Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue into Wednesday, then much cooler air will move into central Indiana to end the week. The front that will bring the cooler air could also bring some rain to parts of the area mid-week, then another system could bring more rain for the weekend. Dry weather will continue across the area through tonight with an upper high in control across the area. The upper high will continue its grip on central Indiana through Tuesday night, keeping things dry. The upper high will then begin to break down, allowing a cold front to sneak closer to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Tuesday is a persistence forecast with the strong upper ridge maintaining its influence over the mid-South.
343 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 The short term forecast is near carbon copy of yesterday as a sprawling upper level ridging remains in place across the southern U. Dry mid level air above 875 mb will limit cloud cover to scattered fair weather CU this afternoon which will once again allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s. A bit of mid level moisture wrapping around the southeastern side of the upper ridge will allow for a bit more in the way of cloud cover across the region on Wednesday and perhaps even an isolated shower or two although this is not expected to have any widespread effect on afternoon high temperatures.
Cold front situated along the SD/MN border area will continue to push east tonight, with a cooler airmass infiltrating the entire forecast area. As the front settles out south of the region, the highest chances for rain will also head south. However, with a mid level trof to the west of the Northern Plains, chances for light rain will continue across the region through mid-week. Best chances for measurable rain will probably occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as main trof lifts out bodily across the region.
243 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Upper level ridging will dominate through the middle of the week and above normal temperatures are forecast through much of the week.
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A deep upper level trough will slowly progress eastward today across the western CONUS. Broad southwest flow aloft will be in place on the eastern side of the upper trough across our region. At the surface a cold front will continue to sag south through the Southern Plains. Did try to correspond the higher pops with the better lift - so trimmed back pops a bit late this afternoon into early this evening when the isentropic lift is at the minimum. Highs today will struggle to reach the lower 40s across northwest Nebraska, with mid 40s to lower 50s anticipated across the rest of western and north central Nebraska. The upper trough will begin to weaken and move into the Northern Plains Wednesday.
938 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Mean western/central CONUS trough will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather through mid week. Primary cold front has pushed through the region with a lingering/waning precip band per jet streak/FGEN forcing shifting east. Finally, the main upper low will lift out of the western CONUS and shift toward the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing another round of precip into the area. There will be some locations that will see lows at or around freezing the next two nights. However, with clouds and precip chances, have opted to go with just a SPS mentioning the potential for freezing temps, mainly in NE WY and far NW SD. Another trough will push through the area this weekend, offering low chances for showers.
337 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Today and Tonight: Mid level ridge center remains locked in over north MS again this morning and will continue there through tonight. Mid and upper 90s were common yesterday and a degree or two warmer than that will be the case today.
A cold front slowly moving in from the northwest, will bring scattered showers and storms to the area for late Tuesday night, through Wednesday night.
The highly amplified pattern will begin shifting Tuesday night as a positively tilted trough moves east through the Rockies, with a cold front approaching the area from the northwest. The cold front and associated showers and storms will move through during the day Wednesday, however models have slowed down the front slightly with most of the precip perhaps holding off til later in the day.
304 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 The forecast for the rest of the week will be dominated by a large upper/mid level ridge currently parked over the southern Mississippi River valley and is forecast to slowly slide east and weaken by the upcoming weekend. At the surface, the subtropical ridge is holding north of Florida and setting up persistent easterly winds, becoming breezy during the day today and Wednesday. Subsidence from the ridging at the surface and aloft will keep warm and stable conditions in place, with temperatures running a few degrees above normal through the week.
The upper level low responsible for the cold and snow will continue to exert an influence on the state over the next couple of days by providing unseasonably cold temperatures along with a few scattered snow showers, mostly over the higher elevations southwest and portions of north-central Montana.
This upper level area of high pressure will continue to provide strong forcing for subsidence over the next 48 hours, continuing our recent trend of hot and dry conditions across the state. Temperatures were in the upper 80s across the northern portion of the state and in the lower 90s across the southern part of the state. Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than current temperatures with most of the state topping out near or above the 90 degree mark this afternoon. With high pressure remaining in place over Arkansas for tomorrow and Wednesday, the first two days of October will likely be recorded as 90 degree days at KLIT airport, and across much of the state.
The low level jet has cranked up streamer showers again across South Central Texas into the Hill Country early this morning. The showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms linger though mid morning, then gradually dissipate by midday as the low level jet weakens. A drier airmass rotating around the Subtropical Ridge overhead leads to no chances of showers and thunderstorms with heating. Although the low level jet cranks up streamer showers again overnight into Wednesday morning, coverage will be less due to the drier airmass.
205 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A positively tilted, high amplitude trough extends across the northwestern CONUS, with a broad area of high pressure over the southeastern states. With cold high pressure to the north, winds across the CWA are northerly around 10 kts, and temperatures are falling into the 30s and 40s. Beneath the upper jet, energy ejecting from the trough will continue to support rain and snow today. As the trough continues to push through the region tonight and Wednesday, rain will expand over the CWA, changing to snow again over northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. Lows will dip near or below freezing most places Wednesday night, and widespread frost will develop. Transient upper ridging will end the week with warmer and dry conditions.
A trough in the northern Rockies will continue to have the upper level winds out of the southwest in the central plains which will aid in bringing in the conveyor belt of moisture which extends all the way to Baja California. Tonight the area of moisture slowly moves eastward as the strong cold front continues to slowly descend to the south. Cooler temperatures will continue into Wednesday along with low clouds and some residual rain showers behind the cold front. Tended to go for the cooler trend with highs struggling to get to 60 near Hays to lower 70s along the Oklahoma border.
Current temperatures are cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 20s in the mountain valleys to the mid 50s across milder portions of the Central Valley.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Mid level ridge center remains locked in over north MS again this morning and will continue there through tonight. Mid and upper 90s were common yesterday and a degree or two warmer than that will be the case today.
Heat dome of high pressure will remain anchored over the southeast quarter of the nation today through Wednesday.
A strong upper level trough will begin impacting the high plains and bringing us some fall weather. A few snow showers will be possible in far western Carbon County and the higher elevations of the Snowy and Sierra Madre Mountain ranges. Showers will continue into Wednesday as the upper level trough lifts to the northeast. With its passage, conditions will quickly become drier and warmer raising concerns regarding fire weather.
The monster trough dominating the West has eroded any marine inversion. Weak high pressure builds and the dry air and compression will crank up temperatures, especially in the valleys like the Inland Empire, where upper 80s will be common.
/Issued 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ The upper level pattern will remain southwest across the region as the Panhandles remain sandwiched in between an upper level trough over the northwest U. and an upper level ridge over the southeast U. This pattern will remain this way until an upper level disturbance within the base of the parent upper level trough swings eastward across the Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As the upper level trough moves east onto the northern plains it will cause our flow aloft to become ever so slightly west southwest which may pinch off the tropical moisture plume for a short time.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues to prevail over the region as an upper level trough remains situated across the western CONUS. We will find ourselves sandwiched between that system and high pressure slowly building across south central Canada and northern North Dakota today. The period starts out Wednesday night with a negatively tilted/good lift short wave trough moving northeast and out of the region taking the rain with it.
The persistent upper level trough to the west of Utah will finally move east through the area tonight. High pressure aloft will replace the trough Wednesday.
A persistent trough over the western states will bring continued breezy southwest winds today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): KBRO radar shows isolated to scattered showers continuing to develop and move northwestward across the lower Texas Gulf waters and Deep South Texas early this morning. The mid to upper level ridge continues to persist across the mid Mississippi River Valley, keeping our region on the southwest side of the ridge and allowing for a deep layer southeasterly flow. With the high pressure parked in relative close proximity, expect temperatures to remain a couple of degrees above average through the period. With a persistent southeast fetch and higher than normal astronomical tides expected, some coastal runup to the base of the dunes is possible during the high tide cycle again this evening.
A backing wind profile throughout the atmospheric column is indicative of deep layer ridging, and this is also very evident in the abnormally warm and dry conditions observed. The clear and dry airmass has allowed for radiational cooling to occur, and a shallow temperature inversion is noted in the lowest 1000 feet of the atmosphere.
High pressure to control the weather pattern again today with winds generally less than 10 knots. /issued 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ The short term forecast is near carbon copy of yesterday as a sprawling upper level ridging remains in place across the southern U. Dry mid level air above 875 mb will limit cloud cover to scattered fair weather CU this afternoon which will once again allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s. A bit of mid level moisture wrapping around the southeastern side of the upper ridge will allow for a bit more in the way of cloud cover across the region on Wednesday and perhaps even an isolated shower or two although this is not expected to have any widespread effect on afternoon high temperatures.
/issued 304 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ The forecast for the rest of the week will be dominated by a large upper/mid level ridge currently parked over the southern Mississippi River valley and is forecast to slowly slide east and weaken by the upcoming weekend. At the surface, the subtropical ridge is holding north of Florida and setting up persistent easterly winds, becoming breezy during the day today and Wednesday. Subsidence from the ridging at the surface and aloft will keep warm and stable conditions in place, with temperatures running a few degrees above normal through the week.
Dry weather moves in on Wednesday, with a bit warmer daytime temperatures. Cooler start to the day this morning as clouds have cleared out of many areas and most valleys have dropped into the 20's with the polar air mass in place. Long wave trof over the west persists, and one last round of mostly snow showers will develop late this morning, mainly in Elko County, and persist into the afternoon. This will bring drier air, and after another cold start to the morning in the 20's, a 5-10 degree warm up will be in store, with some valleys moving into the lower 60's. Quasi-zonal pattern with minor short waves and ridges through the period.
655 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Upper level ridging will dominate through the middle of the week and above normal temperatures are forecast through much of the week.
Radar trends really tell the story with intermittent showers moving through the lower Rio Grande Valley. /issued 418 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): KBRO radar shows isolated to scattered showers continuing to develop and move northwestward across the lower Texas Gulf waters and Deep South Texas early this morning. The mid to upper level ridge continues to persist across the mid Mississippi River Valley, keeping our region on the southwest side of the ridge and allowing for a deep layer southeasterly flow. With the high pressure parked in relative close proximity, expect temperatures to remain a couple of degrees above average through the period. With a persistent southeast fetch and higher than normal astronomical tides expected, some coastal runup to the base of the dunes is possible during the high tide cycle again this evening.
The trough of low pressure continues to linger over the Northern Rockies today. Temperatures should be slightly warmer today when compared to yesterday's readings. Also, lingering instability from the low will cause a few light showers across the region, especially south of the I-90 corridor.
1049 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Upper level ridging will dominate through the middle of the week.
417 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 As the open tropical wave moves into the gulf by the end of the week, the first actual cold front will also stall near the coast at the same time.
Then the upper low moves east across the Dakotas and should spread rain showers into at least the western CWA Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF is a bit slower with the low, and mainly affect the region Wednesday night. Overall cooler temperatures are now entrenched with clouds remaining.
Upper ridge builds briefly with the next trof digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will start to pull warmer air into the region for a return to more seasonable temperatures for the end of the week.
Cooler conditions will continue today before a pattern change brings a warming trend that returns temperatures to normal. Looking at WV imagery early this morning, it appears the last vorticity lobe will round the main upper low to the north and mark the end of the effects this low will have on the region. Could see gusts up to 30-35 mph in the higher terrain areas of Mohave County this afternoon but other than that, no significant impacts are expected.
CIGs are expected to improve to VFR by late morning, with streamer showers also coming to an end around that time as the low level jet relaxes. The low level jet has cranked up streamer showers again across South Central Texas into the Hill Country early this morning. The showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms linger though mid morning, then gradually dissipate by midday as the low level jet weakens. A drier airmass rotating around the Subtropical Ridge overhead leads to no chances of showers and thunderstorms with heating. Although the low level jet cranks up streamer showers again overnight into Wednesday morning, coverage will be less due to the drier airmass.
428 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A positively tilted, high amplitude trough extends across the northwestern CONUS, with a broad area of high pressure over the southeastern states. With cold high pressure to the north, winds across the CWA are northerly around 10 kts, and temperatures are falling into the 30s and 40s. Beneath the upper jet, energy ejecting from the trough will continue to support rain and snow today. As the trough continues to push through the region tonight and Wednesday, rain will expand over the CWA, changing to snow again over northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. Lows will dip near or below freezing most places Wednesday night, and widespread frost will develop. Transient upper ridging will end the week with warmer and dry conditions.
The story begins with high pressure continuing to sit atop Middle Tennessee for another 36 to 48 hours.
This is flow around the high pressure system that remains in control of the southeastern United States.
High pressure over the Southeast promotes an easterly flow both at the surface and aloft through the near term.
Upper trof over the west is expected to start moving northeast into the Northern Plains on Wednesday. But any breaks in the clouds would allow for near freezing temperatures toward morning, mainly over the western CWA.
Central Indiana will remain under the influence of high pressure through tomorrow, resulting in near record high temperatures in the low 90s.
252 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted upper level low/trough over western Idaho extending south into the Great Basin. For tonight, the upper low will shift slowly east with another jet streak, albeit weaker than this afternoons, sliding down the west side of the upper low and rounding the base of the trough between 18z-21z Wednesday.
The strong ridge over the area was allowing enough subsidence to prevent any rainfall from occurring across the local area, with just scattered cumulus clouds present. Given the building ridge and ample sunshine, temps should climb a couple more degrees, approaching the 100 degree mark in some locations. A muggy night will then take shape across the area as clear skies and calm winds allow temps to fall into the lower 70s. The strong ridge (with 500 mb heights near the climatological max for early October) will persist through the first part of short term period, keeping temps well above normal. Under mostly clear skies, temps will warm into the mid to upper 90s once again on Wednesday, with overnight lows Wednesday night only fall into the lower 70s.
Minimal cloud cover and high pressure directly overhead will pave the way for a very hot afternoon. Temps were adjusted in a few spots to go a touch warmer.
Starting with today, deep moisture plume is oriented SW-NE just to the west of our area, as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Narda gets funneled between an upper ridge over the southern Mississippi Valley and a trough across the western US. A cold front is slowly inching southward across northwest Kansas with most of the precipitation along or ahead of the front. Question then becomes how far south the cold front makes it tonight into tomorrow.
Severe storms with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and hail especially through early evening in the vicinity of the slow moving cold front. The 12Z h5 pattern continued to have the trough over Montana/Idaho with a ridge over the southeast U. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday as the h5 trough moves into the Plains.
203 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
157 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A large ridge will remain aloft over the southeastern U. At the surface, high pressure will remain north of the state, keeping an east to northeast wind in place across the region. As the ridge finally starts weakening late this week into the weekend, additional moisture starts to return and rain chances go back up. High pressure north of the region will keep east to northeast winds in place through the next several days, with surges each night bringing wind speeds up to exercise caution levels.
Another hot and dry day as surface and upper level ridging remain entrenched across the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
An upper level trough continues to linger over the Northern Rockies today, keeping temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Expect another cold morning tomorrow, with temperatures dropping well below freezing in the valleys of western Montana. The valleys of north-central Idaho will see their lows flirting with freezing, but may stay just above 32F due to clouds. Due to the upper level trough, the atmosphere will be unstable enough for afternoon and evening snow showers over southwest Montana and north-central Idaho.
Weak disturbances ejecting out of the base of the trough to the NE across MT will bring clouds and possibly some light snow showers to portions of SW MT and eastern portions of north-central MT through Wednesday, while generally clear skies have developed over western portions of central and north-central MT.
Showers should come to an end quickly after sunset, with lows dipping into the lower 70s region-wide.
KGUY will begin to see the winds become westerly near 18z as a cold front approaches the Oklahoma Panhandle. /Issued 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ The upper level pattern will remain southwest across the region as the Panhandles remain sandwiched in between an upper level trough over the northwest U. and an upper level ridge over the southeast U. This pattern will remain this way until an upper level disturbance within the base of the parent upper level trough swings eastward across the Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As the upper level trough moves east onto the northern plains it will cause our flow aloft to become ever so slightly west southwest which may pinch off the tropical moisture plume for a short time.
158 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Western CONUS upper trough is slowly pushing east today with light rain and snow showers across the area, even some freezing rain at times in the higher elevations. Fairly unusual setup for the time of year, with satellite and bufr progs confirming a lack of ice in the mid and upper levels given warm ll profiles, resulting in the the production of freezing rain when combined with unseasonably cool 2m temps. Further south, a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet will be possible. Although profiles support freezing rain (mainly in the Black Hills and portions of NE WY), any ice accretion will be highly limited given low expected QPF, warm surfaces, and temps right around freezing. 5 inch range, with the highest totals expected on ridge tops/buttes/hills and on grassy sfcâs.
A consensus model solution suggests that the subtropical ridge centered to our west will continue to slowly weaken and lose amplitude from tonight-Wednesday night, as the longwave trough in place over the western CONUS lifts northeastward across the Rockies and into the northern Plains. However, with the center of the ridge expected to become directly aligned across the TN Valley, we anticipate another day of record breaking temperatures in the upper 90s once again tomorrow.
Temperatures are not expected to climb much higher this afternoon, however, a few locations could still manage to reach the lower 50s. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 30s across portions of the northwest Sandhills, while the remainder of the CWA will be in the lower to mid 40s. For Wednesday night, expect skies to continue to clear from west to east as high pressure at the surface begins to settle in.