Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, area coming increasingly under the influence of a mid/upper level low over Mexico, and this feature will be advancing into Texas Monday. For Monday, weak upper trough over Texas will lift north.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with SCT to BKN cirrus remaining across the region with an upper low in place across Northern Mexico. Could see some isolated showers across Deep East Texas tomorrow afternoon as the low lifts northward into West Texas. /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to dominate the region through this short term period. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to mid 60s across the region. Slightly warmer overnight temperatures Monday night with lows in the 60s.
920 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 High pressure through Monday. Nearly all guidance suites have been too high with dewpoint values this evening, which is a bit concerning as the lower the Td overnight. the lower the sfc temps should become. This lowering of temps and dewpoints in the forecast has resulted in a slight increase in frost potential for our northeast mountains late tonight, especially across sheltered/protected areas. A high pressure system will bring dry weather to the area through Monday. With light winds tonight, expect lows in the low to mid 40s, with some mid to upper 30s in the northern West Virginia mountains.
734 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 A weak trough will bring a few showers through late this evening, then Monday will be mainly dry and a bit warmer as high pressure builds across Ohio.
The latest surface map features high pressure centered across the southern Great Lakes region, with ridging expanded south and southeast from the center. Aloft, troughing is seen across the East and the West, with ridging found across the central CONUS. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 70s, with dew points mainly in the 40s. The upper level ridge will broaden and nudge east, with the Ohio Valley remaining in northwest flow aloft, while 500 mb heights build in across the region.
/issued 143 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/ There will be an increase in precipitation chances early this week, mainly across west Texas, as an upper level low pressure area, centered in central Mexico, tracks north into the Permian Basin by tomorrow.
707 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 As a strong area of high pressure continues moving off to the east, fair skies will continue this evening before a storm system brings a chance for rain tomorrow. Southerly 850 mb winds will bring WAA into the region overnight which will keep overnight low temps warmer than last night. An area of low pressure will move from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota early tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms approaching the western edge of the CWA.
636 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Dry and pleasant weather will prevail in central Illinois into Monday, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest.
401 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 As a strong area of high pressure continues moving off to the east, fair skies will continue this evening before a storm system brings a chance for rain tomorrow. Southerly 850 mb winds will bring WAA into the region overnight which will keep overnight low temps warmer than last night. An area of low pressure will move from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota early tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms approaching the western edge of the CWA.
856 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Dry and pleasant weather will prevail in central Illinois into Monday, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest.
/issued 349 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/ High pressure continues to build over the region as the upper- level ridge is currently centered over the Great Plains. The weather has been as advertised with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Humidity is relatively comfortable, especially for this time of year with dew points only in the 50s which we can thank dry northwest flow on the downstream side of the high. The Mid-South will remain on the downstream side of the high through Monday which means we have a couple more days of temperatures in the 80s for highs, lows in the mid 50s to low 60s, and dew points in the 50s as northeast flow continues over the region.
The increasing clouds and low level winds above the boundary layer should help keep temperatures a bit warmer compared to last night. High pressure will be moving eastward out of the Midwest tonight. Moisture and cloud cover will be increasing this evening as a low pressure system approaches the state. There will also be some decent low level frontogenesis with the passage of the warm front Monday afternoon.
518 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 19z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to just east of KGCC to the WY/NE line. Mesoanalysis indicated 500J/kg MLCAPE with little MLCIN behind see trough. High-based convection behind lee trough will push into richer atmosphere over far northeast WY/northwest SD.
As a longwave trough slips east across the Mid Atlantic and New England regions, Middle TN is benefiting from the effects of an approaching high pressure system.
Ridgetop locations will experience breezy conditions for a few hours this evening before the wind finally dies down a bit. The latest surface map features high pressure centered across the southern Great Lakes region, with ridging expanded south and southeast from the center. Aloft, troughing is seen across the East and the West, with ridging found across the central CONUS. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 70s, with dew points mainly in the 40s. The upper level ridge will broaden and nudge east, with the Ohio Valley remaining in northwest flow aloft, while 500 mb heights build in across the region.
They will continue to fall overnight dipping down into the low to mid 50s by morning thanks in part to clear skies and light winds allowing for ideal radiational cooling.
533 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and cooler than average weather through Monday.
633 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 High pressure continues over Arkansas this evening.
1037 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 High pressure will extend across the region this week. Overnight: High pressure and associated drier air will gradually spread across the region. By daybreak, temperatures should bottom out in the lower to middle 60s inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s along the coast/far south. Quiet, dry conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure holds through mid-week. Low-level moisture will slowly increase each day as northeast winds gradually shift more onshore in response to high pressure propagating east into the open Atlantic.
Early this afternoon an amplified upper level ridge extended northward along the high Plains.
311 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 A passing cold front has left gusty westerly winds but drier conditions in its wake. A Pacific cold front has just cleared the far eastern portions of the CWA, leaving gusty winds and mild, drier conditions in its wake. Will keep the High Wind Warning going through the 0Z expiration as there is still a chance of 50 kt H700 winds mixing down to the surface in these areas. Low temperatures will be much cooler compared to last night but will still be near or above the seasonal average for most locations.
948 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Changes to sky grids to account for extensive cirrus moving across the region from the south in response to an upper level low in Northern Mexico. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with SCT to BKN cirrus remaining across the region with an upper low in place across Northern Mexico. Could see some isolated showers across Deep East Texas tomorrow afternoon as the low lifts northward into West Texas. /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to dominate the region through this short term period. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to mid 60s across the region. Slightly warmer overnight temperatures Monday night with lows in the 60s.
A passing cold front has left gusty westerly winds but drier conditions in its wake. The winds should generally remain below High Wind criteria through the evening as they continue to decrease, so have allowed the High Wind Warning for that area to expire. A Pacific cold front has just cleared the far eastern portions of the CWA, leaving gusty winds and mild, drier conditions in its wake. Will keep the High Wind Warning going through the 0Z expiration as there is still a chance of 50 kt H700 winds mixing down to the surface in these areas. Low temperatures will be much cooler compared to last night but will still be near or above the seasonal average for most locations.
/issued 209 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/ High clouds were spreading into the area this afternoon ahead of a weak upper level trough over northern Mexico that will lift into the Pecos Valley/Permian Basin by late Monday. Upper level ridge will hold control again this evening with no mentionable thunder chances leading to another benign, seasonable night with fairly light winds but also periods of high clouds. RMcQueen An upper ridge will amplify over the region during the second half of the week and will likely keep conditions dry for the area.
912 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 A convective cloud line streaming westward Gulfside of the Lower Keys produced a waterspout west-northwest of the Harbor Keys late this afternoon. A weak ridge was noted over the northwest Bahamas into the Alantic, with a stronger high over the Great Lakes expanding into the Ohio River Valley. We are monitoring for a possible update to the public zones for a slight increase in rain chances after midnight as the old outflow boundary from earlier convection over Cuba gets carried northwest in the lower tropospheric flow.
/Issued 157 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/ An upper ridge will continue to build over the central and southern plains today leading to dry conditions but increasingly more warm and humid.
Highs today will reach the lower 90s with lows tonight falling to around 70 degrees.
337 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 The upper-level ridge will remain the primary player in our forecast over the next couple of days with hot and dry weather anticipated across the Mid-South. Currently, the ridge axis extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the NNW through the Northern Plains. The deep trough over the eastern CONUS is still present but will lift out today as the ridge builds in. The trough off the west coast will remain cut-off from the mean flow much of this week, but we'll be watching the cut-off low over northern Mexico for potential midweek impacts.
Increased the coverage to much of the CWA through 12z this morning and have the highest pops going across the northeast per hires models suggesting a bit more widespread rain in this location.
129 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Monday will be mainly dry and a bit warmer as high pressure builds across Ohio.
Clouds will lower overnight with light precipitation developing across western Harney and Baker county early Monday morning in advance of an approaching short wave trough.
1040 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 (This evening through Monday) Little change is expected as the upper high pressure continues over Oklahoma through Monday.
A strong upper level ridge remains in place across the central US keeping Nebraska dry for much of the time.
The farther east it goes, the more into a southerly flow we will get, which will open up the region to much warmer temperatures (and humidity) for the rest of the work week.
119 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will extend across the region this week. Overnight: High pressure and associated drier air will gradually spread across the region. By daybreak, temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 60s inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s along the coast/far south. Quiet, dry conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure holds through mid-week. Low-level moisture will slowly increase each day as northeast winds gradually shift more onshore in response to high pressure propagating east into the open Atlantic.
1121 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 A ridge of high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to be the main focus as we enter into the beginning of the week. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 60s, with slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. The warming trend will continue into Monday with highs in the the lower 80s.
Otherwise, area coming increasingly under the influence of a mid/upper level low over Mexico, and this feature will be advancing into Texas Monday. Best (albeit still small) rain chances the rest of the night will generally be across SE TX and extreme coastal SW LA and the adjacent coastal waters, in region of relatively higher PW air and lift to the E/NE of an upper low lifting out of northern MX into central TX. Otherwise, area coming increasingly under the influence of a mid/upper level low over Mexico, and this feature will be advancing into Texas Monday. For Monday, weak upper trough over Texas will lift north.
317 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
More certain is that the increase in moisture/cloudiness will help keep temperatures from warming very aggressively which in turn will limit highs to the lower and middle 80s for most spots.
215 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure exits tonight as a warm front pushes in. High pressure settles into the Ohio Valley and will continue to drift southeastward through the overnight. A warm front moves in from the west tonight, clipping the northern zones of the CWA.
1145 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Dry and pleasant weather will prevail in central Illinois into Monday, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 62 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 86 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 60 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 53 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 10.
(Today and tonight) This afternoon's temperatures will be similar to yesterday's, although mid to high cloud cover will increase from south to north throughout the day thanks to mid to upper level low disrupting the ridge a bit. At least partly cloudy skies will remain present through tonight as the low nears the Red River by early Tue morning. A slight increase in low level moisture and periodic cloud cover will result in slightly warmer morning lows Tue, mainly in the mid 60s.
Gridded model output today is quite similar with across the different models, with warmer air farther north.
130 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure through Monday. Nearly all guidance suites have been too high with dewpoint values this evening, which is a bit concerning as the lower the Td overnight. the lower the sfc temps should become. This lowering of temps and dewpoints in the forecast has resulted in a slight increase in frost potential for our northeast mountains late tonight, especially across sheltered/protected areas. A high pressure system will bring dry weather to the area through Monday. With light winds tonight, expect lows in the low to mid 40s, with some mid to upper 30s in the northern West Virginia mountains.
The CWA sits between the exiting warm front and approaching cool front. Warm and mostly dry weather can be expected beneath the upper ridge axis today.
A few thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast of the trough after midnight over far eastern areas, before moving east into the Dakotas.
336 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 (Today and Tonight) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today as an upper low moves slowly northwest into the Big Bend and Tran Pecos. It will be cooler in the 80s for highs today, with cloudiness and rainfall.
High pressure is centered over northern Ohio and stretching south across the Ohio Valley and into Tennessee. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 40s for the Plateau to the lower 50s elsewhere with clear skies. High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee early this morning.
Otherwise, a surface front/trough from the northwest will push through the cwa into the evening with winds coming around to the north and northwest. The main issue today will be the hot temperatures as with the sunshine we will mix out into the upper 80s to the lower 90s today. The trough/boundary will stall across southern sd as winds turn north to northeast. A short wave trough will then be sliding across the far northern U.
238 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Main concern out of the gates will be scattered thunderstorms through the morning hours on nose/surge of good 850mb moisture transport and warm air advection as a warm front pushes through. Breezy southwest winds will continue to advect warmer/increasingly humid air in the area Monday night.
Dry conditions will continue through the overnight hours as our forecast remains underneath a dry and subsident pattern associated with ridging aloft. Lows look on track to range in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the upper 60s to lower 70s near the immediate coast. The broad upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place over our region Monday before shifting southeast toward the FL peninsula Monday night. Hot temperatures can otherwise be expected again Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, possibly up to the mid 90s in a few of the typically warmer spots in our CWA.
19z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to just east of KGCC to the WY/NE line. Mesoanalysis indicated 500J/kg MLCAPE with little MLCIN behind see trough. High-based convection behind lee trough will push into richer atmosphere over far northeast WY/northwest SD.
222 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 In the short term the upper trough lifts out allowing the subtropical ridge to rebuild.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form over the higher terrain in Montana this evening and make their way into an environment, potentially characterized by MUCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear values up to 50 knots across the southwest later tonight.
1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 As a strong area of high pressure continues moving off to the east, fair skies will continue this evening before a storm system brings a chance for rain tomorrow. Southerly 850 mb winds will bring WAA into the region overnight which will keep overnight low temps warmer than last night. An area of low pressure will move from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota early tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms approaching the western edge of the CWA.
318 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 The trend continues today as upper ridging continues to become more influential. We will see temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 80s and mostly sunny skies.
325 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 A few light showers will be possible across the Illinois River Valley this morning as a warm front lifts northward through the region. 08z/3am radar mosaic shows a few showers spreading as far east as eastern Iowa, and will have to keep an eye on these as they continue to track southeastward along an advancing warm front. Lows tonight will only drop into the lower to middle 60s under a mostly clear sky.
Temperatures will be significantly cooler for the next couple days with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s.
While high pressure remains in control of the area today it will slide to the east during the day. Southeasterly flow on the backside of the ridge will allow for a bit of moisture to work into the region. /Opportunity for shower/storm activity returns after early week fair weather/ Upper-level ridging will transition to a weak upper trough signal midweek as PWAT values roughly double from BMX's Sunday morning observed value of 0.
The convection is expected to depart by daybreak as the nose of the low level jet orients to the east across eastern Neb/KS. Today is still on track to be a hot and breezy/windy day in a very warm airmass under the influence of an upper ridge axis across the plains states. Tonight, a few storms may develop along the high plains or sandhills and this activity is expected to diminish before it reach our area.
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Did a quick touch up on the grids, mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td ones - capturing and maintaining the on-going moderate ridge to valley temperature difference. Ridgetop locations will experience breezy conditions for a few hours this evening before the wind finally dies down a bit. The latest surface map features high pressure centered across the southern Great Lakes region, with ridging expanded south and southeast from the center. Aloft, troughing is seen across the East and the West, with ridging found across the central CONUS. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 70s, with dew points mainly in the 40s. The upper level ridge will broaden and nudge east, with the Ohio Valley remaining in northwest flow aloft, while 500 mb heights build in across the region.
323 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Today and tonight: A broad mid/upper ridge will extend from the central Gulf and into the Upper Plains, with a pleasantly dry low level airmass over our area maintaining the current stretch of dry conditions into today.
Thunderstorms that were fairly vigorous along the ND/SD have weakened significantly as they move off the higher MU CAPE values to our west and into our area. The low level jet is feeding into west central MN, but will also be weakening and moving east as the morning goes on so at this point do not think it will feed the development of stronger convection over our area. This afternoon should be fairly quiet, with surface winds turning northwesterly behind a trough axis. Fairly quiet tonight with lows a few degrees cooler with weak cold air advection.
it looks like our tropical moisture tap has been shunted east and south of the Cheyenne CWA this morning as upper ridge axis shifts into western Nebraska. satellite imagery continues to show a low pressure system off the coast of southern California with moisture streaming into western Idaho and eastern Oregon.
Upper low to our SW will continue to slowly retrograde into west Texas with convection following suit. /issued 948 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/ Changes to sky grids to account for extensive cirrus moving across the region from the south in response to an upper level low in Northern Mexico.
Ridging westward from this high through the Ohio Valley, along with upper level ridging over the Plains states, will bring another dry and seasonably warm afternoon to the quad state region.
Best (albeit still small) rain chances the rest of the night will generally be across SE TX and extreme coastal SW LA and the adjacent coastal waters, in region of relatively higher PW air and lift to the E/NE of an upper low lifting out of northern MX into central TX. Otherwise, area coming increasingly under the influence of a mid/upper level low over Mexico, and this feature will be advancing into Texas Monday. For Monday, weak upper trough over Texas will lift north.
455 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 An approaching warm front will bring an increase in clouds later today. It will remain dry and seasonably cool with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Fri- Sat will be down days wrt convective potential due to increased presence of mid-level ridge, temps will be above normal. More of the same Sun-Mon except a few storms may make into the far wrn CWFA, dependent on position of ridge axis.
1148 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 As a strong area of high pressure continues moving off to the east, fair skies will continue this evening before a storm system brings a chance for rain tomorrow. Southerly 850 mb winds will bring WAA into the region overnight which will keep overnight low temps warmer than last night. An area of low pressure will move from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota early tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms approaching the western edge of the CWA.
A warm and moist surface layer will become prevalent for Monday and Tuesday, and with the mid level ridge building in for that time period expect conditions to respond by becoming warmer and muggier through the week.