Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Snow, heavy at times, will increase across our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, with increasing chances for snow elsewhere across the lower elevations of Carbon and Albany Counties. We have also now added Central Laramie County, including Cheyenne, to the High Wind Warning, as it appears that subsidence will be enough to help bring the stronger mid level winds to the surface here. Strong winds expected to decrease in the early evening across our wind prone locations as the low and mid level gradients weaken somewhat.
A strong cold front will move from north to south across northern Arizona late today and tonight. Expect much warmer temperatures by the weekend. A weak ridge of high pressure will slide from north to south across Arizona today as a cold front moves southward out of Utah this afternoon and tonight. The highs on Thursday will be generally 3 to 8 degrees lower than today.
322 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Data analysis at 3 am has a ridge of high pressure starting to budge east of the area. Embedded within this flow was a trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan/eastern MT. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern Saskatchewan with a warm front extending into the eastern Dakotas/western MN. A cold front slides into the region Thursday with both the NAM/GFS showing increasing 925-850mb f-gen. Will have to watch for some light freezing sprinkle possibilities early on Thursday morning.
Strong jet pushing into the northern/central Rockies this morning inducing pressure falls over the high plains, which will result in significant increase in south wind later today.
504 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Zonal flow is expected today and have leaned more toward CONSRaw as it has performed best lately, which will generally keep cooler temperatures over our snow-covered areas, lowering temps from the previous forecast by a few degrees for highs today. I prefer to go closer to the warmer MET guidance also, as sky cover should aid toward temps staying in the 25-30 degree range. An amplifying trough digs over the Plains Thursday/Thursday night, and I have backed off of chances for precipitation as the best support will be split to the north and south as it looks now.
meanwhile, a coastal trough will begin to develop as a strong upper low moves across Baja CA. With the upper low digging so far south, the flow aloft will become southwest and this will allow a series of upper level disturbances to move across SE TX. The disturbances will interact with the coastal trough to produce periods of rain across the area later today and tonight. 75 inches) and the approaching coastal trough will allow for an increase in showers areawide with the higher rain chances over the E-SE half of the region.
A cold front passing through northern and eastern Montana on Thursday may bring gusty winds and periods of light rain and snow. A fast-moving weak cold front will move through the region, and colder air will slowly move into the region by late in the day. Gusty winds will also continue until the cold front passes through, and as a few isolated gusts to warning criteria levels can't be ruled out thru this AM, the High Wind Warning was allowed to remain in effect until 18z.
This combination presents p-type concerns across central MN, where the atmosphere aloft looks to warm enough to cause a wintry mix including light freezing rain from near St. Given forcing will be weak, the saturated layer shallow, and surface temperature barely below freezing while precip potential exists during the afternoon/evening hours, don't expect this to be impactful other than a few slick spots on lesser traveled roads. A warmer night with temperatures being held up by southwesterly flow and cloud cover.
442 AM MST Wed Jan 1 2020 A cold front moves across the region tonight with a slight chance of light precipitation between late this afternoon and mid day on Thursday. A cold front sweeps across the region tonight ahead of a deepening upper trough moving east of the Rockies.
Seasonably cool temperatures will be followed by dry conditions and warmer afternoons over the weekend. High temperatures at or a few degrees cooler than yesterday. A fast moving short wave trof will deepen over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico late tonight into Thursday bringing with a few showers to the area. A few hundredths of an inch here and there will less than 1" of snow at the highest mountain peaks.
Noteworthy features on water vapor channel imagery now include dry/subsident signature along the Kansas border associated with positively tilted trough, and closed midlevel low centered over Baja California. Increasing ascent from approaching trough will cause clouds to increase across the entire area, but deep moisture will remain east of us, and so should the rain showers. As the main upper trough amplifies and starts moving across the area late Thursday, meager moisture might be enough for some sprinkles with non-measurable amounts or light rain with up to a few hundredths.
448 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 A weak low pressure system will cross the area this afternoon and should bring some light precipitation mainly in the form of snow, but also a bit of a chance for freezing rain. A wedge of warm air aloft will be the culprit in causing the freezing rain potential as surface temps should remain below freezing. This system exits the region on Thursday as high pressure builds.
522 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Data analysis at 3 am has a ridge of high pressure starting to budge east of the area. Embedded within this flow was a trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan/eastern MT. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern Saskatchewan with a warm front extending into the eastern Dakotas/western MN. A cold front slides into the region Thursday with both the NAM/GFS showing increasing 925-850mb f-gen. Will have to watch for some light freezing sprinkle possibilities early on Thursday morning.
536 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Temperatures range from the mid 60s across portions of the Upper Keys to the lower 70s in the Lower Keys. The weak cold front that passed through the Keys is currently draped across the Straits, where weak surface convergence has led to a few isolated showers overnight. Dew points will hang onto the 60s through tonight, but a quick surge back into the lower 70s will occur Thursday as surface flow becomes southeast.
Once the system moves east this morning, dry weather is expected the next several days as the eastern Pacific ridge amplifies and moves onto the West Coast.
Snow shower activity will gradually lessen into Thursday afternoon, but accumulating snowfall will continue across the higher terrain. Snow is still expected to redevelop Thursday night with the arrival of a warm front.
A deep upper low over the Baja of Mexico will slowly move east the next several days bringing our next cold front on Thursday. An upper jet associated with this trough but will move east allowing only a brief period of time for stronger winds aloft to mix into the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, therefore a wind warning is not anticipated at this time.
Highs today once again near average in the mid to upper 50s as the high clouds filter much incoming insolation. Lows will be much warmer on Thursday with wind and increasing clouds.
Warm front has moved through the region this morning, with the bulk of the precipitation now from Boise and areas south and east. There is enough dynamics and instability for thunderstorms containing small hail to form this afternoon as cooler air aloft moves into the region, thus have added it to the forecast.
624 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
As the upper trough amplifies across the central Conus and phases with a lobe of energy farther south, Gulf moisture transport will greatly increase across the western and northern CWA throughout the day Thursday. Have slight to chance pops for showers across the western and northern majorities beginning with initial isentropic upglide and warm frontal progression Thursday morning, then ramp up to likely and categorical pops through the day mainly along and west of the I-85 corridor. Some showers could be quite efficient given the high PWAT regime of near or above 1.
549 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
Temps this morning will range from the teens into the low 20s, but as the sun rises on the new decade, winds will become more southwesterly ahead of another low skirting along the US/Canada border today. Additionally, a 40-50kt 850mb jet looks to develop over IL/southern WI this afternoon and will help usher in some warmer temps and breezy conditions this afternoon. These warmer conditions will likely help melt some of the snow this afternoon as well. Otherwise, the quiet start to the New Year will continue overnight with a some clouds rolling in and lows dipping into the low to mid 30s. For Thursday, warmer and drier conditions continue across southern WI with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Coastal trough will move to the east tonight and Thursday which would generally lower rain chances, however the upper level trough remaining overhead combined with moisture in place and the tail end of the upper jet will keep a chance of rain through the morning hours Thursday. Highs generally in the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s elsewhere.
703 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Surface ridging will build into the region later today and Thursday, then low pressure lifting out of the southern plains will track northeast into Pennsylvania late in the week. Lingering light upslope snow over the Allegheny Plateau will slowly diminish today from south to north, as surface ridging builds in and inversion heights fall. Mixing down model 900mb temps yields expected highs today ranging from around 30F over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s over the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure centered off of the southeast coast will bring fair and mild conditions tonight and Thursday. Expect increasing clouds Thursday as Gulf of Mexico moisture streams north along southerly low level jet at interface of anomalous upper trough over the plains and upper ridge off the east coast.
The lowest VSBYS should remain south of the I-20 Corridor through this TAF period but cannot rule out TEMPO IFR VSBYS from SHV eastward to near the MLU terminal with heavier showers mainly towards the predawn hours THU into the late morning ours. The cloud cover will fight weak warm air advection in place across the lower levels but feel like forecast max temps this afternoon are well within reach.
1120 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Zonal flow is expected today and have leaned more toward CONSRaw as it has performed best lately, which will generally keep cooler temperatures over our snow-covered areas, lowering temps from the previous forecast by a few degrees for highs today. I prefer to go closer to the warmer MET guidance also, as sky cover should aid toward temps staying in the 25-30 degree range. An amplifying trough digs over the Plains Thursday/Thursday night, and I have backed off of chances for precipitation as the best support will be split to the north and south as it looks now.
The gusty winds will continue into tonight, as low pressure moves east along the Minnesota/Ontario border. The winds along with a fair amount of mid and high level cloud cover will keep temperatures on the mild side, with lows only falling to around freezing by early Thursday. Will need to keep an eye on surface temperature trends later tomorrow, as readings may get close to freezing in a few spots before the drizzle comes to an end.
The cloud cover will fight weak warm air advection in place across the lower levels but feel like forecast max temps this afternoon are well within reach.
Mountain locations will remain a bit colder, but still rather warm for January, with freezing temperatures confined to elevations above 4000-5000 ft.
Still a decent day though with highs 3-5 degrees cooler than today.
141 PM MST Wed Jan 1 2020 A cold front moves across the region tonight with a slight chance of light precipitation between late this afternoon and mid day on Thursday. A cold front sweeps across the region tonight ahead of a deepening upper trough moving east of the Rockies.
311 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Water vapor imagery and CIMMS mean-layer analyses place a deep ridge complex over the western Caribbean. A southern stream cyclone nearing the Baja will come into play this weekend as it drives a strong cold front through the Keys.
Temperatures will remain above freezing tonight, falling only into the mid to upper 30s, then warm to near 50F on Thursday.
1030 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will be centered south of the forecast area today. The high will be off the Southeast Coast Thursday. Moisture will increase in an onshore flow on the backside of the high Thursday. A warm front will also develop in the region.
The slightly warmer conditions you are seeing outside will continue for the next few days. A cutoff upper low over the Baja will weaken tonight and be absorbed into a large scale trough over the central U. The higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains will see the strongest winds.
It's New Year's Day and we're enjoying some sun and temperatures have climbed into the low 50s for some, but the high clouds we've got out there are keeping others in the upper 40s at forecast time. This low will pull an inordinate amount of Gulf moisture northwards over the next 24-36 hours and produce heavy rains for Middle TN once again tomorrow and tomorrow night. Coupled with a strong low- level jet tomorrow afternoon as the warm front lifts through the mid-state, many areas could be looking at 2 to 4 inches of rain.
1047 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 A frontal boundary stalled over the Straits of Florida has allowed cooler, drier air to infiltrate the island chain. Temperatures are near or just above 70 with dew points in the lower 60s. Enjoy the cooler weather because breezes will be shifting to the east-southeast over the next 48 hours.
A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow is pushing through the Red River valley, with the snow line situated just east of the Valley, along and east of a line that extends from Crookston to Mahnomen. Upper low will move into southwest MN by 00Z Sat. Warm advection will occur south and east of upper low. Could be some freezing drizzle as model soundings indicate isothermal layer below about 2k ft. For now will leave freezing drizzle out. Sat - Tue Flow aloft remains progressive with long wave ridge remaining over the west coast and short waves moving through the flow. Upper level ridge over eastern MT will move east and flatten on Sat. VFR to MVFR ceilings prevail this afternoon with light freezing rain and light snow observed in the region.
224 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 The 19Z surface map showed a 987mb low across southern Manitoba through northwestern ND, with a trough extending south over areas near and east of the Missouri River.
Warm advection will continue today as ridge influence passes through the state and area becomes under the direct line of return southwesterly flow. Strong ridge amplification will occur over all of eastern North America during the end of the week.
1152 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
Temperatures will climb into the low 50s as WAA advection starts to crank up, though a few spots south of I-40 and on the Plateau may not find 50 due to the extra cloud cover already over Middle TN.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 39 53 48 62 / 0 30 100 100 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 33 51 46 62 / 0 10 90 100 90 Oak Ridge, TN 52 34 50 45 61 / 0 10 90 100 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 27 50 44 61 / 10 10 90 100 80 TN.
1218 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will be centered south of the forecast area today. The high will be off the Southeast Coast Thursday. Moisture will increase in an onshore flow on the backside of the high Thursday. A warm front will also develop in the region.
356 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure is still nosing in from the south in the Gulf of Mexico. This high pressure will shift east and lead to return flow overtime.
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Data analysis at 3 am has a ridge of high pressure starting to budge east of the area. Embedded within this flow was a trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan/eastern MT. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern Saskatchewan with a warm front extending into the eastern Dakotas/western MN. A cold front slides into the region Thursday with both the NAM/GFS showing increasing 925-850mb f-gen. Will have to watch for some light freezing sprinkle possibilities early on Thursday morning.
A strong cold front will move from north to south across northern Arizona late today and tonight. Expect much warmer temperatures by the weekend. Associated with this disturbance will be a cold front which will move into Arizona via the Utah border later this afternoon. The highs on Thursday will be generally 3 to 8 degrees lower than today.
254 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Zonal flow is the rule across the bulk of the CONUS with the main aberration being a modest upper low off the southern Baja coast. A modest wave in the far northern Plains in combination with the ejecting upper low ushers a cold front through the area late tonight into late Thursday afternoon. The modest CAA and increased cloud should keep Thursday's highs a bit cooler.
257 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Closed low over the baja of Mexico was slightly deepening this afternoon and will move east across Mexico then become absorbed in a PacNW wave that moves across the intermountain west which will be part of our next weather-maker starting tomorrow. Clear skies and south/southwest flow overnight will keep temps warmer than last night.
1117 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure ridge building in from the west will lead to relatively light north to northwest winds across the area today. N/NW winds up to 10-15 knots late this morning will decrease to 5-10 knots this afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from the west. With very dry air in the low-levels of the atmosphere, relative humidity values will likely drop to around 30-35% west of I-95 this afternoon with values remaining closer to 40% toward the coast. Persistent warmer than normal temperatures through the year, led 2019 to rank within the top 4 warmest on record for the primary climate sites in east central Florida.
306 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Mild temperatures and plentiful sunshine have kicked off 2020 in the lower Ohio Valley. Anticyclonic flow around the high has resulted in southerly breezes this afternoon, with occasional gusts getting close to 20mph. Strong, curved upper level jet will be positioned such that the lower Ohio Valley will be in the right entrance region, promoting lift/forcing for widespread rain tomorrow.
Temperatures will climb into the low 50s as WAA advection starts to crank up, though a few spots south of I-40 and on the Plateau may not find 50 due to the extra cloud cover already over Middle TN. A ridge of high pressure is sliding off to the east this afternoon, to be quickly replaced by the effects of a deep low brewing over the southern Plains and plenty of Gulf moisture soon to start advecting into Middle Tennessee.
343 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
Temperatures have increased in that area to mainly above freezing, limiting the potential for freezing rain. Farther east, there may still be very isolated freezing rain east of the Sisseton Hills. At the same time, the influence of surface/boundary layer moisture advection and low level waa westerly mixing winds working down to the ground even across the eastern portion of the CWA should have high temperatures warming to above freezing today, with some low 40s not out of the question across the higher terrain/ridge-top areas of the western CWA zones. Compared to today, most of the forecast area looks about 3 to 5 degrees cooler for high temps on Thursday.
Peak surface winds continue to decrease, so the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. A cold front passing through northern and eastern Montana on Thursday may bring gusty winds and periods of light rain and snow. A fast-moving weak cold front will move through the region, and colder air will slowly move into the region by late in the day. Gusty winds will also continue until the cold front passes through, and as a few isolated gusts to warning criteria levels can't be ruled out thru this AM, the High Wind Warning was allowed to remain in effect until 18z.
The coastal trough will move east tonight, but the upper level trough will keep rain chances in through Thursday morning. Temperatures tonight will continue to be fairly cool, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
A positively-tilted upper trough will approach the Four Corners region later tonight then approach the Panhandles Thursday. Cold front moves through the Panhandles this evening and tonight with strong cold air advection late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.
Highs today staying in the low 70's with plenty of sunshine as a high pressure over southern Alabama helping keeping us dry with light winds. As we head into our Thursday a deepening trough over the midwest will help to develop the next system that will be heading our way. As it starts to move east it will force high pressure out into the Atlantic.
312 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 By the end of the week the closed low over the southwest will have progressed eastwards to a deep trough over the central CONUS.
TYS will go down to MVFR during this time and will keep TRI VFR through the end of the period as the lower CIGs don't come in until after this TAF period. Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 53 48 62 42 / 30 100 100 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 51 46 62 42 / 10 100 100 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 34 50 45 61 41 / 10 100 100 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 50 44 61 42 / 10 90 100 80 70 TN.
A cold front will follow tomorrow as the upper low still spinning near the Baja opens and shifts eastward while being absorbed by the next piece of energy diving southeastward through the Rockies. It now appears the low-levels may be too dry for any moisture to be squeezed out early Thursday morning.
High pressure aloft will return late in the week. Happy New Year from WFO SLC! It has been a snowy first day of the year so far for northern portions of the forecast area in warm advection precip ahead of an approaching trough. Though the trough itself is not particularly well organized, the combination of a very moist airmass and good jet support will keep things going today and tonight. Parts of northern Utah will see a relative lull late this morning in the transition from warm to cold advection with the arrival of the main trough, but accumulations will be generally steady. As the trough digs south this afternoon and into this evening, precip will spread into southern Utah.
Anticipating a drop to MVFR cigs at all terminals over the next several hours as a coastal trough works its way into the area.
119 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 Aviation - Some sun possible this afternoon - Rain possible late week/weekend --Some sun possible this afternoon-- A ridge will be over Michigan today and the subsidence associated with it can be seen via the latest ir loop. Southest winds will push warmer air toward the Great Lakes and highs today will climb into the mid 30s with mid 40s expected Thursday.
1240 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure builds south of the region through Thursday.
LLWS may need to be added to the PVW and LBB TAFs later once the exact position of the low level jet is known as both of these terminals appear to be on far western edge of the jet.
1057 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020 High pressure will continue over the region through Thursday.
1006 AM MST Wed Jan 1 2020 A cold front moves across the region tonight with a slight chance of light precipitation between late this afternoon and mid day on Thursday. A cold front sweeps across the region tonight ahead of a deepening upper trough moving east of the Rockies.