Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Continued hot temperatures, though somewhat cooler at Rawlins in the wake of the slow moving cold front. As the cold front progresses eastward across our counties, and with increasing low and mid level moisture, expect to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the evening, most numerous across our northern counties.
Overnight lows should fall into the low to middle 70s.
No changes were needed for the eve update as a few showers have developed with a weak cold front moving across the region. An omega-type block sets up across North America, with the Upper Ohio Valley region underneath northerly flow on the western periphery of a large closed low centered across the northeast. Despite the presence of northerly flow, the strength of the upstream ridge is strong enough such that each day will feature near- or above-average temperature with plenty of June/July sun.
Low temperatures were largely kept the same with a 1 to 3-degree reduction for the next 3 hours due to this cooler trend. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 73 88 71 / 50 30 40 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 85 71 86 69 / 70 60 50 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 71 86 71 85 69 / 70 60 60 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 80 66 / 40 60 60 70 70.
710 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Weak high pressure, surface and aloft, remains in control of aviation weather in SE Mi. A near repeat performance of conditions is expected during the afternoon only with high pressure centered slightly farther east into Monday evening. Large upper level low over southern Quebec will continue to slowly settle south, with upper level northerly confluent flow over the Central Great Lakes dominating over the next several days, with PW values holding mostly under 1 inch.
533 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 19Z UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis continued to indicate broad westerly flow aloft over the CWA with short wave trough moving east across central Kansas, with much of CWA under the effects of subsidence behind it. At the surface flow aloft has become southeasterly with convergent area/trough once again setting up in western CWA. An upper-level deep trough moves out of the Great Basin and over the High Plains during the middle of the week.
208 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Significant cooling continues today with a slight chance of late day showers over the higher Sierra Nevada.
No changes were needed for the eve update as showers south of I 70 which developed with a weak cold front, will continue to sag southward and diminish. An omega-type block sets up across North America, with the Upper Ohio Valley region underneath northerly flow on the western periphery of a large closed low centered across the northeast. Despite the presence of northerly flow, the strength of the upstream ridge is strong enough such that each day will feature near- or above-average temperature with plenty of June/July sun.
500 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Latest upper level analysis has ridging across the central CONUS with large trof across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is located across south central South Dakota with winds mostly northwest now across the forecast area. Temperatures at 1 pm are in the 70s behind the low/cold front, and in the low 90s ahead. As the upper low slides a bit further east-northeast toward southwest MT, another round of showers and storms are expected, especially over western portions of the area, late Monday and Monday night.
620 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Cold front will push through southern Pa early this evening, accompanied by an isolated shower in spots. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley. There are continued indications that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
/22/ This afternoon-Monday: Mid level ridging has done a good job at suppressing convection over the area this afternoon, though some slight chances will continue into the early evening as outflows from storms over central LA may still swing into the area and initiate a few cells. While the mid level ridge will shift a little to the east Monday, warm temperatures aloft should continue to suppress convective potential with only isolated thunderstorms expected.
/issued 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Broad H5 ridging is taking control over the area, with similar high pressure over the Gulf. Interaction with southern Plains high pressure should help keep a tighter gradient in place, and conditions will be breezy to windy southeast to south along the coast on Monday.
1055 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the Susquehanna Valley. There are continued indications that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
A ridge will continue to slowly move westward across the area through Monday night. As the ridge moves into the area Monday, a short wave trough will also be making its way to our north resulting in some vorticity in the 850 and 700 mb levels. Temperatures tomorrow will be range within the lower to upper 90s across the area with the warmest temperatures out west.
With dew points in the lower 70s, this will push heat indices well into the mid-upper 90s. This might be the highest values we've seen so far this warm season.
High pressure supported another hot and muggy day across all of west central and southwest Florida today, although not as hot as yesterday with some isolated storms again being observed during the afternoon hours. On Monday little change is expected as high pressure remains in control with isolated to scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms again developing during the afternoon with the best coverage expected over interior locations and across southwest Florida. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight through Monday with light southwest to west winds and slight seas with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component redeveloping along the coast Monday afternoon.
747 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Cold front will push through southern Pa early this evening, accompanied by an isolated shower in spots. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley. There are continued indications that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
532 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A closed low over eastern Oregon will be the main weather-maker over the region through the short term. Elsewhere, expect isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Gusty winds will continue over the higher terrain. The closed low will move across Idaho on Monday with a strong southwest gradient continuing over the forecast area. As this system gets closer, cooler temperatures are expected, especially across the north. The associated cold front will move through the area Monday evening with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the front, with the best focus across the northern half of the forecast area. Cooler temperatures are expected Monday night with diminishing winds.
Removed the low 15 percent pops for the rest of the evening. Prevailing southerlies tonight through Monday will continue to reinforce a fairly warm air mass across the high plains of western Kansas.
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A mid/upper trough remained situated across the Northern Intermountain region today while southwest mid/upper flow was observed downstream across the Central Plains states. Abundant low level moisture/periods of clouds may help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in some areas although most locations will remain above climate normals for late June.
830 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and cross the region tonight.
1056 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the low 70s. An upper level low pressure system will linger over New England early this week with a frontal boundary draped across The Midlands and CSRA. However, guidance has trended on the high side and therefore have stayed below the guidance for highs/lows each day. High temperatures should in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
701 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Aviation High pressure will bring mostly fair weather through this week. The upper pattern across North America this week shows upper lows over the NE and NW CONUS with a narrow ridge in between. One complicating factor is a small upper low that gets trapped under the upper ridge and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to southern Lake Michigan and far SW Lower Michigan on Monday afternoon and evening.
947 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
515 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Elsewhere across the western portion of the area, trimmed back POPs behind the weak cold front and confined wx type mention to only a few showers per radar trends and weak mid level lapse rates. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley. There are continued indications that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
820 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 High pressure supported another hot and muggy day across all of west central and southwest Florida today, although not as hot as yesterday with some isolated storms again being observed during the afternoon hours. On Monday little change is expected as high pressure remains in control with isolated to scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms again developing during the afternoon with the best coverage expected over interior locations and across southwest Florida. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight through Monday with light east southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component redeveloping along the coast Monday afternoon.
20Z water vapor imagery shows broad ridging over the lower MS River valley and a trough slowly working its way through the Pacific Northwest. After temperatures top out in the 90s area-wide today, we only fall back to the low to mid 70s by tomorrow morning. Have dropped temps a few degrees for the eastern half of the area due to the cloud cover with highs in the upper 80s, while the western half still sees a good shot at the low 90s.
Along with the gusty winds, expect much cooler temperatures on Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase after mid-week, especially over the higher terrain. While we will see some decrease in speeds overnight, expect winds to remain elevated across the higher terrain. Another round of widespread, strong southwest winds will occur on Monday as a dry cold front sweeps through the state.
Perhaps bigger threat for tonight will be what atmosphere does as it realizes another short wave trough ejecting out of Rockies later today.
1043 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extends across South and Central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the lower level ridging being aligned close by over South and Central Florida, there is abundant CAPE and only a sliver of low level inhibition. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain across South and Central Florida. Expect overnight lows to struggle to get into the lower 80s. Ridging across Florida will maintain east to southeast breezes.
804 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. With the debris cloudiness overnight low temperatures will generally be in the low 70s. An upper level low pressure system will linger over New England early this week with a frontal boundary draped across The Midlands and CSRA. However, guidance has trended on the high side and therefore have stayed below the guidance for highs/lows each day. High temperatures should in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
755 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A weak cold front over the Ohio Valley today drops into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday.
718 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
Favored corridor will remain within the higher precipitable water plume which extends through SE OK and NW AR.
403 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A cold front will sag slowly southward today as high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada. The front will attempt to return northward during the middle of the week as an upper low churns over New England. A backdoor cold front may drop into the region from the northeast late this week into the weekend. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated today as a cold front drops southward into central and eventually southern Virginia. There may be just enough moisture, instability, and lift aided by terrain circulations to pop a shower or two over the southern Shenandoah Valley/near the central Virginia Blue Ridge from mid to late afternoon, but confidence in anything more than that is very low due to drying north/northwesterly flow.
There will be chances of precipitation throughout the near and short term with a increase in chances on Tuesday due to an impending upper level low. Ridging aloft has built in across central Indiana as the remnant frontal boundary has shifted to the southwest of the forecast area as of mid evening. CAMs continue to show some potential in developing an axis of convection late tonight over central Kentucky late tonight that may build back as far northwest as the lower Wabash Valley. Latest model runs have depicted the deepening of a mid level closed low approaching the Indiana border on Tuesday. This could amplify the low level jet, providing the shear needed for convective organization.
Continued hot temperatures, though somewhat cooler at Rawlins in the wake of the slow moving cold front. As the cold front progresses eastward across our counties, and with increasing low and mid level moisture, expect to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the evening, most numerous across our northern counties. Cooler in the wake of the cold front. Cooler overnight temperatures compared to the previous few nights. The upper-level trough axis and associated cold frontal passage should yield the best chance for a fairly widespread precipitation event during the next several days across the CWA.
Tonight Through Tuesday An upper ridge continues over the central U. with a trough over the east coast and an upper low over the northwest. A weak upper trough will move out of Texas tonight and through Arkansas. The upper low over the northwest will deepen and move slowly east through Tuesday. These storms should dissipate this evening, but regeneration is anticipated as the upper trough moves into the state late tonight into Monday morning.
334 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 This morning the sub tropical ridge is still centered over the Gulf with a deep upper low over ID. This low has a trough extending southward to Mexico.
Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to near 104 degrees with the highest heat index values being located near the Oklahoma border and across north central Kansas (around the I-70 corridor).
There will be chances of precipitation throughout the near and short term with a increase in chances on Tuesday due to an upper level low forming just to the SW. Warm air advection continues as the back side of the ridge is overhead, bringing in muggy conditions from the south. The high centered over the Gulf also looks to regress back over Texas and the south/central plains throughout the period. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, with best chances on Tuesday while the low sits just to the W to SW of the forecast area.
RH will drop into the teen across the area with values in the low teens along and west of I-27. Surface winds will be dry and out of the west tonight as a result of the upper low/trough over the western US pushing eastward towards the central US. An upper-level trough over western CONUS has the forecast area in a SW flow regime, which will continue to bring dry air into the area through at least mid-week. An upper high that is currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move west over southern Texas and northern Mexico. This will most likely bring monsoonal moisture into the area, dropping temperatures into the low to mid 90s and giving a slightly better chance of precipitation through the weekend.
An upper trough will swing off the Rockies and into the northern plains tomorrow brining a rather oblong low across western KS and into south central and central KS. Much drier air will move in with this feature, allowing for temps to soar into in the low 100s across portions of central and south central KS tomorrow.
Low temperatures were largely kept the same with a 1 to 3-degree reduction for the next 3 hours due to this cooler trend.
High pressure will slowly build into the Great Lakes today. Most of the activity will be confined to the North Country and Lake Ontario as an upper low rotates over New England. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s across western NY to the upper 70s east of Lake Ontario. Diurnally-driven showers and storms are expected again Tuesday as the upper low remains over New England. Slightly cooler with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A mid/upper trough remained situated across the Northern Intermountain region today while southwest mid/upper flow was observed downstream across the Central Plains states. Abundant low level moisture/periods of clouds may help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in some areas although most locations will remain above climate normals for late June. The main pv anomaly lifting through the mid/upper trough over the Northern Intermountain/Northern Rockies region is progged to lift rapidly north and east into the Northern Plains as we move into the middle of the week leaving a diffuse trailing frontal boundary meandering across the Central Plains region. A mid/upper ridge will build back across the Rockies as we move through the period. This will eventually lead to weak northerly flow as the ridge axis remains west of our area.
Blocking pattern aloft will keep muggy conditions and chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast again today. A compact low, that is forecast to slowly lift NNE from the lower Mississippi Valley over the course of the day, is shown to help prolong precip chances past sunset and into the overnight hours. Have kept the highest chances primarily before 06z before gradually lowering.
As a result of this cloud cover, we will likely stay a few degrees cooler. This provides some uncertainty on temperatures for Tuesday, but the consensus is that it will mix out quickly enough for the entire area to still reach the 90s and portions of Kansas to reach the low 100s. Heat index values may also reach the low 100s near HIghway 81 where dewpoints remain in the low 70s Tuesday afternoon.
226 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the Susquehanna Valley. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
In the wake of this system, focus again turns back west but not for precip, but the intensification of the low level thermal ridge.
High pressure, both surface and aloft, extending across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will once again suppress cloud coverage and convection today into tonight with only a few isolated thunderstorms developing.
Light east wind returns by afternoon with another round of scattered shallow cumulus occuring as high pressure drifts slightly farther east into Monday evening. Large upper level low over southern Quebec will continue to slowly settle south, with upper level northerly confluent flow over the Central Great Lakes dominating over the next several days, with PW values holding mostly under 1 inch.
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A mid level disturbances will move east and southeast across the Carolinas this morning as a weak surface cold front sink southward and into the area.
359 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
Despite a slightly cooler temperature forecast this afternoon, high humidity will keep us quite soupy and this will be most apparent during the overnight hours where lows in the 70s will be common.
The closed low will continue to shift northeast across the state and into Montana by tomorrow.
Breezy and gusty conditions are expected on today over most areas as the low level jet remains in place. Thanks to a high pressure system building across the north central part of the Gulf of Mexico, dry weather conditions hold through the period.
1126 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the Susquehanna Valley. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
208 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the low 70s. An upper level low pressure system will linger over New England early this week with a frontal boundary draped across The Midlands and CSRA. However, guidance has trended on the high side and therefore have stayed below the guidance for highs/lows each day. High temperatures should in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
This low lingers in New England and acts as steering source for another low pressure system out of the northern Great Lakes which sinks south reinforced by strong ridging out west.
317 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 This morning at 0730Z a mid level low was moving southeast across eastern Oklahoma while an upper level trough was dropping southward into Nevada. Today the clouds, especially across the east will keep temperatures a little cooler, but still in the upper 80s. Tuesday night will bring the next chance for convection as a energy ejects northeast into the Plains as the upper trough pivots northeast into the northern Plains. Storms are expected to develop along a cold front across Nebraska and northeast of a warm front across north central Kansas.
- Very warm through the week Latest ensembles and medium range guidance continues to suggest it will be very warm through the week as the upper ridge builds in and h8 temps slowly moderate. High temps will reach the mid to upper 80s daily and h8 temps/500 hgts suggest high temps will likely reach the lower 90s by the holiday weekend. A high pressure ridge will result in minimal wind speeds and wave heights below two feet early this week.