Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TREK TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES TO IS STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A REX BLOCKING PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE SETTLED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND MID 50S NORTH.
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING. THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH A WARMING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WED.
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT / DEVELOP NORTHWARD TODAY PER LATEST DATA. WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS PASSES. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS WITH HIGH TEMPS LOOKING REASONABLE ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES AS FAR NORTH AS EXPECTED.
1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY. BUT DRIER AIR AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS THAT COVERED MOST AREAS AS OF 0730Z AND KEEP MOST AREAS DRY TODAY. MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS INTO THE LOWER TWENTIES. WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE NEARING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE VALUES TO STABILIZE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. COOL SFC TEMPS SUPPORT THE HIGH SATURATION AT LOW-LEVELS. MAX TEMPS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
100 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDS.
158 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TREK TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES AS THE FRONT CROSSES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
OUR AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID THE DRIEST AIRMASS CURRENTLY IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THIS AREA TENDS TO BE COLDEST ON THE SECOND NIGHT OF THE HIGH. REST OF THE FOREAST AREA TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 33 TO 36 RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
606 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TREK TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES TO IS STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LOW MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COAST SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EVERYTHING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EVERYTHING SE. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A BIT OF A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Strong low level jet ahead of the low level circulation will be pointing directly at the baroclinic zone out over the eastern Plains and into western Missouri late tonight.
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
408 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM WI INTO LOWER MI. 25 INCH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
1017 AM PDT Tue May 19 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California.
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE AND SHEAR APART OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS WYOMING ALONG WITH EXIT REGION OF JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA PLACES UTAH UNDER A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE. ADD TO THIS 500 MB WARM ADVECTION AND ON THE MORE LOCAL SCALE THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS/WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS UTAH COUNTY CAN SEE WHY THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WASATCH FRONT TONIGHT.
ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN.
The main difference now lies with the timing of the low on its east-northeastward track across the forecast area.
207 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
1235 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WHILE LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AT THE MOMENT, A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
THE PGF WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND BRING 15-25 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
1122 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON UPSTREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INVOKE A BETTER LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. THE COLD FRONT DUG SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND STALLED IN THE ABAJO-SAN JUAN MTNS THIS EARLY MORNING.
Southerly flow on the western periphery of low-layer ridging is tapping in to a thin layer of moisture around the 295K surface and forcing some low cloudiness (~3-5kft) west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. /ISSUED 817 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. FOG HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MIXING IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE I295K SURFACE MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REPORTED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MIXING SHOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG BY 16Z AND THIN CLOUDS BY 18Z.
/ISSUED 1027 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL CONT TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
113 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
Cold front is about halfway through the forecast area at this time.
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREA WEST OF I-65. TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN NW AL AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. -RA IS THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 01/07Z-01/08Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE APPROACH OF THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT SSW WINDS TO MORE SW TO W LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
Temperatures currently running some 10-15 degrees cooler behind the front.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL S/WV PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT, COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM ABOUT 05-12Z.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
1027 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL CONT TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
1112 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ 15Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
Cold front will clear the area this afternoon. Cold front is about halfway through the forecast area at this time.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A LINE FROM HARRISON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WEAK COLD FRONT SET TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-STATE AFTER 06Z.
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREA WEST OF I-65. TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN NW AL AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SHRA MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPPER TROUGH WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL KEEP BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.
353 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. AND I EXPECT IT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SO THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD BE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
305 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM CENTRAL TX THRU THE ARKLATEX. EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYER LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. FN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
1228 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON UPSTREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INVOKE A BETTER LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED IN THE SNAKE BASIN ALL DAY EVEN UNDER UPPER TROUGH. GENERALLY 25 TO 30 DEGS ALTHOUGH ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME HAVE CLIMBED A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.
A weak cold front sagging south of Interstate 20 will stall by early this evening roughly along a line from near Sterling City to just south of San Saba. The low clouds should remain east of the KJCT terminal this morning. The combination of a low level thermal ridge and some vertical mixing will be bring gusty west winds and highs in the lower to possibly mid 80s across the southern 2/3 of the area.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
In either case, widespread low ceilings obscuring the higher terrain should be expected across all of western Montana and central Idaho into Monday morning.
WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. BUT SPEEDS IN THE LOW LEVEL ARE NOT SO IMPRESSIVE. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U. ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH FL ON WED THEN INTO CENTRAL FL BY THU.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN IL DOWN INTO NORTHEAST TX. POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE DESERT SW TONIGHT AND WILL START TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MON. RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT. FOR NOW WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH IS WHERE WE STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS 6 INCHES OR GREATER. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END TUE EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. VERY COLD AIRMASS IS THEN FORECAST TO SPILL ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS WED NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE HINTED TOWARDS THE LOWERING OF CEILINGS.
UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.
1210 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 COLD FRONT NEAR A SEP-GYI-TUL LINE AT 18Z AND SETX FIRMLY IN SW FLOW INLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE GULF AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR CLL/DKR LINE.
1053 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SO THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD BE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS N OF THE AREA TO INCREASE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF STREAM.
AVIATION IMPACTS LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM HIGH WIND AND VFR TODAY WITH DIMINISHING N-NE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL 40-60SM SW OF LBB.
222 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LAST NIGHT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND THEN IT STRETCHES BACK UP NORTHWEST FROM PORTALES TO RATON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TO THE LOWER 40S. WHICH IS BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212 AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREA OF THE SISSETON HILLS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER.
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA.
Roads tonight may become locally slick in locations that see temperatures drop into the low 20s.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CO INTO KS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL SUPPORT A STRAY -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
OTHERWISE THERE IS MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND THINK MESOSCALE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WE DONT INTRODUCE THE STRATUS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
345 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DELIVER MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.
439 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. GRADUALLY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND MIXING HAS BROUGHT DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND BROUGHT SURFACE WINDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL AS MIXED OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN 70 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM 06Z-12Z OVERNIGHT.
155 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 A weak cold front was in the process of moving through the Ozarks this afternoon. Winds will turn out of the south again Monday morning as low pressure moves into the plains. A storm system will move towards the region through the day Monday with a warm front lifting across the area.
This upper level low will move through the Desert Southwest tonight, into the Central Rockies tomorrow, then into the Central High Plains by tomorrow night. Towards the surface, an area of low pressure will intensify southeast of the area with an associated frontal boundary stretching eastward across northern Texas and Oklahoma. Precipitation type has been the main challenge for todays forecast with 12Z models showing warmer air than previously shown. However, there may be an hour or two window where freezing rain could fall around sunrise tomorrow. A wintry mix is expected in between these two areas with most places changing all over to rain tomorrow afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to fall into the upper 20s with highs tomorrow ranging from around freezing across west central Kansas to upper 40s across south central Kansas.
256 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 CURRENTLY - THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS FLORIDA. ORGANIZING LOW TO MID LEVEL VEERING IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST - THE KEYS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE KEYS LATE IN THE WEEK.
433 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DELIVER MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.
WHERE DOES IT TRACK? 150+ KT 300 MB JET WILL HELP TAKE CLOSED 500 MB LOW/TROUGH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN SLIDING THE LOW TO THE WI/IL BORDER BY 00Z WED. CLOSER TO THE LOW. A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR CHICAGO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF AND THEN IT WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA.
1012 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 15Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
955 AM PST SUN JAN 31 2016 An upper level trough will be over the region through Monday.
620 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Meanwhile, an area of showers beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70. Next clipper system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. However, general trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP's by about 20- 30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper trough).
LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NORTH BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTH.
EXPECT PRECIP TO ENTER INTERIOR SE GA AROUND 06Z AND THEN EXIT NE FL BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SE U. SE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AND THEN W AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS.
1030 PM MDT WED APR 6 2016 IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWS RIDGE/TROF/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FROM W TO E W/ WY UNDER NW FLOW. JET AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SW MOVING SWD FROM SCNTRL CANADA INTO THE HIGH/NRN PLAINS. WEAK LEE SIDE LOW/TROF EXIST OVR THE BIGHORN BASIN AND NERN/ERN WY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL CONDITIONS.
BUT THERE IS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS TOO. WITH COOLER AIR TO THE EAST ANY -RA/SN WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EARLY. WITH CLOUDS AND ONLY MINOR COLD ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. OPTIMISTICALLY HAVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 40S BUT MAY NEED REVISITING DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.