Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moisture transport was interacting with a cold front and associated upper disturbance, forcing this band of rain to continue spreading across the Ozarks. Surface winds will switch to the north bringing cooler air to the Ozarks. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front is moving through the region.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR OKEMAH TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS.
/ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE H5 ANALYSIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITH THE INTERSECTION OF THE ABOVE FEATURES.
1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 High pressure will be quick to build in behind this morning's thunderstorm complex with quick clearing of rain and low clouds from north to south, although there could be a rather thick shield of cirrus coming off a closed upper low over the TX high plains.
830 AM PDT MON APR 13 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
707 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 A WINDY START TO THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY MILD TODAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST/WEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WEST AND NUDGE TO THE UPPER 70S EAST. 75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST. WARMER HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
VERY WARM AND LOCALLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A HUGE COOL DOWN DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO IN THE EARLY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG COLD FRONT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 3500 FEET MSL AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
626 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 High pressure will be quick to build in behind this morning's thunderstorm complex with quick clearing of rain and low clouds from north to south, although there could be a rather thick shield of cirrus coming off a closed upper low over the TX high plains.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST COUPLED WITH AN SO PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
/ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW AIDED BY WEST TEXAS MCV. MENTIONED UPPER LOW STILL PROGD TO LIFT OUT TOMORROW AND GIVE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN OLD MEXICO TO MOVE E THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A TSTM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS. /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WAS BRINGING SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE FOUR STATE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST TEXAS BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF TODAY WILL BE LIFTING BACK AS A WARM FRONT.
240 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL FOR SUNDAY. WITH THIS HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NRN NC BY DAWN SUNDAY. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WFO RNK FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT QUIET AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST BRINGING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GOING CALM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO FACILITATE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. FROST IN THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING IN THE EAST WILL BE PREVALENT TONIGHT SO DON'T FORGET TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION BEFORE THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION STEADILY NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WEST COAST UPPER TROF WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE GOOD NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH IS SUCH THAT A SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY NOT ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. DYNAMIC COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY/COOLER NORTHEASTERLY LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SET UP A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A RATHER SHARP N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WI ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR WITH SLEET/SNOW FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 32 DEGREES.
257 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015 A large area of high pressure centered near Arkansas will drift east to near the Carolinas by 12z/7am Sunday. An expansive area of dry air associated with the high will remain across IL tonight.
THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN A FEW LOW LYING AREAS. WHILE LOCATIONS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WILL BE WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WARM ANOTHER 4-5C TOMORROW SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. BUT WINDS ARE WEAKER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
Further south, where cloud cover will move in earlier in the afternoon, highs will be in the lower 60s.
237 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
335 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) Latest analysis indicates a weak ridge over the southeastern US with southwesterly flow aloft across west Texas. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than the last couple days. mainly in the lower to mid 50s.
1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015 18Z TAF issuance Strong east to southeasterly winds will continue through the period as high pressure moves off to the east.
HOWEVER WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BECOMING MORE SWRLY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
333 PM PDT SAT APR 4 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER TEENS DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW 30S ON RIDGETOPS AND IN MORE OPEN TERRAIN AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY. A CARRYOVER FROM THE RIDGING EXITING AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
122 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY. GOING TO SEE WINDS FALL OFF FAST THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BRINGS LIGHT/CALM WINDS AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S EAST OF THE RIDGE. AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO FLAT RIDGING WE WILL GET INTO WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WEEK.
VERY DRY AIRMASS RESIDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN LIMITED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSIDERABLY WARMER TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1030 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MODELS LOOKED A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.
OR ABOVE FREEZING. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA DIRECTED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRUIT GROWERS AND GARDENERS IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND OTHER WEST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST UT VALLEYS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN ALERT TO POSSIBILITY OF BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.
326 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WAS BRINGING SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE FOUR STATE FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST TEXAS BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF TODAY WILL BE LIFTING BACK AS A WARM FRONT.
COOL UPPER LOW PRES AREA OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY WEATHER OVER REGION FOR THROUGH MON. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE AND WED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SE AND INTO CALIFORNIA. A RATHER VIGOROUS AND COOL UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MON. THE LOW WILL SWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ROTATING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE N CALIF AND S OREGON LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
AT 18Z, THE COLD FRONT HAD CROSSED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY HALF OUR AREA, BISECTING THE CWA FROM PANAMA CITY THROUGH VALDOSTA.
224 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN ACROSS THE N GULF JUST S OF THE 60NM COASTAL MARINE ZONE. THIS IS ABOUT THE FURTHEST SOUTH THE HIGH WILL BUILD. SHIFTING MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
103 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 /ISSUED 935 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH JUST A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LEFT TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW READINGS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
343 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL H9 WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS TONIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 TO 50KTS BY 06Z.
DID ADD TS FOR TOMORROW AS WE ADD THE SFC WARM FRONT INTO THE MIX. COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. OVERALL DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH PRECIP BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
148 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.
242 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WARMER TRENDS IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL SEE A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE NORTH WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. THE REST OF THE FA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK EASTWARD AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THEN CENTRAL PLAINS.
129 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WARMER TRENDS IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL SEE A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE NORTH WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. THE REST OF THE FA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN.
406 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH AND WE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW 70S. NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND SLIDE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
411 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 COOLER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND WARMER AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS SUN NT. THE ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS SQUEEZING OUT THIS MOISTURE SW TO NE ON MON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THAT SCOOTS THROUGH MON NT. USED A BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS TUE WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE LOWER MAV VERSUS THE HIGHER MET. PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES AND AT SITES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIRTY RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR AREA TODAY WILL BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. WITH SOME MIXED AND RAIN AND SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RSB /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 IN TEH MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID IN THE S.
554 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE RIDGE MAY SEE DE-COUPLING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. MODELS STILL INDICATE DEW POINTS WILL MODERATE TONIGHT/SOME MIXING AND GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK EASTWARD AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THEN CENTRAL PLAINS.
BOTH GFS AND WRF INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CLOSER TO WEAK S/WV TROUGH SO WILL EXPAND POPS UP TO KANSAS BORDER PER COORDINATION.
103 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND HAS CLEARED OUT SKIES QUICKLY TONIGHT.
206 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
FINALLY THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WILL START AT MIDNIGHT AND GO THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WITH AN EVENTUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING AS LEE- SIDE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. BUT WITH SHIFT OF TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS NOW EXITED EAST OF THE STATE. A STRONG SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION UNDER NW FLOW. THIS CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER DURING THE DAY UNDER THIS NW FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN KY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING SEVERAL STATES TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL START ITS TREK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES WARMER THAT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE AND ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS LACKING AND AS SUCH THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS TN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY THAT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED HERE IN THE EAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 68 50 68 / 0 10 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 66 46 68 / 0 0 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 67 47 67 / 0 0 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 65 39 66 / 0 0 20 50 NC.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH. THIS WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
247 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CWA TONIGHT.
303 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
BREEZY/WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD. TURNING SHARPLY COOLER AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST THE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST.
614 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN AND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL RETREAT NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES.
342 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL INTO THE GULF BUT STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TOMORROW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOUND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT. TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE S PLAINS BY SUN AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MON THROUGH WED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. DEEP TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PAC IN THE ROCKIES TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER KEYS SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS RECEIVED AT LEAST A TENTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL STRETCH UNDER THE FORCES OF FRONTOLYSIS AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION WILL PERSIST DESPITE PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLUX.
316 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GENERATE A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM THE SW AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Ridge of high pressure centered along the Missouri/Arkansas border will move rapidly east and should be over North Carolina by 12Z Sunday morning. This southerly flow will help keep temperatures warmer tonight than they were last night. MOS guidance is about 10 degrees warmer than lows were this morning, and this looks very reasonable.
MODELS DEPICT THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MY NORTH TONIGHT. SOUTHWARD EXTENT UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO MY NORTHERN COUNTIES.
128 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 COOLER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND WARMER AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR EASTER. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES AND AT SITES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.