Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
142 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over the region has brought the region a clear and calm night, with lows dipping into the 40s so far. High pressure will stick around today, support a mostly cloud free day with highs in the 70s, except mid- upper 60s by Lake Superior, and afternoon lake breezes. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
152 PM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Strong high pressure over the Southwest will bring very hot inland weather to the region through the weekend.
1151 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Upper-level ridging will dominate the forecast pattern today with slight height rises noted across the central and northern Rockies.
Dew points Friday will be similar to today with a return of southerly flow not occurring in earnest until late in the day, but the "drier" air will allow high temperatures to be warmer than today, with readings in the lower 90s north and northeast to the upper 90s southwest.
Tomorrow's temperatures are forecast to climb into the low 90s across the southwest part of the state as a low level thermal ridges settles over eastern Montana.
1049 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into northeast CO with a weak low over northwest NE. Combination of afternoon highs/Td/s in the low/mid 60s paint heat indices from 100-105F over south-central SD so will hoist Heat Advisory this afternoon/early evening. Focus will likely be across the higher terrain in the west, then moving across the CWA in the evening.
321 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 The upper level pattern this afternoon consists of an large upper level ridge over much of the western U. S with troughing over the far eastern U. This afternoon we had light winds and temperatures near seasonal averages though it was cooler near the Great Lakes where the lake breeze circulation was dominant. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
As the mid level trough moves through the area, scattered precip will continue through the rest of Friday night.
243 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A weak cold front will continue to dissipate through the end of the week in the Piedmont.
High pressure still not overhead. High pressure finally gets overhead on Friday after many days of waiting. A largely static upper level pattern will remain across the CONUS and Canada with ridging anchored near the Four Corners and various rounds of energy moving east/southeast across the eastern U.
Have maintained generally the higher pops across central GA given where the stalled boundary is and moisture/instability axis looks to remain. The trough over the Great Lakes will dampen, and high pressure will build in over the northern Gulf towards the end of the forecast period, allowing for more isolated to scattered coverage of precipitation.
There will be little change in the upper-level pattern during the short term with troughing in the east and ridging in the west.
/issued 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/ A strong ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners this afternoon with a trough over the Northeast, extending SSW into the Lower MS Valley. North of the front, dewpoints will again mix out into the lower 60s while mid/upper 60s persist on the warm side. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow, topping out in the mid 90s for most areas. Fortunately, the lower dewpoints will keep heat indices below 100F for the most part.
655 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (Tonight) A cold front situated across Central Alabama continues to slide south tonight. This will allow dewpoints to drop into the low to mid 60s overnight and temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 60s.
Building high pressure will provide light winds and mainly clear skies overnight. Overnight lows will be near or just a tad below normal, ranging from around 50 degrees in the NW mtns to the mid 60s in the urban centers of the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure passing overhead will provide sunshine and light winds on Friday. A light southeasterly flow will develop Friday night and begin to draw some low-level moisture into the area, as high pressure pulls to our east. A largely static upper level pattern will remain across the CONUS and Canada with ridging anchored near the Four Corners and various rounds of energy moving east/southeast across the eastern U.
1007 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A weak cold front will continue to dissipate through the end of the week in the Piedmont.
The remnants of Zeta will be interacting with the northern stream jet/encroachment of a cold front to produce widespread rain ovr the Upr OH. Expect one to two inches north to south, with locally higher amounts over the WV ridges.
Temperatures ranged from the low to mid 50s at 3 PM, as a weak cold front drifted southeast through the region, veering winds to the northwest. South of the forecast area, a low pressure system continued it's progression across the Southern Plains, producing a bit of rain for our neighbors in Kansas and Missouri. A light blanket of clouds will help temperatures from dropping too far behind the cold front tonight. Upper ridging will build across the central CONUS, allowing warmer air to build into the region.
126 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 An upper low moves out of southeast New Mexico this morning, across the Texas panhandle region today, and into southeast Oklahoma by Thursday morning. With the more southerly track this system is taking, increasing clouds will affect mainly the southern portion of the forecast area, bringing a chance of light rain to the southern reaches of the forecast area along with temperatures that are slightly cooler than the northern portion of the forecast area. The light rain may mix with light snow this evening as temperatures drop below freezing again.
Winds will be out of the N/NE until a warm front lifts through the terminals this afternoon when winds shift to the E.
Widespread rain is then expected Thursday and Thursday night with low pressure. The continued westerly flow with return flow from the high in the southeast will keep cloud cover over the forecast area through this evening and overnight. Lift and moisture associated with the mentioned moisture from Zeta but also from an emerging trough from the southwest will increase after 06Z tonight with up to a half inch possible in the southern counties expected by dawn. As mentioned in the Near Term, a closed upper low will emerge and lift northeast out of the mid MS Valley region.
Widespread drizzle is occurring over the region, with the lowest visibilities over west Kentucky. , a strong upper low will move from north Texas eastward to just south of the PAH forecast area by midday Thursday. High pressure will build in to our west Thursday night, and clouds will decrease as some chillier air moves into the region. Highs today will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and from the lower 50s to lower 60s Thursday.
313 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Broke out late afternoon zone grouping to emphasize heavy rainfall potential across locations generally south of the I-40 corridor as warm front continues to push northwestward from southeastern portions of mid state region. This is because the weather pattern expected across our area still looks like it will feature an upper level low moving further eastward with the remnants of Hurricane Zeta expected to be just southeast and then east of mid state region as tonight into Thursday morning progress.
Residual moisture wrapping around the slow moving upper level low responsible for our winter storm will help keep some lingering cloud cover through tonight across our northern areas. The low will begin to move toward the Red River Valley tonight as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s, with Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of Southwest Texas below freezing. By Thursday, upper level ridging will return as our low moves further east, bringing drier conditions.
336 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Positively tilted upper trof, and its associated cold front, continues to move through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon. Mid level and surface ridging follow behind the trof/cold front late tonight. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation as the lowest levels of the atmosphere in this area will not be conducive of accumulation. The ridging will hang on through Thursday. The best forcing will be located near the track of the low pressure and have the highest pops over Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin counties as a result.
Dew points are also a little higher here and should help keep temperatures slightly warmer. | The upper low to our south is crossing from New Mexico into Texas today, and it should continue on this path and be approaching southwest Oklahoma Thursday evening. Flow aloft will stay northeasterly as the low moves away.
329 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The upper low to our south is crossing from New Mexico into Texas today, and it should continue on this path and be approaching southwest Oklahoma Thursday evening. Flow aloft will stay northeasterly as the low moves away.
A warming trend will continue into the weekend as high pressure aloft influences the area. Rex block pattern will influence afternoon highs through this weekend, with the ridge portion trending our afternoon highs several degrees above average.
The complicating factor is the cloud cover: if the clouds stick around, it doesn't get as warm (and stays close to forecast); if skies clear out, it's much warmer across the CWA, especially in the west. Generally near and north of a line from Whitewater through Glasgow through Sidney, some sleet and freezing rain may be possible, but light snow is more likely over Daniels and Sheridan Counties - less than half an inch.
601 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 A cold front will cross the region late tonight followed by high pressure on Thursday.
Surface warm front is currently sitting across our northwestern counties with the heaviest rainfall north of the front.
An upper/mid level low pressure system will continue to move east across the north and central Texas tonight.
542 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Upper-level low pressure system continues to spin over the southern high plains this afternoon. Forecast guidance indicates that this upper-level low pressure will translate eastward this evening and overnight, resulting in decreasing upper-level cloud cover over Colorado. The remaining forecast challenge was determining whether or not any low-stratus will develop in the higher-elevation basins including Gunnison and Craig. In addition, a fair amount of snow will have melted by Thursday especially in the lower valleys, which should assist in afternoon high temperature recovery. Forecast guidance again indicates the potential for low stratus on Thursday night, and low clouds have been added to this timeframe in the higher elevation valleys once again.
941 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 A cold front will cross the region late tonight followed by high pressure on Thursday.
Eastern Pacific high pressure will extend over California with this pattern continuing through the weekend.
Precipitation associated with the upper low moving across the southern plains has been slow to move northward.
634 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Positively tilted upper trof, and its associated cold front, continues to move through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon. Mid level and surface ridging follow behind the trof/cold front late tonight. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation as the lowest levels of the atmosphere in this area will not be conducive of accumulation. The ridging will hang on through Thursday. The best forcing will be located near the track of the low pressure and have the highest pops over Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin counties as a result.
High pressure over the region continues to support valley inversions and stagnant air. While temperatures are a bit warmer than yesterday, they are not reaching their full potential thanks to the strong inversions.
859 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 (Issued 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020) Tonight and Thursday: Surface-850 cold front is proggd to slide southward through WI this evening with a decided shift in the winds to the north and northeast. While the bulk of the mid deck associated with the low/waa zone will remain to our north, we are expecting to see lower clouds increase later tonight into Thursday as the lower level thermal trough gets more entrenched across the area. Meanwhile, with the remnants of Zeta heading into the southeast US, this will set up a tightening pressure gradient all the way into our area between that system and a high pressure ridge in the Plains.
616 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Except for northwest Oklahoma, most areas have risen to freezing or just above. Additionally, even after temperatures rise above freezing, gusty winds across the area tonight and tomorrow could result in additional damage in areas where trees have been weakened by ice. As the upper low makes its way across north Texas / southern Oklahoma, wrap around precipitation will pick up across northern Oklahoma overnight. As the upper low departs, rain should end west to east.
1050 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 A strong 500 mb ridge axis is building from just south of Bermuda westward across South Florida. This evening's KEY balloon sounding observed a 500 mb height of 5910 meters, indicating strong high pressure over the area.
IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings will linger through 09-11z before dry, cooler air behind Hurricane Zeta advects across the area, improving conditions to MVFR/VFR.
537 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Precipitation associated with the upper low moving across the southern plains has been slow to move northward.
Broke out late afternoon zone grouping to emphasize heavy rainfall potential across locations generally south of the I-40 corridor as warm front continues to push northwestward from southeastern portions of mid state region. This is because the weather pattern expected across our area still looks like it will feature an upper level low moving further eastward with the remnants of Hurricane Zeta expected to be just southeast and then east of mid state region as tonight into Thursday morning progress.
The reprieve will be brief as the strong upper level low pressure that has been giving us the wet weather over the past few days will track across southern Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow morning. As the low tracks across the area, it is likely that another band of moderate showers will set up over mainly northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In addition to the heavy rain, strong northwest winds will begin to pick up after midnight across northeast Oklahoma as the low moves across the area.
High pressure will remain over the western United States over the next several days.
May keep cloud cover near and north of the I-30 Corridor tonight but closer to the I-20 Corridor and points south, clouds will clear tonight and even though the pressure gradient will remain strong resulting in some strong winds, CAA is strong ahead of this upper level trough to our west and therefore temperatures will plummet quickly. What may take a little longer is the low cloud cover as we are currently dealing with mostly LIFR/IFR ceilings areawide. Will watch this closely through the evening but do believe where clouds scatter out late tonight/early in the morning, they will fill back in with the arrival of the upper level trough. Look for W to WNW winds near 10kts overnight and sustained at those speeds on Thursday with gusts upwards of 24kts with the arrival of the upper trough itself.
Following the passage of a strong low pressure system, Thursday highs will reach to around normal and into the 80s over the lower deserts.
536 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 H5 ridge continues to stretch across the southwest today, keeping weather systems deflected well to the north.
1021 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 H5 ridge continues to stretch across the southwest today, keeping weather systems deflected well to the north.
310 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 A quieter and warmer day is on tap today as our winter storm system moves further away from West Texas. Cloud cover will also depart the region as the low heads toward the Mississippi Valley. Sunny skies this afternoon will mark temperatures beginning their rebound from this week's cold with highs expected to be mostly in a range from 45 to 55 degrees - warmer than recent days but still well below normal.
cooler temperatures today. and extent of any light snow/freezing drizzle Thursday night. A cold front pushed through the area overnight accompanied by clouds and some brisk northwest winds. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system continues to impact Oklahoma/Texas. The HRRR and NAM do try to have some spotty precip with the low level saturdation this morning. so it would be sprinkles or freezing sprinkles. The clouds and colder air with hold temperatures to well below the normal high in the lower 50s. Most models show a signal for light snow, however they vary on the extent into the forecast area due to the dry air in the low levels and focus of forcing.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Thursday, high pressure will begin to settle across the area with dry conditions and warmer temperatures, though we will still remain below seasonal norms.
221 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 This morning, the closed upper level low, which is the catalyst for this current round of precipitation, is evident on water vapor imagery across the Red River Valley. This upper low will continue to trek east moving into Arkansas this afternoon.
306 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Intense upper level low along the Red River/south central OK/north TX will move east through southern AR this morning. Warm air/instability aloft wrapping around the low is producing a band of convection from the TX/OK Panhandles to eastern KS with some embedded thunderstorms. As the upper low shifts east we should see clearing move in from the west and northwest this afternoon and evening.
241 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper low along the Red River valley. Ridging off the CA coast had the mean westerlies over the Pacific Northwest and into the northern plains. At the surface, an inverted trough of low pressure extended west from the remnants of Zeta into the Ozarks and northern OK. Weak high pressure was seen over the northern plains. The 00Z NAM appears to be having some difficulty with the boundary layer keeping it saturated and cooler than other guidance. This may help mixing across north central KS and keep lows in the lower 30s while eastern counties fall into the upper 20s and around 30.
1009 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Positively tilted upper trof, and its associated cold front, continues to move through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon. Mid level and surface ridging follow behind the trof/cold front late tonight. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation as the lowest levels of the atmosphere in this area will not be conducive of accumulation. The ridging will hang on through Thursday. The best forcing will be located near the track of the low pressure and have the highest pops over Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin counties as a result.
348 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Primary concern for the short term revolves around the low stratus and potential for fog overnight into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings show decent lift in the lower levels and only a brief window near sunrise where this lift abates and dew point depressions drop. This low stratus is also leading to lower confidence in today's high temperature forecast. Have trended today's temps upward, into the low to middle 50s west of Highway 83, where clearing looks most probable by this afternoon.
The saturation of that warmer air aloft is leading to the hugely anomolous precipitable water values.
This actually sent a cold front into the region and by 8z was already through about 2/3rds of the CWA. Cooler and much drier air will accompany this cold front and it will lead to well below normal through the remainder of the work week and still quite comfortable over the weekend.
As the system continues to move northeast, some of the higher elevations along the plateau could see a couple isolated gusts up to 35 mph through the morning hours. For the rest of the area, we are sandwiched between Zeta and the upper low sitting over northern TX and southern OK. Additional rainfall from the upper low/cold front which will move through Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening will be light with total QPF of 0. Showers associated with the cold front should move east of the Cumberland Plateau after midnight.
A vigorous southern stream mid-level trof ejects eastward over the Lower MS River Valley Thursday and makes steady eastward progress over the southeast US Thursday night. This feature supports the passage of a strong cold front Thursday, which brings drier and cooler air to the local area in its wake.
Upstream ridge over the west coast moves eastward today which maintains the northwest flow but does allow heights to build over the area and temperatures to warm.
(Today and tonight) Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is expected to move out of northern Oklahoma, diminish, and skirt across central Oklahoma around daybreak as the upper low continues eastward along the Red River area of southeastern Oklahoma. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, but observation sites continue to report light snowfall there.
227 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2020 The upper low centered over Texas and Oklahoma will be moving off to the east today.
Surface warm front is currently sitting across our northwestern counties with the heaviest rainfall north of the front. Chances for showers as well as remnants of Zeta and an approaching cold front will change cigs/vis/winds quite a bit over the TAF period. Expecting VCSH until the cold front brings rain back from west to east during the afternoon and evening.
High pressure will bring sunny, mild afternoons and cool, clear nights through the remainder of the week. Today's high temperatures were mostly in the 70s and lower 80s, and anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than seasonal averages. Little change is expected on Thursday, except for a few degrees of warming as an upper ridge centered offshore along 130W edges closer to the coast.
Temperatures were much warmer compared to this time 24 hours ago, with 2 AM values ranging from 36 in Savanna and Independence, to 45 In Iowa City. Meanwhile, a weak cold front was just entering eastern Iowa at this hour from the northwest, and will be our primary weather concern for the short term period. The cold front will continue advancing south through the morning, leaving behind cool north flow across the area. These will reflect pretty easily on our temperatures, with afternoon highs expected in the low/mid 40s and lows tonight near 30.
Updated wind speed and gust grids warranted the issuance of a High Wind Warning for Marshall and DeKalb counties between 07-11Z, and sustained winds will likely reach 40-45 MPH with gusts of 60-65 MPH (especially along higher ridge tops in this region). A cold upper low now over West Texas (that in part earlier helped to produce wintry weather over the Rockies and adjacent plains), will move east and bring colder air to the region.
1133 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Upper-level low pressure system continues to spin over the southern high plains this afternoon. Forecast guidance indicates that this upper-level low pressure will translate eastward this evening and overnight, resulting in decreasing upper-level cloud cover over Colorado. The remaining forecast challenge was determining whether or not any low-stratus will develop in the higher-elevation basins including Gunnison and Craig. In addition, a fair amount of snow will have melted by Thursday especially in the lower valleys, which should assist in afternoon high temperature recovery. Forecast guidance again indicates the potential for low stratus on Thursday night, and low clouds have been added to this timeframe in the higher elevation valleys once again.