Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As high pressure currently over the Gulf Coast continues to pivot eastward tonight through Monday and strengthens, breezes will freshen.
High pressure and dry air leads to a continuation of VFR conditions across the aerodromes. /issued 318 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure will nose east over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of a deep mid-level trough slowly moving off the Eastern Seaboard.
Increasing mid- level heights from the approaching ridge will start a warming trend across the area tomorrow.
310 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 Low pressure has brought wet snow to the upper Ohio Valley for the late afternoon and evening.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure reigns supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region last night into this morning.
The associated cold front stretches from IN to West TN and will progress E through the region late this afternoon and evening. VFR will continue through the period, but a cold front moving through tonight will bring some scattered to broken 4000-5000 foot cigs to TRI. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 55 39 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 51 38 61 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 51 36 60 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 46 32 58 42 / 10 0 0 0 0.
222 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 Blustery winds will subside this evening as high pressure moves into the region.
Highs in the low to mid 30s will dominate the NE half of the area as weak CAA and stratus continue, while the W/SW has already begun to see weak WAA, signaling the beginning of our brief warmup this week. A warm front will begin to lift through the state from SW to NE tonight into Monday, on its way into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
236 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 1915Z temperatures are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday at this same time, thanks to an early day cold front. Breezy northeasterly winds that accompanied the FROPA have already weakened and shifted easterly as progressive surface ridging traverses the region.
High pressure over the Gulf States will start to build more solidly over the Tennessee Valley this evening, decreasing wind and setting up another cool night tonight. Temperatures will again drop into the low 30s, though probably a couple degrees warmer than we saw this morning due to us getting warmer during the day today.
There is a small chance that some freezing drizzle could mix in at times, but for now kept the mention of that out of the forecast weather grids. Any snow accumulation would be light, less than a half an inch, but it could be enough to cause travel impacts for the Monday morning commute with air temperatures below freezing.
1039 AM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Remnant AR moisture is riding down the backside of the Western States ridge toward the Central Rockies early this morning. This more stable pattern will bring an end to any flurry threat and set up some warmer conditions ahead of the next approaching trough due after the short term period.
High pressure will deliver mild temperatures and light winds through Monday.
Dry conditions will persist for the next few days as high pressure takes over. Tomorrow's highs will be right around the same as we have seen today, but as the high pressure slides east of the mid- state and southwest flow takes over, look for temperatures to climb.
A longwave midlevel trough continues to progress eastward across the eastern US with persistent northwest flow across the central Plains. Transitioning into the work week, sunny skies should return to the area as the eastern trough and western ridge shift eastward.
336 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 A cold front will pass through the region tonight, followed by high pressure through mid week.
Dry and mild weather conditions continue today with high pressure in control.
An upper level trough will continue to move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic states and Ohio Valley region tonight before eventually shifting across the northeastern U. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s along and north of the I-10 corridor, while readings along the coast should range in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs Monday should be slightly warmer with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region.
402 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Northwest flow aloft continues this evening before ridging develops overnight. The ridge building overnight into Monday will increase heights and lead to a relatively mild morning and day. Recent high- resolution models show a bit more cloud cover and slightly reduced amplitude for this ridge compared to previous model runs, but the current forecast still calls for temperatures around 15 degrees above normal, which equates to low to mid 60s east of the Divide, and mid to upper 50s west of the Divide.
422 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Scattered showers along the front, with -ra/-sn mix in the higher elevation of the Black Hills. Flat ridge builds across the Northern Plains Monday with robust low level warm advection.
Early in the week a weak warm front moves across the Upper Midwest bringing a low chance for some light rain/snow and slightly above normal temperatures.
516 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. A warming trend will begin Monday due to upper level height rises, relatively strong low-mid level warm air advection, and as the wind shifts to a south-southwest direction after passage of a warm front as well as strengthens. Precipitation associated with the warm air advection and warm front should remain northeast of our forecast area on Monday, although could not rule out sprinkles from mid level cloudiness in west central and southwest IL late Monday morning and early Monday afternoon.
Since temperatures look to fall several degrees below current dewpoints, patchy fog is a good bet areawide overnight especially near our relatively warmer rivers and lakes. A dry cold front is making its way across Middle Tennessee this evening, with only some mid and high-level clouds to show for it.
627 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 The upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Deep South continues to move eastward as high cirrus clouds are streaming from the Yucatan Channel, in the SW flow aloft overhead.
Possible chance of some freezing drizzle from Devils Lake toward the Valley City region before a full transition over to light snow.
811 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 A weak but dry cold front crosses our area this evening with cooler temperatures settling in for the near term.
631 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 Low pressure has brought wet snow to the upper Ohio Valley for the evening.
An upper-level trough is moving through the Quad State today. The arrival of cold air from the northwest will drive lows down to near or below freezing, with the coldest temperatures in the mid- 20s for the Evansville Tri-State. However, precipitation is expected to pass by north of the Quad State as the lifting trough shifts the upper-level storm track northward.
522 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 (This evening through Monday) High pressure reigns supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region last night into this morning.
800 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 The only change to the previous forecast was the lower the MinT a few degrees across the Florida big bend where NBM seems to run a few degrees too warm in the rural areas on good radiational cooling nights.
High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to middle 30s.
On Monday, the lower troposphere will be much warmer thanks to the persistent downslope flow off the Rockies eradicating the remnant cool airmass. Thus, Monday afternoon we are looking at highs some 15 to perhaps 20 degrees warmer than this afternoon. The MSLP gradient will not be that great with only a very weak leeside trough across eastern Colorado, so wind speeds in the afternoon will generally be 10 mph or less.
An area of WAA precipitation associated with an elongated area of low pressure west of the region has already developed over northeastern Montana, and is expected to develop further southward before it begins to track eastward tonight. Will see upper ridging build over the area on Monday, with a good push of warm air at the surface as the low pressure trough to the west intensifies and digs southward along the lee of the Rockies.
Strong high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal through Monday with lower desert highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
/issued 212 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ A cold front has pushed through the entire forecast area as of 2PM.
The region remains under general, broad troughing aloft. At the surface, high pressure is generally centered along the northern Gulf Coast. A low pressure system that is traversing the Great Lakes region will drag a weak front through our region. High pressure will once again slide back into the region at the surface. Overnight lows will not be as cold tonight with readings dipping into the mid to upper 30s in the northeast to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid/upper 60s in the northeast to the lower 70s in the southwest.
High pressure continues to influence our wx with shifting winds generally 5kt or less overnight will initially be SE in the morning then shifting back to SW 5-15KT for the day with increasing high clouds and some scattered low clouds.
209 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Strong high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal through Monday with lower desert highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
533 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 Blustery winds will subside this evening as high pressure moves into the region.
823 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 The cold front that passed through this afternoon has pushed east of the forecast area this evening allowing for high pressure to move in. As a result, temperatures have begun to plunge down into the lower 40s across northeast AL and upper 40s farther west where winds are still 5 to 7 knots out of the northwest.
240 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Northwest flow aloft around a ridge over the Great Basin brought windy conditions to the higher foothills and Front Range mountains. This ridge will flatten and shift east over Colorado for Monday. With weakening flow aloft, don't expect it to be as windy tonight in the higher foothills and mountains, but gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
Vertical x-sections continue to show 50 to 60 knot flow in the lowest 2k feet AGL with a pronounced stable layer at mountain top.
Dry weather with above normal temperatures continues through Monday with breezier conditions ahead of a cold front.
(18Z TAFS) Cold front along a San Angelo to Brownwood line at 17Z will move slowly south along I-10 by late afternoon, with winds shifting to the north at 5 to 12 KTS.
/issued 236 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ 1915Z temperatures are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday at this same time, thanks to an early day cold front. Breezy northeasterly winds that accompanied the FROPA have already weakened and shifted easterly as progressive surface ridging traverses the region.
448 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Northwest flow aloft around a ridge over the Great Basin brought windy conditions to the higher foothills and Front Range mountains. This ridge will flatten and shift east over Colorado for Monday. With weakening flow aloft, don't expect it to be as windy tonight in the higher foothills and mountains, but gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
224 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure over the western states will continue to guide mid and high level moisture through the area. H5 flow shifts to the west on Monday with dry and warmer conditions.
359 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure over the western states will continue to guide mid and high level moisture through the area. H5 flow shifts to the west on Monday with dry and warmer conditions.
1038 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Northwest flow aloft continues this evening before ridging develops overnight. The ridge building overnight into Monday will increase heights and lead to a relatively mild morning and day. Recent high- resolution models show a bit more cloud cover and slightly reduced amplitude for this ridge compared to previous model runs, but the current forecast still calls for temperatures around 15 degrees above normal, which equates to low to mid 60s east of the Divide, and mid to upper 50s west of the Divide.
Northwest flow aloft around a ridge over the Great Basin brought windy conditions to the higher foothills and Front Range mountains. This ridge will flatten and shift east over Colorado for Monday. With weakening flow aloft, don't expect it to be as windy tonight in the higher foothills and mountains, but gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
1001 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 A cold front will pass through the region tonight, followed by high pressure through mid week.
These winds will gradually subside overnight, as a 925mb height ridge axis rotates through. Expect prime radiational cooling conditions toward sunrise, as a 925mb ridge axis rotates through. /issued 212 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ A cold front has pushed through the entire forecast area as of 2PM.
Dry and cool conditions for the short term period Discussion: Heights will begin to rise as the upper trough over the eastern US lifts northeast.
953 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 Current surface map places warm front across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Scattered showers along the front, with -ra/-sn mix in the higher elevation of the Black Hills. Flat ridge builds across the Northern Plains Monday with robust low level warm advection.
1014 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021 High pressure over the western states will continue to guide mid and high level moisture through the area. H5 flow shifts to the west on Monday with dry and warmer conditions.
High pressure holding over the desert southwest will keep unseasonably warm temperatures with near daily records today.
Aforementioned upper trough will shift east and support a strong cold front into the area Tues, with warning level winds looking likely across far NW SD Tues, lasting into Wed after a brief lull Wed night. Most other places on the SD plains will see at least adv levels, with warning levels possible for small window on the plains east of the BH Tue with the cold front, and again Wed afternoon with a secondary cold front.
146 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 A weak but dry cold front crosses our area this evening with cooler temperatures settling in for the near term.
Since temperatures look to fall several degrees below current dewpoints, patchy fog is a good bet areawide overnight especially near our relatively warmer rivers and lakes. Cold front has entirely cleared the mid state, so we are left with only some cirrus clouds.
Given the good radiational cooling conditions for the rest of the early morning, still expect lows to drop into the 25 to 30 degree range for most spots, although the coolest areas will drop more into the lower 20s. Across our SW, skies will clear early enough for some afternoon heating and temps rising to the low 50s.
934 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 Blustery winds will subside this evening as high pressure moves into the region.
The cold front that passed through this afternoon has pushed east of the forecast area this evening allowing for high pressure to move in. As a result, temperatures have begun to plunge down into the lower 40s across northeast AL and upper 40s farther west where winds are still 5 to 7 knots out of the northwest.
High pressure will deliver mild temperatures today.
300 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Cold front has worked its way through the area, and temps will be a little cooler today as a result.
330 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 Discussion/Marine --Quieter Pattern Moving In-- Upper trough lifts out today with flatter/more zonal flow aloft to follow for a couple days. Next trough and more amplified pattern approaches toward mid week, bringing a brief period of mild air and rain showers followed by another cool down. Can't rule out some patches of black ice this morning with temps near freezing and moisture from recent snow/rain still leftover on the roads. Expect considerable stratus/stratocumulus clouds to blanket the region today with -8C H8 thermal trough overhead and continued flow off the lake.
/NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ Yesterday's weak cold front has stalled across Central Texas, with a 20+ degree dewpoint gradient and 15 degree temperature gradient present across the boundary. This stalled front will lift back northward as a warm front today as modest southerly low- level flow becomes reestablished.
103 AM MST Mon Nov 15 2021 Strong high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal today with lower desert highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
239 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 08Z water vapor imagery shows broad upper level ridging over the western half of the U. A closed upper low was noted over the gulf of Alaska. Surface observations had high pressure over the mouth of the MS River while a trough of low pressure extended from the northern high plains into the middle MO river valley.
With passage of the warm front, winds will veer to the south to southwest, ushering in decent low level WAA. Despite southerly flow in the low levels, moisture will remain limited, but could see a few sprinkles out of a mid cloud deck that develops north of the warm front today. Highs will range from the low 50s in the far eastern portions of the forecast area to mid 60s over central Missouri.
1023 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. A warming trend will begin Monday due to upper level height rises, relatively strong low-mid level warm air advection, and as the wind shifts to a south-southwest direction after passage of a warm front as well as strengthens. Precipitation associated with the warm air advection and warm front should remain northeast of our forecast area on Monday, although could not rule out sprinkles from mid level cloudiness in west central and southwest IL late Monday morning and early Monday afternoon.
Upper level northwesterly flow over the central High Plains will become more westerly through tonight as a broad upper level ridge builds eastward over the central and northern Plains. In the lower levels, downslope flow from the eastern slopes of the Rockies continues to spread east across western and central Kansas overnight. With continued southwest winds at the surface overnight, low temperatures should only fall into the low to mid 40s or some ten degrees above normal.
Chances for precipitation begin as snow, with some areas of patchy freezing drizzle possible.
Weak high pressure will then pass south of the area on Monday. Lows will bottom out in the mid 20s near/west of I-75 to the lower 30s in central OH. Highs will range from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 30s.
A cold front continues to march across southeast KY into southwest VA and northeast TN at this time as the upper trough axis pivots atop the Southern Appalachians. Likewise, also seeing some weak radar echoes in association with the intruding frontal convergence axis which will favor some light drizzle across portions of extreme northeast TN and southwest VA, as well as a few flurries or light snow showers at the higher elevations (above roughly 2kft) of those same regions, with no accumulations expected. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 40 65 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 39 61 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 37 60 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 31 57 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0.
A strong cold front is still expected to move into eastern Oregon Monday afternoon/evening and then into southwest Idaho overnight. Mid-level and high-level clouds are filtering into the region ahead of precipitation with a cold frontal passage on Monday evening.
/Today through Sunday/ Key Messages: -Warm front bisects the state this afternoon with a 20+ degree range in afternoon high temperatures likely.
100 AM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 A cold front will pass through the region tonight, followed by high pressure through mid week.
This flow continues to pump in cooler and drier air across the Keys. Despite an upper long wave trough remaining over the eastern United States with a southern stream trough lagging over the western Gulf of Mexico, the cooler post cold front air mass has stabilized conditions in the Keys. While the robust southwesterlies aloft continue to throw thick sheets of cirrus our way, this evenings sounding indicated considerable drying through the lower levels with a hefty subsidence inversion based between 900 and 850 mb. High pressure consolidating over the southeastern United States will be responsible for moderate northerly breezes across Keys waters overnight.
Today, across the region, should bring partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. At one point it appeared that the precipitation that fell would be either a mixed precip or freezing rain. With the shallow depth of the moisture and cold surface temperatures, precipitation could initially fall as freezing drizzle. Additionally, this will provide northwest/west flow aloft for the Northland giving several chances of precipitation as upper level disturbances circulate around the low pressure system. KBRD has a shot at some IFR ceilings as a warm front approaches especially later Monday as some of the precip skirts the area.
A warm front has already moved through the forecast area already this morning. Expect the cirrus to allow sunshine to get through and with west winds, the temperatures will reach into the lower 70s this afternoon. On Tuesday, the warm advection will continue and even warmer temperatures are expected. As a cold front moves into the area later in the afternoon and during the evening, winds will turn more toward the northwest and increase further.
352 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Low amplitude ridging will move across the Rockies into the Plains today. As this occurs, the next sharp short wave trough will move onshore from the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. As a result, surface lee troughing will develop in eastern New Mexico. This pressure trough is not expected to be strong, so surface winds will be relatively light today.
Highs will climb into the low to even the mid 80s.
Recent mesoanalysis indicated a large region of high pressure across the Mid-South, w/ the prior day's cold frnt draped over the Gulf Coast region. Through the end of the PD, persistent S/Wrly flow under a building H500 ridge wl cont to support warming max/min temps w/ highs topping out in the mid 70s across the state Tues afternoon, and lows only dipping into the 50s at most locations.
West to northwest winds aloft increase overnight as a dry upper- level trough approaches from the northwest.
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad upper level ridging over the western half of the U. A closed upper low was noted over the gulf of Alaska. Surface observations had high pressure over the mouth of the MS River while a trough of low pressure extended from the northern high plains into the middle MO river valley. Southerly low level winds are forecast to advect warmer air into the region. By Tuesday most areas should see afternoon temps in the lower 70s as 925MB temps warm to around +18C.
Another cool night will be in store for us, as clear skies lead to temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
There remains a possibility of a light mist/freezing drizzle on the back side of this snow band. Temps will slowly climb reaching 28-32 today, though a bit warmer in the far SW fcst area. then warmer air moves in Tuesday but winds will remain south to southeast Tuesday so warming may be regulated to when the winds shift to the southwest just prior to cold front passage.