Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE CLOUDS ARE FROM MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CO/UT STATELINE. AIRFIELDS ALONG AND WEST OF LINE FROM KBTM TO KHVR WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE KEEPS CONDITIONS STABLE AND DRY. EAST OF THAT LINE, EXPECT A MIX OF MAINLY MID- AND HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN COLORADO.
/ISSUED 930 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME BEING PULLED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS HAS EFFECTIVELY HALTED ANY MOVEMENT. UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MAKE PROGRESSES AGAINST THE RIDGE.
APPEARS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY HANG OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TIMING THE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAIN ISSUE IS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW MOVING ONTO SOUTHWEST US COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTH.
333 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down into the Texas panhandle. Cold front looks to stall across the region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm development by early afternoon.
241 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AND EVOLVE INTO STG/NEAR FULL-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING AS OF MID AFTERNOON. AND SCT- NMRS SHOWERS WL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE A COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER WRN CO WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AND INTO ERN SD BY THIS EVENING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z/TUE. ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NERN NE TO MID 60S IN SERN NE/SWRN IA. DECREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL YIELD COOLER LOWS RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH VALUES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW INTO WRN NE.
226 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO UPSTATE NY TONIGHT.
THE HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A SURFACE BOUNDARY (WEAK COLD FRONT) LINGERS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENHANCING LIFT WITH PWS AT OR ABOVE 1. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS WHILE ELONGATING EAST TO WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE'LL SEE A BREAK FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
216 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 313 AM CDT ONE FINAL DAY OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LARGER SCALE BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WHILE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER WEATHER. THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
202 PM PDT MON APR 18 2016 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR.
BY TUESDAY, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST IN THE LOW-LVLS AND AWAIT ANY SUBTLE LIFTING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
544 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
225 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 THE OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
FLIGHT WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
148 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE, THOUGH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AND A CONTINUING SWELL WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS IN PLACE FOR AWHILE LONGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
125 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH. BUT AM A LITTLE WORRIED THE SOUTH COULD END UP A LITTLE WARMER THAN THAT IF THE CAA IS SLOW ENOUGH.
For Tuesday, the upper low and associated vort lobe moves east across the Central Plains with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading west to east. The initial portion of this forecast period will be cool and damp as what's left of the ongoing Colorado upper low lifts out into Nebraska.
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N/135W WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BRINGING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.
227 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE LARGE SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOWER SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY 18Z TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPS TO AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRYING THAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STRONGER ENERGY IS EXPECTED WRAP AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TAKES OVER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
214 PM PDT MON APR 18 2016 An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions to NorCal tonight through tomorrow morning. A series of upper level disturbances will bring cooler temperatures and chances for showers and a few thunderstorms towards the end of the week. RAP model upper level analysis and water vapor imagery indicated a ridge of high pressure positioned over California this afternoon with an upper level low pressure system off the west coast. Temperatures across the region this afternoon were in the low to mid 80s in the valley with temps in the low to mid 60s in some ridge locations. Above normal temperatures will continue tonight and tomorrow across the forecast area as a high pressure area continues to influence the region.
258 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
545 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 The upper level ridge will finally start to break down across the central portion of the country as the broad upper low over the Rockies starts to make its way east towards the Mississippi Valley later tonight. The leading band of showers well out ahead of the upper low will track east and into parts of west central Illinois late tonight and crawl its way east into parts of central and east central Illinois on Tuesday. With the increase in cloud cover tonight and a light southerly flow, temperatures will not be as cool as the past few mornings with early morning lows expected to range from the lower 50s far north to the upper 50s over the southwest.
/ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX SPOKES AROUND IT.
340 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 The upper low currently over the Rockies will move ewd very slowly tonight. Tilly A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru the upcoming weekend. However, look for a cooler day Tuesday than today due to the increased clouds, with the warmest values over in IL away from the rain, where upper 70s may still be attained, but areas towards northeast-central MO struggling to get much over 70F.
AN AMPLIFIED STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN COVERING THE EASTERN U. THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND IMPINGES UPON IT. AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH A LIGHTER EASTERLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. AND AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AFTER A COOL START EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURE WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
313 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE DEEP PLAINS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST.
329 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. THE LOWEST MIDLEVEL RHS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
601 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
352 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. THE LOWEST MIDLEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
658 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. THE LOWEST MIDLEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT-WED THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU-FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK FROPA THIS WEEKEND.
133 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THE DROP IN H500 HEIGHTS/H850 TEMPS.
346 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUES TO BRING QUIET CONDITIONS LATE TODAY. THIS IS CURRENTLY ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE SIZABLE RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT NIGHT AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES. THE LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL FINALLY BE MAKING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
244 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
222 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. THE LOWEST MIDLEVEL RHS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
339 PM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE LOW. TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW ON THE PLAINS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL RAKE NW COLORADO PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM ASPEN-VAIL NORTHWARD.
300 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 WV imagery shows the upper trough hasn't moved in the past 24 hours, and may have regressed a little, remaining over western CO. Closer to home, area radars show earlier convection over the Lower Trans Pecos has largely dwindled, w/a few -SHRA in the Permian Basin, w/even 0. Mesoanalysis shows the Lower Trans Pecos to be capped, so better chances for convection this afternoon should be a bit further north.
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER MAGNITUDE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND IT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE RIDGES ONLY COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUCKLE ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR AN INFLUX OF AT LEAST HIGHER CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL TEMPER THE HIGHS A BIT. BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL SEE LOWER 80S WITH A BIT WARMER START AND STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE LINGERING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
41 A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEN A SOUTHWEST WIND PRODUCING EVEN WARMER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
A PROTECTIVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD OFF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ADVANCING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF A LARGE PLAINS STATES TROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 80S.
330 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
618 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WARM TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE STORMS IN MS THIS MORNING.
330 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK. A MOISTURE STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
1158 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANGE FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
148 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK. A MOISTURE STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
1242 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 313 AM CDT ONE FINAL DAY OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LARGER SCALE BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WHILE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER WEATHER. THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 904 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016/ DRY STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT (4-5MB) BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER WARM, SUNNY DAY TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SUPPRESS SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LATEST CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG COOS AND CURRY COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR PLACES LIKE NORTH BEND, BANDON AND BROOKINGS. A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
327 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
1255 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
400 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY.
358 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CUT-OFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS AFFECT ON CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT HELPING TO CLEAR CLOUDS FROM MY NORTH. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NORTH. TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH MAXES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WITH BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS. SFC RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND WILL NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
423 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NW CO THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE SERN U. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO NE CO BY 00Z WED. NAM SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE ROCKIES FCST TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN.
307 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
The high pressure ridge over the Midwest will weaken and retreat southward today as a trough moves into southeast Canada. This will allow the closed low over the central Rockies to edge closer with thicker high clouds moving in late in the afternoon. Highs again should generally be in the low 80s. and low pressure moving into the northern Plains. Models continue to trend slower with backdoor cold front moving southward out of WI and into northeast IL Tue afternoon with much cooler air staying north of central IL. Cutoff low will weaken and eventually open up into an upper level trof as it tracks eastward into the upper Midwest Wed night and through IL on Thu. Cooler highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu due to more clouds and showers around.
305 PM MDT MON APR 18 2016 LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS HERE. THE LONG LIVED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AT 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
312 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
512 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
Scattered showers continue to move northeast across eastern portions of the area, and while a thunderstorm or two are possible for MAF and FST, the low chance precludes inclusion in current TAFs. This low will wobble around but eventually move east the next couple of days. High pressure will build in from the west behind this low.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER WESTERN COLORADO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THOUGH WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW.
228 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
Much of the low/mid level clouds should continue to dissipate this evening.
Much cooler and wet pattern will return to NW California during the second half of the weekend. Last night, with clear skies and calm winds, temperatures has cooled off to the low 30s for many locations. Decreasing clouds Wednesday night as the front dissipates and high pressure builds in from the west.
503 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 A cooler airmass will settle into the region tonight and Wednesday in the wake of a cold front moving across the Ozarks Tuesday afternoon. After a mild day, lows tonight will fall to near the freezing mark. Will likely see intervals of clouds Wednesday within a cold air advection pattern associated with a passing upper level trough. A broad trough will continue over the Great Lakes Region into the Upper Midwest. All models show an upper level low pressure and trough digging into the southwestern portions of the country by the weekend.
831 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 An area of low pressure will move across the area Wednesday with a cold frontal passage Wednesday night.
541 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Large vertically stacked low over the Upper Midwest dominating the weather map across the country as the trof stretches from coast to coast. However, cooler air is just to the west on the other side of a sfc trof/secondary cold front. Drier air expected to help scour out some of the higher dwpts in the southeast where cloud cover today trapped some of the ground moisture from yesterdays precip. And whereas the highs tomorrow will be cooler than today. As the large low pressure area continues to move east-northeast, high pressure ridge will build into the middle of the US and bring dry and seasonable temps to the entire CWA for the remainder of the week and the beginning of the weekend.
711 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 Evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a mid level ridge over the Florida Straits, while a broad and energetic trough digs into the northern Plains and upper Midwest.