Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AND KSPS BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS 1500 FT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS 06-15Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FORM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL NOT PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS 06-15Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FORM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CAP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
issued a freeze warning for Bitterroot and Flathead/Mission Valleys given that some locations are already below freezing and latest model guidance is trending colder. In other years this would not be much of an impact, but this year some vegetation is blooming/sprouting earlier than normal and is thus more sensitive to temperatures this low. High pressure then starts moving in allowing for drying of the well-mixed atmosphere and partial clearing. Temps should fall into the lower to mid 20s tonight, but the duration of coldest temps is expected to be only 2-3 hours as some upper atmospheric moisture and clouds move in ahead of another front later.
1127 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE STEADILY INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS IOWA LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI NOW AND WE RESIDE IN AN AREA OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT. PUMPING IN COOLER AIR DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SUFFICIENT SATURATION TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE THE COOLER/DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL NOT BE AS DEEP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH THERMAL TROF DROPPING INTO THE STATE.
maybe some drizzle in the low clouds and such light flow in the boundary layer.
342 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Upper level troughing moving out of the Pacific Northwest will bring rainfall back to the Ohio Valley beginning Monday evening.
Conditions will trend drier through the night across southern zones, while an approaching trough will keep a chance of precipitation over the e-central Oregon and w-central mountains through the night. Scattered MVFR/IFR Snow showers will continue at higher elevations of central and southwest Idaho through Monday with passage of a weak trough.
Surface analysis depicts a weak high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico, while a stalled frontal boundary lies to the north of this ridge axis. Otherwise, expect clear to partly cloudy skies due to the passing high clouds, with light winds allowing temps to drop into the lower 70s for most areas. Some sheltered interior locations, mainly in the Lower Keys, will cool off a bit more into the upper 60s to near 70 by morning, as has already occurred at North Big Pine.
However, the upper-level trough is getting ahead of the surface feature, effectively cutting off any support for the already weak and disorganized surface convergence. The rest of the day looks benign, but temperatures will climb into the low 80s. Temperatures will continue trending upward through mid-week with high pressure re-taking control.
The LIFR to MVFR conditions Monday morning across the CWA are forecast to continue ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region during the day.
A cold front will approach KABI by mid afternoon, resulting in north winds of 8 to 12 knots.
Cold front to advance westward to approximately a KRTN-KTCC line by 18/00Z, continuing to spread west and southward thereafter with potential for MVFR cigs to develop behind the front.
1026 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2020 03z surface analysis had broad low across east central WY into south central SD with weak cold front behind it into western WY. The speed of the front will dictate how high temps rise in the southern half, with cooler highs certainly possible.
312 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain and snow late this afternoon and tonight - Brief shot of colder air mid week - Mostly dry this week -- Rain and snow late this afternoon and tonight -- The short range models have come into pretty good agreement regarding the evolution of the low coming out of the Plains and moving across Wisconsin. Snowfall won't be heavy over the southern cwa, but many times the lower snow totals lead to more travel impacts. Some freezing drizzle is also possible over the northern cwa after midnight as the DGZ becomes unsaturated as the low moves away.
dense sea fog developed and shifted into the lower bay and through GLS visibility on the webcams looked to have dropped to around 1/8 mile.
A cold front and yet another wave will move in this Monday evening, clipping the southwest part of North Dakota.
Even so the best chance of precip will not occur until the low-level winds turn se and ride up over the shallow cold air around or after 18Z/Wed. A secondary surge of cold shallow air is advertised on Thur which could briefly increase opportunity for low QPF/shallow moisture in frontal zone aloft? GFS/Canadian 85h-7h temps continue to be warmer than ECMWF and wintry precip potential continues to decrease.
328 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Marine - Rain and snow late this afternoon and tonight - Brief shot of colder air mid week - Mostly dry this week -- Rain and snow late this afternoon and tonight -- The short range models have come into pretty good agreement regarding the evolution of the low coming out of the Plains and moving across Wisconsin. Snowfall won't be heavy over the southern cwa, but many times the lower snow totals lead to more travel impacts. Some freezing drizzle is also possible over the northern cwa after midnight as the DGZ becomes unsaturated as the low moves away.
A cold front will move through the region tomorrow leading to a northerly wind shift eventually becoming more northeasterly tomorrow evening. The development of lee-side troughing to our northwest and the associated downslope winds will result in dry weather with breezy afternoon winds. Tomorrow, the upper level flow becomes more zonal ahead of a surface cold front expected to move through the CWA during the afternoon. The initial impact of the cold front will be a shift in wind direction to the north and an increase in wind speeds to 15 to 20 mph.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 53 63 46 54 / 10 60 80 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 48 63 45 51 / 10 30 80 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 49 62 43 52 / 10 20 80 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 43 59 42 49 / 10 10 80 60 30.
Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southward across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
611 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Aviation - Rain and snow late this afternoon and tonight - Brief shot of colder air mid week - Mostly dry this week -- Rain and snow late this afternoon and tonight -- The short range models have come into pretty good agreement regarding the evolution of the low coming out of the Plains and moving across Wisconsin. Snowfall won't be heavy over the southern cwa, but many times the lower snow totals lead to more travel impacts. Some freezing drizzle is also possible over the northern cwa after midnight as the DGZ becomes unsaturated as the low moves away. -- Brief shot of colder air mid week -- A secondary cold front will flow south behind the departing low, but there won't be much moisture with it.
With a good warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front, surface temperatures will once again warm into the mid-to-upper 50s this afternoon despite extensive cloud cover. In the wake of frontal passage, high pressure begins to settle in tonight. Temperatures will steadily crash into the low- to- middle 30s overnight as winds veer to the north and cold- air advection commences.
Prior to 18Z anticipate any precipitation to be in the form of freezing rain (or plain rain in the south) with a layer of 2C to 3C air below 850 mb. Fortunately, the freezing rain window should be fairly short before thermal profiles begin to cool by afternoon on the backside of the wave. Winds will diminish tonight as high pressure begins to build into the region.
This due to persistence of zonal flow aloft with a warm front being positioned just north of mid state being pushed northeastward as day progresses.
An upper level low pressure trough with embedded vorts this morning will move east today taking any light precipitation this morning with it. Otherwise, we will see a relaxing in the surface pressure gradient tonight with lighter winds before another short wave trough moves in from the northwest. This trough will be followed by an Arctic push/cold front late tonight and Tuesday. Highs today will be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s with colder highs on Tuesday mainly in the teens and lower 20s. This upper trough and surface front will also bring some light snow chances to central and north central sd late tonight into Tuesday. Mainly a dry period with a departing upper trough and approaching upper ridge.
931 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Weak high pressure will remain over the region today, with mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temps.
A cold front will bring another round of snow to parts of north- central and central Montana tonight into Tuesday. Colder temperatures can be expected through mid-week for much of the region behind the cold front. Weak instability continues under a passing trough axis due to colder air aloft, with occasionally intense bands of snow developing and moving southeast before weakening over time. A surface cold front pushes south to the Big Belt and Little Belt Mountains this afternoon and evening from Canada.
Another Warm Day and Cold Front Tonight. Let's enjoy one more day of unusually warm temperatures, before another cold front brings much colder temperatures. Then, another cold front late tonight will push into West Central Texas, from the north, and usher in another cold spell.
Otherwise, slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday then gradual warming towards the weekend. The weekend precipitation prospects have increased a bit, with the 00Z deterministic suite continuing to hold on to a closed low developing off the western seaboard. Ensemble means continue to indicate the depth of the low depictions may be a bit overdone and continue to suggest this may be elongating as it comes onshore, transitioning into an open wave over southern California. Additionally, GEFS IVT analysis shows the bulk of the Pacific moisture generated by this low evolution would be well south of the CWA further putting PoP chances for the weekend in doubt outside of the Colorado River Valley and Mohave County.
Upper level troughing moving out of the Pacific Northwest will bring rainfall back to the Ohio Valley beginning Monday evening. Expect to see increased cloud cover today and lowering cloud bases as a warm front drifts northward into central KY. Best rain chances begin tonight and become more widespread by early morning Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. A fast-moving low pressure system will be located over Lake Huron by 12 Tue, with a cold front extending SW through central KY. Any lingering low level moisture will remain in a layer much warmer than the DGZ, so thinking Tue night looks drier.
654 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 A low pressure system will approach the region today and a cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
The cold front will finally move through this evening, dropping overnight lows to a few degrees above normal Tue morning.
Winds beginning to transition to northerly as dry cold front slowly moves south through NorCal. Local gusts of around 40-50 mph will be possible in the favored windier spots near the mouth of the Feather River Canyon and over the ridges of southern Lake County.
Showers will briefly diminish early this evening before the next round of snow enters the area overnight tonight, directly behind the next cold front entering from the north. A cold front will bring another round of snow to parts of north- central and central Montana tonight into Tuesday. Colder temperatures can be expected through mid-week for much of the region behind the cold front. Weak instability continues under a passing trough axis due to colder air aloft, with occasionally intense bands of snow developing and moving southeast before weakening over time. A surface cold front pushes south to the Big Belt and Little Belt Mountains this afternoon and evening from Canada.
The next wave and cold front will move into the area late tonight and Tuesday.
Look for temperatures in the single digits either side of zero tonight with single digits for high temperatures on Tuesday as cold high pressure moves southeastward into the Northern Plains.
Issued SPS earlier this morning for Clearfield and adjacent counties due to combination of low visibility and freezing fog/black ice risk through the predawn hours. Expect fog and low clouds to dissipate through mid morning with temperatures rising above freezing/ending threat of black ice. High pressure will provide fair weather across CPA today before retreating into northern New England tonight. Snow may narrowly transition to a very short period of sleet/freezing rain before quickly going to rain in by midday Tuesday. Models show low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes into southern Ontario/Quebec, with the trailing cold front pushing southeast through CPA Tuesday PM.
High temperatures today will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 30s. Colder air then moves in behind a cold front with gradually falling temperatures through the daytimes hours on Tuesday. High pressure over the Great Lakes will shift east through the day in response to an 850-mb trough digging into the central US.
432 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 A low pressure system will approach the region today and a cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
These same areas may also be under the gun for patchy freezing fog, extending into the valleys of the southeast highlands.
A cold front will move east toward the MS River Valley today, and then cross the forecast area tonight. However, behind the front, temps will cool a bit each day Tue/Wed as Canadian high pressure presses southward into the northern Plains by Wed afternoon.
A cold front and yet another wave will move in this Monday evening, clipping the southwest part of North Dakota. Arctic high pressure surges in Tuesday night and appears to center over North Dakota during peak cooling hours.
Early this morning a mid-level trough over the Northern Plains was starting to dig southward toward the Central Plains, helping to usher some mid-level clouds over the area. At the surface, low pressure over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles was gradually progressing eastward, with areas of stratus over southern KS gradually spreading northward across the CWA. This cloud cover was helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer with readings only expected to drop into the mid/upper 30s by sunrise. Despite the AM cloud cover, southerly flow ahead of the front should aid in temperatures rising into the upper 40s/near 50 degrees by late morning with afternoon highs topping out in the low/mid 50s as cloud cover should quickly scatter out behind the exiting front.
Overnight tonight the cold front will continue to push south.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Large scale troughiness over the western US today will transition the mid level zonal flow pattern over the southern CONUS to more southwesterly by this afternoon. The heaviest precipitation tonight will be primarily over the south and east along and ahead of the warm front/baroclinic zone as it lifts to the northeast.
329 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Today and Tonight: Large scale troughiness over the western US today will transition the mid level zonal flow pattern over the southern CONUS to more southwesterly by this afternoon. The heaviest precipitation tonight will be primarily over the south and east along and ahead of the warm front/baroclinic zone as it lifts to the northeast.
Expect that to gradually change through the early morning, more specifically over the next few hours through about 12z-13z as moisture increases and deepens ahead of low pressure to our west. The best changes, area-wide, will likely come along the cold front that pushes through from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening.
An increasingly stable air mass will move into the interior west as high pressure aloft slowly expands east across the region through midweek.
448 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep, west-to-east-oriented tropical ridge extending from the eastern Pacific across Mexico and the Greater Antilles. A lower-tropospheric anticyclone was centered over the western North Atlantic with a ridge axis extending westward over the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. A few of these have been able to reach the Keys archipelago between the Seven Mile Bridge and Islamorada where only sprinkles of rain have fallen.
317 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Early this morning a mid-level trough over the Northern Plains was starting to dig southward toward the Central Plains, helping to usher some mid-level clouds over the area. At the surface, low pressure over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles was gradually progressing eastward, with areas of stratus over southern KS gradually spreading northward across the CWA. This cloud cover was helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer with readings only expected to drop into the mid/upper 30s by sunrise. Despite the AM cloud cover, southerly flow ahead of the front should aid in temperatures rising into the upper 40s/near 50 degrees by late morning with afternoon highs topping out in the low/mid 50s as cloud cover should quickly scatter out behind the exiting front.
Cooler air filters southward across the northern half of the forecast area today which will be reflected in the afternoon highs. Cooler air reaches the south on Tuesday with temperatures across the entire forecast area dropping close to 5 degrees as compared to today.
For Tuesday, a backdoor cold front will work its way in from the northeast.
High pressure will build over the Central California Interior over the next several days for continued dry weather.
Westerly to southwesterly winds today will shift to the northeast as a cold front begins to move into the region tonight, with FROPA expected at HOB/MAF around 18/06Z, and gradual south/west progression yielding FROPA at FST just beyond the end of the forecast period. Even so the best chance of precip will not occur until the low-level winds turn se and ride up over the shallow cold air around or after 18Z/Wed. A secondary surge of cold shallow air is advertised on Thur which could briefly increase opportunity for low QPF/shallow moisture in frontal zone aloft? GFS/Canadian 85h-7h temps continue to be warmer than ECMWF and wintry precip potential continues to decrease.
A cold front will approach KABI by the late afternoon resulting in winds becoming northwesterly and then northerly behind the frontal passage. Another Warm Day and Cold Front Tonight. Let's enjoy one more day of unusually warm temperatures, before another cold front brings much colder temperatures. Then, another cold front late tonight will push into West Central Texas, from the north, and usher in another cold spell.
Cloud deck will persist ahead of the cold front which will move into NE OK by late morning and through western AR by mid evening.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler (and a few degrees cooler than normals).
141 AM PST Mon Feb 17 2020 Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will prevail for much of the week.
Ridging in the mid to upper levels along with partly cloudy skies will allow the temperatures go reach the 80's across most of the CWA Monday and Tuesday before the arrival of the cold front.
441 AM MST Mon Feb 17 2020 Broad upper trof over North America will deepen briefly before being pushed east by ridge building across the west coast. Cold air will linger into midweek before ridge begins to bring warmer air back to the region. A more organized band is expected in the late afternoon and evening as the cold front drops south across the region. As the arctic high follows the cold front, chances of snow shift to the upslope areas of the southwest zones for Tuesday morning. Cold air lingers over eastern Montana as the high moves through the northern plains.
A few lingering stray showers are possible but overall rain chances are lower than the past few days as high pressure begins to build across the region. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s today, and even warmer on Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.
Flow around a weak low pressure area offshore will weaken further this afternoon with a sea breeze developing near the east coast.
Models bring one last short wave trough in from western Canada today before clearing tonight.
At the surface, a quasistationary cold front remains draped in and east/west orientation north of I40 with deep moisture to accompany, hence persistent mid/high ceilings amidst light vrb/nly winds. Overnight a warm front will slowly lift northward into the southern valley which will favor moisture advection and lowering cigs (MVFR/IFR) at CHA, eventually leading into -shra by late period. As for TYS/TRI, expecting some delay in the lowering of cigs and any precipitation arrival, yet still noted in the tafs. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 62 44 53 38 / 80 90 70 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 61 42 51 36 / 40 90 70 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 60 40 51 35 / 50 90 60 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 59 40 48 33 / 10 90 60 30 10.
1253 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 A low pressure system will approach the region today and a cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
230 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 Current activity is due to weak warm front that is lifting northeastward through forecast area, with best chances along and east of Mississippi River. Later this afternoon associated cold front will begin to slide through with widespread rain developing ahead of boundary.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The main event in this portion of the forecast will be the gradual passage of a weak cold front from north to south through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Isolated showers will accompany the frontal passage Tuesday night, along with cooler temperatures.
Forecast soundings show decent moisture in the low levels, but generally not within the dendritic growth zone, with dry air aloft from about -10C up. Going to be hard to get any snowfall with this setup, but cant rule out a trace to a few tenths given the temperature profile and moisture in the low levels. Probably going to be "socked-in" all day Tuesday as high pressure builds in over the Central Plains, and temperatures will likely have a large spread across the Panhandles from upper 30s in the northwest to lower 50s in the southeast.
Here are two factors favoring this: 1) Modifying the 12z KEY sounding for a high in the mid 80s shows that a parcel could overcome the two lowest stable layers and convectively mix to near 10,000 feet, and 2) the weaker low-level flow could easily allow a surface boundary to develop just owing to the 8-degree difference in water temperature between the Straits and Gulfside waters of the Lower Keys.
many areas will struggle to get out of the teens west of the Laramie Range with areas east struggling to get to freezing.