Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/GG/ A stray afternoon thunderstorm will remain possible across far southern portions of the Pine Belt as easterly flow remains in place between ridging to our north and a tropical disturbance over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. For tomorrow, ridging will be centered over far northern Mississippi with anomalously warm 850mb temperatures (20-21 C) contributing to well above average warmth. The good news, however, is that dry air and the aforementioned deep mixing will keep dewpoints in check which will in turn limit heat index values to the low 100s. /TW/ Expect mainly dry conditions through mid week as high pressure ridging remains across the region.
559 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Forecast concerns in the short term deal with strong winds as a low pressure system moves into the area Tuesday. Water vapor imagery showing an upper level trough pushing into the west coast. As that trough approaches. As the low moves through Tuesday afternoon.
Look for high temperatures on Tuesday to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then slightly warmer through the rest of the week with highs well into the 80s. After sunset, stratus will likely take hold once again, especially in eastern areas as NE to E flow advects in cooler temps. Any fog/stratus will be gone by late Tues morning with pleasant temperatures as high pressure continues to settle in. As has been discussed for past several days, upper level ridge will keep the area dry and on the warm side into the start of the weekend. Models still point towards ridge breaking down/shifting east enough to allow train of disturbances to begin to impact the area.
As the low approaches the coast tomorrow, expect widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to move into the coastal waters during the early morning and then steadily inland through the day. Guidance has been consistent in keeping the highest QPF values southwest of the area down towards Galveston.
657 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Weak convergence was noted along a back-door cold front which had settled into the region. Lows tonight should range from the mid 60s in SW IL (on the cooler side of the stalled boundary) to around 70 in central MO.
A dry and quiet night expected for the Valley as high pressure continues to build aloft. Above normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through the short term period as H5 high pressure centers over the lower Ozark/MS River Valley.
Midweek, a front will push southward from the Mid-Atlantic into the forecast area behind the departing offshore cyclone. A dry and cooler airmass will build into the region late week behind the front. Temperatures will warm back up for the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the area.
Weak deep layer hear and overall instability parameters keep the overall severe risk on the low side.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and mostly clear skies overnight aside from high clouds and patchy fog. Expect lows to range from the low 60s north of I-74 to the mid 60s around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville. This clearing will spread southward with time, with mainly clear skies overnight aside from some high clouds with the wave riding up the upper ridge. After that, another quiet day is on tap as the ridge drifts overhead. A slow breakdown of the ridge should keep the midweek system off to our northwest, though some slight chance PoP's will remain in the forecast northwest of the Illinois River. The ridge will be slow to give way across the eastern U.
Weak deep layer shear and overall instability parameters keep the overall severe risk on the low side.
Dry conditions will prevail overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across the interior and the low to mid 70s at the beaches.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies to the west, bringing veering wind and increasingly dry air to the region. Apart from the post-frontal air mass on Tue, temperature is likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the wrn-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the ern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front. Surprisingly, the higher-frequency IFR sites of FKL and DUJ should have enough dry air in place to offset fog development.
628 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 The primary story continues to be the summer-like heat across the area with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s - roughly 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. With the highly amplified pattern remaining place, a similar weather day is anticipated on Tuesday as the upper ridge resides over the forecast area.
933 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A weakening low pressure system will move into the Mid Atlantic region today, pushing a frontal boundary to our south.
525 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 20z surface analysis had low over southern SK with warm front into eastern NE and trough into eastern CO. Upper trough churning over the west coast the main concern this forecast. Low pressure will develop over eastern MT driving trough and cold front into CWA Tuesday afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing associated with trough will result in gusty southwest winds along/behind boundaries. Temperatures will be tricky tonight with downslope warmed areas overnight for the higher elevations given west boundary layer flow and thermal ridge.
/issued 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Near persistence conditions continue under upper ridging. Highs continue in the low to mid 90s with lows 65 to 70.
745 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Mid level ridge was centered over the region this evening. Upper high pressure ridge will remain in control which will result in afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across most of the forecast area.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies to the west, bringing veering wind and increasingly dry air to the region. Apart from the post-frontal air mass on Tue, temperature is likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the wrn-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the ern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front. VFR conditions is expected to continue into the early morning hours for all TAF sites, a stray shower may linger southeast of PIT as a weak cold front exits. With high pressure repositioning over southern NY, confidence is not high that cigs will drop to MVFR for all TAF sites Tuesday morning.
Surface ridging will keep winds generally light and below 10kts.
Moisture will remain in place across northern Arizona into this evening as a low pressure system moves into the Great Basin.
Gusty winds will subside tonight as a low pressure system moves through the region.
Dewpoints range from the low to mid 60s east with upper 60s to lower 70s west. Upper ridging in place for Tuesday but it will be shifting east as a deep trough pushes into the Rockies/Northern Plains. Tuesday night however, the trough advances further east, pushing the upper ridge axis into the Great Lakes.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: A stray afternoon thunderstorm will remain possible across far southern portions of the Pine Belt as easterly flow remains in place between ridging to our north and a tropical disturbance over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. For tomorrow, ridging will be centered over far northern Mississippi with anomalously warm 850mb temperatures (20-21 C) contributing to well above average warmth. The good news, however, is that dry air and the aforementioned deep mixing will keep dewpoints in check which will in turn limit heat index values to the low 100s. /TW/ Expect mainly dry conditions through mid week as high pressure ridging remains across the region.
908 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Adjusted pops across the far east tonight with a short wave trough lifting across this region with some showers/storms expected. Weak deep layer shear and overall instability parameters keep the overall severe risk on the low side.
322 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Lingering showers and thunderstorms into this evening, then drier and warmer on Tuesday.
As of 20Z Monday afternoon, an expansive midlevel ridge continues to reside across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with troughing in the west. At the surface, a broad trough was positioned across the High Plains from eastern NM through the western Dakotas. Coupling the heat with the high humidity will yield an another day with heat indicies in the upper 90s.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies to the west, bringing veering wind and increasingly dry air to the region. Apart from the post-frontal air mass on Tue, temperature is likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the wrn-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the ern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front.
913 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure then builds over the region Tuesday through the end of the week. A cold front will cross the area this evening and will be accompanied by an increase in clouds and few-sct showers. Otherwise, much cooler tomorrow with clearing skies during the afternoon. High pressure will build Tuesday night through the end of the week giving way to a taste of early fall weather with highs in the 70s and cool nights in the 50s on Wed night.
427 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A upper level low is in the northern Gulf of Mexico just southeast of the Texas coast, along with high pressure building north of Mississippi Valley. Tropical moisture from the low has been feeding showers and thunderstorms that have been for the most part offshore with some bands extending inland. High temperatures are a bit above normal due to subsidence from the high pressure associated with the ridge further eastward.
Hot and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday night as the area remains locked under the influence of the persistent upper ridge centered over the Mid-South.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 96 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 93 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 93 69 89 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 89 64 82 / 10 10 10 10.
We are under the influence of a weak high pressure over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, resulting in general northwesterly flow over the region. Although the evening sounding displayed no features that would indicate convective inhibition, the overall environment, considering the influence of the ridge and general diffluent flow through the lower troposphere, will continue to restrict convective initiation. Only limited shower activity is expected, especially near the Lower Keys and surrounding waters. Isolated showers may develop during the overnight hours and continue into early Tuesday morning near the lower and middle Keys, moving southeastward into the Florida Straits.
256 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Another hot day is on tap for the area as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
The frontal boundary drifts just to the south of our CWA by Wednesday afternoon, and it will be a cooler day with highs mid 70s to lower 80s.
A weak cold front is expected to drift south across the area today and into Wednesday then a ridge of high pressure will build down the Appalachians Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures to the area. Forecast high temperatures are running about 9 to 15 degrees above normal across much of the area today and around 1 to 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday as cooler air moves in.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies over the upper midwest, bringing increasingly dry air to the region. Temperature are likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the western-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the eastern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front. Patchy IFR stratus is possible early this morning at FKL and DUJ with some low level moisture behind an exiting cold front. VFR conditions are then expected through the rest of the TAF period under building high pressure and dry advection. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The primary story continues to be the summer-like heat across the area with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s - roughly 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. With the highly amplified pattern remaining place, a similar weather day is anticipated on Tuesday as the upper ridge resides over the forecast area. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward by late in the week as a large trough moves into the Rockies. Prior to the arrival of the trough, the quasi-stationary front over Nebraska may help some scattered convection creep southeastward on Wednesday over NW MO, but again this remains a low probability. A better chance for widespread thunderstorms comes this weekend as the upper trough and front slowly move across the forecast area.
1046 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019 20z surface analysis had low over southern SK with warm front into eastern NE and trough into eastern CO. Upper trough churning over the west coast the main concern this forecast. Low pressure will develop over eastern MT driving trough and cold front into CWA Tuesday afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing associated with trough will result in gusty southwest winds along/behind boundaries. Temperatures will be tricky tonight with downslope warmed areas overnight for the higher elevations given west boundary layer flow and thermal ridge. Wednesday, slightly cooler temperatures forecast.
1138 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 An upper level ridge and hot air mass is in place and will remain over the area through Wednesday. Temperatures are in the lower to the middle 90s. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s daily through Wednesday. An upper level trough will move into the northwestern U. by mid week then move east by the end of the week flattening out and weakening the upper ridge over our region.
This will be ahead of a west to eastward pushing cold front. The quick moving cold front should be mainly east of our counties by 12Z Wednesday.
Mid level ridging from the north and surface ridging from the northeast will remain dominant over our region and work to suppress convection. Peak heat index values will be in the lower 100s across much of the area but in the west where the airmass is moister, heat index values will be near 105F for several hours so wl highlight this area with a Limited for Heat Stress in our HWO. Any convection that develops in the southwest this afternoon will dissipate early this evening and another warmer than normal night is expected. Warmer than average conditions will continue through the week as a steep upper ridge remains intact over the eastern half of the country.
A drier northeast flow associated with high pressure over southern Ontario will drive clouds and spotty showers out of south central PA into the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley this morning. Dry weather pattern continues through midweek with high pressure remaining firmly in control to the west of Humberto. A building upper level ridge with above normal heights signals a rebound in temperatures to above normal levels by this weekend. Consensus medium range deterministic models and ensemble guidance generally agree to keep the weekend rain-free as cold front approaches from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
High pressure will build as an upper ridge amplifies over the upper midwest, bringing increasingly dry air to the region. Temperature are likely to be in the lower 80s, well-above the average of low-mid 70s. As the western-CONUS trough lifts into the Midwest late this week, the eastern-CONUS ridge axis will shift ewd on Sat/Sun. Despite the flow transition, any chance for rain will hold off until late Sun/Mon, when convergence and moisture advection strengthen ahead of an advancing cold front. Patchy IFR stratus is possible early this morning at FKL with some low level moisture behind an exiting cold front. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under building high pressure and dry advection. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
This will bring a cold front across the forecast area during the day today. An upper trough will move across western Montana and Idaho this morning and eastern Montana and Wyoming this afternoon and evening. While a few isolated showers are possible this morning, most of the showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon and evening as the upper trough approaches and atmosphere will be unstable. The upper trough moves to the east late tonight.
1108 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Weak convergence was noted along a back-door cold front which had settled into the region. Lows tonight should range from the mid 60s in SW IL (on the cooler side of the stalled boundary) to around 70 in central MO.
343 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 N-NW flow will prevail aloft as South Florida is located between upper ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico and residual troughing in the wake of Hurricane Humberto over the western Atlantic.
333 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Quiet weather continues for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates over the North Country through to the weekend. A great stretch of late summer/early fall weather continues as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather across most of the Northeastern US.
Currently, we remain under southwest flow aloft with a large upper trough to the west and upper ridging to the east. Above normal temperatures expected each day this week and weak upper disturbances moving overhead along the theta-e ridge will give us the extra instability needed for thunderstorms to develop.
438 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Areas of fog will lift early, although low clouds may linger well into the day as a high pressure area to the north keeps a northeast flow over the forecast area. The cooler northeast flow should allow temperatures to be a little cooler today than yesterday with highs around 80. Low level post frontal moisture has allowed fog to develop and expand over Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana early this morning as a high pressure area to the north keeps a northeast flow over the forecast area. The cooler northeast flow should allow temperatures to be a little cooler today than yesterday with highs only around 80.
1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with light variable winds and high pressure settling in over the state. Mid level high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes region, southward to Arkansas as well.
1007 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 High pressure continues to influence the area with mostly clear skies across the Mid-South. Temperatures are currently in the low 70s to mid 80s. By Wednesday, the ridge that has been centered over the area is expected to start to shift a bit to the East.
253 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Current surface map places low across eastern Montana with trof extending into eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. Deep mixing will result in gusty west-southwest winds behind the surface trof.
305 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Another hot day is on tap for the area as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 96 70 92 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 93 69 88 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 93 69 89 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 89 64 82 / 20 10 10 10.
311 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Upper ridge axis this morning continues to edge eastward into the Midwest region. Mid level moisture return continues today as several embedded perturbations are noted lifting towards the western high plains ahead of the mid level trough axis in Oregon. Despite the decent low level mixing and gusty south winds this afternoon, cirrus clouds should once again temper highs a few degrees to the low 90s. A secondary upper trough is progged to cross the Pacific Northwest coast this evening, shifting the first upper wave into the northern plains.
Focus then goes to a passing cold front and its chance for thunderstorms this evening, mainly after 9 PM. Elsewhere, largely dry conditions are expected except for some lingering showers in northeast ND associated with a low pressure system moving into the area tonight. Focus in the extended is the 500 mb upper low which will affect the area starting Thu night.
355 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure will build across the Northeast U. Otherwise, expect high pressure to build in from the northwest today and tonight. High pressure will remain in control through the period. Dry conditions with light northeast winds, becoming more variable as the high pressure settles overhead.
This is result of upper level high pressure remaining overhead. the upper ridge extends north into the NRN MS River Valley Region. with a trough over the WRN CONUS. While the upper ridge overhead will remain the dominant feature across the Natural State. and the upper level ridging over AR should remain.
214 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure stays strong thru the short term, with an H5 centering/ridging across the heart of the FA today.
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 CWA remains located between a deep upper trough moving into the Great Basin from the west and high pressure to the east this morning with resultant SW flow over the CWFA. Tomorrow through the weekend a second deep upper trough will move on shore across the PACNW and then traverse through the Great Basin region producing continued SW flow aloft.
156 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 It should be dry and hot again today with Hurricane Humberto well off the Southeast Coast and moving farther out to sea and high pressure in the forecast area. A cold front will sink southward and move through the area tonight. High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will bring lower temperatures during the rest of the workweek. The high-resolution models suggest isolated thunderstorm coverage at most. The models show a backdoor cold front tonight. Based on the noctural timing and weak front we leaned toward the lower pop guidance.
/issued 1007 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ High pressure continues to influence the area with mostly clear skies across the Mid-South. Temperatures are currently in the low 70s to mid 80s. By Wednesday, the ridge that has been centered over the area is expected to start to shift a bit to the East.
Models are in good agreement showing an area of convergence from north to south that seems to be inflection between the high in the eastern Great Lakes, and the low-level flow changing to the south.
Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the next trof axis pushing east onshore from the PAC, maintaining a SW flow regime over our region. In tandem, amplified ridging presence over the Mississippi Valley will extend back into TX, leaving above normal heights back over the southern plains. The pattern will maintain persistence in warmer than normal temperatures for the next several days with many areas breaching the 90's by mid-week as the theta-e ridge sets up over the Pecos River Valley and higher terrain in west TX. Slight chance PoPs will slowly rise through Wednesday with the trof axis to the north traversing the Rockies into the Plains, coupled with diurnal heating over the mountains to generate thunderstorms over the climo areas.
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Sensible wx through the end of the week will be defined by the evolution of the upstream longwave ridge the axis of which extends from Lake Superior south into the Lower MS River Valley at press time.