Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Isolated to scattered showers will continue to stream onshore today, with the highest rain chances (PoP 30 percent) occurring along the coast from northern Indian River county northward, and 20 percent as far inland as western Orange county and across the Treasure Coast. (Previous Discussion) Strong area of high pressure centered just off the mid-Atlantic coast will continue to track NE over the western Atlantic. Temperatures overnight will remain mild with lows in the low to mid 60s.
At 215 PM, gusty north winds prevailed across the region in the wake of this morning cold frontal passage. The air mass associated with the high looks fairly dry and this could combine with the winds to produce high to very high fire dangers Thursday.
Llws will be present at most sites throughout the duration of the period ahead of an approaching cold front. The low will cross Oklahoma tonight, and will drag a cold front into the region on Thursday.
The next cold front will enter the southeastern United States on Thursday. This approaching front will help push the high to the east but will still allow for easterly to southeasterly flow to remain across the area into Thursday.
237 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Cold front stretches from southern WI southwest through central KN. Highs Thursday will reach into the lower 70s across the west, upper 60s east.
Given these trends and the high likelihood of stronger gradient winds on Thursday, elected to issue a Wind Advisory for a large portion of central and eastern Arkansas from this afternoon through Thursday evening. Llws will be present at most sites throughout the duration of the period ahead of an approaching cold front. The low will cross Oklahoma tonight, and will drag a cold front into the region on Thursday.
1128 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 With high pressure off shore, moisture increases today and Thursday ahead of a strong low pressure system.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 69 36 49 28 / 0 80 90 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 70 36 46 27 / 0 60 100 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 68 35 47 26 / 0 80 100 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 66 37 46 25 / 10 50 100 20 0 TN.
The upper trough axis is still west of the Colorado border. Area radars show some snow over the high mountains, along the divide, and over the foothills. For this update will stay the course with the highlights in place and latest snowstorm about to commence. An upper level trough will move southeast from the nrn Rockies as another system over the swrn US moves eastward. Meanwhile, at the sfc, one cold front has already moved across nern CO early this morning. For tonight, the upper level trough will move southeast across the area. Light snowfall will occur Thursday morning as the trough exits our region.
/issued 702 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022/ Short wave trough off the FL east coast this morning slides off to the east as flat ridging tracks across the Gulf of Mexico toward the state. 0 inch range with the higher amounts to the south. High pressure dominates with easterly winds generally 15 knots or less for the next couple of days.
As the upper level trough tracks into the region later this evening and into Thursday morning, some showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible north of a line from San Angelo to Brady, with the best chances of severe thunderstorms being over the Big Country.
Leaned toward cooler model guidance, but kept temps a couple of degrees above Feb. By 21Z Thursday, temperatures could range from the lower single digits above zero in western MN, to the lower 30s, along and west of the Missouri River.
A storm system will continue to impact the high country through early Thursday morning, bringing blustery winds, mountain snow, and valley rain showers. The current position of the low is centered just east of southern California and over southwestern Arizona, according to visible satellite imagery. Lower valley rain and accumulating snow showers above 5500 feet are still anticipated along and east of I-17/HWY 89 throughout today, increasing in coverage for this afternoon and into the evening hours, all thanks to a secondary trough dropping southward.
325 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 Strong high pressure system south of the New England coast continues to move east over the western North Atlantic waters. This, in conjunction with the strong high pressure continuing east, will result in a slackening of winds across our coastal waters tonight and into tomorrow.
As a pacific cold front overtakes the dryline late this evening, low level convergence will increase over the Rolling Plains increasing the chance of lower based convection. Precipitation will likely cut off after sunrise as the upper low lifts away from the region. Much colder temperatures will follow the cold front on Thursday.
1055 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows mid to high level moisture moving up from the southwest ahead of the trough axis currently extending from the cutoff low along the Southern California-Arizona border northeast over the Uinta Basin and up to Riverton WY. Satellite and surface observations show the cold front is currently moving through the Salt Lake City area moving southeast at about 45 mph. Overall, expect generally 2 to 6 inches in the western Colorado mountains with locally higher amounts possible at the higher peaks.
1024 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Current surface map shows cold front dropping through the central plains. Northern stream trof is moving through the northern plains, bringing some light snow to the area.
220 PM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Upper trough is positioned over the western two thirds of the CONUS, with the main axis centered over the eastern MT through CO/UT border. Through the next few hours, the front will push southward as high pressure/drier air moves in from the north, with snow ending this afternoon and evening. Warmer air will begin advecting in Thursday morning and continue through the day.
Showers and storms will move into the area along a pre-frontal trough during the morning hours and as instability increases in the afternoon, the storm will strengthen and become severe. The severe weather and bulk of the precipitation will be exiting into southeast Mississippi and/or Alabama by Thursday evening as the cold front moves through the area. Overnight lows will be around or just under freezing with daytime highs in the 50s.
Expect surface winds to perhaps diminish a bit this evening before increasing again toward midnight as the low level jet strengthens. The associated cold front will sweep across the Mid- South during the afternoon. The low level jet really intensifies Thursday morning with 850 mb winds possibly approaching 80 kts at times. Extended the wind advisory until 9 pm to account for a few hours of gusty NW winds behind the cold front.
This will keep a chance of snow showers across the higher terrain NE of Safford. Afternoon temperatures were running 15 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon some area recording today high temperature early in the morning. For Tucson the high today of 60 degrees occurred at 133 am. Thursday will be warmer but still below normal.
Models bring the upper trough across and east of the CWA by 15Z Thursday morning. They still show the highest amounts over the mountains and foothills east of the divide, as well as the adjacent plains over Jefferson and Larimer Counties. Thursay's highs will be a tad warmer than current readings.
In addition to this the thermal trough catches up to the dewpoint trough very quickly to help push the system through region. Winds also become unidirectional in the lower levels by the time convection is expected to begin.
457 PM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows a wide expansive area of low to mid level cloud cover associated with the current longwave trough overhead. A cold front progressing from northwest to south across the CWA this afternoon has been (and continues to be) the primary focus for the highest precipitation rates. Even so, the low and mid elevations (and even most high elevations) will struggle to see accumulations thanks to high sun angles, a lack of persistent widespread snow cover, and recent surface temperatures keeping surfaces warm.
Breezy and gusty offshore winds will persist through Thursday morning across the higher terrain of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Wind advisory gusts continue across the higher terrain this evening. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 70 36 48 28 / 0 80 90 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 70 36 47 26 / 0 60 90 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 69 36 46 26 / 0 80 90 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 67 36 45 24 / 0 50 90 20 0 NC.
The approaching upper trof was in the process of bottoming out across southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico this afternoon and will eject northeastward tonight across the southern high Plains. In the meantime, surface cold front along the turnpike corridor will move southward across southeast Kansas. The short term models are in general agreement depicting a persistent area of frontogenesis developing along and just south of the highway 50 corridor in the 06z-12z time frame, collocated with some elevated instability. Further south and east toward the Oklahoma border and across southeast Kansas, a longer duration of mixed phase precip/freezing rain/sleet is expected until changeover to snow later Thursday morning.
Similar winds speeds will continue to spread over the southern half of Inyo, and central/southern Nye counties through early evening then should remain confined over the higher terrain overnight.
302 PM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows a wide expansive area of low to mid level cloud cover associated with the current longwave trough overhead. A cold front progressing from northwest to south across the CWA this afternoon has been (and continues to be) the primary focus for the highest precipitation rates. Even so, the low and mid elevations (and even most high elevations) will struggle to see accumulations thanks to high sun angles, a lack of persistent widespread snow cover, and recent surface temperatures keeping surfaces warm.
Models continue to show decent lift in the dendritic layer but a struggle to saturate the low levels. Cold high pressure will still be near and east of I-29 by late afternoon so a warming return flow is not expected, except just a touch west of the James River.
Based on this, expect snow to linger a bit longer across parts of northeast WY into the Black Hills area and southwest SD, and have extended the higher pops until about 02z. Upper trough is positioned over the western two thirds of the CONUS, with the main axis centered over the eastern MT through CO/UT border. Through the next few hours, the front will push southward as high pressure/drier air moves in from the north, with snow ending this afternoon and evening. Warmer air will begin advecting in Thursday morning and continue through the day.
Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornadic spinup or two will be the main severe weather threat with this activity as it moves into our area, with lesser storm intensity/longevity across parts of northeast Oklahoma where the storms will likely be undercut by a surging cold front. Temperatures will fall to near freezing before 6 am across the far northwest part of our forecast area, so have started winter weather headlines at 4 am. The advisory may need to be extended south another row of counties or so Thursday depending on just how things play out, but for now have included the counties with the highest probability of seeing winter weather impacts.
Strong surface southwesterlies this afternoon and evening will give way to a strong cold front that will pass south across our area overnight. As a pacific cold front overtakes the dryline late this evening, low level convergence will increase over the Rolling Plains increasing the chance of lower based convection. Precipitation will likely cut off after sunrise as the upper low lifts away from the region. Much colder temperatures will follow the cold front on Thursday.
A surface cold front is moving through the combined OK/TX Panhandles at this time. The higher snow amounts with this system are expected to be to the far northeast combined Panhandles.
Cold front stretches from southern WI southwest through central KN. Highs Thursday will reach into the lower 70s across the west, upper 60s east.
This feature, in combination with the low pressure system currently centered along the Arizona/Mexico border, will continue to provide enough lift and instability for additional rain and snow shower activity through tonight for locations mainly along and east of I-17/HWY 89. As the low towards the south moves eastward later tonight, shower activity will increase in central Navajo and Apache counties while continuing along the eastern rim and the White Mountains until around midnight.
106 PM PST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions with mainly light winds into the weekend. Sierra ridges may see periods of higher winds.
Blowing snow threat will decrease as temperatures rise above freezing Thursday afternoon.
Look for another dry spell to follow as high pressure moves in for the rest of this week.
E'ly flow continues with high pressure NE of the state which should temper significant fog concerns tonight before flow becomes more SE'ly for Thu night increasing the threat.
This trend will continue through the afternoon and into the evening as upper level ridging once again starts to build across the area. This will keep us mostly dry as we move into Thursday with high pressure becoming established once again.
High pressure centered in the western Atlantic will gradually slide to the east late tonight into tomorrow, causing the winds to relax and slowly diminish through the end of the work week. High pressure centered in the western Atlantic will gradually slide to the east late tonight through the end of the work week.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) At 18Z, the upper level trough was centered over southern Arizona. To the north, a cold front was stalled in the panhandles. This activity should spread east into the overnight hours as the upper trough arrives, along with a Pac front that the latest NAM puts at the Eddy/Lea County line at around 00Z.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING - As we progress through the remainder of the afternoon, colder air will continue filtering into the region behind the cold front. Another cold night on tap for Thursday night, but as the high moves off to the east, and winds will increase and shift from the south overnight.
This will be especially true in the higher elevations of southwest/central Idaho, where temperatures will lower between 10 degrees to -10 degrees F.
The approaching upper trof was in the process of bottoming out across southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico this afternoon and will eject northeastward tonight across the southern high Plains. In the meantime, surface cold front along the turnpike corridor will move southward across southeast Kansas. The short term models are in general agreement depicting a persistent area of frontogenesis developing along and just south of the highway 50 corridor in the 06z-12z time frame, collocated with some elevated instability. Further south and east toward the Oklahoma border and across southeast Kansas, a longer duration of mixed phase precip/freezing rain/sleet is expected until changeover to snow later Thursday morning. Another cold front associated with a northern stream upper trof is expected to backdoor eastern Kansas Friday night.
Very windy conditions will continue through the taf period as a cold front approaches and a deepening low pressure moves from the Mid Ms Valley to Ohio Valley. The cold front will arrive with a wind shift to WNW late in the taf period.
Rainfall is expected to transition to light snow on Friday morning in the wake of a cold front, coincident with gusty winds in the ridges due to isallobaric acceleration.
The system will drag a cold front into the state, with the rain to our west overspreading the region. It will turn markedly cooler behind the front this afternoon.
205 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 (Today Through Friday Night) High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will move eastward further into the Atlantic waters late this week while extending westward into the Florida Peninsula, as ow pressure over the Tennessee Valley will move northeast into the Northeastern United States. At the same time, a cold front associated with the low will move southward into Southeastern United States.
1046 PM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows a wide expansive area of low to mid level cloud cover associated with the current longwave trough overhead. A cold front progressing from northwest to south across the CWA this afternoon has been (and continues to be) the primary focus for the highest precipitation rates. Even so, the low and mid elevations (and even most high elevations) will struggle to see accumulations thanks to high sun angles, a lack of persistent widespread snow cover, and recent surface temperatures keeping surfaces warm. Broad northwesterly flow sets up Friday as a weak, dry trough moves over the region. Synoptically speaking, a closed low will form off the northern California coast Friday and drop southward along the coast and eventually turn eastward into old Mexico for the weekend.
The highest additional amounts will be in the terrain and on north and northeast foothills, where upslope flow will encourage ascent well into the evening.
A strong cold front will approach the northern Big Country around daybreak, then quickly race south, reaching the Interstate 10 corridor shortly before noon. Temperatures by mid to late afternoon will likely range from the lower 50s across the Interstate 10 corridor, to the 40s across central portions of the region, and the upper 30s across the Big Country. Expect low temperatures in the low to mid 20s for most locations.
A strong cold front is moving south through the area as well which will shift winds out of the north as we move through the morning hours with northerly winds becoming gusty around sunrise and persisting through the early afternoon. As a pacific cold front overtakes the dryline late this evening, low level convergence will increase over the Rolling Plains increasing the chance of lower based convection. Precipitation will likely cut off after sunrise as the upper low lifts away from the region. Much colder temperatures will follow the cold front on Thursday.
350 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 A southeasterly flow around high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue across the region today and then shift to a more southerly direction on Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Also, with the cold front approaching from the northwest we could see a few showers across the northern waters and Nature Coast Friday afternoon/early evening.
Patchy fog and freezing fog continues to develop early this morning across in the Snake Plain outside of areas of mid level clouds, creating areas of dense fog leading to poor driving conditions and reductions in visibility below one quarter mile. As a closed upper level low works its way down along the California Coast, minimal precipitation is expected for Friday with clear skies outside of areas of low stratus and fog.
An elongated trough to our west, which extends into Mississippi River Valley, will slowly advance into our region later today. By 6pm this evening the cold front should be passing through eastern Ohio. Flooding and high wind concerns should subside as the strong low pressure system exits east and dry, cold air advances. Snow chances will be limited to the ridges late Friday morning due to upsloping before subsiding as winds shift from the west/southwest and high pressure builds.
306 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Key Points: - Winter Storm Today with near Blizzard Conditions This Morning AT 0830Z an area of sleet and freezing rain was falling from south central Kansas through east central Kansas with precipitation changing over to snow and sleet from Topeka to Valley Falls. SHort range models show a warm nose over east central Kansas that will gradually cool through sunrise with perhaps areas of Anderson county remaining with freezing precipitation through 9 AM. The northern stream trough will phase with the southern stream system today as it moves across the central Plains. The wintry precipitation comes to an end by late afternoon as the upper trough moves through.
341 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Strong cold front extended from Lower MI to central MO and to the TX Pandhandle. With the cold air getting firmly entrenched in the dvn cwa the threat of freezing rain has ended. Tonight: Skies clear and winds diminishing greatly as high pressure settles into the area.
A southeasterly flow around high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue across the region today and then shift to a more southerly direction on Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Also, with the cold front approaching from the northwest we could see a few showers across the northern waters and Nature Coast Friday afternoon/early evening.
Strong winds are expected across SE NM and the NW Permian Basin this morning behind a cold front. Gusty northerly winds are expected at all terminals behind a cold front this morning.
15-25 degrees cooler than yesterday for most spots. That said, surface ridging will be building in through the day which should lead to decreasing winds by this afternoon when the lowest RH values are expected. With the cooler air in place, would want to see a much better overlap of the stronger winds and low RH for a Red Flag Warning, so coordinated with neighboring offices to hold off on any issuance at this time. An attendant north-south oriented warm front will slide through Friday morning with winds becoming more westerly and downsloping contributing to increasing temperatures. A cold front will move in by Friday evening, along which some CAMs suggest the potential for showers.
The day starts with an upper ridge nudging over the region, and a thermal trough along the southern coast, With this pattern northerly winds are at the ridge levels, with weak offshore flow at low levels over the southern half of the forecast area. Models continue to show a closed upper low swinging down the coast today into Friday morning, but with the very dry conditions above the very shallow moisture layer, no precipitation is expected, just possibly some increased mid level cloudiness.
However, all precipitation should leave the area by the late morning hours with cloud cover also dissipating as the upper trough begins to push east. With the initial cloud cover and cooler air mass in place over the area, highs will only reach the 30's across most of the area though areas that see sunshine during the morning may reach 40. Temperatures will initially drop to the low 20's and remain there through most of the night as the winds help keep the lower atmosphere mixed and limit further cooling. Tomorrow, expect warmer temperatures with temperatures closer to average in the low to mid 50's.
The main forecast concern is the potential of very strong winds developing along and behind a cold front Friday. Pressure rising are significant Friday as the area of low pressure moves along the Canadian border.
This will be accompanied by gusty west-northwest winds which will aid in mixing this warmer air to the surface.
15-25 degrees cooler than yesterday for most spots. That said, surface ridging will be building in through the day which should lead to decreasing winds by this afternoon when the lowest RH values are expected. With the cooler air in place, would want to see a much better overlap of the stronger winds and low RH for a Red Flag Warning, so coordinated with neighboring offices to hold off on any issuance at this time. An attendant north- south oriented warm front will slide through Friday morning with winds becoming more westerly and downsloping contributing to increasing temperatures. A cold front will move in by Friday evening, along which some CAMs suggest the potential for showers.