Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
522 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
340 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. ON TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 90F.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA BUT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH CENTER SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD AND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RESULTING EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE HIGH WILL BRING AN EASTERLY WAVE OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO CHIHUAHUA TUESDAY.
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND SHOULD ENTER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUES.
221 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2015 A warming trend with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Weather disturbances running up on the outer edges of weak low pressure in the area are expected to move through Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho at various times through this time interval with the capability of producing some thunderstorms while passing through.
SUK /ISSUED 535 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ COLD FRONT ADVANCED SOUTH OF I90 THIS EVENING AND PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND MAINTAINED MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HELENA TO LEWISTOWN LINE WHERE THE AIRMASS IS WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS CONVECTION AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THIS WEEK. GRADUAL WARMING IS LIKELY AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA.
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA-WIDE.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH 500MB INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWED SOUTHEASTERLY STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH TROUGHING OUT WEST INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF. MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND BUILDS IN THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND A DEGREE WARMER ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S.
AFTER THAT GOES BY THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OF THE ANVIL CLOUDS AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT STEEPER THAN AVERAGE GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
EVOLVING AS EXPECTED WITH NW TO SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER IOWA BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP AS EASTERN FLANK OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE BOUNDARY. HRRR AND SPC 4KM WRF ALL SIMILAR TO MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN LIFTING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SW CWA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. QUESTION BECOMES LOCATION OF SUBSEQUENT RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCATION OF OUTFLOW FROM MCS BEING A FOCUS AS WELL AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVING CURRENT MCS WILL ALSO CAP ATMOSPHERE UNTIL MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHAT REMAINS ARE HOT AND STICKY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS RIDGE BEING ON THE ORDER OF 5950-5970DM.
NO MAJOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
322 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING THE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH DETERMINING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF QUICKLY TRAVELING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT.
348 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
/ISSUED 404 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TUESDAY KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TRACKING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE 594DAM RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST.
315 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015 (Today and tonight) An inverted trough/upper level low will remain across north Mexico/South Texas, while an upper level ridge builds into North Texas and Oklahoma. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the inverted trough are forecast to mainly remain across South/Central Texas as the upper level ridge suppresses most convection across West Central Texas. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s, with stratus development expected across the southern half of the area after midnight.
MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE WEST.
111 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
NEXT 24 HOURS MARKED BY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA SUGGEST/DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE FOREGIONG UPPER TROUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT BEFORE DISSIPATING (NAM DETERMINISTIC PROG CIN VALUES TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z MON.
455 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 HOT DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER US WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A LARGE RIDGE. COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IS NOT BAD FOR JUNE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL COOLING/DRYING AND LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT. BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THOUGH THERE COULD BE AN AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THAT REMAINS CLEAR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING. BUT ONLY TO THE AREA FROM LIMON AND AKRON NORTHEAST WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE INTO THE RIDGE THERE. COULD BE SOME OF THIS ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OR FOG ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. TIS A TALE OF TWO DISTINCT PATTERNS THIS WEEK WITH FIRST A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
634 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOW-COUNTRY NEAR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
436 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
Guidance does suggest that cold front will begin to approach northwest sections of the CWA by late this afternoon but progs also indicate a sizeable mid level cap with 700mb temps around 14C, and if forecast soundings are correct this cap will delay the onset of any convection until after 00z.
849 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM, MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.
1017 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
AS OUR QUASI-PERMANENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL.
ZCZC INDWRKAFD 040238 TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM 1241 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
1250 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A RETURN OF A DRIER AIRMASS AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AFTER MARGINALLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT TODAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 93 70 89 / 10 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 91 68 88 / 10 10 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 89 64 85 / 10 30 20 30.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM.
Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer conditions. Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip with the ridge axis in place. May have some thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the lower and middle 90s.
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE STORMS TIED TO THE COLD FRONT. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW IN THE WEST. THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB WAS FIRMLY LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL TO HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOMING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.
951 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE STORMS TIED TO THE COLD FRONT. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW IN THE WEST. THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB WAS FIRMLY LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL TO HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOMING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH STAGNATING ACROSS THE EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING PATTERN OTHERWISE PREVAILED OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND, A SFC/8H ANTICYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH A FEW SPOKES OF VORTICITY CIRCULATING ON ITS NORTHERN QUADRANT.
1013 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH. WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED IN.
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS REMAIN TO THE NORTH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER RESULTED IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM, MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
814 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH. WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
/ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control. Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. Models continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest. By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge, which has been so persistent over Texas, won't relinquish its position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas, from the west, each afternoon.
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED IN. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME.
MODELS STILL SHOW A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINK THIS TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR AND BEFORE HIGHWAY 25. BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WITH WEAK FORCING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIND/HAIL.
1037 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.
1006 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
1018 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER AS DRIER CONDITIONS LATELY HELPED US REALLY DROP QUICKLY AND COOLER LAST NIGHT. BLENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
744 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE RIDGE. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL LINGER.
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A RETURN OF A DRIER AIRMASS AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AFTER MARGINALLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT TODAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY NIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER.
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
Updated 935 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015 Forecast on track for highs in the low/mid 80s today. Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region and will continue to do so in the short term period. a degree or so warmer than yesterday.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. COOLER N WHERE THE CLD CVR WL BE MOST XTNSV. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW TAKES PLACE OFF THE GA COAST.
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
337 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. WED MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH BRIEF RIDGING. WED NGT THE RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTH AND A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
214 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. TOMORROW INSTABILITY INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES.
SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THESE REASONS. AFTER THE PCPN ENDS THU NIGHT IT LOOKS NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR FRI.