Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will continue building into the Southwest bringing slightly above average temperatures and continued dry conditions through the weekend. Short term remains quiet with a subtropical ridge building into the Southwest. Wind speeds will be somewhat lower today as the approaching ridge reduces the surface pressure gradient, but the Mojave Desert and Mohave County will still be a bit breezy in favorable southwesterly surface flow.
Dry and a little warmer through the weekend with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The warming trend is not as dramatic as it would be under a stronger ridge.
Convection is possible over the higher terrain once again, however, an area of isentropic lift advecting northeast through the region through the day will bring the chance for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms across the remainder of the area. Despite heights aloft building slightly today, temperatures will be near or a couple degrees cooler than yesterday with a bit more mid level moisture and cloud cover expected. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday, generally highest across eastern portions, with lower pops west as high pressure builds over Idaho and western Montana. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday. Temperatures will start out seasonable in the extended as low level moisture is pulled northwards into the high plains.
334 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure over the central Appalachian Mountains will move little over the next twenty four hours. A cold front will move southeast toward the area Thursday.
417 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Current surface analysis places low over southeast Manitoba with ridge over the northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. unsettled pattern remains over the area with broad cyclonic flow aloft in the wake of the departing upper low.
1145 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Montana remains under the influence of wrap-around moisture from the strong upper low over south central Canada. Two low pressure systems affecting our region today, but neither is very dominant nor will bring about any serious weather. The first system is the deep closed low over southern Canada. Moisture pinwheeling around the backside of the low center is producing lines showers and thunderstorms from the Hiline south to Chouteau and Fergus counties. However, additional weak trofs moving through the flow will bring periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to the central and Hiline areas on Wed/Thur aftn.
An area of low pressure is currently moving inland across North central Mexico. /issued 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): A weak mid-upper level low continues to move inland into Mexico south of the local area. However, cloud cover moving northward on the eastern side of the low continues to erode as it approaches Deep South Texas, so no precip is expected from this feature as we remain on its "fringe". A relative weakness in the ridging stays in place over the area, however, so some high cloudiness may drift in from an upstream low over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Lows will range from the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s expected along the coast. Upper level ridging is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with very weak flow directly aloft of the forecast area. Lower level ridging centered over northeast Florida is allowing for light south/southwesterly flow for the next couple of days which will favor afternoon convection focused mostly over northern Florida, with more isolated storms further inland. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s and will dip to the mid 70s overnight.
Hot, humid, and dry conditions will continue across most of the region as upper level ridging continues to build in from the west. A slight chance of showers/t-storms are possible across our far southern counties/parishes, as models hint at isolated convection during peak day time heating along the edge of the ridge. The ridge will shift to the SW on Thursday, which will allow possible convection to move into the region from the north, as models suggest a complex of storms developing across N.
333 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging over Texas will keep the forecast area hot and dry.
Very warm and humid with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon, and these dew points will allow a warm and muggy overnight with lows mainly in the lower 70s outside of the higher elevations.
Temperatures will also be quite hot with forecast highs in the low 100s in these areas. An effective cold front is expected to be near the Oklahoma/Kansas border Thursday afternoon. The MCS/effective cold front will likely progress southeastward Thursday night as a low-level jet intensifies.
A stagnant synoptic pattern remains in place for today, with deep layer ridging remaining situated over the tri-state region.
A cold front will move through the area Thursday, continuing the chance of storms.
A weak cold front will approach the region from the north tonight. Warm air advection will increase ahead of the front as the system's upper level trough also approaches. The surface front and upper trough will continue to approach on Thursday, and with daytime heating thrown into the mix, an increase in convective precip is expected in the afternoon. The highest likelihood of showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours each day during peak heating.
A weak mid level disturbance moving west across Nrn Mexico has opened up light onshore mid level flow in a brief inverted trough pattern.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): For today and tonight, a weak inverted 500 mb trough over northeast Mexico and extended into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will gradually retrograde west deeper into Mexico while 500 mb high pressure remains centered over El Paso in the Lone Star State. The mid-level high will then resume dominance on Thursday with the trough farther west and much diminished. Overall, a continuation of the hot and dry weather will be the rule during the 36-hour forecast period despite the inverted trough.
Windy conditions across the region this afternoon as pressure gradient is tight with the low pressure across southern Canada.
Drier and warmer weather is expected on Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday: An area of low pressure off the central BC Coast will trickle down the coast toward Vancouver Island today and continue to track southeast into the northern Cascades by Thursday night. Heights will slowly build from southwest to northeast ahead of the low and the atmosphere will become increasingly stable resulting in a decreasing trend in precipitation. This mini warm-up will be short-lived as a strong and mostly dry cold front presses into the region Thursday evening and night.
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 The next short wave wrapping around the upper low is bringing an increase in rain shower activity over far northwestern North Dakota. Cold upper low creating instability showers with isolated thunderstorms across much of the north half of the region this afternoon. The isolated thunderstorms generally across the north central where limited instability is focused ahead of a weak trough. on Wednesday will watch the upper low slowly lose its influence on the region with winds much diminished over today.
Convection is possible over the higher terrain once again, however, an area of isentropic lift advecting northeast through the region through the day will bring the chance for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms across the remainder of the area. Despite heights aloft building slightly today, temperatures will be near or a couple degrees cooler than yesterday with a bit more mid level moisture and cloud cover expected. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday, generally highest across eastern portions, with lower pops west as high pressure builds over Idaho and western Montana. Temperatures will start out seasonable in the extended as low level moisture is pulled northwards into the high plains.
Minimal change was needed in the short term as models remained consistent with a late Thursday frontal passage along with a pre-frontal trough triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Improvement is expected in the wake of the front as initially drier air and near-average temperature develop over the region under broad troughing aloft.
An upper level trough across the upper midwest will shift a weakening surface cold front southeast into the lower Ohio valley region by Thursday.
Drier and warmer weather is expected on Thursday. Update: An upper level disturbance combined with mid level instability will continue to produce scattered showers this evening mainly along and north of the Highway 2 corridor which includes areas from Wilbur to Airway Heights north to the Canadian border.
135 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front slowly lifts across the area tonight through Wednesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Tursday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front pushes into the area from the north.
147 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure, and a relatively dry atmosphere, will provide fair and warm conditions today with only a slight chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. The upper ridge will weaken some late week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. Upper ridge centered to our south, with ridge axis extending north into our region, will remain in place today. The upper ridge will gradually weaken through the period as weak upper trough approaches from the west.
its conceivable to believe that initial activity this morning will be followed by a few hours of dry weather before convection develops over SE Nebraska and SW Iowa along an approaching cold front and gradually descends south upon our area by late afternoon and evening. main cold front to our north should begin to settle south over our region as high pressure builds into the Northern Plains and upper Miss Vly.
The main dominating feature to our weather will be the upper low over southern Canada which will slowly progress to the northeast. This time, guidance pivots a minor increase in humidity around the low, along with a slightly cooler airmass. NAM profiles are weakly unstable thanks to cooler mid level temperatures, so a few light diabatically driven showers could drift in from North Dakota this afternoon. We continue to remain under the influence of an upper trof, with a Q vector bullseye over ND/northeast SD/western MN during the day.
At the same time yesterday, dewpoints were in the low mid 60s across Southeast Michigan, so today will feel noticeably more humid. More coherent EML is progged to spread into the area overnight, and encroaching trough will serve to enhance a modest nocturnal LLJ response. Deep layer convergence attendant to the upper trough and surface front swings through SE Michigan during peak heating Thursday. Even so, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will still warrant at least a chc pop given the degree of dynamic forcing.
A warm and muggy night/early morning is underway throughout the Mid-South, especially along and west of the Mississippi River where temperatures are still near 80 degrees and dewpoints are in the low to mid 70's. Expect Wednesday to be drier and warmer than previous days as weak upper ridging associated with a broad ridge over the Southwest builds into the area. High pressure associated with a broad high centered over the Atlantic will be present at the surface. Low level southerly slow will pull moist air from the gulf into the region resulting in dewpoints in the low to mid 70s tomorrow.
202 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure will keep warm and moist southerly flow over the region through the week.
445 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Currently - A nearly permanent Atlantic ridge extends westward across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. A lower through mid level ridge is aligned broadly east to west across the Florida Peninsula, with nebulous flow aloft. Forecast - Light to gentle mainly east breezes will persist today through tomorrow as the ridge remains stationary. Expect highs to again reach into the lower 90s with dew points stuck in the mid to upper 70s. The mid level will weaken through the back half of the week as a mid latitude trough slides eastward through the eastern United States. Winds will trend upwards tomorrow night as the ridge to our north retreats eastward late in the week then shifts subtly northward through the weekend.
330 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front slowly lifts across the area through tonight.
Dangerous heat conditions are possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Thursday with heat index values forecast to approach 100 degrees.
Embedded pieces of vorticity were rotating around the low and clipping northwest Minnesota. A cold front will follow/be associated with the trof that will begin to affect northeast Minnesota late tonight and move to the Twin Ports by late afternoon. There will be a period of cool northwest flow in the wake of the Wednesday's cold front, with Thursday's highs only in the 60s. Showers are possible thanks to the synoptic lift generated by an upper level trough moving through the region.
The subtropical ridge centered off the southeast U. Warm and humid conditions will persist with lows ranging from the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s at the coast. Broad deep layered ridging over the forecast area will generally persist during this period but subtle day to day changes will allow for gradually decreasing mid level subsidence and increasing pwats.
112 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure will continue to influence the region's weather through Wednesday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture.
Thursday will feature additional low chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region.
It will be cooler/moister across the plains as winds turn to the southeast. the region will be between a nearly stationary low pressure system over the Pacific NW coastline and a broad upper level high over the southern plains and southern Rockys. This should be enough to initiate at least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over the high plains.
NAM/GFS deterministic predict the weak upper shear axis/trough/height weakness to dissipate by this evening along with 700-300mb q-vector divergence.
626 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure is forecast to influence our weather into Thursday night.
Tonight into Thursday precipitation chances increase from the north and west with the approach of a cold front dropping southeast out of the plains.
440 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Low to mid level flow will continue to be dominated by the sub- tropical ridge extending wwd from the Atlantic across the northern Gulf, maintaining a moist onshore flow.
342 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 The upper level low over southeastern Manitoba will drift ENE and open up over Ontario today. Trough axis will rotate through the area today. areas of showers will linger into the overnight as a weak impulse moves SE across the area on the backside of the trough.
winds will be light from the northwest, with cooler advecting into the region. The day will be cooler under a northwesterly low level flow, with highs in the mid 70s over most of southwest Minnesota, ranging up to 80 to 85 along the Missouri River.
304 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 We continue to be under the control of a strong elongated high pressure system which extends from Texas to California.
Stronger northwest flow moves into the area during the afternoon and evening as upper trough coming out of south central Canada digs into the upper Midwest.
Ambient temperatures will remain in the low 90s for maxima and mid- 70s to low 80s for minima.
229 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front will retreat NE to the Middle Atlantic coast today, and subsequently allow hot conditions --beneath and on the NRN periphery of a sub-tropical ridge over the Southeastern U.
This will be associated with another impulse in the westerly H500 flow around the northeast periphery of high pressure in place across the SW US. In the meantime, temperatures won't be tempered much with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s for much of the state.
628 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley will bring increasing moisture until a cold front crosses Thursday night.
314 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Strong upper ridge centered near ELP this morning will continue to dominate the wx for the coming week. The unseasonably hot weather will continue as upper ridge remains entrenched over the southern half of the country.
For today, an area of low pressure seen in satellite imagery rotating into western Ontario will drop a cold front into the borderland this morning. The approaching cold front will result in gusty southwest winds around 30 kt. Additional concern will be showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front this afternoon and evening.
136 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Aviation We'll have a few opportunities for rain during the next 36 hours as several waves of low pressure move across Lower Michigan. Cooler and drier air will move over Lower Michigan late in the week and the weekend. Radar is beginning to light up as a trough moves across the cwa. The next short wave arrives around 06z Thursday ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, instability showers/storms will be possible in central Minnesota this afternoon as the main upper low slowly rotates across south central Canada, and focuses isolated activity along a cool front moving southeast. A large upper low departing to the east across southern Canada late tonight will orphan a short wave over the Upper Midwest late tonight which will rotate southeastward across MN and WI Thursday and Thursday night.
Little change in the overall pattern through Wednesday as an upper level trough axis remains over the area. The combination of the upper trough along with plenty of moisture will lead to another round of scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. Temperatures will be dependent on when storms start but most areas should reach the low 90s with upper 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
1203 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated near the Canadian border over southern Manitoba and southwest Ontario. South of trough. Storms developing across central KS may dive SSE across much of the area again on Wed night as the low lvl moisture transport is progged to ramp up once again.
Temperatures are warm, with values in the lower to middle 90s. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the sub-tropical ridge can be seen to our west centered near El Paso. This ridge will be nearly stationary in the short-term as a weak trough remains to our east. Low temperatures the next two nights will be persistent in the lower to upper 70s.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure moves over the region on Thursday causing a warming and drying trend.
Low pressure may bring slightly cooler conditions and increasing winds for the weekend. Stable westerly flow aloft with high pressure over the Desert Southwest will keep eastern California and western Nevada warm to hot (slightly above average) and dry with modest afternoon and evening breezes.
Midlevel ridging continues to sink farther south and east with continued weakening and shearing of the lingering trough and leftover energy. Persistent breezy onshore flow will continue as an area of low pressure remains lee side of the Rockies across the Southern High Plains. Model soundings come in cooler at the surface during the overnight periods and with dry levels off the surface, overnight lows may again dip into the mid 70s in the low- lying areas from Alice to Victoria.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remains just west of the state this Wed. though some influence of the ridge will keep precip chances fairly low through this afternoon and even into portions of the overnight hrs. Some upper 80s my be seen in the higher terrain. the influence of the upper ridge to the west will relax some.
This high will slowly shift eastward this evening as a weak wave moves off the Rocky Mountains and into the high Plains. Areas with more cloud cover (Southeast CWA) will be in the low to mid-60s whereas areas that have less cloud cover (Northwest CWA) will be slightly cooler in the low to mid-50s. High temperatures will eventually make it into the upper 80s with locations south of I- 80 potentially seeing the low 90s.
Upper low vortex in southern Canadian plains will push the front through with a return to near to slightly below normal temperatures into this weekend. The slight risk from Storm Prediction Center is reasonable at this stage as likely any damaging winds would be at or below 70 MPH at this time along with possibly hail to near quarter size as a secondary risk due to high freezing levels with WBZ oao 12. This along with dewpoints in the lower 70s will allow for heat indices to reach into the mid to upper 90s for several hours over the southern 2/3 of the region. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Thursday/Thursday night as high pressure moves into the Midwest.
High pressure will persist through the end of the week.
551 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front slowly lifts across the area through tonight.
The thunderstorm threat will end Thursday morning with the passage of a cold front, and more comfortable temperatures and humidity levels will follow for the end of the week.
351 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure is forecast to influence our weather into Thursday night.
623 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure, and a relatively dry atmosphere, will provide fair and warm conditions today with only a slight chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. The upper ridge will weaken some late week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. Upper ridge centered to our south, with ridge axis extending north into our region, will remain in place today. The upper ridge will gradually weaken through the period as weak upper trough approaches from the west.
/issued 212 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ The main story for this forecast package will continue to be the heat that could stick around the next several days as an upper ridge remains parked over the region. At the surface, an area of low pressure extends south into west TX and looks to remain in place through the week.
343 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure is forecast to influence our weather into Thursday night.
426 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley will bring increasing moisture until a cold front crosses Thursday night.
The upper low responsible for the slightly cooler temps aloft and hence the conditions leading to better chances of sh/ts, is currently located between Natchez and McComb, Miss.
400 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday.
Models continue to indicate a cold front swinging into and across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday into Thursday night.
127 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure will rebuild over the region this week bringing a warming trend with dry conditions and lighter winds. Central California remains wedged between another transitory low pressure area moving across the Pacific Northwest and building high pressure over the New Mexico and Arizona border area.
103 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas through the week as high pressure remains southeast over the Atlantic. A deep layer of high pressure, centered southeast over the Atlantic, will continue across the region through the rest of the work week.
Zonal flow across the northern Pacific and weak low sliding south across British Columbia will combine with upper trof pushing across the Great Lakes to keep northwest flow across the Treasure State. Weak ridging ahead of the west Canadian trof will begin to pull some warmer air northward.