Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
629 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 A few locations have already dropped to near the low temperature forecast. So with light winds, clear skies, and fresh snow, have tended to go towards the lower side of guidance and temperatures a couple of degrees lower overnight tonight than what was produced by the CONSShort guidance. Have also lowered the high temperatures expected on Tuesday over much of the area. Across the far southern portion of the forecast area where snow amounts are lower with a degree of melting that has taken place today under sunny skies, expect temperatures near or even slightly warmer than guidance across that portion of the forecast area. Upper level ridging spreads over the area by mid week ahead of an approaching trough.
550 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Upper level low pressure will continue to move across central Missouri this evening with moisture sweeping around the departing low. Ceilings will remain VFR but on the low side and may actually briefly become MVFR for the northern terminals. West to northwest winds will remain gusty across the north in the vicinity of the upper low through the period but will gradually decrease with time for the remainder of the TAF sites.
Many surface temperatures are within a degree or two of freezing. This will clear out some of the mid-level moisture and limit the potential for snow, with any precipitation expected to transition over to freezing drizzle for all but the far north. By this point there will not be as much lift present, so expect any freezing drizzle to be light and ice accumulations to be minimal. However, expect roads to still be slippery in spots especially on bridges and untreated roads. Some cooler air filtering in behind the system may briefly transition precip back to snow before departing.
611 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Low pressure will track northeast through the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday, forcing a cold front east across the area.
656 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A potent area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes will push a trailing cold front through the Commonwealth on Tuesday.
651 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Unseasonably warm conditions are expected until the passage of a cold front tonight. Line of showers associated with a wave out ahead of the cold front will slowly make progress toward the region.
We could see some light freezing drizzle this evening before a switch over to very light snow. Cooler temperatures build back into the region on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 20s.
432 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Water vapor shows upper low over northern IA with narrow upper ridge over the far western Dakotas, and weak upper trof over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low center nearly stacked with upper low. Weak trof over the Northern Rockies will quickly move into the Northern Plains tonight, with brief light snow expected from NE WY into far SW SD and a very small window of upslope in the northern Black Hills. Skies will clear from west to east Tuesday behind departing trof with highs in the 30s to lower 40s and some breezy northwest winds.
04z ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Surface analysis indicates that the surface cold front is making its way into east central MS and southeast LA. Otherwise, winds will gradually turn west to northwest following frontal passage late this evening into the overnight hours with a cooler and drier airmass arriving in the wake of this feature.
829 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Increasing ascent associated with a short wave trough over the east-central Gulf this evening ahead of the cold front which is now over the central Florida panhandle is helping to set off showers over the forecast area and adjacent Gulf waters early this evening. Cooler mid level temperatures (-12C at 500MB via 00Z raob data) will support adequate low/mid level instability which will support the possibility of a few thunderstorms as well. During the remainder of the night into Tuesday sufficient moisture combined with frontogenetic forcing along and ahead of the cold front should support additional showers and isolated storms moving in from the Gulf as the front approaches and moves south through the region through the period.
Strong and gusty westerly winds continue late this afternoon with low SC deck on backside of departing upper low, currently lifting northeast into far NE MO. Gusts to 35 mph may continue for a few hours during the evening across northwest Arkansas, especially in the higher terrain.
So with light winds, clear skies, and fresh snow, have tended to go towards the lower side of guidance and temperatures a couple of degrees lower overnight tonight than what was produced by the CONSShort guidance. Have also lowered the high temperatures expected on Tuesday over much of the area. Across the far southern portion of the forecast area where snow amounts are lower with a degree of melting that has taken place today under sunny skies, expect temperatures near or even slightly warmer than guidance across that portion of the forecast area. Upper level ridging spreads over the area by mid week ahead of an approaching trough.
However, models show redevelopment of showers along a weak cold front that is currently crossing the Tennessee River. Otherwise, gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 mph will continue into the early evening as an area of low pressure moves through the Midwest. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s to around 40 in the wake of the cold front, but that actually seems warm compared to the Arctic cold earlier this month.
Surface analysis indicates that the surface cold front is making its way into east central MS and southeast LA. Otherwise, winds will gradually turn west to northwest following frontal passage late this evening into the overnight hours with a cooler and drier airmass arriving in the wake of this feature.
Some patchy fog developed in a few valleys last night and expect the same again the next few nights due to the ever present snow cover, keeping the lower levels more saturated.
Another cold night in store with lows near freezing in the deserts with temperatures well below freezing south and east of Tucson.
Our area will see a brief hiatus between storms the rest of tonight and Tuesday under a transitory upper level high pressure ridge.
933 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Winds remain gusty from the WSW this evening in the wake of today's Pacific cold front. Moisture wrapping around the mid- level cyclone will provide an area of clouds across the region tonight as well, mainly over the northern half of the CWA. The associated cold front has pushed through most of the area. Temps this afternoon are mostly in the lower 60s.
A weak upper trough over the region will produce a few showers today.
1029 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Hydro Chilly air will continue to flow into Michigan the next few days as stubborn low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes Region lifts slowly north into Quebec.
Gusty north winds will add a chill to the air, especially across the cooler areas near Lake Michigan. Cooler lower to middle 50s are expected near the lake. High pressure noses south through Wisconsin today in the wake of the departing low pressure system to the south. We should still manage to get temps in the low-mid 50s east to the lower 60s west of Madison. We still see lots of temps in the lower and mid 30s. Dewpoints really fall off and this lowers our humidity and that may keep frost from forming.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 46 69 45 / 70 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 65 45 / 70 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 42 66 43 / 70 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 40 61 38 / 70 40 10 0.
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Texas ridging eastward across the Gulf Coast as a trough continues to lift northeast away from the region. The upper level trough remains entrenched over the area.
943 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Skies are clear and temperatures were quickly rising into the lower 70s this morning. Current forecast has temperatures rising into the lower 80s this afternoon.
An upper level ridge will slowly progress across the central plains through Sunday. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s. South winds at 10 to 15 mph along with increasing dewpoints into the upper 40s will lead to warmer lows lows in the lower to mid 50s tonight.
It's going to be unseasonably cool tonight with everybody dropping at least into the low 40s. Per building dry nwly upper level flow and sfc ridging influences, pcpn chances should end by 07/01Z CKV/BNA and 07/03Z CSV.
An upper level trough will maintain seasonally cool temperatures today with scattered light showers.
703 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Moisture backing in from the northeast will support ceilings 2500- 5000 FEET this morning, lifting toward the higher end this afternoon.
1022 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 High pressure at the sfc and dry nly flow aloft will result in a very pleasant Saturday. A developing omega block will continue to take shape with the central ridge axis located through the Great Plains. The influence of this upper ridge over the next few days will result in a general persistence forecast.
820 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 High pressure building over the area will keep VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Beyond some clouds with the secondary boundaries this morning, mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds across the state from the Gulf of Mexico. Daytime highs will be on the cooler side today under occasionally breezy west/northwest flow, in the upper 70s and low 80s.
836 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. A sprawling upper low remains entrenched over the region this morning. Fries Upper low will remain over the forecast area tonight and Sunday maintaining shower chances and well below normal temperatures.
TFJ Upper ridge over eastern Montana will slide into North Dakota by this evening.
Quiet conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period with upper level ridging providing plenty of subsidence across the region. /issued 416 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Highly-amplified upper level ridging across the Central US will dominate the short term across Deep South Texas and keep conditions benign through Sunday. The axis of the ridge will move overhead the Southern Plains on Sunday with a deep 500mb low pressure system digging behind it towards Baja California.
855 AM PDT Sat May 6 2017 Cooler with a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
628 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 High pressure will dominate through the period for widespread VFR conditions. Pattern is dominated by deep troughs over the Ohio Valley and off the west coast. In between is a large upper ridge stretching from far west Texas northward to Montana. A compact upper level impulse will travel down the eastern periphery of the upper ridge today and push a back door cold front through the region. Front will only bring a wind shift, a few clouds and some slightly cooler and drier air to the region. Otherwise the upper ridge will begin to build over the area as yet another upper low develops and moves into southern California.
Ridge at the surface and aloft will have the main influence over the weather during the TAF period.
931 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 AC and CI spilling over mid level ridge getting ready to enter the far northern FA. The amplified upper ridge currently over the Rockies will begin to move slowly into the western Plains today.
1033 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 An upper level low over the eastern U.
High pressure remains over the region resulting in light winds and warmer temperatures today. /Issued 321 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Highly amplified pattern currently in place across the CONUS will be slow to evolve and with ridging aloft to dominate conditions across the Southern Plains for the next several days.
602 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Not much to say about today, other than ideal! Weak backdoor cool front has pushed through much of the forecast area, but really will have little effect on temperatures, with highs just a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
800 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Strong low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States will lift farther north today. Dry high pressure will dominate Sunday into the middle of the week. Upper low pressure will continue moving through the Mid-Atlantic states and lifting north today. This morning will start off cool and dry, and then warm into the low 70s.
746 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Aviation Chilly air will continue to flow into Michigan the next few days as stubborn low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes Region lifts slowly north into Quebec.
631 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Another quiet day in store for the area Saturday as surface and mid/upper ridging overspread the area. As the ridge slides off to the east southerly return flow will commence.
/issued 313 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ High amplitude ridge over New Mexico this morning will progress east across West Texas today bringing very warm temperatures and dry conditions. The ridge then shifts east on Sunday as West Texas begins to come under the influence of a deep closed low currently developing along the central coast of California and which will dig southward over northern Baja by late Sunday.
630 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A high-amplitude ridge centered along the spine of the Rockies will shift east into the Great Plains this weekend, downstream from a split-stream trough moving onto the West Coast. The ridging aloft will support continued dry weather with above-normal afternoon high temperatures.
738 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 A large upper level area of low pressure will drift slowly northeast along the Appalachians today and tonight. This system should finally exit on Sunday followed by weak high pressure that will gradually build in from the west by Sunday night.
1050 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Along the Florida Keys, skies are mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from 70 degrees in the Upper Keys to the mid 70 along the Lower keys. Surface wise, a broad and weak ridge axis is draped from the Gulf of Mexico waters into extreme south Florida and our region.
648 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017 /12Z TAFS/ A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through tonight. /issued 407 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and warmer weather will prevail across the area today, as an amplified upper ridge resides across the Plains states. Subsidence associated with the ridge aloft will result in a cloud free sky today, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight will be mostly clear and warmer, with light south to southeast winds and overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Starting off with the 500mb ridge stretching from Mexico up through the border with MT/WY/ND/SD and through Saskatchewan.
733 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Decreasing cloud cover be the trend for the morning hours with an upper-trough passing to the east. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 46 69 45 / 60 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 43 65 45 / 70 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 42 66 43 / 70 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 40 61 38 / 70 40 10 0.
An upper level trof of low pressure will continue to reside over the region today. The highlights could be extended later today into tonight/Friday morning, as an additional 2 to 5 inches is possible at higher elevations.
317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front crosses late today and this evening.
423 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front will push across the Panhandles tonight before stalling south of the forecast area. The frontal boundary is then forecast to lift northward Friday and Friday night as a warm front before a secondary surge of even much colder air drives the front south again.
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Moisture will increase significantly over the next 24 hours, as a warm front approaches from the south. Highs will be from the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s today, a bit warmer on Friday with the 70s and some 80s over the south.
Bulk shear supports organized convection, however, instability is quite weak with dewpoints only running in the lower to mid 40s by this afternoon. Otherwise, highs today will peak around 60 NE to the lower 70s SW. A strong trof approaches the region from the SW.
Synoptic Setup: A large trough sets over the Pacific Northwest running from northern Utah through southern Idaho and Washington. A weak ridge axis runs through the western Dakotas and far northeast Montana. At the surface an inverted trough has set up just off the front range and is providing a focal point for rain showers across central parts of the state. Today through Friday: with positioning of the inverted trough to the west and a meso ridge to the east radar echos are reaching about the Phillips/Valley County border before dying.
608 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Warm and humid high pressure will build in through the end of the work week.
330 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure centers over central WY and southeast CO, with frontal boundary stretching between the two areas. Temps are mostly in the 40s and lower 50s, with some 30s over the higher Black Hills and portions of northeast WY. Regional radars showing heavier bands of pcpn wrapping around developing upper low from south central MT to central WY to far western Neb. Upper low will continue to develop over eastern WY tonight, then track southeast into northeast CO before getting swallowed up later on Friday by stronger trough and low developing across the Great Basin and Four Corners area.
205 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A weak disturbance is expected to affect the area tonight, followed by high pressure Friday into the weekend.
Brisk wly winds will develop in the wake of the low pressure area with gradual drying and subsidence bringing some clearing to the region tnt. Rain chances increase across southern WI through Fri afternoon as a low level jet (LLJ) points into the WI/IL border and the low level front pivots over the area with the approach of a mid level wave.
414 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front will move across the region with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through early tonight. High pressure will then build off the Atlantic coast and begin a trend for warmer and more humid conditions, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, through the weekend.
The approaching short wave is slowly inducing sfc troffing along the Front Range. With the lowest 5,000ft across the Wrn half of Central KS not moistening until mid-late afternoon have delayed arrival of the rain to the about NW quarter of KICT Country til 3-4 PM. Fri-Sat Night: Rain & embedded thunderstorms really ramp up as the main upper deck trof undergoes cyclogenesis as it digs further over the 4-Corners Region Fri Night. VFR conditions will dominate the region to start the afternoon but an approaching low pressure system will cause the clouds to increase and conditions to deteriorate this afternoon and evening.
Friday morning lows will be around 15-20 degrees warmer in some areas compared to this morning.
349 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front will move across the region with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through early tonight. High pressure will then build off the Atlantic coast and begin a trend for warmer and more humid conditions, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, through the weekend.
Still some cooler temps aloft today over eastern areas as well. As the period opens, a large low pressure system is progged to be gathering strength over the four corners region of the swrn CONUS, while dry high pressure is in control of the weather picture over this CWA.
115 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Area of cool high pressure continues to build southeast across the forecast area allowing winds to become light and variable in our western areas. A clearing line continues to slowly move east and morning temperatures continue to drop to below freezing in clear areas. Although temps under the blanket of clouds are above freezing, we are going to continue frost/freeze headlines with any additional clearing allowing temperatures to drop by sunrise. Forcing for ascent should subside quickly by Friday afternoon while a cooler/drier airmass drops out of the Dakotas.
Period of clear skies and warm air advection should get highs up into the lower 60s east and upper 50s west before the next round of clouds and eventually precipitation move in from the southwest later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. On Friday night the stage will get set for a wet weekend as a strong mid level low pressure tracks over the Rockies and eventually ejects out over the plains. Ahead of the low pressure strong southerly flow will advect moist air from the gulf. The low level jet will overrun this surface front, which will supply moisture and convergence.
445 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 The short term period will be mostly dry, as a strong ridge of high pressure exerts its influence on the region tonight and tomorrow. The ridge will begin to break down late tomorrow afternoon, as a strong area of low pressure aloft begins to move eastward toward the Ohio valley. The ridge, however, is going to be stubborn and will not simply exit the area. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow a warm front to push through the area tomorrow, while keeping an approaching cold front from invading the area Friday night.
438 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front will move east of the area this afternoon. High pressure will briefly build in behind the front tonight.
Sfc winds are L/V w/ high pressure crossing the MS river today. Light and variable winds to begin the period until the high shifts east, allowing winds to trend more S/SE as speeds increase to between 5-10 kts with some gusts possible at TYR this afternoon.
1117 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western WY and southeast CO, with frontal boundary stretching between the two areas. At the surface, Canadian high pressure resides across the Dakotas, with low pressure centered across central Wyoming. With high pressure over the central Dakotas, most of the precip should be confined to the Black Hills area and west. However, across southern Campbell County where the heaviest pcpn is forecast, 6 to 8 inches of snow is possible, especially across the higher elevations. The weekend looks mainly dry, but remaining cool, as large trof lingers over the region. Active northwest flow on the back side of the trough will bring several disturbances across the area, with daily chances for showers in most areas.
On Friday, a cold front may be the focus for more thunderstorms, especially across the northwest half of the CWA. The cold front will then push into the southeast Texas Panhandle overnight. The upper level low is expected to intensify and cutoff over the 4-corners.
/ISSUED 1001 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/ Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show cold front in the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi River Delta to south of Brownsville TX. For the afternoon update may have to look at adding fog as moisture returns tonight with the front in the Gulf returning as a warm front.
Upper low over N Mn will move little today. Upper level low moving NNE and will stall out as anticipated near Roseau and then move east later tonight.
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A passing cold front, will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, especially west of Interstate 81. Friday looks rain-free and warm, under the influence of weak high pressure. Meanwhile lots of sunshine late this morning is being seen over the Finger Lakes including the Syracuse area where southerly flow is downsloping off of the higher terrain to the south. Mostly sunny skies and T925 around 20C will bring high temperatures in the lake plain into the lower 80s with readings across much of central New York into the middle to upper 70s.
Cold front just about clear of our eastern forecast area this hour, with just some low clouds across the region in its wake. A warm front then will lift north across the region during the day Friday. as high temperatures tomorrow should be 10 to even 15 degrees warmer than today.
Temperatures are several degrees cooler than this time yesterday making for a very pleasant April day.