Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure builds Thursday. Low pressure will track eastward from the Great Lakes region Thursday and cross the region Thursday night. High pressure continues to retreat this evening as the decaying occlusion approaches. High pressure at the surface and aloft rebuild later tonight into Thursday. Warm air advection with this ridge will generate highs several degrees warmer today.
235 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure will drift east across the Carolinas today. This high will shift offshore on Thursday, bringing a southwest flow and warming trend, resulting in much above normal temperatures from Thursday into the weekend.
1017 AM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018 A low pressure system moving in this evening will bring rain across the basin and a mix of rain and snow to the mountain valleys of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
Upper trough is digging just off the west coast and moves onshore. Montana is pinched a bit with a strong cut-off low over James Bay in central Canada. Thursday Night, Northeast winds and cooling from the upper trough moving overhead should turn the precipitation over to snow from north to south with the heaviest accumulations along Highway 59 in southern Garfield county and points east. Slight chances for freezing rain and/or drizzle exist to the north of the snow shield where ice will be lacking at cloud tops. But with a warm ground recently, freezing wouldn't be found on most roadways, but on elevated and/or shaded surfaces.
This trough will increase the surface pressure gradient, across West Central Texas, especially this afternoon. Lows tonight will also be above seasonal normals, mainly in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Looks warmer than last night, so no frost advisory but will mention possibility of patchy frost mainly NE TN, SW VA and SW NC counties that are in the freeze program. Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of the work week with slight mid-level ridging and low level southerly winds.
221 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 As High pressure over the Tn valley moves east, and anchors off the southeast coast, and cyclogenesis occurs in the Plains, the pressure gradient across the mid Ms/lower Oh valley tightens up nicely with good, strong warm advection occurring Thu-Fri. The primary short term forecast challenge remains the developing Low pressure system/incoming Pops.
An area of low pressure will track southeastward across the region today through tonight.
850mb temperatures ranging from 18C to 20c over the forecast area this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
This will bring slightly cooler temps from north to south for Thursday.
It's been a much warmer night than what we've experienced over the past 10+ days with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Southerly winds and the advection of a more moist, spring air mass are responsible for the above freezing temperatures. Uttech Thursday A warm front is forecast to develop over southern Iowa into west- central Illinois in response to strong cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado (~982mb low). There is uncertainty as to how far north the warm front moves which will impact high temperatures.
While temperatures will be well above normal today, records seem out of reach as most are in the low 90s. Thursday high temperatures will be a little closer to records in Central Kansas but again, most records are in the low to mid 90s and appear out of reach.
344 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 The northwesterly flow aloft will gradually transition more zonal over the next 24 hours as the central CONUS ridge dampens. Temperatures at the surface continue to moderate back toward climatology as southerly winds resume, but the surface anticyclone continues to hang out over the southeast portion of the CWA, temporarily delaying moisture advection.
High pressure continues to build behind this morning's cool front, veering low-level flow from the north to the northeast overnight. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer Thursday, ranging from the mid- upper 70s along the coast to around 80 across the interior. High pressure will extend over a good portion of the SE states and along the Mid Atlc seaboard. Winds will develop a south component by Fri aftn with warmer conds and a slow increase in low level moisture. Further increase in southerly winds on Sat will bring increasing moisture and further destabilization in the afternoon as high pressure moves well out to sea. Presence of high pressure will allow for decreasing trend to wave conditions over the open Atlc.
A cold front over South Florida this afternoon will continue to move southward and into the Florida Keys tonight. High pressure will build into the southeastern United States late this week from the Central United States. The high will move east into the Atlantic waters from the Southeastern United States, as a trough of low pressure develops over the Central United States and moves east into the eastern united States. This will allow for low pressure to develop over the Central United States and move northeast into the Great Lakes pushing an associated cold front eastward towards South Florida from the west.
1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Upper level ridging currently over the Rockies will continue to flatten and provide nearly zonal flow over the area today. Quite a few high clouds have been spilling down the ridge and over the Central Plains and despite these high clouds today, favorable winds for mixing should allow highs to reach into the 70s across our north to around 80 across our south. Another warm day is expected Thursday with slightly cooler highs over northeast Nebraska behind the above mentioned cool front. Meanwhile, a large upper level trough will be moving across the western states with a lee cyclone strengthening over the High Plains region.
Increasing warm air and moisture advection will provide the support for the wintry mix, which appears to be a mix of snow and rain, possibly some freezing rain in some spots. Both the RAP and NAM soundings suggest a loss of ice in the dendritic snow growth layer Thursday morning, which should lead to more freezing drizzle vs. freezing rain. Overnight lows are anticipated to dip only into the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south.
133 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Mostly cloudy, breezy and warmer conditions are expected today with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
341 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Quiet weather will continue through the short term period as surface ridging remains in control of the pattern. The ridge will continue to move east and is progged to become centered just off the east coast by Thursday evening. Winds look to remain just high enough tonight to keep the boundary layer mixed and limit true cooling potential, so kept overnight low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance. Sunny skies will prevail again tomorrow with a brief period of zonal westerly flow aloft which will continue to support a warming trend as high temperatures climb into the low 80s across much of the area.
333 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Warmer and windy conditions are occurring over the area. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through this period with warmer temperatures on Thursday. Severe storms, winds, and the potential for freezing temperatures all exist in this period.
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 As High pressure over the Tn valley moves east, and anchors off the southeast coast, and cyclogenesis occurs in the Plains, the pressure gradient across the mid Ms/lower Oh valley tightens up nicely with good, strong warm advection occurring Thu-Fri. The primary short term forecast challenge remains the developing Low pressure system/incoming Pops.
Overnight lows will be much warmer than previous mornings averaging between the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds break by late-morning Thursday allowing temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s across the eastern two-thirds of the area with upper 80s to lower 90s along the Rio Grande, where a dry-line is expected to sit.
With temperatures above freezing, only rain is expected through early evening before the pcpn ends. S/W ridging should bring a decent day to the area, but with perhaps just a slight chance of waa pcpn across the northern CWA as we head into the afternoon hours.
Leading short wave currently moving through the region producing mainly rain across the south and a mix of freezing rain and snow north. So far this storm has not produced as much freezing rain/sleet than earlier expected although the best chance for this remains far north central.
High temperatures Thu could set a record at KRSL where there record is a bit cooler and will be close at KSLN.
The rest of the area will be under the influence of upstream high pressure with dry, northwest surface flow in place. Fog will persist through mid morning, and as the eastern extent of the high and northwest winds reach these areas, fog will dissipate. Sunny skies and drier air in the column will allow highs to reach the mid to upper 70s with the highest readings along the coast.
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Leading short wave currently moving through the region producing mainly rain across the south and a mix of freezing rain and snow north. So far this storm has not produced as much freezing rain/sleet than earlier expected although the best chance for this remains far north central.
301 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 An area of low pressure, currently over the Plains, will race east-northeast to lower Michigan by late Thursday morning. In fact, tonight's overnight lows will be warmer than most of the daily high temperatures we've seen this month (until today that is). One possible trouble area is across the far northern portion of the forecast area where the cold front trailing from tonight's system may sink into the area and produce notably cooler temperatures. A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop starting Thursday night over the Plains.
246 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure remains in control over the local area and the southeast states at large. Looking good for tonight as well as high quickly shifts east of the area, but moisture return will be very light and should continue to see mostly clear skies allowing for temps to return to the lower and mid 40s area wide.
107 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Expecting more of a rain or mix than snow this afternoon in the Devils Lake basin, as surface temperatures are near or slightly above freezing. Some light radar returns over the Devils Lake basin area may be reaching the ground as drizzle or freezing drizzle, but otherwise generally dry with slowly increasing cloud cover as precipitation moves into north central ND around mid day. a bit less in the immediate RRV due to slightly warmer temps. Freezing precipitation per HREF looks negligible in our area so removed mention. Sat - Tue Longwave trough over Hudson Bay will shift into eastern Canada. Longwave ridge over western Canada will shift into central Canada by Tue.
A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening with cool showers tonight and Thursday.
247 PM MDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Upper level analysis shows slight ridging over the western/central CONUS, with a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly winds earlier today have helped temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s across southern portions of the area, but winds are becoming gusty from the northwest behind a cold front. Upper trough will move onshore early Thursday, and chances for precipitation will increase as low pressure approaches the region. Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but still warm enough for rain. Models continue to come into better agreement on the southward track of the low.
The only caveat to the short term forecast is the low potential for light patchy frost in the northeast this morning.
Low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the immediate coast. Upper level trough will move out of the western US Thursday into Thursday night. At the surface, lee side trough will deepen tomorrow over the High Plains resulting in breezy to windy conditions, especially over the southern Coastal Bend. It will be much warmer tomorrow with highs in the low 90s out west to lower 80s near Victoria. Warm and muggy conditions can be expected tomorrow night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
315 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure continues to move east across the southern U.
High pressure ridge will build to the Northeast Tonight through Thursday, leading to a prevailing onshore flow. The airmass is expected to be fairly dry under this ridge with little in the way of sky cover through Tonight. This trough could bring some passing mainly coastal showers and low clouds through midday Fri, then best convergence and moisture will shift inland with the east coast sea breeze into Fri afternoon with a low chance of showers generally east of the I-75 corridor, but convection will be minimal and shallow with upper ridge building eastward across the FL peninsula.
1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 System that will impact the area today is coming across the Rockies, with a broad area of moisture and cold cloud tops showing up on satellite imagery moving out across the High Plains.
Zonal flow aloft, ridging at the surface, and deep layer dry air will set the stage for a quiet night weather-wise.
/issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ High pressure continues to move east across the southern U.
High pressure over the southeast U. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 40s far north to the lower 60s close to the coast from around Tampa Bay southward with highs on Thursday climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Weak upper level ridging extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northward to the western Great Lakes region. Out west, deep troughing extends from the northwest U. The upper ridging over the east coast moves eastward while the troughing further digs south with a closed upper low developing over the Kansas/Nebraska border by this weekend.
Today, the weak upper level ridge over the area will give way to more zonal flow as a negatively tilted upper level trough approaches the West Coast. Today into tomorrow, in advance of the trough, low and mid-level southwesterly flow increases, a surface lee side low deepens in NE CO, and surface gradients tighten. Tomorrow, as the upper trough traverses through the western USA the area will really start to heat up (pun intended). Gradients will tighten even more as heights fall and very warmer air is advected across the region.
favorable southwesterly mid level flow will increase during the day ahead of an approaching upper trough over the western CONUS. This system will push a cold front east across se Wy during the afternoon.
There is some very weak instability in these elevated showers along the warm front, so I kept the mention of a slight chance for thunder. Temps are expected to warm for much of the area late tonight as the warm front arrives on southwesterly winds. That mild air will help us warm into the lower 60s at least south of I-94 after the low clouds move out.
1226 PM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018 A low pressure system moving in this evening will bring rain across the basin and a mix of rain and snow to the mountain valleys of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
The freezing temperatures of this morning will be left behind as a strong warming trend continues, but brisk winds and dry air will present a wildfire danger. Low pressure passing well to our north tonight and Thursday will bring a tightening pressure gradient, resulting in increasing wind from the southwest. Will expect an initial decoupling of valleys tonight and development of a corresponding ridge/valley temperature difference.
The details thought are still fuzzy, as instability is the big question mark with this mature cyclone moving through the Midwest.
Hwy 2 late tonight and early Thursday where road temperatures are more likely to fall below freezing.
155 PM MDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Showers continue this afternoon but we'll have a little break this evening ahead of the next cold front. Tonight a cold front will move across central Idaho and into western Montana for tomorrow. This cold front will bring snow to central Idaho.
154 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 A cold front will continue to sink south across the peninsula this afternoon.
A cold front will approach the Northland today with increasing clouds this afternoon. Meanwhile a developing low pressure system will approach southern WI ushering in a moisture feed from the south. That will be fleshed out a little better when the higher rez models latch on to this event. Impact-wise the timing is good for the most part, but the Thursday morning commute may be impacted by the freezing precip overnight tonight. The focus is on what continues to look like the potential for significant snow and freezing rain, and generally unseasonably winter-like weather, late this week.
312 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 A warm front will bring some rain showers tonight and Thursday morning, especially north of Pittsburgh.
A weak trough of low pressure will move across the region later today. The next, more substantial low pressure system tracks through the Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday into Thursday night bringing a round of rain and possibly mountain snow to northern New England.
Kentucky Mesonet and other automated sites indicating that temperatures have warmed above freezing for almost all sites, thus will allow the cold headlines to expire at 9 AM, on schedule. Temperatures should rise up into the low/mid 60s across the region. Under mostly to partly sunny skies, expect highs to reach the low to mid 60s over southern IN/central KY this afternoon. This strong southerly flow will push high temps into the low to mid 70s.
306 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with high pressure promoting a clear sky, save for a few passing cirrus. Model soundings continue to show a very dry profile, indicative of strong subsidence underneath this ridge overnight. This setup, along with the drier air in place, will allow for good radiational cooling as temperatures drop into the 50s quickly by late this evening -- and eventually bottom out in the low to mid 40s in most locations by early Thursday monring.
The weak wave driving this lift was pushing through the high Plains by late afternoon with the surface wave and reflection expected to pass from NE through IA to near Lake Michigan by 12z. This will flip our current warm front to a weak cold front by Thursday. The process will repeat itself in some regards into Thursday with a similar south to north temperature gradient comparable to what is occurring today as another warm front develops ahead of the approaching parent system for the weekend.
Quiet weather can be expected through the short term as a mid/upper level high pressure system tracks eastward across the region.
Only other thing to mention is the moderate northeast winds in the low levels which has led to breezy to windy conditions on some of the coastal waters. /issued 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ Quiet weather expected for the next couple days as the upper trough to the east lifts out of the area and weak ridge passes overhead.
High pressure then makes a brief return by the end of the week. This system will bring light rain showers ahead of the cold front starting tonight. The associated cold front moves through the day on Thursday from west to east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): 500 mb and surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf of Mex, the southern Plains States and the southeastern States throughout the short term.
600 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Warmer and windy conditions are occurring over the area. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through this period with warmer temperatures on Thursday. Severe storms, winds, and the potential for freezing temperatures all exist in this period.
Winds will remain locally gusty tonight, before becoming very strong on Thursday as a cold front moves into Arizona.
The pressure gradient is starting to relax over some of the CWA with winds starting to diminish into the afternoon and almost calm less than 5-10mph this evening and overnight as the high center across the southeastern US continues to weaken and pushes eastward due to decreased convergence in the upper level pattern. Winds will pick back up out of the southwest late in the morning for Thursday as the gradient strengthens back up even more so than today as a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary pushes across the Rockies deepening as it heads towards the CWA due to increasingly upper level divergence deepening the long wave trough and weakening the upper level ridge across the western half of the country.
At the surface, high pressure was centered off to our southeast, yielding a southerly flow over our region. Additional cloudiness that was thinner and higher up was spilling into MO over an upper RIDGE to our west. All of this supports a much warmer day today, with max temps ranging from the mid-upper 60s in portions of southwest IL and low-mid 70s elsewhere. TES Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected Thursday due to south-southwesterly surface winds, and upper level ridging over the region.
and allow for the development of a slightly warmer southwesterly surface flow. Early morning temperatures which have bottomed out well below zero across the northern half of the FA should warm to around the lower 20s today. Late this afternoon should see an increase in low to mid level clouds along the CanAm border in advance of another Canadian Cold Front.
1026 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Hydro High pressure will bring fair and cold weather this week, but there will be a couple chances for some snow showers.
For a time this morning, low level flow is north to northeast increasing fetch across warmer Lake MI waters. Despite Delta-T values around 15 degrees, low levels remain dry, and the low level winds begin to back to the north to northwest this afternoon. Moderate inversion sets up tonight under clear skies, so lowering overnight low temperatures several degrees below main guidance, into the low to mid 20s.
The latter was along the top of the cold frontal surface with some weak radar returns aloft in moderate lapse rates aloft, but doubt anything more than a few sprinkles were reaching the ground. This low cloud was helping keep temperatures well above freezing for any of this precipitation to have little impact.
642 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 A cold front near the north part of the forecast area today will sink southward and through the area tonight.
As the cold front pulls eastward later today, and skies remain cloudy over our area, expect temperatures over most northern counties to hold steady or slowly fall during the day, and start to gradually fall over southern areas by this afternoon. Highs on Wednesday may actually be a bit warmer over our northern counties on Wednesday, as clouds are likely to hold toughest over southern areas through the day.
However, it does look like the front will push to the Pecos River by peak heating, thus warmer temperatures in the middle 80s are expected to the south, with another day of 90s through the Rio Grande Valley. Highs in the 50s and 60s will be confined mainly to the higher terrain and the Rio Grande Valley. Tonight through Wednesday, isentropic lift as well as the favorable location of the right entrance region of an upper jet associated with a fast- moving positively tilted upper trough will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area.
A surface cold front has moved south through the region. South of I-70 moisture is relegated to boundary layer with no cloud ice present, resulting in freezing drizzle where surface temps hover near to below freezing. Solid cloud cover and cold northerly flow through the day will hold temps in the 30s in the plains and foothills, with the higher elevations in the 20s. As high pressure settles into Nebraska and Kansas behind the front low level flow to turn east to southeast this evening/tonight. Partial clearing and near calm winds in the northern mountains will make for a cold night with lows in the low teens.