Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK IF PRECIP OCCURS OVER THE FAR SE A LIGHT MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO JUST RAIN BY MID MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LAKE WATER COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BUT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY NEAR 30KTS NEAR SHORE.
348 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAIRLY NARROW AREA OF PCPN IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
109 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
308 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A TROF EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES. NW FLOW ALOFT WAS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THAN WHAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WAS MOVING INTO IN.
WITH EVEN LOWER 70S A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
254 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015 Upper trof and frontal passage this morning sees clearing skies behind it as pcpn chances depart with the system to the east.
1144 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE BE FORECASTING A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-46 WHERE COOLER TEMPS SUPPORT MAINLY ALL SNOW. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF U. ANOTHER SFC FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH.
258 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLIDING A WARM FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR BEGIN TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM WESTERLY WINDS PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE PROGRESSED AS FAR EAST AS THE I-29 CORRIDOR. SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH 925 MB TEMPS EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY THAN YESTERDAY SEE NO REASON IT WILL NOT WARM WELLINTO THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
1137 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THAT HAS BEEN THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TODAY. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
336 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
338 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW IN BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV/MD. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE RIDGES MONDAY MORNING.
A MID LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING IN BY EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF SHOULD EXPEDITE THE CLEARING FOR A TIME.
Cold front had passed through Kansas by early afternoon with gusty northwest winds in deepening mixing resulting. Wind speeds increase a bit from the southwest by late morning, but not anywhere close to speeds of today in modest pressure gradient and weaker speeds to 850mb as a minor low pressure trough passes with the upper wave.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL. STILL ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. BUT IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS VARIED FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY AS WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS PERIODICALLY LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SELECTING THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND DISCOUNTING THE NAM. MINIMUMS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
205 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT ON SUNDAY ARE PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 6F TO 11F DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOONS VALUES WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN VALUES MEASURED TODAY IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE SLIGHTLY TO THE COOLING. WHICH WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT WARMER.
BUT PUSHES THE FOG INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN AND MONUMENT VALLEY. PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL APPEAR QUITE LIMITED WITH OROGRAPHICS FOCUSING THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE RIDGELINE OF THE ELK MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT BY THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
307 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015 While surface cold front has already pushed into Indiana, a 500mb trough axis lingers further west across central Illinois early this morning. Airmass behind the cold front is of Pacific origin, with 08z/2am upstream temperatures across Iowa/northern Missouri in the lower to middle 30s. Have therefore gone 3-5 degrees above the warmer MAV numbers, resulting in highs ranging from the lower 40s north of the I-74 corridor to near 50 degrees across the far southwest around Jacksonville.
226 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND END WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. DRYING OCCURS QUICKLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE AREA.
CIRRUS BAND RUNNING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE MOST PART WILL DROP SOUTH OF CWA BY DAYBREAK AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH CLEAN HOUSE. THIS WEAK FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND SHIFT AND WILL HELP TO STIR THE AIR A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR AN OVERALL WARMER NIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. /ISSUED 341 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ UNSEASONABLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT OCCURRING WITH FROPA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE: Sprinkles that flaired this evening along the cold front over our far SE counties should exit the CWA by next hour, while secondary area of sprinkles/flurries over se IA will rotate SE and possibly clip our N counties over the next few hours. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Weak cold front now stretches from near Pittsfield southwest to near Springfield Missouri. There won't be a blast of Arctic air this time, though overnight temperatures will be a little cooler than they were last night.
1116 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015 A cold front has pushed through the forecast area early this afternoon. Monday night a cold front will pass through the area signifying a mid-week cooling trend despite temperatures remaining above normal for mid January. The cold front will be forced through the area by an upper level trough that will be digging through the Upper Midwest.
THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
257 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015 Upper ridge building in from the west will continue recent mild wx period.
1153 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MAN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA SUN. JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST. DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS FA TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
A DRY COLD FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR WITH FOG RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AND VFR RETURNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. /ISSUED 404 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ TODAY TEMPS MANAGED TO CLIMB THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SOUTH WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
For North Central Washington, an elevated warm layer will make it into the Waterville Plateau and Wenatchee area overnight with surface temperatures near freezing. Given marginal temperatures for freezing rain near 32F this does not look like a major event. an elevated warm layer shows up in the models south of Lake Chelan resulting in a freezing rain threat. Surface temps this evening in these areas are a bit cooler with readings near 30F. so its possible some freezing rain could occur at the tail end of this precip event late tonight into early Sunday morning. pockets of freezing rain. The freezing rain threat will be mainly at KEAT but with surface temps expected to remain near 32F significant icing is not expected.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. TODAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY FOR MID JANUARY (IF YOU LIKE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS). MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN STATES. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY MON. TROUGHING SHOULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES.
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT AND MEDIOCRE DELTA T'S WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHLAND WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING VCT SITE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN TODAY WHERE HIGHS WILL EASILY HIT 60. A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS IS A VERY EFFICIENT MIXING DIRECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE LOW AND EVEN MIDDLE 60S. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING SE TX. /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. ITS DURATION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT (A COUPLE OF HR) GIVEN THE EMINENT APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTLINE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT 18Z. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. TRIMMED BACK POPS TO JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL COMPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PEAKS WITH ADEQUATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MODEST MID- LEVEL COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA NORTH TO BRITCOL.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. VERY LITTLE SURFACE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
346 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE RIDGE SHUFFLES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR OUR REGION BECAUSE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CREATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AROUND 00Z SHIFTING WINDS TO LIGHT NORTHERLY.
1238 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH END OF THAT RANGE IN THE TYPICAL FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.
THE DEVELOPING TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE NW TONIGHT-MONDAY WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MOVING IN.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SELECTING THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND DISCOUNTING THE NAM. MINIMUMS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BRINGING STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD OR EVEN A HIGH QPF EVENT AT THIS TIME; THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY AND THE GFS INDICATES LIGHT QPF SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES MIGHT NOT BE RULED OUT ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
356 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORM AFFECTING THE NW U. WILL MIGRATE INTO SASKATCHEWAN TODAY AND TONIGHT SETTING UP A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
329 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
Energetic mid level trof moving ESE from the Plains and across the region tonight, coupled with a surface frontal passage, will result in increased cloud cover.
DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING HAS MADE IT TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH AR AND CURRENTLY CLOSE TO KLIT. /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ CURRENTLY SEEING A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WHICH IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF KHOT AND KLIT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
Also added a small threat for freezing rain from Toole County through to northern Fergus County. Precipitation could be rain or snow or freezing rain or a mix of these types of precipitation. For this latter area precipitation should be either rain or snow with just a small threat for freezing precipitation.
337 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015 (Today and Tonight) The cold front that passed through the forecast today is now into deep south Texas. Lee side troughing will develop over the Panhandle this afternoon with surface pressure gradients the tightest over the Panhandle. The Interstate 10 corridor will be a little cooler with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
NAM BUFR SOUNDING CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS PROFILE WITH THE GFS AROUND FREEZING AND THE NAM ABOVE FREEZING AT BRASSTOWN BALD. BUT GIVEN SUCH LOW QPF AND MARGINAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD AT THE SFC AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS DRY.
349 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MOVG ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA VERY DIFFUSE ATTM.
LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT MAY OCCUR AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THE HIGHEST POPS I CAN GO AT ANY TIME IS JUST 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
/ISSUED 247 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/ UPPER TROUGH TO EXIT THE PANHANDLES TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/ UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/MD. BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
949 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DID INCREASE SNOW TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN. CONTINUING THE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
609 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin county, with several foot+ reports. Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most locations.
516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 UPDATED FOR REDUCED FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SUBFREEZING AIR HAS FINALLY REACHED ALL THE COUNITES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS PAST HOUR WITH VERY PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. HAVE REDUCED THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR THIS REGION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS FOR THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. EXCEPTIONS MAY BE WHAT APPEARS TO BE NUISANCE VIRGA/SHOWERS WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN NM THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ONE UNLIKELY CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKES SHAPE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
515 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 A SURGE OF WARMER AIR SHOULD MOVE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN AND SWEEP EAST TO NEAR HIGHWAY 183 BY LATE AFTN. A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BELOW 700 MB. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME. WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND APPALACHIANS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE EARLY TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST. WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL TRACK. THE HIGH MOVING EAST AND FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF. FOLLOWING THE LOWS OF AROUND ZERO IN THE EAST 1/2 TO 5 TO 10 IN THE FAR WEST.
WITH AFTERNOON READING STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 21 46 26 / 100 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 17 39 23 / 100 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 17 42 23 / 100 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 14 38 20 / 100 10 0 0 TN.
828 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A LEE TROUGH OVER THE STATE. AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THEN DISAGREEMENT INCREASED SHARPLY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT A COLD TROUGH WOULD AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW AND QPF. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING AND DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON THU.