Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon across the southern CWA within the warm sector, but the northward extent of the affected area will depend on how quickly the warm front lifts northward today. Highs today will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight lows will be 5-10 degrees warmer than last night for locations south of the warm front. A warm front will lift gradually lift northward into our area on Saturday with numerous showers and storms along and north of it.
Some may linger into the morning but mostly expecting dry conditions today as capping inversion likely to hold most of the day as warm front lifts north into parts of eastern OK. While a few storms may develop near dry line and front intersection well to our west, more likely scenario will see upscale grown of convection this evening as low level jet strengthens in response to approaching upper trough, especially to the north of the frontal boundary. As for severe weather, a good deal of the storms may be elevated, and storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer could pose some risk of significant severe weather given the environment, especially any storm that can interact with the warm front.
1207 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Mild under high pressure this afternoon, with unsettled but warm weather expected for the weekend. Low dew points with seasonably warm temperatures will continue under high pressure through the afternoon. Most models push the warm front north toward the New York and Pennsylvania border where it stalls late day Saturday. Warm front should remain near the New York border through the period as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on thunderstorms through the period, with warm and more humid conditions developing under the ridge aloft.
This cloud deck is keeping the cloud covered areas in the lower to mid 40s, and with models showing the cloud covering continuing into the morning it looks like most of the west valleys will be spared a frost this morning. An upper level ridge builds into the region through the day with offshore flow strengthening. The thermal trough remains in place on the coast with offshore flow spreading across the east side by Saturday morning. with the thermal trough moving inland and the preceding strong offshore flow, Saturday will see around a ten degree warm up from Friday. The ridge flattens and a northwest zonal flow brings a weak front in Saturday night.
Main boundaries to watch will be retreating warm front which is expected to be just north of the I-44 corridor along with a developing dryline. This dryline looks to be retreating west during the afternoon into the early evening as the warm front lifts to the north and surface pressure falls occur across west Texas in response to developing western trough. Very unstable airmass will exist above the low level cap and expect main impacts with the severe storms, as most are expected to be elevated in nature, to be large hail. As we go through the day Saturday, large closed upper low will continue to shift east and southeast with mid level flow becoming increasing parallel to low level boundary, increasing the heavy rain potential across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma.
723 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will move quickly east of the region today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Expect another round of gusty winds as a cold front moves south through the state today.
755 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 A weak surface cold front was pushing east across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley early today. An anomalously strong mid and upper level subtropical ridge will build westward from the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend. We will be on the warm and moist western periphery of the ridge most of the weekend with a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms anticipated.
1239 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 High pressure will move quickly east of the region today with a warm front developing over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
1237 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Dry high pressure will build over the area tonight into the middle of the week.
Strong high pressure in place across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys will continue to bring warm and dry weather to Indiana Today and tonight. A weak cold front is expected to sweep through through the Great Lakes and Indiana on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Night.
A second ridge of high pressure moves over the area tonight. The next low pressure system moves over south central Canada and the plains Monday. We will reside in the warm sector of the low where high temps should get into the low 60s. Local climatology suggests we could be a few degrees warmer, but I'm unsure how deeply we will mix and warm. JEE 223 PM CST The warmth continues Monday night followed by a cold front. The thermal ridge moves overhead Monday night, and temperatures will rise or remain in the 50s for much of the night. Gusty winds to 30- 35 MPH will accompany the warmer air. However, the low's cold front will swing through in the afternoon. The GFS has the strongest and most persistent upper level wave, and as expected, as the highest amount of rainfall too.
1241 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will push across region providing for dry conditions into the middle of the work week.
/Tonight through Monday/ The upper ridge currently over the intermountain west, will move quickly west tonight as a strong short wave drops southeast into California. The upper ridge will be over Iowa on Monday. Warm advection will be ongoing tonight and through the day on Monday as the thermal ridge approaches from the west and arrives by Monday afternoon. This inversion will strengthen through Monday as the thermal ridge aloft arrives.
An upper level trough axis will continue to stretch across our area southwestward into the Gulf through tonight. Deep layer high pressure and deep layer dry air will be in place much of the short term period leading to tranquil and dry conditions. A warming trend will commence with highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday as opposed to the upper 60s Monday.
1108 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 A ridge over the western 2/3 of the CONUS exists with an exiting trough over the eastern 1/3. The ridge will move east with the approaching system from located from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. The next trough is still on track to move onshore tonight and move east with a position over the Rockies on late tonight. A southern solution is still favored with the low in Oklahoma and along the Red River Valley of the south.
Slightly cooler tonight, but some uncertainty as to how dry near sfc layer will be overnight.
An upper level trough currently over northern California will move to the Four Corners region tonight and then out into the Central Plains on Tuesday.
1143 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure currently over the region this afternoon, will begin to shift east of the Ozarks tonight.
Still went below most guidance for the lows overnight. Have gone with the models that have the higher wind speeds for Monday, and also raised the temperature over guidance. Focus still remains temps with PoPs still in the low chance range. These differences continue into the nrn trof Wed night into Thurs. The GFS has much more QPF with a much deeper trof, with good support from GEFS members. With fropa delayed slightly, have trended nrn portions of the CWA slightly warmer too.
1159 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure will support dry weather and moderating temperature through mid week. That disturbance will encroach over the region during the predawn and spawn some cloudiness with a mid level thermal trough.
150 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure in control through mid week.
207 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Mild, Pacific high pressure will build east across the Carolinas today, then offshore on Tuesday. An area of high pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will maintain clear skies across central NC through tonight. Low level thicknesses support high temperatures close to normal, generally around 60 north to the lower 60s south. This moderating air mass will translate to afternoon temperatures into the low-mid 60s under sunny skies.
Still opting to keep slight chance of freezing drizzle north of Devils Lake as strong warm air advection aloft continues over a surface stationary front that is expected to migrate northward as a warm front. Northwest flow aloft continues, with high pressure extending from Manitoba down into our CWA. The high has had some low clouds trapped underneath it, and there has been more low clouds across the northern CWA than originally expected. There is good warm air advection occuring for much of the day, with 925mb temps getting into the low teens C. The north should see the low stratus move off into Canada during the morning, but the approaching trough axis will bring in more clouds from the west. Will continue to keep the low POPs we have going for our northern counties, but amounts will be minimal.
S/SW winds will initially be light this morning, then will increase to 10-15mph this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between a high anchored along the East Coast and a cold front over the Northern Plains. Impressive thermal ridge axis will develop ahead of the approaching boundary. As a result, do not think record high temperatures in the lower 70s will be threatened today. Will generally go 3-4 degrees above MAV guidance, with afternoon readings topping out in the lower to middle 60s. with low temperatures ranging from the lower 40s near the Indiana border to around 50 degrees in the Illinois River Valley. The Northern Plains cold front will settle into central Illinois by late Tuesday: however, it will be moisture-starved and will produce little in the way of precip.
1230 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Cool and dry high pressure will build over the region and persist into midweek.
Increased moisture and the return of southerly flow will help lows to remain in the low to mid 50 range.
Places like Marshall, Slayton, and Tracy, MN could see gusty south winds before sunrise as downsloping off the Buffalo Ridge aids in mixing down higher momentum air. Winds will begin to decrease mid-afternoon from west to east as the low pressure trough moves through.
Drier cooler air working its way in from the northeast will make for a chilly night in the 40s under a near calm wind and starry skies. /ISSUED 307 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017/ Mainly dry weather should continue next several days as a few cold fronts cross the area but with limited moisture to work with.
Winds will become gusty mid morning, particularly at KABI and KSJT where gusts to 23 KTS are expected by mid morning as lee trough develops and surface inversion breaks. A stronger lee trough will bring gusty winds to 23 KTS at KABI and KSJT mid morning through the afternoon. /issued 232 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017/ (Tonight and Monday) An upper trough will move onshore along the West Coast tonight, then move east across the Intermountain West and Great Basin region on Monday. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with lows in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. A strengthening lee trough will result in breezy south winds developing on Monday, with gusts 20 to 25 mph.
132 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure continues to build in from the west today. The high will slowly shift off the coast Tuesday.
336 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show broad upper ridge building into the Central Plains this morning. Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday ahead of incoming cold front.
246 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Latest GOES-16 nighttime microphysics RGB imagery shows thicker mid level clouds well north of the area, with high clouds dropping down the ridge axis and working into the forecast area. Kept the forecast near the high end of the guidance, which is reasonably in line with the latest RAP, HRRR, and HopWRF forecasts. Cold advection and surface ridging will start to work in overnight behind the front.
353 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Dry high pressure will remain over the area into midweek.
349 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Upper analysis shows a broad trough exiting the east coast of the conus, low pressure cutting off in the southern Gulf of Mexico and ridge moving east across the midsection of the country. Ridge nudging in from the west will promote slight warming today with most locations seeing around 70 degrees for highs. This ridge to the west will quickly race east across the area tonight which will draw the trough in the southern Gulf closer in to the northern Gulf Coast.
A relatively mild overnight anticipated with warmer than normal air mass in place and strengthening surface lee troughing due to stronger winds aloft. Most low temperatures will remain above freezing.
Southeast winds at 3 to 6 knots at TAF issuance time will become southerly by daybreak and increase to 12 to 15 knots by 17z Monday as a lee side trough deepens. As the axis of the high slides east tonight, a southerly wind direction will dominate, but the speeds will remain light.
Under this setup, expect slightly warmer lows than previously forecast, with mid/upper 40s now anticipated tonight. Ahead of this, will likely see another day of above normal temps, especially as temps will begin on the warmer side.
The clouds have complicated the temperature forecast, keeping us cooler than initially expected. Clouds will continue to increase overnight and into Monday morning as an upper level ridge axis currently located over eastern Montana, slides east over western and central North Dakota. As was the case today, cloud cover could keep things a bit cooler. Strongest winds will come behind the cold front in the west by Monday afternoon. By Monday night, we transition back into northwest flow aloft as the trough keeps chugging east and ridging once again builds over over the western US. A second push of breezy to windy conditions will affect our northern counties overnight on Monday, driven by cold air advection and the approach of an elevated cold front sagging south from Canada. Temperatures on Tuesday will be much cooler with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.
/ISSUED 826 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017/ A little bit warmer tonight with forecast lows in the 40s under mostly clear skies.
Gust potential up to 50 mph over the higher peaks with brief mixing allowing gusts up to 30 mph across the valleys. Hard to go again a standing 116 year old record but it is what it is and it looks warm and we locked in temps in the lower 60s for the Grand Valley. Snow levels will also be starting off on the high side (9000-10000 FT), but will lower as the colder air arrives overnight.
144 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure in control through mid week.
252 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will persist through the short term portion of the forecast. The high center will move overhead early today, and begin to shift offshore by late today/early Tuesday. In the mid levels, a trough/cutoff low will push south over the area but isn't expected to be a weather-maker.
The low level ridging will continue to be the main focus throughout the short-term forecast. Weak southerly flow should make for slightly warmer overnight lows with temperatures generally in the 30s.
Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show mid and high level moisture spreading onshore ahead of the West Coast trough. The mid tropospheric ridge over the Rockies shifts eastward into the Plains today. with the northern portion of the ridge breaking down faster as the closed low tracks across Canada. h5 low pressure over northern California is a little slower and heads toward the four corners area by Tuesday morning. The pressure gradient increases across the Plains and as the low level jet increases. In response to the lowering heights. the cold front advances into northeast Nebraska tonight and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by Tuesday morning.
The low clouds will spread north during the morning hours and make their way to San Angelo by sunrise. Expect the low clouds and fog to dissipate by the late morning as temperatures and winds will disperse the clouds. A strengthening leeside trough over eastern Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient across the area during the afternoon hours. With overnight clouds developing and and ongoing warm air advection, overnight lows will remain warm across the region, with temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Upper level ridge continues to build across the northern Rockies into the northern plains. Upper ridge shifts eastward tonight, with low level thermal ridge located across the forecast area. Upper trof crosses the northern plains Monday, with cold front dropping through forecast area. Flat ridge builds back across the area for Tuesday.
Dry weather is anticipated through the period although moisture is expected to increase beginning tonight as broad high pressure ridge lifts north of the area.
109 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will build into the region from the west through Monday, then move off the coast Tuesday. A cold front will move through late in the week. Broad ridge of high pressure centered over eastern Tennessee will control our weather for the next several days.
347 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Upper ridging is over the region with an upper trough over the west coast that will move east today. The base of the upper trough will move over the area beginning tonight. Winds will weaken later Tuesday prior to a cold front moving into the area resulting in cooler temperatures especially across the northern CWA. The upper trough will move over the region quickly so this will not allow any high wind event in the Guadalupe Mountains to last.
The high will shift east and settle over the area tonight into Monday. Most guidance forecasts easterly or southeasterly flow advecting warmer 925 mb temperatures in northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee during the day on Monday. Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday night into Tuesday, as boundary layer flow becomes southerly or southwesterly and strengthens ahead of a frontal boundary pushing from New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma. The start of the period will mark a transition in the previous pattern as deep layer ridging breaks down ahead of an approaching system, developing over the southern plains.
335 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure continues to build in from the west today. The high will slowly shift off the coast Tuesday.
134 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Except for a few light snow showers over Northern NY, building high pressure will bring fair weather to our region for Monday, while a warming trend is forecast Tuesday afternoon. A weak cold front dropping into our northern forecast area will briefly increase snow shower activity early this morning. Building high pressure will clear skies out late today and for tonight. In addition upper atmospheric ridging will move over NY and PA, with the result being much higher-than-normal thicknesses. Temperatures on Tuesday will climb into the lower and middle-50s.
/issued 743 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017/ Upper trough will linger over the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days as a weak boundary moves through the area overnight and high pressure builds in at the surface. This will turn N/NE winds to the E/NE through mid-week as the high center shifts east. High pressure will build into the area for Monday, and winds and seas will increase a bit for the next couple of days, with an evening easterly wind surge to near cautionary levels for a few hours.
303 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Dry high pressure will build over the area into the middle of the week.
Fair weather will continue, with ridge valley temperature differences noted tonight and again Monday night. The warming trend which begins on Monday will continue on Tuesday with Tuesday afternoon highs forecast in the lower to middle 60s being around 10 degrees warmer than normal.
Expecting min temps to be a few degrees warmer tonight (than this morning) due to lack of fog and presence of LLJ.
A complex long wave high level trof is analyzed east of the Mississippi River Valley with a series of notable short wave impulses moving across the base of the parent trof.
The high resolution NMM is showing this should continue through at least the morning, with winds increasing across SE Fremont County. Tuesday will be dominated by a transitional ridge with cool temps and lighter winds.
Ridge of high pressure currently over the lower Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states will shift eastward today. Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will build into the lower Ohio Valley as upper level flow shifts from northwest today to westerly/southwest Tuesday.
At the surface, winds are moderate from the northeast, and temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 70s. High surface pressure will continue to settle close to the southeastern coast of the US today while a trough in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico pushes further to the west/southwest. The local area will continue under a slow-moving mid-level trough into the middle of the week.
Light southerly winds and some passing cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40s east to the low 50s west this morning. Southerly winds will keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa.
Mid-level troughiness meanders over the southeast U. At the surface a weak boundary exits the area this morning as high pressure centered in the lower Mississippi valley tracks to Mid-Atlantic coastal waters. The high pressure tracking across the southeast quarter of the nation will provide northeasterly lower level flow that becomes easterly tonight and Tue. Temperatures just above normal for the highs today warm to 3-5 degrees above by Tue afternoon.
Warm air advection returns in earnest on Monday as upper ridge builds a bit stronger. Increasing southwest winds should provide a warming regime that could make another run at high temperature records for the area, but some of this will depend on how much cloud cover tops ridge /lots upstream at moment/ and whether strong inversion holds full mixing potential back, even with breezy southwest winds. Sinusoidal wave pattern will mean passing wave with ridge return every day or so. As another weak wave and associated cold front move through the region going into Tuesday morning some questions about extent of precipitation chances.
306 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 /Today and Tonight/ An upper level ridge currently centered to our west will expand across the region today as an upper level trough moves across the western CONUS. The ridge will be squashed beginning late tonight as the trough moves across the Intermountain West. Warm temperatures are expected today and tonight in response to the strengthening ridge overhead. High temperatures today will be in the 70s and lower 80s; the highest temperatures occurring in our western counties. Overnight lows will be significantly warmer than today, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
302 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will dominate the region into Tuesday then shift east to allow a cold front to move through Tuesday night.
High pressure will prevail for the next several days and this will result in sunny/clear skies with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 /plateau/ to middle 60s.
216 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Aviation A couple of cold fronts will move across the state this week and each one will bring a chance of rain.
Warm air advection is significant, and even though mixing is limited initially, it it looks like the trough will move across the region by mid to late afternoon allowing for a more favorable westerly component to the wind direction.
A this occurs, a cold front will drop south through the area.
327 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will support dry weather and warmer temperature through mid week.