Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
342 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Low pressure will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois today. An area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms associated with the low will spread into the KILX CWA over the next couple of hours. Once the rain shield pivots further N/NW out of the area, most CAMs suggest one or more bands of convection developing along/ahead of a trailing cold front late this morning into the afternoon. Showers will linger through much of Sunday as the upper low only slowly lifts northward into the Great Lakes.
Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges 1)Cold front passage on Sunday, with critical fire weather conditions ahead of the front.
A mature, vertically-stacked mid-latitude cyclone is currently in place over the general NE/KS/MO/IA region and currently forcing light rain over portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
948 PM PDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A cold front arrives overnight into Saturday bringing another round of gusty winds and showers.
Mild today, then turning cooler Sunday. Highs near 70 today, cooling into the lower 50s Sunday. A fairly strong upper low with a surface reflection across the Missouri Ozarks will move north to northwest Illinois as the system begins to occlude. The GFS and the EC have come into good agreement with the track of the upper low into northern Indiana Sunday which will bring more showers as a cold pool aloft moves over the area. The upper air pattern will become completely cut off from the northern stream as a large upper ridge/block settles in over southern Canada.
A cold front will approach the region from the west late Saturday and then move across the area on Sunday. Most of the rain with the associated cold front will remain well in advance of the front, which will only reach the Appalachians by Sunday morning.
1035 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Pronounced upper level low continues to pull away to the northeast with a secondary wave diving through Nebraska. The passage of a cold front for the second half of the day will likely bring with it a bump in winds and cloud cover.
This warming trend will be very brief as another Pacific cold front will be quick to follow the fast moving ridge axis. Clearing skies will result in temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below freezing Sunday night across the whole area, which is around 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Model solutions maintain trend from 00z group overall with development of closed upper low. Temperatures will remain more early springlike with daytime highs into the middle 40s for places east of the Laramie Range and about 10-15 degrees cooler to the west. Overnight lows will be below freezing so for avid gardeners enjoying their spring blooms, some action will need to be taken to ensure their flowers can survive the temps and freezing precipitation.
Dry, warm weather to continue for the next couple of days as high pressure remains over the area.
350 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 A broad and slow moving area of low pressure continues its northward trek along the WI/MN border. The next feature of interest is a deep closed low that sends a TROWAL rotating towards our area late on Saturday. In addition, stiff NE flow will probably cause orographically forced rain to hang on to the higher terrain well into the afternoon.
1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Warm front location remains a bit uncertain given variable winds and mixing of dew points that had surged earlier in the day. Showers with embedded non severe thunderstorms to be found farther north this evening to extend forecast area wide overnight as an upper low approaches Joplin toward 12z. May see an uptick in convection as the upper low approaches late tonight but additional severe storms are not expected. Cool and wet conditions are then expected on Saturday as cold advection on the back side of the low results in lingering light rain/drizzle throughout much of Saturday. heights will rebound on Sunday as the upper low departs eastward and ridging develops ahead of the next wave.
1146 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Tonight: Cold front will continue to push southeast into shallow moisture. Wavy warm front snakes across northeast OK, with good convergence and richer surface moisture to the south. Virtually all models suggest storms/precipitation will become widespread in the vicinity of cold front and warm front late this afternoon and evening.
Cloud cover will gradually increase through the day on Sunday as an upper trough approaches the area. This negatively tilted trough is well agreed upon among the majority of ensemble members, and is expected to close into an H5 low sometime Sunday afternoon or evening.
The main concern will be a prefrontal trough that will produce showers and thunderstorms moving into the Nature Coast this afternoon and spreading across the forecast area tonight and Sunday.
318 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 A complex low pressure system with several frontal systems will result in unsettled weather through the weekend.
150 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will push through the region through this evening as an upper level low pressure system lifts northeast across the Great Lakes. With this system lifting fairly quickly through the region, another dry slot will work into the region Saturday night as the region starts out just ahead of the closed upper low and then a lull as the low moves through the NW portion of the forecast area. Temperatures will drop to near 50 ahead of the low, with mid to upper 40s in the west.
A low pressure center will spin across the Mid Ms Valley toward the Great Lakes causing a trough and surface front to sweep across Middle Tennessee today. More showers and storms are forming with the main trough axis just west of the Mississippi River, and these will reach our western counties toward daybreak.
Strong synoptic forcing for ascent is noted downstream of this trough, enhanced by the right entrance region of a strong jet streak. Generally dry weather is expected today, but a few showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the actual Pacific cold front, mainly in west TN or northeast MS. Temperatures will be a bit cooler behind this front with highs ranging from the mid 60s in northwest AR to the mid 70s in northeast MS. Temperatures will rebound into the low/mid 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and southwest winds 8-15 mph.
An upper low will deepen as it shifts across the midwest on Saturday. A warm front will lift north over the forecast area later in the afternoon. Ridging will prevent much forward progress of the aforementioned upper low and have maintained low PoPs through Sunday as the upper low slowly transition east along the southern Great Lakes. Also, the trend of cooler temperatures will lead to more seasonal values.
/issued 1056 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/ Widespread convection continues across much of northeast and north-central Louisiana late this evening with additional convection developing across portions of deep east Texas and southeast Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. However, main cold front across Oklahoma is quickly diving southeast, generating a renewed severe threat upstream across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and portions of southern Arkansas.
1038 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Latest upper level analysis has weak closed low just to the southeast of the Black Hills, with a sharp ridge moving into the Northern Rockies. Sharp upper ridge crosses the area Saturday. Upper ridge shifts quickly east Saturday night as a strong cold front drops through the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be cooler, in the 40s to lower 50s. Large upper trough will settle across the western into central US. Upper low is likely to develop within the trough over the Great Basin region by midweek, and then slowly track east across the Rockies toward late week.
Fuels are a mixture of cured fine dead fuels on top of an underlying green base, so despite the low RH values, conditions should stay in the elevated category.
158 AM MDT Sat Apr 10 2021 A strong Pacific weather system and cold front will bring cool and windy conditions along with another round of snow showers today into tonight. Strong upper-level trough with associated upper-level jet streak will impact the region today through tonight. Cold front moves east across the region this morning, which will increase instability across the region and help to mix down strong winds aloft. This is followed by a second stronger cold front Saturday evening into the overnight which is co-located with the upper trough.
a cold frontal boundary lays across the Canadian Provinces. We have a dry cold front passing through early Sunday morning around 12Z with northwest winds picking up behind the front.
Low pressure was centered over Lake Superior into northwest Ontario and will move northeast away from the region today bringing some brief drying to most areas. An upper low will lift north toward Lake Michigan late tonight with another upper trough approaching from the west.
259 AM MDT Sat Apr 10 2021 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge over eastern Montana and trough over British Columbia dipping into the Pacific Northwest. Today through Sunday: Ridge across the region will stay in place till the mid afternoon, then push into North Dakota as an upper level cold front at the base for the trough pushes into central Montana. The cold front will hit in the late afternoon and last through the early evening hours. The highest chance for precip sits in the far east over the Big Sheeps running north into Sheridan county where maybe up to a tenth of a inch is possible through the whole event.
However widely scattered showers/storms associated with the cntl CONUS trof/pre-frontal sfc trof are now beginning to pop up over the nwrn zones and upstream. Sfc analysis shows weak low pressure over the TX Piney Woods with the cold front extending swwd into the Hill Country. meanwhile over our forecast area, temps are ranging from the 60s in rain-cooled air over the nrn zones to the lower/mid 70s over the majority of the area. while further south, highs in the lower 80s are expected. A seasonal (or slightly cooler than normal) night looks on tap as the 40s dewpoint airmass filters over the area, with wakeup temps for Sunday expected to run from the upper 40s to mid 50s (slightly warmer near the coast).
Persistent upper level low pressure and slightly cooler air dominates much of the week. A broad dry line associated with a mother low pressure system over WI will continue to influence the weather through tonight. Clouds will increase and thicken during the predawn hours when a warm front lifts north into the afternoon hours. For Saturday, mid to upper 70s are expected for the lowlands, some areas potentially reaching up into the 80s, with upper 50s to lower 70s for the higher elevations. Closed low drifts northward, ending the SE OH POPs Sunday. Closed upper low gets ingested weakens and will become part of a rather large elongated area of upper level low pressure that will stretch across the bulk of the northern tier of the CONUS.
A cold front, attached to the aforementioned low pressure system, will begin moving into the Big Country this evening. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northeast, ushering in much cooler but more seasonable air.
A pleasant weekend is in store, especially today, as winds will not be a problem as a high pressure ridge axis moves across Kansas today. The low level thermal profile will be warming throughout the day, and that combined with direct insolation will result in temperatures warming well into the mid to upper 60s, following early morning temperatures from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures may be slowly falling (cold air advection overwhelming warming due to insolation), so the afternoon temperature forecast is not of the highest confidence, especially the farther north you go.
Cooler and breezy conditions this afternoon. The next wave is already moving ashore the Pacific Northwest and will drive the next cold front across the region Sunday night. Flow aloft transitions to a sharply amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific with a large upper low becoming near stationary over the western CONUS.
336 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Fairly nice today, then a cooler pattern ahead. Rain showers continued into the predawn hours associated with an upper low pressure system gradually migrating into eastern Kansas. Afternoon low relative humidity falls to the low 20th percentile west of Highway 281, but decreasing wind speeds should preclude fire weather conditions. On Sunday the western upper trough emerges from the northern Rockies and translates across the northern/central Plains, sending a cold front south through our region during the day.
109 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 IFR/LIFR ceilings, and MVFR visibilities, will continue to develop over portions of the Coastal Plains in advance of a cold front. A cold front will approach the area tonight, reaching the northern counties around 09Z. Winds will shift to the northeast and cooler and even drier conditions are expected in the wake of the front. Temperatures will be cooler for Saturday, if one can call the 90s "cool.
High pressure will remain across the region through the first half of the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the state Saturday night into Sunday.
This will lead to a fairly cold night with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Enhanced mixing will allow for temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 60s over most of the CWA.
Overcast skies and plenty of low level moisture should result in only very slowly falling temperatures tonight, with lows mostly in the lower 50s. The question will be how much sunshine can break through the low clouds. Based southeast flow/cold air damming signature, will continue to undercut NBM temps in favor of the cooler Superblend east of the mountains. Sunday should be the warmest day of the long-range period south and east of the Allegheny Front, where highs should reach the low to mid 70s. Expect cooler temperatures for next work-week, as upper-level low pressure continues to slowly progress from the Great Lakes across the northeastern United States.
Tonight and Sunday, another round of precipitation moves into western Wisconsin in response to an upper low moving into the southern Great Lakes region. Today's max temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 50s across the eastern half of the CWA and mid 50s for the western half. Cloud cover will keep min temps in the low 40s tonight. Temperatures fair better on Sunday, reaching into the mid to upper 50s in the Twin Cities to low 60s across the Buffalo Ridge.
356 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 (Issued 356 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021) Today through Sunday: The low pressure system currently over southeast Missouri will slowly push northeastward through the day and bring us another round of rain. Farther west the low level winds will help focus light to moderate rain over the western half of the area tonight into Sunday.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front continues to make its way through West Central Texas with gusty northeast winds. High pressure will build in behind the front as the morning continues, which should allow winds to diminish as noontime approaches. This cooler airmass should result in high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s today. This is about 15-20 degrees cooler than than what we saw yesterday, yet is actually right around seasonal normals! Otherwise, abundant sunshine is expected with winds continuing to decrease this afternoon. Overnight, skies should remain clear as the area of high pressure moves eastward. Resulting winds will shift out of the southeast, which should start to bring slightly warmer air back into west Texas and allow for low temperatures to be a few degrees higher than last night.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ A well defined cold front will continue to move southeast across North and Central Texas overnight as a deep upper low rotates across the Central Plains. Much drier, cooler and breezy conditions will filter in behind the front.
Highs today will be a decent amount cooler in comparison to yesterday. The pressure gradient for today looks to remain rather tight keeping the winds brisk which is likely to make the afternoon temperatures feel cooler as dew point temperatures have taken a tumble during the night. Tonight, ridging is expected to build into the region which will allow the winds to diminish and go fairly calm for the night. Areas of Central Kansas are likely to see temperatures near freezing tonight. Ridging will continue into Sunday and all the short range model ensembles indicate WAA will return to the region. As such, Sunday will be warmer than today but this is not expected to last too long.
324 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain developing mid day, a few storms too - Mild today, then colder -- Rain developing mid day, a few storms too -- Latest water vaper imagery shows a well defined upper low over eastern Kansas moving east. Models have had this well handled for a few days and forecast this low to move toward Michigan tonight/Sunday and become negatively tilted. Showers will decrease in coverage overnight tonight but not completely end due to the presence of the upper low, which remains over the Lower Peninsula through Sunday.
A pleasant weekend is in store, especially today, as winds will not be a problem as a high pressure ridge axis moves across Kansas today. The low level thermal profile will be warming throughout the day, and that combined with direct insolation will result in temperatures warming well into the mid to upper 60s, following early morning temperatures from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures may be slowly falling (cold air advection overwhelming warming due to insolation), so the afternoon temperature forecast is not of the highest confidence, especially the farther north you go. After Sunday's cold front pushes through, we will begin a prolonged period of below normal temperatures along with a period of at least slightly above normal precipitation.
An upper level trough currently over the Pac NW will invade the region late Saturday night through Sunday. Rain/snow showers will be possible behind a cold front Sunday morning, mainly for north central SD. The upper low currently located in the central Plains will shift into the lower Great Lakes by Sunday evening while an upper trough moving through western Canada and into the northern Rockies on Sunday moves into the area.
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Unsettled conditions persist through the weekend as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. A stationary front will linger north of the region Saturday as a secondary warm front moves northward late Saturday into Sunday. Then, cold front will cross the region through Sunday evening.
458 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a weakening mid/upper level low north of Lake Superior and a stronger mid/upper level low over eastern Kansas. At the surface, a weak trough extended southward from central Lake Superior. Today, no precipitation is expected through most of the day as mid level ridging builds over the area. Under cloudy skies, mild conditions will still prevail with highs climbing into the mid and upper 50s with cooler conditions along the Great Lakes. Tonight, expect rain to spread across Upper Michigan with broad area of isentropic lift and fgen associated with the trowal region of the approaching mid/upper level low. In addition, stiff NE flow will probably cause orographically forced rain to hang on to the higher terrain well into the afternoon.
A broad upper trough moving into the Rockies along the Canadian border will push a cold front across our region late in the afternoon and through the evening.
/issued 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021/ Dry northwesterly flow will dominate aloft for the next 24 hours while at the surface the high pressure system will slowly pull east. The modified Canadian airmass will remain over the FA for one more day resulting in high temperatures being about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and maxing out in the 70s area wide.
and Sunday The main focus of the short-term portion of the forecast will focus on rain chances through the weekend along with slightly cooler temperatures. Today: A low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi Valley has continued a more westward trek with the latest guidance. The low is forecast to shift from near St. The increased cloud cover and precipitation will help keep temperatures cooler this afternoon, with most locations only warming into the low to possibly mid 50s. Continued wrap-around moisture and weak forcing across the area, will lead to scattered rain showers throughout the day, with the main focus being across central/north-central Wisconsin as a weak cold front approaches.
Dry, northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging just west of the California coast will support continued above-normal temperatures again for the region on Saturday afternoon.
/NEW/ /Today through Sunday/ High pressure is building in behind the cold front and north winds will gradually diminish later today under sunny skies. The remainder of the area will be in the low to mid 80s. High temperatures tomorrow will range between 80 degrees east of I-35 to around 90 degrees near Breckenridge and Graham.
An unsettled and cooler weather pattern is expected during the coming week. The closed low will be slow to depart and is progged to slowly transition east across northern IN and OH on Sunday. Sfc temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Sunday but still slightly above normal.
559 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Low pressure will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois today. An area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms associated with the low will spread into the KILX CWA over the next couple of hours. Once the rain shield pivots further N/NW out of the area, most CAMs suggest one or more bands of convection developing along/ahead of a trailing cold front late this morning into the afternoon. Showers will linger through much of Sunday as the upper low only slowly lifts northward into the Great Lakes.
409 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 The main forecast challenges this weekend deal with a brief stint of an upper ridge and its breakdown. Temperatures jump today under a strong warm air advection scheme, then fire weather concerns return Sunday as a cold front brings gusty winds. The closed upper low responsible for dreary conditions yesterday continues on its eastward trek toward the Great Lakes. This evening into tonight, the H85 thermal ridge crosses the area and is quickly followed by the cold front. Blended in some cooler guidance for the usual cool spots in the panhandle, Platte River Valley, and Calamus basin. Most spots should bottom out in the lower to mid 30s. With the upper ridge broken down, western Nebraska enters northwest flow aloft, especially with the next closed low swinging down into the northern Plains.
830 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Rainfall associated with the pre-frontal trough continues to push eastward this morning. The main cold front is still back to the west. Breaks in the cloud cover will take place later this morning and into the afternoon with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s. As mentioned above, there is some concern that widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop along a cold front late this afternoon/early this evening, as it shifts slowly southeastward into the region. A beautiful day is expected across the region on Sunday, with sunny skies and light/moderate west-southwest winds along the northern rim of a ridge of high pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast.
1029 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Unsettled conditions persist through the weekend as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. A stationary front will linger north of the region this afternoon as a secondary warm front moves northward later this afternoon into Sunday. Then, a cold front will cross the region through Sunday evening.