Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will result in record heat today and Monday. Water vapor imagery and 19/12Z upper-air plots show the ridge currently centered near northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Meanwhile, an inverted trough extends from northeast Mexico into southern Texas, with a disturbance also moving through the Texas panhandle from northeast to southwest. The northeast flow on the eastern flank of the ridge brought the smoke across eastern Pinal and eastern Pima counties early this morning. Continue to expect record or near record high temps this afternoon and the 15Z (8 AM MST) surface observations indicate that temperatures range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s, with the Tucson Intl Airport reporting a temp of 89 degrees after a morning low of 75 degrees.
636 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Upper level high pressure remains over the southern Rockies with a ridge axis extending into the Ohio Valley. high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic States continues to dominate the weather pattern. Highs today will once again range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values generally in the low to mid 90s. The upper level ridge will continue to flatten as an upper level trough. As the trough pushes into eastern Canada. the upper level ridge will retrograde and amplify into the Rockies.
1151 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Winds become southerly to southwesterly around the back side of a departing high pressure center today, bringing a return of hot and humid conditions to the region. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Warmer H85 temps across the far west into the Rio Grande Plains may halt much in the way of convection farther west. Latest Tropical Outlook now has the previously advertised area of low pressure in the southern gulf to have a 70 percent of Tropical Cyclone development in the next 48 hours. As for temperatures, a relatively cooler trend is in store, although temperatures will remain in the 90s for the most part area-wide. Upper Ridge will begin to build back south across the area during the period.
A strong upper level ridge over SE CO is elongated from NE to SW and this has allowed a brief weakness in the ridge over SE TX. A weak inverted 500 mb trough is undercutting the ridge and will slide westward into S TX later today.
Coastal areas will see warmer temperatures too, but the coast is expected to remain relatively mild as light onshore flow predominates during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise the low levels are too dry for fog formation. The Fort Ord profiler reveals that the airmass over our region has warmed by as much as 9 degrees C over the past 24 hours as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds west towards California. The warming airmass and light offshore flow will result in much warmer weather today. Most areas are forecast to be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
1136 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Warm and dry conditions will persist today as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather across the region. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Monday afternoon into Monday night bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
1048 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The broad area of high pressure that has been causing the heat wave across the desert southwest will become elongated today with the center of said high generally over the southern half of Colorado. Midlevel warming continues and will be reflected at the surface today with temperatures remaining well above normal and a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A few changes Monday with the first being the high temperatures that will now be reaching near record territory. Models showing a rather meager fetch of moisture rotating around the high pressure that may be just enough to get some convection going.
The next chance for rain can be expected with a Monday night cold front. Dry high pressure will further strengthen today with insolation, neutral advection, and the rising high pressure dome between Canadian and Mid Atlantic Coastal troughing driving temperatures about 7 to 10 degrees above the averages. The Upper Ohio Region is projected to remain sandwiched between those low pressure troughs into Monday. The forecast of Upper Ohio Ridge erosion remains on track although system timing is quickening from previous runs with cold front encroachment and passage now slated for Monday night.
Forecast area will be between a building upper level ridge of high pressure to the east and a small closed low pressure off the Washington coast leaving us under a southwest flow. Temperatures will be warmer today and overnight by 5 to 15 degrees due to the building ridge along with light winds.
A ridge of high pressure north of the waters will gradually sink south through the start of the work week. A tight pressure gradient along the southern edge of the ridge will keep east winds over the northeastern Gulf at around exercise caution levels today, briefly increasing to borderline advisory levels this evening.
924 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure at the surface will bring dry weather and summer like temperatures to the region today and tomorrow.
1044 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Dry high pressure will build into the region through Monday. Today, Dry High pressure remains centered off to the north of the area, with ridging extending down into the CWA. This will keep winds out of the northeast, helping to keep afternoon temperatures cooler than normal. Tonight, With high pressure still over the area, skies become clear and winds light and variable/calm. Dry high pressure continues across the region. Upper ridge will remain to our west, with upper trough over the east coast, maintaining a generally dry NW flow aloft pattern.
This has help to develop strong local Northeast Flow off the coastal waters and across NE FL/SE GA and cooler than normal temps for mid June. 5 ft above normal along the coast and a few locations reached into "Action/Elevated" Stages along the coast about a half a foot below minor flood stages on the higher evening tidal cycle last night. With the approach of the full moon peak high tides with tonight's high tide cycle and ESTOFS Surge Model still supporting 1-2 ft tidal departures tonight, am leaning towards issuing Coastal Flood Advisory for possible minor flooding during the high tide cycle along the coast that will push into inland waterways during the overnight hours.
Through the morning, a few showers are possible north of I-20, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs and we remain under a weakness in the ridge aloft.
There is still a weak upper level low just offshore and that will bring a chance of showers back into the area by Monday evening.
Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered north of AR, while an east flow into the region. Head index values will be in the lower to mid 90s. Monday will see the upper high pressure ridge move a bit more west, potentially bringing some upper short wave energy into the region.
High pressure continues to build in from the E at the sfc and from the west aloft, keeping conditions dry today. /Issued 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ Alabama will remain on the eastern side of a large upper level ridge through much of the upcoming forecast period, which will keep conditions relatively dry and warm to hot.
High pressure continues to build into the region today with plenty of sunshine. For tonight with high pressure and clear skies anticipated, temperatures will be able to cool down into the 30s and 40s. The warming trend continues on Monday as highs will generally be 10 degrees warmer than they were on Sunday.
/Today/ Dry air from Eastern CONUS high pressure will prevail over Iowa for at least one more day today. A short wave moving across southern Canada this morning has begun to suppress the upper ridge enough to allow a sfc boundary to begin to transition southeast and reach Southeast South Dakota by late this afternoon and the sfc flow to become south/southwest over Iowa today.
1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Cold front extending across central sd this morning moving east. Otherwise, still expect tsra development this afternoon along the cold front as it moves into northeast sd/west central mn. A cold front currently in western North Dakota will track into western counties by late morning, with moisture pooling ahead of the front to assist in increasing low level humidity and potentially shifting winds to a more southwesterly component which will enhance mixing.
810 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressures in place over NorCal will result in a warming trend with high temperatures nearing 100 degrees by middle of the week.
After today, will show a mainly dry and hot forecast for several days as upper ridge builds east into the Central and Southern Plains. Unlike yesterday's model runs, which kept a dominate ridge, todays model runs weaken or retrgrade the ridge slightly by late week.
A cold front currently in western North Dakota will track into western counties by late morning, with moisture pooling ahead of the front to assist in increasing low level humidity and potentially shifting winds to a more southwesterly component which will enhance mixing.
Some high clouds are streaming in from the north around the eastern edge of the large ridge that is anchored in NM/CO. Winds briefly pick up this morning as high pressure builds towards the Carolina coast leaving a slight pressure gradient over the region.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Cold front and low pressure system has moved into North Dakota overnight. an upper level trough will move across Southern Saskatchewan today. Canadian high pressure moves into Montana tonight which will diminish the winds. An upper ridge moves through Montana Monday and Monday Night with dry weather continuing.
1117 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 As the ridge to our west retrogrades and intensifies a trough will eventually develop over the eastern United States. Ahead of the developing trough the next two days will be warmer than normal.
Alabama will remain on the eastern side of a large upper level ridge through much of the upcoming forecast period, which will keep conditions relatively dry and warm to hot.
Today a surface cold front will drop south into Nebraska as an upper level trough quickly moves east across the northern Plains. By 00z Monday this upper high will extend from the Four Corners Region to the Central Plains. Based on this along with an southeasterly flow in the 0-1km level and the highs yesterday will favor the cooler guidance for highs today.
Isolated showers are already developing in far southern IL as southerly return flow on the west side of the high creates increasing isentropic lift. Even warmer temperatures expected tomorrow as warm air moves into the region from the ridging in the west. Temperatures reaching into the lower 90s, with enough moisture/humidity in the air to spike the heat indices into the upper 90s/close to 100F.
While the bulk of the upper level energy will be well north of the local area, the system will drag its associated cold front across the region tonight, eventually laying it up west to east across IA/IL as it departs into southeast Canada. Should see 90 or warmer for many locations. Thankfully, dewpoints (for the most part) are expected to hold in the low to mid 60s, helping keep heat indices relatively in check. Cooler (compared to the past few days), more seasonable/less humid air still on track for much of the new week post the cold front sinks south tonight. Only real potential for any flight restrictions would be convective chances late tonight as cold front approaches.
1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Monday. Thus, expect temps to be similar to a few degrees warmer than yesterday. More of the same is expected tonight, though the center of the high is forecast to shift a bit south and westward. Thus, given this and airmass modification expect overnight lows will generally be a few degrees warmer than this mornings values. Expect lows to range from the lower 50s in the usual rural cold spots to near 60 in the urban areas.
Only minor changes were made with this update, namely to eliminate the rest of the low-end shower/storm chances over north central ND early this morning. The surface cold front extends from near Minot to Dickinson and Hettinger at 11 UTC and will continue shifting to the southeast this morning. Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North Dakota with warm front looping through north central into northeast North Dakota. Cold front will swoop through the area bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations.
931 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 An Upper level ridge will provide dry weather and warm temperatures today into Monday.
704 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Dominating ridge across the plains with troughs on either side, over the Pacific NW and off the New England/mid Atlantic coast. First is afternoon temperatures and possible heat advisory, with the second being afternoon/tonight convection along the cold front. Mos guidance has coming in a few degrees cooler than previous forecast for afternoon temps. And expect some compressional heating ahead of the approaching cold front, which models tend to struggle with. Afternoon cold front will push into the northwest CWA. Monday will be the coolest day of the week in the wake of Sunday night's cold front. Have also increased or continued pops Monday into Monday night with plenty of mid level instability to the north of the stalled cold front in Kansas.
Yesterday's cold front has already washed out with calm on the sfc running E/SE on our VAD up to 6 or 7kft before picking up out of the NE 20-30KT for climb. A big Midwest upper ridge is generating these winds and will soon supress p.
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Only minor changes were made with this update, namely to eliminate the rest of the low-end shower/storm chances over north central ND early this morning. The surface cold front extends from near Minot to Dickinson and Hettinger at 11 UTC and will continue shifting to the southeast this morning. Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North Dakota with warm front looping through north central into northeast North Dakota. Cold front will swoop through the area bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations.
/issued 437 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and warm conditions will prevail across West Central Texas today as a weak ridge builds into the area from the west.
Temperatures across the Midsouth are currently in the low to middle 60s with dew points only a degree or two cooler on average. Temperatures will rebound into the low 80s across most of the region. A Ridge will build over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will trend warmer. Temperatures will increase slightly warmer than the weekend.
There is good agreement among various NWP models concerning the mid to upper level subtropical ridge quickly building back to the west and strengthening over the region through the early part of the week.
1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather today before a weak disturbance returns shower chances for later Sunday and Sunday night. Much warmer temperatures are expected to start the week. Models continue to trend further north with this feature, so the highest chance POPs were nudged mainly north of PIT.
902 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Enhanced onshore flow will continue Today, as high pressure builds to the North. Instability will increase inland this afternoon, aided by surface heating and an approaching upper trough, which could lead to a few thunderstorms. Building high pressure to the North will continue enhanced onshore flow.
A stubborn band of clouds, associated with slow-moving upper level low pressure area, remained stretched across the northwestern two- thirds of our forecast area early this morning. Believe as upper low pressure area moves eastward across our area today, there will be at least a small chance for showers invof of the upper low center (which should track from western TN into northern Alabama.
734 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Short range models in good agreement with upper level short wave currently moving across the lower MS Valley drifting east and across the forecast area today. This upper disturbance will overrun a cool surface wedge of high pressure nosing in from the northeast and bring mostly cloudy conditions to the forecast area today. The clouds and cool easterly wind flow will warrant leaning toward the cooler side of guidance for highs today. mainly in the lower to mid 70s behind the wedge front.
With a fairly broad sfc trof situated from the Dakotas to along the TX Panhandle Neighborhood stiff sly winds will continue to pump warm air N/NE across KS. Regardless, a se-moving cold front is still scheduled to arrive Central KS Mon Evening & SC & SE KS early Tue Morning. Wed-Fri: Cooler weather continues as large high pressure moves very slowly E into the Nrn Plains. There continues to be significant disagreement between the GFS & ECMWF (though not as much as the previous runs) with the ECMWF still more progressive, taking a deep upper-deck longwave trof to the Lwr MS Valley late Thu Night while the GFS positions it over KS & OK.
The low clouds will scatter by late morning, and the rest of the day will be sunny and unseasonably warm.
Warmer and windier conditions return to the region on Sunday in advance of another passing frontal boundary.
948 AM PDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Upper-level troughing across the region will create a deep marine layer west of the mountains, gusty west to southwest winds across the mountains and deserts, high temperatures 5 to 15 deg F below normal, and periods of light rain or drizzle early Sun and Mon mornings. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 9 am PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper- level trough along the PAC NW, and another trough following not far behind. The aforementioned trough is currently generating moderate to heavy precip over portions of the PAC NW. Available moisture will decrease as the trough digs south across CA which will limit precipitation chances over SW CA this weekend.
At the SFC, high pressure is forecast to remain centered off to our east, maintaining a light/modest east to southeast flow and a steady influx of MSTR in the lowest few thousand FT. By midweek, global models depict a digging upper trof over the Central/Eastern CONUS, forcing a CDFNT through the area in the THU/FRI time period depending on the model.
701 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure will move east tonight with another cold front approaching the area by late Sunday. A bit warmer today. Afternoon high temps are forecast to reach into the low and mid 50s which is right around normal for mid October.
1124 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Weak upper level trough will continue moving northwest of the area today spreading clouds across the area.
Water vapor showing jetstream will push this low toward the Oregon and Washington coast during the day. Winds aloft will be increasing today as well as surface gradients with the low moving along the coast. As the low moves off to the north tonight and the front moves through the region expect rain to taper off to showers. Rain will increase Sun night as the low moves inland.
934 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure will move east tonight with another cold front approaching the area by late Sunday. A bit warmer today. Afternoon high temps are forecast to reach into the low and mid 50s which is right around normal for mid October.
/ISSUED / Mid/upper level high pressure building across the area over the weekend will help to suppress any significant shower or thunderstorm development.
The southerly winds will start a warming trend today as highs top out in the middle 70s to the lower 80s this afternoon. Warmer conditions will occur tonight as lows generally only cool into the middle 60s to around 70 tonight into early Sunday morning.
It should be relatively quiet tonight with lows in the lower to mid 40s. The models have been relatively consistent in bringing an H5 trough across the Northern Plains on Sunday, but they have differed in regards to how much moisture this system will have with it. There will also be a trend towards cooler temperatures as a strong upper trough moves through the central United States towards mid week.
A 1034 MB high pressure system centered near New England stretches southwest down the Eastern Seaboard into the southeastern United States. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Saltwater inundation will persist in the low-lying areas and lots across the Upper Keys, especially neighborhoods along the bayside, northern coastline.
Moisutre return does not look to be making to KDRT this morning as models depicted and it remains VFR SKC with the lower clouds remaining east. A mid-level ridge axis will be will positioned over TX to maintain above normal temperatures this weekend. Surface to 5000 ft winds should be mostly unidirectional out of the SSE later this morning, so a mix-out of the low cigs should be progressive between 14z and 16z.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue today. There is good agreement among various NWP models concerning the mid to upper level subtropical ridge quickly building back to the west and strengthening over the region through the early part of the week.
Pacific Northwest continue to be under the influence of an upper level trough with a series of systems moving through it. For the forecast area this system will lift as warm front northward over the region bringing rain and some increased southerly winds. this will be followed by a cold frontal passage tonight which will decrease the precipitation for some areas and decrease the winds behind the front. Water vapor showing jetstream will push this low toward the Oregon and Washington coast during the day. Winds aloft will be increasing today as well as surface gradients with the low moving along the coast. As the low moves off to the north tonight and the front moves through the region expect rain to taper off to showers. Rain will increase Sun night as the low moves inland.
/ISSUED / 340 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Mid/upper level high pressure building across the area over the weekend will help to suppress any significant shower or thunderstorm development.
It is a fine line between warm advection vs cloud cover blocking the insolation. Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 58 80 57 / 0 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 81 58 / 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 53 76 53 / 10 10 0 0.
Concur with the GFS deterministic which builds the upper ridge over the CWA/MSA during the period.
/issued 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/ Anticyclonic upper flow will remain intact through tonight as a tall dome of high pressure relocates eastward across the Permian Basin. This anemic pattern is being countered with some drama in the low levels across our western and northern zones where an encore performance of stratus and some fog was noted.
/Issued 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/ A taste of summer is in store for the Panhandles Today as high temperatures increase into the lower to mid 90s. The movement of this low will keep the surface pressure gradient slightly more relaxed across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles while the gradient is stronger for the southern Texas Panhandle. Latest upper level analysis places high pressure with broad anti- cyclonic flow centered over the Baja Peninsula with weak zonal flow over the southern Rockies and out over the Panhandles.
1232 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure will move east tonight with another cold front approaching the area by late Sunday. A bit warmer today. Afternoon high temps are forecast to reach into the low and mid 50s which is right around normal for mid October.
Later as the cold front moves through, the winds will switch to westerly. Gusty winds will develop behind the cold front tonight at all TAF locations.