Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The short wave trough will lift north-northwest into the Brush Country by Saturday afternoon. With warmer temperatures and high humidity, heat index values will increase slightly and could see Heat Advisory conditions over the inland Coastal Bend and Brush Country Saturday afternoon.
Tonight: Weak high pressure will build into the area with clear skies and light to calm winds. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s but if there is more sunshine than expected then temps may be a few degrees warmer.
Expect mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows falling into the low 70s. Seasonably warm and muggy conditions will persist through much of the forecast period as expansive upper ridging centered over the Central Rockies exerts influence.
Otherwise, activity will gradually wane overnight as the cold front sags into southern Illinois.
Thunderstorms Return Across the Northern Rockies Saturday A closed upper level low is seen on GOES Water Vapor Imagery off the coast of British Columbia this afternoon.
1120 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging across Idaho and Wyoming approaching the area. SBCAPE of 1200 J/kg and strong shear will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Black Hills and push in from the higher terrain west/southwest of the CWA.
For tnt the LLJ (albeit fairly weak) returns to the high plains of South Dakota.
CAPES expected to be quite meager with the widespread clouds, though any organized convective cells will produce bouts of heavy rain with the high PW air mass in place.
As a large area of low pressure over central Canada continues to slow advect to the east; a cold front will sag into the region for Saturday. PWat values for tomorrow are on the high side again; therefore, another marginal excessive rain outlook exists for tomorrow.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 72 90 73 / 20 50 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 90 72 90 71 / 20 60 30 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 89 71 88 70 / 30 60 30 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 68 85 68 / 20 60 30 70 20.
Showers will move into the northern tier later tonight ahead of a cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes. Isolated storms ongoing across the far eastern portion of the Lower Susq Valley should fade/exit the CWA by early evening. Focus for tonight will shift to the NW as cold front presses southeast across the Lower Great Lakes. Rainfall totals of up to three quarters of an inch are possible in southeast PA with a tight gradient farther north and west along/behind the cold front. The latest trends in model guidance continue to favor the cold front sagging southward more quickly, which would favor prevailing dry conditions for most fireworks displays on Saturday night.
Deep tropical air mass remains in place across the region as the local area is on the periphery of high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
Slow movement of the storms along with the high deep layer moisture is once again producing very heavy rainfall rates and some localized flooding potential across portions of the area, most notably just north of the Mobile Bay area. Temperatures this afternoon, outside of rain areas, are in the low to mid 80s as expected, but slightly lower in the areas where rain has persisted for much of the day.
As an upper-level low and associated area of disturbed weather slowly slides off the SE Atlantic Coast, weak ridging remains in place overhead, with a mesoscale-driven day for convection continuing, in typical summer-time fashion. A subtle SE flow has been driving things in the background given the ridge axis placement, but with diurnal heating well underway, a greater influence near the coast of the west coast seabreeze is being realized. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day with the subtropical ridge axis remaining as the dominant weather feature. Other than locally hazardous conditions in the vicinity of showers and storms, marine conditions are expected to remain mostly benign with winds less than 15kts and seas of 2 feet or less as the subtropical ridge axis remains in control of local weather conditions.
1010 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will slowly push southeast across Pennsylvania on Saturday.
722 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will slowly push southeast across Pennsylvania on Saturday.
/issued 225 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ Benign weather will continue for the next 24 hours as the 592 dam sub-tropical ridge remains centered over the CWA.
A troughing pattern will promote a cooling trend for the interior through the weekend. Drizzle will be likely along portions of the North Coast as the low level moisture deepen. The aforementioned longwave trough is expected to settle over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and will remain relatively stationary through the holiday weekend. A blocking pattern will hold steadfast the troughiness, which will coax out light coastal drizzle to maybe isolates light rain at times through the weekend.
652 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will slowly push southeast across Pennsylvania on Saturday.
(Rest of tonight) Latest analysis suggests that a broad weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge continues to reside across the TN Valley this evening, between well-defined anticyclones positioned across the southern High Plains and southwestern North Atlantic.
Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s far north around Galesburg and Macomb. Thunderstorm activity for this evening looks to stay confined south of I-72 at this juncture with the cold front currently draped from Paris to Pana. Nevertheless, we do see the potential for an isolated downburst or two this evening near and south of the I-70 corridor where little or no CINH exists, and where DCAPE values are exceeding 1200 J/kg in the vicinity of the cold front. Interestingly, coverage is modeled to increase later tonight as a weak LLJ (< 25 kts) veers in ahead of the cold front and helps scattered storms develop and fester overnight. High pressure will begin to build across the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning in the wake of frontal passage.
1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Periods of showers and storms expected through Friday night as a cold front slides through the region.
and also over parts of Southeast Oklahoma as an area of low pressure in East/Southeast Texas lifts northward.
This active setup will continue in what should be a very similar day on Saturday, as the upper high has weakened and shifted east slightly to over eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. The east central and southeast plains of NM will be mostly shut-down, except for isolated short- lived convection, due to the upper high overhead.
922 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A potent high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic and portions of the southeastern United States has resulted in mainly tranquil and fair weather conditions this afternoon and evening for the Keys and surrounding waters.
1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will slowly push southeast across Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Anvil cirrus from thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Mexico will traverse the area, possibly leading to a high-level ceiling this evening. /issued Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A low to mid level ridge centered over Alabama will maintain breezy conditions along the area, with a prevailing south to southerly flow.
654 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will slowly push southeast across Pennsylvania on Saturday.
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 (Through tonight ) Daytime heating combined with an unstable atmosphere has allowed isolated pulse type showers to develop within the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. and also over parts of Southeast Oklahoma as an area of low pressure in East/Southeast Texas lifts northward.
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place in the Southern Plains.
With mostly cloudy skies to prevail across the region, temperatures forecast to settle in the lower to middle 70s overnight.
454 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 High pressure to the southeast has maintained a surge of monsoonal moisture across the region, fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Western Slope early this afternoon. In addition, high pressure lends to weaker winds aloft which has truncated storm motion across the southern half of the CWA thus far. Atmospheric conditions change moving into the northern sector of the CWA, where a weak upper level jet and small perturbations rippling through the ridge of high pressure may trigger more organized cellular development. A slight shift in synoptic pattern is expected tonight, as a Pacific NW trough digs along the West Coast.
Partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast overnight. Temperatures along the coast will stay a few degrees warmer in the upper 70s.
(Today) Temperatures are slated to be a degree or two cooler today across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon when compared to Friday afternoon.
The upper level trough approaches the region on Saturday which could initiate a few afternoon thunderstorms north of Burns, Oregon and across Baker County.
Pressure rises have occurred across the Gulf this evening as low- level ridging is showing signs of building in from the east. Despite decent moisture availability, coverage has been low in spots the past few days, so I preferred not to have any PoP areas increased as it is low-predictability mesoscale features leading to this higher coverage.
Greatest coverage across the higher elevations. Main forcing remains the higher terrain.
417 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Dry and seasonable conditions return this afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Building high pressure will leave the rest of the weekend pleasant. At this time, ridging and a warm air cap seem likely to suppress convection, but conditions will be slightly warmer and muggier than the prior days. Convective storms ahead of an approaching cold front continue to push off to the southeast. The cold front will gradually push southward across area terminals tomorrow in the daylight.
404 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Scattered showers and storms to continue this morning as a cold front moves south through the region.
210 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Scattered showers and storms expected this morning as a cold front moves south through the region.
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Not overly confident in any part of the forecast the next several days, but timing the highest thunderstorm chances and temperatures will provide the main forecast challenges. At 500 mb, their seemed to be a couple of weak anticyclones over the OK/TX/NM.
1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 (Rest of tonight) Latest analysis suggests that a broad weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge continues to reside across the TN Valley this evening, between well-defined anticyclones positioned across the southern High Plains and southwestern North Atlantic.
1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place in the Southern Plains.
303 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Fairly typical summertime pattern has set up over the region with weak upper ridging aloft and W Atlantic high pressure ridge axis stretching into N FL and the Deep South.
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 The upper high that we have been talking about for a while now remains overhead; however, thickness will come down some today which will result in slightly "cooler" temperatures. Tonight will be mostly clear, with lows mainly in the low to mid-70s with upper-60s near the Texas/New Mexico state line.
1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front over the Great Lakes will slowly push southeast across Pennsylvania on Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Although we remain under a broad upper level ridge spread across the southern U. , a weak upper low embedded within the ridge can be seen spinning over southern Texas early this morning. This low will bring slightly cooler temperatures aloft into the area, making it more likely for showers and thunderstorms to develop. While this low will result in slightly better chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, it should also cause afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler.
150 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Low pressure will affect the area through Saturday.
Surface ridging remains with weak pressure gradient keeping winds outside of storms generally weak (less than 10kts).
747 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Dry and seasonable conditions return this afternoon following the passage of a cold front and the end of showers. Building high pressure will leave the rest of the weekend pleasant. At this time, ridging and a warm air cap seem likely to suppress convection, but conditions will be slightly warmer and muggier than the prior days. Scattered showers ahead of the crossing cold front will taper off through the morning. As the cold front pushes south and as daytime mixing commences, an improvement to VFR is forecast from north to south into the afternoon.
1048 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 The Atlantic ridge axis remains across central Florida this morning, maintaining a southerly flow across the area, which will turn SE behind the sea breeze. Favorable boating conditions expected today, with S/SW winds across the northern waters and SE winds across the southern waters due to the Atlantic ridge axis draped across the local waters.
1054 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front will stall out across the Tennessee Valley, with lingering precipitation south of the Ohio River into this evening.
634 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 (Today and tonight) Although we remain under a broad upper level ridge spread across the southern U. , a weak upper low embedded within the ridge can be seen spinning over southern Texas early this morning. This low will bring slightly cooler temperatures aloft into the area, making it more likely for showers and thunderstorms to develop. While this low will result in slightly better chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, it should also cause afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday beneath the building upper ridge, as well, lending some additional convective potential for late in the day. The upper level pattern remains consistent with a ridge over the region for the entire period.
604 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper low remains just offshore the Pac NW coast. Increased instability is expected Sunday as temps reach the the low to mid 90s across the western SD plains and dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s.
313 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper low remains just offshore the Pac NW coast. Increased instability is expected Sunday as temps reach the the low to mid 90s across the western SD plains and dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s.
In the upper levels, we keep weak ridging over the Deep South and N Gulf of Mexico with minor perturbations through the flow over C AL.
/issued 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022/ The upper high that we have been talking about for a while now remains overhead; however, thickness will come down some today which will result in slightly "cooler" temperatures. Tonight will be mostly clear, with lows mainly in the low to mid-70s with upper-60s near the Texas/New Mexico state line. The aforementioned upper-level high will be displaced east on Sunday as troughing moves onto the western U. As it does so, an inverted trough will lift northwest across central Texas bringing an increase of moisture to much of the region. This increased moisture and cloud cover will lead to temperatures slightly cooler on Sunday with most locations remaining in the 90s.
A cold front will be exiting to the south this morning with high pressure building across the north. A cold front continues to dig south this morning with high pressure building in across northern MN. Sunday, high pressure will start to be shunted off to the northeast in favor of a warm front encroaching from the southwest.
701 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Aviation -- Saturday and Sunday -- Temperatures over the weekend will be near normal with a fair amount of sun as post cold frontal high pressure is in place.
Not overly confident in any part of the forecast the next several days, but timing the highest thunderstorm chances and temperatures will provide the main forecast challenges. At 500 mb, their seemed to be a couple of weak anticyclones over the OK/TX/NM.
519 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper low remains just offshore the Pac NW coast. Increased instability is expected Sunday as temps reach the the low to mid 90s across the western SD plains and dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s.
Heading into Sunday the low level boundary will shift north of the area.
Fairly typical summertime pattern has set up over the region with weak upper ridging aloft and W Atlantic high pressure ridge axis stretching into N FL and the Deep South.
Thus kept precip chances on the lower end and have the highest chances in the west.
527 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front along the south shore of Lake Erie early this morning will drift gradually southeast across Pennsylvania today. The rest of the holiday, including the Fourth of July will be pleasantly warm with comfortable humidity as high pressure builds over the region.
The region will remain under a relatively flat upper level ridge, extending from the southern high plains to the Southeast. To the north, slightly stronger westerlies will prevail relative to yesterday, as a weak trof passage depresses midlevel heights over the mid-MS River and lower OH River valleys. In the wake of the northern branch trof passage, the subtropical upper level ridge will amplify over the Ozarks on Sunday.
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place today across the Southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. Low-level moisture/dew points in the lower to mid 60s will be maintained via the southeast low-level flow. Storms will move east- northeast off the trough into a moist and unstable environment.
524 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Early this morning, a cold front was situated just south of Cincinnati, moving slowly southward.
Deep layer ridging, and ESErly steering flow will continue through the weekend. High temperatures will also be similar each day, reaching the lower 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 (Today through Sunday) Broad upper ridging remains in place across the region. The upper ridge begins to build more in earnest across the Southeast United States, which will mean lower potential for rain and increasing temperatures. As the upper ridge builds through the rest of the week to around 596dm and becomes more entrenched over the Middle Tennessee and Deep South regions, temperatures will start to climb back into the mid to upper 90s.
(Today through Sunday) Broad upper ridging remains in place across the region. The upper ridge begins to build more in earnest across the Southeast United States, which will mean lower potential for rain and increasing temperatures. As the upper ridge builds through the rest of the week to around 596dm and becomes more entrenched over the Middle Tennessee and Deep South regions, temperatures will start to climb back into the mid to upper 90s.
Bits of upper level energy continue to top upper level ridge over the plains, shifting east across the region.
631 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Scattered showers and storms to continue this morning as a cold front moves south through the region.
439 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place today across the Southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. Low-level moisture/dew points in the lower to mid 60s will be maintained via the southeast low-level flow. Storms will move east- northeast off the trough into a moist and unstable environment.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The broad upper ridge will continue to be the dominating weather feature through the short term, keeping temperatures warm and winds relatively light. As seen over the past few days, thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend Region. An upper trough off the Pacific NW will push the ridge axis eastward on Sunday, resulting in high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. Have gone ahead and increased POPs to account for the potential for thunderstorms for nearly the entire CWA, although the best chances for precipitation remain in the higher terrain for Sunday.
A troughing pattern will continue to enhance cloud cover and coastal drizzle, as well as keep inland high temperatures lower. Blocked flow will hold general troughing and very light precipitation chances through mid week. A broad mid to upper level trough with seasonably strong flow aloft will continue to deepen into the region this weekend. Thus far, the troughing has greatly deepened the marine layer to near 3000 ft, allowing for further inland stratus intrusion and better daytime stratus longevity. Looking at the soundings for eastern Trinity County, there are some storm parameters that would warrant a closer watch if convective initiation is realized later today, but the limited available moisture will keep chances on the lower side. Blocking upstream flow will hold steadfast the troughing, which will coax out light coastal drizzle at times as disturbances rotate in from the trough.
Upper troughs were over eastern Canada and off the Pacific Northwest coast, with ridging coming off the lee side of the Rockies.
737 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front along the south shore of Lake Erie early this morning will drift gradually southeast across Pennsylvania today. The rest of the holiday, including the Fourth of July will be pleasantly warm with comfortable humidity as high pressure builds over the region.
314 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper level ridge sits over the state and a trough continues to deepen off the Pacific Northwest Coast. On Sunday the trough and ridge shift a little eastward putting us under a southwesterly flow aloft. The same scenario will play out for the 4th of July as the trough and ridge pairing make little if any progress eastward. Shower activity looks more widespread which will keep our temperatures a bit cooler than the previous days. Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight our area for severe weather with the southern zones having the highest risk. Trough and ridge make little to no movement for the rest of the week so things look pretty unsettled. Could see a warming trend as ridge may actually amplify a bit and retrograde as the week progresses.
1007 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 East to southeast winds in the lower troposphere are guiding convective showers across the Straits of Florida and southeast Gulf waters, with the greater, more "scattered" concentrations across the Gulf waters west of Mainland Monroe County (beyond 5 fathoms) and the Straits northwest of the Cay Sal Bank. The morning sounding confirmed our close proximity to the mid tropospheric ridge, with heights steady near 591 mb.
Discussion: We remain in between a broad upper trough moving east across southern Canada and a broad upper ridge to our south. A weak surface cold front is sagging south through the Ohio River valley, but exactly how far south it will make it before stalling is uncertain.
This activity is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon with a mid/upper low sitting just to our northeast. The highest chances for rainfall during this time will be concentrated in and around Galveston Bay, with activity gradually shifting to the northeast by the early afternoon. Precipitation chances will diminish tomorrow as the aforementioned remnant upper low drifts out of the area and mid/upper ridging becomes dominant once again. High temperatures today once again follow an east-west gradient, with highs in the low/mid 90s to the west of I-45 where precipitation coverage and cloud coverage will be lower. With ridging building into the area tomorrow and decreased cloud cover, highs will rise into the mid/upper 90s inland and near 90 along the coast.