Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Regional radar imagery shows the cold front approaching the plateau early this morning, with scattered convection continuing both along the front itself and out ahead of it over the east TN mountains and far western NC. Will continue to see convective coverage increase across the southern half of the forecast area as upper trough axis and right entrance region of associated jet streak aren't forecast to swing east of the CWA until daybreak or shortly thereafter. This seems reasonable but given strong northwest flow in the low levels there will be some downslope warming off the plateau. Strong high pressure builds into the region tonight. This dry air mass will advect this direction which, when combined with clearing skies and light winds, should allow for temps to fall well into the low 50s tonight and even some upper 40s in the north.
332 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will move across the region this morning.
In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, our area will have a brief reprieve from the heat today.
1234 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will approach overnight and cross the area on Tuesday.
/issued 648 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. The cold front currently moving through west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be well to the south of the Mid-South with rain ending from extreme southern areas. Winds will shift to the south on Wednesday bringing warmer air back into the region. Temperatures will still be below normal on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
0630Z temperatures are sitting in the lower to middle 60s, with even a smattering of upper 50s. Spots near the TX/NM line could briefly warm into the lower 90s. Strong heating and modest northward moisture transport will fuel isolated to widely scattered convective development over the higher terrain of eastern NM late this afternoon. An upper high will be controlling the region tomorrow and will allow temps to warm back to near/over 100F.
Expect highs to reach the low 70s on the Cumberland Plateau and the mid to upper 70s in places west of there.
1115 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will slowly push southeast across the region tonight, then exit the area Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler through midweek before moderating into the weekend. Cold front, located across the northwest mountains at 01Z, will slowly push southeast across the region overnight. Minimum temperatures will have the most spread in recent nights thanks to the cold front bisecting the area with lows ranging from around 50F over the NW mtns, to upper 60s in the far southeast zones. Temps will trend much cooler on Tuesday with 24hrMaxT deltas of -20 to -25F lower vs.
Cold front currently situated across the hill country and eastward into East Texas.
/Issued 349 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Ample moisture and approaching upper level trough will continue to promote shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Behind the front a cooler and drier air mass returns to the state. Min temperatures will be 7-10 degrees cooler Tuesday Night/ Wednesday morning with north Georgia waking up to lows in the 50s.
353 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will move across central North Carolina today. High pressure will follow and build across the middle Atlantic through mid-week. At 06Z, a cold front was analyzed approaching the mountains. Most guidance agrees that the cold front will cross central NC between 18Z (west) and 03Z (east) this evening. In the wake of the departing cold front, high pressure and a drier and somewhat cooler airmass will build to our north and extend south across the Carolinas.
456 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic, with the Florida Keys located beneath its western flank. Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon had indicated very dry air present in the lower and middle troposphere, and more recent satellite microwave data suggest this swath of dry air is still present across much of the service area. Despite the arid conditions only a few thousand feet above ground, it is rather sultry here at the Earth's surface, where current air temperatures in the Florida Keys remain in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 70s, and heat indices even in the lower 90s at this late/early hour.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be close to climo norms with some weak waa and rising heights as the upper ridge shifts closer to the Rockies. Southerly flow Tuesday night should keep temps a bit warmer. The period begins on Wednesday with an upper level ridge over the Northern Plains, with a weak front passing passing through the CWA.
(Today and tonight) Latest mesoanalysis shows the cold front has crossed the river into old Mexico, taking earlier convection with it. Wednesday, the heat returns as thicknesses increase under the ridge, w/temps soaring back to well-above normal. A heat advisory or two may be needed for the higher elevations, but we'll evaluate this tonight.
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Very chilly air has settled over the area early this morning as a high pressure system has drifted over the region.
The upper trough does begin to depart the region during the day on Tuesday and return flow sets in by midday. Zonal flow becomes established by the end of the day on Wednesday with a shallow northern stream wave driving a cold front southward into the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS, with a cut-off ridge over north-central Mexico and a deep trough from the High Plains to the east coast. These features will inch east through the short term period, with the ridge suppressing all convective activity and most cloud cover over the central plains. At the surface, southwest KS will reside between high pressure that will be sliding east into the lower Midwest/Appalachians area, and troughing in the lee of the Rocky Mountains from the US/Canada border south into eastern CO.
244 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Upper ridging will bring more dry and warm weather to the area today. A weak cold front will push in from the northwest late in the day triggering isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms. We expect these to be mainly high-based due to dry air in the lower levels, which will limit precipitation potential, but may cause strong wind gusts near storms.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): A vorticity maximum along the base of an NE-SW elongated mid-level trough rotates around the eastern periphery of the 500mb ridge centered over the Desert SW. Temperatures for the day will likely reach the low/mid 90s before the rain sets in and cool off back into the 80s or possible the upper 70s when a good storm passes overhead. some convection lingers across portions of the RGV this evening before waning before midnight as the elongated trough and disturbance drifts south of the border. 500mb ridge re- establishes back over Texas Wednesday but residual moisture across the eastern portions of the CWA, daytime heating and the seabreeze should be enough to spark at least a slight chance of showers/tstms mainly along and east of the I 69C.
It's radiative and not advective, thus the patchy nature and likely most prevalent in low-lying cooler areas. A ~594-dm 500-mb high height center near El Paso will move slowly eastward through the short term period, resulting in building mid- level heights and warmer conditions.
138 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front will slowly push southeast across the region tonight, then exit the area Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler through midweek before moderating into the weekend. Cold front, located across the northwest mountains at 01Z, will slowly push southeast across the region overnight. Minimum temperatures will have the most spread in recent nights thanks to the cold front bisecting the area with lows ranging from around 50F over the NW mtns, to upper 60s in the far southeast zones. Temps will trend much cooler on Tuesday with 24hrMaxT deltas of -20 to -25F lower vs.
Farther upstream, narrow pockets of cirrus are evident atop an amplifying ridge covering much of the wrn CONUS; some of these upper-level clouds will stream across the area this aftn/eve. Mid-to-upper ridge axis over the wrn CONUS will gradually shift ewd over the next couple of days, deamplifying as it does so. Meanwhile, low-level thermal ridge will approach the region on Tuesday and become centered over the High Plains by Wednesday, leading to a steady warming trend through midweek.
Currently, Upper levels are dominated by a large amplitude ridge. At the sfc to the west is an area of low pressure, and accompanying frontal boundary. For today, the subsequent subsidence from the high pressure system will keep the day mostly sunny, and allow temperatures at 850 to range ~25-28C. With mixing to the sfc, daytime highs are fcst to be in the low 90s across the area. By late afternoon/this evening, the low pressure system and front will have crossed the Rockies and will be working its way through the area.
Cooler temperatures today, but a warming trend will begin on Wednesday. Cold front will finally push south of the region late tonight, bringing an end to the pockets of heavier rain that continue to form along it. The trough will help to keep clouds over the region, but these will begin to diminish once the upper level energy exits to the east.
346 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 (Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021) Today through Wednesday: Cooler temperatures this morning will give way to warmer weather as southerly winds kick in and bring some warmer air to Wisconsin. The high temperatures are expected to rebound into 70s for today and Wednesday.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ The much anticipated cold front has moved through all of North and Central Texas late this evening with north winds and cooler air filtering into the region. Mid level ridging will quickly build back into the Southern Plains on Wednesday with a quick warmup in store. /Issued 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ /Tuesday Night and Beyond/ The cool-down from today's front will be short-lived as an upper ridge will quickly build in from the west and remain planted overhead for the middle and latter part of the workweek. The subsequent arrival of low level moisture will send dewpoints back into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.
232 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front over Central PA will continue to push southeast and out of the area this morning. Temperatures will be much cooler today and stay below normal through midweek before moderating into the weekend. The cold front appears to be almost half-way through the CWA and moving steadily.
Today Through Wednesday Night Cold front moved through Arkansas yesterday, which is quite obvious when you step outside this morning. High pressure will move through the region through Wednesday. By late Wednesday, the high will shift eastward, with southerly/ southeasterly flow returning.
1010 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The post frontal regime across the area has brought relatively very cool conditions as the surface ridging becoming more pronounced. One feature to watch for the rest of the day will be a broad trough with a fairly deep 1. This will make daytime highs a bit higher than previously advertised for Tuesday, likely settling into the lower to middle 80s, with slightly warmer temps across the western zones.
Aloft, we'll be located between a ridge over the central US and a trough to our east, resulting in NW flow and a backing wind profile. CAA regime will keep temps below normal for Wednesday, with morning lows expected to be in the low-mid 50s (normal is mid-upper 60s) and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (normal is mid-upper 80s).
This morning, an upper trough was digging into the Great Lakes region, with northwest flow aloft upstream across the Northern Plains. Broad high pressure was centered to our southeast over southern Minnesota, resulting in weak southwesterly surface flow. A thermal ridge axis will begin building to our west today, with 850mb temps in the 20 to 25 C range over western North Dakota. The previously mentioned thermal ridge pushes east on Wednesday, while at the surface, a cold front will drop south across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening. From the southwest to the north central, highs will be in the low to mid 90s. As the cold front enters the north in the afternoon, highs along the international border will be limited to the mid to upper 80s.
This will be due to upper west coast ridging weakening as a system propagates across Canada, causing the overall pattern to become less amplified. Thermal ridge will begin to approach from the west as the large scale pattern begins to evolve.
312 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Much cooler air overtakes the region today through tonight.
1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front has slowed early this morning as it moves in from the north.
Early this morning the cold front is draped across the region from between Del Rio and Eagle Pass to San Antonio to La Grange, with an occasionally strong but gradually weakening area of thunderstorms west of Medina County and another that moved into Lee and Fayette counties from the east. Lows return to the 70s tonight and winds rapidly shift back to the E/SE, keeping the high moisture content in place.
333 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Today will be drier and much cooler than yesterday with scattered to numerous showers expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.
(This evening through Tuesday night) As of 200 PM CDT, a cold front is plunging swd and now entering the Pecos River valley. Ahead of the cold front, a rather moist boundary layer is in place w/Td in the 70s stretching from Big Lake to Dryden. As lift assocd with the cold front interacts w/this moist environment, thunderstorms are expected to develop. Tomorrow morning will start off on the cool side with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.
A few weak radar return have been noted throughout the day west of the James River associated with a vort lobe rotating around base of the upper level trough. Guidance in decent agreement with a wave crashing over the ridge Wednesday evening but diverge on if this will be enough to spark any convection.
Stronger showers/storms were observed across the Panhandle of Florida and northeastern Gulf associated with longwave troughing, ahead of a cold front moving across the Southeast. Cloudy skies will keep high temperatures below normal in the low to mid 80s most locations. Overnight lows will be near 70 to the lower 70s.
Cold front lays across western Colorado into eastern Idaho early this morning. Upper ridge builds in from the west through the day today.
Will therefore maintain the low precipitation chances in the Lake of the Woods region for late tonight/early Tuesday. Weak return flow develops Tuesday morning with winds becoming southerly and highs rising in to the 70s for highs as 500mb ridging builds into the area. Ensembles are a bit at odds with this system producing much, but the highest chance for rain looks to be for areas north of I-94.
A quick warmup is expected for Wednesday with temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than today. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Wednesday/ The much anticipated cold front has moved through all of North and Central Texas late this evening with north winds and cooler air filtering into the region. Mid level ridging will quickly build back into the Southern Plains on Wednesday with a quick warmup in store.
704 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Very chilly air has settled over the area early this morning as a high pressure system has drifted over the region.
640 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 As a mid-level trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, cool and dry conditions are expected, with temperatures well below normal today.
835 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A cold front has moved southeast of the I-59 corridor and out of our forecast area. Moderately strong northwest flow aloft will persist across the forecast area from tonight through Wednesday night, before weakening and veering to NNE as a mid-level ridge begins to expand into the region from the southwest. At the surface, the center of a ridge is predicted to become established across the central Appalachians tonight, providing light northeast flow and favorable conditions for radiational cooling given mostly clear skies.
Lingering low ceilings (MVFR/IFR) will be more common for southern sites (HBG/PIB) as a cold front slowly moves through that area. To the north behind the front, temperatures are cooler and drier. Highs will be held to the lowers 80s F north of the front and will be in the middle 80s F to the south. This will likely allow for more radiational cooling tonight than is typical this time of year under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies north of the highway 84 corridor. Temperatures will likely fall to near 60 F in some of the cooler spots near the Golden Triangle, warming as you go south with overnight lows in the Pine Belt likely only falling to near 70 F.
625 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 High pressure continues to build into the region behind a cold front that is now draped well to the southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A broad upper trough, centered over the Hudson Bay, extends well south through the Mississippi Valley with a dominant ridge extending north over the desert southwest. This setup has established northwest upper level flow throughout the plains and into the Midwest, funneling cooler, drier air into the region.
514 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push across eastern Kentucky early this morning, as a cold front also makes its way to the east and out of the area. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region behind the departed front, giving as much cooler weather today, with highs in the lower 70s on tap for eastern Kentucky.
Cooler temperatures today, but a warming trend will begin on Wednesday. Overnight lows are forecast to be around 15 degrees below normal on average (approaching record lows) with relatively light winds, minimal coverage, and dewpoints in the low 40s. High pressure will be in control the remainder of the work week. Shower and storm chances return for the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves over the upper midwest and gulf moisture gets tapped under southwesterly flow aloft. After precipitation ends this morning with the passage of the upper trough axis, heating/mixing will generate cu late through the aftn and feature of mix of MVFR to low VFR heights. Intruding dry air and building high pressure will yield clearer skies and VFR conditions areawide by this evening. The next restriction chance will come with a late week low pressure system.
0 inches and lake and sea breeze boundaries, there will be additional lift from the upper-level trough approaching and moving through central FL this afternoon and evening, supporting 60-70% nearly areawide. Have drawn the highest PoPs (60-70 percent) focused on the 4-10 pm time frame. A frontal boundary will press SE across the deep South which will keep the Atlc ridge axis across the northern Bahamas/Lake O region, resulting in a general southerly wind flow 10-15 knots across the local Atlc waters.
600 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 A little warmer today, but overall still a nice day in store for the area. Given decent mixing up to 850-700mb and slightly warmer temperatures than anticipated yesterday, have bumped temperatures up several degrees this afternoon. Despite the warmer temperatures today, continued lower humidity values and breezy winds will result in a generally pleasant, albeit warm, day.
High pressure will serve as the dominant influence today with northerly flow at the surface advecting a cool. Sky cover will continue to diminish through dawn as the H500 trough axis and most embedded vorts cross the CWA. Bright skies will then be the rule this morning under a very dry column and subsidence from the approaching center of high pressure. The bright June sun should lead to FEW/SCT afternoon cumulus across southern/northern zones, although the air will feel very dry for late June, with surface dewpoints bottoming out in the low-mid 40s midday today. A weak warm front will expand from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes this evening. This will translate to highs in the low to mid 70s today. lows in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.
Afternoon max temperatures will only be slightly cooler, hence my refusal to outright call this a cold front. Tomorrow (Wednesday), the frontal boundary will retrograde back into the area as a warm front. Wednesday will be slightly more pleasant with less rain chances but a few degrees warmer.
/Issued 537 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021/ A weak cold front is currently positioned across northern AL into central TN. Instability is marginal ahead of and along the front this morning, but broad ascent from the associated upper trough and PWATs of 1. Models depict the cold front stalling somewhere along the southern tier of the CWA tomorrow, so should see diurnal scattered showers and storms develop in this area.
We'll probably lose some of that by this weekend as high pressure rebuilds and temperatures climb again. The 22/00z upper air plots placed upper ridge axis along the AZ/NM border while out west off the California coast there was an upper level trof. Early morning water vapor imagery showed an inverted trof extending from the Baja Spur north into SE CA/SW AZ. On the back side of this inverted trof was a disturbance moving north up the Gulf of CA. Cloud cover will be a problem today as the inverted trof shears apart as it lifts NE across SW AZ.
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push across eastern Kentucky early this morning, as a cold front also makes its way to the east and out of the area. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region behind the departed front, giving as much cooler weather today, with highs in the lower 70s on tap for eastern Kentucky.
308 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Upper ridge over the west will dominate the weather pattern for much of the week. Ridge will be building into the northern Rockies over the next few days pushing temperatures into the 90s for much of the region for today and Wednesday. A weak lee trof will keep winds fairly light today, generally minimizing fire weather concerns even with relative humidity dropping into the teens.
519 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Weak upper ridging will continue across the western CONUS and build across the Great Plains today, bringing another day of dry weather. Upper ridging will break down on Wednesday, as upper wave energy pushes in from the southwest ahead of a stranded CA upper low. A thermal ridge will cross the region, bringing the hottest temperatures of the week. Models continue to trend toward isolated thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly across NE WY and the Black Hills area where instability will be a little stronger.
622 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 The cold front is now through all four TAF sites, although some pesky showers and weak thunderstorms may still impact SSF and perhaps SAT over the next hour or two. Early this morning the cold front is draped across the region from between Del Rio and Eagle Pass to San Antonio to La Grange, with an occasionally strong but gradually weakening area of thunderstorms west of Medina County and another that moved into Lee and Fayette counties from the east. Lows return to the 70s tonight and winds rapidly shift back to the E/SE, keeping the high moisture content in place.
307 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Upper ridging will bring more dry and warm weather to the area today. A weak cold front will push in from the northwest late in the day triggering isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms. We expect these to be mainly high-based due to dry air in the lower levels, which will limit precipitation potential, but may cause strong wind gusts near storms.