Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
337 AM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Upper level ridge axis extended from western MT to the Four Corners. Attention turns to convective development over the Laramie Range around midday, and moving into the high plains through the afternoon and evening. The area of greatest interest highlighted by a Slight Risk by the SPC is the far southeast WY plains and much of the southern NE Panhandle, including Torrington, Scottsbluff, Pine Bluffs, Kimball, Sidney and Bridgeport. A weak front progresses southwest into the high plains Saturday morning and stalls near the WY/CO border late in the afternoon. Model soundings indicate thermodynamic parameters favorable for strong/severe convection focused further to the south and east, with the northwestward extent into the far southeast CWA, specifically east of a Bridgeport to Kimball line.
358 AM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows flat ridge over the Rockies with stalled upper low between Lake Winnipeg and Hudson Bay.
For tonight, benign conditions persist as a ridge tracks just north of the region. These lower dew points should also allow for a decent ridge/valley split during each overnight as cold air drains into the valleys, but not expecting even the highest mountain valleys to cool enough to support any frost. Daytime highs will be near normal values, generally in the lower 80s across the lower elevations. Patchy dense fog is expected to develop again late tonight as a ridge slowly crosses the region from the west.
618 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 The temperature forecast has been a bit complicated this morning as a corridor of readings around or just below freezing has been observed generally from Hettinger, up to Glen Ullin, and towards Hazen. Temperatures will be a touch warmer today as a deamplifying ridge axis to our west nudges into eastern Montana. An upper low that has been parked near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border for a couple days will continue to spin and wobble around as it weakens. By Saturday night, the upper low will slowly start to swing down from the Manitoba/Ontario border to northern Minnesota, dragging with it a cold front that will cross the state from north to south.
1034 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Increasing cloud cover and rain chances are expected through the day as Potential Tropical Cyclone One located southwest of Cuba moves northeast over the next couple of days. Conditions over the eastern gulf waters will deteriorate through the day and into Saturday as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves northeast toward the area.
1023 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak trough of low pressure remains across the region today.
628 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 (Today) Zonal flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain along the northern rim of a subtropical ridge. Weak synoptic scale ascent related to this feature has led to the sustenance of light shower activity early this morning, which should last for several more hours before gradually ending from NW-to-SE as the disturbance weakens and light northerly flow in the low-levels begins to advect drier air into the region.
Temperatures today are expected to range from the lower to upper 90s, from east to west. Tomorrow, warmer temperatures are expected across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains and temperatures climb to near 103 degrees.
745 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Aviation - Quiet Today with Some Fire Weather Concerns - Conditions will stay quiet through today as high pressure moves in and fully takes hold. Temperatures will touch into the low to mid 70s with lower dewpoints in the 30s to 40s.
941 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front moved through this morning with seasonably cool and dry weather expected today through the weekend. 315 AM Update: A few showers are lingering around the region early this morning as a cold front makes its way through CNY and NEPA later this morning. With the high LCLs this afternoon with the dry air advecting in it will be tough to get anything to reach the ground so PoPs were removed for this afternoon. High pressure will remain in place to close out the weekend.
Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning as high pressure is building in and only some high clouds moving across the area this morning. For tonight, benign conditions persist as a ridge tracks just north of the region. These lower dew points should also allow for a decent ridge/valley split during each overnight as cold air drains into the valleys, but not expecting even the highest mountain valleys to cool enough to support any frost. Daytime highs will be near normal values, generally in the lower 80s across the lower elevations. Patchy dense fog is expected to develop again late tonight as a ridge slowly crosses the region from the west.
/issued 346 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A mid-level ridge is once again dominating our weather pattern for the next couple of days. However, this ridge is moving in from the southwest bringing drier air to the CWA. Temperatures are gradually increasing as the ridge begins to move east for the weekend.
Afternoon highs also look to remain predom in the lower 80s for most spots.
(Today) Zonal flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain along the northern rim of a subtropical ridge. Weak synoptic scale ascent related to this feature has led to the sustenance of light shower activity early this morning, which should last for several more hours before gradually ending from NW-to-SE as the disturbance weakens and light northerly flow in the low-levels begins to advect drier air into the region.
653 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will move through the area today, leading to an increase in shower and storm chances. Mid-level ridge is all but gone at this point with flat flow aloft taking over. Cold front moves into the area today, accompanied by an increase in deep moisture. Initially convection will be powered by diurnal heating with focus on the sea breeze and to a lesser degree the cold front and the remains of the Piedmont trough. Shear is weak and wind through the lowest 10k ft are not particularly strong, generally 15 kt or less. Cold front in the area today pushes off the coast this evening, stalling southeast of the area early Sat. Maximums will reach the low to mid 80s Saturday with lows Saturday night in the low to mid 60s.
421 AM PDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A low pressure trough will cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and increasing cloud cover to the region.
The deeper mixing will also lead to a bit cooler afternoon temperatures, with most locations remaining below normal. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s for much of the area; however, portions of central into north-central Wisconsin will likely see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Saturday: The high pressure center will continue to shift off to the east of the area Saturday morning, which will allow a more moist southerly flow to develop into the area.
Incoming trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will flip wind to south and southwesterly. Some cloud cover will keep temperatures about the same, and the first impulse exiting the upper level trough will be enough of a trigger for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the central Idaho mountains and the Montana border region, even slightly into the northern end of the Snake River plain and the northern third of the ID-WY border. This trough will bring breezy conditions, but right now today and Sat appear to be Lake Wind Advisory-free.
Meanwhile, NHC continues to monitor a Potential Tropical Cyclone near the Yucatan Peninsula. Even though there continue to be components working against the system, it is expected to become a tropical cyclone today, as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
242 AM PDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A low pressure trough will cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and increasing cloud cover to the region.
647 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front moves through this morning with seasonably cool and dry weather expected this weekend. 315 AM Update: A few showers are lingering around the region early this morning as a cold front makes its way through CNY and NEPA later this morning. With the high LCLs this afternoon with the dry air advecting in it will be tough to get anything to reach the ground so PoPs were removed for this afternoon. High pressure will remain in place to close out the weekend.
505 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under building high pressure.
Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (TPC1) continues to slowly move away from the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The broad low pressure system has pushed squally weather over the Keys and local waters last night and this morning. As the day progresses conditions will deteriorate over our local marine zones and islands as convection well removed from the elongated low pressure will periodically propagate into the region. For more information concerning Potential Tropical Cyclone one please see Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) and Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings (TCV).
Otherwise, a weak upper level trough will be passing through to give some gusty winds today and tomorrow. This will allow High Pressure to strengthen over the region which will pave a way for Tucson and many low lying areas to experience 105+ degrees with a slight chance of 110 by the end of the week.
Southwest flow aloft prevails over Oregon this morning, and the cloud cover is courtesy of short waves ejecting from an offshore upper low.
321 AM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Weak anticyclonic flow over the region with a weak disturbance riding through the ridge will bring a few showers to mainly eastern areas for the first part of the day today.
A persistent closed low pressure system off the coast of British Columbia will continue to push moist air onshore and into the Northern Rockies through the weekend. The high temperatures and available moisture will create enough instability for a round of showers this morning, then again this afternoon.
1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Upper air pattern features a ridge over western North America and a trough over Hudson Bay/Canada. This will bring pleasant weather with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, light winds, and temperatures warming into the low 80s in the afternoons and dropping into the 50s overnight.
259 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure with seasonably cool and dry weather will control the weather through the weekend.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front draped across our southeast zones with a >1016mb high centered over the central Plains. Cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA from the northwest through tonight. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight and as a cooler drier airmass settles into our CWA morning lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures currently ranging from the low 70s to low 80s. A cold front sits draped through the Great Lakes and through the mid Mississippi Valley. In the upper levels, a trough axis extends from the Northeast back towards central Canada with ridging along the Southwest, northward through the Rockies. Saturday night lows will drop into the low to mid 50s.
On average, these temperatures are about 5F cooler than normal. However, cooler temps indicate the fire wx threat is lower than the previous two days.
As a result, expecting this feature to propagate rapidly eastward while melding into larger background low pressure across northern Ontario/Quebec. Negative H5 geopotential height anomaly emanating from Canada persists Saturday supporting cooler than normal conditions through the weekend. Low-level anticyclone moves east into the Tri-State region and builds downstream of slowing upper ridge axis while the upper pattern remains governed by low amplitude longwave troughing over the eastern half of CONUS. H8 thermal troughing mutes highs near 70F while cloud cover increases during the afternoon.
Expect lows tonight around 70 with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
320 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through tomorrow night as high pressure builds into the state. Overnight lows will fall into the middle 50s and then rebound into the lower 80s by tomorrow afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight, bringing light winds and cooler temperatures. As the high shifts to the east tomorrow, winds will become southeasterly but remain on the lighter side. Overnight lows will drop into the middle 50s, while seasonable temperatures will remain tomorrow with highs climbing into the lower 80s. As the high pressure shifts further east of the area, the next weather system will approach the area and bring the chance of shower back to central Illinois last Sat night, but mainly in the far northwest parts of the CWA.
Increasing rain and lightning storm chances today, first starting across the south this morning and spreading northward through the day as Potential Tropical Cyclone One approaches the Florida peninsula. Numerous to wide spread showers and scattered lightning storms are expected, with the highest storm chances for today will be this afternoon, with highest coverage of storms (PoP 60-90 percent) being from a line extending from Clermont to Orlando to Melbourne southward, with the higher end occurring across Osceola to Indian River southward. Additionally, winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts in the afternoon becoming higher tonight with building winds and seas late tonight with approach of the tropical cyclone ascd wind/squalls.
Southwest flow aloft will continue today as a low pressure system resides off the PacNW coast.
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance High pressure will move slowly east across the area today through Saturday, resulting in dry weather, lower humidity and mostly clear skies.
A back-door cool front is ushering in slightly cooler air on northeasterly breezes, and thus increasing RH values under a clear sky. Today, high pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny, but cloud cover will be on the increase from the southwestern to the northeastern forecast area through the day. Precipitation enters the picture this afternoon across south central SD, per the latest CAMs, as sufficient moisture moves into place out ahead of low pressure across western SD&NE. While the highest PoPs will exit the forecast area by mid-morning Saturday, the possibility for widely scattered showers remain in the forecast through the afternoon Saturday. High temperatures on both Friday and Saturday will be near to 5 or more degrees below normal, in the upper 60s to mid-70s, due to a lack of any amplified upper-level ridging or troughing across the region.
Will continue with the low end pops across southeast for this afternoon as we may see a few showers and storms associated with a decaying MCS currently over northwest Texas spread into the area.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad mid and upper level troughing extending south across the Great Lakes early this afternoon. with the center of this trough a closed mid level circulation rotating over northern Saskatchewan. Overhead troughing supplying a direct feed of marginally cool and dry Canadian air into northern Michigan, with current temperatures in the 60s and 70s (with those warmest temperatures across northeast lower Michigan where downslope flow is maximized). Details: As mentioned, large area of Canadian originated high pressure will build directly overhead tonight, bringing clear skies and light winds along with it. Definitely concur given expected conditions, and wouldn't be terribly surprised to see some of our typical ice box locations make a run into the lower 30s. By the early weekend the upper level low across Ontario will have evolved into two entities across southeast Canada.
138 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region though the weekend.
This will allow for some cool temperatures with decoupled valleys and cool spots likely falling down into the lower 50s. Given how well we might mix the rest of the afternoon, we may need to go another degree or two cooler in some of the notorious cool spots. Plenty of sunshine and a slight rise in low level thicknesses should allow for Saturday temps a couple degrees warmer than today. So, that puts most everyone in the low to mid 80s.
Temperatures have been trending warmer throughout the day, and should peak at seasonable highs in the low 80s and far upper 70s this afternoon. Both the clearing skies and the calming winds are conducive for a cool, crisp night, and temperatures will dip down into the lower and mid 50s. Temperatures should approach the lower to middle 80s across the CWA tomorrow afternoon, but dewpoint depressions are likely to be near 40 degrees. Tempertures will be slightly warmer than the previous night because of a slight increase in subsidence and the southerly component of the wind, with lows forecast in the mid to upper 50s.
1106 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected across central Illinois both today and Saturday.
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Aviation - Quiet Today with Some Fire Weather Concerns - Conditions will stay quiet through today as high pressure moves in and fully takes hold. Temperatures will touch into the low to mid 70s with lower dewpoints in the 30s to 40s.
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak trough of low pressure remains across the region today.
105 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
Showers that formed out ahead of the trough axis are now in the far eastern half of Upper Michigan. The main area of concern for areas of frost in Gogebic County is the eastern half, while warmer temperatures near 38-42 F are likely in the western part of the county.
246 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 The big weather concern for the next couple of days will be Potential Tropical Cyclone One located west of Cuba.
1152 AM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Upper level ridge axis extended from western MT to the Four Corners. Attention turns to convective development over the Laramie Range around midday, and moving into the high plains through the afternoon and evening. The area of greatest interest highlighted by a Slight Risk by the SPC is the far southeast WY plains and much of the southern NE Panhandle, including Torrington, Scottsbluff, Pine Bluffs, Kimball, Sidney and Bridgeport. A weak front progresses southwest into the high plains Saturday morning and stalls near the WY/CO border late in the afternoon. Model soundings indicate thermodynamic parameters favorable for strong/severe convection focused further to the south and east, with the northwestward extent into the far southeast CWA, specifically east of a Bridgeport to Kimball line.
126 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak front will push through the region tonight and Saturday with high pressure settling across the Great Lakes.
200 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Thunderstorms already going up on the high terrain of New Mexico from the Sacramentos to the Sangre de Cristos. Additional development may go in the Pecos Valley just downstream from the higher terrain.
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region though the weekend.
Given this, had to lower forecast highs by several degrees this afternoon into the lower 80's over interior portions of southeastern MS and southwestern AL with middle 80's closer to the I-65 corridor. Expect temperatures to cool into the lower to middle 60's inland and upper 60's to near 70 along the coast. For Saturday, a much drier day is on tap as high pressure starts to have a greater influence on the area. With less cloud cover over the area, expect highs to rise into the lower 90's for most locations. MM/25 High Risk of Rip Currents: The risk of rip currents is expected to increase later this afternoon due to swell associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One.
Another beautiful day today thanks to high pressure. Temperatures are a little warmer today, but nothing out of the ordinary for early June. Shower and storm chances have decreased a little more again for Saturday though because it seems we remain under some influence of the high and the drier air.
306 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will bring thunderstorms into early tonight. More seasonable weather is slated for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Ongoing thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this evening will continue with elevated instability after sunset. With the moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and cool air advection moving into the area, a cloudy start on Saturday seems likely with ground fog possible in areas receiving heavier rain. Temperatures will be much cooler than previous days with highs only in the low to mid 80s. A few isolated showers are possible during the afternoon due to a stationary front offshore holding its position close to the SC coast and a weak mid-level trough parked overhead. High pressure builds from the north behind the near term frontal boundary.
High pressure is in place today, centered over southern Minnesota, and that has resulted in mostly sunny skies with just a few diurnal cumulus clouds dotting northeastern Minnesota. A pressure gradient between the center of high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north and east has resulted in some breezy conditions today, which will persist until around sunset.
Otherwise winds were light across the region and temperatures were in the lower 80s for most. Drier air in the lower levels (inverted V soundings) does suggest some potential for breezy winds with any storms, but the limited updraft potential should keep any of this activity non severe (perhaps an isolated 40 mph gust or two). Instability should increase Saturday afternoon as surface dewpoint climb into the lower 60s and 700-300 mb lapse rates inch toward 8 C/km.
309 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will linger to our southeast today, and settle further south and east tonight. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic region over the weekend.
There is a chance of some showers this afternoon for the southwestern portion of the state as a warm front moves through western South Dakota. The temperature forecast has been a bit complicated this morning as a corridor of readings around or just below freezing has been observed generally from Hettinger, up to Glen Ullin, and towards Hazen. Temperatures will be a touch warmer today as a deamplifying ridge axis to our west nudges into eastern Montana. An upper low that has been parked near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border for a couple days will continue to spin and wobble around as it weakens. By Saturday night, the upper low will slowly start to swing down from the Manitoba/Ontario border to northern Minnesota, dragging with it a cold front that will cross the state from north to south.
144 PM PDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A little cooler this weekend with highs near normal for this time of the year.
223 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure with seasonably cool and dry weather will control the weather through the weekend.
Persistent low amplitude upper troughing over the eastern CONUS allows a much below average airmass to drop out of northern Ontario/Manitoba into the eastern half of the Great Lakes. While the thermal trough axis stays to our east, southern lower will reside under this airmass's western edge through Saturday as 850mb temps fall to 4-5C (approaching the 10th percentile for early June).
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s, and even into the low 80s for some areas have been observed so far across the CWA. With mostly clear skies expected tonight, radiational cooling will allow for another chilly night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s possible.
Upper levels show northwest flow aloft, with a mild ridge over the rockies.
341 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A weak cold front will move across the area this evening into today with high pressure building in tonight through Saturday night.