Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures continue to creep warmer into the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. High pressure shifts to the southeast and places us in the southerly return flow. The tightening pressure gradient out ahead of cold front approaching from the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains along with continued WAA in a southwesterly flow will result in moisture advection ahead of the incoming frontal boundary.
With the lower dew points, temperatures will be able to rebound into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees this afternoon. A weak trough will be moving through the central plains today and will be situated over the Ozarks by tomorrow morning. With the weak lift from the trough along with the increased moisture, isolated to scattered storm chances will return Friday afternoon.
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week. Some low temperatures from around the area, particularly along and west of the Blue Ridge have dropped into the upper 50s. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80s along and east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 70s for areas west.
High pressure remains located across central Illinois early this morning and will slowly translate east today.
A strong ridge building through the Great Basin and portions of the desert southwest will continue to keep temperatures 1 to 4 degrees above climo over the next several days. The strong and deep easterly and northeasterly flow around the high is a signal to keep an eye on potential organized outflow off the Mogollon Rim, pushing west and southwest into lower elevations.
Rain chances in these areas are the highest at 60-70pct. Favorable boating conditions expected today across the local waters as the Atlantic ridge axis remains in place over the central to north-central FL peninsula.
504 AM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will be responsible for a warm and dry pattern for the next several days. This shift will not cause any major changes although high may come a few degrees being closer to the thermal ridge. Labor Day weekend, long recognized as the close of summer, will feel more like deep summer this weekend with a ridge of high pressure camped out over the Great Basin.
530 AM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 08z surface analysis had weak high over the eastern Dakotas and trough from eastern MT into central WY. Low level thermal ridge peaks over the CWA supporting highs well into the 90s on the plains with a smattering of 100F readings east of the Black Hills. Suspect a couple of stray -TSRA may develop in/near the higher terrain over northeast WY into southwest SD, so have introduced pops to account.
Ensemble guidance is in strong agreement that the ridge of high pressure settled over the Western US will continue building west over California today. Daytime temperatures today are forecast to be roughly 3-10 degrees warmer than yesterday with Valley temperatures 100-108 degrees, foothill temperatures 95-103 degrees, and mountain temperatures 75-98 degrees. Ensembles indicate a weak trough moving through the PacNW and grazing northern California will push the high pressure axis east over the Great Basin region on Friday.
/JNE/ A cold front draped across our CWA will continue to push slowly across the region today filtering drier air behind it suppressing most rain chances. Outside of that, a pleasant day shall prevail! Mostly clear skies can be expected today and tonight with highs in the lower 90s and lows falling into the upper 60s across the northwest and low 70s elsewhere.
A broad, high-amplitude ridge of high pressure sits over the western U. this afternoon, the same ridge responsible for recent record-breaking heat across the Northern Rockies. The ridge will remain in place with little perturbation through Friday.
High pressure will remain overhead through the day today but with upper-level flow remaining mostly zonal, temperatures will be rather similar to yesterday if not slightly more humid and warm. Once the high shifts off the eastern seaboard, increased southwesterly flow will usher in the warmest temperatures and moisture in the short-term. The latest model data continues to support the idea of a large trough of low pressure aloft moving across the eastern third of the CONUS in the extended. As this trough moves through, we should see a slow moving cold front push into the area from the north over the weekend.
1141 AM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will be responsible for a warm and dry pattern for the next several days. This shift will not cause any major changes although high may come a few degrees being closer to the thermal ridge. Labor Day weekend, long recognized as the close of summer, will feel more like deep summer this weekend with a ridge of high pressure camped out over the Great Basin.
Subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge of high pressure directly overhead, and dry air wrapping southward around an easterly wave disturbance over GA/FL today have lowered PWAT values across most of our area to below 1. /NF/ Prior discussion below: A cold front draped across our CWA will continue to push slowly across the region today filtering drier air behind it suppressing most rain chances. Outside of that, a pleasant day shall prevail! Mostly clear skies can be expected today and tonight with highs in the lower 90s and lows falling into the upper 60s across the northwest and low 70s elsewhere.
314 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Full sunshine today (outside of limited cloud development at press time) has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. As the upper level low/trough moves into Quebec the deep moisture axis (PW values >1.
This directional shift is a result of the ridge over the mainland Florida continuing to gradually build back into play. This weekend, an upper level trough is set to move from the Bahamas into Cuba promoting the enrichment of any convection that finds previous lift. The Atlantic ridge will strengthen to its peak, bringing a brief wind surge across our CWA.
122 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week. Will see high pressure move from the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast through Friday. Upper energy resides over the lower Missouri Valley and a weakness aloft over southern Georgia, so showers should be well south of us tomorrow afternoon. As high pressure departs further offshore on Friday night, the tranquil weather from the past couple days will come to an end. This increasing upslope flow will allow moisture convergence across the Blue Ridge.
As the aforementioned trough edges SE through the rest of today, increasing subsidence and markedly drier northerly flow from H7-H5 should serve to shut down convection from NW-SE with little/no precip expected by sunset. Friday sees increasingly anticyclonic flow aloft SE of a broadening upper high over the Great Basin.
1048 AM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 08z surface analysis had weak high over the eastern Dakotas and trough from eastern MT into central WY. Low level thermal ridge peaks over the CWA supporting highs well into the 90s on the plains with a smattering of 100F readings east of the Black Hills. Suspect a couple of stray -TSRA may develop in/near the higher terrain over northeast WY into southwest SD, so have introduced pops to account.
1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure over the region is slowly moving east, which will result in increasingly southerly flow through the day today. This will come into play tomorrow as an upper level trough moves into the area from the Plains. The upper level trough, currently in the Central Plains, will elongate as it travels east. By Friday, the trough will reach the Mid-Mississippi Valley, providing weak forcing and cold air aloft.
Dry otherwise with lows generally in the low to mid 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s. Gradual warming trend will continue to end the week as high pressure shifts off to the east and light southerly flow develops in advance of a broad upper trough.
An upper low will move over the area this evening into Friday.
1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (The rest of today ) Upper low currently moving across TX/OK Panhandle region continues to draw ample moisture northward this morning. All of this along with observed trends necessitates raising POPs over most of the area through the evening as the low slowly moves east. Extensive clouds and increasing precip should also result in cooler temps today, albeit with high humidity.
Still a warm and humid day on Fri with the cold frontal passage approaching from the north for late Fri nt.
As an upper low weakens over northern Mexico, another upper-level trough will dip into central Texas this evening. Tomorrow, the upper-level trough axis will be right overhead, while the highest CAPE values will be sitting right between Abilene and San Angelo.
222 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 - Scattered storms Friday, a few could be briefly strong - Great weather for the holiday weekend Quiet weather continues tonight and into Friday morning ahead of a weak cold front that will sweep through the area Friday afternoon. For tonight, southerly surface winds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer than the past two nights with lows in the middle to upper 60s, and possibly not dropping out of the lower 70s across parts of the Twin Cities metro. The highest chances appear to be from southeastern MN into west central WI during the 7 pm to 11 pm timeframe.
210 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will bring dry weather through Friday. A warmer air mass however will quickly return with highs crossing the 80 degree mark for all but higher terrain.
High pressure is sliding off to the east as a trough is developing in the Plains. By Friday, the trough will be over the mid MS River Valley, and allow for southerly flow to bring heat and moisture back to the region.
A mid/upper level low will ride the surface boundary this afternoon, providing enough lift which will combine with diurnally driven instability to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across mainly central Georgia through this evening and once again on Friday.
224 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will strengthen tonight as the center proceeds from the upper Ohio Valley to New England, but continues to ridge southwestward to the Tennessee Valley. In our position behind the center of the high and with cirrus streaming overhead, tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night. A broad 5H trough will be approaching from the west and a small speed max will eject from the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley.
Some showers have begun to pop up behind the cold front and will continue to drift across the region.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating broad ridging sliding along and south of the area toward the mid MS RVR Valley and OH RVR Valley regions, while weak troffiness undulated from acrs southwest KS, northwest IA, and to east central MN. Convergent west-southwesterly 15-25 KT LLJ/warm air advection(WAA) wing to lee of the short wave trof had developed isolated elevated showers and a few storms acrs central IA, with associated ACCAS and higher debris clouds bleeding into the western to souther DVN CWA. Then the rest of the day warm sector-like with south to southwesterly sfc winds and warm thermal profiles boosting temps into the mid to upper 80s acrs most of the area, depending on extent of debris clouds from the west as the upper trof moves acrs western into south central IA thru evening.
Locally, dew points remain in the low to mid 60s as dry air settles into the region. High clouds will disrupt our cooling potential tonight and should keep fog to a minimum with the lower dew points. Broad upper ridge lingers just offshore, while high pressure over New England slides off to the east. With the area on the backside of the clockwise flow, expecting an increase in moisture in the low- to mid-levels from southeasterly flow.
High pressure to our north will provide mainly onshore winds and seasonable temperatures.
145 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 A weakening cold front will move through the region today then will stall south of the area. Due to the continuing influence of a mid/upper low, the cold front, the sea breeze and deeper moisture, showers/thunderstorms should become most numerous across southern counties today, especially this afternoon into this evening. Outside any showers/thunderstorms, temperatures in the middle/upper 80s and maximum heat index values in the lower to middle 90s will be common. However, as the upper low drifts north, at least scattered showers/thunderstorms could persist through the night across central/southern counties, and guidance suggests that deeper moisture and the associated chance for showers/thunderstorms will gradually spread north into the forecast area overnight. Otherwise, expect low temperatures to range from the lower 70s well inland to close to 80F on the coast.
With the increase in clouds and higher humidity levels, somewhat warmer conditions are forecast tonight.
Convection continues to expand eastward ahead of mid level trough axis and preceding mid level vort max. (Tomorrow through Thursday) The aforementioned trough axis will continue a slow eastward progression Friday with widespread showers and scattered storms across far E OK and NW AR.
251 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Key Points: - Another warm day today with temperatures reaching the low 90s. - A weak cold front will move through the area Friday evening and bring chances for rain and thunderstorms. Another upper-level ridge in central Canada was noted moving southeast towards the Great Lakes region. By Friday, the aforementioned upper-low in Canada will bring a trough axis into the central Plains by Friday evening and usher in a weak cold front in the evening. Moisture advection ahead of the frontal boundary will be noticeable as dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees as high temperatures reach the low 90s again.
(This evening through Friday) In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. A trough will move into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Eastern U. Showers and storms may be more scattered south of I-40 where the highest dew points are expected. A weak upper trough will continue to slowly move east as the weekend progresses.
147 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Dry weather through tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. We are expecting mostly clear and calm conditions again tonight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern. Lows may be a few degrees warmer than last night, but still expecting most places to get down into the 50s, with some 40s possible in the high valleys and ridgetops in the NE part of the CWA. As high pressure begins to shift off to the east tomorrow, winds will remain light but turn SE-S'ly, allowing warmer air and gradually increasing humidity into the area. The high pressure and upper ridging should remain close enough to the area tomorrow to help suppress any precip chances to our south and west.
1225 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will give way to increasing precipitation chances and above average temperature through the weekend ahead of the next low pressure system. High pressure and slow ridge building aloft will create dry weather and slightly above average temperature today, with a few afternoon fair weather cumulus. Warm advection will be late to initiate during the overnight period as high pressure slides east.
A broad upper level ridge of high pressure continues to extend across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and eastward across the Carolinas/western Atlantic early this afternoon, while a weakness in the ridge/weak upper level low was located over the vicinity of northern FL/southern GA. Temperatures look on track to reach the lower to mid 90s over inland portions of the forecast area and around 90 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. Maximum heat indices could reach up to around 105 degrees over the western FL panhandle this afternoon given the high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
For tonight into Friday morning, a number of the latest CAMs develop a few showers and perhaps a weak storm (HREF mean MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg) across northeastern SD and west central MN tonight into Friday morning, in response to an incoming cold front. The cold front will track across the CWA from northwest to southeast through the morning. Opted against a fire weather headline at this time, as the strongest winds are offset from the lowest RH in terms of timing. High pressure builds in Friday evening, leading to lessening winds, clear skies and relatively cool overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper ridging will dominate the pattern over the holiday weekend and into the upcoming work week.
Despite plenty of mid and high clouds streaming over the area, we have already climbed to the lower to mid 80s as of 1 PM, and will likely top out in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s are widespread, keeping us from feeling too hot and humid out there. Cloud cover should increase tonight, as a weak upper trof north of the cut off low moves toward the region. The cloud cover will be helping keep our overnight temperatures quite a bit warmer tonight, with mid to upper 60s lows anticipated, as winds don't quite get calm overnight under the clouds.
236 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Upper level ridging will build northward across the Rockies through Friday. A cold front will surge southward through the area Friday as this occurs.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Rich sly flow in the 7h-5h layer, e of the mid-level low, will hold rich/deep mstr in place as the mid-level trof extends newd from nrn MX thru the PB. The nrn extent of the mid-level theta-e ridge axis will generally be along I-20 where flow aloft is weakest. Into Fri PM the aforementioned theta-e ridge will sag swd some, but still very mst conditions will remain across the Trans Pecos where/when the Davis Mtns and vicinity are targeted for heavy rain.
309 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 The first day of meteorological fall has been met with quite pleasant conditions, but the lower humidity and dry weather begins to wrap up today. A warm front in south Mississippi will begin lifting north tonight, increasing humidity, temperatures, and rain chances across the Mid-South starting tomorrow.
18z surface map indicated high pressure pushing just east of the area, with south to southwest winds developing on the back side of the ridge. Aloft, an upper level trough was located over the central Plains associated with scattered showers/storms, and cirrus east of this feature was spilling into the area. Quiet, status-quo weather continues overnight and Friday as the high pushes farther east, and the upper low slowly drifts across MO. The stronger upper level jet is displaced well north over Canada this weekend, forcing the weak upper low to wobble northeast in light flow aloft.
154 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Dry weather through tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. We are expecting mostly clear and calm conditions again tonight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern. Lows may be a few degrees warmer than last night, but still expecting most places to get down into the 50s, with some 40s possible in the high valleys and ridgetops in the NE part of the CWA. As high pressure begins to shift off to the east tomorrow, winds will remain light but turn SE-S'ly, allowing warmer air and gradually increasing humidity into the area. The high pressure and upper ridging should remain close enough to the area tomorrow to help suppress any precip chances to our south and west.
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will extend across the region today. The high will then move east of the area tonight into Friday. This moisture will interact with a weak mid level trough to bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm will present itself overnight as flow turns southerly, dewpoints linger in the mid 60s, and an upper trough to the west has energy translate through the southwest flow ahead of it in our area. The start of the period features a weak 500mb trough moving through the Ohio Valley, with the more robust trough base rounding through Ontario into Quebec.
For tonight into Friday morning, a number of the latest CAMs develop a few showers and perhaps a weak storm (HREF mean MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg) across northeastern SD and west central MN tonight into Friday morning, in response to an incoming cold front. The cold front will track across the CWA from northwest to southeast through the morning. Opted against a fire weather headline at this time, as the strongest winds are offset from the lowest RH. High pressure builds in Friday evening, leading to lessening winds, clear skies and relatively cool overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper ridging will dominate the pattern over the holiday weekend and into the upcoming work week.
Another mild day is anticipated on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
(The rest of today ) Upper low currently moving across TX/OK Panhandle region continues to draw ample moisture northward this morning. All of this along with observed trends necessitates raising POPs over most of the area through the evening as the low slowly moves east. Extensive clouds and increasing precip should also result in cooler temps today, albeit with high humidity.
The next weather focus will come Friday evening as the tail-end of a weak cold front associated with an upper trough located well to the north over central Ontario approaches the CWA.
An upper trough will be over the region this afternoon and evening. This trough has led to added cloud cover over the I10 corridor up into SE GA. Outside of this cloud shield though, this trough has added to area instability this afternoon. With instability increased Today due to the upper trough, isolated strong to severe storms are also anticipated.
246 PM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Upper ridging continues across the western CONUS, centered across the Great Basin. A weak cold front will push through tonight, bringing cooler temps the next two days, but still above seasonal averages.
(This afternoon through Friday night) A breakdown in the upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This same general upper pattern will continue through Friday with an upper ridge building over the western part of the country. Temperatures will likely warm up some on Friday with highs mostly in the 80s with 70s across most of the higher terrain.
The positive side of the rainfall and cloudy conditions returning is that the temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal over the weekend.
237 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Main question for the period is if we will see any precip reaching the ground tonight as the cold front passes through. Even more quiet for tomorrow into tomorrow night, as the cold front pushes the rest of the way through the CWA and high pressure builds in behind it. Dew points will be lower tomorrow but temps also cooler, although still seasonable in the 70s. Minimal impacts this weekend and into the coming work week, thanks to a ridge set firmly to our west. A stacked ridge is firmly planted to our west, leaving us with northwesterly flow. If RH can drop a bit more into the low 30s and upper 20 percents, we could see some near- critical fire weather conditions.
1234 PM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Disturbance moving west to east well north of the Canadian border will drag a weak trof and a surface cold front through the region late this afternoon into this evening. Cooler air will build in behind the front overnight bringing a cooler but dry day on Friday. Temperatures Friday afternoon will be around 90 in most locations, a bit cooler for SE Montana, which is around 10 degrees cooler than today but still 10 degrees above normal for early September.