Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EAST WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
CURRENTLY THE LOWEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS/OH RIVER VALLEY. 77 /ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ A GENERALLY PLEASANT/WARM EVENING SHOULD PREVAIL PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MO SW TO CENTRAL TX IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES, ANTICIPATING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN THE 40S TOMORROW NIGHT.
/issued 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ A weak cold front today has kept temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday, though still well above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across southeast New Mexico and on the Marfa Plateau to the middle 40s to lower 50s elsewhere, noticeably cooler than last night, but still a few degrees above normal. Temperatures Wednesday will be a couple degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid 70s north to mid 80s south, with some lower 90s possible through the Rio Grande Valley.
WE DO EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH AND WEST TEXAS FROM SHERMAN TO SAN ANGELO TO MIDLAND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVG SOUTH OF I-30. /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AS OF 20Z. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR SW OREGON TO THE NW OFF THE OREGON COAST. WHICH SHOULD MARK AN END TO RAIN CHANCES AS MODELS INDICATE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES UP. A STRENGTHENIBNG UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY WED.
1021 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.
THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE M/U60S BUT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATION MAY REALIZE L60S.
917 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 10 TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS LOW. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH FROM NEAR HARRISON. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THE TROUGH 80-100 MILES TO THE WEST.
901 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 7 AM. EXPECTING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL H850 BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH MORE SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER MISSOURI. AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY. LOWS WILL FALL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH COOLER LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE MID 30S.
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO.
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri, with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois. HRRR has been consistently showing scattered thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm. Given strong directional low- level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of any convection that develops later today will be supercellular. Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Updated to upgrade portions of the high wind watch to a high Confidence has increased this evening that gusty northwest winds will increase into the 40 to 45 mph range by late Wednesday morning northwest of a Johnson City, to Garden City, to La Crosse line based on the forecast 850mb winds and mean mixed layer winds from the 18z NAM, 18z GFS, and latest RAP. Have therefore upgraded the High wind watch to a high wind warning in these locations. A line of thunderstorms will eventually develop along the trailing cold front, but not until the front encounters deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico father east.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT.
THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE DRIVEN E QUICKLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS OK/N TX. AS THE H500 TROUGH WRAPS UP AND LIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THE H500 TROUGH WRAPS UP AND LIFTS E/NE INTO ERN KS THROUGH DAYBREAK. MADE NO CHANGE TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NW/N OK MAY DIP AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRI MORNING.
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN A FEW NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. AN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROF IMPACTS THE PAC NW COAST ON WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS COLDER AND MORE CLOUD-FREE INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
1005 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
542 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. The Wabash River Valley will remain mostly clear through the entire night and will experience the lightest return flow on the back side of the high. Further west where clouds will increase sooner and southerly flow will be stronger, lows in the Illinois River Valley will remain in the lower to middle 40s.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN EASTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AFTER SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
CEILINGS GRADUALLY BECOMING MVFR AGAIN AFTER 17Z AND VFR 19Z-21Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED VERY SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC TURNING OF THE FLOW OVER TEXAS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST FROM MONTANA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN UTAH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND BRING THE COLD FRONT ALONG.
E THE MAIN AXIS OF A POSITIVELY TILTED BURGEONING MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A PURELY NONTROPICAL LOW JUST EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY CROSSING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDING DO ILLUSTRATE THE THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWAT AROUND 2. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 57 DEGREES.
640 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP END THE RAIN THIS EVENING AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
532 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALLOWED FOR SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW. REACHED AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S STATEWIDE. HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION. ALOFT NEARLY ZONAL TO A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
907 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE THIS EVENING INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AL. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS SE TX TOMORROW AFTN AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
459 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015 TODAY - SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOMETIME AROUND 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION COULD REACH THE LOW 40S BRIEFLY.
AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS LATE WED NIGHT TO THIS FORECAST AREA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING E ACROSS THE REGION. 09 /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALLOWED FOR SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
519 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 A VIGOROUS TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN TRACK RIGHT OVER OR NEAR LA CROSSE WITH A DRY SLOT PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
/issued 243 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ Southwest flow aloft persists across the region today ahead of an approaching upper trough to the west. Overnight tonight, the upper trough to the west will quickly move east through the Four Corners region then head NE into the Central Plains throughout the day Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong upper jet moving around the base of the trough will move over the region, increasing wind speeds areawide late tonight persisting through Wednesday morning. The area of greatest concern for high winds will be the Guadalupe Mountains, particularly in the highest elevations.
657 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA.
1019 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
As of 2 pm, many sites across interior NorCal are anywhere from 2 to 14 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. However, the forecast highs for today will still be below normal as cooler air from the recent storm lingers.
545 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 Southerly winds and comfortable temperatures were the rule today as low pressure was developing in Colorado. High pressure had moved off into the Ohio Valley and low level moisture was beginning to increase across the southern plains with 60F dewpoints in northern Texas. A strong upper level trough is currently pushing across Southern California into Arizona. Southerly winds will continue tonight and therefore will keep temperatures warmer than past nights. Current timing expectations: Storms should initiate in SE Kansas between 10am-12pm, reaching the Highway 65 corridor between 2pm- 4pm and our far eastern counties from 4pm-6pm.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 240 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TO IGNITE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ALLOWING FOR BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
928 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 240 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TO IGNITE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ALLOWING FOR BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
924 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
616 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
301 PM PST TUE NOV 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
526 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST GROUND SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. FOR WED WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
957 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
935 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP END THE RAIN THIS EVENING AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH IN FRONT OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS. PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S AT MID AFTERNOON. WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S PLATEAU AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. PROGRESSIVE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS ACROSS ARKANSAS.
859 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 High pressure continues to keep mostly clear skies over central IL this evening. High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. The Wabash River Valley will remain mostly clear through the entire night and will experience the lightest return flow on the back side of the high. Further west where clouds will increase sooner and southerly flow will be stronger, lows in the Illinois River Valley will remain in the lower to middle 40s.
WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE HEAVY FOG MODELS SINCE WE GOT WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY, BUT IT WOULD NOT SUPRISED ME TO SEE FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS NEAR WATER SOURCES.
THE EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WED AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT INCREASE WED NIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
745 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015 COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR GLOBE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BRINGING SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS /15Z-03Z/ AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A strong upper level low over the southwest United States is expected to progress eastward and undergo strong baroclinic development across the plains on Wednesday.
921 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE ALSO UPPED THE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH THIS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE AND EAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
637 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE FA FOLLOW BY STRATUS/FOG AND SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. COLD FRONT STILL SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH.
WIND/CONVECTIVE/WINTER HEADLINES NEEDED??? NEEDLESS TO SAY HEADLINES WERE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO COORDINATE WITH THE HIGHLY VARIABLE WEATHER AND DIFFERENT STARTING/ENDING TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. THE H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER UTAH WITH SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP. THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FARTHER EAST AND THIS IS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. DID REPLACE PART OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING. LEFT THE EASTERN PART OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE AS THIS WOULD NOT BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS IF THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING FARTHER EAST.
601 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING UP THE COAST TONIGHT.
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES STAYED COOLER AND MOISTURE VALUES HIGHER.
537 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DRYLINE OR PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AND WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY WARM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES EAST INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
559 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
735 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS SE TX TOMORROW AFTN AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
622 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP END THE RAIN THIS EVENING AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
901 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS DEUEL COUNTY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER. THOUGH STILL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING /ON EITHER SIDE/ AT LUBBOCK.
406 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING OFF THE NORTH EAST COAST.
213 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF NE PA.
TO our northwest, a surface cold front pushes on from a low in north-central Kentucky across the center of Kentucky and Tennessee to northern Mississippi and into central Arkansas.
234 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON TUE WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN U. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED. SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND REMAINS INTO WED.
404 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. MINS WILL BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S LOWER SUSQ.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. WITH AN ATTENDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
SW FLOW MIXING DOWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 22 AT 17Z WITH STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ALREADY HAVING INCREASED 1-2 DECAMETERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. IF CONDITIONS TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER OR MOIST THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD.
341 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS ONE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST S/W APPROACHING THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL WITH COLD POOL/STEEPING LAPSE RATES APPROACHING WITH TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THINK UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.