Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures were in the 50s and lower 60s across the plains and I- 25 corridor and upper 30s to 40s across the high valleys and mountains. Winds were fairly light, except across the high country in some spots. Today: An upper low, currently centered over southern Nevada, will move into western Utah by late in the day spreading showers and storms eastward. Showers and storms will be most prevalent across the high country and western portion of the CWA early, but then spread through the rest of the area as the night progresses.
High pressure will build over the region today into Tuesday with a noted warming trend.
Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows an upper level disturbance over the New England states with trof down into the eastern US. Meanwhile, another significant upper level low is noted over southern California. In-between the two, an upper level ridge is noted from northern old Mexico into the Southern Plains. Some East Pacific moisture is being carried in the upper levels by the jet stream over the ridge and into the forecast area in the form of some cirrus. During this time frame, the upper level low over southern California will be cut off from any energy to give it a boost, so it will make only slow progress to the east, allowing upper level ridge to amplify over the region.
The flow aloft will become a little more active on Tuesday as an upper low slowly approaches the region.
100 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Chilly high pressure from central Canada will slide across the Great Lakes early this week. A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley mid week but it will remain south of the area. Otherwise high pressure in the area so expect mostly sunny skies through the day. Models show a warm front to our southwest and by 12z Tuesday should be from near Peoria to Louisville.
730 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring sunny skies and lighter winds today although temperatures will still be below normal. Another threat of frost or freezing temperatures exists tonight, but that will be followed by temperatures moderating to near normal for the mid to late week period. Elevated warm front becomes active tonight from ern iowa se to Kentucky.
/issued 444 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The blocking mid to upper level ridge axis is over the eastern portions of Texas extending north through the Central Plains with a 500 mb low over Southern California.
A large upper level low was located over the northern Baja this morning. A cold front is surging southeastward this morning but will stall out over northeastern Colorado or perhaps extreme northwestern Kansas tonight. By Tuesday the aforementioned upper level low will be situated over southern Arizona, with meridional mid level flow over the southern high plains into Colorado. Highs will be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s due to perhaps the increasing low and high level moisture.
A weak ridge of high pressure will provide dry and warmer weather through Tuesday.
1239 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the first half of the week.
454 AM MST Mon May 8 2017 An unusually strong low pressure storm system for early May will bring unsettled conditions for the Southwest United States for the first half of the week.
916 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure remains over the area producing rain-free conditions once again today. High pressure over the area will keep winds and seas below any headline criteria for the next several days.
Western North Dakota now in the cooler and dryer air to the west of the trough. Currently, an upper level trough was at the Alberta/Saskatchewan border with southwesterly flow aloft over the Dakotas. A surface cold front extended from eastern Saskatchewan through the western Dakotas.
Low pressure over the region will maintain a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and desert through Tuesday. Satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning just off the northern Baja California coast this morning. Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than last night. The upper low is forecast to slowly drift east inland over Baja today then along the Arizona/Mexico border by Tuesday.
Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure in place across eastern Wisconsin and Indiana. Trended highs a little cooler than the previous forecast given our cold start and expected increase in cloud cover this afternoon.
Temperatures on on track for highs in the lower and middle 80s.
Templer Previous discussion - Cold front has moved into central North Dakota with high pressure filling into eastern Montana behind it. Cooler weather today with clearing skies as the upper trof moves over the state. Closed low will be sliding across the southwest states over the next few days, and could push some showers as far north as southern Montana. Synoptic Setup: The long range begins with a ridge axis running up from northern california through western Montana then turning north into Alberta. Undercutting the ridge, a closed low sets over the Desert Southwest. To the west a large trough sets over the northeastern Pacific.
There should be quite a gradient in temperature across the forecast area this afternoon as a warm front builds into southern and western sections of the forecast area. Highs will be a little cooler in the middle and upper 60s across Southwest Virginia with milder temperatures in the 70s across much of remainder of the area.
1253 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A large upper level low will remain positioned over southern Canada and northern New England today. A stationary front will then position itself near the southern Mid- Atlantic this week with several waves of low pressure developing along it and moving near or south of the region. Dry northwest flow is in place this morning on the backside of an upper low sitting over southern Quebec. Otherwise, Tuesday should see a little moderation as the cold advection ends, though clouds from the aforementioned wave of low pressure may limit highs.
904 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. Mid level clouds should continue crossing the area early this morning as a weak upper trough rotates around an upper low across NY.
/issued 332 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ A subtle quasi-stationary boundary situated from central AR through central MS will lift north today as a warm front. By peak heating, this warm front is progged to be north and east of the CWA, keeping rain chances very low in the short-term. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s across much of the Mid-South with the coolest temperatures found in the Tennessee River Valley. The upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will be the predominant weather feature through midweek.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates persistent omega block pattern, with ridge axis from TX straight through the center of OK/KS/NE/SD/ND. Eastern upper low was centered over the eastern Great Lakes, with a western low centered in southern CA and trough from AB toward northern ID. An 850mb low was centered in northeast WY, inducing southerly flow ahead of it as the ridge axis slid toward MN/IA, the mid-MS River valley. Ahead of that front, given the prefrontal mixing and axis of warmer 850mb temperatures, should see temperatures easily into the upper 80s to around 90. Tuesday weather should remain quiet, but as surface warm front develops along the KS-NE/IA-MO border and 850mb warm front sets up somewhere near or just south of I-80, chances for showers/storms will increase on Tuesday evening and become more widespread through the night.
The upper ridge over the area will drift to the east over the western Gulf of Mexico into the lower Mississippi River valley on Tuesday, while the upper low over northern Baja California moves east into northwest Mexico and Arizona.
1201 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the first half of the week.
/issued 241 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ High pressure extends from Lake Superior to the central Gulf of Mexico this morning. High pressure moves only very slowly eastward over the next few days.
The broad mid-upper level trof will continue over the eastern third of the country today and tonight, with a deep layer dry airmass remaining in place over the area as observed from latest soundings and noted on current water vapor imagery. At the surface, a very weak front/trof boundary has dropped down toward the Gulf coast, especially to the east of our forecast area over north Florida. This feature has brought a slight reinforcement to the low level dry airmass.
956 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A large upper level low will remain positioned over southern Canada and northern New England today. A stationary front will then position itself near the southern Mid- Atlantic this week with several waves of low pressure developing along it and moving near or south of the region. Dry northwest flow is in place this morning on the backside of an upper low sitting over southern Quebec. However, given ongoing warning, plus uncertainty about clouds as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west, have held off on freeze watch for now. Otherwise, Tuesday should see a little moderation as the cold advection ends, though clouds from the aforementioned wave of low pressure may limit highs.
/issued 322 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ Main focus remains on increasing thunderstorm chances, including the risk of severe storms, with the approach and passage of an upper low through mid-week. The upper low in question is currently digging southward just off the coast of far southern California/northern Baja.
Deep layer ridging is in place over the northern Gulf coast.
This disturbance will briefly flatten the upper level ridge over the region. Fair and dry conditions will continue into tonight as the upper ridge rebuilds over the area.
735 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Chilly high pressure from central Canada will slide across the Great Lakes early this week. A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley mid week but it will remain south of the area. Otherwise high pressure in the area so expect mostly sunny skies through the day. Models show a warm front to our southwest and by 12z Tuesday should be from near Peoria to Louisville.
The North Country remains under the influence of an unseasonably cold, slow moving closed upper low. This is leading to some light snow showers for the higher elevation sites however will not produce any significant accumulation as the total precip will remain light across the area. The upper level low will continue to spin in place as we are blocked by a large North Atlantic low pressure system. Highs will be well below normal as we only warm into the low to mid 40s across the North Country. Tuesday will be much of the same as the upper level low is still in place and scattered showers continue. The cold air advection will be waning and so expect temps to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 40s to low 50s under mostly overcast skies.
Today Through Tuesday Night Warmer weather will be seen today, as southerly flow develops. Upper ridge building in over the Southern Plains will push a warm front away from the region into the Ohio Valley. Ridge will gradually shift eastward, with deeper moisture return beginning late Tuesday as southwest upper flow develops and another storm system approaches from the plains.
and Tuesday Temperatures at 3 am near freezing at many locations with several more hours to fall. A bit more wind over central Wisconsin were keeping a few locations just above freezing but anticipate even these areas will dip below freezing shortly. After the freezing temperatures, continued dry quiet weather today into tonight. Much of the forecast area will remain under the influence of the dry high pressure ridge, but warm air advection with a period of light showers works into the southwest third or so of the state and may glance parts of central and east central Wisconsin overnight, southwest of a line from ISW to OSH. Marginally unstable air remains southwest of the area tonight into Tuesday with the low pressure system.
Thunderstorms look to develop along the warm front near the KS/NE border for Tuesday afternoon/evening with the bulk of the activity remaining north of I-70.
925 AM PDT Mon May 8 2017 Partly cloudy and warmer today with a deep upper low over northern Baja.
735 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an amplified pattern with a ridge from the plains into Manitoba a trough from James Bay to the ne CONUS resulting in confluent nnw flow through the wrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge extended from wrn Hudson Bay and nw Ontario through wrn Lake superior into north cntrl WI. Today, with sfc ridging over the area providing another sunny day and a modifying airmass, temps will recover into the mid and upper 50s over the inland west half.
Area will remain between exiting trough to the north and cutoff low over the southwest U.
Otherwise, a few showers are possible over the high country today thanks to weak deformation zone between the northern and southern streams of the upper flow, where some moisture from the south will meander across the Wyoming/Montana border. So we will continue to carry some low PoP's over the higher terrain and nearby areas. High Pressure at the surface will slide into the high plains turning surface flow easterly to help keep us on the cool side of normal. We continue to a wide areal coverage of low PoP's over the CWA, though the best chance is still over the higher terrain and southern zones.
1159 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Chilly high pressure from central Canada will slide across the Great Lakes early this week. A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley mid week but it will remain south of the area. Otherwise high pressure in the area so expect mostly sunny skies through the day. Models show a warm front to our southwest and by 12z Tuesday should be from near Peoria to Louisville.
The Pulley Ridge buoy in the southeastern gulf reports seas of 2 feet. Nearly clear conditions are expected overnight as a ridge of high pressure to our northwest remains in control, suppressing rain chances. Highs today will be in the low 80s. Lows overnight will be slightly warmer than the past few nights across the island chain, likely near the 70 degree mark.
Low pressure crossing central and eastern South Dakota today will bring switching wind directions and unsettled weather, in the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Pressure rises of 3-4mb every 3 hours this morning across the western half of SD will gradually weaken as the low weakens and transitions to our far southeastern counties- southeastern SD by 21Z. High pressure will slowly build in from western ND Tuesday morning, and remain in place Tuesday (overhead Tuesday night).
Slow evolving pattern as upper level low over southern Quebec is reluctant to break down and exit. Full sunshine today expected to yield maxes in the upper 50s, but dew pts holding in the 20s setting the stage for another cold night tonight, mins around freezing, which should be conducive for frost formation with winds going calm.
/issued 329 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017/ High pressure will remain in full control of the weather once again across west-central and SW Florida. H5 heights continue to rise as mid-level ridge builds over the state.
A cutoff low remains over Southern California while the residual trough that it sheared from is over the northern intermountain states. A long wave ridge continues to nose into the area in between them. Tuesday highs will be warmer still inland. The ridge axis will break to the east of the area Tuesday night. Flow aloft will become southwest over the area as a long wave trough moves toward the coast. This will open the storm door again as the Pacific Northwest becomes vulnerable to short waves ejected by the trough. the models are trending later with the onset of the next system after the current ridging event.
946 AM MST Mon May 8 2017 An unusually strong low pressure storm system for early May will bring unsettled conditions for the Southwest United States for the first half of the week.
628 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017 The short range models appear weaker with the cold front today and were the basis for the temperature forecast and rain chances tonight. The forecast respects the higher rain chances across Colorado with likely POPs extending just a short distance into Neb.
Mid level cloudiness along and just behind the passing cold front (including KHVR KBZN KEKS) will linger through 16Z. Otherwise, weak high pressure will keep the area mostly sunny today, but a disturbance may bring passing mid and high cloudiness overnight. Weak high pressure will gradually build into the forecast area through this period, which should help clear out much of the cloudiness. Moisture wrapping around an upper level low pressure area over the Southwest U. This, along with the building high pressure aloft, will help warm high temperatures from the 50s and lower 60s today into the 60s to lower 70s for Tuesday.
Models differ on the amount of sun-clouds we will see here in Central PA today as we are on the southern edge of the moisture swirling around the low over eastern Canada.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s inland and with a synoptic northwesterly flow the sea breeze should be relatively weak and late today with the strongest winds right along the immediate coast and Intracoastal Waterway. High pressure will build across area waters through Tuesday.
949 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure will remain over South Florida today keeping the weather dry along with clear skies. The relative humidities over Broward County will also fall down into the lower 30s for 2 to 3 hours this afternoon. Little change in the forecast for the next several days, as high pressure at the surface and a building upper-level ridge remain in control.
The low pressure system currently over Baja California will continue to bring unsettle weather to Utah through midweek. High pressure aloft will develop across the region late in the week.
Over the So Cal region a fairly potent trough currently resides. Also, over the far NE CONUS a second trough is currently progressing northeast into the northern Atlantic. Between these two low pressure systems a large scale ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. This ridge has been the dominant atmospheric feature over the area for the last few days, which has kept the area dry and warm, with fair weather for the weekend. Despite the large scale subsidence associated with this ridge, isentropic ascent - associated with the warm/moist air advection - along the 305 and 310K ThetaE surfaces have formed an area of thunderstorms over central and southern Iowa.
Little change in the forecast for the next several days, as high pressure at the surface and a building upper-level ridge remain in control.
1007 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Update High pressure will bring sunny skies and lighter winds today although temperatures will still be below normal. Another threat of frost or freezing temperatures exists tonight, but that will be followed by temperatures moderating to near normal for the mid to late week period. Latest model consensus shows that min temperatures for tonight will end up at or below freezing at most inland locations. All temperatures will end up a couple of degrees warmer than this morning with warmer temps expected today. Lakeshore areas will stay a notch warmer being closer to the lake. Elevated warm front becomes active tonight from ern iowa se to Kentucky.
The cloud cover will keep afternoon temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than normal and tomorrow morning temperatures a few degrees warmer than normal. Highs today will be in the lower 80s over the northern two-thirds of the CWA with upper 70s expected over the southern third of the CWA. Lows tomorrow moring will generally be in the lower 60s. An upper low now spinning over the northern Baja will move over southern Arizona tonight and will keep the forecast area under a southwest flow aloft.
1107 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure over the MS River Valley will build southward across the Gulf Coast states through mid-week.
The upper ridge axis is nearly over the Red River, and while showers and thunderstorms have tried to develop down into our northwestern counties with strong 850mb warm air advection, the best cells have moved into Canada. The models have a trend with mid level lapse rates and MU CAPE decreasing as the trough axis moves into the Red River valley later today, so will keep thunder mention but more isolated than prevailing. As for temperatures, the eastern counties will be still in a slightly cooler air mass with southeasterly winds and highs close to yesterday in the 60s. The central and west will see clouds and precip moving in and should be a bit cooler than yesterday with 60s to low 70s.
859 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Chilly high pressure from central Canada will slide across the Great Lakes early this week. A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley mid week but it will remain south of the area. Otherwise high pressure in the area so expect mostly sunny skies through the day. Models show a warm front to our southwest and by 12z Tuesday should be from near Peoria to Louisville.
/issued 326 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ This morning W TX and SE NM are in between a departing upper ridge and an approaching strong cut off low.
/Issued 333 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ Warm and dry weather will continue through Tuesday while the upper low, currently off the Baja coast, makes slow eastward progress.
809 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure over the MS River Valley will build southward across the Gulf Coast states through mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week. Blocking pattern will hold today with upper lows over both the St. and upper ridging over the central CONUS. in the mid 70s to lower 80s Ridging extending along the northern Gulf Coast will direct a dry west flow into the forecast area this evening, but there will be increased moisture near the north part of the area overnight and Tuesday associated with a warm front.
Temperatures will be a bit below normal for the latter half of the week, but still in the lower to middle 60s for afternoon highs with lows at night in the 40s. Today will be similar to yesterday, just a few degrees warmer and less wind as low level ridge axis becomes better established.
/26/ Today through Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed mid to upper ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region which expanded through the forecast area. A few locations may even reach the 90 degree mark under light winds as dewpoints increase to the lower 60s across the west. Clear skies and light winds will continue for tonight with lows from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
Broad troughiness remains across the eastern CONUS anchored by a vertically stacked low over the New Brunswick/Nova Scotia area. Cyclonic flow will continue to ease across the western Great Lakes as high pressure slowly builds into the region through Sunday. High pressure/subsidence/dry air building into the region should largely end any remaining snow showers/flurries tonight. mainly the lower to middle 30s.
This area of precipitation will give way to the second more robust area of precipitation over far northwestern SD early this morning as the 500mb trough sinks in. Light snow or freezing drizzle will linger over eastern portions of the forecast area on Sunday morning before exiting. High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will build in behind the low on Sunday. This will set the stage for warmer temperatures for the new work week.
By late afternoon/early evening, the upper level closed low should make its way into south central South Dakota and eventually slide southeastward through Nebraska.