Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
613 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (Now through Tuesday) KBRO Doppler radar indicates isolated convection over the lower Texas coastal waters and three immediate coastal counties right now. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the period as a weak inverted 500 mb trough approaches from the east.
With clear skies, lows will be cool, mostly in the lower 50s. Went a few degrees cooler, incorporating the latest MET and MAV guidance. Afternoon humidity will fall into the low 20s percent with light winds as fire weather conditions approach elevated conditions.
124 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a trough pushing into the Great Lakes region, with a broad ridge building over the Pacific NW. Beneath the upper ridge, warm and dry weather with mostly sunny skies and light winds will continue for the next few days.
A weak cold front will push south through the area during the early morning hours this morning. Slightly cooler behind it will result in highs today in the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. Upper level ridging will build over the Great Basin and Central Rockies today. The models maintain a ridge of high pressure aloft centered over the Great Basin region this week. This will result in mainly thunderstorm coverage each afternoon/early evening over the higher terrain.
1042 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Currently an upper level low swirls in southern MB, moving eastward. The cold front that dropped temperatures to pleasantly below normal today currently drapes across MN and IA. Closer to home, high pressure is moving into the region. Conditions will be sunny and dry as a ridge builds up in the west and brings northwesterly flow over the region. Model guidance indicates the ridge stays over the western US and brings dry and warm to hot conditions for our area. Models seem to be in fairly good agreement that the ridge maintains or builds strength through the weekend, heralding a hot and dry stretch of weather.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front that extended from near Marquette MI south-southwest through the Bay of Green Bay, then southwest through southwest WI. An area of low pressure was situated near Hudson Bay with high pressure over the northern/ central High Plains. After some lingering clouds Tuesday morning over northern and eastern WI, high pressure is forecast to move into the Midwest during the afternoon and bring increasing sunshine to the region. Max temperatures to be in the lower to middle 70s north, middle to upper 70s south.
350 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Discussion/Marine Sfc cold front sends a line of strong to severe storms through the area over the next couple hours, exiting to the east by 6 PM. Amplifying upper trough lags behind the sfc front so additional showers and thunderstorm development will remain possible behind the current line as the front slows down. There should be a fairly extensive cu/sc field north of I-96 and perhaps a few showers as secondary trough/cold front swings through.
A cold front will enter north Arkansas Tuesday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an upper trough over the northern Plains. By tonight, the trough will extend through the Great Lakes. As this trough moves east Tuesday a large upper ridge will build over the Rockies. Expect humid conditions today and Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. This next cold front will enter north Arkansas Tuesday morning and move through the state during the day.
/19/ (Monday through Tuesday) An inverted upper-level trough across the western Gulf of Mexico will merge with an eastward moving trough across the mid- CONUS over the next couple of days. Scattered convection to possibly linger into the late evening hours before gradually dissipating near midnight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. As upper-trough across the midwest swings east across the ArkLaTex and merges with the gulf trough late tonight, could see a resurgence of widespread convection across the ArkLaTex by daybreak and continuing into the day on Tuesday.
An established ridge of High pressure will strengthen over the Northern Rockies and persist through the end of the week. The lower valleys across North Central Idaho can expect temperatures from 105-112 degrees, especially in the lower hells canyon.
(This evening through Tuesday night) An upper level short wave trough was slowly moving south through eastern New Mexico. More thunderstorms will be possible mainly for the southern Texas Panhandle towards sunrise along the cold front.
310 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: The storms have pushed out of the area and while the front lags a bit behind no further storms are expected with most of the area seeing much drier air pushing in in the low to mid levels. Overnight we expect a large UL trough to roll through but despite the large forcing associated moisture will be non-existent keeping us dry. Into the day Tuesday high pressure will push further east centered to the southeast of the CWA.
207 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper ridge centered over the western CONUS will be main feature through the short term period. The ridge nudges across the Rockies tomorrow resulting in sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
An established ridge of High pressure will strengthen over the Northern Rockies and persist through the end of the week. The lower valleys across north-central Idaho can expect temperatures from 105-112 degrees, especially in the lower Hells Canyon.
/19/ (Monday through Tuesday) An inverted upper-level trough across the western Gulf of Mexico will merge with an eastward moving trough across the mid-CONUS over the next couple of days. Scattered convection to possibly linger into the late evening hours before gradually dissipating near midnight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. As upper-trough across the midwest swings east across the ArkLaTex and merges with the gulf trough late tonight, could see a resurgence of widespread convection across the ArkLaTex by daybreak and continuing into the day on Tuesday.
The first wave will target the southern CWA this morning, whereas the second wave will ride southeast into the area along a cold front this afternoon through tonight. An upper level trough is entering the Upper Midwest this morning and is expected to be in the Great Lakes region by tomorrow. This evening into the overnight hours, a cold front will sweep across the area and over the local terminals.
The upper level trof will begin exiting the Midwest, taking the Low pressure core eastward through the eastern half of Canada. As this happens, the upper level High pressure system over the western CONUS really begins to strengthen.
Tweaked this afternoon's high temperatures, as latest guidance showed a degree or two cooler temperatures. Discussion: High pressure remains largely in control but does begin to shift further east today ahead of an incoming upper level trough. Chances of rain begin to increase after midnight across the Cumberland Plateau ahead of an incoming cold front.
(Tonight) An upper level trough will swing through the Great Lakes tonight which will pull a cold front down into the region. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will linger through the night and with the increase in cloud cover, lows will be mild in the lower 70s.
A warming trend begins Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area and remains through the week. A warming trend will continue as high pressure builds into the West.
Tue-Thu: While there may be some lingering showers and storms early Tuesday morning along the frontal boundary, Tuesday will start a period of dry, but still warm conditions has the region is influenced by the eastern edge of a large upper ridge that will be centered over the Great Basin. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 90s, which is seasonably warm for this time of year.
Boaters and residents should plan for peak amplitude tides, with more scope needed in spring and dock lines, and less clearance available under the lowest bridges during high tide. From synopsis, high pressure over the central North Atlantic will maintain promote gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
Lots of sun anticipated for Tuesday with highs about 10 or so degrees warmer than today. A cold front will drop southward out of Manitoba/Ontario Tuesday night. The pattern is mainly stagnant to begin the period as a broad upper ridge is in place over the western half of the country. Temperatures are forecast to remain on the warmer side as the ridge remains in place and southwesterly flow near the surface helps transport warmer air across the region.
The next round of storms will impact the forecast area overnight as a wave travels south-southwestward around the Southwest ridge and pushes a cold front southward into the area. The cold front will likely stall in southern Oklahoma and provide the focus for the redevelopment of storms across southern Oklahoma and western North Texas tomorrow.
A ridge of high pressure is centered over east Idaho this afternoon while a weak trough moves up the western side of the ridge. However, the trough is weakening and there's not much moisture to work with. The bigger story is the heat associated with the ridge which will amplify over the region.
That being said, dewpoints well into the 50s remains as far north as Clark County and satellite trends as of 19Z show CU development over many of the high terrain areas. 12Z HREF maintained isolated convection with a favoring of the HWY 93 corridor and the high terrain of Clark county. A typical setup of H5 ridging squarely over the CWA will set up as early as tomorrow and strengthen rather quickly.
The axis of a 500mb trough, located over the upper Midwest and central Canada, helped to generate some scattered thunderstorms north of I-20 today. Tonight and tomorrow a cold front, located over the central Plains, will drop southward into Oklahoma. As this occurs, an inverted upper-level trough will break off from the Upper Midwest trough and spin over far west Texas.
247 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 The short term forecast will remain warm, mostly dry, and uneventful as an upper-level, high amplitude ridge hangs out over western CONUS. Conditions this afternoon are quite dry, with current visible satellite imagery showing a handful of clouds across the high terrain. Tuesday looks like a repeat of Monday, but warmer. The upper-level ridge strengthens and amplifies over western CONUS which will cause further warming over the area. Tuesday temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer, with highs in the 80s and 90s.
Elsewhere, temperature have risen into the lower 80s, with impacts from the ongoing drought apparent in highs climbing above most model guidance. Clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling, with lows in the lower 50s in most locations. TUESDAY: A great day is expected Tuesday as the area remains under the influence of high pressure.
Tweaked this afternoon's high temperatures, as latest guidance showed a degree or two cooler temperatures. In the last 6 hours of the TAF period, the cold front that will bring increased chances of precipitation and a bit stronger winds was introduced and entered as a PROB group. Discussion: High pressure remains largely in control but does begin to shift further east today ahead of an incoming upper level trough. Chances of rain begin to increase after midnight across the Cumberland Plateau ahead of an incoming cold front.
There is a midweek system as a short wave tops the ridge that remains in place across the Rockies.
With most of the area flanked by higher PWAT content to the east and west, and without any appreciable focus mechanisms locally, shower and storm chances are on the lower end today; however, at least spotty activity is expected. Conditions will be quiet tonight with low temperatures in the lower 70s most areas. The base of an upper-level trough will skirt by the region on Tuesday with a front approaching from the northwest.
A weak mid level trough/shear axis stretches from OH River Valley into northern AR.
That will be the case until the cold front sags south into the area late in the night, which may concentrate another area of showers/storms along and ahead of it.
212 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 An active day was seen through much of the area today, as a slow moving cold front fired up some strong to severe storms throughout the area. Remaining showers/storms along the cold front may be seen along and south of the Highway 34 corridor. Cold front slowly continues to push out of the area this evening and will be out of the area by nightfall. High pressure moves in and we will sit with clear skies and a northwest breeze. Key Message: 1) Seasonable weather will be seen through midweek, as high pressure settles in and we remain in northwest flow. High pressure moves in midweek, which will leave us with quiet and seasonal weather.
257 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 A dominating ridge of high pressure will build eastward and center itself over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Tuesday. This will bring even warmer temperatures to the forecast area, along with a continuation of dry weather. A ridge will build up over the western states this week, centered generally over the Great Basin. This will mean persistent warm and dry conditions across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations. Expect generally isolated afternoon and evening convection mostly confined to the high terrain and favoring the southern Front Range.
Otherwise, after the deck mixes out, the focus shifts to a frontal boundary pushing into the northern CWA by afternoon as it becomes less juxtaposed from the associated piece of upper trough energy.
This afternoon's water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mid level trough moving east across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region, which was responsible for pushing a weak cold front south across Kansas. Late this afternoon, surface observation plot and clear-air radar returns showed a weak low pressure area at the surface centered near Dodge City. There were a couple areas of enhanced boundary layer convergence in vicinity of this low and the cold front, and any of these enhanced areas of convergence may be enough to initiate surface-based convection. Thunderstorm chances will trend downward fairly significantly early Tuesday morning as the cold front continues to move south across southwest and eventually through south central Kansas.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Hot and dry conditions return to the region this week with upper ridge build over the western states. Expect some breezy conditions over the eastern zones today with low pressure moving east and high pressure pressing into the state.
A rather weak pattern aloft will persist over the Northern Gulf Coast today as mid level ridging lingers over the area and an upper trough slides over the North and Central Plains. Down at the surface, a weak ridge axis has nosed its way into portions of south central Alabama and the northwestern Florida Panhandle. This surface ridging has brought some slightly drier air into these areas today with precipitable water values ranging from 1. Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the upper 80s with a few areas in the lower 90s which has resulted in ample instability across the area. The mid level ridging across the Southeast has also resulted in mid level dry air and DCAPEs ranging from 800-1000 J/Kg.
An inverted low-level trough as well as a mid-level low will continue to push westward tonight.
As high pressure strengthens north of the area, we'll see hotter afternoons the first half of the week. Excessive heat thresholds should remain west of the area, with the hottest temperatures expected in the lower deserts as high pressure aloft strengthens.
Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 70s in the rain-cooled air mass across much of the region. On Tuesday, look for similar conditions once again as convection will increase ahead of a cold front shifting south toward the region. As a result, temperatures should continue to run slightly below normal on Tuesday with the cold front advancing as convection gradually shifts along and south of I-20 overnight.
The mid-upper level ridge remains in place. Mid week a slight change occurs as the mid level ridge extending from the mid Atlantic begins to break down. End of week: Mid level ridging begins to strengthen off the east coast strengthening the SE flow, and bringing the more typical summertime patter of showers in the interior in the afternoon moving towards the coast in the evening.
1223 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Dry and warm weather will be interrupted by rain in advance of a Tuesday cold front. Dry and cooler weather will then persist into the holiday weekend. The cold front is projected to complete passage by Tuesday late afternoon/evening. Given an increase in mid level wind/steering flow to approx 30 kt, convective element speed and upper trough progression should alleviate any widepread flash flood threat. Direct impact probabilities are highest near ZZV, FKL, and HLG, where the approach of forcing will coincide with the highest daytime instability. Continued restrictions via aftn tsra are likely Tues with a passing cold front. VFR under high pressure will likely dominate the remainder of the week.
Some indication in the 12Z CAMs that another round of convection developing near/along advancing cold front across KS will drop south into NE OK/NW AR late tonight as well. While the meteorological term for this boundary is a cold front technically, it will not feel "cold" behind this boundary.
231 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper ridge centered over the western CONUS will be main feature through the short term period. The ridge nudges across the Rockies tomorrow resulting in sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
A weak mid level trough extends from the OH Valley into northern Arkansas. A more potent mid level trough will move into the Great Lakes tonight and drive a cold front south.
Large persistent upper level ridge will remain the dominate feature over the Intermountain West through the much of the forecast period.
1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (Now through Tuesday) KBRO Doppler radar indicates isolated convection over the lower Texas coastal waters and three immediate coastal counties right now. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the period as a weak inverted 500 mb trough approaches from the east.
This high impact heat wave will be a result of a strong upper ridge building over our region.
As high pressure strengthens north of the area, we'll see hotter afternoons the first half of the week.
An inverted trough is expected to develop over the northeastern Gulf this evening, which will extend northeast across the region Tonight into Tuesday morning. The development of the inverted trough will cause convective activity to hang on a little longer this evening, and re develop a little earlier Tuesday morning. The high will build more to the east Tuesday afternoon.
Cold front arrives early Tuesday bringing increased chances of showers and thunderstorms. Behind it, cooler temperatures and clear conditions. High pressure will continue to dominate today with very isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening mostly confined to the higher terrain. Weather turns active early Tuesday as a cold front is forecast to sweep across the area.
Strengthening high pressure will be centered north of the state through Tuesday, with the center gradually shifting westward into Nevada by later in the week and the weekend.
1053 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into tonight in the moist and unstable airmass ahead of a cold front. The cold front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday with precipitation chances ending. Cooler and drier weather returns starting mid week under the influence of high pressure. Mid level trof to pivot thru the Great Lakes with a surface cold front pushing thru the area during the morning in the west and by early aftn in the far southeast. Cooler and drier air with high temperatures from the upper 70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest. Expect clear skies and cooler conditions with lows of 55 to 60. Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place to start the period as the mean axis of an H5 trough pushes through the Midwest region.
500 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 The short term forecast will remain warm, mostly dry, and uneventful as an upper-level, high amplitude ridge hangs out over western CONUS. Conditions this afternoon are quite dry, with current visible satellite imagery showing a handful of clouds across the high terrain. Tuesday looks like a repeat of Monday, but warmer. The upper-level ridge strengthens and amplifies over western CONUS which will cause further warming over the area. Tuesday temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer, with highs in the 80s and 90s.
An active day was seen through much of the area today, as a slow moving cold front fired up some strong to severe storms throughout the area. Remaining showers/storms along the cold front may be seen along and south of the Highway 34 corridor. Cold front slowly continues to push out of the area this evening and will be out of the area by nightfall. High pressure moves in and we will sit with clear skies and a northwest breeze. Key Message: 1) Seasonable weather will be seen through midweek, as high pressure settles in and we remain in northwest flow. High pressure moves in midweek, which will leave us with quiet and seasonal weather.
303 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper ridging with dry air in place is really limiting shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon, with only a few showers noted across the far southern mountains. Similar pattern and trends on Tuesday, with any precip development expected to be really isolated and confined to the higher terrain.
746 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Strengthening upper level ridge will bring continued dry weather w/ a warming trend.
820 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Aviation Sfc cold front sends a line of strong to severe storms through the area over the next couple hours, exiting to the east by 6 PM. Amplifying upper trough lags behind the sfc front so additional showers and thunderstorm development will remain possible behind the current line as the front slows down. There should be a fairly extensive cu/sc field north of I-96 and perhaps a few showers as secondary trough/cold front swings through.
A warming trend begins Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area and remains through the week. A warming trend begins Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area and remains through the week. A warming trend will continue as high pressure builds into the West.
713 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Rain chance continue through Tuesday in advance of a cold front. Dry and cooler weather will then persist into the holiday weekend. The cold front is projected to complete passage by Tuesday late afternoon/evening. Given an increase in mid level wind/steering flow to approx 30 kt, convective element speed and upper trough progression should alleviate any widespread flash flood threat.
642 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (This evening through Tuesday night) An upper level short wave trough was slowly moving south through eastern New Mexico. More thunderstorms will be possible mainly for the southern Texas Panhandle towards sunrise along the cold front.
The only exception will be as isolated showers and thunderstorms could briefly drop vsby to MVFR/IFR conds in the strongest cells Monday evening into Monday night as a cold front moves across the state.
While the meteorological term for this boundary is a cold front technically, it will not feel "cold" behind this boundary.
Coverage of activity ascd with diurnal pcpn was on the lower side late this aftn. Atlantic ridge at the surface and mid-level ridge aloft extends westward across the southern half of Central FL into tomorrow, with a deeper S/SW flow expected. Highs will continue to reach the low 90s with heat index values around 100-105F before storms and cloud cover increase through mid to late afternoon.