Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1112 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Arctic high pressure will drift over the area tonight. Wind will also become a factor toward morning as the ridge axis drifts over the I-44/I-70 corridors in Missouri and Illinois respectively. The ridge axis will continue moving east across the Ohio Valley and down into Arkansas by late afternoon. This should put the CWFA into warm southwest flow in the low levels. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs are in general agreement that a maturing low pressure system ought to exist east of the Rockies somewhere between International Falls, MN and Dallas, TX.
With lighter wind speeds, wind chill values will remain warmer than minus 15, therefore no advisory will be needed.
150 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 A cold front will move offshore this morning then stall offshore this afternoon and tonight. The cold front has already advanced through most of the northern and western portions of the forecast area. -GIH A cold front progressing eastward into the Carolinas today will slow down on approach to the coast this evening as the parent cyclone lifts rapidly northeast into the Canadian maritimes. The front will briefly stall, assume more of a W-E orientation, then push south toward GA/FL tonight/Monday as ~1040 mb high pressure building east into the Mid-Atlantic extends southward into the Carolinas.
Monday will start out cold but respond nicely to winds becoming southerly as the high shifts east.
will be the lows for the overnight period. Mid level trough will shift east with zonal flow setting up by the end of the short term period.
Lapse rate analysis of modeled sounding data suggest differential heating of the daytime hours should accelerate the lower trop mixing needed to erode the inversion and scour the lingering moisture in that lowest 2-3K FT AGL. as the double digit line hovered roughly along the lower Ohio river.
358 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 A strong cold 1044 mb high pressure system is centered from the Mid-Mississippi River valley to the Southern Plains. Brisk northerly winds away from the high into the forecast area is bringing a very chilly air mass with air temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s and wind chill or apparent temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Arctic airmass is spilling into the area as strong high pressure pushes into central Indiana this afternoon and tonight.
ABQ/AEG/TCC will be impacted by the higher clouds.
Winds will pick up tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and an approaching trough.
The temperature at KDEN briefly dropped to -5F, but has since warmed back up to the low single digits. Other temperatures around the Denver area are as warm as the low teens. Breezy conditions will continue over the higher ridges in the mountains as brisk northwest flow aloft continues over the state. although speeds will not be anywhere as strong as those on the ridges. gusty westerly winds will continue on the high ridges and upper east slopes of the Front Range as noted above. Otherwise it will be a dry and warmer day.
Tonight the high clouds move overhead which should disrupt radiational cooling. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph continue today associated with deep low pressure moving through the southern Canadian provinces. a weak cold front will move through the forecast area.
1214 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday.
Some upstream mid-high level clouds may lessen the high albedo effect, but still hedging toward the cooler end of the guidance for today, which results in highs from the lower 20s over most of southwest Minnesota, to around 30 through the Missouri River Valley. The other concern will be winds in higher elevations, specifically along and in the eastern downslope areas of the Buffalo Ridge. With southwesterly cross-ridge flow of 35-40kts at 925mb, will continue to see some enhanced winds along and downstream of the ridge.
317 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Have a broad trough across the center of the country extending back to a cut off low off Baja. As the main trough moves east the cut off low will continue to spin the next several days.
420 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
Temperatures across the mountains and along the Palmer and Raton ridges have generally climbed up to near what was expected. Areas in and near the higher terrain will warm the most when compared to last night. This is because warming of the air mass and mixing has occurred near the higher terrain whereas surface inversions are still intact and preventing warming/mixing for the valleys and plains. Warmer air moves in aloft with increased westerly flow over the region. The lower Arkansas River Valley from about La Junta to Kansas, though, may struggle to break the inversion, preventing temps from rising above freezing. Also, the San Luis Valley will likely maintain an inversion and stay in the 20s as will most of the higher mountain areas.
Lows tonight won't fall very far from the afternoon highs as the steady southwest wind draws warmer air north into the region.
/issued 245 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Yesterday's Arctic cold front brrrrought the coldest airmass to the region this fall, w/overnight lows in the teens as far south as KE38, and single digits over the northern tier of counties. Current sfc obs show the coldest air dammed up against the western mtns, w/most locations to the east still subfreezing at 19Z. WV imagery shows zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico ahead of an upper trough digging down the west coast. Unfortunately, this will hinder warming Monday afternoon, despite return flow resuming as sfc ridging to the east sinks south. Temps continue warming under zonal flow aloft as the west coast trough closes, separates from the main flow, and sets up shop off the Baja coast.
1156 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure well to the west will begin to ridge across our area overnight and Monday and remain in control of the weather into the middle part of the week.
1142 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure over the midwest will move east across Ohio and Pennsylvania on Monday.
Latest satellite imagery depicts clouds over the eastern third of the region, with high pressure continuing to build at the surface behind a cold front. Latest surface analysis now places this front well east of the region, now nearing the Atlantic coast, while high pressure is centered over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. H5 analysis extends a longwave trough axis from eastern Canada southwestward to the southwestern CONUS, with resultant southwesterly flow aloft over the local region, as an upper ridge of high pressure lies over the western Atlantic. High pressure will dominate conditions over the next several days, keeping conditions dry for the region through much of the week.
406 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.
This wx pattern will be characterized by dry conditions provided by sfc ridging influences and developing quasi zonal flow aloft. With apex of sfc ridging influences building into the mid state region by this afternoon, believe temps will be several degrees below what the latest GFS MOS suggests, and went close to Superblend values.
Southwesterly winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts should keep the lower atmosphere well mixed and keep temperatures from dropping. Arctic air will continue a gradual eastward exit out of the ND, as a surface warm front begins nosing into the west and advecting warmer air into the state.
1030 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Broad upper troughing exists across the forecast area through the period. Moderating temperatures are expected through the work week ahead of a cooler weekend.
The cold start will impact afternoon temperatures and despite a southwest breeze and ample sunshine it appears likely that highs will remain near or below freezing especially given the snow on the ground. The breeze will persist tonight, keeping the boundary layer mixed and temperatures warmer.
1052 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Increasing mid level cloudiness in noted in the afternoon regional satellite image across the Dakotas, which is the initial surge of a much warmer air mass. Some blowing snow is likely in west central/southwest Minnesota, especially along the Buffalo Ridge where gusty winds will begin, and last through tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 20s east of the Buffalo Ridge with low to mid 20s elsewhere.
Temps will climb into the low 30s today for most locations. The cold front should move into NW OK by mid day Wed so high temps may be a little tricky. The mid to upper low that will cut off today west of the Baja will likely remain there through at least Thu. Regardless, it appears low level moisture will begin to return this weekend ahead of the main trough.
Drier low level air will funnel into the area as arctic high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley and return south southwest flow increases overnight into Monday. Light flow out of the westerly quadrant will continue to promote light cold advection into tonight while SE Michigan's position along the northern flank of the high poses a decoupling quandary, critical for a chill forecast.
Surface map early this morning has high pressure sliding southeast toward the Ohio River Valley as an area of low pressure was moving through southern Manitoba.
1125 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 North winds winds will gradually decrease in intensity over night as a ridge of high pressure settles over the Southeastern US.
359 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure building in this morning in wake of the cold front that pushed through the region yesterday. Lows in the low to mid 20s will be common (with some readings in the teens probable along the mountains).
347 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 The mean, longwave upper trough across the central/southwest CONUS is in the process of breaking down, with a northern branch of upper level westerlies off of the Pacific taking over from tonight through midweek.
Clearing of the low clouds has just reached SDF/LOU.
357 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 A slow moving cold front has pushed just southeast of the forecast area.
310 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 (Added black ice discussion) Early this morning some sub-freezing temps are making their way farther south than forecast and actually reaching the freezing mark now across metro Atlanta. Will be expanding the Special Weather Statement for patch black ice potential farther south to include the metro and keep the expiration at 11 AM when some farther north locations should warm above freezing.
439 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure will keep us dry through at least midweek.
MinT forecast still looks okay, but the duration of freezing temperatures will be shorter than previously expected. A strong cold front has advanced well east of the forecast area. A dry weather pattern thus in play with strong and cold high pressure over the region. Low temperatures over these areas should remain well above freezing so precipitation should be in the form of rain only. appears that most of the area north of I10 corridor will fall to freezing or below tonight.
East of I-65 temperatures were still in the lower to middle 20s. High pressure will be building in from the west tonight. Across east central KY where clouds should hang on through the night, temperatures will drop only into the low 20s with wind chill values in the teens. Highs tomorrow will again be quite cold ranging from the mid 20s in southern IN to the low 30s in east central KY.
354 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 A warm front extended from a low pressure system in south central Canada southward into western Minnesota. Warm advection continued behind the warm front with southwest winds across ND and current temperatures in the teens to mid 20s above zero. The warmer temperatures today may help form a crust on top of the snow cover across the state.
Over the Buffalo Ridge, favorable conditions for local enhancement of winds through the night, which may produce areas of blowing snow at times. Gusty winds will continue over the Buffalo Ridge and will include patchy blowing snow through the day.
Strong high pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge southwest over Florida keeping a southeast wind flow over the area. High pressure near Bermuda will continue to produce southeast winds with warm and humid conditions that will lead to areas of sea fog through Monday evening. A cold front will move through the region late Monday with winds quickly becoming NE with slight increase in seas through mid week.
1239 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure builds into the area and remains through the first half of the week.
Temperatures will remain near record levels with highs in the low- mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s over the interior and low-mid 70s along the east coast.
A ridge of high pressure to the north east will keep an approaching front, well to the north of the region. The high does weaken however, which will allow the wind to relax some.
330 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 1043 mb high pressure is centered over central IL this morning for nearly calm winds across much of the area, with very cold temperatures, expected to be below zero by daybreak from I-70 northward. The high will shift slowly toward the Ohio Valley over the upcoming 24 hours as low pressure moves into the upper Midwest and Ontario.
The upper low pressure trough remains the main upper feature which helped bring the arctic high pressure to the region.
Lows will still be slightly warmer than tonight however, dropping into the mid 20s for the most part as opposed to the teens.
These conditions will linger into the daytime hrs, as a large ridge of high pressure at the sfc from the OH Valley swwd into the srn Plains continues to settle ewd. High pressure layered across much of the region will continue to gradually shift ewd Tonight into Wed.
Regardless, temperatures will recover back above the freezing mark this afternoon with highs expected to range from the middle 30s east to the upper 30s and lower 40s on the Caprock. The base of the upper trough currently elongated from off srn Calif.
Other than that, the main highlight in the short term is the rising temperatures as warmer air slowly builds into the region.
A few more hours of precipitation in the northwest could have been a big mess as surface temperatures are now beginning to drop down closer to freezing with air temperatures still below freezing. There are pockets of sleet mixing in with the tail end of the precipitation, but again no impacts as the surface and soil temperatures are above freezing.
332 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure will keep us dry through at least midweek.
The complexity of this system is whether there will be enough warm air aloft to allow for melting of snowflakes to liquid and that then fall into the cold air at the surface as freezing rain. The possibility for this seems best from north central Oregon and the eastern Columbia Gorge eastward through the Lower Columbia Basin and the Foothills of the Blue Mountains. Lower level clouds will increase after 12z with MVFR ceilings and a chance of snow and patchy freezing rain at KDLS around 15z and spread east to rest of taf sites through the day.
1250 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 A cold front will move offshore this morning then stall offshore this afternoon and tonight. The cold front has already advanced through most of the northern and western portions of the forecast area. -GIH A cold front progressing eastward into the Carolinas today will slow down on approach to the coast this evening as the parent cyclone lifts rapidly northeast into the Canadian maritimes. The front will briefly stall, assume more of a W-E orientation, then push south toward GA/FL tonight/Monday as ~1040 mb high pressure building east into the Mid-Atlantic extends southward into the Carolinas.
1156 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region overnight into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.
Scattered high clouds along with light and variable winds expected overnight while Arctic high pressure moves through the region.
309 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Arctic high pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning. Current temperatures range from the lower teens to the lower 20s. The high will settle over the area tonight.
Have gone a little cooler in the higher snowpack areas and warmer where little snow fell. The good news is it will be warmer than compared to yesterday and some of the snow should melt today, depending how how much of a warm up there is.
The complexity of this system is whether there will be enough warm air aloft to allow for melting of snowflakes to liquid and that then fall into the cold air at the surface as freezing rain. The possibility for this seems best from north central Oregon and the eastern Columbia Gorge eastward through the Lower Columbia Basin and the Foothills of the Blue Mountains.
Once again, it appears that statistical guidance (Model Output Statistics) is heavily reliant on the strength of the north/northwest wind component despite what remains a steel-gray thick overcast between 3000 and 5000 feet for the Lower Valley and a little bit higher for the Mid/Upper Valley. As for the freeze warning: If freeze warnings were based on wet bulb evaporation we'd be set with temperatures in the low to mid 30s and dewpoints in the mid teens. should that occur Monday, highs will be several degrees warmer than forecast as the sunshine, despite the chill of the airmass, can still work some magic this far south in late December. Most of the RGV through the King Ranch should be in a solid low overcast so daytime temperatures will struggle to get much higher than the lower 40s.
122 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure builds into the area and remains through the first half of the week.
The low cloud cover will lift and begin to dissipate around/after 18z, but breezy NW winds will continue through the remainder of the afternoon.
1025 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure southeast of the region, with west-southwest winds bringing warmer air into the area. Westerly winds are a bit breezy at times over portions of northeast WY to northwest SD on the back side of the high.
The proximity of the ridge axis will cause the northerly winds to weaken even more today. This should finally bring an end to the cold air advection, allowing temperatures to climb above freezing this afternoon.
346 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region overnight into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.
219 AM MST Mon Dec 19 2016 Broad upper troughing exists across the forecast area through the period.
A ridge of high pressure will finally take firm control of area weather tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the eastern Kentucky. Temperatures the next two nights should be slightly cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 60s. At upper levels, a long wave trough in place over Kentucky (through the work week) will shift east, being replaced with ridging for Labor Day Weekend.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level low situated across the Four Corners Region while a conveyor of tropical moisture is streaming northeast across the South Plains into the high plains of western Kansas. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is anchored across extreme southeast Colorado. Subtle upper level waves embedded in a southerly tropical flow will cross western Kansas today and tonight as they rotate around an upper level ridge axis that will be located over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a tropical air mass will continue Tuesday as the upper level ridge axis shifts westward into western Oklahoma and the upper low, located near the four corners region at 00z Monday, slowly moves east northeast across northern New Mexico.
The latest water vapor image reveals a mature cyclone over southern Colorado with it's baroclinic leaf rotating north into southwest Nebraska/central Sandhills. At the surface, an inverted trough bisects southwest Nebraska northeast into the Sandhills. Current thinking is that the trough will serve as a focus for storm development until diurnal heating subsides, with a secondary focus on the storms to the south and southeast of the cwa as they rotate north. For Tuesday, the focus for storms lies just south and southeast of the cwa along a warm front.
Some of the high-res guidance is showing redevelopment of showers and storms near a stalled boundary in NW OK tomorrow morning and will introduce VCSH for KGAG and KWWR just before sunrise. /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ Easterly low level fetch today will continue to pull moisture into the area from the Gulf of Mexico around the south side of weak mid-level ridge over the southeast U. This along with parts of the area under the influence of the upper low to our west likely to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again today.
A ridge of high pressure will finally take firm control of area weather tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the eastern Kentucky. Temperatures the next two nights should be slightly cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 60s. A pattern change will be underway by Tuesday night as an upper level ridge shifts to our west and is replaced by a longwave trough by late in the week.
Short range models show the H5 vort maxima cycling around a weak upper low situated across the Four Corners Region while broad upper level ridging remains in control across the southeastern CONUS. Factoring in the high amounts of QPF with PW values in excess of 1. So look for lows back down into the mid to upper 60s(F) overnight with the lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Precip chances will continue through at least mid week even as a building upper level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward out of the Intermountain West into the Northern and Western High Plains.
Strong upper ridge over the region looks to keep the forecast mainly dry through Tues night.
Little to no surface reflection associated with the center of the upper circulation to boot however moisture has increased through the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere over the region. Early track ensemble guidance is better clustered around a solution keeping the system well south of the area and in fact aiding in bringing in some drier and hopefully cooler air by the end of the week. GFS is more aggressive in the amplitude of the trough and the scouring out of moisture but both it and the ECMWF show some considerably cooler nighttime conditions for North GA for the weekend.
155 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Closed mid/upper low is in place over southern Colorado/northern New Mexico, with long moist plume of moisture extending from the Pacific across the Plains. Due to the moist nature of the air mass in place, warm rain processes (skinny CAPE/warmer thermal profiles), and slower individual cell motions, any thunderstorms could produce heavy rain (flash flood threat). Regarding temperatures: After cold front and upper low shift east, air mass will be slightly cooler Tuesday than today. If cloud cover and precip remains similar to today then we may barely warm out of the low 70s over parts of our CWA. Other areas may reach the low 80s assuming the cloud cover thins out enough. I trended the temperature from consensus towards the lower end of guidance as confidence in clearing is low.
Fast Moving Showers/Embedded Storms will bring Gusty Winds and The current forecast track for Tropical Depression Nine shows low pressure over the south-central Gulf lifting slowly northward Tue- Tue night with a shift toward the northeast on Wed- Wed night taking it toward the northeast Gulf. Higher than normal POPs will be forecast even with the tropical low pressure off to the west.
This front will be followed by cooler, drier air and a break from recent daily rains.
147 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday.