Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will settle into central Utah today before weakening.
The Northern Rockies will be under zonal flow the next few days, which just means there won't be a trough or a ridge over or near the region dominating the weather.
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure offshore will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
Luckily it's been a nice sunny day thanks to some weak upper ridging.
Very steep mid level lapse rates (700-500 mb around 8 C/km) with FAT CAPE profiles (SBCAPES in excess 3500 J/kg) make very large hail likely - even with a relatively high freezing level and dry sub cloud layer. With wind shear not very impressive (deeper, stronger removed to the north in the cooler air), storms could be more pulsy in nature at the onset - but quickly become severe (within 20-30 min of development).
Strengthening warm air advection along with relatively warm start, primarily in the lower 60s, with afternoon highs into the upper 80s. Thereafter, strong upstream ridging/rexing of TD3 to bring sprawled Canadian high into Great Lakes for rest of forecast period. As ridge moves east to Lower Great Lakes into southeast U. Low pressure passing by north of the Great Lakes in Canada allowed a warm front to push through this morning and turn winds out of the west southwest and for dry air to continue for the rest of today. Heading into tonight, a cold front approaches from the Northern Plains.
302 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Latest Doppler Radar base reflectivity data shows a few thunderstorms moving westward over the lower Straits of Florida, well south of Dry Tortugas National Park. Areas of rain falling from thick altostratus/nimbostratus clouds persist north of the storms, across the lower Straits and extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Dry Tortugas. The wind and the weather will be determined by the interplay between a fledgling tropical cyclone (Cristobal) and its environment over the Bay of Campeche/southern Gulf of Mexico and a lower-tropospheric anticyclone.
1226 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend.
Soundings show that the trough may weaken the cap enough for convective development in the higher terrain especially up north.
The ridge axis, now centered over the Four Corners, will gradually progress east into Wednesday. High-level flow will gradually increase tomorrow afternoon along the downstream portion of the ridge axis and the combination of deep, vertical mixing from strong heating will result in an uncapped environment with MLCAPE increasing to around 1,500 J/kg area-wide.
444 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend.
132 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Weakness in upper ridge over TX today will give way to strengthening ridge from the west on Wednesday.
Lastly, temperatures on Wednesday should be warmer than normal.
High temperatures will be cooler compared to the past few days with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s.
20 (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) An upper level ridge will gradually shift east into our area through the end of this week. This setup would favor a dryline intrusion into our area from the west, with strong 850mb thermal ridge expanding east into our area.
High pressure at the surface stretches from the Atlantic across the southeastern states which is keeping the area in a light and generally east flow early this afternoon. Aloft, a ridge is beginning to push/exit east as a disturbance moves across Texas.
311 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure off the Carolina coast and ridging westward along the Gulf shore will continue to provide us with warm air and a light southwesterly breeze tonight. Low temperatures should mostly be in the middle 60s, but sheltered eastern valleys may still be a few degrees cooler. On Wednesday the high will edge slightly eastward as a cold front approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Mostly dry conditions continue through the afternoon and into tomorrow morning as dry air and high pressure ridging remain in place. Weak isolated showers can still develop this afternoon over northeast Florida, with the highest chances for development occuring over northern central Florida.
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A strong ridging pattern is firmly in control of the region and will be for much of the short range forecast.
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Considerable amount of mid to upper level cloudiness as a result of large circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal located over the lower Bay of Campeche.
Gauge and radar estimates indicate the highest totals continue to be from central Brevard County south, where around 2" with isolated amounts up to 4" have fallen. Expect seasonable overnight lows in the low 70s, except for mid 70s along the immediate Treasure Coast. Breezy winds will diminish on Wednesday, as the high pressure located east of the Florida coast moves further eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. Cooler mid and upper levels will also support a chance of thunder in the afternoon.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail in the wake of the weak trof Wednesday night.
They do not seem to be growing and the lower atmosphere is dry enough that they would have a hard time getting to the surface. Analysis shows a cold front just to the northwest of the forecast area at this time. The cold front is expected to move into the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Even with the cold front moving through the area, the temperatures tonight should remain on the warm side. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be a little cooler and are expected to be mostly in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
/This Afternoon through Wednesday Night/ A weak upper level low currently near the southwestern-most tip of Oklahoma will slowly move east tonight to near Memphis TN by Wednesday afternoon. Vertical ascent from the upper trough is modest at best, but additional development is expected to result in at least widely scattered showers thunderstorms over Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and East Texas the remainder of this afternoon. With the center of the upper trough moving into Tennessee by the afternoon, the best rain chances will be across the northeast half of the area, generally northeast of a line from Toledo Bend Reservoir to Broken Bow OK.
By Wednesday a trough axis will be in the southeastern TX Panhandle and this will provide some focus for storm development.
1145 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 The northern plains remains beneath an upper ridge, while an upper low spins off the coast of CA. With cool air advecting into the area, highs will range from the lower 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 80s across central SD.
A few light showers remain possible this afternoon from the Northern James River Valley into south central North Dakota as a weak mid level trough moves across the area. High pressure will settle over the area tonight, allowing for mostly clear skies and light winds. Because of these conditions, low temperatures tonight were slightly trended toward the lower end of guidance.
Still looks like a mostly sunny afternoon with highs 85-90 as high pressure over South Carolina pumps warm air northward. Surface analysis this morning reveals broad high pressure influencing much of the eastern/southeastern CONUS. Some light echoes have been picked up on radar this morning, but dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is helping to evaporate the precipitation before it even reaches the ground. Upper level ridging will expand into the Ohio Valley, bringing with it much warmer temperatures. Subsidence associated with the ridge and warm air aloft will keep conditions dry today and tonight. Sfc cold front drops south Wednesday night through central Indiana, increasing the chance of showers/storms for southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure aloft over the Southwest will bring a warming trend through Wednesday.
The brunt of scattered convection this afternoon was aligning along and west of Highway 281 closer to a lingering upper trough axis extending north to the Red River. Precip should wane this evening as convective temps are lost, although much of the higher res models are keen on keeping some showers over the waters before approaching the coast by daybreak. However, the coverage of showers and storms is looking less as cyclonic flow high aloft diminishes with the retreating upper trough. Upper ridging then nudges east from northern Mexico, so PWATs should edge lower tomorrow night.
As the upper low continues its northeast journey towards Oklahoma, we are still seeing isolated to scattered showers and occasional storm this afternoon. Ridging moves in from the west and showers tomorrow should be mainly along the Coastal Plains. This upper ridging will keep the forecast mostly dry with increasing temperatures.
As of the time of this discussion a trough of low pressure is located roughly from St. With very little upper level winds we shouldn't see this trough move very much until convection develops along it towards late this afternoon and evening. Wednesday the trough/weak frontal boundary should start to lift back to the north through the day which should switch the winds back to the southwest by the afternoon.
314 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Warm front will lift across our region tonight.
The elevated mixed layer will erode as a slow moving cold front (currently located across central South Dakota down into central Nebraska extending into the panhandle) moves across the area. With the passage of the cold front from the previous day, high temperatures will be about 7 to 10 degrees cooler than the day before. The cold front is expected to stall over Kansas and could even move back into southern Nebraska.
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A strong ridging pattern is firmly in control of the region and will be for much of the short range forecast.
Unsettled and cooler conditions are likely this weekend. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon due to the combination of instability and the passage of a cold front. Weak high pressure and dry weather to start the period.
741 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
Michoud emergency manager reported a sighted funnel cloud over the lower lobe of Lake Borgne by the Great Wall around 330 pm.
516 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 NW low level flow continues this afternoon, in the wake of this morning cold front passage.
714 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Temperature and humidity will increase in the days ahead as high pressure settles offshore.
935 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure ridge axis north of the area will maintain an elevated low level easterly flow across the area tonight. Skies will be mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Easterly winds will persist around 10-15 knots across the waters tonight, with high pressure ridge axis north of the area.
High pressure ridge will remain across the waters through the period with a tropical system possible somewhere in the western Gulf. Moisture from that system will keep high rain chances in the forecast through the period, with winds expected to increase to near advisory level going into the weekend as the pressure gradient increases between the ridge to our east and the tropical system to the west.
Surface dewpoints in that region are in the mid 60s this afternoon, versus in our southeastern counties where dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are now being measured. Weak ridging over the desert southwest, but much of the region in a very broad weak flow.
945 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 An area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting parts of Pine County and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon as a cold front passes through. As the cold front moves southeast tonight, skies will generally start to clear as high pressure moves in from the west. An upper level trough traversing across northern Minnesota tonight may bring some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but otherwise the trend will be clearing out overnight. High pressure will keep the weather quiet on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Cloud cover will begin to increase late Wednesday night ahead of an upper level trough and cold front approaching from the west.
Locally, low level ridging reaches west across North Florida. In fact, the 00Z Nassau (MYNN) RAOB depicted a return of tropical moisture throughout the lower troposphere. An expansive high pressure system over the eastern United States will shift southeastward tonight, with moderate to fresh east breezes persisting across Florida Keys coastal waters. We do expect rain/thunder chances to return to the terminals after 06Z, although the lower levels of the atmosphere need to recover from what was a super dry profile sampled by the 00Z KKEY RAOB.
20 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) An upper level ridge will gradually shift east into our area through the end of this week. This setup would favor a dryline intrusion into our area from the west, with strong 850mb thermal ridge expanding east into our area.
/issued 132 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/ Weakness in upper ridge over TX today will give way to strengthening ridge from the west on Wednesday.
With wind shear not very impressive (deeper, stronger removed to the north in the cooler air), tornado risk appears low at this time.
Drier and warmer conditions remain anticipated for Wednesday, with no further updates planned this evening.
Rain chances will return by tomorrow as an upper level low moves across the northern half of the region. /This Afternoon through Wednesday Night/ A weak upper level low currently near the southwestern-most tip of Oklahoma will slowly move east tonight to near Memphis TN by Wednesday afternoon. Vertical ascent from the upper trough is modest at best, but additional development is expected to result in at least widely scattered showers thunderstorms over Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and East Texas the remainder of this afternoon. With the center of the upper trough moving into Tennessee by the afternoon, the best rain chances will be across the northeast half of the area, generally northeast of a line from Toledo Bend Reservoir to Broken Bow OK.
949 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Current satellite showing some innocuous mid and high cloud overhead as high pressure continues to exert influence over the region. High pressure off the Carolina coast and ridging westward along the Gulf shore will continue to provide us with warm air and a light southwesterly breeze tonight. Low temperatures should mostly be in the middle 60s, but sheltered eastern valleys may still be a few degrees cooler. On Wednesday the high will edge slightly eastward as a cold front approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes.
High pressure off the Carolina coast and ridging westward along the Gulf shore will continue to provide us with warm air and a light southwesterly breeze tonight. Low temperatures should mostly be in the middle 60s, but sheltered eastern valleys may still be a few degrees cooler. On Wednesday the high will edge slightly eastward as a cold front approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes.
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 An area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting parts of Pine County and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon as a cold front passes through. As the cold front moves southeast tonight, skies will generally start to clear as high pressure moves in from the west. An upper level trough traversing across northern Minnesota tonight may bring some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but otherwise the trend will be clearing out overnight. High pressure will keep the weather quiet on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Cloud cover will begin to increase late Wednesday night ahead of an upper level trough and cold front approaching from the west.
skies varying from mostly clear to partly cloudy should continue as a weak upper low remains near the region.
620 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A warm front will slowly move across the commonwealth overnight. Warmer and more humid conditions with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into Wednesday.
High pressure will begin to build back into the area Wednesday and will maintain generally dry conditions and another warming trend through late week.
We will remain between high pressure over the southeast US, and a frontal system well off to our north tonight. A prefrontal trof may also support some convergence.
833 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A warm front will slowly move across the commonwealth overnight. Warmer and more humid conditions with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into Wednesday.
637 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) The weak upper low wobbling northward from the Red River region of southwestern Oklahoma will be responsible for a few showers and maybe thunderstorms later this afternoon in that area. Tomorrow, this upper low will weaken and open, but still provide sufficient lift in the moist airmass for showers/thunderstorms in southeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. As this feature exits east, the upper ridge will build strongly building toward Oklahoma.
958 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
700 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure offshore will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
724 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend.
/Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/ Scattered showers/thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma as weak upper low approaches from the west. Could again see isolated storms develop Wednesday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and west- central Arkansas before upper low shifts east.
219 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 This morning, an upper ridge axis stretches from the coast of Ga northwest across the mid state. As we move through the day, the ridge is expected to break down by late afternoon. Temps will be a degree or two cooler as more in the way of cloud cover and higher pops are expected.
With a southern stream mid and upper level trough extending from the Central Southeast United States expected to dig into the southern Gulf of Mexico before nearly stalling out over the next several days.
High temperatures will be cooler compared to the past few days with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. High temperatures warm back up into the low to upper 90s.
Some of the higher res data suggest a decaying complex of storms may affect parts of N AR later Wed night/early Thu.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow under big ridging. /issued 132 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/ Weakness in upper ridge over TX today will give way to strengthening ridge from the west on Wednesday.
The central Gulf coast will remain under an upper level weakness between upper ridge to the east and west.
In addition a weakness in the deep layer ridge starts to open up as the ridge splits creating a little more instability today. Thunderstorm action kicks into overdrive as the deep layer trough moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley today into the Florida Panhandle Thursday.
Weak ridging over the desert southwest, but much of the region in a very broad weak flow.
1234 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend.
Lastly, temperatures on Wednesday should be warmer than normal. By the weekend upper ridging develops and slides east of the region setting up SW flow aloft.
High pressure centered across the southern Rockies and desert southwest will gradually expand northward late in the week.
925 temps still in the lower 20s celsius so low/mid 80s still looking likely.
212 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 69 85 68 87 / 20 30 60 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 69 85 67 85 / 20 30 50 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 84 67 85 / 20 30 50 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 65 83 64 83 / 10 30 50 40 40.
336 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Early this morning, mid-level ridging was present over the southwest US with mainly zonal flow across the northern two-thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was located over Iowa with a weak attendant surface front slowly moving southeast into southeastern Nebraska and central Kansas. Temperatures across the CWA have only fallen into the low 70s; the warm start will allow for another summer-like day today with highs climbing into the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s.
413 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
The precip may linger into the overnight hours late Thurs/early Fri, though chances diminish as upper air ridging builds into the region at that time.
352 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure overhead, however aloft flow is zonal with a few weak perturbations that will support convection through Thursday. CAMS highlight storm development along a northeast to southwest boundary as it impacts the higher dewpoint air at the edge of this high, from western South Dakota into central North Dakota. Its important to note that severe weather will be limited to the north by a later/lesser degree in influx of moisture/instability while to the south, in the higher dewpoint/higher instability airmass, wind speeds aloft are not quite so strong. Return flow around fast moving high pressure brings near 60 dewpoint air back into central South Dakota by the afternoon. Again, its difficult to discern a 500/700mb wave, however profiles remain unstable enough that the high shear would support the risk for severe storm development.
The elevated mixed layer will erode as a slow moving cold front (currently located across central South Dakota down into central Nebraska extending into the panhandle) moves across the area. With the passage of the cold front from the previous day, high temperatures will be about 7 to 10 degrees cooler than the day before. The cold front is expected to stall over Kansas and could even move back into southern Nebraska. Strengthening of the ridge will allow for advection of a warmer, more moist air mass into the area.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front, with some of the storms potentially becoming severe this afternoon and evening. The early morning convection will tend to dissipate, with additional storms re- developing along the slowly advancing cold front by early afternoon.
By Wednesday a trough axis will be in the southeastern TX Panhandle and this will provide some focus for storm development. Beat The Panhandles will be under a northwest flow aloft on Thursday as the center of an upper level ridge sinks southward into Mexico.
A cold front will drop southeast and remain nearby through the early weekend.
Upper ridging covers the southern U. As humidity increases with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s expect SBCAPE values to climb greater than 2500 j/kg Thursday afternoon south of wherever the outflow boundary sets up.
350 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 High pressure offshore will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
The upper level low centered along the Red River continues to track east while an upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua state of Mexico expands to the east over Texas. Subsidence under the ridge, capping warm mid level temperatures, and drier air aloft gradually take hold.