Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong ridge of high pressure in the mid and upper levels will continue to be the dominant weather feature across south central Texas today. Recent 00Z data compared with data from 19/00Z shows the center of the ridge of high pressure has shifted into far west Texas. With the ridge shifted farther west, a weak disturbance will move southward into portions of central Texas today. On Wednesday, the mid and upper area of high pressure will weaken slightly and this will result in a slight drop in high temperatures.
Ridging aloft will allow temperatures to rapidly increase for the weekend. While they remain consistent in the track and evolution of the much talked about upper-level trough and associated mid-level low placement, they have less of a precipitation signal in tonights forecast solutions. In the mean time, much cooler temperatures for the interior remain on track, with a slight chance of rain still in the forecast. Otherwise, as the system departs the region to our east by the end of the week, ridging aloft will build across the region.
Later this week, the forecast high-amplitude mid-level trough approaches the Plains with associated precipitation chances.
Warm front has lifted far enough north of the affected areas to allow morning sun to burn off fog.
There is an upper level ridge to the east of the forecast area this morning.
Highs will be once again at least 7 degrees above normal ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s far south. mostly clear and warmer with lows mostly in the middle to upper 60s.
958 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Quiet weather across the region with high pressure at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will climb well above normal while humidity levels remain fairly comfortable as dewpoints mix down into the lower 60s this afternoon. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 60s, with Memphis International Airport sitting at 70 degrees. A large upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southern U. Clear skies will result in temperatures peaking in the lower 90s each afternoon with lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A dry weekend is on tap as high pressure remains in control.
Most areas have a northerly component to the winds so we can tell the cold front has cleared the area. Temperatures today will be a little bit warmer, even though a cold front passed through, because of the sunny skies for a more prolonged period. Even though the temperatures will be warmer, it will be relatively dry and not as humid. Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees cooler than this morning and a few spots in the far north may flirt with the 60 degree mark, especially the cooler valleys. Models have been fairly consistent with an upper level low developing across southern Georgia and retrograding back toward Alabama.
404 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A low pressure system off the Southern California coast will draw tropical moisture into Southern California with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Scattered showers will continue over the Washington Cascades as an upper low moves slowly into the Pacific northwest. The upper low will continue to impact our weather the next few days with scattered showers into Wednesday then a more widespread coverage of showers Wed night into Thu.
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
Weak cold front will push south into Se Ga this afternoon and across northeast Fl this eve.
Latest obs show spots a mile of less in the vicinity of the warm front and should clear by mid morning.
Some patchy fog is possible this morning, especially as we near sunrise, with dew points hovering in the low to mid 60s and dew point depressions finally starting to fall into the 2-4 degree range. Another beautiful day is on tap today with plenty of sunshine and dew points remaining in the low to middle 60s. This is going to be the case for the next several days as a pattern characterized by weak ridging aloft and weak to no return flow settles into the region. While those temperatures will be several degrees above normal, persistently lower dew points should make these warmer temperatures bearable. Overall, it looks like this dry pattern we will settle into this week will persist through the weekend as high pressure over the southeast U.
Light north- northeast flow exists throughout the depth of the lower/mid- tropospheric column which has allowed for a slightly cooler morning, with temperatures currently ranging from the u50s in southern TN to the l/m 60s elsewhere. Short term nwp guidance remains in excellent agreement in forecasting the cutoff mid/upper-level cyclone to our southeast to meander across southern/eastern portions of SC from today through Wednesday, as any significant motion of this feature will be blocked by a strengthening 500-mb anticyclone centered across OK/TX and ridge axis which is progged to expand east-northeastward across the OH valley.
Upper high at 594 dm centered near Childress this morning will migrate to northern Oklahoma by this evening. High clouds will filter in from the west through this evening, and south winds of 15-30 mph will be common as lee trough intensifies in eastern Colorado.
Persistent high pressure aloft will flatten out Wed/Thu as disturbances shift northeast from the Rockies to the Corn Belt/Great Lakes. Medium range guidance is persistent in shifting a strong upper level trough into the western CONUS late Thu-Fri with a downstream strong upper level ridge building over us. The high amplitude pattern will continue into the weekend with the western system cutting off and only very slowly shifting eastward. The timing of this rain is questionable given the high amplitude/slow pattern.
1220 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
1111 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure and northeasterly low level flow is maintaining a dry and warm airmass over the ArkLaMiss with precipitable water values falling below an inch now. An upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over Texas this morning will slowly build eastward over the next 2 days, and a low pressure system over the East Coast will slowly lift northward. Through the mid and lower levels a ridge of high pressure will translate from the Plains toward the Great Lakes - keeping the ArkLaMiss beneath northeasterly flow aloft. Clear skies and deeper mixing should see temps climb into the low to mid 90s and relative humidity values drop to near 35 percent.
/Today/ High pressure has settled into Iowa overnight and has brought temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the north. Strong theta-e advection in the lower levels will commence this afternoon as the high pressure moves to the east. A bit of a moisture discontinuity though considering that by the time better saturation occurs in the lower levels drying will be occurring aloft.
in combination with increasing onshore flow ahead of the digging PacNW trof. Although the cooler air has not quite made it inland. and some 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. and up to 15 degrees or so cooler through the Carquinez Strait. A little more cloudiness is also expected to develop in Norcal as cyclonic flow increases over the region ahead of the approaching trof the next couple of days. JHM Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the strong ridge of the past several days is beginning to get nudged eastward as the deep trough over the PacNW begins to pivot this direction.
1052 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. High pressure over the region will provide another pleasant day with temperatures 10 degrees above normal on average and mostly sunny skies. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions. Model exhibit for the weekend is of amplified flow with development of a Mississippi Valley Ridge and East Coast trough, resulting in northwest flow over the Upper Ohio Region. That scenario would maintain generally dry weather and trend temperature back toward the averages depending on position of the ridge.
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure was over the Northland early this morning. This high will move east today and a trough will move into the region and act on a baroclinic zone to produce a strong area of FGEN. A warm front will extend from low pressure in the Central Plains northeast into southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.
A fair amount of mid level clouds will be present again today, but we should still see a mild day with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s. A warm front lifts into southern Minnesota tonight as moisture returns on a 25-35 knot low level jet.
The dense fog is expected to impact the morning commute, before dissipating later this morning by 9 am as sunrise causes mixing in the lower layers of the atmosphere as high pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes. This high will provide dry weather with a few clouds and above normal temperatures during the daytime hours. Later tonight a warm front is slated to move north into southern Wisconsin, causing showers and thunderstorms to develop north of the boundary across central and east central Wisconsin.
A weak ridge of high pressure was over the Northland early this morning. This high will move east today and a trough will move into the region and act on a baroclinic zone to produce a strong area of FGEN. A warm front will extend from low pressure in the Central Plains northeast into southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.
The warmth is courtesy of a south and southwest flow of air aloft ahead of a low pressure center that will be situated in the plains states much of the work week.
Weak cold front dropping southward and hard to pick out on the surface obs over central Illinois at the moment, but should the HRRR focuses it along the I-72 corridor by late morning with little additional movement. A weak west-southwest to east-northeast oriented cold front is currently sinking across northern Illinois. Forecast is warm and rather calm for the most part as the upper ridge builds over the eastern half of the CONUS for the rest of the week.
* None Cold front will continue to push through Southeast Michigan early this morning. Upper low centered over northeast Manitoba will lift into St James Bay today, while another upper low drops through the Pacific Northwest. Sunshine, dry air and little change in 925-850mb temps behind the weak front will yield max temps only slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Model forecast soundings are showing a strong cap in place as good theta-e advection works in with the weak warm front.
A weak trough will remain over the waters, with light and variable winds through mid week. From late this week into the weekend, high pressure will steadily build in north of the waters, with a return to more persistent east to northeast flow.
However, with a somewhat stronger northerly component today, the southern half of the CWA would make sense to see the highest chances.
1002 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days, with dry conditions, and above normal temperatures for late September. A weak cold front is actually expected to drop across the area this afternoon, but lack of moisture or forcing should preclude any shower activity, or even much in the way of cloud cover.
A combination of a low pressure system over the Carolinas and upper level high pressure over the Southern Plains will create deep layer northerly flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the Southeast. This will push drier, but not appreciably cooler air, south over the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to remain well above seasonal levels due to subsidence from the Plains upper high as it pushes east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the drier air allowing better insolation. Highs in the low to mid 90s expected today, with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s to around 70, warmer along the immediate coast.
/Issued 402 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ Short term largely influenced by low pressure over the Carolinas. Flow around the low has resulted in NE winds across the area this morning, feeding Atlantic moisture back into the area. Models keep the low nearly stagnant over the Carolinas and removed from the zonal flow over the northern U.
The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure will remain west of AR today. but will continue to see influence from this ridge through the short term period.
1035 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 WX pattern similar to yesterday as a broad sfc/low lvl trof extending from a storm system over the VA/NC Tidewater area has kept the local pressure field disrupted. Sfc trof draped over the ern GOMex/FL peninsula keeping the lcl pgrad quite weak, resulting in a light wrly sfc/bndry lyr breeze acrs the region.
Surface wise, a nebulous ridge lies over the Florida peninsula and the adjacent nearshore Atlantic and Gulf waters. Given the close and weakness of the ridge, winds are light and variable at less than 10 knots on our marine district.
The gradual transition to a cooler and wetter pattern will continue today as a Pacific trough approaches the forecast area. Another warm day for the lower valleys and areas near the Nevada border, but temperatures will trend down compared to yesterday on the Oregon side near Burns and Baker City. Strong southwest flow over the area will yield gusty winds this afternoon near the Nevada border and along the ridge tops over the Idaho mountains. A deepening trough along the west coast will increase precipitation chances through Wednesday. The upper trough cuts off along the coast late tonight through Wednesday. For this period models are showing the focus of precipitation development near the low center in western Oregon and across s-central Idaho which is positioned under the more dynamic and moist southwest flow out ahead of the low.
1102 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A trough along the coast combined with an upper-level low pressure system over the area will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are forecast later in the week as an upper ridge builds over the southeastern states. Surface circulation associated with former tropical cyclone Julia near Cape Hatteras. Surface front/trough that came through last evening currently offshore the SC coast. So, despite relatively cool temps aloft associated with upper low and dry air aloft, severe threat may be limited. Pop guidance continues to indicate the highest chance rain Wednesday.
More widespread precipitation will begin tonight as a broad upper trof deepens along the west coast and its associated diffluent southwest flow aloft moisture feed continues over the area. A low pressure trof is over the Eastern Pacific and Central and Southwest Montana are underneath moist, unsettled flow ahead of this system.
High pressure and dry air aloft will maintain VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. /issued 409 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered over Texas will remain nearly in place through the forecast period. Will continue to lean towards persistence and the warmer ECMWF MOS numbers for high temperatures through the period.
A cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward and cross our area late today and tonight. This front could touch off a brief shower across the higher terrain with its passage.
However, a low pressure system hanging on over New Mexico may generate a few showers in eastern areas, especially closer to the border.
1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air will move into the area for the start of the weekend. A wide range of temperatures today with the low bisecting the area. An area of low pressure will move across the region today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of the area. As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into the region and winds will pick up. A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into Friday.
High pressure will remain over the region through Friday resulting in mostly dry weather as well as warmer inland temperatures. High pressure will continue to build over the area today with mostly dry weather persisting through the week. Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon and a few locations may top out in the lower to mid 80s. The ridge along our coast looks to keep the rain north of the California- Oregon border.
646 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016 A cold front is moving across the state this morning.
/Issued 720 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ Digging upper trough and fairly sharp short wave sweep into the region by late this afternoon. Associated cold front enters the northwest by late in the daytime period. Strong northwest flow pattern sets up Friday with cooler and drier airmass quickly sweeping across the forecast area on gusty northwest winds. it appeared we would may have a deep closed upper low that would keep precip chances in through the first half of the weekend. Nothing of the sort is advertised now though with a progressive frontal passage allowing for upper low to transition to the Carolinas and dry air to filter in quite readily to the area. Upper 30s possible for the higher elevations Sat morning and then more widespread.
The upper ridge that has dominated area weather recently will shift out of the region this afternoon. allowing a cold front to approach from the northwest.
A lobe of lower level moisture slinging around the western periphery of the low is supporting scattered weak shower activity across south florida and adjacent Atlantic waters. Short Term Update - Winds will trend downwards and back more northerly as the ridge to our north weakens further and the low off the Bahamas moves north northwestward. Winds will trend downwards over the next 24 hours and turn more northerly as a ridge to our north dissipates and a low east of the northern Bahamas moves north northwestward.
658 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 An upper trough over the Central Plains early this morning, will continue to dig east-southeastward with amplification, reaching the eastern CONUS by midday Friday. Patches of sprinkles could affect north-central and eastern Kansas this morning, as the cold, mid- level thermal trough moves across the region. Highs in the low-mid 60s (a few degrees cooler than normal) look on track given some afternoon insolation.
Otherwise upper ridge building over ern AZ and wrn NM with a few-sct cu and ci. Cooler temperatures are expected today, but the drop in temperatures will be short-lived. An upper level ridge will build into the area Friday and shift eastward over the weekend.
An upper level trough will swing through the region today, ejecting a stalled frontal system off to the east, but not before providing widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across the area today, with some potential for showers lingering tonight. Surface analysis late this morning shows low pressure over Western Kentucky. A upper trough was found across the Central Plains states. closer to the front where a bit warmer air and better instability is located. Will hold onto some lingering pops mainly early in the night tonight, with the remainder of the short term likely to be dry under the influence of high pressure.
The prefrontal trough axis has already moved offshore this morning with light northerly winds in place. Offshore winds will gradually increase behind the pre- frontal trough today in advance of the cold front.
748 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Aviation Low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley today will bring occasional rain, mainly to areas south and east of Grand Rapids.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 57 64 42 / 50 70 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 54 60 42 / 50 80 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 53 59 42 / 50 80 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 52 59 41 / 30 80 60 10.
The upper level ridge that brought a break in the precipitation yesterday is shifting east ahead of the next system that will move in today. A warm front is visible on the satellite but should have just a light brush on the coast as the southern edge washes out on the weakening upper level ridge early this morning. The cold front moves in quickly later this morning. This front also dissipates without much inland intrusion as the upper level ridge, though weakening, still remains though though the axis is shifted slightly east.
/EC/ Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the area this morning as mid level clouds expand ahead of an approching cold front. North-northwesterly wind gusts will bring drier and much cooler temperatures behind the front tonight with temperatures dropping well into the 50s.
736 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain later today and into Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. The warm front will continue to lift north today as a midlevel trough continues to dig over the Mississippi Valley. As low pressure moves up the Ohio Valley later today along the advancing cold front, showers and some thunderstorms will advance across the area, so categorical PoPs were maintained. The frontal precipitation will drift eastward Friday morning with additional showers developing behind the boundary in the strong cold air advection and passage of the upper level trough axis. Much colder weather will follow for the weekend as the upper trough develops over the Eastern CONUS.
The forecast is in excellent working order depicting freezing fog for parts of the area this morning. The freezing fog advisory has been expanded to cover a larger area of the CWA based on observations and trends. Maliawco Forecast challenges will focus mainly on the presence and persistence of freezing fog along the Yellowstone River Valley this morning. Felt it was best to proceed with a freezing fog advisory this morning for Dawson and Richland counties. The synoptic weather pattern basically oscillates from weak dirty ridging to zonal through the remainder of the short term forecast period.
Upper air analysis shows increasingly amplified flow as energy drops into the base of the trough over the central US. Surface analysis shows high pressure over the northern plains with the surface front from Chicago to Kansas City. With the upper trough over the area today, expect clouds to linger through much of the day. This, combined with low level cold advection, will result in much cooler temperatures with highs mainly in the 50s. Only fly in that ointment would be if the upper trough slows causing clouds to linger well into the overnight hours.
1050 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Update Low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley today will bring occasional rain, mainly to areas south and east of Grand Rapids.
740 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken today. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Forecast concerns today will be showers/sprinkles ending, clouds today and Friday along with temperatures, then warmer weather for the weekend. Much cooler today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Mid level ridging increases with thickening clouds Friday in an area of h7 warm air advection. A wave tops the ridge across the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
A cold front was located along the Ohio River this morning. Our northwest counties will have the highest rain chances from noon to 4pm, while the highest chances for BNA will be 2pm - 7pm. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 70s northwest to lower 80s southeast.