Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For 12z Aviation discussion below The warm front of recent interest stretches from southeastern South Dakota across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Today will be warmer given the location of the front (with much of the area in the warm sector), and considering convection will diminish in time to allow for recovery of the airmass. By evening, expect thunderstorms to fire along and ahead of the cold front, roughly along I-35 and eastward into WI. Wednesday will be turning cooler as a frontal boundary moves across the area.
942 AM MST Tue May 16 2017 A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert Southwest this week, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. 12Z 500 mb upper analysis showed the axis of the first low pressure system situated near the California/Arizona border. An area of ascent exists east of the trough axis, with current satellite imagery illustrating the greatest cloud cover in that region. This trough will continue to shift eastward pretty quickly, becoming situated across the central plains by early tomorrow morning. A couple of unseasonably cool weather systems will deepen into AZ this week to reinforce a cooler airmass that has provided pleasantly cool below normal temperatures.
Primary aviation issue today will be another round of elevated srly winds as the gradient tightens slightly with low pressure moving into the Plains. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be over the northern gulf coast today while an upper level trough with embedded short waves moves across the west half of the country. Today the weather will remain dry and warm with the ridge in control, however this ridge will shift east through tonight. The second in a series of short waves will move into the plains Wednesday while the ridge moves into the Atlantic.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 64 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 63 88 66 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 58 86 62 / 10 0 0 10.
High pressure will continue to exert itself over the southeastern CONUS today helping temperatures to climb into the low 90s in several spots and mid to upper 80s for most. High pressure is situated to the east with a southerly flow keeping a warming in trend across Middle Tennessee.
East to southeast flow around high pressure off the southeast U. Criteria for Red Flag Warning in Levy county should be met today as relative humidity values are expected to dip into the lower to mid 30s here with durations below 35 percent up to 5 hours and ERC value of 37.
High pressure north of the state will become established across the western Atlc.
TFJ Northeast Montana will be in southwest flow aloft today and tonight as an upper low currently over British Columbia moves southeast across the Pacific NW today and tonight. However, precipitation associated the upper low will be moving into West and Central Montana during the day. An upper ridge will develop along the MT/Canada border which will keep most of NE Montana dry.
946 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will bring milder weather today.
A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert Southwest this week, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. A couple of unseasonably cool weather systems will deepen into AZ this week to reinforce a cooler airmass that has provided pleasantly cool below normal temperatures.
935 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure will keep the region unseasonably warm and dry through the weekend.
453 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure continued to dominate the weather pattern today acrs the Northwest gulf today.
Two distinct areas of low stratus were invading the forecast area this evening, one from the Gulf Coast region under the low level ridge axis and the other from SC funneling southward.
Otherwise, look for more mid clouds but mostly high clouds to stream into the region ahead of an upper level low ejecting across Baja into northern Mexico.
A cold low pressure system offshore will move across the region tonight. Look for high pressure aloft to move over the area on Sunday and then gradually strengthen during much of the upcoming week. There were more showers offshore, so expect these to move inland with the upper level trof tonight. The lower boundary layer is likely not warm enough to support thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, the cold low pressure system offshore will move across the region tonight. By late Sunday morning, the upper level trough will be over the Great Basin. An upper level ridge (initially, a bit dirty) will follow on its heels for a general drying trend during the day Sunday.
An upper level trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pac NW will cause a weak upper level ridge to push across the region tonight through Sunday. 925 and 850 mb temps associated with the ridge are between 1.
412 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2017 Slight upper ridging covers much of the western CONUS, as an upper low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Southwest flow will increase Sunday as the incoming trough pushes the ridge eastward. The upper trough will cross the Rockies Sunday night, and a cold front will begin moving through the region.
Otherwise we expect fair and warm weather through this evening Low temperatures will reach the lower to mid 50s (about 5 to 10 F above average).
Pleasant and mild weather across the lower Ohio Valley at this hour. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 30s, with a few upper 20s up in the Kentucky Bluegrass. 850mb/700mb temperature are slightly warmer Sunday, so plan on temperatures being a few degrees warmer tomorrow than what we're observing today.
A weakening zonal flow aloft and much drier air in the lower/mid levels will contribute to a dry period across western Kansas through late Sunday afternoon. This will draw slightly warmer air into western Kansas and keep lows from dropping below the 30s(F). A developing lee side trough will strengthen across eastern Colorado Sunday resulting in a stronger southerly flow across the region, and pushing H85 temperatures well up into the teens(C). Expect to see highs up into the mid to upper 60s(F) across central Kansas to the lower to mid 70s(F) in southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon.
435 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 Mild pattern setting up for tonight into Sunday as large upper level trough works into the Pacific Northwest and increasing southerly flow develops ahead of this disturbance across the plains. Expect a fair amount of high clouds, and this combined with increasing southerly winds, should keep elevate locations a bit warmer than more sheltered sites.
Otherwise, the higher dewpoints and increasing clouds will keep temperatures well into the 50s for tonight's lows. /Issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ /Sunday through Saturday/ An upper level low that was over the northern Mexican state of Sonora as of 2 PM, will move east and open up tonight as it moves into Texas Sunday morning. Another upper level low can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery over Pacific Ocean west of Washington. This low is starting to open up and will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight and across the Rockies Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Clouds will increase through the night as an upper level trough and associated cold front in south central Canada begins shifting south. Highs will be in the lower 30s north.
High clouds will increase overnight and clouds thicken up Sunday ahead of the next stronger 500 mb trough that will be moving into the northern/central Rockies. Highs on Sunday a few degrees cooler than Saturday's.
441 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2017 Benign weather under westerly flow aloft today will shift to southwesterly by Sunday in advance of a vigorous upper level trough moving inland over the Pac NW coast. Timing of the trough axis oriented NE-SW, bisecting the West Slope by late Sunday night, is in good agreement among the models. Moisture will be increasing and orographic showers are possible by late in the day over the higher terrain and northeast UT/northwest CO closer to the approaching front. The cold front looks to move quickly through the area NW to SE beginning around sunset in northeast Utah. Snow levels will initially be over 8000 feet, but will crash to the valley bottoms with the passage of the cold front.
Warm front draped across the Gulf from near CRP to 100 mi south of New Orleans. The warm front should continue to drift back north overnight and should move into PSX/Matagorda Bay area around 11-14z with increasingly more moist air pooling along the boundary over SETX. /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ At 2 PM, high pressure was over the eastern US and a weak trough of low pressure extended from central OK into west central Texas.
918 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 Weak high pressure will remain across central and southeast Illinois through the night. High pressure is dominating the weather map this afternoon, centered in the Plains as weak waves ripple along the flow aloft through the Great Lakes. However, the ridge axis is still to the east and will be moving over the region tonight. Weaker winds under the ridge should allow for some fairly efficient radiational cooling. but starting a little warmer than previously forecast as well with todays highs.
Pacific storm along the northwest coast at 8 PM MST will send a strong cold front through our area early Sunday morning with enhanced rain and snow, especially over northern areas, i. Widespread snow showers Sunday mainly in the higher terrain.
653 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 VFR conditions under high pressure. /issued 414 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017/ Weak high pressure aloft continues to dominate the weather pattern this afternoon, maintaining dry and pleasant weather over South Florida.
With clearing skies, temperatures will be cooler tonight than last night ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. A deep-layer ridge will be in place on Sunday, keeping conditions dry and temperatures above normal. A good chunk of the forecast area may have afternoon highs in the lower 70s.
Weak high pressure ridge will settle over central Florida tonight and produce near calm winds. A weak ridge axis will shift south over our waters ahead of a weak frontal boundary tonight.
However, the lower level wind speeds (850 mb and below) will be rather light, and near calm at the surface, and with a large portion of the CWA seeing at least some precip resulting in a damp ground, and all of this will culminate in stratus and fog formation overnight, most notably across the south and east.
Fog should clear after daybreak, making way for another warm day, with highs in the low 80s. Onshore flow will strengthen on Sunday night as the next low pressure system deepens to the northwest of the region.
The low level moist layer over South Central TX deepens rapidly tonight while model soundings forecast a dry layer aloft to maintain capping to limit rain potential to mostly a slight chance through daybreak Sunday.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Sunday: Weak high pressure will maintain a stagnant airmass over the ArkLaMiss in the near term. The low sun angle this time of the year has made the erosion of morning stratus a slow process, and boundary layer moisture remains relatively high as a result. With crossover temperatures in the lower 50s and overnight lows expected to drop well into the 40s, fog is expected to redevelop in a similar area as last night. Otherwise, expect temperatures to rebound into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon once stratus clears out.
Otherwise, look for more mid clouds but mostly high clouds to stream into the region ahead of an upper level low ejecting across Baja into northern Mexico. /issued 320 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ Water vapor continues to show a flat dirty ridge over the region this afternoon. The cloud cover should be on the increase tonight and that combined with higher dew point values will result in a warmer night tonight. Although we should still be under the influence of the ridge on Sunday, models are showing more cloud cover with the southwesterly flow aloft as well as hinting that a few showers could develop.
A cold front will bring snow and wind to the region on Sunday.
Surface lee-side trof currently over eastern New Mexico will deepen during the day on Sunday as it moves into western part of forecast area. /Issued 252 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ The upper level closed low is currently over the Baja Peninsula. Meanwhile, a low pressure trough will move into the Pacific northwest.
Snow has begun to fall west of the Continental Divide this evening, with KGTF 00z sounding depicting some dry air in the lowest levels. - Moldan An upper level trof of low pressure will approach the region from the west tonight and gradually move through the region on Sunday.
/issued 241 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ The closed upper low over Baja California will open up as it moves east and will pass over the South Plains as an open wave Sunday. Southwest flow has brought moisture from this low to the region in the form of low clouds, which have kept temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon. While moisture will increase and dewpoints will reach the low 50s Sunday afternoon, most of the energy with the wave will stay to our south with only some sprinkles possible for the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
The culprit is an mid/upper low over Sonora Mexico. The upper system will move rapidly east and weaken to an open trough.
A low pressure system will bring strong winds and increased high clouds to the region on Sunday. The associated cold front will sweep across the Great Basin and Mojave Desert bringing the coldest weather the area has experienced this season.
Proton 6pm update: Upper low off the Washington/Oregon coast will continue to push Pacific moisture into the region overnight. A warm front looks to then set up with a 700 mb low moving east across the central zones. Dry slot and warmer temperatures will likely hamper snow amounts from Glasgow east and points south. NW flow will take over as trough really digs to our east.
Dry, Warmer, Increasing Winds. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible over the higher terrain toward morning. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible in the mountains with gusts to 30 mph or so at the lower elevations.
1030 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 Currently - High pressure to our north is producing gentle to moderate winds across the Keys, and somewhat higher over the Florida Straits. Short Term Update - High pressure will remain to our north tonight, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes. Temperatures will settle a few degrees further into the lower 70s. Moderate northeast to east breezes will persist on Keys waters through the overnight period due to high pressure to our north.
The fast low-amplitude flow that has been in place across the northern CONUS and southern Canada the last few days will undergo significant amplification the next several days as strong ridging develops near the West Coast. A deep trough will develop downstream over central and eastern North America.
Mid and high cloud cover will increase through the night as the upper low in northern Mexico edges closer to the Southern Plains region bringing upper level moisture with it. /Issued 359 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ We will see two more days of unseasonable warmth before much cooler temperatures move into the area.
Cold front is expected to move through area on Sunday bringing in a much colder airmass to the region. Fog was a little slower to burn off in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) this morning as a thickening Cirrus cloud shield moves in in advance of an approaching cold front to the north. Very little deep moisture is associated with the cold front and we are only carrying some showers in the Sierra near Yosemite later tonight into Sunday morning in favorable upslope areas. There will be enough mixing on Sunday night to keep temps mostly above freezing in the SJV.
930 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 An upper level disturbance will cross the area overnight with high pressure returning on Sunday.
Southerly winds are expected to develop across the entire area Sunday as lee troughing begins to develop in response to approaching upper wave.
A weak upper ridge will move across southern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon as the right entrance region of the jet increases the upper divergence Sunday afternoon.
KY Mesonet data showing that we're seeing a bit of a ridge/valley split going on with some valley spots in the lower 30s, and ridge tops still in the upper 40s to near 50. Have adjusted hourly T/Td grids to try to capture the ridge/valley split a little better. Pleasant and mild weather across the lower Ohio Valley at this hour. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 30s, with a few upper 20s up in the Kentucky Bluegrass. 850mb/700mb temperature are slightly warmer Sunday, so plan on temperatures being a few degrees warmer tomorrow than what we're observing today.
/Issued 359 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ We will see two more days of unseasonable warmth before much cooler temperatures move into the area.
South to southwest winds will increase some Sunday as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to low pressure deepening across western South Dakota.
/issued 453 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017/ High pressure continued to dominate the weather pattern today acrs the Northwest gulf today.
855 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure to the north will keep light winds across the area and allow for the chance for overnight fog mainly north of I-4. High pressure will be centered to the north for the next few days keeping conditions light.
An upper level trof of low pressure will approach the region from the west tonight and gradually move through the region on Sunday.
600 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure is dominating the weather map this afternoon, centered in the Plains as weak waves ripple along the flow aloft through the Great Lakes. However, the ridge axis is still to the east and will be moving over the region tonight. Weaker winds under the ridge should allow for some fairly efficient radiational cooling. but starting a little warmer than previously forecast as well with todays highs.
515 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2017 Weak low level flow due to high pressure will continue through tonight. This low level flow will push temperatures back into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s.
Sunday will be another above normal day and one of the last pleasant days before a cold front moves through and the pattern shifts to cooler weather.
6pm update: Upper low off the Washington/Oregon coast will continue to push Pacific moisture into the region overnight. A warm front looks to then set up with a 700 mb low moving east across the central zones. Dry slot and warmer temperatures will likely hamper snow amounts from Glasgow east and points south. NW flow will take over as trough really digs to our east.
/DL/ Tonight through Sunday: Weak high pressure will maintain a stagnant airmass over the ArkLaMiss in the near term. The low sun angle this time of the year has made the erosion of morning stratus a slow process, and boundary layer moisture remains relatively high as a result. With crossover temperatures in the lower 50s and overnight lows expected to drop well into the 40s, fog is expected to redevelop in a similar area as last night. Otherwise, expect temperatures to rebound into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon once stratus clears out.
Looking upstream, believe we're in for another bout of similar conditions into Sunday, though temps will still remain well on the mild side with 925mb temps about 1C warmer than today supporting highs nearing 50-53 for many areas, slightly cooler far north of course.
645 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High pressure will keep the region unseasonably warm and dry through the weekend.
More high clouds will stream east over the Dakotas associated with some higher level Pacific moisture as the upper level trough moves ashore over the northwest.
1113 AM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Latest analysis shows the western CONUS upper ridge building eastward over the forecast area for today. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the midwest with a weakly defined low pressure trough to the east of the Rockies resulting in relatively light easterly sfc winds over the forecast area today. This will bring increasing low level moisture into the region this morning with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s on the South Dakota plains and in the lower to mid 50s over northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Diurnal heating, combined with the low level moisture will result in a N-S band of SBCAPE ranging from 1000-2000J/KG over wrn SD this afternoon, with much lower values over nern WY.
High pressure will then build over the western Atlantic, and provide a warm and humid flow of air through most of the week.
Temperatures early this afternoon were in the the upper 70s to the lower 80s with low humidity. Lows will once again drop into the middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across southeastern Kansas and the western Ozarks tonight. Monday will warm into the lower to middle 80s as a cooler air mass remains over the region.
We will see a diurnal increase in cloud cover again on Monday, with light southerly winds and highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak trough may generate a isolated-widely scattered showers along/east of Interstate 35 during the afternoon.
Upper level trough will reside over the region through tonight. Upper level trough axis will move south of our forecast area Monday. Cold front currently resides across the southern tier counties of the JAX CWA over north central Florida where a rain currently resides mainly south of SR16.
1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure centered over central Illinois is providing sunny and cool conditions this morning. Another nice summer day expected for central and southeast IL as 1023 mb high pressure will be anchored over northern IL and southern WI through tonight. Highs yesterday were in the upper 70s to around 80F and will be a few degrees warmer today, in the lower 80s with ne winds around 10 mph or less. Lows tonight in the lower 60s with light winds expected.
Morning lows should be in the low to middle 60s with a light Northerly breeze. Temperatures will trend warmer.
631 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable weather through the start of the work week.
Sfc analysis placed the high pressure center near the Quad Cities, which is maintaining a northeast feed of drier air. Mid-level water vapor imagery showed very dry air aloft as well, downstream of the upper ridge axis. Clear skies are expected tonight, with lows dropping into the low/mid 60s. A steady increase in 1000-850 mb thickness should result in highs 2-4 F warmer tomorrow, in the 83-88 degree range.
Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected. A longwave ridge of high pressure continues over our region and is expected to persist for at least the next several days. Expect a similar pattern for Monday with possibly slightly more coverage of showers/thunderstorms, at least over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
There maybe some high clouds to stream in from the High Plains towards Monday morning from dieing convection, but was confident enough to lower temps a 2-3 degrees from previous forecast.
Northwest flow aloft prevails over the region today, with the center of the upper level ridge center over the heart of TX, to the west of an unusually deep trough carved out over the eastern CONUS. A small PV max is lifting north over central NM around the western side of the ridge. At the surface, a large anticyclone was centered over northern IL. The cold front that has brought the relatively cooler and drier air into the region stretches from the Florida peninsula back into southern TX.
203 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable weather through the start of the work week.
Broad upper ridging across Western 2/3 U. Similarly, with temps, now in the lower to mid 80s, finding their way back closer to climo norms (upper 80s highs) by the end of the period.