Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
258 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A cold front located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon will continue to slowly drift southward into southern MO tonight. To the north of the cold front, light showers driven by increasing low to mid-level WAA and frontogenesis will develop this evening and increase in coverage overnight, mainly along and south of I-70. Saturday will be a cool, cloudy, and damp day with showers continuing over the southern half of the forecast area and high temps 10 to 15F cooler than today. An upper-level trough will reach the Midwest Saturday night causing the stalled cold front to lift north as a warm front.
The next upper trough and associated sfc reflection will cross the region Sat, with dismal moisture return. Cold front will push through the FA in the afternoon, with breezy conds in spots, mainly in NW SD and the lee of the Black Hills.
An upper level trough will track east through Nebraska over the next couple of days, which will provide some upper level forcing for cloud formation. Overnight precipitation is expected to be in the form of snow, becoming rainfall on Saturday morning as temperatures warm up past freezing. Temperatures tonight should be somewhat warmer due to cloud cover over the area, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 After a couple of warm days, the upcoming weather will be cooler but seasonally mild heading into the latter part of November.
1033 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020 High pressure will prevail across the area through the weekend, as a weak coastal trough remains nearby.
Weak high pressure is moving over the Northern Rockies this afternoon, but lingering moisture and upslope flow is keeping cloud cover and showers in northwest Montana.
With more extensive cloud cover than expected, temperatures have been kept a bit cooler than forecast, with light snow reported in parts of the far north under these low ceilings. Cloud cover is expected to diminish through the afternoon and into the evening, with a calm, mostly clear night tonight as high pressure moves off to our east. Overnight lows will drop into the lower teens north to lower 20s south. There is relatively good consensus between guidance in the progressive flow pattern aloft, just subtle differences in amplitude and timing of the ridge/trough placement.
The above mentioned cold front is forecast to more or less stall overnight and become nearly stationary on Saturday- near or just north of Haskell and Throckmorton counties. Have highs a bit cooler tomorrow afternoon -especially across the northern Big Country- where more cloud cover and the proximity of the front will keep temperatures mainly in the upper 60s.
231 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin today, pulling up nearly stationary in a line from Lamesa to Pecos. Ironically, it will actually be cooler tomorrow due to an increase in moisture from the southeast that will keep low clouds into the early afternoon. Went slightly above MET/MAV guidance for tomorrow expecting an afternoon breakout, but if the clouds manage to hang in all day temps could be a few degrees cooler.
257 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 (Issued 256 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020) Tonight through Saturday night: Northwest winds will become lighter this evening as high pressure moves in from the west. High clouds over southern Wisconsin behind the cold front will get pushed south as the high nudges in. The high will move across southern Wisconsin on Saturday, keeping precipitation south of the state through Saturday night.
230 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A cold front currently located from SE Kansas through Central Missouri is slowing moving south. An upper level trough will track across the Plains on Saturday then into our area Saturday night. As the trough moves across the Plains into Missouri it will enhance the shower activity.
1201 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Moisture remains confined to the lower levels and and expected scattered to possibly broken cu through the afternoon within VFR. High pressure stretches from the Atlantic across the southeast states and northern gulf coast this morning. Weak ridging is aloft across the northern gulf coast.
Weak upper ridging continues to persist over the region through today and into Saturday before slightly weakening. Weak isentropic lift and weak warm air advection with increasing moisture in the low levels have brought clouds and a few isolated showers over the marine area this morning. Furthermore, a cold front will begin to slowly move over the central plains through Saturday. High temps Saturday will be similar to todays highs across the region, maybe a degree or two warmer in some locations.
1121 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 The cold front has pushed through much of the area, with it currently stretched from northern Michigan southward into the Southern Plains. A tightened pressure on the east side of the high will move overhead, resulting in breezy conditions today with gusts of 20-25 mph expected.
Broad and deep ridging persists across the southeast CONUS this afternoon as quasizonal flow dominates over the OH Valley and Great Lakes region. As the noted cold front slides slowly southeast this evening, surface moisture convergence will prompt frontal convection across the OH Valley and Midsouth regions, all while weak moisture advection prevails across the TN Valley. A cold front will be situated near the northern border of the forecast area Saturday evening with skies partly cloudy and temperatures mild for late November mainly in the 50s. Clouds increase overnight as an upper trough deepens over the northern plains states.
Overall the previous fcst remains spot on as high pressure prevails today. Mostly VFR through the period as high pressure prevails. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 69 47 67 46 / 0 0 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 68 45 65 44 / 0 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 42 68 45 64 43 / 0 0 0 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 65 43 62 42 / 0 0 0 10 50.
338 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020 High pressure will prevail across the area through the weekend, as a weak coastal trough remains nearby.
1035 AM MST Fri Nov 20 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the northwest of the region, with mostly clear skies across the area. Temps are cooler this morning compared to the last few, upper 20s and 30s.
Deep layer ridging apparent on water vapor imagery and CIMMS mean- layer analyses supports a broad expanse of dry and sinking air over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the extreme western North Atlantic.
223 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A cold front stretching across southeast Kansas this afternoon is progged to sink southward into Oklahoma tonight with increasing chances for post-frontal showers as we head toward sunrise as the moisture depth within the column gradually deepens. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be on the increase as a positively tilted mid/upper trough emerges from the Rockies late Sat night. Precipitation should wane from west to east early on Sun as large-scale forcing for subsidence spreads over the region in the wake of the trough.
The low ceilings will then filter into DHT/AMA by the late morning hours around 16-17z with the precipitation holding off through the day tomorrow. /Issued 233 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020/ A cold front near the Canadian River early this morning will continue to move south across the rest of the Texas Panhandle by sunrise. High temperatures are expected to be some 20 degrees cooler today as compared to yesterday's record breaking highs.
With dewpoints now up into the 40s and 50s, lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than previous nights and range from the mid 40s to low 50s. Clouds will also begin increasing tonight into tomorrow as a weak cold front settles southward into Middle Tennessee, but front should only knock high temperatures down a couple of degrees for Saturday.
324 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Clouds have built back across the region, and will linger throughout much of the upcoming weekend, as Low pressure and a frontal boundary impact the Midwest.
Zonal flow will eventually give way to weak ridging late tonight and into tomorrow, which will then bring dry weather, mild days, and cool nights through the weekend.
Broad area of high pressure over the region today brought cooler temperatures into the CWA with current readings in the 30s. An area of low pressure and upper level trough will approach the region from northern Montana late tonight into the morning hours on Saturday. This area is where good WAA will intersect the upper level trough and mid level frontogenesis. The decent forcing should over come the low level dry air around 0Z or after.
Temperatures will be cooler and more seasonal today and Saturday than they have been this past week.
A low level coastal trough along the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida coast continues to push inland into tonight. Breezy onshore flow continues this afternoon and relaxes overnight with the trough moving inland. Drier air and subsidence under a building mid level ridge near the coastal Carolinas will keep resultant convection shallow in nature. Due to persistent onshore flow, overnight lows will be above normal ranging from the mid to upper 50s across inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
The surface cold front has lingered in southeast KS as a stationary front through the day; meanwhile, frontogenesis at 700mb has kept mid-level cloud cover over east central KS since this morning. After 12Z Saturday morning, isentropic lift increases at the 300- 305K layers, so rain chances increase from south to north through the morning and especially afternoon when we have the highest PoPs.
811 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020 High pressure will prevail across the area through the weekend, as a weak coastal trough remains nearby.
A cold front currently located from SE Kansas through Central Missouri is slowing moving south. An upper level trough will track across the Plains on Saturday then into our area Saturday night. As the trough moves across the Plains into Missouri it will enhance the shower activity.
410 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020 Dry conditions and warmer weather will continue into the weekend.
Temperatures tonight have begun to fall down into the lower 50s to upper 40s and will continue to drop into the low to mid 40s by early tomorrow morning. However, this is still 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the previous chilly mornings from earlier this week. A quasi-zonal pattern present at the start of Saturday will gradually evolve into a more amplified longwave pattern as a trough in western Canada digs southward into the central and eastern CONUS.
Cold front that moved through the dvn cwa last night was stalling to our south, from central IL to western OK. Where there has been more cloud cover temperatures at mid afternoon were in the lower to mid 50s. Saturday: High pressure will be moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, while low pressure and stalled frontal boundary will be located in the Mid-MS Vly. Highs will range from the lower to mid 40s north to the upper 40s south.
610 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020 High pressure will prevail across the area through the weekend, as a weak coastal trough remains nearby.
As high pressure centered over the Dakotas spreads east tonight into Saturday morning, this will allow skies to clear out and winds to drop to near calm, setting up fairly good radiational cooling conditions. As the high pressure center shifts to the east of the WFO MPX coverage area by daybreak, this will allow for warmer return flow on the backside of the high into the area.
Much cooler temperatures today across the Panhandles as the cold front passed through during the early morning hours today. Temperatures are forecast to be about 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday with some high clouds present. Low clouds will begin to move into the forecast area tonight with the potential for temperatures to remain a bit warmer, so forecast temperatures were adjusted a few degrees warmer than NBM.
/issued 231 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020/ A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin today, pulling up nearly stationary in a line from Lamesa to Pecos. Ironically, it will actually be cooler tomorrow due to an increase in moisture from the southeast that will keep low clouds into the early afternoon. Went slightly above MET/MAV guidance for tomorrow expecting an afternoon breakout, but if the clouds manage to hang in all day temps could be a few degrees cooler.
/issued 300 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020/ The forecast area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the short term period. Meanwhile, a cold front dropping southward through the Ohio River Valley will begin to impinge upon the area of high pressure, and weak upper-level troughing will set up at the end of the period. Saturday morning lows will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s, and highs will reach the upper 60s to mid- 70s.
602 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A cold front stretching across southeast Kansas this afternoon is progged to sink southward into Oklahoma tonight with increasing chances for post-frontal showers as we head toward sunrise as the moisture depth within the column gradually deepens. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be on the increase as a positively tilted mid/upper trough emerges from the Rockies late Sat night. Precipitation should wane from west to east early on Sun as large-scale forcing for subsidence spreads over the region in the wake of the trough.
and most of this will remain in the highest elevations over 10kft. A weak trough axis passes on Saturday morning which will shunt any lingering moisture east of the Continental Divide. Expect clearing skies with a mainly sunny afternoon, however temperatures will back off by 5-8 degrees behind this trough/weak system. Weak ridging and height rises will move in from the west overnight on Saturday, however valley inversions will remain quite strong and a chilly night is expected area-wide.
510 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A weak cold front passed through the region this morning bringing cloudy skies and cooler temperatures. This cold front has stalled out along the I-44 corridor.
459 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Stratocumulus trying to hang tough mainly north of I-90 this afternoon but high pressure and associated subsidence has been keeping it's southward progress in check. High pressure will build over the area tonight leading to clearing skies and light winds. Saturday is looking like a perfect latter November day thanks to high pressure holding over the area.
603 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A cold front located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon will continue to slowly drift southward into southern MO tonight. To the north of the cold front, light showers driven by increasing low to mid-level WAA and frontogenesis will develop this evening and increase in coverage overnight, mainly along and south of I-70. Saturday will be a cool, cloudy, and damp day with showers continuing over the southern half of the forecast area and high temps 10 to 15F cooler than today. An upper-level trough will reach the Midwest Saturday night causing the stalled cold front to lift north as a warm front.
02Z Surface analysis places a 1032 mb ridge of high pressure over East Tennessee, Northern Georgia, and the Carolinas. As of 8 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 50s to lower 60s on the back side of high pressure.
Cold front currently located just north of I-44 early this evening. /Issued 215 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020/ Shallow cold front poised to enter far NE OK this afternoon, with the boundary to slowly sag further into the area overnight. Front will move very little for much of Saturday, and again the highest rain chances with potential for isolated storms remaining north of the boundary.
305 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Broad area of high pressure over the region today brought cooler temperatures into the CWA with current readings in the 30s. An area of low pressure and upper level trough will approach the region from northern Montana late tonight into the morning hours on Saturday. This area is where good WAA will intersect the upper level trough and mid level frontogenesis. The decent forcing should over come the low level dry air around 0Z or after.
246 AM EST Sat Nov 21 2020 Mid level ridging will continue to hold over northern Florida today and tonight before pushing east into the Atlantic on Sunday as a broad trough swings through the central and eastern CONUS. A series of weak impulses on the southern edge of this mid level ridge will translate to periods of sprinkles and light showers continuing through the rest of the weekend, but significant downpours are not expected. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure to the north of Florida will keep moderate northeast to east winds in place through the rest of the weekend.
The surface cold front has lingered in southeast KS as a stationary front through the day; meanwhile, frontogenesis at 700mb has kept mid-level cloud cover over east central KS since this morning. After 12Z Saturday morning, isentropic lift increases at the 300- 305K layers, so rain chances increase from south to north through the morning and especially afternoon when we have the highest PoPs. While there may be some lift associated with the trough to keep light rain possible through the overnight, the better forcing appears to be further north, so only have slight chance or chance PoPs before drying out by sunrise Sunday morning.
Deese The forecast area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the short term period. Meanwhile, a cold front dropping southward through the Ohio River Valley will begin to impinge upon the area of high pressure, and weak upper-level troughing will set up at the end of the period. Saturday morning lows will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s, and highs will reach the upper 60s to mid- 70s.
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 Weak low level warm advection in control across the northern plains tonight as a warm front moves east. On Saturday, we expect increasing clouds with a weak short wave trough and an associated cold front enter the picture. With more extensive cloud cover than expected, temperatures have been kept a bit cooler than forecast, with light snow reported in parts of the far north under these low ceilings. Cloud cover is expected to diminish through the afternoon and into the evening, with a calm, mostly clear night tonight as high pressure moves off to our east. Overnight lows will drop into the lower teens north to lower 20s south. There is relatively good consensus between guidance in the progressive flow pattern aloft, just subtle differences in amplitude and timing of the ridge/trough placement.
Adjusted low temps to the latest NBM values which are slightly cooler for the overnight, and also interpolated hourly temps based on this cooler trend. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 48 67 45 58 / 0 0 10 40 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 46 65 44 55 / 0 0 10 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 47 64 43 55 / 0 0 10 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 43 62 40 52 / 0 0 10 60 10.
The best chance of rain looks to be tonight into Sunday as a couple of short wave troughs move across to help increase the instability and lift. In the low levels, another cold front moves through the area tonight which will increase the upslope flow again and it will help to keep the low level moisture in place. The rain may mix with the snow at times Sunday night, but no accumulation of snow is expected at this time given the light nature of the precipitation and the fact that any snow falling will do so with temperatures slightly above freezing.
This has created a region of cooler temperatures across the central portions of the state. At the surface, high pressure located over the mid-Atlantic was resulting in a southerly flow across the area, allowing moisture levels to creep up.
Weak nrn stream disturbance ejecting through se Canada will propel shallow cold front through the area this aftn and allow for cooler/more seasonable air to spread over the area tonight.
253 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 A surface cold front is currently parked across the IL/KY border and will slowly sag southward through the day today. Into tomorrow we are expecting showers associated with a cold front to swing through the area.
Mins will stay up a little on the ridges, esp over the srn tier. Maxes will be much cooler Sat than Fri across the north, but still in the upper 50s south. Therefore, went cooler than the NBM for temps on Sunday. Showers will linger into Sunday night as a trailing cold front drags across central PA. 10" across the Lower Susq Valley.
Expect preciptiation to become more widespread and more intense this afternoon into tonight as an upper trough moves through the area.
None-the-less, we are trending at least midway between recent cooler solutions for daytime high temperatures Saturday and the lingering milder solutions. Highs Saturday are expected to be near or maybe slightly cooler than normal. A progressive, positively tilted trough to our north will push a surface cold front through our area Sunday, bringing chances of light precip or drizzle.
Cold front currently located just south of I-44 late this evening. the cold front was located from Southwest Oklahoma to near a line from Oilton to Grove in Northeast Oklahoma and then extended eastward into Southern Missouri. the cold front is expected to continue to slowly sag southward reaching near a line from Okemah to the northwest corner of Benton co in Northwest Arkansas around 12z Saturday. though with the low confidence will keep any thunder mention out of the grids at this time.
1116 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 A cold front stretching across southeast Kansas this afternoon is progged to sink southward into Oklahoma tonight with increasing chances for post-frontal showers as we head toward sunrise as the moisture depth within the column gradually deepens. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be on the increase as a positively tilted mid/upper trough emerges from the Rockies late Sat night. Precipitation should wane from west to east early on Sun as large-scale forcing for subsidence spreads over the region in the wake of the trough.
A low level coastal trough along the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida coast continues to push inland into tonight. Breezy onshore flow continues this afternoon and relaxes overnight with the trough moving inland. Drier air and subsidence under a building mid level ridge near the coastal Carolinas will keep resultant convection shallow in nature. Due to persistent onshore flow, overnight lows will be above normal ranging from the mid to upper 50s across inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. An inverted trough over the waters will continue the chance for coastal showers through the weekend along with breezy conditions along the coast.
The next upper trough and associated sfc reflection will cross the region Sat, with dismal moisture return. Cold front will push through the FA in the afternoon, with breezy conds in spots, mainly in NW SD and the lee of the Black Hills. Cooler, but seasonal conds can be expected Sunday.
/issued 231 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020/ A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin today, pulling up nearly stationary in a line from Lamesa to Pecos. Ironically, it will actually be cooler tomorrow due to an increase in moisture from the southeast that will keep low clouds into the early afternoon. Went slightly above MET/MAV guidance for tomorrow expecting an afternoon breakout, but if the clouds manage to hang in all day temps could be a few degrees cooler. Sunday will be even cooler as an upper trough moving across the northern Plains pushes a stronger cold front into the area.
Temperatures will be cooler and more seasonal today and Saturday than they have been this past week. Sunday looks to be a very nice seasonable day across the area as the ridge axis slides eastward over the state.
945 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Stratocumulus trying to hang tough mainly north of I-90 this afternoon but high pressure and associated subsidence has been keeping it's southward progress in check. High pressure will build over the area tonight leading to clearing skies and light winds. Saturday is looking like a perfect latter November day thanks to high pressure holding over the area.