Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper trough will move across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians through the period. The cold air behind the frontal passage will allow the rain showers to change to snow showers across the higher terrain first this evening, and then into the Plateau overnight. Due to low-level instability, orographic lift, and deformation zone wrapping around upper low, a prolonged period of snow showers are expected across the area through Wednesday evening. Have issued a winter storm warning for the higher elevations of southwest Virginia, such as High Knob, and the far eastern Tennessee Mountains. Places like the higher terrain of the Smokys will likely see the greatest snow accumulations. Light snow accumulations are also possible over the lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northern Plateau.
413 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Cold front making its way offshore this morning bringing with it dry and cold air advection.
302 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
An effective surface dryline extended from near Natural Bridge in Winston County southwest to near Vernon in Lamar County. Skies will be VFR through 12 to 15Z then we will begin to see ceilings drop to MVFR as the upper low begins to swing through. Once the upper low works out of the area will finally see some clearing.
444 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. Forecasted on the lower end of model guidance as min temps could approach zero at a few of the typical cold spots over the western interior. Building 5h heights ahead of an advancing upper ridge from the west will yield more sunshine Thu and Fri as temps push back toward normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s north to lower 40s south.
1209 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 127 PM CDT Breezy east-northeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period as low pressure tracks eastward well south of the area and high pressure remains dominate over Ontario tonight into Tuesday. This northeasterly flow will transport a colder airmass over the area for Tuesday resulting in cooler high temperatures area-wide. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 40s well inland, but likely only in the mid to upper 30s closer to the lake under partly cloudy skies. Conditions will feel even cooler than these values, however, as winds continue to gust up to 25 to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler to near normal through the extended.
425 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 The morning GOES 16 satellite imagery indicates extensive bands of post-frontal stratocu which continue to spill SE into the region, in wake of the cold front which has pushed into the Nrn Gulf and far SE LA/coastal MS. A portion of the 30-40kt NWrly LLJ behind the attendant H850 low will mix down later this morning, and gradually weaken during the day as this low pulls farther away, but should be sufficient enough such that gusty NW winds of 15-20mph with gusts to 30 mph will again be possible over much of the area.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Starting to sound like a broken record, but southern extent of broad and strong Canadian high pressure continues to dominate our weather. Northeast flow around this high resulting in a bit of a winter chill across the northwoods, helped along by cloud-free skies. May even see a few flurries as top of shallow moist layer extends into the low end of the dendritic growth layer. Slight modification of the low level environment and a bit shallower moisture profile may mute this response some, but still could see some very shallow strato-cu and a few flurries.
350 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Main forecast challenge in the short term comes today into this evening as a mid/upper level level low moves east across the lower Oh Valley. The low will likely generate an area of light precipitation beginning over southeast MO this morning. However, surface temperatures are likely to stay a couple to a several degrees above freezing, and much of the precip will be light and fall during the daylight hours.
Weak short wave trough which resulted in showers and a few storms this afternoon for the Nature Coast has exited the GA/FL coast. Meanwhile a strong deep low pressure system is moving up the Ohio Valley. trailing a short wave trough with an associated cold front across the Gulf Coastal states and the adjacent Gulf waters. The S/W trough and front will be approaching the coast around or the northern areas during the morning and the southern areas in the afternoon.
340 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 (Today and Tonight) High pressure at the surface this afternoon will result in quiet weather for today and tonight. Then, temperatures overnight will drop to around the low to mid 40s.
A low pressure trough was located south from the low which has brought the elevated winds, then a cold front was noted over eastern OK, which will bring cooler air to the area. Do expect some light showers to affect northern AR the rest of today and into Tuesday associated with the low pressure.
A freeze warning for the entire mid state tonight as temps are expected to be at or below freezing, especially in low lying locations. Temps are expected to warm quickly under a March sun on Wed, as clouds clear, with highs continuing to be seasonably cool, but ranging from the lower 40s Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 50s near the TN River Valley Region.
Also since the ground temperature is above freezing and the snowfall rate has not been high enough to overcome that, the snow that has fallen has already melted or is too wet for the wind to blow around. Temperatures will cool into the lower and middle 20s. Wednesday, a warming trend will start to take over the area as high pressure moves into the high plains.
Otherwise, periods of mid- high clouds will affect rest of CWA as upstream inverted trof weakens as it moves east and runs into short wave ridging and drier air. Colder low level air has settled into southern WI so daytime temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
102 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 127 PM CDT Breezy east-northeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period as low pressure tracks eastward well south of the area and high pressure remains dominate over Ontario tonight into Tuesday. This northeasterly flow will transport a colder airmass over the area for Tuesday resulting in cooler high temperatures area-wide. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 40s well inland, but likely only in the mid to upper 30s closer to the lake under partly cloudy skies. Conditions will feel even cooler than these values, however, as winds continue to gust up to 25 to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler to near normal through the extended.
Dewpoint temperatures remain in the lower 70s. Much of the Florida Peninsula remains in the warm sector of a complex and evolving low pressure system, currently centered over the Smoky Mountains. A developing cold front extends southwestward from the low center to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will advanced steadily southeastward today, likely reaching the Florida Keys and adjacent waters tonight. A three-day period of cooler, drier, breezier weather looks probable as air trajectories become rooted in cool, continental air. Air mass modification will accelerate over the weekend as the weakening high pressure cell migrates over the western subtropical North Atlantic. Small craft should exercise caution later today in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Bay, as southwest breezes freshen ahead of an approaching trough and cold front.
A weak low pressure system will move into oregon from the west overnight. Some moisture was associated with the low and some showers are possible in and near central Oregon before moving east tomorrow morning.
Highs over the lower elevations should be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Highest PoP's in the high country are late Wednesday. Though we are carrying some decent PoPs in the high country, we dont expect there to be much accumulation or notable widespread impacts. Warm end to the work week as a ridge of high pressure will be in control over the region.
Snow totals are still a bit uncertain as temps remain above freezing and snow continues to melt as it falls. Latest models still maintain a baroclinic zone across the CWA that moves slowly east overnight, just a head of advancing mid level trof. Low pop/low qpf, but still the potential for light freezing drizzle or freezing rain Tuesday night as we lose the moisture in the DGZ between 600 and 700mb, and are left with just moisture below 800mb. The 500mb trough will finally edge to our east late Tuesday afternoon, with the large ridge sliding in from the western U.
458 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough over Quebec and a ridge through northwest Ontario.
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Eastern Iowa and western Illinois remain in the band of strong subsidence, between the low pressure circulation to the southeast, and the inverted trof forcing located along the Missouri River. 2 AM winds remain in the 15 to 18 kt sustained range, with some gusts into the lower 20s east. Highs will be limited to the lower 40s in most locations, with some upper 30s likely north. Dry weather will continue through tonight, as the inverted trof remains west of the local area, and with it, any low level saturation. Tonight, under thin cloud cover and light winds, lows should dip to the lower to mid 20s.
337 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Dry and cool week ahead as the main jet axis to the south of the region with split flow aloft and a thermal trough locked overhead. This high will usher in cool and dry air through the coming days as flow wavers from northeasterly to northerly. Difluent flow aloft and developing area of pressure falls will stretch and enhance the trailing trough through the Ohio Valley. For the latter half of the week, upper level ridge will begin to build into the Midwest, but persistent trough will hold over the Great Lakes. This will bring highs into the low 40s.
322 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A warm front will lift northward and into the area today ahead of approaching low pressure. As the low moves into the region this afternoon, thunderstorms can be expected, potentially severe.
This along with clear skies will allow temps to drop to below freezing for most areas on the caprock with temps averaging in the mid 30s across the Rolling Plains. Wednesday will start a warming trend as an upper level ridge slowly pushes eastward across the Rockies gradually increasing thickness heights.
122 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. Temperatures this week do not look very warm though and airmass over the region stays quite dry with dwpnts well below freezing so despite the dry weather does not look like we will melt much snow.
GIven the clear conditions expected around daybreak Tuesday and the forecast winds between 4 am and 7 am Tuesday will favor overnight lows at or a little cooler than the coldest guidance for tonight.
353 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
A potent short wave trough digs into the Se U. A pre-frontal trough will move across the area this afternoon and most likely produce a band of strong to possibly severe storms across the area from late this morning into the afternoon. Skies will clear tonight as a cooler and drier air mass moves in.
A storm system will makes it way to the east today but lingering clouds and cooler temperatures will follow in its wake.
Elsewhere around the area, after some morning sunshine, skies will become mostly cloudy this afternoon with high temperatures only in the lower 40s.
A weak cold front will move thru PEQ by 07Z with N-NW mostly 10kts or less thru the night.
400 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A warm front will lift northward and into the area today ahead of approaching low pressure. As the low moves into the region this afternoon, thunderstorms can be expected, potentially severe.
Winds will continue to veer more NW this morning in wake of a cold front.
512 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A warm front will lift northward and into the area today ahead of approaching low pressure. As the low moves into the region this afternoon, thunderstorms can be expected, potentially severe.
As next upper trough moves toward the area, increasing boundary layer jet will clear out the fog/low clouds with convection developing by late morning/afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 61 36 49 / 100 50 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 58 35 41 / 90 70 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 50 57 34 43 / 90 80 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 57 35 40 / 90 90 80 70 TN.
After a Pacific front brought very dry air and breezy west/northwest winds yesterday, a secondary cold front with northerly winds has moved through the region. Dewpoints will be higher today and afternoon humidity values will be around 20 to 30 percent with the lowest values near the Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, highs will be a bit cooler, in the 70s for much of the area.
Current temperatures are milder (5-15 degrees warmer) compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the lower 20s in the mountain valleys to the upper 40s to mid 50s across the Central Valley. The low along 140W is beginning to slowly shift east. Snow levels will high limiting accumulating snow to just the highest elevations.
Upper air and satellite data showing the main upper level low pressure system which brought the initial preciptiation to the area last night now set up over southern MO, while the ongoing north- south orientated band of mainly snow is being driven by an upper- level trough axis working its way through from west-east. The highest snowfall reports we received this morning of 3-6 inches were mainly concentrated in portions of Dawson/Phelps/Gosper/Kearney counties. At the surface, the CWA currently sits between the main low over the MO/AR border and high pressure building in from the northern High Plains, keeping winds NNWrly. For the rest of this afternoon/tonight, this upper level trough axis will continue to gradually slide east across the region, taking the precipitation chances along.
Deep closed low will move from southern Missouri to northern Kentucky by 12Z Tues. Cooler temperatures will begin to enter NW areas later tonight into Tuesday with just a chance of some rain or snow tuesday afternoon in far SE parts of the area. Trough will linger across the area into Weds as stronger wave moves through and eventually ejects to east coast. Exact impacts for the Weds morning commute remain to be seen as ground/road temps may still be near/above freezing.
Cold front gradually moving eastward into the area with a few light showers advancing east northeast over the southern zones. Mid level height falls with the eastward passage of an upper level trof axis today results in downstream surface pressure falls over the Carolinas. Much cooler air filters in tonight.
A western ridge begins to build Wednesday night with mid-level winds turning to the west over ND and associated warm air advection increasing.
736 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will nose in from the southwest and the deep upper level low over the Great Lakes will lift out to the north.
724 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak dry cold front will move through from the north late today.
535 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure southeast of the forecast area, with a warm front extending south from low pressure over southwest Canada and into central MT. Upper level analysis continues to show fast northwest flow across the region between long wave trough over the eastern US and ridging off the west coast. Some milder air will build into the area as warm front tracks east, and west to southwest winds develop. A cold front will arrive early Wednesday and move southeast across the CWA during the day. Snowfall will mostly be limited to the higher elevations of northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far northwest SD. The higher elevations of the northern Black Hills and WY Black Hills will likely see an inch or two of snowfall later tonight into Wednesday morning.
A cold front/baroclinic trough extended from VA through south TX, but was stalling and will have no impacts on our local weather.
A surface cold front is still set to begin its decent south into the region by Wednesday morning, bringing increased cloud cover throughout the day, a slight chance of rain and snow to the northern mountains, and increased winds along the Snake River Plain, especially south and east of Mountain Home. Tonight will be warmer than this night, and the warming will continue in southern areas Wednesday. Northern areas will cool Wednesday afternoon as a surface cold front comes in from the north.
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 The synoptic pattern early this morning features fairly zonal flow over the area as the trough that has plagued the region recently slowly deamplifies. Given the dry low- level airmass in place, the wet bulb temperature is below zero throughout much of the atmospheric column except the lowest few hundred feet.
826 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will move from overhead to the Northeast this afternoon. The airmass will remain dry with temperatures into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon.
Warm front lifts across eastern Montana this morning with downslope winds bringing slightly warmer temperatures. Showers will begin to spread into the region by late afternoon as the low approaches. Broad trof over North America lingers into the weekend. The orientation will change with trof digging down the west coast by the weekend with the breakdown of the Pacific ridge.
Dry, cool, and breezy today as high pressure builds in over the area.
The low track takes it from Bismarck to Aberdeen and then loops around to the northeast. Best mid level omega develops in the mid/late morning as the mid level trough deepens and becomes more negatively tilted. Snow coverage should be spotty but is the major P-Type supported by BUFKIT initially, with warm advection in the low levels and daytime heating resulting in a deep enough layer to melt any snow that continues to fall, and thus we are looking at little if any accumulation.
High pressure will hold over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week, with generally east to northeast winds continuing to run no more than 15 knots. An inverted trough approaching Florida from the east this weekend will turn winds to a more northerly direction, but winds and seas should remain below headline criteria.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 45 65 54 / 0 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 42 65 52 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 42 64 52 / 0 0 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 39 64 47 / 0 0 10 10.
Very dry airmass remains in place through the period as high pressure remains the focal point of our weather over the next 24 hours. Weak high pressure continues in control of the local weather pattern. Early morning NW/N winds around 5-10 knots will veer to N/NE thru the day, then the east into tonight as high pressure across the area is absorbed by ridging farther north.
The forecast remains consistent in keeping the highest rain chances from southeast OK into western AR primarily from late afternoon through the overnight hours.
Cool weather will continue this week under weak low pressure aloft.
SHRA are moving across the TAF sites as an 80kt 3h jet passes to the south and the assocd trof will move east quickly clearing the CWFA by early afternoon. /issued 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017/ Precipitation is beginning to develop across far west Texas and southern New Mexico as a southern stream trough and upper jet approach the forecast area. Decent lift associated with the trough and jet above the cooler air will generate scattered showers this morning. In addition the rain could mix with some light sleet and or light snow across the highest of elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as temperatures approach freezing in those areas.
1221 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak cold front slips south across the region this afternoon with high pressure moving off the New England Coast Wednesday.
1230 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak dry cold front will move through from the north late today.
Most models are suggesting potential for 70+ knot winds at mountain top, spreading down over the higher ridges of the Front Range Foothills overnight. Early in the forecast period will be mild and windy over the mountain ridges and warm and breezy across the plains. The main core of the upper jet will be over Wyoming, but the subsident, right exit region of the jet will move over the northern Colorado mountain ridges late this evening and remain over northern Colorado through Wednesday night. The High Wind Watch will remain in effect through midnight Wednesday night when model cross sections show the amplified mountain wave losing its structure. The bigger story on the plains may be the temperatures climbing into the low 70s and humidities dropping into the teens.
A low-amplitude mid-upper level trough will push through the Plains today and into the Mississippi Valley later tonight. Would have little impacts with boundary layer temps above the freezing mark.
925 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak dry cold front will move through from the north late today.
Very respectable warmup expected Wednesday, as near-zonal flow induces development of lee trof under a clear sky, producing high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above climo.
824 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure early this week. Weak cold front continues to push through forecast area, with a stratus deck trailing it. These clouds should gradually dissipate/move out from SW to NE this morning as high pressure moves in at the surface. For the most part, have temperatures above freezing before any precipitation begins to fall. Southwesterly flow and warm front will bring plenty of moisture to the region on Wednesday.
Accumulations should stay minor with the highest accumulations up to a 1/2 inch possible along and north of highway 96. Wednesday will have the return of southwest winds which will usher in warmer 850 mb air.
1258 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure through late tonight. Moisture will quickly increase from the southwest, aided by developing llj, as upper trough deepens across central U. With warm moist air aloft, and drier cooler air near the surface, precipitation could start out as a wintry mix across parts of southeast Ohio. Temps will continue to warm nicely tomorrow across the region as low pressure across the plains lifts northeast, with all areas changing over to rain shortly after 12Z. Southwesterly flow and warm front will bring plenty of moisture to the region on Wednesday.
1051 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will settle over the area through tonight as an approaching cold front stalls to the northwest. Readings should warm to highs in the lower to mid 70s, which would actually be a couple of degrees above normal. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the mid to upper 70s and lows Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 50s.
711 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak but dry cold front has moved into east Tennessee early this morning.