Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong winds continue over our area in the wake of the low with winds gusting into the 60s over many locations. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, winds will eventually ease up as the low gradually scoots off towards the north-northeast and pressure gradient relaxes. Northwesterly flow with ridge to the west will keep quiet weather over our area to start the upcoming week, with near seasonal temperatures.
We will continue with the lower chance PoPs in the morning and then jump up to 50% in the afternoon.
432 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper low will provide a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. The upper low will open and shift NE Saturday, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
131 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper low will provide a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. The upper low will open and shift NE Saturday, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
The instability and lapse rates look solid and confidence is on the higher end that there will be thunderstorm development.
As low pressure centered in southern Canada continues to spin and slowly move east, we'll see a couple of waves move through the northern Plains. As a wave passes to the north by early Saturday morning, expect a cold front to sweep through as well. This along with breezy northwesterly surface flow and CAA will lead to a slightly cooler day, particularly across our northwest.
DHT may be more northwesterly as the low shifts overhead. Cold front moving through the Texas Panhandle at this time will track east and south out of the forecast area this morning. Short term model solutions vary between the warm front lifting as far north as the Texas Panhandle or keeping south of the forecast area.
A weak area of high pressure at the surface was located over northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon and a cold front extended from southeast Kansas to the panhandle of Texas. Saturday will be sunny and warmer.
308 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 The big low pressure system has now lifted into southwest Manitoba.
Ridging aloft continues to build into the forecast area this afternoon allowing for a warmer afternoon (highs slightly above normal) following some chilly early morning temperatures today. The main story this weekend will be the increasing heat as the ridge axis moves overhead. Triple digit heat is expected from Tucson westward and also in the upper Gila River Valley around Safford with upper 90's in the higher elevation valleys south and east of Tucson.
Severe storms ongoing across south central KS / northern OK likely pose the higher chance of spreading into the region later tonight, however a lack of storm coalescence thus far should favor more isolated coverage and lesser overnight duration.
Isolated convection has moved into the Rio Grande plains ahead of the weak short wave trough over northern Coahuila. The upper level ridge over northwest Mexico into the desert Southwest tonight will gradually move eastward to the Big Bend south into northern Mexico late Saturday night.
A ridge is building across the region bringing generally fair weather across the silver state for the next few days. A ridge is building across the region bringing a period of fair weather across the silver state. This ridge has already started a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week with temperatures very likely to go well above normal during the weekend.
High pressure will build over the area this weekend, resulting in a steady warming trend in temperatures. Some cooling is possible by midweek with the passage of a weak cold front.
A Pacific trough and warm front will spread moisture into our forecast area late tonight through Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today behind the warm front.
We've been enjoying much drier and quieter today, with the cold front bisecting WI and a much drier southwest wind taking hold for us this afternoon.
The big low pressure system has now lifted into southwest Manitoba.
/Issued 335 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022/ Large, dampening upper low pressure system will continue to be the dominate feature through the short term. Precip coverage has increased through the afternoon as the low pressure system keeps easterly flow over the area, ushering good low-level moisture into the state. Lows on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s, with temperatures returning to the low to mid 80s for the afternoon. Aloft, a longwave trough centered over the upper Great Plains will dig into the eastern CONUS thanks to pumping of upstream ridge.
428 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 Through Saturday: With the weather pattern featuring a large upper low over the southeast CONUS and an upper ridge to our west continuing to focus a persistent moisture convergence axis over the forecast area, we're seeing another round of strong to severe storms develop today. Large troughing and an area of low pressure just off the MS/AL coast will help initiate perturbed flow through the ArkLaMiss Saturday.
304 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Tightening low pressure system continues tracking northward across the Dakotas, with a decent cold frontal boundary digging to the southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Strong to high winds have been the highlights of the day with 60 plus mph wind gusts recorded at Bordeaux and Coleman where high wind warnings are currently in effect. Upper level flow is expected to remain quasi-zonal tomorrow before the upper level closed low is finally ejected out to the east with a more prominent upper level ridge approaching the Four Corners.
18z data has a pre-frontal trof running from southern Wisconsin into central Missouri. The main cold front ran from northwest Wisconsin back toward the KMKC area. Dew points either side of the pre-frontal trof were in the 60s with 40s and 50s behind the cold front. Based on satellite and radar trends convection should continue to quickly develop east of the Mississippi late this afternoon and push east this evening as the cold front sweeps through the area.
702 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 Stacked upper low continues to pull north early this evening bringing strong winds and isolated to scattered showers. Overall winds remain elevated enough to continue the High Wind Warning for the time being. Strong winds continue over our area in the wake of the low with winds gusting into the 60s over many locations. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, winds will eventually ease up as the low gradually scoots off towards the north-northeast and pressure gradient relaxes. Northwesterly flow with ridge to the west will keep quiet weather over our area to start the upcoming week, with near seasonal temperatures. Large upper low will continue to bring MVFR clouds and showers this evening, along with strong westerly winds.
/GG/ Through Saturday: With the weather pattern featuring a large upper low over the southeast CONUS and an upper ridge to our west continuing to focus a persistent moisture convergence axis over the forecast area, we're seeing another round of strong to severe storms develop today. Large troughing and an area of low pressure just off the MS/AL coast will help initiate perturbed flow through the ArkLaMiss Saturday.
950 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper level low along the SE US will drift slowly northward over the region through tonight, and will weaken into an open wave trough as it lifts northward into the mid-Atlantic Saturday night.
Much less winds is forecast over the weekend under the influence of high pressure, but smoke from area wildfires will spread out and impact more communities with poor air quality.
707 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 A cold front will approach the area later today. A cold front currently stretched from central Wisconsin southwestward into central Missouri will approach the area later this afternoon into evening. Upper-level flow remains weak going into the weekend with a blocking pattern still in place.
811 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Dropped the High Wind Warning as wind impacts are subsiding with the onset of weakening low level mixing.
228 PM PDT Fri May 13 2022 Warm weather settles in this weekend as high pressure builds across the region.
00Z upper air analysis places the Mid-South on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 70s west of the Mississippi River and 60s east.
758 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 The upper low will open and shift NE Saturday, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
822 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 A cold front will approach the area later today. A cold front currently stretched from central Wisconsin southwestward into central Missouri will approach the area later this afternoon into evening. Upper-level flow remains weak going into the weekend with a blocking pattern still in place.
534 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Moderate to strong zonal flow aloft will continue across the region through this evening, Very dry airmass place with gusts of 35-40 mph over the higher terrain, with gusts 25-30 mph over the northeast plains.
A warm front will move into the area late this afternoon and tonight bringing light to moderate rain to the coast and coastal mountains. The warm front will lift north Saturday morning with rain diminishing from south to north with some clearing.
545 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Tightening low pressure system continues tracking northward across the Dakotas, with a decent cold frontal boundary digging to the southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Strong to high winds have been the highlights of the day with 60 plus mph wind gusts recorded at Bordeaux and Coleman where high wind warnings are currently in effect. Upper level flow is expected to remain quasi-zonal tomorrow before the upper level closed low is finally ejected out to the east with a more prominent upper level ridge approaching the Four Corners.
Moderate to strong zonal flow aloft will continue across the region through this evening, Very dry airmass place with gusts of 35-40 mph over the higher terrain, with gusts 25-30 mph over the northeast plains.
Upper level low over northern and central Florida will continue to lift north away from the region tonight.
VFR conditions will prevail tonight into early Saturday as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and south Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. /issued 247 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Abnormally hot, breezy, and rain-free weather will prevail through the short-term period, courtesy of a potent 500 mb ridge centered over the southern tip of Baja California. At the surface, high pressure will continue to be parked over the central Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, providing moderate to breezy southeast winds, breeziest during the afternoon hours. Conditions Saturday will be nearly a carbon copy of today, with highs generally reaching the low-mid-90s east of I-69C to mid-upper-90s (and possibly lower 100s in Zapata and western Starr Counties) west of I-69C; partly/mostly cloudy skies will turn mostly sunny by the afternoon.
335 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Moderate to strong zonal flow aloft will continue across the region through this evening, Very dry airmass place with gusts of 35-40 mph over the higher terrain, with gusts 25-30 mph over the northeast plains.
222 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over eastern IL, as a weak cold front pushes through the area.
237 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper low overhead will open and shift NE today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
305 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf of Mexico slips to along the eastern seaboard late Sun as a ridge from northwest Mexico to the Four-Corners regions builds north as it eases to the east. weak high pressure sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico while Atlantic high pressures extends to the FL-NC coastal waters. with the higher coverage inland. Mon through Fri: The upper level trough continues over the area until midweek then is replaced by somewhat flat ridging moving in from the west. Atlantic high pressure builds in across FL to the Gulf of Mexico early in the week and resides in place.
Light rain showers are currently moving across the southern CWA as a sharp short wave trough rotates around the upper low that is now over Lake Manitoba. Temperatures today in the 50s and 60s with the cooler temperatures across the north with the higher cloud cover and light showers.
1146 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 A cold front will approach the area later today. A cold front currently stretched from central Wisconsin southwestward into central Missouri will approach the area later this afternoon into evening. Upper-level flow remains weak going into the weekend with a blocking pattern still in place.
Satellite imagery showed the low pressure system that brought the rain to our area yesterday hanging over the North Dakota/Canadian border while another upper low was moving across northern Montana. Snow levels will be above 8000 feet with just a few inches accumulation possible in the higher elevations.
The NAM/HRRR and other deterministic short term models have isolated convection developing in a region of surface mass convergence, isolated in nature over the west central counties by mid to late afternoon before tying into the warm front near the OK line in south central Kansas.
Expect a gradual increase in clouds throughout the day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
331 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An area of weakening low pressure will stall across the Southeast states today before finally dissipating this weekend.
236 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today bringing mountain showers this morning then afternoon and evening storms.
255 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper level low over the Carolinas will weaken into an open wave trough as it lifts northward into the mid-Atlantic this evening and tonight.
150 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper level low over the Carolinas will weaken into an open wave trough as it lifts northward into the mid-Atlantic this evening and tonight.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 64 87 63 86 / 30 30 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 62 85 61 83 / 40 40 40 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 82 62 85 61 83 / 40 40 40 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 58 82 58 79 / 60 50 60 20 50.
These storms could make their way eastward into western Oklahoma (again with some support from the low level jet) before dissipating.
331 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Summary: Generally cooler and dry-ish weather through the week. Thereâs a fair amount of shear (50+ kts) and CAPE (500 to 1000 J/kg) to work with, but dry air in the lower atmosphere will reduce precipitation amounts and the inverted V soundings will likely make the showers quite gusty. The WI side should miss out on the shower activity with the vort max lifting north into Canada and therefore will have lower humidity, less clouds, and warmer temperatures. With no significant forcing mechanisms for much of the forecast just expect blah weather with periods of light shower activity and cooler temperatures. Sunshine should be prevalent under weak high pressure.
Synoptic-scale flow attenuates with southward extent into the southern Great Plains, modulated by the sub-tropical ridge expanding across the eastern Pacific Ocean with a subsidence layer evident over the Desert Southwest into the southern Rocky Mountains.
Southerly low-level flow will push sfc dewpoints into the low to mid 60s, and partly to mostly sunny skies early in the day will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to max out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
956 PM PDT Fri May 13 2022 The next low pressure system will move into the Inland Northwest tonight into Saturday morning and spread light rain across much of the area with light snow possible for the mountain passes.
347 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 A cold front currently draped over central South Dakota will push into the forecast area this morning, turning the winds to out of the northwest. Soundings show dry low levels Saturday evening so do think that it will take some time to saturate the low levels before rain reaches the surface.
Otherwise once we mix out of the morning stratus/fog it looks to be a rather pleasant day today and somewhat limited pops given the dampened upper low and associated moisture field progged to be more northward.
Dropped the High Wind Warning as wind impacts are subsiding with the onset of weakening low level mixing.
Morning lows should be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low to middle 60s. The remnants of a cold front remain across the Midsouth along with numerous outflow boundaries from ongoing convection will likely serve as a focus for additional development today. High temperatures today should be in the low to middle 80s.
1153 PM PDT Fri May 13 2022 Well above normal temperatures this weekend as high pressure builds.
A warm front is causing light to moderate rain to the coast, coastal mountains, Douglas County and Cascades tonight. The warm front will lift north Saturday morning with rain diminishing from south to north with some clearing.
Upper trough will gradually weaken over forecast area during this period. Warming trend gets going Today with high temperatures in the lower-mid 80s, with some upper 80s possible in our western and southern counties.
141 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An area of weakening low pressure will drift southwest and farther inland tonight, stalling across the Southeast states before dissipating this weekend.
314 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Clouds and cooler, somewhat more comfortable conditions were observed across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this morning as a weak cold front traversed the area last evening. 2) Precip chances return tonight ahead of another cold front. [Discussion] Weak high pressure following the cold front from yesterday will be the primary influencer of our weather today. Expect PM highs in the low to mid 80s. There is a slight chance of a rain shower mainly late this afternoon ahead of a second cold front, but think the mixing of dry air will keep most precip free.
However, given the reports of small hail from thunderstorms the last couple of days, and the freezing level remaining fairly low, cannot rule out a more energetic storm having some small hail.
646 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Summary: Generally cooler and dry-ish weather through the week. Thereâs a fair amount of shear (50+ kts) and CAPE (500 to 1000 J/kg) to work with, but dry air in the lower atmosphere will reduce precipitation amounts and the inverted V soundings will likely make the showers quite gusty. The WI side should miss out on the shower activity with the vort max lifting north into Canada and therefore will have lower humidity, less clouds, and warmer temperatures. With no significant forcing mechanisms for much of the forecast just expect blah weather with periods of light shower activity and cooler temperatures. Sunshine should be prevalent under weak high pressure.
A cooling trend begins Sunday as the upper level ridge axis shifts inland and the marine layer and coastal stratus become more dominant.
Dry weather will persist through Sunday as an upper level ridge pops up across the Central Rockies. Temperatures on the plains will be a little cooler behind tonight's weak cold front, with highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s across the plains.
A strong ridge building into the desert southwest will push temperatures to around 10-15 degrees above average this weekend.
Synoptically the upper level ridge that had been in place across central Indiana continues to weaken as an upper level low pressure system tracks across the Dakotas and Southern Canada. At the surface a weak cold front stretches from southern Canada into the Upper Midwest down through Illinois which will slowly move to the east during the daytime hours today. The surface cold front from Saturday will become even more diffuse by Sunday which will allow for conditions to remain dry later in the afternoon due to the lack of a source for convective initiation.
544 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over eastern IL, as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A stronger cold front will bring more showers and storms to the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
907 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today bringing mountain showers this morning then afternoon and evening storms.
Today, ridging centered over Mexico noses into the area with high pressure at the surface. The majority of the area will stay dry today, however, a cold front will start moving into our northwestern counties this evening providing a focus point for some isolated storms to develop. Low pressure moving across the upper Midwest will provide enough upper level support to keep storms going through the day. They will move southeast along the aforementioned cold front, which stalled in northern MO Saturday night. The storms and cold front will help cool high temperatures for Sunday. They will range from the low 70s in northern MO to low 80s south of I-70.
Otherwise once we mix out of the morning stratus/fog it looks to be a rather pleasant day today and somewhat limited pops given the dampened upper low and associated moisture field progged to be more northward. Max temps today should be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 80s for most areas and Sunday a bit warmer with much of the area in the mid to upper 80s.
306 AM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, moving northeast of the region.
635 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 High temperatures are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the period, which translates into highs for most locations from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. We'll see a weak vort max and upper trough move across our forecast area Sunday morning bringing the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms, primarily across eastern zones.
/Today through Sunday/ Upper-low across the Carolinas to shift north today and open into an upper-trough resulting in continued subsident northerly flow across the ArkLaTex. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will support southerly winds around 5 to 10 mph today. Otherwise, upper-level ridge axis from central Texas through the ArkLaTex into the Mississippi and Alabama will maintain dry conditions through Sunday with highs forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s.
and Sunday Weak low pressure over far northeast Wisconsin at 4am will exit the area and take any showers with it. A cold front moving across the area during the late afternoon and evening could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, despite the relatively dry air. Sunday will be cooler, with increasing clouds in cyclonic upper flow.
Have opted slightly towards the lower end of the NBM distribution for temps through Sunday given the recent performance of blends/relatively persistent pattern. Inland highs will reach the lower to mid 90s through the end of the weekend with lows near 70 inland and in the mid 70s along the coast.
546 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper low overhead will open and shift NE today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
404 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 High temperatures are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the period, which translates into highs for most locations from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. We'll see a weak vort max and upper trough move across our forecast area Sunday morning bringing the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms, primarily across eastern zones.