Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights mean layer ridging across the Gulf of Mexico, bordered by two upper level lows, one near the Yucatan and the other east of the Bahamas. Low level ridging stretches west across Florida, terminating in a small anticyclone centered over the Central Gulf of Mexico. This afternoon's weather has been warm, humid, and sunny along the Florida Keys with minimal breeze and highs in the lower 90s. A cloud line has struggled across the Lower Keys, and no locations have measured rainfall. Low level ridging will straddle Florida for the next several days. This split-ridge pattern will feature expanding and contracting col-regions, opportunities for afternoon cloud lines, light breezes, meager radiational cooling at night, and warm, humid, stagnant afternoons.
1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A warm front south Arkansas will move across the area today. High pressure will build over the area tonight and Friday. Destabilization and the proximity of a mid/upper low over TX will encourage scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon. This low will slowly retrograde today and tomorrow as it weakens in the presence of a building upper ridge across the western states. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low 70s overnight. Increasing heights associated with the building ridge will encourage temperatures to climb to around average for Friday, where readings in the 90s for highs and 70s for lows will be commonplace.
Expect to experience periods of gusty westerly winds up to 20-25 mph, and up to 35 mph in the higher terrain.
213 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Upper low is moving westward across SW Texas this afternoon via WV imagery. Some forcing with upper low and modest instability likely to produce a few showers/thunderstorms over SE Mexico and a few of those could develop over the extreme SW South Plains. James A slightly drier trend to the forecast through the weekend and slightly warmer trend for the latter parts are the themes this afternoon. The upper low moving across the Big Bend today will shift to the west to the desert southwest this weekend. In its wake the western end Bermuda high located over the Gulf of Mexico will push westward, eventually bridging to the upper high centered over the Rockies.
331 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 West to northwest flow aloft continues across the region as upper level high pressure remains anchored across the Four Corners region.
Behind it, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western mountains mid afternoon and move northeast in association with a jet-max and surface cold front. Friday will be sunny, dry and a few degrees cooler behind the overnight cold front.
At the upper levels, a ridge extends from the northern plains into the Canadian prairie provinces and a trough is over the northeast US. Another dry day ahead for Friday as the area remains under control of high pressure to the north. The high currently over southern Michigan will shift to the east into New England by late Friday night. While skies overall will remain somewhat hazy, the only place that currently has haze in the grids on Friday is the far SW counties where models have the highest near surface smoke concentrations. It will be a bit warmer than today, with afternoon high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
1113 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Similar monsoonal pattern as the past few days continues with Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop early this afternoon over the higher terrain in southeast Wyoming.
(This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners this afternoon, and the westward-moving trough over the Permian Basin.
1223 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week.
225 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. The length of the break between the low and high cloud swap will help determine the min temps tonight and if/how extensive any fog will be.
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A weak cold front will southern NC will drift slowly south tonight, and will dissipate south of the area on Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Friday through the weekend. Surface cold front has temporarily hung up across the far SE counties. Noticeably less humid air has advected into the area in the wake of the front, per sfc dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Sandwiched between the expansive heat ridge centered over the western and central US and an upper trough over the NE US, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Carolinas. Mid to upper level ridge over southern Plains will extend over the Southeast during the weekend.
351 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 The heat and humidity has overlapped enough for some 100 F plus heat index readings this afternoon across the CWA, as the upper-level ridge remains in place. As it does so, it's associated upper trough will increasingly infringe on and temporarily flatten the Northern Plains' upper-level ridge. High pressure will be building into the region for the beginning of the weekend in the wake of an eastward departing frontal boundary.
Cloudiness will return overnight and combined with the higher moisture amounts, will result in low temperatures to be slightly higher than last night. Mid to upper low pressure will remain over Northwest TX while high pressure builds across MS and eastern TX, resulting in lower rain chances Friday.
213 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Upper low is moving westward across SW Texas this afternoon via WV imagery. Some forcing with upper low and modest instability likely to produce a few showers/thunderstorms over SE New Mexico and a few of those could develop over the extreme SW South Plains. James A slightly drier trend to the forecast through the weekend and slightly warmer trend for the latter parts are the themes this afternoon. The upper low moving across the Big Bend today will shift to the west to the desert southwest this weekend. In its wake the western end Bermuda high located over the Gulf of Mexico will push westward, eventually bridging to the upper high centered over the Rockies.
251 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a cutoff upper level low drifting into the desert southwest as the potent mid/upper level ridge that made headlines for bringing heat to the western CONUS slowly slides eastward into the central plains.
411 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 An upper level trough will slowly exit to the west on Friday.
The aforementioned upper low will continue northwestward overnight and through tomorrow. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight should be in the low 70s, while tomorrow's highs will reach the mid 90s.
110 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 (Today and tonight) A low pressure system will remain across this portion of Texas through today.
225 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 The center of high pressure aloft over the Four Corners today and an upper level closed low over west TX will both shift slowly northwest through Friday. The higher than normal precipitable water over the region with values as high as 1.
a clear sky is expected tonight with low temperatures in the low to upper 60s and south winds of 5 to 15 mph. the forecast area will be under the influence of an elongated upper level ridge stretching from Utah east into Kansas through the southern plains. Moisture currently along the Colorado rockies is expected to shift slowly east, approaching western Yuma and Kit Carson counties in the afternoon ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s to 100 degrees with low temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s.
1118 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to the NW.
In the upper levels, weak ridging is in place and this continues to provide a sinking vertical flow with smoke and haze trapped aloft. The weak anti cyclonic flow will exist with weak sw- ne ridging still in place. Only chance of convection with be in the late afternoon across the southwestern areas where just enough moisture may undercut the weak ridge.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico will edge westward into the coastal sections of the CWA tonight and continue to build into south Texas Friday as the 500mb low across west-central Texas begins to move northwest Friday.
1014 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 High pressure near the Four Corners will get suppressed southward as a trough moves eastward along the Canadian border today.
306 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Mostly quiet weather continues as high pressure remains centered over southern Missouri.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Key Points: -Heat and humidity settle across the area -Mainly dry with a few small windows for precipitation Details: A few light rain showers across northwest Iowa early this morning moved across north-central Iowa through the early afternoon, feeding off weak lift on the nose of the thermal ridge as it shifts east. By Friday the thermal ridge axis will pass across the area, pushing temperatures here into the low 90s. The temperature forecast Friday is not straightforward, however, as the thermal ridge will battle increased smoke across the region.
Coverage and intensity of storms should diminish in the evening hours with loss of daytime heating and with the mid-upper level low continuing to move W-NW out of South TX. Conditions should remain dry through the rest of the period as high pressure settles in.
1139 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Mean western CONUS ridge will flatten per fast impulse laden flow across the northern tier. Hot weather will also persist through the period as the upper ridge re-builds north and east. All activity will hinge on the location of the expected secondary trough Friday afternoon, which will be the main area of focus for convective development.
Otherwise, the convection will continue to move out of the area this evening with drier air filtering in as high pressure settles over the region. Coverage and intensity of storms should diminish in the evening hours with loss of daytime heating and with the mid-upper level low continuing to move W-NW out of South TX. Conditions should remain dry through the rest of the period as high pressure settles in.
740 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 An upper level trough will slowly exit to the west on Friday.
833 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A weak cold front across southern NC will drift slowly south tonight, and will dissipate south of the area on Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Friday through the weekend. Surface cold front has temporarily hung up across the far SE counties. Noticeably less humid air has advected into the area in the wake of the front, per sfc dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Sandwiched between the expansive heat ridge centered over the western and central US and an upper trough over the NE US, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Carolinas. Mid to upper level ridge over southern Plains will extend over the Southeast during the weekend.
1000 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A weak cold front across southern NC will drift slowly south tonight, and will dissipate south of the area on Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Friday through the weekend. While post-frontal, drier air in the low levels will continue to advect swwd across cntl NC tonight, the models suggest weak moisture convergence may result at the leading edge of slightly stronger nely flow extending across cntl VA/NC. Sandwiched between the expansive heat ridge centered over the western and central US and an upper trough over the NE US, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Carolinas. Mid to upper level ridge over southern Plains will extend over the Southeast during the weekend.
631 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 West to northwest flow aloft continues across the region as upper level high pressure remains anchored across the Four Corners region.
Thermal ridging will build eastward across Minnesota throughout the day Friday while dew points remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
1048 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Currently - A ridge axis extending from the North Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico is rather weak around Florida and the Bahamas. As a result, winds are light and quite varying with a col located just gulf side of the Lower and Middle Keys. There is a decent amount of CAPE and a number of thunderstorms have been able to pulse along the cloud line north and northwest of the Lower Keys and within activity that migrated off of southwestern South Florida. More variability is expected in the Lower Keys. A ridge across Florida will be split near Florida and the Bahamas, resulting in light breezes on Keys waters.
Skies will defintely look hazy once again but dont feel this should impact high temps much /maybe a degree or so/ with highs still forecast to reach the lower 90s in most locales. /Tonight through Thursday/ Key Points: -Heat and humidity settle across the area -Mainly dry with a few small windows for precipitation Details: A few light rain showers across northwest Iowa early this morning moved across north-central Iowa through the early afternoon, feeding off weak lift on the nose of the thermal ridge as it shifts east. By Friday the thermal ridge axis will pass across the area, pushing temperatures here into the low 90s. The temperature forecast Friday is not straightforward, however, as the thermal ridge will battle increased smoke across the region.
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Upper-level ridge to continue to build across the region allowing for stable conditions through the end of the terminal forecast period ending 24/00Z. /Tonight and Tomorrow/ Upper level ridging in place over the Southern Plains edging into the forecast region. Mainly dry conditions will prevail as mid/upper ridging builds in across the region and increasing mid level temps put a lid on convective development. Precip will primarily be limited to isolated diurnal convection over parts of southeast AR and northeast LA, which may be just far enough east on the periphery of the ridge and where somewhat greater deep layer moisture will exist.
734 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 High pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico extends across the Florida peninsula.
Mid level ridging and high pressure will build slowly over the area from the Gulf during the period. /issued 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico will edge westward into the coastal sections of the CWA tonight and continue to build into south Texas Friday as the 500mb low across west-central Texas begins to move northwest Friday.
Expecting stable conditions through tonight with temperatures forecast to fall into the lower to mid 70s. /issued 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/ Upper-level ridge to continue to build across the region allowing for stable conditions through the end of the terminal forecast period ending 24/00Z. /Tonight and Tomorrow/ Upper level ridging in place over the Southern Plains edging into the forecast region. Mainly dry conditions will prevail as mid/upper ridging builds in across the region and increasing mid level temps put a lid on convective development. Precip will primarily be limited to isolated diurnal convection over parts of southeast AR and northeast LA, which may be just far enough east on the periphery of the ridge and where somewhat greater deep layer moisture will exist.
An upper trough positioned over the NERN PAC and PACNW is forecast to exit the region, and will be followed by a transition to quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday through the weekend.
The heat and humidity has overlapped enough for some 100 F plus heat index readings this afternoon across the CWA, as the upper-level ridge remains in place. As it does so, it's associated upper trough will increasingly infringe on and temporarily flatten the Northern Plains' upper-level ridge. High pressure will be building into the region for the beginning of the weekend in the wake of an eastward departing frontal boundary.
The storms that did develop this afternoon and early evening formed along a cold front that has since moved into eastern Montana. Increasing westerly winds associated with an eastward advancing cold front will continue through this evening for areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
/issued 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/ Upper low is moving westward across SW Texas this afternoon via WV imagery. Some forcing with upper low and modest instability likely to produce a few showers/thunderstorms over SE New Mexico and a few of those could develop over the extreme SW South Plains. James A slightly drier trend to the forecast through the weekend and slightly warmer trend for the latter parts are the themes this afternoon. The upper low moving across the Big Bend today will shift to the west to the desert southwest this weekend. In its wake the western end Bermuda high located over the Gulf of Mexico will push westward, eventually bridging to the upper high centered over the Rockies.
The cloud cover may max out at 60-70 percent late tonight/early friday, but should only impact the temp drop by about a few deg F, since the subsidence associated with the aforementioned high pressure area closer to us, and the presence of a deep layer of dry air will chew up the clouds somewhat. Min temps will slip to near or just under 50F across the perennial cold spots across the north, while the larger Metro Areas throughout the Lower Susq valley settle around the 60 F mark.
528 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. The length of the break between the low and high cloud swap will help determine the min temps tonight and if/how extensive any fog will be.
Mostly quiet weather continues as high pressure remains centered over southern Missouri.
730 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. The length of the break between the low and high cloud swap will help determine the min temps tonight and if/how extensive any fog will be.
603 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a cutoff upper level low drifting into the desert southwest as the potent mid/upper level ridge that made headlines for bringing heat to the western CONUS slowly slides eastward into the central plains.
Haze will linger through the night as the low-level diurnal thermal inversion continues to strengthen. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 93 71 92 73 / 0 20 0 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 92 70 93 72 / 0 10 0 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 91 69 92 71 / 0 10 0 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 90 65 91 68 / 0 10 0 30 10.
916 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 An area of showers and thunderstorms remains over the northwestern part of the CWA, but expect it to begin to dissipate as the low level jet over the area weakens. The heat and humidity has overlapped enough for some 100 F plus heat index readings this afternoon across the CWA, as the upper-level ridge remains in place. As it does so, it's associated upper trough will increasingly infringe on and temporarily flatten the Northern Plains' upper-level ridge. High pressure will be building into the region for the beginning of the weekend in the wake of an eastward departing frontal boundary.
Drier conditions should continue to settle into the region tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Otherwise, the convection will continue to move out of the area this evening with drier air filtering in as high pressure settles over the region. Coverage and intensity of storms should diminish in the evening hours with loss of daytime heating and with the mid-upper level low continuing to move W-NW out of South TX. Conditions should remain dry through the rest of the period as high pressure settles in.
A cold front pushes through later in the afternoon into the evening. The lower CAPE values suggests debris clouds from the morning convective system may limit the overall severe weather risk.
239 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure continues to hold over the area into the weekend.
This will give way to a muggy Friday night/early Saturday morning, with overnight lows in the low-70s and mostly clear skies. Daily highs this weekend are expected to range from the low to mid-90s areawide.
Mostly quiet weather continues as high pressure remains centered over southern Missouri. High temperatures Friday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, climbing a few degrees higher on Saturday into the lower 90s at most locations. Dew point temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s by Friday afternoon across southeast Missouri. The combination of heat and humidity will create apparent temperatures in the lower 100s Saturday afternoon.
Clear and dry night tonight as passage of an upper trough brings more westerly flow aloft. A dry cold frontal passage this evening will turn the upper level flow the the west which should help remove the smoke. The upper level ridge will begin to rebuild northward on Saturday with temperatures warming about 3-5 degrees from Friday's high.
414 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 High pressure will maintain primarily dry and seasonal weather today. The high will gradually shift to off the southeast coast this weekend while a front moves in from the northwest.
(Today and tonight) A mid-level ridge will retrograde towards the west today and in doing so, an upstream mid-level trough will shift northward. Most of the area will experience heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, with some locations across south central OK getting into the low 100s. There is the slight chance for some isolated showers and storms in south central OK later in the afternoon/evening, where the higher dewpoints will reside. Tomorrow night lows will only get down into the low to mid 70s across the area.
Then an upper ridge gradually builds north into Saturday bringing warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
The upper low continues to retrograde westward through the day, allowing a backdoor front to try to work into the northeast. This should shift the better coverage to the southwest, so concentrated the higher chances across the southwest. The ridge really begins to take hold of the area on Saturday and will influence the are to more of the summer weather pattern with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with the hit and miss, heat of the day convection.
457 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 A weak high pressure system extending from the surface to the mid- levels currently sits over the northern Gulf, roughly 250 miles south of LIX.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure will gradually become the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA as it replaces closed 500 mb low pressure retrograding towards the Desert Southwest. The mid-level ridge will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, a welcome respite from the past few days of flooding rainfall.
Aloft, N/NWly flow continues to dominate as we remain situated along the eastern periphery of expansive central CONUS ridge. Overnight lows will once again dip into the lower to mid 60s for most. Pattern will be dominated by hot upper ridging over the Rockies and eventually the Plains, and weakening trofiness over the eastern CONUS.
As of 115 am: Very little change is expected over the next 24 hours as we remain under a deep NW flow aloft, which will continue to support high pressure moving past across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Expecting stable conditions through tonight with temperatures forecast to fall into the lower to mid 70s.