Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These MVFR ceilings are forecast to remain over the region Monday morning ahead of a cold front expected to push into the CWA just outside of this TAF period. a wave was pushing eastward across California and Nevada which is forecast to move through the Plains Monday with a strong cold front into the CWA Monday afternoon. These winds combined with dewpoints in the 50s will aid in afternoon temperatures slightly warmer compared to yesterday.
Temperatures this afternoon are mainly in the low to mid 70s. For Monday night, a strong cold front is still expected to move through during the evening through overnight hours.
Tonight: High pressure north of the region over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states will continue to strengthen overnight, with northeasterly onshore flow expected overnight. Monday: High pressure will build east off the coast of the northeastern conus Monday afternoon, and a coastal trough will develop offshore.
An upper trough is moving through the western CONUS and into Montana this afternoon. Skies have been cloudy all day, but precipitation has had to struggle through drier air in the lower atmosphere to reach the ground. Skies will briefly clear some overnight after the trough passes through, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower teens along the Canadian border by Monday morning, as well as some gusty north winds.
On Monday, with dry air still filtering in, expect another benign weather day with maximum temperatures in the low 80s, a couple degree above seasonalal norms.
207 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure remains in place through Monday.
943 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 Bands of light rain and snow will move through the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington today low pressure system slowly exits the region. Concerning the winter weather advisories post frontal northwest flow has developed with the upper trough axis crossing into western Montana this morning.
With the high shifting east and southerly return flow. In advance of the strong cold front there will be gusty winds tomorrow afternoon and evening. this will be a strong and significant cold front.
An upper level trough, currently moving through the Pacific Northwest, will cause an area of low pressure to develop over western Nebraska late tonight. Precipitation may begin as rain, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, before changing over to all snow. With a strong push of cold air, the threat for sleet and freezing rain will be fairly limited. That pattern will feature a west coast/western conus ridge and downstream eastern conus trof.
WPC thinks 12z GFS was an outlier with its farther west track toward Fergus Falls/Wadena with the low.
Southerly winds will continue to transport moisture northward across the region tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to move into NW Oklahoma mid to late Monday morning moving across the rest of the area by Monday evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon/night as the cold front moves into the better moisture of SE portions of the fa. Colder and drier air will move into the area behind the cold front on gusty NW winds.
An associated surface cold front was stretched over northern Montana into northern North Dakota. As the 700mb-500mb low/trough shifts through southern ND and northern SD Monday, large scale ascent will increase and eventually overlap a strengthening low level frontogenesis field, especially in the southern James River Valley. Prior to that, Bufkit soundings indicate a warm layer aloft in the southern James River Valley during the early morning, which will possibly produce a period of light freezing rain.
A strong pacific cold front will move through wrn Nebraska 09z-12z Monday morning. Isolated showers are possible across Ncntl Neb associated with the pacific cold front. An upper level trough of low pressure is forecast to cross the Northern Rockies and dig into the high plains early Monday. A closed low will form to the lee of the Wyoming Rockies and move east across the SDAK/NEB border through the day reaching far sw MN by late afternoon. The track of the low pressure will provide for increasing chances of precipitation across northern portions of the forecast area. The cold front is strong, the latest models have pushed up wind speeds once again, with the latest guidance indicating gusts at or above 45 mph.
Broad upper level ridging extends from the Bahamas northward along the eastern seaboard to New England. This ridge will slip eastward toward Bermuda through the middle of the week.
125 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017 Southwest flow aloft has developed over the Central High Plains ahead of a deepening trough over the northwest US. A warm front is in the process of passing over our CWA, while opaque high cloud cover has dampened radiational heating so far this afternoon. Tonight-Monday: A strong cold front is still expected to move across our CWA late tonight through Monday as the upper level trough in the northwest US transitions east. A strong lobe of vorticity along leading edge of trough axis will pas over our CWA during the day Monday, however moisture advection remains cutoff and a deep dry layer should keep conditions dry. Northwest locations could be below freezing by the later part of the afternoon. 5 anomaly passes over our our CWA by midday Monday with main upper level trough.
An upper trough moved through the region this morning bringing gusty winds, clouds and a few light showers. The clouds associated with the trough are still over the southern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon but will continue to clear through this evening.
Nights will be very cool in the valleys starting tonight and continuing through midweek with some spots possibly dropping to freezing levels. Daytime temperatures will gradually warm through the week as high pressure strengthens over California.
255 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure will build over the region tonight and will hold over the area on Monday before shifting east Monday night.
146 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure will build over the region this week bringing inversions, very cold nights, light winds, and reduced air quality for valleys.
325 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure will build over the region tonight and will hold over the area on Monday before shifting east Monday night.
High pressure will provide another pleasant and unseasonably mild day across central Indiana today and into Monday before a frontal system brings rain, a dramatic pattern change, and much colder air to the area for the mid to late portions of the coming week. Will bump up the highs a category. Quiet weather can be expected yet again today under the influence of high pressure.
As this area of low pressure moves inland on Sunday, a potent mid- level jet streak will shift eastward over the greater Four Corners region. By 0z, a cold front evident in thermal fields will surge southward into northeast Utah. Along and just behind this frontal boundary will be the best opportunity for accumulating snow in the higher terrain. An elongated upper level trough will also be moving across the CWA during this timeframe but with no moisture to work with, no precipitation is expected for the rest of the CWA. Lows will drop to more normal values while highs will also reach normal values meaning high temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler than seen recently.
A cold front across central Idaho and west central Montana has been producing light snow for much of the day.
Pre-frontal trough now moving into Carbon and Converse Counties this afternoon with some precip breaking out on radar.
1156 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 An upper level trough will swing across the area today accompanied by high and mid level cloudiness. High pressure returns for tonight and Monday.
Cold front has pushed through the Western Magic Valley this morning with snow falling to the valley floors. An upper trough to our west will move through the region today. A southwest-northeast oriented band of precipitation associated with the trough, situated between Boise and Baker City, will continue to slowly shift eastward through southwest Idaho today. Snow levels will fall to near valley floors behind a cold front. Winds will also increase behind a cold front, becoming very windy across portions of south-central Idaho from east of Boise into the Western Magic Valley and Southern Twin Falls County. Scattered snow showers will continue this evening, mainly in the higher terrain of southwest Idaho where additional light snow accumulations are possible. Drier northerly flow arrives on Monday as an upper ridge develops off the west coast.
216 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
243 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 The upper trough over the Rockies will amplify as it moves east through the week. Downsloping northwest winds will keep temperatures warm for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 60s northwest to the upper 70s in the Rolling Plains tomorrow.
1219 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
301 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Another beautiful day of above-normal temperatures is occurring across West Texas and Southeast new Mexico, courtesy of weak upper- lvl ridging over the central CONUS the past few days. Monday night, the fun begins as a strong cold front associated w/the aforementioned upper trough backdoors into the area, w/fropa at KMAF around 05Z Tue. As this transpires, another trough is forecast to develop over the wrn CONUS, and slide across the SW CONUS into the region by midweek.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning eastward across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is pushing east across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening across eastern Colorado. Mesoscale models have trended slightly cooler (not as warm) for afternoon highs across the northern counties, where the forecast highs have been paired back slightly for today. The surface cold front is shown to enter our western counties as early as around 12 UTC, and move rapidly though the area by late morning.
The limiting factor for warmer temperatures will be the cirrus that is moving through the area. An upper level low across northern California will make its way east across the intermountain west over the next 24 hours. expect a cold front to cross the local area from the northwest as the aforementioned low pressure system emerges out of the Rockies.
1045 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 The high pressure ridge axis that is now dominating the eastern half of the country slipped to the east overnight. As a result, mostly south/southeasterly winds are spread across Central IL on this side of the ridge. Clear skies prevailing over the forecast area early this morning, courtesy of high pressure over the Midwest.
A strong polar trough approaching from the NW will maintain southerly winds and some frictional effects to generate some light showers or patchy drizzle late tonight into Monday morning as precipitable water values remain above normal.
330 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Water vapor imagery continues to shows a dirty ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon, with southwesterly flow aloft. For this reason, temperatures are running similar too or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. The main focus of the forecast continues to be with the approaching cold front.
Targets of short term forecast opportunity remain in the high temp forecast Today and Tmrw, as we continue to spot up a degree or two from the blend.
306 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure will bring fair weather with above normal temperatures to the region today through Monday.
1121 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
Main focus will be on an upper trough crossing the Rockies today, and ejecting into the plains tonight/early Monday. We continue to see evidence for a banded/trowal type feature as this low wraps up across the area, and forecast timing/intensity attempts to consolidate the ARX/NMM and 00Z NAMNest outcomes, which are fairly close in evolution. A large upper level low pressure trough is expected across the eastern U. high pressure ridge. Therefore, deep cold northerly flow is expected through the period with several short wave troughs/clipper systems dropping across the region.
The daytime heating and increasing S-SE low level flow will help mix out the low vsbys and ceilings allowing for improved aviation conditions later today. However some MVFR ceilings may be possible as the low level dewpoints rebound later in the current TAF period. /issued 417 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Dense fog is once again the issue for the early morning hours with the lowest vsbys confined to the Brooks/Kenedy and inland Willacy counties. A warmer S-SE low level flow will prevail throughout today and Mon which will increase WAA steadily over the RGV resulting in a continuation of temps well above climo for early Dec. Will go with max temps today and Mon on the warmer side of guidance. But expect the low level WAA to make up for any loss of diurnal heating.
High A strong mid/upper trough moves into the Northern Plains, with a strong 145 knot 250 mb upper jet rounding the base of the trough. Strengthening low pressure will exit the Central Plains and move into Minnesota. South winds ahead of the low will keep above normal temperatures going, but low clouds will temper the highs a bit. Kept a slight chance of thunder going based on models still showing some instability in the warm sector ahead of the low. Elevated CAPE is around 90 Joules/kg late tonight, then becomes surface based and rises to around 250 Joules/kg just ahead of the cold front. South Winds will be on the increase during the day, and max mix down with the cold front that arrives late afternoon west of Madison.
A cold front is still on schedule to push through the area Monday afternoon which will drop temps tomorrow into the 50s and 60s from the 70s and 80s today.
1241 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
/issued 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ Water vapor imagery shows a dirty ridge of high pressure over the ArkLaTex this morning. This in combination with the warmer start to our day means that most places are running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and some even warmer than that. Believe this trend will continue through today, and therefore, updated the forecast this morning to go at least as warm as yesterday if not two or 3 degrees warmer, depending on location. The main focus of the forecast right now continues to be with the approaching cold front.
A large mid to upper level trough currently over the western CONUS will propagate east into the upper plains overnight, with an associated low pressure system developing in response to the trough on the lee side of the Rockies. An approaching surface cold front will lead to a tightening pressure gradient on Monday with southerly flow and low-level moisture increasing.
219 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
249 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Main forecast concerns are shower and thunderstorm potential associated with tomorrow's cold frontal passage, as well as a small window for enhanced fire weather concern behind the front.
Weak cold air advection was occuring across our forecast area this afternoon, north of a weak baroclinic trough, and enhanced by a persistent region of low clouds across south GA. Normally, when the low layer wind is from the east to northeast this time of year, the fog and low clouds don't develop until early morning, and tend to develop east to west. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 50s.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the area today and then gradually strengthen this week for drier weather. Meanwhile, the low pressure system responsible for the cool and unsettled conditions was currently over eastern WA. This system will continue moving east, with an upper level ridge following on its heels.
1115 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a dirty ridge of high pressure over the ArkLaTex this morning. This in combination with the warmer start to our day means that most places are running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and some even warmer than that. Believe this trend will continue through today, and therefore, updated the forecast this morning to go at least as warm as yesterday if not two or 3 degrees warmer, depending on location. The main focus of the forecast right now continues to be with the approaching cold front.
Temperatures have been fluctuating around freezing this morning, so it has been difficult to tell where the rain/snow transition zone is. Hickford Upper trof moving across the west coast with Pacific moisture spreading northward into Montana. Low pressure system still developing over southwest Montana, for warmer air still pushing north into eastern Montana. Very amplified pattern developing with strong Hudson Bay low keeping deep trof over the eastern states and sharp ridge along the west coast. Northerly flow between these features will stream across the high plains, with the biggest forecast concern being where the boundary between the cold and warm air will be.
1022 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 High pressure will briefly build over the area on today.
929 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will sag southward across the region as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley.
1021 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Cloud cover increased over the area this morning, extending from Devils Lake to Grand Forks, as a warm front pushes north of the area. With warmer column in place Friday temperatures should continue a slow warm up with all areas in the 80s.
S to SE winds 5 to 15 KTs will prevail with gusts up to 30 KTs with the highest speeds and gusts in the afternoon and evening hours.
With the low stationary, slow storm movement is expected, therefore an increased chance for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.
958 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Surface cold front crosses our region bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Seeing some scattered shower activity increasing in areal coverage across northern New York in response to another pre- frontal trough swinging in, with the best potential vorticity still northwest of the region along the real cold front. Question still remains as to how much clearing we'll see in the wake of the pre-frontal trough ahead of the front, and how much instability can develop to produce convection. Cold air advection behind departing cold front will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side for Friday with max temps only in the mid 70s. We'll be locked in with light cold air advection and high pressure building into the North Country.
1042 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 15z/10am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front extending from Lake Erie southwestward through central Illinois into Oklahoma. High temperatures will only reach the lower 80s.
Seasonal summer weather through Friday with high pressure over the Southwest.
Main difference between yesterday and today will be the departure of the inverted trough as it drifts west underneath the dominant US ridge. As the ridge builds in, some drier air will return to the region between 5000 and 10000 feet.
Low level moisture remains equally impressive with 60s widespread across the lower elevations and 50s across the high valleys.
Quiet and dry regime lasts into Friday as the influence of the high holds sway. Dense fog will be an issue early this morning behind the cold front as skies briefly clear and dew points initially remain high.
Dense fog will be an issue early this morning behind the cold front as skies briefly clear and dew points initially remain high.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will redevelop by early afternoon and persist into this evening, mainly over the higher terrain of central and southwest Idaho. A weakening upper level low will move northeast across the area today, helping to initiate one last round of showers and thunderstorms before it departs tonight. Most of this activity will be on the Idaho side of the border, but convection cannot be ruled out in the higher terrain of Baker County and along the Oregon/Idaho border, especially early in the afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal today before warming rapidly to the upper 90s in the lower elevations tomorrow as upper level ridging develops. Sufficient moisture will remain for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon in the higher terrain, once again mainly on the Idaho side.
The upper low that had been lingering over northern California earlier this week has now moved into southwest Idaho.
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 For this afternoon and evening, a vigorous short wave trough, currently located over southern Manitoba, will move southeast across northern and eastern Wisconsin.
Temperatures today will be just a big cooler than yesterday based on more substantial cloud cover, but still near 90. A weak flow under an upper ridge will be over the region through the period. Weak energy moves through the ridge through the period.
The thunderous stretch of the past several days has come to an end in our forecast area as the upper low that pulled moist unstable air into the region has exited, stage right. Heights will slowly rise over the region into the weekend, with a thermal trough deepening along the coast.
1050 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Currently - A split ridge pattern is in place, with a small Gulf high and the Atlantic high split by Florida.
Bottom line is that with the cold front progressing southward, rain chances will increase today, into this evening, given the aformentioned factors. A low pressure center develops in the vicinity of western KY and brings the greatest chances of rain to western KY overnight and toward the TN border Friday morning. cooler air in behind the front.
711 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will sag southward across the region as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley.
then the chance of convection should slowly begin to increase once again towards sunrise as a cold front approaches the area.
As cold front to our north keeps convection energized during the day just to our northwest, expect patchy cirrus to continue streaming southeastward across the Mid-State. Still expect a cold front to roll through tonight and Friday, bringing along a swath of showers and thunderstorms with it. SPC continues to keep the Mid State in a marginal-to-slight risk for severe storms Tonight and Friday, as the cold front moves through, with the main impact being from damaging straight line winds and torrential downpours. Models continue to bring in a sprawling high pressure system from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend, which will finally bring a reprieve from all this oppressive heat and humidity.
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Very heavy rain is tracking across extreme eastern KS into western MO this morning where a rather strong low-level jet has been feeding copious amounts of moisture into a cold front that is slowly making its way southward. Cold front will continue making its way southward into the Ozarks tonight while a large area of high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.
1030 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A humid airmass in place across the area with dewpoints in the low 70s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 75 83 71 / 40 30 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 73 81 68 / 50 30 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 89 72 79 69 / 40 40 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 69 82 65 / 50 40 80 60.
The high temperature forecast was lowered mainly in the southwestern half of the forecast area given cloud concerns much of the day. Global models are starting to come into better alignment regarding a prolonged period favoring wet weather across at least some of the High Plains including western Kansas.