Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
355 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 The wintry chill continues, with generally quiet weather into tomorrow, when a cold front moves through the region, blanketing the area with some more fresh snow.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) It has been a cool, dreary day up until this point thanks to the combination of a brief, but strong, classical CAD event and the passage of a lobe of low pressure (and associated frontal system) across the Gulf Coast. Flow at the mid-levels remains out of the southwest as we find ourselves on the southern periphery of the broader trough pivoting across the northern Plains, sufficient to support continued weak moisture transport and lingering high clouds through late tomorrow.
Saturation remains mostly confined below -8C aloft and PBL temperatures remain above freezing so little to no snow accumulations are expected north of I- 70. Forecast lows are near freezing. An upper trough will be positioned across the Eastern CONUS, while at the surface, high pressure will be located to the south, with low pressure residing over the Great Lakes.
On the synoptic scale, a persistent deep trough across most of the contiguous United States will keep temperatures well below normal for the Quad State region through the short term forecast period. The trough axis tomorrow will provide very little change in surface wind direction but speed will increase with gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon.
For many, low stratus clouds or patchy freezing fog will continue through Wednesday, with little change in temperatures from highs to lows.
Winds will continue to grow northeasterly with time overnight and a trough of low pressure will sink southward down the lake and central to southern WI into tomorrow afternoon.
A cold front will move across Arizona from the northeast tonight into Wednesday producing gusty north to northeast winds and cold early morning windchill. Another dry cold front looks to move across the state from the north over the weekend with chilly temperatures and locally gusty northerly winds returning. The cold front will encounter just enough moisture for a chance of a snow flurry over the White Mountains region Wednesday afternoon but that is about it.
(The rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with a cold night in store for the area with readings 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
947 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Gulf Coast low pressure with accompanying cold front will sweep across the area tonight and end the rain chances once it exits to the northeast. Dry high pressure with below normal temps can be expected for the remainder of the work-week and possibly extending into the upcoming weekend. Low pressure will move off the coast tonight, dragging a front along with it and bringing an end to showers and isolated thunderstorms, as well as some patchy fog. Mid to high level clouds linger across the area Wednesday night, thickest near the coast as a weak trough moves across.
609 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad trough with the center moving over the eastern Dakotas as of 18z. A weak cold front will bring breezy winds tomorrow and help keep high temperatures about 20 degrees below normal.
This is related with approaching cold front that is currently stretching from the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions should improve into the evening with cooler temperatures infiltrating the peninsula for the rest of week. A cold front will move across the waters tonight and Wednesday with southerly flow and a few showers out ahead of it shifting to northwest to north behind the boundary.
The wintry chill continues, with generally quiet weather into tomorrow, when a cold front moves through the region, blanketing the area with some more fresh snow.
Light freezing rain is also expected across eastern Tucker county. Still have freezing rain continuing in eastern Tucker County into tonight. Persistent southeasterly flow/upslope, especially north and east of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain will keep temperatures near or below freezing through the remainder of the afternoon/evening, which will support the continued threat for freezing rain. Temperatures should remain a touch above freezing, limiting any freezing drizzle potential.
437 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 The long-wave pattern shows an elongated ridge of high pressure extending over the eastern Pacific north into Alaska while a broad trough spins over the Upper Plains region. This increased forcing will bring another round of light snow to the higher terrain of western Colorado.
607 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Tonight through Wednesday: A long stretch of chilly weather will continue in the near term over the forecast area as a large broad polar stream trough covers much of the nation. Through late week, cool and dry conditions dominated by high pressure will continue.
An elongated ridge of high pressure continues to straddle the western coast of North America, setting up an omega blocking pattern with a persistent dry regime for the PACNW. RH values will begin to drop towards the teens for interior ridges by Wednesday, according to the NAM and HRRR.
532 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Mean upper-level longwave troughing over is expected to remain over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, leaving the Midwest in a regime of broad, deep cyclonic flow through Wednesday. As such, high temps will range from the low-30s in northeastern MO/west-central IL to around 40 in southeastern MO, with more uncertainty between these areas. Pfahler Mean upper-level longwave troughing over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes is advertised to make little eastward advancement through the rest of week, supporting broadly cyclonic flow to hold through the Midwest.
733 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Gulf Coast low pressure with accompanying cold front will sweep across the area tonight and end the rain chances once it exits to the northeast. Dry high pressure with below normal temps can be expected for the remainder of the work-week and possibly extending into the upcoming weekend. Low pressure will move off the coast tonight, dragging a front along with it and bringing an end to showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. Mid to high level clouds linger across the area Wednesday night, thickest near the coast as a weak trough moves across.
A mid to upper low will continue to move south southeast out of the region through the rest of the day. At the surface, high pressure will continue to slide south south east across the west. This will make the cloud forecast a challenge as models want to clear out the area under the high, but abundant snow pack will probably keep at least some clouds hanging around. A warm front will approach the west Wednesday morning and move east across the state through the day, bringing a chance for some light snow and more stratus. This will mean warmer highs (but still well below normal) in the 20s. A reinforcing cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday evening, moving southeast across the state overnight.
Most of the activity will be in the I-80 corridor and over the ridges. Forecast soundings also do not depict an atmosphere that would promote snow creation, with perhaps the exception of the highest ridges late in the day.
Moving on, the upper troughing pattern over the eastern half of the country will continue. Thermal troughing will deepen for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
949 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Cold Canadian high pressure is building into the region with much below normal temperatures expected for the next few days. Lows will be around freezing by sunrise with places that clear out dropping into the upper 20s.
Under mostly sunny skies, look for afternoon highs only up into the mid/upper 30s(F) in central Kansas in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to the lower/mid 40s(F) farther southwest. Lows are expected back down into the teens(F) to possibly the lower 20s(F) in some locations tonight. An overall drier pattern will march on into the early part of the weekend as a broad scale upper level trough remains locked in across the Great Lakes Region while a much drier air mass dominates the Western High Plains.
Highs will lean toward the cooler side of model guidance due to the expected cloud cover, with highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s in the northern half, and mid to upper 40s south.
Under mostly sunny skies, look for afternoon highs only up into the mid/upper 30s(F) in central Kansas in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to the lower/mid 40s(F) farther southwest. Lows are expected back down into the teens(F) to possibly the lower 20s(F) in some locations tonight.
929 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Cold high pressure continues to remain in control across the central and southern Plains this afternoon. As the high center pushes further south, the pressure gradient should relax, allowing winds to decrease to around 5 MPH overnight. Despite the light winds and cold airmass, the cloud cover should be enough to allow temperatures to remain a few degrees above freezing for most areas. Tomorrow, high pressure will still be the main feature, resulting in light northeast winds across the area. Cloud cover will linger through much of the day, so temperatures will only reach the low 50s tomorrow afternoon.
Look for overnight lows in the low to mid 30s with northwesterly winds in the 5-10mph range.
Impacts outside of the morning commute earlier have been minimal with temps at or above freezing allowing for melting of the snow. I've kept the winter wx advisory in effect for portions of northeast IA where they're close to freezing and have the best chance for seeing refreeze and potential impacts for the evening commute.
1034 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 The long-wave pattern shows an elongated ridge of high pressure extending over the eastern Pacific north into Alaska while a broad trough spins over the Upper Plains region. This increased forcing will bring another round of light snow to the higher terrain of western Colorado.
This is occurring as a weak vort max rotates through the area on the south side of the Great Lakes upper low. Britt Mean upper-level longwave troughing over is expected to remain over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, leaving the Midwest in a regime of broad, deep cyclonic flow through Wednesday. As such, high temps will range from the low-30s in northeastern MO/west-central IL to around 40 in southeastern MO, with more uncertainty between these areas. Pfahler Mean upper-level longwave troughing over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes is advertised to make little eastward advancement through the rest of week, supporting broadly cyclonic flow to hold through the Midwest.
1040 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad trough with the center moving over the eastern Dakotas as of 18z. A weak cold front will bring breezy winds tomorrow and help keep high temperatures about 20 degrees below normal.
Highs should be in the 50s area wide, all be it slightly warmer than the day before.
Temperatures are expected to be well below normal as an arctic high pressure system settles into the central US. Temperatures will range from the low 40s in the west to near 50 in the far eastern Midlands. With the northerly winds over the region today limiting heating from afternoon sunshine temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal in the upper 50s to low 60s. expect overnight lows in the low 30s in the western Midlands and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Behind a secondary cold front late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, expect temperatures to drop once again as a broad upper trough moves over the eastern US with falling heights. Good consensus among blended guidance and a local temperature scheme in highs in the low to mid 50s.
This col is a result of a potent mid and upper level trough across the Great Lakes Region with a trough axis extending down into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This feature is pushing the low level ridge that was centered near Bermuda, further east out across the Atlantic.
Cold front passage on Thursday is forecast to dissipate the inversion and to clear the boundary layer.
815 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 Updated forecast as freezing fog has developed over many regions for an earlier beginning time. A blocking ridge of high pressure remains in place across the NE Pacific which has led to stagnating air conditions, morning fog and low clouds, unseasonably cold temperatures, and gradually deteriorating air quality. A strong disturbance is expected to rotated over the ridge and through the NRN Rockies Thursday/Thursday night and will likely result in about an inch of accumulation up along the Montana border and lighter amounts across the interior of SE Idaho.
This will allow temperatures to dip below freezing across a greater portion of the forecast area by Thursday morning, excluding the immediate DFW Metroplex and Central Texas where low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s. This will result in a warmer day across the region, with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. /Issued 235 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022/ /Thursday through Next Wednesday/ The synoptic long wave pattern will be dominated by ridging along the Pacific coast of Canada and broad positive tilt troughing over the CONUS. No surprise that cooler than normal temperatures are expected through the period.
Outside of urban areas, near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley each morning through the weekend. An upper low can be seen pushing through Southern California this morning. Conditions remain dry with this low with areas of stronger winds expected south of our area this morning and into the afternoon hours as well as in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains today. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the forecast period.
303 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Upper trough swings across the area tonight. However, an upper-level trough/low over the Great Lakes will swing southeast across the OH Valley into WV tonight. It remains chilly today with highs expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the lowlands, and 30s along the mountains. This will set up upslope conditions with an upper level trough helping to enhance lift. Expect several inches of snow in the northern West Virginia mountains, with even the lowlands possibly seeing a dusting of snow. An upper level trough will remain over the region through the weekend and into the beginning of the next work week.
1045 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022 Longwave troughing across the region with low-level NW flow is resulting in CAA in the low-levels and a strong inversion around 5k ft with clouds just beneath this layer. Yesterday I compared the high temperatures to normal November values, but perhaps I should compare it to our January averages (48/30 at Knoxville), brr. Ultimately the low responsible for our wet period is translating up to the Mid-Atlantic tonight and heading to Canada on Wednesday. Meanwhile the upper trough pivots from the Central Plains to the Ohio River.
Strong cold front will move through the region this evening which will begin a prolonged cold spell for us.
847 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2022 The wintry chill continues, with generally quiet weather into tomorrow, when a cold front moves through the region, blanketing the area with some more fresh snow. Tomorrow, late morning, a cold front enters our northern border and proceeds southward. Begin this period with The Treasure State located in the upper level north northwesterly flow on the leading edge of an approaching upper level ridge. The subsidence and drying associated with the approaching ridge, allow for generally mild conditions through the first part of the day, tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon, a cold front enters the region from the north and proceeds southward leaving an arctic air mass in its wake. With the lowest snowfall amounts expected across north central Montana. The surface cold front moves southward through the area, relatively quickly (over a 24 hour period).
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery continues to highlight a strong upper level low across the northern US with several pieces of energy pushing south into the Rockies and central US. A weak low level trough, with associated 900-925mb frontogenesis was producing some light snow/flurries across eastern Kansas per recent observations. High pressure slides to the southwest of the area tonight and clear skies should allow for temps to fall into the teens to around 20. One such wave drops into Missouri Thursday night, sending a cold front into the area.
These clouds have helped to keep our low temperatures a little milder than previously anticipated, with 08z readings in the lower 40s in most locations. A reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air will move into the area in wake of this feature and subsequently these clouds will dissipate by late this morning into the afternoon.
A broad upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes region to the Mexico border is expected to swing over the Great Plains throughout the day Thursday. Latest guidance has the positively-tilted trough axis moving over the High Plains early in the morning, bringing a return of Polar air with the northwest winds aloft. The snow/flurries could fall throughout the day behind the cold front. High temperatures are currently trending cooler with values in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
2) Cold front brings gusty winds, colder temperatures and perhaps snow showers Thursday.
339 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 High pressure will build across the Deep South for the next several days. This feature was likely associated with the position of the cold front. Isolated showers may develop over the outer waters ahead of the cold front early this morning, ending before the pre-dawn hours. The combination of the northwest winds and thick cloud cover should keep high temperatures limited to the low 60s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 40s.
In the upper levels, a trough over the southern Rockies will keep dense mid and high clouds in place holding highs near or slightly below values seen yesterday. The warmer air and clearing skies from the departing upper trough will send temps back up with widespread highs in the 50s expected Thursday.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Thursday but still below normal for mid November.
1257 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Gulf Coast low pressure with accompanying cold front will sweep across the area tonight and end the rain chances once it exits to the northeast. Dry high pressure with below normal temps can be expected for the remainder of the work-week, possibly extending into the upcoming weekend. Low pressure will move off the coast tonight, dragging a front along with it and bringing an end to showers and isolated thunderstorms, as well as some patchy fog. Mid to high level clouds linger across the area Wednesday night, thickest near the coast as a weak trough moves across.
A strong cold front is pushing southeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, with limited moisture ahead of the front resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the frontal passage. A much cooler air mass will advect into the Nature Coast this afternoon and will spread across the entire area by tonight, with Thursday morning lows ranging from the mid 40s over the Nature Coast to the mid 60s over southwest Florida.
Cold Canadian high pressure is building into the region with much below normal temperatures expected for the next few days. Lows will be around freezing by sunrise with places that clear out dropping into the upper 20s.
- A strong cold front will bring breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures this weekend.
Overnight will be quite chilly with lows dropping down into the low 20s to teens. Regardless, very chilly high temperatures are expected on Wednesday with locations north of I-70 unlikely to reach above freezing. South should top out just a few degrees warmer in the mid 30s. Dry weather and cool temperatures again expected as we head into Thursday, but highs should be just a bit warmer than Wednesday. Most will see temperatures reach the mid to upper 30s, but northern MO will likely remain in the low 30s again. A reinforcing push of cold air arrives Thursday night as a cold front moves through.
Above the surface, a broad trof will dominate the pattern throughout much of the country, with a more-or-less zonal flow that will be of little consequence to Arkansas. Lows tonight will be chilly across the state, but with clearing skies and cooler and drier air building in - tomorrow night will see even lower temperatures.
Lows should be fall well below climo, near freezing in the N to mid- upper 30s along & S of I-20. /DC/ Tonight through Wednesday: A long stretch of chilly weather will continue in the near term over the forecast area as a large broad polar stream trough covers much of the nation. Through late week, cool and dry conditions dominated by high pressure will continue.
On the synoptic scale, a persistent deep trough across most of the contiguous United States will keep temperatures well below normal for the Quad State region through the short term forecast period. The trough axis tomorrow will provide very little change in surface wind direction but speed will increase with gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon. High pressure will nudge closer to the Middle Mississippi River Valley for Thursday, continuing the dry weather. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s tonight will drop further reaching the lower half of the 20s Wednesday and Thursday nights.
1025 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 (The rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with a cold night in store for the area with readings 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
229 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 The synoptic picture on Wednesday will be a bit breezy with mainly dry conditions as a 500 mb trough moves across the FA. High temps will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows falling into the lows 20s as strong radiational cooling occurs with clearing skies and calm winds. Otherwise, the rest of the week remains dry as the flow in the mid levels become more zonal behind the departing trough.
1233 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Longwave troughing across the region with low-level NW flow is resulting in CAA in the low-levels and a strong inversion around 5k ft with clouds just beneath this layer. Yesterday I compared the high temperatures to normal November values, but perhaps I should compare it to our January averages (48/30 at Knoxville), brr. Ultimately the low responsible for our wet period is translating up to the Mid-Atlantic tonight and heading to Canada on Wednesday. Meanwhile the upper trough pivots from the Central Plains to the Ohio River.
WV imagery indicates a broad scale upper level trough of low pressure anchored across the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, high pressure is dropping south through the Northern Plains. With temperatures already above freezing today and a 40 degree 2 inch soil temperature, melting should be efficient over the next couple of days. Wednesday will be several degrees warmer, especially where all the snow has melted - low 40s across this currently snow covered area is erring on the upper side of the distribution.
Thursday, next W-E oriented weak longwave trough begins to advance over the northern Plains, with a reinforcing shot of cold air spilling southward. Latest guidance has the cold front reaching the northern Panhandles by the early evening hours, timing too late in the day to confidently alter blended guidance highs, which are in the mid 40s to mid 50s from the northern to the southern Panhandles. Thursday night, as temperatures cool behind the front and some marginal moisture advects southward, enough saturation will occur in the low levels for some very light precipitation as the upper trough approaches. While thermal profiles continue to point to flurries, will need to keep a close eye on the exact temperature, as just a degree or two warmer would actually tend to support a brief period of freezing drizzle instead.