Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A nice, quiet day is on tap today for the first day of Fall with mostly sunny skies, above average temperatures (highs in the low 70s to low 80s), and southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. Essentially, the day begins with a thermal ridge located over the eastern Rockies/western Plains. Zonal flow aloft will advect this warmer dry air into the area leading to temperatures that are 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year, especially in western North Dakota. The one concern with warmer temperatures and continued dry air is in regards to fire weather.
429 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A cold front on Wednesday is expected to bring increasing clouds and breezy winds across portions of central and eastern Washington.
Temperatures will be significantly warmer today under ridging and clear skies. Afternoon highs will be up to the lower 80s across the plains and 60s and 70s in the high country. Flow aloft will decrease and turn more westerly as the ridge axis moves overhead during the afternoon and evening. Light winds will mitigate fire danger for the lower terrain, while elevated fire danger is possible in the high country during the afternoon as winds gust just over 20 mph. Expect warmer overnight lows, in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the lower elevations and upper 20s to lower 40s in the high country.
609 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Busy start to the short term as approaching cold front currently situated over the SE progresses eastward towards the CWA. This cold front will be the main player in the short term, making it to the metro ATL area during the morning/early afternoon. Morgan The cool, dry airmass that moves into the CWA behind the cold front at the beginning of the period is quite dry for this time of year.
Southerly winds will pick up today in response to the lee-side trough. High temperatures today should be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer over yesterday, mainly across the central and western Panhandles, where the best downslope winds will be.
Today Through Thursday Night Cooler and drier airmass contd to advect into AR early this mrng behind a CDFNT that moved thru on Tue. Expect rather cool nighttime temps with lows in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Still expect to see some locations dipping into the lower 40s late tngt.
421 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a cold front just southeast of our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although cooler and drier air was filtering into our CWA in the wake of the cold front, upper level troughing over our CWA associated with the closed low was helping produce a broken band some light showers nearly along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Under clear skies and a near calm wind, strong radiational cooling of our cool dry airmass will lead to temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Our normal morning lows run in the lower 60s.
Highs will be a bit warmer than yesterday, ranging from the low to mid 70s east to the lower 80s west. A nice, quiet day is on tap today for the first day of Fall with mostly sunny skies, above average temperatures (highs in the low 70s to low 80s), and southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. Essentially, the day begins with a thermal ridge located over the eastern Rockies/western Plains. Zonal flow aloft will advect this warmer dry air into the area leading to temperatures that are 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year, especially in western North Dakota. The one concern with warmer temperatures and continued dry air is in regards to fire weather.
533 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Warmer & drier over the next 24-48 hours w/ upper-level ridging in place across the region. Highs may very well trend even warmer for Thursday with some readings near 85 deg F possible.
325 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Warmer & drier over the next 24-48 hours w/ upper-level ridging in place across the region. Highs may very well trend even warmer for Thursday with some readings near 85 deg F possible.
A low pressure trough was advancing into Portland with an obvious split with the NRN branch which is sweeping through WRN Canada. Huston Current satellite imagery shows weak high pressure ridging centered over southeast Idaho with troughing off the OR/WA coast. With this high pressure along with dry and cool air, expect one more morning of near freezing temperatures for the Snake plain this morning. The high pressure quickly breaks down and moves east as the trough moves east this morning. Models continue to show this trough/system splitting with a weak and mostly dry upper level developing over our southwest areas late this afternoon into early evening. Light showers are expected mainly over our southwest areas with this low. This trough will have a weak cold front associated with it.
Light winds and clear skies across the region overnight led to one of our cooler nights in a while, as 3 AM temperatures across the region were in the 40s. High pressure will remain in control today, but slowly shift eastward with winds gradually becoming more southerly as we go through the day and night. This will set the stage for a slightly warmer day on Thursday, as highs get back into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The well advertised cold front has pushed south of the CWA with only a couple of post-frontal showers continuing in the southwest CWA. Secondly, out east where winds will be near 15 to 20 mph, humidity values should stay just above 20 percent and winds will also begin to weaken by the early afternoon hours and be around 12-18 mph during the time period of the lowest humidity values.
1157 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Through the day today, an upper-level closed low is forecast to propagate slowly eastward over the eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes while deepening as it becomes vertically stacked with a developing and quickly occluding low-level cyclone across IN and OH. However, as the closed low deepens, it will promote another round of light stratiform rain forming across IL this morning into afternoon driven by mid-level deformation that could edge into south-central IL. Precip should exit this area by evening as the closed low begins to depart to the northeast and large-scale subsidence becomes increasingly dominant over the Midwest.
Current temperatures are only in the mid 70s, thanks to several days of CAA to the west of the strengthening upper low over the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures have fallen as expected this morning with areas in our northern CWA from Douglas to Kanabec counties seeing temperatures in the low 40s and even upper 30s in some spots, with the coldest temperatures in north-central MN in the mid 30s. Fair weather cumulus will be the story as far as cloud cover goes once again today, with ridging building over the region promoting large scale subsidence aside from diurnal mixing.
Embedded in mean ridging aloft, this wave will continue to move southeast across portions of central and eastern North Dakota through the day. The progressive upper ridge axis moves overhead tonight. The ridge then begins to flatten as a strong upper low deepens over northern Saskatchewan. At the surface, low pressure will develop over northern Ontario with a cold front extending southeast to northwestern North Dakota by late morning or early afternoon. This cold front will sweep across the state, bringing breezy northwest winds to the west and portions of the central by the afternoon. The surface cold front will move east by Thursday night.
Good radiational cooling can be expected tonight due to the clear sky, light wind, and surface dew points dropping into the lower 40s. Dry, quiet weather will continue through Thursday night with temperatures generally a degree or two warmer Thursday and Thursday night, although still at least slightly below normal.
1133 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Skies were clear across the forecast area again overnight as a transitory ridge of high pressure built overhead. Strong radiational cooling allowed temperatures to fall below freezing at KCAG where a Freeze Warning remained in effect. According to models, the ridge axis is driven east of the Continental Divide today as a mid-level trough moves over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The trough deepens as it moves over Great Basin tonight spreading high clouds across much of the forecast area late. Cloud cover in combination with warmer afternoon temperatures today will result in milder overnight lows. The trough deepens further on Thursday as its axis settles over Utah during the afternoon.
Warmer & drier over the next 24-48 hours w/ upper-level ridging in place across the region. Highs may very well trend even warmer for Thursday with some readings near 85 deg F possible.
By tonight, we'll start to see a push of mid level WAA as a weak wave over tops the incoming ridging. Will favor the warmer half of guidance with 75th percentile surface temps in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
Surface cold front is moving through the area now as an area of low pressure deepens over Ohio. The cold front has made it through the area this afternoon with conditions starting to improve at CHA. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 71 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 68 48 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 69 47 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 67 43 72 46 / 10 10 0 0 0.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Breezy northerly winds and mostly cloudy skies continue across the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of this morningâs cold front. Low temps will range from the middle to upper 60s in the lower Rio Grande Valley to the upper 50s in the northern ranchlands both tonight and Thursday night. The trend of cooler temperatures continues for Thursday as north to northeast winds pick up slightly while high pressure builds into the area.
Morning model runs have the incoming trough splitting a little less, and thus show what few showers they have a little further north in the central Idaho mountains. An increase in northwest wind behind this weak system and cold front tonight and tomorrow, with a bit enhanced surface winds in the Magic Valley on Thursday, and slightly lower temperatures everywhere. Light showers/virga possible along a cold front passage this afternoon and evening. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: WSW 10-20 kt, turning NNW behind a cold front this evening.
203 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 An upper-level trough is slowly moving out of the Quad State to the northeast late this afternoon and evening. A large temperature gradient exists with afternoon temperatures near 60 in the Tri-State to the lower 70s near and west of the Mississippi River. Troughing, with northwesterly flow aloft, continues tomorrow as temperatures stay well below average, though a slow northward retreat begins.
Upper low has allowed the low cigs and scattered showers to linger in Middle Tennessee.
242 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 An upper level ridge axis will have just passed over southern Colorado at the beginning of the forecast period. To the west of the ridge axis is a sharp trough that will begin to propagate over Utah and western Colorado throughout this forecast period. There is concern that the mountain valleys will reach below freezing again tonight. Over the plains and Teller County the minimum temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 High pressure dominates the surface weather pattern today between two regions of upper-level lower heights. An upstream ridge makes an attempt at building into tonight, while getting squeezed between upper-level disturbances. Calm winds and clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to reach the low 40s to low 30s in our typical cold spots. The downstream upper-level low turns north on Thursday to march over the mitten of Michigan before it's picked up by the next trough Thursday night. Overall, dry northerly flow associated with the squashed Upper Mississippi Valley ridging will keep similar weather for Thursday that we had Wednesday.
1221 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A closed mid/upper-level low is predicted to deepen today as it shifts eastward across the OH Valley, within the base of a broader longwave trough encompassing much of the Eastern CONUS. At the surface, northwest winds will continue to increase as breaks occur in the low stratus deck, with sustained speeds of 15-20 MPH and gusts in the 25-30 MPH range anticipated this afternoon (especially in higher terrain locations). Temperatures 10-15 degrees F below normal continue in this cooler air mass with calm winds and clear skies. Highs remain chilly on Thursday with most areas in the low 70s and higher terrain topping out in the upper 60s.
332 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the area this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will likely stay several degrees below normal. Long range ensembles indicate that high pressure early this weekend will be followed by a cold frontal passage later in the weekend which will result in precip chance. Wind will shift to SW/WSW behind the cold front and cigs are expected to improve back to MVFR heights through the overnight.
Lows mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s, although a few colder low lying areas such as Sterling City may make another run into the lower 40s (or even upper 30s). A little bit warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 80s.
The period starts off with s/w ridging over the forecast area.
The slight increase in theta-e advection across the western portions of the CWA overnight will keep temperatures a bit warmer than what was observed this past morning as it offsets substantial radiative cooling processes, with lows bottoming out in the lower 40s across the northwestern South Plains and lower 50s elsewhere. Weak surface cyclogenesis near the Raton Mesa will occur by tomorrow afternoon as a subtle, mid-level perturbation rotates atop the de-amplifying ridge, resulting in breezy south winds as the pressure gradient tightens and high temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today. This will occur as a more substantial trough/low traverses central Canada.
The pattern will be one of the more predominant ridge axis to our west over the Rockies and NW type flow over the Lower MS River Valley.
(This evening through Thursday) The 18Z surface observations place the ridge axis near/along a line from Childress to Clinton, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70's. As this high pressure system shifts east overnight, light winds veer predominantly to the S/SE by Thursday morning. The warming trend begins tomorrow as the upper ridge enters the area and southerly surface winds increase, especially over northwest Oklahoma.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Northerly winds in wake of yesterday's front continues to bring in cooler and drier air across the region. Expect these low dewpoints and cooler temperatures to continue tonight and again on Thursday, as temperatures will remain around 7 to 10 degrees below normal. Morning lows on tomorrow will likely fall into the low 50s, with some upper 40's possible across the northern half of the region. By Thursday afternoon, high pressure will remain at the sfc, with broad upper-level ridging across the SW CONUS keeping dry northwesterly flow aloft over the area. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for a slight warm-up, although temps will remain about 5 to 7 degrees below normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Dry high pressure builds into the region in the wake of a cold front which has nearly exited east of the area. Dry conditions follow through Wednesday along with cooler temperatures flowing into the area. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to around 60 at the immediate coast.
Surface cold front is moving through the area now as an area of low pressure deepens over Ohio. A line of showers associated with a cold front will be moving in from the west over the next few hours. Clouds are expected to remain MVFR at TRI through tonight due to the midlevel low pressure center crossing over that area. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 51 71 50 75 / 80 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 50 68 48 73 / 80 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 49 69 47 73 / 90 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 49 67 43 72 / 80 10 10 0 0.
However, the typically cooler locations in Wisconsin around the cranberry bog region may dip to near freezing. Over the local area, high pressure continues to dominate with mostly sunny skies and temperatures increasing into the 60s for the afternoon. A closed, stacked, low-pressure system slowly migrates into the southern Great Lakes region as the previously mentioned trough axis progresses eastward through the northern Great Plains.
1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure will begin to build back over the area today, kicking off the gradual warming trend to come over the next few days. However, for today and tonight, the cooler airmass will remain in place over the area through tonight and will keep daytime temperatures in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Had to adjust overnight/morning lows slightly warmer today given the slower than expected cooling we have seeing during the overnight period.
126 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 The region will remain under the influence of high pressure through tomorrow, with highs warming a few degrees in the plains Thursday, and the higher elevations seeing temperatures stabilize. Tonight will be warmer, but clear skies will still allow for decent radiational cooling, possibly enough for some localized patchy frost again across some of the river valleys in the plains.
157 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A deep upper trough and cold front will cross the area this evening and overnight. The front will move offshore tonight as high pressure builds into the region, bringing much drier and cooler air into the region for Thursday through the weekend. The cold front will move through northern GA and western SC this afternoon. Drier air has moved into the lower levels which will result in increased thunderstorm potential. High confidence in the forecast this period with strong model consensus showing cooler and drier weather over our area. The cold front will be pushing off the coast Thursday morning with cooler and drier high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley building into the region.
A closed mid/upper-level low is predicted to deepen today as it shifts eastward across the OH Valley, within the base of a broader longwave trough encompassing much of the Eastern CONUS. At the surface, northwest winds will continue to increase as breaks occur in the low stratus deck, with sustained speeds of 15-20 MPH and gusts in the 25-30 MPH range anticipated this afternoon (especially in higher terrain locations). Temperatures 10-15 degrees F below normal continue in this cooler air mass with calm winds and clear skies. Highs remain chilly on Thursday with most areas in the low 70s and higher terrain topping out in the upper 60s.
153 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Temperatures are on track to continue rising into the low 80s this afternoon. A relatively strong pressure gradient over the mountains ignited some weak gap flow that had Livingston area gusting up to 40 mph this morning, but should die down this evening as the cold front makes its way through us. Although staying dry, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, and northwest winds will have some speeds in the east up to 20 mph as 850 mb winds will be 30-35 kts, and low-level should mix out to at least that level.
Many of us will see lows tonight that last occurred back in May, as values dipping into the low to mid 40s under clear skies and light winds. Highs Thursday will be slightly warmer vs. today with 925-850 hPa temperatures climbing a few degrees, with more widespread values in the low 70s.
An upper level low is located across eastern Missouri early this morning. The low will move off to the east today. A cooler air mass is moving into the area with the upper level low. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 50s across the area early this morning. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs will only top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon. Lows tonight into Thursday morning will fall into the lower to middle 40s. Cooler conditions will occur again on Thursday as highs in the lower to middle 70s occur, as the upper level low stalls over the Ohio Valley. An upper level ridge will then start to move east towards the region late this week.
255 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Pattern aloft consists of digging E CONUS trough to our north with weak ridging south of the state extending from the W Atlantic, with weak ridging at the surface ahead of an approaching cold front over the panhandle.
1135 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period with high pressure in place.
Cold front will move into SE GA late this afternoon, then slowly move to the southeast of forecast area through the night. Bands of showers and storms will develop in moist and diurnally unstable airmass ahead of front, in prefrontal troughing. Significantly drier air will advect into region overnight, and through the day Thursday, as high pressure builds from the northwest. Lingering cloud cover anticipated over NE FL following frontal passage Thursday, otherwise a trend toward sunny skies is expected, allowing temperatures to moderate into the lower to mid 80s. This will make it feel noticeably cooler despite highs only running about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Today.
After a chilly start this morning with many locales dipping into the upper 30s and low 40s, we are on track to see highs in the low 70s across western Minnesota with upper 60s elsewhere. Temperatures are some 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, primarily across western and central Minnesota, as a 500mb ridge slowly works eastward. Overnight lows will not be quite as cold with warmer air advecting into the region through the day tomorrow. Winds will continue to be light and variable before increasing and becoming southerly ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday afternoon.
Another relatively chilly night expected, with forecast lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees, as high pressure settles just east of the region. Thursday temperatures will warm about 5 degrees from today's readings into the 70s-80s, as southerly flow increases and upper ridging builds in from the west.
153 PM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Dry and warmer weather this week. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough tracking through the region this afternoon, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to most areas. Current temperatures are running 2 to 5 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago, with upper 80s to low 90s across the Valley. This system has also resulted in gusty southwest winds across the high Sierra and southern Cascades; current wind gusts range from 20 to 25 mph. Ensemble guidance shows the trough digging into the Great Basin area Thursday, resulting in breezy offshore winds early Thursday morning through evening.
1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 The upper trough axis continues to move across the region overnight and will continue to move east today as it strengthens into a deep closed low over the ohio valley by tonight. Meanwhile the western CONUS ridge will slide east as well, resulting in northwest flow/weak ridging overhead today and tomorrow. A central great basin trough axis will tighten up the sfc pressure gradient across the area tomorrow brining breezy south- southwest winds to the area. This will help increase afternoon high temps into the low 80s. A deep upper trough is progged to develop over Manitoba by tomorrow night.
/issued 1043 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021/ Overall forecast is on track, with much drier air, plenty of sun and afternoon temperatures expected to climb to near 80 in the wake of the cold front that pushed through the area last night.
The strong cold front that's ushering in much cooler temperatures and drier air on this first official day of fall is quickly moving southeastward. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast through the extended.