Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
913 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 Steady northeast winds will highlight the overnight conditions, as clear skies prevail under persistent high pressure. Another chilly night is in store, as lows range from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s in the SE near Lawrenceville. Clouds associated with low pressure in the eastern third of the lower 48 will begin to surge westward toward Illinois tomorrow. High pressure continues to build into the Midwest tonight with the ridge axis to the west and the high centered over the Hudson Bay. With sfc winds out of the northeast, and breezy at times, through the period, cooler temps will prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND VFR CONTINUING. STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED AND SHIFTING EAST. DENVER CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE STRATUS WILL COMPLETELY WRAP THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE DENVER AREA. STILL COULD BE SOME WEAK CIN TO OVERCOME BUT WITH MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH INCOMING TROF FEEL THIS STABILITY WILL BE OVERCOME. WILL ALSO INCREASE POPS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
1034 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE PAC NW.
829 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN UTAH. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. ALLOWING FOR MAXES TOMORROW TO BE 20F COOLER THAN TODAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND IN EXCESS OF 10F COOLER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS AND SPINS OVER ALABAMA.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THOUGH ARE STILL ONGOING DUE TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT ALOFT AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.
UPPER LOW CENTER HAS MOVED DOWN INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED STREAMING IN FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER POPS EAST HALF. SEPTEMBER IN NASHVILLE WAS WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT BELOW IN THE TEMPERATURE AVERAGED 74.
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR WEST AS ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN GRAND FORKS AND NELSON COUNTIES AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN MORE SPOTTY. UPPER ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS AREA BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WEST AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
917 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 Drier and cooler air continues to settle over the region this evening on light north to northeast winds.
806 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 03/00Z UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
624 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND EVEN THE KHTX RADAR, SHOWS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. NOT SURPRISINGLY, SHOWERS--AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS--HAVE BROKEN OUT, MAINLY EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW IS GOING TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW, BOTTOM OUT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SIT THERE FOR A WHILE. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY--BUT ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP GOOD RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, MAINLY FROM HUNTSVILLE EAST.
738 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON FRIDAY. MOST OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
1130 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 VORT LOBE IN THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH INTO CANADA AND WEAKENING. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR WEST AS ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN GRAND FORKS AND NELSON COUNTIES AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN MORE SPOTTY. UPPER ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS AREA BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WEST AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. /ISSUED 430 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NWRN GULF. WITH A DEVELOPING TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN AR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGING ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NRN TX. AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE IS HELPING FIRE OFF A BIT OF CONVECTION TO OUR E/NE WHICH WILL DROP SWWD INTO THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS SWD INTO THE AREA AND GETS A BOOST FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING FARTHER WWD AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING IT DROPPING INTO THE AREA.
RIDGE CITY THAT IS. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
746 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER WILL AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT-TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WED AS RELATIVELY COOLER AIR CIRCULATES AROUND HIGH. UPPER PATTERN DOMINATED BY BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
615 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MAIN THEME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24HR AS AN UPPER RIDGE FURTHER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL PLACE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S WEST.
Big picture satellite imagery shows a ridge axis well established across Rocky Mountain with a nice plume of moisture stretching from the Gulf of California through the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains. Back to the north, a notable trough moving across eastern Canada is helping kick the flow across northern Plains to the northwest. Mid- range operational and ensemble models both point at the ridge to our west holding in place through much of the next 7 days. Far side of the weekend a trough moving along the Canadian border might be able to force some activity back down into Kansas or Missouri as the moisture plume from the Eastern Pacific gets bent back over across the Plains States.
/ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON COOLER THAN EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE EAST.
DRY AIR EXTENDED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. ANTICYCLONIC TENDENCIES PREVAIL ON THE LARGE SCALE WITH A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS RIDGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW-ELEVATION BASE REFLECTIVITY SCANS DO IDENTIFY SOME LURKING SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AND AIR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MAIN THEME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24HR AS AN UPPER RIDGE FURTHER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL PLACE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S WEST.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EARLY EVENING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. AS UPPER TROF AND PRECEDING LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVERSPREAD THE STATE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY QUICK PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STATE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TIMES THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AND BY AFTERNOON THEY DEVELOP A NOT INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE EBBING AND FLOWING OF THE POSITION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE A BIT TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. CAUSING A DEEPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN STATES DOWNSTREAM FROM IT. IT WILL ALSO (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) FORCE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS DOWN TO THE COAST. THE MODELS SHOW HINT THAT THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH MAY ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEFT OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AVIATION IMPACTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT KMGM AND KTOI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT IS TO START OFF SCATTERED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE NW PANHANDLES FOR A GREATER AMOUNT OF TIME. TUESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND SEND THE BETTER UPPER FORCING INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS. SHOULD THE RIDGE SLOW IT'S NW PROGRESSION THEN WE MIGHT NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH INTO TUESDAY DAYTIME.
A weak cold front will sag south into the Big Country late tonight. Weak cold front evident on radar imagery and extending from Lubbock to between Vernon and Wichita Falls, will sag south into the Big Country tonight. A weak cold front extending from Lubbock eastward along the Red River valley this afternoon is expected to move slowly south into West Central Texas Tuesday. Models still slowly slide the center of the upper high toward the west this week. The ECMWF actually brings the upper high center over the four corners area by this weekend; the GFS doesn't push it that far west.
Regional WSR88D as still showing 30 to 40 dbz reflectivity returns across the TX panhandles into northeast oklahoma associated with the low to mid level baroclinic zone that since has shifted south. The severe threat will be minimal today and tonight with any storms that develop as continued amplification the the upper ridge weakened the shear profiles. The general low level moisture transport signal will remain firmly anchored across the the western counties where the main if any thunderstorms chances will be located, and the low level jet may be the best mechanism for get a few thunderstorms going.
932 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS EVENING CONSISTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
914 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. AND EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OHIO. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THIS HOUR THAN ANTICIPATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BROAD UPPER TOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WEST- NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AND NORTH WITH THE RIDGE RESULTING IN WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE SOURCE OF ALMOST DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE LAST WEEK OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY DEVELOP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW MEXICO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS THAT WILL SETTLE AT CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OR MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
1034 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
911 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTN HIGHS ON TUE WL BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TDA GIVEN PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN THE MORNING AND EVEN WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW THAN TDA.
Meanwhile, a cold front was in the process of moving south through the I-70 corridor. Dew points will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with values generally in the middle 60s. Upper level northwest to northerly flow aloft will then persist across the area for the remainder of this week as upper level high pressure slowly retrogrades across the southwestern United States.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO RESPOND TO APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
1235 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR I-70 WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 03Z.
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION HAS SHIFTED THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT. AND NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ALONG THE RIDGES AND IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRIES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BUT WITH RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL. WITH LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 CALM NIGHT WEATHER WISE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR WED INTO THU WHICH BASICALLY MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW. PCPN CHANCES HINGE ON WHETHER ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE.
RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK.
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IF A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS AND PULLS IN MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Weak cold front evident on radar imagery and extending from Lubbock to between Vernon and Wichita Falls, will sag south into the Big Country tonight. A weak cold front extending from Lubbock eastward along the Red River valley this afternoon is expected to move slowly south into West Central Texas Tuesday. Models still slowly slide the center of the upper high toward the west this week. The ECMWF actually brings the upper high center over the four corners area by this weekend; the GFS doesn't push it that far west.
WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.
606 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 PANHANDLE WITH RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS OF CANADA. CLOSED LOW OFF ISSUED AT 330 PM| CDT MON AUG 10 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. AND WITH NO REAL DEFINED WAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHERE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM MAY PUSH EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EVENING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. AS UPPER TROF AND PRECEDING LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVERSPREAD THE STATE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY QUICK PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STATE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TIMES THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THRU EASTERN PA IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROF AXIS STILL JUST WEST OF PA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
826 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO MID WEEK.
837 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 MARINE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO MID WEEK.
702 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF'S GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ONE HITTING ONE OF OUR TERMINALS, BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH. BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
1022 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. AND EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OHIO. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THIS HOUR THAN ANTICIPATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BROAD UPPER TOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
901 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATER TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 PANHANDLE WITH RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS OF CANADA. CLOSED LOW OFF ISSUED AT 330 PM| CDT MON AUG 10 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. AND WITH NO REAL DEFINED WAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHERE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM MAY PUSH EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. AS UPPER TROF AND PRECEDING LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVERSPREAD THE STATE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY QUICK PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STATE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TIMES THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THRU EASTERN PA IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROF AXIS STILL JUST WEST OF PA.
731 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER MICHIGAN AND THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP SUSTAIN THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TONIGHT AND NW WINDS TO BRING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR.