Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This activity is in association with a large upper level trof that is moving across the greater region.
Overall the forecast is relatively unchanged temperatures expected to be a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 43 63 39 / 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 40 60 36 / 20 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 39 61 35 / 20 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 37 57 33 / 40 10 10 10.
So we will let the high temperature grid ride in light of abundant sunshine for much of the area.
Winds are generally light and variable across the CWA, under a weak surface pressure gradient and advancing high pressure. With 1-3 inches of snow on the ground across much of the area and overcast conditions expected to persist through the entire day, have lowered afternoon high temperatures into the lower 40s. High pressure will bring clearing skies, but continued chilly conditions on Tuesday as high temperatures remain well below normal in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Winds will remain light as high pressure is in place.
1009 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure ridging southward from Canada will direct weakening low pressure south of the Ohio River Valley today. Another weakening upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday.
In a refreshing change from recent times, the wind will be light due to relatively high pressure overhead. Mins will halt right around freezing in the SE, but some clearing is possible tonight after the main short wave trough passes.
otherwise the area remains under the influence of weak high pressure off the Carolina coastline. After a cool weekend, temps are progged to creep back closer to normal values, although latest MOS runs are a few degrees cooler than previous runs.
with weak low pressure NE of Cape Canaveral. A warm front will stall across the Fl waters today. Waves of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary which will re-energize it and push it south of the waters by Tuesday night. A brief period of SCA conditions possible Tue/Tue night with the cold front. Improving conditions towards end of the week as a large area of high pressure builds across the waters.
Temperatures are well on their way to reaching the upper 80s along the coasts to the lower 90s inland, 5 to 7 degrees above seasonal norms.
933 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Drier air continues to filter into the Tennessee Valley this morning, finally helping to scour out the low clouds that have persisted across the region for the past several days. The welcome sunshine, however, will help to warm temperatures back into the low to mid 60s (around 10-12 degrees higher than yesterday).
After yesterdays record breaking heat today should be cooler. as a dry cold front continues to track south across the CWA. According to the excellent and very helpful Texas Tech mesonet system the cold front has yet to make it to Big Lake. with cooler air possibly filtering thru the mtns. A secondary dry cold front will move thru the area tonight making it to the Rio Grande by Tuesday morning. Have held off on putting out a Watch or Warning for GDP at this time due to the short timeframe of the high winds and the uncertainty of the timing.
Drier air continues to filter into the Tennessee Valley this morning, finally helping to scour out the low clouds that have persisted across the region for the past several days. The welcome sunshine, however, will help to warm temperatures back into the low to mid 60s (around 10-12 degrees higher than yesterday).
An upper level ridge will move through WA and OR today. The Pacific Northwest will be under a transitory upper level ridge today and tonight. Thus will see dry and warmer conditions across the area through tonight. This next system's cold front should be through the region by Tuesday afternoon. Thus will see varying coverages of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening with the highest coverages over the eastern mountain zones. Snow levels will fall Tuesday afternoon and evening, though they will remain above 4200 feet at the lowest Tuesday evening. Winds will increase to breezy across the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys, as well as the Gorge, behind the cold front.
1028 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Light precipitation chances return today with a trough of low pressure.
Areas of low pressure will move northeastward along the front.
A cold front was sagging southward at mid morning and was positioned across Northwest Oklahoma to just north of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma and into Southwest Missouri. the cold front will continue to shift southward through the CWA with breezy northerly winds while the upper level impulse pushes eastward across Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma. have added a few minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids to account for cold front moving through along with current trends and observations.
1021 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 A warm front has lifted north of the area based on recent theta-e analysis and wind observations. Deep moisture in proximity to the boundary indicates the highest rain chances will be across north Florida; however, ample moisture remains over the area to support scattered rain chances given daytime heating. A warm front recently lifted to the north of KDAB/KLEE; however, ample low-level moisture left in its wake will support a couple more hours of MVFR ceilings, especially across our northern terminals.
An upper level trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS today, with a strong jet streak north of our area stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Beneath the southern edge of this feature, a warm front at the surface will gradually lift northward early this morning, then stall near the northeastern Gulf Coast through the remainder of the day. Deepest moisture will remain along and south of the front, so the highest precipitation chances will be confined to the FL Big Bend area, with lesser chances elsewhere.
These showers are expected to continue into the morning as mid level ridging over the intermountain west will hold this quasi-stationary synoptic pattern with northwesterly mid level flow. Going forward into the afternoon and early evening hours, a cold front is expected to move into the region starting in the northeastern Panhandles in the early afternoon hours and progress southwestward keeping temperatures well below average. In the wake of the cold front, a second mid level perturbation will work its way southeast from the high terrain along the CO/NM border.
A cold front will sweep though the area bringing mostly VFR clouds with some risk of MVFR clouds late this afternoon into the overnight hours. /issued 448 AM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018/ Today won't be near as windy and warm as yesterday thanks to Yesterday's late evening cold front.
High pressure pushes in to the region from the central plains right behind the exiting frontal system. This ridge dominates the Southeastern states weather pattern through the end of the work week. This ridge also brings in another cool airmass with low temps Wed and Thu mornings mainly in the 30s and 40s across North and Central GA. This ridge does not stay stationary through the period. As this ridge pushes off shore. A sharp cold front is expected to impact the CWA during the weekend.
930 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure ridging southward from Canada will direct weakening low pressure south of the Ohio River Valley today. Another weakening upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday.
Chances for precipitation will linger into this evening across the area before high pressure builds in and keeps most areas dry until late week. A low pressure system will bring chances for rain late week into the weekend. Temperatures will fall to a little below freezing, but road temperatures are mainly above freezing. However, elevated road surfaces and some rural untreated roads could dip to below freezing and create some slick spots, so will continue with a Special Weather Statement about slick spots for the morning rush hour.
BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: forecast begins with the center of the coldest air over Nunavut and a trough dropping south of it into Ontario and the upper and middle Mississippi valley. To the west, Hot air has begun to build over the Desert Southwest and ridge rides north of this out of California up into British Columbia. This has placed the the High Plains of Montana under northwest flow aloft. Farther west, a Pacific trough is spinning over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Tuesday: with northwest flow and ridge pressing in from the west, temperatures will rise today through Tuesday with highs above freezing for much of the area. the ridge itself will peak on Tuesday bringing Highs in the 40s.
Snow has ended across these areas and travel conditions will continue to improve this morning as temperatures warm into the lower 30s. Surface analysis early this morning as an area of low pressure passing southeast along the NE/IA border. Snow was falling ahead of this low extended up across northeast IA into southwest WI. This low will continue pushing southeast with snow diminishing/exiting the area by mid-morning. High pressure build into the region tonight for partly cloudy skies with overnight lows dropping into the 20s. Warm air advection kick in Tuesday on the backside of the departing high and in advance of low pressure passing through southern Canada.
Water vapor imagery and surface analysis reveals slow moving deep short wave troughing across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into New England. A large upper level ridge of high pressure currently over the intermountain west will move east and lead to building heights across the western Great Lakes through the period.
/issued 925 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017/ Aloft - A trough reaches from Canada south to the Gulf coast while weak ridging extends across FL and the east Gulf from the Atlantic. Surface - A front is draped across far northern Fl with an Atlantic ridge reaching over FL. gov For the update today - The ridging aloft and surface will be in control with a moist.
Winds will turn back around to the south-southeast on Friday, but highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today in some areas.
155 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Quiet weather will continue, as the cool and deep upper trough slowly shifts eastward. After one more cooler morning, with lows close to 50, some lower 80s are expected by afternoon over the southwest CWA. Through the weekend, the Midwest will remain under the influence of high pressure over the Great Lakes.
With the cold front through the area, TAF sites will remain precipitation free. Dry air, especially at mid-levels, continues to funnel into our area as the cold front moves south and east across the northeastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. Due to northerly flow and persistent high clouds, temperatures will remain below average today with highs in the lower-mid 80s.
Have dropped low temperatures for Friday morning given this morning's readings in some of the lower drainage areas.
420 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 A cold front will exit the area this afternoon. A weak ridge of high pressure will cross the area tonight.
224 PM MDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues this afternoon as the forecast area remains between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over the east. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure exists over the west with high pressure over the midwest and southeastern states. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than average.
As a result, temperatures will be running around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday at peak heating. An upper ridge will remain overhead through the weekend then shift to the northwest while Hurricane Irma moves up the east coast into the southeast states. Under the influence of the ridge, we will remain fairly dry with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. As the center of the upper ridge shifts back to the northwest, northerly flow aloft will take hold.
407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 An upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will shift to New England through Friday.
Highs will show very little variation and be cooler than normal away from the coast. Should fall well short of recent hot days, however it will be noticeable in light of the cooler conditions today. An upper level low currently over the Bay Area will give a slight chance of showers or maybe a thunderstorm to the area through the day. Cooler temperatures are expected today as cooler air aloft filters in with high temps progged to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler in some areas. The upper trough is forecast to then remain off the west coast for the next several days. A warming trend is indicated for later in the week as the upper low shifts to the south and high pressure aloft noses in from the west.
1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 North northwest winds aloft will continue into today and tonight as sharp upper level ridging continues to expand across the central US. Weak low pressure drops south along the Minnesota and North Dakota border late tonight, with surface winds turning southeast to east overnight.
Synoptic Setup: A large ridge resides will remain over the western half of the CONUS and Canada the next few days with a large trough over the eastern halves. south central montana lies on the warmer side of this northerly upper air pattern. Farther west another highly amplified trough lies off shore over the eastern Pacific. This afternoon through tonight: Ridge will begin to topple over in northern Canada while the axis will move into western Montana.
1118 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2017 At 3 am, a few light showers were noted over the CO/NM border across the higher terrain. Temps across the area were pretty homogeneous, with 50s across the plains and valleys and 40s over most of the higher terrain. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with temps cooling into the 50s across the plains and 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.
352 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 An upper level trough will gradually begin to move out the region tonight into Friday. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for the weekend. Slightly warmer temperatures around 50 degrees will be present along and south of the Ohio river Friday night. High pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend.
543 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 A deep upper-level trough will influence our weather for the next several days.
520 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 A deep upper-level trough will influence our weather for the next several days.
Upper level ridging will build across the region through the weekend keeping any chance of Irma making any kind of headway into the gulf at a minimum.
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 High pressure over the Ohio valley will keep the PAH forecast area dry into Friday. South winds across the area will give us a little warmer temperatures tonight into Friday, with lows around 50 degrees and highs around 80 degrees. The high will move east as another area of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes region for the weekend.
Upper flow pattern across NOAM remains highly amplified, with a broad eastern CONUS trough and ridge over the Intermountain West. Potential to be a bit cooler (mid 60s) in some northern areas if earlier arrival of thicker mid/high clouds. Elsewhere, resulting light southerly flow and clouds also support a warmer night, and generally have lows area-wide in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Models appear to be trending more aggressive on mid/level rh and slower, thus if any delta on lows tonight would likely be warmer by a few degrees mainly I-80 corridor N/E. However, the cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue.
An upper trough from Canada south to the Gulf coast continues as an upper ridge slides into the western Gulf. A frontal boundary resides across northern FL as weak ridge across central FL this afternoon begins to give way to approaching Irma. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal for the lows tonight.
323 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather for the remainder of the week. A rather tranquil fall like scenario with high pressure of Canadian origin continues to dominate our weather with mostly dry and cooler than normal conditions. This puts a track through the southern Appalachians towards the lower to middle Ohio Valley. High pressure in control through 12Z Friday. Westerly winds 4 to 8 KTS with higher gusts on ridgetops this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, becoming near calm tonight.
1139 AM MDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge continuing to be pushed southward. Tonight a weak upper level short wave trough will move over the forecast area from the west. Friday night an upper level short wave trough will develop northwest of the forecast area. Models have shifted the short wave trough and nose of the low level jet to the west compared to last night.
Low pressure off the West Coast has caused high pressure to weaken over the area with two separate circulations having formed. This will result in increased clouds and showers/thunderstorms and cooler temps.
214 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Rain ends and clouds exit the region tonight as high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes into Friday. Warmer Friday with highs in the low to mid 60s and sunny skies. Winds will become nearly calm as high pressure builds in, and while skies should remain mainly clear overnight there is a risk for fog/stratus to develop across portions of the Northland. This wind direction will result in slightly cooler temperatures along the north shore, but otherwise highs in the low to mid 60s expected.
The short wave is associated with an impressive deep trough that extends from 78N or so all the way into the southeastern US. It's displaced a bit from the upper low at 78N, with an impressive ridge from the southwest US all the way northward into the Northwest Territories. The ridge is progressive, and upper heights over MN/WI rise substantially tonight and tomorrow.
Expect we will be a degree or two warmer at most sites which will keep most areas above records.
357 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 An amplified upper ridge over the Rockies and a longwave trough over the Eastern United States has resulted in a dry northwest flow aloft over the region.
High pressure continues its hold on the forecast area Friday. Max daytime temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today but still well below seasonal norms.
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was moving southeast through Wisconsin.
By mid-afternoon, our temperatures had recovered into the middle and upper 60s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere.
A deep upper level trof extended from Hudson Bay southward through Ohio and eastern KY/TN. This trof will slowly start to pull northeast during today but still be close enough to central IL to bring more diurnally driven cumulus clouds by late morning and afternoon. The strong upper level trof lifts into the eastern Great Lakes Friday with 500 mb heights rising to 582-584 dm over central IL by sunset Fri and 850 mb temps rising to around 12C.
528 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Somewhat drier air will continue to filter into the area tonight behind an exiting cold front.
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 The near term portion of the forecast will feature continued cooler than normal temperatures and dry and pleasant weather across eastern Kentucky. Based on the expected conditions, valley locations should see temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s by early Friday morning, while the surrounding ridges only fall into the upper 40s. Highs on Friday are forecast to only make it into the lower 70s.
A broad upper level trough across the east central US this morning will lift northeast into New England by 12Z FRI. A minor H5 trough will dig southeast across western KS. The better ascent ahead of the trough and stronger isentropic lift will remain across west central KS where a few showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop, but these storms will move southeast and will remain well west and southwest of the CWA.
244 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Cool weather and shower chances can be expected until high pressure builds this weekend. Upper-level trough axis swings over us later today, expanding downlake clouds and showers. This is in response to multiple ripples passing through the mean resident trough with cold mid-level temperatures holding. Lows tonight will again be cooler than average, but with increased clouds expected, may be a few degrees warmer than this morning's readings. Weak disturbance will cross through the broad upper-trough before it departs the area Friday evening. High pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft will bring dry weather with stunted temperature moderation. MVFR stratocu will persist under upper troughing with scattered showers possible through early evening. Brief restrictions are possible through Fri under an upper trough.
The axis of a strong upper trough will lift northeast of the region by Friday, though weak northwest flow will persist across the local area.
High pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to build down into the forecast area through the period. To the west, a narrow mid to upper level ridge axis extended from just south of the Four Corners ESE into TX. At the SFC, a large area of high pressure prevailed across the PLains into the Mid MS River Valley, while to the south, Hurricane Katia was meandering over the Bay of Campeche. A pleasant, and dare I say a bit cool, morning unfolding across the region, with temperatures mostly in the lower/mid 60s, though there are a few upper 50s noted as well. Meanwhile, the ridge to our west is forecast to amplify, which will send Katia on a SW track into Mexico.
Another cool night on tap for Central Alabama as high pressure and dry air remain the dominant weather features across the region. Light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s north and mid to upper 50s south.
The movement of the upper ridge eastward and resultant change in mid/upper level flow to the WSW will likely advect in additional smoke from the west tonight through early Friday.
/issued 335 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center places a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico from northern Florida to the offshore waters of Tamaulipas in Mexico. This will result in increasing cloudiness during this time period with isolated showers over the Lower Texas coastal waters and immediate three coastal counties tonight, and then along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor on Friday. The passage of the aforementioned cold front and increasing cloudiness are expected to hold temperatures at near normal values through the entire short term forecast period.
318 PM MDT Thu Sep 7 2017 A negatively tilted upper ridge over the western U. Moisture has been gradually increasing over southern Colorado the past couple days, but is being held over those areas by the nearly stationary ridge axis. As the sharpness of the ridge relaxes some overnight and Friday, a little bit of this moisture will move over central Colorado and be in place to fuel afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains tomorrow. The upper level ridge over the intermountain west will progressively move eastward through the weekend. A deepening trough over the west will be pushing south helping to usher in increasing subtropical moisture into the four corners region and Colorado.
303 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Somewhat drier air will continue to filter into the area tonight behind an exiting cold front.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will be pushing across the region tonight bringing winds around to east to northeast then to the southeast on Friday.
357 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 The near term portion of the forecast will feature continued cooler than normal temperatures and dry and pleasant weather across eastern Kentucky. Based on the expected conditions, valley locations should see temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s by early Friday morning, while the surrounding ridges only fall into the upper 40s. Highs on Friday are forecast to only make it into the lower 70s.
The large scale pattern showed a ridge centered across the Intermountain West and upper level troughing across the Great Lakes region.