Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
713 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TODAY.
A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY SOME OF THE MODELS TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE MSL PLOT SHOWED A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE EASTERN PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 06Z. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH 35 TO 40 IN THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT QPF ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S SEEM LIKELY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
936 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. /ISSUED 627 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016/ A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIFTS EAST AND SETTLES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTING COOL/DRY EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE COAST WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INLAND. THINGS DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OREGON DIRECTS THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DRYING AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
CLOUD DECKS BEGIN TO LOWER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THESE RANGES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND AS IT'S WORKED ON BY A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.
643 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT QUICKLY EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING.
MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
648 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST.
If drizzle can form, temperatures will initially remain below freezing, owing to some potential for freezing drizzle.
Thermal trof is already retreating to the east, and the axis of the modifying pressure ridge will extend west across the Ohio Valley this morning, so today will be the coldest day and the moderating trend will begin tonight. If anything the temp forecast leans toward the cooler NAM MOS, especially on Wednesday where the discrepancy is larger.
744 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
947 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO TO FAR WEST TEXAS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE LIMITED FOR LATER TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
However precipitation development will be initially hampered by a dry layer within the lower troposphere that progged soundings continue to indicate. At this time it appears the onset of precipitation could be a mix of light snow, sleet and freezing rain or drizzle. Temperatures will rise above freezing by midday.
/ISSUED 309 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/ COLD MORNING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AS OF 08Z HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. ADD A 4-8 MPH WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST AND IT FEELS EVEN COOLER OUTSIDE.
Given an increase in low level moisture, suspect that the cigs will decrease just enough to remain on the high end of MVFR conditions for most terminals for much of the day.
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND DAY TIME HEATING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT A LITTLE AND THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER. BUT AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF TOWARD MORNING THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TOO. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT IT IS DRY IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF DURING THE NIGHT. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND DAY TIME HEATING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT A LITTLE AND THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER. BUT AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF TOWARD MORNING THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TOO. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT IT IS DRY IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF DURING THE NIGHT.
Southwest flow has kept some mountain locations above freezing most of the night, meanwhile cold air remains trapped in area valleys with many locations in the teens this morning. There is still a slight concern for freezing rain in portions of the Bitterroot valley and along the lower Clark Fork river in central western Montana tonight. However, travelers should stay alert for the possibility of freezing rain in these areas.
WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND HIGHEST ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES SUCH AS COOKE CITY. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEST COAST SHIFTS SOUTH LEAVING A WEAKENED AND BACKING FLOW PATTERN OVER ROCKIES WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS CUTTING OFF DEEPER MOISTURE TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON COAST AND MOVES INTO INTER ROCKIES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. STILL A WARM LAYER OF AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENT IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC LAYERED FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ENEWD OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES. CLOUD COVER THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OUT OF THE S/SE INCREASES. LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE STILL HINTING AT A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING FROM THE MID PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF THU INTO FRI. LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE THEN POINTING TO A THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS ALSO MAY HELP USHER SOME SEASONABLY COOL AIR BACK INTO THE AREA AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF TO THE NORTHEAST US. MSLP IS FALLING IN THE DAKOTAS AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS.
433 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE REGION. THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL DISSIPATE. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
A BIT COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.
539 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSING INTO SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE OBS AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND ACROSS SE OREGON. WILL SEE EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. SNOW LEVELS ARE 3500-4000 FEET DURING THIS EVENT WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AND CLEARING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY.
609 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
941 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.
BREEZY/WINDY AND COLD TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF COASTAL STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE A STRONG BREEZY/WINDY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THROUGH TONIGHT.
627 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIFTS EAST AND SETTLES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTING COOL/DRY EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HAS STARTED TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST. NOT A LOT OF RISING MOTION IN THAT LOWEST LAYER HOWEVER SO WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. STILL NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF OMEGA IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FZDZ AND FLURRY MENTION GOING FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SOME PRECIP OVER THAT AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
907 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.
611 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. DENSE MARINE STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE W ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG N/NERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE RIDGE WILL ADVECT ACRS THE PENINSULA THRU THE DAY. LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SHOWING FULL BLOWN SCA CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE CONUS E OF THE MS RIVER IS GENERATING A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE. NO SIG CHANGE TO THE MRNG FCST PACKAGE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND MAINTAINS A TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE W ATLC THRU MIDWEEK.
946 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CANCELLED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AS TEMPS INCREASE THIS MORNING AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALREADY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUNCHED INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AND THIS HAS CLEARED THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. HI-RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE SITUATION QUITE WELL AND ALL OF THEM CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) It's a pretty chilly morning with high pressure and low dew points still having an influence. High pressure will continue to retreat eastward today with low level winds veering and increasing, promoting decent warm advection.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. POSSIBLY GUSTY OVER FAR W/NW OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS E/NE INTO THE EVENING. AS THE LOW LIFTS E/NE ACROSS KS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS I THINK THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AND HAVE LINGERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND A SMALL AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
930 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND IS SENDING WAVES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE OUR WAY. WHILE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE INHIBITING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE OREGON WEST SIDE THIS MORNING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY BECOMING SATURATED, AND THUS WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
The upper level high pressure ridge will cross east of central IL by afternoon allowing some periods of high clouds to move into the area. despite starting the day a bit cooler. Southerly component already in the winds across the region as the ridge pulls off to the northeast.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS INDICATING RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN. RIDGE AT 850MB EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN TX/EASTERN OK/CENTRAL MO/CENTRAL IA. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
609 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALL MODELS SUGGESTING MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LAYERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENT VORTMAX ARE EXITING THE COAST THIS MORNING. WITH 100M+ HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AND AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAN COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC. THE SLP GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER TO THE EAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH HUGS THE COAST. A CONTINUATION OF FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER FROM THE NEAR TERM ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE CURRENT STORM APPROACHING THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DISTRICT ABOUT MID-DAY. WILL FOLLOW WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE AND EXPECT HEAVY MOUNTAIN PRECIP WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
With the increasing cloud cover, temperatures will be slow to rise today but we should see highs climbing into the lower to middle 40s. Later in the week, a broad trough will dominate the weather picture over much of the CONUS.
640 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS WHETHER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS FROM PRODUCING SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A SHARP MID-LVL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RECORD TEMPERATURES TO AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 DEGREES IN THE LOWER DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND ALONG THE FLOOR OF THE GRAND CANYON. WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WITH PERHAPS STORMS DEVELOPING MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTY.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE RAIN AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ UPPER RIDGING HAS FINALLY YIELDED WITH TROUGHING UNDERWAY IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS.
WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK TROF OVER THE RRV THAT IS PRODUCING A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THINK THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 72 85 63 / 60 70 80 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 71 82 61 / 60 70 80 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 81 62 / 60 80 80 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 70 80 56 / 60 80 80 30.
BUT HAD TO RELY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NMM VERSION OF THE 4KM NAM-WRF TO DEPICT HIGHER TEMPORAL (HOURLY) CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WISCONSIN SHARPENS DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
900 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO PROPEL SOUTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. BOTH OF WHICH WOULD POINT A BIT COOLER TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NV/UT/AZ BORDER AREA IS RESULTING IN RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA. WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST REGION.
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE TAF SITES. /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RICH MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM MODEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
Both the GFS and NAM show low level moisture convergence shifting southeast of the CWA by 00Z with the upper trough shifting east of the CWA by 06Z. Temperatures will be much cooler today behind the front with cloudy skies, cold air advection, and rain.
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ACHIEVING THE LOWER 90S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DOWNSTREAM OF LOWERING CENTRAL PLAINS HEIGHTS. WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AS WESTERN U. RIDGING AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. /ISSUED 436 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE WATERS.
THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SOUTHWEST MIXING WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 1 TO 2 MORE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM I-72 NORTH. 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PENINSULA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK AND BE NEAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY SUNSET.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE TONIGHT.
THEN LIKELY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
THE LATEST NAM RUN SHOWS DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN ALOFT OVER THE RGV AS A BROAD 500 MB CLOSED LOW REMAINS LOCATED OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. MEAN RH VALUES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED.
THERE IS STILL GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT STORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIE ROUGHLY FROM SEMINOLE TO LAWTON TO VERNON AROUND INITIATION TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND BRING A SLOW WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES BY 02Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO STILLWATER LINE FAVORED NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100-105.
AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED SATES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE RESULTING HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THE MORNING WEATHER BALLOON FROM BOISE SHOWING 5-8F DEGREES OF WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
AS THE DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL SUITE FOR POPS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 5 INCHES ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. ALL MODELS SHOW A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE ERODES TO THE NORTHWEST.