Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will also bring warmer temperatures by this afternoon, reaching into the middle to upper 40s across all of central Illinois. Temperatures will fall tonight, but increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too far, reaching down to just below freezing. This will bring warmer temps by this afternoon, reaching into the middle to upper 40s across the CWA. Temperatures will fall again tonight, but increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too far, reaching down to just below freezing.
High clouds continue to push east and temperatures will likely drop into the lower 30s, while the southeast will struggle to drop below 40.
231 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with arctic air spread out over the Canadian Plains and the Dakotas while Warmer pacific air has moved over the Pacific Northwest and intermountain West. Friday: With the front stalled out across the southwest and moisture from this and the previous day's snowmelt gets trapped up over it freezing drizzle and isolated snow showers may be possible over Petroleum county and Winnett.
537 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Surface analysis early this morning is showing that a warm front has moved north of St. Consequently, temperatures are warmer than the have been the past few mornings with readings in the 20s under increasing high clouds. Lows tonight will stay near freezing. There will be slight chance of rain over northeast Missouri on Friday afternoon in advance of a trough that will be digging into the Midwest.
High pressure will slide off to the east and increase our return flow by this afternoon.
Despite the cloud cover, warmer 850mb temperatures reaching 3-5C will result in highs from around 50 across southwest Nebraska, mid and upper 40s central Sandhills, to the mid and upper 30s far northeast. For tonight, and upper level trough will move across the Dakotas into central and eastern Nebraska after midnight. This will also bring in a cold front with a corridor of stronger northwest winds expected from the panhandle into southwest Nebraska during the afternoon. Highs still fairly mild from the lower 40s north to near 50 southwest.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through the area and turn winds toward the west which should help to warm things up some, but with some clouds and light winds expect temperatures to be warmer today, but have lowered the highs just a few degrees, especially in the northeast. Some clouds are expected to linger across the area tonight and with south winds and warm advection, expect temperatures to be a little warmer tonight. Temperatures should be a little warmer on Friday.
426 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 High pressure extending across the region will move off to the east today.
623 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 High pressure extending across the region will move off to the east today.
312 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Surface analysis early this morning is showing that a warm front has moved north of St. Consequently, temperatures are warmer than the have been the past few mornings with readings in the 20s under increasing high clouds. Lows tonight will stay near freezing. There will be slight chance of rain over northeast Missouri on Friday afternoon in advance of a trough that will be digging into the Midwest.
127 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 A stationary front or lee-side trough extends NW to SE this afternoon across central Montana, separating cold from the northeast to a milder Pacific airmass along the Front Range, where temperatures this afternoon are in the 40s (and a bit breezy). A subtle upper trough will move into the western states over the weekend and lock in the cold/cloudy but precipitation-free airmass over the area.
Amounts taper from around a half inch from Watford City to Bismarck and Ashley, to little or no accumulation over the southwest including Beach, Dickinson and Selfridge south. There is a small potential of some light freezing drizzle or freezing rain on the warmer west edge of the precipitation shield late tonight into Friday morning. Amounts of freezing precipitation right now are not expected to be impactful, but will need to monitor. Strong cold advection will develop behind the low that tracks through the forecast area Friday, bringing much colder air into the forecast area, along with some continuing light snow or flurries within the wrap around moisture that drops over the area during the day Friday.
We do have an upper level trough positioned over the central U. Could see some sub freezing temperatures in parts of south central MO tonight, but everywhere else should be above freezing in the mid 30s. It should warm back up into the low to mid 50s on Friday. On Friday night, we'll see the main upper trough axis shift east across the area along with a surface front and colder air moving into the region. A few of the models are spitting out some light QPF, mainly in the rain form as thermal profiles would keep things from changing to snow and above freezing at the surface.
Our attention this morning is on the expected development of an inverted trough to our east this afternoon/evening. While our eastern counties are expected to see some rain from this system, latest guidance shows that it may be tomorrow morning before our counties east of I-65 see any appreciable rain from this trough.
Rain shield associated with developing low pressure system in the Gulf has been slower to develop than previously expected, and have lowered POP values across the area for today. Still expect to see some light rain begin to develop by late this afternoon as the low deepens over the central Gulf. Best rain chances will occur tonight mainly across the Gulf waters and the adjacent coastal parishes of Louisiana and Mississippi when the low passes through the coastal waters. Gradually improving conditions are expected through the day tomorrow as the low departs to the east.
Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end of the week along with considerable cloudiness. High clouds streaming across the region this morning in association with a weak trough moving across the area.
There is a chance of freezing precip as temps at or above the surface will be above freezing. Keep in mind that road temps can support freezing despite air temperatures above freezing. TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with arctic air spread out over the Canadian Plains and the Dakotas while Warmer pacific air has moved over the Pacific Northwest and intermountain West. Friday: With the front stalled out across the southwest and moisture from this and the previous day's snowmelt gets trapped up over it freezing drizzle and isolated snow showers may be possible over Petroleum county and Winnett.
Otherwise, a much warmer morning commute with lows in the 40s.
1025 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the western CONUS, and a weak trough sliding through the central states. Today, warmer air will advect into the area as the frontal boundary shifts northeastward, allowing temperatures most places to rise into the 30s and 40s. Right behind tonight's wave will be another on Friday, accompanied by a cold front and more light precipitation.
The trajectory of this energy keeps the highest PoPs confined to the Cumberland Plateau early Friday.
Temperatures in the Snake Plain have warmed above freezing from the Eastern Magic Valley through Pocatello and Idaho Falls, though some cooler temperatures are still in place across the Arco Desert where some snow is still falling.
As we head into tonight and Friday, low pressure is forecast to develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and then move northeast over the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially near and ahead of the low pressure area.
This along with increased winds will keep temperatures warmer tonight and mitigate the fog potential. Low temperatures will stay fairly warm for this time of year with no freezing temperatures through the weekend.
1153 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Today: Good model consensus for narrow, fast moving band of 850MB moisture just ahead of trough moving through today. Weak cold air advection in wake of trough, which may temper temperatures this afternoon, but anticipate sunshine and downslope flow may offset some of the cooling.
1015 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 Strong hi pres ridge over the Mid Atlc generating a 25-30KT E/NE flow thru the H100-H85 lyr this mrng. These winds have more or less bridged the frontal boundary currently stalled over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region. Full blown SCA conditions continue today as a strong hi pres ridge centered over the Mid Atlc/New England maintains a fresh to strong E/NE breeze thru sunset.
This will also bring warmer temperatures by this afternoon, reaching into the middle to upper 40s across all of central Illinois. Temperatures will fall tonight, but increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too far, reaching down to just below freezing. Windy conditions are still on track for today as a strong low pressure system to the north draws strong southerly winds through central IL. This will bring warmer temps by this afternoon, reaching into the middle to upper 40s across the CWA. Temperatures will fall again tonight, but increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too far, reaching down to just below freezing.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with highs tomorrow ranging from the mid and upper 60s across the Big Country to the lower 70s elsewhere.
Temperatures at 10 AM were in the low to mid 40s and steadily climbing. Max temps in the low to mid 50s remain valid, and the rest of the forecast is in good shape. High pressure is currently over the eastern Ohio Valley. This high will allow one more day of dry weather for the Mid-South today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the low to mid 50s. This low is expected to move north today and tonight. As the low gets closer to the Louisiana coast, rain showers will start to move north into Gulf Coast states. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Models remain consistent with a nearly-zonal progressive pattern through the weekend followed by some amplification to the upper pattern as an upper level ridge builds over the West Coast then migrates slowly eastward.
Low and mid level gradients also look sufficient for locally strong wind gusts to continue overnight in the Arlington, Elk Mountain and over the Southern Laramie Range and I-80 Summit, so will continue the High Wind Warning there. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler in the wake of a passing cold front.
Extensive cloud cover combined with northeast flow and weak cold air advection into the region has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected this morning. Have lowered daytime highs by an average of 5 degrees from the low 60s into the upper 50s for the afternoon hours as the cloud cover and northeast flow will persist through the rest of the day.
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Surface analysis early this morning is showing that a warm front has moved north of St. Consequently, temperatures are warmer than the have been the past few mornings with readings in the 20s under increasing high clouds. Lows tonight will stay near freezing. There will be slight chance of rain over northeast Missouri on Friday afternoon in advance of a trough that will be digging into the Midwest.
Our attention this morning is on the expected development of an inverted trough to our east this afternoon/evening. While our eastern counties are expected to see some rain from this system, latest guidance shows that it may be tomorrow morning before our counties east of I-65 see any appreciable rain from this trough. High pressure will slide off to the east and increase our return flow by this afternoon.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 60s across the northern Panhandles to mid and even some upper 60s for the southern Texas Panhandle.
358 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows warm front over western SD, with low pressure to the northwest of the region.
The temperature may be just cold enough for a few of the pre-dawn hours at tri for some light freezing rain before warmer air changes precip to rain.
These low clouds continue overnight, with low temperatures in the low teens to mid single digits. Given temperatures aloft will be warmer than -10 C in the saturated layer, patchy freezing drizzle could mix with snow, but snow looks to be the dominant precipitation type, as colder mid-level clouds provide crystals for snowflake growth a majority of the time the lift is present.
Showers remain a possibility for tomorrow as well, primarily to the north of Tampa Bay closer to the warm front. By tomorrow night, another cold front will be pushing down the peninsula, brining a renewed source of lift and a better thermodynamic environment to support isolated severe storms.
As the light precipitation builds into these areas later tonight, continued chilling of the snow covered terrain and sheltered valleys; along with some evaporative cooling, could allow temperatures to drop to around the freezing mark for a few hours around daybreak in this area.
319 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 H5 analysis from this morning had low pressure over northern Quebec. A trough of low pressure extended west of this feature into western portions of the NW Territories of Canada.
Surface analysis late this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure along the East Coast of the United States while an area of low pressure is in the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure have allowed temperatures to moderate into the 50s across most locations as of 3 PM CST. Short term models continue to indicate the aforementioned area of low pressure moving northeast towards the Florida Panhandle on Friday. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.
206 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019 Building high pressure will bring warmer weather through Friday. A trough moving over California this weekend will bring cooler weather along with gusty winds in the mountains and deserts, and also for the coastal waters.
As pressure falls due to the progression of the low, winds at surface will increase.
230 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows warm front over western SD, with low pressure to the northwest of the region.
315 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Cold front is dropping south into central Saskatchewan mid afternoon with light snow with it. Another cold night is expected Sun morning with lows around 20 below with high pressure overhead. Long wave trough across central Canada and the Central Plains will shift over southwest Hudson Bay with the rest of the trough shifting north and east as long wave ridge builds over the western US by Thu. Ensemble means bring in cooler air for late Mon/early Tue.
Since winds will go light tonight with decreasing cloudiness during the early morning hours, will go with the latest NBM run, which is just a couple of degrees cooler than our previous forecast. A short wave moving across the Central Plains will push a dry and somewhat weak cold front across our area on Friday night.
Went on the higher side of guidance for highs tomorrow considering ample sunshine along with a dry sw/w/nw llvl flow in place. The weak cold front associated with an upper level disturbance passing to the north is still expected to push through the region Friday night.
Coverage will begin to decrease from south to north after midnight, as the warm front lifts north through the area. Stalled boundary across Lake Okeechobee will slowly begin to lift northward overnight as a warm front ahead of another approaching system from the northwest.
A trailing cold front will take its time drifting east through the area, likely not pushing east of Milwaukee until about 3-4am Friday. Although air temps are generally above freezing, pavement temps are still below that mark causing any light rain/drizzle to freeze on those surfaces. High pressure briefly pushes across the area later tonight into Friday.
A cold front will cross the region this weekend bring gusty southwest winds and a chance of snow and rain showers.
Much warmer evening across the area versus yesterday at this time thanks to increasing WAA bringing thicker cloud cover and stronger southeast winds which are gusting up to 20 knots on some obs.
Winds are blowing pretty good downwind of the Blue Mountains, with some near 50 mph gusts near Alpowa Summit and Alter Ridge and 30-40 mph gusts around Pullman and Pomeroy.
1029 PM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 Current surface analysis shows warm front over western SD, with low pressure to the northwest of the region.
1040 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 Currently - A pressure ridge extending down the Atlantic Coast states is retreating northeastward as the parent high lifts out into the Atlantic and pressures fall in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds across the Keys are gentle to moderate out of the east with the highest winds over the Florida Straits. Short Term Update - Winds will trend downwards overnight as the ridge retreats northeastward and the pressure continues to fall in the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure to our north will retreat overnight, resulting in winds gradually decreasing over Keys waters.
As the light precipitation builds into these areas later tonight, continued chilling of the snow covered terrain and sheltered valleys; along with some evaporative cooling, could allow temperatures to drop to around the freezing mark for a few hours around daybreak in this area. This wave/jet streak will increase the low-level jet enhancing isentropic lift/moisture return. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 45 55 38 56 / 90 70 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 44 52 38 52 / 90 80 60 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 48 43 52 36 51 / 90 80 60 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 42 49 35 47 / 70 80 70 30 20.
There were a few light radar echos ahead of the trough, however a dry layer below 700 mb was keeping most of the precipitation from reaching the surface. A noticeably colder airmass will filter in behind tonight's cold front, resulting in a chilly weekend.
A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after 08-09Z with a wind shift to the northwest.
356 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Low pressure and associated surface fronts will continue tracking across the area today, driving our weather. Fog has the potential to shift/expand east through the remainder of the morning, ending over the Coteau this early afternoon before a cold frontal passage. Light snow showers have traversed the northern CWA this morning as well, and while they should exit the area by mid- morning, sounding profiles suggest a deep enough moist layer to support the possibility of freezing drizzle east of the James Valley, again, until this afternoon. Saturday will feature high pressure and much colder air, with highs in the single digits. Mid level ridging will slowly/gradually expand east/northeast into the region, thus pushing the main storm track further north through time, and also pushing cold air intrusions further east.
A weak cold front may try to sneak into the region early Saturday morning but looks to stall out across the Rolling Plains by sunrise.
530 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Mild temperatures will continue today until a weak cold front moves across the area this evening and brings decreasing temperatures through the weekend. The cold front will also bring light precipitation to the region for tonight through early Saturday morning. The precipitation will be mainly rain or snow, but some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible as the precipitation ends later tonight.
Today Through Saturday Night Latest mesoanalysis and WV sat imagery shows lee troughing ongoing over the Cntrl US. This will lead to the development of a progressive longwave upper trough on Fri. Temps will hold steady around the low- to mid-50s, with lows dipping back into the upper- 30s. Sat, the aforementioned upper trough will dig S/Ewrd into the S/Ern US, acquiring a more negative tilt before lifting back towards the NE Sat evening. As the low stalls, an associated cold front will enter the state from the NW, and sweep through most of Ern AR. Despite the weak fropa, temps on Sat will not vary too greatly for most of the region, with slightly cooler highs, and lows just below the freezing point felt across far Nrn AR.
Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. Expect some warming before precip arrives, though some areas are still expected to be below freezing. Mainly slight/low chances for rain are expected across the region, though the higher terrain areas across Wrn MD and Nrn WV are expected to be closer to more favorable upper support and deep layer moisture with precip more likely. With cold air in place at the sfc, and cooling upslope SE flow, a period of light freezing rain is expected across Ern Tucker and Garrett counties. Some brief, patchy, light freezing rain is possible across Preston county through the Laurel Highlands if precip occurs this morning. An upper trough is progged to dig across the Central CONUS tonight, crossing the Upper OH Valley region Saturday.
A quiet weather pattern is expected though tonight as an upper level ridge builds across the Western United States with a trough of low pressure at the surface moves east of the area.
Warm layer is most pronounced across northwest Iowa, and may lead to a little sleet or freezing rain prior to more intense precipitation to saturate the column. Forecast soundings hint that ice within the dendritic zone becomes difficult to come by on the western edge of the precipitation shield, and may see precipitation try to switch back to freezing rain/drizzle. Of greater concern will be the increasing northerly wind drawing cooler air into the region tonight into Saturday. Winds remain relatively light for much of the period, but will increase from the northwest after 14/00Z, behind a cold front pushing through the area.
Fog is expected to erode later this morning with the arrival of greater low level mixing in cold air advection behind the cold front currently across western North Dakota. Visibility has fallen below one mile in Mobridge and Pierre with this fog bank, and will monitor how visibilities trend in North Dakota should a short Dense Fog Advisory become necessary. As the low departs into Minnesota later today, very light snow may briefly expand into southwest North Dakota with the baroclinic zone on the leading edge of cold high pressure. Temperatures are expected to reach their highs this morning across the area, and fall through the afternoon as the high builds in. Across the southwest, some stratus may remain on the western edge of the arctic air, and thus lows will be relatively warmer near zero.
Light winds will become northwest and increase a bit overnight Friday night/early Saturday, as a relatively weak cold front passes through the region.
High pressure from the northeast continues to dominate the weather pattern and this will hold through the weekend. Weak ridging aloft will give way to zonal flow through the early weekend.
Cooled hourly temperatures slightly across northern Nebraska as current thinking is cooler air will move in slightly sooner, a couple hours or so. Precipitation type will be all snow as temperatures on Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the teens to low 20s across north central Nebraska and in the 20s and 30s across western and southwest Nebraska.
600 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Under partly cloudy skies and northeast to east winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting isolated, mainly light showers near the Lower Keys and the adjacent coastal waters. A deepening mid and upper level trough (500 mb and above) over the nations midsection and extending equatorward to the Bay of Campeche early this morning, will progress eastward today before crossing the Florida Peninsula southward to the island of Cuba by early Saturday morning.