Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest surface analysis places a warm front just south of the Red River on its way north. Areas of fog and drizzle have developed across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in response to the low level moisture/temp advection. Current surface freezing line runs from Copan to around Red Rock. Areas north of this line could still some light freezing drizzle through this afternoon, although it appears most of the precipitation has lifted north of the KS border. Freezing drizzle will develop again over this area overnight, possibly transitioning to a freezing rain/snow mix before ending Monday afternoon. Light freezing rain is still possible in the Tulsa area Monday morning and into portions of far northwest Arkansas, depending on temperatures.
A cold front will progress south through the area after 06Z, expected to reach FST by 14-15Z. An upper trough moving across the Rockies will elevate winds in the mountains and nearby adjacent plains west of the Pecos River. Once this trough passes, a cold front will move through the CWA early Monday dropping temperatures to much more seasonal levels.
1117 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 /18Z TAFS/ A cold front will move through the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening hours, resulting in north winds of 6 to 12 knots. A cold front will move south across area late this afternoon and tonight, shifting winds from the northeast at the terminals. /issued 308 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Expect very warm temperatures across much of West Central Texas today due to low level west-southwest flow and a thermal ridge. A cold front will move south into the northern Big Country by mid afternoon, cooling temperatures into the 60s. The cold front will continue south across West Central Texas tonight and will be south of the area by 12Z Monday.
1001 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through Monday.
Temperatures will drop below freezing for parts of northeast Oklahoma, with freezing drizzle most likely at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS through Monday morning. Latest surface analysis places a warm front just south of the Red River on its way north. Areas of fog and drizzle have developed across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in response to the low level moisture/temp advection. Current surface freezing line runs from Copan to around Red Rock. Areas north of this line could still some light freezing drizzle through this afternoon, although it appears most of the precipitation has lifted north of the KS border. Freezing drizzle will develop again over this area overnight, possibly transitioning to a freezing rain/snow mix before ending Monday afternoon. Light freezing rain is still possible in the Tulsa area Monday morning and into portions of far northwest Arkansas, depending on temperatures.
1250 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through Monday.
With that, raised lows slightly for tonight which brings them into the upper single digits above zero east and to the low teens west.
Updated for the 12Z TAF cycle Low CIGS are on the increase from south to north as a warm front pushes northward across Arkansas. A strong cold front will then enter the northern portion of the forecast area late in the TAF period bringing northerly winds, and lowering CIGS/VSBYS. Today Through Monday For today, a warm front over southern Arkansas will move northward causing low clouds to develop and spread south to north in the wake of the progressive front.
500 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Forecast focus is on the near term portion of the short term from tonight through mid-day Monday as the remainder of the upper trough moves over the Rockies and High Plains. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as the main upper trough axis moves across the region. The short wave troughs circulating through the base of the main upper trough take a more southerly route from southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico across southern KS and the Panhandle region tonight into Monday. The surface front remains well south of the region with a low tracking across the southern plains and colder high pressure remaining generally in place across the forecast area.
Much cooler conditions are expected for the first part of the upcoming week with cold morning low temperatures.
00Z observed RAOB from OHX shows a strong WAA regime currently ongoing which is moistening the low levels of the atmosphere as confirmed by decreasing surface dewpoint depressions across the local area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 66 48 51 / 40 60 100 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 66 48 49 / 10 50 100 50 Oak Ridge, TN 44 64 47 48 / 30 60 100 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 63 49 51 / 10 50 100 70 TN.
16/00Z TAF CYCLE Warm front was situated just to the SE of KLLQ this evening.
Clouds will begin clearing as high pressure builds over our region. There is the potential for freezing fog tonight into tomorrow morning. Dry conditions are expected this week with high confidence of a warming trend this week as a ridge sets up over MT.
Overnight fog development will reach the I-35 corridor by early morning ahead of the cold front bringing down flying conditions to IFR and possible LIFR. A cold front is stretched across North Texas this afternoon and will drop southward tonight moving into our CWA. Behind the front winds will become northerly and bring cooler, drier air.
CO-160 looks wet, at the moment, even over the higher spots like Mancos Hill and Hesperus. The cause of this precip, an upper level trough, remains to our west and as the base of the trough moves through, an uptick in snow is possible. For tomorrow, northwesterly flow and some minor midlevel instability will allow some showers to form over the higher terrain but minimal accumulations expected. Expect high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to the northwesterly flow and cold air advection.
Temperatures will not rise much above the lower 30s most areas on Monday behind the storm system. Very quiet weather is forecast the remainder of the week as large scale high pressure ridging develops across much of the western and central CONUS. A small upper low will undercut this ridging late week, but it should pass far enough south such that it will not impact western Kansas much at all, other than a wind shift.
Some freezing drizzle will also be possible, especially at KBVO. /Issued 249 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ Main areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle have begun to lift northeast of the region in association with strong upper level jet streak. Temperatures currently near freezing across northern portions of Osage and Washington counties. Areas of freezing drizzle will likely redevelop northwest of Tulsa tonight into Monday morning as upper wave approaches. Forecast point soundings indicate most of the precipitation will likely be freezing drizzle or brief periods of freezing rain given the lack of deeper saturation in the dendritic growth zone. Temperatures will likely be slowly falling through much day and any elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses could become slick and hazardous. There could also be a brief period of freezing drizzle across northwest Arkansas, however amounts appear less certain.
/issued 254 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ The cold front stalled across our northern and eastern counties earlier this morning and is now beginning its push through the rest of the FA.
One thing to note is that when the high clouds do eventually cover more of the CWA, this will help in warming surface temperatures several degrees. High pressure should remain intact across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Monday.
Freezing drizzle has been observed in areas around Alva, leading to some slick spots on roads being reported within Woods County. Cooler temperatures will continue to move into the region, which will expand the area of freezing drizzle across western, northern and central Oklahoma Sunday evening. Forecast soundings indicate a large area of freezing drizzle and possibly some freezing rain in north central Oklahoma, in an area primarily between Ponca City and Enid. The limiting factor for the southern boundary of the advisory is surface temperatures are expected to linger right around freezing temperature throughout central Oklahoma. If temperatures fall an additional few degrees, travel conditions will likely deteriorate due to freezing drizzle in central Oklahoma.
636 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Weak high pressure will support dry weather and moderating temperatures through Monday.
Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain are possible later tonight into tomorrow morning across central and north central Oklahoma (KOKC/KOUN/KPNC). Freezing drizzle has been observed in areas around Alva, leading to some slick spots on roads being reported within Woods County. Cooler temperatures will continue to move into the region, which will expand the area of freezing drizzle across western, northern and central Oklahoma Sunday evening. Forecast soundings indicate a large area of freezing drizzle and possibly some freezing rain in north central Oklahoma, in an area primarily between Ponca City and Enid. The limiting factor for the southern boundary of the advisory is surface temperatures are expected to linger right around freezing temperature throughout central Oklahoma. If temperatures fall an additional few degrees, travel conditions will likely deteriorate due to freezing drizzle in central Oklahoma.
134 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019 High pressure builds overhead early this week for quieter weather.
A ridge axis located along the North American west coast moves eastward with the leading north westerly flow aloft located overhead Montana.
Models did not pick up on this activity at all, even the high resolution runs.
Trimmed measurable precipitation pops to the Lake of the Woods area with flurries elsewhere as the cold front moves southeast across the area this evening. Next period of possible light accumulating snow will be this evening as the cold front drops south, and ensemble signal is consistent on snow occuring, but only showing minimal accumulations of a dusting at the most even out outlying solutions. As this temp drop is correlated with decrease in winds, wind chills should generally remain warmer than advisory criteria (-25), but a few locations could briefly come close (traditional colder locations like Langdon, ND/Fosston, MN). Cold air will still be in place on Tue, as a ridge of high pressure will be building down into the forecast area.
Latest sfc obs and area radars show the cold front has entered the upper CO Rvr valley, and could fropa KMAF ~03Z or sooner. /issued 258 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ After a warm and toasty day with near record highs across West Texas and southeast New Mexico, much cooler temperatures are in store to begin the work week. Current water vapor imagery depicts an elongated trof stretching from the Sierra Mtns into the Southern Plains. This trof will slowly progress eastward over the next 24-36 hrs and allow a cold air mass which is being held up just north of the region to sink southward. A cold front will slowly backdoor into the area overnight and cause temperatures to fall into the 30s across the northern Permian Basin while lows will dip into the 40s and 50s elsewhere.
247 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Upper trough is crossing the western CONUS and moving into the central Plains.
Next period of possible light accumulating snow will be this evening as the cold front drops south, and ensemble signal is consistent on snow occuring, but only showing minimal accumulations of a dusting at the most even out outlying solutions. As this temp drop is correlated with decrease in winds, wind chills should generally remain warmer than advisory criteria (-25), but a few locations could briefly come close (traditional colder locations like Langdon, ND/Fosston, MN). Cold air will still be in place on Tue, as a ridge of high pressure will be building down into the forecast area. After the cold front moves through eastern ND and northwest MN this evening drier air will help improve conditions back to VFR for the rest of the TAF period.
624 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019 Flurries and potential some freezing drizzle is expected over extreme eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle tonight.
402 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Upper trough is crossing the western CONUS and moving into the central Plains.
900 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Evening analysis shows a strong high pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the GOMex generating a 10-15KT easterly breeze thru the H100-H85 lyr. Favorable boating conditions this evng bcmg marginal overnight as high pressure centered between Florida and Bermuda generates a steady E/SE breeze over the lcl Atlc waters: Light to gentle thru midnight, bcmg gentle to moderate thru daybreak Mon.
A cold front has crossed the region today bringing snow showers across the north.
256 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Forecast focus is on the near term portion of the short term from tonight through mid-day Monday as the remainder of the upper trough moves over the Rockies and High Plains. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as the main upper trough axis moves across the region. The short wave troughs circulating through the base of the main upper trough take a more southerly route from southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico across southern KS and the Panhandle region tonight into Monday. The surface front remains well south of the region with a low tracking across the southern plains and colder high pressure remaining generally in place across the forecast area.
we do expect the rain to end behind the front with strong high pressure building to the region.
518 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 /00Z TAFS/ Cold front moving across the area has already switched winds around to the north at KABI (Abilene) and will push across the remainder of West Central Texas terminals before 06Z. Another cold front is set to push south, across West Central Texas, tonight and Monday. This front won't bring rain; but, it will bring winds from the north, along with much cooler temperatures. Comparatively, highs on Monday will be some 20 to 30 degrees cooler than this afternoon and very close to usual mid December highs. As an upper trough finally exits the region mid week, an upper ridge will build over the Plains.
High pressure should remain intact across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Monday.
730 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Patchy freezing fog producing some visibility reductions down to about 7 miles or so continue to be reported from McCook to Hill City. Forecast focus is on the near term portion of the short term from tonight through mid-day Monday as the remainder of the upper trough moves over the Rockies and High Plains. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as the main upper trough axis moves across the region. The short wave troughs circulating through the base of the main upper trough take a more southerly route from southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico across southern KS and the Panhandle region tonight into Monday. The surface front remains well south of the region with a low tracking across the southern plains and colder high pressure remaining generally in place across the forecast area.
Ridge of high pressure will slowly nudge over the area early in the week bringing dry conditions.
At the surface, ridging will gradually be forced eastward with low-level flow beginning to turn southwesterly. Highs should climb into the lower 70s region-wide.
Surface ridging will continue moving into the area today. Low stratus has already moved in and will hang around for much of the day reinforcing the cooler temperatures.
The axis of the mid/upper level trough over the Rocky Mountain region will advance east to the Mississippi Valley. A strong southwesterly low level jet will provide plenty of moisture with this system, as well as some strong winds over the higher elevations of the Smokies. While model soundings show a low level inversion keeping the weak CAPE elevated for the most part, there is a hint that this low level inversion may erode for a couple of hours which could lead to more surface based convection, mainly across the plateau and southern valley.
901 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 The bulk of the snow continues to remain along and south of the Palmer Ridge this evening, as well as into Park County. Have adjusted the rest of the evening's PoP forecast to show less of a chance the further north you go away from the Palmer Ridge, as models have brought the chance too far north again. What is left of a weak upper level trough will move across southern Colorado tonight. On Monday increasing mid and upper level stability will develop behind the exiting trough. Continued cooler than normal temperatures but more sunshine especially in the afternoon. By Monday evening, the upper trough will have shifted southeast bringing Colorado into northwest flow aloft. Levels will dry out Tuesday with an upper ridge building in to the region.
Rain event is underway as strong WAA has commenced over our area, with a warm front now having moved northward to near a Waverly to Livingston line. Warm front should continue northward but stall near the KY border before oscillating back and forth over our northern zones through the day tomorrow per HRRR model. With the low track bisecting Middle Tennessee, main severe weather threat will remain off to our south across Mississippi and Alabama, but cannot rule out a strong or severe thunderstorm across our far south and east counties.
This added cloud cover, moving across the area tonight, will likely keep temperatures from dropping to the lowest guidance; however, there are some decent breaks in the cloud cover sliding across northern MN.
152 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds by mid week on. Frontside of the ridge will begin to creep east tonight with WAA ensuing over the west. Mean ridging expected the remainder of the week with warming temps.
125 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected tonight through Tuesday with crossing low pressure. The overrunning of warm air aloft on the van of a broad, upper trough should support a changeover from snow to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain along and just north of the I-70 corridor. This, combined with strong warm advection aloft will lead to a prolonged period for freezing rain. A period of freezing rain from 7am to 10am , roughly along and south of I-70, may occur due to moist warm advection.
Ridge of high pressure will slowly nudge over the area early in the week bringing dry conditions. Elevated surface winds down the Colorado River Valley may moderate temperatures slightly, but temperatures will still fall into the lower to mid 40s by sunrise.
CO-160 looks wet, at the moment, even over the higher spots like Mancos Hill and Hesperus. The cause of this precip, an upper level trough, remains to our west and as the base of the trough moves through, an uptick in snow is possible. For tomorrow, northwesterly flow and some minor midlevel instability will allow some showers to form over the higher terrain but minimal accumulations expected. Expect high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to the northwesterly flow and cold air advection. A large areas of high pressure sets up and on Tuesday we'll be downstream of the ridge axis that will range from southern California all the way up into Canada. Northwesterly flow will keep pumping in some cooler air with most areas reaching high temperatures well below normal though temps will warm each day.
There will be a couple of favored areas for precipitation development through the day, with the most expansive area to the southeast of I-44 associated with warm advection in advance of the approaching upper level trough. Given the very moist low levels, some drizzle or freezing drizzle is likely to develop, especially mid to late morning, which could lead to travel impacts on untreated, elevated surfaces. A secondary area of precipitation, most likely in the form of light snow, should expand across portions of northeast Oklahoma very near the Kansas border late this morning and into the afternoon hours as the upper level trough moves through. Questions continue about just how far south the mid level moisture will extend into northeast Oklahoma, and therefore, how much freezing drizzle versus snow will occur.
Clouds will begin to push off to the southeast this afternoon and evening as a brief period of surface ridging builds in. However, any delay in clouds moving in would lead to temperatures quite a bit cooler than forecast, including -5 to -10 or so in the favored cold spots of central Wisconsin.
1017 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Patchy freezing fog producing some visibility reductions down to about 7 miles or so continue to be reported from McCook to Hill City. Forecast focus is on the near term portion of the short term from tonight through mid-day Monday as the remainder of the upper trough moves over the Rockies and High Plains. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as the main upper trough axis moves across the region. The short wave troughs circulating through the base of the main upper trough take a more southerly route from southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico across southern KS and the Panhandle region tonight into Monday. The surface front remains well south of the region with a low tracking across the southern plains and colder high pressure remaining generally in place across the forecast area.
A weak upper trough will be accompanied by scattered snow showers in southwest Idaho this evening. The showers will diminish overnight as the trough exits the area to the southeast. An upper ridge will build into the area Monday and Tuesday, bringing light winds and stagnant conditions as an inversion develops in the valleys.
One thing to note is that when the high clouds do eventually cover more of the CWA, this will help in warming surface temperatures several degrees. High pressure should remain intact across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Monday. Despite general northwesterly flow aloft, we would expect to promote a more westerly wind direction in the low- levels and at the surface.
Dry short waves will be responsible for temperature swings, most notably Tuesday night where lows will likely drop below zero again, and then late week as mid level ridging brings temperatures back up to near freezing.
/issued 518 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ /00Z TAFS/ Cold front moving across the area has already switched winds around to the north at KABI (Abilene) and will push across the remainder of West Central Texas terminals before 06Z. /issued 251 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ (Tonight and Monday) Another cold front is set to push south, across West Central Texas, tonight and Monday. This front won't bring rain; but, it will bring winds from the north, along with much cooler temperatures. Comparatively, highs on Monday will be some 20 to 30 degrees cooler than this afternoon and very close to usual mid December highs. (time period) As an upper trough finally exits the region mid week, an upper ridge will build over the Plains.
1154 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 A warm front is currently situated between KPBF and KLLQ as of 06z. TSRA is included across southern terminals closer to the warm front. 16/00Z TAF CYCLE Warm front was situated just to the SE of KLLQ this evening. As the upper trough swings east and precip begins to come to an end, a brief opportunity at freezing drizzle/light snow will be seen across northern counties as cold air moves in.
An upper level trough moving out of Colorado today will bring another round of wintry precipitation to the Interstate 70 Corridor from Kansas to Indiana.
A cold front is moving south across North Texas and will be nearing the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Overnight fog development will reach the I-35 corridor by early morning ahead of the cold front bringing down flying conditions to IFR and possible LIFR. A cold front is stretched across North Texas this afternoon and will drop southward tonight moving into our CWA. Behind the front winds will become northerly and bring cooler, drier air. Low temperatures Tuesday will be around 20 degrees cooler than Monday.