Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
306 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A cold front is currently pushing its way through the FA and stretches along a line from Plains to O'Donnell. Wind direction will be affected very little as a pre-frontal trough has already shifted the winds to a more northerly direction. Continues northerly winds and slight (not strong by any means) CAA will help keep tomorrow roughly 10 degrees cooler than today.
An upper level ridge positioned over the western U. As the upper level trough that impacted the area over the past couple of days continues to deepen and shift toward the Great Lakes, the jet core that brought the very strong winds to eastern Montana will finally depart this evening. With the ridge moving into northeast Montana Tuesday, the area will see warmer temperatures with the associated height rises, with highs ranging from near 60 to near 70 degrees in the southwest.
255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Deformation zone precipitation looks to linger through the late afternoon from near I-57 eastward due to the upper level trough over IN, lifting northeastward. After reinforcing cool air behind tonight's cold front, lows will dip into the lower 40s tonight, followed by highs only reaching the upper 40s in most of central IL Tuesday. Tuesday night, a pocket of -2 C 850 mb temperatures associated with the trough will move across central IL, producing surface temperatures approaching the freezing mark.
The reinforcing cold front is still on track to move through South Texas on Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will trend cooler into the 50s and low 60s otherwise today.
A very strong ridge of high pressure has built along the Western US, bringing clear skies across California. With a warming airmass across the region, temperatures are running 5 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Warm temperatures will be the story for the next several days, as the anomalously strong ridge lingers across the West. These forecast high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
For the I-35 sites, south-southwest winds at or below 10kt will continue this afternoon and evening before a cold front moves in early Tuesday morning. The cold front and northerly wind shift should arrive between 05-08Z wind winds initially increasing to around 10kt. The cold front is expected to move in around 07Z at DRT.
Current temperatures this morning are generally in the lower 70s, but due to cloud cover have decreased highs today. /issued 436 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ Another warm day is on tap for the Mid-South as high pressure sits to our east and weak ridging aloft.
305 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted north into Iowa and then trails southwestward through north central Kansas into southwestern Kansas.
201 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 The NAM, HRRR and HREF suggest the potential for isolated strong storms firing off the Black Hills or Pine Ridge this afternoon and this evening. The focus across the Black Hills is dirurnal destabilization and across the Pine Ridge, it's convergence around the Black Hills in conjunction with a weak frontal boundary.
206 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Main forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures for Friday along with increasing chances for showers southwest. Currently, closed upper level low moving slowly east out of the region early this afternoon, with wrap around low level moisture streaming across western and central North Dakota in the form of low level CU.
Then evolution of blocking pattern will dominate with dry conditions with a gradual warm up into midweek. Models have trended slower/deeper with the weekend short wave trough.
140 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 with a small possibility of a shower or two forming over the higher terrain across Southwest Virginia and a small part of Northeast Tennessee. The low deck and fog was lifting across western sections of the Great Valley on our way to some beautiful mid May sunshine. Insolation should boost max temperatures in the lower 80s most of the forecast area with some upper 70s to around 80 across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee.
Temperatures have remain near steady in the lower to mid 70s today with dewpoints also holding steady in the lower 70s.
215 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A persistent ridge of high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to prevail across the forecast area through the short term. This ridge will relegate any significant precipitation chances away from the area over the next couple of days.
We will keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast over western portions of our area Friday, with the higher POPs (30-50%) favored west of a Grove Hill to Mobile line (highest in southeast MS). Dry conditions are unfortunately expected across the rest of south central AL and most of the northwest FL panhandle on Friday as drier/more subsident conditions are expected across this part of our area as a result of being more under the influence of a mid level ridge nosing westward from the western Atlantic and FL peninsula. Lows tonight should range in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the upper 60s to around 70 near the immediate coast.
151 PM PDT Thu May 14 2020 A warming trend that will bring temperatures to or slightly above seasonal normals will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds over the West Coast.
351 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 H5 trough continues to move ashore off the Pacific Northwest Coast this afternoon, caught in the quick zonal flow across the northern US. Western and Central WY will start to see the effects from this trough tonight, as diffluence ahead of it spread across the state. Temperatures will remain right around normal for the day tomorrow, while cooler temperatures return Friday night, with most of southern and western WY falling below freezing.
Apart from the showers and storms, the main weather concern for the next 24 hours will be continued breezy east and east-northeast winds with the gradient between this wave and high pressure north of Florida. High pressure to the north of the waters and a developing wave over the Florida Straits is producing easterly winds, with a nocturnal wind surge expected to keep winds in the 15-20 knot range overnight, triggering Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Gradient winds will subside slightly during the day Friday, although scattered showers will produce locally higher winds, with the highest rain chances from around Tampa Bay south.
At the surface, circulation associated with the low can be seen in west central KS on satellite with a small break in the cumulus field along the frontal boundary, which is currently located along a line from Abilene to Seneca. Hodographs continue to show good veering in the low levels, so a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out with supercells; however, the initially weaker 0- 6 km shear makes this threat more questionable.
643 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Closed mid-level circulation depcited nicely on GOES-East satellite imagery this evening with the center of the low over far northern Minnesota. Main forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures for Friday along with increasing chances for showers southwest. Currently, closed upper level low moving slowly east out of the region early this afternoon, with wrap around low level moisture streaming across western and central North Dakota in the form of low level CU.
Bands of showers are beginning to slowly taper off this afternoon, and will continue to do so into the night as an upper ridge builds into the region. The upper ridge will build over the region Friday, and with the clearing and warmer air mass moving in aloft temperature will be rough 10 to 14 degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today.
Just a few showers dotting the radar this evening as the upper trough shifts onshore. Last remaining showers should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating then a drier day is in store for tomorrow as weak upper ridging moves into the region.
There remains a low chance that storms could develop over northwest OK this evening and move into northeast OK prior to 06z, however the higher storm chances will be after 09z as storms in KS eventually spread south through Friday morning. additional thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along/near a cold front currently positioned from Central Kansas to Southern Iowa. Thunderstorm chances through the day Friday will remain possible across the CWA as the main cold front holds off to the northwest of the CWA.
659 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 (This evening through Friday) Surface winds across western Oklahoma are south/southwest ahead of a cold front in the Panhandles.
659 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 The NAM, HRRR and HREF suggest the potential for isolated strong storms firing off the Black Hills or Pine Ridge this afternoon and this evening. The focus across the Black Hills is diurnal destabilization and across the Pine Ridge, it's convergence around the Black Hills in conjunction with a weak frontal boundary.
405 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east. Flow around this ridge was resulting in a southeast to south wind that was helping to increase moisture back across our region. A few sites may reach the mid 80s but the cloud cover and storm development should limit most sites to the lower 80s.
800 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A persistent ridge of high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to prevail across the forecast area through the short term. This ridge will relegate any significant precipitation chances away from the area over the next couple of days.
41 A persistent ridge of high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to prevail across the forecast area through the short term. This ridge will relegate any significant precipitation chances away from the area over the next couple of days.
Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east. Flow around this ridge was resulting in a southeast to south wind that was helping to increase moisture back across our region. A few sites may reach the mid 80s but the cloud cover and storm development should limit most sites to the lower 80s.
822 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Upper trof over the northern Plains has moved east of the forecaster area. On the surface, weak pressure gradient over the northern Plains with lee side trof becoming the focus for upslope flow, enhancing clouds and rain early Friday.
625 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted north into Iowa and then trails southwestward through north central Kansas into southwestern Kansas.
Closed mid-level circulation depicted nicely on GOES-East satellite imagery this evening with the center of the low over far northern Minnesota. Main forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures for Friday along with increasing chances for showers southwest. Currently, closed upper level low moving slowly east out of the region early this afternoon, with wrap around low level moisture streaming across western and central North Dakota in the form of low level CU.
Temperatures will persist into tomorrow, however, precipitation is expected to come back to the area with a short wave trough.
Separately a weather spotter reported a funnel cloud south of Cambridge, ID around 330 PM MDT which this office confirmed to be a cold-air funnel.
A weakening low pressure center will cross the northwest US and produce light showers across northern Nevada through tomorrow morning.
Prior discussion below: Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east. Flow around this ridge was resulting in a southeast to south wind that was helping to increase moisture back across our region. A few sites may reach the mid 80s but the cloud cover and storm development should limit most sites to the lower 80s.
Temperatures along the island chain are holding steady in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land are from the ENE at 20 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph. The widespread stratiform rain during the last several hours has significantly stabilized the atmosphere over the Keys, as shown by the low inversion in the 00Z Key West sounding. Very strong ENE winds appeared to peak around the Lower Keys during the late afternoon and early evening, when the Weatherflow station at Smith Shoal Light recorded sustained winds around 30 knots and frequent gusts of 35 to 40 knots for a few hours.
Then the focus shifts back to the north with the main cold front that will begin to slide through region late tonight. As for the severe threat with the cold front, strong 40 to 50 kt low level jet will maintain an influx of richer moisture from the southern Plains.
/issued 159 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ Weak upper ridge over the region will give way to an approaching trough that reaches the Rockies Friday.
A weak upper level ridge will briefly move over the area on Friday, providing the area with a quick break in precipitation in between systems.
1006 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 High pressure will prevail tonight.
525 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Satellite and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow aloft across the tri-state region today, with a closed low passing through the northern Plains. Convection is expected to develop along a lee trough in the afternoon and spread eastward into the region through the evening.
Today, high pressure is in place to our east and is situated off the coast off the Carolinas. This provides a southerly flow across our region as we are on the western periphery of the high. Tonight, slight chance POP remains in place across portions of southwest VA as a cold front sags southward out of the Ohio River Valley.
351 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Lingering clouds holding from Warroad to Bemidji at 08z and likely only a slow move east thru the early morning hours as upper level trough near Thunder Bay Ontario moves slowly east. Some cooler air north of the border in associated with a cold front north of Brandon and Winnipeg will try to slip south a bit so Langdon/Cando areas to be the coolest with around 60 or low 60s vs upper 60s elsewhere.
330 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 06Z surface data has the main cold front running from western Lake Superior into northeast Nebraska. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s ahead of the cold front with 30s and 40s behind the front. The light winds ahead of the approaching cold front in combination with the wet ground will allow fog to develop across the area through mid-morning. Tonight quiet and dry conditions are expected to continue as high pressure quickly moves through the area.
Models remain fairly consistent with developing/lifting upper low into northeast Texas during the day Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on northern periphery of upper low.
BDL A tropical system is still forecasted to develop this weekend off the Florida coast and will reinforce the high temperatures across the area this weekend.
1239 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 The NAM, HRRR and HREF suggest the potential for isolated strong storms firing off the Black Hills or Pine Ridge this afternoon and this evening. The focus across the Black Hills is diurnal destabilization and across the Pine Ridge, it's convergence around the Black Hills in conjunction with a weak frontal boundary.
Only change was to lower lows a tad over parts of western North Dakota, where a few locations have dipped into the lower 30s. Closed mid-level circulation depicted nicely on GOES-East satellite imagery this evening with the center of the low over far northern Minnesota. Main forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures for Friday along with increasing chances for showers southwest. Currently, closed upper level low moving slowly east out of the region early this afternoon, with wrap around low level moisture streaming across western and central North Dakota in the form of low level CU. Ridge builds across the region behind the departing wave, bringing warmer temperatures to start the week.
251 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Bulk of area overnight was between convective complex to the south and approach of short wave and associated cold front from the northwest.
Meanwhile, southerly winds on the backside of high pressure is advecting low level moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Short term Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate the aforementioned line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to gradually weaken as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Short term models indicate an upper level low will develop over Texas and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The 700-850 mb warm front continues to lift north and is forecast to stall out roughly from Elkhart to Great Bend by this afternoon. Temperatures today will be tricky as clouds look to hold in place along and north of the warm front along with cooler 850 mb temperatures. Highs in the low 70s should be a good bet with the clouds in place and mid to upper 70s where some sunshine can peak out. Otherwise there should be decreasing clouds in the western zones and a warmer airmass moving in from the west which should help to warm us into the upper 70s to low 80s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 61 86 63 87 / 0 0 20 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 60 85 62 87 / 0 10 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 60 85 61 87 / 10 10 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 56 82 58 84 / 0 10 30 10 30.
1128 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 (This evening through Friday) Surface winds across western Oklahoma are south/southwest ahead of a cold front in the Panhandles.
High pressure continues to ridge across the area from the mid- west Atlantic as an area of low pressure continues to gradually develop over Cuba/FL Straits. Moisture from this system will lift over the area later today bring scattered to numerous rain chances across much of the area, but the highest chances south of I- 4. Those rain chances shift inland and drop to generally 20-30 percent for Friday night through Saturday as the low pressure system lifts to the N/NE across the northern Bahamas and into the Atlantic, pulling some drier air down over the area on the back side of the system.
The line is being pushed by a cold front that's going to remain mostly stationary, but Hi-res models have the line trying to bow towards the Ohio Valley near daybreak. The cloud cover and southern flow will help keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s by Saturday morning. :: The Weekend :: An east-west front draped along the Ohio River Saturday will lift north Saturday night in response to low pressure developing over the Midwest.
However, with low level ridge axis over eastern SD, soundings remain rather dry below 800mb, so may be tough to get much more than sprinkles into areas east of the James River Valley before sunset. Thus expect our coolest highs in the mid 60s in our far west, while southeast areas which should see more sunshine climb into the lower 70s. Friday night through Saturday night will be the primary focus during the mid-long range, as digging mid-upper level trough slides across the region. Broad mid-upper trough slides across our forecast area during the day Saturday, and beginning to see signals of split energy. Cloud cover should still be quite abundant, however, and this along with the showers will hold temperatures in the lower-mid 60s at best for most areas.
204 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Bulk of area overnight was between convective complex to the south and approach of short wave and associated cold front from the northwest.
An upper ridge is expected to move in on Saturday with mainly dry weather.
Friday will see a pleasant day with high pressure building across the region. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s during the day. Lows tomorrow night will hold in the lower to mid 50s south.
904 PM PDT Thu May 14 2020 High pressure will result in gradual warming through Saturday.
By Saturday as a low situated over central Texas, a southeastward moving cold front will increase rain and thunderstorm potential to the Mid-South.
1219 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted north into Iowa and then trails southwestward through north central Kansas into southwestern Kansas.
/issued 159 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ Weak upper ridge over the region will give way to an approaching trough that reaches the Rockies Friday. A high pressure ridge builds in Saturday behind that.
The 700-850 mb warm front continues to lift north and is forecast to stall out roughly from Elkhart to Great Bend by this afternoon. Temperatures today will be tricky as clouds look to hold in place along and north of the warm front along with cooler 850 mb temperatures. Highs in the low 70s should be a good bet with the clouds in place and mid to upper 70s where some sunshine can peak out. The pattern of nightly MCS activity affecting portions of western and southern Kansas will come to an end Saturday Night as we see a shift in the large scale pattern toward more stable high pressure in the lower troposphere. A large upper level ridge will also be expanding across the Southern/Central Rockies and adjacent Western Plains.
412 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes today bringing a front into the Ohio Valley.
The region will remain under weak 500mb ridging, with lingering chances for light precipitation across southwestern Missouri through the day. After sunset, thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east in response to the western trough digging eastward off the front range.
1108 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Satellite and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow aloft across the tri-state region today, with a closed low passing through the northern Plains. Convection is expected to develop along a lee trough in the afternoon and spread eastward into the region through the evening. A ridge moves into the central U.
From roughly I-90 and points south towards KSUX and KSLB there just appears to be a little too much dry air in the lower levels to allow precipitation. So, as the main upper level low rotates into the area Saturday afternoon and night the band of rain to the north will continue to some extent and possibly fill in to the south as weak instability hints at a shower potential for much of the area. A more steady rain could work into parts of northwest IA if the warm front/instability aloft can creep far enough north. Any time an upper low spreads onto the Plains in May always some concern for funnel clouds with very low LFC's and generally some weak to moderate shear.
A broad area of low pressure along a stationary front in the Straits of Florida early this morning, will slowly begin to move slowly northeastward to offshore of the extreme Southeast coast of the Florida Peninsula by Saturday morning. This lower pressure is expected to develop into a tropical system as it moves beyond the Northwest Bahamas on Saturday, and then offshore of the entire Sunshine State for the balance of this weekend.
131 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020 High pressure will prevail tonight.
While widespread precip is not expected through the afternoon and evening, additional widely scattered showers and storms are possible along a cold front that is slowly sagging across the region.
Low amplitude ridging will prevail aloft over the Tri-State region. Modest easterly flow will push the Atlantic seabreeze inland early this afternoon, though the low-level moisture should get scoured out as the boundary moves further inland where mixing will have tapped into the deep layer dry air. Otherwise, highs will climb to near 90 degrees this afternoon and dip back into the lower 60s once again tonight.
A shield of cirrus clouds are looking to move into the area tomorrow, potentially keeping temperatures a little cooler tomorrow.
306 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Weak high pressure is in place over our area and will persist through Saturday. Saturday, a low pressure system is expected to move toward our area from the Western US.
High temperatures should reach the l-m80s in valleys and u70s-a80 atop the higher plateau areas. The upper low will start to meander from east TX into AR Saturday night.