Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging influences should keep the remainder of the mid state dry today, but these upper level ridging influences will not last for long. With an evolution from surface ridging influences centered across the southern Appalachians to a surface Bermuda high pressure pattern setting up across the mid state by late this afternoon, and with progressive swly flow developing per model solution consensus in reaction to deep troughing developing across the western U. But otherwise, there is no real focusing mechanisms in place, no significant sfc fronts, significant upper level troughing, etc. Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees above normal, with lows mostly in the low to mid 60s and highs averaging in the mid 80s.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern Saskatchewan with a trough in the northern rockies, a closed low along the mid atlantic seaboard and a 500 mb ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The pattern will be dominated by a large trough across the west half of the U. , and a large ridge across the east half of the U. Upper MI will be near the top of the ridge, so any energy will produce showers and some thunderstorms. The ECMWF and NAM favor a sharper eastern ridge, bringing the main precip to the NW CWA and northern MN.
A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. MOS looks to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be warmer than MOS.
141 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will gradually move off the Southeast coast by late today.
339 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 aloft - A ridge reached from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes while a low over the NJ/NY coastal waters troughed down to the Bahamas. surface - high pressure sprawled from the south- central Appalachians. The upper ridge pivots from the Gulf to the eastern seaboard and flattens as the NJ/NY upper low moves into the Canadian Maritimes as a trough. leaving troughiness over the Bahamas. The Appalachian high pressure tracks out over the western Atlantic while elongating southwestward. For Wed the upper ridge moving toward the eastern seaboard and the trough east of FL will set up a more northerly flow aloft and push the frontal boundary and it/s moisture to the south.
Instability stays on the low end so overall severe storm threat appears to be low. Nonetheless, precip chances for tonight are on the high end for many areas. With the warm front pushing north of the area on Wednesday, dewpoints within the warm sector increase to around 60 degrees over the CWA.
152 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday, before shower chances return Wednesday night. Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through most of Wednesday. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge, most of Wednesday should remain dry.
632 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Hydro High pressure will slip away from the region today but should provide one more dry day. Actually the sfc front weakens overhead and becomes rather ill-defined, then begins to rebound north as a warm front on Wednesday. However it's unclear if the warm front will still be in our area or will have lifted into nrn lower mi.
230 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through Wednesday night.
Water vapor imagery and 13/00Z upper-air plots show a low pressure system over north central California and diving south. Still enough lingering moisture around along with enhancement from this low to keep isolated to scattered type POPs in the forecast for this afternoon. By Wednesday the low will have lifted to the northeast into the northern Rockies with the associated trough axis extending into the Great Basin and south central California.
A large but weak upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the southeast states through tonight.
551 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Remnants of the previous upper level low pressure system over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Four State Region over the next couple of days. Another upper level disturbance that was moving across West Texas in Southwest flow between a closed upper low pressure system over California and the upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast States and extention West into the forecast area, will also contribute to convection chances across Northern sections.
Our CWA will remain on the northern fringes of an upper ridge today and tonight.
1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will continue to build over the forecast area tonight. However current temperatures are already in the lower/mid 40s across southern Saskatchewan so not too much of a stretch to get 10 degree diurnal fall by morning. Currently, west-southwest/cyclonic flow aloft as a long wave trough moves slowly east across the region. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over far southeast Alberta/southwest Saskatchewan moving slowly east-southeast into the Northern High Plains. High pressure moves over the entire state for Tuesday.
/issued 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Broad high pressure will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern over region. a weak upper level low continues to meander across the Louisiana coastline and is expected to slowly drift south over the open Gulf water before generally filling in and dissipating. and warmer than normal lows.
435 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
Thesestorms have developed along a cold front that is slowly working itsway southward. The higher terrain across southeastOklahoma and western Arkansas could also see some scattered showersand thunderstorms develop this afternoon as higher dewpoints nudgethere way in and a slight wave lifts north out of Texas. The upper level trough digging into the Great Basin today will liftinto the intermountain west and then the Northern Plains byThursday.
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will drift east while a cold front moves into the region late tonight and Wednesday. Highs today will reach the lower 80s and lows tonight will remain in the 60s.
With the low pressure trof exiting the area and pressure aloft building again, most precipitation has also moved out of the area. Upper level trough continues to dig south into the northern Great Basin tonight with deformation axis setting up to bisect MT from SW to NE. To the north, expect clearing skies tonight, and with cool airmass in place minimum temps will likely reach frost/freezing points across much of north-central MT for the first time this season.
A strong upper trough over south central Canada will move east to north of lake Superior this evening, and north of lake Huron late tonight. A band of higher dewpoints in the mid 60s are also expected ahead of the surface cold front that will not exit the southeast until this afternoon. However winds become northeast off lake Michigan in low levels increasing the low level moisture and possible light showers.
A weather system will bring widespread gusty winds and much cooler temperatures to the region today.
642 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the Florida area through much of the week. Moisture will remain high through tonight because of the combination of the diffuse front in the forecast area plus the easterly flow between the pressure ridge off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure over Florida. The high moisture and nocturnal cooling will promote areas of fog during the early morning hours. Scattered coverage was also supported by the high-resolution models.
439 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 A cold front continues to make slow southward progress and as of 3 am was just pushing into the northwestern Texas Panhandle into the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle.
We may see a period of time that is precipitation free for a few hours before chances increase again toward this evening, especially along the cold front that will be situated just to the south of the area in northern Oklahoma. Through the mid to latter part of the week, an upper level low pressure system will track out of the Great Basin into the northern Plains while weakly cyclonic southwesterly flow persists over the central Plains.
423 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow dry weather to continue until a front approaches on Wednesday. With winds shifting to the southwest, daytime highs should run about five degrees warmer than yesterday. Although the cold front will pass through the region Wednesday, much of the lift will remain to the northeast across New York and England.
235 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will continue to drift east and allow a cold front to move into the region tonight into Wednesday. No sensible weather issues through Tuesday with high pressure continuing to move east.
138 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will pass offshore tonight into Tuesday night. A cold front will then approach on Wednesday and move through Wednesday night, followed high pressure through the end of the week.
225 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be south of our region today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Wednesday.
Regardless of exact trajectory, strong moisture convergence and synoptic scale ascent will impact CWA today into tonight east of inverted trough axis.
340 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The base of an upper trough is helping to keep dry air entrainment over the western half of the gulf. The eastern half is where the trough jet lifts out of the gulf and provides quite a bit of diffluent flow helping to gently evacuate the column underneath.
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 Quiet weather expected today with high pressure just off the mid- Atlantic coast and a southwest flow ushering in warmer temperatures.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will maintain sunny and dry conditions for the remainder of this week. Daytime temperatures will be a little warmer than normal for mid September. The ridge will weaken enough late this week to allow a weak weather system to reach the area over the weekend. An upper level ridge remains in control over the Pacific Northwest for much of the forecast period.
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 A cold front typical for mid September with 40s on the cool side, and 60s on the warm side is now splitting Iowa from west to east. The northwest is going to be much cooler, and should see clouds and rain to start the day, and I feel highs in the upper 60s are on target there. The southeast should see sun, a sustained south wind, and should recover to the lower 80s. Otherwise, high pressure will be building into the area for a mainly dry period.
Iowa will remain in southwest flow today as a progressive Canadian long wave trough tries to push a trailing front through the state. With the front well removed from the parent trough and persistent SW flow aloft, it will take its time pushing southeast.
211 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be off the Mid Atlantic Coast today. A weakening cold front will push southward across the region late Wednesday, followed by high pressure late in the week. Another cold front will push through sometime over the weekend, but it will only bring us back to near normal temperatures. to the upper 50s in the southern urban areas and on the ridges in that same region. Can't completely rule out a PM shower across the eastern counties based on some marginal instability noted in models, but will leave mention of rain out for now based on upper lvl ridging/warm temps aloft. Looks like the cold front moves in slower still.
High pressure remains in control across the forecast area today, bringing continued sunny skies and warm temperatures. Moist southwest flow will continue to stream across the area, and combined with some orographic lift, this will create the potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain this afternoon.
409 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be off the Mid Atlantic Coast today. A weakening cold front will push southward across the region late Wednesday, followed by high pressure late in the week. Another cold front will push through sometime over the weekend, but it will only bring us back to near normal temperatures. to the upper 50s in the southern urban areas and on the ridges in that same region. Can't completely rule out a PM shower across the eastern counties based on some marginal instability noted in models, but will leave mention of rain out for now based on upper lvl ridging/warm temps aloft. Looks like the cold front moves in slower still.
104 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Broad area of high pressure through Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday night.
204 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Broad high pressure will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern over region. a weak upper level low continues to meander across the Louisiana coastline and is expected to slowly drift south over the open Gulf water before generally filling in and dissipating. and warmer than normal lows.
1113 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 20z surface analysis had 1030mb high over southern AB which has pushed cold front will into the southern Plains. Water vapour had positively tilted trough from central Canada into the northern Rockies. Temperatures will be cold enough for some flakes of snow over northeast WY and perhaps a light coating over the highest elevations of the Black Hills. Warm ground temperatures and ground cover should preclude frost with lows staying above freezing on the Plains given expected dew points. A ridge will be over the central plains on 12z Wednesday with an upper low over the inter-mountain West. By late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening the upper low will be approaching the area and may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially to NERN WY and WRN SD, where isolated severe storms are possible.
304 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Strong high pressure ridge aloft and at surface over the Southeast and Eastern seaboard will hang tough across the Ohio Valley, likely providing dry and increasingly warmer conditions over the next 24 to 36 hours. The high(s) break down enough by Wednesday to allow a slight mainly diurnal chance of a shower or storm, as the models show some moisture embedded in a southwesterly fetch may just top the ridge and help induce some spotty qpf coverage.
Tonight Through Wednesday A warming trend will take place across much of Arkansas through mid week as high pressure drifts east of the area and easterly to southerly winds help bring in more humidity. Aloft, high pressure can be found to the southeast and a trough extends over the western US this afternoon. Embedded in the southwesterly flow between these two features is a cold front located roughly from Kansas to Minnesota. As the upper trough slowly moves east in the coming days, the surface frontal boundary will approach Arkansas from the northwest and with increased moisture at the surface will help initiate shower and thunderstorm activity over mainly western and northern areas Wednesday.
Morning lows, however, will be cold with the potential for freezing temperatures tonight and again Tuesday night across many of the cooler northern valleys of Washington and Idaho. This will make it difficult for freezing temperatures at Sandpoint to be reached and possibly Deer Park. Many of the same areas will once again cool close to or reach the freezing mark as tonight. The Central Panhandle Mtns will also see less wind and will see a better chance for freezing temperatures as well.
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The local area will remain under the influence of high pressure along the east coast today. Meanwhile a weak low pressure system will pass to the north of Lake Erie, with the associated cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday.
Ridging will then take hold again over the weekend as the wave washes out.
454 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2016 Weak ridging will remain over the state the next couple of days with periods of offshore shower activity moving onshore during the early morning hours. This is the case this morning as scattered showers forming along the northern edge of central Gulf low pressure quickly move inland and drop a couple of tenths of rain with their passage. A more wet (than not) pattern is still forecast to evolve over the coming days as mid to late week weak ridging transforms into weak troughing over the state.
320 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east of the area this morning with the cold front. Northwest winds and CAA will persist for the rest of today as high pressure advances into the northern Plains. The longer term concern is the development/movement of the upper trough late in the week and into the weekend followed by moderating temperatures.
638 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Update A cold front will track slowly southeast through the Great Lakes region today and tonight.
The upper level pattern is slowly transitioning from quasi- zonal to a more direct SW as a mid-level trough of low pressure closes off over the Great Basin. High pressure dropping down through the northern Rockies will settle across the northern High Plains Tuesday morning and then onto the eastern Dakotas by 00z Wednesday.
639 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
254 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure centered over the region will slowly move offshore today. A cold front will move across the area on Wednesday.
321 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 A cooler airmass builds in behind a cold front today and tonight, leading to the first frost of the season for some parts of northern Minnesota tonight. High pressure currently centered across the western Dakotas will build eastward today into tonight, becoming centered over central Minnesota tonight. Wednesday will be sunny and a few degrees cooler than average for mid-September as the area of high pressure builds eastward towards the upper Great Lakes.
443 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the Florida area through much of the week. Moisture will remain high through tonight because of the combination of the diffuse front in the forecast area plus the easterly flow between the pressure ridge off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure over Florida. The high moisture and nocturnal cooling will promote areas of fog during the early morning hours. Scattered coverage was also supported by the high-resolution models.
Positively tilted upper level trough from central Canada into the west coast of the U. will begin to split in the short term period with the southwest portion of the trough closing off and the northeast portion tracking across the northern plains.
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 Quiet weather expected today with high pressure just off the mid- Atlantic coast and a southwest flow ushering in warmer temperatures.
526 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow dry weather to continue until a front approaches on Wednesday. With winds shifting to the southwest, daytime highs should run about five degrees warmer than yesterday. Although the cold front will pass through the region Wednesday, much of the lift will remain to the northeast across New York and England.
Warmer temperatures will return Weds but still on the mild side.
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Broad area of high pressure through Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday night.
222 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Northern stream trough lifting ne across the northern plains, with southern periphery lsa/fgen supporting sct shra across much of the western fa. Clouds will linger across mush of the area, esp given sfc ridging and recycling/veering easterly flow. However, the central Rockies counterpart upper low will begin to drift east with reflected moist southerly flow and increasing lsa eventually supporting chances for showers and ts by late wed afternoon far western areas. Staunch se flow wed will support a warmer day.
High pressure will move offshore today. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
230 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather and warm temperatures through tonight. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Dry and cooler weather will follow the front through late week. Clear skies with high pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft has allowed temps to fall about 6 to 8 degrees over the past hour. Upper level ridge will build slightly on Tuesday as the next short wave trof moves into the western Great Lakes. Tuesday night will remain dry as surface cold front is north of Lake Ontario by 12Z Wednesday and front shows anafront characteristics. Next significant upper level short wave trough and associated cold front will push south across NY and PA Wednesday afternoon and evening.
533 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be off the Mid Atlantic Coast today.
102 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure over eastern NY State will move off the New England Coast tonight. Low pressure will track east across the central Great Lakes Tuesday night with the associated cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday.
Both the GFS and NAM have the low, after slowly moving over eastern Idaho, make a quick exit Thu morning, leaving only the Tetons and nearby mountain ranges dealing with a precipitation threat. However, the low coming in tonight will reverse the trend with its extensive cloud cover and colder air mass.
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be south of our region today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Wednesday.
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 A broad upper ridge will continue across the southeast during the period.
336 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 As the strong low pressure system consolidates over central Nevada today the jetstream will curve through the bottom of the trough over the Las Vega region and then aim due north over central Utah to Great Salt lake. Wednesday, the upper low lifts into NW Wyoming with strong SW gradient winds especially in NE Utah and NW Colorado. The associated cold front passes Wednesday evening.
The terminals that have the highest chance of seeing thunderstorms this afternoon include VLD, TLH, and ABY, although storms are also possible at ECP and DHN. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast. With increased cloud cover and rain chances, daytime temperatures will peak in the mid 80s and struggle to reach the upper 80s in a few spots, dipping into the low 70s in the early morning hours.
221 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the Florida area through much of the week. Moisture will remain high through tonight because of the combination of the diffuse front in the forecast area plus the easterly flow between the pressure ridge off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure over Florida. The high moisture and nocturnal cooling will promote areas of fog during the early morning hours. Scattered coverage was also supported by the high-resolution models.
Upper low in northern California will track northeastward through Nevada today and tonight, reaching eastern Idaho on Wednesday. The track of the low will determine the extent of the showers, and the latest model runs suggest a slight southward shift in this regard. There is also the potential for afternoon-evening thunderstorms, especially near the center of the low. Decent instability and dynamics this afternoon exist ahead of the low in northeast Nevada where some of the storms could be strong, and these storms could move through extreme southern Twin Falls County based on the latest forecast track. Temperatures will be cooler near the low due to the clouds and showers, basically to the south and east of Boise.