Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, low level moisture will become more and more shallow overnight as subsidence inversion lowers, but even though snow shower and flurry activity will diminish, the low clouds will remain.
A mid-level trough is parked over the eastern United States. Two low pressure systems from Canada are going to work their way along this trough through the region over the next 24 hours. All the low level moisture will produce low ceilings and some area sprinkles and flurries, but aren't expecting anything measurable. Even with a north wind, cloud cover will help to limit overnight lows to the mid to upper 20s west of Interstate 65 and areas east of 65 will likely remain slightly warmer up to near freezing.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the region through midweek. Afternoon highs are expected to be around 10-15 degrees F above average for this time of year, with the plains reaching the lower to mid 60s and the high valleys reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s.
An upper trough now located over the upper Midwest will drop southeast this evening. An attendant cold front will become more defined tonight and shift southeast through the region. Satellite shows increasing clouds along the lower and upper level frontal band over AR/TN and from eastern OK through the lower OH valley. The cold front will continue to push southeast of the area on Monday morning. Temperatures will be much colder with highs only in the upper 30s- around 40 atop the higher Cumberland Plateau areas in TN and far northeast AL, with middle 40s further southwest.
Winds will become light and variable as high pressure moves in at the surface.
820 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 Some light snow is possible tonight and Monday with crossing low pressure. Light snow is being observed on radar in Ohio, downwind of the lakes where a thermal trough is propagating southward.
415 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure over the Rockies will continue through the short term. This closed low moves south passing back into the Pacific off the shore of southern California on Monday. This creates another brief rex block with the area of high pressure still in place over the western CONUS.
624 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 Two upper level low pressure centers will fujiwhara in vicinity of Lower Michigan as a large potential vorticity trough begins to deepen over the eastern United States. There is little to no dry air advection forecasted in the lowest 4. All of lower Michigan remains socked in low clouds this afternoon, with temperatures only around/slightly above freezing. Thus, activity should be very light with the shallow cloud depths, and could even be a touch of light freezing rain tomorrow with the lack of ice nuclei (note the Sarnia obs today).
503 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 (This evening through Monday) No significant weather issues tonight or tomorrow as the area remains under northwest flow aloft between the exiting storm system and the upper ridge developing from the southern High Plains to the northern Rockies. The biggest local influence will remain the remnant snowpack keeping high temperatures much cooler in far northwest Oklahoma again on Monday.
638 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 VFR early this evening will deteriorate into the MVFR range after 04Z as Cigs lower in association with an approaching area of low pressure and cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. As the low approaches chances for RA/SHRA will increase at all terminals overnight into early Monday morning with prevailing MVFR cigs expected between 05-15Z with localized IFR cigs/vsbys possible in areas of heavier RA/SHRA. Southern jet stream system energy producing weak low pressure area on stalled front in SE Gulf of Mexico this afternoon to move into the C-S FL Peninsula tonight while Deep South cold front sweeps into N FL Peninsula.
Given the high confidence and in coordination with the MPX office, have gone with a Dense Fog Advisory from Lake of the Woods south-southwest to Elbow Lake and Wadena.
Thereafter, a storm system is expected to bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a chance of showers the latter half of the work week. A ridge of high pressure aloft will be responsible for this quick warming trend which will continue for the first one-half of this coming week. Thereafter, models were showing a cut-off low developing off the southern California and northern Baja coasts by late Monday. Latest model solutions were in better agreement today with the timing of this upper low ejecting eastward and impacting southern AZ.
256 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure over the Rockies wil continue though the short term. This closed low moves south passing back into the Pacific off the shore of southern California on Monday. This creates another brief rex block with the area of high pressure still in place over the western CONUS.
Since this isn't a classic radiational fog event, confidence in the lower visibility is not high and have decided to hold off on an advisory at this time. Several of the high resolution models are producing some pops there tonight, but these also have been squeezing out QPF during the day today under these stratus clouds, so do not have a lot of confidence in it. This ridge has temperatures at 850,700 and 500mb more than two standard deviations above normal in the NAEFS standardized anomalies.
A couple of upper lows will move across the area tonight into Monday, bringing some flurries to the area. Lower confidence flurries will be seen given lack of them being observed even upstream or where the better lift from the upper low is now that will be arriving later, but not confident enough there will be none to pull them out. Cloudy conditions will continue tonight as one upper low tracks across the area tonight, closely followed by another upper low approaching from the NW by daybreak. The upper lows will be exiting the area tomorrow but will be followed by a weak short wave Monday night.
This will occur as the upper low over Ontario will track swd along the axis of Lake MI.
505 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 Strong high pressure aloft remains in control of our weather. Mid level winds begin to increase later tonight as ridge begins to flatten, and this will lead to an increase in wind along the foothills. JKL High pressure ridging will hold firm for a couple more days across the forecast area.
Still might see some mixing of very light rain/snow in the higher elevations of the north Georgia mountains before the precipitation ends early Monday morning, but very little or no accumulations are expected.
A weak cold front oriented acrs SE TX into W LA will traverse the area through the evening, with winds bcmg NW around 5 KT overnight.
440 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over the Pacific Northwest, a skinny ridge over the Rockies, and northerly flow bringing some high level moisture into the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure remains over the area with temperatures mainly in the 50s, with a few 60s around the eastern foothills. A more unsettled, progressive pattern sets up the second half of the week, resulting in cooler temperatures and some chances for showers.
/issued 142 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020/ Temperatures will continue to rise into the 60s for much of the forecast area today under full sunshine as our trough axis from yesterday has pressed east, leading to rising heights and dry northerly flow aloft. There will be a "cooler" spot aligned over the high terrain to the southwest where snow fell yesterday.
Satellite analysis indicates that the upper level trough axis is beginning to push through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Conditions will rapidly improve after this trough axis pushes east of the area this evening.
500mb analysis shows a low pressure system across western TX with zonal flow aloft across the SE. At the surface, weak high pressure centered near the ARKLAMISS will translate quickly eastward overnight and early tomorrow. Low pressure is expected to develop across the northern Gulf of Mexico and move across the peninsula of Florida late Sunday into Monday. All of the moisture remains in the low levels.
Overnight lows will drop into the middle to upper 20s, while highs on Monday reach the lower 40s. However, a minor update will be necessary in the next hour to accommodate the cooler temps. Lows tonight will dip into the middle to upper 20s, with highs only rebounding into the lower 40s on Monday.
Temperatures will start off seasonably cold to slightly below normal, but trend warmer and rise above average from late week into the weekend. Upper low approaching from the midwest will spread increasing mid and high level cloudiness over the region late tonight. Upper level trough will push across Pa on Monday, accompanied by a good deal of cloudiness, especially over the Alleghenies. Inversion heights will be low, so only a light dusting is anticipated on the ridges of Somerset/Cambria counties.
416 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 Ridging remains in place through the next 36 hours, with warmer air aloft capping off the cold pools trapped around the region. Temperatures making above freezing this afternoon will finally help erode some of the remaining snow in the area, helping to add a bit of mixing to the sfc areas with remaining cold pools.
However, low level moisture will become more and more shallow overnight as subsidence inversion lowers, but even though snow shower and flurry activity will diminish by sunrise, the low clouds will remain.
High temperatures look to remain cool, with highs in the lower 40s.
Satellite imagery showed a broken band of mid and high level clouds generally along the Highway 25 corridor with clear skies noted elsewhere. This band was associated with the upper level trough axis that will continue shifting east through the night. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to upper 30s tonight within a cold air advection regime. Dry and cool northwest flow aloft will keep the area beneath the western fringes of the core of cold air which will support seasonably cool afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 50s tomorrow beneath sunny skies.
With temperatures slowly falling into the low 40s and upper 30s, anything that makes it to the surface will remain liquid.
Low pressure will pass well to our southeast on Tuesday allowing any substantial precipitation to remain well offshore.
An upper level low continues to drift south toward the area this afternoon, currently over central IL, IN and east central MO. Secondary upper low will be over IN by 12z Monday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday night will be quiet as high pressure takes over.
214 AM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 A cold front is forecast to push through the area this morning. The weather is already active this morning due to a warm front, so most of the area may not realize the potential active weather from a frontal passage. behind the front, the wind will pick up out of the northwest and advect in a cooler and drier air mass. Lows tomorrow look to be around 15F cooler than this morning. High pressure will continue to nestle snugly into the region, keeping cold air in place for a few more days with NW to N flow.
The upper-level ridge that's responsible for our well above average temperatures this past week will remain in place through mid-week, but it will finally begin to broaden and flatten, signaling a change in the pattern.
The aforementioned positively-tilted and deeply- reflected trough continues to move through the N Central Gulf Coast Region overnight. A positively-tilted and deeply-reflected trough moves through the N Central Gulf Coast Region overnight and brings clearing skies, drier air and cooler temperatures for the next two days. Currently an upper tropospheric jet maximum is oriented downstream from the aforementioned trough over our region and is forcing sustained upward vertical motion which is aiding the formation of light precipitation along an observable cloud band whose western edge is now working its way east to be oriented almost along I-65. Winds become northwesterly and increase tomorrow afternoon as drier and cooler air builds in throughout the day.
Rain chances will steadily increase overnight across ECFL as a strong cold front approaches the area. Overnight lows for tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s except for lower 50s across northern Volusia County, and in the low 60s across Martin county. Conditions expected to deteriorate tonight starting around 03Z, as a strong cold front approaches the Florida peninsula. Winds will then increase to 15-20 KT starting in the Volusia and Brevard county waters starting early in the morning and then spread across all the waters by the afternoon as a strong cold front passes through.
Temperatures over Harper county, along with far northern Ellis and western parts of Woodward and Woods counties, have been running 10 to almost 20 degrees cooler than surrounding locations.
likewise, high level moisture above 12kft in association with an upper level trough currently ovhd will quickly shift east of our region as well.
The upper level ridge sitting over our forecast region and downsloping winds will continue this dry pattern of above normal temperatures, low RHs, and clear skies through Tuesday. The unseasonably warm weather will continue through Weds as the upper ridge axis passes east of the area.
Rain will be ending from west to east this morning and skies will gradually clear as a cold front and axis of an upper level trough moves through our area. Deep layer northwest flow will bring a cooler and much drier airmass into the southeast CONUS. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s inland areas with upper 30s to around 40 along the coast. Our northernmost zones may briefly drop below freezing, as well as the normally colder locations.
Very dry low to mid levels will bring about full sunshine during the day, and downsloping northwest surface winds in the 10-15 mph range will permit afternoon highs to climb into the low to mid 60s outside the remaining snowpack which will stay about 5-10 degrees cooler.
Latest surface observations from a broader area suggests a low pressure center is deepening in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Lower level troughing will swing further east and also towards the Keys. Expect winds to freshen out of the southwest overnight as a weak low pressure system races east northeastward through Keys waters. There will be a time gap between when the low pushes northeast of our area and the arrival of the next cold front. Expect winds to lull for a time early Monday, but surge out of the northwest in the late afternoon and early evening as the prefrontal trough pushes east of our area.
The upper low that brought light snow to portions of southeast Oregon and far southwest Idaho today will move south out of the area tonight. Ridging aloft will move in from the west tomorrow and then drop south Tuesday, allowing nearly zonal flow by Tuesday night. The only possible exception to that will come from an approaching wave that may spread light snow into the higher terrain of northern Baker County Tuesday night.
This trough is currently aiding in surface cyclogenesis across the southern Gulf of Mexico; however, with the amount of forcing for ascent coupled with significant divergence aloft, the minimal moisture that is available across our region will develop into widespread showers through the evening and overnight hours tonight. Precipitation will predominantly fall overnight, and is expected to clear up by the early afternoon on Monday as the trough is expected to merge with a descending trough from the Ohio Valley off the east coast of Florida Monday night. Nighttime lows will dip back into the low to mid 30s Monday night.
A positively-tilted and deeply-reflected trough moves through the N Central Gulf Coast Region overnight and brings clearing skies, drier air and cooler temperatures for the next two days. Currently an upper tropospheric jet maximum is oriented downstream from the aforementioned trough over our region and is forcing sustained upward vertical motion which is aiding the formation of light precipitation along an observable cloud band whose western edge is now working its way east to be oriented almost along I-65. Winds become northwesterly and increase tomorrow afternoon as drier and cooler air builds in throughout the day.
1145 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 Two upper level low pressure centers are in the beginning stages of phasing in vicinity of Lower Michigan as a large potential vorticity trough begins to deepen over the eastern United States. There is little to no dry air advection forecasted in the lowest 4. All of lower Michigan remains socked in low clouds this afternoon, with temperatures only around/slightly above freezing. Thus, activity should be very light with the shallow cloud depths, and could even be a touch of light freezing rain tomorrow with the lack of ice nuclei (note the Sarnia obs today). With the very low inversion heights, will lean toward the low clouds being scoured out to support a mostly sunny- partly cloudy Tuesday, which should begin our warmup with building heights and increasing westerly flow for the mid week period.
A few of the coldest valleys in the Hill Country could drop to or slightly below the freezing mark each morning.
High pressure will settle over the state and winds will remain light and variable overnight, becoming more northwesterly after dawn Mon morning. On the local map, a weak surface cold front is currently pushing across portions of SE AR and will continue moving SE this evening. This surface front extends to the N and E into an area of low pressure invof TN Valley. Aloft, an upper trough is progressing across the MS Valley towards the Appalachians as upper level ridge ejects into the C Plains. Overnight, lows will dip to near or slightly below freezing under clearing skies. This high will remain in place through Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs topping out in the mid 50s and lows near freezing.
942 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure over the Rockies will continue through the short term. This closed low moves south passing back into the Pacific off the shore of southern California on Monday. This creates another brief rex block with the area of high pressure still in place over the western CONUS.
With temperatures slowly falling into the low 40s and upper 30s, anything that makes it to the surface will remain liquid. Winds are transitioning from southerly to northwesterly as a weak low pressure system moves across Middle Tennessee.
No clouds associated with this trough. a strong low pressure system beginning to move onshore western Washington and British Columbia. High pressure stays in place through the next several days with 700mb temperatures +5 to +6C.
939 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 Ridging remains in place through the next 36 hours, with warmer air aloft capping off the cold pools trapped around the region. Temperatures making above freezing this afternoon will finally help erode some of the remaining snow in the area, helping to add a bit of mixing to the sfc areas with remaining cold pools.
Clear and dry conditions persist across the region tonight under strong high pressure.
/28/ Satellite imagery showed a broken band of mid and high level clouds generally along the Highway 25 corridor with clear skies noted elsewhere. This band was associated with the upper level trough axis that will continue shifting east through the night. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to upper 30s tonight within a cold air advection regime. Dry and cool northwest flow aloft will keep the area beneath the western fringes of the core of cold air which will support seasonably cool afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 50s tomorrow beneath sunny skies.
1143 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance A little more active evening than initially anticipated with freezing drizzle developing across portions of central/north- central Wisconsin. Have extended the Special Weather Statement farther south into Marathon County as observations continue to show some southward advancement of very light freezing drizzle or mist. With the low clouds in place, temperatures tonight are not expected to drop as much as the past couple nights, with lows in the lower to middle 20s. At this time, expect mostly cloudy skies to remain in place over the area, which will keep highs a touch cooler than previously forecast. Highs will likely still range from the lower to middle 30s.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region. Upper low is moving southeast out of the region this afternoon. Otherwise upper ridge builds into the region tonight and Monday.
An upper level low could bring some flurries today.
1130 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 Some light snow is possible tonight and Monday with crossing low pressure. An upper low is expected to track from the Midwest toward the Upper Ohio Valley region overnight. The best chance for any minimal accumulation is across the WV ridges, where slightly deeper moisture and ascent is progged. Elsewhere, a lack of moisture above the low levels should preclude more than very light, patchy snow/flurries.
the upper level pattern shows little change with the upper ridge axis along the Continental Divide and low pressure over the east/northeast United States. Low temperatures tonight fall into the low to mid 20s. broad upper level ridging remains over the area with perhaps some high clouds moving through from northwest to southeast. After morning lows in the low to mid 20s high temperatures rise slightly into the low to mid 60s.
306 AM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Consolidation of separate pv anomalies underway across the northern Ohio valley early this morning, this process ensuring the western expanse of high amplitude eastern conus troughing remains a fixture over the next 24 hours. Reorientation of the upper height field will also afford a brief westward drift of the lake Huron aggregate trough early today. An incremental increase in upper level heights commence mid week as predominant large scale troughing relinquishes control to the east.
909 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 (Issued 910 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020) Still can not rule out a few flurries or liquid sprinkles getting shaken out of the low clouds late tonight. This will occur as the upper low over Ontario will track swd along the axis of Lake MI.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the plains to continue to build eastward into the ArkLaTex with northwest winds around 5 mph. Temperatures through the short term to range from highs in the mid to upper 50s today with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.
1246 AM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 Low pressure offshore will bring occasional light rain overnight, followed by a few showers in the afternoon. Clearing and colder tonight into mid week, as high pressure builds in behind a departing cold front. Temperatures will gradually warm into late week as the high weakens over the area. Low pressure will continue to move away from the US East Coast and high pressure will build across the eastern US on Tuesday.
The area remains under strong ridging aloft and the cutoff low is still slowly retrograding to our southwest. Unusual synoptic pattern with a 500 mb closed upper low over northeast Nevada this evening, retrograding to the southwest into central/southern CA by Monday afternoon. In its place a ridge axis stretches east/southeast from the eastern Pacific, across Oregon and into the central Rockies by Monday afternoon.
The upper level pattern remains very similar for Monday, but increasing winds hint that we will see deeper mixing and a bit warmer temperatures. Upper level ridging starts to push in from the west on Tuesday.
High temperatures will range from 35 to 40 today, and in the lower 40s Tuesday. Overnight surface temperatures have been holding near freezing with road pavement sensors indicating temperatures were close to 35 degrees. Warm air advection in the lower layers will begin this afternoon and cause any lingering snow showers to end by this evening. The upper air pattern will change considerably as a high zonal flow develops north of an expanding upper level ridge later this week. Most models had been holding onto colder solutions for late this week, but the latest runs have trended toward warmer temperatures.