Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
910 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Updated northern areas for possible brief shower as secondary cold front enters the area this evening. /Tonight through Sunday/ Sprinkles and light showers are slowly spreading across southern Iowa this afternoon, while a few thunderstorms are sinking across central and eastern Nebraska, all in conjunction with a pair of mid-level troughs swinging down across the region. These troughs will phase and push down into northern Missouri tonight, resulting in a gradual end to the light rain in our south by midnight. As the aforementioned trough swings through tonight it will help push a large, cool surface area of high pressure from the Dakotas down across Iowa and surrounding states bringing several days of quiet, pleasant, and dry weather to the area in stark contrast to what we experienced last week.
1013 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A slow moving cold front will provide scattered showers and storms tonight and Monday. Cooler and drier air will settle by midweek, with an extended stretch of below normal temperatures and dry weather conditions expected for most of the upcoming week. However, as low pressure slowly moves east southeast into the area later tonight, some additional showers may develop to the north and west of the low. Midlevel energy ahead of the main trof axis will be working its work its way through the region Monday. Temperatures will be much cooler, only reaching the mid to upper 70s. A few storms could be lingering in the southeastern counties early Monday night, but high pressure building in from the Great Plains, will quickly push them out of the region while also bringing clearing skies.
MCS to the northwest is sagging southeast, and the CAM solutions still hint that this may impinge on at least northwesters portions of the area later tonight, so will keep the higher PoPs in place for later tonight especially plateau/SW Va. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 85 71 81 / 40 70 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 83 67 78 / 30 80 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 72 83 68 79 / 50 80 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 81 66 75 / 30 80 80 60.
1126 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 H5 ridge continues building northward during the next 36 hours, capping off most of the atmosphere across Wyoming. Kept best rain chances across the Absarokas, which are farther away from the core of the midlevel ridge. Even with an established ridge in place there will be enough moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon, especially across the north.
104 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 [Through 06Z Tuesday] Tricky forecast for thunderstorm coverage today with uncertainty surrounding how far north the storms go and whether or not the highest coverage will be in the east or the west. For now, have included TSRA at TLH and DHN as those seem to have the highest chances with VCTS at ECP and VLD. Overall pattern will be similar on Monday with the forecast area situated in a weakness between ridges to the east and west. By Tuesday, the trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to deepen and push a frontal boundary into central GA/AL.
224 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge building into the northern Rockies with large scale subsidence/dry air over the northern plains. On Tuesday, a bit more return flow expected with highs well into the 80s as thermal ridge nudges eastward into eastern Wyoming. CAPE will increase but large scale subsidence should limit any thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Black Hills.
The areas with the lowest flash flood guidance is NW Missouri and the KC Metro area which will both likely get 1-2" of rainfall with possible 3+" if multiple storms can move over the same area. High pressure will move into the area bringing late April like weather through the rest of the week with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s! Showers and thunderstorms blew through the terminals earlier this evening, with only lingering VCSH now, which will likely move east of the terminals by 06Z.
The long awaited cold front will arrive later today, but expect to see multiple rounds of showers and storms develop ahead of it. PWATs ahead of the front will be quite high (+2" for many spots), and freezing levels will be fairly high, so storms that develop today should be efficient rain producers.
359 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure settles in across the four corners region Monday through Tuesday. Cooler airmass will remain across the high plains with temperatures remain unseasonably cool as highs will only be in the mid to upper 70s for Monday. The northwest Sandhills will be slightly warmer with highs in the low 80s which is near normal. Upper level high pressure remains in place across the southwest CONUS through the week.
Said weather continues into Tuesday, although we'll see a bit more cumulus cloud development and temps a few degrees warmer with lower 80s expected.
1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Updated northern areas for possible brief shower as secondary cold front enters the area this evening.
A cold front will move south of the Ohio River today. Then, high pressure will gradually build in from the Plains. A cold front across south central Indiana will gradually move south today as an upper trough approaches from the western Great Lakes.
Replacing the hot and humid weather is a cooler and drier high pressure area that should dominate our weather throughout the week.
Aloft the pattern reflects a high pressure ridge building over the Rockies, in between a low pressure system to the west offshore in the Pacific Northwest, and to the east from Quebec through the Ohio Valley. The next couple of days will reflect cooler, more tolerable summer temperatures with the thermal axis oriented to our west. Temperatures for the first part of the workweek will see highs ranging from the upper 70s to the low 80s and lows in the 50s, which will run about 5-10 degrees below what we typically see this time of year when highs average in the upper 80s and lows average in the mid 60s. The outer periods will see a warming trend in temps as the cooler airmass associated with the eastern trough departs, and warmer air spreads across the plains with the expanding western ridge.
An upper level short wave trough is also moving south along the New Mexico state line. Upper level ridge over the 4- corners will build somewhat into Colorado today which will put the Panhandles under a northeast flow aloft which should help the current convection to continue moving southwest and out of our area by tonight. The upslope flow behind the cold front along with the cloud cover should keep highs in the 80s today.
A very amplified mid/upper pattern will commence Tue, with initial northerly flow aloft gradually slackening as the western CONUS trof expands eastward throughout the week. A cold front will come through Monday shifting winds around to the north and some morning showers.
VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, as a cold front works its way into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. /issued 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019/ Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. The eastern portion of the ridge extending across TX will recede as a trough strengthens over the Eastern portion of the country the next couple of days. A cold front is set to blow into the area Monday and drop temps below normal for the rest of the coming work week.
High pressure will slowly sink southward across the Plains through Tuesday. For today, highs should peak in the lower 80s. For tonight, we will start to see the return of SE winds as the high settles southward.
CAMs visibility output is currently favoring the Missouri River Valley and surrounding areas, which is where the center of the high is forecast to be during peak radiational cooling. Also trended low temperatures more toward the cooler end of guidance for tonight. Current surface analysis places high pressure over the southern Canadian prairies with low over the midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from the central Rockies northward towards the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. On Monday, ridge to the west strengthens which should keep us with quiet weather and near to a bit below average temperatures. Ridge will continue to bring quiet weather on Tuesday as ridge remains in place.
Ongoing convection across Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas will continue to push across much of the CWA overnight tonight as a cold front moves into the region.
216 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Modest N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies.
This should dissipate quickly this morning with some surface heating cu expected today in the cooler air. Highs today will be from 5 to 10 degrees below normal mainly in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
The subtropical ridge has retrograded to the west, anchored over the Four Corners as a trough digs over the eastern CONUS. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid- South today as the cold front moves across the CWA.
Current temp trends have fallen mainly into the upper 70s/lower 80s, and given a similar air mass with the past few mornings, lows again look to fall into the lower 70s for most spots. A deeper trough and associated surface front will push SE towards the TN Valley on Monday. The combination of rain and increasing cold air advection (can't believe that is being written here) will keep temperatures from rising much out of the lower 80s. High pressure will build into the area and a persistent trough will keep dry NW flow going for most of the rest of the work week.
High pressure early in the week will create excessively hot conditions along the Wastach Front and northwest Utah. High pressure centered near the Four Corners area this evening will continue to strengthen through Tuesday. Temperatures underneath this dome of high pressure will continue to rise during this time while moisture will gradually increase across the area.
409 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Currently across the Florida Keys, a tranquil morning is underway with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Beyond today the forecast is rather unremarkable, but it can be fairly neatly separated into a slightly wetter than normal first half and a slightly warmer than normal second half. The former will be due to relatively low heights aloft and weak flow at the surface as we are squeezed between the subtropical ridge axis to our southeast and a rather formidable mid-latitude trough (for late July) digging into the southeastern US.
356 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The approach and passage of a cold front will bring rain throughout the day. Drier cooler weather can be expected for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be much cooler today but it will remain humid until FROPA. The main area of showers will exit the SE ridge late this evening. Scattered to isolated showers are possible overnight as the upper level energy with the main trough axis crosses, and cold advection takes over. Cooler and much less humid air will spread across the region tonight. Cool, comparatively dry air will filter in behind the cold front on Tuesday. Cloud cover will gradually decrease through the day as high pressure builds into the region.
312 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Ongoing convection consisting of both decaying MCS and renewed convection along advancing cold front will continue to spread ESE through the day. Today will mark the start of notably cooler and eventually drier conditions which will persist through much of the work week.
The door to monsoon moisture will begin to open tomorrow as high pressure shifts toward the Four Corners. Along with high pressure shifting northward, these storms will aid in the transport of moisture farther north overnight into Monday. Satellite and upper-air data shows high pressure is currently centered over central New Mexico. On Monday, the high pressure center will setup near the Four Corners bringing increasing Monsoon moisture to the area from the south. The remainder of the week will see little movement of the high pressure ridge, allowing monsoonal moisture to remain in place.
253 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Today-Tonight: Relatively straightforward forecast as 850MB trough swings through southeast KS before daybreak, which should end any threat of precipitation in southeast KS. Cooler air will continue to spill into the area through tonight.
308 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 SE flow pattern to transition today as W Atlantic ridging over N Florida Peninsula begins to sink Sward. By Tuesday, an upper level trough will move into the eastern U.
255 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Beautiful start to the work week with drier and cooler conditions dominating the region. Upper flow pattern will continue to be dominated by an amplified ridge centered over the desert SW and a trough over the northeast U. Tuesday will be another nice day, but temperatures will run a bit warmer than Monday with highs mostly in the low 80s. Models are in good agreement showing the ridge breaking down by mid- week, bringing the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Upper level flow will transition to a more zonal component, leading to fast-moving ripples ahead of an upper level trough sliding into the Pacific Northwest.
253 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 An upper ridge will build into the four corners region today, leaving the central CONUS under northwesterly flow. At the surface, high pressure will build south through the forecast area, out of the Dakotas.
This, in addition to caa, will keep temps much cooler than yesterday with highs only making it into the mid to upper 80s for most locations. Warmer conditions will develop by Thu and continue into the weekend. By this time, we'll be on the eastern fringe of the upper ridge.
327 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A cold front was sagging through the TX Panhandle early this morning. Once the cold front clears the forecast area by early morning, our hopes for meaningful rainfall drop drastically. By tomorrow night, though, the good dry air from the front should finally be filtering in, clearing us out and bringing us a cooler night.
The current placement of the surface front is not clear, as a series of outflow boundaries have modified the low- level wind field. Drizzle or light rain may linger into early afternoon behind the surface front as rich moisture in the lowest 5,000 ft gets squeezed out by the approaching 850- mb front. In response, the 500- mb flow will become amplified and carve a longwave trough deep into the eastern CONUS. A much cooler and drier air mass will settle in behind the departing 850- mb front.
Upper level ridging and heat will amplify over the western CONUS, with northerly flow prevailing over our neck of the woods.
Otherwise, a cold front will continue to move into the state. The long awaited cold front will approach the region through Monday morning, and finally make a speedy passage through the state during the day and overnight hours. Behind the cold front, conditions will be drier and cooler, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Only adjustment to the forecast this evening was to lower low temperatures 5 to 7 degrees to trend closer to the cooler nighttime lows associated with the clear skies and dry airmass still in place.
Strong high pressure continues to build into the Northern Plains. with pronounced ridging building into the Western Great Lakes region.
A cold front and upper level trough will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the Cascades on Tuesday.
359 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A cooler start to the work week overall for the Midwest this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, with highs today again only reaching into the 80s. and around 11C-13C at 850mb, a full 10 degrees Celsius cooler than the middle of last week. Overall, the pattern over the CONUS starts to take shape with ridging over the western half, and a trough over the eastern half, keeping northwesterly flow over the midsection through at least midweek before it starts to morph. The northwesterly flow will keep the cooler temps in place. Traditionally, that northwesterly flow would be susceptible to waves propagating into the trough with a quick shower threat.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the area today as a cold front makes southward progress through the region. Otherwise, a general diminishing trend in the shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated from north to south throughout the day as the cold front passes through. In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air will take hold for the middle part of the week as high pressure builds south from Canada. Driving this is a pattern shift as an upper level high retrogrades into the western U. and a deep longwave trough develops over the eastern half of the nation.
1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Updated northern areas for possible brief shower as secondary cold front enters the area this evening.
A ridge moving over montana will bring increased heights through the next couple days, allowing temperatures to rise to the mid 90s by Tuesday.
Highs this afternoon will be a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s. Winds will shift to the southwest and begin to pick up a bit tonight as the center of the high moves away from the area.
With cooler air in place and reinforced by 850 hPa high pressure in the northern and central Plains, a cool day will prevail tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Meanwhile, lows tonight and tomorrow night will be largely slightly below normal most areas with lows reading in the lower to mid 50s. A strong amplified ridge at 500 hPa, of which the mean 500 hPa heights reach the 99th percentile per the NAEFS, is expected to be in place early Tuesday upstream that extends form the Four Corners into Alberta and Saskatchewan.
323 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Early this morning the mid level trough was moving off into Missouri with precipitation located south of Garnett moving off to the south. Northerly winds will usher in drier air today and cooler temperatures are expected as well which will make for a pleasant day. A northwest flow pattern will continue into late week with the upper high in the west and a trough in the east.
346 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Today and Tonight: While mid level ridge continues to build over the Intermountain West, an abnormally strong mid level trough will dig southeast through the MS and OH valleys today and tonight. The cold front associated with this trough will dive anomalously far south into and through the forecast area today through tonight. While airmass convection will get underway by late morning over the area, convection will increase over northern portions by mid afternoon as the pre-frontal trough moves in from the northwest. The actual cold front looks to lag behind the trough some hundred miles or so.
1033 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 As expected, the area is in between two more obvious systems this afternoon - a trough across ND and a convective wave scooting across northern MO. Overall, the shearing of the feature and loss of any diurnal support should dwindle coverage by early to mid evening, with quiet weather to follow as cooler and drier high pressure sinks toward the area. Amplified ridge west/trough east pattern keeps area under influence of the low-level ridging into midweek, meaning continued dry and a bit more enhanced diurnal range, mainly upper 70s to mid 80s for highs and mid 50s to around 60 for lows.
1148 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A welcome return to more seasonable summer weather today as Canadian high pressure continues to slide into the region. Skies will clear out and winds will diminish overnight with high pressure overhead so some areas of fog are expected by tomorrow morning, but drier dewpoints advecting in overnight should keep it limited to low-lying areas. Expect plenty of sunshine and light winds on Monday as the high becomes centered over the upper Midwest.
An effective frontal boundary has moved into Oklahoma, with cooler and more humid conditions over western Kansas this afternoon. By mid to late week, upper level ridging will nudge eastward across the high plains. An upper level trough moving across the northern plains on the northern periphery of the ridge could push a cold front into western Kansas by the weekend.
In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler.
Some lighter rain does trail the low to the north and northwest but this will be exiting through late afternoon as well. An upper trough will be moving across the area tonight but the best moisture will be shunted south of the forecast area. A cooler night is in store with lows in the low to mid 60s. Large high pressure will be spreading across the upper midwest and northern Plains on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the far south in the morning. Along with cooler high temps in the mid/upper 70s. As the high moves more southerly into the central Plains on Tuesday.
Mostly dry weather will prevail through the week except for Tuesday afternoon when an upper trough axis comes through and lapse rates steepen.
255 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Strong high pressure overhead will result in much warmer temperatures through early this week, peaking Tuesday with temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s.
The approach of a trough and embedded MCVs will help initiate the activity in a very moist environment.
MVFR ceilings have developed behind a cold front and will mainly impact terminals across the northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma. This, in addition to caa, will keep temps much cooler than yesterday with highs only making it into the mid to upper 80s for most locations. Warmer conditions will develop by Thu and continue into the weekend. By this time, we'll be on the eastern fringe of the upper ridge.
Strong high pressure overhead will result in much warmer temperatures through early this week, peaking Tuesday with temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s.
Possible Rain and Cooler. A cold front will push south, across West Central Texas, today and bring the potential for rain and cooler temperatures. Then, warmer moist air, moving over the cooler air near the surface, may initiate showers and thunderstorms, over a greater area of West Central Texas tonight.
626 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A cooler start to the work week overall for the Midwest this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, with highs today again only reaching into the 80s. and around 11C-13C at 850mb, a full 10 degrees Celsius cooler than the middle of last week. Overall, the pattern over the CONUS starts to take shape with ridging over the western half, and a trough over the eastern half, keeping northwesterly flow over the midsection through at least midweek before it starts to morph. The northwesterly flow will keep the cooler temps in place. Traditionally, that northwesterly flow would be susceptible to waves propagating into the trough with a quick shower threat.
The axis of the ridge of high pressure will be over eastern Montana today, causing weak southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies. Also temperatures will be climbing well into the 90s for most locations and even into the 100s for the lower valleys of north central Idaho.
619 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure settles in across the four corners region Monday through Tuesday. Cooler airmass will remain across the high plains with temperatures remain unseasonably cool as highs will only be in the mid to upper 70s for Monday. The northwest Sandhills will be slightly warmer with highs in the low 80s which is near normal. Upper level high pressure remains in place across the southwest CONUS through the week.
This will help fuel thunderstorms later today across our southern mountains which will be drifting southward through the evening thanks to the upper high building into Redrock Country. However there is this subsidence ridge aloft so confidence not strong at all. Models continue to spike PWAT over our CWA during the mid week period as the northern amplification of the ridge is squashed and the moisture plume to our West is carried our way by increasing westerlies. more cloudiness and hence cooler temperatures.