Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As weak aforementioned wave/trof axis crosses the area tonight, could see a brief period of conditions favorable for upslope snow showers in the nrn to possibly cntrl Black Hills. Mid-upper trof axis shifts east of the area by early tomorrow. Fairly quiet weather late tomorrow thru the weekend as ridge builds over the Rockies and into the Plains, bringing a return of above normal temps and dry conditions.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Tonight, some patchy fog will be possible again particularly in the lower valleys and typical fog prone areas in the northeast. Lows only dip into the middle 60s F for most with some upper 50s F in the higher terrain as southerly flow and cloud cover ahead of an approaching front hold overnight temperatures above normal.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Broad upper level troughing continues to progress over the Rockies extending into the Southern Plains. Friday morning a cold front will dive into the area reinforcing cooler temperatures. Below normal temperatures, Friday afternoon, are forecasted to reach the low 70s across much of the CWA.
It will be dry with warm temps with highs in the lower 80s for most locations, which is well above normal. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 57 66 47 / 0 20 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 58 65 43 / 0 10 90 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 82 56 64 43 / 0 20 90 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 82 57 65 40 / 10 10 80 60 0.
1005 AM MST Thu Oct 14 2021 Updated Aviation A warming trend is expected the rest of the week with highs over the lower deserts around 80 degrees today before topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s over the weekend.
Drier and noticeably cooler air will filter into the region for the weekend. For Friday afternoon, attention turns to bulk of strong energy currently exiting Intermountain Region in base of full latitudinal trough.
Models have shown a slight chance of precipitation ahead of the cold front for tomorrow morning.
255 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 The short term portion of the forecast will focus around fog potential across the SE/S for early Friday and then shift to increasing precip chances associated with a cold front followed by much cooler temps for the weekend. Friday will be another warm day as we will be in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Look for readings a bit warmer than today with 85-90 for highs. In the wake of the front, much cooler temps will follow along with breezy and gusty winds.
Focus then turns to storm potential aft 06Z as a strong storm system and cold front make their way from west to east across the region. Focus then turns to the storm system near the Four Corners and associated cold front tonight, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Upper trof axis remains to our w, generally oriented along the Rockies, leaving our area under swly flow aloft. Weak disturbance movg ejecting ahead of the upper trof continues to generate sct shwrs/tstms across portions of the region. Meanwhile, the upper trof will continue churning ewd, bringing a cold front and additional lift for shwrs/tstms during the day Friday. It appears that the greatest coverage will be across our far nrn areas, as the base of the trof passes across OK/AR. Cold front and associated convection will quickly work ewd Friday night, ushering in a cool and dry airmass.
Scattered convection will persist Friday morning into the afternoon hours as an upper level low pressure system finally approaches from the west.
Some accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations. Northwest flow will shift eastward today as a ridge-building takes place. As the ridge builds, temperatures will slowly climb across the forecast area but recent snowfall will keep temperatures slightly cooler across northern Natrona and Johnson counties.
This begins to change as we head into Friday afternoon and evening with an upper level trough pushing east across the central U. As we head into Friday, the weather gets slightly more interesting as the low to mid levels begin to moisten up amidst some better moisture advection through the column ahead of the approaching trough.
Temperatures will feel cool, but they will still be slightly warmer than normal. MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through much of the period as a large area of low pressure slowly drifts away from the region. Some improvement to MVFR/VFR is expected later this afternoon and evening before an upper level trough arrives for tonight and tomorrow bringing an MVFR deck to the region. Gusty winds will persist into tonight before diminishing Winds will increase over the lake today and turn more southwesterly as a large area of low pressure exits, but by late this evening they will begin to decrease.
The cold front that will impact our area tonight was draped across northwest Kansas. Water vapor imagery shows the mid-level trough over the Rockies with the circulation associated with the primary vort max centered over southwest Wyoming. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over west-central Oklahoma late evening (around 04Z) as the cold front progresses into northwest Oklahoma and as the low heads eastward from Childress towards Vernon.
357 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Low clouds will erode from south to north this evening but mid to high level clouds will develop later in the evening as an upper level trough approaches. In the wake of the upper level trough, skies will clear from west to east Friday morning.
Cloud cover will start to increase later this afternoon and evening as the front starts to lift back up to the north in response to the next low pressure system as it moves out onto the Plains.
The large trough axis across the central plains will send the season's strongest cold front into the CWA late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours.
Cooler conditions are anticipated tomorrow as 850 mb temperatures decrease to 0 to 5 C. An upper-level trough moves eastward through the plains and a low pressure system lifts to the northeast nearly along a surface boundary to the northwest of the Ohio River Valley.
The axis of the upper trof will then move through tonight and bring an end to any lingering precipitation overnight. Temperatures will remain cool with lows tonight at or below freezing for the majority of central and western Nebraska, but a bit warmer into the mid 30s up around the Niobrara. Highs tomorrow will generally be in the low/mid 50s.
309 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A cold front will continue to make slow progress southeastward through southeast Illinois overnight, and exit the area Friday evening. Dry and cooler more fall like weather is expected this weekend across the region. The cold front slowly approaching I-70 this afternoon will continue to make slow progress southward overnight, eventually getting a strong push eastward Friday as a stronger upper wave moves into the area bringing northwest flow. Northwest flow, a colder and drier air mass, and high pressure building into the region will bring dry and cooler conditions for the weekend.
As of 2PM CDT, temperatures were warming through the 40s into the low 50s (40s under cloudy conditions east in the CWA and low 50s in sunshine west in the CWA). All the while, the CWA will be nestled in the pressure gradient between the high building in and low pressure off to the north and east. With surface dewpoints currently in the 30s, and surface winds forecast to remain in the 5 to 15 mph range overnight, will side with the slightly warmer than freezing temperature guidance and hold off issuing any frost/freeze headlines across the western half of the CWA. The cooler than normal air in place will keep the lid on high temperatures on Friday, with more readings expected in the 50s for high temperatures.
Beginning Friday a ridge of high pressure folds over the region.
Most of the latest guidance suggests that the morning should be dry, with an uptick of convection near the cold front in the afternoon.
The cold front continues to push off into the Middle Mississippi Valley as well.
All of this shower activity, appears to be triggered by the following: good upper level trof/subtle potential vorticity anomalies, decent 700-500mb lapse rates of 8. Tomorrow we will start to see the upper level ridge build into the region. The main concern then turns to the high wind potential especially across areas along and west of the Laramie Range. We did start the High Wind Warning around 06z for Arlington, but the bulk of these winds will most likely not start cranking up until daybreak once the ridge starts moving in. The winds will also start to pick up in the high plains by midday. The gap winds will most likely continue through the early evening with warmer temperatures overnight due to the brisk downslope flow.
Water vapor imagery indicates a large, deepening trough over the Rockies, slowly advancing eastward, with a surface front still far to the NW over the central Plains.
327 PM MDT Thu Oct 14 2021 The axis of the upper-level trough will continue to dig through our area the rest of today and tonight. A cold front is expected to pass through between 4-6 PM, moving south across the plains into the evening hours. Freezing levels are fairly low, and current analysis shows around 200 J/kg of CAPE over the Palmer Divide over the next few hours. This, paired with the fast-moving cold front, means that as showers spread over El Paso County they will likely be fast moving as well and potentially convective in nature. Friday will be a bit warmer and drier than today as upper-level ridging builds in towards this weekend. Freezing Temperatures likely Friday Night which could end the.
Low clouds will erode from south to north this evening but mid to high level clouds will develop later in the evening as an upper level trough approaches. In the wake of the upper level trough, skies will clear from west to east Friday morning.
A cold front moving through the region in the morning will bring gusty north winds between 20-30kts to all TAF sites beginning between 08-13z. (This afternoon through Friday night) Broad upper level troughing continues to progress over the Rockies extending into the Southern Plains. Friday morning a cold front will dive into the area reinforcing cooler temperatures. Below normal temperatures, Friday afternoon, are forecasted to reach the low 70s across much of the CWA.
Otherwise, the rest of tonight should be similar to the last couple of nights with sufficient moisture and onshore winds of 5-10 kt in the low levels, supporting a few additional showers moving onshore through the course of tonight.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: The short term portion of the forecast will focus around fog potential across the SE/S for early Friday and then shift to increasing precip chances associated with a cold front followed by much cooler temps for the weekend. Friday will be another warm day as we will be in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Look for readings a bit warmer than today with 85-90 for highs. In the wake of the front, much cooler temps will follow along with breezy and gusty winds.
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 (This evening through Friday) In the wake of the heavy rain, cooler and drier air is filtering in nicely across west central Texas this afternoon. Tomorrow, another cold front will sweep across the area. Much cooler air will be advected in for the area, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
907 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 (Issued 907 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021) High pressure over IL/IN will keep winds light tonight. It's worth noting that some guidance, especially the global forecast models, are dry across the area tomorrow, and it's certainly possible that the low level dry air wins out and little to no precip makes it down to the surface.
656 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A cold front will continue to make slow progress southeastward through southeast Illinois overnight, and exit the area Friday evening. Dry and cooler more fall like weather is expected this weekend across the region. The cold front slowly approaching I-70 this afternoon will continue to make slow progress southward overnight, eventually getting a strong push eastward Friday as a stronger upper wave moves into the area bringing northwest flow. Northwest flow, a colder and drier air mass, and high pressure building into the region will bring dry and cooler conditions for the weekend.
First, revolving around cloud cover, temperatures, and very isolated precip chances as a vort lobe/subtle mid level wave swings through the trough in place across the region. Have included some sprinkle mention along the Highway 20 corridor, and not anticipating much more than that as precip will likely evaporate before reaching the ground. This cloud cover and precip potential may keep temperatures a bit warmer through the overnight, particularly across northwestern IA. Aforementioned cloud cover and its extent keep temperatures warmer as well, which may keep areas further south warm enough to avoid widespread frost. For Friday, expect a fairly similar day compared to Thursday as the mid/upper trough axis continues to slide over the Central and Northern Plains.
Ridging over the area will keep dry and warming conditions across the area into the weekend with generally light wind.
Tonight, some patchy fog will be possible again particularly in the lower valleys and typical fog prone areas in the northeast. Lows only dip into the middle 60s F for most with some upper 50s F in the higher terrain as southerly flow and cloud cover ahead of an approaching front hold overnight temperatures above normal.
The cold front will move into west Arkansas in the morning and will be in central sections at 18z.
Upper trough moving east out of the Rockies and southwestern states will approach the Panhandles this evening and tonight. This upper trough will quickly track east by 12Z Friday with drier northwesterly upper flow behind the departing upper trough. Cold front forecast to exit the Panhandles this evening as a reinforcing surge of colder air advects southward into the forecast area from the north.
Although the low level winds will not be particularly strong, a limited tornado threat can still not be ruled out at this point.
The deep upper trough to our west will continue to move to the east through the short term. Friday morning guidance is showing another stratus deck moving west to east across the forecast area as another piece of energy moves through the trough. The upper trough axis moves across the region Friday night and we finally see some good clearing across the area.
\/Hodanish The axis of the upper-level trough will continue to dig through our area the rest of today and tonight. A cold front is expected to pass through between 4-6 PM, moving south across the plains into the evening hours. Freezing levels are fairly low, and current analysis shows around 200 J/kg of CAPE over the Palmer Divide over the next few hours. This, paired with the fast-moving cold front, means that as showers spread over El Paso County they will likely be fast moving as well and potentially convective in nature. Friday will be a bit warmer and drier than today as upper-level ridging builds in towards this weekend. Freezing Temperatures likely Friday Night which could end the.
After 14z, southerly winds will pick up around 5-7 kts, becoming SSW around 7-9 kts by 18z and VCSH expected ahead of the approaching cold frontal passage, which is just beyond the 24 hour issuance of this package.
An upper level low will exit our region tonight with very cold temperatures setting up Friday morning. Upper level ridging will build across the region in the wake of this system into the weekend.
856 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 High pressure will be in control tonight, with dry conditions expected. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s across interior southeast Georgia, the mid 60s across interior northeast Florida and the upper 60s to around 70 for the beaches. High pressure will be centered to the north northeast through this period. Subsidence under the high will limit precipitation potential. The coolest locations Thursday afternoon will be at the coast due to the onshore flow across the relatively cooler Atlantic coastal waters.
Then increasing chances for -SHRA mainly after 18Z in the vicinity of KGLH and KGWO as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
The surface cold front ahead of deep trough over the central states was now approaching the Ohio Valley with showers over Illinois, Indiana and western Kentucky late this evening.
851 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A cold front will continue to make slow progress southeastward through southeast Illinois overnight, and exit the area Friday evening. Dry and cooler more fall like weather is expected this weekend across the region. Lots of mostly clear skies in the northwest which has caused temps to drop a little quicker than expected, but still think overnight lows in the upper 40s still looks good up there given dewpoints still in the lower to middle 50s. The cold front slowly approaching I-70 this afternoon will continue to make slow progress southward overnight, eventually getting a strong push eastward Friday as a stronger upper wave moves into the area bringing northwest flow. Northwest flow, a colder and drier air mass, and high pressure building into the region will bring dry and cooler conditions for the weekend.
251 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Fair and warm weather will continue across the region today under the influence of high pressure.
High pressure will be the dominate feature across weather Kansas throughout the short term. High pressure will be the main feature across the central Plains through this weekend as the upper level trough moves eastward with upper level ridging building across the western Untied States before moving over the plains.
A rather pronounced mid level trough will affect approach the area and move through later today into this evening. There will be some jet enhancement with some left front divergence noted out ahead of the trough with some weak troughing evolving at the surface as well.
1146 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A cold front will continue to make slow progress southeastward through southeast Illinois overnight, and exit the area Friday evening. Dry and cooler more fall like weather is expected this weekend across the region. Lots of mostly clear skies in the northwest which has caused temps to drop a little quicker than expected, but still think overnight lows in the upper 40s still looks good up there given dewpoints still in the lower to middle 50s. The cold front slowly approaching I-70 this afternoon will continue to make slow progress southward overnight, eventually getting a strong push eastward Friday as a stronger upper wave moves into the area bringing northwest flow. Northwest flow, a colder and drier air mass, and high pressure building into the region will bring dry and cooler conditions for the weekend.
Gusty northeasterly winds are expected overnight into Friday morning for areas along and south of the high terrain. This is going to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer for morning lows. A longwave trough over the Rockies continues to move eastward into the Central Plains. Heights begin to rise on Friday as a ridge begins to build into the southwest off the Pacific.
A large-amplitude trough currently centered over western Minnesota is expected to cross the CWA today. Dynamic forcing associated with this trough will have the potential to develop scattered showers mainly from north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. A deep vertically-stacked low over northern Manitoba will lead to cold air advection across the CWA today as this trough moves through. The result of this CAA will be noticeably cooler high temps. This trough will exit the CWA tonight with lingering scattered showers coming to an end by tomorrow morning.
Currently the base of a high amplitude upper level trough is at the western doorstep of the FA in New Mexico. This trough will continue to traverse the FA through the day today. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal today behind a cold front. With clear skies and low dewpoints in the west and northwest FA, temperatures could very well drop below freezing for the first time this year.
353 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Increased forcing/ascent will develop today as a progressive, neutrally tilted, H50 trof shifts east into the Plains. Rain chances will continue for awhile in the post frontal environment this evening east of the MS river in a region of ascent ahead of the approaching mid level trof. However, the rain should come to an end later in the evening as the trof moves into the MS River Valley. Much cooler and drier air will rush in on the heals of the front overnight.
We should also see showers/isolated thunder as the cold front sweeps east today and early this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Showers/storms will exit eastern/southeast portions of forecast area by daybreak and areas of fog across southern portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas will also decrease as winds pick up and drier air arrives behind cold front.
High pressure will build over the park and help to set up a strong pressure gradient over the mountains to bring about localized high winds in the I-90 corridor around Livingston.
Expect gusty north-northwesterly winds to develop during the day behind the strong cold front. Although the low level winds will not be particularly strong, a limited tornado threat can still not be ruled out at this point.
121 AM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Upper trough axis is just east of the Rockies, and an upper ridge is developing over the west coast. Skies will clear and WNW winds will become breezy today as high pressure pushes into the area. The west coast upper ridge will gradually slide eastward over the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and dry weather.
Fog and stratus should gradually scatter out 14Z- 17Z ahead of a cold front.
326 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The leading edge of a surface cold front is just now (3:30am) passing through the southern portion of our CWA toward the I20 corridor. As the base of the upper level trough gradually shifts east during the day today, gradient forcing will enhance cold air advection across the region throughout the day. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 60s in most spots, a little warmer across the southern Rolling Plains.
134 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Some brief MVFR vsbys from patchy fog may impact KLAL terminal between 09-12Z, otherwise a dry subsident air mass associated with high pressure over the region will keep SHRA/TSRA out of the forecast with VFR expected at all of the terminals during the next 24 hours. /issued 723 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021/ Stacked ridging remains in place over the region, from the Mid- Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico.
These are co- located with the passage of the 500mb trough. The 500mb low over Manitoba is extending a trough through the Dakotas and NE and the Co/KS border. As we move through the day today, this trough will shift east across MN. Other than early morning sprinkles/flurries, plenty of clouds are expected to remain over northeastern SD due to the lingering trough and some cold air advection cumulus. Temperatures across the entire area should bottom out in the low 30s.
1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 06Z Aviation Discussion 10/15/21 Southerly flow will continue to bring moisture into Arkansas ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will be more likely along and near the cold front during the day Friday. The cold front will move into west Arkansas in the morning and will be in central sections at 18z.
135 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A slow-moving cold front is currently situated to the immediate north and west of the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers, and already some radar echoes are showing up in West Tennessee as a result.
1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 (This evening through Friday) In the wake of the heavy rain, cooler and drier air is filtering in nicely across west central Texas this afternoon. Tomorrow, another cold front will sweep across the area. Much cooler air will be advected in for the area, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.