Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Satellite shows the jet to the south with ridging and subsidence over the region. Overnight lows will be on the cooler side due to radiational cooling and will drop into the 20s and low 30s on the plains and into the teens across higher elevations and mountain valleys. Downsloping off the foothills will aid in warming highs on Friday into the mid 60s across the plains and 40s and 50s in the high country. 500 mb heights will continue to rise slightly Friday night with a surface lee trough remaining, resulting in warmer low temperatures overnight with gusty west winds prevailing in the foothills.
The temperature profile will cool enough for the rain to change to light snow/flurries across the highest elevations. A dusting is possible across the highest peaks. Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 50 31 56 / 70 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 47 29 54 / 80 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 46 28 53 / 60 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 44 25 52 / 80 0 0 0.
527 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Broad low and mid level westerly flow will bring warmer air through the region later tonight and Friday. With mainly dry air through much of the atmosphere, we see some potential for cooler than advertised temperatures tonight, so lowered mins 2 to 3 degrees central and east, before the warm front moves through. Tonight will be quiet and much warmer than last night as cloud cover moves in and southwesterly winds and warm air advection kick in.
500 mb heights will continue to rise slightly Friday night with a surface lee trough remaining, resulting in warmer low temperatures overnight with gusty west winds prevailing in the foothills.
527 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Rain showers will continue to override the leading edge of a cold front across the region over the next several hours. with the cold front filtering across SE TX/C LA this afternoon. By Friday, the upper air pattern will be dominated with a large scale long wave trough across the Central and Eastern U.
Light winds and clear skies linger longer in NW MN so thought most guidance values were a bit high considering the low dew pts. So went on the lower side of guidance for lows. though some spots may stay near freezing depending on the thickness of the clouds.
258 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 An upper level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, allowing for a mild but windy day over the region.
318 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 A cold front is steadily trekking south through the region and is now approaching the Rio Grande basin where temperatures have warmed into the 70s. This weekend looks dry and warmer as zonal 500 mb flow sets in over the forecast area.
RMcQueen Fog has spread southward from the southern Panhandle while temperatures continue near or slightly below freezing. We have added fog and freezing fog for this evening to areas on the Caprock. /issued 151 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ It has been another cold and damp day across the forecast area as cold advection persists while weak mid level ascent from the remnants of a short wave upper trough over New Mexico moves very slowly to the east and southeast.
/issued 318 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ A cold front is steadily trekking south through the region and is now approaching the Rio Grande basin where temperatures have warmed into the 70s. This weekend looks dry and warmer as zonal 500 mb flow sets in over the forecast area.
220 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Northwest flow with a series of trough and ridges is still planned throughout the forecast.
335 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend under the influence of high pressure. The forecast area remains caught in a quiescent weather pattern as a west coast ridge dominates to our west and a Hudson Bay low dominates to our east placing us under dry and stable northwesterly flow.
433 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region tonight and on Friday as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
219 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region tonight and on Friday as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
1040 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 06Z TAF CYCLE Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in br/fg/fzfg will obscure mts across the southeast two thirds of NM through 08/14Z or until the low level inversion breaks. High temperatures will trend warmer with readings closer to normal for most of the area.
1249 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 A strong cold front will move through the region before sunrise.
948 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Update to included mention of freezing fog in parts of the GDP Mtns overnight.
905 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Temperatures are going to be challenging tonight, with min temperatures northwest near zero and southwest in the lower 20s. Elsewhere, low/mid clouds, or lack of them, will determine the lows. Broad low and mid level westerly flow will bring warmer air through the region later tonight and Friday. With mainly dry air through much of the atmosphere, we see some potential for cooler than advertised temperatures tonight, so lowered mins 2 to 3 degrees central and east, before the warm front moves through. Tonight will be quiet and much warmer than last night as cloud cover moves in and southwesterly winds and warm air advection kick in.
Only difference will be in low temperatures as it should be generally a degree or two warmer than last night. This is a result of a high pressure system off the coast of northern California and an area of low pressure off the Baja coast causing a Rex Block pattern.
Shallow over-running has some light mostly stratiform and elevated MVFR based convection ahead of mid-level trough digging into the area.
/Issued 918 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ Skies continued to clear out across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening behind the upper level trof axis exiting off to the east. high pressure was filtering into the region with winds continuing to subside over the region.
Accumulation will be light with measurable amounts along and north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. 500mb trough axis will cross the region overnight. Even in the ridges, where orographic process are expanding the moisture, the inversions remain generally below 3000ft, just enough height to brush the growth zone. Winds will slowly take on a more northerly direction as the morning progresses, and high pressure will drift into the Upper Midwest. The focus for snow showers will remain over the I-80 corridor where inversion levels are the highest. With the winds shifting to the north, the ridges will no longer have an optimal wind direction to enhance the orographic lift. This shows up very nicely in the forecast soundings as inversion levels in the ridges remain below 3000ft. Dry conditions will continue with building high pressure through this weekend.
Accumulation will be light with measurable amounts along and north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. Winds will slowly take on a more northerly direction as the morning progresses, and high pressure will drift into the Upper Midwest. The focus for snow showers will remain over the I-80 corridor where inversion levels are the highest. With the winds shifting to the north, the ridges will no longer have an optimal wind direction to enhance the orographic lift. This shows up very nicely in the forecast soundings as inversion levels in the ridges remain below 3000ft. Dry conditions will continue with building high pressure through this weekend.
1006 PM MST Thu Nov 7 2019 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region tonight and on Friday as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
853 PM PST Thu Nov 7 2019 Corrected to add fire weather discussion Areas of low clouds and fog will develop over coastal areas tonight, possibly becoming dense in some areas by morning as high pressure builds aloft.
Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend under the influence of high pressure. Tranquil weather continues across the region as the forecast area remains under the influence of a light northwesterly flow aloft, downstream from an upper ridge centered along the Pacific Coast. As this ridge builds inland over the next couple of days the airmass will remain stable with temperatures running a little above climo.
/issued 844 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ Cold air advection (CAA) is in full effect this evening, behind a cold front that slid south through the Four State region earlier today. The winds and clouds are certainly not conducive for radiational cooling, but the incoming air mass alone will get lows down to a range from the low to mid 30s in the far north to mid 40s south by 7 am tomorrow morning. Fortunately, no winter weather is possible and if any very isolated locations manage to get down to freezing, they will be confined to SW/SC AR.
Warmer and quiet weather conditions expected for Friday. FGC AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Northwest flow with a series of trough and ridges is still planned throughout the forecast.
254 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 A chilly/mostly clear overnight across the area with high pressure overhead. Brrr, is this early November or mid January? For today, the high drifts southeast while low pressure moves across southern Canada and the Dakotas. Plan on highs in the middle 20s across central WI, to the lower/middle 30s along and west of the Mississippi River. Overnight lows look to be in the low/mid 20s.
320 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Updated at 245 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Strong Canadian high pressure over the Mississippi Valley this morning will settle into the Ohio Valley tonight, keeping us dry but unseasonably cold through the short-term. Cold advection will continue until the low-level thermal trof passes over around midday, but 900mb temps only recover to about -5C.
Current temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 20s. 850 mb waa will pick up as well so under plentiful sunshine, look for the mercury to reach the lower to mid 50s.
918 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Skies continued to clear out across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening behind the upper level trof axis exiting off to the east. high pressure was filtering into the region with winds continuing to subside over the region.
/issued 948 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ Update to included mention of freezing fog in parts of the GDP Mtns overnight.
206 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 A positive PNA pattern persists over the conus as Canadian high pressure brought temperatures into the teens and lower 20s this morning.
Temperatures are going to be challenging tonight, with min temperatures northwest near zero and southwest in the lower 20s. Elsewhere, low/mid clouds, or lack of them, will determine the lows. Broad low and mid level westerly flow will bring warmer air through the region later tonight and Friday. With mainly dry air through much of the atmosphere, we see some potential for cooler than advertised temperatures tonight, so lowered mins 2 to 3 degrees central and east, before the warm front moves through. Tonight will be quiet and much warmer than last night as cloud cover moves in and southwesterly winds and warm air advection kick in.
RMcQueen Drier air near the surface was gradually advecting southward through the area and eroding the low cloud and fog/drizzle activity. RMcQueen Fog has spread southward from the southern Panhandle while temperatures continue near or slightly below freezing. We have added fog and freezing fog for this evening to areas on the Caprock. /issued 151 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ It has been another cold and damp day across the forecast area as cold advection persists while weak mid level ascent from the remnants of a short wave upper trough over New Mexico moves very slowly to the east and southeast.
High pressure ridge aloft continues to build over the Pacific Northwest for mild and windy conditions. It remains windy on Saturday, as another strong cold front approaches the northern portions of the region by late Saturday afternoon.
MVFR cigs have remained slightly longer than anticipated as the lower clouds have been stubborn to scatter out. Expecting all sites to finally become VFR by mid morning with VFR cigs and vis then prevailing through tonight as high pressure takes control.
One huge change was to the high in Hamilton. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than normal climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s in a few places.
Moderate ridge of high pressure continues building into the southwest U.
Ridging that has been persistent across the area this week will flatten as a short wave rides over the top of the ridge.
234 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 A ridge within NW flow aloft today will bring warmer air and dry weather into NE Montana. A cold front will move south across Saskatchewan tonight and will be just north of the NE corner of the state Saturday morning. A wave moving through the area Saturday morning could bring a mix of light rain/sleet/freezing rain/light rain to the NE corner of the state late tonight and Saturday morning. Then, the cold front moves south across the forecast area during the day on Saturday. Moisture will be limited initially with the cold front so there will be only a slight chance of light rain and snow.
Saturday's temps will be even warmer than today, but will unfortunately be short-lived as a cold front will drop south through the area Saturday night. west CONUS ridge and east CONUS mid-level trof.
Given abundant cloud cover today, temperatures will be below normal, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 50s. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s, except over far southern sections where lows in the upper 30s are expected due to some lingering clouds.
This may create some slick spots but the temperature is right at 32 so icing should not become too bad, especially on the warmer road surface.
In the lower levels, southwest winds will increase ahead of a trough working from central Canada into the western Great Lakes.
No change in sensible weather through the weekend as an area of high pressure along the west coast continues to provide more of the same conditions experienced for the past several days.
This cold air advection is directly related to northeast winds of up to 25 knots in the low levels. This westerly flow also continues to bring Pacific based moisture into the area as indicated by high RH values in excess of 70% throughout the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere. This warm and moist airmass is being isentropically lifted over the cooler air near the surface resulting in a broad area of cloud cover this morning.
So far these clouds have had little impact on temperatures locally, with most locations dropping into the lower 20s/upper teens the past couple of hours. This will be a precursor to an even warmer start to the weekend. when afternoon temperatures could spike into the lower 70s across much of the area ahead of a fairly strong cold front.
A cold day is in store as highs reach the lower to mid 40s with north winds averaging around 10 mph. airmass is quite dry so the stage is set for lows to bottom out in the low to mid 20s by Sat morning.
A strong upper-level ridge centered just off the coast of California paired with a strong upper-level trough over the eastern United States will lead to relatively dry and quiet conditions for the Central High Plains. Overnight lows will dip down in the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows Friday night will be a little warmer staying in the mid 30s for most. Conditions will be even drier with the warmer temperatures and relative humidity values reaching the mid teens for most. Overnight lows Saturday will dip down to the low to mid 30s.
Ahead of this system, return southerly flow over the High Plains was bringing some cloudiness to southwest Kansas in an area of isentropic lift. Downslope flow and a warmer airmass will result in daytime highs reaching the 60s in most areas, with upper 60s in the far southwest. Upper level flow over the central Plains will become more westerly as the upper ridge over the northern Rockies begins to flatten out in response to a strong upper level trough dropping south out of Canada. The upper level flow over the northern Plains continues to become more cyclonically curved as the upper trough in Canada forces it way south.
A positive PNA pattern persists over the conus as Canadian high pressure brought temperatures into the teens and lower 20s this morning.
Upper level ridging will remain in place for today keeping mainly clear skies and quiet conditions. Overall we will see similar highs to what we saw yesterday but they should be a few degrees warmer in the north. Over the weekend a deep cold trough will dig out of Central Canada into the central US. This will flatten the ridge over the west and we will move into to a short period of zonal flow.
Cold high pressure is building across the Mid-South and skies have cleared north of the TN/MS line.
246 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 Thin high clouds are trying to drop in from the north as a disturbance moves through northern Idaho into Montana, rounding the top of the high pressure ridge. This ridge of high pressure will build and shift eastward over the area, preventing much influence from the northern Rockies disturbance. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today and Saturday as the ridge of high pressure remains to the west with a north to northwest flow over the region.
Conditions will stay below VFR until the sun comes out and burns off the low clouds.
245 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend under the influence of high pressure.
303 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 High pressure ridge aloft continues to build over the Pacific Northwest for mild and windy conditions. It remains windy on Saturday, as another strong cold front approaches the northern portions of the region by late Saturday afternoon.
539 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 High pressure will remain over the region through Saturday. This high will keep conditions dry while warm air advection into the region will allow temperatures to rise well above normal for this time of year. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 10 degrees warmer with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. These strong winds combined with warmer temperatures and dry conditions, may lead to fire concerns.
Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than normal climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s in a few places.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Low-level warm air advection has brought increasing clouds to the area overnight, and will persist today ahead of a weak northern stream trough set to sag southeast across the area tonight.
Updated at 245 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Strong Canadian high pressure over the Mississippi Valley this morning will settle into the Ohio Valley tonight, keeping us dry but unseasonably cold through the short-term. Cold advection will continue until the low-level thermal trof passes over around midday, but 900mb temps only recover to about -5C.
For the remainder of today and tonight, an upper level ridge continues to build to our west, bringing a predominant northwesterly flow aloft to Colorado. This is expected to usher in some pleasant weather, with westerly low-level winds bringing warmer temperatures to the plains. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s across the plains and 50s in the high valleys. Tonight's lows should dip down to around 30 across the plains and teens to mid 20s in the high valleys. High temps will be in the lower to mid 70s across the plains with temps about 60 in the valleys.
802 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Light and scattered snow showers can be expected Today in the cold flow off the lakes, mainly north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. NW flow on the backside of an exiting trough will keep cool air in place for the region while creating occasional lake enhanced fetches of snow showers for areas mainly north of I-80 and along the eastern ridges.
While tonight is expected to be warmer compared to this morning, temps shud still drop into the 20s across most of the region. This should help temps climb on Sat and continue warmer on Sun. While these temps will be warmer compared to the past couple days, temperatures should still only be around seasonal average. Models are in fairly good agreement placing the cold front over the northern third of the CWA at 12z Sun, and be south of the CWA by Sun evening. Models have delayed CAA Sun night and have therefore trended slightly warmer. Models do have an area of frontogenesis, as well as forcing from the approaching upper trof, well back into the cold air that suggests some light precip possible.
339 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 Low-level warm air advection has brought increasing clouds to the area overnight, and will persist today ahead of a weak northern stream trough set to sag southeast across the area tonight.
410 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 09z surface analysis had a warm front from central MT into western NE. Water vapour showed upper ridge building over the western CONUS with some CI spilling into the CWA. Today through Saturday afternoon, upper ridge will dominate the weather as thermal ridge peaks Saturday. Warm front moves through the rest of the area today with low level downslope flow.
Surface lee trough developing by 18Z. This warmer, drier trend will continue into the early part of the weekend with highs near to above normal.
No change in sensible weather through the weekend as an area of high pressure along the west coast continues to provide more or the same conditions experienced for the past several days.
337 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 A weak H5 wave and 80 knot speed max (jet) will be passing through the forecast area today while weak low pressure passes by just the other side of the international border. Despite that, H85 warm air advection will result in a much warmer day today.
241 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 09z surface analysis had a warm front from central MT into western NE. Water vapour showed upper ridge building over the western CONUS with some CI spilling into the CWA. Today through Saturday afternoon, upper ridge will dominate the weather as thermal ridge peaks Saturday. Warm front moves through the rest of the area today with low level downslope flow.
530 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 A chilly/mostly clear overnight across the area with high pressure overhead. Brrr, is this early November or mid January? For today, the high drifts southeast while low pressure moves across southern Canada and the Dakotas. Plan on highs in the middle 20s across central WI, to the lower/middle 30s along and west of the Mississippi River. Overnight lows look to be in the low/mid 20s. A cold front pushes through Saturday night continuing cloud cover and possibly squeezing out a few snow showers.
905 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Morning satellite imagery is showing the cold front extending west- southwest across southeast GA, northern FL and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With increasing cloudiness and rain chances, the temps will be a little cooler than the past several day, but it will still feel very humid. A cold front will move through the eastern gulf coast waters today bringing a chance of showers and storms. As the front shifts to south over southern Florida later this evening into early Saturday morning, high pressure builds over the southeast U.
1022 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 Thin high clouds are trying to drop in from the north as a disturbance moves through northern Idaho into Montana, rounding the top of the high pressure ridge. This ridge of high pressure will build and shift eastward over the area, preventing much influence from the northern Rockies disturbance. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today and Saturday as the ridge of high pressure remains to the west with a north to northwest flow over the region.
148 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2019 The short term forecast will bring a well-above normal temperature regime, with lows tonight barely making freezing, rebounding to the mid 50s to near 60 Saturday.