Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 PATTERN OVERVIEW: BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWING PUSHING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS RISING HEIGHTS/RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD. THIS RIDGING ALONG WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY WEEK/S END. ANY DIURNAL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
604 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY ADVECTION WILL HERALD MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 The upper ridge that has settled over Texas most of July will remain in place the rest of the week and likely through the end of the month. For the next couple of days though the ridge will flatten enough to allow a few disturbances to move across the area. Even though temperatures are a few degrees cooler than yesterday, most locations will still reach near the 100 degree mark. A similar setup is expected Wednesday before the ridge strengthens again over the area late this week.
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DECENT INVERTED TROF W/LLVL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST THIS AFTN TOWARD THE REGION, EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH CONVECTION DVLPNG AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MODELS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WL DVLP THIS AFTN ACRS THE ALLAGASH AND SLIDE THRU NRN MAINE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A CORRIDOR OR DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AT 2 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S AT 2 AM WITH UPPER 50S JUST UPSTREAM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AIR AND FAIR SKIES THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH STILL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. AVERAGE POSITION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE. IN THE LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK FOR E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS A STEADY EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS KANSAS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH AND WILL BACK DOOR OVER AR AND MAY SHIFT SFC WINDS FM SW TO NE FOR KELD/KMLU LATE WED. /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/ UPPER-RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
253 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. COLD FRONT WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE. EXTENDING INTO CNTRL NY/NEPA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN A TYPICAL LATE JULY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE MARITIMES. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SEEMS TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW.
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ The low clouds over the Hill Country dissipated this morning before reaching KJCT. At the surface, a cold front was located from the south plains, extending northeast into central OK.
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. COOLER WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS. HIGH RES MODELS STILL INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INITIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT BUT REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A cooler and drier airmass will settle over the area today and give us a day with, wait for it, no chance for rain. This will make for much more comfortable levels of humidity when combined with the lower 80 degree air temperatures forecast.
THIS INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD. A VERY PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN THIS ONSHORE FLOW THAT VARIES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ELONGATE ALONG THE COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CWA WILL ALSO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
414 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO THE SE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS KY FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF TN. AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH TO END THE WORK WEEK.
140 PM MST TUE JUL 21 2015 A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ONLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR SOME LOCALES ON THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. UPPER TROFFING SETTING UP ALONG THE CA COAST HAS ALREADY SET UP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA AND THIS FLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY THINNED OUT THE MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. 2 INCHES AND AT 1 PM SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
The airmass ahead of this feature doesn't look to be particularly unstable, though given locally high levels of wind shear associated with the low level jet, some strong/severe thunderstorms are possible. With the surface front returning back north as a warm front, we will also need to watch for briefly rotating storms should anything move along the front.
SINCE FA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO TIME AND EXTREMELY WEAK, PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN MORE BY AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF AMS THAN BY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE BIG PICTURE AS 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE RIDGE ITSELF. THE WEAKER AND MORE PINCHED 500 MB HIGH APPEARS TO BE INDUCING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LAND TO SEA PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME 30+ MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
106 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 ANOTHER TYPICAL SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/ SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUMMER DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE HEAT INDICES AT 103 TO 107 DEGREES. PLENTY OF WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT IS KEEPING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY A FEW STORMS. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD ENOUGH THAT THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST SHARPENS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME NORTHWEST FLOW INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG WAVE MOVING UNDERNEATH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEST COAST.
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CWA HAS BEEN MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROMOTE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. BUT 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TUESDAY RESULTING IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAP. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE.
341 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE TAKING PLACE INTO THIS EVENING AMID AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GO NEARLY CALM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ALONG AND N OF I64 WITH LOW STRATUS THE RULE IN S WV AND SW VA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH MODELS HOLDING ONTO HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TONIGHT STRONGLY CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE TO MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROF AND DRIER AIR SWEEPS EASTWARD.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY. 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST OPENING UP AND SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AS UN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PAC NW AND NORCAL COASTS.
A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHILE REMNANT SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DROPPED MORE RAIN DOWN IN BARBER COUNTY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARMER DAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY. A DRY PATTERN WILL MOVE IN AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL DISCOURAGE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
321 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
257 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LAST NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT STINT OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPANDING SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FRI/FRI NIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
336 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
617 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE AVAILABLE OBSERVING STATIONS EAST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH. WITH THAT SAID THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD SPARK MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 UPPER LAKES IS STILL WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALOFT WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT.
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET ONCE AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO TRENDING EAST DURING THE PM HOURS.
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BOTH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS LEAVING OUR REGION IN NW FLOW.
254 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 220 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS AND IT WILL SPREAD OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECAST TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S. DEEP MIXING AND THE LARGE HIGH WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS. BUT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT SFC WARMING. DECIDED TO GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT I INHERITED. WITH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
DIGGING 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND U. WEST COAST BUILDS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS CENTER FROM AROUND A 5900 METER RIDGE WED TO A 5950 METER RIDGE FRI. THE BUILDING RIDGE ALSO DEEPENS THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE DEEPENING TROUGHING ALSO HELPS TO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AND THE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COMING TO A STOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUN. SOME RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND PATTERN AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ALONG THE U.
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FROM YESTERDAY. THESE CLOUDS WERE MAINLY FROM REMNANT CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS. DUNN /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH INTO THE PLAINS. IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS NOW SETTLED OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING. CONTINUED DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP ENSURE THIS FACT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
145 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 NOT AS HOT TODAY WITH TEMPS AT 145 PM IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE WESTERN US LIES GENERALLY WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED THE LANDFALLING TROUGH EVEN AS IT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
101 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT APPROACHING CLE THIS MORNING WITH A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE EAST. PREV DISCUSSION -> COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE. WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WI AND A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO OK. AS EXPECTED TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON THE COOLER SIDE. AS THESE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL PROBABLY SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. HIGHS TO TODAY EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S.
144 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
359 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING EAST THROUGH KY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PROPELLED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY.
439 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. Nocturnal cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few degrees cooler.
244 AM PDT WED MAR 16 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. EPAC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
340 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS REACHED THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE FRONT WILL START TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A few high clouds are expected to stream across the area today, otherwise high pressure should provide another pleasant day for the lower Ohio valley.
A weakening cold front will push into the southeast CONUS today.
245 AM PDT WED MAR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
Temperatures more typical of mid March will return today in the wake of the upper level trough lifting across the Great Lakes region.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE AND WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
435 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROFFING OVER ERN US TRANSLATES TO A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR FCST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
429 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
654 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
SO EXPECT A DAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. THE GFS IS THE LOWEST ON QPF WHILE THE WRF IS VERY BULLISH ON LIFT AND QPF. UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER THAN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL VORT LOBE AND JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST.
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND BEHIND IT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
434 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 An upper trough is currently over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest resulting in westerly flow over the CWA. Temperatures on Thursday will cool to near normal values as a cold front moves through the area during the day.