Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Discussion/Marine - Freezing Rain Risk Diminishes This Morning - The forecast remains largely on track this morning with bands of showers continuing to move northeast through the area. The highest icing is expected to fall across Central Lower MI where up to a quarter of an inch is possible, including Lake, Osceola, Clare, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Montcalm, and Gratiot Counties. Icy roads and sidewalks will be the primary concern for the morning commute, particularly on bridges and overpasses. This risk should diminish fairly quickly as temperatures warm to above freezing quickly this morning helping to melt any ice accumulation. - Continuing Rain and Some Storms Today into Tonight - The icing threat diminishes mid to late morning today, but rain showers will persist through today and tonight as a warm front lifts north.
338 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low circulation is located over the northeast NE/southeast SD area early this morning. Locally, some light precipitation will continue to wrap southward across eastern portions of north central NE this morning in association with the NE/SD upper low.
Not much in the way of reports this early in the morning, but assuming a general 1 to as high as maybe 3-5 inches in some of the higher elevations in the Coteau, and maybe even in portions of Brown county. Parts of the CWA do show perhaps a freezing drizzle threat this morning, then again this afternoon, but not overly concerned about the impacts from this.
453 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The short term starts with today being much cooler, windy, and a chance for snow this evening. Tomorrow is then warmer and drier.
620 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Synoptic Setup: A very turbulent spring time pattern is setting up as extremely narrow and amplified ridges and trough couplets move across the region in 24 to 48 hours periods. Today to Tonight: A ridge crest will move across the region leaving clear skies and conditions that will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Latest WV satellite imagery shows the longwave trough now to our east across New Mexico with northwesterly flow across Arizona. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still running about 4 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The Pine Ridge may also pick up a few inches. Thursday, we enter a strong, but brief ridge.
627 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Key Points: * Much cooler day across the area today with cold front moving through this morning.
351 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Latest satellite and 500 mb analyses indicated the Pacific storm which began to impact the region last night has shifted east of the area as an open wave mid-level trough overnight. The higher valleys and mountain bases will see teens and 20s with readings in the lower to mid-30s across the lower valleys by sunrise Thursday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
Impacts from this system begin to dwindle Wednesday night as the low tracks further to the east. A pair of upper level lows are rotating across the Central Plains pulling in some good mid level moisture as highlighted in the ALPW. Several inverted troughs emanate from this low and will be impacting the Northland throughout the day. The warm nose in the lower levels associated with this system will recede to NW WI today leaving mostly snow for the MN side. NW WI will see a rain/snow mix through the day and transition back to freezing rain/snow after sunset. Additionally, the lows track is projected to be slightly further southeast than previously expected.
405 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Key Points: * Much cooler day across the area today with cold front moving through this morning.
625 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Synoptic Setup: A very turbulent spring time pattern is setting up as extremely narrow and amplified ridges and trough couplets move across the region in 24 to 48 hours periods. Today to Tonight: A ridge crest will move across the region leaving clear skies and conditions that will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
A cold front will sweep across the mid state tonight, bringing widespread showers and an organized line of storms.
430 AM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Through the weekend, night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will extend well inland, sometimes onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains.
318 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The short term starts with today being much cooler, windy, and a chance for snow this evening. Tomorrow is then warmer and drier.
554 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front is moving more quickly than previously thought. Current air temperatures range from the low 40's (northwest OK) to the low 60s (central and southern OK), and wind chill values in the 30s are being felt over northwest OK. Expect cooler temperatures today with highs in the 50s and 60s.
550 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Latest satellite and 500 mb analyses indicated the Pacific storm which began to impact the region last night has shifted east of the area as an open wave mid-level trough overnight. The higher valleys and mountain bases will see teens and 20s with readings in the lower to mid-30s across the lower valleys by sunrise Thursday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
1050 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 A strong area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes through Thursday. A warm front associated with the low will lift northward through early Thursday, then a strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night.
742 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Quick update to introduce higher probabilities of freezing drizzle along the northern edge of the precipitation shield. The Jamestown ASOS recently reported a period of freezing rain with 0. Other sites reporting BR with sub 1,000 ft ceilings and visibility below 5 miles suggests freezing drizzle may be more prevalent. Clearing skies from west to east with the building high pressure can be expected, though the east may remain cloudy through the evening. A chilly night tonight should be in store under the influence of the high pressure and radiational cooling setup.
Not much in the way of reports this early in the morning, but assuming a general 1 to as high as maybe 3-5 inches in some of the higher elevations in the Coteau, and maybe even in portions of Brown county. Parts of the CWA do show perhaps a freezing drizzle threat this morning, then again this afternoon, but not overly concerned about the impacts from this. This high remains in place through the day Thursday, with lighter north to northwest breezes across the area, and chilly temperatures. Highs will likely be stuck in the 30s in the Glacial Lakes region, but some warmer 50s are forecast to show up along and west of the Missouri River.
Forecast Key Points: - A Few Showers Possible Today - Brief Period of Snow Possible Thursday Morning - Seasonal Temperatures for the Weekend As of 3 AM Wednesday morning multiple midlevel perturbations were located within a large trough axis across the High Plains. The second was positioned across the TX Panhandle and is forecast to result in an outbreak of severe weather in the lower MS Valley this afternoon. Also at this hour, a strong surface cold front was progressing through the forecast area and currently resides from near EMP to just east of OAX. This boundary will continue to slide eastward through the morning, ushering in cooler temperatures. Temperatures will quickly warm above freezing by midday Thursday, transitioning any linger precipitation back to liquid rain.
All of this is ahead of a mid/upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest and trailing frontal boundary off of the northern California coast. High pressure then builds in over the region late in the week resulting in a gradual warming trend and return to dry weather conditions.
517 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The short term starts with today being much cooler, windy, and a chance for snow this evening. Tomorrow is then warmer and drier.
Not expecting much in the way of accumulation as the temps will still be above freezing and precip rate would be very light. Precip should move out of the southern TX Panhandle by late morning as the upper level trough pushes to our east. With the cooler air mass in place, expect highs today to reach the 50s.
800 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Sunny and seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected today under a strong high pressure system.
The pressure gradient tightens today as high pressure pulls further seaward and a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. High pressure continues to push seaward through the mid Atlc.
457 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The primary upper trough sits over the central US this morning. The disturbance that impacted the area yesterday has moved off to the east-northeast, but another couple of disturbances have yet to round the trough. Skies will remain cloudy through the day, and temperatures are expected to be much cooler than yesterday. Nearly 30 to 40 degrees cooler in some spots. Tonight:Another disturbance will dive into the parent trough and bring with it a chance for some light snow showers.
824 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Seasonably warm temperatures today and tomorrow, and a chance of thunderstorms Thursday with a cold front. The Winter Weather Advisory will be trimmed from south to north over the next few hours as the warm front quickly advances through central PA/southern NY and sfc temperatures rise above freezing.
Cooler tonight and Thursday with some showers Thursday.
This is all a result of a strong pressure gradient between high pressure situated just north of the Bahamas, and a high amplitude trough digging into the Mississippi river valley.
Looking at current water vapor imagery we are in northerly flow aloft under high pressure. The high pressure ridge axis is over western Idaho. Models continue to show this high pressure to move east today with the upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by late this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the next system.
403 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Much cooler weather can be expected today with strong north winds and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another upper level low will move southward across the central plains tonight; but given the lack of moisture, only some light snow is possible in central Kansas around Hays and LaCrosse, with perhaps a dusting of accumulation. Clouds and 10-15 mph northwest winds will prevent temperatures from falling a lot tonight, with lows in the upper 20s near the Colorado state line to the lower 30s elsewhere. If there are a few clear breaks and winds drop off more than expected, then cooler temperatures would result.
/issued 333 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ Broad upper level troughing is ejecting into the Great Plains today as weak ridging slides east across the eastern US. A tight pressure gradient between the areas of high and low pressure will create breezy southerly/southeasterly flow across the Florida Peninsula today favoring warm temperatures and increasing humidity.
Much cooler weather can be expected today with strong north winds and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another upper level low will move southward across the central plains tonight; but given the lack of moisture, only some light snow is possible in central Kansas around Hays and LaCrosse, with perhaps a dusting of accumulation. Clouds and 10-15 mph northwest winds will prevent temperatures from falling a lot tonight, with lows in the upper 20s near the Colorado state line to the lower 30s elsewhere. If there are a few clear breaks and winds drop off more than expected, then cooler temperatures would result.
Further west across the higher terrain, lingering moisture combined with favorable lapse rates this aftn will lead to some additional snow showers. Highs will range from the lower 40s over far nern CO with mid 40s to lower 50s eslewhere across the plains. A series of upper level troughs pass through the region with periodic chances for precipitation. An upper level ridge positions over CO Thursday resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
(Today and tonight) The cold front is moving more quickly than previously thought. Current air temperatures range from the low 40's (northwest OK) to the low 60s (central and southern OK), and wind chill values in the 30s are being felt over northwest OK. Expect cooler temperatures today with highs in the 50s and 60s.
We are also still have drier air in place for one more day so the high winds coupled with dry air and high ERC resulted in a Red Flag Warning across much of the area this afternoon. /issued 333 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ Broad upper level troughing is ejecting into the Great Plains today as weak ridging slides east across the eastern US. A tight pressure gradient between the areas of high and low pressure will create breezy southerly/southeasterly flow across the Florida Peninsula today favoring warm temperatures and increasing humidity.
642 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The primary upper trough sits over the central US this morning. The disturbance that impacted the area yesterday has moved off to the east-northeast, but another couple of disturbances have yet to round the trough. Skies will remain cloudy through the day, and temperatures are expected to be much cooler than yesterday. Nearly 30 to 40 degrees cooler in some spots. Tonight:Another disturbance will dive into the parent trough and bring with it a chance for some light snow showers.
631 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low circulation is located over the northeast NE/southeast SD area early this morning. Locally, some light precipitation will continue to wrap southward across eastern portions of north central NE this morning in association with the NE/SD upper low. Eventually this northern stream energy diving south will phase with the NE/SD upper low across IA during the day Thursday. Temperatures in this area will struggle to reach the freezing mark due to the combination of cloud cover/precipitation and CAA.
Sunny and seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected today under a strong high pressure system.
Further west across the higher terrain, lingering moisture combined with favorable lapse rates this aftn will lead to some additional snow showers. Highs will range from the lower 40s over far nern CO with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere across the plains. A series of upper level troughs pass through the region with periodic chances for precipitation. An upper level ridge positions over CO Thursday resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
Temperatures will be cooler tonight, with lows by daybreak in the low to mid 40s. Thursday is shaping up to be a pleasant day, with light winds, mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
As the mid level trough rotates through the CWA, scattered rain or snow showers will occur tomorrow through tomorrow evening. Highs could reach into the lower 40s, but atmosphere will be cold enough for snow showers as well. The mid level trough will push east of the area tomorrow evening, leaving the rest of Thur night dry.
A few areas will see patchy freezing drizzle as the snow ends later this morning into the afternoon hours. Not much in the way of reports this early in the morning, but assuming a general 1 to as high as maybe 3-5 inches in some of the higher elevations in the Coteau, and maybe even in portions of Brown county. Parts of the CWA do show perhaps a freezing drizzle threat this morning, then again this afternoon, but not overly concerned about the impacts from this. This high remains in place through the day Thursday, with lighter north to northwest breezes across the area, and chilly temperatures. Highs will likely be stuck in the 30s in the Glacial Lakes region, but some warmer 50s are forecast to show up along and west of the Missouri River.
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 (The rest of today ) Cold front, currently located near a MLC/Jay line, will push through the remainder of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by mid afternoon. Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two will remain possible this afternoon in association with main upper trough axis. Otherwise, cool/breezy conditions expected behind the cold front.
317 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An area of low pressure continues to push east of the region, leaving behind low clouds, gusty northerly winds, and patchy freezing drizzle. The eastern CWA should see a cloudy sky throughout the night, perhaps keeping lows on the higher side of guidance. A brief ridge on Thursday will transition to another trough on Thursday night. The ridge should bring warmer temps, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s in northeast SD, to the lower 50s, west of the Missouri River. As the trough moves into the area Thursday night, it should bring light pcpn, possibly rain and snow into west river counties.
258 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 A strong area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes through Thursday. A warm front associated with the low will lift northward through early Thursday, then a strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: A very turbulent spring time pattern is setting up as extremely narrow and amplified ridges and trough couplets move across the region in 24 to 48 hours periods. Today to Tonight: A ridge crest will move across the region leaving clear skies and conditions that will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
905 AM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Through the weekend, night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will extend well inland, sometimes onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains.
A few lingering showers will be possible into the evening along the Wyoming border, then quiet conditions are expected as upper ridge shifts toward East Idaho from the coast.
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 First off, have dropped the wrn half of the High Wind Warning area as sfc obs show winds drop off quick behind the squall line.
Winds will continue to diminish into Thursday as weak high pressure moves into the Northern Plains. A bit more sun and less cold air advection will boost temps a bit higher than today into the low 40s. Another approaching trough should bring increasing clouds and winds shifting to the south ahead of the next system on Thursday night, so have temps near 30 in the west while better radiational cooling in the east should drop readings into the teens.
Meanwhile, the cold front has made progress eastward as well, having made it through Columbia and Quincy as of 2PM. Temperatures aloft will be cold, below freezing at all levels except the surface. However, with temperatures at ground level remaining above freezing and precipitation remaining light, we do not expect any accumulation to occur. Any showers should dissipate in the evening as we lose daytime heating and the trough shifts to the east.
Heading into Thursday evening, model guidance has trended slower with the exit of precipitation on the southwest side of the departing upper level low.
Cooler temperatures return by the end of the week along with gusty winds and rain/snow showers in the western and central Alleghenies to kick of the month of April.
Morning satellite imagery showing an upper trough moving into the Pac NW with clouds increasing from the west. Flow aloft will generate breezy conditions today, and gusty winds will continue tonight across open terrain behind a cold frontal passage.
Snow ending along the Nebraska border as upper low drops south.
141 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today and tomorrow, and a chance of thunderstorms is forecast tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation chances will increase after midnight as the low pressure system skirts into the Great Lakes. Storm mode for Thursday will likely be isolated cells within the warm sector and then a broken squall line ahead/along the the cold front. Rain shower activity will continue to pass through the region late Thursday as the low tracks into New England.
Damaging wind gusts will continue to be a threat as this line moves into temperatures in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60.
(This evening through Thursday) Our upper level trough will continue to move off to the east along with the stratus and rain chances. With all of our area behind this mornings cold front passage, gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue until after sundown. It will be much colder tonight with radiational cooling enhancement with temperatures dropping near to just below freezing across northern Oklahoma, to mid to upper 30s across much of the remainder of our Oklahoma areas, to lower 40s near and south of the Red River into northern Texas. Thursday afternoons temperatures will stay slightly cooler than seasonably average for the end of March.
1254 PM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022 A weak low pressure system will provide increased cloudiness through this evening with a few spotty showers possible across eastern Pershing and Churchill counties.
258 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low was found over Iowa this afternoon as a surface cold front had moved all the way across Iowa and into Illinois this afternoon. Temperatures were in the low to mid 50s ahead of the front and behind dropped into the 40s and 30s. Rain was found with the cold front. Tomorrow the upper level low will be found across the area. Late Thursday night clouds will break up as the upper level thermal trof approaches the area.
The cloudy skies have kept have kept temperatures 4 to 9 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
There still remains the threat of severe storms producing even stronger winds/isolated TORs but latest data would suggest the southwest has the highest chance. A cold front will sweep across the mid state tonight, bringing widespread showers and an organized line of storms.
Building high pressure will bring mostly clear skies and dry wx today. Late evening should be a good time to view potential northern lights, or anytime during the night in our east, but our west will see increasing mid/high clouds late tonight as next Pacific trof approaches. JKL An amplified upper ridge will build over the region today producing dry weather with temps rebounding to the 50s/near 60 over our western lower elevations. Next Pacific trough will introduce precip to our western mountains late tonight with lows ranging from 30s west to 20s east.
Non-thunderstorm winds are already gusting into the lower 50s mph, as expected, it won't take much for damaging downdrafts. After that, the forecast is routine, and cooler. Some wrap-around may prolong a chance of showers and delay a clear-out, as the actual primary long wave trof does not fully pass until 24-36 hours later. Then it's high pressure sliding in/overhead and cooler air, with 50s/30s temps to finish out the near term. A cold front behind the storm line will shift winds towards westerly for late this evening and overnight as winds decrease but remain breezy.
1238 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Key Points: * Much cooler day across the area today with cold front moving through this morning.
1139 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Latest satellite and 500 mb analyses indicated the Pacific storm which began to impact the region last night has shifted east of the area as an open wave mid-level trough overnight. The higher valleys and mountain bases will see teens and 20s with readings in the lower to mid-30s across the lower valleys by sunrise Thursday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
Large scale flow consisting of a longwave trough extending from the upper midwest to the southern Plains.
High pressure will move to the east Tonight into Thursday morning, as a frontal system approaches from the west. The convective line with this system will be in a trough out ahead of the thermal front itself. A few tornadoes along the line will also be possible, as waves move along the trough helping to increase lift and induce rotation.
A warm front just to the southwest to west will move across the forecast area this afternoon.
159 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 A strong cold front is going to start to push through the southeast today. This has pushed the high pressure away from us but also tightened the pressure gradient over the state.