Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs away from Lake Michigan will he mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
Slight mid-level ridging and subsequent subsidence has been keeping rain coverage today light and isolated at best. Forecast minimum temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s.
948 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will hold over the region through tonight as Jose approaches from the south.
750 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front over Indiana and Ohio will further weaken and wash out over the area, with a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Weak cold front is decaying across eastern Indiana and western Ohio this afternoon. Skies will continue to clear slowly on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s. Amplified flow pattern will dominate the pattern through the extended with with strong ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deepening trough digging into the west and Jose and Maria activity off the east coast.
Snowfall amounts will be between 8 to 10 inches for much of the higher elevations.
The GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic NWP models predict an upper pattern characterized by a quasi- stationary E-W ridge across NRN Mexico/SRN TX/NRN Gulf of Mexico during the period, with quasi- zonal flow and low amplitude disturbances moving EWD across much of the CONUS.
A broad trough is approaching from the west with dry southwest flow aloft overhead. Winds aloft and at the surface will increase as the trough approaches.
930 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front located over Lake Erie will drift southeast across the region this evening. High pressure will build into the area overnight. The high will then dominate the weather the second half of the week. Weakening cold front will sag southward across the region this evening with a few showers possible Coverage will be scattered at best and mainly be located across the western half of northern Ohio. High pressure will ridge into the area behind the front. However there will not be much of an airmass change so a few showers may linger into Tuesday night as a weak trough persists. Warmer than seasonal averages through Tuesday night.
Through sunset, we could have some small ridge top convection showers pop up before the afternoon is done, but anything there should be small and short lived as we have a little drier air that has intruded in from the northeast. However, I did put patchy fog in the grids for late tonight along river valleys and in the SW counties (where the higher dew points will be). Lows overnight should be similar for the NE half and maybe a degree or so higher for the SW with the higher dew points.
/Issued 345 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ Regime to stay largely dominated by a dampening ridge of high pressure with still mostly dry conditions prevailing. The gradual weakening of the ridge will allow the more enhanced moisture field and instability axis to start shifting slightly eastward (currently flirting with parts of the far west CWA and allowing for slight chance of shower or storm confined to near Columbus southward late this afternoon).
Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle 60s. Mins Tuesday night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness.
1005 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend as Hurricane Jose moves north toward the southern New England coast later this week. Deep-layered ridging will hold firm across the Southeast U.
Visibilities forecast from various models indicate vsbys lowering in stratus in fog 08z and afterwards, esp over the higher terrain west of the RRV from DVL to Valley City and in parts of WC MN.
942 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front over Indiana and Ohio will further weaken and wash out over the area, with a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Skies will continue to clear slowly on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s. Amplified flow pattern will dominate the pattern through the extended with with strong ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deepening trough digging into the west and Jose and Maria activity off the east coast.
Strong upper trof continues to develop over the Pacific Northwest with an increasing sw flow aloft over Colorado. This should help amplify the winds a bit in the higher foothills. The flow aloft will increase tonight through Tuesday, as a 120KT upper jet on the south side of the trough stretches from the Oregon coast eastward across Wyoming. A cold front will drop south across Colorado Tuesday evening. Northerly winds behind the front will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities, bringing an end to the Red Flag conditions.
High pressure is expected to build into the area by later in the week, and on through the weekend.
However, expect temperatures over all of the Mid-State to stabilize mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s by midnight, and then slide on down to the lower and middle 60s by dawn. Surface and upper ridge have shifted some to the east, allowing an upper trough to amplify and push across Middle Tennessee tomorrow.
715 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights.
CAMS show convection all along the front, supporting SPC premise that a line of storms will be the main convective mode, with embedded rotation due to the high shear environment. On the backside of this front, we also have some cooler temperatures, however we also maintain gusty northwest winds with GFS BUFKIT mixed winds up to around 30kts, with mixed dewpoints to around 40F. Our region will be affected by large scale upper level troughing west and northwest of our region.
1012 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Overnight weather will have a very familiar feel with persistent ridge of high pressure remaining in control. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
816 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Radar shows a few small showers popping up over my western zones where higher PWATs and heating on the ridges are forcing some local convection. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in advance of the warm front and short wave. Tuesday looks to be dry as high pressure begins to build into the area. JPK Anomalous ridging is expected to continue to strengthen over the mid- Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes through the end of the work week.
Min temps tonight look to fall only into the low to mid 70s areawide, as moisture continues to increase and low level clouds develop as a result.
744 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend as Hurricane Jose moves north toward the southern New England coast later this week. Deep-layered ridging will hold firm across the Southeast U.
As the upper level low lifts northeast this afternoon and loss of daytime heating continues, the window for potential strong storms will gradually close for most areas except portion of the north over Glades County and the Lake region late this afternoon and early evening. Although there is a relative unstable atmosphere in place with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across the region, this low lifts northeast with subsidence behind it lowering the threat for strong storms late tonight.
No weather headlines through Wednesday as slightly cooler then normal low temperatures occur with near normal afternoon highs and dry, clear conditions.
323 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 The upper level low over the Carolina's will begin to lift northeastward as the surface front continues to push away from the forecast area. Forecast soundings support a mixture of rain and snow with all snow across the higher elevations.
A large Pacific storm system will gradually move inland late this week through the upcoming weekend, bringing another period of unsettled conditions with temperatures turning cooler. Weak ridging across the region will amplify tonight through Wednesday in response to a digging upper level trough off the west coast.
Some lingering light rain/sprinkles will exit eastern Kansas by sunrise as the secondary upper trof moves east of the area. However, the northerly low level flow within the thermal trof will remain moist with stratus and stratocu cigs likely a bit slower to clear from central into eastern Kansas during the day.
At the surface, a broad region of high pressure will begin to filter into the region from the west. Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today but will still remain 5-10 degrees below normal.
and Wednesday High/mid clouds continued to gradually thicken over the region early this morning, in advance of a weak upper trof. The trof is expected to slowly move through the forecast area tonight into Wednesday, but Hudson Bay high pressure is expected to feed dry air into the region and hold off any precipitation. Under mostly cloudy skies, expect highs to reach the lower to middle 30s today, with lows ranging from the single digits far north central to the lower 20s southeast tonight.
316 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough over Quebec and a ridge through northwest Ontario.
Current WV imagery, continues to note an area of low pressure around 1000 miles west of the northern coast of California. At the surface: Weak high pressure was located over northern Nebraska. For Wednesday, a warm front will begin to push into swrn, then central Nebraska.
A closed low was around 1050 miles west of Point Conception. South and east of the low, an elongated plume of sub- tropical moisture (atmospheric river) extended from just west of Hawaii to the California coast. For today through Wednesday, the closed low off the West Coast will slowly drift eastward, becoming an open wave as it is incorporated into a larger trough diving south from the Gulf of Alaska.
Issued by National Weather Service TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 231 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Weak short wave trough currently moving through the region will shift to the south and east tonight, bringing any light snow to an end across the southern portion of the area.
As temperatures dip back below freezing tonight, could see spotty freezing drizzle if it materializes at all. However, given the warm days and relatively mild nighttime lows, road temps have been warming well above freezing during the day and not dropping too far below freezing at night. Thus think impact of any freezing precip will be minimal, but will mention potential for light icing on untreated surfaces in the HWO.
A vigorous cold front is expected to bring widespread precipitation as early as Wednesday afternoon for the far northern portions of eastern Washington and north Idaho and a little bit later for the remainder of the Inland Northwest.
352 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An upper level low will slowly drift across the area through Wednesday. The milder temperatures presently over the area will turn much cooler tonight as the system begins to move eastward. The cooler temperatures over the western half of the state will advect into the area with rain changing over to snow. Surface temperatures will play a key role in potential impacts as they may only fall to around freezing tonight, then reach the mid 30s Wednesday afternoon. Thus, our best potential for impactful snowfall will be towards dawn tonight with temperatures a touch below freezing. Elevations above 3000 feet may see more impact on the roads as temperatures stay below freezing late tonight through Wednesday.
The high pressure system is forecast to push away from the area on Wednesday and this will result in the return of southerly flow along the Rio Grande first and later in the evening across all areas. High pressure begins to drift to the east this afternoon with winds decreasing and becoming NELY around 5 KTs at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF and SELY at KDRT tonight. After a Pacific front brought very dry air and breezy west/northwest winds yesterday, a secondary cold front with northerly winds has moved through the region. Dewpoints will be higher today and afternoon humidity values will be around 20 to 30 percent with the lowest values near the Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, highs will be a bit cooler, in the 70s for much of the area.
High pressure will bring another clear day on Wednesday and conditions will remain dry with RH values falling below 30 percent. Onshore winds will return late Wednesday afternoon as the high shifts east and low level moisture will gradually increase Wednesday night.
A low pressure system off the coast of California will begin to spread moisture over the region tonight in an increasing southwest flow.
129 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough over Quebec and a ridge through northwest Ontario.
Temperatures aloft have cooled sufficiently to support light snow reaching the surface despite surface temperatures above freezing. /issued 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/ Light rain/drizzle associated with an upper level low will continue to shift off to the East. North wind has ushered in cooler air across the Midsouth. Freezing temperatures are possible across a large portion of West Tennessee, especially near the Tennessee River.
Brief high pressure will allow mild daytime temperatures to continue for Wednesday.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s across most of the CWA with temperatures in the lower 60s along the lower TX coast. The surface pressure ridge will shift eastward Wednesday allowing winds to veer more to the east and increase as the pressure gradient increases across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower 80s across the lower RGV to the middle 80s across the middle to upper RGV Wed afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer Wed night with lows in the upper 50s north to lower to mid 60s south.
Eastern Iowa and western Illinois remain in the band of strong subsidence, between the low pressure circulation to the southeast, and the inverted trof forcing located along the Missouri River. 2 AM winds remain in the 15 to 18 kt sustained range, with some gusts into the lower 20s east. Highs will be limited to the lower 40s in most locations, with some upper 30s likely north. Dry weather will continue through tonight, as the inverted trof remains west of the local area, and with it, any low level saturation. Tonight, under thin cloud cover and light winds, lows should dip to the lower to mid 20s.
Northwest flow continues into Wednesday, but deepening upstream system moving onto the Pacific Coast will result in amplification of downstream ridge across the intermountain west.
Cyclone energy induced rain/snow mix this pm is allowing falling (frozen) pcpn to mostly melt this pm, so minimal impacts are occurring. This should remain the case during these daylight hours, with temperatures above freezing, and dew point depressions ranging upwards to 10F in some spots in our north. Tmrw looks improving, but the continued back side of the cyclone input flow leans us toward a slightly more pessimistic sky forecast than numerical guidance would suggest.
This system will just about park over the area and will produce a long- duration snow over KTRI and to a lesser extent at KTYS, but temperatures during almost all of this time will be above freezing, so many fewer impacts at the surface as snow melts after landing on the unfrozen ground. Freezing levels will be low however, so aviation interests need to keep that in mind--that the only above freezing temps will be at and very near the ground tonight and Wednesday.
Meant to mention in the Winter Weather Advisory that the higher elevations of Sumner and Macon counties should also be included. Upper trough is swinging through Middle Tennessee today, with patchy light rain and generally MVFR ceilings in place.
Much of the Midsouth has already reached the high temperature today. North wind behind a cold front is ushering in a cooler airmass. Near to slightly below freezing conditions are expected across much of West Tennessee tonight. This trough will drop south through the forecast area today bringing rain showers ahead of it across the region.
Clouds have spread across the region and will play a role in keeping us cooler than average today.
414 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An area of low pressure will bring snow to the region this evening and through the day on Wednesday.
Behind the storm system a ridge is building over the Rockies. Today a warm front will move east through the forecast area to Highway 83. Behind the warm front lower dew points will move in/mix down to the ground west of Highway 27.
Temperatures will trend closer to normal values for the second half of the week heading into the weekend as the coastal low helps to displace the high pressure that has been entrenched across the region over the past several days. This is because as the low continues to track eastward, there won't be much of a push northward for clouds to build across the area. This time, however, temperatures will be a bit warmer as temperatures will generally be in teens with some locations in the single digits. Wednesday will be warmer as the coastal low is helping to displace the high pressure system that has been entrenched across the region.
As upper ridge continues to build into the Central High Plains during the week the warming trend will continue. Wednesday highs will reach the lower and middle 60s.
The upper level trough is now moving across the area today, bringing low clouds and light rain showers to northern portions of the area. With cooler and drier air filtering southward, lows tonight will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
323 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Light rain/drizzle associated with an upper level low will continue to shift off to the East. North wind has ushered in cooler air across the Midsouth. Freezing temperatures are possible across a large portion of West Tennessee, especially near the Tennessee River.
323 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 High pressure over eastern Canada will keep mostly sunny skies across central New York today although increasing clouds are expected over northeast Pennsylvania.
Cold front makes passage this morning with isolated showers initially over the interior and east of I-65. Cold front gradually moving eastward into the area with a few light showers advancing east northeast over the southern zones. Mid level height falls with the eastward passage of an upper level trof axis today results in downstream surface pressure falls over the Carolinas. Much cooler air filters in tonight.
158 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An upper level trough will approach the region through this evening, bringing the chance of thunderstorms mainly to the eastern Midlands. The upper trough and a cold front will move through the area overnight and breezy conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday.
Colder, below normal low temperatures can be expected tonight with lows near the freezing mark. Plenty of solar insolation during the afternoon will lead to warmer high temperatures.
Moisture return will initially be meager but will slowly improve as southerly flow continues through the remainder of the week beneath an approaching upper ridge.
318 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Cloud scattering out this afternoon as the upper trough axis to the east continues to move away from the area. Clear skies and light winds overnight will make for a chilly first night of spring, but warmer temperatures will be in the offing as high pressure begins to move east and southerly winds return for the latter portion of the work week.
The upper low was near Evansville and was drifting northeast over southern Indiana. Another system upstream will interact with this Indiana system downstream and cause a fujiwhara effect where the upper low will curve more north. The upper trof over eastern North America will be slow to move east as waves of energy of pacific origin reach the Midwest late this week.
Wednesday should be dry with some reduction in clouds, and thus warmer temperatures. Winds will also increase some for Wednesday as low pressure begins to develop over the Rockies.
Expecting wind speeds to lower by this evening as a region of high pressure moves overhead. 12z soundings support warmer temperatures in the mid/upper 70s but CAA and mixing from the winds will be competing with full sunshine and warm 850 mb temps. 42 Elevated north winds and seas (caution in the bays and advisories offshore) can be expected this morning in the wake of a cold front. The offshore flow will diminish during the afternoon and evening hours (bays starting late this morning and offshore this afternoon) as high pressure builds into the area. The high will move off to the east on Wednesday and will allow southeast winds to resume. Expect increasing gusty north winds this morning through early this afternoon, but with the cooler temperatures, relative humidities look to bottom out between 25% and 35%.
The convection ahead of the cold front will continue to move through the area this afternoon and evening, with the cold front itself pushing south of the area later tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure builds into the area behind the front overnight and Wednesday. Strong high pressure will continue to build southward over the middle of the week with breezy conditions persisting into Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, cirrus is thickening into nw lower MI, in advance of slow-moving upper troffing in the northern plains/upper MS Valley. Max temps still cool, near 30f to the lower 30s in most locales. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Starting to sound like a broken record, but southern extent of broad and strong Canadian high pressure continues to dominate our weather. Northeast flow around this high resulting in a bit of a winter chill across the northwoods, helped along by cloud-free skies. May even see a few flurries as top of shallow moist layer extends into the low end of the dendritic growth layer. Slight modification of the low level environment and a bit shallower moisture profile may mute this response some, but still could see some very shallow strato-cu and a few flurries.
A cold front Thu morning will usher in a cool showery air mass with low snow levels, that will last into the weekend.
Spotty light precipitation was associated with the upper low across parts of southeast IL late this morning. The rest of the area will be quite chilly for the first day of spring with highs only in the 40-45 range and wind chills in the lower 30s. Elsewhere around the area, after some morning sunshine, skies will become mostly cloudy this afternoon with high temperatures only in the lower 40s.
A strong cold front will push across the waters tonight.
The main change overnight was to add some light freezing drizzle in western Minnesota due to weak lift and the lack of cloud ice seeding. A stronger wave was evident across northern Montana this afternoon which may allow for a more concentrated area of light freezing drizzle or light snow Wednesday morning in central Minnesota. Over the past 24 hours, models have trended drier and cooler for this upcoming weekend storm.