Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In fact, another weak impulse is expected to drop into this trof on Sunday.
VFR conditions with light southeast winds will remain across all terminals for at least the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates the region.
The stratus will continue into the evening and overnight as the low level moisture advection is anticipated to continue. For Sunday, a warm front will begin to push into the region from the south/southwest. Temperatures will be warmest across portions of western Nebraska on Sunday as highs climb into the upper 80s, with a few locations reaching the lower 90s. Across north central Nebraska, temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s. The aforementioned surface warm front will begin to lift northeast, allowing warmer air to surge north into central and north central Nebraska. The NAM12 is showing H85 temperatures in the lower 30C for portions of our western WFO, which equate to high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
1121 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east across upstate New York today.
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 20Z upper level analysis has large ridge over the western CONUS with mid and high level clouds topping the ridge across Montana and the Dakotas. At the surface, high pressure resides across Minnesota with weak lee trof just east of the Rockies. A warming trend will continue this holiday weekend as the building ridge to the west slowly shifts east over the Rockies.
At the surface, the region will remain situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Sunday looks to be dry as weak high pressure settles in over the region, and by afternoon, should see more clearing and enough sun to allow temperatures to rise back to near normal levels. Sunday night will see low pressure approach from the west, with the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms to develop during the late overnight hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 70s east to the lower 80s west.
515 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 20Z upper level analysis has large ridge over the western CONUS with mid and high level clouds topping the ridge across Montana and the Dakotas. At the surface, high pressure resides across Minnesota with weak lee trof just east of the Rockies. A warming trend will continue this holiday weekend as the building ridge to the west slowly shifts east over the Rockies.
The infrared satellite view, as well as the low/mid water vapor channels depicted an area of subsidence extending from west of the Mississippi Delta to across this region to the Mid Atlantic. High pressure will build into the area a bit more for Sunday, and with that, a tad more moisture is expected across the area. No rain is expected through this time, with daytime highs topping out in the lower 90s.
High pressure over Central California will keep the forecast area warm for the next few days through Labor Day.
534 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 H5 ridge continues to build across the west the next 24 hours, keeping Wyoming under strong subsidence.
High pressure will remain centered over the southern portion of the forecast area on Sunday. Little change indicated for Labor Day as high pressure remains situated over the southern half of the forecast area.
while the warmer temps over the CWA should remain south of the frontal boundary. Dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees overnight combined with these temps and light winds will allow for near saturation within the lowest levels.
533 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Dry and quite warm conditions expected over the CWA the next couple days as an upper high centered in the 4 corners area remains in place and even strengthens a bit into this area.
748 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary remains south of the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to drift to the northeast across upstate New York this afternoon and tonight.
Skies will remain cloudy, as low temperatures drop into the lower to middle 60s. The warm front positioned south of central Illinois is making very slow progress back to the north, which was previously advertised in the high res guidance. After midnight tonight, an upper level trough will progress into Illinois, bringing a wave of positive vorticity advection, and forcing for precip.
/28/ Tonight through Sunday: High pressure will maintain a subsident/dry airmass over much of the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of the weekend.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON LABOR DAY WITH A EVENING UPDATE: Sent an update this evening, mainly to fine tune some wind and sky cover forecast data based on the latest and greatest model agreement and observations.
334 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 H5 ridge continues to build across the west the next 24 hours, keeping Wyoming under strong subsidence.
651 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend as easterly flow begins increasing moisture across the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 91 68 92 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 88 62 87 / 10 0 0 10.
A weak upper level trough was moving east across central KS into eastern KS early this afternoon. An upper level ridge across the southwestern US will expand east into the southern high Plains. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 80s.
Temps will be slightly warmer tonight with most places near 70.
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary remains south of the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to drift to the northeast across upstate New York this afternoon and tonight.
1024 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary to our south will lift northward as a warm front on Sunday.
732 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary remains south of the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to drift to the northeast across upstate New York this afternoon and tonight.
535 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary remains south of the region as high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to drift to the northeast across upstate New York this afternoon and tonight.
404 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Easterly wave along 86 degrees west, with high pressure from the Great Lakes to east Texas. Plenty of sunshine across most of the CWA today with high temperatures mainly in the lower 90s.
Dry and quite warm conditions expected over the CWA the next couple days as an upper high centered in the 4 corners area remains in place and even strengthens a bit into this area.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/ Upper level high pressure continues to be centered west of us out near the Four Corners.
In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the western CONUS with a low amplitude trough over the east. In the lower levels, moist east to northeast flow will remain in place.
257 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 A weak frontal boundary to our south will lift northward as a warm front on Sunday.
It still looks like there should be some stratus and patchy fog over the northeast corner and as far west as Weld county, but it doesn't look likely to wrap back into Denver as the low level winds look too easterly to strongly force the Denver cyclone circulation. Only minor adjustments at this time to cloud cover and slightly cooler lows in the mountain valleys tonight. We can't rule out a couple moving off the higher terrain through the late afternoon/early evening hours with convective temps being reached, but overall the return to dry and warmer weather is well underway. For Sunday, the ridge continues to build in our direction with further warming.
253 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2019 High pressure remains firmly in place over the Four Corner region for the next several days.
1115 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 H5 ridge continues to build across the west the next 24 hours, keeping Wyoming under strong subsidence.
210 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Early this morning, a weak boundary was along the Ohio, with an inverted trof and weak low from SEMO up into central IL. Given the ESE track of the s/wv and the presence of the inverted trof, the suggestion is for at least slight chances of thunderstorms today, best chances over the EVV Tri-State area, least toward the AR/TN state lines.
1120 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 20Z upper level analysis has large ridge over the western CONUS with mid and high level clouds topping the ridge across Montana and the Dakotas. At the surface, high pressure resides across Minnesota with weak lee trof just east of the Rockies. A warming trend will continue this holiday weekend as the building ridge to the west slowly shifts east over the Rockies.
Strengthening upper ridge has resulted in little mid level flow, as evident with slowly is moving eastward convection this morning. Building upper ridge/warmer mid level temps will preclude convection over the next few days. Warmer surface temperatures can be expected as well.
347 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Upper level trof continues to move east and support showers with a few thunderstorms early this morning. Expect showers to gradually end from west to east this morning, then linger across eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA as the trailing trof interacts with the surface front. Have therefore trended cooler for temps today.
1146 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 A weak frontal boundary to our south will lift northward as a warm front on Sunday.
The upper trough will slide northeastward today, but looks to at least provide enough lift for some partly cloudy skies and even a passing shower.
322 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Fairly quiet but warmer weather today than yesterday, and even moreso tomorrow. Otherwise, southerly flow develops today with temps into the lower 80s, and dewpoints back into the upper 60s to near 70, making it feel a little more sticky.
The trough will swing through and winds shift by mid morning which should clear out the stratus and fog. Upslope flow will once again be present over the area by this evening as the deeper upper level low and associated lee trough develop and push into the area. Showers and thunderstorms may develop later this evening across western North Dakota as a warm front advances northeastward.
346 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Complex of thunderstorms continues to roll across the Rolling Plains and western South Plains which the high-resolution/short- term models have been struggling with.
Otherwise, sunny skies and warmer temperatures will prevail today with readings warming into the lower 90s for most areas.
Another quiet TAF period with high pressure in control.
It will be another quiet short term with high pressure continuing to dominate area weather. With the higher dew points and the warming trend of the air mass. lows will be a degree to two warmer tonight compared previous nights.
247 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with a weak boundary from southeast Wisconsin into eastern Missouri.
1155 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2019 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper high to linger over the Four Corners region next 24 hrs.
205 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend as easterly flow begins increasing moisture across the area.
This front will keep the northern areas 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than the southern areas. The front will lift northeast late tonight as a warm front.
Upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west.
349 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Upper level ridging will develop across the central and southern plains over the next several days.
220 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 As broad upper ridge continues to dominate western states, area remains in fairly quiet northwest flow with subtle features moving through.
/19/ Temps will be slightly warmer tonight with most places near 70.
Today/tonight, upper/thermal ridge amplifies modestly.
342 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a crossing low pressure trough. Another crossing trough will maintain scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Labor Day.
212 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge building over the Rockies, with a weak trough swinging into the eastern Mississippi Valley and of course, Hurricane Dorian spinning just east of the northern Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure over southeast Canada/northeastern US was keeping a light northeasterly flow over much of the region. The upper level trough will move eastward and through the Ohio and TN Valleys today. Most of the upper forcing associated with this trough will remain well north of the area. Combine this with a lack of any surface based lift and the lack of substantial moisture, this trough will move through with little to no impact to the sensible weather pattern over the area. The upper trough will move east of the area tonight, as the ridge builds eastward from the west.
High pressure currently over the Four Corners region will migrate east this week, but remaining north of our CWA, heights (and subsidence) will not increase leaving temperatures flat. In addition, mid level lapse rates will be dropping from about 7C/km to 5C/km making afternoon convection very difficult, even in the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. The next chance for cooler weather and perhaps a decent chance for rain may not occur until next Sunday. Models are showing a Pac NW trough breaking the high down and allowing a front to drop south into West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
906 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather inland this morning, with higher humidity in the lower deserts.
155 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 2019 High pressure over Central California will keep the forecast area warm through Labor Day.
/Today through Labor Day/ The trend going forward into the month of September indicates a hot start with meager rain chances as the upper level ridge out to our west reasserts itself across much of the southern U. In addition, our extreme SE zones may also be skirted by afternoon convection shifting westward along an inverted trough.
Coverage is expected to be isolated at best along the boundary given the low instability and will diminish this evening. NW MN should see clouds persist and SE ND has the best chance of seeing the warmer temps.
Mostly clear skies will also occur, as a result of a ridge axis (subsidence) over the Northern Rockies.
/Today through Labor Day/ The trend going forward into the month of September indicates a hot start with meager rain chances as the upper level ridge out to our west reasserts itself across much of the southern U. In addition, our extreme SE zones may also be skirted by afternoon convection shifting westward along an inverted trough. Overnight lows will generally range from the lower to mid 70s with mostly clear skies and light winds.
The trough will swing through and winds shift by mid morning which should clear out the stratus and fog. Upslope flow will once again be present over the area by this evening as the deeper upper level low and associated lee trough develop and push into the area. Showers and thunderstorms may develop later this evening across western North Dakota as a warm front advances northeastward. A warm front should stretch from northern North Dakota southeastward to northern Wisconsin.
high pressure will remain in control and continue to provide mostly clear skies and VFR conditions.
329 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Overview: Modest NW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area, on the NE-ENE periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners. Sun-Sun night: With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect conditions similar to (albeit several degrees warmer than) today.
541 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a crossing low pressure trough. Another crossing trough will maintain scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Labor Day.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with a weak boundary from southeast Wisconsin into eastern Missouri.
524 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 A warm front will lift northeast into the region today and tonight.
A warm front will lift north to about the NE/SD line eastward into northern Iowa by evening, then stall until it resumes its northward trek Monday. Continued the higher end PoP mainly along and north of the I-94 corridor with the trough/frontal passage.
Thus the morning update will increase high temps, mainly in northern sections where current obs are 3-5 degrees warmer than forecast at 10 am.
546 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 As broad upper ridge continues to dominate western states, area remains in fairly quiet northwest flow with subtle features moving through.
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 A warm front will lift northeast into the region today and tonight.
The weather pattern will change very little the next several days high pressure remains centered to our east with a weak trough remaining offshore.
As the distance between the broad tropical wave and the hurricane shortens, a ridge will be produced and will become and extention of the ridge axis back toward the western CONUS.
415 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 As the upper level ridge over the Four Corners region shifts slightly northwest, an area of drier air will move onshore along the Texas coast today. The highest rain chances will be for the offshore waters (40-50%) but isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the Coastal Bend on Monday.
511 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2019 High pressure remains firmly in place over the Four Corner region for the next several days.
Low clouds and patchy fog are expected mainly north and east of Fort Morgan this morning with the lowest visibilities near Holyoke. Mixing will quickly erode the low clouds and fog an hour or two after sunrise this morning. During the day on Sunday, there will be west to northwest mid to upper level flow on the northeast side of a strong ridge centered over the Four Corners. The dominant ridge of high pressure will stubbornly hold its grip on Colorado for the regional weather for much the upcoming week. Monday looks to be the hottest and driest day of the week with the center of the high right smack of Colorado.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region for the rest of this Labor Day Weekend. The increased cloud cover and possible rain bring "cooler", only slightly above normal high temperatures today. A broad low pressure system drifting west across the Gulf of Mexico results in a northeasterly lower level flow to drop PWs to slightly below normal for Labor Day.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON LABOR 830AM UPDATE: Forecast today was for near zero PoPs. While the rain hasn't yet hit rain gauges it is most likely a virga type due to a drier lower atmosphere matching the low QPF totals. This front will keep the northern areas 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than the southern areas. The front will lift northeast late tonight as a warm front. A cold front will move south across NE Montana on Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northeast half of the forecast area. An upper trough follows Monday Night.
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Fairly quiet but warmer weather today than yesterday, and even moreso tomorrow. Otherwise, southerly flow develops today with temps into the lower 80s, and dewpoints back into the upper 60s to near 70, making it feel a little more sticky. High temps are forecast to reach the upper 80s, with dewpoints into the lower to mid 70s.
Early this morning, a weak boundary was along the Ohio, with an inverted trof and weak low from SEMO up into central IL. Given the ESE track of the s/wv and the presence of the inverted trof, the suggestion is for at least slight chances of thunderstorms today, best chances over the EVV Tri-State area, least toward the AR/TN state lines.
It remains to be seen whether the fog will expand eastward, but if the low-level stratus persists in northeast KS the rest of the night, this area will continue to be less favored for radiational cooling. For the rest of today and Monday, the 500mb ridge will expand with the CWA under the northeast periphery. Temperatures will warm to the low to mid 80s on Sunday and upper 80s to near 90 on Monday.
941 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Low clouds were actually expanding westward this morning due to the weak low level easterly flow out of the inverted trough to the east. Deep low level moisture (up through 700 mb on the 12z DVN sounding) will delay the anticipated clearing of low clouds and result in cooler temperatures than previously expected today. 06Z surface data has high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with a weak boundary from southeast Wisconsin into eastern Missouri.
900 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a crossing low pressure trough. Another crossing trough will maintain scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Labor Day. A tight pressure gradient is expected to form across the ridges this afternoon and create breezy conditions, therefore an increase to the winds/wind gusts was made as well.
/issued 346 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019/ Complex of thunderstorms continues to roll across the Rolling Plains and western South Plains which the high-resolution/short- term models have been struggling with.
/Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019/ As the upper level ridge over the Four Corners region shifts slightly northwest, an area of drier air will move onshore along the Texas coast today. The highest rain chances will be for the offshore waters (40-50%) but isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the Coastal Bend on Monday.
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Update to Aviation Discussion for 18z TAFs Early this morning, a weak boundary was along the Ohio, with an inverted trof and weak low from SEMO up into central IL. Given the ESE track of the s/wv and the presence of the inverted trof, the suggestion is for at least slight chances of thunderstorms today, best chances over the EVV Tri-State area, least toward the AR/TN state lines.
1249 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Fairly quiet but warmer weather today than yesterday, and even moreso tomorrow. Otherwise, southerly flow develops today with temps into the lower 80s, and dewpoints back into the upper 60s to near 70, making it feel a little more sticky. High temps are forecast to reach the upper 80s, with dewpoints into the lower to mid 70s.
The ridge of high pressure still dominants the weather for today and into tonight as temperatures will be well above normal for the start of the meteorological fall. The first feature is a low amplitude trough coming out of central Canada on Monday. This trough will cause temperatures to be slightly cooler then compared to today, but should still be above seasonal normals.
1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 As broad upper ridge continues to dominate western states, area remains in fairly quiet northwest flow with subtle features moving through.
1129 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2019 High pressure remains firmly in place over the Four Corner region for the next several days.
Another warm day expected with some gusty wind noted over the higher terrain this afternoon. A trough moving to the north of area on Monday may bring slightly cooler temperatures, though models have trended further north with this system, reducing its impact on the area.
This is mainly due to the tropical wave and broad area of low pressure in the central Gulf moving towards Mexico the next couple of days. This area of low pressure is not expected to become tropical and really the only impacts will be along the coast with slightly higher seas, tides and rip currents. No major changes with this portion of the forecast as the strong upper ridge (building in from the west) remains a big factor for SE TX. This system along with the location of the upper ridge to produce a light east and northeast flow over the CWA through late Tues.