Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The main event during this portion of the forecast will be the Wednesday morning passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
High pressure will then bring a strong warming trend into the weekend. High pressure will then bring a strong warming trend the rest of the week.
834 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Wednesday with crossing low pressure.
May have to add flood a limited for flooding today, mainly across Central MS, where moisture transport was greatest and theta-e ridge has set up. A cold front will pass through the region Tuesday evening. As this front hangs up over the coast, a low pressure system will track across north Mexico and will continue to track east into Texas.
Lows between 30 and 35 will be common, but could see cooler temps if winds die off.
521 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Weak high pressure is building across the Mississippi Valley today. The sunshine combined with strong and gusty west wind should push temperatures up into the low to mid 60s across most of the area. Northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will be further back into the cooler air to the north, so upper 50s look more likely for those areas. Latest guidance keeps the low far enough south that it has little direct impact on the weather in Missouri and Illinois.
537 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated over northwest Mexico while another trough was situated over southwest Ontario with a broad NW mid/upper flow regime building into the Central Plains region. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will translate eastward across the area today bringing light winds and mostly sunny conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low 60s for most areas. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, radiational cooling may allow some locations to fall below freezing while most areas see lows in the mid 30s. Light south/southwest winds will develop from west to east on Wednesday under sunny conditions allowing highs to climb above normal once again with readings in the lower 60s.
National Weather Service Paducah KY 400 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Still have some waning convection in our eastern counties well ahead of a sfc cold front that extends from central Indiana to the MO Bootheal. The sfc cold front will continue moving east making it all the way through the area by mid morning. For Wednesday: NW flow aloft will push a sfc/trough dry front through Wednesday morning veering winds to the northwest.
508 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A cold front is dropping SE through the state. Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front is currently progressing SE through the CWA early this Tue morning. An upper level closed low to the SW of the state will begin slowly lifting ENE towards AR tonight into Wed. This upper closed low will move east over SRN sections of the state Wed night. mainly across far SRN sections of the state under the closed low.
This will maintain the southerly flow of warm humid air into the area leading to some fog late night/early morning fog the next two days with the potential for some sea fog, especially off the Nature Coast where water temperatures are cooler.
This line will slowly push ESE ahead of a cold front that is sliding into north- central MS.
A few tenths of an inch of wet snow is possible but should only impact grassy areas as temps hover near or just above freezing to start with slowly warming temps through the morning.
Upper level low pressure along the Sonora- Chihuahua border will continue east and slightly northeast passing about midway between the I-10 and I-20 corridors by late Wednesday. RMAC Upper level high pressure will approach and pass late in the week leading to a warmer, drier period.
The High Wind Warnings have been expanded and extended to cover this threat through the next 24 hours. The westerly downslope winds and high pressure to the west will keep the weather dry for the next several days. Headline Changes: Added Cheyenne and Eastern Platte to the high Wind Warning which now runs through 11 pm Wednesday evening. Winds will slow starting late wednesday night behind a cold front as gradients relax and upper air support shifts to the north and east.
216 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Moisture advection will promote showers ahead of a cold front which will move through late in the day. The front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 61 46 54 39 / 10 40 60 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 61 44 54 39 / 10 20 40 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 40 62 43 54 39 / 10 20 40 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 58 39 53 37 / 20 10 20 60 40.
1218 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Moisture advection will promote showers ahead of a cold front which will move through late in the day. The front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night.
1251 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A cold front passage moved all showers out of the area earlier today.
326 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 An upper level trough continues to rotate eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon.
354 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Low pressure tracking through the eastern Grt Lks will push a trailing cold front through central Pa this evening, punctuated by rumbles of thunder.
But the more widespread precipitation will be later as the closed upper low over northeastern Sonora moves east toward Chihuahua and eventually Texas. The model trends continue the trend of keeping the heaviest precipitation south of our area, and keeping the widespread precipitation confined to the southern edge of our forecast area and south from there, which makes sense given the expected track of the upper low and the trajectories around it.
229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Upper low currently moving across northern Mexico will track into far west TX by Wed morning and through the Arklatex region Wednesday night.
255 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Crossing low pressure will provide a few chances for mainly rain showers through Wednesday.
Temperatures have bounced back into the lower 60s across the forecast area.
217 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Low pressure tracking through the eastern Grt Lks will push a trailing cold front through central Pa this evening, punctuated by rumbles of thunder.
Latest models are indicating more wind potential for this afternoon, and it's possible that the High Wind Warning that is currently in effect for only Harding county may need to be expanded. 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY. Activity will be mostly rain on the plains by late morning and mostly snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills where a couple inches of accumulation may occur.
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 1112 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Still have some waning convection in our eastern counties well ahead of a sfc cold front that extends from central Indiana to the MO Bootheal. The sfc cold front will continue moving east making it all the way through the area by mid morning. For Wednesday: NW flow aloft will push a sfc/trough dry front through Wednesday morning veering winds to the northwest.
High pressure building over the region and northerly offshore flow will maintain a warming trend through Wednesday. A cooling trend is forecast through the second half of the week as winds shift back onshore and an upper level trough approaches. Rain chances return to the region over the weekend as a cold front moves across the district. An upper level ridge building aloft and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain dry, northerly offshore flow across the region today. High pressure over the area will keep skies mostly clear. The ridge growing will be brief as the next system starts to approach the Pacific Northwest late in the week. As the next trough moves closer to the coast, winds will slowly shift to be onshore, and drive cooler afternoon temperatures for the end of the work week.
1257 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Wednesday with crossing low pressure.
Surface temperatures southwest have remained in the low/mid 30s resulting in mainly snow there. Strong WAA on Wednesday ahead of the next clipper coupled with good mixing along to west of a warm front will result in very mild temperatures during the day. Cold front moves south into the region Wed afternoon along with increased forcing aloft as a strong mid level wave drops south into the region and jet dynamics increase.
241 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the cold front that is currently pushing through the TN Valley. Lows will be cooler, in the mid to upper 40s.
Models remain in good agreement with the timing of the next upper low as it approaches from the west. The high- est rainfall totals will likely be north of Houston proper (generally along and north of a Brenham to Lake Livingston line) given the broad divergence aloft and the track of this rather well-defined upper low. As this low moves out to the east Wed night, we should be seeing POPs decrease as its associated cold front finally moves across the state. Any lingering wraparound clouds/moisture with this low are progged to be out of the area by Thurs morning.
Also, warmer air at precipitation onset could lead to a bit more rain or a bit less snow sticking, which could keep amounts a bit lower. The snow is expected to exit by early Wednesday morning, with surface ridging building in and leading to a quiet day with decreasing clouds and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. While the low and a bulk of the precipitation look to remain north of the forecast area, similar to this morning, an associated cold front looks to slide through and produce some light precipitation (snow transitioning to rain). In addition, the low looks to be much farther south than the one from this morning, so would expect some precipitation to linger in northern parts of the forecast area through the day.
While moisture is rather limited, expect scattered coverage showers with the passage of this trough with perhaps a bit of graupel in the strongest convective cells given freezing levels aob 2kft. With temperatures climbing from the lower 30s to mid/upper 30s Wednesday morning, do not expect any accumulating snow at this time. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday, but still reach the 40s area-wide and mid 40s from roughly Detroit south.
123 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Water vapor shows short wave trof moving through the western Dakotas, with next upstream wave of significance (embedded within the west/northwest flow) over BC. Surface analysis shows cold front pushing through northwest SD and northeast WY, with a recent gust of 59 mph at K2WX. Current wind highlights look good, but will continue to monitor to ensure the High Wind Warning for Harding doesn't need to be expanded. Even warmer temps expected with highs in the 50s to lower 60s on the plains. Strong upper ridge builds through the Rockies and northern plains behind Wednesday's departing wave.
1153 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated over northwest Mexico while another trough was situated over southwest Ontario with a broad NW mid/upper flow regime building into the Central Plains region. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will translate eastward across the area today bringing light winds and mostly sunny conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low 60s for most areas. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, radiational cooling may allow some locations to fall below freezing while most areas see lows in the mid 30s. Light south/southwest winds will develop from west to east on Wednesday under sunny conditions allowing highs to climb above normal once again with readings in the lower 60s.
For Wednesday, surface ridging will remain the main weather feature producing dry conditions most locations.
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Weak high pressure is building across the Mississippi Valley today. The sunshine combined with strong and gusty west wind should push temperatures up into the low to mid 60s across most of the area. Northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will be further back into the cooler air to the north, so upper 50s look more likely for those areas. Latest guidance keeps the low far enough south that it has little direct impact on the weather in Missouri and Illinois.
Tonight and Wednesday Closed upper low over Mexico will track eastward tonight into southwest Texas allowing for some light rain to spread north and east into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. The closed upper low will continue ejecting eastward into central Texas Wednesday with the light rain shifting south out of the forecast area Wednesday.
MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail through morning as convection continues ahead of a cold front. This cold front will pass through the region this afternoon. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 47 61 46 54 / 70 10 30 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 42 61 44 54 / 80 10 20 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 66 40 62 43 54 / 80 10 10 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 37 58 39 53 / 80 20 10 20 60.
/Tonight through Wednesday night/ Shallow cold front associated with a nrn stream trof passing to our n has made it across our entire region this aftn. Isentropic lift from increasingly swly flow aloft ahead of the upper low over nwrn Mexico will continue to provide the chance for some light shwrs through the overnight hours. However, coverage of convection will increase dramatically in the hours prior to sunrise Wednesday as the upper low moves into the Big Bend region of TX. Widespread shwrs and a few thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night, although intensity Wednesday night will likely decrease as the upper low moves ovhd and the greatest forcing shifts well e of our region. A cooler airmass will begin to filter in as the upper low moves ovhd Wednesday night, so expect min temps to run near normal.
1033 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Wednesday with crossing low pressure.
1214 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Mild temperatures and occasional rain showers can be expected through early Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
Late this evening and tonight, a quick moving low level trough will move across northeastern Kansas. Tomorrow should be similar to today, although high clouds will begin to move into our sky as a closed low currently located in northwestern Mexico scoots across Texas.
1031 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Strengthening low pressure will track northeast across the eastern Grt Lks today, with the trailing cold front coming through central Pa this evening.
Southern stream upper low has migrated slowly eastward over northern MX with an active high level downstream westerly flow aloft setting up over the central Gulf coast and southeast US. As forcing increases as the upper trough ejects toward the area, a southwesterly low level jet will also increase and some bowing segments near the surface front will be possible, resulting in locally damaging wind gusts. Fog remains favored over the cooler waters of bays, sounds and near shore waters with visibilities potentially dropping below 1 nm.
835 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Crossing low pressure will provide a few chances for mainly rain showers through Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only BKN/OVC high clouds as upper low shifts east into Texas. /Issued 229 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020/ Upper low currently moving across northern Mexico will track into far west TX by Wed morning and through the Arklatex region Wednesday night.
327 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Cold front has pushed south of the area. Over the next 48 hours an upper low will slowly move east from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley.
316 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A low pressure system north of the international border will continue to propagate to the east this evening. Surface ridging begins to build in and aides in clearing out the skies briefly until our next system begins to encroach from the north.
202 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Large upper ridge will move from the western CONUS and across the central plains through the end of the week. Cold front will move through Wednesday night with a brief period of gusty northwest winds.
Cold front will move south across the forecast area Thu. Upper level ridge amplifies in the west and shifts over the Northern Plains Fri. Sat - Tue Upper level ridge continues to shift east this period with warm air moving into the area on Sat. Short wave to move across central Canada and will send a shot of cooler air out of Canada on Sun. Cooler air will be possible for Sun and Mon with some moderation by Tue.
Cold front will move south across the forecast area Thu. Upper level ridge amplifies in the west and shifts over the Northern Plains Fri. Sat - Tue Upper level ridge continues to shift east this period with warm air moving into the area on Sat. Short wave to move across central Canada and will send a shot of cooler air out of Canada on Sun. Cooler air will be possible for Sun and Mon with some moderation by Tue. High pressure will move southeast and be over the Red River valley 06z-09z period.
633 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Low pressure tracking through the eastern Grt Lks will push a trailing cold front through central Pa this evening, punctuated by rumbles of thunder.
However, cloud cover will be increased Wednesday, keeping temperatures a little cooler with highs in the mid 50s.
333 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Large upper ridge will move from the western CONUS and across the central plains through the end of the week. Cold front will move through Wednesday night with a brief period of gusty northwest winds.
601 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Upper low currently located well south of El Paso, remaining over northern Mexico this evening. Isentropic conveyor belt in full swing to the east and northeast of the upper low, but nearly all of the rain will stay away from the Panhandles. Tonight and Wednesday Closed upper low over Mexico will track eastward tonight into southwest Texas allowing for some light rain to spread north and east into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. The closed upper low will continue ejecting eastward into central Texas Wednesday with the light rain shifting south out of the forecast area Wednesday.
The higher probabilities for low clouds based on latest hi res models and regional observations are north of the metro. While moisture is rather limited, expect scattered coverage showers with the passage of this trough with perhaps a bit of graupel in the strongest convective cells given freezing levels aob 2kft. With temperatures climbing from the lower 30s to mid/upper 30s Wednesday morning, do not expect any accumulating snow at this time. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday, but still reach the 40s area-wide and mid 40s from roughly Detroit south.
Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the cold front that is currently pushing through the TN Valley. Lows will be cooler, in the mid to upper 40s.
These showers will bring some light snow accumulations in the higher terrain. The next feature is a weak cold front that will cause strong and gusty westerly winds. As the cold front moves southward throughout the night into the morning, expect strong westerly winds throughout western Montana.
On Wednesday weak mid-level ridging brings a temporary respite to precipitation, although warm/moist advection will likely generate a fair amount of cloud cover.
This will be followed by increasing chances of thunderstorms during Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure approaches the region from Texas. For the rest of the forecast, raised chances of showers a bit this afternoon as development has finally commenced ahead of the approaching cold front across NE TX/N LA. Possible limitation will be the cooler marine layer that will persist due to the cooler shelf waters, with some areas of marine fog likely during this time. Still some uncertainly on where the maximum rainfall maximums will occur, could be very well north of the region if the low tracks further north than expected.
523 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 A front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night.
513 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 High pressure, mostly clear skies and surface dewpoints largely in the low to mid-20s have resulted in temperatures well into the 50s to near 60 degrees this afternoon. A couple of hi-res solutions hint at isolated showers in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois along the trough as the upper wave passes overhead. However, moisture profiles are rather convincing with the lowest 10k feet remaining rather dry. Two things could keep temperatures a touch cooler: initial northwesterly flow behind the overnight wave and potential cloud cover that streams in from the southern upper level system during the late afternoon into the late night period.
653 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Windy conditions are expected through this evening, behind a cold front that has moved east through the area.
A weak cold front will push south across western Kansas very late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but it will be largely unnoticed with a wind shift to the north and an increase in speed to 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures on Wednesday will be very similar to this afternoon in the lower 60s.
High pressure building over the region and northerly offshore flow will maintain a warming trend through Wednesday. A cooling trend is forecast through the second half of the week as winds shift back onshore and an upper level trough approaches. Rain chances return to the region over the weekend as a cold front moves across the district. The warming trend continues today as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region and a thermal trough sets up along the coast. Clear skies and offshore flow will continue Wednesday as high pressure prevails.
856 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 A front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night.
A cold front passage moved all showers out of the area earlier today.
A weak cold front will slide southward across Kansas for tonight with some thicker high clouds spreading over southern Kansas during the day on Wednesday. The high cloud canopy could hamper daytime highs a bit during the day on Wednesday across southern Kansas.
706 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 A cold front with gusty wind will push through eastern PA in short order.
Despite warmer than normal temperatures during the afternoon, clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to cool below seasonal norms by sunrise Wednesday. Dry, mild weather will continue through the end of the work week as a ridge of high pressure forms over the Mountain West with temperatures climbing 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
714 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 A front will stall just to our south tonight and Wednesday then remain nearly stationary or return north some as a warm front Wednesday night.
217 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Large upper ridge will move from the western CONUS and across the central plains through the end of the week. Cold front will move through Wednesday night with a brief period of gusty northwest winds.
An upper level trough continues to rotate eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon.
441 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 Low pressure tracking through the eastern Grt Lks will push a trailing cold front through central Pa this evening, punctuated by rumbles of thunder.
256 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 Quiet weather continues in the short term with the upper low over old Mexico passing well to our south, putting southern CO under northwest flow aloft. A weak front moves through southeast Colorado this evening as a northern stream trof ejects from MT/WY into the plains. For Wednesday, even warmer temperatures are expected as northwest flow aloft increases and lee trof develops and deepens in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect a nice warm day for much of the area with highs in the 60s across the plains, mid 40s and 50s for the valleys and lower mountain communities, and 20s and 30s for the high country.