Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Perhaps a degree or two warmer toward the MO/ARK state line. Fog and low cloud ceilings have developed overnight and this morning with the lowest visibilities on top of the Ozark Plateau. Visibilities at the higher elevations are near a quarter of a mile to half a mile at times. The large upper level low pressure system currently over the western U.
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAILING AREAWIDE.
134 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Wet, dank weather continues as sfc waves of low pressure and upper level disturbances continue to bring periods of light rain/drizzle northeastward. An upper low over the eastern Rockies will shift into the Midwest (IA/MN border) by Tue 12z/6am. This will push a front through our area Mon night finally kicking the low clouds/precip off to the east. Colder air wrapping around the low will keep high temperatures in the 40s with some low 50s along the MO/AR line Tue afternoon. There is decent agreement on another upper level low moving into the central/southern Rockies by Sat.
300 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE. /ISSUED 1034 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAILING AREAWIDE.
245 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RETURNS UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY WEAK. AN UPPER LOW STRETCHED FROM UTAH/NEVADA NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING HAS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. AND PALMER AND CHEYENNE RIDGES. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AN EXTRA PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL ROUND THE LOW AND PUSH INTO COLORADO THIS EVENING TURNING QG MOTION UPWARD AGAIN.
1205 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARD MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING.
257 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
338 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE LOWER KEYS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH ALIGNED THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
Most of the short term will be dominated by the influences of a closed upper level low that will work its way slowly across the northern Rockies and Plains states. Short wave energy ejecting northeast from the low will bring additional areas of mainly light rains today and Monday, especially to western KY and far sern MO.
THIS AREA IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CONTINUED COLD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PIVOT AROUND WYOMING WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR COUNTIES. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH DRYING WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS OVER OUR COUNTIES. MORE MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARMER FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE AT THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
1246 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
154 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS TO THE AREA. WE START OUT QUIET THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOSED LOW OVR THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS AFTN WILL EJECT EWD AND OPEN QUICKLY ACRS NE ON MON AND NEWD INTO THE NRN LAKES BY WED MORNING. MID LVL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WRAP ARND MSTR SHIELD THEN PIVOTS EWD LT TUE NIGHT/WED AM W/BAND OF SHRA/SHSN APPEARING MORE LIKELY ESP FAR NORTH DOWNSTREAM OF FVRBL WRLY FLW LK ENHANCEMENT. SFC RIDGING FOLLOWS AND XPCD TO EXPAND W/TIME OVER THE OH VALLEY W/DRY AND SEASONABLE WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. EXPECT INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
142 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TODAY. THEN RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
Meanwhile, as the main system pushes east, a weak front will push across southwest Montana (a slightly warmer and more unstable air mass is in place there), and may be able to spark a weak afternoon thunderstorm or two from Lemhi County Idaho through southwest Montana. Meanwhile, a few showers may linger over the higher terrain in the morning, before giving way to pleasant afternoon.
320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD RETREATS EASTWARD. RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE AWAY TO THE EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO GO FROM EAST TODAY TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGHING OVER AZ/NM LATE THIS WEEK WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO SETX.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 7-12 MPH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 40S SIMILAR TO A CONSENSUS BLEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GO WITH HIGHS AT/ABOVE WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND CONSENSUS LOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MID WEEK.
327 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS SLIDING SOUTH WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
338 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTLINE RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AND A DEEP TROF IS NOTED OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE DEPARTING WAVE AND DEVELOPING TROF ALONG THE MEXICAN/TEXAS COASTLINE WILL SHIFT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION AREAWIDE.
This will bring a chance for showers and cooler temperatures for the beginning of the work week.
317 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
308 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALIGNED THE RAIN CHANCES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BE AND LIMITED THEM TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
635 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.
327 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
507 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS MILD IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST BUT COOLING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NW (LAKE COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCES A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.
329 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
1207 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUS INTO THE BOUNDARY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE A PERTURBATION EJECTS OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH. A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED. DECENT CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH MARCHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRI/FRI NIGHT. COOLER AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
317 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Still expect a yet another dry and warmer night than last as winds remain out of the south which will allow some mixing which should keep temperatures up.
249 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
340 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Breezy return flow will continue in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range over the next 24 hours under SW flow aloft. An Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will move south to the US/Mex border by tomorrow then slowly swing east. After this trough weakens and lifts NE a secondary trough will move down over Srn CA. This trough may take a similar track along the border and into the area bringing another shot at rain late in the week.
LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME THE CIRCULATION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH WHICH SHOULD FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TOWARDS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST INTO WYOMING WITH DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
142 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AUTUMN ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS WEEK.
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MILDER SW FLOW DEVELOPING. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH THE MID TEENS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NW AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
318 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
148 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODIFY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUD COVER OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS MOVING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THICKER EAST OF FERNLEY/SILVER SPRINGS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 222 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/ THE CORE OF AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE TAHOE BASIN WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSHING EAST OVER UTAH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.
156 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODIFY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
249 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Latest surface map showed low pressure centered over west central Minnesota, with a trailing cold front southwest into western Kansas. Pressure gradient remains tight over our area between the low and a high over the Carolinas. However, the pressure gradient will keep winds around 10 mph much of the night over central Illinois, but lower in the southeast part of the CWA away from the low. Temperatures will be coolest across the southeast with the lower winds, mainly in the mid 40s for lows, ranging to the lower 50s west of I-55.
101 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MODEST RIDGING WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MOVING BY ALOFT.
The cloud cover and associated increase in moisture will keep morning lows tomorrow slightly warmer than this morning.
143 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
105 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AUTUMN ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS WEEK.
314 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 15% TO 35% RANGE.
RIDGE. LOOKING FOR EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON TO RELAX OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS THE EASTERN U. RIDGE SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN U. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND AS THE PLAINS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
217 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AUTUMN ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MID SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON OFFERING JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING. SYNOPTIC SCALE Q-G LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
225 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AUTUMN ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS WEEK.
150 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.
300 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING PRESENT TO ACT UPON THE LIMITED MOISTURE THAT IS ALOFT. AFTER THIS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURE AGAIN AND A LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
158 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
-HOWERTON WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRI. PERSISTENT LEE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
127 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
634 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODIFY. IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
145 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH A PRODUCE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR FROM THE TROUGH.
THE WEAK TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT, KEEPING WINDS UP AND LIMITING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AS TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AREAWIDE AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S. AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS KEEPS OUR LL WINDS OUT OF THE SE. THE PESKY UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AS IT IS FORCED EWD BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
318 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MONTANA WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
326 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 302 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ A warm and breezy day is on tap for the region as the pressure gradient tightens between surface ridging centered over the mid- Atlantic and a strengthening lee trough over the central High Plains. as ridging aloft prevails downstream from southwest CONUS upper low. Eventually the southwest CONUS upper low will open up and lift across the Plains late this week.
255 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN A NICE FALL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
SPLIT FLOW TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO A DISORGANIZED TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SPREADING OVER THE REGION.
116 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN A NICE FALL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
328 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.
300 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A VERY DRY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN PREVAILS TODAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT IS SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE COMING DAYS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SIERRAS AND WESTERN ROCKIES. IN ADDITION, WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING FROM THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.
308 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE TAHOE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA CREST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL BE BETWEEN THIS SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING TROUGH AND A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD T0 THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MIDWEEK.
DRY HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACRS THE REGION UNDER CLR SKIES WITH A FEW STRATOCU POSSIBLE AT SRN SITES THIS AFTN. A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. MODEST RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL AMPLIFY AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER NEVADA DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORE CORNERS AREA.
IT WAS QUITE A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MID TN WITH LOTS OF SITES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PARTIALLY SHEARED TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS JUST OFFSHORE. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL AREAS GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS IN PLACE. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW- LEVEL JET TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT CREATING INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER BUILD IN OVER THE AREA ON FRI THEN SHIFT SE OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
107 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT STRONG MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
438 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.