Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
304 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Low pressure over the Wabash Valley early this morning will travel up the Ohio River over the course of the day, pulling a cold front along behind it. We'll keep some clouds and light winds through the evening hours, but as the high approaches we may clouds break up enough and see the winds drop off enough by early Monday morning to support some valley fog. As we move into the start of the new work week, the upper level trough will be exiting across the Northeast while a more quasi-zonal flow settles in aloft. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will be centered over the OH Valley.
347 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley today and will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic with scattered showers in the mountains.
126 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Rain is likely tonight into Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the area. Light to moderate isentropic ascent on the 290-295K sfc will bring us chances for precipitation starting late this afternoon and continuing into Sunday as an upper level trough swings through the Great Lakes. Best chances will be with the cold front, which approaches our western CWA border later tonight and continues eastward through Sunday evening. Otherwise, with clouds and rain, expect low temperatures in the low to mid 40s tonight. Expect increased north-northwest flow off Lake Michigan behind the cold front on Sunday, so have kept going small craft advisories for that period. Highs on Monday will climb to around 60F, with Monday night lows in the low-mid 40s.
Mid level ridging centered over the Arizona and a 500 mb trough over the eastern half of the CONUS will provide subsidence across the region through the period. High temperatures today and Monday are expected to range from the lower 80s near the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 across the west.
159 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with northwest flow through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high is centered over the Upper Midwest with lee trof extending from central MT through eastern WY. Warm advection will continue today with increasing southerly winds as lee trof nudges eastward. A clipper embedded in the northwest flow will drive a weak cold front through on Monday with gusty northwest winds.
302 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Weak high pressure today will give way to a dry cold front that is expected to cross the region tonight.
Wind should increase tomorrow afternoon near 21Z and blow more from the west/southwest and help to thin out the haze as a weak cold front passes through.
227 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure will remain in control through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area late Sunday night.
247 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Today will be another nice day across the region as the CWA remains located between a high amplitude ridge aloft to our west and deep upper troughing across the Midwest.
455 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a ridge over the western U. the 500 mb trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning with the axis moving slowly east to the ewrn seaboard by 12z Mon. Models suggest that the pattern will become more zonal toward the end of the week as troughing from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes lifts off to the northeast and the western CONUS ridge gives way to a trough moving in from the eastern Pacific. However, as the trough and weak cold front move through Monday night there may be some light showers over the north and especially the east.
200 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Much warmer morning today versus yesterday with current temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s thanks to widespread cloud cover. Radar also shows widely scattered showers across west Tennessee ahead of an approaching cold front across the Midwest, and this activity will gradually spread through Middle Tennessee during the day before exiting the area by early evening. Cold front will move through late today into tonight, with lows down into the 40s by Monday morning and highs only making it into the 60s to around 70 by Monday afternoon. A warming trend with continued dry weather is anticipated the rest of the work week as a weak upper ridge develops along the Gulf Coast.
On Sunday, clouds will decrease through the day with highs in the lower to mid 60s. This is especially the case over portions of northeast NE where afternoon humidity values will be the lowest.
1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 As mid level troughiness pivots southeastward into the Ohio Valley, weak ripples of energy will rotate light precipitation across portions of the region tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure builds into the region Sunday night into Monday. Current indications favor southern Illinois for the highest frost chances. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Sunday. With weak southerly return flow setting up, we should be a bit warmer Monday night, primarily in the lower 40s.
1256 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Rain chances will return late today with the approach of a cold front. Still a wide range of solutions from the latest model data on the timing and impact of a cold front and trough axis that will slowly cross Ohio today. Thus, will keep rain chances focused on late this afternoon, with the highest probabilities main over Ohio. A nice surge of warmer air ahead of the front will push temperatures back toward seasonal levels. Conditions will improve Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
322 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Today and Tonight: A broad mid level trough remains locked over the eastern two thirds of the nation this morning with a ridge over the west.
1120 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A sharp upper level trough over the midwest will push east through Pennsylvania late Sunday into Sunday night.
Northwest flow persists in the mid levels between ridging over the west and an expansive mean trough over the east. Drier air will filter in behind the front and the reinforcing cooler air will keep temps below average across the state.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACRS THE AREA SAT. SETTLING E OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN WHILE A MODEST LONGWAVE TROF AXIS MOVES THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE MISS RIVER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DEEPENING WARM BLYR WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PRECIP BEFORE HITTING A SUB-FREEZING GROUND.
712 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AND EAST OFF THE COAST DURING TODAY.
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS LIKE LECONTE. EXPECT A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 28 52 30 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 25 47 28 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 40 26 49 29 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 21 43 24 / 10 10 0 0.
/ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. AS THE HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND FREEZING IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST BY SATURDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE TAPPED INTO A POLAR AIRMASS REACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SCOURS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONTAL INVASION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RISING HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS DEVELOPING HIGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS THIS EVENING (6 TO 8 PM). NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S.
1057 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND GRADUAL DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN SOME COLDER INLAND AREAS TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE U. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BUT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE CIGS ARE ERODING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD SE INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW OF OUR METRO LOCATIONS HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
/ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ COLD FRONT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM WITH BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO COLLEGE STATION/CROCKETT AREA WHICH HAS BUMPED UP WINDS AND IS PUSHING IN DRIER AIR. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO LA/MS AND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BECOME MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
405 AM PST FRI DEC 18 2015 WARMER TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLING. AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
303 AM PST FRI DEC 18 2015 CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THE SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WEAK CAA LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO SAT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE SURGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS TIGHTENED THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON.
918 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES AND COOL CONDITIONS DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. BUT THE END RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TODAY VS YESTERDAY DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. A BRIEF PD OF FREEZING TEMPS IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY SAT MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WRN CONUS. 13 BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
619 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DRY WEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BETTER WITH AN EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING SATURDAY SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
COLDER AIR HAS SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT'S NOW ALMOST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. WE'D BETTER ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WHILE WE CAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON.
632 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COOL AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY WEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BETTER WITH AN EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING SATURDAY SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
500 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 COLD FRONT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM WITH BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO COLLEGE STATION/CROCKETT AREA WHICH HAS BUMPED UP WINDS AND IS PUSHING IN DRIER AIR. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO LA/MS AND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BECOME MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
851 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER WHICH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. VFR WEATHER WILL BECOME PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
911 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF AREA WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
658 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
659 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SE NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR 3KM AND ARW SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP MOVING NE W/THE BULK ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S ON A GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE KEYS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
114 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PCPN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR FA AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
228 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO IOWA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLANKETING THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY.
243 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 20Z water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low over southwest NEB, which pretty much dominates the central U. At the surface, an area of low pressure had formed over eastern NEB with a trough of low pressure extended southeast through the Ozarks. For tonight the models are in good agreement the upper level low and its surface reflection will drift north towards southern MN. Towards the end of the weekend a mid level low pressure cuts off from the main flow over the southern Rockies and eventually lifts out over the plains. But the stronger low level dry air advection hold off until this evening, which should allow the low clouds to scatter out.
930 AM PST MON NOV 30 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
354 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
245 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 Latest WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru Nebraska, on its way to wreaking a little winter havoc on MN over the next couple of days.
/ISSUED 937 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ STATUS QUO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE BEHIND COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING.
1256 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
310 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 STATIONARY FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
1130 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS.
343 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET MENTIONED ABOVE IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE JET TO ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN HELPING LIFT FOG THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIPITATION WORKS INLAND LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AS MIXING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD WARM THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY.
1052 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO MANY MOUNTAIN TOWNS IN WESTERN COLORADO. A DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DUMBBELL OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE NORTHERN TRAILING LOW PRESSURE ENERGY LINGERING OVER WY. A DRIER NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION ON TUE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND STRETCHES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
1034 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A POTENT VORT MAX WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SPEEDS EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITHIN THE LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS POTENT FEATURE. EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST THROUGH TODAY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS A SECOND WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND PROVIDES AT LEAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR THIS AREA. MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WRKHGT READINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUPPORTING MARGINAL HIGH WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS AS THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OUT EAST.
314 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. 18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
PATCHY AREAS OF -RA/-DZ/BR WILL HELP TO REDUCE VSBYS AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS WHICH WILL HOVER BETWEEN 3-6 HUNDRED FEET FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
256 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY.
343 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 THE SFC AND UPPER LOW HAVE TRACKED INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM. A FEW LIGHTER SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND THEN ROTATE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE LOW. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS AND THUS MOST OF ANY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MELTING ON PAVED SURFACES. THE LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WITH MID 30 FOR HIGHS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG TEMP INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ENJOYING THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS MORNING. AT 10 AM, CSV REPORTED A TOASTY 61 DEGS, WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO THE WEST HAD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
1009 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 THE SATELLITE PICTURES PUT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW NOW GETTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING IS SWINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE STATE RIGHT NOW CONTINUING TO BRING SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAYS READINGS AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS AND SKIES CLEAR. THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST DIRECTION. EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS THEN ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.