Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1053 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 (This afternoon through Thursday) A transient trough within progressive amplified upper flow pattern has sent a cold front into the area, ending the period of above normal temperatures. Lows tomorrow morning will be below freezing across roughly the northwest half of the area, and a hard freeze is expected in far northwest Oklahoma, including Arnett, Buffalo and possibly Woodward.
Similar to yesterday, highs will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s, as the cold front and resultant air mass change will not occur until late this afternoon and well into the evening. Tonight will be much cooler for the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA as CAA works into behind the cold front. Lows will range from the lower 30s north to the upper 40s in the far southeastern portion of the CWA. In the higher elevations of far north GA, gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible.
1030 PM MST Wed Nov 17 2021 Drier air moved in fairly quickly late this morning into the afternoon behind the departing trough and cold front, giving way to clear skies. Models do show high clouds increasing Thursday as another Pacific trough moves into the Pacific Northwest, but thinking the cloud cover will hold off until late Thursday morning and afternoon, allowing low temperatures to bottom out well below freezing. The flow will turn more westerly as the Pacific Northwest trough moves inland and flattens the ridge.
302 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Cooler than average temperatures but otherwise quiet weather highlights the short term forecast. Quiet weather continues on Friday as a weak upper ridge passes overhead, with highs ranging from near freezing in the Turtle Mountains region to around 50 in the southwest.
520 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the western US through today. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs only rising into the 40s. However, some warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 8 C to 12 C range on Friday will help support warmer surface temperatures for the end of the week.
728 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A crossing cold front brings rain to the region today. Updated the forecast PoPs slightly to account for current trends, mainly the light showers ahead of the advancing cold front. An inch or so of accumulation will be possible in spots along the northern CWA border, with less than an inch along the ridges and virtually no accumulation elsewhere.
Some wisps of thin cirrus otherwise the sky was clear this morning under weak ridging aloft. Gusty east winds today associated with back door cold front moving in from SW NM.
507 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 (Today and tonight) Skies are beginning to clear across northeast Oklahoma, which should allow for temperatures to near or below freezing for most areas by sunrise. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for efficient radiational cooling and more widespread freezing temperatures are forecast by Friday morning.
Similar to yesterday, highs will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s, as the cold front and resultant air mass change will not occur until late this afternoon and well into the evening. Tonight will be much cooler for the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA as CAA works in behind the cold front. Lows will range from the lower 30s north to the upper 40s in the far southeastern portion of the CWA. In the higher elevations of far north GA, gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible. Quasi-zonal upper-level flow and high pressure at the mid- and lower-levels will translate to a sunny, dry Friday with highs in the mid-50s north to mid-60s south. A sharp longwave upper trough will deepen across the eastern half of the country late weekend into the first of the week.
352 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the western US through today. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs only rising into the 40s. However, some warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 8 C to 12 C range on Friday will help support warmer surface temperatures for the end of the week.
537 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 The cold front is exiting the southeast corner of the state at this time. High pressure and decreasing clouds are expected through the day. Today Through Friday Night Upper low pressure extends from near the Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This upper low will move off to the east today. Showers and thunderstorms continue across all but northwest Arkansas this morning associated with a cold front. Clear skies are expected tonight through Friday with high pressure in control.
Rain and snow showers will begin to develop across Southwestern Montana and along the Rocky Mountain Front during the day on Friday, though most of this activity should be confined to the higher terrain. Areas across the North-Central Plains should remain dry during the day, but may see a few isolated to scattered rain and snow showers develop along a cold front that will slide through the area late in the afternoon and evening.
High pressure aloft will build into the region late this week, leading to increasing temperatures Friday into the weekend, with highs in the 50s north to near 60 degrees in portions of northern Kansas.
312 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Somewhat flat ridging aloft should build into the region as an upper system continues to move east and away from the forecast area. At that time a milder airmass will gradually advect into the region, resulting in warmer sfc temps.
Cool air will remain in place across the forecast area today with highs running about ten degrees cooler than average for the date. Low level flow will return to southwesterly with modest warm advection resulting in a warmer day on Friday as the cool, extremely dry air of days past exits the area.
308 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Big changes are in store today as a cold front brings showers and much cooler temperatures- generally around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. The cold front had already passed Clarksville where temps had dropped from 67 to 48 during the past couple of hours. Some locations will record the highest temps for the day at sunrise, but many areas will experience modest temperature recovery this afternoon as skies clear out quickly.
Today Through Friday Night Upper low pressure extends from near the Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This upper low will move off to the east today. Showers and thunderstorms continue across all but northwest Arkansas this morning associated with a cold front. Clear skies are expected tonight through Friday with high pressure in control.
524 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Somewhat flat ridging aloft should build into the region as an upper system continues to move east and away from the forecast area. At that time a milder airmass will gradually advect into the region, resulting in warmer sfc temps.
These winds will bring warmer temps to the area with highs Friday in the low 30s north to low 40s south, 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
An upper level trough will move into the eastern U. The highest rain chances are still expected to be from around the Interstate 4 corridor southward this afternoon and early tonight as the upper level energy moves across the area. On Friday, a cool front associated with the upper level trough will move across the region with a few more showers possible, followed by some drier but not much cooler air.
0 Cooler than average temperatures but otherwise quiet weather highlights the short term forecast. Quiet weather continues on Friday as a weak upper ridge passes overhead, with highs ranging from near freezing in the Turtle Mountains region to around 50 in the southwest.
Current WV satellite imagery reveals a closed, upper-level low positioned over the Hudson Bay with a trough axis extending southwest into eastern Kansas. The significant slope of the trough axis into the colder air is indicative of a strong cold front, which pushed out of Illinois overnight. Winds will begin to crank later this morning as low-level lapse rates steepen ahead of the trough axis. Clouds will exit the region this evening as large scale subsidence works in behind the departing trough axis.
/issued 325 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ Latest MSAS analysis places a surface cold front roughly from Camden, TN to Marianna, MS and back to Elaine, AR. The cold front and accompanying precipitation will continue east this morning with winds turning to the N/NW as the front passes. Expect cooler temperatures this afternoon, low to mid 50s, thanks to north winds. Dry and cool conditions continue on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the west.
A broad upper ridge is in place across the Western US today with a trough sitting about 135W off the WA/OR coast. We're already seeing increasing clouds across southeast Idaho as the ridge axis nears, but precip should hold off until later this evening. The trough offshore should make landfall around 12Z Friday, while precip expands into most of the forecast area. Some areas in the Eastern Highlands could see some modest snowfall in the higher elevations, and around 1 to 3 inches around mountain passes.
After that cold start will see temperatures rebound into the low to mid 40s with filtered sunshine and breezy south to southwest winds developing in the afternoon. Breezy conditions and cloud cover tonight will make for warmer overnight temperatures tonight, with lows near freezing in most locations. Cold front arrives for the evening hours with isolated to scattered rain showers for the lower elevations spreading from west to east. Do not expect much if any snow accumulation below 5000 feet as temperatures will hold in the lower 30s through the night.
634 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 Aviation - Upper Troughing and light Snow Showers Today/Tonight Cold air and cyclonic flow with inversion heights into the DGZ about 5 to 10 kft AGL will mean snow showers today with amounts expected to be an inch or less as surface temperatures will be a bit above freezing in the mid 30s. Rising heights and surface ridging should end the snow showers by Friday morning.
447 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 (Today and tonight) The center of the cooler and much drier air mass will pass west to east over Oklahoma today. Surface lee trough development early Friday will bring wind speeds up there by daybreak. In our Texas counties we will go with a freeze warning for Friday morning with temperatures expected near or slightly below freezing.
As of early this morning, the cold front has made it's way across central Indiana and is currently sitting near the Ohio River. As the high passes overhead, dry, sinking air will bring clear and calm conditions for most of the day Friday. By the end of the short term, clouds will begin to return once central Indiana is on the back side of the high and an upper short wave draws near. There will be some weak disturbances in the flow, starting with a upper level ridge Friday night.
523 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Stratus deck pivoting through the base of the upper level trough has pushed into portions of SW MN and the Hwy 14 corridor. It's at this point that this higher momentum air may be more readily tapped allowing for gustier southerly winds to surface.
Temperatures were mainly in the lower to middle 30s, with a few sites in the mid and upper 20s, and dew points were in the 20 to 25 degree range. Meanwhile, a disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow around the departing low pressure moving NE of Ontario Canada will sweep across northern Iowa and northern Illinois. Tonight, winds will diminish overnight becoming nearly calm by daybreak Friday as the ridge of high pressure is overhead.
High pressure is starting to break down, evident by steadily increasing high level cloud cover overnight. Overall 2 to 4 inches of snow seem likely at Lookout Pass with 3 to 6 inches, locally up to 8 inches possible along the higher terrain of the Idaho/Montana border region. A weaker cold front will pass across Montana early in the evening and could help focus additional snow shower activity in the northwesterly flow. But a few more intense showers could be possible Friday evening as the upper level trough passes overhead.
Noticeably cooler across the area this morning. Generally about 15F cooler than it has been the past couple of mornings with every ASOS/AWOS having hit freezing by 10Z / 4AM with the exception of Omaha Millard. This is only the fifth morning that Eppley has slipped sub- freezing so far this season.
This trough continues its eastward progression today with associated mid-level vorticity streams providing mediocre ascent over the forecast area. Low-level (850mb) temperatures bottom out at -13C during the day today, resulting in high surface temperatures in the low to mid the 30s. Upper-level northwest flow along the northern periphery of a pseudo ridge means Friday brings return southerly surface flow. Diabatic heating will be limited from clouds, and resultant max temperatures will be seasonal in the low 40s for most.
Anticyclonic flow around the high pressure system is keeping our winds light out of the north. Dew points range from the teens to the low 20s early this morning. Water vapor imagery shows dry air through the mid levels as well with the upper trough slowly nudging eastward over the Midwest. Temps are expected to only warm into the mid 40s near the KS/NE border, and into the low 50s closer to central KS. Minimum RH values are forecast from the upper 20 percents to the low 30 percent range and with the gusty winds, fire danger is elevated once again.
Lots of high cloudiness ahead of the approaching weak system is spreading over NorCal early this morning as the ridge nudges eastward.
Cooler temperatures are on tap today thanks to a dry cold front that moved through last night.
Big changes are in store today as a cold front brings showers and much cooler temperatures- generally around 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. The cold front had already passed Clarksville where temps had dropped from 67 to 48 during the past couple of hours. Some locations will record the highest temps for the day at sunrise, but many areas will experience modest temperature recovery this afternoon as skies clear out quickly.
511 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 A cold front will return rain to the region today. A fast moving cold front will spread rain showers across the area this morning. An inch or so of accumulation will be possible in spots along the northern CWA border, with less than an inch along the ridges and virtually no accumulation elsewhere.
A band of showers will move across the area associated with a cold front. Clearing and turning colder tonight Discussion: An upper trough with its axis west of the Mississippi River will move across our area and will have its axis to our east by late in the period. At the surface, a cold front will push through our area today and then off to our east this afternoon.
This will feature a 2 cool days followed by 2 warmer days and so on.
A cold front and its trailing precipitation continues to work east through the region. This will usher in cooler temperatures and limit high temperatures to the upper 40s for most. Friday will be chilly but with lots of sunshine as strong high pressure moves directly overhead.
325 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Latest MSAS analysis places a surface cold front roughly from Camden, TN to Marianna, MS and back to Elaine, AR. The cold front and accompanying precipitation will continue east this morning with winds turning to the N/NW as the front passes. Expect cooler temperatures this afternoon, low to mid 50s, thanks to north winds. Dry and cool conditions continue on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the west.
439 AM MST Thu Nov 18 2021 Upper ridge on today and zonal flow aloft on Friday will bring slowly warming temperatures that will rise to be near or slightly above normal by the weekend.
So it will be breezy and cool with highs only in the low 40s to low 50s, despite sunny skies.
Upper ridge flattens Friday with increasing mid/high clouds.
(Thru Tonight) Skies have cleared and high pressure continues to build into the region behind yesterday's cold front. Overall, good conditions for radiational cooling and widespread sub-freezing temps by morning.
Cold front moving through the forecast area now. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 53 34 56 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 50 31 56 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 49 30 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 47 27 54 32 / 20 0 0 0 0.
1250 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 Aviation - Upper Troughing and light Snow Showers Today/Tonight Cold air and cyclonic flow with inversion heights into the DGZ about 5 to 10 kft AGL will mean snow showers today with amounts expected to be an inch or less as surface temperatures will be a bit above freezing in the mid 30s. Rising heights and surface ridging should end the snow showers by Friday morning.
Somewhat flat ridging aloft should build into the region as an upper system continues to move east and away from the forecast area. At that time a milder airmass will gradually advect into the region, resulting in warmer sfc temps.
1102 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Cold front moving quickly across the area this morning with a few mainly light rainshowers occuring along and behind it.
(This evening through Friday) The main concern in the short term forecast is the potential for near to below freezing temperatures across much of West Central Texas overnight. Dewpoints are forecast to generally remain in the teens, although they could creep back up into the lower 20s after midnight, mainly across our southern counties. If skies become mostly clear, freezing temperatures could be reached across even our southern counties, but if cloud cover lingers, it could keep overnight lows just above freezing. Farther north, a Freeze Warning remains in effect from midnight through 8 AM, where confidence is higher that freezing temperatures will be reached.
more widespread freezing temps are forecast across the CWA.
148 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Currently, a sprawling 1000mb low pressure system is centered over the southern tip of Hudson Bay beneath broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a stout 1034mb high pressure system is centered over Oklahoma, altogether affording a tight pressure gradient across the Great Lakes. As the low pulls away this evening, winds will gradually decrease in magnitude clouds will clear. We'll have a great opportunity to view the nearly full lunar eclipse tonight, though overnight lows in the low to mid 20s will demand dressing in layers if planning to head outdoors for a quick glimpse. Tomorrow, the aforementioned high pressure system will drift eastward affording light and eventually southerly winds.
240 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Strong low pressure was located near James Bay and was spreading an overcast deck of stratus as far south as almost to Hwy 34. Meanwhile, high pressure was situated in northeast OK and pretty decent gradient between these systems was causing northwest winds gusting to around 35 mph. With h8 temps -12C this is a cold day when combined with the clouds, wind and mid afternoon temperatures only in the lower to mid 30s. Tonight: As the strong cyclone continues to track northeast, the high pressure ridge will be building into the dvn forecast area. This will allow for a cold night with lows bottoming out in the lower 20s with some traditional cold spots perhaps in the upper teens! Friday: Return southerly flow around the departing high will bring warmer temperatures to the area.
Any precipiation associated with the low is now well east of central Indiana with drier air filtering into the forecast area. A few clouds on the back side of the system could filter down into the northern counties later today, but they will be short-lived as subsidence continues to strengthen with upper ridging. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain well below normal with daytime highs only topping off in the low to mid 40s and overnight lows just below the freezing mark.
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Stratus deck pivoting through the base of the upper level trough has pushed into portions of SW MN and the Hwy 14 corridor. It's at this point that this higher momentum air may be more readily tapped allowing for gustier southerly winds to surface.
(Today through Friday afternoon) The strong upper low over Ontario this morning has a trough extending southward that will move into the the Mississippi Valley today as the upper ridge builds into the region from the west. This ridge flattens out Friday as the next upper trough hits the NW Coast and moves quickly inland. Andrews County will be on the edge of freezing temps but kept them just above for now. South wind and warmer temps return Friday with temps climbing back into the 60s. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains along with a Freeze Warning for the higher elevation of the Guadalupes.
Dew points in the mid 20s will keep snow very light this afternoon with moisture evaporating or sublimating to the atmosphere, but these low dew points will also keep temperatures cooler due to wet bulb cooling effects. Expecting that snow will have a harder time sticking to roads across the Highway 2 corridor, I-90, and Highway 195 to the Palouse until we get into the nighttime hours and we lose the insolation. Temperatures will be above freezing today and the challenge will be the cooling and precipitation intensities for transitioning to snow tonight into Friday morning.
The most notable changes from day- to-day will be occasionally gusty winds and minor temperature fluctuations ushered in by a series of cold fronts.
Cold front currently moving through the region will continue to bring showers to terminals mainly in the morning, and into the early afternoon for KCSV.
1204 PM PST Thu Nov 18 2021 Patchy dense fog is possible tonight into Friday morning in the Central Valley; however, a trough of low pressure will pass through the northern half of the Golden State by Friday afternoon and evening. All precipitation associated with this trough of low pressure will remain north of Central California. The persistent upper-level ridge pattern is giving way to a more zonal flow and will allow an upper-level trough with a weakening cold front to pass over Central California on Friday. This cold front will provide little changes in terms of sensible weather, except for some increased mid-level and high cloud cover. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge pattern will return over the Southwest U.
Zonal flow aloft continues through the weekend which will slow down the approaching cold front.
Winds shift to the south tomorrow as the high moves east. Warmer air will then be able to advect into the region allowing highs to warm back into the 50s for the weekend.
1106 AM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough from James Bay, southwest to the Eastern Pacific. The cooler waters near the island chain should limit the effective BL fuel for these cells as they near the island chain. High pressure centered over the western Atlantic to the north of Bermuda will continue to shift eastward today and tonight as a cold front advances through the eastern United States and into the Florida peninsula. Across the Keys coastal waters, fresh to strong easterly breezes early this morning will diminish quickly later today, with light breezes tonight becoming gentle to moderate from the northeast on Friday, then fresh on Friday night, as the front stalls over central Florida and strong high pressure moves across the Ohio Valley.
1028 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 The last of the rain associated with the cold front is slowly pushing across northern MS this morning. /issued 325 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ Latest MSAS analysis places a surface cold front roughly from Camden, TN to Marianna, MS and back to Elaine, AR. The cold front and accompanying precipitation will continue east this morning with winds turning to the N/NW as the front passes. Expect cooler temperatures this afternoon, low to mid 50s, thanks to north winds. Dry and cool conditions continue on Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the west.