Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For this evening, the greatest chance of rain will be over the mountains and adjacent foothills as the higher terrain helps to initiate convective activity. The thunderstorms can then move off the higher terrain over to the plains before diminishing due to some warmer air aloft/capping. It appears that shower and thunderstorm coverage should then be a bit greater on Sunday as a larger-scale upper trough moves over the region. Models continue to advertise general northwest flow pattern over the northern Rockies to start the week, evolving into more westerly flow but with deepening upper low evolving over the northern plains. Temperatures start off the week in the 70s to low 80s, but cool into the 60s and lower 70s toward the end of the week, as the upper lows cooling influence and cloud cover takes over.
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Convection from storms to our north will help push a weak cold front into the Permian Basin today. The front will remain in the area Monday and southeasterly winds will push the dryline west, but an upper level ridge will create subsidence and may prevent storm development.
This front will take a few degrees off the high temperatures Sunday afternoon mainly across the Permian Basin. Slightly cooler conditions look to last into Monday with a chance of storms as the front hangs around the area. Ridging builds in by midweek and temperatures will respond in a big way. A mid level thermal ridge is forecast to sit over the region possibly into the weekend.
228 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Southerly return flow will result in much warmer and more humid conditions returning today and lasting all week.
327 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a baggy trough in the Rockies and troughing over the northern plains and Canadian Rockies this morning. The trough in the northern plains moves into the upper Great lakes by 00z Mon.
/issued 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/ Storm development is expected to continue in the high plains of eastern NM and CO and then near a dryline in the Panhandles into west TX.
454 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level lows over northern Quebec and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba resulting in westerly flow from the northern plains through the Great Lakes. Tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions with sfc ridging into the area will again allow temps to drop into the lower 40s inland which may allow some patchy shallow fog to develop.
As a trough deepens into the lower MS Valley tonight and Monday.
While magnitude of low level jet is a bit questionable, thinking this may be offset by boundary and/or upper low circulation either over or just south of southeast KS.
This results in highs still reaching the lower 80s over the southern 1/3 of the area, and the mid 70s in the central (I-80) counties, and finally, in the north, upper 60s are set, as there is slight CAA there.
Highs today will range from the lower 70s in south central Lower Michigan to around 80 into central Indiana. Intense Gulf of Alaska vortex finally undercuts northeast stream block, leading to trough development over Plains by midweek.
Afternoon temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 80s.
On Monday a midlevel trough axis that extends from the Great Basin up to the Northern Plains will begin to slide through the region. The trough should provide more ascent than the previous days therefore the coverage should be scattered to widespread. Given the forcing is relatively marginal the higher terrain will be favored, but these showers and storms could move into the valleys. The trough axis actually passes through Monday night therefore some of the convection may continue into the overnight.
234 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area through much of the week. Weak pressure ridge over the area will be weakening through the day as southerly flow increases. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low 90s for highs with overnight lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s. The warming trend will continue with high temperatures into the lower 90s, and Monday night lows in the lower 70s.
402 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 A cold front will approach the area from the north today.
This low stratus deck is also producing some light drizzle across portions of north central and northeast North Dakota. This cloud deck may linger all day across north central and northeast North Dakota, keeping high temperatures in the lower 60s in these areas. The rest of western and central North Dakota should experience partly to mostly sunny skies, with warmer temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Although much of western and central North Dakota looks to stay dry for most of the day, the 00z GFS/EURO show an upper level impulse or two rotating around a closed upper level low centered over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The best chance for showers and storms will be across southwest North Dakota where instability will be the highest.
449 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Under partly cloudy skies and a steady east to southeast wind near 15 mph with occasional gusts of around 20 mph, temperatures are in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Elsewhere, only isolated showers are being picked up on the distant waters beyond 20 nm south of the Lower and Middle Keys.
125 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a baggy trough in the Rockies and troughing over the northern plains and Canadian Rockies this morning. The trough in the northern plains moves into the upper Great lakes by 00z Mon.
However, the actual cold front remains across northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. As we move into the late afternoon a upper level trough will move into the region. Models suggest this feature will provide enough forcing for storms to develop along and south of the cold front. Through Sunday night into Monday the surface front remains over the southern CWA as the upper level trough slowly moves across southern Missouri. This will continue thunderstorm chances across the southern CWA through Monday night when the upper level trough finally shifts east of the area. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Monday.
328 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area through much of the week. Weak pressure ridge over the area will be weakening through the day as southerly flow increases. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low 90s for highs with overnight lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s. Limiting factors for convection continues to be surface and upper ridge offshore extending into the area with resulting mid level capping. Triggers for convection remain limited mainly associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont trough. Will continue with isolated afternoon storms with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures slightly above normal in the low 70s.
Expect winds to veer around to the NW at all terminals as a weak cold front pushes into the area, first reaching CNM/HOB prior to daybreak, and gradually progressing south to FST by around 18Z. This front will take a few degrees off the high temperatures Sunday afternoon mainly across the Permian Basin. Slightly cooler conditions look to last into Monday with a chance of storms as the front hangs around the area. Ridging builds in by midweek and temperatures will respond in a big way. A mid level thermal ridge is forecast to sit over the region possibly into the weekend.
A few degrees of warming is expected for mainly inland areas on Sunday as high pressure begins to build near the West Coast.
A cold front to the northwest of the state will slowly approach during this period.
327 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 High pressure over the western Atlantic exhibits an elongated axis that extends slightly north of our CWA, providing light southeasterly flow. At the same time, the mid-upper level pattern will be mired by weak troughing with a series of embedded impulses propagating across the peninsula.
It still appears the better chance for convective development will be on the higher terrain features and mainly across the northern part of the forecast area.
Latest guidance suggesting limited potential for nocturnal shower development with moisture less robust in the low levels. At the surface a ridge is stretched from the Atlantic into the southeast states while low pressure over over the Texas Panhandle. The gradient between the ridge and low is keeping the local area in a moderate onshore flow which has returned higher moisture values when compared to yesterday and the day before. Weak troughing aloft is expected to remain in place through mid week while more weak short waves pass. Weak ridging is then expected to occur over the area by the end of the week which will decrease rain chances. The pressure gradient between the low over the TX panhandle and the Atlantic ridge will remain fairly tight through tonight and early Sunday Morning.
otherwise expecting dry and warmer areawide. Temperatures across the forecast area range from the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. The ridge never effectively builds into the region, suggesting that the mesoscale will dominate this period.
High pressure over the area with clouds filtering in from the west this afternoon. A low pressure center over Iowa will slowly move east and bring precipitation to a good portion of the forecast area. Chances for showers remain on Sunday as an upper level trough continues its pivot around the Northern Plains.
Have therefore included 20 POPS along the trough axis today into this evening where short-term models prog weak destabilization (0-3KM MUCAPES circa 1000 J/KG).
Temperatures will be cooler than normal today, but gradually warm back towards normal this week.
Surface analysis indicates high pressure situated off the SE US coast and a stalled frontal boundary to the northwest of the region.
The Pacific High has been ridging into the northern Rockies for a few days now, but it is starting to lose the battle with a strong upper level low migrating across the northern Pacific.
747 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level lows over northern Quebec and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba resulting in westerly flow from the northern plains through the Great Lakes. Tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions with sfc ridging into the area will again allow temps to drop into the lower 40s inland which may allow some patchy shallow fog to develop.
At the surface, low pressure trof is located across the eastern Dakotas with high pressure over the northern Rockies. With the cooler temperatures, instability and shear will be weak to marginal, and so not expecting much for severe weather at this time.
Upper low just NE of CWA will keep things mainly cloudy and cool for the afternoon for the NE zones, where temps will not reach the 70s. TFJ Today will feature scattered showers and general thunderstorms across northeast Montana, especially in the afternoon hours while a cold front tracks through the vicinity. After a cool start to the day, look for seasonable temperatures by Monday afternoon and mainly dry conditions developing as high pressure builds into the region.
A weak cold front is moving into the area, and will result in a N/NE wind shift as it progresses south to FST by this afternoon. /issued 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ Convection from storms to our north will help push a weak cold front into the Permian Basin today. The front will remain in the area Monday and southeasterly winds will push the dryline west, but an upper level ridge will create subsidence and may prevent storm development.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 88 70 / 30 20 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 70 85 68 / 30 20 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 85 69 / 30 30 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 66 84 65 / 30 30 60 30.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada today.
649 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Weak surface pressure ridge over the region will weaken today with southerly flow ushering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area through much of the week. Weak pressure ridge over the area will be weakening through the day as southerly flow increases. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low 90s for highs with overnight lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s. Limiting factors for convection continues to be surface and upper ridge offshore extending into the area with resulting mid level capping. Triggers for convection remain limited mainly associated with a potential sea breeze front and Piedmont trough. Will continue with isolated afternoon storms with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures slightly above normal in the low 70s.
/issued 327 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ High pressure over the western Atlantic exhibits an elongated axis that extends slightly north of our CWA, providing light southeasterly flow. At the same time, the mid-upper level pattern will be mired by weak troughing with a series of embedded impulses propagating across the peninsula.
A weak 850 mb trough on the western periphery of a larger ridge of high pressure, helps advect deeper moisture further north toward the FL/GA line. Dewpoint temperatures across the I-10 corridor have increased 4-5 degrees with many locations seeing Td of 73-75 degrees, indicating the low levels have indeed moistened. Temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s for inland areas with coastal areas staying in the upper 80s due to the sea- breeze providing more maritime air. Low level air mass remains very moist overnight leading to area wide low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for Monday morning. With a ridge of high pressure to the east, expect light winds to continue this morning before increasing near the coast as the east coast sea-breeze moves inland.
These storms should remain mainly over the higher terrain but due to the upper level trough that is moving through the area tomorrow, storms are expected to survive longer as they move into the plains. High temperatures will remain in the high 60s to mid 70s for Sunday and Monday.
A weak mid level weakness off the SW FL coast will continue to stream deep moisture over the forecast area with S/SE winds in the low to mid layers.
The higher moisture content and strong heating will lead to the development of some showers and thunderstorms today; mainly later this afternoon into the evening.
321 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Today will feature scattered showers and general thunderstorms across northeast Montana, especially in the afternoon hours while a cold front tracks through the vicinity. After a cool start to the day, look for seasonable temperatures by Monday afternoon and mainly dry conditions developing as high pressure builds into the region.
216 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a closed low over southern Saskatchewan. This low moves east to the upper Great Lakes on Mon.
Otherwise for remainder of tonight through Monday, isolated/ scattered showers and storms will develop across the region in proximity to the stalled cold front. So cooler temperatures on Monday with highs only in the mid 70s to low 80s.
/Issued 1134 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ MCV from early morning convective complex seems to have been absorbed into main mid level trough over the Southern Plains and has shifted slightly northward over the past few hours into sern KS.
Breaks of sunshine have helped temps rise into the low 80s in the Lower Susq Valley early this aftn, with dewpoints having risen into the mid 60s. Visibilities dropping to MVFR and as low as LIFR at KBFD is in store overnight with the low level moisture present and a waggling frontal boundary in the vicinity.
On Monday afternoon isolated thunderstorms are expected to again form over the same area in response to a slightly deeper trough.
430 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. with a closed low over southern Saskatchewan. This low moves east to the upper Great Lakes on Mon.
Meanwhile, as we move into early tomorrow, an upper level trough will be moving through the Southeast with an associated weak low-level low in the eastern Gulf.
Morning sounding shows a strong inversion aloft which is helping to trap the low clouds across the area. The possibility does exist that the highway 20 corridor may only get to the mid 60s today. This results in highs still reaching the lower 80s over the southern 1/3 of the area, and the mid 70s in the central (I-80) counties, and finally, in the north, upper 60s are set, as there is slight CAA there.
With a moist atmosphere in the low and mid levels and a decent theta-e ridge overhead, expect scattered to numerous showers this evening along with some thunderstorms. Temperatures continued somewhat cooler with cloud cover and precipitation coverage.
The low level jet will be more muted tonight though so this will likely help keep showers and storms more scattered overnight.
Ahead of the outflow and MCS south winds around the Atlantic ridge continues to drag in gulf moisture and temps remain in the upper 80s to low 90s.
311 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Stormy pattern continues but most of the rain is south of Lower Michigan - Temperatures still running cooler than normal this week Large scale synoptic pattern features a quasi-zonal flow across the northern CONUS the first half of the week which becomes more amplified, with less forecast confidence in the details, late in the week.
Breaks of sunshine have helped temps rise into the low 80s in the Lower Susq Valley early this aftn, with dewpoints having risen into the mid 60s.
236 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 A weak trough over California will slowly move east through Monday. Models are showing an uptick in shower activity on Monday as the trough over the southwestern US approaches the forecast area.
A cold front across the western Permian Basin will continue to shift south and west this afternoon through tonight and should be near KFST by 17/12z. A weak cold front is moving into the area, and will result in a N/NE wind shift as it progresses south to FST by this afternoon. /issued 316 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/ Convection from storms to our north will help push a weak cold front into the Permian Basin today. The front will remain in the area Monday and southeasterly winds will push the dryline west, but an upper level ridge will create subsidence and may prevent storm development.
254 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Aloft, a closed low centered over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba at the midlevels was accompanied by a baroclinic zone across the ND/SD border and stretching into northeast Montana. With the closed low aloft and weak midlevel winds over the International Border, expecting this cloud cover to persist through the overnight hours with isolated chances for light rain. In the southern portion of the state high pressure has slowly built at the surface with an increase in low level lapse rates through the diurnal heating cycle. Monday, cold air advection continues as the low begins to shift off to the east and North Dakota is under cool northwest flow. The midlevel pattern of broad low pressure over the Hudson Bay region with continuous embedded circulations over the northern plains will continue through most of the week.
110 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level lows over northern Quebec and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba resulting in westerly flow from the northern plains through the Great Lakes. Tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions with sfc ridging into the area will again allow temps to drop into the lower 40s inland which may allow some patchy shallow fog to develop.
By Monday evening, precipitation chances should be on the decline as the weak upper level trough shifts east of the area.
As the upper trough slides southeast across the Dakotas during the day and weak low pressure and associated frontal boundary lingering in place across SD, chances for showers and storms will remain through the day but gradually progress from north to south during the afternoon into Monday evening.
205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 An upper ridge extends up from Mexico across NM and CO today. A weak trough over CA will make little eastward progress as the subtropical ridge builds over Mexico. Late in the week a stronger trough will develop over the western US but the ridge will be hard to dislodge. This front will lift north tomorrow as SE wind returns but should result in a cooler day Monday for the Permian Basin. Latest guidance much cooler than previous forecast.
228 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Upper low moving east into SW Manitoba today is the main driver of things today. Expect temperatures to remain cooler than normal with highs in the 60s NE to 70s elsewhere.
211 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 The cold front that pushed south though our area overnight continues slowly moving toward the I20 corridor this afternoon. A beautiful late Spring day is unfolding behind the cold front under a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees cooler than normal today. Temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow and begin a gradual warm up through midweek as ridging builds over the region. Northwest flow aloft will keep us in the cooler airmass until the ridge axis pivots east and opens up West Texas to southwest flow aloft and warmer temperatures amid drier air. Dewpoints will mostly remain in the 50s on the Caprock and 60s in the Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours through midweek, before the drier air and warmer temperatures build in.
Upper ridging across southeastern U. this period, with weak low pressure aloft over central FL. Low temperatures Tonight and high temperatures Monday supported by latest guidance, with high temperatures Sunday a little warmer s-ctrl GA.
Nearly zonal mid level flow in the Plains on the south side of upper low in southern Canada will gradually turn northwesterly early this week as low migrates across the northern Great Lakes.
323 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into tonight as upper low continues to move across the area, with the highest chances in S/SE portions of the fa. Funnels and weak landspout tornado will also be possible with showers and storms under the low, mainly over portions of central OK. The rain is expected to shift east of the fa early Monday as the low moves out of the area. Off and on rain chances will continue through the week into the weekend as disturbances move through the flow and/or development occurs in the high plains eventually moving into the fa.
High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Western Atlantic waters through Monday night, as a mid to upper level trough of low pressure continues to remain nearly stationary over South Florida.
225 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 High pressure ridge axis has shifted to the south of the CWFA. Not expecting much of a pattern change for Monday, other than the ridge axis shifting a little further south. Models have backed off once again from the high chance/likely pops for Monday to low end sct.
358 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 A quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped along the I-72 corridor this afternoon is separating a slightly cooler/less humid airmass to the north from a very warm/humid airmass across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the middle to upper 70s, but will reach the lower 80s across the SE CWA.