Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020/ Tropical moisture connection will continue into the Midsouth on Sunday, around the western periphery of a ridge axis along the Carolina coast.
An upper level low continues its eastward progression across the SD/MN border this afternoon. As the FGEN weakens, this band will weaken through the rest of the afternoon while it moves south towards Lake Itasca, Detroit Lakes and Wahpeton/Breckenridge. A cold front associated with this wave will push south across the area late tonight and tomorrow morning, shifting winds to the north and keeping temps mostly in the 60s tomorrow.
Otherwise, expect another mild and very humid night with a mostly cloudy sky and lows in the low to mid 70s. The wx heading into the new work week may then become more dependent on the eventual track of Tropical Cyclone Sally, as the system approaches the north cntrl Gulf.
Meanwhile, the closed low over the upper Mississippi valley this afternoon will continue tracking to the northeast across the Great Lakes region tonight while weakening. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight thanks to our tropical airmass.
905 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Rain is expected tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front.
808 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A period of showers and thunderstorms occurs from west to east this evening and tonight as a cold front moves through the area. A cold front associated with a low pressure system moving into the northern Great Lakes sweeps through the area this afternoon into tonight. The front is into Northwest OH early Sunday allowing for IN/MI areas to retain cloud cover as cooler air filters in behind the front.
627 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 The center of upper level low pressure is currently centered across far southwest MN. Some wrap around moisture in the form of cloud cover continues to influence the area this afternoon, but this should quickly dissipate or move off to the east of the area this evening as the upper low continues to move off to the east. Upper level ridging builds east and northeast across the central and southern plains for the first half of the coming work week.
A weak dry cold front tonight will cut temperatures about 5 degrees for Sundays highs over central and eastern zones.
751 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times this afternoon into Sunday as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will then settle into the region through the first part of the work week. A cold front will swing across the fa on Sunday, bringing a gradual end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. High pressure will continue to build in for Sunday night, with decreasing clouds for the region.
/issued 308 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020/ Upper level high pressure ridge will drift east into tomorrow, leaving the region under enhanced moisture and sandwiched between a frontal boundary to the northwest, and newly-named Tropical Storm Sally to the south.
Fairly quiet marine conditions will prevail early on in the marine forecast period as light to moderate NE winds will continue due to the broad surface troffing over the north central Gulf.
/issued 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The strong 500mb low continues to trek across the northern Plains with the trough lifting out of the Great Lakes on Sunday as high pressure builds again across the Desert SW. Mid level low pressure continues across the Gulf of Mexico, with abundant tropical moisture moving into Deep South Texas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Northerly winds continue thanks to low pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico, keeping Heat Indices in the 90s Sunday afternoon.
18Z surface data has a cold front running from northern Wisconsin to eastern Arkansas. Behind the cold front another front ran from western Iowa into the Oklahoma panhandle. Dew points near and ahead of the cold front ranged from the mid 60s to the 70s while dew points in the 50s were across the northern and central Plains.
840 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 High pressure will wedge down the Atlantic Seaboard through Sunday.
More rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to sweep across the Keys, particularly the Lower Keys. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Keys. Mariners expect continued squally weather, particularly on waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge.
528 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Short and to the point, the forecast package is squarely addressing impacts for imminent tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Tropical Storm Sally, just moving off the lower Florida coast.
Overall, overnight low temperatures will be chilly for the CWA, especially in the higher terrain where sub freezing temperatures are expected. Dry conditions expected to persist overnight also as the upper level ridge begins to amplify over the intermountain west region.
High pressure passing overhead will bring temperatures back to and above seasonal normals. Midweek, a trough will dip down from the Pacific Northwest and bring with it cooler temperatures and breezy winds.
Upper high building over the Great Basin and CO next 24 hrs will result in a weak trough stretched over NM from west to east, suppressing the elevated veil of hz/wildfire smoke to the srn half to third of the state although most areas will remain VFR.
Also overnight a weak cold front is forecast to push southeast through the CWA with northerly winds transporting some drier air into the region. /Issued 203 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020/ A weak cold front currently across northwest Kansas is expected to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight into Sunday morning.
549 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Rain is expected tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front.
Today we will continue to see rising heights aloft as high pressure over the Rockies continues to build east across the Central Plains. This will help to advect warmer air into the region.
1128 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 An upper ridge will be centered over the Great Basin tonight, while on Sunday it is forecast to shift eastward over UT and into western CO. With the upper ridge in place, the weather across most of the area will be dry. Low temps tonight should mostly be in the 40s over the plains, with mainly 30s in the high valleys. Highs on Sunday should mostly be in the 80s across the plains, with 70s in the high valleys, and upper 60s to lower 70s in Teller County.
248 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A weak upper low over the state of Sonora in Mexico is bringing southwesterly flow aloft to the area, which is further aided by westerly flow underneath the 589 dm high centered over northern Nevada. Heading into the work week, the weak upper low will continue it's slow forward progression towards northern New Mexico by midweek. /Canadian border and a weaker branch going across southern California and lifting into our area (owing to upper level high venting what could be Hurricane Sally by midweek), will bring continued potential for smoky/hazy skies across the combined Panhandles.
1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Six hourly pressure rises up to 9 mb showing up across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, now beginning to move into northeast Montana and Northwest North Dakota behind the sagging cold front. A cold front will swing through tonight. A line of showers affiliated with aforementioned upper low continues to exit our area, with lingering cloud cover over the James River Valley. Only notable feature will be a weak cold front dropping through the area which will lead to an increase in cloud cover over the far north central as a modest short wave zips through. On Sunday, quiet weather expected but temperatures will be a bit cooler behind aforementioned front.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 71 87 69 84 / 30 30 50 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 84 65 84 / 50 30 50 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 70 85 64 85 / 60 30 40 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 82 60 82 / 60 30 40 10 10.
An upper ridge centered over the Intermountain West broadens and expands onto the High Plains, which helps promote further warming for the region. Closer to the surface, a high pressure drifts across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Blended in warmer guidance (MET) to result in mid 80s for central Neb and near 90F in the panhandle. Tonight, western Nebraska is fully in southerly return flow around the high pressure.
402 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will taper off through the day as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build into the region through the early part of the work week. Ahead of this, moist southwesterly flow is continuing across the region ahead of an associated cold front currently moving across northwest Indiana.
Otherwise, in a low level warm air advection regime, the main story for today will be much warmer temperatures. It will be a milder night with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
226 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with a short wave tracking eastward across southern SASK. At the surface, cold front associated with short wave extending from eastern MT through western ND. Cold front will sag into our northern half of zones and will limit highs across northwest SD, but very warm conditions expected across the rest of the area as upper ridge begins building into the Northern Plains.
Things look pretty quiet otherwise through the forecast period as upper level high pressure over most of the southwestern/south central CONUS lead to increasing heights over the region. This is leading to warmer temperatures for the next few days where the northern two thirds of the forecast area will see around average highs (mid 70s) today while highs for the southern third will be above average (mid to upper 80s).
The main cold front, currently located over central MO, will work it way through the forecast area today.
The overall setup is favorable with moist ground and high pressure drifting overhead with a deep light wind layer near the surface. Broad upper ridging centered over the Rockies will begin to encroach on our region at the start of the work week, which will lead to a continued gradual warmup through midweek as warmer 850mb temps advect overhead.
145 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times this afternoon into Sunday as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will then settle into the region through the first part of the work week. A cold front will swing across the fa on Sunday, bringing a gradual end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. High pressure will continue to build in for Sunday night, with decreasing clouds for the region.
130 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will wedge down the Atlantic Seaboard through Sunday.
454 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region later today.
There's a chance some drier BL air making its way southward with a weak cold front around sunrise and that might be enough to keep the fog at bay.
1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 The center of upper level low pressure is currently centered across far southwest MN. Some wrap around moisture in the form of cloud cover continues to influence the area this afternoon, but this should quickly dissipate or move off to the east of the area this evening as the upper low continues to move off to the east. Upper level ridging builds east and northeast across the central and southern plains for the first half of the coming work week.
Otherwise, height rises will occur today both aloft as the western ridge expands eastward, and at the surface as high pressure settles in from Nebraska. With high pressure in control, winds will be light and skies will be clear. High pressure aloft should continue to strengthen over the area early in the workweek.
337 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A dry cold front across southern North Dakota will move south today, bringing cooler air through the state. Tonight, the frontal boundary will begin moving northward as a dry warm front.
218 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Tranquil weather is expected through the short term period as a large upper ridge translates from the Great Basin to the central plains.
1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 At 2 PM, an upper level low was located over southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Scattered showers were located underneath this low. Further to the east a cold front was moving east into central Wisconsin, showers and scattered storms were located ahead of this front. For tonight, the upper low will move east across northern Iowa. Meanwhile, further north the cold front will move east across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower and mid-50s.
This drier air moves in under an upper level high pressure ridge that begins to push east off the Carolina coast Today.
1051 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Upper level low continues to plod along through southern MN, with scattered showers around the core of the upper low east of I-29, and a more organized deformation band of light showers wrapping southward across northeast SD and the mid James River valley. Subtle wave rides the ridging aloft toward northern MN, and a back door front is now indicated in most solutions slipping toward the highway 14 corridor during the afternoon.
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A weak system is in the process of crossing over the area as an upper level low crosses west to east overhead. High pressure builds overnight for light winds and the possibility for dense fog, or at the minimum, large areas of fog. Sunday should be fairly nice day though a little on the cool side under a broad upper level trough left in the wake of the departing, but filling, upper level closed low. High pressure will largely be overhead in the extended with a few exceptions.
245 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large high pressure ridge setting over the Intermountain West of the CONUS.
As a large scale ridge builds across the western CONUS, the central US will remain rather quite with the jet stream displaced well to our north.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s, and once again will have to monitor fog potential, especially in favored cold air drainage areas.
241 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions to central and southeast Illinois today. The ridge of high pressure will linger over the region for a few days, resulting in quiet weather. 1019 mb high pressure over the eastern Plains will shift east into the region today. Tonight, with the ridge just to our north, light winds and clear skies will prevail.
Mid level ridging will begin to build in across the region and a Canadian high will work its way eat-southeast across the Great Lake Region Sunday into Monday. This should keep conditions dry across southern Wisconsin with afternoon high temperatures toping off in the low 70s.
A subtle disturbance will start to flatten the ridge of high pressure on Monday.
437 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with a short wave tracking eastward across southern SASK. At the surface, cold front associated with short wave extending from eastern MT through western ND. Cold front will sag into our northern half of zones and will limit highs across northwest SD, but very warm conditions expected across the rest of the area as upper ridge begins building into the Northern Plains. Warm front lifts eastward on Monday with deep mixing and breezy/dry southwest winds bringing potential Red Flag conditions to all but our far eastern zones.
1015 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will taper off through the day as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build into the region through the early part of the work week. Cold front is pushing across the fa attm. High pressure will shift from north of the region to northeast of the area.
Things look pretty quiet otherwise through the forecast period as upper level high pressure over most of the southwestern/south central CONUS lead to increasing heights over the region. This is leading to warmer temperatures for the next few days where the northern two thirds of the forecast area will see around average highs (mid 70s) today while highs for the southern third will be above average (mid to upper 80s). Everywhere will see well above average highs Monday as highs range from the low 80s to the low 90s. The period starts out with modest upper level high pressure over the western U. with ridging extending northward into western Canada.
723 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region later today.
Since there will generally be no change in the low level thermodynamic environment (given absence of any appreciable advection thanks to light winds throughout the troposphere), we will be looking at afternoon temperatures once again in the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. Monday may be a touch cooler as we see a slight enhancement in low level easterly component wind, which could help drive lower level temperatures down just a little bit with the weak upslope flow.
518 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Tranquil weather is expected through the short term period as a large upper ridge translates from the Great Basin to the central plains.
The upper low that has been hanging out with us for the last couple of days will finally make its exit and high pressure will take its place. Highs will finally reach the low to mid 70s again, which is right where they should be for mid September. Monday will be warmer still as southerly flow allows for WAA over the region. Western Minnesota will see the warmest temperatures with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s, while temperatures will range from the mid 70s to low 80s across central and southern Minnesota and low 70s across western Wisconsin. The southerly winds will also kick our dew points up a notch into the low 60s, but overall, expect Monday to be a very nice day with plenty of sunshine.
A weak dry cool front that slid into the area overnight will lead to some easterly flow at the low levels and a bit cooler temperatures today. Stronger dry cold front moves through Monday night.
645 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will taper off through the day as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build into the region through the early part of the work week. Ahead of this, moist southwesterly flow is continuing across the region ahead of an associated cold front currently moving across northwest Indiana. High pressure will shift from north of the region to northeast of the area.
High pressure will become centered across the eastern Great Basin today, then remain in place through much of the upcoming week.
330 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure aloft will remain in control of the weather over the Southwest much of this week. The center will shift farther south by midweek, which will result in warmer weather here, and should help reduce the areas of smoke and haze. Cooler weather will arrive late in the week with an incoming Pacific trough. Areas of haze and smoke are likley again today as flow around a large area of high pressure aloft continues to steer stagnated smoke high in the atmosphere south across SoCal. Lower level flow will also turn more southeasterly, which should help improve air quality in the lower atmosphere as well.
A dry cold front across southern North Dakota will move south today, bringing cooler air through the state. Tonight, the frontal boundary will begin moving northward as a dry warm front. As the h500 ridge that has plagued the northwest US with excessive heat and dry weather flattens and moves east, portions of the northern plains will get a taste of this warm and dry weather, just briefly, on Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 90s across the southwest to the lower 70s north central.
540 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A cold front is entering KY from the northwest early this morning.
511 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region later today.
In the San Joaquin Valley, thermometer readings may not get any higher than the lower 80s in some locations this afternoon. The high pressure ridge that's been over central California the past few days will be nudged eastward into the Rockies within 24 hours by an upper level low well off the Pacific Northwest coast. In the lowest elevations of our CWA, an onshore flow may bring a shallow intrusion of marine air into the San Joaquin Valley tonight, especially north of Fresno County. Unfortunately, the eastward displacement of the upper level ridge of high pressure will only be temporary. The models forecast this ridge to build back over central California late Monday and regain dominance of our weather pattern into midweek.
Monday will bring much warmer high temperatures in the low 70s near the International Border, to low 80s near the South Dakota Border.
An upper ridge centered over the Intermountain West broadens and expands onto the High Plains, which helps promote further warming for the region. Closer to the surface, a high pressure drifts across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Blended in warmer guidance (MET) to result in mid 80s for central Neb and near 90F in the panhandle. Tonight, western Nebraska is fully in southerly return flow around the high pressure. The upper ridge flattens somewhat over the central Plains, while a cool front lines up near the Black Hills. A pre-frontal dryline may progress through the forecast area with dew points ranging from around 40F in the panhandle to the lower 50s central Neb.
510 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions to central and southeast Illinois today. The ridge of high pressure will linger over the region for a few days, resulting in quiet weather. 1019 mb high pressure over the eastern Plains will shift east into the region today. Tonight, with the ridge just to our north, light winds and clear skies will prevail.
At the surface, a trough extended from eastern lake Superior to Lake Huron was sliding to the east with northwest winds in its wake. Surface ridging and a gradual influx of drier air along with increased heating/mixing by afternoon should bring clear skies helping to boost temps into the mid 60s north to near 70 south. Even with afternoon dewpoints only dropping into the lower 40s, expect temps to drop into the lower to mid 30s over interior portions of western Upper Michigan.
high pressure will continue to dominate southern Colorado for the next 24 hours. Mozley Mostly dry forecast for the work week with the upper ridge of high pressure remaining over the western U. Temperatures will remain above normal with light winds expected within the upper ridge.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s, and once again will have to monitor fog potential, especially in favored cold air drainage areas. Upper ridging builds back into the central CONUS for Monday into mid week, allowing for temperatures to creep back to near normal levels in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day.
Daytime mixing will improve visibilities after sunrise, and low clouds should dissipate as a dry, northwest flow regime sets up a calm, cooler end to the weekend. High pressure will build behind a slightly-stronger cold front currently in east-central MO and west- central IL, associated with a mid-level trough across the Great Lakes region. Temperatures return to a more- seasonable low 80s Monday, but easterly flow as the high pressure retreats will keep dew points limited to the low 60s.
This drier air moves in under an upper level high pressure ridge that begins to push east off the Carolina coast Today. This ridge moving out will allow the frontal boundary developing over the MS river valley top move east and Tropical Storm Sally to move NW into the North central gulf through Monday afternoon.
Smoke continues to thin along the coast today as as trough approaches from the west.
High pressure building over the Southwestern United States will bringing a period of warmer weather.