Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
549 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 Summary: A couple of warm days are on tap before an upper level trough sweeps through and brings stormy weather to our region before ushering in colder air behind it. Highs today and tomorrow will be cooler than yesterday, but still slightly above or near our normal for this time of year with the exceptions of north-central Kansas where it will be a bit cooler. Should see clouds build in on Wednesday, which should help keep temps to only just above normal even ahead of the trough.
Afterwards, a small upper level ridge will move east into Nebraska. This feature, along with high pressure at the surface, should result in clearing skies during the late morning and afternoon aside from some high clouds. There is decent isentropic lift ahead of the trough late overnight into Wednesday morning, particularly in northern Nebraska. Precipitation associated with this system should remain as rainfall since surface and low level temperatures will remain above freezing across the area, and total accumulations should remain light. Rain will taper off during the afternoon as the trough pushes east.
236 AM MST Tue Nov 9 2021 An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the west with cooler temperatures, windy conditions and periodic chances of rain/snow.
Upper level ridging dominates the forecast today, rapidly giving way to a deep upper level trough racing east across the central U. At the surface, high pressure remains in control today before quickly scooting east Wednesday. Temperatures will trend warmer after bottoming out in the upper 30's and lower 40's this morning.
Wednesday is shaping up to be warmer with a slight chance for showers and storms in the afternoon. A deepening upper-level trough over western TX will strengthen the onshore flow over the region, resulting in a broad area of WAA along with PWAT values running around 1 to 1.
539 AM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 Departing high pressure will continue to provide dry and warm weather today. A weak cold front may produce isolated rain showers or sprinkles tonight.
(Today and tonight) Weak cold front currently through NW OK will make slow progress eastward into NE OK later today with minimal impact on temperatures. Otherwise increasing cloud cover is expected to keep temps slightly cooler than recent days.
823 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 Any patchy river valley fog will dissipate within the hour as temperatures warm quickly into the lower to middle 50s.
and Wednesday High pressure was building into the western Great Lakes early this morning. In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, high temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler today. Even though some high clouds may arrive overnight, it appears that good radiational cooling will result in much cooler temperatures than the previous forecast. On Wednesday, WAA will develop as high pressure shifts east of the region.
In addition, some clouds will be possible through the day as an amplified trof moves across the greater region. Farther to the south near the Oklahoma border, warmer highs in the 60s still look on track. Eventually, light southerly winds are possible by evening as a high pressure center shifts off to the northeast of the forecast area. A very amplified upper level trof will move across the Great Plains on Wednesday. This feature will push a cold front across the state. The highest pops associated with higher boundary layer moisture will be located across the Highway 281 corridor.
Short wave trough shearing through the fast 50h flow this morning was bringing mainly mid level clouds to the region along with some light rain in south central sd early this morning. The models and ensembles then show the affects of the elongated upper level low pressure trough out west moving towards our region for tonight. Lift and moisture with this trough will bring clouds in from the west tonight along with light rain after midnight out west. Clouds and rainfall will bring a cooler day for Wednesday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
415 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 Short wave trough shearing through the fast 50h flow this morning was bringing mainly mid level clouds to the region along with some light rain in south central sd early this morning. The models and ensembles then show the affects of the elongated upper level low pressure trough out west moving towards our region for tonight. Lift and moisture with this trough will bring clouds in from the west tonight along with light rain after midnight out west. Clouds and rainfall will bring a cooler day for Wednesday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
Brief mid level ridging will push across the region on Wednesday, keeping conditions rainfree and seasonably mild. However, a mid level trof and associated surface front will move east from the Southern Plains into MO Wednesday night.
All of this is associated with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a short wave trough off the Coast of CA. We will see the short wave trough axis push over NorCal this morning into the very early afternoon. Light scattered showers will continue ahead of this trough passage with them most widespread over the Mountains. Snow levels are right around 7000 feet and we still have surface temps near freezing at the passes with some light snow falling. A few showers may re-develop over the Shasta County Mountains late in the overnight into Wednesday afternoon as they see weak warm air advection associated with a trough off to the NW.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Upper Midwest southwest into western Kansas. In addition, some clouds will be possible through the day as an amplified trof moves across the greater region. Farther to the south near the Oklahoma border, warmer highs in the 60s still look on track. Eventually, light southerly winds are possible by evening as a high pressure center shifts off to the northeast of the forecast area. A very amplified upper level trof will move across the Great Plains on Wednesday. This feature will push a cold front across the state. The highest pops associated with higher boundary layer moisture will be located across the Highway 281 corridor.
Rain and snow continue across much of the area this morning as a warm front moves through the region. Snow was briefly seen at Jerome this morning, but as snow levels will rise behind the warm front, this is not expected to continue. Showers will redevelop this evening as a weak cold front moves through, but amounts will be light.
208 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 Main challenge remains precip trends ahead of the significant upper trof which will move across the Plains on Wednesday. The emerging western conus upper trof will move over the high Plains tonight as low level moisture begins to increase into and over the stalled front as it begins to move northward across southern Kansas. Better moisture transport will lead to modest instability by the afternoon for locations along and just east of the Kansas turnpike ahead of the cold front moving across central Kansas. Otherwise, the trend for the latter portion of the week will be for a much cooler and drier regime as a deep closed low evolves from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes.
1034 AM MST Tue Nov 9 2021 An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the west with cooler temperatures, windy conditions and periodic chances of rain/snow.
Latest model runs are no different, with the NAM/GFS/EC all still on track to drop PAC NW upper level trough across the northern plains Wed night, winding the storm system up as a +100 kt 300 mb jet digs around it.
Trended towards the 90th percentile for temperatures as southeasterly winds and clear skies the rest of the daytime heating will help to aid in warming temps a few degrees warmer than forecast. Afterwards, a small upper level ridge will move east into Nebraska. This feature, along with high pressure at the surface, should result in clearing skies during the late morning and afternoon aside from some high clouds. There is decent isentropic lift ahead of the trough late overnight into Wednesday morning, particularly in northern Nebraska. Precipitation associated with this system should remain as rainfall since surface and low level temperatures will remain above freezing across the area, and total accumulations should remain light. Rain will taper off during the afternoon as the trough pushes east.
/Updated at 1042 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021/ High pressure will slowly move east with a southerly low and mid level flow setting up this afternoon.
1254 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 High pressure at the surface was spread across the Gulf States and into the Carolinas. Another mild day is anticipated Wednesday in advance a stronger trough emerging from the Rockies. Highs should again reach the lower 70s.
Cooler daytime temperatures will then warm by the end of the week. After this, a ridge builds in again switching the wind direction to northerly and upping temperatures to around 5-10 degrees above normal through the foreseeable future.
A slow moving cold front is positioned just to the northwest of the forecast area, and is expected to only make it through areas north of I-44 through this afternoon.
High pressure will remain over the southeast through early Wednesday then begin retreating to the east as long wave trough axis pushes into the region by late Wednesday night.
Watching a longwave trof working over the inter-mountain west. This longwave trof is forecast to traverse the northern plains on Wednesday.
Dry conditions and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend as broad high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. The mid level trough axis had just about cleared our CWA, with fast west to northwest flow aloft pushing mid and high level clouds overhead.
An upper trough will move and deepen from over the Rocky Mountains to the plains states on Wednesday. The base of the upper trough will move over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A Pacific front will move into the area on Wednesday as the trough passes overhead.
1022 AM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 An area of high pressure positioned over the southern Appalachians will slowly build over the southeastern U.
1156 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 Summary: A couple of warm days are on tap before an upper level trough sweeps through and brings stormy weather to our region before ushering in colder air behind it. Highs today and tomorrow will be cooler than yesterday, but still slightly above or near our normal for this time of year with the exceptions of north-central Kansas where it will be a bit cooler. Should see clouds build in on Wednesday, which should help keep temps to only just above normal even ahead of the trough.
219 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 A dry cold front over the Great Lakes will move south tonight and stall over central Virginia on Wednesday morning, before retreating back north during the afternoon.
Prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will barely begin to pull moisture into south central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front. With slightly warmer air being drawn into south central and southwest Kansas within prevailing southeasterlies, not to mention gradually rising surface dewpoints by daybreak, expect lows tonight generally down into the 40s(F). A cold frontal passage by early afternoon will limit climbing temperatures Wednesday.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 74 52 67 45 / 0 0 0 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 72 50 68 46 / 0 0 0 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 46 72 49 66 44 / 0 0 0 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 72 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 50 90.
High pressure will continue to build south and east, moving closer to the local area.
Frontal boundary, currently located near far western sections of Osage/Pawnee counties, will briefly lift north tonight with unseasonably mild conditions overnight as southwesterly winds persist in advance of next upper trough.
A fast moving trough will move into TX Wednesday and increase surface winds overnight. Wednesday the upper trough moves along the Red River Valley and generates scattered storms over North TX in the late afternoon and evening hours. This should clear out most of the low level moisture and prevent the return of overnight stratus. Temperatures ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon will be a little warmer than today with southwest surface winds expected. Wednesday night, temperatures will be slightly cooler than those of tonight, but the coolest air behind the front shouldn't arrive until after daybreak.
Upper level ridging that has been in firm control over the area will begin to give way to an approaching upper level trough located over the western US. Lows tomorrow night will be in the low 50s with possibly some upper 40s in the extreme northern parts of the area.
Prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will barely begin to pull moisture into south central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front. With slightly warmer air being drawn into south central and southwest Kansas within prevailing southeasterlies, not to mention gradually rising surface dewpoints by daybreak, expect lows tonight generally down into the 40s(F). A cold frontal passage by early afternoon will limit climbing temperatures Wednesday. A very amplified upper level trof will move across the Great Plains on Wednesday. This feature will push a cold front across the state. The highest pops associated with higher boundary layer moisture will be located across the Highway 281 corridor.
107 PM MST Tue Nov 9 2021 An area of low pressure is beginning to move onshore along the British Columbia coast this afternoon. With the low moving across southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday, the combination of an increasing pressure gradient and cold air advection will bring gusty winds to the area.
1211 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 Mostly dry and warm weather will continue, though a weak cold front may produce isolated rain showers tonight.
Any patchy river valley fog will dissipate within the hour as temperatures warm quickly into the lower to middle 50s.
Across northeast Kansas, another seasonably warm afternoon is in place, despite yesterday's weak cold front moving through and south of the area. As this occurs, low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies, eventually lifting northeast and driving a cold front eastward. Southerly flow ahead of the low will bring our previous cold front back north as a warm front, with moisture increasing from south to north. A few scattered showers may develop tomorrow morning as isentropic ascent occurs along the warm front. The better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon/evening as the cold front sweeps east through the area. If the lower instability solutions pan out, a widespread rainfall would be the only notable impact.
1238 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 Upper level ridging along the Appalachian chain will support exceptionally warm afternoon temperatures for today and Wednesday.
20z WV satellite shows zonal flow aloft over the Panhandles with a trough translating eastward over the Rockies, with the base of this feature over AZ. Tonight through Wednesday night, expect surface lee troughing to develop to our west and begin to shift eastward as the AZ upper trough quickly approaches. The westerly downslope surface winds should serve to reduce low level moisture before the northern stream portion of the upper trough helps usher a cold front southward Wednesday morning.
139 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 Surface and upper level high pressure ridging maintains a strong hold on the Quad State weather through Wednesday.
In most locations, surface temperatures have risen above freezing, but just barely and that is important. This evening, a cold short wave trough is projected to transit north-central Idaho and west-central Montana right around rush hour. That said, with temperatures just barely above freezing, an intense shower could rapidly bring down temperatures.
Light southeasterly winds will shift from the west and northwest by 18Z tomorrow, becoming gusty behind a cold front that will be moving through the area. An upper trough will move and deepen from over the Rocky Mountains to the plains states on Wednesday. The base of the upper trough will move over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A Pacific front will move into the area on Wednesday as the trough passes overhead.
High pressure will be swept to our east tomorrow, bringing a gradual warming and moistening trend ahead of a deepening trough to our west. High cirrus deck will help to moderate the temperature range through tomorrow, but any locations that see clearing skies late tonight could still drop into the lower 40s.
Even cooler high temperatures can be anticipated Wednesday in the wake of the system. Thereafter, ensembles favored a ridge of high pressure aloft building over the region. This ridge will keep the storm track well north of the area resulting in more dry conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.
Dry and warmer conditions are expected Wednesday on through the weekend across most of the region. High pressure will begin to build in from the SW on Wednesday. The NW flow aloft on Wednesday will keep temperatures close to what we had today before trending warmer later in the week.
High pressure at the surface was spread across the Gulf States and into the Carolinas. Another mild day is anticipated Wednesday in advance a stronger trough emerging from the Rockies. Highs should again reach the lower 70s.
438 PM MST Tue Nov 9 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE A batch of mid and high level clouds are shifting eastward over NM in advance of a weak upper level trough this afternoon. Gusty west-northwest winds will be a concern overnight across mountain tops as the trough moves overhead. These winds will mix down to the lower elevations on Wednesday on the back side of the system. A cold front arriving tonight will bring isolated to scattered showers to northwest and north central New Mexico. Breezy to windy conditions are forecast for Wednesday with cooler, but still near to slightly above average temperatures.
High pressure will push off the Carolina coast which will veer the winds out of the east, with wind speeds around 5 mph in the morning, increasing to around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. High pressure located across the southeast U.
- Much cooler temperatures arrives for the end of the week into the weekend. This has separated dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s north of Interstate 70 to the lower 50s over far southern sections of the area. By early Wednesday morning, weak ascent/WAA will lead to scattered light rain showers ahead of an approaching upper trough. The warm front will lift north during Wednesday morning, settling across northern Missouri by the afternoon.
Over the next few hours, scattered showers will still be present due to forcing from a cold front working its way through the area. Tomorrow, ridging builds over the West Coast with high pressure anchored off the Baja coast.
755 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 High pressure will linger across the Southeast for one more night. Another mild day is anticipated Wednesday in advance a stronger trough emerging from the Rockies. Highs should again reach the lower 70s.
The axis of the upper trough that brought the previous weather system has moved east into the Desert SW this afternoon. Showers continue to linger across the eastern portion of the forecast area behind the trough passage and are forecast to taper off by late evening. Upper level ridging will begin to move into California tomorrow, continuing to build through the end of the week. Dry weather, warming temperatures, and generally light winds return under this high pressure.
The high pressure will move offshore Wed through Wed night as a cold front enters the eastern CONUS and will result in low level winds to become more east and then southeast.
The storm system that brought valley rain and mountain snow is currently exiting the area and will give way to dry, warmer weather in the coming days. Precipitation has ended across the region this afternoon as the trough of low pressure that brought the rain exits the area. Ridging is forecast to build back in over the area starting tomorrow morning.
Temperatures have finally climbed above freezing in these locations so expecting any additional precip to be more of a mix and marginal temps should help limit any impactful additional accumulations. Precip should gradually begin to taper off as we move into the late evening for most areas, although expect some scattered showers to linger across the higher terrain in the Central Mountains, along the Divide and the Wyoming border.
622 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 A dry cold front over the Great Lakes will move south tonight and stall over central Virginia on Wednesday morning, before retreating back north during the afternoon.
Tranquil conditions will continue this evening into the overnight with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching trough. 12Z model suite is in good agreement, bringing a Pacific trough across the central CONUS Wednesday.
A quiet evening is expected while warmer return southerly low-level flow brings increasing moisture to the area overnight. Increasing cloudiness should keep lows tonight in the low to mid 40s over much of the forecast area.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: An area of low pressure is beginning to move onshore along the British Columbia coast this afternoon. With the low moving across southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday, the combination of an increasing pressure gradient and cold air advection will bring gusty winds to the area.
Ascent/height falls ahead of the trough should erode the cap by tomorrow afternoon. The cold front and associated convection will progress eastward across the entire area through tomorrow night.
208 PM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 The storm system that brought valley rain and mountain snow is currently exiting the area and will give way to dry, warmer weather in the coming days. Precipitation has ended across the region this afternoon as the trough of low pressure that brought the rain exits the area. Ridging is forecast to build back in over the area starting tomorrow morning.
246 PM MST Tue Nov 9 2021 Periods of rain and snow are expected over Southwest MT tonight, as a cold front moves through the region. Gusty west winds are expected tonight and Wednesday over North Central MT, as cooler air moves into the region.
337 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 /Updated at 1042 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021/ High pressure will slowly move east with a southerly low and mid level flow setting up this afternoon.
With some patchy breaks in cloud cover today along with warm and humid SE sfc flow, temps will climb a few degrees warmer than yesterday and reach the upper 70s to near 80 this afternoon. Overnight lows will be warmer and reach the 50s and 60s across Southeast Texas. By early Wednesday morning, strengthening onshore flow ahead of an approaching cold front will increase low-level moisture and kick up some isolated coastal showers. Daytime highs, once again, will be slightly warmer and in the low 80s west of I-45 and upper 70s towards the east. By late Wednesday and through the overnight hours, a cold front will approach our northern counties bringing chance PoPs along our northern and northeastern CWA and slight chance PoPs everywhere else overnight.
Light rain is expected to taper off across the N by late Wednesday, followed by warmer and drier conditions through the weekend as a high pressure ridge builds over the West Coast.
Given the warmer and more moist airmass, overnight lows will be on average 5-8 degrees warmer than those observed last night with low 60s in the interior and mid 60s closer to the coast.
Surface and upper level high pressure ridging maintains a strong hold on the Quad State weather through Wednesday.
536 PM CST Tue Nov 9 2021 High pressure continues over the southeast U.
Periods of rain and snow are expected over Southwest MT tonight, as a cold front moves through the region. Gusty west winds are expected tonight and Wednesday over North Central MT, as cooler air moves into the region.
300 AM EST Wed Nov 10 2021 Dry weather should continue today under building high pressure. Rain returns tonight with a crossing cold front.