Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A very cold and dry Christmas Day across the Mid- South as 1026 mb ridge of cold arctic high pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures still remain below freezing across much of the Mid-South despite ample sunshine. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the area range from the lower to middle 30s across portions of North Mississippi and 20s to around 30 degrees elsewhere.
There will be a fairly large west to east temperature gradient across the area this afternoon as the warmer air starts to move in.
1022 AM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 Western NOAM ridge will shift east and allow for mild and dry conditions through Sat. Thermal ridge will time over the area this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies expected. Backdoor cold front will settle into the FA tonight, with low clouds and fog possible in the eastern third.
Light westerly winds this afternoon will shift out of the south to southwest this evening and persist into Saturday as high pressure moves eastward. The high will gradually shift to the south and east today, allowing for onshore flow and moisture to gradually return by tonight.
213 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 Temperatures remain pretty chilly across the region this afternoon in the wake of last night's cold front. With winds diminishing and dewpoints beginning to fall, we will see the Nature Coast and portions of Polk County dipping below freezing tonight, prompting the freeze warning.
The adjustments made last night to the high temperature forecast are holding up well, and we might even have to adjust up a few more degrees in some areas of the plains. The ridge is slowly flattening out and we can expect increasing westerly flow aloft by end of day, with some high cloudiness increasing over the mountains this evening. Model soundings support highs just a little warmer on the plains, mainly upper 50s, despite fairly light winds. The low spots may lag behind a little. On Saturday, a flat upper level ridge will be over the Central and Northern Plains States with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado.
A cold front will cross the region Saturday, bringing snow to high terrain and rain for lower elevations below 4000-5000ft.
1147 AM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 Surface ridging situated across the region will shift off to the east today, and in an evolving warm air advection regime it will be a much milder day as winds become southerly. Low pressure sliding across central Canada will pull a weak boundary through our area tonight. This will reinforce colder air over our area with lows tonight in the lower teens, with some guidance suggesting stratus feeding in behind the boundary.
228 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 Late this afternoon a warm front continues to ooze east across the region, with temperatures warming nicely behind the front. A band of light snow is expected to accompany those systems, with the latest GEFS data suggesting that the higher accumulations will be over eastern ND and NW MN.
Clouds will continue to increase from the southwest today as a deep trough approaches the region. The Blue and West Central Idaho Mountains will see roughly 3 to 6 inches of new snow accumulation through Saturday with the highest peaks accumulating up to a foot.
Looks like the warm front has made it to the Missouri valley, and that front should continue to trudge east through the day. A warm front is draped across the western Dakotas with temps in the 30s in the western part of the state this morning. This will help to ensure some cooler temperatures compared to today's stick around through the daytime period.
A highly amplified longwave trof over the eastern states takes on a negative tilt while moving off into the western Atlantic through tonight, with a fairly zonal flow pattern evolving over the forecast area. Highs on Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees below seasonable values and mainly in the lower 50s.
Activity ending from west to east as the day progresses as the short wave trough responsible for the Christmas Day present of light precipitation moves through the area.
236 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 High pressure will continue to build in from the west across the CWA tonight. The high center will move east across the outlook area through tomorrow night. 500mb analysis shows a long wave trough moving off the eastern seaboard.
Upper level analysis places low over the eastern Ohio River Valley, with ridge over the northern Rockies. On Saturday, with the exception of some morning fog a rather quiet day is on tap ahead of a little clipper system slides down the front of the ridge and drops into our area Saturday night.
1252 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 Arctic high pressure will build across the region through the weekend. Cold an blustery with snow flurries/isolated snow showers The surface cold front has moved offshore with a trailing mixed precip band of rain and wet snow starting to exit the area. The unseasonably deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates, associated with the anomalously deep closed low traversing the region, will result in frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph through the early evening. The deep mid/upper level trough will lift off to the north and east Saturday, yielding a general westerly flow in it's wake.
Little change expected in the arctic air mass spreading into the mid TN Valley from the west, aided by a deep upper low/trough lifting NE across the mid/srn Atlantic states.
255 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 Tonight and Saturday: High pressure will settle over southern portions tonight providing calm winds and clear skies.
Another lobe of the upper trough will swing southward today, bringing a bit of additional cloud cover and more chances of snow to the area. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with dry high pressure.
1128 AM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 H5 ridging continues across Wyoming this Christmas Day, with modest westerly flow continuing across the state. The Big Horn Basin and the I-25 corridor remain warmer, with highs in the 40s this afternoon. The next trough flattens the H5 ridge on Saturday, with increasing chances for snowfall across the western mountains. With only orographic lift and minimal jet lift, feel the models are overestimating snowfall for the higher Teton Peaks for Saturday.
Under clear skies expect lows tonight will range from around 30 over the west to the lower 20s over the eastern Ozarks. This warming really kicks in on Saturday, as a warm front lifts through the area. Southerly winds, sunny skies and upper level ridging building in will make for a nice warm afternoon with highs generally from 55 to 60.
An upper level closed low will produce cold temperatures aloft that will generate some snow showers and flurries. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 19 47 28 54 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 14 42 26 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 14 42 25 51 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 10 37 21 50 29 / 10 0 0 0 10 TN.
The presence of established cold air pools in many valley locations, in combination with the arrival of the warm front, could spell a light glaze of freezing drizzle along I-90 from Haugan to Missoula, Libby, and the northern Clearwater region tonight and early Saturday morning. Warm air aloft does not last long as a weak cold front will follow the initial push of warm air on Saturday morning.
We couldn't give you the gift of a white Christmas but you may see some flakes fly by late Saturday as a strong cold front pushes south. The first cold front will arrive early on Saturday bringing a chance of precip for the mountains and foothills west of Billings. Most of the precipitation will be rain for the lower elevations with snow above 4000 ft. The snow leve will drop as the second, stronger cold front pushes south Saturday night. This is where the lower elevations will see rain change to snow. Saturdays temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the 40s. overall unsettled and cooler, but no big storms or impacts expected at this time.
Temperatures moderate over the next 24-36 hours with ovenight night lows about 5 to 10 degrees warmer ranging from mid to upper 30s north and west and upper 30s to mid 40s for the RGV and coastal areas. Low's Saturday night warmer yet with model guidance keeping all locations in the CWA at 50 degrees or higher due to the increase in the south winds and cloud cover.
In the meantime, lows tonight will be a bit warmer than last nights, but near normal in the upper teens to mid 20s. Even though it will be a bit warmer under sunny skies, it will depend on the winds. Don't expect winds to become southerly until mid to late afternoon, so stuck with the median values of model guidance for high temperatures, in the low 40s to low 50s.
418 PM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 High pressure will push east of the forecast area tonight as weak zonal flow develops over the area.
The persistence of onshore flow under mostly sunny skies will warm highs into the low and mid 70s Saturday. Saturday night lows will further increase to the upper 40s northward, to the mid 50s near the coast as ridging aloft moves in place.
526 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 More of a mild forecast today with temps warming well into the 40s, even reaching the lower 50s in a few places.
A strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states continues to gradually build ewd into much of the region, as an upper low/trough axis over the mid/srn Atlantic states begins to lift NE. Lingering cloud cover along the back side of this trough pattern continues to affect the far NE half of the area, although these clouds should diminish/exit later this evening. Sfc winds out of the WNW near 15 mph with higher gusts will also become light/var this evening, as temps quickly fall into the lower 20s. These south winds will translate into slightly warmer temps Sun, as highs climb more into the mid 50s for most areas. Moisture then begins to spread back into the cntrl TN Valley Sun night in advance of a cold front approaching from the west, with perhaps a few showers developing by early Mon.
The Christmas warmup continues tomorrow, while a cold front tomorrow night brings another chance of snow, mainly for northern Nebraska. The upper ridge centered over the Rockies that brought seasonably warm weather today slowly broadens tonight, while a surface cold front stalls just off the higher terrain. H85 flow weakens and surface winds relax as very dry air remains over the forecast area other than a cirrus deck rounding the ridge. Trended with the warmer MAV/ECS guidance for max temps west (mid/upper 50s) and closer to the ensemble mean north central (40s). South Dakota takes the brunt of the forcing and moisture convergence, so kept PoP to chc along the Pine Ridge and barely schc across the north.
With ridge building over the area, expect a quiet night with a few higher clouds to start the night. However, the air mass has been moderating and moistening through the day, and as the shallow back door boundary pushes through the area later tonight, there may be some patchy fog tonight behind the wind shift focused on the Buffalo Ridge, and perhaps a lesser chance through the James River valley to lower Missouri River, but likely a lesser chance. Saturday we are under the influence of the larger scale ridge. Light and easterly flow will make for a stable day, and difficult to warm even with some loss of snow today, thus a cooler day for most except for parts of the eastern CWA.
Temperatures have warmed, with 50s to near 60 across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley remain the cool spot in the lower to mid 30s. flat high pressure will move across Colorado overnight with a weak embedded disturbance arrives by morning.
Cold front will drop south Saturday afternoon. RAE Morning discussion: Upper ridge and high pressure will be over the forecast area today. The ridge flattens on Saturday ahead of the next system but the mild and dry weather will continue.
522 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 After another chilly night with low temperatures in the teens, southwesterly winds will bring much warmer conditions to central Illinois on Saturday as afternoon highs top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s. High pressure currently extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to southern Illinois will exit the region tonight, allowing W/SW flow to continue across the KILX CWA.
Tonight expecting some cirrus clouds in SE TX and western LA, which may keep temps above freezing in those areas.
409 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
High pressure will build in from the west tonight with the pressure gradient and winds decreasing. Temperatures will drop into the low/mid 20s inland and upper 20s/lower 30s near the coast along with frost.
637 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
High pressure over the NW Gulf will translate eastward overnight across the Gulf Coast States and reside across the entire region during the day on Sat. MAIN WX CONCERN: It will be the coldest night of the season so far, with sub-freezing temperatures from near 30 degrees or just below across Lake and mainland Volusia counties to the low 30s across Seminole, Orange, Osceola and mainland northern Brevard counties. However, near freezing temps will also be possible farther south through mainland southern Brevard, Okeechobee County and west of I-95 across the Treasure Coast, mainly for more rural/wind-sheltered areas. VFR conditions expected tonight into tomorrow with much cooler/drier airmass in place. Afternoon Min RH values will fall as low as the low to mid 30s across the interior Sat, with winds N/NW around 5-10 mph.
just perfect for the all the Christmas celebrations! High pressure will dominate the local area this evening, resulting in clear skies and chilly low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along areas north of I-10 and in the upper 30s to low 40s along areas south of I-10 (slightly higher along the coastal locations). Low temperatures will be warmer Saturday night, staying in the upper 40s to low 50s range, along with increasing cloud development.
Late this afternoon a warm front continues to ooze east across the region, with temperatures warming nicely behind the front. A band of light snow is expected to accompany those systems, with the latest GEFS data suggesting that the higher accumulations will be over eastern ND and NW MN.
These south winds will translate into slightly warmer temps Sun, as highs climb more into the mid 50s for most areas. Moisture then begins to spread back into the cntrl TN Valley Sun night in advance of a cold front approaching from the west, with perhaps a few showers developing by early Mon.
712 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 Northerly winds will continue to subside overnight, but winds just off the surface are expected to continue to funnel in a cooler air mass.
240 PM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 High pressure will push east of the forecast area tonight as weak zonal flow develops over the area.
Flurries and light snow continue, mainly in the north and east as another lobe of the upper trough moves through the mid state. Temps will warm up a bit Saturday as ridging tries to build in overhead behind the trough, and southerly/southwesterly winds at the surface will help warm the area up.
High pressure to our southwest will shift eastward over the deep south tonight, which will also nose into our area by late tonight. With a deep snowpack on the ground felt conditions were good for overnight lows closer to the NBM's 10th percentile, despite the fact that the center of high pressure will not be centered directly over the region. With snow pack, temperatures will likely run a little cooler than guidance.
238 PM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 Highs reached the mid 50s F across the plains today and even the low 60s F in some areas. Breezy conditions in the high country overnight will cause some blowing snow again in the high mountain passes. Tomorrow, the ridge will flatten and westerly flow aloft will increase. A fast moving trough in the westerly flow aloft will pass north of Colorado Saturday night. This will push a cold front southeast through Colorado.
221 PM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 Upper ridging will continue across the region tonight into Saturday, bringing dry weather and above average temperatures. The ridge will break down tomorrow ahead of the next upper wave, crossing the northern Rockies and Wyoming. The fast moving wave will cross the Dakotas Sat night, bringing a strong cold front and light snow to the CWA.
High pressure over the forecast area will bring light and variable winds generally less than 5 knots area-wide through 18Z Saturday.
343 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 More of a mild forecast today with temps warming well into the 40s, even reaching the lower 50s in a few places.
/Issued 219 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020/ Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from all of us here at the National Weather Service in Tulsa! The trough that brought us much cooler weather than normal continues to slide eastward across the eastern part of the US.
416 PM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 Upper ridging will continue across the region tonight into Saturday, bringing dry weather and above average temperatures. The ridge will break down tomorrow ahead of the next upper wave, crossing the northern Rockies and Wyoming. The fast moving wave will cross the Dakotas Sat night, bringing a strong cold front and light snow to the CWA.
/Issued 236 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020/ High pressure will continue to build in from the west across the CWA tonight. The high center will move east across the outlook area through tomorrow night. 500mb analysis shows a long wave trough moving off the eastern seaboard.
Dewpoints are down in the low single digits and if we can get areas to decouple, temps may drop like a rock, especially in areas that have some snow on the ground. High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast will then begin building into the area tonight with winds shifting back towards the southwest at around 5-10 mph. Highs for the day will be in the lower to mid 40s, much closer to climatological norms.
Late this afternoon a warm front continues to ooze east across the region, with temperatures warming nicely behind the front. A band of light snow is expected to accompany those systems, with the latest GEFS data suggesting that the higher accumulations will be over eastern ND and NW MN. A cooler airmass will exist over the region for Saturday and thus highs will be colder vs today.
To start off the week, temperatures near to slightly above normal as upper ridging builds back into the region. Another strong cold front will move in by the end of the work week. Early this morning: Cold and dry high pressure will remain in control. The dry air, clear skies, and cold advection will be enough to drop morning lows into the lower 20s and upper teens. High pressure centered over the Carolinas Sunday. Deep layer dry air remains in place across the area with temperatures near normal as some weak upper ridging begins building. High clouds will stream in from the NW with a cold front just west of the Appalachians.
A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft continues across much of the Deep South this evening between an upper level trough extending along the Mid-Atlantic states and Eastern Seaboard and ridging aloft over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees warmer (but still chilly) with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows closer to the coast will be in the lower to mid 30s. Highs Sunday should moderate to around 60 degrees to the lower 60s over most locations.
1031 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
/Issued 219 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020/ Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from all of us here at the National Weather Service in Tulsa! The trough that brought us much cooler weather than normal continues to slide eastward across the eastern part of the US. Well above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday, A subtle trough and associated cold front will quickly swing through the area Sunday afternoon. Opted to go with a slightly warmer solution for at least the SE half of the area as it appears temperatures should warm there considerably before the front tempers warming.
232 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Canadian high pressure has moved over the southeast U. Some high cirrus will spread over the region today, however skies should remain primarily partly cloudy but continued on the cold side with highs only in the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. A freeze watch remains in effect tonight across the nature coast for below freezing temperatures.
Very cold temperatures in the mid to upper 20s were observed across the interior already early this morning, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s at the coast. Temperatures will continue to slowly fall through daybreak this morning, with lows in the low to mid 20s across the interior and the upper 20s to near 30 for the coastal areas. A coastal trough will develop along the coast of south and central Florida tonight, with low level moisture beginning to increase across the extreme southeastern portion of the area by Sunday morning. It will be another cold night tonight, with lows in the mid 20s across the interior and around 30 to the lower 30s towards the coast.
Brrr! H8 trough swinging thru with some 5000 ft layer clouds for a couple of hours across the Bluegrass Region. A 1026 mb high pressure centered over Dixie Alley will be the dominating feature with SSW winds advecting some higher llvl temps. Low temps Sat Night will be much warmer with sct-bkn high clouds and llvl waa. Steady southerly winds ahead of our next cold front will mean a warm end to the weekend.
Dry conditions and a gradual warmup are in store for today through Sunday as high pressure tracks to the south.
This will be especially so on Saturday as the upper ridge now over the northern/central Rockies dampens as it moves eastward over the northern/central Plains. Westerly component downslope flow off the high Plains late today will advect over the eastern half of Kansas thru Saturday. A weak cold front will drop southward across Kansas early Sunday as upper troughing develops across the northern Plains. Even so, the modified nature of the airmass will only result in slightly cooler temperatures and still well above climo Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will move south across the region this afternoon and evening. NW flow aloft behind the cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday that will be closer to normal for late December.
In response to the approaching cold front, surface winds Saturday, from the south or southwest, may be gusty; but, winds should remain below Wind Advisory levels.
227 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 An upper trough will cross the area today producing clouds along with scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. High pressure will gradually build into the region for the second half of the weekend.
Otherwise, the afternoon forecast continues on track with overnight temperatures across the are expecting to get down to the low teens in the mountains, teens across northern Georgia, with low 20s further south. /Issued 236 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020/ High pressure will continue to build in from the west across the CWA tonight. The high center will move east across the outlook area through tomorrow night. 500mb analysis shows a long wave trough moving off the eastern seaboard. NListemaa Sunday continues the dry trend with high pressure beginning to slide off the eastern seaboard.
Under clear skies expect lows tonight will range from around 30 over the west to the lower 20s over the eastern Ozarks. This warming really kicks in on Saturday, as a warm front lifts through the area. Southerly winds, sunny skies and upper level ridging building in will make for a nice warm afternoon with highs generally from 55 to 60. A cold front will push through the area later Sunday afternoon and for the most part it will be a dry frontal passage.