Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
558 PM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Strong high pressure aloft will keep our region dry tonight. Friday will be the warmest day yet of 2021 for our forecast area, then the ridge breaks down. JKL High pressure aloft will keep dry and warm conditions in place through Friday. The warmth will be enhanced by increasing downslope winds off the western mountains/foothills ahead of an approaching cold front. A Cold front moves through the area Friday night as upper trough moves into the region. The high country will see a few inches of snow Friday night, but snow levels will remain above 6000 ft, so lower elevations should expect rain showers.
Yesterday's storm system is now moving into the Ohio Valley area while a mid/upper ridge amplifies across the Central Great Basin area and the Northern Intermountain region. Northwest mid/upper flow prevails across the Central Plains as high pressure noses into the region. Light winds and seasonable temperatures are anticipated on Fri as high pressure noses into the area. Low level flow will return to the south across central KS as high pressure starts to pull away from the region.
Wrap around clouds from an upper level low over the Midwest should stay just to the north overnight. However, this cloud cover is expected to expand to the southeast after 19/12Z as the upper level low opens up and move over KAEX after 19/13Z and to KLFT/KARA after 19/16Z.
Scattered showers along a cold front pushes southward through Thursday evening providing light to moderate rain to the Bay Area and the Central Coast. Widespread rain showers have returned to the Bay Area and the Central Coast along the front of a cold front. Patchy fog is forecast to develop in more sheltered valley locations overnight with temperatures into the low 40s and isolated upper 30s. Temperatures will once again be in the 50s and low 60s on Friday as the upper level trough moves slowly southward, with drier conditions developing.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): The very dry surface ridging in place over the RGV will hold down the humidity levels throughout the short term period.
Some mid level cloudiness is expected tonight and low temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than last night, in the low to mid 20s F on the plains and teens in the mountains. Confidence in fog remains low, especially considering that fog did not occur last night into this morning as indicated by the models, and cloudier skies and warmer temperatures are expected tonight.
819 PM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Breezy, dry, and sunny conditions are expected to continue through the day today as high pressure to the east continues to be the main influence on our weather. Ludwig 600 PM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 (19/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the area. This should continue through the day today and into tonight, as upper level ridging remains the main player in our local weather. SPC has put us in a general T'storm risk for tomorrow, and given some weak instability, there may be a few rumbles of thunder, especially over the higher terrain.
631 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Water Vapor and radar data shows closed low churning away along the MO/KY border with conveyor belt of rain/snow mix staying well south of the area from Chicago to east-central IA. Very dry inflow with the high on gusty northeast winds of 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph. High pressure builds into over the area tonight through Friday for dry/mostly clear conditions. Plan on lows tonight in the teens across the boggy/cold areas of central WI, to the lower/mid 20s elsewhere. The high begins to slide east of the area Friday night, setting up southerly winds overnight in the 5-15 mph range.
420 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A deep trough along with a strong area of low pressure will move through the Tennessee valley tonight. The low will move off the southeastern USA coast by midday Friday. A northerly flow will remain place as sharp ridging sets up over the nation's heartland.
356 PM PDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A cold front will push through the region overnight.
A cold front is on track to continue to push through the region tonight through the morning tomorrow. Snow levels near 7500 ft MSL ahead of the cold front will drop to 4500-5500 ft, resulting in valley rain and mountain snow. Scattered showers in southeast Oregon this evening spreading into central and southwest Idaho after 06z tonight as a cold front crosses the area.
This afternoon the upper level trough was moving over the Tennessee Valley while a ridge was located from the southwest into the northern Plains. The next upper low was over the northwest coast in the eastern Pacific. Winds will also decrease after sunset as the gradient weakens as high pressure builds in from the north.
639 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Satellite images indicate a large area of low clouds rotating around the low pressure area centered over Tennessee.
The deformation type precipitation associated with an upper level low moving eastward into western portions of KY and TN will shift east of our area by late tonight. It will be warmer on Friday due to the full solar insolation.
Models are indicating some mid and high level moisture moving in from the west later this afternoon into the evening, but this shouldn't impact the high temperatures too much as highs will be reached at peak sun angle prior to the increasing cloud cover. Overnight lows should also be a bit milder given the increasing cloud cover and warm air advection aloft as the flow turns to the southwest ahead of an approaching Pacific trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Friday. This will tighten the pressure gradient a bit across the Western Slope and nudge the ridge of high pressure slightly to our east. Some of the lower desert canyon country of southeast Utah could also see low 70s on Friday.
Winds are expected to stay up overnight and into tomorrow, as we remain sandwiched between a 1001mb low over North Carolina and a 1033mb high pressure center over Lake Superior. /issued 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ Scattered showers continue to move through the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to an upper level low pressure system.
Cold front currently just north of the area set to push south of the mid-state around sunrise, while closed upper low continues to move off the Plateau. Temps will be significantly cooler behind this front, and winds likely to become gusty. Low pressure, especially at upper levels, will keep a few showers in the area this evening, with clouds lingering throughout the night. Overnight passage of a cold front will shift winds from W to NNW and increase gusts to about 25KT.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: Much cooler weather has moved into the region behind yesterday's storm system and front. Even still, temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 50s with some lower 60s in the south. Some light rain/drizzle was occurring across northern Mississippi down to the Golden Triangle this morning in association with the passing upper low. This will result in another cooler day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s as clouds and winds should help keep conditions a little warmer despite the cold air advection. /28/ Expect dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures as we head into the weekend.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ WV imagery shows potent upper trough over the MS Valley, making for a busy afternoon on the east coast. Farther west, a broad upper ridge dominated the western CONUS, and will build into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.
A cold front continues to work south through southern Indiana and is expected to near the Ohio River between 5 to 6 PM EDT. By daybreak tomorrow, the cold front will near southern Tennessee.
A cold front was moving from west to east across the area and there will be some spotty -SHRA as it moves across the area this evening and tonight.
A cold front has surged east of the area and a drier west to northwest flow has been spreading over the area. Overnight lows cooler into the lower to mid 40s along and north of I-10. A cold front has surged east of the area and a drier west to northwest flow has been spreading over the area. Overnight lows cooler into the lower to mid 40s along and north of I-10.
South winds will increase Saturday as the high pressure system moves well east of Wisconsin. The southerly winds will bring warmer but still very dry air into the region, creating very low afternoon relative humidities away from the lake and bay.
1002 PM PDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A cold front will push through the region overnight. Temperatures will be seasonably cooler Friday and Saturday with the chance of showers over the Cascades and much of north Idaho.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: Much cooler weather has moved into the region behind yesterday's storm system and front. Even still, temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 50s with some lower 60s in the south. Some light rain/drizzle was occurring across northern Mississippi down to the Golden Triangle this morning in association with the passing upper low. This will result in another cooler day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s as clouds and winds should help keep conditions a little warmer despite the cold air advection. /28/ Expect dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures as we head into the weekend. Clouds look to linger into Saturday, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 60s across the area.
231 AM MDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Rockies spreading onto the High Plains. The closed low which brought widespread rainfall to the forecast area is continuing to move east over the Ohio River Valley. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night for the parts of the forecast area that had a clear sky due to the weak WAA from the southerly winds. Friday will be warmer than today as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
Influence of broad ridging across the Central US continues with westerly zonal flow along the northern extent of this ridge in the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will rebound today, but still remain a bit below climatology as ridge axis moves across the area. Light winds tonight should allow temperatures to fall at or below freezing at most locations, with some protected and low lying areas in southeast KS potentially falling into the upper 20s.
121 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 A cold front has moved through the region opening the door for a shot of unseasonably cold air. While temperatures will remain below freezing today, sunshine and relaxing winds will mark the beginning of a long, dry and tranquil stretch of weather.
Mostly clear skies are expected Today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across se GA to the lower 70s north-central FL. Cold front moves southeastward across the area Tonight. Cloudy and cool conditions are anticipated for the weekend with breezy winds from out of the north and northeast as high pressure presses southward from out of the north. A weak trough will move into the region from out of the northeast leading to slight chances for showers extending inland, with the highest chances for precipitation occurring along the coastline.
231 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to our southeast near the surface, with upper ridging in place at least for today. Saturday the tight pressure gradient remains over the region, as the upper trough slowly moves into the northern plains, so we can expect the gusty winds to continue during the day, especially over the coteau as flow from the southwest creates some downslope affect.
The surface flow remains north to northeast across the majority of the forecast area to the east of the ridge axis. Plenty of boundary layer moisture lingers across the area and the lower clouds have been tough to break. As the ridge axis shifts east of the area on Friday, southerly low-level flow will increase with the boundary layer drying substantially. As a result, the lower clouds will decrease, and with little in the way of mid and upper level moisture, there should be plenty of sunshine. Leeward troughing deepens across the western High Plains Saturday with the surface pressure gradient tightening across the area.
(Today and tonight) As lower level ridge axis settles in over the region today and tonight, winds are expected to be much weaker than previous couple of days.
The clouds could have a larger impact on keeping temperatures from dropping as much as indicated, bud did make some minor upward adjustments to the lows tonight. /issued 420 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ A deep trough along with a strong area of low pressure will move through the Tennessee valley tonight. The low will move off the southeastern USA coast by midday Friday. A northerly flow will remain place as sharp ridging sets up over the nation's heartland.
18Z surface data has a series of low pressure centers over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while high pressure was over the Plains. After sunset and continuing through Friday quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure builds into the Midwest. High pressure extending acrs the area from the southern GRT LKS, mostly clear skies and light east to southeast winds to make for a cool night with lows in the upper 20s.
Areas inland with clear skies were the lower to mid 40s.
A low-level trough extending across much of the Deep South to maintain a 3-5kft cloud deck across southern Arkansas and north Louisiana through the late morning hours with gradual improvement expected this afternoon as weak ridging builds from the west. Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail through the short term period as an upper-level ridge across Texas and Oklahoma maintain subsident northwest flow aloft.
251 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 A progressive upper level ridge will approach from the west today and tonight. As the positively tilted ridge axis gets closer, we'll see scattered mid and high level clouds streaming northwest to southeast with light and variable surface winds this morning, becoming southeast and then gradually veer more southerly by late tonight. Northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge axis will help keep temperatures around 5-10 degrees cooler than normal in most locations. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s by early Saturday, which is only slightly cooler than normal.
For tonight, a weak lee trough will prevail across the High Plains. As a result, probably half of the area will see lows tonight above freezing due to the warm southerly winds prevailing. For Saturday, the lee trough will continue to deepen. With the warmer highs and gusty winds, comes a higher fire danger.
211 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Strong low pressure system brings thunderstorm chances with a cold front tonight. High pressure then prevails most of Friday, through the weekend, and into the next work week. Cold front is crossing east of the area tonight. Low pressure, evident on satellite near the lower Ohio River Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley regions. particularly this afternoon, as the low progresses east/se. Large hail will be a possibility, especially with low freezing levels around 8000-9000 feet, along with the potential for strong gusty winds to reach the surface owing to mid level dry air. The low will pull off to the east of the area late tonight and early Friday. Cooler, and dry on Friday behind system.
1050 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Water Vapor and radar data shows closed low churning away along the MO/KY border with conveyor belt of rain/snow mix staying well south of the area from Chicago to east-central IA. Very dry inflow with the high on gusty northeast winds of 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph. High pressure builds into over the area tonight through Friday for dry/mostly clear conditions. Plan on lows tonight in the teens across the boggy/cold areas of central WI, to the lower/mid 20s elsewhere. The high begins to slide east of the area Friday night, setting up southerly winds overnight in the 5-15 mph range. Saturday is looking dry, blustery and mild as southerly winds pick up on the backside of the departing high and in advance of a trough/cold front moving into the Plains States.
323 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 A cool, stable air mass continues to ooze into the Tennessee Valley region in wake of a fast-moving upper-trough. These clouds and the breezy NW/NNW flow will also help make for a chilly day as temperatures will run as much as 10-15 degrees below normal, peaking in the lower 50s by the afternoon. High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the area from the north tonight into Saturday. Dry air and strong subsidence from the area of high pressure should help to scour out cloud cover by Saturday morning. The end result will be a mostly sunny (and warmer) day, with winds veering to the SE, helping to push highs back into the 60s.
A large expanse of upper level ridging was across the Plains and moving into the western Great Lakes. Saturday, for the most part, will look a lot like Friday, the only difference will be that the return flow will begin during the afternoon as the ridge axes moves to the east.
Updated 955 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Upper low working its way east of Interstate 75, with the sfc reflection over West Virginia this evening. An elongated sfc trof extends westward into the lower Ohio Valley, with confluent and moist NE mid-level flow above it, and that is supporting a couple bands of light rain showers. A cold front continues to work south through southern Indiana and is expected to near the Ohio River between 5 to 6 PM EDT. By daybreak tomorrow, the cold front will near southern Tennessee.
(Today and tonight) Cool high pressure centered across much of the Great Plains and central Texas will continue to be the dominant feature for the next 24 hours.
This will be where the best radiational cooling will occur with some lows in the low to mid 30s and perhaps some patchy frost in sheltered areas. The dry air in place will make for a very pleasant afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. Some lower 30s and patchy frost will be possible in the typically cooler and more sheltered locations.
250 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 The potent low pressure system that triggered all of the rain and wind across central Indiana yesterday has pushed farther eastward. GOES16 is depicting the low over Virginia/North Carolina with the bulk of the precipitation shield now east and south of Indiana. Forecast soundings are indicating much drier air in the low levels by daybreak and plenty of sunshine for today. And, with the ridge axis tracking closer to the Midwest, plenty of sunshine will can be expected as well on Saturday.
Cyclonic flow on the western periphery of the upper level trough anchored to our east will maintain the cold advection pattern and associated stratus.
Expect breezy and warm conditions for Friday, with windy and gradually cooler weather over the weekend.
This ridge amplifies through the weekend which will promote rising temperatures and an overall pleasant weekend.
316 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 In the wake of a departing surface cold front to our south, low stratus and patchy drizzle persist over the southern two-thirds of the CWA. However, as high pressure builds south into the Great Lakes, cool/dry air will shunt the lingering cloud cover into the Mid-South by late morning. High temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 50s the afternoon (about 5-8 degrees below normal), and a brisk NE wind will give the air a bit of a chill.
Main issue for this forecast period are wrap around clouds from an upper level low over the Midwest. With cold air advection the primary cooling factor overnight, don't believe the clouds will be affecting the low temperatures across Central Louisiana.
218 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 A quiet night was unfolding across the area with expansive high pressure building into the Mississippi River Valley and the Midwest. The high pressure building across the area will result in quiet, seasonable weather, with abundant sunshine and mild temperatures expected. Thankfully the winds will be much lighter as the pressure gradient relaxes with the high. Expect afternoon temperatures to climb into the low to mid 50s, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 20s to near 30.
Overnight lows in the mid 30s, with localized cold air drainage locations dropping into the lower 30s.
128 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 MSAS analysis shows a 1033 mb high centered south of James Bay as part of a ridge that extends along an axis from James Bay to South Dakota. Satellite shows skies have cleared across the area accordingly as this ridge approaches. Upper-level heights will rise tonight and tomorrow as a stout ridge covering much of the CONUS from the Rockies into the Northern Plains inches eastward. This ridge will keep skies clear tonight and tomorrow. Saturday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten with increasing WAA between the southern Great Lakes ridge and a trough through the western Plains.
However, the high clouds that are not well-represented in guidance and an easterly component to the northerly winds will hamper more robust cooling overnight. Latest upper water vapor imagery was showing an impressive upper low over moving southeastward over the western Ohio River Valley at mid afternoon. Latest runs of the HREF/GFS/NAM all show that upper low will move off quickly to the east tonight. An upper ridge will build over the region Friday and Friday night bringing dry weather. Temperatures tonight will fall back below freezing late tonight as skies clear. Highs tomorrow will only be in the lower 50s despite the sunny skies because of persistent northeasterly winds. Britt Dry weather is expected to continue through the weekend as much of ensemble guidance is showing the upper ridge remains over the Midwest.
400 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Upper ridge over the area today will provide fair weather for the region.
The upper level low will continue to push off to the east through the rest of today. Upper level ridging will develop through Friday as it slides in off the Rockies, settling over the Great Plains region by the weekend. This will yield pleasant spring conditions with high temps in the lower 50s on Friday and the upper 50s by Saturday.
Winds are expected to stay up overnight and into tomorrow, as we remain sandwiched between a 1001mb low over North Carolina and a 1033mb high pressure center over Lake Superior. /issued 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ Scattered showers continue to move through the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to an upper level low pressure system. The Mid-South will remain in the back side of the upper low through Saturday morning.
With cold air advection the primary cooling factor overnight, don't believe the clouds will be affecting the low temperatures across Central Louisiana. Wrap around clouds from an upper level low over the Midwest should stay just to the north overnight. However, this cloud cover is expected to expand to the southeast after 19/12Z as the upper level low opens up and move over KAEX after 19/13Z and to KLFT/KARA after 19/16Z.
This will result in some warmer temps by this afternoon. with some areas dropping to near or just below freezing by Sat morning.
Highs will only be in the low to mid 50s. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend and a warming trend will begin this weekend.
Today we will see cold air stratus remain across the area on the backside of the upper low. Meanwhile high pressure build over the region and begins to slide east. This high pressure will increase the easterly flow across the area and bring in a back door cold front tonight and into Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500mb ridge over the Rockies and Desert Southwest to slowly move east over Texas through the weekend. At the surface re-enforcing high pressure noses into region today remaining along the coast and the Western Gulf of Mexico Saturday. Both ridges continue to provide a very dry and stable atmosphere with mean layer 1000-500mb relative humidity to range between 25-40 percent as the dry northerly surface flow keeps dew points well below Deep south Texas norms.