Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TFJ A closed upper low continues to be centered over southwest Saskatchewan. Instability associated with this low is currently driving scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms across much of northeast Montana. Tonight the closed low to the north will slowly make its way into the Treasure State. Thursday the low will continue overhead, and will pick up a good moisture fetch from the circulation over North Dakota. Thursday evening shower activity will taper off with the setting of the sun, and Thursday night will be mainly dry as weak ridging builds in behind the now exiting upper low.
Tonight Through Thursday A major long wave low pressure trough extending from the eastern Pacific off of the west coast to the eastern great plains will remain over the region. Gusty southwest winds will extend across the lower elevations of the Red Desert. Night time freezing to near freezing temperatures in the mountains will continue retard the snowmelt.
An upper low will rotate energy down from central Montana which will provide enough forcing for showers through the night. With low freezing levels in place there have already been reports of small hail from the stronger cells, and this will be common over the next few hours, though instability is too low/shallow to produce severe weather. Upper low which has been in southern Saskatchewan for several days is beginning to sag southward. Upper low will shift slowly east to western ND tomorrow afternoon and evening, and the persistent cyclonic flow aloft will result in more diurnal showers and isold tstms again on Thursday. Greatest chances will be in our west as cooler air on back side of low will provide some stabilizing for our east.
Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure in place over the Carolinas and poorly organized low pressure over Kansas. Strong ridging looks to remain across the east coast. Possible scattered thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon given the amount of instability but this will be fighting a cap and a bit of upper ridging so will also leave out any mention at this point.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 67 88 / 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 86 65 85 / 20 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 85 65 85 / 20 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 85 62 84 / 30 20 20 20.
Good moisture and instability is expected to remain across the region during this time frame as a pair of upper troughs kick out a series of short waves across the plains region. Surface map at 19z showed an area of low pressure over northeast South Dakota with a weak trough extending from the low into northwest Nebraska. A second low was over south central Kansas with a warm front extending into northeast Kansas and a dry line stretching south into north central Texas. Main focus then shifts to the south on Thursday and Thursday night with Kansas system as warm front lifts north to vicinity of southern Nebraska border by late afternoon.
1028 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Currently - Winds have surged this evening out of the northeast to east as a ridge axis builds from north of the Bahamas, across the Florida peninsula, and across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds have picked up across all Florida Keys waters due to a ridge building westward across the Florida Peninsula.
Most of the high resolution short term guidance shows the tstms out over the FA now continuing to lift NE and staying on the weak side.
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day.
Most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate tonight as area of low pressure moves east into Arizona.
752 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Sunshine and warmer weather will continue this evening ahead of a cold front. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area tonight. then hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west.
A broad area of high pressure aloft will cover the Southeast states and suppress convection.
517 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSITENT UPPER LOW OVER FAR NRN MT WITH DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN SD. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT. Persistent upper level trough over the northwest CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains through the Memorial Day weekend.
802 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Strong ridging over the western Atlantic and across the northern Florida peninsula kept relatively dry and stable conditions in place today, while easterly gradient flow pinned the west coast sea breeze right along the coast. High pressure from the Atlantic will continue to extend into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the week, with generally easterly winds holding over the coastal waters.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving a high chance (60 percent or 6 in 10 chance) of development over the next 5 days for the area of low pressure north of the Bahamas. The low is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and approach the southeast US over the weekend where it may stall or move slowly near the southeast coast.
735 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day.
HRRR model moves this low north this evening and toward the Langdon/Cavalier area by 12Z Thu. Main rain area north of this low has shifted into Manitoba with lingering rain along the Canadian border Pembina east to Baudette. Most of the high resolution short term guidance shows the tstms out over the FA now continuing to lift NE and staying on the weak side.
Dry and warmer by the weekend with temperatures around 90. The lower levels around Sacramento and Stockton look fairly moist and areas of low clouds may form once again. On Thursday the trough moves far enough to the east to dry out most areas.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains oriented from western portions of the Gulf of Mexico to the Central Gulf Coast Region this evening, with dry weather continuing across our area underneath this feature. We increased gridded sky coverage a bit overnight to account for the high cloudiness. The low temperature forecast generally remains on track, though did make some slight adjustments to hourly temp/dewpoint grids to account for the latest trends.
245 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure slides offshore to our south tonight.
111 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure passes south of the region today. A Pacific cold front will bring rain as it quickly tracks across the region on Saturday.
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon as the weak frontal boundary across the Rio Grande valley lifts northward as a warm front. /issued 417 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Weak stationary frontal boundary draped across the CWA this morning will retreat northward as a warm front this afternoon.
134 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 Fast moving low pressure will bring showers to the region after midnight and Saturday morning. The upper level wave will exit by late Saturday morning, as a midwest ridge quickly builds.
Could be a few coastal showers but model guidance does not bring them inland during the day with upper ridge over the area.
Currently areas south of I-65 are in the low 50s, which is almost 10 degrees warmer than areas along the TN/KY state line.
The forecast will remain dry for today with high pressure in control as the high center moves into the Carolinas. Low-level flow will quickly turn southerly tonight as a trough moves toward the Ohio Valley, but high 500mb heights associated with a subtropical ridge over the Bahamas should deflect this system to the north on Saturday. This front will begin to return northward and dissipate as a much larger trough moves into the Plains on Christmas Day. High temperatures should range from the low 70s in the North to perhaps upper 70s in the South with no rain expected.
There were a few reported accidents so the freezing rain advisory was maintained until 8 an based on possible impacts with morning commute. With mainly clear skies and light winds tonight, expect temperatures to fall into the lower 20s.
405 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A low pressure system will result in unsettled weather this Christmas weekend.
1144 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure is expected to build across the area on today.
As moisture pools ahead of the storm, would expect areas of freezing drizzle to develop but with the expected warming, the time frame where -fzra would occur looks to be brief. Am concerned a little with SD highway 14 corrdior about the freezing drizzle holding on a little longer, but models continue to push warm air northward quickly ahead of thestorm.
Model guidance, especially the higher resolution ones (NAM/HRRR/WRF) show the weak inverted trough redeveloping close the east coast. Deep ridge will remain situated across the Florida peninsula and eastern GOMEX thru the period.
This should continue through around 12z, at which time BUFKIT soundings show the low-levels drying and the HRRR suggests improving surface visibilities. On Saturday, high amplitude ridging will continue as a significant upper trough digs into the Great Basin. All models (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) show 700 mb temps climbing to +2 deg C over the high plains on Saturday, so a few 45 to 50 degree readings are likely.
High pressure north of the waters will maintain northeasterly winds in the 5 to 15 knot range today with seas 3 feet or less.
/Issued 258 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016/ High pressure axis will continue to push eastward today, with surface ridging nosing down the Appalachians creating yet another CAD wedge. Expect increasing clouds into this afternoon and evening periods as cold front approaches from the northwest.
High pressure shifting east toward the Mid-Atlantic states will result in southeasterly winds maintaining an influx of warm and moist air into the region today. Aloft, the low that was sitting off the Baja Coast yesterday morning is lifting northeast acrs the Four Corners, while a broad flat ridge was seen over the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring warmer and more humid conditions back over LA and east TX. As this warm and very moist airmass moves inland, passing across the relatively cooler shelf waters nearshore, patchy marine fog is expected to develop and advect inland over the coastal parishes and counties.
1234 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A low pressure system approaching from the plains will cause a mix of light rain and light snow to develop later this afternoon and continue into early Saturday morning.
340 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 The warm front was well to the north this afternoon.
Today deep layer moisture will increase in response to a short wave moving out of the high plains and southerly flow in the lower troposphere. With temperatures expected to be at or below freezing over our far northwestern counties early this morning, there could be light freezing drizzle there between 12- 15Z (6-9am). The decision to mention freezing rain is due to the possibility of some of the melted snow, ie rain reaching the ground in areas that are expected to be at or below freezing at the onset. Saturday night warm frontogenesis is expected to develop across our area from a system over the high plains, but deep layer moisture is very limited.
A northern stream low tracking across the northern Plains and Great Lakes tonight will bring a strengthening S-SW flow through the lower and mid levels to the TN Valley. Passage of the 850-700 mb trough axis and theta-e max will result in lowering rain chances and QPF in the afternoon. However, with the weak amplification of that trough, the associated surface front remains to our north, so low level moisture remains into Saturday night.
942 AM MST Fri Dec 23 2016 Signficant temperature ranges around the area as wind quickly pushes temperautres to freezing but a let up in the winds yields single digit teperatures. Snow begins to move into the southwest mountains on Saturday as aforementioned upper trough digs over the Great Basin putting the area under diffluent flow aloft. Closed low forms over the Great Basin and lifts northeast into Wyoming Saturday night into Christmas. As the closed low rapidly deepens and pulls moisture northward, snow looks to spread across the entire area late Saturday night into Christmas as the moisture interacts with cold air dropping south out of Canada.
338 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern states. At the sfc, high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast continues to retreat the east and northeast. There is currently a very dry layer lingering between the lower elevations and the 10 to 12kft mid level cloud deck. This will send the weak cold front into the Commonwealth late tonight.
Surface analysis this morning places a warm front over the panhandle of Texas and portions of central Texas. Meanwhile a mid level trof will approach from the west. Temps will climb a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday though clouds will hamper warming. The warm front will push north to about I-40 and stall while the mid level trough moves across the region. This band of rain will taper off and move east as the trough and entrance region of the jet move east. A few showers are possible Saturday night as the warm front remains over the area. in response to developing low pressure over the plains. the warm front will surge north. Temps will surge into the lower 70s in most places with mainly rain free conditions.
KDRT has managed to stay removed from the lower CIGs and maintain MVFR. Temperatures running a little cooler at mid morning and have slowed warm up. Christmas eve looks to be much warmer than normal with some highest minimum records possible.
Some patchy drizzle is expected given the high moisture values with a shower or two possible. Low level jet is prog to strengthen even further Saturday Night /45 to 50 kts/ as a trough moves across the Plains.
This will bring a weak cold front through the forecast area. Digging upper trough will move inland over the Pacific Coast today. Deep upper trough continues to move inland during the day on Saturday. The base of this trough will be over Baja California while the northern end will be over British Columbia and Alberta. The moisture on the southerly flow aloft moves into Eastern Montana Saturday Night as the base of the trough moves through Arizona and New Mexico.
104 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will continue to move off to the east today. A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Saturday morning.
The local pressure gradient will slowly but steadily increase into the weekend on the south/southwestern periphery of this anticyclone.
Across the eastern Ozarks a little drier air is still in place and as this dry air is overcome some brief sleet will be possible and a few snow flakes early this morning as slightly cooler temperatures are in place. Temperatures at the surface will remain above freezing across the entire area and no accumulations or impacts are expected. Fog will likely develop tonight into Saturday morning after the rain ends and saturation occurs in the low levels along with light winds and clear skies occur.
ECP may be just southwest of the edge of the low clouds and fog and may stay at VFR. High pressure centered over North Carolina/Virginia will build into the CWA today. The ridging will help to keep the CWA dry today. Expect highs to range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Florida panhandle to the mid 70s across the southern Big Bend area (CTY).
257 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Band of snow has pushed east of the forecast area with weak trough working across the forecast area. Southeasterly flow develops throughout the day on Saturday ahead of the approaching trough to the west. As moisture pools ahead of the storm, would expect areas of freezing drizzle to develop but with the expected warming, the time frame where -fzra would occur looks to be brief. Am concerned a little with SD highway 14 corrdior about the freezing drizzle holding on a little longer, but models continue to push warm air northward quickly ahead of thestorm.
Thinking is that a warm front across SE TX and S LA attm will quickly move northward later today into tonight and pull up stationary somewhere near the I-30 corridor. Winds currently from the E to SE at 10kts or less will continue to veer around to more of a southerly direction today into tonight with the passage of the warm front.
High pressure will move offshore this evening. A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon. High pressure returns for Christmas Day.
Overall forecast remains on track with snow exiting this evening and then perhaps a brief window for drizzle/freezing drizzle, but overall confidence in any freezing drizzle is low. Behind this system, brief ridging works into the region tonight into Saturday with very light near surface flow.
A cold upper trough will pass the area on Saturday, with a few lingering snow showers or flurries. An upper trough over the area will exit the region on Christmas Day, and upper heights will rise. The low level air mass will still be cold, with highs remaining mostly in the 30s.
Starting Saturday, a upper level low pressure system will swing a mid level circulation through central Idaho and southwest/west- central Montana.
317 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Mid/upper level trough continues eastward over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region the rest of today. The lift associated with the trough has exited the area allowing subsidence and dry air into the region. The clouds have cleared as a response, which has caused temperatures to be slightly warmer this afternoon. The trough will push a weak cold front into our this evening. Surface winds will become light and calm as weak surface ridging slides through. The low lying locations will have the greatest chances of fog. Also, if fog forms given the freezing temperatures ice may become an issue on untreated roads and elevated surfaces.
On Christmas Day, a negatively tilted trough will move northeast from the southern and central Rockies.
Clouds and cooler column will limit temperature recovery with coldest temperatures over the far nw and still relatively mild over the south and east. Upper trough propagates into the Rockies Saturday night. With ridging over the Forecast area any pcpn which starts to develop should remain light.
1245 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 Fast moving low pressure will bring showers to the region late tonight and Saturday morning. The upper level wave will exit by late Saturday morning, as a midwest ridge quickly builds.
1208 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure passes south of the region today. A Pacific cold front will bring rain as it quickly tracks across the region on Saturday.
High pressure is forecast to control Indiana weather into tomorrow.
332 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Cold front to approach our area but not until late tonight. On Saturday, the aforementioned boundary will come close to entering our northwest areas before stalling out and then lifting back to the north as a warm front. On Saturday night, upper level ridging will develop and with the front lifting northward, pops will decrease to just a low chance of light showers.
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a trough of low pressure moving into the Plains this morning. light south southeasterly winds are bringing the low clouds and drizzle to the areas. temperatures today will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. As the Plains' trough lifts off to the northeast later today and tonight. a warm front will lift across the ArkLaTex and stall near or along the I-30 corridor tonight and on Saturday. The added lift associated with the trough will likely provide enough energy for a stray thunderstorm tonight. The next cold front will then approach the region on Christmas.
/Issued 452 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today allowing for decreasing clouds and drier conditions as the remaining rain over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle moves out of the forecast area by mid morning. Another closed upper low over the southwestern states Christmas Eve will track east and then lift northeast across the Four Corners region into the central Rockies by Christmas Day.
/issued 334 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ Light rain showers continue across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM this morning as an upper trough opens and shifts northeast into the Rockies. Another upper trough will begin to dig along the West Coast Saturday and will bring more springlike conditions to the region this weekend.
1158 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast this afternoon. the high will be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and Saturday and establish an onshore flow into the forecast area. A weakening cold front will be just northwest of the area Saturday. The front will dissipate and high pressure will ridge into the region from the north Christmas Day. The moisture advection should continue tonight but flat upper ridging should generally keep this moisture shallow except possibly in the northwest section closer to somewhat deeper moisture ahead of an approaching weakening front and farther from the stronger upper ridging to the south.
Accumulating snow is forecast in the high country on Saturday with snow-packed roads and winter driving conditions. A lull in the precipitation is expected today as the current low pressure system moves off to the northeast. Snow levels will drop rapidly during the day Saturday as a cold front sweeps across the area.
357 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A low pressure system approaching from the plains will cause a mix of light rain and light snow to develop by this evening and continue into early Saturday morning.
1046 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. The center of the high will push further southward towards the southeastern states through tonight. Large upper level ridge to our west will slowly move eastward through mid/late week.
1137 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over the central U. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. Tuesday will be very similar to today as the upper level high remains over the region. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and heat index values in the middle to upper 90s can be expected.
841 PM PDT MON SEP 5 2016 A trough of low pressure moving inland across California will keep a deep marine layer in place through Tuesday.
912 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
So, while quiet weather is still anticipated overnight, overnight lows should be a little warmer than last night. However, isolated convection lines up all the way southwest into northern Arkansas, along the periphery of the upper high that is centered over Mississippi this afternoon. The higher-resolution NMM/ARW also show some popcorn type convection over our area by afternoon, although in an area where the mid-level cap will be strengthening a bit, so will keep the forecast dry for now. Temperatures on Tuesday expected to be a tad warmer than today, mainly in the lower 90s.
/issued 258 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016/ Plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the forecast area, thanks to another mid/upper level disturbance rotating around a stacked high pressure system to our east.
High pressure continues to dominate the region this evening.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to cool off quickly and some mountain locations will dip below freezing later tonight.