Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW WINDS. ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE 65-70F RANGE. MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. JORDAN TUESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH IN NW FLOW AND DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL IN ADVANCE OF HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANYING A LONGWAVE RIDGE.
PRIMARY STORM THREATS LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAUSING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS.
Tue PM a shrtwv trof will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the leading edge of trough axis. Thickness will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move into SOCAL by Fri AM.
1042 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 Today's been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central Plains. Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of days than anything else.
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front extending from Huntsville through Lake Charles. A weak, cold pool-induced high pressure system was centered over south central AL, with a couple of weak outflow boundaries on its southeast flank across portions of southeast AL and the northeast Gulf Coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a subtle short wave trough entering the FL Panhandle and south AL, though much of the thunderstorm activity associated with this feature has diminished. Weak Q-G forcing will persist until early Tuesday morning, when this short wave trough passes to our east.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL RESIDES UPSTREAM. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID-STATE EARLIER NOW JUST EAST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 76 50 71 / 80 20 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 73 49 68 / 80 40 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 74 50 68 / 80 30 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 72 47 65 / 90 60 40 50.
942 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA BY 12Z TUE AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE ELEVATED AC/CIRRUS CIGS DEVELOP/SPREAD ESE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY.
629 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 Today's been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central Plains. Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of days than anything else.
758 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT 4000-5000 KFT AGL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
959 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/ Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY. DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
1016 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE S PLAINS INTO C TEXAS.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/ WHERE WEAK CAA. UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an upper-level trough churning across the Midwest. A PV anomaly riding up in the southwest flow ahead of this trough is helping to induce showers and a few thunderstorms in south-central KY this afternoon and will be the main focus of the period. Overnight lows will be chilly, with temperatures expected to dip into the low to mid 50s. The upper-level low will attempt to open up on Tuesday, swinging a trough axis through the region as it does. Highs will be cooler in the low to mid 60s. Brief surface ridging will attempt to build in for Tuesday night as the region lies between systems.
AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING UPR TROUGH WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY.
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION.
CEILINGS LOWER IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE FCST AREA BY END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST (AND A FEW LOWER 70S AT THE COAST).
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH STG WESTERLY FLOW. AS UPPER TROUGH KICKS THRU TUE NIGHT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL USHER IN CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF REST OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE.
933 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY DRAPED SW TO NE FROM NEAR BIRMINGHAM UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA CORNER. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW IS RETURNING BEHIND IT WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
SOME DRIER AIR WAS NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
Still think that the low temperature forecast is on track, but did make adjustments to the hourly trends to hold them up through the evening and then have the drop more pronounced after midnight. The degree of moisture and lift is more uncertain for Tuesday, so have low confidence on measurable precipitation, even with a diffuse lift with the progressive trough.
1134 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 AVIATION DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERIOR SECTION OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
100 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
H500 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. JORDAN TUESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH IN NW FLOW AND DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL IN ADVANCE OF HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANYING A LONGWAVE RIDGE.
918 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016 THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD RIGHT NOW. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE STATE.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY.
806 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE.
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK.
04 (Tuesday night through Monday) A sharp mid/upper-level ridge will exist over the Rockies by Tuesday afternoon, extending north into the western Prairie Provinces.
928 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY.
BUT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES ACRS THE AREA WHILE A VERY COMPACT AND WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WITH N-S ORIENTED TROF LINGERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DRIFT SWD. A UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW WITHIN A DIGGING TROF OVER NRN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL DROP SSE OVERNIGHT THRU LATE DAY TMRW. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. FOLLOWING WARMER LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S TNGT.
918 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING TUESDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHEARING REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW LINGER TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRY AND STABILIZE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. AND THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE AZ BORDER SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS.
OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT MANY COLD CORE UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS INTERSPERSED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGING TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN MORE. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE A CONTINUATION OF MOISTENING IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE OVERNIGHT.
1223 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER SLUGGISH TREND TO DRY AIR ADVECTION AND EROSION OF STRATUS/STRATOCU/ALTOSTRATUS. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH AND HIGHER AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT 4000- 5000 KFT AGL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AND COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE H85/H7 COLD FRONT ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING COUPLET IS SHARPER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. PRECIP WILL NOT RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN THE ONTARIO LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TIE INTO THE ONE GENERATED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SETUP FOR WARM SEASON MCS PRODUCTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SWRN IA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY.
936 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE.
743 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT.
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD SO LEFT CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA BY 12Z TUE AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
The area is currently under a dry southwest flow with an upper level high building over the Four Corners area, and a broad upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast.
1112 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure ridge will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures Monday.
73 (Issued 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016) A large ridge of high pressure across much of the southeast U. The short term models are generally agreeable in building the ridge of high pressure further southwest into the Tennessee valley region through Monday. The proximity of the upper ridge axis to the forecast area will result in a southwest low level flow setting up across the forecast area.
1255 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through Monday, with high temperatures on Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move east across the region Monday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, further northwest, a cold front was across western Minnesota southwest through central Nebraska with the better coverage of storms over central Minnesota. This will bring us one more hot day with afternoon temperatures soaring into the lower 90s, which should fuel the afternoon and evening thunderstorms over parts of central Illinois. Aloft a strong 600 dm 500 mb high was near the AZ/NM border and ridging northeast across IL where 500 mb heights were above 594 dm. Mild lows in the lower 70s overnight which similar MET/MAV reflect.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in our county warning area, with the majority of the activity south of the Lower keys. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic Ridge is aligned across the Southeast United States, resulting in northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots. A deep layered trough draped from the western Atlantic Ocean to across extreme South Florida and our region will migrate southward resulting in low level confluence.
715 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Dry high pressure will build into the region through Monday. Dry high pressure centered near the area will dominate.
The Four State Region remains on the Southeast Periphery of a large upper level ridge of high pressure centered just Southeast of the Four Corners Region that reached to the east across the country to the Northeast States. /issued 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ A weak, inverted upper-level trough along the northern gulf coast producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the ArkLaMiss southward toward an east/west elongated sea breeze boundary across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms to gradually diminish through the evening with temperatures overnight falling into the low to mid 70s.
An upper level area of high pressure is currently over the Plains extending into the area this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the middle 80s to around the 90 degree mark with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. Monday will almost be a repeat of today, with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and index values in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge will be to the west of the area on Monday setting up an upper level northwest flow pattern over the region.
Should continue with a generally rain-free forecast tonight/Monday as a large H50 ridge of high pressure remains draped west to east across the lower MO and Ohio Valley region. Changes begin to take place later Monday night through the rest of the short term as the mid level ridge shifts southward toward the northern Gulf coast states and the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly.
At 20z a Surface cold front has nearly pushed through the FA and was stalled roughly along a Baudette-Bemidji-Breckenridge line. A more stable and dry airmass settles into the area overnight with dewpoints dropping into the lower 50s for most areas by around midnight.
With high clouds streaming in and out along with cooler and drier conditions. Will continue the High Surf advisory for tonight. Winds will decrease some Monday as the High builds further south towards the waters but will probably have to retain the advisory offshore.
827 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Upper low continues to spin in the Western Atlantic as seen in water vapor imagery that has wrapped dry air aloft over the FL Peninsula while rare June cool front has pushed all the way to S FL. Temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler than what has been experienced recently, with lows tonight in the upper 60s and low 70s, and highs on Monday in the mid to upper 80s.
Strong high pressure aloft will expand north and west from the southern Rockies through the first part of the week, bringing hot temperatures to the region. A mid level ridge centered over the southern Rockies continues to elongate as it expands westward across the Desert Southwest this evening.
/issued 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ A weak, inverted upper-level trough along the northern gulf coast producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the ArkLaMiss southward toward an east/west elongated sea breeze boundary across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms to gradually diminish through the evening with temperatures overnight falling into the low to mid 70s.
724 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through Monday, with high temperatures on Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move east across the region Monday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A similar pattern can be expected tomorrow as eastern Texas falls under the relatively weaker southeastern belly of the gargantuan 600 dam ridge centered over the Four Corners. Not a whole lot of synoptic forcing with ridging at surface and aloft.
940 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure centered offshore will continue to provide a warm southwest flow through Monday night.
858 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Aviation A cold front will push through the Great Lakes Region on Monday, sparking a few showers and thunderstorms. The stage will be set for cooler temperatures and comfortable humidity levels to extend through at least the middle part of the week.
0938 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure will remain over the Carolinas through Monday. This high will weaken by midweek as a cold front approaches the Appalachians. High pressure centered over the area will shift over upstate SC by daybreak. With minor air mass modification overnight, lows will generally be a few degrees warmer than this past mornings values. Expect lows to range from the lower 50s in the usual rural cold spots to around 60 in the urban areas. The mid/upper level ridge centered over the Desert SW into the plains will continue bulge/nudge into our area on Monday before retreating some/shifting southward on Monday night as a s/w tracks along the U. As the ridge dampens/retreats on Monday night we could see a weak disturbance track across northern/northeastern portions of the area in northwesterly flow aloft.
The cold front appears to have made it south through our eastern plains this afternoon based on the wind shift observed in sfc obs, although temps have yet to cool off much. The main concern for tonight will be stratus, fog and even drizzle development along and just to the east of the Laramie Range as winds will shift to the east- northeast behind this front, ushering in cooler and more moist air overnight. With a cool and more stable airmass in place tomorrow, could be difficult to see convection fire anywhere but the higher terrain along and west of the Laramie Range. However, some weak isentropic lift across the southern panhandle may provide support for showers and t-storms in the afternoon and evening, especially as the low level jet develops.
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through Monday.
Drier, more stable air is now filtering into the region behind a cold front passage, which will keep decreasing the chances for showers tonight. Surface analysis and model data depict a weakening cold front boundary drifting south across the CWA, and probably moving south of the area during the overnight hours.
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather to the region Monday.
616 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 A cold front was moving slowly eastward into northeast SD/west central MN this afternoon. Otherwise, the models all show cooler and drier Canadian air building into the region tonight and Monday as high pressure ridging builds in. This will bring mostly sunny skies and below normal temperatures to the region on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
There is just way too much dry air and subsidence occurring from the extensive ridge in place across the region for much in the way of cloud formation at a low enough altitude to cause problems for flight.