Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S.
AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH RATHER GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH ST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE LOW SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND FAIRLY SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Overnight we will see a marked temperature change as a cold front drops southward through northern and central MO.
REGION IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. ONE MORE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTH SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT MOST AREAS BUT THE COLD AIR WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BRINGING WARMING AND DRYING. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH HAS FORCED A LL COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WITH AN INITIAL COMPANION SOUTHERN PERIPHERY TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PAC NW. CREATING A STRONGER FGEN RESPONSE OVER THE WESTERN FA AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORCED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. LIKELY LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT ARRIVES WITH THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH. SUPPORTING WARMER READINGS THAN IF DECOUPLING WAS TO OCCUR.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA LYING UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE SFC MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT HELD IN CHECK WITH MORE OF A WRLY COMPONENT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR WEST.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL RETURN THE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
A backdoor Canadian cold front has begun to push over the Continental Divide this afternoon. Gusty northeast winds along with cooler air will begin to make its way south and west through western Montana tonight. Snow-levels will quickly rise through the day Tuesday as the warmer air-mass pushes its way north, turning all snow over to rain, for exception of the highest elevations. Areas that typically see the higher wind gusts in these situations are locations around Yellow Bay.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING FOR A WARM, SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
142 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
309 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THIS LOW FADES AWAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES, POSSIBLY NEAR THE HOMESTEAD AREA. LOOKING AT THE MODELS, IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW DEVELOPS EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO IT IS MORE LIKELY A THERMAL LOW FORMING OVER THE INTERIOR.
318 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING PARKED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY LAKE/SEA BREEZES.
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALL RESULTS IN A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S WITH UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
1236 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO SRN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON. AND PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW DUE TO A WEAK INCOMING COLD FRONT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
1236 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. BY GIVING US MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHERE STRONG LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT NEARING FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE WINDS BECOMING NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
243 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
Light freezing drizzle has also developed in the Great Falls area this morning, so have added it as well to much of the plains areas. Models indicate at least scattered showers should persist across much of southwest Montana during the afternoon as the cold front pushes a bit farther south into that area, so have increased afternoon POPs there as well.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 70s in the north with mid-upper 70s in the south still looks on target. Tonight a cold front will approach from the northwest, reaching the Ohio River around sunrise.
320 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE THE WAKE OF THIS LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME STRENGTHENING AND SHARPENING OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED.
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH (~10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG) TOMORROW AM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OK. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK SHORTLY AFTER LUNCHTIME TOMORROW.
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT TO THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND.
BECAUSE IT WILL FEEL QUITE COOL TOMORROW AS A CHUNK OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE MORNING. WHERE THE COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE. AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. FIGURE THAT AT LEAST THE I-64 CORRIDOR COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IN HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TO PROVIDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG JET STREAK OF 90-100 KNOTS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TUESDAY EVENING.
222 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA WITH WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN SE MINNESOTA.
THIS LEAD TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COLDER NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH BENEATH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AND GO A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TEMPS TODAY. WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR KPIR WILL HELP DRAW COOLER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD LIMITING MIXING.
WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA. H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW FREEZING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
400 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TO DEVELOP UNDER MOST CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
248 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO USHER IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MET IS THE LOWEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE REST OF THEM. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 540 DAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS.
405 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TO DEVELOP UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS RESIDED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ATOP THE RECENT FRONTAL SURFACE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
300 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A VERY HOT AND ANOMALOUS AIRMASS WAS UNDER THIS RIDGE AS THE KLBF UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED 12C. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MORNING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH COULD GIVE A PERIOD FOR COOLING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NC AND VA EARLY TODAY AND RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE EVENING. AND PROBABLY UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN - IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY.
321 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON TUESDAY.
But expect it to lurch northeastward tonight as another ua trough moves ashore over SoCal, then translate northeastward over, or just south of, the forecast area Tuesday night. The front is expected to move south to near the higher terrain by Tuesday afternoon. Mid and upper level subtropical moisture spreading north ahead of the ua trough will combine with low level moisture spreading northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico to put PWats above 1" over the eastern half of the forecast area. Heavy rainfall could be a problem, especially Tuesday afternoon over southwest Texas, then shifting northeastward over the Permian Basin Tuesday night within the deformation zone to the north and west of the ua trough.
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015 A sfc cold front that extends from the Great Lakes into Neb will continue to move south into the cwfa late tonight. Cold front to sweep through the remainder of the CWA early Tuesday.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THEIR INFLUENCE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
304 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
110 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A QUIET TUESDAY IS FORECAST WITH NOW WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHILE BEING MUCH COOLER FROM THE RECENT WARM SPELL WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
/ISSUED 307 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
445 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER CENTRAL NY.
WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT DUE TO THE RIDGING PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S DUE TO WEAK CAA UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
626 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND.
1000 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS ARE ALREADY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH COULD SEE UPPER TEENS.
805 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 20 51 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 16 49 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 17 48 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 11 46 26 53 / 0 0 0 0.
Clear skies and cooler temperatures are expected overnight.
659 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
1030 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MARINE STRATOCU MACHINE IS UP AND RUNNING AS COLD AIR MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS.
335 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 A WARM DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PLAINS TODAY AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE 60S. OVER THE REST OF THE REGION I EXPECT 70S MOST OF THE PLAINS EXCEPT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE M/U60S WILL PREVAIL.
802 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 347 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ THE QUESTION AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN CHALLENGING. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN PAST MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INDICATED LOWS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES.
605 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
923 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
/39 DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA.
637 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
1008 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS -- THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON WAS LAUNCHED ABOUT AN HOUR PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A LARGE-SCALE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT FORECASTS -- EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH WILL BUILD FARTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
730 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERES OVER THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOST OF US SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. /ISSUED 515 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
The center of the retreating arctic high pressure was well to the east by this afternoon allowing return flow to develop over Kansas. For example, 850 mb temperature at KMHK goes from -3 C at 18UTC today to 16 C 24 hours later! Lows tonight will be considerably warmer than this morning and the temperatures shouldn't fall much after 06Z given the magnitude of the warm advection. For Friday, expect building heights with the 500 mb ridge centered over the Rockies. Downslope air with a lee trough in the high plains and southwest flow across Kansas. With very warm air, expect highs to be much warmer, especially over the southwest counties of the forecast area.
LATEAST SFC ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO C TX. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT DUE TO THE RIDGING PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S DUE TO WEAK CAA UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
AND REMAIN VRB ~4-5 KTS THRU FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD THE LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE EXTREME NERN LOCALES WITH READINGS JUST DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH THE NERN 1/4 OF THE AREA PROGGED TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING.
1020 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
SFC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NM WILL CONTRAST WITH REDUCED SFC PRESSURE IN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE AND SUPPORT GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WIND FLOW FRI AFTERNOON.
A BIGGER DIURNAL RANGE AND WARMER IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. SO I DECIDED TO LEAVE THE HIGHS AROUND 70 ALONE.
BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS IN/NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS TO ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. A BIGGER DIURNAL RANGE AND WARMER IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. SO I DECIDED TO LEAVE THE HIGHS AROUND 70 ALONE.
WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
/ISSUED 150 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE (1036 MB) WAS CENTERED OVER STL AT 18Z WITH A CONTINUED N-NELY COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE TN VALLEY.
558 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAA REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF SEEMED TOO COLD WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT. AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME MINOR MELTING. WHICH ARE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS INTO SAT. RAW MODEL TEMP CONSENSUS IS SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NAM MOS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER END OF FOR MINS AS WELL. THE QUESTIONS BECOME HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR BELOW 3KM SO NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS ANTICIPATED EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 06/24Z. SFC WIND SHIFT FROM N TO SW IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 06/15Z AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD OF MID STATE. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HELD AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SFC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.