Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will continue to control the weather through the period promoting clear skies. Today Through Monday Night With high pressure over the western and central gulf coast today, southwest winds will allow for a good warmup, with high temperatures reaching the 70s to lower 80s.
Recent IR imagery showing very little cloud near to upstream of eastern Kansas with one upper low over central Illinois and another over western Montana. The Montana wave pushes east-southeast today and ushers a cold front through the area. Northwest winds around 30 knots at 925 mb in the somewhat cooler post-frontal airmass under increasing high cloud from the west- southwest keeps lows in the 40s tonight. Low-level northwest flow rules the next few days with upper lows anchored to the northwest and northeast.
The center of low pressure over east central Illinois early this morning will progress northeast into Indiana and Ohio today, and eventually into the Great Lakes tonight. Light rain showers associated with moisture rotating around the low into southern Illinois and southwest Indiana will gradually come to an end from southwest to northeast today.
Overnight, yet another upper level disturbance will drop into the Northern Plains, shunting a weak cold front into the region that will stall just to our south and east on Monday. The lower levels will be rather dry ahead of the front so precipitation is not expected. Tomorrow's temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today in most areas thanks to the frontal passage, but still near or just below normal area-wide.
554 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 (Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures will be the main story for today as most areas will be back in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
233 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Overview: Speedy westerly flow aloft /the west express/ will prevail over the Central Plains in this period -- on the southern periphery of a broad, west-east elongated upper low situated over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains/Northern MS River Valley.
228 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Persistent upper level low pressure provides chances for showers through Monday.
233 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front continues to moves southeastward through central Georgia this afternoon. Precipitation chances should come to an end tonight as the cold front clears the forecast area to the southeast. The remainder of the area is behind the cold front, with clear skies and seasonal temperatures expected to continue through the end of the day. Broad upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface is currently building over much of the region, which is expected to remain in place over the region through the end of the short term period. Underneath the ridge and these clear skies, high temperatures will also range from 5-10 degrees above average across the forecast area, rising into mainly into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.
The upper trough that has been plaguing us for what seems like an eternity has finally progressed east allowing for dry zonal to slightly northwesterly flow to develop aloft. Tonight will be cooler with lows likely in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area as dewpoints hang around the same range. With the drier air in place and lack of clouds Monday, highs will likely climb into the low to mid 80s tomorrow. This is supported by MOS guidance and thus we nudged highs tomorrow a couple (2 degrees) warmer in some locations.
323 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Cold front is south of all of our land areas, probably close to the outer edge of our coastal waters.
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A slow moving cold front will be pushing through the CWA during the day today. As such, kept temps up some to compensate and could see afternoon highs a little warmer than currently forecast.
A shallow cold front is expected to stall just northwest of the forecast area in Oklahoma.
However, based on satellite some dry air has wrapped in north of the low's center, which is clearing some clouds along the lakefront and just inland. So some people are experiencing some peeks sun and warmer temps in the 50s. These conditions look to continue for a portion of the afternoon before the low shifts eastward, which will likely bring back the clouds and some light rain/drizzle toward the evening. Light rain and shower chances will continue overnight into Monday as one system exits and another upper-level trough pushes into the region. Coverage is expected to decrease into the morning as this convergence weakens, but the rotating vorticity advection associated with low pressure system will continue rain chances across the area into Monday as it slowly shifts east.
The difference in today vs yesterday is the upper level trough associated with this surface feature will pass relatively close to our area.
1250 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Low pressure will track east through the Lower Great Lakes and keep some form of scattered shower activity in the Ohio Valley through Monday. A weak ridge of high pressure will then lay out from the Plains towards Kentucky through mid week, bringing dry weather.
244 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Light rain and drizzle will continue through the rest of the day today and gradually begin to wind down late this evening as the upper level low pressure that has been spinning across north central Indiana moves into Ohio. A secondary low pressure remains parked across the far Upper Midwest which will hamper the ability for high pressure to build during the day tomorrow. Some high resolution model guidance is showing that the exiting low pressure system may interact weakly with the system up in Minnesota to bring down a stream of moisture and upper level forcing that manifests in areas of light rain across the northeastern counties. anchored by two upper level low pressure systems.
KSSF will see the lowest conditions, with LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS from 11-14Z.
Breezy southwest winds this afternoon will shift to north following the passage of a cold front overnight.
1027 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Updated today's forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning for a few of the wind prone areas and to increase POP and add isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries to east central Wyoming and the far northern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon. Dry cold front looks to lay along a line from Alliance to Scottsbluff to just north of Cheyenne. west to a low pressure system just west of Rawlins. Looks like the low passes just north of our CWA with limited QPF for mainly the western mountains.
For the remainder of the afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly to the east of a Panama City to Fitzgerald line, as a cold front moves eastward across the area. The cold front this morning remains west of the CWA and was draped across central AL and back into southern LA. For tonight, a few light showers cannot be ruled out across the eastern portion of the CWA for the first half of the night, however overall chances are on the low side. The cold front will exit the eastern portion of the CWA tonight.
1201 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Key Points: -Pleasant weather expected today with abundant sunshine and light winds as weak high pressure builds into the region.
The cold front that moved through the area today will continue to slide south with northerly winds continuing through tonight.
247 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 (Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Messy upper-level pattern continues this evening as the low slowly pushes further east in the eastern Great Lakes. However, periods of isolated to scattered light showers with some convergence on the backside of this exiting system and ahead of another trough working its way across the Upper Midwest will be possible across southern WI tonight through Monday. Clearing along the lake looks to continue through the remainder of the afternoon, but the lower clouds are expected to spread eastward through the evening as the low pushes east.
Broad swath of light rain remains along and behind the front, with a little light snow noted over portions of the southwest where cooler air has pulled in. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, precipitation will continue along and behind the front, but will start to wrap back some towards the southwest overnight as aforementioned elongated upper low rotates around and orientates from eastern Montana through the Dakotas into southern Minnesota as a strong lobe swings around the southern end. Precipitation will do a changeover to snow as cooler air pulls into the system, but precipitation is expected to be mainly light. On Monday, periods of light snow continue as upper low very slowly meanders towards the east.
A cold front is poised to pass through the region this evening. While no rain is expected, it will usher in a cooler air mass with high temperatures on Monday returning closer to seasonable readings in the 60s. Otherwise cool northerly low level flow will interact with periodic disturbances that will descend down the amplified western ridge and weaken as they cross the Plains leading to a few bouts of light rain.
913 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Updated today's forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning for a few of the wind prone areas and to increase POP and add isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries to east central Wyoming and the far northern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon. Dry cold front looks to lay along a line from Alliance to Scottsbluff to just north of Cheyenne. west to a low pressure system just west of Rawlins. Looks like the low passes just north of our CWA with limited QPF for mainly the western mountains.
Lows tonight in the low to mid 40s. Stacked upper low invof KRCR will continue ewd into nwrn OH by sundown. Blocky Conus flow continues this period with persistent troughing holding on across the Great Lakes through Thu. Still some additional shower chances in this flow pattern pending resultant location of upper trough axis later this week and timing of flow perturbations although not inclined just yet to stray from present dry fcst.
An upper ridge will build over British Columbia through the week ahead as an upper low develops over the Great Basin. A weak upper trough might touch off some showers over the Cascades Monday afternoon.
This high will shift east on Monday, swinging our winds to the southeast.
235 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front passing through the area today is bringing cooler and drier air in behind it which will remain in place over the next couple of days.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front will move northwest to southeast across Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
917 AM PDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Marginally cooler today under expansive shield of high clouds.
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A pretty inactive period expected for the forseeable future, as surface ridging becomes the predominant surface pattern. This sweet spot between the two ridges has allowed for the area to warm well into the 70s most everywhere, with perhaps a smattering of 80 degree temperatures south of I-70 toward EC Kansas or WC MO. By this evening a cold front will move through the area, bringing steady cold air advection for several hours post passage. Expecting near steady daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the week, as that surface ridging pattern remains in place. The next chance for rain comes late this week, as a weak trough pushes from NW to SE through the area.
high pressure aloft will remain in control with dry conditions expected today and into the work week. A thermal trough at the surface will bring some gusty winds to the ridges along with some enhanced afternoon valley breezes today and Monday.
203 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A weak cold front will continue to move east this afternoon, sparking a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. High pressure builds in this evening and will bring showers to an end early.
The closed upper low rotating atop northern OH continues to advect mid/upr level moisture across the OH valley this morning, eventually into portions of the TN valley this afternoon, all while the low levels remain somewhat dry post fropa. Sufficient moisture remains in the low levels for a few low cu, otherwise mid/high cirrus expected. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 81 53 74 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 77 51 71 46 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 77 50 71 45 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 72 48 68 42 / 0 0 10 10 0.
At the surface, a low is centered under the upper low across the Great Lakes with a high centered across Lousiana. Upper level height rises will occur on Monday as the ridge to the west pushes further east. Additionally, on Monday another upper level closed low will move into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes. A frontal boundary will move southeastward across the central and southern Plains in advance of this upper level closed low.
Wind speeds remain below critical levels and will gradually decrease though the rest of the afternoon with weakening pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold front. Shallow front likely will hang up in the terrain to some degree Monday with another warm afternoon to the south, and temps notably cooler across northeast OK and far northwest AR.
Forecast Summary: Anomalously cool atmosphere will settle into the region behind a cold front sweeping east this afternoon, and remain in place through the week.
Latest surface analysis places the occluded low pressure center over northern IL/IN state boundary and the triple point over the thumb of MI with the cold front stretched N-S over eastern KY. Monday will be a warm and somewhat breezy day as a weak and moisture-starved cold front pushes through the Ohio Valley. However, heights aloft never really drop over the lower Ohio Valley, so our temps will actually run just slightly below normal for mid-April.
1121 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Have downgraded the high wind warning to an advisory through the afternoon for the Rapid City area and Pennington/southern Meade county plains as winds have now decreased below warning levels. There will be lulls in the stronger winds as main surge shifts east of the area early this morning, but a secondary cold front will likely produce some stronger winds again during the midday and afternoon hours. Current surface analysis shows strong cold front moving east into central SD. Will downgrade the high wind warning to an advisory when this happens.
128 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Periodic shower chances will continue through mid week with crossing upper level lows. Isolated light showers expected this afternoon as convective temps are met and as an upper low tracks east toward the Upper Ohio Valley region and colder air moves in aloft. Closed low currently in the vicinity of the IN/OH border will slowly transition east across te Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region tonight and Monday.
226 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Mean upper level troughing will dominate the period, supporting below normal temps with unsettled and breezy conds. Splitting upper trough supporting a round of PVA this afternoon, with steep lapse rates allowing convective rain/snow showers. Closed low over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, will support another arm of PVA into the area Monday, with another round of sct snow showers in the afternoon. Cool, breezy, and increasingly unsettled weather can be expected the remainder of the week, with a late week storm possibly affecting a portion of the FA as the western NOAM upper trough moves east. Too much uncertainty remains in storm evolution (given a closed upper trough) to be able to confidently forecast any snow amounts at this time.
214 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Isolated showers expected over the eastern Midlands and CSRA as a weak cold front moves across the region.
224 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Persistent upper level low pressure provides chances for showers through Monday.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Most obvious feature on regional analysis early this afternoon is deep upper level low pressure working its way slowly east across the southern Great Lakes. Remnant (albeit decaying) theta-e ridge on its northern periphery still brining fairly mostly light showers to portions of eastern upper Michigan. Southern Lakes low pressure will continue its painstakingly slow march east, only reaching vicinity central Lake Erie by sunrise Monday. all-the-while next upper level low pressure pivots into the northern Plains. Some indication somewhat deeper moisture will try to pinwheel back west on northern flank of lower Lakes upper low, returning the chance for more showers, especially across northeast lower Michigan.
1005 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cooler airmass in the wake of a dry cold front will reside across the Great Basin today. High pressure will temporarily develop across the area Monday, before upper level low brings unsettled weather for the midweek period.
The accompanying upper trough continues to move southeast and is now over the Dakotas, which will also work to push the sfc front southeast for the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Cooler conditions will be in place for the rest of the week starting tomorrow with somewhat breezy northerly winds and weak CAA still in play.
A cold front will be moving across West Central Texas tomorrow. Strong lift from the cold front and the left front exit region of an upper level jet should trigger strong to isolated severe thunderstorms between 1 PM and 4 PM.
400 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Tonight and Monday: Tonight looks to be quite pleasant, though with high pressure remaining in control and skies clear to partly cloudy with humidity still seasonably low, we likely have lows a bit below normal overnight. Monday morning begins in the lower 50s F for most but we warm up quickly during the day as light southerly winds and mid April sun combine to rebound our afternoon highs into the lower 80s F. Significant diurnal mixing prevents our dewpoints from moving up much and will likely only be in the lower 50s F through the day. Flow aloft remains mostly zonal through the day with a bit of a northerly component, downstream of a a ridge axis centered roughly about the Arklatex.
244 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A vertically stacked upper-level closed low and occluded surface cyclone are expected to continue filling and weakening overnight as they progress slowly northeastward away from the forecast area. On Monday, another upper-level closed low is forecast to move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, forcing a very weak cold front through the forecast area Monday morning. Despite weak CAA behind the cold front, solar insolation through scattered upper- level clouds should enable temps to still warm to around or slightly below average. Pfahler Global model guidance is in much better agreement with the movement and evolution of the upper-level closed low across the northern tier of the U. during the middle of the week and have the closed low slowly traversing the Great Lakes en route to the Northeast by late week.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to taper off this afternoon/evening from northwest to southeast across the area as a cold front approaches. The cold front will move south of the area late tonight with dry conditions expected behind the front as high pressure builds in from the west.
251 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Low clouds and light precipitation persist this afternoon as latest in series of closed upper lows gradually shifts off to the east.
High pressure leads to dry weather with modest westerly wind gusts. Upper level low pressure continues to rotate and slide east across the lower Great Lakes region this afternoon, favoring deep wly flow across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachian region. Otherwise, temperatures continue to warm nicely amidst abundant insolation with highs topping out in the low/mid 70s southward, mid/upr 60s northward. On Monday, the Great Lakes cyclone will eject northeast favoring nwly confluent flow amidst building heights across the southeast CONUS. Nevertheless, the fcst will remain dry with temperatures 4-6 degrees warmer than today, generally upper 70s to near 80 southward, low/mid 70s northward.
In the upper levels, ridging will nose into the area tonight into Monday.
After today, the warmer temps will take a backseat for much of the region as a cold front rolls south through the Panhandle, bisecting the northern half of the area by tomorrow morning.
An upper low spinning through the Southern Great Lakes this evening will be replace by another as we head into the work week.
MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large trough runs south from the Northwest Territories down through Alberta into eastern Montana and terminating over northern Wyoming. To the west a large ridge jogs north up the coast of North America from California to British Columbia.
419 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Periodic shower chances will continue through mid week with crossing upper level lows. Best precipitation coverage should occur during the afternoon hours as cold low pressure overhead, combined with peak daytime heating, supports the greatest potential for deeper convection given available instability.
There is more dry air in the mid levels, which indicates that some downsloping off the higher terrain over Cuba is indeed pushing across our area.
354 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A cold front will cross the area late tonight.
The low levels will see a change to moist, southerly flow tonight, resulting in a large increase in BL humidity, and resulting cloudcover. A cold front will approach the CWA late Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. General ascent ahead of a weak approaching trough and strong surface heating should be favorable for convection late Monday afternoon.
The cold front traverses the area this evening. Patchy fog develops overnight with lows in the lower to middle 50s.
239 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Cold front has pushed into our western forecast area, and will continue eastward through the early evening, on leading edge of a mid-upper level wave currently spinning through the western Dakotas. Clouds decrease behind the showers later tonight, but the breezy winds will hold temperatures in the lower-mid 30s.
A weak short wave ridge will move across south Texas tonight. The low level southeasterly flow will increase to around 20 knots tonight and bring in higher moisture/clouds to the region. A weak short wave trough will be moving out of the Big Bend into the Edwards Plateau by Monday afternoon.
Highs on Monday will range from the middle and upper 80s near the coast to the lower and middle 90s across the remainder of deep South Texas.
A cold front is expected to come through this evening with east northeast winds to follow. /Issued 329 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021/ 08z WV satellite reveals an upper low over CMI, a northern stream wave over MT, and quasi-zonal west-northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. At the surface, a cold front associated with the MT wave is beginning to push south through SE WY and the NE Panhandle. Sunday evening into the overnight hours, the aforementioned cold front will push south through the forecast area. Given progged surface pressure rises, 35-45 knot winds seen at 850mb, and the fact that our most recent cold front seemed to vastly overachieve despite weaker pressure rises and 850mb winds, have gone toward the high end of guidance sustained winds and gusts between 10pm and 4am.
252 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021 A low pressure system is hovering over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. There is a cold front associated with a short wave on the back side of this system that is moving through Kansas. Highlight: Cooler The cooler air will arrive to start to the work/school week with daytime highs falling roughly 10 to 15 degrees from today. High temperatures on Monday are still forecast to be in the low to mid 60s which is right about seasonal normal.
Today Through Monday Night With high pressure over the western and central gulf coast today, southwest winds will allow for a good warmup, with high temperatures reaching the 70s to lower 80s.
A cold front will be moving across West Central Texas tomorrow. Strong lift from the cold front and the left front exit region of an upper level jet should trigger strong to isolated severe thunderstorms between 1 PM and 4 PM. (Monday night through next Sunday) A cold front will be near the Interstate 10 corridor early Monday evening.