Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure is moving to the east this evening, as a wave of low pressure moves east across SE GA, and into the coastal waters. A cold front will move southeast into region Saturday morning, then slowly track to the southeast through the day. The front will move to the southeast of the region Sunday morning, with high pressure building to the northwest.
1122 PM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Dry nw flow aloft transitions to a ridge of high pressure by 19/18Z with a weak sfc lee trough.
/22/ Prior discussion below: High pressure and drier air will build back into the region behind the low pressure pulling away to the northeast. The northern edge of the forecast area will be on the edge of the lingering cloud cover with cyclonic flow around the low. Early morning low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s.
Wind speeds are still forecast to be a tad on the high side, so this will continue to be monitored with each update. After the exit of tonight's wave, ridging builds again which will continue the warm temperatures for Saturday. However, lower level wind speeds shown on forecast vertical wind profiles are a bit on the high side and subsequently the thermo profiles aren't quite saturating at the surface on forecast soundings. Similar high temperatures to today are expected on Saturday, though the progression of the next warm front may not reach the central-east until the evening, which may temper the highs east o the front.
Upper ridge is building from the Rockies into the plains as upper trough spreads toward the west coast. Today/tonight, upper/thermal ridge expands into the CWA as warm front develops from central MT into western NE. Sunday, upper trough splits as it moves east out of the Rockies. Thermal ridge peaks as temperatures rocket to the 60s/70s.
154 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Rain chances will linger through the weekend with crossing low pressure. There will be a relative lull in shower activity overnight before coverage begins to increase later in the morning with another round of positive vorticity advection and jet- induced ascent associated with an upper low transition over the Great Lakes provides support. Cold advection and upslope will support lingering rain/snow showers into early Sunday, but remaining precip will gradually diminish through the morning with building high pressure. Long range model ensembles indicate a slightly above climatological normal temperature trend, the potential for robust low pressure system mid- week with seasonable temperature. Restrictions and rain are likely again with midweek low pressure.
211 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Light and variable winds are anticipated today as the mid/upper ridge builds eastward across the area. Southerly winds will ramp up on Sunday as low pressure deepens across the high plains of eastern Colorado resulting in a tightening pressure gradient downstream across the Central Plains.
1228 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 (The rest of tonight) Mid level trof axis continued to shift eastward across Northwest Arkansas this evening while the upper level trof axis was backed slightly to the northwest. the low level cloud decks across Northwest Arkansas continued to push eastward with some scattered high clouds in Eastern Kansas trying to move into the far northeast corner of Oklahoma. Strongest winds at this time remained underneath the low level clouds in Northwest Arkansas. the mid/upper level trofs will continue to exit the region with mostly clear conditions becoming common over the CWA.
High pressure was in control across the Northland this afternoon. A large area of low pressure in eastern Missouri was spreading some fringe higher clouds over the southern reaches of the area as well. High pressure will remain in control for the weekend bringing dry conditions. Heading into the new week, a longwave trough will push through the Rockies into the Nation's midsection where it looks to stall out before becoming more positively tilted by midweek. Long range global models are in agreement with this trough and the development of low pressure in the Southern Plains/Panhandle region.
Sunday will be even warmer in the 70s, but with a gusty south wind that will likely result extreme fire danger.
Mid level ridging building in through the afternoon/evening should aid in warming temperatures above average once again today, from the upper 50s to upper 60s. However, with the timing of the strongest winds today offset from the lowest humidity, fire danger will be limited to High for most of the area, with Very High for far southeastern SD into northeastern NE. Ridging continues to build through the overnight hours, and surface winds shift to southerly. Warm air advection (WAA) will help to moderate temps through the overnight, remaining in the lower to mid 30s. Will likely see increasing cloud cover through the day as the ridge continues to slide east.
Upper flow tonight will remain out of the northwest as upper ridging builds over the Rockies. Upper ridging will eventually move overhead by tomorrow afternoon/evening and, along with light southwesterly winds, will help warm temps into low/upper 70s area wide. Overnight lows will likely be a few degrees cooler than what we saw this morning thanks to clear skies and light surface winds. Forecast confidence decreases beyond Sunday as guidance diverges notably regarding the depth of the western trough, how quickly it closes off over southern NM, and how quickly it ejects into the central plains. While the precise depth and the track of the upper low and the location and magnitude of sensible weather impacts remains unknown, there is now enough agreement on the general pattern for a few more details to become clear.
339 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Breezy and warm today ahead of an approaching cold front with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
These breezy downslope winds will help to dry and warm the area resulting in highs in the low to mid-70s and relative humidity values near 10 percent for the entire forecast area. Skies will remain mostly clear as an upper-ridge remains centered near the region. GKendrick Southwest flow aloft will increase Sunday in advance of a sharpening upper level low pressure trough digging into the southwest. Low level flow will back to southeast Sunday evening and surface dewpoints will increase into the lower or mid 40s from the southern South Plains into the Rolling Plains.
Thus, all the south winds will do is allow a little warmer air mass to return and tank afternoon humidities once again.
An upper level trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will move onshore later today, then deepen as it approaches the Four Corners region on Sunday. Cool nights with below normal low temperatures due to a dry airmass and light winds give way to warm days with near to slightly above normal high temperatures as a thermal ridge gets established.
304 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer and dry conditions for the weekend.
101 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Aviation It seems to me the threat for thunderstorms has shifted to our east as the low level jet axis is now more toward SE Lower Michigan and it will continue to shift to the east.
1102 PM MDT Fri Mar 18 2022 Water vapor shows a weak northern stream trof moving out of the Northern Rockies, with large scale ridge building into the western CONUS. At the surface, trof is tracking across the western Dakotas. Temps will continue to warm through the weekend as western CONUS ridge nudge eastward and trof digs into the far western states. Winds will be breezy both days, especially on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions the main forecast concerns. Strong front sweeps through late Sunday/Sunday night as splitting trof crosses the Rockies.
201 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A low pressure system brings showers through Sunday. Briefly cooler weather this weekend.
A cold front is currently pushing through the area and based on SFC/Satellite observations it is near the I-65 corridor and moving eastward as of 02z. A low pressure system sliding from MO toward the Great Lakes today and tonight is bringing a cold front through the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s as the front works eastward, and then tomorrow will be cooler with MaxT's in the mid to upper 60s.
1224 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Rain chances will linger through the weekend with crossing low pressure. There will be a relative lull in shower activity overnight before coverage begins to increase later in the morning with another round of positive vorticity advection and jet- induced ascent associated with an upper low transition over the Great Lakes provides support. Cold advection and upslope will support lingering rain/snow showers into early Sunday, but remaining precip will gradually diminish through the morning with building high pressure. Long range model ensembles indicate a slightly above climatological normal temperature trend, the potential for robust low pressure system mid- week with seasonable temperature. Restrictions and rain are likely again with midweek low pressure.
209 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will shift northeast through the region tonight as low pressure approaches the area. This low will track through the Great Lakes Saturday offering lingering showers.
243 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Midlands Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A zonal 500 mb flow will persist over the BRO CWFA, while at the surface, high pressure dominates.
116 AM PDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Precipitation associated with a low pressure system will overspread Central California late this morning through this afternoon.
207 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Rain chances will linger through the weekend with crossing low pressure. After a relative lull in shower activity early this morning, coverage will increase as another round of positive vorticity advection and jet- induced ascent associated with an upper low transitioning over the Great Lakes provides support. Cold advection and upslope will support lingering rain/snow showers into early Sunday, but remaining precip will gradually diminish through the morning with building high pressure. Long range model ensembles indicate a slightly above climatological normal temperature trend, the potential for robust low pressure system mid- week with seasonable temperature. Restrictions and rain are likely again with midweek low pressure.
239 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Low-end severe potential from last evening now done, as contributing cold front now well east. An upper jet however continues to dig the trailing upper trough which won't swing across the mid-state until late tonight. We will also see a weak SFC/LL trough axis move by early this afternoon. As for the north and east today, there is likely to be healthily cloud-cover with patchy sprinkles/drizzle, especially as this weak trough axis approaches. By 12z Tue, we have a weak warm front lifting across the region which will be very close to TN/KY border around midday. This warm front will proceed north into the OH valley, then a series of SFC/LL boundaries will pass on Wed and again Thu.
MVFR CIGs will remain possible tonight, especially over Cntrl/Nrn/Ern terminals, expect CIGs to lift overnight and especially for Sat as high pressure moves into the region. expect CIGs to lift overnight and especially for Sat as high pressure moves into the region. Tonight Through Sunday An upper level trof was pushing to the east, and a surface trof was dragging thru the area well behind the front that pushed thru yesterday. The trof was producing a bit of residual light precip across the east-central portions of the area, otherwise most of the precip had exited the state. The area will remain under a broad trof aloft during the short term, and a return flow will set up by late tomorrow night.
335 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A line of weakening showers is moving across Eastern Kentucky early this morning along an occluded front associated with low pressure over northern portions of the OH valley. Cooler temps today, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 50s across the I-64 and I-75 corridors, to mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Afternoon high temps in the lower 60s. Upper level height rises will start out the extended as ridging nudges in from the Lower Mississippi Valley and up through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will be planted across the Tennessee Valley, contributing to a southerly shift in winds and the advection of warmer air across the area.
230 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 As low pressure departs to our northeast, rain showers will continue across central Illinois this morning, before diminishing from west to east.
Warmer with Fire Weather Concerns this weekend: A rapid warm up is anticipated this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the Plains. With the warmer conditions and well mixed boundary layer, fire weather conditions will be a concern.
300 AM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Weak ridging today will bring another very mild day to the state, with lower elevations reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Then the next winter storm arrives across the state as a longwave trough and associated cold front sweep through. The proximity of the trough and midlevel instability will bring the peak of the western mountain snowfall between 6am and noon Sunday. Sunday afternoon, the sfc cold front will also sweep southward, bringing colder sfc temps. As the front and trough move into central WY, the lower elevations will start out as rain, before switching over to snow once the front passes.
357 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 An upper low and associated fronts were over the region and accompanied by showers and a few storms.
315 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A line of weakening showers is moving across Eastern Kentucky early this morning along an occluded front associated with low pressure over northern portions of the OH valley. Cooler temps today, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 50s across the I-64 and I-75 corridors, to mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Afternoon high temps in the lower 60s. A ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky to being the extended.
Ridging has built back in and has eliminated any chance for rainfall.
Little if any snow accumulation is expected as this trough passes overhead. There are patchy high clouds ahead of the wave, but for the most part it is mostly sunny allowing for highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Those clouds will clear the area tonight as a ridge builds back in from the west. The ridge continues to build in tomorrow therefore high temperatures will increase by 5 to 10 degrees. Southwest flow will continue to increase across eastern Utah and western Colorado on Sunday as the Pacific trough approaches from the west. Latest guidance is continuing to favor a split solution as this system reaches the Western Slope with a closed low emerging near the Four Corners region Sunday night.
Overall large scale flow consists of a low amplitude ridge over the western CONUS with a deep trough to the east.
449 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A low pressure system brings showers through Sunday. Briefly cooler weather this weekend.
High pressure settling over the state will help to keep winds generally light and skies mostly clear.
By sunset tomorrow, with high pressure over the region, winds will become calm to light/variable. /issued 953 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/ Strong post-frontal winds will continue to wane below 10 mph overnight as the closed low over northern Missouri gradually shifts to the northeast. Drier air will wrap around the periphery of the closed low, allowing minimum temperatures to fall below normal.
Temps have not fallen off as fast this evening as winds from the southwest have also not dies off as a cold front approaches from the west.
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Breezy and warm today ahead of an approaching cold front with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
Tonight, winds will turn to the south as ridging moves overhead, so overnight lows should end up 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Sunday is set up to be a very warm day, largely thanks to strong southerly winds (gusts 30-40 MPH) ahead of an approaching trough.
528 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 As low pressure departs to our northeast, rain showers will continue across central Illinois this morning, before diminishing from west to east.
440 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low lifting into the Great Lakes this morning. Clouds and breezy conditions persisted over the Midsouth this morning, in proximity to a weaker secondary upper low over the lower Ohio River valley. This low will lift further away from the Midsouth today, resulting in a dissipation of clouds and weakening low level pressure gradient. An upper level ridge will build into the Midsouth by late Sunday, downstream from a deepening southern branch longwave trof over the 4-corners region.
/issued 440 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/ GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low lifting into the Great Lakes this morning. Clouds and breezy conditions persisted over the Midsouth this morning, in proximity to a weaker secondary upper low over the lower Ohio River valley. This low will lift further away from the Midsouth today, resulting in a dissipation of clouds and weakening low level pressure gradient. An upper level ridge will build into the Midsouth by late Sunday, downstream from a deepening southern branch longwave trof over the 4-corners region.
418 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Low pressure centered over northern Indiana this morning will continue to move northeast today.
525 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Key Messages: - Mild, dry weather returns for the weekend, with Sunday the warmer weekend day.
The center of high pressure will pass S of the state, resulting in Wrly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Aloft, upper level ridging will be centered over the region with a new trough digging in over the Four Corners region. At the surface, high pressure will slide the E, commencing return flow over the lower MS Valley. By Sunday night, the vigorous upper trough will eject out of the Srn Rockies and into the Srn Plains.
This is due to the light snowfall rates and temperatures hovering right around freezing. Winds will quickly diminish this evening as high pressure moves into the area.
A warmer solution is favored for most locations today. As the aforementioned ridge slides off to the east Sunday, expect strong WAA over the forecast area before the next trough begins nosing into the area at the end of the period.
An expansive ridge centered over the western Atlantic continues to build into the area, resulting in mostly sunny skies and light to gentle southeast breezes.
945 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Breezy and warm today ahead of an approaching cold front with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
603 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer and dry conditions for the weekend.
Low-end severe potential from last evening now done, as contributing cold front now well east. An upper jet however continues to dig the trailing upper trough which won't swing across the mid-state until late tonight. We will also see a weak SFC/LL trough axis move by early this afternoon. As for the north and east today, there is likely to be healthily cloud-cover with patchy sprinkles/drizzle, especially as this weak trough axis approaches. By 12z Tue, we have a weak warm front lifting across the region which will be very close to TN/KY border around midday. This warm front will proceed north into the OH valley, then a series of SFC/LL boundaries will pass on Wed and again Thu.
/issued 335 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A zonal 500 mb flow will persist over the BRO CWFA, while at the surface, high pressure dominates.
654 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Showers will persist today into tonight as upper level low pressure tracks through the area.
604 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Light and variable winds are anticipated today as the mid/upper ridge builds eastward across the area. Southerly winds will ramp up on Sunday as low pressure deepens across the high plains of eastern Colorado resulting in a tightening pressure gradient downstream across the Central Plains.
1037 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Showers will persist today into tonight as upper level low pressure tracks through the area.
Clear skies remain in the east early this morning with some localized reports of fog(mainly in western MN), while partly to mostly cloudy skies are drifting into our western zones out ahead of a sfc cold front sliding southeast out of ND. The fog could become a little more pronounced going through the remainder of the early morning hours across our far eastern zones, but should be gone by mid morning as this cold front pushes through. This front along with a weak low pressure system anchored on the front should clear our CWA by early/mid afternoon. Not much in the way of a cooler air mass will filter in here however, so expecting a mild day.
645 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 An upper low and associated fronts were over the region and accompanied by showers and a few storms.
Light SFC winds are forecast as high pressure builds in from the west.
/Issued 451 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022/ 88D showing light precip falling across the far northern portions of the CWA this morning just along a cold front. By this afternoon the only PoP chances should be over the very far SE portions of the FA where moisture continues to be drawn up ahead of the front and on the backside of the departing low pressure system.
523 AM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Weak ridging today will bring another very mild day to the state, with lower elevations reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Then the next winter storm arrives across the state as a longwave trough and associated cold front sweep through. The proximity of the trough and midlevel instability will bring the peak of the western mountain snowfall between 6am and noon Sunday. Sunday afternoon, the sfc cold front will also sweep southward, bringing colder sfc temps. As the front and trough move into central WY, the lower elevations will start out as rain, before switching over to snow once the front passes.
SKC will result in VFR conds today as high pressure moves into the state. The center of high pressure will pass S of the state, resulting in Wrly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Aloft, upper level ridging will be centered over the region with a new trough digging in over the Four Corners region. At the surface, high pressure will slide the E, commencing return flow over the lower MS Valley. By Sunday night, the vigorous upper trough will eject out of the Srn Rockies and into the Srn Plains.
649 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Low pressure centered over northern Indiana this morning will continue to move northeast today.
1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer and dry conditions for the weekend.
As for temperatures on Sunday, inherited rather warm temperatures for the forecast, but did lower a tad and trend towards the cooler models, the main reason is the potential for cirrus clouds to develop during the peak daytime heating.
328 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Discussion/Marine - Drizzle/light rain ending this evening The low pressure system over Lake Huron will track off to the east this evening. Also the low level convergence weakens.
Today will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Cold front is moving across the area this morning with low clouds forecast to move in from the west this morning. Westerly winds will be gusty at times this afternoon in the wake of the eastward moving cold front. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 38 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 39 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 38 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 39 59 35 69 / 20 10 0 0 0.
Sunday night will see winds stay up and increasing clouds both of which will help temps stay above freezing aiding the snow melt and runoff process.