Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high wind warning ends at 7 PM and the strong wind gusts should be subsiding by then. This energetic trough will continue to move through the region tonight. The trough will exit the forecast area with a quick ridge pushing through. Westerly flow aloft will allow for minor troughs to slide across the area bringing snow to the west and south.
618 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure is centered near the Mid-Atlantic states. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s in the Tennessee Valley due to warm air advection from southerly winds and sunny skies.
535 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start Wednesday with building high pressure and southwest flow.
644 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Cold and dry high pressure will continue with well below normal temperatures through tonight.
640 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start Wednesday with building high pressure and southwest flow.
850 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure currently located overhead will shift slightly offshore tomorrow. This area of high pressure will remain just offshore through the work week. An area of low pressure will track toward the area this weekend. High pressure continues to strongly influence the area, with no precipitation expected across the Mid-Atlantic for the night and into Wednesday. Winds are light and variable with high pressure located directly overhead. The high will remain in place overnight, allowing most locations to decouple and go calm. Most locations should drop back into the low 20s, with some upper teens possible in some of the typically cooler valley locations.
527 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show subtle ridging over the central plains in lieu of an approaching trough over the PNW.
544 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level trough will push through the Great Basin into the Rockies on Wednesday. There may be a gust to 60 mph in a spot or two if the low level jet can mix down to the surface briefly or if virga can help bring down some stronger winds during the day. just in case the low level jet mixes down as it is peaking.
As the low moves onshore and across the Pacific Northwest tonight, it will push a cold front over the Northern Rockies, dropping snow levels to the valley floors by Wednesday morning. Winds in the higher terrain of all area mountain ranges will gust to 40 or 50 mph on Wednesday morning. In the lower elevations, expect a slight chance for some freezing rain on Wednesday morning before the frontal passage in the Flathead and Mission Valleys, as well as along Highway 2 near Libby and Highway 200 between Noxon and Thompson Falls. Another concern will be freezing of lower elevation paved surfaces in the Missoula, Bitterroot, Mission, and Flathead Valleys. This situation will be a concern if enough liquid precipitation remains available to freeze on road surfaces during the dip to slightly-below-freezing temperatures in the morning.
751 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 We have issued a freezing fog advisory until 8am tomorrow as patchy fog/freezing fog is possible tonight across portions of north Mississippi and west Tennessee mainly for areas near the Tennessee River and Alabama state line. Relative humidity values are in the low to mid 90s already causing favorable conditions.
Zonal upper level flow overnight begins to transition to southwesterly Wednesday and Wednesday night as a large upper trof digs southeast across the western US. The center of the high expands from the Mid-Atlantic into the western Atlantic late Wednesday into Thursday which will allow a more established, warm and moist southeast flow to evolve. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday and then upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday.
Upper ridging covers the northern plains, while a low pressure system comes ashore over the Pacific NW. This low is pushing clouds into the western Dakotas, and a few rain showers are evident on radar across northeastern WY. As the Pac NW trough slides across the Rockies Wednesday, temperatures will cool slightly, and chances for precip will increase, especially across south central SD. This weekend, a trough will dig into the west coast, and swing into the Rockies.
Low temperatures both nights will stay above freezing. High pressure will dominate allowing dry weather to prevail until the front approaches later this week into the weekend.
Afternoon (3 pm) temperatures have already reached the warmest readings we have seen in over week for most areas in the CWA, with KC metro in the upper 30s and north-central Missouri in the lower 30s. In addition to warmer temperatures, surface winds will increase as height falls over the High Plains steepens the pressure gradient over the Plains. While temperatures will warm significantly over what we saw just a few days ago, cloud cover may prevent us from reaching the upper 50s to near 60 degrees on Thursday ahead of the cold front; therefore have decreased high temperatures a few degrees. Much of the lingering snowpack should melt over the next day or two, but warmer air advecting over the cooler terrain will lead to some patchy fog developing ahead of the cold front.
1116 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 We have issued a freezing fog advisory until 8am tomorrow as patchy fog/freezing fog is possible tonight across portions of north Mississippi and west Tennessee mainly for areas near the Tennessee River and Alabama state line. Relative humidity values are in the low to mid 90s already causing favorable conditions.
Despite the lower QPF for this system, the colder air in place will result in higher snow ratios.
1026 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level trough will push through the Great Basin into the Rockies on Wednesday. There may be a gust to 60 mph in a spot or two if the low level jet can mix down to the surface briefly or if virga can help bring down some stronger winds during the day. just in case the low level jet mixes down as it is peaking.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The low level flow will turn around to the southeast tonight beginning a warming and moistening trend for South Central Texas. Tonight all of our CWA will remain above freezing with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The warmer air will be accompanied by higher dewpoints which could lead to some morning cloudiness and patchy fog over the eastern half of the area. A similar change in lows will come Thursday morning when they will range from the middle 40s to the lower 60s.
234 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Clearing skies today with most areas seeing high temperatures warming to above the freezing mark for a change. Even warmer air begins to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with patchy drizzle expected. In the United States, with a trough across the west and a ridge across the east, a warm advection pattern takes shape as low pressure systems climb northeast from the Central Plains into the Northern Plains and south Central Canada along a forming baroclinic zone. Think these factors provide a floor to Wed night lows keeping them in the 30s and above freezing.
(Today and tonight) A wealth of Pacific moisture continued to stream northeast over the region this morning in advance of an upper trough digging into the Great Basin. Normally these winds decline toward dawn as the LLJ tapers, but this is unlikely this time as lee troughing will only sharpen from southeast CO to eastern NM.
109 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start Wednesday with building high pressure and southwest flow.
Marquardt (Issued 353 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022) Tonight through Thursday: Low pressure will sit over the Northern Plains from now through Thursday evening. We will need to wait for the low level moisture to arrive early Thursday morning for low clouds, fog, and drizzle to spread into southern WI. There is still a small concern that drizzle developing Thu AM could fall on sub-freezing pavement and cause minor, short-lived travel issues for the morning commute. Dewpoints are expected to rise above freezing by late Thursday morning.
305 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
1117 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start Wednesday with building high pressure and southwest flow.
Area of low sfc pressure will be located over the central and northern plains keeping a tight pressure gradient over the region as it interacts with the high off to our southeast. Along with the abundant sunshine, afternoon highs will be about 15 degrees warmer than yesterday climbing into the upper 40s/low 50s. Upper trough across the central US will deepen further south as it slowly shift eastward overnight. Lows will be mild, remaining above freezing ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s.
1047 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Issued an SPS for the potential for patchy freezing fog across our western half for late tonight. Temperatures are below freezing for most areas. If freezing fog materializes, we may upgrade to an advisory.
1052 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show subtle ridging over the central plains in lieu of an approaching trough over the PNW.
1249 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Clearing skies today with most areas seeing high temperatures warming to above the freezing mark for a change. Even warmer air begins to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with patchy drizzle expected. Temperatures climbing above freezing, combined with fair amount of sunshine should allow many areas to get rid of or significantly reduce any snow cover. Longwave trough will be entrenched across the western US, with a series of disturbances and sfc reflections heading northeast through the period. The first disturbance will begin its journey northeast with increasing isentropic lift in the 280-290K layers moving in late Wednesday night into Thursday associated with the arrival of the much warmer air.
The High Wind Warning ends at 7 PM and the strong wind gusts should be subsiding by then. This energetic trough will continue to move through the region tonight.
Today is expected to be dry, with a few showers over the Atlantic Tonight, as an inverted trough develops over the coastal waters. Lows Tonight will range from the mid 30s over interior SE GA, to the lower to mid 40s over NE FL.
1207 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 It's another cool, dry evening with high pressure remaining in control. Nevertheless, the clear skies and light winds favor a very efficient radiational cooling night, with freezing temps still for Levy County, and perhaps some frost as far south as into Pasco County. High pressure will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of day.
339 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Thursday.
157 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 Current surface analysis this morning shows low pressure over northeastern SD, with a frontal boundary backing into northwestern SD up into eastern MT. At the upper levels, mild ridging sits over the MN/WI area, with troughing over the western CONUS. As the day goes on, trough will slide over the rockies into the central plains region. Temperatures will cool down for today and the remainder of the week, as trough moves into the region. As the upper trough slides over the region, temperatures will stay around or slightly above average through the rest of the week.
For the most part, the fog has not been dense enough to cause freezing fog concerns. With all of that said, some patchy freezing fog cannot be ruled out for the rest of the overnight hours especially along and west of I-65. Models do show winds slightly increasing as dawn approaches which should help freezing fog from becoming widespread, so I do not think we'll need an advisory. With the assistance of the southerly wind, temperatures tonight will likely stay above freezing for the entire area. Looking ahead, once we get above freezing today, the entire area should stay ABOVE freezing for the next seven days. Temperatures on Thursday will be warmer than today with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
There is strong indication per forecast soundings precip mix in the form of rain/freezing rain/snow will be an issue to contend with early Thursday morning north of the I-80 corridor.
The cold front continues to move south and east through the area, having passed through Boise back around 725 PM MST. The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire at 8 PM MST (7 PM PST) as the wind has come down considerably. Snow showers are expected over the higher terrain of the north through the night, with 1 to 3 inches in mountain-valleys such as the Long Valley, and 3 to 6 inches in the higher peaks.
As the upper level trough over the Rockies amplifies/deepens, moisture over the southern Plains will be arching north-northeast into the southern Great Lakes this evening/tonight, with PW values rising aoa 0. More important will be the low level/surface moisture, which will likely lead to eventual low clouds and possible drizzle/fog coming over the frozen ground in place.
Details: Much of the area yesterday saw near to above freezing temperatures for the first time in over a week. Southerly winds could be a bit gusty this afternoon with amplifying western US troughing leading to increasing pressure gradient over the Midwest. Another warm day with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s is expected before the arrival of a cold front on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Ahead of this system, very warm air aloft has advected across the Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest with 92-80MB temperatures well above the freezing mark. As dew points begin to rise tonight, and into Wednesday, how much of the snowpack will melt or will it be more sublimation as dew points hold near or below freezing. In addition to the low level moisture, models remain different on how much energy is ejected out over the plains, and into the Upper Midwest Thursday. At least the better chance of measurable precipitation doesn't occur until those 92-80MB temperatures fall below freezing leading to a more snow vs. freezing rain/sleet scenario.
347 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Weak low pressure passing north of the international border will produce a period of light snows across mainly northern counties today. Outside some departing light snows/flurries across northeastern VT this evening, dry weather returns tonight into Thursday in response to strengthening ridging across the eastern third of the nation. Lows tonight should range through the 20s to around 30 (coolest eastern VT) with highs moderating considerably by tomorrow into the lower and mid 40s starting an extended stretch of very mild weather.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Thursday.
Given the synoptic pattern, opted to trend warmer than the NBM deterministic guidance; however, did not go toward the upper end of probability distribution given the potential for cloud cover. High clouds are expected across the area with some lower clouds across the southeast (where the lowest temperatures are forecast). Wind gusts should be weaker near the Kansas/Oklahoma border given the sharp cutoff in 925 to 900 mb flow and a weaker pressure gradient (given the closer proximity to a trough axis).
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough the Intermountain West up into British Columbia. Northeast Montana lies in a meso- ridge under southwest flow aloft. Farther West, zonal flow followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridge is moving over the northern Pacific. Today through Tonight: Cold front will move through the area this afternoon bringing light rain which will quickly transition to snow.
413 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 Current surface analysis this morning shows low pressure over northeastern SD, with a frontal boundary backing into northwestern SD up into eastern MT. At the upper levels, mild ridging sits over the MN/WI area, with troughing over the western CONUS. As the day goes on, trough will slide over the rockies into the central plains region. Temperatures will cool down for today and the remainder of the week, as trough moves into the region. As the upper trough slides over the region, temperatures will stay around or slightly above average through the rest of the week.
529 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Currently, weak ridging overhead is dwindling as a western CONUS trough approaches the region. Southwest flow aloft and leeside troughing will continue to enhance the tight pressure gradient that is already over the area. In the far Swrn part of the CWA we may see temps rise even into the low 60s. The main western CONUS trough will hang out over the Great Basin for the next couple of days.
(Today through Thursday Night ) An upper ridge will move through the central and eastern parts of the country today as an upper trough dives into the Rockies. The upper trough will move into the Plains Thursday and Thursday night. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the low will provide strong winds over northwest and west Arkansas. A warm front will lift through the state today and rain chances will begin in the south tonight and spread northeast. The trailing cold front will move into northwest Arkansas Thursday night. Warmer temperatures are expected today and Thursday. Highs today will be from the lower 50s to mid 60s and in the 60s to near 70 degrees Thursday. Lows tonight will be warmer with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s and in the lower 40s to mid 50s Thursday night.
338 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Key Messages: *Mild temperatures again today and through the remainder of the week into the weekend *System coming through tonight could bring a slushy mix of snow and rain, but there's still high uncertainty *January 2nd system could bring more snow, but a lot will be determined by the track of the low Satellite showing a lot of high clouds across the entire region that are expected to hang around today.
Patchy drizzle is also possible southeast of the accumulating precip chances tonight and early Thursday, as moisture surges northward ahead of the inverted trough axis.
Temps running pretty much on track for the maxes to hit 40-45F for most, and u30s in the higher elevations of the N.
The highest snowfall rates will be late this morning/afternoon. Wednesday night and Thursday will be about 10 degrees colder than today and tonight respectively, thanks to colder air aloft behind the trough axis.
Therefore we have issued winter weather advisories for snow/blowing snow across portions of Siskiyou and Klamath Counties, and a small portion of the higher terrain in SW Lake County.
528 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Today and tonight) A wealth of Pacific moisture continued to stream northeast over the region this morning in advance of an upper trough digging into the Great Basin. Normally these winds decline toward dawn as the LLJ tapers, but this is unlikely this time as lee troughing will only sharpen from southeast CO to eastern NM.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Rockies through tonight, with southwest flow aloft developing over West Texas. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s.
Key Messages: *Mild temperatures again today and through the remainder of the week into the weekend *System coming through tonight could bring a slushy mix of snow and rain, but there's still high uncertainty *January 2nd system could bring more snow, but a lot will be determined by the track of the low Satellite showing a lot of high clouds across the entire region that are expected to hang around today.
The region will be under upper level southwest flow to start the period, with a broad upper trough over the western part of the country. This trough will gradually work its way eastward, becoming centered over the Central Plains by late Thursday afternoon. At the surface, a warm front currently near the North Dakota/South Dakota border will move very little today, then will see the broad area of low pressure its associated with begin to track east tonight. Should precipitation begin during this time, mainly between 06Z and 12Z Thursday, freezing rain would be possible. High temperatures today will be mainly in the 30s, with a few locations possibly reaching the lower 40s west of the Missouri River. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s.
Have left alone the current winter weather advisories as surface temperatures are near the freezing mark and showers are expected to continue this morning then gradually diminish in the valleys by this evening.
Normal highs are in the lower and mid 30s. Most of northeast Nebraska rose into the lower or mid 40s (40 at Wayne, 41 at Columbus, 44 at Norfolk and 45 at Albion) but Harlan in western Iowa only reached 32. There were some temperatures in the trough as cold as about -25 C (KMFR and KBOI) at 500 mb. Right now we have the highest QPF closer to the axis shown by the 00Z ECMWF.
534 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure.
The more northwesterly flow and weak ridging will provide a dry and mild day across central California today before another weak disturbance begins to steer another stream of moisture into our region by early Thursday, bringing additional rain outside of desert areas, along with more mountain snow.
213 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough the Intermountain West up into British Columbia. Northeast Montana lies in a meso- ridge under southwest flow aloft. Farther West, zonal flow followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridge is moving over the northern Pacific. Today through Tonight: Cold front will move through the area this afternoon bringing light rain which will quickly transition to snow.
Isolated rain and snow showers elsewhere until 29/00z, mainly over the higher terrain. Widespread snow moving into southeast Oregon after 29/00z and southwest Idaho after 29/12z ahead of a warm front. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, except 10-20 kt in the Snake River Valley southeast of KMUO, and over the higher terrain, becoming variable less than 10 kt after 29/03Z.
637 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2022 Clearing skies today with most areas seeing high temperatures warming to above the freezing mark for a change. Even warmer air begins to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with patchy drizzle expected. In the United States, with a trough across the west and a ridge across the east, a warm advection pattern takes shape as low pressure systems climb northeast from the Central Plains into the Northern Plains and south Central Canada along a forming baroclinic zone. Think these factors provide a floor to Wed night lows keeping them in the 30s and above freezing.
This ridge has begun to build eastward off the Mid- Atlantic coast and is trying to shift local breezes northeasterly. Forecast - Through the remainder of the work week, the previously mentioned ridge will continue to build eastward into the Atlantic.
As surface ridging begins to shift east of the region this afternoon, southwesterly flow will increase. Based on these warming 850mb temperatures, surface temperatures should be significantly warmer today with max temperatures rising into the low to mid 50s for most locations this afternoon.
551 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Rockies through tonight, with southwest flow aloft developing over West Texas. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s.
353 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Currently, weak ridging overhead is dwindling as a western CONUS trough approaches the region. Southwest flow aloft and leeside troughing will continue to enhance the tight pressure gradient that is already over the area. In the far Swrn part of the CWA we may see temps rise even into the low 60s. The main western CONUS trough will hang out over the Great Basin for the next couple of days.