Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
306 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 Upper low still spinning over Northern Ontario will slowly slip east into Quebec by Thursday. This will push a thermal trough across Southeast Michigan, roughly between 18-00Z, and serve as a focus for showers. Cooler air aloft will not arrive until well into the heating cycle, allowing max temperatures to again reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s. A large dome of high pressure will then build into much of the eastern U. 00Z NAM is aggressive with dropping a cold front into Southeast Michigan in response, while other models remain much further east with this boundary. Temperatures will respond to good insolation on Thursday by rising into the low/mid 70s, putting high temperatures right near seasonal averages.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s with highs on Wednesday will reach into the middle 60s to around 70 with partly cloudy skies.
556 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 The region remains under northwesterly flow aloft, in between a large low pressure centered over Ontario and upper level ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, cool high pressure continues to build south from the Dakotas. Point forecast soundings look fairly dry in the low levels so not expecting much accumulation, if any. Otherwise, a warm front will lift north into the southern CWA by Thursday afternoon which will be the focus for additional thunderstorm activity mainly in our eastern counties.
This disturbance will continue to affect portions of the area Thursday continuing the chance for scattered showers/storms with the highest chances remaining in SW/S portions of the fa.
303 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Early morning frost advisory continues, otherwise a sunny and warmer short term period. Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a clear sky with a mid/upper level ridge parked over the Northern Rockies. The mid/upper level ridge, (700mb/500mb ridge axis) shifts into western and central ND Thursday afternoon/evening, providing for another sunny day with warmer air, and afternoon highs soaring through the 80s.
High pressure will head to the east of Arizona today and tonight. This flow regime will have the dual influence of warming mid- to upper-level temperatures and also producing some drying in the lower-levels.
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with slightly cooler air today and tomorrow, then hot and dry conditions redevelop for the weekend.
Low to mid level moisture will increase across the CWA this morning into the afternoon as a 500mb trough moves over west Texas. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the lower and middle Rio Grande valley and northeast ranchlands tonight into Wednesday as a 500mb trough moves across west Texas.
Another very warm day will occur over the Northern Rockies today but changes are coming as the recent high pressure shifts east and is replaced by southwesterly flow. Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight through Thursday with a cold front passage. Noticeably cooler temperatures will occur on Thursday behind the cold front with highs nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to Wednesday for west central Montana.
233 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Warmer air will be in place today, with some increase in mid level moisture. A ridge of high pressure will be over eastern Colorado through midday Thursday then shift east, ahead of a weak upper level disturbance. At the surface, a trough is progged to be along the foothills. Some weak downslope will be present west of the trough with better moisture over the plains as southeasterly winds increase ahead of this boundary in the afternoon.
345 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Upper ridging is strengthening across the central to northern Rockies and building into the northern plains this morning with northwest flow over the CWA. Both upper level and thermal ridge will cross the CWA Thursday bringing temps well into the 80s across the CWA.
Upper ridge axis will slip slowly east across the CWA today through Thursday boding for warm temperatures with 7H temps warming to about 7-8C.
A stronger storm currently in Wayne County, TN has the highest potential for impacting us and would impact Lincoln County, TN and the northern part of Lauderdale County, AL. Didn't edit the lows much which are still expected to drop into the lower 60s. With the cold front running out of steam, showers and t-storms may tend to linger. However, the 850 mb ridge will also be building into the mid South, so synoptic forcing will continue to be depleted. As the 8h ridge weakens, the axis of plentiful and deep moisture along the Gulf states will shift northeast Thursday night. The NAM may be overemphasizing a "warm front"/convergence band in this scenario, but cannot ignore it.
Those showers and associated cloud cover will diminish tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U. and on the west coast with a ridge over the Rockies 12z Thu. The trough remains over the ern U. through 12z Sat with the ridge getting squeezed into the northern plains as the trough in the western U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a persistent trough over the ern U. with what look like an omega block in Canada with troughing to the east, ridge over Nunavut and Manitoba and troughing over the Canadian Prairies 12z Sat. Troughing continues to remain over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun through 12z Tue, then a ridge moves into the area for 12z Wed.
The upper low that has been rotating over Ontario and bringing rain showers and clouds at times for the past few days will finally start to pull further eastward today. Even with the fairly cool air mass and clouds lately we have been trending a bit cooler than actual temperatures. Today will see more sunshine and warmer air moving in, so bumped up highs a bit into the low to mid 70s.
/issued 728 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017/ Upper level ridge gradually moves eastward into the Atlantic waters along with surf the evening and tonight. ace high pressure.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough extending from the Great Basin to the Baja Peninsula with southwesterly flow over TX. The stationary front will remain in place today and an upper level short wave trough will move across the region.
242 AM MST Wed May 31 2017 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across the lower desert.
502 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Today will be sunny with light northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph and high temperatures in the lower 70s across the region. Early morning satellite imagery showed the last of the low clouds exiting to the east, with clear skies across much of Minnesota. The ageostrophic convergence associated with the upstream ridging is the driving force behind the H500mb height rises that become centered across the region this afternoon and will literally squash any chance for cloud development. The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday which will mark the beginning of a much warmer pattern for a few days. PWATs begin increasing markedly Thursday night with the arrival of an elevated warm front.
Strong high pressure aloft will move east of Utah today.
Brownsville radar currently shows some weakening convection across the higher terrain of the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon.
Both such localations of development seem to be associated with spokes of energy aloft/vort maxes still rounding the base of the mean long wave trof. It looks like they will be slowly drug southeastward across the FA today as the mean long wave trof axis shifts slightly eastward. Low 80s/Low 60s will largely be the rule, with some slightly cooler readings early in the period, and all readings warming by Fridy into the mid 80s/mid-upr 60s.
cold front #1 has exited the SE CWA and the next cold front from the Windy City thru Lincoln Home Historic Site and out to Fort Leavenworth is moving this way. The high resolution models have been fickle with convective initialization and how the convection will unfold. Ahead of the disturbance there is some llvl moisture and some mid deck but plenty of sunshine so temps will get into the low to mid 80s again before sct convection develops again. High pressure will still be in the vicinity at the surface so will lean toward the drier ECMWF/GEM and keep PoPs low. Thu looks to be a pleasant day with slightly cooler temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
247 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Upper trough which has had a strong grip on out weather the last few days will continue to relax eastward today as Rockies ridge nudges toward the Northern Plains. Mixing just ahead of the ridge axis could allow some 10 to 15 mph winds around SW MN and the IA Great Lakes through midday, but likely as strong as would see.
630 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front will move southeast across NC late this evening and overnight. Weak high pressure will build in from the NW tonight and Thursday. With the front expected to be south of the area by sunrise Thursday, weak high pressure will bring drier air into the region. However, with plenty of sun and highs still in the mid 80s to near 90, it will not be cooler, just drier! Expect mostly clear skies Thursday night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s SE.
Will lean more toward the high resolution models and ramp pops up during the day.
Temperatures should be a bit cooler today, but still in the mid 70s, as drier air settles over the area. The broad circulation around the Ontario upper low will be slowly shifting eastward Thursday, allowing the ridge over the Rockies to move into the Plains.
119 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the midwest will move across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will be overhead on Thursday.
352 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A broad upper level trough will maintain daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, save for Thursday, through the weekend. Dry conditions will return tonight as high pressure builds back in over the forecast area.
327 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front will move southeast across NC late this evening and overnight. Weak high pressure will build in from the NW tonight and Thursday. With the front expected to be south of the area by sunrise Thursday, weak high pressure will bring drier air into the region. However, with plenty of sun and highs still in the mid 80s to near 90, it will not be cooler, just drier! Expect mostly clear skies Thursday night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s SE. Weak high pressure will bring drier conditions Thursday as the moisture gets suppressed to our south. A bit cooler air will also reduce highs into the lower to mid 80s.
427 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward along the Gulf coast with some weak troughing in the forecast area during the rest of the week. The high-resolution models indicate little coverage. The guidance consensus supports pops 10 to 20 percent with the higher values in the southeast section closer to deeper moisture.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs into the mid 70s.
An upper level ridge will be found above the Rockies with an upper level low over eastern Canada. The upper level ridge moves closer to the Plains late week with an upper level trough digging into the western United States.
430 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Thursday.
602 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front will sweep east and cross the region accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
Surface analysis this morning places a weak cold front over Southern Missouri and Western Kentucky and remnants of a quasi-stationary boundary over the Mid-South. This low stratus is anticipated to gradually dissipate this morning.
This is in response to a strong short wave trough that is moving north to northeast and precipitation is expected to spread into northern Lake County later this morning. The trough is expected to push east into the Lakeview area this afternoon and precipitation is expected to taper off to scattered showers. An upper level trough will remain over the Pacific NW on Thursday.
Do not expect storms to be severe, but with a relatively low freezing level for this time of year some small hail and gusty winds will be possible.
400 AM PDT Wed May 31 2017 A weak system will move through the interior today to bring light amounts of rain and cooler temperatures. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week.
1056 PM PDT Tue May 30 2017 Thunderstorms move into the region tonight ahead of a cold front that will bring strong gusty winds and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday and for the rest of the week, expect near seasonal temperatures, breezy winds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain. /SVH 06Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will hang out over the region.
01 An upper trough moving across the Great Lakes and southern Canada pushes a frontal boundary into GA and somewhat drier air spreads into the northern zones.
225 AM PDT Wed May 31 2017 Cooler temperatures return today along with showers across northeast California and far western Nevada.
Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb ridge across the southeast states that will continue to nose west across the central portions of our CWA through tonight.
349 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over the region for one more day.
213 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 An upper level trough will remain centered over eastern Canada through the week. On the other hand, it is good to mention as the ridge tops will probably be shrouded in fog. The eastern half or more of the CWA will start out with a serious handicap on temps - the low stratus and fog. Well mixed soundings and mean 850mb temps of 8-12C should translate to max temps from the mid 60s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the upper 70s across the Lower Susq Valley. In the longer range, the persistent upper level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast conus will dominant our wx pattern Fri-Mon, producing frequent opportunities for showers and temperatures around to slightly below normal.
There is another warm day on tap with increasing cloudiness as a low pressure system approaches and some mountain streams are running high due to the last gasp of snowmelt. A few showers may spring up today across northern Nevada then a cold front will bring some thunderstorm activity on Thursday. High pressure will slowly move east of Nevada and a strengthening southwesterly flow will bring continued warmth to the LKN CWFA today and dry conditions will continue for the most part today as well.
426 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Today will be sunny with light northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph and high temperatures in the lower 70s across the region. Early morning satellite imagery showed the last of the low clouds exiting to the east, with clear skies across much of Minnesota. The ageostrophic convergence associated with the upstream ridging is the driving force behind the H500mb height rises that become centered across the region this afternoon and will literally squash any chance for cloud development. The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday which will mark the beginning of a much warmer pattern for a few days. PWATs begin increasing markedly Thursday night with the arrival of an elevated warm front.
349 AM PDT Wed May 31 2017 An upper trough will bring a slight chance of showers to interior Northwest California today and near normal temperatures to the region. An upper trough will continue to bring mid and high level clouds to the region today. A few light showers impacted Trinity and Mendocino counties overnight and some additional showers could develop this afternoon as the trough gradually moves east. Near normal temperatures are expected today and on Thursday with the trough overhead. The trough has disturbed the marine layer resulting in less stratus than recent days. As the trough moves east on Thursday the marine layer inversion will begin to re-establish itself.
Seasonably cool, breezy conditions will persist through midweek with a slight chance of showers early this morning as an upper level trough moves inland.
Mid and upper level debris cloudiness will occasionally filter the sunshine but most areas will see high temperatures in the lower 90s, except upper 80s at the coast. With the axis of the longwave trough passing over the east coast, high pressure will remain in the western Atlantic, with a relative weakness left over the Peninsula. 9") to support at least scattered storm coverage, with the highest chances over the interior where more vigorous boundary collisions are anticipated from mid to late afternoon. While flow in the low levels will be quite light, west winds will dominate above 15,000 feet, spreading clouds and even some anvil debris rain back toward the coast in mid to late afternoon.
Carrying the highest (likely) PoPs southwest of a Sterling City to Mason line, with the lowest (20-30) PoPs north of Interstate 20. We are carrying 40-60 PoPs tonight with the highest rain chances across western parts of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Broad upper level trough will continue across Texas and New Mexico.
Water vapor imagery showing upper ridge just moving into western Wyoming this afternoon. Upper low that was over the Great Lakes area yesterday, slowly moving north northeast. Upper ridge axis overhead for Wednesday with 700mb temperatures climbing to +8C. Upper ridge axis moves east Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a stronger low pressure system tracking into western Montana and western Wyoming Thursday night.
342 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Isolated showers and thunderstorms over central Illinois early this morning are occurring along a weak cold front that extends from central Illinois into northern Missouri. A better chance for development will occur late this evening and overnight when the low level moisture convergence increase over the Plains which will increase the chance that a MCS will develop over eastern KS/western MO that will eventually move across central Missouri late tonight.
326 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 The region remains under northwesterly flow aloft, in between a large low pressure centered over Ontario and upper level ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, cool high pressure continues to build south from the Dakotas. Point forecast soundings look fairly dry in the low levels so not expecting much accumulation, if any. Otherwise, a warm front will lift north into the southern CWA by Thursday afternoon which will be the focus for additional thunderstorm activity mainly in our eastern counties.
Models tend to break the cap in the early to mid afternoon with dewpoints in the low 60s and sufficient CAPE around 1500 J/kg. Another round of storms is expected to develop late tonight as the low level jet ramps up in conjunction with another subtle impulse in the mean mid- level flow. As for temperatures, highs today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows tonight warmer than previous nights in the low 60s. By Thursday heights rise with weak upper ridging forecast to build across the area.
Tonight will likely remain dry as well, but rain chances start to increase on Wednesday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. The larger picture is that plenty of moisture will be in place as an upper level trough and associated disturbance swings through the western half of the state and into Oklahoma by Thursday night. The best rain chances through Thursday evening will be across roughly the northwest half of the region, closer to the upper level trough.
A stagnant upper level low centered over the Hudson Bay will drive the weather across the eastern U.
The large upper level low will continue to pull off to the east today, as high pressure moves in from the west. Upper level heights will build considerably through Thursday, as a massive upper level ridge edges eastward across the central U.
259 AM PDT Wed May 31 2017 An upper trough will push across the area today and bring cooler temepratures. High pressure will return to the area on Thursday providing for a warming trend and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. An trough of low pressure will move across the region today. The trough will also bring cooler air with high temperatures expected to be 8-12 DEG F cooler today. Today's cooling will be short-lived as high pressure begins to rebuild over California on Thursday.
Clouds associated with an exiting upper trough will slowly clear overnight as an upper ridge transitions into the Plains and high pressure builds in at the sfc. By late Wednesday afternoon, winds will become more southeasterly ahead of some lee side troughing.
Vorticity maximums continue to rotate through WI, around the large low pressure area over Ontario, Canada. High temps in the lower 70s over much of srn WI with just enough wly flow to prevent lake breeze development. Clearing for tnt with light winds as high pressure approaches from the northern Great Plains. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin on Thursday.
222 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure Thursday.
236 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 An upper level trough will remain centered over eastern Canada through the week. On the other hand, it is good to mention as the ridge tops will probably be shrouded in fog. The eastern half or more of the CWA will start out with a serious handicap on temps - the low stratus and fog. Well mixed soundings and mean 850mb temps of 8-12C should translate to max temps from the mid 60s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the upper 70s across the Lower Susq Valley. In the longer range, the persistent upper level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast conus will dominant our wx pattern Fri-Mon, producing frequent opportunities for showers and temperatures around to slightly below normal.
SE Oregon and SW Idaho reside within a southwest flow aloft, between an upper ridge to our east and an upper trough to our west. The upper trough will continue to push eastward tonight and will reach our area on Thursday. Showers will increase coincident with the upper trough, with a chance of showers in the valleys and showers likely in the mountains Wednesday afternoon.
Models indicate a region of drier air at the lower levels from the western Gulf of Mexico into the coastal plains. A short wave trough will be along the Rio Grande by 18Z. Expect scattered convection/MVFR ceilings and vsbys will be possible this afternoon for the Brush Country as the short wave trough moves northeast into the Hill Country and south central Texas. May not see as much convection along the coast as an axis of drier air in the low levels will remain in this region.
Lows tonight should range from the mid to upper 60s inland and in the lower to mid 70s near the immediate coast and beaches.
In addition, slight chance pops have also been added for our extreme northern tier this afternoon as isolated convection is possible during maximum heating along the higher terrain of the Ouachitas. This will allow rain chances to increase into the high chance to likely categories areawide on Thursday with the initial disturbance.
353 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A cold front will move southeast across NC late this evening and overnight. Weak high pressure will build in from the NW tonight and Thursday. With the front expected to be south of the area by sunrise Thursday, weak high pressure will bring drier air into the region. However, with plenty of sun and highs still in the mid 80s to near 90, it will not be cooler, just drier! Expect mostly clear skies Thursday night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s SE.
Early morning water vapor imagery with RAP13 500mb heights showed an upper level ridge across the eastern Rockies, with subsidence over the Midwest. Did increase temperatures toward the high end of guidance since the atmosphere is very dry. The one thing we had going for sparking off convection was decent convergence along the warm front, and now that has weakened considerably with a more veered flow in advance of it. Highs in the lower 90s appear to be a good bet across southwestern MN with a favorable southwesterly flow off the Buffalo Ridge.