Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Large scale mid tropospheric pattern features a close low out near the UT/WY/CO border area, a ridge from MT up into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with troughs off the west coast of the US and over the Great Lakes. That closed low should open up the next 24 hours while the trough farther west builds east into the Rockies. Surface analysis early this morning showed a cold front extending from southern WI across northern IA and then back to western SD. That front should sag southward this morning, but as high pressure at the surface over the Dakotas moves east, our winds will turn to the east by evening. Today, will have highs ranging from the lower 70s in the northern part of the forecast area to upper 70s south.
Pacific cold front already onshore in Oregon as of 8 AM MDT. Cooler and windy from the west/northwest Saturday; no changes there. Cold front moves through KBKE/KBNO after 30/03Z, through KBOI around 30/12Z and through KTWF/KJER around 30/18Z. Warm and dry conditions expected today under the exiting influence of high pressure. An approaching area of low pressure will push a cold front through the forecast area starting tonight and continuing into Saturday afternoon. After seeing temperatures pushing 80 degrees today, cooler temperatures expected Saturday with the frontal passage.
652 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Strong upper-level wave pushing through the western Great Lakes early this morning, and high pressure building into the eastern Plains behind the system will continue to suppress a backdoor frontal boundary southward past the Missouri River valley before daybreak. The wave will lift northeast across Wyoming, lowering pressures in the high plains through tonight and increasing southeasterly winds especially west of the James River.
The area can expect a drier and cooler weekend with lowering temperatures (especially overnight lows) closer to normal late September and early October readings.
622 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 The cold front is out of the state of AL and cooler temps are really lagging behind. Today, a trough will swing through the Great Lakes and a reinforcing front will move into the region, finally allowing us to feel that cooler air. These cooler temps are actually seasonable values for this time of year, but for those that are tired of those summertime temps, we will welcome it. Expect breezy northeasterly winds keeping highs in the lower 80s under mostly clear skies.
1240 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Hydro A cold front will progress south through the area today bringing with it a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Best chances for precipitation will come this morning along and ahead of the cold front. The cold front stretches from Northern Lower Michigan to Southern Wisconsin at 07z. Otherwise, high pressure will be sprawled across the area this weekend bringing dry weather.
The current forecast is on track for the afternoon with a few clouds around eastern sections of the forecast area into the higher terrain along the North Carolina border. The clouds and even a sprinkle or two will be around in this area which is in the vicinity of an inverted trough extending northeast out of Northern Georgia. Cooler temperature forecast with highs mainly in the 70s looks good for today.
/Issued 520 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ The upper level low pressure system currently near southwest Wyoming will continue moving slowly north northeast towards the northern plains states by Saturday. This will result in a continued threat for showers today and tonight, and then a slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night as the atmosphere becomes slightly more unstable due to expected warmer max temperatures.
A quasi-stationary cold front will remain just north of the Altamaha river basin today. A coastal trough/tropical wave along the east coast of the Florida peninsula will approach from the south this afternoon. The tropical wave/coastal trough will lift up the Florida peninsula into our area tonight.
High pressure will move out of Canada and across the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. As the cooler and dry air extends down into Mid TN, we will have near normal temperatures with clear to partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge will build across the region. The Euro breaks down the ridge with a cool shot by Friday while the GFS keep the big ridge going into the following weekend. It seems the powerful ridge will be hard to break down as quickly as the Euro indicates, so we are leaning toward continuing warm wx on through at least Oct 7th.
A weak low level inverted trough can be seen in the radar loops over West Central TX drifting west with enhanced shower activity extending SE of this shear zone over the I-35 corridor.
1021 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Persistent high pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Friday.
GOES IR showed scattered cirrus spilling over and upper ridge that extended from TX through the lower MS River valley. /issued 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South through Friday as an upper ridge of high pressure remains over the area.
Synoptically, the front that was stalled to our south is now lifting northward as a warm front, which was located along the NE/KS border at 20z. Meanwhile, another short wave ejecting from the mean trough across the Rockies should bring another round of heavier convection across the southern CWA, which is coincidentally aligned with the existing flood watch. The warm front continues to lift north Friday morning, and eventually stalls, before redefining itself as a cold front as the upper trough moves off the front range.
747 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Persistent high pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Friday.
At this time a widespread frost is not expected in these areas, but some low spots could drop close to freezing mark during the pre dawn hours. However, if these clouds move out sooner, temperatures could potentially drop closer to freezing.
Upper level low across southern Idaho will continue to track east through Friday. High pressure remains over the region tonight, slowly moving east-southeast towards the Great Lakes as the low washes out within a large mid level trough off to our west and a S/WV ridge forms over the Dakotas. Winds will be light and the sky should be clear to partly cloudy which will lead to overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Mid level trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight will eject east across the Great Plains Friday.
A low pressure trough will move east through the dakotas to near the MN/SD-ND border by Friday evening. Ahead of the low, a warm front will move north into the forecast region by Friday. Somewhat warmer and moist air will push into the region along with increased instability.
Will continue to see these clouds push east into the evening, but later through the overnight hours, clouds will once again move into the region ahead of the next area of low pressure. Warmer readings into the 40s expected further south where clouds will initially affect the CWA later tonight. The extended is a tale of two troughs. Then there will be a brief break over the weekend when the flow shifts to southwesterly and draws up warmer and drier air.
This band will shift southeast tonight as a cold front moves through the region. On Friday, the 850 mb moisture transport will be rapidly increasing ahead of the short wave trough and low lifting northeast out of the Central Plains.
Should also see our heights rise slightly, as high pressure off to our east attempts to push in.
Precipitation currently moving into northern MO developed over- night in the TX/OK panhandles and have been lifting north and expanding with the 925 hPa LLJ, along and north of a northward moving surface warm front.
/issued 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ Despite copious low level moisture an upper level ridge of high pressure centered across central Texas will keep most of the forecast area dry tonight. These areas will be on the periphery of the upper high where a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the residual low level moisture. A large upper level low pressure area centered across the rockies will move across the central plains Friday. Low level thermal ridging will develop in this pattern allowing high temperatures to rise to much above normal values. The associated surface cold front will move through the forecast area Friday night. The combination of forcing with the front and upper trough could ignite thunderstorms across the northern and eastern Permian Basin Friday night.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: An elongated upper trough overhead will slowly lift out to the east tonight through Friday.
Forcing remains fairly weak so think that this activity will remain fairly light and unorganized with the inverted trough expected to weaken and shift south.
1032 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
Temperatures are falling into the low 30s across northern North Dakota already. Upper level low across southern Idaho will continue to track east through Friday. High pressure remains over the region tonight, slowly moving east-southeast towards the Great Lakes as the low washes out within a large mid level trough off to our west and a S/WV ridge forms over the Dakotas. Winds will be light and the sky should be clear to partly cloudy which will lead to overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Mid level trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight will eject east across the Great Plains Friday.
An upper low will shift east across northern Utah tonight through early Friday.
/issued 311 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ UL ridging dominated across the Four-State Region today, resulting in partly cloudy skies/cu deck, light east-southeast sfc flow and daytime temps in the middle to upper 80s per 20Z metars.
On Friday, a more significant mid/upper trough will move into the Rockies late in the day before emerging over the central plains on Friday night. Some pretty big phase/amplitude differences remain between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to the central CONUS mid/upper trough impacting the Rockies and plains states early in the period.
944 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Aside from some cirrus, which has shown signs of thinning the last couple of hours over SW AR/Ncntrl LA per the GOES 16 imagery, a mostly clear sky is expected tonight, with sfc ridging extending from the mid-Atlantic region SW through the TN Valley into Ecntrl TX. This will maintain a relatively dry air mass and light winds in place overnight, with pleasant conditions expected as temps fall into the lower to mid 60s. Could see some AC/cirrus increase after 06Z across extreme SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR as the upper level ridging centered from Cntrl TX NE into the Lower MS Valley begins to flatten late, but otherwise, a mostly clear sky is expected overnight through much of Friday morning until a sct cu field develops around midday.
Guidance for low temps this morning were too high where it was clear last night, so will stay on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight. There is always a lot of temp variability under these conditions, with in town/city temps often warmer than the rural surroundings. Temps near lakes/rivers can also be warmer. Looks like some clouds will move back into the far southern FA late tonight, which should keep those areas a little warmer.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday, mostly from the Mogollon Rim northward as a dry cold front pushes into northern Arizona on Friday morning.
Upper level low, over south central idaho will shift to the east into eastern Idaho late this evening. Upper level ridge begins to move inland over the region on Friday for warm temperatures and drier conditions. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s to low 70s Friday afternoon in the lower valleys.
1024 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
711 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The warm front is now over northern Missouri and central Illinois moving slowly northward with just isolated showers over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois.
629 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 VFR conditions will continue at all area airports through the evening under high pressure. Dry and warm weather conditions are expected tonight through Friday evening as an upper level ridge dominates the area.
/issued 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ Aside from some cirrus, which has shown signs of thinning the last couple of hours over SW AR/Ncntrl LA per the GOES 16 imagery, a mostly clear sky is expected tonight, with sfc ridging extending from the mid-Atlantic region SW through the TN Valley into Ecntrl TX. This will maintain a relatively dry air mass and light winds in place overnight, with pleasant conditions expected as temps fall into the lower to mid 60s. Could see some AC/cirrus increase after 06Z across extreme SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR as the upper level ridging centered from Cntrl TX NE into the Lower MS Valley begins to flatten late, but otherwise, a mostly clear sky is expected overnight through much of Friday morning until a sct cu field develops around midday.
/issued 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South through Friday as an upper ridge of high pressure remains over the area.
937 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 After mostly dry weather, overnight into early Friday, a passing warm front, will bring widely separated showers Friday afternoon and evening.
537 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Large upper low sits across the northern Rockies with ridging over SW to central Canada. Upper low will slide eastward tonight into the Dakotas.
Tucson was able to avoid hitting 100 degrees as the high topped out at 99, while Douglas tied their daily high temperature record by reaching 94 degrees. Thus, Friday will bring dry and clear conditions with temperatures several degrees cooler than today.
More recently, scattered showers are pulling away from the Lower Keys and another batch of showers are lifting through the Straits of Florida. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s, and overall, winds are diminishing slowly across the eastern two-thirds of the Keys service area, and still fresh to strong westward. KBYX VWP has shown that the lowest level winds have diminished recently though. Kept the high probability of measurable rain based on the airmass in place and the activity currently lifting through the Straits. In general, winds and seas will slowly but steadily subside over the next couple of periods as the trough works westward from the Keys service area.
Areas across southcentral Missouri have had more sunshine and warmer temps. If clouds clear out more than forecast then highs would need to be raised however currently highs in the lower 80s look reasonable with increasing south winds.
Temps were in the low to mid 70s across CWA, except 77-81F along highway 50. Mild lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
Seas and winds will start to decrease tonight as high pressure moves off to the Northeast, with Small Craft Advisory expected to expire Friday morning.
The 12Z guidance indicates that the entire region should be firmly in the warm sector tonight and Friday, as a short wave trough aloft deepens over the Rockies. Any lingering ridging (subsidence and warming) over the WFO PAH forecast area will dissipate between 9z-12z (4-7 am CDT) Friday.
1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Persistent high pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Friday.
/26/ Tonight and Friday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain the ongoing quiet weather across the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Otherwise, highs will again be warmer than normal as they top out in the upper 80s.
615 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The 12Z guidance indicates that the entire region should be firmly in the warm sector tonight and Friday, as a short wave trough aloft deepens over the Rockies. Any lingering ridging (subsidence and warming) over the WFO PAH forecast area will dissipate between 9z-12z (4-7 am CDT) Friday.
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The 12Z guidance indicates that the entire region should be firmly in the warm sector tonight and Friday, as a short wave trough aloft deepens over the Rockies. Any lingering ridging (subsidence and warming) over the WFO PAH forecast area will dissipate between 9z-12z (4-7 am CDT) Friday.
630 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure continues over Arkansas.
736 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak front will remain to our north through Friday before pushing north as a warm front this weekend.
High pressure and mostly clear skies will remain through the night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 85 65 82 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 85 61 82 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 85 61 82 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 84 56 81 / 0 0 10 10.
318 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2017 Record temperatures in the deserts and above normal temperatures inland are forecast into Friday as the high will weaken.
Another cooler than normal night with efficient radiational cooling is occurring across South Central Texas as skies remain clear with light and variable winds. Dew points are in the 30s across most of the region and most areas aside from a few lower-lying areas with drainage flows should stay above freezing this morning. High temperatures should climb into the lower 80s ahead mainly south of Interstate 10 and Highway 90 which should stay ahead of the front until after peak daytime heating. Compressional warming ahead of and along the front should not be as large tomorrow as it has with other recent frontal passages because winds should back to the northeast without a pre-frontal trough for most areas except our western counties.
Ridge of high pressure across the southern Appalachains with dry west to northwest flow aloft will keep the weather tranquil across the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 43 61 38 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 42 59 36 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 42 59 36 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 36 57 33 / 0 0 10 10.
/17/ Today through Tonight: Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed the region under northwest flow aloft with the upper trough tracking east of the forecast area. For today into tonight an upper trough axis which will be associated with a cold front will approach the region from the north. This will be associated with an upper jet pushing into the Southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley. Under some high clouds highs will be from the lower to middle 60s. Lows will moderate under the cloud cover with readings in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 60's with some areas topping 70 before cooler air begins to filter into the region.
652 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure will bring sunny skies and mild temperatures to the region today. A cold front will bring some light rain showers on Saturday.
At the surface, low pressure developing off the Northeast Florida coast will pull dry air into the region at lower levels, while clouds associated with the low remain well to the east.
Slightly stronger low level return flow will develop west of the MS River, ahead of low amplitude midlevel trof. The aforementioned midlevel trof and associated surface cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday.
708 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Update A breezy day is in store with sunshine and highs in the 50s, before a cold front brings clouds and a few light rain showers or drizzle tonight and Saturday.
956 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure passes to the south through this evening, then weakens later tonight into Saturday as offshore low pressure passes well to the southeast. A cold front will move through Saturday night.
SSW winds increasing to 15-20 mph will gust 25-35 mph by afternoon, with 1020 mb high pressure over the Southeast States and strong 987 mb low pressure over west central Ontario tracking toward the southern tip of James Bay Canada by sunset. As the low pressure moves into northern Quebec tonight, it will sweep a cold front se through IL tonight. High pressure to settle into the central plains on Saturday while upper level trof shifts east of IL, into the central Great Lakes and eastern Ohio river valley by sunset Sat. After a period of clouds with cold front tonight, expect return of mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Cooler highs of 50-55F with coolest readings from I-74 ne. Lows Sat night mostly in the lower 30s, with a few upper 20s northern CWA.
541 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Soggy conditions are in store for today, with cooler temperatures for Saturday. A wintry mix will be possible when the colder air behind the cold front finally arrives later this evening, in the form of a drizzle/freezing drizzle/rain/snow mix. Also, some gusty west to northwest winds are expected today, mainly over northeast Minnesota, as the cold front passes through. Cooler temperatures will return tonight and Saturday as cold air advection increases once the cold front passes through. There could be some slick roads tonight due to refreezing, especially over the north, this evening as there should be a chance of freezing drizzle possible. A mostly dry day for Saturday, with cooler temperatures as highs are forecast to range from the lower 20s over the tip of the Arrowhead to the lower 30s over the southwest.
Colder temperatures in the 30s along to north of the trough. Much cooler and seasonal tonight behind todays CAA as winds taper off, the sky clears, and a cooler airmass moves into the area.
The highest wind speeds will be in East Texas, including KTYR and KGGG. This will push temperatures some 6-8 degrees warmer compared to yesterday for afternoon highs so expect most areas to top out near the 70 degree mark with very pleasant conditions expected after we get through the morning chill. The warming trend continues through Saturday as well with lower to mid 70s expected by afternoon as our next cold front begins moving into our NW zones and quickly spills south through the remainder of the region Saturday night.
With the main storm track residing well north of the area, across southern Canada, a potent area of low pressure will be driven eastward today across Ontario. As this occurs, an associated surface frontal trough will shift eastward across the Upper Midwest towards the western Great Lakes later today into this evening. Ahead of this approaching cold frontal trough southwesterly winds are expected to increase and become gusty up to 35 mph during the day. This in return will advect a lower- level thermal ridge (featuring 925 mb temperatures up around 12-13C) east-northeastward across the region through the day. KJB 147 AM CST Following the passage of the cold front tonight, cooler conditions are expected for Saturday.
Late tonight a cold front will pass through the region bringing shallow low level moisture. Low temps should hold in the lower 40s tonight.
Strong high pressure will be parked over Arizona through the holiday weekend with clear and dry weather.
At this point it appears there is a southward shift to most of the echoes, which would take them mainly along and south of the highway 2 corridor. This low will continue to track eastward this morning, with the pressure gradient tightening behind it. Tonight will be cooler and wind speeds will decrease.
A surface cold front is showing itself now moving into eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Those westerly winds will give way to northwest winds gusting to around 35 mph this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. This is due to the upper level trough passage but also a nosing strong H250 jet into that area.
It might even be a few degrees warmer than this with all locations reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front moves through tomorrow but will be dry.
High pressure stretched from southern Texas through the Delmarva Peninsula remains in control of Central Alabama weather today and tonight. We will see that high pressure bubble begin to slide off to the east and shrink in overall size during the afternoon and evening hours. With that said we will still have high pressure over the region by Saturday morning as a cold front will be to our northwest.