Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) The subtropical ridge has taken up residence over the region, maintaining hot and dry conditions throughout West Central TX. The center of the anticyclone is currently located over east TX and may slide slightly east on Friday, but we'll continue to see strong subsidence throughout the mid/upper levels, resulting in drying/warming aloft. Expect temperatures tonight to drop into the lower 70s with Friday afternoon highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
SO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY.
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
807 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 /00Z TAFS/ VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
734 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR STARTS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST NUMBERS THIS SUMMER SEASON TO DATE. UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITIONING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROF FROM THE N.
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR STARTS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST NUMBERS THIS SUMMER SEASON TO DATE. UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITIONING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
Another warm and humid day is underway across the region this afternoon, with mid afternoon temperatures within a few degrees of 90, and dewpoints in the low 70s.
UPPER RIDGE BUILT INTO THE AREA EVEN MORE THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. / ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE.
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FRONT WILL KEEP T/S IN THE LOWER 90S. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS AS THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WARM CORE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND AS A RESULT DEEPENING LOW AT THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
611 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE.
AGAIN FRI AFTER ABOUT 19Z SCT TSTMS TO FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MOVE E TO NE OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN.
744 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
620 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL BE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER INFLUENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING FRIDAY. REBUILDING THE MARINE LAYER ALONG WITH COOLER. THE CYCLONE WILL STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND BECOME POST TROPICAL BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH A FORECAST POSITION ABOUT 370 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. THE HIGH WILL STEER DOLORES AROUND ITS PERIPHERY UNTIL IT CAN GET ABSORBED BY THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE WEST TN ALONG A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. 18Z GFS AND HRRR DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. /ISSUED 729 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MCS'S WELL NORTH OF MY CWA NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE THEN NORTHWARD TO MINNESOTA WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ON SOUTH END NEXT 24 HOURS.
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RIDGE RUNNING MCS'S WELL NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
1218 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE AND NORTHERN IDAHO WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 62 40 53 / 80 70 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 57 37 48 / 60 80 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 55 37 49 / 70 80 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 56 36 45 / 50 90 20 50.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS THE DRY SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABSENT FOR TOMORROW.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT OUT OF SOUTHERN MI CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS STALLED OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZATION OF AN UPPER LOW OUT OF THE SHEARED OUT WEST TO EAST AXIS OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SINKING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON THE NOSE OF A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LL JET. WILL BE STEERED NEARLY DUE SOUTH BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING WEST THEN SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ARRIVING SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. /ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO MIDLAND TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE COMPLICATED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SRN MINNESOTA/NRN IOWA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ARCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMALL CHANCES OF -SHSN TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD TAPER AFT 19/05Z TO AOB 12 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 19/05Z WITH PERIODIC MID AND UPPER CLOUDS AFFECTING TAF SITES AS DISTURBANCES CARVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS PER OBS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S NOW AT PARIS.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND AIR TEMPERATURE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE NEARLY STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE UPPER LOW. THIS LOW ISNT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY 200-400 FT OFF THE GROUND AND THE PRECIP IS FALLING WITH COOLER DOWNDRAFTS.
The strong cold front has pushed south out of our area. /issued 301 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) A cold front has moved through all of West Central Texas this afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s across the Big Country to the low 40s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
Brief window of partial clearing looks to be possible on the backside of the exiting precip tonight, aiding in temps relatively quickly dropping off below freezing. This low tonight into tomorrow will undergo quick cyclogenesis on the southern side of ridging aloft simultaneously weakening, starting off near the SD/MN/IA borders, then spinning southeastward into northern MO and along the Mississippi River. Primary precip type will be rain during the day on Saturday but particularly when temps are closer toward the freezing mark, snow mixing in will certainly be possible. Cold front later in the week should bring temps back closer toward normal for late March.
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY. BUT THIS CLEARING LINE MAY STALL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FINALLY PUSHES THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST. SATURDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE MILLE LACS TO BRAINERD LAKES REGION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY DURING THE DAY. A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN CANADA TO ANOTHER LOW THAT WAS MOVING INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE PLAINS. BUT MODELS BROUGHT QPF INTO THAT PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM MINNESOTA TO IOWA.
1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 COLD FRONT MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS. /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SPREAD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR EXTREME NW ZONES ATTM WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION ON IT.
Road temperatures are currently in the upper 30s and lower 40s and the higher March sun angle has prevented any accumulation. A cooler and drier air mass will work into the area from the north. Mid/upper low pressure over the upper Midwest will keep the pressure gradient across the area overnight and into tomorrow. Clouds will try to clear out tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to mid 20s. Although since we are still in the middle of March, we will not issue a freezing warning at this time.
WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40.
1003 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SPREAD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR EXTREME NW ZONES ATTM WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION ON IT. /ISSUED 703 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT IS MOVG INTO NW PORTIONS OF CWA. AND ALSO ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LA. ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS AREA LATER THIS EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW.
924 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BUT WITH SO MANY LOCATIONS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE LAST WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. BUT PRIMARY ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE START OF THE STORM.
A LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING STRETCHING FROM PIT TO LIT TO SJT. AS THIS FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD FURTHER INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME POST FRONT RAIN AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SINKS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND DIGS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS AND BECOMES AND OPEN WAVE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
The main upper low should stay over the upper Midwest, but there should be enough wide scale lift through the column to produce enough rainfall originating in the mid levels to overcome dry air at the surface in the western half of the region. The sunshine should be short-lived however, as the aforementioned upper low will begin to pivot southward across our area Saturday night.
THIS BAND EXTENDS WEST TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE UP TO 1 INCH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE PIVOT POINT OF THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.
WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW AND NEW SNOW COVER. SIDED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THEY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
/ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO MIDLAND TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH WITH 500 MB TROUGH NOW OVER FAR NRN SD INTO SE MN. MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT WAVES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ELONGATED TROUGH OVER FAR SRN ND CONTINUES THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH SATURDAY WITH CLEARING DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
SHORT-RANGE MODEL TRENDS ACCELERATED THE COLD FRONT SPEED EARLIER TODAY.
This clearing line will be the determining factor of what locations fall below freezing.
FREEZING LEVEL IS LOWER SINCE THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 700 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY AT 12000 FEET. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE DEVELOPMENT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON TONIGHT. TOMORROW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE RAINFALL FINALLY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOWS MAY REACH THE LOW 20S FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. WHERE LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND QUITE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ALONG WITH MODEST HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL EXIST FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR EXTREME NW ZONES ATTM WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION ON IT. /ISSUED 703 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT IS MOVG INTO NW PORTIONS OF CWA. AND ALSO ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LA. ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS AREA LATER THIS EVE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN HAD ENDED AS THE LOWER LAYERS HAD MIXED OUT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALL OF THE ECHOES CURRENTLY ON RADAR IS STILL VIRGA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RANGING FROM 10 DEGREES IN DEEP VALLEYS UP TO 30 DEGREES ON RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW.
DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA AS SKIES ARE TRYING TO CLEAR OVER THAT AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE DEFORMATION ALOFT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN IS FOCUSED IN CONCERT WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH. AND THE PROPENSITY OF BLOCKING REGIMES TO BREAK DOWN MORE SLOWLY THAN SIMULATED. WE DID RELY ON THE MOS-BASED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST HIGHS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.
742 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BUT WITH SO MANY LOCATIONS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE LAST WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. BUT PRIMARY ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE START OF THE STORM.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS TAKEN A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. NORTHERLY WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD TAPER AFT 19/05Z TO AOB 12 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 19/05Z WITH PERIODIC MID AND UPPER CLOUDS AFFECTING TAF SITES AS DISTURBANCES CARVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1009 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE DEFORMATION ALOFT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN IS FOCUSED IN CONCERT WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH. AND THE PROPENSITY OF BLOCKING REGIMES TO BREAK DOWN MORE SLOWLY THAN SIMULATED. WE DID RELY ON THE MOS-BASED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST HIGHS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. DO EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS TAKEN A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EDGES EASTWARD. STILL ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY UNDER A NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS IOWA.
901 PM MDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. SUB ZERO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
703 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT IS MOVG INTO NW PORTIONS OF CWA. AND ALSO ALONG A QUASISNTRY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LA. ONLY VERY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS AREA LATER THIS EVE. /ISSUED 202 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND CENTRAL LA TO CONTINUE MOVING N INTO N LA AND NE TX THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BRING DRIER AIR AND THE END OF PRECIPITATION FROM W TO E WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND ON TAP.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY.
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC 850 MB FLOW IS QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL AR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS DOWN WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR. ON THE COLD SIDE FOR MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GET EVEN CLOSER SAT NT. FREEZING LEVELS DO NOT DEFINITIVELY DROP BELOW 800 FT AGL AND THICKNESS PROFILES LACK VERTICAL AMPLIFICATION. LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WIDER VIEW SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NORTH FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN THE MORNING AND THE FORECAST SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE BETTER LIFTING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA / FLORIDA COAST LATE SATURDAY.
1221 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. CLOUDS WL INCREASE OVRNGT AHD OF THIS LOW. EXPECTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD. BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES TO PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WITH ARND A COUPLE OF INCHES PSBL IN THE WV/MD RIDGES.
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS. THIS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES SE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET.
325 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
333 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH THE WEEK.