Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Mild temperatures with highs into the lower to mid 40s are expected Saturday, but a cold front will bring a chance of light rain or drizzle through much of the day.
High pressure will build into the state today followed by a weak system impacting mainly northern Utah Saturday.
251 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Tranquil and dry conditions are expected through Saturday as an extensive north/south ridge of high pressure builds east and over the state.
Due to the SW flow and cloud cover, overnight lows tonight will range in the low 40s to low 50s.
With temperatures rising above freezing now in most locations, will let special weather statement addressing potential of patchy freezing fog expire at 10 AM CST.
Nevertheless thermal profiles suggest mainly snow nw and rain se where relatively warm boundary layer temps will be found within low level thermal ridge. Primary feature of interest is with secondary clipper disturbance digging through base of upper trough Mon with period of decent isentropic upglide inferred within band of mid level fgen. Thereafter brief ridging sfc and aloft follows Tue-Wed with mild/dry wx ahead of first true arctic cold front blast Wed night which lingers through Christmas if not longer. Low pressure moving out of the central plains will track northeast into the northern great lakes by Saturday morning. Trailing cold front will bring MVFR then IFR ceilings to KSBN but will not arrive at KFWA until just after this TAF cycle.
The cold front is still expected to move through the area overnight, and winds have already turned northwest in Harper County (per the 20Z Mesonet ob). Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s (NW OK) to the low 40s (SE OK). With some dynamic lift from the approaching mid-level trough and isentropic upglide, light rain showers are possible overnight into Saturday morning for areas south/east of I-44. Given the low-level saturation and prog'd visibility reductions over SE OK early Saturday morning, opted to also add light drizzle.
207 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Cold front currently moving east and south across the eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas Panhandles into the northwest Texas Panhandle will continue moving through the remainder of the forecast area into early evening. A positively-tilted upper trough across the central Plains states into the southwestern states and southern Rockies will move across the Panhandles through tonight into early Saturday. Models are trending much drier with the upper trough and have backed off considerably on any precip chances tonight confining precip mainly to the higher terrain and mountains of Colorado and New Mexico.
1230 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will build into the area today drying out the region and providing decreasing clouds.
As high pressure continues to scoot eastward this afternoon southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture and warmer temperatures into the region. Saturday high temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for most locations with overnight lows dropping back into the low 50s for the Lower Valley and 40s farther north.
229 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 The cold front has pushed well southeast of the area this afternoon.
212 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region through Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
310 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 The upper-level ridge axis over the Southeast today will continue shifting eastward through the evening and overnight hours, with low- /mid-level high pressure remaining in place. Mid- and upper-level flow will become southwesterly on Saturday as an upper-level trough traverses the Mississippi Valley.
1237 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today and Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
With temperatures rising above freezing now in most locations, will let special weather statement addressing potential of patchy freezing fog expire at 10 AM CST. Patchy freezing fog may impact terminals briefly before 15Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail under dry high pressure.
Cooler today but still not bad for December. TFJ Cold front moving through the region early this morning has brought some mid and low level clouds to portions of northeast Montana, but as the radar reflectivity shows, this is mainly a dry cold front.
940 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Increased temperatures towards CONSSHORT, especially across northern Oklahoma, as it is warmer than previously forecast. Thompson (Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to move into the Rockies and impact the region Friday night tonight. Lee-side cyclogenesis in the lower levels in response to the trough will tighten pressure/height gradients, and will result in gusty conditions throughout the day Friday ahead of the cold front. The continuing presence of snowpack in northern Oklahoma will result in cooler high temperatures. The cold front begins to move through the area Friday night into Saturday. These showers will continue through the overnight hours and shift eastward with the upper level trough and cold front passage.
1005 AM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 Upper trough axis is crossing the Rockies. Satellite shows a distinct line of clearing just ahead of the trough axis at high levels, but low clouds linger across the region. Rain/snow continues across the CWA, gradually shifting southward with the low- level trough and band of frontogenesis. As cold high pressure sinks into the Dakotas today, northwesterly winds will become breezy.
302 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Cold and dry high pressure will move over the region through Saturday.
1151 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to move into the Rockies and impact the region Friday night tonight. Lee-side cyclogenesis in the lower levels in response to the trough will tighten pressure/height gradients, and will result in gusty conditions throughout the day Friday ahead of the cold front. The continuing presence of snowpack in northern Oklahoma will result in cooler high temperatures. The cold front begins to move through the area Friday night into Saturday. These showers will continue through the overnight hours and shift eastward with the upper level trough and cold front passage.
High pressure over the Tennessee Valley wil migrate to the Appalachians this afternoon with winds beginning to turn a little more northeasterly. Bay temperatures were running 69-72F this morning, supportive of the current forecast although some locations could be on the low side of 70F. Otherwise, continuing from synopsis, winds will turn northeasterly as high pressure moves from the Tennessee Valley to off the U.
These clouds are associated with a ridge axis passing through the region. Along with an increasing southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front, we should see warmer temperatures for lows, some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning's chilly start.
152 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 A warm, breezy day is underway across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as a positively tilted midlevel trough and associated jet max swing across the region. There also remains potential for high winds to materialize across the Guadalupe Mountains through early this evening, thus the High Wind Warning there remains in effect. A change is on the way tonight however, as a trailing cold front associated with the aforementioned trough progresses through the area. Breezy northwesterly winds will accompany the front, and while the front is not remarkably strong, it will still result in cooler, near normal temperatures on Saturday in the middle 50s north to upper 60s/around 70 degrees through the Rio Grande Valley.
The ridge axis (surface and aloft) that has moved east across the region over the past couple of days will be east of the area by the end of the day on Saturday. Tonight will be a slightly more mild than last night, with lows ranging from around 30 degrees north of the Highway 84 corridor with lower 30s south of there down to the I-10 corridor. Warmer high temperatures expected on Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s over most inland areas and low to mid 60s down near and along the immediate coast. Generally a light northeast wind flow across most of the region tonight, becoming more easterly during the day on Saturday as high pressure that has been over the area shifts east and another storm system begins to develop well to the west of our area.
1042 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance High pressure stretching from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf Coast will shift farther east today toward the East Coast.
On Saturday moderation will continue under a good deal of sunshine with highs 5-7 degrees warmer than today.
VFR is likely to prevail with patchy freezing fog in some of the river valleys.
1125 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move toward the area today from the western U. As this trough approaches, surface pressure falls in the plains ahead of the low will allow for a tighter surface pressure gradient across west central Texas, and gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph today. Tonight, as the upper level trough moves east through the central and southern plains, a cold front will sweep southeast through our area.
The increased cloud cover will also help keep temperatures down a little this afternoon, and therefore lowered the highs a couple of degrees across the area particularly north of I-40. Gusty southerly winds return along within increasing high cloud cover today ahead of a cold front forecast to push into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight. increasing mid level clouds are forecast to become MVFR ceilings over the CWA as the cold front approaches from the west. The approaching system will induce pressure falls to our west, tightening the gradient across the region with high pressure to the east. Moisture return ahead of the upper system and associated cold front tonight into Saturday will bring rain/shower chances.
The cold front is still expected to move through the area overnight, and winds have already turned northwest in Harper County (per the 20Z Mesonet ob). Overnight lows will range rom the upper 20s (NW OK) to the low 40s (SE OK). With some dynamic lift from the approaching mid-level trough and isentropic upglide, light rain showers are possible overnight into Saturday morning for areas south/east of I-44. Given the low-level saturation and prog'd visibility reductions over SE OK early Saturday morning, opted to also add light drizzle.
240 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Positively tilted upper level trough continues to approach the region this afternoon. The axis of this trough should push to about a STL to DFW to LRD line by Saturday evening. Cold front continues to be expected into the CWFA around dinner time this evening and pushing into the Permian Basin by midnight.
136 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Widespread high cloudiness has thickened up today, keeping temps from getting out of the lower 40s as of 19z. This cloudiness is streaming northeast ahead of a sharp 500 mb trough over the southern Rockies. The upper-level trough will swing eastward and then east-northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday evening. In the wake of the system, clearing is expected late Sat night over parts of southern IL and southeast MO, where lows could fall below freezing.
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Upper level low pressure trough axis and surface cold front will be moving east of our region through the afternoon. Behind the cold front, caa northwest winds have increased along with a slight fall in temperatures. A cold front will continue to move through the Dakotas this morning. Rising heights Saturday morning will quickly give way to another trough by afternoon as another front moves through. The period begins Saturday night with an area of low pressure and upper level trough crossing the region.
It was a blustery but overall pleasant afternoon across eastern Kansas with wind gusts topping out at 40 to 50+ mph ahead of an approaching surface cold front. The pressure gradient has been gradually relaxing ahead of the trough with winds steadily decreasing from west to east during the afternoon. The lack of moisture in the low levels will keep the passage of the front dry. Highs tomorrow should top out in the low to mid 40s under northwesterly flow.
High pressure is forecast to maintain a relatively dry pattern into the Sierra and western NV with the main storm track into Washington and Oregon through the weekend.
Scattered snow showers will continue on the terrain into this evening, otherwise the next weather maker of interest arrives early Saturday morning in the form of a cold front.
Moisture left behind in the soil and the lower levels of the atmosphere has produced an episode of fog and lingering stratus down the middle of the San Joaquin Valley, with some low clouds also piled up in the south end of the Valley. Afternoon temperatures are seasonable across the area, a little cooler where the fog and low clouds has lingered.
A combination of warm air advection, a pronounced mid level trough, and somewhat steep mid level lapse rates are likely to result in an inch or two of accumulation, most falling during the overnight, but probably enough to cause at least scattered Mon morning drive impacts. As low pressure rebuilds to the west southerly winds will increase during the day Saturday gusting 15-25 kt at most terminals and higher gusts to 30 kt can't be ruled out in northeast ND (mainly KDVL).
611 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Cold and dry high pressure will move over the region through Saturday.
Clouds will progressively blanket the area ahead of a cold front approaching out of the west.
620 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Cold and dry high pressure will move over the region through Saturday.
/Issued 310 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020/ The upper-level ridge axis over the Southeast today will continue shifting eastward through the evening and overnight hours, with low- /mid-level high pressure remaining in place. Mid- and upper-level flow will become southwesterly on Saturday as an upper-level trough traverses the Mississippi Valley.
A weak mid level trough will make its way eastward through the overnight hours, causing some increasing clouds overnight tonight.
349 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 The current ridge aloft is making for warmer than normal temperatures across the Mid-South today. This ridge slides to the east of the area tonight ushering in a trough thats currently over the southern Rockies. This will bring rain for Saturday with the passage of a cold front.
316 PM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating increasing northwest flow aloft across the region, as an elongated trough across eastern Colorado this afternoon continues to translate east. Regional radars are indicating a few waning echoes over and near the higher terrain, along with a few echoes associated with the passing trough across the southeast plains at this time. Mixing associated with the system's passing cold front has helped to boost temperatures into the 30s and 40s across the plains this afternoon, with temperatures mainly 20s and 30s across the higher terrain at this time.
556 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Mild temperatures with highs into the lower to mid 40s are expected Saturday, but a cold front will bring a chance of light rain or drizzle through much of the day.
549 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move toward the area today from the western U. As this trough approaches, surface pressure falls in the plains ahead of the low will allow for a tighter surface pressure gradient across west central Texas, and gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph today. Tonight, as the upper level trough moves east through the central and southern plains, a cold front will sweep southeast through our area.
Nevertheless thermal profiles suggest mainly snow nw and rain se where relatively warm boundary layer temps will be found within low level thermal ridge. Primary feature of interest is with secondary clipper disturbance digging through base of upper trough Mon with period of decent isentropic upglide inferred within band of mid level fgen. Thereafter brief ridging sfc and aloft follows Tue-Wed with mild/dry wx ahead of first true arctic cold front blast Wed night which lingers through Christmas if not longer. An approaching upper trough will help to bring a 40-45kt LLJ over the terminals overnight which will likely result in a period of LLWS at both terminals since surface winds are expected to remain around 10kt. This same upper trough will bring chance for a wintry mix of precip to both terminals.
A weak cold front will pass through the region later this evening, with breezy north winds expected on the Caprock at around 15 knots. /issued 240 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Positively tilted upper level trough continues to approach the region this afternoon. The axis of this trough should push to about a STL to DFW to LRD line by Saturday evening. Cold front continues to be expected into the CWFA around dinner time this evening and pushing into the Permian Basin by midnight.
700 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 For the 19/00Z TAF period, flight conditions will be rapidly deteriorating through this TAF period as low cigs gradually spread eastward ahead of an advancing upper level trough and cold front. Due to the SW flow and cloud cover, overnight lows tonight will range in the low 40s to low 50s.
753 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Tranquil and dry conditions are expected through Saturday as an extensive north/south ridge of high pressure builds east and over the state.
A warm front should lift back through the area and bring those temperatures back up.
305 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure is draped over the SE CONUS this afternoon, with lgt/var winds across the HUN CWFA. A trough over the 4 Corners region of the SW CONUS will continue advancing E tonight, but it is looking rather moisture-starved on water vapor imagery. Moisture will gradually filter into the area ahead of the approaching trough Saturday, culminating in rain chances developing by late afternoon.
312 PM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 A dry weather disturbance exiting the region today will keep temperatures near normal while breezy northerly winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley continue through the afternoon.
Satellite imagery continues to show high clouds stream in across the CWA overnight associated with a passing upper level ridge. Temperatures this evening have ranged from the low 30s/upper 20s east of I-65 to in the low/mid 30s to the west where we find the thicker layer of high clouds. These clouds are associated with a ridge axis passing through the region. Along with an increasing southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front, we should see warmer temperatures for lows, some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning's chilly start.
Northerly winds are in place at all sites following the passage of a cold front earlier Friday afternoon. /Issued 207 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Cold front currently moving east and south across the eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas Panhandles into the northwest Texas Panhandle will continue moving through the remainder of the forecast area into early evening. A positively-tilted upper trough across the central Plains states into the southwestern states and southern Rockies will move across the Panhandles through tonight into early Saturday. Models are trending much drier with the upper trough and have backed off considerably on any precip chances tonight confining precip mainly to the higher terrain and mountains of Colorado and New Mexico.
A dry weather disturbance exiting the region today will keep temperatures near normal while breezy northerly winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley continue through the afternoon.
High pressure will persist over the region with mostly dry conditions prevailing before a series of weather systems move through the region this weekend.
650 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region through Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
Still looks like surface ridging will break down late tonight, and a upper trough will move into the MS river valley by Saturday evening. Numerous showers expected as upper trough passes. Still not expecting any type of frontal passage in the lower levels, so do not anticipate any significant airmass change.
/issued 349 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ The current ridge aloft is making for warmer than normal temperatures across the Mid-South today. This ridge slides to the east of the area tonight ushering in a trough thats currently over the southern Rockies. This will bring rain for Saturday with the passage of a cold front.
503 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Widespread high cloudiness has thickened up today, keeping temps from getting out of the lower 40s as of 19z. This cloudiness is streaming northeast ahead of a sharp 500 mb trough over the southern Rockies. The upper-level trough will swing eastward and then east-northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday evening. In the wake of the system, clearing is expected late Sat night over parts of southern IL and southeast MO, where lows could fall below freezing.
A quiet and chilly evening has arrived for our Friday night with much of the area falling back into the low to mid 30s.
831 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region through Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
528 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Well phased northern and southern stream positive tilt upper trofs will move eastward across the central CONUS tonight. The associated weak cold front will likewise progress southeastward with little fanfare from central across southeast Kansas.
The cold front has pushed well southeast of the area this afternoon.
After this time, it appears as though increasing low level moisture confined to the lowest 2k feet will help to usher in some lower clouds.
High pressure will bring some patchy morning fog and cold temperatures through the weekend.
Clouds streaming in from the southwest should help to keep most of the Midsouth above freezing tonight. /issued 552 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ The current ridge aloft is making for warmer than normal temperatures across the Mid-South today. This ridge slides to the east of the area tonight ushering in a trough thats currently over the southern Rockies. This will bring rain for Saturday with the passage of a cold front.
Clear skies with a few, short-lived fair weather clouds stretch across South Florida today as building high pressure and northerly to northeasterly winds continue to filter in drier and cooler air. Pleasant and dry weather prevail again on Saturday as high pressure continues to snuggle into the region as the axis slides eastward over the southeastern CONUS.
A combination of warm air advection, a pronounced mid level trough, and somewhat steep mid level lapse rates are likely to result in an inch or two of accumulation, most falling during the overnight, but probably enough to cause at least scattered Mon morning drive impacts.
Forecast time-height sections indicate the MVFR or lower ceilings developing closer to the arrival of the shower activity in the morning, with widespread precip/low ceilings by the afternoon hours in advance of the approaching cold front. Clouds will progressively blanket the area ahead of a cold front approaching out of the west.
This will draw warmer air back into the region on Saturday with most of it staying above the inversion. Thus, expect warmer overnight lows mainly in the 20s for Saturday night.
332 PM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will persist over the region with mostly dry conditions prevailing before a series of weather systems move through the region this weekend.
This will draw warmer air back into the region on Saturday, with most of it staying above the inversion. Thus, expect warmer overnight lows mainly in the 20s for Saturday night.
Some high clouds move through the area Saturday afternoon but not enough to impact the high temperature forecast.
Saturday will be a good ten degrees cooler across the area, but winds will be fairly light so it should still feel pretty mild for the latter half of December.