Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, more substantial rain chances will arrive late tonight across the extreme west northwest zones with deep moisture increasing between the subtropical ridge over the southeast and longwave trough over the west (CONUS). These rain chances will continue all week and slowly shift east as the aforementioned trough traverses the central plains. In addition, a fairly stout cold front will accompany this feature Wed-Thu. Strong to severe storms will be possible each day thru Thu, but the most likely time will be Wed evening over north central OK along the cold front. Another cold front is expected Sat and PoPs will also accompany it over the northern half of OK initially.
Surface winds will stay strong all day long across the region as a lee side trough and deepening low pressure in eastern Colorado will continue a tight pressure gradient across western Kansas. A strong yet slow moving cold front will move across northwest Kansas through the day on Tuesday and will combine with a large area of moisture and an upper level disturbance moving in from the southwest.
Satellite imagery showed and surface observations confirmed that patchy dense fog that has developed along the Highway 84 corridor was lasting longer than expected. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Not much change anticipated in the short term forecast as deep layered ridge remains parked across the region. After a somewhat cool start of the day in the mid to upper 60s, afternoon temperatures should warm similarly to yesterday with maximums as they were or perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The dry air in the lower levels will support another day of deep mixing and afternoon dewpoints falling into the mid 60s. While conditions will be hot, heat indices will not pose a problem with the lower dewpoints.
/issued 350 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The anomalous H5 ridge (roughly 596dam) across the mid Mississippi River Valley will continue to hold its place through the short term period. Our region will remain on the southwest side of the ridge allowing for a deep layer southeasterly flow.
Temperatures will average much cooler than normal through Tuesday.
Upper trough extending from the northern Rockies to Nevada will continue to be the main weather maker over the next couple of days as it gradually rotates northeastward. Next few early mornings will see temps around or below freezing for most of the area. So preparation for freezing temperatures (protect plants etc) is recommended. However, the chance of rain showers/high elevation snow will increase across the southwest mountains and foothills as another impulse related to the upper trough moves up from Idaho this afternoon. Tuesday, southerly isentropic lift in front of the upper trough will push another slug of moisture up from the south in the morning. Most of this will end Tuesday night with just some lingering snow in the high country. The high country could see a few inches of accumulation through Tuesday evening.
Temperatures are cool this morning, but ample clouds and shower activity have kept them slightly warmer than previously expected. The very slow moving, unseasonably cold upper level trough that has brought us rain and much below normal temperatures will linger over our area through tonight, with showers ongoing into this evening, although coverage will focus along and east of the Cascades after late morning. The trough will shift east of our area on Tuesday while a ridge builds toward the Pacific Northwest coast.
An upper ridge will bring dry weather today and Tuesday.
/issued 312 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ A strong subtropical ridge (aka Death Ridge) will maintain its grip on the Mid-South through midweek, resulting in what is essentially a copy and paste forecast for the next 3 days. Strong subsidence associated with this ridge will preclude convection across the CWA with mostly sunny conditions and light south winds.
637 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with a diffuse cold front in the area. Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week. The upper ridge will remain entrenched over the Deep South today. Another day of above normal temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 90s. The cold front will remain in the area overnight, and showers could persist through the late evening before dissipating.
436 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Deep upper trof continues over the western CONUS per water vapor. At the surface, low center is over central SD with cold front having moved through all but far south central SD early this morning.
256 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Southeast United States while an upper level trough remains across much of the western CONUS through the next 24 hours. The proximity of the upper level ridge will result in hot and generally dry conditions, with above normal temperatures. Deep south to southeasterly flow will result in plenty of moisture across the region, but the lack of a trigger along with the influence of the aforementioned ridge should help to keep rain chances low. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, with highs Tuesday afternoon in the low to mid 90s.
This will be the story of the next couple of days with strong high pressure over the region. Summer-like high pressure will remain over the region through this taf period and well beyond.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate thus promoting ample daytime heating and cu development, as well as iso shra/tsra, however all terminals should remain dry.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had an >1018mb ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. Patchy light fog development will be possible in the south along the Highway 84 corridor but dense fog is not currently anticipated.
Conditions will gradually dry out early this evening from southwest to northeast as this low pushes eastward into the Great Lakes region. Although cloud cover is expected to remain, temperatures should drop below freezing tonight across western North Dakota, as suggested by the latest blend of model guidance. In addition, temperatures will only be in the lower 40s this evening.
Cloudy conditions then lingered through the afternoon with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 40s.
Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week. The upper ridge will remain entrenched over the Deep South this afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s. The cold front will remain in the area overnight, and showers could persist through the late evening before dissipating.
This will be the story of the next couple of days with strong high pressure over the region.
An upper ridge will bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday.
This is due to very strong and persistent stacked ridging over the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Vallies which maintains our area under a dry and stable NE flow. Meanwhile an upper level low will form on the southern extent of an elongated trough over the Gulf.
1131 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Deep upper trof continues over the western CONUS per water vapor. At the surface, low center is over central SD with cold front having moved through all but far south central SD early this morning.
/issued 303 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ An anomalous 5h height pattern is in place across the CONUS with a strong ridge across the srn states and a deep/cold trof in the nwrn states. East of said nwrn trof is an upper level jet that will not move too much.
928 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019 An unseasonable cold upper low will effect weather over the Inland Northwest until Tuesday with spotty snow showers and an early freeze with low temperatures in the mid 20s and lower 30s.
227 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with a diffuse cold front in the area. Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week.
Temperatures will average much cooler than normal Tuesday.
138 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Mean western/central CONUS trough will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather through mid week. Primary cold front has pushed through the region with a lingering/waning precip band per jet streak/FGEN forcing shifting east.
322 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Record and near record heat to continue through midweek, under an exceptionally strong and persistent upper level subtropical height ridge.
A persistent trough over the western states will bring continued breezy southwest winds on Tuesday.
However, the region remains under a broad trough of low pressure that will keep atmospheric conditions unstable enough for afternoon showers the next couple days. Patchy freezing fog is expected to develop over the next couple nights across both western Montana and north- central Idaho valleys.
However, as the low-level jet develops after midnight, we expect some showers to re-develop across most of the region.
The highest rain amounts are expected to be to our west though there should be enough to create a flash flooding threat for Lea, Eddy, and Culberson counties.
Warmer recent temperatures should limit the amount of slick roads and accumulation by Tuesday afternoon, as temps should warm to the upper 30s to near 40 by late afternoon.
Still expect dry and very warm weather through at least Tuesday as both the GFS/NAM are showing a 500mb upper high remaining centered over the Mid South through tomorrow night. The cold front currently over eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska won't move into northern Missouri until Tuesday night. In the meantime, the area will remain under the influence of the upper high with mainly clear skies. There will be a chance of thunderstorms late tomorrow night over far northeast Missouri into west central Illinois as there will be increasing low level moisture convergence ahead of an approach cold front.
A broad upper low is lingering to our north this afternoon. Freezing temperatures are once again expected tonight across the Snake River Plain.
1028 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019 An unseasonable cold upper low will effect weather over the Inland Northwest until Tuesday with spotty snow showers and an early freeze with low temperatures in the mid 20s and lower 30s.
407 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure is centered off to the south. This will lead low temperatures into the lower to mid 60s in the valleys and mid to upper 60s on the ridges. The period will begin with upper level ridging remaining in control just off to the south.
Low temperatures will dip into the lower 70's except near the coast where the water will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer.
Cold front situated along the SD/MN border area will continue to push east tonight, with a cooler airmass infiltrating the entire forecast area. As the front settles out south of the region, the highest chances for rain will also head south. However, with a mid level trof to the west of the Northern Plains, chances for light rain will continue across the region through mid-week.
/22/ Satellite imagery showed and surface observations confirmed that patchy dense fog that has developed along the Highway 84 corridor was lasting longer than expected. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Not much change anticipated in the short term forecast as deep layered ridge remains parked across the region. After a somewhat cool start of the day in the mid to upper 60s, afternoon temperatures should warm similarly to yesterday with maximums as they were or perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The dry air in the lower levels will support another day of deep mixing and afternoon dewpoints falling into the mid 60s. While conditions will be hot, heat indices will not pose a problem with the lower dewpoints.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ With center of 594 upper lvl ridge centered over Arklamiss Tuesday, Rain chances will remain west of cwa as hot but stable airmass with very dry mid lvls remain in place. As the higher morning dewpoints mix out with dry air aloft, heat indices will remain below the 105 degree threshold despite air temps in the middle 90's across much of the cwa.
632 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Mainly dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday under high pressure.
924 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Mainly dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday under high pressure.
These are forming in association with the large upper low that has dominated our weather the past few days.
355 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 The persistent upper level trough across the western states will maintain cool temperatures across the region early in the week. High pressure aloft will develop over the Great Basin midweek, bringing a return to seasonal temperatures across Utah.
531 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Mean western/central CONUS trough will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather through mid week. Primary cold front has pushed through the region with a lingering/waning precip band per jet streak/FGEN forcing shifting east.
312 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain between high pressure to the southeast and strong low pressure to the northwest.
Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and upper 70s coast to around 80 south coastal beaches.
This low level jet will also produce another round of MVFR stratus for all South Central Texas terminals by 08Z with improvement to VFR mid- morning Tuesday. However, as the low-level jet develops after midnight, we expect some showers to re-develop across most of the region.
1049 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Upper level ridging will dominate through the middle of the week and above normal temperatures are forecast through much of the week.
Ranging from the middle 60s over the plateau to the lower 70s at BNA.
927 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 A stable atmosphere will remain in place overnight as a persistent ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the ArkLaTex. At the surface, high pressure centered across the deep South to maintain light southerly flow areawide. Otherwise, temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s. /issued 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail across area terminals through the forecast period ending 02/00Z. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ With center of 594 upper lvl ridge centered over Arklamiss Tuesday, Rain chances will remain west of cwa as hot but stable airmass with very dry mid lvls remain in place. As the higher morning dewpoints mix out with dry air aloft, heat indices will remain below the 105 degree threshold despite air temps in the middle 90's across much of the cwa.
630 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail across area terminals through the forecast period ending 02/00Z. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ With center of 594 upper lvl ridge centered over Arklamiss Tuesday, Rain chances will remain west of cwa as hot but stable airmass with very dry mid lvls remain in place. As the higher morning dewpoints mix out with dry air aloft, heat indices will remain below the 105 degree threshold despite air temps in the middle 90's across much of the cwa.
The hot and dry weather persists through the period as the anomalously strong ridge remains the main driver of area weather. Low to mid level moisture nudges upward a little as our area will lie on the southern periphery of the high. Lows will range from the lower to middle 70s close to the coast to upper 60s to low 70s inland. High temperatures tomorrow once again challenge record highs, with middle to upper 90s along and north of Interstate 10, to the lower 90s near the coast.
On Tuesday, an upper trough positioned across the Intermountain West in tandem with an upper ridge over the Southeast U. Shower chances increase to likely again Tuesday night as the base of the upper trough swings through Wyoming and western Colorado.
830 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Upper level ridging will dominate through the middle of the week and above normal temperatures are forecast through much of the week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 95 71 96 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 66 89 / 10 10 0 0.
Cooler conditions will continue through Tuesday before a pattern change brings a warming trend that returns temperatures to normal. The synoptic weather pattern has two primary features over the CONUS including amplified troughing in the west and strong high pressure centered over the southeast. The trough will be on the move tomorrow but still forecast to be over the area influencing temperatures and winds.
The inverted trough is slowly migrating westward. Despite this high PW value, satellite derived products indicate an area of drier air is pushing in with the northeast flow. Thereafter the gradient will gradually slacken as an inverted trough moves across our waters.
752 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with a diffuse cold front in the area. Otherwise, ridging will dominate through the middle of the week.
245 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Cooler weather along with a chance of showers continues today. Cool and unsettled weather remains over northern California this afternoon as high pressure exits the region. By tomorrow, high pressure will be building just to our west, which will allow for temperatures to gradually moderate the next several days.
/issued 322 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ Record and near record heat to continue through midweek, under an exceptionally strong and persistent upper level subtropical height ridge.
528 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain between high pressure to the southeast and strong low pressure to the northwest.
Tuesday afternoon will feature rising midlevel heights that will favor clear sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures compared to Monday.
The warmer conditions will prevail trough the weekend.
/issued 833 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ An upper ridge remains centralized over the Mid-South. /issued 322 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ Record and near record heat to continue through midweek, under an exceptionally strong and persistent upper level subtropical height ridge. The robust upper ridge will slightly weaken and become elongated from Texas to North Carolina through Wednesday. During that time, no chance of rain, and max temps continuing in the low to mid 90s. By Wednesday night, a northern branch upper low will lift from the northern plains to western Great Lakes. A midlevel trof axis extending south of the upper low, and associated surface cold front, will pass through the mid-MS River valley.
As the high turns clockwise and the low counterclockwise, we are stuck in the middle with Pacific moisture being siphoned up between the two systems. This pattern will continue until Wednesday morning when the upper low begins to eject into the Northern Plains and the ridge elongates across the southeast.
The current weather continue to dominated by a large upper level ridge which currently cover the eastern half of the U. With the ridge in place, today will be another dry and hot day across the region with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.
1118 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain between high pressure to the southeast and strong low pressure to the northwest. Models are in pretty good agreement pushing the upper level trough axis across the region Wednesday morning as the Pacific NW low moves east. This eastward track will force the stationary front south into northern AZ and NM, bringing cooler temperatures across the region on Wednesday. A transitory ridge briefly crosses the region Wednesday night, allowing for light drainage flow overnight.
Weak upper ridging building into the region this evening as upper trough that brought unsettled conditions over the weekend finally pulls away. An upper ridge will bring dry weather tonight and Tuesday. An upper level trough will keep a chance of showers in the forecast through the end of the week.
322 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 The upper level pattern will remain southwest across the region as the Panhandles remain sandwiched in between an upper level trough over the northwest U. and an upper level ridge over the southeast U. This pattern will remain this way until an upper level disturbance within the base of the parent upper level trough swings eastward across the Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As the upper level trough moves east onto the northern plains it will cause our flow aloft to become ever so slightly west southwest which may pinch off the tropical moisture plume for a short time.
Hot and dry again Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure over the southeast CONUS persists.
This along with high pressure building aloft should result in fewer showers and storms across the area today. This ridge should remain in place through the short term period.
Challenge continues on Wednesday, with lingering outflow/storms somewhere across south central KS, and suspect cooler NAM could be more correct than collaborated forecast on temperatures, particularly across the middle section of the forecast area.
252 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Heat dome of high pressure will remain anchored over the southeast quarter of the nation today through Wednesday.
/GG/ Another warmer than normal night can be expected with clear skies and lows near or at 70 degrees area wide. Mid afternoon surface analysis had an >1018mb ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. Patchy light fog development will be possible in the south along the Highway 84 corridor but dense fog is not currently anticipated.
357 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A strong mid/upper level ridge remains in place across the region this morning with mostly clear skies continuing. Highs will again reach the low to mid 90s, establishing record highs for the date and likely setting a few all-time record highs for October along the way. Tonight will feature another night of ridge/valley splits as the valleys fall into the low to mid 60s with ridges staying around 70.
Low temperatures will dip into the lower 70's except near the coast where the water will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. Deep layer ridging will prevail through mid-week.
Today Through Wednesday Night 5960 meter ridge remains centered over the Mid South region at this time. With surface ridging centered east of Arkansas, southerly winds will remain, which will keep things rather humid, and temperatures on the warm side. The upper ridge will start to flatten out over the next couple of days.
919 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 The persistent upper level through with high pressure building into the region will maintain seasonably cool temperatures through mid-week. High pressure aloft will develop over the Great Basin by late week, bringing a return to seasonal temperatures across Utah.
High temperatures this afternoon should be near or slightly above persistence values due to a slightly warmer start to the day today compared to yesterday. Temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s and leaned toward the warmer MAV MET MOS values. A slow-moving cold front will approach far northwestern sections of the CWA late tonight, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This frontal boundary is forecast to become quasi- stationary on Wednesday confining the higher chances of precipitation to portions of central and northeast Missouri in addition to west-central Illinois. Elected to sharpen the temperature gradient slightly with highs ranging from the mid 70s in portions of northeast Missouri to the low 90s for the St.
Frontal boundary to move into the area later in the day Wednesday with noticeably cooler temperatures to filter in behind the front for the remainder of the work week.
Tonight a upper level trough will continue to dig across the northern Plains. This will send a cold front extending from west central Iowa into central Kansas Tonight a LLJ will develop across Kansas nosing into southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Big pattern change begins to impact the area Wed, but moreso Wed night as models have slowed the passage of the cold front.