Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 501 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ (Today and Tonight) The warming trend will continue today and tonight, with temperatures remaining warmer than usual early April temperatures.
For the overnight period, surface ridging and upper level ridging are expected to build into the region. From I-65 and points west, highs look to warm into the lower 60s.
The source of the continued inclement weather is a large, closed system of low pressure wobbling around Alberta. The result will be a deepening of the trough over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a back-door cold front associated with the Canadian low pressure center will breach the Continental Divide again in northwest Montana late tonight or early Thursday morning. Ample moisture and instability will interact with the cold front and result in cool temperatures and wet weather through tonight and Thursday.
A closed low system will meander over Alberta during the midweek period with multiple pieces of energy ejecting out of the Pacific northwest, enhancing troughing across the western U. and amplifying an upper-level ridge downstream. This upper-level ridge will first amplify across the Midwest and will gradually build in across the Great Lakes through the end of the week.
High pressure will build from the northwest through Tonight with cool and dry flow continuing. However, with the flow becoming more from the north, readings near the coast will be more moderate due to the relatively warmer coastal waters, with lows in the middle 50s.
Further south, expect some rain and snow showers to persist through the afternoon and into the evening, potentially mixed with some light freezing rain and/or sleet. Precipitation across the far south central and southern James River Valley will likely start as rain, transitioning to a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow, and then eventually to all snow. At times on Thursday, snow may mix with freezing drizzle across the southern James River Valley as forecast soundings suggest the loss of ice aloft periodically. Yet another wave rounds the base of the trough into southwestern and south central North Dakota during the late morning hours on Thursday, spreading accumulating snow across portions of the southwest and much of the central.
150 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2020 Strengthening low pressure will drift slowly away from the North Carolina coast this morning, bringing a cool northerly flow into the area.
1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Flow aloft becomes southwesterly today as a narrow corridor of upper ridging builds in.
/issued 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ The morning sfc analysis indicates weak ridging in place from the Lower Toledo Bend Country of WCntrl LA NE into the MS Valley/IL, which remains progged to gradually drift E into the OH/TN Vallies and the SE CONUS later this afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows a deep upper level longwave trough situated over western Canada. Farther east, a more moist airmass may attenuate the warmup somewhat today and temperatures will be relegated to the lower to middle 70s. Have raised overnight lows especially over central and eastern sections of the forecast area where lows should stay in the low to mid 50s.
At the surface and inverted trof associated with low pressure near the OK panhandle stretched through western NE into the western Dakotas. Attendant warm front extended along the SD/NE border into central IA. Meanwhile a cold front was pushing through the western Dakotas and the NE panhandle.
Tonight should be warmer for most areas than last night.
316 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure slowly building in from the northwest will bring cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 66 45 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 62 42 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 63 42 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 59 36 66 41 / 10 0 0 0 0.
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Main change through the short term could be summed as pumping the brakes, as much of the activity associated with this next system looks to remain west and north of our CWA until Thursday afternoon as the cold front starts advancing east across MN.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Shallow 500 mb ridging will build over Mexico and southern TX throughout tonight. A series of 500 mb vort maxes will then move over the top of the ridge axis on Thur/Thur Night. This will tend to shift the ridge axis farther eastwards shift the 500 mb pattern to a more zonal configuration.
240 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2020 Strengthening low pressure will drift slowly away from the North Carolina coast, bringing a cool northerly flow into the area.
Cloud cover over the Cumberland Plateau has kept temperatures in the low 40s this morning, but elsewhere temps are creeping toward the upper 40s and into the 50s.
This increase in upper clouds will continue as upper ridge is forecast to pass through the region this evening. This will occur at the same time the upper flow transitions to the southwest as an upper trough moves through the northern Rockies.
235 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 The short-term forecast will be dominated by high pressure which will bring mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be possible in northeast Georgia which will increase frost potential, especially in the protected mountain valleys. Temperatures Thursday will rebound several degrees to near seasonal normals as heights begin to rise as mid-level ridging starts to build eastward.
An increase in high cloudiness is expected as subtropical moisture gets entrained into the southern stream flow ahead of the western CONUS trough. Falling surface pressure in the lee of the Rockies along with the exiting ridge will result in increasing southerly winds today, with highs into the 70s for most areas. A strong upper wave swinging through the northwestern parts of the CONUS will drive a cold front into central KS by late Thursday, with an associated dryline extending southward through western OK.
124 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Showers will end this evening as weak low pressure departs.
1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through Thursday bringing dry conditions.
This will result in warmer overnight temps in the upper 50s and 60s.
1044 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through Thursday bringing dry conditions.
High pressure will dominate through the near term with dry conditions through tomorrow. The big difference weather wise compared to the past few days are the cooler temperatures.
353 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Low pressure east of North Carolina will lift slowly toward the New England coast overnight. A trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft extended northwest into Pennsylvania, along with a low- level easterly flow of moist air off the Atlantic Ocean.
235 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Skies will become mostly clear tonight into Thursday as high pressure builds in.
1126 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure slowly building in from the northwest will bring cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend.
Current satellite imagery shows high clouds spilling into the area as an upper level ridge moves into the Mid-South. Areas near the Tennessee river will drop into the lower 40s by early morning on Thursday.
233 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Deep NW CONUS upper trough and associated front side jet continues to dig into the region as a potent cold front surges south. This will continue to support scattered showers over the SE half through the afternoon with windy conds as the cold front shifts south. As the main upper trough starts to shift closer the region. However, given the strong cold frontal surge ongoing across the region, prefer the NAM solution (as opposed to the RAP HRRR) as to where the strongest concentrated FGEN will develop. Further SE over scentral SD, dry slotting will support freezing rain at times with little to no snow accums.
Weak high pressure will move slowly east across the area over the next 24 hours, resulting in dry weather and near normal temperatures.
The latter half of this week will be influenced by ridging over the area leading to dry weather. Clouds continue today as a low off to the NE is taking its time to move eastward, but are expected to diminish overnight as a ridge moves in over the area.
Cloud cover over the Cumberland Plateau has kept temperatures in the low 40s this morning, but elsewhere temps are creeping toward the upper 40s and into the 50s. Look for VFR wx today as high pressure continues to build in from the NW.
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 The morning sfc analysis indicates weak ridging in place from the Lower Toledo Bend Country of WCntrl LA NE into the MS Valley/IL, which remains progged to gradually drift E into the OH/TN Vallies and the SE CONUS later this afternoon.
244 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Surface pressure gradient remains tight across the area due to a deepening low pressure system across CO. Tonight this low will gradually fill and move east into KS/OK.
346 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure over the western Ohio Valley with a north-south axis extending into Canada will slowly push east and linger over the IN/OH border for much of the day Thursday.
Dry conditions persist across the region in the wake of yesterday's cold front. High pressure at the surface briefly builds in as weak ridging aloft slides east into the region the near term. After a cool start this morning, temperatures will struggle to reach into the low 70s this afternoon, which is slightly cooler than normal for this time of year.
Fair weather high pressure at the surface and aloft currently over the region will continue to migrate to the east.
As the West Coast trough shifts east over the next few days, our temperatures will go on a bit of a ride along with some reoccurring chances for some showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorms, and a brief return of some cold temperatures.
After another mild night tonight, a significant warm-up is expected Thursday under clearing skies and a transition to downslope westerly flow in response to an upper trough developing from the Rockies into the Central Plains.
Warmer behind the dryline with gusty southwest and west winds for areas mainly west of a San Angelo to Abilene line.
1130 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Water vapor shows broad upper low over southwest Canada and the northwest CONUS. At the surface, low is deepening over eastern MT with trof extending eastward through western SD. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front, with a wide range of highs; mid/upper 30s from northeast WY and northwest SD to the mid/upper 60s over south central SD. There will be enough warm air aloft to support a wintry mix across south central SD, with the possibility of a tenth or two of freezing rain before thermal profiles become supportive for all snow Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge southward across central Kansas late Thursday afternoon and reach southeast Kansas by Thursday night. Therefore, if any storms can develop they would be isolated in nature along the front with a better chance of surface based storms in northwest Oklahoma closer to warmer temperature maximum.
313 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 The cold front is already half way through the forecast area this afternoon with temps dropping into the 40s in the Missouri River Valley and winds shifting to the northwest. Most solutions, however, do keep the upper levels warmer over the east for most of Thursday. That combination of higher QPF and warmer T aloft will lead to some significant ice accumulations on Thursday across the eastern forecast area.
1018 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure over the western Ohio Valley with a north-south axis extending into Canada will slowly push east and linger over the IN/OH border for much of the day Thursday.
926 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure dominate with clear skies and lows falling into the 40s. High pressure will dominate through the near term with dry conditions through tomorrow. The big difference weather wise compared to the past few days are the cooler temperatures.
On Thursday, the upper trough will start to shift east, with the best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the West Central and Boise Mountains.
A cold front will track south across northern Utah prior to stalling over central Utah tonight.
639 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through Thursday bringing dry conditions.
High pressure to the north of the area will continue to sink into the region tonight, with light northerly winds and mainly clear skies.
520 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Deep NW CONUS upper trough and associated front side jet continues to dig into the region as a potent cold front surges south. This will continue to support scattered showers over the SE half through the afternoon with windy conds as the cold front shifts south. As the main upper trough starts to shift closer the region. However, given the strong cold frontal surge ongoing across the region, prefer the NAM solution (as opposed to the RAP HRRR) as to where the strongest concentrated FGEN will develop. Further SE over scentral SD, dry slotting will support freezing rain at times with little to no snow accums.
BDN and RDM likely to hold worst conditions over the next 1-3 hrs as upper level low lies just west of the Cascade Crest and is promoting snow and rain showers along the east Cascade slopes.
/Issued 235 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ The short-term forecast will be dominated by high pressure which will bring mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be possible in northeast Georgia which will increase frost potential, especially in the protected mountain valleys. Temperatures Thursday will rebound several degrees to near seasonal normals as heights begin to rise as mid-level ridging starts to build eastward.
A dry cold front will push through the area on Today, keeping gusty winds in the Kern County mountains and desert. Pleasant spring day felt across the Central California Interior as sunshine was observed over most of the Valley along with slightly warmer temperatures. A weak cold frontal passage this afternoon across Central California produced a stronger surface pressure gradient.
Models hinted at a drier atmosphere tomorrow as high pressure builds down for most of the area, with the exception being the southeast (Wibaux, eastern Prairie, the southeastern half of Dawson, and far southern Richland Counties) where some snow is possible. Latest 500mb heights suggest an upper level ridge building over the region at that time with dry and mild weather conditions expected.
A cold front is expected to develop over the region Thursday evening, but most of that is expected to occur after the short term forecast period. High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky, north-northeasterly flow will develop over the northeastern portion of our forecast responsibility, keeping temperatures cooler and more humid, whereas the over the southern I-25 corridor and over the southeastern parts of the southeastern plains will be much warmer.
714 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure slowly building in from the northwest will bring cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend.
735 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Skies will become mostly clear tonight into Thursday as high pressure builds in.
Temperatures will drop into the lower and middle 30s with clearing sky and calm winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 67 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 63 41 69 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 65 42 69 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 60 35 65 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 NC.
918 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure overhead will result in light winds and mostly clear skies, with the exception of some high cirrus clouds streaming in from the west. Overnight lows dip down to the lower 40s for most and upper 30s in the higher elevations. While frost is certainly possible in the higher elevations, it is not expected to be widespread and mostly contained to elevated surfaces.
Temperatures will drop into the lower and middle 30s with clearing sky and calm winds.
648 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Slow-moving upper-level trough will remain to our west through the short term period with warm air advection to continue aloft. Precipitation type should remain all rain with surface temperatures dipping to around freezing for a small portion of the Arrowhead and near Ashland tonight. For areas where temps overnight dip to freezing, there is a small chance of light freezing rain. Think the ground temps will remain above freezing, which will limit the icing potential. More of the same Thursday as the trough slowly drifts eastward into western Minnesota. While this forecast package has trended warmer, the risk of accumulating snow, especially tonight from central into north-central Minnesota is non-zero.
940 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Sfc ridging has shifted east of our region this evening but enough of the ridge exists across our eastern third such that winds have become calm and should stay that way overnight.
407 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Slow-moving upper-level trough will remain to our west through the short term period with warm air advection to continue aloft. Precipitation type should remain all rain with surface temperatures dipping to around freezing for a small portion of the Arrowhead and near Ashland tonight. For areas where temps overnight dip to freezing, there is a small chance of light freezing rain. Think the ground temps will remain above freezing, which will limit the icing potential. More of the same Thursday as the trough slowly drifts eastward into western Minnesota. While this forecast package has trended warmer, the risk of accumulating snow, especially tonight from central into north-central Minnesota is non-zero.
846 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through Thursday bringing dry conditions.
Inland areas as well as the Volusia Coast expected to reach the low 50s for overnight lows (mid 50s metro Orlando), and a few more rural spots may reach the upper 40s. Have opted to lower temperatures by a couple of degrees to the mid-upper 50s across these areas with this in mind, but if winds do keep the onshore component lows will be a few degrees warmer than what the forecast reflects.
The cold front is already half way through the forecast area this afternoon with temps dropping into the 40s in the Missouri River Valley and winds shifting to the northwest. Most solutions, however, do keep the upper levels warmer over the east for most of Thursday. That combination of higher QPF and warmer T aloft will lead to some significant ice accumulations on Thursday across the eastern forecast area.
/issued 302 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Shallow 500 mb ridging will build over Mexico and southern TX throughout tonight. A series of 500 mb vort maxes will then move over the top of the ridge axis on Thur/Thur Night. This will tend to shift the ridge axis farther eastwards shift the 500 mb pattern to a more zonal configuration.
950 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 A weak cold front pushed through the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters earlier today. In its wake, a slightly cooler and noticeably drier air mass has migrated into Florida Keys island communities from the northwest. Currently, air temperatures have dropped into the lower 70s. Meanwhile, dewpoint temperatures are down over 10F from this morning, currently in the lower 60s.
/issued 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ Surface pressure gradient remains tight across the area due to a deepening low pressure system across CO. Tonight this low will gradually fill and move east into KS/OK.
704 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Main change through the short term could be summed as pumping the brakes, as much of the activity associated with this next system looks to remain west and north of our CWA until Thursday afternoon as the cold front starts advancing east across MN.
531 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Residual showers south of Pittsburgh will end this evening as weak low pressure departs. High pressure will remain in control during this period, as a blocking ridge over the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys will keep troughing bottled up over the Rockies and northern Plains.
Pacific ridging over the Pacific has slowly expanded eastward, resulting in the tightening of the pressure gradient.
Expect some mixed precipitation of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to occur as it continues to cool down low with the warmer air remaining aloft. The cold front is already half way through the forecast area this afternoon with temps dropping into the 40s in the Missouri River Valley and winds shifting to the northwest. Most solutions, however, do keep the upper levels warmer over the east for most of Thursday. That combination of higher QPF and warmer T aloft will lead to some significant ice accumulations on Thursday across the eastern forecast area.
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure building into the Great Lakes region will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across northern Lower and eastern Upper MI overnight. This is cooler than it has been the past few nights, but still a little above normal for early April. High pressure and associated drier air centered across northern Ontario will continue to build southward into northern Michigan through Thursday. anchored on the west end by an upper lows over British Columbia/Alberta.
913 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure slowly building in from the northwest will bring cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend.
741 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 Residual showers south of Pittsburgh will end this evening as weak low pressure departs. Low and mid level clouds will continue to plague the I 70 corridor through the eve, and areas west of I 77 through the night; otherwise, most areas will be generally clear with building high pressure under continued, cold, nnwly flow aloft. High pressure will remain in control during this period, as a blocking ridge over the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys will keep troughing bottled up over the Rockies and northern Plains.
Expect some mixed precipitation of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to occur as it continues to cool down low with the warmer air remaining aloft. The cold front is already half way through the forecast area this afternoon with temps dropping into the 40s in the Missouri River Valley and winds shifting to the northwest. Most solutions, however, do keep the upper levels warmer over the east for most of Thursday. That combination of higher QPF and warmer T aloft will lead to some significant ice accumulations on Thursday across the eastern forecast area. With only partial saturation in the dendritic growth zone, could be a mix of snow and freezing drizzle.
338 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2020 A low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will move slowly east and out to sea through Friday. The storm combined with high pressure centered near the Great Lakes will result in a cool and dry northerly flow across the area into the first part of the weekend.
For the overnight period, surface ridging and upper level ridging are expected to build into the region. From I-65 and points west, highs look to warm into the lower 60s. Friday morning will start off in the high 30s across portions of the Bluegrass and low 40s elsewhere before light surface winds swing to SE by the afternoon with max temps in the high 60s with a few 70s.
Stable dry conditions under high pressure surface and aloft building in over the eastern U. After cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s early this morning overnight lows will moderate back into the 50s tonight into Friday morning and then 60s by the weekend as the low level north to northeast wind flow veers to the east, with daytime highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s warming into the lower to mid 80s on Friday with even warmer readings expected for the upcoming weekend and beyond.
A broad upper trough over the western CONUS will begin to move to the east with one vort lobe in particular rotating across the northern Rockies today that will help unlock cold air quickly southward through the High Plains today and tonight. That cold front will arrive in the forecast area after midnight.