Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER TROF HANGS BACK JUST TO OUR W. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER TN THURSDAY.
349 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WHILE A MINOR TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST US BORDER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES FROM THE WEST.
146 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST.
606 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE POCONOS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HAD A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAJA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. WHILE A TROUGH IS DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THE PATTERN IS BEING DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO. BUT WITH THE OVERALL FORCING BEING PRETTY WEAK AND WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONTINUING TO BE DRIVEN BY THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN THE AREA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge centered over the CA Baja with an upper trough off the west coast. Another upper trough was located over the MS river valley and gradually moving east. At the surface, a cool ridge of high pressure over the upper Midwest continues to nose into the southern high plains, bringing cooler dry air into the forecast area. However there is a fair amount of dry air progged to remain in the lower levels of the atmosphere and there is little to no elevated instability above the lift. Think there should be enough radiational cooling across northeast and east central KS for lows to fall into the lower 40s.
A short wave trough extends from the eastern Great Lakes southwest across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys to the western Gulf of Mexico this morning. A cold front extends from New England to Ohio Valley and Southern Plains. The short wave trough will edge closer to the forecast area today and provide some forcing for ascent. standards with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
258 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER. THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE LOW SHIFTING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ONE CHANGE IS THAT THE LOW APPEARS TO BE DIGGING A BIT MORE BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF A TAHOE-LOVELOCK LINE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 EVEN IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS AND HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY 5-8 DEGREES.
CURRENT COLD FRONT MARKED BY THE APPROACHING STRATOCU DECK AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
102 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
312 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PENN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEK. SFC COLD FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 06Z. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
346 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP EASTERN PAC UPPER TROUGH. THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD. LEAD SHEARING IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE REGION THURS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS FORECAST TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONG TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND THEN PACIFIC ENERGY FORMING ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY BUT MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE AXIS BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES THEN ON HOW OR WHEN THIS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN.
WARM RIDGE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD NIGHTS CONTINUING. SOME INSTABILITY PERSISTS ON THE BUT ERN UTAH AND THE LOWER/DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY. RIDGE AXIS STARTS BREAKING DOWN AND GETTING PUSHED EAST THURSDAY AND THREADY NIGHT AS A COOLER PACIFIC TROUGH MARCHES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST DRY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH LEADS TO ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY.
126 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO GENERATE A WIDESPREAD WITH THE RAIN BEING HEAVY AT TIMES FROM THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER EAST TO THE COAST. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AUTUMN AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SMALL BUT EFFECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE S SASK/MB BORDER AREA TONIGHT. MIXING AND WARMER COLUMN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP WITH FROST NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY SO LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN.
623 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AVIATION A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO THE WEEKEND.
439 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PENN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEK. SFC COLD FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 06Z. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED AS NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS GUSTY WITHIN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHEAR AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THOUGH. WITH THE 925 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS. SURFACE WINDS STAYING UP AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE HURON EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
142 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT IS PAST I-71 AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FA TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SE. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TS JOAQUIN. DID NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BUT TRENDED HIGHER ON THE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER ON DAYTIME MAX TEMPS. COAST WILL HIGHLY IMPACT OHIO VALLEY WEATHER AS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPINNING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.
413 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 RAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. AND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT DEFINITELY BROUGHT AUTUMN AIR WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOWER HUMIDITIES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS OFF THE COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
446 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO EXIT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U. SOUTHWESTERN RIDGING EXPANDING INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
308 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.
410 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
A PASSING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH.
UPPER LOW OFF CALIF 37/133 AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH SFO AND NRN NEVADA/UTAH. MUCH STRONGER STORM FARTHER OUT IN THE PACIFIC 45/152 WILL STAY OUT THERE HOWEVER AS A RIDGE BUILDS RAPIDLY NWD ALONG 130W. AN INTENSE STORM ON THE SRN ALASKA COAST WILL BE STEERED EAST THEN SOUTH BY THE 130W RIDGE. THEN MUCH COOLER /10 TO 17 DEGS/ THURSDAY IN ALL AREAS.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW LIES BETWEEN THE TN AND OH VALLEY ACROSS KY AND TN. IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KY SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS KY.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A LARGE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTED IN SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD LINK WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY GETS PULLED NORTWARD. BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
The mid-level ridge centered over northern Baja will continue to influence the weather over our neck of the woods, providing unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather across the region. A slight increase in cloud cover tonight, coupled with winds near 5 mph, will likely result in min temperatures being a bit warmer than the current period. Have continued to favor the model blended forecast which has trended drier and a little cooler. The upper high pressure ridge over West Central Texas will likely interact with the upper low across the southeast U.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
BUT THERE WERE A FEW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CWA.
417 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND SHARPENS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER < 1 INCH)TO SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. DRY BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. BUT THE GREATEST DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY. /EC/ CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT UPPER LOW INTERACTION WITH "JOAQUIN" OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED BACK A LITTLE WEST WITH THE PIVOTING UPPER LOW CENTER.
Low level ridging continued across Kansas with the fresh, cool airmass in place. Outside of that corridor, where some direct insolation will finally occur, temperatures are expected to reach the lower to perhaps mid 70s. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much, including the low level pressure, wind, moisture fields, so another round of expanding nocturnal stratus is expected later on tonight across nearly the same areas. The focus for precip chances will shift eastward into central Kansas Thursday as medium range models indicate the upper level ridge transitioning east across the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains, pushing the axis of the upper level jet into central and eastern Kansas.
Details are not clear with weekend storm, but will be unsettled, breezy, cooler with snow possible higher elevations. Deeper convection may develop Thursday as the low moves onshore. All the cloud cover along with a cooler airmass will lead to much cooler temperatures today and Thursday compared to earlier in the week.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY. WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AS IT SLOWS UP AND PINCHES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. WITH BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS LINING UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST THURSDAY AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CIRCULATING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT APPROXIMATELY 37N/134W.
513 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE WEST LEAVING US WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOL FRONT WILL BACKDOOR IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER TROF HANGS BACK JUST TO OUR W. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI NORTHEAST OF I-94 TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. QUIET/COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
319 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES WHILE THE TROUGH BROADENS A BIT FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD. BUT N VEERING NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
334 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THANKS TO THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. THE LOW LEVELS ARE HIGHLY SATURATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS A TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO TEXAS. OWING TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES.
FRINGES OF A BROAD PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE US PACIFIC COAST. THE TROUGH WILL OPEN AND ADVANCE TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY BY AID OF A 'KICKER' CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ENTER THE GREAT BASIN.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY WILL MOVE EAST.
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a broad trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS. This trough will influence the Ohio Valley's weather through the short term period, bringing rather damp and dreary conditions. 9 inches still remain and the lift appears sufficient enough to warrant 70-80 percent coverage today as the trough axis/def zone sag through. The trough axis will push through much of the region tonight helping to shunt the deeper moisture eastward. However, a strong PV anomaly currently across the northern Plains will quickly dive through the trough, helping to rapidly amplify it tonight into Thursday. Conditions will be quite chilly as highs will struggle in the low to mid 60s given the northeasterly surface flow and widespread cloud cover persisting.
534 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 RAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. AND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT DEFINITELY BROUGHT AUTUMN AIR WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALLOWING MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
604 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO DOWNEAST LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND COOLER AIR PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COAST WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TODAY AS STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WORK TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS STRONG, CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE AND PUSHES COOL DRY AIR ACROSS OUR REGION.
309 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH THE REGION BECOMING SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THEN UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A TOUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST.
THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IS WEDGED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
342 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON'S BAY TO EASTERN TEXAS PUTTING OUR REGION IN MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
303 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The backdoor cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma. Expect cooler morning and afternoon temperatures the next couple of days.
321 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINING UP FROM WISCONSIN TO KANSAS. UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURES NORTHEAST FLOW. WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AREA WIDE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA RESULTING IN A DRY N/NE SFC FLOW LOCALLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS NIGHTTIME HOURS DUE TO A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OCCURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
618 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS SPEEDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AND THIS CLOUD COVER WAS NORTH OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO FAR NE ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE WILL BE KEPT COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS BECAUSE OF THE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR NE ONTARIO AND NW QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TWIN PORTS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
355 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER NWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE LOCATED OVER NRN SONORA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS IS PROGGED FOR TODAY WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS. A BETTER CHANCE COMES LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND A LONGER LIFE. BUT NOT UNTIL UPPER RIDGING SHARPENS ACROSS WEST TX ON THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING THE GREAT BASIN.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW LIES BETWEEN THE TN AND OH VALLEY ACROSS KY AND TN. IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KY SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS KY. SHOULD BE DOMINATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WEST. SOME MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN MAY REACH WEST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.