Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
336 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 Upper-level flow over West Texas will trend more westerly today, then southwest this evening, as an upper-level trough quickly moves from the West Coast into the Great Basin. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge will develop over West Texas with 850mb temps rising to over 20 degrees C. The first high impact day will be on Thursday when a short wave within a broad trough ejects out over the south-central Plains. However, it should be noted that the low level thermal ridge will not be co-located with the 500mb wind max which is where we typically increased fire activity. Areas near the Texas/New Mexico state line that will see the highest winds have also seen the least amount of recent rainfall.
The closed low was noted on satellite imagery spinning overhead here in central Mississippi. The closed low is progged to track southeast tonight and be just off the Mississippi Gulf coast by sunrise. The best chance for any measurable rain tonight will continue east of the low. /22/ Tonight through Wednesday: Overall the upper low will gradually slide southeast into the Gulf of Mexico as we go into the evening. Expect a gradual dropoff in precipitation as the isentropic lift continues to wane as the closed low dives into the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow will return both at the surface and aloft on Thursday in response to a deepening trough over the Plains.
Snowy roads will be common across the lower Idaho Panhandle while freezing temperatures and fog create travel hazards across the remainder of the region. Cooler and showery weather is forecast through the weekend. Unfortunately, temperatures are cooling near freezing and within the last 30 min, the airport transitioned from drizzle to freezing drizzle with a trace of ice accumulation on the ASOS. Will be making some calls in the coming hours to decide if the areal flood watch needs to continue or could possibly be dropped before Wednesday afternoon as cooler air begins to move in and we have now ended any threat for significant rains. Weak lift into the low clouds is squeezing out drizzle in the form of freezing drizzle at KGEG.
Today Through Thursday Night Satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low near the Arklamiss region this morning.
There will be some variable clearing across the aforementioned area as the lower clouds and cirrus erode slowly from the northwest into the WFO PAH forecast area. Stronger warm air advection will take place on Thursday, with some slight erosion of the cap (south of the warm front) over Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois late Thursday night.
Zonal flow aloft tomorrow will help weak lee troughing develop at the surface bringing winds out of the west. The broad trough entering the CONUS through central California tomorrow will gradually dig farther south as the system shifts eastward by the end of the week, leaving any remaining moisture associated with it well behind.
Low pressure system moves from Gulf into region later this morning. This will be caused by an approaching low pressure system, currently over Alabama, moving east. Both the ECMWF and the GFS have the upper level low digging to the southeast through tomorrow, trying to cutoff from the main flow. However, it is out ahead of the upper level low, indicating that the showers and storms may be somewhat elevated in nature, or just higher ceilings then typical fronts.
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Dry air continues to push in from the northwest this afternoon as upper-level low pressure over eastern LA/AR gradually drifts to the southeast, leaving the majority of the CWA very quiet this afternoon. Plentiful heating but no real mixing/advection has resulted in very mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, setting a reference point for tomorrow's warmer conditions. Record-setting warmth is expected across the region tomorrow as the thermal axis translates eastward and surface convergence along and ahead of a weak cold front enhances mixing of the warming temperatures aloft. Cold air will follow behind the system, but the upper trough will take more of an easterly path and keep the coldest air east and north of the CWA.
/issued 820 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017/ Mid/upper-level ridging continues to be displaced by a well-defined upper low making its way across LA/MS this evening. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure is moving along the central northern Gulf coast region, with a trailing cold front extending out into the Gulf. So far, rain has not yet reached our outer coastal waters, but expect that to change within the next several hours as the low shifts into the Gulf and toward the state. An area of low pressure will move through the waters on Wednesday, with rain and occasional thunderstorms, along with elevated winds and seas, expected throughout much of the day.
1241 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Showers will be possible through tonight along a weak cold front.
Winds beneath the ridge are near 5 knots resulting in a beautiful afternoon with temperatures near 70! The light winds and reduced BL mixing has allowed RH values to remain in the mid to upper 30s across the eastern half of the area, thus reducing the fire danger. There remains considerable disagreement amongst the 12Z deterministic guidance with respect to the timing of the low's passage, but there remains less variability in the track of the cyclone through Kansas. This projected track would take the center of the low through the CWA and used a blend of the GFS/EC in the timing of the low passage. There may be some elevated showers attendant to the lifting warm front/theta-e advection on Thursday, but thermodynamic profiles are not terribly supportive of convection.
Upper low over Mississippi will move slowly southeast into the northeast Gulf today. Tonight showers will end as upper low moves southeast. Low level moisture will remain with mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 50s.
432 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak low pressure moving southward toward Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
The upper level low pressure system currently spinning over the Mid South and Mississippi River Valley Region will continue to slowly move away from the Missouri Ozarks tonight. Fog will be most likely along and east of the Highway 65 corridor and along and south of the I-44 corridor. Winds will be breezy across much of the region as the low will track from southwest Kansas towards northwest Missouri.
High pressure will strengthen across the region through Thursday bringing a warming trend. This high will remain in place through the upcoming weekend maintaining very warm and dry conditions.
Summer-like pattern will continue today with ridging aloft providing high temperatures again in the lower 90s inland. Ridge of High pressure across the region will lead to light and variable storm motion at 10 mph or less with scattered strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph and minor damage the main impacts although the slow storm motion may lead to some localized/temporary flooding issues. The ridge as the surface will also lead to hot and humid conditions with max temps well into the lower/middle 90s inland with heat indices topping out around 100 degrees each afternoon while the Atlc coast will peak in the upper 80s until the sea breeze pushes through.
646 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A low pressure system will begin to approach the area today. Went just slightly warmer than guidance with temperatures starting out pretty warm already this morning. A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight and move through on Thursday.
clouds will continue to wrap around the upper low pressure area to our north and across our region with breezy west winds remaining through the night. May still see a few showers across the northern CWA this evening as precipitation wraps around the back side of the low. High pressure settles in on Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s east. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest.
319 AM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 A significant warming trend will take place over the region into the weekend as high pressure builds over Central California. Temperatures this morning were generally 2 to 5 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Upper level high pressure, currently centered over the Central California coastline, is forecast to build over the region, resulting in triple digit temperatures for much of the San Joaquin Valley, surrounding foothills, and the desert.
A cold front will increase shower and storm chances tonight and Thursday. Dry and warm weather can be expected today under slowly-eroding high pressure.
A cold front associated with this feature will cause temperatures to cool some. The strongest winds will be in the higher terrain along the Continental Divide, but widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph should be anticipated. A strong ridge of high pressure is still on track to create very warm conditions for the Northern Rockies this weekend.
404 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
325 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Quieter weather in store for today with the CWA feeling influence from upper level ridge to the south. An upper level low centered just south of Arizona today will slowly progress eastward today and tonight, reaching central Texas by Thursday afternoon.
420 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A low pressure system will begin to approach the area today. Went just slightly warmer than guidance with temperatures starting out pretty warm already this morning. A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight and move through on Thursday.
Surface wise, a western atlantic ridge extends across the sunshine state and well into the Gulf of Mexico.
The area of lift is associated with a weak short wave trough rotating around a strong upper low over the Northern Plains. Upper level trough continues to move east today across the northern high plains and into southern Manitoba and Ontario.
249 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday.
Freezing level tonight is near 14,000 feet with the wet bulb zero at 11,600 feet. This was expected today and expect it to continue again for Wednesday, but better chances along the western edge of the forecast area as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep most of the area fairly dry. The high pressure over the area will weaken and the shower and storm coverage increases.
320 AM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure will produce summertime conditions with afternoon highs in the 80s for the Sierra and 90s to near 100 across western Nevada this week.
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning indicates that an upper level low was located southwest of Tucson, Arizona over the northern part of the Mexican state of Sonora.
344 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Sw flow aloft continues across our region, as an upper low cut off from the main jet continues to drift slowly ewd across nrn mexico/sw CONUS.
359 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Warm front located from northern Illinois to southern Ohio will move northward toward northern Ohio today. This boundary is expected to move across the area this evening with a cold front following closely behind for the overnight hours. The cold front may not move east of the Ohio/Pennsylvania border until late thursday afternoon.
Water vapor imagery showing a trough extension dropping over central MN with secondary front moving across the region. Will continue the low pop trend and mention isolated showers. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected. Low level moisture/warm air advection is forecast to ensue Thursday night on the nose of the Low level jet.
647 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure builds in from the north and shifts offshore tonight. A warm front will approach by Thursday morning increasing the chance of showers.
1218 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Water vapor imagery placed an upper low pressure system in North Dakota with the upper trough extending south into Nebraska. At the surface, the associated cold frontal boundary was oriented to the southeast of our CWA in far southeast Nebraska into eastern KS. The upper trough axis will shift east of the Missouri River early Wednesday, with weak surface ridging settling in during the day. At the onset of the extended Wednesday night, flow across the conus will be split with an upper low pressure system translating into Ontario/upper Great Lakes region and another upper low cutoff from the flow in Texas, with ridging in the desert southwest.
405 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Mostly clear skies remain over eastern Kentucky this morning, allowing for temperatures to quickly drop into the lower 60's except for on the ridge tops. This is in response to the large northern stream upper low currently over northern Minnesota interacting with southern stream jet axis ushering subtropical moisture into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
410 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will ridge south into the commonwealth today.
110 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will push across northern Vermont and New York with little fanfare this evening. The next chance for precipitation isn't until Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front sparks showers and possible thunderstorms.
157 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
216 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A weak cold front will pass through from the north overnight. High pressure will then build eastward across New England through Thursday.
A few showers and thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain in VA, NC and TN this afternoon. There will be a weak cold front dropping south toward the Ohio Valley region Thursday. The question will be where does the cold front hang up, given this will have the biggest implications on the sensible weather.
Axis of Broad high pressure ridge remains across central Florida with associated weak gradient flow from the SSE to SSW.
Strong high pressure building over Nevada results in warmer conditions today, but turning very warm by this weekend. High pressure centered over central California keeps northeast and east central Nevada dry for the next two days. The higher resolution models do show some late day instability over the Sierra that "drifts" eastward. Otherwise sunny skies and warmer conditions prevail today and Thursday. Strong ridge continues to strengthen and sit over the southwestern US to end the week and into the weekend.
This will not bring any cooling today, and in fact temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer today than yesterday. A second slightly stronger trough will move through late tonight into early Thursday. This will push a cold front through the CWA and reduce high temps Thursday by 5 to 7 degrees compared to today. Tomorrow afternoon, behind the cold front, winds will be out of the northwest in the Treasure and Western Magic Valleys average 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph, while winds in SE Oregon will be about the same as today, with just a little less gustiness. Upper level ridge builds strongly over the region through the weekend.
Precipitation associated with an upper low moved to the east overnight. Thermal ridge during the day will warm temperatures to near 80 in most areas.
A cold front will move south into the area, with thunderstorms possibly forming along and behind it later this morning.
Atlantic high pressure ridges across the waters through the period.
1045 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front will usher in breezy conditions late Wednesday into Thursday, while the primary shower risk will be in the mountains. Expect cooler temperatures Thursday, before a substantial warm up. Evening update: An area of middle to high clouds continues to spread into the region in advance of the approaching cold front. I only made minor adjustments to some areas which were running a little cooler than guidance. Cote' 06Z TAFS: Middle to high cloud will impact the TAF sites over the next 24 hours as as mainly dry cold front pushes in.
259 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow, except temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. The airmass may have a little bit more CAPE, but an upper level ridge is going to begin developing, adding some subsidence into the mix.
The area of lift is associated with a weak short wave trough rotating around a strong upper low over the Northern Plains. Upper level trough continues to move east today across the northern high plains and into southern Manitoba and Ontario. If anything weak ridging is forecast at 500mb.
350 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Upper level low continues to move across the Northern Plains with trough axis extending into eastern Nebraska early this morning. At the surface, a weak cold front was quickly dropping through the CWA providing a brief increase in northwest winds behind it. High pressure will build overhead today and remain over the area through early Thursday when return flow begins to set up.
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALOFT. Quasi omega shaped ridge straddling CA today supporting another warm day across interior areas as as heights at H5 remain steady at 580DM. 850 temps will hover in the low 20's (C) which isn't superhot but will likely translate to another afternoon of max temps reaching the upper 90s and near 100 across the hottest interior valley locations.
High temperatures will rise throughout the week as high pressure builds aloft.
Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the southeast through the short term, with a continuation of summer-like conditions. High temperatures will reach well into the mid 90s inland, and upper 90s possible on Thursday with slightly cooler near the coast after the seabreeze moves inland. Low temperatures area-wide in the low 70s.
Ridge will be slowly weakening and thus moisture flow will increase into the area the next few days.
a stalled cold front is currently located across southern MO. the cut-off upper level low should be moving into SW TX. The closer proximity to the dynamics of the low will bring showers and thunderstorms chances CWA wide.
With the mid/upper level low rounding through the Big Bend, areas across the southwestern CWA and farther south will be in a favorable divergent upper level pattern to help sustain the complex. If tonight's MCS tracks farther south of the CWA then on Thursday we should recover in time for the main synoptic scale forcing with the upper level low to generate another round of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall over the area.
305 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Canadian high pressure will build into the region today, and will move east of the area Thursday.
Will keep a mention of some convection even after 02/00Z as upper low impacts become more prevalent.
251 AM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure will produce summertime conditions with afternoon highs in the 80s for the Sierra and 90s to near 100 across western Nevada this week.
333 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure builds in from the north and shifts offshore tonight. A warm front will approach by Thursday morning increasing the chance of showers.
628 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Warm front located from northern Illinois to southern Ohio will move northward toward northern Ohio today. This boundary is expected to move across the area this evening with a cold front following closely behind for the overnight hours. The cold front may not move east of the Ohio/Pennsylvania border until late thursday afternoon.
The slow moving area of low pressure will reach NW minnesota around daybreak. winds will also be gusty out of the southwest to west as much cooler mid level air with 850hPa temps of only a few degrees above zero C pushes into the region.
Most likely highs will range from 83-88 and then cool into the upper 70s to the low 80s this evening.
342 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 A weak cold front will move into the area today accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity.
555 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure centered over eastern Canada will ridge south into the commonwealth today.
Although fog development is possible, will hold off including until the extent of the higher clouds dissipating is realized. This upper low with its upper level diffluence and large scale lift will interact with old outflow boundaries and a southward moving cold front today. For tonight and Thursday the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue as the upper low moves slowly east across west Texas.
417 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Slightly cooler and less humid air will arrive behind the front. Difficult forecast with regards to convective potential into this evening as a combination of a prefrontal trough/outflow and main cold front all have potential to spark showers/storms until their passage. Main cold front still residing across central Iowa and only making slow progress. solutions expand from initial area increasing in coverage/intensity to new convection firing back on the main cold front.
Cool airmass will shift eastward with the low, and highs will be in the 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills. Upper ridge flattens Thursday as a clipper begins pushing into the region.
A cold front will increase shower and storm chances tonight and Thursday. Dry and warm weather can be expected today under slowly- eroding high pressure.
114 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front could then approach the region late in the week and become stationary this weekend.
419 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 The low level ridge which has been located to the west of Alabama the past few days will shift the eastward and the flow will become southwesterly. The models have been showing a zone of deeper moisture shifting northeast across Alabama today, and the higher concentration of convection should be across the northern half of central Alabama today.
Surface obs show high pressure building into northern KS and a diffuse frontal boundary somewhere across east central KS. An area of low pressure was noted over the northern plains where a closed upper low was spinning. Water vapor also indicated an upper low over the southwest. With this split flow over the central plains and a general lack of organized forcing, think the surface ridging will be the main factor in the forecast for today and tonight. By this afternoon and evening, continued dry air advection should continue to push the higher probabilities for precip south. Have trended highs a little warmer as the RAP and NAM forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing to around 800MB.
This cooler marine air coupled with a weak upper level disturbance will bring showers to the area starting this evening and continuing into Thursday. A strong upper level ridge will expand into Western Washington Thursday night and peak over the weekend--bringing much above normal temperatures. with afternoon highs generally ranging from 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. This system works its way through the area for much of the day Thursday before being forced northward Thursday night by an amplifying upper level ridge. ranging from the lower 60s along the coast to right around 70 in the interior lowlands.
331 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2016 The ridge along the left coast this morning will be slowly spreading across the Intermountain West through the short term period. Warmer tempertures building aloft will begin to limit afternoon instability while also translating to surface temperatures pushing above normal. PVU fields suggest a very weak wave dropping southward across the CWA tomorrow afternoon on the leading edge of the building ridge. High pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest late this week bringing hot and dry conditions to the region.
629 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Canadian high pressure will build into the region today, and will move east of the area Thursday.