Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northwest winds will quickly slacken this evening as sfc anticyclone approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. (Wednesday) Models are hinting at some midlevel clouds trying to spill southeastward into CWA around NE periphery of builing mid/upper level ridge. did go a couple of degrees warmer for tomorrow's highs than today for most locations due to building heights/thicknesses aloft and low-level WAA behind departing sfc anticyclone.
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A weak mid level low over the great basin situated south of the ridge axis will migrate into the region Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s are being observed behind the front in Central Tennessee, with even lower dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s. That cooler and drier air will advect southward overnight tonight with lows expected to be quite pleasant in the lower 60s, with a few mid 50s possible in the valley locations of Northeast Alabama by daybreak on Wednesday.
BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CASCADES. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
Thunderstorms have formed over the higher terrain early this afternoon. For Wednesday, a weak upper level trough will move from the Great Basin into northwest Colorado.
thickest in nw MN as mid level warm advection moves in as 500 mb ridge builds northeast. Warmer Wednesday with highs 75 to 80 in E ND & RRV and 70-75 NW MN.
Not much change to the previous forecast as we remain under the influence of weak upper ridging the next few days, keeping most areas dry and temperatures near normal.
Perhaps warmer mid level temperatures are acting as a capping inversion, holding off thunderstorm initiation for a few hours. 850/700 mb theta-e ridges extend north to south across far southeast Wyoming, and this is the likely area for where we expect most thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon and propagate slowly eastward around 10 mph through the early evening hours.
Aside from the core of the urban heat island of the Twin Cities, which should remain in the lower 50s, most of southern/central MN and western WI will drop into the upper 40s tonight.
The mid-level ridge remains in place across the region and should squash the convection entering the Panhandle well before it reaches the CWA. Under mostly clear skies, expect lows tonight mainly in the lower to mid 60s. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Upper ridging will suppress shower and thunderstorms development into the coming weekend.
Cold front has moved south of Middle Tennessee this afternoon with much drier air consisting of dewpoints in the 50s and even upper 40s now in place across the area. This dry air mass will allow for much cooler temperatures the next 2 days, with lows in the 50s tonight and Wednesday night, and highs only in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday.
Continued warm and mostly dry weather conditions are forecast on Wednesday under a high pressure ridge across the western states.
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 High pressure sliding southward from Canada will settle over the region this evening bringing dry conditions and slightly below temperatures tonight. Winds on Wednesday will switch around to the south as the center of the high shifts east of the area.
High pressure has moved into far East Texas this evening and ridged into SE Texas.
Cold front is pushing through North Mississippi. Temps range from the lower 80s along the KY/MO borders to the lower 90s south of the front across parts of North Mississippi.
More dense clouds further centered in cyclone's interior over Great Lakes and parts adjacent, should, for the most part, stay just to the north and east, even as that energy is modeled to pinwheel base of trof over middle and upper Ohio valley tonight-tmrw. In the interim, broad upper ridging/height rise occuring over High Plains thru the mid week.
Some moderation in temperatures can be expected Wednesday as high pressure aloft weakens.
Warmer in the mountains and deserts Wednesday with an elevated Night and morning marine layer clouds will spread over coastal areas into the western valleys each night this week, then retreat back to near the coast each afternoon. Mostly clear and warm elsewhere under high pressure aloft.
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A cold front is banked against the Rockies today, which allowed a cooler day in the upper 70s to around 80 for highs. The NAM advertises near 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE along the axis, which may be a bit on the high side. As the upper ridge begins to dominate our weather while we will be squarely in the warm sector, expect warmer temperatures for highs in the 80s, but chance of precip will be suppressed as the instability axis will be long gone.
Temperatures across much of the area climbed into the lower 90s. Dew points have dropped across the northern half of the area with readings in the lower and middle 60s. High pressure moving across the eastern half of the country will pump drier air into the area for the next 48 hours or so.
There are a few clouds developing along and just ahead of approaching dry cold front now moving into N GA. This cold front is not expected to bring any more precipitation to the area just usher in a drier cooler airmass from the Northern Plains. This cooler airmass will take low temps tonight down into the 50s across N GA and into the 60s across Central.
A series of systems will bring cooler temperatures and showers to Washington and Oregon for the rest of the week.
On the big picture, long wave ridging continues working its way eastward across the Rockies at this time. however weak upper level troughing remains stretched across south and east Texas.
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 With weak upper-level ridging aloft, VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast period.
Subtle height falls associated with a mid to upper level low and WAA around 700 MB should support brief scattered showers across the NW/W late tonight (likely after 4Z), where sufficient moisture is expected.
A cold front moving southeastward across northern New York and Vermont tonight will usher in much cooler air and result in a few lingering showers during the overnight hours.
727 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected until high pressure builds on Wednesday. Any storms that do form are likely to contain hail given the aforementioned parameters, and wind gusts to about 25 mph can be expected as the low level lapse rates steepen under the cooling aloft. Sub average near-term temperature can be expected under the broad trough, with readings forecast using consensus-short guidance. The upper trough axis is then forecast to shift quickly eastward as Wednesday progresses, so the previously forecast dry and clearing trend was maintained for the afternoon.
1032 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Low pressure will remain stalled to our northwest overnight then slowly move to our northeast on Wednesday.
High pressure will continue to settle over the area through the next few days.
1055 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A quiet evening ahead as a ridge of high pressure gradually breaks down and shifts east. Much of the mid-longer range portion of the forecast will be dominated by strong upper level ridge and associated summer-like temperatures and humidity.
Overall cooler temps today with light northerly winds and readings near 80 degrees.
A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather hot and dry for the next few days.
Building high pressure will keep dry weather over central Indiana through Wednesday night.
952 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 An upper-level trough will build overhead tonight through Wednesday. High pressure will build overhead for late in the week before a series of disturbances impact the area during the weekend. Lows generally in the 50s except in the higher elevations (U40s) and near the waters (L60s). Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s, possibly holding in the 60s near the PA border, and even in the 50s at the highest elevations.
High pressure builds into the region tonight into Wednesday with dry and mainly quiet weather expected. High pressure will be in control through much of the day on Wednesday with mostly to partly sunny skies expected. A warm front then edges into the region from the southwest with 850 mb moisture transport increasing into the region along with increasing 900 to 800 frontogenesis.
Under mostly clear skies, expect lows tonight mainly in the lower to mid 60s. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Upper ridging will suppress shower and thunderstorms development into the coming weekend.
The area is under good surface ridging and subsidence, as noted with PW's in 00z soundings across the region around or less than an inch. Only slightly lowered lows closer to cooler MOS values. /issued 413 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ A weak front pushing into the area from the north will help to reinforce the dry and well-mixed airmass while ridging aloft helps to maintain hotter daytime temperatures.
Secondly, additional storms may develop in association with the southern extent of the closed low over the central Rockies this evening. The majority of these will likely stay north of the area but the high-resolution models are also generating some spotty/light precipitation across the northern zones through sunrise. /issued 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ The upper level ridge axis over New Mexico will flatten slightly but still bulge out across the Texas south plains region tonight and Wednesday.
The ridge of high pressure will shift east through the Northland Wednesday, bringing light southwest or southerly flow to most areas by the afternoon, and ushering in warmer air into the region. Leaned on the warmer models because the humidity will still be fairly low, such as the GFS. While most areas should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s, it will be cooler in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the immediate North Shore because of the light onshore flow. Wednesday night finds upper level ridging building toward the forecast area from the West.
840 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Cooling trend through this week as high pressure weakens. Cyclonic flow now over the region will continue and cooler temperatures are expected thanks to a low pressure area still located well off the west coast.
949 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A trough of low pressure remains in place across the area in the wake of TS Colin. A trough of low pressure will linger across the waters through the end of the week with showers and thunderstorms possible through the period.
High pressure building into the area today led to dry air and cooler temperatures under clear skies. This high pressure will slide across the area tonight and to the east on Wednesday and will be the main driver of weather tomorrow. With high pressure driving the forecast the best chance for a forecast bust would be in the temperature realm. Calmer winds tonight, coupled with cooler H85 temps, temperatures will likely reach the low 50s and possibly the mid 40s, especially in the favored river valleys. Tomorrow, the center of the high migrates to the east and west to southwest sfc flow returns. Slightly warmer temperatures return to the area along with boundary layer moisture.
/ISSUED / An upper level ridge over the Western CONUS and a longwave trof over the Eastern CONUS with northwesterly flow over the Central United States between the two pressure systems was the synoptic setup this afternoon. the ridge of high pressure is to become established over the Central United States with southerly surface winds returning to Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. latest model solutions continue to indicate the upper ridge shifting east of the CWA and breaking down as a wave moves onto the West Coast and into the Plains.
There are some showers and weaker thunderstorms in Baker County, but nothing significant over the Cornet Windy Ridge burn scar.
No changes required other than to blend to observed trends through 23 UTC as a quiet overnight is expected with return flow ahead of a warm front across eastern Montana that will become stationary. The current weather scenario has a dominant high pressure system from the prairie provinces of Canada south thorough the Dakotas into Nebraska. To the west, a warm front extends from Alberta through eastern Montana into Wyoming. Very warm air across the high plains of Montana/Wyoming will move into North Dakota as the warm front moves east Wednesday creating an elevated mixed layer above 5000 feet that shows up well in the NAM BUFKIT soundings from Bismarck to Minot and east. The weather pattern aloft will feature an upper low over the Pacific Northwest and a resultant downstream ridge over the central and northern plains.
/Tonight Through Tuesday/ High pressure will provide another pleasant and cool evening tonight before the thermal ridge builds into the region later this week. The 500mb ridge begins to build into the central U.
/For the 00z TAFs/ Similar to last evening, convection has developed over the higher terrain in northeast New Mexico, mainly focused near Johnson Mesa and Capulin. /Issued 449 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ For tonight, the next round of showers and tstms currently forming over the higher terrain of sern CO and ern NM will slide sewd into at leasxt the nwrn half of fcst area through the evening hours based on current speed and trajectory, assuming much of the precipitation holds together.
704 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Low pressure will remain stalled to our northwest tonight then slowly move to our northeast on Wednesday.
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Winds have gone light and variable as high pressure settles over Missouri. We may see a few high clouds spreading eastward from storms over the High Plains earlier today, otherwise clear skies will remain over the region through the night. Tomorrow will be warmer and storm-free as upper level ridge build over the region.
/Issued 449 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ For tonight, the next round of showers and tstms currently forming over the higher terrain of sern CO and ern NM will slide sewd into at leasxt the nwrn half of fcst area through the evening hours based on current speed and trajectory, assuming much of the precipitation holds together.
/issued 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ The upper level ridge axis over New Mexico will flatten slightly but still bulge out across the Texas south plains region tonight and Wednesday.
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ Generally quiet and warm weather is expected for the next several days as an upper level ridge controls the weather over North and Central Texas.
Across far southwest Nebraska, enough surface based instability has developed that storms that develop off of the higher terrain to the west late this afternoon should survive as they move toward far southwest Nebraska. Otherwise a mild night expected as south winds stay up somewhat keeping the low levels mixed. Dew points will rise into the lower 60s by afternoon east of Highway 83, with 50s to the west. It appears that there is at least some chance of a few thunderstorms near the warm front by late afternoon, with the best chance near the triple point across far southwest South Dakota and far northwest Nebraska.
The short term portion of the forecast will feature a strong ridge of high pressure setting up across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions, slightly cooler than normal temperatures, and dry weather. Highs on Wednesday look to be a few degrees below normal for most locations, as a cooler air mass settles over the area. Most folks will see highs in the low to mid 70s tomorrow. Lows tonight and tomorrow night are forecast to fall into the lower 50s, and maybe even the upper 40s, across eastern Kentucky. The cooler night would be tomorrow night as the new air mass becomes more firmly established. Model guidance in good agreement at the start of the period in relation to the upper levels, with East Coast trough and Central US ridge building. This as potential builds for ridge riding MCS/upper level waves.
611 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A quiet evening ahead as a ridge of high pressure gradually breaks down and shifts east. Much of the mid-longer range portion of the forecast will be dominated by strong upper level ridge and associated summer-like temperatures and humidity.
726 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Trough axis aloft tonight affects northern zones. Center of high pressure crosses Wednesday night.
A cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region from the northwest tonight and Wednesday as Colin tracks rapidly offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and high pressure through the Ohio valley into the southern Appalachians. A cold front appears to now be reaching the eastern half of the forecast area with mid to upper 60s dewpoints across the east with mid and even low 50s everywhere else. Highs this afternoon topping out in the mid 80s for the most part with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s with a few upper 50s mixed in across the west. With high pressure moving into place expect highs in the low 80s with even a few upper 70s possible in the Triad. Lows in the low to middle 50s.
Upslope flow will likely initiate widely scattered deep moist convection over the higher terrain of Colorado this afternoon. The stationary front is progged to lift northward rapidly through the forecast area Wednesday morning, with southerly flow increasing allowing for slightly warmer temperatures.
A cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region from the northwest tonight and Wednesday as Colin tracks rapidly offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and high pressure progresses from the Ohio valley into the southern Appalachians. A cold front appears to now be reaching the eastern half of the forecast area with mid to upper 60s dewpoints across the east with mid and even low 50s everywhere else. Highs this afternoon topping out in the mid 80s for the most part with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s with a few upper 50s mixed in across the west. With high pressure moving into place expect highs in the low 80s with even a few upper 70s possible in the Triad. Lows in the low to middle 50s.
1249 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 High Pressure continuing to build into the region. High pressure will continue to build all day and by this evening winds should be quite light.
1241 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure moving into the area will provide mostly sunny skies today.
1057 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Today's break in cloud cover and precipitation won't last long as an upper level trough passes through eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight into early Wednesday morning. Available moisture increases with this passing trough and the dynamics associated with the trough will bring nocturnal and early morning showers to the region. Temperatures will be running a few degrees cooler Wednesday due to cloud cover and slightly cooler air aloft.
Model guidance shows weak upper-level wave that will cause this high cloudiness to spill over weak Gulf of Mexico ridge and across our forecast area later this evening and tonight.
1022 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected overnight followed by dry and much cooler conditions on Wednesday. Any storms that do form are likely to contain hail given the aforementioned parameters, and wind gusts to about 25 mph can be expected as the low level lapse rates steepen under the cooling aloft. Sub average near-term temperature can be expected under the broad trough, with readings forecast using consensus-short guidance. The upper trough axis is then forecast to shift quickly eastward as Wednesday progresses, so the previously forecast dry and clearing trend was maintained for the afternoon.
A weak mid level low over the great basin situated south of the ridge axis will migrate into the region Wednesday.
A 500 mb trough will remain positioned to the east of the RGV which will maintain the area on the more subsident side of the trough limiting the conv potential for most of the upcoming TAF forecast period. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/ Temperatures this afternoon climbed into the mid 80s to upper 80s across south Padre Island and Bayview/Port Isabel where cooler marine air helped to offset daytime heating.
Shallower mixing on Wednesday will keep temps a bit cooler than today, even with the thermal trof starting to lift out.
The upper low which had been causing all of our rain earlier this month moved south of the area and models now have it slowly inching back to the north. This low is now in a much weaker state and will primarily help serve more as a shear axis to help with the development of diurnal convection.
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Aviation/Marine High pressure builds in tonight with fair weather on Wednesday.
A cold front will shift across the area Wednesday night and deliver cooler air to the region.
718 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Skies are expected to clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region.
12Z GFS MOS had temperatures falling into the lower to middle 30s in north central Wisconsin during the night, though the NAM MOS was at least a few degrees warmer. Sunshine should allow for highs in the middle 60s in the north to the lower 70s in central Wisconsin.
501 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Today's break in cloud cover and precipitation won't last long as an upper level trough passes through eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight into early Wednesday morning. Available moisture increases with this passing trough and the dynamics associated with the trough will bring nocturnal and early morning showers to the region. Temperatures will be running a few degrees cooler Wednesday due to cloud cover and slightly cooler air aloft.
High pressure aloft will strengthen once again across the Great Basin Wednesday, then shift east as a storm system enters the Pacific Northwest late in the week. This trough has allowed isolated to scattered high-based showers to develop across much of the forecast area, with some thunderstorms across portions of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon and into the early evening hours. With the ridge building in from the west, expect a more stable airmass to work its way into the area tonight. May see isolated showers develop again over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, but the trend will be for less convective activity tomorrow.
An upper level ridge is expected to build eastward later this week and into the weekend. With persistent southerly flow, the Gulf of Mexico looks wide open and it's likely we'll see dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. So the combination of air temperatures in the low to mid 90s and high dewpoints/elevated humidity values will lead to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY. WHEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HEAD EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER WA/OR/ID PANHANDLE LAST COUPLE DAYS NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE, BRINGING PLENTY OF FAIR SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SIMILARLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOST LOWER ELEVATION SITES ONLY COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT SOME SPOTTY MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRI AFTN/EVE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE HIGH PLAINS /THE BEGINNING OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR BLACK MESA/ AND FORMING A COMPLEX THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST AFFECTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.