Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
734 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Dry and seasonable weather will continue through early Sunday under high pressure.
At the same time, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the evening over western areas, with convection gradually shifting east tonight as a disturbance and associated cold front drop in from the northwest. With inverted-v soundings, strong wind is possible as well, with hail being less of a threat due to high freezing levels. Behind the cold front, Sunday is expected to be cooler and drier, but also breezy as well, with northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph possible over eastern areas by the afternoon.
815 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late Sunday.
/Issued 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ The slow warming trend continued this afternoon with temps running a few degrees warmer compared to 24-hrs ago. Southerly flow this afternoon was also helping to lift moisture back into the region with dewpoints in the low/upper 60s over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
813 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Thunderstorm activity over the west has been a little stronger along the cold front than the models had been advertising. At the same time, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the evening over western areas, with convection gradually shifting east tonight as a disturbance and associated cold front drop in from the northwest. With inverted-v soundings, strong wind is possible as well, with hail being less of a threat due to high freezing levels. Behind the cold front, Sunday is expected to be cooler and drier, but also breezy as well, with northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph possible over eastern areas by the afternoon.
948 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Convection briefly flared along the Lower Keys cloud line during the late afternoon hours, and a line of showers and storms moved offshore from southern Miami-Dade County into Florida Bay, but all convective activity across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters dissipated by sunset. Recently, a few showers have developed across the offshore Gulf waters to the north and northwest of the Lower Keys. Surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, with the diurnal thermal trough predominant over the Florida peninsula. Aloft, weak mid/upper level ridging prevails over the region. Otherwise, low temps by morning will drop only a few more degrees into the lower 80s at most locations, although sheltered interior spots such as North Big Pine will probably drop down into the upper 70s as light winds continue.
916 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Satellite shows a few dissipating cumulus in the higher terrain near the VA and TN borders. Strong ridging continues across the eastern US this afternoon with another round of diurnally forced CU across the region. The ridge will hold through Sunday Outside of some valley fog tonight, generally VFR conditions will be seen across eastern Kentucky through Sunday afternoon.
747 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late Sunday.
Isodrosotherm analysis has low 70s from Bullitt County to Hardin, Breckinridge to Grayson down into PAH CWA. Temps will be typical of late July, but dewpoints remain fairly manageable in the lower/mid 60s, and this will allow for some deep mixing. Updated at 235 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak cold front will begin moving into the Midwest to start the week.
725 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Strong ridging continues across the eastern US this afternoon with another round of diurnally forced CU across the region. The ridge will hold through Sunday Outside of some valley fog tonight, generally VFR conditions will be seen across eastern Kentucky through Sunday afternoon.
/issued 234 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ High pressure aloft will continue to build west of the area today and dominate our weather for both the short and extended periods. Similar to yesterday evening, a weak disturbance rounding the high will help initiate rain showers and thunderstorms in far eastern NM and just as with last evening as they try to push into our CWA they will begin lose their strengthen and either completely dying out or remain high based in nature. Tomorrow, the persistent high will begin to shift further west and south placing the CWA on the periphery of the high. As this occurs a weak upper trough will move through the central Plains and send an associated weak surface front through the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern NM late Sunday.
A cold front will move eastward through the region tonight, producing scattered thunderstorms over Southwest MT. Expect slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds on Sunday.
Southerly winds will get gusty again on Sunday, but they will turn to the north at DHT and GUY behind a cold front Sunday afternoon. Much like the past few afternoons, showers and tstms are developing over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico as of this writing. Steering flow around an upper level ridge of high pressure situated across the desert Southwest may bring some of the showers and storms southeastward into the far northwest sections of the OK and TX Panhandles this evening before diminishing late tonight.
High pressure over the SE U. Basically the same theme, building ridge center near the Four Corners region, with a trof over the east U.
The focus of the higher PW is associated with the old frontal boundary that has continued to focus more low level moisture in the offshore/southern coastal areas.
Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow. Anglin A cold front will move eastward through the region tonight, producing scattered thunderstorms over Southwest MT. Expect slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds on Sunday.
Temps and dewpoints are a couple degrees warmer than 24 hours ago from upper 60s near the TN River to the lower 70s elsewhere. High pressure remains in control for one more day with highs near 90.
South of the front, temperatures will reach the low 90s this afternoon. Good agreement that ML CAPE values will be 2000+ J/Kg this afternoon along with dewpoints in the low 70s pooling along the front.
A cold front will spread showers and thunderstorms across the area beginning early Monday morning in the northwest. An incoming weak cold front can be the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Sunday will feature southwesterly flow ahead of another incoming cold front and mostly sunny skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. The surface cold front lags behind this by about 6 hours or so.
315 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 High pressure continues to push eastward out into the Atlantic today.
234 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 (Today and Tonight) The doldrums of Summer continue across West Central Texas for the next twenty-four hours as a lazy ridge will remain parked across the Desert Southwest. Much of western and central Texas will remain on the east side of this ridge.
Cooler temperatures will result in near normal temperatures through the weekend. /Cote' 06Z TAFS: High pressure builds in.
Dry weather should continue through Sunday night with warmer than normal temperatures expected. On Monday a cold front will approach and move through Monday afternoon and night, bringing chances for thunderstorms to the area and ushering back in seasonal conditions for the rest of the week. On Monday a cold front will approach from the northwest, and this will move through the area Monday evening and night.
Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow. Anglin A cold front will move eastward through the region tonight, producing scattered thunderstorms over Southwest MT. Expect slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds on Sunday. Updated 1125 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 (28_06Z TAFs) Upper level trough over Alberta will continue to move eastward overnight. Expect a wind shift this evening to the northwest as the main cold front moves through. Lighter winds and slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday. A cold front will move through the region during the evening hours, bringing in slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday.
Convection has been more widespread and persistent overnight across portions of the coastal waters compared to the previous night, perhaps due to weak upper troughing just west of the area. For today, guidance indicates that this weak upper trough will remain roughly in the same place through the next 12 hours. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s across the southeast big bend to the lower 90s elsewhere.
Temperatures will continue a slow fall through early Sunday morning with lows generally ranging from the lower to mid 70s.
1050 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 An approaching cold front will bring some showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across Roosevelt, Daniel and Sheridan Counties overnight. FGC Previous discussion: The roller coaster ride of ridge/trough/ridge continues for the area. Current chapter is a trough moving in that has the area under a SW flow. Temperatures will be knocked down on Sunday by about 15 degrees from today, thanks to the upper trough overhead.
Some wind gusts up to 15 mph may be possible for central Georgia this afternoon, but other wise winds will be light and variable to calm through Sunday night as the center of the high pressure creeps into North Georgia. 5 inches which will be the highest in more than a week across the area. Some hints of a mid level trough as well but instability looks to be marginal at best. It now appears that only the NW corner of the area will see any increase in pops at all Tue and Wed and even that will only be in the low end chance category.
We will start out Monday evening with northwesterly flow aloft, with high pressure set up across the 4-corners region and a ridge extending north through MT and central Canada.
Not much change expected for the remainder of the week, with seasonably hot/humid conditions in store as the upper ridge shifts farther east.
/issued 248 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ (Tonight and Sunday) With high pressure remaining in control, dry conditions and temperatures near those usual for late July will continue.
Cooler temperatures will result in near normal temperatures through the weekend. /Cote' 00Z TAFS: A cold front will continue to move east.
251 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 The upper level pattern that has remained over the region through most of last week will hang around for one more day with ridging over the western CONUS and the Ozarks on the eastern edge of the ridge. The from will move rather slowly through to the east with showers and storms lingering through much of the day Monday and helping to keep highs in the lower to middle 80s for the most part.
Temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 60s with a few spots still in the lower 70s. Highs should warm into the 85- 90 degree range with the typical urban areas topping out in the lower 90s once again. Overnight lows tonight will dip back into the mid-upper 60s with the urban heat island locations only dropping into the lower 70s.
Dewpoints now in the low to mid 70s across the forecast area so can nix any mention of the frontal boundary that has been spoke of the last several days. Area to remain at the very least under a weakness aloft throughout the forecast between expansive SW CONUS/Plains high and persistent east CONUS/Gulf waters upper trof.
The front should provide a focus for storms development and northwesterly flow aloft, thanks to the center of the ridge continuing to slide east through they day, should steer any storms into our forecast area late tonight into early Monday morning. Various flavors of CAPE measurements keep the best instability across the western third of the forecast area still between 500-1000 J/kg but generally on the lower end of that range. After that, the ridge will rebuild so that the center is generally somewhere over northeast New Mexico into southwest Kansas.
/Issued 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ The slow warming trend continued this afternoon with temps running a few degrees warmer compared to 24-hrs ago. Southerly flow this afternoon was also helping to lift moisture back into the region with dewpoints in the low/upper 60s over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Latest model solutions are trying to speed up the upper level trof axis moving through Monday. the ridge of high pressure is progged to build back eastward into the Plains. The ECMWF continues to be the most aggressive with the eastward push of the ridge compared to the GFS which keeps the CWA on the eastern periphery of the high.
135 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Northern stream trough is phasing with the old SW CONUS impulse, with the bulk of precip beginning to shift out of the fa. Cool front will push into the area later this morning per the advancing northern stream trough, supporting much drier air into the region, esp across far NW SD. CAPE ridging expected into the far western FA over NE WY in the afternoon as a weak impulse pushes into the region forcing Pos theta-e adv. Overall, mean ridging is progged for the central Rockies through most of the week. However, the FA will remain on the northern edge of the ridge with ridge topping impulses likely supporting isolated to scattered TS at times, with temps at or near seasonal norms.
The NE mountains will be favored with the highest chances.
A gradual increase in humidity is expected across the Mid-South for Sunday and Monday as weak south flow on the back side of high pressure brings surface dewpoints back into the upper 60s to around 70. This will result in heat index values reaching the middle to upper 90s with afternoon highs reaching the lower 90s.
Large scale troughing becoming established over the Mississippi Valley that will maintain a NW flow regime aloft.
High pressure will keep the weather quiet through tonight.
254 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 06Z surface data has a warm front running from Lake Huron into southern South Dakota. North of the front dew points were in the low to mid 60s. South of the front dew points ranged from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Peak heat indices this afternoon will be in the lower to middle 90s. Most of the area will have to wait for the approaching cold front before seeing any rain chances. Some marginally severe hail may be possible once the freezing level aloft lowers. Tonight the cold front will slowly move across the area. Monday: Cold front will be moving across the cwa ending the showers and a few storms from west to east with the passage of the front. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
had temporarily squashed the upper level ridge over the western and central U. This system will push a weak cold front southeast across western and central Kansas this afternoon and evening with the front providing focus for thunderstorms to develop. The GFS/ECMWF models both show the upper level ridge building back to the north/northeast through the early to middle part of this week.
High pressure over the SE U. Basically the same theme, building ridge center near the Four Corners region, with a trof over the east U. On Monday, we will see an uptick in moisture and instability, that should result in a chance of some shower and thunderstorm activity, coincident with a developing pre-frontal surface trof.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are lingering behind the trough producing outflow winds and pockets of light to moderate rain. A trough will move through NW CO this evening providing the uplift to fire thunderstorms over the northern mountains and plateaus. At the same time drier airs is cutting into the area, so convection should be limited to the higher terrain. High pressure will build north and become centered over the Great Basin and southwest U.
300 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A cold front will move through the region today, fueling the development of showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon through tonight. The front itself is not expected to reach the forecast area until around 00z, but a weak prefrontal trough could help support some warm-sector-development across far southeast NE and far northwest MO a few hours prior to frontal passage. Initial thunderstorm development along the front may wane as surface instability diminishes during the evening, then a re- invigoration of convection is expected along the elevated cold front prior to midnight, likely occurring around or perhaps just past the KC metro area.
Afternoon highs today should warm into the lower 90s across the region, but some isolated locations could be slightly cooler due to rain and cloud cover. By Monday, a weak cold front associated with a trough of low pressure will move into the region from the northwest. Temperatures will begin near normal on Monday morning, but cloud cover and rain should result in slightly cooler temperatures during the afternoon.
High pressure then slides back in and keeps conditions quiet and pleasant for the middle to end of the week. Expecting most of this activity to weaken/decay this morning as mid level short wave ridge builds into the area. Main cold front will remain well to our west tonight but enough forcing and theta-E advection ahead if it to warrant low chance pops late tonight, mainly far northwest. Sharp short wave trough to move across the area later Monday and Monday night. Pre-frontal trough will be pushed through the region, helping kick off scattered shra/tsra from later Monday morning into Monday night.
A large area of high pressure will maintain widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills and Kern County Deserts through Monday.
1159 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late Sunday.
Westerly flow aloft initially in place early this morning will transition back to southwesterly flow by this evening, between a sprawling ridge of high pressure over southern CA/AZ and a low pressure center just south of Alaska.
356 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Today-Mon: Overall pattern continues to evolve as has been expected over the past 2 nights with a strengthening mid-upper cyclone, which at 3 am was just crossing the Alberta/Saskatchewan border, surging east across Saskatchewan & Manitoba today, then ENE across the Manitoba Ontario border late tonight. The attendant trof would push a cold front across most of KS late tonight as it surges SE across the Upr/Mid MS Valley with the front pushing into South- Central KS late tonight then SE KS Mon morning. Mon-Thu: The ENE-moving upper-deck cyclone lifting across the Southern tip of Hudson Bay Mon evening would enable the STRONG upper-deck high that has been camping out across extreme SW U. & Baja CA to begin spreading slowly NE with the attendant ridge advancing as far NE as the Dakotas by Wed night.
TBW 00Z sounding indicates a light north-west flow in the low levels of the atmosphere. 9 C is warmer compared to the 12Z 500 MB temperature of -7. This drier and slightly warmer mid-level air is responsible for the lack of showers and thunderstorms across the area.
The tranquil weather can be attributed to the ridge of high pressure across the western US. We will also see an associated cold front approach the Natural State, but model guidance continues to suggest that the weak frontal boundary will stall near the state. We'll have a favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms as southerly surface winds help to advect moisture and warmer temperatures into the state. Monday's max temperatures will be cooler due to overcast skies with showers and thunderstorms, and are only expected to reach the lower 80s across the northern half of the state.
146 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late Sunday.
Overall pattern will remain the same as high pressure remains intact.
205 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 An area of high pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Monday.
High temperatures will again range between the low to mid 90s.
The ridge will build into the area tomorrow but a much drier airmass will be over the area. Quieter weather and warmer temperatures will be in store for the area the next couple of days before moisture starts to make a return as high pressure re-centers itself near the Four Corners.
On Monday a cold front will be pushing southeastward through the CWA during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will continue a slow fall through early Sunday morning with lows generally ranging from the lower to mid 70s. A building ridge across much of western conus will provide for deep nw-n flow aloft with first nocturnal wave possibly reaching the Red River Valley area before daybreak Monday, so introducing 20 percent late night Sunday for that region.
1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak mid-level wave will swing into the High Plains tonight and will help initiate convection to the west. I expect this activity to shift east overnight into Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. I was a bit more liberal with POPs ahead of the cold front, given the strong elevated warm air advection nature of the scenario. The best chance of precip will be along the cold front as it moves through during the day on Sunday. Most short term numerical models are giving us at least some spotty light precip with the cold front passage. Some models like the NAMnest are even showing a chance of evening elevated convection behind the cold front, so this is something to watch.
High pressure remains in control and is still centered over the southern Appalachians/southeastern U. A few afternoon showers along with a storm or two possible across the high terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and eastern mountains but most areas will remain dry. Clouds will clear and overnight lows will dip down into the low to mid 60s, which is still a degree or two below normal. Model soundings look rather dry for much of the valley, but some mainly isolated convection will likely form, mainly over the higher terrain and south.
Isodrosotherm analysis has low 70s from Bullitt County to Hardin, Breckinridge to Grayson down into PAH CWA. Temps will be typical of late July, but dewpoints remain fairly manageable in the lower/mid 60s, and this will allow for some deep mixing. Updated at 235 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak cold front will begin moving into the Midwest to start the week. Most of Monday is looking to be dry, though shower and storm chances begin to increase during the late afternoon and evening hours across southern Indiana and perhaps parts of north-central Kentucky as a prefrontal trough kicks off a round of convection.
225 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 An area of high pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Monday.
Did adjust some of the lows up a bit near the Bluegrass, with current readings running warmer than forecast. Satellite shows a few dissipating cumulus in the higher terrain near the VA and TN borders. Strong ridging continues across the eastern US this afternoon with another round of diurnally forced CU across the region. The ridge will hold through Sunday Outside of some valley fog tonight, generally VFR conditions will be seen across eastern Kentucky through Sunday afternoon.
357 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Along the island chain, skies are mostly clear except partly cloudy along the Lower Keys with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting several showers in the Lower Keys, as well on the coastal waters between the Marquesas Keys and Rebecca Shoal Light and southwestward out 20 nm.
506 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak cold front is expected to cross the local area today. While the cooler airmass will likely not reach the area until Monday. while the cooler air will lag the cold front and likely not reach the area until Monday. Expect an area of high pressure across the southwest to be the predominant feature through the extended periods. as the EC extends the southwestern ridge into the plains towards the middle/end of the upcoming work week and the GFS retrogrades this ridge south and west of the local area. think the cooler and slightly more active pattern of the GFS is more plausible.
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today with continued south-southwesterly surface winds, and only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds the afternoon along with some thin, high level clouds to hinder full solar insolation.