Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A strong area of low pressure currently over central South Dakota will track north-northeast through the afternoon into the evening hours. The current winds advisory may need to be expanded further east into the James River, and perhaps the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton hills later this evening. While low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 30s, the gusty winds will keep frost from forming. Breezy, cool conditions will continue on Thursday with highs in the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
254 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 An area of high pressure extends across the south-central Appalachians.
Low temperatures overnight are forecast to range from the low 60s across inland SE GA to near 70 right along the coast.
335 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature in the short term.
Occluded front arched southeast into central IA, with a warm front into central IL and the cold front into TX. Tonight: Decreasing pops from w to e as a cold front moves across the area. Temperatures will be definitely cooler espeically in our nw counties.
A weak frontal boundary extended out to the east of the low, with wind directions behind the boundary from the south-southwest.
Pockets of Heavy Rain Continue to Develop Across West Central Cold front continues to sag slowly south this afternoon, with strong southerly flow up and over the boundary combining with some upper level jet dynamics to produce widespread showers and storms across the western half of the area.
217 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The lower tropospheric inverted trough/ low level circulation will continue to move westward along the southern periphery of a high amplitude ridge building into the southeast. Without the boundary layer cyclonic flow and additional vorticity provided by the trough, coverage of showers should decrease somewhat. By tomorrow, the inverted trough should no longer be of concern, and the ridge building into the southeast and sinking southward over the Florida peninsula becomes the main feature impacting sensible weather over the Florida Keys and coastal waters. The ridge will be slow to move as the week progresses, as it is the anchor of a CONUS scale blocking pattern.
1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 As of 11AM, surface observations show the cold front still positioned across western Oklahoma (from Cherokee to Hinton to Tipton). The latest high resolution models suggest that the front will slowly sag towards southeastern Oklahoma and become quasi- stationary this afternoon before retreating as a warm front tonight.
Dry elsewhere as high pressure builds into southern Minnesota.
The overall H5 trough will continue to sweep across the northern US Thursday, with a small wave sweeping through during the afternoon. Enough energy is avaiable as it passes to briefly bring light snow along the immediate border counties, with only a dusting to a half inch or so of additional snow, mainly for the higher elevations.
359 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Well defined mid latitude cyclone swirling over central/south central SD this afternoon. Meanwhile, CAA and cloud cover wrapping around the center of the low have dropped Chamberlain's 20z temperature to 47, with Sioux Falls at 59. For tonight, expect winds to remain strong across the region, particularly for areas along/west of the James River and for the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures fall into the 30s with skies clearing as the cyclone moves off to the northeast.
A few swrn Nebraska counties have been added to the High Wind Warning in effect across wrn Nebraska. Strong low pressure will track across portions of the northern Sandhills as it moves northeast.
With this low track the majority of the impacts (precipition and wind) will continue to be to our west in the Dakotas.
Deep SWrly flow remains in place across this area ahead of Pamela, and beneath the closed low which has drifted N to along the NE/SD border, with ripples in the flow yielding additional convection development through the day just W of the region. Did have to raise max temps a bit across portions of SW AR/E TX where the cu field should scatter, with the dense cloud shield/persistent rains across McCurtain County resulting in cooler readings over this area. The highest rain chances should remain across Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas through the remainder of the period.
As of 11AM, surface observations show the cold front still positioned across western Oklahoma (from Cherokee to Hinton to Tipton). The latest high resolution models suggest that the front will slowly sag towards southeastern Oklahoma and become quasi- stationary this afternoon before retreating as a warm front tonight.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 83 64 84 58 / 0 0 0 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 65 82 58 / 0 10 0 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 83 64 82 56 / 10 10 0 10 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 82 61 82 58 / 10 10 0 10 80.
Tonight will be the coldest night of the period, with temperatures below freezing across the entire region and temperatures in the 10s and 20s in the mountains. Thus a freeze warning remains in effect for Thursday morning for the lower Treasure Valley.
221 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The upper low that brought the previous cold front is currently making its way northward across the Northern Plains. Some light precip trailing behind the cold front is still possible across the far southeastern Rolling Plains through this afternoon and early evening. The main highlight for tomorrow will be breezy southwest to west- southwesterly winds ahead of another approaching cold front that is expected to push through after 00Z.
333 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The High Wind Warning in effect across much of wrn Nebraska will continue in effect until 6 pm CDT.
- AM In the wake of a weather system that brought snow to Southwestern Montana to start the week, slightly warmer temperatures are expected today. A weak high pressure system will sneak through the region in the wake of this system, which will allow temperatures to moderate slightly as winds remain on the light side.
The strong cyclone had an impressive pressure gradient across the Plains and into the local area with some local wind gusts topping 45 mph. The front should reach the Mississippi River by 00Z with the cold front exiting the region by 06Z. Due to the lack of instability and despite the high shear, severe weather threat remains low. With the cold front, surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s will drop through the 40s with 30s dewpoints moving in Thursday morning. Look for clearing with the cold front. Subsidence underneath the ridge axis will provide dry weather and mostly sunny skies across the forecast area.
The upper air pattern this morning was highly amplified with a compact energetic low near the NE Panhandle, and a strong ridge across the Gulf Coast and southeast U. Return southerly flow was well underway over the lower MS Valley region into TX, OK and KS in association with deep low pressure over west NE. Through the day, as the storm system over the Plains moves northeast, a warm front will lift northeast across our area, with weak impulses running SW/NE in the mean flow aloft.
344 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A warm front lifted through the area this morning and we are looking west for the next front to come through.
As of 15Z, dry air is working into south central South Dakota along a cold front. After the main band of pcpn moves through, more isolated thunderstorms are possible during the mid to late afternoon as the upper low moves across the region. SPC has drawn up a marginal risk of severe for the eastern CWA this afternoon, likely due to cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low, and for strong wind shear. For tonight the system gradually pulls away from the area, but a fair amount of cloudiness is expected to remain, thus keeping lows a bit warmer than would otherwise be expected. At 500mb, the trough will still reside from Manitoba through eastern MT/WY/CO.
126 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week under high pressure.
Deep SWrly flow remains in place across this area ahead of Pamela, and beneath the closed low which has drifted N to along the NE/SD border, with ripples in the flow yielding additional convection development through the day just W of the region. Did have to raise max temps a bit across portions of SW AR/E TX where the cu field should scatter, with the dense cloud shield/persistent rains across McCurtain County resulting in cooler readings over this area.
230 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A strong area of low pressure currently over central South Dakota will track north-northeast through the afternoon into the evening hours. The current winds advisory may need to be expanded further east into the James River, and perhaps the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton hills later this evening. While low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 30s, the gusty winds will keep frost from forming. Breezy, cool conditions will continue on Thursday with highs in the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 (Issued 259 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: Strong low pressure over the Dakotas will lift northward into southeast Manitoba tonight, with an associated cold front pushing through southern Wisconsin this evening into tonight. and cooler southeast given the lower sun angle by the time clouds move out.
Most of the models have highs Thursday in the upper 50s near I-70 to the lower 70s in south central Kansas. The HRRR/RAP are much cooler with highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Opted to go cooler than much of the guidance.
This sunshine, combined with southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb back into the low to mid 80s. We'll remain under the influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure for one more day which will maintain our deep southerly flow and this relatively warm/humid air mass. The end result will be yet another warm day as temperatures climb back into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon.
The cold front has pushed through far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri early this afternoon with cooler and drier air moving in behind the front. With the upper system taking a more S-N track, we likely won't see too much more of a push southward with this cold front. Model consensus favors stalling this frontal boundary somewhere over central Missouri overnight where it will then try to lift northward tomorrow as a warm front. Off to the west, the longwave trough will finally start to translate eastward. As lift increases out ahead of this next system, the stalled front will start to work northwards as a warm front Thursday afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm development will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening as cold front currently moving into western Missouri moves into the CWA. With increasing mid-level ascent supplied by the upper trough approaching from the west and PWATS increasing to around 1.
While in the warmer air, wind are quickly shifting to the south and southwest, reducing shear, and convergence. Occluded front arched southeast into central IA, with a warm front into central IL and the cold front into TX. Tonight: Decreasing pops from w to e as a cold front moves across the area. Temperatures will be definitely cooler especially in our nw counties.
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A large storm system over the central Plains will track into south central Canada tonight, pushing a cold front into central Illinois tonight and lingering in the area the next few days.
/issued 221 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021/ The upper low that brought the previous cold front is currently making its way northward across the Northern Plains. Some light precip trailing behind the cold front is still possible across the far southeastern Rolling Plains through this afternoon and early evening. The main highlight for tomorrow will be breezy southwest to west- southwesterly winds ahead of another approaching cold front that is expected to push through after 00Z.
A strong area of low pressure currently over central South Dakota will track north-northeast through the afternoon into the evening hours. The current winds advisory may need to be expanded further east into the James River, and perhaps the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton hills later this evening. While low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 30s, the gusty winds will keep frost from forming. Breezy, cool conditions will continue on Thursday with highs in the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
Warm and quiet weather pattern continues as an upper-level ridge has parked over the area. A deep, upper-level trough will move out of the Central U.
352 PM PDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A slow moving cold front will bring a mix of light rain and snow across the Inland Northwest today.
Lows will be mostly in the lower 70s with mid 70s along the immediate coast which is a little above normal for mid Oct. High pressure north of the area will maintain E/NE winds across the waters around 5 to 10 knots into tonight, increasing 10-12 kts Thu aftn.
952 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A weakened mid-upper level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the Bahamas. Over the past day or so, the east to southeast flow caused by the proximity and location of this trough has helped shuttle in enhanced lower level moisture. The sounding also revealed that while weaker and farther to the east, the mid to upper level low is still keeping drier air above 500 mb. High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic is slowly building into the area and winds have become more easterly. Temperatures are currently in the lower 80s and dewpoints are a few degrees higher tonight than the previous few nights, coming in around 72 to 73 degrees. High pressure settling in across the southeastern U.
736 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A large area of high pressure will linger through the work week.
301 PM PDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A slow moving cold front will bring a mix of light rain and snow across the Inland Northwest today.
The High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire. The overall H5 trough will continue to sweep across the northern US Thursday, with a small wave sweeping through during the afternoon. Enough energy is available as it passes to briefly bring light snow along the immediate border counties, with only a dusting to a half inch or so of additional snow, mainly for the higher elevations.
550 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Well defined mid latitude cyclone swirling over central/south central SD this afternoon. Meanwhile, CAA and cloud cover wrapping around the center of the low have dropped Chamberlain's 20z temperature to 47, with Sioux Falls at 59. For tonight, expect winds to remain strong across the region, particularly for areas along/west of the James River and for the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures fall into the 30s with skies clearing as the cyclone moves off to the northeast.
840 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A large storm system over the central Plains will track into south central Canada tonight, pushing a cold front into central Illinois tonight and lingering in the area the next few days.
The overall H5 trough will continue to sweep across the northern US Thursday, with a small wave sweeping through during the afternoon. Enough energy is available as it passes to briefly bring light snow along the immediate border counties, with only a dusting to a half inch or so of additional snow, mainly for the higher elevations.
/issued 344 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021/ A warm front lifted through the area this morning and we are looking west for the next front to come through.
After a few cold, possible freezing nights, over the next several days, temperatures will trend warmer and precipitation chances return to zero as northwest flow aloft returns under another ridge of high pressure.
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The High Wind Warning in effect across much of wrn Nebraska will continue in effect until 6 pm CDT.
1016 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A large area of high pressure will linger through the work week.
Our moist air mass will keep overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s with narrow dew point depressions. We'll remain under the influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure for one more day which will maintain our deep southerly flow and this relatively warm/humid air mass. The end result will be yet another warm day as temperatures climb back into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon.
Upper level ridging will build across the region in the wake of this system into the weekend.
Main impact for most areas will be a good deal of cloud cover, but some light snow showers will be possible over the higher terrain. Breezy afternoon winds will make it feel cooler than the temperature readings. SE Montana will continue to melt snow with highs holding in the low to mid 40s.
Breezy west-southwest winds at KPVW and KLBB this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move past the terminals mid to late Thursday evening. /issued 221 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021/ The upper low that brought the previous cold front is currently making its way northward across the Northern Plains. Some light precip trailing behind the cold front is still possible across the far southeastern Rolling Plains through this afternoon and early evening. The main highlight for tomorrow will be breezy southwest to west- southwesterly winds ahead of another approaching cold front that is expected to push through after 00Z. The trough axis should make its way to about 102W by early Friday morning. High pressure remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico though flattening will occur with the approach of the aforementioned trough.
344 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 We remain in the "battle-zone" between a stubborn ridge of high pressure to our east and an approaching trough to our west. Humid southerly winds will continue to keep temperatures above normal today with highs again expected to get up into the low-to-mid 80s.
Clouds will scatter out by mid day across areas south of I- 94, allowing for temperatures to approach 60, while locales to the north will top out in the low 50s. Friday will be more of the same as a trough digs down into the Central Plains. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler across the southern half of the CWA with low to mid 50s expected for all.
This quick moving disturbance looks to bring about 3 to 6 inches of snow to the western Colorado mountains and models have been pretty consistent in showing this, with the bulk of activity and accumulation occurring with the cold front passage during the afternoon. So, if you haven't done so already, now would be a good time to winterize sprinkler systems and swamp coolers. Opted to issue a Freeze Warning for the northern and southern valleys that look to see below freezing temperatures tonight and haven't yet seen a widespread killing hard freeze. Low temperatures Thursday night look to drop into the 20s for many lower elevations with teens for the higher valleys, so confidence is fairly high in this being it. Plenty of sun will be evident though as high pressure builds to the west and slides overhead for the weekend.
Dry weather, high pressure ridging, and northeasterly flow will continue through today with a slight chance for isolated to scattered showers developing offshore and drifting through into north central Florida. Above average temperatures are expected for today with max temps reaching into the mid to upper 80s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coast.
Last nights low pressure system upper level features have continue to lift north of the area with the cold front slowing down as it pushes east through the area. Currently the cold front is just east of the Topeka area with a wind shift haven taken place to the west and noticeably drier air taking hold. A broad trough is in place over the western CONUS.
The upper level long wave trough will continue to move through the Central and Northern Plains throughout the short term period with small pieces of energy moving around it's periphery. High pressure will be the main feature across the central Plains through this weekend as the upper level trough moves eastward with upper level ridging building across the western Untied States.
Areas along the high terrain will drop again into the mid to low 20s with a few locations dropping into the teens. Overall, a dry and low impact pattern is in store for northern Arizona with warmer temperatures by this weekend. Temperatures Thursday night for some locations are likely to be warmer from the mixing compared to the previous few nights.
The cold front has pushed through far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri early this afternoon with cooler and drier air moving in behind the front. With the upper system taking a more S-N track, we likely won't see too much more of a push southward with this cold front. Model consensus favors stalling this frontal boundary somewhere over central Missouri overnight where it will then try to lift northward tomorrow as a warm front. Off to the west, the longwave trough will finally start to translate eastward. As lift increases out ahead of this next system, the stalled front will start to work northwards as a warm front Thursday afternoon. Some lingering rain showers Friday morning and cooler temperatures to finish out the workweek.
1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Well defined mid latitude cyclone swirling over central/south central SD this afternoon. Meanwhile, CAA and cloud cover wrapping around the center of the low have dropped Chamberlain's 20z temperature to 47, with Sioux Falls at 59. For tonight, expect winds to remain strong across the region, particularly for areas along/west of the James River and for the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures fall into the 30s with skies clearing as the cyclone moves off to the northeast. Next upper/mid trough slides into the area late Thursday into Friday, with the bottom of the trough south of our area (across the OK/KS border).
Rain chances will be fairly sparse for Thursday but Thursday night and into Friday, as an upper level low will push into the region.
With the passage of the upstream trough on Friday, we are forecasted to dip below normal temperatures (50-60F) for the first time since the 25th of September.
Aside from that, wet weather is going to remain in the forecast thru the remainder of the short term period, as the aforementioned trof slowly amplifies and makes its way to the east.
337 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 The main concern in the short term will again be overnight lows, as temperatures will hover in the low 30s to upper 20s.
138 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft is retreating eastward, making way for the next active weather system. A slow-moving cold front is currently situated west of the Mississippi River, and is poised to being widespread showers and storms to Middle Tennessee Friday and Friday night.
Warm and quiet weather pattern continues as an upper-level ridge has parked over the area. A deep, upper-level trough will move out of the Central U. into the Ohio River Valley on Friday, ushering in a stout cold front along with it. This is our main talking point for the forecast, as this cold front will bring showers and t'storms along with it.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface is centered across the Southeast states and is shifting east into the Atlantic. Aloft a ridge is stretched from the gulf into the northern gulf coast. Farther west and north, an upper through and associated cold front are moving southeast across the plains with cool Canadian air spilling in behind the front. A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible as the front approaches and the upper ridge shifts away, but mainly in interior SE TX. Friday the cold front will move through the area creating scattered thunderstorms. A much cooler and drier air mass will begin to advect in during the evening.