Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Once it does clear temepratures drop off into the lower 50s quickly with the threat of some fog. The clearing should continue slowly to the south and east this morning as the high pressure ridge moves east. Later tonight, some high clouds will move into the northwest cwa ahead of the incoming cold front.
KGUY stands the highest chance of being impacted, but not including mention in TAFs at this time due to limited coverage of storms. /Issued 430 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ A closed upper low will remain fairly stationary across the central Rockies and central Plains states through the weekend. This closed upper low will be poised between two areas of upper high pressure regions: one just to the east of the closed upper low and one just to the west of it.
321 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 An upper trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east tonight and move across northern New England Saturday while weak low pressure moves to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will be along and in advance of this trough tonight and Saturday.
At this point it appears that the heat indices will remain in the mid 90s, with wet-bulb globe temperatures reaching the lower 80s.
Height 850 warm prod does work into north central Wisconsin later Saturday morning but saturation may be an issue at the onset as well so will hold off pcpn mention until the cold front passage with the afternoon peak heating period. Cold front at this time is progged to reach far northwest Wisconsin starting around early Saturday afternoon.
/issued 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Fairly quiet forecast for the short term as drier air moves into the midlevels in the wake of an inverted trough.
As upper level ridging builds in behind the slowly southward moving frontal boundary, rain chances through Saturday will be shifted to the southern border counties of southeast Missouri and West Kentucky before ending completely late Saturday afternoon. A broad, flat ridge initially covering more than half of the southern states is forecast to expand eastward with time.
342 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 High pressure will move east of the region tonight.
145 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Surface analysis shows low over southeast MT with trof extending southward across eastern WY. Warm front is lifting through western SD and temps already near or at 100F across many plains locations. The beginning of TSRA already forming across northeast WY around the Gillette area along the surface trof. Temps will likely be a degree or two cooler.
339 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have managed to develop this afternoon as parcels of air have overcome the subsident air associated with the upper level high currently located across the Southern and Central Rockies. Due to the strong upper level ridge across the Intermountain West, North and Central Texas will experience northeasterly flow aloft through the weekend.
319 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A broad H300 trough was evident in the early afternoon water vapor imagery across the central Great Lakes region, dipping southwestward into Iowa and NE Kansas. Upper level ridging builds eastward tonight and tomorrow with high pressure over the Upper Mississippi River valley sliding southward and back building to the west. Upper ridge expands into northeast Kansas by Saturday evening with dry conditons returning to the area.
640 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level trough swinging through southern Ontario this afternoon will generally dissipate this evening with a mainly quiet night expected after sunset.
Some of the hi-res models also indicate the potential of some low clouds to develop as we work into the early morning hours tomorrow along and behind the equatorward progressing cold front.
Increasing clouds southwest toward morning and lows generally in the low to mid 60s.
256 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A broad upper level ridge is in place over much of Montana, with western and central North Dakota situated on the eastern periphery. Regarding thunderstorm chances, a cold front that is currently located over eastern Montana will push into western and central North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. While the strongest forcing will remain north of the international border, water vapor satellite imagery does show a weakness riding along the ridge that should provide enough lift for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the cold front as we erode afternoon capping. Saturday will be dry and slightly cooler after the passage of the cold front.
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front will move south through the region today, with rain chances coming to an end. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are expected for the weekend, as high pressure moves into the area. Surface analysis at 18Z suggests the presence of two different wind shifts associated with the incoming push of cooler and drier air. The drier and slightly cooler air mass advecting into the region will allow min temps tonight to fall into the 60s.
The drier conditions and warmer than normal temps from ridge aloft will lead to well below normal rain chances Saturday.
This should change during the next 12 hours, with dew points into the lower 30s by 12Z Sunday. Early night lows in the 30s may actually bump up a little by tmrw morning as the warm front lifts north, so we'll likely try to trend that non diurnal curve overnight if it doesn't look too bad collaboratively.
A cold front is expected to push into the Urban Corridor from the east/northeast in the 12-15z window Sunday morning. There will be a chance of light snow over the far northeast plains with the passage of the trough axis and cold front, with a slight chance of freezing drizzle primarily in the 12-16z period.
A backdoor cold front will then move through the region, initially affecting KCDS, then KPVW and KLBB. Light north winds this evening will trend variable by Sunday morning ahead of a cold front presently edging through the Platte River Valley of Nebraska. Upshot is that cooler northeasterlies should invade our SE Panhandle counties and result in a healthy contrast in highs from NE to SW, before the front backdoors over the remainder of the region.
Cloud cover has moved in ahead of the upper trough in the Plains/Lower Midwest. Should temperatures drop a bit further, chances for some snow and possibly some freezing rain/sleet may occur. Model trends are somewhat warmer, so did not put in mention of accumulation with the potential for mixed precip.
A strong cold front is poised to move through the area tonight, and is located near northwest Iowa as of early this afternoon. After midnight, the cold front will aggressively sweep through the entire area, with sharply colder temperatures in the lower teens arriving after 3 AM. I am counting on precipiation being light and intermittent enough to have pavement cool below freezing while not wet, since the forcing is main, out ahead of the cold front.
A 19Z surface analysis showed low pressure centered in northwest Iowa with a stationary front across northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. The low is forecast to reach Lower Michigan by 12Z Sunday but a mid level trough axis does not pass east of Wisconsin until late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday night. Expect snow to wind down across north central and parts of central Wisconsin this evening as the low moves away and the mid level trough enters that part of the state. Colder temperatures can be expected on Sunday behind the departing surface system and mid level trough.
403 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 A strong cold front is working it's way south through the Dakota's today with 3 pm temperatures only averaging around -5F across North Dakota while here in southern Nebraska we've been seeing afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. The cold air will continue to plunge south into Nebraska tonight behind a strong cold front, but the air will moderate some so we don't expect below zero temperatures across our area. The cold and the wind will not be the only slap in the face tomorrow morning after our nice weather today, we also expect at least some light snow in association with the cold front.
/issued 239 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/ (Tonight and Sunday) Short wave trough axis will swing through the area early this evening, with skies becoming clear for the overnight period. Another warm day is expected tomorrow ahead of a weak backdoor cold front approaching late in the day.
600 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 A strong cold front is working it's way south through the Dakota's today with 3 pm temperatures only averaging around -5F across North Dakota while here in southern Nebraska we've been seeing afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. The cold air will continue to plunge south into Nebraska tonight behind a strong cold front, but the air will moderate some so we don't expect below zero temperatures across our area. The cold and the wind will not be the only slap in the face tomorrow morning after our nice weather today, we also expect at least some light snow in association with the cold front.
We could see a few sprinkles into early this evening across southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri, however the low levels of the atmosphere will remain awfully dry. By later tonight, a cold front will begin plunging south across southeastern Kansas and central Missouri.
553 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 A storm system will move north of the region Sunday dragging a cold front through the area later in the day and overnight.
625 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Rain and snow should return to the area late tonight and Sunday with crossing low pressure. The trough should spread snow across the area late tonight, with accumulations less than an inch by early morning. Warm advection ahead of the low should result in a mix or change over to rain from PIT S. The exception should be the Laurel Highlands and Garrett county MD where the higher terrain should stay mainly snow. Areas N of I 80 and the higher elevations should see 2 to 4 inches of snow through Sunday evening. Precip should change to all snow Sunday evening as the low's associated cold front crosses. Scattered snow showers should continue after FROPA with upper troughing and cold NW flow.
A cold front will bring gusty north winds early Sunday which will last through the daytime.
817 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 A storm system will move north of the region Sunday dragging a cold front through the area later in the day and overnight.
Wind chill advisory with 25 to 40 below ranging across the area tonight into the morning sunday with the lowest values across the northwestern FA.
with these warmer temps prog to mix to the sfc. but ultimate warming will be dependent upon how soon a NNE flow develops in the afternoon as a weak prefrontal trough pushes southward.
601 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Breezy and dry conditions will give way to a period of snow later tonight into Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Lower Great Lakes.
Sunday's partial clearing up north will allow many communities to flirt with the lower 70s while.
Strong high pressure aloft near the West Coast will maintain dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures during the upcoming week. Strong high pressure aloft will remain anchored west of the central California coast, or essentially centered near 35N/130W.
However, latest CAMS continue to indicate that snow will end from north to south over the region as high pressure builds in. One wave has departed with a 1 to 2 inch snowfall and freezing drizzle for the Sisseton hills, however the stratus remains in place. High pressure moves overhead for Sunday with little mixing, add in fresh snow cover and it will be a struggle to warm during the day. The Hudsons Bay upper level low pressure area will dominate our weather bringing deep northwest flow over our cwa from Sunday night through Saturday.
748 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 High pressure is scooting east well to the north of the state tonight as a low pressure system approaches the region. Current forecast is on track with lows in the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south.
/issued 302 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/ Temperatures running about 10 ten degrees warmer then this time yesterday. Dry low level air over the region will likely delay the expected rain ahead of the trough until later in the evening. A cold front will pass through the area in the early to mid afternoon hours with the brunt of the cold air holding off until the overnight hours. Otherwise skies will be partly to mostly cloudy during the night with lows falling back to below freezing.
Freezing rain quickly turned to snow. Expect low difficult travel from the low visibilities from snow/blowing snow through Sunday morning.
636 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 One wave has departed with a 1 to 2 inch snowfall and freezing drizzle for the Sisseton hills, however the stratus remains in place. High pressure moves overhead for Sunday with little mixing, add in fresh snow cover and it will be a struggle to warm during the day. The Hudsons Bay upper level low pressure area will dominate our weather bringing deep northwest flow over our cwa from Sunday night through Saturday.
Small craft should continue to exercise caution for 15-20 kt winds expected over the next 24hrs ahead of cold front which will move across the waters Sunday night.
639 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 High pressure will be shifting farther off the East Coast tonight. A low pressure system and associated cold front will cross the region Sunday bringing widespread rain.
Warmer mid level air is possible. with a greater chance for sleet and freezing rain in areas south of I40. changing to sleet and freezing rain quickly in the early morning before changing to all rain. especially around bridges and overpasses. The higher elevations and foothills could see around 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 49 29 46 / 90 100 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 46 27 41 / 90 100 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 45 27 42 / 90 90 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 45 25 39 / 80 90 30 10 NC.
904 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Low-level high pressure just offshore of the Carolinas will be nudged further out to sea by a trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast. In response, the wind field in the lower levels will veer more southeasterly overnight tonight. Ceilings should eventually reach lower end VFR with shower chances increasing later in the afternoon west of line from ISM-DAB ahead of a cold front.
An upper level ridge will continue over the NE Pacific with northwest flow aloft across the Pacific Northwest.
538 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 Surface analysis has an area of low pressure over northwest IA with a warm front extending along the MN/IA border into southern WI. Had one weak mid-level trough pass through overnight through this morning that dropped a dusting to locally a couple inches of snow. Look for the low to continue moving east through eastern IA and along the IL/WI border this afternoon through tonight. As it does, look for snow to redevelop this afternoon, continuing through tonight with increasing mid-level frontogenesis north of the low. Some of this snow may mix with rain or temporarily chance to some light rain across the far south this afternoon as warmer air gets drawn north in the warm sector. Arctic high pressure builds into the area Sunday night for mostly clear and bitter cold conditions.
302 PM MST Sat Feb 3 2018 Upper trough crossing the state this afternoon, though impacts have been limited to just a few snow showers over the Central Mountains and gusty w-nw winds area-wide. After a lull in snowfall over the Central Mountains today, weak trailing upper energy should restart orographic snows for a brief period overnight, with perhaps a fresh inch or two over the highest west facing slopes of the Mosquito/Sawatch ranges by Sun morning.
Easterly winds near 10 knots become southerly 10 to 15 knots tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, with winds switching to the northwest as the front moves through on Sunday. A light southeasterly wind flow this evening will shift to the northwest in the wake of the cold front. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts between 35 to 45 mph are possible with the strongest storms just ahead of the cold front.
Surface wise, a large western Atlantic ridge extending across the Carolinas, the southeast United States, the Florida peninsula and well into the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, cooler waters will prompt 15 knots and retain a decreasing trend, to as low as 10 knots on Florida Bay.
Thereafter forecast sided toward the higher resolution guidance and will bring low MVFR to periodic IFR ceilings southeast of Interstate 44 later tonight. Cold front pushes quickly southward after sunrise bringing gusty winds with any ceilings likely raising into VFR levels. A strong cold front currently across the northern Plains will drop into northeast OK toward daybreak and exit the region during the afternoon.
930 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 High pressure will be shifting farther off the East Coast tonight. A low pressure system and associated cold front will cross the region Sunday bringing widespread rain.
528 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 Cold front had moved into northeast NE at 20z, and will quickly spread through the remainder of the forecast area this evening. The 1031 arctic high pressure quickly moves in Sunday afternoon, then moves east Sunday night.
Temperature profile will also support the potential of freezing rain for an hour or two at TRI between 11-14Z. Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 49 29 46 / 90 100 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 46 27 41 / 90 100 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 45 27 42 / 90 100 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 45 25 39 / 80 100 30 10 NC.
/issued 241 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018/ Scattered showers across the region will continue this afternoon as a cold front lingers and washes out.
An Arctic airmass will arrive tonight behind a surface cold front that's currently stretching across southern Minnesota, northern Nebraska, and northeastern Wyoming, making tomorrow's high temperatures roughly 30 degrees cooler than today. Soundings show the air in the low levels being rather dry, with increasing moisture in the morning. Soundings show the precipitation starting out as freezing drizzle, before quickly changing over to snow.
To the northwest of the low, light to occasionally moderate snow will continue across the U. Visibilities will gradually improve this evening through tonight from west to east with mainly MVFR conditions, but lake effect snow will pick up behind the exiting low pressure system.
Sometime around 03Z or later, the cigs and vsbys should lower into ifr; the lowering may be too conservative in the late evening as some lifr or lower conditions can't be ruled out before midnight, given a light SW sfc wind and and low chances for additional cigs above the boundary layer. Cold front is shown to ease in slowly which could prolong areas of fog toward midday along I-35 and possibly DRT as well. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s across the Hill Country to mid 50s along the coastal Plains.
514 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 For the 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KAMA and KDHT for the entire TAF period, buy KGUY may experience MVFR conditions to perhaps marginal IFR conditions tomorrow as a cold front passes through the Panhandles. The low ceilings are a little agressive at this point, and did not mention this in the current TAF, but will continue to monitor trends over the next 6 hours. /Issued 349 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/ A weak trough pushed across the region leaving a dry N to NW flow but rather warm temps. With low clouds trapped behind the front, highs in the NE will likely occur in the morning with temps holding steady or falling from the lower 30s.
Still looks like folks along the Highland Rim and over the northeast could see some snowflakes mix in with the rain as atmosphere saturates late tonight. Strong southerly flow has advected warmer air and mid and high clouds into Middle Tennessee this evening ahead of a cold front that is approaching from the northwest. Look for showers to begin spreading across the mid state from west to east by mid-evening, with ceilings deteriorating overnight as the low levels become saturated, then ending after 12Z Sunday.
/Issued 307 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018/ The main forecast issue this afternoon is potential for freezing rain and or sleet for portions of northeast GA overnight and into Sunday morning. including how fast the dew points rise above freezing and how long the wedge holds the cold air in the far northeast corner. For now the current advisory still looks okay but the freezing rain/sleet could reach parts of the surrounding counties but not enough for an advisory. Partial thickness values show mostly a freezing rain/sleet event with little snow. 20 with some higher amounts possible for the higher elevations. Some freezing precip may hang on until around noon in isolated areas in the higher elevations.
Rain is still expected to start to spread across the area from west to east with the highest chances during the second half of the night into Sunday morning across the northwest portions of the area.
Cold front should begin to move into northeast OK before 12z with a shift to north winds. Thereafter forecast sided toward the higher resolution guidance and will bring low MVFR to periodic IFR ceilings southeast of Interstate 44 later tonight. Cold front pushes quickly southward after sunrise bringing gusty winds with any ceilings likely raising into VFR levels. A strong cold front currently across the northern Plains will drop into northeast OK toward daybreak and exit the region during the afternoon.
928 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Rain and snow should return to the area late tonight and Sunday with crossing low pressure. The trough should spread snow across the area late tonight as the lower levels moisten, with accumulations less than an inch by early morning. Warm advection ahead of the low should result in a mix or change over to rain from PIT S. The exception should be the Laurel Highlands and Garrett county MD where the higher terrain should stay mainly snow. Areas N of I 80 and the higher elevations should see 2 to 4 inches of snow through Sunday evening. Precip should change to all snow Sunday evening as the low's associated cold front crosses. Scattered snow showers should continue after FROPA with upper troughing and cold NW flow.
Strong high pressure aloft near the West Coast will maintain dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures during the upcoming week. The upper pattern is currently defined by a large and strong ridge of high pressure off the West Coast and a weak baggy trough south of us in Sonora and Chihuahua Mexico extending into the mean trough over the north-central CONUS. Satellite imagery this evening shows a few thinning cirrus spilling over the eastern periphery of the upper ridge into Northern Arizona this evening, with generally clear skies across our forecast area.
Winds will remain elevated over the higher terrain and adjacent east slopes thru the night with swift northwest flow aloft.
/issued 231 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/ Upper pattern has a ridge centered along the CA coast with a weak trough over the center of the country. As this trough swings east zonal flow will set up behind it for the first of the week.
Quiet weather pattern continues with a strong upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific remaining in control.
133 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Cold front weakens as it enters southeast OH on Wednesday.
A gradual warming trend is expected during the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
647 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 High pressure off the Southeast Coast will circulate moisture into the forecast area through Wednesday.