Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high wind warning remains in effect until midnight tonight for the Rocky Mountain Front, eastern Glacier and Toole Counties. Decided to cancel the high wind warning farther south and east as the environment no longer supports widespread strong, gusty winds. Expect mountain obscuration due to clouds and precipitation along the Continental Divide and the higher terrain of Southwest MT as a weather disturbance moves eastward from the Pac NW to eastern MT.
346 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
Winds become more easterly as high pressure shifts into the Atlantic waters tonight. High pressure over the region will gradually shift east into the Atlantic waters today veering ne winds to the east by Saturday.
Breezy and warmer today as high pressure moves away and southerly flow develops.
142 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 High pressure over the area will shift off the coast tonight.
Record breaking warmth will overspread portions of eastern Oklahoma on Saturday ahead of the next cold front. Any wildfires will have to contend with a wind shift Sat night as the cold front sweeps through the region.
Latest short term model blends suggest the surface cold front will move into central Kansas early Saturday morning, stretching roughly along the highway 54 corridor by midday. This should allow southern Kansas to warm rapidly ahead of the front during the late morning and early afternoon, as the cooler air advects south across central Kansas behind the front. The spirit of the going forecast seems on track, though a slightly slower or faster frontal passage would impact temperature trends and potential highs, most likely between the highway 50 and 54 corridors.
Another warm day is expected Saturday as low level flow trends slightly more southwest in advance of our next cold front.
335 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Good radiational cooling will take place this evening with high pressure promoting clear and dry conditions. Winds, however, will begin to pick up along the high terrain after sunset -- and across the rest of the area after midnight as a LLJ cranks up over Middle TN. These lows will also be warmer than our normal daily highs.
A warm front will lift northward tonight into Tuesday.
1042 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Currently - Moderate to fresh east breezes are present across the Keys area due to a ~1035 mb high pressure cell off the mid Atlantic Coast. The incoming maritime airmass is letting temperatures only slowly fall into the mid 70s with dew points up in the lower 70s. This will keep overnight lows struggling to fall beyond the mid 70s and dew points will linger in the lower 70s. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes persist on Keys waters due to a high pressure system off of the mid Atlantic Coast.
A frontal boundary which had started out moving northward this morning as a warm front.
The cold front will make its push through the region Tuesday evening.
519 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 A slight chance for -sn remains in the forecast this evening for Sheridan county ahead of an upper trough moving across Wyoming. A cold front will also move into northwest Nebraska this evening, and push through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. The advancement of the cold front from the west will end the fog from west to east overnight, with no fog expected after 12z Tuesday. Cooler H85 temperatures behind the front from 0C to -5C will reduce highs Tuesday to the lower to mid 30s northwest, to near 40 across the southeast.
The current satellite water vapor image is showing the associated trough of low pressure sliding through the Great Basin placing Utah and Colorado in moist southwesterly flow. Over the next 18 to 24 hours the 1800Z GFS is showing a 150 kt jetstream passing over head while at the surface a cold front is expected to push southwest overnight. These conditions support gusty southwesterly winds which may be strong at times, especially over the higher terrain through this evening. Both models quickly build a broad ridge of high pressure over the the Western CONUS behind the departing system which is impacting our area Today. This broad ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather and a modest warming trend for the second half of the week.
High pressure will build across the region into mid-week with dry weather.
The high clouds will retard surface warming a bit Tuesday, but any mixing will tap into stronger flow aloft by late morning. We are retaining the High Wind Watch. Also retaining a mention of light sprinkles northwest late in the day with approach of the upper trough and minor instability and mid level saturation.
530 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017 A trough of low pressure over the region will slowly move east through Tuesday.
A cold front is stalled from roughly Dallas to Alexandria to Mobile this afternoon. Temperatures in central LA just north of the front are in the 60s while across the East TX Lakes and South LA temps are in the low 80s to mid 70s. Tonight into tomorrow a stronger short wave will move across the Rockies allowing low pressure to form in the plains.
A warm front will lift NE into the area overnight with a mid level impulse moving across the region. The warm front will race NE Tuesday with mid trop NVA developing across the area Tuesday morning, early afternoon. Timing best chances will be very difficult that far out and ahead of a cold front to our west.
527 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 A warm front is currently located over northeastern SD and into west central MN where temps have warmed into the upper 30s and mid 40s. A few models are showings a tongue of warmer air aloft in the SE portion of the CWA where freezing rain is possible. Models soundings suggest any freezing rain will be brief with only minor accumulations expected. Will hold off on headlines as the confidence in freezing rain is low.
For tonight, the dryline will retreat back to the west, to just west of our area by Tuesday morning due to surface pressure falls, ahead of a strong upper level trough over the Southern Rockies. 21 (Tuesday Night through next Monday) The upper level trough will move east across the central and southern Plains Tuesday night. A Pacific cold front will push east across our area early Tuesday night, overtaking a partially retreating dryline. A secondary cold front will advance south of the Red River and into our northern counties toward morning.
906 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. Have removed all PoPs and put in sprinkles across the north, right along the warm front. Temperature expectations overnight will likely be modulated by the exact interval and longevity of clearing with the low temperature forecast gradated from cooler east and warmer south as a result.
639 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Drying trend likely through most of the taf period with light rain at KCHA mainly after 06z ahead of warm front moving north overnight. Better confidence of rain moving in from 18Z-00Z Tuesday afternoon as warm front moves across east Tennessee from south to north.
After midnight winds are expected to veer to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph as a cold front approaches. Low temperatures generally in the low 20s west to low 30 east. The cold front moves through Tuesday morning with north winds increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range with some higher gusts during the late morning through afternoon hours.
Increasing southerly winds will occur as the warm front shifts farther north through Tuesday so cigs will lift and scatter out during the afternoon with VFR returning.
Seems like a gradual shift to warmer temperatures after tonight's lows. Southwest upper flow on the leading side of an upper trough centered over the Pacific Northwest will prevail across northeast Montana tonight and Tuesday with scattered light snow showers at times over the area.
224 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017 A few snow showers may linger into tonight and early Tuesday, especially north of Interstate 80 where a fast moving trough of low pressure will swing through tonight.
Where the sun was shining, temperatures pushed into the lower and middle 60s.
The 12Z upper air charts and water vapor satellite imagery highlight a broad trough that extends from Idaho through central California into the Pacific. with mid level moisture ahead of this trough. The h85 observations detailed h85 dewpoints across TX and OK and KOUN showed saturated conditions in the lowest 2500ft. The low level jet strengthens to 45 or 50kts. Do have some fog and light precipitation mentioned in the vicinity of the low and the precipitation initially is liquid. and could warm into the lower 60s at Falls City.
Low pressure currently organizing in the lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado will track northeastward into the Great Lakes over the next 24-36 hours. As the low begins to approach, a warm front will lift northward into central Illinois tonight. Given decent synoptic lift and relatively low freezing levels, a few of the storms late tonight into early Tuesday morning could produce small hail. The low and its associated cold front will not arrive across Illinois until Tuesday night: however, one or more broken lines of storms may form well ahead of the front beginning late Tuesday afternoon. The higher probability for stronger wind gusts and very large hail is located along the I-70 corridor, but with as much deep layer shear and instability present over all of our forecast area, all modes of severe weather will be likely.
950 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Return flow around high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring milder air into the region through the middle of the week.
Flow aloft will transition southwesterly ahead of an upper trough moving into the northern and central Rockies. Short term models are consistent with the low clouds lifting north and east overnight with our eastern zones along the edge of the low cloud cover. The cold front moves through right away in the morning with cool air advection more prominent in our northwest zones during the day and have backed off on high temperatures. Conditions dry out out overnight Tuesday night behind the departing trough axis. The pattern aloft transitions to a northwest flow regime and at the surface, high pressure builds east of the high plains.
Axis of jet is fcst to shift a bit further south late tonight so snow should increase in mtn areas along I-70 as well and continue into Tue as main upper level trough moves across so will include zn 34 as well. Initially this afternoon, the upper level trof is over the Great Basin with a strong southwest flow aloft. Snow showers are increasing over the mountains this afternoon but webcams showing snow mainly over the higher terrain and not much happening on valley floors. Will maintain these areas with the higher chances of snowfall. Gusts of up to 60 mph should occur down the east slopes of the Front Range mountains, foothills and along the Cheyenne Ridge. An additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected over the high mountains.
719 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Return flow around high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring milder air into the region through the middle of the week.
654 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 High pressure offshore will result in onshore flow today.
A trough of low pressure will slowly move out of the Great Basin tonight and tomorrow, taking the chance for showers along with it.
Dropped rain chances until late in the night as warm front begins to move back north from near the Gulf Coast toward southeast Tennessee.
But the lower levels remain fairly warm which will likely melt much of the snow. High pressure is expected to settle over the area through the end of the work week.
505 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 This afternoon with plenty of moisture from the Gulf in combination with a warm front that extended from South Central Oklahoma across Northeast and East Texas and into Northwest Louisiana and into North Central Louisiana near a Paris to Mount Pleasant, Texas and Minden to Ruston, Louisiana line. This boundary was shown on visible satellite data as the edge of the lower clouds was noted. Showers and thunderstorms were developing in the warm sector in wake of the boundary and with the low level jet spreading Northeast into the area and into the surface boundary, convection is expected to continue.
A warm front is currently located over northeastern SD and into west central MN where temps have warmed into the upper 30s and mid 40s. A few models are showings a tongue of warmer air aloft in the SE portion of the CWA where freezing rain is possible. Models soundings suggest any freezing rain will be brief with only minor accumulations expected. Will hold off on headlines as the confidence in freezing rain is low.
A low pressure system will move east of the area tonight.
High pressure east of the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to ridge southwest over the southeast U. High pressure moving across the Atlantic will ridge back to the Gulf waters through about midweek.
Latest observational and regional sounding data suggests increasing elevated instability across much of the region with increasing elevated CAPE after midnight as a surface warm front across the Gulf Coast surges northward.
Showery to rainy conditions will span west to east today and tonight as the upper trough moves through the region. Dry conditions and much warmer temperatures will return for the latter half of the week. 5 inches over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix, appear to be most likely at this point. A return to low-amplitude/broad ridging will occur later this week, and usher in a warming trend to above-normal temperatures.
725 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Return flow around high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring milder air into the region through the middle of the week.
To the northwest, cooler and drier air will result in more typical lows - upper 20s to lower 30s. For tomorrow, a strong cold front traverse the region from the morning into the early afternoon hours. For precipitation, not looking very impressive with a progressive trof moving through and much drier air advecting in from the NW. The low chance pops look good for now.
The system did not have much QPF, and time-heights kept the lower levels relatively dry through the night so general chance PoPs seemed reasonable. More energy in the trough will bring additional snow showers to the region for Tuesday.
More elevated convection is expected for late evening and overnight as a warm front lifts northward through the region and a southwesterly low level jet brings increasing temperature and moisture advection to the area. Most of this convection should shift east of our forecast area by Tuesday morning, followed by the low level cloudiness breaking up. May see the redevelopment of convection by late Tuesday afternoon, particularly across northeast MO and west central IL as a strong cold front approaches, although the atmosphere should be initially capped over the warm sector. Still some uncertainty as to where and when convection will initially fire south of the cold front Tuesday afternoon into the evening with varying model solutions.
Increasing southerly winds will occur as the warm front shifts farther north through Tuesday so cigs will lift and scatter out during the afternoon with VFR returning. /issued 505 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/ This afternoon with plenty of moisture from the Gulf in combination with a warm front that extended from South Central Oklahoma across Northeast and East Texas and into Northwest Louisiana and into North Central Louisiana near a Paris to Mount Pleasant, Texas and Minden to Ruston, Louisiana line. This boundary was shown on visible satellite data as the edge of the lower clouds was noted. Showers and thunderstorms were developing in the warm sector in wake of the boundary and with the low level jet spreading Northeast into the area and into the surface boundary, convection is expected to continue.
555 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 At 3 PM, southerly winds, ahead of a developing low pressure system over northeast Colorado, were found across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. 12z models are in fairly good agreement that both the moisture and warm air advection will increase this evening and overnight ahead of a short wave trough moving out of the Central Plains. However, we will have to watch the dew points closely tonight, because they could result in the rain starting out as freezing rain in areas where the dew points remain below freezing.
A broad area of low pressure over the area will continue at least mountain top-obscuring snow in the mountains.
The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front, formed mainly by widespread, strong evaporative cooling and cloudy skies this afternoon across central AL, MS, and GA, extended from Tifton, GA through Panama City, FL. In the upper levels, there was a short wave trough over our forecast area, moving quickly eastward in the nearly zonal flow over the Gulf Coast region. The western edge of the rain band associated with the stalling surface front and trough aloft was near the AL-GA border, and will likely exit our forecast area and/or diminish by 1 am EST.
Strong cold front will arrive late in the forecast causing surface winds to shift to north at GUY. /Issued 218 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/ Upper level trough stretches from Idaho into Southern California this afternoon. This trough is expected to swing east overnight tonight and will be emerging onto the high plains by late Tuesday afternoon. This intense low coupled with the strong winds aloft associated with the upper trough should bring strong winds especially to the western and southern Texas Panhandle where a High Wind Watch has been issued. However, winds may stay up in the 20 to 30 mph range behind a cold front that will sweep south behind the upper trough. A few rain showers would not be out of the question, mainly across the Oklahoma Panhandle in association with the cold front.
619 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. Temperature expectations overnight will likely be modulated by the exact interval and longevity of clearing with the low temperature forecast gradated from cooler east and warmer south as a result.
The highest precipitation totals are still expected across the southern half of Mohave County (over 1" possible in some areas). A cold front will push south across the area tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing drier conditions in its wake.
526 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 A cold front will move east of the state tonight. Weak high pressure builds over the region through Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be from the lower 50s to lower 60.
948 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017 Isolated showers have recently re-developed near the Red River north of diffuse warm front, which still appears to be across north Texas per latest obs. The better chances of severe weather will come late Tuesday afternoon in the far eastern part of the forecast area and again later Tuesday evening to the southeast of Interstate 44 as the cold front moves across the area. Any storm that can get going late Tuesday afternoon will have the potential to produce all modes of severe weather, with damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado the main risk with the later storms along the cold front.
1030 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Return flow around high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring milder air into the region through the middle of the week.
For tomorrow, a mid/level trough with a 90+ knot mid-level jet will eject into the Southern Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected with a low-level thermal ridge in place. A cold front will pass by tomorrow evening into tomorrow night with gusty northerly winds.
These showers/TS will likely stick around through the morning and early afternoon hours and while the rain will let up by mid-afternoon, the lower flight categories probably won't.
Again, much like this morning, thinking the lower clouds will be more prevalent than fog as the winds will remain strong enough to keep it from being anything more than patchy. This will ultimately help to scour out the lower clouds as the morning inversion breaks and allows for better downward momentum transfer to occur. This may pose a few elevated fire weather issues across the Southern Coastal Bend as temperatures climb into the low-90s, even with dewpoints in the mid-60s. Fog could pose more of an issue with a bit less in the way of surface mixing, the high moisture content, and an approaching frontal boundary.
757 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017 A trough of low pressure over the region will slowly move east through Tuesday.
A short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama later tonight. The rain will lift northward by early afternoon Tuesday as a warm front lifts into the Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama, so minimal activity expected in the afternoon.
The better chances of severe weather will come late Tuesday afternoon in the far eastern part of the forecast area and again later Tuesday evening to the southeast of Interstate 44 as the cold front moves across the area. Any storm that can get going late Tuesday afternoon will have the potential to produce all modes of severe weather, with damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado the main risk with the later storms along the cold front.
251 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level ridge wl remain centered over the central U. High temps on Tue are forecast to be around average in the high valleys, and about five degrees above average ovr the sern plains. Cooler by the Weekend.
Some of the HRRR output indicates that it will continue to dissipate by 5 PM, as the outflow pushes into a warmer air mass aloft. The 12Z models continue to amplify the mid/upper-level ridge through the Plains Tuesday which will put our region in stronger northwest flow. Although there will be weak surface ridging over the region by the end of the day Tuesday, it remains to be seen how much if any cool and dry advection there will be into the northeast portions of the region.
The upper ridge center currently over Srn AR/N LA this afternoon will shift NW into OK/AR Tuesday. The short term progs are hinting at a weakness aloft that will round the ern periphery of the ridge from the Mid-South SW into the region Tuesday. temps look to be degree or so warmer. with the high PW air inhibiting the extent of mixing through the day.
350 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Below average temperatures continue into mid-week as a low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest. The trough will begin to weaken over the next several dats as the strong high over the central US gradually expands north and west. Tuesday looks just a little warmer than today, with Valley highs still mainly in the 80s.
We still have a warm and moist airmass ahead of the cold front, but this is now confined along the iroquois basin where a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg of mixed layer cape exists per rap analysis which is likely slightly overdone. The This high will remain in control for Tuesday.
Temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 90s, with heat indices between 100-105 degrees across much of the CWA. This may result in an uptick in diurnal convective coverage across the Mid-South, favoring the eastern half of the CWA where the influence of the subtropical ridge will be weaker.
243 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Models are pretty similar with the overall pattern of the H5 ridge building over the central part of the national keep the CWA in a weak northwest flow. Max temps are expected to be a little warmer Tuesday however dewpoints will be low enough to keep heat index values from reaching advisory criteria. 17 Little change in the overall pattern is expected by mid week as a broad sub-tropical ridge of high pressure sits over the central and southern Plains. Georgia and the Southeast region will continue to be on the eastern periphery of the High - in an area where any one given upper level disturbance can enhance diurnally-driven (afternoon and evening) showers and thunderstorms.