Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current projections area for the primary areas of convection to move east and be exiting the area towards sunrise tomorrow morning, but there will be some potential of redevelopment of showers farther west closer to the deepening mid-level cyclone.
Upper trough begins to move east of the region today. Temperatures will rise a few degrees today as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the area. The ridge will also bring an end to the showers for a couple days.
Places further inland may yet see temps reach into the low to mid 60s, with the diurnal cloud cover possibly limiting the warming that is going on at the sfc this afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight than last night but still chilly, with lows in the low to mid 30s and areas of frost. Despite deep mixing tomorrow winds will be light in the low levels of the atmosphere so not expecting any winds more than 10 mph. Models have come into decent agreement with low pressure developing over Western Texas on Tuesday and tracking northeast to around the Straights of Mackinaw by Wednesday night.
Confidence continues to increase with warmer conditions becoming more likely this weekend. A slower progression would result in a drier solution as an upper-level ridge predominates over the area.
With that said, expect some clearing to occur over the next couple of hours which will allow temps to rise into the lower 80s by the late afternoon.
742 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with the chance of rain beginning Wednesday through the end of the work week. Latest model data indicates gradually increasing rain chance late Wednesday as the eastern CONUS ridge begins to erode, with further warming and a humidity increase for wrn zones especially.
300 AM MST Tue May 24 2022 A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the northeast of the region today keeping temperatures near normal with a mix of sun and high clouds.
A warm front over the Deep South early this morning will lift to the KY/TN border by this evening. High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will provide us with a light east breeze. Tonight the warm front will continue to push northward and will be north of the area by morning.
Cooler weather returns later this week with possible light precipitation over Shasta County. Clear skies cover interior NorCal early this morning as the upper ridge axis moves closer to the coast, and high clouds spilling over the ridge have shifted further east.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: With high pressure persisting off the East Coast of Florida and a low pressure system developing over the Southern High Plains, southwesterly flow aloft will continue across our forecast area today. The front will lift northward as a warm front throughout today as the low develops over TX/OK. Given the lifting warm front and possibility for a squall line oriented favorably with deep-layer wind shear, will also advertise an isolated tornado threat in the Marginal severe risk today.
with maybe some brief improvements at some sites between the convection south of the NWD moving warm front. and a warm front lifts north. with the higher amounts across the SRN portion of AR.
The high pressure ridge located across FL is expected to build and expand northward along the SE US coast. Favorable boating conditions expected with the Atlantic ridge axis north of the local area keeping moderate onshore winds.
Widespread rain is expected to spread north across northeast Kansas and continue to spread across the forecast area throughout the day as large scale forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching upper level low.
1005 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 A weak low pressure will linger over southern and eastern NC today. The low pressure and associated weak front will push to the coast tonight. High pressure to the north will build into our region through Wednesday.
522 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest into the western Dakotas. Splitting upper level trof moves into the plains today. Upper low closes off over the Central Plains, while weaker northern stream trof crosses the Northern Plains. A few showers possible over south central South Dakota tonight/early Wednesday on northern periphery of upper low.
Things will change this afternoon as a warm front lifts northward across Middle Tennessee. Also expect considerably warmer temperatures and greater dew points on the other side of the front.
631 AM EDT Tuesday May 24 2022 A weak low pressure will linger over southern and eastern NC today. The low pressure and associated weak front will push to the coast tonight. High pressure to the north will build into our region through Wednesday.
Given the approaching upper-trough to the west, wind shear aloft will increase from the southwest, especially by the evening hours.
Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will leave out any mention of weather for now. This will setup southeasterly low level flow and warm temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the northeast of the region today keeping temperatures near normal with a mix of sun and high clouds.
957 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure northeast of the Bahamas continues to ridge west keeping a predominant SE wind flow over west central and southwest Florida. Temperatures will be well above average once again topping out in the low to mid 90's, except along the coast where the sea breeze will keep temps a few degrees cooler. Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will leave out any mention of weather for now. High pressure in the Atlantic continues to ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
With high pressure and dry air aloft, afternoon convection is unlikely. Deep layer ridging and dry mid/upper levels will prevail across south Florida through midweek. Guidance does depict a bit more favorable moisture advection on Wednesday as Atlantic moisture is transported around the base of the ridge. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the upper 80s along the east coast, to the lower 90s across the interior and west coast. Heat indices will have an identical distribution, ranging from the low to mid 90s.
420 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Widespread rain is expected to spread north across northeast Kansas and continue to spread across the forecast area throughout the day as large scale forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching upper level low.
After Wednesday, upper troughing will set up over the area increasing the chance for precipitation along with cooler afternoon temperatures that will last through the weekend. Dry and warmer weather is likely today, with further warming on Wednesday. At the same time, a thermal trough will set up along the coast resulting in breezy east to northeast winds over the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon. The thermal trough will shift inland on Wednesday and when this happens, typically results in warmer temperature for the interior westside valleys.
Early this morning, a negatively tilted upper level trough is pushing off the South Texas Coast, so a bulk majority of the anticipated precip has remained well to our South. This trough will eventually swing through our CWA as it becomes positively tilted. Later tonight, a cold front will march its way through Central Texas and towards our coast, arriving at the Brazos Valley around midnight. The environment still looks suitable for strong to severe storms as the cold front pushes through our area during the early morning hours.
Will continue to monitor observational trends for the possible need for a Dense Fog Advisory, but so far the lowest visibilities have been more isolated and shorter lived. Isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible again today, mainly for areas along and west of I-25 w/ the mid-level vort lobe on the back side of the central US trough. Precipitation chances will likely diminish significantly by 0z as the trough axis continues to shift to the east.
This high pressure will keep a persistent SE wind flow over the area with the seabreeze developing along the west coast each afternoon and pushing inland. 7 inches, which will keep rain and storm chances on the low side (20-30 percent). By Wednesday, an area of low pressure develops over the central U.
351 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the pattern through Wednesday night with seasonable temperatures and light breezes developing off the ocean.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central U. with ridging on both coasts 12z Wed. The trough axis moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Fri while the trough gets split into two branches. The southern branch closes a low off over the southern plains 18z Wed with the low going to the mid Mississippi Valley by 12z Fri while the northern branch stays progressive and takes a trough to the Canadian Maritimes by 12z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the ern half of the U. 12z Fri with another trough on the west coast. By 12z Sun, there is deep and broad troughing over the western half of the U.
Some of the higher reflectivity and heavier rainfall across AL could move over the Sequatchie Valley or eastern TN valley early this afternoon, but it still looks like the more widespread and stronger weather will hold off until later in the afternoon and evening. Expect more mid level clouds to move in with the northward marching warm front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 83 67 78 62 / 40 60 60 90 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 86 68 80 62 / 40 40 50 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 65 79 61 / 40 40 50 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 83 63 79 61 / 20 30 30 60 90.
Did add the mention of a few sprinkles this afternoon for areas between Aberdeen and Mobridge and largely north of US 12. Monitoring the upper level longwave trof that is still digging southward into the southern plains this morning (+140 knot upper jet streak punching south-southeastward through the intermountain west on the backside of the longwave trof). Over this region, the upper level split in the flow pattern being enhanced by this digging longwave trof, is creating a rather lackluster jet level steering flow. Models take a portion of energy out of the longwave trof and move it up through the central plains later today and tonight, and on up into the northern plains/western Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
1224 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure with mainly dry conditions through tonight. Warm frontal boundary lifts north Wednesday. Cold front by late week. High pressure across the area today, with drier conditions. Frontal boundary to our south will lift north on Wednesday as a deep upper low/trough takes hold across the central U. Minor changes to the forecast with a warm frontal boundary lifting slowly north across the OH River Wednesday morning into the evening hours.
As a low pressure lifts from the Great Plains towards Lake Superior this evening, expect cloud coverage to increase from south to north as the low pressure splits into a northerly and southerly low. The northerly low is progged to move through Upper MI Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing the TROWAL of the low over us from south to north. Given the rainfall amounts, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some ponding of water in a few isolated spots where the highest rainfall rates/the most rainfall occurs.
Issued by National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1127 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022 A trough and upper low have formed near Raton Pass over southern CO this morning. Additionally, an area of channeled vorticity will be over western portions, feeding into the base of the trough.
A weak, flat ridge is slowly building over the region this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The building ridge will compete with a mildly unstable, cool air mass and some of the strongest sunshine we get throughout the year. The building ridge will push back on the instability and limit the strength of the updrafts so we won't see any thunderstorms. Wednesday the ridge will be stronger and we aren't expecting any showers, though there will be another round of afternoon cloud cover.
1209 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with the chance of rain beginning Wednesday through the end of the work week. Rain chances are still progged to increase late Wednesday as ern CONUS ridging erodes and srn Plains low pressure develops along the lower MS River Valley, with further warming and a humidity increase expected across wrn zones especially.
356 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 A low pressure system continues to slowly make an eastward progression. Rainfall reports have ranged from one inch to over seven inches with the highest values in Harper and Sumner counties. Precipitation and cloud cover aided in temperatures to stay in the low 50s to low 60s.
Moist pattern with SWly flow aloft and upper low to the west initially over western KS expected to continue moving slowly east. As upper trough approaches, this plume will shift east into the state by late Wed night but more so on Thurs.
Cooler air filling in behind the upper level low over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma will drop overnight lows area wide, into the mid-40s. Northerly winds tomorrow afternoon will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s, even as heights and thickness' increase from the building ridge to our west. Breezy early afternoon winds will begin to ease as the ridge expands eastward, setting up a very pleasant Spring day and evening tomorrow. This is thanks to an upper low lumbering its way out of the southern Great Plains Wednesday night ahead of upper ridging with strong height rises and toasty thicknesses for the weekend.
255 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Cool high pressure over New England will ridge down into our area through Wednesday. Low pressure over northern Texas will strengthen as it moves northeast toward the Great Lakes with a cold front approaching our region from the west.
A strong storm could be possible but given overall weakening shear the threat is highly conditional and on the lower end. Heavy rainfall will be an increasing threat especially into the afternoon as a much more potent upper trough slides into the area from the west.
130 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure with mainly dry conditions through tonight. Warm frontal boundary lifts north Wednesday. Cold front by late week. High pressure across the area today, with drier conditions. Frontal boundary to our south will lift north on Wednesday as a deep upper low/trough takes hold across the central U. Minor changes to the forecast with a warm frontal boundary lifting slowly north across the OH River Wednesday morning into the evening hours.
Warmer and more humid air will continue north as well tonight. Another round of upper level energy will move across the area Wednesday night ahead of the approaching upper low, with more convection expected to move northeast across the area.
As the system approaches the region, the associated warm front will lift northward through the region with surface winds veering to the south and increase on Wednesday.
Two rounds of TSRA will arrive with the passage of a warm front and subsequent cold front, the former round now through 25/00Z and the latter round (potentially +TSRA) at 25/03Z through 25/15Z. /issued 1022 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022/ As of 10 AM CDT, a fast-approaching warm front has already crossed the I-20 corridor and will continue northward ahead of today's first round of thunderstorms that will arrive across the Ark-La- Tex late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
A cold front will push through the area late tonight and early Wednesday morning. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) The upper level low pressure system responsible for the rain will drift slowly east over the next couple days, maintaining rain chances across the area, especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
upper low responsible for the widespread precipitation will slowly move out of the area tonight through Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the 60s in western areas on Wednesday as precipitation ends early and at least some sun in the afternoon, but cooler in eastern areas with upper 50s with persistent clouds.
However, tonight, as a 40kt LLJ develops and a longwave trough shifts closer to the Mississippi river, showers and thunderstorms should flourish. Tomorrow, the trough will shift even closer to the Midsouth allowing storms to tap into marginally better dynamic energy. An area of enhanced area of southwest flow from east Texas across the lower Mississippi River will help to sustain updrafts. Additionally, numerous outflow boundaries will likely be in place and a warm front will lift north across the Midsouth ahead of the approaching longwave trough and attendant surface cold front.
Wednesday: The low will be located over south central Kansas by Wednesday morning. Any dry time tomorrow likely won't be long lived with the low moving into the area by Wednesday afternoon.
1142 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure continues to build into New England today, then drifts to east of the area by midweek.
While a weak mid to upper level trough is in place to our west, we will generally remain in split flow aloft through the near term. The weak ascent from the trough will help to spark some isolated showers this afternoon, mainly across the west. As the trough nudges closer, it will start to deamplify. The washed out trough axis moves through on Wednesday and highs will be a touch warmer than today, mainly in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Late in the day, the eastern slope of a broad western CONUS ridge will start to nudge into the west. Expect overnight lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
133 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 A warm front is in the process of lifting northward through Middle Tennessee, and we're already starting to see some cells appear along the Alabama state line.
An upper level low pressure system was over far eastern Colorado early this afternoon. The upper low continues to slowly move east over the central High Plains on Wednesday. we should see an uptick in light rain across central Kansas as some the upper low slowly moves eastward over the central High Plains. Highs will be resultantly warmer, ranging from the upper 50s in central Kansas to the upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. The upper low will be exiting the High Plains for Missouri on Wednesday night. The upper low continues east through the latter part of the week while upper level ridging builds over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
256 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Summary: High pressure over the Great Lakes with diurnally driven cumulus field over the region this afternoon occasionally producing some sprinkles.
Temps have been right on track today even with the rain moving in and have topped out in the mid to upper 50s farther north and east and the lower 50s elsewhere.
With some dry air, overnight lows will be cooler than the past few nights, with temperatures dropping into the low 60's or 50's in spots. The Midlands and CSRA will be in between high pressure aloft offshore and a slowly approaching upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley. A wedge of cooler air will slowly erode on Wednesday as a boundary lifts northward across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 233 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance High pressure that was in overhead early this morning has been slowly shifting east through the day as an area of low pressure takes shape in the southern plains. Widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as the low pressure over the southern plains quickly moves northeast to Northern Lake Michigan. Warmer weather is expected for the Memorial Day weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern U.
Meteorological Analysis: An upper low currently located over southeast Colorado will meander eastward along the Kansas / Oklahoma border through tomorrow. Showers and storms are ongoing around much of the eastern half of this low (affecting the eastern half of Oklahoma and southern Oklahoma / north Texas) with a dry slot extending up into northwest Oklahoma.
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 230 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance High pressure that was in overhead early this morning has been slowly shifting east through the day as an area of low pressure takes shape in the southern plains. Widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as the low pressure over the southern plains quickly moves northeast to Northern Lake Michigan. Warmer weather is expected for the Memorial Day weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern U.
1109 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest into the western Dakotas. Splitting upper level trof moves into the plains today. Upper low closes off over the Central Plains, while weaker northern stream trof crosses the Northern Plains. A few showers possible over south central South Dakota tonight/early Wednesday on northern periphery of upper low.
Upper level ridge over the region today will bring warmer and drier conditions through Wednesday.
Looking at current satellite imagery, there is high pressure ridging aloft building in from the west with an exiting trough to our east. This convection is expected to end by very early evening with high pressure building in from the west.
With the temperatures still a little cooler, especially out towards the higher terrain, cannot rule out some small graupel or hail. Wednesday should be a quiet day as ridging builds in.
245 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Upper trough digging into the central High Plains with east surface wind has lead to widespread precipitation across much of the area. Amounts have been on the lower side of expectations and some breaks are becoming more common, though south-central Kansas has seen some modest shallow redevelopment as of 19Z. Isentropic upglide weakens this evening with mid-levels drying, but moisture profiles increase late tonight into Wednesday as the upper trough/low moves in.
Heading into the late afternoon and evening hours, expect rain chances to gradually increase as upper level low slides just south of our area. As alluded to in the previous discussion, should see flow in the low to mid levels back and bring deeper moisture northward during the overnight period, with PWATs ranging from 0.
247 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 The upper level low pressure system will slowly move into the central plains tonight and Wednesday. From later tonight and Wednesday high pressure ridge aloft will be over Colorado with a moderate northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday as 700mb temperatures rise to +7C and corresponding afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
High pressure will remain in control today with afternoon temperatures a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday's readings.
High Pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will slowly move east tonight.
Dry and warmer conditions are expected to return over the weekend. Temperatures are holding steady in the low to mid 60s with light easterly winds. The latest surface analysis places a 1000mb low near the Texas Panhandle with high pressure over the Great Lakes. Aloft, water vapor imagery reveals a deepening trough over the Rockies.
301 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary near the Virginia and North Carolina border and bring unsettled weather to the region through midweek.
1243 PM MST Tue May 24 2022 An area of low pressure located just northeast of the region will keep temperatures near normal today with mostly clear skies.
It would not be surprising to also see a lone thunderstorm or two develop over the next few hours, though nothing organized is apparent in the high resolution guidance.
Showers with a few rumbles of thunder lifting through the TN Valley at this hour are associated with the warm front.
138 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure over the region through mid week keeps us dry with temperatures fairly close to late May averages.