Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The High Wind Watch was upgraded to a High Wind Warning which now covers parts of southwest and northcentral Montana starting today and persisting into Saturday afternoon. The Pacific moisture and associated mountain snow expands further into Southwest Montana during the day today and into Saturday, with similar impacts expected for the higher mountain passes of Southwest Montana, including the West Yellowstone area.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper trough is moving through the Great Lakes while a large upper ridge is over the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Zonal flow will be over Arkansas today and tonight but another upper trough will bring a southwest flow on Saturday and this trough will move through the state Saturday night. Light showers are moving through central and south Arkansas at this time asociated with a cold front. Another cold front will move through the state Saturday night.
537 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Cold front was sagging across the Concho Valley and Heartland early this morning, with north to northeast winds across the Big Country.
Light precipitation will become likely into the higher elevation of the Sierra by Friday afternoon, primarily north of Tulare county. In addition to the clouds, temperatures are now reflecting the change in the weather as the region trends cooler this morning. The region will see cooler afternoon highs this Friday as a surface cold front approaches the region today. This cooler air filtering into Central California will help tighten the pressure gradient from the Valley into the Desert. During that time, the surface cold front will travel through Central California and introduce precipitation to areas from Fresno County northward. By early Saturday morning, the disturbance will have pushed through and the surface cold front will have moved into Southern California. During the weekend, the zonal flow over the west will under go weak ridging as temperatures switch toward a warming trend.
At the surface, recent analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Plains with a cold front to the southeast stretching from central Texas to Lake Michigan.
/issued 311 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/ Cold front has moved well south of the forecast area early this morning. The lowest levels of the atmosphere will remain on the drier side so drizzle does not look likely this morning. With persistent cloud cover through the day, temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler (low to mid 50's) than yesterday by 15-25 degrees. /WCI Windy, warm, and dry conditions will develop Saturday afternoon as an upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest this morning moves across the Rockies Saturday.
517 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Much cooler day on tap today behind cold front that moved across the area late yesterday. Rain chances increase tonight with the approach of the main upper trough.
519 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Near zonal flow aloft across the area today with warmer air aloft quickly spreading east over the area. The pressure gradient tightens east of this trough with gusty south to southwest winds.
Warmer with a chance for showers and a few storms Saturday. Cool high pressure will track across the area today keeping temperatures in the 40s with dry conditions expected. Upper-level ridging will spread across the CONUS through the week, pushing the jet stream north of the region and allowing for the near normal to above normal temperatures and dry condition to persist through the end of the week. High pressure moving over the region will keep winds light through the day with clear skies.
311 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Cold front has moved well south of the forecast area early this morning. The lowest levels of the atmosphere will remain on the drier side so drizzle does not look likely this morning. With persistent cloud cover through the day, temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler (low to mid 50's) than yesterday by 15-25 degrees. /WCI Windy, warm, and dry conditions will develop Saturday afternoon as an upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest this morning moves across the Rockies Saturday.
226 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into far western South Dakota. Strong upper level trof currently moving into the Pacific Northwest track across the Rockies/Plains tonight into Saturday. While cold advection/pressure rises are on the low side for a high wind event, low level lapse rates combined with strong subsidence are favorable to tap into increasing 2000-4000ft agl winds. An inch or two of snow possible in the higher elevations.
However the latest NAM and GFS is showing post- cold front precip developing Saturday afternoon within area of isentropic upglide.
1100 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Dry and much cooler weather is on tap today, as high pressure drifts east across the Midwest. Rain is expected to move into central Illinois Saturday morning, becoming widespread in the evening ahead of a cold front.
A progressive system currently off the Pacific NW coast will move into the Rockies tnt, and then into the Plains on Saturday as a neutral tilt mid/upper trof.
As the low-level jet continues to strengthen overnight, expect showers to expand in coverage primarily across northeast OK and into northwest AR. Forecast wind profiles/hodographs suggest the possibility of rotating storms, although cloud cover/cooler temperatures could inhibit instability and limit the chances of surface based activity. The forecast beyond Saturday is looking dry and seasonally warm, with broad mid-level ridging to zonal flow expected.
/This Afternoon/ The morning sfc analysis indicates drier air backdooring SW into portions of N LA, in wake of a weak frontal passage which has dissipated as it has become absorbed in broad sfc ridging anchored over the Cntrl Plains/Mid MS Valley. /issued 410 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/ Weak cold front continues to make progress towards our I-20 terminals this morning with post frontal ceilings ranging from 5-10kft. Also continue to see isolated showers well north of the cold front in the vicinity of the TXK and ELD terminals and this will continue as well through mainly the morning hours.
A trough of low pressure is moving across the Pacific Northwest, bringing plenty of moisture with it. A cold front associated with the trough will swing through the Northern Rockies later this evening.
/Atwell/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure is building into the region, continuing the drier weather and mild temperatures.
101 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and moves eastward Saturday.
Warmer with a chance for showers and a few storms Saturday. Cool high pressure will track across the area today keeping temperatures in the 40s with dry conditions expected. Upper-level ridging will spread across the CONUS through the week, pushing the jet stream north of the region and allowing for the near normal to above normal temperatures and dry condition to persist through the end of the week. As the surface gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front, surface winds will start to increase, especially after 14Z as diurnal mixing helps to mix down those higher momentum winds at 850 mb.
/This Afternoon/ The morning sfc analysis indicates drier air backdooring SW into portions of N LA, in wake of a weak frontal passage which has dissipated as it has become absorbed in broad sfc ridging anchored over the Cntrl Plains/Mid MS Valley.
1114 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2020 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into far western South Dakota. Strong upper level trof currently moving into the Pacific Northwest track across the Rockies/Plains tonight into Saturday. While cold advection/pressure rises are on the low side for a high wind event, low level lapse rates combined with strong subsidence are favorable to tap into increasing 2000-4000ft agl winds. An inch or two of snow possible in the higher elevations.
1213 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Dry and much cooler weather is on tap today, as high pressure drifts east across the Midwest. Rain is expected to move into central Illinois Saturday morning, becoming widespread in the evening ahead of a cold front.
High pressure will build from the northwest to the north through Tonight. The high will build more to the northeast on Saturday. As the high builds more toward the northeast, the flow will become onshore.
1155 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Much cooler day on tap today behind cold front that moved across the area late yesterday. Rain chances increase tonight with the approach of the main upper trough.
1216 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Cold front was sagging across the Concho Valley and Heartland early this morning, with north to northeast winds across the Big Country.
High pressure will build into the region overnight behind the departing front. High pressure will pass quickly to the north tonight. An upper level trough and an associated cold front will race across the Great Plains on Saturday. Southerly flow will return to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday ahead of the approaching upper level trough and cold front. A warm front will lift northwards through the area late in the day on Saturday.
240 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure will remain in control for the short term with sunny skies and above average temperatures.
257 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 40s for the southern Red River Valley, and into the lower 30s near the Canadian Border. A warmer night is in store tonight with southerly winds.
This evening and tonight, warmer air will move into the region as a warm front moves through. With clear skies, the low level inversion should develop and decouple the winds from the boundary layer. On Saturday, we look for some mixing to eliminate the lower portion of this inversion, and as the low level winds increase from good subsidence behind the cold front, we expect winds to increase during the day.
1226 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 An early morning cold front will bring a breezy morning and cooler conditions to the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Thanks to an early morning cold front, a few linger showers may be possible through the morning commute mainly for locations north of the I-80 corridor.
1045 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 A secondary cold front will cross the area this afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): High pressure will remain in control for the short term with little change in the forecast.
A strong, fast moving short wave trough digs southeast through the northern Great Basin tonight and then across Colorado and Kansas on Saturday. Winds will then turn more to the northwest during the afternoon behind a cold front.
Aloft, a mid to upper level trough begins to move into the northwestern CONUS and progresses eastward through the near term. An upper ridge begins forming through the period over the midwest as warm air advection beneath it helps it to build in strength. This feature will also progress eastward towards the northeastern CONUS with the approaching mid to upper trough from the west reaching the southern plains by the end of the period. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure continues building into the CWA from the northwest.
145 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure will build into the region and provide for drier and cooler conditions.
1057 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Currently - The low level remnants of Eta, located off the Carolina Coast, extends a weak convergence band southwestward across the Florida Keys and Straits and even further towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Short Term Update - The weak trough will linger over the Florida Straits this afternoon. Winds will tend weaker in the Upper Keys and stronger in the Lower. The low cloud cover is expected to burn off later this afternoon and temperatures should be able to reach towards the mid 80s with just a little sunshine. A weak trough extending across the Florida Straits will result in light to gentle mostly northeast breezes across Keys waters. 05 inches of rain fell in Key West with no tropical cyclone in the area.
The mid/upper trough to the north is only grazing our area with quasi-zonal flow across the TN Valley, so temps will remain mild this afternoon in the mid/upper 60's, about 2 to 4 degrees above normal. VFR is expected to prevail through the period as high pressure moves into the region bringing light and variable winds of 5 kts or less. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 69 54 67 40 / 0 0 10 40 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 67 50 65 38 / 0 0 10 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 66 51 65 36 / 0 0 10 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 65 46 64 34 / 0 0 10 50 10.
1234 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 A dry cold front will slip through the area today offering only an increase in clouds. Strong high pressure will build across the area tonight, providing dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from Middle Tennessee back through Northeast and West Central Mississippi. Meanwhile, a 1029 mb ridge of high pressure is centered over Northwest Missouri. A relatively deep, open upper level trof will pass through the upper and middle MS River valley Saturday night. An associated surface cold front will pass through the Midsouth Saturday night, intercepting modest elevated instability and shear above 925mb.
As a result, am expecting fairly "mild" lows with much of the area remaining above freezing. A strong cold front will move across the FA during the day.
Should quickly lose the low clouds overnight at all terminals as drier air sweeps in. /issued 311 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/ Cold front has moved well south of the forecast area early this morning. The lowest levels of the atmosphere will remain on the drier side so drizzle does not look likely this morning. With persistent cloud cover through the day, temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler (low to mid 50's) than yesterday by 15-25 degrees. /WCI Windy, warm, and dry conditions will develop Saturday afternoon as an upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest this morning moves across the Rockies Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) The cold front that moved through during the overnight hours, has stalled near the I-10 corridor this afternoon. The cold front stalling along the I-10 corridor is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front tonight. (Saturday night through next Friday) An upper trough will move east across the Midwest Saturday night, with associated cold front pushing south across our area.
Upper level westerly winds associated with an upper level High to our south will prevail. High temps will range from the mid to upper 70s across Alabama/Georgia to the low 80s across the southeast Big Bend.
1002 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2020 A weak weather system will move through the area today with breezy winds and light snow possible over the high Sierra. Most of the moisture will remain to the north leaving only low chances for snow across the higher elevations of the southern Sierra and the far reaches of northern Lincoln County. With a strong mid-level jet sinking southward, winds will increase over the higher elevations of the Sierra this evening with gusts around 60 mph possible.
Rain chances will return Saturday night with isolated showers possible across the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and local waters with the approach of the short wave trough. With high pressure parked across the Gulf tomorrow, our winds will become more southerly which will allow our max temperatures to climb a few degrees higher than they did today with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow night with temperatures in the 60s across South Texas as winds become northerly ahead of the cold front.
Tonight, a chance for lake effect showers will persist while temperatures come in several degrees warmer than the previous night. Expect lows generally in the low to mid 30s.
242 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Low level moisture advection continues today ahead of approaching low amplitude positively tilted upper trough now moving across the southwestern Conus through Baja. A sharper, more significant upper trough will follow just upstream moving from the northern Rockies late today into the central and northern Plains on Saturday. As trough axis approaches along with attendant shear and curvature vorticity, could see showers/thunder develop along the eastern Rolling Plains in area of progged 300-400 J/Kg Mucapes near Childress, however most of the activity is likely to be just north or east of the LUB CWA. After midnight, any residual showers/isold thunder will shift east with the passage of the trough.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper trough is moving through the Great Lakes while a large upper ridge is over the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Zonal flow will be over Arkansas today and tonight but another upper trough will bring a southwest flow on Saturday and this trough will move through the state Saturday night. Light showers are moving through central and south Arkansas at this time associated with a cold front. Another cold front will move through the state Saturday night.
It should also keep everybody in the low 60s for afternoon highs, even with an abundance of sunshine and allow for Saturday morning lows at or a little cooler than this morning.
1148 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Near zonal flow aloft across the area today with warmer air aloft quickly spreading east over the area. The pressure gradient tightens east of this trough with gusty south to southwest winds.
Afternoon PoPs should be confined to our western counties from SEMO into southwest IL as we warm sector in the wake of a warm frontal passage. Saturday night, a cold front will sweep east across the area, with showers a good bet, along with a few thunderstorms.
221 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and moves eastward Saturday.
1119 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure along with drier air will move into the region today and remain in place through Saturday night.
A much more potent upper trough drops into the northern Rockies tonight. A brief period of light fzra cannot be ruled out at the onset until temps warm above freezing. More widespread precipitation is likely as forcing from the upper trough maximizes kinematic and thermal components phase by afternoon. Models highlight areas along and east of I-35 for the highest PoPs.
Currently, it appears the highest (relative) probabilities are near I-44 to the southeast. Winds will continue to veer to the northwest as a cold front moves into northwest Oklahoma late in the afternoon.
A high pressure ridge is building into the SE CONUS and is forecast to move towards the east through the day. NW-N flow this morning will veer to NE this afternoon as the high center reaches the OH Valley/ mid Atlantic states, with wind speeds 5 to 10 mph throughout the day before decreasing to 5 mph or less tonight. Today's high temperatures will be in the low 80s under partly cloudy skies, and an overnight low in the mid to upper 60s for all but immediate coastal areas which will be in the low 70s and near the Lake George/Ocala Forest region which will be in the low 60s.
Increased SE winds as the lower levels are forecast to be in place tonight, but did opt to keep with the idea of fog/low ceilings redeveloping overnight.
Mostly clear skies and light winds beneath the high will set up strong radiational cooling tonight despite the mild airmass in place. Did not take lows below the NBM numbers because increasing WAA late tonight will allow for a slow increase in upper level moisture, and guidance suggests that this will cause a band of high level cirrus along a developing warm front toward sunrise. As the mid/upper trough evolves over the Plains Sat, surface cyclogenesis will take place in the vicinity of eastern NE and western IA during the evening before moving northeastward and deepening Sat night. This will drag a cold front to a position from IA and MO to OK by Sat evening.
631 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Warmer and breezy night ahead with a period of clearing, with increasing high clouds late tonight. Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 40s for the southern Red River Valley, and into the lower 30s near the Canadian Border. A warmer night is in store tonight with southerly winds.
High pressure will sustain VFR conditions through the period. Mostly clear skies and light winds beneath the high will set up strong radiational cooling tonight despite the mild airmass in place. Did not take lows below the NBM numbers because increasing WAA late tonight will allow for a slow increase in upper level moisture, and guidance suggests that this will cause a band of high level cirrus along a developing warm front toward sunrise. As the mid/upper trough evolves over the Plains Sat, surface cyclogenesis will take place in the vicinity of eastern NE and western IA during the evening before moving northeastward and deepening Sat night. This will drag a cold front to a position from IA and MO to OK by Sat evening.
626 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Dry high pressure will move into the region, remaining in place through Saturday night.
A Low pressure system will arrive Saturday, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. Southerly winds will also increase substantially through the morning into the afternoon, bringing slightly warmer temperatures Saturday.
The highest snow amounts are expected to be across much of Elko county.
110 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2020 A weak weather system will move through the area today with breezy winds and light snow possible over the high Sierra.
544 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front that moved through during the overnight hours, has stalled near the I-10 corridor this afternoon. The cold front stalling along the I-10 corridor is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front tonight. (Saturday night through next Friday) An upper trough will move east across the Midwest Saturday night, with associated cold front pushing south across our area.
Temperatures may dip back into the 30s briefly tonight before gradually warming through the morning hours on Saturday as southerly winds progressively increase and help to bring warmer air north. Better chances for showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, will be Saturday afternoon and evening as an incoming cold front passes through. will still need to keep a close eye on any thunderstorm activity given the low CAPE-high shear environment. As the surface gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front, surface winds will start to increase, especially after 14Z as diurnal mixing helps to mix down those higher momentum winds at 850 mb.
401 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Tonight should be quiet across the CWA before an upper level trough tomorrow brings warmer temperatures, then precipitation.
527 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 40s for the southern Red River Valley, and into the lower 30s near the Canadian Border. A warmer night is in store tonight with southerly winds.
Up to 2 inches are possible in the higher elevations of Yosemite National Park. A few light showers and some sprinkles will dot the lower elevations overnight with little or no measureable rain expected in the SJV.
/Issued 240 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020/ High pressure will remain in control for the short term with sunny skies and above average temperatures.
412 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Tonight should be quiet across the CWA before an upper level trough tomorrow brings warmer temperatures, then precipitation.
714 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and moves eastward Saturday.
Temps cooling off quickly this evening with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Some fog may be possible overnight, but confidence is on the lower side for mention in the forecast.
538 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 High pressure will build into the region and provide for drier and cooler conditions.