Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 The snow will come to an end across Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning as the cold front moves across the Upper Midwest. Cooler air will move in behind the cold front, but with clearing skies the sun will help moderate temperatures.
Monday highs look to even get near the mid 70s for central GA and upper 60s in much of north GA aside from cooler pocket NE.
Low clouds across central and north central sd lifting north this morning on the backside of the high pressure area to the east. Canadian high pressure builds in at the sfc today.
Going into tonight expect the stratus near the Missouri River into northwest IA to expand a bit north as low pressure develops to the south. By late morning into the afternoon low pressure will move to the southeast of the area and start to advect this dry air more southwest. May even see some slightly quicker drying and slightly stronger winds just west of the Buffalo Ridge where a bit of a downslope flow develops. Highs on Monday pretty cold, especially with a breezy east and northeast wind, only climbing into the teens to lower 20s, maybe a little warmer under the cloud cover to the south.
At least scattered SHRA will continue through tomorrow morning area wide with gradual improvement to restrictions over southern/central terminals as a warm front lifts north. Winds will also become S/SE once the warm front passes with increasing speeds and gusts by late morning into the afternoon.
Model soundings don't show any elevated instability developing, mainly due to the low-level jet advecting warmer air aloft and only moderately cooler temperatures higher up, leading to weak lapse rates. The overall pattern has a trough moving across the eastern CONUS, with an associated low pressure system occluding as it shifts east across Tennessee and Kentucky. By Monday, northern AL and southern Middle TN will be in the warm sector of this low pressure system, with a strong low-level jet, mixing down southerly winds up to 25-30 mph. The next round of more widespread rain won't occur until the cold front moves through Monday evening. For this reason, probably not expecting anything strong along the cold front. Once the cold front moves through, we will see winds back off and shift to more westerly.
Previous discussion: In the near term, the low pressure system continuing to spin in northern SK/MB will continue to force a northwest flow pattern over northeast Montana, which will mean continued cloudiness and cooler air.
Moist advection from the south has is starting to erode from the SW corner of the CWFA while low stratus continues to hang on to the north of a cold front which has moved further south than indicated by most guidance. Into tomorrow, winds will increase with significant drying of the lower levels and slowly clearing skies. Our next upper low will be over southern Nevada/western Arizona by Monday evening.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with dew points in the mid 60s across the island communities.
This will allow a warm front to surge to near I-40 by sunrise Monday and drag a cold front through the region late tonight into Monday morning. There will possibly be a brief window for surface based storms to develop along the cold front as it moves through the warm sector across southeast Oklahoma overnight.
A slow moving upper level trough is offshore at this time and will gradually make its way inland this afternoon. Despite its slow movement, the trough is elongated with limited moisture. By Monday night, the trough will lose almost all of its moisture and energy as it moves east of the Cascades, and precipitation will end.
932 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Wx map shows warm front moving northward across Inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. A warm front lifting north through the area will bring a more predominant southerly flow to the area this afternoon, and also some opportunity for improvement to MVFR, especially KAEX and the Acadiana terminals. As has been the case the past couple of days, the low level stratus will hinder fog dissipation which is expected to linger until mid morning. An upper level low will swing east across the desert southwest today before ejecting northeast across the plains pushing a better defined, although weak, frontal boundary through the area as it does so.
When all is said and done, expecting 1-2" with the highest rainfall amounts likely near the TN/KY border through tomorrow. A few, heavy showers will linger through the morning hours, especially along and north of I-40, as the surface warm front begins to lift into Kentucky. Another line of showers and t'storms out ahead of the cold front will pass through the area with the potential to bring some strong to severe t'storms.
An upper ridge is situated over Middle Tennessee while low and mid-level moisture advect into the area ahead of an approaching frontal system.
As we head into early Monday morning, a Pacific cold front will move in from the west.
318 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Tonight through Monday A quasi-stationary frontal zone extending from Southeast Florida into the central Atlantic should gradually dissipate over our area into Monday as high pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the region. As surface ridging builds in from the Atlantic light winds tonight should become southeast around 5 to 15 knots on Monday, with the strongest winds along the east coast and over the Atlantic waters. Highs tomorrow will reach into the lower 80s for all areas with the exception of the immediate coasts where upper 70s are expected. During this time, a 500mb trough over the western US, will migrate east and induce cyclogenesis over Texas, which will interact with a stalled boundary well to our north.
1252 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Water vapor continues to show a deep split flow trof covering the western half of North America. At the surface, ridge extends over the far eastern Dakotas with modest return flow as trof deepens along the Rocky Mountain Front.
304 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Weakening high pressure will drift eastward and offshore late tonight.
230 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Wx map shows warm front moving northward across NE TX/N LA this afternoon.
The shifting wind direction is allowing the return of more moisture and warmer air for the next couple days. As a trough axis propagates out of the Rockies and towards the eastern half of the United States, an attendant cold front should move through our area, bringing some change to our weather conditions for the middle of the work week. Behind the front, some cooler and drier air will filter in once more for a couple days. Then as winds begin to shift, moisture and warmer air will begin to filter back in through the end of the forecast period. Light winds, ample moisture, and cooler temperatures overnight favor the formation of fog.
After an above normal day today, low temperatures tonight will likely be in the single digits to just below zero across portions of central to north-central Wisconsin by the early morning hours, and in the lower teens near the lakeshore and Fox Valley. Temperatures will gradually rise towards the lower to middle 20s, but the sunshine will make it feel marginally warmer outside through the morning.
(This evening through Monday) Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over southern Arizona, with southwest flow aloft prevailing across west Texas. For tonight, the aforementioned upper level trough and associated Pacific front will approach the region.
153 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Cyclonic split flow over our region today will transition to modest ridging tonight into Monday. Cross sections and soundings indicate a possibility of some patchy fog, light freezing drizzle and flurries reaching our western and central zones by Monday night, including Billings.
1205 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Low clouds across central and north central sd lifting north this morning on the backside of the high pressure area to the east. Canadian high pressure builds in at the sfc today.
Short range models remain in fair agreement indicating a closed upper low opening up and becoming more progressive as it accelerates northeast out of the Desert Southwest through the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma into southern Kansas. As a result, a winter mix of snow, sleet, and possibly light freezing rain is expected to develop, spreading northeast through central and portions of southwest Kansas overnight. Model soundings indicate a warmer layer aloft (>3-5C) across south central Kansas and into portions of southwest Kansas, creating the best chance for a winter mix of sleet/freezing rain in those areas. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) in west central and portions of southwest Kansas to the lower/mid 30s(F) in south central Kansas.
501 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over southern Arizona, with southwest flow aloft prevailing across west Texas. For tonight, the aforementioned upper level trough and associated Pacific front will approach the region.
Fog is expected to dissipate as the warm front lifts north after midnight.
Overnight tonight into early Monday morning LIFR/IFR conditions along with additional showers and storms are expected to push west to east through the CWA as a cold front sweeps through the region. Behind the cold front. conditions look to begin scattering out from south to north as the upper low lifts northeast of the region. Uncertainty remains if BVO and far Northwest Arkansas can lift back to VFR with the potential for additional low clouds wrapping back around the low Monday afternoon. This will allow a warm front to surge to near I-40 by sunrise Monday and drag a cold front through the region late tonight into Monday morning. There will possibly be a brief window for surface based storms to develop along the cold front as it moves through the warm sector across southeast Oklahoma overnight.
523 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Surface pressure falls across the western dakotas along with a short wave trough moving across north dakota have brought winds around to east southeast across our cwa. The low clouds may not make into northeast South Dakota but still expect the mid level clouds to move over. Chilly temperatures will be the story in the initial days of this forecast period, as an area of high pressure remains centered across south central Canada through the midweek time frame.
Elsewhere, mainly just isolated light showers were observed along the weak warm front from central MS into north LA. While showers may become concentrated again this evening along the warm front over north LA/south AR/northwest MS, they will not persist as the forcing lifts northward with the boundary before midnight. As the mid level system ejects to the northeast and weakens, it will drag a cold front through the area during the day Monday. Forcing along this boundary may be adequate for showers, but the lack of sufficient low level moisture (dewpoints in the lower 60s) and the strengthening warm layer will make deep convection difficult to materialize.
443 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Water vapor continues to show a deep split flow trof covering the western half of North America. At the surface, ridge extends over the far eastern Dakotas with modest return flow as trof deepens along the Rocky Mountain Front.
The higher snowfall amounts across southwest Nebraska have also been shifted south toward KS slightly. The Winter Storm Watch will be converted to a Winter Weather Advisory and a few counties will be added to the highlight.
229 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Satellite and radar showing shallow convective showers spreading northeast across the high country, and some virga across the plains. In any case, it may end up like last night where a couple spots in the lower elevations get a quick half inch of snow, but most places would only see a dusting or brief flurries.
531 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 We'll be under the influence of cold and dry high pressure centered over the Canadian Prairies this period. Given the spread, stuck with the deterministic NBM lows each night, figure it's better to be off by 5 degrees on the low than 15 if you guess the wrong way on the cloud cover! Canadian high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest through much of the week, which will lead to cool temperatures and mainly dry weather.
309 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 With the region between the cutoff low off the California Coast and the trough crossing the northern US, stable weather has spread across the state.
We are currently catching a break from shower this afternoon, but this will be short lived as a system gets its act together to the west and in response a warm front will lift north through the area tonight. This warm front will serve focus for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Monday morning. Heavy rain is also a possibility tonight as that warm front moves in as the Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall tonight across portions of the Mid South.
21Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over AZ moving towards the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak ridge axis has stalled across central KS. However given the subtle differences in the thermal profiles, most guidance is showing the same areas being impacted the most from the winter storms and my forecast, using a cooler temp profile than the GFS, also highlights these areas that were already in the winter storm warning. But opted to go with an advisory at this time with the forecast showing the higher amounts missing the main population centers of these counties. So there is a mention of freezing rain in the forecast monday evening, but I think its impacts will be muted since lift should be diminishing as the saturation is lost.
Also, the dominant ridge over the north Pacific will remain anchored in place.
305 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 We'll be under the influence of cold and dry high pressure centered over the Canadian Prairies this period. Given the spread, stuck with the deterministic NBM lows each night, figure it's better to be off by 5 degrees on the low than 15 if you guess the wrong way on the cloud cover! Canadian high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest through much of the week, which will lead to cool temperatures and mainly dry weather.
341 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Surface pressure falls across the western dakotas along with a short wave trough moving across north dakota have brought winds around to east southeast across our cwa. The low clouds may not make into northeast South Dakota but still expect the mid level clouds to move over. Chilly temperatures will be the story in the initial days of this forecast period, as an area of high pressure remains centered across south central Canada through the midweek time frame.
A weak cold front has reached southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas, but this system is not expected to be a factor in our weather conditions as it is expected to lift northward over the next couple of days. An expansive high pressure system currently over North Carolina is expected to move southeastward, enveloping most of the western Atlantic, including the Florida Keys.
715 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Weakening high pressure will drift eastward and offshore late tonight.
205 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 With the region between the cutoff low off the California Coast and the trough crossing the northern US, stable weather has spread across the state.
A weakening trough, the second in the series which began earlier this weekend, moving over the Southwest was the driver for this activity.
625 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 High pressure over the North Country this afternoon will continue to provide clear and cold conditions to the region through this evening before a decaying clipper system passing north of the border brings increased cloudiness, warmer temperatures, and the chance for some flurries on Monday.
531 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 An upper level trough is currently located across the southwestern U. Low clouds and fog are occurring across the area ahead of the low. The higher amounts will likely be in a band with most locations likely closer to one inch out side the heavier band(s). A cold front will move through the area and colder conditions will arrive mid week.
318 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 21Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over AZ moving towards the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak ridge axis has stalled across central KS. However given the subtle differences in the thermal profiles, most guidance is showing the same areas being impacted the most from the winter storms and my forecast, using a cooler temp profile than the GFS, also highlights these areas that were already in the winter storm warning. But opted to go with an advisory at this time with the forecast showing the higher amounts missing the main population centers of these counties. So there is a mention of freezing rain in the forecast monday evening, but I think its impacts will be muted since lift should be diminishing as the saturation is lost.
Surface pressure falls across the western dakotas along with a short wave trough moving across north dakota have brought winds around to east southeast across our cwa. The low clouds may not make into northeast South Dakota but still expect the mid level clouds to move over. Chilly temperatures will be the story in the initial days of this forecast period, as an area of high pressure remains centered across south central Canada through the midweek time frame.
VFR should return to the terminals between 15-18Z on Monday as the low clouds and fog burns off. The shifting wind direction is allowing the return of more moisture and warmer air for the next couple days. As a trough axis propagates out of the Rockies and towards the eastern half of the United States, an attendant cold front should move through our area, bringing some change to our weather conditions for the middle of the work week. Behind the front, some cooler and drier air will filter in once more for a couple days. Then as winds begin to shift, moisture and warmer air will begin to filter back in through the end of the forecast period.
/issued 230 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021/ Wx map shows warm front moving northward across NE TX/N LA this afternoon.
This as a consequence of a high pressure moving from southeast U. As the high expands and moves further to the east, the moisture band will break and drier conditions will reach the local area on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, low clouds will increase across the area with low temps dropping to the lower 60s across the interior coastal Volusia while the Treasure Coast and southern Brevard will stay in the mid 60s. Temps on Mon will warm up even more when compared to highs on Sunday and will reach the lower 80s. For KMLB to KSUA, winds will increase to near 15 kt with gusts up to the lower 20s for a few hours in the afternoon.
After the low clouds and fog burn off by mid to late morning on Monday a pleasant dry warm day is expected with an increasing southerly wind flow supporting temperatures climbing into the lower 80s during the afternoon. VFR should return to the terminals between 15-18Z on Monday as the low clouds and fog burn off. An increasingly warm and moist air mass overrunning the cool Gulf waters will lead to some patchy sea fog development the rest of tonight with additional areas of sea fog a good bet through mid week before another cold front moves south through the region bringing with it cooler and drier conditions. As mentioned above the main marine hazard for the rest of tonight and through mid week should be sea fog as the warm/moist air mass overrides the cooler shelf waters.
349 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 An upper level trough is currently located across the southwestern U. Low clouds and fog are occurring across the area ahead of the low. The higher amounts will likely be in a band with most locations likely closer to one inch out side the heavier band(s). A cold front will move through the area and colder conditions will arrive mid week.
1253 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 High pressure will shift offshore by tonight as a warm front develops to our southwest and lifts north through the area on Monday bringing warmer temperatures. Ridging aloft will also favor above normal temperatures during this time.
1024 PM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Water vapor continues to show a deep split flow trof covering the western half of North America. At the surface, ridge extends over the far eastern Dakotas with modest return flow as trof deepens along the Rocky Mountain Front.
1008 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over southern Arizona, with southwest flow aloft prevailing across west Texas. For tonight, the aforementioned upper level trough and associated Pacific front will approach the region.
1047 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 We'll be under the influence of cold and dry high pressure centered over the Canadian Prairies this period. Given the spread, stuck with the deterministic NBM lows each night, figure it's better to be off by 5 degrees on the low than 15 if you guess the wrong way on the cloud cover! Canadian high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest through much of the week, which will lead to cool temperatures and mainly dry weather.
00z KOUN sounding sampled steep mid level lapse rates supporting modeled solutions of expanding and increasing elevated instability ahead of approaching trough. Further south the warm front is currently near the Interstate 20 corridor and is forecast to lift into SE OK later tonight marking a region of higher conditional severe probabilities. The more uncertain aspect is overall coverage within the warm sector in advance of the cold front. Should storms develop along and south of the warm frontal zone later tonight through early Monday morning then low level winds will support wind gust / tornado potential.
1138 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 An upper level trough is currently located across the southwestern U. Low clouds and fog are occurring across the area ahead of the low. The higher amounts will likely be in a band with most locations likely closer to one inch out side the heavier band(s). A cold front will move through the area and colder conditions will arrive mid week.
322 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 A warm front currently stretches from central Texas through far southwest Georgia to the west coast of Florida. The warm front will slowly push northward this morning, but may increase in forward speed by early this afternoon as the boundary layer winds pick up to 15 to 20kt out of the south. Do think the far NE counties in the CWA will remain situated just north of the warm front until later this evening. The warm front should push into the Tennessee Valley this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches from the west.
241 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 The parade of upper troughs continues with the first trough swinging across the region early this morning. As this trough passes off to the NE the next upper trough will be working its way down the CA Coast.
Regional surface analysis had a 1000mb low over west central Texas with a warm front stretching east across the central portions of our CWA. Elsewhere, mainly just isolated light showers were observed along the weak warm front from central MS into north LA. While showers may become concentrated again this evening along the warm front over north LA/south AR/northwest MS, they will not persist as the forcing lifts northward with the boundary before midnight. As the mid level system ejects to the northeast and weakens, it will drag a cold front through the area during the day Monday. Forcing along this boundary may be adequate for showers, but the lack of sufficient low level moisture (dewpoints in the lower 60s) and the strengthening warm layer will make deep convection difficult to materialize.
237 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 A passing weak disturbance will be exiting the area overnight with some freezing drizzle and light snow possible across the area. The mid and upper levels have dried out across the southern OH counties leading to some freezing drizzle developed. Still, some freezing rain is possible in the higher elevations. Current expectations are that most precipitation will end by 12Z as a very brief period of flat mid-level ridging occurs ahead of the next, more significant system.