Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
324 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
126 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
305 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ONE MORE DAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW.
322 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. AS A MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE ANY AREAS OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE ABOVE MENTION DECREASING IN CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS FIELD TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. A NEAR CALM SURFACE WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S AND IN SOME PLACES INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. ENERGY WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE SWRN CONUS IS SUPPOSED TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW IS LOCATED OVER SRN CALIF EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ADVANCE TO THE ESE ACROSS SRN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS EWD INTO THE WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
123 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THEN A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
203 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE ANTICIPATED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALREADY APPARENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE REGION. FLANKED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRES SPINNING OVER SRN CA AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE SE COAST. AS THE UPR RIDGE CONTINUES EAST.
OUR PESKY UPPER LOW HAS WOBBLED A BIT FURTHER EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 500 MB HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE.
358 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 THE UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED NORTHEAST OFF SHORE JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND RIDGING ALOFT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. 41 PATTERN STILL DOMINATED BY NW FLOW ALOFT AS SW CONUS UPPER LOW GETS CUTOFF FROM WESTERLIES AND SINKS SOUTH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BE.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO REGION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING DRY WITH THE EXECPETION OF A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SPRINKLES.
156 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SK. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. WITH 60S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS NOT MOVED MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LOW MOVING MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED TO OUR EAST. BASED ON WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE WEST A BUILDING MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH THIS PATTERN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS GIVEN A PERSISTENT LOW STATUS DECK FOR DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF SLOWLY TODAY ALLOWING FOR BETTER SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH UNDERCUT THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT PACKS VERY LITTLE PUNCH WITH REGARDS TO LIFT AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS LIMITING HIGHS TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
356 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH THU.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND KEEP CONDITIONS WARM. A LARGE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE REDWOOD COAST. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY OVER THE WATERS.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILD ON ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
403 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015 UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT.
1145 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BROAD AND RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONLY OTHER WEATHER ITEM OF NOTE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MT TOMORROW AFTN AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW HEADING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA PUSHES INTO IDAHO.
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
ONLY SOME PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH ANY MOISTURE OF SIGNIFICANCE LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS /THUS LITTLE TO NO LLVL CLOUDS/.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
228 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN AND BE SUPRESSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND.
AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE IS DRAPED ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
210 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
1219 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BREEZY. THIS WILL HELP LOWS TO BE A WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS THEY MIX TO THE GROUND. EVEN IF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT MIX TO THE GROUND. DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
253 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MEANDER AROUND IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
1230 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
19z water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified trough ridge pattern over the western to Central CONUS. Depending on actual extent of cloud cover and duration, will likely impact the high temperatures. Expect enough of a pressure gradient to stay in place overnight to keep breezy southerly winds advecting warmer air into the region with lows Thursday morning in the upper 50s/near 60. This trough will quickly shift eastward into the central U. Thursday and Thursday night, helping to push the associated cold front into north central Kansas as early as late morning and progressing eastward across the CWA through the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures should be able to reach into the upper 60s/low 70s Thursday before the front moves through, with cooler air surging into the area that evening with lows dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
1245 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-OHIO RIVER VALLEY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT SANDHILLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM REGARDING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LOWEST LAYERS MAY MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CEILINGS LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A KONL TO KBBW LINE.
136 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS A SHEARING TROF SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. A VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN MID- UPPER LEVELS WAS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIDGE POSITION. AN UPPER TROF WAS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY SQUELCH DENSE FOG FORMATION EXCEPT WITHIN RIDGE AND MOUNTAINTOP CLOUDS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMIT DEEPER MIXING.
THE CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FEED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE LEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK IN. AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN THERE MAY BE A RASN MIX HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING COUNTER- CLOCKWISE AROUND THE TROUGH CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
1138 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
230 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 NO BREAK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A S/WV IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
1156 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN AND BE SUPRESSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND.
1210 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
329 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Upper level southwest flow was firmly in place with trough continuing to amplify over the Great Basin and southern Rockies as it slides east.
336 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION. TAKING A LOOK AT THE SFC PATTERN THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SLIDE MAINLY INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY. BUT DID KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR 15KTS GUSTS OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N CENTRAL UPPER MI.
/ISSUED 333 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-RECORD HIGHS BUT IT ALL ENDS WITH A COLD ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE WITH SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH THE ENTIRE WRN TROF SHIFTING E. GRI: 78 IN 1909 (FCST HIGH: 75) HSI IS IN THE LOW 80S AND NOT CLOSE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE FINALLY IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FURTHER EAST.
MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE WILL BE RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MAINLY STAY CLOSE OR ABOVE FREEZING. EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND WITH MINOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
LARGE WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROF PASSING THROUGH IOWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE FORCING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AS TROF PASSES INTO THE PLAINS. THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO ERODE WITH COOLING ALOFT AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH GULF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION, SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER CIGS TO MIX OUT AND RISE BACK TO VFR BY LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DIG CLOSER TO THE REGION. THOUGH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP THE REGION CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TOMORROW OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE TROUGH GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. TOMORROW NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AND DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES. WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
1036 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
The high temp headache yesterday happened as expected. PoPs in the low chance or slight category.
SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE H5 TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ALLOWING THE GULF RIDGE TO DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS WITH DIGGING LOW ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER. LOW IS OVER NRN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH SCNTRL SD. SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS OUTSIDE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. BUT BETTER CHANCE OVER NERN WY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. 130KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF THIS MRNG WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PCPN THAT WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN SD EARLY IN THE EVE. MOST LIKELY ON THE HIGHER HILLS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF PINE RIDGE.
309 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US IS AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. ON THURSDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ORGANIZED STRONGER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BUT A SMALL LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING INCREASES CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD GENEROUS MIXING.
325 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARIB/FL STRAITS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES WEST.
STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED BACK IN THE COOL AIR SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE A JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AS COMPARED TO THE EC/GEM.
1243 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
300 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THEREAFTER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE WARMER LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO HOLD ONTO A PUFF OF WIND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S HAVE KEPT MOST FOG FORMATION AT BAY. H500 RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE UNIFORMLY WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS AND WIND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA DRY WHILE MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS TRACK WILL EASILY BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE CWA BUT WITH LITTLE PUSH FROM BEHIND.
119 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL FOR THE LAST 8 HOURS HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF FLAGSTAFF THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO CHANGE ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL OTHER PERIODS PAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN UNCHANGED AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
337 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING COUNTER- CLOCKWISE AROUND THE TROUGH CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
An upper level trof is progged to move eastward from the Rockies Wednesday evening into Thursday.
258 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MEANDER AROUND IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND THEY WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES.
AVAILABLE MODELS CONCUR THAT CAP IS RATHER STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SHOWERY AND MAINLY WEST WHERE THETA-E RIDGE RESIDES.
1252 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH FAIR SKIES.