Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE WINDOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY BIG AS SHORT RANGE MODELS TAKE THE HIGHEST CAPES AND SHEAR INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY VERY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEST WILL HAVE CELL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CRUISE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL BE HELPED ALONG BY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION NORTH OF BILLINGS. THIS WILL CAUSE A CONCERN FOR BIG WIND GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ACCELERATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WITH STRONG WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER POST FRONTAL.
HUSTON A MINOR UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST IS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOV THRU THE RIDGE RESULTING IN ISOLD TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVE AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRIGGER ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LEMHI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS HOT AND DRY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST.
72 INCHES ON THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING) AND BROAD STACKED RIDGING KEPT CONVECTION ISOLATED TODAY. WITH THE STACKED RIDGE STILL OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
BUT BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND TO CAP MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN IN OUR VICINITY TAKES A TEMPORARY JOG NORTHWARD. ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS RIDGE WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. WE WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THRU THE WRN DAKOTAS AND REACHING THE CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NEARLY IDENTICAL SET UP TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE MEAN FLOW. THEN WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. AND DISSIPATES/MOVES THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER TEXAS.
957 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR.
942 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
756 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015 COLD FRONT ADVANCED SOUTH OF I90 THIS EVENING AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
1152 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING FARTHER SOUTH - INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
1127 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER SW INTO TEXAS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NE ACROSS NE TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VC OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS WHICH STILL REMAINS OVER EXTREME ERN OK INTO ECNTRL TX. THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS SHOULD ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES SW TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FLAT FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN POP-FREE AND HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ON MONDAY.
802 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER WITH RESULTING DRY. SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY AS COLD FRONT WILL KEEP STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BUT A SURGE OF SLIGHT COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE ARE PROGGED IN HERE MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE 3-5 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S EVENTUAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A STRONG EARLY SUMMER UPPER RIDGE PATTERN TAKING HOLD OF THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS FLAT UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL MANAGE TO PRODUCE LIMITED WHICH MODELS SHOW PRODUCING RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO.
MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NE OF I-74. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW. ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NE ACROSS NE TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VC OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS WHICH STILL REMAINS OVER EXTREME ERN OK INTO ECNTRL TX. THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS SHOULD ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES SW TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FLAT FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN POP-FREE AND HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
731 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
803 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND PERSIST MUCH OF THIS WEEK BRINGING BACK MORE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA IN VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. AN EXPANDING RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION BEFORE REACHING THE FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE FA TOMORROW WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH BRINGING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. RIDGE WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
6 INCHES AND UPPER LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST COULD HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO MAYBE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. 42 LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WENT THROUGH US YESTERDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WEAK FRONT BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
/ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TUE THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD OFFERS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. WHILE ON THU A WEAK INVERTED TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FRI AND SAT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF THAT SENDS A CDFNT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. 13 A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES RIDGING OVER THE GULF.
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO NEAR 90S DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHEN AS DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION AS FAR NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MIGRATE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA THAT REMAINS TROUGH MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS NEAR CSV.
1229 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL EXTEND COOLER COASTAL AIR. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SYNOPTIC AIR MASS DOWN 2-3C AS UPPER HIGH IS NOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA TO OUR EAST.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Latest mdl guidance continues to suggest focus for TSRA will shift nwd this evening as the s/w pushes ewd and upper level ridging builds into the area. This shud help keep temps warmer and have trended twd the warmer guidance.
719 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WARANAUSKAS /ISSUED 756 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ FXUS65 KTFX 220156 AFDTFX NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 756 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015 COLD FRONT ADVANCED SOUTH OF I90 THIS EVENING AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE REGION. FARTHER INLAND WHERE THE EASTWARD-DRIFTING PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD KILL THE WINDS THERE IS BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THIS WEEK. MUCH COOLER INLAND TODAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER IN LIVERMORE THIS AFTERNOON FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF SHEARS INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY COMPRESS SOMEWHAT.
835 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRETCH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE STARTS TO TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE LATER IN ADVANCE OF OUR FRONT COMING BACK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SOME VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTREMES TO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
DOWNBURST WINDS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SURFACE AND SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY AT OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST LOWS. NEARLY IDENTICAL SET UP TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE MEAN FLOW. THEN WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. AND DISSIPATES/MOVES THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER TEXAS.
734 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEK.
RIDGING SW TO THE NW GULF. ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTROLLED OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED OFF OF THE GA/FL COAST. AND A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS IN PLACE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST. THE LATTER OUTPUT MODEL HAD ITS STRONGER PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING IN NORTHEAST KS. THE COLD FRONT WILL END THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT.
253 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE POTENT UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE AMT OF DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD IN THE WAVE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT.
518 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. FRIES SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND WITH A COLD FRONT.
The stratus should move into KABI around daybreak as a weak cold front moves in. Added VCTS at KSJT and KBBD towards noon as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along the dissipating cold front. /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Look for another hot and dry day across West Central Texas today, before another cold front brings cooler air and rain chances tonight.
THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO BROADSCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. PLAN ON COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AUTUMN-LIKE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL THEN BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
539 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 This afternoon and tonight: Mid-afternoon water vapor imagery and upper level analysis indicated a vigorous upper level trough propagating east across the northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was analyzed across northeastern Kansas. A stationary front extended east-northeast from the low into northern Missouri with a cold front extending southwest from the low into northwestern Oklahoma. Continued cooling of mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough axis should promote the potential for surface-based convection into at least early this evening.
358 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 The much anticipated cold front extends from eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma at this time and will sweep southeast across the area tonight. The first signs of surface based development along the cold front are being seen at this time in western Oklahoma.
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 COLD FRONT IS LYING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME.
446 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PERIOD.
A warmer westerly upper flow pattern will bring warmer temperatures for Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER TEXAS AND IS THE DOMINANT PLAYER. WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. MOVING INTO TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEEN PERCENT RANGE.
COOLER. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY NORTHERLY THEN EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGES WHICH MEANS MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
237 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE WAS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LONGMONT ANTI-CYCLONE IN PLACE. WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO COME IN LATE DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS HANG ON TO SOME SORT OF UPSLOPE THIS EVENING. SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
125 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 WARM DRY WEATHER, WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY, COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A STRONG 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
238 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. ONLY APPRECIABLE EFFECT FOR THE UPPER OHIO REGION WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND WITH A COLD FRONT.
229 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS E. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE OUT AND WARMER LOWS IN THE W. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL AID IN WARMER HIGHS AROUND 93-96 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO LINGER IN THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE IN OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. /ISSUED 311 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN FLATTENING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED SW-NE ACROSS KANSAS.
WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOMINATE CONDITIONS TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
A cold front will move across our region early Saturday, bringing cooler weather and a chance of showers. The debris cloudiness from mcs activity in the Lower Missouri Valley is not likely to play much of a role in our weather today. The cold front will reach southern IL and southeast MO very late tonight. This activity will continue along and immediately behind the front as it crosses the Lower Ohio Valley in the morning hours Saturday. The cold front will exit western KY early in the afternoon. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s behind the front to the lower 80s ahead of the front. On Saturday night, cooler air will filter southward into our area on light north winds.
302 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 This afternoon and tonight: Mid-afternoon water vapor imagery and upper level analysis indicated a vigorous upper level trough propagating east across the northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was analyzed across northeastern Kansas. A stationary front extended east-northeast from the low into northern Missouri with a cold front extending southwest from the low into northwestern Oklahoma. Continued cooling of mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough axis should promote the potential for surface-based convection into at least early this evening.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM MUCH WARMER (16 TO 18 DEGREES CELSIUS). WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN PUSHING EASTWARD. FURTHER NORTH UNDER INFLUENCE OF TROUGH WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AND WITH LESS FORCING HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. 14 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER AREA AROUND HETTINGER WHERE WE DROPPED LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S.
A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST MEASURED AMOUNT SO FAR HAS BEEN 3.
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THIS HIGH SHOULD CAUSE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
255 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has moved south, and is centered over nrn Mexico, courtesy of a trough pushing thru the Midwest. Trailing the upper trough is a cold front, which latest sfc obs/analysis has just entering the Texas Panhandle, w/3-4 mb/3-hr pressure rises behind. Latest buffer soundings bring the pre-frontal trough thru KMAF at around 10Z Saturday, w/the main front around 16Z. Cold front is forecast to stall somewhere in the lwr Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon, before retreating north a bit Saturday evening as sfc flow begins veering back to the ESE, w/convection tapering off after midnight. The upper ridge then returns, and remains over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into the extended. Rain chances will be confined to the NW zones, nearest the theta-e ridge axis to the NW.
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WE EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WARMER. A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WILL HELP TO FIRE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW OF OUR AREA.
afternoon water vapor imagery showing a nicely defined neutrally tilted trough axis digging through the Central Plains. Dry air will quickly move in by Saturday morning as high pressure builds south across the Central Plains/upper Miss Rvr Vly.