Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/TW/ Today and tonight: Upper ridging will amplify as it translates from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the period. This will occur as strong Pacific jet energy diving into the Pacific Northwest carves out a deep trough across the Great Basin. Warming low-level temperatures will result in noticeably warmer high temperatures today in the mid to upper 90s. Deep boundary layer moisture evident on last night's 00z JAN sounding will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s despite efficient mixing.
A warm front extends southeast from this low across eastern ND into western MN while a cold front extends west-southwest across central and southwest ND. Given the mid-lvl ridge still in place overhead and southerly flow in place, a warm and humid day can be expected with afternoon readings in the 80s. A s/w mid-lvl impulse is progged to ride up and over the top of the ridge from WY into SD in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft this evening into tonight. To start the period there'll be a strong for the time of year upper trof moving slowly through the Rockies, northeast toward sc Canada.
Excessive heat will continue today with slightly cooler temperatures through the first half of the week due to a weather system passing north of the area.
The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS yesterday is pivoting into the Canadian Maritimes, while the weakness over the Gulf is spreading southwest into Mexico. The entire profile is dry, despite the legitimate veering through the lower and mid troposphere. A weakened ridge axis stretching west across South Florida will lift northward and strengthen tonight and Monday.
739 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected today with the passage of a cold front. An amplifying ridge over the Great Lakes will build east during the short term period, providing mostly dry weather during this time.
/issued 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022/ The upper high that centered over west Texas yesterday is expected to remain in place today, resulting in not much change in thicknesses than what we saw yesterday. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures than we saw yesterday and a good potential for the 105F daily record high at both Lubbock and Childress to be broken by 4 to 6 degrees. The subtropical ridge will be centered over the southeastern CONUS by Monday morning.
(Rest of Today) Morning analysis depicts a building ridge over Texas and Oklahoma around daybreak today. Models continue to hold off the center of this upper ridge to our west through the day today. However, the ridge is forecast to intensify and shift eastward from Texas into Arkansas today. This would suggest highs in the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values around 100 degrees still look possible in northwestern Alabama later this afternoon as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s.
231 AM PDT Sun Jun 12 2022 High pressure aloft will weaken through Monday as a trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. Gusty westerly winds will develop over the mountains and deserts today through Monday, then weaken as the trough moves farther east.
628 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Upper ridging remains from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a series of upper impulses sliding across the Central Rockies. While this will push the higher dewpoints east, it will increase mixing and bring even warmer temps for Mon afternoon, with many locations topping 100. Heat advisory still looks good for today as the higher dewpoints stick around for one more day. As the trough continues east, a weak cold front will slowly work south into northern KS and will eventually become stalled across southern KS for the Wed-Thu time frame. Confidence remains high that above normal temps will continue through these extended periods with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
542 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (Today through Monday) The center of a 500 mb ridge remains situated over West Texas early this morning. The ridge axis will shift eastward into the Tennessee Valley by Monday, with temperatures "cooling off" just a few degrees across the board.
We continued to stick close to the NBM temperatures today and used the higher ConsShort dewpoints. A strong 500mb ridge will be centered across the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians Tues-Wed.
1044 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected today with the passage of a cold front. The most widespread showers will likely be with a pre-frontal trough, just ahead of an approaching cold front. An amplifying ridge over the Great Lakes will build east during the short term period, providing mostly dry weather during this time.
Upper trough that caused this activity will be east of the area Monday.
Temperature wise, most of the area will fall into the low to mid 60s tonight. On Monday, a warm front is expected to lift northward through the day across the region. A moist airmass, steep mid-level lapse rates, and extreme instability will be in place, but a strong cap associated with the incoming ridge may hinder convection.
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (Today through Monday) The center of a 500 mb ridge remains situated over West Texas early this morning. The ridge axis will shift eastward into the Tennessee Valley by Monday, with temperatures "cooling off" just a few degrees across the board.
The mid/upper level ridge will begin to shift to the east on Monday, so not expecting temps/heat indices to be quite as high as today for Monday, still plenty hot though.
Still appears that the highest indices will be located in the Arkansas River Valley where the heaviest rains previously occurred with light winds/less boundary layer mixing.
Warm temps are nosing into the area this afternoon under sunny skies and the longwave ridge building across the Great Plains. Convection developing over the higher terrain of Colorado and Wyoming is producing some supercellular storms now. As the ridge axis passes overhead on Monday, temps will peak at or above 100 for the majority of the area.
(This evening through Monday) On Monday, the upper level ridge is forecast to shift east, becoming centered across the Southeast United States.
Much drier air building in with this high, helping scatter out the earlier low clouds. High Impact Weather Potential: Thunder late Monday over southern portions of forecast area? Northern Michigan will begin this period under high pressure with precipitation free conditions. Clouds will be on the cold side of a warm front draped across the Indiana/Michigan border and moisture spilling over the ridge set up just to the west of the Great Lakes. An upper level trough will move overhead at peak daytime heating, aiding in lift along and north of said warm front. Clouds will be on the decrease behind this system, although chances for pop-up showers and thunderstorms may continue as a very warm and somewhat humid airmass will be over northern Michigan under the aformentioned upper level ridge as it continues it's slow progression eastward.
Mid-level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern through the short term. Dewpoint temperatures will make it feel warmer with heat indices in the the 100s for most of the CWA, but remain below Heat Advisory criteria.
(This evening through Monday Night) Well that recent and much needed rain in the soil is holding and it's not so bad on air temps with a big range and many current heat index readings still only in the low one hundreds for portions of the four state area. Current air temp readings range in the lower 90s for most areas north of I-20 except in Texas where dew points have mixed out a bit more.
The hot weather is due to an upper level ridge which is currently centered across the southern Plains. This ridge will continue to build eastward tonight and Monday.
Some lingering winds and warm temperatures tomorrow in our southwestern areas before a cold front sweeps through and briefly cools things down. Another hot day across the area, though temperatures are a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. Temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler on Monday will bring a slight increase in relative humidity.
Southwest flow increases Monday as an upper level trough moves over the Northern Rockies. Over the plains, gusts to 35 mph are expected with up to 50 mph possible over the higher terrain. Monday night begins with a cold front that will provide welcome relief from Monday's heat.
Warmer tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s in the Tennessee Valley. ECMWF has a strong ridge over the region tomorrow. The warming trend will continue tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s expected in the Tennessee Valley.
Near-record heat is anticipated mid-week under an amplified ridge. The loss of heating will allow the stronger convection to wane overnight but the presence of the cold front in place will keep some showers and thunderstorms over the area through the overnight as the forcing in place will likely be enough to keep activity going. First, going into the day on Monday, building ridging will hinder showers and thunderstorm development during the morning.
1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Upper ridging remains from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a series of upper impulses sliding across the Central Rockies. While this will push the higher dewpoints east, it will increase mixing and bring even warmer temps for Mon afternoon, with many locations topping 100. Heat advisory still looks good for today as the higher dewpoints stick around for one more day. As the trough continues east, a weak cold front will slowly work south into northern KS and will eventually become stalled across southern KS for the Wed-Thu time frame. Confidence remains high that above normal temps will continue through these extended periods with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 96 75 97 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 93 75 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 94 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 92 70 95 71 / 10 20 20 20 10.
Otherwise, a hot day is expected across the region temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s and heat index value reaching above 105 degrees. The morning clouds and the possibility of some SHRAs/TSRAs complicates the forecast today with regards to heat across eastern sections of the Mid-South Meanwhile strong upper ridging will be building in from the SW with very humid air advecting in on SSW surface winds. This looks like the hottest, most uncomfortable day, as a 595dm upper ridge is centered over the area along with a very humid airmass.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Warmer and quiet afternoon so far, but keeping an eye on some disturbances to our north.
Today, the upper trough will continue to push a band of moderate to heavy rain across northeast OR and far southeast WA later this evening. That said, could still expect a couple of isolated thunderstorms to develop with the upper trough axis passage this afternoon and evening. Breezy west to southwest winds will also develop with the upper trough passage this afternoon, and will stay elevated through tonight. Behind the upper trough passage, precipitation chances will retreat to the mountains overnight, with cooler and drier conditions settling into the lower elevations.
There will be mainly two areas to keep an eye on overnight - one through the Highway 14 corridor northward and then to the south through the central and lower MO River Valley. This will bring increasing low level moisture as dew points climb into the lower 70s by Monday afternoon as a warm front lifts through the area. Latest guidance has come in even warmer for Monday, with locales in the lower Mo River corridor topping out near 100 degrees, while back to the north lower to mid 90s will be the rule.
Cloud cover has filtered back over the area, which has leveled out temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in the southwest, and in the low to mid 80s across the rest of eastern Kentucky. The main synoptic feature affecting the region is the broadening upper ridge centered over the south Central and Gulf States.
1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 High pressure will continue over the area through the period. Today Through Monday Night A ridge of high pressure will build over Arkansas today, and will give us our first real taste of summer. The ridge will drift toward the Tennessee Valley on Monday. A Heat Advisory may be required in eastern sections of the state closest to the ridge, but will likely not be needed farther west.
It could be much warmer across southern MN if the warm front can begin lifting north sooner.
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread northward across the Northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
Now if the low stratus hangs around into the afternoon our chances for severe weather will decrease. An upper level low will continue to lift into Canada placing North Dakota directly underneath.
Cooler conditions with a bit of light rain from the San Francisco area and northward.
A warm front will lift through Monday afternoon into Monday night with the opportunity for a more organized area of showers and storms to move through.
For tonight, lows will range from the lower 70s in the Hill Country to the upper 70s elsewhere. The high pressure system responsible for our oppressive heat is expected to shift to the east for tomorrow with a weak trough moving into South Texas. Right now not anticipating the need for a Heat Advisory for tomorrow, but if temperatures are a bit warmer than forecasted, especially south of San Antonio, one may be needed. Lows tomorrow night will be a bit warmer with a higher coverage of low clouds expected overnight.
Highs are likely to be about 2-3 degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today, with dew points expected to be a few degrees lower as well.
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 High pressure to the south has started to build northward and will continue to lift overnight and settle across the area on Monday as the upper trough continues to lift out and an upper high settles over the SE US. This ridging set up will continue through at least mid-week, and bring some warm conditions, with heat indices approaching advisory levels in some locations as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s potentially and HIs approach 108.
Low level ridging will lift northward from near South Florida into north-central Florida tonight and Monday. A cold front spilling southeast from the Carolinas will reconfigure the ridging over the western North Atlantic, but with no real change to the gradient across the Keys. Moisture surges riding west along the southern flank of the ridge will result in slightly better chances, while slugs of scavenged SAL-air will lower chances slightly.
(This evening through Monday) Models in good agreement with high amplitude upper troughs passing over the northern and central portions of the CONUS tonight and tomorrow, with mid and upper level ridge settling a little farther east tomorrow. A few CAMS still want to bring elevated storms toward extreme northwest Oklahoma, on the southern periphery of forcing from s/wv trough moving across the central Rockies.
13/00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl prevail as high pressure aloft persists ovr the region.
625 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (This evening through Monday) Models in good agreement with high amplitude upper troughs passing over the northern and central portions of the CONUS tonight and tomorrow, with mid and upper level ridge settling a little farther east tomorrow. A few CAMS still want to bring elevated storms toward extreme northwest Oklahoma, on the southern periphery of forcing from s/wv trough moving across the central Rockies.
1046 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 A cold front moving through the state tonight will stall out just south of the state and return northward as a warm front.
An upper ridge will continue to build into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians the next 24 hours. Can not rule out an isolated storm to develop over southwest Virginia and northern half of Tennessee as weak impulses may ride southeast on the top of the upper ridge but confidence is too low to include. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated as an upper ridge builds into the Tennessee valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 96 75 97 74 / 0 20 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 93 75 96 75 / 0 20 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 94 75 98 74 / 10 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 92 70 94 71 / 0 40 20 20 10.
Later this evening, the cold front sweep through, bringing much cooler non-summer temperatures back to the region. Wraparound flow will continue to produce rainfall tonight into Monday, with modest accumulation in the higher elevations. Temperatures across Yellowstone NP will fall below freezing, so some accumulating snowfall is possible late Monday night.
with the low level ridge axis lifting northward Mon, ECSB should form earlier and push father inland, thus have confined mention of VCTS to the interior plus DAB, as well as delaying onset to 19Z-21Z.
/16/ (This evening through Monday Night) Well that recent and much needed rain in the soil is holding and it's not so bad on air temps with a big range and many current heat index readings still only in the low one hundreds for portions of the four state area. Current air temp readings range in the lower 90s for most areas north of I-20 except in Texas where dew points have mixed out a bit more.
929 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 A cold front moving through the state tonight will stall out just south of the state and return northward as a warm front.
643 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Warmer and quiet afternoon so far, but keeping an eye on some disturbances to our north.
625 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Well that recent and much needed rain in the soil is holding and it's not so bad on air temps with a big range and many current heat index readings still only in the low one hundreds for portions of the four state area. Current air temp readings range in the lower 90s for most areas north of I-20 except in Texas where dew points have mixed out a bit more.
The upper trough will allow colder air to move into the area and snow levels are forecast to lower down to around 4500-5500 feet late this evening into tonight. Tonight into Monday morning, the cooler air mass over the area combined with partial clearing and light winds will result in a dip in temperatures with freezing temperatures expected across the east side on Monday.
(Tonight) The vast ridge across the ArkLaTex region will slowly shift eastward tonight. Dry conditions are anticipated to persist through the night, however a few models are showing a weak disturbance rounding the ridge and bringing a few showers to NE AL after 09Z. Temps are currently in the 80s (20Z) and lows will only reach the low/mid 70s with muggy dewpoints in the 70s sticking around through the night.
An upper trough will maintain a slight chance of showers for the next few days.
Lows tonight won't fall too much with most places in the low to mid 70s. Be safe out there this week if you must be outdoors! (This afternoon through Monday Night) Warmer and quiet afternoon so far, but keeping an eye on some disturbances to our north.
Showers will continue to taper off through the evening, with cooler overnight temperatures expected. Cooler temperatures are expected again late in the week along with a return of light rain to the North Coast. The upper trough responsible for the weekend rains and cooler temperatures will shift E on Monday, with temperatures gradually warming through mid-week.
606 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 (This evening through Monday) On Monday, the upper level ridge is forecast to shift east, becoming centered across the Southeast United States.
At 8 PM MDT the heavier showers and most thunderstorms have moved east of our area but a cold front was still along the OR/ID border and moving east.
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Pattern transition day today as expected with E Gulf upper trough weakening allowing upper ridging to build into the region from the S Plains thru the Gulf. Surface pressure gradient weakening as ridge axis over FL Straits starts northward progression. /issued 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022/ High pressure to the south has started to build northward and will continue to lift overnight and settle across the area on Monday as the upper trough continues to lift out and an upper high settles over the SE US. This ridging set up will continue through at least mid-week, and bring some warm conditions, with heat indices approaching advisory levels in some locations as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s potentially and HIs approach 108.
Even though an upper ridge builds to our west this week week, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible as we get into a warm and humid stretch with multiple opportunities for storms. Still a few tiny cells over the N along the cold front, and a wider but weakening area of showers over Ern OH/SWrn PA moving toward the Laurels. Fair and seasonable conditions look probable Monday, as high pressure and drier air mass build southeast into Pa. Will maintain a slight chance of PM convection over the southern tier counties, closest to stalled cold front south of the Mason Dixon Line.
Cumulus cloud lines tried to develop along the middle and lower Keys, with one lone shower briefly developing just north of the lower Keys, but was quickly stifled. The Atlantic ridge is nosing into the area, with the axis of the ridge overhead. As the evening progresses, the axis of the ridge will begin to lift slowly to our north, which will organize flow out of the southeast from 5 to 10 knots. Light and variable winds will slowly give way to light to gentle southeasterly flow as the axis of the Atlantic ridge lifts northward.
The upper level trough of last week, which added plenty of moisture to an already moist southwest flow, will finally lift out of the area. High pressure will begin to settle over the area today.
The low-level jet keeps southerly winds elevated at most terminals overnight with a few gusts possible.
At 300 am CDT, there were quite a few places across Arkansas with temperatures in the lower 80s, and plenty of dewpoints were in the mid to upper 70s. A ridge of high pressure was over us this morning, and will shift a bit toward the Tennessee Valley later today into Tuesday. With the shift may come slightly lower dewpoints away from the ridge in western sections of the state. The highest dewpoints will be in eastern Arkansas, and this is where conditions will be downright dangerous today.
(Today) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions are expected today, as a strong upper ridge axis becomes centered over the central TN Valley. High pressure at the sfc also remains located east of the area across the central/southern Atlantic Coasts, which is thereby helping to usher moisture below H7 into much of the region from the S/SW. With dew pts in the lower/mid 70s, max heat indices also look to climb into the 103-107F range.
Southwest flow increases Monday as an upper level trough moves over the Northern Rockies. Over the plains, gusts to 35 mph are expected with up to 50 mph possible over the higher terrain. Monday night begins with a cold front that will provide welcome relief from Monday's heat. High temperatures Tuesday will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than Mondays, with near normal highs on the plains and near to below normal in the mountains. An upper level low pressure area will move slowly along the Montana/Canada border through mid week.
The strong ridge overhead will suppress most thunderstorm activity, but short range models continue to show isolated thunderstorm potential mainly for the Upper Cumberland. Models show isolated rain potential in our far southeast corner, but once again the strong ridge will suppress deep convection for most areas.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will be moving east today, allowing temperatures to fall a few degrees. South winds will be increasing today as a lee trough strengthens along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Lows tonight fall a couple degrees, into the lower to mid 70s, with mixing from surface winds keeping temperatures up.