Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It is expected to bring strong for ascent and resulting snow north of the low to the western Great Lakes region today, including Minnesota and Wisconsin. High pressure will be approaching from the west. Lows will dip down to about 0 to 10 degrees, with the colder temperatures in central and north-central Minnesota closer to the high pressure.
Have omitted mention of SHRA/TSRA until the afternoon hours when heating and approach of a cold front will produce convection. The cold front will move quickly through the sites into the evening with showers and thunderstorms ending with a brief return to MVFR ceilings and possible visibility restrictions.
615 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A cold front will move across the forecast area Wednesday bringing scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Gusty south to southeasterly winds early this afternoon will relax as a strong cold front moves closer to the region. A strong north to northeast flow will develop in wake of this cold front overnight.
Farther to the north, a broken line of robust convection has developed immediately ahead of an advancing cold front. As the expected QLCS becomes more solid, the associated cold pool and the passage of an upper trough axis should allow the cold front to surge southeast across the area this evening. This should cause the intensity of the QLCS along the cold front to diminish somewhat as it progresses farther southeast. Drier air, clear skies, and much cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front. Some locations in northern McCurtain County may fall to near or just below freezing tonight/Wednesday morning.
Also updated winds elsewhere today - and added blowing dust briefly behind cold front mostly dissipating around midday.
1139 AM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018 The cold front has just about exited the region and winds have subsided somewhat though plenty of areas continue to see gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Cases in point: Meeker is 28 degrees cooler, Aspen is 20 degrees cooler, and Grand Junction is 15 degrees cooler. Southern areas still remain fairly warm but this will change as cooler air continues to drop southward.
347 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Cold front and associated convection has pushed east of the forecast area.
Temperatures across the region have held a few to several degrees above freezing. However, some sheltered areas may have dipped at freezing and some slick spots may exist due to icing. Via water vapor imagery, the associated 500mb trough will continue to cross the Rockies, deepening over the central plains, with rain and drizzle chances continuing across the area through the morning, focused along the associated cold front. Overall, the better surface pressure changes are expected to be across Nebraska into Kansas, with influence from the 500mb trough swinging across Iowa later in the afternoon suggesting the axis of stronger winds will reside from Kansas to Nebraska to Iowa. Dry and unseasonably cooler weather will continue to persist through the end of the week.
A weather system will clip the region over the weekend bringing a bout of gusty winds and a chance of showers to the higher elevations. Flat high pressure ridge over the region will result in continued mild and dry conditions through the remainder of the week.
216 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Showers will continue tonight as a warm front crosses the region. A pronounced cold front will bring additional showers, and a chance for thunder, on Wednesday morning. Scattered power outages will be possible due to the high winds. By this time, the vast majority of the forecast area should be above freezing. By afternoon, we anticipate a fairly steady rain area-wide, as isentropic lift maximizes ahead of a warm frontal boundary, approaching from the south. At any rate, we may well see a relative lull in rainfall/shower activity overnight, as the warm front itself lifts into the forecast area, shifting the best overrunning/isentropic lift farther north.
310 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A cold front will push east across the area tonight. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible with this cold front. Another cold front pushes southeast later this week. These showers and storms are associated with a cold front which should push across our area tonight. High pressure generally through the period with below normal temperatures.
Deteriorating flight conditions will develop from west to east from around 04-07z as the convective line builds in just ahead of the Midwest cold front.
scattered to numerous showers and isolated t-storms expected with next cold front.
Some mixed precip could occur into far northeast Iowa/southwest Wisconsin with slightly warmer temps. At this time of year, accumulations can be tricky due to warmer ground temps/compaction, especially during the daytime hours, dependent on snowfall rates. Chilly 850 mb temps around -13 to -16C will spread in behind the low, with overnight lows in the teens, and possibly single digits for areas to the west that clear out. Cool and dry weather is expected for Wednesday under high pressure, with highs only reaching the 20s to low 30s, about 20 degrees below average.
309 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Main focus for period initially is the strong to isolated severe storm potential tonight into tomorrow morning with an amplifying trough/strengthening jet dynamics from the west and a rather robust attendant cold front. Wednesday night should have most areas in the mid to upper 30s and for now it looks reasonable for the far NE mtns to hit the freezing mark.
The highly anomalous TPW plume (AR, Pineapple Express) with a 6+ NAEFS anomaly and 30+ year Return Interval makes this a rare event even for April, and one potentially in the top 5 of April two day rainfall total events.
Expect a mild day overall on Wednesday as high pressure builds in across the area.
312 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Main concerns in this forecast cycle are initial severe storm threat as the system and cold front move through AR. Then tonight behind the cold front, very cold air will filter into AR, and freezing to below freezing temperatures are possible over northern AR.
A cold front will move across the Southeast tonight into Wednesday along bringing scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms.
A wind advisory remains in effect for strong and gusty winds until 10 pm tonight, as a cold front moves in from the west. Expect the cold front to move rapidly across the Mid-State, likely entering our most northwestern counties shortly after 7 pm this evening and reaching the I-65 corridor around 10pm and off the Cumberland Plateau shortly after midnight.
We decided to keep the high wind warning in effect for the I-80 corridor for another couple hours for now since there is still some potential for mixing from the subsidence. The main question will be how long the surface trof sets up camp on the lee side of the Laramie range.
Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail today into tonight as a transient flat ridge crosses the area. Initial low end chances of rain/mountain snow will enter the area late tonight as a weak wave crosses the area in advance of a warm front. Highs today will range from the mid/upper 50s for the lower elevations to the 40s mountains.
Issued by National Weather Service KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 323 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Latest satellite imagery now showing clearing line advancing east this afternoon as drier air associated with high pressure to the north builds south across the Central Plains. For tomorrow, surface ridging will slide east of the region which should allow for southerly winds to return to the region. After a cold start, temps should be able to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s, with strengthening winds expected by afternoon as pressure falls occur across the High Plains. Period should start off dry across the region as high pressure remains to the southeast under pre-existing northwest flow aloft. Fcst models in reasonably good agreement that a weak cold front will drop south late in the day as high pressure again builds south across the High Plains.
Sky cover update to the forecast this morning as the cloud deck streaming in today ahead of the warm front set to bring precipitation to the area tomorrow has thickened considerably.
In response to a progressive deepening upper trof, the low will then deepen and track northeast moving into central IL by 18Z and into the lower Great Lakes region by 00Z. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop as the advancing cold front moves into east central and southeast MO early this afternoon, with the line growing with time as it moves east into southern IL. By late afternoon the cold front will be well east of the CWA moving into the Ohio Valley with gusty northwest winds and strong CAA in the wake of the front. Sub- freezing temperatures, well below normal, will prevail across the entire CWA by daybreak Wednesday.
125 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 An approaching warm front, will bring rain to much of the region today, and into this evening. A pronounced cold front, will bring additional showers, on Wednesday morning. By this time, the vast majority of the forecast area should be above freezing. By afternoon, we anticipate a fairly steady rain area-wide, as isentropic lift maximizes ahead of a warm frontal boundary, approaching from the south. At any rate, we may well see a relative lull in rainfall/shower activity overnight, as the warm front itself lifts into the forecast area, shifting the best overrunning/isentropic lift farther north.
An additional 1 to 5 inches of snow will be possible today, with the highest amounts mainly southwest of Pierre, and across our southeast counties along the Coteau De Prairies. High pressure will be firmly in place over the central part of the country Wednesday morning.
228 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 High pressure over the region will move eastward today as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. This will keep above normal temperatures and dry weather in place today with a cold front crossing the area Wednesday along with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
/Issued 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ Main focus for period initially is the strong to isolated severe storm potential tonight into tomorrow morning with an amplifying trough/strengthening jet dynamics from the west and a rather robust attendant cold front. Wednesday night should have most areas in the mid to upper 30s and for now it looks reasonable for the far NE mtns to hit the freezing mark.
It should be a rather pleasant late afternoon and early evening as the forecast area awaits the arrival of a strong cold front later tonight. The deep low pressure system driving the boundary will move steadily northeast from Central Illinois into the Eastern Great Lakes by daybreak Wednesday. High pressure will be in control for Wed night, and it will be rather cold across the area.
The warm front that was over the area has lifted well to the north into southern OH as evident by the convection that has developed to the north this afternoon. Heading into tonight, the line of storms develops just ahead of the cold front which is now just moving into eastern MO. The rain will come to an end by tomorrow afternoon and cloud cover is expected to lift out of the area as high pressure quickly ushers in colder and drier air from the west.
1054 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Atmosphere is well dried out by the chilly area of high pressure settling through eastern NE this afternoon. Frontal lift should result in some fairly quick saturation starting about 09z into the western Missouri River locations, expanding through southeast SD and the lower Missouri River valley toward the morning rush. There is some indication of a small negative EPV reservoir along the southern edge of the saturation area, which could indicate potential that band may tend to shift/contract toward the warmer side a bit more than expected, which could enhance amounts a bit more toward highway 20.
This trough will enter western Missouri late this afternoon. Forecast soundings are all below freezing, so expect this to be an all snow event, with accumulating snow staying over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. With clouds increasing over the area today ahead of the trough, highs will struggle to reach guidance temperatures which are below normal.
239 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 At 2 AM, a ridge of high pressure was located along the Mississippi River. This ridge was producing mainly clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A short wave trough, currently located over the western Dakotas, will move southeast through western Iowa this morning. As this short wave trough moves into northern Illinois late this afternoon, the snow will quickly taper off from the west and north.
1254 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A cold front and area of low pressure will move through the area tonight.
428 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon, offering colder temperatures with lingering flurries ending this morning. An upper level disturbance tracking across the lower Great Lakes will result in snow for parts of the area tonight.
434 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon, offering colder temperatures with lingering flurries ending this morning. An upper level disturbance tracking across the lower Great Lakes will result in snow for parts of the area tonight.
233 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A sharp cold front will push east across Pennsylvania this morning.
Otherwise, expecting a cold night, as high pressure settles south across the eastern half of Kansas.
Winds remained southerly across much of western Nebraska with temperatures beginning to rise from the lower and mid teens. A wedge of warmer air aloft ranging from 0C to 3C will reside along and slightly behind the leading edge of the precipitation. Highs from 32 at North Platte, 35 at Ogallala, and 38 at Imperial will contrast to the lower 20s northeast. Skies to once again become mainly cloudy, as lows range from the low single digits northeast to the lower teens southeast panhandle and far southwest counties.
The high shifts east during the day Monday, and this allows for some thermal recovery as winds turn around to the south and all should see the mercury rise above the freezing mark during the day, with 40s just off to our south.
PoPs were increased further as light snow overspreads the region in the wake of an advancing cold front. All lingering snow showers will be confined to the ridge zones by late tonight, and should wane early in the morning. Previous An update was issued to increase POPs to categorical levels with the crossing cold front. Still about an inch of accumulation anticipated given progression with additional concern for residual water freezing on roads. The cold front will dramatically sweep the region tonight accompanied by snow showers and wind gusts near 30 mph. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average on Monday with dry conditions under building high pressure.
Unfortunately, Arctic temperatures have moved in, with temperatures already more than 30 degrees cooler than yesterdays highs.
With the high pressure building into the region, expect a clearing sky from north to south this morning.
Strong high pressure aloft near the West Coast will maintain dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures this week. The upper pattern is currently defined by a large and strong ridge of high pressure off the West Coast and a broad mean trough over the eastern states.
For the most part, we will get only the southern edge of this high, as it is forecast to quickly move eastward today. But enough influence to bring brief clearing through this afternoon along and north of I-10 and cooler air with highs this afternoon in the upper 50s to lower 60s, near seasonal levels.
The jet streak associated with the trough is expected to pass over the area, which focuses the left exit region divergence over southern NE and the state line. PV advection ahead of the trough should also apply additional large scale lift to the region. There is a slight chance given the strength of the lift that some light snow and sleet could clip far northern KS especially if the trough tracks slightly further south. This trough forces another cold front into the area during the afternoon.
123 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Low pressure will pass off the New Jersey coast tonight, as a sharp cold front pushes southeast across Pennsylvania.
Northwest flow will continue chances for showers tonight through Monday, mainly for the higher terrain.
302 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 A persistent rex block off the west coast of the US will keep large scale troughing over much of the CONUS this week. Another cold front will continue to back door into the area tonight.
Skies are beginning to clear from north to south as high pressure moves into the central Plains. Gusty winds from the north northwest will begin to die down tonight as this high moves over northeast Kansas tonight. The high is quick to move out and by sunrise gusty, southerly winds will return to central Kansas. Southerly flow will help warm up temperatures tomorrow with highs ranging from the low 30s to low 40s.
249 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Low pressure will be moving farther away from the forecast area tonight. The pressure ridge approaching from the west will extend trough the area Monday night.
The cold front has exited our forecast area, with drier air already moving in behind it as seen in our lower surface dewpoint temperatures and the drier air in the WV satellite imagery. A ridge of high pressure will build in over the southeast U.
Forecast soundings show the low level moisture mixing out by noon for all the area leading to everyone seeing some sunshine today.
1130 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 An area of high pressure at the surface will drift from South Dakota and Nebraska east into Illinois by Monday morning. The position of the high will keep skies mostly clear over central Wisconsin through the night with temperatures dropping into the single digits below zero. The winds will come around to the southwest on the back side of the high with speeds generally in the 5 to 10 mph range. The short wave trough just off the Pacific Northwest coast today will rapidly move southeast in the strong northwest flow aloft.
There is some suggestion that a developing warm nose atop a sub-freezing boundary layer could yield light sleet or freezing rain over portions of southeast Nebraska late Monday morning. We do have a swath of 1-3 inches forecast along a line from Norfolk to the Omaha area, with the highest amounts up to 3" in portions of west central IA from Monona to Shelby counties. Another cold night Monday night with high pressure again moving overhead, when lows drop into the single digits mostly, but should dip below zero in northeast NE to west central IA where the fresh snow just occurred.
Primarily zonal flow will remain aloft as the base of an upper longwave trough remains over the region, with dry weather conditions and clear to mostly clear skies persisting over the next 24 hours.
Based on forecast sounding analysis, there is also the potential for a brief period of sleet across the far western portion of the CWA late this morning/early afternoon as warmer 850mb temps nose into the region. However, expect the highest gusts will generally be limited to around 25 mph.
Looking at the latest analyzed data and the high-res guidance, think the stout warm nose is a bit over forecast. The guidance continues to indicate an area of warmer air moving in from the west, but the strength of it continues to be slightly less, which is in line with the latest analysis. Cannot rule out a period of wintry mix, sleet and even freezing rain, but think this will be brief if it occurs, with the main precip type snow.
Look for little change in the weather as strong high pressure will remain in place near the West Coast through the remainder of the week. An upper level ridge continues to be the dominate synoptic feature for the state of California this evening. This ridge has brought a prolonged period of well above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the Golden State. The upper level ridge will remain parked offshore on Monday and will continue to aid in bringing above normal temperatures to much of California.
Ceilings between 1500-2500 ft transition down below 1000 ft by early evening and anticipate areas of fog, dz, -ra to fill in as a warm front moves inland. /ISSUED 1017 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ Drier and cooler air filtering in from the northeast behind a weak afternoon boundary passage. The drier and cooler air mass upon northeasterlies will aid in saturating the lower couple of thousand feet below the frontal inversion and either allow fog or low stratus to form or remain through sunrise.
Strong high pressure aloft near the west coast will maintain dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures this week. Dry and warmer than normal conditions can be anticipated this week as a ridge of high pressure aloft remains positioned off the west coast.
/Issued 417 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ Our midday cold front has made temperature forecast extremely difficult for this evening and overnight. Temperatures have oscillated warmer and cooler early this afternoon and this trend is expected to continue up to sunset. Prior to the low center moving south of the forecast area, we will see strong downsloping winds push our high temperatures into the 60s and low 70s. As the evening approaches our next cold front will take aim at the Panhandles. A lack of moisture in the snow growth zone for all but the northeast Oklahoma Panhandle will keep the precip type between freezing rain and sleet. The trend will be for freezing rain to be favored farther south while sleet will be favored farther north.
For the rest of the afternoon, snow will quickly come to an end as the upper trough passes to the east. A strong high pressure area will move into the region tonight but the tight pressure gradient, and resulting stronger winds will persist for several more hours leading to some blowing and drifting of the snow that fell. The high pressure passes through the area tonight and with clear skies, a dry airmass, light/calm winds, and now a fresh couple of inches of snow, temperatures will be bitterly cold. What may prevent us from really bottoming out is that by around sunrise, winds should start to increase from the south as the high pressure moves to the southeast of the area.
350 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 The center of high pressure will rapidly move out of the Central Plains this morning, and into the Mississippi valley and southern plains later today. As surface pressure falls across the southern High Plains, winds will rapidly turn northerly as a cold front moves from northwest Kansas into he Panhandles between noon and mid afternoon.
450 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Snow showers continue across the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky in a cold air advection/upslope flow regime. Surface ridging sliding overhead this morning and afternoon will allow for a clearing trend as backing flow aloft in wake of the departing trough ushers in higher heights. Despite this infiltration of warm air advection aloft, a stout subsidence inversion will allow for the newly entrenched cold dome to maintain influence as high temperatures only climb into the low-mid 30s this afternoon. High pressure quickly sliding east of the Commonwealth, downstream of yet another upper trough extending south of a Hudson Bay low, will allow for an early evening ridge/valley temperature split as valleys quickly decouple.
The jet streak associated with the trough is expected to pass over the area, which focuses the left exit region divergence over southern NE and the state line. PV advection ahead of the trough should also apply additional large scale lift to the region.
with a weak surface trof crossing the area early on Monday morning and a second reinforcing shot of cold air pushing through the day on Monday.
Ridging aloft is starting to weaken this evening and nudge west. Mainly middle and high level cloudiness is moving over the area currently as a weak disturbance pushes south in northwest flow aloft around the ridge circulation.