Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Wrap-around moisture and lift under the trough axis continues to produce light snow across North-central Montana. Vorticity associated with a secondary trough axis could support additional snow flurries through early afternoon. There may be some icing on roadways with temperatures near, to just below freezing. Skies will clear overnight as a broad upper level ridge builds over the region.
is now transitioning to an open trof and will begin its journey northeast into the Southern Plains as a secondary trof deepens in its wake. The main portion of energy and upper lift associated with the trof will reach the western CWA border around 12Z and rain chances will begin to ramp up thereafter from W to E throughout the day. As the trof lifts north of the region by 00Z, calmer and drier conditions will follow and temperatures should still have a chance to warm into the mid 70s before sunset. It will be much quieter tonight with warmer low temperatures across the eastern zones where higher moisture will be present. However, a cold front will get dragged into the area behind the previous trof which may keep temperatures a bit cooler across the northern zones.
429 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure is currently building over the region. A longwave ridge is centered over CONUS and will continue to build east. Skies are clear with calm winds which has helped temperatures drop down into the low 30s to low 40s across the County Warning Area. As the high moves east, winds will switch out of the south- southwest which will help bring in slightly above normal temperatures across the south. A pre-frontal trough will spark scattered showers across the area on Thursday. The good news is, it won't be a completely rainy day as the ridge will be reluctant to move east with a meridional pattern in place.
629 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure and dry air will return today through Thursday night.
818 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region through Thursday night.
A weak cold front continues to push westward across western Montana this morning. The highway 200 and I-90 corridors will continue to see light snowfall accumulations through the morning commute. With temperatures falling below freezing this morning, slick conditions could develop on roadways as wet roads slowly freeze. High pressure will build over the region tonight, bringing clearing skies and a much drier airmass over the region. This will allow for a cold night with the possibility of patchy freezing fog. This will make temperatures slow to warm through the day, with many locations struggling to warm above freezing.
Ridging in expected to remain over the CWA for the period leading to clear skies, relatively calm winds, and no chance of rain. At the surface, the high pressure center remains north of the CWA over KY and will move east toward the Carolinas. High temps will be in the low 70s this afternoon with lows in the low 40s tomorrow morning, possibly reaching the upper 30s depending on how efficient the radiational cooling is overnight.
5 pvu pressure overlaid shows a large upper trough over southern California. The cold front associated with this upper trough will move through the area tomorrow morning.
1012 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected before precipitation and cooler conditions return at the end of the week.
These factors will end the upslope drizzle over the higher terrain of northeast TN and southwest VA for the rest of the day, so removed all pops. TRI will have the lowest bases at BKN 5000-7000 feet at times, but cigs should never fall back below VFR. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 65 48 63 53 / 0 10 30 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 63 49 60 51 / 0 10 40 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 38 63 48 59 48 / 0 10 50 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 63 45 58 45 / 0 0 40 70 70.
228 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low over the southwest United States and ridge over the central United States. Pieces of energy ejecting out of the upper level closed low is producing precipitation over eastern and central Kansas per mosaic radar. as temperatures profile will be well above freezing. Surface cold front is expected move across the forecast area by 18z Thursday and cooler air will filter in late morning and afternoon. With the passage of the surface cold front. After the system moves out by Thursday evening, high pressure builds into the region, and seasonable temperatures return.
251 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be snow ending over my northeast with lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle southwest and south central through this evening. Currently, mid level S/WV trough extends from northern Manitoba south/southwest into northeast Montana, with an embedded wave moving east across north central North Dakota. Farther south, drizzle or light freezing drizzle have been ongoing. No impacts thus far with road sfc temperatures well above freezing. Lingering low level moisture southwest and south central, coupled with the associated forcing ahead of the main trough will result in a continued threat for light precipitation in the form of either light snow or light freezing drizzle. Some impacts may arise this evening as road sfc temperatures quickly fall below zero, though much depends on the extent and degree of any freezing drizzle.
Highs will reach into the low to mid 40s. Milder temperatures and periods of light rain will follow Thursday and Thursday night as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes region. Light rain along prefrontal trough will overspread the area Thu followed by weak post frontal cold advection Fri. Surface analysis has high pressure centered over the TN valley and extending up into our area this afternoon providing light southerly flow.
211 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Dry and mostly cloudy conditions into this evening will give way to periods of light rain and gusty winds Thursday into Thursday evening as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. Lows tonight will range between the mid 30s and mid 40s, with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 50s.
/issued 847 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019/ Dry stable conditions courtesy of high pressure building in over the area will support very pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area the remainder of today with ample sunshine expected. After a cool start with readings in the 40s and 50s temperatures will rebound quickly with highs topping out in the lower 70s north, and mid to upper 70s central and south during the afternoon. Tranquil boating conditions will continue across the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with north winds around 10 knots and seas around 2 feet.
Expect MVFR ceilings to largely prevail ahead of cold front which moves into NE OK after sunrise Thursday.
304 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
145 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure over the Southeastern United States will remain nearly stationary through Thursday. The High Risk of Rip Currents will continue along the east coast Beaches of South Florida today due to the northeast swells.
Thursday looks cooler (below normal), as a cold front sags southwest toward the Pecos River by early evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue from southeast New Mexico east to the eastern Permian Basin, north of the front as an upper low in southern California ejects toward the Great Basin. Precipitation chances will expand south and west Thursday night toward the Pecos River as the cold front continues to push toward the Rio Grande River and the upper low moves through the Rocky Mountains.
Reports of freezing drizzle and light rain with temperatures below freezing has led to a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of this morning in Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. A chance of light snow or mixed precip will remain possible into this afternoon as an upper trough moves through the forecast area. High pressure moves into the area tonight with dry weather. It is uncertain how quickly the low clouds will clear overnight which will affect how cold it will be.
201 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 A great Fall day today so far with decent ridging aloft ahead of the Plains trough that will be responsible for a wet finish to the week and start of the weekend.
High pressure has moved over our forecast area and drier air is moving in, that said the ground is quite moist.
1258 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
A cold front will be moving toward the TN valley Thursday night with some deeper moisture increasing and small chances for light showers over far n GA.
The low pressure system over central California this morning will track southeast, then turn northeast into southern and central Utah by early Thursday. High pressure aloft will work east across the Great Basin this weekend. An upper low evident in morning satellite imagery and upper air analysis is slowly migrating across southern California. Meanwhile further south, a combination of upper diffluence within the northeastern quadrant of the upper low, coupled with a jet streak and associated ejecting vorticity lobe, is helping to maintain a band of precipitation across southwest and south central Utah.
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region through Thursday night.
Drier air will follow while a trailing cold front will sag through the area near or just after daybreak Thursday. The next impulse ejecting east from the notable upper level low pressure system centered over the Mojave Desert, will bring increasing lift via right upper level jet energy skirting through the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains late Thursday. But there may be a risk for icy spots developing as temperatures settle just below freezing in this area.
129 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected before precipitation and cooler conditions return at the end of the week.
High pressure will move over the area beginning Thursday, with an inversion anticipated.
610 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2019 A low pressure system will slowly cross the Desert Southwest through Thursday. High pressure aloft will work east across the Great Basin this weekend. Closed low will shift from southeast California this evening, into southwest Utah tomorrow morning. An upper low slowly migrating across southern California will continue on a gradual eastward track into the Desert Southwest this evening through Thursday. Upper level diffluence within the northeastern quadrant of this low will maintain showers across southwest Utah into the evening hours and have maintained elevated PoPs across this area. In the wake of this low, a col region will develop across the forecast area into the upcoming weekend. Under a brief flat ridge to end the weekend, another storm system is setting up for early in the week.
A cold front will move fairly briskly southeast across the region, reaching KWWR around 07Z, and KSPS/KOUN around 13Z-14Z. The front is expected to stall soon after passing through KSPS/KOUN, and moist southeasterly flow over the front will retain the low ceilings through the evening near/behind the front for the rest of the day. /issued 418 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/ The upper level ridge axis will exit the central plains as a highly amplified trough approaches from California. A cold front will enter NW OK overnight and track through central OK during the mid-morning hours and will slow/stall over SE portions of the FA.
A cold front will move through the terminals around sunrise local time and will help push any low clouds and ceilings out of KLBB while also bringing north wind to the terminals. Drier air will follow while a trailing cold front will sag through the area near or just after daybreak Thursday. The next impulse ejecting east from the notable upper level low pressure system centered over the Mojave Desert, will bring increasing lift via right upper level jet energy skirting through the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains late Thursday. But there may be a risk for icy spots developing as temperatures settle just below freezing in this area.
A low pressure system will slowly cross the Desert Southwest through Thursday. High pressure aloft will work east across the Great Basin this weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 66 49 63 / 0 0 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 66 49 59 / 0 0 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 37 64 49 57 / 0 10 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 63 46 56 / 0 0 60 90.
A closed low spinning over southern CA will move inland this evening, turning upper level winds over the CWA from the south/southwest and bring another surge of precipitation northward. This band of precipitation will move north and east of the region by noon Thursday, however, with the closed low to our west, recycled moisture will support snow showers to persist over higher terrain through Thursday night. Showers will finally start to taper off Thursday night as the center of the low shifts over the CWA and our moisture supply moves east of the Rockies.
With increasing midlevel frontogenesis, rainfall will pick up from the lower MO river corridor into northwestern IA, where a quarter to just over half an inch of rainfall could occur overnight.
Freezing fog is being reported near the border of SD and MT along I-94 and may continue for awhile today. An upper trough passing through this evening will bring along cold temperatures behind the front. A ridge builds behind the front. These variables along with light and variable winds may lead to the possibility of the development of patchy freezing fog as well.
A great Fall day today so far with decent ridging aloft ahead of the Plains trough that will be responsible for a wet finish to the week and start of the weekend.
Could see some redevelopment late tonight or early Thursday morning along the cold front as it enters northeast OK.
Gradient between high pressure over the southeast US and low pressure over the central plains should keep winds and mixing up tonight to keep any fog from forming. Dry weather will continue into Thursday with modest ridging aloft gradually transitioning to a more zonal flow. After a morning of dense fog today, not expecting any problems with fog development late tonight as a tightening gradient with deepening low pressure over the Plains leading to winds staying up overnight.
A cold front will move south tomorrow afternoon, bringing a wind shift and a chance for more thunderstorms, but this will be on the edge of the 24 hour TAF package. For Thursday, the best rain chances remain over the Big Country, especially during the afternoon hours, when another cold front will push to near the Interstate 20 corridor.
As the upper level wave moves into the area and the cold front gets through the area, the precipitation will expand in coverage during the evening, then move out of the area from south to north during the overnight hours. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler with highs only around 40 degrees.
753 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure builds from the SE US into the Carolinas over the next 24 hours and will continue the seasonable dry weather intact with near normal temps during the day and slightly below normal temps at night with lows in the 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. Temps rebound into the lower 70s by Thu afternoon with enough low level moisture from the onshore Atlc NE flow to produce some scattered diurnal Cu clouds across NE FL during the afternoon hours.
631 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Dry and mostly cloudy conditions into this evening will give way to periods of light rain and gusty winds Thursday into Thursday evening as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. Lows tonight will range between the mid 30s and mid 40s, with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 50s.
The other concern is the potential for very light freezing drizzle tonight after we lose the ice crystal layers. We are in a pronounced region of upper level diffluence along with a col pattern in the mid levels which is mainly neutral area between the ridges and trofs. Low clouds may not clear out anytime soon tomorrow as the closed low slowly moves through Colorado.
The sub-freezing temps are still back off to the northwest, but not too terribly far - close enough to bring a threat of freezing drizzle this evening/overnight as well. With clearing skies Thursday night and generally light winds, decided to side towards the cooler end of low temperatures, although there's a lot of guidance that would suggest we're not going cold enough. The extended opens with high pressure at the sfc keeping us warm and dry into the weekend.
418 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 The upper level ridge axis will exit the central plains as a highly amplified trough approaches from California. A cold front will enter NW OK overnight and track through central OK during the mid-morning hours and will slow/stall over SE portions of the FA.
Along with potential of additional cloudiness, current temp trends supporting warmer lows than previously forecasted.
Dry weather will continue into Thursday with modest ridging aloft gradually transitioning to a more zonal flow. After a morning of dense fog today, not expecting any problems with fog development late tonight as a tightening gradient with deepening low pressure over the Plains leading to winds staying up overnight.
736 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
For Thursday, the best rain chances remain over the Big Country, especially during the afternoon hours, when another cold front will push to near the Interstate 20 corridor.
847 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 Ridging aloft continues to build over the Southeast, with southwest flow aloft streaming in Gulf moisture, and therefore increasing cloud cover overnight. Coupled with high pressure at the surface progressing over the Mid Atlantic and turning light surface winds to the southeast, overnight temperatures will be very mild in the low to mid 40s.
At the surface, a low pressure system will pass to our northwest, pushing a cold front towards the OH Valley. Best chances for snow or even sleet will be across southern Indiana, depending on how sharp the upper low is at that point.
632 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region through Thursday night.
/issued 924 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/ The surface pressure gradient over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will result in southeasterly winds remaining around 5 to 10 MPH through the overnight hours. Dry weather will continue into Thursday with modest ridging aloft gradually transitioning to a more zonal flow. After a morning of dense fog today, not expecting any problems with fog development late tonight as a tightening gradient with deepening low pressure over the Plains leading to winds staying up overnight.
1033 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
Drizzle/snow continue across the region, and some of that drizzle may switch to freezing drizzle as cold air continues to slide south into the CWA overnight. The sub-freezing temps are still back off to the northwest, but not too terribly far - close enough to bring a threat of freezing drizzle this evening/overnight as well. With clearing skies Thursday night and generally light winds, decided to side towards the cooler end of low temperatures, although there's a lot of guidance that would suggest we're not going cold enough. The extended opens with high pressure at the sfc keeping us warm and dry into the weekend.
321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region today and tonight.
We'll see showers develop around sunrise today and continue through the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
1150 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
Weak high pressure continues to dominate across the region this morning, with only high cirrus streaming aloft. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 49 63 54 63 / 0 40 90 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 49 59 52 61 / 0 60 90 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 64 49 57 50 60 / 10 60 90 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 46 56 46 58 / 0 50 90 70 100.
The surface cold front at 05Z was located northwest of KWWR, and was moving southeast, more or less on schedule. A cold front will move fairly briskly southeast across the region, reaching KWWR around 07Z, and KSPS/KOUN around 13Z-14Z. The front is expected to stall soon after passing through KSPS/KOUN, and moist southeasterly flow over the front will retain the low ceilings through the evening near/behind the front for the rest of the day. /issued 418 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/ The upper level ridge axis will exit the central plains as a highly amplified trough approaches from California. A cold front will enter NW OK overnight and track through central OK during the mid-morning hours and will slow/stall over SE portions of the FA.
249 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today, bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
212 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Winds will increase early today as rain moves into the area as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s.
The cold front will move through the northeast OK terminals by mid morning, with a wind shift to northwest. Could see some redevelopment late tonight or early Thursday morning along the cold front as it enters northeast OK.
Mid/upper ridge will move over the area today continuing the dry and mild pattern. Some high thin cloudiness will move over the ridge with skies remaining mostly sunny.
1008 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region through Thursday night.
105 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 High pressure and dry air will be over the region through tonight.
1030 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 Temperatures have fallen quickly since sunset reaching the low to mid 50s in many areas. High pressure ridge slides southeast from the central Appalachians towards the Carolina coastline. Max temps will be a little warmer, reaching the mid to upper 70s.
Next impact will be a cold front currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle that will arrive before sunrise and faster than any current computer forecast has. Drier air will follow while a trailing cold front will sag through the area near or just after daybreak Thursday. The next impulse ejecting east from the notable upper level low pressure system centered over the Mojave Desert, will bring increasing lift via right upper level jet energy skirting through the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains late Thursday. But there may be a risk for icy spots developing as temperatures settle just below freezing in this area.
Winds will remain light for most of the period, possibly becoming elevated after 22/00Z as a cold front begins to move across the region. Thursday looks cooler (below normal), as a cold front sags southwest toward the Pecos River by early evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue from southeast New Mexico east to the eastern Permian Basin, north of the front as an upper low in southern California ejects toward the Great Basin. Precipitation chances will expand south and west Thursday night toward the Pecos River as the cold front continues to push toward the Rio Grande River and the upper low moves through the Rocky Mountains.