Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
218 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Afternoon Update: Strong storms have formed out ahead of the cold front and are pushing through the middle of the region currently. In terms of the forecast for this system, many of the high resolution, convective allowing models (HRRR and HREF, for example) have done a fairly decent job representing the extent and timing of the convection, so those were relied heavily upon for the near term. Monday, the flow aloft will become more zonal under a weak low pressure trough across the Canadian Prairie.
The frontal boundary does not move much overnight, with lows north of the front in the lower to mid 40s, while lower 50s will be more common south of the front. Cooler air filtering in behind the system will result in temperatures dropping into the lower to mid 40s overnight.
Still looks like quasi-zonal progressive flow will transition to a more amplified pattern by late week as a western ridge and eastern trough develop.
MVFR cigs will give way to VFR sky condition later this afternoon across the NE OK TAF sites in the wake of a cold front moving into the area. Cigs will lower again to MVFR overnight (and prevail for the remainder of the TAF period)along withthunderstorm chances along this boundary as it lifts back north as a warm front overnight.
136 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances continue this evening, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Drier and cooler conditions will advance after midnight as the frontal boundary moves to the southeast. Dry weather will continue to prevail into Monday under high pressure.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the afternoon through this evening as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. Mid-level ridging remains in place aloft while a moderate pressure gradient remains at the surface as high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico interacts with weak low pressure extending from the Colorado front range to the Texas panhandle.
Current temps in the mid to upper 70s should continue to climb into the lower 80s in the afternoon.
86 Afternoon Update: Strong storms have formed out ahead of the cold front and are pushing through the middle of the region currently. In terms of the forecast for this system, many of the high resolution, convective allowing models (HRRR and HREF, for example) have done a fairly decent job representing the extent and timing of the convection, so those were relied heavily upon for the near term. Monday, the flow aloft will become more zonal under a weak low pressure trough across the Canadian Prairie.
856 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances will wane with passage of a cold front late this evening. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather will continue to prevail into Monday under high pressure.
This ridge shifting will allow a weak cold front to push into N GA tonight bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms to the state.
845 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Shower chances will wane with passage of a cold front late this evening. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather will continue to prevail into Monday under high pressure.
Surface analysis shows high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
734 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Windy conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area this through early this evening, with overnight lows falling to near freezing in many areas.
Consequently, a few isolated spots at higher elevations west of the Cascades will reach down to freezing and even lower in western Siskiyou County, but it is not widespread enough to warrant a freeze warning.
High pressure will build into central Indiana tonight into Monday, drying things out. Relevant parts High pressure will build in and allow skies to become mostly clear overnight.
540 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Aviation Section Updated Windy conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area this through early this evening, with overnight lows falling to near freezing in many areas.
High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will continue to move slowly eastward into the western Atlantic waters through Monday. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 80s across the eastern areas, while most of the interior and Gulf Coast climb into the lower 90s.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 79 61 81 53 / 40 30 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 77 58 75 51 / 50 20 70 90 40 Oak Ridge, TN 59 78 57 75 50 / 60 10 90 90 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 74 52 68 48 / 60 10 80 90 60.
Dry zonal flow through Monday will bring slightly warmer temperatures for the interior.
Winds will range from southwest to west at 5-15 kts before a cold front moves south between 19Z Monday through the end of the TAF period shifting winds to northerly at 5-15 kts. /Issued 319 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ Latest upper level analysis revealed weak ridging over the plains with weak troughing upstream and downstream, resulting in mainly zonal flow across the central CONUS.
A persistent area of high pressure centered over the Florida peninsula will continue to provide steady southerly winds this evening becoming light overnight. /issued 350 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ Sfc analysis shows high pressure continuing to ridge wwd over the nrn Gulf of Mexico/Gulf Coast this afternoon, maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow. The early part of the forecast continues the warm, dry and muggy conditions persisting into the early work week thanks to high pressure remaining to our east and weak ridging/zonal flow holding aloft.
754 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
542 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Current surface map places low over south central Montana, with trof/dry line extending into northeast Montana. Backdoor cold front also located across northwest-central South Dakota. Narrow axis of instability with MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg located between trof and backdoor front. closer to better forcing ahead of upper trof. With closed low development, widespread precipitation will continue through Monday morning east of the Black Hills.
222 PM PDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure will begin to influence the region Monday, bringing warming temperatures through the week. After today's seasonably mild temperatures, the rest of this week will see warming conditions as high pressure expands northward into the region.
/issued 155 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020/ High pressure continues across the area today as the high pressure center shifts east to over the Atlantic.
High pressure will begin to influence the region Monday, bringing warming temperatures through the week. After today's seasonably mild temperatures, the rest of this week will see warming conditions as high pressure expands northward into the region.
528 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Cold front moving in western Wyoming this afternoon.
Inflow CAPE of 500-1000 J/Kg may still enable a few additional storms later tonight along the cold front as it drops south. Any lingering precip from the previous night should be waning before sunrise as a weak cold front shifts south. After sunrise, another cold front will be quickly approaching the area from the west.
Latest surface observations showing a "pneumonia front" (backdoor cold front) riding south along the Lake Michigan shoreline just south of Milwaukee, with a 25-30 degree temperature drop as winds shift off the lake. A high pressure ridge will move across the area tonight through tomorrow morning with very dry conditions. Combined with light winds and temps should drop back down into the low to mid 40s. The trough/short wave associated with the system as it moves across the area will bring showers and isolated storms to the region. Precip will continue and be likely Monday night as the trough/short wave moves east through the area. With mid level troughiness building after this system, a chance of showers will remain across the area for Tue through Tue night with a small chance on Wed.
/GG/ It has been another warm but very pleasant day across the region as high pressure remains influencing our region.
900 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight and into Monday morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the frontal boundary that is nearly stationary across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas moves back to the north as a warm front.
As the ridge axis continues to move east onto the plains, a small disturbance moves in from the west this evening. We then enter northwest flow Monday as models suggest that another ridge will begin building across the western CONUS.
Temperatures are a little cooler than forecasted for parts of West Tennessee, so lowered them.
Drier and warmer conditions settle into the area Monday through the remainder of the week as a high pressure ridge builds over the region.
/Tonight/ Unsettled zonal flow pattern in place just to our n, as a slow- moving cold front drifts swd.
609 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Clearing this evening followed by another cold front overnight. Notably cooler conditions are expected the rest of the week with lows near freezing by the end of the week.
/Issued 245 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ Cold front continues to push slowly south this afternoon across east-central Oklahoma/far northwest Arkansas, currently located near a Welty, Coweta, Peggs, Siloam Springs line. Strong to severe storms will likely develop by late afternoon along advancing cold front near the I-44 corridor.
/issued 247 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas tonight into Monday. The 12Z NAM progs some haze across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley Monday so will mention haze across the extreme southeast portions of the CWA Monday as smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico approaches the area.
High pressure and a dry airmass will result in mostly clear skies tonight and a frosty start on Monday through many interior valleys.
Expect dry conditions overnight as we remain under the influence of high pressure. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60s. /27/ Prior discussion below: It has been another warm but very pleasant day across the region as high pressure remains influencing our region.
Upper air analysis showed an embedded wave northern Ohio to western Tennessee and a ridge over Texas with a weak northwest flow over lower MIssissippi Valley.
Mid-level clouds and isolated showers along the ID/NV border will diminish this evening as an upper trough exits the region.
Upper ridge over the area Monday with mostly sunny skies.
931 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
Best chances for strong convection come later Monday afternoon as a cold front moves into the area. /Issued 900 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight and into Monday morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the frontal boundary that is nearly stationary across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas moves back to the north as a warm front.
/NF/ Expect dry conditions overnight as we remain under the influence of high pressure. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60s. /27/ Prior discussion below: It has been another warm but very pleasant day across the region as high pressure remains influencing our region.
336 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf, providing continued light southerly winds. The nearly zonal upper air patter today will become more northwesterly oriented as a deep layer trough over Central and Eastern Canada and U.
A backdoor cold front was moving to the WSW through the local area on the leading edge of a slightly enhanced pressure gradient associated with the high. Increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
and Tuesday Hudson Bay high pressure was building into the western Great Lakes region this morning. Highs on Tuesday should reach the lower to middle 50s, except mid to upper 40s lakeside.
Overnight lows tonight will generally sit in the lower to mid 40s.
Inflow CAPE of 500-1000 J/Kg may still enable a few additional storms later tonight along the cold front as it drops south. Any lingering precip from the previous night should be waning before sunrise as a weak cold front shifts south. After sunrise, another cold front will be quickly approaching the area from the west. Temps overnight will drop into the low/mid 50s. A cooler and drier pattern will be in the forecast Wed through Thurs in the wake of the previous day's cold front. Benign conditions and comfortable afternoon temps in the low 70s can be expected.
less gusty conditions) and cooler highs in the 50s and 60s should keep RH values higher than the previous couple of days - still dry, but an improvement.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s across most of the area (except lower 80s along the coast) with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
Cooler conditions begin on Tuesday and continue through the rest of the forecast period.
The trough will exit to the east tonight bringing a temporary end to precipitation.
An upper low is expected to develop over southwest Canada today, with several waves of energy undercutting that low and moving across the Northern/Central Plains. However, for Tuesday, as upper low shears southeast over the region, Some thunder could materialize with diabatic heating. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through the period. The 500mb weather map will likely show a high amplitude ridge extending from northern Mexico through ID/MT and north of Alberta. At the surface, cool high pressure will be slowly building in from the northwest behind an exiting trough moving into MN.
The Evening Update: Beautiful stretch of wx for Norcal next couple of days with highs in the low to mid 80s/lows in the low to mid 50s in the Valley, and highs in the 70s/lows in the 40s in the foothills. A complex low pressure system over the GOA/NErn Pac will bring a couple of fronts into the Pac NW, but dry weakening fronts into Norcal Mon and again on Wed. JHM Dry zonal flow through Monday will bring slightly warmer temperatures for the interior.
SHRA/TSRA is expected to affect C and Srn terminals after 00z along and ahead of an advancing cold front. This will be in conjunction with the cold front that will be further south than it is today, though moving slowly.
The best areas of locally one half to one inch will occur in western Minnesota where deeper moisture and better surface convergence along the frontal boundary and low pressure system exists.
Windy conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area this through early this evening, with overnight lows falling to near freezing in many areas.
This ridge shifting will allow a weak cold front to push into N GA tonight bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms to the state. Warm front will lift north of the area late Monday night into Tuesday followed by a cold front approaching the northern zones Tuesday evening. Front clears the rest of the area on Wed with windier and cooler conditions filtering in its wake.
Monday night, a warm front will be lifting northward. This will be in advance of the main cold frontal passage. Near term temps, looking rather warm, particularly our overnight lows which will be in the lower 60s. Cooler Tuesday night behind the aforementioned fropa.
321 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Much cooler conditions are in store for this week.
Little change in our overall pattern with high pressure accompanied by limited moisture below 850 mb expected through this forecast period. A large and deep layered trough will dig southward and press the tenacious ridge axis to along the archipelago of Cuba.
/issued 250 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020/ (Tonight) The potential for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening remains the highlight of tonight's forecast. (Monday) As an 850mb thermal ridge dominates, afternoon highs Monday around 100 look likely, for most of West Central Texas.
(This evening through Monday) Slow moving cold front, extending from near Benjamin to just west of Wichita Falls, Texas to Purcell and just south of the Tulsa metro, is expected to become stationary early this evening, not too far from where it resides now. With increasing flow over the Rockies and lowering pressures across southeast CO and northeast NM, stalled front will begin lifting north as a warm front overnight and tomorrow morning. As upper trough progresses over the central and northern Rockies and into central/northern Plains early Monday, associated cold front will begin surging southward toward the region.
High pressure then returns for Monday. Monday will be dry with mostly clear skies as high pressure dominates during the day. High temperatures for Monday should be around the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the lowlands, with some of the more northern areas and higher terrain in the low to mid 60s, and highest terrains in the 50s. Low temperatures should be in the 40s for the lowlands, with mid 30s to low 40s in the mountainous areas. Upper level disturbance will cross Tuesday bringing rain to mainly the southern half of the area as low pressure tracks through the TN Valley.
Upper air analysis showed an embedded wave northern Ohio to western Tennessee and a ridge over Texas with a weak northwest flow over lower MIssissippi Valley. Upper level wave will track east and allow the broad ridge to slowly drift east through Monday and Tuesday. Several disturbances will deepen a trough over east CONUS.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 61 81 53 72 / 20 20 70 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 58 75 51 69 / 10 60 90 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 78 57 75 50 69 / 10 70 90 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 52 68 48 64 / 10 80 90 60 40.
1148 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020 Clearing this evening followed by another cold front overnight. Notably cooler conditions are expected the rest of the week with lows near freezing by the end of the week. An upper-level trough tracks south from the upper Great Lakes this evening allowing cold air to spill over the area. A towering 850-mb ridge takes hold on Monday. The 850-mb ridge works to steer an incoming low from the Central Plains off to our south Monday night and through Tuesday. This looks to have a small warm front, perhaps becoming a stationary front between the two lows, that could spawn some showers or thunderstorms.
Upper ridge over the area Monday with mostly sunny skies. Upper low approaching the Pacific northwest on Tuesday.
313 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A cold front will move through the area early Monday, which will bring a few morning showers along with colder air. Withe the midnight update, raised sky cover slightly based on the high cirrus moving over most of NY now. Dry cold front will push through this evening with a wind shift and cold advection. Secondary wave on Monday will probably trigger some light showers, mostly over the higher terrain away from the lake, with a smaller chance for NEPA. Drier air moves in Monday night with guidance now giving lows in the upper 20s, with dew points in the lower to middle 20s. A slow moving low pressure system will track through the Mid Atlantic region during the short term period.
142 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 High pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, will provide unseasonably warm temperatures through the the first part of the upcoming week.
312 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 One more day of heat then the cooler weather finally returns tomorrow. A cold front arrives Tuesday morning bringing highs back down into the 80s for a couple of days.
1250 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Shower chances will wane with passage of a cold front late this evening. Drier and cooler conditions return Monday with building high pressure. Dry weather will continue to prevail into Monday under high pressure. Colder than normal temperatures will be maintained Tuesday and Tuesday night as an elongated upper-level trough continues to dominate the East Coast.
Dominant 500 mb high pressure centered over northern Mexico and extended over the BRO CWFA will shift west, allowing mid-level troughiness and an associated weak cold front to slip into the Lone Star State.
Aloft the LLJ will edge into the mid-Mississippi River Valley along the eastern side of the low system, and will be the main forcing for storms north of the warm front.
Warm advection/moisture transport continues to strengthen this morning north of the warm front. By late afternoon, axis of very strong instability with sfc CAPE in the 4000-5000 range will be oriented from south central into northeast OK ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cooler temperatures will be in place on Monday behind a cold front.
Overnight, a cold front will drop southward through western and central Texas, reaching the I-10 corridor right around sunrise.
Ridging will continue to dominate the local weather pattern, thus, another calm but warm day is to be expected for Southeast Texas. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the upper 80s, with some locations possibly reaching into the low 90s, particularly over areas north of I-10 and west of I-45. Monday night into Tuesday, a mid to upper level trough will sharpen as it moves eastward across the Great Plains. The cold front will continue moving through the area and off the coast Tuesday evening.
Very dry air will filter in across the region behind the dryline and this combined with the west wind should help boost temperatures a few degrees warmer than guidance. A cold front will rapidly push south after sunset this evening and make it through the forecast area around or shortly before midnight. Jordan Temperatures cool considerably behind the cold front, dropping Tuesdays max temperatures into the 70s.
255 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 High pressure sets up to our north today. Low pressure moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Cold front moves across by Tuesday night. Gusts should stay under 30 mph, and will be mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge. As the low moves into the Ohio Valley expect rain to move in from the west/southwest overnight, with best chances across the mountains of SW VA/NC/WV.
Short wavelength upper ridge was located over the Dakotas. A short wave trough was located from southern ALTA into western ND. Precipitation was located under a north-south 700 mb theta-e ridge. Theta-e ridge and precip will shift east today through Tue. ALTA upper low will then move southeast late tonight and Tue. Low level moisture will increase east of the upper low and destabilize the atmosphere as cold air aloft moves over low level moisture Tue afternoon. Temps will be cooler than first half of May normals with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows around 30.
Additional moisture is possible later this week, along with another chance of frost or near freezing low temps. The environment is favorable for supercells with mesoanalysis indicating 1000+ j/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kts of deep layer shear, and veering winds in the low levels. Moisture content is not an issue with this system as south/southeast low level flow has been pushing dew points into the lower 50s and PWATs above season norms. Precip may be slow to pull out of the forecast area as wrap-around moisture behind the low combines with remnant low level lift and instability. Guidance has also trended cooler for highs. An upper low centered around Hudson Bay pushes a large trough into the Eastern U. while a ridge tries to build over the West Coast.