Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today Through Sunday Night Temps continue to warm across the CWA early this Sat morning as the warm front to the south lifts north towards the state. Expect this warm front to lift north across the CWA this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow temps to warm into the 60s to near 70 before the cold front moves SE into the CWA by around midday across the NWRN counties. Expect the aforementioned cold front to move SE through the CWA by late this afternoon into the early evening hrs before exiting to the SE tonight. especially in the higher terrain.
A cold front will also move through the region today and we have generally left the timing of the front similar to the previous forecast. A few light showers are possible along the cold front through early afternoon. An upper level trough is moving across the Rockies and the flow over Texas is southwesterly. At the surface, a warm front has moved north of our CWA and winds are from the southeast. A cold front is stretched from the Panhandle border with Oklahoma to near Dryden.
The first line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front will move through CKV by 20Z and BNA/MQY by 22Z. This system will be quick moving and conditions will rapidly improve post cold front. Winds out a head of the of the cold front will be gusty from the south.
Low flight categories expected over the next several hours as low clouds will remain over the TAF sites ahead and along a cold front sweeping across the region during the period. Ceilings will begin to rise back into VFR categories from west to east during the day as drier and cooler air move in behind the front.
252 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 An intensifying area of low pressure across northeastern Nebraska is expected to gradually shift east through the evening and overnight hours with some wrap around moisture bringing a light dusting of snow to areas primarily across south central Nebraska overnight. short term guidance is indicating winds will peak just after 00Z as the low continues to intensify and shift east. plan on refreshing the High Wind Warning this afternoon, but not extending it beyond its current expiration of 9 AM CST Sunday. a relative quiet period of weather is in store for the local area through the upcoming week as high pressure builds in behind the departing low to start the extended periods.
If the overcast/broken skies hang in temps may level off a touch cooler than forecast, however don't think that will happen and once there are more breaks in the clouds we should see highs hit the upper 70s and a few lower 80s. There will also be pretty impressive mid level jet moving through the Lower MS Valley with 60-70kts at h5 moving through the CWA. Could see a few shra late this afternoon but more likely this evening ahead of the cold front. Cold front should approach BTR around 3/4z and then coastal MS between 8-11z.
As such, the High Wind Warning continues for north-central Kansas until 15Z Sunday where sustained winds will be between 30 and 40 mph with gusts to near 60 mph possible.
The temperature forecast overnight through Sunday night leans on the bias corrected short term model blend which was cooler than the deterministic short term model blend and the guidance blend. Return flow around a weak area of high pressure Sunday night will likely limit radiational cooling effects. The upper level flow will become mostly zonal sending Pacific high pressure into the central Plains.
Sent out a quick update to increase freezing drizzle chances over the northwest/far north central. Forecast soundings are struggling with this, but observations have been coming in reporting a return to freezing drizzle. Will continue a freezing drizzle/snow blend into this evening for the aforementioned area as precipitation slowly diminishes from northwest to southeast.
In terms of headlines, have continued winter storm warning along the highway 14 corridor, and west of the James River Valley for snow and wind tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will decrease through the afternoon hours on Sunday as pressure gradient begins to relax as strong low pressure system moves away from the area.
Upper soundings near watertown show a loss of ice in the upper levels, however moisture continues in the low levels, indicating a mix of light snow and FZDZ possible through this evening so have kept that in the forecast the next few hours in the Hamlin/Codington/Deuel region.
Winds are likely to briefly weaken this evening before increasing again overnight as a cold front sweep southward. /Issued 230 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/ Main forecast concern today is the ongoing gusty west to southwest winds and the nonzero potential for another round of advisory criteria gusts tomorrow following tonight's cold frontal passage. Warmer and much drier conditions have prevailed areawide for much of today, resulting from the arrival of the strong downslope west to southwest flow behind last night's frontal passage. A much stronger cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing another round of strong winds from the northwest and much cooler temperatures.
858 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Snow bands continue to wrap around big upper low and into the ABR CWA from the north and east. Upper soundings near watertown show a loss of ice in the upper levels, however moisture continues in the low levels, indicating a mix of light snow and FZDZ possible through this evening so have kept that in the forecast the next few hours in the Hamlin/Codington/Deuel region.
321 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Winds have shifted to the NNW across NW OK and the panhandles behind the cold front this afternoon, with slower speeds within prefrontal trough just ahead of it. A cold front will follow for Fri lowering temps back to near avg.
Winds are expected to decrease in speed through the evening as a low pressure system sweeps eastward into the Great Plains. Winds will fortunately be much lighter on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure aloft moves over the Land of Enchantment.
/issued 321 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/ Winds have shifted to the NNW across NW OK and the panhandles behind the cold front this afternoon, with slower speeds within prefrontal trough just ahead of it. A cold front will follow for Fri lowering temps back to near avg.
A cold front/frontal boundary is currently moving across the Austin area. In the wake of the cold front, winds will prevail from the northwest to north tonight into Sunday. The cold front still sits to our north and has been crawling as of this morning. By the time the front eventually makes it through the area, winds will shift out of the north, bringing in cooler and much drier air. Tomorrow will be clear and cooler with highs in the 60s and tomorrow nights lows in the mid to upper 30s, reminding us briefly, that it is December.
On Sunday, a strong cold front will approach from the NW, placing EC FL in breezy southwest flow. Max temps will reach the low 80s across the north where clouds will increase during the day. Even warmer in the mid 80s south of Orlando. On Sunday, southwest winds increase near 15 knots with gusts 20-25kts ahead of strong cold front. Winds will veer S/SW and increase 15-20 knots later tonight over the Volusia/Brevard waters as a strong cold front approaches from the NW.
Thin line of SHRA forming along cold front across E TX/N LA, near LFK to MLU at this hour. /issued 330 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/ A cold front is poised to move across our region tonight.
To this point, the discrete prefrontal convection has been intense, but we are still monitoring for greater intensification and an increased tornado threat as forcing increases ahead of the approaching cold front.
330 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 A cold front is poised to move across our region tonight.
An intensifying area of low pressure across northeastern Nebraska is expected to gradually shift east through the evening and overnight hours with some wrap around moisture bringing a light dusting of snow to areas primarily across south central Nebraska overnight. short term guidance is indicating winds will peak just after 00Z as the low continues to intensify and shift east. plan on refreshing the High Wind Warning this afternoon, but not extending it beyond its current expiration of 9 AM CST Sunday. a relative quiet period of weather is in store for the local area through the upcoming week as high pressure builds in behind the departing low to start the extended periods.
Adjusted pops to line up with latest 00Z CAM guidance, as well as tweaked temps a bit since warmer air is holding in the low levels a bit longer with strong southerly flow.
651 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 Regional IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the forecast area as a line of convection well to the north of Florida highlights a cold front that is forecast to reach the Nature Coast by late Sunday. Winds and seas will build over the coastal waters Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front pushes southeast through the region.
Nice well defined low pressure system centered about 570 miles west of Cape Mendocino CA. The snow there is expected to continue through the night and even intensify as the low pushes a frontal boundary through northern California and southern Oregon during the overnight hours. The low migrates southward weakens slightly on Sunday.
452 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Sent out a quick update to increase freezing drizzle chances over the northwest/far north central. Forecast soundings are struggling with this, but observations have been coming in reporting a return to freezing drizzle. Will continue a freezing drizzle/snow blend into this evening for the aforementioned area as precipitation slowly diminishes from northwest to southeast. Areas of light freezing drizzle and snow are still possible KXWA-KMOT this afternoon with IFR conditions, turning to all snow during the late afternoon.
TSRA with lower ceilings will accompany a cold front passage tonight as it moves across the forecast area with quick clearing and a shift to gusty westerly winds behind the front. To this point, the discrete prefrontal convection has been intense, but we are still monitoring for greater intensification and an increased tornado threat as forcing increases ahead of the approaching cold front.
Frontal passage has taken the low ceilings, resulting in little cloud cover to SKC.
/issued 651 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019/ Regional IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the forecast area as a line of convection well to the north of Florida highlights a cold front that is forecast to reach the Nature Coast by late Sunday. Winds and seas will build over the coastal waters Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front pushes southeast through the region.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 36 45 31 50 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 36 42 32 46 / 40 30 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 34 42 31 46 / 20 40 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 34 40 31 42 / 70 70 70 20 0 TN.
High pressure will build into the area through Sunday. The ridge over the Great Basin will continue to amplify overnight as an upstream storm system continues to carve south over the eastern Pacific.
111 AM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are mainly clear, except for extreme NE portions of the forecast area seeing low cloud cover on the backside of an exiting low pressure system. Winds across the CWA, although not as strong as they were earlier in the evening during the High Wind Warning, are still showing NW gusts in the 35-45 mph range. Going into today, looking for clearing trend in the east to continue allowing for sunny skies thru the day as high pressure builds over the region. The gradient between the exiting low and approaching ridge will remain tight thru the day with a continued slow downward trend in winds. with ridge approaching off the rockies from the north/northwest.
952 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Strong pressure gradient associated with cold front moving through the region is resulting in west northwest wind gusting to 40 to 45 mph portions of nern OK this evening. Gusty northwest wind will result in elevated fire danger but probably less so than we experienced today with slightly lower wind, higher relative humidity, and much cooler temperatures expected for Sunday as compared to today.
1152 PM MST Sat Nov 30 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over IA with upper ridge building into the northern rockies.
217 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 The low pressure system will move east this morning taking the snow and winds with it. High pressure will move in behind the low.
Teens will be possible across much of west central Kansas while elsewhere the lows tonight are expected to be in the 20 to 25 degree range. A warming trend can be expected during the first few days of the work week as an upper level ridge builds east in response to a deepening upper low sliding south off the west coast.
Subsidence drying continues this evening with warm-air advection ahead of an approaching mid-level ridge further stabilizing the atmosphere. Quiet weather returns Sunday through Sunday night as the high pressure ridge mentioned previously pushes over the area. Mid and high clouds increase Sunday night as the the trough moves east of the area.
241 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Upper level low and surface reflection have pivoted into central Iowa as of early this morning while the trowal continues to produce light show across the MO River valley and points east.
256 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Windy conditions continue across the forecast area, as a deep upper low to our northeast continues to slowly advance eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Cloud cover will run a similar course, with stratus wrapping around the upper low into eastern Kansas through the morning, but also advancing eastward in the afternoon. As winds diminish and clouds decrease, overnight lows drop into the upper teens north to the low 20s across the south.
A quick update this evening as the low level stratus clouds have eroded north of Idaho Falls while a broader area of mid-level clouds have already begun to invade the region from the southwest.
/Issued 952 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/ Strong pressure gradient associated with cold front moving through the region is resulting in west northwest wind gusting to 40 to 45 mph portions of nern OK this evening. Gusty northwest wind will result in elevated fire danger but probably less so than we experienced today with slightly lower wind, higher relative humidity, and much cooler temperatures expected for Sunday as compared to today.
1015 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Regional 88Ds show a long line of mainly showers accompanying the cold front. Thin line of SHRA forming along cold front across E TX/N LA, near LFK to MLU at this hour. /issued 330 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/ A cold front is poised to move across our region tonight.
1149 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 An intensifying area of low pressure across northeastern Nebraska is expected to gradually shift east through the evening and overnight hours with some wrap around moisture bringing a light dusting of snow to areas primarily across south central Nebraska overnight. short term guidance is indicating winds will peak just after 00Z as the low continues to intensify and shift east. plan on refreshing the High Wind Warning this afternoon, but not extending it beyond its current expiration of 9 AM CST Sunday. a relative quiet period of weather is in store for the local area through the upcoming week as high pressure builds in behind the departing low to start the extended periods.
/Today through Saturday/ A large, occluded low pressure system has been tracking slowly eastward across Iowa overnight. The center of the low is currently near Waterloo, and on the backside of the circulation a band of frontogenetical forcing is producing a swath of precipitation from around Mason City down to Creston. As temperatures have slowly cooled into the lower 30s and a warm layer aloft has eroded overnight, the precipitation within this band has transitioned from rain to snow. While the snow is falling relatively heavily within the band, surface temperatures remain largely above freezing and most of the band has been progressive, limiting residence time for any given location.
508 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Upper level low and surface reflection have pivoted into central Iowa as of early this morning while the trowal continues to produce light show across the MO River valley and points east. Mid level ridge axis moves overhead for Monday with a front sliding through by evening/overnight as a wave passes to our north.
A surface cold front has pushed through SE Texas overnight, leaving moderate northerly winds and clear skies in its wake.
Windy conditions continue across the forecast area, as a deep upper low to our northeast continues to slowly advance eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Cloud cover will run a similar course, with stratus wrapping around the upper low into eastern Kansas through the morning, but also advancing eastward in the afternoon. As winds diminish and clouds decrease, overnight lows drop into the upper teens north to the low 20s across the south.
349 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 LCH radar showing the last remaining showers associated with the cold front continuing to move out of the region, with only light showers offshore currently. FROPA overall was a little behind schedule resulting in a bit of a lag for the cooler and drier air to push in, but obs showing temps/dew points in the 50s/30s just outside the northern CWA boundary indicating it isn't far behind. Cooler air will be noted better by Monday with morning lows around 10 to 15 degrees below that of what is expected for this morning, and high temperatures around 10 or so degrees below normal.
Wind gusts of over 60 mph have just not happened, so we've converted the HIGH WIND WARNING over the western CWA to a WIND ADVISORY to match the remainder of the area. Winds will continue to relax as a cold dome of high pressure settles in.
The moisture is following a ridge of high pressure and as this moisture moves into Utah, it's riding up and over the ridge. This is causing the clouds to dissipate as they move downstream of the ridge axis. Even so, MOS guidance suggesting these warmer temps aloft won't make it to the surface, especially for those areas with new snowpack, so anticipate high temperatures very similar to yesterday.
329 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 As upper low moves east of the plains high pressure ridge over the Western US will build into the region.
Currently, deep low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley centered over Iowa, with ridging over the Rockies and another low pressure system off the Pacific coast. With the decreasing cloud cover road sfc temperatures will rise above freezing and will help get rid of the snow and ice cover being reported this morning on area roadways. A couple of waves will move across the region, each expected to be dry with mainly an increase in cloud cover, and the passages of weak warm and cold frontal systems.
/issued 425 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ Early morning GOES IR and water vapor imagery showed a deeply occluded upper low centered near the IA/MO/IL border point, lifting very slowly to the east. The upper low center will lift to the upper Ohio River valley late tonight.
545 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 High pressure is moving over the region with northerly to northwesterly winds.
Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the mid 50s across the Big Country (area along/north of I-20), to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor. Surface pressure ridge across our area tonight will facilitate good rational cooling conditions with light winds, clear skies and dry air in place.
318 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Strong upper level low pressure system that caused yesterdays wind storm now spinning into western Illinois with cool and dry northwest flow in it's wake across our area. Then, Monday will see solid height rises with an upper level ridge and eventually around 200 meters higher mid-level heights than we saw yesterday.
332 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Strong upper level low pressure system that caused yesterdays wind storm now spinning into western Illinois with cool and dry northwest flow in it's wake across our area. Then, Monday will see solid height rises with an upper level ridge and eventually around 200 meters higher mid-level heights than we saw yesterday.
333 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Strong upper level low pressure system that caused yesterdays wind storm now spinning into western Illinois with cool and dry northwest flow in it's wake across our area. Then, Monday will see solid height rises with an upper level ridge and eventually around 200 meters higher mid-level heights than we saw yesterday.
521 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Another night of howling winds is upon us in less than a week as a deep vertically stacked low pressure system moves through the region. Overall a trace of snow may be possible over northern Missouri by the afternoon timeframe as the backs side of the low pressure pushes through the region.
Models show the area of high pressure dropping in later today bringing the cool and drier air.
A cold front is bearing down on the aerodromes right now, and backing and intensifying winds will occur shortly as the front moves through. /issued 347 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that a cold front is bisecting the BRO CWFA right now.
Today Through Monday Night Dry conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this Sun morning in wake of the cold front that pushed through the state on Sat. especially in the higher terrain.
Travel problems are still expected for the higher mountains. Precip continues to spread over interior northern California as an area of low pressure remains off the coast.
An upper level low pressure system continues to lumber on through the area Sunday with cold air advection allowing for below freezing 850 temps. Moistening of the low levels begins to occur during the morning hours and that'll allow for scattered times of wintry mix of graupel, rain and drizzle especially with appreciable low level lapse rates over 7C/km and some 700 mb omega to work with. The upper low moves away Sunday night into early Monday with northerly winds left behind in its wake.
425 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Early morning GOES IR and water vapor imagery showed a deeply occluded upper low centered near the IA/MO/IL border point, lifting very slowly to the east. The upper low center will lift to the upper Ohio River valley late tonight.
Therefore the high wind warning was cancelled for our northern Kansas counties.
327 AM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 High pressure will build into the area today.
/issued 333 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ Strong upper level low pressure system that caused yesterdays wind storm now spinning into western Illinois with cool and dry northwest flow in it's wake across our area. Then, Monday will see solid height rises with an upper level ridge and eventually around 200 meters higher mid-level heights than we saw yesterday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that a cold front is bisecting the BRO CWFA right now.
Deep upper low noted on 09z/3am water vapor imagery over northern Missouri will track eastward across Illinois today. With very cold air aloft associated with the upper low as evidenced by 00z 500mb temps of -28C at both KOAX and KLBF, think the precip will initially begin as light snow west of the I-55 corridor shortly after daybreak. Given temps well above freezing, am expecting little or no snow accumulation. Skies will remain overcast through early Monday morning: however, as the upper low departs and heights begin to rise, a west to east clearing trend will get underway on Monday.
/Issued 303 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ Current satellite and RAP model analysis depicts a strong upper level low over Iowa and slight ridging over Nevada up into western Idaho. The low over Iowa is what had brought 50 to 60 mph gust into the FA yesterday. Winds have let up and the FA is now under northwest flow aloft and will be over the next couple of days before the ridge in the west gets here.
It will feel much warmer today as winds will be light with diurnal wind flow.