Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND WILL PUSH TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW S/WVS EJECTING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TIME TO TIME.
A warm Thanksgiving day is expected ahead of the cold front with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned wave and jet.
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR THIS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINT SOUTH WILL BE INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
Large upper low that will be effecting our weather for the next several days will cause showers today. Most impactful will be numerous snow showers over the higher terrain which is current in place over I-80 corridor. Rasch Center of closed upper low is now over northwest Nevada early this morning. Skies have cleared across a large part of the Sacramento Valley and Coast Range and temperatures in the North Valley have dipped into the lower to mid 30s. The low will edge slowly into central Nevada today with northerly flow over NorCal. Flurries will likely continue across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra while freeze risk will remain a concern for the Central Valley during the late night and early morning hours.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET/ECMWF NUMBERS AS A START AND BUMPED UP A BIT FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. AM EXPECTING THE HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE COAST TO CONTINUE. A CFW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
1117 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. BROAD MID-ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HELP CONTINUE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
1234 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
East to northeast low level flow will continue tonight with surface ridging centered off the New England coast. Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 50s across the north to the upper 50s near the coast.
238 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT START TO A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MANY FOLKS. THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
128 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
245 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APROACH FROM THE WEST.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE TEMPS STARTED OUT BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL START TO RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND 850 BAROCLINIC SAG INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THEN CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE AFTERNOON.
Expect a mild night with lows in the low to mid 40s.
1242 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO LATE WEEK.
Southerly winds and ridging building aloft will bring warming temperatures today through Thanksgiving. Dry conditions will prevail through this period, though some increased cloud cover can be expected Thursday ahead of a slowly approaching cold front.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY TODAY WITH INCREASING SLIGHT RIDGING TONIGHT. BUT THE STRONG RIDGE BELOW IS BRINGING INCREASED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA). WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF THIS MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK (6K-8K FEET) OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA (ESPECIALLY MISSISSIPPI ZONES WHERE FORCING IS STRONGEST AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE).
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
230 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMP TRENDS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND AND INCREASED THE HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR SO.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FIRST VERY LIGHT IF ANYTHING ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. AND THE SECOND A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW LAST NIGHT. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SPREAD WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. BROAD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE INTO UTAH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH.
251 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET FROM PONCA NEBRASKA TO JUST NORTH OF SPENCER IOWA AND SOUTH.
1030 AM MST WED NOV 25 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE HILINE AND CENTRAL MT AS WINTER STORM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER BC/ALASKA PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO ALBERTA AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES DEEPER INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE THROUGH MT INTO CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CANADA, LEAVING A DEFORMATION AXIS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH SW MT TONIGHT AS THE GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION SEPARATES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ALOFT.
1246 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS THANKSGIVING EVE AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY BUT SUNNY SKIES WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL AND HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 420 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE AN ANOMALOUS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENTLY OBSERVED. BUT THE WARMTH SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE AND ESE FLOW EMANATING FROM A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WEDGING AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BUT A FEW COOLER ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL MS.
Dry weather will dominate the next several days under high pressure. Given all the cold air that will be in place combined with generally stable conditions and light winds, it will be pretty difficult to mix out the lower valleys where cold pools are favorable to set up. Cold pools that develop in the lower valleys may be hard to scour out, producing air quality issues.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS.
156 PM PST WED NOV 25 2015 Cold night tonight with some areas dropping a bit below the freezing mark. Looks like winds should increase a bit later tonight in north valley which should keep widespread freezing temperatures to mainly localized areas.
/issued 358 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ Today will be our last day of fairly quiet weather before an upper low across the Great Basin promotes unsettled/moist SW flow aloft,increasing rain chances late tonight through the holiday weekend. A skinny swath of fog has developed on the western edge of the low clouds across Lea county east into the western Permian Basin. The above mentioned upper low will dig in 28 to the Great Basin region by tonight and remain fairly stationary for the next several days, resulting in persistent SW flow aloft.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN ATMOSPHERIC FLOW OVER CNTRL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. AND ITS FAIRLY APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS SYSTEM HAS BASICALLY STALLED ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFIES INTO WRN CANADA/SRN ALASKA. WITH THE CLOSED LOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROVIDING PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT HOLDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH ARIZONA AS OF 21Z AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL PHOENIX SITES. WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN A BIT. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH.
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U. S AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INDIANA/S WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER ONE MORE DAY.
1147 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015 High pressure sliding off to the east while the next storm system spins up over the southern Plains. The CWA is in between the high pressure to the east and the developing weather system in the plains. In this position, breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures are to be expected today.
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS HELPING FEED EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER TOP OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMING FROM THE GULF. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRESENT A VERY HUMID FEEL TO THE HOLIDAY AIR EVEN WHERE IT ISNT RAINING.
REGIONAL SFC OBS CLEARLY SHOWING GULF MOISTURE ADV IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH A PRONOUNCED MOISTURE TONGUE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE SRN CWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 40S. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID/FREEZING TO FROZEN WILL BE RATHER SLOW OVER THE THE REST OF THE CWA THUR MORNING/AFTN WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR LIGHT FZRA/ICE ACCUM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS IN MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH ASCENT VIA DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE THE WRN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 60S. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT NIGHT TONIGHT. AS LOWS ON THE RIDGES STAY IN THE 40S. AND LOWS IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED FROM THE LOWER VALUES FELT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Once the cold front kicks into gear, rain will overspread the region from west to east from the mid/late afternoon hours into Thanksgiving Night.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND A DEEP LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE BOTH 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
248 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST U. COAST RIDGING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
359 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, IS KEEP A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER WILL BE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NE MN THIS AFTERNOON AND NW WI THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF THE FREEZING PRECIP AND ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NE MN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
334 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding continues to be the main forecast concern, with a limited freezing rain/light icing concern northwest of Tulsa. Moisture levels are near unheard of values for this time of year, and as a strong but shallow cold front drops south into the area late Thursday and Thursday evening, the stage will be set for heavy rainfall.
IN RESPONSE WAA WITH A 35-45 KT LLJ AND A WEAK S/W TROF. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MN. THEN DEEPEN LATE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG THE SLOW-MOVG COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NV/UT BORDER TONIGHT AND PULL IN A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. THE CLOSED LOW DESPITE ITS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LOSE A LOT OF ITS MOISTURE EAST OF THE WASATCH RANGE IN UTAH SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HUGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE TO OUR WEST AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING THIS LOW TO RETROGRADE. OR THE CLOSED LOW WILL LOSES ITS CHARACTERISTICS AS IT EXITS COLORADO AND THEN A TOTALLY NEW CLOSED LOW FORMS TO THE WEST.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
300 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 High pressure is sliding off to the east coast this afternoon, and another system is developing over the Plains.
1237 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APROACH FROM THE WEST.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST SD TO SOUTHWEST WY. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. 1037MB HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST NV. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UT BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN STALL. WHICH MAY RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER EASTERN FOOTHILLS WITH FROUDE NUMBER AROUND 1 FOR KRAP AT 12Z THURSDAY.
338 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) A prominent trough continues to dig over the western CONUS this afternoon, setting the stage for a wet Thanksgiving weekend. Downstream of this trough, the flow aloft is becoming more southwesterly over time, with a strong subtropical jet intensifying across the region.
238 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ITS AXIS NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE CENTER IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT ITS AXIS REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST.
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD RIDGING IN THE MIDLEVELS REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH WARMING FROM H85-H7 OVER SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY. WHILE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND MAINTAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH WESTERLIES SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMING MORE MILD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NOTED DURING THE DAY TODAY.
950 AM MST WED NOV 25 2015 CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE HILINE AND CENTRAL MT AS WINTER STORM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER BC/ALASKA PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO ALBERTA AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES DEEPER INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE THROUGH MT INTO CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CANADA, LEAVING A DEFORMATION AXIS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH SW MT TONIGHT AS THE GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION SEPARATES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ALOFT.
256 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST.
A BLOCKING PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN B. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT COLDER AND DAMP WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLIER THIS WEEK WAS IN THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN AND THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING ALONG THE B. THIS BUILDING UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ONSHORE INTO B.
252 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINE COAST IS EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR RENO NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING FOUR DAY HOLIDAY PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ESPECIALLY HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR.
311 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THINGS GET A BIT MESSY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI AND GIVEN THE TRICKY THERMAL PROFILE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS COLDER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 20S.
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AND GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. FRIES HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
205 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin this morning with an upper trough extending down through the Mississippi River Valley.
253 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery under a northwest flow aloft. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.
BUT TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
EVEN DELAYED MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASING AS WE SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM H5 TO H6 BEHIND A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY IMPULSE. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH NORTHEAST SONORA AND NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL WITH THE IDEA OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7 THETA-E RIDGE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THAT REGION. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOLIDLY EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY THE DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FLOW TO ORGANIZE JUST ENOUGH FOR BETTER STORM STRUCTURE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION NW ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST DRAWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY DIGGING ESE INTO NRN ALBERTA WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE WAS PUSHING NE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR TNGT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH. THE STALLED FNT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CNTRL WI THRU SAT MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AS A WRMFNT AS WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LWR TO MID 80S SOUTH EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MI AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINKLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF ALLOWING FOR INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2. 00 INCHES CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 87-90 DEGREES WITH THE LOWER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES.