Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Building high pressure will bring dry wx with the onset of a warming trend today. High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today but the flow aloft will continue to be northerly keeping us on the cold side. Heights will continue to rise as high pressure continues to build over the forecast area.
Mid level clouds are beginning to spread over portions of NE OK at this time in response to an incoming short wave trough moving through the region.
Across mountain areas where temperatures will be below freezing, total accumulations are expected to be between 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts above 4000 feet. Some of the higher elevations of the plateau may have temperatures below freezing and have some minor travel concerns. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 41 26 45 26 / 60 70 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 40 23 41 25 / 40 70 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 40 23 42 25 / 20 60 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 38 20 40 22 / 10 50 20 0 0 NC.
1246 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Outside of isolated flurries on Thursday, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend.
Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible but not likely along the eastern slopes of the mountains, but any ice accumulations will be very small as temperatures hover around the freezing mark. A strong cold front will then pass through west Texas and southeastern New Mexico Thursday, with temperatures remaining nearly steady throughout the day.
Furthermore, any accumulation will be confined to mainly the higher elevations of the southern and central Plateau.
1258 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Low pressure will develop off the Southeast Coast Thursday. The low will shift farther off the coast Thursday night.
331 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 A broad area of mean layer ridging persists across the Western Caribbean. Water vapor imagery highlights the large area of dry and sinking air associated with the ridge. Temperatures are in the mid 80s and dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s. A 1045 mb polar high pressure system over the northern Plains will spill southeast tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, an antecedent and denigrating ridge axis over south Florida will waft to the south towards the Keys.
Clear skies and cold temperatures this morning as the area sits under a blocking high.
A cold front will shift the south winds to the north with gusty winds of 20 to 25 knots through the early morning hours. As this trough moves east to southeast into Colorado today, the H2 jet will increase to around 135 kts over the combined Panhandles by 6 AM Thursday. Even before the cold front moves through PoPs will increase after sunset from the northwest to southeast by midnight. Besides lift from collision of the cold front with warmer moist air, there will also be a chance for some frontogenesis to aid in forcing for ascent, primarily over the northwest Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle.
1108 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2020 Quiet weather continues for much of the Pacific NW as a pronounced ridge and dry air passes over the region.
247 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure will promote quiet conditions for the next several days.
1130 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough extending from southern Manitoba westward to northern California. Embedded within this trough is a stronger area of vorticity moving into Wyoming. It's this portion of the trough that will drive our weather in the near term.
318 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure will be over the Midwest through Thursday. We will see a tighter gradient across the area as this low passes by well to the south. Upper trough axis, oriented parallel to the Ohio River, will cross the region Thursday night.
126 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area Thursday.
1045 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 A broad area of mean layer ridging persists across the Western Caribbean. Water vapor imagery highlights the large area of dry and sinking air associated with the ridge. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s. A ridge of high pressure over North Florida will shift southward through Central Florida this afternoon, then weaken and dissipate over South Florida and the Keys Thursday.
247 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Ridging sprawled across the Florida Peninsula will lead to another day of very humid and above average temperatures this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s.
154 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 The main midlevel trough axis is beginning to work over the area from the north. The air mass behind this trough will filter into portions of southern Colorado therefore the lows tonight should be cooler by about 10 degrees. A transitory ridge will begin to build into the area tomorrow allowing warm advection to modify the post trough air mass.
149 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Upper air analysis depicts trough axis oriented NE to SW, stretching across Ontario back into the Northern Rockies.
A cold high pressure has settled over North Dakota this morning, which has produced light winds and clear skies, with nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. This ridge of high pressure remains over the area today and tonight, which should keep our skies mostly clear and winds generally light.
Very light precipitation or drizzle/freezing drizzle may accompany the low CIGS but confidence in timing is low this far out. Light drizzle potential spreads north tonight, with light freezing drizzle possible late tonight and Thursday morning over mainly the western half of the forecast area.
200 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 The main story in the short term is the continued snowfall with the upper trough moving into the area. With the ample sunshine, high temperatures were nudged up slightly, but are still only expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
Clouds will quickly begin to increase this evening as upper level impulse lifts into the region from the southwest and as elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest.
134 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 An upper level trof approaches the area tonight, and swings across the region tmrw. Light overrunning moisture is seen advecting this direction, ahead of the trof. However, the moisture is effectively pinched off by the trof's passage, and as such, pcpn chances should refrain/stay mainly south of the FA. In the wake of this trof's passage, Arctic high pressure settles down across the Mississippi River Valley, and offers our coldest chill of air this forecast package.
Winds will increase overnight in the west, though temperatures will be relatively warmer along with it, so no change is needed to the Wind Chill Advisory. High pressure located along the Missouri River northwest of Bismarck at 20z will move southeast tonight with winds turning more southwest at 5 to 10 mph over E ND and far NW MN late tonight into Thu AM. Sunny on Thursday as well, and milder as warmer 850-925 mb airmass spreads southeast from western Canada with this warm advection continuing into Thu night.
A weak frontal trough wl remain stationary south of the Cape. ISOLD to SCT showers/sprinkles will be forecast over the next 24 hours due to coastal troughing/convergence, ample moisture and approaching stronger weather system.
423 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Upper air analysis depicts trough axis oriented NE to SW, stretching across Ontario back into the Northern Rockies.
344 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A 1045+ mb high pressure remains overhead, which will lead to prime radiational cooling conditions overnight. Winds will be light as the center of the high pressure moves overhead, but I believe winds will still remain around 5-7mph. The region remains under the influence under a broad area of high pressure through the weekend, with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected as winds back to a southerly flow during Thursday afternoon. A warming trend is expected into the weekend as ridging aloft builds over the central US, and southwesterly flow at the surface develops as a broad area of high pressure gradual slides southeast of the area.
Cold arctic high pressure at the surface will build in behind this band of snow and bring very cold lows to many locations on Thursday morning. High pressure will drift southeast on Thursday with southerly flow developing behind.
241 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 With an upper level ridge residing over the region, expect a slow warming trend over the next few days, along with dry conditions.
512 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A strong area of high pressure over the upper Midwest will generate rapid radiational cooling overnight with clear skies and light winds. As a ridge approaches and the area of high pressure slowly slides south on Thursday, skies will remain mostly clear, and increasing winds slowly shifting from northwestern to southwesterly. These southwesterly winds will begin advecting warmer temperatures into the region, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper teens.
Increasing isentropic ascent and a reinforcing cold front moving southward through the Central and Southern Plains will result in showers and rain becoming more widespread after midnight through Thursday morning.
This trough will continue to move eastward, bringing snow chances to the CWA tonight into early Thursday morning. The onset of snow will depend on how quickly the low-levels saturate. Drier and colder air will be in place on Thursday following the passage of the trough with highs only reaching the low 30s.
By Thursday morning, reinforcing high pressure will push a secondary/deeper front through the area weakening the overrunning pattern and bringing chances for isolated to scattered showers. This surge in high pressure will lead to breezy/windy conditions to develop across the area Thursday morning along with strong CAA.
456 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 The main midlevel trough axis is beginning to work over the area from the north. The air mass behind this trough will filter into portions of southern Colorado therefore the lows tonight should be cooler by about 10 degrees. A transitory ridge will begin to build into the area tomorrow allowing warm advection to modify the post trough air mass.
Upper level ridge over Western Washington with system offshore splitting tonight. Ridge shifting east and weakening Thursday.
A cold front will also accompany this system, with winds picking up out of the NE on Thursday. Clouds will quickly begin to increase this evening as upper level impulse lifts into the region from the southwest and as elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest.
Locally, our lower levels are even drier as of 19z with dewpoints in the teens to low 20s and surface RH values from the low 30s to low 40s.
A cold front is stalled just off the coast of SETX and into SELA this evening. Increasing isentropic ascent and a reinforcing cold front moving southward through the Central and Southern Plains will result in showers and rain becoming more widespread after midnight through Thursday morning.
318 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 The dry upper level trough moving south through the northern Rockies will bring colder air and limited cloud cover to the area today. Dry and stable conditions will persist through the end of the week as high pressure aloft expands east across the Great Basin.
/15/ Thursday night through next Wednesday: By Thursday night, the upper trough will be pushing the disturbance off to the east and precip should be exiting the CWA early in the evening.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Weakly forced area of snow ongoing over parts of central Iowa mainly between the Highway 20 and Interstate 80 corridor. This area of light snow will drift south into this evening as Arctic high pressure settles south into the state. Arctic high pressure will settle into Iowa overnight.
623 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area Thursday.
Winds will shift to southwesterly and increase Thursday afternoon as the next cold front approaches from the northwest.
With an upper level ridge residing over the region, expect a slow warming trend over the next few days, along with dry conditions.
Dry air in the lower atmosphere will continue to prohibit the eastern progression of this activity, with virga initially occurring over eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
/issued 314 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/ Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s and probably won't warm more than another degree or two this afternoon resulting in afternoon highs in the low to middle 50s. Dew points are currently in the low 30s across most of the area with no source of moisture upstream.
An upper level trof approaches the area tonight, and swings across the region tmrw. Light overrunning moisture is seen advecting this direction, ahead of the trof. However, the moisture is effectively pinched off by the trof's passage, and as such, pcpn chances should refrain/stay mainly south of the FA. In the wake of this trof's passage, Arctic high pressure settles down across the Mississippi River Valley, and offers our coldest chill of air this forecast package.
Arctic high pressure will track from the nrn Great Plains to Iowa for Thu, and into the se USA for the weekend. As the high shifts south of WI, breezy swly winds and warm advection is expected. Temps should not be as cold Thursday night as the high slips south and we switch to a southwest component and nudge the influence of the low level thermal trough to our east.
Probably the main addition / change was to introduce some patchy freezing fog in part of Northern Valley County per newest guidance, but even that was minor.
352 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A strong area of high pressure over the upper Midwest will generate rapid radiational cooling overnight with clear skies and light winds. As a ridge approaches and the area of high pressure slowly slides south on Thursday, skies will remain mostly clear, and increasing winds slowly shifting from northwestern to southwesterly. These southwesterly winds will begin advecting warmer temperatures into the region, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper teens.
314 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s and probably won't warm more than another degree or two this afternoon resulting in afternoon highs in the low to middle 50s. Dew points are currently in the low 30s across most of the area with no source of moisture upstream.
543 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 The main story in the short term is the continued snowfall with the upper trough moving into the area. With the ample sunshine, high temperatures were nudged up slightly, but are still only expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
541 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 The upper air pattern features a mid level trof settling south from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi River valleys. A surface reflection in the form of a reinforcing cold front stretches from southeastern WI through Iowa and into the Plains. Expect clouds to increase tonight with the approach of the trof and cold front, but believe measurable precipitation will be hard to come by as synoptic lift is weak and low levels remain quite dry. High temperatures tomorrow will be at or below freezing except for parts of the eastern Ozarks and southeast Missouri which may recover into the middle 30s during the afternoon.
532 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A 1045+ mb high pressure remains overhead, which will lead to prime radiational cooling conditions overnight. Winds will be light as the center of the high pressure moves overhead, but I believe winds will still remain around 5-7mph. The region remains under the influence under a broad area of high pressure through the weekend, with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected as winds back to a southerly flow during Thursday afternoon. A warming trend is expected into the weekend as ridging aloft builds over the central US, and southwesterly flow at the surface develops as a broad area of high pressure gradual slides southeast of the area.
416 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A disturbance will move across the CWA from East Texas over night tonight and into the daytime hours on Thursday along and behind a strong cold front.
753 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Outside of isolated flurries on Thursday, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend. The temperature will fall into the low 20s / upper teens by daybreak.
328 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Strong H5 ridge continues to build across the Pacific NW today, deflecting the rapid barrage of weather system into Canada. Mostly clear skies tonight will allow good radiational cooling, so lows will again fall below zero for most areas tonight, especially for the lowest elevations where the coldest air will pool. H7 temperatures will rise to -4 to -6 degrees, which will give most areas a good jump on temperatures, pushing higher elevations into the mid 20s and the Big Horn basin and Johnson County into the low 30s.
905 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area Thursday.
High pressure will be over the Midwest through Thursday. We will see a tighter gradient across the area as this low passes by well to the south. Upper trough axis, oriented parallel to the Ohio River, will cross the region Thursday night.
The low levels are rather dry but there are some upstream observations in southeast KS reporting spotty light precipitation falling from the mid level cloud deck. Glass The upper air pattern features a mid level trof settling south from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi River valleys. A surface reflection in the form of a reinforcing cold front stretches from southeastern WI through Iowa and into the Plains. Expect clouds to increase tonight with the approach of the trof and cold front, but believe measurable precipitation will be hard to come by as synoptic lift is weak and low levels remain quite dry. High temperatures tomorrow will be at or below freezing except for parts of the eastern Ozarks and southeast Missouri which may recover into the middle 30s during the afternoon.
For the moment, our CWA remains in CAA east of the high, with north winds at 5 to 15 mph, and with clearing skies, we are now seeing some near zero temperatures in the northern counties as of 2 AM. This is a few degrees warmer than forecast, and thus far, wind chills remain above forecast ranges. Skies will continue to clear today, as the high pressure moves overhead. Tonight, more of the same, with light winds, clear skies, and lows in the lower single digits north, to lower teens south.
But the humidity has come up significantly at the Buffalo mesonet in northwest Oklahoma indicating that the low levels of the atmosphere have moistened up from the precipitation falling and would not be surprised if there is some light snow across far northwest Oklahoma.
The warmer heat island definitely shows up, with the Fargo airport at -13F and several stations only a short distance away in the -20s. Winds will increase overnight in the west, though temperatures will be relatively warmer along with it, so no change is needed to the Wind Chill Advisory. High pressure located along the Missouri River northwest of Bismarck at 20z will move southeast tonight with winds turning more southwest at 5 to 10 mph over E ND and far NW MN late tonight into Thu AM. Sunny on Thursday as well, and milder as warmer 850-925 mb airmass spreads southeast from western Canada with this warm advection continuing into Thu night.
Modest northwest winds will continue over Lake Michigan tonight and Thursday, as high pressure around 30. This high will continue towards the southeast United States into the weekend.
337 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 A positively-tilted trough axis is propagating southeastward from the high plains toward the Florida peninsula as weak high pressure is eroded across the Florida peninsula. The trough is dragging a cold front with it, and this will be arriving on our doorstep late tonight. The trough axis and attendant cold front will push through quickly tonight. A colder, continental airmass originating from Canada will quickly take the place, and a northerly wind will allow the cooler air to funnel southward.
1226 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area Thursday.
Gilstad Upper level ridge building from the northwest will bring dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday night. We should see highs in the 30s to lower 40s tomorrow, with nighttime lows getting progressively warmer. Lee trof is already forming, and gradients will tighten significantly tonight courtesy of a 1040+ mb high over eastern ID and western WY.
Still a dusting possible along the OK/KS border and some of the higher terrain of NW AR, but no impacts anticipated. A cold front will also accompany this system, with winds picking up out of the NE on Thursday. Clouds will quickly begin to increase this evening as upper level impulse lifts into the region from the southwest and as elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest.
1022 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Upper air analysis depicts trough axis oriented NE to SW, stretching across Ontario back into the Northern Rockies.
Overall, a dusting of snow will be possible early this morning and mainly on grassy surfaces as road temperatures are in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees, which should prevent flash freezing despite morning lows in the mid to upper 20s. Conditions will turn dry and cold for the remainder of today as cloud cover decreases throughout the day as high pressure slowly slides over the region from our north. By tonight, the coldest air under the high pressure will become centered over the area, with lows in the mid to upper teens and wind chills in the low teens to single digits.
254 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Early this morning, areas of light snow continued to fall across portions of the CWA as the mid-level trough axis tracked southward over the area. Continued northerly winds today will usher cooler air into the region with afternoon highs only reaching into the low 30s.
Guidance continues to advertise lows dropping into the low to mid 30s right before sunrise in the morning, but those temperatures might be a little overdone. The good news is that surface temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, so no accumulations or impacts are expected. /issued 314 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/ Current temperatures are in the low to middle 50s and probably won't warm more than another degree or two this afternoon resulting in afternoon highs in the low to middle 50s. Dew points are currently in the low 30s across most of the area with no source of moisture upstream.
This dry air was associated with a strong high pressure system centered over Fargo, ND. Negative factors for accumulation include mostly or all above freezing surface air temps and warm ground. If there are locations that could over-achieve, it could be our Plateau where snow may hang on well into the afternoon and temps may hover near freezing.
257 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Strong high pressure will bring clearing skies today, but a cold air mass over the region will result in cold temperatures.
255 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 A large high pressure area over eastern South Dakota this morning extended a ridge north over northern Minnesota.
1027 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 Strong H5 ridge continues to build across the Pacific NW today, deflecting the rapid barrage of weather system into Canada. Mostly clear skies tonight will allow good radiational cooling, so lows will again fall below zero for most areas tonight, especially for the lowest elevations where the coldest air will pool. H7 temperatures will rise to -4 to -6 degrees, which will give most areas a good jump on temperatures, pushing higher elevations into the mid 20s and the Big Horn basin and Johnson County into the low 30s.