Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
714 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 A cold front was moving through northwest wisconsin this afternoon and will exit by early this evening. Behind the front, additional showers and storms were found over northeast Minnesota that were driven by positive vorticity advection associated with an upper level long wave trof moving overhead. Behind this trof, a clearing trend was noted on visible satellite imagery. Cool conditions will be over the region tonight as the high pressure drifts into the Red River Valley of the North. Meanwhile high pressure is overhead. The cool northwest flow aloft will keep max temps in the lower 70s, with upper 60s right next to Lake Superior.
Weak high pressure over the Ohio Valley kept skies mostly sunny today as temperatures remained below seasonal norms with dry dew points in the 50s. Showers with a few claps of thunder in southern Illinois were well ahead of a weak cold front set to enter the area by Friday evening. There's an outside chance some of these could hold together by dawn Friday north and west of Louisville, but 20 POPs are on the high end.
Later tonight high pressure pushes in and quieter weather settles in. /Friday through Thursday/ Not much change expected in the forecast through the weekend as high pressure gradually shifts East. Return flow moves back into Southern and eventually Western Iowa and as warmer and more unstable air pushes back.
Both the global and mesoscale models are a little more robust today with their qpf associated with a quick moving low pressure system tracking across the Dakotas tonight into Wednesday. On Wednesday we lose our cloud layer aloft across the north so there is a small potential of freezing rain.
The new forecast has 2 to 6 inches of snow from this evening through Wednesday morning for north central Idaho, and if the enhancement does develop many places will end of on the high side of accumulation totals.
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the end of the week with gusty winds over the lower deserts with precipitation confined to mainly the Sierra and central Nevada.
/Issued 233 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017/ 500mb analysis and WV loop shows an upper low across the ARKLAMISS. As the low pressure centers get further away early Wednesday, the rainfall chances will decrease.
Western edge of stratus deck is just along the fridge of northwest AR forecast area and continues to slowly pull eastward.
Weak high pressure behind a cold front will remain intact across south central Texas tonight. The high pressure will lead to light winds and with clear skies tonight, low temperatures will drop in to the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Winds beneath the ridge are near 5 knots resulting in a beautiful afternoon with temperatures near 70! The light winds and reduced BL mixing has allowed RH values to remain in the mid to upper 30s across the eastern half of the area, thus reducing the fire danger. The lower Td's have equated to minimum RH values in the mid to upper 20s Wednesday afternoon. There remains considerable disagreement amongst the 12Z deterministic guidance with respect to the timing of the low's passage, but there remains less variability in the track of the cyclone through Kansas. This projected track would take the center of the low through the CWA and used a blend of the GFS/EC in the timing of the low passage.
Upper low over AR and moving East. Temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 50s across the region with clouds hanging around across all areas except for possibly east Texas and Southeast Oklahoma. Not expecting much widespread clearing until Wednesday afternoon as upper-level ridge builds in the wake of the upper-low.
Winds beneath the ridge are near 5 knots resulting in a beautiful afternoon with temperatures near 70! The light winds and reduced BL mixing has allowed RH values to remain in the mid to upper 30s across the eastern half of the area, thus reducing the fire danger. There remains considerable disagreement amongst the 12Z deterministic guidance with respect to the timing of the low's passage, but there remains less variability in the track of the cyclone through Kansas. This projected track would take the center of the low through the CWA and used a blend of the GFS/EC in the timing of the low passage.
Rain showers will linger over eastern portions of Central Indiana this evening as a low pressure system traverses the Deep South.
Snowy roads will be common across the lower Idaho Panhandle. Cooler and showery weather is forecast through the weekend. Slick roads will be possible for just about every location by the Wednesday morning commute as the rain and snow melt becomes black ice with temperatures expected to fall below freezing across the region. rises look to be slowing and perhaps the cooler air is finally shutting down runoff.
Veering winds are anticipated as the high moves off towards the east. /issued 258 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring widespread subsidence across South Texas behind a strong eastward-moving 500mb low pressure system. With sunny skies and very low moisture, temperatures have soared into the low 90s in many areas with the Brownsville airport already tying the daily record high temperature as of this writing.
A well defined speed max (sampled by the 00Z mid-upper level RAOBS) appears to be associated with the second area of convection, but once again, the low level thermodynamics are lacking. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. The cloudy, rainy, and windy weather will begin after sunrise in the Lower Keys, then work eastward. In addition, we expect cloudy, rainy, and squally weather associated with a low pressure system moving eastward through the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper low currently centered over Arkansas and Louisiana is slowly spinning eastward toward Alabama this afternoon with a deep fetch of onshore moisture in the lower and upper levels helping to spread widespread light to moderate rain shower activity across Central Alabama today. As the night progresses, we should see the upper low move to the east/southeast toward the Northern Gulf Coast by morning.
859 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure will move off the east coast tonight. High pressure will be located off the southeast coast of the United States late in the week. A cold front will pass through the area this weekend. The weather this evening features a cutoff low moving across the southeastern United States and a northern stream disturbance pulling north into Canada with a trailing trough into the Northeastern US. A southerly flow around high pressure over the Atlantic along with the sunshine will cause more unusually warm conditions. Leaned toward the higher guidance or even above based on temperatures aloft and mixing potential. but much cooler (50's) along the shore of the Bay and along the ridge tops of the Potomac Highlands.
VFR will prevail through the entire 00 UTC TAF cycle as high pressure settles in across the region. By Wednesday morning, the upper low moves towards the middle Gulf coast and we'll see weak ridging build into the area.
With stabilizing conditions, light winds, and lack of dry air intrusion at the low levels, widespread fog appears to be given tonight.
/issued 318 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ A slow moving upper level low pressure system over the Arklamiss this afternoon will continue to move east tonight. The upper low should drop southeast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning with upper ridging rebuilding over the Mid South through the day. This should allow temperatures to warm back into the lower to middle 70s.
820 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 Mid/upper-level ridging continues to be displaced by a well-defined upper low making its way across LA/MS this evening. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure is moving along the central northern Gulf coast region, with a trailing cold front extending out into the Gulf. So far, rain has not yet reached our outer coastal waters, but expect that to change within the next several hours as the low shifts into the Gulf and toward the state. An area of low pressure will move through the waters on Wednesday, with rain and occasional thunderstorms, along with elevated winds and seas, expected throughout much of the day.
The line is associated with the upper level low centered over southeastern Arkansas and moving into central Mississippi. Drier air moving in behind the low aloft has led to some clearing over the forecast area, although the lingering low-level moisture has led to cu formation with heating this afternoon. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
923 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Upper low pressure system continues to slowly migrate to our east and was located across West Central Miss late this evening. Upper low over AR and moving East.
There will be some variable clearing across the aforementioned area as the lower clouds and cirrus erode slowly from the northwest into the WFO PAH forecast area.
Temperatures will once again cool to near freezing in area valleys tonight, creating slick patches on area roadways. The lower elevations of the I-90 corridor west of Missoula will likely be impacted the most from a mix of snow-cover, black ice, and deep slush at times. Beneath a trough of cold air of air aloft, snow showers will develop periodically throughout this time. Occasional snow showers will continue for KGPI this afternoon and evening, with little to no accumulation is expected until after 22/0400z, as ground and near surface temperatures remain above freezing.
/issued 352 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) As upper ridging builds over the area from the southwest, northwesterly flow aloft over the area will back to the west tonight and will be out of the southwest by tomorrow. Looking for sunny skies tomorrow with afternoon highs around 20 to 25 degrees warmer than average, 85 degrees at Abilene (normal 62 degrees), and 89 degrees at San Angelo (normal 65 degrees. ) Morning lows tomorrow across the area will also be warmer than average with lows mostly in the mid 40s under clear skies (normals for the area are in the upper 30s.
/Issued 207 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ Upper low centered over Arkansas continues to make slow eastward progress, eventually taking the cloud cover along and east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas line with it. Even warmer temperatures are on tap tomorrow as winds shift to the south and southwest.
Hourly temperature observations have been running a little cooler than forecast grids, so have nudged overnight lows downward in order to compensate.
Skies will be mostly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 60s, except upper 60s along the Martin county coast. A well developed upr low currently over the lower MS valley is forecast with good consistency among models to move over the NE Gulf of Mex early Wednesday morning.
630 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017 A tricky forecast coming up thanks to the ongoing warm temperatures, an approaching boundary, and then stronger cold front. As far as the big picture is concerned, an upper level trough currently situated along the west cost will slowly dig south and deepen some tonight and into tomorrow. Ahead of this trough, a weak boundary has set up and is also dropping south. For the remainder of today and tonight, variable cloudiness is expected with a few snow showers possible for the highest elevations of the eastern Uintah and northern mountains as the boundary just makes the Colorado/Wyoming border after midnight.
The combination of the cloud cover and precipitation will keep low temperatures quite mild overnight -- generally in the low to mid 50s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 70 55 74 / 70 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 67 52 73 / 70 60 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 54 66 52 73 / 70 60 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 62 48 72 / 70 80 30 20.
Attention then turns to cold frontal boundary pushing into the area tonight and the potential for snow when combining this with the approaching western trough.
Snow showers will persist over the higher mtns as moisture rides up the west-facing slopes. One more mild day across the CWA Weds ahead of an upper trough that will be over the western CONUS. Meanwhile a lee cyclone will begin developing over eastern Colorado by late in the day. More significant changes should ensue Weds night as the lee cyclone continues to deepen over eastern Colorado and colder air sinks south across the CWA. Given trends in models have advanced the Winter Storm Watch over the higher mtns to early Weds morning then started a WS Watch over most of the rest of the CWA Weds night.
The upper level low pressure system currently spinning over the Mid South and Mississippi River Valley Region will continue to slowly move away from the Missouri Ozarks tonight. Fog will be most likely along and east of the Highway 65 corridor and along and south of the I-44 corridor.
The closed low was noted on satellite imagery spinning overhead here in central Mississippi. The closed low is progged to track southeast tonight and be just off the Mississippi Gulf coast by sunrise. The best chance for any measurable rain tonight will continue east of the low. /22/ Tonight through Wednesday: Overall the upper low will gradually slide southeast into the Gulf of Mexico as we go into the evening. Expect a gradual dropoff in precipitation as the isentropic lift continues to wane as the closed low dives into the Gulf of Mexico.
Another upper- level trough was digging in upstream off the Pacific coast.
The latest model trends are keeping the mid/upper trough north of the area with large-scale forcing for subsidence across much of KS and pops were trended down with this forecast Thu night into early Fri.
High pressure across the area will maintain VFR conditions tonight through Wed. Quiet weather is in store through the period as an upper level ridge moves across the region on Wednesday. Went closer to the lower MAV guidance for minimum temperatures tonight with respect to radiational cooling.
The last significant wave with the trough will move through this evening bringing heavy snow to the Sierra and also portions of Western Nevada. In addition, the area favored for the heaviest bands is along the I-80 and Highway 50 corridors as the low level front remains stalled there through the evening. After this wave moves through tonight, the main trough axis passes through Wednesday with snow showers becoming more isolated.
18Z surface data has a cold front running from eastern lower Michigan into northwest Arkansas. High pressure ran from the western Great Lakes into the southern Plains.
Surface pressure gradients are tightening up across eastern Montana this afternoon as low pressure has developed north of Billings. High pressure over Alberta continues to nose south. Conditions will return to a winter feel for many tonight as the low moves east through the Dakotas and more cold air spills in from Canada. Sub-freezing temperatures at around 850 mb should support precipitation changing over to snow first over the northern zones.
/issued 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ An upper ridge across the forecast area will move east and be replaced by westerly flow aloft by early Wednesday.
A couple short wave troughs moving over the region along with a surface cold front dropping south on Wednesday will bring an increase in clouds along with some chances of light rain/sprinkles later tonight and Wednesday. It will be a mild night across the region with lows in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Within the zonal flow a short wave ridge was present over the Tri-State Area. Lows will be warmer than last night due to the higher dew points and westerly winds. Wednesday a cold front will move into the Tri-State Area during the day then stall near the I-70 corridor. The ECMWF nudged the front further north from its last run, but still had cooler temperatures than most other models.
831 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Pesky light to moderate showers continue to stream across parts of central and south central Louisiana this evening as they wrap around the back side of a slowly departing upper level low. Fog appears less likely overnight with the proximity of the upper low and ongoing showers. Isolated/scattered shower activity moving SE thru Central LA at this time within flow around upper low centered over AR. The line is associated with the upper level low centered over southeastern Arkansas and moving into central Mississippi. Drier air moving in behind the low aloft has led to some clearing over the forecast area, although the lingering low-level moisture has led to cu formation with heating this afternoon. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
The low clouds and light rain will linger through the night and into the morning hours on Wednesday.
Isolated/scattered shower activity moving SE thru Central LA at this time within flow around upper low centered over AR. The line is associated with the upper level low centered over southeastern Arkansas and moving into central Mississippi. Drier air moving in behind the low aloft has led to some clearing over the forecast area, although the lingering low-level moisture has led to cu formation with heating this afternoon. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
605 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 The upper level low pressure system currently spinning over the Mid South and Mississippi River Valley Region will continue to slowly move away from the Missouri Ozarks tonight. Fog will be most likely along and east of the Highway 65 corridor and along and south of the I-44 corridor.
A cold front tonight will bring a period of cold unsettled weather lasting through the end of the week.
Expecting all locations to remain above freezing, ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE.
Upper low working its way along the Gulf Coast continues to feed moisture north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Otherwise unseasonable warmth continues Wednesday into Wednesday night under weak ridging aloft and a sloppy SW low-level gradient.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be warm again, but the clouds will keep them a few degrees cooler than today was.
531 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Dry air continues to push in from the northwest this afternoon as upper-level low pressure over eastern LA/AR gradually drifts to the southeast, leaving the majority of the CWA very quiet this afternoon. Plentiful heating but no real mixing/advection has resulted in very mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, setting a reference point for tomorrow's warmer conditions. Record-setting warmth is expected across the region tomorrow as the thermal axis translates eastward and surface convergence along and ahead of a weak cold front enhances mixing of the warming temperatures aloft.
347 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017 A tricky forecast coming up thanks to the ongoing warm temperatures, an approaching boundary, and then stronger cold front. As far as the big picture is concerned, an upper level trough currently situated along the west cost will slowly dig south and deepen some tonight and into tomorrow. Ahead of this trough, a weak boundary has set up and is also dropping south. For the remainder of today and tonight, variable cloudiness is expected with a few snow showers possible for the highest elevations of the eastern Uintah and northern mountains as the boundary just makes the Colorado/Wyoming border after midnight.
Supported by dry nwly flow aloft, bringing with it sct patches of ci at times, highs today will actually be a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values, mid 80s north to upper 80s south, low to mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. This broadening in surface ridging influences will allow some component of s/swly surface flow to become established across our area, and this, along with these surface ridging influences shifting ewd, will allow temperatures, after cool lows tonight in the lower 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region, to rebound to near seasonal normal values by Thursday afternoon, i.
Expect a warmer day with 925H temps warming to 17-18C, which will result in afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 70s to around 80 away from Lake Michigan. Models are not showing much flow in the low levels, though not too bad at mid/high levels.
Upper high centered around the 4-corners area with NW flow across the CWA. Should see a decrease in convection during the evening but some may hang around through tonight helped by another weak impulse moving down the front side of the upper high.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over the upper Mississippi Valley with a very diffuse stationary front across northern AR and through central OK. This feature will allow a cold front to push south across the northern/central Plains and will be situated through central/southern KS by Thu afternoon and will provide the focus for showers and storms.
408 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016 Monsoon moisture continued to seep into the area beneath the upper level high centered over the Four Corners region early this morning. Daytime warming combined with increased moisture will result in both more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity and cooler afternoon highs. Deep moisture, diurnal warming and lift associated with this feature points to another active day with numerous thunderstorms over the higher terrain and increased coverage in the lower elevations.
An upper level ridge will maintain hot and dry weather across northern California today. A trough will settle over the Pacific Northwest late this week causing inland temperatures to fall to near normal values. High pressure will bring another hot day to northern California with conditions similar to yesterday. Interior temperatures will gradually drop over the next several days as 500mb heights fall as an upper trough settles over the Pacific Northwest.
A trough develops over Lake Winnipeg 00z Thu. Mainly focused on an upper trough that will bring showers and thunderstorms late Wed night into Thu night, and also took a close look at the July 4th weekend. Looks like a good shot at showers and thunderstorms associated with that upper trough late Wed night into Thu night, but no severe weather is expected. A cold front crossing later Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri into Sun as high pressure moves across.
High pressure is expected across the area through Thursday.
Mrng lows on Thursday will be in the lower 60s, not bad for the end of June.
A weak short wave aloft will support the storms to slowly build southward along the KS-MO border after 15Z, weakening shortly after sunset with some lingering storms along the SW CWA until the low level convergence dissipates overnight.
117 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A cold front will move through the region overnight and bring a most welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. Lows tonight will be right around normal for this time of year with readings in the mid/upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge and mid/upper 60s to the east. However, the cold front that moves through tonight will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to the north by late Wednesday. High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
The southwest to west flow will continue through Thursday as the mid/upper level trough persists over the eastern U. Daytime high temperatures today and Thursday will be near normal and run from the upper 80s close to the coast to the lower and mid 90s inland. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the coast.
Dry and seasonal weather is expected on Thursday as high pressure resides over the area.
This will cause rather strong winds into the small- scale low pressure area for a few hours after midnight.