Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
351 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Overall pattern is still rather active with a broad trough across the center and western portions of the country today. The upper trough axis will likely not pass east of our area until late Friday night, which should then give us a dry and warmer weekend. However, can not rule out a few marginally severe thunderstorms with the upper trough in the region Friday evening.
258 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 An upper level short wave trough was moving across the Ozarks early this morning within the broader upper level trough across the plains and southwesterly flow over the area. In the vicinity of this low, which looks to move over the West Plains area, low level jet winds of 50-55 kts are expected, Additionally, the nose of the 700 and 500MB jets will edge into southcentral Missouri. The limiting factor may be the low instability expected. Cooler air will move in behind the system with overnight lows in the lower 40s to upper 30s.
Notably a wind shift will accompany the passage of the low as a cold frnt moves in from the W, w/ winds of 15-20 kts and wind gusts of 25+ kts Thurs afternoon.
Severe threat will gradually diminish after 4AM as the cold front undercuts convection and storms work into higher region of convective inhibition.
There's a bit more on the plains south of I-70 than we expected, on the edge of the lift associated with the upper low centered over the OK/TX panhandles. Low level warming and sunshine through at least the early part of the day will help the plains temperatures rise about 10 degrees warmer than today. A broad disorganized trough will be over the Central Rockies Thursday night and Friday. There ends up being three waves embedded in this trough, which makes the little details still unclear. The cold air aloft associated with the trough will destabilize the airmass with snow showers mainly over the mountains Thursday night and Friday morning. A few of these showers may progress onto the lower elevations. The best chance for rain/snow along Front Range will be Friday afternoon when upslope behind a cold front prevails.
404 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The weather conditions across the Florida Keys remain quite dry thanks to a large area of high pressure over the North Atlantic. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s and the dew point values are in the low to mid 70s. The large high pressure system over the North Atlantic is expected to flatten into an elongated ridge during the weekend, keeping the island chain under an east to southeast wind flow.
A low pressure system will bring more rain tonight into Friday, followed by gusty winds.
An upper low will pass to the southeast of the area, bringing precipitation potential to southeast Nebraska, but will leave the CWA dry. Cloud cover will begin to spread west to east across the area overnight as a trough of low pressure moves off of the Rocky Mountains. At 700 mb, there appears to be convergence over the Nebraska Panhandle as a low moves over the Colorado/Nebraska state line while higher pressure exists over Wyoming, and frontogenesis begins to develop a cold front that extends across the northern Sandhills later in the day.
The warm front will continue to move northward setting the stage for a high impact weather day for the area. High pressure builds into the area.
/issued 259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Upper lvl trough which brought precipitation to portions of the region will move out by the late morning hours. Friday will be warm as a result of a strong low lvl thermal ridge that will build over the area with excellent insolation.
Northwest flow will keep shower activity going in the mountainous terrain across the region with little impact, though conditions will remain cloudy and somewhat gray and dreary just about everywhere until high pressure moves in for the weekend.
427 AM PDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A low pressure system from the north will bring much cooler weather today with strong and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts through this evening, decreasing from north to south overnight.
550 AM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure over the Upper Midwest continued to push east towards the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with an intensifying low digging southeast into Montana. Unsettled pattern continues with a broad upper level trough still expected to push east across the CWA. Abundant moisture with this system, and increasing QC lift, will enhance the precipitation and move from west to east as the trough continues its track towards the Midwest. Latest model guidance keeps most of the snow totals in the higher terrains, such as the Snowy Range and Sierra Madres, with the peaks getting upward to around 5 to 7 inches. Upper level trough is expected to continue its trek to the east, with a ridge of high pressure building across the CWA this weekend.
in the lower-mid 50s. on the eastern periphery of a developing lee cyclone in Colorado. Fri-Fri night: The aforementioned lee cyclone is progged to slowly shift eastward into extreme western KS on Friday. perhaps in assoc/w small amplitude perturbations ejecting NNE-NE along the eastern periphery of the upper trough. presumably in assoc/w low-level convergence invof the lee cyclone and/or DPVA attendant small amplitude perturbations in SW flow aloft. warm advection) -- and more widespread precipitation -- will largely be relegated to the northern and eastern periphery of the lee cyclone.
The cold front has pushed through South Central Texas. Severe threat will gradually diminish after 4AM as the cold front undercuts convection and storms work into higher region of convective inhibition.
Though some of the higher gusts could be hampered by extensive cloud cover inhibiting vertical mixing, we are still expecting some gusts in the 40+ mph range for much of Yavapai County, Coconino County south of the Grand Canyon, and southern Navajo County. Wind chills won't get out of the 20s for parts of the high country. The chance of rain and snow increases by late afternoon, with the best chances tonight through sunrise Friday favoring the higher elevations along/north of a line from Flagstaff to Window Rock. During the day Friday - the main trough will cross the region from northwest to southeast.
357 AM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Some snow has occurred in the western mountains overnight with the most accumulation at the higher elevations. Forecast issue today through Friday will be this trough of low pressure which moves into the region this afternoon and lingers through Friday, departing Friday night. What snow falls at the lower elevations will melt later this morning through late day due to the solar radiation at this time of year. Then minor snow accumulations may occur at the lower elevations after sunset as the temperatures cool. A weak cold front also moves through tonight bring a north to northeast wind and creating areas of upslope flow in central WY. Lows tonight will be in the 20s to around 30 with some teens in the west and in the higher mountains.
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 413 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Much of the clouds have moved out early this morning as the low continues to pull away from the region. A ridge of high pressure will become established over the area today and winds will become east to southeast, mostly at or less than 10 mph, with the exception of far western portions of Minnesota.
A dry cold front, currently extending from Baffin Bay to near MFE, should move off the lower Texas coast by 13Z. /issued 444 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A dry cold front will surge through deep south Texas this morning. The passage of this dry cold front will allow very low relative humidity values and breezy to windy conditions to develop in the wake of the front. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s across much of the CWA with 60s along the coast. Warm to very warm conditions are expected on Friday with highs ranging from the 70s along the beaches, mid to upper 80s inland and the low to mid 90s across the west under mostly sunny skies.
650 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 An upper level short wave trough was moving across the Ozarks early this morning within the broader upper level trough across the plains and southwesterly flow over the area. In the vicinity of this low, which looks to move over the West Plains area, low level jet winds of 50-55 kts are expected, Additionally, the nose of the 700 and 500MB jets will edge into southcentral Missouri. The limiting factor may be the low instability expected. Cooler air will move in behind the system with overnight lows in the lower 40s to upper 30s.
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ Most of the thunderstorms had exited the region as of 5 AM except for a few isolated storms across Central Texas, closer to the cold front.
Expect winds ahead and behind the low around 12-15 kts with gusts of 25 kts. Skies will clear out quickly this evening and into tonight allowing for temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s.
737 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Developing low pressure will bring showers, thunderstorms, and strong wind for today and into Friday.
416 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Another round of rain and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area this morning before ending from southwest to northeast this afternoon as the upper trough axis shifts east of the area. Gusty south winds will develop Friday, bringing much warmer temperatures but also bringing a marked increase in fire weather danger, especially across northeast Oklahoma which is seeing the least rain from the current system.
Some consolidation is expected by afternoon as the main trough axis starts to tilt negatively.
1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Muggy conditions are being felt across the Florida Keys this morning, with temperatures already near 80 degrees and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
The latest satellite image shows moist northwest flow on the backside of the upper trough.
/issued 432 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ High pressure will be in place at the surface and aloft through the weekend. Temps near the coast will remain cooler in the mid 80s as winds turn to the SW/W each afternoon.
Skies will clear out quickly this evening and into tonight allowing for temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A dry cold front will surge through deep south Texas this morning. The passage of this dry cold front will allow very low relative humidity values and breezy to windy conditions to develop in the wake of the front. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s across much of the CWA with 60s along the coast. Warm to very warm conditions are expected on Friday with highs ranging from the 70s along the beaches, mid to upper 80s inland and the low to mid 90s across the west under mostly sunny skies.
205 AM PDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A cold front will bring breezy winds, and rain and snow showers into this evening. Warmer, spring-like conditions return this weekend.
Overall pattern is still rather active with a broad trough across the center and western portions of the country today. The upper trough axis will likely not pass east of our area until late Friday night, which should then give us a dry and warmer weekend. However, can not rule out a few marginally severe thunderstorms with the upper trough in the region Friday evening.
A ridge of high pressure will then build over the West Coast this weekend with dry and warmer weather along with light winds. This placement of the jet stream and the track of the low moving into the Great Basin will bring two main affects, strong winds through the passes of the east Sierra and Kern County Mountains and desert and to a lesser degree, some light rain and snow to the Sierra Crest. Forecast models are in very good agreement that a ridge of high pressure will build over the West in the wake of today's Great Basin inside slider. This ridge will bring much warmer weather and many locations will realize highs much warmer than normal.
The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west this morning, with enough of a pressure gradient between the two systems to bring breezy conditions to the area today. The boundary associated with the low pressure system will reach the western Dakotas by this evening, then will slowly slide eastward to become situated over the eastern Dakotas by late Friday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s, with highs on Friday again mainly in the 50s.
Cold front swings through the area today bringing gusty NW winds mainly NW of Yellowstone River.
Much of the clouds have moved out early this morning as the low continues to pull away from the region. A ridge of high pressure will become established over the area today and winds will become east to southeast, mostly at or less than 10 mph, with the exception of far western portions of Minnesota.
Some consolidation is expected by afternoon as the main trough axis starts to tilt negatively. The activity will all come to an end across our eastern areas around midnight, shortly after the trough moves through.
A broad disorganized trough will be over the Central Rockies Friday. There ends up being three waves embedded in this trough, which makes the little details still unclear. The cold air aloft associated with the trough will destabilize the airmass with snow showers mainly over the mountains Friday morning. A few of these showers may progress onto the lower elevations. The best chance for rain/snow along Front Range will be Friday afternoon when upslope behind a cold front prevails.
634 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 (Today and tonight) As of 08Z, the upper trough was positioned west of our area, with the axis extending from the western TX panhandle to Chihuahua. As this low pressure system departs the region, mid-level heights rise from SW to NE by end of the day and winds back more west-northwest by this afternoon.
348 AM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure over the Upper Midwest continued to push east towards the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with an intensifying low digging southeast into Montana. Unsettled pattern continues with a broad upper level trough still expected to push east across the CWA. Abundant moisture with this system, and increasing QC lift, will enhance the precipitation and move from west to east as the trough continues its track towards the Midwest. Latest model guidance keeps most of the snow totals in the higher terrains, such as the Snowy Range and Sierra Madres, with the peaks getting upward to around 5 to 7 inches. Upper level trough is expected to continue its trek to the east, with a ridge of high pressure building across the CWA this weekend.
/Issued 416 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Another round of rain and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area this morning before ending from southwest to northeast this afternoon as the upper trough axis shifts east of the area. Gusty south winds will develop Friday, bringing much warmer temperatures but also bringing a marked increase in fire weather danger, especially across northeast Oklahoma which is seeing the least rain from the current system.
Rain and Snow showers continue this morning with passage of the upper level trough.
250 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Today, forecast guidance shows the CWA underneath an upper level ridge with a trough trailing it in the western CONUS. Winds should blow from the south at about 10-15 mph across the CWA with temperatures in the lower 50s that will decrease as the sun goes down. Tonight, models show the western trough making an eastward progress placing the CWA underneath the front part of the trough after midnight. Overnight low temperatures expect to range from the lower to middle 30s. Daytime high temperatures expect to range from the lower 50s to the middle 60s with overnight lows in the lower to upper 30s.
1146 AM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure over the Upper Midwest continued to push east towards the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with an intensifying low digging southeast into Montana. Unsettled pattern continues with a broad upper level trough still expected to push east across the CWA. Abundant moisture with this system, and increasing QC lift, will enhance the precipitation and move from west to east as the trough continues its track towards the Midwest. Latest model guidance keeps most of the snow totals in the higher terrains, such as the Snowy Range and Sierra Madres, with the peaks getting upward to around 5 to 7 inches. Upper level trough is expected to continue its trek to the east, with a ridge of high pressure building across the CWA this weekend.
A cold front moving south from Canada today will produce areas of light snow across North-central Montana today.
As the cold front tracks ewd, conditions will improve with VFR conditions expected not too far behind the frontal passage per forecast soundings/upstream obs. Expect winds ahead and behind the low around 12-15 kts with gusts of 25 kts. Skies will clear out quickly this evening and into tonight allowing for temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s.
The quiet weather conditions will continue into the day tomorrow, but highs will be slightly warmer compared to today.
Over the high risk area storm relative helicity (SRH) values are robust and expect initiation by midday continuing into early evening. The warm front will continue to move northward setting the stage for a high impact weather day for the area. High pressure builds into the area.
1115 AM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Sfc lee trough and increasing southwest winds aloft in advance of an upper trough approaching the Four Corners.
204 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 19z surface analysis had low near the ND/MT/Canadian border with trough into eastern WY.
An upper level short wave trough was moving across the Ozarks early this morning within the broader upper level trough across the plains and southwesterly flow over the area. In the vicinity of this low, which looks to move over the West Plains area, low level jet winds of 50-55 kts are expected, Additionally, the nose of the 700 and 500MB jets will edge into southcentral Missouri. The limiting factor may be the low instability expected. Cooler air will move in behind the system with overnight lows in the lower 40s to upper 30s.
223 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A weak cold front will impact the region Friday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 (Today and tonight) As of 08Z, the upper trough was positioned west of our area, with the axis extending from the western TX panhandle to Chihuahua. As this low pressure system departs the region, mid-level heights rise from SW to NE by end of the day and winds back more west-northwest by this afternoon.
252 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Snow showers are ongoing across the west and will continue this afternoon as the trough slides south. High resolution models show these spreading south and east of the Divide, but little to no accumulation expected today in the lower elevations with the dry airmass in place. Tonight the low will stall over Utah, with the flow across the CWA backing to the northeast. Temperatures will warm well above freezing Friday so road impacts will mainly be limited to the morning. Precipitation will end by Friday night as the trough exits the area.
229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Weak upper level ridging has built over the region this afternoon with dry west-southwesterly winds. Tomorrow morning the upper flow becomes more southwesterly in response to an upper level trough digging into the Four Corners.
411 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure tracking to our north and west will bring showers, a few thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts tonight into Friday. While shallow convection/showers and resultant mixing may cause some gusts as mentioned above, the main wind event wl likely be reserved until the cold front plows acrs the region on Friday morning. Mechanical mixing with that feature along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component wl be the primary threat with this low. Windy conditions wl continue through Friday morning, then ease as the low exits northeastward on Friday aftn.
The models tend to weaken this with time with our focus shifting more to the influence of the low pressure system tracking to our south and southeast. The progs, and the ensembles, have been shifting the emphasis of the higher precipitation amounts further to our southeast. With the tighter pressure gradient evolving overnight the higher north/northeast winds most likely in our eastern and southeastern areas, especially close to Lake Michigan. Should see temps rebound into the 50s with cooler readings lakeside as winds turn onshore.
203 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A cold front crossing the region will continue to bring snow showers through Friday afternoon.
/issued 650 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ For the 25/12Z TAF period, a mixed bag of flight categories are still noted this morning as low clouds continue to stream north ahead of an advancing cold front. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs to take up much of the morning timeframe through early afternoon as the cold front advances eastward across the region with growing convection ahead of the front.
1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Much of the clouds have moved out early this morning as the low continues to pull away from the region. A ridge of high pressure will become established over the area today and winds will become east to southeast, mostly at or less than 10 mph, with the exception of far western portions of Minnesota.
As clouds increase and temps remain above freezing overnight across northeast ND expecting precip to remain all rain with the possibility of a rain snow mix possible Friday morning in NW MN where temps will be a bit cooler. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with increased cloud cover with highs in the 40s for most.
The remaining precipitation is expected to develop as clusters ahead of a broken line attached to the cold front. The higher winds are expected in areas to the northwest of our CWA as this is closer to the low pressure system.
356 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The main forecast challenges to end the week include precipitation chances with an approaching low pressure and a considerable warmup over the latter half of the weekend. Guidance shows broad isentropic upglide ahead of the trough, especially prevalent at 295-300K. However, abundant dry air remains in the lower levels. Mid level fgen increases notably as the northern stream trough digs into Nebraska. Meanwhile, southeast low level winds push dew points into the lower 40s over central Neb. Cooler air quickly fills in behind the low, as shown by H85 temps dropping to 0C by 06z.
Certainly in the colder areas, like around Charleston, the lower temperatures will come to fruition.
1255 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Quick-moving low pressure will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the area today.
Otherwise, no changes needed as high pressure overhead will maintain another quiet and cool day. Some mid level cloud cover will begin to intrude from the SW early MON morning ahead of an approaching upper level trough of low pressure, but lower CIGS and rain will hold off until beyond this current forecast cycle.
/TW/ Sprawling high pressure at the surface from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to be in control of our weather today. 1" on the 12z JAN sounding) supported temperatures in the low 20s to upper teens across much of the area early this morning. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low to mid 50s, which will make for a rather large diurnal temperature swing. After a very chilly start this morning, this afternoons highs are expected to climb into the lower 50s. Tonights lows will be warmer. though still dropping below freezing.
328 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Snow will taper off this evening as low pressure moves east of the ridges. Expect a general 1-2 inches with higher amounts north of Pittsburgh, and in the ridges.
This will allow for good radiational cooling as the high center moves over the state and winds become light. Conditions will then moderate as the high center shifts east.