Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Proximity of the departing ridge with light/calm winds and clear sky across southeast Kansas should allow for coolest mins there with better frost potential, so have issued advisory through early Thursday morning.
Once this upper level cold front moves southward through the rest of our forecast area the skies will clear and low temperatures will cool into the 40s.
839 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 Benign weather conditions continue across South Florida tonight with high pressure still in place.
Low level pressure gradient is tightening across our area between the ridge axis to our east and an approaching cold front now over the Northern Plains. Only high clouds are increasing over Northern Michigan well in advance of the cold front.
Northeasterly winds 5-10 kt can be expected as a ridge of high pres extends west to east from the southern plains into the lower MS valley. /issued 330 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016/ High pressure will settle in over the next few days. Temperatures will continue to be a little above normal, especially on the highs.
608 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will then provide mostly dry weather over the lower terrain through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures. Cooler and drier weather is forecast through the weekend. This has started to wind down the sprinkles and drizzle of earlier, however that will likely continue another couple of hours in and near the ridges. Fries Upper level heights are progged to slightly rise given the development of the ridge across the central U.
902 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A weak trough of colder air aloft will maintain shallow, non- precipitating clouds through the first half of tonight. Cooler conditions are in store for the second half of the week and lasting into the upcoming weekend. Widespread and relatively shallow bkn-ovc strato cu lingered this evening as a thermal trough centered around 850 mb was sliding SE across the state. Weak ridging at surface between the retreating low and the approaching cold front. No rain and a nice pre-cold frontal day. This will act to suppress the recent persistent upper ridging and lead to general troffiness over the eastern third of the conus. Upper ridge may try to rebuild northward over the weekend.
1005 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A cold front will push offshore tonight, followed by high pressure through the end of the week.
Upper ridge that has been placed over the central and northern Rockies the last several days will get flattened tonight. As the wave crosses southern Canada tonight, a cold front will swing through our forecast area late, with arrival time for southern Montana being after midnight. This will provide a cooler day with high temperatures about 10 degrees lower than today.
Drier air continues to filter into the region behind a recent cold front so this will preclude the chance of fog through the morning hours. /issued 300 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016/ A general area of UA troughiness that was once stretched from the Four-State region to across west Texas and northern MX earlier this morning, was responsible for the area-wide low-mid level cloudiness and some -DZ/-RA this morning. Late this aftn, the UA trough showed signs of closing off whilst also retrograding a bit thus pushing farther away from the region. As such the low clouds have been slow to deteriorate, though with northerly sfc-700 mb winds infiltrating drier air, clear skies have commenced across southwest AR, southeast OK and portions of east TX and northwest LA.
819 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2016 Cold front still progged to move through the Denver area 16-17z Thursday morning. Another night clear skies and light drainage winds, as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain over the state. For tomorrow, a dry cold front is expected to move through late in the morning with northerly winds and then cooler temperatures. Mountain areas will remain under the influence of the light winds aloft associated with the upper ridge over the region. High temperatures are expected to be some 10 degrees cooler than today, but still 10 degrees or so warmer than normal.
1008 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure building in tonight and Thursday will keep weather conditions quiet across the region.
624 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 As a low pressure trough over VA/NC moves farther east, VFR ceilings will likely persist at TRI overnight, while TYS and CHA will be clear for most of the night. Smoke from wildfires in NC should not impact visibilities at the TAF sites tomorrow with the low level winds from the north.
917 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A weak trough of colder air aloft will maintain shallow, non- precipitating clouds through the first half of tonight. Cooler conditions are in store for the second half of the week and lasting into the upcoming weekend. Widespread and relatively shallow bkn-ovc strato cu lingered this evening as a thermal trough centered around 850 mb was sliding SE across the state. Weak ridging at surface between the retreating low and the approaching cold front. No rain and a nice pre-cold frontal day. This will act to suppress the recent persistent upper ridging and lead to general troffiness over the eastern third of the conus. Upper ridge may try to rebuild northward over the weekend.
716 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will settle across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee river valleys tonight. The high will move toward the Gulf Coast on Thursday while a cold front approaches the region from the northwest.
647 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure building in tonight and Thursday will keep weather conditions quiet across the region.
529 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure over eastern Kansas/northwest Missouri will continue drifting southeast tonight. The ridge axis will slide over the eastern Ozarks during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning bringing calm wind and a clear sky resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. More widespread frost is likely over the eastern Ozarks where temperatures will be near freezing, so the frost advisory still looks good. High pressure will move south on Thursday across eastern Texas.
622 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and mid Mississippi valleys will build northeast overnight into the north country, and will remain over the region through Thursday.
622 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A cold front will cross the area this evening followed by high pressure through the end of the week.
537 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure from the west will build toward the region overnight then cross the region on Thursday.
501 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will move over the region by Thu morning.
Mostly clear skies abound, aside from a few higher clouds streaming overhead, with the cold front that passed through the region yesterday now well south of the local CWFA. Winds will diminish--though not completely decouple--overnight as the high centered over the central Plains builds eastward. Patchy frost is still possible elsewhere, but it will have the highest coverage across the state line. Thursday will be a near-repeat of Wednesday, but perhaps a degree or two warmer as the airmass in place moderates.
715 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 Broken high clouds prevailed over the forecast area this afternoon with mild temperatures in the low 60s north to mid 70s central. especially the Rough Ridge Fire in western Fannin County. A large high pressure system over the mid MS river valley will continue to dominate the southeast U.
Cooler temps expected tomorrow but still above seasonal norms. Latest CONSSHORT minimum temperatures were two to three degrees warmer than forecast. and given sky/wind forecast, cooler MIN T in inherited forecast seems more reasonable and will lower (from CONSSHORT guidance) overnight hourly temps. FROPA will push across the area in the early morning with winds turning to the northwest with cooler blyr air filtering down in its wake.
843 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will settle across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee river valleys tonight. The high will move toward the Gulf Coast on Thursday while a cold front approaches the region from the northwest.
It will continue to be warm and muggy overnight with the high dewpoints and increasing clouds. Upper trough over area over the weekend.
Upper high over the Great Basin persists, keeping light N- NW flow aloft over the CWA. Temps have risen into the 90s to around 100 F across the plains, into the 80s to near 90 F for the high valleys, and into the 70s for the mt passes. Max temps tomorrow are expected to be slightly cooler for the high valleys, but anywhere from 5-15 degrees cooler across the plains due to a cool morning with a slower start to the heating.
413 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A strong cell of high pressure north of the Bahamas will bring easterly flow to the region through this weekend.
Also lowered the high temperature for areas where the rains look to continue for much of the day and with thick cloud cover. The Four State Region will be in the bottom of an upper trough of low pressure between two upper level ridges of high pressure/ one ridge center over the Southwest U S and the other off the Florida, JGeorgia, and South Carolina coast.
318 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level low pressure will spread southeast across the plains tonight, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas mainly west of the James Valley. Highs Friday will range from the mid 70s in northwest Iowa to the lower 80s along and west of the James Valley.
The upper ridge tries to build back some, but not enough really and there is still some hint of an inverted trough proximate to the region. However, water vapor imagery is showing the upper trough closer to the Bay of Campeche, which puts our area on the wrong side of the upper trough/TUTT. With drier air and lighter winds, then should see slightly cooler temperatures Friday night than tonight (or this morning).
138 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley region today and tonight.
408 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly moves S toward the Downeast coast. Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday night.
In general, rain chances are higher along the Highway 82 corridor due to this possibility and the persistent shear axis.
/issued 357 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016/ A deep layered area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast of Florida continues to be the major synoptic feature late in the week.
116 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. Boundary layer temperatures along with local scheme suggests it will be warmer today than yesterday by 1 to 2 degrees. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. Clear skies remain across the region as the upper level ridge remains in place.
An inverted trough over western Wisconsin will shift south today, while high pressure over south central Canada will slowly approach the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region. The high pressure will build into the Northland tonight and Friday, leading to clearer skies. The quiet period continues as an area of high pressure will dominate the weather across the forecast area through the weekend.
618 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the lower lakes and Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front helping to ignite some showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure ridge axis lays across central Florida. In addition, the low level cap is forecast to weaken.
621 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. increased low-level moisture and weak trough/frontal boundary in the vicinity should be a much better focus for convection than the area has seen in awhile.
207 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal boundary will produce heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations today and tonight.
Short wave is now entering western Middle Tennessee with a mid level trough back in Missouri.
1235 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Rain chances look on target today with both an upper level disturbance (located currently over central MO) and a surface cold front (currently located from east-central IL thru STL metro and into south-central MO) providing plenty of focusing mechanism with the weak CINH, moderately moist and unstable environment in place. Most of the convection was southeast of the forecast area, associated with a slow moving, compact upper level low/vorticity maximum. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterdays highs, maybe a degree or two cooler. GKS Convection tonight may be mainly during the evening hours, with slightly cooler low temperatures due to potentially less cloud cover. Temperatures on Friday should be slightly cooler due to the increased cloud cover and potentially better coverage of precipitation.
06 Weather map shows weakening pressure gradient over the NW Gulf as high pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf. Low pressure trof axis aloft much less defined this morning, generally over SE TX/LA. This cause the mid/upper trof weaker and less defined, but displaced further north today, and a weak sfc trof over the arklatex expected to generate convection later this morning. DML SE to S winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft expected today and Friday, diminishing a bit by the weekend as as high pressure becomes established over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today as general low pressure weakness aloft remains over the region.
High pressure remains in control this afternoon and is now centered over southern Nevada. Latest model predictions point to a more significant threat of storms Friday through the weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts a bit to the east.
Strong high pressure over northwestern Arizona will weaken as low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain from the Grand Canyon and Flagstaff southeast to the New Mexico border.
Highs will reach into the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the middle 60s.
415 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Low pressure developing along the mid-Atlantic coast will spread showers across northeast Pennsylvania tonight and Friday morning.
Medium Focus for shra/tsra has been inverted trough with mid level cyclonic flow and embedded vorticity maxima. However the GFS shows more development across southern WI with a hint of an inverted trough and the better mid level vorticity. LLVL rh progs and MOS still not supportive of seeing much clearing given the cyclonic regime and low level thermal trough.
In the Middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available ir imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm detail a well aligned middle and upper anticyclone centered near 31 North 75 West. Out to the west of that feature, the axis of a inverted upper level trough is aligned along the 93rd meridian and bisects the Western Gulf of Mexico.
235 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge will continue over the Southeastern states and offshore through tonight. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. An upper level ridge over the area will shift slightly east through Friday generally promoting hot and dry weather.
346 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the lower lakes and Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front helping to ignite some showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, expect the low stratus deck between 1500 to 2500 feet to continue through the period.
135 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend.
Upper trough and weaknesses between ridges is slowly advancing eastward toward the forecast area. /Issued 654 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/ An upper level trough will take shape across the region for the next several days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, with lows hanging out in the low/mid 70s. Towards the very end of the forecast, the ridge currently located near the 4 corners area will begin to build eastward which would lead to a slight increase in temps and decrease in overall rain chances.
Upper level trough and very humid air mass are expected to produce showers and thunderstorms especially late this afternoon through just after midnight.
309 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level low with moist and unstable air pose a threat for flash flooding into tonight. Upper level low with widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue eastward across the area later this afternoon and tonight. Although clods will again hold temps down in the lower 80s Friday. Upper trough over area over the weekend.
Otherwise, sunny and hot conditions will persist as high pressure remains over the bulk of the Northern Rockies. High temps will remain warm over the next few days as high pressure continues.
556 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level low with moist and unstable air pose a threat for flash flooding into tonight. Upper level low with widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue eastward across the area later this afternoon and tonight. Although clods will again hold temps down in the lower 80s Friday. Upper trough over area over the weekend.
and again overnight as an upper trough approaches. Current sfc chart and regional observations showing large area of high pressure over central Canada and the northern Plains. The latest short term model data continues to push high pressure into the Great Lakes through the overnight period. a trough associated with a 500mb low over Quebec. 850/500mb qvectors showing good convergence over portions of lower Michigan this evening into the overnight hours in advance of approaching upper trough. Current sat and radar data showing some rain showers occurring over the Dakotas in vicinity of this approaching upper trough.
326 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure will nose its way across the forecast area tonight and Friday.
Broad ridge remains in place across Great Basin today with weakly northwest flow aloft over SE Idaho. Further south, monsoonal moisture slowly working north through the Great Basin around the high but convection so far limited to southern portions of Great Basin.
212 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Short wave embedded in mid and upper trough will keep showers and a few thunderstorms going tonight. Surface front off to our northwest will turn stationary on Friday and along with the Upper trough will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend.
252 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. Boundary layer temperatures along with local scheme suggests it will be warmer today than yesterday by 1 to 2 degrees. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. increased low-level moisture and weak trough/frontal boundary in the vicinity should be a much better focus for convection than the area has seen in awhile.
645 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. Orgnl Disc: Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly moves S toward the Downeast coast. Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday night.
Otherwise, another sunny and warm day across the area with highs similar to maybe a degree or two warmer for inland areas.
Aloft our region remains in a broad H5 trough. With the lower troposphere remaining saturated combined with plenty of instability in the warm sector, a series of upper level disturbances passing across the area will generate multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Timing of these disturbances varies per model so trying to pin down the highest probabilities is difficult at this time.
Additional heating will promote scattered shower and thunderstorm development (with best chances this afternoon north of Highway 59) as temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s.
432 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South- Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift southward into southern New England.
A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure over the southwestern CONUS and the Great Basin will continue to be the prevailing weather feature for our area the next few days.
/issued 321 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/ Persistence prevails today as West TX and SE NM remain under NE flow aloft with an upper ridge centered to the NW. Best chances look to be across the Davis Mountains and east through the lower Trans Pecos however pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is fairly difficult at this time. MOS guidance has been too cool the last few days so will stay on the warmer side with forecasted highs in the mid to upper 90s. The upper ridge begins to expand east into the Southern Plains Friday through the weekend, ending rain chances for most locations.
This still puts southeast ridges and portion of northern West Virginia in line for possible heavier rainfall in thunderstorms, but it appears bulk of stronger re-development may be east of the ridges late afternoon and evening. Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the low and aforementioned trough.
isolated to widely scattered) as there isn't any significant lifting mechanism expected (outside of the higher terrain). With the NW flow in place, storms should mainly be confined along and SE of the higher terrain and mainly across central Montana. TSRA should generally be confined along and to the SE of the higher terrain.
/issued 415 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge remains centered across the Great Basin region, while West Central Texas remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
Still a small threat of flood problems this evening south of the Mason Dixon line in the higher elevations, otherwise meso-scale models agree severe threat or flood threat will be south and east of the ridges, where watches have been issued. Another humid day Friday with scattered showers and storms as weak impulses move through a developing eastern mid level trough.
430 AM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Dry westerly flow across the state will bring warmer temperatures and dry weather across northeast Colorado today. Temperatures will be around yesterday's levels if not a couple degrees warmer. A fairly decent upper trough is progged to push across the CWA Friday.