Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect SHRA and TSRA to increase in coverage later this afternoon, with ECP, DHN and VLD seeing the highest chances for activity this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the low-mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
636 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
This high will slowly drift to the east and weaken through this week. In the middle to upper levels, a trough/low will move west over the Keys during the next few days as it weakens. Temperatures will also swing from the low 80s to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees every day, with the exception of any location receiving the cooling effects of a good rain shower.
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Chances for rain showers will diminish gradually this evening as a low pressure system drifts eastward. The upper level trof and associated upper level disturbance that merged over the area last night and produced over 8 inches of rain at South Bend was moving into lower Michigan. Additional showers are possible along with a rumble of thunder as a diffuse weak cold front moves southeast into northern Indiana this afternoon. An upper level trof will move into the region this weekend and should bring another round of showers and storms to the forecast area.
146 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will prevail through mid week as a Bermuda ridge keeps a hold of the area.
647 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure over southern Lake Huron will move to southern Quebec overnight and should reach Maine by Wednesday morning. A cold front trailing the low will drop southeast across the area through the evening.
534 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. along and ahead of the real cold front. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. along and ahead of the real cold front. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
332 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 The weak upper level high pressure ridge extending over the area from a broader ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean will continue through Wednesday. We would expect a more successful cumulus cloud layer Wednesday afternoon owing to a little more low level moisture, but otherwise will confine the low thunderstorm chances again to the southeast corner.
1236 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 An area of low pressure was located in southeast North Dakota this afternoon with a frontal boundary extending east southeast through Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. The Northland was in a cooler easterly flow north of the boundary with stronger winds occurring around Lake Superior. On Thursday, the warm front will move east and north and extend from northeast North Dakota southeast into northwest Wisconsin Thursday afternoon then it will continue to push northeast. Highs Thursday will range from the lower seventies to lower eighties, but be cooler around Lake Superior as we expect the easterly flow to continue.
Upper trof has settled in over the High Plains, with an amplifying ridge along the East Coast.
356 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. If this occurs, temperatures may be a little tricky today, but will bank on the combination of enough sun later today and the southwesterly flow to help push temperatures into the lower to mid 80s again this afternoon. We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place across the southeastern United States. It looks like the ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through the day on Friday.
226 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. However, the winds are very light and the air still fairly dry with 40-sumpin' dewpoints in the higher elevations and only l-m50s elsewhere. The highest POPs will be over the Alleghenies. The low shear environment will mean there will be little organization to the showers/storms.
Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure in place over the Carolinas and poorly organized low pressure over Kansas.
These storms form as an upper level low moves into the Four Corners Region with an associated 80+ knot 250mb jet extending into southwest Kansas. Moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also be abundant with steep lapse rates found as you go up into the mid parts of the atmosphere. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 80s across west central Kansas to around 90 degrees along the KS/OK border. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the KS/CO border to lower 60s across south central Kansas. As this upper level system crosses western Kansas during the day the models indicate that the dry line will move further east into central Kansas and a cold front will drop south into western Kansas by late day.
500 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery revealed an upper trof over the Desert SW with a downstream ridge over the western Gulf. At the surface, high pressure was centered just east of the Carolinas, with a trof of low pressure over the Plains states. The upper ridge that has shielded the region from much in the way of convection is progged to steadily erode as the upper trof out west continues east and then northeast toward the Plains states.
350 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 A broad upper ridge should persist over the southeast during the short term. with ridging dominating the remainder of the area. Upper low and surface reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/ Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country.
This will occur as an upper level trough ejects out into the central High Plains. This will provide the forcing for thunderstorms to develop along a dryline out across western Kansas and then move east-northeastward along a warm front which be progged to extend near the KS/NE border. The upper level trough will move into the central Plains on Friday and weaken as it does. Consequently, with morning storms helping to limit instability and a weakening trough, severe potential should be minimized.
358 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week.
328 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 A weak cold front will approach from the north today but should not make it into the area before stalling. The front will move north as a warm front on Thursday as high pressure tries to build back in from the east Thursday into the weekend.
236 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 An upper level ridge of warm air will remain in place as weaker low level systems pass by the area.
Water vapor imagery showing longwave trough across the northern Rockies to a closed off low in southern California. Friday shows a closed upper low tracking into southwestern Nebraska from central Colorado. freezing levels will be quite low.
For now, PROB30 groups have been included for those terminals where confidence is the highest.
However, as the low center over southern California shifts to central Arizona moisture will increase over the south while divergence/difluence aloft provides lift and the potential for nocturnal showers toward sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Thursday as the low pressure system shifts to near the Pikes Peak region late in the day. Do not anticipate more than wet roads in the high passes so will not issue advisory for snow. Showers are expected to diminish Thursday evening except along the Continental Divide due to their proximity to the low exiting over Colorado's east-central plains. In fact, this trend plays out during the weekend and into the first half of the coming week as mean troughing persists over the western U.
622 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. This morning's analysis showed a pressure ridge extending along the Southeast coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The water vapor imagery indicated a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the forecast area. Wind should be light with the ridge axis just southeast of the area. The models display continued surface ridging along the southeast coast limiting moisture here. The medium-range models continue to indicate a low pressure system in the Atlantic moving toward the Southeast coast over the weekend. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical characteristics. High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will provide a general light southerly flow over the area today.
Closed upper low currently over eastern Montana is producing isolated showers over the area. This low will drift east today and will be in North Dakota by evening. The northeast corner of the state will stay within the upper low circulation and a chance of showers could linger all night. The upper low retrogrades somewhat back towards Northeast Montana on Friday before it dissipates. Meanwhile, the next upper trough moves into Western Montana during the day with a frontal system that moves into Central Montana during the afternoon.
Elongated trough still over the region will continue its journey eastward today. Will see a drying trend as the trough departs, with isolated to scattered showers this afternoon over the high terrain of Southwest Idaho (Southeast Oregon will be dry). Upper level flow will turn northwest late Thursday, ahead of an incoming upper level trough which will sweep through the region Thursday night and Friday. Associated cold front will be mainly dry, so main impact will be limited to a 5-10 degree temperature drop and increased winds on its backside region-wide.
140 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. However, the winds are very light and the air still fairly dry with 40-sumpin' dewpoints in the higher elevations and only l-m50s elsewhere. The highest POPs will be over the Alleghenies. The low shear environment will mean there will be little organization to the showers/storms.
Followed close to the H7-H5 trough to time movement and development of shower/storm activity, with increasing development through the late morning hours today, especially across the Coastal Plains.
351 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Upper level low pressure across the Dakotas and MT/WY will be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon. CAM solutions suggest activity will begin across the western/central Dakotas where steeper lapse rates exist closer to the upper low center. A wave of low pressure eventually rides northward along this frontal boundary on Friday, bringing a good chance for rainfall.
As the low level flow brings in more stable air, and with nocturnal cooling, any activity should die off later tonight without a decent low level jet to support our patented nocturnal storms. Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s east and the upper 70s west.
1202 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Upper level low over southern California is expected to make its way into southern Colorado by 00z Friday. the upper low out west will lift into the northern plains. the upper low continues to lift into southern Canada taking the surface front with it as well.
Prominent ridge axis which has been sheltering the area from convection to the west was finally compromised yesterday afternoon and evening. While ridge looks to still be in place, it has been flattened considerably with more westerly wind components blowing through at the moment. While some reorganization of the ridge is likely today, a convective repeat is also likely over the western sections by afternoon with eastern areas remaining dry.
601 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. This morning's analysis showed a pressure ridge extending along the Southeast coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The water vapor imagery indicated a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the forecast area. Wind should be light with the ridge axis just southeast of the area. The models display continued surface ridging along the southeast coast limiting moisture here. The medium-range models continue to indicate a low pressure system in the Atlantic moving toward the Southeast coast over the weekend. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical characteristics. Mainly clear skies overnight and near calm wind as high pressure off the coast ridges into the region.
/issued 802 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/ Strong ridging over the western Atlantic and across the northern Florida peninsula kept relatively dry and stable conditions in place today, while easterly gradient flow pinned the west coast sea breeze right along the coast. High pressure from the Atlantic will continue to extend into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the week, with generally easterly winds holding over the coastal waters.
652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night producing above normal temperatures.
229 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. This morning's analysis showed a pressure ridge extending along the Southeast coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The water vapor imagery indicated a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the forecast area. Wind should be light with the ridge axis just southeast of the area. The models display continued surface ridging along the southeast coast limiting moisture here. The medium-range models continue to indicate a low pressure system in the Atlantic moving toward the Southeast coast over the weekend. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical characteristics.
109 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Sunshine and warmer weather will continue this evening ahead of a cold front. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area tonight. then hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west.
507 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 For today and tnnight, the upper level low pressure system currently over central Arizona will head ene into nrn NM and srn CO by late this afternoon, then towards ern CO and wrn KS by 12Z Friday. As this occurs, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten today in advance of a cold front. For Friday and Friday night, the upper level low pressure system is progged to track newd across KS and NE. The corresponding sfc cold front will move sewd thru the fcst area durg the daylight hours.
1114 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSITENT UPPER LOW OVER FAR NRN MT WITH DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT. Persistent upper level trough over the northwest CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains through the Memorial Day weekend.
These eventually collided just north of Billings and lead to some rapid development due to steep lapse rates thanks to the cold mid level temps aloft (related to the upper low over us). That upper low will again be the primary driver for the short term forecast. The upper low will have finally merged with the broader trough axis to the south and moved into the Dakotas, but leaves our east in a deformation zone. In the meantime, another progressive upper low will slide into the northern Rockies from British Columbia aiding convective development over the Montana high country. Look for highs today to remain seasonal, and then a bit warmer for Friday. The broad upper level trof keeps the region in a generally unsettled and mild pattern through the period, with models in reasonably good agreement.
The upper levels will be dominated by a broad southwest to northeast flow regime, with a building upper ridge from the eastern Gulf coast to the eastern Great Lakes. And there's been a couple lately that have tried, but eventually succumbed to the subsidence of the upper level ridge.
Further development will be possible across the higher terrain as additional low level forcing for ascent will be nonexistent. Following any lingering showers Thursday evening, lows in the low to mid 60s along with patchy valley fog will once again be in the offing overnight in a moist environment. High temperatures each day in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
134 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the wrn U. trough. 75 inch of rain with the highest amounts in the western cwa through Thu afternoon. Broad troughing across the western U. will send several waves of energy NE across the Plains around broad ridging across the eastern U. An axis on the eastern ridge will bring mostly dry conditions to the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning, though a few stray showers cannot be ruled out.
Weak ridging. Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward.
644 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. The highest POPs will be placed over the Alleghenies where the elevated heating surfaces and proximity to the best forcing will compliment each other. The low shear environment will mean there will be little organization to the showers/storms.
Synoptic low and warm front stretches from eastern South Dakota to near Rochester MN with south southwest flow over much of the forecast area now. in the lower to mid 60s.
Upper level low remains over eastern portions of Montana with an unstable north-northwest flow aloft over central and southwest Montana. Upper low. A surface Pacific cold front associated with the incoming upper level trough will likely cross the Continental Divide Friday for increased chances for showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon.
415 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern.
152 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Aviation Weak low pressure moving across Lower Michigan this evening will cause scattered storms to develop, some of which may contain gusty winds.
130 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Summer-like warmth will prevail today as an upper ridge holds across the region. The ridge will begin to move offshore on Friday, allowing tropical low pressure from the Bahamas to spread humid and unsettled air into the region this weekend. High pressure offshore will ridge across the waters overnight. As the ridge reasserts itself overnight. Recovering dewpoints should keep lows from dropping below the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure will help keep conditions dry, with clouds remaining well above 3000 ft.
Low pressure will move east into Arizona today with residual moisture and instability leading to a few showers and thunderstorms over the southern Great Basin through Friday. Low pressure will move east today and northwest flow will set up behind the departing system. Weak troughing will develop and linger over the southwestern states through the weekend which will keep temperatures on the moderate side and a few degrees below normal.
655 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. If this occurs, temperatures may be a little tricky today, but will bank on the combination of enough sun later today and the southwesterly flow to help push temperatures into the lower to mid 80s again this afternoon. We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place across the southeastern United States. It looks like the ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through the day on Friday.
Broad troughing across the western U. will send several waves of energy NE across the Plains around broad ridging across the eastern U. An axis on the eastern ridge will bring mostly dry conditions to the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning, though a few stray showers cannot be ruled out.
441 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night producing above normal temperatures.
136 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and seasonably warm temperatures expected. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little air mass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most spots. Some model differences on how robust this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.
1014 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure with chilly arctic air today into Sunday.
An upper level trough was located across the northern high plains early this morning and will dig southeast across SD and NE into western IA and eastern KS by 00Z SAT. The 6Z NAM model and the higher resolution WRF models show the stronger mid level frontogenesis developing ahead of the upper level trough across western NE then shifting southeast across north central KS into east central KS by this afternoon. It may take a while to saturate the low-levels before snow reaches the surface this morning across the northern counties of the CWA. Tonight, the snow mixed with rain will shift southeast of the CWA by 00Z SUN as the upper level trough digs southeast into the mid and lower MS river valley. Overnight lows will drop int the lower 20s.
625 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 A lingering gradient along with incoming cloud cover ahead of a low pressure system passing to the south has hinder temps dropping off in the valleys. Also have upped the low temps across the area to account for slightly warmer conditions. This is still a bit warmer than anticipated as the colder temps this morning did not quite develop. With the warmer temps to the south, the change over to snow may not occur till later in the day toward the evening. With skies cleared out for the day on Sunday and high pressure passing through temps will rebound nicely by Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s. In general, a seasonally deep trough will take shape in the east, with ridging out west.
The upslope flow will keep chances of a few pop up showers across the higher terrain in the afternoon, with skies clearing from east to west through the afternoon. Temperatures look to be at or slightly cooler than yesterday's readings area wide. Increasing westerly flow aloft across the area through tonight will allow for lee troughing to develop across the I-25 Corridor later this evening with breezy westerly winds expected over and near the higher terrain into early Sunday morning. initially from the west which should realize a quick warm up in the morning before winds shift out of the northwest then north behind a southward advancing cold front through late afternoon. the lower elevations of the Wets and Sangre De Cristo mountains.