Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
652 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021 KUDX radar shows main line of strong to severe storms along eastward moving cold front is now well east of the Black Hills, heading toward central SD. Temperatures vary widely across the area at this time, 40s over the Black Hills area to the lower 80s over south central SD. Extensive low stratus and cooler temperatures remain in place to the northwest of the front in South Dakota, with much warmer temperatures and greater surface based instability to the southeast of the front.
There is still a line of thunderstorms extending from just east of Chadron southward to Bridgeport, so will keep the Tornado Watch going for western Nebraska until 6 or 7 PM this evening. Skies clear behind the system, but the low-level moisture sticks around in the Nebraska panhandle, so there's a good chance patchy dense fog will form after midnight tonight. Southeast Wyoming dries out in the low-levels, so fog is less likely, but still possible. Looking westward, the winds are not nearly as high as was originally forecasted across Carbon County and Interstate 80 between Rawlins and Arlington with gusts 35 to 40 MPH, but the High Wind Warning will remain in place until there is no possibility of high winds.
Depending on the track of the low pressure system as it ejects off the Rockies, the region could either see a resurgence in precipitation later tonight through Monday, or the region could get not much but a glancing blow of the majority of the precipitation continues to shift to the north. Cliff FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR to LIFR overnight, MVFR to VFR Monday LLWS: Possible in the Yellowstone River Valley between 09Z and 16Z WINDS: E-SE 10-15kts overnight, becoming SW-W 10-15 gusts 20-25kt Monday morning, increase to SW-W 15-25 gusts 30-40kts Monday afternoon SYNOPSIS: An upper level Low over western Montana will eject to the NE tonight and into Monday.
The highest severe threat however should be during the late afternoon and evening across western KS.
If large hail occurs it will be on the lower end of the spectrum. On Monday, cold front will stall across southeastern forecast area and then begin to retreat as a warm front Monday afternoon.
/Tonight/ Stream of deep-layer moisture continues across our region on the wrn periphery of the upper ridge. Weaknesses rounding the ridge overnight will continue to allow for some low-chance PoPs across our wrn areas. /Tonight through Monday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the southeastern CONUS to maintain mainly dry conditions across the region through the short-term period. However, a persistent plume of moisture across the the Gulf of Mexico streaming north along the western periphery of the ridge to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of east Texas early this evening and again on Monday. With upper-level ridge firmly established across the eastern half of the ArkLaTex, which includes Louisiana and Arkansas, temperatures could approach 90 degrees on Monday. Otherwise, temperatures in the low to mid 80s can be expected elsewhere.
726 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Anomalously warm high pressure continues to dominate the pattern as temperatures will reach the mid-90s this week.
616 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 (This evening through Monday) Water vapor loop this afternoon shows an upper low along the Lower Texas Coast with a large surge of tropical moisture moving into Texas.
1037 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021 The trough continues to lift through the area. These are thanks to the low over the NV/UT/ID state line. The low clouds and scattered showers will continue through the day tomorrow, but will decrease into tomorrow afternoon.
High temperatures will be similar today as they were on Sunday warming into the upper 80s with a few locations (especially urban locations) reaching the low 90s. With record values for Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort all around the low 90s, it is possible that we could see some of our highs reach or set new records. It will be another mild and mainly clear overnight with light winds and MinT dropping into the low/mid 60s with mid/upper 60s for urban locations thanks to urban heat island. Should be mostly clear but given the trend the last few nights, high clouds along the edge of the ridge could work across the CWA overnight.
224 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021 A stacked surface and upper low over Montana early this morning will lift north into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today. The low will drift east towards Manitoba tonight. The forecast area will see gusty west to SW today being in a tight surface gradient on the south side of this low. Also, areas north of the Missouri River will be close enough to the low to see rain from wrap around moisture at times today and tonight.
Low pressure system that brought hail and thunderstorms yesterday digging into the Canadian Plains this morning as our pressure begins to rise with ridging to our south as our upper level trough slowly begins to move eastward as blocking high pressure sits over the southeast USA. With pressure rises, no precipitation expected today and temperatures slated to be a few degrees warmer today with highs from the upper 50s to middle 60s west of the Laramie Range and from the middle 60s to low 70s east of the Laramie Range into the Panhandle.
A strong area of high pressure is promoting mostly clear and tranquil conditions once again across the Tennessee Valley region this evening. After temperatures peaked in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, they have dropped off quickly this evening and into the lower to mid 70s in most locations as of 02z. Dewpoints are running a little bit higher (compared to last night) and for this reason, expect lows to run a few degrees warmer tonight -- bottoming out in the lower 60s by early Monday morning. The weak trough to our east will shift into AL on Monday afternoon, and may yield a bit more cumulus coverage.
The ridge axis overhead has resulted in calm to light and variable winds. Temps in the NE a few degrees higher and into the lower 90s/near 90 away from the bulk of the cu in the central and west.
353 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 An upper low continues to move out of northeastern Montana and into southern Manitoba this morning.
After a brief break tonight, another disturbance will round the ridge Monday allowing scattered rain showers to develop mainly along and east of I-35 through most of the day.
Building high pressure will result in warming on Monday.
920 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021 Updated the forecast to adjust hourly temperatures toward latest observations and to raise PoPs for this evening through midnight MDT as we still have a few scattered showers occurring over the region and a few isolated thunderstorms occurring over southeast MT ahead of a mid-level trough axis. These storms will be weak as they exist in an area of weak instability and will weaken once they move into more stable air and the trough axis moves northeastward out of the area. As the upper low begins to moves east across northern Montana Monday morning, strong, uniform west winds throughout the atmosphere look to mix down to the surface, with gusts up to 55 mph possible along the foothills west of Billings, an up to 40 mph areas at and east of Billings.
1244 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 (This evening through Monday) Water vapor loop this afternoon shows an upper low along the Lower Texas Coast with a large surge of tropical moisture moving into Texas.
At that time, some development ahead of an approaching cold front may bleed into the NW third of the CWA where slight POPs are forecast.
1132 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021 Updated forecast for tonight to cancel the High Wind Warning for north-central Carbon and Albany counties and also to let the remaining Tornado Watch for western Nebraska expire. The only other minor concern is near freezing temperatures west of the Laramie Range. Skies clear behind the system, but the low-level moisture sticks around in the Nebraska panhandle, so there's a good chance patchy dense fog will form after midnight tonight. Southeast Wyoming dries out in the low-levels, so fog is less likely, but still possible. Looking westward, the winds are not nearly as high as was originally forecasted across Carbon County and Interstate 80 between Rawlins and Arlington with gusts 35 to 40 MPH, but the High Wind Warning will remain in place until there is no possibility of high winds.
245 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 A mostly dry day is expected across the region with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. By tonight, a shift in the upper level pattern will begin to take place as a ridge across the southeast US will begin to weaken and shift further east.
338 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 An omega blocking pattern continues over the southeastern United States, with South Florida located downstream of the associated upper level ridge. Meanwhile a western Atlantic low-level ridge will nudge southward, allowing dry air to continue advecting into the region.
The strong upper ridge over the region will continue to drift slowly east during the period. A weak backdoor cold front to our northeast will edge slowly southwest today. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures for Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 05-24 94(1953) 92(1904) 88(2019) 93(2019) LW.
1130 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Nearby high pressure ridge will continue fair and warm weather across central and southeast Illinois through Monday night.
Current temps are mostly in the lower 60s with a few pockets of 50s across the east half. Upper ridge axis this afternoon will again be in close proximity.
305 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Monday morning water vapor imagery looks awfully similar to how it looked Sunday morning, with patchy cirrus drifting across the area around a mid-level ridge. Expect another warm and dry day today as the ridge slowly advances eastward. Low-level temperatures will warm slightly compared to yesterday, when many locations hit 90 for the first time in 2021, so blended guidance highs in the lower 90s appear reasonable for now.
The Evening Update: Warmer day on Mon over Norcal as short wave ridging slides over the forecast area ahead of the upper trof over the NErn Pac near 140W. This trof will bring some cooling to the forecast area Mon nite and Tue as it slides over the area. Chance of seeing some stratus possibly intruding into the Srn Sac Vly Tue morning as the trof axis moves inland. Onshore winds have been generally light today as the upper low continues to move east and away from the area. The lingering mountain clouds are expected to dissipate this evening as ridging builds back into the area. This will act to warm up temperatures tomorrow roughly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
Upper level high pressure remains over the area with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temps have fallen into the lower to mid 60s most places with some patchy fog across parts of west TN and NE MS again this AM.
331 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern US will slowly shift east across Florida through the first half of the week. At the surface, broad ridging north of Florida will slip south into northern Florida through the week and into the Florida Peninsula by the weekend. With ridging both aloft and at the surface, broad subsidence will keep warm and stable conditions in place, with limited rain chances and temperatures running a few degrees above normal.
305 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 The upper low that has been sitting over the western U. However weak troughing associated with the low will remain over West Texas today allowing a disturbance to transit the CWA. The presence of clouds and storms will keep temps below normal for one more day before warmer air arrives tomorrow. A series of lows will move across the northern tier of states this week and while they won't directly affect our weather, they will prevent high pressure over Mexico from building north leaving us under a weak west to southwesterly upper level flow. At the surface this means high pressure east of the Rockies and lower pressure to the west creating southeasterly surface winds throughout the week advecting warmer temperatures, though not unreasonably so for this time of year.
102 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 A cooler air mass settles into the region for tonight into Monday.
236 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northwest ND with trough into central WY. Water vapour depicted upper low over southern AB with 110kt jet streak across the western Dakotas.
343 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over western Montana with a trough of low pressure extending south into northeastern Nevada and northern Utah. Downstream of this feature, high pressure was located over northwestern Alabama with a ridge extending north northwest into southern Manitoba. West of the trough of low pressure, a low amplitude ridge extended up the northwestern coast of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was located over eastern Montana and North Dakota. A cold front extended south through the middle of Nebraska into far northwestern Kansas.
This cloud cover could have an impact on our northwest Colorado valleys falling below the freezing mark, so that draws some concern for the Freeze Warning in COZ002. This should allow for good radiational cooling across the southwest Colorado valleys, where Freeze Warnings appear on track as temperatures are already dropping into the low 30s. Expect mostly sunny skies across the entirety of the western slope this afternoon with cooler temperatures, about 5 degrees or so below normal.
/issued 917 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021/ A trof continues to extend from the Texas gulf coast inland this evening streaming very high atmospheric moisture west of the Sabine River.
449 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Upper level high pressure was over the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with ridging extending northward. Meanwhile, troughing was offshore of New England and over the western CONUS. Despite the upper high and ridging over the area, there is still a small potential for some precip today. The eastern trough has allowed a cold front to sag southwestward into OH and WV. After today, the western trough will play a larger role for our weather. An upper low embedded in the trough (currently along the MT/Canada border) will drift eastward and get picked up by another trough further north. It will suppress our upper level ridging further southeast.
1034 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 An upper level ridge extended from the Gulf Coast region north into southeastern MO and southern portions of IL and IN with surface ridging also extending north-northwestward into southeastern MO and southern IL.
Cyclonic flow aloft persists overnight as the upper low moves into Canada. As the upper low moves east, we'll enter a period of zonal flow through the atmosphere, with strong winds 40-50 kts at 700mb that will be able to mix down as low dewpoints move into the area. Gusts 45 to 55 mph is expected at and west of Billings, with the higher amounts expected along the foothills, and gusts 35-45 mph expected across southeast Montana.
426 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 A cold front drops into the area from the north today with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
300 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure will build across the region today into tonight with pleasantly fair and dry weather.
A very subtle short wave at 500mb was rotating around the larger upper level low centered in the Intermountain West.
High Pressure ridge at the surface sets up south and east of the region, while high pressure ridge aloft sets up over the SE U. Under Sunny skies expect highs to reach the lower/middle 90s inland, while an East Coast sea breeze this afternoon keeps the beaches/I-95 corridor in the middle/upper 80s. Mostly clear skies tonight along with light winds and dry airmass will allow for lows to fall into the lower to middle 60s with limited chances for fog due to the dry airmass.
203 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure will linger across the region through the middle of the week. Aloft, a large mid-upper lvl ridge will slowly become centered across the Southeast United States around daybreak. Although conditions will remain fairly warm with a light west-southwest in place, some radiational cooling component under clear skies should allow overnight temps to dip into the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast. Mid-level ridging will prevail across the region. At the surface, high pressure will persist with plentiful dry air and subsidence.
257 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Wvapor imagery shows a s/wv over southeast TX early this morning with prominent ridging from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.
Dirty ridge continues across the Midwest and Ohio valley region as IR satellite was showing quite a bit of mid and high level cloudiness. Ridge axis expected to build back northeast slightly and be centered across Indiana today. This cloud cover poses issues with respect to temperature forecast today as 850mb temps look to warm to between 15 and 16C which under full sun and ridge axis should yield highs pushing 90 and warmer than Sunday max temps. Thinking similar trends today and will keep highs a few degrees warmer and in upper 80s with 90 in typically warm KLAF area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 67 93 69 93 / 10 0 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 91 67 90 / 10 0 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 91 66 90 / 10 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 61 88 62 88 / 10 0 20 10 20.
Another dry, hot day on tap for Monday as the CWA remains beneath the upper-level ridge and associated high pressure. /Issued 803 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021/ With the upper ridge firmly entrenched across the region, Monday will bring another day of dry and warm weather.
(Today and tonight) The surface and upper level pattern will be in transition today, with southeasterly low level flow gradually becoming more southerly and weak upper ridging becoming southwesterly.
642 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Quiet conditions across most of the area greet us this morning as we remain between the influence of a well upstream midlevel trough and a mid level ridge to the southeast. With the best flow aloft remaining well west of the area, closer to the midlevel trough there isn't much in the way of mid level support for ascent. By mid day the low level flow should weaken a bit, which will bring down the chance of rain.
An upper low continues to move out of northeastern Montana and into southern Manitoba this morning. Another warm day is in store for Tuesday ahead of a cold front that is expected to push through the area later in the afternoon and evening.
No precipitation is expected for the next few days as temperatures will get warmer with each day. High pressure ridge will remain across central Florida most of this week, before shifting into SOFL late Thu-Fri.
The combination of an upper level trough, above normal PWAT values, moderate CAPE/limited CIN, will result in scattered/numerous convection over the CWA today, with the greatest POP values over the Victoria Crossroads. The upper trough is predicted to lift north of the CWA/dissipate by this evening.
Showers associated with a passing front are currently diminishing across the east, while showers associated with the upper level low remain across the north this morning. Look for this low to pull into Canada today, perhaps bringing chances for showers across northern portions throughout the day. As this low pulls north a strong gradient will bring increased southwest winds this afternoon through the evening. A closer look at NAEFS climatological percentiles show the winds in the northwest are forecasted to be some of the highest on record for this time of year. Shower activity also looks to be limited tonight, and mainly confined to the northwest as the upper level low continues to slowly progress across Canada. Tuesday the mentioned upper low slides across far southern Canada and pushes a cold front across the state.
438 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Upper low over Montana will continue to shift off into Canada today, and then track more east across southern Canada on Tuesday. On Tuesday a surge of cooler air is expected by afternoon, and this surge in addition to steep lapse rates through the boundary layer will again allow for gusty winds, perhaps close to advisory criteria in the afternoon/early evening. Tuesday will be cooler, but still mild as a cooler airmass advects south into the region.
859 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Satellite indicates mostly thin cirrus turrets circulating within the upper ridge position over the lower MS and TN valley. With dew points in the lower to middle 60s this morning, modified soundings suggest scattered cumulus development this afternoon. High temperatures in the lower 90s look right on target.
402 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Quiet conditions across most of the area greet us this morning as we remain between the influence of a well upstream midlevel trough and a mid level ridge to the southeast. With the best flow aloft remaining well west of the area, closer to the midlevel trough there isn't much in the way of mid level support for ascent. By mid day the low level flow should weaken a bit, which will bring down the chance of rain.
Upper level ridge of high pressure continues over the southeast today, which will bring high temperatures in the mid 80s for the beaches and into the low to mid 90s inland, which is well above normal for late May. As front continues to push southward Tuesday, chances for light rain continue with thunderstorms as the upper level ridge of high pressure looses strength and finally begins to shift offshore. Highs Tuesday will still reach the low to mid 90s inland, although will be a little cooler near the coast in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Despite a weak trough lingering near the area through this period, high pressure aloft should preclude chances for rainfall.
Therefore, a TEMPO was placed in these TAFs due to the high probability. A very subtle short wave at 500mb was rotating around the larger upper level low centered in the Intermountain West.
Coverage should diminish this evening, although some continued chance for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain overnight and into Tuesday due to the proximity of the upper low lifting across Texas.
Expect MVFR conditions to continue to develop across portions of the Rio Grande Valley this morning through this afternoon as a 500mb trough across south Texas brings showers across the area this morning and enhances seabreeze convection in the afternoon to produce thunderstorms in the vicinity of local aerodromes. /issued 331 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb low/trough across south Texas today will provide another round of seabreeze convection across the eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Another coastal flood statement will likely be needed tonight for the lower Texas coast. Will issue a Rip Current Statement for a high threat of rip currents in the surf along the lower Texas coast today as the combination of long period swells across the western Gulf of Mexico and spring tides provides a greater potential for rip currents.
623 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over western Montana with a trough of low pressure extending south into northeastern Nevada and northern Utah. Downstream of this feature, high pressure was located over northwestern Alabama with a ridge extending north northwest into southern Manitoba. West of the trough of low pressure, a low amplitude ridge extended up the northwestern coast of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was located over eastern Montana and North Dakota. A cold front extended south through the middle of Nebraska into far northwestern Kansas. The trough axis will move east of the area, leaving the forecast area in a region of subsidence.