Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level low that has been anchored to our west the past few days will begin to steadily move to the east and open up today. The passage of the upper level trough axis and associated secondary front may generate isolated showers across the area but measurable rainfall will be spotty at best. Upper level ridging will take place across the central U.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
The upper level low will continue to shift eastward through the short term with an upper level ridge building over the Rockies and Plains. High pressure at the surface will build into the area today then its ridge axis will move across western Kansas tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the lower 70s with lows tonight falling into the lower 40s. For Friday, dry and warm conditions expected on Friday as upper ridging moves into the Plains.
ASSOCD WITH A DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF. YET ANOTHER UPR LVL TROF WAS SITUATED TO THE W OF AR AND THIS FEATURE WL EVENTUALLY SWING THRU THE FA LATER TODAY AND TNGT.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. APPEARS THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 212200Z AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM APPROACH. BUT THE LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TOO COOL. APPEARS COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
409 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES OVERNIGHT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NOW INTO EASTERN INDIANA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
Early morning water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed closed low over western Iowa with downstream ridging over the southeast US. Regional radar mosaic shows bulk of rain showers west and north of the area as the atmosphere continues to be very dry in the low to mid levels. With clouds and southerly flow, temperatures early this morning are quite mild, holding steady in the low to mid 60s. Highs will likely stay in the low to mid 70s today with increased clouds and rain showers. 00z guidance in good agreement showing the upper low dropping southeast toward southern Indiana. This will keep the threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the forecast, with the highest chances in the morning hours. Plan on highs again in the low to mid 70s.
COLD FRONT/UPPER LOW FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE DELAYING THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ONE MORE DAY. WILL LOWER THE HIGHS TODAY BY AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGREES. BUT STILL MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 80S MANY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED UPPER DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. WILL LOOK FOR A SECONDARY BATCH OF CONVECTION TO FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL BE LAST TO TRACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS IOWA AND MOVES INTO ILLINOIS AND SRN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE CONUS THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INCLUDING NRN AND CNTRL CALIFORNIA WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE SEEING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT IS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH HIGHS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. AND IN THE LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. THE UNUSUAL WARMTH IS A RESULT OF THE SLOW RETREAT OF A LARGE RIDGE OF SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS PEAK HEATING OCCURS AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OUR WAY. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
Southwest flow continues across NorCal ahead of approaching trough over the eastern Pacific. Trough will continue to edge closer to NorCal today continuing the gradual cooling trend, with further synoptic cooling and a gradual strengthening of onshore flow expected.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL GRACE NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH ARIZONA PRODUCING WINDY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM OVER THE PACIFIC.
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS. OVERCOMING THE RIDGE AND DRY MID- AND LOW-LEVELS. AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH BACK INTO 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUT OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CORN BELT OPENS AND DISLODGES. DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE LOW ENTERS EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE. TAX THE UPPER TROUGH FROM FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLUSTERING OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE GLOBAL GEM AND GFS ALL POINT TOWARD FLAT RIDGING DOMINATING THE OHIO VALLEY THEREAFTER THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
153 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 The upper level low that has been anchored to our west the past few days will begin to steadily move to the east and open up today. The passage of the upper level trough axis and associated secondary front may generate isolated showers across the area but measurablerainfall will be spotty at best. Upper level ridging will take place across the central U.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
456 AM MDT THU APR 21 2016 QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE WESTERN US. BUT NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. WITH UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD. WITH RIDGING ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. AND WEAK WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL IMPEDE MIXING.
Warm and mostly cloud-less high pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies for one more day. Temperatures will remain warm tonight, especially at mid slope locations, ahead of a significant weather system and cold front on Friday. On Friday the upper level ridge shifts eastward while there will be a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms with breezy conditions.
608 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES OVERNIGHT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NOW INTO EASTERN INDIANA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OFF THE COAST INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE AS MANY AS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH MOST PLACES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER NEVADA.
Slighter cooler and drier air will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 50s tonight.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IA. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER ND. RIDGE TO THE WEST IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. QUIET WX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY THE WEEKEND.
415 AM MDT THU APR 21 2016 THE LONG AWAITED ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES TODAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT AROUND THE AREA TO KICK OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEP RIDGING HAS BROKEN DOWN DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NEUTRAL TO WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER MOST OF THE GULF BASIN SOUTH OF A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA.
1207 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 847 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/ IR/WV SATELLITE THIS EVENING HAS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF THE DECAYING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE FOR THE MOST PART BEEN STAGNANT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY AND SHIFT THE PRECIP AXIS EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
AND IS HELPING A COLD FRONT PUSH DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
It appears that there will be a decent bit of sunshine, so as the cold core associated with upper low approaches, a decent about of instability is likely to develop. Not sure how far south this development will make it, as instability will be harder to find farther south of the upper low. The upper low will continue to push eastward reaching southern/eastern Ohio by the end of the day Friday. This appears to be tied to the thermal trough around 850mb, which is most pronounce in the 00Z NAM.
1011 PM PDT WED APR 20 2016 Strong high pressure will continue over the Pacific Northwest into Thursday leading to generally dry and very warm weather. Expect a subtle breakdown of the ridge and moistening of low levels resulting cumulus development over the mtns Thur aftn.
BY FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AT THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERING OF CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO PUSHING AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA. MAY SEE SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SUNNY SKY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS. OVERCOMING THE RIDGE AND DRY MID- AND LOW-LEVELS. AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH BACK INTO 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUT OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CORNBELT OPENS AND DISLODGES. DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE LOW ENTERS EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE. TAX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COOLER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.
A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. FRIDAY AND WILL INDUCE STRONG U/L RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Models show what is left of the ridge quickly eroding from the west this morning, with a moistening low-mid troposphere and some potential for rain showers and a few thunderstorms in the western parts of the forecast area. There should be increasing isentropic ascent in the low-levels, particularly in the afternoon hours, and that is expected to be enough to generate some isolated to scattered convection. Otherwise, the mixture of cloud layers across the area may keep things a degree or two cooler than yesterday in most areas.
359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 Isolated showers will remain possible this morning as upper trough axis passes however given recent trends in all data the overall coverage of measurable precip will remain very low.
113 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW/VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT/THU. TAKING A MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AS THE LOW CENTER MEANDERS EAST. GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH THU MORNING. THIS FEATURE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDING A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
555 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. INCREASING S/SW LLJ AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED LOW SUPPORTING A HEALTHY SWATH OF 295-300K SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FINALLY BE OPENING UP AND EXITING THE AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. PRETTY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER TOP FRIDAY MORNING HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE EAST TO HIGH CHANCE.
1121 PM MDT WED APR 20 2016 LAST MAJOR SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO THE MIDWEST. WAVE HAS FORCED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER/WARMER WEATHER RETURNS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. END OF THIS WEEK LOOKS PRETTY WARM AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN SEASONABLY WARM TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE W/SW.
1113 PM MDT WED APR 20 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AS THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
247 AM MDT THU APR 21 2016 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THAT THE UPPER LOW THAT PLAGUED OUR AREA SINCE LATE LAST WEEK HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE MO VALLEY. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 21/00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGGING A LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
The upper level low will continue to shift eastward through the short term with an upper level ridge building over the Rockies and Plains. High pressure at the surface will build into the area today then its ridge axis will move across western Kansas tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the lower 70s with lows tonight falling into the lower 40s. Ridging will build over the Plains Friday then shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley and eastern United States for the remainder of the weekend.
250 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 Tight vort max in the center of a larger-scale closed upper low will drop out of southeast Iowa into northern Missouri through the day today. It wouldn't be surprising to see a few cold air funnels across far northern/northeast Missouri either, given the vertically-stacked nature of the upper low, very weak shear and the cold-core nature of the mid-level low. Precipitation will clear out to the east toward late afternoon and early evening as heating is lost and the mean trough axis pushes east of the area. Quiet weather moves in for the remainder of the week as broad ridging builds into the central U.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE CWA CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THAT SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SITTING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN IA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO HAVE LESS AND LESS AFFECT ON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASED MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE COMBINATION OF MAXIMUM INSOLATION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 70S.
AND THIS MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SETS IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KICKS IN.
Though there will be some clouds in the sky we should still see enough sunshine to attain high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in southern Indiana to the lower 70s in southern Kentucky and urban Louisville. Tonight low pressure will intensify and become better organized as it moves from Oklahoma to Missouri. Severe convection will be ongoing ahead of the low and its cold front but should stay to our west. Regeneration of storms to our west will then take place in the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and mid/upper level winds increase ahead of the cold front extending from the low to the Louisiana coast.
148 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure will build in Wednesday providing dry weather.
142 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Clouds gradually break today as high pressure arrives.
its timing and extent as the upper low lifts east. Temperatures today are conditional and will be determined on how thick the higher level clouds will be into the afternoon. This combined with the northern stream trough should be enough to help thicken clouds and generate the rain across mainly the eastern half of the cwa. The longer term period looks to be dominated by split flow across the CONUS with a series of upper lows cutting off over the southwest US, then meandering eastward with our area mainly north of the best moisture and forcing.
Very strong and potentially damaging winds possible Thursday Skies will be clear today with warmer weather all areas due to passing high pressure. Highs will be mostly in the 80s in the valleys and lower 90s in the lower deserts.
A strong closed low will move across the Red River Valley and slowly lift northeast into southwestern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas through today and into tonight. As the low makes its way across Oklahoma a warm front will lift north across the region placing the Ozarks in the warm sector by late this afternoon into tonight. Cape values this evening will be on the order of 1500 to 1800 J/kg with low level Cape values in the lowest 1 to 3 Km from 90 to 120 J/kg. The severe dynamic will shift east before the low lifts out of the area, which will allow for some lingering showers and isolated storms into the afternoon hours.
The dry weather will continue tonight over the area with an increase in mid and high clouds as the flow aloft turns to the SW ahead of an upper trough that will be moving inland from the Pacific. The base of that trough will drop south into the desert southwest on Thursday and the SW flow ahead of this trough will bring deep moisture into Northeast Montana. The trough in the SW US becomes a closed low Thursday Night.
610 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Clouds gradually break today as high pressure arrives.
352 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Just a few patches of light rain remaining across central/south central SD early this morning as the main area of low pressure is well south of the region.
Interesting set up with sub-freezing profile in the deep saturation near the surface, but the dendritic layer remains unsaturated aloft.
332 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 An upper low pressure trough will move across the state today and the associated cold front will push across SE Texas tonight. The actual cold front will move across the forecast area tonight.
An upper low over the southern high plains lifts up into the central plains by Wed afternoon as a ridge from the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest shifts east. with a cold front moving east across TX. Closer to home high pressure ridges across Fl from the Gulf to the Atlantic. The ridging aloft and surface will dominate with a stable and generally dry airmass. The ridging continues into Wed with a dry forecast and few to scattered clouds. A cold front approaches Thu night into Fri with an increase in southerly winds to cautionary, possibly advisory levels, and a potential round of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
before the prefrontal trough moves through later this morning. A weak cold front will move into deep south TX late tonight and this will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. late tonight through early Thurs morning before the front moves offshore the lower TX coast. Some slightly cooler air will filter into the area Thursday providing near normal temperatures for the area for a change.
The front will lift northward across the Mid-South as a warm front this morning. The combination of sunshine and winds turning around to the south will allow temperatures to shoot up into the lower to mid 80s from Interstate 40 southward. The storms will push into Eastern Arkansas between 10 PM and midnight just as the low level jet is strengthening to around 60 KTS. Shortly before noon, thunderstorms will begin generating along the approaching cold front roughly expected to be located from West Plains, Missouri to Pine Bluff, Arkansas. The cold front will push east of the Tennessee River and into Alabama by 10 PM Thursday Night ending the threat for severe weather.