Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There has been a general diminishing of activity from MLB southward, but maritime convection was being invigorated from increasing NE flow that will work its way down the coast from JAX courtesy of high pressure pushing south down the U. The result is a ~15KT NE wind surge today which will be instrumental in bumping the banded moisture/trough and associated rain chances to South FL by tonight advecting in deep layer drying. Onshore flow will persist through the extended as West Atlantic high pressure builds back in, with ridge axis remaining north of the area. High pressure will build back in north of the area with a persistent onshore flow through the week.
658 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will continue to gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days.
Later this evening, the H5 ridge continues to build into the region from the northeast, continuing to suppress shower activity.
143 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from New England into the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday.
Despite a mid-level ridge analyzed directly overhead this morning, the lower level ridge axis is expected to remain just north and east of the forecast area. The resulting southwesterly flow through the low to mid levels should keep a very moist airmass (PWAT values near 2 inches) over at least the western/southwestern half of the ArkLaMiss through Tuesday. Subsidence with the ridge should limit any widespread precipitation over our northeastern counties (eastern-central Mississippi), though it is still possible to see an isolated shower or storm through those areas.
A frontal system will bring a good chance for light rain to the lowlands on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Upper high pressure system will remain entrenched over the lower MS/Ohio River Valleys through the period. Will leave isolated POPs in for now just in case a few storms manage to develop under the mid/upper ridge axis. Afternoon temps rising to near 90 and lower 90s will combine with the higher humidity to produce heat indices up near 100 today in portions of se MO/far wrn KY.
353 AM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine is positioned approximately 350 miles east of Ocean City Maryland, and will continue to impact the northeast U.
The low level flow will be in a generally easterly direction. Given the higher chance of showers and storms, have placed a predominate SHRA at all sites, with a PROB30 for TSRA through the afternoon hours. As high pressure builds over the Atlantic by mid week, a typical summer weather pattern should return to South Florida. By late afternoon, light east winds in the lower levels will allow for a sea breeze convergence over the western interior. Tuesday through the weekend, high pressure building over the Atlantic will bring a return to the more typical summerlike pattern to South Florida.
250 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof over the wrn conus with main low over swrn MT. Additional shra/tsra development expected this aftn as atmos destabilizes and more energy aloft rotates around the main upper low over MT.
The higher instability is across western portions of the county warning area. The low-level jet is strong enough to include shear in the forecast, despite the fact that surface wind will be relatively strong.
A deep low pressure trough aloft will move eastward over North- Central and Southwest MT overnight tonight through 06Z/Tue. The main upper level low that is currently causing all the precipitation over the region will move northward from central Idaho into Southwest MT by Monday morning.
518 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will continue to gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days.
The first is an inverted trough stretching from SE TX to SE LA. The 850mb front will progress westward later this morning causing the tail end of the front and inverted trough to move inland.
a well defined frontal boundary extends from northeastern North Dakota through central South Dakota and into a lee cyclone over west central Wyoming. Otherwise, most of Monday looks to be mostly dry with warmer temperatures,breezy conditions and less cloud cover.
348 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 High pressure will continue across the CWFA through the entire short term period. The trough/upper low associated with Hermine will continue to push off the east coast. Meanwhile, a high pressure center currently located across the central Gulf States will build eastward. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build down from the north on the back side of Hermine.
337 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
256 AM PDT MON SEP 5 2016 A low pressure system moving inland through the western states will maintain below average temperatures and a deep marine layer with areas of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog extending into the far inland valleys into Tuesday.
628 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
140 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 An expansive area of high pressure will remain across New England and maintain the dry weather pattern through mid-week.
However, narrowing dew point depressions over the last several hours is indicative of the low level moistening that has taken place. Drier weather and milder temperatures are expected on Tuesday with high pressure over the area.
329 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Upper level ridge builds overhead and keeps the area dry for the next several days.
Highs both days over the Plains will likely be in the lower 90s as SW flow aloft increases ahead of an approaching trough. From Wed onward, flow aloft transitions to more of a zonal pattern as a series of low amplitude trough move through the N Rockies. A weak upper low to our south may bring some modest moisture into extreme southern portions of our area Thu. Temps will remain near 90 over the Plains and in the 70s for the high valleys.
305 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Return southerly flow is underway with both temperature and dewpoint values noticeably warmer than recent nights.
Tuesday through the end of the week, high pressure builds over the Atlantic returning east to southeasterly flow across South Florida.
Deep southwest flow, the dry airmass, and warm advection aloft should result in temps a couple degrees warmer than those observed yesterday. A weak northerly surge will aid further development early this morning before daytime heating aids mixing and erosion of the low clouds/fog.
346 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 (labor Day and Tonight) The forecast area will be on the western periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS through tonight. The bulk of the low to mid-level gulf moisture flowing into southeast and East Texas around the upper high should not dramatically affect our forecast area today but may increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms over our southeastern counties this afternoon and evening. The remainder of the CWA should see highs in the lower 90s. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower 70s.
Surface ridging extends across Eastern Conus behind the slowly exiting remains of Hermine in the Western Atlantic pulling away from the Eastern U. 9u satellite showing low level moisture/stratus clouds moving around this ridge and bringing gulf moisture into the southwest counties of Central Alabama this morning.
As a result temperatures are expected to be somewhat cooler.
High pressure will set up just N/NW of the region and drier airmass will settle over the region with mostly clear skies expected. This drier airmass will allow for min temps to fall into the middle/upper 60s inland (even some lower 60s possible in normally cooler locations) while the onshore flow along the coast will keep min temps there in the lower 70s.
1120 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Mean western conus trough and associated impulses will continue to affect the region in the period. Convection chances will continue through the night as the main jet streak and upper trough lifts over the region. Cooler conds expected nw 2/3 with highs slightly below seasonal norms most areas, coolest over far nw areas.
Upper level pattern this morning is on track with previous progs with analysis showing an upper level trough over the Inter- mountain west, ridging building from the Mississippi River valley into the Great Lakes and closed off upper low associated with post tropical storm Hermine. The upper ridge should build more today and tomorrow over much of the southern U.
341 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Early this morning a broad mid-level ridge remained anchored across the eastern U. with a deep mid-level trough centered just west of the Rockies. Short-range models had been trying to suggest that some isolated precipitation may develop across far northern KS early this morning with the low-level jet and some weak isentropic lift present, however the latest runs have been trending away from this solution, likely due to the amount of dry air that would need to be overcome. Dry and warmer conditions are expected for the Labor Day holiday as the region remains wedged between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Tuesday continues to look precip-free and warm with highs mainly in the low 90s given 850 hPa temps 20-24 degrees with plenty of sun and gusty south winds.
323 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Ridge of high pressure that provided cool/dry weather to central Illinois over the past couple of days has shifted eastward into the Appalachians. This will help bring warmer and more humid conditions back into the area today. to the lower 70s west of I-55. Blocking pattern will remain in place across the central/eastern CONUS through mid-week, as remains of Hurricane Hermine meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
534 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Upper level ridge builds overhead and keeps the area dry for the next several days.
121 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will continue to gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days.
/ISSUED 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/ Earlier convection has dropped some cooler air across parts of the southeastern quadrant of the CWA. although a better fetch of moist air and proximity to the upper low may bring a little better coverage across the area tomorrow.
934 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 A large upper level low is nearly stationary over the western Great Lakes this morning. Several other short waves are diving out of the Pacific Northwest on the back side of the upper low bringing cold Artic air through the Northern Tier States. With the support for the shear zone, "decaying front", to our north, and the high pressure aloft, have delayed showers until after midnight for the island chain.
A northwest Pacific longwave trough was commencing to move across the Great Basin early this morning, and poised to shift east southeast onto the Rockies and the Plains by mid-late week.
/Issued 352 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ Latest observations show the first cold front has made its way through the Panhandles and in its wake, colder temperatures and windy conditions are expected throughout the day today with high temperatures dropping below average for early December.
508 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 (Today and Tonight) A cold front with post frontal stratus will move through West Central Texas this morning. Cooler with clouds and cooler air behind the the front. Highs will be in the lower 50s south.
1059 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, then a cold front will sweep through this afternoon.
The latest RAP and HRRR sounding for the area does show a good dry layer between 700 and 900 mb and likely dynamic cooling under the highest radar reflectivities is helping to bring down some sleet pellets with the rain. At the surface, high pressure was centered over central PA. Locally, readings were in the low to mid 40s. Highs today will top out in the 40s for most, with parts of south-central KY around the Lake Cumberland region reaching the low 50s. West to northwest winds this evening and tonight will bring in drier and cooler air, and plan on temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 30s.
928 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday.
Additional fog formation is expected as winds become light ahead of the strong cold front passage expected for the afternoon. An upper trough axis will swing newd through srn WI this afternoon along with the passage of the front.
Main concern will be the high impact winter storm/blizzard ongoing or developing. Strong upper low.
838 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Cold front pushing across eastern IA this morning will rapidly dissipate the dense fog/low stratus that's ahead of the front. areas of fog and low clouds cover the region with temperatures around freezing north to the mid 30s south. A cold front with scattered flurries just behind the front north of I-80 is approaching northwest sections of the area. cold front should pass from west to east roughly between 6 AM and 11 AM with fog rapidly dissipating and clearing skies.
911 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 complex area of low pressure approaching the tennessee valley will continue to lift northeast today, with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the mid atlantic coast by this evening.
Another lobe of energy rotates around the upper low on Wednesday, thus bringing a chance for some snow showers to eastern parts of the CWA during said time frame.
839 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure will build toward the area from the west today and will crest over Maine this evening.
610 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure will build toward the area from the west today and will crest over Maine this evening.
640 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure builds over the area today. A weak trough of low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday morning with more light snow possible.
924 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure builds over the area today. A weak trough of low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday morning with more light snow possible.
The closed low moves slowly east and moves an upper trough into the upper Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight with the low ending up near Thunder Bay Ontario by 12z Wed. Used the prob ice present to depict snow and a narrow band moves through the cwa today with the cold front. Out ahead of the cold front, removed snow out of the forecast and went with drizzle, freezing drizzle and rain showers based on temperatures. If the low develops, snow will likely move into the Keweenaw very early on Wed (possibly even before 12Z) and may be very heavy. Set headline start times to match best expectation for when the trough moves in, but adjustments may need to be made. Band of light snow with a cold front will move across the area this afternoon.
A cold weather system moves into northern Nevada today bringing scattered snow showers with some accumulations in the higher terrain.
Lots of clouds in place this morning, but may see some breaks in the clouds later this afternoon with some drier air and weak ridging over the area, especially across our Eastern zones.
430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF by 10Z. Biggest concerns this forecast will be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west.
416 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Latest sfc analysis shows the low which moved through the region yesterday is now located over nrn MS. while weak high pressure is noted over the wrn Gulf which is providing the forecast area with a slightly elevated wrly flow this morning.
areas of fog and low clouds cover the region with temperatures around freezing north to the mid 30s south. A cold front with scattered flurries just behind the front north of I-80 is approaching northwest sections of the area. cold front should pass from west to east roughly between 6 AM and 11 AM with fog rapidly dissipating and clearing skies.
The main upper low center is currently over southeastern Washington. Light snow showers continue to develop along the south side of the low and are swinging into the Blue Mountains and the adjacent foothills. As the upper low shifts into southern Idaho late this morning and this afternoon, should continue to see light snow showers as moisture wraps around the back side of the low.
09z H5 analysis reveals an upper level low embedded in southwesterly flow located over northeast Louisiana, with ample moisture present locally. Surface temperatures range from the lower 40s across northeast Arkansas this hour to the upper 50s across portions of northeast Mississippi. A strong, but fairly dry, cold front will push into the region on Wednesday night, accompanied by limited overrunning moisture. Temperatures will drop in earnest, with Wednesday night lows in the upper 20s to near 30s over the northern half of the FA and in the low to mid 30s over the southern half.
418 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Main concern will be the high impact winter storm/blizzard ongoing or developing. Strong upper low.
The H5 short wave over the lower Mississippi Valley will move rapidly east northeast today. Rapid drying aloft should keep any showers/tstorms from developing along the cold front as it moves across the CWA this afternoon. The warm front to our south has not been progged very well by the models and it still remains south of the CWA. IFR cigs will hold until the cold front passes which should be between 14 and 18z this morning.
540 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery shows potent closed low rotating northeast over eastern North Dakota with trailing trough extending into western Nebraska. This system has allowed a strong cold front to drop southeast across the region followed by gusty northwest winds.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Winds remain light this morning as high pressure remains across the northwestern Gulf. The southwest wind will help push daytime highs into the low to mid 80s. cooler air will move into the northern portions of the region, with highs Wednesday varying between the upper 60s for the ranchlands to the upper 70s for the lower valley.
632 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 A low pressure system will lift northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Middle Ohio Valley region by noon today.
420 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 The first of two cold fronts has made it through the CWFA with chilly and gusty winds in its wake. However, an impressive and quite wide trough is positioned to our north with a parent low up near Lake Superior.
430 AM PST Tue Dec 6 2016 A low pressure system moving from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin will bring stronger onshore flow across Southern California through tonight with more clouds and with gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
An area of low pressure will move from the Tennessee Valley into the Upper Ohio Valley today, bringing rain to much of central Indiana. (A cold front will also move through this afternoon, but it won't have much forcing or moisture to work with.
Cold front, currently just south of a OKC/BVO line will sweep across the area by late morning with low clouds clearing from north to south. Meanwhile cold front working its way into northeast OK at present will continue to push southeast through the day bringing an initial surge of cooler air. More significant cold front will arrive Wednesday with temperatures likely topping out early in the day in northern sections before turning much colder with gusty north winds returning. In the upper levels, a broad trough will extend across much of the central U.
Low pressure tracking northeast from the TN River Valley into the upper OH River Valley region will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers to much of the region early today. The precip will begin to taper off from west to east during the morning as the low exits the region. Drier air will continue to work into the region tonight and Wednesday as high pressure presses southeast from the Dakotas. High temps may not make it out of the upper 20s up along the I-64 corridor on Thu, with other locations struggling to get into the lower to mid 30s. High pressure will be sprawling from central Canada down into the central and southern Plains states at the start of the period.
505 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 12Z TAF issuance Cold front currently crossing the I-20 corridor will slow and settle along the Pecos River this afternoon. /issued 430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF by 10Z. Biggest concerns this forecast will be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west.
557 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 A cold front was barreling across the state during the overnight hours. This front will usher in much cooler air for today with highs struggling to climb out of the low 40s with continued low level cold air advection.
1043 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Latest IR satellite imagery shows linear convection building along a cold front draped from north-central Florida southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.
929 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Rain will spread across the forecast area today as low pressure tracks across SE Ohio. The low will track east of the area overnight and dissipate.
overnight mins remained up in the lower to mid 70s, which will set record warm lows if we don't fall back below that before midnight. South to southwest winds will increase 20-25 knots over the offshore waters early this morning as low pressure deepens over MS/AL. Winds will veer out of the west and decrease 15-20 knots behind pre frontal trough this eve, then veer NW after midnight as cold front pushes across the waters.
334 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over eastern ND, with broad trof across the northwestern and north central CONUS. At the surface, deep low pressure is located across northwest MN with arctic high centered over western MT.
636 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure builds over the area today. A weak trough of low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday morning with more light snow possible.
331 AM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 High amplitude ridge aloft will continue to build over the Great Basin and much of the Western U. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today following the weak disturbance. A weak disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft over the state will bring another round of afternoon and evening convection, mainly over the higher terrain but there will be a slight chance of a few storms pushing southeast across the urban corridor and Palmer Divide. Temperatures will be warming as the upper ridge over the western states moves closer.
320 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 An upper level trough passing into the Midwest has pushed a cold front into southwestern Kansas early this morning.
WV imagery depicts the midlvl center of the broad low pressure area accelerating swd across Central TX. Convection is expected to diminish tonight with the loss of heating and as the low pressure area shifts south of the area and subsequent northerly flow deepens.
1035 PM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest during the next several days. Dry weather is expected, with warmer temperatures. Otherwise conditions remain quiet with a ridge building in. Some high clouds a trying to slip up from the west and southwest, but are thus far dissolving a bit as they come toward the Cascades/eastern WA into that ridge. Cote' 06Z TAFS: High pressure building into the region will mean dry and VFR conditions and generally lighter diurnal winds.
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 A weak cold front will stall near the coast today. Clouds will spread across the region tonight with rain and a few thunderstorms arriving for Sunday ahead of a warm front.
331 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Closed low over Minnesota with trough through Mississippi valley. Ridging from southeast conus through Great Lakes ahead of the closed low. Strong pronounced ridge over the western conus.