Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO TURN NORTH AND AND MERGE WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
High pressure will begin to build into the region during later today, so storms that develop will likely move out of the area or dissipate by early evening.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH ACROSS SW SD WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REACH INTO THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS SETTLEDOVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE SPREADING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TIGHTENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE PEGS THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO SNEAKING UP INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA.
STILL HAVE IN SOME ISOLATED POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST FOR RIDGE TOP CONVECTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. VFR TAFS TODAY AS WE ARE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF SURFACE/AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH LIGHT 4-7KTS SE-SSW WINDS WITH MIXING TODAY. HI RES MODELS DO DEVELOP ISOLATED RIDGE TOP SHOWERS (IE NEAR ANB/ASN). NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING THE HEAT RIDGE TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE OF THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW ARE HINTING AT SOME RIDGETOP CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THAT SHOULD ONLY BE WARMER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EVEN MORE. BILL WILL STAY WELL OFF TO OUR WEST WITH THE HEAT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE.
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR INDICATES A RATHER STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a ridge centered in the East Pacific west of Southern CA stretching into Northern Chihuahua and another ridge centered over the Southeastern US. A weakness in the pattern is centered over the Southern Plains with a weak upper low over TX. Precip chances will be much less tonight through Wednesday night as the ridge in the Pacific and Northern Chihuahua builds east into Southwest TX.
THIS DOES SEEM MORE REASONABLE AND AS A RESULT THE FORECAST GRIDS WILL HAVE A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE LOW.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE IN THE AFTN WHICH MAY BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED WELL WEST OF SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N/130W WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN CALIFORNIA BY FRI. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED VIA THE 16/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND MIDDAY SUN. AND THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH/ EASTERLY WAVE TO BE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND MON. THE GFS WAS LATER WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH/ELY WAVE VERSUS THE ECMWF.
AS THE REMANTS OF BILL MOVE NORTH THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS ITS INFLUENCE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY IS A COLD FRONT THATS GRADUALLY MOVING ESE. BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE HOT- PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S OVER MOST OF OUR AREA, LOW-MID 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. OVERNIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH INTO THE EVE AS A COLD FRONT COMPLETES A SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
210 PM PDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMING TREND TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, INTERIOR SLO, AND THE WARMEST PARTS OF THE LA/VENTURA COASTAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER, 7 MB ONSHORE GRADIENTS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A SHALLOW, BUT SOLID MARINE LYR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER AIR NEAR THE BEACHES.
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE S OF UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME SCT DIURNAL CU DVLPG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS 3-4C. ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND DRAW A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF TO PRECIPITATION AROUND THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
WEAK 850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION PROGGD AHEAD OF APPCH SURFACE/850 TROUGH.
AND WEDNESDAY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL PROVIDE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA TO THE N OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THU WITH GRADIENT WIND OFF THE LAKE. OPTED FOR MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. PERHAPS NEAR FREEZING. 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SAT HAS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHRA/TSRA AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WHILE IT APPEARS SUN MAY TREND TO DRY WEATHER WITH COLD FRONT S OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY SLICING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
609 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
BUT MODELS AGREE ON A WARMER AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES F WARMER. AND COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING UPPER DISTURBANCE CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U. AND 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
303 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55-65 F RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MAINLY ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EHI VALUES ARE HOVERING AROUND 1 IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER.
/ISSUED 327 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
BUT KELD/KMLU MAY STEER CLEAR WITH PERHAPS VCSH AS SINKING AIR IS OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THE RIDES TOLEDO BEND N INTO THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U. AND THE UPPER LOW OVER W TX WILL USHER TS BILL RIGHT UP INTO SE TX. BILL IS FCST TO MOVE UP AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN REINFORCING ITSELF OVER NM AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A PERSISTENT DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE MAY SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL OK. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL OK TODAY. THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLACE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN MO AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING COOL AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION WHICH WILL END RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE REGION. DUE THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF AR.
The dry line will stall near the northwest corner of the forecast area this evening and will await the arrival of a cold front which will sweep quickly east across the area after midnight. All models suggest storm development along the front is rather unlikely as moisture will have become quite shallow by that time, so will keep pops on the low side as the front approaches. Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, except for going cooler than the toasty GFS MOS for highs today.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AND KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COOL 546 DM UPPER LOW IS WHIRLING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY BUT ALL MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY THEN LOWERING TO IFR MAINLY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLY IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
407 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH OF WATER-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF INTERSTATE 90 IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WARMER THAN ITS 06Z COUNTERPART THAT WAS TRYING TO GIVE ABR 2-4IN OR SNOW THURSDAY MORNING.
, but it is expected to translate into the central High Plains by this evening as it begins to open up and become absorbed into a digging northern stream trof. Large upper low along the Utah/Nevada borer expected to contract as it moves east today, reaching the northeast corner of Colorado this evening before it starts to get drawn into the trough dropping across Manitoba/western Ontario. Secondary trough expected to drop southeast from the Dakotas on Thursday as a broad trough digs southward from Ontario. Despite very high PoP's over the area tonight, none of the models are indicating a solid, continuous rain shield, although areas south of I-70 would see the best odds of this happening as a cluster of stronger thunderstorms tracks along the lower Ohio River.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 50s have yielded an extensive deck of stratus this morning, that will erode quickly from west to east through the early morning hours. Closed 500 mb cyclone near 544 dm expected to be near far NW Kansas around 7 pm this evening. Cold frontal passage expected this evening, veering winds around to strong and gusty from the NW. Wraparound and NW winds diminish by 7 am Thursday, allowing for much cooler lows in the 30s. Temperatures near or just below freezing expected west of Dodge City at sunrise Thursday. Noticeably cooler on Thursday, under cool cyclonic flow aloft.
HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EXTENDED THEM SOUTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TOWARD DAYBREAK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO PLACE THE WARM FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MINNESOTA BORDER.
Also, with the positively tilted nature to the trough, the bulk of the forcing for ascent will be shifted to the north and east of the forecast area. Cooler conditions are expected in the wake of this system through the end of the week.
Other than a few isolated showers in the far west late this afternoon, we'll have one more mostly dry day today as high pressure slipping off the East Coast gradually loses its control over us. Tonight the high to our east combined with strengthening low pressure over the Midwest will pull plenty of Gulf moisture northward, resulting in widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. K Index values in the low 30s support this idea. The Midwest low will advance to the Great Lakes on Thursday and drag its trailing cold front towards us, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by evening. The NAM allows for more clearing than the GFS, resulting in slightly warmer surface temperatures, slightly warmer surface dew points, and greater late day instability.
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LAST EVENING HAS MOVED TOWARD THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER RESULTING IN AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT THE MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE FOR FRI INTO SAT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LATEST UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY. FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO.
355 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
218 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR COLD WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +2 TO +4 C BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
647 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
BUT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME BEFORE THE LOWEST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FINALLY SATURATES TO ALLOW MUCH DRIZZLE TO REACH THE GROUND. AS THE LOW PULLS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE LOW AS MOISTURE PULLS IN FROM BEHIND. SNOW POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP VERY MUCH BELOW FREEZING.
257 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MAKES ITS TREK SOUTHWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
1202 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
342 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE B.
CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW 80S TODAY.
635 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
129 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. WHERE THE FRONT/INVERTED TROF WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AND IS REFLECTIVE OF FORCED ASCENT THAT WILL STILL BE ONGOING ALOFT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NW WI TRENDING DOWNWARD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MN TO LESS THAN 10 POPS. THE UPPER TROF REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH.
A high amplitude ridge aloft will be the dominant weather feature over the northwest U. With the ridge axis still just off the coast, an upper level Canadian disturbance, embedded in the northerly flow ahead of the ridge, will push through Montana tonight and early Thursday.
201 AM PDT WED MAR 30 2016 Low pressure will exit Nevada today with only a few showers south of Highway 50. Warmer, drier conditions are expected late this week and into the weekend with light winds. The upper low over eastern Nevada is weakening this morning and beginning to slowly pull away. For this afternoon, expect mainly dry conditions in northeast flow as the low pulls away although a few showers remain possible south of Highway 50.
WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS OF WRITING WITH WIND SPEEDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY VEERING FROM ESE TO SE. A MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY LLJ /AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/ IS PROG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS SPORT SST DATA INDICATE VALUES OF 65 TO 67 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE COOLER WATERS.
410 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
BACK TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE FURTHER LIFT FOR STORM SUPPORT. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING UPR LVL TROF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW STORMS COVERAGE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT THREAT THAT A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM HAIL AND WINDS.
358 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS HAS KEPT OUR WEATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. WILL GO WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWEST IN THE EAST. THE LOWER POPS IN THE EAST SEEMED IN ORDER. AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND NO WAVES CROSSING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK QPF AND GONE WARMER WITH HIGHS (INTO THE LOWER 70S). SO HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THIS TIMEFRAME IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK LIFT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
144 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY.
441 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTH WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. TONIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THIS HIGH WAS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE HELPED RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 40/50 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS NOW. SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SE IN THE 5-10KT RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE WED.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 21Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS LARGE 500MB UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AT THIS HOUR. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN. THURSDAY SEES ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF NEVADA/UTAH. LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE LOW EJECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AND ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS MOVING NORTH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRONT. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STALLS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TONIGHT.
Strong low pressure will shift east across Neb with a trailing dryline reaching the Flint Hills region of KS by early evening 7pm/31-00z. Will still take some work to get precip going with sfc dew points still in the low/mid 30s. The high res ARW and NMM are not too bullish in moving the convection too far off the dryline initially so it looks like the best chance for severe storms late today and this evening will be over the western cwfa. As the low continues off to the east, a cold front catches up to the dryline and moves east through the cwfa overnight.
423 AM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SHEAR APART THIS MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY MARKEDLY DIMINISHED. STILL A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWING A BIT OF ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
This will bring a continued dry and milder pattern, due in part to the return of a steady SW surface flow on the back side of the upper ridge. Lows tonight will be milder and mostly in the low 40s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to reach into the low to mid 70s, before upper cloud cover slows heating in the mid to late afternoon. A CONDITIONAL severe threat will then be possible into Thursday afternoon/evening time frame as cold front lags behind.
SFC DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. BY MID-DAY WE SEE A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. A SFC TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EVENING. MEDIUM MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN WITH THE LOW AND FRONT TIMING COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO. BUT WILL FALL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
Then coverage will be on the increase this afternoon as instability increases and mid level lapse rates steepen ahead of trof. Highs on Thursday will range from around 60 degrees far north to the low 70s over east central/southeastern MO and southwestern IL.