Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing over the eastern U. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced northwesterly flow over the central U. Tonight - Tuesday: This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning. A more westerly boundary layer will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the southwestern third of the CWA.
823 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AND HEADED FOR NW WI AT 01Z. THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS MODERATES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST RETREATING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST AND WE ARE HAVING A HECK OF A TIME REACHING OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S. FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON TUESDAY A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW.
A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 90. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND.
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS.
WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG. ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY CUT INTO DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN WEST CENTRAL WI TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING AND RETROGRADING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT. A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM - IN THE FORM OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH - WILL DRIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. BROAD TROUGHINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER SHORT WAVE CENTER AND BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION. AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, IN THE MORNING, WILL EXPECT THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH SOME THE HEATING PREFRONTAL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES IN THE HIGHLANDS, WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE RAIN SHOWERS.
BIT WARMER ON TUE. BUT WILL SEE MUCH WARMER WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.
/ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. THE UPPER PATTERN REALLY CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.
937 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS TENNESSEE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SCT SHWRS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE MID LVLS AND HIGHER A TROUGH STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NORTH BY 00Z WITH FRONT HEADING TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE REGION.
925 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AROUND THE L. AN LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN THIS AREA THRU TUE THEN DRIFT INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM INTO THE LOW 100S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE. RIDGING SHOULD START TO WEAKEN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
MAYBE A TAD COOLER ON TEMPERATURES AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL 2-3 DEGREES C OVER TODAY.
THIS TROF WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES.
736 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WITH STORMS.
648 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY THAT WILL MARK A TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL TO DOWNRIGHT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BOUNDARY MIXED OVER NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT WARMER FOR LOWS.
1146 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY THAT WILL MARK A TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL TO DOWNRIGHT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BOUNDARY MIXED OVER NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT WARMER FOR LOWS.
THESE HILL COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE. WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MAY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITHOUT GOOD MIXING TO HELP BREAK IT UP. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE. WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
950 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID- WEEK. BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND.
THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GET FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AND SHIFTED EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH READINGS STILL CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES /MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/ NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER. A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.
627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS MODERATES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST RETREATING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER.
1125 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing over the eastern U. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced northwesterly flow over the central U. Tonight - Tuesday: This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning. A more westerly boundary layer will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the southwestern third of the CWA.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. STORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES.
706 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
BROAD TROUGHINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER SHORT WAVE CENTER AND BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION. AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, IN THE MORNING, WILL EXPECT THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH SOME THE HEATING PREFRONTAL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES IN THE HIGHLANDS, WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHER THAN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF AREA 30/18Z-30/24Z IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION PATTERN 30/12Z- 30/24Z. THIS AREA LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK COVERAGE MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. 29/12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE UPPER HIGH CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT. HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS DEPICTED A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON.
THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND A BIT WARMER AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING JET. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 86 69 83 / 30 60 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 84 66 81 / 40 60 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 84 67 80 / 40 60 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 80 62 77 / 40 60 60 60.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO TEXAS.
/ISSUED 155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE LOW CLOUDS.
/ISSUED 229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN THE MEMPHIS AREA AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL A BIT AS ANOTHER PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE NORTH.
919 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
727 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE WEEKEND.
615 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WAS TRYING TO BUILD IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY MILD TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM TEMPS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY 00Z TONIGHT.
432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER.
557 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION IS COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THRU OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE REPLACED WITH POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE. WE REMAIN IN A TROUGHY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE TRANSLATING THRU THE FLOW BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN. SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE/SW THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA.
FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS CURRENTLY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GULF REGION UP THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN U.
THE LINGERING QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS SE OK/N TX. SHEAR VALUES BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF SWINGING OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
UPSTREAM TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. VORT LOBE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS MANAGED TO TAP INTO SOME ERN PACIFIC MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ARRIVES LATE EVENING. GUIADANCE IS SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
602 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Quick update to allow for the expiration of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. /issued 213 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ Upper trough over AZ/NM this morning lifting quickly NE today. A secondary trough swings down across the 4 Corners region Friday. After that high pressure builds in from the west bringing mild wx to the region. The upper trough has pushed a Pacific front through the region today with a brisk west wind in its wake. By this afternoon the wind was pushing the low level moisture from the region. will leave the High Wind Warning in effect until 00Z.
851 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST IS NOW USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
925 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS MAINE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW A DECENT POCKET OF COLD AIR WITH THIS LITTLE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
703 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
635 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE WEEKEND.
A low pressure system will bring breezy conditions this weekend, as well as rain and mountain snow.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST EXPECTED.
750 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW A DECENT POCKET OF COLD AIR WITH THIS LITTLE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE STATE BRINGING DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOK OUT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND MAKE SURE TO PROTECT WHATEVER NEEDS PROTECTING. THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE WET AND SNOWY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AZ IS QUICKLY HEADING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH LITTLE OTHER IMPACT. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 3000-5500 FOOT RANGE THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN HIGH ELEVATION SPOTS THAT SAW A LOT OF MELTING SNOW TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A 592DAM CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOSING IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. THEY ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE RECENT PESKY CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LED TO RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING AT LEAST TIED AT MERIDIAN AND HATTIESBURG AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH OUR CWA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT NEARS OUR CWA.
655 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AFTER ANOTHER MILD NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.
543 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OMAHA AND LINCOLN AREAS AT 1 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROFFING LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AREA WIDE QUICKLY.
913 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has progressed. Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend.
927 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 77 61 65 / 20 60 90 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 76 57 63 / 20 40 90 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 76 59 62 / 20 60 90 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 76 58 63 / 10 40 90 80.