Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a weakening cold front Labor Day, impacting locations mainly north and west of Pittsburgh. Clouds will again increase late tonight to the northwest as thunderstorm complex along a weakening sfc cold front approaches the area. Hi-res modeling has become more bullish on a thunderstorm complex dropping out of the Great Lake into areas north/west of Pittsburgh late Monday morning along a weakening cold front.
346 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will weaken offshore through Labor Day along with easing northeast wind. Increasing humidity and rain chances can be expected mid-week as a warm front approaches the southeastern US coastline. Latest sfc analysis shows 1023 mb high pressure just off the DELMARVA with a stationary frontal boundary positioned well offshore. Atlantic moisture transport then increases Mon night as high pressure strengthens to the N, so have introduced a slight chance of showers near the coast.
Another warm day on Monday but not quite as warm as a strong cold front will begin its plunge south across the CWA during the afternoon.
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
Speeds > 8 mph early tomorrow AM will keep morning lows at least as warm as this morning if not 1-2 degrees warmer.
While we can't entirely rule out a shower or two popping up along the sea breeze (as is always the case around here), in general most should see sunny skies and a bit of that "dry heat" folks out west are always raving about as dewpoints hold steady in the low 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70 along the coast (maybe a few degrees higher with the sea breeze passage). The upper ridge over the northern Gulf shifts south a bit as weak troughing lingers over the mid-Atlantic states down into the southern Appalachians and southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure continues to build east into the same region mentioned above, which shifts low-level winds locally to more easterly.
359 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight. As a short wave in the upper Midwest tracks east overnight, it will cause a cold front to move towards the area late. Temperatures will vary from the lower 80s in the northwest to upper 80s in the southeast on Monday.
A few thunderstorms will develop across the north late tonight as a warm front develops into the southern Great Lakes. Additional thunderstorms will develop Monday as a cold front moves into the area during the day and then lifts back north Monday night. Highs will likely end up a bit warmer than yesterday in southeast counties where clouds are thinner and a few degrees cooler than yesterday in the northwest where clouds are a little thicker. Southerly flow and clouds will result in warmer temperatures with lows from near 60 southeast to the upper 60s northwest. Surface cold front to drop into Ohio at the south edge of westerly mid level flow and stall out Monday. A surface front associated with a deepening cyclone in southeastern Canada will be in the proximity of the Ohio Valley on Monday night.
Overnight will be a few degrees warmer tonight in the low to mid 60s with a few places seeing upper 50s especially at higher elevations. The dome of high pressure that has been locked over the southeast the past few days will slowly shift eastward to start the work week due to a deepening cyclone digging in across the Rockies. As a result, the low level flow becomes more southeasterly, which will allow for better moisture return.
Then later tonight, a secondary cold front will move south into the state. Highs on Monday will only be in the upper 40s southwest to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.
This is in response to a rather strong early-season cold front that will serve to bring a colder than average air mass into the region. Near freezing temperatures are expected Monday night for northern and western portions of the Devils Lake Basin, with middle to upper 30s elsewhere.
Monday keeps enough elevated moisture for isolated convection across the region while temperatures will rise into the low 90s for most.
Mid-level ridging will nudge in from the gulf which should help suppress activity, but we will still be influenced by a few vort max lobes. 0 inches again for Labor Day, will maintain thermally driven isolated showers and possible thunderstorms despite weak ridging. Temperatures tonight should again drop into the low to mid 70s, with near 80 degrees along the immediate coast. Highs for Labor Day should warm into the lower 90s. Moisture is expected to gradually increase through Monday night, so have trended with slightly warmer overnight lows.
Coverage of showers and storms is forecast to increase through the afternoon hours across the area as ridging aloft weakens and northeasterly low level flow increases. High temperatures will be much lower today behind the frontal boundary and due to the onshore flow, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across interior southeast Georgia and coastal areas, and the lower 90s across interior northeast Florida.
211 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will bring chances for showers and storms tonight into Monday.
Slightly cooler air will filter into much of western Kansas resulting in widespread lows in the 60s(F) by early Monday morning. The stalled frontal boundary will ever so slightly lift back to the north Monday ahead of an approaching stronger cold front.
317 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will slowly drop south towards the I-70 corridor overnight as upper level energy sweeps across the Great Lakes. That cold front will then hang up around I-70 for Labor Day. We went around the 90th percentile of model guidance for highs with southwest flow in the low-levels and 850 mb temperatures of 19-21 Celsius.
The most significant event that will occur throughout the entire forecast period will be the mid-week passage of a cold front.
The cold front is still on track to impact the Northern Rockies later tonight through Monday. The strongest winds are still anticipated to be along the Highway 93 corridor from Eureka to Polson.
145 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Canadian high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Labor Day. Water vapor satellite showed a weak upper-level trough moving across the Appalachians into central NC, and an upper-level ridge across the western Atlantic. Lower heights and northeasterly flow will maintain the "cooler" airmass across the region today, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and highs in the low to mid 80s. The upper-level trough will quickly eject northeast early on Labor Day, then heights build aloft throughout the day as upper-level high pressure approaches from the east. This will help keep central NC dry one more day, and the approaching ridge will raise highs a few degrees, with most areas reaching the mid- 80s.
Strong high pressure will bring hotter temperatures through the Labor Day holiday weekend, with record highs possible today and Monday.
349 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 One cold front has pushed through the region earlier this morning with gusty northwesterly winds over much to the CWA. A secondary cold front will sweep through the CWA later this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the upper 40s, to the low 50s. Favorable upslope flow into the higher terrain areas in western SD should receive the brunt of the pcpn.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 89 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 61 89 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 86 60 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 10.
305 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Tonight and Tomorrow: A near record 600dam H5 ridge will remain in place across the Great Basin through tonight while strong Pacific jet energy dives through British Columbia. Heading into the day tomorrow, the Great Basin upper ridge is progged to break down and retrograde as the Pacific jet begins to carve out a digging and amplifying mid-tropospheric trough over the Northern Rockies. Dry air, cloud free skies and calm winds will result in efficient radiational cooling tonight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s area wide.
722 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight. As a short wave in the upper Midwest tracks east overnight, it will cause a cold front to move towards the area late. Temperatures will vary from the lower 80s in the northwest to upper 80s in the southeast on Monday.
921 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight. Some mid level energy will work across the southern Great Lakes tonight as an associated weak cold front drops down toward our area from the northwest. Lows tonight will be mainly in the low to mid 60s with perhaps upper 60s across our far northwest where winds should stay up a bit more overnight. Temperatures will vary from the lower 80s in the northwest to upper 80s in the southeast on Monday.
644 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just off to our northwest on Monday, kicking off some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the northwest mountains.
/issued 149 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020/ An upper low is in place just to the south of the area today as weak high pressure ridges across the area at the surface. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s near the coast. The upper low gradually lifts north over the state through mid- week before washing out and ridging building in from the Atlantic, while generally easterly flow remains in place at the surface, with a weak trough moving in along the Carolinas coast region.
19z sfc analysis shows high pressure sliding east of Kentucky but not before giving us one more comfortable and pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Temperatures are peaking in the low 80s most places while dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s. This takes place starting Monday when a strong trough digs into the Bitterroots and extends the influence of the large mid level gyre over much of Canada and northern 1/4 of the US.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: A near record 600dam H5 ridge will remain in place across the Great Basin through tonight while strong Pacific jet energy dives through British Columbia. Heading into the day tomorrow, the Great Basin upper ridge is progged to break down and retrograde as the Pacific jet begins to carve out a digging and amplifying mid-tropospheric trough over the Northern Rockies. Dry air, cloud free skies and calm winds will result in efficient radiational cooling tonight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s area wide.
This has placed the Keys near the axis of the lower level trough and broad surface reflection. Short Term Update - The TUTT cell is in the process of being bled out by a passing mid latitude low and will be a much weaker elongated trough by morning. However, what troughing remains will remain in place through a deep layer. A broad trough aligned across the Keys will result in light to gentle northeast to east breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Strong high pressure over the NE Pacific is supporting record heat across the interior valleys of northwest California this afternoon, with Ukiah reporting a temperature of 113 degrees and several Lake County locations hovering around 110 as of this writing. While today may prove to be the hottest day of the week, Monday may come close as high pressure continues to dominate the region.
Dangerous conditions due to heat exposure are likely in the lower elevations through Monday and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect.
On Labor Day ample moisture combined with the sea breezes and a weakening upper level low lifting north from the Caribbean over Florida will support increasing rain chances across the forecast area with numerous to widespread showers and scattered storms expected during the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure north of the waters and an area of low pressure to the south will maintain light northeast to east winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight into Labor Day with a weak pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing near the coast each afternoon.
530 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Water vapor shows short wave trof shifting eastward across SASK/Manitoba, with west/northwest flow across the northern tier. Upper ridge is along and just offshore the west coast and building northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Cold front has shifted well south/east of our region with breezy northerly winds and cooler air filtering in. Upper ridge along and offshore the west coat will continue to build northward through the Gulf of Alaska as an anomalously deep upper trough develops over the central CONUS the next few days. For tonight, jet streak dives quickly through ND into the upper midwest, driving a secondary cold front through the Northern Plains.
715 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Canadian high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Labor Day. Water vapor satellite showed a weak upper-level trough moving across the Appalachians into central NC, and an upper-level ridge across the western Atlantic. Lower heights and northeasterly flow will maintain the "cooler" airmass across the region today, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and highs in the low to mid 80s. The upper-level trough will quickly eject northeast early on Labor Day, then heights build aloft throughout the day as upper-level high pressure approaches from the east. This will help keep central NC dry one more day, and the approaching ridge will raise highs a few degrees, with most areas reaching the mid- 80s.
A cold front will try to make its way south through the Midwest later tonight and early on Labor Day, before stalling out as mid level flow becomes more wswly.
Light showers and sprinkles over the Opheim Plateau and the far northeastern portions of the state will continue under northwesterly flow for a little while longer before the next major wave associated with a cold front out of Canada dips into eastern Montana this evening.
The upper ridge over the northern Gulf shifts south a bit as weak troughing lingers over the mid-Atlantic states down into the southern Appalachians and southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure continues to build east into the same region mentioned above, which shifts low-level winds locally to more easterly.
633 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will slowly drop south towards the I-70 corridor overnight as upper level energy sweeps across the Great Lakes. That cold front will then hang up around I-70 for Labor Day. We went around the 90th percentile of model guidance for highs with southwest flow in the low-levels and 850 mb temperatures of 19-21 Celsius.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge has retrograded west a bit over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over srn NV.
627 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
752 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will weaken offshore through Labor Day along with easing northeast wind. Increasing humidity and rain chances can be expected mid-week as a warm front approaches the southeastern US coastline. Latest sfc analysis shows 1023 mb high pressure just off the DELMARVA with a stationary frontal boundary positioned well offshore. Atlantic moisture transport then increases Mon night as high pressure strengthens to the N, so have introduced a slight chance of showers near the coast.
Smoke and haze has made its way into our region again, but a shift in the wind direction from Monday eveningâs cold front should help clear it out.
755 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will weaken offshore through Labor Day along with easing northeast wind. Increasing humidity and rain chances can be expected mid-week as a warm front approaches the southeastern US coastline. Latest sfc analysis shows 1023 mb high pressure just off the DELMARVA with a stationary frontal boundary positioned well offshore. Atlantic moisture transport then increases Mon night as high pressure strengthens to the N, so have introduced a slight chance of showers near the coast.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. We'll have another dry day tomorrow for Labor day, with highs in the lower 90s, and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
945 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Canadian high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Labor Day. Strong subsidence and drying is evident in water vapor and the 00Z GSO raob this evening in the wake of the upper trough earlier today. The upper-level trough will quickly eject northeast early on Labor Day, then heights build aloft throughout the day as upper-level high pressure approaches from the east. This will help keep central NC dry one more day, and the approaching ridge will raise highs a few degrees, with most areas reaching the mid- 80s.
Second cold front in two days has worked through most of the area already this evening with Livingston's winds recently shifting to the east indicating fropa there.
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 Dry conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure ridging into region.
A cold front will move through this evening, turning wind a little more to the northeast and increasing humidity some. The lower elevations will will this remain as rain through the day tomorrow with the possibility of some snow mixing with the rain tomorrow night.
Under clear skies and a near calm wind, temperatures have cooled into the lower 70s already at many locations. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: A near record 600dam H5 ridge will remain in place across the Great Basin through tonight while strong Pacific jet energy dives through British Columbia. Heading into the day tomorrow, the Great Basin upper ridge is progged to break down and retrograde as the Pacific jet begins to carve out a digging and amplifying mid-tropospheric trough over the Northern Rockies. Dry air, cloud free skies and calm winds will result in efficient radiational cooling tonight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s area wide.
Gradual warming will continue tomorrow as the upper trough lifts northward and southerly winds increase.
312 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020 The ridge of high pressure over the western states will dominate the weather pattern through Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten gradually through the period as a broad trough moves south over the Rockies. Conditions will deteriorate by Monday night as the associated cold front drops south into northwestern Colorado and northeast Utah.
940 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just to our northwest on Monday, kicking off some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the northwest mountains.
Eventually though, most if not all the smoke should be scoured from our area as a strong east wind event sets up as a trough deepens over southern Idaho.
Temperatures will be a tad warmer than last night but still be cool in the lower 60s. The dome of high pressure that has been locked over the southeast the past few days will slowly shift eastward to start the work week due to a deepening cyclone digging in across the Rockies. As a result, the low level flow becomes more southeasterly, which will allow for better moisture return.
One cold front has pushed through the region earlier this morning with gusty northwesterly winds over much to the CWA. A secondary cold front will sweep through the CWA later this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the upper 40s, to the low 50s. Favorable upslope flow into the higher terrain areas in western SD should receive the brunt of the pcpn.
Smoke continues to be a problem as we await the strong winds that will accompany tomorrow's cold front. This front should clear out the vast majority of the smoke as it brings in much cooler air. Winds becoming west-northwest 15-25 kts after 07/15z, increasing to 25-40 kts with local gusts to around 50 kts after 07/20z following a cold front.
621 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 One cold front has pushed through the region earlier this morning with gusty northwesterly winds over much to the CWA. A secondary cold front will sweep through the CWA later this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the upper 40s, to the low 50s. Favorable upslope flow into the higher terrain areas in western SD should receive the brunt of the pcpn.
Used GLAMP diurnal curves and reworked the overnight slide into the the lows. Light showers and sprinkles over the Opheim Plateau and the far northeastern portions of the state will continue under northwesterly flow for a little while longer before the next major wave associated with a cold front out of Canada dips into eastern Montana this evening.
355 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 A cold front will bring chances for showers overnight, possibly a thunderstorm or two. Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures for the middle of the week.
But until this deep trough dissipates, pockets of higher moisture combined with occasional lobes of mid level vorticity rotating through will provide ascent will result in intermittent showers and thunderstorms through this period. Despite no distinct low level undulations or large scale lift, the deep western Atlantic anticyclone will remain well northeast of of region. Away from showers, thunderstorms and possible waterspouts today, gentle to moderate breezes with the highest winds on the Straits of Florida today.
1134 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A weak and dying cold frontal boundary will be just to our northwest on Monday, kicking off some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the northwest mountains.
This area of rain was forming along a strengthening mid-level frontogenetic impulse, and in combination of upslope flow along the higher terrain of the Northern Plains. Although I can't guarantee timing on the next chance of widespread precipitation chances, I can see that there will be period of heavy rainfall once the low moves closer to our region late in the week, and into the weekend.
Tuesday, an upper low gets cut off over the Four Corners area and as the models want to trend a slow progression of this low and its associated cold front, ahead of it, rain chances increase Tuesday afternoon.
One cold front has pushed through the region earlier this morning with gusty northwesterly winds over much to the CWA. A secondary cold front will sweep through the CWA later this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the upper 40s, to the low 50s. Favorable upslope flow into the higher terrain areas in western SD should receive the brunt of the pcpn. The low stratus, mid level clouds, along with caa mixed layer cu clouds will be leaving/dissipating into the evening hours Tuesday.
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure continues over the area this morning.
448 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 High pressure will remain along the New England coast through mid week.
1138 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 A cold front will slowly drop south towards the I-70 corridor overnight as upper level energy sweeps across the Great Lakes. That cold front will then hang up around I-70 for Labor Day. We went around the 90th percentile of model guidance for highs with southwest flow in the low-levels and 850 mb temperatures of 19-21 Celsius. The western extent of that surface front will plunge south across the Plains as a cold front starting on Tuesday as strong upper level energy digs into the Four Corners region and closes off.