Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will quickly spread across the area from west to east later tonight as warmer westerly flow aloft overspreads cooler low level air. A surface warm front will push northward from the coast Sunday night as southerly flow increases ahead of upstream storm system.
More unsettled conditions arrives mid week with a cold front. Cooler and drier with high pressure to end the work week. Warm air advection with weak over running as warm front approaches from the west-southwest. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. Moisture may be to limited by this time to produce anything, thus only the low POPs.
It will combine with isentropic ascent veering over a warm front across LA/MS and result in an expanding rain shield across the Southeast this morning. Highs will range from the lower 60s in southeast Alabama and parts of south Georgia, to the upper 60s and low 70s nearer to and across north Florida.
Warm front nudging against east tx portion of the area, with fog increasing over portions of TX just outside the cwa, so will keep patchy fog in fcst for east TX thru 9 am.
311 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A weak area of low pressure will push off the North Carolina coast this morning. Canadian high pressure shifts offshore tonight with an area of low pressure moving northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday. A weak but dry cold front crosses the area Sunday night.
Temperatures out east, where it took a little longer for cloud cover to settle, warmed into the upper 30s meaning the Highway 65 corridor is the big winner for coolest temperatures for today. Sunday looks warmer with sufficient warm air advection and a subtle increase in heights aloft.
448 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A dry airmass associated with high pressure moving off to the east will continue to cause pleasant weather across our area today.
254 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 A trof will cross central and southeast Illinois today, with southwesterly winds shifting northwest in its wake. One possible fly in the ointment is the low cloud deck across the upper Midwest behind the trof. A very progressive ridge of high pressure will shift across the area tonight. Winds will turn southerly toward morning on the back side of the ridge, and mid-high level clouds will be increasing ahead of our next weather system.
A gradual trend toward warmer and wetter weather will begin over the next 24 hours.
316 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A weak area of low pressure will push off the North Carolina coast this morning. A weak but dry cold front crosses the area tonight.
the low clouds could not be any slower clearing out of the eastern CWA. Flat ridging will bring above normal temps Sunday.
122 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 A dry airmass associated with high pressure moving off to the east will continue to cause dry weather across our area tonight. A weak cold front will move across the area on Sunday, resulting in an increase in cloudiness.
/issued 227 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Currently across the region gusty south winds along with a few breaks in the clouds were providing for temperatures in the low and mid 70s. but with the cold front and upper support still to the west conditions will by early afternoon should turn around with new development triggering near the Mississippi River. The highest gusts will occur west of the Mississippi River. Kept lows above guidance tonight and highs aligned with the warmer GFS tomorrow.
1134 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 As the upper level low moves east tonight, a weak deformation band of rain showers will move east and end this evening. Skies will become mostly clear from northwest to southeast overnight with weak high pressure building in. Lows to fall near or below freezing.
A strong upper level low pressure system was over the northeast Texas Panhandle early this afternoon. Colder air was plunging south across the western High Plains behind the low. As a result, the high wind warning that was in effect for today has been cancelled. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph in the morning will diminish during the afternoon as a high pressure ridge at the surface moves through.
As the upper low shifts over OK during the evening and overnight periods, showers and scattered thunderstorms gradually weaken and quickly lift off towards the north and east. On Saturday, model guidance is trending towards a slower progression with the upper low exiting the CWA. Northerly winds overnight and Saturday gust up to 25 mph under overcast skies, resulting in a much cooler afternoon with highs in the 60s.
Across the southeast half of the area, the rain will continue with embedded thunderstorms and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the day before. A back door cold front will slide south of Lake Michigan and intersect the other cold front across the southeast third of the area Saturday afternoon.
Cold air advection will utilize wrap-around moisture from departing strong closed low to promote the development of MVFR to VFR stratocumulus this evening. Light northwest winds Saturday morning will trend to west and southwest by day's end as next lee trof develops over eastern New Mexico. /Issued 403 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ The vigorous closed upper low over the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle late today will exit the Panhandles by this evening with skies clearing behind the departing upper low as subsidence prevails.
To the west, shower development has occurred around the upper low center, which is located over west central Oklahoma. Some instability exists, per mesoanalysis, ahead of the upper low across eastern Oklahoma, especially where dew points remain in the mid and upper 50s, and as such, some hail potential will exist with any development that does occur. This activity has been elevated in nature and is occurring in a area of favorable upper level divergence in advance of an upper level low currently spinning over the Texas Panhandle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight and into Saturday morning as the upper level low moves out of the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma. The upper level low will be over southwest Missouri by early Saturday morning. The remainder of Saturday will be dry as ridging aloft builds over the region.
/issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today. Will have brief upper ridging over the area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.
We will see a gradual increase in synoptic scale lift as the upper low moves east through OK. As the low shifts east, most model guidance develops moderate instability as colder air aloft moves into the region. Finally for Saturday, the upper low moves across southern MO with continued chances for showers/scattered thunder.
Upper level low pressure system was over OK and was spreading clouds into southern MN and eastern SD. To the far west, starting to see some thin cirrus spill over an upper ridge along the Sask/Alb provincial border.
Skies have cleared across much of the Lower Columbia Basin.
The current weather is associated with an upper level closed low that will continue progressing through the central plains through Saturday.
/issued 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Even with an impressive cyclone spinning over the eastern Texas Panhandle, high winds in our CWA have been rather subdued in both time and space today. Boundary layer decoupling alone won't be enough to curtail these winds much below 20 mph this evening, particularly as stronger pressure rises arrive ahead of surface ridging. Saturday remains a stellar day under clear skies, seasonably mild temps and light winds within the lingering surface pressure ridge. After a pleasant Saturday, the next upper level trough will dig into the region from the Great Basin becoming negatively tilted then establishing a closed circulation to our north.
742 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and will stall southwest of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north.
backing cooler air mass remaining well off to the northeast providing little to no cold air advection. A very shallow cooler and drier late morning near surface air mass will quickly mix out and warm into the middle to upper 70s (from minT upper 50s north to low 70s along coast) in the early afternoon.
712 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Light showers will move east across central Oklahoma this evening underneath an upper low pressure system. Instability to the east is meager owing to deep mixing/drying and so as the low progresses east, much of western Oklahoma should not experience more than passing light showers.
Ahead of theses SHRA, the area has destabilized somewhat tho limited as dewpoints mix out into the lower 50s.
Expect all terminals to maintain mid/high cigs overnight in advance of cold front which brings 4 kft cigs and showers in vcnty to KCHA late in the period.
Stratus and northerly flow have kept temps only in the 30s and 40s, but Chicago managed to reach the low 80s south of the front. The precip band has weakened and shifted southeast but the upper low across the southern Plains will eject northeastward to the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday/Saturday night which will bring the clouds and precip band back northwestward. That is the bottom line, so thought it best to temper expectations and acknowledge that there will be little change in the forecast and not anticipating any drastic uptick in confidence until this highly amplified, split-flow pattern changes. Within these upper level lows are areas of enhanced vorticity which end up producing precipitation.
Showers can be expected through this evening behind a departing cold front, mainly from Monterey Bay southward.
Cold front bringing west winds arriving durg mrng, with marginal moisture convergence may occur near the KMLU for a brief development of convection as the front passes ovhd around midday Sat.
Southeast CWA has been more affected by the stratocumulus which spread out of southern Illinois earlier today, but even those areas have reached the lower 70s. With the front pushing back north on Saturday as the low moves into Missouri, temperatures should be well into the 60s over the forecast area. The cold front will be considerably ahead of the low.
Dry air mass in place tonight behind the weak cold front, and with wind speeds dropping, temperatures will drop as well.
A deep southwesterly flow between lower pressure over the Central Plains and a ridge over the Southeast Atlantic Coast is bringing scattered to broken mid and high clouds to the Southern Appalachians this evening.
501 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Daytime satellite imagery shows a departing low pressure system centered over the southern high plains. Not expecting freezing temperatures in the Grand Valley and points westward along the Colorado River, but higher mountain valleys will certainly experience their coldest night in several days. Cloud cover will thicken through the day on Saturday with precipitation beginning first in the eastern Uintas by noon, and into the higher elevations of western Colorado by 6pm.
Clouds and light south to southwest flow will keep the ridge/valley temperature split closer tonight. Did increase temperatures on the ridges a bit more, with mid 50s for lows, while some valleys, especially in the far east, slip into the 40s eventually. Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud over the southwest part of the forecast area. Continued to carry a small ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone. Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The models are in good agreement that the mid and upper level low will be north of St.
Although model analysis indicates some elevated instability over the region, on- and-off showers and storms today and thick cloud cover have muddied low-level instability, and thermal ridging ahead of the 850-700 hPa low has also kept midlevel lapse rates weak.
1114 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and will stall southwest of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north.
As the upper low moves slowly eastward, precipitation will diminish over central portions of Nebraska and redevelop over portions of eastern Nebraska during the evening and overnight hours.
/issued 727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire. /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today. Will have brief upper ridging over the area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.
727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire. /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today. Will have brief upper ridging over the area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.
836 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and will stall southwest of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north.
912 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Surface analysis this evening continues to show high pressure ridging over the region from the east. Forecast track has this system lifting toward the Middle Mississippi Valley by tomorrow, as the cold front begins to shift through the TN Valley. In general, following closer to the NAM solution with a morning QLCS initially weakening upon entry into middle TN and northwest AL as it encounters relatively lower instability east of the higher moisture tongue of dew points located further west.
/issued 703 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ We've allowed the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory across the forecast area to expire as scheduled. /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Even with an impressive cyclone spinning over the eastern Texas Panhandle, high winds in our CWA have been rather subdued in both time and space today. Boundary layer decoupling alone won't be enough to curtail these winds much below 20 mph this evening, particularly as stronger pressure rises arrive ahead of surface ridging. Saturday remains a stellar day under clear skies, seasonably mild temps and light winds within the lingering surface pressure ridge. After a pleasant Saturday, the next upper level trough will dig into the region from the Great Basin becoming negatively tilted then establishing a closed circulation to our north.
Showers tonight will slowly decrease on Saturday as an upper level trough over Western Washington moves off to the east.
High pressure brought dry and warmer conditions to northern Arizona today. The next trough of low pressure will cross the state Saturday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain showers mainly from Flagstaff northward.
/Tonight through Saturday/ 20z Fri water vapor imagery clearly showing upper low spinning/propagating eastward across the TX/OK panhandle. Sfc reflection nearly vertically stacked with this low, with warm front extending and oriented SW-NE all the way through Iowa. For Saturday, 500mb charts showing this low becoming "cut-off". This helps track the low NNE through Missouri and into northern Illinois.
Showers can be expected into the evening behind a departing cold front.
The moisture band producing the bulk of the existing convection is well ahead of the cold front, and this will remain so as convection rolls through Middle Tennessee mainly during the afternoon and evening on Saturday.
The surface cold front will remain to the south of the IL border (after it gets there early this evening) through the weekend. There is very weak instability at times, so kept a small chance for some thunder over southeast WI for later tonight as the upper low approaches the mid Mississippi River Valley. This is the time the low level jet points into northern IL, so we will be on the northern fringe of thunder chances.
To the far west, starting to see some thin cirrus spill over an upper ridge along the Sask/Alb provincial border.
819 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large spun up trough over the Southern Plains, while ridging remains in control aloft across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
746 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
Surface map this evening shows the pressure gradient really tightening up ahead of a strong cold front that is currently situated over the southern Plains.
High pressure was located over the western Atlc with ridge axis north of Florida. High pressure over the western Atlc with associated ridging north of the area will remain in place. High pressure ridging remains north thru the period with continuous E/ESE flow.
Water vapor shows upper ridge building through the nrn Rockies with next trof along the west coast. Benign weather expected through tonight with upper ridge building in from the west. Ridge then slides east of the area Saturday with increasing sw flow aloft. Lee trof/thermal ridge will advance to near the WY/SD border Saturday aftn, with increasing sly winds and much warmer/drier conditions especially for the SD plains where relative humidity will drop to around 20 percent. Widespread pcpn expected to move into the wrn half of zones Saturday night as upper trof works out of the Rockies into the plains, with some light snow accums possible at higher terrain.
703 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 We've allowed the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory across the forecast area to expire as scheduled. /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Even with an impressive cyclone spinning over the eastern Texas Panhandle, high winds in our CWA have been rather subdued in both time and space today. Boundary layer decoupling alone won't be enough to curtail these winds much below 20 mph this evening, particularly as stronger pressure rises arrive ahead of surface ridging. Saturday remains a stellar day under clear skies, seasonably mild temps and light winds within the lingering surface pressure ridge. After a pleasant Saturday, the next upper level trough will dig into the region from the Great Basin becoming negatively tilted then establishing a closed circulation to our north.
957 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
642 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 As the upper level low moves east tonight, a weak deformation band of rain showers will move east and end this evening. Skies will become mostly clear from northwest to southeast overnight with weak high pressure building in. Lows to fall near or below freezing.
/issued 712 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Light showers will move east across central Oklahoma this evening underneath an upper low pressure system. Instability to the east is meager owing to deep mixing/drying and so as the low progresses east, much of western Oklahoma should not experience more than passing light showers.
Surface wise, a formidable western Atlantic ridge extends into the southeast United States and gulf coast region, with a 5. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect on all Keys coastal waters for 20 to 25 knots with the higher winds on the Florida Straits.
Webcams indicate shallow fair weather cumulus, and this should be the extent of it as a mid/upper level ridge and associated subsidence aloft continues to propagate through this afternoon. By tonight, the ridge shifts east with a southwest flow and low level warm air advection ensuing. At the surface, low pressure forms in eastern Wyoming early Saturday morning and shifts across southern South Dakota Saturday afternoon and evening. This cold front weakly extends into north central ND, with a surface convergence setting up from southwest to north central by afternoon.
Meanwhile the southern area was along and ahead of a surface cold front. This band is rotating around the upper level low which is moving slowly northeast across Missouri.
Upper level ridge axis that extended from northwestern Sonora Mexico northeastward into Wyoming will move east of the area by daybreak Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be about 5-10 degrees warmer versus this afternoon, with the greatest warming east of Tucson.
Expect mostly clear skies overnight with lows dipping to and below freezing for most areas. Currently dewpoints over the area are in the lower 30s with moderate BL moisture. The strong upper low is now beginning to shift more east and southeast this afternoon away from Colorado and into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Clearing skies tonight as high pressure builds into the region by Saturday morning. Warmer temperatures on the plains Saturday with readings back into the 60s, but only upper 40s/50s under areas of snow cover.
Some freezing rain is possible at times as cold air occasionally drops into the Catskills and Mohawk Valley. High pressure building over eastern Canada will push the front southward again overnight and weakening as much drier air pours in from the northeast.
819 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A cold front will advance eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley overnight. The upper ridge will gradually move east overnight as an occluded low cuts off while moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The response at the surface will be veering winds as we become positioned closer and closer to the western periphery of surface ridging.
Some of the cooler valleys have dropped off into the upper 50s. Clouds and light south to southwest flow will keep the ridge/valley temperature split closer tonight. Did increase temperatures on the ridges a bit more, with mid 50s for lows, while some valleys, especially in the far east, slip into the 40s eventually. Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud over the southwest part of the forecast area. Continued to carry a small ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone. Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The models are in good agreement that the mid and upper level low will be north of St.
Low pressure will move NNE across Missouri Saturday and Saturday night with its warm front well to our north. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are virtually a certainty Saturday night as the low to our west pushes a weak surface trof through the Ohio Valley with deep moisture to work with.
This dry atmosphere is supported by KTFX 00z sounding, which suggests strong subsidence in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere.
So all facets of severe weather will remain possible in the potential cold-core setup as the near northeast quad of the upper low affects the area through early this evening. Scattered to numerous showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning within the back edge of the deformation zone and wrap-around precip to the north and northwest of the eastward migrating upper low.
Flow was becoming a bit more southerly in our western counties enabling dew points to climb into the lower to middle 50s. The low level dry air advection has reduced the near overcast ceilings we had early this morning. In general, following closer to the NAM solution with a morning QLCS initially weakening upon entry into middle TN and northwest AL as it encounters relatively lower instability east of the higher moisture tongue of dew points located further west.