Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a large upper level ridge axis moves over the area while at the surface a weak pressure gradient exists with southwest winds of 5 to 12 mph. the upper ridge axis remains over the area during the day then east of the area during the night as an upper level low and its associated trough move into northwest Nevada. High temperatures warm up into the low to mid 70s.
Much cooler tonight with frost possible in sheltered areas at higher elevations The frontal boundary moved through the region this morning. Some light winds will over the lower elevations will likely keep frost from developing overnight in the northern parts of the forecast area. The winds will also not be very conducive for frost development either, however, some sheltered areas in the higher elevations could experience some frost.
The cold front is nearly across the forecast area this morning. Temperatures will only slowly rise into the 60s in the lower elevations and cooler in higher elevations in the wake of the front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 67 45 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 65 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 65 43 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 61 39 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Tranquil weather (and much cooler) conditions are prevailing across the region this morning in wake of the strong cold front that moved through the area last night. Current temperatures are in the 50s with a stout northwesterly breeze, so in spite of the clear and sunny sky that has developed, highs will struggle to climb much above the mid 60s across our area today! This is a stark difference (and about 20-25 degrees cooler) than what we've seen for the past several days. High pressure will continue to slide eastward tonight, as upper ridging builds into the Plains. Thus, expect rather chilly overnight lows as our temps fall into the lower to mid 40s. The short term period will be dominated by high pressure at the surface and a ridge building in from the west.
1001 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Temperatures have warmed this mornng and the threat for frost or freezing temperatures has ended. An upper level ridge will begin to work in from the west bringing a warming trend to the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight will be warmer than this morning, but we could still see some patchy frost across our far northwestern zones. An upper level ridge will be working east across the forecast area. A cut off upper low will track out of the Rockies and across the central plains.
Rising heights and WAA will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, falling into the mid to upper 30s.
High pressure will remain in place through Sunday, continuing generally sunny skies and warm, above seasonal normal, temperatures.
1244 PM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Strong upper level ridge will bring mostly clear and dry weather over the next 36 hours.
(the last time most locations fell into the middle 30s was May 5th) Some areas of central KS are seeing some patchy frost on elevated surfaces, as the main ridge axis passes over the region, so will keep the front advisory going across central KS until it expires at 13z. Looks like a nice weekend will be on tap, as the ridge axis slides south of the area, basically cutting off any kind of moisture return into KS. Ketcham * VFR conditions over the next 24 hours Very low impact aviation conditions expected over the next 24 hours thanks to high pressure overhead. As the high shifts east, the surface wind will switch from more of a westerly direction to more of a southerly direction.
Meanwhile, most Florida Keys island communities have enjoyed a sunny, warm, and dry day! At the moment, heavy rain has ended in the lower Keys, while scattered showers continue developing along a plethora of slow-moving, converging outflow boundaries across a swath of the lower Straits of Florida and extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A regional view of geostationary satellite image animations from the visible channel show a decaying cold front moving southeastward from the Carolinas across the Florida Panhandle and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will continue disintegrating as it approaches central and southern Florida later tonight and tomorrow.
1214 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 315 AM CDT Breezy and cool conditions today with slightly warmer conditions Sunday. The area sits on the backside of the upper-level trough that pushed through overnight with an area of high pressure starting to move in from the west. Winds behind the trough will be breezy out of the west-northwest with sustained winds 10 to 15 MPH and gusts upwards of 25 to 30 MPH. Additionally, the system has brought in colder temperatures aloft which will keep our afternoon highs today to around 60 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 40s and some upper 30s in spots. The area of high pressure moving in will keep skies mainly cloud-free throughout the weekend.
An upper level ridge continues to progress eastward into the intermountain West. The ridge axis will become centered over Nebraska by Sunday morning. At the surface, high pressure builds to the south. Drainage winds out of the west in the North and South Platte river valleys will help drive lows below freezing, while lows in north central Nebraska will be more moderate in the mid to upper 30s. Went with 25th percentile of the NBM as the 50th percentile has been running warmer than observed overnight temperatures. Cooler temperatures in the low to mid 30s may develop due to drainage in the river valleys.
/issued PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/ Heights will continue to build this evening through Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastward. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday afternoon with a small increase in thickness values. Surface lee pressure troughing will re-establish itself on Sunday bringing low end breezy conditions.
527 PM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021 This morning's H500 hand analysis map was showing a deep trough swinging across Eastern NOAM. ridging and mainly clear skies over the remainder of the CONUS. and phasing low pressure off the Pacific Coastline. The flow aloft will be backing to the Southwest overnight as the upstream trough moves closer to shore and pushes the ridge into the lee of the Rockies. This will be ushering in milder air then more wind and elevated moisture by Sunday night as the trough energy digs into the Western Great Basin. Temperatures will be milder with this shift in winds aloft ending the threat of the low valley freezing temperatures the next few nights and boosting temperatures up a few more degrees on Sunday.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 50s across much of the area, with a few locations in west Tennessee already in the mid to upper 40s. /issued 206 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/ Finally feeling like fall across the Mid-South, courtesy of a strong cold front that moved through yesterday. The robust north to northwesterly flow building in with high pressure behind the front will continue to bring in cool, dry air this weekend.
Low pressure will begin to influence the forecast are late Sunday night with increased clouds and a few showers.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Sunday/ Benign weather in the short term is in store for North & Central Texas as the high pressure in place will remain dominant over the region. Most areas will bottom out in the low to mid 40s.
/issued 206 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/ Finally feeling like fall across the Mid-South, courtesy of a strong cold front that moved through yesterday. The robust north to northwesterly flow building in with high pressure behind the front will continue to bring in cool, dry air this weekend.
626 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 High pressure will continue in control of the area through the period.
Sheltered areas will likely see temperatures drop into the upper 30s with some light frost not out of the question in the low lying valleys of the eastern Ozarks. Heights will also initiate an upward trend as an upper level ridge builds into the nations midsection.
Clear skies along with a much cooler and drier night continues across Middle Tennessee. Building high pressure and dry air already in place setting the stage for VFR conditions through the period.
High pressure will continue to build into the area from the west. Much cooler tonight with frost possible in sheltered areas at higher elevations The frontal boundary moved through the region this morning. Some light winds will over the lower elevations will likely keep frost from developing overnight in the northern parts of the forecast area. The winds will also not be very conducive for frost development either, however, some sheltered areas in the higher elevations could experience some frost.
528 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 As the upper-level trough that provided the variable weather this week lingers across the Great Lakes region, a ridge shifts into our area today bringing a return to a period of quieter weather. This downstream trough is taking its time as it departs, keeping us in a tight surface pressure gradient today. The upper-level ridge axis makes it way across the Northern Plains tomorrow, reintroducing lighter winds, clear skies, and above normal surface temperatures.
932 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Old cold front is situated across SE Ga/N Fl. High pressure will continue to build in across the CWA.
833 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Much cooler, more seasonable temperatures are in store to close out the weekend, lasting into the early part of the work week.
625 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 High pressure over the Four State region will bring VFR conditions over the next 24 hours with winds becoming light. Northerly winds currently ranging from 5 to 10 kts will fall off quickly over the next few hours and tomorrow the position of the high atop the region will make for either light northeast or variable winds.
This afternoon a mid level ridge was present over the western states and into Canada while a trough was progressing across the eastern CONUS, leaving the central Plains in northwest flow. Light westerly winds continue as high pressure remained the south over Texas this afternoon. Sunday the mid level ridge will move into the Plains as a trough moves across the eastern Pacific resulting in warm advection again with clear skies. Highs are expected to warm into the lower to mid 70s across the area.
The trajectory of the low is likely to take more of a southward trajectory before reaching the Inland Northwest, giving our area very limited chances of precipitation this time around.
Overnight lows generally around 70 degrees although to the north and west of I-4, some of the cooler air behind the front will arrive and bring low temperatures down to the low-mid 60s. A weakening line of showers is expected to precede the front with the higher potential closer to DAB, which carries VCSH through 06Z before most activity remains over the Atlantic.
Surface ridging will build in from the west tomorrow, but slowly. However, with 850 mb temps about 2 C warmer and more sunshine, should see highs return to the upper 50s to around 60. As ridging builds in early this week, expect temperatures to increase. Pleasant weather is expected for the early part of this week as ridging continues to build over the area.
327 PM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Clear skies, dry air, and light winds tonight will allow for strong radiational cooling in the high mountain valleys and low lying areas. Light downslope warming will continue to keep the lower foothills and adjacent plains a few degrees warmer. The warming trend will continue under persistently clear skies Sunday as the ridge axis moves over Colorado. Expect highs Sunday afternoon several degrees above normal, in the mid 70s across the plains and 50s to lower 60s in the high country. The next trough should be coming on shore to the west by Sunday evening, and we might start to see a few high clouds coming in ahead of it.
725 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Composite trough axis with coldest air aloft, 0C at 850mb, is directly over Southeast Michigan this evening. Cooler airmass settling over the region has kicked the lake-effect machine into gear this afternoon.
614 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Quiet, cool, and dry weather persists through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Upper-level analysis early this afternoon depicts a large-scale trough making it's way toward the northeast US coast as ridging over the western CONUS amplifies. Some diurnal cumulus are noted across east-central IL where cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing trough is present. Northwest flow aloft remains positioned overhead, which has allowed cooler than normal temperatures to settle into central IL. As of 3 PM temperatures are sitting in the upper 50s to low 60s, which is surprisingly only a few degrees cooler than normal for mid October. An upper trough moves onshore the Pacific Northwest to start the new week.
Warmer daytime temperatures are expected this weekend with easterly winds this evening becoming southwesterly Sunday.
908 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Temperatures were lowered by a few degrees in areas north and west of Tulsa and in the lower valley areas of southeast Oklahoma given latest trends.
There are a few showers associated with the cold front north of Dixie county. Cooler air advecting over the still very warm waters of the Gulf will result in steep lapse rates and excellent mixing down of stronger winds.
The mid level troughing over the northern Bahamas tilts westward into a highly sheared upper cyclonic circulation over the Keys and south Florida with additional height. The recent blossoming of showers is occurring under the upper level circulation/shear zone in a light northwest lower tropospheric winds as high pressure centered of the southern Plains states bridges over the weakening cold front, the latter feature slowly moving into the extreme northern Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, temperatures were in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Overnight, the cold front should move through the northern half of the Florida Peninsula per stability guidance, with a weak pressure gradient along the southeast periphery of the high pressure over the southern Plains the dominant source of the light northerly winds.
This may be the last mostly sunny day for quite a while as the pattern shifts from periods of high pressure to a long-duration series of storms.
616 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Weak ridging is starting to build into the region this afternoon which will shut of the CAA that has been ruling the region.
400 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Upper level trough over the eastern U. Following this some weak ridging builds in through midweek before the next trough sets up late in the week. Meanwhile at the surface the cold front will continue moving south across the region early this morning and exit the area by afternoon. High pressure over the southern Plains will then move east into the southeast states through midweek then shift out into the Atlantic Ocean late in the week as the next cold front approaches from the northwest. For today we'll continue to see some clouds a few showers this morning along and just ahead of the cold front. For tonight and Monday northeast winds around the high moving into the southeast states will keep humidity levels comfortable.
1017 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 As the upper-level trough that provided the variable weather this week lingers across the Great Lakes region, a ridge shifts into our area today bringing a return to a period of quieter weather. This downstream trough is taking its time as it departs, keeping us in a tight surface pressure gradient today. The upper-level ridge axis makes it way across the Northern Plains tomorrow, reintroducing lighter winds, clear skies, and above normal surface temperatures. While these 850 temperatures are only 90th percentile according to NAEFS/ENS guidance, GEFS/EPS forecasted max surface temperatures are in the low 70s, which are 10-15F above normal.
Behind the frontal boundary is a robust area of high pressure that will extend over the southern United States and the Florida Peninsula through the middle of the workweek. This morning, an elongated mid to upper level low is creating disorganized weather over Cuba, parts of the Florida Straits, and the Bahamas. Nevertheless, organized deep convection is not expected to develop this afternoon due to limited moisture content in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere.
341 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will build slowly east into the area through mid week. Meanwhile aloft, the upper trough over the Eastern US will move offshore during the afternoon with strong synoptic scale subsidence overspreading the area this evening and tonight. However, pattern recognition suggests that a favorable upstream flow and moisture pattern into the area could result in the development of some orographic cirrus in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians that could impede the outgoing radiation, resulting in warmer min temps, especially across the northern Piedmont. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, which for most locations, will mark the first 40 degree temp reading since May. Min temps again in the lower to mid 40s, with some upper 30s in the colder outlying/rural areas.
This evening through Sunday night Upper-level ridging has moved into the area, but the ridge axis is still to the west of the area. As the weekend progresses, that ridge axis will shift eastward over the area continuing to keep the forecast warmer and drier. Fog lifts out by midday, while still remaining warmer and drier. As the ridge shifts eastward during the day Sunday, southwesterly flow ahead of the next trough will advect warmer temperatures and moisture but a wind maxima is progged to move over the area Sunday afternoon and into early Monday morning.
Lows will drop back into the 40s with even a few upper 30s in the normally cooler location in the north.
306 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Dry high pressure remains in place, with warming temperatures. The 500mb ridge will slide directly overhead tonight.
357 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper level trough was shifting east of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions early this morning, with an upper level ridge over the Rockies. Warmer high temperatures are expected on Monday with the upper level ridge right over MO by this time, along with south-southwest surface winds, and continued full diurnal solar insolation.
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude ridge in the upper levels over Texas. Temperatures this morning are around 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. This will begin the return of a warmer, moister airmass. Temperatures, both lows and highs, Monday will be around three to five degrees warmer than Sunday.
Southeast Michigan still immersed within deeper layer northwest flow defining the back end of a gradually recovery upper height field as the mean trough axis clears the great lakes. Deep layer stability held firm within confluent mid level northwest flow and general low level ridging ensures benign weather conditions Monday.
Dominant high pressure system in control. NW winds 5-10 sustained most places today, higher in the higher terrain. Some patchy frost is possible late tonight up in the northeastern reaches of the forecast area, and in sheltered areas of the higher terrain.
An upper level ridge continues to progress eastward into the intermountain West. The ridge axis will become centered over Nebraska by Sunday morning. At the surface, high pressure builds to the south. Drainage winds out of the west in the North and South Platte river valleys will help drive lows below freezing, while lows in north central Nebraska will be more moderate in the mid to upper 30s. Went with 25th percentile of the NBM as the 50th percentile has been running warmer than observed overnight temperatures. Cooler temperatures in the low to mid 30s may develop due to drainage in the river valleys. Warm and mostly quiet weather will continue through Monday as the ridge progresses east. Behind the ridge, an upper level trough and associated low will become centered over Utah on Monday evening.
This should be the only morning where we get quite this cold, however, with the high pressure centered over Middle TN for the next couple of mornings we will continue to see better radiational cooling we otherwise would. For this reason, I'll blend in some of the lower ensembles to drop forecast lows slightly below guidance.
Marine air returns later this afternoon as sea breezes strengthen and cooler and more humid air will begin to spread inland. Cooling spreads farther inland on Monday as onshore flow strengthens with gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts, and the marine layer deepens with drizzle in the low elevations and fog up into the mountain passes. Fair and warmer weather returns for the remainder of the work week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Evening Update: The low clouds are no longer expected to materialize tonight, but we may see some patchy low clouds by Sunday morning, expanding by late Sunday afternoon. By late Monday, the trough will be moving eastward, and a slowly building ridge will set us on a fair and warmer course for the remainder of the week.
For today, high pressure will continue to build into the region from the west and northwest.
Temperatures will rebound this afternoon into the low 70s following a chilly start to the day this morning. Decent cooling will still be realized with lows in the low to upper 40s, but increasing cloud cover will hamper additional cooling.
The upper flow pattern is transitioning to a warm southwesterly flow today, and most of the region will have temperatures similar to slightly warmer today than yesterday. Cooler temperatures are expected in most of central Idaho and western Montana as a closed low pressure system passes to the south. Moisture is still expected to wrap around the low, into the Lemhi County Idaho, and southwest Montana, but there has been a slight shift southward with the track of the low. Snow levels will lower with the low, especially Monday night when the probability of measurable snow accumulation is high at around 70 percent at Gilmore Summit, but impacts should be minimal with the probability of 1 inch of snow being low.
/Issued 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/ /Through Sunday Night/ Ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air will result in quiet weather across North and Central Texas through Sunday night. It will be mild on Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s. /NEW/ /Monday and beyond/ Ridging aloft will shift slowly and steadily east through the Plains while an upper low enters the western CONUS on its heels.
Temperatures look to be in the 60s, although some areas may reach into the low 70s. Through the short term period, a ridge presently over the western CONUS will gradually drift eastward and center over the plains states by Sunday afternoon. The aforementioned ridge will begin to slide off to the east of the area Monday afternoon. By Monday night, the ridge will be centered over Illinois/Wisconsin and continue sliding off to the east while simultaneously breaking down.
High pressure over the Plains will continue to build and shift eastward across the ArkLaTex today. Benign weather conditions continue on Monday as the high pressure moves east across the southeastern CONUS. Return flow from the departing high will bring slightly warmer temperatures, but still below average for this time of year. With winds turning to the east- southeast late Monday night, low temperatures will be slightly warmer than tonight's readings, especially south of I-10.
/Updated at 0707 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/ A strong cold front has pushed into the Florida Panhandle. Forecasted lows are leaning toward the cooler end of guidance and believe this is the way to go. Left the lows unchanged and just made some minor changes to the hourly trend. With clear skies and weak low level winds, should be good radiational cooling conditions, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.