Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today through Sunday) High pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern the remainder of the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 60s over the interior to the lower/mid 70s east coast.
154 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Upper-level ridging is moving into the lower Great Lakes this morning, ensuring that conditions remain dry across Upper Michigan. There are clouds though that are traversing across the forecast area, on the periphery of said ridging and ahead of an incoming weak perturbation from the W by later today. where clouds are more sparse, dipping below the freezing mark.
Satellite imagery as of this afternoon is showing a well-formed low pressure circulation over the Gulf of Alaska. By Sunday night, the Pacific low pressure system will have brought enough moisture onshore to produce showers across north- central Idaho and northwest Montana.
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through most of the weekend.
232 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Fairly benign weather thru the early week periods with some form of upper troughing or re-troughing across the central/southern Plains. Current upper low will lift northeast across Arkansas tonight with some light precip/rain on its northwest fringe clipping far southeast Kansas.
153 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 High pressure will continue to extend into the region through tonight. Weakening low pressure passing west of the area will bring showers Sunday into Sunday night.
1134 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through most of the weekend.
A compact upper low will continue to pull away from the Southern Plains, but another system within the active southern jet stream branch was moving across northern Arizona this afternoon.
A trough of low pressure aloft lagged behind the vorticity and stretched from northern South Dakota into Manitoba. At the surface, a closed low was analyzed near Mobridge with a trough extending north into Montana, similar to the mid-level trough. On Sunday the trough to our west is forecast to propagate eastward across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Winds will veer westerly or northwesterly in the wake of the trough. Think temps will be a little cooler behind the trough with the biggest change over central and north-central Minnesota. Highs will range from the middle 50s to the low 60s, still 8 to 18 degrees above normal.
339 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through most of the weekend.
Winds are expected to diminish this afternoon as a mid-level low pressure system over northeast TX continues to move off towards the northeast thereby, relaxing the pressure gradient. As the trough associated with the aforementioned low moves away from the South Texas, mid-level flow will shift from northwest to the southwest. At the surface, high pressure across TX moves east over the weekend. Simultaneously, a weak upper level low develops over the Rockies along with a trough axis draping over the Desert Southwest. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 50s.
Even so, still looking for above normal readings in the lower to mid 60s with plenty of sunshine save for some mid to upper level clouds clipping NW IA.
The pattern will remain with a split flow regime with the polar jet stream remaining zonal and low pressure systems moving through the south.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Upper low currently lifting northeast into central Arkansas this afternoon with a broad area of light to moderate rain on north/east side of system. Active weather pattern likely into the weekend ahead of vigorous/compact upper low. As mentioned in previous discussions, exact timing of upper low/storms somewhat uncertain, including if frontal boundary makes it into the area ahead of low.
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak upper level trough north of the region allowing for mid and high level clouds to streak across the region. The trough will give way to high pressure tomorrow allowing for skies to clear out and temps to warm a few degrees higher than today.
Discussion: We remain dry tonight with increasing clouds as the stacked, closed low approaches from the west with southwesterly flow aloft. As the upper level low shifts eastward tonight and Sunday, upper diffluence increases across the region and low-level southerly flow increases in response to the upper divergence. This will also lead to the highest max temperatures on Sunday being across the lower elevations just west of the Appalachian chain. 5 inches of rain most likely with the highest amounts across the southern Cumberland Plateau. Downslope winds will limit overall rainfall across the lower elevations west of the Appalachians and across northeast Tennessee.
We'll warm back up tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s, but temperatures will only get into the 50s right along Lake Michigan. There will be a slight chance for rain in far southeast Wisconsin Sunday night as the low currently over the Ark-La-Tex region slowly moves northeast into northern Illinois.
The closed upper low over the Arklatex region continues to lift northeast this afternoon with mid and high clouds streaming over the forecast area. Surface ridging remains in control of northeast Kansas making for another very nice fall day with light winds and temperatures in the upper 60s. As the upper low pivots northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight, clouds increase in coverage across the area with most of the precipitation with this system remaining east of the area.
1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (The rest of today ) Upper level low currently over northeast Texas will pivot into southwest Arkansas this afternoon keeping scattered light to moderate rain showers across the area today.
1247 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A mid/upper trough continues to spin across the Arklatex region with a large shield of rain across eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and much of Arkansas. As this trough begins to lift northeast across Arkansas today we could see some showers impact far southeast KS.
Temps will range up into the lwr/mid 40s F closer to Lake Superior in the high terrain down to the lake as sw to s winds stay up thru the night.
252 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Overview: An upper level low. high temperatures should be ~4-7F cooler than today.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Building high pressure and nearly zonal flow aloft keeps things pleasant and quiet in the short term, as one mid-level trough swings out of East Texas and another eventually develops across West Texas.
231 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
Meanwhile, a sfc trof will slowly advect east over the CWA and into MN tonight. Behind the trof sfc winds will go light, which should allow for some cold air drainage over favored low spots, leading to lows perhaps cooler than model blend. Behind the sfc trof on Sunday, the airmass is forecast to be a bit cooler over central/northeast SD/western MN, thus highs will also be a touch cooler vs Saturday.
636 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (The rest of this afternoon ) Upper low currently lifting northeast into central Arkansas this afternoon with a broad area of light to moderate rain on north/east side of system. Active weather pattern likely into the weekend ahead of vigorous/compact upper low. As mentioned in previous discussions, exact timing of upper low/storms somewhat uncertain, including if frontal boundary makes it into the area ahead of low.
(Tonight) An upper level low was located over central AR this evening and will move slowly northward into southern MO by Sunday morning.
The surface trof is passing I-29 at this time, per the wind shift to the northwest. Meanwhile, a sfc trof will slowly advect east over the CWA and into MN tonight. Behind the trof sfc winds will go light, which should allow for some cold air drainage over favored low spots, leading to lows perhaps cooler than model blend. Behind the sfc trof on Sunday, the airmass is forecast to be a bit cooler over central/northeast SD/western MN, thus highs will also be a touch cooler vs Saturday.
Winds will turn around the dial a bit during the afternoon and evening hours as the center of the high shifts southeast.
Widespread precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return by mid-week as the next potentially strong winter-like system pushes through the region.
344 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Storm track remains well to our north into Canada, with a weak closed low over Arkansas and light southwesterly flow aloft. Marginally higher moisture may allow for an isolated flurry for southern portions of the high country but it'll be another dry day in general.
609 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Building high pressure and nearly zonal flow aloft keeps things pleasant and quiet in the short term, as one mid-level trough swings out of East Texas and another eventually develops across West Texas.
805 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (through Tonight) High pressure will extend down across the east coast, from a low center over the northeast through Tonight. An inverted trough will remain just off the coast this period. The strongest core of the trough will drift north through the night. The best chance for showers this afternoon and evening will be over coastal NE FL, with this chance shifting north through the night with the core of the trough.
628 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Fairly benign weather thru the early week periods with some form of upper troughing or re-troughing across the central/southern Plains. Current upper low will lift northeast across Arkansas tonight with some light precip/rain on its northwest fringe clipping far southeast Kansas.
Lower elevation river valley locations are expected to drop down to near freezing tonight, while other areas will not be as cold.
533 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Storm track remains well to our north into Canada, with a weak closed low over Arkansas and light southwesterly flow aloft. Marginally higher moisture may allow for an isolated flurry for southern portions of the high country but it'll be another dry day in general.
721 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through most of the weekend.
634 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Scattered showers continue to push east to west across mainly central/eastern portions of the area on the backside of the closed low centered across the Arklatex region. Highs will be a bit cooler across northern and eastern Oklahoma under cloud cover tomorrow, in the mid 60s, while much of the rest of the area will see temperatures reach near 70 degrees.
1004 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. High pressure returns in mid-week and we go back to a very dry pattern. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
950 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. High pressure returns in mid-week and we go back to a very dry pattern. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
The main precipitation shield is expected to lift north of the area over the next few hours as the upper low wraps up.
829 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Water vapor imagery showing weak upper level trof moving through Colorado tonight. Can't rule out a few light showers over the higher peaks tonight and possibly again Sunday afternoon as the orographic flow shifts to a more conducive northwest. Generally warmer overnight lows tonight, especially in the mountains with more cloud cover. Storm track remains well to our north into Canada, with a weak closed low over Arkansas and light southwesterly flow aloft. Marginally higher moisture may allow for an isolated flurry for southern portions of the high country but it'll be another dry day in general.
627 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) It was another nice day with partly sunny skies and temps mainly in the lower 70s. A low pressure system over Arkansas will move northeast to the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days, spinning a swath of deep moisture into the Mid State. Although deep moisture will be available for a time, lift is mediocre and instability is on the low side.
525 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
607 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low responsible for yesterday's rain showers will continue to drift north and east into the Texarkana region. Coupled with mostly clear skies, conditions will be good for radiational cooling, allowing for lows across the area to drop into the low to mid 40s. Highs will be slightly warmer than today with most places in the low to mid 70s.
725 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
607 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Today's splendid fall weather continues uninterrupted through Sunday as broad surface ridging remains over much of the region. A few errant low and mid clouds off the Caprock in the wake of yesterday's upper low will clear out completely this evening making for crystal clear skies and ideal sky gazing. NBM's cooler lows look good in this setup.
449 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Overview: An upper level low. high temperatures should be ~4-7F cooler than today.
626 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
We're starting to see a little fog develop across the east, where temperatures are approaching dewpoints, which are generally in the low 40s. We'll warm back up tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s, but temperatures will only get into the 50s right along Lake Michigan. There will be a slight chance for rain in far southeast Wisconsin Sunday night as the low currently over the Ark-La-Tex region slowly moves northeast into northern Illinois.
the upper low was centered over Northwest Arkansas with precipitable water values in excess of 1 inch wrapping around the low. The bulk of the activity was along the northeast quadrant of the low. the upper low is progged to continue its track north-northeast into Southern Missouri by Sunday morning. With the movement of the low. Mostly cloudy skies and moisture wrapping around the low should help to keep temps and dewpoints from falling to far overnight. have added minor adjustments to PoPs based on the movement of the low and current radar trends. Active weather pattern likely into the weekend ahead of vigorous/compact upper low. As mentioned in previous discussions, exact timing of upper low/storms somewhat uncertain, including if frontal boundary makes it into the area ahead of low.
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Wrap-around clouds from the mid/upper level low have persisted over much of SE TX this afternoon. But, even with the clouds sticking around and NW winds remaining slight- ly elevated (10kt), overnight lows will fall into the lower 50s for most areas. Sun high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s. Clearer skies and decreased N/NW winds tomorrow night will help keep things cool (or even a little cooler) with temperatures ranging from upper 40s for our more northern counties. the mid and upper 50s for H-Town proper (and surrounding suburbs) to the lower 60s at the beaches.
(Today through Monday afternoon) A broad upper trough is centered over the central part of the country. The upper trough will extend southward over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Monday.
1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 With this update, we nudged hourly temperatures down a touch through the early morning to match with the current temperature trend which crashed rather quickly into the low 30s or upper 20s in low lying spots.
Our friendly neighborhood upper low continues to inch northeast over the Ozarks this morning. High clouds associated with the upper low remain in place across our area, along with a few light showers near the KS/MO border. Temperatures will warm Monday into mid week as the upper low pulls away and ridging builds across the eastern CONUS. Southerly flow and WAA will become established as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS, and lee troughing strengthens the local pressure gradient.
1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Fairly benign weather thru the early week periods with some form of upper troughing or re-troughing across the central/southern Plains. Current upper low will lift northeast across Arkansas tonight with some light precip/rain on its northwest fringe clipping far southeast Kansas.
1210 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low responsible for yesterday's rain showers will continue to drift north and east into the Texarkana region. Coupled with mostly clear skies, conditions will be good for radiational cooling, allowing for lows across the area to drop into the low to mid 40s. Highs will be slightly warmer than today with most places in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures then rise a few degrees again for Monday, as weak ridging builds into the Desert Southwest.
930 PM PDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Weak ridging aloft combined with weak offshore flow will bring dry weather with slightly above normal temperatures through Monday.
This stems from the low pressure system currently over Louisiana. Meanwhile, sky cover looks to increase with high clouds continuing to stream in from the Low well to our south. The combination of cloud cover and cooler, drier northwesterly flow will mean high temperatures tomorrow will be a bit cooler, only in the mid 60s. Monday, winds shift again to southwesterly and the Low moves far enough off to the east to bring back mostly sunny skies. Due to the drier southwesterly flow, min humidity during the afternoon on Monday may drop into the low-to- mid 20s in some spots, winds will be fairly light though, so not expecting significant fire concerns. Towards midweek, we'll be watching the approach of a deep upper- level trough moving into the Intermountain West towards the Central Plains.
Winds will drift to the northwest early this morning, as a dry cold front pushes into northeast Nebraska. Cloudy skies in combination with relatively cooler air will keep afternoon highs capped in the mid 60s today, which is still above normal for this time of year. Southerly winds will draw warmer air back into the region Monday, as the low pressure system advances towards the east coast. A trough will dig into the western CONUS by midweek, bringing another of push of warmer air into the Central Plains.
1114 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Wrap-around clouds from the mid/upper level low have persisted over much of SE TX this afternoon. But, even with the clouds sticking around and NW winds remaining slight- ly elevated (10kt), overnight lows will fall into the lower 50s for most areas. Sun high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s. Clearer skies and decreased N/NW winds tomorrow night will help keep things cool (or even a little cooler) with temperatures ranging from upper 40s for our more northern counties. the mid and upper 50s for H-Town proper (and surrounding suburbs) to the lower 60s at the beaches.
Mean layer ridging centered over Mexico and Central America reaches northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas. This ridge is bruised but intact from the mid-latitude cyclone moving northeast into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures are in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
235 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low moving northeast over the Mississippi River Valley. Behind the closed low very dry air was present over the Plains. A band of higher water vapor was present west of the High Plains over the Central Rockies. There will be weak CAA, which will cause highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Monday and Monday night the south winds will allow WAA to return, causing highs and lows to be warmer.
1115 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep dry and seasonable weather going for the balance of the weekend. High pressure returns in mid-week and we go back to a very dry pattern. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 20s-mid 30s, with some of our normally colder spots perhaps down in the low-mid 20s. We should see filtered sunshine through high level cloudiness, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s over the higher terrain, to the lower 60s across much of the Susquehanna Valley.
115 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Near zonal flow will remain in place through mid week as a deep upper trough digs into the Pac NW.
(Today and tonight) Upper level flow has become more zonal in the wake of the departing upper low, resulting in a period of continuing quiet weather. Light winds will continue into tonight, with persisting high cloudiness keeping overnight temperatures a tad warmer than last night with lows mainly in the mid 40s.
324 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (Issued 319 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022) Today, Tonight and Monday: Mid level clouds associated with an upper low approaching from the south are mitigating some fog but there is some patchy fog in far southeast and eastern Wisconsin.
1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Building high pressure and nearly zonal flow aloft keeps things pleasant and quiet in the short term, as one mid-level trough swings out of East Texas and another eventually develops across West Texas.
(Today through Monday) Low pressure over the Missouri Valley will weaken while moving into the great lakes, as low pressure over the high pressure builds into the Southeastern United States.
The flow will become more zonal by Monday morning as a trough begins to approach the Pacific Northwest, finally becoming southwesterly Monday afternoon.
High pressure at the surface remains weak but will still bring light winds with some high cirrus in the skies today. The trend for this period continues to be generally for warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
A trough and cold front are coming, with maybe a few hours earlier timing than yesterday. This is really just a symptom of the uncertainty in the forecast track of the trough and how much moisture it will have.
There is also a low pressure system over AR with a frontal boundary extending SEWD into MS. The low is expected to push NNE today across SE MO, and across IL tonight to MI on Monday.