Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
253 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights broad cyclonic flow across the CONUS, with mean layer ridging displaced to the south over the Caribbean. Cooler waters across Hawk Channel and pesky cloud cover has hampered afternoon highs.
The front moves through Sunday, with high pressure building in through mid-week, then another boundary expected for the end of the week.
1142 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 A modified cold front/dryline and daytime mixing are quickly clearing skies from west to east across the area. High pressure will settle over the area tonight, with light and variable winds.
There is dry air in the low levels over southern WI, and since the forcing is stronger aloft, it will take a while for that dry layer to saturate, if it ever does.
106 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Snow will return Sunday with the passage of a low pressure system, with the highest accumulations in the West Virginia high terrain. For portions of eastern OH and northwest PA, snow will primarily fall along and ahead of a weak cold front, with upper forcing tracking north of the area. For the southeast ridges, deeper moisture and closer proximity to the upper jet will allow for more notable accumulations, with the best focus over eastern Tucker where weak upslope will boost amounts. Low end advisory totals are expected for eastern Tucker County, though any slight shift of the low track NW could boost forecasted amounts (and any shift SE lower amounts).
There is some uncertainty however at TYS and TRI that CIGs dip down this low due to downsloping winds overnight. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 48 29 56 41 / 90 10 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 42 26 52 35 / 90 30 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 34 42 26 52 36 / 90 20 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 39 21 50 31 / 90 40 0 0 10 NC.
253 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Broad longwave troughing will span the length of the CONUS through the short term as a disturbance tracks to our south this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the Midwest underneath subsidence aloft. High pressure will be centered over the CWA on Sunday with another disturbance expected to pass to our south. Broad longwave troughing is expected to remain centered across the northern CONUS through most of the forecast period as embedded short waves move through the main flow.
300 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
Tonight, east to southeast winds will give way to northwest winds as a cold front shifts east through the region. /19/ Weak warm advection atop a warm front over the north central gulf, will exist across the area today. Although the rain will end a little after midnight tonight, persistent cloud cover only only weak caa will allow temperatures to bottom out slightly warmer than normal from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s southeast.
Soundings and freezing level analysis reveals a changeover from rain to snow around midnight across the Plateau, and then a few hours later elsewhere. Otw, overnight lows tonight still look like they will range from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s far south.
Surface observations showing that the precipitation continues to fall as rain in that part of the area, with dew points beneath the heavier precipitation well above freezing. As you would expect, mesoanalysis has consistently shown cooling in the lower levels beneath the heavier precipitation to our southwest, with the greatest evidence seen at 850. This band of heavier precipitation will move northeastward, across areas between I-44 and I-40, and it is expected that similar temperature modifications in the lowest levels should occur here. It is within this band that snow could fall locally, but with wet bulb temperatures being fairly high as well, it is looking less likely that there will be an extensive band of notable snow totals, except for perhaps the higher terrain in northwest Arkansas later this afternoon and into the evening.
Overnight low temperature forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s.
The Arctic cold front will move into northern Kansas this morning before progressing southward thru the rest of the state during the early afternoon.
At this time, it appears that the low cigs will stay just east of KGUY, but certainly can't rule out the possibility that the cloud deck might expand further west. Today through Sunday night A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and north with speeds increasing to around 15 to 25 mph and 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts by late morning. The upper flow will transition to more zonal by Sunday night as another upper trough tracks across the northern and central Rockies into the central Plains states. Schneider Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across all of the Panhandles today as a cold front moves through today.
Weak warm advection atop a warm front over the north central gulf, will exist across the area today. Although the rain will end a little after midnight tonight, persistent cloud cover only only weak caa will allow temperatures to bottom out slightly warmer than normal from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s southeast.
1105 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Weak low pressure will develop in the north Gulf of Mexico and track northeast along the South Carolina coast.
/issued 429 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ Chilly and damp conditions acrs the area early this morning as overrunning moisture is lifted atop a relatively shallow airmass behind a cold front that is now situated acrs the cntl Gulf. KLCH radar shows some spotty patches of light rain acrs the area, with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s as of 4 AM. The pattern aloft is noted by a broad longwave trough acrs the CONUS per the latest WV imagery and UA analysis. Rain chcs will begin to taper off this evening as the mid/upper trough axis aloft shifts east, with drier air filtering into the region.
1251 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
A cooler and more unsettled pattern will develop to begin the work week. Utah and southwest Wyoming remain under northwest flow this morning in between a ridge off the Pacific coast and a trough centered over southern Canada. This will keep a bit of snow in place for the higher terrain near the Utah/Idaho border through the afternoon and will also result in some enhancement of winds over southwest Wyoming.
612 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
Little change is expected to the current pattern through the remainder of the weekend as an upper level ridge remains situated off the West Coast. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be several degrees above normal as lower desert afternoon highs top out in the low to mid 70s and some southeast California locations reach the upper 70s. Overnight lows will remain close to normal over the next couple of mornings with lower elevation locales dropping into the low to mid 40s.
The upper low over the northern central Canadian provinces will tend to retrograde a bit during the middle of the week, before progressing to the east again late week. The lone chance for any pcpn during the time frame could be at the end of the period as the upper low threatens the ND/MN/CA border.
An upper trough will be exiting the region this evening. However, surface ridging does work its way further east and north and should cause winds to become lighter, especially over the southern half of the Northland. The lighter winds would support warmer wind chill values but may allow temperatures to drop off even more.
Temperatures are in the low to 50s along and south of I-40 with mid 40s further north. The cold front will push south of the forecast area overnight with brisk northerly winds Sunday morning. Wind chill values could drop into the lower teens. Sunday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today, with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Radar imagery this evening shows light rain has spread across the southwestern half of the forecast area, with reports of flurries in the higher elevations on the leading edge of the precip. On the Plateau where temperatures are already in the mid to upper 30s and surface wet bulb temps are near freezing, precip will likely begin as snow this evening and remain such through the event. Winds will start light and variable, mainly NE, then winds will become north around 10KT overnight after passage of a cold front.
A brief cold front will push any lingering rainfall out of the area and also help to maintain current cool conditions for a short period.
414 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Broad upper trough spans coast to coast across the Lower 48 with its center axis from the Upper Midwest to the southern Great Plains. Forecast challenges during the short term will be snow accumulations with the next short wave trough and strong winds impacting portions of south-central and southeast WY. The aforementioned short wave trough will move southeast along the arctic boundary tonight and Sunday morning. With the arctic front retreating slowly east into the high plains during the next 12 to 18 hours, strong westerly surface winds will become more prevalent, with a belt of 50-60 kt 700mb winds spreading east along the I-80 corridor from early this evening through Sunday.
618 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 At the present, conditions vary across a cold front stretched across the I-44 corridor. South of the front, temperatures are in the low to mid 40s with some light rain falling. Light freezing drizzle will be possible Sunday night, with potential for that to mix with or change to snow depending on moisture/temperature profiles.
250 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 The snow showers from last night and early this morning have all but diminished this afternoon aside from the highest peaks of the Elkhead and Park ranges where very light snow continues. Most snow will taper off Sunday morning with only leftover snow showers and flurries lingering in the highest elevations along the northern Continental Divide through Sunday afternoon. When all is said and done, 4 to 8 inches of total snowfall accumulation will be common with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches possible in the highest peaks. Elsewhere, mild westerly flow aloft will usher in a warmer air mass with temperatures climbing several degrees above normal.
A broad trough of low pressure will continue across much of the contiguous United States into early in the coming week while a narrow but amplified ridge over the E Pacific gradually dampens.
Also went with the cooler end of guidance for max temps tomorrow as the snowpack and persistent clouds will limit diurnal heating.
Unlike today's snowfall, light snowfall is expected to reach our northern counties along the Highway 14 corridor, though those areas likely won't see much more than a couple tenths. Temperatures by late morning should become warm enough to allow for the wind advisory to expire, with afternoon temperatures again looking to reach into the lower positive single digits. With temperatures Sunday night looking to be a touch warmer, light winds likely won't be enough to see advisory level wind chill values, but will still likely reach down into the negative 20s.
/issued 219 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A 500mb trough across the central United States this afternoon will begin to flatten out across the northern tier of the country tonight and become a broad upper level trough as it moves eastward. high pressure will build into the eastern half of Texas tonight but the bulk of the cold air will remain across the northern plains and the midwest United States. Some patchy fog will develop across the coastal sections of deep south Texas tonight before stronger northerly winds develop across the lower Texas coast late tonight. Winds will veer to the southeast Sun night providing warmer temperatures tomorrow night compared to tonight. Will continue to mention patchy fog along the lower Texas coast Sun night even as winds increase across the coastal sections tomorrow night.
A cooler and more unsettled pattern will develop to begin the work week.
245 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Large, broad trough is sitting across much of the CONUS, with arctic air over the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
404 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Large, broad trough is sitting across much of the CONUS, with arctic air over the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
The concurrence of these aforementioned elements with rapidly falling temperatures will create some flash-freezing of area roadways.
An east-west oriented cold front is forecast to sag south into the evening hours over northern OR. There is also the possibility of patchy fog and freezing fog in some valley locations overnight. What we do know is there will likely be some form of an upper ridge of high pressure over the offshore waters, keeping the area under deep westerly to northwesterly flow. How far away that ridge sets up.
320 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 At the present, conditions vary across a cold front stretched across the I-44 corridor. South of the front, temperatures are in the low to mid 40s with some light rain falling. Light freezing drizzle will be possible Sunday night, with potential for that to mix with or change to snow depending on moisture/temperature profiles.
At the surface, strong cold front stretches from northern AR to just south of the KS/OK border. Still decent model agreement that the Polar upper low will retrograde Wed into into Thu from Ontario into southern Manitoba.
401 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 The snow showers from last night and early this morning have all but diminished this afternoon aside from the highest peaks of the Elkhead and Park ranges where very light snow continues. Most snow will taper off Sunday morning with only leftover snow showers and flurries lingering in the highest elevations along the northern Continental Divide through Sunday afternoon. When all is said and done, 4 to 8 inches of total snowfall accumulation will be common with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches possible in the highest peaks. Elsewhere, mild westerly flow aloft will usher in a warmer air mass with temperatures climbing several degrees above normal.
There will likely be some shower activity over central Louisiana and the lower Acadiana area through late afternoon. A cold front is moving into east Texas and is forecasted to move through the region this evening.
136 PM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 Weak offshore flow and high pressure aloft off the West Coast will bring fair and mild weather today.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower 70s, and winds on land are from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts a stationary front across central Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico, with developing low pressure along the front just south of the western Florida panhandle.
850 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
559 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Broad longwave troughing will span the length of the CONUS through the short term as a disturbance tracks to our south this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the Midwest underneath subsidence aloft. High pressure will be centered over the CWA on Sunday with another disturbance expected to pass to our south. Broad longwave troughing is expected to remain centered across the northern CONUS through most of the forecast period as embedded short waves move through the main flow.
A weak surface cold front will be moving across the forecast area this evening. There will likely be some shower activity over central Louisiana and the lower Acadiana area through late afternoon. A cold front is moving into east Texas and is forecasted to move through the region this evening.
530 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered showers will continue this evening ahead of a cold front that will move through the area after midnight. The low ceilings will rise to MVFR by mid morning and clear from the southwest after noon. Meanwhile across us, a cold front will shift east through the forecast area late tonight. This will cause slightly cooler drier air to advect into the region, as high pressure likewise builds south into the forecast area on Sunday.
Getting reports that precipitation has switched to all snow in the higher terrain across southeast Oklahoma where around an inch of snow is likely, possibly up to 2 inches. Still the potential for rain to transition to snow in the higher terrain across northwest Arkansas where up to an inch of snow will also be possible. Cold front has started to move into northwest Oklahoma and will continue pushing south before stalling south of I-40 by Sunday morning.
Additionally, a well-defined atmospheric river is seen in PWAT between the ridge in the east and trough in the west. However, retrograding ridge is expected to nudge the deep moist axis westward some by late in the day perhaps resulting in some expansion of shower coverage back into southeast sections of the area, particularly with even the most subtle perturbation drifting northward within mean flow, given the anomalous moisture. Wet ground, cooler temperatures from today's rain, and weak surface moisture advection tonight will likely result in fog for portions of southeast Oklahoma.
Clear skies, light winds and drier air across the area have made for prime radiational cooling and temperatures just slightly cooler than those yesterday morning. A broad 500mb trough remains over the eastern US with the axis just west of the Appalachians. Towards the end of the near term, the high will be centered over Appalachia allowing for more northerly winds. With the high pressure center now out of the area, winds will be more variable overnight. Anomalously strong upper level ridge slowly retrograding toward the Mississippi Valley during the period.
413 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 A massive ridge over the eastern US will continue to be the main influencer for our weather into the upcoming weekend. The active weather will continue to remain on the western fringes of the ridge across the Mississippi river valley and westward. Lows tonight should fall back into the 50s in the valleys again with ridges staying a bit milder. In the upper levels, we begin Saturday night in the middle of a blocky pattern and under the influence of a strong ridge across the entirety of the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast.
A relative lull in shower activity is expected Friday morning as the low-level jet veers and stronger moisture convergence moves off to the north/northeast. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be just above persistence, or in the low to mid 80s for most locations. Slightly cooler weather is also favored due to the impacts of this surface anticyclone (lighter winds, less sky cover, lower dewpoints). Temperatures are still forecast to be above normal, but lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s which would be up to 5 degrees cooler than 24 hours prior.
/issued 157 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021/ A weak ridge moves over the region today as an upper low over WA/OR sinks southward.
257 AM MDT Fri May 21 2021 08z surface analysis had cold front from western ND to low over southeast WY. Water vapour had upper low spinning over central CA and this will be the main weather maker for the weekend. Today/tonight, upper low moves into northern NV as southwest flow strengthens ahead of it over the northern plains. Generally around 1KJ/kg MLCAPE available with rather strong MLCIN, except perhaps right on the cold front, especially if stratus doesn't make it all the way into south central SD. Saturday, upper low moves little as cold front slides east of the CWA.
310 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure extending from the waters off Nova Scotia to the Middle Atlantic states early this morning will slide southwestward today and Saturday.
This will occur as low pressure to our west weakens further and high pressure surface and aloft build into our area from the east. With less convection and cloud cover, temperatures will top out a couple degrees warmer than this afternoon.
There is still a cold front progged in the models to work into western South Dakota later this evening, and gradually into Corson/Dewey counties by 12Z Friday.
145 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will support summer-like temperatures into Friday. There's a better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this weekend with the passage of a cold front. Upper ridge axis will remain across the area with dry and mild conditions expected Friday night. It will be slightly cooler with more cloud cover, but highs still will make it into the upper 70s to lower 80s at most locations.
318 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021 Upper pattern continues to feature the blocking high encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS, with a trough still deepening over the western half. This looks to remain the case throughout the day as the high expands and the low stays in place. Dry weather is then expected for the evening and most of the overnight before another surge of moisture pushes north along with a weak wave rounding the outside edge of the ridge.
1111 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
The windy conditions decrease from east to the west as the ridge builds over from the east. In short, an elongated deep ridge strengthens and builds westward through the region. Lows tomorrow night will be in the lower 60s north of Highway 84 and will range to the mid to upper 60s along the immediate coast. A continued tight MSLP gradient in association with the building ridge from the east/northeast will result in increased E/SE winds into the early evening hours, especially near the coast with speeds between 15-25 mph with frequent gusts around 35 mph. Some wave run- up/overwash and resultant flooding due to the high surf may continue along some lower lying coastal areas through the end of the week, along with localized beach erosion.
Deep layer ridging is anchored in place across eastern CONUS, leading to warmer temps and near zero chances for precip. Expect overnight lows in the low 60s with daytime highs in the upper 80s.
1147 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 VFR conditions through the period as the southeast Michigan airspace remains under the influence of expansive high pressure. The lowered heights and meridional moisture plume has been responsible for the rather unimpressive/ragged shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of IA/WI/MN. Locally, Southeast Michigan resides within the internal thermal ridge with warm midlevel temperatures at 12. Absolute vorticity progs support the ridge folding over with a true AVA signal during the afternoon for better compressional warming potential. Think highs tomorrow should be a couple of degrees warmer, but given the environmental temperature profile and the inversion feel there is a very firm upper limit to what highs can achieve.
1254 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021 For the 21/06Z TAF update, the pattern of high pressure to our east and low pressure to our west continues to position a corridor of moisture across our airspace. The best chance for VFR vis/cigs is for KMLU by the end of the period as high pressure gradually shifts westward.