Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
327 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Weak trough in central South Dakota as of 20Z is expected to shift east through the evening hours. Could see a few elevated snow showers along the highway 14 corridor through the late afternoon- early evening hours. Expect precipitation to only last for a few hours, but intensity should be enough to overcome surface temperatures near freezing.
Thereafter, high pressure will build into the southern Plains and lower/mid MS River Valley, bringing clearing skies Tuesday/Tuesday night and mild early March temps in the lower/mid 60s at most locations.
849 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 A weak cold front moved through the area this morning and should exit the state this afternoon. The 00z KILX sounding confirms this with plenty of dry air in the lowest 10-12kft of the atmosphere. Cold front has pushed southeast of forecast area this afternoon. The trough axis should move east of the area by Tuesday afternoon bringing Mostly Sunny skies and rebounding temperatures back into the 50s. Tuesday Night a weak disturbance diving down the backside of the broad east coast trough may be sufficent to produce a flurry or sprinkle from Bloomington through Peoria and Galesburg.
The low-level jet will weaken by 7 PM ET this evening. Models show the low-level jet pulling moist/warmer air into the boundary layer with some cooling in the mid-levels.
This area is along a low level convergence zone that is enhanced by a warm front lifting northward. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s south of the warm front with 50s and 60s north of the front. A weak short wave trof will enhance convective activity across central Mississippi after midnight. Temperatures will warm tomorrow as the warm front pushes into far north Alabama. Temperatures should reach into the lower to middle 70s along and south of I-20/59.
339 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Upper trough axis moving through this afternoon, with surface reflection just entering far northwest part of the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s and lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 20s.
coast with a broad trough over TX/OK. Weather across the region shows temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with south winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 this afternoon, slightly less than yesterday.
418 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Water vapor shows short wave trof moving through the Dakotas with strong west/northwest flow extending all the way into the Gulf of Alaska. Surface trof nearly stacked with the upper level trof, extending through the central Dakotas. Gusty winds across much of the area today both ahead of and behind the surface trof, and near advisory criteria across far northwest SD.
A mid-level trough extends from south-central Canada southward into western Kansas and toward a deep closed mid-level low near the Baja California coast. A slight shift in winds and a few high clouds will accompany the trough overnight as temperatures cool into the low and mid 30s. Tomorrow will then present much like today, except that temps will be a touch warmer. Warming will be aided by westerly downslope winds and decent PBL mixing during the afternoon, so forecast highs for tomorrow afternoon are in the low 60s. The aforementioned mid-level closed low is expected to pass well south of the area mid-week, only bringing some high clouds to our sky.
457 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) The closed upper low near the Baja California coast will drift slowly east toward the Sonora/Chihuahua border by 04/00Z.
A weak cold front will stall out near the south shore of Lake Erie overnight. An area of low pressure will then track north across the state on Tuesday. Min temps will be in the low to mid 40s in most spots, and nearly steady in the upper 30s to around 40F over the Northern Tier of PA. RAP sfc based cape peaks at 700-900 j/kg across the southern third-half of PA in the 19Z Tuesday - 01Z Wed window, and some scattered TSRA embedded within the overall larger areas of SHRA looks plausible based on strong dynamics/uvvel associated with the left exit region of a howling 165 kt upper jet tracking east from the lower-mid Ohio River Valley.
These showers will bring accumulating snow to the higher terrain, especially across northwest Montana.
The morning inversion and precipitation will keep winds at bay initially, but as the inversion breaks (around 9 to 10 AM but earlier in the higher terrain of the Little Rockies) and precipitation ends, look for winds to rapidly ramp up. There still remains some uncertainty in just how strong this low level jet will be and where exactly the core of the jet will move, so that is why a watch has been issued instead of a warning.
Synoptically, there is a low pressure center propagating south of Colorado, so south, in fact, that the only impacts southern Colorado will get are warm and pleasant weather.
900 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Southerly flow will continue tonight around the Atlantic ridge becoming light inland and 5-10 mph near the Atlantic coast. Lows tonight will range from mid to upper 50s across cooler spots across the interior to lower to mid 60s along the Treasure Coast beaches.
Patchy freezing fog is possible in some valley locations again Tuesday morning. Otherwise high pressure will spread across the Great Basin region and temperatures will warm back up into the 60s later this week as dry conditions continue. The weekend may be a little unsettled as a low pressure system moves south along the California coast.
240 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 The low clouds and fog from earlier today have diminished this afternoon leaving thin overcast skies and hazy conditions for the evening and overnight hours. Main feature to affect the northern Front Range tonight will be the possibility of strong westerly winds along the I-25 Urban Corridor and Cheyenne Ridge. A few locations west of I-25 are currently experiencing gusty conditions into the lower 30 mph range this early and mid- afternoon. Forecast cross sections indicate mountain level stability maximizing between 00Z-06Z Tuesday, however with strongest jet level winds holding over the Nebraska panhandle believe the strongest winds speed won't transport to the lowest elevations. Overnight, the mid-level pressure gradient begins to relax over northern Colorado, so the strongest winds over the higher terrain would be expected to diminish already by Tuesday morning.
747 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Moisture advection over the Southeast Tuesday will promote showers ahead of a cold front which will move through late in the day.
As the main upper low moves across northern Sonora Mexico on Tuesday, shower chances look to be confined to the White Mountains, with dry weather and a significant warming trend elsewhere.
544 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Weak trough in central South Dakota as of 20Z is expected to shift east through the evening hours. Could see a few elevated snow showers along the highway 14 corridor through the late afternoon- early evening hours. Expect precipitation to only last for a few hours, but intensity should be enough to overcome surface temperatures near freezing.
Some low level warming precedes the trough with some weak north-south running frontogenetic response associated with a warm front. The weekend is shaping up to be another warm one as a broad upper level ridge works its way across the region.
Precip will shut off sharply from west to east later this morning as the upper trof axis pushes into the upper Ohio Valley.
147 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY. Activity will be mostly rain on the plains by late morning and mostly snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills where a couple inches of accumulation may occur.
202 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 The upper low that will bring the forecast area's next rain event is spinning over the northern Gulf of California, and based on water vapor satellite imagery, finally appears to have finally begun moving eastward. Meanwhile, a short wave ridge axis oriented northwest to southeast is present over the forecast and will only very slowly move northeastward through the day today. Precipitation across the forecast area will only begin after this ridge axis moves. In addition, yesterday's weak cold front that has retreated northward will return to the area today as an upper level short wave trough moves across the Missouri Valley.
1014 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Water vapor shows short wave trof moving through the Dakotas with strong west/northwest flow extending all the way into the Gulf of Alaska. Surface trof nearly stacked with the upper level trof, extending through the central Dakotas. Gusty winds across much of the area today both ahead of and behind the surface trof, and near advisory criteria across far northwest SD.
With the approach of the warm front Tuesday night, low ceilings and reduced visibility readings due to fog may occur during the afternoon and persist possibly Tuesday evening.
Pleasant weather conditions for the short term forecast as a weak cold front pushes through the CWA overnight with weak northwest winds behind it. Morning lows will be on the chilly side dropping into the mid 20s to low 30s around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and the weak winds allowing for good radiational cooling.
1251 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Moisture advection over the Southeast Tuesday will promote showers ahead of a cold front which will move through late in the day.
1103 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 The cold front has made it into southeast MO and southern IL this afternoon. Convection should initiate late this afternoon and early this evening ahead of the low across south central MO and move into southeast MO by 00Z. There will likely be a few thunderstorms across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL this evening with a possibility of small hail across Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties in southeast MO where the low level moisture and instability will be maximized with CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg around 00Z Tuesday. Colder low temperatures can be expected tonight over most of our area as lower surface dew points advect into the region behind the cold front, although the lows will still be slightly above normal for most of the region.
The low clouds and fog from earlier today have diminished this afternoon leaving thin overcast skies and hazy conditions for the evening and overnight hours. Main feature to affect the northern Front Range tonight will be the possibility of strong westerly winds along the I-25 Urban Corridor and Cheyenne Ridge. A few locations west of I-25 are currently experiencing gusty conditions into the lower 30 mph range this early and mid- afternoon. Forecast cross sections indicate mountain level stability maximizing between 00Z-06Z Tuesday, however with strongest jet level winds holding over the Nebraska panhandle believe the strongest winds speed won't transport to the lowest elevations. Overnight, the mid-level pressure gradient begins to relax over northern Colorado, so the strongest winds over the higher terrain would be expected to diminish already by Tuesday morning.
Round of showers/storms expected overnight into early Tuesday as a cold front passes.
MVFR conditions will prevail (with some occasional IFR) early this morning as moisture advects into the region along a warm front, before pre cold frontal convection sags southward into the area around daybreak. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 47 59 46 55 / 80 10 30 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 42 60 44 53 / 90 10 20 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 66 41 62 43 53 / 80 10 10 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 37 59 39 52 / 90 20 10 20 50.
An upper disturbance within a northwest flow aloft will bring a chance of snow to the higher elevations in the north (Baker County and West Central Idaho mountains) through Tuesday morning.
900 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2020 Deep low pressure over northern Baja tonight will maintain a strong northeast flow aloft over Southern California through Tuesday morning.
The upper level ridge of high pressure off the coast will keep the area under a northwest flow. A little moisture coming over the ridge will produce some precipitation along the Cascade crest and over the eastern mountains with snow levels 4000 to 5000 feet.
215 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated over northwest Mexico while another trough was situated over southwest Ontario with a broad NW mid/upper flow regime building into the Central Plains region. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will translate eastward across the area today bringing light winds and mostly sunny conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low 60s for most areas. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, radiational cooling may allow some locations to fall below freezing while most areas see lows in the mid 30s.
Scattered shwrs and isolated tstms will continue to develop in advance of a cold front which will gradually ease its way SE across the region through this TAF period. However, coverage of this convection has remained isolated so have lowered PoPs slightly across much of the region in advance of an approaching cold front.
1056 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) The closed upper low near the Baja California coast will drift slowly east toward the Sonora/Chihuahua border by 04/00Z.
1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 A weak cold front moved through the area this morning and should exit the state this afternoon. The 00z KILX sounding confirms this with plenty of dry air in the lowest 10-12kft of the atmosphere. Cold front has pushed southeast of forecast area this afternoon. The trough axis should move east of the area by Tuesday afternoon bringing Mostly Sunny skies and rebounding temperatures back into the 50s. Tuesday Night a weak disturbance diving down the backside of the broad east coast trough may be sufficent to produce a flurry or sprinkle from Bloomington through Peoria and Galesburg.
320 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 A low pressure system moving northeast out of the Ohio Valley will bring another round of rain today.
1053 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Weak trough in central South Dakota as of 20Z is expected to shift east through the evening hours. Could see a few elevated snow showers along the highway 14 corridor through the late afternoon- early evening hours. Expect precipitation to only last for a few hours, but intensity should be enough to overcome surface temperatures near freezing.
1025 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Upper trough axis moving through this afternoon, with surface reflection just entering far northwest part of the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s and lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 20s.
A cold front has moved into the Mid-South with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs in the 60s. High pressure will build into the region tonight with dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with lows Wednesday morning from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Shower activity will be confined to the White Mountains region today, with clear and warmer weather elsewhere.
405 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY. Activity will be mostly rain on the plains by late morning and mostly snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills where a couple inches of accumulation may occur.
Wednesday has the potential to be a windy day with a strong upper level jet and cold front passage.
335 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday, except a couple degrees warmer over our southwestern counties. The 500mb trough will be across MN will shift east, with northwest flow continuing across our area through at least early Wednesday. While our northwestern counties aren't expected to get much if any snow, as temperatures are too warm when precipitation moves in this afternoon, they will have the highest risk for stronger winds.
With the strong ridging pattern, well above-seasonably warm temperatures will set in with 60s and low 70s particularly across the Pathfinder.
/Issued 355 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ High clouds continued to stream across the Southern Plains in response to an upper level closed low positioned over the Eastern Baja and far Northwest Mexico early this morning. winds were light across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas behind a cold front located just southeast of the CWA. Temps ranged from the low 30s near the Kansas border to the low 50s along the Red River. This evening and especially late tonight into Wednesday the upper low is progged to make its way into Southwest Texas with an increasing area of warm advection lifting into Southeast Oklahoma. This will allow for rain chances to become possible across Southeast Oklahoma Tonight with the greater potential near the Red River Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper low moves through the region.
416 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Temperatures this morning are in the lower to mid 70s across the Florida Keys. GOES-East infrared imagery and Key West radar data shows an old land breeze boundary generated by the island of Cuba lifting northeastward into the Lower Keys at this hour.
709 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: A cold front was moving through the area. May have to add flood a limited for flooding today, mainly across Central MS, where moisture transport was greatest and theta-e ridge has set up. A cold front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. As this front hangs up over the coast, a low pressure system will track across north Mexico and will continue to track east into Texas.
May have to add flood a limited for flooding today, mainly across Central MS, where moisture transport was greatest and theta-e ridge has set up.
Highs will range from the lower 40s along Hwy 20 to the lower 50s south. Wednesday, surface and upper level ridging will provide quiet conditions with highs in the 40s north to lower 50s south.
847 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Flow around high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue the southerly flow of warm and more humid air through Wednesday.
550 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Mild temperatures and occasional rain showers can be expected through early Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
355 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 High clouds continued to stream across the Southern Plains in response to an upper level closed low positioned over the Eastern Baja and far Northwest Mexico early this morning. winds were light across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas behind a cold front located just southeast of the CWA. Temps ranged from the low 30s near the Kansas border to the low 50s along the Red River. This evening and especially late tonight into Wednesday the upper low is progged to make its way into Southwest Texas with an increasing area of warm advection lifting into Southeast Oklahoma. This will allow for rain chances to become possible across Southeast Oklahoma Tonight with the greater potential near the Red River Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper low moves through the region.
As the upper low moves out the Southwest US Baja area and tracks through Texas on Wednesday rain chances will increase for Middle TN from south to north.
/Today through Wednesday/ Flow aloft will transition from zonal to southwest across the region today as a closed low continues to move towards the Southern Plains from the Northern Baja Region of Mexico. At the same time, a cold front, currently located along the I-30 corridor of Texas and Arkansas, will slowly drift southeastward across the CWA today. By Wednesday, the closed low across Baja Mexico will move into West Texas, and widespread rain chances will return to the region. Temperatures will remain above normal today, as highs will climb into the low to mid 70s ahead of the front with lows in the 50s tonight. With a post frontal airmass in place along with widespread rain, highs on Wednesday should be cooler with temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
318 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 High pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep a somewhat active northwest flow across the northern Intermountain region through Wednesday, with a couple of embedded weak disturbances brushing northern Utah.
A closed low will swing south of the CWA today and tonight, leaving the entire area under dry, northwest flow aloft. By Wednesday, the mid- level closed low will propagate well to our southeast and winds will also weaken aloft. This gradual warming trend will continue Wednesday, with high temperatures jumping about 5 degrees warmer than today. High temperatures will continue to climb through the end of the workweek due to an amplified ridge building over the region.
654 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Strengthening low pressure will track northeast across the eastern Grt Lks today, with the trailing cold front coming through central Pa this evening.
240 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Upper trough axis moving through this afternoon, with surface reflection just entering far northwest part of the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s and lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 20s. None of these parameters enough to prompt fire weather concerns, especially given the lower wind speeds expected. High temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s and lows Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front is currently progressing SE through the CWA early this Tue morning. An upper level closed low to the SW of the state will begin slowly lifting ENE towards AR tonight into Wed. This upper closed low will move east over SRN sections of the state Wed night. mainly across far SRN sections of the state under the closed low.
318 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Weak high pressure is building across the Mississippi Valley today. The sunshine combined with strong and gusty west wind should push temperatures up into the low to mid 60s across most of the area. Northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will be further back into the cooler air to the north, so upper 50s look more likely for those areas. Latest guidance keeps the low far enough south that it has little direct impact on the weather in Missouri and Illinois.
524 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Strengthening low pressure will track northeast across the eastern Grt Lks today, with the trailing cold front coming through central Pa this evening.
The morning inversion and precipitation will keep winds at bay initially, but as the inversion breaks (around 9 to 10 AM but earlier in the higher terrain of the Little Rockies) and precipitation pushes east, look for winds to rapidly ramp up. Temperatures will again be warm, although a cold front moving south in the afternoon will bring a chance of showers with it.
Terrain influences will create a Longmont Anticyclone at the surface with northwesterly winds near the Wyoming and Nebraska borders becoming more northerly or northeasterly near and south of I-70.
/issued 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The main event during this portion of the forecast will be the Wednesday morning passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Later in the afternoon and evening, rain will mostly change to snow east of the Missouri River Valley, perhaps putting down a narrow band of accumulating snow up to an inch somewhere between the Highway 83 corridor and the southern James River Valley.
202 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2020 High pressure will be in control of our weather through much of the week with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected. The next shot of precipitation and gusty winds will come this weekend as a low pressure system approaches the West Coast. A quieter pattern will be in store over the next few days as upper level ridging strengthens across the region.
Forecast soundings indicate the high clouds could be quite thick (~10,000 to 15,000 ft thickness).
Temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday, except a couple degrees warmer over our southwestern counties. The 500mb trough will be across MN will shift east, with northwest flow continuing across our area through at least early Wednesday. While our northwestern counties aren't expected to get much if any snow, as temperatures are too warm when precipitation moves in this afternoon, they will have the highest risk for stronger winds.