Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
415 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020 A weak warm front will lift across the area tonight. Warm and humid conditions will occur with highs getting a few degrees warmer than today and lows likely being just a bit warmer as well. A cold front will bring cooler, drier conditions into the weekend.
317 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020 The upper ridge will continue to build over GA through the short term. as an upper trough builds into the Southern Plains. as the ridge helps to suppress convection. Region remains primarily influenced by upper ridging through the majority of the period, although the forecast area is generally on the periphery of the ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic coastal region.
Otherwise, there will probably be a break in the action Sunday morning in the cwa with new development Sunday afternoon and night with the main upper level low pressure trough out west bringing more lift to our region. The surface cold front should push through most of the region through Sunday afternoon with possible breezy conditions in the western cwa.
However, the air mass remains quite stable from the early morning convection, although the mosaic radar imagery indicates some weak elevated -SHRA along the Red River Valley of NNE TX associated with an axis of H700 theta-e ridging along the base of the trough.
Cold front will move through and just about clear the area by 12z. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s in northeast Colorado behind the front to the lower 60s in Norton and Graham counties ahead of it. Instead will look west to the Front Range where large complex of rain/isolated thunderstorms will develop as main upper trough axis emerges.
Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A trough of low pressure aloft will keep an unsettled weather pattern over most of the region today through Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit cool in this low pressure trough, with highs reaching only into the 60s and lows dropping down into the 40s.
359 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020 Low pressure near Chicago will track across lower Michigan through Sunday bringing a warm front north across Ohio and stalling a cold front near the OH/MI border. High pressure will then be centered off the East Coast through mid week while a cold front lingers across the Midwest.
Tomorrow afternoon, a cold front will approach central KS where the best chance for severe storms will exist for our area.
Compact energy over Iowa early this afternoon will continue to the northeast bringing its associated warm front into northern Illinois. Pattern not expected to change much over the next several days with ridging along the east coast and a broad weakness over the central U. Toward the end of the week the ridge to our east is expected to begin to break down as northern stream energy finally is able to make its way down into the Midwest. Big question is how far south the associated cold front will get before stalling out.
312 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020 The upper-level pattern remains messy across North America, with the closed over the Upper Midwest moving away, another closed low slowly moving through the northern Rockies, and a MCS diving southeast into the southeastern US, under the upper ridge, spreading some cirrus over the area. This was all inhibiting the longwave pattern from really dominating over the region and likely helped temperatures from warming to their potential given the upper ridging. With that said, once the Upper Midwest low moves away, the upper ridge over the eastern half of country should allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow. With the western low moving into the Plains tomorrow and the ridge to the east, low- level flow will allow copious amounts of moisture to advect into the region.
A mid-level ridge builds over the area overnight keeping the area relatively dry into tomorrow. Another hot day in store for tomorrow with highs in the low 90s inland and mid 80s near the Atlantic coast.
To the west, a large upper trough was centered over Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. A cold front is expected to approach the region from the west, with a warm front stretching across southern Nebraska. Temperatures fall into the upper 40s to low 60s overnight as a cold front moves through the area. The upper trough previously over the Great Basin advances towards the central Rockies, and another round of showers and storms is forecast from the afternoon through Sunday night. Forecast period will start with the winding down of precipitation from west to east as H5 trough moves east, with southern extent gradually becoming cut off through the start of the week. Overall, aside from ongoing showers and thunderstorms at the start of the period, pattern will be fairly quiet across region as upper level ridging dominates.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Compact upper low moving across Iowa this afternoon with the center located near Iowa Falls at 1 pm. These dew points will be the highest so far this spring season and could help fuel CAPE values over 3000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon. Some modest low level shear and good stretching in the low levels with good 0-3 km CAPE could lead to an isolated tornado threat as well.
Satellite showing the low clouds this morning starting to burn off with only some thin cirrus leftover. The upper low that has been pestering the region for the last few days continues to churn across Iowa this morning. Initial instability will quickly fade as cooler, more stable post frontal air moves in.
1055 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020 Satellite showing the low clouds this morning starting to burn off with only some thin cirrus leftover. The upper low that has been pestering the region for the last few days continues to churn across Iowa this morning. Initial instability will quickly fade as cooler, more stable post frontal air moves in.
In addition, an EML moves overhead that would support increasing buoyancy ahead of a slowly moving cold front across the Dakotas.
A cold upper level low pressure trough centered over southeast Idaho and northern Utah this morning will continue to exit eastward this afternoon. The best chance of precipitation today will be over the mountains of Baker County Oregon and central Idaho this afternoon and evening, triggered by a weak disturbance following the flow south along the western flank of the trough. There is adequate moisture and instability to support convective showers over the higher terrain, which should end after sunset.
Shower and thunderstorm chances then linger through midweek as the flow becomes slowed down by an upper low meandering over the southern Plains.
Most of Sunday will remain dry until the evening again, as the dryline and stalling cold front initiate storms over the panhandles and perhaps extreme NW OK.
218 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020 Southwesterly flow aloft will continue tonight into Sunday as a trough axis sharpens from ERN MT into western Chihuahua. The upper level trough to our west will deepen as it inches closer to the CWA creating upper level southwest flow and large scale lift aloft.
547 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020 A few showers are still possible toward the New York/Pennsylvania state border this evening as low pressure pushes further east off the Jersey coast. High pressure will build across the region tonight providing dry weather area wide. A warm front approaching the region on Sunday will increase the risk for a few showers over the far western counties late Sunday, with more widespread coverage Sunday night. High pressure will build across the region tonight providing dry weather area wide. A warm front approaching the region on Sunday will increase the risk for a few showers over the far western counties toward the tail end of the day. Showers more widespread Sunday night with warm frontal passage.
For tomorrow, moisture will be lifting from the south up across the area as a trough develops. This will allow for increasing rain chances from south to north through the day, with highs in the mid 80s south to the lower 90s north.
This primarily due to an approaching southern stream trough. A surface to lower level ridge continues to stretch across Florida, keeping winds moderate and broadly out of the east. Short Term Update - The wet pattern will continue through the overnight period as the upper level trough continues to edge towards the Keys. Surface ridging to our north will maintain moderate easterly breezes. A ridge to our north will maintain moderate easterly breezes across Keys waters.
Dry weather, increasing interior temperatures, and breezy winds are expected for the foreseeable future as high pressure continues to build over Northwest California. By early in the coming week, high temperatures across the interior will climb into the lower to upper 90s. Winds have become a bit gusty again today, particularly over ridgetops and along the coast (albeit lighter than yesterday). The main concern for the forecast will be increasing interior temperatures as high pressure builds over the West Coast.
Lows will remain mild in the low to mid 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
A low pressure system moving into Wyoming today and across eastern Montana Sunday will bring rain and mountain snow to eastern portions of north-central, central, and southwest Montana today with showers possible this afternoon elsewhere. Temperatures will remain cooler than average today before somewhat warmer and drier conditions develop Sunday with mainly dry and seasonable conditions expected on the Memorial Day holiday. Precipitation gradually ends by Sunday evening over Fergus County, with ridging aloft moving overhead ahead of zonal flow aloft. Expect below normal temperatures today trending warmer closer to normal for daytime highs Sunday. Drier conditions develop from west to east across the forecast area as the upper level low moves across the Dakotas, with high pressure ridging giving way to increasing zonal flow and passing disturbances from the west for the rest of the week.
Upper ridge centered over the western Atlantic near the Bahamas will continue to ridge over our area overnight.
Storms continuing to diminish this evening over southeast portions of the forecast area with stronger convection associated with the upper wave remaining well north of the area in the lower Great Lakes. Ridging aloft and at the surface will build in late tonight and enable skies to go mostly clear across much of the area. A large trough will be set up over the central U.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020/ Southwesterly flow aloft will continue tonight into Sunday as a trough axis sharpens from ERN MT into western Chihuahua. The upper level trough to our west will deepen as it inches closer to the CWA creating upper level southwest flow and large scale lift aloft.
Then a significant warming trend will begin early in the week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the Great Basin.
342 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020 A trough of low pressure is moving through Wyoming and continuing into South Dakota through this weekend bringing instability to the Yellowstone River Valley area south and east. The most recent models have the low north enough to increase QPF along the south and southeastern zones, thus confidence is increasing that many areas south of MT Highway 200 could see nearly half an inch and up to an inch in the Yellowstone River Valley. Lows in the low to mid 40s.
Compact energy over Iowa early this afternoon will continue to the northeast bringing its associated warm front into northern Illinois. Pattern not expected to change much over the next several days with ridging along the east coast and a broad weakness over the central U. Toward the end of the week the ridge to our east is expected to begin to break down as northern stream energy finally is able to make its way down into the Midwest. Big question is how far south the associated cold front will get before stalling out. Winds will remain gusty from the ssw, as the Low pressure system continues lifting towards the upper Midwest.
503 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020 Upper level analysis has the forecast area in southwest flow, with an upper low over western Wyoming/eastern Idaho and another low further north over Canada. Both of these upper lows are creating a long wave trough down the Rockies, allowing Pacific moisture to stream up from the southwest. Sunday will be breezy and cooler with some showers possible due to cold advection aloft.
553 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020 The upper-level pattern remains messy across North America, with the closed over the Upper Midwest moving away, another closed low slowly moving through the northern Rockies, and a MCS diving southeast into the southeastern US, under the upper ridge, spreading some cirrus over the area. This was all inhibiting the longwave pattern from really dominating over the region and likely helped temperatures from warming to their potential given the upper ridging. With that said, once the Upper Midwest low moves away, the upper ridge over the eastern half of country should allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow. With the western low moving into the Plains tomorrow and the ridge to the east, low- level flow will allow copious amounts of moisture to advect into the region.
By Sunday, a strong area of high pressure will move into the area from the west, leading to a warming trend.
246 PM PDT Sat May 23 2020 Warmer conditions, along with dry weather and light winds, are expected each day through the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level analysis has the forecast area in southwest flow, with an upper low over western Wyoming/eastern Idaho and another low further north over Canada. Both of these upper lows are creating a long wave trough down the Rockies, allowing Pacific moisture to stream up from the southwest. Sunday will be breezy and cooler with some showers possible due to cold advection aloft.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 88 67 86 68 / 20 30 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 87 65 85 65 / 20 30 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 87 65 86 65 / 20 30 20 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 84 62 83 61 / 20 30 20 40 20.
VFR for the next few days as high pressure builds into the region.
601 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020 Early this afternoon, a cold front has sparked convection out west in the vicinity of the MT/WY/SD border. With 0-6 km deep layer shear oriented more parallel to the cold front with initial storms this afternoon and evening in western SD/NE, expect storms to merge into one or several complexes of storms. With northeastward storm motion and the stronger mid level lapse rates, elevated instability, and moisture remaining confined in close proximity to the cold front, convection will take a while to reach the forecast area.
857 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020 High pressure continues across the CWA this evening. /Issued 317 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020/ The upper ridge will continue to build over GA through the short term. as an upper trough builds into the Southern Plains. as the ridge helps to suppress convection. Region remains primarily influenced by upper ridging through the majority of the period, although the forecast area is generally on the periphery of the ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic coastal region.
Cut some Sky cover back, to account for the decrease in clouds as the Low pressure system lifts northeast out of the lower Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes overnight. Compact energy over Iowa early this afternoon will continue to the northeast bringing its associated warm front into northern Illinois. Pattern not expected to change much over the next several days with ridging along the east coast and a broad weakness over the central U. Toward the end of the week the ridge to our east is expected to begin to break down as northern stream energy finally is able to make its way down into the Midwest. Big question is how far south the associated cold front will get before stalling out. Winds will remain gusty from the ssw, as the Low pressure system continues lifting towards the upper Midwest.
604 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020 The upper-level pattern remains messy across North America, with the closed over the Upper Midwest moving away, another closed low slowly moving through the northern Rockies, and a MCS diving southeast into the southeastern US, under the upper ridge, spreading some cirrus over the area. This was all inhibiting the longwave pattern from really dominating over the region and likely helped temperatures from warming to their potential given the upper ridging. With that said, once the Upper Midwest low moves away, the upper ridge over the eastern half of country should allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow. With the western low moving into the Plains tomorrow and the ridge to the east, low- level flow will allow copious amounts of moisture to advect into the region.
This afternoon through Sunday night The upper level low is currently moving north-northeast along the Idaho/Wyoming border. The track of the upper low will dictate where the bands of precip will be the heaviest into the evening.
323 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020 Our upper low was spinning over western Wyoming this afternoon, and is expected to drift northeast into southeast Montana by Sunday morning. We are looking for the best precipitation coverage to shift east overnight into Sunday, and then slowly wind down as the upper low shifts east of Montana Sunday night. By the end of the weak with the ridging, temperatures will be getting into the 80s if not approaching the 90s.
/Issued 317 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020/ The upper ridge will continue to build over GA through the short term. as an upper trough builds into the Southern Plains. as the ridge helps to suppress convection. Region remains primarily influenced by upper ridging through the majority of the period, although the forecast area is generally on the periphery of the ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic coastal region.
The resultant hodographs will be strongly sheared with the lowest levels with a notable weakening aloft.
Didn't go quite as agressive with the drying out as the high-res models wanted to go, which bring the drying all the way into Petroleum and Garfield Counties. 97 A trough of low pressure is moving through Wyoming and continuing into South Dakota through this weekend bringing instability to the Yellowstone River Valley area south and east. The most recent models have the low north enough to increase QPF along the south and southeastern zones, thus confidence is increasing that many areas south of MT Highway 200 could see nearly half an inch and up to an inch in the Yellowstone River Valley. Lows in the low to mid 40s.
327 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A cold front will move through today and usher in some lower humidity.
A weak cold front will move southwest from North Carolina tonight and become stationary near the area Monday. High pressure will build south from the Mid Atlantic as a weak trough develops along the coast resulting in onshore flow. This will lead to unsettled and cooler weather through midweek. Through today weak high pressure ridge will begin building into the area with the main concern being the potential for diurnal convection. Models are trending cooler and unsettled especially by Monday and Monday night. Pressure ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast will be building down the eastern seaboard. Upper ridge offshore extending into eastern SC. Several weak short waves rotating north around ridge will provide lift especially in the afternoon. Temps a little cooler than normal in the low to mid 80s.
Shear should be the lowest near the MO border and highest in areas west of a line from Wayne to David City.
A mid-level ridge builds over the area overnight keeping the area relatively dry into tomorrow. Another hot day in store for tomorrow with highs in the low 90s inland and mid 80s near the Atlantic coast. On Monday, the ridge over the Western Atlantic moves northward as an upper trough digs into Texas.
1038 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020 Early this afternoon, a cold front has sparked convection out west in the vicinity of the MT/WY/SD border. With 0-6 km deep layer shear oriented more parallel to the cold front with initial storms this afternoon and evening in western SD/NE, expect storms to merge into one or several complexes of storms. With northeastward storm motion and the stronger mid level lapse rates, elevated instability, and moisture remaining confined in close proximity to the cold front, convection will take a while to reach the forecast area.
244 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Warm front pushing across the area yesterday now well north, with upper ridge building along the Atlantic seaboard. By days end, upper ridge will be well established across the US eastern 1/3, while pretty good upper jet carves out deep trough across the nations mid-section. This upper trough will eventually form a cutoff upper low, which will set the stage for what will hold at least through through late Thu. Disconnected upper trough drops down across the region and swings across the mid-state late Sat. This also expected to force a cold front just of the area early Sun. Upper low across the southern plains remains cutoff.
324 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Minor chances for precipitation - Increasing heat and humidity this upcoming week -- Minor chances for precipitation -- A large dome of high pressure over the southeast US will pump warmer air north across the Great Lakes. We'll be on the periphery of the ridge and so any short waves that move eastward will nibble at the ridge, but likely be deflected northward.
321 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Onshore flow will persist through Monday keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas with Monday being quite cool with cloud weather expected. High pressure builds over the East Coast leading to a significant warm up into the middle and end of the week.
An upper trough will remain in place over Utah through Sunday. A significant warming trend is then expected through the coming week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the Great Basin. An upper low remains centered over the Yellowstone area this evening, with a mean trough extending across Utah. Most other northern valleys, were expected to remain above freezing due to cloud cover. However, even if cloud cover continues trending downward tonight, the suite of model solutions suggest that temperatures will most likely remain above or just near freezing. The trough will gradually shift east of the area late tomorrow, with a ridge building into the Great Basin. This ridge will be over Utah mid/late week.
Storms continuing to diminish this evening over southeast portions of the forecast area with stronger convection associated with the upper wave remaining well north of the area in the lower Great Lakes. Ridging aloft and at the surface will build in late tonight and enable skies to go mostly clear across much of the area. A large trough will be set up over the central U. Models and ensembles agree split flow will result in the faster flow to graze the upper Great Lakes as an upper low settles across the southern Plains. Quiet conditions are expected overnight as ridging aloft and at the surface develops. The ridging will hold into Sunday afternoon and should keep skies mainly sunny.
besides the fronts passing to our north, the other reason we are not expecting rain is that a ridge is beginning to build across Oregon and California. The ridge axis will move onshore Monday, and it will keep on building as it continues east. Have trimmed the previous discussion, found below, to highlight information on expected thunderstorm activity in the area after the ridge begins to break down.
836 PM PDT Sat May 23 2020 Very quiet weather tonight and for the next few days with upper level ridge builds in. High pressure building into the region. VFR for the next few days as high pressure builds into the region.
427 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A warm front will lift north across the area this morning.