Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
235 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2016 Drier air moving into the region will keep thunderstorm activity limited to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through Monday. Meanwhile, warmer afternoon temperatures can be expected.
Prognostic Overview -- The low-level cyclonic system to the north of the Florida Keys will meander slowly between northern Florida and Mississippi over the next few days, dumping flooding rains on that region. the low-level Atlantic ridge will remain pinned nearby, down in southern Florida. Winds should come up some by later in the week as the ridge begins to move northward.
205 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 205 PM CDT Upper ridge will strengthen across the region allowing for primarily dry conditions along with a warming trend through midweek.
With mid/upper level ridge stationed overhead, will not expect much change in the expected conditions through the short term period.
This is due to a combination of continued low level moisture and resultant instability along with the lingering, very weak cold front that is stretched across the northern portions of the Gulf States. Our focus then turns to the broad, upper level low and attendant surface feature over southern GA/northern FL. By this weekend, extended models are indicating the approach of a cold front from the north. With all of the rainfall this week, temperatures should hold steady around normals for this time of the year and a few degrees cooler this weekend with more widespread rainfall. The low level troughing will reach areas southeast of the mid state by late tonight. However, retrograde motion of the low level troughing is expected aft 12z and may spread convection back across the csv area by late in the taf pd.
Mid level trough axis this morning is moving eastward over the central plains with mostly zonal flow over the eastern CONUS and an additional upper trough rotating across the Pac NW. In terms of temperatures today, believe the lingering light rainfall with the dense cloud cover will keep highs a few degrees cooler than previous forecast. Readings in the lower to middle 70s are common with light easterly winds at the sfc up to 10 mph. Clouds will also linger into a good part of the day and have kept temperatures on the cooler side accordingly, although it should be noted that a more widespread cloud shield and/or slower departing precipitation would be cause for further reduction in daytime highs.
surface analysis still has very weak area of high pressure over the NW Gulf which supports SW surface flow.
1048 AM PDT Sun Aug 7 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move into the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through tomorrow with hot and dry conditions continuing. The location of 850mb thermal ridge will remain unchanged tomorrow and as such afternoon highs will be within a degree or two of this afternoon's highs. An upper level ridge will remain centered across Texas through most of the upcoming work week, resulting in above normal temperatures.
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Warmer and more humid conditions through mid week is the main story of this forecast, with small precipitation chances through the period requiring some consideration as well. Shallow ridge axis is forecast to progress east tonight and Monday, and will be east of our area by Monday night.
This high will stay in control over our weather tonight through Monday night.
307 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Upper level high pressure will continue to keep most of the active weather either across the Central Plains or across the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida.
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid/upper level low centered along the WA coast, a ridge over the western Plains to Alberta and a trof over se Canada. Southerly winds on the backside of the high will work to limit lake breeze off Lake Superior on Mon. With 850mb temps roughly 2C higher Mon aftn than this aftn, there should be less cu development, and high temps for most locations will likely be 2 to 5F degrees warmer than today.
I did go ahead and expand the coverage of fog this evening as we will meet our crossover temps this evening as we cool into the low 50s with crossover temps in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure begins building in on Monday and the pleasant weather continue Monday with dry weather expected.
324 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide fair weather across our area over the next couple of days. Warmer more moist air will overspread the area by midweek bringing a low chance of thunderstorms.
the Lower Valley (Cameron/Willacy) away from the coast has reached the 111 heat index threshold, and McAllen just did with a 102/71temp and dewpoint at 240 PM. Thereafter, a rain-free forecast on land and just hints of isolated showers over the outer legs of the Lower Texas coast. As for heat advisory? Another day to "flirt" with it for the lower Valley.
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A large area of high pressure over the upper midwest will slide SE across the Great Lakes and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.
221 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather until humidity and rain chances return by mid week. Increasing subsidence under building high pressure and temperature falling under the convective threshold will rapidly dissipate cumulus this evening.
350 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Upper level analysis reveals closed low over PacNW slowly pushing southeast into Washington State while upper level ridge remains over the Southern Plains. Much of the same can be said for tomorrow and the next few days as model continue to dampen the ridge of high pressure and shift the ridge axis a little further east. Guidance is coming into better agreement with late week upper trough and surface front.
Monday looks to be warmer still and a bit drier but still ample moisture and instability for a round of showers and thunderstorms over mountains and Palmer divide and then spreading elsewhere later in the day.
With more cloud cover lows tonight should be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous night.
(Issued 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016) Foggy and muggy start to this morning with temps starting out in the low/mid 70s. Fog has lifted into a stratus deck with a lingering high bkn/ovc deck that is associated with a weak cold front. The cold front is in southern TN and will move into the forecast area this afternoon. JMS For 18Z TAFs: A weak cold front oriented in a west to east fashion across the forecast area is expected to move further to the south this evening, becoming stationary near the I-20 corridor on Monday.
351 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A low pressure system will prevail over the Deep South through mid week, then Atlantic high pressure will rebuild late week into the weekend. Low pressure near the FL/GA border will shift a bit north tonight and this will help push some deeper moisture into southeast GA/SC. A mid/upper level low over northern Florida will meander over the Deep South during the period, bringing periods of enhanced rain chances.
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A large area of high pressure over the upper midwest will slide SE across the Great Lakes and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.
High pressure will provide another dry day Monday. With some clouds around went closer to the warmer MAV MOS low temperatures, which is similar to a raw model blend.
Temperatures have continued to verify warmer than MOS, so will go a few degrees higher than MOS again for highs. The rain chances decrease somewhat monday night as cold front will be either along the southern border of the forecast area or just to the south.
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 A weak trough of low pressure will drop through the Tri-State Region tonight. High pressure will then build into the area Monday.
559 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region on Monday.
Tonight Through Monday Night Upper level high pressure is centered over Texas at this time providing northwest flow over Arkansas.
231 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2016 High pressure remains over the region through most of the coming week. A low pressure system will approach at the end of the week. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build to the east and south tonight, keeping dry conditions in place. The high pressure will remain the main surface feature over the region through at least the first half of this week, though gradually shifting to the eastward during this time.
Most locations will remain dry, aside from some spotty drizzle along the coast and perhaps a brief light shower or two in the high mountains of Trinity County.
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide fair weather across our area over the next couple of days. Warmer more moist air will overspread the area by midweek bringing a low chance of thunderstorms.
A closed upper low over Washington state will maintain the stable westerly flow over the Medford CWA, bringing benign weather over the next few days.
After a short break in the active weather, isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. By the end of this week, a ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the area, which will push the low pressure system out of the area and allow for a warmer and drier pattern to return.
By Monday afternoon, a surface wind shift/weak cold front will be situated along the Highway 83 corridor, with middle to upper 60s F dewpoints expected in the pre-frontal warm sector.
Meanwhile the diurnal driven CU field in conjunction with low level thermal trough will dissipate. 500 millibar heights will be on the increase with mid level ridging building up a bit. 925 temps nudge up to 20-22c so expect to see some 80s return though onshore flow will keep the east/lakeside areas a bit cooler.
652 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather until humidity and rain chances return by mid week. A persistence forecast was used through the near-term period as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 An upper level ridge will remain over the area through the middle of the week keeping showers and thunderstorms mainly in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.
An approaching trough/short wave will place the Northland in a return flow with increasing 850hPa temps Monday. The upper level ridge will break down early this week as the west coast upper low/trof slowly digs into the western CONUS.
with models remaining to be consistent on prevalent southwest flow aloft ahead of approaching upper level low.
On Monday, low pressure will begin moving out of the northern Rockies into the western Dakotas. Winds will increase and become more southerly as the low approaches, beginning the start to the increasing heat and humidity that we will see through mid-week. Highs on Monday will be about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today for most areas. Thunderstorm chances look to remain on the low side, with only the typically bullish GFS trying to break out some convection in our far west early in the evening with weak theta e advection/instability.
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region on Monday.
CAPE is very marginal and with equilibrium levels warmer than -10C, don't anticipate any lightning with ongoing activity. High pressure begins building in on Monday and the pleasant weather continue Monday with dry weather expected.
225 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Upper level analysis has broad ridge across the central CONUS with closed low over the Washington coast. At the surface, high pressure resides over Minnesota with lee trof developing across central Montana and Wyoming.
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Latest surface analysis indicated 1020 MB ridge over the western Great Lakes, with axis extending south into the mid Mississippi Valley. This has shunted the low/mid level baroclinic zone well southwest of the CWA, from KS into southern MO.
Monday should see increasing southerly winds and moisture ahead of an upper wave that has ejected out of the Pacific Northwest upper low. The period begins with low pressure passing just north of the border near Lake Winnipeg.
Wet pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms present across Central Alabama this afternoon in a warm moist tropical atmosphere as an upper low pressure system is nearby to the south along with a stalled surface boundary stretched across the middle of Central Alabama. Surface boundary is expected to remain stalled across the area on Monday with no cooler/drier air associated with the boundary expected.
A cold front is moving through eastern Idaho this afternoon. A few thunderstorms developed across the high country this afternoon. Could still see an isolated storm near the Montana border as a low pressure system moves through the Idaho panhandle into western Montana.
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Large area of high pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region this afternoon. NE edge of the high clouds will continue to stream into our southern CWA this afternoon. but will be suppressed southward tonight as the high center continues to build into Michigan. with temps just a bit warmer. Afternoon highs will warm mainly in the lower 80s. Upper air pattern dominated by Central US ridge with upper low over eastern Canada and another low over the PAC NW. high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes with elongated low pressure system from BC down through the central Rockies. the upper low is expected to only be in the northern Rockies while another upper low drops into NC Canada.
Low pressure over north FL may move little during the short term. Path of FL low will affect rainfall totals across the area and at this time the evolution of the low is uncertain. BDL The broad low pressure system centered just west of the CWA should stagnate through the vast majority of the fcst period allowing for an abnormally moist and tropical airmass with PWATs in 2.
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Our persistently plaguing high pressure is finally playing nice making a plodding promenade to pull out of West Texas. Thunderstorms were also breaking out as they rounded the edge of the high into the central TX Panhandle. Tomorrow will be much of the same story depending on how far the high relaxes, but again the western and northern zones should be the favored areas for rain chances as monsoonal moisture rounds the edge of that high. Temperatures will be quite similar to today, unfortunately, for those still under the influence of the ridge.
the cooler and drier air to the north of the front will allow lows to settle well into the 60s tonight, with a few upper 50s possibly by early Monday morning. By tomorrow, the stalled frontal zone will start to lift back to the northwest as a quasi-warm front.
Outflow from this convection and the synoptic scale front located to our south will then come into play tonight as the low level jet begins to refocus and strengthen across Oklahoma.
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Widespread fog and/or low stratus has developed across much of the high plains early this morning. We should start to see some sun by early afternoon, so expect a slightly warmer afternoon for much of the area with H7 temperatures averaging around +14 C.
1130 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central WY, with lee trof stretching from central MT to southwest WY. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge over the plains with southwest flow across the Rockies, ahead of upper low remaining nearly stationary along the pacific nw coast. Chances for thunderstorms will gradually increase from west to east across the area over the next couple of days as upper low begins to move east across the pacific nw. Southwesterly flow aloft will spread east across the area behind exiting ridge, with embedded disturbances crossing the northern Rockies and northern high plains. More sun and some warmer air aloft will result in highs in the 80s across the plains, warmest over northeast WY, with 70s over the higher Black Hills.
651 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to produce fair weather early in the week with warming temperatures early to midweek.
A low pressure area will control the weather pattern for the next several days. High pressure will build over the region late in the week, resulting in a reduction in fog and low clouds along the coast, and modest warming elsewhere.
A slow-moving upper level low near the North Coast this afternoon will take until Monday evening to cross east of the Cascades, continuing the showery weather with the possibility of thunderstorms.
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Analysis loop of satellite, observations, and radar shows a ridge of high pressure nosing down over the area. CAPEs of close to 4000 J/kg with little shear (in Oklahoma) would indicate a small chance of storms organizing into a forward propagating cluster along the front, also supported by the low level moisture transport. If that happens, temperatures could be warmer than forecast. Ridge building in the upper levels of the atmosphere does occur toward midweek. The next cold front moves into the area late in the week.
Southwest flow will be found above western Kansas through at least the mid part of the week due to an upper level high over the southern U. S and a an upper level long wave trough over the western U.
Tonight Through Monday A strong pacific low pressure trough will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the west with scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the Continental Divide through tonight.
The bulk of the thunderstorm activity will diminish during the evening hours with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
1041 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Cold front is just about out of the area and gusty W-NW winds are beginning to increase across the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 31 57 39 / 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 30 53 35 / 40 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 54 28 53 35 / 30 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 25 49 31 / 60 0 0 0.
548 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure continues to drift south today, with return flow developing across the CWA. The rest of the forecast appears dry with a low amplitude ridge building in from the northwest.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The dry cold front has finally cleared through the RGV with all of the surface obs from around the region indicating light northeast winds early this morning. The airmass moving in behind this front will usher in cooler and drier air over the region today finally bringing an end to the current record/near record heat that has been impacting the RGV. The low level dewpoints will also be on the increase as the flow returns from the Gulf of Mex allowing values to reach back into the 60s by Sun across the eastern counties. The short term temp guidance is in decent agreement through Sun with the GFS MAV going with the coolest numbers through tomorrow with the NAM and ECMWF showing better agreement on a slightly warmer solution.
A cold front has moved through all but PEQ and FST this morning with light NE winds behind the front. /issued 413 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ In the upper levels a flat ridge will stretch across the southern tier of states as an upper trough moves down the CA coast to Mexico. This trough will quickly swing east but weaken as it passes across SE NM Sunday.
At the surface, weak high pressure is over the region, with a cold front analyzed over the FLorida panhandle. The cold front will continue to shift toward the forecast area through the day, and we could see a couple of sprinkles this afternoon, although (after some debate), we have left them out of the forecast because of the dry air above the surface. A cold front will move through the waters this evening and tonight, with high pressure then moving into the southeast for Sunday.
316 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017 Overnight water vapor loop showed a deep upper trough over the MS River valley, with a band of convection progressing across the eastern Great Lakes south into the TN valley.
/Issued 354 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017/ Early this morning still a lingering isolated strong to severe storm possible along leading edge of cold front making its way into NW GA. Tonight should see a long awaited return to what will feel like actual winter as many locations in north GA should dip into the low 30s with both the radiational and advective cooling components at play. Sunday will be less windy with ridge centered close to the CWA.
High pressure building down from the Plains will be the dominant weather player today. /issued 420 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ This morning's satellite imagery and surface analysis shows a surface cold front having exited our CWA. High pressure currently located over the Central Plains is forecast to build south and east through the day today. Northerly flow will usher in cooler continental air and the CWA could actually see high temperatures a few degrees below normal for the end of February.
Just freshened the high temperature and wind grids per latest observations and short-term model guidance. A cold front arrives from the north early Sunday.
The area of snow associated with the deformation zone continue to move east across the area as the main trough axis through. Upstream we have a SW-NE oriented trof axis sliding southeast toward our CWA. So the best chance of snow showers is across the high country and areas less affected by downslope, which means areas east of Billings. By evening we should see some stabilization thanks to some subsistence behind the trof axis. For Sunday, another strong trof drops over the Pacific NW and pushes moisture into western Montana. The trof begins to track into southern Idaho by Sunday night which may translate into enough forcing into our area to get some precipitation out into the plains.
Surface wise, a narrow ridge lies across our area which is resulting in light and variable winds of 5 knots or less across our entire marine district.
926 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front will push through the area this afternoon with gusty west winds. A cool and dry pressure ridge will build over the area Sunday.
838 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Temperatures will fall through the day as wind increases behind a cold front. Cold front has nearly completed it's passage through the forecast area this morning, nearing Latrobe and DuBois PA. Expecting wind gusts to increase through the day, especially in the high elevations this evening and overnight. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts. Temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values and cloud coverage will diminish as high pressure continues to build and lower levels dry out.
A cold front was moving through central Georgia this morning, with a band of light showers along it. The front will move through southeast Georgia this afternoon and northeast Florida this evening, with clear skies and cooler conditions tonight. A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and evening, with winds increasing to 20-25 knots out of the northwest.
Upper level trough was swinging across the area with the stronger forcing beginning to shift off to our east. Subsidence in the wake of the trough has already ended the snow in our western counties, and was also clearing out the skies. Today: Upper level trough/forcing will continue to shift eastward allowing for any lingering light snow or flurries to end early this morning. In addition, brisk northwest winds will also gradually diminish this afternoon, as high pressure pushes into MO. Tonight: High pressure ridge moves east returning warm air advection mid/high level clouds, so skies will become mostly cloudy again. Lows will be in the lower to mid 20s, and in many locations this will occur this evening.