Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will keep upper level ridging to the west of the CWA through the period. The surface pressure gradient should tighten this evening and maintain winds in the 10 to 15 kt range, so kept min temps more spatially uniform and several degrees higher than last night, when light winds and clear skies allowed low-lying areas to dip into the lower 20s. Modified Pacific Northwest airmass comes in behind a cold front that passes late Thursday night into Friday morning.
The 12Z models continue to develop a strong pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front this evening. South winds will be on the increase and should become gusty Friday night, as a weak mid-level disturbance and cold front approach the area.
Will keep the High Wind Warning as is with no changes expected. Some llvl instability is resulting in brief snow flurries/snow showers across the high valleys and eastern plains this afternoon. Models show a weakening upper level ridge axis moving across the region for Thursday and Friday this week. This will result in warmer temperatures with highs on Friday potentially around 50 degrees during the day along and east of I-25 before the next cold front pushes southward in the afternoon. The next potential High Wind event appears to be late Thursday night and early Friday morning as the 850mb to 700mb gradient rapidly increases ahead of the cold front. Models show the cold front moving across the eastern plains Friday night and into Colorado with some light snow possible across the east central plains from Douglas eastward to Chadron Nebraska.
Outside of the low clouds and fog VFR will prevail. VFR should return to all sites after 15Z as the low clouds and fog burn off. A cold front will move south through the region later this afternoon. Boundary layer winds across the northern and central waters will shift to the southwest later tonight ahead of a cold front.
an upper low moving through to our north will rotate in a band of low level moisture and weak lift. the higher elevations could see minor accumulations. The GSMNP and the higher elevation of Southwest Virginia could see around an inch of snow.
High pressure will build into the Southern Plains tonight and Thursday, resulting in VFR conditions with variable high clouds and northwest to north surface wind. Wind will gust to near 20 mph on Thursday most sites and then settle to light and variable Thursday evening as center of high pressure system settles over the area.
403 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 An upper level trough will allow for snow showers across the area today into Friday.
1113 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 We will see cooler air spreading into Kansas for tonight which will lower the daytime highs on Thursday, however values will still be above normal for late December averages.
327 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Cold front currently near the Pecos River surging southward and should be heading into northern Mexico by sunrise. Forecast soundings and MOS guidance indicate the potential for a mixture of rain, freezing rain and sleet across the Guadalupe Mountains and especially the Davis Mountains tonight.
342 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front is moving through Central AL this morning. For today, high pressure builds in to our west as the trough moves off to our east. Will monitor through the morning, and if winds trend higher than forecasted, a Wind Advisory may be needed, especially in the higher elevations.
407 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 The wintry mix will end this morning as a cold front exits the area. Hires models are indicating a quick end to the precipitation, with most, if not all, moving over the higher elevation counties in the east shortly after dawn. These locales will be where I have implemented the highest PoPs. Steepening lapse rates and a more favorable lake trajectory should support a period of efficient snowfall production, especially in the typical locales north of I-80 and in the high terrain through Friday. Have thus maintained the winter storm watch for the ridges of WV and MD in collaboration with neighboring offices.
307 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Pacific high pressure will continue building eastward into the central Plains this afternoon as an upper trough slides into the Upper Midwest. With more of a southwesterly surface wind trajectory, Friday may bring even warmer highs due the the influence of downslope.
357 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will move across the area on Thursday. sleet and freezing rain will develop overnight and change to rain after sunrise Thursday. Warm advection precipitation ahead of approaching cold front will develop west to east overnight. This will allow melting of pcpn and combined with temps falling into the mid 20s will pose a threat for a period of freezing rain.
323 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 06Z surface data has a cold front from eastern lower Michigan into the Tennessee Valley with high pressure over the Rockies. ahead of a digging west coast/eastern pacific trof.
1030 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was moving through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. 12z models are in good agreement that a Canadian cold front will move southeast through the area tonight. The snow squall parameter is the highest during the late morning and afternoon.
1117 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 Cold front making its way across the region pretty much on schedule. Big high pressure area over the Rockies and high plains will drift east as the upper trof moving through today deepens over the eastern US. Temperatures will begin to moderate by Friday afternoon as the low level flow turns out of the southwest.
216 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Early this morning, a mid- level trough was noted across the Great Lakes region with ridging aloft over the western CONUS. Lows will drop into the lower 20s.
1130 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 The prefrontal trough was advancing near schedule. /ISSUED 940 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016/ At 900 PM, a cold front extended from north of Shreveport to near Temple to north of Junction.
Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will be building ovr the area tonight and the winds aloft are expected to decrease a little, so mtn top winds should not be as strong later tonight. Dry weather is expected acrs southeast and south central CO on Thu as the upper level ridge builds a little more ovr the area. Temps acrs the sern plains will be cooler than today, with readings in the 40s. Upper level ridge overhead Thursday night shifts east on Friday with flat westerly flow ahead of a low pressure system off the coast of California.
1252 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A low pressure system will move south of the area tonight and a mid-level trough will continue precipitation chances across the region Thursday into Friday. Any rain/snow mix associated with the low pressure area to the south will come to an end early Thursday. But as the upper trough moves through, colder air will pour in during the day Thursday, and with cold advection in place this will also promote gusty winds by afternoon, perhaps up to 35 mph.
Cold front down along Tennessee River at 0230z with showers and isolated thunderstorms covering Middle Tennessee. Cold front by Nashville at 05z with back edge of rain cutting off along frontal boundary bisecting Middle Tennessee from Dale Hollow Lake to lawrenceburg.
Winds should diminish during the evening as a upper low rotate in some low level moisture and weak lift.
326 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 High pressure of Pacific (non-Canadian or polar) origin will build east into the southern Plains and then into the se U.
Vigorous cold front will bring a chilly end to 2016 for South South Florida will get a taste of winter to close out 2016 and kick off 2017. A frontal boundary associated with a low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes and northeastern United States will push across the peninsula of Florida today, enter South Florida tonight, and exit on Friday. Not much is expected in terms of rain with this front, the real story is the cooler, drier air expected in its wake.
1003 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 A line of convection has developed this evening along our cold front. along the upper trough axis noted on the water vapor imagery extending from Cntrl MO S into Cntrl AR that will traverse ESE overnight. as the upper jet remains positioned over the Srn Plains beneath the aforementioned MS Valley trough. and ahead of the Ern Pacific closed low. These lower clouds about to shift out of the KTXK and KTYR terminals, with little if any lower clouds or precip as cold front moves across these terminals btwn 29/03-05Z.
The deepest of convection (as of 06:30Z/12:30 AM) was along the cold front in Mississippi, though budding cells have also been noted across central Alabama. /61/ A cold front will move through tonight, bringing a line of showers and a few thunderstorms.
331 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Today-Friday: Brisk northwest winds anticipated today will become light downslope tonight as high pressure builds in the region.
419 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 The wintry mix will end this morning as a cold front exits the area. Hires models are indicating a quick end to the precipitation, with most, if not all, moving over the higher elevation counties in the east shortly after dawn. These locales will be where I have implemented the highest PoPs. Steepening lapse rates and a more favorable lake trajectory should support a period of efficient snowfall production, especially in the typical locales north of I-80 and in the high terrain through Friday. Have thus maintained the winter storm watch for the ridges of WV and MD in collaboration with neighboring offices.
359 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning and move off the coast by early this afternoon.
A warm front moved across the state last night and this morning, bringing warmer air and gusty westerly winds to our area. In addition, a cold front is forecast to enter northwestern ND early this evening and sweep southeast across the state. Upper level ridge tries to continue to build east into the Northern Plains Thursday night but is flattened by a clipper system moving east-southeast along the Canadian border on Friday.
409 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 The wintry mix will end this morning as a cold front exits the area. Hires models are indicating a quick end to the precipitation, with most, if not all, moving over the higher elevation counties in the east shortly after dawn. These locales will be where I have implemented the highest PoPs. Steepening lapse rates and a more favorable lake trajectory should support a period of efficient snowfall production, especially in the typical locales north of I-80 and in the high terrain through Friday. Have thus maintained the winter storm watch for the ridges of WV and MD in collaboration with neighboring offices.
As of 04:15Z/10:15PM, Doppler radar showed a batch of eastbound- moving showers and thunderstorms across northern Alabama; however, since the 9PM hour, stronger and deeper convection has formed near the cold front from northern Mississippi to southern Arkansas. A warm front has moved north this evening and is draped across central Alabama. Dew points are in the low-mid 60Fs south of the front. /61/ A cold front will move through tonight, bringing a line of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Dry, warmer weather is expected through Thursday with northerly breezes affecting parts of the lower Colorado River Valley. The first of a series of systems will bring light rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures to the region Friday followed by a second system which could impact parts of the area New Years Eve.
1113 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 A cold front has pushed through all area TAF sites, and presently stretches from near KLZZ to KTPL to KPSN. In its wake, drier and cooler air is filtering into the region on northerly winds. Dry line/cold front movg into western sections with dewpoints in upper 50s and lower 60s.
918 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2016 Surface pressure is rising across the forecast area this evening, as an upper level ridge extends eastward across the PacNW. Winds aloft will continue to be strong but will weaken somewhat as high pressure aloft continues to build. A weak ridge of high pressure will move over the Treasure State tonight before the next weather system approaches tomorrow afternoon. On Friday, a weak and fast-moving weather system will push a cold front into the region with winds shifting north and light snow developing.
359 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front pushed off the Cumberland Plateau overnight and by 3 am a band of trailing clouds lingered over our extreme eastern areas. Upper trough deepens over the eastern United State through tonight and then starts to pull east on Friday. As 1000-700mb moisture increases in base of trough tonight, values increase to around 70% in our extreme northeast.
Temperatures tonight will fall to a few degrees on either side of 30, as a steady northwest breeze advects in a somewhat cooler and considerably drier airmass. High pressure will settle south into the southern High Plains on Thursday. Winds on Friday will be strongest across the Osage Plains, combining with the low humidity to produce widespread fire weather conditions across the western half or so of the forecast area.
339 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Pacific high pressure centered over the Rockies moves into Texas today. the forecast shows 30 to 40 mph gusts with the higher speeds north. Temperatures are much cooler north with highs in the 30s where there is snow cover. a warm front currently across British Columbia will lift through Nebraska. New Year's weekend will be dry, but a cold front will surge south through the area late Friday night as an Alberta Clipper system crosses the northern plains.
This system in tandem with an upper-level jet streak developing from the northern Inter-mountain Region to Ohio Valley will contribute to considerable amplification of a broader-scale trough east of the Mississippi Valley during the later half of the work week. Strong gradient flow in the low levels will continue tonight through much of the day Thursday, yielding breezy to windy conditions (especially Thursday afternoon). High temperatures on Thursday will be somewhat cooler than previous days --but still above normal-- and in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south. On Friday, zonal flow aloft will induce a deepening lee trough at the surface over the High Plains, which in turn, will promote downslope-induced warming with highs again back into the 40s to around 50.
408 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning and move off the coast by early this afternoon.
06Z TAF discussion: A line of thunderstorms moving south with a cold front is currently bringing heavy rain and gusty winds through the KGLH and KGWO TAF sites, but will eventually reach KHBG by around 12Z Thursday. A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings is possible before the cold front arrives, as low clouds move across the area. Looks like convection was blowing up over central AR and N Louisiana near the 850 trough axis. Temperatures were good, cooler air was just on the other side of the boundary and it was making eastward progress. The ridge building in from the west should push the system through the area overnight, so temperatures in the 40s north were good. Models seem to agree the boundary will be out of here by morning, with clear skies and cooler air.
For tomorrow night a ribbon of high pressure moves through, so will stick with light winds and a dry forecast. Models seem to be in decent agreement in depicting most of the pcpn along and north of the highway 2 corridor, but the highest amounts even closer to the Canadian border.
223 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Upper level trough shifting eastward from the Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region early this morning. Fire weather will be main focus the next couple of days both at the front of the high building in today and on the back side of the high on Friday. Over the upcoming weekend, we will be dealing with a closed low (currently) in the Pacific, opening up and bringing in precipitation chances. it will be colder than the past couple of days with cold air advection in the lower levels as the high pressure system builds in.
311 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Currently cold front had exited Monroe County taking with with it the last of the precipitation. Post frontal temperatures ranged from the low 40's in the north to the upper 50's in the far southeast. digging upper trough in the Mississippi Valley will shift east this period leaving a northwest upper flow over the area.
147 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will move across the area on Thursday. sleet and freezing rain will develop overnight and change to rain after sunrise Thursday. Warm advection precipitation ahead of approaching cold front will develop west to east overnight. This will allow melting of pcpn and combined with temps falling into the mid 20s will pose a threat for a period of freezing rain.
A long wave trough is transversing the upper Midwest and the flow is slowly veering to the northwest. With the surge of cooler air tomorrow, there will also be fairly strong winds in the lowest 2-4km of the atmosphere. Picking up the forecast on Thursday night, the trough discussed in the short term will be departing to the east but we did hang on to some low pops in western Wisconsin for snow showers in cyclonic flow and cold air advection. For Friday another system will be quickly on the heels of the departing trough.
109 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front stalled just south of the area may return northward as a warm front tonight ahead of a stronger cold front that will cross the area Thursday.
1121 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 A cold front has moved swd to near I-30 corridor.
The passage of a cold front around mid-morning Thursday will mix out the fog and bring a chance of rainfall, with breezy north winds. The fog is expected to be quickly scoured out a couple of hours after sunrise courtesy of the passage of a cold front, which will also produce scattered showers within the BRO CWFA Thursday morning, with the precipitation becoming much more isolated Thursday afternoon and ending by the start of Thursday evening.
Surface pressure is rising across the forecast area this evening, as an upper level ridge extends eastward across the PacNW. Winds aloft will continue to be strong but will weaken somewhat as high pressure aloft continues to build. A weak ridge of high pressure will move over the Treasure State tonight before the next weather system approaches tomorrow afternoon. On Friday, a weak and fast-moving weather system will push a cold front into the region with winds shifting north and light snow developing.
Evening update: Low pressure is approaching the Pacific Northwest coast, near Vancouver Island, and the warm front is making its was toward the WA coast and Cascades. Cote' 06Z TAFS: A warm front starts to lift in tonight into early Thursday, bringing thickening and lowering clouds. Some flurries or a brief snow shower may also slip by GEG/SFF/COE in the morning hours as the warm front is lifting through, but the risk is better north and west of here.
920 PM PST Wed Dec 28 2016 Weak high pressure aloft and light offshore flow at the surface will continue fair and mild weather Thursday. Cooler Friday with a chance of showers as low pressure moves across the region.
1120 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 Weak cold front currently moving through the region with all observation sites now reporting northwest winds in its wake. Afternoon mid-level clouds this afternoon should clear overnight as high pressure begins building across the High Plains and points east. Quiet weather to persist for the remainder of the week as aforementioned high pressure remains in control.
Looks like convection was blowing up over central AR and N Louisiana near the 850 trough axis. Temperatures were good, cooler air was just on the other side of the boundary and it was making eastward progress. The ridge building in from the west should push the system through the area overnight, so temperatures in the 40s north were good. Models seem to agree the boundary will be out of here by morning, with clear skies and cooler air.
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The 19z surface analysis indicated that a weak cold front was becoming nearly stationary just to the north of the forecast area through middle Tennessee. A warm front was also extending northeast from near meridian Mississippi to just south of Montgomery Alabama and into central Georgia. The short term models are in decent agreement involving moving the weak cold front or frontal boundary southeast slowly through the forecast area on Wednesday.
The rest of Mid TN will be mainly in the lower 70s.
Highs Wednesday will be slightly warmer, into the middle 60s most areas. Cooler lakeshores where lake breezes reside.
A weak short wave ridge remains in place over the central high plains region through tonight and Wednesday ahead of the upper low center that sweeps through southern California and southern Arizona tonight and into northwest New Mexico by Wednesday evening. With high pressure generally expected to move into the area and remain in place through Wednesday, dryer conditions and warmer temperatures are expected.
Weak disturbance continues to move through central Montana this evening before short wave ridging builds over the region on Wednesday.
/issued 344 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ The short term period begins with the local area largely between major weather systems with high pressure well east of the area off the Carolina coast and a weak low pressure over west Texas.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevail over the area with a decent amount of sun filtering through to warm temperatures into the lower 80s. Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows wly flow continues aloft with one disturbance over the ern gulf and another upstream crossing the big bend region, while an upper low continues to spin as it drops south over the wrn US.
Weak low level trough will extend across central portions of the area while a frontal boundary will be over portions of SE GA and the Carolinas. Mid and upper level trough over the ern U. will dig slightly swd helping to push the trough and sfc front southward over the SE states.
One last night of upper ridging will continue clear skies and cool temperatures tonight. Wednesday will be a transition day as an upper trough digs into the pacific northwest. Forecast models are showing a dry start with the intital push of moisture and instability associated with the upper trough.
Farther east, persistent cloud cover has kept temperatures cool and the lower levels stable. A cold front moving into the Hill Country late this afternoon provides upward forcing to increase showers and thunderstorms.
A second round of rain is expected this evening and overnight, as a wave of low pressure begins pushing eastward across the region along a nearly stationary frontal boundary located just to the south of our area.
352 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front has pushed through most of the area today reinforcing the unseasonably cool air in place across the area. The exception is far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, where the shallow cool air has had a tough time traversing the higher terrain. It appears Tulsa will set a record low maximum temperature for May 17th as the current record is 65, and the high today looks like it will be 64, which occurred in the predawn hours.
with high pressure building over the area from the north.
Will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the cumulus area with upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere. Expect to see lots of sun again today with 850mb temps about 3c or so warmer, but winds staying on the lighter side.
With most of the rainfall falling near KTRI, the low clouds and visibilities will drop to LIFR and possibly into VLIFR (low confidence).
Upper ridge is coming into our CWA from the northwest as yesterday's low moves south through Nevada. Ridge axis will pass through our CWA from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning, and Wednesday will become quite warm. A weak wave just north of the ridge will provide a slight chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday to the mountains of Baker County, OR, and Valley and Boise counties in Idaho. Surface cold front will approach from the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night, supported by deep upper trough.