Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds today from the east becoming southeast and then south this evening providing some element of upslope as next wave rounds the high to the west. Lows tonight fall into the low 60s. The beginning of the weekend starts off pleasant in the morning with temperatures rising into the low 90s by the afternoon.
Hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms will impact the region this afternoon, as a subtle upper level impulse approaches from the northwest, and a weak cold frontal zone moves slowly south over southern KS. After midnight, thunderstorm chances may increase from the west, as a loosely organized thunderstorm complex or two rolls southeast off the High Plains, amidst favorable moist/unstable low-level inflow.
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A weak cold front will approach/enter northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. More numerous storms are expected to develop over the high plains of eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Clouds from convection overnight and lingering showers should keep temperatures cooler on Saturday, especially the northern half of Oklahoma. Better rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening will be across the eastern half of Oklahoma where cooler 85-7h temperatures will be along with better near surface moisture.
A band of dry air will remain along the I-10 corridor into portions of southeast Georgia, with higher moisture rotating around the ridge into north central Florida. The base of the trough will push to the northern Gulf coast on Saturday, and a cold front will push into northern Georgia. Temperatures will be hot once again, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the 100-108F range. Upper level trough establishes itself in the Northeast and pushes southward across the Southeast this period.
239 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 More convection under the big ridge through this evening. So the lower atmosphere is moistening as expected and this trend will continue through Saturday night.
A cold front will approach the region late tonight and Saturday bringing a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.
439 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 More convection under the big ridge through this evening. So the lower atmosphere is moistening as expected and this trend will continue through Saturday night.
Combination of post synoptic front and possible modified surface air from convection could keep temperatures Saturday as much as 10 degrees cooler than this afternoon, although reality may only bring about 5 degrees off.
The subtropical ridge extends across central Florida this morning with a weak ridge aloft. This mornings sounding and water vapor imagery shows the increase in mid level moisture transported from the Caribbean area from an upper low just west of Florida. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge axis oriented across the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula today will slowly dip south into southern Florida through Saturday, with light low level flow continuing.
At any rate, given the high-resolution model solutions, have maintained isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening from the White Mountains extending north-to-west of Tucson, or into southern Pinal County and western/central Pima County.
250 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Initial cold front has passed through Decatur and should soon be in Champaign, although the drier air is lagging behind and the dew point drop is closer to I-80. Drier northwest flow will prevail overnight into Saturday, as high pressure settles into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
/issued 316 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ The upper ridge currently over the western U.
We relied on the warmer and drier edge of the 00 UTC model suite to build the temperature and humidity forecast today. Weak warm air advection is expected aloft with 850 mb temperatures by late day 1-3 C warmer than yesterday.
Upper level ridging will bring a short heat wave with mainly dry weather and triple digit highs through the weekend.
618 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring scattered showers and a few storms overnight. leaving a more stable airmass in it's wake for the cold front as it crosses the region overnight. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry. Upper troughing persists, but becomes less amplified through midweek, with several waves progged for passage during this time from. With some uncertainty in timing, stayed on the lower end of a blend of guidance, with mainly chance pops each day. IFR stratus is expected overnight/early Sat with increasing low level moisture, but this should quickly mix out by late Sat morning under dry advection and building high pressure.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A 596 decameter ridge is over the four corners, with a broader and slightly weaker mid- level pattern over the Gulf. An inverted upper trough over the Southwest Gulf has a surface reflection, and convective activity continues to develop over that area and move north, fueled by plentiful tropical moisture. Meanwhile, the trough will edge slowly west toward the Northeast Mexican coast. High temperatures Saturday will be near normal in the lower to mid 90s due to increased cloud cover and rain chances.
Ridge axis will be displaced southward from troffing occurring in the eastern U. Low level ridge axis drifts a little farther south to around Lake Okeechobee, with light s-sw flow surface through mid levels.
Meanwhile, a slightly stronger cold front will move southward through the Ohio Valley late in the overnight period, and reach just to our north during the predawn hours. So, low temperatures will be similar to those observed the last few nights, with most locations remaining in the lower 70s.
In the low levels an anticyclonic flow is expected.
654 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Update Cooler air will briefly return to Lower Michigan tonight through Saturday night behind a cold front that is moving south across southern Lower Michigan.
Even hotter temperatures are occurring in the lower Hells Canyon. These hot temperatures will continue Saturday under the grips of strong high pressure across much of the West.
347 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Today will be noticeably cooler behind the cold front that moved through late yesterday. High amplitude ridging will remain in place for the Northern Rockies, through at least Mon, allowing heat to build across the Central/Southern Plains. Downstream of the ridge will be a persistent trough over Hudson Bay, which will translate into a cool/seasonal northwest flow for the Great Lakes region and especially the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Ensembles begin to indicate good agreement that the ridge upstream will begin to relax/flatten Tue, with the flow transitioning towards a quasi- westerly orientation. With cooler air aloft, any heating during the day Sun would likely be warm enough to produce an isolated thunderstorm.
331 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a long cold front from central Quebec province extending southwest thru lower Michigan into central Missouri and Kansas. The center of expanding high pressure resides over lower Saskatchewan province into the Central Plains. Aloft, the Upper Mississippi Valley region is squarely placed within northwest flow aloft between a large ridge out west and a longwave trough centered over the Appalachians. This activity is expected to be weak and short-lived as the synoptic features move east through this evening, allowing the high pressure system to the northwest to spread into the north-central CONUS tonight thru tomorrow. Highs will again reach the lower 80s like today while lows early tomorrow morning bottom out in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Conditions should improve this evening and overnight, but an inverted trough over the Southwest Gulf is generating more activity in that area, and guidance and short range models support additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. /issued 356 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Brownsville radar indicates a few coastal showers developing and moving northwest along the lower Texas coast this morning. Deep tropical moisture, in combination with an 500mb inverted trough, and light to moderate southeasterly winds will enhance convection along the seabreeze today and again Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 70s across the ranchlands to upper 70s near the coast under partly cloudy skies.
Better chances for widely scattered storms will arrive during peak heating along a southward sagging cold front. The higher probabilities should arrive after 21z when convergence is maximized and cinh is progged to diminish across south central KS with dewpoints progged to pool along the boundary.
Everybody will warm solidly into the 80s today with dew points remaining in the low 70s ahead of tonight's "frontal" passage.
High pressure will slide off to the east Saturday and warm air advection will kick in across western North Dakota.
Widely scattered thunderstorms may form near a cold front in southern Kansas by 21-22z. Cold front storms will likely dissipate near sunset. Additional convection is expected to move off the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. Water vapor, mid and low moisture is detected along the boundary, with dry air aloft, through the mid into the low levels across central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Expectations are for scattered storms to develop along this boundary this evening on the high plains of Colorado/Kansas, with additional development late tonight along the boundary across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. This potential convection and associated cloud cover should keep temps a few degrees cooler than are seen today.
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Cold front crosses Saturday morning.
Cold front and associated shower/thunderstorm activity now safely to our south, although plenty of lower level moisture still lingers. Cold front now extends from the Quebec/ Ontario border thru Eastern Upper Michigan and Wisconsin into Central Iowa early this morning. but will come to an end by around sunset with loss of diurnal instability as well as the exit of the cold front. Temps will be noticeably not as warm today thanks to CAA in the wake of the cold front. High temps will range from the lower 70s across Eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the Mitt to the upper 70s near Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s.
348 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Surface observations across SE Texas showed temperatures in the low/mid 90s and heat index values from 95 to 105F except for the rain cooled areas from Bay City to Wharton. Upper level ridging tries to build but the ridge remains over the Rockies with a inverted trough over Mexico.
233 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 18Z surface data had the cold front from northwest Indiana into southern Kansas while the dew point front ran from the Chicago area into central Missouri. After sunset and continuing through Saturday, dry and pleasant conditions will be seen as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
142 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms today and tonight, some of which may be strong or severe. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
332 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front over the Central Great lakes will push across the forecast area tonight.
An excessive heat warning remains in effect through this evening for northern Gila County and the lower elevations of Yavapai County, as well as areas along the Colorado River.
Upper air charts from last evening showed a large and fairly strong mid/upper tropospheric ridge/anticyclone centered over the Four Corners region, with our area in northwest flow. Thermal ridge at 700 mb extended from NM/AZ/UT/CO into NE and western IA.
With surface dewpoints remaining in the 60s, highs today and lows tonight will be very close to seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 90s and mainly around 70, respectively.
Our area will be under weak northeast flow aloft, with a large upper level high centered over southern Utah tonight and Saturday. Lows tonight are expected to be 70-73 degrees, with highs on Saturday in the lower to mid 90s. Upper level high pressure centered over the Four-Corners area will ridge east and southeast across the area and make for a dry forecast for most periods.
Axis of 500mb ridge has slid just a bit to the west of its position from yesterday. Thus, we believe we will see notably less storm coverage than yesterday with the best chance of precipitation mainly over the higher terrain today. Ridge asserts itself Saturday and do not see much in the way of forcing affecting our CWA except perhaps for the Absaroka/Beartooth Mtns, but a few cells could hold together off the mountains Saturday evening and drift as far east as Yellowstone County.
Latest model suites are still hinting at the main cold front, located from the OH Valley into the Midwest states, dropping further to the S overnight and approaching the nrn half of the local area heading into the early morning hrs Sat. Overnight temps should again be around 70F, before slightly cooler/drier air begins to stream swd into the area on Sat. As alluded to in the first section, the aforementioned cold front should continue to push swd thru the area during the day Sat. Slightly cooler/drier conditions will then develop Sat night, as cloud cover diminishes with the cold front moving S of the local area. Quiet and near seasonal temps then finally return heading into the latter half of the weekend period, as a strong area of high pressure out of the nrn/mid Plains builds sewd into the region.
This heated and moistened airmass is in place ahead of approaching cold front, seen by wind shift extending across ncntl IL. Dew points should be falling into the low to mid 60s, and more or less staying there, thru the remainder of the weekend. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s will cause heat indices to flirt with 100 mainly Wed and Thu. All the models showed an initially somewhat amplified western ridge/eastern trof pattern gradually flattening as the western ridge expanded eastward. Approaching cold front will introduce vicinity thunderstorm mention for KEVV and KOWB.
422 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Latest IR imagery from this afternoon shows broad troughing over the Ohio Valley and elongated upper level high pressure aloft dominating South Florida.
High pressure moves in tonight with clear sky. High pressure over the area Saturday with plenty of sunshine.
Given the low confidence with the isolated convection affecting the E TX/N LA terminals, have omitted VCTS mention in the 12Z TAF's, but will be monitored based on radar trends through the afternoon. Through the weekend, the upper ridge will remain parked in the Rockies and we will remain in NW flow aloft. A weak cold front will also try to backdoor its way through the region on Saturday, providing a focus area for showers and thunderstorms.
328 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front over the Central Great lakes will push across the forecast area tonight.
Cooler air was already returning to the area, post the cold front partially responsible for the storms of last night, and low level lapse rates from 8-10 C/km are progged via bufkit soundings.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected this evening and on through the remainder of the period based on a general lack of saturation in the lower or boundary layers per forecast time-height sections. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected later today in response to the upper trough entrenched across the eastern half of the CONUS. The trough axis will be oriented more directly across the region today which could result in slightly higher convective coverage than was seen yesterday. Very similar setup expected for Saturday as well although the trough axis shifts east into AL/GA which may result in slightly lower overall coverage.
A cold front to our north will start to approach the area later today, pushing through the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. While not particularly unusual for early July, today will likely feel like one of the warmer days of the summer thus far. Any thunderstorms that do develop are expected to push south into Arkansas and Oklahoma by mid to late evening, with cooler and drier air pushing into the area later tonight. Saturday is looking like a fantastic day across the region, with cooler temperatures and dewpoints into the low to mid 60s, along with light winds.
159 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front moving through the region this evening will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will be cooler and breezy with scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
/Tonight through Saturday/ We continue to be in northwest flow aloft while at the surface, high pressure will drift across the state through Saturday. especially tonight but for Saturday as the high slides southeast moisture will increase across our west. as the high begins to move southeast late tonight soundings indicate winds switching around to the south across Nebraska and South Dakota and models try to develop a warm font out there. With the high overhead, comfortable temps in store tonight and Saturday with lighter winds.
306 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 The upper level ridge that is in place over the Great Basin has shifted westward enough to allow for a few perturbations to move into NE Colorado. Increased moisture from earlier today has allowed for better instability and cooler temperatures on the plains for this afternoon. QG ascent will also be more stable for the lower elevations so only expect a slight chance of storms. Conditions will be more favorable for the higher terrain and Palmer Divide areas where storms could bring gusty winds, small hail and lightning by Saturday afternoon.
159 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Aviation A cold front will push through the region this morning resulting in thunderstorms. An area of high pressure then moves in for Saturday resulting in lower temperatures.
320 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Cold front crosses Saturday morning.
304 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will bring showers and storms through tonight, some of which may be strong or severe.
Behind the frontal boundary, expect mostly sunny skies and more moderate temperatures today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and noticeably lower humidity making for more pleasant conditions.
Areas that aren't receiving storms are reaching the lower 90s, while thunderstorms cool conditions to around 80 elsewhere.
Feature of interest today is the weak upper level low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. THIS WEEKEND: A increase in tropical moisture moving into the area combined with a mid level trough moving into the southeastern US will bring higher rain chances as well as coverage this weekend. High pressure will build back across South Florida with easterly flow continuing and a typical sea breeze driven summertime pattern for the start of next.
As thunderstorms push eastward onto the plains during the evening, should see a period of gusty north to northwest winds as outflows from thunderstorms reinforce the surge of the cold front. high pressure will be centered over Utah with northerly flow across Colorado. At the surface, a cold front will have passed through the Plains by morning with moist northeasterly flow through the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with upper 80s to lower 90s for highs.
Synoptically, an upper ridge is spread across the Western US as a trough dips down through the Great Lakes and into the Central Appalachians.
321 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Cold front slowly making it's way south across forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed up into the low to mid 90s with heat indices briefly in the 100 to 109 degree range. By Tues, the large low system over the Hudson Bay region is progd to slowly move ewd as the upper ridge currently over the wrn U. Mdls suggest the upper ridge will begin to break down on Fri allowing a sfc fnt back into at least some portion of the CWA. This will again provide a focus for TSRA and have kept PoPs for this and trended temps slightly cooler. Tilly Cold front is making slow progress to the south across forecast area. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Cold front is making slow progress to the south across forecast area.
219 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Cold front crosses Saturday morning.
418 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 This afternoon a cool front was located from Southwest Kansas through the Midwest and the Great Lakes region to a low pressure system positioned across Eastern Canada. Increasing cloud cover overnight should keep low temps tonight in the lower 70s south of I-40 and upper 60s/low 70s north of I-40 with the front/precip moving into the region. Temperatures behind the front look to be a few degrees cooler with forecast highs in the upper 80s/low 90s possible.
In WI, proximity to the cooler temperatures aloft associated with the Manitoba wave do not have this warm nose and have soundings supportive of convection. With dry air in place, lows should find their way into the lower 50s, or few degrees below the crossover temperature, so the potential for dense fog in western WI will need to be watched.
/Issued 427 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ Short term models have initialized well and are in good agreement as far as handling of the elongated trough slowly sagging southward through the forecast area. Proximity of the trough and weak impulses moving through the upper level flow, as well as weak surface boundary will continue chances for shower and thunderstorm development through the short term periods. Models push upper trough/surface wave further south tomorrow with the main focus south of an Atlanta to Athens line.
For Saturday night a warm front sets up from north central ND southeast into western Minnesota.
243 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Current surface map shows weak high pressure across the Dakotas.
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 The current upper level height pattern with a ridge centered over the western CONUS and a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to persist through the weekend.
622 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Aviation Cooler air will briefly return to Lower Michigan tonight through Saturday night behind a cold front that is moving south across southern Lower Michigan.
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A bit of a break from the Summer heat today, thanks to a weak cold front which moved through last night. Otherwise, today should feature slightly cooler temperatures with a considerably drier feel to the air by the afternoon thanks to falling dewpoints in the 50s. We should still see slight redevelopment of afternoon CU, especially over the Buffalo Ridge. Another sneaky area to monitor for a few showers would be the Buffalo Ridge areas of MN/IA after midnight. Mostly dry and very warm weather conditions continue as the large upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners slowly moves northeastward into the Central/High Plains. With the ridge in place, northwest flow aloft,temperatures will again be above normal through the period.
Through the afternoon/early evening as the wave continues to drop southeast, scattered showers/storms are expected, with the highest coverage across north-central into central Wisconsin. Weak high pressure will build over the area on Saturday with seasonable temps, light winds, and comfortable humidity levels.
Unlike last night though, the cold front may bring slightly more winds to keep us better mixed. Northwest surface winds Saturday will bring in drier and cooler weather. With high pressure right over us Saturday night, we should see temperatures cool into the 50s in some locations.
Overall upper level wx pattern remains the same, with ridge over the Four Corners region and troughing over the ern CONUS. Several disturbances/weak cold fronts will move sewd across our region through the weekend, providing some extra focus for mainly diurnally-driven convection. Ridge is fcst to begin to migrate ewd during the early and middle portion of next work week, which will cut off our nw flow pattern.