Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
327 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry other than isolated showers through tonight. As a result, focused the highest POPs across the Pee Dee and LBT areas during Monday. The cold front will barely move into western Alabama at the surface as the cutoff low is stationary. Along the coast, the high pressure will remain with a southerly flow.
351 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain showers will continue to pass through the region late today, with isolated embedded thunderstorms tomorrow due to a weakening low pressure system overhead. Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will continue to allow for broad ascent via vorticity advection. Aforementioned low pressure positioned over southern Michigan will continue to erode within the upper level flow on Monday.
The cloud line now extends across the Lower Keys and is starting to produce showers. High pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic coast is still maintaining moderate northeasterly to easterly breezes.
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 The mid level low has made its way to Chicago, and cloud cover on the back side of the low is slowly thinning and moving off to the southeast.
Ridging extends from the Four Corners through the Rocky Mountains and into the northern Plains. while a trough is digging from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks. Good model agreement that this trough will become cut-off over the southern Ozarks/Mid-South through the middle of the week. At the surface, a cold front extends from the Wabash Valley into western Kentucky, with weak areas of low pressure centered over central IL and central AR.
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 The pattern remained blocked with RAP analysis 500mb heights showing a rex block over eastern Canada with our area remaining under the influence of an upper level trough moving under the northern ridge. Though Monday the blocking over Eastern Canada breaks down and the ridge shifts east. Additional ridging begins to build into the central US, extending from the eastern Rockies / High Plains to MN by Monday evening. Meanwhile, weak troughing over the Great Lakes today begins to cut off under the building ridge and sink south.
Drier air at the doorstep! A slow-moving and weak cold front, currently located between College Station and west of Harris County will continue to make its way to the coast this evening into early Monday. Overnight lows in the low 60s are expected far inland (northwest counties) and in the low 70s along the coast.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 78 64 74 65 / 50 30 40 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 77 62 77 64 / 60 40 30 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 63 77 61 76 63 / 60 30 20 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 77 59 77 62 / 60 50 20 70 60.
Winds will turn more southwesterly Monday, as the upper level ridge shifts eastward over the Plains.
244 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of the upper trough located to our north.
1030 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Temperatures have been warmer in the Panhandle than our hourly temperatures suggest. We'll have quiet weather the next few days as a ridge of high pressure moves over Wyoming.
144 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Mississippi River Valley this morning with a closed low in the Canadian Maritimes and a ridge in the desert sw. The trough slowly moves east to the lower Great Lakes by 12z Mon.
Upper level ridging will strengthen over the western United States, while a troughing pattern develops over the Great Lakes states. Skies will be clear and high pressure will build over the region in the morning. This puts highs in the low 80s across western and north central Nebraska, about 10 degrees above normal for early October. Winds shift to the south tomorrow overnight as a lower level trough develops west of the High Plains. The ridging pattern will exist over the Great Plains through most of this week. The ridge and dry upper atmosphere will keep precipitation out of the forecast through the workweek and skies mostly clear.
A narrow upper level high pressure ridge will sharpen over New Mexico while low pressure digs into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Isolated (hit-or-miss) showers are expected this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front that is currently located south of a line from KCLL to KUTS.
307 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Vertically stacked low pressure is now over eastern Wisconsin, with a weak cold front extending southward through the Wabash Valley and the Pennyrile. Baggy trof remains in play at the sfc and aloft through Monday, and that could keep the weather unsettled even in the face of PWAT values dropping to around 1 inch by the end of the day. Max temps will be close to seasonal normals, with dewpoints in the lower 60s to provide a slightly muggy feel. A cut-off low will slowly drift from the Lower MS Valley up into the OH Valley over the course of the work week resulting in daily rain shower and thunderstorm chances, mostly diurnally driven, before upper ridging moves in from the west for what should result in a dry weekend.
1251 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows weak upper level trough over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. Underneath the upper level trough stratus deck/drizzle or light rain showers were occurring over southeast Minnesota/western Wisconsin per latest metars/KARX radar. Weak forcing/lift in association with the upper level trough will continue to produce the possibility of light rain showers mainly along and east of the Mississippi River today. A few storms are possible with the upper level trough passage. Surface/upper level ridge builds into the Upper Great Lakes Region Tonight into Monday. Cooler airmass is expected to advect into the forecast area today with 925mb temperatures cooling down to plus 9 to plus 11 degrees celsius by 12z Monday.
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A weak cold front remains just to the northwest this afternoon and GLH wind came around to more northwesterly on the last ob. In the trough associated with the front.
Hennig (Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough is centered over the Midwest with westerly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. There is a possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two from the Lower Trans Pecos southward to the Rio Grande today with dewpoints reaching the 60s. Upper ridging begins to strengthen over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Monday resulting in an end to the rain chances.
Cooler air filtering into central and southeast IL behind today's cold front should limit temperatures a few more degrees Monday, with highs ranging from lower 70s toward northwest IL and mid 70s toward southeast IL. A highly amplified upper level large scale ridge will develop by midweek, causing remnants of the system over the Midwest today to cut off and meander around the lower Mississippi Valley through Midweek, likely lifting northeastward across the vicinity of central IL later in the week.
1256 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue to pass through the region late today and into tomorrow due to an advance low pressure system. Scattered to isolated showers will continue to cross the region as a trough continues to advance into the Ohio River Valley. The trough will cut off and dig south into the Mississippi River Valley; the chance of severe storms will once again be very low. Convection will become more isolated by late Monday evening/night as high pressure builds to the west and drier air aloft prevails.
223 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 THe main trough axis now east of the region will keep showers relegated to the far eastern portions of the Ozarks region through this evening and cloud cover aver the area into tonight. Northerly winds will continue as the trough shifts east. A second trough will round the top of the amplifying ridge over the plains and slide into the region overnight. The second trough will make its was through the Ozarks during the day Monday, while todays trough develops into a cutoff upper level low, with little fanfare as skies look to be mostly sunny with continued light northerly winds, A few gusts to 15 mph may occur during the afternoon, but otherwise it will be a nice day with highs in the middle 70s.
Forecast soundings are showing a slightly drier atmosphere below 700mb tomorrow due to a gradually building upper level ridge over the Rocky Mountains.
With the upper level trough over the Great Lakes deepening as the workweek begins, our northwesterly flow will become northerly, funneling in drier air than the ArkLaTex has seen this past week. The aforementioned upper level trough will ultimately transition into a large closed low over the ArkLaMiss.
242 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 The pattern aloft this afternoon features a trough lifting over the Great Lakes region with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the mid-Atlantic coast, with an easterly low-level flow continuing across the local area.
Late in the week, another system may bring another round of precipitation, with snow possible for the high terrain of the eastern Sierra. Cooler temperatures and occasionally breezy winds are likely, especially the second half of the week.
Models keep upper ridging over the CWA tonight and Monday with weak flow aloft and benign synoptic scale forcing. For temperatures, tonight's lows will be a bit warmer than this morning's. Monday's highs will be a tad warmer than today's highs at well.
We'll see an upper level ridge move into the central plains early this week while a closed upper low wobbles around the Arkansas/Missouri region. Eventually by late week an upper level trough will develop across the western United States and the closed upper low to our southeast should gradually lift and track further away from our area and towards the Ohio Valley.
246 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Upper ridge is building over the northern Rockies and high plains with clear skies across the entire forecast area. Most of the week will be warm and dry as the upper ridge builds, then shifts to the east as an upper trof deepens along the west coast, keeping southwest flow over the northern Plains.
155 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic tonight but stall overhead and linger throughout the week, which should bring a prolonged period of clouds and showers. Confidence is high for clouds and showers late tonight and Monday as a cold front arrives from the west. Clouds are increasing from the west as a cold front crosses the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. A potent upper level low over the Great Lakes accompanies this cold front, so most of the dynamical energy will stay to the north. Temperatures have been tweaked cooler where clouds and showers are arriving. Meanwhile, it should be another unseasonably warm day east of the Blue Ridge. Cloud cover will increase further eastward tonight, and the potential for showers should spread toward the Blue Ridge.
Large H50 cutoff low forms over the lower- mid MS Valley late Mon. Surface ridging will continue north of ECFL with a persistent, but light onshore flow. Slow increase in moisture expected late Mon/Mon night as low level flow veers to SE, near/west of an approaching trough axis.
A mild and dry forecast remains in place as a mid-level ridge builds across the Northern Plains through the first half of this week. As the ridge builds, a cutoff low forms over the lower Mississippi River valley. Meanwhile, an even warmer airmass is expected to spread east across the forecast area for Monday afternoon, with half kilometer temps pushing a few degrees higher vs Sunday. In light of what occurred this morning, tonight's lows will again likely be just a touch under NBM, especially in the low lying areas. An upper level trough will dig along the west coast of Canada and into the Pacific Northwest through midweek. This will cause an upper level ridging over the region, which will produce warm and dry conditions.
644 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 An upper level ridge shifts into the western Atlantic into early this week. Unsettled conditions are expected as a deep upper level trough develops over the eastern U. Upper trough to our west, with upper ridge offshore. A closed upper level low pressure system over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will advect low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into The Midlands and CSRA early this week. A wedge of cooler air is likely to develop in this pattern, therefore reduced temperatures a few degrees during the day.
The S/W trof axis moving through the region this evening will transition to a closed midlevel low across the southern Great Lakes tonight into the day on Monday. This increasingly- vertically stacked system will drift south slowly during the daytime period as another S/W digs along the western periphery of the broader-scale trof axis.
/issued 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021/ Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low centered near Chicago. A trof axis extended south of this low through west TN and northwest TN. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted on radar in advance of the upper trof axis, primarily over north MS.
However, still watching a band, or at times, line of scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface cold front moving eastward into central Kentucky. Models agree on the trough amplifying and closing off an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley during the period.
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure will remain the primary feature through Monday. The upper pattern will become more amplified early to mid week as a mid level trough digs into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and eventually closes off into a low.
An upper level low pressure system off the southern CA coast will send some high clouds northeastward mainly across southern parts of the forecast area tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build northward over NM on Monday decreasing cloud cover. With an upper level ridge aloft, temperatures on Monday will rise and should be near to above normal area wide.
/EC/ A weak cold front remains just to the northwest this afternoon and GLH wind came around to more northwesterly on the last ob. In the trough associated with the front.
903 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry other than isolated showers through tonight. As a result, focused the highest POPs across the Pee Dee and LBT areas during Monday. The cold front will barely move into western Alabama at the surface as the cutoff low is stationary. Along the coast, the high pressure will remain with a southerly flow.
Widespread cooler temperatures are expected with chances of light mountain showers and breezy winds at times. High pressure remains situated over California today and tomorrow bringing light winds and above normal temperatures.
754 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure will remain the primary feature through Monday. The upper pattern will become more amplified early to mid week as a mid level trough digs into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and eventually closes off into a low.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: A weak cold front remains just to the northwest this afternoon and GLH wind came around to more northwesterly on the last ob. In the trough associated with the front.
622 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 The mid level low has made its way to Chicago, and cloud cover on the back side of the low is slowly thinning and moving off to the southeast.
GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: Strong ridge hangs in there for the first half of the week.
511 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Upper ridge is building over the northern Rockies and high plains with clear skies across the entire forecast area. Most of the week will be warm and dry as the upper ridge builds, then shifts to the east as an upper trof deepens along the west coast, keeping southwest flow over the northern Plains.
Vertically stacked low pressure is now over eastern Wisconsin, with a weak cold front extending southward through the Wabash Valley and the Pennyrile. Baggy trof remains in play at the sfc and aloft through Monday, and that could keep the weather unsettled even in the face of PWAT values dropping to around 1 inch by the end of the day. Max temps will be close to seasonal normals, with dewpoints in the lower 60s to provide a slightly muggy feel. A cut-off low will slowly drift from the Lower MS Valley up into the OH Valley over the course of the work week resulting in daily rain shower and thunderstorm chances, mostly diurnally driven, before upper ridging moves in from the west for what should result in a dry weekend.
Confidence is increasing over a pattern change later on this week, generating cooler and wetter conditions across the region.
837 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain showers will continue overnight, with with isolated embedded thunderstorms tomorrow due to a weakening low pressure system. Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will continue to allow for broad ascent via vorticity advection. Aforementioned low pressure positioned over southern Michigan will continue to erode within the upper level flow on Monday.
906 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 (Issued 906 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021) Expect scattered showers to continue through the late night as upper low moves slowly east from southern Lake Michigan across southern lower Michigan. Kavinsky (Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Low pressure over southern Lake MI pulling away slowly. Still some hang back troughiness.
far Northwest Arkansas may have the higher chances for some dense fog with visibility below 1 mile at times.
1014 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A cloudline developed over the lower Keys this afternoon and lingered initially into the early evening before dissipating. These showers took shape across the Straits of Florida off the lower Keys and persisted until just recently.
Weak high pressure will remain over the region through at least Monday with a continuation of dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures.
412 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 The main trough axis now east of the region will keep showers relegated to the far eastern portions of the Ozarks region through this evening and cloud cover over the area into tonight. Northerly winds will continue as the trough shifts east. A second trough will round the top of the amplifying ridge over the plains and slide into the region overnight. The second trough will make its was through the Ozarks during the day Monday, while todays trough develops into a cutoff upper level low, with little fanfare as skies look to be mostly sunny with continued light northerly winds, A few gusts to 15 mph may occur during the afternoon, but otherwise it will be a nice day with highs in the middle 70s.
721 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain showers will continue to pass over the region tonight, with with isolated embedded thunderstorms tomorrow due to a weakening low pressure system. Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will continue to allow for broad ascent via vorticity advection. Aforementioned low pressure positioned over southern Michigan will continue to erode within the upper level flow on Monday.
Models agree on the trough amplifying and closing off an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley during the period.
822 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge southwest across Florida keeping a relatively stable environment with predominant easterly winds over the Florida peninsula. High pressure north of the area will keep a predominant easterly wind flow in place for the next few days.
The main trough axis now east of the region will keep showers relegated to the far eastern portions of the Ozarks region through this evening and cloud cover over the area into tonight. Northerly winds will continue as the trough shifts east. A second trough will round the top of the amplifying ridge over the plains and slide into the region overnight. The second trough will make its was through the Ozarks during the day Monday, while todays trough develops into a cutoff upper level low, with little fanfare as skies look to be mostly sunny with continued light northerly winds, A few gusts to 15 mph may occur during the afternoon, but otherwise it will be a nice day with highs in the middle 70s.
240 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 An upper level ridge shifts into the western Atlantic into early this week. Unsettled conditions are expected as a deep upper level trough develops over the eastern U. An upper trough to our west will increase moisture transport across the region through the period. The closed upper level low pressure system over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will advect low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into The Midlands and CSRA early this week. A wedge of cooler air is likely to develop in this pattern, therefore reduced temperatures a few degrees during the day.
152 AM MDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Across the region this morning, high pressure over the central Plains is providing clear skies area-wide. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, along with the current mid level water vapor imagery, is showing a building amplified ridge over the Rockies making a slow shift eastward towards the Plains region. There is an upper low over the Great Lakes region, and another off Baja California. Latest guidance for the short term period keeps the upper ridge in place over the Tri-State area.
Today Through Tuesday Night To begin the period, the cold front that pushed through the area yesterday is located east of CWA along with an upper level trough. This trough will keep some clouds around the area in the short time with rain chances increasing late in the period. Highest PoPs are expected for eastern portions of the state as the upper level trough pulls away from the MS valley bringing wrap around moisture into the CWA around Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures in the 60s.
308 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Another fine day is on tap for West Texas as we will be positioned beneath amplifying ridging and on the western periphery of a developing closed low across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
-A quiet and mild week ahead -Warming up this weekend An omega blocking pattern continues to form with a cut-off low forecast to develop across the Mississippi Valley and another across southern California. In our neck of the woods we will remain on the periphary of the upper-level ridge bisecting the CONUS. This means we'll likely see dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures, especially for the end of the week. The Mississippi Valley low may retrograde a bit mid-week and this could bring slightly cooler temperatures and cloud cover to the area. Surface ridging will keep quiet conditions in place throughout the period, with VFR conditions and just a light north wind.
A mostly clear and seasonal night is in store for tonight, as well, with lows in the low to mid 50s. The main story for the middle of this week will be an upper level low becoming cutoff over the lower Mississippi Valley while an upper level ridge simultaneously builds over the upper midwest and Great Lakes region.
Forecast challenges deal with fire weather Monday and possibly Tuesday as high pressure remains in place across the area. Upper ridge begins to shift east Monday afternoon with southwesterly winds returning west of the ridge axis. Winds still looking light for Tuesday as upper low tracks from western Wyoming into central Montana.
/issued 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021/ Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low centered near Chicago. A trof axis extended south of this low through west TN and northwest TN. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted on radar in advance of the upper trof axis, primarily over north MS. The upper low will gradually deepen by Tuesday, at it's center moves from central AR to the MS River delta southwest of Memphis. Nonetheless, a few cold air funnels will be possible Tuesday afternoon, particularly over delta, given the favorable terrain and immediate northeast proxmity to the upper low center.
1219 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Rain showers will continue overnight, with with isolated embedded thunderstorms tomorrow due to a weakening low pressure system. Aforementioned low pressure positioned over southern Michigan will continue to erode within the upper level flow on Monday.