Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE GRAND VALLEY AND GRAND FLAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. THOUGH AREAS BELOW 4600 FT MAY STILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING TOWARDS MORNING AND NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED TO PRECEDE THE MAIN TROUGH AND MAY BRING A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN PART MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION START EARLY THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NIGHT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
VERTICAL ASCENT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS ACROSS SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH.
343 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE CNDN/WRN ND BORDER DROPPING S/SE. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE NRN ROCKIES. COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN AVG. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS WRN SD. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THU WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
422 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN TODAY AND AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG ENOUGH WINDS TO PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME RECOVERING ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL ENHANCE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE LONGWAVE TROF WAS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. THE TROF WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK WHILE THE LOW WILL CONT SE. THIS LOW IS POTENT AND WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 525 DM. SURFACE: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT WAS JUST S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS REALLY WON'T BE THAT MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH THE WIND. USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE STATE LATER TODAY. COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.
A TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMP ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF ITS SUPPORT IS QUICKLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH LOW LVL W/WNW FLOW IN THE MORNING ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN ACROSS NRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS DROP BELOW AN INCH ACROSS NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY (SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S) AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
1229 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 PRESENCE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL WIND GUST WILL CAUSE CONFIDENCE TO BE LOW WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. /ISSUED 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
416 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE NEXT TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES.
408 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKING FACTOR FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
415 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BDL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
300 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH STG TO MDT MID LEVEL QG DESCENT COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO BY 00Z WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING FM NWLY TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY.
616 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE. SOME OF THIS MAY MIX DOWN WITH DOWNSLOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SE OF PIT AS THE FLOW WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGES. EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE EXITING BY THE TIME OF FROPA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PASSAGE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGHING AND SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD KEEP LOW PRECIP CHANCES N OF I 80 THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
341 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EDGE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHINESS ADVANCING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES.
223 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A RAINY WINDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS WAA IS PRESENT KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE RAINY AND WINDY, AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NY/PA FROM THE WEST. FINALLY, NAM/GFS PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (100-300 J/KG OF ML CAPE), JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD, SO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER. STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF TO MORE HIT AND MISS SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET APPEAR TO BE STAYING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WINDS THUS FAR AT THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON KENTUCKY MESONET STATIONS HAVE ONLY REACH 45 AND 40 MPH. WILL PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT IMPACTS THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HAVE ON THE ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS. AS AREAS UP NORTH WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. TROUGH AXIS WILL DEPART BY MID AFTERNOON. AND DRAG DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT (500MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 50KTS). A TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET APPEAR TO BE STAYING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WINDS THUS FAR AT THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON KENTUCKY MESONET STATIONS HAVE ONLY REACH 45 AND 40 MPH. WILL PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT IMPACTS THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HAVE ON THE ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS. AS AREAS UP NORTH WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. TROUGH AXIS WILL DEPART BY MID AFTERNOON. AND DRAG DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT (500MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 50KTS). HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT PASSING OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BRING FAIR WX LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS TODAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH 500MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AROUND -8 TO -9C. EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS SHOULD MIX OUT IN THE LOW 80S.
BUT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH GEORGIA TODAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. OVERALL QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ESTABLISHING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THE DIRTY SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
Temperatures today will top out in the low/mid 70s across most of the CWA with lows tonight in the low/mid 60s.
940 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
Early this morning, high pressure which was in control over the area yesterday is shifting northeast of the area. An upper level trough over northern Mexico will shift northeastward into the south Plains today. Out ahead of this system winds will increase out of the southeast today helping temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s today. This will help widespread showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms to develop across the area tonight as the aforementioned upper level trough shifts into the eastern Plains. On Thursday, the upper level trough will continue to lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest and showers will continue through much of the day on Thursday before clear late. Thursday night, a warm front begins to lift northward across the CWA.
STILL APPEARS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
628 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO ALL THREE OF THE TAF SITES. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
DUE TO AN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO FLORIDA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DRIVING EASTWARD. AND RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF OLD MEXICO. AS WELL AS REINFORCEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.
1119 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
TODAY WE ARE FORECASTING A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS IS CAUSED BY THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR 12Z TAFS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80, WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGED SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION.
THE WARM FRONT IS STILL LOOMING TO OUR SOUTH AND NEW GUIDANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE WARM FRONT WILL ONLY BE NEARING I-20 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SOLID MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH LIFTING N TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AS RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO MIDWESTERN STATES. LATEST WPC QPF IS LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH A FEW TWEAKS FOR THE REMAINING AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR CWA WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNE LATE TODAY. EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWRD FROM THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
BUT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
633 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
945 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAKENING COOL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO WARM SOME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND -8C AND 400 MB AROUND -19C.
AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S ARE FOUND OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IOWA THROUGH MISSOURI DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ENOUGH FOR A STEADY BREEZE OF AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY WITH GUSTS TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE THAT MAKES SOME SENSE.
1201 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
617 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM AROUND 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. LOCALES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST IOWA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AND IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN OREGON WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE OREGON COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
733 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
FOR 12Z TAFS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80, WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
1227 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
Over northeast KS where clouds and rain may linger longer into the afternoon, have highs only in the lower 70s. However the models seem to continue generating sporadic QPF as the low level jet increases.
748 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER.
1052 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
642 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 554 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND EVENING RAOB DATA INDICATES A SUBTROPICAL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THIS RIDGE AXIS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT AFTERNOON INSOLATION OFFSETTING COOLER MORNING TEMPS TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
Winds will become early later this mrng as the high continues to slide east across the Grt Lks today. Plenty of sunshine will combine with 850 temps in the low teens to allow temps to rise a few degrees warmer than yesterday into the low 70s.
733 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING NE VCNTY CLOUDS PCPN. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NE FROM WESTERN TROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
High pressure remained in control at the surface across the region with a clear sky, light east wind and cooler temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Coolest readings were in the eastern Ozarks where the lower dewpoints were occurring. The best precipitation will occur east of the trough axis across Texas into Oklahoma with very slight chances of rainfall over our far western CWA by late in the day.
1135 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER.
RAP MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BY SUNRISE. MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TODAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CAVEAT IS THAT A A MINOR S/W TROUGH MAY PUSH ACROSS TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY AND MAY FLIRT WITH THE HIGH RISK THRESHOLD AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
939 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVES IT EAST AS IT WEAKENS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ONE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER GATHERS STRENGTH TO OUR SW. WE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SINKING MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT IS DEPARTING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ALONG THE OR/ID BORDER AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON THURSDAY. ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL REINTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MTNS SEEING THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S BY TOMORROW EVENING. WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AN UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AVERAGING AROUND 25 KTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL GENERATE A STAGNANT WARM AND MOIST AIR CONVEYOR BELT OUT AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION A STEADY SURGE OF GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS.
934 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEK.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BUILD FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MINNESOTA.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST WHILE A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH MOVES NORTHWARD. DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THEY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
1115 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SETUP IS BORDERLINE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN 36.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE AREAS OF RAIN TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE GRAZING SYSTEM PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH. SO MAXES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TOMORROW.
930 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.