Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
2: Strong cold front set to plow through KICT Country late Fri Night/early Sat Morning. This would induce pronounced lower-deck troffing from eastern MT to the OK/TX panhandles. As the continually strengthening, positively-tilted wave moves across the northern & central plains late Fri Night & early Sat morning, it'll kick a strong cold front SE across the region late Fri Night & early Sat morning. The S-SW winds occurring ahead of the front will send temperatures soaring, especially across southern KS where highs in the upper 70s to even the lower 80s are now likely with the hotter temps across Harper and Kingman counties. Dry weather will dominate these periods as a broad upper-deck ridge, though deamplifying, spread across the northern plains on Sun.
A weak cold front over Central Texas moves into South Central Texas by early Thursday allowing for winds to become light and variable and gulf moisture to pool south of the front. /issued 253 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500 mb ridging will remain in entrenched over Mexico and the western Gulf coastline throughout the end of the workweek. Because of the persistent 500 mb ridging in combination with the pretty strong diurnal heating effects will lean on the high side of the short term temp guidance especially for tomorrows highs.
/issued 313 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ Temperatures are cooler today in the wake of a weak cold front, which has nearly made it to the Rio Grande this afternoon. Tonight will be a little cooler than the previous several nights, though still above normal, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s for most.
/issued 340 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ The cold front has cleared the area with the clouds lingering across the southern part of the area.
411 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front is just beginning to enter our far northwest zones in Southeast Oklahoma. The line of showers and isolated thunderstorms that had developed along a pre-frontal trough from Southeast Oklahoma, through Arkansas, and into the Ohio River Valley has almost entirely dissipated.
Surge of colder air will result in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s during the evening. Low level cold air advection behind cold front will result in low clouds over southern WI for much of the night. Surface pressure gradient remains tight into Thursday morning then high pressure builds in from the west for the afternoon easing the wind field.
643 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Cooler air will continue to settle across the region tonight.
Unfortunately H850 theta_e advection ahead of the next system will lead to clouds increasing throughout the day on Thursday so don't be fooled by the widespread sunshine currently ongoing to the west over the high plains.
This trend may continue as cold air advection begins to wane and short wave ridging begins to spread in from the west. Surge of colder air will result in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s during the evening. Low level cold air advection behind cold front will result in low clouds over southern WI for much of the night. Surface pressure gradient remains tight into Thursday morning then high pressure builds in from the west for the afternoon easing the wind field.
537 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure moving across the area tonight will keep things clear/mostly clear and quiet overnight. Flow quickly turns southerly tomorrow and we should warm back up close to normal with highs in the low to mid 50s.
A broad area of high pressure will sink southward across the eastern portion of the region tonight. A developing low pressure system west of the region will strengthen the pressure gradient after 6Z with winds becoming southerly over the western CWA. The low pressure system will reach western SD by 18Z with strong southerly winds expected for this CWA. The highest winds should occur between the Missouri and James River around 15Z, then the James Valley eastward between 18-21Z. With 925 mb temps around 0Z in NE SD should produce temps in the upper 30s, to the lower 40s.
Still expecting the cold front to move through later this evening.
931 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Showers this evening, with cold front crossing tonight. High pressure crosses Thursday night.
553 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 134 PM CST At 100 pm this afternoon, a cold front was in place from near UGN south-southwest to near PNT. High pressure will build across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley midday Thursday then slide east across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana through the afternoon. Winds will veer to the north and diminish as this occurs, and eventually switch to an east to southeasterly direction behind the ridge axis during the afternoon.
704 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front will approach the forecast area from the west tonight.
Fairly weak upper level flow will continue over our area tonight as a longwave trough axis moves across the Southeast. A broad area of high pressure at the surface will continue to build southeastward into our area. Still, with winds going calm under the influence of the high pressure system, widespread overnight lows in the 40s are expected.
/Issued 347 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ A weak cold front has pushed southward across the area today, with breezy north winds developing in its wake. The front will then lift back north early Thursday as a warm front, spreading clouds and moisture back up across the area.
421 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary nearly stationary across the area, from far northeast WY to south central SD, with high pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows trough over the Great Lakes region, with ridging over the Rockies, and a low off the Pacific NW coast. Skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny across the area as some high clouds spill over the ridge.
516 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Mid-level ridging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the High Plains will gradually dampen while building east into the Great Plains tonight into Thursday. This pattern evolution will yield slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday, in addition to gusty south winds.
Latest sfc analysis was indicating that while the main cold front was moving eastward acrs the western GRT LKS, the real cold push was noted acrs western WI into northeastern and central IA ATTM. Late afternoon temp-contrast from the lower 30s in the far northwest, to the mid 50s in the south.
400 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 W-SW flow aloft expected to turn a little more southwesterly and increase in velocity Thursday ahead of approaching Pacific trough.
There has been some increase in moisture in the profile since this morning, primarily in the lower levels. /issued 328 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ A northerly stream trough is currently racing east across the northern half of the country. Because of its lack of amplification and northern latitude, the cold front associated with it will stall before ever reaching the CWA. A gradual rebound in temps is likely over the later half of the week as that trough lifts and column heights rise.
747 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will move off the New England coast today.
Cold front passing through the region late this afternoon will bring an end to the light rain and drizzle now occurring over much of the area.
545 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front was located just north of the DFW area during the past hour and was making slow but steady progress south. Isentropic lift will develop overnight as low level flow veers in response to a deepening West Coast trough. Conditions may improve a bit faster at KACT where the warmer airmass will be in place earlier in the afternoon. /Issued 240 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ As the cold front makes its way through the region, radar trends show a few transient light showers. A temperature gradient across the CWA will reflect the position of the frontal boundary, with southeast portions of the area keeping warmer temperatures while the rest of the region cools off.
That said temperatures are in the low 70s to upper 60s and surface dewpoints are higher in the mid/upper 60s so it may not take as much cooling to achieve saturation and fog.
Inverted trough off the east coast will continue to produce a breezy N/NE flow over the waters and along the coast, especially along Volusia and Brevard counties through at least late evening. Temperatures will again be coolest over the interior with lows in the mid to upper 50s, while along the coast cloud cover and onshore flow in the low levels will keep mins in the 60s.
For now, will maintain the dense fog but delay it a bit later since temperatures are warmer today with similar dew points (ergo should take longer to form). Another round of fog is expected tonight as moisture depth increases in the lower levels with drier air present aloft.
Deese Cold dry high pressure over the southern MS valley will drift east along the gulf coast states through Thursday night.
409 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will ridge northeast across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid Atlantic states today.
This would enable the Western Plains surface trof to continue strengthening, eventually undergoing rapid cyclogenesis as it slowly crosses the CO/KS border late Sat night, further enhancing the warming trend across most of KS Sat & Sat night.
This has resulted in a nice rebound in temperatures with several locations now at or above freezing after a very cold start to the day. /Issued 329 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ /Thursday through Wednesday/ The upper level pattern will transition into a more progressive regime with long wave troughs moving into the country from the Pacific. The gates to the arctic will close off and the arctic high pressure cell will gradually dissipate over the Deep South by the end of the week. All of this spells a different (and warmer!) weather pattern that will take hold by this weekend. Another chilly day is in store for Thursday, but with light winds and full sunshine, the highs near 50 in the west and the low 40s in the east will not feel too bad.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Southern Mississippi Valley with lee troughing in place over eastern CO/eastern NM. They track it across the desert southwest Sat night, out into the high Plains by Sun morning, and across central/northern KS Sun into Sun evening.
This weekend, high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s.
334 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Area early this morning was between high pressure centered over the Southern Mississippi River valley and a rather potent mid-level low rotating eastward across southwest Ontario.
Thus despite clear skies, low tonight will be several degrees warmer. The deep upper trough that brought our most recent arctic plunge is lifting out to the northeast. A northward shift in the jet, as western CONUS troughing develops, will allow temps to modify rather quickly as this week wears on.
Light rain will be possible at times during the afternoon and evening over CRP and ALI as well as a coastal trough develops.
This high will move very little the remainder of the night and result in a light and variable wind. Under clear skies and the light wind, strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to bottom out in the lower teens in most areas. Only a few sites have reached freezing today, mainly those along the I-59 corridor. However, they will be quickly back below freezing within the next hour as we begin to lose insolation. Of course, that also means temperatures will still be dangerously low, with most areas expected to bottom out in the lower teens. Tomorrow under full sun, we should see the entire area return to above freezing, though some locations may only make it into the mid to upper 30s across the Delta and Hwy 82 corridor.
Unlike yesterday we will start the day in the about 15 to 20 degrees warmer in the teens.
High pressure at the surface is settling into the Tennessee Valley late this evening, reinforcing a cold, dry, stable air mass across the region. This very cold air has also caused some refreezing of melted snow in some areas, creating patchy icy/slick spots once again. Given the subfreezing air, some freezing fog may occur late tonight into early Thursday morning. This could cause some localized icing issues on river bridges and will mention this in the HWO/SPS as well.
Upper level ridge builds across the area today as trof begins moving into Pacific Northwest.
416 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U.
Otherwise, expecting mostly clear skies the next couple of days as upper ridge axis traverses the region.
High pressure in place over the southern Mississippi River Valley will continue to slowly slide southeast. keeping a warmer and drier westerly flow of air to Central Indiana. The next best chance for rain will be late this weekend and early next work week as a low pressure system approaches from the west. High pressure was centered over Arkansas at 7 pm, with satellite loop showing some cirrus spilling down into northern and northeastern parts of the forecast area.
Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather Thursday into the weekend, with moderating temperatures this weekend.
409 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Surface analysis reveals a cold front is pushing through South Florida and into the Florida Keys this early morning. Locally, temperatures range from the low to upper 50s across the island chain, and dew points have dropped into the 40s, with the Marathon ASOS reporting a Td of 34 degrees as of 4am EDT. The cold front will continue to drop temperatures and dew points significantly this morning as continental air creeps down the spine of Florida and bleeds into the island chain. This afternoon and overnight, the New- England low pressure system pulls well off the coastline, dragging our cold front away as the gulf-coast high sinks southeast into the FL Panhandle.
318 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 A weak cutoff low will meander over southwest Texas this morning, with perhaps enough lift to produce light snow over the Big Bend region into the Lower Trans Pecos.
So for lows tonight, we should see temperatures fall into the low to mid teens.
247 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018 The ridge over the Great Basin will slide east and over Colorado today as a deep trough off the west coast begins to move inland.
436 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Latest water vapor imagery loop displays the cyclonic spin of a low pressure system centered over North Carolina. WPC analysis indicates a cold front draping south and southwestward from this feature, extending across the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and a cold airmass will help to lower minimum temperatures near Lake Okeechobee to the lower 30s.
Otherwise the rest of the short term should remain benign with a dry ridge dominated regime and clear skies.
This should mean snow accumulations of generally an inch or less, along with some patchy freezing drizzle at times as well. High temperatures are expected to be even warmer on Thursday, with most locations settling into the 30s for daytime highs.
Earlier there was some rain reported, but temperatures were 34 or warmer. On the back side of this system as the precipitation moves out, there may be a brief period of freezing drizzle as there is a short period of lingering low level moisture as the higher levels dry out. Have stayed fairly close to guidance for highs, rising into the low to mid 30s.
1237 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U.
1225 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Low pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes overnight.
Weakening high pressure will move from Arkansas to Alabama during the short term. Took temperatures cooler still in sheltered valley locations. With a lot of sunshine tomorrow and a southwest breeze the mercury should rise to around the freezing mark. Return flow behind the high and zonal heights aloft will result in warmer temperatures for us.
1230 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure centered over the Plains will build into the Tennessee Valley this evening. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week. This high will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures.
Continued westerly flow over the next 24 h will continue to bring warmer air into the area. While the flow is not perpendicular to the Buffalo Ridge, there is a strong enough cross-ridge component as well as strong thermal inversion to keep wind gusting over 20 mph through Thursday. While there is some snow on the ground, its impact will not real significant - maybe keep temperatures 3 to 5 degrees cooler than if it fully mixed out. For this reason, have raised highs into the 40s everywhere with the lower 50s in south central South Dakota.
341 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure ridge in the Gulf Coast states with low pressure in Canada. This will bring warmer air into the cwa beginning the snow melt process.
This dry airmass, combined with ridging initiating aloft, make for a simple forecast. This combined with a downslope SW wind component will push most locations west of US 283 into the lower 60s this afternoon. Atmosphere continues to warm and 850 mb temperatures climb overnight, as longwave ridging aloft establishes over SW KS.
We will continue to see increasing cloud cover well downstream of a very strong Pacific low pressure area right off the coastline of British Columbia.
105 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure builds in through Thursday.
952 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Not much to speak of today, weather-wise, as the remnants of a weak upper level trough exit our area and transitory high pressure builds in.
At the surface, high pressure is in control with light westerly winds across the area. Western upper ridge will hold across the area for the next couple of days, with Thursday being the warmest day.
Therefore, the main update this evening will be to do slight warming in the W-NW areas where warmer air will arrive first, and slight cooling in the SE counties. A more noticeable warming trend will start on Thursday, as highs climb to freezing or above for the first time in a few days. Even warmer temps are on tap for Fri-Sat-Sun, with increasing rain chances late this weekend. With high pressure drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley, winds have started to turn southwest across central Illinois. The warming trend should begin in earnest on Thursday, as temperatures reach above freezing over the CWA. Upper ridging will build eastward through the end of the week, with the warming trend continuing.
The bias corrected blend was cooler than the straight guidance blend by several degrees across the partial to nearly completely snow covered areas. The high clouds, snow cover and/or frozen ground are the basis for undercutting guidance. This was a couple of degrees warmer than the straight guidance blend.
With SFC ridging expected to move east of our region on Thursday, this will result in light southeast to southerly winds across all terminals during the day Thursday as well with speeds less than 10kts. /issued 956 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ The center of a cold high pressure is basically directly overhead. Most locations will still fall into the lower to middle teens, and some single digit readings are likely in the more outlying and rural areas.
Slowly departing Eastern Seaboard upper trough makes way for rising heights and drier westerly flow.
Little in the way of sensible weather is forecast for tonight and tomorrow with warmer weather on the way.
A few locations have managed to get to freezing, but they are where there is little to no snow. Temperatures will be warmer, but may not reach the potential since the winds are light. The snow will keep temperatures for the northeast part of the forecast area a little cooler since it will take time to melt the snow.
Main issues are with temperatures with building thermal ridge across the Plains and into Iowa.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the open gulf waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida from 0 to 60 nm out including the lower end of Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound east of Pascagoula through 6 CST AM Thu morning. Large dome of arctic high pressure over the deep south continues to bring bitter cold low temperatures tonight and dangerous wind chill values. Although wintry weather precipitation has ended, many roads, bridges and overpasses are expected to see lingering ice which will continue to make for dangerous driving conditions. Thursday will continue cold, but temperatures look to recover to well above freezing.
Significant warming trend expected as the flow aloft backs from northwest to west, inducing an even stronger surface lee trough.
Strong high pressure over the region will maintain clear skies and light winds. Another cold night/morning is in store with the sub-freezing temperatures already observed across the area expected to bottom out in the lower/mid teens north and upper teens/lower 20s south. Nixed the low water advisory a little early with tidal readings above advisory criteria, having just passed the time of predicted astronomical high tide. Strong high pressure over the region will maintain clear skies and light winds. Winds will remain light as the high will be centered over the lower MS Valley.
Temperatures start out in the single digits and lower teens this morning but modification of the shallow arctic airmass will be dramatic with max temps rising about 20-25 degrees into the lower and middle 30s across much of the forecast area today.
If this verifies, there is little reason to believe that in an advection event such as this, and given the nearby downstream temperatures already in the forecast, that colder temperatures (dropping to around freezing or slightly below) will not eventually make their way into portions of northern Pinellas, coastal Manattee, Coastal Sarasota, Coastal Charlotte, and interior Lee Counties. Obviously every location in these zones will not reach freezing. The area of potential freezing temperatures will shrink considerably from what is in place tonight, but portions of the Nature Coast will not escape one additional night of freezing temps.
To the south of these spots, temperatures are generally ranging from the mid to upper 20s inland to the low to mid 30s at the coast. Cloud cover that has been making slow progress to the northeast across our area is partly associated with the slow moving far west Texas area mid/upper level low.
/issued 319 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ Clear skies, and thankfully, warmer temperatures have characterized this afternoon as winds turned to the SSW and thicknesses slowly increased. A weak trough over NM was evident on WV imagery this afternoon, and this feature will pass to our south with little fanfare on Thursday.
Latest sfc analysis was indicating large ridge center settling southward acrs the mid to lower MS RVR Valley, with southwesterly flow acrs the region in it's northwestern flank pressure gradient. A clipper system dives into the GRT LKS on Thu while upstream upper ridge axis nudges acrs the plains for continued moderating temp regime into the weekend.
Warming trend will continue as the mid level ridge axis will be directly over the region.
Overall, made only minor changes to the prev forecast, generally trending twd the cooler guidance. However, did trend warmer across srn portions of the CWA where forests have lower albedo.
We should see highs to near the freezing mark today and lows tonight10-15 degrees warmer than this morning.
306 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 The axis of an upper level trough extending from Quebec to the Southeast Conus continues to move east of the area with surface and upper level ridging building into the region. The snowcover should factor into the picture again tonight with high pressure and light winds. Temperatures should moderate further into the low to mid 40s for most locations or near climatological normals.
A deep trough, currently aligned along the Appalachians will shift east through the short term, with heights recovering across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.