Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high pressure will shift east some tonight, allowing warm air advection to develop over western South Dakota. High pressure over the eastern Dakotas will produce another cold night with lows dropping into the 20s.
/issued 927 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ A cold front is currently pushing through the Mid-South at this hour. These clouds have stunted cooling, and are therefore are running quite a bit warmer than the current forecast. Expect lows to bottom out in the low to mid 40s areawide by Monday morning. /issued 346 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a few clouds moving into eastern Arkansas as a weak cold front pushes through the area.
Yesterday's cold front will also begin to move back northward as a warm front before stalling tonight north of the US 82 corridor. Across the southwest half of the forecast area, south of the front, daytime temperatures should be near or slightly warmer than yesterday. North of the front, temperatures may be slightly cooler, mainly due to the increased cloud cover. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the warm front in Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas.
A cold front will be moving through the area over the next few hours. A cold front continues to slide through the area this morning with mid level cigs and light shra to accompany at TYS/TRI, thus such was indicated in tafs. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 44 66 52 75 / 0 10 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 42 63 48 71 / 0 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 62 41 63 47 69 / 0 20 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 35 59 44 64 / 0 10 0 20 20.
With us between the departing low and the building area of high pressure breezy/gusty conditions will likely return by the afternoon but not to the extent as yesterday. Mid level trough remains over the region today with ample amounts of moisture from 700-850mb along with very cool air aloft. The cool air will also limit our afternoon temperatures to the low to mid 50s. Canadian high pressure will be just east of the region to start things off Tuesday morning. Precipitation may be ongoing across portions of western KY Tuesday morning north of a warm front, but it appears it will struggle to move into central KY during the daytime as it tries to overcome dry air in the low levels and subsidence associated with the high pressure to our east.
1053 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 (This evening through Monday) The cold front continues to move southeast with northeast/east winds expected at the surface overnight and into Monday. Low levels are not as humid as can be seen in the forecast sounds as well as currently seeing the lower 30s dewpoints moving into northern Oklahoma behind the front.
Upper level ridge over Western Washington will break down tonight as an upper level trough approaches the coast and remain there through much of this week.
448 AM MDT Mon May 11 2020 High pressure will move out of the northern plains today as a low pressure system lifts out of the Great Basin. Moisture will ride over the top of the lingering cooler airmass over Montana overnight, spreading into northeast Montana by the early morning hours on Tuesday.
East to southeast surface winds will help keep the Denver Cyclone in place. Much cooler temperatures are expected over the far northeast plains. Frost could come into play as well late tonight, with potential overnight mins in the low 30s. Think the models are overdoing this mixing and it will be cooler. Only chance for precipitation Tuesday looks to be drizzle with the low clouds across the northeast plains.
Morning update includes a 20% chance east of I-95 for this activity through early afternoon, then clearing is anticipated as high pressure builds south. N/NE winds will increase to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at coastal terminals this afternoon as high pressure builds down the peninsula.
406 AM PDT Mon May 11 2020 Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures are expected this week. Infrared satellite shows a wrapped upper low centered off the northwestern California Coast. The upper low will shift move to the northeast off the coast of Oregon and Washington by tonight. A cold front will move inland over NorCal today, with increasing mid level clouds across the area this afternoon.
These storms and easterly winds are finally expected to diminish this evening as a low pressure system moves through central Idaho tonight.
933 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. Rain showers will continue throughout the day, mostly east and north of Pittsburgh, as a low pressure system crosses Lake Erie and advances east. Cold advection will support a mix/change to snow but no appreciable accumulation off the higher ridges is expected given lingering warmth in the boundary layer. With overcast sky, lingering precipitation, and cold air advection temperatures overnight will drop into the low-30s; Freeze Warning has been issued across the region.
A cold front continues to drift to the south-southeast this morning, with winds increasing to around 10 mph. Additionally, northerly flow will advect cooler temps, with afternoon highs only rising into the lower to 60s. This will limit the radiational cooling overnight, however temperatures will still drop into the lower to mid 40s.
NW flow persists aloft between a trough over the eastern CONUS and ridging acrs the western third of the US. The gradual onset of low level moisture will help to modify overnight temperatures, with lows tonight about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this morning, ranging from the middle 50s cntl LA to the lower and middle 60s along I-10, and near 70 along the coast.
Unseasonably cool weather will continue over most of the region today, especially across northern and central Oklahoma where high temperatures will average 20 to 25 degrees cooler than average. The frontal boundary that ushered in the cooler and drier air yesterday extended west to east across northern Texas, just south of the Red River. Mid-upper level trough will progress from the Rockies tonight, increasing deeper warm/moist advection resulting in widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms.
While most of the high-res model guidance keeps this activity north of the forecast area, it is possible that these showers and thunderstorms could affect Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Southeast Arkansas by 11/18z but should remain north of all TAF sites. Yesterday's cold front will also begin to move back northward as a warm front before stalling tonight north of the US 82 corridor. Across the southwest half of the forecast area, south of the front, daytime temperatures should be near or slightly warmer than yesterday. North of the front, temperatures may be slightly cooler, mainly due to the increased cloud cover. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the warm front in Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas.
615 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020 A large area of mid-level cloudiness held across southern Minnesota overnight and led to temperatures holding above freezing.
Will maintain the low rain chance late tonight in southern TN and the northwest corner of AL, although much of this may be virga for our area.
Temperatures have climbed above freezing this morning, and extensive cloud cover has prevented frost formation. Some places have dipped below freezing while others remain in the mid to upper 30s.
856 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing into the area today bringing showers followed by a cold front this evening.
357 AM PDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast will bring stronger onshore flow across southern California early this week. A warming trend will follow for the end of the week as high pressure develops near the West Coast.
Today Through Tuesday Night After the dry cold front dropped south through the state on Sun. with a SFC warm front lifting north into the state.
Weak troughiness near the west coast is already bringing the return of a drier westerly component to our flow this morning.
523 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. Rain showers will change to, or mix with snow in areas today as No major changes were needed for the predawn update as showers have redeveloped with the advance of low pressure off the Lakes. Cold advection will support a mix/change to snow but no appreciable accumulation off the higher ridges is expected given lingering warmth in the boundary layer.
403 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020 A large area of mid-level cloudiness held across southern Minnesota overnight and led to temperatures holding above freezing.
The best CAPE values will be in New Mexico, but there are values around 1000 J/kg ahead of the lee cyclone, so there is a small chance at an isolated severe storm this afternoon, but the issues is if there will have to be enough lift to overcome the CIN. As mentioned previously, there will be snow falling over the higher elevations.
Dry cold front moved through overnight and has been serving to reinforce the dry air over the region. /GG/ Prior discussion below: Another nice day is in store across the region as broad troughing aloft transitions to zonal flow by tomorrow morning. High pressure will be at the surface just to our north, leaving northerly winds in place for much of today. Another cool night will be in store in the east but with moisture slowly returning, lows in the west will start to inch back into the lower to middle 50s.
633 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing into the area today bringing showers followed by a cold front this evening.
Early this morning, an area of stratus remains across portions of southern MN, northwest IA, and far southeast SD, holding temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previously anticipated.
Gusty winds develop over northwest Nevada this afternoon in advance of a cold front.
The highest probabilities for higher totals will exist over southern and northern zones with better moisture and dynamics in place through the period. Also, chances for isolated thunder will be higher over Carbon/Albany counties as instability will be higher with the warmer temperatures. Significantly warmer for Tuesday as broad/flat upper-level ridging evolves over the area. Models differ quite a bit with exactly how much moisture will be drawn northward, with the NAM showing dew points in the low 40s and the GFS showing some potential for low 50s.
546 AM MDT Mon May 11 2020 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Dakota, with stationary front backed up against the Rockies. For tonight into Tuesday, stationary front begins to move east- northeast as warm front. Broad area of isentropic lift sets up ahead of warm front with precipitation becoming more widespread. though near surface temperatures slightly above freezing will result in some pockets of rain. Lack of seeding may result in a brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Ptype transitions to all rain Tuesday morning/early afternoon as warm front moves into western South Dakota. With warm front into western South Dakota, narrow axis of instability sets up across northeast Wyoming. Flow becomes zonal for the remainder of the week with transition back to warmer/spring-like pattern across the Northern Plains.
Despite the moderate northeast breezes, we do not think cooler and drier air will filter into the islands this afternoon. The forecast calls for slim to nil rain chances through the afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.
/issued 338 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020/ Quiet weather conditions expected through the week as recent period of Eastern CONUS troughing transitions to more zonal flow during the week. Remnant surface boundary just south of the Peninsula expected to weaken over the next few days while another cold front drops southeast later today bringing drier air mass into the region through mid week.
We should see at least some clearing in the afternoon, but it is possible that we will end up short of our forecast highs which are currently in the low to mid 50s.
The upper pattern this morning is highlighted by broad longwave troughing while at the surface a cold front continues to advect across the TN Valley. Moving on, deep nwly flow will prevail through the day with said gusting to persist as PGFs amplify a bit thanks to the intruding surface anticyclone. Temperatures today will be around 8-10 degrees cooler than yesterday for highs, with Monday night lows being falling a few degrees as well (relative to this morning).
By this afternoon scattered -TSRA will develop over the higher terrain and confidence was high enough to include TEMPO groups at CNM, PEQ, and FST. Morning clouds should clear from west to east with strong heating occurring by early afternoon over the higher terrain.
There remains plenty of uncertainty as we move into Wed in how quickly the warm front mixes north and scours out the unseasonably cool air.
/28/ Another nice day is in store across the region as broad troughing aloft transitions to zonal flow by tomorrow morning. High pressure will be at the surface just to our north, leaving northerly winds in place for much of today. Another cool night will be in store in the east but with moisture slowly returning, lows in the west will start to inch back into the lower to middle 50s.
Weak trough in the area so winds will turn onshore this afternoon. High pressure will keep things on the quiet side into Tuesday. This will set up a weak trough across srn WI for the afternoon/evening hours. Medium Expecting any lingering cu/sc to dissipate with trough exiting and overall wind flow looking weak. Medium Mid level cyclonic shear zone proggd across the area with weak high pressure in control.
precipitation chances largely driven/dictated by small amplitude waves progressing eastward from the Rockies onto the High Plains.
441 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Mid/upper level low/trough over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS lifts out to the northeast, leaving our area under the influence of rising heights through the short term. This high will shift eastward with time, allowing increasing return flow moisture north of a warm frontal zone which stretches southeast from low pressure out over the panhandles of TX/OK. This warm front will gradually begin to move northward and lift overspreading moisture across the Commonwealth, increasing the threat just of rain as early as dawn to our southwest over the Tennessee Valley Region, and portions of eastern Kentucky by late in the period. The east should see several hours of partly to mostly clear sky conditions with generally higher type clouds, making frost more prevalents across those areas, especially within the cooler valley locations.
133 PM MDT Mon May 11 2020 Water vapor shows rather flat upper ridge over the Rockies with west-northwest flow through the northern plains. At the surface, ridge extends over the eastern Dakotas with stationary front along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Band of precip currently developing over northeast WY into the Black Hills will continue to broaden tonight with stationary front beginning to lift northeast as a warm front. Precip should transition to more liquid by Tuesday afternoon as warm front pushes through and temps warm into the 50s southwest and 40s northeast.
An upper low pressure system offshore has placed the region under a moist southerly flow aloft, with a band of mid to high level clouds spreading over most of the forecast area. For today, the center of the upper low will move closer to the coast, while the start of a series of impulses in the flow will impact the region this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler this afternoon from cloud cover and moisture advection into the region.
High pressure is shifting east into the north Gulf, reestablishing southeast winds.
1226 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 A large area of mid-level cloudiness held across southern Minnesota overnight and led to temperatures holding above freezing.
However, water vapor trends suggest the existing PV filament coupled to the upper jet over the Midwest will under go deepening during the next several hours as additional PV is entrained from the closed low over northwest Ontario. Raised temps a bit, but kept them mostly below freezing.
High pressure will move out of the northern plains today as a low pressure system lifts out of the Great Basin. Moisture will ride over the top of the lingering cooler airmass over Montana overnight, spreading into northeast Montana by the early morning hours on Tuesday.
Little to no accumulation is expected, though the higher elevations of the Little Rockies could see an inch or two of snow.
This ridge has also been helping hold the precip to the SW at bay. As the ridge builds SE overnight, the LLJ is progd to increase across the southern half of the CWA. Tilly The pattern aloft that provided the Midwest with unseasonably cool temperatures over the past week will continue to break down over next few days as the western US ridge shifts eastward and flattens, and the eastern US trough moves into the western Atlantic.
Temperatures should be falling below the freezing mark again. Pretty good setup for some frost to accompany these sub-freezing temperatures, too, across the east.
Dewpoints were generally in the lower to mid 30s. This areas have the best chance of seeing some clearing based on satellite trends as well as lighter winds and thus a better chance for the temperatures to drop to near freezing early this morning. A transition to a more zonal flow aloft and associated return of Gulf moisture will pave the way for much warmer and unsettled weather late this week into the weekend.
Otherwise warmer temperatures will spread east over the plains.
The low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s in the northwest to mid 30s near the lake shore. Weak high pressure will build into the region Tuesday morning bringing dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
1140 AM MDT Mon May 11 2020 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Dakota, with stationary front backed up against the Rockies. For tonight into Tuesday, stationary front begins to move east- northeast as warm front. Broad area of isentropic lift sets up ahead of warm front with precipitation becoming more widespread. though near surface temperatures slightly above freezing will result in some pockets of rain. Lack of seeding may result in a brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Ptype transitions to all rain Tuesday morning/early afternoon as warm front moves into western South Dakota. With warm front into western South Dakota, narrow axis of instability sets up across northeast Wyoming. Flow becomes zonal for the remainder of the week with transition back to warmer/spring-like pattern across the Northern Plains.
132 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. Rain showers will continue throughout the day, mostly east and north of Pittsburgh, as a low pressure system crosses Lake Erie and advances east. Cold advection will support a mix/change to snow but no appreciable accumulation off the higher ridges is expected given lingering warmth in the boundary layer. With overcast sky, lingering precipitation, and cold air advection temperatures overnight will drop into the low-30s; Freeze Warning has been issued across the region.
This is consistent with forecast soundings remaining dry the rest of the afternoon before saturating in the low levels by the early evening at Emporia, then mid to late evening toward Topeka. Some WAA, although weak, will allow temperatures to become slightly warmer than today in the 50s tomorrow afternoon. With less rainfall compared to the rest of the area, northeast KS is expected to reach the upper 50s while other parts of the CWA will likely stay in the low to mid 50s.
Winds will increase across much of southeast Oregon ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight.
236 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Pennsylvania will remain under the influence of a deep upper trough through mid-week.
327 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Dry high pressure will prevail into the weekend. A reinforcing dry cold front will push through this evening with another area of high pressure building over the area late.
Temps have stopped their climb where clouds have moved in and are stuck in the lower 60s from the TN/MS line northward. Cool high pressure will remain anchored across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile a series of upper level disturbances and a northward moving warm front will result in rain across mainly the northern half of the Mid-South for the next 36 hours with mainly dry conditions across north MS.
Overcast skies will linger across the with another day of cooler below normal temperatures.
The first weak upper trough will cause storms to develop this afternoon and move east into the Permian Basin later this evening.
A large upper level low pressure system in the Eastern Pacific will influence our weather across the Northern Rockies through much of this week as several short waves of energy will be ejected into our region.
1042 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020 Sunny and cool conditions prevail across the Mid-South this morning as high pressure covers the region. It will be a bit cooler today with a light Northerly breeze.
The cold front is now to the east of the area along the Eastern Seaboard. The upper pattern this morning is highlighted by broad longwave troughing while at the surface a cold front continues to advect across the TN Valley. Moving on, deep nwly flow will prevail through the day with said gusting to persist as PGFs amplify a bit thanks to the intruding surface anticyclone. Temperatures today will be around 8-10 degrees cooler than yesterday for highs, with Monday night lows being falling a few degrees as well (relative to this morning).
Then, late evening and overnight, shower chances increase as isentropic upglide continues and weak disturbances move east of the upper ridge axis across the Central Rockies. Highs slightly warmer in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
253 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. 850 MB temperatures are cold enough to support mainly snow, though a marginally warm boundary layer indicates some rain could mix in outside of the higher terrain. With overcast sky, lingering precipitation, and cold air advection temperatures overnight will drop into the low-30s; Freeze Warning has been issued across the region.
A weak upper level trough will pass to the north tonight with some increase in cloud cover late tonight. Another weak trough is forecast to move through the area tomorrow.
/issued 1042 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020/ Sunny and cool conditions prevail across the Mid-South this morning as high pressure covers the region. It will be a bit cooler today with a light Northerly breeze.
The trough axis will be just west of the forecast area by 18Z and will continue to move east through tonight into Tuesday. As the event unfolds/progresses and we develop more and more storms, motion will likely become more dominated by the cold pool as well as orientation to the low-level flow.
A low pressure trough will develop in Montana and move east in response to an upper low over the northwest US that will start moving inland tonight and Tuesday. Increasing southeast winds to 30 mph are expected across western North Dakota Tuesday as teh trough moves east. Highs for Tuesday will be in the mid 40s southwest where the chances for rain will be greatest, to the lower to mid 50s north and east.
327 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 Tonight and Tuesday: Mid level trough over the northeast portion of the country has begun pulling away which will allow a broad scale ridge to build in from the west Tuesday.
UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBILITY RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE Short Term (Tonight - Tuesday): High pressure will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula tonight into Tuesday from the north.
likely helping keep the area safe from freezing temperatures overnight as indicated by some of the cooler guidance in spots.