Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
919 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BRING A CLOUDY AND CHILLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE AIR MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW OR SLEET TO MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ AND MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEABREEZE. TEMPS: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BASED ON 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES. LOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD, WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE, ESPECIALLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY THEN MOVE NORTH OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS KS MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FORMS AND STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50 KT. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOLLOWS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AS MOISTURE LATER TO ARRIVE AND NOT AS DEEP. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE THE WEST COAST NOSES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. MARGINAL DRYING INDICATED IN MODEL DATA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/S AS 7H VALUES RISE 2 TO 4 DEGREES BUT. STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CO AND NM AND THE PAN HANDLES AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
Under the southeastern corner of stacked high pressure, deep layer flow over our area will be from the east-northeast today and tonight. Temperatures will peak in the low-mid 90s this afternoon, with heat indices peaking around 100, then dip to the lower 70s overnight.
326 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH.
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTH TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST.
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERNS.
I'M NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH IT HOLDING TOGETHER AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ITS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM GROWTH AS IT NEARS THE STATE. THE STORY OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NW TX EXTENDS MAINLY ALONG A W-E AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO ARKANSAS. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH OVER SOUTH TX AND IS PREVENTING DEEP POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM DEVELOPING INTO SHOWERS.
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BUT STALL OVER THE EAST. RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U. AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.
Ahead of the much anticipated trough, we will see a slot of dry air move into northwest Montana late this afternoon. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will linger into this evening and overnight as an vigorous trough currently digging along the Oregon Coast moves inland and approaches the Northern Rockies. High-resolution forecast models are in good agreement that a moderate precipitation band will set up oriented southwest to northeast across the forecast area in response to forcing from the trough.
THERE IS PLENTY OF HUMIDITY OUT THERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OR EVEN A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRUDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLIDE NORTH AND BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WAS DYING AS IT MOVED INTO UPPER RIDGE OVER MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS RETROGRADING TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BRING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE MS VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO TN TOWARD THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALSO TRYING TO FORM OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST AND PLATEAU WITH A FEW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY CENTRAL AND NE.
THE TAIL END OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA.
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EVEN IF WHATEVER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DOESN/T PUSH TOO FAR WESTWARD INTO THE REGION OWING TO INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH. LEAVING THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES TOMORROW RISE INTO THE LOW 100S.
650 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE ZONES ARE UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
The upper pattern will continue to feature NW flow on the eastern edge of a ridge centered over the southern Plains. Best chances for 1000-2000 J/KG of CAPE will lie along and west of I-65, however this area will also be under the influence of some mid level capping as it will be closer to the upper ridge center. Monday will bring another day of low confidence in convective evolution, however will continue to lean toward a drier forecast as upper ridge axis will be center just to our west and we will be more under influence of mid level subsidence. The drier forecast does have support from the higher res 26/00Z Nam and WRF NMM, along with most of the other 00z operational models. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH HAS PERSISTED ABOVE THE REGION FOR SOME TIME IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTN.
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING.
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO MOVE AND COMPRESS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE EAST THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THESE STORMS DISSIPATE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL PREVAIL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CANADA ACTING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST TOWARDS THE OZARKS.
THE CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER THE NWRN GOM. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH OVERHEAD TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. AFORMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESAY.
NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SLIES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE. SPC THINKING SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT PERIOD.
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW CU POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
1146 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE SHRA/TSRA ALREADY BREAKING OUT AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THRU 21Z. AN UNSEASONABLE DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY.
100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT. 50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
Low pressure moves in from the north today and exits late Monday.
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
234 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015 BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
NOW INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LEE TROUGH/THERMAL AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODERATE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER.
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES BY. ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
317 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND/OR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S OVR THE PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
342 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME OF THESE LINES AFFECTED THE LOWER KEYS. AFTER SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OF FLORIDA HOWEVER.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NUDGES EASTWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SMOKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA.
123 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL FLOW RETURNS. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION AND EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS OFFSHORE AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. BASICALLY IT IS THE HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AROUND 27/06Z THIS EVENING WITH BASES 900-1400 FT MSL AND SPREADING UP TO 30 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KSAN TAF IS LOW-MODERATE AS SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE. SO WILL GO WITH OVC IN THE LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AT KONT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TO SLIDE WEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AND 100-105 DEGREES OVER THE EAST HALF. A 594 DM UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AND BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
PER 12Z MET GUIDANCE, LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE THE METRO AREA. TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAINTAIN THEIR CONTROL OF LOWER MI WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES FOR A LONGER TIME ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIER DEW POINTS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MET/NAM GUIDANCE VALUES.
By mid evening, this low pressure system will exit the region and our chance for precipitation will come to an end for the week.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FROM GNV SOUTHWARD WHERE THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE U.
VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high remains in control of the region. Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma. 04 (Tuesday night through Monday) Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains entrenched over the southern plains.
A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER. COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS INDICATED ABOVE. STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW DAYS.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/ THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS ACROSS THE REGION HAS STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY EVEN AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FURTHER EAST.
A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER NRN ID WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE EJECTING NEWD THRU WY. LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN MT WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN WY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG SFC TROF AS IT ADVANCES FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK ACRS THE CWFA WITH STACKED UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CNDN/ND BORDER. WITH GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE WINDS AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE.
BOTTOM LINE FOR TUESDAY IS A MORNING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH WARM FRONTAL ADVECTION. AND THEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING NEAR I-35. AS THE LARGE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST HEIGHTS FALL IN THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW-LEVELS BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DATA SHOWS OVER AN 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG I-35 AT 00Z. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST RISK SOUTH OF I-90.
Although the ridge keeps building limiting storm strength and coverage, we are see an uptick in showery activity as of 1830Z. Low temperatures should range through the low to mid 70s. The ridge will be stronger over our area tomorrow limiting any convection to isld if it can even get going. Low temps should range through the low to mid 70s.
THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE EAST. SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
704 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER AS MONSOONAL FLOW RETURNS.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN.
WITH THE HIGH ALOFT BULGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
LATEST IR DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE. THERE IS AN ATTENDANT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 29 NORTH 70 WEST. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A WEAKENING SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BUT CONTINUES TO WHITHER GIVEN THE AFFECTS OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP AND WARM RIDGING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS NEAR OR TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE KEYS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PROVIDE CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS SHOULD BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 95 74 93 / 20 30 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 91 73 89 / 20 30 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 91 73 90 / 20 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 87 69 86 / 30 40 30 40.
941 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.