Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
10 inches of rain for the MN Buffalo Ridge by mid day. Stayed cooler (70s to near 80 degrees) with temperatures in southwest MN Thursday due to greater likelihood for increased cloudiness. With 12z guidance shifting the upper ridging and thus the jet stream and mid level WAA further and further east, chances for rain Thursday night and Friday (already just confined to near and east of the Buffalo Ridge) are looking lower and lower. South of the stationary boundary, the forecast is much warmer, sunnier, and drier closer to upper ridging near the 90th percentile of Euro Ens guidance.
Showers will be the dominate weather today as cooler daytime temperatures, cloud cover, and high PWAT's will combine to produce modest instability. Rain chances on Friday will be along and south of the front, with the highest rain chances along and south of I-85.
241 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front this afternoon, with activity fading by tonight.
Hot and dry conditions will persist throughout the period as an amplfied upper level ridge of high pressure remains positioned across the Colorado Rockies and Western High Plains. With very little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains, look for widespread afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 90s(F) again today while lows tonight drop back down into the 60s(F). Very little change to the overall pattern is expected through the weekend as medium range models indicate an amplified upper level ridge of high pressure remaining locked in across the Western High Plains.
231 AM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022 A few showers were moving through the forecast area through the ridge early this morning, as water vapor showed a long fetch of monsoonal moisture working its way N through the western U. , around the ridge into MT. The wave will push a cold front SE through the area. The high PWAT's from 1-1. Weak energy continues to move through the ridge Friday and Fri.
Synoptically, NW flow will ensue in part to a building upper ridge over the Cntrl CONUS and a deepening trough over the Great Lakes region. Through Thursday, a cold front will push into the state beneath this NW flow. Activity will wind down on Friday, thanks to the passage of the cold front.
An upper low will lift westward but continue to linger off the coast through the end of the week.
1005 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Current WV analysis shows an upper level low off the PNW and the upper level high over CO. Flow between these two systems are advecting meager monsoonal moisture at the midlevels from the desert SW, up and over the upper ridge and into the Northern Plains. Am issuing Heat Advisories over portions of the western SD plains for tomorrow afternoon where heat indices will reach into the low 100s. There is the potential for isolated showers/storms to develop in NE Wyoming and portions of NW South Dakota behind the low, though dry air may preclude these chances. Temperatures over the western SD plains will reach the lower 100s. Southeasterly winds will become breezy tomorrow, though the highest winds do not look to coincide with the driest areas.
335 AM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Little change in the overall weather pattern today with the large dome of high pressure centered over northern Colorado. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer across the plains as 700mb temperatures climb to around +17c at Denver. Temperatures in the mountains will be slightly cooler with a bit more cloud cover and shower activity this afternoon.
Upper level low pressure is ushering in drier southwest flow, which is keeping the plume of monsoonal moisture well to the east of the area.
Dry and near normal temperatures across Western Washington through Friday with an upper low remaining well offshore.
752 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Aviation A cold front will continue to move south across our area early this morning and bring scattered light rain showers to our southeastern fcst area through around daybreak. Canadian high pressure building se into our area will bring fair wx with mostly clear skies tonight through Friday. Some mid to high level cloud cover will move in from the west Friday night well out ahead of the low pressure system moving into the upper Midwest.
This is due to the ridge located to our east sticking to the same placement, allowing moisture to be funneled up from the California Baja. Model guidance is indicating the high pressure system currently located over the Oklahoma Panhandle may begin to shift westward as a trough begins to strengthen over the East Coast. We could see a very slight downward trend in monsoon activity during the transition of the ridge; however, this high pressure system is still looking to remain over the western US.
807 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a reinforcing cold front.
618 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) A broad upper ridge remains in control across the west-central US this morning, currently centered across the central Rockies. Highs this afternoon will once again peak in the mid 90s for most, with 80s in the higher elevations and 100s confined to along the Rio Grande. Little change in the positioning of the ridge as we move into Friday suggests tomorrow's high temperatures will be nearly identical to todays, perhaps a degree or so warmer with less cloud cover expected.
541 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front this afternoon, with activity fading by tonight.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed an upper level trough axis oriented southwest to northeast across our CWA. This trough axis will combine with daytime heating of our anomalously moist airmass for scattered to numerous coverage of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms although convection looks to get an early start in our southeast and northwest.
555 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 (Today through Friday) The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Central Rockies/High Plains today through Friday. A mid level impulse and surge of deeper moisture rotates around the Ridge and over our area. Locally heavy downpours are also expected due to the high PWs and possible slow storm motions. "Cooler", slightly below normal high temperatures are expected both days due to increased cloudiness and areas of rain.
The Northern Rockies is caught between a somewhat stationary closed low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and a ridge of high pressure over the central U. As we move through today and into Friday, the low will shift northeast and the ridge to our east will begin to flatten, resulting in more southwesterly flow aloft. Friday will not bring much of a pattern change, as the closed low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest takes its sweet time migrating northeast.
Visibility conditions should improve over the next few hours as sunlight can mix out the lowered cloud deck.
Hot and dry conditions will persist throughout the period as an amplified upper level ridge of high pressure remains positioned across the Colorado Rockies and Western High Plains. With very little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains, look for widespread afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 90s(F) again today while lows tonight drop back down into the 60s(F). Very little change to the overall pattern is expected through the weekend as medium range models indicate an amplified upper level ridge of high pressure remaining locked in across the Western High Plains.
408 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Today and Tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed an upper level trough axis oriented southwest to northeast across our CWA. This trough axis will combine with daytime heating of our anomalously moist airmass for scattered to numerous coverage of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms although convection looks to get an early start in our southeast and northwest.
520 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a reinforcing cold front.
Ridging over the Four Corners will gradually nudge westward and afternoon high temperatures will be on the increase starting today.
Presence of ridge wl keep favorable open water conditions.
658 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Two cold fronts cross from north to south through the Mid Atlantic region, the first today and the second tonight. expect scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the first front today then cooler and drier air arrive in the area by Friday morning.
629 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 A band of generally high based clouds will continue to advance south across the area early this morning, associated with a sfc cold front which has already moved south of metro Detroit.
531 AM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Little change in the overall weather pattern today with the large dome of high pressure centered over northern Colorado. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer across the plains as 700mb temperatures climb to around +17c at Denver. Temperatures in the mountains will be slightly cooler with a bit more cloud cover and shower activity this afternoon.
Weak high pressure north of the Bahamas ridging westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep a SSE wind flow over the eastern gulf waters with sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
This activity is being driven by an upper-level inverted trough, that will move across Sonora today. Over the coming days, the monsoon ridge will continue to reside in a favorable position ushering southeasterly flow across the region.
Wet groundc calm winds and slightly cooler temperatures will allow patchy areas/areas of fog to develop.
1156 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a cold front.
Temperatures across the Keys are mostly in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. As soon as the sun goes down this evening, the ridge will regain ground across Florida and support one more night of moderate east to southeast breezes for the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level trough currently nearing the Appalachians will dig to the south southeast into the Eastern Seaboard. The ridge axis over Florida will lose its identity, effectively killing the low level gradient across the Keys and South Florida. ] Given that it is mid-August, and given the developing (approach of the upper trough) lack of subsidence aloft, mesoscale processes should flourish.
129 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Aviation A cold front will continue to move south across our area early this morning and bring scattered light rain showers to our southeastern fcst area through around daybreak. Canadian high pressure building se into our area will bring fair wx with mostly clear skies tonight through Friday. Some mid to high level cloud cover will move in from the west Friday night well out ahead of the low pressure system moving into the upper Midwest.
Low precip chances will remain across our far southern and southeastern counties over the weekend, but North Texas should remain rain-free as the upper level ridge continues to expand southward.
Farther to the north, upper troughing extends through the eastern Great Lakes region. This trough will slowly traverse eastward and deepen through the weekend, pushing the ridge farther to the south.
These lower ceilings will likely continue into the morning as building high pressure seems to be allowing for these ceilings to sustain and spread in the marine air. There should be weak onshore flow through the day keeping the lower ceilings spread out along the coast.
Surface based convection will fire up around 1:00 PM over the higher terrain. As such, thunderstorms are expected to mostly be tied to the higher terrain where CIN is weaker, which includes the north Cascades eastward to the northern Panhandle.
(This afternoon through Friday night) High pressure over Central CONUS will dominate the weather pattern for the short term period. Expect similar conditions Friday with afternoon temps maybe a degree or two warmer as the high pressure shifts slightly southward. Temperatures overnight will be mild in the low to mid 70s.
Warmer temperatures adding to the instability will add to the worries of possible excessive rainfall.
247 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A cold front was located across north Mississippi at this time. The cold front will continue to move slowly south tonight and should make its way into central Mississippi by Friday morning. High pressure will start to build into the region on Friday with dry weather expected. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today but will remain below normal with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
243 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected later today through early Friday as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. The front will move south of the area late Friday allowing high pressure along with cooler and drier air to overtake the region for the weekend. A cold front currently moving through the Mid-Atlantic will approach from the northwest later today with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and into early Friday. The persistent cloudiness has also prevented temperatures from rising quickly and most locations should peak in the mid to upper 80s before falling into the lower 70s tonight.
Relatively quiet weather for the short term as interior NorCal remains in between a closed low to the NW and the Four Corners high to the east through tomorrow. Clear skies, slightly warmer temperatures, and some breezy winds in the Delta are all being observed early this afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than those yesterday with the warming trend continuing into the weekend as high pressure continues to build into the area.
Loss of daytime heating will allow clouds to dissipate early this evening, with clear skies and very light winds in store tonight as high pressure settles over Lower Michigan. Should be dry enough in the low levels to preclude fog development at the TAF sites.
06Z surface data has a weak cold front running from Lake Erie west to the South Dakota/Nebraska border. North of the cold front dew points were in the 50s. (Today and tonight) Through sunrise and mid-morning quiet conditions will be seen as the cold front slowly moves south through the area. After midnight showers and some thunderstorms will develop along a new warm front across central Iowa.
However, a secondary cold front is on track to move across the FA late tonight from NE to SW bringing even more relief from the heat and humidity. Given that the high resolution models are more aggressive with a deep dry layer above 850 mb, used CONSShort for dewpoints as the NBM will likely be a bit too high with sufficient mixing during peak diurnal heating. 850 mb temps will be around 14-15C, allowing for below average high temps in the low to mid 80s. The weekend will start off with more pleasant conditions as a amplified pattern aloft remains in place with a trough centered over the eastern CONUS and ridge over the western CONUS. High temps will only be a degree or two warmer along with comfortable humidity levels once again.
Confluent flow aloft will reinforce high pressure across the Great Lakes through Friday, with the path of the system tracking from western Ontario into central Michigan. Clear skies are expected as a result which will support lows dropping into the lower 50s, touching the upper 40s in some spots (Bay/Midland). High pressure will drift into New England through late in the day on Friday before washing out.
A broad long-wave trough sits over the central United States this afternoon with a broad zone of southwesterly flow aloft over much of the central and southern United States. Where the sun has managed to break through, temperatures have quickly warmed into the lower 80's. 0" ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Despite being in a post-frontal environment, anticipate temperatures to warm into the upper 70's and lower 80's for most locations after reaching the lower to middle 60's Thursday morning. Slightly drier conditions are expected as well behind the front with dewpoints lingering in the lower 60's for most of the day Thursday. A weak cold front moves through the region tonight and tomorrow morning, and anticipate only a modest wind shift from north-northeasterly to northerly/north-northwesterly.
250 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 High pressure traveling from Illinois to Ohio will supply us with cool, dry air on north breezes of 5-10mph tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 30s where skies clear, and in the low-mid 40s where clouds hang on. Tomorrow looks great as that high proceeds to upstate New York but continues to control our weather as it ridges southwestward into the Ohio Valley.
A number of squally rain bands extend southward across the Keys and surrounding waters, primarily west of the Seven Mile Bridge. For the time being, will continue the Wind Advisory for the Lower Keys. Rain chances will remain a mix of mid chance for the Mid and Upper Keys and likely for the Lower Keys due to the distribution of banding.
This should help temperatures drop to around freezing once again. Given these conditions, can't completely rule out some patchy shallow fog in spots, but thinking the weak WAA on the back side of the high should keep much fog from developing. The next upper trough will quickly move across the area during the day tomorrow, driving another cold front southeastward during day. High pressure will once again quickly move in tomorrow night, with lessening winds and mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to drop.
The overnight forecast is a little tricky, mainly for visibilities due to the timing of a cold front and arrival of drier air. Conditions should improve much more quickly tomorrow due to the drier air behind the cold front. Upper level analysis across the country shows a deep longwave trough encompassing the entire western 2/3s of the CONUS, ridge east of there (centered just off the Carolina coast), and Eta over the southeastern Gulf.
Winds continue to relax this afternoon and are now windy in the Lower Keys and breezy or less in the Middle and Upper Keys. Winds will continue to relax as the storm moves further away and ridging begins to swing in from the Atlantic. As Eta cross the Florida Peninsula on Thursday and out into the Atlantic late that day, ridging will continue to consolidate its hold on our area. A ribbon of higher moisture will linger for a couple more days, finally being flushed westward by the incoming ridge. In addition, lower to mid level ridging will becoming established across Florida.
Expect for these showers to hang on a few more hours, but will continue slowly drifting eastward as the surface cold front pushes that way.
Currently, the expectation is still for the highest rainfall rates to take place later this afternoon before gradually decreasing west to east with the approaching frontal boundary. A cold front will pass through in the 18-00Z time frame, shifting winds to the north or northwest. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 59 71 50 70 / 90 60 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 57 66 50 67 / 90 80 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 55 67 48 67 / 90 70 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 57 66 50 66 / 90 100 40 10 0.
347 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Cold front pushes through the region with high pressure building behind it.
102 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 A cold front was dropping southeast into the Cumberland Plateau of TN through HSV into central MS. Mostly patchy of light rain and drizzle were found just ahead of and immediately behind the cold front.
134 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Water vapor shows broad trof working from the western into the central CONUS. Main upper low is over ND with secondary circulation tracking eastward from ID into WY.
The upper level trough over the northern Rockies will bring snow back into northern Utah through this evening.
1127 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 The cold front has now cleared the Mid-South, ushering in cooler and drier air across the Mid-South. The cold front has slowed down considerably over the past two hours and is now located along a line from Decatur, Tennessee southwest through Bolivar and back through Oxford, Mississippi. /issued 244 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ A cold front just passed through Memphis over the past hour, noted by a sharp northwest wind shift and a signification dewpoint drop. Dry air and much cooler temperatures will build in this afternoon. The large longwave trough over the Central U.
By Thursday morning a broad 500 mb trough will be ejecting from the Rockies into the High Plains, subsequently sharpening with a typical swath of warm air advection on its leading flank leading to the development of clouds and precipitation.
Some of the lighter totals on the southeast side of the swath have been eroding today as temperatures rise above freezing. Clearing skies and a ridge axis will be sliding across Thursday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Mid level ridging will continue over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande through the short term with little change in the weather pattern. Winds will continue to shift from northerly back to the east tonight with warmer than normal temperatures expected. Tropical Storm Eta swells continue to be directed towards the Lower Texas Coast leading to slightly elevated tides.
The GFS solution might actually favor an episode of drizzle, but there's not enough support in the higher res model data for us to lean in that direction.
Temperatures ranged from 45 to 55 degrees, with the warmer reading across southwest NE. An upper trough currently extends from eastern WA and OR, east across the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A disturbance withing this trough was currently located along the ID and WY border. This will drive a cold front into north central NE by midnight and through most of the area by daybreak. Thursday, a cooler airmass behind the cold front as H85 temperatures by late day range from -5C northeast to near 0C far southwest.
This will push nighttime low temperatures into the lower 20s for central KS and upper 20s in southern KS by Fri morning. Ketcham Clear conditions and light winds were observed across the area as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over north central MO. As high pressure moves east of the area, breezy southerly winds will return during the day across southeast KS. An approaching prefrontal trough axis will shift winds around to the northwest on Thu afternoon with higher post-frontal northwest winds expected to arrive just after the valid TAF period or during the afternoon and early evening hours on Thu.
229 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 High pressure remains in control this afternoon with temperatures warming to near seasonal averages.
Main impact will be to maintain moist easterly flow ahead of the cold front working its way across the region tonight through tomorrow. This drier airmass continues through Sat as a weakening cold front nears the area from the NW.
Wind speeds will be from the north tomorrow behind a cold front.
Latest sfc observations show that our cold front has passed through about half of our area. The cold front will continue to move eastward through the day and should move through our entire area later this afternoon.
Compact upper level low will quickly depart with the strong upper jet now focused to our northeast. Cold advection will continue today, though with increasing sunshine temperatures will fall in the vicinity or maybe a tad cooler than normal highs, which tend to be around 50 as of 11/11. Broad upper troughing lingers back across the Canadian prairies and into the northern Plains, with a bit more zonal flow in place across the center of the country along a cold frontal zone, expect a bit faster moving systems in the next few days.
249 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 A steady rain will slowly taper off from northwest to southeast late today, as a cold front moves just to the southeast of PA. High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.