Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022 A closed upper level low over the Central Plains continues to slowly meander eastward rotating moisture into area. This will hold temps down especially east of the Mississippi River will highs will struggle to reach the upper 50s while locations west of the Mississippi will get into the lower 60s. Low rain chances in the north and northwest through the period Saturday, high pressure will move across the area with sunshine and an east to southeast breeze.
304 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Upper level low pressure analyzed over OK/AR early this morning will continue to pull eastward today as broad upper ridging begins to build over the Desert Southwest. Short wave ridging will begin to move east of the area on Saturday with deeper upper level troughing forming over the western CONUS.
348 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Low pressure will push east from the Ozarks early this morning into the Ohio Valley later today and tonight, then depart to the east on Saturday. The second round is forecast to develop by late morning and early afternoon across mainly western Kentucky and southwest Indiana within a band of marginal surface based destabilization along and ahead of the cold front. Showers wrapping around the back side of the low will remain possible over much of the region through the afternoon, then taper off from west to east tonight. Breezy conditions are forecast to develop in the wake of the cold front this afternoon and continue through tonight and Saturday.
The upper level low continues to track east and a ridge begins to form in the Great Plains, stretching into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will be warm once again with southerly warm air advection and warm air pooling ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast area from the northwest. A broad upper level trough will begin to take hold over the western United States.
Given the lower level temperature profiles which are much warmer and very moist, this strongly indicates that thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and into the evening. High pressure will begin to build into the region Friday morning and allow the skies to start to slowly clear. This cooler air coming in is not that strong and as such, will only keep temperatures near normal for this time of year. By the afternoon Friday, ridging will be in firm control. Saturday will remain quiet and a decent amount warmer as WAA starts to enter the CWA along with with mid and upper level ridging.
Moderate westerly winds will develop by 14/15Z due to a closed low sitting over the Missouri Boothill region.
This evening through Friday night The leading edge of the next longer-wave trough will sweep across NW Wyoming tonight into tomorrow, bringing another round of light rain/snow to the west.
355 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain through Saturday with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly south of PIT, this morning and through the afternoon as a warm front encroaches from the south. Latest model data is indicating the best chance for more substantial rainfall will be this morning with the intrusion of the warm front. This will be in response the low occluding and the track slowly passing along the southern CWA border. Though generally light, localized areas may receive periods of heavier rain as frontogenetic bands develop within the northern quadrant of the low. Rain will taper off Saturday afternoon and evening as the low exits east and high pressure builds in from the west.
104 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain through Saturday with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will increase south of PIT this morning and through the afternoon as the warm front encroaches from the south, aided by better jet support and stronger frontogenesis. This will be in response the low occluding and the track slowly passing along the southern CWA border. Though generally light, localized areas may receive periods of heavier rain as frontogenetic bands develop within the northern quadrant of the low. Rain will taper off Saturday afternoon and evening as the low exits east and high pressure builds in from the west.
Upper-level ridging following the exiting upper level trough will keep things fairly benign Friday into Saturday. Lows will range from the lower to upper 50s.
Ahead of this cold front, strong to severe storms are possible, starting as early as daybreak. The cold front will officially move through late tonight/early Saturday morning. By Saturday evening, an area of low pressure that in part brought showers to the area on Friday should be moving off of the Mid Atlantic coast. Another upper low along the West Coast and upper ridging over the central CONUS constitutes the rest of the block. A northern flow rounding the western side of the eastern low will bring cooler air from high pressure over SE Canada.
The upper level low pressure system that brought the showers and drizzle to the area through the last few days was currently moving out of Oklahoma into Arkansas. Cloudiness associated with the departing low was lingering as far west as the Highway 183/281 corridor. These clouds will likely hang around through sunrise before eroding eastward as the upper level low continues to move away. Expect that areas of fog will try to develop in that area through sunrise but is not expected to become too widespread possibly due to increasing subsidence under the upper level ridge. Low level warm advection will lead to warmer afternoon temperatures across the area, ranging from the upper 80s along the Colorado border to the upper 70s in central/south central Kansas. Increasing southerly winds should hold low temperatures to around 50 or the low 50s.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) As an upper low slides into the eastern US, an upper level ridge will build overhead today into Saturday, setting up our warmest temperatures of the year. Increasing thickness in response to the building ridge, downsloping westerly winds, and clear skies will result in quite a hot afternoon today, with highs in the upper 90s for most. Saturday looks to be even warmer as the 850mb thermal ridge is more centered over the CWA with persistent westerly surface winds. This highly anomalous warmth and very dry conditions trigger fire weather concerns both days, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect for today and a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow.
Recent warm temperatures will be a thing of the past into the weekend with the influence of the cold front.
This weak ridge has resulted in a suppression of moisture, which was confirmed by the KKEY RAOB measuring 1. Temperatures across the island chain are currently hovering around 80 degrease with dew points in the lower 70s.
An upper low is pushing into SW MO/NW AR attm. A few showers and thunderstorms are tracking through NE AR/MO Bootheel Temps are in the lower to mid 60s with light south winds. The upper low will track across northern sections of the Mid-South. Temps will be cooler than normal thanks to the upper low with highs in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Clearing will occur across much of the Mid-South except the TN River Valley where clouds will hang on thanks to cyclonic flow associated with the departing upper low.
Low pressure will push east from the Ozarks early this morning into the Ohio Valley later today and tonight, then depart to the east on Saturday. The second round is forecast to develop by late morning and early afternoon across mainly western Kentucky and southwest Indiana within a band of marginal surface based destabilization along and ahead of the cold front. Showers wrapping around the back side of the low will remain possible over much of the region through the afternoon, then taper off from west to east tonight. Breezy conditions are forecast to develop in the wake of the cold front this afternoon and continue through tonight and Saturday.
Warmer temperatures are expected across the region through Saturday, before an approaching storm system brings cooler and windy conditions for the weekend and into the upcoming week.
443 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022 A developing trough and warm front will bring warming temperatures, near critical fire weather danger, and chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms today. Meanwhile, a developing trough has brought a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to MT early this morning. This wave will push eastward today and move across a developing surface warm front. The mentioned warm front today will bring more warming of temperatures in the 60s and 70s. The warm front stalls across the north tonight, perhaps bringing a few isolated showers at times. Developing low lee of the Rockies will reinforce the warm front already in place. Later in the day a cold front looks to push across the state from west to east.
516 AM MDT Fri May 6 2022 07z surface analysis had developing warm front from eastern MT into central CO. Low level warm air advection will promote highs in the 70s on the plains, 60s over the higher Black Hills. It will push a cold front through the CWA, moving into central SD during peak heating. Moisture return still a question, but most ensemble guidance suggests 1KJ/kg MLCAPE, modest MLCIN, and 50kt 0-6km bulk shear in a narrow band just ahead of the cold front. Period of gusty winds expected ahead (southwest) and behind (west/northwest) the cold front.
725 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 High pressure and dry air have resulted in a mostly clear and calm night across the region, with lows dipping into the 30s by the lakeshores and 20s in some locations inland. The primary concern has quickly shifted to fire weather as Upper Michigan sits under high pressure.
The surface cold front was moving east across the Mississippi River in the Mid-South area. While dynamics remain favorable for organized severe storms, instability values have been the limiting factor thus far, though low-level destabilization is underway, aided by both breaks in the cloud cover and southerly winds in the lower levels. Through noon, we will continue to monitor activity that continues to develop along and ahead of the trough across the western portion of the state as it moves east with time.
As far as any tornado threat, SRH in the lowest levels is there, but in the double digits, so while some of these storms will probably rotate weakly on radar, I see today being very similar to yesterday. We'll see a wind shift later this afternoon as a cold front moves through the mid-state, so this should be the demarcation for any severe threat.
322 AM MST Fri May 6 2022 Seasonably strong high pressure over the region through Saturday will bring the warmest temperatures so far this year with many lower elevation communities likely reaching 100 degrees today and Saturday.
An upper level ridge will begin to build over the area from the west late today into Saturday, with the low level thermal ridge strengthening. Temperatures today will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's maximum temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 90s.
Precipitation this morning has been generally limited to very light rain or drizzle as we await the arrival of the main upper low, which passes well south of the area. As the low pivots eastward we get enhanced lift from the deformation band on the backside of the system, so expect a period of decent rainfall rates this afternoon and evening before precipitation tapers off overnight. If clouds clear out faster than forecast, we could see slightly cooler temperatures tonight. A few showers will linger into Saturday morning as our upper level low departs, giving way to the GLORIOUS ridge that shall usher in the beginning of much warmer pattern.
Temperatures will warm into the mid-70s in the east to the mid-80s in the west as an upper ridge moves into the area with warm air advecting into the region, and breezy southerly winds. An upper level trough pushes across the Rockies through the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will move through the area overnight.
An upper level trough moves through the Ohio River Valley from the Mississippi Valley today. As the cold front makes its way out of the forecast area, some wrap around precipitation may linger across the extreme northern tier of the forecast area Friday night through Saturday. Temperatures are a bit cooler behind the front, running 5-10+ degrees below normal on Saturday. KAL/Atwell The cold front will be southeast of the CWA by late Saturday leaving north to northwest flow in its wake.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Morning clouds will give way to ample sunshine this afternoon as temperatures rocket into the middle to upper 90s for most and the lower 100s for the Rio Grande Plains.
A closed upper level low over the Central Plains continues to slowly meander eastward rotating moisture into area. This will hold temps down especially east of the Mississippi River will highs will struggle to reach the upper 50s while locations west of the Mississippi will get into the lower 60s. Low rain chances in the north and northwest through the period Saturday, high pressure will move across the area with sunshine and an east to southeast breeze.
As the low shifts northeast through the day and precip continues to pivot around, the best chance for measurable rain will be east of I-55, with drizzle continuing elsewhere. Temperatures, currently in the low 50s east of I-57 and mid to upper 50s west of I-57, will not change much through the day. An upper low continues to drop through the northeast corner of Oklahoma early this morning. A couple more widespread rainy periods are expected, one in the morning as this convection passes through, and another further northwest as the upper low wobbles across southern and central Illinois. The rain diminishes from west to east in the evening as the low pulls away.
427 AM PDT Fri May 6 2022 Today will be a little warmer for the mountains and deserts.
538 AM MDT Fri May 6 2022 A series of disturbances will be moving over the PacNW states over the next few days and the first disturbance has already shifted our ridge axis to the east causing broad zonal flow to set up across the CWA. Southwesterly flow will allow warmer air to move in as high temperatures reach well above seasonal values. This system will have good upper level jet dynamics supporting a trough and relatively weak surface cold front. As the trough/front moves through, some light precip is possible along the CO/WY border before moving into the northern valleys and mountains in the afternoon hours. More clouds than sun looks to be the rule though temperatures will be similar to what we see today as that southwesterly flow keeps pumping in warmer air.
/Updated at 0716 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/ Currently, A closed upper low was over Northern Arkansas while ridging was over the Western Caribbean Sea. Through 10 am, expect showers to continue to develop and move east, this activity will have potential to slowly intensify with time along and ahead of the trough, which seems to delineate a decent low-level airmass gradient compared to the analyzed cold front to the northwest.
510 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain through Saturday with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly south of PIT, this morning and through the afternoon as a warm front encroaches from the south. Latest model data is indicating the best chance for more substantial rainfall will be this morning with the intrusion of the warm front. This will be in response the low occluding and the track slowly passing along the southern CWA border. Though generally light, localized areas may receive periods of heavier rain as frontogenetic bands develop within the northern quadrant of the low. Rain will taper off Saturday afternoon and evening as the low exits east and high pressure builds in from the west.
734 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Rain through Saturday with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Low pressure will continue to propagate through the OH Valley today, through Saturday. Waves of rain showers are likely on and off all day, through tonight in association with pivoting low pressure. Rain will taper off Saturday afternoon and evening as the low exits east and high pressure builds in from the west.
1017 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 The 12z sounding at KEY sampled a formidable subsidence inversion based at around 925 mb, with noticeable rising geopotential heights in the low- and mid-levels. This is a response to the quasistationary trough over the Bahamas for the past couple of days slowly dissipating as it finally streks eastward. Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, with temperatures already in the lower 80s at most island communities.
/issued 304 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ Upper level low pressure analyzed over OK/AR early this morning will continue to pull eastward today as broad upper ridging begins to build over the Desert Southwest. Short wave ridging will begin to move east of the area on Saturday with deeper upper level troughing forming over the western CONUS.
617 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022 (Today) The upper low is currently moving across far northeast OK, with the bulk of the precipitation shifting east of the forecast area.
Therefore, have left the High Wind Warnings as is for portions of Central and North Central Montana through late this afternoon/early this evening. While no current High Wind highlights exist further to the south of the High Wind Warning, portions of Southwest Montana (i.
745 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A breezy, warm and rather humid day expected across the region ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 311 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022/ High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today. Interior areas will see high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
Strong gusty winds and much cooler temperatures can be expected through the Mother's Day weekend with periods of snow showers in the Sierra.
Periods of rain and cooler temperatures will persist through Saturday morning, with the heaviest rain across Del Norte county.
502 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 High pressure and dry air have resulted in a mostly clear and calm night across the region, with lows dipping into the 30s by the lakeshores and 20s in some locations inland. The primary concern has quickly shifted to fire weather as Upper Michigan sits under high pressure.
Otherwise, ceilings are expected to be primarily MVFR through mid to late morning before VFR conditions take over thanks to mid- level high pressure. /issued 425 AM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Morning clouds will give way to ample sunshine this afternoon as temperatures rocket into the middle to upper 90s for most and the lower 100s for the Rio Grande Plains.
For the rest of the area, a synoptic lee trough will develop over the KS/CO border today as mid level W-NWrly flow develops over the region. The warmest temps over the plains will develop along the lower Ark Rvr Valley, with upper 80s anticipated.
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL 1019 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A short wave ridge is promoting hot and stable weather conditions across southern Florida this morning. Instead, the mid-level short wave ridge seems to flatten during the next couple of days while the western edge of the Atlantic high remains in control of the lower levels. The influence of the decaying boundary seems to mainly be shifting the low level flow further to the south/southwest and keeping low level moisture in place for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. By Saturday, the Atlantic ridge axis migrates southeast into the Bahamas as the remnants of the aforementioned decaying front reach the area.
345 AM MDT Fri May 6 2022 A series of disturbances will be moving over the PacNW states over the next few days and the first disturbance has already shifted our ridge axis to the east causing broad zonal flow to set up across the CWA. Southwesterly flow will allow warmer air to move in as high temperatures reach well above seasonal values. This system will have good upper level jet dynamics supporting a trough and relatively weak surface cold front. As the trough/front moves through, some light precip is possible along the CO/WY border before moving into the northern valleys and mountains in the afternoon hours. More clouds than sun looks to be the rule though temperatures will be similar to what we see today as that southwesterly flow keeps pumping in warmer air.
233 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Through Saturday: We're experiencing a breezy, but otherwise mostly clear and pleasant, afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning. A broken cloud deck has been pesky across parts of north MS through the day as the upper low continues to pivot across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and high res guidance suggests a few associated light showers may sneak into the Golden Triangle area; thus low PoP scattered sprinkles were added to the forecast for that area just for the early evening. Daytime temps should creep back up a few degrees tomorrow as low level heights begin to increase again in the wake of the departing trough.
The low to our northwest is driving mid level impulses through our area, one wave contributing to a north to south orientated band of showers over central North Dakota which has remained steady as it moved from west to east since this morning. The low off the Pacific NW coast will move inland tonight and into the Northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday morning. These winds will transport moisture into the area, with sfc TDs increasing to the low to mid 50s roughly along to east of Highway 83 in central ND. Along with the increasing boundary layer moisture, warmer air will also move in with widespread 70s and low 80s for highs tomorrow. Southwest flow aloft will continue to dominate, bringing multiple low pressure systems through the Dakotas.
306 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for the 7 days. Slightly cooler temps anticipated on Sat night, with lighter winds and clearer skies, wl support lows in the l/m 20s to l/m 30s most locations, with some frost likely.
1221 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 (The rest of today ) Low clouds continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning on backside of departing upper low.
The cold front will be crossing western South Dakota during the period of peak heating on Saturday afternoon.
239 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon with a front extending from the low into the Carolinas.
Temps will be above normal, expect near Lake Michigan where persistent onshore flow will keep temps much cooler than inland locations.
218 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. Saturday will be cooler and drier with a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the northeastern Midlands.
High temperatures today will be cooler in areas under clouds. In areas west of the Missouri River, skies are mostly free of clouds and temperatures are in the high 60s to low 70s. As the upper level trough south of us moves out we remain in an upper level ridge pattern. There is an upper level low moving through Canada reaching down through ND to bring a slight chance of light showers in the northern counties this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient moves through Saturday as a cold front attempts to move east bringing higher wind gusts throughout the day.
A short wave ridge is promoting hot and stable weather conditions across southern Florida this morning. Instead, the mid-level short wave ridge seems to flatten during the next couple of days while the western edge of the Atlantic high remains in control of the lower levels. The influence of the decaying boundary seems to mainly be shifting the low level flow further to the south/southwest and keeping low level moisture in place for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. By Saturday, the Atlantic ridge axis migrates southeast into the Bahamas as the remnants of the aforementioned decaying front reach the area.
255 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Dry weather continues Saturday morning as upper level ridging remains over region.