Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The likelihood of any convection making it into our forecast area is looking increasingly low, though with the low level jet building in the next 3 to 6 hours, I'm hesitant to remove PoPs completely. There is still a very small risk of storms building westward along the front in Kansas and moving into northern Oklahoma or storms in the panhandle building northeastward along the axis of the low level jet into western Oklahoma.
303 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Temperatures today will top out in the 90s to around 100 in the lower valleys of northeast California and western Nevada, with 80s for Sierra valleys.
512 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening with crossing low pressure. Warmer weather with isolated afternoon thunderstorms can be expected for the weekend. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
Temperatures are on their way to the lower 100s again this afternoon in some of the S interior valleys. An upper trough will approach from the N and bring "cooler" temperatures this weekend (closer to normal). Gusty Northerly winds from the localized high pressure gradient set in around 17Z at KCEC.
917 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley region this evening, with high pressure at the surface helping to promote a clear sky and light winds. Current observations show that dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 60s -- and this "drier" air mass has actually helped to make things feel a bit more comfortable. MCS activity in the lower MO valley late tonight into early Friday may spill a few high clouds into the area on Friday afternoon. Highs may climb 2-3 degrees warmer into the l90s for most valley locations with u80s atop the higher elevations.
Expect dry weather overnight as surface ridging keeps dry air locked in over the region. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight & Friday: Mostly zonal synoptic flow & surface ridging will keep dry air locked over the region through Friday. Due to that, expect similar heat to today, but with low- level thermal profiles slightly warmer (i.
723 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening with crossing low pressure. Warmer weather with isolated afternoon thunderstorms can be expected for the weekend. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
/GG/ Tonight & Friday: Mostly zonal synoptic flow & surface ridging will keep dry air locked over the region through Friday. Due to that, expect similar heat to today, but with low- level thermal profiles slightly warmer (i.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019/ One last day of cooler temps are on tap this afternoon, before we climb pack into widespread triple digits. WV imagery shows an upper ridge extending from West Texas and Southeast New Mexico out into the Pacific. This feature is forecast to flatten and elongate east over the next few days, courtesy of a trough moving thru Canada and the upper CONUS.
1035 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Currently - The Keys are in a light southwesterly flow regime due to a narrow ridge extending across the Straits and a trough over the southeastern United States. Putting convective impacts aside, light southwesterly flow will gradually shift south to southeast overnight as ridge across the straits lifts northward into South Florida.
A dry cold front will move into northern Utah tonight. High pressure is expected to rebuild over the region by the latter half of the upcoming weekend.
Nocturnal convection dvlpg over the Big Bend/NE GOMex as of mid evening as as sharp H85-H30 trof is feeding of the sultry airmass currently overhead. Subtropical ridge axis over the FL Straits and the Nrn Bahamas will maintain gentle to moderate S/SWrly breeze over the lcl Atlc overnight.
Otherwise, surface ridging and dry air mass will produce VFR conditions and light northwest to north winds less than 10kts.
851 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Thunderstorm activity reached the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains around 5 pm MDT and are slowly coming off the foothills into the lower plains. Friday looks to generally be dry outside of the mountains, but by tomorrow night a cold front will drop into the area.
540 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A short wave trough over North Dakota will move across the Upper Midwest overnight into Friday morning. The forcing in the low levels does not look all the great with this system with just some very weak frontogenesis in the 850- 700 mb layer. The low level moisture transport axis should stay well to the south of the area as it is tied to another short wave trough that will pass south of the area through the overnight hours. The best chances for rain should mainly be along and north of Interstate 90, closest to the passage of the short wave trough.
A mostly sunny day is expected for Friday with slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures.
The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower Mojave Deserts and the Heat Advisory for Lincoln County will continue through Friday.
Convection currently across MO is heading southeast but ML/UL flow such that if it holds together it will likely pass north as weak upper trough continues to flatten.
1157 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight, and for most of the region Friday under weak high pressure. Warmer weather with isolated afternoon thunderstorms can be expected for the weekend. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
skies mainly sunny except for NE portions of the region that are stuck some weak ridging/subsidence. Temps are currently a wide mix depending on where the front lies with 70s to the low 90s the going range. Zonal flow aloft transports a weak progressive short wave trough embedded in the westerly flow across the central High Plains region on Saturday evening. This trough aloft in combination with a convergent area near a weak stationary surface boundary, widespread near surface moisture and weak instability should be enough to produce isolated non-severe storms across the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and evening.
The return of heat/humidity kicks into higher gear Saturday, with low-mid 90s highs and dew points around 70/in the lower 70s translating to triple digit heat indices. Mean ridging/height rises in the country's mid section will influence and serve to maintain our return to summer like heat/humidity over the PAH FA.
Otherwise a pretty nice day Friday with highs in the lower 80s. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.
We will have one more chance for thunderstorms Saturday night as the base of the main upper trough centered over central Canada moves through the Great Plains.
Flight weather should be quite good through most of the forecast period due to a drier and more stable west component to the low to mid level flow.
Otherwise, the flow aloft will flatten somewhat through Saturday as the upper ridge is compressed and elongated to the south and west of the area. H500 low pressure will persist across Canada leading to a fairly active pattern for areas across the northern half of the country. Again, we find ourselves on the border of active weather as surface and high pressure aloft continue to greatly influence our weather locally.
As dewpoints edge up into the low to mid 70s again, and temps shoot up into the mid/upper 90s today, heat will once again become a concern.
Valley fog has been a bit more limited this morning due to the lower than expected cross over temperatures from yesterday afternoon.
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Under mostly cloudy skies and light south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s along the island chain. On our marine district, with a western Atlantic ridge axis lying across the Straits of Florida, winds are mainly south varying from 6 knots at Carysfort Reef Light to 10 knots at Pulaski Shoal Light. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will linger over the Bahamas, as a western Atlantic ridge axis below 700 mb builds westward and across our region over the next several days. An elongated, east-west oriented high pressure cell lying over the Sunshine State and the Atlantic and Gulf waters will meander and weaken somewhat.
/22/ Expect dry weather overnight as surface ridging keeps dry air locked in over the region. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight & Friday: Mostly zonal synoptic flow & surface ridging will keep dry air locked over the region through Friday. Due to that, expect similar heat to today, but with low- level thermal profiles slightly warmer (i.
Upper level high pressure over the southwestern United States is expected to build northward into the central plains by this weekend. There is a small chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening before upper level ridging sets in. Hot weather will persist into late August as upper level ridging is progged to remain across the southern plains.
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Mainly dry weather is expected today as weak high pressure builds in. Mainly dry weather is expected today as weak high pressure builds in.
As a result the highs today will be very similar to those yesterday south of this surface boundary that will extend from near Great Bend to Elkhart. North of this boundary temperatures will be a little cooler with highs expected to range from the upper 80s along I-70 to the mid 90s in the Dodge City and Garden City areas. Over the weekend an upper level ridge will build across the Rockies. Some relief to the heat will occur mid week when a weak surface cold front moves into the Central Plains. The cold front mid week will not only bring some cooler air to western Kansas but it will also bring the next decent chance for thunderstorms to the area. A weak cold front will settle across western Kansas this evening.
Highs today will range from the 70s in the Black Hills to the lower 80s on the plains. On Saturday, a Canadian low pressure system will swing a cold front into the Dakotas. Highs will depend on timing of the front, but latest guidance suggests lower temps: current forecast shows highs ranging from the upper 60s across northwestern SD to the lower 80s across south central SD.
added VCTS for the afternoon hours based on the high resolution models being more aggressive with convective coverage for SE TAF sites.
Upper level ridging will lead to subsident air and keep North and Central Texas skies clear overnight.
A dry cold front will move into northern Utah tonight. High pressure is expected to rebuild over the region by the latter half of the upcoming weekend. A weak cool front at the lower levels is pushing into northwest Utah this evening.
Moist, unstable upslope flow across the high Plains should foster another complex of storms Friday night, which could ride east- southeastward into portions of central/eastern Kansas before exiting Saturday morning.
The sub tropical ridge today will extend from the Atlantic to the Pacific and across the southern tier of states.
High pressure aloft will bring another day of excessive heat across western Arizona today. Latest models shift the area of high pressure aloft southward as the westerly storm track starts to sag this weekend.
In western Canada a trough of cold air is dropping down the front range the its front rapidly moving into central Alberta this morning. Meanwhile, hot high pressure lies bottled up over the Desert Southwest and Four Corners. Today through Saturday: Cold front will slide into southern Alberta by noon and cross the International Border in the afternoon hours.
Confidence is pretty high in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night as a cold front moves across the region.
On Saturday, an upper trough and sfc front will swing through bringing showers and thunderstorms. There are still some questions as to the evolution of the latter day storms because of some warm front induced activity that could occur in the morning. The warm front could stretch into the area from the Black Hills to northeast SD. Temps will be warmer today in the 80s before dipping again on Saturday with the precip. Will likely still be dealing with showers and thunderstorms across the eastern CWA Saturday evening as a cold front continues to track across the area.
As a result the highs today will be very similar to those yesterday south of this surface boundary that will extend from near Great Bend to Elkhart. North of this boundary temperatures will be a little cooler with highs expected to range from the upper 80s along I-70 to the mid 90s in the Dodge City and Garden City areas. Over the weekend an upper level ridge will build across the Rockies. Some relief to the heat will occur mid week when a weak surface cold front moves into the Central Plains. The cold front mid week will not only bring some cooler air to western Kansas but it will also bring the next decent chance for thunderstorms to the area.
This leads to slightly cooler conditions by a few degrees across the northern valleys, but no appreciable changes in Nye County.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 70 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0.
953 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected today under weak high pressure.
Mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight will allow for slightly cooler than normal morning lows Saturday in the northeast with near normal temperatures expected elsewhere.
A dry cold front will settle south into central Utah today, then weaken as it stalls over that area tonight through Saturday.
922 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 High pressure will settle into the region today, with mostly clear skies persisting across the TN Valley. Given higher heights, clear skies and lighter winds, temps are expected to rise a degree or two higher day, with with highs expected in the lower to mid 90s. After another clear and calm night, an even warmer day is possible on Saturday as the upper ridge continues to build northeast into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley region this weekend. Expect another dry day, thanks to strong subsidence from the ridge and the lack of any lifting mechanism.
545 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Mainly dry weather is expected today as weak high pressure builds in. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected today as weak high pressure builds in.
Upper level ridging will remain in place across Texas and the rest of the southwestern U. This ridging will cause temperatures to warm into the upper 90s to around 104 degrees again, with some of the warmest temperatures in the Concho Valley and Big Country areas. Additionally, downward motion due to the ridge will work to suppress meaningful convection in our area today. A couple of the high resolution models are showing isolated showers and thunderstorms for southern areas.
The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower Mojave Deserts and the Heat Advisory for Lincoln County will continue through 8 PM tonight.
By late in the day a cold front begins to approach from the north.
The forecast winds were leaned closer to the higher end of the guidance envelope given expected post-frontal environment and resulting cold air advection. In western Canada a trough of cold air is dropping down the front range the its front rapidly moving into central Alberta this morning. Meanwhile, hot high pressure lies bottled up over the Desert Southwest and Four Corners. Today through Saturday: Cold front will slide into southern Alberta by noon and cross the International Border in the afternoon hours.
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place this afternoon along with dew points in the lower 70s and ML CAPE of 2500 to 3500 J/kg by late afternoon. By early this evening isentropic ascent will increase over a warm frontal boundary near the I-70 corridor as the low level jet increases.
The Canadian cold front we have been watching for several days has made it to the Canadian/Montana border this afternoon. The Canadian cold front will leave a much cooler and drier air mass across the region resulting in temperatures running some 10 degrees below normal on Saturday.
309 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. This lines up nicely in an area of weak low level convergence under a thermal trough in the mid levels. The location of the enhanced forcing and ill- defined warm front will favor the potential for scattered strong to severe storms over the Northern Mountains. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 There is still an upper level low pressure system on the edge of our area in the Gulf of Mexico.
446 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday. This lines up nicely in an area of weak low level convergence under a thermal trough in the mid levels. The location of the enhanced forcing and ill- defined warm front will favor the potential for scattered strong to severe storms over the Northern Mountains. The combination of heat and humidity will drive Heat Indices into the mid 90s over the Lower Susq Valley for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
A mostly dry cold front stalled over central Utah will dissipate this evening.
Despite the hot afternoon Saturday, afternoon dew points will generally dip into the lower to mid 60s in the valley keeping heat index values from straying much from the actual temperature.
257 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Slightly more convection than yesterday developing over the higher terrain this afternoon as upper forcing is stronger with wave moving by to the north. Deep instability lies along and east of a line from just east of Colorado Springs to east of Pueblo to near Clayton NM as of 21z, with CAPE in the 1000-3000 J/KG range as dewpoints have held in the lower 60s near the KS border.
354 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 The mid level ridge will build in over South Texas through Saturday with subsidence keep us mostly dry. With mid level ridging in place, temperatures will be a degree or two higher on Saturday, with heat indices 105-114.
A few cirrus clouds may make it into the area this afternoon, along with the development of cumulus over the higher terrain.
20 inches with the higher values near the coast. Fcst soundings show weak capping trying to develop in the 700-500 layer and convective temperatures will be warmer, generally between 91-94 degrees.
As a result the highs today will be very similar to those yesterday south of this surface boundary that will extend from near Great Bend to Elkhart. North of this boundary temperatures will be a little cooler with highs expected to range from the upper 80s along I-70 to the mid 90s in the Dodge City and Garden City areas. Over the weekend an upper level ridge will build across the Rockies. Some relief to the heat will occur mid week when a weak surface cold front moves into the Central Plains. The cold front mid week will not only bring some cooler air to western Kansas but it will also bring the next decent chance for thunderstorms to the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail after the low stratus at KHYS burns off by 19z.
243 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Tonight, a cold front will swing through western and central North Dakota. The main area of forcing for widespread precipitation will follow behind the cold front and arrive early Saturday morning west and mid morning central.
Moist, unstable upslope flow across the high Plains is expected to foster a complex of storms which should roll eastward across portions of central and eastern Kansas overnight.
High pressure will settle into the region today, with mostly clear skies persisting across the TN Valley. Given higher heights, clear skies and lighter winds, temps are expected to rise a degree or two higher day, with with highs expected in the lower to mid 90s. After another clear and calm night, an even warmer day is possible on Saturday as the upper ridge continues to build northeast into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley region this weekend. Expect another dry day, thanks to strong subsidence from the ridge and the lack of any lifting mechanism.
247 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019 West northwest flow is continuing across the region today, becoming more zonal as an upper low slides through Alberta. A strong upper wave will cross Montana late tonight into Saturday morning, with a cold front pushing through the northern High Plains.
1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected today under weak high pressure.
The next chance for storms comes tomorrow afternoon as a cold front associated with the upper-level trough in CA reaches the forecast area. Isolated showers may pop up across the Highway 2 corridor earlier in the day due to modest instability, but the heavier storms will be right along the frontal passage. Decreasing cloud cover combined with he cold-frontal passage will allow low temperatures to drop into the low 50s.
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 High pressure at the surface remains in control of the weather across the Southeastern U.
Return flow will continue until late morning Fri, after which it will veer to W as leeside troughing kicks in on the Front Range. The sub tropical ridge today will extend from the Atlantic to the Pacific and across the southern tier of states.
Low pressure trof currently moving across western CWA as surface winds veering to the west. Weak high pressure settles over southern WI overnight. A warmer day is expected on Saturday with more sunshine and light south winds.
Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
The fact that the convection has held on this long will limit the lower atmosphere from recovering sufficiently to set up the possibility for severe weather later tonight. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the High Plains later tonight as well as along and near the surface frontal boundary but severe potential.
Temperatures tonight will again be on the comfortable side, especially with the light winds in the ridge axis across the east, where readings in the mid to upper 50s are expected around daybreak. Slightly warmer in the west with the return flow and increased clouds/moisture, but still in the lower 60s. This will draw higher dew points into the area, ahead of an approaching cool front associated with the broad upper trough moving across the northern Plains. Broad mid-upper trough and associated cool front will be sweeping east across the region, moving into unstable air mass with afternoon CAPE values around 2000 J/kg or higher. Shear ahead of the boundary is on the weak side, but becomes enhanced along and behind the boundary as mid level winds increase with the approaching trough.
where the low level jet should help flare up the convection further as it exits the local area during the very early morning hours Saturday. There then should be a notable break in thunderstorm chances during the daytime hours Saturday with partly sunny skies and warmer temperatures there will be some adiabatic compression ahead of the next front which will bring another chance for severe weather to the local area Saturday night. Expect a cold front to cross northern Nebraska Saturday night.
This front will then remain hold up from southwest to northeast across the western cwa until a short wave trough drops out of southern Canada and moves across North Dakota through Saturday night. This will then push the front across the cwa through the afternoon and evening with high pressure settling in Saturday night. Everything will move to the east Saturday night as cooler and drier high pressure builds in.
and also low pops for the afternoon across the higher elevations.
The associated cold front is expected to come in from the N/NW late this evening (frontal passage at Billings around Midnight). So the highest PoP's are from the Treasure County eastward, with PoP's trending lower to the south and west. Much of this exits to the E/SE by afternoon, but some isolated to scattered instability showers remain a possibility in the afternoon, especially over the high country in the west. Look for much cooler highs on Saturday.
Will likely see additional convection develop again tonight along the synoptic frontal boundary across KS/MO as the low-level jet strengthens.