Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WARMER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BEACHES. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO SE/S ON THU AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LAYER SW FLOW WITH IMPULSES APPROACHING THE PENINSULA FROM THE GULF AND SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPR LVL TROUGH INTO THE SE STATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR. BOTH MODELS SHOW FRONT SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS EAST- NORTHEAST EITHER THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION (GFS) OR THE OHIO VALLEY (ECMWF).
WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND HEADLINE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
BEING IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LENDS SUPPORT.
THE CULPRIT IS AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PINE RIDGE AS LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES.
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIND SHIFT AFTER 00Z ALONG WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY. STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING TO WRN KANSAS MIDDAY AND NORTH CNTL KANSAS END OF TODAY. DRYLINE/TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY THAT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MIGHT LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL. CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. MUCH QUIETER PATTERN ENSUES ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND SERVING TO EASE WINDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 917 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016/ SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST NOTABLY WARMER RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TO LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS MIDDLE TN TOMORROW BUT FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT WHEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD AGAIN PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AREAS WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. WENT A LITTLE BIT COOLER AS A RESULT OF LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR REALLY GOOD WARMING BUT IT LOOKS WARMER ACROSS THE WEST.
504 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE FRONT WILL CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND MOVE IT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER TEMPERATURES FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
222 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT STILL STRETCHED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT ESCAPE THE 60S GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
200 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN. WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AND IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE RIVER BOTTOMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING.
340 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 (Tonight and Friday) A near persistence forecast continues tonight and Friday, under an upper ridge.
145 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH THE NORTH WILL START OFF COOLER.
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY HAS BUILT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
348 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 MOISTURE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
High pressure extending from the northeastern US to the Gulf coast will continue to keep our weather quiet in the near term. Afternoon temps will top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and then cool into the lower 70s this evening. Overnight lows should cool into the lower-middle 50s in the east with upper 50s to around 60 in the west. For the day on Friday, a cold front will still be on approach the region from the northwest. South to southwest breezes will take temperatures into the low- mid 80s in the east and mid to upper 80s out in the west.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING THE CU IN CHECK WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO FLATTEN SOME.
241 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN RETROGRADES ALLOWING FOR WESTERLIES TO DOMINATE NORTH HALF OF U.
1143 AM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE YET TO DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT BRING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
300 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
The upper level ridge will remain parked over the area, and may strengthen just a tad. 850mb temperatures also warm a degree or so, so have gone with highs of a degree or two warmer generally. The HRRR tries to produce a few showers in our southeastern counties, but with the upper level high strengthening a bit, there shouldn't be enough coverage to mention anything in the forecast, if they even develop.
431 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING.
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS IT WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER TOMORROW.
228 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. BUT DECOUPLING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWESTERN TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 80S INLAND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT A TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND WAS GENERATING A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SE TEXAS. WITH THE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AS SHOWN ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION TEXAS TECH AND ARW.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW AND BECOME NEARLY STAGNANT GENERALLY OVER THE SRN CWA.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP WARM ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. JUST TO THE EAST OF THAT THE CENTER OF A CLOSED OFF REGIONAL SCALE UPPER RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. BUT THIS IS PART OF SURFACE/LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS BACK TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.
THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
405 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH PCPW VALUES WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. W/V IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SHARP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR NW IOWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF FRONT OF DEWPOINTAS NEAR 70. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PRODUCE A WAVE ON THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
OVER THE PLAINS A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH REACHING THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH 50S AND 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WITH MUCH COOLER COLUMN IN PLACE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 30S OVER THE FAR NW.
/ISSUED 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION.
310 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION TODAY. WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM OR THROUGH NV/CA. AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR THE AB/SASK BORDER TO MT. 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH THE ND/MN AND SD/MN BORDER. AT THE NOSE OF THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE LOW.
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.
150 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
338 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
132 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE S/SE ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER H500 TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD.
339 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 THIS MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE LOW CLOUDS MIXED OUT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN HITTING 90S IN A FEW PLACES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK.
Upper level ridging is expected to build back to the north Mon-Wed with warmer temperatures and quiet weather.
649 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD LAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z. CIGS AOB 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE 12Z-18Z AS LIGHT SHRAS WORK THROUGH AREA WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BREAK UP 18Z-00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING AGAIN AFTER 00Z-02Z AS SHRAS BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN ADVANCING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN BY MORNING. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT MARKING LEAD EDGE OF INCREASED THETA-E WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MOISTURE AXIS/850 MB THETA-E RIDGE SLIDING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO RELAY MOSTLY ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH COLD FRONT.
530 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT LOWS WILL BREACH 50F ON AN ORGANIZED BASIS MUCH OF ANYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. THERMAL BELTS WILL LIKELY BE PRONOUNCED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YIELDING INVERTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS OVER THE RIDGES.
LOW STRATUS WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY MAY A BRIEF APPEARANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS THE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SUGGEST AN IMPROVEMENT IN RAIN CHANCES TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK W- SW MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-RIDGE CENTERED NEAR DEL RIO. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BOOST TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected. High pressure stretching from the eastern seaboard to the Gulf coast will keep our weather quiet through the short term. We'll have plenty of sunshine again today with afternoon temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. On Friday a cold front will approach from the northwest, reaching an Alpena-Sedalia-Lubbock line by evening. Not uncomfortable, but a little warmer and more humid than what we've seen the last few days.
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE RUNNING UP AGAINST A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NE FL. WITH SOME INLAND AREAS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE.
113 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES UNDER EASTWARD SLIDING HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWESTERN TROUGH.
636 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT LOWS WILL BREACH 50F ON AN ORGANIZED BASIS MUCH OF ANYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. THERMAL BELTS WILL LIKELY BE PRONOUNCED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YIELDING INVERTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS OVER THE RIDGES.
Upper level ridging is expected to build back to the north Mon-Wed with warmer temperatures and quiet weather. The other concern is for non convective low level wind shear developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning with the low level jet.
241 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 The frontal boundary now moving into the northern CWA counties with a prefrontal trough Garden City/DodgeCity and the Hays/Great Bend area will continue slowly southeast this evening. The result in a shorter period with much cooler mid 70s through Friday and the weekend as earlier forecasts.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS CONTINUES TO BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
1213 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE PAC NW. MORNING WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL UPSTREAM ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTLINE. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST PVA OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FRI AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. H25 JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 90-100 KTS BY LATE AFTN WITH A COLD FROPA YIELDING EXCELLENT LLVL UPSLOPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING. GFS AND NAM BOTH NEARLY YIELD A CLOSED LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY FEATURE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IN SOME LOCALES WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
337 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REVEALS AN H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER FLORIDA. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR ITS INFLUENCE AND PERPETUATE THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DO FROM WILL DISSIPATE OUT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. CONTINUING WITH RAIN FREE TAFS FOR TODAY UNDER THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING. LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT SHIFT IN RIDGE MAKING FLOW A TAD MORE NORTHEAST.
/18Z TAF CYCLE/ ALL SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AS OF 1730Z WITH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS MIXING OUT INTO HIGHER CEILING CUMULUS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REGAINS CONTROL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX WEATHER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
300 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AS OF MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CONTINUING ON FRIDAY. QUITE A PUNCH OF DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVER COME IN MANY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FINALLY SATURATE UP. THIS IS NOT A HUGELY DYNAMICAL SYSTEM WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RATHER DISJOINTED. VERY WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN THROW A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SKIES.
314 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 JUST A FEW SHOWER NOTED SO FAR OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR JET STREAK AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLING 700MB TEMPS WITH THE UPPER TROF MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS THOUGH A BIT OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN A SMALL POSSIBILITY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN IN A FEW SPOTS. WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TRANSLATES SLIGHTLY TO THE E. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AIDED AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPING WITHIN A MORE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN MAKES ITS WAY EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PERHAPS CLOSING OFF OVER THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
Overnight, lows will dip into the mid 60s-low 70s across the area, with cooler temperatures to the northwest where skies will be clearer and warmer temperatures to the southeast where there will be heavier cloud cover.
238 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ABOUT AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE AIR MASS MODERATE WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS/WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA AND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
232 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VERY WARM. A COLD FRONT WAS WHERE A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM AND LEAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ASSISTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, AND MOST OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE MID 30S LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW INVERSIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, SO ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. NO FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE ALSO GET A WEAK SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.