Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper-level trough will move eastward out of the Great Lakes region today, allowing for weak ridging to move into the Quad State temporarily. High pressure and clear skies will make for a pleasant day with highs ranging from the low 60s in the Evansville Tri-state to near 70 for the Ozark foothills. Cloud cover will spread through the Quad State during the day from west to east, resulting in eastern areas to have highs in the upper 60s while Southeast Missouri will be comparatively cooler. Southerly winds will bring in Gulf Moisture, raising dewpoints and keeping lows Wednesday night in the lower 50s.
A cold front will be exiting to the east today as high pressure settles from the upper Midwest into the mid-Mississippi Valley. We'll be a little cooler than yesterday, with highs mostly from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Going just a bit on the cool side of model consensus gives lows mostly in the middle and upper 30s, cooler in the usual sheltered rural cold spots. An associated warm front extending east of the system will increase rain chances Wednesday night from southwest to northeast into the CWA.
A cold front in KY and southern MO will tend to weaken today. Afternoon highs in the 72-75F range in valleys with u60s-a70 atop the higher plateau areas look good at this point. No significant changes A weak cold front will move across the region this evening, bringing a NW flow and somewhat colder air. The cooler airmass will be felt for the midweek, with highs only in upper 60s. A system across the central California coast will move eastward in the prevailing westerlies, bringing progressive troughing towards the SE CONUS.
1005 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure will move away from the region this morning with a weak cold front crossing the region this evening.
High pressure strengthens late week with temperatures near or slightly above average warming to well above average over the weekend. High pressure builds over most of the region Wednesday; however, a low amplitude upper wave is still expected to skirt extreme northern California and Nevada for a low chance of light rain north of Susanville and Gerlach.
/issued 323 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ Broad troughing remains over much of the eastern part of the country while at the surface, low pressure has exited off the New England coast with its associated cold front still over south Florida. For today, high pressure will build in from the west, with rain chances coming to an end later this morning. Afternoon highs will still be warm, but the lower dew points should make it feel at least a bit nicer outside.
/issued 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Low pressure swings through the Great Lakes today and a new low pressure system deepens across the southern Plains tomorrow. A cold front attempts a southern trek into Central Texas on Wednesday.
921 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure nearly overhead this morning is yielding light winds and mostly clear skies across the region with the exception of a few bands of high clouds noted over southeast Texas and parts of Rapides parish. Quiet weather will prevail in the wake of this system on FRI, with global models advertising another (mostly dry) front crossing the area FRI night, with dry high pressure prevailing for the weekend. 13 Light east to southeast winds will prevail today, becoming more modest tonight as high pressure departs to the east and an area of low pressure develops over the Texas panhandle. This onshore flow will strengthen further Wednesday and Wednesday night as this low tracks east across the Southern Plains.
/issued 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ High pressure will build into the Mid-South today. Clouds will begin to increase tonight as high pressure shifts to the east and a warm front begins to lift northeastward across the Southern Plains. The warm front will continue lifting northeastward during the day on Wednesday. Best instability will occur across North Mississippi where a secondary warm front will lift northward and stall during the overnight hours.
An area of low pressure will slowly move across the area today and be east over Arizona by dusk. The weather gets much warmer by mid week and lasts into the weekend. At 3 am this morning, low pressure was centered over the central portions of the CWA with light showers over portions of Inyo, Nye, Clark, and Lincoln counties. The low is forecast to be east of the area by late this afternoon but a secondary piece of energy will dive through southern Nevada this afternoon keeping the atmosphere weakly unstable over portions of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Tonight is expected to be dry as the low moves away.
Only minor update was decreasing relative humitidy values acorss the region, mainly in the lower elevations that will likely see gusty winds today.
Overnight lows should drop into the middle 30s in the east to the lower 40s in the west. Milder are expected Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s, along with breezy southwest winds. Dry weather will continue across the area tonight as a high pressure area moves across the region. The associated low pressure area with this system will move across the middle Miss valley and south of the CWA. The main system moving across the south will also bring much warmer temps to the area for Wed, reaching to around 70 over most of the area.
It will be difficult to get anything at the surface from the mid level clouds as it is pretty dry in the lower levels. There was already a good range in temperatures across the warm front this morning with temperatures around 60 degrees in central sd with mid 30s in far northeast sd. Transient high pressure at the sfc today will shift to the southeast as low pressure moves in from the northwest. Warm air advection will push in from the southwest as the edge of a ridge aloft increases heights today. So, temps will be a bit cooler across the west, but still above average with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
158 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Deep mixing and gustiness will diminish greatly by sunset as the cold front drops southeast and weakens over the area. Expect overnight lows in the lower 40s in southern middle TN and mid 40s in north AL.
The trough will push east of the state tonight, with decreasing shower chances and clearing skies.
The unseasonably cold air will bring widespread freezing conditions with freeze warnings remaining in effect for parts of south central PA where the growing season is active. A weak dome of high pressure moves into northwest PA by Wednesday evening. This will bring clear skies but gradient winds from a deep low pressure system over Quebec will remain breezy Wednesday evening before tapering off overnight.
This activity is associated with a warm front lifting through Kan/Colo. This will send a weak Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska producing northwest winds Wednesday. The guidance blend is warmer during the day and cooler at night than the short term model blend.
RMS Upper ridging will continue through today and most of Wednesday, allowing temperatures to warm up even more via downslope winds and mixing. Today is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with most locations reaching the low 70s, and could become the warmest day of the year thus far. After a night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, Wednesday will be more of the same, albeit slightly cooler.
Will maintain a chance of storms across the higher elevations of Summit and Park counties with some light snow possible into the afternoon hours. There is a thin band of moisture associated with this trough that is currently producing showers across southwest Colorado. The instability combined with the weak lift from the trough will produce showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
945 AM PDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A trough of low pressure over southern California will move east today with decreasing clouds west of the mountains. High pressure aloft will then strengthen near the West Coast bringing a warming trend.
However, continue onshore flow and periods of night/morning low clouds may keep conditions cooler near the coast. A region-wide warming trend will continue through late week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific.
With relatively high amplitude ridging over the wrn CONUS/NH extending into the High Plains, temps have climbed above normal this aftn under mostly clear skies. However, based on satellite imagery, particularly WV, this wave is quite moisture starved, and obs show little change in air mass behind an associated sfc trof.
Today will begin with clear skies and calmer winds compared to yesterday as weak surface ridging briefly impacts the Northland. A low pressure dropping down from Saskatchewan will traverse over the Northern Plains and begin impacting MN this evening. It's associated warm front will push eastward bringing scattered rain showers that transition into light snow showers tonight. Strong WAA will filter in behind this system which may lead to some freezing rain pushing through the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Farther north will be a little cooler with highs in the 40s for the eastern portion of the Arrowhead.
200 PM PDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure will build the remainder of this week and bring the warmest weather so far this spring.
High pressure has come in behind the front and we have seen a beautiful day across the area with clear skies and warm temperatures. Much of the same can be said for our Wednesday as the high pressure slides off into the Atlantic.
The unseasonably cold air will bring widespread freezing conditions with freeze warnings remaining in effect for parts of south central PA where the growing season is active.
Plenty of sunshine with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday/middle 60s to lower 70s.
An approaching trough will generate showers across eastern Oregon early Wednesday afternoon, with activity spreading into Idaho through the afternoon.
1120 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Current upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with a trof across the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the west. At the surface, high pressure resides across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Low pressure is located across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan with a lee trof across central Montana and Wyoming. Upper ridge will reside across the western CONUS for Today and Wednesday with quiet weather expected and above average temperatures.
310 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will begin to subside some late this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
307 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A strong cold front will sweep offshore this evening preceded by a line of showers and isolated thunder.
With the sunny skies, temperatures are up into the low to mid 80s as of 1 pm, with highs likely to reach the low 90s west of the dry-line and south of the front (Northern Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley). Tonight, the warm front will lift north through the Big Country while the dry-line retreats west of the region, with strengthening southerly flow bringing in high dew points (upper 60s), low clouds and isentropic lift resulting in chances for showers. Wednesday morning, the the dry-line will quickly move west to east across the region as an upper level trough moves into the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma.
305 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Mid to upper troughing will push away to the east as a weak cold front progresses through far southern Florida. High pressure will continue building into our area for tonight into Wednesday. This will result in dry weather, and slightly cooler temperatures for the east coast with an onshore wind component. Lows tonight will range from the low 60s across interior areas to the lower 70s along the Atlantic coast. Highs tomorrow will range from the lower to mid 90s over southwest Florida to the lower 80s along the Atlantic beaches.
Weak upper Low will move across the southern half of Utah today and exit this evening while high pressure prevails across the north.
244 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure located just north of the region has allowed for sunny skies, light winds, dry air and more importantly, comfortable temps around 70 making for a pleasant day. Gusty northwest winds also look likely directly behind the low.
Temperatures, which were in the 40s today, should dip below freezing where skies remain clear to partly cloudy.
238 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A closed low was currently slowly moving east roughly along the 36th parallel. Instability will increase during the evening and overnight hours with cooler temperatures at mid levels moving overhead from the passing closed low. Although winds will most likely start out southeasterly this evening a quick change will come as a strengthening surface cyclone moves from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma on Wednesday. At the moment, guidance shows wind speeds just below advisory criteria with the highest speeds across the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle.
152 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A weak and mainly dry cold front will cross the forecast area this afternoon and early evening.
1221 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure over the northern Plains will move southeast into the mid Mississippi Valley today. The low level flow becomes nearly parallel to the thermal gradient by mid to late morning in our area, ending the cold advection by around noon.
108 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Showers will continue to plague the region with passage of a strong cold front this afternoon. An active weather pattern will maintain cooler weather and periodic precipitation chance for the rest of the week. Scattered rain and snow chance will continue in the wake of this afternoons cold front passage. High pressure will keep dry weather going for most of Wednesday.
The most likely scenario still appears to be a small cluster of storms coming off the high plains and tracking eastward across northern OK, with 1- 2 discrete elevated supercells south of it moving into portions of central OK late tonight.
Not too many changes with the next weather system that is expected to bring cooler, wet conditions by later Wednesday. A good concoction of above normal moisture levels, upper jet support and a post-cold frontal environment will bring soaking rains to much of the region except for the valleys of Lemhi County, between Drummond and Butte and portions of Lincoln County.
Weak cool front will drop in tonight from the Prairie Provinces while an upper ridge over Montana flattens with a system moving onshore into the Pacific NW. the arctic airmass over central and eastern Canada will nicely continue moving east so the cooler air will be Pacific in origin and not too tough to take.
A low amplitude upper level ridge is currently over Texas with a trough extending from a low over Nevada to the west coast. the upper low will move across the Four Corners region tonight and enter the Panhandle early Wednesday morning. A cold front will follow the dryline into our CWA Wednesday night.
Calm and clear weather will continue through Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area today into tomorrow. By Wendesday afternoon, the high will begin to shift east in response to the next trough over the Central US. Temperatures will be on the warmer side with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s both days. Lows will be nice with lows in the lower to mid 50s inland and near 60 at the coast.
345 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Scattered high clouds have periodically obscured an otherwise mostly clear sky this afternoon as high pressure nearly overhead has kept winds light and variable. This high will slide off to the east by this evening allowing for light southeasterly flow to become more dominant from the sfc to 850mb. The increasing low level moisture will increase cloud cover overnight keeping lows in the upper 60s along and south of the I-10 corridor and the lower 60's across central Louisiana and interior parts of southeast Texas.
221 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Latest surface map shows a warm front propagating across central North Dakota with breezy westerly winds. In doing so, a cold front will be push from north to south tonight resulting in a chance of showers northwest. It will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the 60s.
1225 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A mostly dry cold front will move across the region today followed by high pressure for Wednesday.
320 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 An upper level low will shift eastward out the the Southwest U.
Southwest toward Mankato and points west of there an 80 degree reading can't be ruled out, while northeast toward Ladysmith temperatures will only get into the lower 50s if the boundary winds up where expected per the RAP extension and CAM guidance.
High pressure over the Gulf and lower pressure over West Texas and North Central Mexico will keep the pressure gradient tight today, maintaining breezy southeast winds. /issued 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Low pressure swings through the Great Lakes today and a new low pressure system deepens across the southern Plains tomorrow. A cold front attempts a southern trek into Central Texas on Wednesday.
Then later in the day, trailing cold front is scheduled to move toward Interstate 80 by mid afternoon with low 50s dew points surging northward ahead of it.
Otherwise, a strong warm front extending from northwest to southeast across eastern sd was making a slow push to the east this afternoon. The upper pattern at the start of the period features an upstream ridge and downstream trough, with a northwest flow regime, though winds in the mid-levels are rather weak.
- Near Record cold possible tonight - Snow switching to a mixed band of precipitation on Wednesday - Below normal Temperatures into the weekend -- Gusty Winds this afternoon into early evening -- A Deep upper level low is sitting over Southern Canada this afternoon. -- Near Record cold possible tonight -- The 500mb low will move eastward as a weak ridge builds over the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this evening. As a weak ridge builds over the region tonight, the skies will clear and the winds will calm.
Only minor update was decreasing relative humidity values across the region, mainly in the lower elevations that will likely see gusty winds today.
Elevated convection above the low level cold pool is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move across SW Kansas this evening. A few storms will develop above the low level inversion and produce hail as large as half dollars. Highs Wednesday will be held down in the lower to mid 60s by cloud cover and precipitation in south central Kansas.
Based on both ridge placement overnight and inherent dryness of airmass in place will again hoist a combo of frost/freeze headlines. Wide ranging temps expected Wed aftn separated by warm frontal zone with mid 60s sw to upr 40s ne. Good overspread of rain expected south of US24 Thu within nrn reach of broad deformation zone north of OH river centered upper low yet tailing off with nwd extent into MI. Gusty winds today from 25 to 30 kts will decrease tonight as the low level jet moves away and mixing reduces with the sunset.
256 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A mid-level low pressure center was moving eastward, just south of the Arizona-Utah state line early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a vort-lobe ahead of the low lifted northward across the western San Juan Mountains during the early part of the day. Lift associated with this feature combined with difluent flow, divergence at jet level and instability all played a role in generating clouds and showers with a few embedded thunderstorms over the higher terrain along and south of a line extending from the Flat Tops westward to the Tavaputs Plateau. The low tracks quickly eastward along the southwestern Colorado border this evening then reorganizes over the Panhandle region late tonight. A low amplitude transitory ridge develops over the area Wednesday afternoon with relatively dry mid-level air sweeping into the region.
Temperatures have climbed into the low 60s to low 70s across the High Plains and upper 50s for the high terrain. The warmer temperatures have allowed humidity levels to drop into the teens for many areas but winds remain below red flag criteria at this time.
1157 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Midlevel ridging continues across the region today, with mild conditions expected again today.
707 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 High pressure located just north of the region has allowed for sunny skies, light winds, dry air and more importantly, comfortable temps around 70 making for a pleasant day. Gusty northwest winds also look likely directly behind the low.
/issued 238 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ A closed low was currently slowly moving east roughly along the 36th parallel. Instability will increase during the evening and overnight hours with cooler temperatures at mid levels moving overhead from the passing closed low. Although winds will most likely start out southeasterly this evening a quick change will come as a strengthening surface cyclone moves from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma on Wednesday. At the moment, guidance shows wind speeds just below advisory criteria with the highest speeds across the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle.
Regional VWP at KTLX / KFDR show a marked increase in the low level jet and renewed convection across TX Panhandle and north TX mark zones of increasing lift which will eventually spread eastward later tonight into Wed morning.
For sensible weather, closed upper low traversing the Colorado/New Mexico border(from west to east) tonight, will allow unsettled meteorological conditions to continue over the majority of the CWA well into this evening, with precipitation then focused primarily over the far southeastern Colorado plains until around sunrise Wednesday. Speaking of Wednesday, generally warmer and drier conditions (although isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible) are expected to grace southern Colorado as the storm system moves into eastern Kansas by sunset Wednesday.
706 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 An active weather pattern will maintain cooler weather and periodic precipitation chance for the rest of the week. High pressure will keep dry weather going for most of Wednesday.
Little to no precipitation accumulation is expected given very dry air in the low levels. Wednesday is forecast to be even warmer than today (Tuesday), as excellent mixing, sunshine, and a mild air mass all work together to maximize temperatures.
Temperatures will be around 5 degrees cooler, but still slightly above normal.
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will begin to subside some late this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
551 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2020 A mid-level low pressure center was moving eastward, just south of the Arizona-Utah state line early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a vort-lobe ahead of the low lifted northward across the western San Juan Mountains during the early part of the day. Lift associated with this feature combined with difluent flow, divergence at jet level and instability all played a role in generating clouds and showers with a few embedded thunderstorms over the higher terrain along and south of a line extending from the Flat Tops westward to the Tavaputs Plateau. The low tracks quickly eastward along the southwestern Colorado border this evening then reorganizes over the Panhandle region late tonight. A low amplitude transitory ridge develops over the area Wednesday afternoon with relatively dry mid-level air sweeping into the region.
Northerly winds tonight will turn to easterly on Wednesday as high pressure shifts east across the area.
Reimer Upper ridging will dominate the weather over the Northern Rockies through Wednesday with dry and warm conditions. For Wednesday night, a more vigorous upper air disturbance will track east/southeastward over the Northern Rockies and bring rain showers to the lower elevations and snow showers to the mountains above 7000 feet. 2 inches of rain for the lower elevations and 1 to 4 inches of snow in the mountains.
An upper level low will shift eastward out the the Southwest U.