Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
East of the I-65 corridor expect highs to reach the lower to mid 80s. The area will be between a weakening cold front to our north dropping southeast from the OH valley, and widespread moisture transport across the deep South and Gulf Coastal regions.
This batch of showers is more anafrontal type now as the lower level boundary continues to sag into the area. Clouds and slightly cooler temps behind the frontal boundary help to keep a gradient from north to south across the forecast area today. Not much relief from the higher dewpoints as the weak front stalls and drier air associated with the high pressure remains focused to the northeast of the forecast area.
Cooler temperatures beginning Wednesday with a chance of precipitation over weekend. Weak trough that has been over the area will flatten as it moves east towards the Great Basin today with a more weak zonal flow pattern replacing it.
High pressure will then build in across the western Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday, which is expected to keep the region dry. Wednesday temperatures will warm to around normal levels, generally rising into the lower to middle 70s by the afternoon hours.
510 AM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A weak ridge will be over the region today with warming temperatures and sunny skies. Much cooler conditions will follow the front with Canadian high pressure pushing south and ushering in the more fall-like temperatures.
Dry and slightly warmer on Wednesday, but still highs only in the upper 70s to around 80.
Fair weather prevails today, with a light breeze and temperatures in the lower 70s. Strong winds develop on Wednesday as a dry cold front pushes through the area.
For today, we will remain between the remnants of hurricane Nicholas to our south and a weak cold front just to our north. Isolated diurnal convection will be possible across the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, and a storm or two that forms along the cold front may make its way across the Oklahoma/Kansas border just before sunset.
403 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Today and Tonight: Low pressure moving into northern portions of Wisconsin has been the primary focus for showers/storms early this morning. Additional activity has developed along the trailing cold front, though recent trends indicate a decrease in both coverage and intensity as it moves into the area. High pressure builds into the area tonight, this will result in a clear sky, light winds and decent radiational colling conditions.
This all occurring as a northern cold front shifts southward this morning. Highs today ranging in the low to middle 70s for most. Influence of high pressure builds into the region Wednesday with warmer, breezier, and drier conditions to warrant Fire Weather Watches across portions of southeastern Wyoming. Highs Wednesday from the low to middle 80s along and east of I-25 with upper 70s westward.
/Issued 405 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021/ Persistent upper level ridging that has kept the area dry the last few days has broken down and shifted eastward allowing moisture to return to the area.
From synopsis, a robust ridge extending across the Atlantic and through the southeastern United States will support gentle easterly breezes and above normal rain coverage through tomorrow. Thereafter, a tropical low pressure area is expected to form in the vicinity of the Bahamas, which will cause the ridge to weaken and retrograde eastward into the Atlantic. Ridging will build back in this weekend, and breezes will become mainly gentle during this time.
This boundary is associated with the open 500mb trough traversing the Dakotas-Minnesota-Wisconsin. Slightly more organized convection will persist across Iowa into Wisconsin and Illinois this morning, owing to better shear environment given the regions proximity to the upper trough. As has been discussed previously, the lack of upper support, with the parent upper trough crossing the Great Lakes, shear is not overly great for organization.
The clouds and precipitation should keep highs in the lower to middle 80s, with warmest temperatures in southern TN and northeast AL, and cooler readings further south and west. The area will be between a weakening cold front to our north dropping southeast from the OH valley, and widespread moisture transport across the deep South and Gulf Coastal regions.
Surface analysis early this morning places a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast United States while Hurricane Nicholas is just southwest of Houston. Convective activity is anticipated to decrease in coverage by this evening but increase late tonight into Wednesday as an upper level trough and associated cold front approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley and weakens and the remnants of Nicholas pass to the south of the area over portions of Central and Southern Mississippi.
The high will remain dominant over the region tonight as well, then gets pushed eastward on Wednesday as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. A more or less progressive pattern through the extended with an initial broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies.
Heading into Wednesday, a rather disjointed area of high pressure will try to set up over northern Mexico while the polar front jet sets up along the US/Canadian border.
1002 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue today under high pressure. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with a crossing cold front. Ridging/SW flow aloft should push a quasi-stationary front back to the north as a warm front today, with dry weather expected across the Upper Ohio Valley region. More widespread showers are expected Wednesday as the trough and sfc cold front cross the region.
935 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Showers offshore associated with an inverted coastal trough will shift toward the coast late this morning as the trough axis shifts west-northwestward. Widely scattered showers will accompany the trough as translate toward the Suwannee River Valley through the afternoon hours. In the low levels, a weak southeasterly flow will advect favorable moisture (PWATs around 2. The combo of moistening low levels and convergence along the inverted trough will promote a chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly west of Highway 301 and south of I-10. Elsewhere across the forecast area, thunderstorm chances will be limited but there will be a chance for a few showers along the I-95 corridor as the inverted trough/sea breeze move inland. Light onshore winds expected through the morning and afternoon then gradually shifting southeastward behind an inverted trough this evening.
633 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Eau Claire WI to Oelwein IA. The cold front will likely move out of the area between 6 AM and 7 AM. For tonight, high pressure will build in across the area. Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. From Wednesday into Wednesday night, high pressure will provide mainly mostly clear skies.
To that extent, dry weather will prevail today and tonight for a vast majority of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as weak 500 mb high pressure south of the region briefly reigns. However, generally isolated convection will reenter the forecast for the inland area on Wednesday as lingering deep tropical moisture combines with daytime heating and weak mid- level troughiness along the Texas coastline. Throughout the entire short term forecast period, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over the lower Texas coastal waters, where generally scattered convection is forecast due to better available moisture and dynamics there.
While storm chances will mainly be in northern and central Oklahoma, cooler, near average high temperatures in the upper 80s are expected across Oklahoma and western north Texas for Wednesday.
428 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Current surface analysis places low over northern Manitoba with cold front dropping into the northern plains. For today, fog over the James River Valley will diminish as cold front continues is gradual eastward progression. Behind the front, cooler temperatures expected across the area to close out the work week.
/issued 311 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/ Upper level ridging will remain in place over the forecast area today, although some weakening of the ridge, mainly across the northeastern part of the forecast area, will occur as an upper level short wave trough moves over the Rockies and onto the central High Plains.
Combined with high pressure along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, better moisture feed into SW portions of the Valley and the Plateau will bring a chance of some showers and the occasional rumble of thunder to the aforementioned area following a typical diurnal cycle. Additionally, an isolated shower is possible in the higher elevations of the eastern Tennessee mountains. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 69 81 68 83 / 20 20 60 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 84 67 84 / 10 10 50 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 81 65 83 / 10 10 60 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 84 64 81 / 10 10 50 30 50.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Manitoba with cold front dropping into the northern plains. For today, fog over the James River Valley will diminish as cold front continues is gradual eastward progression. Behind the front, cooler temperatures expected across the area to close out the work week.
354 AM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Fair weather prevails today, with a light breeze and temperatures in the lower 70s. Strong winds develop on Wednesday as a dry cold front pushes through the area.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Minor mid-level ridging today as said mid-level flow transitions to light nw. That nw component will advect warmer 7h temps sewd into SE NM/PB today and high temps will edge up a couple of degrees in agreement with 85h temp trends as well as MOS/NBM. On Wed a decaying outflow boundary/cold front will serve to increase MSLP and with some lowering mid-level heights high temps will trend down a few degrees. NAMBUFR sounding at MRF shows ML CAPES around 600 J/KG with some mid-level mstr along with subtle indications of a weak mid-level shrtw trof that may provide some lift across SE NM/NW PB.
A cold front will bring rain to the area on Wednesday. Ridging/SW flow aloft should push a quasi-stationary front back to the north as a warm front today, with mainly dry weather expected. An isolated aftn thunderstorm is possible mainly across NW PA, though the ridge should limit this potential. More widespread showers are expected Wednesday as the trough and sfc cold front cross the region.
After sunset will continue with the higher than normal chances of rain as plenty of moisture will be in place. Went ahead and went likely across the area, with the highest in the west and lowest in the northeast. One other factor to play into this will be a cold front sliding in from the north.
mainly zonal westerly flow today, then a slight transition to more southwesterly flow as broad troughing develops over western US. However, will be dry and sunny with warmer than normal temps continuing.
Went on the cooler side of guidance again given favorable conditions for nocturnal radiational cooling. On Wednesday, warmer and breezier conditions will prevail as warm air advection and southerly return flow develop. Temperatures begin a warming trend Wednesday with highs ranging from the 70s (MN/IA) to the lower 80s (central SD).
736 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 [Through 12Z Wednesday] A weak trough of low pressure will shift inland today increasing chances for showers and potentially a few thunderstorms at airfields south of I-10. The region will be between an inverted trough to the east southeast, and Tropical Cyclone Nicholas over the western Gulf coast Today. Moisture associated with trough to the east will move into area in the onshore flow Today, with precipitation chances increasing across eastern and southern counties through the day. The inverted trough will continue to develop into an area of low pressure to the east southeast on Wednesday. A warm front extending east from remnants of Nicholas will be a source of lift to support increasing precipitation chances.
607 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure maintains dry weather today. A cold front arrives on Wednesday. A high pressure system will provide yet another day of dry weather. Will run toward the lower end of MOS guidance for highs today as this has been the trend for the last several days. A cold front approaching from the northwest will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night, more so in southeastern Ohio and northeastern Kentucky.
Southwest flow ahead of front with thermal ridge supporting temperatures well into the 80s.
Otherwise, east to southeast winds to increase to around 10 knots this morning and near 15 to 18 knots this afternoon with the higher values near LFK/SHV/GGG.
A high pressure extending towards the eastern US from central Atlantic will remain to the north of the local area. Over southeast coast of Texas, Tropical Cyclone Nicholas will continue to move towards southern Louisiana and weaken to a depression later today or tonight.
939 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure maintains dry weather today. A cold front arrives on Wednesday. A high pressure system will provide yet another day of dry weather. Will run toward the lower end of MOS guidance for highs today as this has been the trend for the last several days. A cold front approaching from the northwest will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night, more so in southeastern Ohio and northeastern Kentucky.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below freezing in areas northwest of Tulsa, where light freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle will be possible.
A cold front will being to push into the region ahead of the trough tomorrow afternoon.
Brief, marginally strong winds will be possible in the Guadalupe Mountains today and stronger winds expected Sunday as an upper trough moves across the Rockies.
1147 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 Extensive stratus remains shrouded over the area early this morning, with areas of freezing drizzle, freezing fog/mist, and flurries. Areas here are predicted to drop into the low -20s. Did warm highs a bit closer to the 50th percentile and are a tad warmer than the NBM, similar to the last cold surge.
Northwest flow/upper level troughing will funnel cold Canadian air across the region.
High pressure will build from the west this afternoon with skies gradually clearing. The high will build overhead Tonight. With low level moisture in place from recent rains, and winds going light under the ridge, expect fog formation overnight, which could become dense.
A few storms will remain possible for the waters east of the Treasure Coast trough the afternoon. Temps behind the line have dropped a few degrees after reaching the lower 70s earlier this morning but with some diurnal heating, these should warm up again to the mid 70s.
This trough was producing clouds and scattered flurries and snow showers. This high was producing sunshine across western and northern Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin the temperatures were in the teens north of Interstate 94, and in the lower 20s elsewhere.
A cold front will be located near the Red River around midday Sunday. Temperatures across the northern Big Country may slowly fall by late afternoon, as the cold front slowly moves through the region.
Lows will be a few degrees warmer, dropping into mid 40s to low 50s.
Drier air associated with the high, will allow much of the area to become mostly clear for much of the day Sunday. Sunday Night Through Saturday Surface-based low pressure will develop over the Plains States starting Sunday night and expand east during the first half of the work week. Temperatures will drop as the system integrates with broader low pressure in Canada and pulls arctic air south into our region for a couple of days.
Surface cold front, now across southeast Oklahoma, has moved through much of the area, with low level cold advection continuing today. We may still hit high temps in the low to mid 40s late in the day, if we get some breaks in the cloud cover.
The NVA side of the long wave trough axis is over Florida, the Keys, and Western Cuba, squelching any over-exuberant showers. A weak area of high pressure will nestle into north Florida tonight, then spread east and strengthen over the western North Atlantic Sunday and Sunday night.
The upper level flow is northwesterly with a deep trough to our east. A warm front is moving toward the northeast through our CWA. Sunday night a cold front will move into the northwestern part of the CWA.
Winds are W/NW across the area, and will be turning to the NE overnight as the front continues to push south and high pressure builds in behind it.
Although not a real bruiser, its still a cold frontal boundary. Although chances are meager for rain, the clearance of this moisture convergence axis to the southeast of the islands may take a few hours given the broad cyclonic enveleope and the lack of high pressure support over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico.
Raised the high temperatures over the coastal regions of the Coastal Bend up to around 80 degrees. Southerly low level flow will be increasing to 35-40 knots over the coastal plains overnight as an area of low pressure forms over the Texas panhandle.
Overall pattern has one trough moving through the area producing a few light sprinkles which will be out of the area this evening.
301 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Colder air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
Return flow in the wake of the high will enable WAA from west to east tonight, with low temperatures occurring in the evening west and central, with steady to rising temperatures overnight. It will take a bit longer for the warmer air and clouds to arrive over my east, and as a result this is where we expect the colder temperature tonight. Should see more sunshine for Sunday along with much warmer temperatures ranging from the teens east to mid 20s southwest. Another cold front then arrives across the north Sunday afternoon. Cyclonic northwest flow aloft to begin the week is forecast to transition to mean upper level ridging across the Northern Plains mid to late in the week by global models.
530 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 Temperatures have struggled to get out of the single digits and low teens this afternoon, as a Canadian high pressure is firmly in place.
Warmer under the clouds and the advance of these clouds eastward and the degree of warming as they move in are the challenges tonight. Cloud moving into the area and warmer temps will improve wind chill conditions. Cold air will still be in place at the beginning of the week, with a ridge of high pressure settling over the forecast area Mon morning. Sunday has the risk of seeing a period of lower MVFR cigs across the area as warmer airmass moves in.
An upper level system will usher in cooler air, light precipitation, and gusty desert winds this afternoon through early Sunday.
High pressure will build into the area tomorrow, with lighter winds expected.
Still expect a bit of enhancement over northeast parts of the CWA this evening producing a couple of inches, mainly around the Pine Ridge area. Snow is expected to pretty much end Sunday morning though some lingering snow showers may still occur over the higher mtns through the day.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 57 48 66 / 10 10 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 53 46 65 / 10 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 38 52 46 64 / 20 10 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 49 39 63 / 20 10 10 40.
708 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Colder air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
818 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Cooler air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
Winds continue to drop as high pressure builds in. Progressive shift of ridge to the east will veer winds rather rapidly through tomorrow from north to east.
A weak cold front will move through the area this evening and reinforce the seasonably cool airmass in place. This boundary will become a more defined warm front to our south early Sunday and advance northward into part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon.
These clouds will be pivotal in the low temp forecast for tonight.
This is allowing temperatures to climb into the low 50s for those south of I-40.
528 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 A cold front will move southward through the TAF sites during the morning hours on Sunday. Some freezing drizzle will also be possible mainly for GUY. This could be accompanied with some patchy freezing fog/freezing drizzle possible right before sunrise. The latest 12Z short range models are in a little better agreement with respect to cold frontal timing. Regarding the threat for wintry precipitation, there may be some potential for patchy freezing fog and light freezing drizzle Sunday morning across the OK Panhandle and far nern TX Panhandle.
High pressure builds into the region tonight. The low level clouds should also begin to clear from northwest to southeast later tonight. The high will maintain influence over southern Wisconsin on Sunday as snow spreads across central Illinois.
A weather system moving north of the area will bring a slight chance of rain and snow showers to the White Mountains late tonight into Sunday night with cooler temperatures area-wide on Sunday with some breezes.
Our KWWD terminal will drop below freezing tonight, and could see some light freezing drizzle to rain.
Radar imagery and surface obs this evening show some light rain and drizzle has developed across much of the area ahead of a cold front current moving across our northwest zones. Also added patchy fog to the area overnight as dewpoint depressions are already on the low side, although the northwest winds behind the front will help to alleviate this somewhat.
522 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals through Sunday afternoon, ahead of a strong cold front that will affect most areas after sunset Sunday evening. A cold front will be located near the Red River around midday Sunday. Temperatures across the northern Big Country may slowly fall by late afternoon, as the cold front slowly moves through the region.
804 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 The trailing edge of the cold front that moved through the area earlier today is now located over the Florida Keys. Latest surface observations and satellite imagery are showing clear skies and cooler temps for most of west central and southwest Florida. Current reported temperatures are coming in 5-10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Winds and seas will continue to decrease overnight as high pressure builds into the area.
Cloud moving into the area and warmer temps will improve wind chill conditions. Cold air will still be in place at the beginning of the week, with a ridge of high pressure settling over the forecast area Mon morning.
Cloud moving into the area and warmer temps will improve wind chill conditions. Cold air will still be in place at the beginning of the week, with a ridge of high pressure settling over the forecast area Mon morning. Sunday has the risk of seeing a period of lower MVFR cigs across the area as warmer airmass moves in.
Any lingering snow chances end after 18Z in eastern areas as the 500mb trough axis exits the east. A weak cold front will move through and with 850mb temperatures near -5C, highs will remain cold mainly from the low to mid 30s.
Otherwise expect high pressure over the region to provide for Mostly Sunny skies after any inland fog dissipates by the mid morning hours. Light and variable winds become East 5-10 mph during the afternoon hours and this will keep the Atlc Coastal areas cooler with highs in the 60s, while inland areas will range from near 70 across inland SE GA and lower to middle 70s for inland NE FL. High pressure slides east of the region into the Atlc and steering flow becomes southerly and expect overnight lows slightly warmer with 40s over inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley and 50s elsewhere.