Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD AROUND AND INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHED FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
1134 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MID EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH MOISTURE FILTERING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING IN THE EAST SOUTHEAST UPPER FLOW AROUND WELL OFFSHORE HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FL. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ON WED.
AND A PACIFIC TROUGH OVER' SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WYOMING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TONIGHT THE CUT OFF LOW WILL EJECT EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVR THE DESERT SW IS MOSTLY CUT-OFF.
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL FINALLY BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
1227 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL COME WITH A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
The low clouds/patchy fog will likely continue over aforementioned area through the overnight hours with MVFR conditions likely. /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ Another nice autumn day out there this afternoon as ridging prevails aloft and at the surface. and from the east at the lower levels. We should stay dry with ridging aloft thru midweek.
715 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON MONDAY A BROAD H500 RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE GIVING DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THAT HAS KEPT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN HAS FINALLY WANED AND ALLOWED FOR A BREAKUP OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SAVE FOR THE RIDGES. EVEN HERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE ERODES EAST OF THE RIDGES AS FLOW THERE BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. FRIES DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 70S FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND WEST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SHUNT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
930 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015 SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ Another nice autumn day out there this afternoon as ridging prevails aloft and at the surface. and from the east at the lower levels. We should stay dry with ridging aloft thru midweek.
1229 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OREGON, OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THERE IS HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EDGES IN OVER US, AND SAVE FOR A FEW HARMLESS CUMULUS OVER THE EAST SIDE, THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH A BIT TONIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS, BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILD ALONG THE COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS FURTHER MONDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER ALONG THE COAST, ALTHOUGH NOT DRAMATICALLY SO.
/ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUED SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THIS GOOD FETCH OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING WELL EAST OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY. DRY AIR WAS STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIDGING AND NORTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE DETACHED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
623 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Pattern across the USA today remains rather amplified, but also a bit muddled as a deep trough across the western CONUS competes to dominate the general flow aloft with a ridge over the East Coast that has with it a couple of cutoff low spinning around under it. Otherwise, as the work week progresses the trough to our west is expected to cutoff and then slowly move east out of the Four Corners over the later half of the week. This will provide the region with a warming trend over the next several days as southerly winds return to the Lower Missouri River Valley.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN EVER SO SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION.
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1004MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND AN ASSOCIATED PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN GOLDEN AS HIGH TEMPS REMAINED COOLER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Pattern across the USA today remains rather amplified, but also a bit muddled as a deep trough across the western CONUS competes to dominate the general flow aloft with a ridge over the East Coast that has with it a couple of cutoff low spinning around under it. Otherwise, as the work week progresses the trough to our west is expected to cutoff and then slowly move east out of the Four Corners over the later half of the week. This will provide the region with a warming trend over the next several days as southerly winds return to the Lower Missouri River Valley.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS FOR CONTINUED MILD DRY WEATHER.
The deep cut-off upper low is spinning off the Northeast FL coast this evening. " While the upper low will move slowly but steadily out to sea, surface features will move little with lower levels remaining moist.
AMPLE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS REMAINING ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO THE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WAS PRODUCING A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER ALABAMA. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF ALABAMA BY SUNRISE MONDAY TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY MONDAY AND KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAWING PLUME OF ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC NORTHWARD INTO BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY NUDGE INLAND. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BENEATH DEVELOPING INVERSIONS AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY'S.
753 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IR LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH MOISTURE FILTERING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING IN THE EAST SOUTHEAST UPPER FLOW AROUND WELL OFFSHORE HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FL. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ON WED.
ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER POTENT LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER A BIT ON COVERAGE AND HOW THICK THE HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL BE ON MONDAY. BUT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND.
627 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
1224 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THAT APPEAR TO BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
319 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
354 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. EXPECT ONE MORE COOL DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS CLOUDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ABATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXITING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY THIS UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.
651 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
354 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
AND SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER TO COMPLICATE MATTERS A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN BENEFIT FROM A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A LATER ARRIVAL OF RAIN SHOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD RISE INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 60S IF NOT AROUND 70. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. WITHOUT A PUSH OF REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE WHERE A LATER DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES.
INCREASED INSOLATION COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WILL FACILITATE DEEPER MIXING AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD EASILY REACH THE MID 70S. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, PRECIP LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG THE LLJ AXIS, BEFORE SHEARING NORTHEAST MORE RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS TO CANADIAN ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S.
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO EDGE EAST BUT A TUTT LIKE FEATURE WILL TRY TO PREVENT THAT.
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Early this morning, an area of showers and thunderstorms extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward. These storms should continue to progress slowly east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation should remain south of the area.
149 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 FAIRLY WEAK FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BREAK DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND.
347 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE. REPLACED BY AREAS OF FOG UNDER AN INVERTED RIDGE AXIS. WHILE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all locations. Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.
155 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SAT-SUN: FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON WHERE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SAT BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR SUN.
THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF.
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
323 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AS NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY ATTEMPTS TO PARTIALLY PHASE WITH PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRECEDE THIS FORCING ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE ONSET ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWARD AND BUILD WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEEP TROUGHING RESULTS IN A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES NORTHWARD. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES.
SAT-SUN: FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON WHERE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SAT BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR SUN. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
300 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 As mentioned yesterday AM, high pressure will shift east to the East Coast today. An area of low pressure out over the Plains this morning will drift east into nrn IL by Saturday. A "dirty" ridge of high pressure will continue to be anchored along the eastern seaboard through the remainder of the weekend.
644 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AS NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY ATTEMPTS TO PARTIALLY PHASE WITH PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRECEDE THIS FORCING ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE ONSET ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ON FRI AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVR THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACNW. OUR LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE PAC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND MORE OF THE EL NINO INFLUENCE KICKS IN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
206 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST.
The best chance will be across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside.
241 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR COUNTIES.
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
Highs today mainly around 100 look likely, given slightly warmer 850mb temperatures over West Central Texas this afternoon, as compared to yesterday afternoon.
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
426 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE POPS EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S.
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
321 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN AFTN. DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT. REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN CONUS RDG. CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE WY/WRN SD SAT.
THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE POPS EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA.
CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW DEGREES FURTHER. OVERNIGHT DEWPOINT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S. LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
A trough will cause TS to develop mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z. A short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South Plains by max heating tomorrow. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing off the NOAM west coast. With the mid- tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated TSRA can be expected there.
514 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TO THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.