Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 924 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ High pressure surface and aloft remains anchored over the Florida peninsula.
401 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A stalled frontal boundary located just south of Lake Erie will lift north as a warm front on Sunday ahead of low pressure approaching the Central Great Lakes.
255 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Stratus on the back side of the low continues to slowly erode from west to east this afternoon. The timing of the mid to upper low will be advantageous for deep convective development somewhere near or just west of the I35 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours as instability peaks. Storm coverage also appears questionable based on moisture profiles, with the highest chances east of I35 after sunset. Most of the storms should exit our region to the east after ~ 09Z tomorrow night as the mid to upper trough moves into NE OK, along with mid to upper moisture. The next chance of storms will arrive Tues night with the approach of a closed low.
305 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Upper level low currently over southwest Missouri continues to bring some light rain to far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon. The clouds associated with this upper level low and related surface feature are forecast to slowly depart the area Tonight. With another upper low lurking over southern Nevada this Afternoon, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Sunday into Sunday night as this feature sweeps across the plains. The severe potential is expected to linger into the overnight hours with elevated instability becoming more favorable as the low level jet intensifies.
246 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will remain across the area tonight. The ridge will crest over the region on Sunday.
A cold front that will be moving across the central and southern Mississippi valley tonight will be our weather maker.
620 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will remain across the area tonight. The ridge will crest over the region on Sunday.
Overall, unsettled short term period as a low pressure system moves in and brings showers and a few thunderstorms across the area. A stronger 850mb jet core moves in after 00z and will bring near wind advisory criteria to the highest peaks of the Smokies. With cold front still back to our west, and partial clearing expected, it appears that shower and thunderstorm redevelopment is possible just back to our west with activity moving into our area by mid to late afternoon. To start the period, a cold front will slowly be exiting the forecast area, bringing reduced thunderstorm chances for Sunday night.
1236 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A relatively stagnant upper low centered over the Oklahoma and Kansas border will be slow to move today before a deepening trough upstream finally pushes the storm system northeast by this afternoon. Expecting values ranging from the upper 40s across northwest Missouri, to the lower 60s across central Missouri, where weak warm advection will persist. Overnight lows will also be moderated, though slightly cooler than the previous night with weak CAA, dropping into lower to mid 40s.
An upper trough will move east of Utah tonight. High pressure will return briefly on Sunday, followed by another storm system for early in the upcoming week. The axis of the upper trof is overhead this afternoon and precip has been widespread across the northwestern CWA but is now starting to taper off. Expect precip to taper off this eve as the trof exits the area with some orographic showers lingering until about 06z or so. The upstream ridge moves into the Great Basin tonight and across our CWA on Sun. The ridge shifts east Sun night as the next trof moves inland with precip chances increasing across the north overnight becoming widespread on Mon.
/Issued 1142 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Low pressure is situated just west of the mid Mississippi River Valley with a trailing cold front/line of convection. Southerly flow will continue to bring low level moisture northward with warmer than normal temperatures today. /Issued 414 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Expect enhanced southerly moisture transport to allow for midlevel cloud deck today (possible breaks here and there), though the approaching cutoff trough to the west and upper level vorticity advection will ramp up shower chances by this evening.
Moist diffluent Pacific air moving over cooler surface air behind this mornings cold front will bring scattered showers to western areas this evening, and more persistent rainfall to areas east of a Miles City to Hardin line. Precipitation and clouds will clear from west to east overnight as upper low to the south shifts east and drier northwest flow builds in.
This concentration of showers coincides with a low-level theta-e ridge axis which was left behind from yesterdays cold front. The best lapse rates will coexist with the aforementioned theta-e ridge axis and sounding data suggests a very small threat of a thunderstorm. For tonight there will be a small chance of IFR stratus/fog, however with the low-level winds turning to the SE, we suspect that most of this will remain away from the airports.
1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Larger band of showers and storms has shifted eastward into eastern MO this morning with another area of storms developing over northeast OK / southeast KS underneath the cutoff low pressure system affecting the region. Stronger storms developed further to the south over central AR / Northern LA in the vicinity of a 50 knot low level jet and low level moist axis over the lower Miss Valley. As the upper low moves along the Interstate 44 corridor, cooler mid level temperatures will destabilize the region, especially during the afternoon.
Latest surface analysis reveals a tranquil weather pattern across South Florida, with high pressure building in from the north and weak upper-level ridging aloft.
255 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the Carolinas and VA through Sunday. An area of high pressure located south-southeast of central NC, and a slow moving low pressure system lifting into the mid MS Valley, will maintain warm, modestly moist, sly flow over air area tonight. A lead s/w rotating around the mid MS Valley upper low will lift newd from eastern TN into the central Appalachians Sunday, brushing our nw sector. Still, warm sly flow along with partial sun should be able to boost temperatures back into the low-mid 70s.
625 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A cold front stalls south of the region this evening. High pressure builds in overnight from the north and will shift east on Sunday.
330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 As a low pressure system continues to churn west of the PAH forecast area, light showers continue to dot the radar screens this afternoon. Toward evening, the stacked low pressure system is progged to move closer before skipping off the PAH forecast area in a northeasterly direction.
Scattered showers will continue across the Northern Rockies this afternoon as a relatively cool trough of low pressure quickly moves through the region. Precipitation will likely fall as a rain/snow mix over the higher mountain passes during the day, but given the warm spring sun and warm ground temperatures, impacts to travel are not expected. By Sunday morning, a ridge of high pressure aloft will set valleys up for some patchy morning fog. Lingering cloud cover and the ridge axis still to our west make the setup less than ideal for fog formation, but recent moisture should be enough to cause boundary layer saturation in many valleys.
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Dry slotting on backside of low pressure storm system which swept thru last night, bringing VFR SKC to area.
This rain is associated with a deformation band on the northern edge of the low pressure system. There was some initial concern that due to the temperatures and dew points near freezing that there may be some light freezing rain in Taylor and northern Clark counties late tonight. 12z data came in slightly warmer and as a result it is all rain event for even these counties. On Sunday, the NAM MOS temperatures seemed too cold when considering the temperatures that are currently underneath the low pressure area, so went closer to the GFS MOS temperatures.
A trough of low pressure will continue to cross northern Arizona this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
314 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Low pressure passes to the northwest on Sunday with showers and storms.
147 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Have brief upper ridging over the area today before an upper trough moving across CA/NV today moves over the region Sunday.
Another trough was just off the west coast, with 110m height falls into southern CA. The 850mb low center was nearly stacked under the upper low, with closed circulation encompassing an area from southern MN to northern TX and western KS to the MS river. Moisture had wrapped behind the low across IA/eastern NE/KS.
307 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Area of low pressure over southwest corner of Saskatchewan and extending into north central MT will remain nearly stationary tonight. Long streamer of Pacific moisture cutting diagonally across the state from the Big Hole Valley to the MT/ND border and wrapping around the low's circulation center is providing plenty of moisture for widespread mostly cloudy skies. Additional moisture will be pulled into our area as the low shifts its position, bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms both Wed and Thur aftn/eve. Given the marginal convective energy and wind shear associated with the low, no strong thunderstorms are expected, though a few may produce brief, moderate downpours and a little bit of small hail.
Upper level ridge will help keep temperatures at or slightly above normal through the weekend.
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across northern counties. Upper level low pressure continues to pivot while lifting slowly northeast along the New England coast this afternoon. By later this evening/tonight any lingering clouds east will generally dissipate as the low pressure pulls further east, leaving a mainly clear night across the area from roughly midnight onward. Drying trend for the rest of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid 50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region.
Ridging aloft from the Western Gulf of Mexico into the middle sections of the country and with closed lows/troughs across the West and East coasts. The more Northern zones will typically see the higher chances for convection given the location of the disturbances and available energy.
Weak high pressure aloft will be over the area today and Wednesday.
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains.
225 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms with below average temperatures are expected through Wednesday as low pressure moves slowly south across California. Near average temperatures are then expected through the Memorial Day weekend with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms An upper level trough is allowing for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra and western Nevada. Coverage will remain scattered through the afternoon, but the more favored areas in the evening will follow the forcing from the upper level deformation area associated with the low. Shower activity will diminish by Wednesday evening as the low begins to depart the region.
The sharp upper ridge which brought a prolonged period of very dry conditions to the area is now to our east, while an upstream trough is located over the southwest United States. The only exception will be across eastern Wisconsin near Lake Michigan where an easterly wind will keep it cooler. for 18Z TAF Issuance A weak cold front will drop south across the area later this afternoon and tonight.
Expect at least a few showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as mid to upper level narrow trough sharpens just to the east of the Florida Peninsula. By this weekend, the large area of high pressure centered to our northeast weakens and then gets displaced north/northeastward as lower pressure slides in from the southeast towards the southeast coast of the United States. This keeps the forecast confidence on the low side in regards to the local conditions for the Florida Keys, but we can expect at least isolated/slight chance of showers, and it would not be surprising if this needs to be adjusted up to scattered/chance of showers with accompanying thunderstorms for the middle and later portions of the forecast cycle.
128 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to cause fair weather across our area tonight and Wednesday. Increasing moisture and a warm front lifting northeast across the area will likely cause thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with highs Wednesday in the lower 80s.
Min temps will be a little milder than the previous nights with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure is building in to the region, producing warmer temperatures. This period is highly dependent on strength of the upper ridge.
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
142 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Aviation High pressure will slip away from the region today but should provide one more dry day. Actually the sfc front weakens overhead and becomes rather ill-defined, then begins to rebound north as a warm front on Wednesday. However it's unclear if the warm front will still be in our area or will have lifted into nrn lower mi.
154 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure with warm temperatures and increasing humidity by Wednesday.
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will move right over the area tonight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will continue to be the main player in the forecast through Wednesday, while a 500 mb trough/closed low digs across the western US and another closed low moves across the northern plains. Convection will be limited due to the ridging in place through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the ridge axis will have shifted east and midlevel disturbances moving through the flow may fire up convection over the Mexican plateau.
This pattern is characterized by an upper low off the CONUS Atlantic coast, ridging over the Midwest/Southeast and upper low over the Western half of the country. 77 The prevailing NW flow aloft on the western flank of the aforementioned upper low just off the New England coast has brought a generally subsident environment across the Southeast. For tonight, expect pleasant, warm conditions to prevail with overnight lows expected to be a little warmer in the upper 50s to low 60s.
with a trough of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. 12z soundings support max temps in the lower 90s but cloud cover and winds should shave 4-6 degrees from those values.
608 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the region will continue to support fair weather over the region through Wednesday. High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest dew points only in the lower 50s. Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm front lifts into the area.
The 12Z NAM & GFS greatly increase POP's tonight as a result of a weak upper trough and pool of deeper moisture moving across the area, and will at least include isolated cells across our north, but a lack of instability, dry sub-850 mb layer and anti-cyclonic flow at the surface suggest lower POP's might be more realistic. By tomorrow, a deep low pressure system will set up over the central Plains, with a highly amplified pattern developing aloft.
1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Water vapor satellite early this morning indicates a couple of short wave troughs are over the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. Dew points are currently in the lower 60s where this activity is occurring and then drop into the lower to middle 50s across eastern Iowa so the weakening trend in the hi-res models makes sense. Heights will start to lower again tonight as the next short wave trough comes out of the Rockies and moves across the Dakotas. Not as good agreement between the models as to whether a second complex will form farther south over Kansas on the nose of the low level jet. As this wave is coming across, the low level jet should start to strengthen again during the afternoon with the nose of this possibly right over the forecast area.
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region through early tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
604 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure across southern new england will lift north tonight.
(Issued 1046 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016) Even with the cloud cover currently moving through, temps are on the rise this morning reaching into the mid/upper 70s! The upper level ridge just off to our west will stream in additional cloud cover and some moisture into the region today. Looking at BUFR soundings, they moisten throughout the day slowly eroding the large amount of dry air in the low/mid levels. However, depending on cloud cover temps could go a little bit warmer.
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Upper level heights begin increasing today as the ridge begins building. The low level thicknesses and 850 temps are generally the same as previous runs.
Synopsis: A pair of upper lows under a broad upper trough will make for unsettled conditions over northeast Montana, with the lower Yellowstone valley and adjacent areas seeing significant rainfall into Wednesday. this weak circulation has a good moisture source, and will rapidly deepen in the mid and low levels, driving widespread rainfall mainly targeted over the lower Yellowstone valley late tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening the low will slowly drift into North Dakota sending the best precipitation band northward along the Montana/North Dakota border.
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Mostly sunny, breezy, and warm conditions prevailed across central Illinois this afternoon as the area remained under the influence of surface/upper ridging. Thanks to continued southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, overnight low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s.
157 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will push east across the region through this afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies are expected.
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift of the Southeastern Coast of the U. This will allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week. A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the north on Wednesday. However the coverage of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level ridge will remain fairly strong.
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Ridging influence and the associated dry weather pattern will begin to weaken its grip through the short term as a more active southwest flow aloft becomes established by late in the period. large-scale upper-level pattern continues fairly static with the larger wavelength troughiness stuck across the rockies and high plains and broad/weak ridging over the east.
Stationary upper low continues to spin over southern Saskatchewan, but the door has opened up to SW flow aloft with energy lifting out of the great basin and a little moisture advection up the high plains. Cooler Canadian air and temps only in the 50s to lower 60s are noted in our western CWA, so looking for mainly showers with perhaps isold ts in this area.
410 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the southeastern United States resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the week. Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently building over the southeastern CONUS.
Quiet weather remains this morning as upper low continues to spin over southern Saskatchewan. Latest guidance continues to show the possibility of some showers/weak thunderstorms developing over northwest North Dakota in cyclonic flow around the low. Otherwise, a dry day is forecast with the exception of far northwest North Dakota where diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the upper level low. The consensus is for this convection to potentially propagate northeast into western and central North Dakota through the night aided by modest low level warm air advection and moisture transport along and east of the inverted trough extending into southwest North Dakota.
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the region for the next several days.
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Hydro High pressure will slip away from the region today but should provide one more dry day. Actually the sfc front weakens overhead and becomes rather ill-defined, then begins to rebound north as a warm front on Wednesday. However it's unclear if the warm front will still be in our area or will have lifted into nrn lower mi.
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure across southern new england will lift north tonight.
406 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 The active pattern will continue as southwest flow aloft enters the region this afternoon ahead of a broad longwave trough positioned over the west coast. Lee-side low pressure will develop by late this evening over western Kansas, with a dryline running south into the Texas Panhandle. An effective warm front draped over the KS/NE border, combined with an eastward storm motion parallel with the boundary could lead to training storms along this boundary as it approaches NW Missouri.
This pattern is characterized by an upper low off the CONUS Atlantic coast, ridging over the Midwest/Southeast and upper low over the Western half of the country. 77 (Issued 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016) The prevailing NW flow aloft on the western flank of the aforementioned upper low just off the New England coast has brought a generally subsident environment across the Southeast. For tonight, expect pleasant, warm conditions to prevail with overnight lows expected to be a little warmer in the upper 50s to low 60s.