Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 922 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. The high will begin to shift east overnight allowing for southeasterly winds to begin to increase as cirrus spreads into the region. Early afternoon temperatures range from the middle 50s to low 60s across the area with afternoon highs expected to be in the low to middle 60s. Weak ridging will shift over east Tennessee overnight and a weak trough will shift out of the Plains, over the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow. A warm front will lift north across the Midsouth during the day. A weak cold front is expected to stall somewhere over northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee or south Missouri Wednesday night. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday through the weekend as a strong ridge builds over the southeastern US.
Downstream broad mid level ridging was noted across the Great Plains. This pattern favors troughing in the lee of the Rockies which surface obs show along with ridging over the MS river valley. Forecast soundings show good low level moisture advection causing a stable saturated layer in the low levels. The other deterministic solutions are not quite as emphatic but still show signs of strong moisture advection up and over a warm frontal boundary initially to the south of the forecast area. Have increased cloud cover to account for the good moisture advection progged to occur and as a result trended highs for Thursday a little cooler.
The system's cold front is paired with southerly moisture transport at 850 mb. Gusts between 30 and 36 kts are possible today with the highest speeds staying west of the Mississippi River for the most part.
359 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Cool high pressure continues to dominate, keeping the forecast dry for a little while. Lows will range from the mid 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast. Ridging aloft will become better established and amplified across the SE States by the end of this period, with the upper high located across GA-SC_FL region and the ridge axis aloft west of the FA. Sfc ridging will extend across the FA from the high's center well offshore from the NE States Thu thru Thu night. Will see an overall warming trend Thu into Fri but may be temporarily interrupted from ridging from the North Fri into Fri night depending how much of an influence the airmass from the north becomes as ridging surges southward.
Could see some weakening of the storms later this mrng as the activity encounters the drier airmass ovr Ern AR, assocd with the departing sfc rdg centered ovr the lower Ohio Valley. South of this bndry, dewpoints had climbed into the lower and mid 60s. Otherwise, drier and much warmer air wl return to close out the workweek as an upper rdg begins to bld into AR fm the SErn states.
High pressure to our east will slowly edge eastward over the next 24 hours. This will allow a warm front to slide up through Mississippi, through the TN Valley and into the Ohio Valley during the same time frame. There will be very limited moisture with the warm front. Once the warm front lifts north the high pressure to our east will begin to elongate and stretch back into the area for Thursday.
No rain is expected as the low/mid levels remain too dry, but the cirrus cloud canopy will be thick enough for mostly cloudy to at times cloudy skies. An area of weak upper high pressure will then build over the region on Thursday, keeping the ongoing dry period in check with clearing skies. Lows tonight remain on track to bottom out in the mid 40s well inland to the lower to mid 50s at the coast, or 4 to 8 degrees below normal. Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid 50s across our northern zones to the lower to mid 60s at the coast, with highs Thursday rebounding into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Precip chances were lowered this morning west of the ongoing precip with uncertainty on any further redevelopment ahead of the trough axis. Focus by mid afternoon will be a cold front pushing into NE OK and a sharpening dryline through central OK. Resultant strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass will reside in a corridor across NE OK by late afternoon and isolated to widely scattered storms are possible with a favored area being the dryline / cold front intersection.
This trend will continue overnight as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. MinTs will be 5 to 10F below average, ranging from the mid to upper 20s across the Allegheny Plateau to the low to mid 30s in the Lower Susq Valley. Improvement is the main message for Wednesday, as high pressure and a low PW air mass provides fair weather and light wind Wednesday.
A high amplitude trough centered over Quebec and the Northeastern US will move northeast into the Maritimes today, with weak, transitory ridging moving in aloft. At the surface, high pressure currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic states will shift to the east. Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 50s in the snow-free areas, but will lag in the 40s to near 50 in the most snow-covered areas. Warm advection aloft will commence overnight as the weak upper ridge shifts to the east, and clouds will begin to increase before dawn Thursday. With the amount of melting expected today (Wed), coupled with the fact that the lower elevations have far less snow cover, flooding is not anticipated with the light rainfall either.
Upper level ridging continued to build in through the day while at the surface, low pressure pushed eastward into the area, tightening the surface pressure gradient. Otherwise, despite the the strong southerly flow, temperatures remained on the cooler side (40s and 50s) owing to expansive cloud cover. A low level jet/850 mb moisture transport will strengthen overnight with isentropic ascent expected to contribute to shower development ahead of the low. Meanwhile, a surface warm front will be lifting northward with associated showers and storms moving in by mid to late afternoon. Deep layer shear will be maximized near and north of the warm front while more instability will be to the south.
Southeast winds continue to gust ahead of the approaching low pressure system. No major changes in thinking around the effects of this low. High pressure builds in Wednesday night and winds diminish from west to east. The period opens on Thursday with an upper level trough over the west coast with downstream ridging over the Northern Plains.
19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated low amplitude ridge across the plains. Strong cross mountain flow enabling development of strong lee trough in eastern Colorado. Winds east of the trough have been quite strong with gusts reaching 48 knots this morning. Along and west of trough, warm and dry conditions leading to critical fire weather conditions. trough will continue to move west, allowing for winds to decrease to around 20 mph by sunset. Cold front will sweep across area after 09z, shifting winds to the northwest and briefly intensifying. During the weekend, the negatively tilted portion of the upper level trough is forecasted to remain near the Four Corners region.
131 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Low pressure tracks through eastern Canada tonight as high pressure builds to the southwest of the area. The high builds over the northeast Wednesday, remaining into Wednesday night.
In the mid and upper levels, we will have a ridge axis crossing the region, with some high clouds rounding the top of the ridge, as seen in current satellite imagery.
342 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 A strong area of low pressure will lift north of the region today as high pressure builds east.
610 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Canadian high pressure over eastern North Carolina and Virginia will shift offshore this evening.
959 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Dry weather, along with clearing skies is expected today as high pressure will be in control.
1029 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will slide across the area through tonight. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
957 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will slide across the area through tonight. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
624 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 A strong area of low pressure will lift north of the region today as high pressure builds east.
540 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Cool high pressure continues to dominate, keeping the forecast dry for a little while. Lows will range from the mid 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast. Ridging aloft will become better established and amplified across the SE States by the end of this period, with the upper high located across GA-SC_FL region and the ridge axis aloft west of the FA. Sfc ridging will extend across the FA from the high's center well offshore from the NE States Thu thru Thu night. Will see an overall warming trend Thu into Fri but may be temporarily interrupted from ridging from the North Fri into Fri night depending how much of an influence the airmass from the north becomes as ridging surges southward.
729 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will slide across the area through tonight. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
304 AM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Weak ridging will keep the region largely dry today, with breezy winds across eastern portions of North-central Montana. To start the period, an upper trough is overhead, shifting eastward. Further west, over the far eastern Pacific Ocean, a second trough is also slowly shifting eastward. A low amplitude upper ridge is in between the two troughs, centered over the Pacific Northwest. As the weak ridge shifts eastward and overhead today, expect a largely dry day, with temperatures a touch cooler than yesterday in most areas. Upper troughing over the far eastern Pacific/far western CONUS will begin to dig southeastward Thursday. Ahead of the trough axis, relatively moist southwesterly flow aloft, along with upper level support, will bring an opportunity for precipitation Thursday across the region.
537 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will slide across the area through tonight. A weakening frontal system will then approach on Thursday, with a leading warm front approaching in the afternoon and evening, and a trailing cold front moving across late at night.
700 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will bring a dry day with increased sunshine and moderating temperatures. Rain chances return late tonight and Thursday with a passing trough.
826 AM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022 On the 13Z surface map, high pressure has shifted east into NC allowing east-southeast flow to develop in the TN valley. High clouds well in advance of a high plains upper trough will increase through the day. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region late this work week, promoting warmer and mainly dry conditions. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge to the east of the area will win out and begin to amplify.
1012 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure and southerly flow will bring clear skies and seasonable temperatures today, but warm and moist advection will reintroduce shower chances tomorrow morning. Today will feature a dominant high pressure pattern. With weak winds and clear skies, high temperatures rose fairly fast from below freezing this morning. Tonight, a trough of low pressure will approach from the west. Thursday, showers will continue east as the aforementioned trough progresses. By afternoon, as the upper-level trough departs, subsidence and dry air will cut off the deep moisture and showers as winds veer westerly.
829 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Canadian high pressure over eastern North Carolina and Virginia will shift offshore this evening.
953 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region favors fair dry weather. Temperatures increasing, with current temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the Piedmont, and mid 30s to low 40s in areas west of the Blue Ridge. High pressure is centered overhead this morning. As the high moves east, expect the development of a light southerly wind. Temperatures tonight are expected to remain above freezing. Based off the latest sweep of CAMS, slight chance to chance POPs were pressed further east: it looks like showers should be able to make it up to the Blue Ridge, with a few spilling over before the front dries up. Following the front Thursday, high pressure re-settles over the area with a strong ridge developing over the eastern U.
Weak ridging will keep the region largely dry today, with breezy winds across eastern portions of North-central Montana. To start the period, an upper trough is overhead, shifting eastward. Further west, over the far eastern Pacific Ocean, a second trough is also slowly shifting eastward. A low amplitude upper ridge is in between the two troughs, centered over the Pacific Northwest. As the weak ridge shifts eastward and overhead today, expect a largely dry day, with temperatures a touch cooler than yesterday in most areas. Upper troughing over the far eastern Pacific/far western CONUS will begin to dig southeastward Thursday. Ahead of the trough axis, relatively moist southwesterly flow aloft, along with upper level support, will bring an opportunity for precipitation Thursday across the region.
A trough along with an occluded front will be moving through the region today bringing a mix of rain and snow. Dry conditions are the surface can be seen in model soundings and is reflected in the high dew point depression values. Models indicate a surge of gulf moisture affecting the region by mid morning into the early afternoon from west to east therefore snow or a rain/snow mix will overspread the region as the lower levels begin to saturate. This will help with orographic lift over the higher terrain. As the storm exits Thursday morning some models are indicating that there could be some additional snowfall on the backside as a secondary cold front moves through.
Temperatures will be cooler today and there will be less wind.
A transitory upper ridge this morning will give way to another upper trough that will move into the region by this afternoon and evening.
647 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region favors fair dry weather. High pressure is centered overhead this morning. As the high moves east, expect the development of a light southerly wind. Temperatures tonight are expected to remain above freezing. Based off the latest sweep of CAMS, slight chance to chance POPs were pressed further east: it looks like showers should be able to make it up to the Blue Ridge, with a few spilling over before the front dries up. Following the front Thursday, high pressure re-settles over the area with a strong ridge developing over the eastern U.
Tranquil weather on-going across the Tennessee valley this morning, with high pressure still promoting mostly clear conditions. These mid/high clouds may become denser by the mid/late afternoon, but southerly flow and earlier sunshine will easily counteract this and subsequently expect high temperatures to return to the lower 70s. Subsidence from the ridge will help to keep things dry across our area once again, though we'll have to watch for the possibility of a few elevated showers in far northwest Alabama that will form along a stalled boundary to our northwest. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region late this work week, promoting warmer and mainly dry conditions. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge to the east of the area will win out and begin to amplify.
1037 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Canadian high pressure over eastern North Carolina and Virginia will shift offshore this evening.
High pressure will continue to extend eastward over Florida and eventually the western Atlantic by the weekend. The position of the high will favor prolonged period of fresh to strong easterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters tonight through this weekend.
609 AM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Low pressure system moving across southern Canada this morning with northwest winds expected to increase into the afternoon. Winds diminish overnight with high pressure over the northern Plains. Upper trof of the west coast will move onshore on Thursday, lifting through the Great Basin and spinning up a Colorado Low to bring another snow storm to eastern Montana for the end of the week. Thursday night could see some intermittent rain or snow as an inverted trof develops along the North Dakota border.
/Issued 343 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022/ We have another chilly morning under some strong radiational cooling, though temps should stay mainly above freezing and only some patchy frost potential in the far NE. Dewpts should be a bit higher along with some temps moderating warmer today and resultant min RH values look to stay above fire danger levels today. Thursday max temps are progged to moderate even warmer with many areas above climo reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
A deep upper level trough off the coast will be the main factor impacting the weather through the short term. This trough is currently sending a decaying cold front into the forecast area which is triggering the development of showers. The upper level trough will nudge closer to the Oregon coast on Thursday keeping the forecast area under a southwest flow and slightly unstable airmass resulting in the increase of showers again with the solar heating of the day.
201 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure will progress offshore this evening. An area of low pressure will track to our north on Thursday, pushing a decaying front into our area.
312 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022 SPC mesoanalysis had a large area of low to mid-level warm air advection and a corridor of high 850mb moisture transport over the Midwest, which were downstream of a 500mb trough axis situated over the Plains.
345 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Strong southeast winds will persist into the evening with a significant pressure gradient ahead of the low pressure situated over the MN/IA border. Upper pattern will consist of a closed 500 mb low off the Pacific NW, a trough axis over the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu. Upper ridging moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri into 12z Sat as the closed low moves into the Rockies along with its associated trough. The trough heads northeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. More energy moves down from Canada 12z Mon to set up another upper trough in the upper Great Lakes which moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue. Upper ridging then moves into the plains 12z Wed.
Thereafter, mid/upper level ridging then builds over our forecast area on Thursday. Down at the surface, dominating high pressure centered over the mid atlantic coast region will continue to ridge southwest into our area. With the dominant ridging over our forecast area Thursday still expecting no precipitation, but will be looking at moderating temperatures. Skies are also expected to clear on Thursday as the upper ridge builds back into the area. Tonight lows will be warmer than the past couple of nights, ranging from the low to mid 50s over interior areas, but upper 50s and lower 60s down along the I-10 corridor down toward the coast. Thursday high temps will rebound into the lower 80s for most locations, except for some mid to upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
Milder temps tonight due to the onshore winds, with lows in the low 60s inland, upper 60s along the coast, and likely in the low 70s for the barrier islands. Broad high pressure across the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard will maintain a breezy/gusty ENE/E wind flow over Central FL.
309 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure centered near the Carolina coastline. Low pressure was over southern Kansas with a dryline into west Texas.
210 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region favors fair dry weather. Temperatures increasing, with current temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the Piedmont, and mid 30s to low 40s in areas west of the Blue Ridge. High pressure is centered overhead this morning. As the high moves east, expect the development of a light southerly wind. Temperatures tonight are expected to remain above freezing. Based off the latest sweep of CAMS, slight chance to chance POPs were pressed further east: it looks like showers should be able to make it up to the Blue Ridge, with a few spilling over before the front dries up. Following the front Thursday, high pressure re-settles over the area with a strong ridge developing over the eastern U.
/Updated at 1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022/ A low pressure system over the Mississippi River Valley will continue to move north and east towards the Great Lakes. A frontal boundary will move north with this low pressure. high pressure starts to build in and the area should remain dry.
- Warmer tomorrow with showers and storms in the afternoon/evening hours.
The highest PoP values increase overnight from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas as a cold front moves south into the region and provides additional forcing for mostly elevated convection that could linger into early Thursday.
312 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Cool high high pressure centered across the eastern Carolinas and Virginia will shift offshore this evening.
246 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Strong high pressure will be moving into the Atlantic today however the ridging will remain in place helping to keep us in our easterly flow and drier conditions.
346 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 Cool high high pressure centered across the eastern Carolinas and Virginia will shift offshore this evening.
Thursday will be dry and mild as a mid level ridge builds across the region. Southwest flow will dominate at 500mb, ahead of the large trough across the west coast.
133 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022 High pressure and southerly flow will bring clear skies and seasonable temperatures today, but warm and moist advection will reintroduce shower chances tomorrow morning. Today will feature a dominant high pressure pattern. Tonight, a trough of low pressure will approach from the west. Thursday, showers will continue east as the aforementioned trough progresses. By afternoon, as the upper-level trough departs, subsidence and dry air will cut off the deep moisture and showers as winds veer westerly.
Moisture flow around the low should start creeping back into our southeast zones by morning with stratus clouds increasing and perhaps some drizzle developing by morning. It could set up a scenario where it will be hard to get into the 70s for areas north of the warm front as the east winds and clouds could be socked in for much of the day. Storm chances should also stay low through much of the day with only a decent chance of storms by sunset through 03Z as the low level jet increases in central Kansas and Oklahoma. For Thursday night as the triple point moves into our southeast zones and the low level jet increases our chances of storms will increase however it will be a narrow window as the storms will quickly move into Wichita's area.
The responsible strong low pressure center is moving through southern Saskatchewan right now. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Low pressure system moving across southern Canada this morning with northwest winds expected to increase into the afternoon. Winds diminish overnight with high pressure over the northern Plains. Upper trof of the west coast will move onshore on Thursday, lifting through the Great Basin and spinning up a Colorado Low to bring another snow storm to eastern Montana for the end of the week. Thursday night could see some intermittent rain or snow as an inverted trof develops along the North Dakota border.
This intensification of the winds will allow warm front to lift north into area through the afternoon. During the weekend, the negatively tilted portion of the upper level trough is forecasted to remain near the Four Corners region.