Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT. IT IS BEST TO GO ANALOG FOR TOMORROW'S WEATHER PATTERN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (ALBEIT WEAKENING) WILL STILL CREATE A LIGHT WIND AND EARLY DAY CLEAR SKY IN ALLOWING MESOSCALE FORCING TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR -TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL WHERE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWATS WILL RESIDE. AS WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIED RIDGING PULLS DOWN A MIDWESTERN TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
IT IS DEFINITELY A VERY WARM AND HUMID EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE TAF PD. DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH HEAT INDICIES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. MID STATE IN WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING AND OVENIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH COLD FRONT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS AT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
1024 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY DAYBREAK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE OCCURRING IN THE DELTA REGION WHERE SOME HAVE BEEN AROUND 102-105 DEGREES. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS RIDGE OVER MT AMPLIFIES.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN MONTANA ENSURING A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST WITH STEADILY RISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
BUT WITHOUT SUPPORT ALOFT AS A 700MB RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND RIDGING WELL INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (RELUCTANT TO CALL IT A COLD FRONT) DOWN INTO OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
856 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST TRENDS ARE INTACT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BUILD A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS AROUND THE HIGH.
644 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. WITH A BASICALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000+ J/KG MLCAPE A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE DESPITE THE BROAD /BUT NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG/ AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST AREA FOR STORMS IS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE STATE ON TEXAS FRIDAY RESULTING IN A DRY AND HOT DAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 90S. THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
915 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
AIDED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC AND ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE REGION. NOT ALOT OF CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SQLN EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DEEP WLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY FAVOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS, ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LEADING TO A DRY WIND FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 DEGREES IN THE LOW DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE FLOOR OF THE GRAND CANYON.
NOT ALOT OF CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SQLN EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DEEP WLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY FAVOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS, ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE INFLUENCED BY THUNDERSTORM DISSIPATION WEST OF I-55 AS THE COLD POOL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE FORMED NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.
19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS IL FROM RUSHVILLE EAST TO DECATUR AND SOUTHEAST TO LAWRENCEVILLE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WAS DEPARTING INTO S INDIANA/KENTUCKY TAKING A WAVE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. WITH OUR WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF I-70.
THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A PRETTY SEASONABLY NORMAL DAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 7OS TO THE LOWER 80S. BUT THEN LOOK TO RAPIDLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EXIT OF THE TROUGH. SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 75- 80 DEGREE RANGE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CENTER OF UPR ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS WWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND RIDGE BUILDS NWD THROUGH WRN CANADA. BUT THE COMBINATION OF SHRTWVS DROPPING THOUGH THE RGN AND INSTABILITY FM BEING ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AND WITHIN FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF WL BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION AT TIMES. A 500MB TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AT MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST TOMORROW ALONG WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER.
A broad upper ridge this afternoon covers much of the southern U. During the next 24 hours, an upper high will become focused over southern Utah, while expanding across the southwestern states and the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, an upper trough will deepen over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. Weak cold front is expected to push south across the Texas Panhandle and roughly the northern half of Oklahoma on Friday. With compressional warming effects ahead of this front, high temperatures should be a degree or two warmer across much of our area Friday. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the lower 70s.
1048 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MADE TO THE HIGHER POPS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE 88D VADS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR CHANCES FOR TSRA TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 72 84 / 10 60 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 91 70 81 / 20 60 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 90 70 81 / 20 60 80 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 88 66 79 / 60 60 70 80.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH LYING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A DISTURBANCE SLIPS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AREA. ANY CONTRIBUTING OUTFLOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN RECOVERING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THAT BEING A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A MASSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
643 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE TAF PD. DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH HEAT INDICIES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. MID STATE IN WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING AND OVENIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH COLD FRONT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS AT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
W/ A TWIST AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO PLAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT.
805 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAINLY THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS KEEP WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE AND THERE BUT WILL KEEP WITH TRENDS FOR NOW. FOCUS IS ON THE SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LONG ADVERTISED DEEPENING OF THE GREAT LAKES TROF IS UNDERWAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY MORE. THE MAIN MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE GOING. NWP BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTING SEASONAL VALUES BUT SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH WARMER VALUES.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s and highs on Friday will range from the low 70s far north to the mid 80s far south.
834 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT SHOULD BE SINKING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT WARMER NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
IT IS BEST TO GO ANALOG FOR TOMORROW'S WEATHER PATTERN AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (ALBEIT WEAKENING) WILL STILL CREATE A LIGHT WIND AND EARLY DAY CLEAR SKY IN ALLOWING MESOSCALE FORCING TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR -TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL WHERE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWATS WILL RESIDE. AS WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIED RIDGING PULLS DOWN A MIDWESTERN TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT SPELL.
MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL TROF OVER EAST ALABAMA BY 12Z. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 75 /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE DRY AIR INTERFACE ALOFT NEAR I-20. MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
107 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE TROP UNDULATION WITH 220-250 METER HEIGHT FALL TRACK INTO CENTRAL LAKES WILL DRIVE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN TO START THIS PERIOD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK SO ONLY POP MENTION CONFINED TO FAR NORTH WITH COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER LIFT/CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO UPPER LOW.
12Z NWP guidance depicts a strong closed mid/upper level low currently over the mid-Missouri Valley to dive south and then eastward toward the southern Great Lakes by late tonight. but look to stay above freezing even across the northwestern third of the CWA due to sfc winds staying up preventing better radiational cooling. By Thursday night, ridge will be overhead with winds becoming light and variable allowing temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s for overnight lows, with upper 30s in the St.
/ISSUED 1001 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AT 7 AM AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH TAF SITES FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY (SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S) AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
Currently, we have zonal flow aloft in our area with a trough strengthening as it moves into the western U. This trough will continue moving eastward tomorrow, making it into AZ by tomorrow evening, resulting in height falls to our west, and southwest flow aloft over our area. At the surface, a cold front moved through the area earlier today, resulting in breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures across the area this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer Thursday with highs getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WERE 41 MPH AT BEAR VALLEY AND ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
1115 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 UPPER LOW IS OVER ND. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE CNDN/WRN ND BORDER DROPPING S/SE. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE NRN ROCKIES. COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN AVG. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS WRN SD. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THU WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH RIDGE AND LIGHTER WINDS BUILDING IN BEFORE DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALLOW SURFACES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THAT HAVE HOISTED FROST ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING IS MOST LIKELY. THU: RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED ON FRI AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT A LOT RIDING ON AMOUNT OF TRANSIENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WPC LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ENSEMBLES AND GIVEN STRENGTH/DEPTH OF CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS. -HOWERTON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
329 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A STRONG STORM SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, HAS BROUGHT RAINY, WINDY, AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
309 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY.
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL END THE FOG THREAT. A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLACKENING WINDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH LA AND SOUTH AR THIS AFTERNOON. STRETCHING SW FROM THE LOW A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED INTO EAST TX.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread eastward through the morning accompanied by the passing cold front. Wave will quickly move east with associated cold front sweeping through by this afternoon. Drier air will then move in tonight with low temps noticeably cooler. The dry air will be in place as upper low approaches from the west late Thursday.
The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, north-south oriented cold front translating eastward across eastern AL and the FL Panhandle. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a broad long wave trough centered over the Upper Midwest, with an embedded short wave trough rounding the base over Arkansas.
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT CLOSER.
329 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AND HELP TOUCH OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
248 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 In the wake of a cold front that moved through the region this morning, highs today will top out in the upper 60s across southeast New Mexico to the low 80s in the Rio Grande Valley, near and just below normal for this time of year, and a far cry from the warm temperatures we experienced yesterday. Temperatures will warm above normal once again on Thursday with southerly to southeasterly return flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough, with increasing cloudcover and precipitation chances ramping up across the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday afternoon. Rich Gulf moisture will be routed into the region ahead of the aforementioned trough, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.
134 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TODAY.
THE DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF WA.
More sun today should yield slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. A secondary cold front then passes through the area this afternoon.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS IN OUR CWA ARE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ND. A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
Overnight lows will range from around freezing from the I-70 corridor to Scott City and Dighton to the mid and upper 30s south.
UNTIL THEN WILL SEE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVE FROM THE 4-CORNERS THIS AFTN TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER DESPITE THE FRONT WITH PROGGED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUGGESTING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE IN FULL THROTTLE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SONORA THURSDAY EVENING.
A weak short wave will move through the area this evening and bring a cold front through the area overnight. Cold air will continue to filter into the region through Thursday as high pressure moves towards the area.
A deep and closed upper low near the triple point of SD/ND/MN will quickly pivot east while opening up during this period. The broad and deep troughing that extends well south of the CWA will allow for very chilly conditions. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 30s most areas. Crisp but pleasant weather on tap for Thursday with upper level ridging quickly translating northeast and heralding warm air advection aloft.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THRU 06Z BEFORE GRADIENT SLIPS SOUTH. NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING BACK SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SRN MN AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS AND EXPECT TO SEE PRECIP SPREAD BACK SOUTH THRU THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVENING ENDING LATER TONIGHT. AS FOR PTYPE WITH WARMER AIT AT 925 MB MOVING IN AS WELL AS SFC WARMING DO EXPECT THE WET SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT IN AREAS THAT GOT THE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING (BEMIDJI-BAGLEY-ITASCA-PARK RAPIDS).
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH BEFORE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY INTO TONIGHT.
AND THURSDAY OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT- TERM AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
248 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 Secondary cold front about to enter the northwest part of the CWA early this afternoon. Deepening upper low is dropping southeast and was centered over southwest Minnesota early this afternoon. Punch of dry air across the northern CWA will keep skies mostly clear overnight, but the large stratocumulus shield to our north will be sinking southward in the wake of the low passage, and clouds will be increasing toward sunrise north of Peoria. A deep upper low over the eastern Dakotas will progress over lower Michigan by 12z/7am Thursday. Cold air diving south behind the low will create a chilly/blustery day across central Illinois.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS AND CONSENSUS BLENDS WERE INDICATING A WARMER FORECAST. DECIDED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. SO LEFT THE HIGHLIGHT AS IS DESPITE THE SMALL TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM IA AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME LINGERING DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO CANADA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHUT OFF BY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS.
/ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ Strong gusty north to northwest winds of 15 to 25kts will be the main weather impact through 17Z/1PM along and immediately behind a fast moving cold front. /ISSUED 454 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move rapidly into West Central Texas this morning, shifting the winds to the north at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph especially across the Big Country. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the cold front with highs ranging from the lower 70s north of I20 to the mid to upper 70s south.
VFR conditions can be expected thru the period behind the cold front that passed thru earlier today. /issued 316 pm CDT/ Cold front has shifted southeast of the area this afternoon with breezy northwest winds behind front. Secondary surge of cooler air will move into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight with front pushing south to near the red river Thursday afternoon.
BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOME POCKETS BELOW FREEZING IN EL PASO COUNTY AND ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR. AND THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD AFTER ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
212 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.