Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
226 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A cold front was currently sinking southward across Kansas early this morning, and will continue to move south during the day today. The combination of upper level winds being rather weak and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates will keep storm strength on the lower end.
Monday finds an upper-level ridge centered to our south building north into Wyoming. This ridge keeps conditions dry through Monday night. Wind will generally follow climatological diurnal patterns given the presence of the ridge. Tuesday will see high pressure along the south, with the ridge extending northward into Montana.
1130 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a strong upper-level high pressure system exerts influence on the region. -AM 1130 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (08/06Z TAF period) Strengthening upper level ridge of high pressure across the region will maintain mainly clear skies with VFR conditions through the period.
210 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 An upper level low will pass by to the south on Monday, supporting lots of clouds and plentiful afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
329 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 06z data has weak low pressure near KLSE. The main cold front ran southwest from the low across central Iowa and into southern Kansas. Through sunrise scattered showers and thunderstorms will be seen with the most widespread activity in the highway 20 corridor. After sunrise the cold front will slowly move through the area. Tonight quiet, dry and less humid conditions will be seen as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
The cold front will slowly progress southward into our cwa Monday night through Tuesday night, and essentially become nearly stationary across the region. Highs in the low 90s will combine with dewpoints in the mid 70s to produce heat index readings of 100 to 105. While humidity levels remain high on Tuesday, temperatures will only top out in the low to mid 80s due to plentiful cloud cover and convection.
Looking at water vapor, a weak compact upper low can be noted centered over eastern Arkansas. With our area being further from the upper low, storm coverage will likely be less numerous today in comparison to the last two days. As far as temperatures are concerned, today will be warmer than tomorrow with less storm coverage. Highs today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with highs on Tuesday being a couple degrees cooler in most spots.
Tonight will be cool with lows mostly in the low to mid 50s. Monday will be much warmer as a developing west CONUS ridge works towards the area and advects warmer air aloft into the region. Expect highs Monday to range from the low 80s east to the low 90s west. The upper level ridge (with a NW to SE axis) previously mentioned in the short term discussion will begin to amplify Tuesday bringing warmer air into the region. Thus, this may be a case where Tuesday highs top out in the upper 70s along the Canadian border, but reach the low to mid 90s in the along the South Dakota border.
Otherwise for today, cloud cover and possible precip will help to keep temps a few degrees cooler with most areas remaining below 100 degrees.
1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (This evening through Monday) Cirrus will continue to enter our area from the east near the nose of an upper jet, as a retrograding upper closed low on the southern fringe of an upper high enters AR. Late tonight to near sunrise, a cold front will approach the northern OK border. As the front sags southward a bit throughout the day, and the upper low continues to progress westward, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop.
919 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon to evening hours, are expected daily until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. The upper-level pattern will begin to transition Tuesday as a trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes.
722 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon to evening hours, are expected daily until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. The upper-level pattern will begin to transition Tuesday as a trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes.
1008 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Inverted mid/upper level trough will continue pushing westward across FL today, and will combine with a moist onshore flow to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms with a diffuse inland moving east coast sea breeze.
1012 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A high pressure system centered in the western North Atlantic Ocean will continue to dominate our sensible weather. Thanks to the aforementioned high pressure, we have a somewhat tight pressure gradient and marine observation platforms are currently recording easterly winds near 15 knots. From synopsis, high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through mid-week.
607 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Expect a near repeat of yesterday's weather for today, as the Midsouth remains under a broad upper level ridge, with 500mb heights around 591dm.
556 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge remains off to our northwest today as south to southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of Mexico prevails. The Ridge builds a little over our area on Tuesday.
556 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler, drier air mass to begin the work week - Mostly dry through the work week Today and Tuesday: Rather progressive precipitation has been shifting across the forecast area overnight, expected to exit to the east this morning.
550 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 An approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central Illinois today. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City.
456 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Drier air has filtered into the region in the last 24 hours, as high pressure built into the region. This ridge of high pressure will hold tight on the state during the next 36 hours, bringing nearly clear skies and temperatures jumping back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. With high pressure in the vicinity during the period, winds will remain light, likely no higher than 10mph through Tuesday night. Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected through the period with dominant ridging across the western US.
350 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Upper level high pressure centered over the interior western U.
A closed system of low pressure spinning off the coast of northern California and high pressure over the Great Basin are working to amplify a ridge of high pressure over the Northern Rockies. The ridge will result in temperatures hot enough to warrant Heat Advisories for Clearwater and western Idaho Counties through Tuesday. As the ridge continues to amplify and shift east on Tuesday afternoon, flow aloft takes on a more southerly or southwesterly direction.
519 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 The elongated upper level ridge is in place across southern Colorado with the remnants of a disturbance lifting northeast.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Another subtle inverted mid-level trough will move overhead today. In addition, water vapor imagery early this morning shows a weak upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico, southeast of the Rio Grande River. Lingering moisture combined with another weak inverted mid-level trough and daytime heating should support another round of seabreeze convection on Tuesday.
307 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper ridge pattern has begun setting up across the western U.
612 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today as a cold front tracks south through the area. As of 730Z, the cold front has moved to between Falls City, NE and St. With the upper high still overhead but in a weakened state, mid and upper-level flow remains quite weak. The upper ridge will restrengthen over the Rockies later in the week. Models have trended toward keeping that ridge axis further west which will help keep the hottest temperatures further west with it. The GFS is slightly further west with the ridge axis while the ECMWF is further east with the ridge axis into the Plains leading to a warmer and drier forecast. A cold front moving through the area has helped to triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS and western MO.
06z data has weak low pressure near KLSE. The main cold front ran southwest from the low across central Iowa and into southern Kansas. Through sunrise scattered showers and thunderstorms will be seen with the most widespread activity in the highway 20 corridor. After sunrise the cold front will slowly move through the area. Tonight quiet, dry and less humid conditions will be seen as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
Most of this week will be dominated by a warm air mass under high pressure giving those perfect dry and warm northern Minnesota days.
619 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Dry high pressure remains over the east today at the sfc. Upper ridging begins to build in today, but heights really climb on Tuesday. Return flow on Tuesday and the amplifying ridge will push highs into the upper 80s to upper 90s. The only other point of concern will be the chance for some early morning fog with the low dewpoint depressions and corn fueled sfc level moisture. Starting off Tuesday night, an upper ridge will be centered across the Central Rockies. Northwesterly flow aloft across our region will have helped to push a cold front through the area.
703 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A cold front was currently sinking southward across Kansas early this morning, and will continue to move south during the day today. The combination of upper level winds being rather weak and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates will keep storm strength on the lower end.
This high pressure system dominates the conditions that provide steering for our thunderstorms. Today's activity looks most active over the high country and Navajo Nation, with dryness prevailing over the Utah-Arizona border, similar to yesterday.
Another quiet night weather wise as the longwave pattern aloft continues to be dominated by an upper low of the NorCal Coast and high pressure over the Desert SW.
We will then have to contend with some breezy winds on the backside of the low, especially along the lakeshore. Tuesday should be pleasant as synoptic high pressure builds into the area and the post frontal air mass moderates our temps.
High pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions along with seasonal temperatures today.
306 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Drier air has filtered into the region in the last 24 hours, as high pressure built into the region. This ridge of high pressure will hold tight on the state during the next 36 hours, bringing nearly clear skies and temperatures jumping back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. With high pressure in the vicinity during the period, winds will remain light, likely no higher than 10mph through Tuesday night. Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected through the period with dominant ridging across the western US.
516 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon to evening hours, are expected daily until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. The upper-level pattern will begin to transition Tuesday as a trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes.
633 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 (Today) The combination of a weakening mid-level ridge and increasing deep layer moisture will yield increasing shower and storm chances today.
The closed low continues to spin off the coast along 130W.
/issued 440 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Another subtle inverted mid-level trough will move overhead today. In addition, water vapor imagery early this morning shows a weak upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico, southeast of the Rio Grande River. Lingering moisture combined with another weak inverted mid-level trough and daytime heating should support another round of seabreeze convection on Tuesday.
513 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Expect a near repeat of yesterday's weather for today, as the Midsouth remains under a broad upper level ridge, with 500mb heights around 591dm.
Best chance of showers will be over the far eastern plains with decreasing activity over the higher terrain.
520 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Upper level high pressure centered over the interior western U.
The cold front continues to move east across Iowa and will help push the rain out of northwest Illinois over the next several hours. 06z data has weak low pressure near KLSE. The main cold front ran southwest from the low across central Iowa and into southern Kansas. Through sunrise scattered showers and thunderstorms will be seen with the most widespread activity in the highway 20 corridor. After sunrise the cold front will slowly move through the area. Tonight quiet, dry and less humid conditions will be seen as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
Carried VCTS at the I-10/coastal terminals where rain chances are generally the highest and left out of KAEX, though there is still a low end possibility there.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will prevail with temps quickly warming up this morning, reaching the lower 90s by this afternoon.
Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today and Tuesday. - Upper level high builds back into the area for the latter half of the week. Further north within the moisture plume on the northern periphery of the upper high an area of convection was occurring from eastern Colorado into northeast Nebraska. Cooler temperatures are also expected today with clouds and northerly winds north of the front expected. As the upper high retrogrades westward a northwesterly flow aloft develops and some minor PV anomalies may also move southeast across central into southeast Kansas.
941 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Upper level high pressure centered over the interior western U.
Discussion: The cold front will settle just south of the forecast area tonight, providing a focus for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall across portions southwestern to east-central Missouri tonight. Cooler temperatures and a drop in dewpoints will continue to spread into the area behind the front making for a nice cool night tonight. Temperatures tomorrow, and much of the workweek, will remain near normal as the upper ridge builds over the western states, placing the central conus in northwest flow aloft. There is still some uncertainty as to whether these temperatures will hang around into and through the weekend, but models continue to keep the amplifying ridge axis out west. Given it is still quite a ways out in time, it wouldn't be surprising to see some changes in the placement of the ridge as the weekend approaches.
The lee trough could provide enough lift for precipitation; however, there is hardly any CAPE very little to no 0-3 km shear. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower 60s tonight. Tuesday sees the beginning of our next warming trend as the areas of high pressure expand across the Four Corners/Rockies across the Plains. The frontal boundary lingering over Colorado and southern Kansas is anticipated to move over the area tomorrow, which could lead to a few sporadic showers/storms over the High Plains.
A cold front will bring more concentrated rain chances during the mid-week period. By the end of the week, cooler and drier air set in with high pressure.
(This evening through Tuesday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was located across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma and should drift southward into northwest Texas this evening. An upper-level ridge that has been dominating the pattern will shift northwestward and weaken slightly through tomorrow.
Any remnant moisture from precip this evening could focus patchy fog development overnight into Tuesday morning, though not expecting as much of a low level stratus deck as we have seen in recent mornings as fetch looks more SW with Bermuda ridge shifting more southward.
We remain stuck between Bermuda High and Rocky Mountain High, with weak troughing in between them over the lower Mississippi Valley. Thus our area remains warm and humid under a generally southerly low level flow, helping dewpoints stay in the lower 70s.
GOES-16 satellite trends this afternoon place a weak upper level low centered over Northwest Arkansas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley with the greatest coverage occurring over Arkansas, and isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms towards the Tennessee River. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are predominantly in the lower 90s across most locations. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. The aforementioned weak upper level low is expected to move east on Tuesday, resulting in an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily during peak afternoon heating.
Rain will taper off across the area late tonight and tomorrow, with cooler conditions expected for Tuesday. Currently, an upper wave is moving east through Ontario and a surface cold front is draped from Chicago to just east of Peoria. Skies will be cloudy in most areas to start, but give way to some sun later tomorrow starting in the NW with considerably cooler air in place area- wide. ridge and eastern U. trough with IL right in between. Expect new thunderstorms to develop in the next 2-3 hrs in the vicinity of the cold front as it pushes east.
Highs are expected to mainly top out around seasonal levels today in the L/M 90s besides a few 100s in the lower elevations including the river valleys. The subtropical ridge will remain centered over the Southern Rockies on Tuesday leaving W TX and SE NM in E-NE flow aloft.
-- The low level jet will move eastward as the cold front approaches. Once that happens, the morning convection associated with it will exit and new diurnal/sfc based development of convection along the sfc cold front will percolate this afternoon. --Cooler and drier behind the cold front-- The elongated trough and associated cold front will swing through the region Tuesday. A large upper level low situated over Hudson bay will dominate the pattern this week.
Temperatures are in a tight range from the lower to mid 60s, with mainly light/variable winds. Models carry the ridge slowly east of the region today, allowing for light/variable winds to eventually become east-southeast. Trough digging into eastern Colorado will be the focus for more convection this afternoon.
1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler, drier air mass to begin the work week - Mostly dry through the work week Today and Tuesday: Rather progressive precipitation has been shifting across the forecast area overnight, expected to exit to the east this morning.
Low temperatures tonight largely in the 50s with a few upper 40s not out of the question in the typically cooler locales across eastern upper and interior northern lower. High pressure and much drier air continues to build behind a departing cold front and will produce a northerly breeze with daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for Tuesday.
Upper level high pressure centered over the interior western U.
Mountain locations will have the highest chance of heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding. A few thunderstorms have developed near the desert slopes of the San Bernardino mountains and there is a line of thunderstorms approaching the low deserts from the east as of 130 PM.
Currently, an area of high pressure that was situated over the forecast area early this morning has moved off to the southeast. A cold front will move through the forecast area late tonight through Tuesday morning. It will also be noticeably cooler over northern North Dakota with highs in the 70s along the International border. Meanwhile, in the south where the front won't make it through until late morning or afternoon, highs should climb into the lower 90s.
Persistent cloud cover in this part of the FA has kept temperatures cooler which may inhibit surface temps reaching their convective temps this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with highs mostly in the low-to-mid 90s.
1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 An approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central Illinois today. The area with the highest concern for flash flooding today is the southeastern zones, essentially south of the I-72 corridor. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. An inverted trough is moving into Baja California and another smaller trough is moving through central Arizona. Initially storms will favor the mountains and areas that have received insolation with coverage expanding into the lower deserts by late afternoon and evening. The inverted trough that aided in the development of thunderstorms last evening and overnight was passing over the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise, the upper high will remain near the Four Corners region this week.
/issued 607 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022/ Expect a near repeat of yesterday's weather for today, as the Midsouth remains under a broad upper level ridge, with 500mb heights around 591dm.
Dry high pressure remains over the east today at the sfc. Upper ridging begins to build in today, but heights really climb on Tuesday. Return flow on Tuesday and the amplifying ridge will push highs into the upper 80s to upper 90s. The only other point of concern will be the chance for some early morning fog with the low dewpoint depressions and corn fueled sfc level moisture. Starting off Tuesday night, an upper ridge will be centered across the Central Rockies. Northwesterly flow aloft across our region will have helped to push a cold front through the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 311 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. Quiet weather then for tonight with light S/SW wind and low temps in the low/mid 70s. PoPs just a bit lower than today's, with temps climbing into the low/mid 90s.
1122 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Drier air has filtered into the region in the last 24 hours, as high pressure built into the region. This ridge of high pressure will hold tight on the state during the next 36 hours, bringing nearly clear skies and temperatures jumping back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. With high pressure in the vicinity during the period, winds will remain light, likely no higher than 10mph through Tuesday night. Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected through the period with dominant ridging across the western US.
Weak flow aloft in the higher PWAT airmass will lend toward pockets of locally heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds, though coverage is expected to remain rather spotty.
(Tonight) Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to persist through tonight as a cold front currently draped across southeast Kansas eases into northern portions of the area.
103 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A cold front was currently sinking southward across Kansas early this morning, and will continue to move south during the day today. The combination of upper level winds being rather weak and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates will keep storm strength on the lower end.
Tonight, as the ridging builds in, some radiational fog looks to set up over the central and east due to the recent rainfall and lack of sunshine this afternoon. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over Central Canada with a ridge over most of the U. The trough over south central Canada will head east and then dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes 00z Thu. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the eastern U. 12z Fri with a ridge in the Rockies and plains.
231 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Mid level heights build as high pressure builds northward into the northern Rockies. A backdoor cold front will slide in Tuesday morning and this should translate in slightly cooler highs compared to today.