Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
924 AM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 Visible satellite and regional observations show high pressure and and associated dry air settling into the region. /issued 339 AM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ A cold front presently bisects the region roughly just to the north of the I-10 corridor although you wouldn't know it looking at the clear satellite this morning. High pressure at the surface and the eastern fringes of an upper level ridge centered across the western U.
Plan on the stratus hanging around tonight as that moisture is trapped under subsidence inversion of a ridge axis. Looking for the stratus to slowly erode from west to east Tuesday then as southwest winds kick in and mix out that low-level moisture on the backside of departing high pressure ridge. The upper level low currently just off the southern California coast will open up and start to eject northeast toward the Midwest. At the same time, a northern stream short wave trough will come in off the Pacific and work east across the Rockies. This make sense as the retreating ridge to the east is losing amplitude and should not cause the two waves to phase into each other.
245 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 WV imagery shows a broad upper ridge over the western CONUS, while a closed trough digs down the CA coast. At the sfc, despite light northerly flow from a ridge over srn CO, temperatures are already just above normal, and should top out in the mid 60s this afternoon most locations. A warming trend is on tap through at least midweek as thicknesses increase under the ridge.
Northerly flow will persist into the evening and early overnight hours, which will help keep the low level clouds in place through the end of Monday. Trended temps tonight slightly warmer for the overnight temperatures, given the low clouds in place. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s, but if sunshine starts to become more prominent, highs may even reach the lower 40s.
/Issued 1202 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ /Through Tomorrow/ With the exception of a few high clouds across far West Texas, much of the state remains cloud-free as high pressure continues to dominate the region. Much of the region will be in the 30s, with a few upper 20s possible where topography typically leads to cooler temperatures. This will help push temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to today.
A cold and breezy day forecast as a cold front exits to the south and east. Northerly to northwesterly winds will be gusty throughout the day with highs only climbing into the low to mid 40s. These combination of factors, will keep wind chill values in the low to mid 30s throughout the day. Additionally, clouds will increase across the area late this morning and afternoon as they rotate southward into the area as a mid-level trough pivots across the Tennessee Valley. As the upper-trough pulls away from the Tennessee Valley this evening, expect winds to relax and the sky to clear. The end result should be an excellent setup for radiational cooling and expect temperatures to fall back into the low to mid 20s by early Tuesday morning.
131 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 A cold day across the Tennessee Valley with gusty winds behind a departing cold front with temperatures this afternoon only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The upper level pattern is rather amplified across the CONUS with a trough across the Southeastern U. and a broad ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, the cold front is now well to the south and east of the forecast area. High pressure is forecast to move into the area tonight and winds will begin to relax later this evening. Another trough will race southwards from the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee River Valley overnight into early Tuesday. Therefore, do not expect this trough will bring anything more than a few high clouds late tonight into early Tuesday.
Weak mid level ridging takes hold over South-Central Texas through Tuesday with high pressure remaining intact at the surface.
1039 AM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 A vigorous prefrontal trough pushed through the Keys this morning, with widespread rains and embedded thunderstorms. The highest registered wind gust was 34 knots, although we tend to think this is a testament to limited sampling. Skies are mostly cloudy and temperatures are limited to the lower 70s. Northwest winds are near 25 knots at 42003 behind the cold front. A thin band of weak showers will accompany the cold frontal passage this afternoon, otherwise we would remove rain chances. From synopsis, a cold front will move through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys late this afternoon into this evening, accompanied by strong northwest to north breezes.
Light westerly winds will keep temperatures above normal further west, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s (warmer in elevated areas).
/Monday through Tuesday Night/ Northwest flow aloft will continue in the next 36 hours, as high pressure slowly drifts eastward over the ArkLaTex, maintaining average temperatures for this time of the year with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s.
447 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 Clear skies have continued the trend of above normal temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures in the low 60s across the High Plains and upper 40s to low 50s along and west of the Laramie Range. Breezy and dry conditions have brought areas of the High Plains very close to critical fire weather conditions - a strange thing to have to say for this time of year. A continuation of these sort of conditions tomorrow as an upper level ridge continued to dominate the region's weather.
512 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 Tonight looks similar to last night as temperatures fall below freezing with fog and low clouds over portions of the area, especially toward Central MO. Have included a mention of fog and potential for slick spots on bridges in the HWO. Tuesday will be just a little warmer than today with highs in the 50s (maybe upper 40s toward central MO where clouds and fog linger longest).
The low pressure system will continue to produce an offshore, or easterly, gradient through tonight over our southern area, mainly south of Fresno County.
The Short Term period will be characterized by continued dry and mild weather, as western Kansas will remain under the influence of large scale upper level ridging.
Tonight and Tuesday: As a longwave upper trough persists over the East Coast, surface ridging will build along the Gulf Coast, keeping things generally quiet over our area. With steadily rising low level heights, Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today.
543 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 A weak area of high pressure in the Midwest will result in dry and seasonable conditions through Tuesday. Forecast challenge in the short term will be sky cover and temperatures as we remain on the far western edge of an upper low on the east coast. This would keep the clouds currently in central IL from being able to dissipate tonight into early Tuesday as the low moisture remains trapped in a shallow layer just under the inversion. As the upper low shifts off of the east coast and weak upper ridging develops during the day Tuesday, the back edge of the clouds should gradually move out/thin. Due to lingering clouds much of Tuesday, also lowered high temps into the lower-middle 40s. Upper level ridging in the western U.
Local radar continues to show some weak snow shower activity across the higher terrain in our southeast. But moisture will become increasingly more limited as cooler and drier air filters into eastern Kentucky. At this time thinking is that any potential accumulations will be quite limited, less than an inch and realized only at the highest elevations. Thus feel any hazards would also be limited to some potential slick spots over the mountain passes in the higher terrain. But again, better cooling will occur as sunset approaches and thus could not rule out some slick spots, especially at exposed locations and bridges.
Under clear skies, temperatures warmed fairly quickly, reaching the low to mid 50s by 2 PM today. An upper level vort max will continue to pass south out of Iowa into Missouri tonight as it traverses the periphery of our ridge. Heights will gradually rise tonight behind the passing wave, as the ridge attempts to shift eastward.
339 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 A quiet and pleasant day to start the week with high pressure and CAA yielding sunny skies and afternoon highs about 5 degrees or so below climatological normals.
At the surface, a weak trough axis extends from near the KS/MO border, northward through eastern ND.
357 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 West Texas sits between full latitude trough over the eastern Conus and an upper low off the Baja coast. Upper ridging will become more pronounced early Tuesday, and then SW flow aloft will commence later in the day. Warmer day Tuesday with some weak downsloping after a chilly start with temps ranging from 27 in SW Panhandle to mid 30s off the Caprock.
Troughing across the eastern Great Lakes from the interaction of separate PV anomalies is leading to N to NW lower level flow across southeast Michigan. Increasing upper heights along with some warm/dry advection will continue to favor some degree of clearing into tonight while temperatures drop into the low/mid 20s. There will be a slight increase in height fields on Tuesday associated with a quick passing ridge squeezed between the exiting trough to the east and a southeast moving trough across Ontario.
High pressure will remain just to the W of AR providing NWrly flow and SKC conds over the CWA through the end of the period.
/NEW/ Update: Tranquil weather will continue in the short term forecast as high pressure influences North and Central Texas. High temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly warmer than today, ranging from the mid 60s along the Red River to near 70s degrees across portions of Central Texas. Garcia Previous Discussion: /Through Tomorrow/ With the exception of a few high clouds across far West Texas, much of the state remains cloud-free as high pressure continues to dominate the region. Much of the region will be in the 30s, with a few upper 20s possible where topography typically leads to cooler temperatures. This will help push temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to today.
Expect mostly clear skies and cold conditions tonight as high pressure remains in control. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: As a longwave upper trough persists over the East Coast, surface ridging will build along the Gulf Coast, keeping things generally quiet over our area. With steadily rising low level heights, Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Northwest flow aloft will continue in the next 36 hours, as high pressure slowly drifts eastward over the ArkLaTex, maintaining average temperatures for this time of the year with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s.
531 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 A broad upper level ridge currently extends across the western CONUS with a closed low off the coast of southern CA. This upper ridge will flatten out Tuesday night across the region as an upper trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Again, went with the high end of guidance for highs with highs around 65 areawide.
/issued 357 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ West Texas sits between full latitude trough over the eastern Conus and an upper low off the Baja coast. Upper ridging will become more pronounced early Tuesday, and then SW flow aloft will commence later in the day. Warmer day Tuesday with some weak downsloping after a chilly start with temps ranging from 27 in SW Panhandle to mid 30s off the Caprock.
308 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 Tonight and Tuesday: As a longwave upper trough persists over the East Coast, surface ridging will build along the Gulf Coast, keeping things generally quiet over our area. With steadily rising low level heights, Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today.
The ridge of high pressure is starting to flatten which is allowing some high level clouds to stream into the region.
205 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 Clear skies have continued the trend of above normal temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures in the low 60s across the High Plains and upper 40s to low 50s along and west of the Laramie Range. Breezy and dry conditions have brought areas of the High Plains very close to critical fire weather conditions - a strange thing to have to say for this time of year. A continuation of these sort of conditions tomorrow as an upper level ridge continued to dominate the region's weather.
732 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 The cold front has pushed well south of the forecast area with Canadian high pressure building over the region in its wake. Clear skies and drainage flow down the peninsula will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s across the nature coast, with upper 30s to lower 40s central and south away from the coast.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous nights and this will give a good launching pad for temperatures tomorrow.
/issued 245 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ WV imagery shows a broad upper ridge over the western CONUS, while a closed trough digs down the CA coast. At the sfc, despite light northerly flow from a ridge over srn CO, temperatures are already just above normal, and should top out in the mid 60s this afternoon most locations. A warming trend is on tap through at least midweek as thicknesses increase under the ridge.
West wind 5 to 10 kts tonight in E ND with warmer air moving esp at 925 mb and will expect to see the higher terrain west of the Red River valley remain near or a bit above freezing tonight, esp Walhalla area.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 233 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 High pressure will settle over the Northern Great Basin through the middle of the week, before a dry cold front arriving late this week may aid in mixing out or weakening valley inversions.
A cold day across the Tennessee Valley with gusty winds behind a departing cold front with temperatures this afternoon only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The upper level pattern is rather amplified across the CONUS with a trough across the Southeastern U. and a broad ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, the cold front is now well to the south and east of the forecast area. High pressure is forecast to move into the area tonight and winds will begin to relax later this evening. Another trough will race southwards from the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee River Valley overnight into early Tuesday. Therefore, do not expect this trough will bring anything more than a few high clouds late tonight into early Tuesday.
423 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 Water vapor shows broad ridge over the western/central CONUS with trof offshore the Pac NW. Surface trof is pushing into the Upper Midwest with strong ridge over the Rockies.
249 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 High pressure over the region will continue very dry and warm conditions through Tuesday. Given the low relative humidity, temperatures in the 50s and 60s, and breezy conditions, have gone ahead and continued the Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for areas from Roundup to Billings and west tomorrow. Overall, the main story remains the same, for cooler and somewhat more unsettled weather.
At the surface, high pressure will continue over Texas as well as over the Appalachians. An area of low pressure will develop over Missouri overnight tonight; however, this feature will slowly make its way southward through the day on Tuesday and eventually dissipate over the ArkLaTex region by late afternoon.
This pushed KLAS into the low 70s this afternoon and as of 2PM, the high T was 70 degrees. Winds have overachieved a bit in some of the higher elevation observations sites such as Five Mile, CA where gusts up to 70 mph have been seen. However, with the low quickly exiting southwest today per latest satellite trends, this should be very isolated and decrease through the rest of the day. Cloud cover should also decrease throughout the day as moisture and lifting push southwest with the low center. Winds will continue to decrease Tuesday as the closed low pushes well off shore of California and broad southerly flow at 500 mb returns and the resultant surface gradient relaxes.
A classic split-flow synoptic pattern highlighted by a Rex Block over the west coast and a deep trough over the east will provide strong northwest flow aloft over our neck of the woods. With dewpoints in the low/mid 30s, we'll probably see some patchy, light fog tonight. Even thought temperatures are forecast to drop to near/below freezing, we don't expect any ice accretion due to the lack of dense fog. A deep upper trough is located over the eastern U. Some isolated fog/freezing fog is possible late mainly near bodies of water.
517 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Deepening low pressure will pass well south and east of the area through Tuesday, followed by weak high pressure nudging in from the southwest Tuesday night.
/issued 339 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ A quiet and pleasant day to start the week with high pressure and CAA yielding sunny skies and afternoon highs about 5 degrees or so below climatological normals.
201 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 A ridge of high pressure over the central Rockies will allow for the dry and warm condition to continue through Tuesday. Temperatures across the plains will be in the lower 60s in most areas, nearly 15 degrees above normal.
However, with an upper ridge, westerly flow, and a warmer air mass all in place can't completely rule out the warmer temps.
423 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Local radar continues to show some weak snow shower activity across the higher terrain in our southeast. But moisture will become increasingly more limited as cooler and drier air filters into eastern Kentucky. At this time thinking is that any potential accumulations will be quite limited, less than an inch and realized only at the highest elevations. Thus feel any hazards would also be limited to some potential slick spots over the mountain passes in the higher terrain. But again, better cooling will occur as sunset approaches and thus could not rule out some slick spots, especially at exposed locations and bridges.
Eventually, this flow will increase with the low status and fog dissipating from west to east through Tuesday morning. /Tonight through Monday/ *Fog/freezing fog expected to redevelop over large parts of central/western Iowa tonight while stratus sticks around. While predominantly quiet, there will be some impactful conditions, namely fog/freezing fog, across large swaths of central and western Iowa again tonight and into Tuesday morning. Stratus should see some westward expansion tonight, and greatest fog/freezing fog potential will be along/west of I-35 tonight. Fog/freezing fog and stratus should improve fairly quickly Tuesday mid-late morning as WAA surface flow out of the west increases and near-surface flow from the northwest advects in drier air.
810 PM MST Mon Dec 7 2020 Evening GOES-E IR/WV imagery showed some high clouds spreading south through northern WY and western SD along the eastern periphery of a western CONUS upper ridge. Clear skies have continued the trend of above normal temperatures for this time of year, with temperatures in the low 60s across the High Plains and upper 40s to low 50s along and west of the Laramie Range. Breezy and dry conditions have brought areas of the High Plains very close to critical fire weather conditions - a strange thing to have to say for this time of year. A continuation of these sort of conditions tomorrow as an upper level ridge continued to dominate the region's weather.
Temperatures are dipping into the 30s and will continue falling to near or below the freezing mark.
1134 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 A weak area of high pressure in the Midwest will result in dry and seasonable conditions through Tuesday. Forecast challenge in the short term will be sky cover and temperatures as we remain on the far western edge of an upper low on the east coast. This would keep the clouds currently in central IL from being able to dissipate tonight into early Tuesday as the low moisture remains trapped in a shallow layer just under the inversion. As the upper low shifts off of the east coast and weak upper ridging develops during the day Tuesday, the back edge of the clouds should gradually move out/thin. Due to lingering clouds much of Tuesday, also lowered high temps into the lower-middle 40s. Upper level ridging in the western U.
A ridge of high pressure over the central Rockies will allow for the dry and warm condition to continue through Tuesday. Temperatures across the plains will be in the lower 60s in most areas, nearly 15 degrees above normal.
1036 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 Tonight looks similar to last night as temperatures fall below freezing with fog and low clouds over portions of the area, especially toward Central MO. Have included a mention of fog and potential for slick spots on bridges in the HWO. Tuesday will be just a little warmer than today with highs in the 50s (maybe upper 40s toward central MO where clouds and fog linger longest).
1224 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Low pressure will lift northeast away from the area tonight. High pressure will build in on Tuesday and prevail through late week.
/Issued 1121 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ /Through Tuesday/ Ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air across the region will result in a clear night and a sunny day on Tuesday. Abundant sun on Tuesday and subtle adiabatic warming from a west/northwest wind at or below 10 mph will result in a steady warmup through the day with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
1125 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Scattered snow showers and flurries should persist through Tuesday before diminishing under building high pressure. This should limit accumulation potential to around an inch on the highest ridge tops. The upper low will be near or just off of the Atlantic Coast by 12Z Tuesday, and the downward trend of snow shower coverage will continue from the overnight period. Mainly isolated snow showers should largely end by midday as ridging begins to build in from the west. However, moisture remains trapped underneath the lowering inversion, suggesting that any clearing will be slow to occur.
Further east, cloud cover northwest to southeast over southern middle Tennessee and portions of NE AL have kept temperatures in the lower to mid 30s at this hour. With dewpoint depression values already between 4 and 7 degrees in some locations, believe some patchy freezing fog is possible after midnight.
Sfc ridging will remain in place through sunrise and thus, we should see good radiational cooling conditions overnight tonight. MOS output has been having a warm bias with this dry and cool atmosphere in place and with 03z temperatures coming in very close to those we saw this time last night or even a degree or two cooler, this update will include lowering the overnight low temperature forecast across most locations.
349 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 The Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas will remain between low pressure off the East Coast and high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley today and tonight.
Thus far the lowest visibilities have remained just north of the forecast area, but short term model guidance does indicate these lower visibilities spreading/developing southward into our central Missouri counties through the early morning hours. Evening shift had hoisted a dense fog advisory over central Missouri and given model trends will keep as is, and moniotor for possible expansion if the lower visibilities make it further south. Could be some slick spots as early morning temperatures are below freezing within that fog area. For the remainder of the day and night, the mid and upper level ridge over the western conus will build eastward into the area. This will make a continued increase in temperatures with highs again a few degrees warmer that Monday. Clear skies and milder temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.