Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Adjusted temps in the short term to account for slightly cooler start to the day in the northern areas. Regardless, relatively dry airmass will help temps rebound nicely through the day topping out in the lower 80s areawide.
(Issued 223 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016) The deep upper low has not moved much over the last 24 hours and remains centered over central Kentucky. This has helped provide the area with the cooler temps yesterday and the cooler overnight lows. As of 2 am, parts of central middle TN were in the upper 40s while northern AL was in the lower 50s. Have kept the northern half a bit cooler today to account for this. Overall, highs will be in the lower to middle 70s. Similar conditions from the past two nights will exist tonight with lows in the lower 50s.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available IR imagery overlaid as of 900 am, overlaid with model streamline analysis depict a deep middle and upper level trough centered over the Middle Ohio Valley with an attendant axis extending south into the NW Caribbean Sea. Well to the southwest of that, the center of an east to west oriented expansive deep and warm core middle and upper level ridge was located over Central Mexico, with the eastern periphery of the ridge reaching near the Yucatan Peninsula.
Have also lowered temperatures in many areas where clouds and persistent showers will keep values down in the lower to mid 50s. Afternoon temps will be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday as mostly cloudy skies will prevent much diurnal heating. By Saturday night, the low will be centered over the great lakes region. The positioning of the low Saturday will still continue to impact the weather over the northeast. Saturday will be another chilly day with temps reaching the low to mid 60s. During this period the slow moving upper level low will track from southern Michigan to western New York.
1102 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Update Low pressure will slowly spin across Lower Michigan bringing wet weather through the weekend. Fair weather will finally arrive early next wee as the low finally moves away. Areas of rain showers should be fairly progressive in nature with the short waves moving around the center of the upper low. It is forecast to move north back into Lower Michigan by the end of the period then finally get kicked east as longwave trough moves into the western CONUS.
522 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016 08Z analysis places a low pressure center over southeastern Montana with a trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. High pressure was located over MN/IA resulting in a relatively tight sfc pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds across the SD part of the forecast area. A period of increased cloud cover will lead to high temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
This guidance is supported by the latest water vapor trends that indicate a piece of upper-level energy swinging around the base of the pacific northwest trough.
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows center of persistent upper low centered over central Kentucky. Scattered showers continue to pivot around the low, with the most concentrated area of rain immediately to the north of the center over southern Indiana/far northern Kentucky. With upper low slowly lifting back northward and lapse rates steepening, MUCAPE values are progged to reach the 600-1000J/kg range across the east later today. Upper low will continue to lift northward into northern Indiana by Saturday evening.
on the W side of a stationary upper level low pressure system over KY. /issued 500 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/ Little has changed over the last day or so with the 1034mb high centered in just North of Lake Superior and the upper low over IN/KY and appears to be drifting back NW. The winds will be lighter than yesterday as the high has drifted Eastward, but we will see more below average readings for today.
Weak ridging continues closer to home over much of Alabama. A potent and large upper low continues to rotate over portions of the Ohio Valley. Unfortunately, the center of the upper low (thus the stronger lift/more concentrated/deeper moisture and rainfall) is well north of Southern Middle TN and northern Alabama. Temperatures, especially west of a line from Winchester to Cullman, are 2 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday at 10 am. This is mainly due to the low clouds that continue and fog earlier this morning. (Issued 625 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016) For 12Z TAFs: A large upper low over central KY will continue to rotate wrap arnd clouds, with mainly IFR ceilings, across the taf sites thru 15z.
947 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Not a whole lot of change during the past 24 hours or so, with pesky upper level low pressure still spinning away across the lower Ohio Valley. Persistent dry NE low level flow well north of the low center has kept much of the precip at bay across our CWA so far. large area of heavier precip continues to make steady NW progress into Southern Lower Michigan driven by a strong vort lobe rotating around the upper low. So far the forecast is going close to anticipated with the upper low from a couple of days ago stalling out across the southern Ohio Valley.
Some moderate to briefly heavy amounts were seen as it traversed the Lower Susq and central mountains overnight into this morning. Another Afternoon max temps will only reach the upper 50s across the higher terrain of the north and west. Will follow the cooler EC and NAM guidance for max temps ranging from the upper 50s across the higher.
Maliawco Southwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana the next few days as an upper ridge will be over the Dakotas and an upper trough currently off the BC and Pacific NW coast will digs south.
1129 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 A large upper level low will remain in place over the Ohio Valley today, and then begin lifting north through the Great Lakes this weekend. Under the influence of this upper low expect cool and occasionally rainy conditions. Chances for rain will begin to diminish on Saturday, as the low gradually begins to move to the northeast.
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through Saturday morning. Considerably drier air has moved into the region and surface dew points have fallen into the lower 50s. Dry air in place should allow for a large diurnal range in temperatures today and fcst soundings support high temperatures in the lower 80s this afternoon.
649 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Main forecast focus in the short term is the pesky upper low and its journey back north-northwest toward the area. The highest likelihood for any rain will be primarily across WI, with chances diminishing greatly west of the Mississippi River. Model solutions have been very similar and consistent for the last several days on this scenario, but have differed somewhat on just how much rain will actually manifest as the system battles the drier air in the ridge axis.
1119 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Upper level closed low now centered near Louisville KY with surface boundary east of the mountains over NC and VA. The upper low will only move little throughout the rest of the day.
651 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue today and through tomorrow, as upper-level low pressure spins and slowly retrogrades across the Mississippi Valley, keeping the region entrenched in northerly flow. In general, the response of the west- ward creeping upper low will be to increase cloud cover particularly across the eastern half of the CWA, and possibly allow a few very light, very isolated rain showers to develop east of Hwy 65.
A ridge of high pressure with main axis transitioning east across the combined Panhandles will prevail over the region through the late this evening.
1226 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 High pressure will remain across the area through Saturday.
Upper low to our east will finally get a nudge to the northeast by late in the weekend. but our weather will largely be under the influence of upper ridge between the two systems.
948 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 The cold front is dropping south of the area with drier air advecting into the region. A cold front will wash out over the waters Today with prevailing winds generally out of the southwest around 10 to 15 knots.
1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon continues to feature a longwave trough across the western CONUS, with downstream ridging found across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest. On Saturday, the upper-level ridging that has been in place for the past several days will slowly shift off to the east-southeast. KD Convection should move into northeast and central MO Saturday night as a deepening upper level trough moves eastward through the northern Plains and the persistent upper level ridge over our area begins to shift further southeast. This upper level ridge along with surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions southwest into southeastern MO and southern IL will likely keep areas from STL south and east dry through Saturday night.
Clear and cool conditions are in store tonight with many high elevation locations above 6500 feet expected to see freezing temperatures by Saturday morning. Dry and slightly warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend. Clear skies are prevailing tonight across northern Arizona in the wake of yesterday's cold front. The low pressure center continues pushing northeast with dry northwest flow over Arizona. Many locations in the high country above 6500 feet will see freezing temperatures tonight. Expect dry weather on Saturday as Arizona is influenced by northerly flow on the back side of the trough stretched from the northern Plains into the southern Rockies.
This is largely a persistence weather forecast with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. The increasing low level moisture should keep our temps a degree or two warmer tonight compared to last night, with similar gains expected again Saturday night.
928 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After a cold front passes through the region, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend. Daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's values.
Then high pressure will gradually build over the Inland Northwest through the weekend resulting in dry and warmer weather.
Convection will likely develop tonight to the west across the South Plains and Permian Basin as lift ahead of the large upper level trough axis begins to move into West Texas.
731 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into Saturday.
While this ridge is suppressing most precipitation, we are very efficiently heating up today as we did yesterday and this is allowing a few isolated very tiny pop up short lived heat induced showers across an otherwise partly cloudy day with your standard cumulus development.
Slightly drier air will filter into the area for Saturday as an upper-level ridge builds over the region.
It was moving into a rather deep upper low over the eastern Great Basin. East of that low, strong upper ridging continued across the southern CONUS with a 500mb high in the 591 decameter range over the Mid South. Strong heating under this high and rather low moisture values has resulted in a few/scattered convective cumulus across the region. Over the next couple of days, high pressure will move overhead and eventually shift eastward. Those readings will be in the low/mid 90s (a tad warmer Saturday).
723 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through overnight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. A very weak and moisture starved cold front extends east-west just south of a line from Wellsboro to Bradford and westward. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
A strong cold front pushed east of the CWA this evening, with some thunderstorms lingering over the NE panhandle until midnight. All this in association with a strong upper low currently beginning to lift northeast around the Utah/Wyoming border. Activity will move into the high plains tonight as the upper low moves northeast across Wyoming. On Saturday the upper low will move over the northern plains with downsloping flow expected to dry things out east of the mtns. Wrap-around moisture will bring some rain and snow showers to western parts of the CWA with a few inches of snow over the higher mtns mainly saturday morning. All pcpn should end Saturday evening as the upper low moves over North Dakota and the main trof axis moves by the area.
921 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A cold front will push south of the area this evening.
725 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday.
A strong upper level low was over northern UT this aftn with moderate QG ascent over CO at this time. As the upper low moves into central Wy tonight. Cooler on Saturday and generally dry across the northeast plains. A mix bag of rain and snow showers in the high country saturday aftn. The upper level low will be over Wyoming on Saturday with wrap around moisture continuing to bring precipitation to the mountains through Saturday afternoon. Instability and lingering moisture will keep a slight chance of precipitation through Saturday evening for the higher mountains and adjacent plains. Elsewhere on the plains clouds will increase through the day with cooler temperatures on continuing cold advection.
1048 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A cold front will move across the Tri-state by around midnight.
Expect quiet but warm and humid conditions overnight as high pres ridges sw over the area allowing for a lt e-sely flow in the lower lvls. Latest water vapor imagery shows a large upper level trough across the mountain west moving slowly to the east. As the upper level trough slowly makes it way to the east, lift will increase and so will the shower activity as the weekend progresses.
821 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through overnight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. A very weak and moisture starved cold front extends east-west just south of a line from Wellsboro to Bradford and westward. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
629 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon continues to feature a longwave trough across the western CONUS, with downstream ridging found across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest. On Saturday, the upper-level ridging that has been in place for the past several days will slowly shift off to the east-southeast. KD Convection should move into northeast and central MO Saturday night as a deepening upper level trough moves eastward through the northern Plains and the persistent upper level ridge over our area begins to shift further southeast. This upper level ridge along with surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions southwest into southeastern MO and southern IL will likely keep areas from STL south and east dry through Saturday night.
804 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 After a cold front passes through the region, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend. A cold front is currently moving through the region from north to south, although all of the clouds and precipitation remain north of the front. Behind the cold front, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will begin to inch southward. Although overnight temperatures will be similar to last night's low temperatures, daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's values.
Cloud field more impressive to the south with 19Z dewpoints back into the lower 70s along the Red River. Upper flow becomes more meridional as the deep upper low slides east through Utah per water vapor imagery. Deep moisture will return late tonight into Saturday as the upper low enters Wyoming tonight, with energy still progged to split to the northeast and south during the day. Associated cold front still remains to the east through the day, but expect the lift to be enough to bring at least scattered precip by late afternoon in the moist atmosphere.
1133 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through overnight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. A very weak and moisture starved cold front extends east-west just south of a line from Wellsboro to Bradford and westward. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 95 68 92 / 0 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 93 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 93 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 10.
Warm front continues to surge northward this afternoon with a large temperature gradient across the region. Low clouds and fog remain stuck over the higher elevations of the eastern CWA and will keep fog mention into the evening/overnight hours as things may be a bit harder to scour out here. Focus will then shift to Saturday as low pressure moves northward into ND.
517 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 20z surface analysis shows low pressure centered over eastern colorado with a warm front arcing northward from southwestern into central and eastern South Dakota. The upper low is located over far southwestern Wyoming this afternoon and will track eastward tonight. Temperatures have risen into the mid 90s in the area of sunshine south of the warm front over south central South Dakota, with lower 60s in the region of stratus over far northwestern South Dakota. A fast moving cold front will push into northwestern CWA Saturday afternoon with gusty west to northwest winds.
1051 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday.
1055 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 20z surface analysis shows low pressure centered over eastern colorado with a warm front arcing northward from southwestern into central and eastern South Dakota. The upper low is located over far southwestern Wyoming this afternoon and will track eastward tonight. Temperatures have risen into the mid 90s in the area of sunshine south of the warm front over south central South Dakota, with lower 60s in the region of stratus over far northwestern South Dakota. A fast moving cold front will push into northwestern CWA Saturday afternoon with gusty west to northwest winds.
935 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into Saturday.
With troughing Northeast of the region though, expect to see additional shower development over the coastal waters overnight, but this activity should remain over the waters. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight as airmass remains fairly moist in the lower levels.
A large ridge of High Pressure over the plains states is expected to build across the Ohio valley and Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. High pressure over Ontario will also build southwest.
The upper low across the northeast Gulf is forecast to remain in place on Saturday.
/issued 912 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ An upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. /issued 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s. An upper level ridge remains in place over the Mississippi Valley today and the ridge should remain over the region for much of the weekend.
Surface and upper ridging resulted in another hot day across the CWA with multiple daily high temperature records being broken.
1043 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 A cold front will move across the Tri-state this evening.
734 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 A cold front will push south of the area this evening.
A summertime ridge of high pressure was responsible for the warm and dry weather.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the weather dry and very warm over the next 36 hours. A diurnal Cu field will give way to mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the lower-middle 60s.
Low pressure develops over the Plains and slowly shifts East. The only forecast problem tonight will be the continuation of low level moisture trapped beneath a ridge and North of a very slow moving warn front across central Iowa which kept low clouds and reduced visibilities in fog.
915 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016 Upper level low with center now moving into SW WY this evening will drift slowly east tonight while a weaker upper level trough moves into western MT from the Pacific NW. To the N and W, skies have partially cleared with scattered-broken mid-high level cloud-cover still moving overhead ahead of the Pacific NW trough with a few isolated showers possible along the Continental Divide. The upper low that brought widespread precipitation over the last couple of days will continue to move east across Wyoming over the next 24 hours. Moisture wrapping around the low will keep at least scattered showers with occasional MVFR ceilings over the southeast TFX terminals (KBZN and KLWT) overnight.
All this in association with a strong upper low currently beginning to lift northeast around the Utah/Wyoming border. Activity will move into the high plains tonight as the upper low moves northeast across Wyoming. On Saturday the upper low will move over the northern plains with downsloping flow expected to dry things out east of the mtns. Wrap-around moisture will bring some rain and snow showers to western parts of the CWA with a few inches of snow over the higher mtns mainly saturday morning. All pcpn should end Saturday evening as the upper low moves over North Dakota and the main trof axis moves by the area.
912 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. /issued 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/ Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s. An upper level ridge remains in place over the Mississippi Valley today and the ridge should remain over the region for much of the weekend.
Temps at 930 pm were mainly in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s under mostly clr skies. (Issued 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016) For 00Z TAFs: An upper high will continue to dominate the wx across the TN valley with vfr conditions for both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period.
Saturday will be dry and mostly cloudy, especially in the morning with highs from the lower 70s to near 80.
The latest forecast models continue to have a strong upper level ridge over IL on Saturday with 500 mb heights around 589 dm.