Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level trough which impacted the region yesterday is moving NE into central MT. A warm front will bring increased clouds on Tuesday with a chance of showers north of Baker City and McCall.
High pressure will dominate the weather during the overnight hours as mainly dry conditions will prevail. Low temperatures across the region tonight will range from the lower 70s across the interior sections to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas. This same area of high pressure will remain in place for Tuesday allowing for another warm day across South Florida.
Building high pressure over the region will provide warmer temperatures and dry conditions through the week.
The dry and cool air associated with this pattern will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the high country tonight.
A warming and drying trend will follow for the remainder of the week as high pressure moves across the Great Basin.
Cooler weather with afternoon gusty winds will persist through Tuesday, before southeastern Arizona starts heating back up. Another nice early June day with temperatures mostly in the 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations. As of 2 pm the high in Ajo so far was a pleasant 84F. Lighter winds Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures as upper heights rise.
1033 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure will drift offshore tonight and set up over the Atlantic on Tuesday.
725 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Upper ridging from the Atlantic Coast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will continue to break down as the wave associated with Cristobal migrates northward across the lower-mid Mississippi Valley. Into the afternoon, isolated to scattered storms are expected to fire along a warm front as well as the higher terrain, away from the greater upper level forcing associated with the troughing farther west.
As of 21Z Monday afternoon general midlevel ridging was present across the eastern CONUS with troughing across the west. A large disparity in temperature is expected across the area by afternoon with areas in far north-central KS will cool into the 70s, whereas areas in east-central KS will warm in the low to mid 90s.
The evening surface analysis shows a weak stationary boundary to our south and a left over tropical system churning across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Upper ridging from the Atlantic Coast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will continue to break down as the wave associated with Cristobal migrates northward across the lower-mid Mississippi Valley. Into the afternoon, isolated to scattered storms are expected to fire along a warm front as well as the higher terrain, away from the greater upper level forcing associated with the troughing farther west.
A north breeze will linger into Tuesday within the lower Colorado River Valley, elsewhere calmer winds are expected.
Forecast Confidence is As high pressure moves by to our north, skies will remain clear through tonight and into the morning hours on Tuesday.
652 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 "Quiet before the storm" tonight as mid-level ridge of high pressure holds across the area.
222 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Temperatures will be cool for Tuesday but warmer than Monday's lows while winds remain light.
Tornado threat has been limited by relatively weak (for a tropical cyclone) directional shear. Brief local gusts to 40 mph still not out of the question near showers and thunderstorms, as some momentum of the low level jet is brought to the surface. A cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
As we head into tomorrow a zonal flow pattern sets up and a weak front washes out as a ridging builds over the northwest Tuesday night.
801 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 The evening surface analysis shows a weak stationary boundary to our south and a left over tropical system churning across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Upper ridging from the Atlantic Coast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will continue to break down as the wave associated with Cristobal migrates northward across the lower-mid Mississippi Valley. Into the afternoon, isolated to scattered storms are expected to fire along a warm front as well as the higher terrain, away from the greater upper level forcing associated with the troughing farther west.
637 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure will persist across the area through this evening. A warm front will lift north of the area on Tuesday, bringing warm and humid air along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures and possible precipitation chances return late this week.
240 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2020 Warmer high temperatures, though still below normal, can be expected Tuesday along with lingering breeziness.
An upper trough will emerge off the Rockies tonight.
Rain chances will continue to decrease as the week progresses and a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. A deep late season trough will dig into the Plains from the northern Rockies on Tuesday.
An incoming warm front will lift snow levels to over 8500 ft MSL by Tuesday afternoon.
938 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will become more active along the cold frontal boundary in the eastern Dakotas tonight as several vort centers move northeast in the flow aloft. Otherwise a cold front across southeast North Dakota will move east tonight leaving a weak high pressure to the west. However a rather disjointed h500 flow will bring a weak trough through the region late tonight and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation highlight the short term period. On Tuesday, a S/WV trough will swing east into the Northern Plains, and should spark scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler for Tuesday and breezy, with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s.
849 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 South/southwest flow continues this evening across the region as weak ridging extends over the peninsula from the western Atlantic.
Otherwise a cold front across southeast North Dakota will move east tonight leaving a weak high pressure to the west. However a rather disjointed h500 flow will bring a weak trough through the region late tonight and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation highlight the short term period. On Tuesday, a S/WV trough will swing east into the Northern Plains, and should spark scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler for Tuesday and breezy, with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s.
Though light and gentle breezes prevail across the Keys waters this evening, the Pulley Ridge buoy (42097) in the southeast Gulf is observing a 4-foot swell from the west-southwest. A broad ridge axis extending west from the Bermuda high will lay across Central Florida for most of this week.
413 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 As of 21Z Monday afternoon general midlevel ridging was present across the eastern CONUS with troughing across the west. A large disparity in temperature is expected across the area by afternoon with areas in far north-central KS will cool into the 70s, whereas areas in east-central KS will warm in the low to mid 90s.
130 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020 A weak trough will linger over the area through Wednesday.
Tornado threat has been limited by relatively weak (for a tropical cyclone) directional shear. Brief local gusts to 40 mph still not out of the question near showers and thunderstorms, as some momentum of the low level jet is brought to the surface. A cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night. A back door cold front may lower the temperatures by a few degrees this weekend.
The remnants of Cristobal will continue to move up the Mississippi Valley and into the western Great Lakes Region during the short term period as an upper level trough moves east across the Great Plains.
139 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020 High pressure will result in dry weather through the middle of the week as it heads off the coast, but it will become more humid by Wednesday.
Severe storms appear unlikely with the exception of northwest AL, where the low level shear is greatest. SFC cold front moves through the Tennessee Valley during the day Wednesday from west to east. Cold front exits the area by Wednesday evening, hence ending any rain chances.
A ridge of high pressure will bring more seasonal temperatures by Wednesday and above average temperatures to finish off the work week.
/issued 849 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ South/southwest flow continues this evening across the region as weak ridging extends over the peninsula from the western Atlantic.
A warm front has been slowly lifting north through the TN Valley this evening, sparking a few showers along the way. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 88 64 84 / 50 40 60 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 73 89 64 84 / 40 20 60 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 73 89 63 83 / 40 20 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 88 62 81 / 40 20 60 40 10.
It appears that the next round of rain will begin early Wednesday morning, as Cristobal merges with an eastward moving cold front. This will be in response to the passage of Cristobal and the aforementioned cold front. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday with a good chance for showers and storms developing along the front as it pushes through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A brief period of clearing skies begins early this morning as the trough responsible for our recent round of wet weather moves eastward. Clearing skies will enable overnight low temperatures to drop to near-freezing levels this morning, making frost a concern. As today unfolds, flow shifts to zonal ahead of a broad ridge. By Wednesday afternoon, the broad ridge begins to amplify and we dry out by Wednesday night.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast period looks dry and cooler for the most part. The low associated with Cristobal will lift north into the area overnight which will make the winds light and variable. As the low lift north the rain will end from south to north Tuesday morning. Winds will also pick up out of the south to southeast on the back side of the low.
304 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Weak mid level ridging resides across much of the Gulf of Mexico and FL through late Wed as Atlantic high pressure stretches across the state then out over the Gulf. The axis of the high pressure although the gradient will be relaxed and allow afternoon sea breezes. with an inverted trough in the high pressure sliding across FL. Then over the weekend an upper level trough/low drops out of Canada and into the Mid-Atlantic region. The front stays north of the area but will help shift the ridging aloft and surface southward. Atlantic high pressure resides across the waters with a relaxed gradient.
SNELSON An incoming cold front on Wednesday will enhance convective coverage, especially by afternoon as instability increases with daytime heating.
1105 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 "Quiet before the storm" tonight as mid-level ridge of high pressure holds across the area. GFS and ECMWF models showing a secondary lobe of mid-level PV which combines with departing Cristobal to produce deepening surface cyclone later Tuesday night into Wednesday which really raps up the p-gradient Wednesday. So, consensus shows increasingly gusty northwest winds with the departing surface cyclone.
Once the strong upper trough passes across KS and into MO tonight, winds will slowly subside in western Oklahoma but remain gusty from central to north central parts of the state by sunrise Wednesday.
929 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Winds topped 60 mph this evening in few locations as the cold front moved across the plains. Snow showers already going on the high country, especially in the mountains north of I-70. This cold front is forecast to race down across the plains this evening as an upper trough ejects over the state later tonight. When the cold front gets moving, it is going to be driven by very strong pressure rises, on the order of 15 mb/3 hours around midnight. Departing upper low crosses Kansas Tuesday night, with much of the forecast area under north to northwest gradient flow.
Cool and dry air in place across northern Arizona will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the high country tonight.
High confidence to upgrade to a high wind warning west of Beaumont ridge in the Flint Hills with advisory across southeast Kansas. The strongest winds are expected on the west and south periphery of the cyclone, beginning to affect western portions of central Kansas and south central Kansas by late this afternoon. Showers and a few storms appear more likely this evening through tonight across central Kansas where elevated moisture transport and instability will wrap around the northwest periphery of the upper low.
South to southwest winds will increase and become gusty, with some gusts over 30-35kts possible through the afternoon and into the early evening as a Pacific cold front sweeps through.
A warming and drying trend will follow for the remainder of the week as high pressure aloft moves east across the Great Basin.
then northwest and gusty mid morning as a cold front moves through. /issued 624 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ /00Z TAFS/ South winds 5 to 10 KTS become northwest and gusty as a cold front moves in Tuesday morning. /issued 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Early this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed the remnants of TS Cristobal well inland over the the lower Mississippi Valley. An upper level trough was digging southward into the Four Corners region. A couple of the high res models try to initiate an isolated thunderstorm along the dry line later this afternoon across our western counties, but a capping inversion combined with a lack of upper lift will keep convective development to a minimum.
1010 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2020 Updated Aviation Warmer high temperatures, though still below normal, can be expected Tuesday along with lingering breeziness.
The evening surface analysis shows a weak stationary boundary to our south and a left over tropical system churning across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Upper ridging from the Atlantic Coast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will continue to break down as the wave associated with Cristobal migrates northward across the lower-mid Mississippi Valley. Into the afternoon, isolated to scattered storms are expected to fire along a warm front as well as the higher terrain, away from the greater upper level forcing associated with the troughing farther west. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday with a good chance for showers and storms developing along the front as it pushes through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
433 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Currently - A ridge extending across Florida is in the process of being reinforced by continental high spreading off the Atlantic coast. Short Term Update - Over the next couple of days the nearby ridge will lift northward into Florida and will continue to be reinforced by the high moving off the coast and yet another high further north also moving off the coast. Meanwhile, the lower level ridge over our area will gradually slip westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. On Wednesday, both day time heating and the lower level ridge shifting further west will to setup a northeasterly steering flow.
343 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Fair weather continues through midweek, although cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday versus today.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): 500mb trough across the Rockies this morning will move eastward across the central and southern plains tonight. a weak cold front will move into central Texas this afternoon and into south Texas tonight. Starr and Zapata counties for today as well as the Heat Advisory for the rest of deep south Texas for today as heat index values will reach 116 degrees across the middle and upper portions of the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and will reach 111 degrees across the lower Rio Grande Valley and the northern ranchlands this afternoon.
A weak cold front will help produce afternoon highs today not as hot as yesterday's highs. At 850mb, winds also from the northwest will bring much cooler temperatures over West Central Texas; this too will help produce afternoon highs cooler than yesterday.
The potent upper trough lies across eastern Colorado this morning and moves into western Kansas by late afternoon. Low and mid level wind profiles and gradients and downward vertical motion suggest the High Wind Warning for the southern Nebraska Panhandle will be on track through mid afternoon as stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Another cool night on northwest flow aloft with some increase in middle and high level cloudiness over the dirty ridge over the Pacific Northwest states.
As Cristobal and the upper disturbance in the plains lift out across the Great Lakes a cold front will swing south and through the region. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect through the high tide cycle this morning. A cold front will move through the coastal waters early Wednesday which should ease the above normal tides. A cold front will turn the flow offshore early Wednesday.
PoPs will remain on the high side until the lobe associated with Cristobal lifts northeast of the KEVV Tri-state around 18 UTC. As the closed low moves into Michigan, cloud cover will diminish Wednesday night for the Quad State region. Upper-level flow aloft will be northwesterly for the rest of the work week associated with a trough over the Midwest.
Eventually that drier air wins out, and QPF on the models falls off in the early evening and we may be rain free during the evening before the cold front associated with the Plains low moves in overnight into the day Wednesday. Precip chances do dissipate this evening as mentioned, but chances will return overnight and into the day Wednesday as the cold front moves closer. It looks like the cold front will move through during the day Wednesday, and precip chances will decrease from west to east during the day. The GFS is still showing that aggressive Midwest trough for the weekend, but has taken away its precip to bring a dry cold front through the mid state.
Also expect cooler temperatures with lingering rain showers.
Cooler temps and possible precipitation chances return by the weekend. Winds are lighter compared to 24 hours ago, and current temperatures are a mixed bag with some areas cooler while others are significantly milder.
534 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The midlevel low pressure responsible for widespread precipitation is currently over the Divide in central Colorado. The expansive cloud cover has kept the temperatures from plummeting in this seasonably cool air mass, but a few locations have managed to drop below freezing. Highs will run well below average for early June with 70s in the lowest valleys and 40s in the mountains. A few locations like the high-mountain valleys and portions of northwest Colorado look to approach if not drop below freezing. Northwest flow continues Wednesday, but quickly turns to more zonal across the region through the day as high pressure builds.
Dry today and Wednesday with relatively light winds and temperatures trending warmer.
A final cooler than average day today before temperatures climb above normal Wednesday into the foreseeable future.
a compact and slowly intensifying upper level low pressure area currently over southeast Colorado is forecast to slowly move into southwest Kansas by 18z then near south central Kansas by 00z. For tonight the low continues moving east toward the Kansas City area. ) High temperatures will range from the low 50s to near 70. The upper 60s to around 70 out east will be around sunrise for a few hours before the cold front moves through.
76 An unsettled atmosphere still lingering amid this slow-moving low pressure trough, will allow for one more push of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today through this evening.
A few showers are developing through Musselshell County along the trof axis this morning. Otherwise, drier and more stable air will move into the region from the west, as NW flow takes over in our western sections behind the departing trof. The upper level ridge axis becomes anchored over the Rockies by Wednesday, resulting in prevailing NW flow aloft across the region. Highs Wednesday will be a little warmer pushing into the lower to mid 70s. Gilstad Ridge of high pressure will bring sunny, dry and hot temperatures to the area for the end of the work week.
VFR conditions will prevail across the area today before low to mid level moisture increases ahead of a weak cold front tonight and MVFR conditions develop late tonight with low clouds/patchy fog. Excessive heat expected across portions of deep South Texas SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): 500mb trough across the Rockies this morning will move eastward across the central and southern plains tonight. a weak cold front will move into central Texas this afternoon and into south Texas tonight. Starr and Zapata counties for today as well as the Heat Advisory for the rest of deep south Texas for today as heat index values will reach 116 degrees across the middle and upper portions of the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and will reach 111 degrees across the lower Rio Grande Valley and the northern ranchlands this afternoon.
As high pressure settles over the area, winds will be northerly as well as light and variable at times through the weekend.
This will keep temperatures very close to normal, but that may feel a bit warmer as it will be 5-10 degrees warmer than our high temperatures yesterday.
As for winds with this system, the highest wind gusts will be over our far eastern Illinois counties with sustained winds near 30 mph and gusts near 45 mph. Then cooler air will make it's way into the region with lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 70s. Highs on Wednesday will be almost 10 degrees below normal, in the low to mid 70s.
358 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 An unsettled atmosphere still lingering amid this slow-moving low pressure trough, will allow for one more push of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today through this evening.
Otherwise, taking a look for mid-week, ridging will build southward.
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will move through the area this morning, resulting in gusty northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots. A weak cold front will help produce afternoon highs today not as hot as yesterday's highs. At 850mb, winds also from the northwest will bring much cooler temperatures over West Central Texas; this too will help produce afternoon highs cooler than yesterday.
SFC cold front moves through the Tennessee Valley during the day Wednesday from west to east. Cold front exits the area by Wednesday evening, hence ending any rain chances.
A warming trend along with dry weather will follow for the remainder of the week as high pressure aloft moves east across the Great Basin.
Likely rain chances dry out this evening from west to east and return Wednesday afternoon with upper trough passing along the northern border. Temps will be much cooler the next couple days as clouds persist with highs in the 60s to near 70.
Cool and dry air in place across northern Arizona will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the higher terrain this morning and again tonight. Cooler weather, but less wind, will persist today.
Storms are weakening as the low level instability decreases with high res models have convection lasting another 3 to 4 hours. Partly to mostly cloudy during the day today then an area of low pressure associated with the remains of Cristobal will move into Wisconsin later this afternoon. As the area of low pressure slowly moves into the region, scattered to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will travel north into northern WI and areas east of I-35 beginning in the late afternoon. Overall the high res models are in good agreement that the system will move north into Ontario by late Wednesday morning depositing a total of 2-4 inches of rain possible across northern WI.
Once the cold front pushes in later this morning and this afternoon, temperatures will begin to fall.