Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It's worth noting, however, that hi-res CAM guidance has backed off on QPF amounts and have shifted the highest totals further south. This boundary will act as the focus for convective rainfall rates and locally heavy rainfall with the highest totals shifted south along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will continue to be held in check by extensive cloud cover and precipitation with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s and afternoon high temperatures tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s.
225 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 At the start of the forecast period today, an upper air trough resides over the CWA leaving westerly flow aloft. Tonight, the westerly flow continues as the trough slowly makes progress eastward. Overnight lows for the CWA expect to range between the middle 20s to the lower 30s. On Saturday, forecast guidance shows the upper air flow turn northerly during the day and then northwesterly going into the night as the trough moves eastward away from the CWA with another trough descending southward from Canada towards the CWA. Daytime high temperatures expect to range from the lower 40s in the western parts of the CWA to the lower 50s in the eastern parts. Overnight lows in the lower to upper 20s range can be expected.
(This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, the cold front was along the I-10 corridor and will be south of the far southern counties shortly after 3 PM.
We got off to a chilly start this morning with low temperatures dipping into the lower 30s across much of the area. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure dominating the region as satellite reveals mostly clear skies across southern Indiana and central KY. High temperatures of 55-60 will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal but winds will be light with a fairly flat surface pressure pattern.
Saturday is looking like a good day to enjoy outdoors with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 50s.
422 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 After a chilly start to the morning with lows in the lower to mid 30s, temperatures have rebounded nicely this afternoon into the mid 50s and lower 60s. Under increased sky coverage, high temperatures for the day will remain cooler than today, topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A complex upper level pattern currently exists with zonal flow across the southeastern US with a series of 3 lows/troughs across the mid latitude of the country. The middle of those 3 troughs is currently east of the Rockies and will track through the Central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley this evening and tonight. This will bring a cold front into the CWA tonight and slowly through the forecast area on Saturday afternoon. Am less certain that by this time it will be much more than light to occasionally moderate rain due to the flatness of the trough.
101 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level low is moving east into the central plains early this morning. The cold front and westerly surface winds ahead of it, should help scour out the low clouds and fog by late morning or early afternoon. The cold front that has been advertised for several days now looks to move through the area faster than previously thought, making its way through the entire forecast area by mid afternoon, as opposed to tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s behind the cold front tonight. An upper level low currently west of the northern Baja peninsula will move across the area tonight, bringing mid and upper level clouds with it, but have left the forecast dry for now with dry low level air moving in behind the front.
238 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Upper trough over the Great Plains will swing east today as a secondary lobe extends back to NV.
345 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through Saturday.
355 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 1000-500mb geopotential height rises due to a combination of differential cyclonic vorticity advection and modest mid to upper level confluence has resulted in background forcing favorable for subsidence and surface ridging over Southeast Michigan. Did lower readings a degree or two based on some relatively cooler temperatures residing at the top of the mixed layer.
Otherwise, models indicate the Plains trough will drift across the area on Saturday, in a weakening mode as it encounters confluent flow over the east parts of the country.
151 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Early morning showers across EC Kansas and WC/SW Missouri this morning seem to be rooted in the mid levels as opposed to the lower levels. In the post cold frontal environment on Saturday with a mid level low moving through the area there appears to be good enough low level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft to produce some fairly vigorous convective updrafts capable of some isolated thunderstorms Saturday.
Light scattered showers and isolated thunder possible in the higher elevations of Lincoln County and the Sierra this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunder is possible through Lincoln County and northern Mohave County as an upper level low over Utah skirts the area.
Tonight and Saturday Quiet conditions are expected through this forecast period as a broad area of high pressure remains over the forecast area. Low will be slightly below normal ranging from the lower to middle 20s in north-central and far northeast WI, to the upper 20s to lower 30s in central and east- central WI.
The upper level pattern is dominated by a nor'easter off the coast of Maine, with a large trough over the Central Plains. The large trough, currently over Nebraska, is expected to push through the region late tonight into tomorrow afternoon. This will bring the highest chance of rain to the region. Rain will lift out of the area by Saturday late morning, as the main trough pushes east of the region. Saturday will be cool again with highs in the low to mid 60s with partly sunny skies by the afternoon hours.
At the surface, high pressure is and will remain across the northern plains with ridging well southeast of this high center, and into the midsouth. Guidance continues to dry out the forecast with the possibility that much of Saturday afternoon is dry with the exception of the higher terrain and parts of southwest Virginia. Extensive cloud cover may keep temperatures cooler with highs only in the low to mid 60s.
For this weekend, the slightly cooler than normal pattern will continue as a couple of weak systems zip by in quasi- zonal flow aloft.
220 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 A dry backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region tonight.
204 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will gradually build overhead through Saturday.
A weak low level thermal trough will prevail. Overall 500 millibar open wave tracks to our south while weak ridging is to reside across WI.
Per forecast soundings/time-height sections, the lower ceilings impacting the bulk of the forecast area at this time are expected to continue (or in the case of the Acadiana terminals, develop) through the period with all locations eventually lowering to IFR/LIFR. thereafter, expecting convection to become a bigger issue closer to this evening, then continue into the overnight hours when the cold front sweeps into the area. Although cold front will be moving through the area late tonight, will likely have post frontal shower activity especially over southern areas.
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 355 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Slow moving low pressure over New England will cause occasional light rain and snow into tonight, with a gradual improvement in conditions later tonight and Saturday.
1142 AM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Moisture continued to wrap around the area of low pressure across Moab into southwest Colorado early this morning as the low moves into the central Plains by sunrise. The main trough that has been hanging over much of the central and eastern parts of the country will try to pinch off a low over the Four Corners area by Saturday as this western extent gets squeezed underneath a ridge of high pressure trying to build out west along the eastern Pacific coast.
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 226 PM CDT There are no significant weather concerns through the period, with generally dry and seasonable weather expected through the weekend, though with some cloud cover and cooler afternoon lake breezes. However, a lake breeze shifting inland over northeastern IL and northwesterly Illinois is resulting in much cooler conditions near the lake. Expect temperatures on Saturday to be similar to those of today, with readings topping out near 60 for inland areas, but remaining much cooler near the lake due to another day of onshore winds.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s across the island chain with dewpoints near 70 degrees. We are currently under the influence of high pressure, which has allowed for dry air to keep our rain chances near nil.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 63 46 67 44 / 30 40 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 60 45 65 43 / 20 40 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 61 43 65 41 / 20 40 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 58 42 62 40 / 0 40 20 20 10.
Northerly surface flow will keep temperatures much cooler than normal this evening and into tomorrow. With some cloud cover clearing this evening, there is the potential for some areas in northwest OK to reach near or below freezing tomorrow morning.
153 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Semi-permanent upper flow showing a closed upper high over the Pacific NW/BC this afternoon with a weak positively tilted trough from western Ontario to the Great Basin.
1010 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 A weak ridge was noted over the western Atlantic generally east of Georgia and South Carolina. Light southerly breezes became light and variable especially over the Lower Keys and western waters as a seabreeze influence spread from the northern Cuban coast into the Straits. Aloft, flow was mostly zonal at 500 mb with the deep upper ridging well south over the Yucatan and adjacent northwest Caribbean. This should allow for some locally cooler temperatures from the nominal 74-75 suggested by statistical guidance. From synopsis, The Florida Keys are in the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure located east of the Bahamas.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 65 46 67 46 / 30 30 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 63 45 65 44 / 20 30 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 63 44 65 45 / 20 30 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 60 42 63 40 / 10 20 20 20 10.
652 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 226 PM CDT There are no significant weather concerns through the period, with generally dry and seasonable weather expected through the weekend, though with some cloud cover and cooler afternoon lake breezes. However, a lake breeze shifting inland over northeastern IL and northwesterly Illinois is resulting in much cooler conditions near the lake. Expect temperatures on Saturday to be similar to those of today, with readings topping out near 60 for inland areas, but remaining much cooler near the lake due to another day of onshore winds.
Forecast is in good shape for the overnight hours as we await the departure of the stationary low pressure system over Cape Cod.
/issued 238 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ Cool surface ridging continues to build into West Texas this afternoon in the wake of a storm system ejecting across Kansas and Nebraska. The coolest temperatures, in the lower to middle 30s, will occur across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Should clearing be more widespread than expected and winds diminish greater than anticipated, most spots on the Caprock could approach the freezing mark. By tomorrow night a highly positively tilted upper trough will slowly push southward across the Four Corners region, a process that is currently expected to take most of the weekend.
551 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 H5 trough continues to drop southward today, with only very light snow showers bubbling up in places, but not dropping much of anything. Models continue to bring weak high pressure into the region briefly tonight into the weekend, with a modest moderating trend on Saturday back into the 40s.
Dry and warm conditions continue across the region into the weekend as upper level high pressure remains in place.
645 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Upper low is located along the NE/KS border south of the Hastings area this afternoon. Cold conveyor of moisture continues to wrap westward into western and north central Nebraska to the northwest of the low. Paved road surface are all just wet this afternoon as temperatures are above freezing. Earlier today locally heavy accumulations did occur, and were highly dependent on elevation as temperatures generally remained at or just above freezing. The upper low will move eastward overnight and precipitation will end this evening.
557 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Elongated mid/upper trough was situated over the Central Plains.
Low level ridging and dry air will delay rainfall somewhat this evening into the overnight. We will carry increasing PoPs from west to east, with the western counties having the highest and earliest chance of light rain.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Evening/ All of North and Central Texas has made it into the cool sector as today's cold front has reached South Central and Southeast Texas. /Issued 244 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ /Saturday Night Onward/ High pressure will begin to build across the region in the wake of today's cold front.
A short wave trough dropping south out of Canada tonight will bring the chance for some rain to our western most counties tonight, but the precipitation will be light with only a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain. Lows tonight will fall into the 30s, with some areas of west central Wisconsin falling to freezing or slightly below. Saturday will be similar to today with highs in the mid to upper 50s, except a little cooler out west where the clouds hang in a little better.
Another surface boundary is expected to move across the region tonight bringing north winds and an end to the shower activity in the early morning, although the low ceilings around IFR levels are expected to stick around through the morning.
A cold front extending from near Vinita to Okemah at this time will continue moving southeast across the area, with increasing northerly winds in its wake.
Expect an increase in cloud cover tonight which may keep morning low temperatures a degree or two warmer than guidance.
411 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 A short wave trough dropping south out of Canada tonight will bring the chance for some rain to our western most counties tonight, but the precipitation will be light with only a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain. Lows tonight will fall into the 30s, with some areas of west central Wisconsin falling to freezing or slightly below. Saturday will be similar to today with highs in the mid to upper 50s, except a little cooler out west where the clouds hang in a little better.
High pressure will center over Lake MI for the afternoon with a lake breeze expected to move inland once again beginning by late morning. Cool temps in the lower to middle 30s at sunrise Sat AM will rise well into the 50s inland with 40s near the lake. A weak low level thermal trough will prevail. Overall 500 millibar open wave tracks to our south while weak ridging is to reside across WI.
426 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 The upper low is crossing the central Great Plains at this time, as it begins to phase back into the main flow.
You can see the secondary trough axis on water vapor stretching over central Wyoming and is projected to push into Colorado through the morning hours tomorrow. Light, scattered snow showers will continue on Saturday, mainly for the higher elevations with little additional accumulation expected. Temperatures will struggle to warm initially but could still reach into the lower to mid-40s on the plains and 20s to 30s in the high country. The models move a secondary trough axis north to south tonight through Saturday as it splits into the Great Basin. Low broken to overcast cloud cover will linger overnight, with warmer temperatures back into the mid 40s Saturday, warmer than today but still cooler than normal. For Saturday evening, could see a few snow showers linger into the early evening over the higher terrain south of I-70, otherwise dry conditions are expected.
Many higher elevation sites are seeing temperatures right about 32 degrees, so there may be some slick spots as temperatures gradually fall below freezing with wet conditions overnight.
Scattered showers along with areas of drizzle creating varying conditions between IFR to MVFR will continue across the CWA this evening ahead of a surface boundary/cold front currently pushing into Northeast Oklahoma. Behind the eastward moving cold front north to northwest winds and conditions becoming mainly IFR to possibly LIFR are forecast tonight into Saturday morning.
An upper level low was very slowly progressing east across northern Kansas today, appearing to become less organized as the day has progressed. Currently there was a focused area for ascent on the eastern flank of this low from eastern KS into Nebraska and Iowa. Later tonight it does appear that the precipitation will intensify a bit and expand in coverage on the northern flank of the upper low center as it passes by. Meanwhile, another vorticity maxima intensifies and dives down the west side of the long wave trough, bringing a period of focused lift to the area on Saturday.
816 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Mostly IFR/LIFR conditions will continue to prevail across the terminals through the overnight hours, as a cold front makes its way sewd across the region. Saturday should be quite pleasant across the area, with afternoon temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below normal as highs will top out in the lower to upper 60s. Temperatures on Saturday night will fall into the lower to upper 40s across the area.
With strong high pressure and a dry airmass expect clear skies will continue into Sat.
953 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 A coastal trough is located just off the coast this evening. A surface cold front will be moving across the forecast area overnight and early Saturday, further adding some lift keeping rain chances high, with rain chances decreasing behind the cold front in the morning. The high moisture content to go along with nearly wet and saturated grounds gives some concern to heavy rainfall and flash flood potential. Fortunately instability in the low levels in very limited, and this is helping to keep rainfall rates relatively low. Another surface boundary is expected to move across the region tonight bringing north winds and an end to the shower activity in the early morning, although the low ceilings around IFR levels are expected to stick around through the morning.
324 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 H5 trough continues to drop southward today, with only very light snow showers bubbling up in places, but not dropping much of anything. Models continue to bring weak high pressure into the region briefly tonight into the weekend, with a modest moderating trend on Saturday back into the 40s.
530 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 At the start of the forecast period today, an upper air trough resides over the CWA leaving westerly flow aloft. Tonight, the westerly flow continues as the trough slowly makes progress eastward. Overnight lows for the CWA expect to range between the middle 20s to the lower 30s. On Saturday, forecast guidance shows the upper air flow turn northerly during the day and then northwesterly going into the night as the trough moves eastward away from the CWA with another trough descending southward from Canada towards the CWA. Daytime high temperatures expect to range from the lower 40s in the western parts of the CWA to the lower 50s in the eastern parts. Overnight lows in the lower to upper 20s range can be expected.
An upper level ridge axis will continue to overspread the area tonight, and this will bring us light northwest to north winds (perhaps even a little variable at times), and partly to mostly clear skies. Even with cloud cover, temps still fall into the low 30s for some areas, and the mid 30s elsewhere.
Overnight temperatures will be milder than recent nights, though the cloudy skies will keep the daytime highs on Saturday cooler than on Friday. Forecast has been updated to make some minor adjustments with the timing and placement of the higher PoP's tonight and Saturday morning. An upper low evident on 19z/2pm water vapor imagery along the Nebraska/Kansas border will track E/SE and weaken over the next 24 hours.
MSAS analyses reveal cold front approaching the CWA.
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, the cold front was along the I-10 corridor and will be south of the far southern counties shortly after 3 PM.
A cold front will move across the region this evening bringing elevated northeast winds with gusts. /issued 238 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ Upper trough over the Great Plains will swing east today as a secondary lobe extends back to NV.
432 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Upper low is located along the NE/KS border south of the Hastings area this afternoon. Cold conveyor of moisture continues to wrap westward into western and north central Nebraska to the northwest of the low. Paved road surface are all just wet this afternoon as temperatures are above freezing. Earlier today locally heavy accumulations did occur, and were highly dependent on elevation as temperatures generally remained at or just above freezing. The upper low will move eastward overnight and precipitation will end this evening.
926 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will gradually build overhead through Saturday.
The passage of a weak backdoor cold front with an accompanying wind shift to northeast will then afford renewed stratus development overnight. 1000-500mb geopotential height rises due to a combination of differential cyclonic vorticity advection and modest mid to upper level confluence has resulted in background forcing favorable for subsidence and surface ridging over Southeast Michigan. Did lower readings a degree or two based on some relatively cooler temperatures residing at the top of the mixed layer.
After a chilly start to the morning with lows in the lower to mid 30s, temperatures have rebounded nicely this afternoon into the mid 50s and lower 60s. Under increased sky coverage, high temperatures for the day will remain cooler than today, topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
As 20Z Friday afternoon, an upper low was centered across south- central NE. As the upper low progresses east- southeastward this evening and overnight, the bulk of rainfall should come to an end from west to east. Drizzle may develop overnight as moisture depth drastically decreases with the departing upper low but low level lapse rates steepen through a low-level saturated layer. Otherwise, highs Saturday afternoon will reach the low to mid 50s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 46 67 46 72 / 20 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 45 65 44 69 / 20 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 44 65 45 70 / 20 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 42 63 40 65 / 20 20 20 10 10.
320 AM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 A cold front moved through the area yesterday bringing cooler temperatures to the area.
The upper level low continues to move to the east of the area today, but another wave will move into the area during the day. High temperatures will continue on the cooler side.
227 AM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Anchored western NOAM ridge will continue to support long trajectory N-S flow over central NOAM.
This activity will continue to drift southward into this morning as the low weakens and the mid-level deformation zone sinks to the south.
An upper level trough currently located from west central through northeast SD will drop south into the area today.