Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 It will be a noticeably cooler day today with afternoon temperatures only getting into the 30s to low 40s. The humidity during the afternoon Thursday looks like it will drop into the 15 to 25 percent range, but winds will be pretty light (under 10 mph) as a ridge of high pressure at the surface moves across the area. The direction will start the day out of the north but swing around to the south by late afternoon on the back side of the ridge axis.
Breezy winds will decrease this evening as the high centers over the region, and we'll see a wind shift out of the south tonight as the high leaves the forecast area. Mid-level ridging will gradually develop over the region during the period as heights rise over the Northern Plains.
Synoptics: An upper level trough digs into the southeastern U. today into tonight, bringing with it a strong cold front that will serve as a focus for our severe weather this evening. This trough tilts neutral and continues to dig into southeastern U. as the primary jet max exits the eastern side of the trough over the western Atlantic. Surface Analysis: A sharpening cold front is presently draped from northeastern Alabama southwest into eastern Louisiana. Surface heating will continue, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 80's this afternoon and increasing SBCAPE values to around 2,000 J/kg, and low level lapse rates improve to 7. Some slight curvature in the low levels of hodographs fosters the potential for a brief, isolated tornado generally north of I-10.
A dry cold front Thursday evening will bring breezy winds. Tonight: Upper level ridging will begin to move eastward this evening and overnight putting the region in a southwesterly flow. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer than this morning, but skies will still be relatively clear, so overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s. Thursday: Thursday will be the warmest day of the week ahead of an approaching dry cold front. By Thursday afternoon, the dry cold front will sweep through the Inland Northwest. Relative humidities will also be in the low to mid 20s, which raises concerns about burning.
632 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Opposing weather headlines for today with fire weather concerns this afternoon and freezing conditions overnight. An upper level trough passing through the area continues to push dry cool air into the region. An upper level ridge moves in during the overnight keeping skies clear. The lack of cloud cover enables strong radiational cooling which dips temperatures well below freezing. Overnight lows are anticipated to reach the low to mid 20s for much of the area. A Freeze Warning continues for areas south of the MO River where seasonal temperatures have been warmer, and thus contains more susceptible vegetation.
653 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Had a light freezing across the northwest one-quarter of Oklahoma this morning, actually a hard freeze in a few spots.
811 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening as a cold front moves through the region.
Latest surface map has high pressure across much of the northern plains with a lee trough from MT to CO. Water vapor images showed an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest with a deep trough over the Great Lakes area. Gusty northwest winds continued today, but will slowly decrease this evening, and then turn southerly overnight as the upper ridge and surface lee trough approach.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of high pressure through the short term period. /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ /Thursday night through Wednesday/ After a dry and sunny day Thursday, temperatures will cool quickly Thursday night under the influence of high pressure aloft, a light wind and a deep layer of dry air.
/Issued 422 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Line of strong convection working its way across the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Clouds gradually clear overnight, winds increase and temperatures fall behind the cold front. Only seeing freezing or below freezing temperature potential in the northeast mountain counties for tonight, where the Frost/Freeze program hasn't started back up yet for the spring.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front has moved through metro Atlanta and is continuing to push into central and eastern GA. /Issued 422 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Line of strong convection working its way across the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Clouds gradually clear overnight, winds increase and temperatures fall behind the cold front. Only seeing freezing or below freezing temperature potential in the northeast mountain counties for tonight, where the Frost/Freeze program hasn't started back up yet for the spring.
505 PM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Latest surface map has high pressure across much of the northern plains with a lee trough from MT to CO. Water vapor images showed an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest with a deep trough over the Great Lakes area. Gusty northwest winds continued today, but will slowly decrease this evening, and then turn southerly overnight as the upper ridge and surface lee trough approach.
848 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Cloud cover has cleared out nicely this evening following the passage of a cold front earlier today. Unseasonably cooler/drier air is now beginning to spread into the area out of the north, with current temps dropping mainly into the mid/upper 40s. Temps should continue to fall overnight into the lower 30s/near 30F, under predom clr skies. North flow will be quite gusty again, gusting over 20kt through the day, and highs will only reach around 50 in valley areas, and only the lower to middle 40s atop the Cumberland Plateau. As the center of the Arctic high drops southeast into the lower OH valley, wind flow will subside.
630 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 00 01APRIL21 TAFs Cold front is still racing south and associated showers / tstorms are expected to exit lower Acadiana within later this evening. /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Cold front quickly progressing southward, and is clearly seen from LCH radar as a line from around coastal Jefferson County stretching to the ENE into Iberia Parish and points onward.
853 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 An upper level disturbance will move trough tonight into Thursday.
High pressure will continue to build across the region through midweek and remain in place heading into the upcoming weekend, resulting in a substantial warming trend. High pressure centered along the California coast continues to build over the region, resulting in dry conditions.
919 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Cold high pressure is building across the area tonight. Freezing or sub freezing temps will cover much of the region by morning. /issued 352 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ The cold front is well clear of the Mid-South this afternoon and we continue to see gusty north winds across the region for a few more hours. A few sprinkles may be affecting portions of the TN Valley, but this activity will wane and cloud cover will diminish from west to east as the trough axis moves across the area this evening. Despite the winds remaining slightly elevated, freezing temperatures are expected across a good chunk of the CWA. North winds will increase to 10-15 mph and highs will top out in the low/mid 50s.
Warmer and drier weather returns for this weekend. As an upper low pushes farther northeast into northeast Canada, cooler air will push into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region as energy from a long trough builds into the region. The origins of the air mass associated with this trough come from Alaska, but there is a PV anomaly associated with this trough. This will mean a very cold, below normal, airmass moves in tonight allowing for cold surface temperatures with lows in the low to mid 20s and cold highs only in the mid 30s on Thursday as 850 Ts drop into the negative teens. However, dry air within the lowest 500m will likely need to be overcome and the location of the sfc convergence may move south along the lake meaning any bands that may setup would shift southward as well.
This cloud cover is associated with several short wave perturbations contained with a deepening longer wave trough over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. In the lower levels, a frontal system is noted along the northern BC Coast and down towards Haida Gwaii and the adjacent Pacific, also associated with some short wave activity within the longer wave trough. This will keep low temperatures much warmer than the previous several nights with lows in the upper 30s to around 40, thus eliminating the frost potential. The area will the remain under the influence of an upper level trough Thursday night and through the weekend. High pressure will exit the region tonight, followed by a weak frontal system on Thursday.
Despite the high pressure moving overhead, we have seen gusty northwest winds continue to increase through the afternoon. Winds at the surface and low levels shift around to the southwest for Thursday as the upper trough pushes off to our east and ridging gradually builds overhead.
/issued 352 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ The cold front is well clear of the Mid-South this afternoon and we continue to see gusty north winds across the region for a few more hours. A few sprinkles may be affecting portions of the TN Valley, but this activity will wane and cloud cover will diminish from west to east as the trough axis moves across the area this evening. Despite the winds remaining slightly elevated, freezing temperatures are expected across a good chunk of the CWA. North winds will increase to 10-15 mph and highs will top out in the low/mid 50s.
High pressure continuing to build over the region on Thursday will bring warm and dry conditions with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon RH down into the teens. Prominent upper ridging will occur this weekend to bring downslope flow and very above normal temperatures to the area.
629 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Despite the high pressure moving overhead, we have seen gusty northwest winds continue to increase through the afternoon. Winds at the surface and low levels shift around to the southwest for Thursday as the upper trough pushes off to our east and ridging gradually builds overhead.
Temperatures on Thursday will be 10-15 degrees warmer, with highs in the 70s across the lower valleys.
304 PM PDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A warming trend is on tap to continue through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
This is followed by a reinforcing cold front dry enough to lift additional ceiling from MVFR during the morning while boosting the wind field back to gusts around 25 knots for Thursday afternoon. A deep upper trough will progress into the region overnight with a secondary cold front associated with this feature ushering in H85 temperatures around -15C by late tonight/Thursday. This period of snow showers will really the only notable chance of precipitation for the rest of the week on into the weekend as a sprawling arctic high pressure system settles from the upper midwest southeast into the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be very cold for early April as lows drop into the lower 20s over the next few nights with highs only in the lower to mid 30s on Thursday.
High pressure will exit the region tonight, followed by a weak frontal system on Thursday.
616 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The main upper trough continues to shift east this afternoon, with the main trough axis currently extending from near the great lakes region south to eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure continues to build over the state this afternoon with the center currently over west central KS. This combo should allow the area to radiate out tonight dropping lows below freezing for much of the CWA.
Expect a break in rain before another chance of initially showers moves in ascd with the approaching cold front in the pre-dawn hours. The cold front will drag southeast through the area in the morning hours and quickly move east and out of the area by the afternoon hours. Decreasing clouds are expected throughout the day but northerly flow will bring much cooler temperatures with highs only reaching the low-to-mid 70s across areas north of I-4 and the upper 70s to low 80s across areas south of I-4.
The powerful upper trof axis will drop southeast through the OH and TN valley overnight. North flow will be quite gusty again, gusting over 20kt through the day, and highs will only reach around 50 in valley areas, and only the lower to middle 40s atop the Cumberland Plateau. As the center of the Arctic high drops southeast into the lower OH valley, wind flow will subside.
The clear skies, CAA, and drier air will allow for lows at or below freezing for most across the mid state tonight.
A cold front currently in place across northern FL will be pushing south through the area overnight and into Thursday morning. This, along with the cooler and drier air moving into the area will cause some borderline hazardous fire weather conditions.
/Issued 212 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Clear skies and surface ridging conditions will result in excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight, with sub-freezing temperatures expected across parts of northeast OK into northwest AR.
940 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
/issued 219 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Who can have temperatures near freezing before getting close to the century mark one week later? Us, that's who! We are in for some wild temperatures to start off the first week of April, but that is pretty typical for these parts. The cold front that moved through yesterday and last night continues to bring gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures to the region. Surface ridging shifts east allowing return flow to commence late tomorrow. Weak upper ridging will be in control so expect dry conditions to continue.
308 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the Tennessee Valley, with upper ridging over the Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure is centered over eastern Nebraska and extends down into central TX. Broad area of upper ridging is expected over the central and northern Plains for the weekend which will continue to promote above normal temperatures. Both the GFS and ECMWF close off the upper low and track it east on the Tue night-Wed.
Tomorrow it will be a few degrees warmer and with the high overhead not as breezy.
207 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 An upper level disturbance will move trough tonight into Thursday. Low temperatures Thursday night drop down into the lower 20s.
Cold front has now moved well to the southeast with skies clear across western and southern sections of the forecast area early this morning. A freeze warning is in effect for all locations except the higher eastern mountains this morning until 900 AM. However some locations especially in urban areas may stay above freezing and also wind exposed sites could stay just above freezing. For tonight winds will stay up for awhile as high pressure continues to settle south southeast towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The lows are expected to be just above records at Chattanooga and Knoxville but the record low for Tri-Cities airport is 27 in 2001 so will likely be broken.
The upper level ridge will continue to slide eastward through the short term period suppressing any lift across western Kansas over the next couple of days. A trough of low pressure at the surface across eastern Colorado will continue to intensify with strong southerly winds expected across western Kansas this afternoon.
This should allow winds to relax a bit and temperatures to plummet to or near freezing by sunrise across a large portion of the Mid-South.
This high pressure will drive the weather in the short term. Quiet, cooler weather for the short term. Tonight, winds will really calm as the high will be almost over the area. Temps will not be as cold as this morning, but will still be below freezing. Key messages: 1) Warmer and breezy Friday.
323 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 The deep upper level trough slowly traverses the region today maintaining this cold airmass overhead. With the upper level trough beginning to move east, height rises work into SE MI by mid to late morning further decreasing the depth of moisture with saturation occuring around/below 4000ft. Another cold night is in store tonight as skies clear dropping lows into the low 20s to upper teens. Ridging develops over the central US Friday and slowly moves east toward the Great Lakes.
A similar, slightly cooler pattern is expected Thursday night into Friday morning, as lows fall well into the 30s, nearing the freezing mark in SW Arkansas.
VFR conds will prevail through the period has high pressure moves towards the region. Winds will become light or calm Thursday night as high pressure settles in over the state. Freezing temperatures are expected across a widespread swath of northern and northeastern AR overnight, and freeze warnings have been posted for these areas. Freezing temperatures could certainly occur further south as well, although they will tend to be in areas that are more cold sensitive. As far as the big picture is concerned, the trof over the area will exit rapidly east tonight, and a bit of ridging will occur over the area during the remainder of the short term, while high pressure builds into the area at the surface.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ An upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue moving off to our east while a ridge builds in from the west.
1049 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Had a light freezing across the northwest one-quarter of Oklahoma this morning, actually a hard freeze in a few spots.
/issued 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ 00 01APRIL21 TAFs Cold front is still racing south and associated showers / tstorms are expected to exit lower Acadiana within later this evening. /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ Cold front quickly progressing southward, and is clearly seen from LCH radar as a line from around coastal Jefferson County stretching to the ENE into Iberia Parish and points onward.
Much colder and drier air continues to flow into the region during the period in the wake of a cold front earlier this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions continue through Friday as a large dome of cool high pressure builds into the eastern states. Lows tonight range from the upper 30s inland to the lower/mid 40s at the coast. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast, and a Freeze Watch remains in effect for interior areas from late Thursday night into early Friday morning for overnight lows potentially reaching 30 degrees.
After a chilly start to the day, southwest low level flow is forecast to gradually increase throughout the day as warmer return flow sets up behind the eastward departing high pressure system.
255 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 A cool dry airmass continues to filter into the region in the wake of the cold front that is now well offshore. Gusty winds currently will gradually relax through the day as high pressure settles in over the region.
Leaned towards the cooler side of ensemble guidance, even though the spread among the NBM and GEFS BC ensemble members are fairly narrow, between 3 and 5 degrees. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s tonight, which are at least 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs will still be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, ranging from the low 40s over south central Illinois to the upper 40s over central and southeast Missouri. It will be below freezing long enough that another Freeze Warning will be issued for the same location as tonight's Freeze Warning and run from 06z to 14z Friday. Byrd A warming trend will begin on Friday as an upper level ridge over the Central Plains slides east into the region with winds becoming southerly once again.
With the exception of the last one to two hours before sunrise, temperatures will likely remain at or above freezing until at time. However, unlike this morning, the next Freeze Warning for later Thursday night into Friday morning will have nearly ideal radiational conditions as the center of high pressure settles across the WFO PAH forecast area.
440 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 A cold front will bring snow to NY and PA early this morning, then push scattered lake effect snow showers into Upstate NY Thursday afternoon.
254 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 A low amplitude upper level low pressure trough sliding by north of the area this morning will be to the east later today. Temperatures around 8-10 degrees below normal are expected today and tonight, including lows tonight dropping near or just below freezing many areas on the Caprock. RMcQueen The upper low currently situated just off the southern California coast will weaken to an open wave trough over the Four Corners region by tomorrow afternoon.
A dry cold front Thursday evening will bring breezy winds. The upper level ridge can be seen on IR satellite imagery as high cirrus is spilling across Washington this evening. Temperatures as 8 pm PDT are in the low to mid 50s which seems much more seasonal and actually pretty nice given how sunny today was, in my opinion. Light winds in the boundary layer also indicative of high pressure building in. Ahead of the cold front, Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week. Fairly light winds this evening will begin increasing overnight across the Basin and into the Palouse as the ridge becomes flattened. A mostly dry cold front will push through the Inland Northwest Thursday afternoon bringing increasing clouds and breezy to gusty winds.
1128 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The main upper trough continues to shift east this afternoon, with the main trough axis currently extending from near the great lakes region south to eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure continues to build over the state this afternoon with the center currently over west central KS. This combo should allow the area to radiate out tonight dropping lows below freezing for much of the CWA.
The ridge of high pressure responsible for clearing skies and warming trend will slide overhead tonight. Winds shift to the southwest on Thursday, as a closed low becomes ingested into the broad ridge and lifts towards the Desert Southwest. This will enhance warm air advection and allow Thursday's high temperatures to rise another 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. On Thursday night, the closed low pressure trapped under the expansive ridge will move ashore in southern Cal. The low pressure will not provide much lift, but moisture will try to advect into the area in the southwest flow. On Friday night that system exits the region allowing the ridge to reach it's full potential over the weekend. Under this ridge temperatures will continue to rise with highs nudging 80 degrees, and low-to-mid 60's for mountain towns.
Upper level trough axis is in the resulting in an uptick in ongoing N/NW flow lake effect snow shower activity across Northern Lower Michigan. Low level flow has shifted to a nearly straight north trajectory behind the upper trough axis and surface response. Current surface map shows a large area of strong high pressure centered over the heart of the US. Upper level trough axis will shift SE of our CWA around sunrise this morning. Upstream high pressure center will gradually lean into Michigan throughout today and tonight. Afternoon high temps will only warm into the low to mid 30s. Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure will dominate the eastern half of the CONUS. With the aforementioned high pressure moving just to the east of northern Michigan Friday evening. brings southwestward winds advecting warmer air.