Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
549 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Sub-average temperature and periodic rain and snow chances are expected through the weekend with areas of crossing low pressure. Increased POPs N of PIT early this morning for snow showers with the approach and passage of a broad upper trough axis, and cold NW boundary layer flow off the Great Lakes. Operational model depictions of the track of the low differ slightly, but would be enough to result in a change in timing of the transition from snow to rain.
936 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 A southwest-northeast orientated cold front near Sarasota will slowly ease southward today. Front tracks southward with showers and a few thunderstorms today and this evening with high pressure following.
With the winds remaining gusty on the ridges temperatures will remain warm overnight at higher elevations tonight, with the Brookings area seeing relatively warm overnight lows as well. On Friday the thermal trough at the coast will move inland, bringing an increase in high temperatures inland, but at the cost the shift of the thermal trough inland will also shift winds onshore by early afternoon, cutting off the heating and resulting in lower temperatures. By Friday afternoon an upper low develops on the northern California cost, with winds shifting to the south in the Sacramento valley and starting to feeding moist air into the region.
Snow showers started off with compacting on the road surface in the high plains, so the snow depth will appear lower to the community compared to using the proper 10:1 to 15:1 snow ratios regarding lowered temps overnight behind the cold front. The dominating 1030mb High over the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning will help create an inversion due to subsidence in the lower levels of the atmosphere Friday morning.
A storm system will bring precipitation into the mountains Thursday afternoon then across much of the district Friday into Friday evening along with much cooler temperatures.
PV filament embedded within the back edge of the mid-level trough axis will gradually lift through the area today. Rebounding temperature profile will be too little to late to support anything warmer than 40s. Model cross-sections across the developing mid- level frontal zone indicate a considerably warmer column aloft compared to yesterday. The DGZ will be elevated and shallower and will therefore lose access to the highest quality moisture, which is outstanding down low (Layer H85-H7 specific humidity ranging from 2.
These conditions may persist through the morning hours, especially along the high plains along the Rocky Mountain Front and across the southwest. Dry and warming air under high pressure then moves in this afternoon, clearing out skies and bringing slightly improved yet still below normal temperatures. Anglin A disturbance will keep isolated snow showers over portions of the region today, but high pressure aloft will cause warmer and drier conditions on Friday with breezy westerly winds.
High pressure will continue to slip off to the east through the period allowing for light southerly winds. High pressure has moved into the Ohio Valley with light southerly winds on its backside keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Front will be south of the state when the period concludes with high pressure building quickly in behind it.
420 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Gusty southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures today, but still a bit below normal in most places. A cold front will move south across the area tonight and Friday morning, bringing a chance of showers near and just north of the front.
Southerly winds will envelop the rest of the Mid-South this afternoon as the high pressure slides off to our northeast. Overnight temperatures will remain a bit warmer than the past few nights, with readings in the 40s areawide. Friday will see increasing clouds as a low pressure system tracks through St. Louis and drags a cold front into our area.
953 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through late Friday.
632 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will continue to slip off to the east through the period allowing for light southerly winds. High pressure has moved into the Ohio Valley with light southerly winds on its backside keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Front will be south of the state when the period concludes with high pressure building quickly in behind it.
443 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Latest surface analysis showed the old frontal boundary over Florida peninsula to the central Gulf and a 1024mb ridge axis from Ohio valley to east Texas. Upper air analysis showed a broad trough over the country with embedded waves over northeast, Great Lakes, and interior northern Rockies. In addition, a positively tilted wave from the Mid- Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley creating a zonal flow from south Texas to Carolinas. Hence, Friday will be our transitional day with slightly warmer temps returning going into the weekend.
(Today through Friday) A warmer day is expected today ahead of a cold front that will move into northwest Oklahoma of the area this afternoon. Although there will be a capping inversion to try to inhibit thunderstorm development, forcing along the cold front will likely be enough for showers and storms to develop late this afternoon and this evening near the front.
-- Snow mainly south of I-96 very late tonight/Friday -- A blend of latest higher res model guidance and ensembles continues to indicate that light snow will develop very late tonight through Friday due to isentropic upglide associated with a low pressure system moving ene across the lower Ohio valley region. -- Moderating trend of temps this weekend -- A southwesterly flow of milder air will develop over the weekend with high temperatures reaching the lower 50s.
A cold front will advance south across the Big Country late tonight, reaching KABI by 10Z. /issued 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Today will be breezy and warmer, with highs this afternoon in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. A cold front will advance south across the Big Country late tonight, and should reach a Sterling City-Coleman-Lake Brownwood line by 7 AM Friday.
High pressure today will keep clear skies and thus VFR conditions. High pressure will push into the south of the CWA today and despite decent upper level forcing there will be no moisture work with for the most part.
TWH Upper trough axis was swinging through the forecast area this morning. Low level downslope gradients build in for Friday for a warmer day, as highs should finally return to near normal values.
421 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 A disturbance will keep isolated snow showers over portions of the region today, but high pressure aloft will cause warmer and drier conditions on Friday with breezy westerly winds.
731 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through late Friday.
307 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Upper trough axis was swinging through the forecast area this morning. Low level downslope gradients build in for Friday for a warmer day, as highs should finally return to near normal values.
857 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Temperature near or below average and periodic rain and snow chances are expected through the weekend with crossing low pressure. Increased POPs N of PIT early this morning for snow showers with the approach and passage of a broad upper trough axis, and cold NW boundary layer flow off the Great Lakes. Operational model depictions of the track of the low differ slightly, but would be enough to result in a change in timing of the transition from snow to rain.
Little/if any change is xpcted in the overall pattern heading into the evening hrs, with a zonal flow pattern prevailing into early Fri, while another weak area of low pressure out of the mid Plains begins to lift towards the ENE. The continued influx of moisture/warmer air will translate into more seasonal lows predom in the mid 40s early Fri, before temps rebound into the lower/mid 70s later in the day.
As of mid morning, the cold front has fully passed through the forecast area, with the edge of the boundary positioned across Lake Okeechobee. Cooler air and plenty of cloud cover will keep temperatures below average today, topping out only in the upper 60s north of I-4, low/mid 70s south of Orlando/Cape Canaveral, and just a glimpse of 80 degrees for Martin County.
A disturbance will keep isolated snow showers over portions of the region today, but high pressure aloft will cause warmer and drier conditions on Friday with breezy westerly winds.
This will support much warmer afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 70s area wide.
Increasing southerly winds with gusts in the 20-30Kt range along with few to scattered high clouds are expected over the CWA today ahead of a cold front forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma tonight. Behind the cold front. /Issued 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Gusty southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures today, but still a bit below normal in most places. A cold front will move south across the area tonight and Friday morning, bringing a chance of showers near and just north of the front.
/issued 357 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb high pressure is positioned from the Yucatan Peninsula to Cuba. Highs increase to the upper 80s and low 90s on Friday with dew points recovering into the lower 70s.
619 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through late Friday.
332 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Weak showers will hug the high terrain of the Northern Rockies through this morning (mainly along the Continental Divide). Temperatures will remain seasonally cool today, however an abundance of sunshine will make it feel just a bit warmer.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 43 73 52 69 / 0 0 0 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 39 72 50 64 / 0 0 0 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 64 39 71 49 65 / 0 0 0 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 34 69 47 61 / 0 0 10 60 40.
High pressure will continue to move east today allowing for return flow across our area, and gradual increasing clouds. Low pressure Friday morning should be just north of KSTL, with a cold front back into southwest MO.
The additional cloud cover and southerly surface winds will keep temperatures much warmer than the last couple of nights.
High pressure remains in control of the weather over the ArkLaMiss region with a very dry airmass noted on this morning's 12z JAN sounding (precipitable water at 0. This will support much warmer afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 70s area wide.
Look for high temperatures to be in the lower 50s, still a bit shy from where we should be in April.
Marine layer clouds will increase and spread into portions of the western valleys tonight as a low pressure system makes its way into Southern California.
VFR conditions and clear skies forecast through the period at all sites as high pressure remains across the forecast area. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 73 52 69 48 / 0 0 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 72 50 64 44 / 0 0 60 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 39 71 49 65 43 / 0 0 60 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 69 47 61 39 / 0 10 60 40 20.
Breaks in the clouds will begin this afternoon, with clearing skies tonight as the main trough axis from this storm moves through the area. Temperatures will rebound 10 to 20 degrees warmer, as a result.
At the same time, a cold front currently in southern Kansas will be moving south into our northern counties between 3 and 6 AM Friday morning.
Weather pattern remains unchanged as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific is placing the forecast area under a cool northerly flow. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures around the Lower Columbia Basin to drop down to around freezing so a freeze warning has been issued.
1257 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Temperature near or below average and periodic rain and snow chances are expected through the weekend with crossing low pressure. High pressure will build into the region overnight downstream of Plains low pressure. Warm air advection will pre-condition the column ahead of the system's warm front, leading to possible onset of pre-frontal precipitation by morning. With temperature north of I-80 lingering in the low-mid 30s for much of the day, precipitation may remain snow longer in this area, and modest accumulation will be possible. Dry weather is then expected through Sat night amid building high pressure.
Temperatures could be a little cooler tonight in areas where there is a little snow and more clearing of skies, mainly in the northwest. Some of the areas with some snow, will be a little cooler and have kept highs a little cooler for the northeast.
The h85 Thermal trough will transition to a thermal ridge (around +3 deg C) by 18Z with southwest winds on the increase 15 to 30kts.
1239 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will build in through Friday.
Overnight lows tonight are still on track to be chilly across the region as thicker cloud cover diminishes and 700mb temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees C below zero settle overhead in the wake of the cold front. but current thinking is any subfreezing temperatures will be short-lived and will just fluctuate right around that 32 degrees mark.
/issued 936 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ A southwest-northeast orientated cold front near Sarasota will slowly ease southward today. Front tracks southward with showers and a few thunderstorms today and this evening with high pressure following.
1228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through late Friday.
Cool surface ridging will pull out of the region tonight ahead of richer southerly flow and dewpoints rising through the 60s. About 5000 feet aloft, a layer of saturated isentropic ascent will gradually thicken and serve to keep stratus fully intact through most of Friday and Friday night ahead of a weak cold front. Some models depict very light QPF (mostly drizzle) Fri morning as stratus lowers to 1500-2000 feet, but realistically this is not a probable occurrence with cloud bases this high, so we'll keep the forecast dry at this time. As dewpoints rise into the lower 70s tomorrow afternoon, PWATs should range from 1. Nonetheless, kept some 20-30 PoPs/showers Fri afternoon for all but the Rio Grande Plains before chances slowly improve Fri night along a cold front now favored to push through much of the region by Sat morning.
We'll be quite a bit warmer than the last few nights with temperatures dropping into the low 40s and a few places in the upper 30s by Friday morning. Expect to see some precipitation enhancement as the upper trough catches up to our frontal boundary overnight tomorrow.
349 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure is built across eastern Kentucky this afternoon on the surface analysis charts. Friday a low pressure system will eject out of the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, as a northern stream positively tilted trough axis out of the northern Plains. This upper level system will help slowly push a cold front across eastern Kentucky Late Friday afternoon and night leading to a good shot of showers across eastern Kentucky.
The broad 500mb trough remains across much of North America.
(This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the cold front late this afternoon across northwest Oklahoma. In addition, the cold front will likely undercut any convection (resulting in a more anafrontal precipitation structure). The highest chance for rain will be near the Kansas/Oklahoma border across north central Oklahoma.
1129 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Temperature near or below average and periodic rain and snow chances are expected through the weekend with crossing low pressure. Increased POPs N of PIT early this morning for snow showers with the approach and passage of a broad upper trough axis, and cold NW boundary layer flow off the Great Lakes. Operational model depictions of the track of the low differ slightly, but would be enough to result in a change in timing of the transition from snow to rain.
Otherwise dry and mostly sunny conditions today with temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Overnight lows only drop into the mid 60s to lower 70s, highs on Friday climb into the mid 80s to near 90 (even with overcast conditions)and even stickier conditions Friday night with lows only bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.
327 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 The upper trough axis currently extends from northern Nevada through central Wyoming then across central North Dakota.
Breezy southerly surface winds for the remainder of this afternoon will persist through the evening hours out ahead of an advancing cold front, that is currently in the far southern portions of Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The cold air will remain in place tomorrow, with highs dropping into the upper 50s and low 60s, 20 to 25 degrees cooler than today.
This trend will continue into this evening before clouds begin to quickly increase across the area overnight as a cold front begins to approach the area. The aforementioned cold front will be the feature of our next round of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to the area Friday afternoon with some lingering showers Friday night.
Mid to upper level moisture will begin to move over Arkansas aloft over the next 24 hours as an upper level storm system and cold front approach the state. The cold front is expected to move across Arkansas from northwest to southeast beginning late Friday morning.
BT Upper trough axis was swinging through the forecast area this morning. Low level downslope gradients build in for Friday for a warmer day, as highs should finally return to near normal values.
The lower ceilings are expected to persist tonight and Friday with some ceiling nearing IFR Friday morning. /issued 357 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb high pressure is positioned from the Yucatan Peninsula to Cuba. Highs increase to the upper 80s and low 90s on Friday with dew points recovering into the lower 70s.
A cold front arriving in the nrn PB around 10Z/Fri will move to I-20 by 12Z and to the e slope of Davis-GDP Mtns around or just after 21Z. Return sly flow Sat AM will result in development of fairly widespread low clouds, there may be a few SHRA? Moisture will be shallow and mixes e thru the PM with gusty w winds and much warmer temps in the dry air and local high winds in the GDP Mtns Sat PM. Warm and dry wx continues thru Tue with increased w winds (especially in the mtns) Tue or Wed depending when the trof passes.
445 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Short Term (Through Friday Night): A cold front pushing southward across the area today is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.
355 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Currently across the Mid-South, we have weak high pressure in place centered over IN and another high centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level charts show zonal flow with a weak upper-level trough over the western Great Plains.
A cold front is progged to edge into northern portions of the area by early Friday morning, reaching HOB around 10Z, then progressing south to FST by around 15Z. Front will enter the region early Friday with passage through the northern half of the forecast area, leading to cooler temperatures once again for the same area that was affected by the last front.
248 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will continue to move east today allowing for return flow across our area, and gradual increasing clouds. Low pressure Friday morning should be just north of KSTL, with a cold front back into southwest MO.
250 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Colorado remains under the influence of upper trof with the band end across northern Utah and Wyoming. Expect 1-2 inches of snow per hour with this band through late afternoon and could see some snow accumulating on concrete surfaces, and especially bridges and overpasses. The main trof axis expected to move through much of the state by later tonight with increasing subsident and drying flow through Friday. With weak ridging aloft on Friday, will see warmer temperatures and plenty of sunshine by afternoon with readings climbing into the 40s over the plains. Cooler temperatures though in areas with the most snow cover. This will result in warmer overnight lows Friday night.
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Weak high pressure in the Gulf is causing zonal flow today and tomorrow.
150 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 The weak cold front has basically become indistinguishable this afternoon as high pressure builds southeast through the eastern corn belt and lower OH valley. The high will slide east into the central Appalachians tonight with a ridge axis southwest into the FL panhandle. Expecting lows in the lower to middle 40s. On Friday, low pressure will have moved into into central IL early in the day with a trailing cold front through AR into north TX. With adequate mixing, expect highs to easily reach the lower 70s in valleys and close to 75 in a few southwest areas, with upper 60s atop the highest elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. The cold front will enter southern middle TN and far northwest AL after 06Z with showers likely along and immediately behind the front.
High pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and will continue east to the Atlantic coast by this evening. Through tonight the ridge will continue to the mid-Atlantic Coast while the upper disturbance moves closer. Friday the onshore flow will pull in gulf moisture around the departing ridge and a weak area of low pressure that develops in the plains and moves toward the midwest.
250 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Short Term (Through Friday Night): A cold front pushing southward across the area today is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.
A cold front will move through KBVO 09Z. Increasing southerly winds with gusts in the 20-30Kt range along with few to scattered high clouds are expected over the CWA today ahead of a cold front forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma tonight. Behind the cold front. /Issued 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Gusty southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures today, but still a bit below normal in most places. A cold front will move south across the area tonight and Friday morning, bringing a chance of showers near and just north of the front.
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 The short term forecast is highlighted by warm, breezy, and dry conditions on Friday before a cold front moves in from the northwest Friday night. North Dakota will be placed in the broad warm sector of this low with warm and dry southwest low level flow overtaking the region.
100 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 (Today through Friday) A warmer day is expected today ahead of a cold front that will move into northwest Oklahoma of the area this afternoon. Although there will be a capping inversion to try to inhibit thunderstorm development, forcing along the cold front will likely be enough for showers and storms to develop late this afternoon and this evening near the front.
Any road impacts should end by Friday afternoon as temperatures warm well above freezing. Only change of note for the late morning update is to slightly slow the higher PoP progression of snow overspreading the area tonight. Some early 12Z guidance depicts a slightly sharper upstream upper trough, which appears to allow for maintenance of low level cyclone across the eastern Great Lakes a bit longer. This trend seems reasonable based on satellite observational trends of this trough this morning. Biggest challenge will be how fast cooling takes place early in the event and how far north intrusion of near/above freezing wet bulb temps edge into the south overnight. The snow will begin to mix with rain Friday morning from south to north as temperatures climb above freezing.
231 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Breezy and mild conditions this afternoon across the area ahead of a cold front that will approach northeast Oklahoma late this evening.
Weak low pressure was along the KS/OK border southwest of Dodge City. A cooler than normal day is expected with highs in the mid 50s.