Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
647 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Clouds will linger through a good part of today before a high pressure area brings clearing skies starting from the northwest this afternoon.
704 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through tonight, keeping clear skies and light winds in the TAF for all sites.
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 An upper ridge continued to build across the central CONUS overnight, as a trough dug into the Pacific northwest. High pressure will keep the region hot and dry today. High pressure will gradually shift east of the area by this evening, leaving us in southwesterly flow aloft. A weak disturbance will ripple along the back edge of the ridge, potentially bringing a slight chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to far northeast Nebraska tonight. Low temperatures tonight will stay well above normal, in the lower 70s. Southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday, with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible.
/issued 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
627 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 The highly amplified upper level pattern continues to buckle through the next 24 hours, with the next trough starting to affect western WY. The trough sweep into WY overnight, with increasing chance for showers west to east through the night. Tuesday will be a messy day with the cold front and showers, associated with the trough, passing through. Temperatures should decrease through the afternoon behind the front leaving high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees cooler than high temperatures today/Monday. It will be similar to the higher wind winter systems this area receives and quite indicative of the changing of the seasons.
608 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Upper-level ridging encompasses the middle of the county and will persist across the middle of the country through the middle of the week.
Extensive stratus will remain entrenched over Southeast Michigan for much of today as the amplifying upstream ridge only slowly edges eastward.
dominant VFR conditions will continue as high pressure will remain across the region.
609 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Hot and humid conditions are expected into the middle of the week, but otherwise fair weather as high pressure builds across the region. Temperatures will average well above normal over the next An expansive area of high pressure is in place across the Midwest and Great Lakes. A strong upper ridge will be centered along the Mississippi River Valley or Great Lakes region through the latter half of the week, providing primarily dry weather along with hot and humid conditions.
913 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 High pressure will build into the region and control our weather all week with dry weather expected and partly to mostly sunny skies.
424 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 In the short-term, upper-level ridging and associated warm weather will continue through mid-week. Models are more consistent in showing a low in the western Gulf of Mexico coming inland into Texas and then getting pulled farther north as the upper ridge axis moves east and also higher liklihood of getting southwest flow aloft ahead of a trough moving toward the area from the west. While these scenarios are looking more likely, there is still disagreement on the timing of trough and precipitation.
1016 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Weak high pressure will extend across the southern middle Atlantic states today. A backdoor cold front will push through the region again Tuesday.
224 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Significant cooling trend today as trough of low pressure ushers in cooler air. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada today near Yosemite NP; some snow showers may occur along the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada as well.
739 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A passing shower is possible today as a weak cold front crosses the region. The highest probability resides in northwest Pennsylvania closer to Lake Erie. H8 temps between 14-16C and a little solar heating should have no problem pushing max temperatures into the lower 80s once again today. Highlights: - Above normal temperatures - No sign of measurable rain until late in the weekend Mid level anticyclone across the midwest will be the main weather player for the extended.
701 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Weak low pressure and a trailing cold front will push southeast across the area today. High pressure will slowly build southeast across the region beginning tonight, becoming centered over the east coast by the end of the week. A cold front will sink south across the area through the day, with a few showers possible with the frontal passage. Have held on to some slight chance pops across far NW OH into the late afternoon/early evening, where models continue to show decent low level moisture and some lingering convergence as high pressure begins to build southeast through the Great Lakes. High pressure will ridge into the area from New England as an upper level ridge strengthens.
High pressure will build in from the north and bring a very long stretch of dry weather. Short wave trough seen on water vapor imagery is moving across nrn OH and into PA. The prevalent clouds will keep the temps cooler - but near normal - in the northern and central zones. A large upper level ridge will build over the Great Lakes which will dominate the weather pattern through the week.
555 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Another hot and dry day is on tap as a strong upper level ridge remains centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs will once again be in the lower to middle 90s over most locations.
Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the next trof axis pushing east onshore from the PAC, maintaining a SW flow regime over our region. In tandem, amplified ridging presence over the Mississippi Valley will extend back into TX, leaving above normal heights back over the southern plains. The pattern will maintain persistence in warmer than normal temperatures for the next several days with many areas breaching the 90's by mid-week as the theta-e ridge sets up over the Pecos River Valley and higher terrain in west TX.
A big upper level ridge will remain in place across the Tn Valley Region this week.
One difference from the last couple of days is that the potential is not isolated to the higher terrain areas. /Issued 358 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ Hot and humid conditions underneath a ridge of high pressure will continue Today and Tuesday before the ridge shifts southeast for the second half of the week. The result will be high temps in the low to upper 90s for most locations Today and Tuesday with slightly cooler.
A cold front will push through the Northern Rockies this evening bringing breezy westerly winds, and steady rainfall for some. Below average high temperatures settle in for Tuesday, and these cooler temperatures are expected throughout the week with a trough pattern to dominate. Weak high pressure and a brief period of drying is expected for Tuesday afternoon. The next trough quickly moves into the Pacific Northwest, causing southwesterly flow and increasing rain chances beginning Tuesday evening in Idaho.
216 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A dry and quiet night expected for the Valley as high pressure continues to build aloft. Above normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through the short term period as H5 high pressure centers over the lower Ozark/MS River Valley.
Upper ridging will be over the area for the majority of the forecast period leading to warm and quiet conditions. The latter half of the weekend could see a cold front and precipitation as the ridge drifts east. Upper level ridging will settle over the area throughout the short term aiding to the warm and quiet conditions. Models indicate that a weak surface front will move through Tuesday leading to partly clouds skies, a shift in the direction of winds and slightly cooler temperatures mid week.
Upper high pressure ridge will remain in control which will result in afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across most of the forecast area.
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Weak high pressure will extend across the southern middle Atlantic states today. A backdoor cold front will push through the region again Tuesday.
Dewpoints are once again expected to mix out well enough to lower afternoon RH values into the 25-35% range for most areas outside of the higher elevations in the mountains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 67 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 95 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 61 89 65 / 0 10 10 10.
151 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Broad high pressure remains anchored aloft over the Plains region, extending over the southeast. At the surface, Hurricane Humberto continues to spin off the Georgia/Carolinas coast, with high pressure over the southeast.
The second system is an upper-level wave that is expected to move into the High Plains region around mid- to late-week. This will drive a surface cold front into the Kansas/Oklahoma area, and the combination of low-level convergence near the front and upper- level support should generate showers/thunderstorms while it is in the vicinity.
259 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Water vapor satellite shows a trough departing northeast Colorado and moving into Nebraska with dry air in place over our CWA. Water vapor satellite also shows a strong trough over northern California and northwestern Nevada. This trough will continue to move east-northeastward and will center itself over Wyoming during midday tomorrow. Models indicate QG descent on the back side of this trough over our CWA during the afternoon hours. Because of this, storms will struggle to form along a cold front that moves through during the afternoon. The high terrain will have gusts above 40 mph with the mountain peaks seeing gusts up to 60 mph. Winds over the plains will be a bit more sporadic but will gust up to 35 mph especially behind the cold front.
1151 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 The highly amplified upper level pattern continues to buckle through the next 24 hours, with the next trough starting to affect western WY. The trough sweep into WY overnight, with increasing chance for showers west to east through the night. Tuesday will be a messy day with the cold front and showers, associated with the trough, passing through. Temperatures should decrease through the afternoon behind the front leaving high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees cooler than high temperatures today/Monday. It will be similar to the higher wind winter systems this area receives and quite indicative of the changing of the seasons.
A strong upper level system is pushing a cold front through the area and spread showers and isolated thunderstorms from west to east through the day.
249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 (Tonight and Tuesday) Near persistence conditions continue under upper ridging. Highs continue in the low to mid 90s with lows 65 to 70.
147 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A trough of low pressure aloft will be responsible for light valley rain and high elevation snow showers in the northern portion of our service area this afternoon into this evening.
1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Hot and humid conditions are expected into the middle of the week, but otherwise fair weather as high pressure builds across the region. An expansive area of high pressure is in place across the Midwest and Great Lakes. A strong upper ridge will be centered along the Mississippi River Valley or Great Lakes region through the latter half of the week, providing primarily dry weather along with hot and humid conditions.
253 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Forecast concerns in the short term deal with strong winds as a low pressure system moves into the area Tuesday. Water vapor imagery showing an upper level trough pushing into the west coast. As that trough approaches. As the low moves through Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure will build in from the north and bring a very long stretch of dry weather. A weak wave of low pressure riding ESE along this boundary will provide some slightly enhanced LLVL and limited theta-e convergence/UVVEL, but enough to form some small/brief light showers that will be falling from high-based strato cu and low-end alto cu. A large upper level ridge will build over the Great Lakes which will dominate the weather pattern through the week.
1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Upper-level ridging encompasses the middle of the county and will persist across the middle of the country through the middle of the week.
This clearing will spread southward with time, with mainly clear skies overnight aside from some high clouds with the wave riding up the upper ridge. After that, another quiet day is on tap as the ridge drifts overhead. A slow breakdown of the ridge should keep the midweek system off to our northwest, though some slight chance PoP's will remain in the forecast northwest of the Illinois River. The ridge will be slow to give way across the eastern U.
A deeper trough over the West Coast will move east tonight and Tuesday, but lift to the north of Colorado. Otherwise, expect another round of orographically driven convection Tuesday, with a decrease in activity late in the day as drier air moves in behind the upper level trough axis passage.
348 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Weak convergence was noted along a back-door cold front which had settled into the region. Lows tonight should range from the mid 60s in SW IL (on the cooler side of the stalled boundary) to around 70 in central MO.
Weak deep layer hear and overal instability parameters keep the overall severe risk on the low side.
330 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 As of 20Z Monday afternoon, an expansive midlevel ridge continues to reside across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with troughing in the west. At the surface, a broad trough was positioned across the High Plains from eastern NM through the western Dakotas. Coupling the heat with the high humidity will yield an another day with heat indicies in the upper 90s.
Another hot and dry day is on tap as a strong upper level ridge remains centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs will once again be in the lower to middle 90s over most locations.
Deep layer ridge axis stretches south to north over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with light north to northeasterly low level flow over Central Alabama.
The hot and dry pattern continues as upper ridging continues to amplify over the Ozark region. There will be residual vorticity aloft rotating south-southwest around the 5h ridge, but the atmosphere appears it will be too dry and capped to support thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon. Will have to monitor how deep the lower atmo mixes which could heat temps up a bit higher than forecast, especially given relative dry soil conditions.
Midweek, a front will push southward from the Mid-Atlantic into the forecast area behind the departing offshore cyclone. A dry and cooler airmass will build into the region late week behind the front. Temperatures will warm back up for the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the area. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to low 90s at most locations with afternoon highs a degree or two warmer than current readings.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridge moves to the east today. SW flow ahead of an upper trough will continue to keep temperatures much warmer than normal today with highs in the lower 90s in most areas with dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies. The low will drift northeast into southern Saskatchewan Tuesday morning and bring a cold front across eastern Montana. Meanwhile, an upper trough moves through eastern Montana Tuesday afternoon and evening. The early afternoon timing of the cold front could limit severe potential across that area.
Hot weather continues as an upper level ridge positions itself over the region. South and along the boundary, in the higher PW air, CAPE values will be 1500-3000 J/kg and there will be some weak speed convergence at 925mb to help aid in any development.
235 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 20z surface analysis had low over southern SK with warm front into eastern NE and trough into eastern CO. Upper trough churning over the west coast the main concern this forecast. Low pressure will develop over eastern MT driving trough and cold front into CWA Tuesday afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing associated with trough will result in gusty southwest winds along/behind boundaries. Temperatures will be tricky tonight with downslope warmed areas overnight for the higher elevations given west boundary layer flow and thermal ridge.
1245 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Current surface map places trof across the western Dakotas. Deep low level mixing behind surface trof will limit MLCAPE across northeast Wyoming and far western South Dakota.
132 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 An upper ridge continued to build across the central CONUS overnight, as a trough dug into the Pacific northwest. High pressure will keep the region hot and dry today. High pressure will gradually shift east of the area by this evening, leaving us in southwesterly flow aloft. A weak disturbance will ripple along the back edge of the ridge, potentially bringing a slight chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to far northeast Nebraska tonight. Low temperatures tonight will stay well above normal, in the lower 70s. Southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday, with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible.
A strong cold front will sweep southeast across the state tonight through Tuesday.
1229 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A passing shower is possible today as a weak cold front crosses the region. A weak cold front currently in far nwrn PA will advance swd this afternoon and evening, and may support a slight upswing in coverage of showers as renewed lake moisture is supplied in its wake. However, high pressure will build quickly as an upper-level ridge amplifies to the west, bringing veering wind and increasingly dry air to end any showers in the ridges by mid-morning Tue at the latest. Apart from the post-frontal air mass on Tue, temperature is likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. Highlights: - Above-average temperature - No sign of measurable rain until late in the weekend Mid level anticyclone across the midwest will be the main weather player for the extended.
For tonight, high pressure will gradually shift east of the area late tonight.
A mid-level trough rotates toward the Upper Mississippi Valley region overnight through Tuesday. Shower and storm chances move into portions of MN/IA/western WI later Tuesday night as a cold front pushes from the Dakotas into MN.
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 An upper ridge continued to build across the central CONUS overnight, as a trough dug into the Pacific northwest. High pressure will keep the region hot and dry today. High pressure will gradually shift east of the area by this evening, leaving us in southwesterly flow aloft. A weak disturbance will ripple along the back edge of the ridge, potentially bringing a slight chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to far northeast Nebraska tonight. Low temperatures tonight will stay well above normal, in the lower 70s. Southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday, with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible.
322 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Hot and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday night as the area remains locked under the influence of the persistent upper ridge centered over the Mid-South.
Temperatures still expected to reach 90 degrees along the coast, and the low 90s inland.
1138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 The hot and dry pattern continues as upper ridging continues to amplify over the Ozark region. There will be residual vorticity aloft rotating south-southwest around the 5h ridge, but the atmosphere appears it will be too dry and capped to support thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon. Will have to monitor how deep the lower atmo mixes which could heat temps up a bit higher than forecast, especially given relative dry soil conditions.
An upper level trof will move across the northern plains with a vort max ejecting across SD and ND.
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure then builds over the region Tuesday through the end of the week. A cold front will cross the area this evening and will be accompanied by an increase in clouds and few-sct showers mainly to the left of the low track or on the north side of the front. Otherwise, much cooler tomorrow with clearing skies during the afternoon. High pressure will build Tuesday night through the end of the week giving way to a taste of early fall weather with highs in the 70s and cool nights in the 50s on Wed night.
1117 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A passing shower is possible today as a weak cold front crosses the region. A weak cold front currently in far nwrn PA will advance swd this afternoon and evening, and may support a slight upswing in coverage of showers as renewed lake moisture is supplied in its wake. However, high pressure will build quickly as an upper-level ridge amplifies to the west, bringing veering wind and increasingly dry air to end any showers in the ridges by mid-morning Tue at the latest. Apart from the post-frontal air mass on Tue, temperature is likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. Highlights: - Above-average temperature - No sign of measurable rain until late in the weekend Mid level anticyclone across the midwest will be the main weather player for the extended.
Moisture will remain in place across northern Arizona today as a low pressure system moves into the Great Basin.
So far most convection associated with this upper level low has remained over the waters today. Model guidance is really keeping QPF confined to the coast or offshore with the majority of the convection on the north and east sides of the inverted coastal trough.
333 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A stray afternoon thunderstorm will remain possible across far southern portions of the Pine Belt as easterly flow remains in place between ridging to our north and a tropical disturbance over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. For tomorrow, ridging will be centered over far northern Mississippi with anomalously warm 850mb temperatures (20-21 C) contributing to well above average warmth. The good news, however, is that dry air and the aforementioned deep mixing will keep dewpoints in check which will in turn limit heat index values to the low 100s. /TW/ Expect mainly dry conditions through mid week as high pressure ridging remains across the region.
143 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 High pressure will continue building over the region which will act to slowly dry out the atmosphere but not before a low inversion and lake moisture lead to potential issues through tonight. Extensive stratus will remain entrenched over Southeast Michigan for much of today as the amplifying upstream ridge only slowly edges eastward.
355 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 The primary story continues to be the summer-like heat across the area with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s - roughly 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. With the highly amplified pattern remaining place, a similar weather day is anticipated on Tuesday as the upper ridge resides over the forecast area.
928 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Another night of tranquil weather is expected across the TN Valley, as the region remains under the dominant influence of a strong mid- level ridge centered across the Ozarks/mid-South regions. Isolated- widely scattered showers which developed earlier today along a cold front pushing southward across KY will continue to dissipate as the boundary layer stabilizes, and we will maintain a dry/clear forecast for the overnight period. Above normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through the short term period as H5 high pressure centers over the lower Ozark/MS River Valley.