Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dew points remain elevated along and southeast of the boundary in the lower 70s, then just after fropa dew points begin to fall into the lower to middle 60s ahead of much drier air. Beachler 348 AM CDT Main focus in the near term is precipitation trends today as cold front moves southeast across the forecast area, then milder temperatures and somewhat lower humidity over the weekend. A cold front trailing from this low extended from the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan to eastern Iowa. Temps today should range from the low-mid 80s north to the upper 80s ahead of the front in the south.
High pressure over the region will gradually weaken through Saturday as low pressure approaches from the western British Columbia.
Weak sfc ridging continues along the Gulf coast while aloft the prevailing large high pres system continues to sit over TX ridging east into LA. 24 The ridge aloft will continue to dominate much of the area through the weekend, especially acrs the wrn half of the area where shower and tstm chcs will remain low as subsidence limits convective development. Rain chcs will increase some to the east of the Sabine River as the influence of the upper ridge becomes weaker and outflow boundaries from convection to the ne and east of the area interact with the northward moving sea/bay breeze acrs our ern zones.
442 AM PDT Fri Aug 5 2016 After a hot and sunny Friday, a strong slow moving low pressure system will move into the area Friday night.
730 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front. Canadian high pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes this weekend.
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Cold front associated with passing wave across Ontario making progress with drier air starting to advect in overnight. Cooler airmass as well so temperatures will flip to below normal for a change, with far lower humidity levels. Relatively quiet northwest flow or even slight ridging expected for weekend.
1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 /18Z TAFS/ Upper level high pressure will result in a continuation of VFR conditions across the terminals the next 24 hours. /issued 639 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Upper level high pressure will result in a continuation of VFR conditions across the terminals the next 24 hours. /issued 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and hot weather will continue again today with the upper level high centered overhead.
06Z surface data indicates the cold front ran from roughly the bay of Green Bay to the KMCI area. A squall line was ahead of the cold front across northern Missouri into Central Illinois. Dew points ahead of the cold front were in the 70s and in the 50s and 60s behind the cold front. Showers will end Friday morning across the south third of the area as the cold front slowly moves through the area. The proximity of the cold front will determine how much of the area will see rain. High pressure settles over the upper midwest through the weekend, keeping the region under the influence of a dry Canadian airmass.
623 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Broad high pressure will settle over the area today and tonight, with a very modest northerly breeze pretty much dying to near calm tonight. High temperatures today will range from 78 to 84, with the warmer readings northwest, HON/9V9/MHE area.
749 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front. Canadian high pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes this weekend.
A few light showers north of the lower Keys are possible, but not likely. Available mesoscale models are very bearish on any convective development, so the low slight chance pops currently forecast seem reasonable.
656 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front was bisecting the forecast area early this morning while widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanied the front. Highs may struggle to climb out of the lower 80s across much of central KS while locations near the OK state line may climb into the upper 90s. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the southern and central plains states through the period. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon over south-central/southeast Kansas along a cold front, which is expected to stall over far northern Oklahoma by early evening. Additional storms are expected to form over the higher terrain in Colorado late this pm/eve, translating eastward tonight within the monsoonal moisture plume.
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 348 AM CDT Main focus in the near term is precipitation trends today as cold front moves southeast across the forecast area, then milder temperatures and somewhat lower humidity over the weekend. A cold front trailing from this low extended from the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan to eastern Iowa. Temps today should range from the low-mid 80s north to the upper 80s ahead of the front in the south.
High pressure will persist ESE of the local waters with troughs lingering northwest of the region.
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances until its late night or early Saturday morning passage. A cold front is progged for approach and passage tonight through early Saturday.
Maliawco Upper low over British Columbia will be slowly spinning southward into the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. This will build a ridge over the northern plains today before opening the region to southwest flow aloft. Low level return flow will also be setting up over the high plains, but Gulf moisture stream will be interrupted by wave moving across the central plains. Dry and warmer conditions expected today with upper ridge building over the state. Lee trof begins forming by Saturday with southeast winds increasing into the region.
1155 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances until its late night or early Saturday morning passage. With noon update, expanded chance pops farther across southern tier counties, as well as adding some likely pops this afternoon across the WV/MD ridges considering current radar trends of showers moving north from West Virginia. A cold front is progged for approach and passage tonight through early Saturday.
608 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Cold front associated with passing wave across Ontario making progress with drier air starting to advect in overnight. Cooler airmass as well so temperatures will flip to below normal for a change, with far lower humidity levels. Relatively quiet northwest flow or even slight ridging expected for weekend.
1116 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions through midday.
The 12Z OHX sounding shows much drier midlevel air building in on the back side of this trough, and so the eastern half will be the favored area for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon.
614 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Large complex of thunderstorms that developed in advance of a cold front across Iowa last evening and spilled into west-central Illinois overnight is currently ongoing along/west of I-55. it appears likely that storms will redevelop along this boundary rather than the approaching cold front. Cold front will sink southward through the area this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing the higher rain chances into the Ohio River Valley later tonight.
938 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 No significant updates were made to the forecast this morning, as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead.
Weak upper level trough off the northern California coast is now moving inland from a parent upper level low in the southeast Gulf of Alaska. A slight chance of thunderstorms again over the higher terrain on Saturday afternoon.
By late tonight, clouds will increase, as influence of the upper ridge wanes, and allows a front to approach from the northwest. On Friday, the upper ridge will contract a bit or move a little more westward, which should allow a frontal boundary to move into the area. There will be more clouds as well, and as a result cooler temperatures. Of course, when you're dealing with 100-degree temperatures and heat index values pushing 110 degrees, cooler is a relative term.
Morning water vapor and H5 analysis place a mid level short wave stretching from east central Nevada south into southwestern Utah, ejecting northeast from the primary upper low over Norcal. The deepest moisture is beginning to shift over southeastern Utah where convergent mid level flow (largely associated with the return flow from the high) is aiding to pool PWATs in the 1. While humidities decrease, southwesterly winds will also begin to increase ahead of a trough over the West Coast states.
520 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over west TX with weak upper low moving newd through nw NM. Upper high and monsoon moisture plume shift slightly wwd today, keeping showers and storms from developing over the east- central and SE plains. Outflow boundary moving wwd thru canyons of central mountain chain will combine with a weak wave in sly flow aloft to generate isold showers and storms in the lower and mid RGV this morning. That said, PWATs will still be around or slightly above normal through the weekend and an active storm pattern will continue despite the upper high edging further west into southeast New Mexico.
Deep easterly flow will remain in place with a stubborn ridge to the north.
The subtropical ridge remains along 28N Lattitude, well south of a favorable moisture tap position for the summer Monsoons. An extention of the ridge pushes northward into Nevada this morning keeping much of northern Arizona in a dry to low grade Monsoon pattern through Tuesday.
846 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region.
1207 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region.
657 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Cooler temperatures aloft today combined with strong daytime heating of moist airmass should give way to scattered diurnally driven convection across the region for this afternoon/evening. Heading into Tuesday upper level ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies with a short wave trough aloft dropping southeast across the upper Mississippi valley region. Once again strong daytime heating of moist airmass should give way to afternoon convection on Tuesday but we should witness a little more coverage with aid of weak upper level trough axis.
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ Easterly low level fetch today will continue to pull moisture into the area from the Gulf of Mexico around the south side of weak mid-level ridge over the southeast U. This along with parts of the area under the influence of the upper low to our west likely to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again today.
948 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this morning with high pressure building over the region between tonight and Tuesday.
859 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday.
738 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this morning with high pressure building over the region between tonight and Tuesday.
1139 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 70 94 71 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 68 92 69 / 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 92 69 / 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 64 90 66 / 20 10 30 20.
A low pressure disturbance will impact the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing breezy winds, slightly cooler temperatures and a minor possibility of dry thunderstorms over the north Bay. A mean trough pattern will bring continued below seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. All this is in advance of an approaching mid/upper level trough and associated weak frontal boundary that is forecast to push through the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. Fort Ord profiler also indicates that the depth of the layer has dropped to less than 1,500 feet marking the lowest value in quite some time.
725 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region early today.
954 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will build over the forecast area today. Mostly sunny but cooler today with highs from the low to mid 70s in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 80s along the southern Tier of counties. At upper levels, a ridge builds over the Front Range in response to an upper level low that moves into the coast of British Columbia/Washington. In response, broad low pressure develops over the Rockies. The upper level low over the west coast continues to expand, and the downstream ridge expands eastward.
722 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms are lingering in the vicinity of the cold front this morning. some shower/thunderstorm activity has developed in eastern ND close to the cold front. an upper wave is currently passing to the north of the area and a cold front is pushing southeast across eastern ND at this time. High pressure will then settle into the area overnight with clearing skies and lows in the 50s. high pressure will dominate with highs mostly in the 70s and sunny skies.
1003 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today before moving offshore.
836 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday night.
10 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak inverted trough/T-wave axis extends NE from T. Higher coverage (50-60 north/60-70 south)is expected owing to an upward creep in PWATs and less suppressive influence of the mid-upper low off to the NE.
An offshore low pressure trough across the northeastern Pacific Ocean will approach the area the next few days resulting in a gradual decrease in the inland temperatures.
1224 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure moving slowly southeast across the Great Lakes will provide generally fair weather across our area today and tonight, though there remains a small chance of showers and thunderstorms over southwestern portions of the area through this evening close to a lingering frontal boundary. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
High pressure will be the main wx feature across the region today. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, temperatures will remain quite warm with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s Plateau. Upper high expected to remain over the area through the period.
1131 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region.
/Issued 430 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ 08z surface analysis has dew points in the low to mid 60s across most of the area with light south-southeast winds. Ward Over the course of the day on Tuesday, the upper low which has helped to bring ample rain to the Panhandles will finally start to move to the northeast. This change in the upper air pattern is in response to a retreating ridge from the SE US.
With mid level ridge over the area, steering flow will be quite weak and this means storms and associated outflow boundaries will move in odd directions. Afternoon highs will be slightly cooler than yesterday, being in the middle 80s in the north to around 90 in the southeast. A strong 594 dm 500 mb subtropical high pressure ridge from the mid Atlantic states and ridging westward across the Ohio and mid MS river valleys today and Tuesday will give way to a fairly strong upper level trof digging southward over the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley Wed/Thu. At the surface, 1026 mb high pressure over lower MI and into Ontario will be replaced by a stronger/larger Canadian high pressure moving slowly southeast into the Great Lakes region late this week.
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016 A bit of high pressure ridging inland has helped keep the majority of the rainfall along the coast. The precip is courtesy of a weak upper level low over the western Gulf. Will begin to dry things out on Tuesday and taper PoPs from the highest over the SW and lower to the NE.
/12Z TAFS/ Low to mid level cyclonic winds have picked up early this morning as a low pressure system drifts southwest along the TX coast. An upper level low meandering over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Texas coastal areas will bring slightly above normal moisture to South Central Texas today through Tuesday.
1104 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Update Plenty of sunshine should be seen today as high pressure will be situated across the Great Lakes region. The high will slide off to the southeast of the area tonight allowing a cold front to approach from the north on Tuesday.
Some cooler air aloft will push inland over NE FL/SE GA as the mid/upper level trof axis slides westward and this may help trigger a few 30-40 mph gusts in the heavier shower/isold storm activity this afternoon. Activity fades once again inland after sunset but with mid/upper level trof axis shifting inland and onshore steering flow expect coastal areas to remain more unsettled with scattered showers/isolated storms with even more possible over the coastal waters tonight. This weak mid/upper level trof over the region on Tuesday will continue to support scattered to numerous showers with embedded storms at times with best chances east of the trof axis along the coast and over the coastal waters.
Cloud cover over the northeast plains should be increasing through the afternoon as the high level moisture rotates around the upper low. With the increasing cloud cover, afternoon temperatures should peak in the lower and mid 80s. An upper level low currently over northwest New Mexico will lift northeast across Colorado today and weaken. Airmass will again be somewhat moist with precipitable water values ranging from a half inch over the higher terrain to one inch over the eastern plains. Will have the highest pops along and south of Interstate 70 and across the eastern plains where the best instability will reside. This will help keep temperatures slightly cooler today with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. However, northern areas may see some clearing resulting in cooler temperatures.
High pressure ridging over Idaho this morning will work its way into western and central MT later today, bringing a mix of clear skies and passing high clouds.
An upper level low pressure system over the Four Corners area will move slowly eastward today, as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Basin. The ridge of high pressure will remain over the region on Tuesday, before shifting east. Heights continue to rise across the eastern Great Basin this morning as mid level ridging builds in from the southwest, this in wake of the departing upper low now over northern New Mexico. The attendant subsidence aloft will aid warming of the column today through midweek and anticipate a marked jump in temps over the next 48+ hours as the ridge will remain the dominant player in local weather through that time.
Expect the better coverage of convection in the nthrn portion of the CWA away from the heart of the upper lvl ridge. One approaches the Pacific NW out of the Gulf of Alaska while the other tops the ridge across cntrl Canada and starts to drop into ern Canada. The short wave digging into ern Canada will allow a cold front to drop into the region drng the middle of the week so the coverage of PM SHRAs/TSTMs should be greater on Tue. More cloud cover and better precip chances should lead to slightly cooler high temps on Tue than the past several days. then highs may make it well into the low 90s again.
Upper level high pressure will continue to be the main weather feature on the charts today. This upper level high, which is basically sitting right over us, will actually retrograde westward with time early this week. As the upper high begins retrograding westward on Tuesday, it weakens as well.
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Hydro Plenty of sunshine should be seen today as high pressure will be situated across the Great Lakes region. The high will slide off to the southeast of the area tonight allowing a cold front to approach from the north on Tuesday.
714 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Models continue to advertise large scale pattern becoming well amplified over the next couple days with an upper ridge becoming established over the central conus by mid week. POPs in going forecast look reasonable for now as models persist in showing several impulses undercutting the developing upper ridge will help maintain potential for precip activity across the majority of the central plains.
Afternoon thunderstorm activity initially confined to the eastern Arizona mountains will likely affect the lower deserts mid to late week. A drying trend is then likely through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the western states. An upper low is centered over southwest Colorado/northwest Mexico this morning and there is a positively tilted ridge across California, the Great Basin, and western AZ.
751 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Aviation Plenty of sunshine should be seen today as high pressure will be situated across the Great Lakes region. The high will slide off to the southeast of the area tonight allowing a cold front to approach from the north on Tuesday.
1129 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday.
Subtle upper level waves embedded in a southerly tropical flow will cross western Kansas today and tonight as they rotate around an upper level ridge axis that will be located over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a tropical air mass will continue Tuesday as the upper level ridge axis shifts westward into western Oklahoma and the upper low, located near the four corners region at 00z Monday, slowly moves east northeast across northern New Mexico.
1025 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Low pressure system continues to linger along the TX coast and bring tstms to areas of se TX/srn LA this morning. The water vapor shows the wet half of the now elongated upper low content just off shore, but still in a good position to favor a sea breeze into our cwa with a tiny vort moving in over SW LA at this time. The models keep this low slowly sinking southward in the coming days. In general, high pressure on the surface will reside over the Eastern half of the country.
As high pressure slides across the area mid to high clouds are anticipated to quickly exit. Light winds are quickly veering around the high and hourly wind fields were updated with the latest information. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The short term period begins for Northeast Montana with an upper ridge in place over the Divide and zonal flow aloft. The boundary between the cooler air-mass to the north and the warmer air-mass to the south will be across the local area.
1016 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Cold front at 15z nr a ROX-TVF-FAR line. some shower/thunderstorm activity has developed in eastern ND close to the cold front. an upper wave is currently passing to the north of the area and a cold front is pushing southeast across eastern ND at this time. High pressure will then settle into the area overnight with clearing skies and lows in the 50s. high pressure will dominate with highs mostly in the 70s and sunny skies.
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region early today.