Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
337 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue today and through tomorrow, as upper-level low pressure spins and slowly retrogrades across the Mississippi Valley, keeping the region entrenched in northerly flow. In general, the response of the west- ward creeping upper low will be to increase cloud cover particularly across the eastern half of the CWA, and possibly allow a few very light, very isolated rain showers to develop east of Hwy 65.
High pressure will continue to settle into the region allowing for light northerly winds, less than 10 knots, today becoming more light and variable late tonight. We are owed what the next couple of days will provide us in South Texas as large scale ridging across the region continues to keep us dry but also adds in the drying northerly winds.
/Today/ Only concern through the day will be increasing low stratus as upper level closed low meanders back north out of KY and towards the IL/IN/MI/Lake Michigan borders.
A strong upper level Low Pressure system over kentucky is expected to slowly drift north across Indiana today and Saturday.
/issued 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/ A large upper level low pressure system has been nearly stationary over the Ohio River valley the past two days, after dropping south from the Great Lakes earlier this week.
500 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Little has changed over the last day or so with the 1034mb high centered in just North of Lake Superior and the upper low over IN/KY and appears to be drifting back NW. The winds will be lighter than yesterday as the high has drifted Eastward, but we will see more below average readings for today.
Deep upper low currently lifting slowly through central Kentucky, slinging just enough moisture around onto its north and west side to bring a decent batch of showers into the I-65 corridor in north central Kentucky and southern Indiana. This upper low will keep our weather chilly and unsettled well into the weekend as it takes its sweet time lifting through Kentucky today, and then through Indiana tonight and Saturday. Expect rounds of mainly scattered showers as different impulses pinwheel around this upper low through the period. POPs will be in the chance range on Saturday, with a more pronounced taper from 50% near the Ohio River to 30% along the Tennessee border, as the upper low continues its trek north of the area.
244 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016 08Z analysis places a low pressure center over southeastern Montana with a trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. High pressure was located over MN/IA resulting in a relatively tight sfc pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds across the SD part of the forecast area. A period of increased cloud cover will lead to high temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
327 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 This morning our area sits sandwiched between a large, deep upper low over the Ohio Valley and a deepening trough across the West. At the surface, high pressure is nosing in behind the weak cold front that moved through yesterday. Upper ridging begins to flatten across our region this weekend while warming occurs in the mid levels.
Expect afternoon temps to only be 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana the next few days as an upper ridge will be over the Dakotas and an upper trough currently off the BC and Pacific NW coast will digs south.
An upper level ridge will remain in place just west of the area. At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the central plains south right through west central Texas. With the ridge aloft, skies will be mainly clear.
the forecast area is in between a deep low pressure area near the Great Lakes and another off the coast of the pacific northwest. Some mid and high level cloudiness is forecast to move across from time to time with afternoon temperatures warming into the low to upper 70s. As the upper ridge axis moves into far eastern Colorado overnight the better moisture slowly moves east bringing a decrease in any precipitation potential from west to east.
Considerably drier air has moved into the region and surface dew points have fallen into the lower 50s. Dry air in place should allow for a large diurnal range in temperatures today and fcst soundings support high temperatures in the lower 80s this afternoon.
Biggest implication for us is that the low stratus looks to return from the east faster than initially indicated, with sky grids increased considerably this afternoon in western WI/eastern MN and overnight for western MN. The period begins with a stubborn upper level low lifting slowly northward across Indiana. The cloudiness should begin to breakdown from the northeast in the afternoon as drier air spreads in along with the upper level low beginning to drift east.
Large upper low appears to be centered just south of Louisville as per latest water vapor imagery. Not that much moisture underneath this low, with precipitable waters under an inch, but we do have some weak scattered showers rotating around the region. Expect the low to wobble around central Kentucky tonight. The consensus of the global models and the high-res models show the low drifting into southern Indiana during the day Friday and then into central Indiana by early Saturday. Better moisture being transported up the east side of the state should rotate around the low during this short term period, providing some enhancements to rain chances (QUADRANTS?????) Cloud cover for most of the period should keep temperatures below normal for highs and a little below normal for lows.
This recent period of warmer weather ends on Saturday afternoon as a cold front crosses the Continental Divide.
Blocking pattern will continue over the eastern U. and western Atlantic today as a strong cutoff U/L low persists over the Tennessee Valley with a strong U/L ridge over the western Atlantic. Blocking pattern will begin to break down on Saturday as the U/L low gradually fills and lifts slowly northeast toward the Great Lakes region. however the U/L ridge will remain over the western Atlantic but will begin to shift a bit east late in the day.
134 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 A cold front will push through tonight. Drier and cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend. Cold front continues pushing eastward with drier air pushing into the Midlands from the west. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley will shift to the northeast during the period. Air mass drying out during the period with dew points falling into the lower 50s. Will be monitoring tropical cyclone Matthew currently forecast to move west through the Caribbean, then turn to the north. Cold front has pushed east of the terminals although a 925mb convergence boundary extending from near CLT to CAE has resulted in scattered shower development.
308 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows center of persistent upper low centered over central Kentucky. Scattered showers continue to pivot around the low, with the most concentrated area of rain immediately to the north of the center over southern Indiana/far northern Kentucky. With upper low slowly lifting back northward and lapse rates steepening, MUCAPE values are progged to reach the 600-1000J/kg range across the east later today. Upper low will continue to lift northward into northern Indiana by Saturday evening.
A strong upper level ridge continued to reside over the central CONUS this morning, between a deep upper low over the Ohio Valley and another strong upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Models continue to show the upper ridge weakening over the next 24-36 hours. The weakening of the upper ridge and resultant increase in weak westerly flow aloft will force weak lee troughing at the surface over eastern Colorado tonight through Friday. With increasing southerly winds and weak low level warm advection, we will see temperatures into the low to mid 70s over much of the area with lower 80s returning to far southwest Kansas.
Broken to scattered cloud cover associated with the nearly stagnant upper low that continues to spin over the Ohio Valley, will move into the Central Mississippi over the next few hours. The Lower Mississippi Valley region will remain on the southwest side of the upper low today as it slowly begins to lift northward, resulting in continued NW flow aloft for the region. Temperatures today will be much like yesterday, however some slightly warmer temps will be present in the counties along and west of the MS River where upper level heights will be higher. Lows will once again fall into the lower 50s Saturday morning.
The 10 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front, the first of this season, advancing slowly southeastward across north FL and southeast GA. This yields high temperatures in the 80 to 85 range and minimum dewpoints in the lower 50s. While the high temperatures are actually close to average for this time of year, the much drier air will make it feel much more pleasant.
146 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 A large area of low pressure will remain in place over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week, providing cool and occasionally rainy conditions. Chances for rain will begin to diminish on Saturday, as the low gradually begins to move to the northeast.
/Issued 340 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles through Friday night allowing for a mostly dry weather pattern across the forecast area.
The 1036 MB high over eastern Quebec is allowing enough ridging and drier air at low levels to really impede the northward progression of the rain, much like it has most of the past 24 hours.
One last warm day before major Pacific trough off the northwest coast comes in Saturday with significant cooling. Diffuse surface cold front will pass through Oregon zones this evening and Idaho zones late tonight. Saturday will be 12 to 16 degrees cooler than today in all areas.
Upper low over the Ohio Valley looks to lift a bit north with the low level ridge over the Missouri Valley weakening somewhat. This should allow for slightly more cirrus to reach eastern Kansas with time with the airmass modifying a bit for slightly warmer high temps today. The ridge weakens enough for winds off the surface to go more easterly this evening, bringing the potential for the low cloud over eastern portions of Iowa and Missouri early this morning to make their way into northeastern Kansas late this evening. Saturday may see some patchy fog in northeast Kansas especially in the lower elevations and river valleys. Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the lower to mid 70s across the area.
328 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 A closed and nearly stacked low pressure system was centered over TN/KY early this morning. As long as the low pressure system remains nearby, sfc winds will retain a northerly component and substantial cloud cover will be present, particularly over the eastern part of the CWA which will be closer to the low pressure system.
This system will provide just a taste of winter, bringing much cooler temperatures and a little valley snowfall.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s along the Keys island chain. Weak but relatively broad high pressure across south Florida today will ease eastward through late this evening and overnight. A weak trough will extend from the southeast coast across north Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through that time and further into the weekend. If anything, activity should favor the western portion of the service area this morning as the lower flow settles more uniformly from the east.
High pressure will nose into the region behind a cold front tonight. With it will come cooler and drier air by morning. Cold front will be south of the CWA at the beginning of the short term with drier air in place across the CWA with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. As weak surface and stronger upper level low pull northward on Saturday, moisture begins to increase across the far southeast portion of the CWA - mainly Dixie and Lafayette Counties and thus cannot rule out a shower or two. Will see cooler high temperatures Friday compared to today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
The reason why we are having this weather is a closed low across the Great Lakes is pushing down this cooler air. However, this low will move to the north this weekend and a more westerly flow regime develops in the mid and upper levels.
Valleys and I-25 corridor could see a couple cells drift off the higher terrain by late in the day, so will keep isolated pops in place most lower elevations.
We are owed what the next couple of days will provide us in South Texas as large scale ridging across the region continues to keep us dry but also adds in the drying northerly winds.
The main story through the short term will be the upper level low across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and how vort lobes rotating around this low will impact our region.
Afternoon temps will be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday as mostly cloudy skies will prevent much diurnal heating. By Saturday night, the low will be centered over the great lakes region. The positioning of the low Saturday will still continue to impact the weather over the northeast. Saturday will be another chilly day with temps reaching the low to mid 60s. During this period the slow moving upper level low will track from southern Michigan to western New York.
Surface ridging maintains light winds with speeds less than 10 KTS. South Central Texas remains under the influence of a mid-to-upper level ridge between a quasi-stationary cutoff low centered over Kentucky and a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Clear skies and weak northerly winds behind yesterday's reinforcing cold front is allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s and lower 60s for most of the region this morning. Weak H850-925 cold air advection will allow high temperatures to be about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, but Superblend was adjusted up a few degrees to match guidance trends, previous forecasts, and the potential for weak adiabatic warming.
Much of the region will remain influenced by ridging. although a portion of the DVL basin may get clipped by forcing (weak showers) from weak upper waves ejecting from trough about to crash onshore across the western CONUS.
309 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 High pressure will remain across the area through Saturday.
Surface dewpoints have already fallen to near 60 across the northern ranchlands with values still near 70 in the Lower RGV. Some mid-high clouds may spill over the top of the ridge and stream by from time-to-time, but expect a lot of sunshine overall. Friday night low temperatures will be in the 60's most areas, apart from the coast where they will be in the low 70's.
Highs today will will be similar to yesterday, and range from near 70 in the east, but a few degrees cooler from 72-75 degrees west of highway 83. Forecast highs are a few degrees warmer than the raw met and mav guidance values today. Synoptically, an upper trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest today, as a closed low remains nearly stationary across the Ohio Valley. Synoptically, an upper trough in the Pacific Northwest will dig southward into California, as a closed low continues to remain nearly stationary across the Ohio Valley.
The main low pressure will continue to swirl over Indiana. Temperatures today and tonight will be similar to yesterday for the most part as ridging remains.
The main feature throughout the short-term forecast will be the upper level closed low currently centered across Central Kentucky. The highest dewpoints across the forecast area are in locations closest to the boundary across Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. Most of the activity is expected to stay to the east where the higher PW air is but expect the moisture gradient will be right along the CWA border. Most of the area will remain dry today as the upper low drifts to the north.
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Low pressure will drift across the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
South Central Texas remains under the influence of a mid-to-upper level ridge between a quasi-stationary cutoff low centered over Kentucky and a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Clear skies and weak northerly winds behind yesterday's reinforcing cold front is allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s and lower 60s for most of the region this morning. Weak H850-925 cold air advection will allow high temperatures to be about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, but Superblend was adjusted up a few degrees to match guidance trends, previous forecasts, and the potential for weak adiabatic warming.
With a low pressure system west of the region, breezy southerly winds can be expected today, especially along and west of the Missouri River. Models suggest the stratus will remain over eastern SD on Saturday with cooler temperatures.
Surface ridging will maintain winds less than 10 KTS. /ISSUED 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016/ High pressure will settle over the region behind a cold front keeping skies mainly clear.
It is developing over relatively warmer Lake Superior, where the average surface water temperature is about 53 degrees, with the air temperature now in the 40s where clouds have not formed. On the larger scale, the upper level low that we have been dealing with for several days now is currently over the lower Ohio river valley. Otherwise, the ridge axis is expected to linger over the northern portions of the area. Higher clouds from the upper low may keep temperatures warm enough to diminish the potential for stratus formation. Temperatures today to be warmer than yesterday with the clouds expected to clear, so have brought highs up into the mid-upper 60s most locations. Saturday to be slightly cooler than today, depending on exact cloud cover.
357 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 The well advertised upper low continues to spin over Lexington this morning, bringing isolated shower activity to far eastern Kentucky toward the Ohio Valley. Will continue to see the main precipitation shield move northward through the day today as the upper low slowly wobbles toward the Ohio River, thus keeping much of eastern Kentucky dry.
/issued 327 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/ This morning our area sits sandwiched between a large, deep upper low over the Ohio Valley and a deepening trough across the West. At the surface, high pressure is nosing in behind the weak cold front that moved through yesterday. Upper ridging begins to flatten across our region this weekend while warming occurs in the mid levels.
1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 The low pressure system in the lower Ohio River Valley continues to slowly move south today. On Friday, the low pressure system will begin to back-track slightly to the NW into Indiana. Cloud cover will push further west and stick around for most of the day Saturday, but the low pressure system will finally begin to move completely out of the area. High temperatures will increase a few degrees Friday for the western portion of the CWA as cloud cover keeps the eastern portion a few degrees cooler. Temperatures Saturday will reach the low 70s.
Todays highs will be near average climbing to the lower 80s for most locations. ranging from the lower to middle 50s inland and the lower to middle 60s along the immediate coast.
/issued 953 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ A deep upper low is located over Kentucky this evening. Meanwhile most of the shower activity remains NE of the region closer to the upper low itself. Winds are brisk from the north with the highest gusts near 25mph in the Delta. models have a strong handle on the upper level low in the mid Ohio valley. For the Midsouth cyclonic flow around the low will keep skies mostly cloudy in the north and east with a threat for isolated showers.
431 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 A large upper level low will remain in place over the Ohio Valley today, and then begin lifting north through the Great Lakes this weekend. Under the influence of this upper low expect cool and occasionally rainy conditions. Chances for rain will begin to diminish on Saturday, as the low gradually begins to move to the northeast.
Mid- and high-level clouds may to drift by from time-to-time as they spill over the "top" of an upper-level ridge axis aligned along the Rio Grande River. /issued 301 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A cold frontal boundary remains just to the south of the RGV. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build into the region overnight. cooler conditions are also expected.
Winds will be light and the low tonight will be in the low 40s under mostly clear skies.
Persistent dry NE low level flow well north of the low center has kept much of the precip at bay across our CWA so far. large area of heavier precip continues to make steady NW progress into Southern Lower Michigan driven by a strong vort lobe rotating around the upper low. So far the forecast is going close to anticipated with the upper low from a couple of days ago stalling out across the southern Ohio Valley.
216 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Stacked upper low over central Kentucky this morning will move little during the day but begin to lift northward tonight and be centered over east central Indiana by 12z Saturday as it heads toward lower Great Lakes.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure resides over the region. Cool and dry conditions are still on tap for tonight as reinforcing high pressure builds across S TX.
PVA and moisture transport will increase toward late afternoon and through the night as the upper low moves nwd through IN tonight.
332 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 A large upper level low pressure system has been nearly stationary over the Ohio River valley the past two days, after dropping south from the Great Lakes earlier this week.
70/DD For 06Z TAFs: Nocturnal satellite imagery suggests that a lower stratus deck continues to develop from wrn TN sewd into nrn AL, due to weak lift south of an upper low across central KY.
A cold front is still on track to pass through the region on Saturday morning, so showers and thunderstorm chances remain ahead of and with the front.
436 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Fair and dry weather continues as high pressure over Quebec remains over the North Country. A closed upper low over the Ohio valley will linger there through Saturday.
Scattered areas of light rain and drizzle will remain possible overnight as a warm front continues to lift through the region. Northeast Oklahoma TAF sites could begin to clear out with breezy southwest to westerly winds behind the dryline and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Pavement and air temperatures are at or above freezing for the entire area so no freezing drizzle is expected.
The low pressure trough has really dug southward as it moved inland. Warm south winds over the South Central Highlands definitely helped change some snow over to rain in the lower Snake Plain and as far north as Idaho Falls. After this storm moves through early Wed, the upper level ridge solution has high confidence. The clear skies under the ridge allow for warming, but how much is the main forecast problem. The Tue afternoon/Tue night/Wed morning storm will also pack a punch with the wind, as the low-amplitude feature supports westerly wind even in the upper levels. Front will bring temperatures below freezing and return precipitation type to sn.
/issued 356 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016/ Texarkana is holding the warm front at bay, but it has crossed I-30 at Mount Pleasant.
248 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 Warm front lifts across the area this afternoon and tonight.