Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low over NW Colorado has helped to tighten the pressure gradient across SE Arizona this afternoon resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Meanwhile, some cirroform clouds are passing through between the aforementioned upper low and a longwave upper ridge near the California coast. This ridge will flatten out over the next couple of days with dry west to northwest flow aloft continuing for us with above normal height and thicknesses, thus keeping temperatures well above normal.
1005 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Fairly quiet night across the region as high pressure east of the region gives us the one more quiet night. Ridging aloft is passing right over the area now, and starting to see some cirrus spill in from the west, as that ridge axis also moves eastward. Latest NAM/SREF both pick up on a couple of vortmax ripples along the western edge of that ridge. Closed upper low near the Utah/Colorado border will make its way east tonight, and the axis of an amplifying downstream ridge will shift east of Kentucky. By Wednesday evening, the stacked upper low will be located over eastern Kansas.
856 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Ridging aloft will all lows to trend a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last night, with readings in the lower 50s inland and mid 50s near the coast.
754 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore on Wednesday.
A rather vigorous upper-level low continues to spin across northwest Colorado late this afternoon w/ an excellent fetch of mid & high-level moisture focused into these areas within the northeast quadrant of the upper low. This already has occurred along the SD border and the Pine Ridge, as indicated/ confirmed by area webcams. Will need to keep an eye on fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon as current forecast min RHs drop below 20 percent with gusty westerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front Thursday night will drop temperatures back down into the 40s and 50s.
Sufficient lift ahead of the system will result in diurnally induced convection later this afternoon aided by a weakening 5H vort lobe swinging around the base of the low and into central KY by 07/18Z. An occluded low pressure system will be over the Midwest Thursday. The upper low rotates NNE from Missouri across western Illinois toward Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday night. A weakening north- south band of showers will be in the vicinity of the I-65 corridor at 12z Thu, coincident with the LLJ/deep moisture axis ahead of the cold front.
320 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 It will be a Summer like day today as the area will be fully in the warm sector behind a warm front currently across north central lower Michigan and under the upper level ridge axis. With plenty of sunshine temperatures will reach around 80 most locations but considerably cooler along and near the shoreline in the Thumb with an onshore breeze.
Expect mostly clear skies tonight, with frosty conditions possible in the valleys of the West Side, and freezing conditions likely in portions of the Illinois, Applegate, and Rogue Valleys. Two weak fronts are expected over the next several days, and though each will bring some breezy winds and slightly cooler temperatures to the region, little precipitation is expected.
1244 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday night. A weak, slow moving cold front will stall to our west late week then advance across the region late weekend. Wednesday: High pressure will shift offshore while the ridge aloft shifts over the southeastern states. Subsidence and drier air from the ridging aloft will allow temperatures to once again climb into the 80s (slightly cooler at coastal locations). Thursday: High pressure will continue to shift offshore while a cold front extending from a low pressure system located over the Central Plains stalls to our west. High temperatures will reach into the low 80s away from the beaches, where it will be a few degrees cooler.
Radiational cooling will allow the mild temperatures to fall rapidly into the upper 20s to upper 30s--warmer than last night but only by 3-5 degrees.
Depending on your flavor of CAM, expect convection to pop near northeast-north central Kansas, close to the intersection of the modest dry line and cold front one to two hours before sunset, around 5 PM CDT. This is primarily due to the southeast dig of the 500mb trough along the KS/OK border. If the swath of boundary layer WAA just ahead of the low into northern Missouri develops, enough instability could form in combo near the low center and southward along the surface front to spark convection across central Missouri into southern Iowa. The parent upper trough will not exit the region until Thursday evening. This will keep the region under northwest flow aloft and enough moisture for showers and isolated thunder as the low remains generally filled in through its exit east.
VFR conditions will continue overnight under high pressure. On Wednesday, staying VFR and south winds will increase with gusts around 20KT as a cold front approaches.
338 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through the end of the week, with gradually warming temperatures and increasing humidity.
Rain chances return Thursday as a low pressure system approaches the region. High pressure will continue to dominate across the Ohio River Valley today. Rain and the chance for some thunderstorms returns Thursday as a trough in the Great Plains advances east into the Midwest. Rain showers will continue to advance through the region Thursday night as the low pressure system pivots and tracks north, just west of the Great Lakes.
336 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 A mid/upper low over the TX/OK Panhandle region will lift to southern Lake Michigan through Thursday. Temperatures will sneak into the 70s for one more day, generally along and east of Interstate 35 as a warm front lifts into the southeastern portion of the area.
112 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure builds over the area Wednesday and Thursday, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the Midwest.
246 AM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Upper low over northeast CO is moving slowly into NE/KS, but there remains some light snow in far southern Carter County. Satellite imagery shows the next trof to impact us dropping along the northern British Columbia coast. This trof and an associated cold front (with a period of strong synoptic scale forcing) will bring rain to snow showers beginning around midday Thursday in our west and tracking eastward thereafter.
934 PM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 A Pacific Northwest low will exit the area this afternoon, resulting in cooler temperatures and lingering showers in its wake. High pressure will return by Wednesday, resulting in dry conditions as temperatures remain mild.
240 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 An upper low will move slowly east across Kansas today. Thursday, wrap around showers will be possible mainly from southern IL into southwest IN as the upper low ends up over western IL by Thursday evening.
345 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure builds over the area through Thursday, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the Midwest.
Winds will remain breezy out of the north today, diminishing across central SD on Thursday as the low pulls east. Min RH will fall to right around 20 percent this afternoon depending on how warm the high climbs as the clouds clear. A low pressure system over Wisconsin Thursday night will continue spreading pcpn into the far eastern portion of the CWA.
300 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will hold over the region into Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front may trickle into the NE part of NC late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, but will return north as a warm front Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will track from the Midwest to the Great Lakes mid to late week.
1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Right now the main focus is monitoring conditions over the next few hours with convection expected to begin to develop along and ahead of the sfc cold front here shortly. At the upper levels the current closed low is expected to pass through KS by Thursday afternoon and deepen as it goes.
Ridging surface and aloft is producing mostly clear sky and calm/light winds. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 59 76 56 76 / 10 50 70 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 58 75 55 75 / 10 30 60 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 80 57 75 55 75 / 10 30 60 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 52 75 53 75 / 10 10 50 20 30.
With the low so close by, the surface pressure gradient will remain elevated leading to wind gusts up to 35 mph in SD/NE, weakening to 15-25 mph for areas in NW IA and SW MN.
A good ridge valley temperature split is already setting up around the area, with our deepest and normally cooler valleys showing the biggest differences. Clearing will allow for another night of cooler valley temps, and possibly some patchy fog in areas that have a source of water, i.
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Short term (Today and Thursday): Deep ridging will persist resulting in quiet weather across the region.
139 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front trails from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
Temperatures will trend seasonably cooler with periods of rain from late week into the weekend. Temperatures are on track to bottom out from the mid 40s over the Middle Susq Valley, to the low 50s over the Laurel Highlands and SC Mtns. Otherwise, upper ridging building into the region should supply a partly to mostly sunny and warm Wednesday. Any isolated showers over the central mountains should die with loss of heating around sunset, then mild and dry conditions are anticipated the rest of the night under 500mb ridge.
410 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure crosses today.
149 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore today.
337 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore this afternoon.
It will be cloudy today under the upper low that will be crossing southwest Kansas during the day.
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states with a weak stationary front across the area. Another area of low pressure approaches from the west later in the week. Otherwise, partly cloudy with high temps in the lower 80s inland and much cooler at the coast, especially at Ocean City where temps may struggle to reach 60 with onshore flow most of the day. Slightly cooler on Thursday with increasing clouds and stronger onshore flow due to the high from New England ridging down the Atlantic coast.
Tonight Through Thursday Satellite imagery and upper air analysis were indicating a very vigorous upper level low pressure system over southern NE/northwest KS. Precipitation will rapidly taper off across the forecast area from west to east mainly before midnight Wednesday night as the lagging cold front exits the state to the east. As the precipitation generally ends Wednesday night, clouds will be on the decrease over the south, but will remain over the northern areas as the aforementioned strong low pressure system passes by to our north. Clouds will dissipate throughout the day on Thursday from southwest to northeast as high pressure builds over AR and drier air makes its way in. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be a bit higher over the southern third of the forecast area due to increased sunshine and building high pressure.
(Today and tonight) A fast moving cold front will continue to push across the remainder of Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning. The upper low will move slowly across Kansas today.
Omega block amplifies over the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night. High amplitude ridging overhead and continued SSE flow will pave the way for another day of dry conditions and well above average temperatures on Thursday. Deep closed low still looks to cross the mid Mississippi valley Thursday before gradually occluding and ejecting northeastward.
Rain chances return Thursday as a low pressure system approaches the region. Previous Discussion: Quiet weather will continue under high pressure. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 50s across most of the region, which is 15-20 degrees above climatological average. The ridge will build over the Upper Ohio River Valley Wednesday in response to a deepening low over the Central Plains, promoting continued dry and seasonable warm weather for the region.
Temperatures will trend seasonably cooler with periods of rain from late week into the weekend. Temperatures are on track to bottom out from the mid 40s over the Middle Susq Valley, to the low 50s over the Laurel Highlands and SC Mtns. Otherwise, upper ridging building into the region should supply a partly to mostly sunny and warm Wednesday. Any isolated showers over the central mountains should die with loss of heating around sunset, then mild and dry conditions are anticipated the rest of tonight under 500mb ridge. High pressure building south from New England should ensure fair weather Thursday. However, the resulting southeast flow off of the Atlantic should result in a slightly cooler day than those recently with highs between 65-70F.
259 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Upper Low Trundles Closer Bringing Increasing Rain Chances - Negative Tilt Upper Trough with Cyclogenesis for the Weekend - Upper Low Trundles Closer Bringing Increasing Rain Chances We expect some diurnal enhancement of shower and thunderstorms this afternoon as the upper low over Kansas slowly shifts east and heights begin to fall across our area. This trend continues tonight into Thursday as the low moves into Wisconsin with an area of rain and embedded thunder still expected to move into Lower Michigan from the southwest on Thursday.
342 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure crosses today.
Southerly winds will increase quickly after sunrise especially across the Mississippi Delta ahead of an approaching low pressure system. An upper level low pressure system will continue to dig across the Central Plains today and will move into the mid Mississippi River Valley late tonight. With the upper low expected to track along the I-70 corridor in Missouri, wrap around showers associated with the upper low could skirt locations near the MO/AR and KY/TN borders.
This activity was located out ahead of an area of low pressure and surface front, with good low level jet dynamics of 40-60kts. The upper low should begin to push into west central MO during the evening hours and into central MO during the overnight. Some moisture is expected to wrap around the low with some potential lingering low QPF showers over central MO, but the remainder of the CWA should be dry after this afternoon's convection. With an upper level ridge along the east coast, the area of low pressure will become more vertically stacked and slowly drift northward into the western Great Lakes region. Some wrap around moisture and energy along the southern edge of the low will potentially continue the shower chances over central MO on Thursday. Highs will be cooler with readings in the 50s and 60s for Thursday.
323 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure building south from Eastern Canada will control our weather into the weekend. Temperatures associated with this high will moderate to above normal levels over many inland locations.
1018 PM PDT Tue Apr 6 2021 The arrival of a cold front Wednesday afternoon will produce gusty southwest winds across the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and the Palouse.
An inverted trough extending extended all the way to the western Great Lakes region. Expect convecting expect an increase in areal coverage this evening with the approach of a cold front from the west. Combination of vort energy running down backside of exiting upper low and isentropic upglide will mean post-front precip will remain possible through at least Thursday evening until the system pushes across the mid MS valley.
Attention then turns to a 16-22Z window later today as another round of conditional thunderstorm development is possible along and ahead of a cold front sweeping through west to east across the CWA. Upper trough is projected to occlude and be nearly vertically stacked over the Missouri River by late Thursday.
1114 PM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Humidities have recovered in this cooler environment today though windy conditions will continue through sunset. Models were consistent in shifting the low eastward tonight with its center moving over central Kansas by sunrise Wednesday. Clearing over eastern Utah and westernmost Colorado combined with light winds favor strong radiational cooling and expect a number of lower elevation areas will experience freezing temperatures. Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts along the higher ridgelines. A transitory, shallow mid-level ridge moves overhead on Wednesday into Wednesday night which will bring decreasing mountain cloud cover and sunny skies elsewhere.
357 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front trailed from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
Temperatures are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees and dewpoints are in the lower 60s, leading to a pleasant morning. The remainder of the week will be mostly quiet with an area of high pressure is currently sitting off the near the east coast central Florida dominating our weather.
With the increasing low level jet, showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly expand southward along the cold front just west of the I-35 corridor.
Stout mid level ridge across the Great Lakes and wrn OH valley will giveway to deepening upper low over ern KS as it turns into wrn MO by Wednesday afternoon. Leading arc of pre-frontal forcing as better low level moisture advection may spark a few shra/tsra across a portion of nrn IN by mid aftn within overlapping forcing/theta-e ridge as indicated in some cam solutions.
228 AM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 At this time the closed low is pushing into Kansas with increasing subsidence behind it. Temperatures will start a gradual rebound today with highs in the lower to mid 60s for the Denver metro and eastern plains with 30s and 40s in the high country. For tonight, the gradient will continue to weaken as the low pushes well east with winds diminishing. Roller coaster week ahead for Colorado with a disturbance about every other day to provide for cooler temperatures and windy conditions. On Thursday there will be a weak ridge of high pressure over Colorado with a moderate northwest flow aloft. Expect dry conditions and warmer temperatures as 700 mb readings rise to around +4C at Denver.
200 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 An upper low will move slowly east across Kansas today. Thursday, wrap around showers will be possible mainly from southern IL into southwest IN as the upper low ends up over western IL by Thursday evening.
242 AM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Current surface map places low along the NE/IA border with associated upper low moving into western Kansas.
Closed upper low moving into the central plains this morning, will push slowly east today/tonight, then up into OH valley on Thu. Once this pcpn moves east, it will not be the end with the main cold front hanging way back. But during that period, a secondary closed upper low will spin down into northern plains and SFC wave will form along the cold front. This SFC wave will move just to our west early Sat morning, with the cold front later in the day. This will bring another round of widespread showers/storms to the area starting late Fri night, lasting at least into Sat evening, until the trailing upper trough passes. VFR conditions will continue overnight under high pressure. On Wednesday, staying VFR and south winds will increase with gusts around 20KT as a cold front approaches.
Fairly quiet night across the region as high pressure east of the region gives us the one more quiet night. Ridging aloft is passing right over the area now, and starting to see some cirrus spill in from the west, as that ridge axis also moves eastward. Latest NAM/SREF both pick up on a couple of vortmax ripples along the western edge of that ridge. Closed upper low near the Utah/Colorado border will make its way east tonight, and the axis of an amplifying downstream ridge will shift east of Kentucky. By Wednesday evening, the stacked upper low will be located over eastern Kansas. Thursday afternoon max temps are not expected to be as drastically warm, but will still be a few degrees above climo with thermometers likely to reach the low 70s.
Upper low pressure system and cold front will bring storms mainly to NW AR this morning into early afternoon. Low VFR to high end MVFR cigs will sweep across NE OK and far NW AR by this evening in the wrap- around on the back side of the upper low. With the increasing low level jet, showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly expand southward along the cold front just west of the I-35 corridor.
710 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Periods of showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected for the next several days as an area of low pressure slowly moves across the region.
Initially, some guidance including the RAP/HRRR suggest a deeply mixed airmass and relatively high LCLs may help to mitigate the tornado risk, but expect this threat to increase as we go into the evening when the low level jet/moisture transport and ascent are expected to peak for areas generally along/west of the I-55 corridor.
856 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Deep layer ridging and dry conditions will result in continued, benign sensible weather. High pressure will prevail resulting in generally benign boating conditions through mid week.
515 AM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure builds over the area through Thursday, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the Midwest.
Active weather looks to continue through the short term period as the upper low, responsible for the thunderstorms, will slowly progress across the state through the day today. Short term guidance continues to shift the trough axis into western Missouri, minimizing the potential for severe storms across eastern Kansas. Showers will continue to persist across the region into Thursday as the upper low slowly progresses northeastward.
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 A departing closed upper low over the central Plains states in southern Kansas will create strong northwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph or higher and gusts as high as 55 mph on the backside of the upper low as subsidence prevails. The stronger winds should remain north of the Panhandles and the winds should gradually diminish during the day today as the upper low moves further east away from the forecast area and the gradient relaxes. Cooler and dry conditions through the end of the week with another reinforcing cold front forecast Thursday night.
A quiet pattern is in place with upper level ridging over the area with scattered high clouds, mainly over the northern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures in those areas are mild as a result, about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
This pattern of temperatures, winds, and stratus is expected through the end of the week as weak ridging persists over our CWA.
Guidance is still on track with strong radiational cooling across lower elevations, resulting in subfreezing temperatures for many of these regions under clear conditions. One trouble spot this morning has been the I-70 corridor from Rifle to New Castle, where low stratus clouds spilling through may inhibit lows from dipping below freezing. Meanwhile, yesterday's low pressure system continues to shift east, allowing dry northwest flow to infiltrate the region. Overnight lows will moderate overnight, thanks to warm air advection in place, and continue warming into Thursday as a weak ridge ripples over the Divide. Persistently dry and warm conditions maintain a deep invert-V forecast sounding for many of the lower valleys across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The trough will push a cold front through the area and bring precipitation chances to the northern mountains.
Winds should ease down Thursday as slightly cooler temperatures in west-central NV relax the thermal gradient some.