Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
906 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Update Low pressure will track across Lake Superior over the weekend with a secondary low moving just south of Lower Michigan. Light slushy accums across the high ground of Osceola County are possible but no impacts expected as road surfaces will be above freezing.
Upper 70s to near 80 are forecast for much of the lowlands with HTS/CRW standing the best chance at touching 80 degrees. A strong cold front will approach Sunday night.
A fairly persistent forecast will continue across South Texas as a mid level ridge remains overhead.
1049 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 The mean layered ridge remains situated over Mexico, allowing a short wave trough apparent on water vapor imagery to dive southeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. To our east, an inverted trough has carved out a pocket of cyclonic flow over the Bahamas. Convection has been lacking despite the falling heights and the agitation in the lower levels. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure will persist from the Mid Atlantic to the southeastern states this afternoon and tonight.
601 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes is losing ground to the approach of a series of waves out of the west as an upper low tries to take shape over the Northern Rockies. further assisted by showery activities enhancing the low level RH. but moving eastward in the afternoon/evening hours where the low level jet starts to ramp up.
Could have a few showers and thunderstorms develop along the edge of an advancing ridge of high pressure mainly in the western portion of our area including metro Baton Rouge.
A fairly strong jet max will move through tonight and will swing a stout cold front through the area. Along with this surface cold front will be an elevated front with enough moisture to produce some precipitation.
Aloft - A ridge centered above Mexico dominates most of the Gulf region while a short wave trough initially over the central Gulf coast tracks southeasterly over FL. Surface - High pressure sprawls down the eastern seaboard into the Gulf as an inverted trough meanders over and north of the Bahamas. Model PWAT values run in the 1 inch range although the inverted trough eases toward the state Sun afternoon with the PWAT values increasing.
540 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Current surface map places weak low near the Black Hills with cold front moving through southeast Montana into northeast Wyoming. Cold front slips through western South Dakota this morning. High pressure builds across the northern plains Sunday.
940 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will lift northward into Pennsylvania late this weekend.
1127 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Strong high pressure will build to the north today.
Highs are still expected to reach the middle 80s everywhere, except possibly along the immediate coast where onshore winds will keep it 5 to 10 degrees cooler.
Forecast confidence is high: Models are in pretty good agreement for Sunday, bringing low pressure through the region.
Upper level trough moving across the area was producing a band of showers which was currently mainly along and east of the MS River. Temperatures were in the lower to mid 40s. Today: Showers will exit the cwa this morning but low stratus will remain all day, as a strengthening inversion at about 850 mb traps the low level moisture. Tonight: Strong inversion will trap the low level moisture with low stratus and areas of fog and patchy drizzle expected. This will be ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Lows will range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Trends continue for cooler on Sunday with diminishing threat of storms and heavier precipitation. Highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s all but far SE sections near front.
Widespread fog/dense fog extends generally co-exists with the low clouds. Will state it right out now, large bust potential exists today with regards to numerous weather parameters including cloud cover dissipation and eastern extent of warm front which will greatly impact temperature forecast. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s far east to the low/mid 70s elsewhere. For tonight a cold front enters the far northern zones around midnight and clears the forecast area before sunrise. Low temperatures generally in the low to upper 30s.
719 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Strong high pressure will build to the north today.
758 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area early today before stalling. A strong area of high pressure will follow as it ridges down the east coast and into the Carolinas.
739 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A diffuse cold front will extend through the forecast area today into tonight.
1037 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will lift northwards today. A strong cold front will bring the potential for severe weather Sunday evening into Sunday night. Now, high resolution models indicate that chance will be minimal, with the higher PoPs remaining off to our west and northwest with an embedded s/wv. All in all, highs will occur late as the thermal warming will be mainly WAA due to an approaching warm front from the south. Went close to guidance for high temperatures on Sunday with highs in the lower 70s to upper 70s. Thunderstorms in advance of a cold front will begin to push into the region at the very end of the short term period.
Light snow continues to the east of this trough while snow has for the most part ended to the west. This trough is also acting as a cold front as temperatures quickly drop 10 to 15 degrees behind it. The light snow currently over most of the NE Montana will continue to diminish this morning as the trough moves to the east. An upper level trough currently over Western Montana will move east across the forecast area this morning. Skies will at least partially clear after the upper trough moves through today. With cold air advection today, temperatures will not rise much and may even fall in the east where they have stayed somewhat warmer overnight. The next upper trough moves into the Pacific NW tonight and Sunday.
947 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain across the region through tonight. A warm front will move north through the region on Sunday.
956 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Strong high pressure will build to the north today.
1222 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until a warm front returns shower chances later today. Warm front will push northward through the day today, but at this point, very little precip is noted on radar, save for where the deeper moisture resides over the terrain. Weak ridging under the passing wave, in the warm sector, will keep this portion of the area mainly dry.
/Issued 423 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ Short term concerns are the fog and low clouds this morning, followed by the warm front location this afternoon. Or, if the low clouds don't erode by mid afternoon, temperatures could just rise to the low/mid 70s, especially given current temps in the low 50s. The low level flow just off the surface is from the southwest, which should help erode the clouds this afternoon, but the temperatures should stay quite cool much of the day with the clouds. Earlier data suggested that Sunday would be quite warm, but the next cold front may arrive earlier on Sunday than previously expected, suppressing highs across northeast Oklahoma a bit.
/issued 513 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ Cooler temps in the I-30 corridor and North as weak 1015mb bubble of high pressure over OK has nosed into our area over the last day or so. Otherwise just a slightly cooler day with the overall warm regime to persist under flat ridging into the new week.
1125 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Warm and moist air currently in place for early November with a warm front to the north. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 60 74 61 / 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 59 74 60 / 30 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 74 59 74 61 / 30 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 54 73 55 / 40 20 10 10.
1045 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A diffuse cold front will be south of the forecast area today into tonight.
The boundary will lift north as a warm front today, but it will take a while for the low clouds to lift.
Front meandering acrs central AR wl eventually work back NWD today as a warm front. To close out the weekend, a strong upr lvl trof is fcst to move thru the NRN Plains and into the Great Lakes region.
732 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure will build over the region today and will shift east overnight.
1144 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area early today before stalling. A strong area of high pressure will follow as it ridges down the east coast and into the Carolinas.
603 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 The main forecast concern is timing of the exiting precipitation and remain headlines early this morning and then the movement of the cold front east over the cwa tonight. The latest water vapor imagery showing the initial short wave trough exiting to the east this morning. We should remain in between system for the day as the next trough moves east over Montana and into the Dakotas. There may be some patchy flurry or freezing drizzle activity into central areas early, so will we retain some of e advisory until its original expiration. The cold front sweeps east tonight and we will increase pops from west to east overnight.
Troughy weather in place with slightly below normal temperatures. A cold front originating from NorCal will approach our area tonight through Sunday morning.
730 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will lift northward into Pennsylvania late this weekend.
728 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Aviation Low pressure will track across Lake Superior over the weekend with a secondary low moving just south of Lower Michigan. Light slushy accums across the high ground of Osceola County are possible but no impacts expected as road surfaces will be above freezing.
355 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Early morning sfc analysis shows the stationary front extending from the lower Mississippi Valley through the ArkLaTex to ern/sern TX not too far from our nwrn zones. Being that the entire forecast area is now in the warm sector, another very warm and sticky morning is ongoing with temps mostly in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s/around 70. With a moist flow persisting through the column into the weekend with high pressure off the sern CONUS coast keeping a srly low- level flow in place while a swrly flow resides aloft, have maintained at least small POPs in the grids/zones through Saturday to account.
It is uncertain if the lower cloud deck will dissipate Friday morning as winds remain light and moisture abundant, but if it does lift at least partly cloudy skies are expected for a time before increasing middle and high clouds during the afternoon. Further, there remains potential for freezing drizzle at the onset and early on. Regarding the aforementioned low-end chance for freezing drizzle, this is primarily confined to the tomorrow night-early Saturday morning time frame wherein thermodynamic profiles initial are not that saturated/absence of ice in the cloud.
/issued 952 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ Surface warm front showing signs of lifting out of northeast MS at midevening, with northerly winds on the cool side of the boundary over west TN weakening and veering to the east. Locally dense fog was observed immediately north of the warm front at midevening, but should visibility should gradually improve as the front lifts north and showers move into the area. By the late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into Eastern Arkansas ahead of an approaching cold front.
Behind the wave this evening, the cold front pushes back southward into the region before again stalling.
Trend continues to show slightly warmer lows and smaller area of limited concern for freezing precip late tonight into early Friday as temps will hover near freezing and could rise above by the time the rain arrives. Have left a token slgt chc/chc freezing rain in far NE with eve/overnight shift to monitor.
Cigs/vsby issues will linger well into daylight on Friday with models showing more TSTM activity along the warm frontal boundary currently affecting KTXK and soon for KSHV/KELD. Warm front will lift past terminals with MVFR/VFR expected late period. Outlook, more TSTMS for Sat and the next cold front drying us for 2/3 days. /issued 930 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ 03z Sfc Analysis showing our returning warm front situated from near Houston and Lufkin, Texas to near Natchitoches, Louisiana and Vicksburg, Miss. 00z NAM output along with the current run of the HRRR has nailed this activity thus far and really begins to focus renewed activity north and west of the returning warm front or across our northwest zones for the remainder of the night.
346 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure over Maine early this morning will move east of Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
Surface analysis early this afternoon had a ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes bas into the central part of the Plains. Low pressure was back over CO and NM. In our southern counties, again it appears that we will have some warmer temperatures aloft for mixed precipitation and potential for some ice accumulation.
The good news is that the entire area is now above freezing and we are done with the winter weather threat. This area could see another 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next 2 days through Saturday evening and will have the highest potential for additional minor flooding of creeks, streams, and low water crossings. A sharpening cold front/dry line will develop across the Central Plains and surge eastward and a developing low pressure will lift across eastern Kansas into Iowa.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain north of central Florida today, keeping an elevated E/SE low level flow across the region. Temperatures remain above normal, with highs in the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s over the interior, and lows in the 60s, except low 70s along coastal areas south of the Cape. Upr ridge extending from the Wrn Atlc basin across FL and over the eastern Gulf will become slowly elongated and weakening in response to mid level impulses moving across the lwr MS valley.
Temperatures remain at or slightly below freezing generally north and west of a line from north of Monroe to north of Madison to Beaver Dam and Sheboygan. A few hundreths to a tenth of an inch of additional ice will be possible across this area before temperatures continue to slowly rise above freezing during the overnight hours. Further to the east and southeast, temperatures are above freezing, and will remain there early this morning. South portions of the advisory likely just rain, but valley areas still may have pockets near freezing. Medium Fairly strong southeast flow expected ahead of developing low pressure. Thermal ridge punches north ahead of the low with 40-50 knot LLJ.
108 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just south of out Pennsylvania today through Saturday, before lifting north across the commonwealth as a warm front Saturday night.
Persistent and dominant West Atlantic ridge continues to exert its influence over all of the Southeast United States. Continuing low level warm air advection and ridging aloft will keep daytime highs well above normal again today (about 20 degrees above normal), although record highs may be a bit out of reach today.
349 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 The period will begin with the region in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest.
1017 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018 Deep upper trough is persisting across the western CONUS, with southwesterly flow over the central Rockies through the northern Plains and upper Midwest. It still looks like the higher snowfall amounts will be limited to Tripp County.
Model trends suggest that these IFR CIGs could last through tomorrow afternoon as well, with some reprieve from the low visibilities expected as temperatures warm throughout the day. May steady off for awhile overnight, but in general, expect temperatures tomorrow morning at sunrise to be warmer than they are at sunset this afternoon.
Moisture from a departing low pressure system over Idaho was spinning pcpn back into our area and light snow was continuing to fall over some locations such as central oregon and the Wallowa region. As the low drifts further away the pcpn will slowly lessen overnight. Meanwhile the clouds were decreasing and overnight temps are expected to fall into the 20s with single digits across the higher elevations and over central oregon. Satellite shows an upper level low located near the OR/CA/NV border that is sending wraparound moisture into Wallowa County and the Northern Blue Mountains. In the Lower Columbia Basin it may be mixed rain and snow but other locations will be mainly snow.
Nighttime lows should remain in the mid to upper 60s, warmer near the coast. the overall weather pattern won't change much during the short term as a persisting mid-upper level ridge remains in place. At the sfc, high pressure sprawls across the western Atlantic and keeps mainly easterly flow over South Florida for the next couple of days. But any shower that forms should remain shallow and brief as subsidence from the aforementioned ridge will continue to suppress significant vertical development. The dominant ridge will also continue to support the warm trend of this February with afternoon highs hovering the mid 80s and morning lows in the mid-upper 60s.
During this process of drying in the mid levels, there could be a period of freezing drizzle following the end of accumulating snow due to continued saturation in the low levels. 12Z GFS is most bullish/quickest with the mid level wave closing off and results in a strong cyclone centered over the southeast corner of MN late Saturday evening. In addition, the GFS deterministic run is right in the middle of the spread of SLP/QPF in the GEFS solutions, with the lowest member still showing at least 0.
The main upper trof should linger over western North American through the middle of this upcoming week.
Showers will taper off this evening over the eastern sections as the upper low slowly tracks into central Idaho. Friday is dry, cold and breezy under a passing ridge. Precipitation will again be all snow to the lowest valley floors with this system.
A mean trough over the western CONUS with a series of weak embedded ripples will continue to cross the area through tomorrow. Precipitation has increased over southern Utah late this afternoon into this evening aided by the diffluent flow ahead of the trough. Precipitation will then become tied more to the higher terrain and northwesterly upslope region for the afternoon hours tomorrow.
334 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 An upper level trough remains over the western continental U. Low level flow is likely to remained backed across the forecast area with the upper trough still to our west. This in turn will likely keep stratus across the eastern counties through the day with temperatures struggling into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon while on the Caprock more abundant insolation should help temperatures push well into the 50s and lower 60s. The western upper trough will begin to advance eastward this afternoon then accelerate eastward overnight. Increasing lift ahead of the trough may interact with low and mid level moisture across the southeastern counties again tonight with another chance for showers/thunder.
348 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes early today. A weak weather system will approach New England this afternoon and evening followed by high pressure late tonight and Saturday.
Adjusted the low temperature forecast to reflect latest observations, which resulted in dropping low temps mainly along the river valleys. AEH Upper trough over the West with a broad SW flow over the East will continue through the weekend.
343 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 A weak cold front was passing south through western Kansas early this morning. Dense freezing fog has formed in some locations, especially along a corridor from Dodge City to Garden City. A dense fog advisory was in effect for freezing fog for much of southwestern Kansas; but it may not materialize in some areas. Strong southwesterly momentum will tend to cap the moist layer; but isentropic lift, strong shear and a moist layer around 1 km deep should result in drizzle development this evening, changing to freezing drizzle tonight for areas that fall below freezing. It is uncertain how much temperatures will recover today and this will have implications on whether the drizzle is freezing or not tonight. The light freezing drizzle will change to plain drizzle and end from west to east Saturday morning.
/Issued 329 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ An upper trough will track south and east from the Pacific Northwest tonight and across the Rockies Friday. The upper trough will approach the Panhandles Friday night and Saturday morning and will usher in a frontal boundary which will track west to east across the forecast area Saturday. Ahead of the upper trough and front, some light rain or a light wintry mix will be possible across portions of the eastern Panhandles Friday night into Saturday morning before ending quickly.
447 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just south of out Pennsylvania through Saturday, before lifting north across the commonwealth as a warm front Saturday night.
347 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 High clouds streaming over top of the low clouds was limiting stratus build down effects for dense fog formation over parts of central/south central Kansas, therefore expect widespread fog to remain mostly over western Kansas. Strong isentropic lift is expected to develop in the low levels for tonight, and with moist low level airmass remaining in place this should result in widespread drizzle. Surface temperatures could drop below freezing near the I-70 corridor for tonight and Saturday morning which would result in freezing drizzle, therefore we will hoist a winter weather advisory for a few counties in central Kansas. The upper trough that has been camping out over the southwestern states for several days will finally dislodge itself and move eastward across the central plains on Saturday.
/issued 1129 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ Surface warm front showing signs of lifting out of northeast MS at midevening, with northerly winds on the cool side of the boundary over west TN weakening and veering to the east. Locally dense fog was observed immediately north of the warm front at midevening, but should visibility should gradually improve as the front lifts north and showers move into the area. By the late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into Eastern Arkansas ahead of an approaching cold front.
Widespread LIFR to VLIFR conditions are expected tonight, improving throughout the morning tomorrow as a warm front currently to the SE of HOU surges inland. /ISSUED 903 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ At 8 PM, a warm front extended from Cleveland to Houston to Bay City. Dew points are in the lower 70s but water temps have risen into the mid 60s and winds should be stronger tonight which cold mitigate the fog threat. Looking ahead, a cold front will bring showers and storms to the area on Saturday night.
A band of convection will likely linger along a weak cold front as it slowly sags southward on Friday. I will not be surprised to see more heavy rain with the warm frontal passage. The final and main event is still on track for late Saturday and Saturday evening, as the cold front moves through the region.
Temperatures in some areas will be near or slightly below freezing but we do not think freezing fog will result in much ice deposition except perhaps on elevated surface like bridges and overpasses. Our main feature of interest for this forecast period is an upper trough passing to our north on Saturday.
As the low level jet increases along with southerly sfc winds and the sfc boundary slips north, visibilities should improve.