Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /00Z TAFS/ High pressure aloft will result in VFR conditions across the terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level high pressure ridge still centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley continues to keep a sinking upper level airmass over the area. Daytime heating will form scattered low clouds, but none are expected to break the cap of stability caused by this high pressure area aloft.
with a warm front extending eastward along the I-80 corridor. A large cluster of showers/thunderstorms has been ongoing throughout the day northeast of the low over southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin. May see some re-development along the cold front later in the afternoon: however, subsidence in the wake of the morning convective system may act to suppress widespread development initially.
High pressure builds over the area Saturday. RH values will have a modest recovery, especially up north where high temperatures will generally only be in the low to mid 80s, and a couple of locations in the far northeast may struggle to reach 80 degrees. Winds will continue to be an issue Saturday, especially in the east as the Canadian upper low starts to turn southeast in the general direction of the Great Lakes. Saturday night an upper level ridge axis will be positioned over the Northern Rockies resulting in a dry northwest flow aloft over Northeast Montana.
Upper ridge and associated warm mid-level temperatures will weaken for Saturday allowing for a greater chance of afternoon storms. Initially coverage will be best over the higher terrain, but then move into the Valley.
Expect similar conditions Saturday afternoon as upper high continues to dominate the overall weather pattern.
Central Indiana will remain on the edge of a strong upper ridge into Saturday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The combination of these very hot temperatures and high surface dewpoints are producing heat index values between 105 to 113 degrees across the Mid-South with the highest readings occurring across areas along and West of the Mississippi River.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the period. Expect similar conditions Saturday afternoon as upper high continues to dominate the overall weather pattern.
Broad mid/upper low moved into the northern gulf this afternoon and temps aloft warmed considerably (around 4-5C). As a result coverage and intensity of storms were much less than yesterday given the warmer temps aloft and lack of upper dynamics.
Existing complex of showers and storms pushed cooler outflow southward to near I-80 in Iowa. A few showers and isolated storms still possible into Saturday night northeast of I-94 with mid-level trough and steeper lapse rates.
Breezy and cooler Saturday with risk of a few showers or t-storms in NW MN.
808 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A weak cold front moving southward from Quebec may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the international border through this evening.
Upper analysis shows mainly zonal flow across the northern CONUS as an upper low flattens the broad upper ridge as it crosses the Canadian prairie provinces and swings and weak upper trough across the northern plains.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies reign south of I-64, with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s in the cooler valleys, to the lower 80s in some of the broader valleys and ridgetops. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s looks on target, although did nudge a few valley readings down a bit more based on the trends in observations. As we move into Saturday another steamy day is on tap with maximum forecasts mostly in the lower 90s and heat indices near 100.
1224 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure will shift eastward across the region tonight and Saturday with fair weather and slightly above normal temperatures. A wave of low pressure will move eastward along a boundary stalled to our south across the mid Atlantic region bringing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the southeastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut Saturday night.
1024 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge passing across the southern states through the weekend.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across South Florida overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be located near the eastern Bahamas tonight.
Even so, low temperatures tonight are quite warm with temperatures falling only into the mid-70s up into the low 80s. The persistent upper level ridge shifts slightly eastward overnight, and finally begins to break down by late Saturday afternoon. A surface cold front extending from northern Illinois into western Kansas will push south, bisecting the area by late afternoon.
911 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend.
Strong upper level ridging layered across the mid CONUS was on a weakening trend, as a weak upper low retrogrades westward along the NE Gulf coast. The presence of this low was helping with the formation of scattered convection well south of the Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies prevailed across much of the Tennessee Valley, with air temperatures into the low/mid 90s, and heat indexes into the 102-106 range. Mild to warm night time lows will "cool" into the lower 70s with light/variable winds. The upper high over the region will break down more as moisture from the southern low weakens the ridge. High temperatures in the low/mid 90s, along with dewpoint values into the low/mid 70s will yield more heat indices into the upper 90s NE Alabama and adjacent southern middle Tennessee, to 107-109 across parts of NW Alabama.
Upper high positioned just to the west of the mid state this afternoon. Current temps are in the lower to mid 90s, except a few upper 80s along the Plateau. Despite a slight decrease in the strength of the upper high on Saturday, thermal w-e ridging will expand eastward.
The ridge builds back in, which keeps the Northern Rockies hot and dry through the weekend.
Despite increasing CIN for surface-based parcels, non-hydrostatic pressure perturbations associated with already-established mesocyclones may persist for some time, even if updrafts become more elevated with time. At the surface, low pressure was near Watford City/Stanley area of western Lake Sakakawea. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary, with the high res CAMs indicating south central ND and into the James Valley as the most likely area for increasing thunderstorm coverage as the CAP erodes with temperatures rising into the 90s.
Temperatures on Saturday will likely be similar to and possibly a few degrees warmer than Friday for most locations.
This will be along and ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Dewpoints will steadily increase ahead of the cold front, reaching into at least the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms ahead of the cold front could be strong to severe with the main threats being gusty winds and large hail from the strongest storms.
1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 An upper level area of low pressure currently centered over southeastern Louisiana will continue to progress westward during the overnight hours resulting in scattered high clouds across the region. The forcing from the upper level low could result in VCSH developing near KARA and KLFT by early morning and transition to VCTS for all the area TAF sites by mid morning tomorrow. With the upper level low directly over the region tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will likely be more widespread in coverage compared to the previous few days.
832 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A stalled frontal boundary south of the area will attempt to lift north as a warm front overnight.
935 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017 High pressure aloft will bring seasonally hot weather through the weekend.
VFR conditions to prevail tonight and Saturday with high pressure overhead maintaining drier air through the atmosphere. An upper level low pressure area over the North Central Gulf of Mexico to drift west while weakening tonight and Saturday. /issued 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Not much change to the short term forecast, as the summertime ridge remains the main influence on local weather. The ridge will continue to produce hot temperatures areawide.
950 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A stalled frontal boundary south of the area will attempt to lift north as a warm front overnight.
420 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A warm front will result in increasing cloud cover over the northern mountains with some showers expected in the east slopes of the northern Cascades tonight. Clouds will clear on Saturday with warmer temperatures back up into the 90s this weekend.
1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Upper low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will aid in destabilizing the airmass Saturday, which make it difficult to indicate preferential timing of convectoin.
The dome of hot air will sit over the Lower Missouri River Valley for another day, through Saturday, but relief is in sight as we expect a change in the broad scale pattern to usher in a slightly cooler and drier airmass for at least a few days starting late this weekend well into next work week. The arrival of the front will continue to justify a slight chance of storms developing as early as the afternoon hours of Saturday across far northern Missouri, and any storms that bubble up would have a lot of instability to work with; but it looks more likely that storm development will wait till the evening and overnight hours as the supporting upper level trough swings across the Northern and Central Plains that night.
These storms are staying on the northern side of the large upper high centered over the Central Plains. Temperatures on Saturday will likely be similar to and possibly a few degrees warmer than Friday for most locations.
Lows generally in the low to mid 70s looks on target, although did nudge a few valley readings down a bit more based on the trends in observations. As we move into Saturday another steamy day is on tap with maximum forecasts mostly in the lower 90s and heat indices near 100.
The higher dewpoints and continue mostly clear sky will allow patchy fog to develop again early Saturday morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 95 75 90 / 20 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 94 74 89 / 20 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 75 94 75 89 / 20 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 92 71 88 / 20 30 20 60.
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A weak cold front moving southward from Quebec may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the international border through this evening.
On Saturday, inverted trough will continue to move westward across the Gulf.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected. Vapor imagery reveals a weak upper low moving across the marine area this morning and this will provide at least some assistance to developing thunderstorms this afternoon. Given that a little more convection is expected today, especially across the western half of the region, will show temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the western portion of the region, but in the mid 90s in the eastern half of the region. Overnight lows will dip in the lower to middle 70s.
Some drier/cooler mid level air should promote a potential for strong wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes.
The upper high over the region will break down more as moisture from the southern low weakens the ridge. High temperatures in the low/mid 90s, along with dewpoint values into the low/mid 70s will yield more heat indices into the upper 90s NE Alabama and adjacent southern middle Tennessee, to 107-109 across parts of NW Alabama.
1013 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge passing across the southern states through the weekend.
Residual cloud cover from this convection as well as a blocking of the richest moisture return has greatly limited instability across central MN & west-central WI.
532 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal plume overhead with thunderstorms popping up over the higher mountains this afternoon. The cold front has passed south through our eastern plains counties, and a more northeast upslope fetch along the Laramie Range should aide in storm development along these mountains. Additional development along the Cheyenne Ridge (I-80 corridor) is still progged by most models through later this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be roughly 5-10 degrees cooler in the post-frontal environment, and temps aloft will cool a couple of degrees as well. Moist southeasterly return flow will aide in destabilizing the atmosphere some through the afternoon, especially along the eastern side of the Laramie Range and the Cheyenne Ridge.
At the surface, low pressure was near Watford City/Stanley area of western Lake Sakakawea. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary, with the high res CAMs indicating south central ND and into the James Valley as the most likely area for increasing thunderstorm coverage as the CAP erodes with temperatures rising into the 90s.
Saturday will likely feature the hottest day of the Summer with the ridge axis directly over us and a 850mb thermal ridge edging in.
720 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge passing across the southern states through the weekend.
Otherwise quieting down and awaiting a cold front which is nr Minot to move east into the RRV after midnight. Breezy and cooler Saturday with risk of a few showers or t-storms in NW MN.
/issued 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ High pressure aloft will result in VFR conditions across the terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level high pressure ridge still centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley continues to keep a sinking upper level airmass over the area. Daytime heating will form scattered low clouds, but none are expected to break the cap of stability caused by this high pressure area aloft.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Giant ridge across the heart of the country to the Ozarks to gradually propagate southward. Meanwhile, two large-scale upper lows positioned in Canada.
748 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Warmer temperatures and showers today. A strong cold front will blast through the area late Tuesday night, bringing more rain and very strong winds. Scattered/Isolated convection is expected to be ongoing tonight along an advancing cold front in wrn OH. The cold front will be crossing the mountains by Wed morning as a dry slot sharpens aloft across the region. Strong pressure rises behind the cold front and impressive cold air advection only add to concerns that wind advisories/warnings will be needed late tonight and Wednesday morning.
Feel the daytime high temperatures are on track even with some of the models going a bit warmer than what is in the current forecast. A warm front will bring overcast mid and high level clouds to the area this afternoon but cloud bases will remain VFR. The thermal trough pattern is weakening, and winds and seas will lower today as high pressure builds over the area.
A cool but dry airmass over the area today will yield to warmer and increasingly moist conditions for the latter half of the week. High pressure will bring clear skies to the entire CWA today. Cold temperatures to start today with many areas in the low to mid 20s.
Warm and moist air is trying to return to the forecast area ahead of an Ozarks low pressure system.
Subsident northwest flow has enveloped all of SE Arizona this morning as troughing exits into the plains and flat ridging builds over the eastern Pacific.
This afternoon winds will begin to diminish ahead of an approaching cold front with lowering ceilings again tonight. /issued 432 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Upper level trough is moving over Baja California and will move into Central Texas late today. Ahead of the front today temperatures will warm up well above normal in the low to mid 90s along and west of Interstate 69-E. An isolated wind gust may approach 40 mph in the lower RGV, but we should be under Wind Advisory criteria today as the low-level jet weakens slightly.
Strong cold front is pushing its way through the forecast area today and currently sits just northwest of I-44. MVFR ceilings this morning will improve to VFR this afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Will not mention any precipitation today due to the low probability of occurrence at any given site. Surface warm front is just north of the KS/OK border early this morning. Winds drop off tonight and excellent radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the lower 20s across northeast Oklahoma to lower 30s farther south.
Also updated winds elsewhere today - and added blowing dust briefly behind cold front mostly dissipating around midday. /issued 611 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ Cold front moving through the Panhandle will arrive at the terminals not long after sunrise. /issued 255 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ As of 3 am the cold front was currently across southern Kansas and is expected to enter the CWA around 12Z and clear the southern counties by 18Z.
1146 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 High pressure over the region will move eastward today as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. This will keep above normal temperatures and dry weather in place today with a cold front crossing the area Wednesday along with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
703 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Have expanded Winter Weather Advisory south to include much of Interstate 80 corridor and a county or so south as freezing drizzle had become more widespread and causing traffic problems.
MVFR ceilings this morning will improve to VFR this afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Will not mention any precipitation today due to the low probability of occurrence at any given site. Surface warm front is just north of the KS/OK border early this morning. Winds drop off tonight and excellent radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the lower 20s across northeast Oklahoma to lower 30s farther south.
High pressure will build east of the Florida peninsula through tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will push south of the area Wednesday trailed by high pressure building northwest of the region Wednesday night and increased northerly flow.
Otherwise mostly sunny conditions today with highs ranging from the lower 40s west to the mid 20s east. Dynamic upper trough that brought heavy snow to most of southern Montana and northern Wyoming was sliding across eastern zones early this morning. Highs today will be warmer, but held down by fresh snow cover. Should have a better shot at warmer air on Wednesday with persistent downslope flow and increasing 850mb temperatures.
A weak upper level ridge combined with clear skies and light winds will bring cool morning temperatures followed by warm and dry conditions this afternoon. High clouds will increase during the day ahead of the a warm front which will approach the Oregon and Washington coasts this evening. Models indicate a slight chance to chance for light precipitation over the area tonight and Wednesday morning as this warm front moves inland to the north. However, moisture is expected to be limited in the lower layers so precipitation may be light across most areas. Expect the warm front to lift north and a weak ridge to build into the area Wedensday afternoon.
/issued 541 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ Temperatures are definitely starting out warmer than yesterday. Lafayette, Alexandria, Jasper all were warmer as well. Things are heating up across the central and southern plains today as a vigorous Upper level trough is digging into the central plains and appears to be syncing up with a Baja trough. This will definitely create a lot of instability today with a warm cap aloft keeping the energy pinned in for the approaching cold front tonight.
Previous Discussion: High pressure moving into Montana this morning is pushing snow to the east. High pressure moves into the plains today, with lee trof developing across central Montana. Moisture will begin streaming through the northwest flow as ridge builds along the west coast. Another potential potent storm system will cross Montana over the weekend as upper trof moves through the northern Rockies. A weak weather disturbance moving through the ridge with some moisture associated with it is forecast to bring some isold to sct light snow showers to central mt, perhaps reaching as far north as Petroleum County with some MVFR conds associated with the showers from 09z to 15z.
A cold front will sweep into the region yielding widespread shra/tsra tonight, thus each site features such with timing based upon CAMs.
The clearer skies and sun will definitely prime the atmosphere before the very strong cold front moves across the mid south this evening and overnight. The freezing level at 18Z should be around 11K ft and going up a bit to 12K around 21Z. Being the mid south with a very strong cold front moving through also can/t rule out a few weak brief spin ups. Cigs look to be VFR for most of the day before the approaching cold front and strong thunderstorms approach for this evening.
801 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A warm front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity as it lifts northward today. A low pressure center will cross east through northern Ohio this evening, trailing a cold front that will have a line of thunderstorms race eastward through the Ohio Valley.
H100-H70 anticyclone axis extending from Bermuda into the NE GOMex as become a little better organized, resulting in a steady 10-15KT SErly breeze acrs the FL Peninsula. Atlc anticyclone will maintain weak dynamic/thermodynamic conditions over central FL this aftn.
611 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Cold front moving through the Panhandle will arrive at the terminals not long after sunrise. /issued 255 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ As of 3 am the cold front was currently across southern Kansas and is expected to enter the CWA around 12Z and clear the southern counties by 18Z.
Mostly clear skies across the region early this morning as yesterday's trough shifts east through the northern Rockies. Current temperatures are mostly running around 4-8 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 20s in the mountain valleys to the mid 40s to mid 50s across the Central Valley. Mild temperatures will continue across the region today and Wednesday as weak upper ridging returns.
Aloft, broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, cold front has moved into the Ohio Valley and northwest wind is advecting dry air into the mid Mississippi Valley.
Light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are gradually shifting east as the higher mean level CAPEs axis 250-500 J/KG area expands eastward as well as a slight eastward shift of the upper jet. Prefer the higher resolution model over the SREF and have went hourly POPs through the day tomorrow with this guidance. Monday night the last vort lobe to wrap around the 500mb closed low which has been anchored over Hudson Bay will bring showers to the area overnight.
1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 At H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and over the Desert Southwest. Closed low over the western plains of Canada. Closed low over the Great Lakes. With cloud cover temperatures should hold in the low 50s east and southwest and the upper 40s northwest. Secondary wave rotates around Great Lakes low diving across northern plains on Monday with temperatures similar to todays highs in the 70s north and the low 80s south with cold air advection continuing over north central Nebraska.