Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 221 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ A pleasant summer afternoon is shaping up across the area today thanks to the expanding influence of the upper level high center to our west. The synoptic setup today is quite similar to yesterday, with the upper anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest flattening and expanding slowly eastward over West Texas. Friday will be very similar to today, with slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures as the upper anticyclone continues to slowly expand eastward. Otherwise, with ridging overhead, the atmosphere will remain dry and mostly sunny skies will prevail.
Lows are expected to fall into the low 70s by daybreak.
522 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the forecast area with an upper low approaching northwest. May have to wait for the enhanced lift associated with the approaching upper low to initiate sustained convection. Another upper ridge crossing the area may lead to mostly dry weather during the day on Friday, with some storms possibly initiating over the Black Hills in the afternoon.
Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the forecast area with an upper low approaching northwest. May have to wait for the enhanced lift associated with the approaching upper low to initiate sustained convection. Another upper ridge crossing the area may lead to mostly dry weather during the day on Friday, with some storms possibly initiating over the Black Hills in the afternoon.
Otherwise, north and northwest winds behind the departed cold front will usher in upper 50s dew points overnight which will provide for a cool and much drier start to Friday. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WINDS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to track west to east across central Indiana late today before ending from north to south this evening as the associated cold front slowly crosses the region. This afternoon the cold front was stretched from just north of Terre Haute, northeastward to just east of Kokomo. especially as the cold front crosses into the south central and southeastern counties late today.
This activity has developed along a prefrontal trough ahead of the main cold front. A 30 kt low-level jet is forecast to develop across the area overnight and could assist in maintaining or redeveloping convection along the prefrontal trough overnight.
1021 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Currently - A surface through mid level ridge extends westward across the Florida Peninsula, resulting in light to gentle east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The Keys reside on the eastern flank of an upper level ridge that extends across the Gulf of Mexico. This evening sounding indicated a bit more moisture through the lower levels, but it is still rather dry. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. Ridging across Florida will maintain light to gentle southeast breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
High pressure building into the waters from the Atlantic will hold through the upcoming weekend, with winds and seas generally remaining below headline criteria. As the ridge lifts slightly north this weekend, winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will become more southeasterly and easterly, allowing for increased thunderstorm activity shifting west into the coastal waters during the afternoon and early evening, causing locally higher winds and seas.
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a couple of short wave troughs upstream of the area.
Dangerous heat returns to the forecast area over the next several days due to a strong ridge of high pressure building overhead.
After slightly cooler and breezy conditions today, scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday, mainly during the late morning through afternoon period. Temperatures climb back into the 90s for the weekend under strong high pressure. Transitory upper-level ridging moves across the area from west to east the remainder of this afternoon and evening as an upper low over northeastern Montana exits east and brings the chance of severe weather this afternoon to those areas. Dry and hot conditions return over the weekend as we catch the northern extension of the anomalous upper level high and its associated heat wave developing over the Great Basin.
The region will remain situated between an upper level trough across the eastern third of the country and a weakening upper level ridge across the central Gulf.
High pressure dominating over the area both at the surface and aloft has resulted in a pretty nice July day. Highs are only making it to the low to mid 80s with it feeling like the mid to upper 80s. Tomorrow is a different story as a warm front pushes north through the day. Dew points will increase as well, reaching the low to mid 70s.
Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the forecast area with an upper low approaching northwest. May have to wait for the enhanced lift associated with the approaching upper low to initiate sustained convection. Another upper ridge crossing the area may lead to mostly dry weather during the day on Friday, with some storms possibly initiating over the Black Hills in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than today.
There does seem to be decent agreement among individual members for the highest QPF footprint to come right up to our southwest doorstep, and WPC's marginal excessive rain outlook looks well-placed.
1155 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Aviation Section Updated After slightly cooler and breezy conditions today, scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday, mainly during the late morning through afternoon period. Temperatures climb back into the 90s for the weekend under strong high pressure. /ISSUED 615 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ Transitory upper-level ridging moves across the area from west to east the remainder of this afternoon and evening as an upper low over northeastern Montana exits east and brings the chance of severe weather this afternoon to those areas. Dry and hot conditions return over the weekend as we catch the northern extension of the anomalous upper level high and its associated heat wave developing over the Great Basin.
-Kredensor After slightly cooler and breezy conditions today, scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday, mainly during the late morning through afternoon period. Temperatures climb back into the 90s for the weekend under strong high pressure. /ISSUED 615 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ Transitory upper-level ridging moves across the area from west to east the remainder of this afternoon and evening as an upper low over northeastern Montana exits east and brings the chance of severe weather this afternoon to those areas. Dry and hot conditions return over the weekend as we catch the northern extension of the anomalous upper level high and its associated heat wave developing over the Great Basin.
/issued 221 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ A pleasant summer afternoon is shaping up across the area today thanks to the expanding influence of the upper level high center to our west. The synoptic setup today is quite similar to yesterday, with the upper anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest flattening and expanding slowly eastward over West Texas. Friday will be very similar to today, with slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures as the upper anticyclone continues to slowly expand eastward. Otherwise, with ridging overhead, the atmosphere will remain dry and mostly sunny skies will prevail. /DWK The forecast for the early weekend looks largely on-track, as upper level high pressure provides a warm and dry Saturday.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Pretty quiet pattern next few days as we remain under the eastern flank of our ridge centered over the Southwest US. Temps will remain near to slightly below average for both the highs and lows next few days with 90s the predominant areal extent of high temps and upper 60s to low 70s for lows outside the cool pockets in northern Lea and the Marfa Plateau. Upper low over the south-central side of the state will slowly navigate west with mid-level moisture flux tickling the Lower Trans-Pecos next succession of afternoons, so SChc and Chc PoPs will remain along the eastern fringes of Pecos County down through Terrell.
Increasing south to southwest low level flow today will advect much warmer air across central and eastern Kansas. The focus for late day and overnight convection will reside along the surface front in southern Nebraska, which will begin to move southward as a cold front. The main challenge on Saturday is the position of the cold front near time of peak heating where the atmosphere is expected to become very unstable with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 j/kg. As such, seasonally strong bulk shear greater than 40 kts ahead of the vigorous upper trof will support organized storms/rotating updrafts, capable of large hail and damaging down-burst winds.
230 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A weak trough crossing the mountains and moving over North Carolina this afternoon will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to many locations. A mid-level trough is expected to bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.
Evening update: A closed low moving into Central WA this evening contributed to the development of showers and thunderstorms over the North Cascades, some of which produced heavy rain with a rock slide and water over the road on Highway 20 west of Mazama, and a separate storm that prompted a Flash Flood Warning up the Twisp River drainage west of Twisp. As the low continues to track to the east overnight there are two areas to monitor. The 00z NAM shows one area of elevated convection in the NE quadrant of the low, but with limited instability with storms over the Waterville Plateau fizzling this evening with the best chances for new convection up near the Canadian border although can not completely rule out new development over much of NE WA into the N Idaho Panhandle.
Of course, the building ridge will bring hot, dry weather for the weekend. As a closed high forms over the desert southwest, the ridge axis will set up over western Montana by Saturday morning. Temperatures bounce back to the mid to upper 90s for many Montana valleys, and triple digits for the lower elevation valleys in north-central Idaho. The building ridge will allow for more smoke to enter the region this weekend, creating somewhat of a forecast challenge for high temperatures.
Middle and lower tropospheric ridging will prevail through the period.
As the low pressure system lifts NE into Ontario this evening, cyclonic flow will remain over the region pulling the region of low stratus across northern lower MI down into SE MI. In addition, a trailing trough axis will remain draped east to west across southern MI which may also result in some light precip into the overnight hours. The longwave trough axis will drop southward through southern MI early Friday leading to a period of drier and pleasant weather. In addition, the cold pool within the trough will pass right over head with 500/850mb temps dropping to -13/9C respectively.
Upper low will take similar track but weaken a tad and become more an open wave as it moves into South Dakota Saturday.
1040 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a couple of short wave troughs upstream of the area.
The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the remainder of the CWA Saturday bringing in cooler temperatures to the area.
Upper level troughing will remain over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, the western extension of the Bermuda ridge will extend across the gulf coast states. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mod 70s with highs Friday in the upper 80s. Subtropical ridging establishes itself as the primary driver of our sensible weather heading into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s/low 90s, while we see lows in the low-mid 70s. Heat indices may climb into the low 100s in some locations.
A cold front will move into the area later today into this evening before stalling out nearby for Saturday.
Low temperatures still relatively mild tonight in the low 70s with a lingering low level jet and clouds hanging on for much of the night. Temperatures should be near normal with highs in the lower 90s with lows in the 70s. The overall upper level pattern will be quite amplified Sun/Mon with a strong persistent upper ridge over the western CONUS with a deep upper trough over the upper Midwest and Mid MS Valley region and building upper ridge over the western Atlantic.
155 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Moisture will return from the west through Friday along a weak cold front.
1255 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Cooler and dry for Friday with highs in the 70s. An upper-level trough axis will continue to push east of our area for the remainder of the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will continue to track east as well.
A ~596 dam mid-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will expand to the east, which should limit convective coverage. Otherwise, a strengthening surface cyclone in the lee of the Rockies will increase the pressure gradient and attendant surface winds.
The upper level trough to the northwest over the Ohio Valley will direct scattered showers and thunderstorms southeastward overnight from western KY and middle Tennessee into the forecast area later tonight. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 71 89 72 86 / 70 30 40 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 86 70 87 / 50 20 50 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 50 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 84 66 86 / 50 20 60 30 60.
This should keep temperatures a bit on the cooler side with highs in the 70s over much of northwest IA, southwest MN and far eastern SD. Still some warmer readings likely in central SD down the Missouri River with highs closer to 85. With clouds and easterly flow lows will be cool but still likely remain in the lower 60s. Saturday will see the threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms gradually diminish from north to south as upper level low pressure wraps up to the south. This is a fairly anomalous set up going into the weekend as wrapped up slow moving low pressures are not overly common for this time of year.
Upstream across the SW conus, upper level high pressure and very warm/hot air resided. Relative high pressure will also be common through tonight, and winds will be pretty light with afternoon lake breezes being common.
Today Through Saturday Night Upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the northeast. The upper trough will move south Saturday. By Saturday night, the upper ridge will move only slightly west and an upper low will move into northern Missouri. The weak cold front has stalled near the Missouri border and will move north today. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop again Saturday, and chances will increase Saturday night as the next cold front approaches from the north. Near normal temperaturs are expected in the short term with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
The upper level high pressure sitting over the Great Basin has northeasterly flow aloft over the Panhandles today. The high is retrograding and should ease far enough west to put the area in northwest flow aloft by Friday night. The cold front still looks on track for entering the Panhandles Saturday morning.
A final day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur today as deep tropical moisture interacts with low pressure at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere that will gradually move west in tandem.
Upper wave will dive southeast out of the central Plains on Saturday with cold front pushing to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border by late afternoon.
231 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021 08z surface analysis had low pressure over western NE with trough into the western Dakota. A cold front intersected the front from western ND into western WY. Earlier convection mostly east/south of the CWA, but a few echoes remain per leftover cape/forcing ahead of upper low spinning over north central ND. Saturday, upper low moves southeast into the Midwest.
An upper trough will linger over the eastern conus allowing tropical moisture to remain over the area. Temperatures should be near normal with highs in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows overnight mainly in the low 70s.
At the surface, low pressure was located over northeast Colorado with a warm front extending east/northeastward into northeast Nebraska. Elevated thunderstorms had developed on the nose of a slightly veered 40kt low-level jet overnight and continued to slide southeast along the nose of this low-level jet. Lingering showers and any residual cloud cover will complicate the positioning of the warm frontal position through the day. In addition, surface dewpoints approaching the low 70s across the warm sector should push heat indices into the low 100s. Lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible into Saturday as upper troughing moves overhead in northwesterly flow with cooler temperatures and dewpoints.
323 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021 An upper trough is progged to move across Montana today and provide lift for more showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler today with northeast winds, with highs held to the 80s most places. Soundings support a snap in the low level wind field in Billings late this afternoon (indicative of a strong outflow boundary moving through).
Today through Saturday Night: Isolated showers earlier tonight are coming to an end as a low pressure disturbance is pushing to our east. As high pressure builds later today and persists into Saturday, we will see daytime temps rise yet again.
The heat wave continues as high pressure lingers over the region. Ridge reasserts itself over the whole CWA today. While slightly cooler today across much of the CWA, it will still be hot with highs in the 90s to low 100s. Elevated moisture trapped under the ridge will lead to some cu buildups each day.
These storms are occurring near an 850 mb theta-e ridge and getting just enough support to warrant an SPS or two so far this morning. Although technically we get closer to criteria for heat advisory in north central Kansas where we kept the heat advisory, the index is only a couple of degrees cooler just across the border into Nebraska with less wind, so it will still feel pretty hot with a good chunk of south central NE having near 100 heat index this afternoon/early evening. More storm activity is forecast for Saturday and as mid-level trough moves through, I would not be surprised to see some small hail on Saturday due to the cool air aloft.
753 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Deep layer ridging resides across FL and most of the Gulf of Mexico through this evening with moisture rich air. The heat indices reach 95 to 105 with the higher values inland. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the state with a relaxed gradient.
433 AM PDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Dangerous heat returns to the forecast area over the next several days due to a strong ridge of high pressure building overhead.
In the cyclonic flow aloft several short waves are forecast to drop through behind the low center. Another concern, though not a big one at this point, is the chance of weak funnels with the upper low overhead today. By Saturday morning the trough axis shifts into southern North Dakota and with it the showers and any leftover storms. Clearing from the north on Saturday as H5 ridging flops over into southern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
1059 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A cold front will move into the area later today into this evening before stalling out nearby for Saturday.
526 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021 08z surface analysis had low pressure over western NE with trough into the western Dakota. A cold front intersected the front from western ND into western WY. Earlier convection mostly east/south of the CWA, but a few echoes remain per leftover cape/forcing ahead of upper low spinning over north central ND. Saturday, upper low moves southeast into the Midwest.
upper-level ridging has set up shop aloft overnight, and this is expected to amplify for the next few days as a large anticyclone intensifies over the desert southwest. Meanwhile, this strong ridging aloft will drop the inversion near the surface overnight, possibly breaching the ridges of Lake and southeastern Mendocino counties.
The focus for today initially shifts to this afternoon, where strong heating aligned with an H85 thermal axis and dewpoints mainly in the lower 70s will result in temperatures in the lower 90s - with heat indicies near 100-102 degrees across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. Several foci for development will be possible, from a warm frontal boundary oriented northwest-southeast across the eastern half of the area and any differential/outflow boundaries from this morning's convection. An active pattern may be in store for the week ahead as an upper low drifts over the area, continuing rain chances, with additional chances for thunderstorms later in the week as the pattern becomes more progressive with weak waves embedded in the flow.
508 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Mean sea level pressure has risen about 3 millibars during the last 24 hours in the Florida Keys, evidence of the Atlantic high pressure ridge building back westward across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of recurving tropical cyclone Elsa. Light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails in the lower troposphere across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters early this morning.
0", so with ample moisture in place, anticipate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms again today as the low pressure continues a gradual westward movement. A mid-level ridge will begin to move into South TX from the west during the day Saturday. 0", mid-level ridging should limit precipitation coverage with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
440 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Although high pressure ridging will be building in across the region from the west, a low pressure system along the Texas coast will be sending deep moisture into southern Mississippi, thus chances for showers and storms will continue Friday across the area, with the best chances in the south. Highs Friday will range from the middle 80s south where better coverage of clouds and precip will exist, to the lower 90s in the north. Lows Friday night will generally be in the lower 70s.
/27/ Although high pressure ridging will be building in across the region from the west, a low pressure system along the Texas coast will be sending deep moisture into southern Mississippi, thus chances for showers and storms will continue Friday across the area, with the best chances in the south. Highs Friday will range from the middle 80s south where better coverage of clouds and precip will exist, to the lower 90s in the north. Lows Friday night will generally be in the lower 70s.
Due to the speed of the storms propagating to the SW the flash flood threat is on the low side at this time.
738 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa will track towards eastern Long Island this morning A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to arrive tonight. An upper trough will still be across the area, so the daytime heating and some upper energy may create more scattered showers and tstms for the afternoon and evening. Lows will drop into the low/mid 60s across the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley. The departing Elsa leaves a building H5/H7 ridge behind it as it moves away from the area.
645 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little cooler today, especially across our southeast counties, where mostly cloudy skies are expected. Weak low pressure will track northeast along the Rio Grande this morning, then weaken as it crosses into the higher terrain of Mexico later this afternoon. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s over southeast counties, to the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley.