Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Drier air will continue to overspread the area today, as mid and low level flow gradually take on more of a W-SW component in response to digging trough along the Pacific Coast. Sunday still looks like the hottest day of the period, with temps over the Plains soaring into the lower 100s by mid- afternoon. But given the modest moisture advection from the south, and weak disturbance ejecting ahead of the trough over the PacNW, a few storms seem possible so will maintain ISOLD POPs for most of the CWA.
Overnight lows tonight a few degrees higher than last, in the lower 70s.
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Low pressure over Southeast Ontario will continue moving east into New England today while high pressure builds in from the west.
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The upper level flow remains from the west-northwest while a deep closed low tracks across the Great Lakes region and upper trough moves into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys. At the surface, a trough has developed over the area as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures tonight should fall into the lower to mid 70s once again for most areas, with just some high clouds once the convection comes to an end. The upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys sinks further south into the lower Mississippi Valley with somewhat of a weak southwesterly flow aloft developing over the region on Sunday.
They were occurring ahead of a cold front that extended from northern OH to southern IL early this morning. A bubble of high pressure passing by to our north will then maintain dry weather through Sunday, and bring a slightly less humid air mass.
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The persistent heat wave will continue with little change in the overall synoptic pattern with upper level flow remaining from the west-northwest while a deep closed low tracks across the Great Lakes region and upper trough moves into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys. At the surface, a trough will develop over the area while a backdoor cold front approaches from the north. The upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys sinks further south into the lower Mississippi Valley with somewhat of a weak southwesterly flow aloft developing over the region on Sunday.
113 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Low pressure over Southeast Ontario will continue moving east into New England today while high pressure builds in from the west.
528 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level ridge builds across the area today. Cold front will slip into northeast Wyoming late Sunday and slowly move across the are Sunday night. Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, mainly along trof/dry line over eastern portion of forecast area.
The upper level ridge that has been over the region is expected to begin retrograding back to the west today, with a short wave rotating between the upper level ridge and developing upper level trough over the eastern U. Enough upper level ridging to hang around today to keep rain chances in the isolated category, with the majority of the activity occurring near the sea breeze during max heating.
A cool and showery pattern will continue through the weekend with an upper low gradually moving into the area tonight and Sunday.
252 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A high pressure ridge is settling into the region bringing drier and cooler air into the Midwest.
226 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 140 PM CDT A quiet night ahead with 1018 mb high pressure to move over with the sky likely clearing by sundown. Even with that the 850-925mb temperatures will warm a couple degrees C from this afternoon and highs should result a tad warmer than today, with onshore flow still keeping lake adjacent areas in the 70s.
247 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will move through the rest of the area this evening. Cooler and mainly dry conditions prevail tonight and Sunday. Another stretch of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather is expected for the new week. Sunday looks like a fine day with a slight westerly breeze as high pressure oozes into the Mid-Atlantic from the Midwest. Energy rounding the base of the upper trough and some instability from the cooling profile aloft could touch off some showers - mainly in the morning - in the NE. Upper level ridging quickly expands northward through mid-week with summertime pattern returning to the area.
a a few degrees cooler at 15z versus yesterday with similar dewpoints. /ISSUED / Mid/upper trof axis currently pushing across NW/N Tx should eventually carve out a weakness in the ridge across SE Tx that has dominated area wx for the past several days. High pressure over the NE Gulf and lower pressures to the WNW will help to main- tain the gradient over the region.
112 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Isolated thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado this afternoon along the lee trough. with the upper level ridge axis very close.
Some of the high-res model guidance is showing some isolated activity possible around KDRT late this afternoon, but overall the probabilities are too low to mention at this time. Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the central Gulf and winds were from the southeast. Little change is expected today and tonight with the upper level ridge remaining in place.
726 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Frontal boundary across the lower Ohio Valley will move slowly south into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Surface ridging begins to build into the region with patchy fog.
142 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 140 PM CDT A quiet night ahead with 1018 mb high pressure to move over with the sky likely clearing by sundown. Even with that the 850-925mb temperatures will warm a couple degrees C from this afternoon and highs should result a tad warmer than today, with onshore flow still keeping lake adjacent areas in the 70s.
750 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and still slightly unsettled conditions will prevail this weekend with isolated showers and thunderstorms each day.
644 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cooler and less humid airmass will settle southward into central Illinois today, courtesy of 1016mb high pressure over the Upper Midwest. A weak trough of low pressure analyzed on 07z/2am surface map extending across southern Michigan/Wisconsin will drop southeastward, triggering scattered clouds and perhaps even a few sprinkles across northeast Illinois into northern Indiana. Elsewhere skies are expected to remain mostly sunny with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
1110 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The persistent heat wave will continue with little change in the overall synoptic pattern with upper level flow remaining from the west-northwest while a deep closed low tracks across the Great Lakes region and upper trough moves into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys. At the surface, a trough will develop over the area while a backdoor cold front approaches from the north. The upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys sinks further south into the lower Mississippi Valley with somewhat of a weak southwesterly flow aloft developing over the region on Sunday.
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The persistent heat wave will continue with little change in the overall synoptic pattern with upper level flow remaining from the west-northwest while a deep closed low tracks across the Great Lakes region and upper trough moves into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys. At the surface, a trough will develop over the area while a backdoor cold front approaches from the north. The upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys sinks further south into the lower Mississippi Valley with somewhat of a weak southwesterly flow aloft developing over the region on Sunday.
A deep trough over the Pacific Northwest will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions across the area this weekend.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period.
Given the high temps around 100 in this area, some gusty winds over 40 mph could develop, especially if multicell clusters develop.
An unseasonably cold upper level trough will settle into the Pacific Northwest today. Southwest flow aloft will continue to increase ahead of this trough. A strong cold front will sweep across the area Sunday, resulting in much colder temperatures for the beginning of the upcoming week. The forecast area is under a relatively strong southwest flow this morning in between the ridge centered over Colorado and the broad upper trough just off the Pacific Northwest coast. The large trough will move onshore tonight before grazing northern Utah tomorrow. Instability will be decent across northern portions of the forecast area tomorrow with he passage of the trough and associated front tomorrow, but moisture will be limited.
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will drift south tonight and stall near the North Carolina-South Carolina border as weak high pressure build into the region from the northwest Sunday.
Some patchy light fog may develop in the favored cold spots and near the much warmer inland bodies of water.
The models cont to suggest that an elongated upr trof/shear axis wl align itself ovr the region thru the short term.
246 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A NE-SW oriented mid level trough axis is sliding slowly south across the region today, on the eastern side of the ridge centered near the AZ/NM border. with the best chances in the east near the lingering mid level low/trough.
Early morning upper air analysis and water vapor imagery showed an upper trough sliding across the Great Lakes. Flow was more zonal across the Deep South, though a weak upper low was situated over the eastern Gulf. Slight weakness was developing in the mid level trough which has been limiting precip across the area in recent days. However, the latest SPC SSEO shows the best opportunity for convection as early as late morning along the Highway 82 corridor, expanding southeastward across much of Central MS during the afternoon, with a decrease tonight.
Storms will initially develop in the higher terrain and slowly work their way to the lower elevations. Beginning Friday, the axis of strong high pressure will shift over or just south of the forecast area and drier air will start to move in from the west. The greatest storm chances will remain over southern Navajo and Apache Counties where the highest moisture will linger.
A lower level trough over our area has contributed to morning rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area. With that said, the lower level trough will only slow edge westward out of our area, and showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility in a seasonably unstable environment. When the time is right, will update to shave pops back into the low to mid chance range.
Indiana weather will be controlled through the weekend by high pressure sprawling across the country east of the Mississippi.
HOT and humid today as an upper level ridge begins to really influence our weather across Middle TN. PoPs will be very low, if any, and heat index values will climb into the low to middle triple digits.
1040 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Strong upper-level ridge across the region to maintain hot conditions areawide with most locations forecast to experience high temperatures in the upper 90s. /issued 651 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ For the ArkLaTex, the upper ridge is spinning over overhead, but is slowly retrograding West which may bring to bear some weak N/NW flow aloft for venting isold tstms almost anywhere. /issued 340 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ The upper level high pressure system remain entrenched across the Central Plains. Southern Plains and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Sea-breeze convection slow to get going across Southern LA due to the proximity of the UL ridge, but the day has just begun and it will likely increase in coverage later this morning.
1151 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure in control in dry/stable air.
An impressive 700 mb ridge characterized by 324 dam geopotential heights extends across the Southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. Relief from the excessive heat will come by the beginning of the weekend as the upper ridge begins to break down.
Another mild day is expected today as an upper level trough remains over the West Coast. A warming trend will begin Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds into California. Temperatures will be similar to a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, especially inland as an upper level trough dominates the weather pattern over the West Coast and high pressure builds over the central portion of the country. The marine layer depth is only about 1000 feet per the Fort Ord profiler, and given the limited stratus inland, expect mostly sunny skies today and slightly warmer temperatures across the district, with 60s at the coast. High pressure is forecast to build in over California from the desert Southwest beginning on Friday.
/issued 430 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions continue under the upper ridge.
615 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 This will be the hottest day of the heatwave so far as the RAP and GFS are showing upper ridge building over the area today.
Upper level high pressure continues to dominate at this time. Good agreement in model solutions in regards to strength and location of upper ridge that has dominated the forecast lately. Close to a carbon copy temperature wise across the forecast area today, with some sites in northern Arkansas a degree or two warmer. Slightly better rain chances on Friday, mainly across southeastern areas during the afternoon and evening hours as a weak disturbance rounds the eastern edge of the upper ridge.
Currently, a cold front is moving through north central South Dakota while an outflow boundary from North Dakota convection is trying to move southward through the cwa out ahead of the frontal boundary.
958 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure over West Virginia early this morning will drift eastward off the East Coast today. This will allow a warm front to lift northeastward across the region through this evening. A weak cold front will sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.
Upper level low off the Oregon coast will move inland and track across Washington this afternoon into Friday. A dry cold front will move through the region tonight, with temperatures around 10 degrees cooler on Friday. A dry cold front will move from west to east late this afternoon and this evening with increasing winds ahead of the front, shifting to northwesterly behind the front. Dry southwest flow will continue over the area as an upper low resides off the West Coast. Temperatures will be hot this afternoon, with highs around 100F in the lower valleys. The upper low will move through Washington tonight and reach the ID panhandle by late Friday afternoon. The upper low will drag a dry cold front through the region tonight.
(Issued 314 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016) The expansive anticyclone that is over the Central and Southern Plains continues to bring very hot and humid conditions across those regions and the Southeast. As the upper flow pattern shifts this weekend, higher heat index values are possible due to a dampened split ridge shifting the center of the anticyclone over the TN valley.
High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s with some valley locations reaching the lower 100s. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s with some valley locations reaching the lower 100s. A Pacific Northwest low will keep pressure gradient tighter across western Humboldt county today before winds diminish across the CWA Friday as the influence of the passing trough wanes.
Some mid level forcing with 700mb wave moving around the upper high and mucapes around 1500 j/kg^2. Have kept temperatures on Friday in the mid-90s as the majority of model guidance is trending towards the continued warmer temperatures.
Today: Latest radar loop was showing a few showers in the northern Nebraska panhandle in association with a weak surface trof. These showers should mostly dissipate by sunrise as the surface trof shifts east of the area. This trof should act to suppress the convection this afternoon, but we still cannot rule out a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon. Tonight: The surface flow should begin to turn back to the east which will allow for the low level moisture to advect into the panhandle.
Water Vapor satellite trends this morning place an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to produce very hot temperatures in the middle to upper 90s across the forecast area this afternoon. These very hot temperatures combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat index values reaching or exceeding 105 degrees. 00z WRF/GFS/ECMWF models still indicate a gradual weakening of the ridge over the upcoming weekend.
Expect another hot afternoon today with a 598 dam 500 mb ridge overhead. Temperatures are running 1-2F degrees warmer with dew points 1-4F lower than 24 hours ago yesterday. So with a drier low-level airmass, anticipate many locations to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Overall, slightly preferred the lower guidance high numbers as most models, especially the GFS, seem to be too dry in the boundary layer and too deep with vertical mixing.
Radar is quiet this morning with surface obs showing continued muggy conditions with temperatures and dewpoints both in the low to mid 70s. Strong H5 ridge centered over Oklahoma will continue to be main influencing factor in our weather today into tomorrow, with Middle Tennessee in a light northerly flow regime on the east side of the ridge.
1028 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 High pressure over the area will drift offshore this afternoon.
Nearest waves of precipitation were north of the region near Savannah associated with a short wave trough axis. and south of the area near Cape Canaveral near another short wave trough axis. Both of these spokes of energy were rotating southward within the base of a deep layer trough that extended east of the U. the the focus for rainfall this afternoon inland and generally west of the Highway 301 corridor. There is a continued chance of isolated strong to severe storms especially across SE Ga and the Suwannee River Valley later this afternoon and this evening where forcing from the short wave trough axis currently near Savannah will pass over low level sea breeze/outflow convergence and high low level instability. Above normal temperatures will continue and range from the lower 90s along the Atlantic coast to the mid/upper 90s inland.
651 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 For the ArkLaTex, the upper ridge is spinning over overhead, but is slowly retrograding West which may bring to bear some weak N/NW flow aloft for venting isold tstms almost anywhere. /issued 340 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ The upper level high pressure system remain entrenched across the Central Plains. Southern Plains and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Sea-breeze convection slow to get going across Southern LA due to the proximity of the UL ridge, but the day has just begun and it will likely increase in coverage later this morning.
705 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure over West Virginia early this morning will drift eastward off the East Coast today. This will allow a warm front to lift northeastward across the region through this evening. A weak cold front will sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.
Limited moisture and confluent flow aloft due to the high pressure to the north, will hindered convective develop through the afternoon.
1111 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A weak cold front will sag south of the area today, then slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the north. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend while an inland trough prevails.
Deep ridging aloft will dominate, keeping convective activity rotating around us. /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will remain anchored over the central and southern high plains through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Mid level heights will reach as high as 598 decameters which indicates subsidence will be strong across North-Central Texas, despite moisture trapped within the ridge as shown by morning water vapor satellite imagery.
The very warm, unstable, and moist atmosphere remains in place as the zone of high pressure persists over the central US. Strong wind gusts will be possible with the DCAPE value near 900 J/kg, which is the highest its been this week. As was the case yesterday with the wind profile, most of the winds are from an easterly direction throughout the atmosphere as the air circulates around the high pressure. This will keep our area under the southeastern periphery of the ridge allowing small disturbances to rotate around the ridge and move into the area with some moderate to strong thunderstorm activity for the next several days.
In the higher terrain KY mesonet shows dewpoints of 52 at Dorton and 59 at Black Mountain. High pressure will remain in control of our weather today. The main upper level ridge will shift slightly more to our west tonight. This will allow the low level winds to turn towards the southwest on Friday, ushering in higher moisture. A wave in the upper level flow is progged to drop southeast around the ridge towards our area late Friday afternoon, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast.
Strong/expansive upper high, currently centered over the central U. High temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer on Friday, however drier southwest winds could keep heat indices around the same or slightly lower across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
the trough of low pressure and wind shift line at the afc will be near the sd/nd/mn border region this aftn/eve but warm air aloft and lack of upper level dyanmics is anticipated to prevent tstm formation.
The blend of short range models has the afternoon temps topping out a few degrees cooler than what we had going, more in the upper 80s to low 90s rather than more widespread 90s. With clouds this seems reasonable so have temps just a degree or so cooler. the trough of low pressure and wind shift line at the afc will be near the sd/nd/mn border region this aftn/eve but warm air aloft and lack of upper level dynamics is anticipated to prevent tstm formation.
Similar to previous nights across the area, with temperatures still holding in the low 80s for much of the area at this early hour. Outflow boundary has made progress across western Kansas from convection on the high plains, and may make a run at the north central counties but not expecting much in the way of a sensible weather impact.
Upper level high pressure will bring yet another hot and humid day to the region.
The area remains within a growing weakness between the large upper level ridge over the south central United States and high pressure over the western Atlantic.