Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
726 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL IMPACTS COULD HAMPER COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA UNLESS A WELL DEFINED LINE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OR FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS QUICKER TO ARRIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND GIVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE.
STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. ONLY TO HAVE ANOTHER DEEPER AND STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVE ONSHORE OUT WEST AND REPLACE IT BY MIDWEEK. WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. MORE LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SEEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION ON MONDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM MORNING TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER RIDGE KEEPS AIR MASS DRY.
911 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVE TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM COURTESY OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
716 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
621 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE MAIN LOW TOWARD SOUTH AND WILL STRETCH OUT ALONG THE UPPER LOW PATH LATER TONIGHT. ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND SOME WARMER AIR TO WORK INTO NORTHWEST IOWA MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEAKENS. WITH THE REMNANT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.
No rain is expected tonight, and low temperatures should fall into the lower 60s.
535 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016 STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL DROP THE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AS THE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ONLY DECREASE THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIG INTO UTAH BY THE AFTN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD. ANOTHER LINE OF CUMULUS IS FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER ZIEBACH COUNTY. BRIEF RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN HALF. NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER WYOMING. THERE WAS A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A RIDGE OVER TEXAS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
544 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016 WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY KEPT SOME CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND ALSO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WERE ALSO A BIT COOLER WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES PICKING UP. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW AND ASSOD COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
650 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 As ridging aloft is replaced by quasi-zonal flow tonight and into Monday, a southwesterly low level jet will increase to 30 to 40 knots over our region.
/ISSUED 341 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016/ UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
1157 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
755 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
749 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 YET ANOTHER FANTASTIC SPRING EVENING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOLLOWING A PERFECT SPRING DAY WHICH WITNESSED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION. AND HELD ON TO THE HIGHER POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (IT WILL NOT BE A CONSISTENT RAIN.
1057 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016 WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY KEPT SOME CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND ALSO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WERE ALSO A BIT COOLER WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES PICKING UP. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW AND ASSOD COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
Have sped up the timing of the low clouds slightly for the southeast terminals of Junction and Brady. Overnight lows will be well above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s. Still, highs will be in the low 90s for most locations, with a few mid 90s possible.
Temperatures warmed up into the low 80s at some locations today with partly cloudy skies.
NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR BUT TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 81 59 84 / 0 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 80 59 83 / 0 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 59 83 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 79 54 80 / 0 10 10 20.
A CLUSTER NEAR PIERRE, ANOTHER NEAR MOBRIDGE AND ANOTHER MOVING UP ALONG THE 1-29 CORRIDOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG HIGHWAY 12 IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING JUST EAST OF KPIR/K9V9 WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MUCH OF THIS CWA IS SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WANES AFTER 6Z MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND REACHING ACROSS FL TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF WILL EASE OFFSHORE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PREVAILING EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
Overnight lows will be well above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s. Still, highs will be in the low 90s for most locations, with a few mid 90s possible.
914 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD MONDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS SNOW LEVELS DROP A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AS A COOL TROUGH OF LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
/issued 441 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its trek eastward. The next trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move eastward across the Four Corners region. Strong upper level winds will accompany this trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
Temperatures across the region at 3 am this morning were in the 20s and 30s across the plains withe teens and 20s in the higher elevations.
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 An upper low over northeast Oklahoma early this morning, will slowly eject eastward today, reaching central Missouri by 06Z tonight. A few small clusters of showers should linger mainly to the east of I-135 today, as vort lobes pinwheel around the upper low circulation. The next upstream upper trough approaching southern California, per 6. Combined with moderate- strong ascent with the upper trough, this should result in a fairly widespread convective rainfall occurring mainly in the south.
Rain will become more widespread Sunday as the upper low moves over the area. Otherwise, impulses from the upper low will move northeast and bring more showers and storms to the area, especially over northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan. The upper low should lift over the forecast area by late Sunday favoring widespread showers and storms.
339 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A cold front over central New York and southern New England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today.
402 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic will be in control today. A back door cold front will drop southwestward into the area later tonight and Sunday.
Thunderstorms are still swirling in Oklahoma near the center of a cyclone, but North and Central Texas are now fully ensconced in the system's downglide. It will deepen above the High Plains during the day Sunday, pulling Gulf moisture north into North and Central Texas. A dryline will make some progress eastward during the day Sunday, but with paltry 700mb flow in its vicinity far separated from the parent cyclone, it may be late in the day before it invades our western zones.
629 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will shift to our east today ahead of a front that will move into our region late Saturday night and Sunday. The upper ridge axis moves east of the area, with the upper flow pattern becoming out of the southwest, which will bring Gulf moisture northward in the mid levels. An upper low will lift northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region tonight and into Sunday while gradually weakening.
In the upper levels a cut-off low will be over MO today. The associated trough will move through the region overnight. The associated cold front will stay well to our north. As the trough moves across MS and AL a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop. This line will likely weaken before it gets to this region as the surface cold front weakens and daytime heating ends.
129 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
A weak cold front that extends from near paris to Waco to Ozona will continue to push east and should move into SE TX prior to sunrise.
631 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A cold front over southeastern New York and southern New England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today.
414 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Expect enhanced southerly moisture transport to allow for midlevel cloud deck today (possible breaks here and there), though the approaching cutoff trough to the west and upper level vorticity advection will ramp up shower chances by this evening.
1223 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Storms were along the prefrontal trough will affect the KHOU, KLBX, and KGlS through about 08Z. However, at least showers could continue to affect these locations until the actual cold front moves through sometime between 11Z and 15Z. backing cooler air mass remaining well off to the northeast providing little to no cold air advection. A very shallow cooler and drier late morning near surface air mass will quickly mix out and warm into the middle to upper 70s (from minT upper 50s north to low 70s along coast) in the early afternoon.
215 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will continue to move off the Virginia and North Carolina coast this weekend. A strong area of low pressure will drift east over the southern plains with a trailing cold south into Texas. A warm front will reside from the Great Lakes region to Lake Erie into Saturday. Warm moist air will continue to ride over this lingering insitu wedge with only an increase in cloud cover expected tonight, especially along the southern Blue Ridge. Cloud cover, mixing on the ridges, and surface dew points in the 40s will limit the drop in temperatures overnight. Warmer and moist this period. Models seem in agreement on getting the cold front west of the Appalachians Sunday, then weakening it as it crosses over.
Cold front has pushed east of the area with colder air aloft as an upper level trough moves overhead. Slightly warmer air moves into the region on Sunday afternoon, as southwest flow develops and clouds increase with an approaching system.
Upper trof currently along the west coast will slide east across the Rockies through the weekend. Most of the energy associated with the trof will pass to the south and north of Montana resulting in generally dry and warm conditions. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trof is spreading moisture northward into Montana this morning. Cold front moves through eastern Montana later this morning, and enough cold air advection and pressure gradient to result in some gusty winds today. Upper trof moves across the state on Sunday bringing high pressure into eastern Montana and pushing showers out. Slight upper ridge develops Sunday night with next trof pushing across the west coast.
251 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery indicated that deep slow moving mid-level cyclone was located over northeast OK. Short term models are in good agreement this morning in taking this low across MO over the next 24 hours. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicates that the ridge axis extends from western MN into western NEb.
332 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Early this morning, a slow moving upper level low was located over the central United States.
210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Upper level trough/closed 500 mb low sits over the southern plains early this morning, progged to take a somewhat slow trek northeast into the eastern great lakes by Sunday night. All that said, still have the upper level low and its various ripples/spokes of energy to rotate across the region for today and Sunday. Southern stream looks fairly active, with both the GFS and the EC moving at least two 500 mb troughs from the desert southwest to the oh valley/great lakes regions. Lower stratus encompasses the region and won't go much of anywhere the next 24 hours, as low pressure slowly drifts by to the south.
Deep southerly flow continues to draw unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air into the Ohio Valley, ahead of a closed and stacked low pressure system over Oklahoma. The low will lift NE across Missouri today and tonight, with the warm conveyor belt slowly translating eastward across Kentucky. Still looking at categorical POPs tonight as the negatively-tilting upper trof axis pushes in. Upper low slowly makes its way into the Great Lakes on Sunday, so will hang on to lingering high POPs through the day as we remain under the cold pool with ample low-level moisture.
Satellite imagery shows low clouds expanding along the low level jet over the Victoria Crossroads. The low level flow quickly weakens into the Brush Country but high boundary layer moisture has pushed back toward Laredo. Satellite imagery shows the cold front advancing through the Hill Country at this time.
434 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather today. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday when the low is forecast to travel to the Western Great Lakes.
However, the low clouds do not appear to be moving all that much yet. The clouds will also play somewhat into the temperature forecast, but really do not have a good feel for how the low clouds will evolve today.
338 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 An upper low pressure system in eastern Oklahoma early this morning will lift northeast into Missouri today.
A cooler marine influence to the north of this boundary will provide a rather significant temp gradient making for a difficult/low confidence temp forecast north of US 30 tomorrow. The above mentioned upper low will continue to fill/open northeast through the local area on Sunday. Upstream kicker will force this wave northeast of the area by Sunday night, though cannot rule out some lingering drizzle/light showers near a leftover low level trough.
547 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will shift to our east today ahead of a front that will move into our region late Saturday night and Sunday. Morning lows still on track to fall to the lower to mid 50s. The upper ridge axis moves east of the area, with the upper flow pattern becoming out of the southwest, which will bring Gulf moisture northward in the mid levels. An upper low will lift northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region tonight and into Sunday while gradually weakening.
333 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
The closed upper low to the west will continue to slowly drift east this afternoon through Sat. the primary SVR WX threat will remain damaging winds given the impressive dynamics and SHR associated with this synoptic cyclone moving over the region.
A closed upper low sits over eastern Oklahoma, while upper level ridging extends from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, over Florida and into the western Atlantic. Another closed low sits over the Bahamas and Cuba. On the surface, strong high pressure near Bermuda ridges southwest over Florida. Another area of high pressure develops in the northeast Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday evening and will keep benign weather conditions over the area.
/Tonight through Saturday/ 20z Fri water vapor imagery clearly showing upper low spinning/propagating eastward across the TX/OK panhandle. Sfc reflection nearly vertically stacked with this low, with warm front extending and oriented SW-NE all the way through Iowa. For Saturday, 500mb charts showing this low becoming "cut-off". This helps track the low NNE through Missouri and into northern Illinois. This projected track seems plausibly, as the low almost begins to show signs of wanting to retrograde Sunday morning.
339 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A relatively stagnant upper low centered over the Oklahoma and Kansas border will be slow to move today before a deepening trough upstream finally pushes the storm system northeast by this afternoon. Expecting values ranging from the upper 40s across northwest Missouri, to the lower 60s across central Missouri, where weak warm advection will persist. Overnight lows will also be moderated, though slightly cooler than the previous night with weak CAA, dropping into lower to mid 40s.
402 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure building in from the north today will bring gradually lessening chances for precipitation, pushing a frontal boundary south of the area with some afternoon sunshine expected, mainly across central and northern areas. Unsettled and warmer weather returns for the end of the weekend as developing low pressure over the central U.
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will build down from central Canada today into tonight and crest over the region on Sunday.
1118 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Filling surface/upper low moving into western Oklahoma with northerly flow over the CWA this afternoon. Expect clear skies across the CWA overnight into Saturday as a short upper ridge passes across. After a cool night it will be warmer again Saturday with highs attaining the 60s over most areas outside of the mtns. Upper trof axis passes across Sunday morning with clearing conditions Sunday afternoon. Cooler Sunday with max temps about 10 degrees or so less from Saturday.
An upper trough is currently pushing east into central California with a round of showers impacting much of the area. The high res and medium range models are all in agreement that widespread showers will become less numerous late this morning with much of the activity shifting to the east and south valley as well as the southern Sierra Nevada. brief upper level ridging will be present over the area late Saturday into early Sunday as the upper trough shifts quickly east into Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. By Sunday afternoon an upper trough will extend from the British Columbia coastline south into northern California.
/issued 819 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large spun up trough over the Southern Plains, while ridging remains in control aloft across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
357 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will build down from central Canada today into tonight and crest over the region on Sunday.
617 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will build down from central Canada today into tonight and crest over the region on Sunday.
403 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather today. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday when the low is forecast to travel to the Western Great Lakes.
435 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A slow moving stacked low pressure system currently over eastern OK will move northeast, reaching the Chicago area by Sunday evening. A warm, moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the advancing upper trough associated with the system are responsible for a line of showers and thunderstorms currently extending from southern IL south to the Gulf Coast. With decent flow aloft and freezing levels only around 8K ft on Sunday, organized convection could bring strong winds and hail. A weak low will be stacked with it and trailing cold front attempting to progress through the area.
Some freezing rain is possible at times as cold air occasionally drops into the Catskills and Mohawk Valley. High pressure building over eastern Canada will push the front southward again overnight and weakening as much drier air pours in from the northeast. The colder and drier air will also bring a return to a threat of freezing rain over the northern and eastern zones Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sub-freezing temperatures at the surface will lead to patchy freezing rain over our northeastern counties early Sunday morning, before the front surges northward and pushes temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Most of the forecast area will remain very mild Sunday night, though forecast temperatures in the lower to middle-30s over the far northeastern counties will once again increase the risk for mixed precipitation.