Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fortunately the warmer south winds and clouds were keeping the temperatures above freezing in the 34 to 38 degree range and it should stay that way keeping freezing drizzle away. With the pacific air moving in, expect above normal highs today mainly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Therefore, south winds will ensue bringing back warmer air mainly along the Missouri River where some lower 50s may occur southwest of Pierre.
Cooler temperatures today as a weather system passes just north of the area.
409 AM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Latest satellite and RAP13 analyses showed the deep mid-level trough centered over the CO/UT border early this morning. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with this system had shifted south of the forecast area. The trough shifts east of the Divide by midday. Showers are expected to cease by evening with skies clearing as a short wave ridge builds over the area. Expect cooler temperatures today, with highs falling below normal for most locations and markedly colder overnight lows tonight in response to clearing. Ridging will be short lived, and the wave-train rolls on as another PacNW trough dives across the Inter-Mountain West Wednesday night.
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will be overhead for most of the day but the temperatures will again be seasonably chilly. A warm front will lift northward tonight and lead to a brief mix of snow and rain across the northern tier.
925 AM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 Canadian high pressure will drift across the region today providing fair weather and seasonably cool temperatures today. Low pressure developing in the Southern Plains will move toward the area tonight and Wednesday bringing increasing clouds today and widespread rain to the area beginning early Wednesday.
The highest winds are forecast across our northwest counties and a Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM through 6 PM this evening. Winds will quickly decrease this evening, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move through the area this evening into early Wednesday morning, bringing northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and cooler temperatures.
608 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 12Z surface observations place low pressure center near or just east of the Turtle Mountains. Fog has formed within the center of the low, especially in the southeast upslope flow in Rolette county. This fog should dissipate as the low shifts east and surface winds turn to the west/northwest. Surface temperatures have remained above freezing and with the stratus in place should remain that way this morning. Cool high pressure builds in with northwesterly surface winds.
450 AM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Latest satellite and RAP13 analyses showed the deep mid-level trough centered over the CO/UT border early this morning. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with this system had shifted south of the forecast area. The trough shifts east of the Divide by midday. Showers are expected to cease by evening with skies clearing as a short wave ridge builds over the area. Expect cooler temperatures today, with highs falling below normal for most locations and markedly colder overnight lows tonight in response to clearing. Ridging will be short lived, and the wave-train rolls on as another PacNW trough dives across the Inter-Mountain West Wednesday night.
329 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 A strong upper level trough is digging into the Four Corners region with a deepening low centered over western Kansas. Meanwhile, more robust convection back along the cold front will build into southwest Missouri tonight before moving into southern sections of the forecast area in the pre-dawn hours. As we move into Wednesday, much of the overnight precipitation is expected to move east of the area before the cold front itself sweeps through the region later in the day.
507 AM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 Upper ridging will dominate the short term across the southeast as the larger scale pattern begins to transition to a more progressive flow across the US. At the surface, high pressure transits across the Mid atlantic states and begins to wedge into the state resulting in winds shifting to the NE through Tuesday AM.
304 AM PST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will be over the area today.
The higher amounts are dependent on a brief period of moderate to heavy snow.
217 AM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Another seasonal day for the area today with high pressure overhead, partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the lower to middle 40s most places.
A very pleasant day is in store for east central FL as high pressure and associated dry air builds toward the area. N/NE winds this morning will become E by the mid afternoon as ridge axis begins to sink towards south FL. (modified prev) High pressure over the eastern US will shift slightly eastward today, veering N/NE winds to E into the afternoon.
134 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 It was a rather pleasant morning but temperatures have been slowly warming back up and will top out in the the upper 70s and lower 80s as mid-level ridging builds over the area. High temps will be 3-5 degrees above average on Wednesday with most of us reaching the lower 80s.
1237 PM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Upper level ridge is allowing for lee side pressure falls and increasing SW-W winds along the foothills today. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge will keep our cwa dry through tonight. Trof approaching the PacNW coast will move thru the northern Rockies and give us a chance of rain/snow showers from late Wednesday morning thru the evening.
Out ahead of this cold front models show a ribbon of modest MUCAPE of 400-700 J/Kg as well as bulk shear values of 50-60kts. Showers will come to an end tomorrow morning, as the upper level trough which by this time will have developed a closed low in the base of the trough will move slowly across the CWA. Modest cold air advection behind the cold front tomorrow will cool high temperatures into the 40s with temperatures being relatively flat through the day tomorrow.
Mid afternoon surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from MN southward across western IA, far southeast NE and then southwest from there across KS. With the closed low expected to track to just southeast of Kansas City by daybreak Wednesday and then into IL Wednesday afternoon, we will see some some impacts (probably minor) from the northwest edge of the deformation zone. Light precipitation, possibly drizzle or freezing drizzle, could linger past daybreak Wednesday but should be ending by 9 to 10 am in southwest IA. Highs should only reach back into the lower and mid 40s, with north or northwest winds.
148 PM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Last night's system has propagated east of the Divide with the center of the low circulating over southeast Colorado early this afternoon. Quick ridge of high pressure slides overhead on Wednesday, providing a break in precipitation between systems. Though, by Wednesday afternoon, the next PacNW trough will already be digging into the western CONUS and push the ridge axis east of the Divide. A low pressure trough will barrel through the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, but lose steam as it arrives on the western slope as a positively tilted trough. The trough looks to open up with an associated cold front moving through Thanksgiving Day.
221 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure over the region will move off the coast tonight.
Additionally, a cold front will be sent through the area. Behind the front cooler air will also be advected into the area resulting in overnight lows down near freezing on the Caprock.
However, more robust convection is still expected to develop ahead of the cold front over southwestern MO and slide east across southern portions of forecast area late tonight due to strong dynamics with low level bulk shear in excess of 60 kts. By daybreak Wednesday, expect a brief break in activity, then cold front will begin to slide through forecast area.
Latest satellite and RAP13 analyses showed the deep mid-level trough centered over the CO/UT border early this morning. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with this system had shifted south of the forecast area. The trough shifts east of the Divide by midday. Showers are expected to cease by evening with skies clearing as a short wave ridge builds over the area. Expect cooler temperatures today, with highs falling below normal for most locations and markedly colder overnight lows tonight in response to clearing. Ridging will be short lived, and the wave-train rolls on as another PacNW trough dives across the Inter-Mountain West Wednesday night.
1053 AM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Latest satellite and RAP13 analyses showed the deep mid-level trough centered over the CO/UT border early this morning. Meanwhile, the cold front associated with this system had shifted south of the forecast area. The trough shifts east of the Divide by midday. Showers are expected to cease by evening with skies clearing as a short wave ridge builds over the area. Expect cooler temperatures today, with highs falling below normal for most locations and markedly colder overnight lows tonight in response to clearing. Ridging will be short lived, and the wave-train rolls on as another PacNW trough dives across the Inter-Mountain West Wednesday night.
Previous discussion: An upper trof will be moving east today with slight ridging developing over Montana. Some low cloud and fog has moved into the northeast corner of the state with high pressure this morning, but should clear the region by the afternoon. An upper low in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast today and tonight, pushing a trof into the northern Rockies by Wednesday. This trof will bring a cold front south from Canada, with cold air advection and instability. This may be enough to mix out the inversion and bring stronger winds to the surface, at least for the higher terrain areas on Wednesday.
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Today's weather will feature a cold November rain for the daytime hours as an upper trough emerges from the Rockies and crosses the plains. Cold air advects south across the plains today behind a cold front and fropa will be marked by increasing north winds with gusts around 30 mph gradually falling temperatures. Models have been consistent with Thanksgiving Day temperatures averaging near the 50 degree mark for highs, but a progressing upper trough and an associated cold front will bring a wind shift to the north during the day.
Southerly flow was continuing to bring warmer air into the area both at the surface and aloft, leading to change over to rain, especially in river valleys and areas south of Interstate 90. Given expected temperatures, wouldn't expect much in the way of a freezing drizzle threat, but can't completley rule out a few additional slick spots on elevated surfaces/bridges, especially if temperatures end up staying a bit lower than forecast.
Near the surface, low pressure is strengthening in southeast Colorado ahead of a cold front pushing southeast across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. The associated cold front will lead to falling temperatures in the wake of the front during the day. Expect a cold frontal passage between 18-20z with winds shifting to the north/northwest at 20-25 kts along with rain developing. If temperatures are warmer and mainly rain occurs then CIGS/VISBYS would not be reduced near as much.
/Issued 647 AM EST Tue Nov 24 2020/ Upper ridging will dominate the short term across the southeast as the larger scale pattern begins to transition to a more progressive flow across the US. At the surface, high pressure transits across the Mid atlantic states and begins to wedge into the state resulting in winds shifting to the NE through Tuesday AM.
Upper trough continues to depart the region today, with the sfc cold front through the FA. The next upper trough will arrive Wed night with a decent uptick in PAC moisture over NE WY. Breezy and cooler day expected Thanksgiving Day with mostly sunny skies.
829 AM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Building upper level ridge will bring dry wx, occasional high clouds and temps mostly in the 40s today. Lee side troffing already producing gusts over 40 mph at Big Timber, and near 30 mph at Harlowton and Livingston. JKL Another seasonal day for the area today with high pressure overhead, partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the lower to middle 40s most places.
Near the surface, low pressure is strengthening in southeast Colorado ahead of a cold front pushing southeast across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. The associated cold front will lead to falling temperatures in the wake of the front during the day. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front pushing through west central and southwest Kansas this afternoon generally after 18-20Z, potentially affecting the vicinity of all terminals.
A cold front will move in overnight, first at DRT around 03Z and then at the I-35 sites in the 06-08Z time frame.
A weak low pressure system will move east of the region today, allowing high pressure to temporarily build into the area. Benign day across Utah as the upper level low pulls away from the area. Current analysis shows a building ridge across the West. one with a slower moving, cut-off upper level low across the West and one with a more progressive trough.
137 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will be overhead for most of the day but the temperatures will again be seasonably chilly. A warm front will lift northward tonight and lead to a brief mix of snow and rain across the northern tier.
222 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 A strong upper trough moving through today has produced very windy conditions across the area. and Davis Mountains into tonight as a jet rotates through the base of the trough. With high pressure building in behind the trough look for milder conditions Wednesday.
Currently, a strong low pressure system is brewing over the Great Plains, and this system will race eastward during the next 24 hrs.
117 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
That flow will back to the southwest tonight as cutoff low pressure emerges from the Plains and amplifies ridging ovr the ern seaboard. As mentioned above, southern stream low pressure is projected to dig toward the southern Great Lakes through Wednesday.
1056 AM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
Low pressure located over the southern Plains will slowly lift northeast through the period, with minimal advection or change in airmass across our area as we see only some weak surface ridging move in from the west on Wednesday.
Winds will diminish tonight as a pre-frontal trough axis moves into the area. The pre-frontal trough will move through the area by mid-morning with light north winds expected across south Texas. Breezy to windy conditions will occur across the region today in response to the low pressure area moving east into the southern plains.
114 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure remains over the area through Wednesday.
132 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will gradually move offshore through Wednesday.
Still some lingering drizzle over far eastern SD and west central MN this morning, but temperatures are still above freezing and road reports indicate they are just wet. Farther west, the cold front has moved through the James River valley and have seen some low clouds sneak into north central SD under NW winds. Fortunately the warmer south winds and clouds were keeping the temperatures above freezing in the 34 to 38 degree range and it should stay that way keeping freezing drizzle away. With the pacific air moving in, expect above normal highs today mainly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Therefore, south winds will ensue bringing back warmer air mainly along the Missouri River where some lower 50s may occur southwest of Pierre.
1243 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 Canadian high pressure will drift across the region today providing fair weather and seasonably cool temperatures today. Low pressure developing in the Southern Plains will move toward the area tonight and Wednesday bringing increasing clouds today and widespread rain to the area beginning early Wednesday.
A warm front will lift through the area this evening. The passage looks quiet, as deep moisture will be lacking as well as upper level support under the expanding eastern CONUS ridge. Jet support, on the eastern flank of the upper low, will aid in rainfall efficiency, providing a descent soaking of the area.
358 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
151 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will gradually move offshore through Wednesday.
Regardless, warmer ground and likely wetter ground due to previous rainfall could hinder snow accumulations of what is already expected to be a wet snow. Below freezing temperatures are expected tonight as cold air surges southward through the Western High Plains, pushing the H85 0C isotherm well down into the Oklahoma Panhandle. This will result in a west-southwesterly downslope flow across western Kansas through much of the day, in turn pulling warmer air back into the area with H85 temperatures pushing up around 5-7C by mid-afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to reach up into the lower/mid 50s(F) under mostly sunny skies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front pushing through west central and southwest Kansas this afternoon generally after 18-20Z, potentially affecting the vicinity of all terminals.
Went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch for Arlington (WY Zone 110) and Bordeaux (WY Zone 106) to a Warning valid from 2 AM through 5 PM Wednesday. Confidence for strong winds impacting the I-80 Summit and foothills is lower, so the High Wind Watch remains in effect for those areas.
High pressure is situated near Williston with west to northwest winds across the area. Models are still bringing a cold front through the area Wednesday night and short range models are not consistent in any precipitation placement associated with the cold front.
In addition, DOT road maps are showing improving road conditions as surface temperatures continue to rise above freezing. The winter weather advisory remains in effect along the Highway 20 corridor and Jackson County as well as the northwest Illinois Counties. Temperatures are generally at or above freezing across the area with Cedar Rapids the cold spot at 31 degrees. Models continue to show frontogenetical forcing lifting northward through the Highway 20 corridor this morning through 15 UTC. Several rounds of rain will lift across the area through the remainder of the day as vorticity ejects out of the base of the 500 MB trough moving into the Southern High Plains.
These should decrease today as an upper ridge passes through. Drying with patchy fog and low clouds Wednesday night/Thanksgiving morning as ridging aloft returns.
Low pressure from the Southern Plains approaches during the overnight tonight and into early Wednesday allowing temperatures to continue to slowly rise keeping ptypes all rain. The low pressure center will help to keep a sustained precip shield over the area later tonight and Wednesday morning, but then a dry slot works in during the afternoon allowing rain to become more scattered. Finally, the upper low moves through during the evening time frame allowing for one last batch of rain especially for areas south of US-24.
The cold front is expected to stall across Central Alabama on Thanksgiving, becoming more diffuse but still providing enough forcing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms generally south of I-20 with the best chances south of I-85.
This low will quickly lift into the Midwest on Wednesday afternoon with a trailing cold front draped south.
Breezy to windy conditions will occur across the region today in response to the low pressure area moving east into the southern plains.
Pressure gradient will remain tight through the short term as a high pressure begins to move east of the DelMarVA Peninsula.
Southerly flow was continuing to bring warmer air into the area both at the surface and aloft, leading to change over to rain, especially in river valleys and areas south of Interstate 90. Given expected temperatures, wouldn't expect much in the way of a freezing drizzle threat, but can't completely rule out a few additional slick spots on elevated surfaces/bridges, especially if temperatures end up staying a bit lower than forecast.
The upper level low continues to move through southern Kansas this afternoon and into Missouri tonight. The northwest will get into the lower 20s with upper 20s where the clouds hold on the longest in the southeast.
Quiet weather conditions continue tonight, but a cold front dragging through tomorrow brings very light snowfall and some breezy afternoon winds, but impacts will be minimal.
Light snow and freezing drizzle will continue to move out of the region this evening leading to a quiet but cloudy day Wednesday. Sufficient ice aloft and just cool enough temperatures have allowed most of the region to stay in a predominant snow precipitation type, with drizzle or freezing drizzle at times mixing in when ice crystal loss becomes sufficient enough. Temperatures will fall below freezing overnight and with wet roads there could be a risk for slick surfaces and black ice tonight. A 300 mb ridge will provide the area with weak high pressure into Wednesday but will stay cloudy for the most part.
South winds are already gusting up to 30 mph in some areas, and guidance indicates 925mb winds will strengthen further overnight and reach up to 50-60 kts by 12Z as an area of low pressure in the Plains moves into the Midwest. Once precip moves in from the west tomorrow morning, this may act to strengthen the low level inversion some and thus lower the surface winds, but LLJ will remain quite strong through early afternoon. Some models such as the HRRR continue to move the morning activity out quickly, with showers and storms redeveloping along a narrow instability axis just ahead of the main cold front Wednesday afternoon.
Dry weather and warmer temps can be expected on Wed. Highs should mostly be in the lower to mid 50s over the plains, with 40s in the high valleys and Teller County.
926 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure continues across the outlook area tonight.
As winds pick up out of the south, they should help scour out the low stratus and fog. High pressure is starting to build into the area behind the cold front that is departing the area. High pressure crosses the area tonight and slides east tomorrow, as another upper trough moves into the Pacific NW and split flow, northern stream ridge axis shifts east. This low will drag a cold front across the Dakotas late Wednesday afternoon and through Wednesday night. As the cold front pushes across the area Wednesday night, will see winds again switch around to the northwest and may briefly become gusty, if we can mix into the stronger winds aloft.
634 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
213 PM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Dry conditions prevail through tonight as high pressure shifts east across the region.
256 PM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Upper level ridge is allowing for lee side pressure falls and increasing SW-W winds along the foothills today. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge will keep our cwa dry through tonight. Trof approaching the PacNW coast will move thru the northern Rockies and give us a chance of rain/snow showers from late Wednesday morning thru the evening.
301 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 (Issued 301 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020) Tonight and Wednesday: Low pressure will continue to lift northeast into central IL tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures near freezing early this afternoon is giving southern Wisconsin some sleet and rain/sleet mix at times. The rain chances and fog are expected to gradually diminish through the day on Wednesday as the system pushes east and an upper level ridge builds into the region. Patterson (Issued 301 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020) Wednesday night through Tuesday: Light rain showers may linger into the evening hours on Wednesday as the low pressure system moves northeastward over Lake Michigan.
High pressure will continue to build into the area through tonight. Strong high pressure will follow, keeping a dry pattern in place.