Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
352 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across central and southeast Illinois today ahead of a strong cold front. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a 1004mb low over southeast Iowa with a cold front extending southwestward to Oklahoma. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes and the front pushes eastward, scattered showers and thunderstorms will come to an end from west to east during the afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower teens northwest of the Illinois River to the middle 20s near the Indiana border. High pressure will bring cold/dry weather to the area on Wednesday as the front becomes stationary from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River Vally. The precip will begin as light snow, but will mix with freezing rain everywhere south of I-72 overnight as warmer air noses in aloft.
Arctic high pressure will be in place Wednesday night, with 925 mb temps around -20C.
The most extensive activity will be associated with the low level jet which is situated across our southern forecast area. This is the area of greatest threat for flooding and severe weather, however, thunderstorms are possible along the cold front itself as well. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, but they will drop quickly into the 40s and 30s behind the front, falling below freezing tonight.
Skies should be mostly sunny by afternoon as the trough axis aloft pushes into the area.
311 AM MST Tue Feb 22 2022 Longwave trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Basin, with upper ridge off the west coast.
529 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 (Today) The strong cold front is quickly moving southeast this morning, currently near the I-44 corridor.
Pwat values are on the high side for this time of year so the moisture is there.
540 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Key Messages: - Freezing drizzle ongoing early this morning may lead to some slick spots developing for the morning commute, especially along and west of I-35.
Tonight will be a very cold night as high pressure over Canada begins to drop southward.
Have been trying to keep pace with freezing drizzle development, light icing, and reduced visibility on leading edge of precip. Wind speeds won't be as quick as this morning's, but temps are expected to be about 5-15 degrees cooler.
Longwave trof continues to dig into the western U. Winds could be a bit breezy, but not overly strong with the Low centered right over the area. High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark today.
Deepening upper trof over the western US will continue to stream short wave energy over the region with a strengthening upper jet from the Southern Plains into New England providing upper divergence and broad synoptic ascent. The upper trough over the intermountain west will be positively tilted. Southwest flow aloft on Wednesday to bring a chance for light snow to the area, aided by a very strong 120-140KT jet max from New Mexico northeast to across the Lower Great Lakes.
All in all, ample forcing but with more of a focus northward (in the deformation region) and across NE IA/SW WI this morning (with the low level jet, low level Fgen). Freezing rain/drizzle is generally favored, but the introduction of the low level jet suggests convective elements. For snow, the heavier bands continue to shift a bit more northwest, but still looking at (roughly) 1 to 4 inches along/north of I-90 (with the higher amounts across north of I-94).
Starting with the temperatures and wind, temperatures will only reach the single digits to maybe the low teens today in south central Nebraska and possibly the upper teens in north central Kansas.
312 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Impressive cold front nearly through the southeast corner of Kansas at 08Z with temps rapidly falling to the single digits in north-central Kansas. Low levels are moist enough to support light precipitation squeezing out of the frontal surface, with drizzle and freezing drizzle in eastern locations and very light snow in the west. Freezing drizzle at the NWS office has persisted for a few hours but pavements remain only wet at this writing, thanks to recent very warm conditions. 2 inch soil temps were still in the middle 30s to lower 40s across eastern Kansas at 2:30 AM and should limit ground impacts from the freezing drizzle to bridges and overpasses. The colder scenario also should bring ice crystals into the cloud quicker than guidance, further limiting freezing drizzle duration.
603 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across central and southeast Illinois today ahead of a strong cold front. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a 1004mb low over southeast Iowa with a cold front extending southwestward to Oklahoma. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes and the front pushes eastward, scattered showers and thunderstorms will come to an end from west to east during the afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower teens northwest of the Illinois River to the middle 20s near the Indiana border. High pressure will bring cold/dry weather to the area on Wednesday as the front becomes stationary from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River Vally. The precip will begin as light snow, but will mix with freezing rain everywhere south of I-72 overnight as warmer air noses in aloft.
Another slider drops into the Intermountain West late in the week, and while it won't offer much in the way of moisture, it sends a shallow backdoor cold front through northern Nevada.
With the lowering of forecast temperatures, this brings into play potentially even more severe cold conditions across the region, and many locations across central and southwest Montana now have forecast wind chills just on the cusp of the -40 degree threshold needed for an upgrade to Wind Chill Warning from a Wind Chill Advisory.
Deepening upper trof over the western US will continue to stream short wave energy over the region with a strengthening upper jet from the Southern Plains into New England providing upper divergence and broad synoptic ascent.
Impressive cold front nearly through the southeast corner of Kansas at 08Z with temps rapidly falling to the single digits in north-central Kansas. Low levels are moist enough to support light precipitation squeezing out of the frontal surface, with drizzle and freezing drizzle in eastern locations and very light snow in the west. Freezing drizzle at the NWS office has persisted for a few hours but pavements remain only wet at this writing, thanks to recent very warm conditions. 2 inch soil temps were still in the middle 30s to lower 40s across eastern Kansas at 2:30 AM and should limit ground impacts from the freezing drizzle to bridges and overpasses. The colder scenario also should bring ice crystals into the cloud quicker than guidance, further limiting freezing drizzle duration.
410 AM MST Tue Feb 22 2022 Areas of generally light snow are ongoing this morning as a wave progresses through the broad trough set up across the region. Tonight, the longwave trough will deepen, with a 500hpa low pulling south over Nevada.
447 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Currently across the Mid-South, temperatures are in the low to mid 60s. A cold front is expected to slowly progress southeastward through the Mid-South. We are expecting heavy rain to continue as the cold front exits the region. With the cold front exiting behind the cold front colder air is expected to begin filtering into the area. Wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain and possibly snow may fall in the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas.
352 AM MST Tue Feb 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows arctic front sinking south through the southern Plains now, with high pressure centered over southern SK. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the region, ahead of weakening trough that is starting to accelerate east-northeast across western WY. One more round of light snow is expected this morning as the trough quickly swings through the area.
Much colder temperatures through much of the week with sub- freezing overnight and early morning temperatures across the interior. Additionally, snow levels will lower enough for a dusting to light accumulations over the higher terrain across the Bay Area. On the other hand, the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia Range has the potential of seeing 5"-7" above 2,000 feet.
Nine hours after the high of 74F degrees, the temperature at DDC was a mere 10 degrees with a stiff north wind at 25 mph, resulting in a Wind Chill Index (WCI) of -11F for a 9-hr Apparent Temperature change of 85 degrees! Even by February High Plains standards, this was a pretty incredible event. On Wednesday, the low level winds will veer around more out of the east in response to an approaching large scale upper level trough, but this will really do nothing more than recirculate the arctic airmass already in place.
424 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Key Messages: - Freezing drizzle ongoing early this morning may lead to some slick spots developing for the morning commute, especially along and west of I-35.
Typically colder areas along the Continental Divide, Butte, Seeley Lake, Polebridge, West Glacier and Georgetown Lake will experience temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees below zero.
Broad high pressure across the Atlantic extends over Florida, maintaining dry and stable conditions.
414 AM MST Tue Feb 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows arctic front sinking south through the southern Plains now, with high pressure centered over southern SK. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the region, ahead of weakening trough that is starting to accelerate east-northeast across western WY. One more round of light snow is expected this morning as the trough quickly swings through the area.
/issued 447 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022/ Currently across the Mid-South, temperatures are in the low to mid 60s. A cold front is expected to slowly progress southeastward through the Mid-South. We are expecting heavy rain to continue as the cold front exits the region. With the cold front exiting behind the cold front colder air is expected to begin filtering into the area. Wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain and possibly snow may fall in the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas.
Deep layered ridging over the Caribbean/Gulf and Florida will maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather over all of west central and southwest Florida the remainder of today.
CAMs continue to struggle initiating on existing convection, and since showers and storms ran through the area much earlier, instability and warmer surface temps never materialized. However, ahead of the line of showers and storms, some warmer air and instability does exist, so the threat of damaging wind gusts from storms is not out of the question. A steady rainfall after the initial heavy rain continues this afternoon, and additional development will continue ahead of the cold front now through the overnight hours as the front moves through. A warm front looks to move north and potential stall just to the north in KY or over northern zones. All models place the highest rainfall amounts north of I-40, where another 2 to 4 inches on top of what falls this afternoon and overnight.
Low-level winds will become southwesterly tonight as an upper-level trough moves towards the region, resulting in increasing moist isentropic ascent over parts of the CWA. As this continues, the profile may be able to moisten to the surface resulting in freezing drizzle over parts of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains and South Plains. With clouds sticking around, temperatures will not increase much, and highs tomorrow are expected to remain below freezing for most of the CWA. Another trough, initially located across the southwestern Canadian provinces will drop into the northern Rockies while the initial core moves into the central plains states.
1117 AM MST Tue Feb 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows arctic front sinking south through the southern Plains now, with high pressure centered over southern SK. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the region, ahead of weakening trough that is starting to accelerate east-northeast across western WY. One more round of light snow is expected this morning as the trough quickly swings through the area.
Areas of generally light snow are ongoing this morning as a wave progresses through the broad trough set up across the region. Tonight, the longwave trough will deepen, with a 500hpa low pulling south over Nevada.
241 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 The Arctic air mass continues to settle into the Central Plains with the 1045mb high pressure system in eastern Montana.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a low pressure center sinking south into NW Nevada as attending snow rotated NE out of NRN Nevada into portions of SRN Idaho. A much drier NE-NW flow overspreads the area Wednesday night as the low ejects east through the 4-corners region and the next upstream trough advances through British Columbia heading for Idaho (more on that below).
Parts of northern Missouri have fallen to near freezing with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing behind the very shallow surface front. Cannot rule out some areas of freezing rain with this, although we expect that warm road temperatures, especially with the sun coming out, will limit this impact. The most extensive activity will be associated with the low level jet which is situated across our southern forecast area. This is the area of greatest threat for flooding and severe weather, however, thunderstorms are possible along the cold front itself as well. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, but they will drop quickly into the 40s and 30s behind the front, falling below freezing tonight.
Much colder temperatures through much of the week with sub- freezing overnight and early morning temperatures across the interior. The airmass over the region is rather cold leading to low snow levels with several webcams showing minor snow accumulations over the higher peaks.
257 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 It is a warm and dry afternoon across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower 80s and no echoes on the KBYX radar.
148 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 Widespread rain is expected into this evening ahead of a cold front. High pressure provides a brief dry and seasonable period Wednesday afternoon and night.
352 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 Widespread rain will transition to scattered showers this eve as low pressure completes passage.
(Tonight) Cold and breezy conditions this afternoon behind strong cold front, which has pushed south of the area this afternoon. Models remain in fairly good agreement with spreading scattered areas of light to moderate sleet, with occasional freezing rain, into eastern Oklahoma during the morning hours, moving into northwest Arkansas by late morning. Further south, the wintry precipitation will likely trend more toward freezing rain with ice accumulations likely across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Temperatures along and north of I-20 are still 40 degrees or cooler, with 50s in the Concho Valley, and mid to upper 70s along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lows along the I-10 corridor tonight will fall to around freezing. Although lighter precipitation is expected in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas, temperatures will be cold enough that even light precipitation could result in light accumulations of ice on bridges and overpasses. In addition, with overcast conditions, and continued cold air advection Wednesday, temperatures are not expected to warm above freezing north of a San Angelo to Brady line, so that any drizzle that develops will fall as freezing drizzle in these areas, which would only result in deteriorating road conditions across the region.
Meanwhile a transient area of light snow and light freezing drizzle in the wake of the polar front will move eastward with minimal impacts early this morning.
255 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Low pressure moved south of the area today, bringing freezing rain, thunderstorms, sleet, rain, freezing drizzle and snow to the area. Freezing drizzle has just about ended across the area and anywhere from a glaze of ice to 0. Through late afternoon the freezing drizzle will end from west to east.
1244 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Key Messages: - Freezing drizzle ongoing early this morning may lead to some slick spots developing for the morning commute, especially along and west of I-35.
Winds already gusting to 64 mph at Cove Mountain in the GSMNP, so have continued with the High Wind Warning. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 68 53 73 49 / 90 30 50 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 66 49 70 49 / 90 40 70 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 55 66 48 67 47 / 100 30 70 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 64 47 64 49 / 100 60 70 80 40 TN.
1043 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 Mean layer ridging dominates the Western Caribbean, Central America, and the Gulf of Mexico, with rising 700-250 mb heights sampled by the 12Z FL RAOBs. Visible satellite imagery reveals a weak inverted trough to the northeast of the Bahamas which has very little weather aligned along and east of its axis. Temperatures are on their way to the lower 80s, under mostly sunny skies.
A snow band that formed in the Lower Treasure Valley this morning prompted an update (including an advisory for that area) back around 730 AM MST. Snow continues over much of the southern portion of the Lower Treasure Valley, and there is an area of snow moving generally northwestward just south of Ontario.
High elevation valleys, like Butte and Anaconda, and areas typically sheltered from east winds, like Seeley Lake and Pole Bridge, are the most likely to cool off down to near -20F by the morning.
This low level moisture will be brought up over the cold dome of air and this combined with some lift may help to form a little mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
704 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 During the next 24 hours an upper level trough will deepen over the Great Basin while an upper ridge centered in the Gulf of Mexico sprawls across the Gulf coast states. stretching from the TX coastal plains to the lower Great Lakes eases southeastward. High pressure in the open Atlantic near Latitude 40 North slips toward Latitude 30 North while continuing to ridge across FL to much of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge dominates with a stable and warm airmass with limited moisture. High pressure stretches across the waters for the next couple of days at least with a relaxed gradient. Warmer and more moist air will begin to overspread cooler Gulf waters Wed night with the potentially for sea fog. A cold front is expected to drift in during the weekend.
As the weather system's cold front sweeps through, our rain will taper off from northwest to southeast during the night, with only some spotty light rain possibly lingering into Wednesday morning near the VA border. Arctic high pressure behind the front will slowly move across the north central CONUS Wednesday and Wednesday night as our frontal boundary stall across the Deep South. The heart of a large western CONUS upper trough will begin to eject east northeastward on Wednesday night and will support the development of another wave along the front to our south. This would cause a problem with subfreezing temperature in our northern counties as the precip arrives. The temperature profile looks supportive of freezing rain and possibly some sleet in that area, and this could end up needing to be addressed with headlines or an SPS.
645 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered TSRA wl continue moving across much of the area through 04Z before being limited to the nw as a stalling cold front drops into the area. The cold front will create a wind shift to the nw at GLH and GWO by 06Z and stall across the cntrl portions of the area by 12Z. /22/ Cold front still off to the NW, slowing considerably in parallel flow aloft.
Wednesday will be slightly cooler as an increase in moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to increased cloud cover, as well as bringing a chance of rain across northern and coastal portions of the CWA. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be a bit cooler with lows in the mid 50s north to low 60s south.
335 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 (Issued 335 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Lgt freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow will mostly come to an end by 23-00Z. Brisk nwly winds will take hold into the evening as low pressure continues to move away across lower MI. The brisk nwly winds will weaken through the day as arctic high pressure moves into the nrn Great Plains then builds across the nrn Great Lakes for Wed nt.
Lift expected to be adequate for areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain mainly Rolling Plains near KCDS early Wednesday as well. Temperatures will drop and remain well below freezing tonight through Wednesday. Low-level winds will become southwesterly tonight as an upper-level trough moves towards the region, resulting in increasing moist isentropic ascent over parts of the CWA. As this continues, the profile may be able to moisten to the surface resulting in freezing drizzle over parts of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains and South Plains. With clouds sticking around, temperatures will not increase much, and highs tomorrow are expected to remain below freezing for most of the CWA. Another trough, initially located across the southwestern Canadian provinces will drop into the northern Rockies while the initial core moves into the central plains states.
955 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 Several waves of low pressure will pass over the Ohio River Valley during the remainder of this work week. A wave of low pressure continues to head toward the Great Lakes, which keeps the Mid Atlantic firmly in the warm sector. The higher rainfall totals will remain along and west of the Blue Ridge, but the rates so far observed suggest that any flood threat tonight is practically zero. The southwest flow from Tuesday should turn more toward the west on Wednesday behind the passing boundary associated with the wave of low pressure. The mountains may only reach the lower 50s to the lower 60s as clouds may not clear as much in these locations.
547 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 The cold front will continue to drop SE across SERN AR this evening.
331 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Not alot changing in this forecast cycle, with a pipeline of anomalously strong arctic air extending through the plains and sourced from central Canada, that will keep temperatures well below freezing for the rest of the week. For starters Tonight will be the first of 4 very cold overnight, but the only with what will likely be pushing the limits of the high end of the wind chill advisory range pretty much area wide. By Wednesday evening, a substantial increase in cloud cover is expected across the area as a a rapidly approaching upper trough develops across he Great Basin region and drops into the southern Rockies.
602 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Have still been seeing visibility on webcams and airport observations drop below a mile at times along the Highway 14 corridor, and across much of southwest Minnesota, as winds are still gusting to around 35 mph early this evening.
Extended advisories for SE/SC Elko co, Ruby Mtns and White Pine county as heavier snow will continue near and around the low level convergent area and diminish from north to south on Wednesday, heaviest across eastern White Pint county.
921 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 Following a cold front, high pressure will build over the region later tonight and provide generally dry conditions through Wednesday night.
723 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022 Scattered showers will end with passage of a cold front on Wednesday morning.
Onshore flow keeping morning lows in the lower 60s, with some mid-60s possible along the immediate Treasure Coast.
The cold front has very slowly been sagging south this evening and is just now entering Stewart County. Rain will end from west to east slowly overnight as the surface cold front moves through the terminals.