Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An inverted trough still extends across southern and western WI with light snow continuing to fall mainly east of the Mississippi River. Slightly higher air temperatures have kept wind chills warmer for much of today, but finally starting to see some 20 to 25 below zero readings across southeast MN. High pressure builds across the region on Tuesday, resulting in the dry conditions and gradually decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast. Expect highs to range from the single digits west of the MS River to the low 20s across central WI.
Although cold advection will be waning overnight, the new colder airmass will limit highs on Tuesday to the teens across central Kansas and 20s in the higher elevations of the far west.
While skies have partially cleared across all but the far SE KILX CWA, additional clouds associated with a sharp trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest will pivot southward tonight.
However, guidance wants to keep clouds around and this may tend to keep temps warmer than what I have in the NDFD. Max temps will likely not get above freezing across most of the plains tomorrow, with the warmest temps at lower elevations occurring west of I-25.
621 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Low pressure near Detroit will move off to the east tonight while weakening to leave a trough hanging back into Lake Erie through Tuesday.
552 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area overnight and remain through Tuesday evening, bringing light snow to the region. High pressure situated off the New England coast will slow the progression of the surface therefore prolonging the period of light snow over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills.
Breezy southwest winds through the Livingston gap and western foothills could cause some patchy blowing snow tomorrow until temperatures can warm above freezing.
640 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area overnight and remain through Tuesday evening, bringing light snow to the region. High pressure situated off the New England coast will slow the progression of the surface therefore prolonging the period of light snow over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills.
1034 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will remain in control of the region into Tuesday.
532 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 The cold front is about 4 to 5 hours from making it into Austin with an arrival to the rest of the TAF sites 1-2 hours later. Rain will be possible behind the front before a few hours before transitioning to freezing rain and sleet. A deep upper level trough covers most of the eastern half of the country and the flow over Texas is from the northwest. A cold front was stretched across north Texas this afternoon. The cold air will move in in a shallow layer making freezing rain and sleet likely. South or this line precip will remain freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures Tuesday will be steady through the day with only the southern counties getting above freezing.
1005 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure will linger over the region through Tuesday.
Also getting some reports of localized freezing fog and light snow/flurries on the N and E side of Great Falls as an area of shallow low clouds moves westward. A fairly extensive low cloud deck extends north along the Rocky Mtn front and with light east to southeast flow continuing through late this evening likely to generate some light flurries due to upslope influence will add flurries in addition to areas of freezing fog to these areas. Hoenisch High pressure will maintain mostly clear skies overnight into Tuesday. On Tuesday winds will increase from the SW across western portions of north central MT as weak trough of low pressure develops to the east of the Rockies.
838 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Low clouds across the east this evening will slowly move away through the night as a strong 1050mb high pressure area settles over the cwa. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower single digits above zero east to around 10 degrees west of the Missouri River.
High pressure over the region will give way to a weak disturbance brushing the southern Sierra and central Nevada Tuesday with a few sprinkles or high elevation flurries.
Will see a mix of low and mid level clouds and VFR conditions overnight as a strong cold front approaches the Southern Appalachian region.
542 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Strong cold front moving through the area this evening with a gusty north wind. /issued 306 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ The cold front is currently located near the I-20 corridor and is rapidly moving south. The earlier frontal passage will mean the elevated warm layer will be more eroded by cold air advection and the threat for freezing rain may be reduced, with sleet or snow being the more likely precip type. This may not have too much of an impact though because models have been showing less precip occurring in our CWA with only a few hundredths liquid equivalent falling in the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. The clearing may not come soon enough to affect temps much so prefer the cooler MET for Tue highs.
913 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A cold front passes through the region tonight through Tuesday. No major changes to the overall totals for the entire CWA Low pressure passes north of the area tonight and into the Great Lakes and continues Northeastward during the day on Tuesday. The trailing cold front with this low slowly moves through the area tonight and during the day tomorrow, bringing a band of snow with it. With a positive tilted upper trof movement of the front will be relatively slow to push through. Slightly high amounts of 2 to 4 in the higher elevations of the Eastern mountains of WV. High pressure builds at the surface from the West through the period, gradually drying us out as the upper level trough and cold front slowly move out to the East.
Cold front is now through CKV and soon to pass through BNA and MQY.
A narrow but amplified ridge moving in from the west has started to impact temperatures across portions of northeast Montana today, with highs across the southwest and the Little Rockies making it to the single digits and teens above zero this afternoon. With the ridge moving into place, we will see improvement Tuesday with highs in the teens and 20s above, and warming temperatures through mid-week.
However, as the upper level jet pivots across the lower Ohio Valley, we should be more in the right entrance region.
A cold front will bring rain to the region this evening.
546 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Arctic high pressure will build southeast across central South Dakota overnight and down into the Southern Plains Tuesday. The latest guidance shows temperatures ranging from the upper single digits across our far east, to the lower 20s over the far west.
Ample cold advection beneath the western rim of a deep midlevel cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region continues across the Great Plains. For late this week into the the upcoming weekend, the upper-level wave pattern over the CONUS will initially de-amplify before medium-range model guidance indicates mean troughing becoming established over the western/central states. In response to these developments, the boundary layer should be warming by mid/late week while lee troughing becomes established over portions of the High Plains.
1038 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Satellite loop showed high clouds increasing across Middle Tennessee, ahead of an approaching low pressure system to our west. Current temperature at Nashville, of 34 degrees, is the highest temperature we've seen in four days--since the temperature at Nashville hit 37 degrees, back on the 3rd. The best icing potential should be at CSV 08/09Z-08/12Z where light freezing rain should be prevalent.
307 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 High pressure will remain to our south tonight. Low pressure tracking to our northwest will pull an occluded front across the area Monday.
Model soundings indicating drier air will spread across western Kansas tonight as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas. Based on these expected conditions the previous forecast still looks on track with lows in the low to mid 20s.
Expect winds to shift to the north and diminish behind a cold front late this afternoon.
High pressure will bring dry weather and mostly light winds to the area through tonight.
Surface temps from recent pavement sensor sites do indicate that most surfaces still remain below freezing with temps in the upper 20s being common over the forecast area extending into east central KS. Trends in forecast solutions for temps have been to continue to remain on track for warmer than previously forecast temps and also for precip focus to remain highest along and southeast of the I-335 corridor. There is still some concern that web bulb cooling effects could cause temps to fall in areas that would yield a set up for areas of patchy freezing drizzle and perhaps light freezing rain to occur after 12Z to the 14- 15Z time frame over portions of northeast and east central KS causing a light glaze of ice on surfaces.
251 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 As of 3pm, the cold front has pushed south of the CWA and breezy north winds have fallen below advisory criteria.
Warmer temperatures have finally made it to the region with most areas rising near or above the freezing mark late this afternoon for the first time in quite awhile. Will see a good deal of sunshine as an upper level ridge builds over the western and central US with surface winds slowing turning out of the south again by the afternoon hours.
An approaching wave moving through the northern Rockies, combined with isentropic lift in the low levels could create a couple of areas of precipitation, of mixed winter variety. Surface temperatures initially below freezing, which results in some patchy freezing drizzle, which mainly affects an area along and south of a line from Beatrice in NE to about Clarinda in IA, coincident with an area which is depicted bu very low condensation pressure deficits on the 280K isentropic surface. There could be a secondary area of precipitation today, mostly in northeast NE, again where some low level isentropic lift on the 280K surface is noted within an area of low pressure condensation deficits.
Upper trof across CO will continue to shift southeast this morning. North winds will remain breezy with gusts to 25 to 35 kts this morning behind the cold front. Lee trof redevelops overnight across the lower eastern slopes/adjacent plains which should keep min temps relatively mild where westerly drainage winds set in. Upper ridge slides across the region, providing for a dry and mild day. Look for highs in the 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains.
Upper level long wave ridge axis shifts eastward into the Plains States starting on Monday.
Low temperature mainly in the 20s with some teens in the lower elevation river valleys. The ridge axis aloft moves to our east with the flow becoming west. This will aid in the development of a surface lee trough and boost maximum temperatures into the mid 40s to mid 50s with downslope southwest winds. Even more mild as the atmosphere modifies with some locations seeing overnight lows above freezing due to decent mixing and winds.
We will continue to see the potential for minor ice accretion for the next few hours mainly east of the Highway 65 corridor. Highs on Monday should be fairly close to normal with most areas warming into the lower and middle 40s.
148 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 A rather dry high pressure ridge will be over western and central Wyoming tonight and Monday with increasing west to southwest flow over the mountains as the ridge axis shifts into central Wyoming.
Expect temps and dewpoints to continue to moderate through the day as the southerly winds increase in advance of an approaching cold front progged to swing through the area overnight into early Monday. For those who are tired of the cold weather, the good news is that temperatures behind the front will be only marginally cooler with lows actually about 10 degrees warmer than what we're seeing this morning.
234 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Warmer air will begin to arrive today with snow arriving this evening. The snow will likely mix at times with freezing rain and sleet, especially along and south of Route 30 overnight.
A cold front will cross SE TX between 03-09z and a line of showers and thunderstorms will move across area TAF sites. The upper trough is forecast to come through during the overnight Monday morning hours. The cold front will veer strengthening winds around to the northwest during the daytime morning hours.
907 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Temperatures have been a little warmer over the past few hours than the forecast had.
Dense fog continues across the Lower Treasure Valley this morning, mainly west of Caldwell. Dry upper ridge will persist over the area into Monday, before giving way to an approaching upper trough. For today, moisture moving over the ridge will bring increased mid-high clouds across the area. A possible exception to this would be the lower Treasure Valley (west of Caldwell) and the Weiser basin, where areas of dense fog have formed and the mid-high cloud cover this afternoon could inhibit mixing. An approaching trough will increase the chance for showers across far southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon as flow aloft shifts to the southwest.
249 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Forecast challenge in the immediate short term focuses on the chance for a resurgence of fog and freezing fog tonight through early Monday morning.
At the surface, high pressure has built over our CWA, with lee trough closer to the front range. Tonight-Monday: Broad ridging builds eastward and west-southwest flow aloft will be in place by late Monday afternoon. Lee troughing will shift eastward towards the CO/KS state line and WAA will increase.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 32 41 36 / 0 30 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 28 42 35 / 0 10 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 38 29 41 35 / 0 20 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 21 40 34 / 0 10 50 40 TN.
Overnight as a cold front approaches, VFR to IFR conditions may develop at eastern sites. Cold front moves through TAF sites between around 08 and 10Z with VFR but breezy conditions developing behind it. Looks like the low level jet is a bit too strong for areas of fog. Cooler and lots more sunshine on Monday. However, forecast dew points are expected to be in the lower 60s later today, and even if that is too high even a few degrees lower should generate some fog later today and tonight.
/Issued 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ We are starting to see some of the radar echoes aloft make it to the ground in the form of rain across parts of far northeast Oklahoma as the low level airmass continues to slowly saturate.
Lows will range from the mid 20s in the higher elevations of the Sandhills, to the mid and upper teens in Valleys and other favorable cold air drainage locations.
/DC/ Rest of today: Overall a warmer and cloudy day is expected with increasing rain chances slowly filtering in from the west by later this afternoon. This will help drive the developing low pressure and associated frontal system towards our area.
248 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Low pressure will return wintry precipitation to the area Monday.
It's not out of the question for a little freezing rain or drizzle if saturation is briefly lost in the ice growth region. Approaching high pressure Monday will bring clearing skies to southern Wisconsin.
All model guidance continues to trend further east with any showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop later this evening most likely after 8-9 pm after the cold front passes through the I-35 corridor.
Starting to see some clearing from the west as the upper level trough approaches and the lift begins to shift east. Gusty winds following a cold front across the Permian Basin and South Plains will arrive late this afternoon/early this evening and wind speeds may be briefly gusty for a few hours before it settles down. Cooler tonight with lows in the mid/upper 30s. More sunshine tomorrow to offset the slightly cooler air mass in place, so highs will be reaching the low to mid 60s.
Overnight lows will not be much cooler with rainfall continuing to overspread the region, driving up dew points to near 40 by sunrise.
/issued 425 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ Upper ridge will be building in mid week which will moderate temperatures considerably.
As a result of WAA ahead of an approaching warm front, temperatures continued to slowly rise through the night.
At the surface, a trough axis swinging through the region is switching winds to the northwest, and as sky cover has decreased, winds have become more gusty. thanks to those NW winds mixing into warmer air aloft. The forecast through tonight and tomorrow remains dry, with models in good agreement showing northwesterly flow aloft, set up between the troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, our pattern is driven by high pressure, which models show sliding south over the High Plains tonight, ending up roughly over the OK/TX panhandles by sunrise tomorrow. As far as highs go tomorrow, have locations getting at least as warm as they did today, and for some (mainly ENE areas), it may be arnd 5 deg warmer.
230 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor imagery this afternoon capturing a mid-level closed low along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border with a trough extending southward into the eastern Dakotas. Meanwhile, another trough was pushing east across the central Plains. Will have to watch this trough as it swings through this evening. A couple caveats though, with a small chance of some very light patchy freezing drizzle for portions of southwest/central WI. Another caveat is HRRR showing the possibility of some light snow right along the trough axis as it moves through. Clearing skies expected for later tonight after midnight as the trough exits east. Monday appears mostly sunny as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
1018 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 The warm front currently runs north-south in the vicinity of the Red River. However, based on the METRo road temp model, reduced area of freezing drizzle. Upper level jet will nose into the area from the northwest or on the south periphery of the upper trough today.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Short wave trough and cold front moving through West Texas and the Panhandle early this afternoon and should be accelerating overnight moving through the CWA after midnight and offshore by sunrise Monday. Dry northwest flow develops in wake of the front and may strengthening to 20-25 mph in the eastern counties and along the coast as a low pressure areas deepens over the Northcentral Gulf. However, with the lowest humidity occurring mid afternoon at the time winds begin to diminish should lower any threat.
1118 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Most of the lower clouds have moved on and dissipated across all but the high mountains of the CWA. Mountain snowfall is beginning to decrease early this morning as upper level trough axis passes to our east. They should mix with a little snow behind a cold front which has just pushed through, before more significant drying comes in from the north and ends the scattered showers early this morning. In the high country, the showers will likely linger a few hours longer with orographics aiding light precipitation. On Monday, upper level high pressure will dominate the Rocky Mountain Region, with mild and dry weather across all of north central and northeastern Colorado.
316 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 High pressure to the north, has turned the wind more east northeast today. The high will try to hang on as a 500mb trough digs southeast from the plains. This trough will deepen slightly and become enclosed by Monday, and move over the northern Gulf.
As high pressure builds in from the west, the gradient will weaken and winds become lighter, but still remain with a westerly component. There will also be some high clouds spilling over the ridge.
245 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough diving into central Texas, and pushing a cold front south towards West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Weak high pressure will begin to build into western Montana and central Idaho from the southwest this evening into Monday morning. As high pressure further establishes itself on Monday, precipitation should come to an end across northwest Montana, though cloud cover will likely linger.
Sub-freezing surface areas continue to cause icy surfaces on sidewalks, roads, and bridges, despite the above-freezing air temperatures. While most roadways should have sufficient drying time before temps return to below freezing, any saturated roadways and elevated surfaces will need to be monitored for black ice Sunday night into Monday morning. This will be most likely to occur across northeastern Missouri to central Missouri, where rain showers were slow to taper off and overnight temps will cool to the low to mid 20s. This will help to both clear remaining cloud cover and push surface temperatures into the low to mid 40s for most of the local area.
All the action in the short term period will be in the first 12 hours with an approaching cold front. Have cold front pushing through between about 2 and 5am northwest to southeast.
/Issued 324 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ A positively tilted upper level trough located from Wyoming into southwest Utah will slide southeast across the Panhandles today. A fast moving cold front will sweep southward across the region this morning in association with this disturbance.
A cold front that is moving through northwestern Oklahoma will bring a rapid end to these conditions once it passes. Temperature trends were adjusted along with increasing wind speeds behind the cold front over northwestern Oklahoma.
Expecting very light freezing rain in the area, but then temps in the afternoon trying to warm up. Also, after sunrise, northern half of the valley locations may struggle a bit to rise above freezing. Looked at some hi-res models and some of them show freezing temps lingering into the afternoon Monday and very light winds in the. Have ended up going with a multi- section advisory with earlier times in the west and later times in the east with mainly patchy problems with ice for roads--think precip will be too light while temps are below freezing for trees and utilities to have issues.
1135 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Have made some adjustments to the forecast due to much warmer than expected temperatures. Road surface temperatures have also warmed into the lower 30s as well. These warmer temperatures will lead to just rain once it starts precipitation over eastern KS and western MO. Have also updated the weather grids, removing freezing rain mention and reducing ice amounts in the remaining portion of western segment of the winter weather advisory. First, air temperatures are warmer than previously thought, especially in our southern and western zones, with several sites already at or above freezing and unlikely to cool down given the warm advection regime we're in.
High pressure will briefly build across the region today.
Southerly winds began to advect warmer air ahead of the warm front that as of 09Z Sunday was located west of the CWA, along the Missouri River Valley. Highs will mainly be near/above freezing. Areas along and south of I-90 could see very light freezing rain/drizzle this morning into early afternoon. However, with a deep area of warmer and drier air between 800:900 hPa, have only mentioned slight chances in the forecast.
1014 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Rest of today: Overall a warmer and cloudy day is expected with increasing rain chances slowly filtering in from the west by later this afternoon. This will help drive the developing low pressure and associated frontal system towards our area.