Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures ranged from the lower 50s across southeastern Kansas to the lower to middle 40s across the eastern Ozarks. General overcast skies along with a stout southerly flow is keeping temperatures just a bit warmer this morning. Rather warm conditions can be expected today as a developing low pressure out west will keep the southerly flow well established. Scattered showers are expected to develop through the afternoon and especially into this evening as the parent trough and low pressure swing into the area from the west. The rain chances will begin to drop off from west to east Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the cold frontal boundary pushes through the region. Overall, generally looking at around a quarter of an inch of rain from this system with the better rain chances/higher amounts residing along and east of the Highway 65 corridor.
The SE surface winds will be advecting warmer air in under the clouds so we have warmed some highs a category or two.
However, the GFS/RAP remain cooler. If temps/dew points remain near freezing, some freezing rain will continue to be possible. Given the uncertainty in the exact thermal profiles, with changes in the lower atmospheric profiles of even a degree potentially impacting precip types, confidence is lowest in that area along/north of I-90 corridor. Brief surface ridging will build into the area Wednesday Night into Thanksgiving Day.
1125 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Hydro An area of low pressure will develop over Colorado today and track northeast tonight. it looks more snow than freezing rain late tonight into Wednesday morning. but northeast counties may very well stay below freezing for much of the day.
1248 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure this afternoon and tonight. A warm front Wednesday.
A weak cold front will usher in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs decrease around 5-10 degrees from today.
Downstream of this cyclone, southwesterly flow aloft has overspread the area, advecting copious mid/upper-level moisture across the region. Farther east better radiational cooling and generally calm winds were providing for another round of subfreezing readings. On the surface models agree that a near 1000mb low pressure centered in southeast Colorado will fill 15mb over the next 36 hours as it lifts into Illinois. Deeper moisture out ahead of the low and weakening cold front will move slide into the Midsouth today. but the low RH and continuing fuel moistures will provide for an elevated fire danger.
235 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
The easterly surface wind on the southside of the high pressure area moving into VA/NC area will slowly draw in moisture from the Atlantic. Dewpoints will be on the increase with values in the mid to upper 40s across the FL panhandle and SW GA and the lower to mid 40s west of this area. Looking upstream, a surface cold front will move through the ARKLATEX region overnight which our impacts from this will be an increase in high level clouds towards dawn.
Short term guidance is consistent in showing a dry slot enter into northeast Kansas by early afternoon, with precipitation redeveloping along the front and also due to wrap around moisture behind the low, indicating a break in showers will be possible in the afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the low this afternoon will bump temperatures into the mid-50s to low 60s. Winds shift from the northwest near midnight behind the front, and temperatures tonight will be cooler than the previous night.
255 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) A cold front will push across West Central Texas, during the next 18 hours, and bring cooler temperatures and light winds from the northwest or north.
Ridge rebuilds for Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures.
Stratocu across the north a result of the low-level moisture trapped under the inversion. The southern edge of this cloud bank is creeping southward this morning as a weak backdoor cold front encroaches. Cloud coverage will diminish tonight as ridging continues to build over the region and warmer air moves in aloft. This along with lighter surface winds will allow for a strong radiational cooling night with temperatures falling to the low 20s / upper teens. Temperatures will climb back up to seasonal levels and rain chances will increase over the course of the afternoon ahead of the warm front. Temperatures will drop little Wednesday night with showers and substantial cloud coverage as the warm front crosses the region.
316 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure tonight. A warm front Wednesday.
and Wednesday A weakening upper low lifting northeast from the southern Plains will bring a light to moderate snowfall to central and northcentral Wisconsin tonight through Wednesday evening.
The SE surface winds will be advecting warmer air in under the clouds so we have warmed some highs a category or two. southerly winds will be 10-15 knots and more gusty over parts of Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma and shift with the passage of a cold front. Later on today, an approaching short wave and associated cold front will bring an increasing chance for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather.
248 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure over the area will move east as frontal system pushes into the region Wednesday. A cold front now over the Central and Southern plains states will move east rapidly over the next 24 hours pushing increased cloud cover and precipitation into North GA in the short term. The highest POPs in the forecast right now are right around 30 percent between 00z-06z Thu.
Upper ridge will bring partly cloudy skies and mild wx the rest of the day. Pacific cold front just off the northwest coast will come inland today with pcpn starting in eastern Oregon this evening, then western Idaho after midnight, and over all areas Wednesday morning, decreasing in eastern Oregon Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today behind the cold front.
High pressure moves in Wednesday, with dry weather and a bit more sunshine.
316 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Current radar and surface observations indicate that all freezing or frozen precipitation has move east of the Red River into Minnesota. Main impact now will be the light snow moving over areas that may have received some patchy freezing rain this morning where temps had fallen as low as 28 F. Very little diurnal temperature change over the next 24 hours and overnight lows should remain just below freezing with daytime highs tomorrow struggling to rebound with little solar, possibly reaching the mid 30s by mid afternoon.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the current primary upper circulation lifting northeast across Nebraska, with the trough extending southward over West Texas. Model guidance is in good agreement that a second vort max rounding the base of the trough overnight will help sustain shower activity into the day tomorrow.
Drier weather returns under a weak high pressure ridge.
256 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 A mid level low/trof over the central Plains today is progged by the models to begin to fill as it lifts toward the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Secondary energy to the west and south of the trof is expected to wrap around its southern periphery Wed, helping to sustain lower surface pressures in the general vicinity of the PAH forecast area. Thus, model instability parameters suggest lightning will be hard to come by, especially east of the MS River, both overnight with the large scale lift and Wed with the approach of the cold front.
Tonight will see a cold front currently west of the DFW/FTW metroplex bring some late night showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Left the highlights up in that area to account for this possibility. Will be keeping an eye on the rest of the highlights this morning to see if any others need to be pulled down also. Moisture wrapping around a closed low now pushing into southwest Kansas will continue to bring rain and snow showers to much of western Colorado this morning.
Rain, sleet and some freezing rain has been reported with this band. Temperatures are largely in the mid 30s, but the wet bulb temperatures are cold enough to still allow for some freezing. The main complicating factors are surface temperature (partially governed by intensity of precipitation) and max wet bulb aloft temperature (largely governed by the degree of WAA in the low to mid levels). With temperatures above freezing anyway, probably won't see too much accumulation today even if the p-type remains snow north of I-94. Models still don't have a good handle on warm layers aloft though, some ranging from sub freezing (HRRR, GFS) and some 2-3C above freezing (NAM, RAP).
Another beautiful fall day expected across South Florida as we remain under the influences of a ridge aloft and high pressure across the southeastern US.
Currently we have dewpoints in the lower teens across the area.
116 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather to the area through this evening. However, the high will depart to the east tonight, allowing an area of low pressure to track toward the southern Great Lakes for the middle of the week. A trailing cold front will approach Wednesday afternoon, eventually crossing the region by late Wednesday night.
/issued 838 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016/ Dry stable conditions associated with high pressure surface and aloft over the area will maintain pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area the remainder of today with ample sunshine expected. After a cool start temperatures will rebound quickly under full sun and a northeasterly wind flow with highs returning to near seasonal levels with highs climbing into the lower 70s north, and mid to upper 70s central and south. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with northeast winds around 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less expected.
Will be keeping an eye on the rest of the highlights this morning to see if any others need to be pulled down also. Moisture wrapping around a closed low now pushing into southwest Kansas will continue to bring rain and snow showers to much of western Colorado this morning.
Low pressure will bring periods of rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Precipitaton may start as a period of snow or freezing rain across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and Michigan later tonight into Wednesday morning.
336 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Clouds are making their way south across portions of the Panhandles as a 700 hPa trough axis continues to move to the east. Light northwesterly winds during the overnight will allow temperatures to drop to below freezing across most of the Panhandles with mid 30s in the SE TX Panhandle.
the upper low across Northern NM lifts northeast today and tonight.
More substantial showers will advance across northern Missouri early this afternoon as the lower atmosphere saturates, and most of the high-resolution guidance favors the mid to late afternoon hours for any precipitation over the western parts of the CWA, with the east filling in this evening. This particular feature is evident on water vapor imagery rotating around a deep upper low anchored off the coast of British Columbia.
Much of eastern Oklahoma will be dry this afternoon before shower and thunderstorm chances increase by this evening as the main upper trough and surface boundary approach. Will maintain the highest temperatures over there.
An upper trough and associated vort max approaching the ArkLaTex late tonight will be responsible for a transition to southerly flow with temperatures not nearly as cold as the past few nights.
Weak boundary will move south on Wednesday (may stall or seep slowly southward in the afternoon), but enough cooler air in the mid levels to keep temperatures from rising too high in the afternoon. Minimum temperatures a blend of guidance (regular and bias-corrected), with cooler temperatures than MOS over most inland areas for lows each night and mainly a blend of MOS for high temperatures on Wednesday.
851 AM PST Tue Nov 22 2016 Weak high pressure aloft will create slight warming and fair weather through Wednesday.
Today Through Wednesday Night An area of low pressure is moving east of the Rockies at this time and the upper ridge that has been over Arkansas is moving east. The upper low will move into southeast Nebraska late this afternoon and southwest flow will increase over Arkansas. The trough axis will move through Arkansas Wednesday morning. Another upper ridge will build over the Plains Wednesday afternoon and night. The approaching system will bring increased southerly flow and moisture into Arkansas ahead of a cold front. Expect warmer temperatures with the increased warm air advection this afternoon. The cold front is expected to be in eastern Oklahoma by this evening and in central Arkansas Wednesday morning.
Drier air in the low levels continues to keep precipitation from reaching the ground early this morning across eastern Iowa and western Illinois. If any does occur across the northwest counties, road surface temps indicate light freezing rain or drizzle will not be an issue through the early morning. Timing these specific periods is difficult this far out and will leave the higher level of detail to later shifts. WAA aloft and above freezing surface temps should keep precipitation in the form of rain tonight.
Southerly flow along the trough has maintained cloudy conditions for a good part of the day over the James River Valley.
1014 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 Spitting trough will continue to shift se of the fa today. Mild conds can be expected over the sw half wed, with much cooler conds to the ne where a frontal boundary will persist. Another mid level trough will push toward the region wed night, with light snow possible late wed night ne WY, more so into thur.
229 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east over the region tonight and Wednesday.
The attending cold front will be crossing LA and bringing with it chances for rain, highest across the northwest portion of the CWA.
333 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east over the region tonight and Wednesday.
249 PM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 The upper low has scooted northeast into south central Nebraska this afternoon and have seen a decreasing trend of showers over the mountains and plains. Progressive ridge aloft will move Colorado later tonight and Wednesday with an increasing Westerly to Southwest flow aloft. Warmer temperatures expected across lower elevations with some increase in high level moisture during the afternoon.
A cold front will move through the region bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Austin and San Antonio areas. An upper level trough over the Central and Southern Rockies is about to move out into the High Plains. Upward forcing will increase ahead of the upper level trough today with streamer showers possible this morning and thunderstorms this afternoon as instability develops. Upper level trough will move to the east across the Plains in the short term dragging a cold front through South Central Texas.
239 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Only mid to high clouds and a few stray showers this afternoon as the last bit of the upper ridge slides east out of the region. A few of the radar echoes just outside of the area were reported to produce sleet, which may be caused by the wide dewpoint depression at many sites leading to a wet bulb temperature below 32F in the low levels. Other than that, low level moisture will be on the rise over the next 24 hours as the upper trough moves eastward from the Great Plains. This may be largely in part to the very dry surface air and some of the precip may go to saturating the low levels before precip can really get going.
MVFR cigs will prevail through the TAF period as an upper level system and cold front move through the area. Much of eastern Oklahoma will be dry this afternoon before shower and thunderstorm chances increase by this evening as the main upper trough and surface boundary approach. Will maintain the highest temperatures over there.
159 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Aviation An area of low pressure will develop over Colorado today and track northeast tonight. it looks more snow than freezing rain late tonight into Wednesday morning. but northeast counties may very well stay below freezing for much of the day.
Gusty north to northwest winds will gradually subside early tonight as a surface cold front moves across central Kansas and western Oklahoma. Models this afternoon are in decent agreement with the low clouds lingering through much of the night but some clearing conditions will be possible towards daybreak across west central Kansas. Upper level ridging and large scale subsidence will then develop during the day on Wednesday which should result a mostly sunny afternoon. Given the 900mb to 850mb temperatures late day along with the mostly sunny conditions the highs should be near the seasonal averages for this time of year.
159 PM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 The upper low over Kansas with its associated trough will gradually move east and lift out through the late afternoon and evening hours with the midlevels gradually drying out through the course of the next several hours. The Wednesday night system is fairly progressive, but there is the potential that several inches of snow could be seen on the western facing slopes given increased midlevel winds and their orientation, so this is something we might want to keep an eye on for those with interests in the high country.
Progged low- level wind shears still favorable for the development of strong to severe storms with the passage of this cold front overnight, but there is still some uncertainty with regard to the location of the upper jet/limited instability. Scattered rain chances to linger into Fri with the next cold front moving on through to the coast.
Deep layered ridging will maintain pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area tonight and Wednesday with clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies again on Wednesday. On Wednesday the warming trend will continue as high pressure shifts slowly east off the mid Atlantic coast during the afternoon as an upper level trough and attendant cold front move through the lower and mid Mississippi valley. Mid/upper level trough will move across the eastern U.
/Issued 328 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016/ High pressure remains dominate today with abundant sunshine and a continued dry airmass. A cold front will move across the lower-mid MS valley late Wednesday along with an upper level trough.
Expecting warmer lows overnight as the airmass moderates with the onshore flow. Conditions will be a bit warmer along the immediate east coast and perhaps some L50s or around 50 degrees over normally cooler spots of the interior. High pressure along the eastern seaboard early in the period will venture off of the east coast ahead of an approaching weather system from the west.
333 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 We could see some re-development of showers/isolated storms across southeast Kansas into the evening hours with-in low level moist axis, as upper trough axis still west of the area provides lift over the area tonight. A cold front will race southeast across the area tonight as the upper level system moves to the northeast.
245 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Moisture rotating around the upper low over the plains states will continue to flow into the TN valley with increasing ci clouds. As the upper low/cdfnt moves east tonight the chc of pcpn will increase for areas west of the TN valley, however the atmosphere is still too dry to support any pcpn over our cwa.
RH's this afternoon have plummeted to the lowest levels of the week with readings between 20 and 35 percent presently. This low level dry air will be persistent into Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, south winds will slowly increase ahead of the approaching surface cold front. 20 with the lowest amounts in southeast Kentucky where less than 0. Regardless, GFS and NAM are both consistent on the low level moisture, so will stick with the rain chances.
220 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure tonight. A warm front Wednesday.
236 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area on Thanksgiving day.
219 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Early afternoon surface map showing the low center with our storm system over central Kansas, with a warm front arcing into far southern Illinois.
A lengthy high pressure system stretches from north of the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians. Mean layer analyses indicate mid to upper level ridging centered over western Cuba, highlighted by the large expanse of dry air sampled by the GOES water vapor channel. Northeast to east winds average 14 to 16 knots at exposed marine locations across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and dewpoints in the lower 60s.
rain will expand into the area tonight and Wednesday as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. Rain ends late Wednesday night as a cold front passes with mainly dry and seasonable conditions returning through the first half of the weekend.
1249 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure over the area will shift east by tonight.
Despite warm air advection beginning, the low-levels should decouple and winds will go calm overnight. Model soundings showing a pretty stout mid-level layer of dry air that will be tough to overcome as the warm front lifts north.
Then, a weak cold front will bring dry air into West Central Texas tonight. Winds will turn to the north tonight as a cold front moves through. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible later today along the dryline/cold front, generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line. Overnight lows will be cooler tonight behind the cold front, falling into the 40s for most areas.
Low pressure is currently over central Kansas. Radar returns are mostly virga across Wisconsin as there is a significant amount of dry air at the lower levels. Models are in fairly good agreement with low level layer wet bulb temperatures just below freezing with surface temps dropping just above freezing, except upper 30s near Lake Michigan. Rain is expected through the morning and may linger into the afternoon until the low passes through the region. Surface air temps won't drop below freezing until well after the precip ends, so slippery roads are not expected. High pressure will slide across the area, but clouds will likely hang in tight. Some of the guidance still shows the low level moisture somewhat deep, maybe enough for spotty drizzle.
Gusty west winds this afternoon will subside around 00Z then shift from the north around 06Z with the passage of a weak cold front. Upper trof continues to move slowly across the Central Plains. As the upper trof passes a weak dry cold front will drop south into the CWA tonight and Wed. Yet another upper trof will pass by to the north in the progressive flow. but stronger cold front south into the CWA.
06 Wx map shows high pressure over the Eastern U. with low pressure over the TX/OK Panhandles, with the pressure gradient increasing across the Western Gulf into SE TX/LA this morning. Quite the gradient of temperatures ranging from near 40 across Central Louisiana with calm winds, to the lower 60s across SE Texas. Temperatures not expected to fall much this evening and overnight as the SE to S flow continues ahead of the approaching cold front.
A fast moving disturbance will bring gusty winds to much of the region Wednesday with north winds persisting along the lower Colorado River Valley Thanksgiving Day.
318 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region today through Wednesday, before sliding offshore Wednesday night. A weak cold front crosses the region Thanksgiving Day. SCT-BKN CI arrives by later Wed as the mid-level ridge axis slides offshore and the low level wind becomes s. A mid-level trough and associated sfc cold front arrive from the W after midnight Wednesday night resulting in increasing clouds.
259 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight before shifting offshore Wednesday.