Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
959 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week. A backdoor cold front will cross the region late week. Prev Disc: Dry air mass remains in place across the forecast area through Monday, as an area of high pressure slides through eastern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes. Lows tonight will be continued below normal, with lows across the north in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees, and in the low to mid 30s Downeast. Highs on Monday will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
Enjoy this weather while it lasts as the upper ridge that is building over the Mid-South will become entrenched over the area and will allow the temperatures to rise to record high levels across the area. The upper ridge builds enough by mid-week to be an upper level high which will allow for temperatures to rise into the 90s.
828 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure builds into the area for the next few days. High pressure will build into the area from the north overnight, shifting winds to the north and northeast.
/Updated at 109 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022/ As low pressure over the east begins to weaken. High pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight with increasing pressure gradient over Alabama.
Most of the lower level clouds have burned off outside of the central valley and near the Smoky mountains based on latest satellite imagery. Through the night, we will continue to have a high amplitude mid to upper level ridge building across the region, which will provide mostly clear skies from the latter half of tonight through tomorrow. Subsidence under the ridge will warm temps into the mid and upper 70s tomorrow afternoon.
The attendant warm front lifting through ncntl Nebraska is one area of interest for thunderstorms.
An upper ridge building in should allow the low clouds to clear this evening. Temperature trends will continue to be monitored in the coming hours, especially in the more protected valleys after the low clouds dissipate. The period will be dominated by high pressure nosing down from upper New England and eastern Canada, and upper level ridging that will remain over the area thanks to low pressure slowly spinning off the east coast. Warmer temps are expected with less cloud cover and the low level flow becoming more SE.
934 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures expected early this week although some moderation expected with an upper low offshore.
1056 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Per the previous discussion, the temperatures trended cooler than the expected forecast due to the low clouds departing as the ridge built in. As a result, the hourly temperature grids recieved slight adjustments to the cooler side. An upper ridge building in should allow the low clouds to clear this evening. Temperature trends will continue to be monitored in the coming hours, especially in the more protected valleys after the low clouds dissipate. The period will be dominated by high pressure nosing down from upper New England and eastern Canada, and upper level ridging that will remain over the area thanks to low pressure slowly spinning off the east coast. Warmer temps are expected with less cloud cover and the low level flow becoming more SE.
1055 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Quiet and warmer weather can be expected through most of the week. Eastern CONUS high pressure throughout the column will provide warm temperature and quiet weather through the period. Long range model ensembles indicate precipitation chance will return late week with approaching low pressure.
A strengthening mid level ridge will build across the central CONUS over the early part of the week, bringing several days with highs near or above 90 degrees.
741 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. Will maintain the notion of a frost advisory for the northeast WV mountains beginning late tonight, where temperatures are progged to drop to near freezing conditions at the highest elevations. Frost and even freeze will be possible over the highest elevations of these counties but no headlines since these zones are not in the growing season yet.
Focus will shift to Monday as even warmer air starts to arrive courtesy of an increasing pressure gradient between low pressure in the eastern Dakotas and the sprawling high pressure in the SE states. Will continue with heightened messaging on the elevated threat The advertised heat, and eventually humidity, will dominate most if not all of the period as elongated 590+ dam ridge will usher in much warmer 850mb temperatures, but the proximity of the related surface features will limit how fast the deeper moisture trickles in. Eventually the ridge will lose its control as the strengthening upper level trough pushes east and brings increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms by the end of the period.
High pressure building south down the eastern seaboard will maintain a north to northeast flow across the area tonight, becoming gusty on Mon. Afternoon highs Mon will be noticeably cooler, only reaching the upper 70s/low 80s along the coast and the mid 80s across the interior.
/issued 243 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Hot and humid conditions through the Short Term period with a mid-level ridge over the Ohio River Valley and eastern Texas.
744 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Much warmer and more humid conditions are expected over the area the next few days along with breezy conditions.
Meanwhile, to the lows west, ridging extends down into the southeastern United States. While the Keys are arguably just within the lows cyclonic envelope through the lower levels, this is not true at the surface. After topping out in the upper 80s, temperatures have cooled to the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridging over the eastern United States will continue to build southwestward. This along with Florida cooling off will see the ridge press into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and down through Florida. A ridge building southward into Florida will result in winds relaxing a bit further and veering broadly northerly.
801 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Upper ridging was shifting into the MS Valley this evening with a few high clouds. Temperatures are beginning to drop into the lower to middle 60s after sunset with calm or light southeast flow. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build into the area early this week, resulting in continued warm/dry weather.
Broad upper level trough continues to deepen over the West. Another Colorado Low develops overnight and takes a steep trajectory to the north northeast as it rides up the eastern edge of the trough.
502 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022 Fast southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region with a series of jet streaks rounding the broad upper trough to the west and affecting the forecast area tonight and on Monday, bringing good chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Another warm sunny day today as upper level ridging has expanded across the central lakes region maintaining the very dry airmass- 12Z RAOB sounding only showed 0. Southeast flow increases daytime Monday in response to deepening low pressure across the northern Plains tightening the local gradient. Modest WAA under the ridge nudges high temps up a few more degrees with highs in the low 70s. A cutoff upper trough continues to block the ridge through the midweek period as another trough moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest results in further strengthening of ridging across the central CONUS.
Short term continues to be dominated by a nearly stationary, elongated ridge of high pressure aloft.
718 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Dry high pressure will build over the area through the middle of this week. Atlantic low pressure will produce unsettled weather late this week. A closed upper level low remains off the Delmarva coast, ushering in cooler air in the northeasterly flow both aloft and at the surface. The sfc pattern through the short term period will feature low pressure off the Carolina coast with ridging high pressure across the east coast of U. The forecast area is expected to remain between a closed mid-level low over the western Atlantic and deep ridging over the Mississippi River Valley.
Dry and warmer weather returns late this week. A cold core low from the Gulf of Alaska has dropped southward into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California bringing cooler temperatures and mainly mountain precipitation. Current temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Highs will only reach the low to mid 60s for the Valley and Delta, with mid 20s to mid 40s in the mountains.
658 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 (This evening through Monday) Hot, summertime weather will continue into Monday as an anomalously strong low-level thermal ridge remains in place across the Southern Plains. The highest temperatures will be west of the dryline due to the drier air mass and higher temperatures just above the surface.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western Iowa and far southeastern Nebraska this evening along a weak warm front. The combination of wind and cloud cover should keep overnight lows fairly warm in the low to mid 60s in most areas with upper 60s possible in far southeast Nebraska. This will allow highs to warm into low 80s across our northern counties to the low 90s in our south. In addition, dewpoints in the morning will range in the 60s but fall rapidly with the frontal passage into the low 40s during the afternoon, allowing rapid afternoon heating.
High pressure is nudging into the area this afternoon, with an overall mostly sunny and milder day across the region. As a result, temperatures in our far eastern areas are running a little cooler than locations to the west, but all in all we're running comfortably higher than yesterday, with 19z temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows overnight will bottom out in the low to mid 50s in most locations. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build into the area early this week, resulting in continued warm/dry weather.
854 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures expected early this week although some moderation expected with an upper low offshore.
640 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Summary: The upper level trough that brought heavy rains to the Central Plains this past week has now moved off the U. S East Coast and is expected to retrograde westward creating a blocking pattern. This will leave much of the Central Plains under upper level ridging this week with well above normal highs expected.
1033 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. Will maintain the notion of a frost advisory for the northeast WV mountains beginning late tonight, where temperatures are progged to drop to near freezing conditions at the highest elevations. Frost and even freeze will be possible over the highest elevations of these counties but no headlines since these zones are not in the growing season yet.
605 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Much warmer and more humid conditions are expected over the area the next few days along with breezy conditions.
626 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Upper-level ridging is currently building into the Midwest, and mid- to low-level flow has turned to out of the southwest, advecting warm air into the CWA. In turn, temperatures have risen into the low 70s for most locations, and will likely increase by a couple more degrees this afternoon. The upper-level ridge will only continue to build into the region tonight and tomorrow, as warm air continues to advect into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This will set the stage for even warmer temperatures tomorrow, as values climb into the mid to upper 80s. Elmore Confidence remains high in upper-level ridging continuing to build across the eastern US, leading to a period of anomalously high temperatures across the Middle Mississippi Valley.
617 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week. A backdoor cold front will cross the region late week. Prev Disc: Dry air mass remains in place across the forecast area through Monday, as an area of high pressure slides through eastern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes. Lows tonight will be continued below normal, with lows across the north in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees, and in the low to mid 30s Downeast. Highs on Monday will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
As ridge axis builds E, increased moisture will build in, leading to some fog potential in the Pine Belt. An increasing mid/upper level ridge over the forecast area will promote increasing warmth, and we'll also have a subtle tightening of the surface pressure gradient and increased S-SE surface wind due to a strong cyclone passing over the upper midwest. With the increased low level moisture transport, there may be some fog in the lower Pine Belt region early Monday morning, but strong mixing after sunrise will limit the extent of any fog.
This will be short lived as a warm front slides north through the CWA whipping winds to the south by this evening with an increase in speed. Highs tomorrow soar into the low 90s north to upper 90s along the KS/OK border. The first will push another weak cold front through part of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning shifting winds to the north with a slight increase in cloudiness.
High pressure is to our east, keeping us in a moderate onshore flow pattern tonight through Tuesday.
Several waves from an opening up and weakening upper low will move through southeast Idaho today bringing snow, rain and afternoon isolated thunderstorms. Will see warming Tuesday with about a 10 degree rise but still well below normal with highs in the 40s and 50s, overnight lows will likely be below freezing again overnight Tuesday. Expect only a slight chance of snow in the high elevations on Tuesday with dry conditions most locations.
(Today and Tonight) The heat will continue to slowly build today, as the upper ridge strengthens to our east. Temperatures should be another degree or 2 warmer than Sundays highs, with a few spots pushing record highs for the date. Dewpoints have risen significantly over the past 24 hours, and readings in the lower 70s this afternoon will yield heat index values near 100 across parts of eastern OK.
302 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Effects of the upper ridge building over the region will start to move in today as high temperatures will be around 80 across the mid state. The strong upper trough will move off the east coast and linger in that area through the first half of the week before moving west over the SE CONUS.
An unseasonably cold upper level trough centered over southern OR will move by the region tonight into northern CA. Moisture and instability associated with an unseasonably deep upper trough will continue to promote showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. However, a cold front will enter eastern Oregon this evening, but will slow down considerably and shift to more of a NW to SE orientation when it reaches far eastern Oregon/southern ID. However, temperatures are likely to remain at or above freezing thereby limiting snowfall accumulations to the grassy areas. The upper trough will weaken and its axis will be slightly west of our area on Tuesday. This will reduce the chances for showers and thunderstorms and will be limited to the higher elevations. Slightly warmer temperatures are anticipated for Tuesday.
350 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge along the Appalachians extending in the the eastern Gulf. Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid and upper level ridge from the western Gulf extending northeast across the Great Lakes region. This increase in strength surface and aloft over our CWA will help temperatures top out from the mid 80s northeast to the lower 90s central and west today. Normal highs run in the lower 80s. The warmth will continue tonight as temperatures only bottom out from the lower 60s east to the lower 70s west.
The amplifying ridge that supports this over the Rockies, will also allow cooler air to transport south into the area. At the surface, low pressure moves northeast off the Front Range due to blocking high pressure east. With this, along with the low chances for precip, have put in a mention of blowing dust, mainly in northeast Colorado, where highest gust potential is. The upcoming wind shift will usher in cooler air allowing for a trend back towards near normal temps.
1122 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Much warmer and more humid conditions are expected over the area the next few days along with breezy conditions.
For today, a large western North America trough will foster the development of surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing to the west of the area.
Tonight Through Tuesday An upper ridge is over the central U. with upper low pressure over the east coast and Pacific northwest. Expect dew points to be on the rise through Tuesday and as the high pressure strengthens temperatures will climb.
Models show an upper level ridging pattern continuing to build over the region, positioned between two troughs on either side, with one over the western CONUS and the other over the east coast. The dry and warm air mass will persist over the area for much of the work week as the ridging pattern continues to build, bringing mostly clear skies throughout the week.
257 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Sunny days, clear nights, and a warming trend in temperature can be expected through Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
An upper trough along the West Coast will continue the chance of showers through Monday.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western Iowa and far southeastern Nebraska this evening along a weak warm front. The combination of wind and cloud cover should keep overnight lows fairly warm in the low to mid 60s in most areas with upper 60s possible in far southeast Nebraska. This will allow highs to warm into low 80s across our northern counties to the low 90s in our south. In addition, dewpoints in the morning will range in the 60s but fall rapidly with the frontal passage into the low 40s during the afternoon, allowing rapid afternoon heating. Highs again Tuesday will range in the 80s north to the low 90s in our south.
316 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies with an impulse tracking over ND/SD. A more amplified trough is expected to start digging over central/southern CA on Wed and will track into the Central Great Basin by Wed night. Upper trough is expected to go negative tilt and approach the Northern Plains by Thu afternoon.
Most of central Illinois will warm into the lower to mid 80s with south winds gusting 30 to 35 mph at times this afternoon.
316 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Temperatures will continue to warm this week as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the region. Temperatures will edge into the lower 70s in most locations (away from the cooling influence of the Great Lakes) as this gusty winds ushers in slightly a slight warmer airmass than yesterday.
With an Atlantic low in place the ridge over the Eastern CONUS will amplify over the area today. This will force the Northern Plains Plains low to continue to lift northeast and drag a warm front northward on the outer periphery of the ridge.
248 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 On the synoptic scale, a ridge axis is positioned over the Quad State region. Through the short term forecast period, this ridge axis stalls out in the area and the ridge builds, with 500 mb heights increasing through Tuesday night, then holding steady afterwards. Low pressure off the Atlantic coast stalls out the progress of this ridge while a trough digs further south near the Pacific coast. Clouds are moving across the Quad State at this time ahead of a warm frontal passage.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow in northern ELko county is possible with the highest elevations in the Ruby Mountains seeing an additional 4 to 7+ inches by tomorrow afternoon. Cooler air in the region allows for overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night to reach the 20s and afternoon highs tomorrow reaching the 40s.
326 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Strengthening upper ridge centered over the Mid-South this morning. Upper ridge will continue to strengthen though the middle of the week as an omega block develops over the CONUS. Expect record or near record highs in the lower 90s with lows in the 60s to around 70. By the end of the week the upper low off the SE Atlantic coast will begin to retrograde as the upper ridge starts to break down. The upper low will lift north north and weaken as the pattern becomes more progressive once again. High temperatures will be back into the 80s by the weekend as rain chances begin to increase as a upper level trough drops into the Mid-MS valley along with a weak cold front.
Tuesday a modest cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region (3-5 degrees cooler than Monday) but we should still expect highs to get into the 90s.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the east coast, a broad trough over the west half of the U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough in the western U. and a closed low off the se coast with a ridge over the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys 12z Thu. trough moves out into the Rockies 12z Fri and out into the plains and upper Great Lakes by 12z Sun. This means that the area is on the periphery of the ridge and leads to chance pops for most of the extended.
353 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. High pressure dominates as an omega blocking pattern sets in. Temperatures will even reach near freezing in the highest elevations in the northeast mountains with the potential for some very patchy frost although should be fairly isolated and will also be in areas where the growing season has not yet started.
Pressure gradient tightens out ahead of a surface cold front.
325 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Low pressure will linger near the coast today, prolonging the well below normal temperatures. Below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of the upcoming week as the upper low stalls offshore, but rainfall chances will return late in the week. Very little change in the big picture pattern from Monday, with the stacked low offshore of Hatteras, a tight pres gradient and breezy conditions on the west side of the low, and occasional surges of moisture rotating around the west side of the low resulting in intervals of clouds and sunshine across our eastern zones. Mainly clear skies across our western zones in the subsidence region west of the low.
Our stretch of well above normal temperatures will be replaced by just above normal temperatures this week as West Coast troughing begins to influence the region. This troughing will allow surface moisture to lift back into the forecast area during the day on Tuesday. This increased moisture and lower thicknesses will keep temperatures a bit cooler with most spots topping out in the mid 90s.
1248 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through mid week. A backdoor cold front will cross the region late week. Prev Disc: Dry air mass remains in place across the forecast area through Monday, as an area of high pressure slides through eastern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes. Lows tonight will be continued below normal, with lows across the north in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees, and in the low to mid 30s Downeast. Highs on Monday will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
1105 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022 Fast southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region with a series of jet streaks rounding the broad upper trough to the west and affecting the forecast area tonight and on Monday, bringing good chances for showers and thunderstorms.