Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor satellite imagery showing a short wave trough near Yellowstone National Park. MLCAPE is around 500 j/kg, thus should see an increase in convection over the higher terrain, which will spread across portions of the plains late this aftn and evening.
With the scattered rainfall and cloud cover, highs in the low 80s are expected but could be a bit higher if an isolated location manages more sunshine than most. Strong ridging just offshore of the east coast, will continue to slow the eastward progression of a closed low centered over the southern plains and its attendant broad trough which reside over the forecast area. This troughing over the region, in addition to daytime heating as highs climb into the 80s, will continue to yield a good coverage of showers and storms across the forecast area this morning through at least this evening.
Will keep likely PoPs in the forecast overnight as several upper disturbances continue to pivot around a closed upper low. The aformentioned upper low will continue to track east over the ArkLaTex region on Thursday, transitioning into more of an open wave as the system begins to lift north and east.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the area. Warmer temperatures will return tomorrow with the majority of the area in the lower to mid 90s with the exception being coastal locations in the upper 80s.
A mixture of mid and high clouds continues to rotate cyclonically into SW Kansas, around a nearly stationary closed low over eastern Oklahoma. Decreasing clouds are expected late Thursday as the cyclone finally moves away. All pops are zero Thursday night as strong high pressure aloft over Arizona begins to build toward Kansas. After 10 am Thursday, expect breezy N/NE winds of 15-25 mph on the back side of the departing cyclone's circulation. Late week the upper low will weaken as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley and an upper level ridge will start to build across the western United States. A weak surface boundary/cool front will cross southwest Kansas on Thursday as an upper level trough moves over the Western United States ridge axis and out into the Northern Plains.
303 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Tonight and Tomorrow: The closed low is now located over western AR this afternoon with surface convection spinning all around it. Some isolated severe storms have developed within our CWA due to a weak trough located over the LA coast. Overnight, there may be some isolated showers that continue working their way around the upper low while temperatures will fall into the mid 60s. For Thursday, with the closed low a little closer overhead and another disturbance set to move across the area, convection is again anticipated. The cold front associated with the closed low will also move a little more into our area as well and will help to keep much of the area in the low to mid 80s overall.
1017 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020 As a cold front continues to push east through the region, scattered showers over northern Wisconsin will slowly move off to the east this morning as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. An 850 mb low level jet is bringing ample moisture into the Upper Midwest ahead of a weak cold front moving east through Wisconsin. Fog will dissipate after sunrise when the lower boundary layer begins to mix. The cold front looks to stall across northern WI during the day with rain over north-central WI through the overnight hours. With the added moisture to the soil and strong high pressure, patchy fog is again possible overnight Wednesday. A strong area of high pressure moves into the region on Thursday with dry conditions lasting through the weekend.
Another weak cold front may move south, across West Central Texas, on Thursday. This front will do two things: 1) it will bring cooler air into West Central Texas, from the north and 2) it will possibly initiate showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of a line from Ozona to Mason. As indicated, in the Thursday discussion above, the cold front may initiate showers and thunderstorms, across the Northern Edwards Plateau and the Northwest Hill Country, late Thursday and Thursday evening.
As the upper low merges with a trough Thursday night it will begin to finally move east.
The stout 500mb trough that's been loitering over the southern plains continues to meander eastward over the ArkLaTex today. To the east of this feature, continual warm air advection has kept surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s on the leeward side of the low. Overnight, as the trough churns north northeast, increasing rain chances will develop westward across the northern half of Missouri and eventually into western Missouri and eastern Kansas through the morning. This cold front and the building upper ridge over the Four Corners will promote the final eastward progression of the low that's been lingering the past few days.
An upper low remains centered near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border through tonight then breaks down to an open wave on Thursday and begins to become absorbed into an upper trof which amplifies while advancing from the Northern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. A weak surface trof which currently extends from near the coast of the western Florida panhandle to interior southeast Mississippi will shift slowly northward through the day, moving north of the forecast area this evening. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast, then highs on Thursday will be mostly in the upper 80s.
202 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 19z surface analysis had cold front from northeast SD to KPHP to KDGW. Water vapour showed upper low south central Canada with trailing trough into western WY. Trough bringing post frontal synoptic lift over 100-500J/kg MLCAPE. Thursday, lingering showers will exit the CWA as upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will ooze into the area this afternoon and overnight, but winds will be fairly light. /issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ An upper level trough is over the southcentral part of the country. The upper trough will move over the Mississippi River Valley on Thursday with a cold front coming into West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday afternoon mainly across the higher terrain.
Satellite and water vapor imagery show moisture and clouds streaming southward through the Panhandles as flow rotates around the closed low. The low will continue pushing eastward through the night. Tomorrow afternoon looks to dry out as high pressure sets in and the closed low opens up.
A mixture of mid and high clouds continues to rotate cyclonically into SW Kansas, around a nearly stationary closed low over eastern Oklahoma. Decreasing clouds are expected late Thursday as the cyclone finally moves away. All pops are zero Thursday night as strong high pressure aloft over Arizona begins to build toward Kansas. After 10 am Thursday, expect breezy N/NE winds of 15-25 mph on the back side of the departing cyclone's circulation.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ A large, closed upper low forming the western portion of an omega block continues to stay relatively stationary over Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. The upper trough will finally transition back to an open wave and slowly begin to move northeast, which should keep rain chances mainly confined to the northern half of the area.
729 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Aviation - Showers and thunderstorms through this evening - Showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night - Fair and much cooler weather this weekend - Showers and thunderstorms through this evening - An upper level disturbance approaching our area from far northwest OH will combine with the lake breeze to cause continued convective development through this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night - An approaching cold front will combine with an upper level system moving in from the southwest to bring more convection Thursday. - Fair and much cooler weather this weekend - A high pressure ridge will build in behind the cold front and bring fair wx with much cooler temps for the weekend.
Moisture channel remains in place as the upper low continues to spin over the southern Plains.
Temperature forecast looks good with lows dropping to the lower and middle 60s by daybreak Thursday. Perhaps the most active terminal for reduced flight conditions will be cha which is right on the eastern edge of a stream of deeper moisture and lift with the Arkansas low pressure system.
This in association with a cold front and weak H5 impulse. For tonight, expect a clearing trend and decreasing winds as the cold front continues to move southeast. Tomorrow will also be cooler as cold air advection continues through the day. A western CONUS ridge amplifies late this week.
253 PM PDT Wed May 27 2020 High pressure will continue hot weather with moderate to high heat risk through Thursday.
18Z surface data has weak low pressures across upper Michigan and in central Iowa between KADU and KPRO.
(Thursday) Another weak cold front may move south, across West Central Texas, on Thursday. This front will do two things: 1) it will bring cooler air into West Central Texas, from the north and 2) it will possibly initiate showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of a line from Ozona to Mason. (Thursday Night) As indicated, in the Thursday discussion above, the cold front may initiate showers and thunderstorms, across the Northern Edwards Plateau and the Northwest Hill Country, late Thursday and Thursday evening.
Overnight, skies will grow more overcast as a cold front approaches from the west and patchy fog may develop as temperatures cool amid steady dewpoints.
640 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Lobes of energy rotating westward from a a stalled upper low spinning over the Ozarks will support continued showers through Thursday early evening, especially across southeast Kansas.
830 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms, will remain possible this evening as a low pressure area slowly moves closer to the area.
Evening satellite imagery continued to show the circulation around a large closed low spinning over the Ozarks. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: The closed low is now located over western AR this afternoon with surface convection spinning all around it. Some isolated severe storms have developed within our CWA due to a weak trough located over the LA coast. Overnight, there may be some isolated showers that continue working their way around the upper low while temperatures will fall into the mid 60s. For Thursday, with the closed low a little closer overhead and another disturbance set to move across the area, convection is again anticipated. The cold front associated with the closed low will also move a little more into our area as well and will help to keep much of the area in the low to mid 80s overall.
657 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The main concern in the short term is with precipitation chances this evening through the overnight as a cold front moves into the northern CWA. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with the frontal passage, the coolest temperatures will be across the NW Sandhills where highs will be in the low 70s, elsewhere highs will reach the mid 70s.
A few additional showers may later develop going more into the overnight period, with the upper low remaining well west of the area over west cntrl AR. A couple of spots across the TN Valley are close to/already at their forecasted lows, so early morning temps Thu were lowered a coupled of degrees into the lower/mid 60s. The aformentioned upper low will continue to track east over the ArkLaTex region on Thursday, transitioning into more of an open wave as the system begins to lift north and east.
This activity is occurring in conjunction with another lobe of vorticity rounding the nearly stationary upper low near the ArkLaTex per recent WV imagery and UA analysis. At any rate, ocnl periods of showers and storms can be expected through Thursday as the upper low lingers over the region, and a series of vort lobes continue to rotate around the system.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: The closed low is now located over western AR this afternoon with surface convection spinning all around it. Some isolated severe storms have developed within our CWA due to a weak trough located over the LA coast. Overnight, there may be some isolated showers that continue working their way around the upper low while temperatures will fall into the mid 60s. For Thursday, with the closed low a little closer overhead and another disturbance set to move across the area, convection is again anticipated. The cold front associated with the closed low will also move a little more into our area as well and will help to keep much of the area in the low to mid 80s overall.
Winds will remain out of the south at 5 to 10 knots until the winds shift to the northwest as a cold front moves through during the early evening on Thursday. Overnight, skies will grow more overcast as a cold front approaches from the west and patchy fog may develop as temperatures cool amid steady dewpoints.
1032 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 High pressure over the western North Atlantic will build west tonight and Thursday as the remnants of Bertha recede to the north through the Appalachians. Gentle to moderate, east to southeast breezes will develop across the Keys as the ridge axis reaches west across Florida.
/issued 328 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb low/trough across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas extending into east Texas tonight will continue to provide northwest flow aloft across southwest Texas but convection is progged to develop well north of the CWA this evening and move slowly southward before weakening late tonight.
650 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 00Z TAFS An upper level energy wave wrapping around a broad upper level low centered over western Arkansas this evening continues to produce a swath of showers and thunderstorms. More isolated thunderstorms will once again be possible Thursday afternoon as another perturbation wraps around the upper level low to the north. This activity is occurring in conjunction with another lobe of vorticity rounding the nearly stationary upper low near the ArkLaTex per recent WV imagery and UA analysis. At any rate, ocnl periods of showers and storms can be expected through Thursday as the upper low lingers over the region, and a series of vort lobes continue to rotate around the system.
633 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms, will remain possible this evening as a low pressure area slowly moves closer to the area.
649 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Upper low will continue to meander around the region but with a continued drift east. The low is expected to begin to open up later in the day Thursday and move east. In the meantime, showers and some storms will be possible across mainly eastern portions of the fa on the backside of the low, tonight into Thursday.
614 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 A large upper low remains centered southeast of the forecast area, leading to periodic cloud cover as pieces of energy rotate around it. Tonight, a cold front will push through the area.
For the last few days rain associated with this upper low has underperformed. Due to the proximity of the low, we will likely see at least a few showers linger through the night, but most of us will remain dry. GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cutoff upper level low just southwest of Fort Smith Arkansas. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 80s across most locations.
As these dissipate in the next hour or so, quiet conditions should prevail overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
1059 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Unsettled conditions expected through the end of the week with low pressure lifting into the area today followed by an upper trough crossing the area late in the week.
High pressure ridging across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend will keep winds generally around 10 knots or less, with daily sea breezes turning onshore near the coast.
The nearly vertically stacked closed low poised along the Oklahoma and Arkansas border is entraining some drier air around the southeast quadrant of the low at this time. Once the upper low center begins to move and settle into southeast Missouri Thursday afternoon, will see increasing lift generally along and east of the Mississippi river after midnight tonight and through the midday on Thursday. Some enhanced lift will likely occur Thursday afternoon and evening, as the upper low begins to shear out and lift northeast across the area.
839 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible through tonight as an upper level low spins overhead.
Scattered showers will continue overnight and persist through much of the day Thursday as an upper level low begins to slowly shift east.
535 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 19z surface analysis had cold front from northeast SD to KPHP to KDGW. Water vapour showed upper low south central Canada with trailing trough into western WY. Trough bringing post frontal synoptic lift over 100-500J/kg MLCAPE. Thursday, lingering showers will exit the CWA as upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
1200 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 06Z TAF issuance VFR with NE winds becoming gusty during the afternoon behind a cold front. Anomalous upper level setup over the south- central US with upper low currently settled over the Arklatex. Low will continue to slowly press eastward with building ridging over the western US over the next few days, eventually parking over the central US by the weekend. Surface cold front to the northeast will backdoor the region tonight, stalling across the western portion of the forecast area tomorrow morning. A weak disturbance will run southeast out of NM on the backside of the trough in place tomorrow afternoon.
/Issued 839 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/ Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible through tonight as an upper level low spins overhead.
The marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler as low clouds and fog develop each night and morning. High pressure aloft will continue over the West Coast through Thursday, before weakening and moving east Friday. In the High Desert, highs will be 100 to 104 degrees and highs will peak around 111 in the lower deserts. A trough moves into northern California this weekend, bringing cooler conditions and increasing onshore flow in Southern California.
Upper low will slowly slide eastward on Friday and open up in to a trough. The wet pattern will continue into Friday as the trough axis moves into the region.
137 AM MDT Thu May 28 2020 Deep upper trough continues to traverse the northern CONUS this morning. Additional showers may also develop over the high terrain of the Black Hills late this morning, before a strong subsidence inversion builds into the area this afternoon and limits instability. Cooler day expected most places today as a frontal zone stalls over the region with ample mid clouds limiting sun across the SW half.
Following Friday, expect cooler and drier conditions with highs in the low 70s. A cut off upper low to the southwest will start to lift out of its location and reintegrate with the main trough over the central U. Ahead of the trough, showers and thunderstorms will be possible with greatest chances towards southeast as temperatures have more time to increase in the afternoon. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s. A cooler air mass will settle into the region following Friday's disturbance.
332 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Today, a cold front will move into the state from Saskatchewan and Manitoba, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds.
Kansas will be sandwiched between a high pressure center located across the Northern Plains and low pressure off to the east. This high pressure will continue to sink southward across the Central Plains by Friday morning. Lastly, no precipitation is expected during the short term as the high prevails. Have ghost pops in for now, but doubt this will measure anything significant as the low levels are expected to remain fairly dry. All through the weekend and into the next business week, a 500-hPa ridge will build right on top of Central to Southern Plains.
1231 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The main concern in the short term is with precipitation chances this evening through the overnight as a cold front moves into the northern CWA. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with the frontal passage, the coolest temperatures will be across the NW Sandhills where highs will be in the low 70s, elsewhere highs will reach the mid 70s.
330 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Upper low still nearly stationary across OK and AR this morning. The low will begin to open up and lift out to the northeast resulting in a weak front entering into the region this afternoon into tonight.
High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s along the East Coast to the low 90s across the southwestern interior with heat indices ranging from the mid 90s to near 105.
Showers and thunderstorms will appear once again this afternoon and evening as the upper level low pressure system remains over western Arkansas. A mid-level disturbance moving south within the western periphery of the upper low in a northwest flow aloft is forecast to set the stage for storms to develop along and behind a stationary front across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Storms will continue to be active late this afternoon into the evening with storms coming together into a cluster of thunderstorms as a mid level trough axis pushes across the area. It seems like a line of storms is expected to form over the northeast part of Mexico and then expand along the International border as low pressure develops and move east and across CRP CWA overnight.
This southerly flow will keep pumping moisture in across the region but its coming from the warmer gulf instead of the Atlantic. This warmer gulf moisture and increased temperatures will help to increase instability across the region today as well.
Temperature forecast looks good with lows dropping to the lower and middle 60s by daybreak Thursday.
An upper trough will dip down into the Northern Plains after midnight, with a weak band of mid- lvl frontogenesis moving southeast through the Dakotas. Temperatures will cool slightly over today, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s. Friday: High pressure drains southward on Friday leading to another pleasant day across the region. As low level temperatures continue to cool across the western side of the trough moving through the Great Lakes, temperatures at the surface will also respond by lowering into the lower 70s.
343 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Unsettled conditions expected through the end of the week with low pressure lifting into the area today followed by an upper trough crossing the area late in the week.
With ridge over the area, expect VFR conditions and mainly light winds through Thursday.
306 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Low pressure system over Arkansas continues to funnel ample Gulf moisture into the region, causing light showers and cloudy skies to remain ongoing. By mid-morning we should see a relative lull in activity, as the aforementioned low pressure system and sfc cold front edges closer to KY. Otherwise, expect any lingering shower activity to gradually wane after sunset, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. Cold front, which will snap us out of the early summer pattern we've been in this week, will be on our doorstep Friday morning.
1032 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Upper low will continue to meander around the region but with a continued drift east. The low is expected to begin to open up later in the day Thursday and move east. In the meantime, showers and some storms will be possible across mainly eastern portions of the fa on the backside of the low, tonight into Thursday.
The pesky upper level low and its attendant trough will again dictate the weather across the region today, as it continues to slide a bit further east into the region. /19/ The upper trough will continue across the region at the start of the period with a cold front to our north.