Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
First, with an upper ridge pushing into western Montana today, NW flow aloft is keeping a front still over the CWA. Low clouds and a cooler airmass lies to the NE while sunshine and milder conditions to the SW. The big question tonight will be if fog forms between the cold front and the stratus deck. Wednesday, the ridge flattens a bit but moves east and provides another mild day to the area.
After a chilly start to our morning with most temps in the 20s, we'll should be able to recover into the low and mid 50s in most spots.
Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the first of the rain making systems as a trough is noted making its way east through the Great Basin, helping focus a fetch of moisture from the eastern Pacific across the Southern Plains into the Central Plains ahead of a cold front that the trough will drag through Missouri late tonight into Wednesday. However, while moisture values are abnormally high, expectations are that most of the rain will be hit or miss as the lift is a bit broad and not well focused ahead of the cold front. Temperatures behind the cold frontal passage tonight wont be very cold due to the Pacific origin of the airmass behind the front.
136 PM PST Tue Nov 22 2016 Weak high pressure aloft will create slight warming and fair weather through Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Upper level trough extending from the Central Plains through the Southern Rockies to continue moving northeast riding over the strong ridge over Florida. The associated surface cold front, currently stationary over Northwest Texas, is expected to move slowly southeast through Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF are virtually dry, showing some better chances Wed night, while the NAM wants to deepen the pooling moisture Wednesday afternoon with moderate to high pops across the Lower Valley.
340 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area on Thanksgiving day.
KGUY might see occasional MVFR conditions as low clouds linger near the center of the Low over northeast Kansas. As the low kicks out tonight expect all TAF sites to be under mostly clear skies after 06Z.
248 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Upper level low across Kansas this afternoon will decay over time with a trailing trough remaining to our east through Wednesday. To our west, a flatting ridge will edge closer to the central CONUS. After a breezy afternoon, surface cold front will push through the CWFA. A window of perhaps 2-3 hours of breezy (15-20 mph) winds should follow the front becoming light on Wednesday as high pressure settles in.
321 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will slide east and move off the East coast Wednesday.
A strong upper level ridge will retreat westward and flatten in response to a progressive short wave trough moving across the US/Canada border. However, similar thickness values will result in nearly identical temperatures to yesterday if not slightly warmer. Monsoon moisture will remain to the west of the region but will begin to bend more eastward onto the high Plains. The center of the upper ridge is forecast to shift westward over the next few days.
With lower dwpt air arriving combined with strengthening subsidence as high pressure builds in behind the departing front.
satellite shows upper low centered offshore this evening with a southerly jet over the region. The low moves inland across the Pacific northwest later tonight and Friday morning. The track of the low center over Washington will mean higher chances of precipitation across that region. Surface gradients combined with cold advection will result in breezy westerly winds overnight and Friday along with cooler temperatures. Skies will be clearing by afternoon as the low moves east into Idaho.
259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Don't look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge continues to dominate our weather.
321 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Overall synoptic pattern has not changed much although expect the broad upper high to retrograde further West into New Mexico today. With a bit more cloud cover and slightly earlier convective development, temperatures may be 1-2 degrees cooler from yesterday's readings. The upper level high will weaken some on Sat but then strengthen over the cntrl and srn Rockies for Sun into Mon. Over the plains a prefrontal wind shift by midday will scour out the low level moisture with limited cape over the plains. Thus will keep the highest pops over the higher terrain in the aftn with only isold pops along the front range urban corridor. Over the higher terrain here will still be a chc of storms especially along and south of I-70.
A broad and strong mid-to-upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma will continue the hot and dry weather for South Central Texas today and Saturday. Subsidence associated with the high pressure system will maintain a midlevel stable layer over the region to prevent any deep convection from forming today. However, very isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur in the far southeastern Coastal Plains counties on Saturday afternoon with the help of the sea breeze as the ridge begins to weaken and retrograde towards the western half of the United States.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A fairly expansive mid level height center positioned over the southern high plains and extending from southern California to the lower Mississippi Valley will provide a measure of stability and persistence to the local forecast. Fair skies with an occasional smattering of low clouds along with light to moderate east to southeast winds and warmer than normal temps will predominate through the short term. Winds will veer from east today to more southeast on Friday as high pressure reorients slightly.
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 At 3 AM, a weak area of high pressure was located over extreme SW LA. At 850 mb, high pressure was located N MS with a patch of deeper moisture undercutting the ridge over S LA. At 300 mb, a strong upper level high pressure system was centered over NW TX and this feature is sprawling much of the southern U. Convective temperatures cool into the lower 90s but still some weak capping noted in the 750-700 mb layer. The upper level ridge plaguing the region will begin to shift west so feel the lower heights coupled with the lower convective temps and moisture should foster slightly higher rain chances on Saturday.
An upper level trough passing over Western Washington this morning will allow for the possibility for showers and thunderstorms to continue into the early afternoon before activity is expected to taper off.
00Z upper air analysis indicated a 599 dm ridge from KDDC to KAMA. As the stronger PAC NW system moves into the northern Rockies, and eventually the northern Plains this will allow for a surface cold front to move southeast across the CWA.
Have decided to push back the onset of the higher pops. A fairly static large-scale pattern remains, with zonal flow across the northern tier of states (including NY/PA), on the southern periphery of the westerlies and northern periphery of a large, hot upper ridge axis to the south.
The highest heat indices look to be mainly west of I65.
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Flattened upper level ridge was over the area with a short wave moving across southern MAN. Upper ridge axis will move over the area Fri night. Upper level trough off the Pacific northwest coast will move across southern MAN and the forecast area Sat night.
Dirty ridge just to our west through the period, and will have some week upper disturbances drop down the eastern side of the ridge today into tonight. with the highest POPs across the Mid Ohio River Valley. Mainly a bit warmer overnight. Heat indices top out just below advisory criteria this afternoon -- in the mid and upper 90s across the lowlands. The heat wave will continue this weekend with temperatures reaching the lower 90s.
Precipitation chances increase this evening and tonight as subtle waves move across the top of the ridge. the ridge breaks down, zonal flow and eventually slight northwesterly flow returns to the region.
/issued 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A fairly expansive mid level height center positioned over the southern high plains and extending from southern California to the lower Mississippi Valley will provide a measure of stability and persistence to the local forecast. Fair skies with an occasional smattering of low clouds along with light to moderate east to southeast winds and warmer than normal temps will predominate through the short term. Winds will veer from east today to more southeast on Friday as high pressure reorients slightly.
Boundary layer moisture will be on the increase today, evidenced by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s in some of the area. While 850 mb temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday, cloud cover is expected to be a bit more widespread during the day, helping to keep temperatures from soaring well into the 90s. Remaining mid-level moisture will clear the southern border by late Saturday, ending the low rain chances.
A strong upper level ridge continues to be in control of the weather across most of the CONUS keeping conditions hot across the area. Models forecast that this trough will move through the Southern Appalachians later this afternoon.
Low level shear will be maximized near the warm front where a tornado threat will exist. Focus will then shift to Saturday when the cold front tracks eastward across the area. Severe parameters support strong to severe storm potential mainly over the eastern CWA during the afternoon and early evening hours before the cold front finally sweeps through the area.
Basic upper level pattern continues with upper ridge to the west centered over the Plains with a trough to the east over the Atlantic.
323 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 High pressure along the east coast will drift south today and allow a weak cold front to sag south across the central Great Lakes tonight.
Do expect to see TSRA again this afternoon, with the higher chances closer to the coast across the ECP and TLH areas. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the central U. and a trough is just off the Atlantic Coast. in the lower levels. Surface ridging over the Central CONUS begins to retreat eastward throughout the short term. With a generally weak flow, this will cause a lack of energy needed to push the sea breeze front inland and so will lead to convection initiating later in the afternoon and keep the highest chances for rain in FL.
/Issued 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND SATURDAY AS BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TROF.
Upper ridge holds with 850mb temperatures in the 30c+range over western Nebraska again today. Similar scenario with wave topping ridge and moving east across forecast area providing lift to break the strong cap. Current forecast trends are hinting at a bit warmer temperatures for Saturday.
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure will control the weather today in Southwest Lower Michigan.
Weak high pressure over nrn WI will move into srn WI later today and tonight. Beforehand, a weak frontal boundary between the high and the mesohigh over north central IL will pass south through srn WI later this morning. High temps in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s over the srn half of the CWA is yielding heat index values of 95-100F over the heat advisory area and 100-105F in the excessive heat warning area.
104 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 High pressure along the east coast will drift south through Friday. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.
252 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Warm upper level anticyclone centered out in the central plains with the belt of westerlies up across northern tier of U. Interstate 40 northward could see a few storms just before noon with the higher pops during the afternoon eastern areas and in the Upper Cumberland region.
This is despite their being a weak trough from east central Nebraska to west central Kansas. Upper ridge otherwise remains in control with 597dam 500mb heights in its center.
The combination of highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints around 70 on Friday will push heat index values to around 100 in some areas, but still below advisory criteria. After a couple days of dry weather prevailing across the entire forecast area, we will see a return of thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon as instability increases and a weak wave moves southeast around the upper ridge. Dominant upper level ridge will flatten out through time with the core shifting to the west as disturbances drop southeast into the Ohio Valley.
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND SATURDAY AS BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TROF.
Warm upper level anticyclone centered out in the central plains with the belt of westerlies up across northern tier of U. Interstate 40 northward could see a few storms just before noon with the higher pops during the afternoon eastern areas and in the Upper Cumberland region.
There will be some daily differences with the path of the storms based on the placement of the main upper ridge that is in place over the Arklatex region region right now.
700 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 High pressure along the east coast will drift south today and allow a weak cold front to sag south across the central Great Lakes tonight.
Thunderstorms are not even expected over the higher terrain this afternoon/evening.
Have decided to push back the onset of the higher pops.
Weak upper trough over the west coast and slightly cooler temperatures most areas this morning. High temperatures will warm slightly today as the trough lifts to the northeast over high pressure pushing in from the south. More warming is expected on Saturday as the upper trough shifts into the Great Basin and the large high pressure ridge over the central U.
But looking at the model thermal profiles, we still have plenty of warm air in the lower atmosphere. The Heat Index that results from all of this still ends up getting into at 95-110 range across the forecast area, with the higher end values from Austin and Charles City, over toward Dubuque. Most signals suggest that there will not be enough of a short wave trough or other such disturbance to help drive development in the presence of the warm cap still in place over much of the area.
A warming trend will continue into the weekend with many inland areas a few to several degrees above normal while onshore flow keeps conditions cooler near the coast.
146 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Aviation A weak cold front will move slowly south tonight triggering additional thunderstorms. The cold front will continue to slip southward into Saturday so lingering thunderstorms are possible south of I-94 Friday morning. Otherwise hot and humid conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as this is a really weak cold front.
An upper trough will move inland across the Pacific NW today allowing for a strong diffluent SW flow to develop across the area. The cold front is expected to reach the North Dakota border early Saturday morning when the upper trough moves through the forecast area. The cold front and upper trough moves to the east Saturday morning leaving most of the area in a dry slot.
An upper low is centered off the northern Oregon coast, driving southwesterly flow over our area.
The upper ridge remains in place and heat indices over much of the warning area are indeed above 110 and other places as of 3 PM are very close. Given the low chances for precip in any given area and the low overall confidence in the precip forecast, I blended slight chance pops over the areas of concern mainly after 06z through the end of the tonight period.
A cold front will cross through the region late Friday afternoon. The weak ridging over the zones will come to an end as a low pressure trof over the West Coast approaches the Rockies Friday. The associated cold front will cross the Rockies and move into Cut Bank during the late Friday afternoon. Dynamics associated with the trof will at first be directed towards the north and models develop weak lift across the Hi-Line tonight and early Friday, then rather strong lift by Friday afternoon across most of the region. Low level winds will strengthen late Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the trof and remain brisk after frontal passage into Saturday morning.
Impressive, broad ~600 dm 500 hPa heights over the southern Plains will eventually lower and retrograde back to the west this weekend; however, this will have no short-term impact on local temperatures as the thermal ridge continues to bulge eastward across the central Plains.
/issued 259 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/ Don't look for much to change into this weekend as the upper ridge continues to dominate our weather.
These numbers are pretty impressive for the local area although model surface dew points are forecast to reach the lower to middle 70s which is unlikely. Will increase pops into the low chance category this morning and keep the chances going through early evening.
Mid/upper level high pressure center will remain north of S TX, which will maintain a deep E-SE flow aloft.
Upper level pattern begins with an upper trough cutting off to an upper low east of the region, with upper ridges to the east and west. Weak surface ridging will be over the region, providing light winds in the morning, and allowing the sea breeze boundaries to move inland in the afternoon. Very dry air will move into the region ahead of the upper low on Saturday, with precipitable water values around 1. Models have sped up the timing of the upper low and are further northward compared to yesterday.
Entrenched high pressure will result in very hot and dry weather conditions across the area through the weekend.
Improved boundary layer moisture and instability with a marginally cooler mid level should be more conducive for showers and storms, although limited deep layer shear should keep the threat of severe isolated.
410 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 In the very near term, a few isolated, outflow enhanced showers and weak thunderstorms may be found as far east as the highway 83 corridor, which somewhat mirrors a few recent HRRR runs for the early morning reflectivity trends. Hot conditions are forecast once again today as a strong 700 mb ridge influences the central High Plains. Thunderstorms generally have a better chance of occurrence each day going forward, as the atmosphere become less stable in the mid levels and the 700 mb hot ridge begins to weaken. Other than that, VFR conditions are forecast for another day as a dominant upper high influences th eweather.
An upper low moving through the Pacific Northwest will drag a dry cold front through the region.
However, still expect clouds to dissipate by mid to late morning, allowing for plenty of time for sunshine to produce high temps in the low to mid 90s again today. Low temps will remain very mild again tonight, with some cooler locations where any evening storms develop. Overall, temps should bottom out in the low to mid 70s again tonight.
Dirty ridge just to our west through the period, and will have some week upper disturbances drop down the eastern side of the ridge today into tonight. with the highest POPs across the Mid Ohio River Valley. The amount of instability today will depend on how thick the high clouds remain this morning. Mainly a bit warmer overnight. Heat indices top out just below advisory criteria this afternoon -- in the mid and upper 90s across the lowlands. The heat wave will continue this weekend with temperatures reaching the lower 90s.
338 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Upper ridge centered west of the MS river and extending eastward across GA will continue as the dominant weather feature through the short term. except maybe any remnant boundaries and the persistent lee side trough.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath a ridge of high pressure aloft.
A strong upper ridge stacked over the southern High Plains (NE New Mexico and NW Texas) in the 599 to 600 decameter height range per 00Z 500 mb plots. Despite strong subsidence under the ridge, strong daytime heating (with highs warming to 100 degrees at the Huntsville Int'l Airport) and 98 at the Decatur and Muscle Shoals airports respectively, and dewpoints in the lower 70s resulted in a rather unstable atmosphere. Low temperatures tonight will only cool into the lower 70s, thanks to a prevailing southerly flow around high pressure east of the southeast coast.
With dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s all day, heat indices will range from 105 to 112, with the highest readings north of I-44. A slight westward shift in the upper ridge may allow for slightly better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms across the eastern Ozarks, though again, most locations will remain dry.
The morning water vapor imagery reveals that the center of the upper ridge has retrograded a bit W into Wrn OK/NW TX.
/issued 311 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across the south central and southeast United States will allow moisture across the Gulf of Mexico to move westward into northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande valley tonight into Friday. This will continue to provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters tonight into Friday as well as across the coastal sections of the CWA Friday as outflow from convection offshore the lower Texas coast moves inland.
103 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the north this morning. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend while an inland trough prevails. Temps will bottom out in the lower to mid 70s inland with upper 70s at the coast. A mid/upper lvl ridge of high pressure will extend across the southeastern United States this weekend, supporting a dry northerly wind and considerably less shower/thunderstorm coverage.
The higher dewpoints have contributed to low convective inhibition around and north of the frontal boundary. On Saturday upper trof begins ejecting toward south central Canada, with a trailing cold front heading east over the CWA.
For the sites with fog, expect improvement by 13z, but for areas with the low ceilings, improvement will be a little later in the 14-15z time frame. Basic upper level pattern continues with upper ridge to the west centered over the Plains with a trough to the east over the Atlantic.
413 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Modest fetch of monsoon moisture remains across CO on western fringes of the upper high positioned across the central plains. The upper trof will move across the northern U. Rockies tonight which will allow a cold front to advance southward towards CO late in the period.
403 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A strong high pressure system centered off the mid Atlantic coast will continue to cause a southerly flow of hot and humid air across our area today. A weak cold front will move south across lower Michigan today and into northern portions of Indiana and Ohio tonight, possibly causing scattered thunderstorms in our area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, which combined with the high humidity, will result in heat index readings over 100 across much of the area. Temps should be a few degrees warmer than yday with more aftn sunshine.
A zonal band of westerlies will remain over the northern CONUS and southern Canada, while the subtropical ridge holds across the southern CONUS.
The axis of strong high pressure will shift over or just south of the forecast area today through Saturday.
1039 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front tonight into Friday morning.