Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Areas of light snow continue across far NE OK/NW AR this evening behind strong cold front that moved through earlier today.
FOR THIS MORNING AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WITHIN THE STRATUS WHICH IS GENERALLY FROM TRIBUNE TO COLBY AND MCCOOK EAST. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. FREEZING FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR LEOTI TO COLBY AND CULBERTSON. UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLOUDS STEADILY DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LEAVING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY SHORTLY BEFORE DARK. WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING FOG TO DEAL WITH BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO HILL CITY.
356 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016 CLEAR AND COLD ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME.
ISSUED 311 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016 LARGE AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WITH TRAILING SHARP TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY POINTS TO CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL LINGER AROUND THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. GENERALLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
/ISSUED 558 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE STATE AT THIS TIME WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SEEPING S ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW AR WILL DROP SLOWLY S INTO E TX/N LA THROUGH DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT TO BRING SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TO ALL ZONES.
Think the lower ceilings and fog will begin to lift after 18/16Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATES AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MIDDLE/EAST TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG AND SOUGH OF I-40. /ISSUED 525 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2016/ AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR PARIS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS NOT REACHING FREEZING.
351 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL STRONG WAVES MOVING INTO RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS SEEN IN RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING, ALTHOUGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER, DRIER AIR TODAY AND TOMORROW. IT WILL BE WARMER IN THE METRO AREAS, WITH LOWS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN OZARKS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 30 WEST. ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
1213 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.
559 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL STRONG WAVES MOVING INTO RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS SEEN IN RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
612 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016 COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE 5 TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT IT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.
THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY HAVE MOVED OUT OF MARICOPA COUNTY AND INTO SE ARIZONA WITH ISOLATED PRECIP AND SNOW FLURRIES LINGERING IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF GILA COUNTY.
635 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN.
535 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. WITH THE CHANGE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHEAST/NORTH BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS ABOVE. WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING ELONGATED AS THE ACTUAL CENTER PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
916 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 Upper low slowly lifting east northeast this evening into southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri later tonight.
PERSISTENT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW FREEZING. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS. WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CIGS TO MVFR BY FRI MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE OF KS.
610 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING 70M HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW AT 500MB. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS DEEP GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL AREAS.
AND HEAVIEST FREEZING DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 20F LOWER 30F DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DRY LAYER ABOVE MOIST LOW LEVEL LAYER. AND KEPT THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ROADS POSSIBLY BECOMING SLICK. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS UP INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. AS A WEAK LOW ON A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
921 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE SHOWERS AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
604 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AFTER 13Z TO 15Z FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TO 20Z FRIDAY.
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RATHER DRY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY.
IFR/MVFR cigs may scatter out briefly this evening over the E OK sites as the dry slot works its way on the south side of an upper level low pressure. /ISSUED 338 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ Compact upper level low can be seen in satellite moving across northwest OK this afternoon.
455 PM MST THU JAN 7 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE INCOMING UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NW AZ AT 23Z TO MOVE TO FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 08/15Z. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
839 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
1025 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 A CLOUDY BUT WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 55 45 57 / 60 20 20 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 56 40 54 / 60 20 20 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 54 41 52 / 60 20 20 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 57 37 55 / 70 40 10 70.
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THIS WAS COVERED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WEAK NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. IT WILL FLUSH OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ITS FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH HAS LINGERED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THESE WEAKLY FORCED EVENTS CAN BRING THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS RIGHT IN/NEXT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. SO HAVE CUT BACK AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE STATE AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PROGRESSES OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
A SERIES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEK.
302 PM PST THU JAN 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
954 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS.
WITH LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING. CURRENT LOCAL LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MOVE MOVING NORTH WITH STRONG VORT MAX. NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND COULD DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BUILDS NORTHWARD. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH VERY LOW PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSEST TO THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
9U SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THIS LOW STRATUS/FG LYR ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO EXPAND NNW FROM EXTREME NW LA INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF HARRISON/MARION/CASS/BOWIE COUNTIES IN NE TX. WITH THE LOW STRATUS/FG LYR EXPANDING FARTHER WNW INTO E TX OVERNIGHT. AND A BIT WEAKER FARTHER E OVER SW AR/N LA WHERE THE LOW STRATUS ALREADY RESIDES.
Updated at 850 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2016 Our northeastern cold spot dropped quickly with sunset to around freezing, but they should warm to similar readings as the rest of the region with thicker clouds building in from the southwest. A low pressure system passing to our NW will bring rain to the region beginning tonight and continuing into Friday. The main slug of precip will occur tonight along a trough axis.
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NE FL/SE GA LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AS A SHALLOW WEDGE SETUP INTENSIFIES WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING EASTERLY WHILE WINDS VEER IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW. WITH LIGHTER RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT THIS QUICK HITTING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS LOW PULLS NE. PERSISTENT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING COULD KEEP MAXES ON SUN BELOW FREEZING. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DRIFT EAST WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS. WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CIGS TO MVFR BY FRI MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE OF KS.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IS OPENING AND SWINGING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS A WESTERLY 110KT JET QUICKLY ERODES THE UPPER RIDGE AND USHERS ANOTHER SYSTEM ONTO THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
1029 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 CURRENTLY - A WEAK FORCED RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALONG WITH THE WEAK RIDGING FLOW HAS KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES INTO FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WESET APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FEEDING INTO THE LOW FURTHER NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
939 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTH MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
) BOTH STORMS COMBINED DUMPED 1 TO 3 FEET OF NEW SNOW ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR MOST RECENT STORM FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
/ISSUED 335 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016/ AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA, WHILE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING SFC WINDS OUT OF NORTH WITH LIGHT WINDS. SINCE OUR COLD CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE DIGGING THROUGH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WOULD BE RAIN, WHILE WEAK FORCING WOULD KEEP IT LIGHT.
COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF PUSHES THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO MONTANA. BIGGEST CHANGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL BRING WEAK LIFT TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE TO ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT.
613 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE OBSERVED LOWS THIS MORNING WILL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. RIDGE AXIS WL BE OVR THE CWA TONIGHT WITH NR CALM WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED TOMORROW AS H5 RIDGE AXIS BISECTS CWA BY THE END OF THE PD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE CHEYENNE RIDGE MAY SEE SOME HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR 4 INCHES.
BUT LIKELY MIXING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON GROUND TEMPS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING TYPE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT BUT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC LEAF OF A NOW OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND S. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN SOME PLACES HAVE RISEN OR HELD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
1038 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BLACK HILLS WILL STAY ABOVE INVERSION AND THUS WILL NOT SEE FOG. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD RESULTING IN SOME SNOW MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH CWA TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THERE IS SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE IT GOT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER END OF OUR RANGES. THESE WEAKLY FORCED EVENTS CAN BRING THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS RIGHT IN/NEXT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. SO HAVE CUT BACK AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE STATE AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PROGRESSES OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ROADS POSSIBLY BECOMING SLICK. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE TROF IN THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND INCREASES PRESSURE GRADIENT.
659 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
812 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AND TOUCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE IN MOST LOCATIONS AND THUS MAXIMUMS SET AT THE HIGHEST RANGE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TO REALLY PICK UP AS A STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER MS VALLEY (WAY TO OUR NORTH). MIXING DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN MOST SPOTS AND LOWS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.
THIS MEANS WE WILL NEED QUITE A BIT OF LIFT TO GET THIS MOISTURE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IT MAY EVEN TAKE A BIT TO GET THE MOUNTAIN TOPS TO SEE SNOWFALL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PROGS ALL SUGGEST A VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
527 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK REMAINS. TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THURSDAY OVER THE SNOW PACK.
A TURN TOWARDS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS ON TAP TODAY AND FRIDAY. AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A cold front currently in central Washington and Oregon will move into central Idaho early this morning and into western Montana by mid morning. A short lived ridge of high pressure will decrease precipitation chances for Friday, although a few light showers and cloud cover will likely linger.
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INLAND. THUS THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM NORTH OF THE DISTRICT.
624 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVER THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER NE TODAY AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE, ADVECTING IN A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 70S (CLIMO MID-UPPER 70S).
1026 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY. COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OF WED - IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S - WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILARLY COLDER WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. AT THE BASE OF A STRONG MID- UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SHEAR QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS MORNING TO EASTERN CANADA BY SAT MORNING. WARMER AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. A TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE PAC NW COAST WITH A STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE ATTM. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
936 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT RETURNS WILL CONDENSE WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING. TEMPERATURES WERE HEADED DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY UNDERGO A SLOW TRANSITIONARY PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AT THE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE EAST SIDE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARNING-LEVEL GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADE IN OREGON AND OVER ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING WARMER AND DRY WITH RIDGING MOVING IN.
THIS BLEND OF LOW CLDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ON THROUGH MID MORNING AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS THE DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND THE LOWER LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. DRY AND STABLE 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF TX THROUGHOUT TODAY AND FRI WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NEAR ZERO POPS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE FEBRUARY. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH TODAY AND FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PGF WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE INCREASE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.