Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
More active weather is expected for this weekend, with the approach of a cold front. High pressure south of the area will provide generally tranquil weather today and tonight, with near normal temperatures for early summer. An upper level short wave trough crossing this afternoon is timed well to take advantage of about a KJ/kg of CAPE to help pop an isolated shower or thunderstorm in far northern portions of the forecast area.
However, an upper level trough of low pressure will combine with daytime heating to bring scattered to isolated showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. The upper trough will cross in the afternoon, with rapidly decreasing cloud cover and shower activity expected to give way to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions in the evening. Ill-defined warm front will lift across the area on Friday.
Model consensus keeps the remainder of the area dry through this evening, although a modest mid- level trough approaching from the west will draw the front north into central Arkansas by afternoon and an isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out near the I-30/I-40 corridors. Through the remainder of the period, persistent ridging across the eastern Gulf at the surface and aloft places us in a favorable location for sustained southerly flow and moisture advection.
237 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region tonight and Thursday, then lift out by Friday.
/Today through Friday Night/ Weak low pressure aloft atop moisture rich sly sfc flow will allow for enhanced sea breeze convection today. Weak low pressure will continue to linger over TX/LA into Friday, with the sea breeze active again, bringing another round of convection. However, with less coverage expected, temps look to run a bit warmer than today.
Little should change in the overall environment between now and tonight, so some risk of severe is expected in the evening followed by a much lesser severe risk period of efficient rainfall storms as the cold front drops into the area overnight.
1058 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Upper ridging continues across the northern Great Plains, with the main axis now crossing the CWA. A low amplitude trough is crossing the Pac NW into the northern Rockies and a series of waves are embedded within the WSW flow, crossing Idaho to Wyoming. As the upper flow across the CWA transitions into the WSW direction behind the ridge access, chances for storms will increase from west to east tonight through Thursday. Return flow sets up Fri night, with a thermal ridge moving into the region for the weekend.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 68 86 69 86 / 30 30 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 87 68 86 / 20 10 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 82 65 86 67 86 / 20 10 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 61 84 65 84 / 20 10 20 10 20.
The axis of development will occur along a theta-e gradient boundary associated with an upper trough.
208 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A cold front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will cross the region overnight, exiting across New Brunswick late. Upper level low is present well to our northwest.
1109 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region tonight and Thursday, then lift out by Friday.
1119 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region tonight and Thursday, then lift out by Friday.
This trend will prevail through Friday prior to a cold frontal passage. Weak high pressure will build in for the weekend with slight drying, reducing thunderstorm coverage.
Initially weak ridging will be in place across the area however this ridge will be shunted further south ahead of an approaching trough. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement early on that this trough will be positively tilted across southern CA early on.
CAMs suggest convection will be triggered along the higher terrain to the west and pushed eastward into the Catawba region by the late afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Things will being to dry out and warm up on Friday as the longwave trof over eastern North America gradually shifts eastward, and heights begin to build aloft.
Mid level ridging will stretch across the FL peninsula into the Gulf while troughing will be located just to our north. At the surface, high pressure will be anchored in the northeast Gulf with moist southerly flow and PW around 2 inches. An arching plume of moisture will ride the western portion of the ridge from the northwest Gulf and east through our area.
A warm and muggy night tonight will transition to a slightly cooler day tomorrow. The subtropical ridge begins to build into the region accompanied by a surge of Saharan Dust.
Little should change in the overall environment between now and tonight, so some risk of severe is expected in the evening followed by a much lesser severe risk period of efficient rainfall storms as the cold front drops into the area overnight. A surface to 850 mb front should be in the vicinity of the cwa with weak high pressure just to he north of the area over western NE.
It appears central and eastern MN has the lowest chance for rain with this system as the nocturnal activity Thursday night weakens before arrival and then redevelopment occurs to the southeast Friday. Increasing southeasterly flow will bring warmer and more humid air northward, bringing temperatures back to around 90.
Upper level trough moving out of the region this evening. Trough and front brought breezy to windy conditions this afternoon. Upper ridge builds in Thursday with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds. The ridge holds over the area into Friday with another mostly sunny and warm day. Slightly cooler this afternoon (80s to lower 90s) as a weak cold front pushes east of the region. Breezy to windy today behind the front, strongest in the lower Columbia Basin/Gorge and Kittitas Valley. Similar temps (80s to lower 90s) with lighter winds as ridging builds back over the region. Friday will be the warmest day (upper 80s to possibly near 100) even though ridge flattens a bit with the approach of the next front and upper low that will impact the weekend.
248 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A broad mid/upper trough will be over the area to start the day, with a weak front currently across Middle TN and identified by a dewpoint gradient. As the front moves across the area this afternoon, PoPs will drop off from west to east as drier air builds in as the 850 mb flow turns NW ahead of a weak low level ridge. By 00Z, the dsurface front and the mid/upper trough axis will be to our east, and we should have a dry night with mostly clear skies. With extensive cloud cover expected through the morning followed by partial clearing in the afternoon, highs will be mainly in the lower 80s.
1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020 As the upper low continues to slowly push southward through the area, current radar imagery shows a line of showers and thunderstorms from the CXO/IAH area southwestward. The middle to upper level low that is slowly rotating across the region will keep moderate to high rain chances in place through this period. Most of the action should wane before lunch with scatted shower/isolated storm activity as this weak coastal synoptic scale boundary lifts northward as a warm front with the help of daytime heating. Late morning into early afternoon clearing skies may also allow for the development of a late afternoon sea breeze that could interact with old convective outflow or the warm front. tomorrow is forecast to be a few degrees warmer than today; average middle 80s.
We will remain under the mid/upper-level trough across the Ohio Valley today. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s, but dew points remain fairly comfortable in the upper 50s to near 60. Fair weather overnight, mostly clear and temperatures a little more mild, falling into the low to middle 60s. A weak cold front will approach from the Midwest over the weekend, though it will likely stall out and remain north of the region.
More active weather is expected for this weekend, with the approach of a cold front. High pressure south of the area will provide generally tranquil weather today and tonight, with near normal temperatures for early summer. An upper level short wave trough crossing this afternoon is timed well to take advantage of about a KJ/kg of CAPE to help pop an isolated shower or thunderstorm in far northern portions of the forecast area. Nicest day in the period will be Friday as s/w ridging progresses through the region with temperatures rising to above normal levels. The weekend has shifted to more of an unsettled look from previous forecasts as models are converging on a s/w trof crossing and associated slow moving cold front.
Thursday will be mostly dry during the day, as an upper level ridge moves into the Northland. Temperatures Thursday will be warmer, with highs in the lower 80s expected. An upper level trough is expected to move down from Canada, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as we move into Friday. The best chances for stronger storms are in northwest WI starting in the early afternoon where the highest values of MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg), moisture, and upper level forcing will coincide.
Just to our northwest, a surface cold front continues to drop south toward the area. With some uncertainty on the low clouds clearing, high temps may struggle to reach the l-m80s, but will stick close to this based on suggested blended guidance. The mid to upper level ridge will begin to build across the southeast on Friday, and will bring a series of smaller upper waves from the central and western Gulf northeast through the lower MS and TN valleys.
The reason is the deep layer ridge is sitting over South Central Florida this morning, but it is drifting north creating regime changes the next couple days. For today, the subtropical ridge will set up across the middle of the state, creating light east southeast flow in the southern half of the area. Friday will see the subtropical ridge move even further north, again focusing convection near the coast.
with upper level high pressure anchored to our west and modest northerly flow aloft in place. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs generally in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will only drop off into the lower 70s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.
With less precip coverage and decreasing cloud cover, temperatures should be a degree or two warmer versus yesterday, and the Nashville metro could hit the 90 degree mark this afternoon.
The rest of the week and weekend will be characterized by a return of warmer temperatures across the region and storms confined to the higher terrain and adjacent plains.
205 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A cold front is moving through eastern Montana early this morning with showers and thunderstorms occurring over parts of the forecast area. The front will move to the east this morning and an upper trough will be over the region today. An upper ridge on Friday will bring clear skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s.
253 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region tonight and Thursday, then lift out by Friday.
Friday will be a little cooler, about 10 degrees, with some afternoon and evening convection mainly over the southern part of the CWA closer to another weak impulse diving to the south of the area.
Today: Quiet conditions are expected as we move under the upper level ridge. Mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds will help most of the area get into the low 80s.
358 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Water vapor and IR Satellite show the overall synoptic pattern shifting as troughing moves east and ridging starts to build into the area. This will set our area up for potential severe weather with a thermal ridge over northern Missouri and dewpoints into the low to mid 70s ahead of the boundary. This strong WAA in the low level along with convergence ahead of the boundary appears to be enough to break the capping inversion over northern MO by the late afternoon.
520 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region today, then lift out by Friday.
At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to slide east into the central Dakotas this afternoon. Convection is forecast to develop with afternoon heating across SD near the cold front and continue east/southeast late Thursday night into northeast Nebraska sustained along the nose of a veered 50kt low-level jet. Convection may continue into the morning hours Friday which creates some uncertainty to destabilization for Friday afternoon in regards to the advancing cold front.
At 9z, a near vertically stacked cutoff low was located near James Bay with upper level troughing extending SW to over the OH and TN Valleys. Meanwhile, a surface cold front arced SE from the low into New Brunswick and then S and W through the Mid-Atlantic states to over SE KY. The upper level trough axis, which has been lingering nearby for the last several days, and an associated vort max will finally cross the area this afternoon. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s. An increasing SW return flow develops on Friday sending a warm front across the area through the day. Given the synoptic-scale subsidence under the ridge, the precip potential will likely be minimal to nil across most of the area.
Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the interior through late week with cooler temperatures closer to the coast in response to persistent onshore flow.
1050 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extends westward across Central Florida, resulting in a gradual increase in easterly flow across the Keys. Lower level ridging is now aligned across South Florida and the steering flow is gentle to moderate out of the east. Short Term Update - Surface winds will continue to gradually increase this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts further northward. However, given the lack of prominent nearby or upstream boundaries, background ridging, and dry air aloft, coverage will remain slight at best. A ridge across Central Florida will continue to shift northwards over the next 24 hours.
A broad mid/upper trough will be over the area to start the day, with a weak front currently across Middle TN and identified by a dewpoint gradient. As the front moves across the area this afternoon, PoPs will drop off from west to east as drier air builds in as the 850 mb flow turns NW ahead of a weak low level ridge. By 00Z, the dsurface front and the mid/upper trough axis will be to our east, and we should have a dry night with mostly clear skies. With extensive cloud cover expected through the morning followed by partial clearing in the afternoon, highs will be mainly in the lower 80s.
Hot temperatures forecast again today in the lower 90s near the coast and climbing into the M-U90s inland. The Atlantic ridge axis is situated across the south-central FL peninsula.
Upper level ridging has begun to build back over the PNW this early morning, with most of the forecast area under clear skies. Today, ridge will continue to build over the region with northwesterly flow aloft, leading to dry and warm conditions. Friday, ridge will begin to flatten as a weak surface cold front approaches the region. Though the ridge will flatten, temperatures will still be hot, generally upper 80s to 90s, and possibly near 100 across portions of the lower Columbia Basin. A few showers will be possible overnight Friday over the WA Cascades as the cold front crosses the forecast area.
717 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region today, then lift out by Friday.
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Water vapor and IR Satellite show the overall synoptic pattern shifting as troughing moves east and ridging starts to build into the area. This will set our area up for potential severe weather with a thermal ridge over northern Missouri and dewpoints into the low to mid 70s ahead of the boundary. This strong WAA in the low level along with convergence ahead of the boundary appears to be enough to break the capping inversion over northern MO by the late afternoon.
However as the ridge axis slips north a prevailing east and southeast flow begins to filter into the southern counties. 8 inch range with the higher amounts south. High pressure with a relaxed gradient reaches across the waters for the next few days with winds less than 15 knots.
More active weather is expected for this weekend, with the approach of a cold front. The upper level short wave trough approaching the middle Ohio valley has buckled the front back over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalchians. The high will eventually build toward the area from the southwest later today. High pressure south of the area will provide generally tranquil weather today and tonight, with near normal temperatures for early summer. An upper level short wave trough crossing this afternoon is timed well to take advantage of about a KJ/kg of CAPE to help pop an isolated shower or thunderstorm in far northern portions of the forecast area.
943 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A cold front will pass offshore tonight and stall south of the area on Thursday. The cold front is slowly tracking thru ern CT and LI this aftn. The cooler MAV/MET across the outlying areas has been blended in with the NBM to lower temps in these areas.
Main concern with this trof for tonight is the sfc front and its timing.
Kendrick On Friday evening, a weak short wave moving onto the Central Plains will be rotating around an upper level ridge. The upper level ridge will become suppressed and shift east which will allow for this potential convection.
High temperatures will be cooler across the plains tomorrow afternoon in response to the daytime convection, with values in the upper 80s and lower 90s expected.
340 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A warm front is moving northeast across Missouri into Illinois this afternoon. Carney The short wave trough currently over eastern Colorado will phase with a second trof over the Midwest on Friday. This combined wave will push a cold front southeast through Iowa Friday afternoon and into Missouri and Illinois Friday night.
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper-level trough will exit the region tonight, followed by a surface cold front tonight.
southerly winds were observed with dewpoints running around 3 to to 15 deg warmer compared to this time yesterday. These conditions should aid in afternoon temperatures today warming close to yesterdays highs to perhaps a deg or so warmer.
459 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A frontal boundary located roughly over the TN Valley has pushed further south and currently stretches off to the southwest from low pressure over the Mid Atlantic, across the southern Appalachian, then back into the MidSouth. Aloft, a trough axis is moving through the Ohio Valley from low pressure up over Quebec. The trough has kicked off a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our northeast. Short wave ridging builds into the region overnight. In between these two features, ridging will build in across the Mississippi Valley.
Overall, the cloud cover helped to limit low level destabilization today, but there was more significant heating in the Pine Belt region where low level lapse rates are steepest and more supportive stronger downdrafts - so will maintain a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts along/s of the Highway 84 corridor, especially given the unseasonably strong low level flow. The strong eastern CONUS trough responsible for the recent active weather pattern is forecast to lift out and leave behind a general weakness in the subtropical ridge over the ArkLaTex region while heights build over the Lower MS Valley region.
Afternoon thunderstorms are possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra and northern Tehachapi's today and on Friday.
Focus remains on storm chances Fri/Fri night as warm front passes during the day and cold front then sweeps in Fri night. Best surge of increasing theta E air and resulting increase in instability starts mid to late morning as the warm front moves SW to NE. Some models continue to hint at a fair amount of capping in the warm sector which could hinder any development in the afternoon/eve hours until the cold front arrives after 3-6Z Sat.
The moisture axis /quasi-stalled front looks like it could meander slightly more northward for Friday so have trended the chance pops across mainly north GA and still kept slight mention for farther south with other diurnal forcing potential despite the broad ridging south of the region.
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 We will transition out of NW flow, with high pressure over the southeast U.
By late evening most of this activity should end, but some lingering showers or storms could last all night long as the low level airmass remains moist and weak disturbances continue to move across the area on the backside of the upper trough that will be departing off to the east of the area. Lows tonight remaining quite muggy, mainly in the lower 70s over inland areas and mid to upper 70s closer to and along the coast. On Friday, the weather pattern begins to change somewhat as weak deeper layer ridging begins to develop across our area. High temperatures will primarily be in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the entire area, with the cooler temps over the far northwest and also along the immediate coast (where even a few mid 80s for highs will be possible).
Low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 60s across the area, near or just slightly below NBM numbers.
Currently a few isolated showers and thunderstorms forming along the higher terrain of the southern Cumberland Plateau and Southern Appalachian Mountains. Expect coverage of storms to remain pretty isolated this afternoon as the trough continues to move off to the east taking away some of the moisture in the atmosphere. the lowest lying areas within the eastern Tennessee Valley have the best chance to see patchy fog development, especially if they received rain over the past couple of days. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Deep South will extend northward into/through the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians, well westward into the Plains states.
Ridging aloft. The upper level ridging will keep temperatures warm along with heat indices close to or at 110 degrees. Sat through next Thu: Ridging aloft continues in place until Mon when it shifts south and begin to break down in response to an upper low that moves into New England that troughs down the eastern sea board and over the east Gulf and FL during mid to late week. Then moisture begins to increase and along with upper level troughiness showers and storms will become scattered to at times numerous.
Upper trof is still expected to progress across the state through tonight, with trailing sfc front currently pushing into the western Missouri valley.
Strong S/SW winds will continue this afternoon and this evening through sunset, in response to a 996 mb lee cyclone deepening near Goodland. Along the associated well established lee trough, scattered high-based convection is expected from NW Kansas, and along the CO/KS border by 7 pm.
Still expect to see some isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms this afternoon as the trough continues to slowly exit the area region. Patchy fog development is expected in the early morning hours, with the highest chances to see fog being in the sheltered valley locations. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 69 87 69 / 20 40 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 88 68 87 68 / 10 20 10 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 88 67 87 67 / 10 20 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 85 65 84 65 / 10 10 10 30 40.
Strong S/SW winds will continue this afternoon and this evening through sunset, in response to a 996 mb lee cyclone deepening near Goodland. Along the associated well established lee trough, scattered high-based convection is expected from NW Kansas, and along the CO/KS border by 7 pm. A surface to 850 mb front should be in the vicinity of the cwa with weak high pressure just to he north of the area over western NE.