Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level closed low will move southeast today from Iowa into Missouri/Illinois. A vort max wrapping around behind this low will sweep through Southwest Kansas through morning and midday. Therefore went ahead and moved the High Wind Warning up to start at 7am to cover our northern counties. This will cause surface wind to flow from the northwest at 35-45 mph, with gusts to 60 mph, with the highest winds late this morning and early afternoon. This evening, the aforementioned upper low will move west. This will allow the surface pressure gradient to decrease and for high pressure to move in.
High pressure will bring lighter winds into the forecast area today.
Dry weather and a significant warming trend will continue through midweek as high pressure remains in control. High pressure will continue to build over Central California through Wednesday. Through at least tomorrow, expect warmer than average temperatures with mostly clear skies, although high clouds will pass over the region at times. This morning will be relatively cool once again, at least in the San Joaquin Valley, as temperatures are around the same to slightly warmer than at this time yesterday morning. Some patches of shallow fog are possible in mainly the lower lying areas of the Central Valley during this morning towards sunrise.
At the surface, high pressure is over the western Atlantic Ocean with an area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary over the southeast. A cold front will then move into the region tonight, with showers and MVFR or locally lower cigs/vsbys possible through mid morning. A cold front then will move through the waters tonight, with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms.
Winds will subside tonight as a cold front moves in from the north. A reinforcing shot of cool and dry air will arrive late this evening and overnight as high pressure moving south from Canada into the northern Rockies drives another cold front into the state. Winds will remain elevated somewhat though so widespread freezing temperatures are not forecast. Expect to see a roughly 10-12 degree drop in highs tomorrow versus today thanks to the incoming cold front this evening though, and with winds falling nearly calm tomorrow night widespread freezing temperatures do seem likely.
An upper level ridge will nose into the forecast area on Sunday and with warm advection and plenty of sunshine, the temperatures will be warmer. A cold front will move into the forecast area Sunday night.
135 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Low pressure is centered over central and eastern KY early this moring as extensive low and mid-level wrap-around moisture continues to rotate through Middle Tennessee. Thus, generally light precipitation will persist through the morning and even into the afternoon across the Upper Plateau before a strong upper trough finally pulls everything east of Middle Tennessee.
Strong upper anticyclone centered in NE Nevada will build eastward today, with 500 mb heights climbing to near 592 dm. With ridging aloft and a weak pressure gradient, winds will be light, averaging from the NE at 10 mph or less. Clear, light and variable winds, with lows Sunday morning mainly in the lower 60s. Sprawling upper ridge over the Great Basin and Rockies will continue to build onto the plains on Sunday, for a sunny, hot and dry afternoon. Max temps in the low to mid 90s with a light south wind. Ridging persists aloft, but more importantly, models continue to depict a strong 850 mb prefrontal thermal ridge across SW KS, with 850 mb temps as warm as 30C along the Colorado border.
357 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Upper ridge begins to build back eastward across Colorado today and tonight, leading to warmer and drier conditions across the region. Max temps today will begin to creep upward as heights build, and many locations will end up 2-4f warmer than yesterday. Upper ridge remains centered over the Great Basin with northerly flow aloft over the region.
423 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Today will be mainly dry and cool with high pressure over the region this morning. Rain, associated with the remnants of Harvey and a passing cold front, will be across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday.
308 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A modest upper level short wave trough moving southward through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles is supporting some showers across the eastern Texas Panhandle. However, the supporting upper trough will move southward over the forecast area today some of the models are developing some QPF from the Rolling Plains into the Big Country.
330 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak upper level trough axis was located across northern MO and extended southwest across eastern KS into western OK early this morning. As the weak H5 troughs shifts southeast into MO and OK, skies should clear through the mid morning hours. Expect mostly sunny skies by afternoon and warmer temperatures as the broad upper ridge located across the western US builds an upper ridge axis eastward across western KS. A weak cold front will push southeast into the northeast counties of the CWA late in the afternoon.
Durg holiday weekend, only carrying isold aftn convection across mainly western portions of cwa, where a very weak upper low may exist over central/east TX. Deep upper trof will bring northerly flow aloft back into area, bringing first cold front of season into area quickly on Tue.
Hot and dry weather continues with high pressure overhead.
These storms are in response to a broad trough that is relatively stationary across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and have marched eastward towards the island chain. On the synoptic scale, the trough situated across the Florida Peninsula and through the eastern gulf will generally be stationary.
/issued 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017/ A weak upper level trough across the southern plains will continue to move south today and tonight into central Texas. This trough will combine with a weak boundary residing across the northern Permian Basin and extreme western Low Rolling Plains to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across eastern sections of west Texas. Convection chances Sunday will shift to the southeast Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend as the upper system tracks toward the Big Bend.
A short wave trough will move out of the Texas panhandle into northwest Texas today and then drift to the southwest over the Edwards Plateau on Sunday. But the low levels of the atmosphere will remain too dry for precipitation chances to be high enough to warrant mentioning in the forecast for Sunday.
Model data for water vapor imagery and 500 mb height field shows that the western CONUS strong ridge of high pressure will re- assert itself today and tomorrow. Main forecast challenge is the strength of the cold front expected on Sunday with colder air advection re-enforcing behind the front later Sunday night. Tried to lean toward the higher side of these wind speeds.
437 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Today will be mainly dry and cool with high pressure over the region this morning. Rain, associated with the remnants of Harvey and a passing cold front, will be across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday.
Ridging building over the Northern Rockies will bring another hot and dry day to the area with high temperatures in the 90s expected for most places.
1024 mb high pressure over southeast Canada and ridging sw over nw parts of IL/MO will be near CWA today and provide a fair amount of sunshine. Air mass is quite dry over central IL as upper level trof over upper MS river valley digs into the western Great Lakes by this evening.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night): With the deeper H5 trough departing to the east coast, Deep South Texas will remain in variable midlevel flow, between ridges and troughs. That said, a mid level short wave trough will dig south over the southern High Plains tonight and will shear out as a weak upper low over east Texas by Sunday, eventually shifting east with little impact to the local area.
326 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Upper trough expected to continue southward progress over the region today and tonight. As has been forecast the past several days, western portion of the trough axis expected to cutoff over southwest portions of Oklahoma and sink slowly southward into southwest Texas over the next 48 or so. This will help to slow southward progress of trough late this morning through this afternoon.
slightly warmer conditions will be seen. with highs across the CWA in the low 80s to low 90s.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough east of Texas and a ridge to the west with northwesterly flow across the state. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Central Texas and winds across our CWA were light and variable. Northwesterly upper flow will continue today, but another trough will develop over Oklahoma and swing southward tonight and Sunday.
503 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 High pressure will cross the region today through tonight. Low pressure will cross the region Sunday night.
Though surface dewpoints didn't fall as substantially, there was a more marked decrease in deep layer moisture particularly in the low/mid levels. High res guidance hints at very isolated showers this afternoon over the SW part of the area, where slightly higher dewpoints are expected to exist, but given the dearth of moisture through the lower portion of the column, that solution seems unlikely and no rain was included in the forecast.
Strong high pressure aloft will prevail through this Labor Day weekend for above normal temperatures. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region through this Labor Day weekend for above normal temps. Expect further strengthening of the ridge on Labor Day, with 500 mb heights anticipated to be over 590 dam over the entire CWA.
Satellite imagery early this morning shows an amplified pattern in place across the Nation with a significant ridge in place across the western CONUS, inducing a northwest flow down stream across the Plains States. For today, surface winds will generally swing to the south to southwest today as the ridge to our west begins to expand east across the Plains.
After today, significant upper-lvl ridging will build into the CWA with warm/dry conditions likely to prevail through Sunday.
High pressure and drier Sunday through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal per cloudiness and cooling showers expected. High pressure and ridging start to build into the region on Sunday and will persist through the remainder of Labor Day Weekend.
Away from direct marine influences, temperatures generally were in the lower and middle 70s at 230 am CDT.
High pressure is set up to the northeast, but is fairly weak at this time. Through the day today, the low that was once Harvey, will continue to weaken and be absorbed into an upper level trough exiting the US to the northeast. As it does, the high pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic. After today, this high should keep a generally easterly flow across the region through at least the middle of the week. By the end of the week, a strong trough will push a cold front into the southeast United States. As it does, Irma is forecast to make its way westward, possibly interacting with the trough. However, there is a great amount of uncertainty as to the strength of the trough, and what track Irma may take.
Strong ridge of high pressure building over the West Coast today will allow for excessive heat across the San Joaquin Valley. The center of the high pressure, which is currently over the Great Basin, will shift southeasterly toward the four corners area in the next 24 hours.
648 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Today will be mainly dry and cool with high pressure over the region this morning. Rain, associated with the remnants of Harvey and a passing cold front, will be across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday.
southerly winds and clearing conditions are forecast as a ridge of high pressure out over the Western part of the CONUS begins to build eastward.
Rua Overall weather pattern remains favorable for recovery efforts as weak ridge in the aftermath of Harvey maintains a mean northerly flow that will keep Gulf moisture trapped far to the south. By Labor Day, weak ridge moves off to the east, and low pressure forms out to the west as short wave begins to move down from the plains.
Strong upper anticyclone centered in NE Nevada will build eastward today, with 500 mb heights climbing to near 592 dm. With ridging aloft and a weak pressure gradient, winds will be light, averaging from the NE at 10 mph or less. Clear, light and variable winds, with lows Sunday morning mainly in the lower 60s.
1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Weak high pressure will move southeast across the area tonight.
Widespread light to moderate rain is still ongoing on the backside of the low where a deformation band has persisted. Temperatures will be cool as skies clear and winds remain light at the surface, with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 50s. High pressure in eastern Tennessee will generally keep surface flow light out of the west.
420 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Latest upper level analysis places 594 dam ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin slowly shifting eastward while the remnants of Harvey pushes over Kentucky. This dry trend will continue over the next several days as high pressure aloft strengthens and shifts over the Four Corners region.
352 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area today. A cold front will move through from the west tonight.
Upper level ridging will remain over the Rockies for this period with warmer low-level air expanding westward across Nebraska and Kansas.
High pressure over the Pacific Northwest will continue the trend of warm and dry conditions through Sunday.
345 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 No clouds can be seen on the IR satellite this morning thanks to high pressure centered over northern Nevada and southern Oregon and Idaho. The center of high pressure will broaden some over the next few days and shift to the east a bit but the general gist is the same. The broad area of high pressure will have moved enough to encompass our CWA keeping large scale subsidence over the region. What has become a quasi-permanent high pressure system centered over the Great Basin over the past week or more will persist through the extended periods this week.
In the upper levels a trough is over the Southeast and a ridge extends from Bermuda to South Florida. A weak cold front extends through Georgia and Alabama.
The Northland was between high pressure off to the east with a trough of low pressure and frontal boundaries over the Northern Plains into Manitoba this afternoon. Additional development will be possible during the day with steep lapse rates over far northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin combined with the upper trough. Clouds will keep temperatures warmer tonight for most areas with lows from the upper forties across Price/southern Iron Counties.
Lows will be in the low 40s over the interior W to the low 50s elsewhere. This would favor a round of showers and thunderstorms moving through late Sun night/early Mon with the fropa mainly over the northern tier counties, and a more optimistic Labor Day fcst with a limited risk of more shower development in the wake of the cold front. With mid-upper level trough amplifying thru the Great Lakes, much cooler/fall conditions will follow Tue under nw to n winds/mostly cloudy skies and isolated/scattered showers. Models finally trend toward drier and warmer conditions on Fri as the mid-level trough shifts e and heights rise.
Some models are even a little cooler than than the forecast, so something to consider if it looks like the sun will take the whole day off.
The cold front associated with this system was just clearing Fargo/Baudette at 3 am and will be working across western WI this afternoon. Boundary Layer dewpoints from the NAM show potential for dewpoints falling off into the low 40s this afternoon in western MN. Beside the lower dewpoints, winds will likely be a bit stronger than what guidance suggests. Given the expected dry dewpoints by the afternoon, we should have efficient radiational cooling, so followed the national blend of models in knocking a couple of degrees off the lows for tonight from the previous forecast. By Sunday afternoon, models depict a cold front just to the northwest of the forecast area. This places us in the thermal ridge during peak heating, with decent mixing indicating a good potential for overachieving on high temperatures.
Temperatures will be similar tonight with weak ridging and light/ near calm winds. A strong upper ridge is in place over the Western US with troughing in the Eastern US. The base of the trough stretches southward into the Central Appalachians; therefore keeping the the upper level trough axis to our east-northeast, putting us in an zone of northwesterly flow aloft and upper-level convergence.
This afternoon into the evening, a stronger wave near the Canadian border will push east southeast driving a weak cold front into at least northwest Iowa this morning then into southeast Iowa by evening.
337 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Closed low-mid level circulation defining the remnants of Harvey now centered over central Kentucky. This system remains forecast to steadily lift northeast into southern Ohio today, before merging into an inbound northern stream trough expected to lift through the region tonight. Greater prospects for unfiltered sunshine with northwest extent, increasing the probability for warmer readings to focus over the Tri-cities. This timing and positioning will keep the primary tropical moisture plume east of the region as the trailing trough pivots through. A period of modest forcing tied to the wave and associated low level trough axis will maintain a low probability for shower development overnight, but the best potential will reside to the east. Trough axis pulls east Sunday morning, with an aggressive recovery in the upper height field commencing through the day.
309 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak upper level trough across the southern plains will continue to move south today and tonight into central Texas. This trough will combine with a weak boundary residing across the northern Permian Basin and extreme western Low Rolling Plains to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across eastern sections of west Texas. Convection chances Sunday will shift to the southeast Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend as the upper system tracks toward the Big Bend.
Lidia is already pushing into cooler waters on the western coast of Baja, and should rapidly weaken to a depression off the northern and central coast of Baja CA over the next 24 hours. NHC forecast looks spot-on with a turn to the west under the dominant ridge early in the new week.
351 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Warm and Dry today and tonight with light winds as high pressure tracks southeast across the forecast area. this will bring warmer southwest flow into western and central ND tonight, thus a mild night is in store with readings in the 50s to lower 60s. Hot and Breezy on Sunday, then much cooler Labor Day through mid week. We also utilized a consensus of MOS based guidance for winds, which is on the high side of the all guidance.
The good part for today is that we will be quite mild with afternoon highs mostly in the 80s except in the lower elevations of the North Platte River valley where highs will reach the 90s. As this feature scoots across, it will bring much warmer temperatures especially for areas east of the Laramie Range due to good downslope flow. The weather pattern through the extended will be dominated by an amplified upper ridge over the western US with deep troughing over the Great Plains and eastern US.
A few locations west of the Missouri River could see the low 90s. Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday. This is when an area of low pressure passing northeast of the region will draw warm temperatures off the Northern Rockies.
Hi res models keep the most intense activity over and near the mountains south of Highway 50 this evening with the potential for some development eastward along the Raton Ridge out toward Kansas a later on. Saturday looks pretty dry as a big ridge of high pressure noses down over the region, effectively squelching most of the thunderstorm activity.
404 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 06Z surface data showed high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front ran from northwest Minnesota into South Dakota. The rain is moving into the drier air of the high so a gradual dissipation is expected.
Thereafter, large ridge will build across the western states resulting in continued warm temperatures and daily low grade thunderstorm activity.
As high pressure aloft moves from the west into the southern Rockies, the flow aloft over West Central Texas will shift from northwest to more north.
By tonight, weak cold front to move into region and slide south across area. Period begins with a weak fnt exiting the CWA and the 850mb thermal ridge building into the area. With swly winds increasing, especially on Mon ahead of the approaching cdfnt, have trended aoa the warmer guidance thru Mon. Behind this fnt, a much cooler airmass will move into the region. With the cold airmass in place and the upper trof digging into the region, mention of SHRA may need to be added for Wed afternoon. Otherwise, have trended aob the cooler guidance thru the remainder of the forecast period. A weak surface trof/wind shift will enter northern MO and west central IL on Saturday evening with the possibility of spotty showers. This ridge will slowly move east on Saturday.
257 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 An upper level ridge will intensify over the western U. The center of the ridge will be over Utah by this evening. There will be a slight chance for a few weak showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Continued dry and warm conditions for the region as a large upper ridge remains entrenched over the northern portions of the Great Basin. RH values will bottom out in the lower teens Sunday afternoon with close to zero storm possibility.
Even warmer conditions anticipated for Labor Day with a chance of showers and storms late in the day as a cold front swings through the region.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies this weekend causing warm and dry conditions once again. This evening a subtle feature will move across the region increasing the winds in the higher terrain and pushing in an even drier airmass.
524 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 The remnant low pressure system left by Harvey was located near Frankfort early this morning, and was still causing light precip in the region. The low is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast and becomes absorbed by the westerlies today, merging with a an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. Have used a compromise with at least likely POP area wide, and the highest values in the morning. It may come down to whether the pressure gradient is strong enough to mix out the low level moisture as drier air aloft moves in tonight.
Overall forecast on track with dry conditions with cooler lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
700 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area today. A cold front will move through from the west tonight.
Otherwise, drier and warmer air will move in tonight and Saturday under a building upper ridge.
/issued 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017/ A modest upper level short wave trough moving southward through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles is supporting some showers across the eastern Texas Panhandle. However, the supporting upper trough will move southward over the forecast area today some of the models are developing some QPF from the Rolling Plains into the Big Country.