Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015/ This morning there is an upper ridge centered over Texas with a cut off low over Southern California. As this low rolls east it will displace the ridge southward to South Texas/Northern Mexico but will not be strong enough to completely dislodge it. As the low moves down the east side of the ridge the center of the ridge will shift westward. Without the ridge becoming entrenched over the area W TX and SE NM should be able to avoid the hottest wx. The upper ridge has not been strong enough to squash convection. The last few days have had good coverage of afternoon storms across the higher elevations from the Big Bend up to Artesia.
SO HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AS AM CONCERNED ABOUT CLEARING POTENTIAL.
549 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE AROUND TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. OTRWS SFC RIDGING BRIDGES QUICKLY SEWD ACRS THE ERN LAKES THIS PD. CAA WEDGE ACRS SRN WI EWD THROUGH CNTRL MI WILL CONT TO SPREAD SWD AS FLW VEERS ARND TO ERLY ON SAT AND RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER WX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD COMPARED TO TDA.
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY.
HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
343 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA.
352 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE COAST PRODUCING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
309 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
152 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION OF TEXAS REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE CWA UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE SW CONUS.
1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AROUND ITS EASTERN EDGE AND INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALREADY AND HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WHILST UA RIDGING CONTINUED TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH DESPITE AN UA RIDGE OVERHEAD /AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND/. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. WHILST THE UA RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED A BIT EAST OF THE CWA.
439 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THANKS TO TS ANDRES AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA.
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/ UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ASHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PANHANDLES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTHWEST OHIO.
WITH A SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
545 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE SATURDAY.
1024 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday mainly over the lower Idaho Panhandle. Dry and much warmer weather is expected through the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region.
A NEARBY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
Longwave pattern continues to feature upper trough across the West and ridging across the southern Plains. KS remains on the northern periphery of the ridge today with residual sfc boundaries in place southwest of the CWA. Exact initiation location remains uncertain but any storms Sat should move ENE given stronger synoptic forcing so will keep storm chcs limited to areas near the state line and areas along I-70 dry but warmer and breezy.
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE BRIEF NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW MORE SPOTS STAYING CLOSE TO 80 SATURDAY. EXPECTING LOWS TO GENERALLY DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSTHIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
611 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY.
A RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH HEIGHT RISES NOTED AT H5. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THE LEE OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT THEY ARE DEFINITELY CONTINUING TO TREND WARMER AND MORE HUMID.
400 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TOWARDS OUR SOUTH. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PASSES THROUGH BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
VERY SPOTTY MAINLY SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND THE ERN EDGES OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPARENT WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT. STAYED A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THESE NUMBERS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY AFTER SUNSET.
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS MCS SHOULD ENCOUNTER DIFFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST OVERTOP UPPER RIDGE. WARRANTING SPC ISSUED MARGINAL RISK AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY WARMER AND WETTER (HUMIDITY) CONDITIONS.
HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NW KS/NORTHEAST CO.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THEN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW OVER CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS LOW MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
At 2pm EDT a weak surface trof stretched from Cleveland to Indianapolis to Kansas City. As this trof sinks southward this evening it may provide enough forcing to spark a few showers or a thunderstorm or two. Low temperatures for tonight are somewhat tricky, given our cooler than expected temps last night and a light north breeze tonight. Will aim for lower and middle 60s, but wouldn't be surprised if we ended up getting a little cooler than that. Saturday will be dry as we sit on the edge of a dome of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the lower and middle 80s. Lows will again center around the lower 60s.
332 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOCAL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO CANADA INTO NEW YORK STATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL VEER TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
428 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PASSES THROUGH BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 1042 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS COULD APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.
SAGGING COLD FRONT AND WEAK WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE NIGHT.
406 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE SATURDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE AS MOIST ELY FLOW HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE DIVIDE TO PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL JUICE WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS A NICE THERMAL TROUGH IS LIFTING NWD AT MAX HEATING. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO UTAH AND A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER RAINY DAY WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT AND QG FORCING LIFTS UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
130 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH A LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS MORNING AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SWINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. INITIAL WAVE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WE PRIME THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CELLS BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
402 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE SATURDAY.
624 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOCAL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO CANADA INTO NEW YORK STATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CALIF AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND.
334 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
Although the model signals are not as strong as the past couple of days, organized convection is forecast to once again develop over the high plains of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska this evening then congeal into another MCS possibly approaching the area well after midnight. Upper low over the southwest US begins to fill and move out into the Rockies.
316 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTHWEST OHIO.
1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST REGIONS TODAY WITH A RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES REALIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
AND ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG A LAKE ENHANCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS INT THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH. TO AROUND 60 SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST.
A COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW WHILE AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILS. 500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH SAT AS A PAIR OF STRONG 500 MB TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE U.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CA. WITH 12C+ MOISTURE AXIS RIGHT UP THE HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOMEWHERE AROUND SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEB. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH A POTENTIAL EXITING MCS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA.
With the upper ridge still progged to build back to the north and shift a bit to the east later tonight into Saturday, the overall chances for storms looks to lessen a bit.
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
244 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-70. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE PLAINS WEATHER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE THE PLAINS COLD FRONT WORKS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH, ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LEE TROUGH AND WEAK DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA.
126 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EXTREME EAST. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO CANADA INTO NEW YORK STATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RIDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
651 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE TX/MEXICO AREA WAS HELPING WITH DRYING FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EVEN WARMER PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGING OVER TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD.
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE SURROUNDING WATERS ISLAND CHAIN.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD YIELD A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
403 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT DISPLACED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS FLORIDA. WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT CENTERING AROUND RISING TEMPERATURES /AND HEAT INDICES/ WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THESE FEATURES WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
244 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT RIDGE AMPLIFICATION NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE A LARGE CLOSED LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN CALI AND NEVADA. BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1149 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 The upper low that has been sitting over Mexico and creating massive flood issues along the southern states will finally begin to eject northward into Texas by Saturday. with the first lifting north through the CWA during the morning hours and the second round holding off until Saturday afternoon as the trough swings northeastward into Arkansas.
1020 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 LINE OF STORMS OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE CWFA STARTING TO RAMP UP A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX.
LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY. RAINS WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW EXITS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S TX FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ RAINS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND GETS CAUGHT IN THE STREAM THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY OUT OF THE REGION TOWARDS SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
359 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
DRY AIR OVER OUR AREA AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS IN MORTON AND MERCER COUNTIES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A QUIET AND DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK OVER OTHER AREAS. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. RIDGE AXIS WORKS EASTERLY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
155 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED JUST TO THE EAST. RIDGING WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REGION OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE TNGT. WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S COAST TO THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND. LOWS TNGT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
1245 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS CENTER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR AUSTIN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE TOWARDS EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO ARKANSAS AND THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
1211 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THEN WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
204 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S).
1239 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
Regardless of the details, expect warmer- than-normal conditions with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.
A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT THESE CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. /ISSUED 1025 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ A MUCH WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE STILL NOT QUITE DONE WITH WET STUFF JUST YET AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWD INTO CNTRL TX.
/06Z TAFS/ UPPER LOW CENTER IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF SAT AND MOVING NNE.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.