Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Intermittent light snow showers/flurries and even some freezing drizzle will likely continue through the evening and overnight period. - Freezing drizzle with some minor ice accumulations are possible tonight and Monday morning for areas roughly along a Pleasanton KS to Boonville MO line. Intermittent light snow showers/flurries and even some freezing drizzle will likely linger through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight into Monday morning/early afternoon, freezing drizzle from roughly Pleasanton, KS to Boonville, MO could produce a glaze to maybe a tenth of an inch of ice accretion, and as such a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these counties from 6 pm tonight through noon tomorrow.
Highs this afternoon are 30 degrees colder than normal highs for the beginning of February with temps struggling to reach the low teens. Within the past few hours, received a few reports of light freezing drizzle mixing in along the back edge of snow so cannot rule out some slick spots on roadways through the evening. Sufficient moisture along with temps well below zero within the column suggest the possibility for a mix of light snow and freezing drizzle, particularly where lift is pronounced along and south of I-35. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory where confidence is highest across Anderson and Coffey counties this evening through Monday, but could easily see this expanded further west and north if the freezing drizzle dominants over the light snow.
Dry and warmer than normal conditions continue, transitioning toward a chance for precipitation later in the week. High temperatures are on track to be several degrees above normal today as 500mb flow is mainly zonal across Arizona with a broad trough across the northern tier of the CONUS.
High pressure ridge is settling over the area this afternoon and will shift eastward through Monday night. An upper disturbance will move over the Gulf on Monday night and may bring a small chance of rain to the lower Acadiana area.
955 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 The cold front is currently stalled just south of the Treasure Coast and is expected to remain in that general area overnight before slowly moving northward once again tomorrow as a warm front. Monday's maximum temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s across the north, and upper 70s and low 80s across the south. As the stalled front moves back northward tomorrow as a warm front, rain chances will again increase, with isolated storms possible across Okeechobee county and the Treasure Coast region Monday afternoon, spreading through Osceola and southern Brevard counties by Monday late afternoon/early evening.
410 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Monday.
348 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 Clear weather and cooler air has moved over the area behind the cold front that came through yesterday.
A strong stationary front of cold air to the northeast and warmer air to the southwest has set up over southwest Montana into north-central Idaho this afternoon. Northwest flow with plenty of available moisture will persist through Monday, fueling continued snow showers in the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean will set up with its axis off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, a strong, closed low pressure system will take up residence over Manitoba.
645 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Monday.
619 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure will bring the only day of sunshine all week on Monday.
The ridge will move off to the east by morning, and this will allow some east to southeast winds to develop and allow some low level moisture to bring back in some low clouds and MVFR ceilings between 08/10Z and 08/12Z. High pressure ridge is settling over the area this afternoon and will shift eastward through Monday night. An upper disturbance will move over the Gulf on Monday night and may bring a small chance of rain to the lower Acadiana area.
Temperatures will remain quite cold through the period with only southeast Illinois possibly seeing temperatures above freezing on Monday.
Expect 2 to 5 inches of new snow overnight, with the higher amounts in the higher terrain around Greer Grade. Precipitation and a low cloud deck will obscure terrain, primarily over the Bitterroot, Sapphire, Mission, and Clearwater Ranges, as well as the high peaks near Glacier Park. A strong stationary front of cold air to the northeast and warmer air to the southwest has set up over southwest Montana into north-central Idaho this afternoon. Northwest flow with plenty of available moisture will persist through Monday, fueling continued snow showers in the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean will set up with its axis off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, a strong, closed low pressure system will take up residence over Manitoba.
658 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Monday.
208 PM MST Sun Feb 7 2021 Upper air analysis shows the broad upper trough persisting across much of the CONUS today.
503 PM MST Sun Feb 7 2021 Went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning for central Laramie County.
Could also see some freezing fog in that area due to low dewpoint depressions and plenty of low level moisture due to the snow on the ground. Some indication of MVFR/IFR ceilings formation 08/08Z-08/14Z CKV/BNA/MQY as surface warm front approaches but ceiling errosion CSV possibly as soon as 08/04Z. Freezing fog formation leading to IFR vsbys possible CSV by around 08/09Z-08/15Z if present ceilings CSV due actually erode.
938 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure will build in from the north through Monday night.
552 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 High pressure builds from the west through tonight. This high will provide with clearing skies across the region allowing temperatures to plummet into the teens for the most part, and even into the single digits over the snow covered areas of our eastern mountains.
Increasing chance of rain developing by mid to late week as weak low pressure develops in the deep south and tracks northeast toward the area along a stalled frontal boundary near the area.
Some slight northward progression has occured, but overall, expect little in the way of movement next 12-18 hours, before another surge of colder air progresses from north to south late tonight and tomorrow as low amplitude trough progresses eastward across the central plains. This will result in areas of freezing drizzle and even some light rain showers. Areas near and north of the anticipated front will see this in the form of freezing drizzle and freezing rain. We saw some fairly substantial impacts on bridges today, and expect even more widespread problems tonight and tomorrow.
912 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021 Weak high pressure will be over the forecast area tonight. The ridge will move off to the east by morning, and this will allow some east to southeast winds to develop and allow some low level moisture to bring back in some low clouds and MVFR ceilings between 08/10Z and 08/12Z. High pressure ridge is settling over the area this afternoon and will shift eastward through Monday night. An upper disturbance will move over the Gulf on Monday night and may bring a small chance of rain to the lower Acadiana area.
A pre-frontal sfc trof will bring a WNW wind shift between 08/12Z-15Z. Conditions will shift to a fairly complicated setup thanks to a strong push of polar air south into the southern plains with a cold front nosing into the northeastern corner of the forecast area.
/Issued 822 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021/ Main focus was to include a Special Weather Statement earlier on primarily the northeast mtns for any lingering moisture on roadways refreezing tonight into tomorrow morning as patchy black ice. As the high pressure builds into the area and drier northwesterly low level flow persists, skies are expected to become mostly clear during the overnight hours and remain so into Monday. The high pressure center will move east of the forecast area on Monday morning, and low level winds will shift to southeasterly as a result. Afternoon highs will also be warmer under mostly clear skies, reaching into the upper 50s and 60s.
A 500 mb ridge axis situated 400 miles off the coast of far northern California is weakening tonight while a weak open wave 500 mb trough is on its heels moving eastward.
Otherwise, plan on slightly "warmer" with highs in the single digits above zero.
Scattered fog may impact KLBB through mid morning, with the low stratus deck not expected to reach that far south.
Winds aren't expected to be as strong as they have been on Monday as the the upper level low shifts east. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today.
A cold front resides across southwest Florida with a pleasant cool breeze through the remainder of the night.
Did notice a few observations were slightly cooler than expected across the southern/central valley therefore lowered hourly temps a degree over the next few hours. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 42 60 43 60 / 0 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 37 55 39 56 / 0 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 53 37 54 39 55 / 0 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 34 53 36 55 / 0 10 10 10 30.
Went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning for central Laramie County.
310 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure will bring the only day of sunshine all week on Monday.
359 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure builds over the region today and moves offshore tonight.
However, thermal troughing along the east side of Lake Michigan will induce meso-low development this morning just north of Berrien County in Michigan.
Upper air analysis shows the broad upper trough persisting across much of the CONUS today.
1227 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure will bring the only day of sunshine all week on Monday.
Some freezing drizzle and flurries will still be possible this morning, mainly across the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle where the low level moisture is the deepest. Again confidence is not high on how far northeast the warmer air will make it. Some freezing fog and very light freezing drizzle will be possible again.
TWH Northwest flow aloft over the region with arctic high pressure over the plains.
Could also see some freezing fog in that area due to low dewpoint depressions and plenty of low level moisture due to the snow on the ground. Some indication of MVFR/IFR ceilings formation 08/08Z-08/14Z CKV/BNA/MQY as surface warm front approaches. Also anticipating freezing fog development CSV 08/09Z-08/15Z per low dewpoint depressions and plentiful low level moisture availability due to snow on ground.
259 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Surface freezing line currently bisects Tulsa county, then snakes east/northeast into northwest AR, with areas of light freezing drizzle ongoing mainly north of I-44. Have modeled surface temperatures today fairly close to the HRRR (which did a good job yesterday), with the freezing line slowly sinking south through the afternoon. Parts of northwest AR and adjacent areas of far eastern OK may see temperatures stay a bit above freezing, although some pockets of drizzle/freezing drizzle will remain possible especially in the terrain regions.
243 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Stout isentropic lift in the 280-290K layer of super cooled thermal profile will maintain widespread freezing drizzle across southern Kansas through the morning hours before tapering off in the afternoon from west to east. We could also witness some occasional light snow mixed in at times over southern Kansas with any ice crystal clouds seeding of the low-level super cooled layer.
The areal coverage of drizzle and freezing drizzle will likely increase towards sunrise into Monday morning.
311 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes tonight and Monday.
Radar and some of the high resolution models suggest such a band to linger over portions of Southern Shoshone county overnight into tomorrow and as such have issued a winter weather advisory for parts of Idaho zone 4 to address the resulting snow accumulation mainly south of I-90.
Some frontogenesis along this trough axis is expected today, and the resulting isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will result in light rain and drizzle through early afternoon, and longer in the east. With temperatures at ground level below freezing, this means freezing rain/drizzle over roughly the northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma.
327 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Snow showers later today and tonight - Very cold through the upcoming week - Synoptic snow possible again late in the week -- Snow showers later today and tonight -- The next low pressure system to move east along a baroclinic zone across the Ohio Valley region will bring light synoptic snow from mid to late this afternoon through tonight. This low level convergence will be most focused from Muskegon county southward to Van Buren county.
Dropped values to the lower end of the distribution (down to the 10th percentile).
Radar shows scattered showers over the Lower Straits and western Hawk Channel to the west and southwest of Key West. Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the lower 70s are providing a warm and humid evening, and winds on land are mostly from the NE at 5 mph or less. This boundary is the dying southern end of a cold front which extends from a nor'easter low east of New England southward over the western Atlantic to South Florida.
/issued 912 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021/ Weak high pressure will be over the forecast area tonight. High pressure ridge is settling over the area this afternoon and will shift eastward through Monday night. An upper disturbance will move over the Gulf on Monday night and may bring a small chance of rain to the lower Acadiana area.
328 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 Dry weather is expected until low pressure returns snow to the region late today and tonight.
231 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic today then off the northeast coast tonight. High pressure will move from the mid-Atlantic this morning to off the Northeast coast tonight, while upper flow stays west-southwest. Temp profiles across areas north of Bedford-Lynchburg-Farmville may allow for freezing rain/freezing drizzle but again pops are 20 percent so not anticipating much.
Otherwise, plan on slightly "warmer" with highs in the single digits above zero. High pressure overhead for Tuesday with mostly sunny and continued cold conditions expected. maybe a few lower teens? Yet another mid-level trough rotating through the broad/cold cyclonic flow will push some light snow chances in south of the area with mainly an increase in mid cloud into our area.
High pressure moves in this morning which will help bring an end to early morning lake effect snow showers north of the New York Thruway. With the high pressure in place, today will be cold and quiet.
Tonight After the snow comes to an end, high pressure will slowly work into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, and attempt to scour out low-level clouds.
Have yet to see dewpoints near the coast reach the low and mid 60s, so sea fog mention was omitted for now.
As as result, areas of freezing drizzle and some freezing fog continued across the area generally across the southern 2-3 tiers of counties with a few flurries occurring farther north into the colder air. Dense freezing fog has been pretty limited, most likely because of relatively drier air advecting into the area from the northeast. The RAP13 shows this nicely with the light freezing precip ending from west to east.
305 AM PST Mon Feb 8 2021 Dry weather with cooler temperatures expected today.
Cloud cover will increase substantially today and persist into Tuesday as a mid-level ridge breaks down just off the West Coast, allowing a weak shearing disturbance to move over California and Nevada. Impact-wise, minimal Sierra snowfall is expected with the weak, disorganized disturbance Tuesday and there is only a 10-20% chance (per blended guidance/NBM) for an inch or more of snowfall in the high Sierra.
Broad cyclonic flow remains throughout the CONUS with the closed upper low sitting just south of the Hudson Bay. The 00Z TOP sounding shows saturation from about 800mb to the surface with the lowest layers within the DGZ. This setup has provided just enough isentropic lift with enough moisture to produce intermittent light snow in some places, while east central KS has at times had freezing drizzle despite the low levels being in the DGZ - probably with temps more favorable for supercooled liquid.
In terms of snowfall amounts, we leaned towards the high-resolution models, which only gave around 0.
633 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 Aviation - Snow showers later today and tonight - Very cold through the upcoming week - Synoptic snow possible again late in the week -- Snow showers later today and tonight -- The next low pressure system to move east along a baroclinic zone across the Ohio Valley region will bring light synoptic snow from mid to late this afternoon through tonight. This low level convergence will be most focused from Muskegon county southward to Van Buren county.
Freezing fog has developed, mainly on the Plateau where heavy snow has caused temps to drop rapidly to the dewpoint overnight. A few locations have been reporting around a quarter mile, and that patchy dense freezing fog looks to continue through just after sunrise before southerly winds help warm up temps a bit. Otherwise expecting dry conditions today with highs rebounding to the low 50s for most, with some mid 50s in the south and mid to upper 40s in the north/Plateau. Areas with heavier snow may be cooler than the mid 40s. Warm temps will continue Tuesday, but a Midwest trough may bring some precip chances mainly to the northwest during the day.
301 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Freezing fog has developed, mainly on the Plateau where heavy snow has caused temps to drop rapidly to the dewpoint overnight. A few locations have been reporting around a quarter mile, and that patchy dense freezing fog looks to continue through just after sunrise before southerly winds help warm up temps a bit. Otherwise expecting dry conditions today with highs rebounding to the low 50s for most, with some mid 50s in the south and mid to upper 40s in the north/Plateau. Areas with heavier snow may be cooler than the mid 40s. Warm temps will continue Tuesday, but a Midwest trough may bring some precip chances mainly to the northwest during the day.
And those are the warmer readings for the FA with the colder areas across NE ND and into NW MN seeing temps in the upper 20s to low 30s below and wind chills as cold as -50 this morning. Tuesday guidance brings slightly warmer temps into the afternoon with a possible above zero reading in SE ND and most areas rising into the single digits below for highs. Our 500mb pattern of NNW flow aloft will continue to bring arctic sourced surface air to the region as synoptic blocking persists across North America.
530 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 Dry weather is expected until low pressure returns snow to the region late today and tonight.
Dry conditions will prevail through mid week, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
532 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Low CIGS and visbys were making their way into the KPVW and KLBB terminals early this morning behind a slow moving cold front. Winds are expected to shift around to the west at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon as the cold front retreats back east.
524 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Stout isentropic lift in the 280-290K layer of super cooled thermal profile will maintain widespread freezing drizzle across southern Kansas through the morning hours before tapering off in the afternoon from west to east. We could also witness some occasional light snow mixed in at times over southern Kansas with any ice crystal clouds seeding of the low-level super cooled layer.
516 AM MST Mon Feb 8 2021 The closed low rotating around the Canadian Prairie and high pressure off the Pacific NW will maintain a tight pressure gradient overhead through the short term.
628 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then an Alberta Clipper will track through the state late tonight into Tuesday.
High temperatures range from the lower 70s across the Hill Country to upper 70s over the southwest area counties. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower 50s across the Hill Country to lower 60s across the coastal plains.
425 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 Today and into tomorrow we'll be on the backside of a high pressure system and easterly winds will gradually become more SE as the afternoon goes on. This will increase the available low level moisture as well as bring in some warmer air with Temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area.
More sunshine the further southeast into MS you go as a warm front lifts north into the area. The warm front will stall across the area becoming a stationary front.
404 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Calm winds and drier air in the northern 1/3 of the CWA allowing for cooler temps this morning in the mid to upper 30s, where the remainder of the CWA has readings spanning the 40s.
653 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure builds over the region today and moves offshore tonight.
By Tuesday, an upper level low will begin to wobble westward across Canada, resulting in relatively zonal flow across our area. Overnight lows during this time will also be a touch warmer, as temperatures range between 0 and -8 degF.
A cold front that has stalled over Central Florida will start to drift back northward as a warm front tonight, leading to a further increase in moisture and spurring some scattered showers beginning in the early morning hours on Tuesday.
It'll be dry, as a relatively strong high pressure sets up shop over Iowa.
A stationary front across south Florida will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front later today with an increasingly warm and moist air mass spreading north into the forecast area which should keep a good deal of clouds around through the afternoon. As a frontal boundary across south Florida lifts north as a warm front later today some SHRA may develop from VRB-SUA by late morning and into the afternoon with some also reaching MLB-TIX by mid afternoon. A stationary front across south Florida will start to move north as a warm front late this afternoon with winds veering southeasterly south of Sebastian Inlet by this evening.
However, a cold front will move south to near the I-20 corridor by late this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler across the Big Country with 50s and 60s. For tonight, the cold front will move a little further south.
At the surface, an Arctic high pressure system will be over the forecast area in varying degrees all week.
High pressure will remain overhead throughout the short term, but a moderating arctic airmass should allow for modestly milder highs Tuesday with light southwesterly flow.
229 AM PST Mon Feb 8 2021 The blanket of low clouds and areas of fog over coastal areas will mix out by late morning, leaving fair and cooler weather for the day.
357 AM MST Mon Feb 8 2021 Strong high pressure looks to remain anchored over Alberta and Saskatchewan which will keep our area in the Arctic air mass for this week. There will be somewhat of a battle over southern MT between sinking, drier air associated with the high pressure and moist air flowing over the cold air.
626 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure builds over the region today and moves offshore tonight.
The low level clouds will expand into the lower Rio Grande Valley later this morning, brining borderline VFR and MVFR conditions through the afternoon.
Have lowered Min Temps several degrees from the previous forecast, with readings ranging from the single digits below zero along the lakeshore to the lower 20s below zero in north central WI.
/issued 404 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/ Calm winds and drier air in the northern 1/3 of the CWA allowing for cooler temps this morning in the mid to upper 30s, where the remainder of the CWA has readings spanning the 40s.