Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT CENTRAL IA RAIN OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN IOWA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED OUR CWA TO THE EAST.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD STRONG OVER OUR AREA TODAY IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. FORECAST PROBLEM THIS SHIFT KEYS IN ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
1250 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED WELL OFF SHORE, TO THE EAST, WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE WIND TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW. THE HIGH RICK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
1230 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. A TRANSITION TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LOWER MEASURABLE SHOWER CHANCES THEN THIS AFTN/EVE AS MOISTURE/SUPPORT SCOURS ALOFT AND A TRAILING LOW LEVEL TROUGH EDGES INTO A MOIST NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
Short wave trough currently moving through the central High Plains this afternoon had resulted in considerable mid level cloudiness along with a band of sprinkles or light showers to parts of the area. Skies should become clear across the region this evening as a short wave ridge moves overhead. This should help keep overnight lows up a little toward the warmer MAV guidance numbers. Daytime high temperatures should top out in the upper 50s to near 60 given a slightly warmer airmass and some modest downslope flow.
An upper level trough was moving east across western Kansas and was generating mid level clouds along with some sprinkles in central Kansas. Low pressure trough is forecast to develop across the Western High Plains as another upper trough moves across the Rockies. This will shift winds to the southwest and south keeping the lower boundary layer mixed. The warm advection will continue across the area on Tuesday as the upper trough moves eastward and an associated cold front moves southeast into north central Kansas. Forecast soundings show mixing down from around 900mb-925mb which will yield highs in the lower to middle 50s.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ALL DAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE IOWA TONIGHT AND WILL FINALLY SWING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. IOWA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK IMPULSES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. SO REMAINED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.
AND TUESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND COLDER AIR IS USHERED IN NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. DEPENDING ON THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL AS ROAD TEMPERATURES.
THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ALONG WITH MID AND HIGHER ALTITUDE MOISTURE AND A NEARING COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. NOT ANTICIPATING MANY PROBLEMS IF THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP. OR OUT OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS CARVED OUT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with light south winds of 5 to 12 mph. Have added a slight chance for rain showers east of Dodge City after midnight with an attendant cold front and upper lift.
/FOR THE 12Z TAFS/ SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN. /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER H85 TEMPS TO PREVAIL AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH, BUT A FEW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OR CREEP TOWARD THE SW TX PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY ON THU AS A WEAK SHRTWV RIDES THE RIDGE. LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE SCOOTS EAST HEIGHTS WILL FALL ENOUGH AND H85 TEMPS SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES. RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WARM AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER E TX/LA. REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PERSISTENCE AS THE MID/UPPER HIGH OVER E TX/LA CONTINUES. THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD BY SAT/SUN. MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MAY SWING ENOUGH ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE HIGH TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA EASTWARD INTO SE LA. THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THIS MOISTURE TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
810 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
826 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SFC PATTERN IS VERY WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
1043 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY. PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BRINGING A BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL SURGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH VERY OPPRESSIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE SURFACE. WE'RE ACTUALLY WARMER IN THE LOWEST 700MB THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BAY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. /61/ AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION BUT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHT. WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH WE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY THUS PUSHING THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TX WILL EXTEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WHERE DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE LESS. EARLY MORNING RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS THE GREATEST INFLUENCE OVER WEST TEXAS OVER THE COMING WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ENVELOPS THE WESTERN STATES.
1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ESSENTIALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS SUMMER TIME SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS.
504 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ACTIVE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD UP ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS CO. PARTICULARLY OUT EAST WHERE HIGHS SHOULD STAY DOWN IN THE LOWER-MID 90S INSTEAD OF THE 100 DEGREE READINGS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. MTN AREAS SHOULD SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
620 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN REVEALS RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND TO EASTERN NEB. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH RAINFALL CHANCES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL TURN EAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK. LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE MOISTURE IS POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS COURTESY OF MONSOON RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE.
1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HYDRO LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
FORECAST DEWPOINTS SEEM TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
1247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
1222 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPDATE/MARINE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.
1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE TO 15OOO FEET (15 KFT) WILL BE WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SHOULD PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE TODAY.
607 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM.
654 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WELL ALOFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE IN BETWEEN TWO MEAN LAYER ANTICYCLONES. HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE LOWER KEYS.
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANGE IN AIRMASS. READILY SEEN BY THE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WAS RIDING EAST ALONG THE "RING OF FIRE", AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, BRINGING MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS BACK WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTERACT WITH MORE SUBSYNOPTIC SCALE PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AROUND THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS.
254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PATCHY CLEAR SKY WAS SEEN UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. LATE TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION.
Under weak ridging aloft and sunny skies, temperatures will climb well into the 80s most locations.
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS WILL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT BAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BECOME FIXED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
316 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 MID APRIL INSOLATION AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (580+ DAM AT 500 MB) INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ADK MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
338 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 335 AM CDT SIGNS OF OUR DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN SHOW UP IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING. WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. COMPLICATING THE PATTERN IS A CUT OFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN A MINI REX BLOCK OF ITS OWN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING IN STRENGTH AND AERIAL EXTENT AS THE WEST COAST LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
138 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST.
H85 TEMPS ARE PROG TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS. MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/.
303 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 Ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. While an upper low spinning over Arkansas may spread some high/thin clouds into the far SE KILX CWA, overall skies will remain sunny. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week. Warming will be somewhat mitigated by a continued easterly flow around persistent surface ridging, but high temperatures will still climb into the lower 70s by Friday. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment will be an upper low currently over Arkansas. After that, the big question in the extended will be how quickly the upper ridge will break down.
There is an upper level low centered over western Arkansas this morning which will drift eastward today. Mid and high clouds will rotate northwest around this low today. Carney Slow moving, cutoff upper level low now over southwest MO northwest AR will move east-southeastward into northeast AR northwest MS by 12Z Friday. The models, particularly the NAM, were depicting some relatively light QPF on Friday as well, mainly still across southeast MO and southwest IL as low-mid level moisture increases across much of the forecast area as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts further east and surface/low level sely flow increases over the region. The weekend looks dry with persistent upper level ridge over the region. Temperatures will be above normal with persistent southeasterly/southerly surface/low level flow on the western periphery of the surface/850 mb ridge.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a ridge across the center of the Nation with a weak circulation spinning east under the base of the ridge.
344 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK STRETCHED ALONG A BRECKENRIDGE TO HEARNE LINE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GATESVILLE TO HEARNE LINE THROUGH 10 AM.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN MONTANA AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE ROCKIES PICKS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA. THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ENERGETIC SECONDARY CIRCULATION WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER MONTANA.
354 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM GEORGIA. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW MEANDERING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE LIFT.
KEEPING WINDS SOUTHEAST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. STUBBORN POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO YESTERDAY EVENING HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OUT OF SRN WI AND DISSIPATED. YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE MIDDLE 60S. GRADIENT OF COOLER 925 MB TEMPS TO THE EAST WILL PRODUCE LOWER HIGHS.
THEN, IN THE WAKE OF THIS CUTOFF LOW, AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
119 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS SLOWLY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THURSDAY. /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. WITH WARMER READINGS APPROACHING 70 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW FORMING JUST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAINTAINED SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS NEAREST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SAT. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY ON THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
Going forward this afternoon, the models account for cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central Kansas. however the real increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear.
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WEAK RETURN FLOW. THIS AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE OUR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT. READINGS COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -13 C RANGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE WEAK FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
Evening update: One round of showers is tracking into southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle at this hour. /sb 00Z TAFS: A low pressure system near 135W 45N at 00Z will move ashore tonight and track along the WA/OR border between 12Z and 00Z Friday. This occluded low pressure will produce an area of wrap-around stratiform rain to the north as it transits the region.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW COAST. DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE WY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WRN/SCNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH DIGS/STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BULK OF PRECIP WILL THEN SLIDE EWD FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE SLOWLY MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE ACROSS NE WY AND FAR WRN SD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION IS PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER BLKHLS LATE FRI NIGHT.
653 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO BE INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CIRRUS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
645 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS AND CSRA. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. 00Z MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER ARKANSAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. SO LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CSRA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH MAY BE COOLER IN THE CSRA.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL MAINTAIN A STRANGLEHOLD ON INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
128 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.