Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
144 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. Only change to the overnight period was to increase cloud cover with the low clouds to the north and the mid clouds slowly moving northward over the south. A broad ridge riding over top of the lower Mississippi Valley low will begin to get squeezed as the upper low drifts northward. Srn stream low is expected to phase with a deepening west coast trough and lift out of the Mississippi Valley northward toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. This is especially valid for east- central OH; which will be in closer proximity to low pressure, whereas father east, increased mid-level ridging should help inhibit deep, convective development.
1217 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
These clouds will keep temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days, with highs generally in the low 70s. The nearly stationary upper level low across the Mid South this morning will begin lifting north tonight and reach the Mid Mississippi Valley Thursday.
1202 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cut off low in the lower Mississippi River Valley will slowly lift northwest tonight into Wednesday, reaching south central Missouri by late Wednesday afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this evening manly across the eastern Ozarks, but CAMs models showing more widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms moving into the eastern Ozarks late tonight then spread eastward as the low lifts north. With the clouds and rain temperatures will drop into the upper 50s tonight and into the low to mid 70s for highs on Wednesday. The upper low will open up and continue to track northward through Missouri Wednesday night and finally into northern Illinois by Thursday night.
These increased winds will help mix warmer temps aloft. Used the HRRR for guidance on localized areas of warmer overnight temps from terrain interaction with a nocturnal low level jet that will set up eastern ND into southern MB tonight. A rather amplified H5 ridge is responsible for the recent warmth as it moves slowly across the northern CONUS.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500mb low sitting across the Mississippi Delta gradually lifts north into the Ohio River Valley as high pressure builds across Deep South Texas. Due to the subsidence west of the mid level trough, very comfortable conditions will continue locally through Thursday under mostly clear skies. Dewpoints from the low 50s to low 60s generally rule, with min RH values dipping below 30 percent along and west of I69C and below 40 percent along and west of I69E. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s.
Upper low across the mid Mississippi Valley, with weak upper level ridging across Texas.
A weak upper low is currently spinning over Arkansas, while high pressure sits over the Great Lakes. The resulting easterly flow in between has pushed some moisture into east-central Kansas, bumping dewpoints up into the low 60s. Throughout the rest of the day, the upper low over Arkansas will only drift northward. Our upper low will gradually move north and east, allowing ridging to build back over the region.
A low pressure system is expected to move through the CWA affecting many terminals through the TAF period. SHRA/TS will be determined by where the track of the low goes. Thurs, the aforementioned upper low wl begin to lift N/wrd and Srn US upper ridging wl amplify over the region and a warming regime wl ensue once more as low-lvl S/Wrly flow strengthens.
With cooler 85h temperatures for today, high temperatures will also be a little lower. Highs should be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s Thursday afternoon.
Wx map shows high pressure ridging south-southwest across the Central and Eastern U. Satellite showing the increased cloud cover north and east of the region as well, and this is due to the increased instability associated with the mid to upper level low parked over the ArkLaMiss. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. For Wednesday and Thursday, a much larger mid to upper level trough over the Western U. Light and variable winds expected as the ridge axis moves closer to the region. Wednesday night lows in the lower to mid 60s, and highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s.
Cloud cover was increasing from the east early this afternoon as increased moisture pushes west between high pressure centered to the northeast and a weak low under a modest cutoff low over northwest Mississippi. The increased moisture and cloud cover should lead to warmer overnight period tonight. The upper low retrogrades north-northwest into Wednesday evening and brings deeper moisture into eastern Kansas. Highs Wednesday should be tempered by the cloud, reaching the mid 70s, and a bit warmer Thursday under more sun.
155 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The pseudo rex blocking pattern will continue over the eastern CONUS today. However, this short wave will induce surface lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado and lee troughing into eastern New Mexico. Short wave ridging will be centered overhead today although we will see a slight reduction in thickness values.
The surface pressure pattern will be benign as we remain under the stacked and filling upper low. With wet soils from afternoon rains, fog will become a concern as temps fall into the lower 60s and a good portion of the area slips into the upper 50s. /CME/ The upper low retrogrades slightly to the northwest before getting kicked downstream from a wave dropping into the Pac coast. 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS looking almost identical now in handling the progression of the upper low and the depth of it through Thursday afternoon. The low ejects out of the region Thursday and tracks to the northeast, leaving the forecast area dry for the remainder of the week. Warmer temps in the midlevels edges over from the desert SW and in concert with increasing sunshine.
A slow moving cold front west of the region with some forcing aloft will keep some showers overnight into the morning hours and light east to southeast winds around 5 knots at the coastal TAF sites and near calm at the inland sites KGNV and KVQQ. High pressure will be to the northeast, with an area of low pressure over the central Gulf coast this period. An inverted trough will build over the coastal waters Tonight through Wednesday. Lows in the lower 70s Tonight, with highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday.
WV imagery show a large upper trough over the MS Valley, and a weaker trough over NW AZ, which is forecast to eject into the upper midwest and minor out later today. As the MS Valley trough moves off to the northeast, ridging will build into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in a warming trend this week. Thursday, ridging strengthens over the region, increasing thicknesses for a return to summer-like temperatures, w/highs thursday afternoon 10-15F above normal. A weak dryline is forecast to sharpen up over far west texas today in response to the upper trough over AZ, w/CAMs developing convection along this feature this afternoon.
Multiple waves of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall continue to spread nwd over parts of north cntrl/NW AL this late Tue evening, as an upper low meanders over the lower MS Valley/Mid South areas. The stacked upper low will begin to track north on Wednesday, bringing additional waves of showers and storms northeast. The upper low will begin to track northeast on Thursday, and slightly drier air should begin to filter into northwest AL during the morning hours.
(Today and tonight) Another quiet weather day is expected today as a nearly stationary upper low remains parked to our east. Northeasterly flow on the backside of the low will keep temperatures near average for highs today with skies mostly clear. A few more clouds may be possible across our eastern counties in closer proximity to the low, but no precipitation is expected.
241 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure moves into the area today and lasts for much of the coming week.
The synoptic pattern begins to change on Thursday as the aforementioned low pressure finally begins to move to the north with ridging building over Texas.
258 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week.
An upper level low currently over western Mississippi will slowly retrograde to the northwest into eastern Arkansas. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, in the mid to upper 50s, and highs on Wednesday will also be a degree or two warmer.
1107 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure both at the sfc and a loft will remain the main weather feature across northern parts of the region through the better part of Wed. Southward, a cutoff upper level low sits across the lower mississippi river valley, but cyclonic flow north of the low will provide steady east/southeasterly flow - along with ample saturation. WED NIGHT-FRI: closed upper level low over TX will get a kick northward, meandering slowly over the western great lakes by 00z Sat, then east as it gets more caught up in the upper level flow and ahead of 100 kt 300 mb jet.
Today Through Thursday Night To begin the period, an upper level low is positioned to the southeast of the CWA, in Mississippi. Models show the low moving towards the north over the course of the period, pulling away from the CWA by late Wednesday. The areas with the highest likelihood to see severe weather will be those closest to the center of the upper level low.
325 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will slowly begin to build southward into the region allowing for some clearing today. This high pressure system slowly moves eastward through the remainder of the week with a trough of low pressure to our west. This trough of low pressure brings our next chance of showers this weekend. As a result another warmer than normal night is expected tonight with lows in the 50's. Temperatures a bit warmer Thursday with highs in the 70s' with more promise than the clouds break up earlier in the day given more influence from nearby high pressure. High pressure will keep conditions rather quiet and mild during this period. Partly sunny skies are expected on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
420 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Morning analysis continues to show a closed low over the Mississippi River Valley with moisture and forcing over the area. As we go through the day and into tomorrow the upper low is expected to pull northward. This moisture aided by small vort maxes rounding through the low will support numerous rain showers with embedded thunderstorms across the CWA again today.
A warm day under mostly sunny skies is expected today with similar conditions for Thursday as a mid-level ridge builds over the region.
747 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. The 500mb ridge over our area, extending across the Mid-Atlantic to the Great Lakes, will start to give a little ground today as the lower Mississippi Valley low starts to drift northward. Srn stream low is expected to phase with a deepening west coast trough and lift out of the Mississippi Valley northward toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. This is especially valid for east- central OH; which will be in closer proximity to low pressure, whereas father east, increased mid-level ridging should help inhibit deep, convective development.
724 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. A broad ridge riding over top of the lower Mississippi Valley low will begin to get squeezed as the upper low drifts northward. Srn stream low is expected to phase with a deepening west coast trough and lift out of the Mississippi Valley northward toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. This is especially valid for east- central OH; which will be in closer proximity to low pressure, whereas father east, increased mid-level ridging should help inhibit deep, convective development.
604 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 (Today and tonight) Another quiet weather day is expected today as a nearly stationary upper low remains parked to our east. Northeasterly flow on the backside of the low will keep temperatures near average for highs today with skies mostly clear. A few more clouds may be possible across our eastern counties in closer proximity to the low, but no precipitation is expected.
/issued 224 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500mb low sitting across the Mississippi Delta gradually lifts north into the Ohio River Valley as high pressure builds across Deep South Texas. Due to the subsidence west of the mid level trough, very comfortable conditions will continue locally through Thursday under mostly clear skies. Dewpoints from the low 50s to low 60s generally rule, with min RH values dipping below 30 percent along and west of I69C and below 40 percent along and west of I69E. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s.
A trough will be over the area today for isolated showers.
Closed upper level low continues to rotate across Arkansas this morning with diffluent flow aloft contributing to areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms across portions of the area. Expect winds to remain out of the NE at KTYS and KTRI, with a slightly more easterly direction at KCHA as high pressure noses around the southern end of the Appalachians for a more E-W pressure gradient. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 66 77 65 77 / 90 80 80 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 65 77 65 76 / 80 80 90 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 77 64 77 63 76 / 80 70 90 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 64 76 61 75 / 60 70 80 70 70 NC.
Additional low stratus and fog development is expected early Thursday morning, with the highest probability in the corridor from HBG/PIB to MEI. /DL/ Today and tonight: A closed mid/upper low remains centered over the Mid South this morning, but it is beginning to slowly pull northward away from our region. However, the low level airmass remains largely unchanged from yesterday morning, with considerable low level moisture across the region.
616 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central US through the short term resulting in dry conditions through Thursday. A few isolated locations may even see a high brush the low 80s. Again, these lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal (normals range from the upper 30s across the north to the low 40s south of I-80).
1028 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night. A mid level closed low will move slowly from the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday to near southern Lake Michigan by late Thursday night.
642 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will slowly begin to build southward into the region allowing for some clearing today. This high pressure system slowly moves eastward through the remainder of the week with a trough of low pressure to our west. This trough of low pressure brings our next chance of showers this weekend. As a result another warmer than normal night is expected tonight with lows in the 50's. Temperatures a bit warmer Thursday with highs in the 70s' with more promise than the clouds break up earlier in the day given more influence from nearby high pressure.
/issued 155 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ The pseudo rex blocking pattern will continue over the eastern CONUS today. However, this short wave will induce surface lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado and lee troughing into eastern New Mexico. Short wave ridging will be centered overhead today although we will see a slight reduction in thickness values.
From synopsis, broad high pressure over the western North Atlantic and New England will gradually weaken late this week, as an upper- level trough over the Gulf Coast digs southeastward.
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Scattered showers occurred over much of south central Missouri overnight as an upper level low pressure system remained stationary over eastern Arkansas. Given the cloud cover and precipitation today, temperatures will be a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Highs on Thursday will be warmer with mid to upper 70s expected. Deep southwest flow aloft influenced by ridging along the Mississippi River Valley and long wave troughing across the intermountain west.
A low pressure system is expected to move through the CWA affecting many terminals through the TAF period. SHRA/TS will be determined by where the track of the low goes. Today Through Thursday Night To begin the period, an upper level low is positioned to the southeast of the CWA, in Mississippi. Models show the low moving towards the north over the course of the period, pulling away from the CWA by late Wednesday. The areas with the highest likelihood to see severe weather will be those closest to the center of the upper level low.
/Issued 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ Morning analysis continues to show a closed low over the Mississippi River Valley with moisture and forcing over the area. As we go through the day and into tomorrow the upper low is expected to pull northward. This moisture aided by small vort maxes rounding through the low will support numerous rain showers with embedded thunderstorms across the CWA again today.
342 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Unsettled weather will bring cooler temperatures, chances for showers and breezy winds at times over Northern California through the start of the weekend. Not much in the way of accumulations are expected in the Valley with this unsettled and cooler pattern.
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central US through the short term resulting in dry conditions through Thursday. A few isolated locations may even see a high brush the low 80s. Again, these lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal (normals range from the upper 30s across the north to the low 40s south of I-80).
The upper level low near AR/MO is forecast to lift northeast Thursday and Thursday night while weak ridging aloft nudges into our region from the west.
Closed upper level low continues to rotate across Arkansas this morning with diffluent flow aloft contributing to areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms across portions of the area. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 77 65 77 62 / 80 80 40 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 77 65 76 62 / 80 90 60 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 77 63 76 60 / 70 90 60 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 76 61 75 59 / 80 80 70 70 30 NC.
/Issued 1124 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across northwest Arkansas and parts of far eastern Oklahoma in association with an upper low centered over eastern Arkansas.
The upper low that has caused the heavy rain the past few days will lift north into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. On the east side of the trough, a moist airmass continues with precipitable water values of 1. 8 inches with lower values west of the trough axis. Drier air works farther east into the area on Thursday as upper level heights rise with the upper low pulling away. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s inland to near 70s along the coast.
overall pattern still consists of a closed low well to the southwest of the region with very weak lift in our CWA due to pieces of energy rotating around the low. The forcing from the upper low will increase Wednesday night in our CWA. As the trough slowly propagates eastward, coverage in showers will increase across the eastern portion of our CWA in central Ohio and the Scioto Valley.
434 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night.
147 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night.
1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Current VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period as high pressure and dry air continues across the area. A warm day under mostly sunny skies is expected today with similar conditions for Thursday as a mid-level ridge builds over the region.
This potential along with isolated thunderstorms associated with upper level low centered over southern Missouri, will gradually diminish through the evening as daytime heating wanes. Significant rise in heights will begin by Thursday as upper low moves off to the northeast.
249 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cloudy and very mild weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of this week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The threat for flash flooding and strong to severe storms will continue into the evening hours, as a stacked low pressure system continues shifting north northwest, keeping a moist airmass over southern middle Tennessee and north central and northeast AL. With drier air wrapping around the southeast side of the low, believe northwest AL will dry out overnight and the majority of showers and storms will be confined to areas east of I-65. As the upper low begins to shift northeast toward the Great Lakes region, drier air will continue to filter into the area from the southwest.
The Pacific cold front was into Baker and Harney Counties this morning and will pass through western Idaho this afternoon and evening. 10 to 20 degrees cooler today and 5 to 10 degrees cooler again Thursday.
Cooler temperatures in the 70s are on tap for Thursday as a cold frontal boundary moves through the area during the day. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low 50s, while lows Thursday night will range from the low 40s west to the low 50s east. To start the extended, a longwave trough sits over the west CONUS, while a ridge is placed over the far east CONUS into southeastern Canada. Multiple waves of energy will affect the region as the trough slides eastward through the weekend.
Scattered showers occurred over much of south central Missouri overnight as an upper level low pressure system remained stationary over eastern Arkansas. Given the cloud cover and precipitation today, temperatures will be a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Highs on Thursday will be warmer with mid to upper 70s expected. Deep southwest flow aloft influenced by ridging along the Mississippi River Valley and long wave troughing across the intermountain west.
Should see eastern CWA see increased cloudiness on Thursday, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures in the lower 70s from Warroad down to Elbow Lake and east.
The region is still encompassed by ridging with above avg heights nestled overhead. No relief in sight as our upper low over the Mississippi Valley will begin to move NE and breakdown heading into the end of the week. This will allow for heights to rise even further and ridging to put a stranglehold over the southern plains.
At the surface, low pressure over the Bootheel of MO will gradually fill through the short term as it drifts slightly northward. Temperatures will average some 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year with morning lows generally dropping into the lower 60s and afternoon highs climbing into the mid 70s. The slow moving upper level low that has sat across the Mississippi Valley through this week will now sit across Illinois, working into the Great Lakes Region by the weekend. As it does so, upper level ridging will take its place, expanding eastward out of deep Southern Plains and into the Southeast.
254 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The upper low has been incredibly slow in lifting to the north over the region, leaving cyclonic flow over the region and perpetuating the persistent stratus through much of the morning.
1143 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A warm and muggy weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of the week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
Light northerly winds will persist through the afternoon with slightly warmer than average highs in the mid-80s expected. /issued 701 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ For the ArkLaTex terminals, the big upper low is just W of KMEM movg N, but is rotating in some low and middeck ovhd this morning. Little change overnight, but winds will be S/SW through the wknd with a warmer trend.