Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
930 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AT 9 AM PDT. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DESERTS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CA THIS MORNING WILL BE SQUEEZED OFF TO THE SW THIS WEEK AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONTINENT. THE TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS REBUILD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS BACK NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE.
931 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
243 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO EXIT NE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD IN LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO ONGOING LAKE PRECIP. A LOOK AT UPSTREAM KMQT RADAR LOOP SHOWS ONLY ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS TO INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A LARGE AND RATHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AND GIVEN DOWN-LOW HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE SIMILAR OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. COLD FRONT SET TO ROLL THRU ON MON AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA TONIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
Low temperatures will be cooler tonight than the previous night, and around 5 degrees below normal.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY-EVENING.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) As of 08z Saturday, cold front extended from Chicago to St. Behind the front, skies to clear out with cooler and drier air making its way in. Despite more sunshine, highs will only be in the low to mid 70s.
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS. LEE TROF WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS.
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ITS GRIP TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. WHILE HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN LOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
342 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS OF 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY STATIONARY TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW TO BE SIMILAR TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTLE TROUGH DRAPED DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Warmer temperatures are likely tonight as a southeasterly upslope flow develops across western Kansas, helping to initiate warm air advection overnight, as well as raise surface dewpoints. Highs are expected well up into the 80s(F) across extreme southwest Kansas with the upper 70s(F) still possible in central and south central Kansas where a cooler air mass will be slower to erode.
WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. ALAMOSA AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE WL START BUILDING BACK OVR THE AREA. WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RIDGING FROM TX TO TN VALLEY WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM PUSHING SOUTH FASTER.
/ISSUED / LOOKS LIKE A QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE NOW BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. EXPECT A BREEZY NIGHT ON THE BUFFALO RIDGE. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER DAY. 850 MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LEE TROUGHING WILL SET UP LATER IN THE DAY. THE FIRST PART OF A TWO-PART COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON MON THAN IT WILL BE ON SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WINDSHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE UPPER TROF PASSING THROUGH THE STATE.
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HELD ON TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR NOW (MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER HIGHS NEAR 70F). RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS PD. THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED FM THE LAKES NEWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND WILL ERODE OUT QUICKLY W/MODERATING TEMPS BACK ABV NORMAL BY TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. VFR/DRY OTHERWISE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT-SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CLOSEST RAINS TO OUR AREA ARE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
Meanwhile at the surface, a cool ridge of high pressure was centered over the mid MO river valley.
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 Very quiet weather pattern now in place over the Lwr Missouri Valley as high pressure has firm control the weather pattern. albeit slightly warmer with high pressure slowly tracks off to our northeast allowing for a gradual return of southeasterly winds. Highs on Sunday should range into the lower to middle 70s across much of the area.
1222 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A cold front will continue to push southeast through the forecast area early this morning, clearing the southern reaches of the CWA by mid morning. That cold front is ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass into the region. Even with clearing skies today, temperatures look to only warm into the low to mid 70s. 15 With Canadian high pressure moving east across the lower Great Lakes tonight, temperatures shouldn't have any trouble falling into the low 50s for most. An amplifying upper level pattern will keep surface ridging entrenched across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for much of the coming week, with cool and dry easterly to southeasterly surface flow expected through the week.
521 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. A RIBBON OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S HAS MANAGED TO SNAKE UP JUST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE EVERY LAST DROP OF THAT INSTABILITY TO GET MUCH OF A WIND GUST THREAT OUT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRIES BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WISC TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT IS MUCH TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR ANY PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE IN IOWA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL KICK UP ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART.
239 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
309 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SFC RIDGING WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 1830Z. SOME CI WAS ALSO SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A TROF OVER EASTERN MT AND CENTRAL SD. THE SD TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE MT TROF REACHES THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. SFC RIDGING HOWEVER. THOSE SAME UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA CLOUD FREE. EXPECT A COOLER NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S. EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 50S W AND CENTRAL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR S /STRETCHING FROM IL TO W NY AT 18Z SUNDAY/. AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ACROSS N CENTRAL CANADA. SOME AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP PUSH UP LOWS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME TEN DEGREES FROM WHAT WAS REALIZED TODAY. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOW NO SATURATION FOR EVEN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE COOLER AIRMASS WAS LAGGING THE SURFACE FRONT BUT WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A VERY STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY.
549 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 156 PM CDT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS. THE LOW TEMPS I INHERITED LOOKED VERY GOOD SO ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HIGH SHIFTS NE OF THE REGION OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY EVENING. BUT IT WILL LEAD TO A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. JEE 156 PM CDT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO START THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
700 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WITH VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASING TREND OF THE LOW CLOUDS (3-5 KFT).
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS SWRD PUSH INTO THE REGION BUT IS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM LITTLE ROCK TO DE QUEEN TO MOUNT PLEASANT. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN HUGO TO THE MID 80S IN TEXARKANA. THE COOLER TEMPS ATTRIBUTED TO RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WEATHER A GOOD PART OF THIS COMING WEEK.
215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WAS PRODUCING A PICTURE PERFECT AUTUMN-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL TONIGHT. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BATCH OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. PLAN ON COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI.
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
300 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A cold front has passed completely through the forecast area today.
THAT IS DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SERN US ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ABOVE MENTIONED IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 Cold front from last night has moved well east of the area and high pressure is now slowly moving east through the plains and will influence the weather across central and southeast Illinois tonight and beyond. With high pressure, wind speeds will remain well below 10 mph. Temps will become quite cool tonight with CWA being on the cooler side of the ridge.
Surface cold front currently is bisecting the region. Temperatures this afternoon will continue to run in the low-mid 80s out in the east with temperatures in the lower 70s in the I-75 corridor. For tonight, cold front should continue to push off to the east and we should see drier air punch in from the northwest. Lows will cool into the lower 50s in the northwest with mid 50s in the central and east. High pressure will build into the region for Sunday resulting in mostly sunny skies with mostly clear skies expected for Sunday night.
WITH VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECREASING TREND OF THE LOW CLOUDS (3-5 KFT).
222 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting eastward across Nebraska and Kansas. A secondary push of cooler air was making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in winds from the north. This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to this prog as there is some better low level moisture across central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED DRY UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 29N 125W AND A BATCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CENTERED NEAR 21N 114W WHICH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BE PULLED NORTH. THE MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
324 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER HIGHS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED WITH QUICK SURFACE HEATING ONGOING THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. BUT WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT AND IF THIS OCCURS COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS NORTH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA BUILDING EASTWARD WITH TIME. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE FANTASTIC WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S SHOULD BE THE RESULT. I AM NOT INCLINED TO GO WARMER DUE TO THE WET GROUND.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WRN NE. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD EWD INTO IA AND MO BY THIS EVENING.
1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COLD FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH SOME SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD BEFORE SHUNTING EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TONIGHT/SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY 5-8F WARMER THAN TODAY.
HEIGHT RISES ON SUNDAY INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN WITH SUNNY SKIES BEING THE RULE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE SEEN ON SATURDAY.
A weak cold front will slowly move southward today and eventually stall across the Concho Valley and heartland this afternoon. /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Cooler temperatures and rain chances still look promising for the next 24 hours. A weak cold front, currently near a Lubbock to Wichita Falls line, will move south into the Concho valley before stalling this afternoon. Although surface cold air advection behind the front will be minimal, cloud cover and precipitation make cooler afternoon temperatures look likely today.
WILL SEE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE CASCADES BUT JUST LOOKING AT INCREASING WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
The cold front came thru KMAF at around 1515Z this morning, and has stalled over the lower Trans Pecos. Using the more consistent low-res models, as civic high pressure continues sinking south, civic flow should veer to easterly, further slowing the front or even retreating back north a bit overnight. This will enhance upslope flow over the higher terrain out west, where area radars indicate convection has been occurring all day. Therefore, we've concentrated highest chances there, on the assumption that the cold front will retreat slightly overnight.
TEMPS COOL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
435 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH DRY PLEASANT WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE. GENERALLY TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MORE VARIABLE AND COOLER METMOS GUIDANCE WHICH USUALLY CAPTURES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACTS BETTER.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW AS OF 1930Z ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S. CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND BLUEGRASS REGION. SOME STEEP RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD. SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST TO START THE WEEK WITH TEMPS ON THE RISE.
AND HAS MOVED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 4-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. 14 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO ALABAMA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
115 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA.
AT 17Z A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST WEST OF CKV TO JUST EAST OF MEM.
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD.
212 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 Cool/dry early Autumn weather is occurring today in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night. A more amplified upper level pattern will develop over the eastern half of the CONUS by midweek with a strong upper level ridge expected to build over the area. Various guidance solutions diverge by late in the week, but in general it still looks to be warmer than normal. We will continue to see VFR conditions at southwest MO airports through the next 24 hours as a cool and dry airmass spreads southward across the region behind a cold front that exited the region earlier today. Tomorrow morning winds will gradually shift to east/southeast as high pressure shifts eastward toward the Great Lakes and lee side trough develops over the central High Plains.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO EXIT NE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD IN LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO ONGOING LAKE PRECIP. A LOOK AT UPSTREAM KMQT RADAR LOOP SHOWS ONLY ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS TO INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A LARGE AND RATHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AND GIVEN DOWN-LOW HIGH PRESSURE.
Weak high pressure over western Montana and central Idaho will continue to allow a warming trend across the region through Sunday. Winds gusts up to 40 mph will be possible for exposed locations, with higher gusts in the high terrain near the Continental Divide.
404 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW AS OF 1930Z ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S. CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND BLUEGRASS REGION. SOME STEEP RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BUT RECENT RADAR RETURNS SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AS OF 18Z.