Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mild Today with Snow Showers Developing along the Continental Upper high pressure ridge will drift east across forecast area today. Ridge axis will be over western Colorado at 6 am, over the I25 corridor at 3 pm, and then moving into western Kansas by midnight. Passage of the upper ridge will result in a day of really mild temperatures across the region. Winds will not be too bad across most of the area though they will start to increase as the upper ridge shifts eastward. Tonight, as the upper ridge shifts east into Kansas, the flow of moisture into the Continental Divide will increase with snow showers developing. The eastern mountains could see some scattered snow showers develop across the highest terrain by morning but it should remain dry elsewhere.
259 AM PDT Wed Mar 14 2018 A trough pattern will prevail across the western states through the weekend, resulting in an unsettled weather pattern for Southern California.
The return of southerly flow will allow for warm air advection, which should keep overnight temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees F warmer tonight/Thursday morning compared to the previous 24 hours.
254 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure will settle over the Mid-South today and will bring one more cool and dry day to the area. As a result, lows will be much warmer than the last two nights. In fact, some areas may see the lowest temperature occur around midnight with temperatures holding steady or slowly rising after midnight thanks to warm air advection. The dry weather will come to an end late Thursday Night as showers ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Plains moves into the area. The showers will develop out ahead of a secondary pseudo warm front that will act more as a moisture boundary as higher dewpoints will spread into the CWA behind it.
An upper level ridge overhead will keep mostly southerly winds today but warmer temperatures closer to or above seasonal averages. Surface dew point will be on the increase today under the low level return flow, however, this increase will be stunted a bit off the caprock. An upper level ridge will mover east of the area on Thursday with a short wave moving across the four corners by the afternoon. However, deep mixing by the afternoon especially on the caprock will dry out the low levels of the atmosphere. This will also be layered on top of a low level thermal ridge.
217 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Omega blocking pattern aloft remains in place over the U. and Canada early this morning with a low entering the west coast, a highly amplified ridge over the Rockies and another low over the eastern Great Lakes. Tonight, southerly winds will continue and should see some rising heights aloft as the main low continues to push east and upper ridging in advance of the Pacific low also shifts further east into the plains. Low pressure will begin to develop in the high plains ahead of the upper level system on Thursday. Upper ridge will move eastward over the area with southerly winds increasing over the area ahead of the low. A decent southwesterly low level jet will set up Thursday night with good warm air advection ahead of the low.
Orographic lift and lapse rates in the neighborhood of 7-8 degrees C/km will allow the light snow to accumulate; mainly over the higher terrain across these areas. Kept the advisory going for the extreme northeast corner of Tennessee with temperatures a few degrees below freezing and some light accumulation impacting slightly elevated terrain as well as bridges and overpasses. Deeper moisture and lift fade away around mid to late morning as the upper trough slips east. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be a few degrees colder today with highs ranging from the lower to mid 30s north to the lower to mid 40s across the south.
615 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure in the Lower Mississippi River Valley today will be in the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday.
This morning the very cold upper level trough remains centered off the British Columbia coast and extends south over California. Models show the low pressure center remaining nearly stationary today, while the southern portion of the trough pivots inland following the cold front, which will cross southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho this morning.
A cool upper level low will remain off the coast today bringing a chance of showers to the area.
The higher MAV MOS numbers look like a good first guess, and if gusty SW winds come to fruition, realized max temps will probably be even higher as many locations west of the MS river make a run on 60F. In the meantime, light winds and clear skies will allow temps to drop into the low to mid 20s tonight. Temps on Thursday will depend on where the frontal boundary is, but for now have highs on Thursday in the low 50s far north to the upper 60s far south.
A cold front moves across the state late tonight and into Wednesday.
The large upper level trough over the eastern Pacific continues to shift east into the western U. A cold front along the east side of the trough has largely moved through northeast Oregon/southeast Washington (remains over eastern Wallowa county at the moment).
339 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 High pressure over eastern Kansas will move south today toward the Southern Plains providing a period of dry weather through the short term. A broad trough over the eastern one third of the country will slowly continue to move to the east today. Winds will switch from the northwest to the southwest after sunrise today over the area in response to high pressure moving south this morning.
540 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Omega blocking pattern aloft remains in place over the U. and Canada early this morning with a low entering the west coast, a highly amplified ridge over the Rockies and another low over the eastern Great Lakes. Tonight, southerly winds will continue and should see some rising heights aloft as the main low continues to push east and upper ridging in advance of the Pacific low also shifts further east into the plains. Low pressure will begin to develop in the high plains ahead of the upper level system on Thursday. Upper ridge will move eastward over the area with southerly winds increasing over the area ahead of the low. A decent southwesterly low level jet will set up Thursday night with good warm air advection ahead of the low.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Wednesday night: Latest RAP and satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, which was providing cold air advection in northerly flow to the region. This is the area that has the best chance of dipping below freezing for at least several hours. Highs will range from the middle 50s north to the lower 60s south. Minimum humidities will dip in the lower to middle 20s, but light winds and recent rainfall will limit fire danger issues. There will be some potential for freezing temperatures in our eastern counties for Wednesday night. Lows for Wednesday night will range from mainly the lower 30s east to the upper 30s west.
405 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected most of the week under upper level low pressure. Upper low shifts northeast today. Another cold front will swing through early Thursday morning with a reinforcing shot of cold air. This will invigorate snow showers for a majority of the lower elevations, but could lead to appreciable accumulations in the highest elevations of Tucker and Garrett Counties.
1204 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 For the 14/06Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft through the forecast period. Mostly clear skies tonight with temperatures near freezing across Extreme NE Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW and South Central Arkansas.
Large trough over the eastern U. However, it will be on the cool side as the trough is not expected to begin relinquishing its grip until tonight and Thursday. Warmer Thursday as heights rise considerably and a southerly return flow sets up.
530 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 GOES_East water vapor imagery early this morning showing a mid-level trough dropping south along the Manitoba/Ontario border. Warm air advection kicks in this morning across the region ahead of that mid-level trough/surface cold front dropping south out of Canada. High pressure builds in behind the departing mid-level wave/surface cold front tonight with overnight lows falling into the teens to middle 20s. Sunny and a bit cooler for Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the region. Plan on highs in the 30s to the lower 40s.
This activity will shift east with the low and approach the Ozarks late this evening and move across portions of the Ozarks during the overnight hours. The low will also continue to bring unseasonable cold air into the area overnight. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for most of the western Ozarks and southeastern Kansas with the eastern Ozarks seeing temperatures in the lower to middle 30s overnight. A freeze warning remains in effect for tonight for those locations where temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for multiple hours. The low will make slow progression east through the day Sunday which will make for a cold, blustery day across the are.
These showers are expected to exit the CWA by late this evening and high pressure will begin to build into the region tonight and through the day tomorrow.
Windy and dry conditions ongoing across South Central Texas in the wake of last night's cold front. Can't rule out some sheltered and low spots in Llano, Gillespie, Blanco, Kendall, and Kerr counties briefly dipping to near the freezing mark around sunrise Sunday morning. Outside of the Hill Country lows will dip into the low to mid 40s, with some isolated spots in the upper 30s. After a cold morning start temperatures will rebound nicely on Sunday, with highs in the low 70s across the northeast CWA to low 80s along the Rio Grande.
Otherwise, expect a partly to mostly cloudy night with milder overnight lows as most places will stay in the lower to middle 30s, except for 20s near the Dakota borders. High pressure ridging will be over the forecast area for most of the day Sunday resulting in warmer temperatures. Another upper low and trough move onto the Pacific Northwest coast during the afternoon and evening which will shift the ridge to the east allowing for a southwest flow aloft across the area.
Do expect another LWA to be issued areawide Sunday as upstream winds around base of trough have been gusting well over 40 kts around, and to the north of the panhandle region.
Still seeing an extensive area of AC cigs and cirrus across portions of extreme Ern TX, N LA, and SW AR, ahead of a strong upper trough axis extending S through the TX Big Bend region. Look for the elevated cloud cover to gradually diminish as well from W to E by mid to late afternoon as drier air advects NE ahead of the trough axis as it moves through the region. /issued 1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ Showers and quickly breaking up and little if any thunder expected areawide as cold front just exiting eastern cwa.
209 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 The upper trough that brought all the wind to region was located over the Central Plains today and moving east. As it does a high pressure ridge is building in from west.
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 The center of the upper low continues to track east across northeastern Kansas. This translates to highs in the lower to mid 30s for our Nebraska side, and maybe around 40 in our north central Kansas area.
224 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Early afternoon water vapor/visible satellite imagery placed the intense low pressure system over northeast KS. It will be a benign 24 to 48 hour period weather-wise as a large scale ridge of high pressure dominates the CWA.
433 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 A strong low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of rain, some of it heavy overnight tonight and into early Sunday.
359 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Cloudy and rather chilly conditions today as strong upper trough continues to progress eastwards across the central conus. Early afternoon satellite and surface observations indicated that cold front has made it to Gulf with much cooler air filtering in behind the front. Cold air will continue to work in on the backside of the trough and even with significant cloud cover overnight. Another cool day is in store for Sunday as system slowly moves towards the lower Great Lakes. Lingering cloud cover across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas may keep temperatures several degrees cooler than those areas that have cleared given the spring-time solar angle.
Bias corrected grids seem to have some handle on this and blending the better performing models suggests highs ranging from the low to mid 40s along the KS/NE border to around 60/low 60s across the far southwest and south.
Despite the cooler temperatures and higher humidity, the strong winds are continuing to cause issue for ongoing fires, especially the Rhea Fire in Dewey County. Temperatures tomorrow will be a little warmer than today and winds will not be as strong, but low humidity will spread over the area.
Models this morning still showing a nice warm up from Sunday through the first part of the work week as an upper ridge slides east out into the west central highs plains and improving westerly downslope flow develop.
High pressure aloft across the Great Basin will bring a warming trend to Utah through Sunday.
There is evidence in guidance of a pre- frontal trough late afternoon Sunday passing through, providing a likely chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms, a few with strong gusty winds. Continuing instability aloft with the passage of the jet max may allow for a few thunderstorms embedded with numerous showers until cold frontal passage after midnight.
SEVERE STORMS DEPARTING THE REGION BUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING Rest of today through tonight: Overall the strong cold front is quickly moving through the region and rainfall is slowly pushing into eastern Mississippi. As the trough axis swings through and strong cold air advection moves in tonight, expect any showers, rain chances & clouds to quickly clear from west to east overnight. This will help strong ridging build in and much drier air to filter in.
By sunrise Sunday morning, nearly ideal radiational cooling set up will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s areawide. A few low lying areas may briefly hit the freezing mark. Warmer on Sunday with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.
/issued 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ The upper trough that brought all the wind to region was located over the Central Plains today and moving east. As it does a high pressure ridge is building in from west.
A large low pressure trough will move into the Pacific Northwest early Sunday morning.
There were pockets of sleet earlier in the morning, which essentially melted since temps remained above freezing in the mid 30s.
This activity will shift east with the low and approach the Ozarks late this evening and move across portions of the Ozarks during the overnight hours. The low will also continue to bring unseasonable cold air into the area overnight. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for most of the western Ozarks and southeastern Kansas with the eastern Ozarks seeing temperatures in the lower to middle 30s overnight. A freeze warning remains in effect for tonight for those locations where temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for multiple hours. The low will make a slow progression east through the day Sunday which will make for a cold, blustery day across the area.
125 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the approach of a cold front. The models remain in general agreement that deep cutoff low pressure will emerge from the midwest and dig over the Upper Ohio Region for the start of the new week. The main rain event is progged later Sunday and Sunday night as the systems cold front squeezes eastward under a crossing southerly, moisture-laden jet. QPF amounts remain in dispute with the main point perhaps being that the upslope enhancement appears to capped via a strong inversion resulting from the warm advection on the low level jet. The return to VFR will be short lived as a cold front will move through Sunday night, bringing a return of restrictions to all terminals.
255 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 In the wake of an occluding cyclone over Kansas City, strong NW winds were slowly pulling away from the South Plains. As dry and cool surface ridging builds south into the region overnight, decoupling of winds should ensure a widespread light freeze for all of the area.
Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed the upper low over northern Kansas with the upper jet core punching northeast on the east side of the circulation and implied upper difluence downstream over the Upper MS Valley indicative of increasing synoptic ascent. Snowfall amounts were nudged upwards into central Wisconsin given expectation of less freezing rain potential and a bit higher QPF tonight, hence the expansion of the Warning in this area. Any freezing rain/drizzle threat should be mainly over northeast IA/southwest WI, and this will be dependent on moisture depth. An active and cooler than normal pattern still looks to persist through the coming week.
The latest model data is suggesting the best chance for widespread rain across eastern Kentucky will be from late tonight through the day on Sunday as a cold front moves across the area. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal today and tonight, before cooling off a bit on Sunday after a cold front moves through. Rain showers will be ongoing Sunday evening in an upslope flow/cold air advection regime as the previously mentioned upper low pushes east across the Ohio Valley.
The warmest temperatures on Sunday will be across the northwest CWA, with most locations remaining below freezing. If that happens at MSP, it would break the lowest maximum temperature for April 15, which was 32 in 1951.
328 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Rain chances will increase later tonight and Sunday with the approach of a cold front.
306 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Main upper-low currently centered over northeastern Kansas will continue to push eastward and take on a negative tilt as a ridging pattern builds over the western CONUS. This may include a brief period of freezing drizzle late this evening as temps cool prior to the arrival of deepening moisture availability. In all, low temps tonight will dip to the mid to upper 20s for most areas, with colder values Sunday night dipping into the low to mid 20s for all areas as cloud cover clears the area.
235 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 A potent low pressure system carrying abundant moisture will bring showers through today and tonight with scattered thunderstorms. Widespread showers will continue into Sunday as the low progresses east.
More snow possible midweek then trending warmer by late week. Could see temps begin to warm into the 40s most areas by next Fri/Sat, which along with the higher sun angle should help melt off some of our late season snow. Incoming complex, strong low pressure system will usher in snow overnight into early Sunday morning, forcing terminals to see categories drop into IFR/LIFR categories and/or minimums for long periods of time. As a strong low pressure system slides just south and east of Lk Superior through the weekend, winds will remain strong across Lake Superior.
Surface and upper level low pressure continue to slowly lift northeastward into the Midwest this afternoon, with pressure gradient gradually relaxing across the region. Given clear skies and dry air, min temps will be fairly cold, and readings at/below freezing are expected area-wide. Max temps will warm considerably across the region as upper ridge builds and mid level temps rise, with 60s reappearing across the plains and most interior valleys.
Temperatures should be about 10 degrees warmer, with a lot of melting where there is remaining snow.
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 There will continue to be a tropically connected train of rainfall streaming into/across our eastern third of the FA thru the overnight hours, as the upper Low spins toward us from the west. The occluding surface features will move east of the FA by tmrw morning, and the upper Low will make its pass about 12-18 hours after that. After that, cooler/drier air works in/gradually down/throughout the column. Sunday night lows, despite lingering cloud and wind that will preclude widespread frost, drop to near freezing.
/issued 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Another breezy to windy day with cooler, but still very dry conditions is on tap for west central Texas today. A cold front moved through the area tonight. On the backside of this low, strong northerly flow will persist. Look for highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s with a few readings in the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor, as northerly flow will continue advect in cooler air.
557 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Moisture will increase tonight in the southerly flow on the backside of offshore high pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front.
524 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Rain chances will increase later tonight and Sunday with the approach of a cold front.
A few storms are possible as temperatures fall to near freezing over far southern Lower Michigan to the 40s south of highway 30. In fact little to support additional development until late aftn north of sfc warm front which will buck south later this morning in response to newd ejecting of upstream MCV. Lagging deep layer upper trough will pivot through the lakes Sun night through Mon aftn. This system lifts out slowly through New England Tue with fairly vigorous thermal ridging building quickly east out of the plains ahead of secondary wave digging through the upper midwest. Temperatures should stay above freezing at SBN, so the precipitation should be all rain.
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Currently slow moving cold front was nearly to the Mississippi River with scattered light showers redeveloping out ahead. Temperatures were in the 60s across the area with gusty west winds ushering in cooler 40s and 50s behind the front in Central and Western Arkansas. Morning windchills near freezing for many.
Temperatures in the mid and upper 70s ahead of the convection, dropping to the lower 60s across the western third of the area. Still one impulse to move through the base of the trough that could produce another surge of very heavy rain this evening, so will hold onto the Flash Flood Watch.
Weak high pressure gets pushed east Sunday by a strong Pacific trough.
309 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Upper level analysis has large trof across the central CONUS with closed low over Kansas City. At the surface, high pressure has nosed into the western Dakotas with a warm front across eastern WY.
442 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Upper level analysis has large trof across the central CONUS with closed low over Kansas City. At the surface, high pressure has nosed into the western Dakotas with a warm front across eastern WY.
As northerly based high pressure influences build into the mid state region on Mon night, patchy frost will be possible across eastern portions of the mid state region with patchy frost possible across western portions in the lower lying locations.
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Early afternoon surface map showed low pressure near Springfield, with a cold front extending south and the oscillating warm front east to near Champaign. Have kept a mention of isolated/scattered thunder ahead of the low/cold front, which should be near Champaign by 7 pm. However, as the upper low drifts into western Illinois toward midday Sunday, the showers will be on the increase again. Looks like the 3rd Sunday in a row with some snow potential across the CWA, as colder air is drawn in behind the departing upper low.
Not as cold tonight then max temps Saturday about 10 degrees warmer as winds become more downslope.
Scattered to broken stratocu spreading farther inland this afternoon as atmosphere gradually moistens through the lower levels. Overnight lows in the low-mid 60s inland and mid 60s to around 70 along the immediate coast. Deeper moisture will advect into the region from the south as a low pressure area lifts from the NW Caribbean toward the Florida Straits.