Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expecting the dominance of the mid/upper level ridge and less coverage of SHRA/TSRA Tuesday, will only place VCSH after 18Z in BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA terminals. Rain chances will be on the decrease for the remainder of the week, as an upper level ridge, that will become centered over the Southern Plains, develops and strengthens. This ridge will become the dominant weather player for the forecast area, bringing an increase in subsidence, creating capping in the atmosphere, and thus decreasing convective activity to isolated at best.
Meanwhile, ridging is in place over the Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing is in place with a weak front extending across northern MO into southern Nebraska. The main theme for the next few days will be for the upper ridge to continue to build and expand over the Plains through Fri. Weak low pressure was centered near Hays at 1730Z. Mainly a wind forecast over the next 24 hours as a dome of upper level high pressure suppresses storm development across the area.
Mostly VFR conditions to carry thru for remainder of fcst cycle with stg upper lvl ridge effects. The water vapor imagery reveals that the upper ridge center has begun to drift back W from Nrn MS. The slow wwd retreat of the ridge center will result in a deep Serly flow continuing through the afternoon over the region.
243 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. High pressure should bring dry and warm weather through much of the rest of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening with the approach of a cold front, though with upper support lacking and warming mid levels should help to limit coverage. Any showers/storms should diminish overnight as the cold front completes it's passage.
326 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Upper level trough was swinging across the area with the stronger forcing beginning to shift off to our east. Subsidence in the wake of the trough has already ended the snow in our western counties, and was also clearing out the skies. Today: Upper level trough/forcing will continue to shift eastward allowing for any lingering light snow or flurries to end early this morning. In addition, brisk northwest winds will also gradually diminish this afternoon, as high pressure pushes into MO. Tonight: High pressure ridge moves east returning warm air advection mid/high level clouds, so skies will become mostly cloudy again. Lows will be in the lower to mid 20s, and in many locations this will occur this evening.
1200 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Satellite and upper air data showing the main low/trough axis which brought accumulating snowfall to the CWA continuing to slide east across the Plains this afternoon. At the surface, as expected, gusty north-northwest winds have been in place behind the cold front, with CAA and a tightened pressure gradient. Southerly winds return on the backside of the high, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10 MPH.
A cold front is currently advancing rapidly southeast through Acadiana. Scattered to broken cu within VFR can be expected along and ahead of a cold front advancing across the forecast area this evening. With any significant moisture confined to only the lower levels, the boundary will come through dry. /issued 430 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ Temps today climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region ahead of a dry cold front that is moving through the lakes region of southeast Texas attm. Aftn temps tmrw will be in the low to mid 60s or about a 20 degree drop from today which should put us near our 30 year climo range.
305 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 A vigorous mid-level trough centered over the MS Valley early this morning will advance east today in response to the progression of an upstream system from central Canada into the north-central CONUS. We will continue to see further modification of the low-level air mass with highs in the mid 30s north to mid to upper 40s south.
246 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Turning colder in the wake of the cold front. Cold front is knocking on the doorstep of the far western edge of the CWA. For the climate summary upcoming today, max temperatures have likely already been hit at midnight, and with the rain and subsequent cold front, non diurnal temperature curve was necessary for the daytime period. Snowfall amounts are generally on the superficial side and relegated to the ridges. Gusty winds expected in the wake of the cold front. High pressure builds over the area on Sunday and although we remain dry it will be cool relatively speaking.
1140 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 The cold front is through the area at this time and into eastern Illinois. It will feel pretty cold though since we haven't seen lows in the 20s to low 30s in more than a week! Clouds will clear out on Saturday with high pressure building overhead. Seasonal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid 40s along and south of the I-70 corridor cooling to the mid and upper 30s further north.
1155 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 At H5 closed low moving into Pacific Northwest. dirty ridge into northern Rockies and closed low that brought snow to western Nebraska over Omaha with snow finished over western Nebraska. An upper trough moves across the northern plains Saturday night. Temperatures will rise into the 30s Sunday behind the trough as upper ridge and Pacific air move across western Nebraska. Upper ridge sharpens ahead of deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest.
The first batch associated with the pre frontal trough is moving through NW AL while the secondary area, associated with the front itself, continues to drift through central MS. With the line(s) of storms expected to shift out of the area after midnight, cooler air will begin to usher in with high pressure over the area tomorrow. High pressure will build across the area on Saturday, keeping skies clear. Winds will shift to the south on Sunday as the high moves east of the area.
Fast moving trough dropping through the Pac NW this morning continues southward today. This is ahead of a second cold upper level trough tracking from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pac NW for Sunday. Showers increase in coverage Sunday afternoon with increased instability ahead of the low center.
Upstream we have a SW-NE oriented trof axis sliding southeast toward our CWA. So the best chance of snow showers is across the high country and areas less affected by downslope, which means areas east of Billings. By evening we should see some stabilization thanks to some subsistence behind the trof axis. For Sunday, another strong trof drops over the Pacific NW and pushes moisture into western Montana. The trof begins to track into southern Idaho by Sunday night which may translate into enough forcing into our area to get some precipitation out into the plains.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight and north-northeast winds will be gusty along the coast into most of Saturday morning over the coastal plains. Northeast winds Saturday morning will veer to easterly by the afternoon and weaken as the high pressure ridge moves to the east. Winds have been slow to pick up over the Gulf waters this evening but an increase in high pressure was slowly moving into the coastal waters at this time. Winds will quickly pick up over the next 2-3 hours over the Gulf waters as high pressure builds in.
335 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Surface ridging sprawling the plains will keep temperatures on the cool side of average again today. Even with the return of southerly winds and full insolation temperatures will only peak in the lower to middle 50s.
Strong W-NW winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph will continue much of the day before tapering off around sunset as a high pressure ridge finally nudges the stiff pressure gradient eastward. The next low pressure system moving into the upper Midwest will already start to increase southerly wind by early Sunday morning.
Only real concerns aviation wise will be low cigs and maybe light BR ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front is already on the doorsteps of MCB and BTR and likely through both sites at or minutes after 06z.
High pressure tonight will give way to a weak weather system which is expected to cross the area from north to south Saturday. A longwave trough encompasses much of the central and western CONUS this evening. As the upstream wave continues south along the coast, the positively tilted mid level trough axis is forecast to dig across the area during the day Saturday bringing an increase in showers Saturday afternoon across the north, then across southern Utah Saturday evening.
958 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 The recent snowfall will provide plentiful moisture and with very cold temperatures tonight, freezing fog will develop across the North Platte River Valley. Freezing fog has already begun to develop at Alliance bringing visibility down to 1/2 mile. Dry but still chilly Sunday with most locations not going above freezing except for maybe the southern Nebraska Panhandle for afternoon highs.
The sharp mid level trough and circulation was spinning over southern Wisconsin early this morning and will lift ENE of the area by around 12z. Temps should begin to rise a bit after midnight as the ridge slides to the east and we get into a weak southerly return flow with the increasing clouds.
A cold front is currently situated just west and nearly parallel to the Mississippi River. Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region on Saturday with temperatures remaining only in the upper 40s and lower 50s during the day. Guidance continues to trend cooler with low temperatures, and most places will drop below the freezing mark for the first time in over a week. A warming trend will begin again on Sunday as high pressure slides eastward, and winds turn around to the south.
1008 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 Upper low has moved over western IA, and weak ridging has developed over then northern Rockies. Another upper low is moving into the Pacific Northwest.
356 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure continues to drift south today, with return flow developing across the CWA. The rest of the forecast appears dry with a low amplitude ridge building in from the northwest.
Surge of cooler air moving through now in the wake of the front with gusty winds accompanying the surge. /ISSUED 906 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ With the cold front currently moving off the coast, no issues are expected for SE TX the rest of the night. The cold front that has been pushing through SE TX should clear the coastline in the next hour or so, with a wind shift out of the NW.
1020 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 Snow showers were increasing across most of the higher trrn at 2 pm. Stronger gusts will occur in the higher elevations. The remainder of the region should remain dry, although snow showers will be possible across all of the remainder of the higher terrain.
A few bands of clouds west of DVL then more clouds under upper level trough over Saskatchewan and eastern Montana. Short wave trough will across the area Sat night/Sun morning and produce light snow mainly in the southern Red River Valley. Flat upper level ridge will move over the area Sun night and another trough will move across southern Canada Mon. Cooler air will move in to the area Mon. Another trough moves through Tue night/Wed morning with some light snow. As upper trough moves through during the day Saturday into Saturday night do expect a good deal of cloudiness along with areas of light snow. Clouds likely in the high end MVFR to VFR range.
243 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 High pressure continues to build across the region with north winds averaging around 5 to 10 mph at this time.
1144 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 For the 25/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions to prevail with clear skies behind a departing cold front. /issued 925 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ Cold front has now cleared our extreme southeast zones but not before isolated showers and thunderstorms developed along the boundary from Monroe south and west to near Alexandria earlier.
The low pressure system which pushed the this front through may allow for lingering light showers across the northwestern Panhandles. After today, westerly flow will be in place, which will help induce lee side trough across eastern New Mexico and aid in bringing gusty southwest winds across the western half of the Panhandles. Compressional warming as a result of the lee trough will help bring temperature recovery back into the upper 40s and lower 50s areawide on Saturday, and up to the 50s and lower 60s on Sunday.
145 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 After record breaking temperatures yesterday, today will see the much cooler air working into the Quad State, with highs topping out some 30 degrees colder. Everyone should be falling to or below freezing by late this evening, so a good 6 or 7 hours of sub freezing temperatures can be expected tonight. Surface dew points in the teens will help relative humidity values plummet through the 30s percentile, despite the cooler temperatures this afternoon. As the High shifts east Sunday, return flow southerlies regenerate a warm air advection pattern that results in returning rain chances by the afternoon.
High pressure at the surface was shifting into the southern Plains. This high track will allow cold air advection to continue through today, limiting afternoon temperatures in the 40s. With the lower trop very dry Sunday morning, we think that if precip does occur, it will hold off until mid day.
222 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 After record breaking temperatures yesterday, today will see the much cooler air working into the Quad State, with highs topping out some 30 degrees colder. Everyone should be falling to or below freezing by late this evening, so a good 6 or 7 hours of sub freezing temperatures can be expected tonight. Surface dew points in the teens will help relative humidity values plummet through the 30s percentile, despite the cooler temperatures this afternoon. As the High shifts east Sunday, return flow southerlies regenerate a warm air advection pattern that results in returning rain chances by the afternoon.
1220 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds this morning. Showers and a some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front across the region later tonight and early Saturday. Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night, invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday. Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the surface. Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over the northeast U.
120 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight. The cold front will push through the area on Saturday with cool and dry high pressure building across the area Sunday.
A large upper low near Bermuda, is sliding northeast and away from the eastern United States. The next upper low is moving through the Great Lakes and has a trough bending south to the northern Gulf of Mexico.
IFR to LIFR cigs and patchy MVFR to IFR visibility reductions due to fog will continue to impact the region for the next few hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Offshore flow will strengthen over the marine area late tonight and early Saturday morning following the passage of a cold front. We expect patchy fog to continue to develop around the region prior to the arrival of the cold front late tonight. 00Z, but expect cigs and visibility to gradually reduce to MVFR to IFR levels this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
406 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front is quickly moving into the eastern Tennessee early this morning, bringing with it a broken line of strong to severe storms. Thereafter, winds will shift to the WNW and NW and drier/cooler air will quickly advection into the region. the high temperature may well occur in the morning, before northerly winds gradually stabilize/decrease them by later in the afternoon. Winds will be quite breezy in the afternoon, helping to reinforce this cooler air mass. Overnight, a clear and calmer night will make for good radiational cooler in the evening.
The cold front has pushed out of the state, and developed convection over western MS an parts east. A cold front is developing elevated winds from the northwest and winds will be 10 to 20 mph this evening as it moves through the state, lowering to 5 to 15 mph overnight. (59) A cold front will gradually move through AR this evening, and develop isolated showers. As the high moves into the southern Appalachians on Sunday, winds will shift to the south bringing a return of moisture into the region. With the south winds, temperatures will be a little warmer with highs from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
1110 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 In the wake of the cold front that passed through the region this morning, breezy winds were bringing cooler temperatures into the Ozarks. Temperatures overnight will be cooler than the past week as well with overnight lows dropping into the middle 20s under cloudy skies. Despite the sun, the cold Canadian airmass that will slide over the area will keep temperatures more seasonable with highs in the lower 40s.
354 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Early the morning still a lingering isolated strong to severe storm possible along leading edge of cold front making its way into NW GA. Tonight should see a long awaited return to what will feel like actual winter as many locations in north GA should dip into the low 30s with both the radiational and advective cooling components at play. Sunday will be less windy with ridge centered close to the CWA.
With the surface pressure gradient looking less tight and the low level lapse rates not as steep tonight, lowered the sustained wind speeds into the 15 to 25 mph range and wind gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range. On Saturday night and Sunday, a weak short wave trough will move quickly through the region.
100 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds this morning. Showers and a some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front across the region later tonight and early Saturday. Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night, invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday. Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the surface. Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over the northeast U.
Temperatures initially will support light snow, mainly south of I-70, but temperatures will warm above freezing by midday, changing any snow to rain.
On Sunday, a low pressure system will move down the coast bringing a chance for lowland snow on higher terrain north and east of Seattle.
326 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Dry northwesterly to westerly upper flow today and tonight with short wave trough pushing across the Panhandles Sunday.
A cold front will push through the area this afternoon with gusty west winds. A cool and dry pressure ridge will build over the area Sunday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 57 39 57 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 27 53 34 59 / 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 49 31 58 / 10 0 0 20 TN.
Already starting to see the drier and cooler air filter into our northwest counties.
433 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds this morning. Convective activity along a crossing cold front has largely diminished early this morning evolving to a solid line of light to moderate rain along and behind the front which is currently oriented along a line running roughly from Franklin to Wheeling. Scattered light showers will be possible at times over the course of the day as the upper level trough swings through. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts. Temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values and cloud coverage will diminish as high pressure continues to build and lower levels dry out.
Offshore flow will strengthen over the marine area late tonight and early Saturday morning following the passage of a cold front. We expect patchy fog to continue to develop around the region prior to the arrival of the cold front late tonight. 00Z, but expect cigs and visibility to gradually reduce to MVFR to IFR levels this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side today, generally at or below freezing most areas, especially those seeing fresh snowcover.
235 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Heights starting to fall this morning ahead of a large upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes. A cold front will move through the area today. A much cooler night than recent past (though closer to normal) is expected tonight behind the front as morning lows will be in the 40s. Sunday will be a beautiful day as high pressure builds across the Southeast.
346 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Early this morning the region was under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough continued to shift eastward into the Great Lakes region. While afternoon temperatures are expected to remain cooler than the seasonal normals, the afternoon wind shift to the south will help to at least boost highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
An upper lower level low are currently centered around north-central Texas. Model consensus is that the highest pops will once again mainly be west of a MCB to MSY line. Thus have the highest rain chances there and flash flood watch in effect for that portion of the forecast area. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will pass across the region from Friday night through Saturday night as impulses continue to rotate around the upper low as it moves southeast towards the Texas coast. An upper level trough dipping south across the upper Mississippi Valley today will continue southeast across the mid Mississippi Valley Saturday.
With a bit more influence from the upper ridge, rain chances will be a bit lower today versus yesterday.
Forecast on track for less cloud cover and warmer temps for tomorrow as high pressure ridge slowly builds eastward across MT. Low amplitude upper level trough with axis from BC southeast through Central MT this afternoon will shift east tonight, followed by gradual amplification of an upper level ridge over the interior Western US into the upcoming weekend. A few lingering showers/isolated weak thunderstorms from this afternoon and early this evening will dissipate quickly later this evening as drier/more stable air moves in from the west behind the trough axis. A strengthening upper level ridge will bring dry and increasingly warmer conditions beginning Friday and continuing through the upcoming weekend.
An upper level ridge will build across the region this weekend leading to dry weather conditions and warming temperatures.
Ascent associated with the upper level low has kept widespread showers over the state during the overnight. the cutoff upper level low should retreat back to the south along the Texas coastline as another storm system moves across the northern Plains. This second system will help drive a a stronger cold front through the state late on Saturday.
629 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure will help maintain dry conditions today into tonight.
The forecast will initially start out dry today with high pressure across the area. However, the pattern will change by tonight as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
Prefer the lower MOS values mainly in the mid to upper 50s. The main warm front will extend to the north of the forecast region as South winds develop ahead of the low moving across the northern plains and northern Minnesota. Therefore thunderstorm chances will be only in the low chance range for much of the afternoon, but increase tonight, especially south central and northern sections of southeast Wisconsin. Could see a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening as the trough and associated front move through.
155 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WET WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS.