Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary near the Ohio River, with high pressure centered across the western Great Lakes. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow resides across the northeastern portion of the CONUS, with upper level ridging dominating along the Gulf Coast states. The weak frontal boundary will move south across the area today, as one final short wave trough moves through within the broad cyclonic flow just to our northeast. Upper level ridging will then take hold, with dry weather expected through the rest of the period. Highs unfortunately will also be a bit warmer, with readings ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Broad high pressure aloft remains across much of the Southern U. Airmass will be slightly warmer today with expected high temperature values 2-5 degrees warmer and readings back in the mid 90s across the plains.
With focusing boundary now south of the area, and 850 MB winds shifting to west, lee side troughing east of the Appalachians appears to be more favorable area for any convective development. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 74 97 73 / 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 93 70 / 30 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 94 69 / 20 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 90 65 / 30 10 10 10.
/ISSUED / Early this morning SE Texas was caught between an upper low moving inland over northeastern Mexico and a broad upper level high pressure ridge over the northern part of the state. 3 inches at 3 AM; however, a more moist airmass was moving northward from the southern Gulf around the east side of the upper low (the RAP analysis on the SPC website showed PW/s in the southern Gulf around 2 inches). Better chances will occur on Saturday as the upper level ridge retreats eastward and allows deeper layer moisture to move overhead.
720 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the WESTERN Great Lakes will slide across the area by Saturday evening.
942 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will dominate the weather today, providing mostly sunny and dry conditions. Afternoon highs will be several degrees cooler than yesterday, with mixing from about 875mb resulting in readings ranging from the lower 80s far north around Lacon. but will switch from generally northerly overnight to more easterly by afternoon as the high to the north re-positions eastward. Moderate dewpoints in the mid 60s should result from the high pushing down slightly cooler and drier air into the area.
1014 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather through the weekend. For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes.
Otherwise, a few showers were moving east across the higher terrain of the north and skies were mostly sunny over the southern half of the area. Main impact weather today will be winds as an upper level low situated over Washington state moves east across the northern Rockies. Cold front associated with the system looks like it has moved through the forecast area and cooler air behind it will keep daytime highs today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will over the northern Delmarva and southern New Jersey early this morning will gradually push south of the area today. High pressure will build into the region for this weekend.
944 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the WESTERN Great Lakes will slide across the area by Saturday evening.
High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 80s to the low 90s, with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. /ISSUED / Early this morning SE Texas was caught between an upper low moving inland over northeastern Mexico and a broad upper level high pressure ridge over the northern part of the state. 3 inches at 3 AM; however, a more moist airmass was moving northward from the southern Gulf around the east side of the upper low (the RAP analysis on the SPC website showed PW/s in the southern Gulf around 2 inches). Better chances will occur on Saturday as the upper level ridge retreats eastward and allows deeper layer moisture to move overhead.
1224 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes through Saturday and provide warm and dry weather.
/issued 413 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): An upper level low over Northeast Mexico is drifting north-northwest on the western periphery of an upper level high extending across Northern Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast States. Isolated showers are ongoing over the Lower Texas coastal waters early this morning however with land areas still somewhat stable showers are dissipating as they approach the coast line. As the upper low continues to drift NNW upper diffluence to increase which may result in some enhanced lift.
A dry cold front will move through northern and central Utah through tonight, resulting in noticeable cooling by tomorrow.
Upper low tracking through the PacNW at this time with associated troughing moving across Interior NorCal.
Ridge axis continues across central FL today with light mostly east and southeast winds that shift to onshore in an afternoon sea breeze. The highest coverage will be inland and south. High pressure ridging westward across the waters today, with a relaxed gradient, will result in easterly winds that shift to onshore in the afternoon at no more than 10 knots.
Showers and storms have rapidly dissipated this morning with the veering and weakening of the low-level jet, so opted to remove the mention of showers and storms. The first moved out of the high plains and into SW KS/NW OK and is being supported by the LLJ. It appears dry for most Saturday with the exception of northern OK again as a cold front approaches from the north.
1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 High pressure will be the main influence on the North Country's weather through the weekend.
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A low pressure system moving across the Pacific Northwest will continue to produce breezy to locally windy conditions over our area through this evening, while also bringing slight relief from the recent extreme heat.
1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A strong trough over the northern rockies will push much of the moisture over the area to the east. The trough's cold front should begin moving into northeast Utah around 5 pm today. The front appears to get caught up in the San Juan mountains thereafter and have little influence over the lower elevations of the four corners. For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then shifts subtly east later in the week.
Drier air aloft is coming in and creating a bit of an inversion aloft which is trapping moisture in the low-levels. On a side note, the building ridge that will move in later tonight and on Saturday will lead to some air stagnation across the region. Early this morning the cold front that helped spark yesterday's storms was still lingering over Kentucky just south of the Ohio River. Tonight high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Lows will be in the 65 to 70 degree range, except cooler in sheltered low-lying spots.
The Four State Region will remain under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft.
857 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will be South of the region this afternoon.
955 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will push through the area tonight. Low pressure will develop south of the area this weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Another cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week. The diffuse surface cold front appears to be located up over central VA this morning with extensive convective debris clouds located across much of NC. The high resolution models support a delayed onset of precipitation with sea breeze convection beginning 20-21Z then activity developing over central NC moving into the coastal plain early this evening. Lows generally in the low/mid 70s.
A hot afternoon is in store as the 593DM 500mb subtropical ridge drifts overhead. Subtropical ridge over top of the region will keep subsidence strong enough and lapse rates and instability in the region low enough to keep thunder out of the forecast. /issued 433 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ The subtropical mid/upper level ridge will continue to be the primary weather influence for the ArkLaMiss region as we go into the weekend. Recent area RAOBS show that strong subsidence and drying associated with the ridge has maintained a capped airmass, and this is expected to remain the case. Heat stress will also continue to be a concern in association with the ridge.
603 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper ridge moves east today and tonight in advance of the upper low moving through Montana along the U. Saturday high temperatures will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s following the passage of the cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon along and in advance of the cold front mainly across the southeastern portion of the forecast area.
The main concerns for the forecast are severe storm potential today and tonight as strong upper low pressure system approaches, followed by strong winds on Saturday behind the storm. On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery shows deep upper low pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest with upper level ridge axis centered over the Dakotas, progressing eastward. Some differences exist in timing with CAM solutions, but appears to be around 03Z when widespread convection increases across the west as low pressure system and associated cold front move into the state.
701 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA through the weekend.
but ridging aloft will keep convection mostly at bay. The stagnant pattern remains across the area again this morning with the mid to upper level ridge across the northern gulf coast and the sub-tropical ridge stretched from the Atlantic into Texas and Louisiana. This will keep the warm and moist flow off the gulf while the ridge aloft keeps shower activity reduced, however the ridge is not strong enough to end all activity.
The lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona. As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around 80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal. During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as short wave trough approaches the area from the central and northern Plains. High pressure will shift east allowing a return of southerly flow through the day.
1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. Will continue the high chance pops along and north of Columbia late afternoon into evening with lower chance pops in the CSRA. Leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with the greater chance in the south section. The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by the middle of the week. High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area. The cold front will push closer to the area by tonight.
Current thinking is that the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will remain northeast of the forecast area, with the MCS struggling to move into Alabama given the warm, dry air aloft associated with the upper-level ridge. This will result in the best chances of afternoon convection being in the northeast portion of the forecast area, with convection being suppressed further south and west due to the upper-level ridge.
933 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and will slowly move east of the region this weekend.
1153 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the WESTERN Great Lakes will slide across the area by Saturday evening.
These will hinge on the daytime temps reaching full potential of climbing into the low-mid 90s.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is aligned across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
718 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Low pressure will move east out of the Ohio Valley today, and then push off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight, allowing a trailing cold front to drop south into the region. The front slides south of the area by Saturday morning, allowing high pressure to slowly build in from the north this weekend. Today's convection and some synoptic help should allow a weak cold front to move from northern Virginia into the Carolinas tonight. High pressure across the Great Lakes will build south into our region on Saturday. Isolated showers are possible Saturday evening along the southern Blue Ridge.
708 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England. Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended from west Texas to Florida. Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front. Canadian high pressure settles overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s.
/ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ An upper level ridge remains centered over North and Central Texas today, but an upper level low currently moving north through Mexico will work against the influence of the ridge this weekend. As the upper level low moves northwest along the Rio Grande Valley this weekend, deep southerly flow in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will help transport moisture north into the region. As the influence of the upper level ridge is weakened by the upper level low, this is also expected to allow isolated to scattered storms to develop across parts of the region.
729 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 High pressure will be the main influence on the north country's weather through the weekend.
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 228 AM CDT Today through tonight: Early this morning winds have become light and variable, as high pressure was centered north of Illinois but providing enough of an influence with the lack of a gradient.
957 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm air to NY and PA through the weekend.
133 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure building down from Canada will bring cooler temperatures to New York and Pennsylvania today.
High pressure and upper level ridging will continue to build in tonight and be right over the lower Ohio Valley tomorrow.
Expansive high pressure remains in control across the region this morning. Early morning temperatures have fallen into the mid 40s, and by daybreak, should range from the low 40s east to mid to upper 40s west.
457 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Drier and slightly cooler air will to filter across Florida through tomorrow, as a frontal boundary continues to push south over the region.
300 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 144 PM CDT No real big weather concerns tonight as high pressure remains overhead. High pressure will begin to shift to the east tonight while low pressure takes shape over the Plains, allowing for a transition towards a south southeast wind direction.
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 A much cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region through Monday as Post Tropical Cyclone Matthew tracks further offshore the Carolina coast. Dry high pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas by mid-week. Skies have cleared in central NC as strong synoptic subsidence envelops the region in the wake of Matthew, now a post tropical cyclone moving eastward offshore the Carolina coast. Expect lows similar to albeit slightly cooler than tonight, in the lower to mid 40s, coolest in rural and low-lying areas.
619 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Low pressure forming near the Mid Atlantic coast will pull moisture north then track south and east of our region tonight.
310 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Light showers have been moving across the forecast area for most of the day thanks to energy spun off from an upper trough lifting over the Four Corners. This trough is evident on IR satellite this afternoon moving into western CO, and the brunt of the energy from this trough will pass across CO and KS overnight.
a mild and somewhat moist westerly flow aloft will develop over the region ahead of an upper level trough over the eastern Pacific late in the week.
After a nice, unusually warm day for this time of year, forecast concerns now turn to the approaching cold front just off our NW zones and the resultant snow expected for tomorrow. Even now, the cold front has dropped southeast through Havre. Precip models are showing excellent agreement in setting up accumulating rain near the cold front tonight, then transitioning into a very narrow swath of rain/snow mix just behind the front.
106 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will move offshore early this morning. Low pressure forming near the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull moisture north then track south and east of our region tonight.
147 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Upper flow over the northern CONUS is nearly zonal, with an upper trough off the Pac NW coast. Low-level trough is crossing the region with a warm front. Flow will become more southwesterly tonight, as trough comes onshore. Late in the afternoon, a strong cold front will begin crossing the area. Lows will range from the lower 30s across northwestern SD and parts of northeastern WY, to the lower 40s across south central SD.
An upper trough and weak frontal system will give the southern part of Western Washington some rain this evening.
306 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 We have had another quiet weather day across North and Central Texas today with an upper level ridge to our south dominating the weather across the region.
High pressure will be the dominant force across the region through the early portion of the week. Clear skies expected overnight under high pressure.
In terms of RH values for today with the high pulling away from the area we begin to lose the feed of drier air at the surface. Winds will be much lighter tonight into Monday, as upper level ridging over the southeast strengthens. Models do bring some high clouds into the area ahead of an upper level trough axis over the Mid-western states. Thus, expect warmer daytime temperatures (highs around 80 degrees.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 No changes planned to the forecast for this afternoon and evening with clear skies on tap under dry high pressure influence. 39 The short term will be dry as an upper ridge builds across the southeast. 41 Mid level ridge axis will extend up Eastern Seaboard. while at the sfc a ridge will extend down the Appalachians into Ga as high pressure centers over New England.
300 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 The high to our north and Post-Tropical Storm Matthew both continue to shift east away from the area and as a result the pressure gradient continues to weaken. While we likely won't meet the wind component for Red Flag criteria will leave it in effect through 6pm this evening due to the low RH and ongoing drought conditions. As was the case last night a few of the more sheltered valley locations could see temps drop into the upper 30s! An upper level ridge currently situated to our west over the ArkLaTex region will move overhead on Monday. Upper level heights increase slightly as the ridge builds and should result in a degree or two of warming in temps for Monday.
1106 AM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Split flow exists over the western CONUS with a southern stream trough lifting northeast across AZ and NM and a deeper northern stream trough over British Columbia. Southern stream trough will pass well south of the CWA today, with just some mid and high clouds. It will be warmer today with 700mb temperatures 7-8 deg C. A strong cold front surges south across the CWA Monday night with a wind shift to the north-northeast.
129 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front trailed from New England to Florida this morning.
/Issued 337 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ A short wave trough will track east across the Panhandles today and tonight. Upper trough to eject east of the Panhandles Monday allowing for drier conditions as zonal upper flow prevails early this week.
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Upper level trough over southwestern Colorado continues to progress around the periphery of the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Deep layer shear remains on the lower end (~20kt) so should any storms develop they may be more pulse in nature as opposed to organized.
/issued 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016/ High pressure on the surface and aloft dominating the weather pattern, resulting in dry conditions and cooler temperatures, over the Four State Region this morning and into the short term.
146 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Aviation/Hydrology A large Canadian high pressure system will cross Lower Michigan today bringing partly sunny skies with near normal afternoon temperatures. Sunshine and slight warmer temperatures are expected Monday.
556 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather through mid week.
Northeasterly winds will decrease throughout the afternoon and evening becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure centers overhead.
246 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure centered in Wisconsin is making slow progress southeast today, resulting in light east winds, mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures in the lower to upper 60s as of mid afternoon. With the high pressure moving to around Ohio by morning, winds will gradually swing around to the southeast overnight. Thus, I will go on towards the cool side of guidance, with the lows in the lower to mid 40s in most locations, with upper 40s southwest where winds may remain at or above 5 mph overnight. Monday, warm advection and south winds will increase through the day as low pressure develops in the plains. Highs Monday will climbed to levels warmer than the past few days despite the increasing clouds as the warm advection and winds increase through the day.
415 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Latest surface analysis showed 1030mb high over the Great Lakes region with the ridge axis to Texas.
This lower deck will dissipate by early evening. High pressure remains intact tonight and with mostly clear skies and decreasing winds, radiational cooling will drop overnight lows into the mid 40s to upper 50s.
401 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 High pressure to the north has produced northeast winds as temperatures climbed into the low to mid 80s today.
157 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Post-tropical storm Matthew passes well south and east of the region today as high pressure starts to build in from the west.
Clear skies and a decoupled wind field will allow many inland locales to fall into the lower to middle 50s just before sunrise. Once this southern Plains transitory upper ridge moves east over the southeastern U.
320 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will move offshore tonight.
1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Benign weather continues across the region as high pressure continues to slowly slide into the Ohio Valley this morning. another beautiful fall day is in store for the region as most locations warm into the lower 70s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies.
314 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the region through Monday night.
/issued 248 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered over the Texas Gulf Coast extends northward over the eastern half of Texas this morning. The upper ridge will flatten over the Gulf Coastal states through tomorrow. An upper trough now over northern Arizona will move eastward through tomorrow with associated showers and convective activity preceding the upper trough axis through New Mexico and into western Texas. The flow aloft over the forecast area will remain southwesterly as the upper level ridge and the upper trough over the Desert Southwest shifts eastward.