Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A reinforcing cold frontal boundary is working south through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida, with dewpoints dropping 10 additional degrees across north-central Florida. As the cold frontal boundary works to the south this afternoon, a solid swath of frontogenesis will develop across the Keys and South Florida.
Dry weather will continue Friday for our entire region due to an upper level ridge impacting our area. The stagnant upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will flatten on Saturday night, briefly resulting in more of a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft.
717 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Low pressure will spread rain over the forecast area today. High pressure will result in fair weather and seasonable temperatures for the weekend.
A deep upper-level trough is now entrenched over the Midwest which will result in much cooler than average temperatures through the weekend. A shift to southerly flow will keep Saturday night temperatures warmer as dew points will be higher.
Another back door cold front will arrive on Saturday which will keep temperatures closer to normal for the weekend across the plains. A strong ridge of high pressure from Washington to Baja CA will move very little through Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reach northeast NM late tonight and continue south and west Saturday. It will be cooler in the east Saturday with highs near normal, with little change in the west and high temperatures remaining above normal.
(Today and tonight) Dry weather will continue today, with cooler temperatures behind the weak cold front that went through the area yesterday. Highs this afternoon will range from near 80 degrees across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 80s over the rest of the forecast area. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures, with overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.
(Today and tonight) Winds will return to southerly today and temperatures will be a bit warmer today in western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Cold Front Passage on Saturday: A cold front is expected to pass over the plains early Saturday morning. High temperatures on Saturday will be around 10F cooler over the plains as compared to Friday, and high temperatures are expected to be about the same elsewhere. Heating Up Through the Week: The upper level ridge will propagate to the east-northeast throughout the week, which will continue to bring dry air over the region, as well as a warming trend with temperatures.
115 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley will move east today and be centered over the Mid Atlantic region tonight.
231 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Overview: NW-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area through the weekend -- along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by deep ridging aloft over the western CONUS and deep troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. With the above in mind, expect a brief cooling trend on Saturday (highs ~10F cooler than today, in the 60s).
Otherwise, increasing southerly breezes should mean warmer conditions tonight into Saturday as the nocturnal boundary layer remains a bit more overturned/coupled with the free atmosphere. I've sided with the warmer guidance with this in mind for overnight lows. As a result, forecast temperatures in the afternoon remain along the warmer side of the guidance envelope, consistent with the previous forecast.
1110 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A weak trough will swing through today. High pressure will take over for Saturday.
305 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A low pressure trough will usher showers into NY and PA today.
344 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Tonight and Saturday: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Normal lows run in the low to mid 50s. Highs Saturday will range from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s southwest. Normal highs run in the lower 80s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): 500 mb ridging will build east over the U. /Mexico border region as the deep trough axis over the eastern states shifts eastwards. The low level flow will also persist out of the E-SE through Sat Night which will allow temps to increase steadily.
High pressure and low moisture will lead to continued VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure will continue to persist across South Texas through Saturday. High temperatures will remain near normal while the low overnight temperatures will be slightly below normal. Weak northeast to east winds are expected today and tonight before becoming more southeasterly and picking up to moderate levels Saturday as the high pressure shifts slightly east.
214 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Light rain showers over the far east and gusty northerly winds over the area will decrease into the evening, in the wake of the cold front. Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday night as high pressure builds back over the region. A light easterly flow at the surface on Saturday will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. STP Overall theme during this period is warm and dry, due to a continued dominance of an upper ridge over the western US. There will be some variation in temperatures this week as cold fronts move through every 48 hours.
This afternoon through Saturday night Another dry and unseasonably warm day across the Cowboy State today, as a shallow cold front makes its way southward through areas east of the Divide. Dry conditions will continue Saturday, with slightly cooler temperatures.
1148 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 The cold front moves east through Long Island today. A high pressure system builds to the south over DelMarVa through the weekend.
109 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A good deal of cloud cover noted over the Great Lakes region this afternoon, with low clouds even observed underneath high pressure over northern Ontario as well. Post frontal cold air advection through the night will set the stage for an even cooler day today as high temperatures this afternoon struggle to climb into the low to mid 50s. The inland areas will see surface moisture driven south as a weak high pressure begins to settle into the area by tonight. These cloud trends will ultimately govern the frost potential tonight into tomorrow morning as overnight lows are expected to dip to near freezing and winds become light to calm.
A large upper trough over the eastern U. Model consensus shows a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest that will dampen a western U.
Temperatures are in the 55-60 F range and on track to max out in the low to mid 60s. Current temps are in the lower to mid 40s, with a couple of locations dipping just below 40. Overall, temperatures today are forecast to be a bit cooler than yesterday, with highs topping out in the mid 60s, about 10 degrees below normal. As we move into Friday night, may see some lingering cloud coverage, with low temperatures expected to once again fall into the low to mid 40s. Saturday will be dry and pleasant as high pressure exits the upper Ohio Valley.
1154 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will build in behind a cold front this morning and persist through Saturday.
An amplified longwave trough extending from Baffin Bay southward into the north central Gulf of Mexico will remain in place across the region for the remainder of the day. So Saturday should be another mostly sunny day, with temperatures slightly warmer with highs in the lower 70s.
203 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Upper ridging is persisting across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the Great Plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Saturday, then warmer air will advect in, bringing above average temperatures through the first half of the week.
120 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will bring dry and cool weather through the weekend. Low pressure off the Atlantic coastline could provide some rain near the coast late in the weekend. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s west and north, 45-50 SE. The high pressure will move over the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Saturday.
236 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will bring dry and cool weather through the weekend. Low pressure off the Atlantic coastline could provide some rain near the coast late in the weekend. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s west and north, 45-50 SE. The high pressure will move over the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Saturday.
1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 An amplified longwave trough extending from Baffin Bay southward into the north central Gulf of Mexico will remain in place across the region for the remainder of the day. So Saturday should be another mostly sunny day, with temperatures slightly warmer with highs in the lower 70s.
A reinforcing cold frontal boundary is working south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida, with dewpoints down into the mid 50s near Tampa. A separate trough axis pressing west through Andros and the Cay Sal Bank (see current visibile imagery) will join the fray on Saturday, followed by good chances for Cuba to race to the northwest to north (mean layer steering 20 to 25 knots from the southeast) Saturday afternoon and evening.
500 mb ridging will maintain a dry and stable atms over the RGV for the upcoming 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail with high pressure suppressing cloud cover and rain chances. The region is dominated by high pressure in the mid- levels, which stretches across Deep South Texas. This will allow winds to remain out of the northeast and finally shift back to the southeast on Saturday as the high quickly moves across the Great Lakes region. With onshore flow returning on Saturday, humidity will creep upward during the day with highs reaching the lower 90s.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the Western States will lead to near-record highs through Saturday.
A shift to the east-southeast is expected after 06Z Saturday as a high pressure moves east. A cool and crisp feel to the air this morning as yesterday's weak cold front brought another surge of drier and colder air mass in it's wake. North to northeasterly winds will prevail today with sunny skies and high temperatures several degrees cooler, at around 80-83 degrees F. Winds turning east and then southeast along with plenty of sunshine will allow for temperatures in the low to mid 80s Saturday afternoon. Surface ridging over SE US extending back into SETX and STX with a cold front sagging south across the Red River Saturday evening.
248 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 The cold front has pushed south of the forecast area, and cool and dry northerly air continues to move into north and central Georgia behind the front.
So as winds remain light tonight, we should see temperatures drop down to the lower 40s for most areas. Looks like a degree or two warmer on Saturday afternoon.
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Behind a departing cold front which is pushing offshore, high pressure builds in for the weekend.
A cold front is expected to arrive very late or just after the end of the TAF period. Tomorrow a cold front will sweep through the area with increased winds from the north. Today will be another nice day across the region as the CWA remains located between a high amplitude ridge aloft to our west and upper troughing across the mid west. At the end of the short term (early Saturday morning), a cold front will be on our door step. On Saturday morning, a high amplitude ridge extending from Baja California into northern Nunavut with troughing across the eastern CONUS. We'll see the western ridge flatten across Canada this weekend while the southwestern dome of high pressure will remain in place across the desert SW.
1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Short wave trough to our northwest moving southeast towards our region this morning. The main issue for rainfall at the surface will be overcoming the dry layer in the lower levels. Highs in the 50s to the lower 60s still look good under mostly cloudy skies. This mornings concern continues to be frost potential and near freezing temps. At that point, there is some evidence that the western CONUS upper level ridge will be trying to flatten/move east toward the central CONUS.
/issued 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020/ latest RAP model has mid level trough sliding across the southeast quarter of the nation today that pushes a dry cool front through north then central FL. A warm front in far south FL begins to lift north accompanied by deep moisture. A dry cool front moves down the state today as it weakens then mergers with a warm front lifting out of south FL tonight.
The upper flow over Texas is from the northwest with a trough axis to the east. Temperatures, however, are down after another weak cold front moved through the area. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast to south and dewpoints will continue to increase during the short term period. High pressure will move over the region and dry weather will continue.
1147 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A pressure ridge centered to the north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend.
Satellite, water vapor, and RAP analysis shows a deep trough over the eastern CONUS now fully entrenched with cold, dry air advection across the region. Highs will only reach the low/mid 60's in this cool pattern, 10-15 degrees below normal. VFR is expected through the period as high pressure maintains control of the region. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 72 49 74 51 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 69 48 70 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 44 69 48 69 49 / 0 0 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 66 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 30 30.
1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 (Today and tonight) Dry weather will continue today, with cooler temperatures behind the weak cold front that went through the area yesterday. Highs this afternoon will range from near 80 degrees across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 80s over the rest of the forecast area. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures, with overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s.
Overnight there will be limited cloud cover, if any, which will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 50s for the majority of our region. An increase in upper level cloud cover is expected throughout the day on Saturday as deep moisture is pushed poleward by Tropical Depression Twenty-Five, located near the Yucatan Peninsula, and the long wave trough over eastern CONUS.
137 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A weak cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to arrive this evening.
This trough is expected to track southeast into northern Nebraska by early evening. Minimal warm air advection into the region will keep temperatures cooler on Saturday and Saturday night. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds will allow for ample cooling overnight with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s with a few isolated locations in the Pine Ridge region dropping into the upper 20s on Saturday night.
407 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Amplified pattern remains in place with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS. A minor short wave vort max or two will round the base of the mean trough at times during the short term but will have little if any effect on weather through the period. At the surface, Midwest high pressure will slide slowly eastward tonight, reaching the Central Appalachians by Saturday morning. The center of the high will be just to our northeast, roughly over WV. That would put tomorrow morning's lows in a range similar to this morning's, perhaps slightly warmer. Do not see any threat of frost with relatively high surface dew points around 40 (wet bulb temperatures well above freezing). But cooler eastern valleys should have time to decouple before the more expansive cloud cover arrives.
Meanwhile in the upper levels, there will be long-wave troughing over the Midwest and ridging over California, resulting in continued dry northwest flow. With the higher dewpoints and warmer south flow, expect warmer lows tonight/early Saturday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s, with the Saturday afternoon highs warmer as well (mid to upper 80s). South winds will be gusty on Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of a weak cold front moving down into Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle, so winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph appears likely.
This cool northerly flow could provide for some cooler temperatures tonight in the 30s. Most areas with chances for precip tonight should remain above freezing, although an isolated snow flurry cannot be ruled out in some northeastern areas in the CWA. High pressure should diminish precipitation chances later Saturday morning.
An upper level trough remains situated over the eastern CONUS today into this weekend. Temperatures today should rise into the lower to middle 70's this afternoon before falling into the middle to upper 40's inland and lower 50's near the coast tonight.
310 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A couple short wave troughs in northwest flow are/will be affecting the cwa through Saturday. The first short wave trough and jet streak were bringing showers mainly to central sd this afternoon with a few sprinkles/light showers elsewhere. Otherwise, the next short wave trough in Canada will travel farther east tonight and Saturday affecting mainly eastern sd.
Cloud cover will help keep overnight lows warmer than last night with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. Saturday night, as the main vort max swings through and the trough strengthens just to our east, we will find ourselves in the backside of the wave with increasing subsidence.
143 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Northwest upper flow to persist over the forecast area as the seemingly semi-permanent western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough remain in place. A pair of short wave troughs moving southeastward over the Missouri Valley, one late tonight and the second Saturday afternoon, will bring a cold front into the forecast area toward sunrise Saturday. The front may stall across the forecast area for a bit before the second short wave trough brings another round of southward impetus to the cold front. Low temperatures should be milder than this morning's with the south to southwest surface winds ahead of the cold front.
302 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will build eastward tonight and take over for Saturday.
In the mean time, a deep trough continues over the eastern half of the US with little change since yesterday. Surface pressure is expected to continue to rise through the afternoon today thanks to a Canadian high moving into the area which will continue to give cooler and drier conditions as well as mostly clear skies this afternoon and evening. Saturday late morning, afternoon, evening, and overnight will see a cold front approach and pass from north to south across the area. In addition to the forecast for Saturday, winds are expected to be gusty from the south ahead of the front during the morning and early afternoon hours thanks to a fairly tight pressure gradient as a result of high pressure over the eastern US, a low pressure moving into the central US, and the approaching cold front.
235 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Overview: NW-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area through the weekend -- along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by deep ridging aloft over the western CONUS and deep troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. With the above in mind, expect a brief cooling trend on Saturday (highs ~10F cooler than today, in the 60s).
134 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 The cold front moves east through Long Island today. A high pressure system builds to the south over DelMarVa through the weekend.
127 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Amplified ridging over the west coast and a broad trough over the eastern CONUS leave the CWA sandwiched under northwesterly flow. Cloud cover will decrease from north to south this evening, as mid-to- high level moisture tied to the exiting trough axis shifts eastward. Temperatures on Saturday will run a degree or two cooler than observed today, in the wake of today's passing system. Relatively clear skies round out the short term forecast period as high pressure builds into the Great Basin and ridging moves overhead. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will maintain a consistent weather pattern for majority of the forecast period.
223 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Chilly high pressure will stay in the region for one more night tonight, leading to another unseasonably cool start to the day Saturday. The high will shift off a bit to the east during the day Saturday, allowing temperatures to nudge up a bit into the upper half of the 60s.
55 High pressure and VFR conditions will continue across the area through much of the period. Today Through Saturday Night A large upper ridge will be over the western U. and the large upper trough will continue over the eastern two thirds of the U. High pressure continues to move into the area from the north. Another cold front will enter the northwest corner of the state Saturday evening and will bring a chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
353 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 After a cold morning where most folks saw lows 10 to 20 degrees below normal (falling to the mid 20s for some!), temperatures this afternoon have warmed into 50s to near 60, which is 5-15 degrees cooler than average.
High pressure slips east on Saturday with light SW return flow developing. We do not see significant WAA with low pressure still over the Kansas City area.
Sfc analysis showing a strong ridging centered across NE OK/NW AR and SW MO with the ridge axis oriented south and west across N TX into Central TX attm. This leaves us with northeasterly flow at the surface but that ridge axis will quickly shift eastward and should be over our entire region late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Temperature advection in the lower levels is relatively neutral even given the northeast winds at the surface and given the dry conditions, temperatures are warming up quickly.
A cold front will push into the region tonight, with a chance for showers and a rain/snow mix along a weak baroclinic zone and 850 fgen axis. Cooler air filters into the region Saturday, with highs expected to reach the middle 40s to lower 50s.
142 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A few isolated and light showers are possible this afternoon before dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure. With near freezing and saturated conditions closer to ground level frost development will be possible overnight. Therefore a frost advisory was issued for all counties with the exception of Forest county where freezing conditions have already been observed and the growing season has ended.
Both waves are rotating around the main longwave trough over the eastern half of North America.
A cold front will move south through the Panhandles just after sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 70s across the Panhandles. A weak strip of PVA in the wake of the cold front across central Oklahoma on the latest 02/12 model and numerical data shows a slight chance of showers to our east. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 40s to mid 40s, a bit cooler tomorrow night behind the cold front.
A back door cold front will dive southwestward through the eastern plains tonight with gusts near 40 mph along NM's eastern border. Another back door cold front will arrive on Saturday which will keep temperatures closer to normal for the weekend across the plains. A strong ridge of high pressure from Washington to Baja CA will move very little through Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reach northeast NM late tonight and continue south and west Saturday. It will be cooler in the east Saturday with highs near normal, with little change in the west and high temperatures remaining above normal.
Upper trof will move south across the northern Plains and Midwest tonight into Saturday, maintaining the eastern CONUS longwave. A milder southerly low level flow will prevail ahead of the associated cold front tonight.
338 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.