Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
729 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING A RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THANKS TO CONTINUED RIDGING AT MID LEVELS, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING TNITE, WILL ADD SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINLY HOLD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MOST PART APPEARS TO BE STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH MONTANA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY.
1241 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
624 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
/ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ KSHV RADAR SHOWING SCT TSTMS ACROSS OUR EXTREME NRN SECTIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE SERN U. BUT THE RIDGE IS FCST TO DRIFT OVHD AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL BE GREATER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMES IN FROM CALIF. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER.
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
1022 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A RATHER ROBUST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS.
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO BY TOMORROW MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH SOME WITH A MORE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST QPF (RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH CROWLEY'S RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (NORTH OF ROUTE 13) BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ON WEDNESAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
752 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES BUT REMAINS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 MARINE A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT OTHERWISE WE WILL JUST HAVE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
950 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FRIES TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA-MARYLAND BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH BULK OF RAIN CONTAINED TO THE RIDGES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ Cold front continues to sag east and south from the eastern Permian Basin to near the Davis Mountains.
700 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA NEAR CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE. BUT LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY INTO MORE DIURNAL-TYPE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON. MODELS PLACE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE LOW PRESS AREA. AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN.
IN ADDITION, ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO REFLECT THE HIGH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
1253 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
More stable conditions are settling south across the Permian Basin this evening in the wake of a cold front and earlier convection. There is still some convection over the Big Bend region, and more convection moving off the higher terrain into southeast New Mexico where instability persists behind the front. /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ Cold front continues to sag east and south from the eastern Permian Basin to near the Davis Mountains.
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RESIDES OVER THE STATE TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FRIES TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA-MARYLAND BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH BULK OF RAIN CONTAINED TO THE RIDGES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT IN IOWA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH.
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FRIES TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA-MARYLAND BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH BULK OF RAIN CONTAINED TO THE RIDGES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
1049 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT IN IOWA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH.
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
REX BLOCKING OFF THE LEFT COAST AND A STUBBORN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS KEEPING WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BE FORCING THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT AND THEN COLORADO TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL BE INVADING FORM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. WITH A HINT OF A WARM FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN UTAH.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL MT WITH COLD FRONT INTO OK. MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 250J/KG DEVELOPS AHEAD OF TROUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES SOUTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE A A LULL OR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
604 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE.
P-TYPE COULD END UP BEING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN END TO THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE IF THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP AND HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM. DONT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
619 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTH FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.
732 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1050 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTH FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.
537 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 314 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ THE 21Z SURFACE MAP AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE STRONG SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FROM EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN END TO THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE IF THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP AND HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM. DONT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
LOOKS LIKE THIS CU FIELD IS LOW TOPPED UNDER THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
For the rest of the periods we should see on again, off again precip chances as the parent trough slowly translates east northeast over the week with several associated weaker waves running out ahead of it.
THUS AM NOT CONFIDENT TO GO WITH THE HIGHER MOS POPS TONIGHT. WENT WITH THE WARMER OF THE MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
605 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTH FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.
01 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure east of the Florida Peninsula with moderate southeasterly flow in place across our region.
ANOTHER WONDERFUL DAY (IF YOU PREFER WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS) FOR EARLY MARCH. AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NW MEXICO. A STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THIS CYCLONE. WHICH WILL REDUCE LONG WAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAKE WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. 77 /ISSUED 314 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ THE 21Z SURFACE MAP AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE STRONG SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FROM EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOUTH BREEZES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO INTO TX. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE FEEDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY.
532 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
FAVORED AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THE TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
810 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016 ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
849 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 A QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 76 57 76 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 75 54 75 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 75 53 75 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 10.
A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH THE LOW CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT.
/ISSUED 240 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/ FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS COURTESY OF THIS FLOW REGIME WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARMER. MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
559 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AT 20Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
620 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. CHARACTERIZED BY AN INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A POWERFUL UPPER LOW QUICKLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT THE COAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION ON LARGE UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. DESPITE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
920 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
Low temperatures Wednesday morning again well above freezing and well above normal, ranging from mid 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. Strong upper low, currently unusually far south in Sonora, Mexico, will dig even further south into central Mexico on Wednesday. Dry and milder Wednesday, with variable amounts of high clouds allowing afternoon temperatures to recover to the lower 60s. SW KS will be dry Wednesday night, as a strong closed low buries itself unusually far south into central Mexico. Needless to say, forcing for any precipitation from this cyclone will be far removed from Kansas, so along with neighboring WFOs, pop grids were reduced or eliminated.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. COLDER TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER SRN SONORA MEXICO WITH A VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. IT WILL BE COLDER WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMAL COLDER VALLEYS OF EASTERN SANTA CURZ.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS. WHILE A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER MEXICO.
617 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS TODAY. DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. PHASING WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES.
THE UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING ITS EQUATORWARD TRAJECTORY. A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE ON WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH THE LOW NOW CUT OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
COLDER TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FADE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM ARIZONA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. COLDER TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER SRN SONORA MEXICO WITH A VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. IT WILL BE COLDER WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMAL COLDER VALLEYS OF EASTERN SANTA CURZ.
/ISSUED 341 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ Several rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will affect mainly the southeast part of the forecast area over the next few days as a slow moving upper low digs south across northern Mexico before eventually lifting northeast across Texas into Arkansas by the end of the week into the first part of the weekend. Low rain chances will continue through the weekend as another upper low moves more quickly across the area.
Late this afternoon, a swath of showers and thunderstorms originating over Oklahoma will continue to lift north and east within an embedded upper trough across the CWA. Another limiting factor for any precip across a decent portion of north central Kansas is the cold front/dryline centered between Nemaha, through Alma and Council Grove. West of this line, drier air in the lower levels continues to undercut the precip shield, eroding the western flank of the storm cluster. Latest guidance continues to trend the upper low and optimal moisture further east, with the northern stream wave carrying cooler and drier air behind the sfc boundary into northeast Kansas. Cloud cover remains likely however with cooler temps in the lower 60s expected.
A cold front will move into the area late tonight with ceilings lowering to MVFR. /issued 218 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ Strong upper level low pressure area centered in northwest Mexico will slowly shift southeast into central Mexico through Wednesday night.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN PIVOTING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. RIDGING HAS SHARPENED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NESTLED SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS AIDED IN SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE ENGULFED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS HOSTILE TO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS (PULASKI AND SAND KEY). TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL MUCH FARTHER GIVEN THE FETCH OFF OF THE MILD ATLANTIC WATERS.
648 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
/issued 340 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Currently, we have southwest flow aloft with a large/powerful upper level low moving southeast into central Mexico. This boundary could potentially serve as a focus for thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon and evening with continued heating, and lift from the upper level low moving into the area. Farther west and south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing northwest of Del Rio, into the lower Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau as lift from the upper level low begins to spread northeast into our region.
557 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. CHARACTERIZED BY AN INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A POWERFUL UPPER LOW QUICKLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT THE COAST.
BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF OR HOW THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP. IN ITS WAKE, A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NW AND W OK WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WEST TX. THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY START ITS TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD THUR, MOVING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AROUND FRI 00Z.
644 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 THE TWIN CITIES HAD THEIR FIRST OFFICIAL 70 DEGREE DAY THIS AFTN AS STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DEVELOPED. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THIS AFTN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS WC/SW/SC MN. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A DEEP UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER NRN IL ON WED BUT ENOUGH DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE NRN CWA FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER MILD DAY. WENT WARMER IN NRN IL FOR WED WHERE SOME SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
952 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTH FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.
719 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE.