Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid-level trough is still to the west which will keep mostly cloudy skies today especially north of the I-10 corridor. There will also be a chance for showers across se Ga this afternoon as approaching trough provides lift. Highs today will range from the lower 50s over interior se Ga to the lower 60s over ne Fl. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s over se Ga and the Suwannee Valley to the lower 40s near the ne Fl coast.
Given this and with the low clouds persisting through the day and the low level moisture indicated on model soundings, will likely see some isolated sprinkles or very light rain through the morning. With cooler air moving in behind the front and cloud coverage limiting highs today, expect maximum temperatures in the 50s with lows tonight in the 30s.
When the upper low, that is south of the CWA, passes to the east, it is expected to pivot the band of snow towards the south. This should drive snow ratios lower and reduce total amounts, but with some low level dry air still in place, precipitation will lower temperatures towards dewpoints, which are all well below freezing. While an upper level low works across the Tennessee Valley tonight into Friday afternoon. Going to put out an Special Weather Statement for the overnight snow as there could be a few slick spots on area roadways during the Friday morning commute especially on bridges and overpasses and untreated surfaces as morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. The weekend still looks dry as a large expanse of high pressure spreads from the Rockies and Plains across the Midwest.
A slightly colder low level airmass will still support highs only in the low to mid 30s Sat. Some slightly warmer low level air will then advect in from the northeast Fri night into Saturday, offering a potential for a fair amount of sun on Sat (outside of a few mid/high clouds). Northern stream short wave energy is forecast to break down the mid level ridge late in the weekend. High pressure remains in place across the upper Great Lakes, with northeasterly winds resulting over the marine areas. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected to persist through tomorrow as low pressure over the southeastern US contributes to a modest tightening of the pressure gradient.
1241 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Ahead of a cold front, large-scale ascent has allowed convection to develop and is now pushing through SWFL. Some cold air advection clouds may settle in with the cooler air filtering in, leading to BKN/OVC CIGs for much of the day.
855 PM PST Thu Jan 7 2021 A light wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle could lead to slick travel across Central Washington overnight into Friday morning. As of 8 pm Stampede Pass was reporting light freezing rain and 32 degrees, with 32 degrees and light snow at Stevens Pass according to WSDOT pass report. With the dendritic layer fairly dry, suspect a wide variety of precipitation types mainly in the form of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light snow will continue through the night with temperatures not expected to drop in this area much from current readings. Light drizzle will be possible through 12z for KEAT but temperatures look to remain just above freezing. Winthrop could experience several hours of freezing drizzle.
A broad high pressure currently stretches from the northern plains into the central Great Lakes and is resulting in north to northeast winds. This will support highs mostly in the low 30s. With some expectation of breaks in the clouds late tonight, forecast lows should come in around the low low to mid 20s. Lower level wind direction starts to shift to the northwest on Saturday as low level ridge axis pivots over the region.
137 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure situated over the Great Lakes region will dominate our weather through the weekend with quiet dry conditions and near average temperatures. For later today (Friday), drier air currently over the Canadian Shield will begin to filter in from the north behind a weak low-level trough. Drier air will begin to filter into the area as a blocking pattern breaks down, and this will at least partially scour out the low stratus over the area, especially heading into Saturday as low level flow shifts more to the N and NNE. Cloud cover slightly increases throughout the afternoon as daytime temps will range from the low 30s across the Finger Lakes region to the high 30s in NEPA. Nighttime temps will range from the low teens to low 20s.
1102 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Plenty of low stratus remains in place across the region this afternoon on the back side of the mid to upper level low currently located over northern Mississippi.
323 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure situated over the Great Lakes region will dominate our weather through the weekend with quiet dry conditions and near average temperatures. For later today (Friday), drier air currently over the Canadian Shield will begin to filter in from the north behind a weak low-level trough.
Ascent is increasing over far southeast MT, in a region with lower surface wet bulb temps (mid-upper 20s), so snow will have an easier time accumulating especially over the higher hills. The hills surrounding town should see a dusting tonight (maybe 1/2"), but the city will struggle to accumulate at all w/ surface temps hanging in the low 30s.
This will remain in place for much of the morning, possibly lifting to just shy of VFR ceilings early afternoon, then becoming broken and lifting to VFR as the low levels begin to dry by the evening hours Friday. A cutoff upper level low continues to track east across the Tennessee Valley tonight, moving into the Mid-Atlantic states for Friday. It will take some time to dry out the low levels of the atmosphere which has been responsible for our overcast cloud cover that will likely linger through much of the day tomorrow. As such, temperatures will drop much lower Friday night, with lows generally in the upper 20's across eastern MS and western AL to the lower 30's elsewhere.
A cutoff upper level low continues to track east across the Tennessee Valley tonight, moving into the Mid-Atlantic states for Friday. It will take some time to dry out the low levels of the atmosphere which has been responsible for our overcast cloud cover that will likely linger through much of the day tomorrow. As such, temperatures will drop much lower Friday night, with lows generally in the upper 20's across eastern MS and western AL to the lower 30's elsewhere.
Highs clouds on the northern periphery of the low have now spread across most of the forecast area, with a lower cloud deck underneath that looks like it may sustain itself underneath a subsidence inversion around 2,000 feet. Temperatures will only gradually rise today with minimal insolation and north/northeast flow such that highs will be around the mid 30s for most locations, and slightly colder for the ridges. Warmer air pushing in from the east is causing an east to west decay of the stratocu layer. slowly scattering out the low cloud deck at most ports by dawn. Confidence is low that FKL and ZZV will scatter out as the warmer air aloft may not make it that far west.
Tried to show improving ceilings, low VFR ceilings and a scattering out of the low cloud cover across most locations as we move into the afternoon hours on Friday. 03z temperatures are running some 2-6 degrees warmer than 03z forecast temps however and for this reason, did bump hourly temps up a few degrees as well as overnight low temps.
300mb RAP mesoanalysis suggests increased divergence across the region in association with a closed low to the south of the forecast area. However, with continued dry, nrly flow advected from Great Lakes high pressure, expect nothing more than continued cloud cover through the day. MGW may be the only terminal that escapes this low cloud layer and achieves VFR by afternoon as just enough drier air builds in, but only slight improvement to MVFR at best is expected elsewhere today. Only once the upper low to our south pulls away, and ridging returns, will the process of significant scouring of the low clouds begin.
Current webcams show areas of dense fog across portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota this morning, lining up well with the the higher HREF probabilities for <1 and 1/2 mi visibility. Time of day/sfc temperature will determine the potential for dz vs fzdz, and the Prairie Coteau and areas east should stay near or below freezing throughout the day today. The James Valley and areas west should remain near or above freezing through much of the day, however. Cooler air is expected to move in across the board tonight, leading to better potential for slick conditions in any areas of fog/drizzle (lows in the mid-20s).
642 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure situated over the Great Lakes region will dominate our weather through the weekend with quiet dry conditions and near average temperatures. For later today (Friday), drier air currently over the Canadian Shield will begin to filter in from the north behind a weak low-level trough.
245 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Trough continues to sweep to the east this morning, with some wraparound energy bringing some light snow across far northern WY currently. Models continue to produce very light snow through about midmorning for the eastern Big Horn Basin and the Big Horn Mountains until the trough moves farther east. Expect 1 to 2 inches for the higher elevations of the western mountains between midnight and sunrise Saturday, while areas of southern Sweetwater County will see around an inch or so between sunrise and noon Saturday. General ridging will keep temperatures seasonal to slightly warmer than normal with 700mb temps in the -2 to -6 range, depending on which model you look at.
Weak surface easterly upslope flow is present with near freezing temps in the east and already slowly falling temps in the mid 20s west, all under widespread low stratus clouds from central Kansas into southeast Colorado. A few locations have d developed 1/4 to 1/2 sm visibility on fog/freezing fog this morning and we will monitor for further development however the setup doesn't look favorable for widespread fog of a more broad area. Temperatures this afternoon will be largely relegated to the upper 30s to near 40 degrees in central Kansas where the low stratus will continue to linger through the day and into this evening.
Seasonable high temperatures are expected with most locations seeing highs around 40 although some H85 CAA and clouds may keep southeast KS on the cooler side.
High pressure will move east today, allowing a weak storm system to cross the region tonight through early Saturday.
A window of clearing skies later this evening into early Saturday morning, will drop temperatures into the low 20s for most locations by early Saturday morning.
A brief break in the clouds for portions of northeast Kansas early this morning, as surface ridging continues to nose southward into the area behind the departing eastern upper low. Clear skies and light winds may still bring some patchy freezing fog and a few slick spots this early this morning. Once again some early morning surface ridging could bring some patchy fog, however with most of the snowmelt past, and less insolation for evaporation into the boundary layer today, chances will reside with what saturation can occur despite cloud cover. The next stronger upper low to move into the central US takes a track to our west then south before lifting into the Appalachians for the early week.
934 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure over the Upper Midwest will remain the key player across the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
High pressure will last through the day and keep conditions dry, and it looks like it will delay the onset of our next round of precipitation until Saturday morning. Snow amounts have thus been decreased to just an inch or two across Clearwater and Idaho counties, save for the higher elevations above 5000 feet where up to 5 inches of snow will be possible.
539 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 (Today and tonight) Relatively deep moisture profile in the lower levels of the atmosphere not expected to change much today with little in the way of flow, so clouds expected to hang tough over most of the area until late in the day. Will go on the lower side of guidance for highs today, and with at least some clearing or thinning of cloud cover possible tonight, will not go far from model blend lows.
As the upper trough gradually moves away, there will be a chance of light rain in the northeast. The upper trough continues to move out of the area, but guidance shows clouds hanging on through the short term.
Areas of freezing fog may develop this morning as moistures shoves west into the cold airmass in place. This fog should dissipate around 10-11am with temperatures warming above freezing by then. An upper low over the Southeast U. will lift north today while surface ridging builds south across the central CONUS. We will likely see areas of fog and drizzle develop overnight and, as temperatures drop below freezing, slick spots may develop on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Increasing lift and large scale ascent will spread across the region Saturday night as the upper low deepens and approaches SE NM and W TX.
212 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Satellite and 500mb RAP analysis showed a closed low centered across the Tennessee River Valley overnight, with upper ridging along the western part of the CONUS. Temperatures ranged from the low 20s to the low 30s across the region. Temperatures climb into the upper 30s to low 40s, with the cooler temperatures in the northeastern part of the region where cloud cover lingers through the day. A weak upper ridge passes over and temperatures fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. Through the day, an upper trough dives from Utah southeast towards New Mexico. This disturbance seems to be tracking a bit closer to the High Plains, becoming a closed low over the Four Corners region. Otherwise, low temperatures look to be a bit cooler, in the upper teens to low 20s.
Thus have temperatures holding in the lower 40s across the Big Country. It will be cool across the remainder of the area as well with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some of the high res model guidance is hinting at patchy fog development toward daybreak.
/issued 352 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Most early morning temperatures across the Midsouth are above freezing. Moderate cold air advection will likely result in 2-3 degrees of additional cooling before sunrise resulting in morning lows in the low to middle 30s. A strongly positively tilted trough will track out of the Central Plains approaching the Mississippi River near Memphis Saturday morning.
254 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper level low passing through the region this morning based on latest GOES water vapor imagery. Highest accumulation of up to a inch with locally higher along the Pine Ridge across Wyoming and Nebraska with under half an inch for Rawlins and Laramie area this morning. Forecast remains generally on track for descending upper level trough through the region. Given the localized terrain influences and forcing, model solutions in disagreement regarding the Pine Ridge from Niobrara County in Wyoming into Dawes County, Nebraska. While current forecast has up to near an inch there, depending on how quickly the trough digs into CO, could potentially see some higher localized totals. Northwest flow and overall mid-level ridging in the wake of the trough into the start of the work week.
Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the mid 40s today with overnight lows forecast to fall below freezing, ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. With high pressure anchored across Oklahoma and north Texas, cold air advection will continue, allowing for continued cold temperatures ranging from highs on Saturday in the 40s to lows on Saturday night in the upper 20s to lower 30.
Mountain ridges and passes could see continued flurries this morning as well. A small ridge aloft will move across our forecast area tonight keeping conditions dry.
Here locally between these two features, widespread cloud cover persists primarily from the low passing by to the south. Flurry/light snow chances spread further south and east today and tonight as winds turn more northerly, pulling the low-level moisture further south into central Illinois. Forecast soundings paint the low stratus once again in that lower bound of the dendritic growth zone with some overlap of omega (~ -10 ubar/sec), steep lapse rates, and perhaps some broad mid-level lift at play from pieces of vorticity rotating around the aforementioned upper low.
640 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 With a persistent split flow pattern across the CONUS leading to ridging overhead between the jet streams, it's a persistence forecast today and tonight. With the low ceiling in place, there won't be much of a diurnal range to temps today. Used 60% of yesterday's obs grid MaxT for today's highs given the stagnant pattern, which results in temps peaking in the low 30s this afternoon - only a few degrees warmer than morning lows.
637 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure over the Upper Midwest will remain the key player across the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
522 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with high pressure in control over the region. Expect high temperatures to be generally in the lower to middle 60s across the area. Coastal locations and Rio Grande Plains will be a bit warmer, in the lower 40s. Slightly cooler 850 temps Saturday will result in temperatures a bit cooler than today.
The weather will be dry tonight through the day Saturday under weak high pressure and increasing offshore flow.
601 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 LIFR conditions are expected until 9 AM CST with freezing fog developing across locations on the Caprock, including the terminals at KLBB and KPVW. A window of clearing skies later this evening into early Saturday morning, will drop temperatures into the low 20s for most locations by early Saturday morning.
The upper level pattern will gradually transition to zonal flow today and tonight and then the next upper level low will dig a trough northwest of the area on Saturday. Cooler today, with high temperatures only forecast in the 50s across the northeast half of the CWA and low 60s across the southwest. 925-850mb southeasterly to southerly flow will develop tonight across western areas and on Saturday across eastern areas, in response to the aforementioned digging trough. This will lead to isentropic ascent and the development of stratus from southwest to northeast on Saturday, resulting in even cooler high temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast only in the low to mid 50s area wide, with some cooler guidance suggesting locations along the Rio Grande and western Hill Country only in the upper 40s.
Moisture remains trapped in the low levels beneath an inversion, but at least there is some drier air arriving in the boundary layer to inhibit fog formation.
High pressure remains the dominate influence moving into Saturday night, with partly cloudy skies and fairly light winds leading to a cooler temperatures around 5 or so degrees cooler than the previous night.
/Issued 341 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Greatest focus remains in the near term as there is still an expected rain to snow transition confined to the far northern CWA as upper low and cooling temps aloft track eastward across the TN Valley and western Carolinas today. With updated QPF ranging from one to three tenths of an inch, such ratios are in line with around or a bit lower than 1-3 inches of fcst snow accumulations sticking in the higher elevations where sfc temps should be around the freezing mark and possibly aided by diabatic effects of periods of any heavier snow. Quiet and dry ridge dominated Saturday on tap with continued enhanced NW gradient sfc winds. Temps staying below normal for most areas with little change from today other than some warmer values in the eastern CWA.
A couple of upper level lows work their way through the lower/mid MS River Valley during the period. One will pass by to the southeast of the forecast area today and tonight, followed by another weaker trof digging southeast into the region by Saturday. Some of the CAMs models, including the HRRR, hint at some rain and/or snow shower potential today on the back side of the departing upper level low, but even if that occurs, temps will be above freezing and the precip should be quite light. Another much weaker short wave trof will then slide southeast toward the region on Saturday.
409 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Recent KBYX radar imagery shows scattered showers over the Eastern Straits of Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. However, as winds have veered southwesterly over the last several hours, the low- level winds have become largely unidirectional.
403 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper level low passing through the region this morning based on latest GOES water vapor imagery. Highest accumulation of up to a inch with locally higher along the Pine Ridge across Wyoming and Nebraska with under half an inch for Rawlins and Laramie area this morning. Forecast remains generally on track for descending upper level trough through the region. Given the localized terrain influences and forcing, model solutions in disagreement regarding the Pine Ridge from Niobrara County in Wyoming into Dawes County, Nebraska. While current forecast has up to near an inch there, depending on how quickly the trough digs into CO, could potentially see some higher localized totals. Northwest flow and overall mid-level ridging in the wake of the trough into the start of the work week.
No snow accumulation is expected as precipitation will be light and short lived, plus temperatures will be above the freezing mark late this morning and this afternoon.
403 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 With a persistent split flow pattern across the CONUS leading to ridging overhead between the jet streams, it's a persistence forecast today and tonight. With the low ceiling in place, there won't be much of a diurnal range to temps today. Used 60% of yesterday's obs grid MaxT for today's highs given the stagnant pattern, which results in temps peaking in the low 30s this afternoon - only a few degrees warmer than morning lows.
Radar observations indicate the band of showers associated with the weak cold front that passed through the local area overnight have now pushed south and east of the area, with the front itself located over southern Florida. Cooler air will begin filtering in tonight, with morning low temperatures falling to near 40 degrees in Lake and Volusia Counties.
Another mild day before a storm system brushing by to our northeast brings gusty winds and cooler temperatures over the weekend. A ridge building in from the eastern Pacific through the desert southwest will push temperatures back to above average by mid week.
The only exception will be on Saturday when a dry cold frontal passage will bring breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
(Today and tonight) Relatively deep moisture profile in the lower levels of the atmosphere not expected to change much today with little in the way of flow, so clouds expected to hang tough over most of the area until late in the day. Will go on the lower side of guidance for highs today, and with at least some clearing or thinning of cloud cover possible tonight, will not go far from model blend lows.
Expect high temperatures to be generally in the lower to middle 60s across the area. Coastal locations and Rio Grande Plains will be a bit warmer, in the lower 40s. Slightly cooler 850 temps Saturday will result in temperatures a bit cooler than today.