Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Cooler weather is on tap for today across the area, as a reinforcement of cold air moves into the area early this morning. Temperatures today will range from the lower 40s north to lower 50s southwest in Crockett County. Behind the cold front tonight, temperatures will again be cooler than normal, with lows falling into the 20s for most of the area.
Cold high pressure extending through the plains and centered at 1045 mb over North Dakota will only slowly advance east maintaining an unseasonably cold weekend for the area with hard freeze temperatures incoming for Sunday morning for central Louisiana and into interior southeast Texas.
For Today and Sunday, relatively benign weather is expected as a ridge of high pressure aloft over the Great Basin region attempts to nudge eastward. A few places may see a dusting to up to a half inch of snow, especially near the Pine Ridge. Temperatures will be even warmer on Sunday ahead of the arctic front, with afternoon readings in the mid 40's to low 50's.
VFR conditions anticipated through the period as high pressure builds. Very quiet short term period with high pressure building over the region. Seeing some low temperatures in the northeast this morning dropping below freezing. With reinforcing high pressure ridge moving in this morning will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon than what we saw yesterday with most locations topping out in the 50s. Clear skies tonight will result in another potential for freezing temperatures, again northern tier of counties will be most likely. High temperatures Sunday a bit warmer as flow gradually becomes onshore once again.
About 20 degrees cooler this morning at 8 am compared to 24 hrs ago at JAX trailing the cold front last night. Some locations across SE GA including Homerville and Baxley reached freezing this hour due to strong, but somewhat shallow cold air advection per the 12Z JAX raob which indicated NW flow just above the surface, then WSW flow upward from about 920 mb and a steep inversion. As the cold front settles farther south, this low level ridge axis will build across the area into the afternoon, which will gradually relax the gradient and bring decreasing winds into the afternoon and evening hours. NNW winds 15-20 kts will prevail through tonight with exercise caution conditions for outer waters tonight, then advisory conditions expected to return Sunday as onshore flow increases trailed wake trough.
So with skies becoming mostly cloudy we will end up slightly cooler than yesterday with the abundant sunshine. Sunday should see a bit more sunshine and temperatures ranging in the 40s for a warmer day, but still below average for this time of the year.
646 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 The storm system will exit the region this morning and high pressure will begin to build into the area.
The weak warm front over Western Washington will lift north of the area today, as an upper ridge moves into the Pacific Northwest.
510 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 A sunny but cold Saturday today as an area of high pressure builds across the Midwest. And then a bit warmer on Sunday as a warm front builds in from the west, highs in the single digits above zero. On the synoptic scale northwest flow has returned to the Upper Midwest as a strong mid/upper level ridge has developed over the west coast with a broad longwave ridge across the Great Lakes region. The clipper will ride along a warm front boundary approaching from the west, leading to warm air advecting aiding the large-scale lift.
High pressure will build into the area for today and Sunday.
Arctic high pressure remains entrenched over the upper midwest with generally fair skies and temperatures mostly in the single digits.
Snow accumulation rates will be diminishing from southwest to northeast early this morning as the current event wraps up and low pressure exits east.
347 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure over the western U. highly amplified ridge is still forecast to be aligned over far western NOAM with ginormous troughs upstream and downstream.
Arctic air and light snow returns Sunday into Sunday night as a fast- moving cold front moves south across the area. A few spotty light freezing rain showers may be possible in lower elevations adjacent to the mountains, but are not expected to cause any significant issues.
Temperatures this morning were in upper teens to the lower 20s. Temperatures will be cool today with highs only topping out in the lower 20s. High pressure will build into the region tonight. Dry and cold weather is expected to continue on Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 20s.
Southeast Arizona is currently under clear skies with northwesterly flow aloft on the east side of a ridge axis near the west coast. While temperatures will be similar to yesterday for eastern areas, from Tucson westward where downsloping will aid in the warming process, expect highs several degrees warmer with a few record highs in jeopardy.
953 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure will begin to build toward the region from the west today. The high will then settle over the region tonight, then moving east on Sunday.
Sunday morning will see some light snow across the area with the highest chances in NW MN with 850mb WAA and 500mb PVA as developing clipper system pushes southeast across the area.
However, have still kept some low PoPs as this weak trof moves thru the area. Mdls continue to be in good agreement with an upper trof digging into the region with an associated cdfnt dropping thru the area. However, with winds becoming sly, Sun shud be slightly warmer compared to today. Tilly High pressure centered over the northern Plains will build southeastward into our area today. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: High pressure centered over the northern Plains will build southeastward into our area today.
High pressure across the region will keep winds light through the period. /Issued 305 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Arctic high pressure continues to sag gradually south across the area.
309 AM PST Sat Jan 13 2018 Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected through the weekend with high pressure over northeast California and western Nevada.
Sunday morning will see some light snow across the area with the highest chances in NW MN with 850mb WAA and 500mb Potential Vorticity Advection as developing clipper system pushes southeast across the area.
555 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 The storm system will exit the region this morning and high pressure will begin to build into the area.
The snow will develop as a result of increasing WAA ahead of a cold front.
The high will stay in control of the area today, and the associated north winds will keep the area on the cool side with temperatures warming into the the upper 40s to lower 50s. As the high moves off to the east tonight and tomorrow, winds will come around to the east overnight (several hours of below freezing temperatures) and the southeast during the day on Sunday (high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s).
Parts of Nw Montana along the continental divide continue to receive some snow and blowing snow in a few areas, especially in the highway corridor from Marias Pass to West Glacier. Some light snow or freezing rain is translating to some icy roads in the mission valley along highway 93 and also impacting points west along highway 28 near hot springs. Precipitation will taper off during the afternoon in response to a ridge of high pressure building over the region.
For tonight, a ridge will move in, promoting lake effect to shift N through the night.
/issued 242 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Oklahoma will remain in strong northerly flow aloft while the long-wave trough and low pressure remain positioned from Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes into the southern plains.
420 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 (Today and Tonight) Cooler weather is on tap for today across the area, as a reinforcement of cold air moves into the area early this morning. Temperatures today will range from the lower 40s north to lower 50s southwest in Crockett County. Behind the cold front tonight, temperatures will again be cooler than normal, with lows falling into the 20s for most of the area.
442 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018 Near Omega block setup over NOAM will eventually breakdown in the period as massive ridging over the western Atlantic subsides. Arctic trough over the eastern CONUS will linger a few more days with backside impulses supporting a wavering baroclinic zone over the region. Favored NW flow upslope areas in the northern Black Hills can expect 2-4 inches of snow today, with the higher amounts generally above 6 kft. As the upper wave exits and ice prod layer is lost aloft, upslope forcing may support a period of freezing drizzle over parts of the northern BH late tonight into Sunday morning, esp as WAA revs up ahead of the next wave. Temps will vary sig across the FA today as WAA spreads into and remains confined to the higher terrain of NE WY and BH.
For tonight, the approaching Arctic high pressure will become centered over the Ohio Valley, extending southward across TN.
953 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 A broad mid/upper-level trough resides across much of the central and eastern part of the country this morning, with plenty of dry air at these levels across the region. At the surface, a cold front is now southeast of the state, with a low-level northwest wind in its wake and a secondary boundary moving through the peninsula. Some shallow cold air advection is also indicated in the sounding, with a northwest flow in the lower layers that becomes southwest above 850 mb.
930 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Reinforcing secondary dry cold front will move across east central Florida into the afternoon hours with extensive post frontal stratocu deck sliding southeast across the region into early afternoon. Otherwise dry and cooler weather expected.
The HRRR is showing the low stratus dissipating thru the morning hours but is showing it staying around the KPUB area the longest and finally has it dissipating between 18 and 19Z. Temp forecast for today over the southeast plains is a little challenging and think that leaning toward the cooler model guidance values is the way to go.
High pressure traveling across the region will ensure clear skies. The high will stay in control of the area today, and the associated north winds will keep the area on the cool side with temperatures warming into the the upper 40s to lower 50s. As the high moves off to the east tonight and tomorrow, winds will come around to the east overnight (several hours of below freezing temperatures) and the southeast during the day on Sunday (high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s).
1015 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Cold high pressure will build overhead through Sunday with gusty northwesterly winds.
Weak moisture advection will keep immediate coastal areas about 5- 10F warmer than areas west of the I-95 Corridor. Conditions expected to deteriorate further overnight as the ridge axis nudges east and tightens the lcl pgrad.
541 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
540 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites early Sunday morning with gusty north winds for several hours following the frontal passage.
The 07/00Z KGGW upper air sounding shows a warm nose with temperatures above freezing extending from just above the surface to approximately 4k ft above the surface. With surface temperatures already below freezing at Glasgow and areas north, there is a chance of freezing rain with this precipitation that pushes through. Even though the strong warm from from the west looked very impressive in the models leading up to today, it has become evident that the warmest surface temperatures only easily reached the higher elevations and hill peaks across our area. Conversely, the lower river valley locations were much more difficult to warm up today, especially the Milk River valley.
Expect increasing cloud cover today in advance of an approaching trough. This trough will pass through the Four Corners and bring a chance for showers later today through Sunday morning to the northern third of Arizona.
There will be areas of MVFR/IFR conditions across far western Oklahoma after 06Z through at least 14Z before winds veer quicker to southwest/westerly ahead of cold front.
Else, some light showers may occur Sunday afternoon at all terminals as a cold front zips south ahead of northerly winds around 20 knots. The trough axis will pass right over the South Plains and models have been consistent with it deepening as it moves east. The trough will push a cold front through around 18Z. With the trough directly overhead to provide lift, and moisture available at mid and low levels, a few showers will be possible Sunday afternoon. Precip chances do not stay around long with the trough quickly moving off to the east and the column drying out.
The latest surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered to out northwest across central illinois. This area of high pressure will continue to move east across the Ohio Valley tonight. GIven the similar setup This high pressure will slide east and eventually setup across the Virginia and North Carolina coast line Sunday afternoon. This will allow a little more advection of relatively warmer air into the area. The temperatures will still remain below normal with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 30s for most locations. Then we switch to a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain throughout the morning and early afternoon from west to east.
This is in advance of a fast moving upper level trough which will move across the area tonight and early Sunday morning bringing some snow and cooler temperatures. The upper level trough will rapidly move southeast of the area for Sunday. It will be cooler, but still around seasonal norms with highs in the 40's.
Ahead of this cloud deck temperatures in the Lower Tennessee River Valley have already dropped into the upper teens and low 20s. Overnight lows fall into the low to upper 20s as high pressure over the eastern CONUS slides towards the Atlantic. Temperatures will quickly warm into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon as low level southerly flow advects much warmer Gulf air into the area. Tomorrow night temperatures will remain above freezing for the entire Midsouth, ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.
As of now, it looks like surface temperatures will be above freezing when the precipitation begins across the vast majority of the area. However, there is the potential that a few locations across northwest Arkansas could see a brief period of freezing drizzle early Sunday morning before temperatures warm above freezing.
This will shift our winds more southerly as the CAD pattern begins to breakdown, allowing moisture to push into the area ahead of this trough.
637 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 High pressure over the area will allow VFR conditions through the period at all sites.
936 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 High clouds continue to stream into the region from the west and northwest ahead of a digging trough of low pressure currently moving towards the Four Corners region of the country. As we go through the night, this low level moisture should continue to increase from west to east and should encompass at least the eastern half of our region by sunrise. Spotty showers may also develop on Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front, which will quickly race into the area just after this TAF period concludes at 08/00Z. SE winds will remain at or below 10 kts overnight, increasing on Sunday with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front with higher wind gusts near 20-25 kts possible during Sunday afternoon.
BUFKIT/Top down methodology points to freezing rain, with a 2-5C warm layer, though wet bulb processes may cool this so we get more of a wet snow. Air temps will warm, but the ground temps means we will still have ice even if the air temp passes the freezing mark.
1041 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 Currently - A broad high pressure system centered over Ohio is bringing increasing northeast breezes across the Keys. Cool dry air continues to spread across the area, and temperatures are in the lower 60s with dew points in the upper 40s. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned high pressure system will become centered on the Mid Atlantic states by Sunday morning. High pressure system moving southeastwards into the Mid Atlantic region will tighten further the already steep pressure gradient across Florida Keys waters.
While winds will slowly subside across much of the area this evening, they will remain gusty near and along the Buffalo Ridge with some gusts near 30-35 mph overnight. Forecast soundings indicate the most likely precip type of very light freezing rain/drizzle or sleet. Expect high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal or in the low 30s to near 40 across south central SD. The warmer temperatures will continue for the first half of the upcoming week with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above normal, or generally the 30s to mid 40s. Generally kept temperatures on the lower end of guidance in most areas given the snow cover in place.
738 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
Enhanced southeasterly flow as Panhandle pressures lower in response to an approaching upper trough.
With temperatures around freezing should see a rain/snow mix turning to mostly light snow as temps cool overnight.
The eastern CONUS trough will continue deamplifying overnight with flow becoming mostly zonal by morning. At the surface, the ridge center will move over the Mid-Atlantic shifting winds more easterly by morning.
Meanwhile, the GFS is a degree or two cooler aloft. With temps warming aloft and surface temps hovering at or below freezing, an icy mix of snow and freezing rain will become prevalent across nearly the entire area from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. The exception will be south of I-70 where surface temps will rise a degree or two above freezing and thus the threat for icing is less.
It doesn't appear warm enough for freezing rain, so will keep this mention out of the forecast.
1047 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
636 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 A pressure ridge will extend along the East Coast through Sunday.
620 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
This low level wind flow will bring low clouds back into the forecast area, mainly Sunday afternoon. The strong high pressure will maintain the cold temperatures across the region for another night, and keep the area dry.
Low level southeasterly flow is expected to gradually increase tonight into Sunday as low pressure deepens in advance of the short wave trough moving out of the Rockies. Temperatures will warm into the 70s across the region sunday, except at the immediate coast due to the fog from cooler shelf waters. The short wave trough will dive southeast across Texas Sunday night.
Overnight lows fall into the low to upper 20s as high pressure over the eastern CONUS slides towards the Atlantic. Temperatures will quickly warm into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon as low level southerly flow advects much warmer Gulf air into the area. Tomorrow night temperatures will remain above freezing for the entire Midsouth, ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.
The exception would be over the northern and northeast portion of the forecast area where some light snow or perhaps patchy freezing drizzle could occur Sunday afternoon into early evening.
Forecast soundings are saturated in the low levels, with moisture in the mid levels eroding during the day in the ice crystal growth zone. Thus, it looks like mainly light freezing drizzle is possible, with the best chances in the southern counties Sunday afternoon into the evening.
939 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The deep upper trough over the northeastern U.
Have added a dense freezing fog advisory for these areas. There are areas of freezing fog elsewhere, particularly mountain passes to include Monida, Tom Cat, Malad, and Sweetzer summits.
317 PM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 An upper level trof will be moving southeastward acrs CO tonight and early Sun. This system will bring snow to the mountains with areas along the Continental Divide expected to see the highest accumulations, with generally 4 to 8 inches over the higher areas. By midday Sun the upper trof will be south and east of the area and most if not all pcpn will end, although there could be some lingering light showers over some of the mtn areas in the early afternoon.
533 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 The potential for freezing rain on Sunday remains likely, with the primary impact being in the form of slick roadways and walkways Sunday morning to afternoon. Deepening warm advection should transition freezing rain to liquid rain by the late morning to early afternoon across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, though freezing rain will continue over central to northeastern Missouri through the early to mid- afternoon. While there is confidence in the potential for freezing rain and slick roadways Sunday morning and afternoon, precise timing for the transition to liquid rain remains somewhat uncertain.
A weak cold front will move through Sunday evening with only slightly cooler temperatures in its wake.
At 2 PM CST, area under arctic high pressure moving into Illinois with light east winds and sunny skies with temperatures still very cold in the 5 to 10 degrees above zero range.
Not a lot of changes from the previous forecast as we still have a very small threat of freezing drizzle in our southeast from warm-air advection type overrunning, and I actually reduced the area for this compared to the previous forecast. Soundings have a significant dry layer in our southeast, so if precip occurs in the far southeast, it looks like freezing drizzle is the precip type. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s.
903 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 High pressure with a very cold and dry air mass continues over the eastern Tennessee Valley tonight.
The stalled front contributing to this rather abrupt temperature gradient will mix out a bit before gradually moving north as a warm front tonight and early tomorrow. This will aid in keeping temperatures several degrees warmer than previous nights. As heights fall ahead of an incoming trough this evening, low-level winds will be on the increase. helping to advect warmer temperatures and moisture into the region. Depending on morning temperatures, northwest Arkansas may see a period of patchy freezing drizzle before temperatures begin to warm above freezing.
537 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain is expected today with a crossing cold front. Maintained categorical POPs for today as the upper trough's associated cold front approaches and crosses the area, with more rain expected. A capping inversion should prevent the low level jet's strong winds from reaching the surface, though after FROPA gusts should increase to 25-35 mph with cold advection and mixing. The cold front should complete it's passage into Central PA by early evening, with rain ending. Maintained a brief chance of snow showers for the higher terrain E-SE of PIT, though little precip is expected to remain by the time cold air arrives. Variably cloudy conditions are expected through the rest of the period in cold advection and broad upper troughing.
A very stable upper flow pattern will then remain in place through the rest of this forecast cycle with a deep eastern US trough and western ridge.
The main story for this week will be the strong ridge of high pressure building over the western U.
It is still possible some of the higher amounts could end up on the North Dakota side but this reflects some of the forecast challenge today. A large upper level ridge will remain established over the far western U. S throughout the long range period as a trough continues over the eastern two thirds of the country. Additionally, temperature forecast uncertainty will depend on where exactly the boundary sets up between warmer temperatures to the southwest and colder temperatures to the northeast.