Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
324 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U. AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW HEADS SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z TUE WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WED WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE W. RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN CWA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN SITS DOWNSTATE UNTIL SUN NIGHT WHEN IT SHIFTS TO THE NE. BUT OVERALL IT DOES LOOK COOLER FRI INTO SAT. THEN SUN AND MON LOOK TO BE WARMER.
A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BUT DO HAVE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEEN PERCENT FOR WESTERN 301.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR REGION PLUS A NEARLY NON-EXISTENT MARINE LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE.
305 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 A WARM FRONT WAS HUNG UP OVER SOUTHERN IA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. DOWNTURN IN THE TEMPERATURES AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT FROM RIDGING TO TROUGH/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
232 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NUDGE WEST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOUR AG0. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA MEANDERS WEST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD AND WEAKENS. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FORCE A CONTINUATION OF CHANCE OR BETTER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED.
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TRAVERSING THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE CLOSED CIRCULATION AND LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BY MID WEEK.
406 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1020MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTAS. VALUES UPPER LOW OVER EAST GULF WILL RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH TEXAS.
314 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED ABOUT 30 MILES FARTHER EAST TODAY AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING CU FIELD FROM TATUM TO EAST OF CLOVIS. WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO COOL DOWN AS HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DESPITE THE RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN.
THE EAST PAC UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP BY MIDWEEK WILL PUSH INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MX TO THE MIDWEST. THE REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND KS THEN NORTH ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL UT. A WEAK TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGGING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST TO TRANSLATE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES FORCES THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE WEST TO FAR WESTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS WEST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO GENERATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY BE DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE EAST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS SPREADING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE OPEN ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS OF 10AM. /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/ THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER GEORGIA TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
326 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ON TUESDAY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO USHER IN MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT MEANDERS AWAY TO THE SOUTH.
SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND ALSO OVER SW KS/SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB NOTED ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS MOVING EAST. WHICH IS CAUSING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO FLATTEN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM KDDC-KGBD-KCNK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THAT 500 MB LOW WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR /ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND CAUSES FRONTOGENESIS.
SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AGAIN TUESDAY WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KDHT AND KGUY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. AND WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS MAY EVEN TOUCH FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR SUNRISE. GIVEN THE BRIEF NEAR FREEZING POTENTIAL WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS EVENING & TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS.
LIMITED THE MENTION OF VCTS TO MIA AND TMB WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS SOUTH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH 12Z MFL SOUNDING SAMPLED STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER.
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low moving southeast out of forecast area. Byrd A warming trend will begin Monday afternoon as upper level heights rise, low-mid level warm air advection increases leading to warming 850 mb temperatures, and the surface/low level flow becomes southerly/southwesterly as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of the region. NAM MOS guidance looks too cool, warmer GFS MOS appears more reasonable.
651 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE 30S WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS REACHING THE LOW 40S. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER WESTERN NY BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 20S. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW. WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING.
BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE VERY EDGE AS A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST AGAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD 520DM LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN IS COMING AS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A 0. 08" OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WHICH IS THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION OBSERVED SO FAR. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN GENERAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INLAND.
MORE LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING TOWARD SUNRISE. SINCE THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL ONLY BE SPOTTY AND BRIEF WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
The first item to discuss is the freezing temperatures for tonight into tomorrow morning. High pressure settling into the region from the west will allow for winds to become light to calm and variable overnight. Temps tomorrow will quickly rebound well into the 60s with the next chance for freezing temps not arriving again until later this week.
CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS NORTHWEST BREEZES SURGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN APPROACHING CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER N TX BUILDS INTO SE TX BY 12Z. WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FROST W/ JUST ABOUT AREA WIDE FREEZING READINGS AT DAYBREAK. /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS REMAINED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CSRA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FROM COLUMBIA ON NORTHWARD SINCE MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WL MOVE EWD ACRS THE CWA/MSA. COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA TO THE LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ) WARMER MONDAY AFTN OWING TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BEFORE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS DUE TO A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER ARE PRESENT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AND WE SHOULD BE CLEAR BY LATE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE EASTWARD SPREADING FURTHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER. BUT THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL HELP TO MODIFY THE AIR MASS TO THE POINT WHERE I THINK LOWS WILL AGAIN ONLY BE MARGINALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE WEST. THE COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WIND CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORD NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AS THE CURRENT RECORDS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
WINDS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE WILL BE SUSTAINED 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT WEST BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK.
500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE 30S WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS REACHING THE LOW 40S. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER WESTERN NY BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY. TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 20S. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW. WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING.
A DIURNAL RESPONSE HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE NORTH AS CU HAS DEVELOPED AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY INFLUENCE MBS AND FNT AWAY FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY INCREASE IN WINDS TOMORROW MORNING. SO LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS INTO THIS ORGANIZING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN STILL IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT GREENLAND EAST TO THE COAST OF EUROPE. THIS STORM IS UNABLE TO PROGRESS ANY FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN A SEMI-DISORGANIZED DUAL CENTER POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
355 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING UP TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
1239 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ THE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED NORTHERN ALABAMA YESTERDAY HAS ONLY MOVED AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER LOW WHICH FORMED ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH WE MAY HAVE VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper level low and associated showers pulling off to the south this morning. The first day of spring is a little cooler than the past week. 07z/2am surface analysis shows trough axis bisecting the KILX CWA from near Galesburg to just south of Paris. Due to surface temps above freezing and relatively warm soil conditions, no accumulation is expected. The trough will gradually settle southward today, pushing any lingering light precip south of the CWA by midday. As the trough axis sinks southward and winds become northeasterly, this drier air will try to work its way into central Illinois. High pressure will build into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Bands of light rain and snow courtesy of an upper low crossing the region will continue to slowly push south this evening through south central KY. Don't think we'll see any impacts from the quick light snow accums with ground temps well above freezing. For the rest of tonight, expect dry conditions as the upper low moves off to the southeast. Although we haven't entered the main part of the growing season where a lot of vegetation would be negatively impacted by these sub-freezing temps (thus no freeze warning will be issued), still feel an SPS is in order to highlight the cold temps. Patchy to areas of frost are expected with moist low levels, light winds and sub-freezing temps. Highs in the lower 50s are expected for Mon under partly cloudy skies.
510 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SINKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER BY THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Cold air advection behind a cold front will continue into tonight, setting up our coolest night in a couple weeks across the area.
SFC OBS DO INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. MODEL TEMP TIME HEIGHT GRAPHICS INDICATE THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT ANY SNOWFALL. ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TEMP ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE WEST OF HERE BUCKLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
300 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 Upper low tracking to the east now up through the Ohio River Valley, with some minor instability sprinkles and flurries in its wake over parts of Central Illinois this afternoon. However, the high pressure ridge axis slowly shifting into the Miss River Valley tonight will result in northerly winds becoming light and increasingly westerly by morning. Concern for temps below freezing, and llvl moisture being enhanced by snow/light showers from last night. For now, will leave the fog mention out, but overnight shift will have to watch closely for clearing gaps in cloud cover as winds will be dropping under the ridge axis. That being said, the temps in the lower 30s/upper 20s is not that far below normal for the second half of March.
BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING CENTERED TO THE WEST MAKING FOR LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER NORTH/EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST AND WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. BUT HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE IN A BETTER LOCATION FOR GETTING NEAR FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
418 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
1234 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016 THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS IMPACTED THE CENTRAL CONUS IS MOVING EASTWARD TODAY.
145 PM MST SUN MAR 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BEFORE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING UP TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC TROF STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING SHOWERS TO BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 1053 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IN THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE WILL REACH TAMPA BAY AROUND 15Z AND FORT MYERS AROUND 18Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST.
153 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET DURING MONDAY AS OFFSHORE STORM REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES/SHSN.
Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward into the Western High Plains tonight. This will enhance warm air advection into the high plains with H85 temperatures climbing above 10C across southwest and much of central Kansas. Slow moisture return will begin to raise surface dewpoints somewhat, possibly pushing into the lower 20s(F) toward daybreak. A much warmer air mass will continue to spread eastward across the high plains Monday pushing H85 temperatures into the mid teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C along the Colorado border. Under mostly sunny skies, highs will climb well into the 70s(F) with the lower to mid 80s(F) now likely in extreme southwest Kansas. On Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten out, leaving the central Plains under west northwesterly flow aloft.
THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL FLATTEN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. WITH WARMING EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE TOMORROW. ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS. ALL THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS MOVING TO THE EAST.
A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON IS BRINGING INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.