Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
840 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 High pressure will build into the Commonwealth late today and Monday, producing dry and seasonably chilly weather that will last most of the upcoming week. GEFS 2m temp plumes support max temps today fairly close to average, ranging from the low 30s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 40s across the Lower Susq Valley. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling tonight, with high pressure moving directly over the state, along with a calm wind and mostly clear skies.
Current temperatures are running 3-6 degrees cooler than this time yesterday for most of our area, and temps will continue to dip lower through sunrise. Aside from the cool temps, high pressure ridge built over the southwest will keep conditions dry with light winds and mostly clear skies today.
Most models show at least a period of unsaturated low levels and weak subsidence which makes sense given the ridge moving through, however clouds across the Lower Peninsula redeveloped overnight, perhaps via some moisture contribution from northern Lake Michigan but there is a patchwork of stratus in the states to our south and west without help from the Great Lakes. On the other other hand, it usually pays to lean toward clouds this time of year whenever the low levels are expected to be fairly moist without strong subsidence. Monday will have breezy southwest winds with gusts over 30 mph given the tight pressure gradient between the high to our east and the low to our north. Precipitation should stay in northern Michigan and the cold front should pass through dry Monday evening in our part of the state.
320 AM MST Sun Dec 19 2021 Low amplitude upper ridging has moved into the western CONUS and Northern Plains. Downsloping across the northern/eastern Black Hills and Foothills are raising temperatures into the low to mid 40s. Temps should rise into the low 50s across these areas, and 40s across the northeast WY and western/central SD plains. A cold front will push through tonight, with a return to highs in the 20s/low 30s Monday. Cooler, unsettled weather is possible toward Christmas Eve and Christmas.
558 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021 At 09Z, a cold front was moving into north central MT. For Today, warm temperatures aloft will mix to the surface ahead of an advancing cold front. Tonight, a fairly strong cold front moves through. A deep upper level trough over Canada will direct the coldest airmass into the northern Great Lakes.
Today through Monday A flat ridge will be in place over the Cowboy State today and Monday, resulting in a mainly zonal flow pattern. These winds will decrease a bit for Monday, but will remain gusty, as a cold front makes its way over areas east of the Divide. Temperatures will remain seasonal across much of the forecast area Monday, as a result of the cold front.
Last night's cold front has ushered in a much more typical mid-December airmass, with temperatures early this morning settling into the 20s, and even the upper teens in a few of the coldest spots. BRC For the remainder of the forecast period, a persistent zonal flow pattern followed by a building ridge late in the week will keep weather conditions rather uneventful.
This will likely mute the warm air advection taking place so expect highs to be close to or slightly warmer than yesterday. Another low pressure tracks south of the area and looks to have little to no impact here. Decided to lower temperatures in some of the higher snow covered valleys since guidance has been too warm at those locations as of late. Tonight will be mostly clear again, so decent cooling in the valleys, but perhaps slightly warmer along the mid slopes on upwards. Tomorrow the two previously mentioned systems move well east of the area, which will allow the ridge to build back and therefore the warm advection continues. Attention then turns to a strong low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
Warmer mid to even upper 50s are possible at Elkhart. An upper level disturbance traversing the northern plains will push another cold front through Kansas Monday.
Building high pressure will then provide dry weather for much of this week. Scattered light flurries are expected to continue today with cold NNW flow across the Great Lakes, and with an approaching upper trough. Building high pressure should result in a clearing trend by later in the day.
Upper ridging with a moderating air mass will support quickly rising temps across southern CO today as above normal temps return, especially over the plains where temps will rise well into the 50s.
505 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 High pressure will build into the Commonwealth late today and Monday, producing dry and seasonably chilly weather that will last most of the upcoming week. Scattered snow showers/flurries continue to fall over parts of the Allegheny Plateau early this morning, primarily over the ridges of Cambria/Somerset counties where orographic forcing is the greatest. GEFS 2m temp plumes support max temps today fairly close to average, ranging from the low 30s over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 40s across the Lower Susq Valley. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling tonight, with high pressure moving directly over the state, along with a calm wind and mostly clear skies.
(Today through Monday afternoon) We're getting our morning started with some very light precipitation currently falling across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. At this time, the rest of the region remains above freezing and any precipitation is falling as rain. So don't get too excited as accumulation is only expected in the higher terrain (above 5000ft) and isolated parts of the Stockton Plateau. Clouds will clear out across our western regions before peak heating, so Carlsbad/Tatum/Hobbs will be a bit warmer than the Permian Basin this afternoon. This will be the only concern as by Monday, a ridge will being building overhead and we'll quickly warm up Monday afternoon to above normal in the mid 60s.
08Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over northern Mexico that was left behind by yesterdays upper trough. Surface obs showed a ridge of high pressure from the Red River into the the mid MS river valley.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, early morning temperatures are much cooler across Southeast Texas, generally ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s inland to the mid to upper 50s at the coast. The cooler temperatures will remain in the forecast through Monday night (lows mainly in the 40s tonight and in the 30s/40s Monday night with highs on Monday in the 50s).
allowing the pressure gradient to increase across the local area as low pressure intensifies on the lee side of the Rockies. ahead of a cold front anticipated to cross the local area overnight Sunday night through Monday morning. These warmer temps. expect the aforementioned cold front to cross the local area bringing a more seasonable start to the work week.
We do get a cold front into and through the area on Monday, but there is no moisture associated with the front and thus the forecast remains dry. This front does bring temps to to the upper 20s and lower 30s in northeast NE, below normal, but likely still in the lower 40s for southeast NE, which is sightly above normal.
955 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and tonight and then move off to the east on Monday.
351 AM MST Sun Dec 19 2021 Low amplitude upper ridging has moved into the western CONUS and Northern Plains. Downsloping across the northern/eastern Black Hills and Foothills are raising temperatures into the low to mid 40s. Temps should rise into the low 50s across these areas, and 40s across the northeast WY and western/central SD plains. A cold front will push through tonight, with a return to highs in the 20s/low 30s Monday. Cooler, unsettled weather is possible toward Christmas Eve and Christmas. A cold front will move through by evening bringing lighter northwest winds.
Any additional accumulation will be limited to a dusting, mainly across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, and also from eastern Monroe County eastward to western Oswego County. Overnight temperatures will hold in the lower 20s along the lake plains, but fall into the teens and single digits inland. Monday, a mid level trough will slide across southern Canada, pushing a surface cold front across our region Monday Night.
A very weak cold front will move through the Panhandles tonight bringing northerly winds and reinstating the colder airmass with low temperatures slightly below average. Cold front will mix out past sunrise tomorrow as a small amplitude ridge from NM shifts northeast into the Panhandles.
/DL/ A colder and more December-like day is on tap in the wake of a cold front that has now pushed east of the area. With the low/mid level trough axis still lingering to the northwest, remaining low level moisture is resulting in widespread low cloudiness. With the persistent CAA into late in the day and some breaks in the clouds farther north, it will be cold tonight with freezing temps possible in our northern counties. Cooler temperatures behind the front continue into the first part of the work week. Starting from the 30s Monday morning, the highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. This low pushes some showers northward into the forecast area for Monday and into Monday night.
A weak upper trough axis will be passing overhead, however the overall low/mid level flow will remain relatively weak. Add to that the low sun angle, and it may be tough to mix out the low level inversion as many of the high-res models suggest.
There are also some scattered showers in these same interior areas moving northeast with another band of showers a few thunderstorms extending from Levy county south southwest out into the gulf ahead of the approaching cold front.
152 AM PST Sun Dec 19 2021 High pressure aloft will round out our weekend on a fair and mild note today.
/Issued 315 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021/ Cold front is currently situated from around Athens to Columbus and will continue to push southeast across the remainder of the CWA for the first part of today. The cold front will push well to the south of the CWA tonight with a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast. NListemaa Still a bit of divergence among the medium-range models concerning the path of the compact but deep upper low moving across the gulf coast region to start out the period.
647 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and tonight and then move off to the east on Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A cold front has pushed offshore. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to the lower to mid 50s, about 15 degrees below normal. A mid level trough upstream over Northwest Mexico will be on the move today, tracking east and reaching East Texas on Monday. The associated southwest flow aloft will support overrunning through tonight and early Monday until the trough axis clears the CWA and mid level ridging starts to build overhead, also permitting drying out and clearing from west to east on Monday. Coastal troughing will remain in place through the short term, keeping enhanced rain chances going mainly over the waters.
612 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over northern Mexico. Tonight as the primary upper level low moves across the region highest PoPs will be focused across our eastern counties or roughly east of a Abilene to Ballinger to Junction line. Cannot rule out some sleet pellets or snow flakes mixing in with the rain due to dynamical cooling aloft from the upper low. But with surface temperatures above freezing no accumulations are expected.
High pressure in the western Atlantic has started losing its grip on the region and winds are slackening in response. Marine observation platforms are recording winds ranging from 3 to 15 knots, with the higher end wind observations located near convective activity. From synopsis, high pressure moving east over the western Atlantic will result in slackening breezes this afternoon as a frontal boundary approaches the southeast United States.
However, with the surface and 850mb ridge axis moving east of the area this evening, feel like skies will at least become partly cloudy by this evening. A system in the northern stream will try to bring a cold front into the area Monday night.
Accordingly, afternoon highs across this region will likely range a couple degrees cooler (in the mid-30s) than areas east of the US-65 corridor.
Tonight through Monday: High pressure will continue to slide off to the east as an area of low pressure slides from western Ontario this evening to Hudson Bay by late Monday morning or early afternoon. As this happens, a cold front is expected to slide through northeast Wisconsin late tonight into Monday morning, bringing a continued cloudy sky and perhaps a few flurries to the area. Overall moisture appears to be fairly limited and the best forcing is expected to remain in Canada, closer to the low, so not expecting much precipitation out of this system. Otherwise, overnight lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s with high temperatures ranging from the mid 20s central/north- central the low and mid 30s elsewhere. A low pressure system sweeping out of the northern U.
A cool, stable air mass has settled into the Tennessee Valley region in wake of the cold front that moved through the area yesterday. The one caveat may be a plume of dry air over part of the lower Ohio Valley that is currently helping to erode a small portion of this broad status shield in northern middle Tennessee. The clearing trend should continue into the evening/overnight hrs, as high pressure becomes layered from the mid Atlantic states into the Mid South region. An upper low/trough axis is then expected to traverse ewd across the srn Plains into the Gulf Coast states Mon/Tue. Overall temps look to remain near seasonal, with highs Mon/Tue in the lower/mid 50s while lows Mon night trend mainly in the lower/mid 30s.
This, in response to a low pressure system tracking across southern Saskatchewan Canada, and winds will continue to increase through the rest of the morning, especially across the higher elevations and downslope-prone areas of the Prairie Coteau. So patchy blowing snow to sporadic/isolated whiteout conditions appears most likely through this mid-morning, again especially for the higher wind-prone areas. Continued southerly winds and WAA into the afternoon should increase temps to 32 F or warmer for the majority of the CWA (40s near/west of the MO River), though snow-covered areas may struggle. The warmth is short-lived however, as a cold frontal passage ushers in colder air once again, starting already this evening. High temperatures Monday will be ~5 to 10 F below average, in the 10 to 25 F range, under clearing skies as high pressure overtakes the region.
1225 PM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 A cold front will exit to the coast tonight ending the precipitation and leading in colder air.
Next chance of precipitation will be Monday night with the cold frontal passage. Big rebound in temps Monday with highs in the 30s, a few locations may even climb into the low 40s as southerly flow picks up. Monday night a mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing weak cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes late Monday night. East of Lake Erie, more limited synoptic support and warmer temperatures aloft will keep the lake response limited to a few scattered light snow showers.
Temperature trends continue to mostly occur as anticipated, with sky grids updated to account for lingering low stratus decks across our eastern zones that may keep highs there a few degrees cooler but still in the upper 40s. The eastern band of low clouds is expected to persist for much of the day before finally scattering just before 20/00z as a weak upper trough axis moves east of the region. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail for the duration of the period, but clouds will be increasing from the southwest late in the period ahead of a strong upper trough.
Skies will likely clear before sundown, and temperatures will fall abruptly to below freezing around midnight. There is some concern that freezing fog will develop, but will wait for the latest data to fully assess that forecast with the afternoon package. Low clouds will hang on well into the afternoon and perhaps even longer according the low level NAM moisture fields. Clearing skies and lots of moisture from recent rainfall could result in some fog/freezing fog.
Temperatures have dropped from the 50s overnight down to the lower to mid 40s at mid to late morning lower elevations and lower to mid 30s higher elevations. Even though the precipitation has ended some light snow flurries could continue through early afternoon in Wise and Russell Counties in southwest Virginia with temperatures about freezing in the saturated cold airmass but no accumulation expected. Still some patchy fog around across higher elevations in the mountains where cold air advection is trapping the low level moisture.
1142 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over northern Mexico. Tonight as the primary upper level low moves across the region highest PoPs will be focused across our eastern counties or roughly east of a Abilene to Ballinger to Junction line. Cannot rule out some sleet pellets or snow flakes mixing in with the rain due to dynamical cooling aloft from the upper low. But with surface temperatures above freezing no accumulations are expected.
Associated surface cold front now through western and north central North Dakota, evident by a wind shift to the north/northwest and a considerable drop in temperatures, especially across northwest and north central areas of the state which have seen a 20 degree drop in temperatures over a 2 hour span. Cold front continues to push south through this evening, switching winds to the northwest over the remainder of the area and resulting in temperatures dropping off quickly.
allowing the pressure gradient to increase across the local area as low pressure intensifies on the lee side of the Rockies. ahead of a cold front anticipated to cross the local area overnight Sunday night through Monday morning. These warmer temps. expect the aforementioned cold front to cross the local area bringing a more seasonable start to the work week. The axis of the low-level jet responsible for the LLWS to pass earlier than the previous forecast, with speeds toward KEAR more questionable on whether we would have winds aloft strong enough to achieve LLWS criteria. Lastly, a cold front will pass through a bit before 12Z Monday with plenty with surface height rises to give us a near 20 KT wind gust, and perhaps near 25 KTS from the northwest closer to 18Z.
202 PM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 Drier air will continue to filter into the region behind a departing cold front. Cool high pressure will build into the region on Monday.
Temperature trends continue to mostly occur as anticipated, with sky grids updated to account for lingering low stratus decks across our eastern zones that may keep highs there a few degrees cooler but still in the upper 40s.
147 PM MST Sun Dec 19 2021 Dry conditions continue with temperatures turning briefly cooler on Monday. Westerly flow aloft across the central Rockies and central High Plains region tonight turns slightly more northwesterly on Monday and Monday night as a trough in the southern branch of the upper flow moves out of the southern Rockies and across the southern Plains, another trough in the northern branch of the upper flow sweeps into southern Canada, and the upper ridge rebuilds over the west coast. The southwest near surface flow remains in place across the area this afternoon, but begins to transition to a westerly direction this evening, and then northwesterly after midnight as a prefrontal trough moves through ahead of a cold front that sweeps across the area early Monday morning. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler on Monday as a result.
1247 PM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 High pressure will build into the region today and tonight and then move off to the east on Monday.
Another closed low is noted offshore of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, ridging has slowly been sliding east with a tightening pressure gradient toward central and western KS as that ridge interacts with lee troughing. Split flow looks to continue for the beginning of the week with the upper low to our south passing through TX, and a couple clipper systems to our north passing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
In addition to the low visibility and ceilings, isolated showers will spread from the Kissimmee River towards the coastline this morning, with another persistent band of showers and embedded storms just offshore from Jupiter Inlet, which produced significant flooding over south FL early this morning. A weak cold front will sink through the forecast area later today and into tonight which will increase rain chances through the afternoon and the evening. Highs today will be well above normal in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front will pass through the region late this afternoon and evening, with winds veering northwesterly after 00Z. (modified previous) Higher coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours, as a weak cold front approaches the local area.
144 PM MST Sun Dec 19 2021 The northern plains is beneath zonal flow/flattened upper ridging and mostly cloudy skies. The cold front will cross our region tonight. A cold front will move through the area during the evening, with winds changing to the northwest-north winds and MVFR cigs and local IFR cigs behind the front.
Upper low will shift into north Texas late tonight into Monday morning with increasing mid/high clouds south of I-40. (Monday through Sunday) Could see some light precipitation spread into far southeast Oklahoma near the Red River Monday morning but temperatures are expected to quickly climb above freezing with any precip remaining in liquid form.
1028 AM MST Sun Dec 19 2021 Low amplitude upper ridging has moved into the western CONUS and Northern Plains. Downsloping across the northern/eastern Black Hills and Foothills are raising temperatures into the low to mid 40s. Temps should rise into the low 50s across these areas, and 40s across the northeast WY and western/central SD plains. A cold front will push through tonight, with a return to highs in the 20s/low 30s Monday. Cooler, unsettled weather is possible toward Christmas Eve and Christmas. A cold front will move through the area during the evening, with winds changing to the northwest-north winds and MVFR cigs and local IFR cigs behind the front.
A sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from Quebec southwestward to Texas will gradually shift eastward tonight. Once the high moves further away, southwesterly winds gusting 15-25mph will push high temperatures into the lower to middle 40s on Monday. pushing a dissipating cold front southward into the KILX CWA Monday evening.
Southeasterly winds will increase later this morning which should allow temperatures to warm into the upper 30s this afternoon in the lower valleys.
1133 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 Cold front making its way across the CWA with NW winds behind and showers exiting the eastern part of the area here in the next few hours. /Issued 315 AM EST Sun Dec 19 2021/ Cold front is currently situated from around Athens to Columbus and will continue to push southeast across the remainder of the CWA for the first part of today. The cold front will push well to the south of the CWA tonight with a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast. NListemaa Still a bit of divergence among the medium-range models concerning the path of the compact but deep upper low moving across the gulf coast region to start out the period.
1237 PM EST Sun Dec 19 2021 Clouds in the wake of a cold front persist tonight, before breaking up overnight, as high pressure arrives for an extended stay much of the week. This will allow for some radiational cooling to lower lows further more, into the lower 20s areawide tonight.