Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
729 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A large upper level low pressure system will keep unsettled conditions over the area through early this week. Low pressure in the lower Ohio valley is producing enough isentropic lift to generate this activity while the secondary low near Delmarva becomes the dominate feature by this evening. Will continue with chc pops through the late night period as the upper level trof moves into the region. Upper level trof deepens and cuts off over the forecast area then drops south during the afternoon. Upper level low will continue dropping south into VA/NC area.
Otherwise, expect lows to be mainly in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Adjusted the temperatures to account for the warmer values. will likely be a little warmer.
Large trough sprawled across the western US will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A subtle cold front associated with the trough will brush the area late tonight towards morning. The low center that was to our west today will shift northeast through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, with below normal highs. Nighttime lows Sunday night will also be below normal and quite a bit cooler than tonight's. Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the period. Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the mean trough during the second half of the week. Low level wind shear is also possible late tonight as the lower valleys decouple.
LN (Issued 607 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016) (Issued 218 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that the secondary cold front was moving through the forecast area with mid to upper 50s dewpoints already advecting southward through southern middle Tennessee.
Upper trough continues to slowly move eastward to the east coast tonight becoming a closed low over the Mid Atlantic region late Sunday. Weak frontal boundary over the Deep South holds in place as surface storm system intensifies over the Carolinas while weak high pressure holds through the FL Straits keeping westerly low level flow in place for warm and muggy overnight conditions in place. High pressure and drier airmass to build into the region late Sunday while daytime temp hold around seasonal normals.
1036 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure will move further away from the area tonight. High pressure will build in through the first part of the week, bringing drier conditions with warming temperatures. The upper low becomes more broad but continues to pull slowly east as an area of high pressure works into the west. Period begins with a H5 ridge over the lower Ohio Valley, which extends up into the Great Lakes.
1216 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. No appreciable forecast changes were needed as deep low pressure matures over the Northeastern U. A secondary surge of mid-level cold air is projected over the Upper Ohio Valley Region today as that upper trough entrenches.
but there is increasing low level shear (0-1km) values of 20-30 kts by 00z and 30-35 kts by 03z as the low level jet strengthens. There is still at least some uncertainty as to if there will be enough forcing in the warm sector with the upper trough still so far to the west for thunderstorms to actually develop Sunday evening, but if they do develop keep an eye out for severe weather.
Upper ridge axis remains to the west today with lower cloud continuing to push east on a shallow area of westerly winds. Models are also consistent with isentropic upglide diminishing overnight as the ridge axis moves overhead. Stronger lower-level southerly winds tonight into Sunday bring warmer air in, so though cloud may again be persistent, expect highs several degrees warmer than today.
A broad upper level low pressure system will remain over the western states well into the upcoming week. This low pressure will maintain periods of unsettled spring like conditions across the region throughout the week. Water Vapor loop shows a broad closed low over the Pacific Northwest. The upper low currently centered across eastern Oregon will maintain a steady northeast track into south- central Canada by early Sunday.
Dew points will likely increase into the low to mid 50s ahead of a storm system moving across the Northern Plains. This low will be replaced with a massive ridge building across the eastern United States and western Atlantic, placing the FA in a southwest flow aloft. The western low/trough will pretty much remain in place with pieces of energy emanating from this feature and heading northeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley.
738 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 The much advertised cold front has pushed south of a Columbus to Macon line with radar showing the associated convection out ahead now moving south and east of the forecast area.
/issued 612 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ Wrap around moisture from upper level low in Ohio will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies early this evening over portions of West Tennessee before clearing overnight.
Despite the instability, the overall setup is not favorable for convective development with weak upper ridging over Texas. An upper low and trough encompass a large part of the western CONUS. The higher severe probabilities are across the northern half of our area. 19 (Sunday night through next Saturday) Currently, there is a large upper level low over the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge extending from south central Canada into the southern plains, and additional troughing across the eastern U. Expect storms to continue into the evening hours before the low levels stabilize due to loss of heating after sunset.
Timing on when the low clouds begin to erode will be the key for surface based convection Sunday.
Wrap around moisture from upper level low in Ohio will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies early this evening over portions of West Tennessee before clearing overnight.
Warmer conditions will also follow for much of the upcoming week. Bulk of showers now north and east of pittsburgh as mid level trough begins to close off over central pennsylvania.
947 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Evening surface analysis depicts a cold front moving southeastward into the Florida panhandle and interior southeast Georgia. Dry air overspread our region today, which has limited convective development along and ahead of the cold front. A cold front will cross our waters overnight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possibly developing later this evening. High pressure will gradually filter into our region from the northwest, with winds becoming northerly on Sunday evening. High pressure will then build offshore of the southeastern U.
747 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A cold front will move across the area this evening. Dry high pressure will build into the region behind the front through midweek. A cold front extended through the Carolina Mountains to central Georgia early this evening. Most of the high resolution mesoscale models show the convection across central GA skirting some of our GA counties in the CSRA, but generally remaining south of the Augusta area this evening. Omega block over the CONUS will begin to break down with upper low over the Northeastern states to Mid Atlantic/Carolina shifting off the eastern seaboard. Upper ridge in the midwest moving slowly east. Several short waves rotating around upper low may be trigger for convection.
124 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight.
336 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Aviation section updated A series of low pressure systems will bring rain chances to central Indiana at times into the weekend. /Today/ Only weak lift is expected this morning with a warm front well to the south. With temperatures expected to be near freezing across the far northern forecast area at 12Z, will including a brief mention of freezing rain early in the day. The warm front will move close to the southern forecast area by 00Z. Went closer to the MAV MOS for highs today, which looks more reasonable than the warmer MET given expected arrival of warm front and plenty of cloud cover.
330 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved east and is parked along the Mid Atlantic Coast this morning. Also some of the short term guidance and even the lower resolution guidance would suggest showers form near the warm front. Tonight all eyes toward low pressure across Central Oklahoma this morning. A trialing cold front will slowly press east along with jet energy. Now this is a two part system as the cold front will lag behind the initial mid and upper level dynamics. Also keep the slight thunder along the highest areas of POPs through the day and again this seems to follow best areas of MUCAPE. That said, we will see improving CIGS and VIS to MVFR by the early afternoon, as warm front advances north.
1258 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures Monday, with increasing rain chances Monday night and Tuesday.
This rain is associated with a northward-lifting warm front, so despite the widespread precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures are expected to warm appreciably through the rest of the pre-dawn hours and into the day today. A cold front will sweep across the area tonight as low pressure lifts north toward the Great Lakes, finally ending the persistent rainfall across the region. After the warmer day today, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels for Tuesday, with highs in the 40s.
The front is expected to lift north as low pressure currently over north central Texas moves north. When this low moves into southeast Kansas, the fog may break up before the advisory is set to expire. This one has been a bit stronger considering the starting point was along the Highway 82 corridor in central Mississippi. models are in good agreement with the evolution of the closed upper low near El Paso Texas. then begin its surge to the north after midnight into the Lower Ohio Valley. Rain chances will also increase from the west along an approaching cold front.
A series of low pressure systems will bring rain chances to central Indiana at times into the weekend. /Today/ Only weak lift is expected this morning with a warm front well to the south. With temperatures expected to be near freezing across the far northern forecast area at 12Z, will including a brief mention of freezing rain early in the day. The warm front will move close to the southern forecast area by 00Z. Went closer to the MAV MOS for highs today, which looks more reasonable than the warmer MET given expected arrival of warm front and plenty of cloud cover.
1231 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Dry weather and seasonal temperatures overnight before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front. Weak impulse moving just south of the CWA managed to spread some very light rain into the ridges of WV/MD during the past couple of hours. Any precipitation could be in the form of very light freezing rain along its northern periphery. In general, precipitation still looks to be primarily rain but there still is a chance some areas may see freezing rain initially, especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD.
314 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning.
Freezing rain this afternoon will transition first to sleet, then to snow from west to east this evening. Recent guidance has been reducing the snowfall totals with each iteration due to the persistent eastward track of the low, which is now moving into southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Winds have remained relatively light today but are expected to increase as the low approaches the region overnight and into Monday. will allow for mid level ridging to build over the Plains Region. Models do set up a cutoff upper low into the mix that sets up over the Southern Plains/Rockies midweek.
Will see a very weak surface front move through tonight, which will take a few degrees off of highs for Tuesday outside of northern Oklahoma where they will be a few degrees warmer, aiding in melting the ice. Another closed low currently taking shape over northern Mexico will eject a piece of energy northeast toward the Southern Plains by late Tuesday. Otherwise, should see much warmer temperatures across the area by the middle and continuing into the latter part of the week.
/issued 903 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Approaching upper low and cold front have begun to generate shwrs/isold tstms across our mainly nrn and wrn areas this evening.
/issued 307 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017/ High Risk of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches through Martin High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Southeastern United States tonight through Tuesday, before shifting southward into the area for middle to end of the week as low pressure moves northeast from the Southwestern United States into the Great Lakes region. The high will bring dry conditions to South Florida this week, except for except for a few showers over the east coast metro areas this afternoon into this evening. The long range models are showing the high moving into the Florida Keys this weekend, as low pressure develops over Texas and moves slowly east into the southern Gulf Coast states. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue along the east coast beaches of South Florida through Martin Luther King, Jr day.
The freezing line and most of the precipitation has shifted to the north of the Ozarks this afternoon removing the threat of freezing rain from the Ozarks. The deep trough across the desert southwest and into old Mexico is expected by the models to cut off and linger nearly in place through the middle part of the week.
High pressure ridging along with rising heights will build across the forecast area today allowing for sunny skies and warming temperatures. However, by late tonight into Tuesday, the ridge gets flattened somewhat as lee-side troughing develops due to low pressure developing across southern Canada and high pressure over southeast Idaho.
353 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Upper low pressure system is finally lifting out of the area today. Temperatures now are around 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across eastern Oklahoma. and winds will shift to the west/southwest behind Pacific cold front. although the low clouds will be around a few more hours and wrap around moisture in the northeast may keep skies from clearing out completely. A blocking pattern develops by midweek.
237 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a trough over the Dakotas running into Wyoming and then down toward the Four Corners region. A large Pacific Ridge nudges onshore over Washington and passes over British Columbia, cresting into a Chinook over the Alberta Frontrange.
1159 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Aviation The low pressure system that is producing ice across the Midwest will move from Texas tonight across Missouri Monday and Lower Michigan Tuesday. A feed of warmer air aloft will produce a mix of light snow, freezing rain and rain from late Monday through Tuesday.
Continue dry and cold with upper ridge passing through and maintaining the surface-based inversion through early Tuesday. Ridge will shift southeast out of our CWA tonight allowing moist westerly Pacific air to flow inland.
1146 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will remain over the north country through Tuesday morning.
109 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. With slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs some through the remainder of this morning. There are still some areas with temperatures near freezing across the far north. and ended up with some freezing rain or drizzle for the next couple horus -- but not expecting any ice accretion with marginal temperatures and relatively warm ground. A band of showers in advance of an approaching cold front will move across the area late Monday night into Tuesday. The weak cold front itself should move through Tuesday night.
1144 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will remain over the north country through Tuesday morning.
434 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Chances for light freezing rain and light rain will increase today as a warm front lifts northward. Some light icing will be possible across far northern Indiana and lower Michigan through early this afternoon before temperatures warm above freezing. Rain will become more widespread tonight into Tuesday morning as temperatures warm well above freezing and low pressure lifts into the Great lakes.
Warm front will lift northward tomorrow and allow for a respite of VFR weather during the afternoon before a cold front approaches from the west and begins to spread showers into the mid state during the evening.
Even though not in the watch, storms along the highway 90 corridor from Uvalde to Bexar counties will likely remain strong, though parameters are weaker there.
1204 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight and move east Monday. Low pressure will track north of the region Monday with a weak cold front crossing the area Monday night. High pressure will build back across the region on Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region tonight. The high will move east on Monday as weak low pressure tracks east across Quebec. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday will range from the low to mid 20s across the north and low to mid 30s down east. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday evening. Anomalously strong upper lvl ridging ovr Cntrl/Ern Can.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front over central Texas from roughly Paris to Eagle Pass.
shallow shelf water temperatures having warmed into the lower 60s may be tonight's dense maritime fog inhibitor. Per the higher resolution modeling. The northeast ejection of the western Texas upper low into OK-KS tomorrow morning suggests that the bulk of the highest shear/energy should stay well to the north. With a slightly higher surge of Gulf moisture moving inland and warmer mid layers providing interior skinny CAPE values (600-800 J/kg). There is enough turning of the lower few thousand layer winds to promote a weak tornado threat (early day 150-200 SRH northern values).
328 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the region.
Mild weather will continue tonight with low-level easterly flow and an upper ridge in place. A broad, low-amplitude upper level ridge will continue to build over the southeastern CONUS through this period. At lower levels, light southeasterly flow will prevail under a generally weak pressure pattern as high pressure remains centered in the western Atlantic and a low pressure center moves northeastward through the Midwest.
1242 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will push northward tonight into Monday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday.
308 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. With slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs some through the remainder of this morning. There are still some areas with temperatures near freezing across the far north. and ended up with some freezing rain or drizzle for the next couple horus -- but not expecting any ice accretion with marginal temperatures and relatively warm ground. A cold front crosses Tuesday for another half to an inch of QPF area wide.
Clearing will continue from southwest to northeast tonight, as the upper low tracks northeast and associated dry slot continues to overspread our area. /issued 216 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper low has moved from northern Mexico to far West Texas this afternoon with convective activity ongoing from the eastern Big Bend region north through the Permian Basin and then into the southern Panhandle. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 40s across all of the forecast area and highs tomorrow will range from around 60 in the Big Country to the lower 70s south of Interstate 10.
A low pressure system originating in the Southern Plains will be the main focus early in the forecast period. Moisture will be limited tonight though with just scattered light showers early, patchy drizzle, and a slight chance across the northern counties for freezing rain or patchy freezing drizzle for a few hours late.
Fog, dense in spots, is widespread across the region early this morning north of a warm front over the Tennessee Valley. The warm front to our south will surge northward, allowing temperatures to rise into the lower and middle 60s south of the Ohio River, upper 50s north. Tonight the Plains storm system will send a surface cold front toward us as low pressure crosses northern Illinois. The cold front will sweep through on Tuesday, with shower and isolated thunder chances diminishing from west to east over the course of the day. There's no cold air immediately following the frontal passage so even though we'll be behind a cold front in January, high temperatures will still be about 20 degrees warmer than normal for the day. Temperatures may start to fall in the afternoon in southern Indiana as cooler air gradually filters in.
1246 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will build into the area bringing clearing skies for Monday.
As the cold front sweeps southeast across the state today, southwest/west winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind the front should provide enough mixing such that we should see temperatures in the teens and 20s again today. Tonight the small pocket of cooler air moves southeast and is replaced quickly with strong warm advection.
The ridge axis will pass to the east late this morning into this afternoon. An upper level trough will race across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes late today into tonight. An associated cold front will approach the Mississippi River late in the short-term forecast period with rain chances increasing. Went on the higher side of guidance with highs being above forecast values for the last few days.
Upper level low currently lifting into far wrn TX will track newd tonight and Monday. Some light freezing rain or snow could just brush our scntrl SD zones beginning late tonight into Monday afternoon, but the rest of the cwfa will remain dry. Temps will be near seasonal average behind a weak cold front that moves through. This front will lower high temps in the Blkhls where current readings are as high as the lower 50s, but will actually warm temps over parts of nwrn SD where northwest winds will scour out any remaining arctic air. Ridging will help to bring above average temperatures across the CWA by midweek.
WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S. /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary trough staying back to the west. This next trough will dig southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week as a West Coast trough kicks it east. At 19z the upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP. Do have some showers in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough. High wind still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the upper low and Pacific front. Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but the northern counties remain cold in the 30s. Tuesday will be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.