Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Seeing some radar returns this evening on radar as a weak upper level trough passes to the north across Kentucky. Moisture will slowly increase throughout the overnight hours as a warm front lifts northwards from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next approaching upper level trough. Storm total rainfall amounts will range from 1-4 inches with the highest amounts along the Cumberland Plateau into the southern Tennessee valley. The chances will depend on how far north the warm front will make it Sunday evening and how much instability the front will have to work with when it moves through overnight. VFR conditions with calm winds will continue overnight, but conditions will start to deteriorate tomorrow morning as a strong low pressure system approaches.
Today through Tonight Dominate large scale feature is mid level positive tilt trough extending from the upper Midwest to the southern Rockies. At the surface, leading edge of a stout cold front extended from about southwest MN to leeside low over western KS.
The area remains under north flow with a longwave upper level trough centered to the east and an upper ridge centered offshore.
In the wake of the second impulse, as the H500 trough begins to eject northeast toward the state, an area of discrete cells may develop across southeastern portions of the forecast area between 18-21z. As the H500 trough begins to move into western portions of the state from 21-00z, rapid development of severe thunderstorms is anticipated. As these features continue to work their way well east of the area, surface ridging will build in from the NW. By Monday morning, some locations across northern Arkansas could see temps at or near freezing.
Severe thunderstorms may develop along a sharp cold front as it sweeps west to east through the area from Monday morning through the mid afternoon. Strong gusty winds will also precede and occur in the wake of the cold front before subsiding Monday night.
And if we can get some convective component to evolve around or a little after 12z this morning the higher snowfall rates will still be seen in far southeast SD and northwest IA.
Overnight lows will remain chilly and below freezing for many areas.
Winds will weaken around sunset, but a swift moving cold front will shift winds out of a northerly component at all TAF locations with revamped gustiness at KHOB/KINK/KMAF post front. At around 06Z, a retreating dryline met up w/an incoming upper trough currently over nrn Chihuahua and New Mexico, and severe convection developed along the dryline from the Permian Basin to the lwr Trans Pecos. The fast moving trough is forecast to be over the NM/Texas border by 12Z, and central Texas by 18Z. A cold front is still on tap to invade the area behind the trough, w/the latest NAM12 bringing it into the NE zones by 21Z.
Low cloudiness should increase behind the passage of the cold front this morning but then decreasing during the afternoon. Schneider 1) Overview: A cold air mass will be in place to start the week, and we will likely have several cold mornings in a row as temperatures dip below freezing each morning through mid-week.
303 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2020 A cold front will push southward today as an upper level trough remains in proximity to the region.
Dry northerly flow through much of this week with an upper level ridge offshore.
Another several inches are expected in the mountains, but across the lower elevations, only another 1 to 3 inches are expected over the course of the day.
640 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Overall thinking remains similar to the previous TAF package with MVFR ceilings throughout the day and the potential for thunderstorms as an area of low pressure passes north of the area. These strong winds will continue into the early evening hours before diminishing as the area of low pressure exits the region. After thunderstorms finally move out of the area this afternoon and evening will be clearing and cooler across the region for the next couple of days.
1041 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Currently - A low to mid level ridge is moving northeast across the western North Atlantic and away from the Florida Keys. Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 80s across the island chain with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, making it feel quite muggy. As it does so, the gradient will tighten between this low and the high that sits over the Atlantic.
/issued 640 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ Overall thinking remains similar to the previous TAF package with MVFR ceilings throughout the day and the potential for thunderstorms as an area of low pressure passes north of the area. These strong winds will continue into the early evening hours before diminishing as the area of low pressure exits the region. After thunderstorms finally move out of the area this afternoon and evening will be clearing and cooler across the region for the next couple of days.
A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon into this evening, resulting in gusty north winds of 10 to 20 knots. /issued 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours, with most of the activity moving east of the area by daybreak as a Pacific cold front moves across the region. A strong cold front will move into the Big Country by mid to late afternoon, eventually making it to Interstate 10 by mid evening.
1037 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Breezy southeast winds today, as the Florida peninsula is wedged between high pressure pushing into the Atlantic off of the eastern seaboard and a strong disturbance moving through the Deep South. Then, increasing showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along a convergence boundary around peak heating this afternoon across the interior, as a warm front lifts through the area.
610 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Low pressure will rapidly develop later today track into the region tonight and Monday, bringing increasing chances for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Low pressure still forecast to rapidly deepen tonight into Monday morning as it races NE, likely passing over the forecast area between 6 and 12Z Mon. Challenges lie with thunder (isol stg-svr storm??) chances as well as timing of cold front and significant increase in wind speeds. VFR flight rule will persist until mid evening timed with arrival of better low level moisture ahead of rapidly deepening mid MS valley cyclone.
712 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Rain chances will increase today and into Monday with the approach and passage of very strong low pressure. Phasing low pressure is progged to eject from the Four Corners Region and move up the Ohio Valley tonight and Monday with eventual negative tilt and Midwest-to-Great Lakes sfc cyclogenesis projected. Confidence is also improving for a severe thunderstorm threat with the extremely high deep layer shear (primarily linear) on the flank of the low crossing Ohio.
257 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2020 A weak upper level trough from the north will lift the moist air in place along and west of our mountains, to generate some occasional light precipitation through Monday.
At around 06Z, a retreating dryline met up w/an incoming upper trough currently over nrn Chihuahua and New Mexico, and severe convection developed along the dryline from the Permian Basin to the lwr Trans Pecos. The fast moving trough is forecast to be over the NM/Texas border by 12Z, and central Texas by 18Z. A cold front is still on tap to invade the area behind the trough, w/the latest NAM12 bringing it into the NE zones by 21Z.
Otherwise, light snow will persist across the area today as the upper trough axis is still to our northwest and differential CVA persists. Otherwise, cold and unsettled flow will persist through the week, with warmer weather arriving this weekend as a western CONUS ridge shifts east.
A cold front pushing south into the region will bring widespread showers later today through Monday. Dry and warmer conditions return by mid week. A cold front dropping south into the state today will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
330 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 A strong cold front extends from the KC metro south to near Independence, KS and it will continue to shift east through our forecast area through the early evening hours. A strong cold front will move through the region toward 22z-24z shifting winds to the northwest with lowering ifr ceilings behind the front along with wind gusts of 30-40 kts possible.
Any accumulation thru Monday morning should be under one inch, w/ the highest amounts on or near the I-80 Summit. It is quite possible that later shifts may need to hoist a Winter Weather Adzy for the higher terrain between Laramie and Cheyenne, but given the presence of substantial model discrepancies with regard to QPF, we will hold off on any products for now.
The severe threat will continue into this evening mainly for the eastern portions of the area, until the cold front moves east later this evening. Strong high pressure ridging will build in overnight with lows ranging from the mid 40s in the north, to mid/upper 50s across the Pine Belt Region. /15/ Behind the influence of today's storm system, the region transitions to a relatively cooler and drier weather pattern. The CONUS becomes dominated by a broad trough, with weakly southwesterly flow in place over much of the south. Cooler temperatures moving in as north/northeasterly winds filter in on the east side of high pressure building in over the central US.
214 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Convection continues to expand this afternoon ahead of strong cold front which has pushed into NE OK early this afternoon. Conditions remain supportive of severe weather potential this afternoon through early evening ahead of the surging cold front. The highest conditional environment remains across SE OK and possibly into west central AR before the front passes.
The colder air mass, currently "hung up" on higher terrain along our northern borders, will start to filter its was south Monday afternoon and evening, so expect slightly cooler temps tomorrow.
121 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2020 A weak upper level trough will lift a deep moist layer in place along and west of our mountains, to generate some occasional light precipitation and gusty mountain and desert winds through Monday.
Previous discussion: A cold front will push southward today as an upper level trough remains in proximity to the region.
Expect a mainly sunny day, but cooler under north to northwest flow.
As the ridge noses towards the central Plains Monday morning, expecting any northerly flow remaining to shift to an easterly fetch. An inverted trough does develop in the southern Rockies during this time, and noses northward into Colorado.
254 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front, which will sweep across Illinois tonight. This will mark the start of much cooler conditions, which will persist most of the week, and resulting in below freezing temperatures each night beginning Monday night. Longer range focus will be on the much cooler conditions, with nightly temperatures at or below freezing.
Most of the stronger storms are developing along the cold front that is currently moving to the southeast through the OKC metro. With a northeastward storm motion perpendicular to the front movement, these strong storms that are developing along the cold front has their inflow cut off rather quick, and results in decay soon after their development. The main concern will be in southeastern Oklahoma where the environment is more favorable for storm development prior to the cold front arrival due to enhanced mid level moisture advection and increased instability (MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg). A freeze warning is in place overnight for central, western, and northern Oklahoma as well as Hardeman County in Texas due to the late season freezing temperatures.
Slightly warmer temperatures have been observed today from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, which will will result in a slightly slower transition from rain to snow this afternoon into early evening as the frontogenetic band pushes eastward. Some mix with sleet or freezing rain cannot be ruled out as warmer temperatures aloft slowly cool. This will lead areas of blowing/drifting snow, especially across open/unsheltered areas and ridgetops. As the upper trough swings through the area on Monday, cooling temperatures aloft will lead to steep mid-level lapse.
Have continued the High Wind Warning, but have taken a few counties out of the Winter Weather Advisory. Expect only a little bit of snow and maybe a little freezing rain for a short time.
Below normal temperatures will continue Monday, as the region stays under cyclonic northwest flow, due to the upper low over Manitoba.
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Today's strong cold front has cleared the forecast area. Exception may be the far southeast, the last part of the area likely to cloud over but also the last area to see a decrease in wind speeds and the part of the area likely to hang onto the highest dew points.
However, a cold front will be moving into the area from the north overnight in the 4-9z timeframe so look for speeds to increase once again post fropa.
The warm front remains to our South but should begin to surge North over the next few hours ushering in mid-60 degree dew points into portions of North Mississippi. The main limiting factor will be surface based instability, which will remain limited until the warm front surges North. The highest potential for a strong long tracked tornado will likely be right along or just North of the warm front before sunset. It is highly uncertain if additional storms will develop along the cold front but if they do, conditions will be favorable for fast moving short lived tornadoes as well as damaging wind. Cooler conditions will arrive tomorrow.
821 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2020 A weak upper level trough from the north will lift the moist air in place along and west of our mountains, to generate some occasional light precipitation and gusty mountain and desert winds through Monday.
Dry northerly flow through much of the week with upper level ridge influence offshore.
318 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The surface cold front continues to make steady progress through the forecast area, currently approaching a line from Clinton to Kirksville. Multiple nights ahead may once again see temperatures dipping to/below freezing, and additional freeze advisories may be needed.
High pressure at the surface builds into the region Monday night, likely setting the stage for the coldest night of the week, with lows presently forecast in the teens.
1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Very strong west wind blowing across the area in the wake of the upper trough with gusts up to 40kts. Also a strong cold front rushing down through the South Plains into the area will result in fropa much sooner than previous estimates. At around 06Z, a retreating dryline met up w/an incoming upper trough currently over nrn Chihuahua and New Mexico, and severe convection developed along the dryline from the Permian Basin to the lwr Trans Pecos. The fast moving trough is forecast to be over the NM/Texas border by 12Z, and central Texas by 18Z. A cold front is still on tap to invade the area behind the trough, w/the latest NAM12 bringing it into the NE zones by 21Z.
2 pm wind chill at Billings is only 12 degrees! Water vapor imagery shows cyclonic northwest flow over our region, associated with a very cold upper low over northern Manitoba.
Dry air is quickly moving into the lower levels, which should keep additional accumulation potential to a minimum. Used cooler guidance for min temps and took off an extra degree or so. Forecast ranges from single digits near Pine Ridge to mid teens far south and north central, which represents near record values. Mid-level fgen increases as a weak wave rounds the main trough, while soundings suggest a rather deep mixed layer and steep lapse rates. Temperature-wise, again sided with cooler end of guidance with highs generally in the 30s and lows in the teens.
253 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The upper trough will continue to dig in over the next 24 hours. This is still a good 20 degrees cooler than climo norms for mid April.
The easy part first: Dryline trough has surged in expected clear skies, and these will continue overnight and into Monday morning as the atmosphere from top to bottom has virtually no moisture in it (mean 1000-500 mb RH between 5 and 15 percent).
A disturbance and weak cold front will drop south out of Canada, bringing an increased chance of showers.
Meanwhile to our east a ridge remains over the western North Atlantic. In addition, the southeast wind regime is allowing for smoke to filter into the Keys, especially the Lower Keys today.
strong northwesterly winds move in behind the cold front with gusts reaching 45 to 50 mph. temperatures will plummet to sub-freezing by Monday morning. Then strong winds will move in behind the cold front with gusts reaching 45 to 50 mph during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. By midnight, the front will be well south of the area and near-freezing temperatures will have reached central Missouri. Given that the early spring season growth is well underway in most areas, sub- freezing temperatures will damage cold sensitive vegetation if protective actions aren't taken. A broad, longwave trough will keep us on the cool side for much of the upcoming workweek. Overnight temperatures could drop below freezing a few more times this week as several disturbances continue to bring cold air into the Plains.
Mostly clear and much cooler today, with breezy conditions this afternoon. Temps will be below freezing Monday morning.
Another Cold Front and Much Cooler. Another cold front is this afternoon just north of West Central Texas. For Monday, highs will be much cooler, or perhaps much colder would be a more meaningful way to characterize it, than usual mid April highs.
A cold front pushing south into the region will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms later today through Monday. Dry and warmer conditions return by mid week. West to northwest flow aloft of 25-35 mph continues to produce widespread upslope stratus clouds over the higher elevations. A cold front dropping south into the state today will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
Behind today's system, upper level troughing settles into the region and will keep below normal temperatures in place for the next few days. Not a whole lot of change expected thru the remainder of the work week with broad upper level troughing hanging in place.
358 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 A strong cold front quickly worked its way across northeastern Kansas today. Conditions this afternoon sharply contrast those of yesterday afternoon behind the front with much cooler and drier air advecting into the region. Northerly winds have gusted as high as 54 mph in north-central KS and gusts between 40 and 55 mph will remain likely area-wide with the higher gusts primarily across the western half of the CWA. In case you hadn't noticed already, temperatures are much cooler this afternoon than they were this morning, mainly in the 30's across the area.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Low and associated cold front are currently on the southeast edge of the forecast area early this afternoon. There also remains some concern with light freezing rain late this afternoon/early evening as the dry slot crosses the state.
119 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Low pressure will rapidly develop later today and track into the region tonight and Monday, bringing increasing chances for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Low pressure still forecast to rapidly deepen tonight into Monday morning as it races NE, likely passing over the forecast area between 6 and 12Z Mon. Challenges lie with thunder (isol stg-svr storm??) chances as well as timing of cold front and significant increase in wind speeds. Better low level moisture will arrive tonight ahead of rapidly deepening mid MS valley cyclone. A strong cold front will move through from west to east between 9Z and 12Z, and southerly winds will rapidly shift to the west and could gust to 45 kts.
Storm activity expected to end before midnight as a strong cold front moving through north Texas at this time will exit the south central Louisiana coast around midnight or a bit thereafter. Much cooler and drier air for the start of the week through mid-week.
/issued 249 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ Today's strong cold front has cleared the forecast area. Exception may be the far southeast, the last part of the area likely to cloud over but also the last area to see a decrease in wind speeds and the part of the area likely to hang onto the highest dew points.
A strong cold front extends from the KC metro south to near Independence, KS and it will continue to shift east through our forecast area through the early evening hours.
The upper trough will continue to dig in over the next 24 hours. This is still a good 20 degrees cooler than climo norms for mid April.
A cold front pushing south into the region will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday. Some light snowfall is also possible over the higher elevations Monday morning. Dry and warmer conditions return by mid week. Hi-res models continue to vary a bit on where exactly the higher amounts will be, but still favor that general area.
633 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 /00Z TAFS/ Wind shifts expected over the next few hours as a cold front pushes southward. Another Cold Front and Much Cooler. Another cold front is this afternoon just north of West Central Texas. For Monday, highs will be much cooler, or perhaps much colder would be a more meaningful way to characterize it, than usual mid April highs.
Dry northerly flow and offshore ridge influence will be the main drivers of this week's weather.
Warm and muggy as well with some record warmth as low temperatures only drop into the low to mid 70s across east central Florida (see climate section below). High pressure moves farther east into the Atlantic as a cold front makes its way into North Florida, causing local winds to veer southwest by early afternoon. Southwesterly flow regime will drive afternoon temperatures up into the low to mid 90s - near record to record heat expected. Hazardous boating conditions continue into the start of the weak as a cold front weakens on its approach to central FL.
High Winds remain possible across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, particularly the higher elevations, where a High Wind Warning remains in effect tonight. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track this evening, with the much advertised cold front nearing the Pecos River Valley, and continued slow southward and westward progression expected overnight. The cold front has moved s of INK and MAF and was near CNM.
Dryline/cold front still near a Natchez-Lake Charles line. Upper trough over southern Oklahoma, per water vapor loops.
757 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Compact short wave trough in eastern mt this evening will be making its way southeast and across northern sd later tonight through Monday morning. The upper trough will continue to dig in over the next 24 hours. This is still a good 20 degrees cooler than climo norms for mid April.
The system is supported by an anomalously strong upper trough which will cover the entire CONUS during the period. Outside of storms, there is still potential for strong environmental winds to mix down, mainly with passage of the cold front. High pressure will build in and bring fair weather from late Monday through Monday night.
Locally, high pressure centered north of Bermuda, in conjunction with a developing low pressure system near the Arklatex, has freshened southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys over the past several hours. Low pressure will deepen across the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight, before moving into the Great Lakes on Monday.