Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SE COAST.
338 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE DRY PATTERN WILL START SEEING CRACKS IN THE ARMOR STARTING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA.
WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING EAST WE SHOULD SEE LARGER RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE DESERT SW AND AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
317 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST FRIDAY.
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
347 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
509 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND A WARM-UP SUNDAY ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE TRENDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BOTH SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL ND WHERE LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND SOME SNOWMELT TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ITS FORMATION. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM 35 IN THE ROLLA AREA TO THE 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE LOWER 50S IN FAR SOUTHWEST ND.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES AND USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
730 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
713 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL START TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW FROM THE WEST, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
/ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
653 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 SATELLITE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE NE/IA BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN PRECIP ACROSS MAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ARE BELOW FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW. WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER NERN IA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLIDE S/SE WITH TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SO WILL SHIFT THOSE WARMER TEMPS FURTHER WEST INTO THE CLOUDY REGION AND DROP TEMPS FROM THE VALLEY ON EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE EAST AND WARMER WEST.
BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN SW IDAHO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE OREGON AND REACH THE ID/OR BORDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
923 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS AND A WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND IT.
THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT SO STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS NE FL AND AROUND 70 DEGREES SE GA. THEN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 07Z AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
1021 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
618 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 While similar processes are at play with respect to above freezing temperatures yet snow mixing in (steep low- to mid-level lapse rates, moisture available in the dendritic growth zone, etc. Mosaic radar imagery is showing very widely scattered showers (rain and snow) across the northern half of the forecast area, rotating south and eastward around an associated low pressure system. The question is whether or not some of it is reaching the ground, thanks to a very dry layer in the lower atmosphere. The wrench in the forecast lows for tonight will be the cloud cover: the more cover, the less likely of too much of a dip below freezing, which is the scenario that appears to be setting up with the aforementioned low.
Upper low and a quick ripple moving through the upper trof will result in a bit of vertical ascent across the region. Have lowered the pops into the low chance category and kept the shower wording.
BUT FEEL MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND INCOMING COLD UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ORDINARILY EQUATE TO AN AIRMASS THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL BUT FREEZING LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
619 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 Upper low and a quick ripple moving through the upper trof will result in a bit of vertical ascent across the region. Have lowered the pops into the low chance category and kept the shower wording.
ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES.
1220 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND YESTERDAYS FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKENS FOR LATE SUNDAY. A FEW PROTECTED VALLEYS WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL CALL FOR TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR COOLEST POCKETS.
930 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE REPRESENTATIVE WITH A CONTINUED FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING. GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE NW CWA HIGHLIGHTING THE NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED.
1033 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
932 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR FREEZING IN OUTLYING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO UTAH SUNDAY. RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 4200 FEET ARE DELIVERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016/ COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE NOTICEABLY PICKED UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
Main forecast issues in the short term period lie with upper low passage later tonight/sunday.
735 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
712 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE SHOWERS HAVE EXITED MINNESOTA AND ARE NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO IOWA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. OUR HIGHS TOMORROW MIGHT END UP A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST /WHICH IS MAINLY LOWER 40S RIGHT NOW/.
1023 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
Scattered showers continue along a cold front draped through the Tri-State region this evening.
629 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER IOWA. AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER HUDSON BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
1214 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE RGN TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHCS OF A LGT RAIN/SNOW MIX. THOUGH COVERAGE AGAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED UNTIL THE TROF AXIS MOVES THRU IN THE EVE. THE CROSSING UPR TROF SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHCS FOR LGT RAIN AND SNOW SUN EVE. THOUGH ONLY LGT ACCUMULATIONS ARE PSBL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SE OF PIT WHERE COLDER TEMPS AND PREDOMINANTLY LGT SNOW IS EXPD. ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY MON MRNG AS THE TROF EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS.
1143 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER IOWA. AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER HUDSON BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
859 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN DESTIN AND PENSACOLA. REGIONAL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LURKING IN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OUT TO SEA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD SUPPORT WITH A LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE PRODUCING DECENT COOL AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
1045 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 While similar processes are at play with respect to above freezing temperatures yet snow mixing in (steep low- to mid-level lapse rates, moisture available in the dendritic growth zone, etc. Mosaic radar imagery is showing very widely scattered showers (rain and snow) across the northern half of the forecast area, rotating south and eastward around an associated low pressure system. The question is whether or not some of it is reaching the ground, thanks to a very dry layer in the lower atmosphere. The wrench in the forecast lows for tonight will be the cloud cover: the more cover, the less likely of too much of a dip below freezing, which is the scenario that appears to be setting up with the aforementioned low.
310 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR MONDAY THE TREND WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR 2-3 DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TRACKING SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER. THIS WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY DAY WILL BE IN STORE AS THE STUBBORN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVERTOP TEXAS LIKE A PROTECTIVE MOTHER HEN KEEPING HER EGGS WARM.
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF WHICH MAY EDGE BACK TO THE WEST TODAY AND MONDAY. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED AND INCREASED TO 597/596 DM FOR 00Z SUN. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF TX AND S PLAINS FOR THE COMING WEEK.
311 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES.
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINING ANOTHER IDEAL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A TROUGH ARRIVES TO START THE WORK WEEK. AND OF COURSE THE HIGHEST READINGS/ MID 80S/ IN THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS AND LAKE PLAINS. GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNSLOPING TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA TODAY. MONDAY COULD SEE BETTER STORM COVERAGE DUE TO THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE CAROLINA TROUGH EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND DIURNAL HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (PER 700-500 RH) ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST COAST. IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILD. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO THE MIX.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL NORTH-NE FLOW BEHIND THE SECONDARY MAY ADVECT ENOUGH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY.
THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE DAY THE NORTHWEST US TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST. AND MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL NORTH-NE FLOW BEHIND THE SECONDARY MAY ADVECT ENOUGH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA. WITH TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST.
LIKELY DUE TO THE EASTERN RIDGE BREAKING DOWN FASTER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF A SLOWER TRACK EASTWARD OF SHOWERS AND KEEP THE HIGHER POPS CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE LOWER LEVELS ACTUALLY GET.
A TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THE HEATING TO A MINIMUM. A BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING AS MAX TEMP/S COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK BY MID WEEK. AS THE BLOCKING HIGH FORMS OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BUT REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT AS THE BLOCKING HIGH MAINTAINS A DRIER AIRMASS OVER CALIFORNIA.
636 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Summer Time Heat For The Missouri Ozarks During The Next Few The summer time upper level ridge of high pressure is currently centered over East Texas this morning. Surface dewpoints will be in the lower to middle 70s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 with the highest values north of the I-44 corridor into southeast Kansas and west central Missouri.
354 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SIT BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AND ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXITING JET ENERGY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE TEXAS HIGH BUILDS INTO SE CO.
244 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
335 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BRING EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS WILL AT LEAST GIVE THE AREA SOME CHANCE FOR DAILY CONVECTION.
THESE RETURNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH SLIDING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND PRODUCING ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORMS. DO ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE RAMPING UP OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET. THESE FEATURES WILL BE WORKING WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OF 3000-5000 J/KG WITH THE MID LEVEL CAP EDGE IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH THE 850 WARM FRONT. PCPN TRENDS FOR MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COMPLEX DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEALTHY CHC POPS GOING WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE 850 TROUGH STILL SWINGING THROUGH.
THE LATEST MODEL DATA ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST AREA. WITH MAJOR TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR AND CLOUD COVER.
203 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHIFTS OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. EASTERN FLANK OF MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TX/OK RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS CWA. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST DIGS ALOFT OF STATE. RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO FLORIDA.