Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
303 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 302 PM CDT After the warmest first two weeks of October on record, today's cooler conditions will kick off the first stretch of real autumn weather through Saturday night. The showers have been driven by impinging upper trough and jet dynamics in the vicinity of elevated baroclinic zone, which is also contributing a decent f-gen response (owing to banded nature of some of the showers). The showers will end and exit from the later evening into early overnight as upper trough pushes east and much drier air advects in.
255 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 High pressure building to the west and lee-side troughing over central Montana will cause surface pressure gradients to tighten this evening and overnight. Winds will gradually decrease on Saturday as the ridge axis slowly shifts east over the region.
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Strong cold front will continue to move through south central Missouri this afternoon. Potential then for spotter showers will end from west to east during the late afternoon into early evening as an upper level trough and associated lift shifts eastward and drier air advects southward. with cooler readings expected near the Plateau. While some cooler temps will be possible in sheltered areas. High pressure will build into the region over the weekend resulting in a cool day tomorrow and another cold night Saturday night.
A weak cold front continues to make slow progress into areas of southeast KS. For the morning hours expect the cold front to continue to push southeast into NE OK, a little before sunrise. Expect a chilly and clear night tonight, as the ridge axis moves over the area. (A little trivia, the last time most locations fell into the upper 30s was May 5th) Some areas of central KS could even see some frost on elevated surfaces, as the main ridge axis passes over the region, so will mention some patchy frost, but do not think the front will be widespread enough for a Frost advisory. Looks like a nice weekend will be on tap, as the ridge axis slides south of the area, basically cutting off any kind of moisture return into KS.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Tonight is the night that the cold front comes through Deep South Texas! Models are in good agreement for the timing of the front to move through around 06- 12z Saturday, however, the CWA will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms before the front this Friday evening. We will also see a cooler than average Saturday evening as northerly winds die down and temperatures drop to the mid 50s and 60s for the CWA.
324 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 302 PM CDT After one of the warmest first two weeks of October on record, today's cooler conditions will kick off the first stretch of real autumn weather through Saturday night. The showers have been driven by impinging upper trough and jet dynamics in the vicinity of elevated baroclinic zone, which is also contributing a decent f-gen response (owing to banded nature of some of the showers). The showers will end and exit from the later evening into early overnight as upper trough pushes east and much drier air advects in.
By tomorrow, a weak cold front is forecast to move across the region bring cloudy skies, cooler weather, breezy northwest winds, and a limited chance for precipitation.
A cold front will bring improving conditions to the region today from NW to SE. /Issued 1046 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ Cold front is marching southeast across the region this morning, stretching from northwest Arkansas down into southeast Oklahoma. Moist air, with dewpoints in the low 70s, is lifting north ahead of the front into far SE OK and SW AR.
1046 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Cold front is marching southeast across the region this morning, stretching from northwest Arkansas down into southeast Oklahoma. Moist air, with dewpoints in the low 70s, is lifting north ahead of the front into far SE OK and SW AR. Gusty north to northwesterly winds will develop mid to late morning behind the cold front, dropping off after sunset. The strongest of the storms should be east of the area by sunrise, but a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may linger for a few hours today as a cold front pushes southeast across the area.
222 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper-level trough is making its way across the central United States today resulting in broad southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures are expected to cool into the low 30s in central Wisconsin to the upper 30s/low 40s along the Mississippi River. Winds aloft transition to northwesterly as we round the base of the upper-level trough in the afternoon.
(18Z TAFS) A cold front has moved through the area veering the prevailing wind out of the north. (This afternoon through Saturday night) A cold front has progressed through the region bringing cooler temperatures and a breezy north wind today. Clear skies and strong radiational cooling will aid in temperatures nearing freezing on the Caprock tomorrow morning. Freezing temperatures could impact local agriculture.
142 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A ridge of high pressure remains in control across the SE CONUS as a trough axis propagates eastward across the Great Plains. As the trough continues its eastward progression, some intensification is expected, along with a tilt in the negative direction. This should allow an attendant cold front to work down into our area and bring a noticeable change to our weather starting late in the weekend.
This convection should be in very close proximity to a strong surface cold frontal passage. High pressure influences surface and aloft will build across mid state region as weekend into first part of next work week progresses.
Guidance for Hill City is sub-freezing and near freezing for Russell and Hays.
1147 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front tracking across the region this morning will bring cooler, dry, and gusty conditiions to the area today, with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph this afternoon. Much cooler air will remain over the area through tonight, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s.
The large trough has moved well to the east, leaving just a few clouds near the northern Colorado mountains at this hour. As previously mentioned, high pressure starts to build in overnight, leaving us drier with mostly clear skies. High pressure dominates Saturday and Saturday night leading to a slight warm up but otherwise quiet fall weather in the short term.
Current southwesterly winds will become more northwestward overnight as a cold front moves through the area.
Upper level analysis places ridge starting to work over the Rockies, while a trough remains over the upper midwest into the central plains. Upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Saturday, bringing the start of a warming trend to the area. Ridge passes over for the start of the week, resulting in seasonably mild temperatures and quiet conditions.
108 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Upper ridging will develop across the region heading into the weekend. Large scale subsidence will drive mainly dry weather conditions as well as warmer temperatures.
246 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A pretty quiet forecast for the next few days as northwest flow shifts off to the east and upper-level ridging builds in for the weekend. Also, warmer temperatures will mix down with the wind; therefore, increased the hourly temperatures for the northern half of that zone. High pressure builds in for Saturday which cause the forecast area to warm up to more seasonal level while drying out.
Currently, a broad upper level trough has been working through the area with the main axis passing overhead by later this afternoon. A broad low amplitude ridge over the Pacific Northwest should amplify as it tracks east. Dewpoints are in the low 30s over north central KS right now with lower 40s over east central areas. Temperatures are in the lower 60s and likely won't get too much of a bump over the next couple hours with the CAA continuing to offset any insolation effects. A few areas outside of the advisory could see frost in the low lying areas, but a slight breeze should remain overnight helping to keep the near surface layer slightly mixed which should inhibit temperatures from dropping lower.
421 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. Temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday. A strong cold front will approach the region overnight, reaching the far western portions of the forecast area around or shortly after 06z. The cold front will be near the eastern CWA border by 12Z Saturday. However, the the trough axis will slowly swing through the region on Saturday. Lobes of vorticity within the trough will support scattered rain showers for most of the day.
222 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 As advertised, a broken cloud line developed along portions of the Lower Keys in the late morning and early afternoon hours. A longwave trough and associated cold front will approach the Florida Peninsula tonight through Saturday. Folks looking for autumn- like temperatures in the Keys will have to wait for later fronts, as temperatures will remain largely unchanged with the frontal passage and dewpoints will only drop a few degrees (into the low 70s). A strong area of high pressure will build across the Eastern United States, with the ridge axis penetrating the Southeast.
The HRRR continues to develop convection from central Arkansas northeastward into the Purchase Area around 00Z right as the real cold front arrives there. While all of this is going on, forcing with the approaching upper trough will result in widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder over most of the region into the evening hours. The other story is the gusty northwest winds expected this evening behind the cold front.
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A strong, Canadian high pressure system is building into the region this afternoon and evening. This will pushing the cold front further to the east and bring in cooler and much drier air.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper trof bisecting the CONUS continues to churn ewd this aftn, driving its associated cold front to our door. Trof/cold front to continue their ewd march this aftn/evening, perhaps bringing a few storms for N LA and S AR. Temps will drop quickly in the wake of the front, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass that will linger through the end of the pd. High pressure to settle swd behind the trof Saturday, making for very pleasant fall weather and setting up Saturday night to be our coolest so far this season.
Elsewhere, mid level cloud cover has made for a mostly gloomy-looking day, but high pressure will begin to build over the Northern Rockies tonight into Saturday. As a result, this weekend will be much drier, much sunnier, and much warmer.
High pressure will weaken over the region as it moves to the southeast Tonight. A cold front will move into far western counties late Saturday morning, then slowly move southeast across area through Saturday evening. The front should be to the southeast around midnight Saturday night, with high pressure building from the northwest overnight. Noticeably cooler and drier air will advect into region following the front. Lows Saturday night will range from the lower to mid 50s inland, to the lower to mid 60s far south and near the NE FL coast. In general, low temperatures Saturday night will be about 30 to 35 degrees cooler than Saturdays highs.
Light winds with VFR conditions will be the rule overnight and Saturday as high pressure aloft builds over NM. A weak backdoor frontal push is making its way southward along the TX border as an upper trough exits to the east this morning. This observation coupled with weak southerly winds forecast tonight further erodes confidence that overnight lows will reach freezing through the eastern plains.
1110 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A cold front will move through this afternoon, bringing a widespread potential for severe weather to the Mid-South today. Currently a line of showers with a few embedded weak thunderstorms is located along or just south of the Interstate 40 corridor associated with a prefrontal trough. WPC QPF may be on the low side at around 0. The weekend and most of the upcoming work week looks much cooler and dry.
1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The longwave trough is currently pushing through the plains, and the cold front positioned from Lane to Durant. Latest radar loops show light showers skirting northern Oklahoma as the upper trough axis advances across the area. Current temperatures/dewpoint temperatures range from the low 50's/upper 30s (northwest Oklahoma) to the low 70s/upper 60s (southeast Oklahoma), respectively. Thompson (Today and tonight) Showers/storms will exit eastern/southeast portions of forecast area by daybreak and areas of fog across southern portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas will also decrease as winds pick up and drier air arrives behind cold front.
A ridge of high pressure will bring us a warm and dry conditions this weekend.
1207 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The longwave mid-level trough which has dictated weather across the region over the past several days finally shifted east of the area overnight. The drying trend will continue today as the longwave trough shifts farther eastward. A ridge of high pressure builds over the West tonight which will help clear any remaining clouds from the area. Strong radiational cooling working with the cold airmass left in the wake of the exiting storm is expected to bring another round of widespread freezing conditions to the lower valleys. The ridge moves overhead on Saturday as the pattern remains progressive with another longwave trough approaching the West Coast. High pressure remains centered over the forecast area at the beginning of the medium range forecast period.
1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 - Much Cooler today, highs in the upper 50s to around 60 F.
Boxell (Issued 214 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021) Saturday night through Friday: Temperatures tomorrow night will fall into the mid to upper 30s as the ridge axis begins to approach from the west, and winds diminish.
Strong cold front will continue to move through south central Missouri this afternoon. Potential then for spotter showers will end from west to east during the late afternoon into early evening as an upper level trough and associated lift shifts eastward and drier air advects southward. with cooler readings expected near the Plateau. While some cooler temps will be possible in sheltered areas. High pressure will build into the region over the weekend resulting in a cool day tomorrow and another cold night Saturday night.
Dry and mild conditions continue on Saturday as the ridge axis moves through the area.
Upper level ridging will build across the region this weekend.
455 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A pretty quiet forecast for the next few days as northwest flow shifts off to the east and upper-level ridging builds in for the weekend. Also, warmer temperatures will mix down with the wind; therefore, increased the hourly temperatures for the northern half of that zone. High pressure builds in for Saturday which cause the forecast area to warm up to more seasonal level while drying out.
506 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The main story this afternoon and tonight is the high winds between Arlington and Elk Mountain along Interstate 80. Skies are expected to clear overnight as a ridge sets in with weakening winds through the weekend. Upper level ridge is expected to dominate the area through the remainder of the weekend which will provide very mild conditions over the region.
254 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Expect warmer conditions through Saturday, though we will see some showers across northern Washington and Idaho today.
The severe weather potential continues to diminish quickly with cooler and drier air advecting into the Mid-South overnight. Much cooler temperatures are expected and maybe the first frost of the season possible as well. /issued 319 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches along the Ohio River southwestward through Arkansas. Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region and will bring temperatures that finally feel like autumn. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s while the lows will drop down into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
345 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Expect warmer conditions through Saturday, though we will see some showers across northern Washington and Idaho today.
500 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 WV imagery this aftn shows a trof axis shifting east of our area, with remnant boundary layer moisture contributing to a high-based cu/stratocu field from swrn SD thru much of ern SD and NE. Farther upstream, cirrus is evident from the Pac NW into the nrn Rockies atop a building ridge over the wrn CONUS.
/issued 222 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ An upper low will continue to move away from the region today and tonight with upper level ridging beginning to move overhead resulting in height rises aloft.
There is strong pre-frontal forcing ahead of a more intense squall line that is moving into middle Tennessee and NW Alabama just ahead of the cold front. The mid to upper support will shift north to northeast toward the eastern or upper Ohio Valley by midnight as strong upstream short wave trough shifts northeastward. Lows may actually be after 12z and be in the mid 50s to around 60 by about 800 AM EDT as the cold front reaches the forecast area late tonight. NW winds may be gusty for a few hours into the morning behind the front and it will feel much cooler than the past several days. behind cold front Saturday afternoon Gusty NW winds at KTRI about 18Z TD.
Winds have trended stronger across the rest of the zone as well with Halleck Ridge approaching 55 mph for gusts. The main story this afternoon and tonight is the high winds between Arlington and Elk Mountain along Interstate 80. Skies are expected to clear overnight as a ridge sets in with weakening winds through the weekend. Upper level ridge is expected to dominate the area through the remainder of the weekend which will provide very mild conditions over the region.
915 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the Texas panhandle overnight with light northwest winds across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area ahead of a cold front this evening into the overnight hours.
Much cooler temperatures are expected and maybe the first frost of the season possible as well. /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches along the Ohio River southwestward through Arkansas. Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region and will bring temperatures that finally feel like autumn. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s while the lows will drop down into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
High pressure over the region will yield mostly clear skies and quite seasonable temperatures through the weekend though periodically breezy conditions will be common through south-central Arizona.
936 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Cold front as of 02z has moved through all but far southeast LaSalle Parish in EC LA attm. Temperature drop off is a little behind the initial wind shift but eventually, the cooler, drier air will filter into our southeast third later this evening into the overnight hours. /issued 446 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ VFR conditions will prevail through the 24hr TAF period with the exception of the first 2 to 3 hours of the TAF period with the possibility of convection ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Convection is very isolated to widely scattered attm mainly ahead of the cold front which as of 21z was located near a Little Rock, Arkansas to Longview, Texas line.
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a drier airmass will bring VFR flying conditions as FEW-BKN030-080 this evening give way to FEW-SCT250 tonight through Saturday night. A cold front is pushing across the area this afternoon with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along it and extending from Taylor southwestward to Sisterdale to Brackettville as of 230 pm. The cold front should clear out our CWA by 6 or 7 pm this evening.
Limited instability and shear across the area this evening has prevented any significant development ahead of the cold front to our west. The main concern for this evening is the advancing cold front to our west. Cooler/drier air will continue filtering into the Tennessee Valley in the wake of the recently departed cold front, with morning lows Saturday starting off in the lower 50s NW/middle 50s SE. A great taste of Fall will linger for the weekend, with daytime highs in the middle 60s for highs both days (with a few locations in Srn Middle TN in the lower to middle 60s).
613 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper-level trough is making its way across the central United States today resulting in broad southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures are expected to cool into the low 30s in central Wisconsin to the upper 30s/low 40s along the Mississippi River. Winds aloft transition to northwesterly as we round the base of the upper-level trough in the afternoon.
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A cold front will move out of east Arkansas this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms. The clearing will be the result of high pressure and drier air entering the region.
The forecast challenge is whether frost/sub-freezing temperatures materialize overnight. As of 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny to partly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s on breezy west winds. Add in the surface winds going light from the west or south-west, and should be able to achieve that elusive "below freezing" low temperature later tonight that has been missing from the past 3 or 4 weeks. Additionally, areas that maybe don't see below freezing temperatures tonight, could end up with some decent frost formation by morning.
644 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A strong, Canadian high pressure system is building into the region this afternoon and evening. This will pushing the cold front further to the east and bring in cooler and much drier air.
/issued 319 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches along the Ohio River southwestward through Arkansas. Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region and will bring temperatures that finally feel like autumn. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s while the lows will drop down into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
1034 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Currently - A weakening surface through lower level ridge extending along the Atlantic coast across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico is settling slowly southward. The weakness and alignment of the ridge allowed for both the development of island cloud lines in the Lower Keys and sea breeze activity earlier today. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period the surface through lower level ridge will shift a bit further southward. Dew points will be in the lower to mid 70s. Weak ridging across Florida will maintain northeast to east breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
654 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. Temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday. A strong cold front will approach the region overnight, reaching the far western portions of the forecast area around or shortly after 06z. The cold front will be near the eastern CWA border by 12Z Saturday. However, the the trough axis will slowly swing through the region on Saturday. Lobes of vorticity within the trough will support scattered rain showers for most of the day.
Some middle level clouds extending into southern Minnesota may clip northern portions of the area overnight into Saturday morning, before shifting east in the afternoon, until the 500 mb vorticity maximum shifts through on the backside of the trough.
456 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building over NM during the next 24 hrs. After another morning with temperatures near or below freezing across many areas, Saturday will give way to sunny skies and light winds.