Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures Sunday afternoon will reach the low 80s across most of the region, slightly cooler along the coasts and Barrier Islands. Fog development will cease with the passage of the next cold front Monday, as drier and colder air mass moves into the local waters. Lastly, dew points will warm into the lower 70's at KGLS by 22z.
Drier air associated with the high, will allow much of the area to become mostly clear for much of the day Sunday.
Some light freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain remains possible near the OK/KS border later tonight as indicated by the going forecast, with no impacts expected as only very minor accumulations on elevated surfaces is anticipated. Temperatures will be near or slightly below freezing in areas northwest of Tulsa, where light freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle will be possible. There will probably be a brief lull in the precipitation Sunday evening before chances once again begin to increase late Sunday night into Monday as main upper trough swings into the Central Plains. Areas of freezing rain/drizzle will remain possible along/north of I-44 with some very light ice accumulations possible. Precipitation will likely transition to a mix of light freezing drizzle/light snow by Monday afternoon on the backside of system with light snow accumulations possible near the Oklahoma/Kansas state line.
1056 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Cooler air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
107 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures Sunday into Monday.
Terminals KWWR and KPNC would have freezing temperatures, with light freezing drizzle to rain possible.
Analysis charts show a weak mid-level ridge over the area with a trough over central CONUS. The trough is expected to move downstream and into our region on Monday. Temperatures are currently in the low-to-mid 40s. A weak cold front will move through the area this evening and reinforce the seasonably cool airmass in place. This boundary will become a more defined warm front to our south early Sunday and advance northward into part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. The frontal boundary will sweep through as a cold front across the rest of the forecast area Monday evening, so the chance of rain and thunderstorms will decrease behind the front as strong cold advection takes place.
For Today, ridge of high pressure will move east of the are late. This high pressure will produce dry and mild conditions over the region. For Tonight, a strong upper level jet will move across the lower Ohio valley and western sections of the Tennessee valley. The pressure falls combined with the strong ridging into the southeast United States will tighten the pressure gradient over the southern Appalachians/east Tennessee. The low-level inversion will keep the strongest winds localized across the higher terrain, such as the Smoky Mountains.
155 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Cooler air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
High temperatures Sunday afternoon will reach the low 80s across most of the region, slightly cooler along the coasts and Barrier Islands. Fog development will cease with the passage of the next cold front Monday, as drier and colder air mass moves into the local waters.
The weekend cold will persist for the early part of the new work week as an upper level trough/northwest flow continues to pull Canadian air southward. The GFS and EC remain in good agreement with upper level short/long wave ridging to build in for the later half of the week, with moderating to mild temperatures resulting.
1148 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Cooler air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
1039 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures Sunday into Monday.
Radar imagery and surface obs this evening show some light rain and drizzle has developed across much of the area ahead of a cold front current moving across our northwest zones. Also added patchy fog to the area overnight as dewpoint depressions are already on the low side, although the northwest winds behind the front will help to alleviate this somewhat. A warm front moves south to north tomorrow afternoon before a rather strong cold front after 00Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front overnight tomorrow night.
1049 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 A period of MVFR ceilings not out of the question at KCDS Sunday morning mainly between 12Z and 18Z behind a weak cold front. A cold front will being to push into the region ahead of the trough tomorrow afternoon. Monday will be noticably cooler with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
/issued 804 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019/ The trailing edge of the cold front that moved through the area earlier today is now located over the Florida Keys. Latest surface observations and satellite imagery are showing clear skies and cooler temps for most of west central and southwest Florida. Current reported temperatures are coming in 5-10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Winds and seas will continue to decrease overnight as high pressure builds into the area.
An upper trough moving across the Rockies will elevate winds in the mountains and nearby adjacent plains west of the Pecos River. Once this trough passes, a cold front will move through the CWA early Monday dropping temperatures to much more seaonal levels.
320 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures Sunday into Monday.
341 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures today into Monday.
A cold front will make progress into the area on Sunday afternoon and evening to shift winds around to the northeast. /issued 522 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/ /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals through Sunday afternoon, ahead of a strong cold front that will affect most areas after sunset Sunday evening. A cold front will be located near the Red River around midday Sunday. Temperatures across the northern Big Country may slowly fall by late afternoon, as the cold front slowly moves through the region.
At the surface, high pressure will veer low-level winds to south/southeasterly.
Overall pattern has one trough moving through the area producing a few light sprinkles which will be out of the area this evening. At the surface a cold front will extend from southern Texas into central Kentucky.
142 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Split flow will persist in the period with NW flow continuing locally into early this week, before deep layer ridging supports very mild conds. Mean ridging is forecast the remainder of the week with warming temps.
Winds will be mainly light westerly through the period as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Tennessee valley for today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 48 66 47 49 / 10 30 50 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 46 65 48 51 / 0 20 50 90 40 Oak Ridge, TN 52 46 64 46 49 / 10 30 50 100 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 39 63 48 51 / 10 10 40 100 60.
309 AM PST Sun Dec 15 2019 High pressure builds overhead early this week for quieter weather.
A cold front will move south across area late this afternoon and tonight, shifting winds from the northeast at the terminals. /issued 308 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Expect very warm temperatures across much of West Central Texas today due to low level west-southwest flow and a thermal ridge. A cold front will move south into the northern Big Country by mid afternoon, cooling temperatures into the 60s. The cold front will continue south across West Central Texas tonight and will be south of the area by 12Z Monday.
An upper level system will usher in cooler air, light precipitation, and gusty desert winds through this afternoon.
308 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 (Today and Tonight) Expect very warm temperatures across much of West Central Texas today due to low level west-southwest flow and a thermal ridge. A cold front will move south into the northern Big Country by mid afternoon, cooling temperatures into the 60s. The cold front will continue south across West Central Texas tonight and will be south of the area by 12Z Monday.
The weekend cold will persist for the early part of the new work week as an upper level trough/northwest flow continues to pull Canadian air southward. The GFS and EC remain in good agreement with upper level short/long wave ridging to build in for the later half of the week, with moderating to mild temperatures resulting. Increasing cloud cover will be seen today into tonight as a weak trough of low pressure tracks east out of the Plains into the area.
Northwest winds will continue to decrease today as high pressure builds in.
715 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 High pressure is currently centered over the state, with some patchy fog in place. High pressure will shift east to over the Atlantic through this afternoon and evening, shifting winds to the E/SE.
Temperatures will begin their gradual warming trend Monday as warmer westerly winds begin to push into the area. However, ridging ultimately prevails and subsidence and drying dominate causing cloudy skies to become partly cloudy from north to south. Temperatures will begin their gradual warming trend Monday as warmer westerly winds begin to push into the area.
Temperatures will begin their gradual warming trend Monday as warmer westerly winds begin to push into the area.
531 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 Updated for the 12Z TAF cycle Low CIGS are on the increase from south to north as a warm front pushes northward across Arkansas. A strong cold front will then enter the northern portion of the forecast area late in the TAF period bringing northerly winds, and lowering CIGS/VSBYS. Today Through Monday For today, a warm front over southern Arkansas will move northward causing low clouds to develop and spread south to north in the wake of the progressive front.
638 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures today into Monday.
Across mountain ridges and passes, wind chills will reach the -20s.
For the rest of southeastern Arizona, expect cooler and drier weather today. Much cooler conditions are expected for the first part of the upcoming week with cold morning low temperatures.
Overview: An upper level trough digging ESE from the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin this morning will progress slowly east across the Intermountain West/Rockies (today-tonight) and Central/Southern Plains (Mon-Mon night). Low visibilities in freezing fog have slowly but steadily improved since 09Z -- presumably in assoc/w increasing cloud cover and light precipitation (or virga). Mon-Mon night: Expect a gradual clearing trend late Mon afternoon into Mon night -- in association with synoptic subsidence in the wake of the upper trough -- as it progresses slowly ESE of the Tri-State area.
Today Through Monday For today, a warm front over southern Arkansas will move northward causing low clouds to develop and spread south to north in the wake of the progressive front.
Expect that north winds will develop this morning as cold high pressure builds south into the area. Much cooler conditions expected across the entire forecast area today, with Oklahoma Panhandle and roughly the northern half of Texas Panhandle remaining below 40 degrees. Patchy freezing drizzle expected this morning across northern sections. Much colder tonight with lows mainly in the lower-20s, except for the northwest with mid- to upper-teens, and southeast with mid- 20s.
Gusty north winds will develop later today ushering in cooler temperatures.
A low pressure trough will persist over much of the western U. A few smaller weather disturbances will move through this trough and track across the Northern Rockies the next 24 hours resulting in scattered snow showers.
Southwest winds will decrease this evening ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to impact the northern terminals on and after 16/06z tonight. An upper trough moving across the Rockies will elevate winds in the mountains and nearby adjacent plains west of the Pecos River. Once this trough passes, a cold front will move through the CWA early Monday dropping temperatures to much more seasonal levels.
350 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 The main weather story for today will be the arrival at some point of the cold front followed by a couple of days of temperatures below normal. By Noon, the high-resolution models have the front just into the northern part of the South Plains stretching into the central Rolling Plains. Lack of high clouds also means there will be plenty of sunshine as well to warm temperatures so there is a potential that we could see readings in the low to mid 70s should the front take a slower timing.
The end result is sunny skies the rest of today with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s for highs although some spots along the Treasure Coast back into Okeechobee will likely reach the upper 70s. Northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots will veer easterly today as high pressure over northern Florida slides east.
Quiet conditions are expected for today and tomorrow as high pressure sits over the area. Mostly sunny skies will give way to more clouds tonight as a low pressure system passes to the south. The dry air associated with the high pressure is expected to keep precipitation south of the area, but flurries can't be completely ruled out along the state line as 850mb convergence may briefly overcome the dry air. Clouds will linger into Monday, but temperatures will be warmer with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s.
539 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 Increasing cloud cover ahead of a short wave working into the plains has kept temperatures overnight much warmer than anticipated.
353 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 Increasing cloud cover ahead of a short wave working into the plains has kept temperatures overnight much warmer than anticipated.
436 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Scattered snow showers should end today as high pressure builds in.
529 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 A cold front slowly moving into the area is expected to stall out near KCDS. Winds will likely remain out of the west at KLBB and KPVW with the cold front stopping short of these terminals. /issued 350 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ The main weather story for today will be the arrival at some point of the cold front followed by a couple of days of temperatures below normal. By Noon, the high-resolution models have the front just into the northern part of the South Plains stretching into the central Rolling Plains. Lack of high clouds also means there will be plenty of sunshine as well to warm temperatures so there is a potential that we could see readings in the low to mid 70s should the front take a slower timing.
557 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Scattered snow showers should end today as high pressure builds in.
High pressure will build across the region for the first half of the work week.
347 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Overview: An upper level trough digging ESE from the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin this morning will progress slowly east across the Intermountain West/Rockies (today-tonight) and Central/Southern Plains (Mon-Mon night). Low visibilities in freezing fog have slowly but steadily improved since 09Z -- presumably in assoc/w increasing cloud cover and light precipitation (or virga). Mon-Mon night: Expect a gradual clearing trend late Mon afternoon into Mon night -- in association with synoptic subsidence in the wake of the upper trough -- as it progresses slowly ESE of the Tri-State area.
This snow should be on the way out through the next few hours as lift from the weak upper level trough moves off the east. With snow moving out, high pressure is expected to move in this morning. Temperatures will be a bit more chilly as cold arctic air wraps in behind the area of high pressure. Windchills should be no factor for most spots given the high pressure aloft and weak surface winds as a result. Monday will be a bit warmer than Sunday but temperatures are not expected to improve more than a few degrees as the core of the Arctic high moves overhead.
319 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Overview: An upper level trough digging ESE from the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin this morning will progress slowly east across the Intermountain West/Rockies (today-tonight) and Central/Southern Plains (Mon-Mon night). Low visibilities in freezing fog have slowly but steadily improved since 09Z -- presumably in assoc/w increasing cloud cover and light precipitation (or virga). Mon-Mon night: Expect a gradual clearing trend late Mon afternoon into Mon night -- in association with synoptic subsidence in the wake of the upper trough -- as it progresses slowly ESE of the Tri-State area.
346 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Split flow will persist in the period with NW flow continuing locally into early this week, before deep layer ridging supports very mild conds. Mean ridging is forecast the remainder of the week with warming temps.
High pressure overhead this morning, will move to the east this afternoon. With winds becoming more onshore, temperatures will be cooler near the coast this afternoon, as coastal water temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s. Readings will reach the lower to mid 70s inland NE FL, and mid to upper 60s coastal NE FL this afternoon.
High pressure across the area while low pressure moves through the southern Ohio Valley region. Northwest winds will continue to decrease today as high pressure builds in.
A cold front is stretched across North Texas this afternoon and will drop southward tonight moving into our CWA. Behind the front winds will become northerly and bring cooler, drier air.
100 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through Monday.
Storm total snow remains in the half to 2 inch range, with the higher amounts in the southern forecast area, near Sioux City IA.
This high was providing mostly to partly sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Yesterday's cold front has stalled over the central Bahamas and Cuba, with its western flank already returning to the north over the Western Caribbean.
This added cloud cover, moving across the area tonight, will likely keep temperatures from dropping to the lowest guidance; however, there are some decent breaks in the cloud cover sliding across northern MN. Monday Night Through Sunday Surface-based low pressure over the Plains States will continue to strengthen and expand east. Temperatures will stay cold in the western Great Lakes region for the next few days as the system integrates with broader low pressure in Canada and northerly winds persist in our region as a result.
Amounts may be slightly higher in northeast NE and the Sioux City area closer to the low-level forcing. Increasing cloud cover ahead of a short wave working into the plains has kept temperatures overnight much warmer than anticipated.
1010 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Split flow will persist in the period with NW flow continuing locally into early this week, before deep layer ridging supports very mild conds. Mean ridging is forecast the remainder of the week with warming temps.
249 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 Main areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle have begun to lift northeast of the region in association with strong upper level jet streak. Temperatures currently near freezing across northern portions of Osage and Washington counties. Areas of freezing drizzle will likely redevelop northwest of Tulsa tonight into Monday morning as upper wave approaches. Forecast point soundings indicate most of the precipitation will likely be freezing drizzle or brief periods of freezing rain given the lack of deeper saturation in the dendritic growth zone. Temperatures will likely be slowly falling through much day and any elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses could become slick and hazardous. There could also be a brief period of freezing drizzle across northwest Arkansas, however amounts appear less certain.
A rather moist mid level trof axis will drift across the area tonight.
Instead, the warm front that will be responsible for our overnight rainfall has come together to our southwest. By daybreak, the cold front should be breaking into our northwest counties, spreading these showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder southward into the I-40 corridor. By late tomorrow morning, the cold front could push back towards the KY state line. Due to the uncertainty of where the highest amounts of rainfall will occur, I'm going to hold off on any watches for now however, 2 to 3 inches of rain will be possible which could lead to localized flooding issues by Monday evening.
Another cold front is set to push south, across West Central Texas, tonight and Monday. This front won't bring rain; but, it will bring winds from the north, along with much cooler temperatures. Comparatively, highs on Monday will be some 20 to 30 degrees cooler than this afternoon and very close to usual mid December highs. As an upper trough finally exits the region mid week, an upper ridge will build over the Plains.
Latest hi-res guidance continues to show the warm front associated with tomorrow's system pulling into Middle TN late this afternoon. This morning's 12Z NAM is showing similar solutions to the last few runs, which is slowing the cold front down for several hours Monday morning. While storm movement should be rapid, storm motions are seemingly parallel to the cold front.
1028 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Following yesterday's cold frontal passage, temperatures and humidity have fallen steadily. Most locations along the island chain are near 70 with dewpoints in the lower 60s. High pressure centered over Florida will strengthen over the western North Atlantic tonight through Monday night.
A mixture with freezing rain will be possible in the southern half of central and southern Illinois, mainly along and south of Interstate 70.
135 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 What is left of a weak upper level trough will move across southern Colorado tonight. On Monday increasing mid and upper level stability will develop behind the exiting trough. Continued cooler than normal temperatures but more sunshine especially in the afternoon. By Monday evening, the upper trough will have shifted southeast bringing Colorado into northwest flow aloft.
We could see a mix of patchy fog/drizzle/showers through the morning hours ahead of an advancing cold front. Cold front should push through the area tonight and shift winds to the north.
Latest hi-res guidance continues to show the warm front associated with tomorrow's system pulling into Middle TN late this afternoon. This morning's 12Z NAM is showing similar solutions to the last few runs, which is slowing the cold front down for several hours Monday morning. While storm movement should be rapid, storm motions are seemingly parallel to the cold front. We begin the morning with weak high pressure still influencing the weather across Middle Tennessee. Expect the ceilings to gradually improve throughout the morning as a warm front develops across Middle Tennessee and winds increase from the south. Am including LLWS remarks for the overnight period owing to significant strengthening of the low-level jet.
258 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 After a warm and toasty day with near record highs across West Texas and southeast New Mexico, much cooler temperatures are in store to begin the work week. Current water vapor imagery depicts an elongated trof stretching from the Sierra Mtns into the Southern Plains. This trof will slowly progress eastward over the next 24-36 hrs and allow a cold air mass which is being held up just north of the region to sink southward. A cold front will slowly backdoor into the area overnight and cause temperatures to fall into the 30s across the northern Permian Basin while lows will dip into the 40s and 50s elsewhere.
254 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 The cold front stalled across our northern and eastern counties earlier this morning and is now beginning its push through the rest of the FA.