Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will move south through KCNM and KHOB around 12/00Z, then through the rest of the sites by 12/06Z, with gusty north to northeast winds behind it. /issued 316 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ An upper trough moving across the TX Panhandle this morning continues to weaken. A strong cold front will arrive late today with gusty northerly winds developing behind it. another UA trough will move east along the U. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night as the trough moves across the area.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED LOWER PRESSURE ENTERS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE LOW LEVELS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE HIGHER RH REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BRO CWFA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MAKES IT ROUGHLY AS FAR AS A SARITA TO HEBBRONVILLE TO LAREDO LINE. NO COOLER AIR INFLUX WILL MEAN INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WERE INHERITED AND RETAINED.
224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW WANED A BIT EARLIER TODAY, BUT MANY AREAS OVER THE SIERRA ARE RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE CLOUDS. BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL END MONDAY AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.
DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT TEMP RISES AT BAY AND FILTER IN DRIER AIR FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SRN AL.
ITS BEEN A WARM BUT GENERALLY NICE LATE JUNE DAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH MORE HUMIDITY EVEN IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAIN DURING THE DAY IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT ALL.
222 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015 A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north central through central MO.
MID LEVELS ARE PRETTY MOIST WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE IN THE LOWEST 2.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AMPLIFIED BUBBLE HIGH OVR THE WRN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND BITS OF MID/UPR MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH. SW TROF W OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AMPLIFIED TROF ERN CONUS. MOST CI WILL START IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
AND LOWS SO FAR ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SO FAR. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN IN DAYS PAST AS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THUNDER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US TRYING TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL PREVENT THE COOLER AIR FROM EASTERN CANADA FROM ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
203 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WITH THE TROUGH PIVOTING OVERHEAD AND JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE SPOTTY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY HOWEVER.
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY. OTHERWISE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW AGAIN TODAY. WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. BUT IT WILL REMAIN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
This feature will also be accompanied by a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. Some of these storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TOWERING RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF COLORADO AND CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE STATE. MEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE U. EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC COLD FRONT.
331 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BRINGING INTENSE HEAT TO THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
353 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 (Tonight and Monday) An Omega block pattern has developed over the country, with a strong ridge centered over the Intermountain west and a trough over the northeastern states.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO N AL WITH DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.
456 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL.
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL.
WITH A +2 SD RIDGE/SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE W AND A -2 SD TROF/LOW OVER THE E. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SSE AND MOVE THRU HERE TOMORROW WITH ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON OUR WX DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS RIDGING REACHES NORTH INTO WRN CANADA. AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THOUGH A DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE H5 PATTERN HAD THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LARGE TROF TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds, especially during the onset of storms as the low levels will be very dry.
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WE FIND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ONLY SHOWERS UP ON THE KEY WEST RADAR ARE NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND EAST OF CAPE SABLE. A UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
114 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY. AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HAZY SKIES TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
550 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY ENHANCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY, THE WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL LEVEL OFF THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER.
NEXT IN LONG LINE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING SPARKING SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION. LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING AS WAVE DIVES INTO UPPER TROUGH. LOOKING FOR RAIN FREE PERIODS IN THIS FORECAST REGIME IS TOUGH CONSIDERING SEEMINGLY ENDLESS FLOW OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD TODAY.
Thunderstorms should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70 by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with mixing up to near 800mb.
308 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO THE "COOLEST" DAY OF THE WEEK, EVEN THEN TEMPERATURES FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS WEST TEXAS REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW STORM CHANCES COULD RENEW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CENTERED NEAR 700 MB IS FOCUSED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY DEPARTS.
/ISSUED 346 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ OVERALL QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT TERM ON TAP BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD FRONT ACTIVITY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH.
409 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINING A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S /LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LAKE SHORE AREAS COURTESY NW FLOW OFF LK MI/.
SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LONG DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL BE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH.
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY THEN BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN EXTREMELY WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. LEE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXPANSIVE WRN STATES RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING NWD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OFF THE COAST OF CA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PV ANOMALIES RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND COMING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SEEING NRLY SFC FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATING TCU/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN WY AND THE CO MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY PUTTING THE AREA IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
The rest of today should be pleasant, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80, as high pressure scoots by south of the area, and we sit between vortmaxes aloft. If we get warmer than in this forecast, we could see some small hail with any stronger storms that develop during the late afternoon. In addition to the rain chances, we should see some gradient winds during the day Monday, as low pressure moves by to our north.
1126 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN STUCK IN PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ON MONDAY IN AREAS WHICH WILL NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING OTHER THAN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE HIGH 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER.
339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY.
323 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 CENTRAL OHIO IS IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH FROM ABOUT MID WEEK ONWARD THERE WILL BE SOME ALTERATIONS THAT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR AREA.
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ IT'S BEEN A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MAIN CONCERNS SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER IOWA DIGGING SOUTH. WE REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 20Z. SOME WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THIS HOUR. LCL HEIGHTS EAST OF I35 REMAIN AT 750M (~2450 FT) AND LOW LEVEL CAPE HAS INCREASED TO 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SO LOWS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY MORNING.
REMNANT COLD FRONT OR BOUNDARY BASICALLY STALLED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ATTM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. THE UPPER FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE NWLY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS SHEARING APART JUST W OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES NNE. THIS LOW HAS ENTRAINED DRY AIR WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY S OFF THE CA COAST. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT N BETWEEN THE LOW AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER HIGH ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE COAST ON MON BRINGING A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ON TUE AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
333 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE APPROACHING ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WILL WASHOUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
At this time, lifted condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential across central Missouri. A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western U.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL FORECASTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN AT 925/850 MB SO WILL LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES ON TO TODAYS HIGHS WHICH WILL PUT MANY AREAS AROUND 90 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UNSEASONABLE COOL START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this afternoon.
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
505 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GOOD SOAKING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA.
ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND HAS LEFT AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ALL THIS CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE 50S.
MODERATELY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP INTO EASTERN IA BY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MO. AFTER HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 14C. A LITTLE WARMER THIS EVENING AS WINDS GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN ADDITION TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH THE PRECIP TRAPPING THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN CI /AND LIMITED COVERAGE SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP/ WE HAVE MAINTAIN POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT WHERE THE THUNDER MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS. PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH 240 HOURS.
AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTING CLOSED LOW OVER LK ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS CLOSED UPPER LOW. A CONTINUATION OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF THE REST OF WEEK BRINGING SCTD PRECIP MOST DAYS THOUGH WED THROUGH THU NIGHT APPEAR TO BE DRIER.
119 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY HOT LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.