Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, high pressure will prevail with afternoon highs in the 50s to lower 60s. High cloudiness will work into the region tonight as an upper trough moves into the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies. The trough will move across our CWA Friday with rain and mountain snow showers developing west of Billings by midday. Temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s Friday ahead of the trough axis, and generally only drop into the 30s to lower 40s Friday night as the system exits to the east.
414 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front will finally move across the area today and bring showers and storms this morning, although some lingering showers are possible this afternoon.
High pressure will begin to build into the area today, with a fairly strong pressure gradient leading to some gusty northwesterly winds at times. High pressure will slide off to the east on Friday, with southeasterly flow on the back side bringing in a bit of moisture.
447 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Drier and cooler weather will be short-lived today.
443 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather will close the week as high pres builds in response to another, and deeper upstream trough.
The first trough brought localized 1-2 inches of snow across northwestern SD, but is now moving away. The second trough has sparked a few thunderstorms over eastern WY, and these may affect northeastern WY yet this afternoon. Otherwise, this trough should bring scattered showers across the area through early evening before being overtaken by strong downward motion on the backside. Model ensembles indicate ridging on Thursday with a return southeast surface flow. It will become breezy during the day and then more windy Thursday night and Friday ahead of the next upper trough as 850-mb winds reach near 50 kt. The trough will move through Friday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with some snow possible over northeastern WY.
Dry conditions will persist at least across the lower deserts resulting in continued clear to mostly clear skies each day, with any precipitation chances expected to remain well east of south-central Arizona. this weekend, and give way to a highly amplified upper ridge centered over the Great Basin.
318 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather will close the week as high pres builds in response to another, and deeper upstream trough.
Clouds will begin to clear by Thursday afternoon, but with the cool Canadian air mass in place, afternoon temperatures will be confined to the low to mid 50s. Those along the Coteau des Prairies and Buffalo Ridge may see some patchy frost at sunrise Friday.
257 AM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Synoptic Setup: A cold core trough over the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces is slowly being ejected to the east out of Montana. A ridge is filling in behind it running from Colorado through western Montana and up into northern Alberta. Farther west, another trough sets over the coasts of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest with a large ridge coupleted to it yet farther west. Today and tonight, ridge moving in is gradually pressing down on the cold, moister air remaining at the surface in the wake of the exiting trough. With skies clearing and a ridge incoming, highs should warm more than yesterday with area wide 50s anticipated.
253 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Mid-level heights will rebound today into tonight in the wake of a strong upper low tracking into the Great Lakes, and downstream from an amplifying trough over the western CONUS.
216 AM MDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A weak upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the region today, allowing for slightly warmer air to move into the region.
The low level return flow will lead to a enough surface warm air advection to nudge temperatures over 70 in far southern sections.
356 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 As of 08Z Thursday morning the stout midlevel ridge remains across the southeastern US with broad troughing in the west. Speaking of the strong cold front, it's currently positioned from the TX Panhandle through the mid-MS valley region. Surface ridging should remain overhead through the night yielding light winds with lows in the 40s and 50s. Furthermore, a midlevel trough is progged to traverse the Central/Northern Rockies Friday.
1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 VFR conditions currently in place will remain so through the early morning ahead of a cold front that is currently pushing into the TX Panhandle. Behind the front, ceilings will fall into the low MVFR and potentially IFR conditions but confidence is low on the IFR range and will hold on to MVFR for now. Any precipitation will come to an end by this afternoon and we may see ceilings try to climb back into the high MVFR to VFR range. The upper pattern is still progged to break down heading into the weekend as upper level short wave energy ejects from the intermountain West, initially flattening the upper ridge then shifting it eastward before a ridge redevelops over northwestern Mexico that then amplifies northward.
Calm-light and VRB winds with low temperatures in the low-mid 70s is expected overnight. At the moment, KCXO, KSGR, and KLBX have the highest risk for lower vis/cigs. A mid to upper level low is expected to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the east coasts of Mexico Thursday. This will help retreat mid level high pressure to the east of the CWA and in turn create a more favorable environment for shower development particularly during peak heating in the afternoon.
/10/ No major changes were needed to the ongoing forecast as highly anomalous ridging and warmth remain in control of our weather. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 70s areawide. A weak disturbance in the rotation around the southside of the upper ridge will help to kick off some storm/shower activity in the southern portions of the region.
Early morning temperatures on Thursday will be around or below freezing for some locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Keep your gardens covered if you are in these cold pockets of the High Country. Over the weekend, winds will back off and generally be light as a ridge begins to build over the Southwest.
322 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front shifted through southern Missouri overnight which forced a few showers over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 60s out by Fort Scott to the low 80s in the West Plains region.
Cold front located north of I-44 at this time will continue to push south into sern OK and west central AR tonight, and across remainder of area early Thursday morning. The much anticipated cold front was positioned from the Texas Panhandle through Northwest/North Central Oklahoma just west of Osage county of Northeast Oklahoma to Southeastern Kansas and Central Missouri this evening. the cold front will continue to make its way into the CWA reaching the Interstate 44 corridor around 06z and and near a line from Eufaula to Bentonville around 12z Thursday morning. With the cold front forecast to be across East Central Oklahoma to far Northwest Arkansas by early Thursday morning. have adjusted hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/pop/wx/wind grids to account for the movement of the cold front and to account for latest trends and observations.
High pressure ridge remains across the southeast US with subsidence aloft and plenty of sunshine with virtually little chance for precipitation today.
A subtle weakness in the underside of the ridge will enable isolated to scattered showers/storms to develop this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-20. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s.
The low level east to northeast flow will persist, but with the gradient weakening some we should see the west coast sea breeze try to develop near the coast during the mid to late afternoon hours both days.
446 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather will close the week as high pres builds in response to another, and deeper upstream trough.
A light snow and rain mix will quickly decrease between 10-12 UTC across northwest and north central North Dakota as the upper level low propagates into northern Minnesota.
Winds then shift to more of a southeasterly direction tonight as the area of high pressure moves eastward. As for temperatures, highs today look to only reach into the upper 50s to low 60s with lows tonight in the lower 50s to around 50 degrees.
Dry southwest flow aloft will help produce an even warmer day at most locations. Temperatures will continue to rise as our counties remain in the warm sector much of the day ahead of the next cold front.
Otherwise, the main story will be the much cooler temperatures. Highs today will be about 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday in many locations with temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to upper 70s from northwest to southeast.
The cold front responsible for this drop has pushed through KCDS, will arrive shortly after the TAFs go into effect at KPVW, and after 13Z at KLBB. KCDS may remain on the high side of IFR into MVFR range. /issued 422 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ A cold front had made it through the central TX Panhandle as of 8Z, with temps in the 50s behind it, upper 60s to 70s ahead. The high pressure off to our east has really taken on the appearance of a pancake over the SE U.
826 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Record heat is forecast again today due to the influence of the upper ridge.
Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge continues over the southeast U. with an upper trough over the western U. A cold front will move into northwest Arkansas this morning. Warmth will continue ahead of the front with the much cooler air behind the front.
643 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front has moved into north Arkansas and will continue to move southeast today. Cooler and drier air will follow the front, along with northwest winds becoming north. Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge continues over the southeast U. with an upper trough over the western U. A cold front will move into northwest Arkansas this morning. Warmth will continue ahead of the front with the much cooler air behind the front.
A trough of low pressure extending from the extreme Northwest Caribbean Sea northward into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico will move slowly westward, as a modest region of high pressure settles down the Sunshine State. A massive western Atlantic ridge extending across the Southeast United States will retreat eastward, before another continental region of high pressure over the nations midsection will slide quickly into the Eastern United States including the Florida Peninsula. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the western portion of the Florida Keys adjacent to the Lower Keys out to beyond Dry Tortugas for at least this morning, elsewhere, mainly east winds near 15 knots will persist for the balance of our marine district through tonight.
Deep layer easterly flow indicates that a mid and upper level ridge remains parked to the north of the forecast area. As a result, cloud development will be suppressed to the lowest 10k feet of the atmosphere today.
455 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A couple of weather challenges await the short term portion of the forecast, but the overall trend will be for drier and gradually warmer conditions to set in the next 24 to 36 hours.
A weak upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the region today, allowing for slightly warmer air to move into the region.
As of 08Z Thursday morning the stout midlevel ridge remains across the southeastern US with broad troughing in the west. Speaking of the strong cold front, it's currently positioned from the TX Panhandle through the mid-MS valley region. Surface ridging should remain overhead through the night yielding light winds with lows in the 40s and 50s. Furthermore, a midlevel trough is progged to traverse the Central/Northern Rockies Friday.
Otherwise, deep layer high pressure ridging centered north of Florida will continue to be the dominant feature for our weather with deep onshore flow. Tonight onshore winds will diminish with min temps falling to near 70 to L70s along the coast/barrier islands and M-U60s into the interior to include normally cooler rural locations.
619 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Record heat is forecast across the area again today due to the influence of the upper ridge.
GOES-16 water vapor data show drier mid level air entraining into the southern side of the closed upper low, causing rain and snow to end across the southeast ND and west central MN already. As the upper low progresses eastward and drier air continues to build into the region, expect precipitation to end a bit sooner than anticipated and to clear out of the region by mid morning.
While several degrees warmer than yesterday, today's temps are roughly 10 degrees cooler than what normal highs are for early October. We see flow aloft transition southwest ahead of an approaching upper trough from the Pacific Northwest. Friday is shaping up to be cloudy and cool, with rain showers around in continued lift/warm air advection ahead of the western trough.
A cold front will sweep across the area today, spreading cooler temperatures and less humid air from north to south through the day. It will still be warm across south central and southeast Indiana with high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s before the cold front arrives. High pressure will move in tonight and help low temperatures drop into the 50s with some upper 40s expected over west central Indiana.
417 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Cold front has pushed into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and extends from near Rogers to Okmulgee and southwest to the OKC metro.
There should be some clearing this evening into overnight as high pressure approaches. Skies should start out mostly sunny Friday with high pressure overhead, though there could be some lake effect clouds that move into the east for the afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 69 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 97 67 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 97 66 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 62 81 55 / 0 0 0 0.
/Issued 417 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ Cold front has pushed into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and extends from near Rogers to Okmulgee and southwest to the OKC metro.
301 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the West Coast will provide the area with dry weather through the period. The developing ridge will allow for the warming trend in temperatures after the passage of a cold front this Thursday.
521 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 The high pressure yesterday produced after temperatures into the low to mid 90s and this will again happen today. The broad high pressure that has been anchored over the region will slip off to the northeast and off the US coast.
724 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Drier and cooler weather will be short-lived today.
748 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather will close the week as high pres builds in response to another, and deeper upstream trough.
Weak cold front in WA and OR is moving east and will bring light rain/snow showers to our CWA tonight and Friday morning, mainly in northern areas.
Warmer today with breezy conditions this afternoon. A weak cold front moves through tonight through Friday morning, with showers possible mainly north of I80. Cooler Friday, with gusty northwest winds in eastern Nevada. A weak cold front will move across the state tonight through Friday morning. It is looking like this low qpf front will keep showers north of I-80. Snow levels drop along and behind the front to around 5500 feet and there may be some very light accumulations in the higher elevations of northern Elko County, with some flakes in the higher valleys.
A couple of weather challenges await the short term portion of the forecast, but the overall trend will be for drier and gradually warmer conditions to set in the next 24 to 36 hours.
Skies will become sunny today as the upper trough lifts into the Northern Great Lakes. Highs today will warm to the low 60s west and southwest, to the mid 50s northeast. For tonight, an upper trough will digs across the Pacific Northwest with moisture lifting northward from the Southern Plains. On Friday, The upper trough will move across the northern and Central Rockies, with a disturbance in southwest flow to bring a chance for showers to the southeastern half of the area through the day. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday night as the upper trough moves into the Northern and Central Plains. This will drive a clod front the trough the area overnight. The best thunderstorm chances will occur along the cold front. Ascent with the approaching upper trough along with steep lapse rates will support elevated thunderstorms.
633 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 The high pressure yesterday produced afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 90s and this will again happen today. The broad high pressure that has been anchored over the region will slip off to the northeast and off the US coast.
/issued 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019/ The high pressure yesterday produced afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 90s and this will again happen today. The broad high pressure that has been anchored over the region will slip off to the northeast and off the US coast.
A trough digging down from the Pacific Northwest will shift through the Great Basin today through Friday night. As the trough continues to shift east, winds will transition to more south and east of I-15 on Friday, though they should be less than this afternoon's winds.
Cooler, Below-Average Temperatures Arrive For Many Locations The first fall cold front of season is slowly moving to the south this morning. Behind the cold front, frontogenetic forcing/isentropic ascent at ~850 mb has resulted in a narrow zone of showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma. Otherwise, the cold front will continue to move through the entire area today. Therefore, opted to trend toward the cooler ECMWF and NAM for high temperatures Friday (rather than the GFS). Some showers and isolated storms may occur with an attendant increase in isentropic ascent as the cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front.
905 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front will sweep across the area today. However, there will be a slight warm up over the weekend before another cold front moves through the area. A cold front will move into the northwest counties late this morning and progress across the area through the afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight with the center of the high moving into the Great Lakes on Friday.
630 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front shifted through southern Missouri overnight which forced a few showers over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 60s out by Fort Scott to the low 80s in the West Plains region.
638 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Mid-level heights will rebound today into tonight in the wake of a strong upper low tracking into the Great Lakes, and downstream from an amplifying trough over the western CONUS.
422 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front had made it through the central TX Panhandle as of 8Z, with temps in the 50s behind it, upper 60s to 70s ahead. The high pressure off to our east has really taken on the appearance of a pancake over the SE U.
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019 A cold front will finally move across the area today and bring showers and storms this morning, although some lingering showers are possible this afternoon.
The Remnants of Tropical Storm Narda will move through the Southwest United States as another large scale trough begins to move across the Western US and integrates the moisture into its flow. Going into the weekend, wind speeds look to decrease as zonal flow behind the trough develops under the influence of a large scale ridge.
North to northeast winds around 15 kt with some stronger gusts will accompany a cold front currently moving into north TX.
Weak high pressure has moved over the Northern Rockies early this morning. But it's residence over the region will be short lived as yet another unseasonably cold low pressure system is quickly approaching the Pacific Northwest. Models seem to have accelerated the next weather system a bit, moving light rain showers into NW Montana as early as late this afternoon with the slow northeast drift of a weak warm front. The attendant surface cold front with this system is still expected to pass across the Northern Rockies Friday morning. Even Deer Lodge, Anaconda and Butte proper could see around an inch of snow Friday morning depending upon where the more intense showers develop as the cold front moves east.
Upper high remains over the mid-south once again today, but a weak cool front is lurking just northwest. Winds will increase to 7-10 kts and veer to the north today as a cold front moves through the terminals.
Given the cloud cover and dewpoint forecast overnight will lean towards temperature a few degrees warmer than we had earlier this morning (Thursday morning), especially in the north. As for highs on Friday the highs will be warmer given compared to today (Thursday), especially in the west where more afternoon sunshine is expected and based on a warm front lifting north across southwest Kansas during the day.
307 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Increasing surface pressure and cooler/drier air will continue to build southward into the region tonight into Friday. Higher level moisture will continue to stream over the area so we should lose the low clouds while maintaining the higher level clouds. That high pressure area will move into the Ohio valley.
Building ridge aloft will bring sunny and dry conditions today, with temps returning to the 50s or low 60s. Southerly winds along the western foothills and the Clarks Fork near Belfry have been somewhat elevated early this morning due to lee side surface troffing, and have adjusted winds a bit. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail with afternoon highs in the 50s to lower 60s. High cloudiness will work into the region tonight as an upper trough moves into the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies. The trough will move across our CWA Friday with rain and mountain snow showers developing west of Billings by midday. Temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s Friday ahead of the trough axis, and generally only drop into the 30s to lower 40s Friday night as the system exits to the east.
Cloud cover over northwest Oklahoma and adjacent areas appears more persistent than models are forecasting, so leaned toward maintaining cooler temperatures in that area. North to northeast winds around 15 kt with some stronger gusts will accompany a cold front currently moving into north TX.
Cooler air is moving into central Indiana in the wake of a cold front, and high pressure will bring pleasant weather to the area for the next couple of days.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: A cold core trough over the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces is slowly being ejected to the east out of Montana. A ridge is filling in behind it running from Colorado through western Montana and up into northern Alberta. Farther west, another trough sets over the coasts of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest with a large ridge coupleted to it yet farther west. Today and tonight, ridge moving in is gradually pressing down on the cold, moister air remaining at the surface in the wake of the exiting trough. With skies clearing and a ridge incoming, highs should warm more than yesterday with area wide 50s anticipated.
255 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019 Cold front continues to move south across the area this afternoon with it currently located from Denver City to Welch to Snyder. Temperatures have remained quite cool behind the front with locations around Muleshoe reporting mid 50's as of early this afternoon with warmer temperatures to the south of the front in the low 80's.