Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Upper low currently sitting just inland of the Pacific Northwest will slowly swing its way through the state over the next couple days. It's no surprise that storms are still expected over the coming days, but while we had the moisture and instability as well the last couple days, what we were missing was a lifting mechanism and any type of ascent, which the aforementioned upper low will provide, especially on Thursday and into the night. With PWATs that high, a storm doesn't need to stick around long before it quickly dumps at least an inch of rain within an hour, and up to 3" on the high end.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop over the far northern part of the CWA by late tonight and early Thursday as there will be some increased low level convergence and instability ahead of the front, but the best chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur over northeast Missouri into west central and south central Illinois on Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as the cold front moves down into northern Missouri and central Illinois. Lows tonight will be in the lower-mid 60s with light winds and clear skies. Highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer with southwesterly flow ahead of the front.
The bulk of activity this afternoon and evening will remain south of I- 10 and along the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, where easterly upslope surface flow will aid in convective development. Thursday night will see a similar trend in temperatures, with lows expected to be in the middle 60s and lower 70s for most, a degree or two warmer than what's expected tonight.
An upper level trough is slowly departing eastward, keeping cloud cover over southern and eastern parts of the forecast area. Temperatures continue near normal, slightly higher tomorrow as the upper low slowly departs.
342 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Thunderstorm chances this evening -- Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed across Central Lower Michigan this afternoon in an area over convergence ahead of a cold front. -- Chance for precipitation on Thursday A weak cold front will sag into the forecast area from the northwest on Thursday and bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorm to the area.
1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Another dry and quiet day is on tap for central Illinois with temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge today extends from the Atlantic, across the southwestern half of TX, northward across the 4 Corners region. A low sits over WA and a broad trough is located over the NE States. Should be a little warmer today in the mid to upper 80s but still several degrees below normal.
Lows in the low/mid 60s by tomorrow morning. Highs start to push warmer into the mid/upper 80s with a few more urban locations near 90.
242 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 A seasonal late August afternoon is ongoing with temperatures generally in the lower 80s at 2 PM.
-Additional thunderstorm chances this weekend Discussion: A diffuse area of low pressure is nicely depicted in GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery, centered over northwest Iowa with clouds expanding across Iowa and Minnesota. This evening the primary forcing associated with the low will pass across the area. Should stronger storms develop, winds would be the primary concern owing to drier air in the low levels. Precipitation chances return to the area for the weekend as a trough approaches out of the central and northern plains.
Highs will once again be well below normal, but warmer than yesterday's readings - ranging from mid 80s over the east to low 90s in the south central zones. Any afternoon convection will dissipate by sunset and another tranquil night is expected with most of the low cloud cover dissipating and leaving just some high clouds moving in from West Texas. Lows will bottom out in the low 70s for most locations. Thursday will be almost a repeat of today, except for lower moisture leading to less cloud cover, fewer showers, and slightly warmer high temps.
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The area remains under the influence of high pressure, keeping the forecast for today dry. Thursday will be a little warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Temperatures are currently around the low to upper 80s, depending on how much cloud cover is overhead. Our southern counties have stayed on the cooler side, along with the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau.
We're running just a couple of degrees cooler than expected, so I've adjusted the hourly temperature down a few degrees. (Today through Thursday) Early this Wednesday morning, quiet wx continued across Middle Tennessee under the control of dry high pressure from the north. High pressure will keep most of Middle Tennessee rain-free today, but the front lurking just south of our area will allow a few showers or storms to creep up into our far southern counties. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The weekend will bring warmer temps and slightly higher humidity levels as southerly flow becomes established across the area.
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure passing overhead leads to near average conditions and dry weather through Thursday night.
Quiet weather prevails through the period amid building high pressure.
348 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Light winds and clear skies will continue as 500mb heights gradually rise over the high plains.
Despite the wind shift to the north, surface dewpoint values remain in the low 60s, hence the fog. Clouds linger around the area throughout the day, with chances for isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening as a trough works its way east of the valley. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, with most locations remaining in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Cooler temperatures follow Thursday morning, with morning lows in the mid 40s near the International Border and lower 60s towards west central MN.
1208 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (Today through Thursday) Early this morning through Thursday, a lower level convergence zone, residual outflow boundaries, and weak troughing aloft linger over our area along with slightly above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs) of 1. The highest PWs are along and south of US 90 near the convergence zone and expect the heaviest rains will focus there.
910 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper level low still centered across eastern WA with numerous thunderstorms tracking east from northern ID across N-central MT in diffluent westerly flow downstream of the upper low. This activity should decrease late this morning just before the next round of thunderstorms develops across SW and western MT as the upper low shifts east. Thunderstorm activity this evening is likely to persist overnight again as another upper level disturbance, currently located over the northern Great Basin rotates through the Northern Rockies trough and up across SW and Central MT late tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s expected. (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will be northeast of the region this period.
An upper low to our north will support isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Baker County and the West Central Mountains, while an upper disturbance in Nevada will support isolated showers and thunderstorms across south-central Idaho near the Nevada border.
Cooler temperatures are expected through this weekend as low pressure aloft moves into northern California.
127 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure will remain over the region tonight into Thursday. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. High pressure will be situated over the central Appalachians. The combination of heating and low level convergence could create isolated shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain especially the southwest mountains. The 5h trough over the Gulf Coast states deepens tonight, so enough moisture may override the front allow for an small threat of showers overnight along the southern Blue Ridge. High pressure will exit offshore on Thursday, while a broad upper level trough resides across the East. Scattered showers and storms will develop in the afternoon, especially along the southern Blue Ridge.
The threat for heavy rain continues across the area as a broad upper level trough continues across the southeast.
The marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with periodic coastal drizzle through mid/late week.
101 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 A high pressure system will continue to bring sunny to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to the Ohio Valley through Thursday.
The low level jet increases late tonight from western South Dakota into southeast Montana, and a few CAMS trigger a few showers in that area late tonight / early Thursday morning. The low level jet weakens Thursday morning, though the west begins to feel the influence of the next H5 wave Thursday afternoon, so will hold pops into the afternoon in that area. In general, global ensemble systems appear to be in fairly good agreement in the larger trough's passage, but finer details will still need to be narrowed down as those time periods approach.
Southerly sfc winds and a swly 25-30kt LLJ will develop over northeastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin ahead of the low and associated cold front which will advect warm, moist air into southern Wisconsin helping to push PWATs around 1. This warm, moist air combined with modest skinny CAPE of about 500 J/kg and lift from the surface cold front will allow for shower and storm development overnight and into tomorrow morning beginning around 11pm for western Sauk and Iowa counties.
1006 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Water vapor imagery shows upper ridging centered over the Four Corners. and an upper low over the Pac NW, with west to northwest flow aloft across the region. The upper low will drift eastward on Thursday as it phases back into the main flow.
That being said, some heavy rain is possible across western Georgia late this afternoon as that weak trough emerges out of the south west. Temperatures will be in the low 70s continuing the trend of significantly below average temps for late August.
High pressure in place tonight keeps the skies clear with some patchy fog forming once again. Warmer tomorrow with mostly sunny skies once again. Tonight with clear skies and high pressure in place, fog likely develops again, especially now that the nights are getting longer.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs rising into mainly in the 70s.
The period starts with a high amplitude upper ridge over the western half of the nation with a trof over the Great Lakes.
305 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area.
/Updated at 1247 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022/ Broad ridging aloft remains centered over the Four Corners States while a broad trough is centered over the Tennessee Valley region. Abundant moisture through much of the atmospheric column along with sufficient divergent forcing aloft and enough convergence in the lower levels has resulted in several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of our Southwest Counties. Winds today will be from the southeast at 3-6 mph while highs will range from the upper 70s southwest to the lower 80s elsewhere. Winds will be light overnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s areawide.
1225 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Upper ridge is currently sitting on the lee side of the Rockies this afternoon, and an upper low over the pacific NW.
The main threat from storms continues to be the high water content available in the atmosphere, which lends to heavy downpours and areas of heavy rainfall leading to potential flash flooding. The area with the highest confidence in this occurring is northwest Montana, but additional areas could also be added to this threat as time passes.
Clearer skies and increasing heights, from the eastward expanding ridge to our west, will result in afternoon temperatures a degree or two warmer than we saw today.
This is due to where weak troughing will remain over parts of northern Louisiana, maintaining a moist environment and muggy conditions. By tomorrow, slightly thinner cloud cover will allow for slightly warmer maximum temperatures in the upper 80s. The moist environment will remain in place overnight tomorrow (dew points in the lower 70s once again) after the rain subsides, with light winds and more sporadic cloud cover allowing minimum temperatures to fall back into the lower 70s.
210 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The PAH CWFA currently sits just north of an inverted surface trof from southern AR up across west TN.
The PAH CWFA currently sits just north of an inverted surface trof from southern AR up across west TN.
ERVIN A seasonal late August afternoon is ongoing with temperatures generally in the lower 80s at 2 PM.
614 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure and dry air remain settled over the area. This combined with slight expansion of the upper level high to the west results in warmer temperatures across the area. High temperatures look to reach the upper 80s into the low 90s to close out the week.
934 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Quiet conditions prevail across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys at this hour as high pressure overhead is sandwiched between two disturbances: one across the Gulf states and the other across the upper Midwest. As we head through the remainder of the overnight hours, expect temperatures to drop into the low-to-mid 60s as light winds and mostly clear skies contribute to peak radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the low/mid 60s by tomorrow morning. Highs start to push warmer into the mid/upper 80s with a few more urban locations near 90.
729 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure tonight will keep the skies clear with some patchy fog forming again. It will be warmer Thursday with mostly sunny skies.
A dry cold front will then bring some interior cooling and perhaps less persistent coastal stratus this weekend.
The main upper trough was still back to our west, therefore, this convective activity will continue slowly eastward this evening.
-- Thunderstorm chances this evening -- Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed across Central Lower Michigan this afternoon in an area over convergence ahead of a cold front. -- Chance for precipitation on Thursday A weak cold front will sag into the forecast area from the northwest on Thursday and bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorm to the area.
Latest GEFS 2m temp plumes indicate lows will be very similar to last night, ranging from the mid 50s in the coolest valleys of the Alleghenies, to the mid 60s in the more urbanized spots of the Lower Susq Valley. Rain-free conditions are forecast through Thursday, with neutral height tendencies aloft, and weak ridging at the surface.
450 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 With the upper low centered over Washington State, instability and lift continue to rotate through ahead of it into the northern Rockies. While this wave is expected to move through by noon Thursday, there will still be enough instability to bubble up more showers on the higher elevations of northern WY during the afternoon. There will be westerly flow across the region as a shallow trough slides eastward through northern WY.
915 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area.
758 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Aviation -- Thunderstorm chances this evening -- Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed across Central Lower Michigan this afternoon in an area over convergence ahead of a cold front. -- Chance for precipitation on Thursday A weak cold front will sag into the forecast area from the northwest on Thursday and bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorm to the area.
515 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Upper ridge is currently sitting on the lee side of the Rockies this afternoon, and an upper low over the pacific NW.
Light winds and clear skies will continue as 500mb heights gradually rise over the high plains.
659 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure passing overhead leads to near average conditions and dry weather through Thursday night.
304 PM PDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Seasonably hot and dry weather continues through the work week, cooler over the weekend. At Travis AFB it was 88 degrees at 2 pm, 11 degrees cooler than the same time yesterday.
621 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area.
350 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The slow-moving upper level low-pressure system now over Washington State will continue to be the main driver for precipitation chances for our area over the next several days.
A seasonal late August afternoon is ongoing with temperatures generally in the lower 80s at 2 PM.
1027 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Currently - A broad midlatitude trough remains anchored over the eastern United States. As a result, the western flank of the surface through mid level Atlantic ridge is rather weak across Florida. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain within the weak southwestern flank of the Atlatnic ridge overnight. Overnight lows will settle in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. A broad ridge across Florida and the southeast will maintain light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes.
252 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 SPC mesoanalysis had a weak area of low pressure over NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin with a corridor of low-level (sfc-925mb) warm air and moisture advection juxtaposed to the south/southeast. Today: Warm and humid conditions are expected with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints well into the 60s. A weak cold front or wind shift will work through the area early, taking the better chances for afternoon/evening storm redevelopment to our south and southeast. There is still a low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or storm to pop up during peak afternoon heating, favored along the highway 20 corridor in association with a weak secondary wind shift. Tonight: High pressure will build in resulting in quiet conditions and light winds.
226 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Across the region this afternoon, sunny skies abound as high pressure sits over the area. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis overlaid on mid level water vapor imagery is continuing to show a broad ridge stretching from the Rockies out into the Plains region.
Discussion: A broad shallow trough continues over the eastern US aloft. Some weak short wave energy will move through the trough and approach our area later today/tonight.
(Today and tonight) A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the region this morning while an upper trough is over the eastern sections of the country, similar to yesterday and the day before.
1150 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 With the upper low centered over Washington State, instability and lift continue to rotate through ahead of it into the northern Rockies. While this wave is expected to move through by noon Thursday, there will still be enough instability to bubble up more showers on the higher elevations of northern WY during the afternoon. There will be westerly flow across the region as a shallow trough slides eastward through northern WY.
338 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Few weather impacts today with 1024mb high pressure building into the region underneath the northwest flow aloft. Lows will be in the low 50s with the possibility of a few spots falling into the upper 40s in the trees of MN where winds remain light the longest under the departing high pressure.
07Z water vapor imagery continued to show broad cyclonic flow over central Canada and the Great Lakes region while a cutoff upper low drifted over the northern Rockies. A broad area of high pressure was noted over the southern Rockies and southwest U. The deep mixing and good insolation today is expected to help afternoon temps reach the lower and middle 90s.
24hr MinT trends are +5-10F warmer with lows in the 60-70F range (+5-10F above normal).
452 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Aloft, upper level ridging over the desert southwest will begin to be deamplified by a series of vorticity maxima moving through the base of a trough located over the northern and Canadian Rockies followed by a slight shift of the ridge eastward toward the forecast area tonight.
Current temperatures in the island chain are in the low to mid 80s, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Surveying the synoptic environment, the midlatitude trough is now located east of Canada with is associated frontal boundary extending all the way to the Florida Peninsula. This trough is responsible of the weakening of the North Atlantic high pressure, leaving the Florida Keys under the influence of a weak ridge.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 87 70 90 / 50 20 60 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 88 68 91 / 30 10 50 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 69 87 68 90 / 30 10 50 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 86 65 88 / 20 10 60 10 40.
Further east across NW IA/SW MN, more efficient radiational cooling conditions may allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s.
A few showers could wrap around the northern edge of this trough and move into the forecast area during the early morning hours, with the better chances (40-50%) south of the Tennessee River.
1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area.
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Expect storms on Thursday to be similar to today with initiation off the high terrain features by mid-morning and then spreading across much of the region by the afternoon.
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure will dissipate overhead through today while a weakening front remains offshore. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic during this time.
(Today and tonight) No significant change to the weather pattern today as Oklahoma and north Texas will be between a mid-level trough to the southeast and a mid-level ridge to the west. The sensible weather impact will be a continuation of typical, late August weather with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and diurnally-driven cumulus clouds. With the trough/mid-level weakness still in close proximity, isolated convection can't be ruled out once again this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and north Texas--but coverage should be even less than yesterday (if any convection does develop).
Quiet conditions prevail across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys at this hour as high pressure overhead is sandwiched between two disturbances: one across the Gulf states and the other across the upper Midwest. As we head through the remainder of the overnight hours, expect temperatures to drop into the low-to-mid 60s as light winds and mostly clear skies contribute to peak radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the low/mid 60s by tomorrow morning. Highs start to push warmer into the mid/upper 80s with a few more urban locations near 90.
1050 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Upper ridge is currently sitting on the lee side of the Rockies this afternoon, and an upper low over the pacific NW.
250 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front will spread into the area today, bringing scattered showers and storms.
(Today) The weak mid level area of low pressure that has been talked about the past couple of days resided a little further southeast. while some mid clouds wrapping around the low were still spreading over parts of far Southeast Oklahoma. With this weak area of low pressure and deeper moisture further east and southeast today. There could be a couple isolated showers and or thunderstorm in the higher terrain of far Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
The low is progd to move east today with very little shear associated with it. High pressure will build in behind the trailing cold front tonight, but there isn't much cold air behind it.