Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER ENERGY WILL PUSH E ON FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 50S SAT AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUN. SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE AREA MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH INTO WY ON TUE WITH A POTENTIAL UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION. NOTED THE ECMWF WAS RUNNING COOLER THAN THE GFS ON TUE.
STILL EXPECT A BORA EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES AS A COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COURTESY OF A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HI TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.
AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION 415 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FRONT INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STRETCHED OUT OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD AND BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM ZONAL TO A MORE RIDGE TYPE PATTERN TODAY. WILL EXPECT LESS OF A CONCERN WITH WINDS TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A WARM THERMAL RIDGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODELS REALLY PICKING UP ON THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
147 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. REMAINING SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PAY A BRIEF VISIT TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGING AROUND RATHER STRONG WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION. FOLLOWED BY LOW 60S IN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
VFR conditions will prevail w/ winds becoming gusty through the day as a weak cold front passes. /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ The big concern today will be fire weather as a cold front currently across south-central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma moves across the area. Gusty northwest winds will follow the cold front passage along with drier air. The cold front will actually not have much of an impact on temperatures this afternoon with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s today with near record highs in some locations.
400 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND HAS PUSHED INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY. FOR THE 00Z RUN HAS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.
405 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 FOR TODAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING AND STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY I HAD TO PUT THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE WORDING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY.
211 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 UPPER TROUGH DISSOLVES AS IT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
640 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION. ALLOWING A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE EAST INTO MISSOURI AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR 00Z TONIGHT AND ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SKY COVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR AND SUNNY FOR TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN LEADING TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AROUND MIDDAY. ON TUESDAY A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE AND MAINLY SWITCH WINDS TO THE SW TO W TO NW AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
140 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERIODIC SHOWERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN VERMONT STILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION (40S TO AROUND 50).
A COLD FRONT IS NOW SURGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
230 AM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
314 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 The big concern today will be fire weather as a cold front currently across south-central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma moves across the area. Gusty northwest winds will follow the cold front passage along with drier air. The cold front will actually not have much of an impact on temperatures this afternoon with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s today with near record highs in some locations.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE OK AND TX PNHDLS WITH THE HIGHEST OVERALL SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN ZONES AND LOWEST IN THE FAR SERN TX PNHDL.
621 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS THEM BACK TOWARD THE LATE WINTER AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS EXITING LOW PRESSURE PULLS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. NEGATIVELY-TILTED H300 TROUGH AND 140KT JET STREAK WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/EC HAVE BUDGED LITTLE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RESPECTIVE CAMPS ON THE EVOLUTION AND POSITION OF THE LOW/TROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE DOMESTIC MODELS TAKE A WEAKER LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WHILE THE EC RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE LOW AND LIFTS IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. THE LOW PLACEMENT WILL ALSO DICTATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL QUICKLY FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN KIND TO PRIOR SOLUTIONS W/WW ELONGATION OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS AS SPRTG JET STREAK HEADS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT. THIS LEAVES BEHIND SOME VESTIGE OF CYCLONIC FLW ALOFT AS MID LVL TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO FRI BFR REINVIGORATING INTO SAT AS WHATS LEFT SPINS OUT EWD ACRS THE OH VALLEY. E-SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MO TODAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE JET NORTHWARD, AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH COAST THIS EVENING, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT.
329 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 COOLER WEATHER AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. MAIN TROUGH AXES WERE NOTED FROM MB THROUGH MT. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM MI INTO IN AND KY INTO GA. WITH TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN NEB INTO EASTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL THE RESULT OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY. AS A WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS BEHIND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BEHIND A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 RIDGING WILL EXTEND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND STALL. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
330 AM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016 High pressure will result in warm and dry weather across NorCal this week. Moisture spilling over the building eastern Pacific ridge in northwest flow is spreading some mid and high-level cloudiness across NorCal. Temperatures are running about 10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 20s in the colder mountain valleys to the mid 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS ILLINOIS THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE IN OUR SE COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH INCREASINGLY CLEARER SKIES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. GENERAL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE DAY WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AND TROUGH AXIS FOR FOCUS CAN'T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 8OS.
UPPER HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL START A SLOW RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
SHRAS/TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE PSBL SAT AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES FM THE W AND DEVELOPS A SFC LO THAT RIDES THE FRNT. THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
313 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 TODAY LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST.
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
339 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT.
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE TROUGHING.
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED SHEAR.
343 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER BERMUDA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO. WITH UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER ON THE BEACHES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT. IN THE LOW/MID 50S. ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO BE DRY OUT.
THERE WAS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND TROUGH REMAINING IN BALANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING OFF THE EASTERN TROUGH.
WILL WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C.
WITH PERSISTENT 500 MB TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. AND 500 MB LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WHEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW MEX INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY THE 4TH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. USUAL MODEL BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN NOSE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.
8 INCHES/ CREEPS IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU HEAD NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA TODAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG AND BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. ALL AREAS COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING ON NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE THIS LINE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO PULL EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY AND SOME 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA.
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO TODAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
358 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 313 AM CDT SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCING EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A BIT. BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAKE COOLING SHOULD BE FAR LESS AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL KEEP EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE POOLED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY CONVECTION. FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIE. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLACE.
JHM ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS. NORTHERN VALLEY WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOW 100S BUT REST OF THE VALLEY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTH KEEPING DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS FROM ALI-BEA- VCT WITH THE LOWER VSBYS TOWARD ALI.
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL AGAIN ALLOW EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
A WEAKENING AND FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
511 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION.
313 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 313 AM CDT SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCING EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A BIT. BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAKE COOLING SHOULD BE FAR LESS AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED ACROSS THE MID-WEST. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING. THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE.