Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In keeping with the trend so far this week, temperatures will increase again today with most locations in the CWA reaching the low to mid 90s. Conditions further heat up tomorrow in response to strong southerly flow as low pressure develops in western Kansas. Dew points in the low to mid 60s should keep humidity relatively low, helping to keep heat index values near actual temperature readings.
Aloft, the upper level flow will be losing its northwesterly component and becoming more zonal which will continue to bring in dry continental air but will allow for warmer air to advect in over the coming days. Winds will start to increase Thursday as pressure gradients tighten up due to a low pressure system stretching from the Northern Plains into the southern Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to get to the mid 80s and increase to the low 90s tomorrow.
717 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure over the region will move east today. A weak cold front then approaches from the north tonight.
Last nights 500 mb plot placed the upper high north of Flagstaff. This high will gradually push east today into NW NM.
The 5 AM cool spot was Bridgeport at 61, while the warmest readings were in the heart of Dallas, which were sitting steady in the mid 70s. A warming trend will begin today as an upper ridge strengthens overhead, though temperatures will be more seasonable compared to the most recent hot streak.
The main story for the short term period is what will happen with an area of low pressure in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Deterministic guidance shows this low generally migrating west and near the Middle TX coast before moving onshore. 0 today into Thursday, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially along the coast and in areas to the east of the eventual track of this low.
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. Warming trend gets underway with maxT rising +4 to +8F from yesterday with highs in the upper 70s in the Alleghenies to the mid 80s over the south central ridge and valley region. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
Forecast remains unchanged for this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming more scattered and for the most part confined to south of I-40 and the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians where there is better moisture and terrain forcing respectively. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop in the central and southern TN Valley this afternoon, but with the low chance of hitting a terminal, will only mention as VC for now. Warmer and more humid today with a small chance of showers/storms in southern sections. Model moisture profiles show southern sections maintaining deeper moisture today, but with weak forcing and instability near the inverted trough.
536 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Mid-level high pressure was centered near the Four Corners early this morning according to RAP13 analyses and confirmed by observed cloud motion in IR imagery and shower returns from regional radar mosaic. The positioning of the high serves as an impediment to direct influx of subtropical moisture, though residual moisture combined with a more gradual influx from the West has kept precipitable water levels above climatological norms across the area. A low-amplitude mid-level short wave trough brushes the north this afternoon which is expected to favor increased coverage there compared to areas to the south. Temperatures will run near persistence, or a little warmer for most locations today, but timing and placement of showers/storms brings a wildcard to the mix.
404 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A low amplitude trough over southern Alberta will push east across southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. The forecast area will be under the right-entrance region of this trough today and Thursday. The high resolution models suggest the central and southern areas will have the best chance of convection today, and more confined to southern areas Thursday. A weak cold front will push south, east of the Divide today, but should wash out Thursday. Having said that, temperatures Thursday will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler east of the Divide, with only around 5 degrees cooler across the west and southwest.
Visibile satellite streamlines and surface observations place a weak inverted trough extending northeast from the Keys towards east- central Florida. The lower troposphere lacks deep moisture, and SFC convergence is meager. Gentle east to southeast breezes will continue across the Keys coastal waters through Thursday morning, as weak high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Easterly breezes will freshen from late Thursday through the weekend, with nighttime surges and daytime lulls, as high pressure builds westward into the Southeast United States.
953 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. High clouds starting to move into the northern tier ahead of the weak cold front near Lake Ontario. High temperatures today will warm nicely to the low to mid 80s, which is about average for this time of year. Low temperatures tonight will provide one last night of cool refreshing weather before the warmer temperatures arrive. Tonight, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
614 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains beneath northwesterly upper level flow downstream of a building ridge over the western CONUS. The high will continue to drift further east of the region over the next few days, turning low level flow to the southwest.
958 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
343 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Upper trough over southern BC will slide east today pushing a front across eastern Montana. A secondary front drops south on Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and a brief shot at some showers along the Canadian border. Another ridge moves into the area to start off the 4th of July weekend bringing continued dry conditions and above average temperatures. By late in the weekend an upper low digging off the west coast could begin to pull monsoonal moisture northward along with some low level Gulf moisture as well.
High pressure ridging across northern Florida and an inverted trough located near the Bahamas will keep a predominant easterly wind flow over the peninsula today. This will also keep the west coast sea breeze relatively close to the coast allowing for the highest POPs and stronger storms to be confined closer to the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours. High pressure in the Atlantic ridges across Florida and into the eastern gulf producing ESE winds around 15 knots or less through the week.
I anticipate that this will change as daytime heating helps to destabilize the airmass across the High Country. There are some hints from the higher resolution NWP that convection may persist even as late as midnight into Thursday and given the consensus, I'll maintain a 20-30 PoP across the Verde Valley through the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to transpire on Thursday when the 500mb ridge axis continues to scoot eastward.
713 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. Warming trend gets underway with maxT rising +4 to +8F from yesterday with highs in the upper 70s in the Alleghenies to the mid 80s over the south central ridge and valley region. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
555 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure over the region will move east today. A weak cold front then approaches from the north tonight.
Winds this afternoon are somewhat light and variable, with a lake breeze bringing east winds near Lake Michigan, and southerly winds starting to develop across south central and southwestern Wisconsin as a warm front starts to lift into the area. A cold front will start to move south into the area tomorrow evening, with at least scattered thunderstorms along the front tomorrow evening and night.
1023 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Disturbance over the Gulf remains poorly organized as it heads steadily westward toward the Lower TX Coast, but it is helping to generate a fair amount of shower/TSTM activity over the coastal waters this morning. A few showers are starting to pop up/spread into the Lower Atchafalaya Basin, and expect additional development across the area this afternoon into this evening.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and lingers through the holiday weekend. Thursday will be even warmer, with lower elevation highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as the upper ridge axis shifts over the area.
A southwest component to the wind will also result in warmer afternoon temperatures.
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The atmosphere looks to remain quiet for today under the influence of an upper ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Expect sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s, near normal for this time of year. An upper trough digs into the northern plains Thursday, and an associated cold front will begin to sag across central plains.
/ISSUED 517 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Upper-level ridging exits out of the state moving eastward, opening the doors for a more zonal flow to take over, resulting in strong, westerly winds to make way across North-central Montana today.
1154 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A low amplitude trough over southern Alberta will push east across southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. The forecast area will be under the right-entrance region of this trough today and Thursday. The high resolution models suggest the central and southern areas will have the best chance of convection today, and more confined to southern areas Thursday. A weak cold front will push south, east of the Divide today, but should wash out Thursday. Having said that, temperatures Thursday will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler east of the Divide, with only around 5 degrees cooler across the west and southwest.
High pressure ridging across northern Florida and an inverted trough located near the Bahamas will keep a predominant ENE-ESE wind flow over the peninsula today. This will also keep the west coast sea breeze relatively close to the coast allowing for the highest POPs and stronger storms to be confined closer to the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours.
WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: Winds will be on the increase tonight into tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching low pressure system. A low pressure system near Hudson Bay produces a cold front that will move southeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.
In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered south of I-40 and the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians where there is better moisture and terrain forcing respectively.
350 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
(The rest of today ) Water vapor shows a broad region of dry mid-level air within a ridge axis stretching from southeast CO into northwest AR helping maintain clear skies.
Low-level ridging shifts east of the region tonight, allowing southerly return flow to develop. It will be quite warm and more humid with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s in most places.
as a trough of low pressure ahead of the approaching frontal boundary helps diminish the pressure gradient across the local area.
215 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Monsoonal moisture that got tied into jet stream enegy around an upper low over British Columbia triggered an area of showers and thunderstorms this morning that are now exiting to our northeast. TFJ Upper trough over southern BC will slide east today pushing a front across eastern Montana. A secondary front drops south on Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and a brief shot at some showers along the Canadian border. Another ridge moves into the area to start off the 4th of July weekend bringing continued dry conditions and above average temperatures. By late in the weekend an upper low digging off the west coast could begin to pull monsoonal moisture northward along with some low level Gulf moisture as well.
SELY flow around Bermuda high pressure will mark a return of more typical summertime heat and humidity to end the week and into the holiday weekend. Thereafter, diurnal heating into the lwr-mid 80s for most, to upr 80s over the wrn Piedmont, will support the development of scattered afternoon showers/storms primarily over the srn Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where outflow from convection over SC will be most likely and influential, and also along a lee trough over the far wrn/nwrn Piedmont and Foothills. The aforementioned moisture advection, along with clearing skies as heights aloft rise within a sub-tropical ridge that will expand across the Carolinas, will support the development of stratus and fog --some possibly dense-- overnight. Underneath increasingly heights aloft as a ~592dm anticyclone builds over the region, the quasi-stationary front becomes increasingly diffuse and difficult to identify.
Midday satellite loop showed deeper cumulus clouds over the higher terrain of Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties, with a few lightning strikes in Mohave. Tomorrow should be much quieter as drier and more stable air ahead of weak troughing along the West Coast works its way across our CWA from west to east, limiting thunderstorm chances to far eastern Mohave County.
A cold front will bring in drier air for tomorrow with lower dewpoints. The period begins with a strong upper trof over Hudson's Bay, and flat ridging over the Rockies. As time rolls on, that ridge over the Rockies will gradually amplify, and perhaps shift a bit to the east.
With a warmer start to this evening, and southerly flow becoming more widespread, expect overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer tonight than last night, but still a few degrees below normal ranging from around 60 to 65 in most locations. The progression of warming temperatures will continue into Thursday with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s in the south-southwest flow pattern.
220 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Much drier air has begun to infiltrate the mid and upper levels as upper level ridging over the Four Corners region gradually expands eastward. Upper ridging will flatten somewhat as it shifts further overhead tomorrow, with continuing subsidence allowing warm and dry weather to continue. /DWK Very few forecast challenges are evident in the extended realm as a zonal ridge axis tends to linger over or near our area for much of the time. The dry layer aloft currently over most of the southern Great Plains is scheduled to slowly modify through the end of the week as mid-level winds turn more easterly immediately south of the flat ridge axis.
Satellite imagery shows disorganized convection over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of the low pressure area. Latest tropical model guidance shows the low will continue westward this evening and then turn northwest overnight. Most of the models show the low pressure area moving northward on Thursday and moving inland over the northern Coastal Bend and Mid-Coast region late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening. This latest forecast track of the low will push the higher moisture toward the Mid-Coast. Scattered convection will affect the coastal plains Thursday into Thursday night as the low moves northward and a mid level low drifts inland.
Thanks to a large area of stratiform precipitation over southeastern MS into southwestern AL this morning and early afternoon, high temperatures were kept in check across this area topping out in the lower to locally middle 80's. Lows should fall into the lower to middle 70's for most locations.
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 (The rest of today ) Water vapor shows a broad region of dry mid-level air within a ridge axis stretching from southeast CO into northwest AR helping maintain clear skies.
Current radar trends show convection coverage increase and merge as the axis of a trough centered roughly along I-95 helps strengthen low-level convergence through the area. The sfc pattern is expected to feature a weak ridge centered over the Fall Line of the Carolinas and GA as a trough remains near the coast of GA/SC. A spoke of vorticity associated with the low may reach the coast and adjacent waters by daybreak Thursday. Low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 70s.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and linger through the holiday weekend. Thursday will be even warmer, with lower elevation highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as the upper ridge axis shifts over the area. Dry weather will begin the short term period Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front moving southeastward from the Great Lakes.
Storms should be ongoing across northern South Dakota and will likely approach the south central North Dakota border around 00z, focused along a surface warm front under moderate instability. Another round of storms may accompany the cold front passage towards 06z or so, but these storms may not be as strong given waning instability. Some showers and storms may linger southeast Thursday morning as the wave departs, but most of the day will be characterized by cooler temperatures and a mostly sunny sky as weak high pressure moves in across the west.
301 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Low pressure was located in the Central and Northern Plains with high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
1138 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. High clouds starting to move into the northern tier ahead of the weak cold front near Lake Ontario. High temperatures today will warm nicely to the low to mid 80s, which is about average for this time of year. Low temperatures tonight will provide one last night of cool refreshing weather before the warmer temperatures arrive. Tonight, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
/Tonight through Thursday night/ Key Messages: *Gusty winds overnight into Thursday *Chance of storms beginning Thursday evening A warm front gradually drifted northward this afternoon, giving way to gusty southerly winds advecting in warm, more moist air. An area of low pressure to the northwest combined with a strong low-level jet will preserve the gusty winds through the night tonight. Persistent warm air advection from the strong southerlies will keep low temperatures slightly warmer tonight. The low to the west along with a tailing cold front will reach Iowa by Thursday evening, however models continue to downplay chances for convection in this timeframe.
This high pressure will continue to remain in place through the remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. High pressure continues into the day Thursday before a weak system skirts the area for Thursday afternoon.
112 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 An increasingly warmer and more humid summertime pattern through late week will precede showers and thunderstorms to begin the Independence Day weekend. High clouds starting to move into the northern tier ahead of the weak cold front near Lake Ontario. High temperatures today will warm nicely to the low to mid 80s, which is about average for this time of year. Low temperatures tonight will provide one last night of cool refreshing weather before the warmer temperatures arrive. Tonight, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a stray/isolated thundershower: 1) over parts of northern tier mtns ahead of a weak cold front approaching the lower lakes or 2) near/southeast of the I-81 corridor along instability/lee trough axis.
251 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The upper level low parked over the Florida Keys last night and this morning appears to be drifting west on water vapor imagery this afternoon. This cyclone is disconnected from the weakly veering profile sampled this morning by the KKEY RAOB. The upper low will meander about the Keys, South Florida, and the Straits tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, a large anticyclone will take shape over the western North Atlantic, lending to freshening east to southeast breezes Thursday night.
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains beneath northwesterly upper level flow downstream of a building ridge over the western CONUS. The high will continue to drift further east of the region over the next few days, turning low level flow to the southwest.
418 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday before shifting to the East Coast.
143 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure shifts east away from the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Thursday.
Temps still mainly in the low to mid 70s. Some drier air will be over part of the forecast area on Thursday in the wake of the upper trough that shifted offshore with a gradient in PWATs ranging from around 1.
Water vapor satellite imagery at 18Z depicts a weak upper level ridge over roughly the southern half of the CONUS, with a pair of troughs over Quebec and far southern Alberta.
1258 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Mid-level high pressure was centered near the Four Corners early this morning according to RAP13 analyses and confirmed by observed cloud motion in IR imagery and shower returns from regional radar mosaic. The positioning of the high serves as an impediment to direct influx of subtropical moisture, though residual moisture combined with a more gradual influx from the West has kept precipitable water levels above climatological norms across the area. A low-amplitude mid-level short wave trough brushes the north this afternoon which is expected to favor increased coverage there compared to areas to the south. Temperatures will run near persistence, or a little warmer for most locations today, but timing and placement of showers/storms brings a wildcard to the mix.
1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Our forecast area will stay dry and hot in the short term under a building upper level ridge.
Highs will be in the low 90s throughout the day with mostly clear skies through this afternoon. A strong 595 dam ridge remains in place over the Desert Southwest, extending poleward into Alberta and Saskatchewan with northwesterly flow aloft feeding across the Midwest into the trough over the eastern CONUS. As the trough moves east along the US/Canada border, attendant surface pressure falls will follow suit. As the warm front lifts into the area today, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly across north MS.
This low will drag a cold front eastward into central Wisconsin by late afternoon. Several of the meso models are hinting at scattered precipitation around the area throughout the day, with the cold front coming through with only a some isolated to possibly scattered storms.