Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH MID 80S FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COUNTIES. CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TODAY WITH THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND LESS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
819 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE GOES FURTHER AND SUGGESTS A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN PA SUGGESTING IF WE CAN GET SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSLOPE RELATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO, BUT MAINLY NEW MEXICO.
644 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/ THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION IS UNDERGOING SOME WEAKENING THIS EARLY MON MORNING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE DIVING SEWD OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SE WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS MECH FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF TN AND AREAS N. A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARING FROM THE NW WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS.
746 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MOIST STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WEAK REMNANT OF THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL UT/NV BORDER THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PAC WEST OF SRN CA STARTS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM DYING TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NWD INTO THE SWRN STATES TOMORROW REACHING SRN UT BY LATE EVE AND COVERING THE SERN CWA BY 12Z WED. THE LOW STALLS OVER ERN UT THU NIGHT AND LIFTS OUT FRI NIGHT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE THRU FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPORARY DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
Overnight lows tonight will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning's temperatures.
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/ UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER EAST TX. ALLOWING A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY TO APPROACH AREA AROUND BACKSIDE OF RIDGE. PERSISTENT WEAK MID LVL RIDGING MAY LIMIT CONVECTION THIS WEEK.
1008 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT.
1102 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. WILL ALSO SEE A SURFACE TROF PASS THROUGH THE CWA MID DAY. A COOLER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 90S. WILL KEEP THE LOW RISK GOING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS.
NOT MUCH OVERALL LIFT EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH ENOUGH SFC HEATING TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER, INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
1051 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER RESULTING IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN 2015. EXPECTING HIGHS TO MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES ENHANCED A BIT BY AN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON WARMER SIDE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY DESPITE POST FRONTAL. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY LATE IN DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING BEING THE FOCUS.
935 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2015 WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND ENTRAIN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND SURFACE IS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IS STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING THE SURFACE TROF NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP DECENT MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE LESS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NOTED.
UPPER RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN AHEAD OF A TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DIGGING DOWN ACRS THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS PICKING UP ON AN ELONGATED VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS TROF ACRS WESTERN MANITOBA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN. WITH SFC DPTS DRY-DOWN MIXING INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON. SBCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 1000 TO NEAR 2K J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING IF SFC DPTS CAN HANG AROUND 60 OR THE LOW 60S. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUE MORNING.
100 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TRIGGERING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR INLAND AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL TROF IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION. WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WITH OUR REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (5H TEMPS AROUND -7.
931 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY BEFORE BECOMING EVEN MORE DIFFUSE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TO THE WEST. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO REMAIN AND PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FIRES OVER NEW MEXICO/COLORADO AND MOVES INTO THE AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SINKS TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY.
1117 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND GULF COAST REGION. OUR LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERGOING A TRANSITION AS A DECAYING LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST IS BECOMING OVERWHELMED BY A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND TOTAL TOTALS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 50S BY MORNING. WEAK 850 WAA AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO KEEP THE ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND. WHAT BREAK IN PCPN DOES OCCUR THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS THE COOL AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN. THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND THE TROUGH SLIPS TO THE EAST. ACTIVE PATTERN PICKS UP AGAIN LATER TUESDAY AS A STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE 850 TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REACH EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY.
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015/ AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE REGION THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ADDITIONAL FLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THE 8 AM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR VALDOSTA, AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR REGION WAS SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH USUALLY MEANS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL DEVELOP AT THE BEACHES BY LATE MORNING, AND MOVE INLAND IN A FAIRLY EVEN MANNER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WE ADJUSTED OUR POP BASED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HIGH- RES MODELS, AS WE EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN (50 PERCENT) ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST GA, AND SOUTHEAST AL, WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL. (THE HIGH-RES NWP GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY FORECASTING HIGHER POPS THAN THIS, BUT THE VARIOUS MOS POPS ARE QUITE LOW).
/ISSUED 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015/ Persistent upper ridge remains centered over Northern Mexico and extends up across NM and TX. Back to the west an upper low along the CA coast will spin in place for a couple of days before quickly swinging east. As the low moves east the upper ridge will slide underneath it and move back to the west. However it will keep moisture pushed up against the higher elevations. Did have storms over the higher elevations yesterday. Storm chances increase areawide late in the week as the upper low approaches.
TEMPEATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 20 TO 25C AND A STRONG MIXING COMPONENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME WITH SFC BOUNDARY JUST PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWA.
WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SOME OF THE HI RES SOLUTIONS WERE PUSHING AN OUTFLOW/PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TODAY AND PROGRESSED THE RAIN NORTH TO SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT A BIT MORE FORCING.
637 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PASSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH BREEZY /SLIGHT COOLER/ NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
1248 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUES WITH THE FRONT CLIPPING NW/CNTRL SD TUE AFTN/EVNG. SWRLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES TODAY KEEPS WINDS WEST AND NORTHWEST. BY LATE AFTN H700MB RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH 700 MB SUPPORTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND MOVE INTO MANITOBA BY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. WILL CAP THE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER HIGH PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS BUT SOME OF IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIF.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 64 59 70 / 100 80 90 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 63 58 69 / 90 70 90 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 65 58 69 / 80 70 80 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 65 56 66 / 80 60 80 80.
Given the earlier moistening of the low levels, expect these rains to make for more of a chance for measurable precip. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50s. These rain chances will be courtesy of an upper low passing well to our south across the southern U.
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A LARGE TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WEST.
Temperatures are falling off quickly under the high level cloudiness, so it appears to be fairly thin.
THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY TREK TO THE ARKLATEX AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING TOMORROW EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING WITH JUST BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS BUT IS FOCUSING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ON AL WITH THE GFS FOCUSING ON NORTH GA.
813 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WL INCREASE MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN MON AND MON NIGHT. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFFSHORE MID-LATE WEEK WILL BRING AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS EVEN MORE MOISTENING BY SAT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND STARTING OFF POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT LOOKS REASONABLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE FROM 850 MB THROUGH 250 MB. THE EVENING SOUNDING TRAPS ANY MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1500 FEET. A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. WILL ADJUST THE WINDS OVER THE STRAITS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. REASONING FOR THIS IS DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES OR CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT SQUASHING ANY MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE ABOVE 950 MB. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WHAT IS FUELING THE WEATHER SO FAR TODAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS BACK OVER TEXAS AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD.
938 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 LINGERING SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SE TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. FORECAST WILL LEAVE SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES JUST IN CASE OF A FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LOW.
804 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN AREA OF RAIN ACCOMPANYING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
This afternoon a closed upper low was located across central TX, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet. The upper trough that moved east across the northern and central plains last night has moved into the upper Midwest this afternoon. The upper low embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet will slowly move east across the gulf coast states through Sunday afternoon. Tonight will be clear with lows in the lower 40s. Expect sunny skies with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
WE WILL BE WARMER AND DRY INTO EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MAN. SOME DRYING WAS OCCURRING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN AND SLIGHT DRYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH OR OVER EASTERN ND. ALSO THE UPPER JET WAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT BIS AND ABR INDICATED COOLER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT TO AROUND THE 750 TO 800 HPA LEVEL. MAKING THE LOWER LAYER ADIABATIC TO THIS LEVEL WITH 40 TO 45 KNOTS POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN.
THIS IS THANKS TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE FOR SUNDAY.
VERY LIGHT RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS S TX THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AM EXPECTING THE --RA TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS E. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND IS OFFSHORE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE GULF THROUGH 00Z WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINING THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWINGING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A COOLER NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING UP TROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES FOR PILOTS ON LANDING AND TAKE OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT STILL BACK ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MEMPHIS WITH UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST.
RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.
FORMIDABLE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS SWEEPING THROUGH IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE WAIT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING WESTWARD.
741 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT INITIALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
Rain moved out of the area earlier today, with a cold front in it's wake, and some low clouds that continue to clear the area as drier air moves from the north. The axis of the upper level trough that helped bring all the rain to the area the last couple days is west of the area roughly along a line from Amarillo to Carlsbad, NM and southwest into northern Mexico. High clouds continue to stream over the area along the eastern side of this trough. Until the trough axis makes its way into our CWA later tonight, these clouds will continue over the area. The numerical models remain in good agreement with the overall evolution of the next upper-level trough which will affect the state.
SO WE'LL DEFINITELY BE PRECIP-FREE ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS QUICK HITTING. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL.
1012 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
S/WV TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS PROGD BY ALL MODELS TO CUT OFF OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ANOTHER COMPACT TROUGH IS ON THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER TRIPLE POINT TOO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTHWARD FROM THE MANITOBA LOW ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER AT 18Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND EAST OF THIS WARM FRONT AND THESE ARE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST. THIS IS JUST ON THE WARM FRONT AS WELL. WITH A BIT OF WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND WARMING OCCURRING IN LOW- LEVELS LATER OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
Clearing line is co-located with 500 mb trough axis this afternoon over eastern Kansas. Should see fairly rapid clearing from west to east through the evening across the forecast area as the trough continues eastward progress toward the Ohio Valley. An upper level low pressure system will pass on by to the south of the region on Sunday.
LOW INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ENCROACHING WARM FRONT (AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORM LINE) IS IN JUXTAPOSITION WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.