Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/BB/ Tonight through Friday Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed the region under the influence of a mid to upper level ridge center off near the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mid afternoon temperatures were in the lower 90s with some heat indices near 105 degrees. As far as temperatures are concern highs will be from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado. With that said, it looks like the most probable situation is that convection will develop across the higher terrain of Colorado and then slowly drift towards western Kansas. As a result, have the higher pops in the western zones and lower values to the east.
High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend before lifting northward.
18Z surface data indicates the cold front runs from eastern Wisconsin, down to KSTL, and then into northeast Oklahoma. After sunset, dry conditions will be seen along with clearing skies as high pressure moves through the area. Friday night: Significant short wave/cold front will move across the cwa, with showers and thunderstorms (some possibly strong) in the evening. This weekend: Models quickly return a zonal flow to the area, with warmer temperatures but dry conditions, as weak high pressure will be over the area.
The most noticeable difference in the airmass change will be a drier atmosphere on Friday, with heat indices only in the lower 90s.
The push of drier air into the region won't arrive until later in the day tomorrow, with dewpoints falling into the lower/middle 60s, making for morning lows in the middle 60s. The weekend will end on a warm but dry note with daytime highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. This warmth will continue into the beginning of the week as a mid-Atlantic ridge builds westward across the Southeast.
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front advancing slowly eastward across central Illinois, with the boundary essentially along the I-55 corridor. Once the front passes, skies will become clear and low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
With winds expected to be light tonight, overnight lows should have no problem dropping into the lower 60s over most areas.
Short wave trough apparent on water vapor imagery in central MT will track southeastward into SD and the northern fringe of the central High Plains by early this evening. Large scale pattern will be fairly amplified at the start of the period and will feature an upper level ridge across the Northern High Plains into Saskatchewan and Manitoba with northwest flow overhead.
1015 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A cold front will move through the region Friday triggering showers and thunderstorms.
Think it's probably prudent to leave the lowish POPs already in place going overnight.
And it's a little warmer than it was yesterday at this time.
Interestingly mid/upper heights built slightly over the Florida Keys as the broad ridge over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Southeast U. adjusted slightly, but just beginning to yield to the approaching trough in the easterlies.
707 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A warm front will push northward across the region this evening and overnight and a cold front will push across on Friday. After the cold front passes, the air will dry out and fair weather will follow for the weekend and into the new week.
1257 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight. A warm front will approach Friday then lift across the area Friday night.
Currently, low pressure was situated near Watford City along a trough situated from Saskatchewan through the western Dakotas.
Temps range from the low to mid 80s over northeast WY and far western SD to the low to mid 90s across parts of south central SD.
1005 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A trough of low pressure at the surface will extend across the Piedmont of Virginia south into the Carolinas through Friday.
1156 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A cold front will move through the region Friday triggering showers and thunderstorms.
Attention will then turn to the southward moving cold front associated with the upper trof diving across the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon/evening.
Will highlite the low RH and gusty winds in the FWF for western areas.
Upper trough/low over California will not move a lot through this weekend, but the upper ridging/high pressure stretching from nrn Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico will become reoriented farther north into Texas. This will allow increased southerly flow between the low to our west and high to our east and a resultant moisture transport northward into SE AZ.
Expect most areas over northeast Colorado to fall into the lower to mid 50s. For CAPE this evening, the best numbers are over the mountains, Palmer Ridge and far eastern border. CAPE decreases on Friday according to the models, with some over the mountains, foothills and Palmer ridge. For Temperatures, Friday highs are 0- 2 C warmer than this afternoon's. The upper ridge over the South will move North into southern Colorado Friday night and into the weekend.
A rather strong storm system near the upper Great Lakes was bringing a flow of warm and humid air to the area ahead of a cold front today. The actual cold frontal passage and change in air mass is not expected until Friday, and additional showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out ahead of the front on Friday, especially in southeast KY where the front will arrive the latest. Friday night the entire area should be dry as surface ridging builds in from the west. The drier air mass should also allow for somewhat cooler lows.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 90 69 90 / 40 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 87 67 87 / 30 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 87 67 87 / 40 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 63 85 / 40 30 10 0.
20z Visible to water vapor imagery clearly picking up on well- defined, closed low spinning over Wisconsin. Subsidence and dry air entrainment aloft wrapping in behind this low gradually clearing skies out from west to east across Iowa. On the heels of this system, another upper low is coming off the northern Rockies and is slated to propagate eastward.
738 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Low pressure will track northeast across the Upper Great Lakes tonight with a cold front moving east across the area.
907 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight. A warm front will approach Friday then lift across the area Friday night.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s, with highs on Friday into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Latest 19z WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a vigorous mid/upper level low over far NW WI fast approaching western Upper Mi. Radar imagery shows increasing shower coverage as forcing ahead of the mid-upper low combines with MLCAPE values 500-1000 j/kg highest over Menominee County. However, it won't be a day to go to the beach due to clouds/shra and temps struggling to get out of the lower 60s over the n central and ne fcst area where shra/cloud cover will be most persistent. Farther west and for downsloping locations south central in nw flow, high temps Fri could reach into the lower 70s with the possibility of afternoon breaks in cloud cover.
Upper ridging building over the area today has resulted in a much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The upper ridge breaks down on Friday as an upper trough moves east and sends a weak front toward the area. The combination of the weakening upper ridge, approaching boundary and increased deep layer moisture will lead to an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day on Friday. Outside of the showers and storms, hot and muggy continue with highs in the low 90s.
648 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Mostly clear skies overnight with some patchy fog possible across northwest Arkansas as temperatures fall into the lower 60s.
Stacked surface and upper level low pressure noted across northern WI this afternoon. Loss of weak diurnal instability with sunset, and gradual drying of the low levels behind the cold front, should allow these to dissipate by early this evening. The upper low and occluded surface system lift northeast away from the area later tonight and Friday, with modest height rises and subsidence developing across the forecast area during the day. Overnight temps tonight should dip to the low-mid 60's across the region, with highs on Friday generally between near 80 far north and the low-mid 80's central and southern parts of the cwa. Ratzer 224 PM CDT Showers and storms are possible Friday night as an upper level trough axis rotates through the region.
727 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A warm front will push northward across the region this evening and overnight and a cold front will push across on Friday. After the cold front passes, the air will dry out and fair weather will follow for the weekend and into the new week.
This activity is occurring along a pre-frontal trough axis, which is beginning to lift newd into the mid TN Valley area. The main cold front itself is still located from the Midwest swwd into the cntrl Plains and is not xpcted to approach the cntrl TN Valley until the morning hrs Fri. The push of drier air into the region won't arrive until later in the day tomorrow, with dewpoints falling into the lower/middle 60s, making for morning lows in the middle 60s. The weekend will end on a warm but dry note with daytime highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. This warmth will continue into the beginning of the week as a mid-Atlantic ridge builds westward across the Southeast.
841 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Cold front tonight into Friday.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery today depicted a progressive synoptic pattern that will persist for tonight and into tomorrow with a longwave trough over the central CONUS.
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 High pressure will shift east tonight as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible with the warm front after midnight tonight into Friday, especially in northern New York.
Not a whole lot has really changed from the previous forecast, with ridging largely in place through the next several days.
One other area to watch is the remnants of the cold front which is roughly along an Aspermont, Spur, Floydada, Plainview, to Tulia line.
932 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight and Friday and will gradually push east of the region Friday night.
The weekend looks to be dry and only slightly cooler.
257 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 The cool trend continues as northerly flow aloft continues to usher cooler air southward into the plains.
Strong upper ridging remains centered across the Great Basin region with northwest flow across the northern plains. Surface flow will become more southeasterly today as the high pressure moves east of the CWA. but the higher likelihood will be strong winds with the storms with DCAPE over 1200.
The lower atmosphere remains too dry to support more than virga and/or sprinkles at this time, so have opted to leave out of the forecast. The models indicate the next lobe of vorticity within the trough will shift from OK/AR southeast into central MS and AL. Convergence along an approaching (and weakening) cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms across the lower OH and mid MS valley as well.
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 342 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northwest MT and another upper trough over central ALTA.
The precip will diminish during the evening hours with precip in the east lasting the longest since the upper level trough is slowly pushing east. The trough will still be around tomorrow and with the upper level pattern still showing cyclonic flow a little bit of precip is still possible tomorrow.
449 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight then exit to the east early Wednesday.
We will continue with northwest flow aloft, with an upper level trough axis moving through the area tonight. Suspect that we will see a bit of a lull in the convection this evening, with rain chances picking up ahead of the upper level trough axis tonight.
309 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 H5 Ridging across the western CONUS continues this morning and has shifted slightly west over the past 24 hours. High pressure extended from northern Nevada west to off the coast of California. A ridge extended north into the Alaska panhandle and the Yukon this morning. Downstream of this ridge, a closed low was present over far northern Canada with a trough of low pressure extending south to Hudson Bay. convection will linger across northern Nebraska Wednesday morning, then redevelop Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches northern Nebraska. Further south and west, thunderstorm chances do not look nearly as probable, but given the strength of the cold front, felt at least a slight chance mention in the southwest was warranted here.
A weak cold front will push into southern Wisconsin late tonight and exit the southwest later Wednesday, with a northeast surge in winds down lake Michigan. As winds turn northeast behind the cold front, expect some cooling likely being most noticeable in the Southeast, especially near lake Michigan.
Aloft, northerly flow over our area shifts to westerly and then southwesterly as a deepening trough over the upper and middle Mississippi River Valley pushes a high pressure center currently over southern TX southwest into northern Mexico.
358 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Gulf moisture nosing back into the region this afternoon had allowed for a few showers to develop along and south/east of the Highway 59 corridor, but most of the region has remained dry today. Height falls on the order of 2-4 decameters tonight may result in enough of a surface reflection/trough to draw one or both of these boundaries inland.
Cool air will being pouring into the area tonight with cooler temperatures expected.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge lies across the Straits of Florida, with south to southwest winds of around 10 knots on our marine district. A strong, east- west oriented subtropical ridge lying across the archipelago of Cuba and the Straits of Florida will lift northward and over our region late tonight and Wednesday. This sharp ridge axis will move northward into the Florida peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. High temperatures will average in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the mid 80s.
At the surface, winds are light and daytime temperatures today have reached into the low to mid 80s across the area. While lower resolution guidance is struggling with this feature, the high-resolution guidance has persisted showing this activity throughout the day. as the high resolution guidance have indicated this trend as well. A stronger upper disturbance and associated cold front will approach the area Wednesday and move through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Hot and dry conditions to dominant for a couple of days before a new trough begins to move onshore from the west.
326 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Current upper level analysis shows high pressure spinning over the Great Basin region with weak low pressure near the OH Valley. Dry subsiding air is moving into the Panhandle region in the wake of the upper low, as seen on the latest water vapor imagery. along the intersection of the invading dry air aloft, and where some low level convergence is noted along a weak lee trough. Shallow low level moisture and light winds should result in at least some patchy fog early Wednesday morning before warming well into the high 80s.
The stage is basically set for the most significant actual cold front and associated widespread storm system that northeast Montana has seen for the last several weeks. Overall, precipitation model data has fallen into a fairly good consensus showing thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and rain showers lingering after the cold front through Wednesday. Overnight tonight into early Wednesday morning, the main push of the cold front will be evident with the arrival of a steady north wind. Given gusty east winds ahead of the front now, gusty and erratic winds from possible thunderstorms, and possible gusty winds with and behind the cold front, felt it was best to issue a Lake Wind Advisory to cover those chances. The inherited long range forecast remains in excellent standing depicting prevailing northwest flow aloft ahead of an upper ridge built up along the Pacific shore.
A ridge of high pressure remained positioned over NRN Nevada early this afternoon as deep monsoon moisture pooled over Arizona and Mexico. And finally, several sub-tropical disturbances were noted rotating west and north around the periphery of the ridge and are expected to impact the pattern by this weekend.
An initial impulse ahead of the main trough axis, located over eastern Kansas to central Illinois this morning, will move through this morning. Main trough axis shifts overhead around or shortly after midnight, but another ripple in the flow will move overhead on Wednesday for a continued chance of scattered showers. On the temperature front, continued below normal conditions are expected thanks to the cloud cover, rainfall, and lack of strong ridge in place.
Broad troughing pattern will continue into tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, but could be a degree or two warmer with a little less cloud cover.
Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as cloud clear a bit. Thunderstorm chances look to remain across the southern areas where a surface boundary may reside invof mid level theta-e ridge.
335 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Very good agreement and consistency with the models with a significant short wave trough dropping into the region from the northwest tonight into Wednesday. A leading weaker short wave trough from the west tonight and Wednesday along with waa will bring the first shot of showers and storms after midnight out west. With the clouds, rainfall, and northeast winds it will also be cooler mainly in the 70s for highs on Wednesday.
Additional brief MVFR cigs/vsbys may affect the terminals after 12Z on Wednesday as shra/tsra re-develop as a frontal trough and deeper moisture lift back north across the region from the south.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected near the Utah border. A strong ridge of high pressure centered to the northwest of the area will remain the dominant weather feature over the next few days. This will act to suppress the most widespread convection to the Mogollon Rim and southward with drier and warmer conditions near the Utah border. The ridge will begin to break down later in the week with a weak trough of low pressure developing off the coast of California.
Have nudged pops up over our southern zones as we should see storms fire over the San Juans by early this afternoon, right along the deeper moisture gradient, with cells tracking southwest as High Pressure strengthens over the Great Basin. Convection diminishes this evening with the ridge retreating back towards the west coast as a cold front works southward along the Front Range. Some moisture also works back into the area bringing an increasing potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along with more cloud cover and slightly cooler max temps. High chance pops look reasonable over the weekend with the higher elevations favored. Latest 8 to 14 day projections favoring cooler and wetter than normal conditions over the entire forecast area.
Diurnal convection will be possible over the higher terrain this late afternoon and evening. The upper ridge will be over the Great basin with perturbations in the flow moving around it into the region. PW values will increase to above 1 inch on the plains by the late evening hours as moisture and lift pick up due to increased frontogenesis ahead of the cold front.
Tmrw should see a little better environment for development, with additional pinwheeled energy around the mean trof, even if only a glancing blow, and little/no cap remaining with surface Tds hovering around 70F.
With very dry air above the low level moisture storms are not expected to be severe but could produce rather gusty winds given DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG. On Wednesday the day should start out sunny with a slow increase in clouds across the north as a cold front approaches. May see thunderstorms develop late in the afternoon with the cold front.
Strong high pressure over the region will maintain well above average temperatures across the interior through late week.
/issued 406 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues along an upper trough axis that extends from North Texas, through Central Oklahoma, and into Arkansas and Tennessee. Convective coverage will increase across the area tonight and into early Wednesday morning as the upper trough axis moves overhead. Rain chances should diminish somewhat Wednesday evening as the atmosphere stabilizes and the upper trough axis continues to slowly moves south.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Quiet weather continues throughout the day today with a ridge of high pressure still in place. Late afternoon and into the next period a cold front associated with the mid-level low brings with it another chance for showers and thunderstorms across the state.
A weak cold front is expected to move in from the north early Wednesday morning, providing a source of lift for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The highest risk for heavy rain will be for areas generally east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 20.
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
Decent shear and instability may support some strong to severe storms in the afternoon, especially along the cold front, but will also depend on morning convection. Precip will diminish towards evening as cool high pressure sinks into the region. Additionally on Wednesday, gusty northwest winds will be possible with the cold front. Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s, warmer across the south.
Upper level northwest flow is predominant over our area as we are sandwiched between an anomalously strong ridge over the west coast and a trough in the eastern United States. The upper level ridge will remain situated over the western United States with a more moderate northwesterly flow regime aloft across the central and northern plains.
1247 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 The main concern today is areal coverage of precipitation, especially along a weak cold front moving southeast across the Upper Midwest. This weak circulation, along with the weak cold front, will provide some showers/storms to redevelop during the afternoon.
Surface level high pressure still over the area, but weak upper level trough above us has lead to an increase in cloud coverage today. Currently there is some isolated convection occurring in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachian Mountains, which could slightly increase in coverage through this evening. However it pretty dry down in the Tennessee Valley, so I am not expecting storms to be able to move very far away from the higher terrain. Another quiet night is expected tonight with another chance for some convection along the higher terrain again tomorrow.
331 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Intensifying high pressure will bring hot to record-breaking temperatures to northeast California and western Nevada this week.
Although a northwest flow aloft will intensify somewhat this evening as a +70kt jet core transitions down the front of a building ridge out west, a weak shear profile, a weak and disorganized flow in the lower levels, and a lack of heating due to a prevailing cloud deck will limit precip chances across the region tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Clearing skies with surface dewpoints holding in the lower to mid 60s(F) for the most part will allow lows to fall well into the 60s(F) tonight. This will bring about a light southeast flow to western Kansas, tapping into slightly warmer air to our south. Look for highs pushing the lower 90s(F) Wednesday afternoon.