Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the upper levels, a 500mb trough was located over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a cold front pushing through the Panhandle should continue southward and become diffuse by Tuesday afternoon. Chances for rain will increase Tuesday morning and through the day as the upper trough approaches and PWATs increase above 2. As the upper level low approaches from the west/northwest, increasing large-scale lift, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area, especially for the eastern half of the CWA. Although we will lose heating, MLCape values will still linger near the 1000J/kg range for the evening hours, combining with 0-6km shear values from 30 to 40 knots, and a weak cold frontal boundary, allowing for the possibility that some of the storms could continue to be strong to severe into the evening hours Tuesday.
1203 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Clearing skies overnight have allowed temperatures to decrease rapidly behind the cold front. Colder air aloft has mixed down to the surface in areas across the higher terrain in addition to the radiative cooling aspect. Overall temperatures should stay cool under a quickly moving dome of high pressure and increasing cloudiness. Coupled with a 60-70 knot jet stream max, the inverted-V may create a wet microburst or two across the higher terrain.
119 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 High pressure will build across the region into Tuesday.
Behind the cold front we will see cooler temperatures to end August and begin the month of September and climatological fall.
1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Showers and isolated thunder continue this morning behind the passing cold front, with some stratus as well. High pressure will work into the area from the west and slowly slide to the east through the day today, keeping winds mostly light and variable. Expect plenty of sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s and low humidity (thanks again to the aforementioned cold front and northwesterly flow). Otherwise, expect lows tonight in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure lingers to the east of the region on Tuesday, with a bit breezier conditions thanks to better mixing and a bit of an increasing pressure gradient.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal, with breezy conditions near the Cascades and western basin. On the backside of the trough digging through the northern Rockies, morning rain showers have ended in eastern Washington and northern Idaho.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 89 74 91 73 / 50 30 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 88 73 89 73 / 40 20 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 72 89 71 / 30 20 40 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 69 86 69 / 30 20 30 40 30.
At 3 PM, skies were mostly clear, winds were out of the north, and temperatures were in the mid 70s behind yesterdays cold front. Meanwhile a couple elevated thunderstorms or showers will be possible south of Interstate 80 between midnight tonight and noon Tuesday (associated with trough near 850 mb).
Some northerly flow aloft is occurring over Central CA mainly due to an upper-level trough and associated cold front over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the weak upper-level low pressure system has moved southwestward to around 30N/124W or off the coast of northern Baja California and will continue to move further offshore. Current temperatures are about a couple of degrees warmer, compared to 24 hours ago.
The area with the highest probability for a few strong storms and heavy rainfall will exist along/south of I-70.
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 An cold front moving into west central Illinois Monday evening, and then stalling in central Illinois Tuesday will bring the potential for some much needed rainfall. Temperatures will also be cooler with highs mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the region the next couple of days. The latest surface analysis indicated a cold front approaching the MS River valley at 18z. A warm front is also apparent from about Macomb to Effingham with lower 70 dew points and low clouds. The cold front is expected to come to a halt near the I-55 corridor by Tuesday morning as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. For midweek, a nearly stationary boundary between I-72 and I-70 will result in continued chances for showers/t-storms mainly south of the front in the warmer, more humid sector.
A cold front that slowly advanced southeast this morning into northern Missouri behind the MCS will stall across north-central Missouri and west-central Illinois this evening.
Similar to yesterday, the highest moisture values are from around Tampa Bay northward, so generally expect the greatest storm coverage for these locations as well as inland areas as onshore flow continues.
203 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Have one upper trough exiting the Northern Plains today as a stronger trough swings down across ID into WY. By tomorrow morning this 2nd trough will develop a closed low and move down into CO and into NM later in the day.
Mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected midweek with weaker forcing and upper ridging. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. A ridge off the southeast U. The GFS is a little weaker than the ECMWF with ridging and appears to advect more moisture into the area along with some weak short wave forcing.
254 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues to build south into the central Plains. With the ridge axis nosing into the CWA, eastern areas are seeing east/northeast winds with a transition to east/southeast for western locales. Cooler airmass remains in place this afternoon as well, with temps currently in the 70s as of 200 pm MDT. GFS) continue an inconsistent stance as to the movement/ placement of this precip along with an upper trough/low that will swing through the Rockies tonight that may help to enhance any precip going into late tonight/Tuesday. The upper low swings too far south of the CWA to enhance most locales, so will have precip taper from NW to SE thru Ttuesday morning.
Dry mid levels combined with the pressure gradient near the trough dropping down from North Dakota will result in westerly breezes, especially across northern SD on Tuesday. The warmer temps and continued dry conditions will drop RH into the low 20s west of the James Valley Tuesday afternoon.
A Red Flag Warning was issued for FWZ 303 until 8 PM, but we may be able to cancel this early, depending on when the cooler air finally filters in aloft behind the wave.
High pressure is expected to move into the area for the latter part of the week. Otherwise, model data suggest a cold front will settle into the far northwest zones towards daybreak Tuesday.
906 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Update - Few showers tonight along a weakening front - Showers/Storms with wave of low pressure Tues Afternoon/Night - Potent cold front to sweep through Thurs/Thurs Night (Windy) - Stronger cold front poised to move through Sun/Mon (Colder) The POPs were downplayed somewhat this evening. The precipitation in the higher resolution models looks to be quite light and we are expecting most locations through midday on Tuesday to range from completely dry to maybe a tenth of an inch in spots. -- Showers/Storms with wave of low pressure Tues Afternoon/Night -- A wave of low pressure is forecast to move up the stalled boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE values rise to 1000-2000 j/kg so can envision some embedded convection and the high resolution models support this.
The clouds in central Idaho will decrease overnight as a drier northerly flow aloft follows an exiting upper trough. An upper ridge off the west coast will start to build into our area on Tuesday resulting in mostly clear skies, light winds, and warmer temperatures.
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Skies this afternoon have been partly to mostly sunny following the passage of a cold front this morning. Winds this afternoon have been gusty as a result of an increased pressure gradient between low pressure in Ontario and high pressure over southwest MN. A brief break in these gusty winds is expected tonight, as low pressure over Ontario moves eastward and high pressure remains over southern MN. Mostly sunny skies continue tomorrow, as high pressure remains just south of the CWA. Cloud cover increases in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
722 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Upper level troughing with a passing disturbance has brought cooler temperatures over Carbon County early this evening along with light rain showers. A Red Flag Warning was issued for FWZ 303 until 8 PM, but we may be able to cancel this early, depending on when the cooler air finally filters in aloft behind the wave.
623 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 A cold front moving into west central Illinois Monday evening, and then stalling in central Illinois Tuesday will bring the potential for some much needed rainfall. Temperatures will also be cooler with highs mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the region the next couple of days. The latest surface analysis indicated a cold front approaching the MS River valley at 18z. A warm front is also apparent from about Macomb to Effingham with lower 70 dew points and low clouds. The cold front is expected to come to a halt near the I-55 corridor by Tuesday morning as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. For midweek, a nearly stationary boundary between I-72 and I-70 will result in continued chances for showers/t-storms mainly south of the front in the warmer, more humid sector.
After a rather gloomy start to the last day of meteorological summer, low clouds have gradually been eroding from south to north across the forecast area as a warm front slowly lifts northward towards the Ohio River. As we move into Tuesday, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to become more southwesterly as an upper level low develops and digs southward over the Four Corners region. For the rest of the work week we'll sit under broad southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper trough moving very slowly across the Plains. Occasional disturbances ejecting out of the trough will help to initiate waves of showers and thunderstorms as they interact with a warm and humid atmosphere over the southeastern United States each day.
The tricky part of the forecast occurs tonight as the well- advertised cold front passes north to south through the region. At any rate, the higher elevations along the Divide (particularly in central Colorado) will see the highest rainfall accumulations (and maybe some very isolated snowfall near the highest peaks). Precipitation chances linger in the San Juans through Tuesday afternoon, thanks to the influence of the trough, before we enter another dry period. We'll keep the cool temperatures around through the day on Tuesday before A large area of high pressure sets up over the western U.
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Skies this afternoon have been partly to mostly sunny following the passage of a cold front this morning. Winds this afternoon have been gusty as a result of an increased pressure gradient between low pressure in Ontario and high pressure over southwest MN. A brief break in these gusty winds is expected tonight, as low pressure over Ontario moves eastward and high pressure remains over southern MN. Mostly sunny skies continue tomorrow, as high pressure remains just south of the CWA. Cloud cover increases in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Much drier air was moving into the state as evidenced by the low 70 dewpoints near the boundary while northwest Iowa had dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s with an area of high pressure arriving. The area of high pressure will move east overnight with the primary influence over the northern 2/3rds of Iowa. Tuesday will be cool with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Low temperatures will drop to the lower to mid 70s.
A cold front will push down through southern Nevada tonight and Tuesday, bringing breezy north winds and noticeably cooler temperatures.
756 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected mid-week with weaker forcing and upper ridging.
1018 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 A fractured ridge axis stretches west across Florida Keys. The available boundaries for convective initiation have all flushed to the southwest of the Lower Keys, so forecast reasoning is sound.
409 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Skies this afternoon have been partly to mostly sunny following the passage of a cold front this morning. Winds this afternoon have been gusty as a result of an increased pressure gradient between low pressure in Ontario and high pressure over southwest MN. A brief break in these gusty winds is expected tonight, as low pressure over Ontario moves eastward and high pressure remains over southern MN. Mostly sunny skies continue tomorrow, as high pressure remains just south of the CWA. Cloud cover increases in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
This clearing is due to a ridge of high pressure that will be increasing in strength throughout the week.
Winds remain on the breezy side through the evening as cooler air pools in from the north. High pressure starts to build in on Tuesday, and keeps weather mostly quiet through the week.
/issued 203 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020/ Have one upper trough exiting the Northern Plains today as a stronger trough swings down across ID into WY. By tomorrow morning this 2nd trough will develop a closed low and move down into CO and into NM later in the day.
Another cool night expected with lows near 60 Basin, 40s mid elevations and near freezing on volcanic peaks and elevated valleys such as Seneca region. much advertised warming and drying pattern commences as a NW to SE oriented ridge begins to encroach into the area with rising heights and weakening flow aloft pulling westward. Some breeziness may still exist in Kittitas Valley and along I-90 where winds aloft will be a bit more pronounced than in OR closer to ridge center.
High pressure will hold across southern Florida through Tuesday, with westerly winds persisting.
Mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected midweek with weaker forcing and upper ridging.
1051 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Developing Bermuda high pressure will aid in a return to summerlike heat and humidity this week.
314 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Much cooler air has moved into the region as temperatures at 2 pm were only in the lower to mid 70s with 60s on the divides. A few showers with isold ltg flashes were noted over most of the higher terrain. Temps tonight will fall below freezing above treeline in the mtns, and even KLXV will be near freezing. Expect temps to be the same or a tad warmer over the plains while the valleys will be 5 to 8F cooler.
510 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues to build south into the central Plains. With the ridge axis nosing into the CWA, eastern areas are seeing east/northeast winds with a transition to east/southeast for western locales. Cooler airmass remains in place this afternoon as well, with temps currently in the 70s as of 200 pm MDT. GFS) continue an inconsistent stance as to the movement/ placement of this precip along with an upper trough/low that will swing through the Rockies tonight that may help to enhance any precip going into late tonight/Tuesday. The upper low swings too far south of the CWA to enhance most locales, so will have precip taper from NW to SE thru Tuesday morning.
With the exception of the Delta Breeze, lighter winds are expected for the rest of the week due to the influence of high pressure.
As the upper ridge brings height rises temperaturesare increasing. The thermal trough remains at the coast with gusty northeast winds on the southern coastal ranges, but winds will be a little lighter, and humidities a little higher.
1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Skies this afternoon have been partly to mostly sunny following the passage of a cold front this morning. Winds this afternoon have been gusty as a result of an increased pressure gradient between low pressure in Ontario and high pressure over southwest MN. A brief break in these gusty winds is expected tonight, as low pressure over Ontario moves eastward and high pressure remains over southern MN. Mostly sunny skies continue tomorrow, as high pressure remains just south of the CWA. Cloud cover increases in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
West of the ridge axis, an MCS was in progress across OK lifting northeast. Thankfully, with the minor 5h ridge shifting east, this may squelch what would be more prolific convection.
1100 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure continues to build south into the central Plains. With the ridge axis nosing into the CWA, eastern areas are seeing east/northeast winds with a transition to east/southeast for western locales. Cooler airmass remains in place this afternoon as well, with temps currently in the 70s as of 200 pm MDT. GFS) continue an inconsistent stance as to the movement/ placement of this precip along with an upper trough/low that will swing through the Rockies tonight that may help to enhance any precip going into late tonight/Tuesday. The upper low swings too far south of the CWA to enhance most locales, so will have precip taper from NW to SE thru Tuesday morning.
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Very little to discuss in the short term, with the main issue becoming the heat during the afternoon hours as high pressure builds into the area. Suppressed cloud cover and associated shower and thunderstorm activity will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s across the area.
146 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected mid-week with weaker forcing and upper ridging. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
1147 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Upper level troughing with a passing disturbance has brought cooler temperatures over Carbon County early this evening along with light rain showers. A Red Flag Warning was issued for FWZ 303 until 8 PM, but we may be able to cancel this early, depending on when the cooler air finally filters in aloft behind the wave.
252 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Mid and high clouds are evident on satellite across much of the area this morning, as mid/high level moisture stream northeast ahead of a positively tilted upper trough extending from northern Minnesota southwest into the central Rockies.
202 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Developing Bermuda high pressure will aid in a return to summerlike heat and humidity this week.
A frost advisory continues for portions of the upper Snake Plain where widespread agriculture is threatened by temps in the low to mid 30s.
1019 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Just about all the remaining evening showers have dissipated, so we should be looking at a dry period from now through at least the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the Gulf coast region. With the absence of the typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms, the late morning and afternoon cloud cover will also be low which will lead to hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s and continued high humidity levels/dewpoint temperatures. High pressure is expected to really suppress cloud cover Tuesday afternoon and very little or no SHRA/TSRA are expected to impact the TAF airports.
1144 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Much cooler air has moved into the region as temperatures at 2 pm were only in the lower to mid 70s with 60s on the divides. A few showers with isold ltg flashes were noted over most of the higher terrain. Temps tonight will fall below freezing above treeline in the mtns, and even KLXV will be near freezing. Expect temps to be the same or a tad warmer over the plains while the valleys will be 5 to 8F cooler.
Gusty winds associated with a cold front moving southward through the area will continue to buffet the area, but critical fire weather conditions have ceased. The tricky part of the forecast occurs tonight as the well- advertised cold front passes north to south through the region. At any rate, the higher elevations along the Divide (particularly in central Colorado) will see the highest rainfall accumulations (and maybe some very isolated snowfall near the highest peaks). Precipitation chances linger in the San Juans through Tuesday afternoon, thanks to the influence of the trough, before we enter another dry period. We'll keep the cool temperatures around through the day on Tuesday before A large area of high pressure sets up over the western U.
An upper level trough continues to dig into the four corners region this morning as it dives toward southeastern NM tonight. Models finding more agreement this morning on how the upper level low to our east will play out and affect the CWA.
Axis of moisture placed ahead of a cold front to the north, along with large scale ascent on the lee side trough digging into the southern Rockies will lead to the development of convection during peak heating hours before vacating to the east.
348 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 (Issued 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020) Pre-dawn hours: Light winds haven't been quite strong enough to usher in drier air behind the cold front and with wet ground out there from the rain today and clear skies, patchy fog has developed. Today and Tonight: A low pressure system will slide along a stationary front parked to our southeast during the day today. This low will bring enough moisture with it to provide us with another round of shower activity.
353 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Forcing appear weak as upper level ridge extending across FL into the Gulf of Mexico begins to build north into the area, limiting convective coverage.
Most areas should stay in the mid/upper 70s, however a few breaks in the clouds could bring temperatures into the low 80s.
358 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Broad southwest flow aloft continues over the central Plains with a deepening trough axis across the Great Basin.
A low pressure system brewing over the southern Plains is already laying down a warm front to our northwest, and with abundant moisture still spread across the mid state, this system will help provide the impetus for at least scattered convection through the end of week before we get a refreshing early taste of autumn just in time for Labor Day weekend.
930 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 2020 A low pressure trough over the interior southwest will exit to the east through Tuesday, but mild weather will continue Tuesday over the region.
In response to a digging Pacific trough - with axis now working into the Four Corners region - the jet streak associated with subtropical energy appears to have situated itself with a good portion of the area being influenced by the left rear entrance region for the most part. Rest of Today/Tonight: Low level cloud cover is slow to exit the region as the midlevel trough is slow to move east. Overnight, portions of the area may see some fog development but this depends highly on the low stratus clouds clearing the area. This has allowed for a bit higher temperature forecast as a result with highs into the low to mid 80s for each day going into the weekend.
Another wave of showers and storms associated with a cyclone currently spinning up over northern OK is expected to move into SE KS over the next few hours.
So the forecast for today will have chance PoPS in southern areas where instability will be a little better, and in the higher terrain areas.
One last opportunity for precip mostly for Mohave county overnight as a cold front pushes down through southern Nevada and northern Arizona into Tuesday morning.
404 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A wedge of high pressure will remain in place across the area through today keeping temperatures on the cool side. A south southwest flow will develop during the middle of the week resulting in warmer temperatures along with a risk of thunderstorms.
212 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will make Tuesday noticeably more humid than recent days.