Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for downtown ILM and the lower Cape Fear River through 2 am, as water levels will be exceeding minor flooding thresholds with tonights high tide. High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in typical summer weather. Mins tonight and Wednesday night will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Wednesday in the lower 90s except upper 80s nearer the coast. Moist low levels will be topped by dry air aloft as mid level ridging remains in place. Piedmont trough at the surface will be the focus of isolated convection each afternoon mainly near and west of I-95. High temps in the low 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. Low temps in the low 70s.
Hot interior temperatures will return today and continue through the rest of the work week as high pressure builds in. Otherwise, the marine layer is expected to remain shallow through the work week with a strong low level inversion as the high pressure build over the area. The upper ridge will support hotter temperatures across the interior. High temperatures could potentially be several degrees cooler in areas of thicker smoke, and persistent smoke could allow long wave radiation to escape at night, further reducing the heat risk.
Despite the clear sky, the tropical-like air mass in place will keep dewpoints in the downright oppressive category and subsequently low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
818 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Southerly flow around offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through the remainder of the week.
High pressure centered in the western North Atlantic and the associated ridge that extends across northern Florida are currently supporting moderate easterly breezes, with marine observation platforms ranging from 10 to 15 knots. Looking aloft, an upper level low is situated over the northern Bahamas, but this feature is not being reflected at the surface so no impacts are expected from this. Temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
500 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Upper air analysis shows a strong upper low across central Canada, with cyclonic flow across the Dakotas. Cooler air will filter into western SD later tonight, but. warmer air advection will overtake tomorrow morning. The next weak front will slide in Wednesday night, and this time the cooler air will stick around a little longer.
Deep, light, easterly flow continues with high pressure ridging located to the north. Mid level ridge will be anchored across most of the Southeast and the low-level Atlantic ridge axis extending north of the local area, stretching across SE GA and AL. With lower available moisture, will keep rain chances to around 40% with the highest chances across the interior. Based on recent trends across the interior and warmer than expected highs, have bumped values just a tad higher than guidance, approaching the mid 90s.
Upper air analysis shows a strong upper low across central Canada, with cyclonic flow across the Dakotas. Cooler air will filter into western SD later tonight, but. warmer air advection will overtake tomorrow morning. The next weak front will slide in Wednesday night, and this time the cooler air will stick around a little longer.
629 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 For the 11/00Z TAF update, VFR remains as the predominant flight condition with only one exception as high pressure continues to linger across our airspace through the period. A flat ridge will remain in place from the Southern Plains into the SE CONUS, resulting in hot and humid conditions again on Wednesday. Could see some slight seabreeze influence on the southern flank of the ridge again, which could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm south of Interstate 20, with better chances south of the US Highway 84 corridor.
A weak inverted 500 mb trough approaching the region from the western Gulf of Mex may start increasing the cld cover late in the upcoming TAF period. An inverted trough now crawling west through the central Gulf of Mexico will increase PWATs early Wednesday morning, with the best chance of rain Wednesday being over Gulf waters.
Weak flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday with an upper level trough off to the northeast. Could see a few high based showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain south of I-70 and over the eastern plains.
509 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Currently - A surface through mid level Atlantic ridge extending westward across northern Florida and the Gulf coast, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. There is a weak upper level low migrating westward into Florida, but has little reach into the mid levels, much less the lower levels. Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six continues to track west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, remains disorganized and is currently beginning to move across Puerto Rico. Forecast - The previously mentioned ridge will remain fairly stationary through the remainder of the week.
708 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Secondary cold front/500 mb short wave trough moving east- southeast from Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba and North Dakota this early evening. Even with clouds and some precip, the cold front should bring enough CAA to drop lows into the 50s, with a few 60s near the SD border. Northwesterly flow aloft, induced by a longwave trough moving eastward over the Canadian prairies, will be the name of the game through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A secondary front will drop trough the CWA tonight dropping dew points into the upper 40s and 50s.
/issued 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021/ For the 11/00Z TAF update, VFR remains as the predominant flight condition with only one exception as high pressure continues to linger across our airspace through the period.
The ArkLaMiss will remain on the westward periphery of an expansive W Atlantic subtropical ridge. Diurnal showers & storms remain possible Wednesday, with isolated- scattered rain & storm coverage along & SE of the Natchez Trace corridor, with some of the highest chances in the Pine Belt and I-59 corridor. The overall pattern driving this is a mid/upper level ridge currently over the region. Look for this ridge to break down by Thu/Fri as a much larger trough is carved out over the Great Lakes and NE.
108 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 A mostly clear sky was in place this morning, and given very high boundary layer moisture and dew points in the lower to middle 70s, areas of fog may still yet develop. The higher plateau areas in our eastern counties will certainly benefit from the higher elevation and will not be as hot today. Areal coverage is still looking fairly limited due to subsidence beneath the mid-upper level ridge.
Upper level analysis shows trough moving east of the region, with northwest flow now developing over the area as high pressure moves into the Pacific NW. Mainly dry conditions can be expected through at least the weekend, as the ridge slowly moves east across the western US and eventually into the Plains.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 92 73 91 / 30 20 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 93 73 92 / 30 20 40 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 92 72 92 / 30 20 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 69 91 69 91 / 40 30 40 30 50.
Expect wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph to continue through around 8pm, with winds weakening and turning northerly as a weak and dry cold front drops into the area. Another cold front is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Tomorrows cold front is expected to be dry as well. Chambers Cooler conditions and easterly winds build into the area behind the Wednesday night cold front.
207 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to take hold of the Great Basin today, resulting in dry conditions for the majority of the forecast area.
Organized convection continues along the Lower Colorado River this evening, with large areas of cloud cover and rain-cooled air over western/central Arizona. However, some synoptic forcing does exist due to an inverted trough that will move farther west tomorrow.
250 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
A weak cold front currently extends from near Valentine through Alliance and Scottsbluff. For tonight, the next cold front will advance into northern NE by daybreak. A deep closed low will be centered over Hudson Bay Canada. Much cooler temperatures will move into North Dakota and Minnesota overnight indicated by 850mb temperatures from 5 to 10C.
1029 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will build back over the region with drier and warmer weather this week.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ The weather pattern will remain largely unchanged across North and Central Texas through Wednesday night with ridging aloft and moist southerly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere.
A wave in the NW flow aloft will bring a cold front south this afternoon with gusty NW winds that will continue into this evening.
327 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 High pressure will settle in over the region today behind an exiting frontal boundary.
High temperatures will be near normal, in the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s and overnight lows in low-mid 70s. The region remains positioned along the western periphery of a deep layered ridge over the western Atlantic. Overnight lows should generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
Focus is again on potential severe weather later today as yet another short wave trough passes through broad cyclonic upper flow to the north. Good news progressive nature of this system will move boundary and any storms out of the area early this evening leading to cooler and drier air advecting in. Great stretch of quieter weather ahead as broad upper trough establishes itself over Great Lakes pushing boundary further south and keeping us in cooler, drier northwest flow.
An upper level ridge will continue to keep us dry and hot this afternoon. North central and southeast Oklahoma are expected to see the highest heat indices, ranging from 104 to 107 degrees.
The primary focus will be around the higher terrain.
This morning, light rain showers were exiting the southern James River Valley as a cold front continued moving southeast out of the forecast area. Aloft, northwest flow persisted as troughing was centered over the Northern Plains, downstream of ridging extending off the coast of British Columbia. Yet another cold front will be entering the northwest this afternoon, although chances of precipitation with the frontal passage are quite low, with only a slight chance of rain showers around the Turtle Mountains.
1250 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
However, a cold front is currently sitting along northern border of our CWA which could still help overcome the mostly stable atmosphere and allow a few more showers/marginal storms develop later this afternoon and evening.
Broad high pressure over the southeastern United States will maintain light southeast winds this evening, becoming moderate later this morning and afternoon. A weak inverted 500 mb trough approaching the region from the western Gulf of Mex may start increasing the cld cover late in the upcoming TAF period. An inverted trough now crawling west through the central Gulf of Mexico will increase PWATs early Wednesday morning, with the best chance of rain Wednesday being over Gulf waters.
/Issued 1114 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021/ /Through Wednesday Night/ The weather pattern will remain largely unchanged across North and Central Texas through Wednesday night with ridging aloft and moist southerly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere.
243 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Broad upper level ridge over the region will continue the reign of hot and dry weather for the next couple of days.
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Broad upper level ridge will remain anchored over the southern CONUS the rest of the week.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s and overnight lows in low-mid 70s. The region remains positioned along the western periphery of the deep layered Bermuda ridge. There remains limiting factor, warm air aloft in the east under the ridge. Perhaps a weak short wave may be a trigger on the west periphery of ridge. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Continued muggy overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Early this morning: the first in a series of cold front is activity passing over our CWA with light showers along this front moving east- southeast across our CWA. Today-Tonight: A mild day is in stored with the morning cold front allowing for further cooling of the air mass and while good clearing/mixing should allow for decent diurnal warming we should see seasonably mild highs today in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
High pressure has started to assert itself over the region and this is going to continue to drive up temperatures/dew points/Heat Indicies and drive down convection.
944 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will build back over the region with drier and warmer weather this week.
316 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Another Round of Strong/Severe storms this evening - Fair and cooler for the weekend - Another Round of Strong/Severe storms this evening We are in a Enhanced Risk for severe weather this evening as an MCS is expected to move into northern Lower Michigan in the late afternoon and move southeast into a juicy airmass with CAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg and deep layer shear values around 30 knots.
911 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 High pressure from the Atlantic extending west-southwest across the northern Florida peninsula is supporting clear skies and light east winds across the forecast area early this morning. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain east southeast winds around 10 knots with slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Heat continues to be the primary concern through the short- term forecast with a chance of severe weather on Thursday and cooler weather for the weekend. Broad cyclonic flow over Upper Plains is regularly pushing drier and cooler air across the Dakotas and over the northern portions of the CWA. This is just another reason for the slightly cooler forecast. Have lowered forecast temps and heat indices for Thursday as well due to yet another cold front. Thursday night's chance of showers and storms will be tied to the interaction of that cold front and the LLJ.
This is where the highest coverage of storms is expected with 40-50 POPs.
319 AM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Another warm, dry and breezy day can be expected today, ahead of a cold front dropping in from the north this evening. Behind the cold front, a few showers are possible over northeastern areas overnight. Cooler conditions and easterly winds can be expected on Thursday in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
951 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
Dewpoints are forecast to be a couple degrees lower than yesterday, but still in the mid/upper 70s, which will combine with highs in the lower 90s for peak heat indices at 105-110F. Better conditions for convective initiation will take place to our northwest during the late afternoon to early evening, in proximity to a pre-frontal trof pressing southeast across eastern IA and northern IL. The cold front begins to make its move south into the region Thursday night, and this provides the next decent shot at strong to severe convection, noted on SPC Day 2 marginal risk.
As the week progresses, the ridge of high pressure will shift westward. By this weekend, the ridge is forecast to be at its strongest, which may lead to warmer temperatures than we are seeing now.
Upper ridging will continue to break down and flatten across the area over the next couple of days.
803 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
Besides the two tropical storms south and west of Mexico, a large upper level trough encompasses all of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands with a frontal boundary further east that extends north towards Alaska. This large trough is bringing much warmer air from the subtropics and helping to strengthen the downstream upper level ridge of high pressure that is very prominent over the northeast Pacific extending over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Tonight, a dry and weak cold front, originating from Alberta, Canada, will traverse west across Glacier National Park and then stall and weaken by daybreak Thursday.
400 AM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 For the short term period, warm and dry weather will transition to cooler and wetter weather as a frontal boundary moves into the area Thursday. The combination of dewpoints in the 30's and 40's and temperatures in the 90's will lead to relative humidity values near and west of the Colorado border dropping into the low to mid teens. There could be a few showers and storms in West Central Kansas where an area of convergence and instability sets up over the higher dewpoints during the afternoon. Thursday night on gets a bit more uncertain as guidance suggests the front will stall into a stationary front or retrograde into a warm front.
421 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 For today and tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure will begin reorganizing to the west and northwest of the region. A weak upper level low pressure system meandering around the area through tonight coupled with adequate moisture, daytime heating and attendant atmospheric instability could result in the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight, mainly across western and southern sections of the combined OK and TX Panhandles. For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to continue reorganizing over the Intermountain West. An inverted upper level trof or mid level weakness becomes apparent across the southern high plains resulting from the ridge of high pressure to the northwest and a second ridge of high pressure over the southeast states.
Upper ridging will continue to be the dominant weather feature. As has been the case the last few days, the highest dewpoints will be clustered around the Delta region, and thus, we're expecting the highest HX values in those locations. And, interestingly enough, the models have come back a degree or so cooler.
915 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Mostly clear skies this morning will allow in an abundance of heating with dew points in the low to mid 70s, setting the stage for dangerous heat. High temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid to upper 90s as dew points mix only to the low 70s. A weakness in the upper level ridge aloft has led to isolated showers and storms to the east of the TN Valley this morning.
Highs today will be in the lower 90s, except near 90 at the beaches. High pressure ridge will extend across the region from a center to the northeast this period.
515 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
/Issued 243 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ Broad upper level ridge over the region will continue the reign of hot and dry weather for the next couple of days.
Ridging and very weak flow aloft will be present over the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, and a broad trough and rapid flow will be over the north central and northeast CONUS.
Remember 3 weeks ago when the high was well north of us and we were wide open to the strong inverted trough that pushed straight in from the east? It's starting to look that way again for this weekend.
A weak cold front currently extends from near Valentine through Alliance and Scottsbluff. For tonight, the next cold front will advance into northern NE by daybreak. A deep closed low will be centered over Hudson Bay Canada. Much cooler temperatures will move into North Dakota and Minnesota overnight indicated by 850mb temperatures from 5 to 10C. On Thursday, some of the cooler air will drop highs into the mid and upper 80s north, while the southwest again reaching 90 to 95.
A mostly clear sky was in place this morning, and given very high boundary layer moisture and dew points in the lower to middle 70s, areas of fog may still yet develop. The higher plateau areas in our eastern counties will certainly benefit from the higher elevation and will not be as hot today. Areal coverage is still looking fairly limited due to subsidence beneath the mid-upper level ridge.
337 AM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift this afternoon, but it is not expected to prevent high temperatures from rising about 5 to 7 degrees over yesterday's readings for most locations. A general dry northwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Rockies as upper level ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest. Elevated H850 - H700 winds have resulted periods of gusty overnight west to northwest surface winds over ridge tops and even some lower elevations/valleys along the Rocky Mountain Front. Highs today will be about 5 to 7 degrees warmer for most locations south of the Hi-Line despite an expected cold frontal passage. Some cooler air in the wake of the front will bring a temporary dip in temperatures for Thursday, mostly over the plains.
Latest high-res guidance supports scattered showers moving into the north central and northeast this afternoon as the cold front crosses the International Border. This morning, light rain showers were exiting the southern James River Valley as a cold front continued moving southeast out of the forecast area. Aloft, northwest flow persisted as troughing was centered over the Northern Plains, downstream of ridging extending off the coast of British Columbia. Yet another cold front will be entering the northwest this afternoon, although chances of precipitation with the frontal passage are quite low, with only a slight chance of rain showers around the Turtle Mountains.
A weak inverted upper level trough axis was located near the Texas coast early this morning. The weak trough will continue west today and tonight through South Texas, beneath the flat subtropical ridge to the north.
Broad high pressure over the southeastern United States will maintain light southeast winds this morning, increasing and becoming moderate later this morning and afternoon. /issued 343 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Persistent high pressure at lower and middle levels of the atmosphere centered over the southeastern United States will favor moderate to breezy southeast winds at times both today and Thursday. The approach of inverted troughing over the western Gulf as well as persistent southeasterly flow will help to increase precipitable water over our area later this morning and afternoon, but the best chances for rain look to remain offshore for today. A similar setup will occur on Thursday as weak inverted troughing remains over the western Gulf, which may work with the sea breeze to kick up a few showers across inland areas.
These clouds are associated with the tail end of a trough of low pressure moving through the northern high plains.