Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
529 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Large upper level high pressure is sprawled over the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Subsidence and dry air on its eastern half over our region is inhibiting any vertical growth to the diurnal cumulus forming over the mountain ridges so far early this afternoon. No other noticeable changes expected through Sunday night as high pressure remains firmly in place. High temperatures on Sunday will likely be a degree or two warmer than today and close to record highs.
Low pressure will deepen across the northern Plains on Sunday allowing breezy southwest winds to return to the central Plains states supporting rising temperatures across the area.
Hi-res models are favoring areas east of I-65 and south of the Bluegrass Parkway for the lowest visibilities into early Sunday. Expect upper 60s and low 70s along and west of that line, with folks further east likely staying in the low to mid 60s. Expect a dry overnight with lows dropping into the low and mid 50s in most spots. Expect warmer temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. Still expecting a dry Labor Day with warm temps in the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
As of 19z Saturday afternoon upper level ridge axis was positioned across northern Nevada, placing the central Plains in northwesterly flow. At the surface, a weak cold front has pushed into northern KS. Behind the weak front, high pressure will descend across the area. Dew points in the low to mid 60s will contribute to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s as well.
Sunday will be cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise some increase in mid level into the NE ND and far NW MN overnight into Sunday morning in warm advection zone ahead of southeast moving low pressure system from Alberta. Southwest winds 10-20 kts and 925 mb temps 30-33C in a zone from Jamestown into the mid Red River valley along with a very dry airmass should allow temps to surge into the low-mid 90s in this zone.
An upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin with a trough in the Great Lakes region will persist tonight into Sunday. Models remain consistent with building a thermal ridge into the Northern and Central Plains ahead of a cold front.
Models still show winds increasing tomorrow morning as a cold front pushes into southern Montana. Big forecast concern for the rest of Labor Day weekend is a strong and dry cold front pushing across the region Sunday afternoon. Cooler temperatures arrive overnight as another front drops into the region after midnight. Dont let the cooler temperatures fool you. offsetting the helpful effect of cooler temperatures.
Is being forced S by the upper ridge, but should shear Eastward. Isolated -SHRA may also develop overnight through Sunday across portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR near the trough, but low confidence precludes mention in the TXK/ELD terminals attm. An enlongated area of ascent and vorticity with this trough has supported the development of some isolated showers along and north of Interstate 30.
A weak short wave trough moving through the northwest flow tonight may bring a few showers and possibly a clap of thunder around the Kirksville area after midnight. Sunday will be warmer than today with thermal ridging edging into the region from the west.
755 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak cold front will push slowly southeastward through central North Carolina overnight.
This airmass with 850mb temperatures in the 24C to 28C range will push eastward tonight and Sunday with temperatures locally expected to be well warmer the next several days.
Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has formed near a cold front in northwest WI, where CAPE has climbed to 800-1000 j/kg. Solid low overcast conditions will give way to clearing skies as the cold front moves through this evening.
Much warmer weather is ahead for Labor Day with highs well into the 80s. Storms are possible ahead of a cold front before cooler weather returns for midweek. However, an upper level trof will bring a small chance for a shower over mainly northwest and north areas tonight.
Temperatures generally look to be right around, if not a degree or two cooler than average.
945 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A secondary short wave associated with Hudson Bay upper low is now affecting northeast MN into northwest WI, while clouds have cleared the remainder of our area. The cold front is bringing in drier air, with dew points in northwest Minnesota in the upper 40s, and even lower dew points farther west and north. Dry high pressure will continue trekking to our south and the next low/front do not move in until Sunday evening. Dew points could easily be lower than projected, and max temps may need to go higher with some downslope flow off the Buffalo Ridge.
Except for the lowest levels, these winds are favoring the southerly direction.
A sct cu field should again develop areawide between 16-17Z Sunday, with areas of AC/cirrus also lingering through the day as well as the weak trough axis persists in VC of the I-20 corridor.
An U/L trough along the eastern seaboard extending south over the northern Florida peninsula will begin to lift north of the region tonight. An U/L ridge over the central Atlantic will build west over the Florida peninsula on Sunday. At the surface, a trough over the central Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico will remain quasi- stationary through Sunday and will be the focus for scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. Shower/Thunderstorm activity is expected to redevelop over the coastal waters late tonight along the trough axis and spread locally onshore around sunrise.
726 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Aviation A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds tonight along with a few light rain showers.
This should continue to propagate southward through the late afternoon hours as high pressure settles into the region. Low level jet of 25-30 knots will draw warmer air into the region and limit radiational cooling slightly.
803 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Update A weak cold front will bring increasing clouds tonight along with a few light rain showers.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure ridge axis will remain wedged into the forecast area from a center over the Tennessee valley.
1034 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Large upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with dry and warm conditions across the Northern Plains. Even warmer conditions expected on Sunday with thermal ridge passing overhead. Very dry and breezy conditions will develop as a dry cold front crosses the region with widespread Red Flag conditions expected (see Fire Weather discussion below).
However, lamp guidance suggest the low clouds holding firm through the overnight hours. An approaching northern stream upper trough, branching south from a Hudson Bay low, will absorb the remains of Harvey tonight, placing eastern Kentucky in a dry northwesterly flow regime. Surface ridging building into the Lake Cumberland region out of the Tennessee Valley will gradually clear skies out through the night, potentially allowing for some patchy fog to develop across portions of the Cumberland Valley as temperatures cool into the low-mid 50s. Return flow will become somewhat more prominent Sunday night ahead of the southward propagating Hudson Bay low and southward extending troughing.
Jose remains in the Atlantic and mid-level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will remain through a good portion of the period. A trough could slide back east into the state as Jose moves northward, allowing for a return to more moist air. This trough feature is somewhat uncertain in the extended. We remain in a tropical pattern through the extended, but the location of the trough aloft could help amplify sea breeze convection.
/Issued 433 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ Southwest flow aloft will continue for the duration of the forecast, as mid-level trof persists, supported by a succession of jet streaks arriving from the northeast Pacific. This flow will tap moisture from the Pacific west of Mexico, particularly in light of Tropical Storm Norma, which is progged to drift north, before its remnants become absorbed into the base of the trof.
Main upper trough was over CA. Upper trough will move into ND Sat night and become negatively tilted. Stronger cold front will sweep in from the west Sat night.
351 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather and mild temperatures back to our region through the weekend. Weak ridging will keep our weather mainly fair through Saturday. In general, rain-free conditions and fairly warm temperatures are expected this period over CNY/NEPA, as an upper ridge starts to build over the northeastern states.
218 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather and mild temperatures back to our region through the weekend. Weak ridging will keep our weather mainly fair through Saturday.
This low will be the focus for the forecast through the short term.
336 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery featured a deep longwave trough positioned over the inter-mountain west with multiple subtle perturbations rotating around its base and ejecting to the northeast. Over the next 24 hours, the upper level longwave will pivot ENE into the western Dakotas as a 90 kt jet streak wraps around the base of the trough. This will help push the cold front southeastward during the day tomorrow, approaching Concordia by the mid to late afternoon.
Temperatures will climb into the middle 80s this afternoon as high pressure begins to settle into the region.
The late summery taste to the air will continue for today and Saturday as an upper level ridge continues to pull warm air northward. Highs from the mid 80s to around 90 are expected - well above the low 70s normals for mid Sep.
255 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The cold front is currently sitting off to the northwest of the forecast area. The higher resolution guidance indicates the potential for thunderstorm development along the moisture gradient in south central Nebraska/north central Kansas around 6-7pm tonight. Saturday: The cold front is expected to bisect the forecast area during the day tomorrow before it fully pushes southeast of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Low stratus is expected to be present behind the front for a majority of Nebraska and with the combination of cooler air and clouds, highs tomorrow will be cooler.
The weekend looks mostly dry, with warm temperatures, as high pressure builds back over the region. Weak ridging will keep our weather mainly fair through Saturday.
1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Longwave trough moves across the northern Rockies through tonight, while southwest flow develops over southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. With the southerly breezes, a pretty mild night is expected with lows upper 60s to near 70 in southeast Kansas and the lower 60s in the eastern Ozarks. Southwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend as the upper trough rotates from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and into southern Canada.
136 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will drift slowly eastward across the central Great Lakes today. This high should shift to the New England States by Saturday night.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas tonight will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA. The upper level ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sat night.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 50s to the lower 60s in most locations. Lows tonight look to cool into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Saturday continues to look dry and sunny with high pressure maintaining control across the region. Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit with highs warming into the lower-middle 80s. The rest of the weekend weather looks to remain dry and warm as as high pressure will continue to control our weather pattern locally.
Northeast flow in the low/mid-levels has already begun to advect a drier airmass into the region, with 12Z raob data from MFL indicating a gradual decline in PWAT values compared to yesterday. Max temps will likely reach the lower 90s in the interior, and this will support SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg based on a modified 12Z sounding.
316 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure dominates the area ahead of low pressure system currently centered over NE. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to increasing low-level moisture and persistent southerly flow. An upper ridge axis will be centered through the lower-mid MS Valley early Saturday evening. This ridge will get suppressed slightly southward on Saturday night as a short wave tracks e/ne through the mid-upper MS Valley.
403 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Another day with the stalled front and trough across the area. Guidance continues to hold onto the dominant upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS through the weekend; however, there continues to be some nudging to the east which could bring the upstream trough further east towards the Upper Peninsula.
In general, upper level troughing will persist over the northern Rockies during the short term period, with high pressure aloft over the southeast and lower Mississippi River valley region.
The upper level ridge remains positioned over the region. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s near the coast to near 101 degrees across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. After morning lows in the low to mid 70s, similar afternoon temperatures will develop tomorrow.
322 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Favorably diffluent upper flow remained over the region this afternoon in the wake of yesterday's upper ridge, but earlier scattered showers and storms had since exited into western Oklahoma. Models agree that a belt of stronger upper tropospheric winds (about 60 knots at 300 mb) will overspread the region throughout the day ahead of broad upper troughing extending through the Desert SW. Opted to keep high temps cooler than today given less downslope flow component, but MOS has trended suspiciously warm which the midnight forecast crew will revisit.
Low temps tonight expected to be in the lower 70s interior se GA and the Suwannee Valley Region of ne FL.
Otherwise, it looks like the low clouds/fog are mixing out. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ General upper level troughiness continued over Southeast Texas early this morning.
345 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and much warmer to eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Highs on Saturday should top out in the lower 80s across the area. Low temperatures the next two nights will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The pattern will reflect troughing through the northwest third of the nation with ridging over the Southeast.
A cool upper trough will linger over the area tonight then shift east on Saturday.
345 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure will persist through Saturday.
Another wave over Utah should bring another round of mainly showers to the CWA this evening, with some snow possible over the highest peaks. Pcpn should end Saturday morning with the passage of the main upper trough. A cold front will move across the CWA this evening with mins falling into the 40s over much of the CWA, with some 30s over western valleys.
High pressure will provide for dry weather through Saturday morning. Then, a cold front will stall over northern Indiana late in the weekend and interact with a warm, moist and unstable air mass.
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure builds tonight. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and stall over the area by Saturday evening.
500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas will provide subsidence across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands the rest of the afternoon into this evening. VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
Upper low is situated over the Idaho and western Montana border area. As upper low shifts east tonight we expect height falls and isentropic wrap around to hit our western and central zones good and eventually push north and east tomorrow hitting the eastern sections again. System should wind down by tomorrow evening as upper low lifts quickly into North Dakota as jet max rounds its southern flank.
The main center of the low pressure system is currently over the intersection of Montana/Wyoming/South Dakota and it is lifting to the northeast. The low will move off to the east causing the precipitation to steadily decrease from west to east throughout the night. This is where the best potential of widespread freezing conditions will occur by Saturday morning, so a freeze warning has been issued for the valleys of Lincoln county.
Strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the cold front is contributing to deepening cumulus development from north-central into western NE. This will encourage the southward advance of the surface cold front through the area with afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 80s over southeast NE to mid 60s north of the boundary across northeast NE.
A low pressure system will move out of the central Idaho mountains and through the upper snake highlands near Island Park tonight. Precipitation will wrap around the backside of the low and slide through the northern much but not all of eastern Idaho tonight.
422 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather through the weekend.
Meanwhile, an upper trough continues to dig across the Colorado Rockies, which will provide the upper support for additional storms for this weekend. A cold front will push across the central high plains to the Oklahoma/Kansas state line by late Saturday evening. Hail and wind will be the main risks across the marginal area, while the low level inversion cap will decrease the chances for convection to the south of the risk area.
A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and much warmer to eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Highs on Saturday should top out in the lower 80s across the area. Low temperatures the next two nights will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The pattern will reflect troughing through the northwest third of the nation with ridging over the Southeast.
For Saturday, sfc cold front moves into MN, taking with it the vast majority of llm and instability.
This baroclinic zone should be further enhanced by the cooler air pushing inland and increasing low-level moisture. Guidance continues to hold onto the dominant upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS through the weekend; however, there continues to be some nudging to the east which could bring the upstream trough further east towards the Upper Peninsula.
KJB 127 PM CDT After a period of relatively quiet weather, the southern stream will become more unsettled as the high amplitude long wave upper level pattern trends toward more zonal flow. By Saturday night, the upper trough over the west will move out over the central plains. The parent upper low over the Canadian Rockies will also progress east, helping to break down the upper ridge over the east.
The good news is that there shouldn't be much additional smoke being produce now that temperatures are cooler and fire activity decreasing as result.
18z surface data has low pressure over central Nebraska and high pressure over the Ohio Valley. A front ran northeast from the low into eastern Lake Superior. Once the clouds break up, very warm conditions will be seen across the area with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
251 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather through the weekend.
Aloft, an upper level trough is moving through the northeast towards Wyoming. This will change overnight, as a cold front will be pushing through our area, increasing cloudiness and lowering our temperatures. Come Saturday, we will get a nice break from the warm high temps we have been having, with highs ranging from the low 70s near 80 degrees.
Meanwhile, cannot rule out a few stray thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening over western KS along a lee trough/dryline.
Initially, a weak upper trough over the northern gulf coast combined with daytime heating and increasing moisture will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the weekend. The best moisture, and thus the highest rain chances, will be across acadiana and into southeast Louisiana today and Saturday.
This was producing surface cyclogenesis over the Central Plains with increasing moisture transport ahead of this low into our area. low pressure will lift northeast across western MN, drawing the surface cold front a bit further east into central MN through northwest IA. Otherwise, look for a rather muggy overnight with lows in the middle/upper 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. The cold front oozes ever so slowly eastward toward the area on Saturday, extending from northwest WI through south central MN by late in the afternoon. Vigorous mid-level trough rotating northeast into the easter Dakotas. northwest MN drives the surface cold front across our area Saturday evening/overnight.
A low pressure system has exited the state, bringing much cooler air into the Battle Born State.
There should be quite a temperature contrast across the area today, as warm air surges northward ahead of the low - reaching the southeast/far east counties.
Low pressure and an associated cold front will remain to our west with the LLJ and mid level energy focusing precip to our west and northwest. We will remain within the warm sector with 925 temps reaching the lower 20s celsius. So highs will be in the 80s with some cooler temps evolving as onshore component takes shape.
A much drier and slightly cooler air mass has spread across northern Arizona in the wake of yesterday's trough passage. The entire forecast period will feature seasonable temperatures thanks to persistent troughing over the western United States. Despite cooler temperatures, there will plenty of sunshine today into the weekend.
1247 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 An upper ridge will build across the area today ahead of a developing low pressure system over the plains. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night due to increasing low-level moisture and persistent southerly flow. To the west, cyclogenesis continues just lee of the Rockies as an upper trof traverses the Rockies. As such, have trended temps with the warmer guidance, some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average. With sly to swly flow thru the lower levels, do not anticipate the fnt being pushed very far into the CWA as suggested by some prev mdl cycles.
133 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 241 AM CDT Benign weather continues under an upper level ridge. JEE 127 PM CDT After a period of relatively quiet weather, the southern stream will become more unsettled as the high amplitude long wave upper level pattern trends toward more zonal flow. By Saturday night, the upper trough over the west will move out over the central plains. The parent upper low over the Canadian Rockies will also progress east, helping to break down the upper ridge over the east.
Hard to tell for sure but it appears there could be a little kink in the flow heading into southern Nebraska at 19z, which does somewhat match up with the right entrance region of a jet max swinging around the eastern side of the upper level low over northeast WY. While the low level jet is strong it does wane a bit through the night so not expecting the convection to congeal into an organized MCS at this time. The diurnal range will not be very large on Saturday with the lows clouds in place.
Cold front will propagate east and will be on the eastern fringe of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon.
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Warmer weather has returned to the mid state, and looks to stick around through the duration of the forecast.
An upper ridge will move inland tonight and Saturday for dry weather with increasing mid and high clouds.
Overnight lows will be a little warmer than last night with temps in the low/mid 60s. If you were not a fan of the cooler weather recently, then this weekend is looking great with temps mainly in the mid 80s! However, cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm either afternoon.