Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
KAMA should maintain some higher surface winds and be displaced from the low level jet that LLWS should not be a problem. Friday through Saturday night look to feature quasi zonal flow aloft with south-southwesterly surface winds today and west- southwesterly winds Saturday as weak lee troughing occurs to our north and northwest.
137 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure to the north will provide cooler and drier air into the weekend.
A dry cold front is forecast to move into northwest Oklahoma Saturday afternoon.
Low-amplitude ridging aloft will provide plenty of subsidence. After a chilly start to the day Saturday in the 30s and lower 40s, increasing southerly breezes 10 to 15 mph and plentiful insolation in the afternoon will bring warmer high temperatures into the lower-mid 70s west of I-35. A brief warmup is expected Saturday with afternoon highs rebounding into the mid-upper 60s across North Texas and the low 70s over Central Texas.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with northerly winds around 10kts and mostly clear skies as high pressure build into the area.
1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Early this morning, warm air advection-induced mid level stratus persists along and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
However, current highs and lows are actually close to normal across much of the lower elevations.
upper level ridging will shift east of the region this evening, with broad troughing expected overnight into Saturday. The upper level trough is forecast to swing across northern Colorado and into the Central Plains tomorrow. This will send a cold front south across the Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will warm nicely, with mid 60s over the Plains.
Warmer. With light surface winds tonight, lows will continue to be cooler than usual, but warmer than lows this morning. (Saturday night through next Friday) Upper level short wave will move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region Saturday evening, and will send the next cold front south across the area Saturday night.
Hence, confidence in a warning is not high enough to upgrade the high wind watch at this time and will defer to later shifts.
253 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Main forecast challenge is the approaching cold front and how much it will affect temperatures tonight, and how strong the associated west winds will blow tonight. Expecting mostly cloudy skies to dampen high temperatures tomorrow behind the cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Warmer temperatures can be expected on Saturday with strengthening south-southwesterly winds after passage of a weak warm front. A deepening upper level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region Saturday night and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area. Any precipitation will be well north-northeast of the forecast area where better upper level forcing will exist ahead of the upper level trough.
A breezy north wind continues to keep things on the cooler side but overall conditions are pleasant for late October.
245 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft under an upper ridge centered over Mexico. Thicknesses increase even more under the ridge Saturday, adding 5-10 degrees to this afternoon's.
1033 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure will bring cool air and light winds to central and southeast Illinois today.
This will continue to provide cooler than average temperatures for our region. A trough moving over the northern central plains tomorrow will cause the winds to shift from a north-northeasterly direction to a more southerly direction towards to end of the near term. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 40s inland and in the low to upper 50s along the coast. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
Model progs of the 850mb thermal trough would suggest a gradual clearing this evening with our eastern counties remaining mostly cloudy through sunset. Clear skies overnight will result in ample radiational cooling with Saturday morning mins ranging from the low to mid 30s across the CWA. Look for highs in the low to mid 60s for most.
Have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning in view of this.
The lake impacts will diminish this evening as the high builds in and wind regime trends light/variable.
1107 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE Relatively light sw-wly flow aloft at 17Z to become nwly and strengthen by 31/12Z, especially over the Sangre de Cristo mts while surface lee trough deepens.
Surface ridging and clear skies will yield prime radiational conditions. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 64 49 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 62 47 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 62 47 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 60 41 59 28 / 0 0 0 10 0.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ High pressure at the sfc and near-zonal flow atop the upper ridge continue to be in place across the region this aftn. The upper trof will deepen and bring a reinforcing shot of cool air, which will begin to intrude into our area Saturday night.
By late Saturday morning, winds are forecast increase out of the south ahead of a dry cold front forecast to move into the region Saturday night.
VFR with light and variable winds as high pressure settles across the region. Winds will start to take on an easterly component Saturday as the high slides east and moisture slowly returns to the lower levels.
Low-amplitude ridging aloft will provide plenty of subsidence. After a chilly start to the day Saturday in the 30s and lower 40s, increasing southerly breezes 10 to 15 mph and plentiful insolation in the afternoon will bring warmer high temperatures into the lower-mid 70s west of I-35.
Have also added a mention of sprinkles/flurries during the afternoon and evening, as the weak lift looks sufficient to generate very light precipitation as the trough passes.
Along the Bighorn mountain foothills, Sheridan could see a period of gusty 30 to 45 mph) downslope winds late this afternoon and early evening ahead of the approaching cold front. The aforementioned cold front arrives early this evening and pushes through the area by midnight, with winds turning northwest, producing wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Expect cooler conditions for Saturday with gusty post frontal winds.
149 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 A cold front will continue to move south of the area through the rest of the day, with cooler and drier air making for a very nice afternoon area-wide. Really nice weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure building along the eastern seaboard.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): One more slightly cooler than average night will occur tonight before temperatures rise to seasonal averages for Saturday and Saturday night.
Tonight a trough axis will move out of eastern Colorado with a low level jet intensifying ahead of it from Liberal to Hays. Short term models are showing a layer of warmer air coming out of eastern Colorado as well so kept temperatures tonight a little warmer with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Took out the fog development along the trough axis from Garden City to Liberal but it will be an area to monitor to see if fog can develop in the narrow area of lighter winds. Saturday an upper level trough will bring in a cold front during the day as winds will switch to the north and increase to 20-35 mph during the late morning and early afternoon.
A Pacific cold front is moving southeast through the Northern Rockies this afternoon.
While temperatures will remain on the cooler side, will feel very little in the way of impacts weather wise overnight tonight. With winds expected to lessen overnight, some locations in the higher terrain and/or Southern Middle Tennessee might experience some frost, and patchy fog is possible within river valleys. The aforementioned ridge will continue to broaden over the Southeastern CONUS, leading to a zonal flow regime aloft on Saturday.
1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 (Today and tonight) Will keep Freeze Warning going through early this morning as a few observations are nearing the freezing mark. After the chilly start, warmer today with relatively light wind most of the day as low level ridge settles in over the region.
All precipitation with this system stays well to the north, and despite mostly clear skies, temperatures remain mild with most locations remaining above freezing. Around sunrise tomorrow (Saturday) a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
STP Ridge over the area this morning breaks down this evening allowing a cold front to push through the area. Along the Bighorn mountain foothills, Sheridan could see a period of gusty 30 to 45 mph) downslope winds late afternoon and early evening ahead of the cold front as well. Cold front arrives early this evening and quickly pushes through the area by midnight. Saturday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler behind the front with highs mainly in the 45 to 55 degree range.
328 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 At 19Z this afternoon a mid level trough was moving across the Pacific Northwest with downstream ridging across the northern Plains and nearly zonal flow across the central Plains. This will keep the lower boundary layer mixed across central Kansas with south to southwest winds and an increase in winds after midnight in the east. The pacific northwest mid level trough is forecast to move east out into the Plains on Saturday along with an associated frontal boundary. Lows Saturday night in the low to mid 30s are expected.
629 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Warmer temperatures can be expected on Saturday with strengthening south-southwesterly winds after passage of a weak warm front. A deepening upper level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region Saturday night and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area. Any precipitation will be well north-northeast of the forecast area where better upper level forcing will exist ahead of the upper level trough.
636 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure and mainly clear skies will continue through the period with VFR conditions.
Sub-70F dewpoint temperatures have reached the Fort Myers area with a much cooler and drier air mass over northern and central Florida. In fact, this shear line has reached the lower Straits of Florida, where it is maintaining just enough mesoscale convergence to support a line of showers over the Gulf Stream. It is slightly "cooler and drier" here than 24 hours ago, with an air temperature of 80F and a dewpoint temperature of 75F.
625 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Tonight-Saturday: Upper ridge axis is quickly translating across the area today- tonight as next upper trough moves across KS on Saturday. This trough will exit southeast KS Saturday evening.
/Issued 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ Current satellite and model analysis depicts an upper-level high centered over the Texas coastline with a ridge extending northwestward over the FA into southeast CO. By Saturday night the base of this trough is progged to skirt just north of the FA. Saturday night a cold front will move through the area dropping temperatures to around freezing or just below for the northern half of the FA, while the south will be just above freezing in the 30s.
801 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure to the north will provide cooler and drier air into the weekend.
814 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2020 02z surface analysis had low over southern SK with pre-frontal trough into central WY and cold front into central UT. Could also have some gusty winds with pre-frontal trough, especially over the lee side of the Black Hills overnight, but gradient across the Black Hills only 3-4mb with 40kt boundary layer wind, which is usually not enough to cause troubles. Hence, confidence in a warning is not high enough to upgrade the high wind watch at this time and will defer to later shifts.
Clear skies and some calm winds at times have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 40s in some locations. The aforementioned ridge will continue to broaden over the Southeastern CONUS, leading to a zonal flow regime aloft on Saturday.
The cold front has pushed through the area, and is currently located to the south of the CWA. The cold front has pushed through the area, and is currently located to the south of the CWA, leaving dry conditions tonight and into tomorrow. The cold front pushed through the local area this afternoon, and is currently to the south of the CWA.
An upper level ridge overhead will ensure these dry conditions and bring above normal temperatures along with them.
/issued 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): One more slightly cooler than average night will occur tonight before temperatures rise to seasonal averages for Saturday and Saturday night.
Lofting dust has over-performed today with visibility degradations in the lower Basin including Hermiston and Tri Cities. Temps tonight to range from just under 20 in our coldest spots (elevated valleys, mtns) to just above freezing in warmer portions of Basin.
905 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 A chilly night is in store across the entire Four State Region with overnight lows forecast in the middle 30s north to the lower 40s south. High pressure ridging at the surface is directly overhead attm which has resulted in calm winds across most locations.
A brief period of wind shear is possible across far northern Oklahoma for BVO as a 925mb jet tracks across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Late Saturday morning gusty surface winds will pick up out of the south across all sites ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late Saturday night. High pressure over the region will slide east tonight into tomorrow, resulting in an increase in south winds, especially on Saturday.
659 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure over Wisconsin will move off to the east tonight. It will be replaced by a tightening pressure gradient crossing the area as a vigorous area of low pressure enters central Manitoba. A warm front will cross the region tonight, exiting in the early morning. As the aforementioned low moves into northwest Ontario Saturday, its cold front sweeps through the area. As the cold front departs late Saturday night, a drying trend begins with mid level and surface ridging beginning to build into the area from the West.
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Water vapor satellite imagery is showing much drier air filtering into the Florida Peninsula from the northwest in the wake of the recent cold front. Overall, the forecast looks on track with sunny skies bringing slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.
High pressure remains parked over the California coast this afternoon as a storm system slides across the Pacific Northwest. The trough will remain well north of the area as it tracks east tonight into early tomorrow, but it will bring a weak and dry frontal boundary across northern Utah tonight. The Pacific ridge will rebound and amplify behind the exiting system tomorrow afternoon, bringing a quick return of dry and stable northwest flow over the area for the weekend.
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure across Texas will lead to continued cool and dry conditions under mostly clear skies. With the dry conditions in the mid-levels and a slight increase in low level moisture, there is some potential for patchy fog late Saturday night, but confidence is low as the low level moisture may not be sufficient enough.
939 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Light south winds will keep overnight lows tonight several degrees warmer, with the exception of sheltered valleys of southeast OK and western AR. While temps should remain above freezing in those areas as well, will likely see the normally colder spots dip into the mid 30s. A brief period of wind shear is possible across far northern Oklahoma for BVO as a 925mb jet tracks across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Late Saturday morning gusty surface winds will pick up out of the south across all sites ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late Saturday night. High pressure over the region will slide east tonight into tomorrow, resulting in an increase in south winds, especially on Saturday.
Upper level high is positioned just west of the California coast this afternoon with an upper level low off the Baja California coast (Rex Block setup), and will remain quasistationary for the next several days.
Guidance underperformed today, and should see additional warming tomorrow with strong southwesterly winds ahead of cold front. This wave will help to push a cold front through the area between 7 and 10 pm.
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High pressure will build, leading eventually to a sunny but still cool Saturday.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft under an upper ridge centered over Mexico. Thicknesses increase even more under the ridge Saturday, adding 5-10 degrees to this afternoon's.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Evening/ High pressure at all levels is providing nice weather across the region and this will remain the case through the weekend. Temperatures were actually a few degrees warmer than forecast this afternoon. Because of this fact, along with light return flow already beginning and a strong ridge overhead, we and surrounding offices have leaned to the warmer side of guidance for Saturday temperatures. The Saturday high temperature forecast now ranges from mid 60s in the northeast to mid 70s across the west, placing the I-35 corridor mainly in the lower 70s for afternoon highs.
At 19Z this afternoon a mid level trough was moving across the Pacific Northwest with downstream ridging across the northern Plains and nearly zonal flow across the central Plains. This will keep the lower boundary layer mixed across central Kansas with south to southwest winds and an increase in winds after midnight in the east. The pacific northwest mid level trough is forecast to move east out into the Plains on Saturday along with an associated frontal boundary. Lows Saturday night in the low to mid 30s are expected.
Went on the high side of guidance (90th percentile) for high temperatures today, especially for the western/northern cwfa. Temperatures will briefly be much cooler Sunday/Sunday night. The upper pattern for this period will start out with a high amplitude eastern NOAM trough and western ridge. The upper ridge will gradually shift east with a warming trend this week.
224 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Cold front crossing the area is readily apparent on radar imagery tonight. A few midlevel-based showers have developed from sern MT/nern WY thru nwrn SD/swrn ND near the midlevel trof axis, but with otherwise fairly dry profiles, not expecting more than a few sprinkles (if that) out of this activity. Broad 850 mb jet core of 40-50 kt and corresponding 700 mb jet of 50-70 kt overspread nwrn SD during the morning hours as 850/700 mb CAA continues behind the deep cold front. Because 700 mb jet lingers across ern portions of our area (Ziebach/Haakon) thru the aftn and 850 mb winds/low-level thermodynamic characteristics are not noticeably different there compared to farther west, have opted to expand the High Wind Warning to include those zones.
316 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure has shifted just east of the Tennessee Valley this morning, with clear conditions and calm winds allowing temperatures to slip into the lower 40s. With high pressure in control, expect plenty of sunshine once again and a warmer day as winds veer to the south. An upper-trough will shift out of the Great Lakes and into the Mid- Atlantic region tonight into Sunday morning, swinging a dry cold front through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. However, it will feel a bit chilly (despite highs in the low 60s), thanks to gusty northwest winds working to advect in this cooler air mass.
Saturday morning will start off decent, then the passage of a daytime cold front will bring a wind shift to the northwest with increasing wind speeds behind the boundary.
Southerly winds will gust to around 30 mph across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later this morning and afternoon in advance of a cold front that is slated to move through the region tonight. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler behind cold front on Sunday.
A cold front will move through Sunday, bringing windy and colder weather along with chances for light rain and snow showers through Sunday evening, primarily north of U. High pressure then moves in for the workweek, with dry conditions.
143 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Building high pressure will continue to erode cloud cover today, though unseasonably cool temperatures will continue.
Higher elevation areas will see better mixing with slightly stronger wind speeds and this will help lows up a little warmer.
Temperatures will be much warmer Saturday. As strong, cold air advection develops across the region in the wake of the cold front, northwest winds will climb into the 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. For the remainder of this time period, high pressure will be in the control of the weather. A cold front will shift through late Saturday, bringing a wind shift to northwest.
A cold front will move through the Midsouth Sunday, but moisture will be very limited, so no rain is expected. After midweek, another trough will shift over the Mississippi River valley. Tonight, temperatures will be slightly warmer than they are currently, mainly in the mid 40s. High temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow, in the upper 50s to low 60s.
215 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure will build in through early Sunday.
High pressure influences will keep winds light and skies clear across all sites tonight and through Saturday morning.
244 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Cooler temperatures expected across the region today in the wake of a system that moved to our east yesterday.
1245 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Building high pressure will continue to erode cloud cover today, though unseasonably cool temperatures will continue.
A cold front is working its way through the area this evening, extending from the Boise Mountains to just east of Mountain Home to the middle of Owyhee County as of 8:30 pm MDT. Saturday will be cooler and dry, and a warm up will start Sunday. At 2 PM MDT the cold front was just entering our northern CWA boundary, not in the high-cloud band already in eastern Idaho. Clearing late tonight, then sunny and cooler Sunday.
High pressure remains parked over the California coast this afternoon as a storm system slides across the Pacific Northwest. The trough will remain well north of the area as it tracks east tonight into early tomorrow, but it will bring a weak and dry frontal boundary across northern Utah tonight. The Pacific ridge will rebound and amplify behind the exiting system tomorrow afternoon, bringing a quick return of dry and stable northwest flow over the area for the weekend. A weak trough is on track to approach the Baja coast late Saturday/early Sunday.
This could mean warmer low temperatures but that would depend on just when the clouds actually clear. So for now I have left the low temperatures alone. - Brief shot of lake enhanced snow showers late Sunday Sharp thermal trough with 850 mb temps plunging to minus 10C or lower Sunday afternoon and evening. SOme rain will mix in near the shore because of the warmer lake temps near the surface.
1130 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Tonight-Saturday: Upper ridge axis is quickly translating across the area today- tonight as next upper trough moves across KS on Saturday. This trough will exit southeast KS Saturday evening.
303 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Early morning analysis showed a pretty potent low pressure system over southern Canada with an associated cold front stretching southwest across North Dakota and into northwestern South Dakota. Otherwise, said strong southerly flow will lead to warmer air working into the area and highs topping out mainly in the 50s, though a few spots could make a run at 60 degrees. Southerly to westerly surface flow will usher in warmer air, meaning that "cold snap" on Sunday will be pretty short lived.
Ahead of the front, breezy southwest winds may gust over 30 knots at times during the mid to late morning hours before diminishing as the prefrontal trough axis approaches.