Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rather quiet weather continues in the short term period as high pressure aloft builds over the region. At the surface, high pressure pushes a bit farther westward, closer to Texas allowing the pressure gradient to relax a bit.
Upper level analysis shows low over southwest Ontario, with ridge axis over the intermountain west. Temps are mostly in the 80s across the area, with some 70s across the higher Black Hills. Nice early summer weather will continue into Sunday as ridge slowly slides east across the Rockies. Ridge will weaken as a disturbance pushes through the Northern Rockies and into the plains by Sunday evening.
612 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will move east of the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build over the region Sunday before another weak cold front drops across Lake Erie Sunday night. A weak cold front will continue to move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will briefly build over the region on Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front is forecast to drop across the lake Sunday Night.
Dew point temps are in the 60s and a light north wind flow north of the boundary, while south winds were light south with dew point temps around 70 to the lower 70s. This area will have the highest POP in the forecast. Have indcd the highest POPS over SE AR, in the vicinity of the residual bndry/s fm this mrng/s convection.
558 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Sunday morning with seasonable temperatures and dry weather. As the high shifts east on Sunday, moisture will steadily return back into the region.
Lows tonight still mild in the lower 70s and highs Sunday in the 80s.
313 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A cold front will pass through the area this evening.
Daytime highs should reach into the lower to mid 90s over inland areas away from the coast.
High pressure is slowly moving southeast, with a weak area of low pressure noted over North Dakota. As such, have sided with the higher end guidance for high temperatures and wind speeds, along with the lower end guidance for surface dewpoints. GFS 700mb dewpoints are around +/- 0C, so surface dewpoints will crash into the low 40s. An upper ridge will dominate conditions for Sunday, while the low levels remain less favorable for mixing with a easterly wind. A wave will flatten the ridge, and southerly flow will increase humidity.
A weak high pressure will take charge of our weather through this afternoon and into tonight.
325 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will move east of the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build over the region Sunday before another weak cold front drops across Lake Erie Sunday night. A weak cold front will continue to move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will briefly build over the region on Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front is forecast to drop across the lake Sunday Night.
Upper level trof axis from the Upper Midwest south into MO/KS will continue to move east this morning, and by 18z extend from the eastern Great Lakes south over the Ohio Valley, with a weak "cold" front to the Ohio River. Modest mid trop NW flow will persist with subtle waves within the flow after the stronger trof passes east.
Therefore will continue with the previous forecast of chancy pops through the period given the high degree of uncertainty. Rain chances look to subside by Sunday afternoon as large scale ridging and drier air advects in from the west.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s under mostly sunny skies.
This will draw warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures pushing well above 20C. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday into Sunday night as a series of H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies downstream of a weakening ridge. Steep low/mid level lapse rates, increasing instability within a prevailing southerly flow, and low level convergence associated with a strengthening lee side trough will provide ample support for thunderstorm development across the high plains late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Indeed, plenty of agitated cumulus has formed in the Nebraska sandhills along the northern edge of 850-700mb thetae ridging, which extends southwestward into eastern CO. In fact NAM ML cape in the lowest 100mb is only about 200 j/kg at 00Z this evening. Plenty of mid level moisture remains on the periphery of this high, especially in our southern zones. Lows should stay in the lower to mid 60s south of I 90 where mid level clouds could linger and remaining south of the slowly advancing cold front. This front hangs up just north of a Sioux City to Storm Lake line by midday Sunday, with strong 850mb thetae ridging extending northward toward the Sioux City vicinity in the afternoon. It is certainly unstable Sunday afternoon in our far southern zones, but with weak wind shear in the lowest 2km.
This activity is associated with an upper level trough which will be passing across the local area today but with little in the way of low level moisture to support mention of precip chances.
An upper trough moving onshore today will impact the weather in the plains as we near the 4th of July holiday.
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a broad upper level trough will continue over the eastern part of the nation into the early part of the week. A weak cold front lingers west to east over our region Sunday into early week helping in the generation of showers and storms. Moisture is still in place and this warming has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to the highest levels seen this week at 1500 to 2000 j/kg. With less cloudy and drier conditions on Sunday, highs will warm into the low 90s in piedmont areas to mid 80s in the mountains.
Upper level ridging building over the Northern Rockies has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across much of the area this afternoon.
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. North of the ridge some troughing will be in the forecast area. Temperatures continue climbing through the upper 80s and will top out in the low 90s for most locations. Temperatures remain on track for the low 90s this afternoon and with cloud cover and winds around 5 mph overnight expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Surface ridging will continue from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico.
It will continue to be breezy through Sunday, largely due to a weak trough slowly moving across the Great Basin. A bit of moisture will be pulled up into the area ahead of the trough, bringing more clouds and a slight chance of showers over the high terrain along and north of the Mogollon Rim on Sunday.
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough draped along the Mid-West with elongated upper level high pressure stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic.
A weakening trough will cross the forecast area tonight through Sunday.
Cold front sitting near the TN river expected to make little movement today.
305 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure over the lower Missouri Valley will shift east tonight into Sunday allowing warmer air to spread back into the region for Sunday. Another strong upper trough will drop out of south central Canada during this same time pulling a cold front into the upper Midwest and northern plains tonight. A better chance of more widespread storms is expected Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with the stalled front in the north and trough through central Nebraska into Kansas.
The most likely scenario is strong/severe storms will roll off the high plains into portions of central KS late Sun night or early Mon morning. Wed-Fri: Warmer temps and dry conditions look to build into the region for the rest of the week, as the medium range models both suggest a large upper ridge will build into the Rockies and the High Plains. This will push convective chances well to the N-NE of the forecast area, with max temps climbing into the low to mid 90s. Otherwise, south/southwest winds will be on the increase Sunday as high pressure moves east of the region.
Winds will remain relatively light, although we could see reading closer to 15 mph in the highway 14 corridor where the gradient tightens in the afternoon. If anything does develop, cannot rule out an isolated severe storm, though shear is on the lower side.
Upper trough lingers Sunday, with a potential repeat in convection.
Backdoor cold front laying NW to SE across the northeast zones was keeping much cooler air off to our NE today. In the meantime, a weak upper ridge overhead will lead to light winds and clear skies tonight. Temperatures will be warmer than recent nights. Including the morning and midday long range model solutions into the forecast, there still may be some very slight chances for precip later in the period, but with the strength of the ridge and recent history over the region, it is fairly safe to assume that very little if anything will come from any impulses that do form within the ridge.
The persistent ridge that has been in place over the region will be shifting eastward on Sunday as a Pacific wave pushes across the Great Basin. Could see a few cells over the lower elevations of the Four Corners from Cortez east to Pagosa Springs with strong outflow winds a concern, especially with the Lightner Creek Wildfire west of Durango.
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 The isolated thunderstorms that developed in the vicinity of the old synoptic cold front over northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas have pretty well faded. Sunday will see more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms even as the front moves to the north of the area as a warm front.
251 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level ridge will be building over the state through tonight, but a weak disturbance will flatten the ridge Sun afternoon. Temps in the high valley areas on Sun look like they will be similar to today. Over the southeast plains, temps should be warmer than today by several degrees.
A cold front may sag into the Ohio river valley this evening, but is expected to stall to our northwest, keeping the somewhat humid airmass in place. Sunday looks like it may stay dry as heights start to build allowing for a slightly warmer day. They all depict general troughiness through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to start the week.
Also, dry air is in place at the surface and in the lower troposphere based on latest surface map and model soundings. Warmer low temperatures are expected tonight compared to yesterday with surface winds staying elevated. A cold front is expected to start advancing southward into northern NEB by the early afternoon. A mid-level short wave trough moves southeastward from the Northern High Plains into Central SD/Western NE late Sun afternoon to late Sunday night. Moderate instability should be in place Sunday afternoon/evening (largely 1200-2000 J/kg) with surface dew points from the lower 50s in the eastern NEB Panhandle to lower 60s in north central NEB.
518 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A warm front will lift across the region tonight.
the 500mb subtropical ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas will continue to provide subsidence across the area today through tonight. /issued 357 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 700mb ridge across the northwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will move little tonight through Sunday. A 30kt low level jet across the lower Texas coast will provide another breezy afternoon across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today.
302 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Cold front crosses this afternoon.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s in most locations each day, with lows tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s. Hi-res guidance continues to show this potential mainly along/south of US 30 in IN and south of US 24 in OH along a very subtle secondary trough. Lows tonight will be a little cooler in the low- mid 60s. with highs into the low-mid 80s Sunday. The first will come late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a stronger vort max and associated 110 kt upper jet through the Northern Great Lakes forces a trailing/slowing cold front south into the local area.
A cold front across northeast North Dakota into Saskatchewan as of 14 UTC will propagate southwest through the day. Weak wave passing through the area rotating around upper low over Manitoba continues to produce some very light rain showers over the area. Low pressure aloft was skirting along the international border. The upper level low will keep high temperatures in north central/ northeast areas below average (low 70s). While upper level ridging starts nudging into the southwest where above average highs are forecast (upper 80s).
High pressure will build into the area tonight into Sunday. Highs look to be a little warmer than those observed today. The main story through the new work week will be the much warmer temperatures as compared to the last week or two, with periodic precipitation chances.
Kept the highest pops south, diminishing to slight chances further north. Near normal temperatures can be expected with highs in the lower 90s with lows in the 70s with continued humid conditions.
However, scattered thunderstorms were already well underway over the higher terrain of north-central NM and far south-central CO.
The mid and upper level pattern will feature northwest flow aloft over the Central Plains with a broad amplifying ridge building into an anticyclone by the middle part of the week. Return flow sets up Sunday as high pressure slides east.
Otherwise, brief break in the cloud cover this morning will give way to increasing clouds which are already streaming into the region ahead of showers being driven by approaching short wave trof. Water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Manitoba Lakes region early this morning. This low will move into northwest Ontario by this evening continuing to Lake Superior by 12Z Sunday. Highs today will range from 65 to 70 over far northern Minnesota to the lower to middle seventies from the Brainerd Lakes region into northwest Wisconsin. Expect highs in the lower to middle seventies.
dragging associated troughiness from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions to New England. An upper ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico region while it/s center shifts from over FL to the central Gulf. The meandering deep layer ridging bisecting the area from west to east continues to drive the forecast.
220 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A cold front/outflow boundary has moved south into the area behind convection which moved southeastward into central Texas earlier today.
/Tonight through Sunday/ High pressure ridge will continue to move east across the state this evening and begin to pull east after midnight.
1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Quiet weather for most of today with mostly sunny skies and temps in the lower to mid 80s. ESRL HRRR/RAP/HRRR/Highres NMM and Nam models all suggest that some convection could develop in central NE this afternoon by 20z along a developing warm front.
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight and move east on Sunday.
Quiet weather should then occur this evening, before cold front slides southeast into the area Sunday into Sunday evening. There may be a cap that holds things back in our area, thus the lower end PoPs.
Deep layer ridging bisects the area from west to east this morning with light flow and a very moisture column.
After an unseasonably cool and refreshing morning with lows in the 50s this morning, the rapid increase in moisture will keep temperatures much warmer tonight, holding in the 60s Sunday morning. Noticeably hotter, as a warm front lifts north into Kansas. Getting into the Another round of thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday into Sunday night as a series of H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies downstream of a weakening ridge. Steep low/mid level lapse rates, increasing instability within a prevailing southerly flow, and low level convergence associated with a strengthening lee side trough will provide ample support for thunderstorm development across the high plains late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
A weather disturbance is currently producing some thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern Colorado and is expected to emerge onto the plains early this evening. 850mb temperatures warm about 7F to 11F degrees across the area supporting afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s. At the start of the period, northwesterly flow prevails aloft with weak ridging over the western portion of the CONUS.
943 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Atlantic high pressure will remain to the east while a trough develops inland. Lows from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast look on track. A weak lee trough is expected to develop during the day which should allow for an earlier, stronger sea breeze boundary to push inland.
/issued 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ Subsidence downstream of an upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico will result in decreasing deep layer moisture and rainfall chances over the next few days.
Mainly dry conditions are expected late tonight into Thursday morning, followed by renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through.
Water vapor loop had upper low remaining over southwest MAN and a short wave over north SD was rotating around the southern periphery of the upper low. Water vapor loop shows upper level low remains over southwest MAN. Upper level low pressure system over southwest Canada will move slowly east overnight. Thursday will see similar temps and conditions with upper low only slightly farther northeast and mostly aftn shower/storm threat in the nrn fcst area.
513 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low along the US/Canadian border. South of the low westerly flow was moving over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving across Western Kansas. Meanwhile shortly after noon an upper level short wave trough will deepen just east of Norton and Graham counties near the dry line. Due to the high CAPE values becoming available quite early in the afternoon as the upper level short wave trough deepens overhead, severe thunderstorms could start earlier than is typical.
Any storms that intersect or cross outflow boundaries will have the highest potential to go severe.
A warm front is forecast to cross Indiana from the southwest overnight and Thursday. Next our weather will come under control of high pressure covering most of the United States east of the Mississippi.
High pressure in control during the short term period keeps the forecast rather benign.
However, with little push of cooler air into the state, temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s once more.
Water vapor loop indicating closed upper low rolling northeastward acrs the SD/Canadian border region, with cyclonic southwesterlies arching down toward the mid MS RVR Valley. Then, the central plains upper short wave trof approaches late tonight for a possible uptick in overnight and early thu morning convection for isolated to sctrd showers/storms in the southern and southeastern CWA, but marginal at best LLJ convergence make this another low confidence call. Then an approaching upper trof in progressive westerlies, and arrival of a weak NNE-to-SSW oriented sfc front pushing into the western CWA from central IA, may allow for isolated to sctrd thunderstorms to POP up in central Ia and possibly make it into the far west central and northwestern CWA By late afternoon.
525 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low continuing to drift over south central Canada north of North Dakota.
721 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Rain-free weather, will be with us through Thursday morning, as high pressure along the New England coast, maintains control.
649 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an upper level trough moving across portions of the northern Plains, with its trough axis extending southeast into portions of MN/IA and northern MO. This trough will swing through this evening into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers/storms to the region. Activity will shift mainly south of the region on Thursday, as surface ridging briefly takes hold.
508 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Aviation Section Updated An upper level low pressure system will exit the region tonight, as light rain showers diminish around the Havre area early this evening.
1116 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an upper level trough moving across portions of the northern Plains, with its trough axis extending southeast into portions of MN/IA and northern MO. This trough will swing through this evening into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers/storms to the region. Activity will shift mainly south of the region on Thursday, as surface ridging briefly takes hold.
Half inch hail will be possible, but freezing levels over 14000 FT will diminish the potential for large hail. High temps will reach the 88 to 93F range, with the cooler temps toward the Indiana border due to morning convection.
/issued 236 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb subtropical ridge across northern mexico and southwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Thursday.
Although high pressure continues to build gradually over the Srn US, a progressive zonal pattern over the Central US will keep the sfc pressure gradient tighter than normal over TX.
1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was producing showers and storms across western Wisconsin.
1025 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Aviation section updated A warm front is forecast to cross Indiana from the southwest overnight and Thursday. Next our weather will come under control of high pressure covering most of the United States east of the Mississippi.
740 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
659 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Upper level low pressure system over southwest Canada will move slowly east overnight. Thursday will see similar temps and conditions with upper low only slightly farther northeast and mostly aftn shower/storm threat in the nrn fcst area.
Other, more isolated storms or perhaps small clusters are expected to develop along a weakened cold front in the Flint Hills and south-central Kansas, perhaps aided by a weak 700 mb thermal trough moving eastward over Kansas.
Otherwise, most areas will be rain-free with temperatures holding in the low to mid 70s. While the high debris cloudiness will continue to dissipate, expect low (stratus) clouds to develop esp over the interior toward morning with patchy fog possible. Ridge locating in proximity to the waters will produce light south winds with seas 2 ft or less near the immediate coast and around 2 to 3 ft offshore.
Much of the same for Wednesday with temps a few degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will warm a degree or two each day over NM as high pressure continues to build into New Mexico.
Drier air will result in more breaks in this lower cloud deck (and possibly a later onset than currently advertised in the TAFs), with VFR conditions resuming after 16Z and persisting through the end of the TAF period. Rain chances slim to none overnight as strong ridging aloft has warmed the column up and capped the region.
731 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday.
East of this feature, a ridge was present from the Ohio Valley north into northern Ontario. West and southwest of the North Dakota low, a fairly zonal pattern extended to the Pacific coast while a closed low was located off the coast of central British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over southwestern Manitoba with a cold front extending south southeast into Minnesota, then ssw into eastern Nebraska and central Kansas.
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Scattered showers continue to rotate around stacked upper low over southern Canadian Prairie Provinces.