Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure centered over the Southern Plains will continue to slowly progress into the Southeast today. As temperatures drop below freezing early this morning, dense fog is also developing in counties along and east of I-65, as verified by surface observations and traffic cameras. Therefore, a Freezing Fog Advisory will be in effect until 8 AM today. Patchy dense fog may linger through the mid morning hours, but temperatures will lift above freezing and heating will allow the atmosphere to mix out much of the fog. Slick areas may be present on roads and bridges. Temperatures drop to the upper 20s to low 30s, allowing for potential freezing fog for areas below freezing.
The main westerlies remain displaced well north and south of the region through the bulk of the coming week with mean ridging over the western CONUS.
Weak large-scale subsidence via slight mid-level height rises is expected to dominate the Midwest for much of the day as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern U.
700-300 mb Q-vector convergence is forecast to be weak to moderate with the trough passage and there is not a strong fgen signal. However, given the strength of the wave, there may be enough lift to briefly saturate over a deep enough layer for a few snow showers, as indicated by several of the high res models, so have included some lower end precip chances.
CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Dry and slightly cooler conditions are on tap today.
/issued 323 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020/ Current temperatures across the Midsouth are mostly in the low to middle 30s with dew points near the same temperature or a degree or two cooler. As a result, patchy fog or freezing fog is possible this morning. The freezing fog looks to be isolated to areas near the Tennessee River in West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Temperatures have actually risen a degree or two in portions of North Mississippi over the last hour or two, so it does not look like a Freezing fog advisory will be needed.
Today through Sunday night Satellite perspective is showing barely a cloud in sight across the state as high pressure continues to be dominate the surface pattern. Upper pattern remains highly amplified at this time and highlighted by a sprawling upper ridge over the west and a deep troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. Areas of low pressure are seen over northern Mexico, northern Minnesota and racing up the east coast. The upper low off the east coast deepens rapidly into a nor'easter while the northern Mexico low lifts into northeast Texas by Sunday morning. Will only carry silent POPS right now over the south with temperatures slightly cooler than what will be seen today.
A weak cold front reached from Lake Erie west across central IL into northern MO.
The upper level ridge axis moves into eastern MT on Sunday, but overall observed weather will change little from Saturday.
321 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Dry and slightly cooler conditions are on tap today.
359 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Another mild day expected today as upper level ridge gradually builds across the srn Rockies. Clear skies and seasonably cold temps most areas again tonight under building ridge, although just enough wind in the lee of the eastern mountains to keep min temps on the warm side west of I-25.
349 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 WV imagery tonight depicts weak subsidence in the wake of a trof axis that crossed the area yesterday. Some cirrus is evident on IR, streaming swd on the ern periphery of the broader ridge that persists over most of the wrn CONUS. Continue to see some breezy NW winds across the w cntrl SD plains owing to pressure rises behind the aforementioned trof. High pressure advances towards our area over the next 12 hours, leading to a fairly calm day. Low- level thermal ridging nudges into the area Sunday, favoring even warmer temps.
Very little has changed with the forecast this morning as precipitation is already beginning to develop across the Davis/ Glass Mountains and the Lower Trans Pecos. The upper low over N. Large scale ascent associated with the upper low will lead to increasing precipitation over the next several hours. A deformation band is expected to develop on the north side of the upper low as it moves across the Big Bend today. Precipitation will end and skies will clear overnight as the upper low continues east across Texas.
An upper level low approaching the area has increased moisture just enough to introduce some showers over the western areas this morning. A coastal trough will develop early today and remain offshore. As the trough drifts to the west today, isolated showers will be possible as far west as Alice. The upper level low will move across north Texas, with drier air moving in, decreasing clouds and ending precipitation chances from west to east. Reinforcing high pressure will push into the area tonight, bringing more cold air.
Low pressure was centered over north-central Mexico this morning, continuing to head eastward. As the low heads away from Arizona expect that surface pressure gradients for gusty northeast winds will continue to weaken with essentially light winds today and Sunday.
354 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Light snow possibly mixed with freezing rain could create minor travel impacts late this morning through early this afternoon in northwest MN. Mid/upper low over southern Manitoba/far southwest Ontario will slide south over northwest MN through the day today, and an axis of WAA and positive frontogenesis will align in our eastern CWA. Dry air aloft could limit mid level saturation and ice crystal development, which if low level remain saturated could result in light freezing rain/drizzle rather than snow. The mid/upper low exits and drier/stable air remains in place with west-northwest BL flow this afternoon into Sunday.
147 AM PST Sat Dec 5 2020 Quiet weekend weather is expected with dry conditions, near normal temperatures, and light winds as high pressure remains over the region.
933 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure will prevail today. For the remainder of today, expect mostly sunny skies and no pops as ridge at the surface builds in from the west. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be near climo with mid 50s north to around 60 for the south. As winds subside and skies remain mostly clear, improved radiational cooling conditions will allow for lows around freezing for areas north of the metro. Southern stream system moving through Texas on Sunday will quickly eject in to the lower Mississippi Valley for the afternoon hours.
/issued 333 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020/ An upper level low in northern Mexico will push northeast into West Texas throughout the day. We remain in the cooler air north of the system, which will keep our temperatures a few degrees below normal, in the mid 50s. Winds will remain relatively light through the morning, becoming breezier out of the north this afternoon when the upper level low passes by, just to our south.
710 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Continue to monitor upstream trends as mid/upper trough slowly works it's way south. Light snow possibly mixed with freezing rain could create minor travel impacts late this morning through early this afternoon in northwest MN. Mid/upper low over southern Manitoba/far southwest Ontario will slide south over northwest MN through the day today, and an axis of WAA and positive frontogenesis will align in our eastern CWA. Dry air aloft could limit mid level saturation and ice crystal development, which if low level remain saturated could result in light freezing rain/drizzle rather than snow. The mid/upper low exits and drier/stable air remains in place with west-northwest BL flow this afternoon into Sunday.
417 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 The region will experience partly cloudy and cool conditions behind a cold front today.
There is also patchy to areas of fog/freezing fog across the entire area, with visibility of less than 1/4SM. Temperatures drop to the upper 20s to low 30s, allowing for potential freezing fog for areas below freezing.
128 AM PST Sat Dec 5 2020 Low pressure will bring a quick round of light snow showers to the far northern Sierra and northeast California tonight into Sunday.
342 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Dry air within a ridge of high pressure aloft will keep conditions dry across the forecast area today and tonight. Water vapor shows a dry intrusion associated with a trough over the upper Midwest moving southward toward Colorado this morning. While this feature will not bring any precipitation or even substantial clouds, it will bring slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday but it will still be a pleasant day for outdoor activities. Lows were dropped in the mountain parks where the snow cover and light winds will allow temperatures to drop to the low single digits.
326 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Dry and mainly clear conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure continues to dominate over the region.
430 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure and drier air will build in early today and remain over the area through Sunday.
/Issued 401 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020/ An upper low will track northeast across Texas today through early Sunday.
208 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 WV imagery tonight depicts weak subsidence in the wake of a trof axis that crossed the area yesterday. Some cirrus is evident on IR, streaming swd on the ern periphery of the broader ridge that persists over most of the wrn CONUS. Continue to see some breezy NW winds across the w cntrl SD plains owing to pressure rises behind the aforementioned trof. High pressure advances towards our area over the next 12 hours, leading to a fairly calm day. Low- level thermal ridging nudges into the area Sunday, favoring even warmer temps.
323 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Current temperatures across the Midsouth are mostly in the low to middle 30s with dew points near the same temperature or a degree or two cooler. As a result, patchy fog or freezing fog is possible this morning. The freezing fog looks to be isolated to areas near the Tennessee River in West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Temperatures have actually risen a degree or two in portions of North Mississippi over the last hour or two, so it does not look like a Freezing fog advisory will be needed.
401 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 An upper low will track northeast across Texas today through early Sunday.
Some mid to high clouds will also spread over the area this evening and tonight as an upper level low tracks south of the area. Also increased sky cover across far southern Oklahoma for this afternoon as an upper level low tracks across central and northern Texas.
1042 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Another mild day expected today as upper level ridge gradually builds across the srn Rockies. Clear skies and seasonably cold temps most areas again tonight under building ridge, although just enough wind in the lee of the eastern mountains to keep min temps on the warm side west of I-25.
The upper level low will move northeast across Brownwood tonight and expect the slight chance of rain to end and skies to clear through the overnight.
A weak surface cold front currently working across northeast Oklahoma will move south and east of the Tulsa CWA late tonight. This will result in a slightly cooler day on Sunday.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Clouds will continue to be on the increase this evening and overnight as the closed low quickly lifts northeastward across Central Texas and provide for some isentropic forcing across our region. On Sunday, the upper low will continue to shift northeastward into the region and help drag a weak cold front with it. Dry weather will return late Sunday as the upper low will weaken and move eastward out of the region.
In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or weak ridging will be over the region until another trough approaches tomorrow afternoon/evening. At the surface, high pressure will be over the region tonight with northerly low level flow. Tomorrow, clouds will increase ahead of a developing low pressure system. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 60s.
Temperatures will quickly turn warmer however, becoming several degrees above normal this afternoon. Low pressure was centered over north-central Mexico this morning, continuing to head eastward. As the low heads away from Arizona expect that surface pressure gradients for gusty northeast winds will continue to weaken with essentially light winds today and Sunday.
A broad upper ridge remains in place across the western US with the axis centered over western Montana. The ridge axis moves closer to the western Dakotas Sunday, promoting even warmer temperatures than today. Highs should range from the lower 40s across the Turtle Mountains, to near 60 across portions of the southwest.
The culprit is an upper low centered near Big Bend, which is producing extensive cloudiness across the region and even some snow to the mountain areas of southwest Texas. We actually have some mid-level ascent and moisture present over our forecast area this afternoon, courtesy of the deformation zone on the NW/N flank of the upper low. However, dry air and lack of any forcing in the low-levels will keep our area dry, save for the possibility of a few sprinkles across the southern Rolling Plains. The upper low will track E-NE overnight and Sunday into NE TX leaving us with clearing skies in dry, northerly flow. The upper-level low will quickly progress eastward as a high-amplitude ridge builds in behind over the western U.
These waves will reinforce the upper trof over the lakes and will spread additional mid and high clouds across southern Lower MI tonight into Sunday night.
Pre-frontal showers will continue to press south of NE FL through sunrise trailed by the surface cold front. Mostly sunny skies will prevail today, although high cirrus will increase from the WSW later this afternoon and tonight as southern stream jet moisture pivots northward over the area as a closed upper level low across TX/Mexico translates eastward. Breezy post-frontal winds gusting near 20-25 mph at times early this morning will relax through the course of the day as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures will trend below climo today and tonight with highs from near 60 across inland SE GA to the low/mid 60s across NE FL.
830 AM PST Sat Dec 5 2020 Quiet weekend weather is expected with dry conditions, near normal temperatures, and light winds as high pressure remains over the region.
334 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Current radar and satellite depicts a quasilinear area of stratocumulus south of the Lower and Middle Keys and associated shower activity.
228 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 500mb analysis shows a low pressure system across western TX with zonal flow aloft across the SE. At the surface, weak high pressure centered near the ARKLAMISS will translate quickly eastward overnight and early tomorrow.
307 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Low pressure will strengthen as it moves off to the northeast this evening.
110 PM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Quiet weather will continue to end the weekend and start the new week as a ridge of high pressure will be positioned over the northern Rockies.
Upper troughing settles over the region this evening with cold Canadian airmass pushing in at the surface. Upper level trough overhead will keep it cloudy but not enough instability to generate some showers.
Also increased sky cover across far southern Oklahoma for this afternoon as an upper level low tracks across central and northern Texas.
1116 AM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 An amplified pattern is in place with sharp an upper level ridge over the Rockies and a dry n-nw flow aloft. We will see a minor wind shift today with cooler but seasonable temperatures Sunday after a mild day today.
Low pressure deepening off the east coast will reach the Gulf of Maine tonight. Due to the marginal temperatures aloft only minimal accumulations are expected, although the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Bristol Hills could see an inch or so of accumulation by Sunday morning. A large scale trough will be over the eastern third of North America for the start of the week. Multiple closed lows will rotate around the eastern Great Lakes while as a screaming upper level jet moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The main trough will sharpen leaving the eastern Great Lakes on the backside.
1240 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure and drier air will build in today and remain over the area through Sunday.
Aloft, northwesterly flow prevails over the area with an upper level ridge centered over the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will dominate the short term period as it slowly progress eastward and lead to dry and progressively warming conditions. Guidance has largely been too cool the last few days with regards to highs, so feel safe sticking with the higher solution given no big airmass changes anticipated.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 31 55 36 46 / 0 0 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 30 51 35 43 / 0 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 29 51 35 43 / 0 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 26 49 33 41 / 10 0 0 30 30.
1232 PM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Very little change in the upper air pattern through Sunday with the high amplitude ridge of high pressure in control over Colorado. A weak Pacific system incoming off the Pacific Northwest will encounter the ridge force field and drop southward through the Great Basin on Sunday.
235 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Currently have a nor'easter lifting across the Northeast Seaboard with a closed low migrating towards southwest TX. Southern Plains closed low will continue sliding east and will be approaching the Arklatex region by late Sun morning. This will all result in persistent upper troughing from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley with below normal temps for the same region.
55 High pressure will dominate through the day before a weak area of low pressure approaches late in the period. Today through Sunday night Satellite perspective is showing barely a cloud in sight across the state as high pressure continues to be dominate the surface pattern. Upper pattern remains highly amplified at this time and highlighted by a sprawling upper ridge over the west and a deep troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. Areas of low pressure are seen over northern Mexico, northern Minnesota and racing up the east coast. The upper low off the east coast deepens rapidly into a nor'easter while the northern Mexico low lifts into northeast Texas by Sunday morning. Will only carry silent POPS right now over the south with temperatures slightly cooler than what will be seen today.
Cloud cover today has kept us a few degrees cooler, despite the patchy sunshine across portions of north-central Wisconsin. High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 30s tomorrow. An upper level low and LFQ of a jet streak streak will drop south through the region Sunday night. There is a possibility that moisture will not be deep enough to ensure ice crystals in the saturated layer over northern WI, so there is a low potential for light freezing drizzle there.
1234 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper low over southwest Texas will continue to move east- northeast to our south across Texas. The clouds and the precipitation chances will shift out of the area through the day on Sunday as the upper low moves away. The temperature at Buffalo is 15 to 20 degrees cooler than mesonet sites southeast of the snow area as close as Fairview, Cherokee or Taloga.
113 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 Conditions will once again become favorable for fog tonight, and in some cases, freezing fog. On Sunday, the high pressure will shift east as a strong northwest flow low drops southeast through the eastern Corn Belt and middle OH Valley, and the upper low moving through TX begins to advance into the lower MS valley.
The apex of the exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure has moved directly over the Northern Rockies today, further strengthening the valley inversions across the region. A dry cut-off low pressure system will dive south out of the Pacific Northwest into southern Idaho during the day Sunday. Some areas may see a slight improvement in air quality due to this low pressure system and colder air in the mid-levels, allowing for some slight ventilation. However, this will not clear out the inversions, as the ridge of high pressure returns by the end of the day on Sunday.
With light winds and high pressure lows should fall into the lower to mid 20s. Sunday will continue with mainly northerly winds aloft and high pressure near the surface.
943 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Dry and mainly clear conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure continues to dominate over the region.
The ESTF short range portion of the forecast consists of highly amplified/meridional flow over the region while an anomalously strong upper level ridge is positioned off to the west/northwest of the CWA. The additional wrinkle is that surface analysis and short range models are picking up on the potential for a cold front to back-door its way into the CWA from the east/northeast later tonight. But, this could present a situation where low temperatures tonight across/east of the Prairie Coteau could be several degrees cooler than the rest of the CWA. The strong upper level ridge to our west/north will become increasingly dampened by jet stream energy working into the Pac NW early in the week.
133 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 Broad upper trough holds over the East Coast of the US while upper low over Texas quickly opens and moves in fast southern jet stream over the Gulf Coast region next few days. Weak cool front will continue to move southward over S FL this afternoon/evening as high pressure moving through the region will dry conditions through tonight into Sunday.
Clouds will move in for much of the first part of the forecast as a series of upper level lows move across the area.
This upper low will then slowly move eastward late tonight into Sunday, evolving into an open wave before reaching the lower Mississippi River by late Sunday afternoon. It is also expected to phase with a northern stream trough late in the day on Sunday. 2 inches by Sunday afternoon, with the highest moisture content remaining along the coastal areas. As the trough approaches the region on Sunday, there will probably be just enough forcing and moisture to kick off isolated to scattered rain showers area-wide during the afternoon.
Another upper trof over Mexico remains well south of the area, while an even smaller scale wave has moved across Eastern Kansas today. Pattern nearly repeats itself overnight into Sunday with the Great Lakes wave, and will bring another day with highs at or just a few degrees cooler than today in the upper 40s to low 50s. As the upper waves to the east interact within the larger upper eastern trof, the western high holds its ground, and sends the next Pacific NW trof southward across the west coast into the early week.
but is still in the favorable diffluent zone ahead of the 500 mb closed low that will be centered over the Texas Big Bend at that time. and dry air quickly ends first the rain than the clouds (via lifting ceilings before a full clear-out) for the lower Valley by or just after daybreak. and dissipate altogether by mid morning as surface winds at the lower Valley terminal strengthen and begin to gust before noon Sunday.
Latest water vapor imagery is showing an upper low over the upper Midwest that is sinking southward.
1013 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Warm/dry weather expected to continue as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Upper level high pressure centered over Idaho this morning. Do not see any change in the weather pattern through the short term as high pressure remains in place.
1044 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 The region will experience partly cloudy and cool conditions behind a cold front today.
A weak low pressure system will bring light snow mainly to southeast Oregon Sunday morning, although cannot rule out snow reaching far western Idaho.