Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The chance of showers will continue on Wednesday as this front lifts northward as a warm front. Much warmer temperatures can be expected on Wednesday as the wind becomes southeasterly in the afternoon and the low level cloud cover begins to breaks up as well. GKS The showers should lift north of our forecast area by late Wednesday night as the warm front lifts north of our area.
639 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week. An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the southeastern states.
Morning surface analysis had a 1019-1020mb ridge axis across our CWA from the northeast. This combined with the mid level ridge axis across our CWA from the east will help provide another warmer than normal and dry day for our area. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure aloft and at the surface remain in place across the region. Otherwise, lows will again fall into the low and middle 60s.
908 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Similar to yesterday at this time high pressure along and offshore the eastern seaboard combined with a broad area of low pressure over western Cuba and the southeastern Gulf is supporting a breezy easterly wind flow over the forecast area this morning. A 5-6MB gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure across the Caribbean and southeastern Gulf is maintaining a breezy easterly wind flow across the Gulf waters this morning with east winds around 20 knots being observed.
943 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week. An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the southeastern states.
956 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 The combination of high pressure extending down the eastern seaboard and low pressure associated with a westward moving tropical wave in the Caribbean has resulted in a fairly tight pressure gradient over the area. However, the higher winds seem to be contained along the lower Keys and nearshore waters, tapering off several knots over the middle and upper Keys. CIMSS MIMIC imagery displays a wide swath of PWATs over 2 inches covering the Florida Straits and Gulf waters west of the Keys, but mid and upper level drier air is beginning to push into the region from the northeast along the base of the ridge.
This will also keep the tap of high level mositure and periods of thicker high cloudiness flowing and bring a challenge to the high temperature forecast. My forecast was a bit optimistic across the northeast zones by 5 or so degrees due to the cirrus and will lead these back toward the lower end of guidance again today. That almost guarantees thinner cloud cover and warmer temperatures. The stronger winds aloft will retreat a bit northward but mid level winds be in the increase as a trough moves in upstream. Localized critical fire weather are more probable on the more exposed ridges but confidence not high enough for widespread conditions to issue headlines attm. The boost in winds and sunshine should push temperatures back toward the warmer side of guidance on Wednesday.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 56 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 53 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 53 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 52 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Snow accumulation has been minimal so far for the lower elevations, with temperatures still in the mid to upper 30s keeping more rainfall around BYG currently. It will also bring a weak cold front down to the continental divide today, with areas north of the divide about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday. With the front remaining to the north, temperatures will again reach the lower 60s. The front washes out overnight tonight, allowing warmer air to return to central WY for the day Wednesday. This will bring us to our last 60 degree day for a while, before the bottom falls out The northwest flow will continue to bring light precipitation to the far NW portions of the state again Wednesday, with minimal accumulations possible in the highest elevations.
/19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure aloft and at the surface remain in place across the region. Otherwise, lows will again fall into the low and middle 60s.
A pair of waves digging down the back side of the trough will push into the region from the north while the eastern Pacific ridge axis shifts a little further offshore.
/Issued 334 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ Warm front currently from east central TX arcing through extreme SE OK and into west central AR has made slow advance northward per 3hr temp trends in OK Mesonet data in SE OK. Similar to yesterday the forecast will side to a less aggressive warm frontal push northward with extensive cloud cover and morning precip acting to retard the cold air erosion. Warm front continues northward on Wednesday but again may struggle to entirely clear areas near the OK / KS border.
/issued 310 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ The ridge from the Carolinas into the Atlantic will change little in strength and position. The area of low pressure in the western Caribbean is a little deeper than this time yesterday. NHC gives small chances of any rapid deepening so the gradient will be be similar to yesterday albeit a little less because the lowest pressures to our south will be moving west toward the Yucatan.
High pressure will be centered to the northeast this period. Short wave energy aloft will also move through during this period as a weak upper low moves north across FL.
Warming has moved into southwest WI, but models have tended to be too warm north of there, not compensating enough for the lower dewpoints/wet bulbs and pcpn induced cooling.
(This evening through Wednesday) Skies have become partly cloudy to clear as the warm front surged to the north today, and temperatures warmed well into the 80s across the area. Tonight, winds will diminish around sunset to between 5 and 10 mph out of the south or southeast, and temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s.
240 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Mild and humid weather will prevail over the next several days, under the western periphery of a southeast US upper level ridge.
Latest water vapor is showing a trough over the Northern Plains which the latest run of HREF shows moving across the Great Lakes tonight and into southern Ontario tomorrow. At the surface, the warm front has moved north into southern Missouri in response to the warm air advection ahead of the trough. This front will continue to move north into the CWA late this afternoon and this evening before it moves back southeast as a cold front in response to the upper trough. Will continue with the likely/categorical PoPs tonight as the front moves back to the southeast tonight as there will be combination of ascent associated with the upper trough and convergence along the front.
As lee side troughing leads to another low pressure system organizing in the Northern Rockies, boundary across southern Missouri is expected to lift north as a warm front.
131 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Isolated to scattered rain showers will remain possible for locations mainly north and west of Pittsburgh through Wednesday with the passage of a weak low pressure system.
239 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Cold front is making its way through the area this afternoon with a wind shift to the north as the only noticeable impact.
/issued 908 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ Similar to yesterday at this time high pressure along and offshore the eastern seaboard combined with a broad area of low pressure over western Cuba and the southeastern Gulf is supporting a breezy easterly wind flow over the forecast area this morning. A 5-6MB gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure across the Caribbean and southeastern Gulf is maintaining a breezy easterly wind flow across the Gulf waters this morning with east winds around 20 knots being observed.
243 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Tonight and Tomorrow: The forecast will be one of persistence again as warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather continue through the period. Despite decent radiational cooling tonight under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind, temperatures will bottom out in the lower 60s as low level moisture remains above normal. Our normal highs run in the lower 70s north to the mid 70s elsewhere.
VFR conds are expected to continue for the Highway 82 corridor TAF sites. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure aloft and at the surface remain in place across the region. Otherwise, lows will again fall into the low and middle 60s.
159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Drier weather moving into the mid state as the upper trough and front move northeastward. Southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place over the next few days, bringing in warmer than average temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the region.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ A warm front has moved completely north of the forecast area today resulting in warm and humid conditions areawide.
221 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 The large area of stratiform precipitation which has covered most of the Keys and coastal waters through the day has begun to erode as slightly drier mid level air intrudes from the east along the base of the ridge along the eastern seaboard. A recent ASCAT pass found winds in the eastern half of the marine area of responsibility dropping below 20 knots, while from the lower Keys westward winds are still several knots above 20.
256 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Satellite imagery this aftn shows a dirty trof over the n cntrl CONUS, with several embedded areas of SN across the ern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Breezy NW flow has overspread much of our area behind a sfc trof. Relatively warm across the area behind the trof, especially compared to recent days, with highs in the 40s to 50s. As an upstream cyclone deepens this evening into tonight, will begin to see isentropic upglide atop the baroclinic zone, leading to our next round of RA/SN. This area of precipitation will lift newd through tomorrow morning and aftn as cyclone continues to strengthen and WAA overspreads wrn SD. Strong midlevel trof will dig into the nrn Rockies tomorrow aftn and evening as upper jet positioning becomes favorable for ascent.
This morning is off to a mild start with temps currently in the lower 60s. A stationary front will linger off to our NW today and could send some cloud cover our way, otherwise high pressure in place will keep conditions dry across the TN Valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with daytime highs pushing into the lower 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal.
Seeing little change in the timing of a cold front for Wednesday afternoon/evening and the accompanying gusty winds.
The axis of a broad upper trough over much of the northern CONUS retreats to the northwestern states through the near term as an upper ridge gradually strengthens over the southeastern states. Dry conditions are otherwise expected through Wednesday afternoon with model soundings showing warming mid-level temperatures associated with subsidence beneath the strengthening upper ridge. Highs today and Wednesday remain in the mid 80s and lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to around 70 at the coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 79 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 53 80 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 78 54 78 57 / 0 0 0 10 10.
With light to moderate onshore flow, temperatures tonight and tomorrow will remain mild ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
Thermal profiles show the lowest 5000 ft to stay above freezing, so not expecting any snow to mix in with this. Winds will switch to the west around midnight or 1 AM tonight as the trough passes through southern WI. Any gusty winds will subside Wednesday afternoon as high pressure takes hold of our area once again. Cronce (Issued 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020) Wednesday night through Tuesday: Light rain will spread into southern WI from the south Wednesday evening with the onset of 700mb warm air advection, but there is still uncertainty about how quickly the low levels will saturate in order for the precip to reach the ground. The steadier rain will arrive after midnight with 850mb frontogenesis and the nose of the low level jet.
307 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure centered over the western Carolinas this afternoon, with a frontal boundary to the north of that extending along the Ohio River westward to the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern New Mexico.
Low pressure currently over west-central Missouri will lift into the southern Great Lakes tonight, bringing a period of showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois.
Late tonight into Wed morning, a cold front associated with the low pressure will push into southern Indiana again bringing a chance for showers/storms Wed morning into early Wed afternoon.
255 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week.
The cold front will lay out from southwest Missouri into central Indiana tonight. By Wednesday, the cold front will move far enough north to return dry conditions to our entire region. This will bring much warmer air into our region, with highs ranging from around 70 degrees across our northwest counties, to around 80 degrees in our south.
Currently, a warm front is slowly lifting northward across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with almost a 30 degree difference in temperature from Hugo to Bartlesville. Locally heavy rainfall, perhaps in the 1 to 2 inch range, will be possible, with areas nearest the Kansas border expected to be most susceptible to the higher amounts. By sunrise, most of the activity should be located from the far corner of northeast Oklahoma and points to the northeast as the low level jet shifts into Missouri and weakens, leaving dry weather areawide by late morning into the afternoon.
153 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week. An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the southeastern states.
Late tonight a Pacific front will push across IL as the warm front lifts to near the IN/MI state line. Overrunning precip is expected along and north of the warm front while additional precip is forecast ahead of the Pacific front.
High pressure anchored to our east will allow for a mostly quiet period. Overnight lows will be mild with temps in the low to mid 50s, which is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
A front remains stalled from the Ohio Valley to Central Texas while high pressure is centered along the Mid- Atlantic Coast.
SW flow aloft ahead of the trough up in the Northern Plains/Northern MS Valley will pull in additional moisture and help keep overnight lows about 10 degrees above normal. Additional cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning but once again, high pressure in place will keep conditions dry and warm.
322 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Recent water vapor imagery showing an upper trough traversing the northern Plains. A modest cold front with this wave was entering northwest Kansas at 19Z.
Warmer air will then overspread the area, with dry conditions expected through the afternoon and highs ranging from around 80 along the Arkansas border to the mid 60s over central Missouri and will dependent on how far north the front gets. A continued south low level flow over the region will make for a mild night, with lows from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf States will keep southerly surface winds across the region. To the north a week cold front will move southward towards the CWA. Progged soundings show saturation at the lowest levels co-located with overrunning of the front near KCDS.
Expect warmer lows tonight generally in the 50s to mid 60s.
Dry conditions will persist through tonight and Wednesday morning, as low temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s. By Wednesday afternoon, low level winds will become southerly, pulling slightly warmer air into the region. But given the late arrival of southerly flow, afternoon highs will only rise a few degrees above today, reaching into the low to mid 50s.
Potent upper level trough over the northwest begins to take aim at the Northern Plains.
Temps may climb a few degrees higher with additional sun as well as southerly winds, so most areas should see around 80 to the low 80s today.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: The forecast will be one of persistence again as warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather continue through the period. Despite decent radiational cooling tonight under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind, temperatures will bottom out in the lower 60s as low level moisture remains above normal. Our normal highs run in the lower 70s north to the mid 70s elsewhere.
251 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure will stick around through Wednesday with mild and dry conditions.
By mid afternoon, the temperatures were still struggling in the low to mid 50s across the Highway 183 corridor from Hays to Medicine Lodge, as the clearing line of the low level stratus had not reached those areas yet. Farther west, temperatures had reached the 60s around Garden City under full insolation, while at the intersection of a dryline and warm front, the temperatures reached the mid 80s in the Elkhart area. Clouds are forecast to continue to clear this evening and winds gradually veering to a southerly direction, however low stratus clouds will rapidly return as a surface warm front lifts north to the OK/KS line by the very late overnight/pre-dawn hours.
/issued 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ Mild and humid weather will prevail over the next several days, under the western periphery of a southeast US upper level ridge.
/Issued 506 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ A cold front will push into the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle overnight. The low clouds, fog, and drizzle will slowly dissipate from southwest to northeast during the day on Wednesday which could cause a tight temperature gradient across the northeast CWA.
Drier weather moving into the mid state as the upper trough and front move northeastward. Southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place over the next few days, bringing in warmer than average temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the region.
853 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Upper level ridging over the northern Atlantic basin, was in part helping to keep the polar jet in an almost zonal orientation over the northern states. TS Epsilon south of the ridge and ~500 miles SE of Bermuda should remain well to our east. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 70s. Another mild night is expected, with lows cooling into the mid 50s over NE AL to low 60s NW AL - warmer than normal lows in the upper 40s. Another nice day is expected for the mid week, with highs warming into the lower 80s most spots. Additional cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning but once again, high pressure in place will keep conditions dry and warm.
1033 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Upper level ridging will increase across the Southeast and mid- Atlantic tonight and tomorrow, contributing to a warming trend that will push temperatures well above normal through the remainder of the work week.
334 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Weak surface cold front boundary has made it down to CYS as of 18Z with a quick temperature drop from 63 do 54 degrees in less than 10 minutes. The surface frontal boundary will retrograde as a weak warm front overnight into Wednesday. Expired the HWW headline for 18Z today, but do expect the high winds to make a return over the North Snowy Range terrain/I-80 corridor between Laramie and Sinclair around 9Z. Typically when model guidance trends toward the higher gusts starting for a high wind event over the wind prone areas, the stronger wind gusts observed via mesonet start slightly earlier, thus the 9Z timeline was chosen. Approaching cold front will reach central Wyoming by Wednesday afternoon with light rain showers starting in our northern zones toward sunset across Converse/Niobrara County.
Can't rule out a little pocket or two of freezing rain, but accumulations across the board are anticipated to be light. An organizing area of low pressure west of the region will begin taking shape Wednesday night. A vigorous upper trough will dive southeast from the PacNW into the northern High Plains the latter half of Wednesday.
619 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Skies have become partly cloudy to clear as the warm front surged to the north today, and temperatures warmed well into the 80s across the area. Tonight, winds will diminish around sunset to between 5 and 10 mph out of the south or southeast, and temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s.
532 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Satellite imagery this aftn shows a dirty trof over the n cntrl CONUS, with several embedded areas of SN across the ern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Breezy NW flow has overspread much of our area behind a sfc trof. Relatively warm across the area behind the trof, especially compared to recent days, with highs in the 40s to 50s. As an upstream cyclone deepens this evening into tonight, will begin to see isentropic upglide atop the baroclinic zone, leading to our next round of RA/SN. This area of precipitation will lift newd through tomorrow morning and aftn as cyclone continues to strengthen and WAA overspreads wrn SD. Strong midlevel trof will dig into the nrn Rockies tomorrow aftn and evening as upper jet positioning becomes favorable for ascent.
During this evening and the early overnight, winds shift to northwesterly bringing in cooler and drier air.
Current forecast is on track ending the mild weather Wednesday morning before a strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds.
5 inches per hour, which on the higher end of that spectrum is nearing 1-hr flash flood guidance. Low pressure currently over west-central Missouri will lift into the southern Great Lakes tonight, bringing a period of showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois.
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 latest RAP model has high pressure along the eastern seaboard reaching northern FL over night as a trough of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean sea pushes onshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly cloudy skies give way to partly cloudy during the night with lows in the lower 70s. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will maintain a tight gradient across the waters for the next few days with robust winds at times.
All things considered, the atmospheric conditions are reflected in radar imagery, which shows some areas of stratiform rain and a growing mass of convective showers with isolated thunder over the distant Straits south of the Lower and Middle Keys. The Keys waters lie between a weak low over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula and a large area of high pressure near the U. Correspondingly, the Pulley Ridge buoy in the southeast Gulf has observed a decrease in seas since this afternoon from 7 feet now down to 5 feet.
Recent water vapor imagery showing an upper trough traversing the northern Plains. A modest cold front with this wave was entering northwest Kansas at 19Z.
Current low temperature forecast looks reasonable, with the HRRR showing little movement in the warm front overnight.
/EC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: The forecast will be one of persistence again as warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather continue through the period. Despite decent radiational cooling tonight under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind, temperatures will bottom out in the lower 60s as low level moisture remains above normal. Our normal highs run in the lower 70s north to the mid 70s elsewhere.
809 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week.