Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Weak low pressure will also be located over the Southeast U. The steering flow will remain weak and it will be a challenge to pinpoint weak forcing in the vicinity of the upper low too far in advance. Expect diurnal convection to develop first across the higher terrain of the Carolinas and along the sea breeze front and then move slowly elsewhere due to the light steering flow.
258 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Low-amplitude ridging aloft will be the driver of sensible weather over the next 36 hours. Given the weak cap, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to a weakening vorticity maximum moving over the ridge, with south central South Dakota to the Huron area having modest chances for rain. On Monday the pattern begins to change, with the ridge moving downstream and a distinct trough moving in from the western CONUS.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the low 60s along the KS/CO border to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas. A drier pattern then emerges through the remainder of the week as an upper level high builds over the Central Plains and Central Rockies.
The upper ridge over Texas will retrograde to the west as an upper trough deepens over the western U.
While perceptibly weaker, it is expected that a disturbance will rotate around the western periphery of a dome of high pressure centered near KBRO.
A weak upper ridge covers much of the US. The region sits south of the front of this ridge, and the jet stream still flows near the northern US border. The day will start in the low 70s under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will remain near normal, but the less humidity will mean heat indices peaking around 90 instead of the higher 90s.
142 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will drop south through the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley overnight into Sunday. Additional storms will be possible Sunday as a wave of low pressure travels along the front. High pressure and dry conditions move in for Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front in the warm and very humid airmass this aftn, in the moderately unstable airmass. Expect lows from near 70 north to the lower 70s south. Sunday will be a little cooler with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
A somewhat stagnant weather pattern remains in place across southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as the area remains on the northern periphery of the summer-time ridge.
Otherwise, a mainly dry and warm day can be expected today as the ridge supports weak capping across the area. Convection is expected to develop along the trough Monday afternoon, with other activity over the northern Black Hills in weak inhibition. However, deep bulk shear will be lacking until the upper trough pushes closer to the region Monday night.
Expect partly cloudy skies overnight with lows generally in the low 70s.
For today, the subtropical ridge will remain anchored just to our south. Otherwise, high temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the lower 90s to 100 degrees with the warmer temperatures in the southwest counties.
609 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Meanwhile, a low and mid level short wave trough below 500 mb over the extreme Southeast United States, southward into the Florida Peninsula is expected to dig southward over the next couple of days.
Another active day is forecast, with convection initiating over the higher terrain of western NM first, then expanding east with time.
646 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern plains and sern U. with a deep trough in the western U.
Scattered convection will develop into early afternoon along the east coast sea breeze and also across interior sections with an increase in coverage in the 2 pm to 6pm time frame as storms concentrate across the ern side of the peninsula with SW flow in the low to mid levels.
An upper level low will be positioned over southern British Columbia through the weekend. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than normal Sunday with scattered showers across some areas.
Meanwhile, closed upstream circulation was centered over British Columbia with a trough extending down the western U. At the surface, high pressure was in control from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains.
735 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 The center of the upper ridge should stay to our west.
500 mb heights rise this week as upper ridge begins to poke into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies.
A slow moving cold front will push across the region today and tonight, ahead of which an unstable air mass will help set off afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Mid-level clouds have begun streaming into NorCal early this morning as upper level troughing continues over the west coast.
646 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Low-amplitude ridging aloft will be the driver of sensible weather over the next 36 hours. Given the weak cap, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to a weakening vorticity maximum moving over the ridge, with south central South Dakota to the Huron area having modest chances for rain. On Monday the pattern begins to change, with the ridge moving downstream and a distinct trough moving in from the western CONUS.
There is uncertainty on the exact location of any convection; however, the highest probabilities are currently across west central and southwest Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas (KCSM/KLAW/KSPS). 500 mb heights rise this week as upper ridge begins to poke into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies.
Boundary layer mixing will transport the drier air down to the surface throughout the day, and this will allow temperatures to easily warm into the upper 90s and possibly the lower 100s this afternoon.
Patchy dense fog is ongoing this morning, with the lowest visibility at KFYV/KXNA. Like yesterday, locally heavy rainfall will be likely in a few areas given the the high rain rates and slow storm motions expected.
634 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 High pressure builds through Monday. A cold front moves across the area Monday night.
Things become more interesting tonight as the long wave trough over the west coast sends pieces of energy through northeast Montana in an H5 southwest diffluent flow. Surface support comes in the form of an advancing trough and increasing surface moisture - nearing 65 dew points. Any severe storms should be confined to the Williston to Crosby area, and on the low end of severe at that (better chances in northeast Montana).
The position of the low- level jet suggests that most of any nocturnal activity should remain mainly west of the area, possibly catching us on the east side. Monday night would be the main focus as the low-level jet axis shifts east.
Weak mid-level low/trough over ne Fl will be shifting se today. This will provide lift and combined with heating should result in the highest coverage of storms across se zones of ne Fl later this morning and afternoon. Another weak mid level trough will move into n Ga later this afternoon which may increase convection over se Ga by this evening.
Meanwhile, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms developed around sunrise over the Southeast Gulf waters and the immediate Gulfside waters of the Lower Keys. A western Atlantic ridge axis across South Florida this morning will settle south across the Keys this afternoon, then into the Straits tonight and Monday.
1040 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. The wavy, weak cold front remains across the northern portion of the CWA this morning. Building high pressure is expected to push the front south of the area by Monday; however, low level moist flow into the ridges may produce some showers or a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.
A mid-level trough will be moving into the southeastern US causing the Bermuda high to lose its influence over South Florida.
329 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Moisture will continue to rotate north along the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure that is centered over west Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Storm chances will continue through the day Monday keeping temperatures down similar to today, before the heat gets turned up for a couple of days thanks to strengthening ridging aloft over the southern plains.
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A weak cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Slow-moving showers will continue to cause problems across the region this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front moves south. Showers are expected to stay focused near the ridges overnight and into Monday morning as the boundary repositions further south. Building high pressure is expected to push the front south of the area by Monday night; however, low level moist flow south of PA may produce some isolated showers or a few thunderstorms.
Small thunderstorm cluster possible across the northern plains late tonight will get some push into MN mon morning, but drier air already in residence, and placement of the ridge/high should limit/hold off any related pcpn threat for the local area any remnant mcv could bring. Instability axis shifts into eastern WI Wed afternoon, along the leading edge of the system's cold front. After that, trends suggest a mostly dry end to the work week with more shower/storm chances returning for the weekend as ripples in the flow top a broad upper level ridge. Warmer, more humid air could also return.
An upper level low will be positioned over southern British Columbia into early Monday morning with a few scattered showers around.
1249 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Canadian high pressure will builds across the region through tonight, then slowly move south Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night.
242 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A weak subtropical ridge axis will settle south through the Keys late today, the Straits of Florida tonight, then a latitude over Cuba on Monday and Monday night. Proximity of the weak ridge will support some drying of the air mass through Monday evening, but Precipitable Water (PW) values will still remain above climatology values for early July.
1128 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Moisture will continue to rotate north along the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure that is centered over west Texas and eastern New Mexico.
The most likely scenario will be for a few storms to migrate east off the higher terrain into western Neb. It is unlikely (but not a non-zero chance) that development will take place away from the higher terrain due to the lack of forcing or a boundary. Rain chances increase Monday afternoon and evening as large scale lift increases ahead of an approaching upper level trough across the Rockies. Warmer and drier weather is expected by the middle and end of the this week. The GEFS and ECMWF build upper level ridging into the four corners region and much of the Central and Southern Plains.
1211 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Eventually drier air will slowly work southward through PA over the next two days as high pressure builds down from the north.
120 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Building high pressure is expected to push the front south of the area by Monday; however, low level moist flow into the ridges may produce some showers or a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis was across the wrn areas and will move e during the diurnal heating cycle. Chance PoPs still look ok, HRRR and to a lesser degree RAP13 and 00Z ECMWF have shown storms developing across the ern 1/3 of CWFA before 21Z, presumably in warmer and more moist environment, and recent radar/satellite trends confirm models. Similar to last night we see the possibility for SHRA/TSRA to continue through the night as the mid-level theta-e ridge tracks e across the CWFA though the night. Models are still in good agreement that the subtropical ridge will build nw and expand Thur-Sunday.
After tonight, there is fairly good model agreement on the fate of the high pressure ridge, and it does not bode well for future rain chances. A deepening low over the Pac-NW will be sliding along the US/CA border the next several days, flattening the ridge and the two pass each other by. As this low approaches the Great Lakes, the high will be in great position to explode into a an expansive ridge circulating over the Four Corners region through the weekend.
The trough of low pressure that has been over the Pacific Northwest is still anticipated to move through the Northern Rockies on Monday. This trough will keep temperatures below normal with scattered showers.
328 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 An upper trof which produced showers and thunderstorms earlier today has now moved east of the region. As the upper trof continues to march SE away from the region, upper high pressure will build into the region on Monday.
Dewpoints in the I-59 corridor were in the lower 70s for the most part. Latest guidance suggests mixing in the afternoon will lower moisture values even more across the southeast and heat indices may not peak in the lower 100s.
Most convection should be held in the higher terrain thanks to persistent upslope northwesterly flow in the mid levels. An upper ridge will continue to expand across the region early in the extended.
1240 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front will slide across the today with more showers and storms giving way to drier air and decreased rain chance for the start of the new work-week. Building high pressure is expected to push the front south of the area by Monday; however, low level moist flow into the ridges may produce some showers or a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Some ridging aloft may keep coverage of afternoon/evening storms down a bit, but we will still see scattered pulse showers/storms with the overall better chances over the southern and and southwestern cwfa where somewhat better instability exists (around 2500 j/kg late this afternoon).
346 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as a cold front crosses the region to the southeast. Somewhat cooler and notably drier air will work in from the north as high pressure settles over Michigan on Monday.
1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Low-amplitude ridging aloft will be the driver of sensible weather over the next 36 hours. Given the weak cap, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to a weakening vorticity maximum moving over the ridge, with south central South Dakota to the Huron area having modest chances for rain. On Monday the pattern begins to change, with the ridge moving downstream and a distinct trough moving in from the western CONUS.
These are associated with the upper trof which is now oriented over middle Tennessee. This activity is ahead of a cold front which extends across central Indiana through central Missouri and into northern Oklahoma. This cold front is expected to continue to move south and drop into the Mid-South later today. Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By tonight, the cold front will stall out and weaken some with only a few thunderstorms expected to develop during the evening hours. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm with highs in the lower 90s.
Depending upon the location of the upper ridge axis there may or may not be storms over portions of southeast Missouri Monday afternoon.
Forecast High pressure centered over Lake Superior is bringing cool and dry northeast flow to the area today. Most of this smoke will stay to our north, closer to the center of the high, but the HRRR smoke model does bring a lobe of smoke into the area later tonight. Monday should be similar to today, but just a touch warmer. Temperatures will warm into the low 80s for most, but light easterly winds should help a lake breeze to push inland, keeping highs near the lakeshore closer to the low to mid 70s.
Both a weak surface boundary and upper trough are moving across Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
128 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A deepening trough over the West Coast will bring cooling through Monday. High pressure will build over the Southwest by the middle of the week, bringing much warmer weather and less extensive low cloud cover west of the mountains. A trough of low pressure over the West Coast will maintain a deep marine layer so that the low cloud deck will fill the coastal basin again tonight into Monday. High pressure from the east will make its move to expand westward this week, producing a gradual warming trend.
130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Both a weak surface boundary and upper trough are moving across Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Low-amplitude ridging aloft will be the driver of sensible weather over the next 36 hours. Given the weak cap, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to a weakening vorticity maximum moving over the ridge, with south central South Dakota to the Huron area having modest chances for rain. On Monday the pattern begins to change, with the ridge moving downstream and a distinct trough moving in from the western CONUS.
136 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern plains and sern U. with a deep trough in the western U.
High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Surface Piedmont trough appears to shift a bit to the east across Midlands. 850mb trough appears to shift from GA into the area. Ridge offshore. Upper low over GA with several weak short wave triggers possibly moving east across area.
950 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2019 An upper low continues to dig southward across northern Washington, leading to pleasant cooler-than-normal conditions for early July.
Some KY Mesonet stations west of I-65 have shown dewpoints in the upper 70s, pushing Heat Index values into the low 100s. Widely scattered convection has developed as a weak cold front slowly sinks south through a humid, unstable airmass.
Left the low POP in for this area through the rest of the afternoon/early evening.
There could be small hail accompanying some of the storms across the higher terrain of Graham/Greenlee COs later this afternoon. The best chance for wetting rain will generally be across the higher terrain and for locales south and east of Tucson, with gusty outflow winds possible with the stronger storms.
Dry, warm and humid weather will continue through the short term as a large area of high pressure aloft continues to provide subsident air flow for our area.
Weak upper troughing over the western U. will be replaced by an amplifying upper ridge as we move into the middle of the week.
1048 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Disturbance across SE OK and SW AR combined with a stagnant pool of high PWAT values and persistant thetae ridging in the 850-700mb layer is all the ingredients needed for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing to train across the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and now Northwest Louisiana. HREF and HRRR by far has the better handle on these short term variables vs the 12z NAM and GFS output so have followed the high res solutions closely for this update. Expanded low end chance pops to take in NW LA and expanded Slight chance pops to take in the I-20 Corridor of NE TX as far south and east as the Lower Toledo Bend Country.
/issued 1048 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019/ Disturbance across SE OK and SW AR combined with a stagnant pool of high PWAT values and persistant thetae ridging in the 850-700mb layer is all the ingredients needed for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing to train across the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and now Northwest Louisiana. HREF and HRRR by far has the better handle on these short term variables vs the 12z NAM and GFS output so have followed the high res solutions closely for this update. Expanded low end chance pops to take in NW LA and expanded Slight chance pops to take in the I-20 Corridor of NE TX as far south and east as the Lower Toledo Bend Country.
1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A cold front continues to sag slowly south through central KY. A weak upper ridge covers much of the US. The region sits south of the front of this ridge, and the jet stream still flows near the northern US border. The day will start in the low 70s under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will remain near normal, but the less humidity will mean heat indices peaking around 90 instead of the higher 90s.
Lows tonight will be a few degrees cooler than normal with near normal highs Monday.
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds have been slowly increasing. Tomorrow, a frontal boundary/inverted trough will exist across eastern ND, running from SW to NE.
150 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A trough of low pressure will linger across the region through tonight.
210 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 An upper level trough will move east across the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin tonight and Monday. 75 inches will keep showers and thunderstorms initiating off the higher terrain and moving north-northeast over the downwind valleys.
Upper level ridge slides east of the forecast area tonight, while a closed mid-level low moves over the Pacific northwest.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a trough of low pressure extending from the TN valley into the Deep South which is forecast to slowly drift southward tonight. At the surface, there is a weak leeside trough over the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. A frontal boundary over the Carolinas and a weak upper low in the Southeast U.
For Monday we'll the see the westerly flow increase between low pressure over the southeast U. and the subtropical ridge to the south and with abundant moisture in place more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move inland by afternoon. The subtropical ridge will remain south of the waters with an area of low pressure over the southeast U.
An easterly low level flow on Monday will result in drier air with dew points in the lower to middle 60s across the forecast area. Once again, would expect shallow, diurnal clouds to develop as forecast soundings point to convective temps in the lower-mid 80s.
349 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019 With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern today and Monday, expect sensible weather conditions similar to the past few days, with thunderstorm probs/coverage primarily modulated by mesoscale features associated with /emerging from/ upstream convection and/or small amplitude waves in SW flow aloft -- on the N/NW periphery of the ridge situated over the Southern Plains.
1047 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 A lingering shower will be possible as a cold front crosses the region tonight. Somewhat cooler and notably drier air will work in from the north as high pressure settles over the Great Lakes on Monday.
Main upper trough remains off to the west over the Tennessee valley region, and it will slowly drift southward tonight. Low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. A frontal boundary over the Carolinas and a weak upper low in the Southeast U.