Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main limiting factor will be whether a meso-high develops across the Laramie range which would back the winds to a more SW vector which would limit the high wind potential. Decided to keep those zones out given the higher confidence with the wind vectors remaining in the less than ideal direction. Outside of the high winds, there is a chance for some critical fire weather conditions to develop across the NE panhandle Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary. Mostly dry and windy pattern has remained on track with a prominent northwesterly flow as a blocking ridge of high pressure begins to set up across the western seaboard and a near stationary trough stretching southwesterly across the Great Lakes.
The one exception was across portions of north- central Oklahoma where visible satellite from yesterday afternoon revealed an area of snow cover still hanging on, which should keep highs a few degrees cooler than surrounding areas.
Developing low pressure moving along the East Coast and an approaching dry cold front will bring an increase in clouds to the TAF sites today, but expect to remain VFR.
Building high pressure aloft combined with the offshore flow will bring warm weather this week.
Key west reached a high of 77 degrees this afternoon when the winds were easterly but, when the winds backed to the north, temperatures slowly fell to the lower 70s.
High pressure will rebound Tuesday bringing a prolonged period of mild, dry weather with areas of morning low clouds and fog. Tonight: The weak ridge over the area will flatten. Tuesday: High pressure building off the Coast will begin to build a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Fog and stratus are expected again for the low lying areas but not as widespread as previous mornings.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to just around the freezing mark across the region. Tuesday should be a beautiful day across the region as afternoon highs reach the lower 60s across the region.
Cold front sweeping through the area through the afternoon hours. Cold front is expected to move through the region mid-day Tuesday, with little in the way of cold air behind it.
1141 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 Summary: Warmer weather with some chances of snow and perhaps some mixed precipitation this week. Mostly cloudy skies prevail for most of the region this afternoon due to a combination of an upper level trough passing through and some low-level mixing with cool northwesterly flow. High pressure will pass through tonight and bring some partial clearing, but some weak embedded upper level cyclonic vorticity advection will keep some weak lift around to support some clouds. Warm air advection ahead of an approaching upper level ridge will result in highs in the teens. Going into Tuesday, continued warm air advection ahead of a Canadian clipper will result in some above-freezing high temperatures for Tuesday. As the low pressure center passes by just to our north, some precipitation chances will move in Tuesday afternoon and overnight.
A mid/upper level trough will cross the area, and induce cyclogenesis near the Atlantic coastline, but deep moisture is expected to remain to our east.
A few high clouds will swing through after 18Z-00Z with a dry upper level trough.
Axis of the southern portion of an elongated upper trough will move southeast across our area today. Highs today will be a little cooler than yesterday across our southern and central counties, but about the same up north.
Southwesterly flow aloft remains overhead as a large upper-level trough, located over the central US, continues pushing eastward. By Monday night, deep-layer dry air begins to filter back into the region as the upper-level trough moves across the region. The trough's axis will pass overhead by Tuesday morning, allowing for skies to clear by Tuesday afternoon. With the increase in cloud cover, highs on Monday will stay in the low to mid 50s.
Have adjusted some temps, in the higher valleys, a few degrees lower overnight as well. The trough responsible for a few snow showers in the JeffCo foothills this morning, and a cooler day today, will be well south of Colorado by tonight. 700 mb temps warm 7-9 degC over the course of the day, warming all the way to 0 degC, and with full sun temperatures across the plains should reach the low 50s other than areas that have deeper snowpack like Weld County southeastward through Morgan, eastern Arapahoe/Adams, and Washington Counties. Upper ridging will be in control the weather over northeast and north central Colorado Monday night. A weak upper trough is progged to push across in the northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday.
It will push a weak cold front through the region early Monday. A secondary impulse will ride down the backside of the main upper trough Monday night. You can still see the snow/ice pack in the high temperature grid, but everyone should reach at least the middle 40s with much of the region into the lower 50s. The NBM guidance suggests it will be a rather mild night with a good bit of the area remaining above freezing.
Stronger upr lvl trough will approach Monday which will maintain some moisture across the area.
1012 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary arctic boundary just north and east of the forecast area, with high pressure over the Rockies. Windy conditions are expected on Tuesday as a Pacific cold front tracks across the Northern Plains.
1037 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 (This evening through Monday) An upper level trough continues to become more negatively tilted and elongated, sending a corresponding cold front through the southern plains. With the close proximity of the upper level trough, we may see a few mid to high level clouds overnight but skies in most places should be clear to mostly clear.
349 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds today.
259 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Weak and moisture-starved cold front extends from SBN-CMI-STL, and the stratus deck behind it is much less extensive this far south compared to what's been observed over Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Modest CAA regime will hold our temps back, with parts of southern Indiana just barely cracking the freezing mark while areas south of the Bluegrass Parkway in Kentucky climb into the lower/mid 40s.
1134 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front passed through the area earlier today and winds have been gusty in the wake of the front. Winds decouple quickly this evening, and with the dry air and clear skies expect a cold night, especially in the lower spots like river valleys where teens are anticipated. Upper level ridging will persist along the West Coast through the coming week. Downstream of the ridging across our area expect persistent dry northwest flow aloft to continue.
An upper level ridge remains over the region with quiet weather.
SREF probabilities suggest that freezing temperatures are not expected tonight. Yet, HREF probabilities/NBM suggest that freezing is possible over portions of the northern CWA.
Weak and moisture-starved cold front extends from SBN-CMI-STL, and the stratus deck behind it is much less extensive this far south compared to what's been observed over Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Modest CAA regime will hold our temps back, with parts of southern Indiana just barely cracking the freezing mark while areas south of the Bluegrass Parkway in Kentucky climb into the lower/mid 40s.
644 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds today.
A weak cold front will pass through the area today. Some mid to high level clouds will persist across the southeast counties this evening, but those clouds should exit the region later tonight with the approach of the upper level short wave trof.
Developing low pressure moving along the East Coast and an approaching dry cold front will bring an increase in clouds to the TAF sites today, mainly scattered VFR but broken at times at TRI. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 28 52 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 27 49 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 26 50 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 24 46 28 53 / 10 0 0 0 0.
High pressure situated over the west coast will result in a warming trend throughout the week, with above normal temperatures expected. Temperatures through sunrise are likely to drop some more, especially in the areas that see decoupling, but will be warmer compared to previous nights. The ensemble cluster analysis continues to be in excellent agreement on the overall large-scale synoptic pattern through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend with the mid-level high pressure expected to remain parked over the west coast.
Clear skies will continue overnight and into tomorrow as high pressure remains stationed over New England. With the high pressure in place, the region has managed to stay relatively mild overnight compared to the last few nights. This trend is progged to continue into Monday as the region stays in the warmer air ahead of a mostly dry cold front. An upper-level low digging out of Canada, which will stay well north of the area , will drag a mostly dry cold front through the area later this afternoon and evening. Eastern Kentucky will be within the return flow side of the high, allowing for the advection of warm air into the area.
Southwesterly flow aloft remains overhead as a large upper-level trough, located over the central US, continues pushing eastward. By tonight, deep-layer dry air begins to filter back into the region as the upper-level trough moves across the region. The trough's axis will pass overhead by Tuesday morning, allowing for skies to clear by Tuesday afternoon. With the increase in cloud cover, highs today will stay in the low to mid 50s.
A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles on Tuesday, but unlike the last one, there won't be much cold air with it.
To start the period, an upper level ridge is centered off the west coast of the US. For that reason I have gone ahead and started the High Wind Warning along the Rocky Mountian Front and the remainder of Glacier county with the update this morning.
Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with temperatures mainly in the low 50s.
Northwest flow aloft persists over the central High Plains region with a number of fast moving short wave troughs expected to move across the region over the next few days.
A warming trend will continue through mid to late week as high pressure strengthens over the region with periods of dry offshore winds. Another quiet morning across the region with slightly warmer and more humid conditions, especially across the North Bay. The expected region-wide warming trend remains on track for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds over the region.
Warmer west wind will move into areas just west of the RRV this aftn with temps approaching 30 or low 30s Langdon to Lisbon/Forman and west. Mixing will be sufficient to bring some of the higher winds to the sfc and thus gusts 40 kts very possible Tuesday morning into early aftn west of the RRV. 500 mb trough moves overhead though Tuesday with pretty steep lapse rates with showalters indicating +2 in E ND. Cold air advection will settle into the region Tuesday evening as troughing over the Canadian prairies shifts eastward.
Our area will remain on the eastern edge of a ridge of high pressure that is forecast to remain in place near the U.
For today, a warm front will nudge its way eastward into our eastern zones by the end of the day. Daytime readings should respond nicely as a westerly breeze kicks in and ridging aloft shifts overhead. Our western zones, including Mobridge and Pierre will have the best shot at seeing mid to upper 50s for highs, perhaps even 60 degrees in some spots. Low pressure will track across southern Canada tonight into Tuesday. Upper troughing sliding across the Dakotas will help to push a cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, certainly cooler than what we'll see today. There just seems to be no end in sight for this west coast/western CONUS upper level ridge.
302 AM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Skies have cleared in the wake of the trough that passed over the forecast area yesterday. The high pressure centered over the West Coast has been gradually nosing eastward into the region. Highs will also be on the rise over the next couple of days under the influence of the ridge.
454 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 A positively tilted longwave trough stretches from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. An amplifying ridge aloft will slide over the region on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to around 0 to 6C over the forecast area. An upper level trough will dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night with a vertically stacked low pressure system stalling over Lake Superior.
The area will remain on the northeastern edge of an area of high pressure centered along the Pacific coast. Only real concern during this period will be for fog/freezing fog overnight and into the early morning hours with overnight temperature inversions likely. Freezing Fog Advisory will continue into the hours after sunrise. Quite likely that we'll see another round of this overnight Monday and into Tuesday so have freezing fog wording mentioned in the forecast for this period as well. Temperatures will likely be on the cooler side of normal the next few days especially if fog/stratus lingers in the valleys longer than forecast.
The upper level trough will shift east through tonight and its axis is expected to be oriented nearly along the Natchez Trace by sunrise. This will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight.
Ridge of high pressure anchored over the West Coast will keep conditions dry and mild, with periodic northerly breezes.
850mb temps around the negative single digits this morning are forecast to increase to the positive single digits today and even a few degrees warmer on Tuesday. Favorable mixing winds should push high temperatures today into the low 50s across western Iowa to near 60 in our west and southwestern counties.
Overall dry weather is anticipated for tonight, and even more so on Tuesday, as the rainfall-inducing 500 mb trough moves through the region and then even farther east across the Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 255 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022/ A sharp upper level trough extending from southern Ontario continues its course southeast across our region early this morning, with surface winds gradually backing from the north to northwest by sunrise. Continued northwest flow aloft and easing surface winds after sunset this evening will produce another cooler than normal overnight into early Tuesday, especially in our northwest zones where lows will drop into the teens, otherwise mid/upper 20s in most other locations. The upper air pattern this week continues to have a strong ridge of high pressure along the west coast and northwest to northerly flow coming down from Canada into the central plains of the U.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis shows an elongated trough across the central portion of the country with a slow eastward movement, and a ridge building over the western portion of the country. At the surface, clouds this afternoon will slowly dissipate over night ahead of the upper ridge giving way to sunny and dry conditions for Monday. Cooler temps still affected by leftover area snowpack.
Colder temperatures are forecast this afternoon in the cold front's wake, with highs in the upper 20s to low 40s. Look for lows tonight to be in the low 20s to near 30 degrees. Much warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday as low-level warm air advection increases ahead of the next in a series of cold fronts. Gosselin The large-scale pattern across the CONUS is expected to feature a strong mid/upper level ridge near or just off of the Pacific coast and broad troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Another cold front moves through the area on Tuesday producing increasing rain chances.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to readings over the weekend, but still well above average with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 70s across the northern Sacramento Valley.
Mid and high clouds associated with a quickly passing upper level trof will persist across the region through late afternoon before clearing during the evening. Light to moderate northerly winds will prevail through the day becoming nearly calm overnight as high pressure settles over the region.
641 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Patchy light snow and freezing drizzle are possible early this morning and may lead to some slick spots on roads and parking lots.
W/NW low level flow is bringing warmer air into the CWA.
The only thing we will see in regards to these waves will be a few clouds and cooler temperatures behind them.
305 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 A positively tilted longwave trough stretches from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. An amplifying ridge aloft will slide over the region on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures climbing to around 0 to 6C over the forecast area. An upper level trough will dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night with a vertically stacked low pressure system stalling over Lake Superior.
Discussion Light winds and clear skies have made for a slightly cooler morning than yesterday. Winds will shift to the west, allowing us to tap into warmer air out west. Those in northeast and central MO will only see highs in the low to mid 40s due to not only be further away from the warmer air, but also having lingering snow cover. Tuesday is the warmest day of the week with the day starting out with upper level ridging over the region and surface winds generally out of the southwest. Expect high temperatures ranging from the low 50s in northeast MO to the upper 50s along the MO/KS border.
A building ridge of high pressure and offshore winds will result in warm temperatures for the remainder of the week, with daytime high temperatures rising above 80 across some interior valleys and readings above 70 possible along the coast.
The remainder of this week will be fairly quiet thanks to high pressure locked over the Pacific Northwest.
230 AM PST Mon Feb 7 2022 Dry and mild conditions will continue through at least mid-month as high pressure remains over the region.
Temps are below freezing there, so if there are enough droplets to make it wet, they could freeze onto things. Any threat of freezing drizzle across the extreme southeast part of the forecast area should end by mid-morning, as weak low pressure lifts north toward Long Island and surface temps rise above freezing. Warm advection/southerly flow ahead of approaching upper trough, combined with a fair amount of cirrus-filtered sunshine, should push temperatures a few degrees above normal Monday afternoon. Expect highs to range from 35-40F over the northern mountains and into the lower 40s in the south-central towns. A cold front will approach northwest PA late in the day. This moisture-starved cold front appears unlikely to produce any precipitation over the northwest counties, but shallow post- frontal moisture and orographic forcing could produce some spotty, very light snow over the Alleghenies.
655 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Aviation -- Light wintry precip today -- We will be monitoring freezing drizzle changing to snow set to arrive in time to be a nuisance for the morning drive. Models have been more bullish with precip production on our side of the lake, perhaps due to moisture contribution from Lake Michigan but also slight strengthening of the low. There has already been freezing drizzle developing between Traverse City and Ludington, and it is expected to spread toward southwest Michigan prior to daybreak. Behind the cold front which is currently passing through, progressively colder air at 850 mb and higher inversion heights will support an increasing likelihood of cloud glaciation and therefore a change to lake-effect snow showers by mid morning.
Max temps along the I-64 corridor will likely stay near or just below the freezing mark, while southern locations will struggle to break 40 degrees.
In the upper levels, broad riding remains locked in over the western CONUS with troughing over the east. This warm front will make its way through the eastern Dakotas through this morning, ushering in a seasonably warm air mass over western and central North Dakota. Cooler temperatures expected but still above normal to the north and east with highs in the 30s and 40s. By the daytime hours however, adequate boundary layer mixing and 40-50 kts at 850mb with unidirectional flow through the lower levels should produce strong momentum transfer potential to necessitate wind headlines for Tuesday. This will continue to keep temperatures mostly on the mild side with cooler temperatures to the northeast and warmer to the southwest.
(06Z TAFS) Mid/upper-level clouds assocd with slow moving mid-level trof resulting in BKN sky cover at HOB/CNM/PEQ through around 10Z. Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with temperatures mainly in the low 50s.
225 AM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Ridging in place today. The surface pressure gradient stays up for a continuation of the high winds through the Paradise Valley. High temperatures will remain quite mild, but with less mixing potential, should be a few degrees cooler.
401 AM MST Mon Feb 7 2022 Skies have cleared in the wake of the trough that passed over the forecast area yesterday. The high pressure centered over the West Coast has been gradually nosing eastward into the region. Highs will also be on the rise over the next couple of days under the influence of the ridge.
Breezy northeast winds will continue through early morning, especially for the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains.
652 AM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 Light snow is possible overnight and Tuesday morning along the I 80 corridor, and in the ridges.
Cold front has moved east of the area in the last hour or so and all sites are now broadly westerly/northwesterly with cold advection ongoing. Southern Indiana will reach the lower 40s, tapering to mid 30s across northern Indiana.
Therefore, the higher solutions for temperatures and lower solutions for RH are the most likely outcome from these harsh model run mood swings.
Expect the low stratus to slowly pivot eastward through the afternoon, with perhaps some scattered cloud associated with the second trough briefly impacting more southern areas later today into tonight. Another trough swings into the area late Tuesday night, but will likely be lacking significant moisture, despite some probable midlevel moisture in the dendritic growth zone.
Although the air is not overly dry, temperatures will be at or below freezing by sunrise Tuesday. Most of the snow has melted, but some refreezing of water may occur near plowed areas and drifts.
Despite the departure of the low, cloud cover has remained abundant across the area as additional Gulf moisture is pulled northward ahead of approaching upper trough.
(The rest of today ) Scattered cloud cover associated with an upper level trof axis were currently pushing southeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late this morning. mostly clear to a few passing high clouds are expected behind the exiting upper level trof axis. Far Northwest Arkansas looks to be slightly cooler.
Surface map shows a trough over the northern plains, with a warm front along its axis across the eastern Dakotas. The first wave will approach tonight, and the cold front will begin crossing our CWA early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue across the area through the week with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog developing and dry conditions persisting.
Looking at visible satellite and the office webcam, low stratus is beginning to move in across the Lower Keys. This low stratus will be temporary and should erode as we go into the afternoon. Clouds and a northerly wind off the mainland has kept temperatures on the cooler side today.