Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
214 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Currently there is split upper level flow over the US with zonal flow along the US/Canadian border and a cut off low and broad ridging over the southeast US.
Mid/Upper level trough over the ARKLATEX region on recent satellite imagery is moving slowly northeast this morning toward the lower OH Valley region. Surface analysis late this morning shows a warm front stretching across Northern Indiana. ahead of low pressure over Iowa. Radar shows an area of rain fall in the wake of the warm front over SW Indiana. trended slightly cooler than the previous forecast with expected clouds and rain through the afternoon. As weakening low pressure moves across southern IN then off to the east, low clouds and some light rain/drizzle should remain from cooler air circulating around the backside of the low. Would expect the possibility of some dense fog especially across urban areas where the wet comparatively warmer ground is covered by the cooler air on the backside of the surface system/trough in low levels.
Benign weather pattern in place across the area today with high pressure in control of our weather. As far as temps are concerned, above normal temps expected through the period as low-level SE wind flow is allowing for a warmer, more humid airmass to advect into the region. Overnight temps tonight will be about 5-7 degrees warmer than what we woke up to earlier today. Expecting overnight temps in the upper 50s to middle 60s with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s on Monday. with mid level ridging building in from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. With upper ridging building in across the region, we will continue to see unseasonably warm conditions.
1158 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 /18Z TAFS/ The low cloud cover has scattered out at our southern terminals, and VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and much of tonight. /issued 410 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low will remain across northern Mexico/southern Arizona today and tonight, with southwest flow across West Central Texas.
411 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 A slightly warmer and more humid air mass has migrated into the service area today, thanks to the onset of easterly breezes. Currently, air temperatures are 78-81F in Keys island communities with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. Wind speeds are highest across the Straits of Florida where warmer sea surface temperatures are supporting steeper low-level lapse rates and downward momentum transport. Over the much cooler waters north of the islands, winds are mostly decoupled from stronger flow just above the surface.
A warm front is located inland along the Gulf Coast with overrunning precipitation across the Tennessee Valley. Model soundings indicate saturation in the low levels and have mentioned -DZ overnight.
Weak warm front will bring a slight chance of snow to northern mountains tonight and especially Monday.
242 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 As of mid afternoon, regional radar imagery showed an area of showers generally along and east of the I-65 corridor across the lower Ohio Valley. Readings were in the low to mid 40s with overcast skies. As we head into this evening, the low levels of the atmosphere will begin to moisten and saturate from the surface to about 850 mb. Plan on lows in the low 40s. This should keep our highs held down to the low to mid 50s. Lows Monday night will stay in the low to mid 40s.
Stratus developed on the edge of our eastern zones and has since expanded to the west as the low level flow continues out of the northeast. Warmer air continues to work back into the region tonight into Monday with 925 hpa temperatures warming nearly 10 degrees C.
The pockets of residual cold air/freezing rain will likely scour out with the passage of this wave. Have issued a short term forecast to address potential minor impacts in freezing rain as a minor glaze cannot be ruled out. Highs today will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s for the lower elevations to mainly 30s for the mountains.
216 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a split flow aloft with a southern stream low spinning along the AZ/northwest MX border, and progressive northern stream trough bisecting the Dakotas into northeast UT/northwest CO.
326 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 Strong and deep high pressure remains well in control of the region, keeping benign weather conditions in place through the forecast period. Models move the center of the high basically right over South Florida by Monday, which will turn winds more SSE by mid week. This will combine with a 500 mb ridge, which model solutions show anchoring just south of the state, to bring warmer temperatures across the area.
High pressure centered offshore and a coastal thermal trough will continue to support somewhat gusty north winds south of Cape Ferrelo into this evening. The trough will then weaken and winds gradually back to southerly. Winds are then expected to increase Monday night ahead of a cold front.
1017 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Deep low-level saturation and moist upslope flow is supporting fog and patchy freezing drizzle, along with areas of light snow along/ east of the Laramie Range this AM. Conditions improving through the day w/sfc flow becoming westerly in response to a passing trough axis.
Upper trof moving across the western states splitting, leaving a closed low over the desert sw while the northern portion heads toward the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be cooler than last week but still generally mild. Midweek sees the development of a potential winter storm system with upper trof dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Great Basin.
The compact upper level low pressure system that brought light rain and sprinkles to south central and parts of southwest Kansas late last night has lifted northeast out of the High Plains region this morning. In its wake, the cold front that pushed through western Kansas last night had stalled out across central Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, an upper level low pressure trough extending from the northern Plains into southern Arizona was shearing out with the Arizona low getting cut off from the upper flow. Over the next 24 hours, the models show the upper trough continuing to head into the Northeast while the Arizona low gradually weakens and opens up as it heads toward the southern Plains. With mainly clear skies overnight, low temperatures should drop to around the coolest MOS guidance, if not a few degrees cooler.
1148 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Late morning surface analysis shows a warm front stretching from just north of a Galesburg to Pontiac line, and still south of Lacon in Marshall county where temp was only 34F. Warm front extended westward to a weakening 1017 mb low pressure south of Des Moines in south central IA. Cloud cover and some light rain to keep temperatures nearly steady in the low to mid 40s today. with afternoon highs mainly in the lower to middle 40s.
Based on some clearing tonight, and partly sunny conditions on Monday, highs will rise above freezing for most areas, the warmest readings will occur in west central Minnesota where both lack of snow cover and a downslope component along the Buffalo Ridge will lead to highs in the 40s.
1025 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Light mixed wintry precipitation and areas of freezing fog observed earlier this morning have dissipated. Deep low-level saturation and moist upslope flow is supporting fog and patchy freezing drizzle, along with areas of light snow along/ east of the Laramie Range this AM. Conditions improving through the day w/sfc flow becoming westerly in response to a passing trough axis.
Tonight, isentropic upglide will increase after midnight in response to the next upstream upper level low approaching.
/issued 948 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017/ High pressure will continue to remain over the Southeastern United States for rest of today into tonight keeping the weather dry along with an easterly wind flow. /issued 254 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017/ High pressure, centered to the north, is forecast to maintain quiet weather conditions through the beginning of the week, under an easterly flow. The high then is progged to slide to the southeast, setting up almost directly over South Florida. There is also a 500mb ridge centered just to the south of the Florida peninsula. This will allow for warmer temperatures across the CWA for the entire forecast period.
Another strong and fast movg upper low will pull the frontal boundary responsible for this rain, back out of the gulf as a warm front on Monday.
Isentropic ascent to the north of a warm front is leading to widespread light rain across the area. At the surface, a warm front stretches W-E across South Alabama and Georgia. The lift will exit the region tonight but the low level moisture will remain with the boundary to the south. On Monday, the upper level ridge will expand slightly to the north with the front to the south nudging to the northeast. With the higher heights aloft and partly sunny skies by the afternoon, highs will warm into the mid to upper 50s.
255 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Clouds overnight kept lows up into the lower 40s over much of the area. Towards mid week a mid-level closed low becomes cut off over the western US.
229 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 After a cooler day today, warmer weather will return for the start of the workweek. Short term models are in good agreement that the low cloud cover will scatter/erode by evening and with decreasing cloud cover tonight, temps should drop to the teens/20s for lows. Sunshine, downslope winds and airmass change of 7C at H8 will lead to a much warmer day with highs in the 50s.
345 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 20z sfc analysis shows low pressure working into Kentucky with a weakening cold front spreading into our area. Under the thick clouds temperatures are holding in the upper 30s to lower 40s most places while dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s. Winds are predominantly light and variable with the higher elevations and locations closer to the Bluegrass seeing southwest ones.
Early this morning an upper level trough was lifting northeast across north central OK and south central KS. As the upper trough lifts northeast across eastern KS, the stronger ascent will shift northeast of the CWA by 18Z and we should see our rain chances come to an end. A weak cold front will move southward across the central counties of the CWA but frontolysis will occur and the front should become less defined during the late afternoon hours into Tonight. Highs will only reach the lower 50s across east central KS with mid 40s across north central KS. Temperatures will be above freezing if any drizzle were to occur. Late Tonight temperatures will drop off into the lower to mid 30s across east central KS with mid 20s across north central KS as skies clear from west to east.
Rain should continue to quickly lift northeast this morning as the upper low lifts out. Models continue to agree on another closed low developing over Sonora Mexico by this evening. 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come in about 6 to 12 hours slower with the strong cold front on Thu. The concern at midday is MVFR (in SE KS IFR) cigs across areas primarily along & E of I-35/135 With weak lwr-deck troffing situated from Wrn IA, thru C KS to between KEWK & KHUT, to W TX moving very little, if at all, this afternoon it's doubtful the Stratus covering KCNU (especially), KSLN & KICT will scour this afternoon.
As for Sunday into Monday, high pressure will return to the forecast and we're expecting some offshore flow and the Chetco effect in Brookings.
Isolated to scattered showers and patchy light rain expected to develop near the coast overnight/early Monday, then spread across the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads in response to a developing coastal trough of low pressure.
352 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Latest visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the low clouds is still across far western Oklahoma, and we are not expecting clearing before morning. If the low clouds hang around, low temperatures should stay up in the 40s, similar to current dewpoint observations.
Satellite trends, as well as our latest near- term guidance, now suggest that lower clouds will expand across CNY/NEPA later tonight, then remain draped over the region Monday, with a moist southerly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A weak trof associated with a Canadian low pressure system will move across NY Monday night.
Far eastern zones are mainly under the influence of the circulation from the outer band of clouds from an upper low traversing eastern Kansas. with only stronger gusts from Highway 27 eastward prohibiting development due to decent mixing at the low levels. With temps this morning around freezing for many spots. freezing fog and even freezing drizzle that develops could put light coatings on area roadways. The area awaits a slow moving trough NW of the area to swing into the Plains region. The slowness/timing of this system is affected by the movement of the upper trough/low over eastern Kansas. Once the trough to the NW clears the area.
425 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 Clouds will persist overnight with lows in the lower to middle 30s.
The low status will also be pushed eastward by this increasing flow with some clearing toward daybreak.
244 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over eastern portions of the Northern Plains with light southerly winds across much of the area. Ridge is beginning to rebuild over the Pacific NW. Mild and mainly dry weather will return for the first half of the week as the building ridge to the west gradually shifts east into the Plains.
All sites should return to VFR by mid- morning Monday as the Sun heats the boundary layer and burns the low clouds/fog off. Eventually, the low level flow will veer to more of a westerly direction, warming and drying the bulk of this low level moist layer, but it is highly uncertain how quickly this will occur. Although it is not currently forecast, the chance is not zero that the low clouds could erode late afternoon and into the evening from the southwest as moisture aloft diminishes, and if this occurs, fog would likely develop.
On Monday, models develop a warm front along the coastal low and moves it north of our area, bringing southerly flow back at the surface. Increasing surface temperatures and an approaching mid-level trough will increase instability, so have kept thunder in the forecast starting Monday afternoon.
At the sfc ridging from high pressure centered over eastern Ontario was keeping conditions dry over Upper Michigan into the early morning hours. Expect min temps to generally range from the teens inland to the lower 20s closer to the Great Lakes shorelines. As the first passes, a mix of rain and snow is forecast over northern portions of Upper MI, with the greatest rain chances being along the shorelines and snow chances over the higher terrain.
110 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 High pressure will shift off the coast High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast this afternoon. A subtropical ridge will continue to extend into the Southeastern states this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be centered offshore which will promote southerly flow. Lows tonight will be warmer than previous nights due to increasing cloudiness and possible warm air advection. An upper level disturbance falls apart as it moves into the mean ridge axis over the Southeast U.
The weak storm system exiting Utah will be replaced by high pressure aloft beginning later today.
303 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 A weak area of low pressure will cross the region Monday bringing some light snow to the region.
In addition to the low flight categories, -RA wl spread across the srn half of the area Monday as well.
317 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Late tonight/early Monday morning a Canadian cold front will begin a southward descent into ND, progressing across the state through Monday. The proceeding warm front will make for a mild Monday, particularly in central and southern areas where high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 40s. Though we could see some precipitation track with the cold front as it drops south through the forecast area.
A warm front associated with the aforementioned sfc wave will stall across the local area and become a stationary boundary early Monday.
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over the northwest Sonora Mexico this afternoon, fairly detached from the northern branch jet at this time.
Much warmer than normal temperatures for this time of the year expected in the near term, especially tonight when overnight lows will be 20-25 degrees above normal.
At the sfc ridging from high pressure centered over eastern Ontario was keeping conditions dry over Upper Michigan into the early morning hours. Expect min temps to generally range from the teens inland to the lower 20s closer to the Great Lakes shorelines.
/Issued 312 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/ A cold front will move across the Panhandles this morning in the wake of a departing upper level low which is moving into Kansas. Low clouds and areas of fog will be found in association with the cold front, but think these will dissipate and push off to the east by early afternoon. Temperatures may drop fairly quickly after sunset given the light winds and the slightly drier air behind the cold front. The GFS is not as agressive with the low level moistening since mid and high level clouds increase overnight keeping temperatures a little warmer and therefore keeping a spread between the dew points and temperatures. Southwest winds will return to the Panhandles as a surface lee trough develops in response to another approaching upper level low.
The lower clouds will be slow to move through the rest of the morning, but should start to slide east and slowly dissipate through the afternoon and evening as WSW flow increases. The coverage is not continuous, but low enough to hoist a dense fog advisory for the morning hours, as the fog should linger trough mid morning before dissipating or exiting east. Will be stuck with plenty of clouds today, that will slide southeast as the day goes on as the 500mb trough stretching from Manitoba through eastern MT/WY and down through northwestern Mexico slides east. This feature will be over eastern ND and western SD by mid day, with clouds beginning to exit east as the trough to our eastern counties by 00Z Monday, and to our southeast by 03Z.
Therefore have put in patchy fog (temps should remain above freezing so no freezing fog is expected) for the central and eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into Monday morning.
Temperatures should slowly rise in these areas this morning, so I do not expect freezing drizzle to be an issue. The other forecast concern in the near-term is the threat for drizzle or freezing drizzle across western and west-central Nebraska. High temperatures today will be much cooler than previous days, largely thanks to persistent cloud cover. Westerly winds at the surface and aloft will make Monday significantly warmer than today, with high temperatures in the mid 50s.
Synoptically speaking, the closed low will remain situated over northern Mexico while the upper level flow transitions from northwesterly to westerly across our forecast area on Monday.
The low level moisture in place does not seem deep enough to produce freezing drizzle or snow flurries, so dropped it from the forecast near the lake and bay today.
Latest RAP guidance indicates this low level moisture will remain in place, and advect northward this evening, placed along and east of the valley.
Closed upper low over northwest Mexico to track east early this week across the southwestern states and southern Rockies. The closed upper low should weaken with the best lift and moisture remaining south and east of the forecast area.
Meanwhile, a secondary northern stream trough will move across the Dakotas and western MN later this afternoon. Clouds and cooler temperatures today should limit melting of current snowpack, but will still have to watch fog potential again tonight. The next Canadian trough and associated cold front will move across the forecast area Monday night.
Dew points are currently in the low to mid-40Fs across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas.
Dry low levels may allow temperatures to trend slightly warmer than guidance.
Weak warm front will lift up to southeast GA tonight and combined with weak disturbances aloft will generate isolated to scattered showers across parts of southeast GA. weak warm front will be across parts of southeast AL into southeast GA in the morning with scattered rain/showers mostly over southeast GA and a slight chance showers near and north of I-10. Mid level ridging will build a bit northward during the day and shove deep moisture/front northward in the aftn.
An area of low pressure south of the southern Arizona border will bring scattered snow showers to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains today through Monday.
303 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 A strong jet streak will work into the Northern Plains late tonight into Monday which will allow a westerly component to the low level flow. Went just a touch warmer on Monday given dry ground and westerly component, so looking at mid 50s in south central SD to mid 40s in southwest MN. While some cooler air will settle south Monday night, temperatures will still be well above normal with the colder air bottled up in ND and northern MN.
1023 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Light mixed wintry precipitation and areas of freezing fog observed earlier this morning have dissipated. Deep low-level saturation and moist upslope flow is supporting fog and patchy freezing drizzle, along with areas of light snow along/ east of the Laramie Range this AM. Conditions improving through the day w/sfc flow becoming westerly in response to a passing trough axis.
This low will make its way eastward as an upper level wave moves out of the Gulf of Alaska.
At the surface, weak srly flow prevailed as high pres moves to nrn New England and low pressure develops over the plains. WAA will help push temps above seasonal averages with highs in the lower to mid 30s.
1055 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Late morning surface analysis shows a warm front stretching from just north of a Galesburg to Pontiac line, and still south of Lacon in Marshall county where temp was only 34F. Warm front extended westward to a weakening 1017 mb low pressure south of Des Moines in south central IA. Cloud cover and some light rain to keep temperatures nearly steady in the low to mid 40s today. with afternoon highs mainly in the lower to middle 40s.
The new forecast is therefore a bit warmer than before. Low temperatures should be in the lower 20s. There will be increasing southwest flow Monday in advance of an approaching cold front and mid-level trough. While it will remain cloudy, temperatures will climb to near or little above the freezing mark. A strong jet will move into the Northern Plains as a cold front and mid- level trough move into the Northland.
mainly in the lower elevations and valleys where colder air has become trapped. However, prior to any precipitation arriving, temperatures should safely rise above freezing and likewise should see quite an uptick in dewpoints as well.
1014 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017 Eastern Utah and western Colorado lay between a closed low over the state of Sonora in northern Mexico and the open wave trough over the northern Rockies early this morning. The trough to the north will drift eastward during the day while the low remains relatively stationary. In fact, dry weather will continue tonight and Monday as the low over northern Mexico remains too far south to impact the region, and moisture in the northern stream also remains well removed from the region.
Remainder of forecast is on track with highs in the low to mid 60s today.
The lower 50s(F) are likely ahead of the boundary in south central Kansas. A weak flow aloft and a prevailing drier air mass across the Western High Plains will hold any chances for precip at bay, especially toward the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. This will draw warmer air into the region, pushing H85 temperatures up near 10C.