Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upstream disturbance will override this boundary tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley and north central Gulf of Mexico. Should be a rather sharp pop gradient across the nature coast as high pressure will hold over the remainder of west central and southwest Florida with a mid level subsidence inversion suppressing shower activity, although a stray shower developing under the inversion will be possible.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A 500mb low pressure system continues to move eastward across the Central Plains with a trough axis passing through Deep South Texas this afternoon. Differential heating has led to temperatures nearing 80 degrees in the Upper Valley and only mid 60s in the Lower Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the lower 80s along the Rio Grande with light S/SW winds and less cloud cover expected Friday afternoon.
401 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over eastern SD. Upper low will move north then northwest today and tonight. Another upper level trough on the water vapor loop was indicated over the TX panhandle. Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and more or less park over area. Upper low will produce light precipitation over the forecast area Sat through late Sun night.
An upper trough near the coast will direct precipitation into SE Oregon this morning and SW Idaho late this afternoon and evening. Latest models continue with the trend of slightly warmer temperatures and slightly higher snow levels through Saturday. Northern Harney and northern Malhuer Counties are still on track to receive 2-5 inches of snowfall today through this evening, and the Lower Treasure Valley around Ontario is also on track for 1-3 inches late this morning through this evening.
Latest HRRR keeps fog over the area through the day into tonight, and latest sounding analysis is quite reluctant with mixing the low level moisture out with light winds. In the short term concerns continue to be dense fog and the potential for freezing drizzle as the low levels are saturated with relatively dry air aloft. Surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the James River Valley will also complicate the drizzle/freezing drizzle forecast this morning. The Metro model at Medina mp 231 on I-94 keeps the road surface below freezing through 9 am CST so the potential for drizzle may be east of this area and freezing drizzle west.
In the short term concerns continue to be dense fog and the potential for freezing drizzle as the low levels are saturated with relatively dry air aloft. Surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the James River Valley will also complicate the drizzle/freezing drizzle forecast this morning. The Metro model at Medina mp 231 on I-94 keeps the road surface below freezing through 9 am CST so the potential for drizzle may be east of this area and freezing drizzle west.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge extends across the central portion of the Sunshine States and it reaches well into the Gulf of Mexico. Given a deep layered anticyclone centered over our region, limited moisture combined with a stable air mass in place will preclude any measurable rainfall along the island chain. Resplendent sunshine a light south winds will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
401 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 A deep mid-latitude cyclone is lifting north across the Upper Midwest early this morning.
A northwest to southeast band of mixed precipitation associated with a mid level short wave trough will continue to lift north today. Mixed precipitation consists of mainly rain or freezing rain depending on surface temperatures. Plenty of lower 30 temperatures centered over central Wisconsin early this morning, so running freezing rain advisory looks ok to continue. For locations at or just above freezing, will leave freezing rain advisory run its course as cold surfaces likely enough to produce icy conditions. Precipitation expected to be less than todays event and forecast temperatures appear a few degrees warmer. Will confine any freezing mention to the north late tonight into Saturday morning with surface temperatures near zero. Increasing surface dewpoints and above freezing temperatures will likely keep the threat of fog, locally dense, through Saturday.
459 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Unseasonably warm temperatures overnight with lows only falling into the lower and middle 40s. Another week and our average highs start climbing back into the lower 40s! CVKING Widespread dense fog blankets the region this morning and much of the short term model guidance along with climatology suggest that visibility will not improve until 16Z, so have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 10 a.
1011 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 Rain has returned to the region with a crossing trough of low pressure. A tilted and elongated trough will swing through the area this morning. The associated surface warm front will move through in the same direction, just ahead of the aforementioned upper level system.
A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for that area and the higher elevations of western Siskiyou County, with Winter Weather Advisories for other locations where snow is falling, but less impacts are expected.
As warm front currently draped from across the region lifts northward flight conditions will improve into VFR levels by late morning or early afternoon. Some breaks in the low deck were noted over the past couple of hours and a few stations in central OK have seen a rapid deterioration in the past hour.
An upper level trough off the coast will begin to move inland today which will push a band of precipitation across the forecast area. Precipitation type will be mainly snow but with some rain in the lower elevations by afternoon and evening. There will be a slight chance of some freezing rain at the onset of precipitation in the Columbia Gorge and the lower Columbia Basin but expecting minimal ice accumulations.
644 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 Rain has returned to the region with a crossing trough of low pressure. A tilted and elongated trough will swing through the area this morning. The associated surface warm front will move through in the same direction, just ahead of the aforementioned upper level system.
1053 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A warm front in the forecast area this morning will lift north of the area this afternoon. Another warm front will develop and move into the region Saturday ahead of strong low pressure.
So, forecast on track with the highest pops northeast and slight chance pops southwest. Solid area of showers was lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes overnight along and north of a warm front that extended from southeastern Illinois to the Smokies to the Atlantic Ocean. Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough was pivoting northeast across the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys. Models in good agreement that the upper trough will lift northeast into the lower Great Lakes this afternoon as the warm front moves to northern Indiana. Areas of fog will dissipate behind the warm front this afternoon. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Yet another southwestern upper low will move to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles late Saturday.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over eastern SD. Upper low will move north then northwest today and tonight. Another upper level trough on the water vapor loop was indicated over the TX panhandle. Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and more or less park over area. Upper low will produce light precipitation over the forecast area Sat through late Sun night.
Solid area of showers was lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes overnight along and north of a warm front that extended from southeastern Illinois to the Smokies to the Atlantic Ocean. Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough was pivoting northeast across the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys. Models in good agreement that the upper trough will lift northeast into the lower Great Lakes this afternoon as the warm front moves to northern Indiana. Areas of fog will dissipate behind the warm front this afternoon. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Yet another southwestern upper low will move to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles late Saturday.
A deep, broad low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast is causing southwest flow into the Northern Rockies this morning. Also overnight temperatures have dropped below freezing, so recent rain and snow melt is refreezing on the ground. The ground temperatures remain very cold, helping the refreezing to occur overnight. A large low pressure that develops along the west coast over the weekend will provide periods of light snowfall across the northern Rockies.
436 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 Water vapor shows large upper trof along the west coast, with lead short wave ejecting through the Four Corners. At the sfc, trof is located over cntrl SD with weak cdfnt shifting east of the nrn/cntrl Rockies. Temps will be cooler than yesterday, but still a few degrees above average. Could see a bit of light snow across far nwrn SD Saturday night as moisture wraps around newly formed upper low over the upper midwest.
1035 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A mild airmass will settle across the region today in the wake of a warm frontal passage.
The synoptic trough over the intermountain west is becoming increasingly negatively tilted today as another lobe of energy is expected to swing through tonight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s. After the trough axis passes through, chances of precipitation wane quickly after midnight, but there is a small chance of some snow at the end of precipitation, but no appreciable accumulation is anticipated. Lows tonight will end up in the lower 30s. Followed closer to CONSshort dewpoints through the short term as it appears to initialize best, and CONSMOS winds tonight behind the trough axis. SREF gives a strong signal for more fog development tonight, but as wind shifts to the west behind the trough, I expect fog intensity to wane toward 12Z Saturday.
627 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 Aviation A surge of warmer air is bringing the rain to the area this morning.
505 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery showed an upper level low across the region. Low clouds or fog will remain in place for the foreseeable future as an upper level low slowly rotates overhead. Light drizzle is likely across the region given the low level saturation.
610 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A warm front in the forecast area this morning will lift north of the area this afternoon. Another warm front will develop and move into the region Saturday ahead of strong low pressure.
On the backside of the high moisture and instability will return to the western high plains. This region should be the most active through Wednesday as storms develop over the higher elevations and then spread east/se into the nocturnal LLJ and instability axis. On Tuesday the models are latching onto a better setup for an MCS to from over the high plains.
330 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Upper level high pressure centered over southern Utah early this morning with low pressure moving south into the Great Lakes.
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week. Despite the high clouds overhead. Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited.
Models are indicating elevated storms will continue over the southwest part of the area overnight where the short wave trough will move through, which is further west than the earlier model runs indicated. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable air mass in place after tonight's convection and 700 mb ridging on top of that. Upper high over the four corners area will remain about stationary through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the Central High Plains.
250 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Thunderstorms have developed early this morning across south central NE/north central KS in the vicinity of an elevated cold front that stretches from northern KS into central MO.
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Eastern Kentucky will be rain free in the short term; now that the cold front that brought widespread showers and storms and heavy rain to the area yesterday has finally begun to exit the area. After a night of mostly clear skies and light winds, the cooler air will finally begin settling over the area tonight. On Wednesday, the new air mass should be firmly entrenched, giving us cooler conditions along with high temperatures in the upper 70s for most locations.
Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning with high pressure overhead. Strong ridging remains over the area the next several days resulting in a continuation of hot weather across interior NorCal.
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will remain mostly clear. Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.
The transition to the west to southwest flow will get underway today and become firmly established tonight and Wednesday as the mid/upper level trough develops over the eastern U. Daytime high temperatures today and Wednesday will be near normal and run from the upper 80s close to the coast to the lower and mid 90s inland.
as a weak cold front slowly slips southeast through the area. Ridge will continue to stick around keeping temperatures warm. But in the lower levels the winds will shift to out of the south/southwest bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
We might need to lower overnight temperatures a bit given the proximity of the high, but we would like to watch dewpoint trends (as a proxy for efficiency of radiational cooling) the next few hours before making changes to forecast lows. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal with highs from the 70s to the lower 80s. However, upper level ridging is expected late this weekend. This would favor much warmer temperatures across the region.
418 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Today through Wednesday: Broad upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest extends into the Southern plains and Southeast states during the short term period. Today through Wednesday the ridge remains in control through the region continuing the typical summertime weather pattern across South Florida. The broad upper level ridge retrogrades westward into the four corners region and north Texas. An upper trough digs south over the East coast and Southern Plains bringing a cold front into the panhandle of Florida. As ridge builds across the west Atlantic and the Florida peninsula, a southwesterly flow sets up across the CWA. This high pressure will remain in control and bring an increase in moisture and rain chances into the area.
Continued onshore flow will support a June Gloom pattern and cooler conditions near the coast through this weekend. A hot day transpired as expected this afternoon as ridge of high pressure expanded across the area. High pressure will weaken some Tuesday allowing for some cooling to take shape. The latest model solutions are picking up on an area of instability to the east over the Lower Colorado River Basin. Even with the added moisture heat index should remain below excessive heat criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets in the lower mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley. A weak trough will move through the state that will expand and accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend.
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 High pressure will build over the mid section of the country as a cold front moves from the Ohio Valley to the east coast. An upper level trough of low pressure will pass east through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
641 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Cooler air will continue to move into the area today accompanied by post frontal clouds. Skies will clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves into the area. A cold front was over lower Michigan near Grand Rapids early this morning and was moving south. The front will move across the forecast area early this morning and bring much cooler air with highs today only in the low to mid 70s.
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week. Despite the high clouds overhead. Previous discussion Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited.
Potential for Multiple Rounds of Storms and Heavy Rain Later A secondary cold front will drop southward across the Ozarks today as the region comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft. A drier and cooler airmass will filter into portions the area tonight behind the front especially from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks.
The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight. Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler temperatures in the post-frontal airmass.
412 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Cooler air will continue to move into the area today accompanied by post frontal clouds. Skies will clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves into the area. A cold front was over lower Michigan near Grand Rapids early this morning and was moving south. The front will move across the forecast area early this morning and bring much cooler air with highs today only in the low to mid 70s.
432 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region primarily this afternoon. Mainly dry and cooler weather will follow the front through midweek. Early this morning a surface cold front was moving through western New York as the associated upper level trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes. On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the area.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the Great Basin throughout the week. A weak disturbance moving around the high will spread moisture north across Utah beginning today, with this moisture remaining in place heading into the upcoming weekend.
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. A large area of high pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
as well as a weakening of the four corners high pressure ridge. will result in cooler temperatures across the state.
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A reinforcing cold front moves through today. Cooler for the remainder of the week. Weak cold front to push through the region today. Tonight high pressure builds into the region bringing cooler and drier air into the area. Previous discussion Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited.
A surface area of high pressure located to the Northeast of the state will intensify at the same time.
Models are indicating elevated storms will continue over the southwest part of the area overnight where the short wave trough will move through, which is further west than the earlier model runs indicated. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable air mass in place after tonight's convection and 700 mb ridging on top of that. The upper level flow over the CONUS, for the most part, has been consistent via the model runs over the past 3-4 days; with a ridge in the west, trough in the east and a trough starting to push into the Pacific Northwest.
347 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 The sky was mostly clear overnight, as high pressure continued to build into the region. Early morning temperatures ranged from the low 60s along Highway 20, to the low 70s in far southeast Iowa. Cooler and dry conditions highlight the short term forecast period. For today, cooler air will continue to filter into the forecast area, with 850 mb temps from 8C to 12C from north to south by afternoon. Wednesday, high pressure will begin to move east with a moderating airmass and a modest warm-up from the previous day. Have held the southern counties above guidance in the low 80s.
Upper level ridging has retreated westward, now focused over the southwestern states and northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a weak cold front is evident across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s.
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 High pressure will continue to push south through the northern Plans and upper Midwest today. Models continue to indicate a weak secondary impulse dropping se into the forecast area today ahead of this next push of high pressure. The brunt of the change to cooler and less humid conditions will be felt on later tonight/Wednesday/Wednesday night as the high pressure to our north slips southeast into the mid MS River and OH Valley regions. The high will begin to move off to the east of the forecast area Thu/Thu night, allowing winds to turn more southerly and temps to begin a gradual warming trend.
605 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Aviation A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan as low pressure pulls off to the east. Tonight the clouds will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night.
This will bring light winds and high temperatures around 5 degrees below normal, with readings mostly in the low to mid 70s. The area of high pressure begins to slide off to the southeast tonight with return (southerly) flow ensuing. Low level moisture advection begins to spread toward southwest Minnesota as a Plains trough begins to advance toward the area.
With the increase in convection and overall cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler for the next couple of days.
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday. The cold front will continue to push closer to the region and guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 70s. A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from the west.
328 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Upper-level high pressure centered near the 4-corners and extending into northwest Texas shows little indication of shifting today, leaving our area in weak northeasterly flow aloft. The high-res guidance such as HRRR, RAP, and TTU-WRF all suggest a scattering of small convective cells developing across the area by late morning - although they do show quite a bit of variation in the overall coverage and location.