Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It is progged to meander back to the north into ND as a warm front through the day. A s/w trough will work northeast out of the Rockies into the Northern High Plains today. This convection may hold over into Wednesday for portions of our CWA as the upper trough continues to progress through and a frontal boundary remains stalled in the region. There has been and is forecast to be a persistent middle-of-the- country upper level ridge dictating weather conditions around here (hot and dry).
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Aside from a bit of showers and storms north of our area, latest radar imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 70s. Given that strong ridging remains in place, have afternoon highs once again climbing into the mid 90s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
The cntrl TN Valley looks to remain sandwiched between an upper ridge pattern over the Plains states and a weak upper ride axis across the srn Atlantic wwd. Showers/storms look to diminish in coverage/intensity starting Sun, as a weak cold front out of the NW settles into the region and stall invof the mid TN Valley.
/issued 315 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021/ A weak elongated upper level ridge is extending from the western Caribbean Sea across Florida and up the eastern seaboard today, while a weak upper level trough digs from the southern plains into the western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to extend from the Atlantic into the southeastern US today and tonight, with relatively dry air continuing to spread across much of the Florida Peninsula.
Plenty of sun can be expected as this system pushes the high level moisture northward as well.
/Today through Wednesday/ Upper low has made some newd progress over the last 24 hrs, but it continues to maintain its influence upon our region. Upper ridge to our w has also continued to build, and has left our region under quasi-nwly flow aloft.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend with the highest probabilities favoring the central mountains and eastward. The upper level ridge axis will shift east of the area later today as a Pacific low, currently over southern Nevada, opens up and races northeast into the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. A developing upper high over northern Mexico will expand north into our area Wednesday, leading to a downtrend in wind speeds and continued warming.
938 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure located between the Bahamas and Bermuda continues to ridge over Florida producing mostly sunny skies, southeast winds and above average temperatures once again today. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mostly sunny skies and temperatures already in the low 80's. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90's. High pressure ridging into the Gulf of Mexico will keep a SE wind flow around 10-15 knots over the gulf waters for the next few days. Showers and storms will be limited through the end of the week and into the weekend with the highest chances near the coast. High pressure settles into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend bringing decreasing winds and continued low chances of rain.
652 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery is showing an MCV drifting generally northeastward through Arkansas within a nearly stationary long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley. Carney Guidance continues to show the gradual filling in and eastward drift of the long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley.
A backdoor cold front will drop south across the region overnight.
630 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend. PWats remain elevated up around 2 inches with the Bermuda High elongating over the Carolinas providing onshore flow in the low levels and moisture streaming in from the Gulf in the midlevels. Less midlevel dynamical support with high pressure building across eastern CONUS and not as much instability as yesterday, therefore thundershowers will not be as widespread. Cont warm and muggy with lows above climo in the low/mid 70s.
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 (Today and tonight) After days of the pseudo-closed low dominating the weather picture across the state, the upper-level pattern is finally starting to shift, but perhaps not the way most folks would like. After a round of thunderstorms moves through the Big Country early this morning, a 590dam ridge at 500mb, currently over northern Mexico, will start building in across west Texas. Given the fact that temperatures were a few degrees higher yesterday than model guidance, we have opted for the warmer solutions, especially across the western and central portions of our area. Speaking of dewpoints, these should also remain high, in the low 70s today and tonight, making for humid and unpleasant conditions across the area.
An upper low deepens offshore today, with moisture continuing to be fed into the region in more southerly flow. With short waves rotating around the low in this flow, showers will return to much of the region today. However, with the deep trough feeding cooler air into the region temperatures will be ten degrees or more cooler than normal. The upper low opens to transform into a deep upper trough offshore that extends well south offshore of southern California by Wednesday morning. This pattern will continue to feed warm and moist air into the region at lower levels, while cooler air continue to be fed into the region at upper levels.
The front will remain to the north of the WFO MPX coverage area with western portions of the surface boundary transitioning to a cold front which will begin to move through the Dakotas. The front remaining to the north of the coverage area with broad ridging will keep the persistent heat in place. Low-to-mid 90s heat index values can be expected both today and Wednesday area-wide despite the formation of afternoon cumulus clouds, with the highest heat index values in the Twin Cities metro and in western MN.
/issued 404 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/ Upper level ridging is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough centered over Arkansas and another one moving onto the west coast. A dryline will be across the area today with a thunderstorm possibly developing across the Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. The upper ridge builds over the region on Wednesday and the temperatures continue to heat up as a result.
Satellite imagery shows the large trough over the eastern Pacific continuing to deepen offshore NorCal. Current temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees cooler across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago.
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Water vapor imagery shows what is left of the upper low tracking over northern AR/southern MO. Remains good model agreement in a sharp upper trough situated off of the Pacific Northwest coast with this feature moving into the Northern Intermountain/Central Great Basin by Wed night. At the same time, upper ridging will expand across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. This feature will allow a weak cold front to push through the Plains during the day Fri. GFS and ECMWF agree on an expansive area of upper ridging building for the weekend across Northern Mex into the southern and central Plains.
408 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery is showing an MCV drifting generally northeastward through Arkansas within a nearly stationary long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley. Carney Guidance continues to show the gradual filling in and eastward drift of the long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a closed low spinning over Arkansas. The rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold most sites cooler than normal today. Morning lows Wednesday will be several degrees warmer than normal again.
In addition, a large vertically-stacked upper level low remains located over Missouri. Upper low continues to dominate the weather pattern in the early part of the extended, with upper ridge dominating the SW CONUS and no appreciable steering flow, the funneling of Gulf moisture continues until the end of the week.
The front is expected to stall somewhere south of the Missouri River this afternoon and remain stationary tonight as the low moves into North Dakota with a cold front. The trough will combine with several ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms. A cold front in western Montana ahead of an upper trough in the Pacific NW will bring thunderstorms to central Montana that could move through the western zones of the forecast area Wednesday Night.
915 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend. PWats remain elevated up around 2 inches with the Bermuda High elongating over the Carolinas providing onshore flow in the low levels and moisture streaming in from the Gulf in the midlevels. Less midlevel dynamical support with high pressure building across eastern CONUS and not as much instability as yesterday, therefore thundershowers will not be as widespread. Cont warm and muggy with lows above climo in the low/mid 70s.
We will see dew points increase northward today as 850 mb warm front will lift thru all the fcst area today. \ Wednesday will see southerly sfc winds increase and warmer air move with highs in the 90s in most areas. But a tad cooler/stable air moves in Wed night into eastern ND.
221 AM PDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Cooler and breezy conditions will continue for the next couple of days a slow moving trough of low pressure ushers in marine-cooled air to the valley. Afternoon high temps will return back to near typical levels over the weekend as high pressure builds. Even cooler temperatures Wednesday as the trough of low pressure moves overhead.
Tuesday and Wednesday, weather pattern starts to become dominated by the presence of an upper ridge centered to our south which will build through the short term period. Areas west of this feature are likely to achieve upper 90s to triple digit highs while areas east will likely remain in the lower 90s.
Not surprisingly, this led to nocturnally-driven scattered shower activity mainly over portions of the Lower Keys and the nearshore and offshore coastal waters.
Forcing by convergence along the surface dryline/trough will aid in rapid strengthening, with widely scattered strong to severe convection capable of damaging winds and large hail.
High pressure is forecast over western Lake Superior and will help keep the rest of the area dry tonight. Low pressure will be organizing in the western Dakotas late tonight. The low is forecast to move into northwest Ontario and linger through Wednesday night, while the Lake Superior high remains nearby. The showers and storms will persist along the international border through Wednesday night near the track of the low.
Midlevel clouds were scattered across the area this morning as the upper level low slowly churned north into the area. Temps at 2am ranged from the upper 60s to the low 70s as low level moisture increased across the area. Weak surface flow and this upper level low are expected to drive the weather in the short term.
The upper low continues to hang around the region centered over central Arkansas with some scattered showers lifting from the south into southern and western Middle Tennessee.
1003 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A broad upper low pressure system over MO/IL will slowly track northeast and situate over IL/IN tonight and then work into Ohio on Wednesday.
A rather warm and moist airmass will remain in place over the local area as an upper low continues to very slowly move northeastward out of the southern Plains. With rising heights aloft, we should see high temps reach the low 90s in most spots.
404 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Upper level ridging is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough centered over Arkansas and another one moving onto the west coast. A dryline will be across the area today with a thunderstorm possibly developing across the Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. The upper ridge builds over the region on Wednesday and the temperatures continue to heat up as a result.
The best 8h inflow/moisture transport was on the south and west sections of the MCS in MS and AR closer to the surface warm front/outflow boundary. The cntrl TN Valley looks to remain sandwiched between an upper ridge pattern over the Plains states and a weak upper ride axis across the srn Atlantic wwd. Showers/storms look to diminish in coverage/intensity starting Sun, as a weak cold front out of the NW settles into the region and stall invof the mid TN Valley.
Overnight, a weak upper low likely responsible for enhancing storms across the area today will track east into Kentucky. However, much of the Midsouth will remain on the east side of a trough centered over east Arkansas. Temperatures should trend slightly warmer each day through the work week with upper 80s to low 90s returning over the weekend.
No real forcing mechanism (cold front for example) to key on so will keep a tempo for rain showers and will amend for thunder as storms develop and head toward taf sites. The center of upper level low pressure filled considerably in the last 6 hours so large scale forcing today will be very weak and subtle.
229 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Vast upper low remains the story for the mid-state. This upper low now centered just to our northwest, and is slowly making it's way into the OH valley.
The forecast does still have a slight chance of afternoon showers/storms along and north of the highway 2 corridor, but that is looking pretty unlikely now. Temperatures will likely be cooler over the Devils Lake region and northern Red River Valley. Some of the high resolution models show the activity east of Bismarck trying to lift north-northeast through the late morning and early afternoon, toward the Devils Lake region, where it gradually weakens. We will see dew points increase northward today as 850 mb warm front will lift thru all the fcst area today. \ Wednesday will see southerly sfc winds increase and warmer air move with highs in the 90s in most areas. But a tad cooler/stable air moves in Wed night into eastern ND.
HRRR & other high-resolution guidance have continued to suggest some more robust development between 00 and 02z along the lee trough/dryline or roughly along I-25.
General instability across the area enhanced by a slowly moving upper level low is generating pulse convection. An upper level ridge building to the southwest pushes the low which has settled over us out toward the east. Midlevel flow begins to tilt toward a SW to NE orientation which funnels much warmer air into the region.
A broad upper level trough currently situated across central Missouri continues to slowly circulate and move to the northeast. The threat for thunder begins to diminish after sunset with the loss of diabatic heating, but do expect continued light to moderate rain as the bulk of the forcing associated with the aforementioned low pressure arrives. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected again tomorrow as the low continues the slow movement to the northeast. By tomorrow night, the low will be centered over central Indiana with continued light to moderate rain expected. Will continue to use coverage wording to highlight the high confidence in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Our area will remain between low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley and high pressure over the southeastern states through Wednesday, keeping us in a humid airmass with scattered storms.
Breezy and unseasonably cool, especially inland, through Wednesday as a late season dry upper trough passes over northern California.
1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 (Today and tonight) After days of the pseudo-closed low dominating the weather picture across the state, the upper-level pattern is finally starting to shift, but perhaps not the way most folks would like. After a round of thunderstorms moves through the Big Country early this morning, a 590dam ridge at 500mb, currently over northern Mexico, will start building in across west Texas. Given the fact that temperatures were a few degrees higher yesterday than model guidance, we have opted for the warmer solutions, especially across the western and central portions of our area. Speaking of dewpoints, these should also remain high, in the low 70s today and tonight, making for humid and unpleasant conditions across the area.
An area of showers has spread into southeast Illinois late this morning, but rain has been fairly light thus far with ceilings on the higher side. 08z/3am water vapor imagery shows an elongated upper trough extending from the southern Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi River Valley. Highs will reach the lower to middle 80s.
339 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A cold front will push offshore overnight.
One place that is not as windy as previously thought is the highway 60 corridor. The trough has also cooled the temps by a few degrees, which might have been missed by some of the models. Satellite still shows some of that smoke transporting northward and getting trapped in the higher valleys. There may be a slight chance some of the smoke makes it into the low- level inversion late this evening. Tomorrow a trough will impact the West Coast, and that jet begins to spread over the area through out the day.
Effective bulk shears on the cold side of the MCS are 20-30kt at most, with much of this located in the lower 1-2km. Southerly flow has advected dew points into the lower 70s across the area, with middle 70s not far behind to the south.
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Aside from a bit of showers and storms north of our area, latest radar imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 70s. Given that strong ridging remains in place, have afternoon highs once again climbing into the mid 90s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
We've seen a few bands of showers and storms develop along the eastern periphery of the low this afternoon, and this activity will gradually push off to our north and northeast through the day. or send hydrometers high/long enough above the freezing level to result in any meaningful hail. The core of the upper level low currently in Missouri will be closer to us tomorrow, so winds aloft will be a bit weaker.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening with an upper level wave on the high plains. Once the wave moves through the area, an upper level ridge builds across the area.
925 mb temperatures are similar to today so went with similar high temperatures for Wednesday in the lower to middle 90s.
225 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Storms continue to fire along the warm front stretching across southwest ND this afternoon. Low pressure will move into western and central SD this evening. This is especially true as the warm front reorients and retrogrades to a sharper southwest to northeast direction that travels through western Corson. Our persistent pattern continues with the 500mb low and trough extending from the Gulf of AK through WA/OR/CA.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper ridging will move eastward tonight.
310 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 The chance for rain will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Clouds and abundant moisture will help keep overnight temperatures warmer than normal.
A slow moving upper low is currently centered over southeast Michigan. This has been responsible for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today, fueled by Gulf moisture that is being directed northward from a broader upper low over the middle Mississippi Valley. The second upper low will move up and track just south of the area on Wednesday.
A weak cold front will take some of the edge off the humidity north of the Thruway on Wednesday, while thunderstorms will generally be focused along the Twin Tiers and points south.
Some of the high resolution models show the activity east of Bismarck trying to lift north-northeast through the late morning and early afternoon, toward the Devils Lake region, where it gradually weakens. We will see dew points increase northward today as 850 mb warm front will lift thru all the fcst area today. \ Wednesday will see southerly sfc winds increase and warmer air move with highs in the 90s in most areas. But a tad cooler/stable air moves in Wed night into eastern ND.
Through the end of the work week a 500mb ridge builds eastward and weakens over the central and northern plains.
We will begin to see a slight shift westward of the mid-level ridge Wednesday into Wednesday night.
235 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend.
A closed low and upper level trough remains just off the West Coast today as an amplified southwest flow aloft extends eastward into the Northern and Central High Plains.
An upper-level ridge will continue to build over the FA tonight through tomorrow, helping to bring mostly clear skies. A surface cyclone will move over the Texas Panhandle tomorrow bringing southwesterly winds to much of the South Plains by mid-afternoon. With the ridge overhead and a warm layer around 850 mb, storms will have a hard time breaking through the cap. The upper flow pattern will remain rather amplified throughout the western CONUS, as an upper trough moves over the California coast late Wednesday night.
This combined with the relatively clearer skies across the north lends credence to the HRRR's depiction of warmer temps in the northern valley with the addition of some weak downslope flow/warming. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 85 70 84 70 / 50 70 50 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 85 70 84 70 / 40 70 50 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 85 68 83 68 / 40 70 50 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 86 66 83 67 / 40 70 30 70 50.
An outflow boundary from thunderstorms that developed across the Texas panhandle late last night moved through the region this morning from north to south and it had generated some light to moderate showers along with areas of drizzle within the low stratus deck. The mid-level ridging will continue to strengthen over the area through Wednesday. Expect slightly warmer temperatures for Wednesday, however, dew points improve slightly into the lower 70s instead of the middle 70s.
With good heating tomorrow, the better chances for convection will be across north Georgia in proximity to the upper low. Higher chances will be likely in North Georgia through the end of the week with as a little added support from a weak mid-level trough before it kicks out over the weekend.
205 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Frontal boundary/outflow from morning MCS hovering across central MN/northern WI while Closed low was still pinwheeling across MO/western IL. Mid-level stretching deformation from that closed low could swing a few showers/storms in across southern forecast area (south of I-90) while that boundary up north acts as a focus for some convection on our northern fringes.
Most of the CWA has already exceeded 90 degrees and should top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon.