Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Abundant tropical moisture continues to pool across South Texas through the short term as mid level low pressure persists across northern Mexico and West Texas. A strong 500mb low drops out of Canada, reaching the Desert SW by Tuesday afternoon, with the resulting trough stretching northeast across the central to northeastern CONUS. This trough will help pull the mid-level disturbances from northern Mexico and West Texas northeastward late Tuesday, providing a boost to convective development by Tuesday afternoon across Deep South Texas, especially where the seabreeze can help enhance lift between I69C and I69E.
Temperatures will be a tad warmer than last night but still be cool in the lower 60s. The dome of high pressure that has been locked over the southeast the past few days will slowly shift eastward to start the work week due to a deepening cyclone digging in across the Rockies. As a result, the low level flow becomes more southeasterly, which will allow for better moisture return. A deep amplifying upper low/trough axis will be dropping into the SW states going into the middle of the week. A cold front will stretch swd from the sfc wave into the wrn/cntrl Gulf, with sct showers/tstms developing along and ahead of the approaching boundary. Slightly cooler/drier will then spread into the area in the wake of the frontal passage, as afternoon highs by Sat trend more in the lower 80s.
(Today and tonight) Breezy and hot today as low level thermal ridge continues to be pushed south ahead of advancing cold front across Kansas.
Where the front moves through earlier in the day across the north, cooler highs are anticipated. As a result, highs will range from the low 60s north of Highway 20 to the low 80s in southwest Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a weakening cold front Labor Day, impacting locations mainly north and west of Pittsburgh.
Another warm day on Monday but not quite as warm as a strong cold front will begin its plunge south across the CWA during the afternoon. Unseasonably cold conditions will continue Tuesday with rain and snow continuing as an strong upper low drops into western Colorado. Sub-freezing temperatures likely over much of the area Tuesday morning with temps not warming much during the day. Very cold again Tuesday night but it now appears slower movement by the upper low will keep cloudiness over the area and limit cooling so have had to raise mins some, though still a hard freeze.
Coverage of showers and storms is forecast to increase through the afternoon hours across the area as ridging aloft weakens and northeasterly low level flow increases. High temperatures will be much lower today behind the frontal boundary and due to the onshore flow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across interior southeast Georgia and coastal areas, and the lower 90s across interior northeast Florida. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will continue to meander southward down the FL Peninsula Monday as low level ridging builds to our north, then the front should dissipate through Tuesday.
254 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 SFC/LL high pressure currently over the area expected to stay put into late week, as ridging builds aloft. Tight closed upper low over the high plains late Fri expected to open and make a fast move eastward, with trough axis passing the mid-state Sun night. Weak frontal boundary that is just south early Fri will be drawn well north Sat/Sat night, then will drop south once again late Sun as upper trough passes. Building upper ridge will keep temps above normal really into the early weekend.
Went with NBM guidance with no change for temperatures in the lower to mid 90s today, slightly below normal lows for tonight along with near zero PoPs.
253 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Temperatures at 2am were still in the lower to middle 70s aided by southerly winds around 10 mph. Not much to push the front to the south today therefore expecting a repeat of yesterday, perhaps 1-2deg warmer with highs in the lower 90s. We went a few degrees warmer than the NBM which has been too cool recently as well as very little cloud cover expected during the day. The main message for mid to late week is that the forecast is looking potentially warmer and slightly drier than originally thought. But it still looks cooler than these current 90 degree days. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening with the highest chances along and northwest of Interstate 44.
444 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the north through Tuesday. A weak coastal trough will move onshore tonight and weaken Monday.
A strong cold front will cross the region Monday, ushering in a much cooler airmass for midweek. An elongated mid level ridge remains centered to the west of the forecast area this evening, allowing for a dry northwesterly flow aloft.
Meanwhile a cold front will push southward into central Kansas late this afternoon.
149 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Dry conditions will continue today with high pressure ridging into region. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through daybreak. Upper level trough over the region will lift northeastward today with heights rising aloft. If moisture increases earlier it may be slightly cooler.
Surface temperatures were in the lower 60s in most spots, though a few of the cooler valley locations have dropped down into the upper 50s. Otherwise, we expect to see a little bit of river valley fog once again with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. For today, with high pressure to our east, we'll become more established in a steady south-southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft. A cold front to the north of the region is expected to dip southward. Lows look to drop into the lower 60s across southern KY with mid 60s across southern IN and far northern KY. By Tuesday morning, a quasi-stationary boundary will stretch across central IL/IN/OH with high pressure over the eastern seaboard and a deepening trough with closed 5H low over the desert SW.
237 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020 08z surface analysis had low over eastern ID with a cold front extending from it into western NE. Lead jet streak moves into the Midwest today as secondary jet streak carves out anomalously strong upper trough over the central CONUS tonight into Tuesday, eventually turning into upper low over the four corners area. Jets will couple tonight over the CWA allowing low pressure over eastern ID to deepen as it moves southeast into CO by Tuesday. Inverted trough feature over CWA will focus 800-600mb frontogenesis, syncing up with best upper level divergence. Heavy snow on natural surfaces expected for the higher Black Hills.
It will not take much time for temperatures to fall, after highs only in the lower 50s. Tuesday should also feature highs in the lower 50s, but the north winds should be a tad lower (10-15 mph, maybe 10-20 mph).
An upper low will form from a digging trough over the Rockies early this week as an anticyclonic wave break occurs and the parent trough lifts out and leaves it behind.
Temperatures will be cooler north of the front however, strong CAA not expected to develop until tonight. Tonight, a upper level trough will dig into the western High Plains. This will force the cold front to strengthen and CAA will increase north of the front ushering in much colder air. Daytime highs will be in the 50s across northern Missouri and in the lower 80s in central Missouri. These showers and storms on Tuesday will finally force the cold front south of the CWA by Tuesday night. By Tuesday night, a upper level low will develop in the base of the upper level trough across Colorado. The model track of this upper low has changed significantly over the past 24 hours.
Cooler air pushes into the area and lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. All of the models have an upper level low develop in the southwest CONUS on Tuesday.
The cool Canadian high pressure set to bring us the unseasonably cool week is beginning to nose into the northern plains with skies clearing in the north. This is in response to a rather strong early-season cold front that will serve to bring a colder than average air mass into the region. Near freezing temperatures are expected Monday night for northern and western portions of the Devils Lake Basin, with middle to upper 30s elsewhere.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 65 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 63 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 87 63 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 60 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 30.
121 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight. Some mid level energy will work across the southern Great Lakes tonight as an associated weak cold front drops down toward our area from the northwest. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low to mid 60s with perhaps upper 60s across our far northwest where winds should stay up a bit more overnight. Temperatures will vary from the lower 80s in the northwest to upper 80s in the southeast on Monday.
421 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 500mb analysis shows a trough along the southeast coast of the US. High pressure is centered in the west. High pressure ridge should begin to build eastward today across the western portions of the CWA, while the trough holds along the coast through the remainder of the short term period. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will continue to control the sensible weather through the short term. The ridge is situated from NE to SW. Through the short term, most of the weather will be situated along the coastal trough. Unfortunately, the cooler and somewhat drier weather will give way to a more seasonal pattern with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal and higher humidity values.
The surface features high pressure ridging extending from the southern Appalachians northeast into the western Atlantic. The main story today will continue to be dry weather conditions and increasingly warmer temperatures. H50 heights will gradually increase today ahead of a deepening trough across southern Canada. Highs today will rise into the lower to upper 80s. h50 ridge begins to move northeast along the spine of the Appalachians with moderate southeasterly flow through the column.
At the surface the region will be between high pressure to the north and a stalled frontal boundary across central FL this period. Coastal troughing will also be expected due to the onshore flow pattern over the waters. At 500mb a short wave trough will slowly lift north across forecast area through this period. The combination of diurnal heating, and the moist onshore flow along with instability from upper trough will provide convective chances inland this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. For the coastal region, these factors coupled with the coastal troughing will provide for convective chances both day and night.
225 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Cool high pressure centered over eastern Canada will extend southwestward into North Carolina through Tuesday. This high will weaken and shift further offshore Tuesday night. Strong subsidence and drying is evident in water vapor and the 00Z GSO raob this evening in the wake of the upper trough earlier today. The upper-level trough will quickly eject northeast early on Labor Day, then heights build aloft throughout the day as upper-level high pressure approaches from the east. This will help keep central NC dry one more day, and the approaching ridge will raise highs a few degrees, with most areas reaching the mid- 80s. Going into a little more detail, weak low pressure will form off the Georgia coast along a stationary front near the immediate coastline.
1051 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will remain along the New England coast through mid week.
641 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure continues over the area this morning. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the southeast U. with an upper trough over the northern U. The ridge over the west will provide a westerly flow over Arkansas today. The upper flow becomes southwest over Arkansas as an upper trough settles into the northern Plains and a closed low develops near the Four Corners region. A cold front will slowly move south through Kansas and Missouri today and into northwest Arkansas Tuesday night.
Surface ridging over the Appalachians will remain in place with continued hot and dry conditions over the area today. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Dry and mostly clear conditions are on tap for the holiday as surface ridging over the Appalachians remains in control.
A deep upper trof will drop from southwest Canada into the central Rockies through Tuesday morning, bringing a rapid transition from intense summer heat to so over portions of Colorado.
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A deep longwave trough that longitudinally spans much of Canada will be the main driver of weather for the first half of the week. Winds have already switched to northerly, and continuous cold air advection ahead of a broad arctic high pressure will usher cooler and drier air into the region over the next 24 hours.
226 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Widespread smoke and near record heat to continue this Labor Day across the Central California Interior as high pressure aloft prevails. Trough of low pressure will impact the region Tuesday, lowering afternoon high temperatures several degrees and bringing continued dangerous fire weather conditions.
548 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 (Today and tonight) Breezy and hot today as low level thermal ridge continues to be pushed south ahead of advancing cold front across Kansas.
417 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Today and tonight: Dry and mostly clear conditions are on tap for the holiday as surface ridging over the Appalachians remains in control.
/Issued 421 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ 500mb analysis shows a trough along the southeast coast of the US. High pressure is centered in the west. High pressure ridge should begin to build eastward today across the western portions of the CWA, while the trough holds along the coast through the remainder of the short term period. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will continue to control the sensible weather through the short term. The ridge is situated from NE to SW. Through the short term, most of the weather will be situated along the coastal trough. Unfortunately, the cooler and somewhat drier weather will give way to a more seasonal pattern with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal and higher humidity values.
723 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will remain along the New England coast through mid week.
654 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A cold front extending from MI southwest to just south of the MO IA border will continue moving southward to near the I-70 corridor by 18Z, then shift slightly northward tonight. Highs today will not be as warm across northeast MO and west central IL behind the cold front. High temperatures will also be cooler across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to low level cold air advection behind the cold front along with cloud cover hindering daytime heating.
Rain will spread over the region today as an upper trough digs into the plains.
The approaching system will increase southerly winds today, helping to bring in slightly warmer air from northern Mexico.
453 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A cold front extending from MI southwest to just south of the MO IA border will continue moving southward to near the I-70 corridor by 18Z, then shift slightly northward tonight. Highs today will not be as warm across northeast MO and west central IL behind the cold front. High temperatures will also be cooler across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to low level cold air advection behind the cold front along with cloud cover hindering daytime heating.
High pressure builds into the area, and a warming trend begins. - Fogleman Overall dry conditions are expected through the rest of the upcoming work week and weekend as an amplified upper level pattern with ridging centered off the west coast and troughing across the central and US and Canada gradually de-amplifies.
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough axis reaching southeast into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The mid-upper low centered near Havana has started to phase with the long wave axis. An inverted trough in the low level easterlies has not moved much over the past 12 hours, and remains over the Straits of Florida. Showers and storms are relegated along and east of the low level trough axis, and much of the island chain has been rain free, save for the Upper Keys. Evidence from the available guidance suggests the low level trough axis should slide northwest over the next six hours.
Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures for the middle of the week.
SFC/LL high pressure currently over the area expected to stay put into late week, as ridging builds aloft. Tight closed upper low over the high plains late Fri expected to open and make a fast move eastward, with trough axis passing the mid-state Sun night. Weak frontal boundary that is just south early Fri will be drawn well north Sat/Sat night, then will drop south once again late Sun as upper trough passes. Building upper ridge will keep temps above normal really into the early weekend.
Dangerous conditions due to heat exposure are likely in the lower elevations today with an Excessive Heat Warning remaining in effect.
741 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the north through Tuesday. A weak coastal trough will move onshore tonight and weaken Monday.
526 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just off to our northwest, across the Lower Great Lakes today.
/issued 312 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Abundant tropical moisture continues to pool across South Texas through the short term as mid level low pressure persists across northern Mexico and West Texas. A strong 500mb low drops out of Canada, reaching the Desert SW by Tuesday afternoon, with the resulting trough stretching northeast across the central to northeastern CONUS. This trough will help pull the mid-level disturbances from northern Mexico and West Texas northeastward late Tuesday, providing a boost to convective development by Tuesday afternoon across Deep South Texas, especially where the seabreeze can help enhance lift between I69C and I69E.
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 he upper ridge is retreating westward to CA as a strong upper trough swings out of Canada today and quickly moves down across ID and UT tonight.
/DL/ Today and tonight: Dry and mostly clear conditions are on tap for the holiday as surface ridging over the Appalachians remains in control.
534 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020 08z surface analysis had low over eastern ID with a cold front extending from it into western NE. Lead jet streak moves into the Midwest today as secondary jet streak carves out anomalously strong upper trough over the central CONUS tonight into Tuesday, eventually turning into upper low over the four corners area. Jets will couple tonight over the CWA allowing low pressure over eastern ID to deepen as it moves southeast into CO by Tuesday. Inverted trough feature over CWA will focus 800-600mb frontogenesis, syncing up with best upper level divergence. Heavy snow on natural surfaces expected for the higher Black Hills.
By the predawn of Tuesday morning, warm ridging over the western states will be a memory, given deep troughing oriented SSW-NNE from south central Canada to west of the Divide. Upper ridging off of the east coast will maintain dry weather into Tuesday night for the Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms will generally taper off after peak heating and as ridging building aloft commences.
Thereafter, a weather system will bring cooler weather by the middle of the week.
929 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the north through Tuesday. A weak coastal trough will linger through Tuesday.
A deep upper trof will drop from southwest Canada into the central Rockies through Tuesday morning, bringing a rapid transition from intense summer heat to snow over portions of Colorado.
/issued 405 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ he upper ridge is retreating westward to CA as a strong upper trough swings out of Canada today and quickly moves down across ID and UT tonight.
Temperatures at 2am were still in the lower to middle 70s aided by southerly winds around 10 mph. Not much to push the front to the south today therefore expecting a repeat of yesterday, perhaps 1-2deg warmer with highs in the lower 90s. We went a few degrees warmer than the NBM which has been too cool recently as well as very little cloud cover expected during the day. The main message for mid to late week is that the forecast is looking potentially warmer and slightly drier than originally thought. But it still looks cooler than these current 90 degree days. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening with the highest chances along and northwest of Interstate 44.
409 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A deep longwave trough that longitudinally spans much of Canada will be the main driver of weather for the first half of the week. Winds have already switched to northerly, and continuous cold air advection ahead of a broad arctic high pressure will usher cooler and drier air into the region over the next 24 hours.
705 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just off to our northwest, across the Lower Great Lakes today.
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A deep longwave trough that longitudinally spans much of Canada will be the main driver of weather for the first half of the week. Winds have already switched to northerly, and continuous cold air advection ahead of a broad arctic high pressure will usher cooler and drier air into the region over the next 24 hours.
A strong mid/upper trough evolving into a closed low will dive into the Rockies during this period forcing amplification of longwave ridging over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will set up from West TX and OK through the northern OH Valley oriented parallel to the WSW mid/upper flow with high pressure moving to the Mid Atlantic coast. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60's with upper 80's to low 90's for highs Tues. Normal highs/lows for Sept 8 are 86/65 at CHA, 85/63 at TYS, and 82/58 at TRI, so these lows will be around normal, but the highs will be 4 to 5 degrees above normal.
Convection is still expected to wane with the loss of daytime heating, which will coincide with the onset of ridge building aloft. Isolated to scattered showers may persist over night in response to aforementioned ridge building helping to the lift the sfc boundary northward.
245 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 WV imagery shows the upper ridge now lies along the west coast, resulting in balmy temperatures and hazardous fire weather conditions there, courtesy of a trough just leaving Canada and digging down into our nrn Rockies. Closer to home, despite the ridge displacement west, afternoon highs are still set to top out a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's.
This rain area will pivot from northwest to southeast orientation to southwest to northeast into Tuesday as the responsible upper level low pressure trough digs south into the Central Rockies. Rain will spread over the region today as an upper trough digs into the plains.
Gradually clearing skies tonight and cold with freezing temperatures over most of the west and portions of central North Dakota. Low temperatures should fall to 32 or below for most areas except in the central James river Valley and the the southern Missouri River Valley, which may hover a few degrees above freezing tonight. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s.
VFR will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure remains centered near the southern Appalachians. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 90 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 90 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 90 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 20 10.