Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Arctic high pressure across western Kansas has been slowly receding eastward this afternoon with lowering pressure in the lee slopes of the Rockies. The increasing southerly flow across the western High Plains is allowing a relatively warmer airmass from west Texas back into far western Kansas. MOS guidance suggests temperatures ranging from the 30s around Hays to the low 50s around Elkhart. A wind shift will move through the area Thursday morning and northeasterly upslope winds may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast. An upper level low pressure system over the Northwest Territories will move southeast toward the upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday.
While the eastern part of the forecast area will not rise above freezing today, along and west of U. 65 should have near freezing to above freezing readings this afternoon as this air mass continues to shift east and we have rising upper heights. The northwest flow aloft pattern will not give much of a reprieve as the next Arctic cold front will push into and through the area Friday night.
An arctic cold front will drop through Friday night, setting the stage for a very cold weekend to end 2017.
Currently GOES16 and METAR obs show the leading edge of stratus advancing farther north across portions of Ford, Gray, Haskell and Finney counties while appearing to maintain it's western limit near the Highway 25 corridor. As this slug of 850 mb level strong warm advection shifts east this morning into eastern Kansas, surface winds will veer more southwesterly in advance of a north ward shift behind d a weak cold front by mid morning. Much of the area will see 40s by late morning, with even Hays reaching highs above freezing. Behind the cold front this evening temperatures should plummet quickly back through the 20s and into the teens overnight.
309 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure over Ohio will move east today as low pressure moves from the Dakotas to Minnesota.
Accumulations of an inch or less are expected with the highest amounts in southwest Michigan. Overnight lows will be warmer though.
Latest GOES-East Water Vapor loop clearly shows a mid-level trough dropping southeast across southern southern Saskatchewan Canada. Another push of Arctic air will spill into the area Friday while a wave of low pressure moves out of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains.
Otherwise, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the region with primary upper low over the northern Prairie provinces.
Looks like areas such as Cheyenne through Bordeaux may be laying right in the trough axis with the tighter pressure gradient to the west. Since I do not see the front moving any further east through the remainder of the afternoon, went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning for the south Laramie Range and Bordeaux. Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warning through Thursday morning for Arlington.
The high cloud cover, which was over the area yesterday and was thick enough to bust forecast highs, has thinned and cleared SE Arizona. The upper ridge will strengthen over the area today and Friday resulting in well above normal high temperatures with a few locations near late December record highs. The last full weekend of 2017 will see slightly cooler daytime temperatures but they will remain well above normal. 2018 starts off with continued above normal high temperatures, although slightly cooler than what closes out 2017.
Dry atmosphere in place, with the high nearby, will need time to moisten up. Light fluffy snow will break out ahead of low pressure system currently over lee of Rockies from MT thru WY and south. Arctic high pressure returns on Friday bringing another surge of cold air into the region.
The overall pattern continues to be very cold as the persistent long wave trough across most of North America, east of the Rockies, holds through the upcoming weekend.
A weak cold front and some clearing skies late tnt will drop temps back into the single digits for Fri AM.
Currently, the arctic high pressure center was over Iowa/Illinois, and a warm front was advancing from the west, with southeasterly surface winds and attempting to scour out the very cold arctic air. Mid clouds, and eventually lower level clouds developing in the west (resulting from the warmer air moving up and lifting over the arctic air) will continue this afternoon and overnight. The warm front and cloud cover and retreating of the arctic air will result in overnight low temperatures from around zero to 5 below for southern ND, and from 5 to 15 below for northern counties.
/issued 428 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017/ Synopsis: A large mid-upper level trough is over eastern Canada extending down to the eastern Great Lakes. A mid-upper level E-W ridge continues to be located to our south over the Caribbean. A weak frontal trough is stalled over the NE Gulf, extending ENEwd over N FL.
Otherwise moisture and warmer air will continue to spread east across the outlook area overnight, in advance of the next Arctic front. Guidance points to single digit lows, which in some cases will be 10-20 degrees warmer than last night. Subsidence aloft will provide for some clearing with highs in the teens for the north, near freezing across the south.
1120 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 In the mean a deep cold trough will dominated the weather over much of North America. At the surface two massive anticyclones of arctic origin will push across our region.
Main difference is the highlighted fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast is still on track for warmer days followed by bitter cold weather. Mid week the upper level pattern begins to modify and becomes more northerly as a large amplitude ridge moves on shore from the Pacific. This morning any residual moisture could create freezing fog conditions area wide, with the densest fog developing on the Caprock.
Minor changes to overnight lows in the far east-southeast as latest CONSHORT is a few deg warmer and with some sites beginning to steady off or even rise now, CONSHORT seems on track. The question is how much drop off there will be this evening before the warmer air starts moving in. Think the higher impact for wind chills will be Thursday night as the system exits off to the east and skies clear.
1015 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 High clouds have moved over northern parts of the area this afternoon with the approach of a weak upper level trough in dry northwesterly flow. High pressure over the desert southwest will keep the rest of the area clear this afternoon and evening. Mid level warm advection will warm things up heading into the weekend with some valleys reaching the low 50's.
The last traces of the low clouds, fog and flurries are finally exiting the southeast corner of Colorado this afternoon. The high valleys are in the 40s to around 50. Lingering low clouds and fog across the lower Arkansas River Valley and far eastern plains should dissipate pretty quickly during the morning leading to generally mild conditions during the afternoon. This will produce stronger w-nw winds across the higher terrain, which will at times translate down to the lower levels and help warm, depending upon the MSLP pattern. Dry conditions, as warming downslope flow pushes temps into the 50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the eastern plains.
Tonight Through Friday Northeast winds continue to help cold air spill into the state this afternoon, with the northern half of the state not expected to top the freezing mark today. High pressure at the surface will settle in over the state tonight with the center drifting east over the Ohio River Valley. In fact, temperatures on Thursday across northeast Arkansas may stay at or below freezing through the afternoon hours once again.
North breezes will flow off of strong arctic high pressure crossing the Great Lakes. Thursday and Thursday night the core of the frigid high pressure system will move off to the northeast and weaken, allowing for some moderation in temperatures (but still chilly).
1240 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure crosses today.
240 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure crosses today.
Overnight temperatures in that area should be at or just above freezing but dew points will be lower. This could support a mix of light rain and freezing rain during the evening into the overnight.
The evening wx map showed the center of 1043mb Arctic high pressure over northern IL, extending down into TN. Delta-T 850 mb values will be on the increase so we should warm up to anywhere from the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far south.
252 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Brrr is the word this morning across Middle Tennessee with surface observations showing current temperatures ranging from the lower teens in northern zones to the upper teens down south.
The high pressure drifting across the Great Lakes is leading to a weak pressure gradient, resulting in calm or very weak winds overnight. As the high pressure drifts just east of the area, southerly winds will take over by the afternoon. This will allow some slight warm air advection of a few degrees at 850 mb into Michigan resulting in a slight warm up to near or reaching the low teens. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to reach above freezing into the single digits for much of the area.
354 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes and New England today. Weak low pressure develops off the Southeast coast Thursday night through early Friday, before arctic high pressure returns for this weekend into the new year. The high slides east today, with continued CAA across the Mid Atlc. Decreasing clouds behind the departing wave on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid 30s N to the low 40s SE.
A gradual improvement to warmer temperatures mid-week but temperatures remaining below normal.
241 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic airmass retreated across the plains today bringing in warmer and windy conditions to the area, finally relieving us of single digit temperatures from this morning. We can see a wide range of max temperatures ranging from the 50s in our southwestern CWA to the low 30s in our northeastern counties. Models are showing an amplified ridge over the western U.
Large upper trough persist across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS today. Temps across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills have reached the 20s and 30s, as warmer air continues to push into the area.
The mixed precipitation event in the valleys (rain, freezing rain, snow) is still on track for tonight through Friday morning as the inversion is expected to hold in place. With the arrival of the warmer air aloft, there is a chance of freezing rain in the valleys tonight through Friday morning, including the Treasure Valley. Elsewhere, temps will be colder but will trend 5-10 degrees warmer on Friday.
1154 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure over the Northeast will ridge into the forecast area bringing dry, cool weather through Thursday. Developing low pressure to our southeast may bring a chance of freezing drizzle to the southeast part of the forecast area Thursday night.
Meanwhile, next surge of cooler air will move into central KS today, reaching vicinity of KICT around 0000 UTC, then probably pushing south of the OK border this evening.
We are expecting a cold frontal passage during the afternoon hours.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and generally mild conditions through the weekend. After a break in the high clouds Thursday morning, time height for Las Vegas shows RH values increasing late in the day and into Thursday night.
428 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 A flat upper ridge over the western Caribbean combined with broad troughing over southeast Canada and New England currently leaves the Florida Keys with slightly anticyclonic and confluent upper flow. In the lower troposphere, a narrow ridge extends across the central Florida Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures were steady in the lower 70s with dewpoints just under 70F, and northeast winds near 10 mph with occasional higher gusts over the islands. The low level ridge axis drops over the Keys alowing for some intrusions of low level moisture in the westerlies, but no support aloft for much rain generation.
329 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 A broad cyclonic upper-level flow persist across much of the Eastern portion of the CONUS today, with a weak frontal trough remaining stationary over the northern Gulf coast. Friday through the weekend: deepening upper low to the north will aid to push this boundary south Friday and into eraly this weekend.
342 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Strong high pressure to the north will direct cold air into the forecast area through tonight. Low pressure will move northeastward along a front off the Southeast Coast tonight.
Moisture traed over the northern mountains is producing only isolated snow shower activity, but blowing snow is also occurring over the ridges. Low temperatures will be much warmer in/near the foothills tonight with the downslope flow while low lying areas on the plains will remain much colder. For Thursday night into Friday the models maintain a strong NW flow aloft with a persistent ridge over the western coast. A critical layer develops that will help to bring increased winds down into the lower foothills.
Will see a bit of a rebound in temps Thursday and especially Friday, as the current strong high pressure system moves east and weakens. High confidence in a very cold or below freezing extended.
343 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure was over eastern WI and into central IL early this morning and bringing bitter cold temps to the area. Another strong 1045 mb arctic high pressure is moving into the northern plains and upper Midwest from Alberta Canada during this New Years weekend, and ushering in bitter cold air again.
It will remain chilly, but expect highs ranging from the mid 20s in the north to the lower 30s in the south. The low levels will remain quite dry, however, so the bulk of the day looks dry.
Thus, it looks like most areas will again struggle to reach the freezing mark. Guidance is actually trending cooler for Friday, so wouldn't be surprised to see this trend continue.
For tomorrow, the shifting high pressure will act to keep winds mainly out of the south through early afternoon. This will help advect some "warmer" temperatures into the area bringing highs tomorrow near the freezing mark. One more day of temperatures near the 30 degree mark will be seen Friday before a cold front makes its way through the area Friday night.
This will be a sign of the next low pressure system moving into the Midwest. This slight waa will help bumps highs into the lower teens everywhere will plenty of sunshine to start the day.
303 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Cold start to the day with early morning temperatures in the lower teens below zero in northern areas of the CWA. Light snow, associated with a surface cold front, continues to push east out of the CWA this morning. The surface cold front exits as Arctic high pressure slides southeastward into the region through the day.
High pressure will move from IA east to the eastern Great Lakes. Some highs in the low 40s may be possible in our southern MO counties with 30s elsewhere.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will maintain a generally dry and mild westerly flow aloft across much of Utah heading into the weekend.
Cold front crossing the area from north to south will lead to a brief increase in northerly winds and a decreasing temperature trend for the remainder of the overnight. Large upper trough persist across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS today. Temps across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills have reached the 20s and 30s, as warmer air continues to push into the area.
1056 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic airmass retreated across the plains today bringing in warmer and windy conditions to the area, finally relieving us of single digit temperatures from this morning. We can see a wide range of max temperatures ranging from the 50s in our southwestern CWA to the low 30s in our northeastern counties.
324 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Strong high pressure to the north will direct cold air into the forecast area through tonight. Low pressure will move northeastward along a front off the Southeast Coast tonight.
238 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Cold high pressure will keep things pretty quiet across the PAH forecast area through Friday night. By late Friday into Friday night, models show a cold front pushing across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
A 1044 mb arctic high pressure system was centered over the dvn cwa providing plenty of sunshine but bitterly cold temperatures. Tonight: High pressure will slip off to our east this evening with warm air advection kicking in on the return flow. With the cloud cover and southeast winds temperatures will be much warmer than last night.
The strong high pressure which has been in control of the weather will gradually move off to the east.
A cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain over the northwest half of the state late Sunday afternoon and night.
This is when a deepening upper level trough, increasing shear as 70-80 knot mid level winds, and rather strong cold front arrives to provide the forcing needed to trigger the thunderstorms. With temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index values will soar into the mid to upper 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s.
But, the big development will be closer to the h8 thermal ridge and frontal position which is just south of Wisconsin. Cyclogenesis over the wrn Great Lakes late tnt will help drive a cold front through srn WI by sunrise on Sun.
1212 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 High pressure to the east combined with a large area of low pressure to our west will keep us in a moist southerly flow through the weekend.
With summertime instability developing throughout the day and weak upper- level troughing still in place, expect scattered showers and storms to develop once again across inland areas Saturday afternoon and evening. High temps Saturday afternoon continue to run in the mid to upper 80's across the area, and overnight lows reach the low to mid 70's Saturday night.
Highs are forecast to reach the mid and upper 90s while dewpoints recover into the lower 70s. Considered a heat warning for east central KS, and it may be needed if high temps are a degree or two warmer. Models show some cold air advection behind the front, so lows should be cooler with readings in the lower and middle 60s.
Forecast has been adjusted somewhat to drop the high temps a touch, as guidance has been coming in slightly cooler. Once system moves through by Sunday morning, conditions will be cooler for early part of week.
The upper level ridge will basically remain in place.
Thermal ridge at 700 mb was down over the Four Corners region with cooler readings across the northern US. Today, we expect some showers and storms as mid level height falls overspread the region and a cold front drops southward. The most likely area for severe storms though should be farther south today where the convection allowing models (CAMs) and also most of the parameterized models suggest an intense line developing near the cold front across KS and MO.
Expect strong solar insolation to mix out the lower clouds/patchy fog toward 10 am with ample surface heating to follow. The main feature of interest this AM is that of an upper low over Mississippi that has been digging southeastward toward the Alabama Gulf Coast. With the upper feature expected to remain across the Alabama Gulf Coast today and into tonight, we would expect to see a north to south gradient in our rain chances with the best chances in the southern counties of Central Alabama closer to the low. The lower levels still promote onshore flow, and so we have deep moisture continuing to stream into the state through tonight with humid conditions remaining across the area.
Models suggest that much of the day will be fairly quiet, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over mainly north central WI as a weak cold front approaches late in the afternoon. Low temperatures should range from the middle 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. CAA, clouds and showers will result in cooler temperatures, ranging from the middle 60s northwest to the lower to middle 70s southeast.
The coverage of the low clouds is not solid and do not expect the MVFR ceilings to last more than few hours. /Issued 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ The axis of an upper level ridge centered over Northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest extends east into the Southern Plains and North/Central Texas. Subsidence associated with the ridge, plentiful sunshine and abundant low level moisture will lead to another uncomfortably hot day across the forecast area.
With relatively low freezing levels, between 8000 to 9000ft, increased possibility of hail around an inch and subsequent downbursts with winds up to 60mph seem to be the primary threat with the stronger pulsating updrafts. Associated cold front will drop through the fa today. Clouds and cold advection will limit temperature recovery across the north to the 60s with warmer temperatures to the south. With cold advection continuing will see minimums in the lower 50s with 40s across the north.
A cold front will pass through the area from north to south from late evening into the overnight and should clear all but Lawton and Wichita Falls by 12z Sunday morning. A cold front is set to come through late Saturday night, bringing a chance for showers and storms as well as cooler temperatures. After Sunday, the upper level ridge begins to build back in again.
Sctd to bkn low clouds are seen beneath widespread CI that is streaming southwest around an upper level ridge to the west. Energy progged to move into the north-central gulf and sharpen existing trof and transition into a shear axis going into the new work- week.
This will continue to move south and east this morning as ridging moves in from the west.
628 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A midlevel disturbance across the Nrn Plains and Nrn Rockies moves east today sending a strong Pacific cold front through Western and North Central Nebraska. A blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction yields highs in the lower 70s north to mid 80s south. A fairly quiet pattern returns on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region.
Today will feel more summer-like compared to the previous week with warmer temperatures, sunny skies, and the typical afternoon breezes.
A shift toward more seasonally typical weather pattern begins today as a strong but flat upper level ridge will begin to build northward. However, clouds scatter Sunday, with plenty of afternoon sunshine and much warmer inland temperatures.
Sunday: Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area on Father's Day, with dewpoints down to the 50s and highs in the lower 80s.
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 This morning a large upper level ridge of high pressure was anchored over the Desert Southwest and Mexico and was providing upper level disturbances to ride around it periphery. Another upper level disturbance around the periphery of the ridge of high pressure aloft was moving across Kansas, Missouri and into Northeast Oklahoma and Northern Arkansas this morning and extensive blowoff of clouds were spreading South across the area. Have omitted rain chances for today and overnight as the ridge aloft will help keep disturbances to our North and East. Models are in agreement with the persistence of this upper ridge with a gradual flattening out as a longwave trough amplifies across the central sections of the country.
Very warm to hot weather is forecast inland through the weekend as high pressure strengthens over California.
Additional storms likely late this evening in the 06-12z time frame with possible MVFR conditions, mainly north of I-40, as a cold front moves through. A cold front will advance into southeast KS by late afternoon/early evening. This activity should move into northern sections of the forecast area later Saturday night as the cold front sags farther south. The cold front.