Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis places a trough over the northern prairie provinces, with boundary dropping down into northeast Montana. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the west coast into the Great Basin, with northwest flow over our area. A bit cooler day is expected on Wednesday with temperatures closer to average, but a rebound is expected for the later part of the week. Dry conditions continue through the week, with precipitation chances entering the forecast to start the upcoming week as a deep Pacific trough starts its approach.
641 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A weak cold front is located near the Missouri-Iowa border into the lower Great Lakes early this morning. These high temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer than the previous forecast due to the aforementioned favorable atmospheric conditions. High temperatures on Wednesday should be several degrees warmer than this afternoon as the 850-hPa thermal ridge characterized by temperatures approaching +20C slides into the CWA. Leaned toward warmer guidance again on Wednesday with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.
Expect that to remain the case through the next couple days thanks to high pressure over the southwest CONUS. Unfortunately, this smoke is anticipated to remain in the forecast for the next few days with high pressure dominating the flow (or lack thereof). Quiet conditions continue through much of the work week as the high pressure moves east and we enter westerly turning to southwesterly flow.
520 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with continues northwest flow through the Northern Rockies/Plains. At the surface, trof associated with short wave over southern Canada is pushing through the Dakotas. Warmer air will advent into the region today behind surface trof with breezy west/northwest winds and widespread highs in the 80s.
High pressure will slowly drift eastward this week.
648 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Mostly clear skies are expected to become increasingly cloudy ahead of an approaching low pressure today. A strong jet streak propagates into the CWA this morning, leading to the development of an occluded low pressure. Given the lack of moisture in the low levels, these stronger winds aloft are likely to mix down to the surface. A few lingering showers may be possible in the Arrowhead along a weak secondary cold front. The remainder of the week will see mostly zonal flow combined with several troughs moving across the area.
502 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Dry and warmer weather will prevail across the region for the next several days. 06z surface map indicated a trof to the northwest extending from central WI back into southwest IA. 2 am readings ranged from 40 in Olney to 54 in Jacksonville, 10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The trof will lose definition as it shifts across the area today posing little impact. Clear and quiet weather to continue overnight with lows on the mild side in the low to mid 50s. Wednesday may end up being the warmest day this week as a thermal ridge gets squeezed east ahead of the next weak front.
A cooling trend will expand into the interior on Wednesday as the marine layer deepens and high pressure shifts east. Cooler conditions and potentially unsettled weather is expected late week and into the upcoming weekend as a Pacific storm system approaches northern California. Meanwhile, mid/high level clouds are also spreading northward over the Central Coast as a closed low spins off of the coast. This feature will help to deepen the marine layer in the coming days and will also act to cool temperatures aloft as high pressure shifts to the east. That said, warm and dry conditions will continue for one more day across the interior and in the higher elevations as the aforementioned high pressure remains the dominate feature. As noted above, temperatures will cool region-wide on Wednesday as the mid/upper level low pushes inland across the Central Coast.
711 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
Expect to see the low clouds and fog prevail through 14Z/15Z then a return to VFR.
This will bring in cooler air and raise humidity values. Wednesday looks 10-15 degrees cooler with northeast breezes through the day.
Temperatures as of 3 am are generally in the 40s and 50s across the plains and along I-25, and 30s and 40s in the high valleys. Otherwise, another warm and very dry day is in store across the region as a ridge of high pressure slides eastward across the Great Basin and over Colorado. More generally, highs are expected to reach mid to upper 80s across the plains, and mid 70s to around 80 in the high valleys. Tonight's lows dip down to the 40s across the plains and mid 20s to lower 30s in the high valleys. Flattening upper ridge will transition to southwesterly flow as series of dampening upper low/trough entering the central CA coast, fill and move across CO.
1022 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure persists through midweek. Dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night.
/22/ Today and Tonight: A broad trough over the eastern half of the U. will sit just to our north while a strong ridge has taken hold off to our southeast. Situated between the trough and ridge and with high pressure at the surface, our weather will be mild with highs in the low 80s today. Overnight lows will range from the low 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south where the cloud cover will inhibit radiative cooling.
550 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Temperatures this morning will be on the mild side in the mid to lower 50s, with winds beginning to relax late this morning as a cold front begins to makes its way through the area. This cold front passage will be a dry one, and do little to cool temps as highs climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s. A ridge will build back into the region, with a few more disturbances traversing through our region. A cold front will move through the area from the northwest to southeast over the course of this morning.
VFR conditions will continue with light south winds shifting from the northeast and east behind a weak cold front moving through the area this morning. Western US ridging extends back over the western half of the state with a very dry antecedent airmass placed over the region.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals today as high pressure and a dry air mass allow for clear skies through tonight. /Today through Wednesday/ Generally weak flow aloft continues this morning, as our area remains juxtaposed between a trof axis to our ne and the upper ridge to our w. At the sfc, high pressure remains anchored across our area, centered just to our e.
With plenty of sunshine and warmer air already in place, temperature on Wednesday will rise about 5 degrees above the calculated-normal.
937 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure entrenched over the Tennessee Valley is leading to clear skies and light winds. Overnight lows look to fall into the lower 50s for most areas, which is a few degrees warmer compared to the last couple of mornings. Temps then look to rebound into the lower 80s Wed afternoon, which is near or slightly above normal for this time of the year. This trend continues into Wed night/early Thu, with lows in the mid 50s before temps once again rebound into the lower 80s Thu afternoon. The focus after Thu will divert to the Gulf where the attention will be on the track of Tropical Cyclone Delta.
601 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 The long wave ridge that has been over the Western half of the U.
702 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure will bring fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through today. Another cold front will pass across the region on Wednesday with some gusty winds, but no rainfall is expected. High pressure will then build over the eastern US with fair weather expected through the end of the week. A lee trough will also develop over the piedmont today and linger overnight. With high pressure blocking the Gulf and westerly flow aloft, no rain is expected with this trough. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than normal today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the mountains and mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge. Upper level pattern through the forecast period remains mostly zonal while a trough gradually moves eastward, bringing Wednesday's front through the area.
244 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure and dry weather will continue to dominate central and southeast Illinois through much of the week.
By Tue, a weak upper trough and frontal boundary expected to push through and that will also give us another chance for showers/isolated storms.
303 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 (Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020) Tonight through Wednesday night: Another warm and breezy day across southern WI with highs climbing into the lower 70s. Otherwise there will be a brief westerly wind shift behind the front with overnight temps falling into the low 50s. Despite the early morning boundary, still expecting another warm day for Wednesday as upper-level northwesterly flows setups across the region and high pressure begins to build down from the Canadian Plains into the Upper Midwest overnight Wednesday.
High pressure entrenched over the Tennessee Valley is leading to clear skies and light winds. Overnight lows look to fall into the lower 50s for most areas, which is a few degrees warmer compared to the last couple of mornings. Temps then look to rebound into the lower 80s Wed afternoon, which is near or slightly above normal for this time of the year. This trend continues into Wed night/early Thu, with lows in the mid 50s before temps once again rebound into the lower 80s Thu afternoon. The focus after Thu will divert to the Gulf where the attention will be on the track of Tropical Cyclone Delta.
Another warm and dry day today under a ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will reach the low 80s in the valley or about 12 degrees above normal. The upper level flow shifts to the southwest in response to incoming upper level trough expected this weekend.
500 mb ridge builds east and becomes centered over the forecast area on Wednesday. 700 mb temps on Wednesday bump up about a degree over today, however a surface based wind shift should bring in slightly cooler air and keep temps a degree or two below what we are seeing this afternoon. Upper level high pressure is progged to be centered over southern Colorado Wednesday night.
Watching a short wave trough coming out of southern Manitoba that will track across the northern Great Lakes overnight. This does become a focus for the low level moisture transport, which combined with some weak frontogenesis in the 1000- 700 mb layer and pretty good up glide on the 300K isentropic surface, could be enough to generate a few showers. Any showers that do develop will move off to the east of the area by late evening as an area of high pressure builds in from the northwest through Wednesday.
Winds are light N-E or calm everywhere as high pressure hangs on with a 1020mb contour for even Lufkin and Tyler if you round up. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals today as high pressure and a dry air mass allow for clear skies through tonight. /Today through Wednesday/ Generally weak flow aloft continues this morning, as our area remains juxtaposed between a trof axis to our ne and the upper ridge to our w. At the sfc, high pressure remains anchored across our area, centered just to our e.
Longwave troughing remains dominant over Canada extending across the eastern CONUS, while ridging has taken hold from the Pacific Northwest extending into the Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure is centered over southeastern Canada, while closer to home the trough has become much more diffuse although winds have remained quite light across the area. We remain on track to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Tonight, 925-850mb winds turn westerly and as a result we start to see a downslope component with WAA, keeping mild overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is about 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning. With these winds continuing to usher warmer air into the area Wednesday, alongside increasing heights and thicknesses, temperatures are only expected to become hotter tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Tonight through Wednesday night Upper high over the central and southern Rockies tonight through Wednesday night will allow for generally clear skies and dry conditions.
The 500-mb ridge slides more overhead Wednesday resulting in weaker winds than Tuesday. Wednesday will be slightly cooler, but will still see temperatures in the 80s east of the Laramie Range and 70s west as 700-mb temperatures climb into the 10-14C range.
Overnight into Wednesday winds will gradually shift to northerly as the upper level trough across the Great Lakes shifts, though winds will be much lighter than today.
It could be breezy again across north central North Dakota Wednesday afternoon, which lies farther away from the ridge axis. A back door low level cold front moving down from Canada earlier on Wednesday will limit highs to the 60s.
High pressure will maintain a warm, dry and stable airmass across the region through much of the week.
106 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a trough exiting east of the area while another was making its way southeast through southern Manitoba Canada/Dakotas. High pressure build back in tonight through Wednesday for quiet conditions. High pressure and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Quiet weather/warming trend will be the rule through the end of the work week and into the weekend as a mid-level ridge amplifies and builds into the central CONUS.
225 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Cold front continues to move south through the area this afternoon with winds increasing out of the north behind it. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow in the wake of this front with highs expected to be in the 60s. A ridge of high pressure will then begin shifting east, bringing warmer conditions for the end of the week and the start of the weekend.
230 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Warm and breezy this afternoon with upper level ridge west of Montana supporting northwesterly flow aloft. Backing flow aloft will allow a weak backdoor cold front to slip into the area from the northeast overnight.
For Wednesday, a weak cold front or NNW wind shift will pass through the area, but have little influence on our sensible weather. Forecast highs range from the low 70s far north to around 80 F south of highway 34. Overview: Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend with stubborn upper-level ridging across the Central U.
1104 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with continues northwest flow through the Northern Rockies/Plains. At the surface, trof associated with short wave over southern Canada is pushing through the Dakotas. Warmer air will advent into the region today behind surface trof with breezy west/northwest winds and widespread highs in the 80s.
Later this evening and tonight, a cold front will push through the forecast area. Additionally, a jet streak across ND/MN/WI will continue shifting southeast and away from the area tonight, as high pressure builds in at the surface. The advection of a cooler air mass through Wednesday with northwest flow aloft will result in high temperatures closer to, but still above, normal, in the upper 60s to mid 70s. We begin with upper ridging upstream gradually coming across the central plains, with warm temperatures just off the surface.
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Temperatures this morning will be on the mild side in the mid to lower 50s, with winds beginning to relax late this morning as a cold front begins to makes its way through the area. This cold front passage will be a dry one, and do little to cool temps as highs climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s. A ridge will build back into the region, with a few more disturbances traversing through our region. This front will wash out through 00Z with all terminals becoming predominantly out of the southwest after 00Z ahead of the next weak cold front.
High pressure and lack of deep layer moisture will mean a dry forecast will continue for the short term.
1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A weak cold front is located near the Missouri-Iowa border into the lower Great Lakes early this morning. These high temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer than the previous forecast due to the aforementioned favorable atmospheric conditions. High temperatures on Wednesday should be several degrees warmer than this afternoon as the 850-hPa thermal ridge characterized by temperatures approaching +20C slides into the CWA. Leaned toward warmer guidance again on Wednesday with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.
Otherwise sunny skies today as large high pressure system lies over the forecast area with warming southwest flow. Light winds will continue next 24 hours as broad area of high pressure lies overhead. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 82 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 79 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 81 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 76 52 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 0.
A warming trend will continue into tomorrow as an upper ridges shifts eastward from the Southwestern US.
12Z upper air maps today shows a positive tilt long-wave trof positioned from the Mid-MS River valley to eastern TX while a mid level ridge over the northern Bahamas was nosing westward into the eastern Gulf. Around the western flank of the mid-level ridge is a plume of deep tropical moisture originating from the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure was anchored across the Mid-Atlantic into the Mid-South. Surface trof, from what's left of Gamma, extends from the northern Yucatan into the southern Gulf. Upper level ridging gradually builds westward across much of FL and the adjacent northeastern Gulf this period which allows for a slow west northwest displacement to the lead moisture axis across the Gulf coast. Highs on Wednesday trend in the mid to upper 80s inland and in the lower 80s near the coast.
Meanwhile, high pressure will remain sprawled across the area at the surface into Wednesday.
High pressure remains the dominate feature across the Central High Plains bringing dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue through the weed into the weekend as high pressure remains the dominate feature across the Central Plains.
256 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
Forecast Summary: Warm temperatures averaging over 10 degrees above normal will remain in place into the weekend before a deep trough rides into the Plains from the west.
A moisture-starved cold front will make its way south across Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday, but we will mainly notice a little stronger SW breeze and warmer temperatures. Highs on Wed afternoon will push past seasonal normals with a few spots getting into the lower 80s. Here in the Ohio Valley, we are expected to remain dry despite a cold front passing through Wednesday night.
322 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Warmer temperatures are on tap for the next couple of days. Expect above normal highs in the low to middle 80s with lows mostly in the 50s.
Dry conditions with warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the end of the work week. Warmer temperatures will persist through the weekend, but rain chances will return then as the remnants of a tropical system move to the south of the area. Warm air was across the area with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. The high clouds will pass through the area later this afternoon, and a few more may arrive later tonight. These should only allow temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 50s most areas.
Overnight into Wednesday, Canadian high pressure will build into the Northern Plains resulting in light winds.
242 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night.
1043 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure and dry weather will continue to dominate central and southeast Illinois through much of the week.
Weak cold advection behind the front will not take hold until very late in the day, so with plenty of insolation and warmer air in place, temperature on Wednesday will rise about 5 degrees above the calculated-normal.
Tonight and Wednesday A strong upper jet moving across Upper Michigan and a Pacific cold front will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin as they moves across the region tonight. Very dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere and fast movement of the showers will make for light rainfall totals. Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures are expected Wednesday as weak high pressure builds into the area. Despite the passage of a weak cold front, it will still be a little milder than usual.
Much of the Midsouth will see afternoon high temperatures 30-40 degrees warmer than morning lows, mostly in the middle to upper 70s. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 40s with a few locations in the upper 30s.
346 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure will move east of the area today, with southerly winds bringing warmer temperatures through the middle of the week.
221 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure over the Tennessee Valley is leading to mostly sunny skies and mild weather, with temperatures this afternoon generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. High pressure starts to break down on Wednesday. Warming temperatures aloft will allow for highs to get up into the low 80s across northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers have been racing across the Florida Straits, over the Lower and Middle Keys, and into the southeast Gulf all morning. Nonetheless, the interaction between the somewhat distant hurricane and a high pressure center spreading off the Southeast U.
253 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 It looks quiet with a warming trend as an upper level ridge shifts east into the central CONUS.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s further north where with cooler air will move in by early afternoon. The cooler air that builds into the region behind this system will be transient in nature and largely wash through the region on Wednesday night.
245 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 An upper level ridge will be centered over the area tonight and Wed, keeping the weather dry. Temps on Wed will be above average, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s over the plains and mostly in the 70s in the high valleys, and in the upper 60s and lower 70s in Teller County.
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 The low level easterly flow will continue into Wednesday as high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast and out into the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and this combined with the high humidity will push heat indices back above 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise sunny skies today as large high pressure system lies over the forecast area with warming southwest flow.
1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure and dry weather will continue to dominate central and southeast Illinois through much of the week.
Once the storm quickly passes our next big cold front will slide quickly south. Winds are light N-E or calm everywhere as high pressure hangs on with a 1020mb contour for even Lufkin and Tyler if you round up. /Today through Wednesday/ Generally weak flow aloft continues this morning, as our area remains juxtaposed between a trof axis to our ne and the upper ridge to our w. At the sfc, high pressure remains anchored across our area, centered just to our e.