Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This piece of energy is already making itself known with a band of mostly shra moving north (on west side of low level ridge stretching west over the Southeast) over the northern Gulf coast before sunrise. With the flow off the Gulf along with subsidence from the East Coast upper ridge, temps continue to remain well above seasonal levels. Highs today in the mid to upper 80s, with upper 80s southeast of I65 due to this are seeing the greatest afternoon heating along combined with subsidence from the upper ridge, after the rain moves north. Tonight, continued onshore flow combines with the subsidence from the upper ridge to bring overnight lows in the low to mid 70s tot he area. With long period swell continuing through the day and tonight, have extended the high risk of rip currents to around sunrise Tuesday.
433 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Extensive mid level cloud cover has been persisting across the local area overnight ahead of a cold front across western Nebraska. when the main upper level low helps to push this cold front across the local area. expect the attention to turn from a blustery evening to the potential for near freezing temperatures and frost formation early Tuesday morning. opted not to issue a freeze warning and kept the watch going so the day shift can gain some more confidence on if freezing temperatures or frost will eventually be realized across the western fringes of the local forecast area.
A cold front will continue shifting east through northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. The clearest conditions for the overall night appear to be in north-central Minnesota, where temperatures should drop into the lower 30s. Due to the potential for widespread freezing temperatures, we have issued a Freeze Watch for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, effective Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Temperatures are still expected to drop to the freezing mark in some spots, but not as cold or as widespread as Monday night.
1114 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Potent upper level trough continues to dig south across UT/NV with main vorticity lobe from southwest MT to south central ID. Upper level trough to the west shifts southeast across the central/southern Rockies, with a 568dm low over southwest CO by 18Z Monday, tracking east and weakening to 568dm over western KS by 06Z Tuesday. Nudged snow accumulations up a bit for the NE counties bordering WY to account for Pine Ridge, adding Sioux and Scotts Bluff counties to the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow will taper off from north to south by Monday afternoon with the departure of the upper level trough. Temperatures will be warmest mid-week as southwesterly upper flow resides over the region ahead of an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
Shear/instability is favorable for large hail/damaging winds, however if associated warm front low-level moisture can work its way into southern Kansas like some of the short range models are suggesting. This could create favorable conditions for a few tornadoes to occur, especially if we see increases in the low- level wind fields/0-3km CAPE values.
1108 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 The latest water vapor images and RAP analysis had a positively tilted upper trough over the northwestern CONUS with at least a 110 kt jet from KSLC to KINL. Banded rain/snow extended from southwestern WY into north-central SD, with some snow accumulating over the highest Black Hills. The upper low will move to our south on Monday with drier air filtering into the area, and precip coming to an end over southern SD during the morning.
Some "better" relief is on the way though as a cold front moves through the region early Tuesday morning. Behind the front, gusty northerly winds are expected which will help to draw in lower dewpoints by Tuesday afternoon and cooler temperatures. Increase in winds expected behind the cold front later on Tuesday.
Light westerly winds today will veer to the north overnight behind a weak cold front dropping south. An upper low will move through the Midwest and approach the southern Great Lakes region late Tuesday night.
Water vapor imagery showed a longwave upper level trough from northern Manitoba southwest toward the southwest CONUS. The upper level trough will move into Minnesota by this evening, passing east of the Northland overnight with quasi-zonal flow aloft on Tuesday over much of our CWA. This will lead to cold temperatures with lows in the lower to middle twenties over far northern Minnesota and mid twenties to lower thirties from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin. We left the Freeze Watch going for Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and Price Counties for now as some areas will see sub-freezing temperatures but we are not as confident widespread freezing temperatures will occur there. After a cold start, Tuesday should be a nice day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming into the lower to middle fifties thanks to high pressure.
337 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Upper trough is still amplifying into northeast Utah with upper level divergence and large scale ascent producing widespread precip over the CWA. With the snow cover on the ground over portions of the area and 700 mb temps around -8C, highs will struggle to get out of the low 40s, a good 25 degrees below normal.
An upper ridge will advance toward the region today from the west and extend into eastern Montana. Associated height rises will lead to warmer temperatures late in the day all while large scale subsidence translates to dry weather conditions.
There will be a push of cooler air behind the front, with the short term ending on a cooler note.
WaveWatch/Gerling-Hanson predict swell periods/heights to steadily fall overnight, and not confident that the high risk for rip currents will continue beyond 12z Monday.
348 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Much of the region will see another very warm day ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive late this afternoon. An upper trough continues to dig over the Rockies as a strong cold front enters the TX Panhandle early this morning. Strong daytime heating along with pressure falls ahead of the upper trough will hold the front up over the northern Permian Basin for a few hours. The front will get a renewed push this evening as the upper trough pivots northeast across the TX/OK Panhandles. Latest guidance is indicating temperatures just above freezing across northern Lea County by morning.
Skies will be mostly sunny Monday morning with clouds increasing some later in the day as an upper level trough starts to spread into the Plains. An upper level trough will spread into the central Plains Monday night and across the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough a cold front will spread east across the area. Shear will increase across the region ahead of the upper level trough. Showers and few storms will remain possible on Tuesday as the trough moves across the region. Behind the front cooler conditions will over spread the region.
353 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 The region will see patchy morning fog today before high pressure aloft brings breezy, dry, and warmer conditions Monday and Tuesday.
323 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 A fairly stagnant pattern for most of the week, with a 500 mb high pressure centered just to the north.
Aloft: WV and upr-air data show a subtropical high over the Desert SW with a ridge extending N into Canada. and a trof over the GtLakes. This trof will move anticyclonically thru the ridge and arrive into Neb/CO tomorrow. the high will also slip S into the mid MS Vly with the Nrn Rockies cool front continuing mainly E. The dominating upper level ridge across the Rockies will continue to expand eastward through the weekend.
Temperatures generally ranged from 75 to 80, although it was cooler in spots near Lake Superior.
The lower atmosphere is very moist, but am not confident enough in low vis fog based on expected cloud cover to include such low visibilities in current forecast. As a cold front approaches Saturday morning, ceilings expected to decrease and approach MVFR with the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms at all sites.
Cooling onshore flow will increase and become strong on Saturday afternoon, and the marine layer will deepen on Saturday night due to the passage of an upper trough.
Temperatures this afternoon are running a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday's. This warming trend will continue into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds westward.
355 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level trough swinging through southern Ontario this afternoon will generally dissipate this evening with a mainly quiet night expected after sunset.
Some patchy fog still possible around the Cheyenne Ridge this morning as T/Td spreads are getting close.
A broad upper level ridge is in place over much of Montana, with western and central North Dakota situated on the eastern periphery. Regarding thunderstorm chances, a cold front that is currently located over eastern Montana will push into western and central North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. While the strongest forcing will remain north of the international border, water vapor satellite imagery does show a weakness riding along the ridge that should provide enough lift for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the cold front as we erode afternoon capping. Saturday will be dry and slightly cooler after the passage of the cold front.
A cold front across the Ohio Valley will continue south toward the area tonight as an upper trough pivots through the Northeast U.
High pressure will build across the region for the weekend bringing hot temperatures.
Surface wise, a formidable western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the southeast United States. A deep tropospheric ridge axis will hold firm across the southeast United States and Florida peninsula, leaving our area in a decelerating low level easterly flow. Little change in the overall pattern with our region lying on the southern periphery of ridge to our north. High temperatures will generally be just above 90 degrees with overnight averaging in the lower 80s.
444 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 This afternoon showers and thunderstorms continued to develop and spread South across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest and South Central Arkansas along and ahead of an outflow boundary that rounded the Northeast periphery of the upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains. trough of low pressure. As the ridge becomes more established across the Rockies and out across the Plains through the weekend a cold front associated with the Eastern trough will move into parts of South Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma but become nearly stationary before an nudge South over the Eastern end, but the front will wash our over the Interstate 20 corridor.
A warming trend is expected to begin today as high pressure builds into California from the desert southwest. A 596DM 500MB high pressure ridge over the intermountain west is strengthening and backbuilding over much of the western CONUS, including over California, today and is forecast to continue this trend through the weekend. Inland temperatures are also responding to the building ridge by running slightly warmer early this afternoon, though much hotter temperatures are not expected to arrive until tomorrow.
Weak cold front is hung up near the Ohio River and continues a very slow trek southward across the Ohio Valley. Temps will run on the low side of normal, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s.
Mid/upper level high pressure draped across the eastern half of TX will shift west through tonight maintaining a subsident environment across S TX. As the high shifts farther west, a mid level easterly wave will approach the region, bringing deeper moisture toward the coast.
Broad high pressure aloft covers much of the Wrn and Central US and will help maintain mostly stable weather over South Central TX through tonight. A mid level ridge axis will separate the areas of instability to the east and west and leave the more populated central counties dry for tonight. A slow westward drift of these features will continue into Saturday as the features undercut the bottom of the high latitude reaching broader upper ridge.
Temps across the area are generally in the low 90s with heat index values near 100. We will start to see a bit a transition in the pattern beginning on Saturday as a weak cold front shifts through, or washes out over, the region. Deep layer, and strong ridging, through the upper levels will moderate as a short wave trough swings through the SE US.
258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Gulf moisture associated with an inverted trough across the Big Bend area is slowly pushing northward and eroding mid level dryness that has been present for some time over the FA. The upper ridge dominating the western half of the CONUS will flatten over the weekend as an upper level trough pushes across Canada. This will weaken the ridge allowing for slight height falls.
Warm air being pumped into western WI out ahead of the approaching cold front on southwesterly winds will help us to reach lower 80s for highs.
245 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 WV imagery shows the inverted upper trough has moved west out of the Big Bend into Chihuahua, while a decaying MCV from last night continues moving up the Pecos River. Although the inverted trough has moved off into Chihuahua, models are slow to move it much further, keeping it around during the weekend.
Overall, temperatures with trend warmer close to seasonal normals. Activity will generally weaken going into Friday night with the loss of instability, with only some lingering shower activity, mainly closer to the international border as the upper trough swings through the area. The trough progresses eastward on Saturday as the day wears on. Weak high pressure moves into the area bringing drier conditions for Saturday night.
High pressure, roughly centered over Rochester, MN, will once again drive the short term weather. High pressure will slide south into the CWA tonight.
However with this said, we will have to watch out for the possibility that some of this low level moisture could return to southwest and central Wisconsin as the winds become southerly late tonight. On Saturday afternoon and evening, the models continue to show that a cold front will move southeast through the area. However if the dew points can get into the mid 70s or the temperatures can get into the lower 90s west of the Mississippi River, scattered storms could also form in that area too.
224 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The threat for showers and storms will continue today with the slow passage of a cold front. Cooler and more comfortable for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the southeastern periphery will likely continue through the evening hours as a slow moving cold front approaches. The cold front will finally drive south of the area late tonight as the upper-level low pushes through.
Have therefore kept the higher PoPs and QPF amounts over mainly the southwest and southern portions of the forecast area through Saturday with the possibility of localized heavy rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flash flooding.
Regional surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front currently trekking through the Ohio Valley. The high pressure ridge axis that has been nearly bisecting the SE for the past couple of days will dip a bit further south today in response to the southward progressing cold front. Mid/upper levels haven't changed too much yet, still showing strong ridging in place. Temps rising into the low/mid 90s and dew points pushing the mid 70s will create heat index values in the low 100s, potentially 105 in some areas.
A large mid/upper tropospheric anticyclone dominate from the Four Corners region up into WY.
133 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The threat for showers and storms will continue today with the slow passage of a cold front. Cooler and more comfortable for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to re-fire as a cold front and parent upper low approach from the northwest. The cold front will finally drive south of the area late tonight as the upper-level low pushes through. Northwest flow aloft and building high pressure will provide a drier and more comfortable weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
Latest models also kick a disturbance across the area mid evening into the late night hours, the first of the disturbances that will break down the upper ridge that has been over the area for the past several days.
Much of the Gulf Coast region was under the influence of a deep- layer ridge, with ample low-level moisture.
Anticipating that temperatures will end up a few degrees cooler behind this boundary, across the northern and northeastern CWA. The warmest conditions will be across south central SD where highs under the thermal ridge axis could push 100 degrees. As weaker wave continues to push into the Great Lakes on Saturday night, boundary will continue to wander southward, and should drop south of the Highway 20 corridor by later in the night or early morning.
Scattered showers/storms are ongoing south of a very weak cold front. Weak cold front is hung up near the Ohio River and continues a very slow trek southward across the Ohio Valley. Temps will run on the low side of normal, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s.
127 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 A cold front which will pass through during the day and evening today. High pressure builds on Saturday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
340 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Noticeable downturn in convection this afternoon as an upper level ridge continues to amplify aloft. However, the spin associated with the remnant area of low pressure can still clearly be seen on satellite imagery this afternoon. This low has provided enough lift and additional moisture to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central and southern Colorado mountains. Elsewhere, the effects from the building ridge have already been felt with temperatures warming several degrees and relative humidities lowering quite a bit compared to this time yesterday.
A weak inverted trough continues to move westward across the northern Gulf, contributing to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. An upper trof digs across the eastern states on Saturday with an associated frontal boundary moving into the southeastern states. This trough combined with daytime heating and the seabreeze will lead to another round of scattered showers and thudnerstorms on Saturday. Lows tonight drop into the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
329 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 (Tonight and Saturday) The large upper level low sitting west of the Big Bend area will continue to slowly push towards the west this afternoon. Any remaining shower activity is expected to dissipate by 7 PM leaving this evening and tonight dry with low temperatures in the lower 70s in most areas. Similar conditions are expected for tomorrow morning with minimal rain chances that will increase after 1 PM tomorrow due to an approaching easterly wave weakening the upper level ridge. (Saturday night through Friday) Broad upper ridging will remain north and west of the region through most of the period.
Meanwhile, cooler marine air will persist along the coast, with temperatures moderating slightly during the afternoon as low clouds dissipate. An upper ridge was located over the WRN half of the nation Friday afternoon, and a trough was positioned over the NERN Pacific.
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 High pressure over Minnesota will drop southeast into Illinois over the next 24 hours. Drier air is filtering south out of the high this afternoon. but dewpoints remain in the low to mid 70s along and south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon. Sky should clear out over most of the area tonight and with drier air pushing in the temperatures should drop into the low to mid 60s over much of the area. Saturday still looks dry and seasonably warm under the influence of high pressure with highs mainly in the mid 80s with low humidity and light northeast flow.
Otherwise, a flat ridge located over the southeastern states at the surface and across the entire southern US aloft.
449 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Cold front will complete it's passage tonight. Surface cold front, marked in observations by a slight wind shift and decrease of dewpoints into the low to mid 60's, will continue to slide southeastward tonight. With the departure of the cold front, expect lows to be closer to season values.
316 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will persist through Saturday as high pressure drifts south across the Great Lakes. Low level flow backing to wrly will allow thermal ridge to build east into the srn lakes with temps about a cat warmer vs today.
Cooler heights aloft may make for enough instability for isolated storm development in the vicinity of this front through the early morning hours. That front should push well south of the region by tonight, but with the upper trough still crossing our longitude, the NAM/GEM/WRF-NMM all keep in some rains across southern KY Saturday morning. one closer to the residual rain in the south, and another into the drier airmass, where temperatures will be cooler and skies clearer. Temperatures Saturday should rise into the low/mid 80s.
302 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 An upper trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east tonight and move across northern New England Saturday while weak low pressure moves to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will be along and in advance of this trough tonight and Saturday.
Overall, the upper level pattern was defined by a large high pressure ridge over much of the western United States, with one 594 dm high center over northwest Arizona and another over the Texas Panhandle and an inverted trough sandwiched between these two features to our southeast over Chihuahua, Mexico.
No real changes to the pattern in the short term as mid level trough/shear axis remains colocated with deep moisture (PWs ~ 2 inches) across the forecast area. Much of the upcoming work week will be influenced by a building upper ridge and an overall reduction in precip chances.
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 248 PM CDT No significant weather expected through the period, as high pressure pushes overhead tonight into Saturday.
Saturday remains the day with the highest potential for widespread thunderstorms.
208 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Cold front has pushed south of our far southeast CWA this afternoon. This drier air will overspread the forecast area tonight, as high pressure in Minnesota settles southeast into central Illinois by early Saturday morning. The first half of the weekend looks quite nice as a result, with highs on Saturday in the lower 80s after starting off in the upper 50s in some areas. The upper ridge currently over the Rockies will edge eastward and flatten a bit, allowing the center of a 594 dm high pressure to push into the mid-Mississippi valley.
120 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Storms developed Thu afternoon along a cold front and aided by a weak upper impulse that was likely the result of remnant storm activity. Temps today should be a few degrees cooler than the last couple, due to most of the forecast area being north of the weak front that pushed through overnight. Upper ridging is expected to maintain over the Rockies and into the high Plains through the weekend. This will push a cold front across the northern Plains and will attempt to make it into the central Plains. Above normal temps look likely through these extended periods, especially for Tue on as upper ridging builds over the southern Plains.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ WV imagery shows the inverted upper trough has moved west out of the Big Bend into Chihuahua, while a decaying MCV from last night continues moving up the Pecos River. Although the inverted trough has moved off into Chihuahua, models are slow to move it much further, keeping it around during the weekend.