Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
722 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A dying cold front will stall out just north of Pennsylvania over the next two days, as an anomalous upper level ridge expands westward into the Mid Atlantic region.
Widespread smoke and near record heat to continue this Labor Day across the Central California Interior as high pressure aloft prevails. Trough of low pressure will impact the region Tuesday, lowering afternoon high temperatures several degrees and bringing continued dangerous fire weather conditions.
137 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 A front will stall just north of Pennsylvania over the next two days, as a strong upper level ridge expands westward into the Mid Atlantic region.
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas today and tonight. A very strong cold front will extend from the New England to the southwest United States today before low pressure develops along the front over the Southern Plains and tracks into the Ohio Valley over the weekend.
A low pressure remains in the upper levels today over FL. At the mid levels, an inverted trough will be shifting north over central FL while at the surface, a weak trough will swing from east to west today.
Competing factors, warmer afternoon temperatures than yesterday but also higher dewpoints for example, do not lend a lot of confidence on which way this will play out. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 67 90 70 91 / 0 0 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 89 68 89 / 0 0 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 90 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 64 86 65 87 / 0 0 20 10 30.
The weak upper trough/shear axis responsible for this light shower activity should continue drifting NNE overnight and push farther away from the northern Brush Country.
Meanwhile, a persistent mid level ridge axis over the OH River valley is progged to gradually intensify over the next couple of days, preventing development of shower and tstm activity throughout the short term period. It now appears that the peak heating under the ridge will occur Wed, though today's highs are expected to be only slightly cooler. On Wed, high temps may exceed 90 in the east, closer to the higher mid level heights.
A warm front across Central Indiana is expected to slowly lift to northern Indiana today.
Ahead of this system, several short waves are embedded in the long wave trough that has penetrated the Northern Plains this week.
331 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Warmer and eventually more humid weather is in store for the next several days.
340 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 An upper-level low remains over the Florida peninsula early this morning, sandwiched between ridging to the east and west. For the rest of the week, the upper low will slowly move northward and weaken, with a weak surface inverted trough moving toward Florida from the Atlantic. High pressure to the north will keep light easterly winds in place for the next several days, with an onshore flow developing with the sea breeze each afternoon.
the cold front has pushed south of KCMO proper as tracked by the fine line on KEAX. This cluster of convection is being supported by the southeast churn of the 500mb trough down the Wasatch/Tetons Ranges. The upper trough will dig hard along the Colorado Plateau, with the surface front stalling, lingering from the northern reaches of the Llano Estacado to the Ozarks through midday.
203 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Upper low will cut off from the main flow today and meander over Utah and western Colorado through the short term period. Accompanying surface cold front will usher in much colder temperatures, windy conditions and a mixed bag of wintry precipitation to western parts of the area tonight and Wednesday morning. Tonight, as temperatures begin to fall into the lower 30s expecting a wintry mix in northeast Colorado and adjacent counties of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.
315 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Surface analysis revealed a cold front roughly just north of Wichita, KS to Kansas City, MO to Springfield, IL. Again the highest chances for this are along and especially north of Interstate 44. Have trended closer to the high res guidance and NAM which typically handles shallow airmasses better. The cold front may stall along I-44 this evening before attempting to lift north a tad tonight as more of an inverted trough takes shape with the progression of the upper level cut off low to the west. The upper low moves very little on Wednesday and with the lack of upper level support we have nudged highs up into the middle 80s (cooler in the northwest) along with a decrease in PoPs.
High pressure will be to the north northwest Today, as an inverted trough develops over the western Atlantic, and moves toward the region. The inverted trough will move to just east of the area Wednesday, and to the coast Wednesday night. Upper short wave energy will pivot north across western Atlantic ahead of the inverted trough. Showers will be possible throughout the day and Tonight at the coast, as weak troughs in the onshore flow pattern provides additional convergence. Expect chances to increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as the axis of the inverted trough gets closer to the coast.
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Above normal temperatures will continue across the Mid-South for the remainder of the work week as an upper ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the Mid-South. Although, some of the CAM models are showing a few showers developing late tonight into Wednesday morning across Eastern Arkansas which will still be on the periphery of the building ridge.
However, overnight temperatures will be even cooler with lows decreasing into the the mid 30s to 40s.
The ejecting upper low will bring a good chance for showers and storms to the area this weekend; otherwise, tranquil weather will prevail as forecast temperatures start to reflect more autumnal readings with highs mostly in the 70s. Line of convection along a slowly lifting warm front will continue to plague the terminals for the first 6 hours of the forecast cycle.
A shallow cold front wedges its way into far NE OK after 00Z, with MVFR cigs oozing into KBVO toward the end of the period. Ongoing VFR conditions will continue with influence from the approaching cold front not expected into NE OK terminals until beyond this fcst period. /Issued 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ Another warm afternoon in progress across the forecast area, with another warm, but slightly cooler day expected tomorrow ahead of the much discussed cold front. The upper trough quickly wraps up into a strong circulation over the Rocky Mountain region overnight Tuesday and Wednesday- which supports less of a punch of colder air impacting eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
As expected clouds did clear out, but there are some high cirrus drifting in that should keep temperatures in check this morning, but still have a few sites reporting sub-freezing temps like Crane Lake and Ely. Wednesday should be a shade warmer as the air mass moderates without reinforcing cold.
956 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Winds will decrease overnight as the cold front exits the region. The cooler temperatures will persist through Tuesday with patchy frost possible in the sheltered northern valleys. The other issue that should not be ignored is the potential for some frost overnight into early Tuesday over the sheltered valleys of northeast WA, the north and central ID Panhandle and even possibly the higher Palouse.
Otherwise, broad ridging and anticyclonic flow across the Southeast will keep overall rain chances quite low for Central AL with temperatures rising into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. With mostly clear skies and dry air hanging around, evening temperatures should cool rather effectively with overnight lows forecast in the low 60s in northern valleys to the low 70s closer to the Alabama River and Black Belt region. Abundant sunshine and a lingering high pressure footprint leads to expected afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
352 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Going to feel like summer again this week with large ridge of high pressure planted over the Eastern U. Large ridge of high pressure will be set up over the region through the period. Ridging aloft builds in today with upper level heights rise, however, can't rule out an afternoon shower/thunderstorms around peak heating, especially within the vicinity of cold frontal forcing from the Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley.
1033 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Cloud cover and rain will continue to slide south through this evening and overnight, as a large upper trough moves south and pieces of vorticity provide forcing for rain. Tuesday will be a fairly dreary day across the region with plenty of cloud cover thanks to the upper trough continuing to dig to the south. Upper level low becomes cut off from the overall flow by late Tuesday, spinning for a few days in the Four Corners region of the southwestern US.
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 As of 08Z Tuesday morning, the well-advertised cold front was slowly progressing across the forecast area and currently stretched across southern portions of Coffey and Anderson counties. Temperatures by afternoon will fall into the upper 40s across north-central KS to the lower 60s across far east-central KS.
155 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 A front will stall just north of Pennsylvania over the next two days, as a strong upper level ridge expands westward into the Mid Atlantic region.
436 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 A front will remain stalled just north of Pennsylvania over the next two days, as a strong upper level ridge expands westward into the Mid Atlantic region.
(issued 120 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016) Current surface map shows the cold front sitting near the I-59 corridor.
930 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 The front that was across our area today has pushed south as high pressure builds in from the north. and several locations are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than forecast.
The high country convection will continue to die off with loss of daytime heating and instability, so generally expect clearing skies overnight. Scattered showers and isolated t-storms have stayed over the high terrain this afternoon due in large part to light southeast transport winds. In the high country. the upper low and its bundle of moisture and weakening large scale ascent continue to pass south of Colorado. This should result in gradual clearing overnight over the plains and later over the high country. High Temperatures on the plains in the low to mid 70s back to near average for mid May. Shower and t-storm chances lower tomorrow with scattered pops in the high country by afternoon due in large part to strong daytime heating.
/Issued 458 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/ For tonight, an upper level low pressure system currently moving through eastern Arizona and western New Mexico will continue a slow east northeast movement across west Texas through Thursday, albeit weakening into an open wave by the time it moves over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Thursday.
930 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2016 An upper level low pressure system centered off central B.
Adjusted temps cooler this eve for northern areas to match current obs.
646 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Closed upper low over four corners as seen in WV imagery. Closed low over the Great Lakes with trough back into central plains. Ridging across the Dakotas and Pacific Northwest with an intense short wave between over Lake Winnipeg as seen in visible. Quasi Block with H5 ridge from central plains into Hudson Bay and closed low over the four corners.
913 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Update After one more chilly night, with frost and even some freezing temperatures, we will see warmer days and nights ahead.
912 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 After showers exit tonight, drier and warmer weather is forecast for Thursday.
927 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Showers will decrease across the state this evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
548 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2016 Precipitable water values 130 to 150 percent of normal, weak steering flow aloft and weak instability contributing to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the higher terrain mainly from the Tavaputs to the Flat Tops and south. Best coverage is over the San Juan Mtns, closer to the better moisture and cyclonic circulation associated with the upper level low over central Arizona. Expect Thursday to be several degrees warmer than today.
This low cloud cover will likely keep much of the area fog free as North/Northwest Winds of 5-10 MPH gradually diminish this evening. However, where the lows clouds are scattered/broken over northeast AL, anticipating the possibility of patchy fog developing and have added that into the forecast for that area. 77 (issued 634 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016) For 00Z TAFs: Although a cold front has moved south of the region, post frontal clouds have resulted in MVFR conditions near and NW of a Skyline, to Huntsville and Haleyville line.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/ The main upper trough will be moving across our area late tonight through Thursday night, which will result in increasing rain chances. Once this system clears the area, warmer and drier weather will return for the weekend, with temperatures warming back to near the seasonal normals.
701 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Showers will decrease across the state this evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
1035 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2016 Precipitable water values 130 to 150 percent of normal, weak steering flow aloft and weak instability contributing to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the higher terrain mainly from the Tavaputs to the Flat Tops and south. Best coverage is over the San Juan Mtns, closer to the better moisture and cyclonic circulation associated with the upper level low over central Arizona. Expect Thursday to be several degrees warmer than today.
635 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Lightning strikes clutter the Four Corners region this evening due to the presence of an upper trough currently draped over the area. A series of disturbances ejecting eastward from the trough have brought occasional periods of showers across North and Central Texas. Precipitation will be on the increase overnight as the main upper trough propagates eastward into Texas.
850 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will pass through the region tonight. The low-level front which is responsible for driving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening is slowing down but getting close to the WA/ID border. What is remarkable is that this will not be convective precipitation but rather driven but the strong cold front which is showing frontogenetical forcing values off the chart within the 850-700mb layer. /sb 00Z TAFS: A cold front is currently pushing in Ern WA with scattered showers and isolated t-storms developing along a line from Republic to Moses Lake.
222 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Scattered showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. The dominant feature of the mid-week will remain the pinwheeling closed low pressure system centered near James Bay Canada.
The other factor will be a mid-level trough to help push the boundary further south.
236 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Northwesterly flow aloft will allow a weak cold front to sink southward to near Interstate 70 toward early this evening, with the front then moving slowly southward through south- central/southeastern Kansas overnight. Weak high pressure will build into the missouri valley Tuesday, allowing for light winds, slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
with nearly vertically stacked low pressure still centered over the srn tip of James Bay. Sharp upper level trough has reached Green Bay. Freezing levels are low (7 kft). With low freezing levels and some speed shear. with the passage of the upper trough delayed until late tonight. Expect a cool night with ongoing CAA in the wake of the cold front.
401 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening.
Cooler temperatures can be expected through the middle of the week. Aside from the wind threat in any thunderstorms, generally gusty winds are expected due to the aforementioned lapse rates until the cold front passes tonight.
323 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front over northeast Missouri/west central Illinois will continue moving south this evening. Once the front goes through expect dry weather and cooler temperatures for Tuesday.
There should be just enough mean layer/surface based CAPE, with the dry air in the low levels, to bring some gusty winds with any showers or storms that occur. Should see scattered clouds linger tonight into Tuesday, with the close proximity of the 500 mb trough.
but may end up being similar to slightly cooler across the mountains due to an earlier onset of thunderstorms.
Another left over outflow boundary/warm front extended along Interstate 70. Very moist airmass was noted across much of the area with dew points in the low to mid 70s. 18Z Topeka sounding shows steeps lapse rates, Mlcape of 1200 J/kg and good turning in the lower levels with storm relative helicity of 330 m2s2.
318 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cooler air moving into the area behind a cold front will result in lows in the mid 50s tonight.
After another slightly cooler than average night again tonight.
Ridge of high pressure to our west will weaken as it moves over NM through Tuesday.
The upper level ridge over the region will will continue to weaken and shift east tonight and Tuesday, bringing increasing night and morning low clouds and cooler temperatures.
/Issued 411 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016/ An active northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected across the Panhandles fore the next few days as an upper ridge builds over the southwestern states northeastward across the four corners region into the central Rockies.
258 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 A strong 547 dm 500 mb low over east central Ontario had a vigorous upper level trof over the western Great Lakes per water vapor loop. A surface cold front extended from western lower MI through central IL near I-72. Pattern will begin to shift this week with the trough moving to the east as a ridge builds in the west. This will bring much warmer air into the area for the last part of the week and into the weekend, and push any frontal system north away from the area.
338 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Weak convection has formed over portions of northeast Kansas along a cold front. Additional activity may develop along or just behind the cold front as it pushes south. A quiet period of weather will follow into the weekend as a large upper ridge gradually builds into the Plains. The coolest day of the week is expected on Tuesday as weak cold air advection moves in behind the cold front.
105 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Temperatures will likely recover into the upper 70s and low 80s today in advance of an upper level trough that may generate scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by this afternoon.
120 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Temperatures will likely recover into the upper 70s and low 80s today in advance of an upper level trough that may generate scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by this afternoon.
317 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will move across the region on Tuesday allowing for showers and thunderstorms, with a few possibly being severe.
Upper ridge remains in place and will continue to provide dry and stable conditions. The exception being southwest Montana where an upper low centered over southern Idaho continues to bring some moisture across the area and where an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon. High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
An upper trough will advance toward the region on Tuesday bringing with it increasing high cloud cover and the potential for additional shower activity over the interior mountains.
430 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front remains over the Upstate of South Carolina with Tropical Storm Colin moving northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will cross the area late tonight into Tuesday morning with TS Colin accelerating away from the area Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend. A cold front pushes through the forecast area Tuesday evening but with limited moisture available precipitation is not expected.
210 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows a rex block pattern across the western conus with an upper high over northeast Washington state near Yakima, and a corresponding upper low pressure centered and spinning near Elko, Nevada. Mid to upper level ridging takes control tonight through Tuesday with a clear sky comfortable temperatures. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs Tuesday warming into the lower 80s west and 70s elsewhere.
Surface obs indicate a cold front approaching the Ohio River from the north, and this front will move across the cwa tonight and usher in a few days of cooler and much drier air.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The elongated 500MB low pressure along the TX Coast will continue to weaken as it gets cut off the main upper flow and mi level ridge builds across TX. Tue night low's will be pleasant once again into the low 70s.
Riding the northwest flow aloft, a weak cold front will move through the state tonight into Tuesday.
249 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 KBYX detects numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Lower Keys, as well as over nearshore and offshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys.
An upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes will push a weak cold front into western Kansas late this afternoon and then to the KS/OK border by Tuesday morning.
An upper level low was present over southern Idaho and slowly drifting east and weakening. For southern Montana, an upper level ridge axis was observed just west of the region and is supporting clear skies and beautiful weather. Tonight, the ridge axis continues to push east and mid-level moisture will increase and allow for a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon.
553 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front over northeast Missouri/west central Illinois will continue moving south this evening. Once the front goes through expect dry weather and cooler temperatures for Tuesday.
An upper level trough reaches the Utah- Colorado border on Tuesday afternoon bringing some cloud cover to the region. Fairly dry air in this sector of the passing trough will keep conditions eventful except for a few shallow isolated showers or thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
236 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Reinforcing cold fronts through Tuesday night.
626 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Aviation A cold front and upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening. A few light rain showers may linger overnight and redevelop on Tuesday before high pressure builds in to bring fair weather for midweek.
352 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
A weak upper low centered over Nevada will continue to move slowly east across Utah through Tuesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen once again across the Great Basin midweek.
Upstream, over the Great Lakes, a cold front will begin to slide south heading into tonight.
602 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening.
248 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through the short term period as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the western CONUS. A weak backdoor front associated with this feature is helping to keep high temperatures down in the low 70s to low 80s for most areas today. Tuesday will continue mostly dry and warmer as ridge moves further east. with slightly cooler temperatures further east towards central South Dakota as surface front retreats to the east. Dew points should approach at least the low-50s which will help destabilize the area with day time heating.