Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting east through the Northern High Plains and Central Rockies. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado. Dry conditions will continue today and tonight as a weakening upper level ridge moves across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. Prevailing low level southerlies will further draw warmer air into the high plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C along the Colorado border. Look for lows generally down into the lower 60s(F) tonight with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas. Tranquil conditions will persist through much of the weekend as weak ridging aloft pushes quickly off to the east.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand across the higher elevations for the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening. A dry cold front moves through Friday night, followed by dry, windy and cooler conditions on Saturday.
440 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 The weather pattern across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters is dominated by a deep, expansive, large-scale anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic. The system is supported by a persistent upper ridge extending from old Mexico to the Canadian Maritimes. Machine models and associated ensemble output indicate increasing chances of a both a fortification and westward shift of an upper ridge from Mexico to the mid-Atlantic states. The associated ridge axis will shift northward, and a bona fide trade-wind flow regime will set in for a few days across the service area. Although rich, maritime tropical air will persist near the surface, the depth of the moist layer will be limited by weak, large-scale subsidence associated with the ridge/anticyclone.
The slow moving trough will eject to the east of the region this morning. With the deep moisture well east of the region and warmer air aloft overspreading the area, the atmosphere will become less and less conducive to supporting new shower and storm development. A trough lifting across the area will continue to bring scattered showers and degraded flight conditions to some area terminals. Diurnal mixing and drying in wake of the trough passage will lead to VFR everywhere by late morning and through the remainder of the TAF period.
With dew points in the lower 60s, skies clearing and light winds, added patchy patchy fog overnight into Friday morning to areas roughly near and south of Interstate 70, where the heaviest rain fell over the last 24 hours. The supporting mid-level trough's slow progression eastward, and column's generally light winds are lending to generally slow storm motion. Showers will diminish while tapering off from west to east late today/early this evening as the supporting trough's axis finally crosses the region. Generally subtle gradients surrounding the switch from weak trough to flat ridge will promote a continuation of light northwesterly winds overnight which will advect slightly drier and seasonably cool air into Indiana. A weak vort riding along the top of the slowly- building ridge may shake out a few sprinkles, or even a stray convective shower Friday afternoon across the northeast zones.
A cold front currently bisects the area generally between I-20 and I- 85. As we work into Saturday, high pressure will be the dominate force across the area, but we will still have the left over trough trapped in the Southeast.
1930Z water vapor imagery shows upper level ridging over the western half of the country. At the surface, weak high pressure remained over the region. Temps will continue to trend warmer with full insolation and heights rise. Think highs will be in the middle 80s to near 90 the next couple days with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Chances for morning fog appear to be more limited due to the warmer temps overnight.
Cirrus continues to stream north into the area ahead of upper low over west Texas. a mid/upper level low was positioned over West/Southwest Texas. Upper level southerly flow on the eastern side of the upper trof axis was lifting scattered cirrus clouds into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. high pressure remained common with light winds reported over the region.
Trough extending from the northeastern states down to the central Gulf will slowly drift eastward by Saturday. a weak cutoff low over Texas will begin to drift slowly underneath an upper midwest ridge following along a southwesterly flow over the weekend.
Elsewhere skies are clear this morning with high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. Patchy to areas of fog are again expected tonight with lows in the lower 60s.
High pressure remains across the Silver State with continued near to record heat. High pressure core centered over Nevada gets flattened later today.
Today, zonal flow aloft will develop over the PacNW as upper level ridge breaks down. Meanwhile, breezy to gusty westerly winds will develop in the afternoon across the forecast area, with the strongest winds expected in the eastern Gorge, Kittitas valley, and portions of the lower Columbia Basin.
/issued 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough that has brought so much severe wx and rain to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico the past week or so currently centered over the Permian Basin. The exception will be the Big Bend/lower Tran Pecos, where the exiting trough will have residual (yet waning) influence the next 24 hours. For the first time in a while, forecast soundings on the lower Trans Pecos show shallow mid- lvl lapse rates and little deep-lyr shear to write home about. As the trough traipses east, upper-level ridging will begin building into the region, and temperatures will gradually warm as a result.
Meanwhile, a tilted upper level ridge extends northeastwards across the Yucatan to past the Bahamas. Local convective coverage is down quite a bit from 24 hours ago, with only isolated showers on waters around the Upper Keys and southwest of the Lower Keys. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain gentle to moderate and mostly out of the southeast this afternoon due to persistent ridging across Florida. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this afternoon.
Once the thunderstorm threat subsides tonight, the weekend and coming week will feature dry conditions and somewhat cooler temps, with highs generally in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s.
640 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 High pressure will build into the area today into tomorrow leading to drier conditions, although a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible.
Increasing subsidence and warmer air aloft in the wake of a departing trough will largely keep a lid on convection. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period under the influence of building high pressure.
On Saturday, it will be much cooler yet still mild and seasonable. Highs will generally be 10 degrees cooler than Friday.
358 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A significant blocking pattern has developed over the last few days with upper level ridging spanning across the west/southwestern portion of the CONUS. Deep subsidence greatly helped promote very warm and dry conditions yesterday, with Cheyenne's daytime highs in the low 80s. Main concerns exist with the latest model runs indicating that the main energy for the upcoming precipitation might be a bit too far to the north as a frontal boundary is pushing eastward across the northwestern portion of Montana and high pressure just off to the south near the Rockie Mountains.
Although MLCAPEs will soar to 1000 to 2000 J/kg during the afternoon, a substantial capping inversion at 850 mb will keep the weather dry as ridging becomes entrenched across the western Great Lakes region. The aforementioned upper level ridge will once again provide a substantial capping inversion across the region, which should keep most of the area dry. The main exception may be across the far northern cwa where a mid level PV anomaly riding along the periphery of the ridge may provide enough lift to break through the inversion. Therefore, any storm that does develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds given the inverted-V profile in the lowest portion of the sounding along with large hail.
Temperatures currently in the low to mid 70s for most locations will continue to rise quickly today courtesy ample sunshine and dewpoints dropping slightly into the upper 50s. as a couple small, weak waves embedded in the slowly-building ridge pass from WNW to ESE today. Generalized negative vorticity advection along with confluence in the exiting upper level jet will create a broad region of subsidence within the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Also, with broad subsidence in correspondence with high pressure, dry conditions and minimal cloud cover is likely. Temperatures will be similar if not slightly warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s.
High pressure will keep winds light through the period. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 88 68 84 / 0 0 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 61 87 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 61 87 65 85 / 0 0 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 85 61 86 / 10 0 10 0 30.
/issued 241 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021/ Upper level low is positioned south of the forecast area early this morning with ridging running from the Southwestern U. There is an outside chance that a rogue thunderstorm could rotate around the low potentially impacting the southern Rolling Plains into the southeastern South Plains this afternoon however again confidence in this happening is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most locations in the low to mid 80's under partly cloudy skies. /WCI A mid level low continues to be indicated over the Lone Star State for Saturday morning and this feature will be quite slow to do much moving as it remains lodged between a ridge in the southwestern CONUS and the Bermuda high.
A slow moving trough will eject to the east of the region this morning. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period under the influence of building high pressure.
A weak front will linger over the area today as an upper trough lifts into the Mid Atlantic States. The threat may be highest where the drier mid-level air to the west meets the higher surface moisture to the east. The upper trough axis will shift offshore with generally weak upper flow over the forecast area.
600 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Ridging aloft will gradually flatten today into Saturday which will allow a more westerly component to the wind in the low levels. Compared to mixing yesterday, which topped out around 8-9 kft, similar mixing heights are expected today with temperatures aloft about 2-3 degrees warmer. This will bring very warm lows for Saturday morning, but will not stray too far from the 50th percentile as dry and droughty conditions usually support a larger diurnal range, so mostly lows in the mid 60s with some warmer readings likely near and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
This could supply another round of showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas as pieces of energy rotate around this low today and Saturday. Increased cloud cover along with any precipitation will help to keep temperatures slightly below normal into the weekend, even with Saturday expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
The upper level ridge is expected to continue eastward while a positively- tilted closed low sits over Texas. Saturday, the ridge axis is expected to move across the Northern Plains as an upper level trough moves slowly across the Pacific NW. The closed low over the Southern Plains is expected to become more neutrally-tilted throughout the day. The lee trough is expected to remain stationary with a tighter pressure gradient over the Tri- State area.
510 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, and satellite shows mostly clear skies across the northern plains. Thermal ridge axis will move over the CWA today and Saturday, resulting in hot temperatures both days.
At the same time, an upper level low across West Texas will close off and become cutoff from the westerlies. However, the aforementioned broad upper low will slowly meander eastward throughout the day into Central Texas. This could help generate some lingering nighttime activity across the region as the atmosphere will remain unstable ahead of the low. The broad upper low will continue to meander across Central Texas. This will keep our region on the eastern flank of this feature, which is usually the most active side of low pressure systems. Expect higher rain chances, with the upper low closer to the region.
Behind this boundary, a large area of high pressure is gaining control. This area of high pressure will remain across the region through the short term portion of the forecast. A trough will be in place across the region today, but heights will begin building as it exits eastward. Despite this NW flow aloft, increasing sunshine will help to boost temps in the low to mid 80s for highs. Heights will continue to rise on Saturday, as the center of the high pressures pushes just to our east, allowing for some return southerly flow. Currently have upper 50s to around 60 forecast for lows, with the valleys in the low to mid 50s. An area of ridging is expected along the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, reaching into the Ohio Valley while a trough sits over the central CONUS.
346 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 With ridging still present overhead, today's weather should be comparable to yesterday, with mostly calm and dry conditions.
A dry westerly flow is replacing the upper level ridge. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today with 80s in the Basin and 70s in the mountains. Today, zonal flow aloft will develop over the PacNW as upper level ridge breaks down. Meanwhile, breezy to gusty westerly winds will develop in the afternoon across the forecast area, with the strongest winds expected in the eastern Gorge, Kittitas valley, and portions of the lower Columbia Basin.
619 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 (Today and tonight) The center of a large upper level low was located across Crockett County, with an upper level trough of low pressure located between the Big Bend and Del Rio. Models show the upper level low pressure system slowly drifting to the east and reaching San Saba this evening.
435 AM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A significant blocking pattern has developed over the last few days with upper level ridging spanning across the west/southwestern portion of the CONUS. Deep subsidence greatly helped promote very warm and dry conditions yesterday, with Cheyenne's daytime highs in the low 80s. Main concerns exist with the latest model runs indicating that the main energy for the upcoming precipitation might be a bit too far to the north as a frontal boundary is pushing eastward across the northwestern portion of Montana and high pressure just off to the south near the Rockie Mountains.
530 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A warm front will be slow to clear southeast Michigan today, and mid clouds will likely persist much of the day, with isolated higher based showers still possible. Daytime heating this afternoon in the wake of a warm front will turn winds to the west, with boundary layer growth supporting a few gusts just above 20 knots. Large high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to strengthen and build westward resulting in a deep southwesterly flow that will advect very warm air into the region.
Behind this boundary, a large area of high pressure is gaining control. This area of high pressure will remain across the region through the short term portion of the forecast. A trough will be in place across the region today, but heights will begin building as it exits eastward. Despite this NW flow aloft, increasing sunshine will help to boost temps in the low to mid 80s for highs. Heights will continue to rise on Saturday, as the center of the high pressures pushes just to our east, allowing for some return southerly flow. Currently have upper 50s to around 60 forecast for lows, with the valleys in the low to mid 50s.
Hot Temperatures Continue and Severe Thunderstorms with An upper ridge continues to flatten over the western half of the country.
An upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will shift eastward today, bringing another day of much above average temperatures. While the short wave will flatten the ridge some on Saturday, low level temperatures remain the same as today, with highs reaching the 90s, to around 100 degrees. Early on in the forecast period, there is that cold front trying to work south and east through the CWA.
620 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Early this morning, an upper RIDGE was over the eastern and central Rockies with an upper TROF axis over the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over western Tennessee resulting in a light S-SW flow over our region. Skies were clear over our region with temperatures mainly in the low-mid 60s although isolated spots have dipped into the 50s. The upper flow pattern is one that is progressive, with the upper RIDGE over the eastern/central Rockies translating eastward to the upper MS Valley by late Saturday with a new TROF filling the vacancy in the northwestern CONUS left by the departing RIDGE. This ridging will be less of a factor on Saturday, bringing in higher dewpoints in the low 60s.
1039 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 High pressure will build into the area today into tomorrow leading to drier conditions, although a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible.
643 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021 A cold front will clear the area this afternoon. High pressure will return with mainly dry weather for the weekend. The upper trough axis tracks east of the area by evening, but could induce a few showers/isolated storms this morning over the mountains of WV. During the late afternoon Saturday, down towards the NC mountains there is a slight chance of a stray shower as those areas are further from the center of the high, but on the whole, Saturday looks to be a pleasantly warm, clear day.
While can't rule out several stronger cells, weak mid-upper level ridging could help to limit updraft strength. A mid to upper ridge will prevail from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the southwest North Atlantic. South Florida will be under the western periphery of high pressure centered to our northeast.
A mid to upper ridge will prevail from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the southwest North Atlantic. South Florida will be under the western periphery of high pressure centered to our northeast.
639 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Weak ridging is slowly pushing off to the east into the Ohio Valley with a weak trough moving into the Northern Rockies.
157 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Upper level ridging has built in over the Great Basin with northwesterly flow aloft around the ridge axis. There is expected to be clear skies and light winds overnight with lows getting back into the lower to mid 50s with decent radiational cooling. For Saturday, above normal temperatures are likely with highs reaching into the lower 90s for the first time this year across the lower elevations. However, model soundings show an inverted-V structure where if any storms move off the higher terrain they would mostly bring virga and gusty winds during the late afternoon.
Concur with deterministic output that the upper low will move slowly eastward during the period, with synoptic scale lift confined primarily to the Coastal Plains tonight/early Saturday, followed by synoptic scale descent areawide by Saturday afternoon.
223 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 West Texas and eastern New Mexico are on the subsident, western periphery of an upper level low over central Texas. Showers and thunderstorms are markedly less today than yesterday and convection will further diminish over the weekend as the upper low very gradually moves off to the east. In it's wake high pressure over northern Mexico will strengthen and build north with the ridge axis sitting directly over our CWA.
As the upper low that has impacted the area with recent rains, still spins over the state, continued scattered showers are in the area and will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. As for Saturday, little change to the upper pattern, the area will still be under the influence of that upper low.
1125 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Early this morning, an upper RIDGE was over the eastern and central Rockies with an upper TROF axis over the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over western Tennessee resulting in a light S-SW flow over our region. Skies were clear over our region with temperatures mainly in the low-mid 60s although isolated spots have dipped into the 50s. The upper flow pattern is one that is progressive, with the upper RIDGE over the eastern/central Rockies translating eastward to the upper MS Valley by late Saturday with a new TROF filling the vacancy in the northwestern CONUS left by the departing RIDGE. This ridging will be less of a factor on Saturday, bringing in higher dewpoints in the low 60s.
High pressure settles across the local area on Saturday.
Should be a lot less cloud cover around tonight into Saturday as upper level ridging tries to take hold with better chance for all areas to see upper 80s to around 90.
Temps will drop to the lower 70s. High pressure ridge axis extending from Bermuda through the western Atlantic will remain in place, stretching towards the local area, through the first half of the weekend.
Highs today are likely to top out in the lower 90s for many locations and expect highs to be a degree or two warmer for Saturday, after lows in the mid/upper 60s tonight. Possible Chicago and the urban areas stay in the lower 70s tonight but with clear skies and dry air, only medium confidence in those areas. Southwest winds will gust into the 25-30 mph range through sunset this evening, with the highest gusts across the northern third of the cwa.
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021 Ridging aloft will gradually flatten today into Saturday which will allow a more westerly component to the wind in the low levels. Compared to mixing yesterday, which topped out around 8-9 kft, similar mixing heights are expected today with temperatures aloft about 2-3 degrees warmer. This will bring very warm lows for Saturday morning, but will not stray too far from the 50th percentile as dry and droughty conditions usually support a larger diurnal range, so mostly lows in the mid 60s with some warmer readings likely near and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
By mid day Saturday, an upper low over northern Texas will push eastward, and may help provide support for diurnally initiated showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon.
Hires guidance still suggests (and latest radar generally confirms) that a few showers will remain possible along the higher terrain this afternoon. This activity is very weakly forced and likely tied to a secondary sfc/upper trough. Convection fades this evening as high pressure takes over at the sfc under rising heights aloft. A mainly clear and mild night with lows in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south or +7-15F warmer than early June climo. Heat ramps up quickly to start the weekend with MaxTs in the low/mid 80s in the Alleghenies to low 90s in the Susquehanna Valley (+5-15F above normal).
Upper level trough crossing the Ohio Valley this afternoon with west/southwest flow aloft across the area. Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to ridge into the southeastern states.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Points: - Hot and humid through the weekend - Little in the way of precipitation through much of the upcoming week Details: Iowa may have a case of meteorological whiplash with temperatures over 40 degrees warmer today than they were this time last Friday. This weekend thermal ridging builds across the west while a weak upper level cutoff low gets stranded over Texas and the western gulf coast states. Dewpoints this weekend will be 10 to 15 degrees higher than they are today, in the low 60s.