Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front was just about to enter the JKL forecast area from the northwest at 6 AM. The cold front will pass through this morning, and rain will taper off as high pressure builds in from the west. Gusty west winds will carry in much cooler and drier air. The high will move over our area late tonight, allowing winds to diminish. This will set us up for cold temperatures, with frost and/or freezing temperatures expected by dawn.
High pressure will bring warmer afternoon temperatures and clearing skies across northern Arizona through Monday.
Monday, Warmer, Windy, then a Cold Front Sweeps in: A trough approaching from the west will bring tighter surface pressure gradients to the Plains Monday, resulting in gusty southerly winds during the day. Then that same trough should drive a strong cold front through Iowa and Nebraska Monday evening.
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 12Z TAF pd, as dry air filters into the region in the wake of a cold front. Positively-tilted trof axis will continue to move across our region today, ushering in high pressure at the sfc, a cooler and drier airmass, and clearing skies. Gusty winds in the wake of the cold front will be prevalent across the region today, but should remain just below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Wind speeds will quickly diminish around sunset, as the center of high pressure settles in over our region. Clear skies and calm winds will allow for temps to dip in to the lower 40s areawide. By Monday night, quiet weather will remain in place under WSWly flow, still influenced by the cold front moving through the region this morning.
Northerly winds pick up late tonight as a cold front approaches. After a few periods of mild spring time weather, an upper level trough develops over the Pacific North West. As the local upper ridge flattens, the trough moves inland to British Columbia and Washington state. As a result, a cold frontal boundary rapidly approaches and is expected to arrive by late Sunday night. The main impact of the front and associated upper trough will be cooler and windier weather Monday. North winds may gust 25 to 35 mph over the exposed portions of the coast and adjacent ridgetops.
With ample instability ahead of the approaching cold front and strong forcing aloft, thunderstorms will continue to be possible, with the strongest activity just to our north. As the cold front moves through, a few lingering showers are expected, but the atmosphere will stabilize quickly as cold air advection ensues. Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area by Monday morning with lows in the mid 30s north to 40s elsewhere. A warm front will lift northward Monday night with a chance of showers across the southern counties.
/Issued 423 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ Very mild conditions exist across the area early this morning ahead of a strong cold front that will cross north and central GA today. Greatest severe potential will be across northwest/north-central GA (west of a Blue Ridge to Jasper to Cartersville to Cedartown line) this morning, where 50-60kts low lvl (0-3KM) winds/bulk shear coupled with MLCAPE up to 500 J/KG will exist to support damaging wind threat in any bowing line segments. Much drier/cooler air will filter across the area tonight with low temps in the 30s/40s (far cry from the 60s/70s we are seeing this morning). 83 At the start of the period GA is under a weak ridge aloft with the remnants of a surface front along the Gulf Coast.
/Issued 400 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ Upper level trof axis currently moving eastward across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas had pushed the remaining cloud cover eastward and out of the CWA early this morning. northerly flow transporting a cooler and drier airmass was common across the region with temps in the 40s and 50s over the CWA. These cooler conditions underneath mostly clear skies are expected to continue for today with forecast highs in the 60s for most locations. With high pressure to the east and a low pressure system dropping southeast over the Western CONUS.
/issued 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ Wx map shows cold front advancing across the ArkLaTex, just past Shreveport, Longview and Nacogdoches. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the lower 70s will likely persist until the frontal passage later this morning, with temperatures dropping into the 60s for the remainder of the morning and afternoon. The threat appears to be very limited to the thunderstorms along the advancing cold front within the next couple of hours, but with most of the energy lifting north and east, the risk will be diminishing toward daybreak. The cold front and higher precipitation chances will continue to advance southward during the day Monday, with the precipitation ending by this afternoon and should remain this way through Monday with cooler temperatures.
Sfc analysis shows the Atlc ridge axis across central FL which will produce a deep S/SW flow today. So max temps will be warmer at the coast, especially Volusia. With SW winds increasing near 15 mph with some higher gusts and temps in the lower 90s, min RH values will get very close to 35 percent. A surge of north winds near 20 knots will enter the far northern waters late tonight behind a cold front and spread quickly southward during the morning Mon.
634 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 (Today and tonight) The mid-level trough will be moving east away from the area today, with flow aloft becoming more zonal tonight.
638 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Surface analysis shows ridge pushing eastward across the state with return southerly flow setting up across the west while associated clouds spill into the region. Strengthening southwest flow ahead of a deepening trough approaching from the west will result in breezy southwest winds and minimum relative humidity values in the 20-25% range mainly south and west of the Missouri River. Models have the strong cold front near northwest ND around 12Z, extending southwestward.
This will help surface winds to shift to the west and some downslope component may lead to temperatures warming into the lower 60s across eastern KS and western MO. For Monday, a lee trough develops over the western KS/NE. The high pressure area that affected our weather on Monday will have moved into the Southeast.
Some lingering light showers are present early this morning across far south-central Missouri behind a cold front that moved through the area yesterday. Breezy northwest winds behind the front are also ushering a cooler air mass into the region, dropping morning low temperatures into the upper 30s over western Missouri to mid 40s over far south-central Missouri. The cooler, drier air mass will be very noticeable today, with high temperatures only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s area-wide, which is about 15 to 20 degrees colder than yesterday's highs. Winds will then turn southerly this evening and tonight as the center of the high pressure passes just to our south, with lows once again in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Skies clear tonight as high pressure builds in with overnight lows 25 to 30 expected. Sfc cold front now entering nw zones at this hour with lingering showers along pre-frontal trough. Warm advection continues into Tue ahead of nearing cold frontal zone. GFS indication of shallower/more progressive upper trough across the lakes discounted with deeper GEM/EC suggestion preferred and which holds onto showers chances over ern zones Wed morning. Regardless of solution, another burst of even more intense cold advection follows into Thu as upper trough amplifies considerably through New England and of which promises a very chilly Wed-Thu period with well below normal temps. The cold front had moved east of both TAF sites with very little post frontal IFR clouds or visibilities.
High pressure is forecast to keep the weather quiet for another day, even as a weak cold front, moves towards the area. As this process unfolds, the deep layer ridge over the local area will gradually be forced southeastward. At the same time, a cold front will move through the Southeast today, through north Florida tonight, and stall across central Florida on Monday. Highs will continue to flirt with records today, but should lower a bit on Monday as the ridge breaks down.
High pressure will settle into the region late today and winds will relax after sunset. Today Through Monday Night A cold front was currently sweeping through the state early this morning with only a few showers and thunderstorms observed over extreme SErn AR. Gusty N/NW winds will be noted as high pressure moves into the region today. This will be fairly progressive with the ridge shifting Ewrd by Monday and deamplifying. At the surface, high pressure will move into the TN Valley with winds switching to the S on Monday.
The surface warm front appears to be located close to CHA at the moment, with a slight northward push possible before the line arrives. Some showers may linger behind it until the 850 mb front/trough axis pushes through in the early afternoon. Clouds should clear out in the evening with the midlevel trough passage. This clearing along with building high pressure allowing winds to drop off to nearly calm after midnight will result in low temps tonight in the 30s for most of the Valley, and 20s in the mountains.
However, lingering mid level clouds may keep temperatures a little warmer than forecast.
These winds will keep temps warmer tonight across the west/northwest as well, with most of the area in the 40s. These lower level south/southwest winds will also bring in warmer air from the higher terrain to our west. Afternoon temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today.
Skies clear tonight as high pressure builds in with overnight lows 27 to 30 expected.
251 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 The tail end of an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes this morning will sag across the area today.
233 PM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 20z surface analysis had warm front from SK into central SD with 3-5mb/3hr pressure falls along it. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge peaking over the northern Plains with upper trough carving out over BC. Effect of this upstream trough the main forecast concern. Tonight, upper trough races into the northern Rockies pushing a cold front into MT. 40-55kt 850-700mb winds will promote high wind over much of the area with the initial cold front passage and then again in the late afternoon/early evening as a secondary push of cold air/pressures rises combine with steep low level lapse rates. Moisture will be scant so pops limited to the higher terrain of northeast WY/Black Hills where mid-level moisture/forcing combines.
136 PM PDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A dry cold front will drop into the region bringing breezy southwest winds through tonight, switching to the north on Monday.
248 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front is moving across the state this afternoon.
Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area by Monday morning with lows in the mid 30s north to 40s elsewhere. A warm front will lift northward Monday night with a chance of showers across the southern counties.
High Pressure now filling into the region behind cold front. Temperatures will be much colder tonight, with freezing temps in the mountains--Wind Chill reading in the teens in the higher elevations of the Smokies.
246 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Sharp upper level trough is swinging overhead this afternoon and will continue off to the east later this evening and overnight. Winds will diminish this evening, dropping off very quickly after 00z as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure overnight will bring calm winds and clear skies, with chilly conditions early Monday. Expect frost with lows in the low to mid 30s.
A ridge of high of high pressure will move across and to the east of the area overnight. Our current forecast is higher than some of the consensus data and in the higher end of model guidance for wind gusts and still coming up overall short of criteria.
321 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure centered over the Red River Valley this afternoon brought northerly winds and cooler temperatures to the region. Most locations were topping out about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will gradually shift to the south tonight as the high pressure center shifts eastward into Tennessee. The pressure gradient tightens up significantly on Monday as low pressure deepens over the central Plains. Combined with the higher winds, opted to keep the Red Flag Watch going and expanded another row of counties eastward.
1211 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 (Today and tonight) The mid-level trough will be moving east away from the area today, with flow aloft becoming more zonal tonight.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure is currently sprawled out across most of the southern Plains this afternoon, while a cold front is draped along the Texas Gulf Coast. By tonight, high pressure will shift eastward, which should allow winds to shift out of the southeast. Skies will be clear, allowing low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s as a warmer airmass is advected into the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 80s and are only expected to drop into the mid 70s tonight, so another warm spring night is ahead. An elongated area of high pressure centered over Bermuda is helping our winds remain east to southeast. This area of high pressure will weaken as an area of low pressure ejects off the northeast and pushes it east. Another area of high pressure will build in behind a cold front that will make it Central Florida tomorrow. Aloft, ridging is still dominant over our area and will remain in place until tomorrow as it flattens and moves off to the east.
1041 AM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building over NM with surface lee trough. High pressure will build in from the west today resulting in a warm up and light winds for all but eastern areas where southwest winds develop.
140 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Aviation - Rain and snow expected today with cooler temperatures - Mid week upper trough to bring colder weather - Some model disparity towards the end of the week - Rain and snow expected today with cooler temperatures A cold front is pushing through Western Lower Michigan as of 300am. pushing into the Highway 131 corridor. We are not expecting any impacts given warmer ground and marginal air temperatures in the 30s. Cannot rule out a 2 inch total on the high ground near Tustin and Dighton.
As high pressure translates east and southeast away from the area, low level southerly flow will return from west to east across the area tonight.
However, since the winds just started increasing over the last couple of hours, expect the additional mixing will help bump temps up across central SD late this afternoon and early this evening as the upper ridge builds in. Gusty winds and the waa under the ridge will keep temps relatively mild tonight. A cold front will barrel through on Monday. Winds will be gusting up to 50 mph in most areas with north central SD gusting as high as 65 mph along the ridge tops. Strong subsidence and drying (re: lapse rates) will help mix down very strong winds aloft in an approaching upper trough with a 110kt jet streak.
1144 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will spread across Central PA as a warm front lifts north through the area. A strong cold front moving through this afternoon will create more storms with some gusty winds.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure is currently sprawled out across most of the southern Plains this afternoon, while a cold front is draped along the Texas Gulf Coast. By tonight, high pressure will shift eastward, which should allow winds to shift out of the southeast. Skies will be clear, allowing low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s as a warmer airmass is advected into the region.
Monday: As the area remains under broad sfc ridging/subsidence at the start of the work week, dry air & quiet conditions will remain the norm. With light winds & recent rains, there shouldn't be fire danger issues, but humidity will drop into the low 30% range. /DC/ A deep upper low skirting just north of the Canadian/US border is setting up a trough over the western half of the country by tomorrow night.
This general area also looks poised to experience the highest grassland fire spread rates and a fire weather watch has been issued for accordingly.
120 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers will taper off this evening as low pressure exits east. Showers will continue ahead of an advancing cold front, with a period of drier conditions generally developing after fropa as dry air intrudes from the west. Upper trough passage this evening and cold advection within increasingly NW flow may lead to iso/sct shower development with weak lake enhancement that favors the I-80 corridor and higher terrain. Dry weather is expected Monday as high pressure slides over the region, with abundant insolation.
A cold front is currently stretched from the northwest gulf across far SE LA and into the Great Lakes Region. High pressure is across the plains and is building south and east.
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure centered over the southern and central Plains continued to bring cooler temperatures and clear skies to the region early this afternoon. In fact, compared to this time yesterday, temperatures are averaging around 20 degrees cooler.
1211 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 310 AM CDT A surface cold front has just cleared my northwestern IN counties. In the wake of this front, very breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected today. However, some parts of far northeastern IL and northwestern IN could still yet experience a brief light shower early this morning as the upper trough axis shifts overhead. For our weather this will mean a quick return to warmer weather, but at the expense of some very gusty and dry southerly winds. Temperatures look to warm back into the low to mid 60s for Monday, but the strong southerly winds and dry conditions will be the main story. Also of note is the forecasted minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the low to mid 30 percent range Monday afternoon.
1227 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front pushed through the region last night, ushering in breezy northwesterly winds. The breezy conditions will persist throughout today, as High pressure begins to build back into the Midwest. Temperatures will much cooler than yesterday, with highs only reaching the low 50s. The High pressure system will quickly shift through the area, into the Ohio Valley region for the first part of the new work week.
1053 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front pushed through the region last night, ushering in breezy northwesterly winds. The breezy conditions will persist throughout today, as High pressure begins to build back into the Midwest. Temperatures will much cooler than yesterday, with highs only reaching the low 50s. The High pressure system will quickly shift through the area, into the Ohio Valley region for the first part of the new work week.
This will be ideal conditions for some frost to develop in the cooler post frontal airmass, which sees temps drop to lows in the low to mid 30s. The high shifts east during the day Monday, and southerlies make a return.
Cloud cover will scatter out and winds relax overnight as high pressure settles into the region. Cool overnight/morning temps will transition to some really pleasant wx on Monday with msunny skies, low RH's and temps making their way into the lower 70s.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Most of the forecast challenges occur on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. The ridge passes quickly across the state this evening with warm advection/southeast winds increasing overnight. In fact, the low level flow at around 3kft becomes 45-55kts toward daybreak on Monday from the southwest producing non convective low level wind shear for several hours late tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly this evening with the ridge but are expected to become steady or rise later tonight as surface winds increase from the southeast. Thermal ridging expands across the state on Monday with temperatures rebounding nicely.
324 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A warmup has commenced across our region in rising heights/ridging behind an upper trough exiting east of the MO River. Monday will see even warmer weather ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. A deepening upper trough emerging from the northern Rockies will send a strong cold front south through our region Monday night, bringing an end to our warm temps for a few days.
A cold front will be pushing across southeast GA this evening bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms after 6 pm. Cooler temperatures by morning with lows in the lower 50s north to lower 60s south.
157 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 The upper level trough racing from the midwest to New England and beyond will have little direct impact on our weather.
VFR prevails this period as high pressure moves across the area. Today Through Monday Night A cold front was currently sweeping through the state early this morning with only a few showers and thunderstorms observed over extreme SErn AR. Gusty N/NW winds will be noted as high pressure moves into the region today. This will be fairly progressive with the ridge shifting Ewrd by Monday and deamplifying. At the surface, high pressure will move into the TN Valley with winds switching to the S on Monday.
Winds slacken going into this evening as surface ridging builds in. Calm winds and clear skies under the influence of high pressure will result in chilly temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. Patchy frost may develop on elevated surfaces that fall below freezing. Southwest flow ramps up on Monday, especially over northwest counties as surface ridging moves east.
240 PM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A few clouds overhead as a 500mb shallow trough clips the region to the north, causing gusty winds across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. At this time, the only High Wind Warning is for these wind-prone corridors, but Warnings expand after midnight to include the lower elevations of Albany, Converse and Carbon Counties as the next trough drops out of the Pacific northwest and approaches the region. A very strong and mostly dry cold front will accompany this trough, increasing gradient winds over the aforementioned lower elevations.
A strong cold front and a QLCS line of storms roared across the Tennessee Valley in a WNW-ESE manner overnight, bringing a brief but heavy dose of rain and strong gusty winds.
256 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Definitely cooler conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
For tonight, a High Plains lee trough will continue. However, much of the FA is expected to remain above freezing tonight. Have retained the warmer side of highs with widespread 80s for the FA. A strong cold front will move across the FA Monday late evening.
This, along with some cloud cover, will keep lows much warmer than they were this morning.
A warmer night is expected with lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s. By Monday, upper ridging slides overhead with a strengthening surface pressure gradient developing over the Central Plains between the departing high and a lee trough east of the Rockies.
While cooler/drier air should be deepening from north-to-south, aircraft soundings out of the metro area still show some decent saturation above H8 which should allow for echos/precip seen on radar across the southern half of southeast Texas to reach the ground.
941 AM PDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Ridging aloft and weak offshore flow will continue warming today.