Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
758 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Gusty easterly flow as a backdoor cold front pushes through with decreasing shower activity.
Light freezing drizzle, pockets of light snow, and dense fog early this morning, then conditions improve later today. Early this morning cloudy skies with light freezing drizzle, and a few pockets of light snow, along with locally dense fog was found across the Northland. A 500 mb trough was just to our west, while the 700 mb trough was over the western portions of the CWA. Overnight lows will dip into the low 20s to low 30s. Expect highs in the upper 30s northwest and near Grand Marais, to the low 50s over north-central Wisconsin. A long wave trough slowly crosses the region.
1042 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A backdoor cold front has pushed across the area into the Gulf of Mexico. /issued 758 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ Gusty easterly flow as a backdoor cold front pushes through with decreasing shower activity.
Low level winds will become southerly later this morning, and will begin to erode the cooler airmass that has been in place across Central Alabama for a couple days now. Temperatures should be 10+ degrees warmer this afternoon than yesterday. The upper level ridge axis will be just to the east of the area this morning. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s east to low 60s west.
1120 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Warm front early this morning.
A long wave trough axis was aligned across the Rockies, helping to force Gulf moisture into the Ozarks. For the most part, tomorrow will be dry and cool with highs ranging from the upper 40s in the Osage Plains, to the lower 60s in south central Missouri. By late afternoon Wednesday, the upper low will approach the Ozarks from the west.
946 AM MST Tue Mar 27 2018 A low pressure system will exit the region today with windy conditions across southeast California and lingering chances of light showers across the higher terrain in far eastern Arizona. High pressure will then build in from the west resulting in a strong warming trend.
A few reports of flooding have been reported thus far in the higher total areas. A long wave trough axis was aligned across the Rockies, helping to force Gulf moisture into the Ozarks. For the most part, tomorrow will be dry and cool with highs ranging from the upper 40s in the Osage Plains, to the lower 60s in south central Missouri. By late afternoon Wednesday, the upper low will approach the Ozarks from the west.
Aloft - Broad troughing continues over the western states while an embedded low over the Desert Southwest ejects out over the southern high plains as a short wave trough. An upper ridge from near the Yucatan to the lower Saint Lawrence River Valley shifts east. Surface - High pressure centered over New Brunswick, Canada. and ridging down to the Gulf of Mexico and FL. maintaining ridging westward across Fl to the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be 2 to 3 degrees above normal for the highs while the lows run within a degree or two of normal. This pattern will be characterized by longwave ridging from the Caribbean into the western Atlantic Ocean, and a trough upper trough across the Great Plains.
850 mb temps still look to be above freezing for much of the area until late tonight/early tomorrow morning. An inch or less of snow accumulation looks possible for most places over the lower elevations, with a few inches of snow over the mountains.
843 AM PDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A cold front will bring windy conditions today with rain and mountain snow showers expected in Idaho and along the Cascade Crest.
A weak system will brush by northern Utah late tonight and Wednesday with a warm front. High pressure will build in across the region in the wake of this feature bringing a warming trend. Temperatures this morning are on the chilly side, with most locations up and down the north- south stretch of interstate 15 near or just below freezing. Temperatures aloft (700mb) will warm a bit with a warm front pushing through, so valley rain and mountain snow looks fitting going into Wednesday. Beyond that, high pressure will continue to settle in to the west with a mostly dry northwest flow pattern in place through late week, leading to gradually warming daytime temperatures.
Slow-moving cold front has made some, but not a lot of progress into the forecast area early this morning, currently stretching from central portions of Creek County northeastward to near Bartlesville and northeast of Nowata. Additional showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop along the cold front during the past hour, a trend that should continue through the rest of the morning. Another round of thunderstorms and below normal temperatures will accompany another cold front this weekend.
This should allow temperatures to rebound to the lower to middle 50s.
611 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A ridge is situated over the western CONUS while a trough hangs over roughly the eastern half. Kansas remains in the ridge territory which has prompted fabulous conditions for the day with clear blue skies, temperatures in the 80s and light winds by Kansas standards. A trough is traveling down the coast of British Columbia and soon heading east to the Rockies. There will be troffing along the lee of the Rockies prompting potential thunderstorm development in the northern portions of the High Plains.
1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A ridge is situated over the western CONUS while a trough hangs over roughly the eastern half. Kansas remains in the ridge territory which has prompted fabulous conditions for the day with clear blue skies, temperatures in the 80s and light winds by Kansas standards. A trough is traveling down the coast of British Columbia and soon heading east to the Rockies. There will be troffing along the lee of the Rockies prompting potential thunderstorm development in the northern portions of the High Plains.
Across the rest of the area, a weakening ridge over far West Texas will continue to slowly slide west and continue to flatten out, allowing for northwest flow to persist across the region. With this northwest flow aloft and a weak cold front over the southern Big Country, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along that boundary this afternoon.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Area of high pressure will continue to move of to the east overnight and Thursday. Have kept overnight low temperatures a bit warmer that last night due to the switch to southeast winds overnight and due to increasing mid-level clouds.
902 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Monsoon moisture was working its way toward the area, and this combined with some weak energy undercutting the northern Rockies ridge, developed a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Have trimmed back PoPs over the west and confined activity to mainly over the higher terrain. Ridging begins to push eastward this evening as a low pressure system moves into central Canada. Associated weak cold front will slide into the area tomorrow night. Ahead of the cold front, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the mountains during the afternoon and transition eastward onto the Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.
With earlier DCape values approaching 2000 J/kg, several long lasting outflow boundaries have been washing across the lower elevations of southern Arizona bringing areas of blowing dust into Pinal and Maricopa counties. /137 PM MST Wed Aug 23 2017/ Already by Thursday, the trough lifting to the northeast will begin to beat back the lower level moisture. Heading into the weekend, a broad anti-cyclone gradually develops across the western states, with the maximum height anomalies situations over the PacNW. We're unlikely to reach the high category unless forecast temperatures increase by several degrees.
With an upper level ridge moving east tonight and a weak upper level trof approaching the region, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible over Southwest MT.
/issued 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ Cold front continues to make its way swd this aftn, and is now s of I-20.
624 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A fast-moving trough of low pressure will bring rain showers to much of northern Minnesota and inland portions of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon through this evening. The highest rain totals are expected from western Itasca County including Alvwood and Inger south through Brainerd and Aitkin and Hinckley. High pressure will continue to be the main influence over the Northland for Thursday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures remaining cool in the low to upper 60s.
Otherwise, high pressure building into the region will provide mainly dry but cool weather through the weekend. A broad trof will reside over the Northeastern U.
/issued 346 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ A cold front has pushed into central Mississippi this afternoon while a relatively drier north to northeast wind prevails north of the boundary over the forecast area.
Winds become southerly tomorrow as an area of high pressure at the surface slides off to the southeast. Cloud cover Thursday will keep temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal, with highs remaining in the low 70s. All in all, cooler than normal temperatures are expected, along with showers and periodic thunderstorms.
701 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will be felt across the region through the weekend. West to northwesterly flow in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere will keep the cool and dry air reinforced through the weekend. The usual cooler pockets should see mins dip into the 40s. In particular one late Thursday will increase clouds, however moisture remains too limited for anything other than slight chance for showers in the higher terrain. Low heights associated with upper trough and overall west to northwest flow will reinforce cool temps and dry humidity.
725 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cooler and drier under high pressure into the weekend. Removed any mention of showers from the forecast this afternoon and evening as much drier air aloft pushes in with high pressure. Back into a fog pattern with high pressure building and cool and dry air continuing to filter in after a cold frontal passage. Models in good agreement with high pressure in control, with warm sunny days and cool foggy nights/mornings.
Highs on Thursday will be dependent on how long cloud cover lingers in the NE half of the area, but in general we expect highs to be a degree or two warmer than today, in the upper 70s to around 80. The extended will be dominated by an upper trough in eastern Canada/Great Lakes and an upper ridge in the Plains and Rockies, setting up a persistent northwest flow into Illinois through this weekend.
728 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday. High pressure will build into the region for the end of the week. bringing a cooler and drier airmass. Overnight low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Thursday morning, the cold front will be over the eastern Midlands with dry air pushing from the west.
Temperatures also running cooler back in the rain cooled air.
820 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. An upper level trough will cross the region Thursday afternoon, increasing the chances for a spotty shower or two in central Ohio. Readings Thursday night will drop down to the 50-55 degree range with a few cooler locations dipping into the upper 40s.
1027 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday. High pressure will build into the region for the end of the week. bringing a cooler and drier airmass. Overnight low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Thursday morning, the cold front will be over the eastern Midlands with dry air pushing from the west.
/issued 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ Today is expected to be a relatively down day for convective activity compared to the past and future several days despite height falls from a weakening upper level ridge to the west.
713 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will be felt across the region through the weekend. West to northwesterly flow in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere will keep the cool and dry air reinforced through the weekend. The usual cooler pockets should see mins dip into the 40s. In particular one late Thursday will increase clouds, however moisture remains too limited for anything other than slight chance for showers in the higher terrain. Low heights associated with upper trough and overall west to northwest flow will reinforce cool temps and dry humidity.
904 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure ridge is sitting right over the CWA this evening and will slowly move east overnight. Current forecast has good handle on everything, including temps falling into the lower to middle 50s. Highs on Thursday will be dependent on how long cloud cover lingers in the NE half of the area, but in general we expect highs to be a degree or two warmer than today, in the upper 70s to around 80. The extended will be dominated by an upper trough in eastern Canada/Great Lakes and an upper ridge in the Plains and Rockies, setting up a persistent northwest flow into Illinois through this weekend.
Will add a few integers to the sky grid to account for the high deck.
Other than temperatures running a little warmer than forecast for portions of northern and western ND, the forecast is on track with no other changes made. Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from the midwest into the central plains while low remains to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from the central Rockies into the western Canadian plains with northwest flow over our area. On Thursday, besides some clouds passing through eastern locations, a mainly quiet day is on tap as upper ridge axis passes over. Behind the ridge axis, potent short wave attempts to close off as it slides into the plains.
1121 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 H5 analysis this morning had closed low pressure over Quebec with a trough of low pressure extending south into the central Appalachian Mountains. High pressure was south of the trough over the western Atlantic, off the coast of northern Florida. High pressure extended west to northern Mexico, where a secondary high pressure was located south of Arizona. A ridge extended north of this feature into the northern Rockies and into northern Alberta. At the surface, high pressure was located over southeastern Nebraska near Falls City. Further west, a more favorable set up for convective development appears along the Cheyenne ridge of se Wyoming and am expecting convective development there. As this activity moves east it is expected to dissipate as the low level jet is anchored well east of the panhandle.
High pressure continues to build into the Mid South this evening with skies rapidly clearing through midnight. /issued 346 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ A cold front has pushed into central Mississippi this afternoon while a relatively drier north to northeast wind prevails north of the boundary over the forecast area.
1238 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will move into the area tonight and linger nearby through the end of the week.
1130 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across the northeastern CONUS, which will place the Midwest within cyclonic northwesterly flow through the period. This high will shift east across the region tonight, allowing for calm winds and clear skies. With dewpoints having mixed out into the low 50s this afternoon, expect a cool night. Would not be surprised to see some of the cooler valley locations dip into the low 50s or even upper 40s.
Dry and cooler weather will be seen on Thursday, with highs well below normal values, in the 80s statewide.
A gradual warming and drying trend will take hold across the region beginning tomorrow as high pressure aloft returns to the Great Basin.
The high resolution models still seem to want to show much more pcpn development than is actually occurring. High pressure to drop south into the area late Thursday and move east Thursday overnight with return flow setting up over E ND and the RRV.
The weather pattern during the short term can be depicted as an upper level ridge over the Rockies with long wave troughs on either side. Towards the surface, a dome of high pressure will be located east of the area with a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado. This will lead to warmer temperatures overnight with lows ranging from the low 60s west to upper 50s across central Kansas. The lee trough will intensify tomorrow leading to breezy southerly winds tomorrow.
Still watching short wave trough upstream that will swing through area tonight and into Thursday morning.
Bigelbach Previous Discussion: Another warm day is expected for northeast Montana on Thursday as the upper ridge axis slides east ahead of an approaching cold front.
646 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across the northeastern CONUS, which will place the Midwest within cyclonic northwesterly flow through the period. This high will shift east across the region tonight, allowing for calm winds and clear skies. With dewpoints having mixed out into the low 50s this afternoon, expect a cool night. Would not be surprised to see some of the cooler valley locations dip into the low 50s or even upper 40s.
630 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 H5 analysis this morning had closed low pressure over Quebec with a trough of low pressure extending south into the central Appalachian Mountains. High pressure was south of the trough over the western Atlantic, off the coast of northern Florida. High pressure extended west to northern Mexico, where a secondary high pressure was located south of Arizona. A ridge extended north of this feature into the northern Rockies and into northern Alberta. At the surface, high pressure was located over southeastern Nebraska near Falls City. Further west, a more favorable set up for convective development appears along the Cheyenne ridge of se Wyoming and am expecting convective development there. As this activity moves east it is expected to dissipate as the low level jet is anchored well east of the panhandle.
After overperforming in many spots last night despite the calm conditions, tonight's lows look to be warmer due to an expected 5 to 10 knot southeast breeze.
1219 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A reinforcing cold front is expected to generate some showers on Thursday. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. Rapid cooling in the mid levels combined with diurnal heating should allow for shower development as the mid-level trough swings across the area. Fries A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. The Ohio Valley will lie between this ridge and the persistent upper trough on the east coast.
The main upper level trough will be locked over the eastern lakes tonight thru Thu night while weak s/w troughs rotate SE thru the area with the most pronounced one late Thu and early Thu night. The upper trough over the relatively warm leri will create instability that may lead to a few lake effect shra anytime into midday Thu before an increased threat occurs late Thu aftn and Thu night.
Cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough in place for much of Thursday so after any lingering mid clouds move off should see some more in the way of CU formation.
519 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary stretching from central MT through eastern WY to weak low pressure over far southeast WY. Upper level analysis shows negatively tilted ridge centered over the northern Rockies, with northwest flow continuing across the Northern Plains. Will see southeasterly winds increase on Thursday, becoming breezy across the SD plains, as low pressure forms along the boundary over eastern MT.
The weakness in the upper level ridge currently over Southeast Texas is not expected to change over the next several days.
Some showers and storms currently noted mainly around the mtns of southeast Wyoming but having some difficulty moving east off the higher terrain.
A nice convergent area through Southeast Arizona this afternoon along with dynamics from the trough immediately west of the area led to organized thunderstorm development. Our favorable thunderstorm environment will shift a little eastward tomorrow as the low upstream sags into southern California and some drying wraps into the southwest part of the state.
Don't expect any problems with the low layer dissipating as temperatures cool.
Isolated thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain.
921 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front will move into the area tonight and linger nearby through the end of the week.
High pressure to drop south into the area late Thursday and move east Thursday overnight with return flow setting up over E ND and the RRV.
atypically cool high pressure continues to sink into the southern plains.
High pressure will stay to our north, over the Great Lakes for the short term. We won't be in the weakest part of the ridge, so not looking for as large of an urban/rural temperature difference each night as on a perfectly calm/clear night. At play will be what becomes of TC Harvey to our south and how much moisture gets picked up from it as an upper low drops into the Midwest. A persistent TC in the TX/LA area through midweek would likely help to keep troughing over our region, which would take in that moisture for good rain chances each day. Patchy fog in river valleys and low lying areas may reduce visibilities briefly tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period, with high pressure keeping skies mostly cloud free and winds relatively light.
While the panhandles still remain under a northwest flow aloft, a 700mb weak high pressure system will shift over the central OK/KS border and return flow south of the high will funnel in drier from the eastern Panhandles and stretch westward.
Quiet and slightly below normal temps prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Wed afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today. Temp trends currently in the lower/mid 80s should quickly lower this evening into the 70s and eventually into the lower 60s for most locations by early Thu morning. Quiet and tranquil conditions will prevail across the mid TN Valley thru the end of the work week, as a strong area of high pressure builds ewd across the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Afternoon temps look to remain slightly below seasonal trends Thu/Fri, with highs mainly in the mid 80s for most areas while overnight lows Thu night/Fri night remain in the lower/mid 60s.
Fairly light WNW flow across the region today will keep rain chances on the low side through the evening hours. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with low temperatures generally in the lower 70s.
1034 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cooler and drier under high pressure into the weekend. With high pressure moving overhead the forecast remains on track and no changes are needed at this time. Removed any mention of showers from the forecast this afternoon and evening as much drier air aloft pushes in with high pressure. Back into a fog pattern with high pressure building and cool and dry air continuing to filter in after a cold frontal passage. Models in good agreement with high pressure in control, with warm sunny days and cool foggy nights/mornings.
Slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday due to both a little cold advection and more cloud cover.