Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Early morning Southeast Texas temperatures are cool in the wake of yesterday's cold front with upper 30s to lower 40s north, upper 40s to lower 50s central and lower 60s near the coast. With a persistent southwest aloft for the next several days, expect to see periods of showers and thunderstorms with the higher rain chances up north and the lower rain chances closer to the coast.
Areas of freezing drizzle will occur overnight into Thursday morning. Another round of freezing rain/rain will move across the area Thursday. Freezing rain and sleet will be possible parts of the area this evening but areas of FZDZ is expected to be the primary precip overnight into the morning. Another round of freezing rain/rain is expected Thursday.
1240 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday and crest over the area Thursday night.
332 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Today: As expected most of the good lift ends around 1200 UTC, with mainly freezing drizzle during the morning. Appears area roughly along/west of the turnpike will remain cold enough for freezing rain/freezing drizzle well into the afternoon.
326 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Temperatures across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas early this morning remained at or just the below the freezing mark with the exception of south central MO along the MO/AR border. Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain continued. The freezing drizzle/rain is expected to continue through sunrise today before temperatures slowly warm above freezing and the light precipitation tapers off.
Deeper moisture from will be pushing northward as winds become southerly ahead of a trough of low pressure moving into Wisconsin. Precipitation will tend towards snow initially, then become a mix with freezing rain and some sleet possibly, especially north and west areas, this evening as an inversion causes low levels to warm.
1207 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Weak high pressure remains over the forecast area with a light southerly flow. Relative high amplitude upper air pattern with trough on the southwest US and upper level ridge in the eastern US.
/issued 816 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018/ A strong U/L ridge remains anchored over the western Atlantic and Florida peninsula.
244 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 Drier air is moving into the region this morning ahead of a coastal trough, with precipitable water values dropping to around 0. Mid/upper level high pressure off the Carolina coastline will weaken slightly today while building a little closer to the region. Dry with near record high temperatures will continue, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the interior, and mid to upper 70s along the coast. Low level moisture is forecast to increase from the southeast tonight as another coastal trough develops and moves inland.
Area radars/observations confirm the presence of some freezing drizzle from portions of central OK into northeast OK, with the activity lifting to the northeast. Suspect that the shallow cold air will hang around for several more hours, enough to warrant extending the winter weather advisory through the morning hours with temps eventually rising above freezing toward noon.
1025 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018 Not as cold tonight as the cold arctic high over the plains moves east and return flow allows for warmer air to spread over the area. This should bring some snow showers to the higher mtns overnight but only light accumulations expected. Flurries and snow showers should spread into mainly the southeast part of the Panhandle Thursday as the impulse ejects into the high plains. Cold again Thursday night as another push of colder air settles down the high plains but not as cold as the last surge.
Traffic slowdowns are becoming more frequent (particularly on area overpasses) per Google traffic data, so with no definitive break foreseen with freezing drizzle until later this morning, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire forecast area until noon. By later this morning, much deeper and drier SW flow will overspread the region in association with an upper trough lifting across the Colorado Plateau.
411 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 High pressure will build toward the region today and crest over Maine late tonight.
A dry and windy day will develop Thursday, as another cold front approaches.
1226 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 A slow moving cold front will stall to the south overnight into Thursday.
An E/SE flow will continue today around strong high pressure centered near Bermuda. Min temps will remain above average ranging from the mid 60s interior/Volusia to the lower 70s along the immediate coast south of the Cape. Strong mid/upper level ridge remains entrenched across Florida from late week through the weekend, keeping well above normal temperatures in place. Highs will continue to range from the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s over the interior, with overnight lows in the 60s for most areas.
359 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 An upper level ridge is currently centered north of the Bahamas and extends into the Bay of Campeche.
Cold front which has pulled up stationary late this evening was oriented from just north of BPT to just north of ESF attm.
105 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 Cooler and wet weather has moved into the region as a cold front has stalled southeast of the area. Low pressure tracking just south of the region tonight into Thursday will result in more widespread precipitation. There are a few observations of freezing temperatures in west central Ohio, but recent trends suggest that it may not get as cold as originally forecast.
The cold front has now pushed through GLS and sits just off the coast. /ISSUED 855 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ A cold front was very close to the coast and should continue to trek into the coastal waters. A weak 850 low was over east Texas with a weak trough axis extending to the S-SW of the 850 low. Showers not quite as numerous as earlier in the evening but lift from the 850 trough and the copious moisture should keep showers/iso thunderstorms going through the night.
Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front well north and west of our area, stretching from Louisiana northeastward through Tennessee and Virginia under the eastern flank of a large upper level trough. Light southeasterly flow prevails across our area, with dry conditions persisting under the western portion of deep layer ridging.
Another area of light freezing rain and sleet is expected to develop and I went more with the NAM solution that had the area of precipitation a little further west. Warmer temperatures will start off the weekend as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies and move out into Central Plains over the weekend.
352 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Currently band of moderate to heavy rainfall was to the south of I-40 and along and north of a stalled cold front from near Greenwood to Fulton Mississippi.
However, those same models that then tried to erase moisture from the area are ignoring the sleet and freezing rain happening just to our south in Lubbock's area. Sounding profiles for the area would suggest that freezing drizzle to sleet or even hints of very light snow could be possible for tonight for everyone. Thinking that the rest of the area will be in for a thick overcast deck, but wouldn't be shocked to see some places see light freezing drizzle since models just can't latch on very well. The upper level longwave trough that is currently over southern California/Nevada will see a low pressure center descend from Canada and combine with this trough as it pushes east towards the region.
Given that temps appear to be a degree or so cooler than short blended guidance, we may see a brief period of freezing temps and light freezing rain over far northeast AR before precip exits during the overnight. /issued 327 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ Skies remain cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from around 40 degrees to the lower 60s. The cold front has cleared all but the extreme southeast corner of the forecast area. The cold front should stall out tonight so rain should continue across the forecast area.
An approaching trough is on our doorstep with snow already falling in McCall. The main energy and moisture associated with this trough though is expected to pull west and then south.
Then High pressure builds over the region, with dry weather for much of the coming week.
254 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A large area of high pressure centered off the New Jersey coast will bring spectacular Autumn conditions today through much of Monday, to enjoy the near peak color of the fall foliage. A high-amplitude and deepening, cold upper trough will become located across the eastern U.
409 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong 1030 mb cell of high pressure over the mid Atlantic waters. The MFL morning sounding showed, once again, sufficient moisture in the lower levels and upper, but lacking in the mid levels. Early to mid this week: On Monday, flow will continue to veer slightly to the southeast, out ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures on Monday. with highs generally in the lower 80s. Another cold front will move across the Big Country by the late afternoon reinforcing the very dry airmass in place.
319 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A cold front on Monday will bring rain and an end to above normal temperatures. A cold front currently across the Midwest will shift to the east slowly overnight and showers will remain west of the forecast area through sunrise. While low pressure shifts north over Lake Huron Monday night, its cold front should race to the east.
130 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather this afternoon. Rain can be expected with a Monday cold front and eventually a change in our weather pattern. This slow down is in response to the development of a cutoff 500mb low over the lower Mississippi valley Sunday night. This upper low is slowing height falls over the region, and is holding back the eastward progression of large scale ascent. Additionally, the deep moisture stream will be slowed, as it squeezes northward between the upper low and the exiting ridge. Have slowed the higher PoPs a few hours on Monday and am thinking that the main rain shield will not make it across the entire area until late in the afternoon or evening.
129 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and warm the rest of today as high pressure pulls away from the region.
There was a brief period of 30 mph wind gusts on the backside of the low in a relatively narrow isallobaric max/pressure rise immediately west of the low-level trough. This Evening and Tonight 850mb trough axis and attendant frontogenesis will provide enough convergence and lift to result in periods of light rain lingering over the far east into tonight. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds allow overnight lows to reach the lower 40s on avg. Monday Will likely have scattered light rain showers developing during the late morning through the afternoon as 700mb trough axis and associated convergence and mid-level DCVA provide moderate forcing for ascent. To begin the period, the upper low over the Great Lakes will see energy join in the trof, resulting in a near fujiwhara rotation of energy centers.
549 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the area Monday night bringing rain, gusty winds, and cooler conditions for much of the rest of the week. ridge finally breaks down, a complex system over the midwest will push a strong cold front toward the area. The system represents the opening event in an developing pattern change that will eventually result in a large trough over the eastern part of the country. It will be a messy transition as the ridge is slow to give up, and multiple waves rotate around the trough as it settles in.
350 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 An upper level wave and surface cold front will be moving across the CWA overnight. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday as well, with highs back down into the 50s for most areas. Deep northwest to northerly flow dominates the period as upper level high pressure remains over the western U. with large low pressure troughing over the eastern U.
The elongated long wave trough and associated PV anomaly axis continues to slowly move through Iowa this afternoon and has resulted in persistent mid/high level cloudiness from Ottumwa to Waterloo.
1254 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A cold front will move through the region this morning and bring drying from the northwest. It will be a rather windy day with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible across portions of the open wheat country of Washington and the Idaho Palouse and on some ridges.
343 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A shift to north winds will develop overnight as the next weak cold front moves through the High Plains, driven by a sharp upper trough moving through the Missouri Valley. Even the colder NAMmos guidance indicates above freezing temperatures in the Ark valley west of DDC to the CO line while most model output only drops lows into the mid 40s. Given the dry conditions, the raw models might be slightly too cool for highs on Monday afternoon, which the MOS consensus is warmer than by a few degrees especially west.
Cold front has pushed through the CWA with clearing skies and cooler temps in its wake.
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Clouds and light rain/drizzle are hanging on over the eastern cwfa underneath an upper low that is closing off over the region. Looks dry Monday despite the passage of the trough. Western CONUS/east Pacific upper level ridging with a downstream trough will keep the region in nw flow aloft.
A cold front will approach and will be pushing through late in the period.
As a result, should see mountain wave increase and could see some gusts upwards of 70 mph on the higher mountain peaks and wind prone areas of the foothills. Those winds may stay occasionally gusty in proximity of mountain wave, and then a cold front arriving late tonight near the northern border. Temperatures will be a good 10 degrees cooler, leaning toward the cooler side of guidance this time of year with upslope component in place.
With the upper level trough exiting to the west today, northerly winds will gradually shift to the west through the afternoon, decreasing slightly, before becoming more southwesterly through the overnight hours. Most of the cloud cover associated with the cold front and convection has moved out of our FA late this morning.
202 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A Pacific low pressure trough and cold front will bring widespread snow to the western mountains this evening tapering off through the night. Behind the cold front strong north winds will blow on Monday across northern Johnson county. Temperatures will cool on Monday behind a cold front with decreasing winds. Dry and warmer conditions are then expected through mid week with lighter winds as a large high pressure ridge builds over the western U.
An upper/mid level trough will dig into the plains and cut off over the Mississippi Valley before lifting northeast. Have allowed for some variance/slower motion to the precip field that follows in the wake of the front/trough.
334 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry northwest flow will be the theme for the majority of this work week in response to persistent longwave ridging slowly amplifying along the Pacific coast.
330 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Currently - A large high pressure system extending along the Atlantic coast continues to bring moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Forecast - Winds will trend downwards over the next day or two as the previously mentioned area of high pressure lifts out to the northeast.
359 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Currently, a cold front extends from eastern Wisconsin to Houston, Texas ahead of a deep upper level trough. As the trough crawls slowly to the east it will push rain ahead of it. The tight pressure gradient leading the trough is fueling gusty southerly winds today and keeping temperatures seasonably warm in the upper 70s and a few places will cross into the low 80s. After the front moves through and moisture wraps around a low pressure center, more scattered showers will work their way through the rest of the day.
Cold front shows up well on radar mosaic, now nearing the IL/IN/KY border. Latest short-range model guidance continues to scattered showers this evening along and west of the I-65 corridor and then a more solid band of rain moving in overnight, as the low-level jet picks up. The lowest values are 2. Currently, a cold front extends from eastern Wisconsin to Houston, Texas ahead of a deep upper level trough. As the trough crawls slowly to the east it will push rain ahead of it. The tight pressure gradient leading the trough is fueling gusty southerly winds today and keeping temperatures seasonably warm in the upper 70s and a few places will cross into the low 80s. After the front moves through and moisture wraps around a low pressure center, more scattered showers will work their way through the rest of the day.
309 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Expect a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry weather Monday as high pressure remains over the area.
Quiet weather will continue over south Texas as a mid level ridge remains over the region.
1143 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (This evening through Saturday night) From a meteorology standpoint, we are still between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. The cool night time temperatures we've been seeing will continue for the next two nights (lows in the low to mid 60s along the Southshore and LA coast, and low to mid 50s elsewhere). The sky will be clear and humidity will continue to be very low, indicated by Precipitable Water values in the lowest 10 percent statistically, giving us essentially no chances for rain.
- Rain possible midweek, followed by cooler weather.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching from Maine to Wisconsin early this afternoon. High pressure will remain at the surface, which should lead to another quiet and cool night. Low level winds will shift to the northeast, which may keep temps slightly cooler over far northeast WI than today.
Northwest flow aloft and leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will be the main weather influences for the short term. Winds will increase some late Saturday morning with daytime heating, but 15-20 mph only the expected gusts as the aforementioned leeside trough fills due to the upper level ridge starting to break down with increasing divergence aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will be just a degree or two less than that of Friday due to the not as strong south winds but still on the warmer than average side of things for this time of year.
1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low will continue to churn around Jackson, Wyoming through Saturday afternoon. An upper low over northern Sonora will also remain nearly stationary through Saturday afternoon but will have little to no effect on our weather locally.
The center of this ridge will reorient more to the northwest tonight into Saturday in response to Hurricane Ian tracking north through the Carolinas.
A ridge of high pressure continues to poke into northern MI from the east. Expect this to expand tonight, as mid-level fgen is increasing ahead of building high pressure in central Canada. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fairly zonal flow evident aloft this afternoon across the Great Lakes while upper-level low pressure drops in to the Intermountain West. Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the near-term forecast period as ~1028mb high pressure remains situated atop the Great Lakes region.
The 500 mb closed low over the northern Rocky Mountains continues to gradually dig southward towards the northern periphery of the Great Basin, while a mid-level, smaller-scale vorticity lobe evident on water vapor imagery remains present over Sonora. The compact, barotropic low over Sonora embedded within the southern-stream 250 mb trough associated with the closed low to the north will continue to facilitate a cirrus deck advecting overhead out of the southwest. The light breeze will diminish as the boundary-layer decouples this evening, and the combination of a clear sky and light winds will result in temperatures falling into the lower-middle 50s area-wide.
Afternoon highs will run from the low-80s across the east (continued Canadian high influence) to upper-80s/a few low-90s across western Oklahoma and north Texas. Increasing high cloud coverage may keep overnight temperatures slightly warmer than the NBM afternoon initialization, with small modifications made. Ridging aloft will contribute to a dry and warm afternoon with mid to upper-80s highs across the CWA.
334 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Impacts are low through the short term as a trough continues to dig into the northern Rockies. Warm air advection ahead of the trough helps spark chances for showers and maybe an isolated rumble of thunder at times throughout the weekend. Some mixing is observed through the lower levels, but lapse rates remain at or below 7 degrees C/km.
Saturday will start a period of gradual change across Nebraska as the stacked low over the northern Rockies starts making slow progress across the Plains and pushing a weak cold front into the region. This will create a wide spread in temperatures from west to east with highs ranging from the lower 70s across the panhandle to the lower and middle 80s east of highway 61. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement showing a sluggish pattern as the closed low moving through the northern Rockies and the circulation of Ian combine with a ridge through the midwest to create an omega block.
With the previously mentioned nearly stationary and elongated low over western SD, the pressure gradient on the east side of the low will continue to produce gusty southeasterly winds over the eastern half of SD and into west-central MN.
Cloud cover will begin exiting as the low tracks inland, and precipitation chances will be minimal except over the far eastern GA counties today and tonight.
Similar to this afternoon, the low-level air mass will remain relatively dry, so we will only mention a chance of sprinkles. This Weekend: A midlevel ridge will remain stationary over the central part of the nation this weekend, immediately downstream from a mid/upper- level low over the northern Rockies.
High pressure layered from the Great Lakes into the Midwest/lower MS Valley states continues to maintain quiet wx conditions for the central TN Valley.
An omega blocking pattern will continue, with the remnants of Ian lingering across the eastern CONUS, and a vertically-stacked cut-off upper-level low progged across the Intermountain West states. There may be a bit more cloud cover today across northeastern Iowa due to some subtle low-level warm air advection and isentropic ascent developing along the high pressure ridge axis. However, with very dry air in the lower levels per the NAM, GFS, and RAP soundings, no precipitation is anticipated. Tonight's lows will once again become cool, dipping into the lower to middle 40s.
At the surface, inverted trof trof extends northward into south-central SD. Highs today will be in the 60s to mid 70s in northeast WY and far western SD, but into the mid 80s over south-central SD to the east of the inverted trof.
The pairing between central CONUS ridge amplification and eastern Canadian troughing act to block the northward advance causing the disturbance to degrade over the weekend. Still expect afternoon gusts in the 20-25 mph range today for the Greater Metro area as the northwest periphery of the low-level wind field brushes past the southern waterways, although recent model trends have lowered the coverage/frequency of 30 mph peak winds. Partial cloud coverage props up overnight lows to around 50F as a transient back-door (dry) cold front spills through Southeast Michigan.