Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front has cleared the CWA early this morning with breezy northwest winds in its wake as cooler air begins filtering in from the north. Even cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday with 850 mb temps remaining in the single digits. This low could also generate some shower activity over the far east and will leave in small chance POPs. Highs will likely only reach the lower 60s across eastern areas on Saturday, which is well below normal.
1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A surface cold front was sinking southward across Kansas during the predawn hours. The front will continue to push further south with cooler/drier air overspreading the region as northwest flow aloft provides a decent push on the frontal boundary.
143 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Aviation A cold front will push south through the area this morning bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less humid air will filter in behind the front this evening and tonight.
/Today through Tonight/ The cold front is along a line from near Dubuque to Des Moines to near Clarinda and continues to move off to the southeast with a cooler and drier airmass arriving behind the front as winds switch to the northwest. The stronger thunderstorms were over north central Missouri as of 9z with much more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lingering between the stronger storms and the cold front. Still, trended slightly cooler with lows for Saturday morning, but not as cool if winds were very light.
The better moisture and instability this morning is located ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving through the Sandhills.
Coverage will continue to increase late this afternoon and into the evening as the surface cold front in southern Ontario begins dropping toward the area and interacts with a very moist airmass. Complex upper pattern in the short term and beyond with a broad trof over the eastern third of the country and a ridge in the western Atlantic.
Diurnally driven cumulus have moved into the area this afternoon associated with northwesterly flow aloft advecting a cooler airmass into the region. With high pressure and a drier atmosphere in place, temps tonight will be quite cool overnight dropping to the mid to upper 40s for areas north of I-80 and low 50s south. Currently have highs in the low to mid 70s in the west central portions of Nebraska and the upper 70s in Kansas and the northeastern zones in Nebraska. This region of cooler temps may be altered somewhat as confidence increases on where the cloud layer will set up.
This makes sense as there is some subsidence in the wake of a departing synoptic trof across the Northern Plains. High pressure will build in as well through the day.
This milder airmass is resulting in cooler temperatures district wide. Currently at Grand Junction Regional Airport it is 89 degrees which is 8 degrees cooler than it was 24 hours ago. On average temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler around the area than what was observed 24 hours ago. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned along the California coast with a low pressure system diving south from Saskatchewan into North Dakota.
Because surface winds have veered more to a southwest direction, the wind flow has become more unidirectional and lessened the low level directional shear. As the remnants of Cindy pulls off to the northeast towards the mid- Atlantic states, a cold front will get pulled southward tonight and into extreme north Alabama by sunrise Saturday. The presence of the cold front will keep scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across north Alabama overnight.
Brusda An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies over the weekend.
Additional weak low level troughing settling south toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the day should be rain-free for most areas.
Short Term (Now through Saturday night): A break in the oppressive heat is noted moving into the short term as the summertime H5 ridge finally gets nudged back to the west. During the next 24 hours, the inverted trough currently along the Yucatan Peninsula will move west across the western Gulf, drawing much more moisture into south Texas.
251 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A cold front that is unusually strong for late June is continuing to move south across southeast Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon. As the pattern changes slowly through the week, the highest rain chances (though not particularly high) will shift to northern Oklahoma, and finally to eastern Oklahoma by Friday. Another cold front may bring more rain/storms for next Friday and the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 73 83 63 / 80 80 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 70 81 61 / 70 90 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 71 82 60 / 80 90 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 69 80 59 / 50 90 30 10 TN.
High pressure will produce dry and cool conditions headed into the weekend. As the high shifts east, expect warmer temps to return with the southerly flow.
257 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Hydro A cold front will push south through the area this morning bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less humid air will filter in behind the front this evening and tonight.
Mid level ridging will hold on tonight despite a cold front and supporting mid level trough moving through the Tennessee Valley. Lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 70s.
The latest 24 hour trend indicates much cooler conditions this morning. The cooling is likely attributed to the increase marine layer and a breaking down of the strong high pressure. The cooler temps can also be found in the hills as well, but thermal belts are still active with temps in the 70s and low 80s.
Slowly moderating airmass, thus low temperatures near or a few degrees warmer than Friday night.
Saturday, expecting it to be warmer, with some more sunshine across eastern part of the CWA.
The greatest low-level shear will be found across west Tennessee, northern Mississippi and north-central Alabama today while the higher amounts of available instability appear to be found from northern and eastern Mississippi into west-central and northern Alabama.
Temperatures were rising slowly through the 50s and into the lower 60s at noon, thus temperature forecast appears on track as well. Continued breezy today with scattered late afternoon and evening showers across the north central and east as a weak trough of low pressure moves through from Manitoba/Saskatchewan. GOES 16 non-operational water vapor imagery nicely shows cutoff upper lows upstream over southwest Ontario and central Saskatchewan, both slowly drifting southward in broad cyclonic flow aloft. These features will help maintain the deep upper trough over the Great Lakes region, leaving the Northern Plains in continued cool northwest flow. Stratus deck currently in place over much of the state, including some isolated showers, will gradually erode during the day, though linger farther east closer to upper low.
"Cooler" temperatures forecast for Saturday as highs will be 6 to 9 degrees below Friday highs, ranging from 95 to 100. The other significant development in this portion of the forecast will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that are anticipated late tonight through Saturday as broad 500 mb low pressure forms and persists over the western Gulf of Mexico.
While the main cold front is well south of KS across north TX, enough elevated instability via MUCAPE values near 500 J/kg between 600-700 hPa exists to sustain convection. This will result in a window opening night with cooler temperatures via values in the lower to mid 50s expected. Although the lee trough will begin to deepen enough by Saturday afternoon to flip winds to the southeast, cool and dry air will remain in place.
However, chances of precipitation will be highest over the International Border region due to a stronger corridor of isentropic upglide as the mid-level trough passes to the south. Mid-level winds will be westerly towards the mid-level trough, which should ride upward over the isobaric surfaces, causing this isentropic lift. Low temperatures tonight will once again be cool as we remain in this northwesterly, cyclonic flow, as lows approach the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area, which are just slightly cooler than seasonal normal. Same story for Saturday with the high temperatures, as highs remain cooler than normal, with values ranging from the upper 50s across the Iron Range, and into the lower to mid 60s over the south.
The main shield of rain from the remnants of Cindy has now crossed the Tennessee River with the center of low pressure just east of the Mississippi River in western Tennessee. Ahead of the rain broken skies have allowed the tropical air mass to warm into the low to mid 80s along the I-65 cooridor.
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish from northwest to southeast later this morning into this afternoon as a cold front tracks southeast across the region. Drier and cooler conditions can be expected tonight through the weekend behind the cold front.
area are in the lower to middle 50s and that drier air will be filtering in tonight. An upper level ridge over the southwestern U. and a trough over the Great Lakes Region will put the Missouri Ozarks region in a northwest flow this weekend.
Meanwhile, a cold front that is currently located across Southwest Missouri will push southeastward into Northeast Arkansas. although it seems to have the low/Cindy a bit too far North. However as the low/Cindy moves to the Northeast. After Cindy moves out of the area this evening and a cold front shifts through the area tonight there does not appear to be any enhanced chance of rain for the next 7 days.
/issued 328 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ High pressure looks to continue to dominate the weather pattern through the weekend.
239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies over the weekend.
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will weaken tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cold front will progress southward through HOB late this afternoon, and reach FST this evening. /issued 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ Generally northerly flow aloft is expected to continue through the next seven days with a nearly stationary upper ridge centered across the southwest United States. It will be another day of significant heat across much of west Texas as 850 millibar temperatures soar with aid from compressional heating south of an advancing cold front. Thunderstorms will also be possible by this afternoon across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico, closest to the southward advancing cold front. Tonight still appears to be a stormy one as the aforementioned strong cold front plunges south into the region with a strong upper level disturbance.
256 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Cooler and less humid air will settle across the region tonight.
244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 PV lobes rotating around a broad Northern Plains longwave trough provided enough support for isolated showers across Nebraska and Kansas today, but these showers were on a downward trend and having a minimal impact on the sensible weather. North to northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph behind a departing cold front funneled Canadian air southward into the region and helped keep highs in the 70s to around 80 today. A high pressure ridge building southward down the High Plains will bring clear and cool weather tonight and tomorrow with lows tonight in the mid 50s and highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to around 80 (climatological high/low for Topeka is 87/66). with the broad mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes region resulting in northwesterly flow aloft.
624 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
Late this morning through the afternoon coverage will increase as a mid level short moves through the area and the surface cold front currently over southern Ontario drops south. A deep southwest flow is pumping very warm moist air into the region ahead of a tropical depression and a cold front. The cold front has slowed enough that the heavy rain with the depression probably will get into northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. Depression hits the NJ coast late tonight pulling the cold front out of the area. Saturday Precip chances drop to chance but still some forcing with short waves aloft and a secondary cold front combined with northwest cold air advection. Complex upper pattern in the short term and beyond with a broad trof over the eastern third of the country and a ridge in the western Atlantic.
436 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Broad upper trough remains across the central CONUS today with an upper level just north of North Dakota. Base of the upper trough/jet is pushing across East River into the upper Midwest.
324 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Currently, sat pics indicate an upper level low over central Saskatchewan. At the surface, cool and dry high pressure was along the Canadian and Montana Front Range, with gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph at times bringing cooler air into the region. Tonight the upper low is forecast to dive southeast into the ND/MN border by sunrise Saturday. An attendant cold front will accompany the upper low and bring a reinforcement of cool, dry air to our area. There is a hint of a possibility of isolated showers in the Bottineau County/Turtle Mountain area tonight with the upper low and cold front. We can expect northwest winds to decrease to about 10 to 15 mph tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
354 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A cold front will cross the area this evening.
239 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 High pressure will settle in to the Western High Plains with the gradient slackening just a bit over the area. Likely a couple degrees warmer but still some upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations as clouds will be less than today.
530 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Water Vapor/Regional Radar Mosaic imagery this afternoon featuring a mid-level trough and associated scattered shower activity swinging eastward through MN. Looking for this trough and showers to continue rotating east into our area later this afternoon into this evening. For the rest of tonight, plan on partly cloudy and cool conditions with lows dipping into the lower/middle 50s. A rather vigorous mid-level trough/strong 700-300mb pv-advection will drop through the area for Saturday, bringing with it widespread shower/scattered thunderstorms by afternoon lasting into the evening.
Overnight mins in the low to mid 70s. Ridge will continue over the area through a deep layer on Saturday, keeping rain chances below late June normals with limited moisture and relatively warm temps aloft.
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 High pressure moving in this afternoon should provide a very pleasant few days.
With an upper low moving in late tonight, the morning will be chilly with lows in the 40s and a northwest wind, with afternoon gusts to 25-30 mph.
Cold front had moved south of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa early Friday morning, however a few showers and thunderstorms trailed the front, affecting southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa through about 4 AM.
229 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Breezy northeast winds will continue to subside as high pressure builds into the region. Below normal temperatures will linger into the weekend across the area with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 50s/around 60.
Northwest flow aloft behind departing trof will prevail through Wednesday.
337 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 A weak frontal boundary stalls south of the area today while high pressure builds to the north. By tonight, a wave of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary south of the region.
The latest H5 analysis depicts an upper ridge off the Atlantic seaboard with an upper low centered over Minnesota and associated trough extending southwestward through the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. A better chance for showers and storms will exist overnight as the upper low migrates to central Iowa and the trough axis centers over the local region with overnight lows in the 50s. The upper low begins to move over the region on Wednesday, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms being in the morning as the trough axis migrates east out of the area. By the afternoon the low becomes centered just over the region, inhibiting highs from reaching the 70s in most locales.
358 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure ridge will bring mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s for today.
239 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 The upper level low dominating much of the CONUS weather pattern has moved only slightly southward into central MN this morning. Cyclonic flow was driving a cold front southward through the Rockies and Central Plains, and this feature was just entering the northern TX Panhandle as of this writing. The cold front will be moving through the forecast area this morning, bringing yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms to those who missed out yesterday. Enjoy the cool, somewhat damp day, because as the edge of a ridge starts to build in tomorrow, temperatures will rise quickly.
Elongated upper trough axis extends from Ontario/Quebec back into the upper Midwest. Broad plume of better moisture stretches from the plains into the Midwest/lower Great Lakes ahead of the low. Upper trough deepens/closes off while migrating down through the Midwest/mid Mississippi River Valley through tonight.
252 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Weak high pressure will build south of the region today and will hold over the region tonight and Wednesday as low pressure passes well offshore.
Then as a low pressure system over the Midwest swings southward, a cold front will be pushed through the forecast area this evening into tonight. /NF/ Wednesday through Memorial Day: A cold front will be in the process of exiting the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday morning. This is due to the closed low continuing to swing east southeast from the Mid-South region through the Tennessee Valley, squeezing out any lingering moisture across the region in the process.
355 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A cold front will push south across the area today, while an upper low will move south from Minnesota into northeast Arkansas by late Wednesday. A few showers may develop in northwest Arkansas Wednesday due to the cold air aloft associated with the nearby upper low.
Cold front clearing the SE zones early this morning, accompanied by a few light showers and a NWly wind shift. Upper low in northern Minnesota currently will drop due south into Iowa today, enhancing the NW flow, at the surface and aloft, over SW KS.
255 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will result in a period of mainly dry weather through Wednesday.
320 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning indicated a well-defined upper low across northern Minnesota. The upper low will move southward across Minnesota and Iowa today and into the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. A few showers may linger on Wednesday before the upper low slides south and east of the area. However, temps will remain on the cool side with highs in the low to mid 60s.
An upper level ridge will hold on for one more day providing another hot afternoon here in the Rogue Valley. A stronger marine push is expected tonight into Wednesday morning in response to an upper trough swinging across southern BC and Washington. These clouds should erode fairly quickly by Wednesday afternoon, but it will be much cooler area wide with temperatures inland around 10-15 degrees lower compared to Tuesday. Instability ahead of the trough is paltry, but there is some (250-500 J/KG) oriented from west to east across extreme southern Siskiyou/Modoc Counties.
306 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations. an upstream ridge oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada.
249 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Today through Wednesday An active weather pattern continues for the next couple of days as an upper trough digs into the Gulf States. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday, the main trough axis moves into the area, bringing another round of rain/storms. At this time, models hint at the possibility of 2000+ J/kg instability building into the southeastern counties with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, which could support some stronger storms as the main trough axis moves in. As the trough axis approaches, upper level diffluence will increase and an upper level jet strengthens by Wednesday morning. In addition any severe threat, the flooding potential will continue with any rainfall along the main trough axis.
321 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will move off the east coast later Today.
628 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east today and tonight.
452 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 A weak frontal boundary stalls south of the area today while high pressure builds to the north. By tonight, a wave of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary south of the region.
Cold front clearing the SE zones early this morning, accompanied by a few light showers and a NWly wind shift. Upper low in northern Minnesota currently will drop due south into Iowa today, enhancing the NW flow, at the surface and aloft, over SW KS. Meridional flow over North America, with Kansas sandwiched between a strong closed low near St. Louis and a ridge axis over the southern Rockies.
350 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low moving southward across MN. As the upper low moves southward today, best chance for light showers will continue to be across the east as models indicate. Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as upper level ridging begins to build across the Dakotas and 925/850 mb temps begin to rise.
The passage of the cold front tonight will usher in drier/quieter period of weather for the area through the rest of the week. 41 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which should push off the coast late tonight/early Wednesday morning.
Radar shows light echoes across the higher terrain, migrating into the adjacent lower elevations. The cold front will feature a burst of strong winds from the north gusting to around 40 mph. There will be some more mixed snow and rain across the higher elevations, although any accumulating snow will probably be above 8000 or 9000 feet. In northern El Paso County, there will be a brief time around the Monument and Black Forest area when the temperatures settle to near freezing early morning, but not worthy of a freeze highlight. Tuesday, north to south all all levels on the back side of an upper low across the Mississippi Valley.
The main driver for the weather over the next several days is an upper level low over the central US. Cooler and drier air towards sunrise on Wednesday with temps falling into the 50s north of the I-10 corridor and 60s to the south.
325 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures, but unsettled weather will start to return on Wednesday. Model solutions have had substantial difficulty over the past few days managing the depiction of the digging and deepening of the mid/upper lower from the upper Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley.