Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a light freeze is likely across northeast portions of the CWA so will go ahead and issue a Freeze Warning for Brooks and inland Kenedy counties for early Sat morning as temperatures fall to or just below freezing for a couple of hours early Sat morning. Dewpoints will warm Sat night and temperatures will remain above freezing even as radiational cooling is expected again tomorrow night.
Clouds are streaming in from the west this morning as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest. The trough will bring light snow to Baker County late today and the Idaho mountains north of the Snake Basin this evening.
There are some pockets of freezing rain, however, there is good warm air advection happening which will cause any freezing rain to change over to just plain rain very soon. Some patchy fog will be around the area, mainly in the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain Foothills this morning. This system will move out by tonight and be replaced by another high pressure ridge which will persist through Saturday night.
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 North to northwest winds increasing in response to tight pressure gradient extending northeastward toward a strong and large low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the upper level low deepens and associated surface gradients tighten wind speeds will increase this morning. In the wake of the winds tonight will be cold with all areas dropping below freezing.
Winter weather advisories have been issued across the Lower Clark Fork, Missoula, Bitteroot, and Seeley-Swan valleys, where a few inches of snow are possible through the evening commute. Pleasant weather is expected Saturday as high pressure develops across the Northern Rockies.
1005 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Skies have temporarily cleared across much of the TN Valley this morning, in the immediate wake of a cold front now pushing eastward over the southern Appalachians. However, a mid-level vort max currently crossing northern MS will bring an increase in mid and high- level cloud cover as it moves swiftly northeastward through the region in the flow around a cold core upper low dropping southeastward across western IL. The upper low will shift east into northeast KY and OH overnight. 5 inch atop the higher plateau locations in Franklin and northern Jackson Counties. Max temperatures will be held in the lower 40s for valleys and middle to upper 30s atop the higher plateau regions.
1123 AM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Rain, and then snow showers return to the region today and continue over the weekend as a low pressure system advances into western Pennsylvania. A strong low pressure system situated in eastern Iowa will continue to slowly advance southeast today. Strong frontogenesis over the ridges of West Virginia early this afternoon has been consistent in the last few Hi-Res model runs.
Winds will decrease out the west northwest this evening under clear skies as high pressure moves over South Texas. Surface ridging from a 1025 mb high near Clovis, NM will continue to amplify across South Texas today while keeping keep dry and light northerly winds intact. As the high slowly departs into the Gulf by Saturday afternoon, light southerly flow unfolds along with rising thicknesses.
Winds should start to calm down after sunset so tonight should be calm with mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 30s.
Skies have temporarily cleared across much of the TN Valley this morning, in the immediate wake of a cold front now pushing eastward over the southern Appalachians. However, a mid-level vort max currently crossing northern MS will bring an increase in mid and high- level cloud cover as it moves swiftly northeastward through the region in the flow around a cold core upper low dropping southeastward across western IL. The upper low will shift east into northeast KY and OH overnight. 5 inch atop the higher plateau locations in Franklin and northern Jackson Counties. Max temperatures will be held in the lower 40s for valleys and middle to upper 30s atop the higher plateau regions.
221 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Following the passage of a cold front, dry and cool conditions will overspread the area into the weekend, with breezy conditions during the day Saturday.
Dry air will be ushered into the region through the day today in the wake of a cold front, with no rain chances through at least the weekend. Although, the highest winds are expected to occur over southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama.
320 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Upper level support will continue into this evening a as vorticity lobe pivots north/northwest into the region in advance of main upper low pressure center. Forcing from this vorticity lobe will pivot northwest of the area overnight and wash back over the area as the upper low progresses steadily off to the east on Saturday.
1120 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 A deep closed low was currently centered in southeast Iowa. A lobe extending from the upper low center in southeast IA extends northwest into nctrl SD. Regarding the high winds, the GFS bufkit sounding at BBW shows 65KT winds at the top of the mixed layer (near 775 mb) at 7am cst. As the upper low advances east into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes tonight, northwest flow will exist across the Rockies and High Plains. Highs slightly warmer from the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Surface-850mb height/wind fields should begin to relax within the next few hours in response to the progression of the deep-layer cyclone away from the area.
222 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Rain, and then snow showers return to the region today and continue over the weekend as a low pressure system advances into western Pennsylvania. Given warm sfc temperatures accumulations will be limited to the higher terrain which could see an inch or two. Scattered snow showers will once again develop in eastern Ohio later in the morning before expanding in coverage to the northeast during the afternoon as the upper low and cold air aloft moves overhead.
The cyclone has filled in and begun to gradually weaken and move away to the east. showers will likely linger into or through tonight as the low moves away, but again, any amounts from now only will be perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of liquid/tenths of an inch of snow at best.
Expect afternoon highs to range from the mid to upper 50s in the Big Country, to the lower to mid 60s across the southern half of our area.
236 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Satellite data and observations showing a very large area of low pressure centered over far western Illinois.
Upper level low pressure will pivot east across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Areas west of I-49 may reach the lower 40s as they may see some afternoon clearing.
High pressure will hold over the region through the weekend in spite of a disturbance which will produce increasing north winds Saturday.
Today, high pressure from the the southwest as allowed temperatures to rebound to above normal / above freezing for most locations. Rain and snow will be limited to the higher elevations of central and southern Montana.
/Issued 221 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021/ Powerful upper level low that has been anchored over the Midwest the last couple of days is finally beginning to move off to the east this afternoon. A dusting to a couple tenths of an inch accumulation could be possible for some areas, but little to no impacts expected through the evening as temperature remain well above freezing. These will continue through the afternoon and begin to slowly wind down this evening and tonight as the upper low moves off to the east.
351 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 An impressive mid latitude cyclone responsible for yesterday's frontal passage and today's gusty winds continues to spin across the central U. With this high centered nearly overhead, the weekend is shaping up to be cold, but generally tranquil.
Will leave the High Wind and Red Flag warning going until 5 PM this afternoon. Models show a weak upper trough move down in the northwesterly flow aloft late tonight into Saturday morning. The low level winds should be a combo of normal drainage patterns and downsloping tonight. Northwest flow aloft around an upper level high off the west coast will prevail over Colorado Saturday night. A few flurries may linger into the early evening over the mountains from the exiting trough.
Strong high pressure builds over Northern California this weekend, allowing temperatures to rise more.
945 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Following the passage of a cold front, dry and cool conditions will overspread the area into the weekend, with breezy conditions during the day Saturday.
This Evening Through Friday Deep upper low is spinning over the mid-Mississippi valley and strong northerly jet that contributed to the high winds has shifted to the east. Upper ridge is moving over the Plains behind the trof with high clouds advancing over the area. A weak system will slide down the ridge late tonight into Saturday.
A rigorous upper level low over central Illinois this afternoon will pivot eastward up the Ohio River Valley into Saturday morning. Although the 500mb trough axis pushes east of our region on Saturday, some energy on the backside of the system may lead to some light snow/flurries in our northeastern counties through the day.
417 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 A large upper level low over the middle Mississippi River Valley will slowly move east across the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday.
540 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 The stacked low pressure system over the Mid Mississippi Valley will pull away slowly to the east tonight. The eastern edge of the dry slot will move through the remainder of Missouri into Illinois tonight as the low drifts eastward.
This afternoon, the area remains under the influence of the upper low which is vertically stacked and, thus, has only progressed from eastern Iowa into central Illinois. Precipitation has already begun to decay and as the upper low continues to move off to the southeast, snow will come to an end this evening with the loss of lift and moisture. Temperatures fall into the 20s tonight which could lead to some refreezing of wet roadways, so caution should be exercised if traveling tonight and Saturday morning. The upper low shifts into the Ohio Valley during the day Saturday as another wave ejects across the Plains.
Lingering effects from the recent cold front are starting to dwindle this afternoon. As long as these low clouds linger there could be a few flurries or very isolated freezing drizzle. The air behind it is slightly warmer than our current airmass so expect temps to warm to slightly above normal for Saturday.
Cold front moving through the E Gulf this evening is tail end of Great Lakes blizzard storm system with cool and breezy W-NW winds to filter over the local area later tonight through Saturday with cold advection strato cu off the E Gulf as well. A closed upper level low pressure system approaching the Northeast and its associated cold front pushing into the Gulf of Mexico the afternoon and into Saturday. The highest chances of rain will be across the Big Bend given that the frontal boundary is expected to weaken as it moves across the Peninsula.
Eastern South Dakota is currently seeing some of the higher winds gusts, with blowing snow noted on webcams. Patchy freezing drizzle has also been observed. Buffer soundings indicate the loss of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, more widespread freezing drizzle will be possible. May need to replace the blizzard warning in eastern SD with a winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle and blowing snow.
139 PM PST Fri Jan 15 2021 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend with mainly light winds, weak to moderate inversions, and mild temperatures.
A compact upper low will continue to shift southeastward across IL this afternoon, with the combination of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft and a deep mixing layer enhancing the magnitude of gradient flow at the surface. We expect sustained winds to remain in the 15-20 MPH range with frequent gusts of 25-30 MPH for the rest of the afternoon, and although sufficient insolation has occurred to allow temps to reach the lower 50s, an increase in cloud cover from the west should result in progressively cooler readings from this point forward. The only exception to this may be in the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN, where accumulations up to 0.
Most areas could see a bare trace to a few tenths of an inch on grassy surfaces (especially given warmer temperatures and sunshine today).
Will still monitor for threat of light freezing drizzle over the next few hours, though no strong indications of development seen just yet. The vertically stacked low pressure center continues migrating southeastward this evening, causing a relaxation in the pressure gradient and therefore decreasing winds. One additional issue that may be introduced this evening through midnight is freezing drizzle. Continued modest lift in the lowest saturated levels may cause liquid drizzle to fall while surface temperatures remain below freezing.
353 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 An impressive mid latitude cyclone responsible for yesterday's frontal passage and today's gusty winds continues to spin across the central U. With this high centered nearly overhead, the weekend is shaping up to be cold, but generally tranquil.
506 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 Winds easing this afternoon with gusts below warning levels across the area we had outlined in the High Wind Warnings. Allowed the High Wind Warnings to expire on time at 5 PM this afternoon.
247 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 Tonight, an upper ridge will move eastward away from the Northern Rockies and a few weak disturbances will move southeastward over the region. Any snow amounts over the lower elevations should be a half inch or less, and in the mountains amounts could approach a few inches. An upper ridge will move over the region Saturday night and bring weak subsidence and dry conditions.
Within the last hour, gusts over 40 mph have substantially decreased, so we'll let the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory expire.
302 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Lingering effects from the recent cold front are starting to dwindle this afternoon. As long as these low clouds linger there could be a few flurries or very isolated freezing drizzle. The air behind it is slightly warmer than our current airmass so expect temps to warm to slightly above normal for Saturday.
Deep low pressure over the Midwest has resulted in a tight pressure gradient over the region, and thus gusty WNW winds throughout the day today. /issued 353 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021/ An impressive mid latitude cyclone responsible for yesterday's frontal passage and today's gusty winds continues to spin across the central U. With this high centered nearly overhead, the weekend is shaping up to be cold, but generally tranquil.
244 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 A few high clouds are moving into northern portions of the CWA this afternoon as a weak transitory ridge moves through. maybe a wee bit more for the highest elevations.
Dry and mild conditions will prevail as high pressure ridging expands through Saturday. Abundant sunshine will be seen away from the immediate coast on Saturday, while northerly ridgetop winds pickup in the evening and overnight, mainly along Cape Mendocino. Temperatures aloft will gradually warm through Saturday, particularly across the southern half of the area where 850 mb temps of 15-17 degrees Celsius will correspond to afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s in the interior valleys of Mendocino and Lake County this weekend.
459 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 A few high clouds are moving into northern portions of the CWA this afternoon as a weak transitory ridge moves through. maybe a wee bit more for the highest elevations.
344 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 This afternoon, the area remains under the influence of the upper low which is vertically stacked and, thus, has only progressed from eastern Iowa into central Illinois. Precipitation has already begun to decay and as the upper low continues to move off to the southeast, snow will come to an end this evening with the loss of lift and moisture. Temperatures fall into the 20s tonight which could lead to some refreezing of wet roadways, so caution should be exercised if traveling tonight and Saturday morning. The upper low shifts into the Ohio Valley during the day Saturday as another wave ejects across the Plains.
A cold front currently positioned from Daytona Beach to Fort Myers will continue to press to the southeast through the remainder of the evening and overnight. Latest radar imagery depicts very light showers streaming ahead of the cold front, mainly offering visibility reductions and little to no accumulation from Daytona to Orlando. Cold front sagging from KDAB to KSRQ is producing light to moderate showers south to KMLB this evening. A cold front continues to sag across the local waters, leading to gusty winds associated with light showers.
534 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Satellite data and observations showing a very large area of low pressure centered over far western Illinois.
655 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Following the passage of a cold front, dry and cool conditions will overspread the area into the weekend, with breezy conditions during the day Saturday.
315 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 A rigorous upper level low over central Illinois this afternoon will pivot eastward up the Ohio River Valley into Saturday morning. Although the 500mb trough axis pushes east of our region on Saturday, some energy on the backside of the system may lead to some light snow/flurries in our northeastern counties through the day.
538 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Northwesterly winds will continue to diminish this evening as high pressure settles overhead.
/issued 122 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021/ Today has a weak upper ridge building in from the west. after that high pressure will return.
Observations and short-term guidance suggest a few areas of patchy fog will develop tonight along the leading edge of the lower stratus. Lingering effects from the recent cold front are starting to dwindle this afternoon. As long as these low clouds linger there could be a few flurries or very isolated freezing drizzle. The air behind it is slightly warmer than our current airmass so expect temps to warm to slightly above normal for Saturday.
221 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021 A deep cut-off low over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley drove a strong cold front into the area yesterday. Surface ridging that was overhead yesterday will shift east today with southerly flow returning to the area. Another cold front is due to arrive this evening, but you won't notice much change behind this front.
Tranquil conditions will continue today and tonight for the most part as a northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while a northwesterly downslope flow in the lower levels reinforces a dry air mass through much of the Western High Plains. Above normal temperatures are likely today despite the weak cold front pushing through western Kansas by early afternoon. Warmer air in the lower levels will spread into western Kansas within a westerly downslope flow ahead of the boundary, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C before the passage takes place. Under plenty of sunshine, afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower/mid 50s(F).
Classic deep occluded upper low with a plume of dry air wrapped all the way up into its center. There has been some patchy drizzle at times, but with most observing stations reporting temperatures above freezing, haven't had any persistent freezing drizzle reported. Forecast soundings do hint that freezing drizzle is possible for a few locations before the atmospheric column can fully saturate.
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Satellite data and observations showing a very large area of low pressure centered over far western Illinois.
Cold front has shifted southeast of the area, and will lead to a somewhat chilly start to the day with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s over much of the area by daybreak. It will remain dry across the area, with cooler than normal temperatures into the afternoon as highs are only expected to reach into the 60s.
Cooler air will continue to filter into the region tonight in the wake of a deep upper low that will continue to push into the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be near the freezing mark throughout the region. Winds should start to calm down after sunset so tonight should be calm with mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 30s.
346 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021 A deep upper trough will dominate the eastern half of the country during the short term. A couple of short waves will move through the trough across the southern Appalachians.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed upper low shifting eastward across the Ohio River Valley. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing in eastern Colorado.
914 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Snow showers continue to occur across the Mid-South this evening as a potent upper level low pressure is tracking across Southern Illinois. Expect temperatures to drop below freezing across portions of West Tennessee after midnight. Currently, low pressure was centered over northeast Missouri.
An upper-level high pressure ridge will provide a brief break in the unsettled weather through Sunday morning.
Amplified upper ridge builds over the western portion of the country and will eventually shift east over the weekend as an upper trough works onto the west coast. Saturday night will be a bit warmer in the lower to mid 20s.
230 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021 Wx map continues to show the large vertically stacked sfc to upper level cyclone over most of the Northeastern U.
Most of the area appears to be hovering right around freezing with locations on the Plateau below freezing. Nonetheless, snow appears to be the predominant prcp type despite some surface temps above freezing. Temps today will be on the chillier side with the western two-thirds struggling to reach 40 and parts of the Plateau likely struggling to make it above freezing. With the low tracking through southern IL/IN, could see some additional moisture on the backside which may bring a dusting to some counties along the TN/KY border and those in the northern Upper Cumberland.
Persistent ridging at the H5 level continues to our west, with troughing to the east.
No Dense or Freezing Fog Advisories at this time, but one may be issued overnight based on observations and webcams. This includes the Lower Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys. Temperatures in the Blues are in the mid to upper 30s while the Basin is in the lower to mid 30s--and indicator that the inversion is becoming stronger with a more likelihood of fog development tonight. The high pressure ridge will be centered over WA/OR/CA tomorrow for dry and stable conditions. Any fog or freezing fog in the lower elevations will gradually decrease during the day--or not at all. The low level inversion will be strong; the top of the inversion will be as high as 8000 feet. Although the ridge flattens Saturday night, there may be low clouds and fog across the Basin again.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ Longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS places North and Central Texas beneath a dry northwest flow pattern, which should remain in place through the weekend. /Issued 246 PM CST Fri Jan 15 2021/ /Saturday Night Onward/ A strong upper trough and its associated weak surface cold front will move through the forecast area Saturday night.
Snowfall amounts from a dusting to around a half inch were common across northwest AR this evening, the result of wrap-around snow along the backside of the very impressive upper cyclone over the Ohio valley.