Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
401 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Latest surface analysis continue to show the ridge axis from northeast CONUS to northeast Gulf and frontal zone from southern Michigan to west Tennessee to central Texas. Upper air analysis showed a weak ridge from Baja California to Florida and small cyclonic circulation over southwest Louisiana and northwest Gulf. Southwest flow was present from Southwest CONUS to Great Lakes and positively tilted trough axis from Minnesota to Southern California.
241 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Welcome rainfall is occurring today and expected to continue into tomorrow as the last summer cold front approaches the TN valley. The main mitigating factors with the thunderstorm threats are the weak lift and the low amount of instability after sunset. In addition, the hi-res models may be under-playing the highly saturated environment with PWATs close to 2. As alluded to earlier, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms are possible due to elevated instability and lift from the passing trough. Once shower activity has slowly ended on Sunday night, cloud cover should also recede with temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 60s and possibly some fog formation.
321 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Quiet evening expected for the area as weak surface ridging exits to the east. Clouds, along with 850 mb warm advection really ramping up towards Sunday morning, will keep low temperatures fairly mild in the low to mid 50s. Deepening low pressure centered across southern Saskatchewan will place the region between systems with a tightening pressure gradient.
Upper trough energy will move into western Arkansas around daybreak Sunday resulting in decent area of convection across the state. Lowered highs just a tad, mainly up north, as observations have been consistently running 2-3 degrees cooler than what our hourly forecasts were indicating for northern locales.
1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Last vestiges of the upper low will traverse the region today, spreading clouds overhead and bringing some instability showers to areas along and north of I-94. Showers are anticipated to develop again, with the highest likelihood over northern WI. During the evening, anticipate the clouds and showers to fizzle away, leaving mainly clear skies as high pressure builds in. High pressure begins to shift east on Sunday allowing for some return flow. Warm advection will lead to slightly warmer temperatures, but some of that may also manifest as cloudiness.
A cold front will approach from the west during the TAF cycle with showers currently back to the west across Middle Tennessee and North Alabama.
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A cold front over eastern Iowa and northern Missouri will push across the state overnight bringing drier conditions for the remainder of the weekend.
122 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A warm front will lift north of the region early today. slow moving cold front will follow on Sunday.
However, slightly increased high temperatures across the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain Foothills given current temperatures in the lower 70s. Rain developing across the Lower Columbia Basin this morning will move over Southeast Washington and Northeast Oregon by this afternoon. The East Slopes of the Cascades and the Basin will then become rainshadowed, and the highest precipitation chances will focus over the Northern Blue Mountains this evening. Clouds will lower and thicken today as low pressure approaches from the northwest.
408 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A cold front will move slowly to Central Ohio tonight, continuing the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms.
112 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Early this morning, the upper low was sliding slowly eastward along the MN/Canada border with the associated vorticity max progressing through northern MN, sparking additional showery activity there. A ridge axis will push in this afternoon and will be followed by low level warm air advection in southwesterly flow tonight.
234 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Afternoon convection beginning to develop across portions of East Texas this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front. High temperatures on Sunday to range from the upper 80s across portions of Southwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma to the lower to middle 90s across Deep East Texas and portions of North Louisiana.
High The northern portion of high pressure will build into southern Wisconsin tonight, then slide southeastward a bit on Sunday. Should see skies eventually turn mostly clear this evening into tonight as the high builds in and daytime heating is lost. Seems like just enough wind in the lower levels to keep widespread fog from forming.
After collaboration with surrounding offices, will again opt to hold off on any headlines for now since the lowest humidity values are in a spatially limited area near the South Dakota border. There are still differences in the models regarding thermal profiles with this system, but there is general agreement in higher chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures. Saturday afternoon, a cold front extended from low pressure in central Saskatchewan southwest into western Montana.
An upper trough will move through the plains tonight. If by chance the low clouds would form Sunday morning, they should be fairly quick to dissipate and turn to fair wx cu in the late morning. Upper air analysis last evening showed nearly zonal flow over Texas with a strongly tilted trough over the southwestern US. The subtropical ridge was centered over Florida. The weak mid to upper level flow will continue during this period as the trough over the west coast cuts off into a low and the subtropical ridge builds slowly across the Gulf.
This was occurring in a region of weak large scale ascent, likely associated with a weak mid level trough over coastal LA. Although that system is expected to weaken, another trough will approach from the northwest, maintaining weak synoptic scale lift overnight.
109 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a cold front on Sunday night.
/issued 1058 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ A cold front currently stretches from Malden, Missouri to Pine Bluff, Arkansas. A cold front stretches from just West of Paris, Tennessee.
225 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will move through central New York and northeast Pennsylvania tonight ahead of a warm front this evening. A cold front will then slowly progress through the region tonight and Sunday, with additional showers and storms likely at times.
1202 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Cold front currently lingering over eastern Iowa should push into the region this afternoon bringing drier conditions. Lingering clouds should keep temps cooler than previously expected. An upper-level low and associated troffing will still lie to our west for much of the day, along with a surface cold front. Notably cooler and less humid air will filter into the region tonight behind the cold front, with low temperatures tonight expected to fall into the 50s over most of the forecast area.
302 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A cold front will push east of the region overnight.
1257 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Low pressure over the Northland this morning will move east northeast today with brief ridging moving in behind. Coverage this afternoon will be lower than this morning and most of the high resolution models indicate coverage and intensity of the precipitation will diminish after 12Z. More clouds than sun will occur for much of the day as cooler air aloft and cyclonic flow will not be supportive of widespread clearing. As high pressure moves through the Northland tonight, it will bring an end to any linger showers and cause skies to clear. After overnight lows in the forties, highs will rebound into the lower to mid seventies on Sunday. A cold front will move through the forecast area Sunday night, while an upper level short wave trof clips northern Minnesota.
After 8 pm this evening, activity this afternoon should diminish, and the main attention for additional storms will switch to the High Plains which may congeal and dive southeast into a large MCS/squall line. A cold front may bring cooler conditions and higher rain chances by the end of the week.
High temperatures in the low to maybe mid 60s still on track for this area as current readings are still in the 50s as of 18z. Minor adjustments made to sky cover as the back edge of overcast area associated with departing upper low gradually advects eastward. Primary challenge for the rest of tonight and today will be departure of some light rain showers over northwest Minnesota associated with an upper low/trough over wrn Ontario/northern MN. An upstream short wave ridge will move move over the Dakotas today and bring dry weather to the eastern Dakotas and RRV, with some lingering showers through the morning in the far northeast. This will bring much warmer overnight lows to western zones tonight, generally in the mid 50s. about 10 deg warmer than last night.
yielding clear to partly cloudy skies with low temps in the lower 70s inland.
However, thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain out west, then move northeast, if not eastward, and affect some area terminals.
As of early this afternoon, clouds were increasing from the west as moist zonal flow begins to overtake the Northern Rockies and subsequently break down the ridge over the region. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday with breezy west to northwest winds across the area.
Trough of low pressure across southeast Montana will move east today. High pressure currently situated over central ND will move into Minnesota today as low pressure deepens over the Canadian and northern Rockies in response to a strong upper level jet nosing into the northwest U. Quiet still tonight but we will see increasing clouds along a cold front that pushes into the northwest by early Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will be about 5-7 degrees cooler than today in the northwest and 5-7 degrees warmer over the James River Valley. An area of showers is expected to develop along the left exit region of the strong jet ushering in the cold front on Sunday.
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A cold front currently stretches from Dyersburg to Tunica. The trof will help push the cold front out of the CWA. Expect chances for rain to come to an end by Sunday evening as the upper trof moves east of the CWA.
Upper level trough over the West Coast is generating strong winds aloft ahead of the system and over the Rockies.
235 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Upper level trof moving across Northeast Colorado this afternoon with a line of storms extending across much of far Eastern Colorado. Behind the trof, decent subsidence and drying developing as noted on layered QG fields. Unsettled weather will return by mid week along with cooler temperatures.
Precipitation is co-located with the low, with only a handful of light showers over western Lake Superior. Most of the uncertainty revolves around the location and intensity of an upper low that will close off over the northern plains or in south central canada.
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will extend southwestward across the Carolinas through tonight.
Another hot and dry day across the area with a cold front located back to the west near the Mississippi River. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates an upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes region. 6 inch range with the higher values across the Plateau. Widespread cloud cover and precipitation is expected tomorrow ahead of the advancing cold front.
134 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today.
558 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a cold front on Sunday night.
However, upper level trough will not push thru the area until Sun night, and will keep a lingering chance of shwrs into Sun night also. Lows tonight will be muggy again, with highs on Sun mainly only in the lower 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows will drop into the lower 60s by Sun night. Ridging influences sfc/aloft will be the primary weather player thru the work week. Passage of a cold front will bring drier air and rapid improvement toward the end of the taf period.
318 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A slow moving cold front across the Central Lakes will move across the forecast area tonight. High pressure will build across the area Sunday night. Cold front just into NW Indiana. Cooler and drier air move into the area from the West Sunday night as high pressure builds over the area.
540 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Mid-level trough of low pressure/steep low level lapse rates producing an extensive field of cumulus/stratocumulus across the region. Clouds will diminish from west to east this evening as the trough exits east of the area and as a weak ridge builds in from the Plains. a fairly chilly night in store with lows ranging from the middle/upper 40s across central WI to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere across the forecast area. Warm air advection and some 850mb moisture transport pushes into the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks across south central Canada. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms moves into areas mainly along and north of I-90 Sunday night as 850mb moisture transport/mid- level instability increases ahead of an approaching cold front dropping out of northern MN/WI.
However, upper level trough will not push thru the area until Sun night, and will keep a lingering chance of shwrs into Sun night also. Lows tonight will be muggy again, with highs on Sun mainly only in the lower 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows will drop into the lower 60s by Sun night. Ridging influences sfc/aloft will be the primary weather player thru the work week. A cold front will move very slowly across the mid state overnight.
Synoptic Setup: A ridge lies over eastern Montana and Wyoming. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon as the ridge aloft collapses to the southeast.
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 After a round of morning fog, skies have become mostly sunny across the area with highs reaching into the low 80s for most locations. Convection has formed across the high plains of Colorado and far western Kansas, and is slowly making its way eastward. On Sunday, not expecting a repeat of the fog given increasing southerly winds through the period, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer today in the middle 80s. Models are in smilier agreement with the main jet stream carrying embedded upper waves across the far northern CONUS while an upper ridge dominates the southern plains and a cut off low rotates off the CA coast.
351 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Low pressure noted on visible satellite circulating over northern Lake Superior this afternoon. No real surface cold front to speak of with this system, but the thermal trough aloft, currently supporting stratus/stratocu over MN/IA/WI this afternoon will pivot through the area during the day sunday. Fast quasi-zonal upper-level flow will settle in for early week as the burgeoning subtropical ridge over the southern US expands north against substantial NE Pac jet energy spreading into the northern tier.
557 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): H5 ridge continues to build aloft as active pattern remains well to the north. Sunday will be similar to today, as the H5 ridge dominates the region.
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Dry conditions this morning will see increasing clouds ahead of an upper level trough moving out the Great Lakes region.
345 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A cold front approaches from the west tonight with showers and working in from the west, mainly after midnight. A wave of low pressure may develop along the front to the southwest of New England Sunday night and travel northeastward.
200 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Mid-level trough of low pressure/steep low level lapse rates producing an extensive field of cumulus/stratocumulus across the region. Clouds will diminish from west to east this evening as the trough exits east of the area and as a weak ridge builds in from the Plains. a fairly chilly night in store with lows ranging from the middle/upper 40s across central WI to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere across the forecast area. Warm air advection and some 850mb moisture transport pushes into the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks across south central Canada. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms moves into areas mainly along and north of I-90 Sunday night as 850mb moisture transport/mid- level instability increases ahead of an approaching cold front dropping out of northern MN/WI.
152 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A moist airmass will remain in place ahead of a cold front, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.
This could make roads and especially bridges/overpasses slick as temps are well below freezing out there this morning. Low levels remain on the dry side so main affect will be scattered snow showers over the higher terrain.
A strong low pressure system will bring widespread rain and snow to the region along with areas of strong winds.
533 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Persistent stratus will continue to blanket much of the forecast area today, in the wake of slowly departing upper low. Lack of mid level/ice-bearing moisture layer evident on satellite and in forecast soundings, so drizzle/freezing drizzle should be the dominant precip type. The lack of stratus and light winds in our west should allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s tonight, while eastern areas hold in the mid-upper 20s under the lingering stratus. As a longwave trough approaches the plains on Monday GFS/ECM are in fair agreement on strength and timing of the H5 low and associated surface features.
402 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017 Flow aloft will increase out of the northwest as a ridge moves in from the west. Clearing skies over the plains and gusty northwest surface winds mixing down will allow for temperatures to be slightly warmer than yesterday. The gusty winds in the high country and foothills will be decreasing slightly this morning as gradients relax, though gusts to 35 mph may still occur through early afternoon. Flow aloft will then turn west-southwesterly and increase tonight as a jet streak helps dig a trough along the west coast. The initial moisture will push into the mountain this evening as the ridge axis is over eastern Colorado, with very weak QG lift in southwesterly flow at mountain top.
429 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017 Water vapor shows weak w/sw flow aloft across the nrn plains with trof moving onto the west coast. S/SW winds increase tonight across nern WY into the Blkhls as upper ridge axis shifts overhead.
Around sunset, the lower levels will decouple and wind gusts will subside.
453 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 A cold front was sweeping through the county warning area this morning having made it as far south as New Iberia in south central Louisiana. This cold front will exit our area by sunrise. Temperatures were a few degrees cooler than yesterday morning with dewpoints noticeably lower where the front had passed. looking for the upper level intense low pressure system to move across Texas.
Otherwise, most of our passes will see issues due to snow this morning, along with the high mountains and the Mount Shasta area, with strong winds along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and in the Ashland to Medford portion of the Rogue Valley.
Warmer moist air being wrapped back into the low and quickly cooling mid levels should be enough to keep at least a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE present through the middle of the day. By the evening, we'll be on the back side of the low with cooling throughout the atmospheric column, and any precip by that point will be rain showers. A tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low will bring in breezy north winds after sunset.
/Issued 409 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ As the main upper level low pressure system continues to move east along the Red River, moisture wrapped around the system will continue to bring showers across the region. With current temperatures still well above freezing, precipitation types have consistency reflected just rain across the Panhandles. Once we go into the afternoon hours on Sunday, winds will begin to diminish slowly throughout the day as an upper level ridge axis moves east towards the Panhandles region. With some good downsloping off the high terrain to our west, high temperatures will rebound to lower and perhaps even a few mid 70s for parts of the southern TX Panhandle by Monday.
Otherwise, expect rain to develop over the region as deepening low pressure emerges from the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Forecast confidence remains hampered as model depictions of the cutoff low pressure set to dig toward the Upper Ohio Region, have again deviated from previous days solutions with a southward track of the center. This could be due to dynamic cooling depictions as the low deepens.
After this storm passes by mid-week, we will remain in fairly cool air with 500mb heights staying quite low as the longwave trough remains in place across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS.
Thereafter, bands of moderate to locally heavy -RA/SHRA will shift into the region as a low pressure system moves across the Tennessee Valley.
518 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Another round of showers and thunderstorms today as an upper low over Texas tracks eastward across Alabama this evening. This is a very dynamic system and widespread showers and elevated thunderstorms expected on the north and west side of the upper low. Temperatures near the center of the 500mb upper low will be near -25 celsius, and steep lapse rates could produce some large hail across the southeast counties in the more vigorous convection, with small hail as far north as I-20. Cooler and more stable air will overspread all of central Alabama this evening. Scattered to numerous showers will continue across central Alabama tonight as the upper low center moves across the area.
Impressive upper low off the WA/OR coast will remain nearly stationary today. Precipitation along a front associated with the low will drive inland and reach SE Oregon this morning and SW Idaho this afternoon. The higher elevations of SW Idaho are expected to receive 2-5 inches. The upper low off the WA/OR coast will move S-SE off the Washington coast tonight through Monday.
900 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 For mid morning update have added patchy freezing drizzle through much of the area as some area webcams are showing a little glaze, and a few obbs have reported a little ice. The freezing drizzle should be over and have removed any mention of that.
The freezing drizzle should be over and have removed any mention of that.
Stacked system is currently centered over SW Arkansas with the warm front now north of Middle TN. Shower activity with the warm front has cleared the area as well. The upper low will track east across central MS, AL, and GA through 00z. The southern portion which will be closer to the low will have the highest rain chances through 00z.
524 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 A upper level trough is moving across the Red River Valley this morning and will continue to move east across southern Arkansas today.
With upper level ridging, there will be a significant amount of subsidence behind the departing trough, so the chance of precip will be zilch today and tonight. Another mild day is in store, but it will feel a bit cooler due to the increased wind speed compared to yesterday.
Gradient progs remain marginal tho as there is no upper wave to initiate a significant deepening of the leeside pressure trough. Further east across the plains, added in light snow for the Pine Ridge area Monday morning as convergence along a sfc boundary across this region will combine with weak isentropic lift.
Strengthening upper level low is located over the Red River OK/TX border region this morning. However, as the aforementioned upper low tracks eastward, rainfall within the deformation zone will increase 1-3 deg lat to the left of the track. The upper low should move roughly along i-20, across northern AL and nrn Ga.