Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer air (in a relative sense) wrapping back westward early this morning has kept wind chill readings well above advisory criteria closer to the Mississippi River, and just don't see us hitting criteria through the morning. Brisk northwest winds on the backside of the low across southeast MN/northeast IA producing bitter cold wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range. Otherwise, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning with a few flurries, then some clearing this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the Plains. High pressure ridge slides over the area tonight for partly cloudy skies and fairly light winds.
1206 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will remain in control of the region today.
Since this system is more of a post-frontal overrunning rather than an eastward-moving low pressure system to our south, it's going to be difficult to see much precipitation, especially considering the strong push of cold/dry air behind the front. That said, with sfc temps eventually going well below freezing, it won't take much precip to cause impacts on roads. Wind chill warning criteria may be met in a few spots in the higher elevations but have kept this area as a separate segment in the advisory for now.
1235 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 High pressure will linger over the region through Tuesday.
Brisk northwest winds on the backside of the low across southeast MN/northeast IA producing bitter cold wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range. Otherwise, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning with a few flurries, then some clearing this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the Plains. High pressure ridge slides over the area tonight for partly cloudy skies and fairly light winds.
A negative tilted upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska is nudging closer to the Pacific Northwest with a cold front moving onshore. Low clouds and fog will persist most of the night from central Oregon into the Lower Columbia Basin but expect this to breakup early Tuesday due to the rain and some increasing westerly winds behind the front.
The 00Z models show little change in handling a weakening short wave trough that will move through the region in the next 24 hours. VFR, except for patchy LIFR valley fog in the KMYL and Long Valley areas and the lower Treasure Valley west of KBOI. Upper level trough passage Tuesday will bring widespread MVFR/IFR conditions to Southeast Oregon and the West Central and Boise Mountains.
High pressure over the Great Basin will continue to weaken tonight into Tuesday.
1034 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Arctic high pressure will build into Plains tonight. As a result, wind speeds on the back side of this high pressure system will drop off quickly and allow for strong radiational cooling to take place across areas east of the Laramie Range.
/issued 527 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ Low cloud layer is quickly breaking up as much drier air spreads southward behind the latest cold front, now far south of our area. /issued 257 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ The expected cold front has made its way south of the FA and has brought with it much cooler and windy conditions.
415 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures are averaging in the lower to mid 60 along the island chain. Surface wise, a strong, 1049 mb arctic region of high pressure is located over North Dakota with a lengthy ridge extending into the southern Great Plains. Closer to home, another sprawling but weakening area of high pressure is located over the eastern United States with a ridge reaching down the Florida peninsula. A deep tropospheric, east-west oriented anticyclone aligned across south Florida and well into the southern Gulf of Mexico will sag southeastward, as another mid and upper level disturbance digs southward within a long wave trough set up over the entire eastern United States and the Sunshine State.
Despite the trough moving through the area however, precipitation is not anticipated and conditions near the surface are very dry. This trough will usher in mostly cloudy skies and help maintain the modest NW winds through the day.
324 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 The center of an Arctic high pressure over the western Dakotas is producing bitter cold temperatures this morning with readings in the teens below to 25 degrees below zero. The Arctic high pressure should push south of the CWA by this afternoon with southerly winds developing. The southerly winds will continue ushering in warmer temps tonight with lows only in the single digits on either side of zero.
Axis of surface ridging already occupying the local area is shown to retreat slowly east later today ahead of 850 mb temps warming from -12C to around -7C. Aloft, the base of a broad upper trough will slowly depart SE of the region by midday. This aggressive drying should allow a quick recovery of temps into the lower 30s in most areas per latest MOS and rapid update models.
312 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area overnight and remain through Tuesday evening, bringing light snow to the region. High pressure situated off the New England coast will slow the progression of the surface therefore prolonging the period of light snow over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills.
333 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 It's a cold, blustery morning across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas in the wake of a very strong cold front that moved through the region yesterday afternoon/evening. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds this morning will result in wind chill values in the single digits and teens across most of the area, and wind chills in the single digits below zero possible across the higher terrain. However, slippery conditions are possible to the south, especially along I-10 from the split to east of Fort Stockton, so those traveling this morning will need to exercise caution, especially on bridges and overpasses.
243 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 Upper ridging will be the predominant upper level feature through the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
A strong cold front will swing through the area today, and sharp mid/upper level trough will dig into the region during the short term period.
VFR conditions expected for the net few hours but by 12z we should begin to see some low clouds build and then the cold front is expected to quickly surge through the area through the late morning hours and should be through all of the terminals before 18z. Precip should begin to slowly develop and fall over the area also from northwest to southeast and should begin as either light rain, maybe even light freezing rain but more likely as sleet at BTR and MCB and then likely quickly switching to snow at MCB between 18-20z and likely around 19-21z at BTR.
Arctic high pressure currently in the Dakotas early this morning will move to the east today. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build into Montana today bring dry and warmer weather. Shallow inversions will keep most of the valleys colder than nearby ridges today. Warm air advection tonight with upper ridge moving into Eastern Montana will limit how much fall for lows tonight. West winds will develop around midnight tonight as a warm front passes through the areas which will bring rising temperatures overnight.
A negative tilted upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska is nudging closer to the Pacific Northwest with a cold front moving onshore. Low clouds and fog will persist most of the night from central Oregon into the Lower Columbia Basin but expect this to breakup early Tuesday due to the rain and some increasing westerly winds behind the front. Stratus and fog will continue to impact most sites overnight and there will be increasing chance of precipitation mainly rain as a cold front arrives overnight and early Tuesday.
1241 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure near Detroit will move off to the east tonight while weakening to leave a trough hanging back into Lake Erie through Tuesday.
Now the main concern is the northeast winds behind this trough. The upper level trough sharpens with the trough axis exiting southeast Wisconsin this morning. The mid level trough has already exited.
1134 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure building across the region overnight will produce north winds to around 15 kts with higher gusts.
Still looks like the heaviest amounts will be focused to the south of Little Rock, particularly either side of an Arkadelphia to DeWitt line, where the highest totals could exceed four inches.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during the early overnight hours in advance of the arctic cold front with isolated to scattered light showers affecting the coastal plains. Precipitation expected to change to freezing rain at VCT by 14Z, 17Z at LRD, 18Z at ALI, and 19Z for CRP, with a mixture of freezing rain and sleet possible in the afternoon. Arctic cold front continues to plunge southward through central Texas, south of a College Station to Austin to Fredericksburg line at 04Z. Cold front will reach marine zones by 10Z and surge through coastal waters.
1042 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Clouds and light showers associated with the cold front moving along the Front Range is showing up well on visible satellite this afternoon on an otherwise mostly sunny day. A narrow ridge of high pressure will amplify overhead for Tuesday keeping conditions dry and sunny.
The expected trough this afternoon and tonight has just about completely fizzled out in the precipitation category. Since the Tue night low broke down the upper level ridge over the northern Great Basin, this low has a much easier time moving in and will contain enough moisture to generate some snow. The storm intensifies over eastern Idaho Thu night, when temperatures are cooler and thus snow amounts are boosted. Winter Weather Advisory amounts (5 to 10 inches in the mountains) are possible for the central Idaho mountains, but the mild temperatures in the highlands and Snake River plain keep snowfall much lower.
Low clouds across the east this evening will slowly move away through the night as a strong 1050mb high pressure area settles over the cwa. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower single digits above zero east to around 10 degrees west of the Missouri River.
1217 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure will bring light snow to the region today. No major changes were needed for the late eve update Great Lakes low pressure is poised to pull a cold front across the region during the near term. The advisory for the ridges for today was maintained. Near dawn Tuesday, the upper trough will pull moisture northward, focusing snow over more of our southern zones. This will lengthen the residence time of snow over the Ridges, ultimately boosting their totals from previous forecasts. The ridges could see 2-4" and despite the long duration event, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. Any remaining snow showers will continue to taper down Tuesday night in the wake of the cold front.
/issued 306 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ The cold front is currently located near the I-20 corridor and is rapidly moving south. The earlier frontal passage will mean the elevated warm layer will be more eroded by cold air advection and the threat for freezing rain may be reduced, with sleet or snow being the more likely precip type. This may not have too much of an impact though because models have been showing less precip occurring in our CWA with only a few hundredths liquid equivalent falling in the lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. The clearing may not come soon enough to affect temps much so prefer the cooler MET for Tue highs.
Temperatures responded by falling into the lower single digits. For tonight, bitterly cold readings are once again expected with overnight lows in the lower single digits. By tomorrow, the upper trough forcing Arctic air through the Ozarks will begin to progress east.
However, an upper level trough will dig southward into the southern tier of states during the weekend with its axis well to our west across TX/OK. Downstream of the trough axis, deep layer moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf into our area.
With cold high pressure settling into the region Friday night, decided to lower Min T's a bit away from SuperBlend and closer to MET/MAV guidance.
258 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A warm southerly flow takes hold today, as high pressure exits. High pressure exits this period.
By early tomorrow morning, IFR is looking likely as RH values in the lowest 1. Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad trough over the eastern half of the country with westerly flow over Texas. A second trough extended over western Mexico.
High pressure over western Canada is beginning to nose southward into the northern CONUS, leading to single digit temps above and below zero. Southern extent of cold air is beginning to spill into the SD Plains, with temps over much of western SD in the low teens to low 20s. Do expect some minor ice accumulations due to freezing drizzle/rain, especially over the central and eastern Black Hills and adjacent Foot Hills/Plains. Have added a winter weather advisory for southern Campbell and Weston zones in Wyoming beginning 03z Friday to account for brief freezing rain and subsequent transition to snow.
922 PM PST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure weakens slightly Friday through the weekend and the onshore flow should bring back more coastal clouds and fog.
Latest surface analysis places a high pressure center of 1031mb over Memphis. Temperatures will fall into the lower 30s areawide tonight under clear skies.
1127 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure will shift offshore Friday morning. Weak low pressure will approach from the west later Friday into early Saturday and allow for some light accumulating snow.
Looks like an overall dry next 18 to 24 hours across the forecast area as high pressure remains in control. This will be short-lived though as a warm front lifts north Friday afternoon. Synoptically, rain will driven by the warm front, but questions revolve around how much precipitation will reach the ground given the drier airmass in place and exactly how strong will the lift be during the afternoon and early evening.
255 AM MST Fri Feb 9 2018 Broad upper trough remains across the region with the upper jet over the northern Rockies through Wyoming into Nebraska. Arctic frontal boundary has pushed south of the CWA early this morning with high pressure building in.
A cold front will approach the state from the northwest and begin to move through after midnight tonight into Saturday morning. In these areas, freezing rain could begin in a few spots as early as Saturday morning with more widespread below freezing air in place by Saturday evening. With temperatures remaining at or below freezing through the remainder of the short term period, freezing rain or drizzle will remain a concern.
320 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 In the upper levels there is a broad trough across the center of the country with a ridge extending in from the CA Coast.
1011 PM PST Thu Feb 8 2018 Winter returns tomorrow as a cold front ushers in blustery northerly winds and colder temperatures Friday. The cold front moving down out of Canada bring in modified Arctic air into the region has pushed down the Okanogan Valley and is working its way through the Purcell Trench.
Winds will weaken after 15Z most terminals ahead of strong cold front, which will move over northern Oklahoma terminals 15-18Z and central Oklahoma terminals near end of this forecast switching winds to northerly. /issued 307 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018/ A south wind will remain somewhat breezy tonight, which will result in warmer and more uniform overnight low temperatures that last night. The temperature forecast for Friday will be rather tricky as a strong cold front is expected to move across Oklahoma and north Texas. There will also be a risk of mainly freezing drizzle or perhaps light freezing rain late Friday night into Saturday. Very small, supercooled, water droplets may survive through a rather dry sub- cloud region to pose a risk of freezing precipitation. For now will maintain low chances of mainly freezing rain.
Short wave trough rotates through Ontario Fri night but colder air will stay north of the area. Mon - Thu Longwave upper low essentially remains over northeast Canada and does retrogress a bit through the period. Longwave upper ridge from the west coast of North America to AK weakens over AK through the period.
Much colder in the lower levels and forcing not overly strong so will just stick with smaller snow chances and scattered flurries. Cold high pressure settles in on Friday night and low temperatures should drop to 5 below to 10 below zero.
This will divert the flow over the region to be a little more out of the north and thus bring some cooler air back into the forecast area.
For today, surface ridging will move east of the Appalachians with return flow of low-level boundary layer moisture beginning to move north across the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee valley. For tonight, jet dynamics will strengthen over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys which in turn will increase the low-level jet over the area.
This increase in moisture in the mid and upper levels is associated with a weak cold front. South of the front, over our CWA, broad high pressure has allowed for good subsidence and warming. Maximum temperatures are currently maxing out in the low 80s along the east coast metro region and mid 80s further inland. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate, as maximum temperatures peak in the low to mid 80s.
Much above normal temperatures will continue one more day before a cold front moves across the region on Saturday dropping temperatures to near normal. Little in the way of moisture with this cold front so only some isolated snow showers expected across far eastern Nevada.
1233 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure will linger over our region through much of today, then move offshore tonight. A warm front is expected to push northward through central NC late Saturday.
343 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Somewhat breezy south winds continue early this morning across OK ahead of the approaching cold front, which has now entered DDC's CWA. The front will accelerate again tonight, with the freezing line somewhere near and just south of the I44 corridor. Falling temps throughout Sat morning will result in light freezing drizzle. The setup appears eerily similar to last week's freezing drizzle/rain event, with boundary layer conditions drying out behind the front. The mid to upper trough will approach the panhandles early Sun morning.
Short wave trough rotates through Ontario Fri night but colder air will stay north of the area. Mon - Thu Longwave upper low essentially remains over northeast Canada and does retrogress a bit through the period. Longwave upper ridge from the west coast of North America to AK weakens over AK through the period. High pressure builds in overnight, creating light and variable winds with any cigs scattering out.
The large scale pattern with a ridge over the eastern Pacific and a large mid-continent trough will continue through the period.
With that said, the highest winds we expect with the snow are 10-15 MPH overnight along the Iowa border, with speeds of 5 knots or less to the north. After tonight's system moves through, we'll have high pressure in place to start the weekend with below normal temperatures continuing into Saturday, but certainly not bitter cold.
A cold front will likely bring a wind shift to KCDS around mid day though forecast speeds are insufficient for a separate line ATTM. /issued 343 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018/ After a nice day today, we should see one more tomorrow afternoon as a westerly wind develops ahead of the next cold front to move across the area. The west wind will help to boost highs a few degrees over today across the southern half of the forecast area, but the northern half will depend on when the first push of the cold front will arrive. This could set up a strong temperatures gradient on Saturday with highs struggling to climb above freezing in the northern Rolling Plains while the southwestern South Plains makes it to near 50 degrees before the cold air starts to filter in from the northeast.
355 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 WV imagery this morning depicting a broad trof encompassing the CONUS with an amplified ridge hanging off the west coast. At the sfc, very strong high pressure centered over SRN Alberta was building SWD into the NRN high Plains.
1242 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure will continue to move east of the region tonight. A warm front to the north of the area will bring snow to northern Indiana and Ohio, and rain will move into the area on Saturday as low pressure approaches the Ohio Valley.
122 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure will build north of the area tonight and gradually slide offshore Friday. A warm front will lift north through the region Friday night and Saturday.
1153 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018 High pressure overhead tonight shifts offshore Friday morning. 1033 MB area of High pressure is passing overhead and will slide to off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. A warm front lifts northward across the Ohio Valley-Central Appalachians Friday but clouds will be mainly confined to our north, our forecast rain/snow free. Look for highs from the mid to upper 40s along the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys, to lower to mid 50s elsewhere. A cold front is expected to move into, and then stall over the region during the weekend.
The cold continues even with a low pressure to our south and a ridge of high pressure to our north. The low will move off Friday with the ridge moving south.
336 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 A strong cold front is barreling south through the Central Plains states early Friday morning. Some light freezing drizzle is possible across southern and eastern areas by Saturday night as clouds fill in area-wide, and temperatures should fall into the teens for most locations.
421 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A warm front across Southern Ohio will lift North of the area this afternoon taking the snow with it. The front will sag south as a cold front tonight as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. Warm front across Southern Ohio near a Dayton to Parkersburg line. Frontal boundary sinks south as a cold front overnight as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley.
349 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast today. A warm front will lift north through the region tonight and Saturday.
High pressure will skirt across the area over the next 24 hours, providing mostly clear skies and light winds. Despite this, think the overall better slug of moisture will pass through the southeast portions of the CWA and that is where we have placed the higher QPE at this point.
Very little change in expectations the remainder of the night from the previous forecast as Arctic high pressure builds in tonight, forcing the low level baroclinic zone and the associated band of snow across western and south central North Dakota as of 00 UTC south through the late evening and overnight. Very cold low temperatures expected again tonight and utilized some of the lower guidance. Another wave propagating through the deep upper trough does clip the far southwest.
Coastal trough will move into the coastal waters Friday morning with areas of light drizzle/MVFR vsbys over the coastal plains with IFR ceilings expected. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the coastal plains in the afternoon as the coastal trough moves inland. Coastal trough will approach the coast during the day. Rain chances will increase in the afternoon into Friday evening as the short wave trough moves into northeast Mexico.