Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light rain or snow possible in the east tonight and Tuesday morning, with a low chance of freezing rain. Today, a transient ridge will give way to open-wave troughing over the Northern Plains. Tonight, strong 850mb southerly flow and the arrival of a relatively richer low level theta-e air mass should saturate the lower atmospheric column. A mix of light rain or snow is possible, with lower confidence in light freezing rain (or drizzle) depending on if temperatures can fall below freezing. With southeasterly flow and ample cloud cover expected, temperatures should stay near or above freezing for the most part. Otherwise on Tuesday skies should clear from the west as high pressure builds. A cold front will bring colder temperatures with highs in the north only reaching the 20s or low 30s.
An upper trough along the western CONUS will be moving farther inland today, with flow aloft transitioning southwesterly ahead of the deepening western system. Look for temps to remain on the cool side given the increasing and thickening cloud cover with most areas averaging in the 40s, but it'll feel even cooler with increasing south winds with gusts over 30 mph. Energy with the western trough over the Rockies tonight will split, with a closed low developing in the central Rockies, with this system on track to emerge onto the plains Tuesday in western KS and trek northeast into NW Missouri Tuesday night.
420 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 A cold front is currently making its way across north and central GA with NW winds picking up and temps falling into the 40s. Next 24-36 hours will be dry and quiet as high pressure remains in control. Temps will be seasonally cool with highs (today) ranging from the mid 50s over far north GA to the lower 70s across our far southeast counties.
Today should be fairly quiet as an upper ridge moves briefly into the area. The southeasterly winds will continue to bring increasing moisture at the low levels, and there will be some warm air advection to provide some lift in addition to the approaching upper wave. NAM and GFS model soundings show the potential for freezing drizzle, with dry air aloft in the dendritic growth layer. Given the uncertainty of model soundings and forecasting drizzle in general, confidence is not high but any freezing drizzle could create impacts. Following the the passage of the upper level trough on Tuesday, a rather progressive pattern aloft is expected to continue.
354 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 High pressure is currently building into the area from the northwest early this morning. The high will slowly move to the east tonight and Tuesday.
/Issued 420 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020/ A cold front is currently making its way across north and central GA with NW winds picking up and temps falling into the 40s. Next 24-36 hours will be dry and quiet as high pressure remains in control. Temps will be seasonally cool with highs (today) ranging from the mid 50s over far north GA to the lower 70s across our far southeast counties.
A weather disturbance and cold front will bring light snow to much of northern, northeastern and central Nevada today but accumulations are expected to be light. Ridging and dry conditions settle back into the area Tuesday before another upper-trough makes its way into the Great Basin region. This will bring more opportunities for light snow before a drier and warmer pattern moves in for the later part of the week.
High temperatures Today will be very similar to the past few days, and may even be a few degrees warmer, especially east of the Divide. Post-front, high temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit cooler than today, but only by a few degrees. Brief ridging sweeps through Tuesday night, but is quickly pushed east by the next trough racing southeast along the Rockies.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Early morning water vapor imagery shows a trough deepening over the Intermountain West. Precipitation will be light over most of the area until Tuesday when better forcing nears the area as the trough rotates across the Central Plains. Confidence remains relatively low regarding the exact track of the trough and heavier QPF, however. The higher likelihood for the snow accumulations will be over west central Wisconsin where the thermal profile is colder. There will also be a concern for freezing rain/drizzle, which could end up being the greater impact from this system, although where that threat looks higher (west central into central MN), QPF is lesser.
An upper trof will be moving across the Rockies today, pushing a front into the northern plains. Southern portion of the trof is expected to form a partially closed low as it moves through the desert southwest, keeping gulf moisture from moving north. Ridge builds back into the region midweek as another trof digs into the Pacific northwest. This trof is also expected to split with a closed low developing over the southwest states. The northern stream remains progressive with another ridge and trof moving east over the weekend. Some lower cloud may move into the region with Canadian high pressure tonight, resulting in MVFR conditions early Tuesday morning.
417 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 The forecast focus will be on precipitation type and amounts late tonight into Tuesday night with a trough of low pressure moving through the region. The models are in pretty good agreement keeping the track and bulk of the precipitation of the stronger area of low pressure south of the Northland tonight into Tuesday night. At this time, we expect freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be possible during the day, first over our western areas, with chances working their way east reaching northern Wisconsin during the evening. For now, we expect snow amounts to range from a half inch to around two inches for most areas, with a bit more along the higher terrain of the North Shore due to lake and orographic effects.
An upper level trough will dig south into the southern Plains on Monday night and into Tuesday. Rain also has the potential to change over to snow after midnight across the Pine Ridge region as colder air pushes in behind the developing low to the south.
Today Through Tuesday Night High pressure both at the surface and aloft will migrate eastward across Arkansas today bringing dry conditions with light north to northeast winds. On Tuesday, moderate low level southerly flow will develop across the state as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The developing southerly flow will cause low level moisture and instability to increase ahead of a surface cold front associated with the low pressure system that will move southeastward across the forecast area sometime after sunset Tuesday night. There is currently a marginal risk for thunderstorms area-wide during this period as limited instability and shear combine with the lift in the southeastward-moving surface cold front. Highs this afternoon will range from the lower 50s over the higher northern terrain to near 60 over the far south.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening in eastern Colorado. The problem this time of year is that it is very difficult to achieve strong enough instability for very large hail given the low sun angle and difficulty in eroding low stratus to achieve instability.
230 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Alberta, with cold front stretching south across western MT and a warm front across eastern MT into western SD. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge moving east across the plains and a trough moving east-southeast across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin region. Cold front will move into western areas during the afternoon. Passing cold front tonight will bring some cooler air and breezy conditions for Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
330 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 Early morning water vapor imagery shows a trough deepening over the Intermountain West. Precipitation will be light over most of the area until Tuesday when better forcing nears the area as the trough rotates across the Central Plains. Confidence remains relatively low regarding the exact track of the trough and heavier QPF, however. The higher likelihood for the snow accumulations will be over west central Wisconsin where the thermal profile is colder. There will also be a concern for freezing rain/drizzle, which could end up being the greater impact from this system, although where that threat looks higher (west central into central MN), QPF is lesser.
A much cooler airmass continues to flow into Middle TN thanks to northerly winds and the cold front that pushed through a few hours ago.
Surface analysis depicts a weak cold front extending from New York State southward along the East Coast and across north Florida. High pressure centered over the Central Plains is gradually bridging across this front, bringing gentle NNE flow down into the Keys. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a weak mid level trough well east of the Bahamas, while a mid latitude trough is sliding eastward through the eastern CONUS in support of the surface cold front.
347 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 An elongated area are of high pressure stretching from southern Canada southward through MO and AR will shift east into the forecast forecast area today. As the high moves farther east tonight/Tuesday, winds will turn more southerly and a modest warming trend will take place. Models have now slowed a bit with the progression of the mid/upper level low pressure system and its associated surface front through the Plains Tuesday night. Mid level forcing and a surge of moisture northward from the lower MS River Valley will lead to widespread showers developing from west to east across the forecast area Tuesday night.
617 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 A cold front will be pushing east of the forecast area this morning, bringing drier and slightly cooler air back to the region to start off the week.
347 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 As a weak ridge axis slides across the area moving eastwards, we begin to see the influence of our upcoming system changing our flow aloft from northwesterly to west/southwesterly. Our far eastern counties in central IA and MN as well as areas near the Missouri River in central SD could see some snow during the overnight hours, but with surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing will likely only see a light dusting of snow. As the upper level low tightens and becomes a closed off low, the latest model runs have moved this feature further south, which will move the axis of heaviest precipitation off to our south and east.
637 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Scattered light rain and snow showers are possible today behind the cold front. Frontal showers have exited the area with the cold front. Light, scattered rain and snow showers will develop this morning and afternoon with the crossing upper trough and lake enhancement. Sfc temperatures will be marginally supportive for mixing in snow in areas this morning, and so, outside of a dusting possible in the ridges and north of I-80, accumulation is not anticipated. Dry weather is expected Tuesday under a building ridge.
Snow levels are forecast to be around 4000 feet today, with snowfall amounts being relatively light through the day (up to 4 inches at the highest peaks of the Cascades). This front will bring some breezy to gusty winds to areas east of the Cascades, especially for some of the higher terrain (Winter Rim, maybe highway 31 between Summer Lake and Paisley, the Warners).
Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, and for some areas very close to seasonal normals.
528 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 [Through 12Z Tuesday] A cold front was moving into southeast Georgia this morning, and the low stratus and fog was shifting eastward ahead of the boundary. The showers and sprinkles will shift eastward ahead of the cold front. Patchy to areas of dense fog were developing across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley early this morning ahead of a cold front as well. The weak dry cold front will push into southeast Georgia this morning, and then south of the area by the late afternoon. Light northwest to northerly winds will prevail today behind the cold front, with winds shifting to the northeast tonight as high pressure shifts east. Lows tonight will be cooler behind the cold front.
/issued 354 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020/ High pressure is currently building into the area from the northwest early this morning. The high will slowly move to the east tonight and Tuesday.
The front is being driven southward by a mid-level trough traversing the region. Cooler tonight with M-U50s across the interior, L60s for Volusia/N.
552 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 High pressure will bring mostly sunny and cool weather to central and southeast IL today.
524 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 As a weak ridge axis slides across the area moving eastwards, we begin to see the influence of our upcoming system changing our flow aloft from northwesterly to west/southwesterly. Our far eastern counties in central IA and MN as well as areas near the Missouri River in central SD could see some snow during the overnight hours, but with surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing will likely only see a light dusting of snow. As the upper level low tightens and becomes a closed off low, the latest model runs have moved this feature further south, which will move the axis of heaviest precipitation off to our south and east.
539 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 The forecast focus will be on precipitation type and amounts late tonight into Tuesday night with a trough of low pressure moving through the region. The models are in pretty good agreement keeping the track and bulk of the precipitation of the stronger area of low pressure south of the Northland tonight into Tuesday night. At this time, we expect freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be possible during the day, first over our western areas, with chances working their way east reaching northern Wisconsin during the evening. For now, we expect snow amounts to range from a half inch to around two inches for most areas, with a bit more along the higher terrain of the North Shore due to lake and orographic effects.
Looking at radar and satellite imagery, a weak cold front is currently around Corpus Christi and will continue to push south this morning. With onshore flow returning this afternoon, low temperatures are expected to be in the 60s across South Texas with high temperatures tomorrow ranging from the lower to upper 80s. Behind the front high pressure will settle in across South Texas before the arrival of the next cold front later this week.
Current satellite imagery this morning shows that clouds are beginning to increase across Montana as an upper level trough pushes into the area from the west. The only real impacts from this upper level trough will be a few snow showers over the mountains of Southwest Montana and along the Continental divide.
/issued 439 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020/ A dry cold frontal boundary is continuing to push southward this morning, resulting in overcast skies and lower dew points overspreading the region. Clouds expected to begin clearing by mid-morning, and CAA behind the front will result in cooler afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s inland to low/mid 70s nearer to the I-10 corridor and Gulf Coast.
439 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 A dry cold frontal boundary is continuing to push southward this morning, resulting in overcast skies and lower dew points overspreading the region. Clouds expected to begin clearing by mid-morning, and CAA behind the front will result in cooler afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s inland to low/mid 70s nearer to the I-10 corridor and Gulf Coast.
1252 PM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Progressive westerly flow will continue to become more active as passing upper troughs trend more amplified. Splitting long wave upper trough continues to advect east into the region. Sfc cold front will shift through the area tonight supporting breezy spots over NW SD late tonight into Tues. CAA will offer slightly cooler conds most areas, but better mixing will allow temps similar to todayâs numbers over NW SD. The next progressive trough will shift into the region Tues with ridging ensuing and lasting int Wed. This will support slightly warmer conds by Wed, after which another cold front will bring cooler conds for Thanksgiving Day.
Ridging will then build across Wyoming for Tuesday.
At this time, a ridge has moved over the Quad State while, at the surface, high pressure is moving through, keeping winds light and variable tonight.
Clear and cool tonight as high pressure builds north of the region and expect widespread lows in the 40s across SE GA and inland NE FL while some return Northeast flow will develop along the Atlc Coast late tonight with a few clouds possible by morning and this will hold Min temps up in the 50s at the Atlc Beaches and into the St Johns River Basin south of Jacksonville.
A weak low pressure system will cross the region this afternoon through tonight.
Cold front has stalled past the offshore waters into deep South Texas this morning. A weak cold front is pushing through this morning which will result in winds shifting to the northeast before becoming southeasterly again this afternoon around 21z.
119 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 A weak cold front will continue slowly push its way across our area today (currently in SWFL) bringing in lower dewpoints under a north/northeast breeze. However, the lower dewpoints along with clear skies and lighter winds north of I-4 tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s so it will be a rather pleasant Tuesday morning before slowly warming back up into the upper 70s and lower 80s as mid- level ridging builds over the area.
200 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 (Issued 200 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020) Tonight and Tuesday: Lower level anticyclone shifts east with low level thermal/moist advection increasing throughout the night. Based on collab with KARX and KDVN decided to hoist on advisory in our west closer to some of the higher amounts in concert with the peak morning travel.
303 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Cooler weather today and especially Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds behind a cold front.
Motorists need to be aware of patchy areas of Freezing Fog ahead of the Monday morning commute. Some bridge decks and shaded areas may become slippery and prove hazardous. Scattered light showers will become possible for locations along and north of the Highway 54 corridor this afternoon. We did favor the warmer side of guidance for afternoon temperatures despite lingering fog and high clouds moving in. Daily highs in the low-to-middle 50s seems plausible as a warmer air mass advects in from the Southern Plains.
Tight pressure gradient out ahead of the low across western and central KS. This low and trailing cold front will then shift east through the area during the nighttime Tuesday night. Wind speeds will increase tonight and become gusty on Tuesday with the approach of the low.
1154 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 A cold front has pushed east this morning, bringing drier and slightly cooler air back to the region to start off the week.
1053 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 The forecast focus will be on precipitation type and amounts late tonight into Tuesday night with a trough of low pressure moving through the region. The models are in pretty good agreement keeping the track and bulk of the precipitation of the stronger area of low pressure south of the Northland tonight into Tuesday night. At this time, we expect freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be possible during the day, first over our western areas, with chances working their way east reaching northern Wisconsin during the evening. For now, we expect snow amounts to range from a half inch to around two inches for most areas, with a bit more along the higher terrain of the North Shore due to lake and orographic effects.
A cold front stretched across southern Alabama this morning will continue pushing through the CWA today. Highs will be slightly cooler though with the upper 60s across the north to the mid to upper 70s to the south.
Cold front has stalled past the offshore waters into deep South Texas this morning.
Expect to see an increase in high and mid cloud overnight ahead of low pressure system moving through the Central Plains.
Otherwise the on-going forecast is well on track, with light snow possible over the mountains today and slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday. /ISSUED 432 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020/ Current satellite imagery this morning shows that clouds are beginning to increase across Montana as an upper level trough pushes into the area from the west. The only real impacts from this upper level trough will be a few snow showers over the mountains of Southwest Montana and along the Continental divide.
An elongated area are of high pressure stretching from southern Canada southward through MO and AR will shift east into the forecast forecast area today. As the high moves farther east tonight/Tuesday, winds will turn more southerly and a modest warming trend will take place. Models have now slowed a bit with the progression of the mid/upper level low pressure system and its associated surface front through the Plains Tuesday night. Mid level forcing and a surge of moisture northward from the lower MS River Valley will lead to widespread showers developing from west to east across the forecast area Tuesday night.
1002 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Scattered light rain and snow showers are possible today behind the cold front. Thermal profiles support generally a snow to a rain/snow mix, which along with meager moisture and lift, will limit any snowfall accumulation to the higher terrain and locations near Lake Erie. Otherwise, expect slightly below seasonal average temperature as cool air settles into the region behind yesterday's cold front, with occasional gusty aftn wind amid a tight sfc pressure gradient and steepening low level lapse rates. Dry weather is expected Tuesday under a building ridge, with increased insolation likely despite increasing cirrus.
A weak cold front is still forecast to push through the Florida Keys late this afternoon and this evening.
1016 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Alberta, with cold front stretching south across western MT and a warm front across eastern MT into western SD. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge moving east across the plains and a trough moving east-southeast across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin region. Cold front will move into western areas during the afternoon. Passing cold front tonight will bring some cooler air and breezy conditions for Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Not much else happening in our CWA this morning as a weak upper trough moves through.
(Tuesday night through next Monday) A compact upper low will skirt across Oklahoma and Kansas Tuesday evening, with an associated cold front moving south across West Central Texas Tuesday night.
342 PM EST Mon Nov 23 2020 Today Drier air advecting over the region today, as a 500 hPa ridge of high pressure progresses over the Florida panhandle. The eastern periphery of this ridge will induce cold air advection over the region, further supported by pressure rising at the surface. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be seasonably cooler, with upper 70s/lower 80s across the region. With a low-level trough forecast to progress over the region Monday night/Tuesday morning, a north/northeasterly wind will cause a drop-off in dewpoints temperatures and hence a slight decrease in apparent temperatures as well.
High pressure will keep its hold on the area through Tuesday. After a seasonably chilly start in the morning, the ridge will sharpen a bit as a strong H5 trough rolls out of the southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon, and thus expecting daytime high temps to be a few degrees above normal. High pressure ridge shifts east northeast as deep trough moves into the Tennessee Valley.