Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper trough extends from Minnesota to Florida with northwest upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This upper trough will move eastward today. A cold front will move into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today from the east. The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the East Coast on Tuesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos Tuesday afternoon as low level moisture is advected into the area. High temperatures Tuesday will generally be cooler across eastern portions of the area with the increased rain chances and cloud cover.
Some patchy frost is not out of the question, especially in the sheltered valleys across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where some locations may drop near the freezing mark. The main limiting factor to a widespread frost outside of the valleys seems to be the large dewpoint depressions and light east winds as the center of the high slides to our north.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: Currently a trough is dipping down through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge runs from Arizona northward through the Intermountain west and British Columbia. Today through Tuesday: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the ridge out west comes by and crests across the region.
1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected again tonight into early Tuesday morning. Areas of northern and northeastern Missouri have fallen to/below the freezing mark, likewise will keep the freeze headline in place for this morning. Look for temperatures to fall to or below freezing in most areas of the CWA overnight tonight - warming above freezing by mid-morning Tuesday. Pattern undergoes changes by mid-week, bringing in warmer conditions and chances for precipitation.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front across our southeast; nearly along the Interstate 59 corridor. No precipitation was noted along the front on local radars so the cold front is expected to clear our CWA during the next hour or two without any additional precipitation in our CWA. This will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures as well.
142 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Low clouds will gradually clear tonight, as low pressure moves up the coast, and Canadian high pressure shifts SE.
A moderate northwesterly flow aloft over northern CO will weaken a bit as a ridge of high pressure aloft moves over the region. |On Tuesday the upper ridge shifts east of Colorado with developing southwest flow aloft ahead of next Pacific storm system.
955 AM PDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Sunny and warmer today except near the coast where a shallow marine layer will keep temperatures on the cooler side.
Cloud cover should begin to diminish during the afternoon hrs, as a large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states builds SE into much of the region. NNW winds are also helping to usher seasonably cooler air into the area, with highs later today struggling to climb past the lower/mid 60S. Highs will only peak in the lower 60s once again.
At the surface, high pressure extends from ND into Northern OK. The higher end of this range will be for areas along and west of I-135. For late Wed afternoon into early Wed evening there will be a chance for some iso storms as a cold front moves through southeast KS into eastern OK. By Fri morning there is good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS that a more robust upper trough will start digging over the Desert Southwest. This will setup Lee troughing and strong return flow across the Plains.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Drier air has moved into South Central Texas behind a cold front today. A weak upper level ridge is over Texas this afternoon. In the low levels, the southeasterly flow out west will bring a surge of moist Gulf air increasing PW to 1. Tuesday's temperatures will cooler than the past few days.
240 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The dry air and colder than normal air mass for mid April, even under the upper ridge, will allow temps to fall into the 20s again tonight. However, waa will begin a solid push in from the west on Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
242 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 An upper level trough is exiting the area this afternoon with high pressure building in behind a cold front. Highs today aren't expected to cap out around the mid 60s with some areas in the higher elevations being set in the mid 50s. Overnight lows will be well below normal, with some of the highest elevations of the GA mountains will struggle to stay out of the 30s. Cool temperatures combined with tomorrow's dry air could create some overnight frost concerns in the highest elevations in NE Georgia. High pressure and a subtropical just might just give us our first taste of summer with clear skies and plenty of sun.
High pressure will then build across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night, bringing drier but continued cool temperatures. However, additional short wave energy will rotate around the mid/upper level low over the central Great Lakes and this will affect our area through tonight. With some cooler air moving in aloft/increasing low level lapse rates, some weak instabilities may develop across the area as we move into this evening. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure will begin to build in from the southwest through the afternoon, leading to a decreasing cloud trend. We will remain cool with afternoon highs in the mid 40s north to the lower 50s across the southwest.
1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure across the western U.
However, we will refrain from issuing a Frost Advisory for now given the low confidence in the possibility of widespread frost.
432 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Latest analysis shows a weakening cold front crossing Eastern KY this afternoon. Light rain showers are slowly ending from west to east across the area and there should be a brief dry period later this afternoon into early evening, before additional moisture moves into the area associated with the upper low moving across the great lakes region. Steepening low level lapse rates and plenty of low level moisture will result in some scattered convective showers tonight and overnight, with some occasional snow showers mixed in, especially at the higher elevations. After coordinating with neighboring offices, will continue to go with an SPS to highlight the near freezing temps over this area. Low temps will be in the low to mid 30s. Afternoon highs range from the lower to middle 50s.
252 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 (Issued 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: An upper level trough is working through the region this afternoon. The initial area of snow associated with the front has pushed through the area, but a secondary area of snow aligned with the core of the upper low is approaching from the northwest.
Lows tonight will be slightly warmer in areas that can get into the breezy southeast flow, while returning to the single digits to northeastern portions. Highs look to be slightly warmer, with some southern areas returning back into the 40s.
The higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachian Mountains have a decent chance to drop to below freezing, but the lower elevations in the Valley will likely hover just above freezing. As the low continues to spin northeast of the area, there is a chance that enough wrap around moisture could bring in another light round of very spotty precipitation overnight.
305 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Latest analysis shows a weakening cold front crossing Eastern KY this afternoon. Light rain showers are slowly ending from west to east across the area and there should be a brief dry period later this afternoon into early evening, before additional moisture moves into the area associated with the upper low moving across the great lakes region. Steepening low level lapse rates and plenty of low level moisture will result in some scattered convective showers tonight and overnight, with some occasional snow showers mixed in, especially at the higher elevations. After coordinating with neighboring offices, will continue to go with an SPS to highlight the near freezing temps over this area. Low temps will be in the low to mid 30s. Afternoon highs range from the lower to middle 50s.
354 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 At 19Z today, an elongated area of high pressure was observed on surface charts, stretching from the border of North Dakota and Canada, southward over central Kansas. With temperatures in the low to mid 50s, relative humidity values had dropped into the low 20 percent range in some locations. The next concern will be freezing temperatures overnight tonight for much of the area. Warm air advection will then commence tomorrow as the ridge moves east and southerly flow increases.
Currently, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms with locally damaging winds and hail is over the far Upper Keys to the Ocean Reef area. Tuesday, high pressure will build into the southeastern United States and push a weak frontal boundary through the Keys while tightening the local pressure gradient and advecting a dry continental air mass into the area. In the wake of the front, a ridge of high pressure will build into the southeast United States tomorrow and hold through the end of the week, with breezy conditions prevailing through the end of the work-week.
Impacts have been minimal has temperatures are at or above freezing everywhere, ranging from 32 to 36 degrees. However, its possible some secondary roads or bridges may have slippery spots. Tuesday Night Through Monday It will be tranquil Tuesday night as high pressure slides east of the area.
Unsettled but warmer weather is expected mid/late week.
That gradient will shift eastward across the High Plains, including the forecast area, during the next 24 hours with breezy conditions persisting and winds veering to southeast to south. At the same time, a low-amplitude upper level short wave trough will move through the zonal flow across the Sangre de Cristos late tonight and across the South Plains and Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Tuesday morning. Will generally run with chance PoPs beginning at 12Z and continuing through the day with the highest chances progressing from west to east during the day.
Slightly warmer highs are anticipated for Tuesday, but with more clouds spreading in and increasing southeast winds, it will not feel much better.
High pressure will then build across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night, bringing drier but continued cool temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure will begin to build in from the southwest through the afternoon, leading to a decreasing cloud trend. We will remain cool with afternoon highs in the mid 40s north to the lower 50s across the southwest.
452 PM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Ridging continues to sweep east on the tail of yesterday's trough. This is bringing warmer temperatures for most areas, mainly those locations that have built up a westerly breeze. The next trough is hot in the tail of this ridge, and will build into western WY during the day tomorrow. Drier air ahead of the trough getting pulled in fro the southwest will bring an elevated fire weather threat across the state through Tuesday night.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s to the north and east of Tulsa and into far NW AR, especially in the typically colder valley spots.
Northerly winds between 5 to 15 knots with gusts between 15 to 25 knots will persist through early Tuesday afternoon, with the highest winds along the coastal sections. A negatively tilted upper trof over the eastern states into the Bahamas advances slowly eastward through the period allowing for a fairly zonal flow pattern to evolve over the forecast area.
656 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Drier air has moved into South Central Texas behind a cold front today. A weak upper level ridge is over Texas this afternoon. In the low levels, the southeasterly flow out west will bring a surge of moist Gulf air increasing PW to 1. Tuesday's temperatures will cooler than the past few days.
In addition, as high pressure becomes centered across the region late Tuesday, dry air will continue to advect into the area with subsidence and downslope NW winds reducing RH values across southeast TN and southwest NC. The higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachian Mountains have a decent chance to drop to below freezing, but the lower elevations in the Valley will likely hover just above freezing. As the low continues to spin northeast of the area, there is a chance that enough wrap around moisture could bring in another light round of very spotty precipitation overnight.
N/NW winds are ushering in cooler/drier readings of late for tonight across Central Alabama behind a cold front. Broad ridging over the Four Corners states will move east over the area tonight into early Tuesday morning. A surface cold front currently extends from near Anniston southwest to near Mobile and will continue moving east, clearing the state later this afternoon. Expect mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs ranging from the lower 60s far north to readings near 70 southeast.
The dry air and colder than normal air mass for mid April, even under the upper ridge, will allow temps to fall into the 20s again tonight. However, waa will begin a solid push in from the west on Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
/Issued 242 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022/ An upper level trough is exiting the area this afternoon with high pressure building in behind a cold front. Highs today aren't expected to cap out around the mid 60s with some areas in the higher elevations being set in the mid 50s. Overnight lows will be well below normal, with some of the highest elevations of the GA mountains will struggle to stay out of the 30s. Cool temperatures combined with tomorrow's dry air could create some overnight frost concerns in the highest elevations in NE Georgia. High pressure and a subtropical just might just give us our first taste of summer with clear skies and plenty of sun.
At 19Z today, an elongated area of high pressure was observed on surface charts, stretching from the border of North Dakota and Canada, southward over central Kansas. With temperatures in the low to mid 50s, relative humidity values had dropped into the low 20 percent range in some locations. The next concern will be freezing temperatures overnight tonight for much of the area. Warm air advection will then commence tomorrow as the ridge moves east and southerly flow increases.
344 PM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Ridging continues to sweep east on the tail of yesterday's trough. This is bringing warmer temperatures for most areas, mainly those locations that have built up a westerly breeze. The next trough is hot in the tail of this ridge, and will build into western WY during the day tomorrow. Drier air ahead of the trough getting pulled in fro the southwest will bring an elevated fire weather threat across the state through Tuesday night.
748 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Low clouds will gradually clear tonight, as low pressure moves up the coast, and Canadian high pressure shifts SE.
The 12Z and later guidance has trended a couple of degrees cooler for lows tonight. The HREF is not excited about it, and as we just stated the low-levels will be quite dry, so limited this to a slight chance of showers north of I-64 after midnight Tuesday night.
Latest analysis shows a weakening cold front crossing Eastern KY this afternoon. Light rain showers are slowly ending from west to east across the area and there should be a brief dry period later this afternoon into early evening, before additional moisture moves into the area associated with the upper low moving across the great lakes region. Steepening low level lapse rates and plenty of low level moisture will result in some scattered convective showers tonight and overnight, with some occasional snow showers mixed in, especially at the higher elevations. After coordinating with neighboring offices, will continue to go with an SPS to highlight the near freezing temps over this area. Low temps will be in the low to mid 30s. Afternoon highs range from the lower to middle 50s.
847 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening.
Calm winds will lead to slightly cooler temperatures and the potential for frost. This looks to result in another seasonably cool day on Tue, with highs in the lower 60s/near 60F, before temps rebound near 70F Wed, as a return flow pattern develops across much of the SE region. The seasonably cooler air will at least be in place one more night, with lows early Wed falling into the upper 30s/lower 40s. An upper ridge pattern will then build across the eastern/central Gulf states going into the end of the work week, with afternoon highs climbing into the lower/mid 80s, while overnight lows trend more in the mid 50s/near 60F. The global models are suggesting another cold front approaching from the west late in the period, but rain chances look to hold off thru Sun.
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 High pressure continues to build over Arkansas from the Plains.
A cold front continues to advance towards the forecast area this evening, with pockets of breezy to windy conditions noted across southeastern Oregon. The cold front is expected to arrive this evening, and move east through the forecast area through the overnight hours.
520 PM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Fairly active flow pattern will persist in the period as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS and eventually supports another deep sfc cyclone in the Northern Plains. Best chance for precip will be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the northern BH, with sct activity elsewhere.
Cool and dry high pressure building across the Deep South.
Brisk nwly winds are beginning to develop with low pressure expected to deepen a bit over srn Ontario tnt. The winds will gradually weaken during the daylight hours of Tue as high pressure moves from the Upper MS Valley to Lake MI by Tue evening. Gehring (Issued 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: An upper level trough is working through the region this afternoon. The initial area of snow associated with the front has pushed through the area, but a secondary area of snow aligned with the core of the upper low is approaching from the northwest.
A tight pressure gradient sets up across the region by Tuesday evening with the approach of the next low pressure trough from the Canadian Rockies.
At the surface, a sprawling continental high pressure cell is centered over the Great Plains, and is expanding equatorward, with winds having a northerly component across most of the Gulf of Mexico already. Within the last several hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over southern Peninsular Florida along sea/bay/lake breezes and a pre-frontal trough, and migrated southward, affecting portions the middle and upper Keys and adjacent coastal waters. Latest Doppler radar trends show decreasing coverage and intensity of deep, moist convection, with nearly all precipitation areas remaining east of the Seven Mile Bridge. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are generally in the upper 70s or lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s.
1046 PM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Ridging continues to sweep east on the tail of yesterday's trough. This is bringing warmer temperatures for most areas, mainly those locations that have built up a westerly breeze. The next trough is hot in the tail of this ridge, and will build into western WY during the day tomorrow. Drier air ahead of the trough getting pulled in fro the southwest will bring an elevated fire weather threat across the state through Tuesday night.
If these winds also begin to weaken, with low temperatures expected to drop to near or slightly below freezing across Upper Cumberland Plateau Region, it is not out of the question that a freeze warning could be issued later tonight for portion(s) of Upper Cumberland Region.
Discussion: Snow showers persist across SW VA where lapse rates are steep under a closed mid/upper low. The shower should be gone in the next few hours as the low pulls away and temps aloft stabilize. This brings afternoon min RH into the 20-30% range in some areas, with the lowest values south.
940 PM PDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The passage of a cold front tonight will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to the Inland Northwest.
Despite modest moisture lifting northward into much of southwest and central Kansas with surface dewpoints climbing well into the 40s(F), and even the lower 50s(F) areas farther south, instability will remain fairly limited keeping precip chances scarce during the period. Warmer temperatures are likely today as prevailing southerlies pull warmer air into the state with H85 temperatures pushing upward of 10C in central Kansas to near 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. The lower 80s(F) cannot be ruled out near and along the Colorado border.
1255 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Scattered rain and snow showers will continue today with the passage of low pressure. Scattered rain showers in the lower elevations and south of I-80 will eventually change to all snow, while the aforementioned locales remain all snow. Conditions for more efficient snowfall will be focused on the higher elevations.
Not planning to touch the ongoing freeze warning and frost advisory since there may be a small window towards daybreak where temperatures may dip near freezing, especially for counties under the freeze warning. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the clouds, falling into the lower to middle 40s.
317 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022 High pressure and clear skies were found across the area this morning. Temperatures ranged from the upper 20s to the low 30s. High pressure will seize the day today. Discussion: Northwest flow will transition to weak ridging during the day to eventually southwest flow late in the period. High pressure is centered over Iowa this morning and will move south and east through the day.
340 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Discussion/Marine - Light Snow Ending This Morning - Upper troughing will progress east through this morning with ridging quickly moving in place for today. High pressure will slide in by this afternoon cutting off moisture and ending any lingering precipitation by the late morning.
355 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 Low clouds will gradually clear tonight, as low pressure moves northward along the Atlantic Coast and high pressure builds in.
High pressure will be over the region today bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures as highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Northerly winds between 5 to 12 knots with gusts between 15 to 25 knots will persist through early Tuesday afternoon, with the highest winds along the coastal sections.
/issued 847 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening.
Upper level trough currently centered over the Great Lakes region will slowly push eastward today. Otherwise, expect another day of cooler temperatures, as highs generally stay in the mid to upper 50s. Overnight, high pressure will gradually move across the region and settle along the spine of the Appalachians by sunrise tomorrow morning.
This forecast is warmer than the guidance blend and close to the 50th percentile NBM forecast. A Pacific cold front will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska late tonight.
1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Drier air has moved into South Central Texas behind a cold front today. A weak upper level ridge is over Texas this afternoon. In the low levels, the southeasterly flow out west will bring a surge of moist Gulf air increasing PW to 1. Tuesday's temperatures will cooler than the past few days.