Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will allow the stalled front over the northern Gulf to begin to move north as a warm front. Temps today will be warmer than yesterday, but are still expected to be below seasonal with mostly cloud to cloudy skies limiting today's insolation, and any warming onshore flow not quite in effect. With the onshore flow returning tonight, overnight lows above seasonal average returns, with a steady warming through the night from the low temps for the night expected to occur in the evening hours.
Water vapor imagery early this morning indicates the upper level low across northwest Mexico is beginning to lift northeast. As the upper level low continues to approach today isentropic ascent will strengthen over region and light rain is expected to develop from southwest to northeast late morning through early afternoon. By 00Z a 130kt jet streak will pivot into the region as the upper level low begins to open. The precip will quickly end west to east late this evening and overnight as the mid and upper level trough axis ejects northeast of the CWA.
The cold front has moved through the entire forecast area as of early this morning. However, temperatures just the past 90 minutes or so have dropped into the lower and middle 30s. An upper trough and area of vorticity currently over southern Idaho will move east during the day. Temperatures are not expected to fall below freezing for the remainder of tonight into the day Saturday so accumulations but be difficult to achieve on road surfaces. Ridging, as well as lee-side troughing will build back once again on Sunday and Sunday night.
902 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure passes south of the area today and tonight.
High pressure is nosing se-ward toward northern Superior, feeding in drier air at low levels, and veering and lightening 1000-850mb winds. Low pressure is departing into sw Quebec. The leftover baroclinic zone is stretched out across the southern Great Lakes, and that boundary is sharpening thanks to the high to our north, and low pressure in the eastern Dakotas. Cloud cover will thin north of M-32 and especially northern of the Bridge, where some partly to even mostly sunny periods are expected. Max temps from the lower teens in Chippewa Co to low/mid 20s in the far south. For tonight, high pressure will slide a bit ne of Georgian Bay. Isentropic ascent across the front is unimpressive, but with the high sliding off the east, door opens for mid-level moist band downstate to work slowly northward.
I have removed freezing drizzle due to this uncertainty. There may be a brief period of freezing drizzle as deeper moisture peels out, but additional impact should be negligible with trace accumulations falling on a substantial snow pack.
With the lack of any significant westerly component to lower level flow due to meridional trajectory of mid-level wave and surface cyclone west/northwest of CWA, amount of warming/drying is in question. We did lower dewpoints below the lowest guidance numbers and increased the winds a bit.
Gusty north winds will spread across the region today and tonight as a cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures can also be expected across the area through the weekend.
Aside from the fog, The longwave trough beings it's exit to the east and colder temperatures will move into the region today with highs in the lower 40's for the west side valleys in upper 30's in the east side valleys. The ridge will rebuild for the next three days.
958 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure builds into the region today through Sunday. It cools down again late in the week as Canadian high pressure builds southeast into the region. Previous Discussion: The early morning area of light snow along the midcoast associated with a weak trof will exit by morning. Today will not be as cold ahead of an approaching cold front. Plenty of clouds are expected elsewhere as a cold front moves through the region later in the day. Tonight - High pressure builds across the region behind the cold front allowing clearing skies to take place. Sunday will be a mostly sunny day as high pressure crests over the area.
416 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 A fairly nice start to the weekend is expected across the local area today as a cold front approaches from the north. with a shift and slight increase in winds to a more northeasterly direction around midday as the cold front begins sag across the local area. expect most areas to not experience the cooler air associated with this front until Sunday as the coolest air will still lag the initial frontal passage. where afternoon temperatures will likely begin to feel the effects of this cooler airmass before the time of peak heating comes around. In addition to the cooler air. While cooler air will also be filtering in across the region overnight. A cool start to the extended periods is expected behind this afternoons cold front.
/issued 312 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ An upper low over northern Mexico will move northeast today bringing a small chance for showers to the Big Bend and eastern Permian Basin. The increase in clouds from this low will keep highs from increasing much, though the MET seems to be overdoing the cooling a bit.
This airmass will be slow to modify this morning, but the slow moving cut-off low crossing northern Mexico will eject quickly eastward toward our region as a major upstream trough digs southward through the western CONUS. The rapid approach of the low will cause rapid mass northward transport of anomalously moist air for mid December (precipitable water > 1.
Surface cold front is moving slowly southward this morning, and was analyzed from W-E across northern Converse/Niobrara county into southwestern SD at 10z. Probability of ice present in cloud is expected to be near zero, so expect the P- type to be predominantly freezing drizzle between 6-12z before low level profiles cool enough to support a FZDZ/SN mix.
A weak warm front will spread inland on Saturday night, with light rain preceding the front today and this evening. Rain will increase on Sunday as a cold front sags southward into Western Washington.
1009 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will be over the area through tonight and then shift off the Southeast Coast Sunday.
637 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Have had very light freezing drizzle here at the office and at the Grand Forks airport. The second concern is the freezing drizzle potential in NW MN later this morning. but will monitor this area as well, as freezing rain could be possible.
High pressure over the northern Gulf states will bring plenty of sunshine and breezy southwest winds to the region today. Temperatures will respond by jumping into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon. The rest of of the short term is expected to be precipitation free as ridging takes place.
Current surface analysis reveals a 1026mb high over central Alabama influencing the weather over the lower Ohio River valley. High pressure over Alabama will move over the southeastern US this afternoon. Surface to 850mb flow will pick up out of the southwest and advect warmer air to the region. Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s for many locations this afternoon, and with strong subsidence, skies will remain mostly clear with only a few passing cirrus. A 500mb cutoff low over Mexico/Texas will begin moving toward the lower Ohio River Valley Saturday evening. With the cut-off low weakening and being absorbed into the main flow Sunday, overall rainfall amounts will be on the marginal side, generally under a quarter inch.
Upper level jet will be a mainstay over the Tennessee Valley and providing energy to the local area until actual upper low eventually kicks out and provides its own dynamics.
930 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 For those who have been enjoying the cooler weather recently, enjoy today as it will be the last seasonal day for awhile as the pattern looks become increasingly warmer and muggier over the coming days. High pressure overhead will provide a stable, gradually warming airmass through the weekend. A weak front slowly exits the waters today as high pressure tracks by north of the state through the weekend with winds veering from northeast to southeast. The high slips out over the Atlantic Mon and continues eastward while ridging back across FL to the Gulf with winds gradually shifting from southeasterly to southwesterly.
A strengthening warm front stretched from a developing low over the eastern Dakotas southeast across southern MN into southern WI early this morning. Temperatures at 3 am were mostly in the lower to mid 30s over eastern IA and northwest IL with southwest winds of 10 to near 15 mph and high clouds in the upper level northwest flow affecting mainly areas north of I-80. Further north, the earlier arrival of the wind shift and greater potential for high level clouds will limit highs to a range from the lower 40s along highway 20 to lower 50s along highway 34. However, the northern edge of the light precip shield may reach to around the highway 30 corridor.
Upper trough axis now making its was through the northern Sierra with a few light showers showing up on Radar. Lighter but still breezy north winds will continue on Sunday and there will be warming as the upper ridge axis centers over the west coast.
310 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017 High clouds were increasing over the area early this morning ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Mid and high clouds will continue to spread over the region today as the trough pushes southeastward across the Great Basin. With little low level moisture in the airmass ahead of the front, shower chances over the higher terrain of northeast Utah will hold off until the late morning with chances improving during the afternoon. Though there were timing differences with the latest model runs, they remained consistent in stalling the front over northeast Utah while they trough splits and the lion's share of the energy moves to old Mexico. Clouds thin over the area on Sunday as the southern extension of the trough closes off over northern Mexico and the open trough to the north pushes eastward.
High pressure will begin to nose in from the south midday Saturday, pushing lingering downlake snow showers further north and leading to some level of clearing. Locations south of I-76 should warm up much warmer than areas further north, which will likely stay in the clouds. With high pressure continuing its northern push, dry weather will carry through Saturday night. High pressure will gradually take over the area Sunday, but the dry weather will be fleeting. Despite brief ridging aloft locally, a wave ejecting out of the southern Plains will ride over the ridge Sunday afternoon bringing light precipitation back to the area.
639 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 A nearly stationary frontal boundary over eastern ND will push east as a warm front today. Luckily temperatures have risen with the approaching rain freezing precipitation has not been a problem. 06 at the Bismarck Airport through 3 AM and fortunately temperatures are not significantly cooler behind the trough. With that said, there does appear to be some clearing in the northwest, and any areas that would happen to drop to around freezing this morning would have the potential for some slippery sidewalks and untreated roadways.
437 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 The upper level trof currently situated over central Mexico will kick out to the northeast and cross Texas tonight.
529 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Breezy and much warmer conditions will be the rule today. as southwesterly winds increase ahead of the next slowly approaching cold front. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s. The rain will come to an end by late Sunday afternoon as high temperatures top out in the lower to middle 40s.
631 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will be over the area through tonight and then shift off the Southeast Coast Sunday.
Temperature inversions redevelop for the start of the week before another cold front arrives midweek. Fast moving cold front and associated band of light precipitation is currently moving southeasterly through western Nevada. In all but the lowest valleys, precipitation fell as snow, but warmer ground temperatures at mid elevations prevented snow from sticking to most surfaces. With temperatures hovering right around freezing it's possible some surfaces could re-freeze in some colder mountain valley locations. Winds gusts of 75-100 mph are not out of the question along the ridgetops as very strong temperature gradient sets up along the Sierra crest. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect today for Lake Tahoe with the highest wave heights expected along the southwest shores.
This will keep low level moist and could produce some every light snow or freezing drizzle near the lake and bay. Some very light snow or freezing drizzle is possible near the lake and bay early Sunday, but it should be generally dry, with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal.
After an hour or two of quickly saturating the lower atmosphere, ceilings will quickly fall to MFR/IFR conditions with taking VSBYs in the 1-3sm range as well. /issued 354 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ Upper low over AZ/Mex border closing off, providing a temporary reduction of clouds streaming into area.
Surface analysis shows a cold front pushing south through Wyoming and this front will push across the plains and I-25 Corridor later this morning. Cross sections shows warmer temperatures in the moist layer, now approaching only -8C (no ice nucleation) so if we see light precipitation it will likely be in the form of freezing drizzle versus light snow. If freezing drizzle does become more widespread, may see some impacts on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Sunday morning will begin with some lingering fog, stratus and possibly a little freezing drizzle as the cold airmass will remain over the area.
For today, the high pressure will slowly shift to the east with southerly flow returning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 33 48 43 / 0 10 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 30 46 41 / 0 0 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 50 31 45 41 / 0 0 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 26 45 37 / 0 0 40 30.
A cold front will begin to move in the Panhandles starting around 07/08Z for KGUY/KDHT and closer to the very end of the TAF period for KAMA. /Issued 239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/ Upper level low over northern Mexico will weaken as it lifts northeast across West Texas today and tonight and then it will move into Kansas by Sunday morning. As this upper low approaches the Panhandles and heights fall today it will help to tighten the pressure gradient and this will allow for south to southwest winds around 25 mph with higher gusts. Another upper level low will drop south into far northwest Mexico by Sunday afternoon. This upper low is now slower than earlier expected, so have taken the pops out for Sunday night for the southern Texas Panhandle.
Zonal flow to weak ridging is taking over at 500mb, ahead of the trough moving in from central Saskatchewan ID/central CA. A cut off low over Mexico will merge with the progressive western trough this afternoon over the 4-corners area, although much of the energy from this low will stay southeast of our area as it exits the Central Plains early Sunday morning. We will however be impacted by the parent trough that will extend from southern Manitoba through much of ND/WY/UT/and into northern Mexico by 12Z Sunday. Then this afternoon, as the trough nears from the west, light rain may move into our southwestern counties. Could even have some light freezing drizzle show up overnight as sfc temperatures fall below freezing but soundings are still relatively warm and we lose some of the ice potential aloft.
621 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure passes south of the area today and tonight.
527 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure will be over the area this morning, but will move east of the state this afternoon and evening. Today Through Sunday Night High pressure will move east of Arkansas today. An upper low will eject out of the desert southwest this afternoon and bring good rain chances to the area tonight.
Surface cold front is moving slowly southward this morning, and was analyzed from W-E across northern Converse/Niobrara county into southwestern SD at 10z. Probability of ice present in cloud is expected to be near zero, so expect the P- type to be predominantly freezing drizzle between 0-12z before low level profiles cool enough to support a FZDZ/SN mix.
Today Through Sunday Night High pressure will move east of Arkansas today. An upper low will eject out of the desert southwest this afternoon and bring good rain chances to the area tonight.
This afternoon will be dry thanks to a drier airmass moving into the forecast area due to northerly flow aloft on he eastern flank of an offshore ridge of high pressure. Tonight dry conditions continue as a flat ridge moves inland. Sunday a bit more moisture moves into the region through the aforementioned ridge resulting in a chance of mountain snow showers Sunday and Sunday night.
Current temperatures across most of the Midsouth are around 5 degrees warmer than they were at this time last night. North Mississippi is the exception where it is slightly cooler. Above normal temperatures and above freezing temperatures are expected over the weekend and through the upcoming work week.
At the same time, H5 ridging will be moving up the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridge will keep the region dry tonight, with temperatures dropping back into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
A cold front over northwestern NV early this morning will move southeastward through this afternoon spreading light snow and some gusty winds to the region.
As the low level flow becomes a more southeast to southerly tonight, CIGs are expected to drop, especially over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. This will allow the stalled front over the northern Gulf to begin to move north as a warm front. Temps today will be warmer than yesterday, but are still expected to be below seasonal with mostly cloud to cloudy skies limiting today's insolation, and any warming onshore flow not quite in effect. With the onshore flow returning tonight, overnight lows above seasonal average returns, with a steady warming through the night from the low temps for the night expected to occur in the evening hours.
Further south, building high pressure and warm advection should allow for clearing skies and warming temperatures, at least to near seasonal averages. Building ridge will lend to a quiet night tonight. Despite brief ridging aloft locally, a wave ejecting out of the southern Plains will ride over the ridge Sunday afternoon bringing light precipitation back to the area.
No signs of freezing drizzle over NW MN yet and low confidence with cigs in the 1000 to 1500 ft range. Have had very light freezing drizzle here at the office and at the Grand Forks airport. The second concern is the freezing drizzle potential in NW MN later this morning. but will monitor this area as well, as freezing rain could be possible.
543 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 A fairly nice start to the weekend is expected across the local area today as a cold front approaches from the north. with a shift and slight increase in winds to a more northeasterly direction around midday as the cold front begins sag across the local area. expect most areas to not experience the cooler air associated with this front until Sunday as the coolest air will still lag the initial frontal passage. where afternoon temperatures will likely begin to feel the effects of this cooler airmass before the time of peak heating comes around. In addition to the cooler air. While cooler air will also be filtering in across the region overnight. A cool start to the extended periods is expected behind this afternoons cold front.
On Sunday, a passing low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, along with chances for rain and snow showers primarily along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
A nearly stationary frontal boundary over eastern ND will push east as a warm front today. Luckily temperatures have risen with the approaching rain freezing precipitation has not been a problem. 06 at the Bismarck Airport through 3 AM and fortunately temperatures are not significantly cooler behind the trough. With that said, there does appear to be some clearing in the northwest, and any areas that would happen to drop to around freezing this morning would have the potential for some slippery sidewalks and untreated roadways.
622 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure builds into the region today through Sunday. It cools down again late in the week as Canadian high pressure builds southeast into the region. Previous Discussion: The early morning area of light snow along the midcoast associated with a weak trof will exit by morning. Today will not be as cold ahead of an approaching cold front. Plenty of clouds are expected elsewhere as a cold front moves through the region later in the day. Tonight - High pressure builds across the region behind the cold front allowing clearing skies to take place. Sunday will be a mostly sunny day as high pressure crests over the area.
Cold front that pushed through in the last 24 hrs is over central FL and will continue pushing swd. Models also indicate mid level ridging will build across the ern Gulf of Mexico as a mid level disturbance lifts northeast through Mexico, TX, and OK.
918 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Warmer air continues to surge north this evening as reflected by rising temperatures at just about all locations as of mid evening. Boundary to move through as a cold front tomorrow, with pops to increase some from west to east along the boundary during the morning and afternoon hours.
Otherwise, expect any ceilings to eventually lift to VFR conditions areawide as we await the ignition of strong to severe convection to ignite during the afternoon hours along and ahead of an upper trough and associated sfc cold front.
Forrester Previous forecast discussion: Upper level low pressure trough will swing through northeast Montana tonight, continuing snowfall south of the Missouri River, while modified arctic air streams in out of Canada.
1003 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday.
Something to continue to monitor for fzdz as surface temperatures teeter near freezing.
Line of thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front should begin impacting TAF sites from west to east after around 01Z. Currently temperatures have warmed up into the lower to middle 80s except near the coast where temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Southerly winds will continue to increase across the region through tomorrow as pressures continue to lower in the central plains with approaching upper trough. These southerly winds will continue to increase the low level moisture ahead of a cold front that will be moving through the area tomorrow night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 77 53 61 / 10 20 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 76 50 57 / 20 20 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 75 50 58 / 20 20 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 73 51 55 / 30 20 80 40.
Scattered showers are expected to break out across southern Illinois later this evening as a warm frontal boundary begins to take shape. all models continue to indicate low pressure moving fairly quickly northeast from Kansas this evening to central Illinois mid day Tuesday into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday evening. Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms in progress at daybreak Tuesday will gradually push east of the area as the warm front surges north across the area. Within the warm sector during the afternoon scattered thunderstorms will become a bit more vigorous while a squall line begins to organize along the cold front across Illinois.
The large scale upper pattern consists of a sharp ridge off the West Coast, a broad deep trough over central North America, and a flat ridge from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Atlantic. The main changes during the period will be for the western ridge to get undercut, and the mid-continent trough to shift east a bit.