Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) low now located across our area should gradually weaken while lifting north across the Florida Peninsula. As this occurs, the low-level response should be a gradual wind shift from easterly today to southeasterly on Tuesday. This is keeping the low level flow over the area out of the east.
Speeds will be a few kt higher than this morning so would expect overnight lows tomorrow morning to be a couple degrees warmer. The cold front is expected to sneak into Harper County near sunrise and this is where a few showers/storms may make it into our FA.
High pressure is situated to the north with a inverted trough/front extending from northeast Florida to off the southeast coast.
1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Temperatures at 2am were still in the lower to middle 70s aided by southerly winds around 10 mph. Not much to push the front to the south today therefore expecting a repeat of yesterday, perhaps 1-2deg warmer with highs in the lower 90s. We went a few degrees warmer than the NBM which has been too cool recently as well as very little cloud cover expected during the day. The main message for mid to late week is that the forecast is looking potentially warmer and slightly drier than originally thought. But it still looks cooler than these current 90 degree days. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening with the highest chances along and northwest of Interstate 44.
Cold front will come in from the northeast this afternoon/evening with strong northwest winds behind it lasting several hours. Surface winds: west-northwest 15-25 kt this morning, increasing to 25-40 kt this afternoon with local gusts to around 50 kt after following a cold front. Winds aloft near 10k feet MSL: northwest 30-40 kt, turning northeast behind the cold front.
228 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Another warm afternoon in progress across the forecast area, with another warm, but slightly cooler day expected tomorrow ahead of the much discussed cold front.
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A cold front extending from MI southwest to just south of the MO IA border will continue moving southward to near the I-70 corridor by 18Z, then shift slightly northward tonight. Highs today will not be as warm across northeast MO and west central IL behind the cold front. High temperatures will also be cooler across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to low level cold air advection behind the cold front along with cloud cover hindering daytime heating.
The higher clouds are associated with a broad upper level trough and a tight baroclinic zone stretching from the eastern Rockies into Iowa. A few areas may hit freezing tonight, particularly inland portions of the Arrowhead, but with cloud cover expected to persist for the most part tonight, a widespread hard freeze is not anticipated. Models continue to keep any rain contained to parts of northwest Wisconsin with high pressure building in to the west. Tuesday night is still on track to be the coldest of the week as high pressure settles in.
1154 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020 08z surface analysis had low over eastern ID with a cold front extending from it into western NE. Lead jet streak moves into the Midwest today as secondary jet streak carves out anomalously strong upper trough over the central CONUS tonight into Tuesday, eventually turning into upper low over the four corners area. Jets will couple tonight over the CWA allowing low pressure over eastern ID to deepen as it moves southeast into CO by Tuesday. Inverted trough feature over CWA will focus 800-600mb frontogenesis, syncing up with best upper level divergence. Heavy snow on natural surfaces expected for the higher Black Hills.
335 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just off to our northwest, across the Lower Great Lakes today.
227 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure east of the area allows for warmer weather this week.
147 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will remain along the New England coast through mid week.
The Canadian low pressure system that brought the strong winds and damage on Flathead Lake continues to move to the southeast this afternoon. As the skies clear and the winds diminish overnight, a cold airmass will settle in on the heals of the low pressure system. After a cool couple days, temperatures will rebound to more seasonal values as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The Canadian low pressure system that brought the strong damaging winds across western Montana will continue to move to the southeast this evening. Skies will clear and the winds will diminish overnight tonight, and as the cooler airmass settles in, temperatures will drop to below freezing at all locations.
1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 (Today and tonight) Breezy and hot today as low level thermal ridge continues to be pushed south ahead of advancing cold front across Kansas.
Given that some spots in our northwestern counties got into the upper 30s even with cloud cover last night, getting down into the low 30s or even upper 20s seems reasonable in our cold spots. Split flow aloft for tomorrow with the southern branch upper low well to our southwest and the northern branch over our area. Cold air aloft should help develop some decent stratocu again tomorrow, as temps heat into the low to mid 50s.
329 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 The upper level low pressure trough axis to our north will slowly push south through the night into Tuesday. The main energy in the trough over MT late this afternoon will dig into the central Rockies an close off into a large upper level low pressure area. Good mid level frontogenesis along with a short wave trough brought this rainfall. Tuesday night lows will be tricky as the models are showing the upper level trough axis right over our region with southwest winds to the south of it and north northwest winds to the north which will affect the clearing line. Still expect lower to mid 30s for lows with the lowest temperatures in north central sd.
Ridging influences surface and aloft are expected to continue to persist through the work week.
-- Seasonable temperatures and some rain for the rest of the week -- The airmass over us will modify somewhat as the upper trough moves east. Another decent trough arrives by the weekend and will give us another opportunity for rain.
335 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough complex across the Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida.
A mid-level disturbance is bringing in showers out west toward COT-LRD, but with drier air in the lower levels, not seeing a lot making it to the ground.
A few warmer upper 80s are also expected. Tuesday morning lows will be similar to this morning's lows, mostly in the low to mid 60s. The light S wind may keep temps a few degrees warmer in the typical warm spots, while valleys will decouple.
237 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Tonight and Tomorrow: A potent trough will continue to dive through the interior northwest tonight and is forecast to break off into a closed low over the Four Corners region tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain south of the progressive northern stream flow with broad sub-tropical ridging aloft over the southeast states. At the surface, high pressure will reside across the southern Appalachians and into the Gulf States. The coolest lows will be in the Golden Triangle where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 60s. Summer like conditions will continue tomorrow with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s beneath partly cloudy skies. /TW/ Deep troughing over the western half of the CONUS will result in sub- tropical ridging over the ArkLaMiss region for several days.
130 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just off to our northwest, across the Lower Great Lakes today.
This front will then move north and northwest as a warm front, pushing the focus for more precip further north. The outflow boundary/front from these overnight storms will become oriented from the southwest to northeast during the Tue morning hours and become the focus for additional thunderstorms on Tuesday, so the highest pops will be northwest of the IL river with lower pops toward the east. The frontal boundary will still be along the same area Tuesday night into Wed, keeping the focus for the highest pops northwest of the IL river. High pressure will then move into the area with dry and cooler conditions for Wed night through Thur night. Temps will remain on the cooler side after Wed, with afternoon highs ranging from around 70 to around 80.
242 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A cold front will push into the north tonight then stall across the region on Tuesday.
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 An advancing cold front will stall over the Southern Tier later tonight and Tuesday.
A stacked high/ridge will be located over the eastern CONUS into the southeast U.
308 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Cloud cover and rain will continue to slide south through this evening and overnight, as a large upper trough moves south and pieces of vorticity provide forcing for rain. Tuesday will be a fairly dreary day across the region with plenty of cloud cover thanks to the upper trough continuing to dig to the south.
/TW/ Surface ridging over the Appalachians will remain in place with continued hot and dry conditions over the area today. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Dry and mostly clear conditions are on tap for the holiday as surface ridging over the Appalachians remains in control.
242 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 An upper level ridge to our east and west have funneled an upper- level low over the peninsula.
High temperatures are still on track to be in the lower 90s inland and in the upper 80s at the beaches. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge will begin to break down somewhat as a trough over the western CONUS builds slightly eastward. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 60s north of I-65 and in the lower 70s south. Lastly, the LOW RISK of rip currents will persist at least through Tuesday.
Model consistency has increased early in the period regarding upper level low pressure stalling near the Four Corners region.
At the surface, a front extending from low pressure over eastern Colorado eastward through north- central Kansas into central Missouri is forecast to remain nearly stationary while another frontal boundary over South Dakota slides south. We generally have the highest axis along I-80 of near 1.
206 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Dry conditions will continue today with high pressure ridging into region. Plenty of sun today as the ridge of high pressure continues to dominate. Tonight, flow will become more easterly in the low levels which will bring additional moisture into the area from the Atlantic leading to a noticeable increase in dew points with low temperatures mainly in the mid 60s. Expect temps to be slightly warmer than today despite increase in low to mid level moisture. Overnight lows in the low 70s.
206 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will continue to bring quiet weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through tonight. A very strong cold front will extend from the New England to the southwest United States Tuesday before low pressure develops along the front over the Southern Plains and tracks into the Ohio Valley by the end of the week.
303 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020 20Z analysis showed an upper trough extending from a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes, westward to another upper low developing over Idaho. At the surface, an area of deepening low pressure was located over Colorado with cold high pressure dropping southward out of Alberta. For tonight into Tuesday, interaction between the lead jet streak to the northeast of the forecast area and a much stronger jet streak rounding the base of the upper trough will increase synoptic scale lift over the northern plains.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer in most places compared to 24 hours ago. A few warmer upper 80s are also expected. Tuesday morning lows will be similar to this morning's lows, mostly in the low to mid 60s. The light S wind may keep temps a few degrees warmer in the typical warm spots, while valleys will decouple.
High pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south will maintain light east winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight into Tuesday, with a weak onshore sea breeze component developing near the coast Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge now lies along the west coast, resulting in balmy temperatures and hazardous fire weather conditions there, courtesy of a trough just leaving Canada and digging down into our nrn Rockies. Closer to home, despite the ridge displacement west, afternoon highs are still set to top out a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's.
225 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Widespread smoke and near record heat to continue this Labor Day across the Central California Interior as high pressure aloft prevails. Trough of low pressure will impact the region Tuesday, lowering afternoon high temperatures several degrees and bringing continued dangerous fire weather conditions.
726 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the north through Tuesday, while a weak coastal trough gradually dissipates.
614 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Cloud cover and rain will continue to slide south through this evening and overnight, as a large upper trough moves south and pieces of vorticity provide forcing for rain. Tuesday will be a fairly dreary day across the region with plenty of cloud cover thanks to the upper trough continuing to dig to the south.
700 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Dry conditions will continue today with high pressure ridging into region. A surface analysis continues to depict high pressure wedging down east of the Appalachians, with a coastal trough positioned off the southeast U. However, with the 24-hour dew point trend notably higher, expect lows to be just a bit warmer than the past few nights. Still prefer to lean toward the cooler end of guidance, and as a result have lowered forecast lows a bit to reflect forecast lows in the lower to mid 60s for most areas. Expect temps to be slightly warmer than today despite increase in low to mid level moisture. Overnight lows in the low 70s.
The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories remain in effect through midnight MDT.
A surface analysis continues to depict high pressure wedging down east of the Appalachians, with a coastal trough positioned off the southeast U. However, with the 24-hour dew point trend notably higher, expect lows to be just a bit warmer than the past few nights. Still prefer to lean toward the cooler end of guidance, with forecast lows in the lower to mid 60s in most locations. Expect temps to be slightly warmer than today despite increase in low to mid level moisture. Overnight lows in the low 70s.
919 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A moist airmass and unsettled pattern with mid/upper level low across the area will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated storms into tonight.
250 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Winds will decrease overnight as the cold front exits the region. The cooler temperatures will persist through Tuesday with patchy frost possible in the sheltered northern valleys. Tonight and Tomorrow: The cold front that brought strong winds, blowing dust, and enhanced area wildfires, will continue to exit the region and the winds will slowly decrease behind it. The near calm winds and clear overnight skies will allow for decent radiational cooling to drop temperatures near freezing. Tuesday is expected to a much quieter day as High pressure returns to the region. Tomorrow night lows will be slightly warmer than tonight reaching into the 40s.
930 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Pleasant weather conditions will continue across the TN Valley overnight, as the region will remain along the western edge of a mid- level subtropical ridge centered over the western North Atlantic. Although moderate southeasterly flow aloft will exist in this regime, surface observations indicate that the boundary layer has already decoupled from the lower troposphere across much of the CWFA, with light-calm winds and clear skies expected to support radiational cooling overnight. A stacked high/ridge will be located over the eastern CONUS into the southeast U.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: A potent trough will continue to dive through the interior northwest tonight and is forecast to break off into a closed low over the Four Corners region tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain south of the progressive northern stream flow with broad sub-tropical ridging aloft over the southeast states. At the surface, high pressure will reside across the southern Appalachians and into the Gulf States. The coolest lows will be in the Golden Triangle where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 60s. Summer like conditions will continue tomorrow with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s beneath partly cloudy skies.
805 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Forecast area remains on the west/southwest edge of both surface and upper-level ridging through the period.
740 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Dry conditions will continue today with high pressure ridging into region. A surface analysis continues to depict high pressure wedging down east of the Appalachians, with a coastal trough positioned off the southeast U. However, with the 24-hour dew point trend notably higher, expect lows to be just a bit warmer than the past few nights. Still prefer to lean toward the cooler end of guidance, and as a result have lowered forecast lows a bit to reflect forecast lows in the lower to mid 60s for most areas. Expect temps to be slightly warmer than today despite increase in low to mid level moisture. Overnight lows in the low 70s.
Ongoing VFR conditions will continue with influence from the approaching cold front not expected into NE OK terminals until beyond this fcst period. /Issued 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ Another warm afternoon in progress across the forecast area, with another warm, but slightly cooler day expected tomorrow ahead of the much discussed cold front.
Temperatures are on track to range from the lower 60s northeast to near 70 southwest. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: A potent trough will continue to dive through the interior northwest tonight and is forecast to break off into a closed low over the Four Corners region tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain south of the progressive northern stream flow with broad sub-tropical ridging aloft over the southeast states. At the surface, high pressure will reside across the southern Appalachians and into the Gulf States. The coolest lows will be in the Golden Triangle where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 60s. Summer like conditions will continue tomorrow with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s beneath partly cloudy skies.
Very hot temperatures will continue through the early evening hours with an Excessive Heat Warning remaining in effect for the lower elevations.
41 Forecast area remains on the west/southwest edge of both surface and upper-level ridging through the period.
958 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the north through Tuesday, while a weak coastal trough gradually dissipates.
649 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A strong 1040 mb hybrid Pacific-Polar high pressure system has formed across British Columbia. The attendant cold front is advancing south through the Nrn High Plains this afternoon.
1034 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Currently - The Keys are near the axis of a broad lower level trough created by a now obliterated robust TUTT cell. However, a weak trough aloft remains. Through much of the evening the broad trough contributed to large fields of increased shower and thunderstorm coverage, but they has been located mostly over Cuba and the central Bahamas. The slow evolution is largely due to the very slow steering flows present within the broad troughing. Short Term Update - Despite a lack of significant convection near the Keys through the evening hours, the trough will remain in place and the dry conditions are not expected to continue. A broad trough across our area will maintain light east to southeast breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Competing factors, warmer afternoon temperatures than yesterday but also higher dewpoints for example, do not lend a lot of confidence on which way this will play out. While dewpoints are 4 degrees higher than this time yesterday, temperatures were almost 10 degrees warmer, which lowers confidence a fair amount regarding whether any fog forms at all. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 90 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 89 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 90 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 87 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 20 10.
20Z analysis showed an upper trough extending from a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes, westward to another upper low developing over Idaho. At the surface, an area of deepening low pressure was located over Colorado with cold high pressure dropping southward out of Alberta. For tonight into Tuesday, interaction between the lead jet streak to the northeast of the forecast area and a much stronger jet streak rounding the base of the upper trough will increase synoptic scale lift over the northern plains.
1021 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A dying cold front will stall out just north of Pennsylvania over the next two days, as an anomalous upper level ridge expands westward into the Mid Atlantic region.
To the north, dewpoints have really dropped off, with some dewpoint readings dipping into the lower 20s. Therefore, will err on the side of caution and continue to let going frost/freeze headlines continue, with the anticipation that pin pointing where freezing and just above freezing locations actually occur will be tricky at best. Latest forecast has that area dipping down to the lower to mid 30s for lows tonight, do decided that an advisory was warranted. Gradually clearing skies tonight and cold with freezing temperatures over most of the west and portions of central North Dakota. Low temperatures should fall to 32 or below for most areas except in the central James river Valley and the the southern Missouri River Valley, which may hover a few degrees above freezing tonight. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s.
Latest forecast has that area dipping down to the lower to mid 30s for lows tonight, do decided that an advisory was warranted. Gradually clearing skies tonight and cold with freezing temperatures over most of the west and portions of central North Dakota. Low temperatures should fall to 32 or below for most areas except in the central James river Valley and the the southern Missouri River Valley, which may hover a few degrees above freezing tonight. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s.
The upper level low pressure trough axis to our north will slowly push south through the night into Tuesday. The main energy in the trough over MT late this afternoon will dig into the central Rockies an close off into a large upper level low pressure area. Good mid level frontogenesis along with a short wave trough brought this rainfall. Tuesday night lows will be tricky as the models are showing the upper level trough axis right over our region with southwest winds to the south of it and north northwest winds to the north which will affect the clearing line. Still expect lower to mid 30s for lows with the lowest temperatures in north central sd.
522 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020 20Z analysis showed an upper trough extending from a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes, westward to another upper low developing over Idaho. At the surface, an area of deepening low pressure was located over Colorado with cold high pressure dropping southward out of Alberta. For tonight into Tuesday, interaction between the lead jet streak to the northeast of the forecast area and a much stronger jet streak rounding the base of the upper trough will increase synoptic scale lift over the northern plains.