Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 654 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020/ Skies have become cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 60s. This activity is north of a warm front which currently extends across central Alabama and into extreme north Louisiana. The warm front will continue to move north today with more showers and thunderstorms developing later this morning. Some of these thunderstorms that develop north of the warm front could have large hail with them. Low pressure is expected to move along this warm front reaching western Arkansas by this afternoon and then moving out of west Tennessee by this evening. As this low passes through the region, there will be an increased risk of damaging winds as well as large hail.
Wednesday looks unseasonably warm as the upper level ridge over northern Mexico expands into Texas.
208 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front has lifted north of KHSV and KMSL to near K4A6 at 18Z. The warm front will likely lift north of our TN counties if this occurs. The cold front will shift south on Wednesday with low clouds lingering through midday before stronger heating lifts/dissipates them.
300 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Low pressure will pass south of the region tonight into Wednesday with its associated precipitation moving through our area.
Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through Wednesday as upper level trough moves over the region.
255 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky this afternoon. A chilly rain will affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. Temperatures will be just cold enough for wet snow to fall on the highest ridges in southern PA and coat the ground with an inch or two of snow. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
243 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A trough will swing through the region through mid-week. Beyond Wednesday, the remainder of the week will be mostly dry as the primary forcing associated with an upper low will remain south of the area.
Temperatures across the island chain remain in the lower to mid 80s with a southeast wind around 10 mph.
This low pressure system is the driving force behind the current weather across the Ohio Valley. A warm front lies southeast from the low through northeast Georgia. The warm front will only reach as far north as Tennessee before upper flow pushes the system eastward.
Expect coverage of strength of these showers to increase this afternoon, as lapse rates steepen both due to diurnal surface heating and cooler air aloft moving over Western Washington. A cool upper trough will move through the area today, bringing showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Warmer temperatures expected over the next several days. Upglide over the boundary continues to force scattered showers and a few storms across NW AR and NE OK, however the more significant convection remains tied to the low level jet axis and these strong to severe storms will expand into northeast OK over the next couple of hours with mainly a large hail threat. This signal presents itself in much of the high-res data and at least some potential for dense fog may exist. Otherwise will see warmer temperatures Wed/Thu as mid level heights build.
1142 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with warm front through the western Dakotas. but as with yesterday, models continue to have a hard time capturing the low level drying. Cold front settles in across the area tonight. Upper level flow becomes southwesterly as positive tilt trof sets up across the western CONUS.
An area of high pressure remains stretched from the Atlantic into the northern gulf coast resulting in a humid and warm south to southwest flow locally. Aloft an upper ridge is nudging into the area from Mexico and the western gulf while an upper disturbance is traversing the mid Mississippi Valley. A few isolated showers will be possible through the afternoon and tonight from interior east Texas across CenLA as the weak front draws closer and upper disturbance passes to the north, however the front's forward progress will grind to a halt as it encounters the ridge.
Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal norms this afternoon through Wed afternoon with highs topping out in the low to middle 80s today, followed by lows falling to the middle 60s for most inland areas and near 70 along the immediate coast tonight and early Wed, then followed by highs in the lower to middle 80s for most locations on Wed.
Showers/storms could linger for a few hours across southeast Kansas this morning, otherwise today should be dry with some residual clouds in the wake of the overnight activity possibly keeping some areas a bit cooler.
1110 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Low pressure was over NW Arkansas this morning and a warm front extending to the east southeast across the southern states in northwest AL southeast to around Atlanta GA. Locally heavy rainfall is being enhanced north of the warm front over southeast Tennessee with an inch or more falling near CHA in the past 2 hours. Expect localized heavy rainfall to continue next several hours north of the warm front which will slowly shift north through mid afternoon. There should be a decrease in rain chances this afternoon south before convection redevelops farther west ahead of lower pressure moving east and along warm front. Location of the strongest storms will depend on how far north the warm front advances north.
329 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Mild conditions for Wednesday - Weakening cold front moves in for Wednesday night - Storm storm possible for the weekend. Much of the area stands a decent chance to reach 50 degrees as the 925 mb thermal ridge of 9 deg C moves in.
1029 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 The fog/low clouds over the CWA are still expected to gradually erode from west to east as trof/front pushes east today and winds turn to westerly. This process will take the most time over the far eastern CWA and that is where we are forecasting the lowest temperatures today. For example, the GFS is all snow while the NAM has a couple hours of rain before a brief period of freezing rain (no accumulation is expected if any falls at all) and then snow.
1239 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 The fog/low clouds over the CWA are still expected to gradually erode from west to east as trof/front pushes east today and winds turn to westerly. This process will take the most time over the far eastern CWA and that is where we are forecasting the lowest temperatures today. For example, the GFS is all snow while the NAM has a couple hours of rain before a brief period of freezing rain (no accumulation is expected if any falls at all) and then snow.
137 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Expect a dry afternoon to give way to areas of rain tonight, with warmer temperature followed by more rain to close the week. That trough is timed for an early Wednesday passage across the region, but in the meantime, sufficient dynamics combined with a fairly deep moisture supple will result in areas of rain developing on its van with better chances focused from Pittsburgh south and east where mid level frontogenesis will be briefly enhanced under positive vorticity advection. Cold advection in the wake of the departing system will likely support a change to snow over the higher elevation, but accumulation potential is not good given thermal profiles, warm ground, and again, system progression. Residual showers will end on Wednesday morning as the aforementioned trough digs eastward.
1029 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 The fog/low clouds over the CWA is still expected to gradually erode from west to east as trof/front pushes east today and winds turn to westerly. This process will take the most time over the far eastern CWA and that is where we are forecasting the lowest temperatures today. For example, the GFS is all snow while the NAM has a couple hours of rain before a brief period of freezing rain (no accumulation is expected if any falls at all) and then snow.
Meanwhile south of the Lower Keys, radar shows a remnant land breeze boundary from Cuba is moving north-northwest with some light showers along the leading edge. Current temperatures are in the lower 80s with a wind from the southeast around 10 mph. Weak high pressure will develop and push in from the western Caribbean.
247 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 A warm front will move slowly north across the region today and tonight, providing showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A warm front will continue to gradually lift northward through the forecast area tonight while a cold front approaches from the west. An upper level trough exits The Midlands and CSRA Wednesday morning.
Visible satellite shows a rather flat/anemic cumulus field though near and north of the Houston terminals and may have to amend to remove the VCSH mention by 21Z if subsidence from upper ridging over Texas is too much for convection to overcome.
251 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 High pressure will briefly build over the area through this afternoon.
204 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern U. With the high overhead through the weekend, expect light/lake breeze driven winds during the aftn and calm winds at night inland with a light breeze continuing along the Great Lakes shores. Light winds and clear skies with the high could allow mins on Sat morning to drop into the upper 30s to near 40F at favored cold spots inland. With plenty of sunshine daytime highs Fri and Sat should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s and into the low to mid 80s on Sun. Winds will remain below 20 knots through the forecast period as high pressure remains over the area into Tue.
345 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 As of 20z, mid and upper level ridging continues to position itself across the central Plains. Comfortable conditions are expected for Friday with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s and LOW HUMIDITY! As we transition into the weekend the mid and upper level ridge looks to amplify across the central and northern Rockies, placing the plains within northerly to northwest flow. Very comfortable temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs in the lower 80s.
A humid airmass across the area this afternoon with dewpoints in the low 70s. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates that the ridge axis has now pushed to the south with a trough to the northwest across the MId-Mississippi River Valley. A cold front will track southeastward across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys as a closed upper low moves southeastward across the Great Lakes region.
Weak disturbances aloft will crest the mid- level ridge axis over the northern Plains before diving southeast through into the mid MS Valley. Precipitation associated with these features will largely remain confined to the High Plains. A large-scale pattern characterized by ridging over western North America with downstream troughing in the east is expected to persist through the extended range. Similar to the short-term period, the best precipitation chances will be over the High Plains.
155 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Surface cold front crosses our region bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Finally beginning to see some clearing across northwest New York in the wake of a pre- frontal trough passage which brought a round of light showers to the region this morning. These showers are exiting east of the Connecticut River Valley right now, and for the remainder of the day the focus will be on the potential for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing as instability increases from west to east ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold air advection behind departing cold front will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side for Friday with max temps only in the mid 70s. We'll be locked in with light cold air advection and high pressure building into the North Country.
249 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front over central Missouri and central Illinois this afternoon is heading southeast. As of mid-afternoon, scattered storms were developing across the Lower Ohio Valley. A second smaller round of storms is likely late tonight along the actual cold front as it moves southeast across the Ohio River and southeast Missouri.
NOAM pattern continues, with well developed and continuing to mature Great Lakes centered troughing bookended by equally robust western NOAM and far west Atlantic ridge axes. sliding slowly south with time as Lake Superior flexes its muscle on the low level wind environment. Skinny cape profiles also noted up through the favored hail growth region, although simple low wet bulb freezing levels (sub 7kft) sure supports some small hail potential.
A strong U/L ridge over the western Atlantic will begin to retrograde and gradually build over the Florida peninsula. Strong upper level ridging will remain fixed over the Desert Southwest to the south of a belt of fast westerly flow over the northern tier of the CONUS.
It will be a little cooler to end the week as onshore flow increases, extending the marine influence farther inland. As the low clouds spread inland, patches of dense fog are likely over higher coastal terrain. Yesterday's high temps reached the upper 90s in the high deserts, into triple digits across portions of the inland valleys and as high as 119 degrees F at Palm Springs. The high pressure ridge responsible for the hot weather is expected to dominate the pattern for the foreseeable future with only minor adjustments at times. Temperatures are expected to increase for today and Wednesday as the upper high now centered over AZ expands westward and heights rise over SoCal. Temperatures lower by a few degrees on Thu and Fri (even inland) as the high weakens slightly and heights fall over SoCal.
Forecast challenges in the short term focus on the high temperatures today followed by possible strong thunderstorm outflow winds tonight. Attendant cold front will bring gusty winds back around from the NW on Wednesday - likely raising the need for another Lake Wind Advisory.
Persistent upper-level trough will slowly drift eastward tonight and Tuesday. Another round of showers will accompany the trough mainly affecting our southwestern and southern zones. High pressure moving into the west during the morning will work to erode the cloud cover and bring an end to precipitation for most areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday due in large part to the cooler air aloft and cloud cover. Quiet weather is expected for Tuesday night with a weak ridge axis over the forecast area.
A somewhat zonal flow pattern aloft as we find ourselves on the southern side of a broad upper trough anchored over eastern Canada.
With broader wind field expected to the northwest of the potential tropical cyclone three, adjusted wind speeds up slightly over the Gulf waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms with gusty winds could develop this afternoon over the higher terrain, mainly from Flagstaff eastward.
/Issued 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ Upper level ridge to over the southwest U.
256 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure continues to bring much above average temperatures this week with records possible through Wednesday. High pressure across the Sierra and western Nevada will keep temperatures well above normal and also chances for thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. The leading edge of this little jet segment appears to be associated with a weakness in the upper level ridge.
High pressure will be East of the region this period, as tropical system moves North/Northwest across the Gulf. Wednesday: The subtropical ridge axis is forecast to extend from the western Atlantic across central Florida, inching northward into the region overnight. An upper trough will be across the northeast, with a shear axis extending from PTC#3 northeastward across central Georgia. PTC#3 is likely to be south of the Texas/Louisiana border on Wednesday, with an inverted trough still extending towards the FL/GA border. 3 inches, with very high freezing levels around 16 kft. Showers and storms will end in the evening, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
A 925mb thermal ridge will nudge into the southwest part of the state with weak warm air advection across the region.
Looks like the cold front is already southeast of the local area as of 23z with winds generally from the north. The surface-850mb ridge axis will be bridged from OK east through the mid south and TN valleys on Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will be able to warm nicely on Tuesday in the subsidence region of this ridge, with highs well into the 80s.
301 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the region over the next few days.
An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop in the vicinity of the triple- point with more spotty shower development possible along the warm front as it drifts northward before stalling out just south of Interstate-80. A cold front is forecast to move across the area late afternoon into the evening hours.
A weakening front will move over the area today for possibly light rain or drizzle north of Salem this morning, and slightly cooler afternoon temperatures.
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Active weather pattern through the week as we first continue to deal with persistent upper level low and associated troughs rotating about it.
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Warmer mid level temperatures will be drifting around the ridge over eastern Colorado today. There is some high cloudiness wrapping around the ridge, but this should mainly be thin so not too much impact. On Wednesday, the ridge will be centered over Arizona/New Mexico with a light to moderate northwesterly flow over the cwa.
230 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A cold front will move across overnight, followed by a trough of low pressure moving across Tuesday through Tuesday night.
425 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Upper troughing firmly in place from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. 00z sounding at CWPL in northern Ontario showed increasing h7-h5 moisture beneath the upper trough in wake of the sfc front so plan is to see increasing showers around daybreak sliding across mainly northwest to central Upper Michigan.
118 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper trough will provide more comfortable conditions through midweek.
457 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the eastern CONUS and a ridge building across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure resides across the area with temperatures at 3am in the 50s to lower 60s. A weak surface trof will slide across eastern WY, with light winds becoming westerly by the afternoon. By Wednesday night, trailing mid level boundary combined with the low level jet/strong warm advection should produce another round of nocturnal convection across western SD, shifting east through the night.
158 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper level trough will continue over the region through mid week. High pressure will build into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
325 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A strong ridge will remain centered over AZ and NM today through Wednesday. A very minor disturbance will travel over the top of the ridge today and affect northern CO and UT.
Upper level ridge continues to bring warm unstable air to SE Oregon and SW Idaho.
Currently, Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 is in the central Gulf and is forecast to move northwest to north, away from South Florida. Even so, some of the moisture around the area of low pressure is still moving across the area, mainly as isolated to scattered showers. By the end of the week, the high will be strong enough, with enough dry air moving in, to bring a drier weekend for South Florida.
410 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Local radars are detecting a 10 to 15 mile swath of showers migrating through the Lower Keys and the adjacent gulf and Straits of Florida, with only a few showers elsewhere. Under mostly cloudy skies and southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge extends into the Florida peninsula with a developing area of low pressure located in the south central Gulf of Mexico, north of the Yucatan peninsula.
424 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front will drop into the area tonight and lift back north Wednesday night.
240 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A cold front will track east across the mountains this evening, then stall over the Carolinas tonight. A lead cold front, and relatively deep convergence axis that extends through around 850 mb per proximity RAOB and regional VWP data, is roughly aligned with the wsw to ene-oriented band of training convection now over the nrn NC Piedmont. The cold front progressing into the region late this evening is expected to stall over central NC tonight and persist during the day Tue, amidst broad cyclonic flow aloft and rich moisture (PWAT ~2. 50" and dewpoints in the lower 60s) is progged to be in place during the day Tue. With cloud cover and convection, expect highs in the lower 80s across most of central NC.
Upper level ridging will give way to more zonal flow with the slightest hint of a trough by tonight.
346 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front linger across the region today.
522 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper trough will provide more comfortable conditions through midweek.
Will maintain some low pops this area until 12z then dry as high pressure builds into the region. Associated cold front reaches the western fa mid/late afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies are expected with in the upper 70s along the Atlantic coast to the lower to mid 70s across the interior. As the low in the Gulf approaches the northern or NW Gulf coast low level flow will become SSE/S with deeper moisture returning over the east central Florida.
147 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A cold front will track east across the mountains this evening, then stall over the Carolinas tonight. A lead cold front, and relatively deep convergence axis that extends through around 850 mb per proximity RAOB and regional VWP data, is roughly aligned with the wsw to ene-oriented band of training convection now over the nrn NC Piedmont. The cold front progressing into the region late this evening is expected to stall over central NC tonight and persist during the day Tue, amidst broad cyclonic flow aloft and rich moisture (PWAT ~2. 50" and dewpoints in the lower 60s) is progged to be in place during the day Tue. With cloud cover and convection, expect highs in the lower 80s across most of central NC.
The cold front will finally cross the area from west to east. The final trough pushes through the area Wednesday with more scattered showers. though these will be more focused in the higher terrain.
502 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
315 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Northwest flow prevailing over the fcst region this morning as upper ridging continues to take shape over the western U. and a closed low spins over eastern Canada. Main item of concern today will focus on a weak backdoor cold front that will begin sliding south into our fcst area by afternoon as high pressure builds east across the upper Midwest. As for temperatures, compressed thermal ridging in advance of the front will lead to a pretty warm day across the area, with upper 80s to lower 90s expected areawide. Aforementioned front will actually start lifting back north as as a warm front overnight as upper Midwest high pressure slides east and leeside low pressure develops over the northern High Plains.
Strong and warm upper ridging remains the dominant weather feature through Wednesday. There will be just enough moisture in place for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain late Tuesday but coverage should be isolated as there will be quite a bit of warm, dry air aloft.