Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
Areas of freezing fog have developed in valleys this morning, and are expected to remain until after sunrise despite some high level clouds moving overhead. During the evening, a wintry mix of precipitation will likely begin in northwest Montana, with pockets of freezing rain possible. West central Montana could also see these impacts from freezing rain, but only light rain is expected for north central Idaho. Rain remains the likely precipitation type for Camas Prairie valleys all night, whereas western Montana valleys will see any rain or freezing rain change to snow during the early morning.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO DE- VELOP OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP GIVE US DRY/COOL/QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BREAKING DOWN SUN AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DIG OVER NRN MEXICO AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA. 41 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS S/W APPROACHES THEN RELAXES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IN SETX. THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN AS WAA RAMPS UP AS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATIONARY FRONT RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT AND WARM MOIST S TO SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
520 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR MASS AND YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE AREA WITH LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
834 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MARITIMES TODAY THROUGH WED.
351 AM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 COLD FRONT IS THROUGH DENVER BUT COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND. MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT SHOULD HELP TEMPS BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY.
IT WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EXPECT INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WEDNESDAY MORNING TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN /WPC PRECIP PROBS FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE IMPRESSIVE/.
Short term guidance, including the HRRR, suggests areas of freezing fog will develop through sunrise. Included a mention of freezing fog in the grids through 8 AM Tuesday. Associated cold front will arrive in the far western CWA around 6 AM, with an increasing north wind.
A SERIES OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN CO WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW LONGEST. THIS NEXT TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES IN QUICK SUCCESSION. AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
Enough cold air is expected to hold on that snowflakes will be initially possible, especially in Arkansas, but as warm air advection continues the precipitation will transition toward mainly freezing drizzle, with some sleet possible with any heavier precip rates. Freezing drizzle will continue to be the mostly likely precip type.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 24 36 33 / 0 20 70 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 19 34 29 / 0 20 70 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 19 33 28 / 0 20 70 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 23 14 34 26 / 0 10 70 50 NC.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES SOUTH DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE MAIN STORY THIS MORNING WERE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY INTO TOMORROW. BRINGING WITH THEM ENOUGH SUPPLY TO KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1004 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR MASS AND YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE AREA WITH LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH IS KEEPING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AND A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FREEZING RAIN. JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA IS WHERE THE HIGHEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE.
NOT MANY WILL REACH THE FREEZING MARK TODAY. BUT AN INTRUSION OF A WARM NOSE AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS COULD VERY WELL SPELL FREEZING RAIN FOR THOSE SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65. THIS AREA OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND LACK OF COUPLED FORCING/SCARCE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS RESULTING IN DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WED MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS MON. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS MON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EAST WITH MOST AREAS FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT/ LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRI.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH.
AN UPR TROF OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPR TROF WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGEST SNOW TOTALS WILL FALL IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND ROADS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TODAY/S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WITH INCREASING CLOUD DECK AND PRECIP. AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER STILL WEDNESDAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW.
A ridge of Arctic high pressure is still firmly entrenched across the area, although we will trend on the "warmer" return flow side of the ridge today. The developing southeasterly flow, while not warm, will allow temperatures to climb several degrees warmer than yesterday. 1033 mb arctic high pressure over IL this morning to drift east into the eastern Ohio River valley this evening.
THEREFORE TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
835 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA IS HELPING TO PUSH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST MUCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS AS THE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN CO WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW LONGEST. THIS NEXT TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES IN QUICK SUCCESSION. AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH JUST ABOUT EXITING THE REGION BY 06Z TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THAT HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST AND INTO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
836 AM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NEARLY ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS /SFC-700MB/. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A SPRINKLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER ACROSS THE DESERTS.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGED IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT STILL APPEARS THAT ALL AREAS WILL REACH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
The 00Z TOP sounding shows a nice dry layer in the lowest 4000 ft so it will take a little longer for accumulating snow to start reaching the ground. With the entire column below freezing, the only issue regarding precipitation type will be whether or not ice crystals are present. Given the apparent lack of ice crystals in our far south, have maintained the mention of freezing drizzle.
SUNNY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
934 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
ANOTHER BONE-CHILLING NIGHT OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED DIRECTLY N/S ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO. LATEST DETERMINISTIC/MESO MODEL RUNS BRING THE TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. BULK OF TROUGH ENERGY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS STRATUS GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER WY WEDNESDAY AND DROP SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WEDS NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A 925 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS INTO THE LOWER-20 KNOTS RANGE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP ACROSS OUR INTERIOR PORTIONS WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIMPS THROUGH AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EASTWARD. WITH WAA AND BROAD RIDGING FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
233 AM PST TUE JAN 19 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
611 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z BEFORE MIXING OUT AS WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TX-OK PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BUT WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTH FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS AS APPROACHING TROF CREATE PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. CUTTING OFF AS THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THOSE AREAS.
AND AS A RESULT EXPECT TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO DE- VELOP OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP GIVE US DRY/COOL/QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGING WILL BE BREAKING DOWN SUN AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DIG OVER NRN MEXICO AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA. 41 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS S/W APPROACHES THEN RELAXES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IN SETX. THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN AS WAA RAMPS UP AS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATIONARY FRONT RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT AND WARM MOIST S TO SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP PAST ALL TAF SITES IN THE 03Z-04Z TIMEFRAME.
LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW LAYERS TOO DRY FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND LACK OF COUPLED FORCING/SCARCE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS RESULTING IN DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KCDS AROUND 00Z WHILE IFR VSBY AND/OR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT KPVW AND KLBB. WEST WINDS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN REMAIN GUSTY AND VEER TO NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST TODAY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD TO THE NRN ZONES BY NOON AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA BY END OF DAY. WILL FAVOR WARMER END OF MOS TEMPS GIVEN A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
THIS ALL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
428 AM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 AN UPR TROF OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPR TROF WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ISSUED 319 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/PV TAIL DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP ACROSS OUR INTERIOR PORTIONS WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIMPS THROUGH AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
456 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE OUR TEXAS COUNTIES IN A WARMER RANGE OF MID TO UPPER THIRTIES WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT QFP TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
230 AM PST TUE JAN 19 2016 WEAK TROUGHS ILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
700 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUING CAA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WITH A NW BREEZE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGIST/LOW TEENS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS NO HIGHER THAN THE LOW/MID 20S DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A VERY STRONG SOUTHERN JET AND A POWERFUL AND SUSTAINED LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR AREAS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 35N LATITUDE /BETWEEN 170 -140W LONGITUDE/. WILL LEAD TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. LEADS TO A WARMER PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S AS OF 09Z. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NEARLY ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS /SFC-700MB/. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A SPRINKLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER ACROSS THE DESERTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTH FLOW TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL POOL NEAR THE LOW.
SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER SUNDAY OVER TODAY.
735 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH 12Z RAOBS SHOWING IT CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE RIDGE/S PROXIMITY TO THE REGION WILL HELP PROMOTE A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS CLD COVER SHOULD STAY FAR WEST OF THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS WHILE THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
848 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH SOME EVEN WEAKER TROUGH AXES TO SERVE AS THE INITIATOR FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE US A BIT OF A BOOST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BOOST US INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S THAT WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE AIRPORT WHERE THE BEST BULK SHEAR RESIDES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FOR THE PLAINS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CROPS OF STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUN BUT WENT PESSIMISTIC AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST.
BUT ENCOUNTERING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AS THEY DO SO. ANY SORT OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DOWN IN IOWA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BRING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS THE AREA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TO CREATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. AS THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW.
WITHIN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME AXIS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHERE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE HEAT IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE GULF UPWELLING HAS DROPPED WATER TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY AND AIR TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT THE COOLER WATER ALONG THE COAST TO LINGER AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY SO TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
806 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BAKER CITY AND BURNS/ ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. COOLER AIR WILL START TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS DOWN 5-10 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND SW IDAHO LATE TONIGHT.
745 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BRING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS THE AREA.
706 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PROLONGED HEATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON THE HEAT INDICES NOW THAT ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS ARE SO WARM.
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals underneath an upper ridge the next 24 hours.