Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
501 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Not much has changed across the area over the last day, with high pressure and an upper level ridge still placed just to our NE and in control of the weather across eastern Kentucky. Light winds and high pressure still in control will make conditions in the valleys conducive to fog development once again tonight. As we head into Wednesday, a weakening cold front will begin approaching from our NW. A pattern change will be under way as the period starts, with the persistent upper ridge which has been over our area getting suppressed to the south as a transient trough moves southeast over the northeast CONUS. This will allow a surface cold front to move southeast through the area on Wednesday night.
Pattern to shift as a cold front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of interstate 20, on Wednesday.
237 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. Pattern remains the same with a southwest to northeast oriented ridge. Temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year to start the period as the responsible upper-level ridge erodes with an approaching trough from the West.
Low level high pressure begins to spread across the Central Plains behind a cold front this afternoon.
Temperatures will lower back to near normal this weekend with a cooler onshore flow and increased winds. Northerly flow aloft continues over California with an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and a long wave trough over the western interior. The ridge will slowly build inland to the north through Wednesday while an upper low forms over the lower Colorado River Valley.
340 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Today and tonight: The mid/upper low which has inflated rain chances across the area over the past several days is now finally withdrawing toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Mild and mainly dry weather expected across the CWA through most of Wednesday as a short upper ridge moves across the region. Temperatures warmer today but still a little below seasonal averages with mainly light winds. Should see clouds begin increasing from the south tonight as a low pressure area develops over the Desert Southwest later today and tonight and moisture lifts northward towards the area.
135 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 23z sfc analysis shows a stagnant weather pattern with weak high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky. As such, expect a decent ridge to valley temperature difference through the night with areas of fog developing in the valleys - locally dense near the rivers and other bodies of water.
A cold frontal passage tonight will have limited moisture and only bring a small chance of a shower or sprinkle. This front will bring in a noticeably cooler air mass for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, with highs generally 65 to 70 and lows at night down into the 40s.
553 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Today-Wed: Scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing across Southeast KS where no doubt closest to the slowly-moving & weakening cold front. The sfc cyclone's strengthening would be induced by a deepening upper- deck trof that'll undergo modest cyclogenesis over primarily AZ on Wed. However, the sfc cyclone would remain well west of the CWA as the cut-off low would enable the mid-upper ridge extending from strong high pressure centered over the TX Gulf Coast to Alberta & Saskatchewan to greatly amplify. Fri-Sun: With the afore-mentioned high-amplitude ridge covering the Great Plains dry weather would continue for most of the upcoming weekend.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Continued warmer than normal and with the exception of our northeast, low chances of mainly afternoon and early evening convection is expected through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. /22/ A mid level ridge will begin to build into the region on Tuesday night as the weak upper low that has been partly responsible for the increased moisture values over our region continues to weaken and eject to the SE.
The airmass will continue to trend warmer and drier today.
The upper low currently over far eastern MT will lift across the region and into southern Ontario today. Temps will stay in the low to mid 50s today as even as rain tapers off this afternoon clouds will keep us pretty cool. Tonight, there will be a bit of light rain lingering over the northeastern counties during the evening, but otherwise a drying trend will start as northwesterly flow aloft sets up behind the upper low.
516 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 A weak cold front will move across northern Maine this afternoon then stall. The front will move back north in the form of a warm front later tonight and Wednesday.
138 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. The ridge will continue to hold across the region on Tuesday. Since the area is on the backside of the ridge, the low level moisture will be on the increase, so there should be an increase in cu for Tuesday. Cold front will be pushing up the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, but the night should be dry. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front will move through on Wednesday.
307 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Mid level trough this morning continues to rotate northeast towards the far northern plains while the southern stream elongated trough continues to impact much of the western and central conus through the period, advecting mid level moisture into the portions of the central and southern plains. Post frontal stratus continues to build east over the CWA for the morning hours, however expect this to mix out during the late afternoon as the drier and cooler airmass advects into the region. Will keep small chances for showers in the far south Wednesday morning before drier air in the low levels moves on south and any significant isentropic upglide diminishes.
350 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Today-Wed: Scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing across Southeast KS where no doubt closest to the slowly-moving & weakening cold front. The sfc cyclone's strengthening would be induced by a deepening upper- deck trof that'll undergo modest cyclogenesis over primarily AZ on Wed. However, the sfc cyclone would remain well west of the CWA as the cut-off low would enable the mid-upper ridge extending from strong high pressure centered over the TX Gulf Coast to Alberta & Saskatchewan to greatly amplify. Fri-Sun: With the afore-mentioned high-amplitude ridge covering the Great Plains dry weather would continue for most of the upcoming weekend.
Remaining warmer than normal through the end of the week with lighter winds. A little cooler over the weekend. Temperatures running a few to several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as high pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific.
Upper low over the Great Basin will lift northeast tonight, and should in the process spread showers northeast across much of the cwa along and east of the Missouri River valley. It should start to slowly clear off on Tuesday from southwest to northeast across the cwa, as the upper low tracks away from the region.
518 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. A warmer start to the day combined with clearing with the exit of the weak upper jet streak will likely yield a day much like yesterday. Similar 850 mb temperatures, but a bit lower H5 heights should be largely offset by a far warmer start.
Ridging remains in place at the surface and aloft, resulting in plentiful sunshine and light winds. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Cloud cover will increase on Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front. Over the next couple of days, the upper ridge is forecast to persist over the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. This will force the low pressure system well to our north into Canada, with the surface cold front gradually washing out underneath upper ridging as it moves through Wednesday. The GFS/GEFS are the highest in terms of QPF, with the ensemble mean still only up to around a tenth of an inch along and north of the Ohio River. Highs should still reach the mid/upper 80s prior to the arrival of cooler air.
309 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure over the Great Basin will bring offshore flow through Wednesday with sunny, warm days and cool nights.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Eastern U. and a trough is over the Western U. Northerly flow will continue with drier air in the lower levels.
In fact, they will likely be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the all-time records.
Dry and mild weather through Wednesday as an upper ridge builds into the Pacific NW. Cloud cover this morning will erode through the day as a drier airmass develops under the strengthening ridge.
MSAS shows the low level convergence zone forming along the coast. The low level convergence will be maximized over the area when the sea breeze boundary moves into region late afternoon and evening. Hard to determine timing of vorticity maxima in the south- southwest flow aloft between the upper ridge axis extending into the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper low moving into the desert southwest.
upper low begins to lift northward tonight, moisture and vertical motion start to increase, and would expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually spread from sw to ne across the area, with highest pops over the San Juans and srn Sangres.
A cold front comes through the area early tonight with only scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
330 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures again today. A cold front will push through the region on Wednesday, leading to the possibility of a few showers. A much cooler airmass will then settle into the region through the end of the week. Skies are mostly clear across the area this morning and expect this to continue through much of the day as the mid level ridge remains in place across the region.
Early this morning, a cold front extended from just east of OKC to near Wichita Falls and into the low rolling Plains of west Texas. A cluster of convection has been progressing east- northeast across Lubbock's area tonight, near the front and along the low-level theta-e gradient. Models suggest upper ridge amplification and strengthening of the upper level jet just to our northwest. Evidence of Pacific energy moving south through California is seen now in water vapor imagery, and this will will carve out a closed low today in the Southwest.
High pressure continues to cover most of the eastern U. On Wednesday, a cold front will move through the region. By Wednesday evening, the cold front will be moving into north Mississippi but it appears that few if any thunderstorms are expected to develop.
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 A narrow ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Appalachians through Wed, while Hurricane Maria tracks northward, offshore the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a dry cold front will approach from the northwest, then cross NC late Thu and Thu night. Until that time, however, the MSL pressure gradient between Maria and the (weakening) ridge will result in both the continued wwd expansion of a low overcast this morning, and the development of breezy conditions with diurnal heating over the ern half of the forecast area (from the ern Piedmont and Sandhills to the Coastal Plain). The low level flow will consequently back to a (drier) nwly to nnwly direction and result in partly to mostly sunny conditions on Wed.
However reinforcing push of moisture advection ahead of approaching cold front should trigger more scattered showers and a few t-storms later this morning and afternoon across southern WI. Prefer GFS solution with location of frontal boundary at 12Z, however all short term guidance carry weak low pressure over the tri-state area northeast across northern WI this morning and into southern Canada by this evening. This track will carry a cold front across southern WI today, exiting the far southeast early this evening. High A much cooler airmass will be in place. The cooler air brought in by northwest winds. High pressure will be ridging into the area.
600 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Another hot day expected today especially from IL river se, with near record highs in the lower 90s from I-55 east where more sunshine possible today. A cold front over central WI and se IA will move se over the IL river valley late this afternoon, and thru rest of CWA during tonight. The cold front is forecast to be near the Ohio river by dawn Wed and track se across KY/TN during Wed. Highs Wed range from lower 70s nw of the IL river, to the mid 80s by Lawrenceville, where the cooler air lags behind the front over southeast IL on Wed.
In the big picture, a strong upper low is rotating in the upper Midwest moves off to the northeast. A new closed low is expected to develop in the Desert Southwest. Therefore, as the current cold front continues to slide to the southeast this afternoon and evening. An upper high pressure system begins to take over the weather pattern on Wednesday and bring about drier conditions with temps much cooler than the past week.
/issued 833 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ Maria continues to lift north well to the east of the state weakening the ridging that was in place across the area. Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 70s.
315 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 One more day with high temperatures topping out at 90 degrees, as the trend of the cold front looks to be a bit slower. With the surface cold front looking to come through Wednesday morning, should allow Detroit to hit 80 degrees on Wednesday before the deeper cool air can become established.
439 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 (Today and Tonight) Southwest flow aloft will persist across the area through tonight in advance of a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a weak cold front is currently situated from near Wichita Falls southwest to near Lubbock.
433 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Today, some changes are expected as the jet stream rounds the base of the trough that has remained to our west over the last few days. As the jet drops down, it'll form a closed low over southeastern NV, northeastern AZ and southeastern CA. As the low continues to move to the northeast, heavier precipitation will start moving northward also.
The low level convergence will increase over the area with approach of the sea breeze boundary and expect increase in coverage of convection again into the evening hours. Continuous synoptic ascent is expected through Tuesday morning across this area aided by a longwave trough axis anchored across the intermountain west and northwest Mexico.
318 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will weaken today and tonight. This will allow a cold front to move through the area Wednesday spreading a cooler, more seasonable air mass across the area. The strong upper ridge over the region will weaken tonight into Wednesday as will the associated surface system. This will allow a cold front across the nations midsection to move east across the region Wednesday.
601 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures again today. A cold front will push through the region on Wednesday, leading to the possibility of a few showers. A much cooler airmass will then settle into the region through the end of the week. Skies are mostly clear across the area this morning and expect this to continue through much of the day as the mid level ridge remains in place across the region.
123 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. Upper ridging on the nrn side of Hurricane Maria will maintain broad subsidence over the region, leading to dry mid levels even as cirrus has started to markedly increase.
Gusty east winds are possible near the ridge lines again tonight. A ridge of high pressure along the west coast is gradually getting stronger leading to a slow warming trend.
and Wednesday Although the precise location was hard to discern, a cold front appeared to bisect the forecast area from central WI into northeast WI early this morning. Radar indicated scattered showers along and behind the cold front, though much more widespread rain was occurring over the eastern Dakotas, MN and western IA, closer to dynamic support from a large upper trof and the RRQ of a strong upper jet.
Aloft, ridging is centered in the vicinity of the Arkansas/Oklahoma and Texas/Louisiana border, impeding the surface boundary's progress. Over the next 24 hours, the ridge will broaden out and flatten a bit, which will allow the front to pick up momentum and move into Arkansas. The cooler air will lag the front. At any rate, once the cooler air begins to move in on Wednesday afternoon, temperatures may actually fall a few degrees in the afternoon over northern Arkansas.
305 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. A warmer start to the day combined with clearing with the exit of the weak upper jet streak will likely yield a day much like yesterday. Similar 850 mb temperatures, but a bit lower H5 heights should be largely offset by a far warmer start.
313 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure in control today.
429 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 (Today and Tonight) A deep upper trough currently extends across the Rockies early this morning, with an embedded closed low situated over Wyoming. This low is progged to break away from the main upper trough and lift northeast into the northern Plains by early Tuesday morning, while energy on the back side of the trough closes off a second low over the Great Basin on Tuesday. In the low levels, southeast flow is transporting rich Gulf Moisture across the area. Regional radar imagery shows convection developing across the low rolling Plains and the Permian Basin early this morning. Abundant cloud cover today will result in cloudy skies and cooler temperatures, with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
As of 20z a cold front remains nearly stationary in western Iowa. Weak theta-e advection over the low-level baroclinic zone in eastern NE/western IA has supported scattered to widespread shower activity for much of the day. This will give the sluggish cold front a decent isallobaric shove eastward through the state. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and much more in line with seasonal normals.
This will occur as the next iteration of a closed low takes shape within the western trough across the Desert Southwest. The forming upper low will act to both increase upper level divergence downstream over New Mexico and West Texas while also drawing the plume of eastern Pacific moisture (partially from the remnants of Pilar) up and over the frontal zone.
212 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough over the Northern Plains, with a weaker trough over the Desert Southwest. A corridor of higher moisture continues over the Plains between the troughs over the west half and the ridge over the eastern CONUS. The drizzle should end before sunrise as subsidence from the base of the trough from the Northern Plains moves over the forecast area. As the deepening upper level short wave trough over the Four Corners Region slides northeast it will send out a few smaller scale short wave troughs ahead of it over the forecast area. The short wave troughs fill fairly quickly once they move east of the Colorado border as they are moving into the ridge over the southeast CONUS.
Cold front in nrn Lea Co is slowly moving s arriving HOB around 09Z and INVOF I-20 15Z- 18Z.
A few days of pleasant mild weather ahead as high pressure gains the upper hand over our region. After some morning fog in the eastern zones, there is just a slight chance of some convective activity over the high country today thanks to a period of unstable NW flow. More sun expected Wednesday as ridging increases.
Main upper trough aloft is forecast to move into the Dakotas after midnight with westerly flow aloft over our counties. Will carry low POPS for showers this evening with some instability and cooler temperatures aloft. May see some increasing clouds in advance of the approaching upper trough near the Four Corners. Cloud cover continues to slowly increase across our southern counties in advance of the approaching upper trough near the Four Corners, which may help to limit the warming trend over southern counties. Further north, over our northern counties, temperatures will be warmer than Tuesday, as the airmass continues to moderate.
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Weak high pressure at the surface from the Great Lakes to Louisiana.
Stratus looks to remain a bit more persistent, but continued subsident flow and deeper drying should aid in breaking up the low clouds from southwest to northeast through the afternoon. The broad upper trough which has plagued us through this past weekend slides eastward through the Great Lakes mid-late week, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS.
337 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Another hot day expected today especially from IL river se, with near record highs in the lower 90s from I-55 east where more sunshine possible today. A cold front over central WI and se IA will move se over the IL river valley late this afternoon, and thru rest of CWA during tonight. The cold front is forecast to be near the Ohio river by dawn Wed and track se across KY/TN during Wed. Highs Wed range from lower 70s nw of the IL river, to the mid 80s by Lawrenceville, where the cooler air lags behind the front over southeast IL on Wed.
306 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Warm and humid conditions will persist today ahead of an approaching cold front. Models indicate the cold front will move across the PAH forecast tonight and will be located east of our region by 12z Wednesday. The cooler, drier air will lag well behind the front, so highs on Wednesday will still reach the 80s. High pressure will be building southward out of Canada, and we will get to enjoy near seasonal conditions.
A large area of upper level low pressure over central Wyoming will drift slowly east tonight while a new low pressure area emerges over the southwest United States. Additionally, the San Luis Valley along with many of the mountain areas will see temperatures at or below freezing again tonight. Tonight won't be quite as cold but it will still be at or below freezing in a lot of the high country.
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Not much has changed across the area over the last day, with high pressure and an upper level ridge still placed just to our NE and in control of the weather across eastern Kentucky. Light winds and high pressure still in control will make conditions in the valleys conducive to fog development once again tonight. As we head into Wednesday, a weakening cold front will begin approaching from our NW. While a closed low seems to become cut off over the southwest and Hurricane Maria just off NC coast, ridging largely remains over the the mid and lower MS Valley as well as into the TN Valley. The northern stream at this point remains unable to push a feature through the lower OH Valley that will bring a significant rainfall at this point.
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 A cold front draped across our CWA will be the main story over the next 24 hours. The boundary is expected to usher in a cooler airmass with today being the coolest of the days with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s due to added stratus clouds behind the front lasting most of the day. This cooler airmass will keep our high temperatures in the lower 70s and our lows in the lower 50s through the weekend, making it one of the nicest weekends of the year.