Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The flow will become more zonal with some weak ridging trying to build into the area toward the end of the week. Upper level ridging will continue building through the weekend as moisture begins returning to the region. High pressure continuing to give us clear skies and calm winds at night. Ridge does not look to weaken for the next few days. With plenty of sunshine and more moisture than yesterday, temperatures should warm up to the low 70s. This will also bring about warmer temperatures, with lows in the upper 40s Wednesday night.
1016 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2020 Moderate instability and moisture over our SW CWA has kept clouds in place through the day and limited sunshine and hence temperatures are a bit cooler than expected. Modest ascent coming from a wave that was a closed low to our West earlier today on the H500 hand analysis map. Overnight lows to be near the same trend though the dry air snow up high will keep the some of the high valleys and usual sinks on the cool side of normal.
Went on the higher end of guidance today (90th percentile) which is near or just slightly below highs from yesterday.
108 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure settles in for the rest of the week and through the weekend, with a gradual warming trend. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
In the low levels a south flow will prevail along with a gradual increase in dew points through Thursday.
The flow will become more zonal with some weak ridging trying to build into the area toward the end of the week. Upper level ridging will continue building through the weekend as moisture begins returning to the region. High pressure will continue dominating the region keeping clear skies and light winds in place. Temperatures have begun dropping quickly with sunset however with dewpoints several degrees higher than yesterday overnight lows will be a couple degrees warmer. Expect low temperatures generally in the mid 30s and warmer along lake shores.
210 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure continues to dominate the region this morning.
Another clear, quiet night with high pressure in control. As we head into the evening hours, upper ridging will become more zonal.
An upper level trough will move through the Southern Plains today resulting in increased mid and high cloud beginning later today and persisting into Thursday. Some weakness in the ridging aloft is expected on Thu as a weak upper low develops over Texas, but the only sensible wx impact will be an increase in cloud cover.
Dewpoint temperatures are coming between the lower 30s to lower 40s for a pleasant afternoon across South Central Texas.
1058 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Unseasonably warm conditions were observed over the region today in response to an upper level ridge of high pressure that was translating across the nations midsection. Mild and quiet weather is expected tonight with overnight lows ranging from the middle 40s to the low 50s. A weak upper level short wave trough will shift over the area Wednesday into Thursday.
Satellite imagery this afternoon was showing the large scale pattern has altered a bit over the western CONUS going from a ridge to near zonal flow over the northern tier states. At the surface, a trough cutting through the central Plains extending into low pressure in southern Manitoba.
A weak short wave trough will approach the region today, maintaining ample southwest low level flow and keeping unseasonably warm temperatures spread across the region. Expect highs in the lower 70s along with breezy southwest winds, gusting 15 to 25 mph from late morning through the afternoon. Steep ridging will set up through Thursday, building off the Trans Pecos and across the southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
Will open the near term period with an upper level trof draped over the southeast US while an upper ridge was centered over south TX and northeast MX. The eastern nose of a mid-level ridge of high pressure and a continuation in the deep layer dry air through Wednesday night keeps the local weather pattern quiet through the middle of the week. Under sunny skies Wednesday, highs reach the lower to middle 70's across the region.
1200 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Warmer temperatures will continue to arrive through the upcoming week with highs in the 60s and eventually even some 70s heading towards the weekend.
A ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide benign weather to our neck of the woods in the short-term with prevailing southerly winds and dry weather. A large area of high pressure covers much of the southeast U. Not much change is expected in the weather pattern for the next few days as high pressure remains over much of the eastern U. Temperatures tonight will be milder than the past couple of evenings with lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 40s. Wednesday will see temperatures a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the lower 70s.
1240 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will become centered off the coast later today through the weekend.
Breezes may slacken somewhat Thursday and Thursday night as a warm frontal boundary pivots through the Keys, bringing wetter weather.
Yesterday continued the trend of temperatures easily exceeding the high end of the guidance range, while dewpoints were lower than most guidance.
1248 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure settles in for the rest of the week and into the weekend. However, the low-level airmass will be quite dry and only clouds are expected with this feature.
Geopotential heights will slightly increase accordingly, causing temperatures tomorrow to be about 12-14 deg F above the climatological norms with highs in the lower 80s area-wide.
For those voting for the rest of the week staying the same as today, you'll get your wish, as the widespread high pressure covering the Midwest will continue to bring sunshine and southwest winds for days to come. This wind will be sufficient to keep us from dropping as cool as last night, and lows are forecast in the mid to upper 40s, with valley sites possibly dropping to the lower 40s.
This AM, although weakened, surface ridging extends from Texas, across the Deep South, and up the Atlantic Seaboard.
Models in pretty good agreement shifting the 850mb thermal trough eastward, with 850mb temps about 3 degrees cooler.
232 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2020 A weak wave aloft will veer flow to the northwest and push some slightly cooler mid level air over the area today.
The short wave will begin to deepen which will build the upper level ridging into the southeast.
/issued 414 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure persists and continues to keep Deep South Texas dry and near normal through the short term period.
Mostly clear or clear skies prevailed with a modest surface gradient between a ridge over western CO and trough to the north. A upper ridge develops over the Four Corners Thursday with an axis to the northeast. A closed upper low and associated trough will approach the Pacific coast late Thursday with the flow aloft becoming southwest.
In addition, a coastal trough will develop offshore this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate, with highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the 70s areawide.
As the high's center shifts east through today, increasing warm advection in SW'ly flow will boost afternoon high temperatures into the 60s.
An upper level trough will move from the Four Corners Region southeast into Texas today and tonight. We don't expect to see any precipitation with this trough, but there will be an increase in mid/upper level clouds across the area. South winds at the surface ahead of the trough will also help draw moisture northward into the area, resulting in more humid conditions across the area. Tonight, expect the southerly flow to continue at the low levels, maintaining or increasing low level moisture, and resulting in another night of generally warmer than normal lows.
High pressure centered over the Eastern CONUS will lead to VFR conditions through period with gusty afternoon winds. High pressure will continue gusty easterly flow through the weekend with boating conditions varying from caution to advisory levels.
A question will be the persistence of the higher gusts and where they overlap with the lowest RH values.
620 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains set up to our east and weak southerly flow at the surface. The heights will rise slightly today, with relatively weak ridging across the southeast US. Before this, the eastern valleys will decouple once again and lead to 10 degree ridge/valley temperatures splits by Thursday morning. These high clouds will stick around on Thursday, with even some heights falls noted as the mid-level trough pushing east.
High pressure continues to dominate the region this morning.
A shrtwv trof moving e across the area today will favor a w-sw wind 10 mph or this afternoon. Otherwise a few high clouds assocd with said trof can be expected. /issued 357 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/ Current wv imagery shows a subtle shrtwv trof passing thru N AZ. As it does so, a sfc trof will set up across the TX/NM line causing sfc winds to shift out of the WSW. The shrtwv trof will then track into E TX early Thursday morning and drag a weak front into the area. The front will do little to cool temperatures however, as high pressure aloft quickly builds over the region. In fact, highs tomorrow will be very similar to today's in the low to mid 80s.
915 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will remain over the southeastern United States through the end of the week, resulting in dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Skies remain clear and high pressure will continue to shift offshore. Light southeasterly flow should help highs to reach 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday's values. Overnight lows will also be a few ticks warmer, generally in the low/mid 40s. The ridge will continue migrating offshore on Thursday, although the weather will remain dry and quiet.
Then, this evening, a cold front moves through bringing northerly winds to the area. /issued 145 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/ Texas continues to be under the influence of upper level high pressure early this morning with ridging extending well into northern Canada. This feature will pass overhead this afternoon and as it moves east of the area on Thursday, ridging will become re- established over the desert southwest for a short period until the next significant storm system dives southward along the west coast this weekend.
628 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure centered over the Eastern CONUS will lead to VFR conditions through period with gusty afternoon winds. High pressure will ridge across the area through the end of the week, with moisture returning on Thursday afternoon and winds staying gusty to breezy with the tight pressure gradient between the high pressure to the N/NE and the low pressure over the western Caribbean with Hurricane Eta.
420 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2020 A weak upper-level low pressure center will continue to deamplify and shift east of the divide this Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the southern Rockies overnight and into Thursday.
No doubt we maintain NW or W flow above the freezing mark, as a short wave trough will be arriving in this mid-level flow during our short term period. Overall, despite the warmer start this morning, our highs look to be on course for a persistant mostly sunny forecast with mid 70s again. Then slightly cooler for Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and of course the lowering heights aloft as the mid level ridge moves E with the advancing short wave.
357 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 An upper trough will move through British Columbia and Alberta Canada and into the Pacific Northwest through Thursday.
522 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 An upper trough will move through British Columbia and Alberta Canada and into the Pacific Northwest through Thursday.
The ascent ahead this H5 trough will cause the cloud cover to increase with inadequate moisture within the lower atmosphere for any precip. If there is more insolation across the eastern counties, then highs may be a few degrees warmer. Tonight as the southern stream H5 trough passes east into MO and eastern OK a weak surface front will shift southeast into the northern counties of the CWA late Tonight. The temperatures are not much cooler behind the front, so the northern counties may see overnight lows in the lower 40s with mid 40 to upper 40s across the remainder of the CWA. Highs on Thursday may be a few degrees cooler with an light northeast wind that will back to the southeast by evening.
543 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will stretch from the Northeast U. Look for a chilly start to the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s throughout parts of the Susq Valley to the low 40s on the higher terrain of western PA (where a light southerly breeze occurred through the overnight). Low dewpoints mainly in the 20s has inhibited the formation of river valley fog, but the calmer and cooler portions of the Lower Susq are most likely to see patchy valley fog for an hour or two either side of daybreak. Min temps will be 5-10F warmer early Thursday throughout the Central and Eastern Valleys, while similar low temps to this Wed morning will be found across the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands. Perhaps a few deg F warmer in some spots though.
627 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure settles in for the rest of the week and through the weekend, with a gradual warming trend. A little cooler than forecast currently warranted tweaking down numbers tonight, especially in the typical colder locales. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
Modest pressure rises in the wake of the trof will bring locally breezy conds, mainly to nwrn SD. As the trof passes, increased mid-to-upper moisture content evident on WV will lead to more cloudiness than prior days.
All clear this morning across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure continuing to promote tranquil weather. Some slightly higher boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s) will keep temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than last night, which will likely prevent any frost issues this morning. As a result, we can expect even milder temperatures tonight and a slightly cooler day tomorrow.
As an upper trough approaches from the west, some clouds will move in overnight.
405 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Today, an upper-level ridge will migrate east of the Midwest as an upper-level trough reaches the Central Plains, allowing south- southwesterly low-level flow to persist throughout the day and upper- level clouds to increase during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will pass over the forecast area early on Thursday; however, weak ascent and PW only rising to around 0. High temps Thursday may be a few degrees cooler than today with 850-hPa temps falling to around 12C beneath the trough, but will again reach 10 to 20F above average. Skies will clear during the afternoon as mid-level heights rise with the trough exiting the Midwest and arrival of an amplifying upper-level ridge into the central U.
The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains set up to our east and weak southerly flow at the surface. The heights will rise slightly today, with relatively weak ridging across the southeast US. Before this, the eastern valleys will decouple once again and lead to 10 degree ridge/valley temperatures splits by Thursday morning. These high clouds will stick around on Thursday, with even some heights falls noted as the mid-level trough pushing east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure persists and continues to keep Deep South Texas dry and near normal through the short term period.
530 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Today, an upper-level ridge will migrate east of the Midwest as an upper-level trough reaches the Central Plains, allowing south- southwesterly low-level flow to persist throughout the day and upper- level clouds to increase during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will pass over the forecast area early on Thursday; however, weak ascent and PW only rising to around 0. High temps Thursday may be a few degrees cooler than today with 850-hPa temps falling to around 12C beneath the trough, but will again reach 10 to 20F above average. Skies will clear during the afternoon as mid-level heights rise with the trough exiting the Midwest and arrival of an amplifying upper-level ridge into the central U.
Quiet weather will continue during the short term period with high pressure in place in the mid levels.
357 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Current wv imagery shows a subtle shrtwv trof passing thru N AZ. As it does so, a sfc trof will set up across the TX/NM line causing sfc winds to shift out of the WSW. The shrtwv trof will then track into E TX early Thursday morning and drag a weak front into the area. The front will do little to cool temperatures however, as high pressure aloft quickly builds over the region. In fact, highs tomorrow will be very similar to today's in the low to mid 80s.
715 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will stretch from the Northeast U. Look for a chilly start to the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s throughout parts of the Susq Valley to the low 40s on the higher terrain of western PA (where a light southerly breeze occurred through the overnight). Low dewpoints mainly in the 20s has inhibited the formation of river valley fog, but the calmer and cooler portions of the Lower Susq are most likely to see patchy valley fog for an hour or two either side of daybreak. Min temps will be 5-10F warmer early Thursday throughout the Central and Eastern Valleys, while similar low temps to this Wed morning will be found across the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands. Perhaps a few deg F warmer in some spots though.
410 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2020 A weak upper-level low pressure center will continue to deamplify and shift east of the divide this Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the southern Rockies overnight and into Thursday.
457 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will ridge across the area through the end of the week, with moisture returning on Thursday afternoon and winds staying gusty to breezy with the tight pressure gradient between the high pressure to the N/NE and the low pressure over the western Caribbean with Hurricane Eta.
A cold front will move in from the north tonight with a wind shift to follow at terminals while remaining breezy at the surface. /issued 145 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/ Texas continues to be under the influence of upper level high pressure early this morning with ridging extending well into northern Canada. This feature will pass overhead this afternoon and as it moves east of the area on Thursday, ridging will become re- established over the desert southwest for a short period until the next significant storm system dives southward along the west coast this weekend.
A weakness in the upper level ridging aloft will move through the area on Thursday.
Forecast in the short term will continue to side warmer with daytime temps vs the NBM numbers. By the weekend, a deep longwave trough sets up over the western U. Also expect stronger south winds ahead of the approaching system and associated cold front.
9" of available moisture over east central FL, which is mostly concentrated in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
358 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will stretch from the Northeast U. Clear skies and a building high pressure area have brought lowering dewpoints and highs racing into the 60s today across central PA.
1011 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. Meanwhile, dry westerly flow aloft will gradually give way to a subtropical ridge building across the eastern U. Temperatures will be notably warmer today with highs in the 60s to even near 70 in the Piedmont, with 50s in the western mountains. An upper level ridge is expected to develop over our region, all while a trough deepens across the Four Corners region.
1027 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Today, an upper-level ridge will migrate east of the Midwest as an upper-level trough reaches the Central Plains, allowing south- southwesterly low-level flow to persist throughout the day and upper- level clouds to increase during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will pass over the forecast area early on Thursday; however, weak ascent and PW only rising to around 0. High temps Thursday may be a few degrees cooler than today with 850-hPa temps falling to around 12C beneath the trough, but will again reach 10 to 20F above average. Skies will clear during the afternoon as mid-level heights rise with the trough exiting the Midwest and arrival of an amplifying upper-level ridge into the central U.
1225 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region will persist through the end of the week. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region and Low pressure over southern Manitoba will keep a tighter pressure gradient across the region into tonight. Highs this afternoon will range from the the lower 60's across inland NW PA to the lower 70's across NW OH. The extra cloud cover tonight and winds remaining in the 5 to 12 mph range will keep the region slightly warmer overnight. Lows should range from the lower/mid 40's to around 50.
A band of warmer temperatures this morning along the foothills in downslope areas blended in from observations and are ahead of the diurnal curve.
Ridging aloft continues to shift east, resulting in slightly warmer conditions but still pleasant. Scattered mid to high clouds are beginning to creep in from western Texas in response to an approaching weak upper level trough. This upper low will continue to move eastward into our region tonight, lingering into the weekend. With a warmer and slightly humid airmass in place, highs will mainly range from the mid to upper 70s.
115 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. Big bubble, no trouble: high pressure remains situated over the region today and lasts through the weekend. Tonight, increasing dewpoints and the persistent high should work together to bring slightly warmer conditions, taking any risk of frost out of the east.
A weak upper ridge builds over the area through Thursday ahead of an upstream trough digging across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure ridging from the western Atlantic into the southeastern states maintains an east to northeast flow across the region. Lows tonight dip into the low 50s inland and the upper 50s to around 60 closer to the coast.
1157 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure settles in for the rest of the week and through the weekend, with a gradual warming trend. A little cooler than forecast currently warranted tweaking down numbers tonight, especially in the typical colder locales. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
MIMIC TPW loops, surface observations, and visible/IR satellite imagery highlight a warm frontal boundary over the Bahamas, stretching west-southwest across central Cuba. Breezes may slacken somewhat Thursday and Thursday night as a warm frontal boundary pivots through the Keys, bringing wetter weather.
A few cirrus clouds have moved into the Devils Lake Basin but won't have much of an affect on the warmth with readings already in the low 50s. A question will be the persistence of the higher gusts and where they overlap with the lowest RH values.
VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. /issued 414 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure persists and continues to keep Deep South Texas dry and near normal through the short term period.