Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1036 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Key Messages: - Storm chances into this evening - Fog potential tonight - Precipitation chances return over weekend Storm Chances - This Afternoon The CAMs continues to show that there will be scattered showers and storms along the cold front as it moves southeast through the region. With the best forcing over Wisconsin, kept the higher rain chances there. Tonight - Fog Potential High pressure will build across the region. This Weekend - next round for showers/storms Broad upper-level ridging builds over the region heading into the weekend.
1139 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center over ern NM/TX Panhandle during the next 24 hrs. Otherwise, thunderstorms will remain a possibility through much of the next 7 days along with slightly cooler, and closer to normal, temperatures. The upper level high pressure center remains over northwest NM this afternoon. A back door cold front has made it south to Clovis and west to Las Vegas and Clines Corners.
Frontal boundary over WY and MT will push east as a warm front later tonight and Thursday. The next cold front will reach western and northern portions of the CWA by Friday afternoon and move southeast across the rest of the area through the early evening.
/Issued 258 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022/ A typical summertime pattern is expected for the short-term across GA as high pressure and weak upper riding sets up across the southeast. Thinking the highest PoPs today will remain in these areas due to slightly higher PWs and greater differential heating from less cloud cover. By the weekend, the western high will continue to build eastward, filling in the long-wave trough to the north and increasing the coverage of the ridge to include the central and eastern CONUS.
Very little cloud cover is expected today or tonight with temperatures generally a few degrees warmer than climatology. A strong upper low that is currently moving southeast across southwest Canada is expected to shift eastward across southern Canada over the next couple of days. Ahead of this low, a broad upper ridge will build across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the northeastern CONUS. This ridge will lead for the best upper forcing with the upper low across Canada.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The 500mb ridge centered near the Four Corners region will continue to build into the region through the period. Highs today and Friday will remain above normal generally ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the beaches, to the mid to upper 90s across the Lower Valley and triple digits along and west of I-69C/US 281. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast. Increasing low level moisture associated with an approaching mid-level inverted trough may generated isolated convection, mainly across the Gulf waters, on Friday.
A stagnant weather pattern lies ahead with a weak cold front slowly approaching the area poised to stall out in an area from the eastern Great Lakes, westward into the mid- Mississippi River Valley.
The clouds and winds will diminish as we move into the evening hours as an area of high pressure builds into the region. Moisture returns to the area as well ahead of the next system moving into the area late Thursday into Friday as dewpoints climb back to the low/mid 60s by late Thursday. Upper level trough moving through south central Canada will swing an associated cold front will approach the region late Thursday night. 500 mb short wave and trough will move into western and central Canada as we head into Friday, with associated 500 mb jet taking this trough more northeast into northern Manitoba vs due east.
1037 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Heat indices up to or exceeding 105 degrees will be possible this afternoon, as our Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the mid-evening hours across all but northwest Oklahoma which should stay a couple of degrees cooler with some mid-level cloudiness. Currently seeing some weak isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface boundary/cold front stretched across central Kansas through the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles near Beaver Oklahoma. As far as heat on Thursday, some of our area may again reach Heat Advisory criteria based on the NBM heat indices, even though some increasing cloud cover should keep the dry bulb temperatures a few degrees cooler during the afternoon.
TODAY-FRIDAY: Cooler and much drier air has begun to filter into the region this afternoon behind a cold front. Warm advection will begin later Thursday as southerly flow develops on the backside of a departing high, with temperatures peaking Friday as the thermal ridge axis moves over the Upper Midwest. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are possible for much of the CWA, along with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.
328 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Precipitation chances will remain high today and tomorrow as a trough to the west advances into the Ohio River Valley. Quiet, warm weather will continue early this morning as a ridge axis continues to hold steady across eastern Ohio. A few Hi-Res models are hinting at convective initiation due to convergence along the ridges of West Virginia. Hazards for the day will include isolated strong wind associated with convective downdrafts and flash flooding from training storms in a sufficient moist environment (note, dew points will likely increase into the low-70s throughout the afternoon and PWATS will range between 1. VCTS are expected to develop during the afternoon with heightened instability, daytime heating, and as the upper level ridge break down. More showers and storms are possible Friday with a pre-frontal trough.
Increasing southerly flow will bring another hot day across the western CWA where highs should reach the upper 90s, to the lower 100s. The period starts off on Friday with broad upper ridging stretching across the Southern Plains and Ohio Rvr valley. Meanwhile a positive tilt mid-level trof over southwest Canada/PacNW will slowly advect east and suppress the ridge over the Northern Plains this weekend. Deep layer shear remains somewhat low given that the highest winds aloft remain mostly behind the sfc front.
Meanwhile slightly drier air mass and sfc ridging should keep areas north and west of GRR drier and perhaps a bit sunnier on Thursday and Friday.
Lows during this time will be a touch cooler than seasonal norms, as values fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Currently have highs rising into the low to mid 90s, with locations west of the James approaching the lower 100s. Unlike earlier this week, expect dewpoints to only rise into the low to mid 60s, would should keep heat indices similar to highs.
306 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 A cold front was dropping into the area this morning, with light northeast winds at across the majority of the area 130 am. Plenty of model support for not as hot temperatures this afternoon centering around the lower and mid 90s.
Discussion: This morning a cold front which is bringing storms with periods of heavy rain to areas south of Highway 50 will shift south of the CWA. A upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the southern High Plains today bringing subtle height rises to the local area on the leeside of the ridge. This will keep temperatures warm even behind the cold front with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon couple with recent rain will also make for humid conditions as well with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Continued height rises with the upper level ridge building eastward coupled with increased surface WAA will allow highs to rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Friday.
1133 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Isolated thunderstorms have begun developing this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain of the Laramie Range. Afternoon highs near Chadron will be around 103F degrees for a second consecutive day with overnight LLJ and downslope over the Pine Ridge keeping Friday morning lows in the mid-to-upper 70s. Slight chance of storms expected once again Thursday, mainly along the higher terrain. However, increased low-level convergence east of a weak lee trough with moist southerly flow could lead to a few showers/storms developing over the Nebraska Panhandle. Increased monsoonal moisture will arrive Friday night along with a frontal passage that'll bring cooler weather and increased chances for precipitation headed into the weekend.
352 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Heat indices up to or exceeding 105 degrees will be possible this afternoon, as our Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the mid-evening hours across all but northwest Oklahoma which should stay a couple of degrees cooler with some mid-level cloudiness. Currently seeing some weak isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface boundary/cold front stretched across central Kansas through the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles near Beaver Oklahoma. As far as heat on Thursday, some of our area may again reach Heat Advisory criteria based on the NBM heat indices, even though some increasing cloud cover should keep the dry bulb temperatures a few degrees cooler during the afternoon.
451 AM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Upper flow over the western and central CONUS is weekly ridged, with high pressure over the Desert SW and low pressure over SW Canada. The warm front will slide across the CWA today, and temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and triple digits. As the upper low slides across Canada, its cold front will begin to slowly cross our area Friday and Friday night.
Elevated convection behind the cold front over southern Kansas was slowly pushing off to the southeast with IR satellite trends showing steadily less development in the local area. Will keep some small chances PoPs early this morning but a slightly cooler and mainly dry day is anticipated.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has moved into far northwestern Oklahoma this morning, and while it may slide a little farther south, it will bring only slightly lower temperatures in the north. With the warm temperatures expected this afternoon, we may hit our convective temperature and aid in potential storm development south of the cold front. With the high low-level dewpoint depressions, we could see the potential for some strong winds with any storms that do develop.
Today will likely be the hottest day before cooler air gradually moves in to the region.
Weak troughing aloft persists across the region today. Otherwise, with some lingering clouds through the overnight hours tonight, lows will fall into the low and middle 70s.
748 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Precipitation chances will remain high today and tomorrow as a trough to the west advances into the Ohio River Valley. A few Hi-Res models are hinting at convective initiation due to convergence along the ridges of West Virginia. Hazards for the day will include isolated strong wind associated with convective downdrafts and flash flooding from training storms in a sufficient moist environment (note, dew points will likely increase into the low-70s throughout the afternoon and PWATS will range between 1. More showers and storms are possible Friday with a pre-frontal trough.
Highs will reach the lower 90s valleys and upper 80s atop the higher plateau areas, and no changes needed there.
613 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Summary: Quiet today and Friday and trending warmer.
541 AM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 The H5 ridge continues to spin over the southwestern US, generally centered in far SW Colorado. A trough moving across the US/Canada border will also help bring the moisture northward. Have kept the low end chance pops for today, with isolated thunder. A considerable change in the pattern peaks starting Friday, as the monsoonal moisture sweeps across the region, and is influenced by the passing trough to the north.
For tomorrow, temperatures will be similar today once again under high pressure aloft.
631 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis centered over New Mexico will result in another dry and very hot day across west central Texas.
747 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 A weak upper low pressure system will bring occasional SHRA and TSRA activity to Southeast Michigan today and this evening. Max temps in the low to mid 80s today will lead to MLcapes of 1500-2000 J/kg, and it appears a narrow 850-700 MB Theta- E ridge/moisture axis will be lining up along the M-59 corridor.
A drier airmass will prevail over the area this weekend, keeping precipitation chances confined to the higher Sierra.
The timing of the storms will be later in the day as well moving from southeast to northwest during the late afternoon and evening hours with the highest coverage south of the I-4 corridor. Broad high pressure near Bermuda ridging westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep an ESE wind flow over the eastern gulf waters with sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
Temperatures will remain in the low 90s through the end of the week and with ample cloud cover overnight lows will range in the 50s to 60s for most.
943 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Issued 942 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022) High pressure over Lake Superior will keep winds out of the north and temperatures a bit close to where we were yesterday just without the humidity and all the rainfall. The cold front is stalled over northern IL and it's possible that a storm or two develops over that area and could sneak into the far SE portion of the area.
Thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain of northern Arizona later this afternoon.
730 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Aviation Cold front with lower dew points and north winds behind it is sinking south through the midway point of Lake Michigan and Central Michigan.
Dry and stable conditions in the wake of these showers as they move NW with a slight chance of storms this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain.
526 AM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center over ern NM/TX Panhandle during the next 24 hrs. Mts becoming occasionally obscd in sct-nmrs showers and tstms redeveloping by 18Z over the higher terrain and generally moving slowly to the nw and north. With the upper high center forecast to be over eastern NM or the TX Panhandle, storms are anticipated to move slowly to the northwest or north, in general.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis centered over New Mexico will result in another dry and very hot day across west central Texas.
558 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Today) High pressure is promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with mostly clear skies and light winds prevailing. Most locations, however, will remain dry thanks to subsidence from the ridge and the lack of any real forcing mechanism in place. Highs today will once again peak in the low to mid 90s.
A cold front was dropping into the area this morning, with light northeast winds at across the majority of the area 130 am. Plenty of model support for not as hot temperatures this afternoon centering around the lower and mid 90s.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL, A mostly dry cold front is anticipated to move across the Northern Rockies from the northwest today, increasing westerly winds and creating critical fire weather conditions throughout the region.
550 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate through Friday as it meanders over the Four Corners region. Temperatures will still be hot, but with the lower moisture today, we can expect heat index values to be just a bit lower than yesterday. 4 inches but as an inverted trough pushes through the area, we can expect some increase in these overnight tonight and through Friday when PWATs could reach 1.
1055 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Surface analysis shows the subtropical ridge axis has lifted north of the waters resulting in a deep E/SE flow as seen on the morning Cape (KXMR) sounding. Atlc high pressure ridge axis has lifted north of the waters resulting in an E/SE pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots.
240 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 With a low pressure trough descending on the region from southern Alberta, very hot temperatures and just enough instability are present to allow some scattered high-based thunderstorms to develop off the higher terrain for central Montana. Post-frontal air mass from the Canadian Rockies will spread much cooler air over our region over the next two days.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s for most, and possible upper 60s atop the eastern higher plateau areas.
On Friday, warm air advection continues ahead of a slowly advancing cold front dropping through southwest and central SD during the afternoon. Friday night, increasing upper level support and a cold front slowly dropping southward will bring increasing POPS across north central Nebraska.
341 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A cold front may approach next Thursday to bring higher rain chances. High pressure will ridge into the area from the east through the period. Mins tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Friday will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Going into the weekend, we should see warmer temps and a few afternoon showers each day as we remain on the outskirts of the Bermuda high allowing moisture to remain abundant in the atmosphere.
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved into far northwestern Oklahoma this morning, and while it may slide a little farther south, it will bring only slightly lower temperatures in the north. With the warm temperatures expected this afternoon, we may hit our convective temperature and aid in potential storm development south of the cold front. With the high low-level dewpoint depressions, we could see the potential for some strong winds with any storms that do develop.
High temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along area beaches over the next several days. Latest analysis shows little to no pattern change over the last few days with high pressure offshore and troughing inland. Little to no pattern change for Fri, with high pressure extending over the area from offshore and troughing inland. Low level thickness values and SW flow support highs temps in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches.
This Evening and Tonight: Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will extend across the western Atlantic to the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will persist across the region. Temps should remain mild overnight, dipping into the low- mid 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 at the beaches. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area late week into the weekend.
1041 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Extended POPs further westward through the remainder of this morning, as convection is a bit slower to dissipate than anticipated as the low-level jet weakens. (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved into far northwestern Oklahoma this morning, and while it may slide a little farther south, it will bring only slightly lower temperatures in the north. With the warm temperatures expected this afternoon, we may hit our convective temperature and aid in potential storm development south of the cold front. With the high low-level dewpoint depressions, we could see the potential for some strong winds with any storms that do develop.
Lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to low 70s overnight as warmer air continues to advect into the region. A cold front will bring thunderstorm chances to the area, primarily for west-central Minnesota and points south and east.
1037 AM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Upper flow over the western and central CONUS is weekly ridged, with high pressure over the Desert SW and low pressure over SW Canada. The warm front will slide across the CWA today, and temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and triple digits. As the upper low slides across Canada, its cold front will begin to slowly cross our area Friday and Friday night.
A nearly stalled surface boundary/cold front remains stretched across far northwest Oklahoma, but is expected to eventually lift as a warm front on Friday.
(This evening through Friday Night) Upper-level trough to dig south through the mid-Mississippi River Valley, splitting the prevailing upper-level ridge across the ArkLaTex, and forecast to merge with a westward moving wave across the Gulf of Mexico. Instability associated with the upper- trough will allow for increased convection across much of the region on Friday. Temperatures on Friday are forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s across much of the region with the exception of portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas which could reach the upper 90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s on Friday morning are forecast to mix out into the upper 60s across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma while the remainder of the ArkLaTex will likely experience mostly cloudy skies preventing much mixing.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper ridge currently centered across the Texas panhandle remains in control and will gradually slide northeastward towards Oklahoma/Kansas by Friday. As the center of the ridge drifts off to the north, 850mb temperatures will be tad cooler, allowing our subtle "cooling" trend to continue.
The timing of the storms will be later in the day as well moving from southeast to northwest during the late afternoon and evening hours with the highest coverage south of the I-4 corridor. Daytime highs in the low to mid 90s expected through the remainder of the week with heat indices around 100-103 degrees. Broad high pressure near Bermuda ridging westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep an ESE wind flow over the eastern gulf waters with sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon. High pressure continues to ridge across the Florida peninsula through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Tonight through Friday: High pressure will be centered across the area this evening before gradually shifting east overnight through the day Friday.
116 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Precipitation chances will remain high today and tomorrow as a trough to the west advances into the Ohio River Valley. Getting to the hazards for the afternoon and evening will include isolated strong wind associated with convective downdrafts and flash flooding from training storms in a sufficient moist environment (note, dew points will likely increase into the low-70s throughout the afternoon and PWATS will range between 1. 8 range with a high freezing level and saturated column to the surface.
Hot temperatures under a clear sky will continue through much of the day as a low amplitude upper ridge axis moves across the west and central. Expect mild lows, in the lower 60s to lower 70s. For Friday, temperatures will be cooler behind the front west but much of the south central and southeast will remain on the hot side of the boundary with temperatures rising into mid to upper 90. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible along the cold front but the best chances for strong to severe storms continue to shift south and east of our area.
1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Summary: Quiet today and Friday and trending warmer.
/Updated at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022/ High pressure will strengthen over the southeast US with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today and Friday. low temperatures will be in the lower 70s. high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s though heat indices are going to hover around 100 with areas in western Alabama reaching 102/103.
354 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 As ridging builds in this afternoon and leaves tonight, expect mostly clear skies across the area, save for some diurnal cu (as seen on satellite imagery) and some areas of fog near Lake Superior in Alger and Luce counties this afternoon. With the diurnal cu field dying out, but some slight WAA happening aloft as the ridge leaves, expect temps tonight to dip into the 50s, with a few spots in the interior east (near Newberry) dipping below 50.