Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW OF 10-15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MICHIGAN WILL HOLD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ON AVG. MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLE. DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA, IT WILL STILL BE HOT ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, CREATING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.
AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS SWINGING THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. CAUSING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO NORTHERN WI. SHOWERS SHOULD END OVER FAR NE WI AS THE S/W TROF EXITS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
358 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY. PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BRINGING A BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL SURGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE TN VALLEY IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER TO THE EASTERN U. A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO DROP BUT TEMPS TO STAY HIGH.
231 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST. WITH A DEEPER THAN NORMAL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE NT. MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE. AS SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. EXPECTED POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH COMBINED WITH BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THU/FRI. WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SFC PATTERN IS VERY WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT 08Z TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE EASTERLY AND FLATTENING IT CREATING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
447 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
343 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM.
EXTREME INSTABILITY /CAPES UPWARDS TO AROUND 5000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS HEAT INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS H70 TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
DOMINANT H5 RIDGE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS. 0 INCH AND RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR UNDER THE RIDGE.
ESSENTIALLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS SUMMER TIME SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HEAT IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR GOOD LAPSE RATES WITH UPPER 20 VERTICAL TOTALS.
142 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DRIVE COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SCT COVERAGE OVER NERN CO. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO FORECAST A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT FEATURES AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH COLORADO UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
340 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER H85 TEMPS TO PREVAIL AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH, BUT A FEW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OR CREEP TOWARD THE SW TX PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY ON THU AS A WEAK SHRTWV RIDES THE RIDGE. LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE SCOOTS EAST HEIGHTS WILL FALL ENOUGH AND H85 TEMPS SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES. RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW INCREASES A BIT AS FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN W/SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. NLISTEMAA WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST WITH AXIS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AGAIN LINGER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WEAK WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI- PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
with near persistence conditions as upper level high pressure centers over Texas.
258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN REVEALS RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND TO EASTERN NEB. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH RAINFALL CHANCES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NM AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY LATE MORNING THEN ADVANCE EAST ALONG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
CAMS LIKE THE 4 KM NAM AND NMM SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL TROUGH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES (30-40 PERCENT) AND LOWER SOUTH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. LEE SIDE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH A WEAK IMPULSE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR OVER SE WY. WEAK POS THETA-E ADV REGIME WITH A NOTED LL TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A SHRA TS ACROSS NE WY AND POSSIBLY INTO NW SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THE PINE RIDGE ACROSS NE.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH. CLOSEST TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN YESTERDAY ON THE IDAHO SIDE. AND REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN WESTERN IDAHO AT THAT TIME.
THE AREA IS ALREADY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN KEEPING THE AREA WARM AND DRIER HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WERE ACTING ON A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY WITH OFF LAKE WINDS DEVELOPING. AREAS AROUND THE LAKE WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR IN AN EASTERLY WIND REGIME.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS NOT GETTING A CHANCE TO AMPLIFY. WITH A TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS. SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. BUT THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN POST 00Z THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AND WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW AREAS ACROSS FAR SRN AREAS MAY HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH INTO TO THE LOWER 100S. CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER.
RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE HAVING INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN. WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.
HOWEVER LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE ONGOING STORMS/LIMITED INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW/MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
325 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STATIONED OVER TEXAS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETREAT A BIT WEST TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN A MAINSTAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR WEEKS IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING NOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC REGIME IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSISTENT AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE CENTER TO EDGE A BIT BACK TO THE EAST.
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted slightly east over the last 24 hours, but remains centered over the Texas South Plains. W/a modest cap in place, and the theta-e ridge well west into New Mexico, vis sat imagery shows even cu having a hard time developing this afternoon. Instead, widespread triple-digit temps are expected across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, w/similar conditions Tuesday before thicknesses fall as the ridge shifts east to the ArklaTex Tuesday night in response to a trough deepening along the west coast. Forecast soundings, 850mb temp fields, and model performance over the past few days suggest staying toward the cooler end of guidance, but this will still yield temps well-abv normal.
RODRIGUEZ 240 PM CDT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WHILE UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 LAKESHORE AREAS WILL BE HELD TO THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA.
COLD FRONT RUSHING THROUGH MONTANA. IT MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO GET TO THE FIRES THIS AFTERNOON SO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE CLEANER. A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MIDDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO THE COLD FRONT MAY JUST USHER IN ADDITIONAL SMOKE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
IN FACT, SEVERAL MID AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
921 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME HIGH 40'S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL SHOULD REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
951 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
INCREASED RIDGING SHOULD START LIMITING OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES TO ISO SEABREEZE TYPE COVERAGE LATE SAT-MON. RIDGE BUILDS NWD THRU THE ROCKIES ALLOWING TROF TO DIG ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 60S.
STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING NORTHERN WY WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 MILLIBARS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER ID THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING PATTERN HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD OVER FROM FAR SRN BC. HRRR/RAP SUGGEST A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER SCNTRL SD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF/DRYLINE. WITH COLD FRONT BLASTING THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF OUR ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. A 700MB TROF ROTATING THROUGH IN THE AFTN WILL KEEP THE STRONG WINDS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS GOING INTO THE EARLY EVE. WITH SOME HIGHER VALLEYS IN THE BLKHLS POSSIBLE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING TEMPS.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR, AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KLWT BY 02Z, KHLN BY 04Z, AND KBZN (IN A WEAKENED FORM) BY 06Z. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN WESTERN MT WITH HUMIDITIES ALREADY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QUITE POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AREA BEING UNDER LESS INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF WHILE RIDGING ALOFT HAS BEGUN TO SLIDE A BIT WWD WITH TIME. JUST TO BE SAFE HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/4. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE C AND E U. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER 90S. BUT WITH THE LOWER DEWPTS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE SATURATION IS MORE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED NR THE INTL BORDER. THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS LOW. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN CLOUDS AND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN/KY/OH BORDER THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY SAT. LOWS OVERNIGHT OF 55- 60F WITH COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN IL CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
639 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
IN THE S TN LOCATIONS, KFYM AND KBGF ARE REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
708 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
927 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE RESOLVING MODELS SUGGEST THE STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, EXPECT LOWS TO BE MUCH WARMER THAT RECENT NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG CAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE AND COLD FRONT AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH OVERSPREADS EASTERN KS THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CAUSE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
946 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 88 68 87 / 10 10 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 85 66 85 / 10 10 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 86 65 85 / 0 10 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 84 62 85 / 10 10 10 30.
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THOUGH HAS LEFT A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE STATE AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT WHILE GREATER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
1241 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
1041 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORM OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ON THE MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
BUT DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AS WAA INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTN IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE SMOKE WILL GET SCOURED OUT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THIS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH WACO HAVING THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OVER DFW METRO AIRPORTS. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORM OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ON THE MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATE CHANCE OF MVFR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 69C/281 CORRIDOR. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA PUMPING IN HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS STUNTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE MID/LOWER VALLEY SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS DOWN AND SHAVED A DEGREE OF THE HIGHS. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY AND BEING REPLACED BY EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOWER PWATS LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
Models are showing a convective complex rolling south out of the panhandle and south plains tonight which may affect the northern Permian Basin before dissipating, therefore have the highest PoPs tonight from the Davis Mountains north into southeast New Mexico and east towards Snyder with lower Pops to the south and east. An upper ridge will begin to reassert itself tomorrow with highs near 100 for most locations.
A much deeper system will track across the Upper Midwest Saturday night and send a seasonably strong cold front into the area.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM AND LOOKS TO BE VERIFYING SOLIDLY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS WITH WIND GUSTS ON AVERAGE OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS SHOULD REMAIN SHORT-LIVED AS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW SHOULD CARRY WITH IT ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM THE NORTH. AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
936 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT DIGGING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER COLORADO PRODUCING STORMS THAT HAVE JUST STARTED TO FIRE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 3 TO 7 KTS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS TO DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST FOR LATER SHIFT.
954 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS LOW. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN CLOUDS AND THE COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEEP AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOB PLOT INDICATES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM S TX INTO NE TX AND SW AR THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY LA/AR TERMINALS AS WARM FRONT SOUTH OF I-20 BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE TO BE THINNING AS TROUGH SWINGS THRU.
Later this evening better lift will overspread the area as the low level jet impinges on the warm frontal zone, with decent warm air advection from just off the surface through 850 MB or so. However, by mid to late evening, thunderstorm chances should again increase ahead of an approaching cold front.