Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Showers and storms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front extending through northern Missouri. Some storms do have stronger updraft cores up to the low 30kft range as this feature passes through and area of MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40kts. While this cold front does not bring a sharp airmass change in regards to temperatures, it will in regards to dewpoints.
A weak cold front will sag through the Texas Panhandle tonight, potentially approaching KCDS early Thursday.
415 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 (Today and Tonight) Quiet weather the 24 hours as we remain under the influence of a flat subtropical ridge extending from Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states.
A weak cold front will slide into SE GA this afternoon, with a 500mb high overhead.
Greater severe/heavy rainfall threat will likely hold off until early to mid evening as more widespread storms develop along approaching cold front near the OK/KS state line.
/28/19/ Dry weather should prevail across much of the area given mid level ridging in place. Otherwise summer still is in place with highs in the lower to some mid 90s possible. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Mid-level ridging will remain firmly in place across the forecast area through the period. This will continue to promote hot conditions across the CWA, as highs this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies. A stationary, and slow eroding, boundary will also remain in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor today. With the drier air and warmer temperatures aloft, convection will once again be of an isolated nature.
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Ridging and an offshore flow pattern will keep the forecast area hot today, with high temps in the upper 90's. Slightly cooler tomorrow leading into a significant cooling trend this weekend as an upper trough moves southward.
A weak cold front spread cooler air yesterday, and afternoon temperatures will be a tad cooler with highs around 65 to 75--near seasonal for this time of the year. Enjoy the weather today, because winds will pick up again on Thursday and the remainder of the week will be considerably cooler with rain and mountain showers and breezy winds at times.
1122 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 The cut off low pressure over the northern Baja has basically stalled out. Increasing cloud cover from the southwest will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight than this morning. A wave dropping out of western Canada will pick up this low pressure and cause it to lift northeastward tomorrow. As this low lifts northward moisture will begin to advect into the region, which should result in shower and thunderstorm development during the late afternoon once things destabilize. The models are suggesting these storms could form further north in the higher terrain closer to the I-70 and points south.
South of the front instability is increasing but the higher values are currently just south of the area where scattered storms are currently developing. As the low level jet increases, bands of showers and storms are expected to develop and track south along the front. Highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Temperatures will continue to sit above climatological norms for late September, with highs reaching the high 80s to low 90s at most locations across the CWA.
1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Showers and storms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front extending through northern Missouri. Some storms do have stronger updraft cores up to the low 30kft range as this feature passes through and area of MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40kts. While this cold front does not bring a sharp airmass change in regards to temperatures, it will in regards to dewpoints.
The greater potential for thunderstorms will be later this evening and through the overnight hours as a cold front sags into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas and stalls out.
930 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A stalled low pressure system over northern Baja California will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon through Thursday with the best chances of measurable rain over the mountains and deserts.
A cold front could bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening, then high pressure will bring dry conditions through Thursday.
However returning moisture late in the day and overnight will provide fuel for potential elevated convection Thursday night as 40-50kt low level jet overspreads the region ahead of approaching cold front.
235 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Any lingering showers should exit early this evening, and quiet weather is expected to prevail over central Illinois into Thursday as high pressure drifts overhead.
Warm front has lifted well NE of the area and the dry airmass that was in place has been replaced by more summer like humidity. Temps attm range from the 70s, where it is raining, to the mid 90s across parts of North MS where the upper ridge has more influence and the sun is shining. Later tonight the main mid level trough pushing through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will send a cold front toward the Mid-South. Activity will linger into Thursday morning but then begin to diminish as the mid level trough exits and the cold front weakens over the area. Thursday afternoon should be mostly dry with temps in the lower 80s north to lower 90s south.
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will continue to dominate the weather in the lower Mississippi Valley.
A weak cold front will try to push into the forecast area around or shortly after sunrise, then stall out by late morning, lifting northward late in the day.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control the next 24 hours, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, and light to moderate southeast winds. /issued 426 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows a northwest flow occurring in the mid/upper levels over South Texas this morning; this flow is due to a weak mid- level inverted trough just to the west of Deep South Texas and a very weak mid-level low just east of CRP.
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure along the coast will move offshore tonight.
228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 (Tonight and Thursday) As noted on water vapor satellite imagery, a cut-off upper low continues to spin over northern Baja California, while a ridge over the southern U. The low will finally start to get picked up by a broad-scale trough moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight, resulting in the low moving northeast into Arizona tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile, the ridge will remain in place over our region at a similar strength, so look for dry weather to continue, with just a small chance for a stray shower or two tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s and highs tomorrow look to be in the mid 90s.
This activity is in response to a weak front approaching the area from the W, associated with a departing upper low over the Great Lakes. Current temperatures are in the lower/middle 90s for much of the area at this hour, with the 'cooler' temps noted across much of NE AL (only topping out in the upper 80s/lower 90s at the moment. Temperatures Thursday will top out in the lower 90s, which will make for the 'coolest' day of the forecast period/week ahead.
High pressure will build into the Central Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley region tonight for mostly clear and cool conditions. Core of the High pressure continues to drift across IA/IL through Thursday, providing mostly sunny skies for our area. Low pressure moves into ND/southwestern Ontario Canada Thursday night with a cold front trailing through MN into western IA.
Winds have remained breezy from the northwest associated with a surface cold front to the southeast. For Thursday, expect to see increasing cloud cover ahead of a low pressure system approaching from southern Saskatchewan/Alberta. Winds will become more southerly due to the associated warm front, which will help to keep highs in the 60s for most locations. The warm front will provide enough forcing for widespread shower activity, especially north of I-94. The center of low pressure will follow close to the international border into the night. Winds will become more westerly behind the passage of the cold front, but widespread cloud cover and winds will keep low temperatures more mild in the 40s to lower 50s.
307 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A weak upper level trough will continue to drift over the area tonight before dissipating Thursday. An upper level ridge will then build in from the west.
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Water vapor imagery, along with analysis, shows that a mid and upper level ridge has shifted southeast and is now centered over our area. Upstream of this feature is an upper level low that has dug in across the west coast of California and Baja California. Meanwhile, a trough that was downstream of the upper level ridge has dampened as it is lifting northeast away from the Bahamas.
An upper trough and northwest winds at the sfc under high pressure will mean dry and cool conditions today. Temps will only top out in the 60s and then will fall into the lower 40s tonight under clear skies. The period begins with a cold front sweeping through the region Thursday night with showers possible.
120 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
Warm evening temps drop into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, and some cooler spots may drop into the mid 60s.
211 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
The cloud features will be diminishing with time as we work through the early evening hours as high pressure slides south of our area. A mainly clear sky is expected overnight as winds begin to turn southerly as the high slides farther south and east of our area. Warmer air will shift back into our area with afternoon readings back closer to normal if not slightly above. By the latter half of the day, an area of low pressure will be moving across southern Canada/ND border region. The associated cold front is progged to begin to push through the CWA by the end of this forecast period.
08z surface analysis had secondary cold front moving through CWA. Thursday night, a cold front moves through with gusty northwest winds behind it.
The associated cloud cover over much of the southern half of the forecast area is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than the potential for this afternoon. On Thursday, northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal and southwesterly downslope winds will push high temperatures well into the 70s, with a few locations reaching the lower 80s. A cold front will cross the region from late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, followed by a period of gusty northwest winds.
Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible at the eastern edge of the forecast area from near Ponca City down toward Stillwater and Chandler and this will also be the area of the highest chances of rain.
Behind the front, high pressure will quickly slide by to the north and the overall upper air pattern begins to transition to more drastically amplified pattern with the upper ridge building into the southeast CONUS and an upper low digging into the northwest CONUS by the weekend. The upper ridge that builds in this weekend is quite anomalously strong.
Dry high pressure will move east as a front approaches from the northwest.
1148 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A south moving front will lead to cooler, near-normal, temperatures and partly cloudy skies across the High Plains and adjacent mountains today. Winds ease overnight as temperatures fall into the low 40s across the region and skies clear.
402 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 TONIGHT-THURSDAY: Fair weather cumulus stretch across the South Florida skies this afternoon with the continued influence of high pressure. Strong subsidence from deep layer ridging anchored over the peninsula will keep the chance of showers at bay for at least another day.
156 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Weak cold front crosses late tonight/Thursday. High pressure Thursday night.
/issued 937 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ A pleasant morning across South Florida with morning lows in the low 70s and some areas dropping below 70 into the 60s. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern for South Florida. High pressure at the surface and at 500mb, with PWATS hovering around 1 inch, plus or minus a little, no CAPE in the sounding, and a strong inversion just below 800mb will keep the weather quiet through the reminder of the week.
High pressure keeps pleasant conditions in the forecast on Thursday with sunshine and highs near 70. High pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley overnight into Thursday providing for a pleasant fall day with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. In response to upper ridging building into the Ohio Valley during the weekend. temps will rise above normal once again on Mon/Tue with the upper ridge impacting the area. As the upper ridge is suppressed by midweek.
/issued 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Quiet weather the 24 hours as we remain under the influence of a flat subtropical ridge extending from Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states.
Dry weather should prevail across much of the area given mid level ridging in place. Otherwise summer still is in place with highs in the lower to some mid 90s possible. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Mid-level ridging will remain firmly in place across the forecast area through the period. This will continue to promote hot conditions across the CWA, as highs this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies. A stationary, and slow eroding, boundary will also remain in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor today. With the drier air and warmer temperatures aloft, convection will once again be of an isolated nature.
Through the day Thursday, the low becomes less organized as the jet streak stretches/shears it, and ejects it to the northeast across northern Arizona.
This wave is moving through an area of zonal flow as an upper level trough will be passing to our north and high pressure remains just to our south. Clouds will continue to build in overnight from west to east and overnight lows will be mild with lows in the low to mid 60s. Will keep a chance of thunder in the forecast for tomorrow as soundings show roughly 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and lapse rates in the lowest levels around 7 to 8 deg C/km. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s for our northern areas to upper 80s across the southern TN Valley. Models in decent agreement with the overall pattern, and show relatively flat flow aloft to start, but the ridge will build back with a vengeance by the latter part of the period.
In fact, have gone with a cooler solution with widespread 70s for highs. Despite this, there is even cooler guidance that has some locations struggling to break out of the 60s. Highs will slowly moderate through the end of the business week as lee troughing and WAA resumes.
212 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Weak cold front crosses late tonight/Thursday. High pressure Thursday night.
MAJOR WINTER-LIKE PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
However, several of the models suggest a complex of showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front over Oklahoma and Arkansas tonight. As a long wave trough digs into the Great Lakes, the flow aloft will become more northwesterly helping to steer this convective complex towards the area, likely moving into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas just before sunrise Thursday morning.
The lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to be relatively dry as the front builds into the area.
724 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
529 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Weak cold front crosses late tonight/Thursday. High pressure Thursday night.
/DC/ Mostly dry conditions have prevailed today as the upper ridge continues its firm grip across the region. Any storm or shower activity that develops through the remainder of the afternoon should remain in the Highway 82 corridor, close to where a lingering frontal boundary sits. Not much change to the weather pattern expected tomorrow with the upper ridge in place. /28/ Anomalously warm low/mid-level temperatures in association with continued ridging across the southeastern CONUS will foster above normal warmth and dry conditions through the forecast period. The ArkLaMiss region will be beneath broad ridging centered across the Gulf Coast States. Heading into the weekend, global guidance continues to remain in strong agreement that the pattern will become increasingly amplified as strong Pacific jet energy diving into the Pacific Northwest helps carve out a synoptic scale longwave trough over the western CONUS.
Temperatures Thursday will top out in the lower 90s, which will make for the 'coolest' day of the forecast period/week ahead.
649 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours, but conditions will trend towards MVFR as showers and thunderstorms enter the state from the northwest overnight tonight and early Thursday morning due to a cold front moving into the region.
929 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Thanks to a high pressure stretching over east central FL, weather conditions will remain dry and skies mostly clear tonight.
A cold front should traverse the area later this evening into the early morning hours, allowing for winds to shift and low stratus to linger. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible at the eastern edge of the forecast area from near Ponca City down toward Stillwater and Chandler and this will also be the area of the highest chances of rain.
We are currently experiencing a lull in precipitation as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. By Thursday afternoon, the cold front and any lingering precipitation should clear the PAH CWA. Dry high pressure will shuffle in from the northwest, and it should be a pretty pleasant day all things considered.
Still seeing a fairly drastic warm front draped across the region this evening, with low to mid 50s dew points in East KY and TN and low 70s dew points over our south, back into West TN. Models continue to push a cold front through the region tomorrow morning and this cold front should be the instigator for additional showers and a few thunderstorms through the day tomorrow.
Things will become much more active tomorrow as a trough begins to dig south into the high plains.
/Issued 307 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ A weak upper level trough will continue to drift over the area tonight before dissipating Thursday. An upper level ridge will then build in from the west.
Temperatures are in the low to upper 70s with warmer temperatures observed to the east. At the surface, a low pressure is centered near the junction of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. A cold front moved through this morning from northeast to southwest and has stalled in southeastern Colorado. Moisture should pool along the cold front in Colorado and there may be some fog forming along the front. Behind the front in the cooler air, there will be widespread stratus development after midnight. These clouds may linger throughout tomorrow, impacting the high temperature forecast. Temperatures may end up being cooler than currently forecast depending on how long the cloud cover hangs around. The other issue for tomorrow is that low pressure will deepen over Colorado.
802 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 The latest RUC model shows deep layer ridging centered in the east half of the Gulf of Mexico for tonight with a northeasterly to easterly 1000-700 MB flow. Temperatures currently in the mid to lower 80s are on track to drop into the lower 70s to upper 60s. Relaxed high pressure will keep winds light to gentle and allow afternoon sea breezes for the next couple of days. This high pressure gets reinforced over the weekend and along with tropical cyclone Karen east of the Bahamas will result in increasing winds and seas.
additional thunderstorms were developing along/ahead of a cold front across Southeast Kansas approaching Northeast Oklahoma. while the main severe potential overnight will be associated with the convection along/ahead of the approaching cold front. ongoing thunderstorms along the outflow boundary are expected to join up with the storms along the cold front across Northeast Oklahoma and push southeastward through the CWA.
1031 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Mean-layer ridging is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, lending to a remarkably dry and stable profile on the 00Z KKEY RAOB.
639 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Any lingering showers should exit early this evening, and quiet weather is expected to prevail over central Illinois into Thursday as high pressure drifts overhead.
A cold front will move through from the north and bring breezy conditions Thursday afternoon and evening.
Cloud cover should keep temperatures a bit warmer than last night. Warm front has lifted well NE of the area and the dry airmass that was in place has been replaced by more summer like humidity. Temps attm range from the 70s, where it is raining, to the mid 90s across parts of North MS where the upper ridge has more influence and the sun is shining. Later tonight the main mid level trough pushing through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will send a cold front toward the Mid-South. Activity will linger into Thursday morning but then begin to diminish as the mid level trough exits and the cold front weakens over the area. Thursday afternoon should be mostly dry with temps in the lower 80s north to lower 90s south.
1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
Cooler air on breezy west/northwest winds moving across the area this afternoon. Outside chance of thunder as well, with cool temperatures aloft as trough departs. Expecting morning lows mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range, a bit warmer in the larger city cores.
544 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
Under the influence of deep layer ridging, clear and dry evening expected for South Florida. /issued 402 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ TONIGHT-THURSDAY: Fair weather cumulus stretch across the South Florida skies this afternoon with the continued influence of high pressure. Strong subsidence from deep layer ridging anchored over the peninsula will keep the chance of showers at bay for at least another day.
/issued 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ (Tonight and Thursday) As noted on water vapor satellite imagery, a cut-off upper low continues to spin over northern Baja California, while a ridge over the southern U. The low will finally start to get picked up by a broad-scale trough moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight, resulting in the low moving northeast into Arizona tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile, the ridge will remain in place over our region at a similar strength, so look for dry weather to continue, with just a small chance for a stray shower or two tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s and highs tomorrow look to be in the mid 90s.
Ridging and an offshore flow pattern will keep the forecast area hot today, with high temps in the upper 90's. Slightly cooler tomorrow leading into a significant cooling trend this weekend as an upper trough moves southward.
The strongest winds are expected for wind favored areas including the north and western portion the Sacramento Valley, exposed ridges, and northeast oriented canyons. Cooler temperatures are on tap as a low, originating from western Canada, moves into our area. However, we are still expecting precipitation with this low pressure system.
This watch was recently extended through the daytime hours Thursday as low pressure meanders across the state.
Due to the persistent cloud cover across northern Nebraska I have lowered the afternoon high temperatures a few degrees into the lower 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s across north central Nebraska to the lower 80s across portions of southwest Nebraska.