Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will be gusty this morning as a weak low pressure approaches from the west and the pressure gradient steepens between it and a broad high pressure over the southeast US. Wind gusts will then subside during the late morning to early afternoon following the passage of a warm front. Sunday, southerly winds will support highs in the low 70s.
/issued 317 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ Early this morning temperatures across the area were similar to this time yesterday morning with lows so far in the low to mid 40s. The most notable changes were at Lake Charles and Beaumont where temperatures were 3 degrees and 5 degrees cooler respectively. A weak upper disturbance was noted in the GFS model and confirmed with Satellite across New Mexico with some mid clouds spilling over the weak upper level ridge across east Texas. Dry weather is expected to continue Saturday and Sunday as the airmass remains too dry for anything but perhaps some virga across the extreme western part of southeast Texas due to weak impulses generating out of the weak upper short wave trough that will be slowing moving in central Texas from New Mexico.
628 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
402 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 H5 ridging continues to dominate the weather across western and central WY through the short term period. H7 temps remain in the +2 to +5 range across the state today, which will translate to high temperatures in the 70s for the lower elevations and higher elevation in the 50s. Minimal change noted for Easter Sunday as well, with H7 temps holding at 3 to 6 degrees and highs in the 70s for the lower elevations and the 50s for higher elevations.
Today, upper level ridging will begin to build over the Rockies. Light winds, maximum insolation and a warmer airmass will help temperatures rise into the upper 70s and even some areas seeing low 80s. Sunday will be even warmer as upper ridging continues to build in and 850 temps warm. Lee troughing will deepen allowing south- southwesterly winds to increase during the afternoon hours. so not too far away if we continue to trend warmer.
First, subfreezing temps will likely occur near the TN River this morning, with patchy frost accompanying mid 30s lows west of the MS River.
900 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure builds across the region today then slides to the south by tonight. High pressure remains over the region today with mostly clear skies and afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s away from the water. Areas closer to the coast and along the eastern shore will top out in the low 50s. High pressure is suppressed to the south by this evening which will allow winds to take on a southerly component. Mid and high level clouds will be on the increase tonight as well (especially N) which will result in warmer overnight low temps, generally in the mid 30s. A weak trough will drop south across the area Sunday, turning winds to the west by the afternoon. Low temps fall into the low and mid 40s.
653 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Some elevated moisture will move across Se Mi this morning through mid/late afternoon in associated with the passage of a warm front. After another cold morning, temperatures will rebound nicely today to around 60 as brisk southwesterly flow around high pressure to the south advects milder air into the area. For tonight, high pressure passing north of the Great Lakes will drive a shallow weak front south to about the southern border before stalling.
500 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE Weakening upper low to move over NM and will be located over se NM by 04/00Z.
While Rawlins was the only site to hit a record yesterday, it seems like all sites are on track to come within a few degrees or hit records this afternoon as a 500 mb ridge passes across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle slowly.
A little cooler this afternoon but still well above normal temperatures will near record warmth.
543 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: VFR throughout the period with high pressure over the region and a few high cirrus clouds. High pressure ridge axis stretches from the eastern Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast this morning. Light winds will come around to more southerly/southeasterly as the ridge axis slips just to the east. Overnight, a few more clouds may stream into the region and that southerly flow will keep the overnight lows considerably warmer, dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by early morning Sunday. The period starts off tomorrow with generally broad and weak northwesterly flow across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Low-level southerly flow with plenty of insolation will lead to temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s today. With clear skies continuing and high pressure controlling the weather, one more cold night is in the forecast tonight. Low temperatures should range from the mid 30s over NE AL to near 40 for NW AL, with a few of the normally colder spots in the lower 30s. The lower end of this range, especially 37 and cooler could be affected by a late night frost. After a chilly start, the rest of Easter Sunday should feature more sunny skies and temperatures even warmer, rising into the upper 60s east to lower 70s west. Not as cool for Sunday night with lows in the lower 40s.
CIGs drop to MVFR at all sites tonight while the upper level trough approaches to bring another round of SHRA. A weak upper level impulse moving into and over Central Texas ahead of an upper level trough moving over Southern New Mexico will provide the forcing for isolated to widely scattered showers this morning into early and mid afternoon. The upper level trough will move over Western and Central Texas forcing another round of isolated to widely scattered showers overnight into Sunday.
445 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure ridge axis stretches from the eastern Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast this morning. Light winds will come around to more southerly/southeasterly as the ridge axis slips just to the east. Overnight, a few more clouds may stream into the region and that southerly flow will keep the overnight lows considerably warmer, dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by early morning Sunday. The period starts off tomorrow with generally broad and weak northwesterly flow across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
948 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will bring sunny skies to NY and PA through Saturday afternoon, before a storm system spreads widely scattered rain and snow showers across our region Saturday night. High pressure will return Sunday with milder weather. High pressure will yield a chilly morning, followed by a milder afternoon Saturday, though temperatures will average a few degrees below normal across NY and PA. On Sunday, a ridge will build through the Central U.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: High pressure ridge axis stretches from the eastern Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast this morning. Light winds will come around to more southerly/southeasterly as the ridge axis slips just to the east. Overnight, a few more clouds may stream into the region and that southerly flow will keep the overnight lows considerably warmer, dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by early morning Sunday. The period starts off tomorrow with generally broad and weak northwesterly flow across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1020 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will shift to the east today offering sunny weather conditions.
609 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will bring sunny skies to NY and PA through Saturday afternoon, before a storm system spreads widely scattered rain and snow showers across our region Saturday night. High pressure will return Sunday with milder weather. High pressure will yield a chilly morning, followed by a milder afternoon Saturday, though temperatures will average a few degrees below normal across NY and PA. On Sunday, a ridge will build through the Central U.
950 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 (Issued 949 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Winds will be gusty out of the southwest this morning until the low level jet moves off to our east. Weak low pressure will move into northern WI this afternoon and help to weaken the pressure gradient and therefore wind speeds. Winds will be gusty this morning as a weak low pressure approaches from the west and the pressure gradient steepens between it and a broad high pressure over the southeast US. Wind gusts will then subside during the late morning to early afternoon following the passage of a warm front. Sunday, southerly winds will support highs in the low 70s.
607 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will build in from the west today into Sunday.
357 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The biggest story in the short term will be the high chances for record breaking high temperatures. A strong ridge has already brought warm temperatures to the region as most of us noticed yesterday. Outside of the warm temperatures, expect some clouds to develop over the higher terrain thanks to daytime heating and some high clouds brushing NE UT and NW CO heading into the evening hours. Tomorrow, a system will begin moving into the PacNW and flatten the ridge of high pressure.
657 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front located in western MN, with winds east of the front still out of the south as winds behind the front weaken and shift northwest.
The latest trends indicate near record high temperatures are likely today with readings in the low to mid 80s across southwest and south central North Dakota. Wide range of temperatures early this morning, depending on wind (warmer) or lack of (cooler). Southerly winds ahead of the trough central and east will transition to more west/northwest with the trough passage mid to late afternoon. Tight pressure gradient ahead of the trough will see sustained winds to 20 knots. Broad ridge will slowly flatten through Sunday night as embedded waves move within flow aloft.
1230 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will bring sunny skies to NY and PA through Saturday afternoon, before a storm system spreads widely scattered rain and snow showers across our region Saturday night. High pressure will return Sunday with milder weather. High pressure will yield a chilly morning, followed by a milder afternoon Saturday, though temperatures will average a few degrees below normal across NY and PA. On Sunday, a ridge will build through the Central U.
251 PM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The flat upper level ridge will begin to shift eastward through Sunday, with just a slight increase in westerly flow. Warm and dry weather will start the forecast period, but cooler and a little bit of moisture is on the horizon.
Otherwise, high pressure centered south of the region will result in a continuation of dry conditions with a warming trend. A slow moving cold front will bring an increasing chance of rain for mid to late week.
Overnight lows will generally be warmer for all locations Sunday morning but especially under the influence of cloud cover.
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The theme for the remainder of the weekend will be the continued dry weather along with moderating temperatures with a surface anticyclone anchored over the southeastern CONUS. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than those observed early this morning.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 38 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 37 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 36 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 33 65 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Overnight temps tonight not as cold, but still cooler than normal in the low to mid 50s. Remaining the warmest along the Martin County coast where onshore winds keep temps in the low 60s. High pressure remains in control of the weather across the Southeast, maintaining dry and pleasant conditions to finish the weekend. Afternoon temps warm into the low to mid 70s, with cool temps again Sunday night in the 50s across most of the area.
High pressure returns Sunday with mild and dry weather. This weak low pressure system from the north moves into the region this evening brining some scattered rain/snow showers to the area tonight. Sunday will be sunny and mild as a ridge builds across the Central US and high pressure moves into our region. With a cooler air mass still overhead as well as mostly clear skies, temperatures will fall back into the 30s Sunday night.
A mid-level ridge will be undercut by a modest transiting short wave trough. Additionally, the combination of above normal astronomical high tides and modest waves approaching the Lower Texas Coast from the east-southeast could produce overwash and runup at the beaches of South Padre Island and Boca Chica Beach Sunday around high tide at 1:41 PM.
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Upper low will move into the region this afternoon/evening with the potential of producing virga showers under which strong downburst activity could occur. An upper- level trough, which is over the desert southwest at 3 AM, will move over the area this evening, with the main energy remaining mostly to our south. The lift from the trough, along with CAPE ~400 J/kg could provide enough lift to promote shower and thunderstorm development over the southern South Plains. The lower atmosphere will be too dry for rain to reach the ground except in the far southwestern South Plains where a few hundredths of an inch could be possible. Gkendrick The weak upper level trough will slowly edge east away from the area Sunday with northwest flow aloft to follow.
The lower airmass was dry, creating elevated fire weather conditions. A mean upper level ridge will remain in place across the nations midsection the rest of the weekend, suppressing the airmass and keeping zero precipitation chances. No frost or freeze is expected tonight since surface moisture increases and southerly breezes keep the airmass well mixed and warmer.
Overnight lows should dip down into the lower to mid 50s inland and hover around 60 on the coast.
Temperatures held down a bit, ranging from the lower to upper 60s, with dewpoints in the mid 30s to near 40. While most of the rain is evaporating due to the lower dewpoints (drier air), a few reports of very light drizzle or light rain scattered about this afternoon.
Weak ridging will set in tonight as the upper low, currently churning across New Mexico, opens up into a wave and begins to slide across Central Texas throughout the day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today as we warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Given the trends of recent days for overachieving in the mixing department leading to stronger winds than most model output, have hedged toward the high side of NBM wind guidance in our far west where southerly flow develops this afternoon. Even with the lesser mixing farther east, have continued trend toward warmer (70s to lower 80s) and drier than average model guidance, which yields minimum RH values below 20 percent across most of the forecast area.
Mid-Atlantic based high pressure is still in control at the surface with modest mid-level ridging edging east and giving way to a weak, mid-level short wave trough moving into northern Texas. /issued 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A nearly zonal mid-level flow is expected over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period with weak 500 mb ridging over Mexico and closed 500 mb low pressure lingering over north Texas. Additionally, the combination of above normal astronomical high tides and rough swells approaching the Lower Texas Coast from the east-southeast will create minor flooding at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach today.
249 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Tonight and Sunday: Winds are diminishing quickly this afternoon as a weak low pressure area moves into central WI. Northeasterly winds behind this system will accelerate down the lake quicker than inland areas as a weak back door cold front overnight. That onshore wind component will keep lakeshore areas cooler with highs only in the upper 50s. Inland areas will get a little warmer than they got today with highs in the lower 70s. Dewpoints have risen into the lower 30s today and I expect a similar situation for Sunday with no more moisture advection.
Dewpoints will be close to freezing so we will likely see some frost again tonight.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight which should keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, especially across the north. East or southeast winds will keep things a little cooler with a little higher humidity values across the Fox Valley east to the lake, but will still be at the elevated level due to the dry conditions. Sunday Night Through Saturday The weather pattern will be unsettled for the upcoming week, as several low pressure systems track through the area.
Otherwise, skies should start to scatter out late in the day Sunday with high temperatures climbing into the low/mid 70s.
The southerly flow will help boost highs into the lower 80s for Easter Sunday.
The upper level ridge has shifted eastward with an increasing southwest flow aloft spreading high level clouds across the region.
A dry northwest upper flow pattern will also persist through Sunday between an mid/upper trough east of the region and mid/upper ridging to the west. The dry mid-level air mass will mix down to the surface this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon, resulting in surface relative humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20s most inland areas which could result in an increase in localized wildfire development. Highs on Sunday will trend warmer in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees near the immediate coast.
141 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will shift to the east today offering sunny weather conditions.
For now, we will only mention VCSH as models disagree on where the higher coverage of showers and storms will reside. A weak upper level impulse moving into and over Central Texas ahead of an upper level trough moving over Southern New Mexico will provide the forcing for isolated to widely scattered showers this morning into early and mid afternoon. The upper level trough will move over Western and Central Texas forcing another round of isolated to widely scattered showers overnight into Sunday.
The low clouds should inhibit too much radiational cooling, resulting in somewhat mild lows in the low to mid 50s.
243 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
153 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Sunshine abounds over the entire Midwest today, as two high pressure areas noted by dry air are dominating the region. The slightly warmer temperatures Sunday are mainly due to increased afternoon mixing with the south winds.
A late morning ASCAT sampled 25 to 30 knot winds across the Straits, with many marine stations sampling wind gusts in the low 30s over the past 12 hours. The high pressure system over the Carolinas will slide slowly south over the next several days, losing some of its fortitude as it nears the Keys. Breezes will diminish slowly and veer to the east as the high nears, although because of the cooler water temperatures, the veering and diminishing of the breezes will be slower than expected.
A broad upper-level ridge continues to encompass the region. Ahead of the trough southerly winds around 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph were common. A mild and quiet night is expected as we quickly transition between the exiting trough and the arrival of another trough to the west. At this time it appears the lowest humidity (low teens) and warmest temperatures are favored across the southwest while the strongest winds are favored across the central and northeast. The broad upper-level ridge will slowly flatten through Sunday night as embedded waves move within flow aloft.
242 PM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A strong ridge still in place will bring mostly clear skies this evening into tonight with temperatures cooling to the 40s.
337 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Early day mid level cloud marking a weak warm frontal passage steadily vacating the region this afternoon, offering a high degree of insolation to finish the diurnal heating cycle. Weak height falls within prevailing mid level northwest flow will ease a frontal boundary back into the region tonight, this process commencing immediately downstream of slowly building high pressure. Deep layer dry and stable conditions to finish the weekend period, ensuring full insolation potential within existing low level ridging. A veering/onshore component to the low level flow means significantly colder conditions for locations immediately downstream of lake Huron/Saginaw Bay Sunday.
1137 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 H5 ridging continues to dominate the weather across western and central WY through the short term period. H7 temps remain in the +2 to +5 range across the state today, which will translate to high temperatures in the 70s for the lower elevations and higher elevation in the 50s. Minimal change noted for Easter Sunday as well, with H7 temps holding at 3 to 6 degrees and highs in the 70s for the lower elevations and the 50s for higher elevations.
Afternoon heating has begun and has been pretty stout thus far wide areawide temperatures already in the low to mid 50s with highs in the low to mid 60s still expected. Expecting temps to be slightly warmer today with highs in the low to mid 60s with lows tonight in the upper 30s. Main concern for this forecast period will once again be fire weather with Min RH values in the low to mid 20s across the entire CWA in combination with continued dry fuels.
Per WV imagery, this is associated with an upper-level jet streak atop deep, broad ridging over much of the CONUS. Sfc analysis and observations indicate that a low-level trof continues to cross the area from NW- SE, with breezy southwest winds ahead of the trof and gusty northwest winds in its wake. On either side of the trof axis, critical fire weather conditions have developed this aftn, with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s and relative humidity values in the low teens to upper single digits. Winds should diminish this evening as sfc trof stalls and weakens over srn SD, though breezy conditions could persist across far s cntrl SD thru approx 03-06z, particularly along ridgetops. A second sfc trof crosses the area tomorrow, with a low center developing in the vicinity of wrn SD by tomorrow evening.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning slowly eastward through the Intermountain West. Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Sunday as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains during the period. Prevailing low level southerlies will reinforce a warmer air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas tonight. Lee side troughing will reorganize in eastern Colorado early Sunday and deepen throughout the day resulting in strengthening southerlies across southwest and central Kansas, drawing warmer air into the area.
Ridging over the nations mid section will expand across the Upper Great Lakes Easter Sunday and Sunday night.
343 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather will prevail through the period, as high pressure resides across the region.
1158 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. Dry weather should prevail under high pressure, with sfc srly wind aiding in gradual temperature moderation toward, yet just shy of average high temperature values. Broadening high pressure should support yet another dry day on Sunday, with insolation lending to above average temperature values.
Weak ridging is in place with light and variable winds across most of the area.
1148 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front located in western MN, with winds east of the front still out of the south as winds behind the front weaken and shift northwest.