Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Synoptic Setup: A large High pressure heat dome is centered over the Four Corners region with the hot airmass spreading as far west as off the California coast and as far north as southern Idaho and southern Montana. A large closed low has moved on shore over Washington and southwestern British Columbia. Generally cooler air resides over the Canadian Plains. Today through Tonight: Anticipate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as the heat over southern Idaho and Montana charges north in a warm front and forms a ridge behind it which will move through the area as well. Peak heating aloft will happen as the ridge axis passes by around midnight. A strong downslope chinook will arrive behind this low with the cold front delayed until roughly Wednesday night.
240 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Cold front will settle along the southern fringes of the forecast area today. The front will be the most likely place for widely scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and then spread northward tonight as the front also returns north as a warm front. Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature on Wednesday. There will be low chances of thunderstorms in western areas near the surface lee trough with daytime heating.
There will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from the west through this evening as the trough gets closer to the Northland. Showers and storms will become likely later this evening, across the west, and the rest of the forecast area during the wee hours of Tuesday morning when the trough finally moves into the Northland and once the 20 to 30 knot low level jet finally kicks in. The threat of hail is low because of the humid vertical profiles, limited MUCAPE, limited overnight deep layer wind shear, and high freezing level heights around 14 to 15 kft. The 00Z NAM12 is quite the outlier, which suggest strong storms developing in the late afternoon across northeast Minnesota because of a much slower progression of the trough boundary. Highs will primarily be in the lower 80s.
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will keep temperatures near normal through mid week.
259 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 At the surface, weak high pressure continues over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level high across the southern half of the nation.
Wetter and cooler weather late this week into the weekend. A wetter and cooler weather pattern is forecast to develop over the region during this period.
/issued 826 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Drier subsident mid level air on the western side of an upper level low over the Atlantic offshore the southeast U.
The high resolution convective-allowing models (CAM) are not handling this nocturnal stuff well at all, given the weak forcing present.
A closed low tracking along the U. S/Canadian border will bring a dry cold front through the region this afternoon/evening. Breezy conditions will develop ahead of the front today in response to a surface thermal trough over eastern ID and southwest flow aloft mixing to the surface across higher terrain. Wednesday is dry with temperatures 8F to 15F degrees cooler than today (or around 10F degrees below normal) and a steady northwest wind.
256 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2016 The persistent ridge of high pressure will slowly weaken early this week and then will be replaced by a trough of low pressure by the end of the week. Central California interior is still under the influence of an upper level high pressure ridge. An upper level low pressure center has made its way onshore into WA state attm. The low center is progged to move inland and then lift NE into Canada by Wednesday. An associated trough of low pressure will push in to the NRN California region by Wednesday with increased onshore flow and gradually cooling temps.
With potentially warmer conditions on Wednesday, it's possible this advisory will be extended into Wednesday, and perhaps expanded in area to encompass more of the CWA. With the mid/upper ridge wedged into the region from the west, the better rain chances look to reside over the eastern half of the forecast area.
The region will be on the edge of upper level ridging. This low stratus is dominating right no with little fog across the region. Given the high moisture content, any storm could produce torrential rainfall.
210 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A persistent upper level low pressure system will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and this evening, some with brief heavy rain. Upr trof axis mves east into New Eng on Tue but there still looks to be a chance of mstly isltd conv over the hier gnd of the wrn Cats and NEPA east if I81.
A developing area of low pressure off the California coast will bring additional low chances of thunderstorms to the region from Wednesday into the weekend.
The low amplitude mid-upper level trough across the mid-Atlantic states will deepen through the Carolina's this afternoon as the ridge centered over the western gulf shifts into east Texas. Max temps will be near climo in the lower 90s.
312 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Weak low pressure south of New England will gradually drift out to sea today as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
307 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A broad mid and upper level ridge will remain anchored across the Southern Plains (a pattern not unusual for August) for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
143 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Bermuda high pressure will maintain humid conditions across the area through midweek, sparking scattered thunderstorms. A weak cold front will drop across the Carolinas Wednesday, stalling offshore and across South Carolina into late week.
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Upper level low pressure system was over northern MAN with a trough sweeping across the northern valley this morning. E-W upper level jet was on the south periphery of the upper low. Next upper trough was located off the Pacific Northwest coast and is expected to be a stronger system. Upper low will move across the area Thu with another upper jet on the south and east flanks.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 94 74 / 50 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 91 72 / 50 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 92 72 / 40 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 68 87 68 / 50 40 30 20.
Otherwise, today will be hot and dry as the sub-tropical upper level ridge continues to build over the area. Highs today will top out in the middle 90s to 104 degrees with the higher temperatures across the Rio Grande Plains. The highest heat indices today will be across the southeastern CWA where the higher dewpoints are expected. Much of the same can be expected tomorrow with temperatures a degree or two warmer as the ridge continues to support subsidence across the region.
The high moisture content with PWs of 2+ inches and relatively deep warm cloud depths are favoring good precipitation efficiency and high rainfall rates with estimated MRMS rainfall rates of 3+ in/hr.
Temperatures cool, especially inland, late this week and into the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the region.
Upper ridging largely dominates the Southern Plains through the forecast period. Isolated convection may develop within the higher terrain of NW AR into far SE OK by late week into the weekend but any coverage is likely to remain very low.
Southwest winds increase today in a very dry air mass ahead of a dry cold front for this evening. Cold frontal passage is expected in the evening, so just at the time when fire activity typically starts to decrease the cold front passage will give it a boost. Wednesday the upper level low driving the cold front will reach northwest Montana and cause showers and much cooler weather.
Temperatures cool, especially inland, late this week and into the weekend as an upper level trough moves over the region. The current synoptic snapshot has upper level high pressure over Southern California and upper level low pressure over the PacNW. The area of high pressure over SoCal has remained nearly stationary as of late leading to minor day to day changes in the sensible weather. The persistent upper level high weakens with lowering 500mb heights as a trough becomes established over the West Coast. The lowering H5 will likely lead to a deeper marine layer with a greater likelihood for coastal drizzle.
with thunderstorms returning to the high plains by Wednesday afternoon. a cold front remains nearly stationary across southern Converse and Niobrara Counties this afternoon. gusty westerly winds near 30-35MPH and humidities in the low teens are creating critical fire weather conditions for many areas. Going mainly dry for Tuesday as upper ridge axis looks to be overhead.
142 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through most of Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.
641 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Weak low pressure south of New England will gradually drift out to sea today as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
Nam shows a 500 mb trough over the northern plains 12z Thu which moves into the upper Great Lakes late Thu. In the extended, GFS and ECWMF show a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a trough in the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri which remains through Sat. Some shra/TS wl arrive on Tue ahead of an apchg lo pres trof. High pressure will linger across Lake Superior through Wednesday.
Central Alabama will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge, providing a northerly flow aloft. High temperatures today range from 90 to 96 with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s.
Tonight a warm front will begin to lift northward through the CWA. A low level jet is expected to develop late tonight which will override the warm front developing thunderstorms across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. The remainder of the day should remain dry however, with the warm front near the IA/MO border its not out of the question that convective temperatures be met and an isolated storm or two develops. The heat will also return as WAA increases across the area and upper level ridging builds into the area during the day. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 101-106 degree range. How conditions will continue with highs again in the low to mid 90s and heat indicies again in the 101-106 degree range.
A 594 dm high pressure center sits comfortably over East Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. with the Hill Country just a couple degrees cooler.
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows a mid/upper level ridge over the forecast area and centered roughly over east central Texas. Height rises again were noted at 02/00Z at KLCH and sites in the immediate region indicating a further strengthening of the upper ridge. Meanwhile, air mass is still rather moist with PWAT over 2 inches and mean RH over 65 percent, as low level ridge across the northern Gulf keeps a moist southerly flow at that level.
447 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A weak frontal boundary will drop from southern Virginia southward through North Carolina today through tonight, as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into New England.
The severe threat is low due to low amounts of environmental wind shear under the large upper high over the region. PV analysis and forecast model soundings indicate that upper ridge should be located over Texas during the longer term with several upper impulses impacting the forecast district during this time-frame.
342 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Mid level ridge stretched across Colorado with better moisture over the south and drier air over the north. On Wednesday the jet will be to the North of the state where a closed low will move west to east. The south will continue to be dominated by a ridge that will keep conditions mostly dry and warm. There will be scattered storms over the higher terrain as well as the Palmer Divide by Wednesday afternoon and evening with temperatures in the mid 90s.
650 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A weak frontal boundary will drop from southern Virginia southward through North Carolina today through tonight, as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into New England.
1046 PM PDT Mon Aug 1 2016 Our next cold front is expected to arrive early Tuesday bringing another windy day to the Inland Northwest.
/Issued 233 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016/ A weak pressure trough continues across northern GA. a weakness in the upper ridge will persist through tonight. On Tuesday, the high center currently across the central gulf coast will begin to retrograde into eastern Texas. BDL Long-range models continue to show a weak upper long wave trough drifting off the Atlantic seaboard by early Wednesday as high pressure builds east from Texas.
352 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2016 A weak boundary will drift southwestward across the region through today as high pressure builds in from the north.
Deep upper level low over northern Saskatchewan early this morning tracking northeast in Hudson Bay today. A couple of weak upper level waves/filaments to track through today-Wednesday, but likely struggling to generate any activity, as 850-700 mb theta-e troughing seen holding into Wednesday morning. By the time the narrow moisture axis arrives later Wednesday, upper level ridging is seen building into the State, which will act to suppress activity, not to mention instability is very low to non-existent (per gfs).
256 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Current surface map shows weak high pressure across eastern Montana into northern South Dakota. With 30-40kt low level jet tonight, should see some gusty downslope winds across the northern Black Hills and north of the Pine Ridge. Upper low moves across Montana Wednesday, with cold front slipping into northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota.
316 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2016 High pressure will keep temperatures near normal through mid week.
Mid-level high pressure and associated subsidence will maintain VFR conditions across the area for the next 24 hours. /issued 241 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Large H5 ridge dominating the southern US is currently centered roughly over far East Texas. Models are consistent with continuing to slighlty shift the ridge westward to central Texas, keeping the strong and subsident weather regime in place for the state. With no moisture changes forecast with the ridge during the next 36 hours, will continue with the persistent forecast of hot and more hot. The lack of moisture will also result in a lack of rainfall, with only a few clouds able to bubble up under the ridge right along the seabreeze tomorrow.
419 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A surface cold front is situated across northwestern MN early this morning. Temperatures today will be fairly close to climatological normals, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Upper-air analysis this morning indicates a deep layer mean ridge extending from the subtropical North Atlantic, westward over the central Florida Peninsula, placing the Florida Keys within a moderate easterly trade-wind flow.
As far as the synoptic set-up, there is an upper low over southeast Florida with broad high pressure centered over the south-central part of the country. The surface Atlantic ridge axis remains stretched across the central Florida peninsula. The position of the low-level ridge axis will keep a relatively light southeast flow in place to start the day, with the sea breeze circulation pushing inland through the afternoon. Broad upper ridging will remain anchored across the southwestern and south-central U. with a weakness in upper ridging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Weak upper troughing extending southward along the southeast U. coast will also be present, as upper ridging dominates the south-central CONUS.
418 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 An upper level ridge over the south central U. Latest 02/00Z model and numerical guidance does show good low level theta-e advection streaming northeastward upstream of the trough axis which remains near stationary for the latter half of the work week over eastern OK/TX. As a result, this shows the most persistent and the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms across the western Panhandles. H500 wind flow remains light and variable as our region remains under the ridge of high pressure, so as thunderstorms do develop, they will be slow moving which will limit their coverage. A stalled out front over Kansas in- conjunction with an upper level low pressure impulse moving along the ridge will provide perhaps some more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
120 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 The area will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough early this week. High pressure will then become suppressed farther to the south which could allow a weak cold front to approach from the north by the middle part of the week. Regardless, an inland trough will likely linger through the latter part of the week.
312 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Clear skies dominate while we sit directly underneath the axis of a midlevel ridge. At the surface, we sit on the periphery of high pressure, continuing our general trend of light south to southeasterly flow. The story of the short term forecast will be dominated by the ridge, which should drift slowly westward. It would not be impossible to squeeze out a storm or two along the seabreeze today or tomorrow, but it's tough to justify much in the way of PoPs underneath a ridge of this strength.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will remain over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period.
406 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A cold front will settle south into NC today as an upper level trough crosses the Mid-Atlantic state. High pressure will follow for Wednesday. A cold front over north-central VA will settle south into the area by this evening as an upper trough axis finally makes a push east across the region.
325 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A persistent upper level low pressure system will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and this evening, some with brief heavy rain.
Model guidance indicate a heat ridge will expand northeast towards the Ohio Valley during this period. After Tuesday, nothing synoptically really stands out for convective potential with generally weak flow in the lower level of the air mass. However, there may be another weak surface boundary that may drop into the area, and any embedded disturbances moving around the expanding heat ridge may spark off convective clusters at times.
/issued 430 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016/ Western Atlantic high pressure ridge will continue to be the main driver of South Florida weather through the week. Hi-res models then suggest initial surge of moisture, associated with weak disturbance and the outermost influence/inverted trough of the strong tropical disturbance wave approaching Jamaica, approaching later this evening. Fluxes of SAL will generally suppress widespread convection through the period, as high pressure will remain centered northeast of the region. The persistent southeast and east winds experienced over the past week or so, focusing convection toward the west coast, will gradually diminish and turn more south and southwesterly over the weekend as the high pressure weakens and a low pressure trough deepens across the northeastern United States.
and mean trofs along the coasts. This front will become stationary from SW-NE across KS tonight and eventually dissipate as the high drifts into the upr midwest. The MCS was at the terminus of the low-lvl jet. with trailing shwrs/tstms embedded within the low-lvl jet SSW all the way into Nrn OK. From then on, we will not be able to depend on the strength of the subtropical high to spare us from daytime perturbations and waves as it appears they will have the opportunity to skirt the north side of the ridge and affect our weather.
Afternoon and evening convection will be expected, due to the combination of diurnal instability, sea breeze interactions and proximity of trough.
/issued 306 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as upper level troughing remains a fixture across much of the western half of the nation.
/DL/ Today through Thursday night, Anomalous ridging over the ArkLaMiss region will maintain anticyclonic flow and general subsidence, thus limiting diurnal shower/thunderstorm coverage for most of the forecast area.
Today Through Thursday Night The pattern will become increasingly more unsettled this afternoon as a cold front arrives from the Plains. South of the front, ridging will keep much of the southeast dry this afternoon. Given no surge of cooler air with the front, temperatures in the near term will be above average.
mainly over the higher trrn and the Raton Mesa. Upper low will move east-northeast and slowly fill. with slightly cooler temps over the divides.
Broad subtropical ridging aloft and light winds will continue to maintain hot and humid September days and daily chances for isolated to scattered convection. is not likely to repeat a nocturnal cluster tonight, as a mid to upper level ridge axis has sharpened over Central TX. Only the Canadian model was brave enough to deepen the low as it moves closer to the ridge axis aloft, so the preferred model consensus is to weaken the system near the coast by late thursday with only a slight boost in PoPs for parts of the Coastal Prairies.
309 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper level pattern depicts a flat ridge over the southeastern states with a closed low along the NV-ID border creating rather broad southwesterly flow across the region. The closed upper low out west will begin to open and lift out on Thursday.
1232 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows large mid-upper level low centered over the Great Basin. Uncertainty remains on coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday morning and how much destabilization can occur toward peak heating ahead of the approaching cold front. Strong to severe storms are not out of the question late Thursday afternoon across central Nebraska and into our western counties which could then spread east across the entire forecast area Thursday night as the cold front slides east overnight.
Current satellite imagery shows our weather making upper low spinning over eastern Idaho. Satellite imagery also indicates some convection pushing northward across south central Wyoming which is likely related to the 500 MB jet streak rounding the upper low. In the meantime, the core of the upper low produces showers across our west and central areas as it tracks northeast out of Idaho.
On Thursday, northeasterly winds in the low levels, around Tropical Storm Julia just off the GA/SC Coast, will bring in much drier air currently located across WV/VA. Therefore, decreased PoPs for Thursday with the only mention of slight chance PoPs across the higher elevations along the TN/NC line.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend as high pressure slowly builds over the eastern Pacific. Temperatures this afternoon are generally running a few to several degrees above those from 24 hours ago as the upper level trough moves further into the Basin/Intermountain West.
the upper low moved over south central ID this aftn. The upper low is projected to move into MT by Thu. as the upper low is replaced by drier NW flow.
A low level trough persists in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is moving westward towards Texas. The Florida Keys are along the western extent of the low level ridge axis which is having trouble regaining ground from these two low pressure systems. Drier air in the lower and mid levels is on our doorstep, sampled by this morning's RAOB in NASSAU.
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will sweep across the North Country during the day today, bringing mostly cloudy conditions and a period of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A northwesterly wind shift will bring noticeably cooler air into the region tonight.
Models are showing enough subsidence, thanks to the remnants of TS Julia and weak upper ridging, to keep pcpn out of fcst on Thursday.