Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb inverted trough is sitting right over the Texas coastline, which has provided substantial support for showers and thunderstorms today. In fact, several areas saw over 2 inches of rainfall in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, where convection has overperformed. Tonight, models show the trough moving well inland over Mexico, but additional development will be likely on the lee side of the wave along with residual, deep moisture still over the region.
314 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020 High pressure stretching from the southern Plains eastward through the Ohio and TN Valleys will bring another very pleasant night to the region, with clear skies, calm winds and temperatures falling back through the 60s. The high will then shift east towards the Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday, allowing southerly breezes to return. A cold front will try to make its way south through the Midwest later Sunday night and early on Labor Day, before stalling out as mid level flow becomes more wswly.
This forecast is a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast across ncntl Nebraska but a degree or two warmer than the short term model blend. The low pressure system across the upper Midwest will move northeast into Ontario and deepen Sunday night. A strong area of Pacific-Polar high pressure will begin moving south through western Canada. North and northeast winds which developed with the passage of a cold front late tonight will continue Sunday and Sunday night.
Water vapor imagery highlights a photogenic mid-upper level low over east-central Cuba. Low-level ridging stretches west across Florida and supports moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. 0") over the Keys and also near the Cuban coast underneath the center of the upper low. 7") is spreading west-northwest along the south side of the ridge. Much of the island chain has remained rain-free, although portions of the Lower Keys are getting doused with a late afternoon cloud line.
Overnight lows tomorrow morning will be slightly warmer than this morning by around 1-2 degrees thanks to some increased wind speeds.
249 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020 An upper level short wave trough will continue to slide southeast across southern Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening.
Early morning started with temps in the 50s thanks to yesterday's cold front passage. Dry high pressure will remain in place today giving sunshine and highs in the low to mid 80s. High pressure is in control and VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours with only some scattered high clouds.
Kentucky Mesonet currently shows temps in the lower 70s with dew points in the mid 50s across the region. Highs today are expected to reach the 79-82F range, and possibly just a tad warmer within the Louisville metro. Highs today should reach into the low 80s for most with dew points nestled comfortably in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure center is forecast to be to our east at the start of the period resulting in more of a southerly flow across the region for Sunday. Highs should warm into the 82-87 degree range with lows Sunday night dropping back into the low-mid 60s.
High pressure will continue moving into the area today and clouds will diminish. Today Through Sunday Night An upper ridge stretches essentially from the Rockies to the southeast U. with an upper trough over the northeast. The ridge will strengthen over the Rockies today and tonight and set up a northwest flow over Arkansas.
/Updated at 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020/ Short term forecast is on track with the early season cold front having pushed through much of the state this morning.
Ongoing dry/unseasonably warm pattern will continue tonight through Sunday as broad ridging aloft across the Intermountain West begins to slowly erode, giving way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Prevailing southerlies will reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas tonight. A deepening lee side trough will result in southwesterly downslope winds Sunday, enhancing warm air advection across the high plains of western Kansas.
Quiet weather to continue over the next several days as the upper high remains in place to the west.
Upper-level ridging will continue to extend across the north central Gulf Coast region today and hot temperatures are expected over the forecast area with this feature overhead, despite the weak boundary slipping across our area. Highs reach the low to mid 90s across the entire area, with a few local spots possibly reaching into the upper 90s during peak afternoon heating hours. Cooler temps return tonight - lows should range in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees inland and in the lower to mid 70s near the immediate coast. Another hot day is expected as well, with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Early morning started with temps in the 50s thanks to yesterday's cold front passage. Dry high pressure will remain in place today giving sunshine and highs in the low to mid 80s. Otherwise some of the high resolution models are indicating there could be some light BR from 09Z-12Z for CKV/CSV.
As the upper trough continues drifting west, our western zones should see the best opportunity for a second round of storms this afternoon, especially if stronger heating can unfold and trigger convective temps. East of the upper trough, increasing subsidence should suppress the coverage of additional showers and storms. /Issued 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020/ The first round of convection has largely moved through the terminals, so there will be a relative lull as the lower atmosphere recovers.
This may be the last thunderstorm chances for a while as a strong push of cool stable air will move south with a cold front Sunday.
149 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A weak cold front will bring clouds and a few showers to northwest and north central Pennsylvania this evening. Another area of high Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
133 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 High pressure will be in control through the weekend. The high becomes anchored off the New England coast through the upcoming week. Dry air continues to advect into the area as dew points fall into the low to mid 40s under light north/northwest flow. Just some high cirrus across parts of northern NJ and the lower Hudson Valley this hour, otherwise clear skies dominate. Sea breezes are likely this afternoon which may moderate dew points somewhat, but should still be comfortable in the lower 50s. A mid and upper level trough axis slowly approaches tonight. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
350 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 Cold front will continue to push offshore today bringing cooler and drier air through Labor Day. Humidity and rain chances return mid week as a warm front approaches the area. Latest sfc analysis shows 1026 mb high pressure centered over KY with a cold front now S of the Carolinas. Ensuing NE low-level flow has allowed for the lowest daytime temps so far this month, as well as cloudiness and a stray shower near the coast. Not much change into Sun, with the high building N of the area and NE flow continuing.
122 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A cold front will push through this morning, bringing slightly cooler and drier air this Labor Day weekend. KLTX VWP confirms northerly flow of wind in the low levels of the atmosphere presently. This regime brings much cooler daytime temperatures than of late. Rainfall amounts may never wind up too impressive however due to the absence of deep layer ascent as weak mid level ridging persists. A cold front has shifted southeast of the TAF sites and the prospect for precipitation per the latest models is trending lower.
139 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A ridge of high pressure will be centered over the state for much of today. A weak cold front will drift into the northwest part of Pennsylvania this evening, and could be accompanied by a few showers across the northern Mountains. Another area of high Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
Your short term forecast calls for continued high pressure overhead. The bulk of high pressure should be east of us by tomorrow. Forecast for your Sunday is similar to today, dry and temps in the low-mid 80s. The general h500 flow over the Ohio Valley has been from the northwest, but this is going to back towards the southwest as the trough digs south along the Rockies. Compacting surface pressure gradients will result and strengthen a west to east running cold front.
219 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020 Dry high pressure will remain over the area through the rest of this Labor Day weekend. Sunday will be a little warmer than today, but humidity will stay good.
117 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 High pressure will maintain mostly dry and comfortable weather through Sunday night. A weakening cold front may bring some rain on Labor Day, mainly to areas north and west of Pittsburgh. A sunny, dry, and comfortable day is in progress across most of the area as high pressure stretches from the middle Ohio Valley into southern PA. High pressure will maintain dry weather Sunday and Sunday night as it slips off of the east coast.
This fair weather pattern is expected to continue through the holiday weekend with temperatures and dewpoints starting to modestly trend warmer each day. The latest model runs continue to come into better agreement regarding the evolution of a cut-off low that will form East of the Rockies by mid-week.
1114 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2020 08z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front/lee trough into western NE. Pleasant night across the CWA with a few high clouds passing by as they overtop upper ridge in place over the southern Rockies per water vapour loop. Today, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with 95th+ percentile 700mb temperatures of 14-18C. Warm front will push east across the area with deeply mixed very dry boundary layer behind it. Tonight, upper ridge flattens as it shifts west in response to falling heights over western Canada into the northern plains. This will allow a cold front to slip into the CWA late.
Expect high pressure aloft to gradually give way to an approaching trough. helping keep the atmosphere mixed and overnight temps in the lower 70s across much of the area.
A warm front over southwest and south central SD should lift northeast through this evening, with surface dew points reaching the low to mid 50s after 3Z. A cold front will slide across the region on Sunday, bringing gusty northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. The low dew points, along with temps in the 80s and low 90s will cause afternoon RH values to drop below 30 percent over a good portion of the CWA.
1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020 High amplitude upper ridge remains positioned over the western U. with a trough axis over the Great Lakes and north into Canada. Temperatures were ranging from the low 60s in the eastern CWA to the upper 60s and low 70s out west.
The decreased surface moisture will lead to warmer temperatures tomorrow.
A few mid and high clouds remain over the northeast TN and southwest VA counties, and some guidance shows slightly cooler temperatures over those regions. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 86 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 86 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0.
It feels quite nice outside with dew points this afternoon in the mid 50s across the area and light northerly flow has kept temps in the low to mid 80s. More of the same tonight, with overnight lows around 60 and upper 50s in the higher elevation across northeast AL and southern middle TN. Good news, if you like today's weather then there is more of the same for the short term period with high pressure located over the southeast CONUS continuing to dominate the local weather pattern.
135 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 High pressure centered over the region will offer dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures today.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge stubbornly centered just west of the Four Corners, and a weak inverted trough over south Texas. To the south, area radars showed -SHRA over the lwr Trans Pecos, which could hang around thru Sunday invof the south Texas trough.
731 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A weak area of low pressure track across the northern border of Pennsylvania tonight, bringing clouds and a few showers to that part of the state. High Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
501 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 High pressure will maintain mostly dry and comfortable weather through Sunday night. A weakening cold front may bring some rain on Labor Day, mainly to areas north and west of Pittsburgh. High pressure will remain largely in place through this evening and tonight. A passing trough to the north will bring some cloud cover to the area but it seems a lack of moisture is still present and CAMs have backed off a bit on the showers expected to cross the north. High pressure will maintain dry weather Sunday and Sunday night as it slips off of the east coast.
This TUTT cell has brought in lower heights aloft and is associated with a broad lower level trough aligned over eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas. Meanwhile, moderate ridging is located across Florida and another ridge blankets the eastern United States. Short Term Update - Expect another round or two of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Florida Keys as the TUTT cell and associated broad lower level troughing works its way westward. Away from convection, expect surface winds to gradually trend downwards as the ridge to our north weakens a bit and the lower level trough moves closer to the Keys. A ridge across Florida will weaken resulting in winds trending slowly downwards out of the east to southeast.
An upper level short wave trough will continue to slide southeast across southern Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening.
High pressure stretching from the southern Plains eastward through the Ohio and TN Valleys will bring another very pleasant night to the region, with clear skies, calm winds and temperatures falling back through the 60s. The high will then shift east towards the Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday, allowing southerly breezes to return. A cold front will try to make its way south through the Midwest later Sunday night and early on Labor Day, before stalling out as mid level flow becomes more wswly.
Those locations once again could get on the lower side of the mid 50s by daybreak Sunday. as these cold temperatures run over much warmer waterways and create steam fog. Your short term forecast calls for continued high pressure overhead. The bulk of high pressure should be east of us by tomorrow. Forecast for your Sunday is similar to today, dry and temps in the low-mid 80s. The general h500 flow over the Ohio Valley has been from the northwest, but this is going to back towards the southwest as the trough digs south along the Rockies. Compacting surface pressure gradients will result and strengthen a west to east running cold front.
Dry high pressure will remain over the area through the rest of this Labor Day weekend. Sunday will be a little warmer than today, but humidity will stay good.
Tomorrow looks cooler with highs only in the 80s. However, given the current conditions this afternoon, will not be changing the highlights any.
However, the high- level clouds will likely shift southeastward during the early morning hours, as a mid-level trough axis crosses the region, veering flow aloft to the NNW. The combination of clear skies and calm winds will be favorable for radiational cooling, and the low temperature forecast has been reduced by a degree or so to account for this, with temperatures around sunrise expected to range from the m-u 50s in outlying areas to the lower 60s in urban locations and near large bodies of water. Good news, if you like today's weather then there is more of the same for the short term period with high pressure located over the southeast CONUS continuing to dominate the local weather pattern.
This combined with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s has resulted in heat indices in the lower 100s. The drier airmass will be over the entire region by Sunday morning and this will result in one of the coolest mornings in about 2 weeks with morning lows ranging from the low 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the south. Even though clear skies will allow temperatures to warm into the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon, the drier airmass in place will help to keep heat index values in the upper 80s to low 90s.
839 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A weak area of low pressure track across the northern border of Pennsylvania tonight, bringing clouds and a few showers to that part of the state. High Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
This moisture pool is associated with a tropical upper trough centered just north of Cuba which will continue the pattern of Atlantic showers overnight, with rain chances persisting along the coast south of the Cape.
/issued 335 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb inverted trough is sitting right over the Texas coastline, which has provided substantial support for showers and thunderstorms today. In fact, several areas saw over 2 inches of rainfall in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, where convection has overperformed. Tonight, models show the trough moving well inland over Mexico, but additional development will be likely on the lee side of the wave along with residual, deep moisture still over the region.
700 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A cold front will be south of the area today providing drier and cooler weather to the Midlands and CSRA. Hi-res model guidance suggesting some possible showers along the eastern Midlands during the 02z-08z time frame which looks to be along the strong near surface moisture gradient as the upper trough moves over the region. Sunday and Sunday Night: An upper level trough will be in place over much of the eastern U. At the surface, high pressure will continue to wedge into the area, keeping a dry and somewhat cooler northeast flow in place across the area.
High pressure in the region allows for the current heat and dry conditions to carry through Labor Day.
509 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 A weak area of low pressure track across the northern border of Pennsylvania tonight, bringing clouds and a few showers to that part of the state. High Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
Currently, the upper air pattern features a eastern trough working into the New England region. Winds will pick up and become more south/southwesterly over the next 24 hours as the lee side trough deepens and broadens into the local area. The surface cold front will advance into the area by Sunday night. Capping should remain strong enough that if any storms can fire along the cold front, they would likely be isolated and mainly into the evening or overnight. The heat will persist into the day tomorrow but with mixing and dewpoints holding into the low to mid 60s as a result, should see heat index levels still maintain the 100 degree range.
Weak cold front/wind shift moving through the area this evening, from near Livingston to Billings to near Baker. Tomorrow looks cooler with highs only in the 80s. However, given the current conditions this afternoon, will not be changing the highlights any.
High pressure north of the waters will maintain light east to southeast winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight into Sunday with a weak pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during Sunday afternoon.
Modest warm-air advection results in this southwest low-level flow with a slightly warmer day area-wide. 700 mb temps near 15 C and only weak convergence should keep any thunderstorm development in check but the boundary brings slightly cooler temps tonight.
139 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will weaken offshore through the Labor Day weekend along with easing northeast wind. Increasing humidity and rain chances can be expected mid-week, as a warm front approaches and low pressure offshore lifts north. Not much change into Sun, with the high building N of the area and NE flow continuing. Wedge of high pressure and dry mid levels will keep the area rain free on Monday with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Overnight lows will only be a degree or two warmer than the previous evening; most areas in the upper 60s to near 70.
1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 High pressure continues over the area with light winds.
119 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A weak area of low pressure track across the northern border of Pennsylvania tonight, bringing clouds and a few showers to that part of the state. High Pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build southeast over the region for Sunday and Labor Day, continuing the string of dry and pleasantly warm late Summer weather.
A front will move south across the forecast area Monday and provide cooler weather, especially over northwest Indiana.
Temperatures were generally in the lower 50s in the valleys and in the mid-upper 50s elsewhere. Temperatures should continue to dip over the next few hours with lows mainly in the low-mid 50s in most areas. For today, high pressure center will be located to our east and we'll be on the backside. High pressure will continue to exert its influence over southern Indiana and central Kentucky into the beginning of the week as a cold front stalls out north of the Ohio River, resulting in continued dry conditions but also seeing the return of heat and humidity.
Even with the cloud cover, still expect highs to climb into the low to mid 80s with southerly winds advecting moist air into the area. This surface cold front will then stall across the area Monday afternoon.
355 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Surface analysis this morning has a high pressure ridge draped across the southeastern CONUS, with the recent front having traversed the forecast region and into the Gulf. though possibly a degree or two warmer than this morning.
An upper level short wave trough will continue to slide southeast across southern Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening. We will also have to watch our central Missouri counties late in the day on Monday for some isolated thunderstorm potential as a cold front begins to settle towards the I-70 corridor.
253 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Mild and slightly muggy conditions persisted overnight as 2am temperatures were still in the lower to middle 70s with dews near 70. Winds will be gusty this afternoon, especially west of Highway 65 as low pressure continues to develop further in western Kansas. Another mild night is expected tonight as a cold front will only drop into northern Missouri with light south winds expected to keep temps in the lower 70s. 850mb temps may actually be a degree or so warmer than Sunday given the wsw flow. This along with very little cloudcover and perhaps some compressional warming ahead of the front will likely lead to Labor Day high temps reaching the lower 90s in many locations and have gone 1-2deg above NBM guidance.
A weakening cold front may bring some rain on Labor Day, mainly to areas north and west of Pittsburgh. A weakening cold front is progged to stall out in the vicinity of Lake Erie on Monday as ridging over the western Atlantic expands west.
High pressure is expected across the area into Sunday. 02Z temperatures were generally in the 60s with a few spots still hovering as warm as the lower 70s. The initial stages of convective development are ongoing over southwest Minnesota in the vicinity of a warm front.
Mild and dry Sunday night into Monday before big changes begin late in the day as a strong cold front plunges south across the CWA during the afternoon and evening.