Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
-Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but many areas will be dry for the short term period We will continue to be under the influence of the Eastern US upper ridge for the short term. Heights will rise a bit today as the ridge strengthens over our area, and we will see deep layer easterly flow. There may be a few isolated showers across our far southeast corner, mainly SW NC, late tonight as the remnants of the weak low moving ashore near the GA/SC border are steered to the west/northwest by the ridge to its north.
Today and Tomorrow: The upper level trough remains entrenched over the central CONUS. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday as the upper level trough axis finally clears the area.
1147 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The area looks to remain under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft as troughing persists. For Monday, the trough axis hangs well northwest with bits of upper level energy proceeding it across southeast MN/northwest WI. The higher rain threat looks to come Tuesday as the mean upper level trough works in. Locally, this would give the closed low over the great lakes a kick east, and more zonal to perhaps even ridging aloft for the weekend.
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Active weather will continue through this evening as an upper level trough continues to impact the central Plains. This high will keep conditions dry through Tuesday.
114 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U. and on the east coast with a deep trough over the central U. Upper level ridge pattern will persist over the Pacific Northwest and over the New England coast to start off the medium range forecast. Between the two upper level ridges, will exist an elongated longwave trough stretching from the James Bay to the southwest toward the central Plains.
Upper level troughing that has been over the area for the past few days will begin to slide northeast on Tuesday. This will allow upper level high pressure to drift back over the area from the east. At the lowest levels winds will remain out of the east to southeast which will allow moisture to remain locked in place across the region through the end of the week. As the upper level high settles overhead this will effectively shut-off most of the upper level support for precipitation although scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible especially along mesoscale boundaries that remain unresolved at such long lead times. Upper level low pressure will strengthen and slide southwest out of the Great Lakes late this week and into the weekend.
Latest CAMs including 3km NAM and HRRR place the highest QPF totals across Eddy County and the HWY 54 corridor.
However, the eastern trough flanking the Pacific Northwest's Omega block will slowly begin to lift north late Tuesday and allow a weak mid-level ridge to begin building in over Texas. Overnight lows will reach the low-to-mid 70s tonight and tomorrow night.
159 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 High pressure will remain centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast through midweek. Aloft, an upper-level ridge off the Delmarva/lower mid-Atlantic coast continues to slowly retrograde or build westward across the lower mid-Atlantic coast. Temps as of 730 PM generally in the low to mid 80s. Will need to watch weak area of low pressure along the Carolina coast.
Strong upper high over southwest Canada changes little through Tuesday, but overhead trof does start to fill as heights rise across the Northern Plains. However, mid level winds are a bit enhanced today (30-35 knots H500) across southern Minnesota ahead of the upper trof, so, a pulse strong/severe storm can't be ruled out over that area, mainly east of the ABR CWA.
906 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 There was moderate to heavy rainfall in the Front Range mountains and foothills and even some light snowfall on the highest peaks this evening. A few showers producing light precipitation, mostly over the high terrain, will persist through the evening. The highest coverage is over the mountains and foothills from the divide eastward. WIll keep the highest pops going there. For convection on Monday, the highest CAPE, by far is over the mountains foothills again, especially south of I-70. It will be a bit warmer on Monday and there will be a bit more moisture over the plains on the precipitable water fields. Ensemble guidance has shown general agreement with the gradual breakdown of the blocking upper level ridge to the west and trough over Colorado.
306 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 This morning's satellite imagery shows two low pressure systems of interest near the southeast CONUS. This second low pressure system will be of interest later this week. Another muggy night with overnight lows and dewpoints in the lower 70s. We then turn our attention to the aformentioned low pressure system over the Atlantic near the GA/SC coastline.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the low 70s. Upper level heights will also be slightly higher as the ridge across the Mid-Atlantic tries to expand southwestward. This trough will supply the lift and moisture needed for showers and storms.
Sfc temps now in the low 80s with dewpoints from the upper 60s to near 70 is supporting 100mb ML CAPE around 1000 J/kg. A limiting factor for more widespread organized convection Monday looks to the be the fact that the mid level ridge will expand into the Upper Ohio Valley, leading to mid level height rises and potential capping across Se Mi. Although dampening, the mid level trough axis that has been nearly stationary across the Upper Midwest for the last several days will finally move across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.
951 PM PDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Triple digit heat is expected through the week with Tuesday likely the hottest day with some areas 110 degrees or warmer. A strong upper ridge will remain over the area with the high sun angle of late June continuing to warm the lower atmosphere as 850mb temperatures warm from near 29C today to 32-35C on Tuesday. Some of the lowest elevation areas such as Omak, Wenatchee, Chelan, Moses Lake, and Lewiston will top out near 115F, with most other towns across Eastern WA and North ID reaching 105-112F. A thermal trough (heat low) centered over western Oregon today and Monday will continue to result in an easterly pressure gradient over the area.
424 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 High pressure will remain centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast through midweek. A ridge aloft is center over the southern Mid- Atlantic with high pressures centered in the Atlantic Ocean extending westward over the region. The southeast flow off of the Atlantic is will keep humidity high as temperatures reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Temperatures will slowly cool tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
216 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 MORNING DISCUSSION: Unprecedented High Pressure has settled over the Pacific Northwest giving locations in Oregon and Washington as well as British Columbia all time record highs.
Expect temperatures to climb into the lower 80s (northwest) to middle 80s (southeast).
235 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Impacts from the upper high off to our east will begin to weaken today, and that trend will continue through the week. Tuesday looks to see an inverted trough to our south, and may provide enough forcing with the diurnal effects to get a few more showers and storms during the day.
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Risk for locally heavy rain into Tuesday - Isolated severe storms possible Tuesday - Cooler for the end of the week. - Cooler for the end of the week.
BRO radar currently indicates some showers and thunderstorms off the lower Texas coast. /issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Rain chances and cooler weather will move into the area through the short term. An inverted 500 mb trough and closed low will continue to gradually move westward over the region through Monday with rain chances increasing through the period. Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler, thanks to the increased cloud cover and potential for rain, with highs in the upper 80s east to low 90s west.
325 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 High pressure will remain centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast through midweek. Aloft, an upper-level ridge off the Delmarva/lower mid-Atlantic coast continues to slowly retrograde or build westward across the lower mid-Atlantic coast. Temps as of 730 PM generally in the low to mid 80s. Will need to watch weak area of low pressure along the Carolina coast.
Upper level high pressure continues across the region with clear skies and light winds. Temps are in the 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Plenty of sunshine to start the day with upper level high pressure extending over the region from the eastern seaboard. Highs will reach into the lower 90s again today with heat index values in the mid and upper 90s.
The high was helping to clear out some lingering moisture, but thick cloud cover has remained in place across east- central and northeast WI closer to the low. Based on current satellite trends and model forecasts expect the low clouds to dissipate through the afternoon, but a mix of some daytime cu and mid and high clouds will continue to roam the skies through the rest of today and overnight. Lows will range from the middle 50s in the Northwoods to the lower 60s in the Fox Valley. As the high moves east of WI flow returns to the S/SW which brings an uptick in temperatures and moisture.
233 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 An area of low pressure north of the Bahamas will gradually work its way westward towards the Georgia coastline today. There is still some uncertainty as to whether this system will be designated a tropical cyclone before it moves ashore sometime this evening. With southeast flow, there is no surprise on the high temperatures - warm with widespread low 90s, even near the coast.
A narrow trough axis stretching from the southern High Plains to Hudson Bay will inch eastward today.
344 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Radar and satellite show scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of the region early this morning, out ahead of the longwave trough highlighted nicely by the water vapor channels on GOES-16.
The large dome of high pressure with 500mb 596dm heights that has been over the Pacific northwest the past several days will be shifted eastward today and Tuesday.
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible.
As discussed yesterday, a very weak boundary has continued to linger from southeast Kansas into central Missouri and this afternoon, was slowly begun to lift back north ahead of the slow evolving upper trough to the northwest over the Plains. Along this axis, supportive isentropic ascent will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms as the upper trough begins to advance east this evening. Depending on your flavor of CAM, the HRRR has been rather consistent, convection is expected to develop along this pre-trough axis. Precipitation chances will carry into Monday, with rain and showers persisting as a blocking pattern keeps the region under broad ascent with ample moisture return feeding into the area.
345 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 As has been the case over the last couple of days, an upper trough continues to sit over Mid-America. Meanwhile, highly anomalous ridging continues across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia with another ridge over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast regions. The upper trough will begin to finally start its shift east this tonight thru Tuesday. However continued weak moisture advection amidst the high PW airmass will likely result in additional scattered showers and storms through mid week. With ample cloud cover and scattered showers and storms, temperatures will remain below normal in the low to mid 80s.
Today Through Tuesday Night To begin the period, a frontal boundary is located just to our west over parts of the Central Plains associated with an upper level trough. However, the forecast gets complicated by the upper level ridge to our east that is not budging. High temperatures look to climb up into the high 80s to low 90s with heat index values slightly higher. However, it appears temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days due to increase cloud coverage and rain showers.
Lows should fall into the low/mid 70s area wide. Tuesday will see the highest rain and thunderstorm chances.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A mid to upper level low currently spinning overhead as depicted on the latest GOES 16 satellite imagery. This inverted 500 mb trough and closed low will continue to slowly westward over the CWA today.
The overall synoptic pattern in the low and mid levels does not change much by tomorrow, so similar conditions can be expected. The low level boundary will remain close by as a mid-level trough axis remains sandwiched between an expansive ridge over the east- central US coastline and a stubborn ridge over the Pacific Northwest.
A cold front will approach from the northwest later in the week, bringing better thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Forecast lows range from the low 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast. Perhaps more importantly, the upper level ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast nudges back into the eastern Carolinas and a subsidence inversion begins to reappear between 7k-10kft. Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the east through the period.
BRO radar currently indicates some convection well south of the aerodromes and off the lower Texas coast. /issued 434 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A mid to upper level low currently spinning overhead as depicted on the latest GOES 16 satellite imagery. This inverted 500 mb trough and closed low will continue to slowly westward over the CWA today.
Aloft, under the influence of the main trof axis we can expect to see weak synoptic lift to help with the formation of today's storms. At the sfc a weak inverted trof and subsequent weak boundary will help to provide some mesoscale lifting to also help develop storms this afternoon. Highs today are also expected to be slightly cooler than previous forecasts have suggested. The remainder of the week is a little trickier to parse out as the trof aloft continues to lift to the northeast.
729 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Aviation - Risk for locally heavy rain into Tuesday - Isolated severe storms possible Tuesday - Cooler for the end of the week. - Cooler for the end of the week.
437 AM PDT Mon Jun 28 2021 High pressure will continue hot and dry weather for inland areas today with the marine layer keeping coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
Positively-tilted upper level troughing stretching from the central High Plains to the Northland gradually contracts over the course of the day as it interacts/partially phases with a northern stream wave rotating through Hudson Bay. The end result for our area will be a slight eastward shift in the upper trough axis and a small northward adjustment in the mid-troposphere moisture ribbon that has been lingering over the lower Missouri River Valley. Thus expect that the highest risk for showers will be in the western and southeastern portions of the forecast area, with the best thunderstorm risk in southeastern Minnesota. Limited deep shear under the upper trough should keep the main risks with any storm to lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Highs today should not differ too much from yesterday with readings in the lower 80s.
This area is also in a region of upper level divergence ahead of the upper level trough.
Generally lower shower and thunderstorm chances expected again today, as mid-level high pressure remains off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Overnight lows falling into the low to mid-70s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening, with the highest coverage along the interior south of Orlando.
1036 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible.
/issued 233 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021/ An area of low pressure north of the Bahamas will gradually work its way westward towards the Georgia coastline today. There is still some uncertainty as to whether this system will be designated a tropical cyclone before it moves ashore sometime this evening. With southeast flow, there is no surprise on the high temperatures - warm with widespread low 90s, even near the coast.
545 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Current synoptic analysis reveals little change aloft, with northerly flow draped overhead and a trough axis nosing into northeastern Colorado. By this evening, the nose of low pressure retrogrades southwest and winds across the Four Corners shift to the south. Temperatures will run a touch warmer today, though due to increased cloud cover and storm coverage highs should dip 3 to 8 degrees on Tuesday for areas generally along and south of I-70. The northern tier of the forecast area will be still a little to far removed from the storm activity and run another degree or two warmer tomorrow. Storms will generally wind down Tuesday night, though some light stratiform precipitation may lift along the the Divide as moisture rotates back around the northern periphery of the low.
Currently we aren't expecting strong storms, but the unusual location of the ridge does make for some interesting forecast challenges. High pressure over the region will cause VFR conditions today with some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds.
647 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 As has been the case over the last couple of days, an upper trough continues to sit over Mid-America. Meanwhile, highly anomalous ridging continues across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia with another ridge over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast regions. The upper trough will begin to finally start its shift east this tonight thru Tuesday. However continued weak moisture advection amidst the high PW airmass will likely result in additional scattered showers and storms through mid week. With ample cloud cover and scattered showers and storms, temperatures will remain below normal in the low to mid 80s.
232 AM PDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Triple digit heat is expected through the week with Tuesday likely the hottest day with some areas 110 degrees or warmer. HISTORIC AND DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY A massive ridge of high pressure is currently parked over the West Coast and centered near the WA/Canadian boarder. Beneath this ridge, a virtually cloudless sky is being observed across WA and ID as large scale subsidence prevents any clouds from forming. Given the relatively stagnant ridge and the intense June sun, temperatures will continue to warm today and even more so on Tuesday. Focusing the attention back on today, an easterly gradient will continue and will bring breezy conditions to the lower Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley.
/Issued 351 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021/ High pressure aloft will put a lid on today's afternoon thunderstorms. A few spots across south central GA should see temperatures in the low 90s. Strong upper level winds and a highly sheered environment have prevented further intensification, despite the center of the low's positioning above the warm waters of the gulf stream. Under ridging aloft. Still expect increasing diurnal summertime activity each day, with moisture really enhancing over the area late week and into the weekend as a deep trough develops over the Great Lakes and a frontal boundary and associated enhanced moisture axis sinks into the Tennessee Valley.
Temperature will be cooler than average thanks to storms and cloud cover.
409 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Upper air analysis depicts that the omega blocking pattern is still in effect across from British Columbia Canada into the Great Basin, and upper troughing over the Great Plains. As the upper level trough begins to transition towards the east, surface upslope winds should aid in the development of fog across the Laramie Range.
915 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 This morning we are starting off with mostly clear skies and temps already in the lower 80s. Our forecast will be controlled by the high pressure that is situated off to our NE today, but there is also a tropical disturbance located off the GA/SC coast that will be a bigger factor in the upcoming days. Another muggy night with overnight lows and dewpoints in the lower 70s. We then turn our attention to the aformentioned low pressure system over the Atlantic near the GA/SC coastline.
Impacts from the upper high off to our east will begin to weaken today, and that trend will continue through the week. Tuesday looks to see an inverted trough to our south, and may provide enough forcing with the diurnal effects to get a few more showers and storms during the day.
A mid level ridge continues to extend from the northern Atlantic across the Deep South today. A moist airmass remains from the northwestern Gulf through TX/LA in the wake of a departing easterly upper low, reinforced by southerly flow on the western periphery of the ridge. /DL/ A 500mb ridge remains in place over the east coast, resulting in easterly flow across the southeastern CONUS and into the forecast area. Temperatures remain hot and humid with south/southeasterly winds pushing deep moisture off of the Gulf and keeping the mid levels warmer. A deep upper low drops into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and drags a cold front into the Southeast towards the end of the week/into the weekend. Midlevels are not significantly cooler with the advance of the front. and the slightly cooler highs are dependent on the showers.
345 AM PDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Strong high pressure will continue hot weather this week, particularly for the northern half of the Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain. The surface thermal trough has migrated a bit further to the north and east allowing onshore gradient to extend further inland, and inland temperatures are a bit cooler compared to 24 hours ago. The cut-off low that's been off the coast over the weekend will begin to move north later today and Tuesday. NorCal will remain on the periphery of the strong high centered over the PacNW, though heights aloft are forecast to weaken slightly allowing some moisture to work its way back to the west beneath the high.
646 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible.
High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes through the next few days. Breezes will diminish for the second half of the week, as the high weakens and sags southward across Florida.
This morning's satellite imagery shows two low pressure systems of interest near the southeast CONUS. This second low pressure system will be of interest later this week. Another muggy night with overnight lows and dewpoints in the lower 70s. We then turn our attention to the aformentioned low pressure system over the Atlantic near the GA/SC coastline.
These storms could produce heavy rains, most likely across portions of northeast Oklahoma that haven't seen the highest rainfall totals over the past few days.
Strong, amplified ridging continues over the far west with the main high centered over the British Columbia/Washington border.
Synoptic scale features across the lower 48 will not change much during the period. A trough is sandwiched into between the high centers over the central states extending south into the southern Rockies. EPS H5 ensemble mean height/vorticity guidance does indicate some of this energy getting pinched off below the high center over Utah by Tuesday.