Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1130 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 A surface and upper level trough associated with high pressure centered over the Montana/Saskatchewan border is making its way across the area this morning. Thursday, the area can expect to see southerly winds on the back side of the area of high pressure which will now be centered over Minnesota and Iowa. Cold temperatures will continue, with highs generally in the lower 20s and lows generally in the single digits above zero.
Cleared sky grids of cloud cover today with satellite imagery showing clear skies with high pressure building in, otherwise no changes needed. Continuing breezy conditions leading to patchy blowing snow across portions of central and eastern North Dakota will be the highlight of the short term period.
1128 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (18Z TAFS) Strong cold front currently moving through SE NM and the Permian Basin. (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper-level trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, kicking off a few -SHRA, little of which is making to the surface, judging by the 00Z KMAF sounding. To the north, mesoanalysis shows the next cold front entering the Texas Panhandle at 07Z. Tonight, temperatures plunge precipitously as the front surges through, with all but the Rio Grande Valley dropping to freezing overnight, and a hard freeze for most locations. Models consistently develop precip over the northwest zones this evening, then ESE along the front overnight and Thursday morning, w/best chances along the front from Van Horn through the lower Trans Pecos Thursday morning.
1001 AM PST Wed Jan 19 2022 The arrival of a frontal system on Thursday will bring more snow to the high elevations and mix of rain and snow to the lowlands.
1132 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Today will be much colder behind a cold front that moved through our area. The cold air will be reinforced on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 20s. Wind chills will remain in the low teens throughout the day.
A strong cold front is moving south across the area early this afternoon and as of 2 PM, the front was entering far northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland counties. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s but with the wind, it will feel considerably colder. Cannot rule out some slick spots developing, primarily on bridges and overpasses during the morning hours.
However, with the ridge axis remaining well to the west overnight, winds will likely stay up in the 5 to 15 mph range overnight. With temps falling well below zero for most areas, wind chills in the 20 below to 30 below zero range are likely, with the lowest values expected for western and northern areas. Even light return southerly flow developing from the west on the backside of the high should be enough to hold wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range.
1121 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Strong arctic cold front is sliding south through the region early this morning. After the frontal passage, forecast soundings are still indicating that the low levels will slowly moisten up across southern portions of the forecast area. Beyond Thursday night, long wave trough is still expected to setup over the eastern U.
With surface dewpoints falling throughout the night, lows are expected to range from the single digits(F) in central Kansas to possibly the lower teens(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. Arctic high pressure dropping southeast through the Upper Midwest will reinforce the colder air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas Thursday.
1205 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (Today and tonight) After a couple of very mild and spring like days to start off the week, winter returns with a vengeance as a strong cold front barrels down into west central Texas today. Otherwise, as mentioned above, the main story today will be the Arctic cold front sweeping down into the area. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s tonight, with some spots possibly dipping into the teens.
We are awaiting the arrival of a short wave trough Thursday that should break the inversion, as well as providing snow and rain to help cleanse the air. Mixing out of the inversion will change snow to rain below 4000 feet except in wind-sheltered valleys in eastern Oregon where there will be a slight chance of freezing rain instead. Slight chance of freezing rain for KBKE Thursday morning.
258 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic through Thursday with moderating conditions.
(18Z TAFS) Strong cold front currently moving through SE NM and the Permian Basin. (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper trough crossing AZ today will slowly swing over NM tonight and Thursday as it pushes down into Mexico. This trough will pass across the region Thursday night. As it does the next upper trough will swing down across ID.
Subsidence in the wake of the strong PV anomaly moving across southern OK should further limit precip chances as sub- freezing air makes it into central and southeast OK late this afternoon.
1023 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure has pushed offshore the southeast U. This will lead to rising temps, with highs today closer to normal in the low to mid 70s.
1121 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front has moved through all three terminals and gusty winds, likely with light to occasionally moderate turbulence, will persist for the remainder of the daylight hours. A cold front currently moving through the Texas Panhandle will move through the South Plains later this morning. This cold front will primarily bring much colder and blustery conditions today. A cloudy and cold day is in store Thursday as dense overcast encompasses the CWA with a diminishing northeasterly breeze as the positively-tilted mid/upper-level trough axis departs to the region.
With surface dewpoints falling throughout the night, lows are expected to range from the single digits(F) in central Kansas to possibly the lower teens(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. Arctic high pressure dropping southeast through the Upper Midwest will reinforce the colder air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas Thursday. Temperatures will struggle through the 20s remaining below freezing with the continued upslope nature of the surface winds.
(This evening through Thursday) Summary: Very cold tonight and tomorrow with wind chills approaching dangerous levels late tonight, then struggling to get above freezing tomorrow afternoon. Persistent cloud cover along with northerly surface flow should keep temperatures below freezing for most of the region tomorrow afternoon (with southern Oklahoma / north Texas being the exception as temperatures warm into the mid 30s).
The areas with a greater chance for the higher end snowfall amounts will be across the northerly flow snowbelts, including western Allegan and Van Buren counties, and Big and Little Sable Points near Ludington and Pentwater. Snow showers should diminish Thursday afternoon and evening as high pressure slides in from the west.
251 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 The cold front that moved through overnight continues a southeast track. Afternoon temperatures are in the upper teens in the north to the lower 30s in the southeast corner. Highlights: 1) Cool on Thursday with morning wind chills of -5 to -10 2) Gradual warm up for the weekend A ridge will move in for Thursday keeping cold air in place.
224 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 After afternoon highs topped out in the lower 60s, drastic changes are on their way. A cold front positioned over western TN into AR will slide eastward tonight. Latest guidance has slowed the arrival of the subfreezing temps which will limit the freezing rain potential. Current thinking is that there may be some light freezing rain or drizzle closer to sunrise, but accumulations remain below 0. Overall, the impact from the freezing rain/drizzle is lower with the latest forecast update.
127 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross the region through tonight, bringing a chance of light rain, and then snow showers, with an inch or two of snow possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The expected cold front is moving eastward across Ohio at this time. This will concentrate the higher QPF near and to the south of Uniontown, Morgantown, and New Martinsville through tonight. This trough will also intensify cold advection, with temperatures falling off into the teens in most locations by 12Z.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the ern U. otherwise VLIFR/LIFR conditions will slowly improve to IFR at CMX and MVFR at KIWD by late afternoon/early evening as a low pressure system shifts east. With the wind, freezing spray will continue to be a problem for this forecast period. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ243>251-264>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-240>242-263.
955 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Weak low pressure will pass to our north tonight as it pulls an Arctic cold front through.
Worth mentioning is a small window for light freezing drizzle, generally as drier air filters over top of low-level moisture overnight. Temperatures tomorrow morning start out in the teens and 20s, and we will struggle to reach the freezing mark in the afternoon.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper trough crossing AZ today will slowly swing over NM tonight and Thursday as it pushes down into Mexico. This trough will pass across the region Thursday night. As it does the next upper trough will swing down across ID.
Thus it is still possible for the precipitation to end with a little wintry mix of either snow or freezing rain.
Patchy freezing fog is possible tonight into Thursday morning.
Offshore flow began to develop last night thanks to high pressure building over the Great Basin and lower pressure at the coast.
Afternoon temperatures will be a bit warmer, as gusty southwest winds develop as well.
524 PM PST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure to continue for the next couple of days, leading to continued chances of morning Tule Fog.
635 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross southeast through the region this evening. Cold dry weather will follow from Thursday into the weekend as a high pressure system slowly translates from the Great Plains to Upper Midwest to southeast Ontario. Temperatures ahead of the front are remaining in the lower to middle 40s and will likely linger warmer than what the forecast has, even in the immediate short term. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows with generally clear skies and light northerly winds will see temperatures drop to the lower teens.
The cold high pressure off to the northeast will move through the Midwest over the next 48 hours, resulting in a couple of chilly nights in central IL.
After afternoon highs topped out in the lower 60s, drastic changes are on their way. A cold front positioned over western TN into AR will slide eastward tonight. Latest guidance has slowed the arrival of the subfreezing temps which will limit the freezing rain potential. Current thinking is that there may be some light freezing rain or drizzle closer to sunrise, but accumulations remain below 0. Overall, the impact from the freezing rain/drizzle is lower with the latest forecast update.
The latest model trends continue to support the immediate lakeshore region for the highest accumulations tonight into Thursday so no changes with the headline at this point. The areas with a greater chance for the higher end snowfall amounts will be across the northerly flow snowbelts, including western Allegan and Van Buren counties, and Big and Little Sable Points near Ludington and Pentwater. Snow showers should diminish Thursday afternoon and evening as high pressure slides in from the west.
159 PM PST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure in the Great Basin will result in generally light valley winds through Thursday.
The cold high pressure off to the northeast will move through the Midwest over the next 48 hours, resulting in a couple of chilly nights in central Illinois.
816 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Rain, and then snow showers will be possible tonight with a crossing cold front. Latest sfc analysis shows the approaching cold front slightly west of a line running from Franklin to Zanesville The front should be through PGH by 10PM and east of the ridges around midnight. 1-2" are forecast in general SE of the aforementioned line with slightly higher amounts in the ridges.
529 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Rain, and then snow showers will be possible tonight with a crossing cold front. Latest sfc analysis shows the approaching cold front just beginning to cross eastern OH counties. The front should be through PGH by 9PM and east of the ridges by midnight. 1-2" are forecast in general SE of the aforementioned line with slightly higher amounts in the ridges.
Main concern is the low wind chills continuing tonight through Thursday mid morning. Otherwise, a high pressure system continues to push in from the northwest, keeping conditions dry through Thursday. With the high moving in and low/upper level trough continuing to push to our east, this gentle pressure gradient will give us light and variable winds this evening through Thursday night.
Sfc winds are also expected to turn more to the WNW with gusts near 20-25MPH at times as the cold front begins to move thru the area behind the exiting precip.
528 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (The rest of this afternoon/evening) Cold front pushing through far southeast Oklahoma and west-Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon hours across aforementioned area with light freezing rain/sleet developing, transitioning more toward sleet/snow. (Tonight through Wednesday) The bigger issue will likely be the bitterly cold conditions that will develop tonight as arctic high pressure continues to build into the region.
401 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross southeast through the region this evening. Cold dry weather will follow from Thursday into the weekend as a high pressure system slowly translates from the Great Plains to Upper Midwest to southeast Ontario. Temperatures ahead of the front are remaining in the lower to middle 40s and will likely linger warmer than what the forecast has, even in the immediate short term. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows with generally clear skies and light northerly winds will see temperatures drop to the lower teens.
453 PM MST Wed Jan 19 2022 Freezing drizzle has largely transitioned to flurries and light snow across the region, as upper sections of the moist layer cool below -10 C. The freezing drizzle has had no issues accumulating on surfaces, particularly untreated roads and sidewalks, so conditions are quite slick. Cloud cover should remain abundant into this evening, with ground temperatures below freezing, so plan on conditions remaining treacherous in spots even during the evening commute, despite the transition away from freezing drizzle. It will be a chilly night with gradual clearing and lows largely in the teens for the flatlands, and locally single digits for the lower river valleys and the high mountain valleys.
628 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 The cold front that moved through overnight continues a southeast track. Afternoon temperatures are in the upper teens in the north to the lower 30s in the southeast corner. Highlights: 1) Cool on Thursday with morning wind chills of -5 to -10 2) Gradual warm up for the weekend A ridge will move in for Thursday keeping cold air in place.
535 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 Rain, and then snow showers will be possible tonight with a crossing cold front. Latest sfc analysis shows the approaching cold front just beginning to cross eastern OH counties. The front should be through PGH by 9PM and east of the ridges by midnight. 1-2" are forecast in general SE of the aforementioned line with slightly higher amounts in the ridges.
Sunshine and light winds are expected Thursday, with most locations remaining below freezing.
140 PM PST Wed Jan 19 2022 High pressure to continue for the next couple of days, leading to continued chances of morning Tule Fog.
/issued 258 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022/ High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic through Thursday with moderating conditions.
Could be some slick spots on roads late tonight, especially bridges and overpasses in our northern counties, but the strong northwest winds overnight should help to dry out roadways once precip ends from west to east after midnight.
This time, however, this trough will be quite a bit stronger with more (though still modest) moisture to work with.
(The rest of tonight) A band of light to moderate mainly snow developed this afternoon, with the highest intensity near the Fayetteville area. However, given the potential for some lingering liquid on roadways from the precip earlier, and temps plummeting below freezing, there remains a threat for flash freezing on roadways where the heavier precip occurred. Lacy (Tonight through Wednesday) The bigger issue will likely be the bitterly cold conditions that will develop tonight as arctic high pressure continues to build into the region.
942 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 A cold front will cross southeast through the region this evening. Cold dry weather will follow from Thursday into the weekend as a high pressure system slowly translates from the Great Plains to Upper Midwest to southeast Ontario. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows with generally clear skies and light northerly winds will see temperatures drop to the lower teens.
514 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Summary: Very cold tonight and tomorrow with wind chills approaching dangerous levels late tonight, then struggling to get above freezing tomorrow afternoon. Persistent cloud cover along with northerly surface flow should keep temperatures below freezing for most of the region tomorrow afternoon (with southern Oklahoma / north Texas being the exception as temperatures warm into the mid 30s).
Lows settle into the low to mid 50s, with perhaps a few upper 40s in normally colder spots of far northern Lake/northwest Volusia counties. (Previous Discussion) High pressure off the Southeast coast will continue to drift out to sea, with the ridge axis extending back to Florida. Favorable boating conditions are expected as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature over the local area.
Dual-pol radar has indicated a fairly quick transition from freezing rain and/or sleet to snow, while the surface freezing line has advanced south down into east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Lacy (The rest of this afternoon/evening) Cold front pushing through far southeast Oklahoma and west-Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon hours across aforementioned area with light freezing rain/sleet developing, transitioning more toward sleet/snow. (Tonight through Wednesday) The bigger issue will likely be the bitterly cold conditions that will develop tonight as arctic high pressure continues to build into the region.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the ern U. With the wind, freezing spray will continue to be a problem for this forecast period. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ243>251-264>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-240>242-263.
The back edge of the cold frontal boundary is moving into eastern Kentucky and stretches to the southwest over middle Tennessee into northeast Mississippi. Near freezing to below freezing temperatures are now over western Kentucky and west Tennessee with snow and light freezing precipitation as far east as Clarksville Tennessee. A cold front will pass through the region after midnight and winds will then shift from light and variable to southerly and then northerly.
Temperatures warm to the teens and twenties fairly rapidly with the onset of winds overnight and should further warm above freezing by late Thursday morning. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit warmer, as gusty southwest winds develop as well. Though fairly low confidence, the arrival of showers and warmer temperatures aloft over frozen surfaces could mean there is some potential for freezing rain on frozen ground surfaces at some terminals, with KHVR being the most likely to see such an occurrence.
This high pressure system is accompanied by an arctic air mass, that has brought temps upstream of the UP as low as -20F already across ND and northern MN. Today, upstream high pressure will slowly drop SE through the day as winds back more westerly through the day. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the ern U. Winds begin to relax through the day today as they back more westerly with sfc ridging moving overhead.
Temperatures warm to the teens and twenties fairly rapidly with the onset of winds overnight and should further warm above freezing by late Thursday morning. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit warmer, as gusty southwest winds develop as well.
Clearing skies tonight will allow temperature to crater into the lower teens.
It was a different story in the lower elevations however where calm or near-calm winds prevailed. A consensus of the high resolution models show the strongest signal for this across the North Bay Valleys, the southern portion of San Francisco Bay, and possibly across the northern Santa Clara Valley. Offshore flow began to develop last night thanks to high pressure building over the Great Basin and lower pressure at the coast.
The back edge of the cold frontal boundary is moving into eastern Kentucky and stretches to the southwest over middle Tennessee into northeast Mississippi. Near freezing to below freezing temperatures are now over western Kentucky and west Tennessee with snow and light freezing precipitation as far east as Clarksville Tennessee. A cold front will pass through the region after midnight and winds will then shift from southerly to northerly. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 25 35 22 42 / 20 10 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 23 32 19 39 / 40 10 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 21 33 18 40 / 20 10 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 19 31 16 36 / 30 10 30 30 10 VA.
1120 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 The cold front that moved through overnight continues a southeast track. Afternoon temperatures are in the upper teens in the north to the lower 30s in the southeast corner. Highlights: 1) Cool on Thursday with morning wind chills of -5 to -10 2) Gradual warm up for the weekend A ridge will move in for Thursday keeping cold air in place.
The strong low pressure system to the north has now moved over Quebec and should reach the east coast early tonight. A second cold front will get pulled through the region this evening with westerly wind turning more northwesterly forcing the remains of a lake convergence band down through the area. Expansive area of strong high pressure around 1045mb will build southward into the Plains Thursday with the cold northwesterly flow persisting through the day. High temps will likely hold in the teens through the day as the thermal trough remains overhead. The suite of hires still mostly suggests it will stay offshore so will keep the lower pops and accumulations in play.
1045 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 (The rest of tonight) A band of light to moderate mainly snow developed this afternoon, with the highest intensity near the Fayetteville area. However, given the potential for some lingering liquid on roadways from the precip earlier, and temps plummeting below freezing, there remains a threat for flash freezing on roadways where the heavier precip occurred. Lacy (Tonight through Wednesday) The bigger issue will likely be the bitterly cold conditions that will develop tonight as arctic high pressure continues to build into the region.