Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid/upper level ridge axis near the west coast will move east of the area by morning with low level easterly flow veering to the east-southeast on Tuesday.
We still could see a little redevelopment along this back edge as the trof axis remains to our west.
Therefore, shower activity will continue until the upper level trough pushes to the east and a more west to northwest flow can develop. /issued 340 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Local 88Ds show a broken line of heavy showers/thunderstorms associated with a mid-level disturbance and weak sfc trof crossing the forecast area at this time. The chance for showers will persist into Tuesday, albeit a slimmer shot, until the low and primary sfc cold front gradually push through the region. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
The next trough is set up across MT, and will move over our area during the day Tuesday.
Kept PoPs at 20 for most of the area through tomorrow morning as some models are hinting at the development of some showers ahead of the approaching cold front. Main trof axis is still situated to our east and until that and the sfc front pushes thru Tues, can't completely rule out some additional light showers as some guidance is depicting late tonight and early Tue morning. /ISSUED 346 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Areas of rain along with embedded showers and an occasional thunderstorm or two continue moving northward across much of Southeast Texas this afternoon as the mid/upper level trof axis slowly edges eastward across the state. Any fog that does develop will burn off in the morning, and then a cold front will move through the area during the day with winds shifting to the northwest behind the boundary.
1038 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 A long wave ridge complex has amplified across the eastern United States, stretching from Central America through the Great Lakes. Upstream from the ridge, an equally anomalous trough axis is working east through the central United States and old Mexico. Water vapor imagery highlights the diffluent flow east of the trough axis. At the surface, and inverted trough axis has formed over the western Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure stretches from western Cuba to well into Quebec, mirroring the latitudinal extent of the upper ridge. An area of low pressure will develop over the Gulf of Mexico overnight and Tuesday. This low pressure system is expected to move east across the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night.
448 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the trough from yesterday continuing east across the Plains. Behind the trough a corridor of very dry air follows. Further west a short wave ridge was also moving east. Water vapor quickly increases west of the approaching ridge axis. Due to the clear sky and the cooler, drier air mass, lows will be cooler than the last couple of nights. For some locations this will be as much as six degrees warmer than record values based on the current forecast.
839 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure and clear sky will only gradually give way to increasing clouds into Tuesday.
Surface trof moving across eastern Montana/Wyoming this evening. Upper trough across the central CONUS has shifted east of the CWA with upper ridging building back in. An upper trough will push into the western CONUS Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Will upper level low expected to develop and move across the gulf coast states as Tue into Tue night progresses usher in enough wrap around moisture to support numerous light to moderate shwrs during the evening hours? With this frontal passage on Fri, will the mid state experience enough instability to warrant some tstms developing across the area Fri and into Fri evening? A consensus of model solutions approach was taken over the forecast period, with particular leans toward models that made more sense for a particular time period versus another, and this includes a consensus approach to temp forecasting.
/issued 532 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ The strong upper level ridge that brought near record heat to the Mid South this afternoon will move east this evening as a deep upper level trough approaches and cuts off as an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley.
313 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Based on wind gust reports, we have decided to move up the timing of the high wind warning to now for the Southern Laramie Range, the I-80 Summit between Laramie and Cheyenne and nearby foothills. Models indicate the low and mid level height gradients strengthening as evidenced by the 850 mb and 700 mb Craig to Casper height gradients and 700 mb winds progged. Subsidence also showing healthy trends, thus it appears that high winds again will be likely beginning late this evening over the I-80 Summit and nearby foothills, as well as over much of the lower elevations east of a Douglas to Laramie line late tonight, so we have upgraded high wind watches to high wind warnings.
911 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday then move east later Tuesday.
Having said that, some patchy shallow ground fog will still be possible, especially in the low-lying and fog-prone spots. High pressure will remain to the northeast through Tuesday, with favorable boating conditions.
High pressure has slipped off to the east with increasing return flow setting up across Middle Tennessee. A strong upper low will move into Louisiana by 18Z tomorrow and will pull much deeper moisture into the mid state, with showers developing during the late morning and afternoon.
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND SUNRISE WILL BRING PURE VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR. /issued 254 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500mb trough across west Texas and northern Mexico this afternoon will move across the state into east TX and across the middle and lower TX coast tonight. With the 500mb low/trough across Louisiana and the northwest Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Patchy fog will develop across the eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Tues morning before a trough/front moves through the area Tues morning reinforcing the drier air across the area.
/issued 304 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Winds behind the cold front, as previously mentioned, increased to 30 to 35 kts though we will see speeds taper off within the next couple of hours.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for a mix of light rain, freezing rain or sleet tonight across the northwest and north central. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of light freezing rain, rain, or possibly sleet.
625 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will linger across the region through the rest of this week.
/issued 146 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Upper trough pushing across TX today with high pressure building in behind it.
646 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
Temperatures were mainly in the upper 40s to middle 50s, cooler by the bay and lake. The forecast starts out with a low pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes region. Ahead of the low temperatures will soar into the lower to middle 60s across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper- level trough from the MT/ND border through eastern CO/eastern NM/western TX, with downstream ridge from the Great Lakes through the Southeast. Modest 500mb height falls of up to 60m were noted in the central US ahead of the trough. Upper-level jet of 130kt was coming ashore in northern CA, with ejecting jet segment up to 125kt ahead of the trough and nearly south to north. Unusually warm 850mb temperatures in the teens extended as far north as the US-Canada border in the western Great Lakes and as far west as the High Plains, with a pool of 8C+ dewpoints from eastern NE into IA/MO ahead of the 850mb trough.
610 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday then move east later Tuesday.
941 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will linger across the region through the rest of this week.
943 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
At the same time, in the upper levels, a longwave trough extending from the Dakotas to Texas will continue eastward through tonight. The southern portion of energy from the trough is expected to become a closed low as it moves into Louisiana and Arkansas.
A cold front will reach the Metroplex 09-10z and Waco 12-14z. /ISSUED 309 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Water vapor imagery shows the large upper low spinning across much of Texas this afternoon with moisture continuing to stream northward across much of East Texas. With the upper low slow to move eastward.
the ridge axis will shift to the east with the flow aloft transitioning from northwest to westerly. Some temperatures records will likely be broken including the high of 71 for Denver set in 1995. Southwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper level ridge axis shifts east of the region.
Will keep precipitation chances on the lower side through the night, a little higher far north were atmosphere is more saturated. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for a mix of light rain, freezing rain or sleet tonight across the northwest and north central. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of light freezing rain, rain, or possibly sleet.
/Issued 210 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/ CWA enjoying another abnormally warm late afternoon/evening with some places paced to get near record highs in the mid to upper 70s (see climate section below) as ridge-dominated regime continues.
At the time of this writing a deep N-S H5 trough is slowly pushing a storm system/front out of the plains. In the process the trough evolves into a split flow regime where the northern stream pushes the front across the Great lakes region while in the southern stream the southern part of the trough will become a closed low thus slowing down its eastward progress.
There is a slight chance that the approaching wind shift and subsequent increase in northwest winds does not reach AUS before late tonight, which could allow shallow fog to creep into the the low lying areas, but current trends suggest that the drying trend is ahead of schedule if anything. The latest water vapor loop shows an upper level trough axis across Texas and northern Mexico. There are some light echoes on radar data along the Highway 77 corridor and we will hold on to a low chance for showers for the next few hours across this region. Otherwise, a cold front will sweep across the region tonight, dropping overnight lows into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
342 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Cold Arctic high pressure, currently over west central IL, will slide east across the area today with clear skies, light and variable winds, and dry weather. Once the high moves east of the area, winds will become southeasterly late afternoon, and then southerly at night. High temps this afternoon will be a little warmer than yesterday, reaching the middle 20s at most sites. Though a little warmer, it will still be below normal. Tonight's lows will also be warmer from previous nights, falling into the upper teens to around 20. but will quickly change over to all rain after midnight with the push of warmer air into the region.
This will allow temperatures to begin to moderate behind our strongest cold front in nearly 6 years. With continued south winds, lows tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with only locations in the northern Hill Country flirting with the freezing mark one more night.
Temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the mid state today as the upper level ridge starts to work its way to the east across the US, but a warm up is on the way this week. Monday will remain dry and temperatures will finally climb above freezing during the afternoon hours.
Surface analysis early this morning shows north-south oriented high pressure centered over MN/IA with a weak low pressure center over southern MT. Aloft, a deep trough has shifted to the East Coast while a flattening ridge moves over the Rockies. The low pressure center over MT will be a key feature for the weather for today, which now features a strong likelihood of light snow for much of the WFO MPX coverage area. Progressive northwest flow will aid in moving the eastern trough into the Atlantic while the ridge over the west builds. Temperatures will be slightly more mild today as strong cold air advection wanes with the flattening of the ridge out west, allowing high to climb into the teens followed by lows tonight in the single digits above zero.
Expect lows to drop down into the single digits in much of the area with the high building in. Belles A very cold 1040ish MB ridge is expected to drift over the midsouth tonight, thus leading to another chiller. The high is slow to move east on Sunday with another cold winter day expected, albeit milder than today.
Raised high temps today into the low to mid 20s. We got into the 20s in many locations yesterday, and given warmer air aloft, do not see why we wouldn't be a bit warmer today. Lows tonight will be much warmer in the upper teens, and wind chills will be in the single digits. Precip will begin as snow across the region; however, temps will rise to above freezing overnight. Temperatures have been well below freezing for awhile now, so thinking the ground and elevated surfaces will remain below freezing longer than the air temp. So as snow transitions to rain, freezing rain may briefly occur.
But another center of high pressure is expected to move over the region tonight, keeping skies clear, winds calm, and allowing temperatures to once again fall into the single digits to near zero degrees. This will be especially true over the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area where the center of the high should be by tomorrow morning. After another chilly, but warmer than the previous few days, start to the day Monday, warm advection should allow temperatures to get back to normal with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s expected across the area.
There is quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, which should limit any accumulations today, but locations across western NE have reported -sn with ceilings down around 4000-5000 feet, which may be a stretch this far east. Temps today will be warmer than we've been the last several days, reaching the mid 20s to lower 30s, but still just below normal. Temps Monday will be warmer being boosted by southerly surface flow, reaching the 30s for all areas. Low pressure then moves through SD Monday night.
Southerly surface winds will begin to bring warmer temperatures to the region this afternoon as most of the Ozarks climb above freezing. The increased southerly winds will produce wind chills in the low single digits to around zero across much of the region except for the extreme southwestern portion of the Ozarks.
Southerly surface winds will begin to bring warmer temperatures to the region this afternoon as most of the Ozarks climb above freezing.
Temperatures rise near the freezing mark today, and winds will also be on the increase, depending on how deep we mix. As the energy lifts out over the plains on Monday night isentropic lift could support drizzle across the area since the models are now bringing the low level moisture further north. As of now the freezing line could bisect the area, which means northern KS will need to watch out for the potential for freezing drizzle.
Upper ridge to the west from the west coast to the Rockies. Cold front off shore over the east coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Warm front appears to located from the southern Panhandle of NE into far southwest NE and is expected to push northeast overnight. warmer to the northeast with minimal snow cover. Some weak cold frontal boundaries moving through in Northwest flow.
1216 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Arctic High pressure will move in through Monday, providing cold temperatures. Skies have cleared over the region as low pressure continues to lift away from the region offshore and the atmosphere continues to dry out as precipitable water values have fallen below 0. Expect lows to range from the lower to mid teens northern Midlands to upper teens to around 20 degrees central and southern Midlands and CSRA. Strong Arctic high pressure will descend on the Southeast U. Strong radiational cooling Sunday night with ridge over the area. Local radiation scheme suggest temperatures in the low to mid teens across much of the area. Monday will be slightly warmer with warm advection developing. High pressure aloft over the Western Atlantic Ocean will build into the Southeast U.
A few of the typically cooler locations could reach the single digits if decoupling can occur. With continued northerly winds and limited mixing another cool day is expected Sunday with temperatures only a couple degrees above freezing in the north.
152 AM MST Sun Jan 8 2017 Deep NE Pac upper trough will support a splitting stronger impulse into the region, bringing a temporary break in cold arctic air over most of the fa. The main impact from this system will be breezy conds and a period of warmer air this morning. Stronger flow reflection will support a stronger WAA push into the region with many locations over NE WY and the Black Hills warming above freezing tonight. This trough will will support a period of gusty winds on the SD plains, possibly adv winds.
Tonight will be a classic radiational cooling night under high pressure. Sunday will see the high move east, and south winds return. Mid and high clouds spreading overhead will keep our highs from being too much warmer than today though. This will translate into a change from cold temps to warmer temperatures and the return of low tracks across our area.
Much of northern Arizona remains cloudy at 9 PM and this is holding temperatures up, 20 degrees warmer than last night at this time for some areas. A weak short wave trough moving through the flow during the day today has produced some very light echoes on the radar, indicating small frozen precipitation particles most of which have likely not even reached the ground. Expect some clearing late tonight south of Interstate 40, while another weak short wave trough moves through the flow across northwest Arizona. Much warmer temperatures are forecast on Sunday as a strong ridge briefly develops over Arizona. The ridge goes away quickly on Monday as a subtropical jet associated with strong moisture advection moves over northern Arizona.
Snow showers are possible today, mostly confined to the ridges and areas north of Interstate 80.
1234 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Snow ends overnight as low pressure well east of Long Island tracks into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Cold high pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Clearing skies from west to east after midnight in wake of low pressure. Upper level trough and associated PVA tracks across the northeast which could result in a few snow showers or flurries.
1131 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 High pressure at the surface centered over Texas has brought our winds around to a southwesterly direction which will all a warming trend to begin.
A weak front/trough will dissipate as it crosses the region tonight. In its wake another surge of high pressure will overspread the region. With the high pressure having shifted east of the area on Monday, deep southerly flow will begin to advect moisture back across the area. Right now temperatures Monday night are expected to remain above freezing, but not much above freezing over the far northern and northeast sections of our CWA.
This character will induce a lower-deck surface trof to strengthen across the Western Plains that will likewise move E across the Northern Plains. The lower-deck SE flow will shift to the S/SW & increase to produce a strong warmup with about a 30F diurnal range likely. The ECMWF continues to depict the more ominous picture, especially for Southeast KS where a mixture of freezing rain & sleet may occur.
The strong upper trough over the great lakes and northeast U. High pressure over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valley will also move off to the east allowing a milder southerly flow to develop on the back side of the high.
Temperatures warmed considerably and snow levels soared behind a warm front that moved through last night and this morning. At 07/00Z the KMFR sounding was below freezing all the way up. The 07/12Z sounding showed multiple freezing levels between 2500 ft and 5500 ft MSL. The latest 08/00Z sounding showed the freezing level at 6800 ft MSL. Freezing rain remains a possibility over there as well.
The center of the ridge is currently over the twin ports and through NW WI early this morning. An area of low pressure will move toward the upper midwest on Monday.
Northwest upper flow continues across the Central Plains as a ridge builds into the Rockies. Little to no snow cover has diminished today as temperatures remained below freezing in the 20s. Sunday will see increasing warm advection through the day as southwest flow develops in the low levels. Highs Sunday will range from around 30 along the Highway 36 corridor to the mid 30s along and south of I-70. The period starts off with some warming Monday as southerly flow dominates through the day ahead of a building trough. Highs will reach into the low 40s.
418 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 High pressure over the Mississippi Valley today will move east over the Mid Atlantic region tonight then off the coast by Monday night.
Dry VFR will continue with periods of high clouds in northwest flow aloft spilling over a slowly approaching low amplitude upper level ridge being shoved into the southern plateau region by late Sunday. 1940Z temperatures were now above freezing at all locations except the far southwest Texas Panhandle where they were in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The venture above freezing will be a relatively short one as temperatures tumble back down into the teens and lower 20s tonight.
After a chilly start this morning, highs will be able to climb into the lower and middle 50s. Overnight lows tonight will be warmer than the last 2 nights with temps in the 40s and lower 50s along the immediate coast. Much warmer conditions will develop on Monday as southerly winds increase across the area.
354 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Upper level trough moves across the area on Sunday, bring with it the potential for snow showers.
Temps expected to rise above 25 degrees by 9 am, with most of the area above freezing by 10-11 am. Still a rather cool afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 40s. By Monday, the high will be east rain.
Ridge of high pressure moves from the Northern Plains drifts directly over our area tonight. With decoupling under the ridge, very little, if any wind will be noted. Sunday will see increasing clouds through the day ahead of a trough of low pressure moving out of the central Canadian Prairies into northern MN/eastern Dakotas. Warm air advection ahead of this trough will push high temperatures into the 10 to 20 above range.
So prefer to just mention some patchy freezing fog for now for areas north of highway 56, as temps quickly fall late this evening.
336 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Sub-freezing temperatures are blanketing the entire forecast area again this morning as an Arctic airmass remains in place across the region.
At the surface a cold front along the eastern edge of 1040mb high pressure is over our CWA with lee trough just west of this and southerly gradient orientated along CO border.
Dry weather to continue right through Monday with temps continuing their warming trends as strengthening low-level thermal advection allows temps to warm into the lower 40s tomorrow afternoon. Fcst finally becomes a bit more interceding by Monday night as a warm front begins lifting through the area as low pressure begins tracking east along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Limited moisture depth will likely keep the bulk of precip falling in the form of drizzle if it indeed develops, with above freezing surface temps limiting the threat for any freezing precip.