Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
516 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 System passing across the region today will drag a cold front through behind it. An upper level short wave trough over northern New Mexico this morning will move eastward across the South Plains and Panhandle today, but there is very limited moisture available with system. A wind shift to the north with little temperature change from yesterday is all that is expected as a weak cold front associated with the upper trough moves across the forecast area. Upper level ridging behind the departing trough will initiate a warming trend for the weekend. Mild temperatures will persist at least through Christmas Eve with mid level southwesterly flow ahead of a West Coast upper trough.
Main changes overnight were to continue to delay the onset of precipitation into the Sierra, raise snow levels, and increase ridge winds through the weekend. Ridge winds are already beginning to pick up in response to incoming trough with winds mixing into some lower western Nevada valleys overnight, Washoe in particular. The storm for the weekend remains in the week category for snow in the Sierra due to the southerly oriented jet stream and splitty nature of the incoming trough.
406 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 A compact closed upper low will move from northeast New Mexico east across southern Oklahoma today into Saturday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and Saturday as well due to increased cloud cover.
957 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure today with plenty of sunshine/light winds.
244 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Dry conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail for the short term, as a ridge of high pressure crosses over the region. This weekend still looks quiet as an upper ridge moves over the region, and as a result temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees above normal.
245 AM PST Fri Dec 20 2019 Mostly sunny and warmer today along with locally gusty northeast winds mainly in foothills. Look for increasing clouds and a cooling trend this weekend as a trough of low pressure arrives. High pressure aloft has brought this warmup and it peaks today.
306 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Upper ridging will help guide mild temperatures and dry weather conditions across the region for today. As the ridge axis slides downstream of the CWA late Saturday afternoon or evening, look for an increase in clouds over the forecast area.
Dry and benign weather through the weekend as upper level ridge builds across western Wyoming this weekend.
An upper level trough is moving across New Mexico this morning. Downstream of the trough axis, light rain and showers have developed over South Texas. Showers will move into South Central Texas later this morning as the upper trough pushes to the east. A cold front will develop over West Texas later this morning and move through our CWA this afternoon and tonight. Highs will be a little cooler than yesterday where it's cloudy and warmer where it's not. Saturday with sunny skies temperatures will be warmer across the area.
305 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Skies cleared pretty quickly behind yesterday's trough, though there are some clouds and a few flurries in Grand county and upstream to about Craig. Temperatures should wind up a little warmer than yesterday's highs. With clear skies and light winds, it will still be cold in the low lying areas, but warmer than this morning. An upper level ridge will be over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday and Saturday night.
624 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure today with plenty of sunshine/light winds.
538 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front will continue moving across the south central and southeastern TX Panhandle this morning with northwest to north winds in its wake. /Issued 403 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ The upper level low pressure system currently moving east southeast across northern New Mexico towards the far sw TX Panhandle is forecast to continue that same general motion across the srn TX Panhandle and into sw OK by late this afternoon. The associated cold front extending from east of KLBL to southeast of KDUX to southeast of Bootleg will move through the remainder of the fcst area by around 18Z today with northwest to north winds in its wake.
/Today through Saturday/ An upper trough currently over New Mexico will move eastward into Central Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday before finally digging southeast across North and East Texas. However, the trough will be nearly overhead, so the strong lift may be enough for at least a slight chance of isolated to widely scattered showers across most of the area during the day Saturday.
434 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Dry conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail for the short term, as a ridge of high pressure crosses over the region. This weekend still looks quiet as an upper ridge moves over the region, and as a result temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees above normal.
Closed 500 mb low pressure currently over the Four Corners region will gradually move east through the Central Plains and then southeast into east Texas and Louisiana through the period. On Saturday, precipitation chances will rapidly decrease and/or end from west to east as a deep mid-level trough associated with the closed 500 mb low gradually moves through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Base of the upper level trough situated across New Mexico and the Tx Panhandle will trek eastward across the Red River between now and Saturday, then dig southward down East Texas and into Louisiana Saturday night. Closer to the surface, expect a coastal trough to develop along the central and south Texas coastline today and move southeastward in the the Gulf tonight and Saturday. Precip should gradually move into the region later this afternoon & tonight before tapering off Saturday morning as the sfc and upper troughs depart. There may still be some isolated shra lingering thru the Saturday afternoon and evening hours across the northeast parts of CWA closer to the upper low.
308 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Ridging over the region will bring mainly dry, warm, and breezy conditions to the area today through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure southwest of the area and lee-side troughing over central Montana will maintain a tight pressure gradient with strong winds for the western gap areas. Some weak energy working in from the southwest under the ridge will keep a chance for snow for the mountains around Cooke City today.
Dry with afternoon high temperatures trending warmer through the weekend.
336 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 High clouds will move through today ahead of an upper level low that will move NM to the Red River Vly in southern OK by 12z/6am Sat. The higher clouds will shift east with south winds diminishing tonight.
340 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 (Today and Tonight) High clouds streaming across the area ahead of an approaching upper level trough. At the surface, low level moisture is increasing across central Texas with dewpoints in the lower 40s. This moisture will continue to spread north across the Heartland and Hill Country, with lift from the approaching trough producing a few showers across the area.
A deepening upper trough will move across the Southern Plains today with our region mostly on the backside of this system. Don't expect much change heading into this weekend as mid level ridging builds across the region.
403 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 The upper level low pressure system currently moving east southeast across northern New Mexico towards the far sw TX Panhandle is forecast to continue that same general motion across the srn TX Panhandle and into sw OK by late this afternoon. The associated cold front extending from east of KLBL to southeast of KDUX to southeast of Bootleg will move through the remainder of the fcst area by around 18Z today with northwest to north winds in its wake.
/Issued 406 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ A compact closed upper low will move from northeast New Mexico east across southern Oklahoma today into Saturday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and Saturday as well due to increased cloud cover.
347 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Deep upper trough continues to move eastward with northern stream wave lifting into the Upper Midwest and southern wave in the midst of cutting off from the flow. Another deep upper low churning off the Pacific NW coast will slowly dig into the SW US over the next few days. Result of all of this will be large-scale ridging over the central US through the weekend.
With that system, there is at least a small chance for rain or snow then, with cooler temperatures to end the week.
Temperatures aloft at 850 mb will be cooler today than yesterday and do not expect much mixing due to the light winds. Consequently, expect high temperatures today should be no warmer than yesterday and perhaps even a few degrees cooler in most areas. The combination of light winds and clear to mostly clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling and lows back down into the lower 20s.
Other than some lingering light precipitation over northern Shasta County this morning, dry conditions are expected to continue today as ridging gradually shifts east. The dry weather is expected to hold across much of the area into Saturday as the offshore trough digs, slowing the eastward progression of the cold front as it becomes more north to south oriented with time.
This moisture combined with lift from the upper level trough over north Texas and the frontal boundary will result in widespread showers today. The weak cold front will move through this evening shifting winds to the north, but remaining fairly light. The upper level trough is slower to move east delaying the drier air until Saturday. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler on Saturday for the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. As clouds clear out on Saturday, the Brush Country will be a few degrees warmer than today.
This slightly cooler airmass could going into the overnight hours, coupled with snow melt, will increase our chances of radiation fog forming as clouds clear out over the area tomorrow night into Saturday morning.
635 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Dry and increasingly warmer conditions will prevail into the weekend as well as heading into Christmas. Yet another weak trough will move through tonight, increasing mid and high clouds but remaining dry. Somewhat zonal flow will setup as deep closed low drifts across the Gulf Coast states.
Updated at 210 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Warming trend to continue today, as high pressure at the surface and aloft continues over the region.
437 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 High clouds will move through today ahead of an upper level low that will move NM to the Red River Vly in southern OK by 12z/6am Sat. The higher clouds will shift east with south winds diminishing tonight.
As well-advertised for many days now, the coming weather pattern in the lead up to Christmas looks very quiet and increasingly warmer, with little in the way of significant forecast concerns, save for just how warm temperatures end up the next few days. Outside of thicker cirrus rolling overhead and a touch of lower stratus clipping the I-94 corridor, just not much weather with that feature, nor will there be into tonight as the upper trough approaches, eventually kicking said cirrus east, while a touch of lower clouds perhaps just clips areas north of I-94 again as a weak cold front crosses the area. Otherwise, just not much to talk about into the weekend, with robust longwave ridging building across much of the central CONUS in response to a deepening western trough.
411 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Upper trough sliding east out of Colorado early this morning, with nly flow aloft in its wake across most of the region. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, heights begin to rise as upper level ridge builds into the area from the southwest U. Strong low level inversions over interior valleys will be slow to mix out once again, keeping maxes near or below freezing over most of the San Luis Valley another day.
High temps will reach the lower to mid 70s within a degree or two of normal values for Dec 20th.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Pressure ridge extending from the Mid Atlantic region will extend into the area. Afternoon temps warmer than yesterday due to air mass modification but still unseasonably cool. Upper level ridge will be shifting to the east of the region tonight. Models indicate the cloudiness will increase later tonight ahead of upper level low moving into the southern Plains. Temperatures should remain above freezing at most locations.
Upper level ridge begins to rebound overnight and into the weekend which will continue our dry conditions along with turn our flow more out of the south and west. With a strong inversion overhead, main question will continue to be how much mixing can be achieve with every little bit resulting in warmer temperatures.
After a chilly start this morning, temperatures have quickly rebounded up into the low to mid 30s. Current satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming in from the west out ahead of a strengthening low pressure system spinning over the TX panhandle. A deepening upper low pressure system will track east across the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma on Saturday, before diving south toward the Gulf Coast. At the sfc, low pressure will form over the eastern Gulf and eventually track near the FL panhandle late in the weekend.
Gilstad Ridging over the region will bring mainly dry, warm, and breezy conditions to the area today through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure southwest of the area and lee-side troughing over central Montana will maintain a tight pressure gradient with strong winds for the western gap areas. Some weak energy working in from the southwest under the ridge will keep a chance for snow for the mountains around Cooke City today.
Upstairs, an approaching mid/upper low across the TX/OK panhandles is keeping a primary southwest flow aloft, with mid to high level cloudiness streaming across the region. This, coupled with the cool high pressure ridge, has kept temperatures in the 50s this afternoon. With the low dewpoints in the 30s, most of this is not reaching the ground. The approaching mid/upper level low expected to move over TX/LA this weekend, inducing surface cyclogenesis across the Northeast Gulf.
138 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 WV/IR imagery indicate a broad area of high clouds over the Pac NW and nrn Rockies associated with a jet atop a SW-NE oriented mid-to- upper ridge. The only cyclonic feature of note across the CONUS is an upper low centered over the srn Plains, with a corresponding shear/trof axis extending nwd into wrn Ontario. Skies are becoming increasingly overcast owing to the high clouds along the ern periphery of the aforementioned wrn ridge, and warming temps over the hills/foothills are indicative of the approaching low-level thermal ridge. Midlevel ridge will shift ewd toward our area this weekend, with the axis roughly overhead by Sat night/Sun AM.
Currently a longwave ridge is developing over the western into the central CONUS. That ridge is in front of a large Pacific system, centered near 145W.
1011 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Near term on track given morning obs trends and should have a rather pleasant and cool day on tap with ridge dominated dry conditions. Some high to mid level clouds will be on the increase from the west later as moisture return kicks in ahead of the developing trough to the west.
/Issued 913 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ In addition to boosting rain chances to 90-100 percent over the eastern half of the region today, the forecast was updated to remove mention of thunder while also trimming highs a bit cooler in most areas.
Low temperatures tonight will be dependent on how quickly the cirrus exits, but current thoughts are much of the area should drop into the low to mid 20s with the lowest temperatures across 1-70 corridor where the snow remains in place.
High resolution models keep most of the shower activity south and east of the area, as an upper level low tracks across the South Plains. /issued 340 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ (Today and Tonight) High clouds streaming across the area ahead of an approaching upper level trough. At the surface, low level moisture is increasing across central Texas with dewpoints in the lower 40s. This moisture will continue to spread north across the Heartland and Hill Country, with lift from the approaching trough producing a few showers across the area.
A trough will be located along the Atlantic coast through Tonight. Lift and convergence associated with the trough will also provide for a chance for showers, mainly at the coast.
Conditions should improve to VFR with precipitation coming to an end following the passage of the trough axis by around 16z Saturday morning, with winds shifting to northwesterly. An upper level trough is moving across New Mexico this morning. Downstream of the trough axis, light rain and showers have developed over South Texas. Showers will move into South Central Texas later this morning as the upper trough pushes to the east. A cold front will develop over West Texas later this morning and move through our CWA this afternoon and tonight. Highs will be a little cooler than yesterday where it's cloudy and warmer where it's not. Saturday with sunny skies temperatures will be warmer across the area.
1213 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Dry and increasingly warmer conditions will prevail into the weekend as well as heading into Christmas. Yet another weak trough will move through tonight, increasing mid and high clouds but remaining dry. Somewhat zonal flow will setup as deep closed low drifts across the Gulf Coast states.
/44/ Prior discussion below: High pressure is slipping to the east and winds should pick up more of an easterly component through the day. The low will pull moisture and warmer temperatures inland, wrapping precipitation around it and up into southern portions of the state.
Lower clouds however will begin to develop/spread north into central/south-central Oklahoma this afternoon in association with approaching upper low.
Broad upper ridging will build over the eastern US late this weekend as a closed upper low crosses the southern Miss. Moisture associated with this low will remain far to our south, and dry weather with above-normal temperature should continue through Christmas. VFR conditions will continue through the period, with wind gradually turning clockwise in response to eastward moving high pressure. High pressure will support general VFR through the weekend.
316 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Cold high pressure will crest over the region through the weekend.
The rest of the day will be quiet with 5-10 mph southerly winds on the eastern periphery of expansive high pressure over the eastern CONUS and we will top off in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most locations, warmest in Chicago/Rockford where we could still reach the mid 40s. There is an upper trough across the upper Midwest with an associated weak surface front. This will cross the lower Great Lakes tonight.
1037 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Upper trough sliding east out of Colorado early this morning, with nly flow aloft in its wake across most of the region. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, heights begin to rise as upper level ridge builds into the area from the southwest U. Strong low level inversions over interior valleys will be slow to mix out once again, keeping maxes near or below freezing over most of the San Luis Valley another day.
These breezes have been maintained by strong high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS, although the stalled frontal boundary over Cuba has helped to enhance the gradient. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. From synopsis, the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters remain wedged between a stationary front across Cuba and the southern Bahamas and strong high pressure over the Southeast U.
258 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 The upper level pattern shows an area of low pressure spinning over the western Red River Valley this afternoon. For us, it should be a nice start to the season with temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above average in the low and mid 50s. An upper-level ridge builds into the area for the weekend ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western CONUS.
Meanwhile, in the lower levels, dry high pressure remains wedged in from the northeast with dewpoints remaining mostly in the 30s.
241 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 A mild chinook flow beneath a broad building h500 ridge has been slowly eroding the low level stratus and clearing clouds this afternoon. Saturday, as the compressional heating beneath the large dominate ridge pattern continues, we begin to see some very warm h850 temperatures on all the models.
1120 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 High clouds will move through today ahead of an upper level low that will move NM to the Red River Vly in southern OK by 12z/6am Sat. The higher clouds will shift east with south winds diminishing tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 35 53 42 / 0 0 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 32 53 39 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 51 31 53 38 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 29 52 35 / 0 0 0 10.
116 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Light northwest flow currently prevails at the surface and aloft behind the trough that passed through the area this morning. Temperatures should be able to push into the 50s on Saturday with continued clear skies and the mid/upper level ridge building overhead.
218 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Stratus continues to exit to the east this afternoon as the upper trough moves into MN. Upper ridging builds in tonight so most areas will see warmer temps with steady or rising temps in the east as places along and east of I-29 will not have the chance for much daytime heating due to the stratus. Model guidance has trended lower under the ridge.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Pressure ridge extending from the Mid Atlantic region will extend into the area. Afternoon temps warmer than yesterday due to air mass modification but still unseasonably cool. Upper level ridge will be shifting to the east of the region tonight. Models indicate the cloudiness will increase later tonight ahead of upper level low moving into the southern Plains. Temperatures should remain above freezing at most locations. The models have become more consistent with the timing of a developing low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the short term. Moisture advection into the Southeast increases as the low deepens.
228 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Winds have been out of the north for much area since just after sunrise and that will continue into the evening hours behind the weak cold front that pushed south through the region overnight. Winds will remain light throughout the day tomorrow as ridging sets in quickly overnight behind the exiting upper level low to the east.
252 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 An upper level low pressure system currently over the Texas Panhandle will move east into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Light rain and drizzle from the upper level low will begin to spread into portions of Northeast Mississippi by Saturday afternoon.
Not as much wind today and slightly cooler than yesterday, but still mild for this time of year. Rain chances, though small at best, increase tonight mainly to the west and south of Tulsa as the upper low currently over the TX Panhandle approaches. /Issued 406 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ A compact closed upper low will move from northeast New Mexico east across southern Oklahoma today into Saturday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and Saturday as well due to increased cloud cover.
Lows tomorrow will range from the teens in the lower valleys to 20s elsewhere.