Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS. WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SUSPECT MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUN. THOUGH IT DOES ALSO HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUN. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER KCOS AND KPUB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL CA OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A NOTICABLE COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 5-10 DEG F BELOW YDAY. 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGHY PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
341 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 (Tonight and Monday) Weak upper low over southwest Texas is showing up well on water vapor imagery, with the center located south of Ozona this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have developed today mainly along and south of interstate 10, as the low continues to shift slowly southeastward. Tomorrow should be dry as the upper low heads farther to the southeast.
1119 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015 UPPER TROF ACROSS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN U. S ROCKIES NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THOUGH DEW POINTS STILL LOOK A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TOWARDS 12Z MON. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
Windy conditions are likely this evening in the wake of a cold front passage. High pressure this weekend will bring a return to mild weather and less wind.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY.
High pressure across Eastern North Carolina this morning has moderate easterly flow in place across our region. With sunny skies and a building ridge aloft, temperatures are warming quickly through the upper 50s as of 10 am ET. Expect a warm and dry day across the region with highs in the low to mid 70s away from the coast. Easterly flow over the cooler shelf waters of Apalachee Bay will keep locations from Alligator Point westward through Apalachicola a little cooler - in the mid 60s.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHALLOW TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
These showers have caused slick road conditions for mountain passes such as Lookout, Lolo, Lost Trail, and Marias Passes, as well as across the Butte/Blackfoot region due to accumulating snow and melting snow freezing to roadways. Along with another round of precipitation, a cold front will once again bring breezy conditions over night.
1236 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY.
GUSTS DECREASED BELOW 45 KT FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COOLER WITH 50S-AROUND 60 ALONG/EAST OF I-25. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
930 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THEN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WAS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. 58/ROSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH VERY WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.
WHICH IS A POTENT UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. BUT FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN FALL RAPIDLY TO AROUND 3000 FEET SAT MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
Gradient will continue to tighten as the low deepens and tracks eastward into the Great Lakes later today. The southerly flow has already boosted 3am temps into the lower 50s across the S/SW. Weak cold front will settle southward into the Ohio River Valley where it will become parallel to the upper flow and stall during the day Saturday.
841 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. FOR THIS REASON WILL LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GO AND ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY UNTIL NOON. A CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY ROADS IN THE NW. TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. AND WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO BARNES COUNTY WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. MANY OTHER AREAS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W TROUGH MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS. PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW GENERATING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING. ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.
At 12z one 500mb trough was located over South Dakota with another upper level trough located over northern Montana/southwest Saskatchewan. Over the Central Plains at 12z Friday a 700 mb baroclinic zone extended from northeast Colorado to southwest Iowa, A surface cold front along with an 850mb baroclinic zone stretched from southeast Colorado to northeast Oklahoma. Some of the models are warmer than others (ECE vs. Since the wind is progged to stay up a bit, took the warmer solution with overnight lows ranging from 39 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit.
726 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALSO WILL BUMP UP HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US. ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH THE RIDGE INFLUENCING OUR SKY CONDITIONS.
High pressure will be centered over the East Coast today. Winds will become southerly this afternoon as the high moves eastward. Highs this afternoon will be near 70 for most locations and in the lower 70s for the eastern Big Bend Region.
A cold front was approaching from the northwest, and will bring a wind shift. No precipitation is expected with this cold front.
WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOOKS MORE LIKE STRATUS OF THE LOW-MVFR/IFR VARIETY.
113 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
06Z SFC DATA HAS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR KMBG. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR KEVV WHILE A COLD FRONT RAN FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX DOWN AND RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day Saturday.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING EASTWARD WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH BRUNT OF THERMAL RIDGE ALREADY SHUTTLED EAST OF THE AREA AND SOME LOCAL TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS. BUT EVEN IN COOLER AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS! 06Z SFC DATA HAS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR KMBG. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR KEVV WHILE A COLD FRONT RAN FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX DOWN AND RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
Steady rain or snow will transition to showers this evening as the front shifts eastward with an end to all precipitation expected by morning as upper ridging begins to develop. the weekend looks dry with temperatures warming under the west coast ridge.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
1029 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 CURRENTLY - A ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALIGNED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DRAGGING A RIDGE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IS GENERATING FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON SPRINGS.
BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING ALREADY COUPLED FLOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
By late morning, all sites should have seen the low clouds dissipate and leave VFR skies for the afternoon and evening hours. Southwest flow aloft continues, with the main low level thermal ridge just off to the west.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IS ON TRACK. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A GORGEOUS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE COASTAL TROUGH. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO COOL ONSHORE FLOW WHERE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S. THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
A weak cold front will have little impact this afternoon and south winds may bring MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS to several TAF sites near 20/12Z. Lee troughing with low level thermal ridging will continue to be a fixture through Saturday resulting in much above normal temperatures and no precipitation despite considerable cloudiness.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US. ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH THE RIDGE INFLUENCING OUR SKY CONDITIONS.
Still expect wind speeds to begin to fall off this afternoon as the pressure gradient to weaken behind a cold front that is currently moving across the area. Expect highs mostly in the 70s today across the entire area which is closer to the warmer MAV guidance. Gusts of 30- 40+ mph look likely this morning until early afternoon roughly along and east of the Mississippi River ahead of a Pacific cold front. Airmass behind today's cold front is Pacific in nature so not much teeth at all. In fact, temperatures tonight will still be 10-20 degrees above normal, though still quite a bit cooler than last night.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. WITH MID MORNING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
631 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY.
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION BY WED. AS A STRONG DOME OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SWD OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS COULD HAVE BEEN SEEN IF SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL 21Z. GUSTS DECREASED BELOW 45 KT FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COOLER WITH 50S-AROUND 60 ALONG/EAST OF I-25. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CREATE DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AND THERE IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
19 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
631 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY AND THE WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THREAT OF SEA FOG WILL INCREASE DAILY BETWEEN TONIGHT-MON NIGHT AS 63-67 DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED OVER COOLER NEARSHORE SHELF WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX SUN AFTN AS THE H5 RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LET A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
109 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
1149 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS OF MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 48 62 51 / 0 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 46 61 49 / 0 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 46 60 50 / 0 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 39 59 45 / 0 20 10 30 TN.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH VERY WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.
AND MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING NW TO ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT IS PROGGED TO COME TO A HALT. THOUGH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN LOWERED 850 MB TEMPS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S SE.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EWD. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS KS WILL MAKE ITS WAY SWD INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROF TO THE E WILL LEAVE THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO OREGON THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND AFTERNOON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND GRAUPEL TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO THE LOWER SNAKE AND WEISER VALLEYS BY EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES AND INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Fire weather conditions will be slightly improved Today as the winds are expected to diminish some as we move through the morning hours with the approach of a cold front from the north. Behind the cold front the dew points will drop considerably which will drop RH values to around 20 percent across portions of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Saturday will see temperatures well above normal once again as the cold front that moves into the area this afternoon moves back to the north Tonight.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1000 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY BY THIS MORNING. REPLACED BY DEEPENING LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY'S EXTREME VALUES. THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL RUN SOME 10-20F WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES.
A CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY ROADS IN THE NW. TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. AND WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO BARNES COUNTY WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. MANY OTHER AREAS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.
WITH COLD FRONT RACING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN ND. WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE IN THE SOUTH WITH FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL A CONCERN FURTHER NORTH. A CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY ROADS IN THE NW. TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. AND WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO BARNES COUNTY WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. MANY OTHER AREAS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.
SO HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WITH COLD FRONT RACING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN ND. WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
JMS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH PRESSURE OF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS STRENGTHENED WINDS THIS MORNING. -RA/-DZ SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE START TIME AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
1031 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY AND THE WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
958 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY.
934 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
High pressure will remain anchored along the eastern seaboard through the day today. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track east from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region. We will see a tight pressure gradient across the lower Ohio Valley in between these two systems today. The cold front associated with the low pressure system will slowly approach the area today and then stall out across portions of southern IN or possibly far northern KY.
Expect highs mostly in the 70s today across the entire area which is closer to the warmer MAV guidance. Gusts of 30- 40+ mph look likely this morning until early afternoon roughly along and east of the Mississippi River ahead of a Pacific cold front. Airmass behind today's cold front is Pacific in nature so not much teeth at all. In fact, temperatures tonight will still be 10-20 degrees above normal, though still quite a bit cooler than last night.
1126 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STOP SHORT OF KLBB AND KPVW OR AT THE LEAST MAKE AN UNEVENTFUL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. AND MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING NW TO ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT IS PROGGED TO COME TO A HALT. THOUGH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN LOWERED 850 MB TEMPS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S SE.
These showers will obscure the higher terrain and cause localized low visibility through this morning. While winds have generally been on the decrease, gusts to near 40 kts are still possible through roughly 19/1600z, particularly near ridge top level and exposed high elevation valleys. Initially snow will affect mainly the higher elevations, causing terrain obscuration and low visibility. However a cold front will lower snow levels to most valley floors by Saturday morning, bring the potential for the airfields to also see some light snow. Winds will be breezy through Friday night due to the passing cold front. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning ABOVE 4000 FEET for the Lower Clark Fork Region.
Some of the models are warmer than others (ECE vs. Since the wind is progged to stay up a bit, took the warmer solution with overnight lows ranging from 39 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit.
THERE WON'T BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH, BUT IT WILL DEPOSIT A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.