Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE FLOW WAS SPLIT AROUND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NRN MEX/NM/AZ. AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE-BREAKING EVENT WAS UNDERWAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT E INTO THE MS VALLEY TOMORROW WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. DWPTS HAVE PLUMMETED OVER S-CNTRL NEB SINCE 15Z AND THIS LOW-LVL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC. BUT THE HIGH WILL BE VERY CLOSE TOWARD DAWN. FRI: SUNNY TO START AND COOLER. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
This should help keep low temperatures much warmer tonight, ranging from the low-mid 60s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.
941 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE. THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND (UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID 80S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
745 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HOT.
909 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015 CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FRI.
Widely scattered showers and a few storms have popped up along a cold front approaching from the northwest. Current MUCAPE values near 1000 J/kg across central Missouri are the highest expected, and given the trends of the mesoscale models, MUCAPE will only decrease with time. As a much cooler airmass continues to flow across southern Missouri tomorrow, afternoon highs may struggle to warm out of the 60s.
A Cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight and push southeast through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Friday morning.
SHOULD STILL SEE PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 60S INLAND.
633 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 Cold front approaching the western border of Illinois this afternoon and will be the main story in the short range as the eastern half of the CONUS is dominated by quasi zonal flow aloft. Overnight lows drop into the lower 50s for most areas NW of the Illinois River Valley. and areas south of I-70 staying warmer under more persistent cloud cover and a slower moving front in the early morning hours. By early Friday morning, the cold front will have progressed near I- 70. Cool high pressure will be arriving Friday afternoon behind the cold front. High temps on Friday will be about 15 deg cooler than Thurs, with readings mainly in the mid 60s.
800 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OK NEAR SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. /ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TONIGHT'S APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW.
1001 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON FRIDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
738 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
940 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MEXICO. ALLOWING THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM TO FLATTEN OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH DAY.
749 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER AREAS. THEREFORE KEPT LOWS A BIT WARMER OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND DID NOT GO TOO FAR EAST WITH FROST ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM BE A BIT LOWER TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN LOW TO MID 30S AS READINGS ARE UP NORTH ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S.
635 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 500 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S EVEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE AND DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF NW AL. FOR THOSE THAT LIKED THE WARMER WEATHER.
844 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015 DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST AS PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH CRESTS RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
622 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 The well-advertised cold front scooting through the region tonight has been showing a drier and drier trend with each of the various models and runs. Once the front and precip clears out overnight, a dry forecast is in store once again for the rest of the forecast period as a combination of UL ridging and NW flow aloft dominates the regional pattern.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS.
958 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT FEATURE SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES. STUCK WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST NAM/RAP SHOWS A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHERE QPF IS GENERATED. POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
/ISSUED 418 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO PROVIDING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND REGION AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOUR STATE REGION WAS UNDER A WEAKLYAMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH ALSO HAS HELPED PROVIDE VERY WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN WITH SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SADDEST WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE BAJA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SFC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WHICH WAS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES NE AND WEAKENS. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
754 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 The well-advertised cold front scooting through the region tonight has been showing a drier and drier trend with each of the various models and runs. Once the front and precip clears out overnight, a dry forecast is in store once again for the rest of the forecast period as a combination of UL ridging and NW flow aloft dominates the regional pattern.
THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ON FRIDAY THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION.
743 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
LTST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST NIGHT WITH PRESENCE OF AN INDUCED COASTAL TROUGH AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MARINE TO LAND INTERFACE.
Scattered mid and high clouds this evening will give way to broken/overcast mid clouds overnight as a cold front moves through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ Cold front southwest KS to northwest MO dropping south tonight in northwest upper flow. Quick warm up over the weekend as H5 ridge crest over eastern OK northwest AR.
/ISSUED 424 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016/ WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS QUICKLY AS THE STORM FRONT OF YESTERDAY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, SO WILL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK ATTEMPTS OF THE COOL AND WET SYSTEMS TO RIDE IN AGAINST THE WARM AND DRY RIDGE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE NOTHING WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO TRULY OVERCOME THE RIDGE UNTIL LATE IN THE TERM.
601 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 A warm front surged northward through southern Missouri overnight helping to keep temperatures in the 50s in most locations. A cold front will have shifted through the entire Ozarks Region by mid day Sunday. Cooler air will spread across the area limiting temperatures to the 50s and 60s on Sunday afternoon.
For tonight into Sunday a weak low will develop across the midwest and move across the lower Ohio Valley. This low looks to be over central Kentucky, centered along the Ohio River by sunrise on Sunday and then quickly move off to the east through the morning hours. Its associated cold front should be through the forecast area by mid afternoon. Precipitation will move in from the west across southern IN this evening along the warm front. Rain will increase through the overnight hours, particularly along and just north of the warm front, which will be positioned approximately along the I-64 corridor. Temperatures will be tricky on Sunday with the rain and the cold front moving through.
NEXT S/WV TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND IS ALREADY GENERATING THERMAL UPGLIDE RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WHICH ARE WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW IS THE LIKELY TYPE NORTH ALONG TO NORTH OF A STATIONARY COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS LOW WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WELL SATURATED AND SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW.
DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
620 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
319 AM PST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND KICK OFF A WARMING TREND.
WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION NOTED ABOVE ON THE KTBW SOUNDING. THE LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION OVERTOP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A GOOD SETUP FOR AREAS OF STRATUS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
Snow showers will continue for much of the higher terrain this morning, with occasional showers making it into the lower valleys.
653 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
306 AM PST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INLAND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Drier and warmer weather on tap this week as upper ridging becomes dominant synoptic feature over California.
643 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. A DEWPOINT GRADIENT BECOMES OBVIOUS WITH UPPER 40S AND SE SFC WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SWRLY SFC WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. CONCERNS WILL ARISE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO SPREAD NWWRD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND PERHAPS COME CLOSE TO OUR DOORSTEP /PER THE HRRR/ OR DRIFT IN ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES AOA DAYBREAK /PER THE NAM/. CERTAINLY MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN IN RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THE BETTER PART OF THE LAST WEEK. BUT TEMPS STILL SHOULD RUN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
/ISSUED 350 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016/ IT APPEARS WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN.
High pressure off the Florida East Coast will introduce a more southerly component to the low level flow today. Even under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s across the region today. It will continue to be several degrees cooler along the coast from Apalachee Bay westward to Panama City with onshore flow over cooler shelf waters.
902 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY. THEN MOVE NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY WHILE DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
516 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 A weak cold front will move through the forecast area later this afternoon and this evening and bring an end to our early Spring-like weather. Until then though, it looks like another day in the lower 70s, although today will be much less windy than the previous few days. So temperatures in the lower 70s again seem likely. The flow over the eastern two-thirds of the country becomes mostly zonal with deep ridge over the eastern Pacific and West Coast.
744 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY. THEN MOVE NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY WHILE DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
846 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2016 WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH AS TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER RAPIDLY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING. MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THIS EVENING.
636 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM MONTANA. NEXT S/WV TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND IS ALREADY GENERATING THERMAL UPGLIDE RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WHICH ARE WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW IS THE LIKELY TYPE NORTH ALONG TO NORTH OF A STATIONARY COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS LOW WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WELL SATURATED AND SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW.
424 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER SRN QUEBEC. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Confidence is on the low side with this set of TAFs.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BROUGHT WARMER AIR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THIS REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/VORT MAXES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ADVERTISED TO MAKE A MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING ANOTHER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/TX EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA BUILDS TO THE SE.
730 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BROUGHT WARMER AIR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THIS REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/VORT MAXES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ADVERTISED TO MAKE A MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING ANOTHER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/TX EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA BUILDS TO THE SE. MAINTAINED VCSH WORDING IN THE TAFS THROUGH 20-22Z GIVEN THE LOW PROB ATTM.
1014 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUING TO KEEP A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. /ISSUED 730 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 54 64 48 / 30 20 80 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 51 64 44 / 20 30 80 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 54 63 45 / 20 30 80 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 49 61 38 / 20 20 90 60.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE TODAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY.
518 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY. THEN MOVE NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY WHILE DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
643 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM ERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WHICH WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SINK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, but still remaining in the lower to mid 90s.
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE VALLEY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 68 86 69 / 30 40 60 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 67 82 66 / 20 40 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 67 82 67 / 30 40 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 64 82 63 / 20 40 60 60.
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP JUST INLAND. CONTINUED DRY BUT WARMER TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN ILX THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NWRLY FLOW/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NE, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COOLER MID LEVELS. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOST OF THE DAY.
ONE FROM THE LOWER KEYS EXTENDING BEYOND 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE THE TAIL END EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE KEYS AREA WHICH IS THE CATALYST FOR THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY.
1233 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
1208 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH AREAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 80S.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WILL SEE THE REGION SKIRTED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH.
WENT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
620 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 21Z TODAY TO 03Z TUESDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT: RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER GUIDANCE. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE. WITH WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AOA 500MB ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER.
/ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/ TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.