Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The southwest Kansas region was in a northwest flow pattern aloft with a ridge axis centered across the Four Corners region and a mean trough axis across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Any convection which does develop could become marginally severe despite rather meager surface moisture (dewpoints along the front mainly in the lower 50s). The southeasterly low level flow will allow better moisture to advect back into the region than what we have today, although we will lose the low level convergence. There is an indication by the various convective allowing models that a small MCS will evolve out of the Colorado convection, which would make sense given the low level moist trajectories and the northwest flow pattern.
218 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes today bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
258 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 A wave rotating around the base of a H5 trof centered over eastern Canada entered the area today. Cooler and dry air moving into the area with this wave is the main forecast concern in the short term. On Tuesday, temperatures will reach into the low to mid 70s.
The upper ridge axis remains parked over the Northern and Canadian Rockies this afternoon, resulting in a dry northwest flow aloft over most of Montana, including Northeast Montana. The large long-wave trough over eastern Canada and CONUS, which had an influence on the resulting near normal temperatures today by having nudged the cool boundary up against the Front Range, will begin to move east. The main effect from this trough movement will be to allow the western ridge to push to cool boundary farther east through NEMONT.
Mostly clear tonight, with overnight lows a few degrees warmer than they were this morning. Afternoon highs on Tuesday a few degrees warmer than today as well, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. (Tuesday night through Monday) Dry with a gradual warming trend this week as West Central Texas sits under an upper ridge. Highs will rise into the lower 90s.
240 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front remains over the Upstate of South Carolina with Tropical Storm Colin moving northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will cross the area late tonight into Tuesday morning with TS Colin accelerating away from the area Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend. A cold front pushes through the forecast area Tuesday evening but with limited moisture available precipitation is not expected.
207 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Reinforcing cold fronts through mid week.
A cold front moving through the area around 15z Tuesday will increase winds out of the northwest at around 10 knots with VFR conditions expected through the end of he forecast time period.
Highs in the low to mid 80s with breezy WSW winds 10-20 mph and gusts 25-35 MPH and turning WNW during the afternoon. A cold front over southeast WI into nw parts of IL/MO to track southeast across central IL during the afternoon and exit southeast IL early this evening by 00Z/7 pm. While this feature will remain north of central Illinois, it will push a weak cold front into the area later today. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. Behind the boundary, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive for the middle of the week.
Wave heights will be low but widely sct showers will remain possible given the proximity of the pesky upper level low that has lingered over south TX. High pressure settling over the upper/middle Mississippi River valley will allow for the return of SEly winds starting around mid week on into the end of the week.
The strong wind field aloft and negative buoyancy potential keeps damaging wind as the main concern while low freezing level also poses some large hail threat for the strongest storms. That will leave considerable cloudiness within the larger scale upper level trough over the Great Lakes. Moisture within the trough axis will be accompanied by the next leg of cold advection and both will supply weak instability once daytime heating gets underway during Tuesday. Expect scattered coverage and weaker showers in this set up until the trough axis passes around mid afternoon.
The only local impact will be an increase in wave heights especially over the outer coastal waters as swells emanate from the cyclone's center. Highs should reach into the low to possibly mid 90s during the latter half of the week.
206 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front remains over the Upstate of South Carolina with Tropical Storm Colin moving northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will cross the area late tonight into Tuesday morning with TS Colin accelerating away from the area Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend.
Temperatures as of 3 pm were running 2-6 degrees cooler for those areas. The weakening closed low remains to our east over the Great Basin while broad ridging is just offshore to our west. The low could still trigger some showers and thunderstorms during late afternoon/early evening hours with lingering instability over the Coastal range, Shasta county mountains, and northern Sierra Nevada/Lassen Peak. The broad ridge will track eastward across NorCal overnight tonight into Tuesday as a trough approaches the West Coast.
Above average temperatures will persist through Tuesday, with breezy and cooler conditions for the second half of the week as low pressure moves into the west. We've had some really strong warming aloft since yesterday, which has capped most convection south of I-80, evident with flat cumulus development over the ridges around the Tahoe and far western NV.
105 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 A band of positive vorticity advection will swing across the area today in conjunction with the upper low centered over Hudson Bay. Lower confidence late in the weekend for precipitation chances as a backdoor cold front lies near the region.
Some cells will be capable of exhibiting rotation as winds in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere have been increasing over the past several hours. The latest GFS shows the high moisture band lingering into late week especially across the south portion of the peninsula.
Cooler weather is forecast through the middle of the week.
310 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Scattered showers continue to develop north of Highway 59 this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front pushing southeast across northern Kansas.
Dewpoints in the lower 60s are being observed north of the front, while very muggy 70s dewpoints remain for much of the state. Meanwhile, the surface front will finally begin to push southward again as the upper trough deepens over the eastern Conus.
1154 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Strong upper ridging will remain across the wrn CONUS through the short term. Slightly cooler air is expected across the area today as a backdoor cold front pushes into the wrn SD plains. This will bring warmer temps with highs reaching the 80s across most area. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible across the Black Hills Tues afternoon as soundings show a weak cap across the higher terrain and CAPE reaching around 1400 J/kg.
A strong ridge of high pressure will prevail and bring mainly dry weather and much warmer than average temperatures to the central California interior through mid week. More seasonable temperatures are expected by the end of the week as a trough moves into the region.
201 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes today bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
On the Sunday high pressure will slowly pull east allowing for southerly flow and humid conditions to return to the area.
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. An upper trough over the area will weaken on Sunday. Upper level forcing should be weaker with short wave troughs mainly north of the area as upper level trough lifts north. The pattern indicates less thunderstorm coverage but with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
201 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. An upper trough over the area will weaken on Sunday. A mid-level trough will also be in the area. Maximum temperatures will likely be lower compared to previous days because of deeper moisture in the area but we still followed the higher guidance because of the recent bias. Upper level forcing should be weaker with short wave troughs mainly north of the area as upper level trough lifts north. The pattern indicates less thunderstorm coverage but with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
436 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front will stall across the Downeast region this evening and return north in the form of a warm front Sunday.
A very moist airmass remains in place across the forecast area in between a pair of upper level high pressure ridges located over the Desert Southwest and the Western Atlantic Ocean/FL Peninsula. /issued 449 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/ Looking at the large scale weather picture aloft, the central Gulf coast is positioned within a weakness between two high pressure ridges. 1 inches today), high level trof/shear zone in place from the Mid- South to across Louisiana, daytime heating and resultant instability. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s interior to mid to upper 70s beaches.
653 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A weak cold front stretches east-west across the state. The front will move off the coast Sunday with a ridge of high pressure over the state bringing a mostly sunny day.
Bermuda ridge axis across the middle of the region will lift northward to southeast Georgia on Sunday, providing a light southeasterly steering flow. Near normal to slightly above normal high temperatures are expected, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The influence of the col should lessen Sunday as the upper trough to the north lifts out and ridging builds in, but not quite strong enough to suppress convection that develops on lake and gulf breeze boundaries. Bermuda ridging in the lower levels will become overtopped by strong continental ridging aloft to begin lowering rain chances by middle of the week and bring temperatures above normal due to increased subsidence aloft.
548 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible through the early evening hours, particularly across parts of central MO due to sfc convergence between the easterly winds on the periphery of the Great Lakes high pressure center and southerly winds farther to the west. The LLJ begins veering towards daybreak, and the shifting focus of the moisture convergence along a developing warm front may also support convection farther south into northern MO and west central IL during the morning until the warm front has lifted to the northeast. Expect afternoon highs on Sunday to be around 10 degrees warmer than they were on Saturday due to a warmer air mass and favorable southwest surface winds.
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region this afternoon and through most of the evening as an upper-level trough swings through the area. In wake of the passage of the trough. a high pressure ridge will begin to quickly build in late tonight into Sunday. with highs peaking in the lower 90s in most locations.
Convection coming off our western mountains continues to struggle to move over the plains per the stabilizing influence of the cooler north sfc winds. Cannot rule out a few mainly diurnal showers/storms in our west and south per upslope flow and influence from weak upper trof to our north, but heights will be rising so Sunday should be a mostly benign weather day.
Look for the front/moisture to continue to slip southward tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Upper-level low pressure system remains nearly stationary over southeast corner of BC and far northern ID. The low is expected to drift only slightly eastward today, keeping clouds/showers/isolated thunder over most of the forecast area, though southwest MT will see less cloud cover and precip than central/Hiline areas.
303 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2016 A weakening cold front will remain in the area through tonight.
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Cold front dissolves over the area tonight. High pressure overnight tonight into Sunday night.
As the low continues to approach overnight (yet weakens), moisture will increase, especially along the coast. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across the area. /issued 429 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico extending into Texas this morning will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA today before a weak 500mb low/inverted trough across the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon moves westward towards the lower TX coast tonight and moves inland across northeast MX and deep south TX Sunday. Temperatures will continue to be hot today and with higher dewpoints across the lower TX coast.
Temperatures tonight will be near average, with lows in the low- mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
332 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 An upper level disturbance over the area will shift southeast of the area this evening allowing high pressure to build over the region for Sunday.
This, in turn, will keep temperatures quite elevated, with most locales only falling to the lower 70s Sunday morning. Strong upper high begins to build strongly into the plains, with 500 mb heights rising sharply from 590 dm Saturday, to 594 dm Sunday afternoon. Lack of downslope, the upper high organizing east of SW KS near the Ozarks, and most importantly, lush vegetation and standing water from recent rainfall. Highs will be around 100 near Dodge City and south and slightly cooler north in the mid to upper 90s. After Sunday, upper level ridging and warming build deeply into the Plains with dry conditions and highs in the upper 90s to around 100 each day.
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front moving south across the area will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area through tonight.
340 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible through the early evening hours, particularly across parts of central MO due to sfc convergence between the easterly winds on the periphery of the Great Lakes high pressure center and southerly winds farther to the west. The LLJ begins veering towards daybreak, and the shifting focus of the moisture convergence along a developing warm front may also support convection farther south into northern MO and west central IL during the morning until the warm front has lifted to the northeast. Expect afternoon highs on Sunday to be around 10 degrees warmer than they were on Saturday due to a warmer air mass and favorable southwest surface winds.
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 An upper level disturbance over the area will shift southeast of the area this evening allowing high pressure to build over the region for Sunday.
These probabilities and areas can be refined, but models in very good agreement An upper level ridge will build into the Northland by the middle of the week, leading to a very warm and muggy period for the middle and latter half of the week. This ridge will keep the northland very warm to hot with increasing southwest flow.
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A weak cold front will slide southeast across the state late today and early tonight. mainly late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms within the more significant and persistent breaks in the high cloud deck. A ribbon of partial clearing in the high clouds extended from the Northern Laurels. A few locations will see some minor gusts into the low-mid teens this afternoon. This will make for cooler temperatures tonight, ranging from around 50F across the NW mtns. More sunshine expected Sunday for a warmer day but with comfortable humidity levels. POPs will be near zero in all areas under an area of high pressure.
upper level ridging will build over the region resulting in large scale forcing for subsidence. Upper level ridging will increase for Sun. with high pressure building aloft over the region.
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Energy from a Northern Intermountain region upper trough will weaken tonight through Sunday, with some of it being absorbed by an upper trough swinging southeast through Manitoba into the Great Lakes. A lee trough will strengthen some through this evening.
Regional visible satellite shows an upper level low pressure system along the Idaho and British Columbia border. This low is anchoring a broad trough that encompasses much of the Pacific Northwest. This will cause temperatures tonight to be slightly warmer than they were last night across these areas. The anchor low is expected to move off along the US/Canada border into the Plains tomorrow, and some energy will down into the western part of the long wave trough. This will cause the entire trough to retrograde slightly westward with its axis moving offshore and creating southwest flow aloft for southern Oregon and northern California.
Showers and thunderstorms are present in northwest Montana this afternoon with a low pressure system overhead.
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 High pressure will provide another day of seasonably cool and less humid conditions. except a bit cooler near Lake Michigan.
Otherwise cloud cover ranges from FEW to BKN allowing for temps to rise into the low/mid 80s as of 15Z. The cold front is still back in southern IL and MO but the upper- level short wave will be enough to trigger off scattered showers and thunderstorms today. JMS For 18Z TAFs: Convection continues to gradually increase over the area this Sat afternoon, along a pre-frontal trough located from ern TN wwd into nrn AL/MS. This sfc boundary was in advance of the main cold front pretty much now stalled across the OH Valley states into the Midwest region. This leaves the weak pre-frontal trough as the only real focus mech for any additional shra/tsra later tonight, with lingering rain chances sct at best.
430 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. An upper trough over the area will weaken on Sunday. A mid-level trough will also be in the area. Maximum temperatures will likely be lower compared to previous days because of deeper moisture in the area but we still followed the higher guidance because of the recent bias. Upper level forcing should be weaker with short wave troughs mainly north of the area as upper level trough lifts north. The pattern indicates less thunderstorm coverage but with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
2") are forecast to move into SE Tx during the day tomorrow once we get on the backside of the inverted mid trof seen on WV imagery stretched from La to northern Mexico coastline.
621 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A weak cold front will stall over the region tonight and will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
449 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Persistent cloud cover has been keeping convective inhibition on the high side this afternoon across the plains. Conditions overall should improve with sunset and as a cold front slides south across the forecast area tonight.
Our forecast area remains within a weak flow pattern aloft this afternoon between upper level ridges of high pressure located over the Desert Southwest and over the Western Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build westward across the region through Sunday. Despite the building ridge, the advancing seabreeze along with other outflow boundaries will interact with plentiful deep layer moisture (precipitable water values 1. Hot and humid conditions otherwise prevail with highs ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s near the coast and beaches to the lower to mid 90s inland.
High pressure over the southern Rockies will gradually shift east through the weekend.
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather into Sunday.
This higher wind aloft may also present low level wind shear concerns, which will be addressed with more certainty in the next TAF package. A ridge of high pressure will build back towards the Panhandles throughout the day today.
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 An upper level disturbance over the area will shift southeast of the area this evening allowing high pressure to build over the region for Sunday.
although new convection has developed farther S and E in the higher instability air present in VC of the nearly stationary MCV which continues to spin over Winn Parish. the weak upper level shear axis present from Cntrl MS SW into Cntrl LA/SE TX may drift a tad farther SE overnight as height rises associated with the upper level ridge over the Srn Plains begins to build E into the Mid-South/Lower Ms Valley. the ern extent of the upper ridge will build E into the Tn Valley/AL. The high PW/s will limit the extent of deep mixing.
145 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring a bit of cooling and a slightly deeper marine layer this weekend.
156 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front approaches from the west tonight and dissipates across the area on Sunday.
1 inches and convective temps lower into the lower 90s. /ISSUED / Temps this morning starting out a degree or two cooler than yesterday at this time. Suspect cloud cover will thin out enough whereas readings rebound close to the highs observed yesterday.
A dry trough passing through the western states will bring stronger winds to northern Arizona today. A dry low pressure trough passing through the western states will bring stronger winds to northern Arizona.
A weak cold front will move south from Montana across the northern Bighorn basin and the eastern plains across Johnson and Natrona counties making a push into the Wind River basin over night. Sunday night THROUGH Saturday The flow aloft will shift to the southwest Sunday night as a high pressure ridge builds north along the eastern border of Wyoming and a Pacific low pressure trough deepens and begins to move inland along the West Coast. Towards the end of the week the flow will become more westerly with a Canadian trough moving southeast from Saskatchewan into the Dakotas.
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A weak cold front will stall over the region tonight and will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Cold front dissolves over the area tonight. High pressure overnight tonight into Sunday night.
Mid level troffing /H7 to H5/ pushes through the area from 15-18z so subsidence in the approaching mid level ridge should help scattered out clouds and provide a nice end to the day. An upper low over Hudson bay will keep cyclonic flow across the north and northeast through Sunday night as a weak cool front departs, with scattered showers and possibly some thunder possible as upper level vortices move across the northeast in the NW flow pattern.
Convection mostly duirnal although a few cells maintained nocturnally last night and early mrng despite the low wind shears. although new convection has developed farther S and E in the higher instability air present in VC of the nearly stationary MCV which continues to spin over Winn Parish. the weak upper level shear axis present from Cntrl MS SW into Cntrl LA/SE TX may drift a tad farther SE overnight as height rises associated with the upper level ridge over the Srn Plains begins to build E into the Mid-South/Lower Ms Valley. the ern extent of the upper ridge will build E into the Tn Valley/AL. The high PW/s will limit the extent of deep mixing.
Expect high temperatures near or slightly cooler than today for Sunday as the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico begins to drift northward and provide a slightly more easterly wind.