Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging continues across the area today but weakening with increasing moisture infiltrating the region. The higher dews still inplace will make for warmer temps overnight and increased moisture. Trough/cold front encroach wl spawn likely POPs later in the week and bring an end to the above-average warmth. Continued upper troughing is likely to spawn showery and cooler weather for the Independence Day weekend. The confidence in thunderstorms is low due to mid- level ridging suppressing deep updrafts.
415 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Upper air analysis depicts that the omega blocking pattern is still in effect across from British Columbia Canada into the Great Basin, and upper troughing over the Great Plains. As the upper level trough begins to transition towards the east, surface upslope winds should aid in the development of fog across the Laramie Range.
632 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Radar and satellite show scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of the region early this morning, out ahead of the longwave trough highlighted nicely by the water vapor channels on GOES-16.
High pressure was situated just southeast of the forecast area early this morning.
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Active weather will continue through this evening as an upper level trough continues to impact the central Plains. This high will keep conditions dry through Tuesday.
The models continue to show mid/upper level trough axis extending from northern Great Plains into northeastern CO. Weak lift/instability associated with this trough will help generate some showers/tstms this afternoon. There will be a drier northerly flow over north central and northwest CO, associated with a blocking ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The greatest instability will be over the far northeast plains along and east of the trough axis. The blocking upper level high, over the nwrn US, will continue on Tue and then move northeast into Canada by Wed. Meanwhile, the remnants of a very weak upper level trough, will reside over the area both days. Best chc for convection both days will probably be over the higher terrain.
613 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered off of the Mid Atlantic coast through the middle of this week.
313 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The forecast period starts out with a trough over the Central High Plains and south into New Mexico, northerly flow over the Big Horns and a ridge over British Columbia. High pressure remains firmly in place over the PAC NW. Through the day Monday, the trough becomes segmented with a splinter of it moving to the northeast, into Central and Eastern South Dakota and Nebraska. The remaining trough axis will be centered through the Four Corners region with flow becoming southwesterly over the Tri-State area. At the start of the period, high pressure dominates the west coast as well as southern and eastern portions of the CONUS. An upper trough can be seen over eastern Canada, extending southwest towards the Great Lakes.
458 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Current synoptic analysis reveals little change aloft, with northerly flow draped overhead and a trough axis nosing into northeastern Colorado. By this evening, the nose of low pressure retrogrades southwest and winds across the Four Corners shift to the south. Temperatures will run a touch warmer today, though due to increased cloud cover and storm coverage highs should dip 3 to 8 degrees on Tuesday for areas generally along and south of I-70. The northern tier of the forecast area will be still a little to far removed from the storm activity and run another degree or two warmer tomorrow. Storms will generally wind down Tuesday night, though some light stratiform precipitation may lift along the the Divide as moisture rotates back around the northern periphery of the low.
418 AM PDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Triple digit heat is expected through the week with Tuesday likely the hottest day with some areas 110 degrees or warmer. HISTORIC AND DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY A massive ridge of high pressure is currently parked over the West Coast and centered near the WA/Canadian boarder. Beneath this ridge, a virtually cloudless sky is being observed across WA and ID as large scale subsidence prevents any clouds from forming. Given the relatively stagnant ridge and the intense June sun, temperatures will continue to warm today and even more so on Tuesday. Focusing the attention back on today, an easterly gradient will continue and will bring breezy conditions to the lower Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley.
This morning we are starting off with mostly clear skies and temps already in the lower 80s. Our forecast will be controlled by the high pressure that is situated off to our NE today, but there is also a tropical disturbance located off the GA/SC coast that will be a bigger factor in the upcoming days. Another muggy night with overnight lows and dewpoints in the lower 70s. We then turn our attention to the aformentioned low pressure system over the Atlantic near the GA/SC coastline.
250 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 With the mid-level ridging a bit more stout over the region, today's convective activity has been modest at best.
For our location, regionally speaking, this ridge of hot, high pressure is unusual, as it is approaching from the west/northwest, instead of from the southwest.
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible.
Once this system moves west of the area on Tuesday, strengthening upper ridge north of the region will still keep an easterly flow pattern moving across the forecast area through the mid-week. By the end of the week, a digging upper trough moving through the Great Lakes will push the ridge back to the east. High temperatures will near 90 across much of the CWA, but several degrees cooler down in the CSRA where cloud cover has been persistent.
The overall weather pattern features a strong high off the Atlantic coast and in the Pacific northwest with the very slow moving trough in the middle of the country. The southern portion of the upper level trough weakens and retrogrades back into the central Rockies while the northern portion moves into the Great Lakes region. Subtropical high pressure over the mid Atlantic and southeast states will build farther west into the southern Plains.
Deep layer SW flow remains across the western Great Lakes with a fairly narrow corridor of deep moisture (PWAT> 2 inches) extending from the Texas Gulf coast up into the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak area of high pressure lingers across Lower Michigan. Overall forecast confidence with precip chances and placement remain on the low side with varying model solutions that change with each run. Thus, plan is to have the higher precip chances/QPF across the southern and eastern portion of the CWA, with eastern Upper Michigan remaining dry tonight. A surface warm front draped across northern Michigan in combination with daytime heating and moisture in place (precipitable waters 1.
A large ridge of high pressure continues to extend from the western Atlantic through the Eastern Seaboard/ Appalachians/Tennessee Valley region early this afternoon. The first advisory on Tropical Depression 4 was initiated this morning and visible satellite imagery shows the associated low level circulation approaching the SC coast early this afternoon, while a mid/upper level trough axis was progressing westward into northern FL and southern GA. Looking more locally, an easterly to southeasterly surface flow remains prevalent over our forecast area along the southwestern fringe of the ridge of high pressure.
Looks as though the pattern may finally begin to slowly shift late tomorrow into tomorrow night as the ridge begins to retreat and modest height falls begin across the area. An upper level trough will move into the area through the end of the week.
302 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a pair of upper lows working west near southern Texas and northern Florida. At the surface, high pressure centered north of Bermuda reaches southwest across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, dimpled near South Carolina as TD Four approaches the coast. This is no exception for the Florida Keys, where strong thunderstorms moved through both the Upper Keys and the Lower Keys this afternoon.
1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows upper low/trough over S TX, with accompanying plume of tropical moisture on its eastern flank, streaming over the W Gulf of Mexico into western portions of the CWA. 16 inches, with mean RH in the low and mid levels 80 percent or greater, and minimal inhibition.
356 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows the center of the upper low (TUTT) inland over the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Temperature will be cooler than average thanks to storms and cloud cover. Surface dewpoints as of 9 am where mostly in upper 40s to upper 50s with localized spots in the lower 60s. 40" across SW NM where they saw a lot of thunderstorm activity yesterday afternoon/evening associated with an upper level trof/weak upper low in the area. That upper level trof/weak upper low will be a player in our forecast for the next several days.
Tuesday's highs will range from the low to mid 80sF across north- central/northeastern and west-central IL, to upper 80s to low 90sF where greater solar insolation is anticipated elsewhere.
Trough/cold front encroach wl spawn likely POPs for the midweek period and bring an end to the above-average warmth.
Any convection we can get going will have the potential for gusty winds and brief heavy rains, but the upper ridge may win out for the most part, keeping most everything pretty tame.
Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing clear skies as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure settles across the PacNW. The thermal trough currently resides over the Cascade crest, so easterly winds will ensue today before the thermal trough pushes east of the Cascades and into our area Tuesday. Temperatures will peak today and Tuesday as this morning's temperatures are already 2 to 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Several local and state temperature records will be in jeopardy of being broken today as highs will peak between 110-120 across the Lower Columbia Basin.
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Offshore Bermuda high pressure will remain in control through the middle of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern CONUS, pushing the frontal boundary back to the southwest.
The lows across the area will be in the mid to upper 60s and the highs will be in the upper 70 to low 80s.
These showers, associated with an upper low that is moving across south Texas into Mexico, should start to decrease in coverage tonight. The deep moisture behind this low is still abundant and some light, lingering showers may persist overnight. The overall pattern shows little change, and the moist tropical airmass in place, along with the development of a coastal trough, should result in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.
Maybe only to drop forecast temperatures 1 degree cooler than previous forecast, following model trends/consensus.
Upper level ridging is expected to strengthen today but the moist easterly to southeasterly flow should bring some moisture and clouds to southern parts of the area and offset the ridging aloft. Did not change high temperatures today because current forecast for upper 80s to lower 90s look good based on current temperatures at 11 AM in the lower to mid 80s. Changed rain chances slightly upward near Oak Ridge to chance.
The models continue to show mid/upper level trough axis extending from northern Great Plains into northeastern CO. Weak lift/instability associated with this trough will help generate some showers/tstms this afternoon. There will be a drier northerly flow over north central and northwest CO, associated with a blocking ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The greatest instability will be over the far northeast plains along and east of the trough axis. The blocking upper level high, over the nwrn US, will continue on Tue and then move northeast into Canada by Wed. Meanwhile, the remnants of a very weak upper level trough, will reside over the area both days. Best chc for convection both days will probably be over the higher terrain. Just a slight chance these survive off the higher terrain and make it to KDEN.
Ridging continues across the area today but weakening with increasing moisture infiltrating the region. The higher dews still in place will make for warmer temps overnight and increased moisture. The warm and humid conditions continue on Tuesday with the ridge weakening a bit more and retreating to the northeast.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ An increasingly active day of sea breeze induced convection has been enhanced by a weak upper level low down across south Texas. As heating wanes later this evening, convective trends should decrease sharply with some lingering activity still ongoing mainly across our western zones as the aforementioned upper low drifts farther inland from south Texas across the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. Expect rain-cooled low temperatures overnight to drop into the lower to mid 70s, albeit still rather muggy as you might expect this time of year. This is due to the expanding upper level ridge across the SE and mid-Atlantic coast, shifting more westward toward our region. Overnight lows will once again range from the lower to mid 70s across the region.
118 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered off of the Mid Atlantic coast through the middle of this week.
1224 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Current synoptic analysis reveals little change aloft, with northerly flow draped overhead and a trough axis nosing into northeastern Colorado. By this evening, the nose of low pressure retrogrades southwest and winds across the Four Corners shift to the south. Temperatures will run a touch warmer today, though due to increased cloud cover and storm coverage highs should dip 3 to 8 degrees on Tuesday for areas generally along and south of I-70. The northern tier of the forecast area will be still a little to far removed from the storm activity and run another degree or two warmer tomorrow. Storms will generally wind down Tuesday night, though some light stratiform precipitation may lift along the the Divide as moisture rotates back around the northern periphery of the low.
The higher temperatures will also see the relative humidity will drop into the teens for much of the area. As the high pressure situated over Washington shifts northeast into Canada, temperatures will rise in Montana. Fire concerns will also increase as the humidity drops into low teens at most of the lower elevations.
The persistent upper troughing over the central Plains will be replaced by weak ridging aloft as the trof shears northeastward on Tuesday.
248 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Iso SHRA/TSRA continue this aftn near a trof axis slowly shifting sewd thru the n cntrl CONUS. Primary trof axis shifts ewd into the Upper Midwest tonight into early tomorrow. Low- level thermal ridging will slowly expand ewd into the High Plains as mid-to-upper ridge progresses ewd. Main fcst question over the latter half of the work week will be whether or not troughing over the ern CONUS can chip away at the ern periphery of the ridge sufficiently to support lift for showers/storms across our region.
321 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Tonight and tomorrow: A flat upper ridge extending from the Atlantic Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain in place through the period. For tomorrow, an inverted trough associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny is forecast to slide into the area from the east and will help instigate scattered afternoon showers and storms.
200 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 GOES-16 water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a highly amplified pattern in place with stationary ridges of high pressure anchored on both coasts and a deep trough of low pressure over the central CONUS. Impressive tropical tap (atmospheric river) from the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Mexico ahead of the trough was keeping rather humid airmass in place across our forecast area through Tuesday with precipitable water values hovering in the 1. Will see widely scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon into this evening with more coverage expected Tuesday as that trough oozes ever so slowly eastward across the area. Strong Pacific Northwest ridge begins to slowly weaken heading into mid-week.
1119 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Upper air analysis depicts that the omega blocking pattern is still in effect across from British Columbia Canada into the Great Basin, and upper troughing over the Great Plains. As the upper level trough begins to transition towards the east, surface upslope winds should aid in the development of fog across the Laramie Range.
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The upper pattern across the CONUS remains stagnant with ridges located over the east and west coasts and a trough over the center of the country. Perturbations continue to round the base of the trough with showers and storms present along the 850mb front that extends from central Texas and Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri.
The forecast has not changed much in the past 10 to 12 hours, as a large positively tilted trough continues to slowly dig its way east across the Plains States. And, while the mid-level flow ahead of the boundary, and trough in general, is rather weak, around 15 to 20 knots from the south, this has been more than sufficient to induce overrunning shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The 500mb low and weak mid level inverted trough will continue to work southwestward across Deep South Texas into this evening. At the surface, a weak trough develops along the lower Texas coast through Tuesday night.
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Radar and satellite show scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of the region early this morning, out ahead of the longwave trough highlighted nicely by the water vapor channels on GOES-16.
240 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered off of the Mid Atlantic coast through the middle of this week.
215 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 IR/WV satellite review showed the large scale omega block pattern with the heat ridge centered over the Pacific Northwest and upper trough axis over the northern and central Plains. Temperatures will moderate 3-5 degrees with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 A cold front will move southward to the coast by tonight.
258 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The forecast was saddled between the unusually strong high pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and an elongated mid- level low pressure trough extending southwestward from the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. Showers have developed over the higher elevations of the Sawatch and San Juans early this afternoon, and expect lightning will pick up as afternoon wears on. The trough over the southern Plains retreats northeastward later tonight allowing the high over the southeastern US to expand westward causing a shift in flow to the south for much of the area on Tuesday.
In addition, a diffuse cold front is stalled, oriented northeast to southwest, just west of the area forecast area. The higher concentration of showers and thunderstorms will likely be across our western counties, closer to the diffuse cold front. High temperatures will be well below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s.
Satellite shows a widespread Cu field over the entire area, with the quasi-stationary front still draped from TX through OK, MO and into the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will cool off into the low to mid 70s overnight. A low pressure system sits off the mid California coast, blocked by an intense high pressure system that is sitting over the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern Canada giving them record breaking temperatures and heat indices. A low pressure system is located in southeastern Canada and near the Great Lakes.
So, this is where the highest PoPs are forecast, though only around a 40% chance. Lows tonight falling into the low to mid-70s. As newly formed Tropical Storm Danny dissipates over northern Georgia, mid/upper level high pressure will remain centered just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs once again increasing into the upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon, with overnight lows in the low to mid- 70s.
Danny will be the feature of the short term as it continues to ride into the area on the southern periphery of large vertically stacked high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Period starts out with the region in the gap between the splitting upper ridge.
153 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The forecast period starts out with a trough over the Central High Plains and south into New Mexico, northerly flow over the Big Horns and a ridge over British Columbia. High pressure remains firmly in place over the PAC NW. Through the day Monday, the trough becomes segmented with a splinter of it moving to the northeast, into Central and Eastern South Dakota and Nebraska. The remaining trough axis will be centered through the Four Corners region with flow becoming southwesterly over the Tri-State area. At the start of the period, an upper trough continues across eastern Canada into the Great Lakes. In addition, an area of high pressure is located over the southern Plains, with ridging over portions of the western CONUS.
The trough that has been enabling these showers will be drawing east tonight into tomorrow, but will keep western and central WY in dry northeasterly flow. A weak ridge does develop but with the building heat and available moisture; convection development does look possible as we get closer to the holiday weekend.
136 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 As has been the case over the last couple of days, an upper trough continues to sit over Mid-America. Meanwhile, highly anomalous ridging continues across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia with another ridge over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast regions. The upper trough will begin to finally start its shift east this tonight thru Tuesday. However continued weak moisture advection amidst the high PW airmass will likely result in additional scattered showers and storms through mid week. With ample cloud cover and scattered showers and storms, temperatures will remain below normal in the low to mid 80s.
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 As of this afternoon, high pressure has worked its way to just east of the Plains, and is expected to be widespread by this evening. At upper levels, high pressure resides over the east coast and the PACNW, where it is starting to move ENE. In between the 2 systems, broad troughing hangs across the middle CONUS from Ontario to NM or so. These are diurnally driven, with some FGEN in the broad trough axis and steep LL lapse rates aiding in formation. As such, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s across the region. For tomorrow, winds will shift to be southeasterly as the high moves to the east some. So, fcst highs are in the lower 80s. Behind this high pressure system, low pressure builds in over the Rockies.
1246 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Update - Risk for locally heavy rain into Tuesday - Isolated severe storms possible Tuesday - Cooler for the end of the week. more rain? A warm front is situated along Interstate 94 at midday with southwest winds to the south of it and at least some easterly component noted to the north. The warm front is expected to creep north across Southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon to near Interstate 96. We are expecting surface based CAPE values to exceed 2,000 J/KG in the warm sector near and south of the warm front. Some storms may even try to acquire rotation, especially near the warm front. - Cooler for the end of the week.
Moisture will linger though, providing a muggy night with lows and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Atlantic high pressure will then prevail before a cold front approaches the region late week.