Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our attention then shifts to the deep closed low that has been slowly drifting east over Mexico. All model guidance is in agreement that this low will cross the Big Bend region of Texas early Monday and accelerate northeastward as it opens up.
This feature will move across the region tonight helping to push a cold front south across the area. A stronger upper level low pressure now over northwest Mexico will lift northeastward Monday into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and take on an increasingly negative tilt. There remains uncertainty as to how far north a developing surface warm front and quality low level moist warm sector airmass will lift on Monday night.
An unusually south positioned upper low, now across western Mexico east of the southern Baja continued to send a deep fetch of moisture across much of the eastern lower-48. Weak high pressure building in from the northwest should shunt most of the rain south of the region during the late night. Lows otherwise will only cool into the low/mid 40s.
1224 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure over the area will move east late today. High pressure will build back in for Monday.
The high terrain has been seeing good snow accumulations since last night but it has taken longer for many valley locations to see snow. The transition to cooler and more unstable is currently taking place which is now resulting in the formation of snow bands.
Just ahead of this last short wave/precip band is an area of low level moisture and south- southeast winds and drizzle and pockets of light freezing drizzle.
1109 AM PST Sun Dec 4 2016 Deep low pressure will bring rain, wind, and heavy mountain snow to the Inland Northwest today.
307 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east of the region Monday morning. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at least through Monday morning.
A upper ridge will reside across the area today while high pressure settles south over the Atlantic and eases westward. The upper ridge will preclude any significant rainfall despite a subtle increase in moisture as low level flow shifts from easterly to southeasterly. High pressure eases westward across the waters with easterly winds becoming southeast and south.
817 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Cooler and drier air will move in overnight behind a cold frontal boundary that will have moved into the Lower Great Lakes by daybreak. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s except lower 70s near Lake Michigan. Otrws sfc ridging blds ewd fm the plains overnight as drying overspreads the area. Flat wrly flow aloft in wake of shrt term sys buckles sigly into Sat in response to stg upstream ridge dvlpmnt acrs the wrn US. Beyond that upr pattn looks remarkably quite locally inbtwn persisting ern Canada mean troughing and Rockies dominant upr ridging w/a rtn of dry wx and moderating temps xpcd.
A weak cold front will move southeast into KY on Thursday and then very slowly drop SSE through the state through Thursday night.
They will continue to move south this evening along a cold front. Britt Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue early this evening along and ahead of cold front which is expected to be just southeast of the St. Expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to decrease late evening and early overnight across southeastern sections of the CWA as cold front slowly continues to progress.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating the slow moving cold front finally edging along and east of the DVN CWA, while a ridge complex was occupying much of the plains and MO RVR Valley. With the influx of drier boundary layer air, will side with the cooler side of guidance making for a seasonably cool night with most areas having lows in the low to mid 50s.
653 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Cold front is roughly along the I-55 corridor early this afternoon, with some scattered convection firing nearby from Lincoln to just north of St. Any stronger storms that occur will be during the next 2-3 hours or so ahead of the front, as most of the high resolution guidance largely has any showers/storms out of the area by about 6 pm. Following today's cold frontal passage, westerly flow aloft and drier air will move into central IL for the end of the work week. Expect dry conditions, slightly cooler temperatures with highs around 80, and drier dewpoints mainly mid-upper 50s bringing humidity down to comfortable levels.
High pressure will remain in place through the weekend, resulting in dry and increasingly warm conditions. The large-scale pattern this evening shows high pressure continuing to build into the Great Basin. Some high clouds have developed into northern Utah ahead of a weak trough crossing the PacNW states, otherwise quiet weather is in store for the area tonight. However, winds are expected to increase especially across southwest Wyoming and the higher terrain of northern Utah due to the passage of the aforementioned weak trough to the north.
1219 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 High pressure will slowly move to the east tonight and Thursday. Low pressure will track into Quebec Thursday night bringing an occluded front across our area.
830 PM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 High temperatures will rise throughout the week as high pressure builds aloft.
An area of high pressure at the surface will exit the central plains and move into the Mississippi valley overnight as an upper low crosses the Great Lakes Region. Thursday still looks warmer as a westerly down slope flow improves and a trough of low pressure begins to deepen along the lee of the Rockies.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through the region tonight. This will bring some breezy winds and extensive high cloudiness along with slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. A pronounced ridge of high pressure will begin building over the area this weekend bringing the first heat wave of the season.
However, scattered convection will be on the menu again across the Great Valley again Thursday afternoon with some lifting with weak short wave energy riding northeast out of the Lower Mississippi Valley along with more than sufficient instability due to strong surface heating.
The southwestern CONUS upper low will finally move into central and northern Texas tomorrow, which should cause the front to make slight southward progress and also shift the main focus for shower and thunderstorm development into parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
937 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area during the rest of the week. A slow moving cold front will approach over the weekend.
The upper low moving into N and W Texas will drift towards SE Texas and put the area in a favored location for thunderstorm development. Given the high PW and motion - localized rainfall of 4-8 inches will be a good bet.
Thursday will bring ridging aloft and mostly sunny skies to the area. 850 mb temps will warm through the period resulting in afternoon highs generally in the lower 80s Thursday afternoon. the focus for the weather over the Tri State Region will be on the building H5/H7 ridge over the western half of the country. This ridge is going to set the region up for mainly warm and dry conditions at least thru the upcoming weekend. Models do hint at a few systems riding over/thru the ridge.
648 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Expanded some lower POPs back to the west a bit as the showers rotating around the backside of the upper low have been a bit slower to move out of the area than expected. Eastern ND will begin to clear out after midnight and overnight lows should be a few degrees cooler in the west while clouds result in a late start to radiative cooling across the east.
The ECMWF and GFS still have the upper low over TX closing off aloft by early Thursday morning, which may help weak ridging develop over the mid state and drop precip chances a bit before the afternoon tomorrow.
1020 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure builds into New England through Thursday.
1012 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area during the rest of the week. A slow moving cold front will approach over the weekend.
00Z KBOI sounding showed very dry air in the lower levels. 02Z satellite imagery showed cold front just off the nw coast. Models take the front across our CWA early Thursday followed by breezy, cooler wx later Thursday. Thursday should be about 8 degs cooler than today in the north, but only about 4 degs cooler in the south.
The overall coverage of convection should increase during the day Thursday, as the upper low and trough move into our area from the west. So much of this convection is driven by mesoscale processes ahead of the main upper low that the forecast certainty in just where the convection will develop on Thursday is pretty low. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) An eastern drifting upper low will be centered over our southeastern counties by tomorrow night.
Upper low can be seen on water vapor just south of the AZ/NM border. This risk of storms will continue to be high on Thursday as the upper low moves into Texas and stalls over Central Texas.
Surface trof over Indiana seems to be pushing its storms eastward quickly enough to leave our northern areas with just isolated coverage. Highs will be cooler Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s.
Short term models are indicating that an approaching upper level short wave trough and an 850 mb front sinking south may trigger widely scattered weak convection between the I-44 and U. However, with the low level jet remaining weak do not expect wide spread convection overnight and most locations will remain dry overnight if the storms don't dissipate all together.
1027 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 A deep-layer cyclone analyzed over northern Minnesota as of early afternoon will gradually evolve into an open wave while translating east-northeast, within an increasingly zonal polar branch of westerlies situated across the northern tier of states. Highs on Thursday should be slightly warmer than today; in the lower 80s.
Maliawco The last lingering band of low clouds from the departing low pressure system remained over our central and eastern zones today, but resulted in nothing more than a partly cloudy day under a broad area of weak upper-level ridging.
644 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue early this evening along and ahead of cold front which is expected to be just southeast of the St. Expect chances of showers and thunderstorms to decrease late evening and early overnight across southeastern sections of the CWA as cold front slowly continues to progress.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will result in continued above average inland temperatures while cooler conditions persist near the coast.
Kept some low POPs going in the northeast a bit later tonight as Baudette continues to report some rain on the backside of the low (though the radar is overshooting). Expanded some lower POPs back to the west a bit as the showers rotating around the backside of the upper low have been a bit slower to move out of the area than expected. Eastern ND will begin to clear out after midnight and overnight lows should be a few degrees cooler in the west while clouds result in a late start to radiative cooling across the east.
932 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 With the exception of the TN River valley, the lower atmosphere had stabilized a bit as of midevening, worked over by several hours of multicluster thunderstorms.
/issued 932 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/ With the exception of the TN River valley, the lower atmosphere had stabilized a bit as of midevening, worked over by several hours of multicluster thunderstorms.
901 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will provide fair and warm weather this evening over most of the area.
Weak showers and storms have move off the higher terrain but quickly dissipate. Upper level ridging will be building over the state on Thursday, causing less convective development Thursday afternoon. Temperatures across the region will also be some 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
901 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 While winds had shifted more northwesterly across the forecast area for a while now, it appears the actual cold front still resides in the forecast area. Cold front is roughly along the I-55 corridor early this afternoon, with some scattered convection firing nearby from Lincoln to just north of St. Any stronger storms that occur will be during the next 2-3 hours or so ahead of the front, as most of the high resolution guidance largely has any showers/storms out of the area by about 6 pm. Following today's cold frontal passage, westerly flow aloft and drier air will move into central IL for the end of the work week. Expect dry conditions, slightly cooler temperatures with highs around 80, and drier dewpoints mainly mid-upper 50s bringing humidity down to comfortable levels.
The upper level low looks to park it's self over Texas and will continue the steady pattern of the rains through the rest of the week and into the weekend. This all occurring ahead of eastward tracking low pressure currently over northern old Mexico. Rains taper off during the latter part of the weekend as upper low fills and surface front slips across the region. Appears much of the new week will be dry as ridge builds over the region. A light to occasional moderate onshore flow will continue through the remainder of the week as high pressure ridges across the southeast conus and adjacent gulf waters. A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected as occasional disturbances aloft advance across the area associated with low pressure currently over northern old Mexico.
920 PM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 Onshore flow will weaken as high pressure builds over the area through the end of the week.
Warm and humid air across the region will maintain shower and thunderstorm formation through the week and upcoming weekend as a cold front slowly approaches the coast.
Partly cloudy skies expected with quite a bit of cirrus spilling over upper ridge axis located west of our forecast area. SW winds will increase to near SCEC levels this weekend due to nocturnal surges ahead of approaching cold front to the NW.
1211 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area during the rest of the week. A slow moving cold front will approach over the weekend.
/issued 210 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/ An upper low will continue to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area over the next several days. Surface analysis shows many leftover outflow boundaries from overnight convection and a weak cold front slowly moving south across the area. These boundaries along with large scale lift associated with the upper low will lead to more showers and storms this afternoon. A few storms are already developing across the higher terrain and northern Permian Basin. The upper low moves overhead tomorrow with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
There is also some dissipating cumulus over the ridges. The upper level ridge that brought the dry and warm weather is now east of the area and the flow aloft is southwest to west with a weak long wave trough offshore.
726 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for tonight and Thursday. The forecast for tonight remains on track with gradual pop escalation as the Midwest trough draws closer.
This activity has disrupted the low level flow as well. The SPC meso-analysis web page shows instability axis over the higher terrain in northeast Mexico and satellite imagery shows convection on the increase there as the short wave trough lifts out of Coahuila. Stronger upper level difluence will move into the Brush Country late this evening as the upper jet rounds the base of the upper low sinking southeast into Texas Big Bend tonight. Additional convection will be possible especially over coastal plains Thursday as the upper low approaches. The upper low is expected to move into the Hill Country Thursday night and become quasi-stationary.
00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows a weak trough in the upper level flow over the FL peninsula. This general troughiness will be lifting northeast up the eastern seaboard into Thursday. leaving our region under a very ill-defined upper pattern between the departing energy and renewed troughing digging into the southern Plains/western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface look for a continuation of Atlantic high pressure to ridge back westward over the Florida peninsula through Thursday. and also a bit less upper level support due to the departing upper trough. Atlantic high pressure reaching across the eastern Gulf through the weekend with light east to southeast winds.
Highs will be cooler Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s.
1046 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will provide fair and warm weather this evening over most of the area.
Also continue to see additional activity across the higher terrain with more coming upstream off of the Cumberland Plateau. A weak cold front will move southeast into KY on Thursday and then very slowly drop SSE through the state through Thursday night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a mature cyclone across northern MN, with an expansive cumulus field covering the entire Upper Midwest. High pressure will build in on Thursday leading to mostly sunny skies once again and light winds. Warm air advection will begin to develop across the MN/Dakota border, so should see afternoon highs in the lower 80s along the Upper Minnesota River Valley.
However, with the low level jet remaining weak do not expect wide spread convection overnight and most locations will remain dry overnight if the storms don't dissipate all together.
617 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 A deep-layer cyclone analyzed over northern Minnesota as of early afternoon will gradually evolve into an open wave while translating east-northeast, within an increasingly zonal polar branch of westerlies situated across the northern tier of states. Highs on Thursday should be slightly warmer than today; in the lower 80s.
Freezing level tonight at 14,400 feet, with -20C at 25,200 feet and wet bulb zero at 12,500 feet.
1040 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2016 Current satellite indicates drier air moving into the region as high pressure builds into the desert southwest. High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest late this week and through the weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region.
The chance for additional scattered convection increases a little more overnight as warm air above the surface is lifted ahead of an upper level low over West Texas.
We're continuing to watch an upper low track into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Fairly widespread strato-cu has developed, and despite temperatures approaching 70 degrees, a brisk northwest wind is making this afternoon feel much cooler than it is. Thursday: A good deal of scattered mid-lvl cloud cover may temper the heating to some degree, but we'll be watching a minor warm front try to lift northward through the day. Warm front will lift north through the area Thursday night creating the chance for elevated thunderstorms. Lifting from near 850 mb near the top of the low level jet maximizes CAPE, but effective shear through the mid-levels of the atmosphere is limited and should keep storms below severe limits.
High pressure passes through the area overnight allowing lower dew points in the 50s across northeast KS.
516 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2016 Current satellite indicates drier air moving into the region as high pressure builds into the desert southwest. High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest late this week and through the weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region.
Area temperatures ranged from the mid 70s under ongoing shower activity, to the lower 90s in the sunnier spots.
The situation will become more complicated later tonight, with the short range models bringing possible strong convection into the lower valley from the west after midnight through morning's light.
510 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over northern Minnesota, with flat ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure resides across the western Dakotas. Upper ridge flattens a bit as a clipper system slides through Montana and North Dakota late in the day. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with dew points on the plains in the 40s to lower 50s.
In northern AR, a cold front will slowly sag south and develop isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern Taf sites. Late tonight, winds will shift to the NW to N over northern AR with the cold front.
Our general overall pattern the next couple of days is that of a flat ridge/westerly flow. Convection initiates along a cold front in the early afternoon and slides east into the evening. However, some pockets of heavy rain are more likely than hail since freezing levels are higher than we have seen this season.
849 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for tonight and Thursday. The forecast for tonight remains on track with gradual pop escalation as the Midwest trough draws closer.
Low level ridge axis draped across central Florida will produce good boating conditions with seas 2-3 ft mainly due to swell.
Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms. Expect activity to remain fairly tied to the higher elevations through this evening. Weak pseudo warm front and weak upper level disturbance lift north across the forecast area tonight. Attention then turns to cold front approaching from the west Thursday. Models showing the cold front making it into western CWA by Thursday afternoon. Remnants of cold front linger over the region leaving moisture and a little instability SE of the Ohio River. A sharp upper level trough moves in over the weekend. This will eventually bring both a warm and cold front through the region.
1036 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over northern Minnesota, with flat ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure resides across the western Dakotas. Upper ridge flattens a bit as a clipper system slides through Montana and North Dakota late in the day. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with dew points on the plains in the 40s to lower 50s.
Otherwise, the cold front over southern MO will slowly sag southeast tonight and into Thursday, and becoming the focus of convection. In northern AR, a cold front will slowly sag south and develop isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern Taf sites. Late tonight, winds will shift to the NW to N over northern AR with the cold front.
913 PM MST WED JUN 1 2016 A high pressure system is forecast to build over the region and provide a strong warming trend the remainder of the week and weekend.
802 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will provide fair and warm weather this evening over most of the area.
This all occurring ahead of eastward tracking low pressure currently over northern old Mexico. Rains taper off during the latter part of the weekend as upper low fills and surface front slips across the region. Appears much of the new week will be dry as ridge builds over the region. A light to occasional moderate onshore flow will continue through the remainder of the week as high pressure ridges across the southeast conus and adjacent gulf waters. A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected as occasional disturbances aloft advance across the area associated with low pressure currently over northern old Mexico.
1134 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Big picture across the nation, looking at water vapor imagery, shows a compact trough circulation moving east along the Canadian border towards the Great Lakes with another weaker trough circulation noted about across the eastern Pacific, about to make landfall across the Pacific Northwest.