Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 227 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/ A few very light shwrs have developed across our extreme ern areas this aftn, where moisture is slightly higher due to the presence of a weak upper low along the central Gulf Coast. Slightly better chances for shwrs/tstms, at least in terms of coverage, will come into play Wednesday, as a cold front begins to move through our region. All of this in spite of the upper ridge, which will remain anchored across S TX even as a disturbance rides over the top and spills in to the ern CONUS through the end of the work week.
This is as a cold front moves through late tonight bringing much cooler air to the area.
with afternoon wv imagery revealing broad troughing across the western 2/3rds of the country and ridging downstream of this feature east of the Great Plains into the western Atlantic. Hurricane Maria can be found underneath of the ridge east of the Outer Banks of NC. In the lower levels. extensive areas of high pressure exist on both sides of a cold frontal boundary located roughly from Upper Great Lakes S/SW into the TX Big Bend. Today is another beautiful day across the CWA as high pressure continues to influence the area both at the sfc and aloft. At the very end of the short term on Wednesday night a cold front will approach the NW zones.
Cooler drier air will continue to filter into the rest of the forecast area, with cooler more seasonal type temps moving into the region for tonight into Wed. Ridging looks to shift over the region for Wed night through Fri, with drier air moving into the northern plains, which will bring rain chances to an end. Ketcham Upper ridging looks to flatten out by the end of the weekend, with chances of showers and a few storms increasing for late Sun or early Mon.
Ridging is in place at the surface and aloft along with a fairly dry air mass. Also, a trough is over the western states with one short wave located over the upper midwest.
High pressure continues to dominate the region, with calm winds and fog potential again overnight.
Also used the NationalBlend model for overnight lows tonight to lower temperatures across the colder basins in the mountains given clearing skies after midnight along with upper ridging moving overhead promoting optimal radiational cooling. CC High pressure will gradually build east across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies tonight through the remainder of this week for warming and drying conditions.
737 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday as Hurricane Maria moves slowly northward off the NC coast.
951 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring us another foggy night tonight and early Wednesday. later Wednesday, a cold front will push through the area and trigger some scattered showers. Cooler air behind the front will be over the area through the weekend, with partly cloudy skies. For Wednesday into the evening, a surface cold front pushes through with little support aloft. Some surface based instability available along with low level convergence however the ridging aloft makes for weak mid level lapse rates and overall poor chances for significant convection. This period will be much cooler.
High pressure will remain in place over the Mid South through the remainder of tonight. /issued 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/ 3 PM surface analysis showed a cold front extending from northwest AR, through southeast MO, into central IL.
600 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE The backdoor cold front which swept across NM today is moving westward across western NM this evening. Low pressure will develop across western AZ late tonight and Wednesday.
724 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday as Hurricane Maria moves slowly northward off the NC coast.
The only update this evening was to expire the High Risk of rip currents for the beaches. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast.
with the upper low over North Dakota. Some drier air/subsidence under the exiting trough did bring some breaks in the clouds to the west, but thicker clouds remain farther west into the eastern dakotas.
A cold front was situated from Freeport down to Burlington and Keokuk. Well to the west, over the NW section of the CWA, highs were only in the lower 70s. For tonight, it will be much cooler with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s as high pressure begins to take hold.
Upper low will complete its trek across the fa this evening taking rain across the north with it. A bit cooler air works in behind departing wave and if we can clear out temperatures may be able to dip into the 30s with localized frost possible.
639 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 The cold front will continue to slide slowly east across the forecast area this evening with isolated showers along it. Instability parameters not very impressive along or just ahead of the front with weak mid level lapse rates and not much in the way of surface or elevated instability, so will continue on with the low chance POPs for showers along and just behind the boundary, mainly this evening. The front should be pushing to our east and south on Wednesday with cooler weather filtering southeast into the region. Warmest readings tomorrow afternoon will be over southeast Illinois with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s, while some very pleasant readings settle in over our far northern counties where low to mid 70s will be common.
831 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 23z sfc analysis shows the stagnant pattern of weak high pressure through eastern Kentucky still holding. Like the last few nights we will see a ridge to valley temperature split develop along with valley fog. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 70s most places with dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s while the winds are light and variable. This is apparent even this afternoon as increased gradient is seen over the east coast with Maria passing by and also over the west with the next trough approaching. The next mentioned front will approach the area by Wednesday afternoon but with high pressure holding , this feature will begin to dry and shear out with only a few sprinkles expected.
732 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through tonight. A cold front will move through on Wednesday bringing the chance for showers and a transition to cooler temperatures. A cold front will move through on Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into the area allowing for temperatures to drop down into the 50s Wednesday night. Summary - High confidence in a cooler airmass than recent weeks that will be largely dry with no impact weather.
801 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 A cold front over the western Great Lakes will cross the area on Wednesday.
941 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 The summer like weather continues on Wednesday with high pressure over the Region.
Mid-upper low anchored in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has had limited moisture to work with the past few days, but boundary interactions led to isolated showers and lightning storms around Lake Okeechobee late this afternoon and into early evening.
Tonight, the model consensus retraces higher rainfall amounts westward in response to the way the cold front leaks southward over eastern counties and hangs up over the Rio Grande.
705 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure in control today.
1113 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 The summer like weather continues on Wednesday with high pressure over the Region.
Latest water vapor imagery shows upper trough in the southwest states and another across the northern Plains at 19Z. Highs on Wednesday look to warm up to the lower 70s. Ahead of these waves the southerly flow will support moisture return in the high plains. This will drive a cold front through the area, although there are some timing differences among the deterministic guidance. VFR conditions are expected to persist with surface ridging and dry air continuing to move in from the north.
Less confidence exists further west into south central SD, where more ample mixing this afternoon may have scoured out more of the low level moisture today.
1156 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Aviation A strong cold front will move across Lower Michigan this evening bringing and end to the record setting streak 90+ degree high temperatures.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 60s. With clear skies, overnight lows will once again drop into the lower to mid 30s across the northwest sandhills. On Wednesday, western Nebraska will remain within a split flow pattern with a closed low in the southern stream centered over western Arizona, and a broad trough extending across the Great Lakes into upper New England. With 850mb temperatures warming to 11 to 15C, highs to reach from near 70 to the lower 70s.
Upper low nearly over Lake Havasu City this evening. Satellite showing partly cloudy skies underneath the low extending northeast across Mohave County. Models continue to support the idea for a few light rain showers or embedded thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northern Mohave County in the afternoon/early evening.
High pressure dominates the areas weather with dry conditions tonight and the pops were lowered to reflect this. Minor adjustments were done to overnight temperatures that are forecast to fall into the 40s except in the 30s across the higher elevations.
it will be another quiet TAF period with high pressure dominating area weather.
1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 A cold front extending from near Branson to Rolla will continue to move east through the eastern CWA. ushering in drier and cooler air. a broad upper ridge will form over the western half of the nation that will translate eastward into the Ozarks warming temperatures to slightly above normal over the weekend.
/issued 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/ 3 PM surface analysis showed a cold front extending from northwest AR, through southeast MO, into central IL.
Afternoon surface analysis reveals low pressure across Wisconsin and slow moving cold front pressing into central Wisconsin down into the southern plains. Upstream short wave trough now progressing nicely North Dakota and the upper Midwest. Short wave will swing across the far northern lakes region tonight and finally kick the cold front through the western Great Lakes bringing an end to our September heat wave. A little more sunshine and warmer temps for the SE counties. In the meantime, an upper level trough will dig its way into the Great Lakes region.
Proton Previous Discussion: Satellite imagery and observations plainly show the exiting area of low pressure now over the Dakotas, with mostly clear or partly cloudy skies now moving into NE Montana. Even with a developing closed low pressure center over the Great Basin region through mid week, an over-arching ridge of high pressure will remain in control over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, which will be responsible for our expected conditions.
Temperatures, once again, ranged from the lower to middle 80s along the Cumberland Plateau to 85 to 90 elsewhere. A piddly cold front will sweep across our area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. With so few dynamics associated with our piddly cold front, believe any isolated thunderstorms that pop up in the afternoon heat should die off pretty quickly with the setting sun.
Ceilings will gradually increase in the northwest but remain VFR as a cold front slowly sags southeast into AR. VFR ceilings with isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be seen on Wednesday as the cold front slowly sags southeast.
1014 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 A cold front over the central Great Lakes will cross the area on Wednesday.
726 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring us another foggy night tonight and early Wednesday. later Wednesday, a cold front will push through the area and trigger some scattered showers. Cooler air behind the front will be over the area through the weekend, with partly cloudy skies. Enough instability to trigger some very isolated showers over the higher elevations of the Catskills into northeast Pennsylvania. However, very limited moisture in the low levels and even drier air aloft is limiting them. For Wednesday into the evening, a surface cold front pushes through with little support aloft. Some surface based instability available along with low level convergence however the ridging aloft makes for weak mid level lapse rates and overall poor chances for significant convection. This period will be much cooler.
802 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Aviation A strong cold front will move across Lower Michigan this evening bringing and end to the record setting streak 90+ degree high temperatures.
946 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will continue to shift east tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday and will cross the region Wednesday night.
654 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Early this afternoon, a surface cold front was located from near KUIN to just east of KCOU. Many areas around STL metro and to the S and E will hang on to the clouds all night and remain in the 60s, only slightly cooler than last night.
A low pressure system will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to extreme eastern Arizona late tonight and Wednesday.
1140 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Early this afternoon, a surface cold front was located from near KUIN to just east of KCOU. Many areas around STL metro and to the S and E will hang on to the clouds all night and remain in the 60s, only slightly cooler than last night.
VFR is anticipated tomorrow as an onshore flow finally develops and helps to scour away the lower clouds. On Monday, models develop a warm front along the coastal low and moves it north of our area, bringing southerly flow back at the surface. Increasing surface temperatures and an approaching mid-level trough will increase instability, so have kept thunder in the forecast starting Monday afternoon.
Temperatures should hold pretty steady or even rise slightly, remaining above freezing where it's raining. Then we could have some light freezing rain concerns. Temperatures should remain above freezing at the TAF sites while the rain falls.
512 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast this afternoon. The lowest 5kft remains dry so what light rain that is falling is generally struggling to reach the surface as little more than sprinkles. There will be a break through the early evening and then possibly another round of light rain that may impact the lower CSRA but again no significant rainfall expected. Widespread and increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling this evening and overnight so expecting much warmer min temperatures tonight compared to last night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. An upper level disturbance falls apart as it moves into the mean ridge axis over the Southeast U.
The high pressure ridge axis will continue to sag into the central FL peninsula during the day as winds remain light areawide. Deep layer ridging remains stout over the region keeping surface/upper- level weather systems well north.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate early this week.
429 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over eastern portions of the Northern Plains with light southerly winds across much of the area. Ridge is beginning to rebuild over the Pacific NW. Mild and mainly dry weather will return for the first half of the week as the building ridge to the west gradually shifts east into the Plains.
640 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 Clouds will persist overnight with lows in the lower to middle 30s.
MSAS analyses depict the development of a coastal trough over the NWRN Gulf consistent with NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic NWP model output. Concur that the trough axis will eventually enter the ERN CWA Monday, likely supported in part by the foregoing jet sreak.
933 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 Clouds will persist overnight with lows in the lower to middle 30s.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep a southeast wind flow in place for the start of the work week with a shift to onshore near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Winds will become more southwest by mid-week as the high shifts eastward a bit.
940 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast overnight. Have adjusted hourly grids to account for this and also adjusted temperatures as observations are running a few degrees warmer than forecast. Widespread and increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling this evening and overnight so expecting much warmer min temperatures tonight compared to last night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. An upper level disturbance falls apart as it moves into the mean ridge axis over the Southeast U.
1052 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast overnight. Have adjusted hourly grids to account for this and also adjusted temperatures as observations are running a few degrees warmer than forecast. Widespread and increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling this evening and overnight so expecting much warmer min temperatures tonight compared to last night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. An upper level disturbance falls apart as it moves into the mean ridge axis over the Southeast U.
550 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Currently there is split upper level flow over the US with zonal flow along the US/Canadian border and a cut off low and broad ridging over the southeast US.
The evening local sounding shows the persistently veered lower profile has moderated the local airmass, pushing moisture values a bit higher and temperatures several degrees warmer than at this time yesterday evening. Winds will continue to mix more noticeably over the Straits than across the islands and the cooler Gulf and Bay waters.
with the low level moisture and light winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 59 46 61 / 20 10 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 57 43 60 / 20 10 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 40 57 43 59 / 20 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 55 39 59 / 30 20 10 30.
A ridge of high pressure across north cntl Fl will begin to move offshore tonight allowing for a warm front across Se Ga to nudge north. A warm front across the Se Ga coastal waters will move to the north tonight.
602 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 A weak area of low pressure will cross the region Monday bringing some light snow to the region.
Weak coastal troughing should enhance light overrunning effects later tonight with an increased chance of drizzle resulting from increasing boundary layer southerlies.
515 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 After a cooler day today, warmer weather will return for the start of the workweek. Short term models are in good agreement that the low cloud cover will scatter/erode by evening and with decreasing cloud cover tonight, temps should drop to the teens/20s for lows. Sunshine, downslope winds and airmass change of 7C at H8 will lead to a much warmer day with highs in the 50s.
311 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Upper low along the AZ/Mexico border this afternoon with weakening trough lifting newrd through the srn plains. Overnight, weak nrn stream upper trough drags across the region, but will have little impact other than to stir up the wind slightly over the mountains as it passes. On Monday, westerly flow deepens across the region while upper level low pressure remains well south across NM. Should see much warmer maxes all areas as mid levels warm and downslope flow develops.
438 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a split flow aloft with a southern stream low spinning along the AZ/northwest MX border, and progressive northern stream trough bisecting the Dakotas into northeast UT/northwest CO.
555 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Little change outside of observed trends through 23 UTC as a mild overnight is expected behind a warm front across western North Dakota early this evening that will propagate east through the night. Late tonight/early Monday morning a Canadian cold front will begin a southward descent into ND, progressing across the state through Monday. The proceeding warm front will make for a mild Monday, particularly in central and southern areas where high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 40s. Though we could see some precipitation track with the cold front as it drops south through the forecast area.
422 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Tonight and Monday: A 594dam high nearly centered over the Bahamas will remain in place through Monday while a weakening 557dam closed low over the desert southwest tracks east into west Texas.
658 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast this afternoon. The lowest 5kft remains dry so what light rain that is falling is generally struggling to reach the surface as little more than sprinkles. There will be a break through the early evening and then possibly another round of light rain that may impact the lower CSRA but again no significant rainfall expected. Widespread and increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling this evening and overnight so expecting much warmer min temperatures tonight compared to last night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. An upper level disturbance falls apart as it moves into the mean ridge axis over the Southeast U.
/Issued 352 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/ Latest visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the low clouds is still across far western Oklahoma, and we are not expecting clearing before morning. If the low clouds hang around, low temperatures should stay up in the 40s, similar to current dewpoint observations.
The upper level trof will sweep across Northern Colorado through this evening with skies becoming mostly clear. As the upper trof passes, there will be an uptick in winds over mountains and east slopes with stronger wind gusts this evening with increased subsident flow. Dry and warmer day on Monday under a weak west to northwest flow aloft. Models have upper ridging moving into the CWA Monday night. with a weak closed low south and southeast of Colorado.
556 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 A strong jet streak will work into the Northern Plains late tonight into Monday which will allow a westerly component to the low level flow. Went just a touch warmer on Monday given dry ground and westerly component, so looking at mid 50s in south central SD to mid 40s in southwest MN. While some cooler air will settle south Monday night, temperatures will still be well above normal with the colder air bottled up in ND and northern MN.
Warm and moist air continues to advect into the Lower Mississippi Valley today with temperatures as of 2 PM CST in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s. The aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary is expected to begin moving slowly south as a cold front towards Southeast Missouri this evening and into the Mid-South overnight into Monday.
102 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 A cold front will make its way across the Missouri Ozarks through early this evening. The front will clear the area by late evening ushering in a noticeably cooler airmass. A much cooler and more typical autumn day is in store for Monday.
Aside from a small chance of lake-effect snow showers over Vilas county tonight, dry conditions are anticipated through Monday as Canadian high pressure dominates.
THis is associated with the forcing along and ahead of the upper trough lifting across northwest MN at this time. Some indications of at least some remaining cloud cover over the eastern cwa into the evening before clearing takes place late as the high pressure system drops into Minnesota. The period will commence with fairly flat flow aloft across the central CONUS while a sharp longwave trough moves into the northern Rockies. A secondary trough axis aloft will swing down from Canada in advance of the longwave trough and help nudge the surface system eastward.