Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of low pressure along the West Coast will move across The Great Basin Monday and Tuesday. This will bring gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures Monday. A dynamic, low pressure system is currently making its way onshore over northern California and into the Sierra. Higher terrain locations will continue being breezy tonight before winds begin to strengthen Monday morning region-wide as the core of the low's upper-level jet energy positions itself over the UT/AZ border. A weak trough moving over Arizona today brought high clouds and southwest breezes. A much stronger area of low pressure along The West Coast today will move eastward and across The Great Basin Monday and Tuesday. Cooler air will also accompany the passage of this low, especially for Monday night and Tuesday morning. This low is moisture starved so measurable precipitation is not expected.
Dry weather continues through the period as weak ridging aloft builds into the region through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure continues progressing east across the TN River Valley with surface ridging building into our area through the period. As this high pressure moves east, northerly winds begin to shift to more easterly by Monday. Highs temps also exhibit a gradual warmer trend with Monday's highs ranging in the low to mid 70s across the area.
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Three am temperatures are running near to slightly warmer than they were 24 hours under virtually the same conditions.
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The large-scale pattern over the CONUS is defined by a strong mid- to upper-level ridge covering most of the Plains states. As this ridge continues to shift east tonight, skies will continue to clear. The ridge will be perfectly timed to move across the U. Continued warm and dry conditions are expected Tuesday as mid-upper level ridging hovers over the forecast area. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 60s, with some areas prone to southwesterly downslope warming potentially reaching the lower 70s. An upper level low progged to eject out of the Rockies will support surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies during the day on Tuesday.
145 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Isolated showers will continue north of Pittsburgh into Monday morning with departing upper trough. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure.
317 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Upper level ridging and increasing southerly surface winds ahead of an approaching frontal boundary will lead to another fairly warm day across the region today. The upper ridge will get pushed to the east tonight as the surface front reaches the western CWA. Will see a decent pressure gradient develop on the north side of this low (post frontal) during the day Tuesday, making for another breezy day. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s, with highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s across north central South Dakota, to the lower 60s across parts of far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
/Today through Tuesday/ For the start of this workweek, dry conditions continue to be the main story, with an upper level ridge in place over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The aforementioned upper level ridge will remain in control through midweek as it gradually drifts eastward across the Great Lakes region.
High pressure continues to reside over the area keeping skies cloud-free today. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday with our afternoon highs in the lower 70s for most and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s to around 50 in the city. Tuesday will see similar conditions with a degree or two warmer temperatures, slightly stronger winds with gusts to around 15 MPH, and partly cloudy skies by the afternoon.
(Today and tonight) High level cloud cover will increase today downstream of upper low that has progressed onshore in northern California. This is expected to result in high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but it will still be a fine day for the middle of October.
305 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The upper ridge is upon us this morning.
Lake enhanced showers have diminished slowly and are now confined to mainly the NW Mtns of PA, as a weak thermal ridge aloft is dropping SE across the region. By daybreak Monday, lows should range from the upper 30s over portions of the northern tier and the Alleghenies, to the mid 40s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. However, one last gasp of energy dropping SE around the western edge of the large scale upper trough will leading to temps slipping several deg C cooler around the 850 mb level, but warming a few degrees in the 700-500 mb layer.
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the region early this morning and will be quickly replaced by increasing mid and upper level southwesterly flow downstream from a compact upper level low that will move from northern California at press time to western Utah at 00Z and then lifting northeastward toward southern Wyoming overnight tonight. A subtle short wave trough over northern Sonora is progged to eject quickly eastward today and may produce some high- based showers later today as it interacts with mid level moisture over the western half of the forecast area.
926 PM PDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Increasing onshore flow spreading cooler and more humid air inland this evening. Fair and warmer weather follows for the remainder of the work week, with some coastal low clouds and fog during the nights and mornings. The likelihood of measurable rain has increased for late tonight through midday Monday, due to the quickly deepening marine layer, increasing onshore flow, and the passage to the north of an upper level trough weather disturbance. From previous discussion (129 PM PDT): Westerly winds will strengthen and become gusty through the mountain passes and into the deserts through Monday as a low pressure center moves inland across northern CA. It will be even cooler on Monday when highs will be some 10-15F below seasonal averages.
319 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure now centered just south of the forecast area will shift only very slowly eastward towards the southeastern states through Tuesday night. A weak mid level short wave and associated cold front will then approach and move through the region Wed/Wed night time frame.
By daybreak Monday, lows should range from the upper 30s over portions of the northern tier and the Alleghenies, to the mid 40s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. However, one last gasp of energy dropping SE around the western edge of the large scale upper trough will leading to temps slipping several deg C cooler around the 850 mb level, but warming a few degrees in the 700-500 mb layer.
233 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Upper ridge axis has shifted to our east, leaving the northern plains in southwest flow, as the trough moves ashore. Meanwhile, the west coast trough will develop into a closed low as it swings eastward and approaches our area. Tonight, the cold front will begin crossing the CWA. The 00Z deterministic models have come into better agreement on the 700 mb low track, with the low over the NE panhandle Tues morning, and moving along the NE/SD border through Wed. Northerly winds will be gusty behind the cold front Tuesday, especially just east of the Black Hills, but not terribly strong. Overall, the forecast through the end of the week looks dry, becoming gradually warmer.
256 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Fantastic fall weather continues with sunny skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the low 70s today.
A low pressure system is currently moving through northern California and is already showing an even more southerly track than previous projections. Since the track of the low is expected to be well south of the region there has been a drying trend to the forecast, so most of central Idaho and western Montana is forecast to remain dry.
Another cool night is on tap as the high pressure system remains nearby. The high slides a little to the east on Tuesday and we will see a little more moisture begin to work into the southern portions of the area.
400 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will dominate through midweek as it moves across the southeast states.
1221 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will continue to build in from the west through the middle of the week, then slide offshore late in the week. Dew points this afternoon were generally in the lower 40s and expect tonight's lows to be only a couple degrees within that mark. Pleasant weather continues with winds backing more westerly but still gusty at times as high pressure slides to the south and upper ridge continues to advance eastward.
Marginally warmer day Monday as the region remains in between the departing weekend thermal trough and approaching thermal ridging over the Midwest. Upper level ridge axis moves across lower MI by Tuesday bringing with it a warmer airmass as 850mb climb to 10+ C allowing high temps to hit 70F.
106 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure was centered over western TN at 05Z. The high will shift into eastern KY/TN by late this afternoon. High temperatures should reach the lower 70s for most valley locations, with upper 60s atop the higher plateaus and mountains.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under the influence of 500 mb high pressure during the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure shifting farther east will allow for a gradual increase in moisture, but not enough to produce any chance of precipitation.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front dry and cool weather will prevail. Coolest areas will be in the lower to mid 40s. As a ridge makes its way over the region we can expect subsidence to continue to dominate take as drier air remains in place, although, some easterly flow may allow the air mass to begin moderating.
137 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward.
246 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 06Z data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley with a developing low in southeast Colorado. Quiet and dry conditions will continue with warmer temperatures. The above normal temperatures early in the week will give way to much cooler weather late week into the weekend.
310 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
305 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
Discussion: The synoptic pattern today is highlight by omega shaped flow with a ridge axis over the Plains while two H5 cyclones prevail on the west/east coasts. At the surface, high pressure will be centered nearly overhead thanks to confluent flow aloft. This high pressure favors deep dry profiles and therefore clear skies this morning favoring ample radiational cooling and possible frost in the sheltered areas of northeast TN and southwest VA/NC where a frost advisory remains in effect. Tonight conditions will be much the same, however with guidance favoring slightly warmer temperatures for lows, thus think frost potential will remain isolated at best.
1120 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 A forecast update is in place for slightly cooler low temperatures across swrn Nebraska tonight.
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will build slowly east into the area through mid week. Another sunny day across Central NC today as high pressure over the TN Valley today will influence dry and cool advection across the region today. The upper level trough associated with the low in eastern Canada will continue to move offshore today. A ridge building in the Central Plains will continue to shift east continuing a NW flow across the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures today will be near normal with highs in the low 70s NW and mid 70s SE. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 40s across the region. The upper level ridge now shifting over the eastern half of CONUS, brings weak upper level gradients, thus weak winds and another night of exceptional radiational cooling.
The increased gradient and increasing H850 winds will increase mixing today, especially over the southern Red River Valley where gusts into the low 30 mph range are possible. A cold front then moves across the area late tonight into tomorrow, with winds shifting to the north overnight for eastern North Dakota and Tuesday morning in northwest Minnesota.
Today Through Tuesday Night THE WEATHER WILL BE FABULOUS Temps: seasonable-ish Clouds: some but not too many Rain: no (thanks, surface/upper ridging!).
1157 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
High pressure was centered over western TN at 05Z. The high will shift into eastern KY/TN by late this afternoon. High temperatures should reach the lower 70s for most valley locations, with upper 60s atop the higher plateaus and mountains.
310 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Temperatures will still warm into the 60s before a cold front swings across the area this afternoon. Cold front will be dry across the lower elevations, but a dynamic upper low over southern Wyoming will bring some moisture to the area to produce snow over the mountains, and a rain/snow mix ove the foothills. 25" of rain as the upper low swings east over the plains. No arctic surge is associated with the cold front, so cooling will be as a result of the energy brought in with the upper low, so while Tuesday will be cooler, highs will still reach the 40s across the area. Only impacts of concern would be for roads in the Bighorns, but confidence is low for any lasting deterioration of road conditions due to road temperatures mostly staying above freezing.
605 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 (Today and tonight) High level cloud cover will increase today downstream of upper low that has progressed onshore in northern California. This is expected to result in high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but it will still be a fine day for the middle of October.
Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was moving onshore across northern CA and OR. A downstream upper level ridge was located across the central Plains. Today through Tonight, The upper level trough across the northern CA and OR will amplify into an upper low and move east into the central Rockies late Monday night. The upper level low will lift east northeast across NE. The model solutions are about 6 hours slower moving the upper trough out across the plains, so shower and thunderstorm chances will remain across western KS Tuesday afternoon. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the Pacific cold front across west central KS during the evening hours due to surface convergence and DCVA ahead of the upper trough.
Slightly warmer high temperatures can be expected today with the upper level ridge right over MO. Lows tonight will not be as cold with the lowest readings across southeast MO and southwest IL where the wind will be the lightest and the surface dew points will likely be the lowest.
510 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The next trough is beginning to move ashore along northern California this morning, starting to push the central US ridge farther east. SW flow will continue to bring warmer weather to SE WY/western NE will continue the above normal temperatures for the region, reaching 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The trough then barrels across the Intermountain West, generally tracking along the WY/CO border during the day Tuesday. Right now, the temperatures below freezing may not fully arrive until after sunrise Tuesday. This would limit the best accumulating snow to the higher elevations of the northern Laramie Range. Gradients in the region will be much looser than the previous winter storm, but some gusty northwest winds are still a concern as the cold air comes rushing in behind the trough.
645 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The upper ridge is upon us this morning.
557 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Ridge of high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes from the west this morning with mid-level subsidence promoting continued SKC conditions through the day. Light wind organizes out of the northwest this afternoon before shifting to the southwest tonight as the ridge axis passes overhead. Early week period defined by the steady increase in the geopotential height field, responding to a combination of exiting mean troughing and inbound higher amplitude ridging currently fixated across the Mississippi River Valley. Remnant confluent mid level northwest flow as this process unfolds sustains a high degree of stability atop encroaching surface ridging today. Dry and stable conditions still prevail Tuesday, as upper ridging anchors overhead and a backing/southwesterly low level gradient lacks in meaningful moisture advection at this stage.
444 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Upper ridge axis has shifted to our east, leaving the northern plains in southwest flow, as the trough moves ashore. Meanwhile, the west coast trough will develop into a closed low as it swings eastward and approaches our area. Tonight, the cold front will begin crossing the CWA. The 00Z deterministic models have come into better agreement on the 700 mb low track, with the low over the NE panhandle Tues morning, and moving along the NE/SD border through Wed. Northerly winds will be gusty behind the cold front Tuesday, especially just east of the Black Hills, but not terribly strong. Overall, the forecast through the end of the week looks dry, becoming gradually warmer.
High pressure centered over the Southeastern CONUS will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period. As the high moves east, winds will gradually transition from the northeast this morning to east-southeast this afternoon and evening. Slightly warmer conditions are expected today with highs mainly from the upper 70s to low 80s.
Upper level ridging and increasing southerly surface winds ahead of an approaching frontal boundary will lead to another fairly warm day across the region today. The upper ridge will get pushed to the east tonight as the surface front reaches the western CWA. Will see a decent pressure gradient develop on the north side of this low (post frontal) during the day Tuesday, making for another breezy day. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s, with highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s across north central South Dakota, to the lower 60s across parts of far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
/issued 400 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ High pressure will dominate through midweek as it moves across the southeast states.
507 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 A cold front currently over southern Florida will become diffused and stationary near the Florida Keys. Behind the front is a strong continental high pressure which is currently building over the southern United States. Winds across the region will slowly increase as the pressure graident tightens and the high pressure builds over Florida. In addition, the cold front will advect a cooler air mass over the Keys and local waters, moderating the local water temperatures, and lowering dewpoints and daily temperatures.
and Tuesday The unseasonably mild Fall weather will continue today and Tuesday, as an upper ridge of high pressure drifts slowly across Wisconsin.
After a very refreshing morning with much lower humidity levels and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s north, and 50s and 60s central and south temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 80s during the afternoon under sunny skies with the lower humidity levels making for some very delightful outdoor conditions.
840 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High pressure will build across the region this week, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
912 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward.
As the high moves east, winds will gradually transition from the northeast this morning to east-southeast this afternoon and evening. Slightly warmer conditions are expected today with highs mainly from the upper 70s to low 80s.
/Issued 422 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ The main story of the short term forecast will be a broad upper level ridge moving slowly eastward from the Great Plains towards the Southeastern CONUS. As the period begins, the forecast area is under northwesterly upper level flow on the leading edge of the ridge and high pressure at the surface. With low atmospheric moisture content, a large diurnal temperature spread can be expected, with morning lows in the low 40s, and even mid to upper 30s in portions of far northeast Georgia, and afternoon highs mainly in the 70s. Temperatures will gradually climb under the influence of the ridge, increasing by a couple of degrees on Tuesday. King Stable conditions persist at the beginning of the period thanks to a dome of high pressure continuing to build.
Temps already in the low 50s for much of the region and on track for low to mid 70s. The increased gradient and increasing H850 winds will increase mixing today, especially over the southern Red River Valley where gusts into the low 30 mph range are possible. A cold front then moves across the area late tonight into tomorrow, with winds shifting to the north overnight for eastern North Dakota and Tuesday morning in northwest Minnesota.
For tonight, the small but potent upper level closed low moving across the Great Basin today will track to the Tri-State (WY/UT/CO) border by late tonight. Most of the models seem to agree that a fairly organized band of precipitation along the mid level cold front will arrive in our mountains after midnight. A low pressure system will continue to drive through southeast Wyoming Tuesday, bringing light snow showers to our mountain zones and strong sustained northwesterly flow across the region.
Not much change in the weather is expected Monday other than a slight increase in southerly winds in response to a developing low pressure system across the western states. Lows tonight will drop down into the 40s in most locations except for a few urban areas that will stay in the lower 50s.
A cold front will pass over the area this morning and bring light rain and mountain snow to much of the area.
Radar shows most of the precipitation associated with the front has moved southeast of the forecast area while scattered to numerous showers continue over the northeastern third of the forecast area beneath the mid/upper low as it closes off.
06Z data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley with a developing low in southeast Colorado. Quiet and dry conditions will continue with warmer temperatures. The above normal temperatures early in the week will give way to much cooler weather late week into the weekend.
/issued 339 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the region early this morning and will be quickly replaced by increasing mid and upper level southwesterly flow downstream from a compact upper level low that will move from northern California at press time to western Utah at 00Z and then lifting northeastward toward southern Wyoming overnight tonight. A subtle short wave trough over northern Sonora is progged to eject quickly eastward today and may produce some high- based showers later today as it interacts with mid level moisture over the western half of the forecast area.
VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours due to high pressure at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere. /issued 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under the influence of 500 mb high pressure during the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure shifting farther east will allow for a gradual increase in moisture, but not enough to produce any chance of precipitation.
425 AM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021 A low pressure system moving inland through California will bring cooling today with coastal low clouds extending inland onto the coastal mountain slopes.