Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Initially good subsidence across our area due to upper ridging centered down along Gulf Coast. I see a very weak short wave that will come out of Arkansas this morning that will be working through the ridge today and across our area so have a small pop basically for western areas of Midddle Tennessee. 596 decameter upper ridge seemingly strengthens over southeastern U.
456 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Currently - The last shreds of weak ridge axis lies across South Florida. Lower level ridge is beginning to slowly arc northward towards the CONUS, but had enough presence to minimize activity moving off of South Florida. Temperatures are only slowly falling through the lower and mid 80s WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. Forecast - The ridge axis will dissipate today, however another high cell over the eastern United States will spread southeast and southward over the next couple of days. The lower level ridge axis and associated drier lower level air, will continue to migrate northward and rain chances should edge upwards. Lower level moisture associated with an early season cold front will begin moving into South Florida and Keys late Wednesday.
Otherwise, for today we will be watching a cold front progress eastward across the CWA.
A warm front will lift north towards the region as upper level short wave energy moves east across the central Plains. Dew points will steadily climb through the 60s and into the lower 70s. We are mainly looking at high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. That short wave trough will then track across northern Missouri tonight. That warm front will have lifted north of the Missouri Ozarks by Wednesday.
329 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Fair and pleasant weather continues today before turning warmer and more humid through mid week.
Temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 70's inland and upper 70's closer to the coast tonight.
614 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will build along the east coast today. High pressure will move east of the region later Wednesday.
139 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will expand eastward over the area tonight then move off the east coast on Wednesday.
638 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region through mid week. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week.
Models are in fairly good agreement in cold front inching southeast into north central Kansas Wednesday afternoon with mid-level lapse rates in the 7-8 C/km range and mixed-layer CAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of it.
As the high departs, southerly flow will set up and begin ushering in warmer and more humid air. This interaction should be enough to spark isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, even with mid and upper level ridging holding steady over the southeastern CONUS. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period thanks to high pressure in place.
405 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 At 3 AM, the short wave trough that brought the scattered showers and storms to northern Wisconsin on Tuesday afternoon and evening was moving east across eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan. This is due to this system being picked up by a northern stream short wave trough. As a result, there is only scattered convection along the trough as it moves through the area.
The h5 pattern has a closed low over Alberta with a series of southern Colorado. As the low over Alberta moves into Saskatchewan. Forecast soundings show warm air in place in the lower and mid levels thus storms would be elevated initially. Freezing levels are not too high as well.
337 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 (Today and Tonight) Our area will remain under south-southwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper level high over the southeastern CONUS, and an upper level trough progressing slowly east across the southwestern states. With skies becoming partly cloudy this afternoon, temperatures will be a little warmer, and expect highs to be mostly in the 90-92 degree range. trough. Warm and relatively humid conditions are expected for our area with overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, a surge of drier and slightly cooler air was advancing southward behind a cold front moving through eastern Wyoming. The majority of this drying will occur on the plains and therefore convective development in the lower elevations will likely be hindered. In the mountains, wet bulb zero levels drop sufficiently with passage of cold pocket aloft to bring potential of an inch or two of snow to the higher peaks above 12000-12500 feet.
244 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Cool high pressure will build into the area from the west through today. It will move off into the Atlantic on Wednesday, with warmer temperatures arriving on southwesterly winds.
Tonight-Thu: The unsettled pattern looks to continue for Tonight thru Wed night, as a cold frontal boundary makes slow progress into Central KS and eventually into South Central KS by Wed night, as it becomes parallel to the SW flow.
136 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Fair and pleasant weather continues today before turning warmer and more humid through mid week.
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions with limited cloud coverage. Ridging will continue to transition over the area through the period with the ridge axis progged to be east of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be warmer as a result.
More sunshine and a roughly 5C rise in H850 temps should allow for a modest boost in temperatures today, with highs expected to reach from near 80 to the low 80s.
352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016 Southeast Texas remains on the western edge of an expansive upper level ridge spread across the Gulf Coast states this morning. Lower thunderstorm coverage is expected today than yesterday, however, as the upper ridge along the Gulf Coast builds farther west. Another warm day is expected Wednesday with highs again in the upper 80s to low 90s and even lower thunderstorm coverage than today as the upper ridge maintains its influence over the region.
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 A broad ridge at the upper levels extends across the Florida peninsula with a remnant frontal boundary just north of north Florida with a cold front extending eastward of that into the Atlantic waters. The upper level ridge will continue to maintain unseasonal warmer mid-level temperatures and will help to hamper convective potential today, but not completely.
333 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure shifts east today. Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. before the next cold front approaches later in the week. ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate through tonight with tranquil weather. So after early morning dense river valley fog under this high pressure. models indicate dry weather with high pressure will still hang on.
as the trof moves out. Satl showed a stronger trof moving into Wrn Canada and WA/OR. A strong 160 kt jet was associated with this trof. a broad trof will develop over the Nrn Plains/Nrn Rockies. This high will drift E into the mid MS Vly today and into the OH Vly tonight. The passing trof only has some limited patches of cirrostratus in the Nrn sky. Light SW winds shifting to NW after late-night cold frontal passage. This disturbance will usher in slightly cooler air behind a front late Wednesday.
Mid and high level clouds were advancing into the area ahead of a weak warm front and weak warm air advection.
North Laramie Range should easily hit the 50G75MPH criteria with these strong 700mb winds, so added the north Laramie Range into the High Wind Warning as well.
Weak high pressure will extend across the region Tonight, with ample lower level moisture place.
348 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Upper level trough currently entering the Great Lakes will swing through this evening with ridging then taking over through the overnight.
A cold front will move across the area Wednesday. The cold front will bring cooler air but not artic air so temperatures will remain near or above normal for most locations through the week.
/Issued 300 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/ High pressure is centered over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. This high will begin to shift east of the area today, resulting in above normal high temperatures again today. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday even as the next cold front moves through the region Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 424 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A stalled cold front, located just south of our counties, will slowly move back north, as a warm front, during the next 24 hours.
Afternoon high temperatures should be about 5 degrees above normal, ranging from the lows 30s along the Highway 20 corridor, to the low 40s in the far south. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
A cold front will move through the region Wednesday afternoon, but the CAA won't arrive until Wednesday evening, so expect high temperatures similar to today's.
318 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Mid and high level clouds are increasing from the west in advance of the approaching warm front which will move across the region overnight. Lows are a bit tricky tonight, as many areas will probably see their lows reached this evening, before temps remain steady or slowly rise through the night as the warm front passes and clouds thicken/increase.
A cold front was also slowly moving southeast in the state, and located north of TXK to south of LIT and south of MEM. A warm and moist airmass was south of the front with dewpoint temps in the 60s, while a cooler and drier airmass north of the front with dew point temps in the 40s to 20s. Aloft the broad upper trough was over the central US and is helping move the front eastward. Higher rain chances will be seen this morning, then much lower into the afternoon as the cold front pushes southeast and clears the rain in the afternoon. This system moves east as another cold front swings through AR Wednesday night and cools temperatures to normal values to below normal values.
320 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Despite the cooler, post-frontal airmass across the Mid-South, temperatures remain a good 5+ degrees above climo for late December. This will lift the aforementioned stalled surface boundary back north as a warm front. An expansive trough will move east across the Midwest Wednesday evening. This will increase forcing for ascent across the region and will drive a cold front into the area from the northwest.
There is some uncertainty regarding low temperatures tonight depending upon how quickly the low-level stratus clears out. With high clouds arriving later tonight, stayed towards the warmer side of guidance for most areas.
Added east Platte county to the High Wind Warning since the winds should really pick up there by this afternoon. North Laramie Range should easily hit the 50G75MPH criteria with these strong 700mb winds, so added the north Laramie Range into the High Wind Warning as well.
330 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Through Wednesday: The cold front will stall near the southern border of the forecast area overnight, with low level flow gradually veering around to the east overnight then more southerly by tomorrow morning. The front will lift back northward early Wednesday as a warm front, with additional low stratus spreading northward early in the day.
253 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Relatively quiet forecast in the near term with high pressure over the central portion of the country shifting east. Low pressure well to the north will also shift east with increasing gradient ahead of the cold front. Will result in increasing flow aloft, and expect to see winds increase along exposed areas such as the Buffalo Ridge throughout the night. Cold front will shift through the area tonight into Wednesday morning.
A cold front moves down through the region Wednesday night.
1014 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2016 The main themes today are warmer on the plains due to a robust lee trough. but no amplified wave is indicated so high wind gusts should not reach the lower foothills locations. The main concern will be the high wind potential again for the higher mountains and foothills by later this afternoon and evening. However, given the increase in moisture expected overnight this will deamplify wave wave activity and keep winds at the highest elevations. Strong winds at mountaintop, with gusts 55 to 70 mph over the higher elevations, will create whiteout conditions throughout most of the day.
1115 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure will build into the region today.
Upper trof moving into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia this morning will amplify as it moves along the northern tier into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during Wednesday.
1230 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure into Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area later tonight with W/NW winds increasing especially across northwest SD.
A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening. High pressure moves in for Wednesday.
Limited insolation and 925mb temps bottoming out around - 8C will favor very limited diurnal recovery with highs likely maxing out just a couple degrees warmer than current temps. Increasing southerly gradient will force temps well above freezing during the day Wednesday and near freezing Wednesday night. Any precip that falls likely to be snow due to wet-bulbing, but forecast soundings are quite dry in the lowest 10kft and potential for measureable appearing rather low attm. Southwest to west winds will slowly diminish today, dropping below 20 knots by tonight as ridge axis arrives over the Central Great Lakes. As the ridge axis slides east on Wednesday, southerly winds will increase, topping out at least to 30 knots by Wednesday evening ahead of the next cold front.
A deepening, positively tilted and fast moving trough takes aim at the area Wednesday night.
A cold front now advancing across the terminal will maintain a few showers through the afternoon. As of 10 AM CST, weak surface cold front is on the doorstep of the forecast area. The cold front is located near I-20 this morning with showers and thunderstorms located in the vicinity of this feature.
1255 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows a quasi zonal flow pattern over the CONUS with a long wave trough present over the northern half and minor short wave troughs in the flow over the Rockies. At the surface a high pressure was gradually exiting the Tri-State Area. Today highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as southerly winds bring warmer air up from the south. Am still expecting highs over the remaining snowfield in western Yuma County to be cooler than the rest of the Tri-State Area, the question is how cool. Tonight a pre-frontal trough will move through the Tri-State Area. Behind the trough winds will turn to the west. There is a strong trough in the eastern CONUS and a ridge in the western CONUS.
Currently the satellite water vapor image is showing a cut off low centered off of the Southern California Coast and plume of moisture riding over a ridge positioned over the Eastern Pacific.
356 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure moving through Kentucky to West Virginia will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Wednesday. A wave of low pressure traveling along a cold front will bring rain mainly to southern locations Wednesday night.
Look for much warmer temperatures today as Arctic air mass moves to the east and chinook warming moves in.
Unseasonably mild and humid conditions will continue to prevail, with lows (and dewpoints) only reaching the low 60s overnight across our area.
Highs will warm up similarly to yesterday, reaching into the low 50s in most areas, roughly ten degrees warmer than average. A mid level trough moves across the northern plains tonight, although this front will remain well north of the area so no precipitation is expected.
As this trough passes through the region tonight expect some light snow north central.
1206 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Compared to last night, a more subdued H5 pattern was noted across the lower 48 tonight. A closed low was noted north of the Great Lakes with a trough extending south into Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa. Further west, a weak ridge extended from Washington state north into southern British Columbia with a trough off shore of western Canada. Further south, a closed low was noted off the California Coast and showed up nicely on current WV imagery. At the surface: High pressure was anchored across the central plains tonight and has led to clear skies and light winds overnight. This strong gradient has led to some strong winds over the higher terrain of Wyoming tonight.
With ensuing warm air advection will see highs a good 8 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 20s through the Highway 14 corridor to near 40 over the Missouri River Valley. Overall, lows are looking to range from near 20 along the Highway 14 corridor to the upper 20s through the MO River Valley.
1226 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Observed temperatures in the northwest, where the greatest fresh snowfall of 12 to 18 inches fell during the Christmas blizzard, are climbing slower than most other areas and were about 2 to 4 deg cooler than prev hourly curve forecast. Minimal impacts expected today as mid level short wave ridge transits the forecast area. As trough deepens over the mid west region comes under increasing nw flow aloft.
320 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 At 3 PM, subsidence in the wake of a departing short wave trough has resulted in clearing across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Elsewhere the temperatures were in the lower and mid 20s. For tonight, skies will gradually clear across western Wisconsin this evening in the wake of the short wave trough which is moving through the region. In addition to the clouds, we will see moderate to strong warm air advection take place in the lowest 4 km of the column.
Skies remain clear over our part of the state this morning, and this trend should continue through the afternoon as high pressure builds eastward across southern Missouri. 08z/2am surface analysis shows 990mb low over western Quebec, with trailing cold front approaching the Appalachians. A piece of energy associated with a vigorous upper low currently over British Columbia will dig southeastward across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Wednesday, pushing a cold front toward Illinois. Ahead of the boundary, southerly winds will bring warmer air into the region, resulting in afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 40s.
409 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure into Wednesday.
225 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Dry weather and seasonal temperature can be expected until the approach of a Wednesday night cold front. The mid level thermal trough still looks sufficient to support a few snow showers off the lakes tonight.
Southwesterly winds and a dry airmass will help temperatures to warm back into the low to mid 60s across the region. Jordan Pattern aloft is forecast to remain largely low in amplitude through New Year's Eve under semi-zonal flow, before North Pacific troughing exerts more influence over the western US for the start of 2017. Wednesday opens with an Alberta Clipper broadening over the middle of the CONUS while delivering a dry backdoor cold front late in the day to our forecast area. Even drier and breezier westerly flow juxtaposed with stout thermal ridging ahead of the front should guarantee much warmer highs than originally forecast.
219 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Quiet and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon across the area, with afternoon temperatures in the low 50s under sunny skies. There will be a very low end chance for a bit of light rain or sprinkles across far southern Missouri tomorrow along with the low clouds; however, the bulk of precipitation chances will remain south and east of the forecast area. Temperatures will warm nicely on Wednesday despite the cloud cover, with highs in the low to mid 50s for most.
The upper level flow pattern over the lower 48 states continues to be fairly zonal with weak disturbances embedded in the flow. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extends from the central Rockies out across the central High Plains into southern Missouri. Weak low level warm advection is beginning to develop over the High Plains in advance of this system. The exception to this will be the far southwest part of the area around Liberal and Elkhart where a warm front will be approaching later today. A cold front moves down through the region Wednesday night.
As of 10 AM CST, weak surface cold front is on the doorstep of the forecast area. The cold front is located near I-20 this morning with showers and thunderstorms located in the vicinity of this feature.
The low cloudiness and fog is quickly dissipating and should leave behind VFR conditions through the remainder of today. Ridging aloft along with modest southeast winds will bring another warm day to the valley on Wednesday.
A few impacts that we are monitoring as data comes in this morning are potential for fog across south/eastern portions of CWA early tomorrow morning and fire danger elevation across far southwest portions of CWA ahead of tomorrow's cold front. A cold front will move through on Wednesday as an upper-level trough moves from the Canadian Prairies to the U.
Gusty at Times near the Mountains and Warmer Today. Conditions will generally remain dry over the next 24 hours except over the higher terrain of the central mountains. A quick-moving disturbance aloft will cross the Rockies under strong NW flow, bringing 1 to 3 inches of new snow to the highest elevations of Lake and Chaffee counties through the day. Strong gusts of 50 to 60 mph are expected across the mt peaks and passes, but at this time damaging winds are not expected to affect the lower elevations. A sfc cold front is forecast to drop south across eastern Colorado Wed eve.
1207 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Surface cold front continues to move south and east of the region. Overall, this leads to a slightly cooler forecast for this afternoon. In their wake high pressure will move from Kansas today to Kentucky tonight. Wednesday has been a question mark for the past several days due to feuding models as high pressure moves off to the east and a cold front approaches from the west.
Precipitation remains well to our north, but high cloudiness and a slightly warming airmass helped to keep overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than the last few nights. Overnight temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal the next few nights, but we don't expect hard freeze conditions under building high pressure and a warming airmass.
Will see return sunshine today with high pressure moving across the area.
146 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 A cold front will push through the area late tonight into early Wednesday. The front may push just south of the CSRA before returning northward as a warm front Wednesday night.
317 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 A deep anticyclone has flattened and shifted westward during the last 48 hours, centered now over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F.
240 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Quiet afternoon across the mid state today behind the cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms overnight. CAA continues behind the front, and combined with clear skies/light winds, temperatures should drop into the low 30s for most of the mid state. The next upper trough over the Midwest will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms with the southerly flow. Best chances for showers across the mid state looks to be during that timeframe as well with peak lift ahead of the next cold front.