Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some areas of patchy fog and some scattered clouds around this morning with temperatures a couple degrees cooler in most locations. The forecast area is in between Bermuda upper level ridge and ridging over the southwest states.
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Upper ridging to the west and east with troughing across the local area.
A slow-moving MCV drifting east-northeast over the Lower Ohio Valley will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon through Friday.
The subtropical ridge is building and lifting north. Likewise, the ridge axis is also pivoting northward into central Florida. This is because a mid to upper level trough currently located north of Hispaniola, will trek westward.
Heat will continue Friday and into the weekend as the ridge builds over the Central Plains and increasing south-southwesterly flow allows for 850 mb temperatures in the 20-22 degree C range to sprawl across the Missouri Ozarks.
(Tonight through Friday Night) GOES derived wind vectors/NWP model initializations depict the inverted upper trough over the central Gulf of Mexico, and GOES infrared imagery depicts the associated convection. Further, satellite-based PWAT values are high in the vicinity of the trough.
114 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate through Friday as it meanders over the Four Corners region. Temperatures will still be hot, but with the lower moisture today, we can expect heat index values to be just a bit lower than yesterday. 4 inches but as an inverted trough pushes through the area, we can expect some increase in these overnight tonight and through Friday when PWATs could reach 1.
1217 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 The H5 ridge continues to spin over the southwestern US, generally centered in far SW Colorado. A trough moving across the US/Canada border will also help bring the moisture northward. Have kept the low end chance pops for today, with isolated thunder. A considerable change in the pattern peaks starting Friday, as the monsoonal moisture sweeps across the region, and is influenced by the passing trough to the north.
An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest today. A weak trough will be over the area on Friday.
Updated forecasts have adjusted for hourly trends but retained the high temps and current headlines. Trends will continue to be monitored should cooler temps appear more likely.
The heat will be the top weather story across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds overhead.
Winds from the surface to 500 mb should stay light all night and with the higher dewpoints low temperatures will only fall back into the lower to mid 70s. Winds at the surface should switch back to the south to southwest as a trough of low pressure develops in eastern Colorado. There could be some lingering mid 60 dewpoints in our eastern zones and with highs getting into the lower 100s this will likely be enough to reach heat advisory criteria (105 F).
Instability does appear to be maximized across Lower Michigan this afternoon where slightly cooler mid level profiles are in place. A stagnant weather pattern lies ahead with a weak cold front slowly approaching the area poised to stall out in an area from the eastern Great Lakes, westward into the mid- Mississippi River Valley.
Tonight, the winds will shift back to the south and ridging will build back into the region.
24 hour temperature changes with exception of the Bay Shoreline and parts of interior North Bay and South Bay show cooler readings compared to this time yesterday. The usual diurnal surface warming and vertical mixing through the lower atmosphere is occurring and mixing out morning coastal stratus, fog (including a few patches of early morning mainly non- measurable drizzle). The 12z NAM hints at 500 mb thermal troughing over interior Monterey, eastern Santa Clara and San Benito counties on the heels of this band of moisture and instability tonight. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Temperatures today will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday and will reach 100F in some lower valley locations. Cooler temperatures will return on Friday with thunderstorms increasing across the area.
329 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure is situated over Lake Superior this afternoon and will remain there through Friday.
A short wave trough sliding through northern Ontario pushes a cold frontal boundary aligned from south central South Dakota into northeastern Minnesota.
Cold front with lower dew points and north winds behind it is sinking south through the midway point of Lake Michigan and Central Michigan.
Low temperatures overnight will be in the low 70s.
Then tonight, skies clear, with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s.
356 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 A weak low pressure trough will remain across the Ohio Valley through tonight providing scattered to numerous showers. A weak trough of low pressure will continue to linger across the region tonight. Along and ahead of the trough will be an axis of PWATs of around 2 inches. For later tonight, a pair of MCVs moving northeast up the lower Ohio River Valley will likely bring with them a re-initiation of showers and embedded storms.
235 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central Canada, with a warm front now pushing east of the local forecast area. Upper level analysis shows persistent high pressure over the Four Corners area into the southern Plains, with near zonal flow across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Cold front will start to push into northern and western portions of the forecast area during the morning and slowly move southeast across the area through the afternoon and early evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially to the east of the Black Hills in the afternoon and early evening, near and ahead of the cold front.
A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, which will cause a weak ridge to build over western Montana.
It didn't seem to capture the moisture in the low levels when there were showers for several hours during the flight. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of these showers as they move NW with a slight chance of storms this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain.
The weekend begins with a broad mid-level ridge over the eastern two- thirds of the country.
High pressure is nosing into the Upper Michigan this afternoon with the cold front in SE Lower. Warmer Again with Increasing Weekend Shower Chances.
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis centered over New Mexico will result in another dry and very hot day across west central Texas.
Upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region will shift east a bit from today to Friday, allowing for some synoptic cooling for northern California.
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 The upper level high will continue to dictate the local weather tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow's setup will be similar to today's since the upper level anticyclone will remain in place.
With the upper high center forecast to be over eastern NM or the TX Panhandle, storms are anticipated to move slowly to the northwest or north, in general.
Otherwise, look for a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the low to mid 90s. The region will transition to stronger southeasterly flow aloft as the upper level ridge across the western Atlantic ocean builds west into Florida.
The second round of tropical moisture will advect into the region and moisten the low and mid- levels of the atmospheric column. High pressure over the western Atlantic will build over the Keys this weekend resulting in an increase in east to southeast breezes.
Relief appears likely by midweek as the ridge of high pressure shifts east over the Atlantic Ocean. Heat, humidity, and afternoon storms continue through the weekend as upper ridging and a stalled boundary parks over the region. Daily afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with low temperatures exceeding 70 in the Lower Susq Valley.
Activity will focus on southern Idaho Friday night while Oregon begins to clear out behind an upper trough in that area.
Deep layered ridging from the ocean will stretch across the local region, resulting in plenty of large scale subsidence. As of late Thursday evening the local temps were running several degrees warmer than a similar time last evening. This will result in min temps that are a tad warmer than last night for most communities. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area late week into the weekend.
Inland areas should remain VFR except this evening in vicinity of isolated convection over the higher terrain.
High pressure over the NM area will continue to circulate monsoonal moisture into portions of the Panhandles. Storms should diminish later this evening as we begin to stabilize again, and the high will shift further east, becoming more centered over the Panhandles tomorrow.
501 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Precipitation chances will remain high today and tomorrow as a trough to the west advances into the Ohio River Valley. A few showers/isold tstms will remain possible overnight in close proximity to the trough, though the potential for severe weather should end. 8 range with a high freezing level and saturated column to the surface.
Models are continuing to pick up on a surge of dry air moving north across the state Friday, as the elongated area of high pressure located from the Plains west towards California will begin to propagate to the east.
956 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Convection continues to percolate along a weak mid level trough/shear axis stretching from the OH Valley into the Lower MS valley. Going into the weekend, we should see warmer temps and a few afternoon showers each day as we remain on the outskirts of the Bermuda high allowing moisture to remain abundant in the atmosphere.
A surface cold front brings isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening for Southwest Montana and portions of Central Montana.
Warm across the interior again today with cooler conditions nearer the coast. 24 hour temperature changes with exception of the Bay Shoreline and parts of interior North Bay and South Bay show cooler readings compared to this time yesterday. The usual afternoon diurnal surface warming and vertical mixing through the lower atmosphere continues to mix out coastal stratus. The NAM hints at 500 mb thermal troughing over interior Monterey, eastern Santa Clara and San Benito counties on the heels of this band of moisture and instability tonight. Otherwise upper level troughing approaching from the west will help cool temperatures including inland locations through the weekend. KSFO Bridge Approach.
/issued 239 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/ The upper level high will continue to dictate the local weather tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow's setup will be similar to today's since the upper level anticyclone will remain in place.
Scattered showers are possible overnight with the area in close proximity to the trough, though thunderstorm coverage should become isolated. 8 range with a high freezing level and saturated column to the surface.
/issued 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/ Upper ridging to the west and east with troughing across the local area.
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 A weak low pressure trough will remain across the Ohio Valley through tonight providing scattered to numerous showers. A weak trough of low pressure will continue to linger across the region tonight. Along and ahead of the trough will be an axis of PWATs of around 2 inches. For later tonight, a pair of MCVs moving northeast up the lower Ohio River Valley will likely bring with them a re-initiation of showers and embedded storms.
Gusty southerly flow will diminish a little this evening, but should persist at 10 to 20 mph through the overnight keeping overnight temps substantially warmer than last night, from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to low 70s overnight as warmer air continues to advect into the region. A cold front will bring thunderstorm chances to the area, primarily for west-central Minnesota and points south and east.
647 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A cold front may approach next Thursday to bring higher rain chances. High pressure will ridge into the area from the east through the period. Mins tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Friday will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather at the surface producing near normal temperatures along with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A pattern change is possible my mid-week as a trough develops over the Great Lakes region. The upper level ridging will remain in place across the Central US with a strong Bermuda high located offshore.
A weak upper trough will be over the region through Friday.
Otherwise, lows will drop into the low to mid 50s for those away from the lakeshores tonight. High pressure is nosing into the Upper Michigan this afternoon with the cold front in SE Lower. Warmer Again with Increasing Weekend Shower Chances.
Temps look to be a bit warmer than last night, averaging out to a few degrees above climo. This Evening and Tonight: Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will extend across the western Atlantic to the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will persist across the region. Temps should remain mild overnight, dipping into the low- mid 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 at the beaches. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area late week into the weekend.
Relief appears likely by midweek as the ridge of high pressure shifts east over the Atlantic Ocean.
Easterly flow will continue with high pressure to the north, and an afternoon sea breeze will turn winds onshore near the coast each day.
743 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Subtropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain control of our weather pattern for several more days. We can expect predominately afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage generally over the higher terrain. As of 1245 PM Thu: The pattern remains largely unchanged for the weekend, which is perhaps not surprising given our position between two deep upper anticyclones. At the start of the period Friday evening an ill-defined 500mb trough will be present over the Ohio Valley, within which GFS and NAM depict a scraggly axis of vorticity. Weak southerly flow suggests convective initiation is most likely over the ridgetops, and increases the likelihood of the sea breeze playing a role in the evening.
528 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central Canada, with a warm front now pushing east of the local forecast area. Upper level analysis shows persistent high pressure over the Four Corners area into the southern Plains, with near zonal flow across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Cold front will start to push into northern and western portions of the forecast area during the morning and slowly move southeast across the area through the afternoon and early evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially to the east of the Black Hills in the afternoon and early evening, near and ahead of the cold front.
Another active day is expected Friday with slow-moving SHRA/TS on the high terrain by 18Z. Slightly cooler temperatures are also a possibility with temperatures becoming closer to normal for this time of year. Movement is slow and erratic, with high pressure centered over northeast NM. The upper high pressure area will become centered over southwest KS by late Friday.
High temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along area beaches over the next several days. Little to no pattern change for Fri, with high pressure extending over the area from offshore and troughing inland. Low level thickness values and SW flow support highs temps in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches.
658 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 As ridging builds in this afternoon and leaves tonight, expect mostly clear skies across the area, save for some diurnal cu (as seen on satellite imagery) and some areas of fog near Lake Superior in Alger and Luce counties this afternoon. With the diurnal cu field dying out, but some slight WAA happening aloft as the ridge leaves, expect temps tonight to dip into the 50s, with a few spots in the interior east (near Newberry) dipping below 50.
212 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 The mid/upper ridge centered across the Southern High Plains tonight is progged to build slowly east and northeastward across the Central Plains through the weekend.
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will build westward into the southeast in the wake of the weak upper disturbance that plagued us with wet weather the past couple of days. While drier air will help for some stronger downdrafts, subsidence from the upper ridge should keep storms from getting too deep keeping the strong storm potential on the lower end. With lower convective coverage, temperatures on Friday will trend upward with highs in the low to mid 90s and continue into Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the immediate coast.
Upper level high pressure is centered over the TX/OK panhandle with a remnant trough located from central into the NE part of the state. The best chances of convection will be during peak heating and over the east, further away from the influence of the upper high. The upper high will begin to work its way to the east for Saturday and any precipitation will be confined to the eastern sections of the CWA and once again, diurnally driven in nature. Temperatures will be a touch warmer over the east and basically the same elsewhere.
(Today through Saturday) A weak trough axis is centered over West Tennessee with low level moisture pooling along a convergence zone in western Kentucky where heavy rain has been falling over the last few hours. Regardless, more scattered showers and storms are expected today as Middle Tennessee is sandwiched between the western upper high and the Bermuda high to the east.
153 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Between low pressure over Alberta and high pressure to the south, upper flow over the northern plains is weakly ridged. Before the cold front makes its way through the CWA, temperatures will warm into the 90s to around 105 today, hottest across central SD. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will develop across south central SD in the afternoon, as southerly winds advect in warm, moist air ahead of the trough. Storms may develop along the cold front, but shear in that area is not impressive.
1129 PM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge axis extending from central NM into KS. Convection to redevelop over the higher terrain by 18Z becoming sct-nmrs with mts occasionally obscured as cells drift to the north and ne and eventually into the lower elevations. Slightly cooler temperatures are also a possibility with temperatures becoming closer to normal for this time of year. Movement is slow and erratic, with high pressure centered over northeast NM. The upper high pressure area will become centered over southwest KS by late Friday.
Meanwhile, high pressure continues to dominate over the Peninsula keeping east to southeasterly flow through the period. Afternoon highs stay in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
It appears we could get a break from triple digit heat throughout our region and may reach around 3-5 degrees below average, especially if cloud cover remains over the lower elevations for much of the day. This will be a minor shift in the pattern, and enough moisture will remain over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada to provide a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Current high resolution ensemble guidance suggests this scenario, as well as the presence of an upper-level low pressure system off the coast of Northern California.
Weather pattern remains dominated by upper level ridging today and tomorrow, with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices above 100F for most of the area each afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s tonight.
351 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery depicts an area of high pressure centered over northeastern New Mexico, and will shunt monsoonal moisture to the west through the day.
123 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
/issued 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/ Upper ridging to the west and east with troughing across the local area. The Bermuda Ridge attempts to build into the area from the east over the next few days.
Wx map shows high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak mid to upper level trough axis extending over the Southern states through the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The mid to upper level trough axis expected to move further west tonight and Friday. Lows each day in the lower to mid 70s, with upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
The trough axis is oriented sw-ne just to the southeast of the OH river. Moreover, the next 2 overnights do feature some appreciable upper divergence as the trough axis remain in close proximity.
Expect temps near normal today, with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees in some areas across north central and northwest AL.
256 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show low amplitude mid-level ridging approaching the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning. Skies are clear, and temps at 06z range from the mid 40s F at traditional interior cold spots across the eastern fcst area to around 60F far w under light return flow on the backside of the high. While some precip could occur early Saturday in the far W out ahead of the boundary, the higher chances for the bulk of the land area appears to hold off until later on Saturday into Saturday night.
Scattered showers are still possible early this morning with the close proximity to a trough, though thunderstorm coverage should become isolated. 8 inches), a high freezing level, and saturated ground from showers/storms over the last 24 hours, flash flooding will once again pose a threat. By early Saturday the trough axis (mentioned above) will likely advance just east of Pittsburgh, scattered showers and storms appear promising in the Laurel Highlands and south of I-70 throughout the day.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A mid level trough of low pressure swings underneath the ridge and into Deep South Texas to start this weekend, with potentially the best chance of rain on the board in the past week.
Fair conditions otherwise should continue into daybreak Friday with lows cooling into the lower to middle 70s.
At the surface, a diffuse boundary (originally arrived as a cold front, now stalled and quasi-stationary) will be draped across the southern third of the lower peninsula.
/issued 956 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/ Convection continues to percolate along a weak mid level trough/shear axis stretching from the OH Valley into the Lower MS valley. Going into the weekend, we should see warmer temps and a few afternoon showers each day as we remain on the outskirts of the Bermuda high allowing moisture to remain abundant in the atmosphere.
Freezing heights will also continue to be well above the 700mb level, reinforcing the likelihood of efficient rainfall through warm rain processes.
(Tonight through Friday Night) GOES derived wind vectors/NWP model initializations depict the inverted upper trough over the central Gulf of Mexico, and GOES infrared imagery depicts the associated convection. Further, satellite-based PWAT values are high in the vicinity of the trough. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF generally agree with the timing of the westward moving inverted upper trough during the period, with axis approaching the coast overnight, then moving over the CWA Saturday.