Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Friday) Low clouds have been tough to budge so far today for much of the area outside of far western Oklahoma and north Texas as cool, moist northerly flow continues on the backside of the large upper level low to our east. Chances for denser fog, or even freezing fog, would increase if cloud cover remains thin and/or higher base. This appears more likely for areas to our north and west but for now did include mention of patchy fog (or freezing fog depending on temperatures) across northwest Oklahoma late tonight. Temperatures will therefore remain cool tomorrow with highs only in the low 40s for much of the area.
1215 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Clouds continue to skirt the northern counties of Utah and Colorado today as a weak trough passes eastward to the north of the Wyoming border. Have opted to remove snow wording from most grids in the northern CO mountains as forecast soundings remain quite dry in the lower levels through the evening. A brief period of ridging will move in on Friday with dry weather and seasonable high temperatures. As the ridge axis passes during the afternoon, expect high cirrus clouds to spill eastward and overspread the western slope by evening.
102 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure situated over the Great Lakes region will dominate our weather through the weekend with quiet dry conditions and near average temperatures.
Light nrly flow on the eastern flank of high pressure centered across Lake Superior will support continued tranquil weather conditions across the forecast area. A closed low will cross the Midsouth and trek eastward Thursday into Friday before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday. The forecast area will remain on the northern periphery of this low, resulting in persistent nrly flow through the short term period, with another seasonable and cloudy day anticipated.
With below freezing temperatures possible, some freezing fog and aircraft icing will be a concern. Surface winds will veer to east and southeast by the end of the day as surface ridging moves to the east of the forecast area.
Despite this however, the result remains largely unchanged in that skies remain cloudy or mostly cloudy between higher based stratus in NE flow off eastern Great Lakes and higher level cloudiness streaming overhead from an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley. Persistence looks to generally be the rule over the next 24+ hrs with high pressure remaining anchored over the Upper Midwest. Some breaks are certainly possible given the drying just above and below the inversion, but between the stratus and high clouds streaming off the southern upper low generally mostly cloudy should be the predominant character of the sky with partly cloudy areas possible.
Pfahler On Friday night, an upper-level trough is forecast to navigate northwesterly upper-level flow as it passes over or immediately south of the forecast area.
314 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 Low pressure will track from the Deep South toward the Carolina coastline tonight into tomorrow.
Increasing cloudiness amid an approaching low pressure circulating in the Mississippi Valley has corrupted peeks of sunshine that some folks were treated to today. A slight southern shift in the center of the low from previous model runs has suppressed PoPs for our forecast area Friday morning, but enough moisture attempts to sneak up into the Greenbrier Valley that any showers that do occur will be in the form of snow, and could produce a few tenths of an inch on the northern strip of the precip shield. The low will migrate off the east coast by Friday evening, with light snow showers in southeast West Virginia gradually tapering off. Subtle ridging will make for a tranquil but chilly weekend.
Snow and rain mixed with snow remains ongoing across northwest Arkansas this morning with several reports of 3+ inches of snow accumulation coming in from the higher elevations of the Boston Mountains.
High pressure extends from James Bay to northern WI, resulting in light ne sub-850mb flow. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Definitely a quiet January night across the Northwoods with both mid and surface based ridging building directly overhead. Deep layer high pressure is forced to remain centered across our area through the remainder of this week as southern stream low pressure passes by well to our south and deep troughing pivots across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Details: Uneventful weather set to continue today and tonight as high pressure remains in control. Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of said high pressure will continue over the forecast area with above normal temperatures still occurring.
1035 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 An upper level low pressure system will continue to track across North Mississippi today. Don't expect much more warming to occur across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee as winds will turn from the northeast to the north as the low tracks further east.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates that the potent mid level low pressure system has moved into north central Mississippi early this afternoon. A drier airmass returns on the base of the passing trough axis tonight into Friday. Lows tonight will range in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees northwest of I-65 and in the lower to mid 40s southeast of I-65 and near the immediate coast. Winds gradually shift westerly this afternoon into early this evening following the passage of a cold front.
Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights and observations had the closed low over Mississippi with the trough extending northwest through Arkansas and Missouri toward southwest MN. The forecast soundings continue to show low mixing in the lowest 2-3Kft and the 900mb. The region remains under the influence of high pressure anchored just to our west Friday through the weekend, which will help keep things dry.
245 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 WV imagery shows a large trough exiting the MS Valley, w/weak upper- level ridging attempting to develop over the SW CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft.
215 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure situated over the Great Lakes region will dominate our weather through the weekend with quiet dry conditions and near average temperatures.
1044 AM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 Latest GOES-E nighttime microphysics shows our approaching upper level trough moving across ID/MT this morning while low clouds and fog are present from the middle Dakotas into central Nebraska. Lacking decent support aloft and quick progression of the trough will keep these winds mainly fixated in short 2-3 hour period around sunrise this morning for Arlington and after 7 PM MST for Bordeaux today. Short-lived ridging ahead of the trough today will keep daytime highs into the upper 30s and mid 40s with increasing cloud cover as a detached vorticity max advects ahead of the main trough. Moisture with this trough fairly minimal given the decent forcing associated. Short-lived ridging sets in the wake of the passing trough from Thursday as our progressive weather pattern continues with another trough digging in across the Pacific Northwest.
There is some potential for fog/freezing fog over mainly the western CWA tonight, but think it will be a low stratus and have left it out of the forecast at this time.
1228 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure extends from James Bay to northern WI, resulting in light ne sub-850mb flow. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Definitely a quiet January night across the Northwoods with both mid and surface based ridging building directly overhead. Deep layer high pressure is forced to remain centered across our area through the remainder of this week as southern stream low pressure passes by well to our south and deep troughing pivots across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Details: Uneventful weather set to continue today and tonight as high pressure remains in control. Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of said high pressure will continue over the forecast area with above normal temperatures still occurring.
Thus, GFS ends up Friday highs 10+ degrees warmer than the NAM. THus, highs in the lower 40s north of I-20 with highs in the 50s/60s elsewhere.
The main area of focus is for dense fog/freezing fog potential for tonight. An area of high pressure will continue to linger over the Northland for tonight and through the upcoming weekend. Model soundings indicate a low-level subsidence inversion will strengthen once again, bringing widespread low stratus clouds, as well as the potential for dense fog/freezing fog once again. Much of the result from the freezing fog this morning was rime ice building on area trees and structures, but not much in terms of icing on the roadways.
137 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 The upper low that brought the rain and snow to the area is moving away from the region. While the sensible weather is ending, the low clouds will likely hang on tonight and Friday, at the very least.
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Closed low will move along the LA/AR border region this morning with light rain/snow mix pinwheeling across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Temperatures are now expected to remain just above freezing where precip falls, which will mitigate any ice potential. The position of the inverted trof axis and associated moisture across the area will allow the very light precip to linger into midday before dissipating/exiting the area.
A weak and wobbly upper level pattern will be dominate through the weekend with large scale troughing across the central and eastern US. With at or above freezing temperatures today, expect a bit more snow melt to occur. Otherwise expect more of the same, with gloomy skies and temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Patchy fog will again be possible Friday night with lows dipping to the lower 20s.
248 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 Upper low continues to spin out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley this afternoon to lift into the Tennessee River Valley overnight. Surface storm system moving through the Deep South with attendant cold front sweeping through the C Gulf ATTM to move through the local area tonight from NW to SE with scattered to numerous showers along and ahead of it. Upper low to move to the Carolinas Friday with trough axis moving overhead and breezy westerly low level flow filtering cooler and drier conditions with clearing skies from north to south.
The area remains under northerly flow aloft this afternoon as a weak ridge moves into the region. High temperatures today will range from the low to mid-40s in Eastern Colorado where cloud cover has been significantly less today to the mid to upper 30s in much of Northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs in the 40s.
/issued 1035 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ An upper level low pressure system will continue to track across North Mississippi today. Don't expect much more warming to occur across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee as winds will turn from the northeast to the north as the low tracks further east.
The only real weather of note will be a few light lake effect drizzle, flurries or freezing drizzle across the lakeshore this evening. Otherwise some fog is possible tonight, but should not be nearly as thick as the last few days given a bit drier air in the lower levels. This pattern shift could bring the next chance for accumulating snow, and more likely some cooler air to Wisconsin.
While an upper level low works across the Tennessee Valley tonight into Friday afternoon. Going to put out an Special Weather Statement for the overnight snow as there could be a few slick spots on area roadways during the Friday morning commute especially on bridges and overpasses and untreated surfaces as morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. The weekend still looks dry as a large expanse of high pressure spreads from the Rockies and Plains across the Midwest.
A mid to upper level low is currently sitting over the southern Mississippi River Valley with north to northwest flow aloft over FA. With dewpoints in the teens to twenties temperatures will drop to below freezing meaning any fog that occurs will be freezing fog.
251 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Current satellite shows a low pressure system in the Ozarks slowly moving off to the East. This is likely due to the models under doing the upper level low's strength. The models kept the system as an open wave while 12Z analysis and satellite imagery indicate there is a close upper level low with this system. Friday, high pressure will build into the region. The high pressure system to the northeast will continue to build into the region and will keep this next system too far to the south to affect the region.
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 A vertically stacked upper low over the Arklatex region with an inverted upper level trough to the north will shift east with time. This isn't an ideal overall setup for a significant snow (or mixed precip) event for our area with the main low so far south, but guidance does continue to indicate that the northern extent of precip will continue to rotate around the main upper low over southern MO over the next few hours before overall lift gradually weakens after 15z/9am.
The cutoff low currently over the southeast and its associated cold front, which is currently moving through our area, will be out of our region this evening. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will push into our region from the W-NW while an overcast cloud deck will remain in place through the end of the near term, leading to a cloudy day on Friday. Expect overnight lows to be in the mid 40s with daytime highs in the low to mid 50s.
tonight: Across central Lake Michigan, a mid-lake convergent boundary has developed today, likely driven by a thermal trough over the lake and possibly some land breeze influence off Lower Michigan. Friday and Friday night: The lowering inversion will result in a descending stratus deck with thermal profiles less supportive of ice nucleation by daybreak.
Overnight lows will range from the low 30s across the far western zones to the mid/upper 30s elsewhere. As a result, high temperatures on Friday will stay below normal, in the mid/upper 40s across North TX and the low 50s across Central TX.
As an upper level low passes south of the region, some light snow and flurries will be possible along and south of the Ohio River Thursday night into Friday morning.
/15/ Most of the heavier rain has shifted east of the area this morning, but showers will continue across much of the area, as the upper low moves from the delta into Northeast Mississippi by this evening.
258 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure located over central Canada will slowly build toward the North Country on Friday into this upcoming weekend. Still cannot completely rule out a few passing light snow flurries or patches of freezing drizzle across the higher terrain tonight into early Friday. Water vapor shows large scale blocking type pattern with ridge over low acrs the central conus, while closed cutoff circulation over eastern Canada continues to retrograde back westward toward northern ME.
230 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Weak southerly return flow on the west side of high pressure in MN will continue to pull abundant low to mid level moisture into the region. Coupled with the low stratus, it will be a favorable set up for drizzle and freezing drizzle through Friday afternoon.
1258 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 An upper level low pressure system passing south of the region as it moves eastward will bring a chance of flurries along and south of the Ohio River tonight. High pressure keeps the atmosphere stable through the period - highlighted by the surface inversion on the 12z sounding. Only notable mention is that saturation remains in the lower-levels, keeping a low stratus deck in place across most of the counties today. The upper low will bring some moisture and ascent to areas south of the Ohio River as it pushes into the western Tennessee Valley this evening.
Also added some patchy fog / freezing fog tonight and tomorrow morning. It'll be cooler than it has been for the next few days, but still well above seasonal norms. I was being rather generous with QPF, so it may be a bit on the higher side.
548 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Plenty of low stratus remains in place across the region this afternoon on the back side of the mid to upper level low currently located over northern Mississippi.
Travelers should also watch for wet roads re- freezing tonight as temperatures dip below freezing as well as continued snow and ice covered roads in areas that saw snow earlier today. One hazard to be aware of going into this evening is the potential for icy roads in areas where roads are currently wet as temperatures dip below freezing again after sunset.
An upper low is currently centered over North Mississippi, with light rain/drizzle continuing over much of the area. Mostly cloudy skies and cool conditions will prevail on Friday, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
With the more progressive onset of clouds and fog, temperatures are expected to remain slightly warmer overnight; low temperatures were adjusted slightly to match this trend. Dense fog now through Friday AM and the potential for freezing drizzle starting late tonight into Friday will be the main concerns of the short term forecast. Freezing drizzle chances start to increase after 3 AM Friday, although confidence in location is very low. Messaging the chance for freezing drizzle across the entire region, although not expecting the entire region to see freezing drizzle.
531 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Dense fog now through Friday AM and the potential for freezing drizzle starting late tonight into Friday will be the main concerns of the short term forecast. Freezing drizzle chances start to increase after 3 AM Friday, although confidence in location is very low. Messaging the chance for freezing drizzle across the entire region, although not expecting the entire region to see freezing drizzle.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ WV imagery shows a large trough exiting the MS Valley, w/weak upper- level ridging attempting to develop over the SW CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft.
221 PM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 A weak upper level trough over western WY this afternoon, will continue to track along the northern CO border tonight into Friday morning. Spatial cross-sections still show limited moisture with this system as it passes across the forecast area, with very limited pops in the high country. Across the northeast plains, the models show some low clouds advecting westward this evening into Sedgwick and Phillips counties, then shifting eastward overnight with the approach of a cold front. Models have upper ridging for the CWA Friday night.
/issued 320 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ An upper level low pressure system continues to move across North Mississippi this afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening, spreading into eastern parts of the CWA, as colder air gets wrapped around on the back side of the low.
647 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 VCSH with TEMPO MVFR conditions through the evening for many of the terminals as showers will move through out ahead of a cold front. /issued 601 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021/ Current forecast still appears on track this evening as a cold front was recently analyzed over the Central Panhandle of FL.
Geostationary satellite animations from the visible channel show a cold front moving steadily southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with a broken band of showers along its leading edge. A moderately amplified progressive upper air pattern persists across North America with widespread westerlies aloft over the Gulf basin, south of a deep cyclone. The cold front should reach the Florida Keys Friday morning, preceded and/or accompanied by a broken line of showers. A cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will move southeastward, crossing the Florida Keys Friday morning.
/Issued 137 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021/ The upper low that brought the rain and snow to the area is moving away from the region. While the sensible weather is ending, the low clouds will likely hang on tonight and Friday, at the very least.
635 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure located over central Canada will slowly build toward the North Country on Friday into this upcoming weekend. Still cannot completely rule out a few passing light snow flurries or patches of freezing drizzle across the higher terrain tonight into early Friday. Water vapor shows large scale blocking type pattern with ridge over low acrs the central conus, while closed cutoff circulation over eastern Canada continues to retrograde back westward toward northern ME.
911 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 Low pressure will track from the Deep South toward the Carolina coastline overnight into tomorrow.
With this occurring along with the moisture layer up to 1km or higher tonight in the 0 to -10c layer, went with patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle across the entire cwa for tonight into Friday morning. Will add some mention in the dense fog advisory for drizzle/freezing drizzle. Will monitor obs, radar, and webcams for possible more expansive coverage of drizzle/freezing drizzle. Weak southerly return flow on the west side of high pressure in MN will continue to pull abundant low to mid level moisture into the region. Coupled with the low stratus, it will be a favorable set up for drizzle and freezing drizzle through Friday afternoon.
A cold front will provide increasing winds through the day with choppy conditions expected across area lakes. A weak brush-by trough will track through northeast California early Friday morning. A cold front will also glance across northern Nevada Friday afternoon which will provide a mix of rain and snow showers roughly from about north of Susanville-Pyramid Lake-Lovelock. Snow levels will range from around 4500-5500' during the day with the lower range expected across the Surprise Valley and far northern Washoe County. Winds will increase early Friday morning with Sierra ridgetops gusting as high as 80-90 mph with valley gusts in the 30-40 mph range.
Breezy spots will develop this evening behind the inverted trough, mainly in the NE WY, but nothing too significant. LL saturated profiles with temps warmer than -10C may also also support some freezing drizzle, toward central SD given some increasing shear. Mean upper troughing will remain in place over the region into Sat, supporting a weakly mixed LL airmass.
Current satellite shows a low pressure system in the Ozarks slowly moving off to the East. This is likely due to the models under doing the upper level low's strength. The models kept the system as an open wave while 12Z analysis and satellite imagery indicate there is a close upper level low with this system. Friday, high pressure will build into the region. The high pressure system to the northeast will continue to build into the region and will keep this next system too far to the south to affect the region.
This scenario due to upper level low moving across mid state region as above mentioned hours progress.
320 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 An upper level low pressure system continues to move across North Mississippi this afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening, spreading into eastern parts of the CWA, as colder air gets wrapped around on the back side of the low.
The cold front is lagging behind the rain but it too will pass from west to east across the forecast area for the remainder of the evening into the early morning hours. The cutoff low currently over the southeast and its associated cold front, which is currently moving through our area, will be out of our region this evening. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will push into our region from the W-NW while an overcast cloud deck will remain in place through the end of the near term, leading to a cloudy day on Friday. Expect overnight lows to be in the mid 40s with daytime highs in the low to mid 50s.
The upper low is now situated over the Tennessee Valley and continues to pivot eastward this evening. An upper low is currently centered over North Mississippi, with light rain/drizzle continuing over much of the area. Mostly cloudy skies and cool conditions will prevail on Friday, with highs in the low to mid 40s.