Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A pseudo warm front was laid out across central Missouri, where some dew point pooling was occurring. For tonight, look for ideal outdoor weather with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Saturday's weather will be very similar to today, but maybe a couple of degrees warmer with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. A summertime high pressure system will continue to gradually strengthen over the central and southern Plains.
The highest PoPs are over our coastal counties east of Mobile Bay for Saturday afternoon. Below seasonal temperatures northwest are expected, with this area seeing more influx of cooler air behind the frontal passage mid week.
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Sprawling Canadian high pressure takes over for the weekend with mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures.
/Today/ With high pressure dominating our weather pattern both at the sfc and aloft, the ongoing fcst is well on track. /issued 617 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020/ Under the influence of both a surface and upper-level ridge of high pressure, VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the terminal forecast period ending 13/12Z. /Today through Saturday/ Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail through the short-term period ending Saturday afternoon. With the exception of thin passing cirrus, upper-ridge will maintain mostly clear skies areawide.
Surface ridging remains across the area tonight with a clear sky and dry air. High pressure and N/NW upper flow remains across the area on Saturday with a mostly clear sky and dry conditions.
An upper ridge will continue to build over the state to bring another day of warming temperatures. 700mb readings increase by around 3 degrees C, which should bring the highs into the upper 80s to low 90s over the plains, and into the 60s and 70s in the higher terrain. Warm advection, deepening surface lee trough and some partly cloudy skies overnight will result in warmer overnight temperatures.
Model guidance is cooler tomorrow. We're showing a little cooling over the mountains but warmer over the eastern parts of the plains and that looks fine, so we'll stick with what we've got planning on it getting near 90 in Denver before it clouds up.
A backdoor cold front currently tracking into northeast Illinois should clear the far southwest portions of the CWA by mid-evening. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max on the southwest fringes of broad troughing centered over southern Quebec is slowly moving south across Wisconsin this afternoon. Showers may focus into a narrow corridor with higher coverage as the better mid-level moisture aloft starts to align with better Fgen forcing in the low-levels, with an overlap of the two in the 700-800 hPa layer. Max temps will struggle to rise much above 60 along the Lake Michigan shore, remain below 70 in the Chicago metro for all but the far southwest suburbs, and reach only the low 70s across the southern CWA.
A low pressure system moving across the western states will produce strong and gusty afternoon winds the remainder of today and on Saturday.
1249 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 VFR/SKC conditions under high pressure aloft and at the sfc will continue through the 18Z TAF cycle. /Today/ With high pressure dominating our weather pattern both at the sfc and aloft, the ongoing fcst is well on track. /Today through Saturday/ Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail through the short-term period ending Saturday afternoon. With the exception of thin passing cirrus, upper-ridge will maintain mostly clear skies areawide.
1208 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An upper level ridge will continue to build into the High Plains region Friday, with a trof across the eastern CONUS and a strong upper level trof across the western CONUS. Dry conditions will be expected for Friday as the upper level high pressure moves in limiting moisture to the area. The upper level high will be centered over the High Plains on Saturday. However, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low despite the high winds and low RH as recent rainfall should keep the fuels green.
A cold front will push through the area by late Friday night setting the stage for a much cooler and wetter weather pattern. /Pelatti 12Z: Moisture and instability being drawn into the region ahead of an approaching trough will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period. A cold front will slowly work west to east through the region Friday night with additional showers and some weaker thunderstorms.
High pressure to our west continues to generate northeasterly winds along the pressure gradient across our region. Short term model consensus suggests that moderately strong north- northwest flow aloft will persist across the region for much of the weekend, as the mid-level ridge to our west weakens and retreats into northern Mexico while an amplifying longwave trough develops across eastern North America. At the surface, the high centered over the Ozarks today will weaken considerably by this evening, with a relaxing pressure gradient more supportive of radiational cooling across the TN Valley. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Saturday night, as both low-level moisture and high-level cloud cover slowly increase ahead of a pronounced mid-level vort max dropping southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the base of the amplifying longwave trough over the Eastern Seaboard.
Otherwise, east-northeast low-level flow will favor some late afternoon convection moving off of Cape Sable and out across the Gulfside waters, possibly clipping the Lower Keys.
A long wave trough that is nearly sheared is poised off the US west coast this morning. The trough will hang together, barely. The nearly sheared low will move onshore this evening and the residual trough will move onshore Saturday morning. As the upper trough shifts east the area of greatest instability will shift eastward as well to the east side late in the afternoon into the evening. Short waves moving down the backside of the trough will keep shower activity going into Saturday evening.
1112 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Upper ridge axis has slide eastward, into the High Plains. Warm air advection continues early this morning, which will result in temps 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Many locations across the northeast WY and western SD plains will reach into the low 90s. Southerly flow increases heading into Saturday, as low pressure deepens across eastern MT to central WY. With upper flow becoming more southwesterly ahead of the approaching trough, there may be some marginal upper level support.
Low pressure on the boundary is aiding in convection across the area south and east of Macon. This will provide for chances of thunderstorms throughout the week across the CWA, with higher chances to the east where better moisture and forcing will reside, though any vorticity maxima which rotate around the trough will provide for forcing for ascent across the entire area. The cut-off low will help to keep southerly flow from returning to the area too quickly. This is expected to prevent moisture from returning too quickly as well, with forecast dewpoints in the low 60s and even some 50s(!) to the north. For this package, I've gone with mostly the model blend as everyone seems to be getting along in terms of placement of large scale features, with some minor differences in placement of the cut-off low.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Nly flow aloft between the upper ridge axis over W TX and an upper trof axis over the ern CONUS continues over our region. Meanwhile, high pressure continues to hold at the sfc. Ridge axis to be squeezed newd a bit through Saturday, effectively serving to hold steady its influence on our weather.
211 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east and amplify as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. This will allow slight chances for showers and TS to return as the ridge shifts east and semi-unsettled SW flow spreads into the region. Lee side trough will shift east INVOF NE WY and far western SD Sat afternoon, with late afternoon and eve sct showers and TS expected as a weak impulse shifts NE.
Isolated marine showers will be possible, with a few of them potentially making it across the coast and onto the land portion of the CWA on Saturday as the ridge aloft weakens slightly. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
CAMS mostly dry with upper ridging aloft, however NAM BUFKIT profiles show some instability and cant rule out weak convective activity this afternoon. The period starts out with high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
Pleasant weather is expected for the weekend after the passage of a cold front tonight. A weak low pressure system may bring some light rain to the southwestern counties Saturday night with dry conditions otherwise through the weekend. Northwesterly flow will continue across central Indiana tonight as a weak upper level wave and associated surface cold front move through the area late tonight and early tomorrow. Fantastic weather this weekend with cooler than normal temperatures and much below average dew points.
1014 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Widespread cloud cover remains as a potent upper trough brings plentiful mid level moisture into the region.
116 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Dry and comfortable conditions are expected into the weekend under building high pressure. This trough is more substantial and latest guidance maintains continuity with previous runs in squeezing out some spotty light precipitation Saturday morning with the help of DPVA and some frontogenetical forcing along a tightening temperature gradient.
224 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Water vapor imagery and 500mb heights show the upper ridge building eastward. In the lower levels, there is weak boundary across northeastern KS, eastward across northern MO. The low- level jet will again focus to our southwest which may lead to some shower/thunderstorm development.
1137 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
The models indicate that it will tend to develop southward into our region by early evening, as the low-level moisture plume pushes south. Temperatures have trended warmer and are now expected to reach the upper 80s with dewpoints holding in the lower 60s over there.
VFR conditions prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky and generally good flight weather as high pressure remains across the area. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 88 63 88 61 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 86 60 84 59 / 0 0 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 85 60 84 58 / 0 0 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 82 56 79 55 / 0 10 20 50 30.
251 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Mid level ridging is providing another pleasant day across east Kentucky today with only some diurnally driven CU present across the region right now. A weak cold front dropping in from the north on Saturday, could produce a bit better afternoon CU.
358 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 High pressure building in from the southern plains will bring dry conditions this evening. Persistent synoptic pattern through the near term and into the short term is ridging in the Central Plains, with a trough over the Northeast states.
231 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
High pressure will then provide dry conditions for the rest of the day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cool night is expected tonight with high pressure over much of the Northland providing good radiational cooling. High pressure will remain on Saturday with dry conditions continuing. It will be a bit warmer but off lake winds will continue around Lake Superior. An upper level ridge will extend from the Southern Plains through the Northern Plains into Saskatchewan/Manitoba Saturday evening with high pressure at the surface firmly in control of the Northland's weather.
326 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A cold front will push south across the region tonight, resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend.
328 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Strong upper level ridging will continue to remain over the central Plains through Saturday. The upper level ridge begins to slide eastward and break down by Saturday afternoon.
Aloft, we continue to see ridging over the Plains and troughing over the Great Lakes, with the pattern becoming increasingly amplified during the period. Tomorrow will be another mostly sunny day, with high temperatures once again reaching into the lower to mid 80s. Overall upper pattern will involve a central CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trof.
A strong low pressure system push inland tonight bringing cooler temperatures along with breezy to occasionally windy conditions through Saturday. Strong low pressure just off the west coast will continue to push east this evening and into northern Nevada by Saturday morning. As the low moves inland this evening, we should see some showers and potential thunderstorms develop over the western slopes of the Sierra and along the crest. As the low continues to lift northeast winds will be a bit lower over much of the area Saturday, but gradients will remain tight enough over the eastern areas of the CWA to keep gusty winds going one more day.
159 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A strong upper ridge as well as the thermal ridge of about 15C are over the forecast area. The subsidence from this ridge will keep the area dry for the remainder of today and tonight. Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows an upper low/trough pulling into California. At the same time a stronger upper low is off the southern British Columbia Coast. A cold front will push into far western Wyoming by around 18Z Saturday, but remain stalled until Saturday night when it is expected to pull east across much of the forecast area.
Spectacular mid-June morning across Middle Tennessee with crystal clear skies and unusually low RH with dewpoints down into the low 50s and even upper 40s. VFR conditions as high pressure will dominate.
This thunderstorms activity, which will be more miss than hit, is associated with a weak short wave through moving through the ridge at this time. Ridging is expected to continue for the weekend which will keep the cloud cover and precipitation chances to a minimum. Metzger The extended range, like the last few days continues to show ridging. The ECMWF does not indicate this but continued ridging and hot temperatures however, the ECMWF seems to ignore the pattern flow leading up to the change.
Fair weather tonight awaiting the arrival of Canadian high pressure.
A reinforcing cold front in the NNW flow aloft will drop into the vicinity of SW VA toward dawn, but the very dry air in place will keep all areas mainly clear. VFR will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure controls the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians providing mostly clear skies and light and variable winds as seasonably cool and dry air remains in place. Surface ridging remains across the area tonight with a clear sky and dry air. High pressure and N/NW upper flow remains across the area on Saturday with a mostly clear sky and dry conditions.
Aloft, a weak disturbance is riding the eastern periphery of the ridge and moving into extreme SEMO at this hour. The high will be over the region into the weekend continuing the warm and dry weather.
Prior discussion below: Based on the evening upper air sounding, dry air in the lower levels continues to control the sensible weather. Mostly clear skies will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s in most places, with upper 50s in northeast portions of the forecast area. The latest guidance was slightly warmer, but with no air mass changes we are able to stick with a more persistence forecast with overnight lows similar to last night. Though a light breeze will still persist in many areas, with clear skies abounding and a dry atmosphere, lows dipping into the upper 50s are again not out of the question for the cooler spots in the NE of the CWA.
Temps will remain mild in the low to mid 70s for lows with scattered cloudiness.
656 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Dry and comfortable conditions are expected into the weekend under building high pressure. This trough is more substantial and latest guidance maintains continuity with previous runs in squeezing out some spotty light precipitation Saturday morning with the help of DPVA and some frontogenetical forcing along a tightening temperature gradient.
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A cold front will push south across the region tonight, resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend.
659 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Sprawling Canadian high pressure takes over for the weekend with mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures.
853 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A cold front will push south across the region tonight, resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend.
High resolution guidance continues to show additional showers and storm dropping southward in association with a weak trough of low pressure. High pressure will dominate the coastal waters for the next several days.
505 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east and amplify as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. This will allow slight chances for showers and TS to return as the ridge shifts east and semi-unsettled SW flow spreads into the region. Lee side trough will shift east INVOF NE WY and far western SD Sat afternoon, with late afternoon and eve sct showers and TS expected as a weak impulse shifts NE.
The broad troughing is due to a weak TUTT cell in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a southern stream trough pushing into the Gulf of Mexico. This may provide the needed confluence to get over the lower level warm and dry layer. Broad troughing across Keys waters, along with a ridge off to the northeast will result in light winds strengthening slightly through the overnight period.
628 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 This afternoon high pressure continues to build into the Northland with an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West. Saturday the upper level ridge shifts farther east into the Plains with a stronger pressure gradient beginning to build in from the west. Warmer temperatures will return to the area with highs in the upper 60s. The region will be slightly dry with relative humidities in the lower 30s.
609 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Water vapor imagery and 500mb heights show the upper ridge building eastward. In the lower levels, there is weak boundary across northeastern KS, eastward across northern MO. The low- level jet will again focus to our southwest which may lead to some shower/thunderstorm development.
432 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A strong upper ridge as well as the thermal ridge of about 15C are over the forecast area. The subsidence from this ridge will keep the area dry for the remainder of today and tonight. Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows an upper low/trough pulling into California. At the same time a stronger upper low is off the southern British Columbia Coast. A cold front will push into far western Wyoming by around 18Z Saturday, but remain stalled until Saturday night when it is expected to pull east across much of the forecast area.
815 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Strong upper level ridging will continue to remain over the central Plains through Saturday. The upper level ridge begins to slide eastward and break down by Saturday afternoon.
Temps beginning to drop into the 50s as sun sets across portions of northwest MN and should continue down into the low to mid 40s later tonight. Temps and dew points still seem on track to bottom out in the low 40s in the north to mid 50s in the south.
947 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 This afternoon high pressure continues to build into the Northland with an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West. Saturday the upper level ridge shifts farther east into the Plains with a stronger pressure gradient beginning to build in from the west. Warmer temperatures will return to the area with highs in the upper 60s. The region will be slightly dry with relative humidities in the lower 30s.
Though a light breeze will still persist in many areas, with clear skies abounding and a dry atmosphere, lows dipping into the upper 50s are again not out of the question for the cooler spots in the NE of the CWA.
Continued VFR with light winds through Saturday as surface ridging remains nearby. Dry air mass will remain over the region tonight through Saturday night with the mid to upper level ridge axis staying to the west.
646 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
Current temperatures range from the lower to middle 70s, with a few spots still hanging tight in the upper 70s. Morning lows will dip into the upper 50s in Srn Middle TN and in the lower 60s elsewhere. This may be one of our last shots of seeing some decent dry air advection for the Summer, so be sure to get out tonight (and this weekend) and enjoy it! Ridging and high pressure to our west continues to generate north- northeasterly winds which bring mild, dry continental air into the Tennessee Valley.
Then the gradient tightens once again Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the region. Thunderstorms will redevelop and become concentrated ahead of a cold front draped north to south across the Northern Rockies on Saturday. Temperatures will cool considerably behind the cold front, leaving low overcast skies and sporadic showers in its wake. By Saturday night, the cold front will clear much of the Northern Rockies, with snow levels dropping rapidly in its wake.
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
The cold front near the ID/OR border will move through southwest Idaho this evening. There are just isolated showers in southeast Oregon at this time, but the showers will expand across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho tonight as an upper low in northern California moves northeast through our region. Temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday. A cold front with gusty winds over east Oregon will move through southwest Idaho tonight into Saturday morning. Surface winds: variable or NW 5-15 kt, becoming W to NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30-45 kt due to cold front tonight into early Saturday.
1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Sprawling Canadian high pressure will take over for the weekend with mainly dry weather and cooler than average air.
Temps and dew points still seem on track to bottom out in the low 40s in the north to mid 50s in the south.
1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A cold front will push south across the region tonight, resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend.
Water vapor satellite this morning shows an upper level low over western Ontario that will drop down into the mean long wave trough over the Great Lakes today. While the low will pass off to the east of the area, the associated short wave trough will pass across Wisconsin. The threat for the showers should end during the early evening as the forcing moves pass with the upper level low and short wave trough moving off over the eastern Great Lakes.
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Dry and comfortable conditions are expected into the weekend under building high pressure. This trough is more substantial and latest guidance maintains continuity with previous runs in squeezing out some spotty light precipitation Saturday morning with the help of DPVA and some frontogenetical forcing along a tightening temperature gradient.
1146 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Water vapor imagery and 500mb heights show the upper ridge building eastward. In the lower levels, there is weak boundary across northeastern KS, eastward across northern MO. The low- level jet will again focus to our southwest which may lead to some shower/thunderstorm development.