Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sprawling high pressure to our north will get a bit of a reinforcement through tomorrow and tomorrow night which will result in the development of breezier northeasterly winds. This will cut into the high temperature potential near the lake with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s with low 70s more prevalent inland and south of I-80. Did knock dewpoints down a bit with indications of fairly strong mixing tomorrow afternoon which should support afternoon RH values dipping into the low 30s south of the Kankakee River Valley.
A mid level trough continues in the west with a ridge over the central Plains this afternoon. A lee side trough was analyzed over eastern colorado with southerly winds across the state this afternoon.
As a result, the main ridge and its southwest extent into the Panhandles with large scale descent in the atmosphere will continue with dry weather conditions. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will range from the lower to upper 50s.
Influence from Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will steadily wane overnight. Aloft, a mid-lvl trough will be centered across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, with an embedded cut-off low meandering north of the region this weekend.
334 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Currently, Ian and its associated upper trough are centered over the Carolinas. This system will slowly move north-northwest while prohibiting upper level flow from progressing, and leaving the middle of the country under an upper level ridge that will slowly build into the Mississippi Valley over the weekend. At the surface, the pattern is blocking high pressure in the region. This high pressure will keep clear skies and light winds in the forecast through the weekend.
This will repeat again overnight tonight with light winds and cooler temperatures.
(Through Tonight) A trough of low pressure extending south from the remnants of Ian, will be be across the southeastern US Today. Highs in the lower to middle 80s are expected. The trough will move southeast into area Tonight, with dry air keeping skies mainly clear. Lows Tonight will be unseasonably cool with lows ranging from the mid 50s inland to the lower 60s along the coast.
119 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will bring rain showers and gusty winds to the region today as the disturbance continues north.
Discussion: The current weather pattern across the CONUS is characterized by Hurricane Ian across the Carolinas/Georgia, a closed mid level low over the Intermountain West, and ridging squeezed between the two across much of the west-central CONUS (including us here in KC and surrounding areas). This has resulted in another mostly sunny afternoon here with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and temperatures tonight/early Saturday morning falling into the mid to upper 40s. Not a whole lot changes over the next several days as the low pressure system associated with the remnants of Ian remains in place over Appalachia/the Mid-Atlantic while the low over the Intermountain West slowly slides eastward into the Northern Plains and mid level ridging continues over us.
02z temps are running mostly in the lower to middle 60s with a few locations in the 50s across SW AR and SE OK where winds have become calm. This is due to the lingering influence of Hurricane Ian to the east and upper level ridging to our west. As Ian continues eastward, the ridging will build in from the west across Texas, maintaining radiational cooling for minimum temperatures (in the lower 50s tonight and tomorrow night) and boosting a gradual warm-up in maximum temperatures (in the lower 80s).
1155 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 A slow moving upper low will produce periods of rain and seasonally cool temperatures through Saturday.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Mid-level ridging and high pressure will keep halcyon conditions in play through the short term.
/EC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: Continued dry and fair weather is expected through tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. As the wind diminishes, dry air and clear skies will allow for effective radiational cooling and we continue to blend toward the cooler half of the model guidance ensemble.
/NEW/ /This Weekend/ An deep latitudinal, albeit relatively weak upper ridge will remain right on top of the Southern Plains and nation's Heartland through the weekend. Very little fluctuation or movement of the ridge is expected the next 48 hours, as this feature will be sandwiched between fairly deep troughs over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard (pretty much Ian's extratropical remnants) and a closed northern Rockies/Plains upper low. The remnants of Ian will remain well to our east, while weak mid level ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains.
High pressure aloft will build to the west of the Quad State as the remnants of Ian lift northward along the Appalachians.
A blocky mid to upper level pattern will lead to dry and slightly above normal temperatures for the weekend, as the upper level ridge remains centered over the region.
Upper lvl ridging is expected to persist over W TX and SE NM on Saturday as a tandem of cutoff lows to the west of our region keep precipitation chances confined to the mountains of N MX and C NM.
With the low moving in, even minimal heating will bubble up more shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and tonight. The low will continue to meander in place over western WY, keeping the precip chances in place.
Currently, a cold front bisects the area, positioned roughly just west of Highway 83. Aloft, the area sits under the influence of an upper ridge, with a slow moving upper low positioned off to the west over southern Idaho. For today and tonight, broad southwesterly flow will persist aloft as the upper ridge begins to slowly translate east through the day tomorrow. The aforementioned upstream upper low will progress very little as an omega block establishes across the CONUS as the remnants of Hurricane Ian enters the Appalachians.
Expect temperatures to reach the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
258 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms were rotating around an upper low currently situated along the eastern Idaho/Wyoming border and into the area early this morning. Expect showers to increase in coverage this morning over the area as the next wave of moisture and divergence rotates around the low into the region.
252 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Blocking regime remains in place aloft with a weak mid/upper ridge over the central states and westerlies of note relegated to Canada.
249 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 * Quiet weather with some gusty winds will continue Some high clouds from Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian were streaming across the far eastern portions of central Indiana early this morning, while skies were clear elsewhere. The area was in between Ian to the east across North Carolina and high pressure to the west and north from Michigan to Illinois. A similar pattern was aloft with ridging to the northwest. Warmer air aloft will continue to help prohibit cumulus development for the most part. Sunshine will boost temperatures into the lower and middle 70s this afternoon. The pressure gradient between the high and Ian will keep sustained winds in the 10-15 mph range this afternoon, with mixing bringing down gusts to 25 mph.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder remain this evening near the Arizona-Utah border as a trough passes through Utah. Outside of the showers, cool but slightly warmer than normal overnight lows are expected. Storms are expected to initially develop over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Bradshaw Mountains in the late morning into the early afternoon. A low pressure system was located over the western states on Friday, centered over Idaho.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated tonight along with cool conditions in the low to mid 50s. It will remain dry with temperatures in the low 80s for today. Tonight, the low will be in the mid to upper 50s. It will be a little warmer tomorrow with Highs in the mid 80s.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 70s to the upper 50s. Meanwhile closer to home, northerly flow on the west side of Ian is maintaining a cool, dry airmass across the area with ridging centered over the Midwest region.
303 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Strong mid-level ridging to the east will continue to act as a blocking feature and hold any remnants of Ian from a westward progression. Main impacts to the forecast will be the high based cloud coverage, which will pose a challenge to forecast highs today. For tonight, we should see clouds slowly begin to retreat back to the east as the mid level ridge shifts a bit further east.
346 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 High pressure remains in control of the northern portions of our forecast area today.
Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered over Central Canada. with ridging extending southward into the Western Great Lakes region. Weak moisture-starved cold front is draped across Northern Lake Superior and SE Ontario. Cold front to our north will sag southward into Northern Wisconsin and Northern Michigan today.
(Today and tonight) Dry northwesterly flow will continue today with Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian located well northeast of the area. Mostly clear skies are expected with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s and overnight lows ranging from the low 50s across the normally cooler locations to near 60 along the coast.
No changes will be made to the overnight low, with most of the region again on pace to cool into the lower 40s, with the typical cold spots dipping into the upper 30s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes weaken over the upcoming day, with another high pressure center approaching the same area via Canada. Temperatures will warm only slightly for Saturday, with morning lows in the lower to mid 40s, and highs in the lower to mid 70s.
An area of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes down into the gulf states with the high pressure stretching from the eastern slopes of the Rockies into Georgia.
1120 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Closed upper low over the northern Rockies will slowly migrate east the next few days, supporting increasing chances for rain and cooler temps. Sfc cool front continues to slowly shift east across the high plains with mid-level monsoon moisture spreading NE. First impulse rotating along the east side of the upper trough will shift east and allow for increasing moisture and lift aloft, supporting increasing chances for showers and a few storms this evening.
Dry weather will persist over the next several days before a cold front brings precipitation chances and cooler weather by the end of the week. Temperatures will be back near our normal values today, with highs expected in the low to middle 70s.
1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure will dominate the short term period. This will lead to Saturday's morning low temperatures cooler than this morning across central and eastern areas.
we'll be able to cool rather efficiently with most locations seeing temperatures dipping into the low to mid 50s. A mid to upper level ridge settles in over the Central CONUS, which leads to a gradual warming trend.
Expect max temps generally in the lower to mid 60s away from Lake Superior, but mostly in the mid to upper 50s closer to the lake. Pleasant weather will prevail this weekend as high pressure settles into Ontario at the surface with upper ridging over central Canada. Nonetheless, there should still be plenty of sunshine tomorrow afternoon with daytime highs topping off in the low to mid 60s (mid to upper 50s along lakeshore).
Somewhat drier conditions will spread into the area late tonight as the low slowly drifts northward and drier air moves in from the south.
Latest WV imagery shows cutoff upper low over far west central Wyoming, with a number of waves rotating through the upper circulation. At the surface, low pressure was centered over central South Dakota with strong high pressure over southern Canada, resulting in a moderate northeast surface flow across most of the forecast area.
316 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 The stagnant omega-style blocked pattern persists today with troughing aloft overhead and ridging to the west. So generally expecting similar conditions to Friday but slightly gustier with a degree or two warmer afternoon maxes.
Meanwhile a stronger marine inversion has helped keep the coast warmer.
Highs will again be on the warmer side with readings in the lower 80s but dry air will keep conditions nice. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s with some upper 40s possible in outlying locations.
316 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Low pressure has been slow to vacate the region, and has continued to bring wrap-around showers to western Montana. As the low pressure system finally pulls away, Sunday looks precipitation-free for most areas. Models are in agreement that a high pressure ridge will set-up once again, and hold for most of the week.
Otherwise, the KBYX radar shows no precipitation across the island chain with visible satellite showing mostly clear skies across the Lower Keys and partly cloudy skies over the Middle and Upper Keys. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Northerly winds will persist for today, keeping high temperatures in the mid 80s with dew points holding in the lower 70s.
* Quiet weather with some gusty winds will continue Some high clouds from Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian were streaming across the far eastern portions of central Indiana early this morning, while skies were clear elsewhere. The area was in between Ian to the east across North Carolina and high pressure to the west and north from Michigan to Illinois. A similar pattern was aloft with ridging to the northwest. Warmer air aloft will continue to help prohibit cumulus development for the most part. Sunshine will boost temperatures into the lower and middle 70s this afternoon. The pressure gradient between the high and Ian will keep sustained winds in the 10-15 mph range this afternoon, with mixing bringing down gusts to 25 mph.
Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered over Central Canada. with ridging extending southward into the Western Great Lakes region. Weak moisture-starved cold front is draped across Northern Lake Superior and SE Ontario. Cold front to our north will sag southward into Northern Wisconsin and Northern Michigan today. with ridging extending southwestward into Eastern Upper and Lower Michigan thru tonight. Forecast period begins with the remnants of Hurricane Ian over West Virginia with high pressure centered over eastern Ontario and ridging through the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and rain-free weather through this forecast period. As the remnants of Ian begins an eastward movement it allows the high pressure over Ontario to continue to build over the forecast period and begin to loosen the pressure gradient over northern Michigan.
554 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Currently, Ian and its associated upper trough are centered over the Carolinas. This system will slowly move north-northwest while prohibiting upper level flow from progressing, and leaving the middle of the country under an upper level ridge that will slowly build into the Mississippi Valley over the weekend. At the surface, the pattern is blocking high pressure in the region. This high pressure will keep clear skies and light winds in the forecast through the weekend.
As discussed previously, the region's weather will continue to be influenced due to post-tropical cyclone Ian's churn over the middle Appalachia and transition into an extratropical cyclone through today, and the stout H500 trough parked over the northern Rockies. In response, upper ridging will continue to build and linger over the Plains and Midwest into midweek.
The low clouds and fog will burn off later this morning. The Medford forecast area is currently under dry north to northeast flow aloft between a low over Idaho and Wyoming and a long wave ridge offshore.
Impacts are low through the short term as a trough continues to dig into the northern Rockies. Warm air advection ahead of the trough helps spark chances for showers and maybe an isolated rumble of thunder at times throughout the weekend. Some mixing is observed through the lower levels, but lapse rates remain at or below 7 degrees C/km. Gusts that reach the surface in the afternoon Saturday and Sunday may reach 20-25kts at times, but anything stronger looks unlikely due to the lower lapse rates. Otherwise, thanks to the warm air advection ahead of the trough we can see temperatures remain well above the average for this time of year.
The high clouds over our far eastern counties could keep temperatures in those areas a little cooler this afternoon, but everyone else can expect to close in on 80 degrees once again. With dry grounds, RH values in the low 20s and breezy conditions, Marginal Fire Weather danger will likely be reached for several hours this afternoon in these areas. This means high pressure, clear skies and afternoon temperatures hovering around 80 degrees for most of the week.
A backdoor cold front moving across the region tonight should bring some middle clouds. Highs today and lows tonight should be a few degrees above normal, with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday with weak cold advection behind the front.
The stagnant omega-style blocked pattern persists today with troughing aloft overhead and ridging to the west.
514 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will bring rain showers and breezy conditions to the region today. Previous Discussion: Broken rain showers will continue to slowly advance into the region as the center of Post- Tropical Cyclone Ian advances slowly into the South Central Appalachians. Advisory-level wind gusts will continue for the next few hours along the ridges of West Virginia as a strong vertical wind profile associated with Ian drifts north. Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will continue to decay late tonight and into early Sunday morning as dry air north of the Great Lakes advances south, and the remnant low transforms into an open wave and tracks east. However, rain showers remain possible through late Sunday east of Pittsburgh with lingering low- level moisture entrapped along the ridges.
Today: Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will move farther away from the region today, although the influence of the parent upper low will remain.
An increase in the gradient between Ian and high pressure to the north will bring sustained northeast wind speed above 10 knots, with an accompanying increase in gustiness this afternoon. The pairing between central CONUS ridge amplification and eastern Canadian troughing act to block the northward advance causing the disturbance to degrade over the weekend. Still expect afternoon gusts in the 20-25 mph range today for the Greater Metro area as the northwest periphery of the low-level wind field brushes past the southern waterways, although recent model trends have lowered the coverage/frequency of 30 mph peak winds. Partial cloud coverage props up overnight lows to around 50F as a transient back-door (dry) cold front spills through Southeast Michigan.
Overnight rainfall has been sporadic and light, but expect the bulk of the precipitation to occur today as the low begins to lift northward.
However, a weak cold front is progged to move down Lake Michigan during the late morning and into the afternoon and begin a weak regime of CAA from the sfc into the low lvls of the atmosphere. Sunday will be similar to today, albeit cooler with highs in the low to mid 60s owing to the weak post frontal CAA and northeasterly winds.
Blocking regime remains in place aloft with a weak mid/upper ridge over the central states and westerlies of note relegated to Canada.
406 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 The closed upper low was centered over southeast ID. 4 AM temperatures ranged from the low 40s to low 50s. Model consensus progs the upper low center to lift north-northeast across western WY and central MT through Sunday, then slowly track east toward the western Dakotas Sunday night. High temperatures will be slightly warmer with mid 60s to mid 70s.
Low pressure centered over southeastern Idaho early this morning will move little over the next couple of days. Main storm activity will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim with development occurring over the higher terrain first before expanding in coverage elsewhere.
720 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will bring rain showers and breezy conditions to the region today. Rain showers will continue to be intermittent throughout the day with the support of vorticity advection of post-tropical cyclone Ian and jet interaction. There is plenty of moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere due to the tropical nature of the system. Wind gusts will decrease below Advisory criteria in the WV ridges after sunrise, however 25-30mph gusts could be observed throughout the region today. Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will continue to decay into early Sunday morning as dry air north of the Great Lakes advances south, and the remnant low transforms into an open wave and tracks east.
High pressure and offshore flow will lead to dry and mild weather over the next several days.
Low pressure, the remnants of Ian, will move from North Carolina into Virginia by days end. An occluded low could form near the Delmarva, with an associated cold front to trail to the south over the Atlantic to the Bahamas. Deep low pressure aloft will prevail over the area, with the resulting colder air aloft and fairly steep lapse rates to produce flat cumulus/stratocumulus through the day. Tonight: A weak cold front will push offshore tonight. Winds will got light/variable to calm after sunset, the turn more northerly and increase a tad as the cold front clears the coast. Lows will range from the mid 50s inland to the lower- mid 60s at the beaches. An upper trough will remain situated across the eastern conus while high pressure lingers over the central U.
High pressure, northerly flow and dry conditions remain with plenty of sun.
Latest WV satellite shows an omega block pattern over the CONUS, with the remnants of Ian over the Piedmont, an upper low over ID/UT, and a ridge over the Plains. Saturday and Sunday, blocking pattern begins to slowly break down with upper ridging weakening over the Plains as the ID/UT upper low begins to transition to an open longwave trough as it slowly advances eastward. With relatively warm temperatures aloft still in place given the presence of the upper ridge, highs should return to the 80s both days.
An upper ridge to the west will slowly shift east towards AR.
610 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Today and tonight) Dry northwesterly flow will continue today with Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian located well northeast of the area. Mostly clear skies are expected with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s and overnight lows ranging from the low 50s across the normally cooler locations to near 60 along the coast.
900 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Upper level low pressure will keep spinning over WV/VA for the next two days.
Our corner of the state will be caught between a ridge building near the west coast and troughiness downstream to our east.
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) With a closed upper-level low pressure over the northern Rockies and the remnants of Ian across the Mid-Atlantic, our area is caught in between. Persistent ridging will dominate the short term forecast as a result. No rain is forecast with subsidence under the ridge through this weekend. Overall, the weather remains very nice across the region, though on the warmer side.
Temperatures have remained in the lower to mid 80s with dew points comfortably in the lower 70s. What remains of Ian is now wedged between the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic and a building ridge moving into the western Great Lakes Region.