Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper trough will move in though, and this will push the front through the remainder of the Medford forecast area tonight into Tuesday. However, the upper trough will linger over the area into Wednesday night, and this will support shower activity over the area until then, along with isolated thunderstorms mostly from the Cascades west and Siskiyous north as well as the coastal waters. The showers will end Wednesday night as the trough departs to the east and a ridge builds into the west coast.
Low stratus will keep IFR going into the early morning before skies quick clear out as high pressure builds into the area. With no cold air pivoting into the area behind this system, temperatures will climb well into the 60s to near 70 as upper ridging begins to expand into the area.
633 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Satellite imagery shows some mid-level clouds moving across Upper MI early this morning as a low pressure continues traveling east over Hudson Bay. Expect temps to drop into the low 30s before sunrise across the interior areas, with a few spots possibly dipping into the upper 20s as skies clear out. However, a pattern shift will be emerging from mid-week onward as ridging/high pressure moves E in the CONUS and troughing/low pressure deepens in the W, extending down from Canada.
1014 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Low pressure moves off the coast today. High pressure will gradually build across the region for the remainder of the week bringing dry and mild conditions. By then, the next upper low will be heading into the lower Ohio Valley spreading mid and high clouds back in late tonight. Forecast soundings into Wednesday and models are dry in the low levels, so aside from possible sprinkle, not seeing any real chance of measurable rainfall Wednesday with this system just a cloudier day than Tuesday for most. Should be milder today than Wednesday, though Wednesday still close to normal, but concerned it may be cooler than guidance and undercut guidance slightly given extent of clouds and getting a lower sun angle. Wednesday will see 60s for most, with 50s in the some of the higher elevations.
06Z surface data has high pressure from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.
528 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough tracking NE over northern OH, but enough moisture was left behind to allow for extensive mid-level clouds across much of the area. Thereafter, a beautiful day will be ahead for the area as weak ridging overhead leads to warming temperatures and dry conditions.
Snow levels appear to be between 5200 and 5700 feet currently, they should maintain this level until a strong Pacific Cold Front passes later this evening. As the cold front passes snow levels will crash to valley floors and precipitation should change over to a brief period of snow in Western Montana and in all but the lowest portions of north- central Idaho. Additionally, the models have been very consistent in spinning up a mid-level low pressure system. An area west of this low pressure will likely see a period of heavier precipitation Wednesday morning around commute time.
High temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s, just like yesterday. Low temperatures will therefore be a few degrees warmer than this morning, generally in the mid 50s.
A deep trough will form over the western United States, and this will cause ridging farther to the east.
High temperatures Wednesday will be slightly warmer, ranging from 77 to 82 degrees.
956 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Weak low pressure will cross the region today.
629 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Weak low pressure will cross the region today.
The temperature forecast today and Wednesday leans on the warmer guidance blend for highs in the 70s. The very dry air moving in should support the cooler lows in place across wrn Nebraska. This forecast is warmer by day than the 50th percentile of the NBM and cooler by night. An upper level low along the coast of British Columbia will drop south through the wrn U.
Moderate cumulus with rather low bases given the near-1,000 ft surface LCL and some sprinkles were over the lower Keys. 5 inches, withe higher moisture mostly paralleling the north Cuba coast.
626 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Cold front moves east of the forecast area today, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. PWs are slowly creeping down across the region as a "cold front" pushes through and ushers in dry high pressure. This will help to clear out the low clouds by mid- late morning across much of the area.
611 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today and tonight) Broad upper troughing will pull away east of the region today leaving subsidence and short wave ridging in its wake which will in turn provide mostly clear skies. A deepening upper level trough in the western CONUS today and tonight will begin to draw low level moisture northward. The deep upper troughing in the western US will create surface lee troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico.
A low-level perturbation/inverted trough moves westward into the FL Big Bend/I-75 corridor on Wed.
Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal this afternoon with highs in the low/mid 70s.
A filling upper low will cross the region today and result in isolated/spotty showers, mainly in the far east with assist from the terrain. Winds beginning to shift to a more west-northwest trajectory will add to the low level moisture into the evening and keeping cloud cover in place. Strong upper ridging will build across the eastern CONUS the remainder of the week which will maintain dry conditions with an increasing trend in temperatures.
Warmer temperatures are forecast for tonight as a light southerly wind prevails. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Wednesday will be a transition day across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with high pressure in place at the surface and aloft.
1253 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today and tonight) Broad upper troughing will pull away east of the region today leaving subsidence and short wave ridging in its wake which will in turn provide mostly clear skies. A deepening upper level trough in the western CONUS today and tonight will begin to draw low level moisture northward. The deep upper troughing in the western US will create surface lee troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico.
Highs tomorrow will range in the mid-70s to low-80s, with lows tonight and tomorrow night ranging in the low to mid-50s.
249 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 An upper level trough will exit the district late this afternoon and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
High pressure will gradually build across the region for the remainder of the week bringing dry and mild conditions. Still dealing with lingering moisture over the mountains with potential for isolated showers along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Dry weather continues, slightly warmer on Wednesday. HREF guidance breaks up the low clouds into the evening and overnight hours. Overnight tonight an upper trough currently centered over Texas will translate up here, spreading high clouds over much of the area. No precipitation is expected with this low passage, so expect the dry weather to continue. Temperatures tomorrow will be roughly the same today, maybe a degree or two warmer.
302 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure builds in from the west Wednesday and the settles just offshore through the weekend.
Persistent southerly flow is occurring in the lower atmosphere with efficient boundary layer mixing this afternoon - aiding in the unusually warm weather for November 1st. Water vapor imagery shows a disturbance well south of the CWA and unsettled conditions across the western CONUS associated with a digging mid-level trough that is set to bring us some needed rainfall in a few days.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SW flow aloft will be over the region today as upper trough moves inland from the Pacific. A cold front moves through the forecast area late tonight and during the day on Wednesday.
155 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 An upper level trough will exit the district late this afternoon and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
Overnight lows will be limited to the low to mid 50s although cooler temps are possible in higher elevations.
217 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 An upper level trough will exit the district late this afternoon and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
This low will bring light accumulations of mountain snow, light rain to the valley floors (under 0. The upper level trough sweeps through during the day Thu.
343 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will build into the region settling over the area overnight. Dry weather to continue Wednesday night with mid level ridging beginning to build into the area. This combined with mid level ridging will lead to dry and very warm conditions.
High pressure builds in through the end of the week, then drifts offshore over the weekend. Also, patchy fog will remain a possibility until the passage of a cold front later this afternoon. Drier conditions are expected tonight as high pressure starts to build back into the region. Dry conditions continue into the middle of the week as high pressure remains across the region. As the high builds offshore over the weekend, return flow will set up over the area with an increase in humidity. A cold front attempts to impact the cwa on Mon, but opposing sly flow and the building upr ridge could keep it relegated to areas north of the cwa.
130 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure over the Eastern United States will break down as a weak trough of low pressure moves eastward from the Central United States into the Eastern United States. This will allow for a weak cold front over Northern Florida to move southward into Central Florida.
146 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Disturbance over E TX will continue to push into the Lower MS River Valley by tonight then exit the region on Wed. Rest of the area will be a bit warmer than this morning.
233 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Upper level trough along the west coast will deepen as it slowly progresses eastward. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough will strengthen through tonight and Wednesday. With an increase in flow aloft, winds will be stronger tomorrow, especially over the higher terrain and parts of the eastern plains.
This will yield very light flow throughout the column and dry air in the lower levels. Highs should range from the mid/upper 60s in the Bluegrass to the lower 70s in west-central KY.
(This evening through Wednesday) Wednesday will be similar to today with warm, above-average temperatures in the low to mid 70s deg F. The primary difference is that southerly winds will increase as lee cyclogenesis occurs in response to a trough approaching the southwest United States.
Associated cloud cover streaming across the area from the southwest will persist through at least the first half of tonight, but should begin to clear up after 00z as the main trough axis lifts away from the local area. In these areas lows will generally be in the low t mid 60s. Afternoon highs are expected to be a little warmer tomorrow than today, rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s most places.
(The rest of today ) Southerly winds returning today as high pressure to the east retreats while low pressure to the west begins to deepen.
High temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon, just like yesterday, while moist southerly flow will take over tonight and increase clouds again mainly from I-20 and southward. Therefor, overnight lows will likely be a few degrees warmer than this morning given the heavier cloud cover, generally in the mid 50s.
Windy and warm today ahead of approaching surface cold front and supporting upper trough. The cold front should reach the OR/ID border 6 PM MDT with widespread rain and snow along and behind it, but decreasing in the Snake Basin tonight due to shadowing by the Owyhee Mountains.
Tonight and Wednesday Mostly clear skies and upper level ridging will provide mostly clear skies with just a few high cirrus clouds at times through Wednesday. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Main focus is on upper level trough which will slowly traverse the Plains and pivot into the western Great Lakes late this week and into the weekend. Coinciding surface cold front will slowly move across Wisconsin, likely stalling out for a time.
Winds are out of the south and gusting up to 25 mph under the upper level ridge.
143 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will begin to build into the region today, eventually settling over the area tonight. Any fog may could be fairly slow to mix out on Wednesday morning with high pressure overhead but eventually should lift by mid day. This combined with mid level ridging will lead to dry and very warm conditions.
Surface ridging was noted across the western North Atlantic, with troughing extending from the frontal zone just off the mid Atlantic coast and along the southeast U. This set-up can favor some insolation- induced trouging across the Florida peninsula, and may be why easterly surface winds are currently hugging the lower part of the 10 to 15 mph (or knot) range.
However some increase in clouds is occurring across the northwest as low level moisture is still moving through the Ohio Valley and into our northern sections with flow around upper low to the northeast over the eastern Great Lakes. Dry for the period with above normal temperatures Discussion: Short wave ridging will build across the area today, then a weak upper low will approach tonight. Tonight will see an increase in high clouds as the upper low approaches but it will remain dry with above normal temperatures.
Upper level southwest flow will be dominant over the region through the period as a trough digs down the west coast tonight and Wednesday, then begins to slide eastward Wednesday night. At the surface, the CWA will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west tonight and Wednesday. These southerly winds will continue to usher warmer air into the region, with well above normal temperatures expected on Wednesday.
156 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Satellite imagery shows some mid-level clouds moving across Upper MI early this morning as a low pressure continues traveling east over Hudson Bay. Expect temps to drop into the low 30s before sunrise across the interior areas, with a few spots possibly dipping into the upper 20s as skies clear out. However, a pattern shift will be emerging from mid-week onward as ridging/high pressure moves E in the CONUS and troughing/low pressure deepens in the W, extending down from Canada.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will be northwest to north of the region through Tonight.
Quiescent weather will continue as an upper lvl shrtwv trof continues to depart into the southeastern U. with weak ridging aloft moving overhead.
Although the low level wind fields will not support much of a moisture feed off the lakes into Se Mi overnight, optimal radiational cooling and lingering shallow boundary layer moisture will prove effective in the development of radiational fog late tonight thru Wed morning. With no cold air pivoting into the area behind this system, temperatures will climb well into the 60s to near 70 as upper ridging begins to expand into the area.
Quiet otherwise into tonight and Wednesday as a weak upper level trough bypasses well south, and ridging continues to build over the Great lakes.
247 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Cold front moves east of the forecast area today, bringing drier air back into the region through the rest of the week. Short wave trough moving across Virginia/North Carolina this afternoon will move off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. Weak short wave ridge in its wake across the area. Another upper low over the central and southern Plains will lift northeast to the Mid Mississippi Valley by late tonight. Mid and high clouds will increase overnight ahead of the Midwest Upper low as suggested by the HREF. Global models have trended a bit less amplified with the upper low that will move across the northern portion of the forecast area tomorrow. Mid level clouds pass over the forecast a with temperatures maybe a degree or two cooler compared to today.
323 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will build into the region from the northwest tonight with skies gradually clearing. Current radar shows a few returns, but overall dry conditions have prevailed this afternoon and will continue to do so through the next 36 hours as high pressure builds over the region. In contrast, HRRR/GFS soundings show the opposite with subsidence aloft drying out the low levels with clearing skies through the night. Dry and mild weather will continue through the short term period as we remain on the northern periphery of high pressure centered off the New England coast.
Slightly cooler temperatures and isolated showers may move back in for later in the weekend as a cold front approaches from the west. As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: An upper low currently centered over the southern Great Plains is forecast to move to the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, resulting in the short wave ridge currently over our area being displaced by a trough. Despite the resultant increase in vertical velocity, surface ridging dominating much of the Southeast will significantly limit the degree of low level moisture. Some guidance sources are allowing a few showers to develop across the high terrain by the end of the day Wed, but this seems a bit of a stretch and PoPs will be kept below 20% through the period.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Weak high pressure is circulating almost directly above Middle Tennessee this afternoon just as the upper ridge has already slid off to the east. An upper trough will ride up the southwest flow aloft during the next 24 hours and keep widespread ceilings locked in for tonight and much of tomorrow, even as temperatures continue to gradually warm.
1202 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (The rest of today ) Southerly winds returning today as high pressure to the east retreats while low pressure to the west begins to deepen.
High temperatures today and tomorrow will top out in the 70s with morning lows in the lower 50s with patchy fog possible tomorrow morning as well.
224 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 20z surface analysis had low over western MT with lee trough into eastern CO. Water vapour loop had upper trough of interest off the northwest CONUS coast with upper ridge over the northern Plains. Evolution of upper trough main forecast concern.
1235 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper trough moving over the area this morning with high pressure briefly building in this afternoon. Will have a large trough moving ashore the West Coast today and progressing east Wednesday with heights beginning to fall ahead of it. Temperatures should be near normal again today in the low to mid 70s warming a few degrees into the mid 70s to around 80 Wednesday. Lows tonight in the 40s for the cooler locations and 50s elsewhere.
Meanwhile, an incoming thermal ridge will amplify and center over the area tonight before gradually drifting eastwards during the day Wednesday. At the start of the period, a trough will be in the process of breaking down the ridge mentioned in the short term discussion. The trough and associated surface cold frontal boundary will bring much colder air into the region resulting in more November-like temperatures.
1206 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough tracking NE over northern OH, but enough moisture was left behind to allow for extensive mid-level clouds across much of the area. Thereafter, a beautiful day will be ahead for the area as weak ridging overhead leads to warming temperatures and dry conditions.
Otherwise, expect a relatively tranquil night, with lows falling into the low to mid 50s.
1202 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Weak low pressure will cross the region today.
546 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 An upper level trough will push east of Pennsylvania this evening.
That said, some of the typically cooler locations have seen readings fall off quickly again this evening, and as such, have lowered overnight lows some in those places overnight. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Wednesday will be a transition day across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with high pressure in place at the surface and aloft.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s possible in northern Lake and western Volusia Counties.
Mid to upper level ridging will build on Wednesday and should limit rain activity. 5 inches, with the highest amounts located over areas south of I-10. Otherwise, the moisture will help to at least bring us partly cloudy skies and contribute to the warmer temperatures.
A weak cold front will move slowly southward through the area over the next couple of days with just a small chance of showers mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
High pressure will gradually build across the region for the remainder of the week bringing dry and mild conditions. Increasing upper level moisture from a weather disturbance over the lower Mississippi Valley will spread high clouds into the area from the southwest overnight.
556 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Wednesday will be similar to today with warm, above-average temperatures in the low to mid 70s deg F. The primary difference is that southerly winds will increase as lee cyclogenesis occurs in response to a trough approaching the southwest United States.
448 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 20z surface analysis had low over western MT with lee trough into eastern CO. Water vapour loop had upper trough of interest off the northwest CONUS coast with upper ridge over the northern Plains. Evolution of upper trough main forecast concern.
744 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure will build into the region settling over the area overnight. Dry weather to continue Wednesday night with mid level ridging beginning to build into the area. This combined with mid level ridging will lead to dry and very warm conditions.
Showers are widespread across the area this evening as a cold front moves east. Generally VFR conditions, except IFR/MVFR with mtn obscuration in rain and snow showers associated with a passing cold front.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to the clouds and a slightly enhanced southwesterly gradient, but overall the forecast is right on track with only a couple slight adjustments. Upper level trough along the west coast will deepen as it slowly progresses eastward. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough will strengthen through tonight and Wednesday. With an increase in flow aloft, winds will be stronger tomorrow, especially over the higher terrain and parts of the eastern plains.
443 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 20z surface analysis had low over western MT with lee trough into eastern CO. Water vapour loop had upper trough of interest off the northwest CONUS coast with upper ridge over the northern Plains. Evolution of upper trough main forecast concern.
550 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022 Upper level trough along the west coast will deepen as it slowly progresses eastward. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough will strengthen through tonight and Wednesday. With an increase in flow aloft, winds will be stronger tomorrow, especially over the higher terrain and parts of the eastern plains.
640 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 High pressure builds in from the west Wednesday and then settles just offshore through the weekend.
A trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest, which will expand precipitation into north-central Idaho and western Montana this evening and overnight. Most of the precipitation is expected to start as rain, but a cold front passage from the west and from the north will quickly lower snow levels to most valley floors.
(Now through Wednesday) Despite the cloud cover, conditions will remain dry through Wednesday as a weak upper level trough moves across Tennessee tonight. High pressure will quickly build in its place as a re- enforcing punch of drier air moves into the area on Wednesday. Fog should not be an issue tonight given the drier air moving in and lingering cloud cover as the trough lifts out of the area. Temperatures will be cooler tonight with lows tonight in the mid 50s.