Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The precip is courtesy of a weak upper level low over the western Gulf. Will begin to dry things out on Tuesday and taper PoPs from the highest over the SW and lower to the NE.
A Cold Front Brings a Cooler It will be very similar today like it was yesterday with not much overall change in the weather pattern.
A summertime pattern is expected, with high pressure overhead and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the heat of the afternoon and early evening.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates that the center of the ridge has retreated some out over the Atlantic. At the surface, a high pressure center is in place across the Great Lakes with Tropical Depression 8 just off the Carolina coast. For today, the low-level pressure gradient between the high to the NW and low associated with Tropical Depression 8 to the SE will lead to NE low level flow. Continued with just a small mention of shower/storms across the area later this afternoon but do not expect any strong or severe storms with the lower instability values and weak mid-level flow. With upper level heights in the 590-593 dm range, expect another hot day with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s in most valley locations.
426 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 The upper low spinning over northeast New Mexico early this morning will continue to control our weather again today. This low will remain nearly stationary through the short term. The position of the low will allow mid level moisture to continue to be pumped into the region with persistent south-southwesterly flow aloft.
An upper level low meandering over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Texas coastal areas will bring slightly above normal moisture to South Central Texas today through Tuesday.
1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Mid/Upper level trough remains in place near four corners region, with ridge across the southeastern US. Monday: As the upper low shifts slightly better forcing is depicted and a stronger precip signal in our east through the day Monday (particularly late Monday afternoon). As upper low shifts east air mass aloft will decrease, and depending on timing of cloud cover/precip we may trend cooler than guidance is currently indicating. For now consensus is favoring slightly below normal highs in the lower 80s for most locations in our CWA. Weak upper low situated over southwestern Colorado Monday night will continue to slowly weaken and push northeast on Tuesday.
333 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 An upper level low currently over northwest New Mexico will lift northeast across Colorado today and weaken. Airmass will again be somewhat moist with precipitable water values ranging from a half inch over the higher terrain to one inch over the eastern plains. Will have the highest pops along and south of Interstate 70 and across the eastern plains where the best instability will reside. This will help keep temperatures slightly cooler today with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. However, northern areas may see some clearing resulting in cooler temperatures.
Thus, expect high temperatures will be a bit cooler each of the next two days with mainly dry conditions. Although, the cold front is expected to kick off some showers and storms across the eastern and southern parts of our cwa Monday afternoon and evening.
359 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Weak but broad ridging continues across the region this morning. strong high pressure sits across Saskatchewan into ern MT/wrn ND behind a cold front which has pushed across ne to sw SD in the last few hours. This will bring cooler temps to nw SD into the BH area today with highs in the mid 80s. though 5 degrees or so cooler than yesterday. Upper ridging will strengthen across the central CONUS Tuesday.
High pressure will build over the central Great Lakes on Monday and slowly sink south on Tuesday.
Deep layer ridging is still in place this afternoon with scattered weak showers developing in the deep easterly flow. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.
658 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will weaken over the local area today.
359 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 An upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken, and a trough will begin to drop southeast over the Great Lakes during the period.
224 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will bring warmer weather for the next few days. A trough of low pressure will bring a gradual cooling trend the latter half of this week. Cooler weather and more coastal clouds are expected for the holiday weekend. High pressure aloft will strengthen today over Southern California. Temperatures will rise into the 100s for much of the Inland Empire and exceed 110 in parts of the lower deserts.
Upper ridge remains parked east to west across the Ohio Valley, with a weak easterly surface gradient under it.
628 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Expect dry weather today and tonight as an upper ridge remains Missouri and Illinois. Britt The dry weather will continue into Saturday as the ridge remains over the area, so any showers and thunderstorms associated with the approaching trough from the west will stay just to the west of the CWA.
Today Through Saturday Night It should be a warm day across the forecast area today as an upper ridge reaches peak strength before gradually ceding control to an approaching plains trough later in the weekend. Highs today will once again be some 5-10 degrees above normal as a result, with most places reaching the lower 90s. Despite waning strength, temperatures will be similar on Saturday though slightly cooler, most notably so in the higher terrain. Better rain chances will begin to creep into western Arkansas late Saturday night as the trough draws near.
and Saturday Latest surface analysis shows a cold front has settled south across northern Illinois early this morning. This front is forecast to remain well to our south today and tonight, before lifting back north on Friday as a warm front across the upper Mississippi Valley. The passage of the cold front will mark a return to temperatures around normal for this time of year, as well as a well needed break from heavy rain.
This drier air is the result of the continued north to northwesterly continental flow around the remnants of TS Julia and a weak upper trough located along the South Carolina coast and south Georgia, respectively.
A low amplitude upper level trough and associated frontal boundary will weaken as it moves east of the Cascades today. Highs will be mainly in the 50s mountains and 60s in the lower elevations. There will be a bit of a westerly breeze this afternoon and evening in the lower elevations.
Concur with the GFS deterministic that the strong upper low/disturbance will move slowly acrs the WRN CONUS during the period with no significant upper forcing over the CWA/MSA.
Another hot day is in store as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s. /issued 350 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ A large upper level ridge of high pressure over the Mid South will persist through much of the weekend.
/issued 300 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ Aloft - A ridge centered over the southern plains reached north to Lake Winnipeg, Canada. A trough was along coastal VA/NC/SC. Surface - High pressure was along the Manitoba-Ontario, Canada border while a cold front stretched from the upper Mississippi valley to the Saint lawrence Valley. Relaxed high pressure sprawled from the western gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic states. A trough was offshore the southeast U. The upper ridge slides east. as the upper trough semi-fills and drifts to south GA/north FL. The Canadian high pressure moves to the Ontario- Quebec border with the front dropping south. coastal trough washes out by SAT morning as high pressure settles in across the Gulf coast and southeastern states with a relaxed pressure field.
1033 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Strong upper low over north central Utah this morning will continue to lift to the north and east into Wyoming through this evening. Strong closed upper low now over the Nevada/Utah border area is expected to lift out to the Northeast into Western Wyoming by this evening. Ahead of the low there is a strong Southwest flow aloft over Colorado and varying amounts of banded moisture. Once the low lifts up into Wyoming. The upper level low will be over Wyoming on Saturday with wrap around moisture continuing to bring precipitation to the mountains through Saturday afternoon. Instability and lingering moisture will keep a slight chance of precipitation through Saturday evening for the higher mountains and adjacent plains. Elsewhere on the plains clouds will increase through the day with cooler temperatures on continuing cold advection.
Large upper level low is now currently located across eastern NV and Western UT streaming ample moisture across the area. This low has dove slightly further south than models indicated earlier in the week. Models do indicate as this low slowly progresses eastward a bit of energy heads into MT. Southern areas will be close enough to the upper low that scattered to numerous showers are possible through the afternoon and evening hours. however a sharp cutoff will be found as the low moves across WY.
727 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After another warm day, a cold front will return temperature to seasonal levels. Mid and high clouds have moved into northwest PA and eastern OH in advance of a developing New England upper trough and a weak cold front.
657 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Upper level high amplitude ridge is currently situated over the Central States with an upper low over Nevada and an associated long wave trough digging into the Great Basin region out west. high pressure dominates the southeastern quarter of the U. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist into Saturday as the area remains under high pressure. This will push a cold front.
At the present time a surface warm front is located just to the south of our CWA. Tonight looks mostly clear during the early part of the night, with the exception of the Buffalo Ridge area where low level moisture may linger. Later at night a cold front begins to approach from the west, and could see some thunderstorm development through south central SD toward 12z on Saturday.
1111 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Upper level trough will begin weakening and exiting the region today with slightly drier air for Saturday as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
Surface and upper ridge will continue through the weekend keeping temps well above climatology while drying out the troposphere.
Closed upper low that was situated over the Carolinas the past few days has opened into a trough with the axis stretched across the southeast.
However, the mid level ridge will be sitting right over the top of the area and this subsistence should squash any possible convection.
Convective temperatures are in the low to mid 80s and expect shower coverage to increase near the inland terminals 15-17Z as these temperatures are reached. /ISSUED / Mid-upper level ridging over the northern areas this morning with moist low level flow from the Gulf across the southwestern area and on into the Hill Country. The low level flow will drag in greater moisture today and by mid morning expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to have spread well inland. Rich plume of low level moisture from the central Gulf will flow into the region in advance of longwave trough that will be advancing southeastward today and Saturday before stalling.
A cold front has pushed through the region bringing dry and cooler conditions to the area.
This combined with high pressure at the surface is making for a rather pleasant day so far. The main low pressure center is expected to weaken and move east out to sea as it gets sucked into T.
In addition an upper level trough will remain mostly stationary across the northeastern Gulf. However, the low level wind profile and the presence of cloud convergence bands will be somewhat favorable for waterspout development during the morning hours across portions of the Gulf and Atlantic waters. The upper low across the northeast Gulf is forecast to remain in place on Saturday.
634 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Central Great Basin/Southwest states is progged to move eastward into the Central Rockies through the day today.
748 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 Upper level trough will begin weakening and exiting the region today with slightly drier air for Saturday as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY AS COOL OR COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT BY MID MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE A BIT. HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EK FLAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
1007 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A high pressure ridge remain in place across the region this morning. to the lower 90s to perhaps mid 90s over the central and southern Valley given the ample sunshine and dry soil conditions. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 67 92 67 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0.
Upper level trough over Ontario will move southeast and drop drier air to our east. Upper level low over NV/UT will move into eastern ND by 12Z Sun and over western Ontario by 12z Mon. Upper low takes on some negative tilt. Also upper low opens up after passing the area. Upper level jet segments remain on the east and west sides of the trough through the period. Upper level trough off the Canada west coast will move into central Canada by the end of the period. High amplitude trough will extend from the desert southwest to the Northern Plains to central Canada by 12Z Sun. Then the northern portion of the trough will shear off by 12Z Mon. Upper level jet forecast to dig on the west side of the trough Sun night.
A slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be retained today for northwestern sections, where Pacific cold front or dryline will provide a focus for development.
/issued 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ Upper level low currently centered over the dessert southwest will lift north through the day today while vort max centered at the base of the trough moves through the Four-Corners region into the Front Range. Surface winds will become breezy out of the south ahead of the sharpening trough that drops into northern New Mexico Friday afternoon with increasing cloudiness later in the afternoon and early evening. Some interesting evolutionary changes in this morning's data with regard to the low across the Great Basin. The main circulation is expected to lift rapidly northward into eastern MT as ridging maintains a stronghold across the Mississippi Valley.
The calendar now says FALL, but the weather still says SUMMER, although models are hinting at a significant cold front coming. Meanwhile, the parching, dry weather remains in place today, as high pressure continues to dominate the forecast.
Surface wise, a broad and weak area of high pressure persist over the Sunshine State and the adjacent nearshore Atlantic and Gulf waters. Although the low and mid level flow will not be ideal for typical cloud line genesis, light winds, ample moisture with a conditionally unstable airmass will prompt low chance pops to be retained.
1132 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A cold front will move south across the area today.
1203 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After another warm day, a cold front will return temperature to seasonal levels.
920 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through today. A weak cold front will push south into the area tonight.
547 AM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A strong upper low is in place over Nevada/Utah border, with SW flow ahead of this feature across the Central Rockies and High Plains. Today-Tonight: Forcing will increase this afternoon as upper low transitions eastward and upper level jet streak moves over western KS.
(Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016) Currently, there are only a few clouds across the forecast area with temps ranging from the low to upper 60s.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue through this period continuing the string of hot and mostly dry days. As has been the case for the last few days, the continued dryness in the lower levels has led to overachieving maximum temperatures when compared to guidance.
929 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A cold front will move south across the area today.
A strong area of high pressure remains in place over northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee this morning. We could use some here, but will remain dry courtesy of the high pressure and very dry air aloft. Current temperatures are already in the lower 80s in the normal hot spots such as Huntsville and Muscle Shoals.
747 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through later today and tonight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. The cold front seems to enter the state sometime before sunset. All model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
High pressure will keep the forecast dry into the weekend. However, the pattern will change late in the weekend as a low pressure system tracks out of the Northern Plains and into Manitoba.
711 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 One last hot day is on tap for today, before a cool front brings cooler weather for the weekend.
609 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Dry conditions will continue through Friday, courtesy of an amplifying mid-level ridge directly overhead of the local area as depicted on water vapor imagery.
An intense upper level trough was progressing into the Intermountain West early this morning.
951 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After another warm day, a cold front will return temperature to seasonal levels. With mid morning update, made some slight tweaks to hourly temperature trends for warmer temperatures to the north, along with minimal changes to sky cover. Mid and high clouds have moved into northwest PA and eastern OH in advance of a developing New England upper trough and a weak cold front.
658 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A warm front was lifting through the forecast area early this morning, with all convection north of the region. Pops dramatically increase through the day Saturday as a cold front begins to move toward the region with a marginal risk of severe storms possible Saturday afternoon/evening.
scattered to broken mid clouds are forecast over the region as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. /Issued 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ Unseasonably hot conditions will continue today as upper ridge remains across the southern plains/southeast states. High temperatures are expected to be at least 10 degrees above normal with highs in the lower 90s across most of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Warm conditions will persist on Saturday, but should be a few degrees cooler across eastern Oklahoma as low level moisture/clouds begin to increase. Upper low, currently moving through the intermountain west, will lift northeast into the northern Rockies over the weekend with precipitation chances increasing.
Expect this convection to dissipate next 1-2 hours with dry conditions expected this afternoon across CWA as 591 dm 500 mb upper level ridge over the Ozarks of southern MO/northern AR builds northward over the MS river valley, with 500 mb heights of 589 dm over CWA. This upper level ridge should be strong enough to suppress redevelopment of convection along frontal boundary sagging southward into central IL this afternoon. Temps will be cooler north of boundary especially north of Peoria where more cloud cover but still should reach mid 80s over Knox, Stark and Marshall counties. However, the mid level ridge will be sitting right over the top of the area and this subsistence should squash any possible convection.
Models show the closed upper low currently near Salt Lake City lifting northward into central WY by this evening. The warm front will lift northward across the plains through the day with southerly winds strengthening from I-25 eastward. Cold front is progged to be near the Laramie Range by the aftn, and this will be focus for shower/tstm development. There will be a marginal risk of svr storms across the plains and especially north of the warm front. Storm activity over the plains should begin to die down by the late evening with the cold front pushing across the Panhandle by 06Z. Moist westerly 700-500 mb flow on the backside of the upper low will create favorable orographics, especially over the Sierra Madre Range.
The main low pressure center is expected to weaken and move east out to sea as it gets sucked into T.
Temperatures will remain above normal, but trend a little cooler this weekend behind a weak cold front.
/issued 427 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The upper ridge will be pushed farther east today as a large upper trough currently over the Great Basin region begins to advance east across the Rockies. Lows by daybreak Saturday will be in the lower 70s.
/issued 350 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ A large upper level ridge of high pressure over the Mid South will persist through much of the weekend.
The moisture transport that is helping to drive the heavy rain along the warm front finally subsides by mid morning today. Meanwhile a deep trough was digging into the western conus. The warm front then edges northward and becomes oriented parallel with the surface/near surface flow.
Upper low in central Utah went a little farther south than expected but should now turn northeast toward Wyoming. Our CWA is on the northwest fringe of the low's circulation and showers are still forecast for Twin Falls County today. Clearing and cooler tonight with diminishing winds.
435 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Tonight and Tuesday: A trough, currently observed on water vapor imagery swinging southeast out of the plains and into the Southeast United States, will continue to force a cold front into and through the CWA this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front on Tuesday. Once again, some clouds will remain present in the north along the Highway 82 corridor, resulting in partly cloudy skies there Tuesday afternoon. Although temperatures are expected to fall to below freezing in some areas, dry conditions and significant winds will also limit frost development.
/Issued 514 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ Northerly winds today will keep the Panhandles cooler than yesterday. This cloud cover will aid in keeping temps overnight from dropping too much and keep most from seeing freezing temps. Lee side troughing will develop in association with downsloping winds during this upper level northwest flow pattern.
High pressure continues to nose into the region today as it sends a weak cold front towards the region. The front may cross into our area later this afternoon helping to pull in drier and cooler air, also helping to scour out the lingering stratus. High temperatures will be on the cooler side, slightly below average.
Also have mixed light precipitation sw of Springfield including patchy freezing drizzle from Macomb to Jacksonville to Litchfield sw. Temperatures at 1030 am are 27-32F and have been nearly steady this morning just below freezing. Highs this afternoon in the mid 30s northern CWA and around 40F in southeast IL, so slick roads north of I-70 should gradually improve as temps rise above freezing in the afternoon. Forecast soundings across this area suggest a potential loss of ice crystals in the profile, which could cause the light snow to mix with or change to a period of freezing drizzle along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line through 15z. Despite the low weakening and tracking into the Ohio River Valley, a few rain and snow showers will linger into the evening.