Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROF WHICH EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH IS ALSO NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUES NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR WED.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S.
757 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THIS RIDGE. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP ENHANCED N TO NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID SOUTH TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WINDS/WAVES OVER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
A DAMPENED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE PREVIOUSLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WAS ABLE TO CARVE OUT TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS (925-700 MB). SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HAVE PRESSED EAST ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. CONVECTION HAS PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE LOWER KEYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN ON TUESDAY BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REGISTER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S (HIGHER OVER NW AL).
Temperatures behind the boundary are slightly cooler than hourly forecasts but are in line with overnight lows. Some isolated showers are continuing to linger however additional accumulations should be limited to the eastern counties and the higher terrain. A weak surface cold front continues to move slowly south across the area.
The main time frame for the low clouds is late tonight to mid-morning Tuesday. Expect a quick breakup of the low clouds between 15Z and 16Z Tuesday. The main time frame for the low clouds is late tonight to mid-morning Tuesday. Expect a quick breakup of the low clouds between 15Z and 16Z Tuesday. With the 850mb thermal ridge centered over the CWA tomorrow we can expect unseasonably warm temperatures continuing with morning lows and afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING EVEN WARMER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
907 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
This activity developing as a strengthening low level jet interacts with a developing warm front extending from northern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop eastward into southeastern Kansas and portions of southwestern and central Missouri overnight into early Tuesday morning as the low level jet veers and the warm front lifts north.
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY AXIS APPEARS TO QUICKLY TRANSITION EASTWARD AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION BUT IT WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT/THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
708 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 448 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ (Today and Tonight) The warming trend will continue across our area today and tonight, as the upper ridge over New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley shifts east into Texas. With mostly sunny skies and west winds, temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s for highs this afternoon. Expect overnight lows to be mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with a few mid 30s in the low-lying areas and river valleys of our southern counties.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT ALSO WEAKENS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WE LOSE ICE CRYSTALS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND HELP RAISE CEILINGS.
FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL MODELS AND THEY INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE WEST.
202 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM. Heights aloft will continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level ridge begins to move east toward the region. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the area from the northeast.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
323 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
1235 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
308 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY NICE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AS IT OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 307 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.
1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVG INTO FAR SW ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS BEING DRIVEN BY THE LFQ OF A 150 KT JET STREAK AND A S/W TROF. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS COMBINING WITH THE UPPER FORCING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SNOW OVER EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL WI. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. AND AN INVERTED SFC TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PCPN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
1029 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 SFC ANALYSIS TODAY HAS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO W TX WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE BIG BEND AND INTO S TX. ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK N TOWARDS NEW ENG.
The only exception to the VFR conditions is there will be IFR conditions in patchy freezing fog over the far southwest valleys this morning and there is a very small threat of MVFR/IFR conditions in freezing fog in the southwest valleys late tonight.
1110 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SNOW CHANCES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE PLATEAU TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH SUBTLE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPROVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW. MAIN LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR QUIET WEATHER.
326 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/RAPID HEIGHT RISES WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE/PCPN SETTLING WELL SOUTH SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUESDAY AS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES LOW LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT WILL KEEP TERMINALS MAINLY VFR INTO TOMORROW.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
244 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 DOMINATE FEATURE THIS AFTN PER SATL PIX IS WELL AMPLIFIED/STAGNANT UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS FORMING INTO A REX BLOCKING PATTERN.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
251 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 A LENGTHY COLD FRONT AND WIND SURGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LARGE. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND SWEPT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AS A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 27/06Z SHIFTING THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A WEAK DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
/ISSUED 1029 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS TODAY HAS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO W TX WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE BIG BEND AND INTO S TX. ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK N TOWARDS NEW ENG.
1138 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.
LOCATION MON HI TEMP MON HI TEMP OBSERVED RECORD 3 PM CST DICKINSON 51 (RECORD) 49 IN 1931 WILLISTON 50 (RECORD) 47 IN 2006 BISMARCK 50 52 IN 1942 MINOT 45 58 IN 1906 JAMESTOWN 41 52 IN 1990 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
421 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/RAPID HEIGHT RISES WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE/PCPN SETTLING WELL SOUTH SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUESDAY AS WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES LOW LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. BETTER RESPONSE TO WAA EXPECTED WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING MIXING. SHRTWV APCHG PAC NW/SW CANADA TODAY KICKING OUT CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF BAJA. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALSO PSBL. ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. /ISSUED 300 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT.
1122 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 H5 ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER NERN NEVADA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND ONEILL SSW TO AROUND LEXINGTON AS OF 2 AM CST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS EAST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C. COLD FRONT TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL.
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AS WELL RESULTING IN LIGHTER NORTH WINDS.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S. 77 /ISSUED 236 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT SPOKE ROTATING THRU TN AND AL AS A POWERFUL 170KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY W-WNWLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ACROSS SRN TN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE L-M30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO FREEZING NEAR SEWANEE (ABOVE 1800 FT), BUT PROBABLY TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBLEMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST BUT BREAK DOWN SOME IN DOING SO.
/ISSUED 333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
Broad area of BKN-OVC cloud decks above 15,000 ft will continue for a few more hours over central MT as additional moisture moves down the east flank of the high pressure ridge that will move across the state next 24 hrs. Expect skies to be mostly clear by late aftn/eve as the ridge axis crosses the Rocky Mtn Front and moisture is pushed further east.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER FOR TOMORROW. AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS.
255 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 Today's short wave diving into the mean eastern North American trof ended up remaining a little more robust than anticipated, despite indications yesterday that it would be much more sheared out and weaker by the time it arrived. One thing that will be need to be watched closely across the entire forecast area, at least through this evening, is the threat for freezing drizzle. One more cool day (but near normal for late January) is expected across central and southeast Illinois on Tuesday as northerly low level flow develops ahead of an approaching ridge of high pressure.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER TX WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY TUE MORNING. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY THU MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF PHASES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE MEAN TROUGH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN ENERGY CUTOFF. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER ACROSS WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES. OUR LATE JANUARY THAW CONTINUES TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE. A SHRINKING BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. MID 60S FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS AND BALMY 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AND BALMY TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS COLORADO ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
An upper level high pressure system, currently over the Four Corners area, will continue to migrate east through Tuesday. With mostly sunny skies, and high pressure building into West Central Texas, expect temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 70s on Tuesday.
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND MOVED EAST TODAY. HAVE NOT SEE THE LOWER VALUES EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AREAS SEEING RH VALUES INTO THE 30S PERCENT RANGE. ALOFT THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A NOREASTER ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
Cloudiness associated with the wrap around moisture from the departing low pressure system mainly across our southeast AL and GA zones will dissipate or move out.
Temperatures will be cooler across the eastern Ozarks with highs approaching 50 degrees.
343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NW IOWA BY MORNING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AS WINDS DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE NEARS FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. THE POTENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL SOON HELP CREATE THE NORTHEAST U. THE MAV AND MET ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE HAD TO CUT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND WILL DO SO INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION BUT ALSO A STRONG INVERSION WHICH HAS TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS PRODUCING THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA.
THE EAST PACIFIC REX BLOCK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING. WITH THIS NEGATIVE TILT IT WILL BE RATHER STUBBORN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. SOME OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGHS DOWN BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. EACH MODEL RUNS SHOWS LESS QPF AS BAJA CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGE AXIS.
206 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
307 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WESTERN WI TO NEAR OTTUMWA IA AND THEN INTO NORTH TX. DOPPLER RADAR/SURFACE OBS WERE INDICATING THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED INTO SE WI/NE IL WITH AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SW WI. FORECAST FOCUS ON SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW IL SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 900 MB WHICH SHOULD TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL BRING A WARMER NIGHT. I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INFLUENCE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS ADDED LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. BEFORE A STRONGER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO TURN TOWARD THE SE. ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN KEYING ON A STRONGER SFC WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA WELL TO THE E SUN NIGHT. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. AS ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.