Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Monday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control the area's weather through the short term.
The current surface pattern is dominated by a 1022mb high pressure over southern Manitoba.
Even warmer weather will be in store for Monday when highs climb well into the 70s. It was a crisp start to the morning across central IL, with temps bottoming out in the low to mid 30s in most locations. High pressure continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois early this morning, resulting in clear skies and light winds. As a result, some of the coldest temperatures in the lower 30s are currently noted across the SE CWA. After frosty early morning lows in the lower to middle 30s, ample sunshine and southwesterly winds will boost afternoon highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than recent nights with readings only dropping into the lower 40s.
219 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will move offshore early in the week. A backdoor cold front will likely approach Monday before dissipating the following day.
At the surface, weak cold front extends from northeast Iowa to central lower Michigan. Air mass behind the front is not much cooler and as the front loses momentum over the area, stage is set for another seasonably warm day Monday. The weak gradient in the vicinity of the front should allow afternoon lake breeze to form and likely push the effective front back south a bit over northeast Illinois, with somewhat cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan tomorrow afternoon.
213 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure promotes dry fall weather through the beginning of the week.
A stable day under persistent high pressure has lead to a sunny day across the Northern Rockies, but has also allowed for hazy skies this afternoon.
147 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Low pressure, centered over Sonora Mexico, will continue a moist and unstable easterly flow over Southern California this afternoon, with more scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop over the mountains and track westward into the valleys. Another upper- level low will drop south along the California Coast on Monday to replace the low over northwest Mexico.
However, there should be a lull in precipitation this evening as this period lift moves off the northeast and the next approaches in the form of a compact upper level vort max being ejected from the seemingly ever-present, but now opening, upper level low that has been over northwestern Mexico.
Tonight marks a transition period in the flow aloft as the recent northwesterly component transitions to southwesterly ahead of ejecting upper low across the southwest states.
227 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will be over the area for the next 3 days promoting dry weather.
A blocking area of high pressure is forecast to remain along the west coast with nearly dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. A weak weather system moving around the high is currently tracking south over northern California and northwest Nevada. Road surfaces for the high Sierra passes, Sonora, Tioga, and CA-203 near Minaret Summit, may turn slick either from the rain or a brief coating of slush/small hail. The mid-week "cool-down" is all but gone from the ensemble solutions with afternoon highs staying in the low 80s across western NV valleys with 70s for the Sierra. However, overnight lows may dip below freezing a bit more frequently this week, be prepared for mid-upper 20s for the Sierra valleys and low 30s for outlying valleys across western NV.
314 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the short term period.
(This evening through Monday Night) Today's benign weather should continue this evening as high pressure at 850mb looms over E/SE Texas. Feint ridging will begin to develop aloft as a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula/SW CONUS becomes ingested into the broader upper level flow.
244 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 A pattern change will get underway over the next 24-30 hours as the broad longwave trof over eastern NOAM shifts eastward leading to height rises over our region on Monday, and a broad and deepening longwave trof evolving from western Canada through the northern Rockies into the central Plains. Overall the pattern with light low level southwest winds favors slightly warmer temperatures tonight, although a few spots which are sheltered, especially in the eastern Ozarks or southern IL could get chilly again, possibly touching the upper 30s. Highs should average near 10 degrees above normal and be about 6-8 degrees warmer than today.
Highs will reach the upper 80s in Central Texas, with slightly cooler readings in the upper 70s along the Red River. This is a few degrees warmer than last night, compliments of the organizing southerly winds and rising dewpoints. An upper level low across the Sonoran Desert will weaken and lift northeastward across New Mexico and northwest Texas Monday. With the increasing southerly winds and warm air advection on Monday, highs will reach near 90 degrees across the southern zones to the low 80s in the north.
As clouds clear, fog is certainly possible overnight with calm conditions, and with temperatures widely expected to go below freezing, some freezing fog could also be possible.
216 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure promotes dry fall weather through the beginning of the week.
(This afternoon through Monday) At the surface, high pressure is branching across the Southeast with low to mid-level ridging centered over Texas. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer across the board tomorrow as the ridge builds eastward and initiates height rises.
This wave will bring in warmer 850mb temps across the west, aiding in temperatures climbing back into the 70s in the southwest. The east however will be cooler with temperatures in the lower 60s. Cooler and much windier will be the main weather to discuss this week.
1248 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Dry weather a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front.
226 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will continue to build southward across the area.
A weak high pressure will continue to keep rain chances at bay north of the I-4 corridor.
355 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 A cold front crosses our area by early this evening.
Highs on Monday range from the upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s over much of the remaining portion. /29 (Monday night through Sunday) Rain finally returns to the region by mid-week! Weak ridging in the mid and upper levels persists over the region and Gulf waters through the early part of the work week as a trough dives into the central portion of the CONUS.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, especially across the Delta, and lows will be in the mid and upper 50s/lower 60s.
1149 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will provide cool and mainly dry conditions through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will fizzle out as it drops in from the north later tonight and Monday.
With high pressure pushing into the region tonight expect quiet and clear conditions developing that should persist through Monday night.
135 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure continues the dry weather through the balance of the Holiday weekend, with a warming trend that continues into the middle of the work week. Allowed the Freeze and Frost products to expire on time as temperatures are warming above freezing under clear skies. Despite of plenty of sunshine, highs will reach the lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations. However, it will be few degrees warmer than yesterdays.
A similar day is in store for Monday with late morning/afternoon convection again firing along the higher terrain from Grand Junction south to the San Juans.
Dry conditions will lend themselves to swift cooling overnight and warmer than guidance/climo highs. Nudged lows a couple of degrees cooler tonight and Monday night than ensemble guidance.
A low pressure system dropping down the California Coast will lead to scattered showers and some thunderstorms around our region Monday.
Any precip associated with the passage of this trof tonight looks to remain southeast of our CWA.
Precipitation chances in the Sierra Nevada will be higher and more widespread Monday afternoon as a trough of low pressure passes southward across Central California. A few showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible along the Sierra Nevada crest in Fresno and Tulare Counties this afternoon well ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough of low pressure will swing southward across Central California Monday, resulting in higher and more widespread precipitation chances in the Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure and a cool, dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the rest of the weekend.
141 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a broad trough over the eastern CONUS, ridging over the west, with northwest flow over the northern plains.
940 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Forecast is on track this evening as high pressure remains in control. Light to calm winds with a clear sky is forecast overnight with areas of frost possible across northern East Tennessee through southwest Virginia as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s in these zones. Surface ridging remains in place on Monday with a mostly clear sky and near seasonable temperatures for the afternoon. For tonight, dry northwest flow and surface ridging will produce a clear night. For Monday, ridging surface and developing aloft will produce another sunny day.
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Dry weather a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere, where some passing clouds and wisp of wind may keep the temp up a couple degrees warmer than last night.
A low pressure system will slowly exit southern Arizona. The low pressure system hanging out in southern Arizona the last several days will finally weaken and slowly exit the region into Monday.
Included some mention around Park Rapids area as several of the high res models have something develop, No impacts are expected for the short term period. The current surface pattern is dominated by a 1022mb high pressure over southern Manitoba.
A slight chance of isolated light showers over the high Sierra today and tomorrow. Temperatures this week around 5-10 degrees cooler than last week, though still above normal.
539 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Dry weather a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere, where some passing clouds and wisp of wind may keep the temp up a couple degrees warmer than last night.
622 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Today's benign weather should continue this evening as high pressure at 850mb looms over E/SE Texas. Feint ridging will begin to develop aloft as a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula/SW CONUS becomes ingested into the broader upper level flow.
1005 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will continue to build southward across the area.
533 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 A pattern change will get underway over the next 24-30 hours as the broad longwave trof over eastern NOAM shifts eastward leading to height rises over our region on Monday, and a broad and deepening longwave trof evolving from western Canada through the northern Rockies into the central Plains. Overall the pattern with light low level southwest winds favors slightly warmer temperatures tonight, although a few spots which are sheltered, especially in the eastern Ozarks or southern IL could get chilly again, possibly touching the upper 30s. Highs should average near 10 degrees above normal and be about 6-8 degrees warmer than today.
Low temperatures tonight will drop to the upper 50s in inland SE GA, the lower 60s inland NE FL, and the upper 60s on the coast.
1040 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will be over the area for the next 3 days promoting dry weather.
726 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will continue to build southward across the area.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the short term period.
(Tonight through Monday Night) Weak sfc ridging remains anchored from the TN valley SW into E TX this evening, and will linger over the region overnight through much of Monday before gradually retreating to the E. While the thinning of the elevated cigs have allowed for temps to quickly drop within the dry air mass and the sfc ridging in place, this should slow overnight as the short term progs remain in agreement with AC cigs redeveloping late along the weak troughing overhead, and along the Nrn periphery of H850-700 ridging anchored over E TX. Did make some minor downward min temp adjustments over portions of NCntrl LA, which should largely be unaffected by these cigs and should see temps fall into the lower 50s once again.
629 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure will be over the area for the next 3 days promoting dry weather.
925 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (Issued 924 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022) The weak and decaying cold front is currently along the WI and IL border and will stall over nrn IL late tnt-Mon. High pressure will move from the nrn Great Lakes to the Lower Great Lakes through Mon. With high pressure pushing into the region tonight expect quiet and clear conditions developing that should persist through Monday night.
646 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control the area's weather through the short term.
An amplified upper ridge remains positioned offshore from the West Coast this afternoon. Downstream from the ridge, a weak upper disturbance was moving south across interior portions of Oregon, Northern California, and Northeast Nevada.
838 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will move offshore early in the week. A backdoor cold front will likely approach Monday before dissipating the following day.
302 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Another pleasant fall day is ongoing as weak ridging prevails over the forecast area. The wind will decrease after sunset Monday in the lower elevations, but will continue overnight in the mountains as a stronger system approaches.
Then tomorrow afternoon winds increase all sites as a cold front moves across, with sustained winds 10-20kts and gusts 20-30kts.
516 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a broad trough over the eastern CONUS, ridging over the west, with northwest flow over the northern plains.
(This evening through Monday) Our area currently resides under a split flow regime with northwest flow just to our north (along the backside of the longwave trough axis that extends from Quebec to Lake Erie) and a cut off low positioned over Sonora, Mexico. The main changes with this package are higher POPs over southwest OK and western north Texas tomorrow and earlier arrival of the rain, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating trof out acrs the MO RVR Valley into western IA, while the main front was draped from the northwestern high plains, east-southeastward thru the GRT LKS. Then clearing with weak sfc boundary/trof settling southward acrs the local area into Monday morning. Some chance for at least patchy fog in the vicinity of convergent light winds near the trof or possible weak sfc wave on it acrs portions of northwestern IL late, but still uncertain of extent and coverage. This process ahead of the next upstream short wave upper trof digging acrs the Dakotas and NE. Fcst soundings show mixing warm advection under H7 to H75 MB inversion, enough to boost high temps into the low to mid 70s acrs much of the CWA as long as we have plenty of insolation.
544 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure promotes dry fall weather through the beginning of the week.
644 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday) Our area currently resides under a split flow regime with northwest flow just to our north (along the backside of the longwave trough axis that extends from Quebec to Lake Erie) and a cut off low positioned over Sonora, Mexico. The main changes with this package are higher POPs over southwest OK and western north Texas tomorrow and earlier arrival of the rain, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
The upper level pattern also makes sense here as high pressure is building later into tonight, which will help compress the boundary layer, increase the inversion strength and limit mixing low level mixing. All of these features are signs of dense fog during the cooler season in the valleys. The northerly flow appears to increase ahead of the next approaching upper level trough. There is a little hope here as a dry cold front is expected to move through sometime Monday night.
904 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Dry weather a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere, where some passing clouds and wisp of wind may keep the temp up a couple degrees warmer than last night.
The eastern plains will fall into the low 40s to upper 30s, the mountain valleys cooling into the upper 20s to low 30s, and the mountains dropping into the 20s. This will also help to strengthen the orographic forcing over the high terrain.
540 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Another pleasant fall day is ongoing as weak ridging prevails over the forecast area. The wind will decrease after sunset Monday in the lower elevations, but will continue overnight in the mountains as a stronger system approaches.
This is due to a high over the eastern United States, Tropical Storm Julia over Nicaragua, and a weak inverted trough over the Bahamas. A ridge across the eastern United States and Julia moving westward across Nicaragua will maintain gentle to moderate breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
716 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 High pressure promotes dry fall weather through the beginning of the week.
930 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Low pressure, centered over Sonora Mexico, will continue a moist and unstable easterly flow over Southern California this afternoon, with more scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop over the mountains and track westward into the valleys. Another upper- level low will drop south along the California Coast on Monday to replace the low over northwest Mexico.
Look for highs to climb into the lower 70s today across the plains, cooler in the mountains.
07z temperatures vary from the low 30s in the deeper valleys to low and mid 40s atop the ridges. Agreement through the short term period remains in tact, as a broad mid level trough continues to edge eastward through the day today.
400 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures today. A weak cold front will stretch across the I-80 corridor this morning and remain there for the rest of the day.
This forcing will support a surface anticyclone centering directly over Southeast Michigan during the daylight hours. The backdoor cold front from last evening has since stalled out across far northern IN and OH.
1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday) Our area currently resides under a split flow regime with northwest flow just to our north (along the backside of the longwave trough axis that extends from Quebec to Lake Erie) and a cut off low positioned over Sonora, Mexico. The main changes with this package are higher POPs over southwest OK and western north Texas tomorrow and earlier arrival of the rain, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
109 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Forecast is on track this evening as high pressure remains in control. Light to calm winds with a clear sky is forecast overnight with areas of frost possible across northern East Tennessee through southwest Virginia as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s in these zones. Surface ridging remains in place on Monday with a mostly clear sky and near seasonable temperatures for the afternoon. For tonight, dry northwest flow and surface ridging will produce a clear night. For Monday, ridging surface and developing aloft will produce another sunny day.
At the surface, high pressure is centered along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and will continue to support mainly dry offshore flow across our area into the overnight hours. /NF/ Tomorrow through Sunday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow with broad southwest flow aloft across the Gulf States and weak troughing extending through the Great Plains. Farther upstream, a stout Pacific jet will be draped from southern Alaska into British Columbia and Alberta on the poleward side of an amplified ridge off the West Coast. Heading into the middle of the week, this jet is progged to carve out a deep longwave trough as it digs through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. The forecast starts off dry tomorrow with high temperatures well into the low to mid 80s.
High pressure overhead is providing benign weather conditions, and will continua to do so as we head into the work week.
Given the continued clear skies supporting rather efficient radiative cooling, some of the higher valleys in the Eastern Mountains and Central Oregon likely see temperatures drop into the 30s and potentially 20s following the trend seen in observed lows the last several nights. Otherwise, the primary feature moving forward is an amplifying trough passing just to the east of the CWA later on Monday.
202 AM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022 A ridge in NW flow aloft today will bring warm and dry weather to the region.
Winds increase during the afternoon as a cold front moves across, with widespread speeds 10-20kts and gusts 25-35kts. Given the continued clear skies supporting rather efficient radiative cooling, some of the higher valleys in the Eastern Mountains and Central Oregon likely see temperatures drop into the 30s and potentially 20s following the trend seen in observed lows the last several nights. Otherwise, the primary feature moving forward is an amplifying trough passing just to the east of the CWA later on Monday.
Drier and slightly warmer weather then develops for the middle and latter parts of the week. Low pressure centered over the Arizona/Mexico border is bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon.
1137 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) Today's benign weather should continue this evening as high pressure at 850mb looms over E/SE Texas. Feint ridging will begin to develop aloft as a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula/SW CONUS becomes ingested into the broader upper level flow.
Broad upper level longwave troughing remains in place over the entire CONUS at the beginning of the short term period, with lower heights and stronger flow over the Midwest and New England. As this feature progresses, surface lee troughing will develop in eastern CO/WY, resulting in south to south-southwest winds increasing across southwest KS. Consequently, overnight lows will be noticeably warmer, with temperatures dropping only into the low to mid 50s.
1257 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures today. A weak cold front will stretch across the I-80 corridor this morning and remain there for the rest of the day.
1039 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a broad trough over the eastern CONUS, ridging over the west, with northwest flow over the northern plains.
850 mb warm advection in force with warmer air making it to the sfc resulting in highs about 4-8 degrees warmer than on Sunday. 850 mb thermal ridge peaks over E ND 12z-15z and then into MN 18z-21z. Cold front moves east with a rapid fall in 850 mb temps but sfc temps fall a bit slower at first. Timing of cold front will affect timing of high temperatures.