Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, a picture-perfect day south of the bridge with highs in the mid-upper 60s - roughly 20 to as much as 25 degrees above normal. Overview: Large scale upper level ridging and unseasonably warm air spans the central CONUS into the western Great Lakes this morning, bounded by deep troughing in the eastern Pacific and far eastern Canada/New England region. At the surface, persistent large area of high pressure is centered across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
608 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Little change to general forecast trends during the period with timing and potential phasing of northern and southern stream troughs the primary concern as they move across the region. A southern stream trough was located over the southern Rockies this morning with models similar in tracking the system into the southern plains by Monday morning then stalling out during the day Monday. Northern trough meanwhile tracks across southern Canada and the northern plains tonight.
Models remain fairly consistent with the previous runs and are in good agreement with each other this morning with an upper level trough exiting the Rockies and moving out into the Central High Plains today as the atmosphere ahead of this upper wave saturates. The better opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur Sunday night into early Monday given the forecast instability and lift accompanying the upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas. tonight As the upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley Monday night the GFS and ECMWF both continue to support ridging aloft starting to move out into the northern plains as an upper level low develops and moves southwest across the southern Plains.
A deep upper level low was located over the Four Corners region and the flow aloft over Texas was becoming increasingly divergent. At 850 mb, a strong high pressure system was located over Missouri. The upper low will gradually move east today and tonight and showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous today as the flow aloft becomes more diffluent and moisture levels continue to climb. Tapered PoPs with the higher values to the SW and lower to NE today as the upper low edges eastward. The upper low gets closer tonight and jet dynamics begin to kick in with a nice split in the 300 mb winds and the approach of an 80 kt speed max.
427 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Today and Monday, the upper ridge remains overhead with a slight shift eastward with time. This increase is due to the first of a few waves from the southwest that bump the ridge eastward.
The thinner nature of the cloud cover should allow temps to rise a little warmer with near 80 expected across the area.
642 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure over Ohio this morning will move slowly east and continue to provide fair weather with above normal temperatures across our area for the next couple of days.
A weak upper level system and accompanying cold front are working their way through the CWA this morning. Showers will end this afternoon, and tonight and tomorrow will be dry as ridging moves in aloft.
An upper level low currently spinning over northern New Mexico will move east over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma by Tonight spreading showers into eastern Oklahoma and eventually western Arkansas Tonight.
This high will offer dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Frost advisory over our eastern counties looks to be in good shape as the majority of the high cloud cover has remained to the southwest of this area. There is a sharp temperature gradient in this region as LEX is nearly ten degrees warmer and is only 25 miles away. Surrounding sites haven't been too far behind with readings in the low 40s and are expected to bottom out in the upper 30s with calm to light east winds. Elsewhere, the cirrus deck should help keep fog chances down and we'll start the morning off slightly warmer than yesterday. Expect highs a few degrees warmer as 1000-925 mb temps warm a bit.
Scattered cirrus continues overhead downstream of the slow-moving upper trough, with mid cloud becoming more prevalent over central portions of the state. Upper trough continues to make slow eastward progress into the High Plains overnight, with deeper moisture slowly coming east into eastern Kansas. Again went on the higher end of most guidance based on recent performance. Precipitation chances look rather low through the day, with the increasing moisture and finally some aid from the upper trough bringing better chances overnight. Timing of the thicker cloud and stronger winds should again keep western areas warmer than the east, but higher amounts of both should keep the lowest values in the mid 40s.
This wave is associated with an upper trough that will cross the region today. This shouldn't last long though as a cold front pushes through the region bringing the return of moisture and low clouds. This trough looks to cut off from the main flow and sink south through the week. Models differ on the location of this low during the week.
727 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will persist across the region through much of the week.
914 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move to New England through Monday.
The short term period starts off with high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft centered over the region.
/issued 416 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ Upper trough currently over Colorado will continue to move east and open up today but not before bringing us additional rain chances. The trailing edge of the upper level trough will pass overhead this afternoon and evening providing continued lift but weaker than seen early this morning. After the upper level trough axis passes, subsidence will spread overhead from west to east, especially after midnight. Some energy in it's southern flank does in fact spit and shear southeast helping to weakly reorganize the upper trough in our vicinity by late Monday. Aforementioned well- established drying by virtue of being on the back side of the trough passing tonight will continue into Monday.
952 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will persist across the region through much of the week.
South winds are expected to be stronger today than yesterday, with high temperatures a little cooler.
This trof will phase with northern branch energy dropping southeast from southern Canada on Monday.
Low level ridging centered to our north will allow east-northeast flow across our forecast area today, bring a return flow of Atlantic moisture to our area and along with some light isentropic lift.
The increasing clouds will keep temperatures cooler than then have been the past few days. Temperatures aloft are also slightly cooler, but are still well above normal. Breezy conditions will remain tonight, especially at the higher elevations.
945 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 A pesky upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian maritimes will continue to provide the North Country with cloudy skies and areas of drizzle through mid-day before high pressure building over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley begins to shift east allowing some sunshine to develop this afternoon.
well ahead of the upper trough which continues to gradually shift E across the Rockies.
522 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 Canadian high pressure will settle into the region for much of the upcoming week.
Currently, subtle embedded mid/upper level low moving north across eastern Montana, while a larger upper low over the Desert Southwest morphs into an open wave and moves east-northeast across the central Rockies. Water vapor imagery loop clearly shows these features rotating around the larger open wave and moving north across the high plains. Increasing boundary layer moisture today along to east of Highway 83 with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the low/mid 50sF. Pacific northwest short wave trough pushes into the Northern Plains early Monday shifting a cold front through the region. This will result in cooler temperatures for Monday and some breezy northwest winds.
An upper level trough over the southern/central Rockies will drift into the High Plains by this evening and across the Plains tonight and Monday. A series of mid level impulses rotate through this trough to provide upward forcing while the left exit region of the upper level jet provides diffluent flow aloft. The highest POPs are across the eastern areas of South Central Texas where the deepest moisture and strongest upward forcing are expected.
Dry north to northwest flow aloft will bring mostly clear skies and unseasonably warmer temperatures to the region this week.
420 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Four Corners closed upper low is starting to open up now as it shifts eastward over the CO Rockies per water vapor imagery. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the high 50s and low 60s with cloud cover in place through the day. Some of the high res models are trying to initiate some isolated thunderstorms after the main shield of precip moves through during the afternoon across the western half of CWA. As the upstream side of the upper trough shifts through the Plains Monday an accompanying surface cold front will shift southward through the Panhandles. Slightly cooler temperatures can also be expected.
with outlying areas cooling into the lower 40s. Forecast concerns include two cold fronts.
Otherwise, temperatures are already warming into the low to mid 50s with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s still on track. The high over the OH Valley shifts east tonight into Monday as the ridge builds in aloft. But with the ridge overhead weak subsidence continues and should allow the inversion around 700mb to hold.
Temperatures today should warm a degree or two from Saturdays values as the ridge builds into the region. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s are forecast for the TN Valley today. The high over the OH Valley shifts east tonight into Monday as the ridge builds in aloft. But with the ridge overhead weak subsidence continues and should allow the inversion around 700mb to hold.
934 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the middle of the week.
Otherwise clear skies and light winds in control Today into Tonight as high pressure is slow to exit East. A high amplitude mid level ridge axis will become centered over Lower Mi tonight. Thermal troughing over Lake Michigan and Huron overnight led to the development of some light onshore flow across wrn Lower Mi and the thumb region. The mid level ridge will fold over and dampen Monday into Tues with the approach of northern stream wave. This will support an increased ssw flow on Monday and will boost daytime highs well into the 60s, possibly into the low 70s in some locals.
/issued 340 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Persistent mid-level troughiness is expected over the BRO CWFA throughout the short term forecast period as closed 500 mb low pressure over the Four Corners area opens up and gradually migrates east into the Central Plains.
The H5 ridge axis will hold over the CWA through Monday. Weak short waves moving into the ridge is producing plenty of cirrus that is currently topping the ridge and spilling over into GA. temps should be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday as low level thicknesses have increased.
The sunshine and ridging aloft will allow temperatures to again climb above normal, especially during afternoon hours.
Temperatures have settled in to the low to middle 70s, with tolerable dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure over the Ohio Valley early this morning will migrate eastward today, strengthening over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Another quiet morning is underway, with temperatures settling into the low to mid 40s for most, and mid to upper 30s across the far eastern Ozarks.
The upper low which brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the area the past couple of days will move off to the east today. A weak backdoor cold front remain on track Monday, brining slightly cooler air and a chance for isolated showers or storms to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will keep the storm track well north of the state through the week.
The system that brought the region yet another round of heavy rain will slow exit stage right and dissipate as a ridge slowly builds over the region. Monday will see a break in the active pattern as the ridge continues to build, but with the clearing west side valleys may see dense fog monday morning.
Periods of IFR to MVFR conditions will continue at all terminal sites for this fcst cycle as an upper level low pressure storm system moves across the region. /Issued 420 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ Four Corners closed upper low is starting to open up now as it shifts eastward over the CO Rockies per water vapor imagery. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the high 50s and low 60s with cloud cover in place through the day. Some of the high res models are trying to initiate some isolated thunderstorms after the main shield of precip moves through during the afternoon across the western half of CWA. As the upstream side of the upper trough shifts through the Plains Monday an accompanying surface cold front will shift southward through the Panhandles. Slightly cooler temperatures can also be expected.
A fast moving cold front continues to progress eastward across the forecast area this morning. Precipitation so far has been very light and mainly in the higher elevations. However, precipitation stretches back westward to the Cascades at this time and believe it is just a matter of time before the rainfall reaches the ground in the lower elevations. Perhaps there will be a few hundreths of an inch up to a tenth of an inch in the lower elevations and a couple of tenths of an inch in the eastern mountains. Snow levels are around 5000-7000 feet across the forecast area this morning so snow will only be an issue in the highest elevations and will mainly impact hikers and backpackers in the high country. There will be breezy winds in the Lower Columbia Basin mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities.
Sfc analysis and model guidance show a pronounced inverted trough axis offshore. This inverted trof parallels the coast about 50 to 60 nm offshore. Breezy northeast winds are expected at the coast thanks to the pinched gradient from the coastal trough. The onshore flow has primed the lower atmosphere with precipitable water values increasing about 1/2 inch from 24 hours ago. Winds and seas remain elevated through the day with coastal trough creating pinched gradient and will keep the SCA going for the waters through the day. Expect some local inundation of waters and marshes that will be flooded during the high tides.
Today and Monday, the upper ridge remains overhead with a slight shift eastward with time. This increase is due to the first of a few waves from the southwest that bump the ridge eastward.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Models remain fairly consistent with the previous runs and are in good agreement with each other this morning with an upper level trough exiting the Rockies and moving out into the Central High Plains today as the atmosphere ahead of this upper wave saturates. The better opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur Sunday night into early Monday given the forecast instability and lift accompanying the upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas. As the upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley Monday night the GFS and ECMWF both continue to support ridging aloft starting to move out into the northern plains as an upper level low develops and moves southwest across the southern Plains.
Early this morning, high pressure remained over the eastern United States. This high pressure is not expected to move much in the next 24 hours, Aloft, H5 ridge axis was moving over the CWA this morning. Later this morning, the ridge axis will be east of the area, leading to SW flow aloft.
223 AM PST Sun Nov 6 2016 A weakening low pressure system may bring a few light showers to northeast California and far northwest Nevada today. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail for much of the upcoming week with dry conditions, light winds and above average daytime temperatures. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail across the region for the next several days as high pressure rebuilds. This ridge will be relatively flat with areas of cirrus spreading across the region today through Monday.
650 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move to New England through Monday.
Upper trof lifting across the northern Rockies today will push a cold front through Montana. High pressure will bring a little cooler temperatures on Monday. Upper ridge then rebounds over the northern Rockies for the remainder of the week.
416 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Upper trough currently over Colorado will continue to move east and open up today but not before bringing us additional rain chances. The trailing edge of the upper level trough will pass overhead this afternoon and evening providing continued lift but weaker than seen early this morning. After the upper level trough axis passes, subsidence will spread overhead from west to east, especially after midnight. Some energy in it's southern flank does in fact spit and shear southeast helping to weakly reorganize the upper trough in our vicinity by late Monday. Aforementioned well- established drying by virtue of being on the back side of the trough passing tonight will continue into Monday.
Current surface analysis showing high pressure from western Wyoming into western Colorado this morning. Upper low tracking across eastern New Mexico this morning. Only getting some scattered mid and high clouds over southeast Wyoming from this low. 5km humidity showing a dry low layer of 15-20 percent across southeast Wyoming as the low moves east.
/issued 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. The upper ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late tomorrow. An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer tonight but dew point temperatures are several degrees lower. The clear skies and light winds over most of the area should allow for good radiative cooling and believe lows tonight will be similar to last night, maybe a couple of degrees warmer. Have adjusted a few temperatures in the higher portions of Central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands down a degree or two.
On Sunday, a weak Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will gradually move westward from the NE Florida coast. With the increased cloud cover and rain, high temperatures will remain in the lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s, warmer near the coast.
The strength of the subtropical high/ridge will be great enough today to preclude much/if any precip as height fields remain high. Height fields should lower through the day Monday as deeper moisture approaches the region as a strong inverted trough aloft arrives by late in the day. CWA is expected to remain on the drier/western side of the trough on Monday.
More showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the evening over mainly far northern Minnesota due to an upper trough and cooling temperatures aloft. High pressure will move into the area tonight bringing an end to the showers/storms. Meanwhile, the first in a parade of short wave trofs embedded in the quasi-zonal flow aloft will move into Minnesota.
Also of note is the high freezing levels > 14kft, so storms will need to be fairly tall to generate severe hail much like yesterday. The remainder of the short term features high pressure overhead with a lower humidity airmass.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday and Sunday night in the humid and moderately unstable airmass ahead of an approaching cold front.
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 An upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend. A cold front will move through the region on Monday, bringing with it an enhanced chance of thunderstorms.
On Mon and into early Tue an upr ridge wl be centered ovr CO and NM, and is then expected to moves westward Tue night and Wed, becoming centered ovr the Great Basin. Then, from Thur and thru Sat the upr ridge center is forecast to be near southwestern UT.
Rising 500 mb heights Sunday foretell warmer and dry conditions. High pressure brings mostly clear skies and light winds to the forecast area tonight through Sunday. Stronger subsidence shifts east over the region tonight as ridging aloft builds east into the Northern Rockies and MT and remains over the region through early Monday.
The upper level trough moves off to the east today to be replaced by a ridge. The ridge flattens out for Monday while the cool air boundary moves back north into Canada.
Weak upper ridging will be over the area tonight with a dry airmass so had no need for PoPs. The highest CAPES shift E late Mon.
144 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend. A cold front will move through the area on Monday allowing for thunderstorms across the region. On Monday there will be a better chance for thunderstorm activity as a cold front moves through the region. Cold front will stall out near/just south of the Ohio River during the mid-week.
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region mostly Monday afternoon and evening.
Models show upper troughing over NorCal will slowly deepen during the next 24 hours.
244 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The worst heat and humidity will continue for one more day, with gradual improvement expected after today, as the much anticipated westward shift of the upper level ridge commences. Much like yesterday, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, as an upper level disturbance pushes from northeast to southwest through Arkansas and into the ArkLaTex region on the periphery of the ridge.
A closed upper level low is positioned off the eastern coast of Florida this morning and will slide across the Florida peninsula today. Could see a slightly earlier start to convection across land today, but overall should be fairly similar to yesterday as it appears the upper level low will be too far from the CWA to enhance convection during the day. Have confined the highest PoPs (40-50%) across the far western portions of the CWA, mainly across Florida with a secondary max at the far eastern edge accounting for storms moving in from the east late in the day. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 90s inland to upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. This will lead to heat indicies mainly in the lower 100s.
High pressure will bring dry and mild weather today and Monday.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low spinning across MS/AR and W TN. At the surface, there is also a weak high pressure in place across the Appalachian Region. For today, easterly flow develops in the mid and upper levels as the closed low moves off to the west. 18 inch range with the lower values across SW VA and the higher values across the Southern Valley. Temperatures will be warm again with highs in the low to mid 90s with 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range. Yesterday's highs exceeded guidance by a good bit despite the widespread precipitation coverage, therefore, stayed a bit warmer than guidance with highs today.