Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The forecast features increasing chances for rain mainly tonight through Saturday as the upper level ridge axis currently over the MS Valley yields to the fast-moving trough currently over the western U. Winds will decrease and shift to west/northwest when a cold front arrives Saturday afternoon/evening. Saturday's cold front will usher in a period of much colder weather.
542 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 /12Z TAFS/ IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue as a warm front develops and moves north through the TAF period. /issued 342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ (Today and tonight) Will let the winter weather advisory in effect until 6 AM for portions of the Big Country expire, as temperatures rise above freezing.
High pressure builds Friday leading to dry and seasonable weather.
458 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 Quite a change from 24 hours ago, with northeasterly winds ushering cooler air into the region, and clearing out the fog resulting in decent vsbys. Temperatures are running about 10 degrees cooler than this time last night, with readings ranging from the lower 50s acrs cntl LA to around 60 acrs SW LA and SE TX. Aloft, the pattern continues to amplify as a sharp trough crosses the intermountain west. Considerable moisture continues to stream acrs the southern plains on southwesterly flow in advance of the trough.
342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 (Today and tonight) Will let the winter weather advisory in effect until 6 AM for portions of the Big Country expire, as temperatures rise above freezing.
Surface temperatures have gradually warmed to at or just above freezing in northwestern Osage county, although of more concern is the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. As such, some light freezing rain will be possible into the morning hours, especially in the higher terrain of Carroll and Madison counties. Will go with a winter weather advisory for light freezing rain through late morning, and this may need to be extended if it becomes apparent that the cold air will remain wedged in longer than initially anticipated. A rumble of thunder isn't completely out of the question this evening as the cold front approaches, with rain shifting east of the area by late Friday night.
Temperatures south of I-20 are above freezing and there is not threat for wintry precipitation there. Temps north of I-20 are closer to freezing, especially in our northern tier of counties from Seminole to Snyder; however, there is virtually no temp/dewpoint depression so there is no room for temps to go any lower. Of course, ice accumulation is possible anywhere temps are below freezing but conditions are not favorable for anything more than a very light glaze on exposed surfaces (the ground is too warm for accumulation) so will let the WSW and SPS expire as scheduled. At that time an upper trough will drop down into the central Rockies potentially bringing our next chance for precipitation.
gov/bis Latest water vapor shows a negatively tilted trough ejecting northeast from the Great Basin. The passage of a cold front in the west early this afternoon places them in cold air advection/strong winds. Strong pressure rises and cold air advection will lead to strong northwest winds coming in behind the cold front per RAP13 BUFKIT sounding. A wind advisory was issued for surrounding tier of counties around the high wind warning. Winds will remain strong tonight with snow continuing but becoming less intense over the James River Valley as the upper low and trough shift east.
905 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 A frontal boundary is draped across the south/central peninsula and will be settling south through the day as high pressure builds into the north. The high pressure will then shift east to over the Atlantic through the weekend, and continue to ridge back across the area.
322 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 The forecast features increasing chances for rain mainly tonight through Saturday as the upper level ridge axis currently over the MS Valley yields to the fast-moving trough currently over the western U. Winds will decrease and shift to west/northwest when a cold front arrives Saturday afternoon/evening. Saturday's cold front will usher in a period of much colder weather.
Satellite imagery shows a maturing extratropical cyclone off the coast of the PacNW.
The approach and passage of a Saturday afternoon cold front will end this recent fog event. Showers with an isolated storm will increase in probability and coverage ahead and along of this latest cold front.
/issued 743 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ Early this morning, water vapor loop showed mid-upper trough moving east toward the central Rockies, with extensive northward movement of moisture. Later today as this plume of deep anomalous moisture shifts east with the progression of the trough, the rain covered is expected to decrease. We'll keep the Winter Weather Advisory for areas that are still at or below freezing. But since these areas are only a few degrees below freezing and winds are fairly light, additional ice accretion should be minimal. Warm Advection continues to push the freezing line west (i. /issued 253 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ After a cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, the temperatures and dew points will lower to more typical values for the next several days.
With the strong warm air advection, along with LLM, there could be a brief period of freezing drizzle and sleet before transitioning over to all snow.
330 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2020 Gusty winds today with the passage of a sharp cold front. High pressure builds in through the weekend.
337 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 Mid level ridge will shift east today putting the region back into a southwest flow regime ahead of a wave moving across the High Plains. However, light warm advection showers aloft this afternoon and tonight will lead to this dense surface airmass becoming increasingly shallow with precipitation beginning to make it to the ground by late Friday night in advance of approaching mid level wave and attendant cold front. /GG/ Rain will overspread the region on Saturday as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will sweep through the region as the day continues, with cooler conditions arriving in its wake. Lows will fall into the 30s at most sites on Saturday night, getting progressively cooler each following night.
An elevated warm front is producing some overrunning across the Mid-South and some patchy light precipitation has developed across parts of eastern AR into north MS. Temps across parts of NE AR, the MO bootheel and NW TN are at the freezing mark so there is some concern for some light freezing rain in those areas. No significant travel impacts are expected though a few slick spots on elevated surfaces like bridges is not out of the question. Any freezing rain threat will end by mid morning. Precip associated with the elevated warm front will lift north of the area by noon. Temperatures will be a little warmer today with lighter winds. May be able to squeak out a dry evening across much of the Mid-South before rain chances increase as a cold front moves into the region.
318 AM PST Fri Jan 17 2020 Quieter weather will be in store over the weekend as high pressure settles across the region. Breezy Sierra ridgetop winds will continue through tonight before lightening by Saturday.
/GG/ Mid level ridge will shift east today putting the region back into a southwest flow regime ahead of a wave moving across the High Plains. However, light warm advection showers aloft this afternoon and tonight will lead to this dense surface airmass becoming increasingly shallow with precipitation beginning to make it to the ground by late Friday night in advance of approaching mid level wave and attendant cold front. /GG/ Rain will overspread the region on Saturday as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will sweep through the region as the day continues, with cooler conditions arriving in its wake. Lows will fall into the 30s at most sites on Saturday night, getting progressively cooler each following night.
The snow will then change over to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow later tonight, eventually becoming all rain on Saturday.
Drier air filtering in nicely behind the front, dew points in the mid 50s from Orlando north, and in the low 60s from Melbourne south. Temperatures have maxed out at the expected daily highs already, so should hold steady in the low 70s everywhere for the rest of today, except along the Treasure Coast where temps stay in the mid 70s.
High pressure takes control bringing dry and quiet weather for the weekend, with north breezes lingering down the Colorado River Valley.
Freezing rain in western Oklahoma is expected to turn to rain around mid-morning as temperatures rise slowly above freezing. /issued 253 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ After a cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, the temperatures and dew points will lower to more typical values for the next several days.
As we work into the evening hours, the next cold front will begin to work toward the area. While the front is expected to remain west of the area until Saturday, we could begin to see rainfall associated with a pre-frontal trough across the west. A cold front will push southeastward through Central AL on Saturday.
Strong trough was located west of the 4 corners. Most of the higher terrain were in the 20s. This morning, some freezing and frozen precip will be possible over the far eastern plains, but it should end prior to sunrise. Unsettled weather is expected as several weak to modest troughs will be moving through the western 1/2 of the CONUS in the NW flow pattern aloft.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Moderate east to northeast breezes are occurring in the Hawk Channel with fresh breezes farther south across the Straits and gentle breezes over the cooler Gulf waters.
Temperatures will also be warming, with highs in the 70s for the lower deserts and generally 60s south and east of Tucson.
Then, a cold front will move across the area as the ongoing cloud cover clears. Winds will be coming from the north at around 10 to 20 MPH as this cold front passes through.
1242 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 The frontal boundary has pushed south of the area this afternoon, with high pressure to the north building down the state.
/issued 542 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue as a warm front develops and moves north through the TAF period. /issued 342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ (Today and tonight) Will let the winter weather advisory in effect until 6 AM for portions of the Big Country expire, as temperatures rise above freezing.
5-10 degrees colder today in all areas behind last night's cold front.
250 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 Upper level ridging has sustained a full-court press against any rain chances today across the Mid State. At this hour, temperatures range widely from the 30s across the north to the low 50s in the south. Cloud cover has put the kibosh on getting any warmer for the remainder of the afternoon. However, southerly flow will increase overnight and bring in relatively mild air ahead of Saturday's cold front. As a trough digs in across the Midwest, ridging over the OH/TN Valleys will quickly move east. A cold front, with rain showers leading the way, will move in our direction.
Expect winds to diminish this evening with high pressure building into the region. Expect some light snow for portions of the upper snake highlands and central mountains on Saturday as some moisture moves over the top of the ridge.
255 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 The prominent dry slot associated with the upper trough is entering western Kansas this afternoon. There is a chance for a few showers to linger in the late afternoon, otherwise the low stratus will settle in for the evening. As the trough axis and associated cold front passes through, winds shift to the northwest, becoming strong at 15 to 25 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph through sunrise. Dominant precip type for the area is rain ahead of the front with perhaps light snow or freezing rain in far northeast Kansas.
An upper ridge axis is moving off to the east this afternoon as low pressure gets better organized over the High Plains. Strengthening SW flow will quickly push the boundary layer well above freezing between 00-06z Sat. Still, the magnitude of the low level wind fields is concerning. By Saturday evening the cold front will have passed through most of our CWA and into eastern KY. Cold air behind the front will begin to be felt as surface temps begin to plummet to the high teens across southern Indiana and into the low to mid 20s across central KY. Canadian high pressure moves in from the NW bringing cold, dry air resulting in clearing skies by mid morning.
359 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 High pressure will give way to a deepening area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes Saturday, then north of Pennsylvania Saturday night.
A cold front early Saturday will keep temperatures close to seasonal averages for Saturday afternoon.
Gusty southwest winds will gradually weaken this evening and then they will become west and northwest behind a Pacific cold front overnight.
341 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 High pressure will give way to a deepening area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes Saturday, then north of Pennsylvania Saturday night.
dry slot working into southern/western Iowa as a couple locations reporting freezing rain. There will be a very tight pressure gradient on the backside of this low so look for winds to increase substantially between 10Z and 12Z west and across the rest of the forecast area through mid morning with strongest winds occurring through about the noon hour then gradually diminishing.
A wintry mix of precipitation can be expected with Saturday low pressure.
/issued 202 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ Deep moist isentropic ascent within warm conveyor belt of approaching trough will continue to shift east, along with more substantial radar echos and steady rainfall. Improving conditions are expected once the mid-upper trough axis passes later this evening, and subsidence increases. A cold front will move through tonight increasing cold/dry advection, switching winds to northwesterly and increasing them.
/CME/ Prior discussion below: Rain will overspread the region on Saturday as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will sweep through the region as the day continues, with cooler conditions arriving in its wake. Lows will fall into the 30s at most sites on Saturday night, getting progressively cooler each following night.
1023 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Currently - Cold front is currently analyzed over South Flroida and pushing south. The cold front will continue to push south and will move into our area by this afternoon.
High pressure will build in over the state today leading to dry and seasonable weather.
130 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 An upper trough swinging across the Rockies today will pass onto the plains tonight. As the trough moves off to the east high pressure will build across NM and TX from the west.
This system will be a warm front that will begin to move into the region late today, overnight and Saturday. The warm front will begin to bring some warmer air aloft into the region overnight and Saturday which will complicate the precipitation type across the forecast area with a mix of rain and snow. Main concern will be freezing rain potential in areas where the cold pool in the low lying elevations remains in place.
1017 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2020 Gusty winds today with the passage of a sharp cold front. High pressure builds in through the weekend. The surface cold front has pushed into Millard County this morning and has nearly caught up to the upper level baroclinic zone. The backside of the upper level trough is sliding to the east as the jet streak pushes into northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. The sharp gradient of rising heights will fill in behind the trough this afternoon and usher in higher pressure.
Precip is mainly anticipated after 09-10z and ending as the cold front sweeps through the region from NW to SE. The cold front and associated wind shift look to reach GLH around 18z Sat. /CME/ Prior discussion below: Rain will overspread the region on Saturday as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will sweep through the region as the day continues, with cooler conditions arriving in its wake. Lows will fall into the 30s at most sites on Saturday night, getting progressively cooler each following night.
Temperatures have begun to rise above freezing across portions of northwest Arkansas this morning with the icing threat winding down. Areas of moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue across eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of cold front.
One possible concern for the afternoon forecast will be the potential for light freezing rain and icing in parts of SW VA. The lower levels will remain rather dry as seen in forecast soundings for the past several model runs. Downslope winds from the easterly winds won't help the low levels to moisten up, either.
Saturday will see high pressure building from eastern Colorado onto western Kansas although gusty winds could be possible in some of the eastern counties. For the middle of the week, both the EC and the GFS show a storm/closed lows over the central Plains, the EC in the northern Plains and the GFS a storm right over the DDC forecast area. Fairly different story however is shown by the Ensemble Standardized Anomaly which suggest more of a broad open trough lacking any kind of height gradient.
This will bring a decrease in the pressure gradient with a decrease in wind speeds and warmer temperatures. Winds will become southeast to south with Saturday afternoon temperatures reaching the low/mid 70s.
For the weekend, expect cold/dry and seasonal conditions, as the mid level flow shifts to the NW, with a Canadian area of high pressure moving across the area.
VFR will continue through the taf period as high pressure extends into the area from the north. Tonight, an approaching cold front will cause winds to become S and strengthen with gusts over 25KT.
307 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 The rest of today is expected to remain dry with high pressure at the surface.
One possible concern for the afternoon forecast will be the potential for light freezing rain and icing in parts of SW VA.
Strong winds should subside by late morning as the low and mid level gradients relax. Temperatures will be colder in the wake of the passing cold front.
Expect a broken band of showers (and possibly an embedded tstm closer to the coast) to develop ahead of a prefrontal trof as it pushes into the region early Sat morning.
802 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Pleasant Friday evening under partly cloudy skies underway as stout ridging surface and aloft builds over the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Latest surface analysis depicts frontal boundary that pushed south across the peninsula over the past 24 hours near the southern tip of the state, with increased easterly flow over Central and Southwest Florida courtesy of the surface ridging building in its wake.
Increasing clouds this afternoon will result light snow or flurries over the higher terrain after dusk across central Idaho, and later, northwest Montana. A second upper level wave will move through the flow on Saturday afternoon as the high pressure ridge begins to amplify across the western United States. However, all the data still points to minor snow accumulations, generally on the order of an inch of less across the lower elevations and 2 to 6 inches over the higher terrain (including Lookout and Lolo Passes).
High pressure building over the west coast will lead to dry and seasonable weather.
A cold front will move through Saturday morning shifting winds back to northerly. /issued 202 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ Deep moist isentropic ascent within warm conveyor belt of approaching trough will continue to shift east, along with more substantial radar echos and steady rainfall. Improving conditions are expected once the mid-upper trough axis passes later this evening, and subsidence increases. A cold front will move through tonight increasing cold/dry advection, switching winds to northwesterly and increasing them.
Upper level ridging has sustained a full-court press against any rain chances today across the Mid State. At this hour, temperatures range widely from the 30s across the north to the low 50s in the south. Cloud cover has put the kibosh on getting any warmer for the remainder of the afternoon. However, southerly flow will increase overnight and bring in relatively mild air ahead of Saturday's cold front. As a trough digs in across the Midwest, ridging over the OH/TN Valleys will quickly move east. A cold front, with rain showers leading the way, will move in our direction.
233 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly build over the region over the next few days. Expect another cold night tonight, especially over North Central MT and in the higher valleys of Southwest MT.
333 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 Temperatures have warmed above freezing in all areas this afternoon and the slow upward trend will continue through the early part of tonight. Cold front will eventually move in late tonight with drier and cooler air, with temperatures falling in most areas after peaking sometime during the night. Post-frontal airmass is not especially cold and with expected full sun and even a slight downslope component to the sfc winds, temps will likely be a bit warmer than NBM guidance.
314 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2020 Breezy winds will continue west of the edge of the low level cloud deck this afternoon. The cloud deck has hovered over the eastern half of the CWA much longer today than expected causing a large temperature difference across the area ranging from the lower 30s to 60s. A 500 mb trough is currently crossing the CWA from the west. As the cold front moves through, strong northwesterly winds will move into the area continuing overnight. At this time, have not issued a High Wind Warning as not confident of low level inversion allowing the highest winds to mix down. Expecting the highest winds in the 03-06Z time frame tonight. There are some rain showers passing through the area this afternoon associated with the cold front.
Rain chances will continue through the afternoon and into the early evening hours of Saturday as a cold front makes its way southward across the region. High temperatures on Saturday will likely reach the mid to upper 70s across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend, as the drier and cooler airmass is not expected to reach these areas until late Saturday afternoon/early evening. Much cooler and breezier conditions are expected Saturday night in response to the frontal boundary, with temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s.
Cooler air along Hood Canal and in Whatcom county should allow snow to fall for awhile before turning to rain overnight.
The air mass is very dry below 700mb due to a strong low level ridge over the Southeast States. A cold front will push southeastward through Central AL on Saturday.
Widespread rain and a few isolated storms expected areawide tonight as a cold front moves across the state.
219 PM PST Fri Jan 17 2020 Quiet weather can be expected over the weekend as high pressure settles over northeast California and western Nevada.
416 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Mid and upper level trough just off the Eastern Seaboard continues to dig and deepen this afternoon. Upstream a large upper level ridge extends from Cuba well into Manitoba and is shifting eastward behind the trough. Further upstream the next trough is traversing across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a strong and potent cold front is surging south across South Florida and beginning to move across the Upper Keys.
Otherwise, a cold front will move through Saturday morning, shifting winds to the NE for the remainder of the afternoon. /issued 130 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/ An upper trough swinging across the Rockies today will pass onto the plains tonight. As the trough moves off to the east high pressure will build across NM and TX from the west.