Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
232 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A cold front along the the I-35 corridor is expected to edge slowly towards our area tonight and on Tuesday keeping most of our area unseasonably warm for another 24 to 36 hours. If the frontal boundary slows down any tomorrow, a few more record highs will be broken tomorrow afternoon, especially across the east and southeast areas just ahead of the cold front. Warmest temps, as mentioned above, should be over east central and southeast Illinois ahead of the slow moving front with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s northwest to the lower 90s roughly along and especially east of the I-55 corridor.
A weak frontal system is expected to move through the area towards the middle of week, otherwise high pressure is expected. Strong mid level ridging aloft should result in dry and warm weather today. Model data suggest the upper ridge will get suppressed to the south by the middle of the week as the northern end of the Rockies trough shears out across the Great Lakes.
/issued 452 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A deep upper trough currently extends across the Rockies early this morning, with an embedded closed low situated over Wyoming. This low is progged to break away from the main upper trough and lift northeast into the northern Plains by early Tuesday morning, while energy on the back side of the trough closes off a second low over the Great Basin on Tuesday. In the low levels, southeast flow is transporting rich Gulf Moisture across the area. Regional radar imagery shows convection developing across the low rolling Plains and the Permian Basin early this morning.
314 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. Temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year to start the period as the responsible upper-level ridge erodes with an approaching trough from the West.
Think the heaviest rainfall amounts will be along or just west of the KS turnpike, where instability will be the highest. As the front pushes south, cooler more seasonal type temps with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s look to return to the region. Ketcham Ridging looks to shift over the region for Wed night through Fri, with drier air moving into the northern plains. Upper ridging looks to flatten out for the weekend, with chances of showers and a few storms increasing for Sat/Sun. Ketcham The cold front is now moving through the region.
Precipitation chances end from northwest to southeast on Tuesday as the upper level system moves northeast out of the area and the surface cold front continues to push southward.
315 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
An area of low pressure may pull moisture back into eastern Arizona by the middle and end of the week supporting some late season showers and storms. Warmer temperatures expected toward the weekend. Broad level trough situated across the western Lower 48, with the mid-level trough axis extending from eastern Montana toward southeast California, continues to bring cooler-than-normal temperatures to our forecast area. A closed low will develop over the Southwest the next few days, with the flow on the east side of the low drawing some modest low/mid level moisture into eastern Arizona.
During this period, we will be under a weak upper level ridge, between tropical system Maria and the fading upper low along the central Gulf Coast. We will also be under a low level ridge, with a light breeze through the period, generally having a dry northerly component.
The local area is under the effects of a weak high pressure, which is expected to remain through most of the week.
afternoon temperatures look to be a couple degrees cooler across much of the region though still remaining on the warm and humid side of the front.
402 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Deep trough through the Rockies will finally eject the main impulse northeastward across the area later this evening, leaving behind a closed portion around western AZ. Northwest winds should freshen a bit more, and eventually the subsidence with cold advection and passage of the upper trough should work on breaking clouds, but still a seasonably cool day in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The cold front has now progressed into northwest Wisconsin this morning, having moved slowly across northern Minnesota in the last 24 hours. This is going to bring much more fall like weather to the area, and high temperatures today will be significantly cooler than what we had over the weekend, in some cases by as much as 20 degrees cooler.
In the upper levels, weak ridging extends from eastern Cuba and over southern Florida. A weak upper low will persist over the MS/AL coastline through Tuesday morning. Another area of ridging extending over New England will keep Hurricane Maria off the coast of North Carolina as it moves northward. On the surface, high pressure will remain in control of the weather across the Florida peninsula. With high pressure over the region for the next several days, rain chances will be on the low side (10-30%) POPs with seasonal temps expected. Then high pressure moves to the upper Great Lakes and east to New England. pushing a cold front ahead of it that perhaps reaches northern FL during the weekend. with the higher values across the south. High pressure over the gulf will produce predominately dry conditions through the week.
134 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and warm conditions through mid week. A northern stream upper trough will push a cold front through the region from the northwest to start the period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area, it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front.
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper ridging continues to hold strong from New England through the Tennessee Valley as Hurricane Maria sits off the mid-Atlantic coast with another weak low across the Gulf coast. Clearing skies and light winds will promote typical valley fog later tonight into Tuesday morning as temperatures dip into the upper 50s while ridges remain in the low-mid 60s. Anomalous warmth will continue Tuesday with only subtle weakening of the synoptic ridge locally, allowing for temperatures in the mid-upper 80s once again. Northern stream energy from the northern Great Lakes into Ontario will further dampen long-residence ridging, but persistence will once again spell the forecast for Tuesday night with a similar ridge/valley temperature split and areas of valley fog.
and Tuesday As a cold front slowly tracks across the state today into Tuesday, temperatures will be on the decrease while precipitation chances will be on the increase. Early this morning, the cold front extended from near Bayfield to Rice Lake to far southeast Minnesota. The ECMWF and NAM were more west with this low vs the GFS.
In the upper levels a trough is over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a ridge is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface weak high pressure is over the Eastern U. Continued northeasterly flow is bringing slightly drier air in the lower levels.
/issued 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ The upper-level ridge remains centered over the northeast CONUS early this morning with a longwave trough anchored over the west. Closer to our neck of the woods, a closed upper-level cyclone has drifted over the Mid-South, temporarily reducing 500mb geopotential heights (to ~584dam) and providing at least a small opportunity for precipitation. This upper-level low is forecast shear apart today with a portion lifting north around the western side of the anticyclone. With this low departing, mid-level heights will begin to rise and subsidence will increase.
This disturbance was associated with a pesky upper low, which will finally begin to shift southeast of the area over the next day or two.
Brownsville radar indicates a few showers moving northwest across the lower Texas coastal waters early this morning. /issued 430 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas will remain between a large scale mid/upper level trough over the western half of the U. and a mid/upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico with weak mid-level ridging overhead through the period. Moist southeast flow in the low levels and southwest flow aloft will allow deep tropical moisture to increase across the region through the period.
The gives heat index readings in the lower 90s for nearly all of the area, and we will again consider that the main message. ERVIN A chance of showers on Tuesday with a strong cold front then temperatures much cooler in the extended, basically returning to normal temperatures for the last week of September. Tuesday and Tuesday night: Strong cold front arrives but forcing weakens considerably and is mainly post-frontal, as the main upper level trough coming out of the Rockies lifts well to our north into the Upper Midwest.
502 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will hold over the region tonight and will shift east on Tuesday.
With the marginal forcing and shallow layer of moisture around 750 to 800 mb, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the low to medium range south central and mainly low southeast Tuesday. The surface cold front does make it through south central Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon.
319 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. ridge continues to weaken due to the influence of Hurricane Maria drifting north and H5 s/w lifting north through the nrn plains. The ridge will continue to hold across the region on Tuesday. Since the area is on the backside of the ridge, the low level moisture will be on the increase, so there should be an increase in cu for Tuesday. Cold front will be pushing up the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, but the night should be dry. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
326 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Tonight and Tuesday: Continued warmer than normal and with the exception of our northeast, low chances of mainly afternoon and early evening convection is expected through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. /22/ A mid level ridge will begin to build into the region on Tuesday night as the weak upper low that has been partly responsible for the increased moisture values over our region continues to weaken and eject to the SE.
Gusty east winds are possible near the ridge lines tonight and Tuesday night. A ridge of high pressure along the west coast is gradually getting stronger leading to a slow warming trend.
Clouds will begin to thin out a bit overnight in response to a building ridge of high pressure over the region. There will be enough clouds over the region tomorrow to keep temperatures in check around the lower 60s.
Dry air will shift over the region as a ridge builds into the area on Tuesday.
/ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ Temps warming rather quickly this morning and 12z soundings support high temps in the upper 80's NE to the lower 90's SW. 12z soundings show a convective temp around 87 degrees but considering showers are already developing, it's probably a few degrees cooler. Aloft 500mb heights have dropped a few decameters with the weak upper low over the northern Gulf coast.
The main potential weather maker will be a closed upper low embedded within a subtropical ridge. This low is coming out of the central Rockies and into the western Plains, which could give us a shot at some showers and thunderstorms, especially in our west. With slightly higher, yet still modest bulk shear along with modest instability, we may be in store for one or two pulse-type marginal severe storms in our west/northwest, closer to the trough. Looks like the thicker clouds will enter late enough to not be all that much cooler in our west, but perhaps up to 5 degrees cooler than the rest of the CWA.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level ridge dominating the central US, with troughing over the eastern Great Lakes/mid-Atlantic and also in western Canada. Airmass will remain capped through most of the day, with convection likely limited to area very near the trough, and thus have slowed its timing into the CWA until after 00Z.
259 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A weak cold front will move south of the area by late this morning.
A cold front will continue to push south and east across the area today while a rigorous H5 wave passes overhead resulting in height falls. The mean H5 ridge over the area flattens to a fast quasi-zonal flow for this week. Aided by a long wave trough over Alberta, into southern Saskatchewan, a series of waves keep chances for thunderstorms in the forecast most days through the long range period. This as a cold front advances across the state today.
Over the mountains, rather modest monsoon plume remains in place, so expect usual isolated to scattered afternoon and evening tsra over mainly the higher terrain, though coverage and storm intensity should be on a downward trajectory versus yesterday.
Upper level ridge will continue to move eastward during this time period.
1147 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A large upper level high pressure ridge will remain across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains will remain in place into midweek with the polar jet across the Pacific Northwest and Southern Canada, which will push a series of weak cold fronts south across the area.
quiet and a bit warmer today. Large area of strong high pressure producing clear skies. High pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes region today and most of tonight. Temps will moderate today as the core of the cooler air slides east of our region.
226 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Skies will begin to clear later this morning as high pressure builds into the region accompanied by seasonably cool weather to start the week.
High pressure will shift eastward this morning as a frontal system over the Northern Plains approaches the Western Great Lakes Region. Combination of convergence along the front, mu capes increasing to 1500-2000 j/kg Tuesday afternoon, and mid level winds increasing in the wake of the short wave trough and more zonal flow, supports the slight risk day 2 for part of the forecast area.
showers and thunderstorms are possible in the higher elevations.
113 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week. Front will get rolling southward this morning as the main trough axis swings through Ohio. It looks like the best chance to see more organized convection would be late in the day over the ridges. The surface boundary begins to diminish as it encounters the ridges and this will allow for modest low-level convergence to develop, which may be enough to pop a few storms.
638 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A weak cold front will move south of the area by late this morning.
411 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today.
However, developing/deepening low pressure off the B. Coast will suppress the Desert SW ridge over Norcal allowing migratory short waves to pass through Norcal Mon/Tue under SW flow aloft. The heat will be short lived as the high pressure shifts to the east and a weak trough develops over the west coast.
315 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 GOES-16 water vapor loop showed the upper ridge axis extended from north of Lake Superior southwestward across the central Great Plains and Southwest CONUS. A cold front reached from northwest ND through southern MT and ID, and northern NV. The short range models and ensembles are consistent with the gradual east-southeast shift of the upper ridge, with its center over the south central Great Plains by mid-week. The front to the northwest weakens as it progresses southeast into the high plains this afternoon. With CAPEs near 2000 j/kg and 0-6km shear values of 30 kt late this afternoon and early evening over the high plains, isolated strong to marginally severe t-storms will be possible.
The models all pick up on it and activate updrafts as dew points near 70 pool along it, and some pva aloft rotates down the base of the mean trof just to our east. The models all do kill it off the further south it goes as it bumps into warmer air aloft, so we'll keep a slight chance mention over basically our northern 2/3 of the FA for primarily the heating part of the day.
506 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week. Front will finally pick up speed this morning and head southward as the main trough axis swings through Ohio. With a split flow within the trough, the northern wave moving quickly toward Southern Canada and the southern diving through Kentucky, there will be only meager large scale ascent available over the region as the upper level system passes through. It looks like the best location to see more organized convection would be late in the day over the ridges. The surface boundary begins to diminish as it encounters the higher elevations and this will allow for modest low-level convergence to develop, which may be enough to pop a few storms.
A strong upper level ridge gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week bringing a return to hot humid conditions. The latest GOES wv imagery depicts a nearly stationary moist frontal band extending SW-NE along the Carolina coast embedded between a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the subtropical Atlantic. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across NE NC and far SE VA should keep high temperatures in the low 80s with mid/upper 80s farther NW.
409 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Breezy south-southwesterly flow is expected across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front that will stall across central portions of the state. Can't rule out that a storm would be able to produce hail, but with freezing levels near 15K feet, it may be difficult for any hail to reach the surface. An unsettled pattern returns to the area Tuesday through the middle portion of the week, as upper ridge flattens and strong westerlies set up across North Dakota/northern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on precipitation/cloud coverage, but will generally lean toward cooler highs in the lower 80s across southwest Minnesota, to lower-mid 90s through the Missouri River Valley.
This will allow the upper ridge across the central plains to bridge with low amplitude ridging across the southwestern states. The east-west elongated ridge across the center of the nation will will effectively shunt the deeper tropospheric moisture westward as easterly mid-level flow and increased subsidence overspread the South Plains region south of the ridge axis.
657 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Skies will begin to clear later this morning as high pressure builds into the region accompanied by seasonably cool weather to start the week.
Cooling trend begins today as ridge is pushed off to the east and weak troughing develops over the West Coast.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging will begin to slowly build in across the Central Rockies to finish out the period Monday night. A warming trend will continue today as prevailing southeries draw warmer air northward into western Kansas. Hot and dry conditions are likely through the end of the week as upper level ridging sets up and dominates across the Central Plains for much of the period.
A more likely scenario is for overnight TS to focus near a stationary and weak upper low about 70mi W of LBB and PVW. /issued 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/ As has been shown by models for the past couple of days convection has developed along what is left of the cold front. The upper high will build back in fairly quickly mostly shutting off rain chances by the evening. Models have come mostly to a better agreement with the position and strength of the upper high for this coming week with their verdict being the high will dominate the region allowing for mostly warm and dry weather. Both models have the high centered across the Central Plains into the late week before pushing it southeastward to the MS Valley region.
With the upper ridge axis well to the east. The upper ridge builds back up with the fcst area remaining dry thru Wed night. The upper ridge becomes dominant again over the weekend. The upper ridge is off to the east today.
The upper level ridge that produced triple-digit heat across interior portions of our forecast area over the weekend has begun to retreat to the southeast. However, onshore flow is projected to increase through the day, which will allow marine air to gradually cool the low levels and bring about relief from the heat. Little change is forecast for the remainder of the work week as our area will remain under southwest flow aloft between an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and an upper ridge centered over the southern Great Plains. Upper level ridging is then expected to develop over California during the upcoming weekend which should result in at least modest warming.
154 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A dissipating cold front approaches to start the week.
348 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Bermuda high pressure over the western Atlantic will reinforce a warm and humid air mass over New England through much of the week.
Ridging will become more dominate beginning midweek and the thunderstorm chance will diminish. Hot conditions will be associated with the ridging and heat advisories may be required by the end of the week. Considerable moisture will continue through tonight especially in the east section associated with the remnants of a cold front and ahead of an upper trough.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging will begin to slowly build in across the Central Rockies to finish out the period Monday night. A warming trend will continue today as prevailing southeries draw warmer air northward into western Kansas. Even hotter weather can be expected by Tuesday and on through the week as upper level ridging prevails. High temperatures during the week may rise to near or even slightly above 100 degrees with lows mainly in the high 60s to mid 70s. Light southeasterly winds will persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly develops across eastern Colorado. Winds will turn more southerly mid to late Monday morning while increasing to 15 to 25kt as the lee side trough strengthens.
It should remain quiet this afternoon for the most part, although some isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out over far northwestern OK within mid level thetae ridge axis and on the western periphery of the mid level ridge. Elsewhere, mid to upper level temps will continue to increase under the ridge and any diurnal activity should remain very isolated if not nonexistent.
An upper level trough will remain in place across the southeast today and this will help to keep the CWA in a more active pattern.
An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will help push our weak ridge to the south and allow the Gulf Coast sea breeze to push further inland on Monday.
Weak upper troughing will remain over the area today between upper ridges over the western Atlantic and the central U. Convection will weaken and decrease tonight but may linger over se Ga due to proximity of upper troughing. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 70s.
445 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Latest upper level analysis places an expanding area of high pressure over the southwest CONUS with a separate area of anti- cyclonic flow over the east-central Plains. Deterministic guidance keeps enough low/mid level moisture around today between the two high pressure systems to warrant isolated mention of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Forcing will be limited to old outflow boundaries and a developing lee trough in the afternoon.