Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak upper low continues to drift southwest and is now over TX/LA, with a SFC/LL high set up over the mid-south. Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft continues to exert its influence over Middle Tennessee.
1121 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Current surface analysis shows slow moving cold front from north central to southwest SD and into southeast WY. Upper level analysis shows trough along the Pacific NW coast, with southwest flow across the western US into the high plains. Ridge has shifted to the east of the area. Cooler and slightly drier air will allow temps to drop to the upper 50s to mid 60s in most areas by Sunday morning. However, humidities will stay on the higher side as dewpoints look to be in the upper 50s and 60s.
259 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Severe weather threat is mostly south and west of Lower Michigan next couple days - Showers and thunderstorms possible July 4th - Turning cooler late in the week The upper ridge axis shifts east then is flattened as troughing over eastern Canada expands southward by the end of the week. Typical summer weather pattern early in the week with convection topping the ridge axis and moving south/southeast and for the most part missing Lower Michigan. Expect cooler weather to return by the end of the week.
1257 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Typical summertime upper level ridging is established across much of the Central/Southern Plains into the desert southwest. The exception is across the Northern Plains on the norther periphery of the ridging, where several thunderstorm complexes have dove southeast through the Mississippi Valley the last few days. A cold front will slowly sag into northwest Nebraska tonight as the ridge weakens and begins to flatten slightly. The upper ridge begins to break down and flatten further Sunday, allowing a cold front to slowly move southward across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills.
Late in the afternoon, convection allowing models are showing an MCS moving into the western forecast area, riding around the upper high to the west.
307 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An elongated mid/upper ridge was situated across the CONUS stretching from the Southwest states towards the Middle Mississippi Valley area. H85 temperatures are also progged to decrease with weak easterly mid/upper flow on the southern periphery of the mid/upper ridge supporting a subtle decrease in the recent heat.
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area this overnight.
254 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A ridge of high pressure continued over the region overnight with mostly clear skies and dry conditions. The upper ridge extending across the CONUS will continue to breakdown today as a closed low in central Canada progresses east. As this occurs, a cold front is expected to slowly advance south through Nebraska, stalling northwest of the region. High pressure is anticipated to maintain itself aloft, spanning from the desert southwest to the Midwest, as temperatures climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
Expect scattered showers/storms, primarily over the central and south, as another disturbance moves around the periphery of the upper low currently over east Texas.
207 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A cold front will move south of the forecast area overnight. High pressure will build over the region on Sunday. A cold front will move south across the forecast area overnight. High pressure will briefly build over the region on Sunday bringing dry, clear and cooler conditions.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today in the 87-91 degree range for highs. Updated at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 To begin the new work week, an upper ridge axis will extend northeast over the Ohio Valley.
Expect most of this activity to shift east of our CWA with the next few hours and main instability axis eventually shift south as cold front moves over our CWA. Despite cold frontal passage air mass will still support above normal temps and ironically due to clearing we will actually be warmer than yesterday (when convection busted our potentially hot day).
The main upper low is now in southern Texas. With the flow around the upper low, individual activity will be sliding west.
NAM suggests SBCAPEs in excess of 3500J/kg across Iowa into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin this afternoon, which will help energize the storms as they track along the N/NE periphery of a strong upper ridge centered over the Plains. Before the storms arrive, it will be another hot and humid day with highs once again topping out in the lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to middle 70s.
313 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 06Z surface data has a warm front running from southern Minnesota into northern Illinois and Indiana. Current mcs across northern Minnesota has been turning south but having difficulty as it runs into warmer air aloft. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the high moisture levels in the atmosphere. After midnight there may or may not be some isolated showers or storms develop in the highway 20 corridor.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Baja NE into the Central Plains, where it has been anchored the past few days. This has kept the low-lvl thermal ridge axis well to the west of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, sparing the area of warmer temperatures. To the east, the inverted trough has made it into the Lone Star State, and is currently pushing a line of convection thru the I-10 corridor of central Texas. Long-range models begin diverging on solutions w/the trough by midweek or so, but it looks like the trough minors out by the end of the work week.
1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Large scale flow not changed a whole lot over the last 24hrs with a well amplified ridge in control over the central CONUS with an upstream positive tilt trough extending from British Columbia to off the the western U. Thunderstorms are progged to form along a inverted surface trof extending from low pressure over northeast CO.
Overall, the expectation is that the high/ridge will become somewhat over the next couple of days thanks to embedded disturbances in the mean flow traversing southern Canada.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies. Morning lows should be mostly in the low 70s, with a few upper 60s near the Tennessee River. High temperatures should climb into the low 90s across most of the area with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s. Over the next few days, a broad fairly weak ridge will shift out of the Plains over the Eastern US.
318 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Conditions remain warm and humid across the east on the east side of a frontal boundary, while slight cooler temps can be found west of the front.
141 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area this evening. Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60's north to the low 70's south and west. Highs tomorrow will range from around 90 northeast to the low 90's elsewhere. High humidity, however, will work in combination with the higher temperatures to produce heat indices in the triple digits.
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper ridging continues to prevail today across west central Nebraska, though with the approach of a PAC NW trough, the ridge is showing signs of becoming less amplified. For comparison, NW Neb will only manage the lower 80s this afternoon while our far southern counties will once again flirt with triple digit heat.
142 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A cold front will settle south through the forecast area this overnight.
/issued 318 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ A mid-level low across the Arklatex will continue to slowly drift to the southwest around the southeastern periphery of a mid-level ridge located across the High Plains. Scattered storms on the northwest periphery of the low will continue to affect southeast Oklahoma (Bryan and Atoka counties) through the late afternoon/early evening hours.
355 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An upper low, located over the southeast Texas coastal region early this morning, progd to continue drifting slowly west, then northward over then next 48 hours. As the associated thermal trough progresses over the region, scattered thunderstorms still looks probable.
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler temperatures and less humidity with small precipitation chances highlight the short term forecast. Although we didn't realize our high temperatures yesterday, it will noticeably cooler south, and less humid across the forecast area today. The cold front has pushed through the forecast area and high pressure will be in place at the surface across the area today.
High pressure dominates the atmospheric column thru the entirety of the short term forecast period, while the active jet stream stays to our north.
/issued 432 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low over Southeast Texas will drift west toward Central Texas late today into tonight. As the low moves closer to the area today, isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly for areas south of Interstate 20. Highs today will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
/issued 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ Isolated showers continue to develop around the western edge of an upper level trof that is spinning nearly overhead this morning as evidenced by observed storm motion. At the surface, prevailing high pressure is resulting in calm winds with the saturated ground allowing for another round of patchy light fog development. The upper trof is progged to continue slowly retrograding westward into east Texas through the day with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous across the region by late morning with the addition of daytime heating. Previous runs were in agreement on drier mid layer air wrapping around the eastern side of the upper trof as it continues into central Texas which would yield lower overall convective coverage.
Today, temperatures are forecast to rise to the low to mid 80s in Western Montana, while upper 80s to around 90 are anticipated in the low elevations of Riggins, Orofino.
329 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Mid- and high-level moisture from the remnants of Alvin will remain over our area today bringing a slight chance of showers to the higher elevations and a slight chance for sprinkles in some of the valleys. This moisture looks to remain in the mid-to-high levels of the atmosphere - while the lower levels remain dry - much like yesterday. As a result, there is potential for sprinkles, particularly in the higher elevations, along the Interstate 15 corridor between late- morning and early-afternoon. Wind looks to be the primary aspect of interest with breezy south- southwesterly winds building in late-morning between 10 and 15 kts with locally higher speeds in the higher terrain.
539 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Strong ridging aloft stretches across the Four Corners to the central Great Plains. Deep southwest flow above the ridge continues from the California Pacific Coast through the Great Basin into the northern High Plains.
621 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An MCS has developed over northern Minnesota and is riding the mid and upper level ridge southeastward into eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Considerable uncertainty exists in exactly how this system will track and evolve through the remainder of the morning and today as it begins to dive southward after cresting the upper level ridge. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. By Monday the upper level high will be center near the Missouri-Iowa border and this should effectively keep convection at bay to our north along the frontal zone.
Mid level ridge is south of the area and results in a mean steering flow (1000-500mb) from the west at about 5-10 kt per RAP analysis. Guidance and latest HRRR still suggest scattered coverage today and if some changes are to be made to the updated forecast may tweak POPs down slightly given slightly drier conditions in the low levels and NAM sounding showing weak subsidence inversion and resulting lower instabilty values.
759 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today and Monday.
Cooler temperatures and less humidity with small precipitation chances highlight the short term forecast. Although we didn't realize our high temperatures yesterday, it will noticeably cooler south, and less humid across the forecast area today. The cold front has pushed through the forecast area and high pressure will be in place at the surface across the area today.
High temperatures will be into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s. A large upper level ridge remained over the Central Plains and extended into the Midwest. For the third consecutive day, this high had helped suppress/limit convection yesterday in a large area of deep layer subsidence that extended into Indiana. Concern for heat illnesses with temperatures rising into the lower 90s combined with heat indices rising to near 95, so will continue to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. An upper level disturbance will top the upstream ridge tonight and should track southwest across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes and into the Midwest tonight.
604 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The upper level ridge remains in place across the central plains, but will begin to show the first signs of weakening today as the 500 mb heights will begin to fall some. Thunderstorms will again form on the periphery of the upper ridge across western Nebraska by late afternoon and evening, but these should again remain northwest of our forecast area. The upper level ridge will flatten out and a more zonal jet stream pattern is expected, which will result in slightly cooler and more normal temperatures for this time of year.
06Z surface data has a warm front running from southern Minnesota into northern Illinois and Indiana. Current mcs across northern Minnesota has been turning south but having difficulty as it runs into warmer air aloft. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the high moisture levels in the atmosphere. After midnight there may or may not be some isolated showers or storms develop in the highway 20 corridor.
404 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An MCS has developed over northern Minnesota and is riding the mid and upper level ridge southeastward into eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Considerable uncertainty exists in exactly how this system will track and evolve through the remainder of the morning and today as it begins to dive southward after cresting the upper level ridge. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. By Monday the upper level high will be center near the Missouri-Iowa border and this should effectively keep convection at bay to our north along the frontal zone.
Strong mid level ridge extends from the Plains into the Upper MS VLY with sharp northwest flow over the Ohio Valley. Tonight should be dry as what remains of the upper ridge holds across the lower Ohio Valley.
/issued 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ An upper low, located over the southeast Texas coastal region early this morning, progd to continue drifting slowly west, then northward over then next 48 hours. As the associated thermal trough progresses over the region, scattered thunderstorms still looks probable.
/EC/ Slight mid/upper level troughing will extend into northern portions of the ArkLaMiss today and this could help to focus diurnally driven convective precipitation over north central MS as we go into the afternoon.
319 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Strong ridging aloft stretches across the Four Corners to the central Great Plains. Deep southwest flow above the ridge continues from the California Pacific Coast through the Great Basin into the northern High Plains.
Confidence is low on coverage, but region of steep mid level lapse rates/good instability ahead of cold front still supports possible strong to isolated severe storm development across southeast ND or west central MN. Expect most of this activity to shift east of our CWA with the next few hours and main instability axis eventually shift south as cold front moves over our CWA. Despite cold frontal passage air mass will still support above normal temps and ironically due to clearing we will actually be warmer than yesterday (when convection busted our potentially hot day).
417 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The upper level ridge remains in place across the central plains, but will begin to show the first signs of weakening today as the 500 mb heights will begin to fall some. Thunderstorms will again form on the periphery of the upper ridge across western Nebraska by late afternoon and evening, but these should again remain northwest of our forecast area. The upper level ridge will flatten out and a more zonal jet stream pattern is expected, which will result in slightly cooler and more normal temperatures for this time of year.
High pressure will settle south into the Great Lakes today bringing a more stable airmass. Tonight should be dry as what remains of the upper ridge holds across the lower Ohio Valley.
An elongated ridge of high pressure extends from the central Great Plains south and westward through New Mexico. A combination of ample moisture return on the west side of the Great Plains high pressure, as well as forcing from the remnants of Alvin, will result in fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms today into the evening hours across all portions of the western slope. Subtle height falls aloft as well as lingering above- average PWAT values will help support another day of localized downpours in the high country. Overall in the short term, have hedged PoP values on the higher end of the spectrum of guidance given good signals for precipitation.
Quieter conditions can be expected for Monday as heights build over the region, before a late day cold front drops in out of the north.
RAP shows less upper support (mid level vort lobes) than yesterday so less cloudiness initially and a later start to convection will produce warmer, more seasonable temps in the lower 90s. Weak high pressure ridge axis has slipped south across our far southern waters early this morning resulting in light south flow offshore the Treasure coast and SW flow over the Brevard and Volusia waters.
Conditions remain warm and humid across the east on the east side of a frontal boundary, while slight cooler temps can be found west of the front. May see precipitation linger across the south into Monday morning as well before chances lessen considerably as weak high pressure settles in. Highs today will be mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Monday night will feature the potential for continued showers and storms that will be slowly sinking to our southeast, with the stationary front doing the same and becoming less organized at least temporarily, before the next trough nears from the west.
Today Through Monday Night Early this morning, a cutoff upper level low was located over east Texas, with a strengthening ridge over the Central Plains. As the upper low continues to slowly retrograde, more disturbances will move up around the periphery of the low through this evening. This will interact with daytime heating and the high low level humidity, with afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Expect more of the same on Monday, as the low slows down between the ridge to the west/north and a ridge approaching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Eventually, the low will dampen out and get absorbed in the mean flow as the western ridge breaks down and the longwave pattern leaves the gulf open for business.
1053 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Morning observations continue to show us in between a strong low across the Northeast CONUS, ridging across the Great Plains, and a cutoff low retrograding across TX and the Lower Mississippi. A surface cold front will approach the area this afternoon from the north/northeast and will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area, primarily across NE TN and SW VA. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 94 74 / 30 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 92 70 / 30 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 93 70 / 30 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 89 65 / 40 20 10 10.
431 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Mid- and high-level moisture from the remnants of Alvin will remain over our area today bringing a slight chance of showers to the higher elevations and a slight chance for sprinkles in some of the valleys. This moisture looks to remain in the mid-to-high levels of the atmosphere - while the lower levels remain dry - much like yesterday. As a result, there is potential for sprinkles, particularly in the higher elevations, along the Interstate 15 corridor between late- morning and early-afternoon. Wind looks to be the primary aspect of interest with breezy south- southwesterly winds building in late-morning between 10 and 15 kts with locally higher speeds in the higher terrain.
432 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 (Today and Tonight) An upper level low over Southeast Texas will drift west toward Central Texas late today into tonight. As the low moves closer to the area today, isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly for areas south of Interstate 20. Highs today will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
It is muggy already, and we are on our way to the low 90s with heat indices around 100. Weak high pressure at the surface continues to influence the weather across Middle Tennessee, while we find ourselves in a col in the 500 mb pattern.
655 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An elongated mid/upper ridge was situated across the CONUS stretching from the Southwest states towards the Middle Mississippi Valley area. H85 temperatures are also progged to decrease with weak easterly mid/upper flow on the southern periphery of the mid/upper ridge supporting a subtle decrease in the recent heat. high temperatures are expected to range from the lower 90s along and east of the Flint Hills to the mid and upper 90s across our central KS counties. Highs will continue to trend down on Mon as the mid/upper ridge begins to break down across the area. Southerly winds and mostly clear skies expected today with upper ridging still in place.
High pressure aloft will gradually build east from the Plains into the mid MS River and lower OH River Valleys during the short term. However, a new fly in the ointment comes with the possibility of an MCS rotating southward around the eastern periphery of the high this afternoon and early evening. The upper high will build east over the region Monday.
641 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper ridging continues to prevail today across west central Nebraska, though with the approach of a PAC NW trough, the ridge is showing signs of becoming less amplified. For comparison, NW Neb will only manage the lower 80s this afternoon while our far southern counties will once again flirt with triple digit heat. Temperatures Monday will be slightly cooler owing to increased cloud cover and the location of the front.
707 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Aviation - Severe weather threat is mostly south and west of Lower Michigan next couple days - Showers and thunderstorms possible July 4th - Turning cooler late in the week The upper ridge axis shifts east then is flattened as troughing over eastern Canada expands southward by the end of the week. Typical summer weather pattern early in the week with convection topping the ridge axis and moving south/southeast and for the most part missing Lower Michigan. Expect cooler weather to return by the end of the week.