Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
251 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z. SOME BR HAD FORMED OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS COLDER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW POTENTIAL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF NW WI IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT DISSOLVES AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE FURTHER SEWD THROUGH THE AREA.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOWFALL DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGETOP WINDS NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
324 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER VA/NC AND THE 925 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BOTH SHIFT OFFSHORE. GRADUALLY DRAWING IN BOTH WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. TONIGHT: STACKED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. DUE IN LARGE PART TO PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES AS THE AXES OF THE 700-500 MB RIDGES HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA.
241 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
WITH AN EXPANDING BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NWD WITH HIGHER SURFACE TO 850 MB DEW POINTS IN A NARROW RIBBON LIFTING NWD FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO ERN NEBRASKA/WRN IOWA BEHIND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U. AND IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH A SECOND SURGE OF LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH. MOIST AIR RIDING IN ON STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S. COOLING INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE EARLY EVENING.
325 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER WILL BE NORTH OF THE CANDADIAN BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NE MN THIS AFTERNOON AND NW WI THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF THE FREEZING PRECIP AND ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NE MN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
1256 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER LOCALLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT LIKE THIS MORNING. WITH FULL SUN AND LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF. SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE TO BUMP UP HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST SD TO SOUTHWEST WY. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. 1037MB HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST NV. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UT BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN STALL. WHICH MAY RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER EASTERN FOOTHILLS WITH FROUDE NUMBER AROUND 1 FOR KRAP AT 12Z THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LAYS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LUSK TO EVANSTON EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AT THAT TIME WITH NORTHERN CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES SEEING THE FIRST SNOW.
THE DEEP MOIST FETCH WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
Steady southerly winds persist around 20 to 30 mph ahead of the low, with dry surface conditions. While temperatures will still be fairly mild through the day on Wednesday the low levels will remain saturated enough to bring some light drizzle or perhaps even some very light rain through the day time hours on Wednesday. Through the day on Wed and night on Thursday deep moisture will work its way into the area within the strong southerly flow in the low levels. Forecast soundings for the area indicate very deep saturation with strong isentropic ascent as well as some ascent from the approaching large trough to the west. Instead surface temperatures will likely fall below freezing across far northern Missouri, more toward the Missouri River. Expect temperatures on Thursday night to drop below freezing with precipitation ongoing.
/ISSUED 334 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S PRESENTLY. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE NATION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHWESTWARD REACHING RIDGE WILL REMAIN RESILIENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A WAVE DROPPING THE SURFACE PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ALL PERIODS THANKS TO MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS IN A PERSISTENTLY FAST-PACED FLOW. THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 50 DEGREES.
1026 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. WITH WINDS POSSIBLY BACKING EVEN FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 06Z THURSDAY AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND DEEPENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO MID 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE.
AN UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SWINGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. THIS LOW HAS BEEN WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK ACROSS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TO CENTRAL OREGON. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON WITH WINDS INCREASING IN PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND LOWER BASIN.
/ISSUED 1002 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/ MUCH WARMER TONIGHT.
356 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW LEVEL WAA THROUGH THE PERIOD/INITIALLY WEAK BUT WITH NEAR FULL INSOLATION FAVOR CURRENT FCST/WARMER MAV/EC GUIDANCE. BELIEVE LARGE SCALE/PERSISTENT MID TROP HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS NEVADA CUTOFF BECOMES REXED LENDS AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE FROM GOMEX INTO MID ATL. IN ADDITION TO ANTECEDENT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER POINT TO MUTED/INITIAL RESPONSE UNTIL GREATER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INFLUENCE AND ARRIVAL OF RICHER LLVL THETA-E RIDGING INTO CWA AWAITS FOR DYS2-3.
Over the next couple of days the area of high pressure that has dominated the region's weather the past couple of days will continue to slowly move off to the east while flow aloft backs from near zonal to southwest. As the upper low (the driving force behind aforementioned system) digs into the southwest US on Thursday, it will tend to hold back or slow significantly the eastward progress of the system.
1224 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
253 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS TRAVERSING THE SOCAL BIGHT. PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. REACHING THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS TONIGHT. -SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS AND OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AFT 25/0600Z THIS EVENING WITH -SHRA CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING W- NW WINDS 20-25 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
340 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS CWA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
1201 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY CREST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
The low should move just enough east to dry most areas out for Thanksgiving. other than some light showers or flurries over the higher elevations. Freezing conditions may occur in some places with the best chances over the eastern side of the valley where winds will likely be lighter.
1229 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
405 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 1015 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/ STRATOCU CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA IN NRN LA AND SRN AR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW.
THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MANY AS THE HIGH RES MODELS WERE SUGGESTING FOR THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER CALIFORNIA OR NEVADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
455 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 60S. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT NIGHT TONIGHT. AS LOWS ON THE RIDGES STAY IN THE 40S. AND LOWS IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WRAPPED AROUND THE EASTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS /INCLUDING THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS/ EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR /WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING/ AND GUSTY WINDS IN WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY SUPPORT THE WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NEW MODEL RUNS DEPICT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
348 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO LATE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SHOULD COME ASHORE THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN NEVADA BY WED MORNING. SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF ALONG THE HILINE BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE CLEARING LINE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THANKSGIVING DAY: MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AS A DRY, STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HAZARDOUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1032 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS.
WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT IFR LATE AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
ALL IS QUIET AHEAD OF THE WEDNESDAY ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WE HAVE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM OREGON TODAY TO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CREEPS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER ARE ALL WARMER THAN -10C. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START THIS EVENT. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TIL LATE MORNING THANKSGIVING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING OVER OUR AREA. THAT THE HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH. RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A RIDGE AXIS CONNECTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS IN A CAD FASHION. SO LOOK FOR HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY (MID 50S).
406 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
330 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015 The CWA is in between the high pressure to the east and the developing weather system in the plains. In this position, breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures are to be expected today.
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING FOR MORE COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS. THUS ADJUSTED LOWS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS ALONG/W OF I-55 CORRIDOR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE E. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER 30S EAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO SOME PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
HAVE REWORKED TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURE GRID MAINLY IN ORDER TO INCREASE VALUES WEST OF NASHVILLE GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS BEING OBSERVED THERE THIS EVENING.
237 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 60S. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT NIGHT TONIGHT. AS LOWS ON THE RIDGES STAY IN THE 40S. AND LOWS IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER 30S.
1224 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE NRN CA COAST IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT INLAND THIS EVE. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO ERN NV AT THIS TIME BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS EWD ADVANCE NOT MOVING INTO UT UNTIL AROUND 12Z WED AND REACHING THE I-15 CORRIDOR AROUND 21Z. PRECIP SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE ENDING THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SPLITS APART AND A NEW CENTER REFORMS OVER CENTRAL CA. SNOW MAY REDEVELOP LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BACK EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SW NC IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHILE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS IN SW VA AND EAST TN ARE AS WARM AS THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH-WEST PATTERN. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE ABOVE 10C ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND ABOVE 5C ACROSS NE/WESTERN IA AND SOUTHWESTWARD. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE AND ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.
A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WAVES OF PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND UNDER WINDY ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS NE FL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COASTAL SHOWERS PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO PUSH WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD FROM THE GULF DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF WINDY ONSHORE FLOW.
This warmer and more moist southerly flow will keep overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night, with most locations expected to stay above freezing. High pressure is dominating the weather across the eastern half of the country this afternoon. As the ridge axis slips further to the east, the winds are becoming more southerly. A steady southerly flow will develop across central IL Wednesday in response to gradients between high pressure centered over New England and developing low pressure over the central-northern Plains. a strengthening cold frontal zone will edge southeastward toward central IL.
1241 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
125 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY.
A SQUEEZE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A FULLY DEVELOPED BERMUDA HIGH AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER OLD MEX IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDS ESP ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS. EXCEPT REMAINING A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES DUE TO SURF TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EASE A LITTLE.
As the upper low, currently well south of Texas, moves north, stratus should build back into the eastern terminals, w/increasing chances of wraparound -SHRA. The upper low will edge east today with dry northerly flow aloft expected through the day. The upper low will begin to lift north into south and central TX tonight and Friday, increasing rain chances once again for mainly eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
412 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF AND WAS ORIENTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEAR THE SABINE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE LATER TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW FINALLY SHEARING OUT OVER SE.
654 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. THE SOUTH TERM FORECAST DEPENDS ON FUTURE TRACK OF THE MID TO UPPER LOW. WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND WEST TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE VALLEY.
/issued 328 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/ (Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently located across central Mexico and is forecast to begin to move northeast today and tonight, eventually reaching south Texas by early Friday morning. As this upper level low moves northeast, better lift will begin to overspread West Central Texas from southeast to northwest today. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
528 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING HAD GENERATED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS STILL HOLDING STRONG. A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HENCE THE HIGH FLOOD IMPACT IN THAT AREA. DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP PUSH SOME OF THE RAIN SLOWLY EASTWARD.
/ISSUED 213 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/ Cutoff upper low was still sitting and spinning over northern Mexico this morning. which may end up being the highway 69 corridor. The cutoff upper low will begin the process of opening up and reengaging with the westerly flow to its north.
The upper low will edge east today with dry northerly flow aloft expected through the day. The upper low will begin to lift north into south and central TX tonight and Friday, increasing rain chances once again for mainly eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
545 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT POISED TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PESKY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST MEXICO TODAY. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. WITH COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW NEARBY TODAY. ONE LAST DAY OF DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
1055 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IF THE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE TODAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
BUT FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LVL SE FLOW PULLS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE INTO AREA.
Moisture associated with an approaching warm front has begun to spread throughout the Northern Rockies this morning. Elsewhere across the area, breezy winds at the ridge tops has largely downsloped much of the valleys, where only very light rain has reached the ground. By this evening, round two of this storm system will begin to push through the region with a strong cold front. Areas mentioned above with the higher rainfall amounts could be at risk of seeing rock and mudslides creating yet another hazard.