Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery shows a trough of low pressure deepening along the West Coast, as the parent low retrogrades over the Pacific Northwest. As a result, cooler conditions are prevailing across the region today, with temperatures running 2 to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. This trough will be our dominate weather feature through Thursday, with more seasonal type conditions prevailing, with overnight and morning low clouds possible. High pressure will try to re-assert itself for the start of the holiday weekend. The battle between the ridge and the trough will continue for the remainder of the weekend and through through the midweek, with Northern California situated between the two with dry southwesterly flow aloft prevailing.
This has since pushed to the lower tier of counties in MS and AL this afternoon.
Surface analysis depicts a weak high pressure ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas and through the Keys and South Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, the region lies within a col between a mid latitude trough along the Eastern Seaboard, an upper low near the Yucatan, and ridges over the western Atlantic and western Gulf. Lows by morning should reach the lower 80s for most locations, and surface winds will remain very light or calm.
749 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The cutoff low pressure area will slowly move south of the forecast area tonight. A cold front will drop south through the area tomorrow bringing a threat of additional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Hot and humid weather will prevail, with highs reaching the lower 90s for the holiday weekend. With light winds in place overnight and dew points in the lower to mid 70s, patchy fog appears possible, especially west of the I-55 corridor where temp/dew points spreads are already low. The extensive cloud cover continues to hammer the temperature projections over the southwest CWA, currently only in the lower 70s near Jacksonville, though Springfield has recovered to near 80. No real change in the in the long range pattern, with sprawling upper level ridging over the central U. Highs in the lower 90s expected each day, with lows near 70.
Upper low centered over southern Alberta continues to dominate our pattern in the Northern Plains. The upper ridge remains in place and will continue a pattern of warmer temperatures across the region.
231 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way.
Convection has remained mostly across the eastern part of the forecast area closer to where the troughing is occurring to our east. To our west, a ridge is building and this will leave the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. As temperatures rise into the lower 90s, especially in the west, and dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring heat stress to near 105 degrees. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by stout ridging across the Central and Southern Plains with a mean longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, across the southeast states, weak troughing will persist both aloft and at the surface. Will keep the HWO/graphics clear of heat stress for now as forecast heat index values are expected to generally remain in the low 100s.
758 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region.
Due to the rain cooled air, temperatures are likely already as cool as we will see tonight, in the low to middle 70s. Upper level high retrogrades into the Southwest US over the July 4th Holiday Weekend. Meanwhile, low upper heights persist across the Southeastern US in the wake of the retreating Eastern US trough.
643 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level ridging across the central US will keep conditions dry through most of Thursday.
shows a positively-tilted trough over the Pacific Northwest while ridging remains prominent well off the coast.
443 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way.
628 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a messy amplified pattern in place across the Nation, with a rather squished ridge axis across the center of the Nation, stuck between a large pair of cutoff lows over the east and west coasts. For tonight into Thursday, with the squished ridge axis still across the Central Plains, we will be once again watching for nocturnal thunderstorms as the overnight jet will likely find some instability to kick off more storms.
Weak high pressure will be over the region Thursday into the weekend. Mostly clear are forecast under the ridging on Thursday night.
1051 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 VFR conditions will prevail under persistent high pressure. The forecast as we head into the Holiday weekend is not totally clear cut, as the upper level ridge center over the Midwest looks to sag south, and lower Michigan resides at the top of the ridge with 500 MB heights actually slowly lowering through the weekend.
731 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the end of the week. Took a look at this afternoon's dewpoints and adjusted a few locations a little cooler. A fairly dry low level atmosphere and high pressure remaining in the region will allow for mostly clear conditions tonight and temperatures will radiate down into the 60s. Thursday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today with northeast flow over the region on the southeast side of high pressure. With low levels both warming and drying, expecting less cloud cover on Thursday and temperatures should exceed today's highs into the lower 90s for some areas. With warmer highs on Thursday, overnight lows will respond a couple degrees warmer on Thursday night in the mid to upper 60s.
650 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 VFR conditions will prevail under persistent high pressure. The forecast as we head into the Holiday weekend is not totally clear cut, as the upper level ridge center over the Midwest looks to sag south, and lower Michigan resides at the top of the ridge with 500 MB heights actually slowly lowering through the weekend.
Otherwise, still don't expect much in the way of convection as the upper level high pressure ridge will continue to be the dominant weather feature.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a messy amplified pattern in place across the Nation, with a rather squished ridge axis across the center of the Nation, stuck between a large pair of cutoff lows over the east and west coasts. For tonight into Thursday, with the squished ridge axis still across the Central Plains, we will be once again watching for nocturnal thunderstorms as the overnight jet will likely find some instability to kick off more storms.
Winds shift to the southeast tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the low 60s across west central Kansas to low 70s across south central Kansas. East to east northeast winds through the night into Thursday morning will support the development of low stratus and fog, with the highest probability of affecting GCK, DDC, HYS terminals with some IFR/LIFR flight category.
327 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Short Term (Through Friday): Weak westerly to southwesterly flow remains in place over the area for the next couple of days as a trough continues to dig southwestward over the Eastern Seaboard.
305 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 The heat will go on today with temperatures forecast to top out in the lower to mid 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Today's surface features include a cold front across eastern Montana this morning, that is forecast to move into central North Dakota this afternoon and remain nearly stationary there tonight.
/EC/ Convection has remained mostly across the eastern part of the forecast area closer to where the troughing is occurring to our east. To our west, a ridge is building and this will leave the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. As temperatures rise into the lower 90s, especially in the west, and dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring heat stress to near 105 degrees. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by stout ridging across the Central and Southern Plains with a mean longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, across the southeast states, weak troughing will persist both aloft and at the surface. Will keep the HWO/graphics clear of heat stress for now as forecast heat index values are expected to generally remain in the low 100s.
1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Upper level ridging across the central US will keep conditions dry through most of Thursday.
Aloft, ridging was centered over Oklahoma. A disturbance will move around the periphery of the ridge today and into Arkansas this morning. Expect a repeat performance tonight and Friday as the ridge shifts a bit to the west, and troughing digs westward from the southern Appalachians.
416 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Low pressure over New England will move offshore and drift south today and tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Plains will also shift east and move over the Midwest, so warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures near or just above normal. Upper low off the New England coast will move south today. The main trough axis will rotate off the Mid Atlantic coast today. As with the past few days, the warmer guidance will be used for maximum temperatures. Upper ridging over the Midwest begins to encroach into our region Friday.
Winds will be decreasing some overnight as the trough passes to the east. The flow will turn west to southwest on Thursday with a warmer and mainly dry day for much of the area. Latest water vapor shows cyclonic flow across the region and over much of the western CONUS with an upper closed low positioned over northern ID to southern British Columbia/Alberta border. Slight chances for isolated storms near/in the Wallowa mountains late today with the upper low nearby and modest broad scale forcing for ascent spreading in with weak instability, however, confidence in occurrence is low. Overall, synoptic scale troughing and cyclonic flow will persist through the short-term.
Expect humidity to be lower tomorrow, with warmer temperatures and gusty west winds returning by Thursday afternoon.
Our location to the SE of the approaching high pressure system will keep winds across the CWA generally north to northeast today and Friday. Highs today and Friday will be warmer than that of yesterday, with upper 80s to around 90 degrees on tap. Unfortunately, even though high pressure and drier air is moving into place, we won't lose all of our llvl moisture immediately. With mostly clear skies also on tap for the upcoming night, can't rule out some ridge/valley splits in the temperatures. The period will begin with increasing 500mb heights as ridging pushes east.
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 An upper level trough will set up over us for the next few days.
Due to the rain cooled air, temperatures are likely already as cool as we will see tonight, in the low to middle 70s.
/issued 958 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ Another quiet evening is underway as temperatures have fallen some 10 degrees or so off the earlier afternoon highs, now ranging from the lower to mid 80s areawide.
147 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the end of the week. A fairly dry low level atmosphere and high pressure remaining in the region will allow for mostly clear conditions tonight and temperatures will radiate down into the 60s. Thursday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today with northeast flow over the region on the southeast side of high pressure. With low levels both warming and drying, expecting less cloud cover on Thursday and temperatures should exceed today's highs into the lower 90s for some areas. With warmer highs on Thursday, overnight lows will respond a couple degrees warmer on Thursday night in the mid to upper 60s. The short term period begins Friday with extensive upper ridging across much of the Central and Eastern US.
High pressure continues to dominate the pattern for southern Wisconsin. With dewpoints around 70, this yields a max heat index value in the lower 90s. Heat indices in the low 90s fall just below the heat advisory criteria, which requires values to reach into the mid to upper 90s for four days or more.
328 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure builds into the region from the northwest today into Friday.
1037 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way.
401 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Upper level trough offshore will continue to pull away from the area today and tonight.
Otherwise with upper level ridge parked just to our west and an axis of vorticity entrenched north/south across forecast area, will see isolated/scattered showers and storms develop, especially from late morning and into the afternoon hours today and again on Friday. With surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s today, it will remain rather humid with heat indices between 95 and 100. Byrd Upper level ridge will weaken a bit over the region through the holiday weekend, so the Fourth of July will be a bit warmer, but remain dry for the holiday festivities.
335 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 The upper-level trough that has been over much of the western CONUS has begun to retreat back to the northwest. The upper-ridge that has been over the southeast has expanded and moved west to encompass much of South Texas. The dryline has once again retreated, with the low-level moisture all the way back into eastern NM. Kendrick Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry through most of the weekend as upper ridging dominates overhead. Some convection will be possible across eastern NM as diurnal storms develop across the higher terrain of NM. These should stay mostly to our west due to the position of the upper high.
334 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Blocking pattern in the mid to upper levels continues with ridging over the Plains into the western Great Lakes and slowly evolving troughs over the west and east coasts. Light onshore flow will again keep temperatures on the lakeshores a few degrees cooler. While ridging remains into the upcoming weekend, the east coast closed low will be moving offshore driven by a digging trough through eastern Canada. This digging trough will actuall allow lowering heights at 500 mb to creep into the central Great Lakes as the ridge axis is pushed slightly to the west by Friday morning. Little change in the airmass will continue to support high temperatures mostly in the low 90s through the holiday weekend.
The Subtropical Ridge will become more dominant over South Central Texas with increasing subsidence, capping warm mid level temperatures, and decreasing moisture aloft keeping rain out of the forecast.
An upper level ridge then dominates our area, raising temperatures and bringing us dry weather for Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure and associated upper level trough will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the day Friday.
Southwest flow takes over, bringing warmer weather our way as we move into the holiday weekend.
338 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 An upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest and an upper ridge is over the Southern Plains. Temperatures today are expected to be cooler than those yesterday with an increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorms are possible areawide this afternoon and evening with the best chances across the higher terrain. Upper ridging will continue over the region through the end of the week.
As the upper trough over northeast CONUS lifts out into the Atlantic throughout Friday a stream of vorticity and high moisture will remain over our CWA. PoPs will be high throughout Friday, with values greater than 70% as a weak area of low pressure develops over our area along with some mid-level height falls.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The short term period will be rather tranquil under a ridging pattern.
Much drier today with frontal boundary just to the west/south of the CWA, with high pressure continuing to take hold across the area. Hot and humid again today, with max temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowland counties. Ridging aloft will nudge eastward through the Ohio Valley by the start of the period, forcing low pressure along the Delmarva coastline to drift out to sea. This will also result in the surface cold front positioned near the southern extent of the forecast area the past few days to depart southward and eliminate shower and storm potential for the next several days. Rising 850mb temperatures in response to the encroaching ridge and residual flattening pattern will lead to a gradual warm up at the surface heading into the holiday weekend.
Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a closed low located over the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta, with a ridge from Mexico toward the western Great Lakes region. 08Z Surface analysis Showed high pressure centers over northern WI and southern IL, with low pressure along the lee slopes of the Rockies. Winds today will be mostly from the east or southeast in the low levels and the airmass will only be slightly warmer than yesterday. it appears that storms that develop over the high Plains will try to move eastward toward our area. Mid level flow pattern will become less meridional as the ridge decreases in intensity and the trough over the northwest US starts to fill.
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through the end of the week. Otherwise, mid/upper level ridging will continue to build in across the area through this afternoon with rising heights aloft. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to nose into our area from the southwest through Friday. With some airmass modification, 8h temps will nudge up a bit, with highs on Friday mainly in the lower 90s. The period begins Friday evening with a broad H5 ridge from the central U.
303 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure builds into the region from the northwest today northwest today into Friday.
The narrow, tenacious, east-west oriented ridge axis aligned across extreme South Florida to the Straits of Florida will splinted while sagging southward into this weekend. This will be in response to low pressure dropping into the extreme northeast portion of the Gulf of Mexico and North Florida.
323 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region. Heat continues to build today, before a cold front passes tonight and Friday, sending temperatures back to more comfortable summer levels for the weekend. A warmer day expected today with building heights as the upper low starts to track east of New England. A cold front approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley will bring a better chance of convection to the eastern Lake Ontario region during the evening. The cold front will only drop towards the central waters of Lake Ontario and points eastward tonight.
The upper ridge impacting the region will start to push back to the west, allowing some somewhat cooler conditions starting Friday.
1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Another calm and quiet night for southern Wisconsin with high pressure dominating the weather pattern. The high pressure will keep it dry across southern Wisconsin. Light winds that will be variable at times will continue into the weekend, as high pressure lingers over Lake Michigan. Waves will remain on the low end through this period. High pressure will keep it dry across southern Wisconsin. Otherwise, mid to upper level high pressure will hold strong over the Great Lakes through Thursday.
Temperatures will rise through the weekend as a strong ridge builds toward the Great Lakes. The upper level low that has showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region the last few days is finally heading eastward out into the Atlantic.
240 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020 An upper low over western Canada/Pacific NW will gradually weaken over the next few days into an upper trough that will remain in place for several days. Varying degrees of SW flow will over Montana for the next several days with an upper ridge to the east.
Ridging pattern is continuing to set up across the region. In addition to POPs, the region is settling in nicely for a more typical, but slightly warmer than average, pattern to kick off July. With the ridge in place, warm and moist air continue through the extended.
Weak upper low/trough will continue to make its way south toward the Gulf, as much drier air continues to sink in behind. Heading into mid-week, upper ridging remains the theme but will be quite weak.
Tonight: A very weak disturbance will move northeastward along the edge of the upper trough. This will move across the area this evening and into the overnight hours and may provide just enough support to develop thunderstorms over the High Plains that may track eastward across the area during the overnight hours. so have kept chances for precipitation on the lower side. The upper level ridge will dominate. That being said, pulsy storms are possible, as well as some convection rolling off the High Plains.
High pressure will begin to build in from the northwest Thursday night, resulting in a hot and humid, but mainly convection free day for Friday.
The ridge aloft which has kept rain chances low over the past few days will shift west away from the area Friday as a trough digs into the southeastern states.
In addition to the warmth will be dewpoints from the mid sixties to lower seventies over southern portions of the Northland with them the highest over northern Wisconsin. It will be a bit cooler near Lake Superior though as light off lake winds are expected.
227 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure builds into the region from the northwest today northwest today into Friday.
The upper level low will move off the coast on Thursday, with the trough axis moving east of our area. To our south, a stationary boundary will be positioned over the Carolina's with weak low pressure off the NC coast. High pressure will still be in control on Friday. Otherwise, the vast majority of the region will be dry and hot, with high temps in the low to mid 90s.
Concur with deterministic runs that the upper level high pressure system will meander over the region during the period. The NAM predicts near normal PWAT values today, yet CIN and the upper ridge should preclude precipitation.
915 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 High pressure continues to ridge westward over southern Florida keeping a west-southwest onshore flow across west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. Temperatures are already in the low to mid 80's and will quickly warm up into the 90's this afternoon.
/Issued 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ The heat will go on today with temperatures forecast to top out in the lower to mid 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
1011 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region. Heat continues to build today, before a cold front passes tonight and Friday, sending temperatures back to more comfortable summer levels for the weekend. A warmer day expected today with building heights as the upper low starts to track east of New England. A cold front approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley will bring a better chance of convection to the eastern Lake Ontario region during the evening. The cold front will only drop towards the central waters of Lake Ontario and points eastward tonight.
The models are in general agreement for the much of the forecast period, with an upper-level ridge to the west of the Mid-South and an upper-level trough to the east. The ridge and trough pattern breaks down at the end of the holiday weekend. The upper ridge is still to the west--weaker--the upper- level trough moves over the Atlantic and the pattern in the northern US is more zonal.
/issued 327 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ Short Term (Through Friday): Weak westerly to southwesterly flow remains in place over the area for the next couple of days as a trough continues to dig southwestward over the Eastern Seaboard.