Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Slightly cooler towards the coast and slightly warmer inland for Friday. a pair of colder low pressure systems will move through Southern California bringing periods of showers and gusty west to northwest winds for the mountains and deserts. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Weak offshore flow will bring much warmer weather today west of the mountains with high temperatures mostly in the 70s. Friday will be slightly cooler near the coast and slightly warmer for inland areas as weak onshore flow returns near the coast. a pair of colder low pressure systems will move through Southern California.
Morning sounding from our office shows a very strong inversion in the lower levels, and forecast soundings suggest this will be going nowhere fast. Showers associated with a passing cold front have come to an end across central Illinois early this morning: however, cloud cover continues to blanket the area. As a result, have gone with a cloudy forecast today with chilly highs in the lower to middle 40s. A vigorous wave apparent on water vapor imagery near the Aleutian Islands will pivot S/SE around a deep upper low anchored off the coast of British Columbia.
There will be some intervals of higher cirroform cloud cover as a short wave trof moves over the region this late morning. are expected Friday and Friday night ahead of a cold front.
A weak and shallow cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight into Friday. The shower and thunderstorm activity could begin ahead of the arrival of the frontal boundary where the higher values of relative humidity resides coupled with best lift.
enjoy the sunshine and warm temperatures! An upper level trof will move across the the Central Plains today. In its wake a cold front will drop south thru the CWA tonight and Friday. Have opted to continue the High Wind Watch at Guadalupe Pass for this evening thru Friday morning for gap winds as the front moves thru. Have kept it cooler than the different MOS guidances due to cloud cover and colder airmass. Dry weather will be the rule for the upcoming busy travel weekend with ridging overhead.
With the low clouds and abundant moisture in the low levels along with fog being reported at some ob sites, fog will be a good bet. As indicated by the previous shift, with the moisture in the region along with some forcing and seeding from cirrus into the lower levels, there could a possibility of snow showers along with some possible freezing drizzle. It still looks the best chance for the freezing drizzle will be in NW WI. An area of high pressure will build into the region on Friday which may bring some breaks in the clouds and near normal temperatures.
Surface wise, an extensive ridge is aligned along the entire eastern United States and down the Florida peninsula. A large region of high pressure over the entire eastern United States will shift into the western Atlantic ocean, as a decaying cold front drops down the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, another continental area of high pressure will bridge the aforementioned front as it migrates into the southeast United States this weekend.
A pacific cold front moving through cntl WY will sweep east into the Neb Panhandle this morning and scour out the arctic air and clouds across ncntl Neb this afternoon. The dense freezing fog this morning is forming mainly on the wrn fringe of the arctic drape. Temperatures will gradually warm above freezing this morning reducing the hazard. The freezing fog advisory operates until 12z and will be reevaluated at that time for a possible extension or down-grade to a dense fog advisory.
327 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Current surface analysis shows low over southern SK, with cold front over far eastern portions of MT and WY. Areas of fog will linger until the cold front crosses later this morning. Highs will mostly be in the low to mid 40s, with 30s over the higher Black Hills. A ridge builds across the region tonight into Friday with mostly clear skies and warmer temps.
A weak cold front will pass through the area from the Plains tonight. High pressure will follow, and this will promote clearing.
644 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 Aviation A weak area of low pressure centered over Michigan will track slowly east through Friday night.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri as a subtle upper level ridge builds in overhead. Another weak impulse will slide through the region early Friday bringing a dry cold frontal boundary through the area. Upper level ridging will occur yet again (a little less subtle than today), which should warm us back into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
627 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 A low pressure system will move to the east today allowing precipitation to come to an end across the region. Precipitation will come to an end today as a low pressure system moves off to the east.
515 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 Surface analysis this morning had the low pressure system that gave the area a wintry mix now over lower MI while a ridge of high pressure was building in from MN/IA. Lots of stratus in place across the region in the wake of the low. Ridge of high pressure will drift across the area today, but stratus will be trapped under the subsidence inversion. Look for highs in the middle 30s to the lower 40s. Attention then turns to an incoming mid-level trough for tonight which looks to give the area some light snow. Decreasing clouds expected for Friday night as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region.
Ridging then builds over the region for the remainder of the period. At the surface, a low pressure system will slide across the Central Plains today, with an inverted trough tracking across the CWA and likely becoming the focus for precipitation. The strength of the trough has weakened from the last few model runs. The precipitation will come to an end during the evening, with the remainder of the short term period looking dry as the region becomes situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure over the Rockies.
1042 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 Warm air will overspread the area this afternoon through Friday, followed by a cold front passage Friday night with cooler and dry air for the weekend. Zone of WAA and lift associated with a progressive mid/upper trough is currently in the process of shifting east of the area and will exit off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by midday. 10" with the highest amounts of around 0. Subsidence drying in the wake of the exiting trough will allow for increasing intervals of sunshine by the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 60s north to lower 70s. The next mid/upper level short wave trough will push through the region late Friday through Friday night. The main cold front is now expected to push through on Friday night.
Water vapor satellite imagery showed some enhanced mid level moisture from north to south ahead of a longwave trough from MT/WY/CO/AZ. This jet will quickly work across Nebraska and into Iowa today advancing the trough. This was in an area of high pressure with weak low level flow, temperatures in the 30s and dewpoints in the 30s. Through today and early this evening lift increases with steepening lapse rates with the progress of the longwave trough and the short range models bring a local maximum of vorticity across the forecast area. There may be some breaks in the clouds near the KS border and temperatures could be a little warmer there.
A cold front now entering northwest Middle Tennessee will be near Nashville by 12z, and to Crossville by 17z. A little warm-up will occur over eastern areas between 12z and 17z, with temperatures likely to push into the lower to middle 60s before leveling off or falling a few degrees as we head through the afternoon. High pressure builds in over the weekend, bringing along some dry and seasonably cool temperatures.
455 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 A pleasant Thanksgiving Day weather pattern over southeastern Texas as Mississippi River Valley-centered high pressure ridging expands down over east state. providing mainly clear skies and east-southeast breezes with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 70s. Yesterday's cold front now residing over the far offshore waters will begin to lift back north as a warm front through the day. Moisture ridging (1. 5 inch pwats) will coincide with a Coastal Bend vicinity warm frontal boundary and these two elements will likely generate showers around the Matagorda Bay region on Friday. in tandem with this higher moisture/warm front region over the west-southwestern CWA. The week ends with northeastern-based high pressure winning out and keeping the region precipitation free.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Surface obs and the latest frontal analysis from WPC indicates that the cold front has stalled out over the RGV with northeast winds prevail over the northern and western counties with light and variable winds prevailing over the southern counties. and this will usher another weak cold front into the region.
1036 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 A low pressure system will move to the east today allowing precipitation to come to an end across the region. Surface cold front bisecting Ohio, pushing east through ILN/s eastern counties.
Cold front pushing across the region this morning. Clearing skies expected during the afternoon with the upper trof swinging into the northern plains. Upper ridge then builds across the state for continued dry and mild weather through the holiday weekend. Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a ridge over the Great Plains with a trough over far western CONUS and Canada. Behind the western Trough is another Ridge/trough couplet over the Gulf of Alaska.
Deep layer q-vector convergence persists through 15z for east half but then fades away as trough aloft continues to weaken. Soundings indicate deeper moisture may be stripped out enough that any lift that does occur within the low- level moist layer would result in drizzle or maybe flurries. Icing potential from the drizzle seems minimal today with temps in most areas already above freezing. Since temps over interior west are currently just blo freezing, could be some freezing drizzle there early this morning before temps warm enough to end that hazard. With sfc temps at or just blo freezing over higher terrain of west and ncntrl could see some freezing drizzle. Upper trough over the Great Lakes will begin to shift east on Friday. As mid level support and moisture departs Friday evening any precipitation will likely end as drizzle or freezing drizzle.
Snow free areas could see temperatures in the 40s with slightly cooler temperatures where more snow cover exists. Longwave trough over the west coast will move into the Central Plains by the end of the period. Low amplitude longwave ridge remains over Hudson Bay/eastern Canada. Short wave trough south of the Aleutians will move across the northern Plains on Mon and Tue. Upper trough will hang around through Wed, and Thu in the eastern zones.
High pressure is the dominant weather feature today through the weekend.
The current flood watch has the highest rainfall rates staring in the evening, but with the winds blowing any remaining leave sand breaking small twigs possibly contributing to blocking storm drains and culverts have left the earlier timing of the flood watch where it was.
The time will be limited for any moisture return before a cold front arrives tonight. As it does, a cold front will move down the Plains approaching the northwestern part of the forecast area after sunset and sweeping through the southeast before dawn Friday. Moisture will be limited but there will be a slight chance of showers after midnight tonight southwest of a Breckenridge to Cameron line. Lows will range from the upper 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. Some low rain chances will linger into Friday morning south of a Breckenridge to Centerville line.
/issued 411 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Surface obs and the latest frontal analysis from WPC indicates that the cold front has stalled out over the RGV with northeast winds prevail over the northern and western counties with light and variable winds prevailing over the southern counties. and this will usher another weak cold front into the region.
856 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 A pacific cold front is entering Western Nebraska. The freezing fog advisory has been converted to a dense fog advisory and expanded west through Chase county until 15z. The 200 foot ceiling likely represents 1/4 mile or less visibility in the highlands north and south of town. A pacific cold front moving through cntl WY will sweep east into the Neb Panhandle this morning and scour out the arctic air and clouds across ncntl Neb this afternoon. The dense freezing fog this morning is forming mainly on the wrn fringe of the arctic drape. Temperatures will gradually warm above freezing this morning reducing the hazard. The freezing fog advisory operates until 12z and will be reevaluated at that time for a possible extension or down-grade to a dense fog advisory.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the area from the west this afternoon through Friday with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
1038 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 CURRENTLY - High pressure centered off the Georgia coast continues to provide moderate northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Deep layered ridging aloft is maintaining substantial mid level dry air and a strong inversion ranging from 850 to 800 mb. Short Term Update - The high off the Georgia Coast will remain fairly static while pressures fall a bit in the western Caribbean. High pressure off the Atlantic Coast and lower pressure in the western caribbean is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes on Keys waters.
Northwest winds will slowly diminish throughout the day as high pressure moves across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Late tonight a passing trough seen both aloft and a surface reflection will cross the area.
Upper trough now into the Upper Ohio River Valley as a surface cold front is crossing our region. High pressure will build in from the west and dominate our weather for the weekend.
548 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 The freezing fog advisory has been converted to a dense fog advisory and expanded west through Chase county until 15z. The 200 foot ceiling likely represents 1/4 mile or less visibility in the highlands north and south of town. A pacific cold front moving through cntl WY will sweep east into the Neb Panhandle this morning and scour out the arctic air and clouds across ncntl Neb this afternoon. The dense freezing fog this morning is forming mainly on the wrn fringe of the arctic drape. Temperatures will gradually warm above freezing this morning reducing the hazard. The freezing fog advisory operates until 12z and will be reevaluated at that time for a possible extension or down-grade to a dense fog advisory.
A few pockets of light showers and areas of fog will continue across the Southern Appalachian Region early this morning as a weakening cold front approaches the area. The low level cloud deck will remain in place for much of the TAF period at TRI.
Variable restricted flight conditions in fog/freezing fog over other sites will also improve by late morning. A weak cold front will move through nern OK sites around 03z and through MLC/FSM after 06z. In addition to the dense fog potential, a couple of sites have briefly reported freezing fog, and as such, will include a patchy mention of freezing fog generally from Claremore to Tahlequah to Sallisaw. A fairly fast moving, dry cold front will push through the region tonight, with a brief decrease in temperatures following on Friday.
High pressure will bring a dry and stable airmass to the area today.
High risk of Rip Currents east coast beaches today and Happy A low level trough will be moving westward today from the Atlantic waters through South Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will also slowly weaken today into Friday, as low pressure over the Great Lakes moves east into the northeast portion of the United States. This will allow for the associated cold front over the Tennessee Valley to move southeast today and down the Florida Peninsula on Friday.
85 inches as the cold front slowly moves east of our area and washes out today. The bulk of this moisture is within the lowest 3500 feet with much drier air above that. Winds are from the north in the lowest 1000 feet and then become from the southwest and veer to the west-northwest in the upper levels.
An upper trough will move across the region tonight, but there is not much moisture available, so any precipitation that falls will be light.
A weak cold front will arrive from the west tonight and will be followed by high pressure. A weak cold front will pass through the area from the Plains tonight. High pressure will follow, and this will promote clearing.
434 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 A short wave trough will push across the Panhandles today and usher in a cold front from northwest to southeast by mid to late morning and then continuing through the afternoon hours. Lack of any low and mid level moisture will preclude any precipitation with the front and upper trough.
409 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Shower band along the cold front now moving across our mountains and should be past by about 7 am. Models have backed away from a good temperature profile for an amplified wave behind the trough this morning, but there is a little pocket of subsidence evident in the water vapor satellite pictures that will be moving over the Front Range between 12z and 15z. Plains winds driven by the low level gradient will be slower to come down, but some decrease is likely during the afternoon. Still a little wind for the ridges/foothills and most of the plains which could result in evening or midnight lows in places like DIA and Boulder with some warming by morning.
1030 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 A cold front is located just to the east of the area moving onto the Plateau. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 46 68 40 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 44 63 39 / 20 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 44 65 38 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 42 62 35 / 20 10 10 10.
ISOLD to SCT SHRA develop over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains this evening and spread to the remainder of South Central Texas overnight into Friday as isentropic lift increases due to a weak cold front passing through our area. A weak and shallow cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight into Friday. The shower and thunderstorm activity could begin ahead of the arrival of the frontal boundary where the higher values of relative humidity resides coupled with best lift.
600 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 A weak cold front cross today.
425 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Have updated the forecast to expand the Freezing Fog Advisory to include Hitchcock County in Nebraska.
/issued 256 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016/ With progressive flow across the CONUS bringing the interface between a ridge to the east and a short wave trough crossing the Rockies, the South Plains will see southwest to west winds today, although speeds will remain fairly modest. A slight increase in progged thicknesses from yesterday afternoon and the slight downslope component to the low level flow points to highs about 6-8 degrees warmer, in line with objective guidance. However, with the aforementioned upper trough moving across the central plains this afternoon, a cold front will move into the northern part of the forecast area, moderating temperatures slightly there.
A weak low pressure system passing to the north of Arizona today will bring cooler temperatures and breezy winds to the state today.
The associated weak cold front/surface trof will likewise move across central Kansas this afternoon. Slightly cooler/drier air will advect across the area tonight with maxs closer to seasonal climo on Friday.
Winds will slowly back from NW to S today as a 925 mb inverted ridge axis transits the state, but with weak flow behind the ridge and increasing clouds out ahead of tonight's system, opted to hold 100 percent sky cover until late tonight. Also shrunk the diurnal range between the high and low temperatures for today and tonight owing to these clouds. However, amounts should be less than half an inch given the decaying nature of the trough and its limited moisture supply.
Expect precip slow to develop as NAM soundings show a lot of dry air above the low level inversion that is currently trapping stratus over us.
321 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Have updated the forecast to expand the Freezing Fog Advisory to include Hitchcock County in Nebraska.
948 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND EAST TENNESSEE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 73 50 82 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 69 49 78 / 50 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 70 49 80 / 30 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 63 46 74 / 70 40 20 20.
1115 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY BEHIND A SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST. UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST AS THE OVERALL TROUGH SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
944 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 AS REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WITH TROFS OVER THE EPAC AND OHIO VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW FCST TO STRENGTHEN SUN INTO MON AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS UPPER TROF. WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE CLOSED LOW AFFECTING WEST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT WITHIN THAT CONSENSUS IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS THE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SUBSEQUENT SHIFT NORTH BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW BEING PROGGED TO SLOW AND SHIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY BROUGHT CHANGES IN THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AS THE JETMAX PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH KCTB AROUND 21Z.