Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures continue to vary quite a bit depending on what side of the boundary with readings in the lower 50s to mid 70s. Temperatures will remain well above normal on Thursday with highs from the lower 60s to mid 70s.
551 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021 Latest 19z surface analysis shows high pressure over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.
253 PM MST Wed Dec 29 2021 Upper trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the upper low still over Saskatchewan. At the surface, a trough/boundary stretches across southern SD, and high pressure is moving across ND. Highs Thursday are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than those of today, under partly cloudy skies. Thursday night, a piece of energy will eject from the approaching trough, beneath the right entrance region of the jet streak.
408 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021 An active pattern will keep periodic precipitation chances in the forecast through the week, with a potent low pressure system set to impact the area this weekend and bring in more seasonable weather conditions. Precipitation chances may increase late in the day as a warm front approaches the region from the south amid strong cyclogenesis in the Colorado High Plains with a deepening trough aloft. The deepening Rockies trough is expected to supplant the sern U. ridge as it moves east late Fri through the weekend. Dry air/subsidence should dissipate precipitation with trough/cold front passage Sun, leaving dry wx and temperature closer to seasonable numbers for the start of the next work week.
1000 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021 Fair and stable weather conditions continued to prevail over the local islands over the last 24 hours due to solid ridges nestled over the region. The ridges have inhibited shower development during the afternoons and early evenings the previous 48 hours. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will continue to prevail through the end of the work week, as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Winds will veer to the south and increase this weekend ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
A cirrus deck across South Texas today has kept temperatures a bit cooler for locations out west that so far have only hit the low 80s. Tomorrow expect afternoon temperatures to climb into the low to upper 80s across the region and tomorrow night's lows again will range in the 60s.
All terminals will start VFR and will stay that way through at least 21Z, but conditions will become poor after 21Z as a low pressure system moves across the areas with showers and scattered storms followed by low clouds and areas of BR.
541 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021 Key Points: * Potential for freezing drizzle this evening from Kirksville to Moberly.
Not much in the way of mesoscale forcing with this system, so the higher amounts may be from high snow to liquid ratios.
Snow in the mountains and rain in the lower elevations will come to an end on Thursday morning as the system moves to the east. High pressure will then build over the region this weekend for a return to dry weather. Areas of scattered showers continued to move across the lower Valley this morning with snow occuring across Sierra Nevada.
Temperatures are trending colder over north-central Montana today after a cold front brought periods of snow.
This will draw warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures pushing a little above 5C across central and southwest Kansas.
Still looks like MVFR ceilings/vsbys should prevail with IFR ceilings/vsbys possibly 30/06Z W-30/20Z E before ceiling erosion 30/17Z W-30/20Z E as ridging influences surface and aloft progressively move west to east across mid state region.
Where winds ease, IFR or lower VISBYs in dense fog are possible, especially near cooler inland bays.
Otherwise, temperatures could be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, with slightly warmer 850mb temps, plenty of sunshine, and downsloping southwesterly surface winds developing by afternoon. Tonight, slightly more wind at the surface, along with higher dewpoints should result in overnight lows being a few degrees warmer as well.
1008 PM MST Wed Dec 29 2021 Upper trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the upper low still over Saskatchewan. At the surface, a trough/boundary stretches across southern SD, and high pressure is moving across ND. Highs Thursday are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than those of today, under partly cloudy skies. Thursday night, a piece of energy will eject from the approaching trough, beneath the right entrance region of the jet streak.
1124 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021 Key Points: * Potential for freezing drizzle this evening from Kirksville to Moberly.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 55 70 64 74 / 10 20 60 90 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 54 70 61 72 / 20 10 60 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 66 51 68 61 70 / 10 10 50 80 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 50 66 55 71 / 20 10 40 80 90.
Have also extended the advisory out in time until 10 am given the low sun angle and continued light winds through the morning hours.
Light south winds will return in the afternoon and then pick up tonight as a warm front works northward.
Fortunately it looks to be above freezing there so there should not be any icing issues.
A steady but gradual increase in cloud cover later this afternoon through the overnight, out ahead of a closed low that is just now beginning to pinch off from the Polar Jet into the SE Pacific, will lead to a more mild overnight into early Friday. During the day, an upper level low will continue to lift to the northeast from near Baja California.
Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday as 850mb temperatures continue to rise, with highs expected to range from the lower to middle 20s across the north, with highs of 30 to 35 across east- central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.
VFR should return after 14Z as the low clouds and fog erode with VFR expected the remainder of the day.
250 AM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over east central WY, with nearly stationary frontal boundary lying just to the south of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough from the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and across CA, sliding east- southeastward. Cold and occasionally unsettled weather will continue New Years Day as the large scale trough sinks south and east, moving into the southern Plains by the weekend. Additional energy on the northern side of the main trough will clip the area tonight and Friday, with good chances for light snow and flurries, especially from northeast WY to the Black Hills area and southern SD.
Deep layer ridging will hold firm through the remainder of the work- week.
A low pressure system is currently making its way into the Northern Rockies which will causing widespread snow. Clearwater and Idaho counties should expected to receive between 4 to 7 inches over the next 24 hours, heavier amounts in the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over the region this weekend. This ridge will cause a decrease in precipitation, but uncertainty lies on how much warming will the valleys experience.
A warm front will begin to lift north on Thursday with southerly winds returning to the Natural State.
Meanwhile, a few lingering rain showers persist well offshore of the Big Sur Coast as a mid/upper level trough axis and associated low pressure system continues to drift southward toward southern California. In wake of this passing system, expect clearing sky conditions and slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. While the region warms slightly, temperatures will remain a few to around 5 deg F below seasonal averages in response to the broad mid/upper level trough lingering over the West Coast.
Highway 14 will have the hardest time warming up and may only reach the lower to mid 20s as cold air sags south behind a weak wave moving east. Still fighting some drier air that wants to spread south around 850 mb through the afternoon into the night, but there may be a marginally skinny band of snow that develops near the 750 mb mid level forcing before the lower level air dries out.
The low levels remain saturated, evident via 12Z RAOB at KPIT. Precipitation chances may increase late in the day on Friday as a warm front approaches the region from the south amid strong cyclogenesis in the Colorado High Plains with a deepening trough aloft. Long range model ensembles indicate that a large scale trough in both northern and southern jet streams will impact the Ohio Valley.
midlevel moisture/ice nuclei are rapidly stripped away and looks like a quick transition to freezing drizzle (again warmer in SE so just drizzle). Still expect a narrow corridor with "sweet spot" combo of surface temps below freezing and enough moisture to support precip generally along the US-24 corridor. Little/no snow accumulation is expected and impacts to the early morning commute will be focused on only those isolated areas that manage to see a more prolonged period of freezing drizzle. Fast moving short wave whips across the Great Lakes region tonight with a quick shot of snow and a mix of freezing rain.
Mostly clear skies will help get the high temperatures across the area into the mid 60s.
The main low center with this system will track from eastern Wyoming to eastern Colorado/Kansas tonight as high pressure begins to nose back in from the northwest. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the single digits below to the lower teens below zero, with just slightly warmer lows right around zero across south central South Dakota.
Initially, northwesterly flow aloft will be in place as the main upper trough that has been churning over the northern Plains finally translates eastward. Remember, that frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 5-10 minutes with temperatures and wind chill values this low.
Temperatures today will not be as warm as yesterday, but they will slightly rebound for Friday as a cold front approaches the area.
440 AM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over east central WY, with nearly stationary frontal boundary lying just to the south of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough from the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and across CA, sliding east- southeastward. Cold and occasionally unsettled weather will continue New Years Day as the large scale trough sinks south and east, moving into the southern Plains by the weekend. Additional energy on the northern side of the main trough will clip the area tonight and Friday, with good chances for light snow and flurries, especially from northeast WY to the Black Hills area and southern SD.
Then, a cold front this afternoon brings Arctic cold back into the forecast area tonight and wind chills will quickly drop back into warning criteria (-40 and lower) north and advisory criteria (-20 to -39) south this evening.
By later this morning the low clouds and fog will begin to erode and burn off as daytime heating and mixing gets underway with increasing amounts of sunshine and improving visibilities expected which will continue into the afternoon. Similar to previous days high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across the south-central peninsula will support another warm dry day over the forecast area with temperatures again climbing into the upper 70s along the coast, and the lower to mid 80s over inland areas during the afternoon. High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending back to the west across the south-central peninsula will maintain a south to southwest wind flow around 10 knots near shore, and around 15 knots offshore with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters through the remainder of the day.
Strong heating of the warm sector airmass south of the front has allowed for temperatures to rise into the lower 80s with dewpoints around 70 degrees. Deep convection is ongoing along the low level convergence zone associated with the frontal boundary. Any deep convection that can fire along the front will likely tap in to the moderate instability and stronger deep layer shear to organize at least mid level mesocyclones that will be capable of sporadic bouts of large hail and damaging winds. Dense fog will likely become an issue later this evening near the coast and across area bays and sounds where a favorable set up will exist as warm humid air overspreads the cooler waters in these areas.
which may be more prevalent as a warm front lifts north around sunrise Fri. A warm front will begin to lift north on Thursday with southerly winds returning to the Natural State.
1015 AM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over east central WY, with nearly stationary frontal boundary lying just to the south of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough from the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and across CA, sliding east- southeastward. Cold and occasionally unsettled weather will continue New Years Day as the large scale trough sinks south and east, moving into the southern Plains by the weekend. Additional energy on the northern side of the main trough will clip the area tonight and Friday, with good chances for light snow and flurries, especially from northeast WY to the Black Hills area and southern SD.
But as high pressure builds in from the northwest at the same time with a dry northerly wind, questions remain about how far north the snow can get. The main low center with this system will track from eastern Wyoming to eastern Colorado/Kansas tonight as high pressure begins to nose back in from the northwest. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the single digits below to the lower teens below zero, with just slightly warmer lows right around zero across south central South Dakota.
Light precipitation chance will gradually come to an end this afternoon as supported jet ascent propagates eastward, and subtle ridging develops.
This region will be between high pressure to the south southeast and a trough to the northwest this period. Waves of energy will move northeast along the trough to the northwest, creating convective activity.
144 PM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Scattered snow showers over the area this afternoon are exiting/diminishing as another cold front sweeps southeast through the area this afternoon.
On the backside of this cloud shield, the loss of upper level ice nucleation in combination with low-level saturation and freezing surface temperatures is resulting in some reports of freezing drizzle in forecast areas to the southwest. In our southern and eastern counties, freezing drizzle and light snow is possible tomorrow afternoon as low level saturation sticks around with potential loss of upper level ice and adequate low level forcing. A positively tilted upper level trough digs across the Rocky Mountains tomorrow night, picking up previously marooned mid level vorticity lobes near the four corners.
Otherwise, expect warmer lows tonight (mid 40s to mid 50s) due to some cloud cover and significantly higher dew points, with Friday featuring another day of highs in the low to mid 70s in the Big Country and northern Concho Valley, with warmer conditions elsewhere (mid 70s to low 80s) in the CWA where the 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen. Under the influence of an upper level trough bringing consistent southerly flow and increased low level moisture, as well as some weak lift/instability, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected later friday evening and into the overnight period for parts of the Big Country and Heartland. A strong cold front will move quickly south through the area New Years Day and evening, with falling afternoon temperatures across the Big Country, potentially into the upper 40s.
Otherwise, expect warmer lows tonight (mid 40s to mid 50s) due to some cloud cover and significantly higher dew points, with Friday featuring another day of highs in the low to mid 70s in the Big Country and northern Concho Valley, with warmer conditions elsewhere (mid 70s to low 80s) in the CWA where the 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen.
132 PM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Upper trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with a jet streak pushing into ND.
207 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021 Visible satellite highlights the Cuban land breeze that was moving across the Lower Keys this morning has not moved much and is now over the central Lower Keys. With the abundant sunshine, temperatures have reached the lower 80s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, it is hard to believe it is a late December day.
A Cuban land breeze is once again moving across the Lower Keys this morning and providing some cloud cover to the westernmost island communities. Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail today through Friday, as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Winds will veer to the southeast to south and freshen Friday night into the weekend, ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
Quiet weather is expected overnight before we see some light snow spread across central Minnesota ahead of a cold front by late tomorrow morning. Temperatures fall further through the afternoon behind the cold front as a frigid airmass settles in across the region.
Morning lows for the first day of the new year will drop by several degrees from Sacramento and south when more widespread freezing temperatures are forecast.
413 PM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Upper trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with a jet streak pushing into ND.
We are still awaiting the incoming cold front/wind shift, which sits draped across northwest North Dakota. The primary upper low over Canada will dig further down into southern Manitoba overnight, which will help push a reinforcing surge of arctic air down into our counties.
This evening through tonight, a weak cold front will move northwest to southeast through the forecast area which will bring a re-enforcing shot of colder air and slightly stronger (10 kts or so) north-northwesterly winds. Tomorrow night, it is possible areas currently under the advisory will reach wind chill warning criteria due to high pressure passing near the southwest corner of the state (slightly less wind, but colder temperatures, especially southwest).
With the low level moisture being in coastal MS and off the SE LA coast, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the overnight and early morning hours. The mid to upper levels are fairly dry and capping does exist in the lower levels. Once the front moves through temps are expected to decrease as the high settles in behind the front. -21/KWO At the start of the long range forecast, the upper level trough moves over the region, bring ridging and a lot of cold air advection.
The primary upper low over Canada will dig further down into southern Manitoba overnight, which will help push a reinforcing surge of arctic air down into our counties.
Near record warm temps again tomorrow afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s due to deep, persistent southerly flow as well as a warm front lifting north. The warm front stalls to our north tomorrow afternoon, leaving us with ample warmth and moisture to set up a severe weather event to ring in the New Year. By tomorrow evening, the aforementioned frontal boundary will finally be overtaken by an incoming strong cold front.
In the wake of this morning's wave of light precipitation, high pressure will limit precipitation in the early evening, but increasing jet-enhanced ascent will maintain clouds/fog and may lead to the development of light precipitation late tonight primarily in the I-80 corridor.
Upper trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with a jet streak pushing into ND.
A trough will bring gusty northwest winds to the mountains and deserts Friday afternoon and evening.
1007 PM MST Thu Dec 30 2021 Upper trough persists over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with a jet streak pushing into ND.
Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Nearby ridging will continue to dominate, maintaining light east to southeast flow. A ridge across South Florida will maintain light east to southeast flow across Keys waters overnight.
A trough is moving overhead, ushering in cooler air from the north. Expect Friday to be cooler, with the coldest night of the past few seasons on Friday night.
(Today and tonight) An active weather pattern is expected across west central Texas through tonight as a longwave trough starts to push through the Four Corners region. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly flow at the mid to high levels will increase moisture. A closed upper low currently over Baja California this morning will quickly get absorbed into the mid-level flow and provide some "quick- hitting" dynamics tonight. As a result, rain chances will be the highest overnight, mainly for our northern counties.
935 AM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Cloudy and warmer conditions are expected through Saturday morning.
Again, the highs for today were already established. The surface warm front moves in Saturday night with what should be rising overnight temperatures (lows Saturday night coming in the first half of the night).
(Today) A warm front has been working north through northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and will soon be north of the area.
A warm front will move north through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Training storms along the warm front could cause some flash flooding.
A warm front will lift north today with varying ceilings noted along it. At the sfc, a warm front will advance north across the state today bringing Td values in excess of 60 F to all but northwest AR. Beneath the SW flow aloft will be a nearly stationary cold front oriented in a similar fashion across the state. Based on the slower movement of the main H500 trough and arctic airmass, the severe threat on Saturday may be a bit higher than previously thought. The cold front will begin to progress into NW AR around midday Saturday and exit to the southeast by midnight.
A cold front will quickly move into the area tonight.
349 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 First and foremost, we're focused on the winter storm and rightfully so, but can't overlook the potential for impactful weather today in dense fog and freezing drizzle. Snow amounts have stayed pretty consistent from previous forecasts with generally 4-8 inches and the highest amounts favoring near/south of I-80.
Mid/upper level dry air, associated with full column ridging, will remain in place through Saturday. While fog will be possible once again tonight, it may be a little less dense or widespread with trajectories having more of a Gulf Stream influence rather then from the cooler GOMEX waters. Lows for New Year's Eve should fall to the low 60s across the interior, with mid 60s along the west coast, and temps closer to 70 along the east coast.
532 AM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. with a closed low off the SW CA coast, and a trough in the northern Rockies. There is also a broad trough in southern Canada which will pass north of the area today.
Warm front will lift northward today and then slow down by afternoon. Moving on, its looking like a better chance of severe on Saturday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through.
As the low moves east this evening showers will end over the mountains. Daytime highs will mainly be in the 40s to lower 50s for the warmer spots in the valley today and Saturday.
623 AM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 Cloudy and warmer conditions are expected through Saturday morning.
527 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 (Today and tonight) An active weather pattern is expected across west central Texas through tonight as a longwave trough starts to push through the Four Corners region. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly flow at the mid to high levels will increase moisture. A closed upper low currently over Baja California this morning will quickly get absorbed into the mid-level flow and provide some "quick- hitting" dynamics tonight. As a result, rain chances will be the highest overnight, mainly for our northern counties.
The Northern Rockies continues to be influenced by a weak upper level low pressure system. A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies this weekend. This ridge will give the region a respite in precipitation, but cold air will linger.