of the country for much of the longer term period.
245 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Mean upper-level longwave troughing over is expected to remain over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, leaving the Midwest in a regime of broad, deep cyclonic flow through Wednesday. As such, high temps will range from the low-30s in northeastern MO/west-central IL to around 40 in southeastern MO, with more uncertainty between these areas. Pfahler Mean upper-level longwave troughing over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes is advertised to make little eastward advancement through the rest of week, supporting broadly cyclonic flow to hold through the Midwest.
Overnight will be quite chilly with lows dropping down into the low 20s to teens. Regardless, very chilly high temperatures are expected on Wednesday with locations north of I-70 unlikely to reach above freezing. South should top out just a few degrees warmer in the mid 30s.
1132 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (Today through Wednesday) A broad upper level trough covers the country this morning with the flow over Texas curved slightly anticyclonically. Low pressure at the surface has the winds across our CWA from the north to northwest. Cloudy skies on the backside of the low still cover parts of our eastern counties. The low level winds will start from the north today and turn to the northeast through the afternoon. This is bringing cooler air. Cloudy skies overnight will keep temperatures a little warmer Wednesday morning.
232 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 A mid to upper low will continue to move south southeast out of the region through the rest of the day. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide south south east across the west. This will make the cloud forecast a challenge as models want to clear out the area under the high, but abundant snow pack will probably keep at least some clouds hanging around. A warm front will approach the west Wednesday morning and move east across the state through the day, bringing a chance for some light snow and more stratus. This will mean warmer highs (but still well below normal) in the 20s. A reinforcing cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday evening, moving southeast across the state overnight.
With temperatures already above freezing today and a 40 degree 2 inch should temperatures, , melting should be efficient over the next couple of days. Wednesday will be several degrees warmer, especially where all the snow has melted - low 40s across this currently snow covered area is erring on the upper side of the distribution.
The clouds will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 30s for lows, but if more clearing takes place, these will have to be cut a bit more.
Outside of northerly winds, high temperatures will remain around 5- 10 degrees cooler than normal for the next few days.
From late today into Wednesday a cold front will move across Arizona from the northeast producing gusty north to northeast winds and cold early morning windchill. Another dry cold front looks to move across the state from the north over the weekend with chilly temperatures remaining in place along with locally gusty northerly winds.
Yesterday I compared the high temperatures to normal November values, but perhaps I should compare it to our January averages (48/30 at Knoxville), brr. Ultimately the low responsible for our wet period is translating up to the Mid-Atlantic tonight and heading to Canada on Wednesday. Meanwhile the upper trough pivots from the Central Plains to the Ohio River.
Key points: - Some light snow accumulations tonight mainly from the sandhills up through the Pine Ridge.
240 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 The long-wave pattern shows an elongated ridge of high pressure extending over the eastern Pacific north into Alaska while a broad trough spins over the Upper Plains region. This increased forcing will bring another round of light snow to the higher terrain of western Colorado.
500 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Cold high pressure continues to remain in control across the central and southern Plains this afternoon. As the high center pushes further south, the pressure gradient should relax, allowing winds to decrease to around 5 MPH overnight. Despite the light winds and cold airmass, the cloud cover should be enough to allow temperatures to remain a few degrees above freezing for most areas. Tomorrow, high pressure will still be the main feature, resulting in light northeast winds across the area. Cloud cover will linger through much of the day, so temperatures will only reach the low 50s tomorrow afternoon.
With temperatures already above freezing today and a 40 degree 2 inch soil temperature, melting should be efficient over the next couple of days. Wednesday will be several degrees warmer, especially where all the snow has melted - low 40s across this currently snow covered area is erring on the upper side of the distribution.
Temperatures are hovering right around or just above freezing from eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, which is resulting in some stations reporting periods of rain or a rain/snow mix. Aloft, the upper low will continue to pivot across the Dakotas and Minnesota before slowly lifting out over the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. We'll see a brief break in the precip early Wednesday afternoon before another light round of snow develops overnight behind the passage of a cold front.
Upper level low continues to dig down the coast of California pushing into SoCal with strong ridging building into the PacNW. The upper level ridge will build over NorCal during the day tomorrow and that will relax the gusty winds over the region.
810 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Another round of light precipitation is expected overnight, mainly north of Pittsburgh, as low pressure passes to our northwest. Freezing drizzle should not be a widespread concern as temperatures are already near or above freezing, and likely to slowly rise overnight. Light freezing rain will continue to be possible along the higher elevations of eastern Tucker County, as well as other spotty ridge locations, given several more hours of upslope flow before low- level flow starts to veer.
Tonight and Wednesday Light snow will continue to fall across most of the area overnight due to the combination of weak jet energy rotating around the upper low, and cold air flowing across Lake Michigan producing lake enhancement of the snow.
Low pressure over Manitoba and High pressure over British Columbia are both acting in concert to direct northerly flow through out entire CWA.