Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
08z surface analysis had low over southern MB with trough to another low over northeast SD and trough into southeast WY. Both are assisting elevated convection with best activity over southeast MT per 850-700mb theta-e ridge. MLCIN erodes quickest over the higher terrain of the Black Hills spreading to the surface boundary by 00z each day.
In the wake of tonight's significant thunderstorm activity, cooler outflow air from the storms will lower highs Tuesday into the 80s to lower 90s.
106 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to build into the area east of the remains of Barry. Weak trough along the coast. It appears that the upper ridge is a little stronger today and some model guidance suggests stronger mid level cap. A few of the high resolution models suggest widely scattered thunderstorms mainly across the central Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont. High pressure aloft will continue to sit over the Southeast U. There will be a slight chance of diurnal convection due to the subsiding air underneath high pressure.
/issued 1012 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ Skies remain cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
320 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The low associated with the remnants of Barry is currently located across western Arkansas this afternoon. Cooler conditions are occurring across the area today as temperatures are currently in the 70s with the clouds and rain in place. The low will spread east during the day ending the rain from west to east by Tuesday night. Cooler conditions will remain over the eastern Ozarks where highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected Tuesday. A warm air mass will begin to spread in to from the west allowing highs to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s across southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 70s.
The upper trof progged to absorb the remnants of Barry tomorrow will also keep enough instability across the region to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, but the energy will be more diurnally driven. Upper ridging builds into the southeastern U.
1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Water vapor imagery currently shows remnants of Barry spinning over central AR with upper ridging stretching from the southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Still expecting 850mb temps to start increasing for Tue as upper ridging expands across the Southern Plains with temps expected to continuing warming into Wed. This will keep any cooler air well north of the area through Fri. However, ECMWF doesn't show this at all and actually keeps weak upper ridging over the northern Plains.
A quiet weather pattern continues with a trough of low pressure along the KS/CO border and remnants of Barry moving up the Lower Mississippi Valley. Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high sprawls out across the Southern United States with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface across the Central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado each afternoon, but models suggest these storms to dissipate before reaching the KS/CO border.
The rains have done little to curb daytime temps, and so the heat indices will remain elevated to push near the low end of heat advisory conditions for portions of the foreast area over the next couple days.
1012 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Skies remain cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
328 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - A round of warm frontal thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening.
1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Frontal zone extending south to north across central South Dakota this morning was a good dividing line mainly between the high dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s to the east and lower to mid 60s dewpoints along the Missouri River. Slightly drier, cooler air will move in behind this boundary.
With the loss of the weak cool/dry advection, overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than last night.
The higher clouds and some middle clouds extend far to the east over the forecast area. Filtered sunshine has allowed temperatures to rise to the upper 80s to around 90 across the eastern Tennessee Valley with heat index values in the lower to mid 90s. High pressure aloft and at the surface extends to the east and southeast into the Carolinas.
/issued 332 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an upper low centered over Arkansas. Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer across the area today with highs generally ranging from the mid 90s to the triple digits. Highs on Tuesday may be a degree or two warmer than today and there is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.
The chances of precipitation will continue to drop tonight and tomorrow, as a ridge of high pressure to the west and another ridge to the east merge, forming a fairly strong ridge over the Southern Plains. As the influence of this ridge strengthens, temperatures will stay just above normal. High temperatures combined with the high dewpoints will result in high heat indices from 105-109, mainly across the Coastal Bend and Brush Country.
Latest runs of the high resolution cam models point to locations west and northwest of Billings (from Livingston to Harlowton) and locations from around Fort Smith eastward, as the best chances of severe today.
205 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2019 An upper level trof will move through the region tonight, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another round of storms is expected on Tuesday, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
The cool and moist trough of low pressure should linger Tuesday in north central Idaho and western Montana.
230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 West Texas continues to be under the influence of an upper level ridge that is centered across the southern Rockies.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal with lows Tuesday morning in the lower 70s. Temperatures will be warmer on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
This should just be the start to the return of the hot and humid weather, as the upper ridge builds in more solidly by the middle to latter part of the week.
128 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A trough of low pressure over the West will bring cooler weather with a deeper marine layer for the rest of the week.
Compact upper trough along the WA coast will move eastward across the Pacific NW today and tonight.
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Not much change to the current forecast, as upper-lvl ridging persists over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This will allow the ridge to fill in to the east, and the low-lvl thermal ridge to shift from western NM to eastern, resulting in above-normal temperatures thru the extended. W/the return of Gulf moisture to the area, chances for convection the next few days will increase, although not by much, and mainly over the higher terrain as upslope flow/orography will be the only focus for development. The only exceptions continue to be Wed/Thu nights, when models hint at bringing disturbances thru the ridge.
213 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 (Tonight and Tuesday) The circulation from the remnant low of Barry is currently moving north over Arkansas while an upper ridge is expanding back into West Texas from the west. The temperatures at 1 pm are into the low to mid 90s across the region, and we'll likely see highs today reach the upper 90s in many locations. This evening and Tuesday, the core of the upper ridge will move farther east into West Texas, resulting in an expansion and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. The increased subsidence from the building ridge should inhibit afternoon shower/thunderstorm development.
344 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The large scale pattern consisted of fast zonal flow situated over the northern tier states along with a high pressure dome over the southwestern CONUS and a closed low over the lower MS valley region.
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Aviation - A round of warm frontal thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening.
/issued 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ West Texas continues to be under the influence of an upper level ridge that is centered across the southern Rockies.
McCall recently reported a gust near 40 mph, and according to fire lookout reports, winds were near 50 mph at ridgetop.
HEAT CONTINUES WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AFTERNOON AND EVENING Late evening surface analysis depicts high pressure (1019 millibars) blanketing the southeastern states. deep- layered ridging remains centered over the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia. Thinning debris cloudiness will migrate southward across our region overnight, with surface winds mostly decoupling and lows falling to the lower 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at coastal locations. High pressure will otherwise remain centered just west of our waters through Tuesday night and will then sink southward over the Florida peninsula while slowly weakening by midweek as a weak trough dives into the southeastern states.
322 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Showers and storms will continue forming over the high country this evening with moisture and modest instability. Tuesday will be a rinse and repeat of today with respect to the late morning storms forming over the high country moving onto the plains in the afternoon.
558 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Cold front associated with a short wave north of the arrowhead of Minnesota may aid in initiating thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota through the evening hours. With higher amounts of cloud cover, have hedged slightly cooler on highs despite unseasonably warm air remaining aloft.
An upper level trof will move through the region tonight, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another round of storms is expected on Tuesday, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
415 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Cloud cover associated with Tropical Depression Barry has kept a damper on temperatures this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s as of 3 pm.
Temperatures in Delta breeze influenced areas are 2 to 7 degrees warmer this afternoon, due to a mixed out marine layer and little onshore wind.
653 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The low associated with the remnants of Barry is currently located across western Arkansas this afternoon. Cooler conditions are occurring across the area today as temperatures are currently in the 70s with the clouds and rain in place. The low will spread east during the day ending the rain from west to east by Tuesday night. Cooler conditions will remain over the eastern Ozarks where highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected Tuesday. A warm air mass will begin to spread in to from the west allowing highs to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s across southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri Tuesday afternoon.
615 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The large scale pattern consisted of fast zonal flow situated over the northern tier states along with a high pressure dome over the southwestern CONUS and a closed low over the lower MS valley region.
The broad upper trough will remain in place over the Northwest through Tuesday with onshore flow and little change in the weather other than no thunderstorms expected over the east. Subtle ridging thereafter will allow for continued dry and slightly warmer weather through late week.
1029 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Ridging across the Florida peninsula continues to result in a rather unremarkable pattern across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. Much of this moisture is located in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, with mixed layer CAPE well over 2000 J/kg and very little convective inhibition. From the synopsis: A high pressure cell will extend west across Florida through the forecast period.
/issued 335 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ Models continue to show a typical summer time pattern, with high pressure over the western Atlantic bringing and east to southeast low and steering flow to South Florida. At 500mb, there is general ridging, with temps around -7C, plus or minus. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to maintain the east to southeast wind over the area through the weekend.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ Not much change to the current forecast, as upper-lvl ridging persists over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This will allow the ridge to fill in to the east, and the low-lvl thermal ridge to shift from western NM to eastern, resulting in above-normal temperatures thru the extended. W/the return of Gulf moisture to the area, chances for convection the next few days will increase, although not by much, and mainly over the higher terrain as upslope flow/orography will be the only focus for development. The only exceptions continue to be Wed/Thu nights, when models hint at bringing disturbances thru the ridge.
732 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly less suppression from the upper level ridge over the region combined with the sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions lead to increased coverage of showers and storms across the forecast area during the afternoon with some locally heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning being observed. High pressure over the region will maintain light east-southeast winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the rest of tonight and through the remainder of the week with a weak pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
There should be fewer (if any) cumulus clouds tomorrow, as the lower atmosphere dries out.
936 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Cloud cover associated with Tropical Depression Barry has kept a damper on temperatures this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s as of 3 pm.
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to build into the area east of the remains of Barry. A few of the high resolution models suggest widely scattered thunderstorms mainly across the central Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont. High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the area's weather through mid week as the remnants of "Barry" move up the Mississippi and into the Ohio River Valley. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
616 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Cloud cover associated with Tropical Depression Barry has kept a damper on temperatures this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s as of 3 pm.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 74 90 / 10 10 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 72 88 / 10 10 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 72 93 71 86 / 10 10 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 91 67 88 / 20 20 10 70.
/issued 213 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The circulation from the remnant low of Barry is currently moving north over Arkansas while an upper ridge is expanding back into West Texas from the west. The temperatures at 1 pm are into the low to mid 90s across the region, and we'll likely see highs today reach the upper 90s in many locations. This evening and Tuesday, the core of the upper ridge will move farther east into West Texas, resulting in an expansion and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. The increased subsidence from the building ridge should inhibit afternoon shower/thunderstorm development.
Models indicated the shallow long wave trough off the West Coast will push over the western U. NBM output was suspiciously cool and adjusted temperatures upward toward warmer MOS guidance for all locations.
Current temperatures obs are on track with the forecast and they should end up in the low 70s by early Tuesday morning.
833 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. With ridge of high pressure across the region, expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies overnight with light winds. Current dewpoints range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the northern Midlands to the lower to middle 70s across the central Midlands and CSRA. Will continue with current forecast of overnight temperatures in the lower/middle 70s. High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the area's weather through mid week as the remnants of "Barry" move up the Mississippi and into the Ohio River Valley. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
257 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 A cold front will slip through the region today. Some gusty winds and small hail are possible, but severe potential likely limited because of cooler temps today. Most of the convection should die off this evening with drier and cooler weather likely for Wednesday.
332 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather will persist across the forecast area again today, with the subtropical ridge dominating. The center of the upper ridge will be over New Mexico and far West Texas today, with little change to the strength of the low level thermal ridge.
High pressure over the region today will move offshore Wednesday.
1124 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The large scale pattern consisted of fast zonal flow situated over the northern tier states along with a high pressure dome over the southwestern CONUS and a closed low over the lower MS valley region.
There should be fewer (if any) cumulus clouds tomorrow, as the lower atmosphere dries out. /issued 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ A mid level ridge will build over the southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday.
Mid-upper level ridge will be centered over south Ga today with hot conditions persisting.
1042 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Cold front associated with a short wave north of the arrowhead of Minnesota may aid in initiating thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota through the evening hours. With higher amounts of cloud cover, have hedged slightly cooler on highs despite unseasonably warm air remaining aloft.
An upper ridge will build over the area in the wake of the departure of Barry.
Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, but it will still feel muggy with dewpoints in the 70s. 0-3 km shear also increases to near 30 kts and model hodographs show decent curvature in the lowest kilometer.
Mid level ridge and the remnants of Barry will continue to be the main players of the weather for the next several days. Have continued with the highest precipitation chances along the areas of higher terrain in the afternoon, but can't rule out storms forming along left over boundaries from storms in the area yesterday.
With the lower-deck component slowly becoming a downslope variant, the atmosphere would definitely turn up the thermostat. The GFS wants to quickly develop an upper-deck cyclone over MT & ID then drives the cyclone along the Canadian/U.
The Subtropical Ridge regains its mid July dominance in shutting down convective development. The convergence bands feeding into former Tropical Cyclone Barry have moved off to the northeast and the surface boundaries have dissipated as southerly lower level flow has returned to all areas.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal with lows Tuesday morning in the lower 70s. Temperatures will be warmer on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will be similar to tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. An upper level ridge will start to build into the area Wednesday night and remain over the region into the weekend.
A subtle ridging pattern over the Central Plains will weaken wind fields aloft during this time, though at least some modest effective shear and elevated instability may support the continued upstream threat of hail and strong wind gusts should storms make it to northwest Missouri late this evening.
MLCIN should keep things in check until about 21z, save for the higher terrain in the early afternoon.
In the off chance an isolated storm develops it should remain over the higher terrain, and any cumulus clouds that develop will also be tied to the higher terrain.
Deep layer ridging will allow above average high temperatures and suppress rain chances.
The broad upper trough will remain in place over the Northwest through Tuesday with onshore flow and little change in the weather other than no thunderstorms expected over the east. Subtle ridging thereafter will allow for continued dry and slightly warmer weather through late week. The lower conditions will redevelop Tuesday evening, persisting into Wednesday morning.
152 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. With ridge of high pressure across the region, expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies overnight with near calm winds. Will continue with current forecast of overnight temperatures in the lower/middle 70s. High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the area's weather through mid week as the remnants of "Barry" move up the Mississippi and into the Ohio River Valley. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Center currently showing up over southwest MO, with closed upper low nearly vertically stacked. This upper low will finally open up later today, with resulting trough making only small eastward move. By 00Z, do expected a pretty solid line of showers/storms extreme west ahead of approaching upper trough. Upper trough axis however will not clear the area until early Wed evening, thus expected fairly widespread development to continue tonight through tomorrow evening. Following passing upper trough. ridging does build in but it is not clean. Dirty upper ridges break down late Sun and a weak upper trough across the eastern US drives a cold front through the area of Mon, and much better rain chances. This front will also bring us a slightly drier and cooler airmass on Tue.
After today, we will be under influence of upper ridge that will build east across the southern Plains through the week.
421 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Under mostly clear skies and east winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. A persistent, east-west oriented high pressure system will be locked in over the Sunshine State, and the adjacent Gulf and the Atlantic ocean over the next several days. Otherwise, high temperatures will average in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s away from any downpours. Little change in the overall pattern with the persistent western Atlantic high pressure cell holding firm across the central portion of the Florida Peninsula.
High pressure will then begin to bounce back toward the Four Corners with a gradual return of moisture. The trough passing to the north is bringing very dry upper level air over the area and pushing the moisture off to the southeast. Expect near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon in western Yavapai and Coconino Counties with gusts to 30 mph due to the trough. The high temperatures will continue with an Excessive Heat Warning remaining in effect through 8pm Tuesday for portions of the low desert in central Arizona (including southern Yavapai County) as well as lower elevations in the Grand Canyon including Phantom Ranch.
The flow aloft will be weak on the northeast side of the upper high, but they may be just strong enough to bring mountain convection this way. On Wednesday, an upper level short wave trough is expected to push through the northern part of the ridge and across the northern CWA.
Models indicated the shallow long wave trough off the West Coast will push over the western U. NBM output was suspiciously cool and adjusted temperatures upward toward warmer MOS guidance for all locations. Models suggest the drying trend will continue into Wednesday as the trough over the western U.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains around or just after noon today and then move northeastward over the lower elevations. Upper flow becomes a drier zonal flow behind departing trough Wednesday.