Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES INLAND FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOWS TNGT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
1028 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 817 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES OF E TN AND SW VA TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH.
405 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
114 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
1145 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD/NE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WARMER/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS FAIRLY COOL GROUND HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN FORECAST SUNDAY. AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR BRIEF FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THOUGH EXPECT ANY WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO BE QUICK WITH MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WAA RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
1138 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH TO THE EAST ANALYZED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ONE TO THE WEST. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. FORECAST FOLLOWS THE COOLER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. TOMORROW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
Low level forcing enhances along and ahead of a cold front moving southeast. Moisture transport will focus across eastern Kansas ahead of the approaching upper wave and surface cold front. High pressure builds in on Monday, then slides off to the east Monday night with return flow setting up across eastern Kansas.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
252 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 FREEZING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY.
109 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY.
325 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS WARM READINGS. WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
357 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40 OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
408 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WAA and a rapid onset of moistening in the lower levels will allow latent heat processes to raise snow levels most areas.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORCED EWD BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EWD AND IS CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED SLY SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROF EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AND TRAILS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OUR REGION YET AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE NUDGED EWD AND JUST E OF OUR REGION AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD THU.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U. AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE S OF TX IS RESULTING IN A SW FLOW ALOFT THAT IS USHERING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
1232 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MAV NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN MET FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT MONDAY.
101 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRACKING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
1236 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
Highs this afternoon should be quite a bit warmer than yesterday, in the lower and middle 50s, as we get into return flow behind high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Much of tonight will be dry, but after midnight isentropic lift will rapidly increase as a low level jet develops from the Ozarks through the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes ahead of an approaching cold front. Low temperatures will be in the 40s, slightly cooler in the eastern valleys. Showers will be widespread on Monday as the cold front approaches.
THE MODELS RECEDE THE RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z. ONE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE ONSET OF LOW CEILINGS IN CHECK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND METRO AREAS WITH MID 60S IN THE WESTERN SUBURBS. INLAND AND GULF COAST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S WITH MID-UPPER 50S FOR GLADES AND HENDRY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN EVEN BY TONIGHT. HIPRES RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL MOVE OFF MID-ATLC COAST SUNDAY.
230 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
306 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 Unseasonable warmth will be even moreso today as the low level thermal ridge amplifies underneath dry w-sw flow aloft. Christmas day will probably be the last warm day, thereafter an upper low develops within the initial southern stream of split flow. As typical there's still alot of uncertainty in the solution with 00Z GFS developing a cutoff low in nrn Mexico and ECMWF lifting the low out quickly Sat.
WITH HURON POSSIBLE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS REALLY ONLY A FRONT IN NAME. MOISTURE ON MODELS STILL DOES NOT SEEM TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT FLURRIES EITHER. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
246 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD THE SEASONAL NORM THIS AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WARMER WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES EAST. QUITE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
343 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight.
347 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN TONIGHT. DRIFTING SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
612 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN TX. A LARGE BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED SHRA OVER WEST CENTRAL MS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW.
434 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY.
404 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
157 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THURSDAY.
407 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER.
103 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST.
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS PROMOTED ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
302 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LITTLE COOLER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEN INTO THE LOW PERHAPS MID 90S ON THURSDAY.
258 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER DEVELOPING TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN. WESTERN UPPER LOW WAS INDUCING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AT 850MB WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD. BELIEVE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA. THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE. FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS. JUST MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE CONTINUES TO ERODE. BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING FOR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO BRUSH CUSTER COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
A BROAD RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEAR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT.
COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT.
252 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 Fairly quiet weather will continue through the rest of this week and the long holiday weekend, with slightly above normal temperatures prevailing beneath a persistent upper level ridge.
146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DISTINCT TROF/WAVE AT UPPER LEVELS OVER MS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE OF OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT, SO AM HESITANT TO ADD FOG IN JUST YET DESPITE THE HIGH AMOUNT OF BL RH EXPECTED.
250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 THE WEATHER OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER AIR RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE MEAN UPPER AIR RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN BENEATH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STIFFEN.
SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ Fairly quiet weather will continue through the rest of this week and the long holiday weekend, with slightly above normal temperatures prevailing beneath a persistent upper level ridge.
337 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS TWO WEAK TROFS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH WEAK LOWS IN THE PLAINS.
117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE ST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
334 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIP. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF OVER TEXAS.
257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit precipitation chances. Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the forecast at this point. The upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the Intermountain West.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
314 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015 A cold front is moving into the area tonight and will usher in another period of cooler weather and rain showers for central Idaho and western Montana.
218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 Upper level disturbance in the lower Mississippi River Valley was causing some isolated showers to our southwest this afternoon.
339 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER ONT/MAN. PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN US. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. WARMER THU WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 100-104 RANGE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST ND.
220 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015 CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.
FORECAST LOWS USE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND COOLER MOS.
SOME ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS FROM ANY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER.
339 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR VALDOSTA GA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS SE GA TONIGHT REACHING THE GA COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW WILL SHIFT SE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE MID- UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER S FL.
226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE.
126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST.
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING.
244 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA. DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. KETCHAM THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT.
614 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST.
There is an upper trough over the Northern Plains which is helping to suppress the upper ridge over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across mainly the higher terrain and surrounding plains. Good CAPE values will be across the area and an area of enhanced omega will be over the higher terrain, so some of the storms that develop this afternoon and evening could be strong. As the upper trough over the Northern Plains moves eastward, it will send a cold front southward towards the CWA on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the higher terrain, and storm chances will increase across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin as the front approaches. Temperatures on Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today.
422 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANGE COMES EARLY SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA. CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE OF TODAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF OKLAHOMA.
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE CUT OFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. INLAND VALUES MAX OUT AT 30 PERCENT AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS LOWER TREND. WITH THE LOW PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED. TROUGHING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SW/W FLOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVER ECFL. 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST -6C/-7C TUE/WED BUT THEN A LITTLE COOLER - 7C/-8C INTO THU/FRI PROVIDING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
224 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SHALLOW PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. CENTRAL NC WILL ALSO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BREAKS DOWN ON SUNDAY AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL BE VERY STACKED AND HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AN ORGANIZED SURFACE FRONT TO EXTEND VERY FAR TO THE EAST AS IT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY.
419 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EDGE UPWARD TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHWEST NM. SATELLITE SHOWS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THIS HIGH/S DOMAIN THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAKLY UNSETTLED NW FLOW.
549 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH INTO EASTERN IOWA. NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH ON SUNDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT AS NOSE OF THETA E RIDGE AND PWATS OF 1.
106 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH MID TN BY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
229 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015 High pressure will build in and winds will subside. The cooler air and lighter winds should help regional firefighting efforts, but the light winds and strong morning inversions this weekend may create areas of poor air quality due to high concentrations of wildfire smoke.
LEESIDE TROUGH AND INCOMING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS PERIOD. THOUGH AXIS OF THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.
431 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions will prevail today as the upper level ridge dominates.
213 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND FOR SUNNY WARM WEATHER.