Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TX/NM ATTN AND IS ON APPROACH WITH TSTMS OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND MOVING TOWARD KLFK AND PUSHING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR I-20 TERMINALS MID TO LATE EVENING.
A 120 KT JET DIGGING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWING VORT AXIS' THROUGH THE REGION. AND THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ONTO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER.
A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPACT UPPER LOW. IT WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOMORROW.
/ISSUED 316 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016/ MEMPHIS HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE LOW 50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER MAY MAKE IT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINING TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE.
CLEARING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING TROF MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING INTO THE SE STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. AS DEW PTS INC OVER THE COOLER GULF PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
936 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATER THURSDAY.
454 PM MST WED JAN 6 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER TROF AND LOW CIRCULATION TO EXIT NEW MEXICO TO THE EAST BY 07/12Z ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SOONER. SFC LEE TROF/LOW TO REMAIN OVER NE NM AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 35KT WLY WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU 07/15Z. INCOMING TROF FROM AZ WILL START TO SPREAD INCREASING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND W OF THE CONTDVD AT 07/15Z.
549 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER T0 MID 30S/ THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ON THURSDAY NIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
534 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
610 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
539 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOG IS THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND FREEZING ON SURFACES. THERE ARE ALSO PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG I-29 A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE ALL FREEZING RAIN HAS STOPPED IN THE EAST. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT SO ANOTHER HEADLINE ISSUANCE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
944 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS BUT MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 20S AREAWIDE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 52 43 56 / 0 10 60 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 26 52 39 57 / 0 10 60 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 26 51 39 56 / 0 10 60 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 53 35 55 / 0 0 40 50.
939 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE THE CLOUDS FILL LATER TONIGHT.
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. S/W TROF AXIS OVER IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES/FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
920 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS. WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING PCPN BEFORE IT SWITCH TO SNOW. WILL ALSO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW OF AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH AND FOG.
EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES NOTED BACK WEST INTO SIOUX COUNTY SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE ROCKIES.
532 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG I-29 A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE ALL FREEZING RAIN HAS STOPPED IN THE EAST. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT SO ANOTHER HEADLINE ISSUANCE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WITH ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS RECEIVING SNOW. WITH SOME LOW TEMPERATURES COMING IN WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF CENTER OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SO WE WERE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT SHORT WAVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SHORT WSW LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY DUE TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES NOTED BACK WEST INTO SIOUX COUNTY SO WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE ROCKIES.
603 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE SFC-600 MB HELPED IN PART BY SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER PRESSURES NOTED OVER SRN TX. CLEARING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING TROF MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING INTO THE SE STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. AS DEW PTS INC OVER THE COOLER GULF PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
946 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 ADDING A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY AFTER SPOTTER REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR HWY 212 SOUTH OF IPSWICH. FOG IS THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND FREEZING ON SURFACES. THERE ARE ALSO PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG I-29 A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE ALL FREEZING RAIN HAS STOPPED IN THE EAST. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT SO ANOTHER HEADLINE ISSUANCE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
653 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 GETTING SOME REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND FARGO AND AROUND OAKES ND. COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FA HAS LIMITED THE FOG AND VSBYS THERE ARE GOOD SO FAR. THERE DOES APPEAR SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME INITIALLY.
628 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
748 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST DUE TO LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WRAPS UP AND HEADS NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION.
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS TAIL END OF TROUGH PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE PECOS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z TUESDAY.
THIS AREA LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK COVERAGE MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ON GOING CONVECTION OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A COLD FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
315 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN ILX THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NWRLY FLOW/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NE, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COOLER MID LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.
1259 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRALHIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PD. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY 18Z. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL SAY GOODBYE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
LEE-SIDE SFC PRESSURE FALLS WILL SPIN UP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NE WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW ALONG WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC BOUNDARY AND GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
345 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY THAT WILL MARK A TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL TO DOWNRIGHT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BOUNDARY MIXED OVER NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT WARMER FOR LOWS.
335 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
234 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WV THIS EVENING POSSIBLY STIRRING UP SOME STORMS. ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF AT 925MB NEAR MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO OUR AREA. TAX BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID- WEEK. BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.
355 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY CONTINUING THE ACTIVE WEATHER.
317 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WITH STORMS.
155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
OVERNIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY INSISTENT THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOISTEN AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK IMPULSE TRAVELLING WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK POPS AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. RAIN WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF AT THE 925MB SURFACE NEAR MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO OUR AREA.
348 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB), DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
204 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT MIDDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT. BUT TIMING OF BEST POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT ATTM DUE TO TIMING PERTURBATIONS ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST). WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.
TODAY-TONIGHT: RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER GUIDANCE. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE. WITH WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE REGION.
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT IN THE 20 PCT POPS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONTINUED DRY BUT WARMER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY.
349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW RIGHT AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO KENTUCKY. ALONG THE WARM FRONT SFC TO 1 KM SRH WAS AROUND 200 M2/S2. STORMS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS STARTED TO PULL NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR CAPE VALUES HAVE RAPIDLY STARTED TO RISE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE EAST TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT TO WORK WITH. NAM IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH WARMER 925 MB TEMPS. WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS BRING IN COOLER TEMPS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
1047 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 A cold front moves in today with a threat of scattered showers, thunderstorms, and breezy conditions. Very high surface dew points in the lower 60s and increased heating with increasing sunshine will result in quite a bit of surface based instability this afternoon over the Cascades, Okanogan Valley, and the Okanogan Highlands. and with some afternoon forcing as the short wave trough off the north Oregon coast moving into the Cascades. JW 18Z TAFS: An upper level trough moving through the region today will continue scattered showers at most TAF sites mainly between 18Z and 01Z with isolated thunderstorms possible.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. 29/12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE UPPER HIGH CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT. HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS DEPICTED A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW.
604 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
605 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY CONTINUING THE ACTIVE WEATHER.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BECOMES MORE TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DECREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 90S(F) TO NEAR 100F CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
234 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
1212 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE RIDGE OVER UTAH IS IN CONTROL AND WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS KEEPING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND AND INCREASE WITHIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN OVER THE N TO NW FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EACH DAY.
1018 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT. THE AREA IS GETTING OFF TO A WARMER START TODAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. IN THE LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND.
313 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
236 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE. WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID- LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
411 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB), DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.