Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy south to southwest winds to develop this afternoon then diminish this evening ahead of a cold frontal passage near the end of the TAF period. /issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the region early this morning and will be quickly replaced by increasing mid and upper level southwesterly flow downstream from a compact upper level low that will move from northern California at press time to western Utah at 00Z and then lifting northeastward toward southern Wyoming overnight tonight. A subtle short wave trough over northern Sonora is progged to eject quickly eastward today and may produce some high- based showers later today as it interacts with mid level moisture over the western half of the forecast area.
Showers associated with the warm conveyer belt ahead of the system stretched from the lower elevations of southwest Colorado across the central and northern Colorado mountains. Colder air filtering in behind the cold front associated with this system has brought the snow level down to 6500 feet according to the surface observation at KHDN. Over the morning hours the low moves north of the Elkheads which will cause the broad area of isentropic lift to shift east of the forecast area with more scattered, less organized activity continuing beneath the low. A transitory ridge moves across the region on Wednesday bringing dry weather and mostly sunny to partly sunny skies.
950 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure will become centered just to the south later today and tonight, then slide offshore mid to late week.
643 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure will become centered just to the south later today and tonight, then slide offshore mid to late week.
340 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Low pressure system lifting through the central Rockies will at most spread some clouds into the southern zones as it lifts toward the upper midwest today. This system is being kept to the south by a strong high pressure system over central Canada that will push cooler air into the northern plains today. The cold air will linger into Wednesday, and with clearing skies, expect most of the region to see sub freezing temperatures in the morning.
Dry conditions with temperatures above climatological norms are expected through the period as an upper level ridge migrates east across the area through Wednesday while low level southerly flow prevails.
Afternoon highs will reach the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. High pressure situated north of the area will maintain dry conditions and east winds at 10-15 knots.
Dewpoints this morning range from the mid 50s west to the lower and mid 60s east and will continue to increase. While the overall synoptic pattern remains fairly benign, under the influence of high pressure to the northeast, a weak inverted trough looks to approach the area on Wednesday, however with limited deep moisture, not expecting it to have any impact.
Strong pressure gradient across ern OK/nwrn AR associated with deepening lee trough to the west will result in 25 to 30 mph southerly wind gusts today.
High pressure will build back into the region during Wednesday through the weekend allowing temperatures to rebound back near the seasonal normal.
Today: Mid-level ridge axis has moved over the region this morning. PWs generally less than half inch & dewpoints in the low-mid 40s) combined with calm winds is aiding ongoing efficient rad cooling. For this aftn, mid-level ridge is progged to build E. Light SE winds & dewpoints are progged to rise into the low- mid 50s through the day. Tonight: As mean ridge axis builds E through the TN Valley & pivots a little more E-SE into the Mid-Atlantic, expect low level return flow to help advect better low-level moisture. /DC/ By Wednesday, a low pressure with cyclonic flow extending across the Midwest is expected to bring a weak cold front through the ArkLaMiss region. Low level ridging looks to increase tropical moisture in the SE region ahead of the front, which will increase rain chances within our area.
Current temperatures are mostly cooler compared to 24 hours ago with most of the Central Valley in the lower to mid 40s.
416 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An upper level ridge extended from WI south-southwest through AR with an upper level low over UT early this morning. Above normal high temperatures, similar to yesterday can be expected today with upper level ridging over the region and southerly surface winds. The chance of showers and a few storms will return to our area Wednesday and Wednesday evening as the upper level low moves eastward through the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region and sends a cold front southeastward through our forecast area Wednesday afternoon and night. Scattered showers and a few storms can be expected along and just ahead of the cold front. Cooler low temperatures can be expected Wednesday night across northeast and central MO and west central IL with cold air advection behind the front.
Today Through Wednesday Night Surface analysis shows high pressure over the Appalachians, with a frontal boundary about to move off the Rockies.
Clearing across the northern zones looks to take place a little later as the low clouds are stubborn to move out. TFJ Low pressure system lifting through the central Rockies will at most spread some clouds into the southern zones as it lifts toward the upper midwest today. This system is being kept to the south by a strong high pressure system over central Canada that will push cooler air into the northern plains today. The cold air will linger into Wednesday, and with clearing skies, expect most of the region to see sub freezing temperatures in the morning.
Speaking of which, a trough moving through the upper Plains drags a weak cold front across the area during the overnight hours tonight into Wednesday. Behind the front, temperatures become even more autumnal as highs hang in the low to mid 60s. Synoptically speaking, a large high pressure across the SE CONUS vacates enabling the weather pattern to become a little more active over the next seven to ten days. Once the trough passes through tonight into Wednesday, ridging behind clears things up toward the end of the week. Long range guidance points toward a leeward trough forming across NW TX which drags a warm front up into our region.
537 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Water vapor satellite shows a vigorous upper level low spinning over the Great Basin and swiftly moving eastward over the Rockies. The upper jet associated with this upper low will pivot over the Rockies and assist in lee cyclogenesis over southwestern Nebraska this morning. As the surface cyclone slides northeastward, a cold front will begin to surge southeastward into Kansas this afternoon. Ahead of this cold front, the pressure gradient will remain quite tight keeping stout southerly winds across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 713 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Ridge of high pressure extending northward from the southeast CONUS maintains strong influence over the forecast area through the day with prevailing VFR conditions. Conditions over the next 36 hours are governed by broad upper ridging immediately downstream of a compact closed mid level circulation ejecting across the central conus.
Surface ridging is noted across the E 1/3 of Conus this AM and is expected to continue through the short term for the most part. Now through Wednesday, we will see some slow weakening of the ridge with temperatures and dew points moderating through the short term. With moisture starting to return around the E Conus ridge slowly, an isolated shower will be possible in the far southwest during Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure centered over the southeast is continuing to build into our area this morning, which is keeping the pressure gradient tightened. Winds will remain elevated today as high pressure continues to build across the region. A strong high pressure ridge will continue to expand over the southeastern United States and Florida.
/issued 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ High pressure still holds in place the eastern United States. Expect another great day for the Mid South today as well as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s this afternoon under sunny skies.
920 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure in place over eastern TN and KY. with an associated ridge extending north across Ohio to the eastern Great Lakes. a large ridge was in place over the Illinois. Some of the high cloud arriving from the west may reach Indiana this afternoon. highs in the lower 70s seem very reasonable. High pressure and upper ridging continued to provide quiet weather across central Indiana early thus morning. Warm advection will continue, but some high clouds will ride across the ridge.
Sprawling high pressure over the southeast CONUS and ridging aloft over the region will bring dry, quiet conditions in the short term period. A few high clouds may spill over the crest of the ridge at times, but will not be significant. Near neutral temperature advection will allow sunshine to bring slightly warmer temperatures each day.
and Wednesday A ridge of high pressure will track east of the area today, allowing southerly winds to provide warm air advection across the region. A low pressure system will develop across the Plains tonight and approach the upper Mississippi Valley. Although some models to bring some light precipitation in across the region late tonight, model soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels.
Breezy south to southwest winds to develop this afternoon then diminish this evening ahead of a cold frontal passage near the end of the TAF period.
Strong jet stream winds moving over NM will allow ridge top winds and mt wave activity to produce lcl gusts to near 45 kt across northern NM. Winds will veer to the west then northwest this afternoon as an upper low pulls away from the region. In addition, high temperatures will trend a few to 14 degrees cooler than yesterday as a disturbance passes to the north of New Mexico. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a tightly wound upper low over eastern UT moving northeast into northwest CO. Surface winds are increasing ahead of a Pacific cold front moving slowly eastward into western NM. Low temps will trend several degrees cooler under clear skies. Wednesday will trend a few degrees warmer again with sunny skies, low humidity, and slight breezes over the high plains of eastern NM.
Warmer but still cool today and tomorrow. Clearing skies early today as the upper level low that brought rain/snow showers continues to depart to the east. Ridge will then shift east tonight into tomorrow with southwest flow setting up over the region. Slightly warmer but still cool today with highs in the upper 40s to around 60.
The cold frontal system which brought rain and mountain snow along with gusty winds to central California continues to move away to the east, leaving behind cooler air across our area.
Forecast Summary: We'll see one more warm and windy day today before strong low pressure system brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday. Much cooler air will follow this system to end the week.
High pressure continues to be in control of our weather for one more day with a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. An upper-level trough and associated low pressure system begins to move into the area on Wednesday. The low will bring chances for scattered showers throughout the afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, the limited moisture return will confine the highest chances to the mid to late afternoon and early evening which will result in modest precipitation amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch.
Low-level thermal ridge does amplify today and M80s will be fairly widespread. This with cooling of the low-level thermal ridge does favor slightly cooler high temps Wed.
1033 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure and cooler weather triumphs through Wednesday.
738 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Ohio Valley will slide east through midweek.
307 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Upper low is currently spinning over Utah, with a 110- kt jet rounding its base. Cold front is nearly through the CWA; nonetheless, temperatures at 2 AM are still in the 40s and 50s, and winds are relatively light. Models are in good agreement on the track and timing of the low pressure system, slowing it down slightly. Cooler areas (northeastern WY and BH) will see snow with some minor accumulations today. Deterministic solutions, however, seem on the higher end of the ensembles, so have adjusted the QPF forecast more towards the ensembles. Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the end of the week, as an upper ridge builds.
725 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Ohio Valley will slide east through midweek.
435 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Upper low is currently spinning over Utah, with a 110- kt jet rounding its base. Cold front is nearly through the CWA; nonetheless, temperatures at 2 AM are still in the 40s and 50s, and winds are relatively light. Models are in good agreement on the track and timing of the low pressure system, slowing it down slightly. Cooler areas (northeastern WY and BH) will see snow with some minor accumulations today. Deterministic solutions, however, seem on the higher end of the ensembles, so have adjusted the QPF forecast more towards the ensembles. Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the end of the week, as an upper ridge builds.
High pressure will slowly move east from the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas. Highs today will be a little warmer with readings in the low 80s.
628 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward. As the high moves offshore Wednesday, winds will shift southwesterly and temperatures will rebound above normal.
908 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward. As the high moves offshore Wednesday, winds will shift southwesterly and temperatures will rebound above normal.
Highs expected to reach the low to mid 70s with plenty of sunshine today under high pressure. High pressure at the surface and aloft will control the area for the short term period. As the high pressure departs our area, a cold front and attendant upper-level trough will slowly progress from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley.
The low level flow has become southeasterly and moisture is returning to the region. A broad upper level trough covers northern Mexico and Texas this morning.
515 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High pressure and cooler weather triumphs through Wednesday.
High pressure and upper ridging continued to provide quiet weather across central Indiana early thus morning. Warm advection will continue, but some high clouds will ride across the ridge.
Lots of sun and temperatures in the mid-70s today and slightly warmer on Wednesday as the high pressure that has dominated the region for the last couple of days slides to the east. Showers and a few thunderstorms will close in on Middle TN late Wednesday night as a cold front moves our way.
550 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An upper level ridge extended from WI south-southwest through AR with an upper level low over UT early this morning. Above normal high temperatures, similar to yesterday can be expected today with upper level ridging over the region and southerly surface winds. The chance of showers and a few storms will return to our area Wednesday and Wednesday evening as the upper level low moves eastward through the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region and sends a cold front southeastward through our forecast area Wednesday afternoon and night. Scattered showers and a few storms can be expected along and just ahead of the cold front. Cooler low temperatures can be expected Wednesday night across northeast and central MO and west central IL with cold air advection behind the front.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): As high pressure moves eastward out of eastern Texas, zonal flow replaces it.
An area of low pressure crossing the region later tonight through Wednesday will bring much colder temperatures, decent rainfall, and perhaps some light accumulating snow. The cold front will bring much cooler air into the CWA with highs in the upper 40s, in north central SD, to the mid to upper 60s, over east central SD. A trough of low pressure currently over Utah will track into the area over the next 12 to 24 hours. With surface temps in the lower 30s, along with brief lift, snowfall amounts should range from a dusting to an inch or two on grassy areas.
High pressure has shifted east into the southeast U. Highs should easily reach the lower to middle 70s in valley locations, and upper 60s atop the highest plateau areas.
/issued 455 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): As high pressure moves eastward out of eastern Texas, zonal flow replaces it.
219 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 The main concerns for this forecast will be rain chances with a cold front passage tomorrow, as well as toward the end of the week as the boundary lifts back north across the area. An upper low currently over the Central Rockies will lift out over the Central and Northern Plains throughout the day tomorrow. This will help push a cold front through the area at surface tomorrow afternoon and evening.
1116 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Morning update was to ratchet temperatures down through the northeast-southwest oriented zone in the CWA where the cold front has passed and clouds/caa would be putting a big dent in daytime heating. An area of low pressure crossing the region later tonight through Wednesday will bring much colder temperatures, decent rainfall, and perhaps some light accumulating snow. The cold front will bring much cooler air into the CWA with highs in the upper 40s, in north central SD, to the mid to upper 60s, over east central SD. A trough of low pressure currently over Utah will track into the area over the next 12 to 24 hours. With surface temps in the lower 30s, along with brief lift, snowfall amounts should range from a dusting to an inch or two on grassy areas.
Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure in place over eastern TN and KY. with an associated ridge extending north across Ohio to the eastern Great Lakes. a large ridge was in place over the Illinois. Some of the high cloud arriving from the west may reach Indiana this afternoon. highs in the lower 70s seem very reasonable. High pressure and upper ridging continued to provide quiet weather across central Indiana early thus morning. Warm advection will continue, but some high clouds will ride across the ridge.
It still appears highs in the 50s are reasonable for Wednesday, with developing ridging and clearing, but stubborn fog/low stratus could lower those numbers.
Winds are forecast to remain around 5 mph along the Space/Treasure Coasts, keeping most areas in the low 70s overnight. High pressure near the GA/SC coast will move east over into the SW Atlantic.
High pressure situated over the Southeast region is being accompanied by an abundance of dry air which will continue to support stable conditions across the area. The ridge will shift east tomorrow as a low pressure system tracks towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The rest of the area will remain dry and partly cloudy with the southerly flow providing some warmer air.
316 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Another day more typical of late-summer across the upper midwest as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s across much of the area under plenty of sunshine.
247 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Water vapor loops are again showing a visually appealing cyclone moving across the region the past 24 hours. Radar imagery continues to show either upright or slantwise instability showers moving over the high plateau region. This is moving over a secondary cold front which can also be picked out by the southward moving ducted waves in the H2O imagery.
Conditions over the next 36 hours are governed by broad upper ridging immediately downstream of a compact closed mid level circulation ejecting across the central conus.
A trend toward cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions are then expected for the end of the week and weekend. Dry and stable airmass under an upper level ridge axis will maintain quiet wx conditions into tonight and Wednesday, though there will likely be an increase in mid clouds and southwest winds tomorrow afternoon as a Rockies low pressure system to lifts east-northeast toward the IA/MN. Warm advection will be ongoing otherwise with lows in mid 40s to low 50s tonight, and highs in the low-mid 70s Wednesday.
1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 An upper level ridge will remain over the area again today. An upper low will move across the northern Plains on Wednesday. The drier air mass will still be in place but with the cap weakening and lift from the front, there will likely be enough moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere for some scattered showers to develop along the front during the afternoon hours, generally east of Highway 65. Highs are Wednesday will again warm into the lower to upper 70s with the warmest conditions across south central MO where the front will move through later in the day.
1055 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Latest sfc analyses show high pressure now centered well east of the forecast area which has allowed a return flow to solidly set up over the region, which temps/dewpoints noticeably higher this morning. However local 12z sounding also corroborated just how in control ridging is aloft with nothing but dry air above 850 mb. All in all, an increase in low-level clouds and the previously mentioned warmer/moister conditions, but still no precip expected today.
Dry weather, high pressure, and mostly mild easterly winds will continue through the rest of today with winds becoming more mild overnight with low level clouds increasing to scattered levels by Wednesday morning. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to upper 50s with cooler temperatures occurring in southeast Georgia and in the 60s for areas near the coast and along the St Johns River.
238 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Tonight through Tomorrow: As deeper upper-level troughs dominate the weather off the West and East Coasts this afternoon, broad ridging is generally the rule across the central CONUS. A low pressure system is spinning over CO/WY, and a weak upper-level disturbance traversing the ridge axis can be seen in water vapor satellite imagery. /NF/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: Wednesday evening a nearly stacked low will be nearing the Great lakes region with its associated cold front dropping over the Ozarks.
1207 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward. As the high moves offshore Wednesday, winds will shift southwesterly and temperatures will rebound above normal.
222 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 222 PM CDT Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows vigorous closed low over the central Rockies.
(This evening through Wednesday) The main weather tonight and tomorrow will be the cold front that will move into northwest Oklahoma tonight around 07Z and move through all but perhaps the far southeast counties by 21/00Z.
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Upper ridge slowly flattens through the short-term forecast period in response to the closed upper low shifting east across the northern plains into the Great Lakes.
Otherwise, upper level ridge builds tonight into Wednesday to bring continued dry weather with mainly sunny skies.