Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
303 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS. WITH UPPER TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND A MARINE PUSH HELPS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHERLY ONCE MORE TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
INSTABILITY PROGGS POINT TOWARD OUR SW ZONES AS BEING THE BEST PRIMED REGION SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS AS USUAL. RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL MEAN SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN GULF STATES WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BELIEVE THAT THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE OVER SE IL/SW IN AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER BY MONDAY AS H50 SORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DIVES SE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. SFC DEW POINTS WILL HOVER IN THE MID 70S WITH ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S.
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE BROAD RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND COMPACT LOW OPENS UP AND PASSES TO THE NORTH. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM SOUTHERN AB ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS EACH DAY ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL MT PLAINS.
THUS WILL ONLY MENTION LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER NERN CO WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS EXCEPT NR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO. A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS GOING TO BE SUFFICIENT EACH DAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
133 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST.
407 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE N-CNTL GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS TX AND THE WRN GULF REGION. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA WHERE THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS AND A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS PROGGED ALOFT.
141 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND MID SUMMER WARMTH ON SUNDAY.
348 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING.
WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS 500 MB RIDGE RELOCATES ACROSS TEXAS AND NUDGES SOUTH. WHICH PULLED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 IN RURAL/RANCH AREAS AS WELL AS PREFERRED COOLER SPOTS SUCH AS VALLEY AIRPORT.
THIS WILL FORCE THE LEE-SIDE TROF TO DRIFT E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TOMORROW. ALLOWING A HIGH-BASED TSTM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC TROF.
MODELS SHOW LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS REACHING AN INITIAL PEAK IN INTENSITY NEXT 36 HOURS AS WAVES DROPPING SE OVER EAST SIDE OF RIDGE RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGIONS. MODELS AGREE ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGS NEXT 36 HOURS AS WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR EAST. AS A RESULT EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO POP UP A DEG OR TWO WARMER EACH AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SEEMS AS IF BETTER MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST IN THE ARKLATEX WITH MODELS SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S THROUGH EACH AFTERNOON.
Update: Satellite imagery shows an upper level trough off the coast with moist southwesterly flow across the region. The low that brought a much needed rain to portions of the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern Washington has shifted east of the area leaving behind more of a hit and miss showery air mass. Elevated convection has been evident early this evening with thunderstorms over the high terrain north of the Methow Valley. JW 06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will result in continued shower and thunderstorm activity through Sunday.
WEDGED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PACIFIC COAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BROADEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AXIS SLOWLY TRANSLATES WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 841 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ EARLY EVENING CONUS SCALE WATER VAPOR SHOWED A LARGE CENTRAL US RIDGE WITH THE CLASSIC SUMMERTIME "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN. EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TO DISSIPATE/THIN SOME OF THIS WITH TIME BUT WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS WITH EVENING UPDATE. SO THE TRENDS ARE FOR A WARMER NIGHT OVERALL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO KEPT A PERIOD OF VCSH FOR KHSV SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 An upper level high building over west Texas will end rain chances this week.
THIS FORECAST AREA AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TO THE SE. MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW AS THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH AMPLIFIES FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO SE COLORADO. THIS BRINGS A BRIEF WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD.
404 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER PLAINS/ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. NORTHERN ARIZONA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTH- CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE CAUSING A MOIST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
354 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY DOWN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AND THEN MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING IN FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
H5 RIDGE DOMINATING TEXAS WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ANY CU. WHICH IS NEAR THE LOWEST PW VALUES SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND.
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over NE Texas, and extending across most of the CONUS. Convection is trying to get going over the Sacramentos, and models suggest isolated orographic activity overnight invof the Guadalupes but, otherwise, the theta-e ridge exits to the NW overnight and Sunday as the upper ridge builds WNW into the region.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE PERIOD WITH SW FLOW OVER THE FA. LL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. WARM CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY.
445 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
302 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF IRK TO JUST EAST OF STL. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OR NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SOME MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS.
409 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE CENTER OF A RETROGRADING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EDGING WEST INTO CO TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS BORDER. AND PROVIDE FOR JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATELY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING UP ACROSS CO ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VFR SKIES OUT WEST AT DRT AS THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR A LITTLE DRIER TODAY. THE LOW- LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL INVERSIONS SHOWN ON THE 12Z DRT AND FWD SOUNDINGS BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE CONTINUED DECREASE IN MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SLIDES TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS TOMORROW.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Subsidence under an upper ridge moving across the area is expected to bring another dry and sunny day.
AND RIDGING CONTINUES TO FORCE A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE PACIFIC TROUGH BARRELS INTO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
COURTESY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
145 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER TO IMPACT US IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD. THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN AND LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
339 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 Another above average late fall day in the forecast, as southerly surface winds set up across the state under weak ridging aloft.
THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE FAR NORTH.
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RAIN- SHADOWING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN DOWN TO THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE BAND AND PRECIP CHANCES TO SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS LOW, ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT, TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS CELSIUS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
A RATHER DRY LAYER REMAINS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT BY THE TIME THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ROUTE 422. AS WARMER AIR MOVES THE FAR WEST LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES IT ARDUOUS TREK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE SHORT TERM.
Cool high pressure will slide from east from Tennessee into the western Carolinas today.
1207 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY.
EVEN WARMER ON SATURDAY PER PROGGED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
1103 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WITH A BROAD RIDGE IN ITS WAKE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET PUSHING NORTHWARD WELL INTO CANADA. WITH SOME MID 60S ALSO LIKELY IN WESTERN MN NORTHEAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS ON TRACK TO DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 60S TO NEAR 70 F FOR THE PLAINS.
High pressure will settle over the Tennessee Valley today, bringing a relaxation of the pressure gradient over and consequently lighter winds compared to the last couple of days.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. BIAS CORRECTED VALUES WERE WARMER THEN CONVENTIONAL VALUES AND WERE USED. BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT DRIZZLE EVENT WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH PRETTY SHALLOW AND A LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW.
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING MID- LEVEL TROF.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF INDIANA ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE W WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLR SKIES. THUS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MID STATE WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
404 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE THERMOMETER REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
1100 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS NORTHEAST CONUS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STRONG RIDGES AT 250HPA AND 500HPA AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST IS ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE.
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
WE WILL RETAIN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SOUTH PLAINS REMAINS POSITIONED WEST OF A SPRAWLING HIGH AND EAST OF WEAK TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY.
A BRISK NORTH WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
A few other items of note in the near term include this morning's freezing temperatures and associated frost. The high shifts eastward by tmrw, and return flow slys start to develop.
302 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY.
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE BUT AT TIMES HAVE BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND BISCAYNE BAY, WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED, NEAR THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
340 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PUSHES EAST LATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OUT INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE EASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CALM/ LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT HAVE DROPPED WELL INTO THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER. LIKELY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
No major changes to the forecast for tonight, as high pressure builds into the lower Ohio Valley. Gusty westerly winds will continue late this afternoon with gusts as high as 25-35 mph as we sit in a sharp pressure gradient on the back side of a strong low pressure system. We'll enter a return flow Sat night causing low temps to be a little warmer mainly ranging through the 30s with a few upper 20s over east central KY.
A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR OCCURS WEST ALONG HIGHWAY 61 FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S.
WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AR. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS THIS HIGH IS FCST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. THE NEXT TROF WILL DIG OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE SUN. FURTHER DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW ON MON AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN ROCKIES. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACRS TX.
Updated hourly temperature grids to account for wildly varying cooling conditions as the center of high pressure slides southeast through the region. High pressure will move slowly east of the region tonight through Saturday.
WITH A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WITH SOME INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN. 850MB TEMPS ARE SLOWLY GOING TO WARM UP TODAY AND MAY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EAST OF I65 TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH.
347 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING PASSING RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST ACRS WI AND IL. WITH MINIMAL SKY COVER UNDER BROADENING UPPER RIDGING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE PLAINS.
/ISSUED 922 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AREAWIDE UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE U. WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SPLIT FLOW DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY. A LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER TROUGHING MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY SEE THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT. WHICH COULD HAPPEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER AIR.
SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CENTRAL ALABAMA CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. 19 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
/61/ COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 912 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/ NORTHEASTERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION UNDER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES. /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW A GRADUAL RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SFC RIDGING WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE REGION. SFC WIND SPEEDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER NE MN THANKS TO THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AFFECT NE MN TONIGHT. THE ONLY ASPECT TO THIS TROF WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FLOATING OVERHEAD. COOLEST MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH CENTRAL WI WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO UNDERGO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES WHILE RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN TOP TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY. A STRONG TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN. UNSETTLED WX WILL THEN GET WORKED ON BY THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HAS A STRONG JET STREAM SUPPORTING IT.