Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A FOGGY START TO THE DAY AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS CREATED A DOME OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW HAS PROVIDED A LITTLE MOISTURE FLUX. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. MLCAPES PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 100S BUT FORCING. CLOUD COVER AND A PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
41 SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IT EXITING THE AREA BY 18Z TUE TO 00Z WED WITH A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN DIRECTLY BEHIND IT. THIS BUILDING RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SERN U. THE RIDGE ACTUALLY GETS REINFORCED THU AS ANOTHER. STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SECOND RIDGE WILL HELP CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS LOW WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO PASS THRU ILN/S FA MONDAY EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND APPROACHING FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND OCCLUDE AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO FAR NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR US TO BE IN THE RRQ. TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST PUTTING THE AREA INTO THE CONVERGENT SIDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DELTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE DELTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
304 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Mild temperatures were in place across the region early this morning in advance of a cold front that was moving across Kansas and northern Missouri. Once the front moves through the area, a slightly cooler airmass will filter into the Ozarks for today. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 40s as the cooler air moves into the region.
TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN INTO NW KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ENOUGH FORCING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
850 MB RIDGING WAS CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. SOME RIDGING ALSO NOTED AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS NEAR 11 C. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND WARM 850 TEMPS. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS SE TX. SFC CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 43 A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS /10 TO 15 KNOTS/ OVER THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOME RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY WEATHER.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.
1230 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 DID ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST DIRECTLY BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO UPDATED DEWPOINTS WITH A NARROW SWATH OF LOWER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WE HAVE A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS STILL FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOCATIONS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS GOING TO BE DRY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS N/NW FROM MEX. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY.
301 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 The main forecast issue for today is precip potential with a southeastward moving cold front. The cold front was over northwest Missouri early this morning. The RUC/NAM/HRRR and a couple of cam models are all in strong agreement the front will extend from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Missouri Bootheel at 21z.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
CHANGED THE START TIME TO 11 AM AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE TO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES 25-35 DEGREES COOLER TDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YDA.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. THE FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WINDS WAS RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COULD ONLY GET A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS. THE SREF/GFS HITS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (26KTS (30MPH) FOR 1 HOUR OR MORE OR GUSTS 45 MPH OR MORE ANY DURATION).
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KPBI THIS EVE AND NEARING KAPF WITH BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF IT. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE SHREVEPORT AREA THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL CRANK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH AFTER MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OR DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH TODAY NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH. A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ASSURED WITH AN ABNORMALLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. OR ON THE ORDER OF 15-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESUME MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD SURGE BACK TO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S.
A high pressure ridge is expected to begin to build into the region behind the front. Temperatures will take brief dip behind the cold front with highs expected to be in the 60s.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OWING TO A COMBINATION OF THE LATTER ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK FLANKING THE UPPER PORTION OF THE CYCLONE MIGRATING EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTS -- TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT -- THE DEEP CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
429 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. IT LOOKS LIKE NCEP/WPC MODELS INITIALIZED AND VERIFIED TOO MOIST AND TOO COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID LAYERS. POLAR RIDGE CONTS TO HOLD FIRM ACRS THE SERN US AND STILL EXTENDS ACRS MUCH OF THE GOMEX AND CAN AGAIN SEE A FAILURE FOR PRECIP TO DVLP ALG SWD TRAILING CDFNT LT THU SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN W/STG CONSENSUS TRENDS CONCERNING CURRENT SYS IN THE SHRT TERM.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.
1124 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SLOWLY RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT WILL BE COOLER OVERNIGHT AS LOW TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR RAWLINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE. THE GJT-CYS MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 12 MILLIBARS. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7 MB/3HR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE WNW WINDS OF 30-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 50+ KTS ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A SECONDARY WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
WATER VAPOR AND HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED ON OF THESE SYSTEMS WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN TRAILING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOWS HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN FAVORED LOW AREAS OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT IN THESE AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ACROSS LARGE AREAS REMAINS LOW. A BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN THE CARDS THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CONGEALS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAVES A WARM AND DRY RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
A DRY COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE EAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL FORCE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THERE AND BRING A RATHER SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.
205 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 AM. BUT IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP MESSAGES SIMPLE DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING RATHER THAN CANCELING AND REPLACING WITH A WIND ADVISORY. BUT OF MORE IMPACT MAY BE THE HIGHER WINDS THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE IN TO THE EVENING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 51 68 53 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 47 65 51 / 0 0 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 48 65 52 / 0 0 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 44 64 49 / 0 0 10 30.
328 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.
412 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SLEET MIXED IN WITH SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY HAS BEGUN TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM A SLOW MOVING. ALREADY SEEING A FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT THINKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW.
1002 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
600 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A cold front currently located from near Springfield to Bloomington will continue to progress eastward today. Many locations will see cooler temperatures in the afternoon than the morning as a result. Cooler air will gradually settle in from the north behind the boundary. A cold front near the Wabash river at 00Z/6 pm today will continue to slowly press southeast toward the Ohio river tonight and likely continue rain chances behind the front tonight though diminishing nw of the IL river. Meanwhile 1041 mb Canadian high pressure over the Dakotas will ridge eastward into the upper Great Lakes regions this weekend.
1020 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 WARM AND PLEASANT FRIDAY ON TAP AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A BIT ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA SO MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE 70 MARK AND LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 630 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015/ DRY AND MILD SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS SUIT. WILL SEE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION.
Temperatures will start out this morning in many locations warmer than the normal highs for the date, which are in the low to mid 50s. Big changes lurk just on the horizon, however, as an elongated area of rain lies to our northwest, stretching from the Great Lakes to central Texas, along a strong cold front. Louis were in the low 60s, while just 100 miles north, Hannibal, MO was in the upper 30s.
SINCE IT WOULD BE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN KANSAS.
THIS EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH NOW OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. BEST MIXING AND WAA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FORECAST HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE LOWER 30S. COOLER ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A COL DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. AND A S/WV RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO DRY. FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS BROAD TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SWINGS OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
The Northern Rockies remains parked between strong high pressure over British Columbia and a large low pressure system, the same one which brought snow and cold to the area two days ago, rotating near Nevada and Utah.
858 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
630 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 DRY AND MILD SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS SUIT. WILL SEE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION.
Temps across the CWA are expected to remain above freezing today, perhaps not by much. However, freezing temps are expected to filter into nrn portions of the CWA late tonight.
736 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong high pressure ridge along the Piedmont, providing east-northeast winds across our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a ridge axis to our west, with our region under the dry, sinking region downstream of this ridge.
531 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF I44, WITH FZRA/PL ALSO IMPACTING GAG/WWR. SOME FREEZING. THE FREEZING LINE HAS NOW MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS CAA PEAKS.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSISTENT CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A COL (VERY LIGHT WINDS) OVER THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
low centered over NW Utah and a ridge extending NE across the SE U.
COULD ASSIST IN THE FORMATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE S CENTRAL AND E THROUGH THIS MORNING.
957 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION SINKS TO THE SOUTH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL ND THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND INTO NW MINNESOTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK INTO SD TONIGHT. PATCH OF LOWER CIGS OVER NORTHEASTER ND SHOULD ADVECT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OUT OF REGION. SW FLOW INCREASES AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S AS FULL SOLAR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Another cold front will push south of the Interstate 10 corridor by early afternoon. A cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and set the stage for additional rain and the potential for freezing rain or sleet across our northwestern counties. The cold front has pushed south this morning into West Central Texas and currently lies near a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Temperatures along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor will likely fall to near the freezing mark this afternoon and tonight; however, freezing rain or sleet will likely be limited to our western Big Country counties, for locations mainly along and northwest of a line from Sweetwater, to Anson, to Haskell.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH THETA-E TROUGH PUSHES AND HOW FAST.
708 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 AVIATION COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN.
644 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH DRY AIR STILL BEING BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF ARIZONA OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS DRY AIR AND THE RELATIVE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CWA PRECIP FREE INTO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH A COOL AIRMASS CREATING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
356 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CUT-OFF AND SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTAINS TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO NEAR PAGOSA SPRINGS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OVER WRN CO WILL MOVE LITTLE AND BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WHICH WILL HELP AID PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAN JUANS. AND OTHER HIGH RIDGES OF CENTRAL CO. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS IS STILL UNUSUALLY LOW.
THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO IS ONE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS DEPICT THESE WAVES BUT TRENDED THE POPS WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS MORE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST ONES.
559 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS WE DEVELOP A DRY SLOT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. IT APPEARS THAT WE MIGHT BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE THERE IS WARMER AIR ALOFT. SO I AM GOING ALL FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE SLIGHT/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS IN OUR SOUTH.
646 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND YIELD TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND THE RETREAT OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE MILD WSW FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE UPPER LOW UNDER THE BLOCK IS MADE TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST AND EVENTUALLY UP THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES BY MID WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE FOR A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION TO SWING THROUGH AND BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ARIZONA LATER TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO MORE S/WVS MOVE THROUGH THE LOW POSITION OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX. A BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS TAPPED INTO A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SANDRA.
635 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE STATE (IT IS LATE NOVEMBER AFTER ALL) AND THE GOING SKY GRIDS ARE LIKELY ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.
HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER HIGH TEENS BELOW ZERO IN SUCH LOCATIONS AS ENCAMPMENT. ELK MOUNTAIN AND ARLINGTON WITH GUSTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 20MPH RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.
526 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY THROUGH ND/MT AND TOWARD NV/CA. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE PLAINS. CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.