Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Best guess for the winds is that there should be enough pressure gradient to last past the original ending time of the wind advisory, thus the advisory was extended until 03Z, and expanded slightly in area, with the highest winds most likely east of the MS River. In the wake of this system will be clearing skies and much cooler temps/dewpoints for Fri and Sat as two areas of high surface pressure move through our region. By Sun, a southwesterly low level flow will develop on the backside of the high as the flow aloft goes more zonal. Winds will become very gusty from the north once a strong cold front passes through.
/issued 530 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Quebec, back through the Ohio Valley, then into West Tennessee and Mississippi. Short term models and CAMs indicate the showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will push east of the Mid-South by by early this evening with convection moving into Middle Tennessee and Alabama as early as late this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front will persist into early evening and the current Wind Advisory may be cancelled earlier if winds subside before 9 PM CST. Much colder and drier air will filter in behind the cold front with lows tonight dropping back into the 20s. Temperatures will be cooler in the 40s on Friday.
A cold front trailing south of the low was moving across the greater Huntsville forecast area. Winds west of the cold front have become NW and increased into the 20-30kt range with some gusts over 40kt. The cold front that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms on Thursday will have pushed off to the east by Friday. The post frontal airmass is much cooler and drier and combined with strong CAA out of the north, Friday will be quite chilly. Temperatures top out in the lower 40s, a 30 degree 24 hour temperature difference.
The last line of showers and storms is about to exit southeast portions of the area, and the cold front isn't far behind. The cold front will move through the region with a shift to strong northerly winds behind it. Conditions will be much cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sustained llvl northerly flow will be persistent as a high pressure ridge over central Texas begins to build towards the east. As the strengthening ridge builds from the west, a warm airmass will begin to increase high temperatures over the weekend into the work week.
618 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A strong cold front will continue to push southeast across the forecast area this evening. The cold front will move through the region with a shift to strong northerly winds behind it. Conditions will be much cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sustained llvl northerly flow will be persistent as a high pressure ridge over central Texas begins to build towards the east. As the strengthening ridge builds from the west, a warm airmass will begin to increase high temperatures over the weekend into the work week.
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon but temperatures will remain near freezing across the Panhandles. Tomorrow will be a much warmer day, with highs in the 50s and lights winds during the afternoon hours. With temperatures warming well above freezing tomorrow, any remaining snow will be gone by tomorrow afternoon. With some snowpack remaining just north of the CWA combined with northerly winds, highs across the northern Panhandles may just get above freezing this afternoon. As the central axis of the upper level trough lifts north and east tonight into tomorrow. West to northwest flow aloft returns to the Southern High Plains as the trough progresses east.
The upper ridge off the coast will move slightly inland on Friday for continued dry conditions and a few degrees of warming, with highs in the 50s across the lower valleys.
High pressure continues to remain in control through the period with mostly sunny skies outside of the Eastern Highlands and isolated areas of low stratus and patchy fog.
825 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 Westerly winds have increased in/near the Front Range with strengthening lee trough and cross mountain flow. We've increased the snow chances for the high country but any accumulation appears to be quite limited by the shallow moisture and stable airmass - most likely an inch or less. High temperatures mostly never made it to the freezing mark across the plains this afternoon. The low level winds will be a mix of normal diurnal patterns and northwesterlies over the the eastern plains both tonight and Friday. For temperatures, there is some warming overnight, with Friday's highs 5-8 C warmer than today's readings. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible at times due to a lee side trough over northeast Colorado.
1013 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 20z surface analysis had low in central Alberta with warm front into central NE. Low will push warm front through the CWA with windy southwest low level flow.
300 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 A cold front will move offshore this morning. High pressure will follow the front this weekend. Temperatures have risen into the lower 70s in the FAY to RDU areas ahead of the front at 200 AM. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Mild high pressure will precede the front with mostly sunny skies expected through the day.
Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the low 20s in the afternoon.
1028 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate northwest flow aloft across region, as last night's system continues to translate across the High Plains, and more eastern Pacific energy translates across the Northern Tier. GOES satellite data is also indicating snow cover across the Palmer Dvd and across the far southeast plains generally south of the Highway 50 Corridor to the Raton Mesa. Induced lee troughing across the plains this evening will lead to developing westerly downslope after midnight and expected warming temperatures for areas west of the I-25 Corridor into early Friday morning. Warming aloft and mostly sunny skies will lead to highs warming back to near seasonal norms, mainly in the 50s across the plains and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.
1037 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 (This evening through Friday) Cooler and breezier conditions will persist throughout the rest of this afternoon and into the evening before winds begin to diminish and overnight temperatures drop into the 20s across the area.
Post cold front clouds will keep cigs MVFR overnight, except mainly IFR at CSV. Friday winds will be north, mostly under 10KT as high pressure moves into the area.
Louis metropolitan area, areas of freezing drizzle are being observed within the dry slot of the low where cloud ice is lessened. Temperatures will stay below freezing and any precipitation on the roads that are not treated will freeze over. Temperatures tonight will drop rapidly as winds calm, skies clear, and high pressure settles into the bi-state area.
With an slowly building ridge into the area and ~4k ft inversion height temps hovering between -18 and -21C, lake effect snow showers have persisted across the northwest wind snow belts. Upper air pattern consists of a deep trough over the central U. with the trough axis across the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the western U. The trough remains in the Rockies 12z Thu and then moves out into the plains. Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will continue to taper off from the west overnight as a high pressure ridge builds in from the west. Heavy freezing spray also returns Friday mid-day. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LSZ249>251-266-267.
315 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Friday and Saturday will feature much colder weather in wake of a cold front. Light snow will be possible on Saturday, especially for the I-80 corridor and the higher elevations of the Alleghenies.
927 PM PST Thu Feb 17 2022 Offshore flow will prevail through Saturday, leading to warmer than normal conditions.
Forecast soundings from the NAM, GFS, RAP, and HRRR all indicate a period immediately following the cold front with 50+ kt winds at the top of an unstable boundary layer.
244 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Breezy southwest winds will develop across central IL today, before switching northwest behind a dry cold frontal passage tonight. 08z surface map placed a high pressure ridge from the central Plains up through the western Great Lakes. The light winds will be short lived as the ridge quickly sinks southeast this morning and the next cold front drops into the upper Midwest. The cold front crosses the region during the evening, veering winds northwest with similar gusts for continued drifting snow into the overnight hours. Colder weather is forecast Saturday as Arctic high pressure shifts overhead by afternoon. Lighter winds will be accompanied by highs several degrees below normal in the low/mid 20s for snow covered areas, to lower 30s farther south.
220 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 A cold front will move offshore this morning. High pressure will follow the front this weekend. Temperatures have risen into the lower 70s in the FAY to RDU areas ahead of the front at 200 AM. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Mild high pressure will precede the front with mostly sunny skies expected through the day.
Throughout the day, the high pressure center will slowly push eastward. This will allow temperatures to fall below freezing again, although they generally should be a few degrees warmer than Friday night.
242 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Prior to 12z this morning, we will continue to see low clouds blanket the region as the cold front proceeds further eastward. Temperatures have already dropped to 28-32F, and will continue to fall into the low to mid 20s before sunrise.
259 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Recent water vapor imagery showing the mean trough axis from the Great Lakes into north Texas with a compact wave digging behind across northern North Dakota.
Water vapor satellite imagery clearly showing an upper trough working its way south through Idaho this evening.
A cold front trailing south of the low was moving across the greater Huntsville forecast area. Winds west of the cold front have become NW and increased into the 20-30kt range with some gusts over 40kt.
Best guess for the winds is that there should be enough pressure gradient to last past the original ending time of the wind advisory, thus the advisory was extended until 03Z, and expanded slightly in area, with the highest winds most likely east of the MS River. In the wake of this system will be clearing skies and much cooler temps/dewpoints for Fri and Sat as two areas of high surface pressure move through our region. By Sun, a southwesterly low level flow will develop on the backside of the high as the flow aloft goes more zonal.
340 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the Ohio Valley through this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring the chance for a few snow showers tonight before high pressure and dry weather return on Saturday. We are also seeing a bit of a fetch off of Lake Michigan but this should cut off through the day as the low level flow begins to back around a bit more to the west. Highs on Saturday will again be cool, with afternoon highs ranging from only the lower 20s across the northwest to the low to mid 30s in the south. High pressure will work to the east of the region Saturday night.
1105 PM MST Thu Feb 17 2022 Westerly winds have increased in/near the Front Range with strengthening lee trough and cross mountain flow. We've increased the snow chances for the high country but any accumulation appears to be quite limited by the shallow moisture and stable airmass - most likely an inch or less. High temperatures mostly never made it to the freezing mark across the plains this afternoon. The low level winds will be a mix of normal diurnal patterns and northwesterlies over the the eastern plains both tonight and Friday. For temperatures, there is some warming overnight, with Friday's highs 5-8 C warmer than today's readings. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible at times due to a lee side trough over northeast Colorado.
Cooler temperatures will return today with gradual clearing. Today Currently early this morning, mid/upper troughing is approaching the region from the west with the downstream jet just north of the region. A surface cold front is also moving through the region, which is providing increasingly northwest flow and CAA. Some light accumulations are possible in the highest peaks, but most places are not likely to see more than a dusting. Tonight Heading into tonight, ~1,035mb high pressure will settle in to our northwest with upper convergence helping to promote subsidence.
1235 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Crossing low pressure has brought rain and windy weather to the area tonight. Midnight Update: The center of the trough axis and sfc cold front has pushed through most of the CWA by just after midnight, with the Allegheny Mountains and area just NW of that remaining. Flooding and high wind concerns should subside in the predawn of Friday as the low pressure exits east and dry, cold air advances. Snow chances will be limited to the ridges late Friday morning due to upsloping before subsiding as winds shift from the west/southwest and high pressure builds.
239 AM MST Fri Feb 18 2022 A cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area early this morning with a mix of rain and snow showers. High pressure tonight will diminish the winds and bring dry weather to the region. The front moves back east Saturday morning as a warm front and brings a much warmer day to the area. A cold front drops south Saturday Night and brings accumulating snow with it.
This wave will exit the area to the south by morning with accumulations of generally less than an inch on the higher peaks. The current forecast calls for more light snow showers across the Elkhead, Park and Gore Mountains in Route County associated with this next trough with up to another inch possible at the highest elevations.
Prior to 12z this morning, we will continue to see low clouds blanket the region as the cold front proceeds further eastward. Temperatures have already dropped to 28-32F, and will continue to fall into the low to mid 20s before sunrise.
/Issued 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022/ /Overnight through Saturday/ Skies continue to clear across the region as high pressure settles into North Texas behind this mornings cold front. Temperatures have fallen into the 20s and lower 30s and will bottom out in the low to mid 20s areawide by morning. Clear skies and light winds will result in another cold night tonight with most areas at or below freezing. Saturday should feature light southerly winds and warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
701 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Satellite analysis shows the H5/H7 upper low situated over the International Border in the northern Red River Valley. Additionally, the existing snow pack will be another source of blowable snow, especially in areas where winds gust the highest and break the upper crust of our snow pack.
Additionally, the existing snow pack will be another source of blowable snow, especially in areas where winds gust the highest and break the upper crust of our snow pack.
A few areas east of Highway 83 could see highs in the low 60's. Wind speed will reach 10- 20 mph with gusts as high as 30mph, with the higher speeds favoring north of I-70. Tomorrow, most of the area should be sunny and warmer with temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's. However, locales near and east of Highway 83 could be cooler if the cloud cover from the previous night lingers and as an area of high pressure moves south just east of the area. As this high pressure moves southeast, lower surface pressure is forecasted to follow right behind with pressure potentially dropping 10mb or more in 6 hours. While RFW criteria remains unlikely as dewpoints rise slightly, fires could still be problematic with the higher sustained winds and gusts.
A few very light snow showers should linger over the higher terrain of northwest Montana today and overnight. Late Saturday the Pacific cold front will move southward out of British Columbia causing widespread precipitation. The valleys will mainly be impacted by rain or a rain/snow mix, while the higher terrain receives decent snowfall.
/issued 350 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022/ The cold front that brought yesterday's widespread rainfall to the Mid-South has moved well to the east of the area. The upper-level trough has maintained a strong positive tilt, with the trough axis still to our west, extending from the OH valley back to west TX. As the anticyclone settles over the area tonight, winds will become light and the dry air mass will allow temperatures to fall to 25-30F in most areas.
Winds will become southwest and increase later today ahead of a cold front. Drifting snow should temporarily end this morning before winds increase again from the southwest ahead of a cold front.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Elongated 500 mb troffing will continue sagging southwards towards the Gulf Coast States today and early Saturday. This 500 mb pattern will then likely shift towards a more ridging pattern later in the day Sat. The cooler airmass that built in behind the dry fropa late Thurs Night will shift pretty quickly eastwards on Sat allowing for the temps to moderate pretty quickly.
841 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the Ohio Valley through this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring the chance for a few snow showers tonight before high pressure and dry weather return on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will again be cool, with afternoon highs ranging from only the lower 20s across the northwest to the low to mid 30s in the south. High pressure will work to the east of the region Saturday night.
350 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 The cold front that brought yesterday's widespread rainfall to the Mid-South has moved well to the east of the area. The upper-level trough has maintained a strong positive tilt, with the trough axis still to our west, extending from the OH valley back to west TX. As the anticyclone settles over the area tonight, winds will become light and the dry air mass will allow temperatures to fall to 25-30F in most areas.
322 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Quiescent weather is expected today as the mid/upper-level troughing attenuates from the departing jet streak over the southeastern U. At the surface, the 1030 mb anticyclone will continue to expand as it drifts eastward into the ARKLATEX region. Winds will gradually transition to the southwest later this morning, remaining light (around 10 mph or less) by this afternoon as the mean flow aloft continues to de-amplify amidst diffuse surface lee troughing.
950 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 A cold front will move offshore during the early afternoon. High pressure will follow the front this weekend. Cold front, which is currently approaching the Triangle, is moving at a slightly slower pace than expected. Otherwise, isolated shower chances will be possible until the cold front exits the coastal plain counties ~18z. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Mild high pressure will precede the front with mostly sunny skies expected through the day.
648 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 A cold front moves across the region this morning with a few light snow showers in its wake.
Strong southwesterly flow will build ahead of the low pressure system that will swing through the state this afternoon and evening. Snow is expected ahead of the cold front that will move through late this afternoon and into this evening from northwest to southeast. Expect the highest winds within the snow and within a few hours of the front passing through. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front and slowly become lighter into Saturday as high pressure moves in for Saturday afternoon.
529 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 An arctic cold front near the Canadian border north of MT and ND this morning will back into Pine Ridge and ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and retreat east Saturday afternoon. The HREF, RAP and HRRR suggest moisture convergence around the Black Hills will set off isolated showers across Pine Ridge this evening and a low POP is in place across that area. The temperature forecast today and Saturday leans toward the 75 percentile of the NBM but is marked down a few degrees for the cold front this afternoon and mid and high level cloud cover which could affect the heating cycle across wrn and ncntl Nebraska today and Saturday.
232 AM MST Fri Feb 18 2022 Light snow is expected today across parts of the plains and the central Montana mountains in association with a weak cold front moving south before dissipating.
Light snow is expected today across parts of the plains and the central Montana mountains in association with a weak cold front moving south before dissipating.
These northerly winds will help keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Expect warmer weather for Saturday as winds become onshore and partly cloudy skies prevail.
409 AM PST Fri Feb 18 2022 An upper level low pressure system centered more than 100NM west of the SW Oregon coast this morning will continue moving southward during the day today.
349 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 An arctic cold front near the Canadian border north of MT and ND this morning will back into Pine Ridge and ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and retreat east Saturday afternoon. The HREF, RAP and HRRR suggest moisture convergence around the Black Hills will set off isolated showers across Pine Ridge this evening and a low POP is in place across that area. The temperature forecast today and Saturday leans toward the 75 percentile of the NBM but is marked down a few degrees for the cold front this afternoon and mid and high level cloud cover which could affect the heating cycle across wrn and ncntl Nebraska today and Saturday.
707 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Friday and Saturday will be much cooler. Light snow will be possible on Saturday, especially for the I-80 corridor and the higher elevations of the Alleghenies.
An approaching trough will increase moisture over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and will produce areas of gusty to breezy wind on Saturday. As the system progresses Saturday night, few showers anticipated to reach into the West Central Mountains of Idaho and the higher terrain of Baker County in Oregon.
Northwest flow aloft remains in place across the region through the short term, allowing for plenty of sun and warmer conditions. Expect highs in the 40s for the high valleys today, and in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the plains.
High pressure will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend, keeping a dry forecast in place. Low temperatures will drop into the 20s by Saturday morning, so remember to bundle up if heading outdoors! Temperatures will rise into the lower 50s by Saturday afternoon under sunny skies and northerly winds.
By Saturday, warmer than average temperatures are expected most areas.
DunnPrevious Discussion: /Overnight through Saturday/ Skies continue to clear across the region as high pressure settles into North Texas behind this mornings cold front. Temperatures have fallen into the 20s and lower 30s and will bottom out in the low to mid 20s areawide by morning. Clear skies and light winds will result in another cold night tonight with most areas at or below freezing. Saturday should feature light southerly winds and warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
434 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Friday and Saturday will feature much colder weather in wake of a cold front. Light snow will be possible on Saturday, especially for the I-80 corridor and the higher elevations of the Alleghenies.
154 AM PST Fri Feb 18 2022 High pressure brings dry and mild conditions with mainly light winds into the start of weekend.