Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Recent satellite imagery indicates the upper level low across the northwest Bahamas continuing to track to the southwest and the tropical wave continues to track west with most of the active convection now concentrated across the Straits. Later on Tuesday regional easterly winds are forecast to subside as the ridge across south Florida begins to weaken and the pressure gradient weakens and the threat of rip currents will subside. Through this period an upper level ridge will build into the central CONUS while an upper level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS and Atlantic waters. The global models are now indicating that the ridge will weekly extend across the Florida peninsula by mid-week and keep the trough axis off the Atlantic sea board with the trough having little if any impact on South Florida through this period.
307 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure currently over Lake of the Woods coupled with an amplifying upper ridge over western ND will bring a continuation of dry weather in the short term period.
(from prev discussions) A ridge axis of high pressure over the WRN Atlantic will remain near to north of the area going into mid week with a deeper easterly flow remaining across the region.
618 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
Moisture will continue to seep northward into western and central New Mexico today and Tuesday as the center of high pressure aloft remains to our east.
Highs will remain in the low-mid 90s across our inland areas, with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage through the afternoon.
328 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
An upper ridge will amplify across the plains and then shift eastward this week.
314 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will exit the area early this evening. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower and middle 60s.
and this potential will also likely trend down by late week as the upper high is centered nearly overhead.
132 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 fast flow on the se periphery of the pac ne upper low continues to support weak impulses in sw flow. massive conus ridge will build into the plains tue. Upper level ridge over the Central CONUS will remain nearly stagnant for most of the week.
Strong high pressure centered over mid section of the CONUS will keep light to moderate E to SE winds in place during the day.
Although moisture is increasing today, the low levels still remain dry with fire weather concerns as lightning and gusty outflow winds can lead to new fire starts or exacerbate already present conditions. High pressure will remain over the central Plains with a low pressure trough positioned over the Pacific Northwest, allowing sub-tropical moisture to be drawn into the Four Corners region through much of the week.
339 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Little change to going forecast - high pressure ridge to continue across the region into the weekend. Some hope for convection this evening across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and extreme northwest Texas Panhandle with a weak trough as triggering mechanism.
Upper anticyclone has taken over, with 500 mb heights of 597-598 dm. Thunderstorms firing near Raton Pass, NM this afternoon will expand in coverage and spread NE across eastern Colorado into NW Kansas this afternoon and evening, on the periphery of the upper level ridging and associated capping. High confidence that all locations will be dry, as upper high expands and pushes moisture plume further westward into Colorado.
Cold front oozes south late tonight and Tuesday morning. Upper level high pressure dominates for the remainder of work week with hotter afternoon temperatures. since the cold front is still in nrn Ohio and nrn Indiana at 17z. 850 mb temperatures are a few degrees cooler Tuesday over northern WV.
541 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. High pressure should bring dry and increasingly hot weather through much of the rest of the week. The cold front is slowly trudging southeastward into western Pennsylvania at this hour with isolated showers forming along it as it does so.
An upper level trough offshore will maintain slightly below normal temperatures across the interior through mid week. The trough will also keep cloud cover plentiful for coastal areas through mid week. Deep marine layer conditions will most likely persist through mid week as an upper trough remains offshore the Northern California coast. There will probably be minor fluctuations in the depth as weak short waves rotate around the base of the trough through mid week. High temperature across the interior will continue on a downward trend today as the upper trough digs offshore. Max temperatures in the interior will probably change little from today on Tuesday as the offshore trough maintain the deep marine.
Water vapor imagery showing a wave rounding the ridge into southern Wyoming and northern Colorado, which will be the likely culprit in getting low to mid level winds to veer overnight.
339 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Upper high centered over the southern plains and a frontal boundary is located over the midwest. A very weak low level trough appears to be in place over our southwestern areas and this is helping to produce the convection that is occurring across that portion of the cwa.
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Upper level high pressure will begin to strengthen and build over the central United States. Hot and humid conditions can therefore be expected again today with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Low temperatures tonight should be very similar to those of early this morning with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
The main impact through the forecast period will continue to reside with a prolonged heat wave as upper-level ridging builds overhead and across much of the Central Plains.
147 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Early afternoon satellite and RAP upper level analysis shows large scale ridge entrenched across the central US, with monsoonal flow in across through the central Rockies. A warm front is slowly progressing northward over our CWA and is still roughly south of I-70. Early this afternoon-Tonight: Warm front has been slower to lift north than models had previously indicated, however a strong CAP in place is limiting initiation within frontal zone. Tuesday: Ridge continues to amplify shifting main flow further west away from our CWA. Temperatures will trend upwards with strengthening of the ridge and increasing southerly flow with high temperatures at least in the upper 90s for most locations and near 100 (to the low 100s) in our north and east.
Cold front oozes south late tonight and Tuesday morning. Upper level high pressure dominates for the remainder of work week with hotter afternoon temperatures. since the cold front is still in nrn Ohio and nrn Indiana at 17z. 850 mb temperatures are a few degrees cooler Tuesday over northern WV. Cold front in the Ohio River vicinity at the start of the period.
Think tomorrow entire sea breeze could be a bit more active with slightly cooler mid levels. Highs tomorrow should be a degree or two cooler than today with the additional convection expected.
346 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will track southeast across the area late this afternoon into this evening.
142 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Aviation High pressure will build in today bringing fair and dry weather which will last through Tuesday. A warm front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the week. The cold front will be clearing the forecast area this morning and the showers and storms should be exiting the SE CWA by around 9 am. Sfc ridging building in to bring fair and drier weather with near normal temperatures for today through Tuesday.
301 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will move south through the Great Lakes today, and south of the Ohio River on Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the region for the mid part of the week, bringing drier weather and near seasonable temperatures. As the cold front pushes into the area this evening PWATs will start to quickly fall from around 1.
The next few days will see expansive and strong ridging take control of the central portion of the country. It is hard to go as low as those numbers are indicating, but will take a cue and trim our overnight probability to the lower end of chance.
1104 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge amplifying into the nrn rockies. Short wave trof ahead of the ridge is moving through the nrn plains with isold convection ongoing from just east of the Blkhls into scntrl SD. Upper ridge shifts ewd into the nrn plains with thermal profiles suggesting temps will rise into the 90s across much of the cwfa. Short wave moving into the ridge later in the day will result in sct convection developing from nern WY through the Blkhls into swrn SD. Thermal ridge builds ewd into the cwfa with temps pushing well into the 90s to lower 100s. Upper level ridge of high pressure will be well established across the central CONUS by mid-week, with very hot and mainly dry conditions expected.
133 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a broad trough over central Canada into the Great Lakes and a broad 500 mb ridge over the southern U. The ridge builds into the northern plains and Canadian prairies this forecast period with a trough digging into the ern U. Nam does show some qpf moving across the far western cwa late tonight, but it is the only model to do so and is trying to break out pcpn in a ridge. Southerly winds off Lake Michigan will help keep temps a bit cooler over the east but temps will still be in the 80s.
137 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure aloft will strengthen over the central and southern plains during the first part of this week, then expand westward to center over California and Nevada by the weekend.
153 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 A 5h anticyclone is centered INVOF SW KS with a mid level theta-e minimum across much of the CWFA, including the w. The upper ridge will remain to the n Wed. A minor shrtwv trof in the mid level ely flow is progged to track w across the PB Tue evening and may result in a few -SHRA. Said anticyclone will develop wwd starting Thur and will mostly result in high temps increasing a few degrees, probably back into the triple digits across most of the area.
307 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level ridge over the central Great Plains will allow for a nice fetch of subtropical moisture to remain over the cwa through Tuesday. the upper ridge will remain parked over KS/OK with a weaker south/southwesterly flow aloft over CO.
356 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 12Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a NW flow aloft over the wrn Great Lks btwnan upr rdg over the wrn Plains into Saskatchewan and a trof axis extending fm closed lo over Hudson Bay into the ern Lks. Some diurnal cu/sc have blossomed away fm lk moderation and in still rather moist llvl airmass under h85 thermal trof /12Z h85 temps were as lo as 8C over nrn Upr MI/. Southerly winds off Lake Michigan will help keep temps a bit cooler over the east but temps will still be in the 80s.
417 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Showers have remained small and fairly isolated today with a suppressive 500mb ridge and high heights in place.
403 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms through this evening.
A warming trend is then forecast for the second half of the week and into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. An upper level trough remains positioned along much of the west coast with the center of the feature off of the Washington and Oregon Coast. As the trough moves little in the next 24 to 48 hours, expecting daytime temperatures to remain on the cool side of seasonal averages through midweek along with continued overnight and morning cloudiness. By late week, the upper level trough will shift inland while a mid/upper level ridge over the center portion of the country builds westward. As high pressure builds aloft, temperatures will begin a warming trend that will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.
Rain chances will be on the decrease for the remainder of the week, as an upper level ridge, that will become centered over the Southern Plains, develops and strengthens. This ridge will become the dominant weather player for the forecast area, bringing an increase in subsidence, creating capping in the atmosphere, and thus decreasing convective activity to isolated at best.
Cooler than normal temperatures along with overnight clouds and patchy fog are expected to persist through Tuesday. Much warmer temperatures are possible by the upcoming weekend.
Hot and breezy conditions expected to continue into Thu as southwest flow aloft persists ahead of an upper trof off the Pac NW coast. The upper trof sweeps inland Thu night and turns the upper flow more westerly. Winds will once again be breezy Wed-Fri with some potential for additional Red Flag conditions, particularly Thu-Fri with the passage of an upper-level trough and subsequent passage of an attending dry cold front.
With high pressure over the area through the short term, hot and generally dry weather will continue with a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms over the mountains most days, with little activity elsewhere.
With upper high centered over the Southern/Central Plains during this period, and no real low-level convergence features expected to impact eastern KS, expect dry weather to continue. A stout upper-level ridge will continue to be center of the central United States through the end of the week.
/issued 416 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry again as upper ridging continues. Highs are expected in the upper 90s to 100, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
(Issued 1059 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016) Temps are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday with current obs reading upper 80s across the TN Valley. The upper-level ridge will continue to build into the southeast today, placing the TN Valley on the eastern edge. Subsidence is not strong enough to keep out the cloud cover or chance of rain but will warm up temps into the lower 90s.
247 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms through this evening.
345 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Early afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis indicate building mid-level heights from the central High Plains into the lee of the Canadian Rockies, downstream from an upper low over the northeast Pacific. In the low levels, weak warm advection atop a composite boundary (combination of outflow and the synoptic front) has maintained regenerative thunderstorm development over portions of east-central and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Current thinking is that low-level flow will become increasingly divergent late this afternoon into evening owing to the continued deepening of a lee trough over the High Plains, potentially signaling an end to this convective activity.
The high resolution models are trying to kick off isolated convection along this boundary this afternoon and into tonight. The mid level ridge axis will pass over the forecast area tomorrow afternoon.
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region and upper level ridge over the eastern Rocky Mountains. Latest 08z surface analysis indicates weak cold front extending from near Lake Superior into central Iowa and high pressure over southwest Minnesota and Dakotas. 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF show subtle differences on strength and placement of moisture transport/convergence in association with weak impulse overtopping upper level ridge.
Continued unsettled weather through this week into this High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will slowly weaken while remaining nearly stationary tonight through rest of this week. The high is also allowing for low level troughs to move west northwest from the Atlantic waters through South Florida and into the Gulf Of Mexico. The next low level trough just east of the Bahamas will continue to move west northwest and move through South Florida late tonight into Tuesday bringing in another surge of moisture to South Florida.
The cold front will slowly pass through the area Tuesday through Tuesday night.
A ridge will build over the Plains Tue through Thurs supporting temps in the 90s to lower 100s.
246 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 The forecast area will remain on the southwest flank of an upper ridge that is centered from SE Kansas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozark Plateau. Given trends of the last couple of weeks will trend toward the warmer end MOS. Dome of high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern as we march toward record heat for July.
Otherwise temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with light southeast winds. the upper ridge will be firmly in control over the central and southern Plains although there will be deep east- southeast flow across North Texas.
Strong upper level high pressure will settle across the southern plains through the near term period with northeasterly upper level flow across the region. Weakening high pressure will be East/Northeast of the region this period. Fairly weak high pressure ridge will remain Northeast of the region this period, leading to mainly onshore flow. Ridge position to the north this week will maintain east to southeast winds around 10 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet.
245 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. High pressure should bring dry and warm weather through much of the rest of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening with the approach of a cold front, though with upper support lacking and warming mid levels should help to limit coverage. Any showers/storms should diminish overnight as the cold front completes it's passage.
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Main concern for this afternoon will be sky and temps as high pressure over the area gives us a fairly sunny day, although CU is developing over portions of NW Minnesota.
354 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will push offshore overnight.
309 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 500 mb ridge will dominate the plains next several days with no significant boundaries in the region until perhaps late in the weekend.
131 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will diminish Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front.
341 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front across the central lakes will push across the area tonight.
Swath of low level warming and a branch of the low level jet will help this area become a focus for shower/storm develop. Model trends here favor the higher pcpn chances from far eastern MN eastward through WI. Upper level ridge builds across the region for the later 1/2 of the work week. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected. with little relief thu night as lows will only dip into the low to mid 70s. Resulting afternoon heat indices from the temp/td combination for thu climb into the low to mid 100s.
Heights will continue building on Tuesday as the upper high strengthens across the central plains.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s, with lows tonight and Tuesday night around 60.
426 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will pass through the area overnight.
Surface analysis shows a warm front draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon. There are already a few thunderstorms on the high plains this afternoon. An upper level ridge will build on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer than today for most locations. The only problem with this is if there is lingering precipitation and clouds in the morning, it could slow down the heating a little and keep temperatures a bit cooler. Through the remainder of the work week, the upper level ridge will continue across the area and high temperatures will be a few degrees either side of 100 degrees.
Ridge aloft and absence of low-level boundaries will result in VFR conditions across all terminal locations next 24 hours, with minor diurnal variations in wind speed and direction. The highest temperatures will occur mainly in western Oklahoma and western north Texas while the highest heat indices may occur east of I-35 over the next several days.
Eventually, the low clouds will break up late tonight, but only to be replaced by upper level clouds ahead of our next system. Forecast soundings do show this inversion eroding late tonight as low develops off the East Coast and high pressure pushes eastward. Good news is that models have trended much further south with this system, as the low track is forecast to exit the coast south of Delmarva and head due east out to sea.
A trough of cold air is firmly in place over the northwest US, including the northern Rockies.
200 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Water vapor shows short wave racing across southern Canada, with surface analysis showing associated cold front diving through western SD. Main upper trof is located along the west coast with notable jet streak near SLC. Very dry and windy conditions across much of the cwfa early this afternoon, with lowest relative humidity across far southwest SD ahead of the cold front. Cold front will continue diving south tonight, stalling out over southeast WY.
A brief break in the showers/thunderstorms may occur here over the next few hours and into the afternoon for the southern half as the warm front approaches. Warm front is still off to the south, and the question will be how far north the front will move this afternoon. A warm front is currently lifting northward across Middle Tennessee and will likely make it to around I-40 before a cold front quickly moves in from the NW. The HRRR shows a line of storms forming along or just ahead of the cold front, and have timed the storms according to the HRRR progs.
North of the associated warm front, scattered showers and storms were developing early this morning across southern/southeastern Kansas, with the northern extent of the precipitation skimming across east central KS. Cloud cover will finally start to scatter out during the afternoon from west to east across the CWA, and it should allow for high temperatures to rise into the mid 50s over eastern KS to the low 60s into central KS. Dry conditions are expected through tonight with increasing scattered cloud cover helping to keep low temperatures a bit warmer in the 40s.
An upper level low will slowly slide south and then east across portions of the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday.
1034 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Low pressure will pass south of the region tonight into Wednesday with its associated precipitation moving through our area.
The upper pattern remains quasi-zonal across the bulk of the CONUS with the upper wave working east of the area allowing for surface ridging from northeast of the area to work back in with a more east to slight northeasterly component allowing for low levels to dry out a bit more. Tomorrow, with with heights rising slightly and southwest breeze, have highs pushing into the low 70s which looks to be on track. Through mid week, quiet weather overall continues with dry and mostly pleasant conditions as high generally range in the 60s with a broad ridge in place.
Latest surface analysis places the cold front somewhere over southeast Arkansas but its exact location is tough to pick out with ongoing convection and intermittent surface observation issues. Temperatures do range from the lower 50s along the Missouri border to the lower 70s over the southeast at this time. Broken line of precipitation associated with an advancing cold front continues to move through southern Arkansas at this time.
Cool, showery weather will continue Wednesday as an upper trough moves in from the west.