Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1158 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Latest water vapor imagery early this morning is showing a large upper low over northern Illinois. The latest run of the HREF is showing that the upper low will slowly move off to the east today. There may still be some partly cloudy skies over the northern and eastern counties as the low moves off, but subsidence in the wake of the low and HREF precipitation probabilities favor keeping the forecast dry today. Will go with mostly clear skies tonight into Tuesday as a upper ridge builds into the area. With mainly sunny skies across the area today and warming low levels, will go with highs that warm about 5 degrees warmer than yesterdays, with highs on Tuesday climbing around another 5 degrees.
Issued by National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 324 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region later today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
155 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 An upper level low will move slowly east across the lower Great Lakes from today through Tuesday causing scattered showers and cool temperatures. High pressure will build in from midweek into the weekend providing mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Clouds and showers associated with upper low over northern Indiana will spread into the northwestern part of the forecast area late today. The upper low will move across the region tonight into Tuesday. Lows tonight will dip into the the mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday reaching the low to mid 70s. Expect lows Tuesday night to drop into the lower and middle 50s. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
Cloud lines have spawned in the lee of the Lower Keys producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and a handful of waterspouts. The Atlantic ridge established over the Florida peninsula continues to promote light southeasterly breezes across our waters.
148 PM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Current surface map trough across northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota. with weak cold front across northern Montana. Thick smoke layer aloft trapped in upper level ridge, while surface based smoke is starting to limit visibility behind the trough. Period of breezy northwest winds are expected behind the trough this afternoon. Upper ridge remains in place Tuesday with more smoke/haze.
205 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 An upper low is located near the southern tip of Lake Michigan this afternoon, and has an expansive cloud mass surrounding it, far more than yesterday. The slow movement of the upper low has resulted in cloudy skies over nearly our entire area today, and this was handled in the morning update. With clear skies already found to the west, and the upper low beginning to move east, and expected to pick up it's pace tonight, clear is confidently forecast. No matter where, after today's cool day, you might want to shut those open windows tonight! Sunshine and surface ridging will bring a fantastic day to the area Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Cooler temperatures will continue through midweek with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Overall, the potential for significant rainfall is there today, with adequate shear and the remnants of Kay (weak trough) moving into the area. The remnant low starts to wash out into a trough/wave and should begin to lift to the north and east late tonight and Tuesday.
305 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A big cyclonic swirl, (+36 1e-5s abs vorticity) closed upper level low pressure system, is slowly churning/drifting across the Michiana region this afternoon. Strong geopotential heights will rise differentially across Southeast Michigan in response to the closed upper level low drifting east of Southeast Michigan.
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level trough/low is centered over the Midwest, and upper ridging is building over the Four Corners region. The upper ridge to the west will expand over the region today. The upper ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Southeast New Mexico south to the Big Bend on Tuesday afternoon as low-level moisture interacts with the higher terrain.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) The morning sfc analysis indicates that the much advertised cold front has slipped S of the region, into SE TX/Cntrl LA into Cntrl MS. Drier air continues to spill S in wake of the fropa, with this trend expected to continue through the afternoon once mixing is maximized ahead of sfc ridging over Ern OK/Wrn AR. Otherwise, some cirrus may spill ESE across portions of Deep E TX into Cntrl LA around the base of the upper trough over Cntrl TX into Cntrl LA and MS. Although weak cold advection has ended with the onset of mixing, slightly cooler temps are expected this afternoon given the cooler start to the morning, and strong insolation which has resulted in a rapid rise in the mid-morning temps given the dry air mass in place.
There's only a small chance for isolated or scattered showers/storms across the southeast this afternoon as the mid-level portion of the trough passes by, but the drier air should greatly limit coverage. Cool, Fall-like temperatures are expected in the morning with lows ranging from the lower 50s northwest to lower 60s southeast. For now, the entire CWA has zero PoPs in the forecast for at least the next 5 days as ridging remains in place at the surface and aloft.
The upper low continues to be slower than forecast in moving east, and now I've updated to lower highs in the central areas, and keep the sky cloudy through around 5-6 PM. ERVIN 06Z surface data has low pressure over Lake Michigan east northeast of Milwaukee. High pressure ran from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Upper low across northern Illinois will keep areas of rain going through the morning generally along/east of the Mississippi and along/north of I-80. As the upper low moves toward Indiana in the afternoon, the rain will slowly end from west to east. Tonight dry but cool conditions will be seen as high pressure builds in from the Plains.
Farther north, cooler temperatures and increasing humdities behind the front will limit fire weather conditions. To the south of the front, over far west central and southwest North Dakota, it will be warmer, but winds are currently not expected to be strong enough to warrant critical fire weather conditions. Tuesday will be breezy but cooler with highs in the 60s north to 70s south, and afternoon humidities will drop to around 25 percent in the northwest and far southwest with sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph.
1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) Sfc ridging continues to build in over the area behind yesterday's cold front. H500 cyclone will continue to slowly push east from the southern Great Lakes toward the Northeast, providing NW flow over the state.
158 PM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A ridge of high pressure will slowly slide east through the central and northern Rockies through Tuesday. Look for slightly cooler temps on Tuesday behind the front. As the ridge axis shifts east, southwest flow will develop over our mountains late Tuesday resulting in a few showers over the Absaroka/Beartooths by Tuesday evening.
Only concern for overnight is wildfire smoke aloft streaming in aloft from the Pacific Northwest over ridging upstream. Otherwise a closed upper low over the Midwest and aforementioned ridge will continue to block moisture flow into the region, bringing dry conditions, light winds, and mostly clear skies tonight and Tuesday. Expect slightly warmer conditions Tuesday as we mix through a warmer low level inversion and upper ridging over the Rockies starts to build eastward.
1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Weak 500 mb troughiness over the BRO CWFA, courtesy of closed 500 mb low pressure moving over the Great Lakes area, will prevail during the forecast period. The immediate three coastal counties and the lower Texas coastal waters represent the areas with the best chance for precipitation with this synoptic situation in place.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes region will continue to slide northeastward through the short term period with an associated cold front extending all the way into southern Texas. This boundary is expected lift northward this afternoon as a warm front. While the boundary will remain well north of the CWA Tuesday, weak coastal troughing will keep a slight chance of isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the forecast for mainly coastal counties and over the waters. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs generally in the 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
238 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Smoke continues to push in aloft, following along the upper ridge. At the sfc, low pressure will set up across central SD tonight with some light southerly breezes already ahead of it. Winds will shift to the east in the northern part of the forecast area behind the low pressure trough on Tuesday and become breezy. The main challenge will be temperatures given the elevated smoke and the placement of the trough.
Water vapor imagery easily revealed the strong cut off low pressure currently over Chicago. Low temperatures will likely fall into the lower to middle 50s as winds will only begin to switch to the south by morning. Tuesday: High pressure across Arkansas will lead to southwesterly winds and clear skies. Expected Synoptic Pattern: Ensemble cluster analysis is in good agreement that the upper level ridge will continue to build and maintain itself across the central US through the rest of the week and weekend.
With the ridging more or less squarely over the area and best moisture well to the west, the prospect of meaningful rain in our CWFA is dim.
1155 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Slow-moving storm system which brought rain to the area late last week continues to drift east through the southern Great Lakes, allowing an upper ridge to begin building into the northern Plains today. Skies remain cloud-free tonight, though we could begin to see some high-level smoke layer begin to stream across the region around the upper ridge.
There's only a small chance for isolated or scattered showers/storms across the southeast this afternoon as the mid-level portion of the trough passes by, but the drier air should greatly limit coverage. Cool, Fall-like temperatures are expected in the morning with lows ranging from the lower 50s northwest to lower 60s southeast.
306 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) A surface cold front continues to slowly push through the NW portion of the state this aftn ushering in some lower dewpoint temperatures and clearing sky conditions. Did someone say fall? Tuesday morning low temperatures will range from the low 50s across north GA to mid 60s across southeast GA (roughly 2-5 degrees below normal). Dry conditions expected on Tuesday with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Drier and cooler for the short term. Discussion: The upper low over the southern Great Lakes Region will move east then northeast during the period. Drier and cooler air is moving in behind the exiting cold front this afternoon, and once any lingering clouds exit late this afternoon/early evening we will see a mostly clear sky for the remainder of the period.
Warmer on Tuesday, but a few lake effect rain showers are expected. Then, warmer and dry for the rest of the week. Otherwise, on the south side of the low, there is an area of steady rain that will track through from west to east this evening. The western edge of the low will be over Lake Michigan tomorrow, brining lake effect rain showers to part of the area. Temperatures will be on the rise for the remainder of the week as an upper-level ridge amplifies over the eastern two-thirds of the US. Confidence is high, as ensembles are showcasing the anomalous warmth beneath this ridge. The ridge breaks down toward the end of the weekend as a deep trough arrives over the Pacific Northwest.
Clouds and rain will return later this afternoon into this evening though, as the upper level low finally starts to pull east of the area, and the back side of the systems moves through.
/EC/ Today and tonight: A deep closed upper low currently centered over northern Illinois will gradually shift east into northern Ohio through the day today and tonight. As of early this morning, an associated surface cold front is dropping south through the area and is forecast to reach the Gulf Coast by this evening. For today, mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Several readings in the low 50s are also expected across northeast portions of the area, especially in traditional cool drainage locations.
1139 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Rest of Today) The cold front that brought showers and thunderstorms yesterday has continued its progression east and is now located across far northeast Alabama.
(Through Tuesday) As a cold front moves through the area tomorrow we'll have drier and relatively cooler air moving in across our NW counties. Overnight lows for the NW half of the area are also expected to be cooler, in the mid to upper 60s, while the SE half is in the low 70s.
1032 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Mean upper ridging will persist through Wed, with a transition to semi-active SW flow after. The only weather feature to speak of the next couple days is a ridge topping impulse and associated backdoor cool front that will slide into the region later today and support slightly cooler conds Tues (mainly across the northeast half) before another round of WAA Wed. Semi- active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture will support rain chances once again the later half of the week as a series of impulses cross the region, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the last half of the week along with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) A fair weather pattern is expected tonight over Southeast TX as somewhat drier air mass sits over much of the region and a surface weak cold front continues to linger over the Gulf waters. Another "cool" night is in store with overnight low temperatures ranging between the mid to upper 60s over areas north of I-10 and in the low to mid 70s over areas south of I-10. With the cold front still residing over the coastal waters, drier air persisting from the surface to mid levels, and ridging aloft, shower and thunderstorm development will be limited on Tuesday.
An upper level ridge will build into the area today and tonight. This will lead to another dry day with even warmer temperatures. Expect warm above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon for all areas as the upper level ridge exits. Additionally, as the ridge exits, subtropical remnants from Kay will arrive into our mountains.
1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) The weak cold front that moved through the region yesterday is already over the coastal waters. Temperatures will climb from the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s to low 70s (inland) and in the low to mid 70s along the coast. With the ridge in place, strong subsidence and warmer conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday. Highs will generally be from the low to mid 90s.
WV imagery shows a ridge over the Rockies, buttressed by a trough over SoCal/Baja, and another over the Great Lakes Region. CAMs suggest a typical diurnally-driven afternoon of convection over the higher terrain. Tuesday, thicknesses increase as the ridge is nudged east into the Southern Plains, courtesy of the SoCal/Baja trough. A stronger 35+kt LLJ may keep convection over Southeast New Mexico going a little longer Tuesday night, with overnight lows a degree or two warmer.
This will help drop a cold front down into our counties overnight.
1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper low and subsequent trough responsible for yesterday's cold front are slowly making their way east through the Midwest. This exiting trough will put the area in a realm of weak north to northwest flow aloft as high amplitude upper level ridging begins to drift east out of the Rockies. The 850 mb thermal ridge will also see a slight strengthening today. The only point of note is there may be a slight increase in winds overnight, especially across the Big Country, as lee troughing tightens the pressure gradient.
Farther to the north, a closed upper low near the Great Lakes and associated troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley. Interaction between high pressure over southern Florida and this frontal boundary will keep a SSW through W wind flow over the region for the next couple of days.
This means we will see cooler overnight temperatures, with lows in the 60s, in fact low 60s in E TX and CENLA, and mid to upper 60s along the I-10 corridor of SE TX and SW/SC LA.
312 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 After a muggy night tonight, less humid air will start pushing into the region following a cold front on Tuesday. High pressure remaining to our north will keep the weather dry and seasonable for several days thereafter. A cold front entering the western Carolinas will move to the coast by sunrise Tuesday and shift farther offshore through then end of Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower to middle 70s at the beaches. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler to the west with the front moving off the coast. Deep layer moisture will be offshore through the period keeping the area rain-free even though mid level trough axis swings through.
Tonight will be on the cool side with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Kind of a convoluted surface pressure pattern this morning with high pressure to the south and a stalled weakening low to the east, while there is a low to the northwest. Low level flow increases as the system to the northwest moves into the western Dakotas, while just to the west of this low, HRRR near-surface smoke progs suggest some smoke will move across west river. This will clear out any low level smoke, however HRRR continues to indicates that the ridge aloft will continue to provide an ample pathway for a high sheen of smoke.
1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Latest WPC surface analysis places a cold front from Del Rio to Hondo to Cuero, with light NNE flow behind this boundary over the I- 35 Corridor and Hill Country. Temps will quickly climb into the low to mid 90s along with plenty of sunshine and ENE winds. MOS guidance even indicates temperatures as low at the lower 60s over the Hill Country, but we won't get too cute with our forecast.
An upper low is located near the southern tip of Lake Michigan this afternoon, and has an expansive cloud mass surrounding it, far more than yesterday. The slow movement of the upper low has resulted in cloudy skies over nearly our entire area today, and this was handled in the morning update. With clear skies already found to the west, and the upper low beginning to move east, and expected to pick up it's pace tonight, clear is confidently forecast. No matter where, after today's cool day, you might want to shut those open windows tonight! Sunshine and surface ridging will bring a fantastic day to the area Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (The rest of today ) Dry northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a slow moving upper low over the Midwest slowly drifts eastward today. At the surface, ridging will persist through today across eastern Oklahoma with the axis gradually shifting east and south by this evening.
(This evening through Tuesday night) The cold front will continue pushing through the area this evening with noticeably drier air behind it. Surface ridging will build in behind it which will allow for efficient radiational cooling to take place, especially for areas along and north of I-10/12. The low tempertures for Tuesday night will be just as cool as tonight, if not cooler, as high pressure continues to build in.
The upper level ridge will nearly be centered over the High Plains. Did trend with the warmer bias models of the MET and 90th percentile as confidence grows in warmer temperatures for Tuesday. Confidence is moderate that sustained winds won't exceed much past 10 mph throughout the day, supported by bufkit soundings where much of the winds in the lowest levels are below 10 kts.
The slightly cooler temperatures experienced today and yesterday fade as upper high pressure builds back. Highs will be a bit warmer tomorrow with most locations getting into the lower to middle 90s.
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Late morning sfc analysis shows the cold front just about through the forecast area at this time, with noticeably lower dewpoints well inland as drier air filters into the region (KSHV 12z raob showed a mid-level mean RH of 15 percent and a PWAT of only 0.
(The rest of today ) Dry northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a slow moving upper low over the Midwest slowly drifts eastward today. At the surface, ridging will persist through today across eastern Oklahoma with the axis gradually shifting east and south by this evening.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue overhead with upper-level ridging building into the central Plains by mid-week.
1222 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region later today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s today. Water vapor imagery tells the story well with upper low still over northern IL and impressive midlevel dry slot engulfing our entire area. Upper low will continue to drift eastward today and wind field will slowly relax as occlusion process continues. Precip winds down tonight as upper low exits eastward. Precip finally ends for good Tuesday evening as strong ridge develops upstream. This ridge holds strong over the eastern CONUS for much of the period resulting in dry weather and increasing temps. An upper low will drift slowly east through northern Indiana this afternoon into tonight with scattered/light showers.
1155 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Late morning sfc analysis shows the cold front just about through the forecast area at this time, with noticeably lower dewpoints well inland as drier air filters into the region (KSHV 12z raob showed a mid-level mean RH of 15 percent and a PWAT of only 0.
Meanwhile, an associated cold front, currently located over the northern Alabama/central Mississippi, is expected to continue moving southeastward through this evening and move offshore by midnight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, primarily for regions southeast of I-65 as a weak pre-frontal trough moves across the area and ahead of the incoming cold front. High pressure from the southern Plains will quickly build in afterwards, allowing for northerly to northeasterly winds to become prevalent for tonight and Tuesday. A cooler night is expected tonight after the cold front passes, with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s over most of our inland counties, with mid to upper 60s over coastal counties. Skies begin to clear out during the mid to late evening hours as a cold front passes moves offshore.
Another couple of quiet days are expected across the area before our first fall-like storm moves through the area for the latter half of the work week, bringing a period of moderate to heavy rain, strong gusty winds and cooler temperatures. A weak, moisture starved trough axis slides through the area on Tuesday, causing winds to switch from generally light south to north, in the 5 to 10 mph range.
133 PM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A dry Cold front was dropping south through the area today with breezy NW to N winds in it's wake this afternoon. Remnants from an upper low from the Pacific NW and Tropical Storm Kay to our southwest then move through the region this week but the systems will lose their moisture and much of the precipitation will stay south and east of the area.