Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Morning lows today in the lower to mid 30s seems to bring at least areas of frost to the advisory counties, but no reports yet of killing freeze. 10 along that axis, but with others showing much lighter forcing, I am not sold on the higher amounts. Still, with clouds, and light rain falling, temperatures should be confined to the mid to upper 50s, and if rain builds in earlier in the day than forecast, we might be as cold as the lower 50s.
214 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 An upper level trough will persist over the Great Lakes through this weekend, providing below normal temperatures.
1233 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A low pressure trough will usher showers into NY and PA today. High pressure will bring dry weather this weekend, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over northern NY. A trough of low pressure will swing across NY and PA today with weak surface reflections sliding along the trough. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s. High pressure will slide down from Canada overnight as lake effect rain showers continue. Low level moisture trapped below the high could cause stratocumulus clouds to linger. High pressure will be centered over the Northeast U.
Short wave trough to our northwest moving southeast towards our region this morning. The main issue for rainfall at the surface will be overcoming the dry layer in the lower levels. Highs in the 50s to the lower 60s still look good under mostly cloudy skies. This mornings concern continues to be frost potential and near freezing temps. At that point, there is some evidence that the western CONUS upper level ridge will be trying to flatten/move east toward the central CONUS.
128 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Early this morning, an upper longwave TROF prevailed over eastern North America with a RIDGE over western North America. The axis of the TROF was just east of our region. A pair of upper level disturbances of note were located over western Canada, riding over the RIDGE lodged there. At the surface, a 1026mb ridge of high pressure dominated the Plains. The positions of the upper longwave TROF and RIDGE will change very little through Saturday. There is good operational model consensus on the highest PoPs for central and northeast MO during Saturday morning and is further supported by the HREF, with a lessening in coverage then occurring during Saturday afternoon.
On the synoptic scale, anomalous ridging is present across the west with a trough in the east resulting in northwesterly flow across the Plains. This will send a cold front into the area tomorrow, and another round of cirrus and mid clouds.
Upper pattern showing a strong upper ridge extending north into the Pacific Northwest with a deep trough over the Great Lakes and down into the Dixie states. Over the weekend, the ridge is expected to flatten with energy moving in from the west.
1244 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through the first week of October, bringing warm afternoons, dry conditions, light winds, and chilly mornings.
224 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A weak trough will swing through today. High pressure will take over for Saturday.
Very quiet weather will continue through the short term as high pressure continues over the area. Temperatures will warm a few degrees over today's temperatures, reaching into the low 90s across the Brush Country. Light to moderate winds will shift east, then southeast tonight through Saturday night as the high pressure drifts to the east.
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure is building in with just enough low level moisture off of the Great Lakes to keep some isolated showers downwind of them tonight into tomorrow.
1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Cool high pressure in control this morning with overnight lows bottoming out from the upper 20s to mid 30s. By tonight abundant cloud cover will be in place as a broad upper level trough begins to shift eastward. On Saturday as this broad trough shifts east marginal forcing and weak instability mostly east of Interstate 29 should allow for a few showers again, but not much rainfall expected.
220 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Deep long wave trough remains in place over the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping us in chilly northwest flow. High pressure remains pretty much in control into tonight before clouds increase/thicken toward morning ahead of next northwest flow system. Trough in northwest flow aloft then rotates southeast across the area Saturday into Saturday evening for more cloud cover and scattered showers.
1113 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 08z surface analysis had high moving into to the Midwest with a warm front across eastern MT into eastern WY. Gusty northerly winds expected behind the cold front per 2-3mb/3hr pressure rises combined with 25-30kt boundary layer flow. Saturday, cooler day expected with readings near guidance.
148 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A low pressure trough will usher showers into NY and PA today. High pressure will bring dry weather this weekend, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over northern NY. A trough of low pressure will swing across NY and PA today with weak surface reflections sliding along the trough. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s. High pressure will slide down from Canada overnight as lake effect rain showers continue. Low level moisture trapped below the high could cause stratocumulus clouds to linger. High pressure will be centered over the Northeast U.
237 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A weak trough will swing through today. High pressure will take over for Saturday.
Montana will be in a NW flow aloft today and Saturday with a ridge to the west and an upper trough to the east. The pattern will remain highly amplified with the ridge over the western portions of most of the continent, and the trough over the eastern portions, anchored in the Hudson Bay. Look for temperatures that will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure moves into the region. Look for light winds on Saturday and mostly sunny skies along with somewhat cooler temperatures.
126 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A few isolated and light showers are possible this afternoon before dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure. With near freezing and saturated conditions closer to ground level frost development will be possible overnight. Therefore a frost advisory was issued for all counties with the exception of Forest county where freezing conditions have already been observed and the growing season has ended.
41 The cold front has pushed south of the forecast area, and cool and dry northerly air continues to move into north and central Georgia behind the front.
729 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
759 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will build eastward tonight and take over for Saturday.
The upper level ridge that has been over the area for several days now will be moving east tomorrow.
524 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Amplified ridging over the west coast and a broad trough over the eastern CONUS leave the CWA sandwiched under northwesterly flow. Cloud cover will decrease from north to south this evening, as mid-to- high level moisture tied to the exiting trough axis shifts eastward. Temperatures on Saturday will run a degree or two cooler than observed today, in the wake of today's passing system. Relatively clear skies round out the short term forecast period as high pressure builds into the Great Basin and ridging moves overhead. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will maintain a consistent weather pattern for majority of the forecast period.
This evening, dry H5 troughing is analyzed atop the region, with surface ridging centered toward the north.
941 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
Late tomorrow morning a cold front will move south through the forecast area leading to breezy northerly winds through tomorrow evening. /issued 143 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020/ Northwest upper flow to persist over the forecast area as the seemingly semi-permanent western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough remain in place. A pair of short wave troughs moving southeastward over the Missouri Valley, one late tonight and the second Saturday afternoon, will bring a cold front into the forecast area toward sunrise Saturday. The front may stall across the forecast area for a bit before the second short wave trough brings another round of southward impetus to the cold front. Low temperatures should be milder than this morning's with the south to southwest surface winds ahead of the cold front.
Mid and high-level clouds spreading eastward in advance of the approaching trough will begin to increase across the region at some point Saturday evening, but with a few hours of radiational cooling anticipated early in the evening, temperatures should still manage to fall into the u40s-l50s. A few patches of light rain or sprinkles will also be possible in the strengthening warm/moist advection regime ahead of the system's cold front, as synoptic scale lift increases and precipitable water values rise into the 0.
459 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Upper ridging is persisting across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the Great Plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Saturday, then warmer air will advect in, bringing above average temperatures through the first half of the week.
Tonight and Saturday: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Normal lows run in the low to mid 50s. Highs Saturday will range from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s southwest. Normal highs run in the lower 80s.
809 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A pressure ridge centered to the north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend.
1033 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A pressure ridge centered to the north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend.
643 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A pressure ridge centered to the north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend.
However, toward the I-4 corridor, Orlando Metro area and northwest, rain chances remain out of the forecast as drier air in the lower/mid levels holds on into tonight. Mainly N/NE and perhaps E winds across the local waters overnight with light N/NW winds inland from the coast, perhaps creating some weak troughing and convergence along the immediate coast.
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 The cold front has pushed south of the forecast area, and cool and dry northerly air continues to move into north and central Georgia behind the front.
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Deep long wave trough remains in place over the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping us in chilly northwest flow. High pressure remains pretty much in control into tonight before clouds increase/thicken toward morning ahead of next northwest flow system. Trough in northwest flow aloft then rotates southeast across the area Saturday into Saturday evening for more cloud cover and scattered showers.
Expect it to continue its inland push into the remainder of the lowlands by Saturday morning. The upper level ridge that has been over the area for several days now will be moving east tomorrow.
556 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Overview: NW-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area through the weekend -- along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by deep ridging aloft over the western CONUS and deep troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. With the above in mind, expect a brief cooling trend on Saturday (highs ~10F cooler than today, in the 60s).
We remain on the western periphery of stronger surface ridging over the Mississippi River valley, although this ridge will continue to move east overnight.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the Western States will lead to near-record high temperatures through Saturday.
835 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will continue to bring dry and cool weather through the weekend. Low pressure off the Atlantic coastline could provide some rain near the coast late in the weekend.
904 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Canadian high pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Current temperatures are already in the mid to upper 40s across much of West Tennessee while the rest of the CWA is in the lower to mid 50s.
A couple short wave troughs in northwest flow are/will be affecting the cwa through Saturday. The first short wave trough and jet streak were bringing showers mainly to central sd this afternoon with a few sprinkles/light showers elsewhere. Otherwise, the next short wave trough in Canada will travel farther east tonight and Saturday affecting mainly eastern sd.
704 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 After a cold morning where most folks saw lows 10 to 20 degrees below normal (falling to the mid 20s for some!), temperatures this afternoon have warmed into 50s to near 60, which is 5-15 degrees cooler than average.
755 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will bring dry and cool weather through the weekend. Low pressure off the Atlantic coastline could provide some rain near the coast late in the weekend. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s west and north, 45-50 SE. The high pressure will move over the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Saturday.
638 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A couple short wave troughs in northwest flow are/will be affecting the cwa through Saturday. The first short wave trough and jet streak were bringing showers mainly to central sd this afternoon with a few sprinkles/light showers elsewhere. Otherwise, the next short wave trough in Canada will travel farther east tonight and Saturday affecting mainly eastern sd.
A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring slight chances for rain to the northern terminals early Saturday, with more widespread rain expected Saturday afternoon and evening.
Analysis of model and satellite data finds the Keys wedged in a in a band of tropical moisture south of a cold front draped across central Florida. This should slowly push westward as TS Gamma moves over the Yucatan and ridging builds in from the western Atlantic.
741 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure.
Around this time the winds will turn to the north behind a passing cold front and pick up to 15 kts. A cold front will move south through the Panhandles just after sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 70s across the Panhandles. A weak strip of PVA in the wake of the cold front across central Oklahoma on the latest 02/12 model and numerical data shows a slight chance of showers to our east. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 40s to mid 40s, a bit cooler tomorrow night behind the cold front.
Gilstad Light rain showers over the far east and gusty northerly winds over the area will decrease into the evening, in the wake of the cold front. Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday night as high pressure builds back over the region. A light easterly flow at the surface on Saturday will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. STP Overall theme during this period is warm and dry, due to a continued dominance of an upper ridge over the western US. There will be some variation in temperatures this week as cold fronts move through every 48 hours.
552 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure.
Looking at observed temperatures from this morning, plus the lighter winds and clearer skies (less smoke) tonight, most locations should drop at least a degree or two cooler than last night. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Normal lows run in the low to mid 50s. Highs Saturday will range from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s southwest. Normal highs run in the lower 80s.
Otherwise, a backdoor cold front will bring a wind shift with gustiness to eastern NM Saturday. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend, despite some gusty east canyon winds Saturday following a backdoor cold front.
755 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Broad Canadian high pressure will continue to spread over the region tonight and tomorrow, bringing cool and dry autumn weather.
A steep upper ridge remains in place over the West Coast, creating well above normal temperatures and very dry conditions. Temperatures early this afternoon are around 2 to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
Amplified pattern remains in place with a mean trough over the eastern CONUS. A minor short wave vort max or two will round the base of the mean trough at times during the short term but will have little if any effect on weather through the period. At the surface, Midwest high pressure will slide slowly eastward tonight, reaching the Central Appalachians by Saturday morning. The center of the high will be just to our northeast, roughly over WV. That would put tomorrow morning's lows in a range similar to this morning's, perhaps slightly warmer. Do not see any threat of frost with relatively high surface dew points around 40 (wet bulb temperatures well above freezing). But cooler eastern valleys should have time to decouple before the more expansive cloud cover arrives.
The lower level moisture/stratus mixes out to FEW250 on Saturday. The upper flow over Texas is from the northwest with a trough axis to the east. Temperatures, however, are down after another weak cold front moved through the area. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast to south and dewpoints will continue to increase during the short term period. High pressure will move over the region and dry weather will continue.
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will build eastward tonight and take over for Saturday.
704 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure is building in with just enough low level moisture off of the Great Lakes to keep some isolated showers downwind of them tonight into tomorrow.
616 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Chilly high pressure will stay in the region for one more night tonight, leading to another unseasonably cool start to the day Saturday. The high will shift off a bit to the east during the day Saturday, allowing temperatures to nudge up a bit into the upper half of the 60s.
Currently, high pressure is centered generally north and west of the area with scattered high clouds lingering. With eastward progression of high pressure expected, greatest subsidence in our area still looks to be in the frost advisory areas of the TN mountains and portions of southwest Virginia. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 72 50 74 51 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 69 48 68 50 / 0 0 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 43 69 48 68 50 / 0 0 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 67 45 67 48 / 0 0 10 20 30 TN.
Currently, high pressure is centered generally north and west of the area with scattered high clouds lingering. With eastward progression of high pressure expected, greatest subsidence in our area still looks to be in the frost advisory areas of the TN mountains and portions of southwest Virginia. With high pressure across the region, all sites will experience VFR conditions after 14z as fog dissipates this morning. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 50 74 51 73 / 0 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 48 68 50 68 / 0 0 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 48 68 50 69 / 0 0 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 45 67 48 65 / 0 0 20 30 10 TN.
253 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge along the west coast with northwest flow through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, with a clipper diving through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, cold front is working through western SD. Cooler with breezy northwest winds expected today with highs mainly in the 60s. Warmer temps then expected Sunday as short wave ridge crosses the Northern Plains and southerly winds become breezy.
1253 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Dry today under high pressure. Rain chances will return Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Building high pressure will allow for a dry day with decreasing cloud cover. Increasing deep layer moisture and ascent ahead of the trough/low should result in the development of scattered showers Sunday and Sunday night.
As skies clear tonight and weak high pressure skirts the area, temperatures will likely drop into the upper 30s Sunday morning with some potential for both frost and fog formation. Upper heights will begin to build over the area on Sunday while weak southerly return flow sets up in the low levels.
An approaching low pressure system will bring chances for showers to the area this evening through Sunday.
412 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A weak trough of low pressure will move through the region this afternoon with an isolated shower possible. High pressure will move overhead Sunday.
A great start for the first weekend in October with low humidity and cooler than normal temperatures. A gradual warm-up will take place this weekend as the air mass modifies ahead of a fast moving short wave trof. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 70s and middle 70s to upper 70s on Sunday. A dry cold front will push into north Alabama Sunday afternoon ahead of the approaching short wave trof.
The persistent upper level trough that has been over the eastern CONUS for the past couple of days will continue through tonight before beginning to progress eastward on Sunday. At the surface, expecting high pressure over the area to begin to break down somewhat as a cold front starts to progress over the ARKLATEX region towards the Deep South late tonight into early Sunday morning. Lows tonight begin to trend warmer as temperatures only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and into the mid to upper 50s closer to the coast.
Below normal temperatures remain in place through the depth of the atmosphere today and tonight supported by a broad long wave trough in the upper levels and NW flow toward the surface. This is ahead of high pressure that settles overhead and sets up tonight as the coldest of the weekend depending on cloud conditions. Thickening high clouds toward sunrise proceed during the morning as the next low pressure system organizes from the mid Mississippi valley into the upper Midwest.
Cold front will push into southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon with a narrow axis of marginal surface based instability developing as dewpoints climb into the upper 50s.
A backdoor cold front will bring a wind shift with gusty winds behind it across eastern NM today. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend, despite some gusty east canyon winds Saturday following a backdoor cold front. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched over the western US. A back door cold front will move southwestward through the state late tonight through Saturday.
This will keep temperatures slightly warmer than the past could nights with min temperatures near seasonal normals.
Cold front will push south overnight through Saturday morning, with north-northeasterly gusts expected at DHT and AMA during the daytime hours. A cold front will move south through the Panhandles just after sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 70s across the Panhandles. A weak strip of PVA in the wake of the cold front across central Oklahoma on the latest 02/12 model and numerical data shows a slight chance of showers to our east. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 40s to mid 40s, a bit cooler tomorrow night behind the cold front.
In all, however, dry conditions and much warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend.
1125 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A cold front is moving south through the forecast are. Overview: NW-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area through the weekend -- along the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by deep ridging aloft over the western CONUS and deep troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. With the above in mind, expect a brief cooling trend on Saturday (highs ~10F cooler than today, in the 60s).