Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 With high pressure at the sfc, dry conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Aloft, northwest flow will give way to another upper trough tonight. As that trough slides east on Friday, northwest flow will dominate again. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, though still below average, in between upper troughs.
Record to near record cold this morning will give way to a warmer afternoon compared to yesterday. The warming trend for eastern New Mexico will be short lived however as a backdoor cold front drops into eastern New Mexico on Friday, pushing westward into central and western areas Friday night.
625 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Ongoing drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow will quickly exit east this morning. Clear skies tonight will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s, with potential for lows in the low to mid 20s as represented by the lower end of model guidance.
The latest short-term models and radar trends suggest a brief period of light snow is possible across western ND this morning along the warm front that extends from Williston down to Bowman. Cloud cover will continue to increase across from west to east this morning as a warm front propagates in from Montana. This warm front quickly occludes through the day on Thursday as it continues to propagate east across North Dakota.
The ridge off the coast will remain there and drift inland just a bit, but this will not affect sensible weather.
1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Weak upper level ridging will spread across the area today which will bring quiet weather. This is in response to the upper level trough digging into the Northern Rockies. Did raise lows a touch with what looks like a mixed environment through the night as winds turn from the west to northwest as a trough of low pressure moves through. The low levels remain fairly mixed through the day on Friday and this could lead to some diurnally driven snow showers, possibly a few sprinkles where precipitation rate is lighter. Temperatures will be a little cooler than Thursday and still about 15 degrees below normal.
Expect most sites to breach the freezing mark in the next hour or two. /issued 334 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ An upper level trough is centered over northern Missouri with west flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Clearing skies and light, northerly winds behind a cold front are resulting in temperatures plummeting across the area. An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Friday which will send a cold front south towards the CWA.
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Temp recovery finally kicked in and many locations now at or above freezing, so besides adjustments to near term sky/temp trends no further changes made to near term forecast. Still expect above freezing temps, but upstream cloud cover could complicate our highs in some areas reaching 40 range today.
heights increase as trough to out east slides a bit further to the east and upper ridge builds slowly in.
the forecast area is under northwest flow aloft through the day becoming westerly tonight ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold front. Could see some mid and/or high clouds move into the area from the north ahead of the trough late this morning through the afternoon otherwise sunny. Clouds quickly increase tonight as the trough approaches. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 40s. the upper trough and associated cold front move through during the day with increasing north winds.
A cold front with a switch to north/northwest winds late Friday morning. Still expecting a cold front to move through the area on Friday.
1114 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Arctic high pressure is firmly entrenched across the rockies this morning with observed MSLPs near 1042 mb in northern Colorado. Gradients will relax as the high begins to move to the southeast later this evening. Not much in the way of weather is expected Thursday as high pressure remain in place for the most part. High clouds and some light snow will be possible overnight along a fast moving cold front.
1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 High VFR conditions will hold for several days in wake of yesterday's strong cold front. With the clear skies and light winds, could see frost Friday morning with low temps below freezing at CLL, UTS and perhaps CXO.
Currently the warm front extended along the Devils Lake Basin and James River Valley, with the trailing cold front near the Minot to Dickinson areas. The surface and upper level low associated with this system was over northern Manitoba. The main upper level trough extended southwestward from the Manitoba low, and will move eastward across the Dakotas tonight and Friday. Expecting light precipitation along and behind the surface cold front, with the upper trough and associated upper level impulses providing support for light precipitation.
With high pressure at the sfc, dry conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Aloft, northwest flow will give way to another upper trough tonight. As that trough slides east on Friday, northwest flow will dominate again. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, though still below average, in between upper troughs.
The ridge continues to provide a large area of subsidence along with a very dry air mass above 700 mb. The ridge is slowly being shunted south and east as a strong upper level trough pushes east across the Mississippi River Valley. To our south, an inverted trough is trudging west towards the Yucatan Peninsula. The aforementioned ridge has succeeded in keeping the shower activity to a minimal. Tonight into the weekend, the upper level trough will continue its eastward march and continue to flatten and shove the subtropical ridge southward.
447 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A frontal passage today will bring strong wind gusts and much cooler conditions. Otherwise, showers will continue as the cold front continues to cross the region. Sct showers should continue for areas mainly N of PIT and in the ridges as an upper trough axis crosses.
Another Freezing Night. Temperatures below freezing again look likely overnight tonight. Since freezing temperatures developed, across all of our West Central Texas counties, we won't issue another freeze warning for tonight.
Many will see temperatures drop below freezing again, and some additional counties have been added to the Freeze Warning in effect tonight from 1 AM to 10 AM. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s, still 10 - 15 degrees cooler than the seasonal normal. Friday night will still be chilly, but the area should stay above freezing with the return of some moisture and clouds.
208 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A s/w trof digging southeast toward the Northern Plains will be the main wx player through the short range (Tonight-Friday night).
316 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The weather for this forecast period will be characterized by frequent cold fronts, below average temperatures, and mainly dry conditions. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma Friday morning and will move across the rest of the area through the day.
A cold front will pass late in the TAF period and shift winds to the north with gusts up to 30 kt possible. Today through Friday An upper level trough has now moved east of the FA leaving the Combined Panhandles under northwest flow aloft. Tonight, temperatures will drop below freezing once again across the area. Another cold front is progged to move through the area early Friday morning around sunrise. Areas in the south to southeast Texas Panhandle will still be able to reach the low 50s for a daytime high. While the north to northwest areas may only reach the low to mid 40s.
There has also been some light freezing rain and sleet reported within this band as RAP soundings are close to zero in the lowest levels resulting in some mixed and light freezing precipitation. Temperatures have fallen below or near freezing over much of the Freeze Warning this morning. With mainly sunny skies, highs will be 10-15 degrees warmer than today.
350 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A frontal passage today will bring strong wind gusts and much cooler conditions. Showers and gusty winds will accompany a cold front as it crosses the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
201 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A closed low continues to make its way toward the Great Lakes region while a ridge remains over the western Atlantic Ocean and Florida. At the surface, high pressure extends southwestward across the region ahead of an approaching cold front making its way through the southeast. The hope is that a good portion of our forecast area will be north of the front, with some relatively cooler and drier air making it feel much nicer outside.
Most locations have risen to 32 degrees or warmer, with the exception of the counties north and west of Interstate 44 and a couple counties in east central Oklahoma/far northwest Arkansas. It will be a slow warmup, but highs will eventually get into the low 40s across northwest Arkansas and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. Fort Smith, for example, didn't drop below freezing last night with a morning low of 33.
Moving forward, a reinforcing but dry cold front will move through late Friday night.
The other story will be the increase in winds behind the cold front for Friday.
1122 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Cold front is moving rapidly east across the western part of the forecast area late this morning. In the higher elevations south to southwest winds are still strong at aroung 40 to 60 mph. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 32 54 34 / 90 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 31 52 33 / 90 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 30 52 33 / 90 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 30 51 31 / 80 20 0 0 NC.
1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A cold front, currently north of Edmonton Alberta, is progged to drop through Nebraska tonight setting off snow showers across nrn Nebraska.
The maturing low pressure system responsible for our snow last night has pushed off towards the Midwest while much drier and cooler air filters southward over much of the plains region. Skies remain mostly clear overnight but with the cold ridge axis east of the area, overnight lows are a tad warmer with readings around 30 degrees. As the upper trough axis swings through the central CONUS Thursday, mid to high clouds build southward into northeast Kansas. This system also pushes a weak cold front during the mid to late afternoon, switching winds to the north at 10 to 15 mph. Depending upon the location and depth of cloud cover, highs vary from the lower 50s in east central Kansas, to the upper 40s in north central Kansas.
Still expect above freezing temps, but upstream cloud cover could complicate our highs in some areas reaching 40 range today.
238 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Clouds on the eastern side of a ridge axis are slowly but surely eroding from west to east this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control heading into tonight, but mid to high clouds spread in overnight ahead of a mid-level trough that will progress through the Upper Midwest/southern Canada. A cold front associated with this trough will move through the area on Friday, bringing with it scattered light rain/snow showers for Friday into Friday evening. With temperatures cooling below freezing Friday night, may need to watch for some slick spots that may develop on roadways from any leftover moisture.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front will sweep through northeast Montana today with rain and snow likely by this afternoon, changing to snow this evening and tonight as precipitation shifts south and finally comes to an end. Wibaux County may actually see the highest snowfall totals, and combined with breezy conditions tonight and Friday, conditions may be marginally supportive of a Winter Weather Advisory.
Upper ridge centered offshore should build in stronger tonight and Friday pushing high level clouds further north and east.
1113 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Anchored western NOAM ridge with associated mean central NOAM troughing will continue in the period, supporting local active NW flow. Anomalously deep/cold upper trough will push east as the next ridge topping clipper shifts toward the region. Much warmer day expected today (although still below climo norms) with 30s and 40s expected for highs. Cold front will shift through the region later tonight with winds turning NW and increasing.
A strong upper ridge across the eastern Pacific with a broad upper trough anchored over central Canada will leave Utah under a generally dry and stable northwest flow aloft over the next several days.
Soundings are generally cold enough to support snow through the column except near the surface where temperatures are forecast to be above freezing.
Southwest wind around 10-15 mph may make it feel a bit cooler for folks heading out to trick-or-treat. Another cold front is expected to arrive mid-day Friday into the region which will push south rapidly and into the Permian Basin before sunset.
A weak cold front will cross the area tonight, with breezy NW winds redeveloping behind the front late tonight. Most of these locations will receive 1 to 4 inches of snow, the higher amounts across higher terrain. Warmer, more seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along with dry weather.
251 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Visible satellite imagery and surface obs indicated increasing mid/high clouds spreading northwest to southeast into WY this afternoon ahead of approaching trough. Cold front extended from central ND into central MT. Cold front is progged to dive south through the CWA tonight.
The lower cloud deck is beginning to break up west of JBR, and conditions should become SCT within the next hour or two. By late tonight into early Friday morning high pressure will build into the area and temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Expect wind speeds to pick back up late tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into northwest Oklahoma. /issued 307 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ After the cold start this morning, warmer than yesterday, but still cool temperatures, are expected this afternoon with highs in the 40s and 50s. Winds will then shift back towards the north Friday as another cold front moves across the region.
All areas are still expected to at least hit the low 40s by late this afternoon. As we head into Friday, the passage of this trough will lead to gusty northwesterly winds and perhaps even some flurries or very light snow in the morning hours. Some models try to spit out some more lapse-rate driven showers in the mid afternoon as the trough axis slides through.
A back door cold front will slide into northeast NM shortly before 12Z Friday, and will press southward throughout the day, switching winds around to the north and northeast. Record to near record cold this morning will give way to a warmer afternoon compared to yesterday. The warming trend for eastern New Mexico will be short lived however as a backdoor cold front drops into eastern New Mexico on Friday, pushing westward into central and western areas Friday night.
A strong mid level trough is moving in from Western Canada. Mid level trough will move through and will push a strong cold front through the area. 500/700 mb ridge will remain over the western portion of the country, extending out over adjacent portions of the Pacific ocean. Over eastern Canada/Hudson Bay, a closed upper low resides.
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this evening with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the front.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over the TX Panhandle with an unseasonably cold airmass still in place. This feature is not expected to bring any precip, but will push another cold front through on Fri. Near normal temps are expected to continue into Mon, but will not last long, as another cold front moves through Mon night. During the morning tomorrow, an approaching cold front will begin moving through central Kansas and switch winds around to the north.
Surface analysis shows the low has deepened to 996 mb, and it is currently over Lake Erie and moving northeast. High pressure located over the southern Plains is moving eastwards towards our area, and it will keep us dry through tomorrow night. Winds will become light and southwesterly during the day as high pressure slides to our east and return flow arrives. A moisture-starved cold front will reach the area late Friday.
1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Ongoing drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow will quickly exit east this morning. Clear skies tonight will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s, with potential for lows in the low to mid 20s as represented by the lower end of model guidance.
Otherwise, this afternoon will still be cool, but much warmer than yesterday when afternoon highs were 15 to 25 degrees below average for late October. Temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset - below freezing by 7 PM for the high country and 30s/40s elsewhere. Much warmer air aloft will move over the region bringing a return to near normal daytime temperatures by the weekend.
A cold one is on tap for tonight, with lows falling into the low 30s for much of the area. Temperatures will fall below freezing for a couple of hours early on Friday, so have continued a freeze warning for areas generally north of the Natchez Trace Corridor. Sunny skies will prevail on Friday under high pressure. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s.
Wind chill values are hovering near the freezing mark even as clouds finally begin to clear out behind the exiting system. Latest water vapor imagery shows an unseasonably deep trough over the Great Lakes region, with a trough axis extending down into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Winds coupled with temperatures in the 30s will keep wind chills near or below freezing through at least 9pm. Expect highs mainly in the lower 50s each day and lows in the low to mid 30s each night.
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Upper level trough dropping through MT/WY will clip by northeast Colorado tonight sending a cold front through the southeast plains. With winds increasing across the plains, temperatures should be warmer than past few nights with lows in the teens. The cold front will temper warming across the plains for Friday with highs topping out in the 30s to mid 40s. As low level flow shifts around from the east some patchy low clouds and isolated snow showers will be possible along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains towards afternoon as trailing energy within the upper trof moves across. a cold front will have pushed south during the late afternoon hours with weak easterly upslopes along the lee slopes of the Eastern Mountains.
Well below normal conditions this Halloween night, however the winds should settle down this evening! Temperatures will start out in the lower 40s and upper 30s, however should drop into the upper 20s by 10pm.
Cold front has now moved east of the forecast area with strong cold air advection the main weather story tonight with cold temperatures the first day of November. With the strong cold air advection over the eastern Tennessee mountains some light snow showers will be possible in the higher elevations during the evening hours. Friday continued cold air advection behind cold front with temperatures only mid 40s higher elevations to the lower to mid 50s across lower elevations.
As it breaks down beyond this the low is forecast to track to our South. Probably the bigger question is what will happen to the Pacific Ridge.
530 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Clouds on the eastern side of a ridge axis are slowly but surely eroding from west to east this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control heading into tonight, but mid to high clouds spread in overnight ahead of a mid-level trough that will progress through the Upper Midwest/southern Canada. A cold front associated with this trough will move through the area on Friday, bringing with it scattered light rain/snow showers for Friday into Friday evening. With temperatures cooling below freezing Friday night, may need to watch for some slick spots that may develop on roadways from any leftover moisture.
Cold front with gusty northerly winds should make its way through the terminals late Friday morning. Southwest wind around 10-15 mph may make it feel a bit cooler for folks heading out to trick-or-treat. Another cold front is expected to arrive mid-day Friday into the region which will push south rapidly and into the Permian Basin before sunset.
Morning lows to fall into the upper 20s across I-30 to around freezing across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
The high cirrus dissipated quickly, and the forecast was updated to decrease cloud cover to mostly clear this evening. The forecast area remains on the front side of an upper level ridge and under a dry northwest flow aloft. The low level inversion is strengthening, and this will play a role in low mixing heights and light transport winds. The inversion will also play a role in daytime and nighttime temperatures, as the higher elevations will see a stronger warming trend than the lower elevations.
Within the associated undercutting flow is an upper trough. For the rest of the week, there will be a warming trend as the influence of the ridge expands inland with temperatures reaching at least normal values if not a few degrees above. Over the weekend, the upper low will advance eastward but any meaningful moisture will track well south and east of our forecast area.
Widespread frost and freezing conditions are expected area wide. Wind chill values are hovering near the freezing mark even as clouds finally begin to clear out behind the exiting system. Latest water vapor imagery shows an unseasonably deep trough over the Great Lakes region, with a trough axis extending down into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Winds coupled with temperatures in the 30s will keep wind chills near or below freezing through at least 9pm. Expect highs mainly in the lower 50s each day and lows in the low to mid 30s each night.
Dry weather is expected Friday under building high pressure. Scattered showers should continue the rest of the evening with the approach of an upper trough behind an exiting sfc cold front. The scattered showers are expected to shift more N of PIT, and across the ridges, overnight as the trough axis crosses. A gradual clearing trend is expected by afternoon under building high pressure.
There will be little change in the weather through the upcoming weekend as high pressure and dry offshore flow persists over the region.
519 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A frontal passage today will bring strong wind gusts and much cooler conditions. Otherwise, showers will continue as the cold front continues to cross the region. Sct showers should continue for areas mainly N of PIT and in the ridges as an upper trough axis crosses.
845 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front over western ND into southern MT, moving slowly southward. For Friday, gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the cold front during the morning and persist into the afternoon as colder air allows for good boundary layer mixing during the late morning and afternoon. A weak cold front will cross the area tonight, with breezy NW winds redeveloping behind the front late tonight. Most of these locations will receive 1 to 4 inches of snow, the higher amounts across higher terrain. Warmer, more seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along with dry weather.
802 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Regional radars and GOES satellite imagery are showing bands of clouds and rain pushing southeast into the Nature Coast and adjacent Gulf waters along a cold front boundary, which are forecast to gradually work south through the area through the early morning. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with cooler and breezy conditions expected on Friday, and no other changes are planned for the evening update. Winds and seas will increase overnight behind a cold front with advisory to cautionary levels conditions developing, then gradually improving on Friday as winds turn to northeasterly.