Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
627 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. Sfc hi pres from the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley gradually builds into the mid-Atlantic region today. OP models showing a weakening trough aloft diving across the region Fri. A weak upper level trough will bring a slight chc of SHRA Fri afternoon/evening. A warm front is forecast to move through the FA late in the upcoming weekend which may result in ISOLD-SCT convection. Northerly winds 10-15 kt will continue throughout on the day on Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure become centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Easterly to southerly winds will be below 10 kt with high pressure remaining over the region,then slowly moving off the coast.
Will be watching those eastern location temps closely as areas immediatly inland of lake may get a few degrees warmer before lake breeze moves in. With WI being on the northern periphery of the high, can expect light westerly winds with a few diurnally driven clouds to develop through the afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be warmer temps in the mid to upper 60s, but would not be surprised to see a few spots crack 70 degrees. Overnight temps will be warmer in the 40s as well, thus not expecting any frost potential through the end of the week.
522 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 Longwave trough continues to slowly drift east across the central US, with modest northwesterly flow in its wake across WY. Daytime heating will bring enough sfc instability to spark a few showers along the higher terrain of the Absarokas and Big Horn Mountains, with the NW flow possibly moving a few showers into the western Big Horn Basin and greater Johnson County. Showers will be a little more numerous Friday due to slightly higher temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 70s. The upper level, flat ridge will continue shifting east across the forecast area with the trough over Idaho on its heels.
Temperatures at 500mb are nearly a degree warmer than this time yesterday; similarly, PW has increase, with mid level drying present yesterday now moistening. Highs in the low to mid 70s across the north, low 80s southward.
/Issued 245 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021/ Dry weather is anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today and Friday as high pressure prevails at the surface as does a northwesterly flow aloft.
605 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 The ridge axis extending from the Great Lakes region southwestward into Kansas will slowly slide to the southeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. The latest HREF, as well as NAM and GFS model runs are still indicating a warm front will develop across northern Kansas into central Missouri with a complex of showers and storms developing on the nose of a 35 to 40 kt low level jet over eastern Nebraska late tonight.
Forecast soundings indicate a deeply mixed environment, yet with high pressure nosing in, the overall flow is weak. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer, with upper 30s in the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom, and 40s for the rest of the region. On Friday, despite the incoming ridge and relatively dry surface conditions, enough instability is in place to produce scattered showers during the afternoon. Initiation should begin across the high terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and then showers will shift southeastwards as they develop.
630 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and lingering low-level moisture will maintain wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
419 AM PDT Thu May 13 2021 Slightly cooler today as onshore flow returns.
High pressure will continue to settle into the region today, with a ridge building into the Plains. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the short term period making for a rather pleasant end to the work week.
642 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 255 AM CDT High pressure remains in control of our sensible weather here, which will continue our unusually quiet stretch for mid-May.
Otherwise, skies are clear this morning with the high pressure just off to our northwest. Skies will clear this evening allowing overnight temperatures to bottom out into the lower 40s.
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary looks to meander across/near the CWA in advance of a series of upper troughs emerging from the Intermountain West. Rainfall during this stretch may exceed two inches in most locations, with the highest amounts over the southwestern half of the CWA where localized amounts in excess of three inches is possible. While specific amounts and locations of the highest rain amounts remain unresolvable at this time scale, the potential for river flooding during this time is increasing.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Southerly flow will ensue today in the wake of the departing high pressure, although with the Gulf cutoff, moisture return will be slow. Given 925-850mb temperatures will moderate 1-2 degrees from yesterday, healthy mixing, and nothing substantial in terms of cloud cover, do not see why slightly warmer readings would not be achieved today. The highest POPS look warranted temporally during the daytime Friday as the 700mb low passes across the area, and spatially south of Interstate 94.
As high pressure sinks southward, strong subsidence will aid in cloud decrease thus bringing back clear skies to the area by Friday.
720 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 The upper flow becomes more northwest during the short term as the upper ridge builds into the eastern states. 41 High pressure remains in control to start heading into the weekend which will maintain dry conditions across the area.
336 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 Only a few minor changes for today as warmer air moves over Colorado. The low level moisture will mix out, though there could still be a few hundred joules of CAPE. Only other changes were a few patches of fog around Limon and in Weld county in the early morning, and a little more wind over the ridges.
Current PoPs for this afternoon look good centered around the high terrain as several vort lobes pass over the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 47 74 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 45 70 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 45 71 46 75 / 10 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 40 68 42 71 / 10 10 10 0 10.
805 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week.
Once this low deck of clouds clears across the south east MEI, HBG, and PIB will join the other sites in VFR. /JNE/ A high pressure centered over the Midwest has taken control over the Mid and Deep south. High pressure at the surface will wedge southwest across our area and keep conditions dry as broad upper ridging/some northwest flow aloft will be in place.
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary looks to meander across/near the CWA in advance of a series of upper troughs emerging from the Intermountain West. Rainfall during this stretch may exceed two inches in most locations, with the highest amounts over the southwestern half of the CWA where localized amounts in excess of three inches is possible. While specific amounts and locations of the highest rain amounts remain unresolvable at this time scale, the potential for river flooding during this time is increasing. Moisture is very limited still though with the area still under the influence of high pressure.
344 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A low amplitude and transitory ridge will move through the Rocky Mountain region through tomorrow. This will usher in temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees above normal today and slightly warmer tomorrow. The jet cresting the leading edge of this ridge will be over the northern mountains this afternoon providing the weakest ascent.
High pressure centered over Missouri this morning will maintain northerly winds around 10 knots through the day becoming light overnight. High pressure centered over eastern Missouri and Illinois will maintain a generally light northerly flow through the day. The pleasant conditions will continue through Friday with winds beginning to veer east then southeast Friday night as the high becomes centered near the Blue Ridge mountains.
1003 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week.
Temperatures are rising through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Is this a relic cold pool, pressure advection from a collapsing thermal trough, or a legitimate and propagating outflow boundary? We are unsure at this time. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat east today as a weak trough eases southward across Florida. Thereafter, high pressure building from the eastern United States into the western Atlantic will bring freshening easterly breezes starting Friday night.
There may be some shower remnants across the far east and into west central MN Friday morning but forcing potential really drops off in the afternoon as the upper low slides farther east taking the mid level moisture with it.
556 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A warming trend continues today w/ rising heights aloft associated with broad & flat upper-level ridging. This will definitely not be a dry pattern as the CWA will remain on the northern fringe of the building ridge, leading to continued active west-to-northwest flow in the mid and upper levels. More widespread convection will be likely on Friday as the upper-level ridge slowly breaks down ahead of a deepening western US trough.
Aloft, a broad trough extends from near the Bay of Campeche north into the Great Lakes region. Outside of the showers close the island chain, nighttime microphysics satellite shows mid and upper level clouds at times streaming in from the west due to the upper level trough. Have maintained slight chances for the Lower and Middles Keys, with higher chances across the Upper Keys due to convection drifting off the mainland.
909 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure promoting tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with clear conditions prevailing across most of the area. Winds will remain out of the north, reinforcing this cooler, continental air mass. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures should make it into the lower 70s across much of the area once again. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the short term period making for a rather pleasant end to the work week.
Mainly rain this morning as all active thunderstorm activity has remained over the warmer loop current of the Gulf. The weak cold front will continue southward today with winds shifting to the north and northeast behind it.
629 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week.
340 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A warming trend continues today w/ rising heights aloft associated with broad & flat upper-level ridging. This will definitely not be a dry pattern as the CWA will remain on the northern fringe of the building ridge, leading to continued active west-to-northwest flow in the mid and upper levels. More widespread convection will be likely on Friday as the upper-level ridge slowly breaks down ahead of a deepening western US trough.
Drier air working in will give us some breaks in the clouds today which will allow temps to be a bit warmer than the nice cool May day we just experienced. Ahead of this wave, embedded H5 energy will eject across the region as the ridge breaks down.
/issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021/ Will start the day with an upper ridge over the Western US and a trough over the east.
640 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 Expansive high pressure across the Great Lakes region will maintain light winds through the TAF period. The dry ambient airmass associated with this high will sustain mainly clear skies other than few to scattered high based clouds late this afternoon/evening. The combination of ridges will reinforce the dry airmass in place resulting in mainly clear/sunny skies through Friday night.
This will help the area cool into the lower 40s overnight.
Morning Update It's a beautiful Thursday across the Mid-South! High pressure across the Ohio Valley region has led to dry and sunny conditions. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s today. Highs will then climb into the lower to mid 70s on Friday.
Considered including the lakeshore counties in the Freeze Warning as well given last night's cold readings in Van Buren and Allegan Counties, but thinking any sub freezing temps there would be relatively brief just before sunrise. --Warm days and cold nights-- In addition to the very dry air mass and dry soils contributing to much colder than guidance overnight lows, they have also been leading to warmer than guidance daytime max temps due to super adiabatic lapse rates close to the ground.
Also updated morning and afternoon temperatures, which were slightly warmer to start off, and slightly increase this afternoon's high temperatures across the region.
231 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 Storms have been confined to the offshore waters beyond 20 nm from the coast today where warmer water allows some surface based lift. The cold front is continuing its trek south and will clear Fort Myers this evening. A wave of low pressure should develop on the front off the southeast U. Enhanced northeast flow will develop between high pressure to our north and the departing low and remnant frontal boundary to our south and east.
Tonight and Friday High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually drift southeast tonight into Friday.
Expect slightly below normal temperatures to continue tonight and temperatures will be warmer Friday compared to today but will continue to be below normal for this time of year.
1202 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 The ridge axis extending from the Great Lakes region southwestward into Kansas will slowly slide to the southeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. The latest HREF, as well as NAM and GFS model runs are still indicating a warm front will develop across northern Kansas into central Missouri with a complex of showers and storms developing on the nose of a 35 to 40 kt low level jet over eastern Nebraska late tonight.
129 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week.
258 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021 A low amplitude ridge remains over the area this afternoon with some cumulus forming over the higher ridges/mountains.
A broad trough looks to linger yet shift slightly eastward.
A weak mid level trough will bring unsettled conditions for this afternoon. Quiet weather this morning with weak surface flow and a mid level trough axis cutting across central North Dakota. A few lingering showers tied to the trough are persisting mainly over Renville County. As the trough axis moves east today, a 700 mb low is forecast to cut off and stall over central and eastern North Dakota, with trailing northwest flow aloft containing shear vorticity. Lows tonight are finally expected to remain above freezing across the entire area, though it could be a close call for the typical cold spots across central and southwest North Dakota.
High pressure promoting tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with clear conditions prevailing across most of the area. Winds will remain out of the north, reinforcing this cooler, continental air mass. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures should make it into the lower 70s across much of the area once again. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the short term period making for a rather pleasant end to the work week.
High pressure will maintain its control of our weather with another pleasant day on Friday.
A weak upper level ridge will move across the area over the next couple of days increasing temps about 10 degrees but they will still be a little below normal.
CU field/convection has already developed over the Sandhills as a trough within northwest flow is helping to kick them near a surface boundary. Temperatures will be much more like mid May would be expected to be, as opposed to the cooler temperatures that we had recently.
332 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week.
1234 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will continue over the area with VFR conditions. A large area of high pressure will ride the flow from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys toward the southeast United States. The high will be close enough to be the dominant feature locally, with largely dry conditions and below average temperatures. Toward the end of the near term, and as the high settles over the southeast states, winds will become more southerly in Arkansas. This is a signal that it will get warmer and more humid, and is the beginning of a long stretch of unsettled weather.
A flat ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today and going into tonight. There will be some increasing high clouds late today and overnight as a weak upper level trough starts to form off the coast. This trough will form a closed low off the coast of northern California on Friday with some weak instability impacting the the eastern mountains with some possible showers and or thunderstorms.
Current PoPs for this afternoon look good centered around the high terrain as several vort lobes pass over the area. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 74 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 70 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 71 46 75 55 / 10 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 68 42 71 51 / 10 10 0 10 20.
With the lack of forcing farther north, will mention sprinkles and have the higher pops over parts of northeast Iowa.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fairly sharp mid level ridge axis draped across the Great Lakes, extending westward toward Iowa. Upper ridge axis will continue to sag slowly to the south overnight, potentially allowing a bit of cloud cover to slide over the ridge and into northwest parts of the area later tonight. Northern Michigan will be between long wave troughs to our north (central Canada) and south (central states) through the period. No big change in the pattern with troughs remaining to our north and south with increasing ridging aloft over northern Michigan.
We'll remain in an unsettled, but warmer pattern through the remainder of the forecast period.
The base of a deeply reflected mid- and upper trough is currently moving through the region.
Clds are advecting to the sw following the low lvl flow ptn that is currently in place. Updated hourly sky grids and kept the cooler forecast on track since there appears to be a good chance that cloud cover will hold temps down a degree or two. High pressure centered over Missouri this morning will maintain northerly winds around 10 knots through the day becoming light overnight. High pressure centered over eastern Missouri and Illinois will maintain a generally light northerly flow through the day. The pleasant conditions will continue through Friday with winds beginning to veer east then southeast Friday night as the high becomes centered near the Blue Ridge mountains.
MVFR to even IFR ceilings could return again later tonight/tomorrow morning, but confidence is on the lower side at this time.
While even small hail is pretty unlikely, CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and freezing level around 7000 feet AGL might allow the stronger updrafts to produce pea sized hail.
348 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure continues to build in from the west tonight and remains in place through Friday night.
Slight chances of showers confined to the high elevations of East Tennessee this afternoon. Discussion: Upper level low seen in WV imagery continues to rotate in the Ohio River Valley this afternoon with several vort lobes moving through west-northwest flow. The upper lvl energy moving through the region today could allow for some shower development across the higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains but coverage should remain isolated to scattered. Otherwise, dry weather can be expected tonight with overnight lows slightly warmer than last night but still cool with lows several degrees below climo. The trend of dry weather will continue on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in the valley location, and low 50's to low 60s across the higher terrain.
Surface winds will gradually veer to southeast by the afternoon, while northwesterly flow aloft continues ahead of an upper ridge moving through the Eastern Rockies.
Updated hourly sky grids and kept the cooler forecast on track since there appears to be a good chance that cloud cover will hold temps down a degree or two. High pressure centered over Missouri this morning will maintain northerly winds around 10 knots through the day becoming light overnight. High pressure centered over eastern Missouri and Illinois will maintain a generally light northerly flow through the day. The pleasant conditions will continue through Friday with winds beginning to veer east then southeast Friday night as the high becomes centered near the Blue Ridge mountains.
Temperatures inland will be slightly above normal through today, then near to slightly below normal through the weekend as low pressure moves in and deepens the marine layer. Onshore flow will continue to increase as a series of low pressure systems move through California.
Dry westerly flow aloft through a weak upper level ridge will keep skies sunny today with temperatures rising to around 10 degrees above normal this afternoon. On Friday precipitation chances will increase as an upper level trough begins to develop over the coast. The chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will also increase due to improving dynamic support and increasing instability, but storms will be isolated and mainly over southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of central and southwest Idaho.
The base of a deeply reflected mid- and upper trough is currently moving through the region. Becoming VFR through the period behind a departing cold front.
201 PM MDT Thu May 13 2021 19z surface analysis had trough from central MT into eastern CO with weak low developing near KCPR. Td/s in the lower 30s to lower 40s are combining with cold air aloft to produce about 500J/kg SBCAPE ahead of these surface boundaries.
1120 AM MDT Thu May 13 2021 Longwave trough continues to slowly drift east across the central US, with modest northwesterly flow in its wake across WY. Daytime heating will bring enough sfc instability to spark a few showers along the higher terrain of the Absarokas and Big Horn Mountains, with the NW flow possibly moving a few showers into the western Big Horn Basin and greater Johnson County. Showers will be a little more numerous Friday due to slightly higher temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 70s. The upper level, flat ridge will continue shifting east across the forecast area with the trough over Idaho on its heels.
High pressure north of the region is still providing the Lower Ohio Valley with cold air advection. Tonight, winds go near calm and allow temperatures to drop into the low 40s by morning. Hi-res forecast soundings and sky cover guidance agree well on seeing some afternoon diurnal cu develop as temps reach the mid- upper 60s (near 10 degrees cooler than climate normals for this time of year). Friday morning lows will bottom out in the low 40s, essentially limiting any frost potential. This high will slowly drift off to the east over the weekend, and as it does so, return flow on the back side of the high will allow for the return of southerly winds and warmer temperatures across southern IN and central KY.
258 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 255 AM CDT High pressure remains in control of our sensible weather here, which will continue our unusually quiet stretch for mid-May.
A broad, relatively uniform upper pattern of weak ridging over the western CONUS and troughing east will modify very little over the next 36 hours. As high pressure moves eastward Friday, winds will gradually veer to the SE allowing for a warmer, but still below normal day.
For the most part, high pressure will be in control this weekend, bringing a mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temperatures.