Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1121 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 For the 19/06Z TAF period, flight conditions will be rapidly deteriorating through this TAF period as low cigs gradually spread eastward ahead of an advancing upper level trough and cold front. /issued 1002 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Low and mid-level clouds have nearly overtaken all of the region this evening as moisture continues to increase ahead of our next cold front.
A cold front will pass through on Saturday afternoon and carry isolated thunderstorms along its boundary. Following the passage of the cold front, northwesterly winds will prevail along with MVFR conditions as a BKN cloud layer around 2,000ft lingers around through Saturday evening. Otherwise, still expect sct shra to begin developing later tonight, followed by increasing coverage tomorrow in advance of a cold front. Rainfall totals will probably average 1/2-1" across the region, but also woun't be overly surprised to see a few localized swaths of 1-4" amounts in association with the heavier downpours as some of the hires guidance depicts south of the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor with sufficient forcing.
253 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Upper ridge and drier air over the mid-south will vacate later today ahead of an incoming upper trough. This upper trough/deeper moisture axis will keep moving east, crossing the mid-state tonight.
A weak upper level trough will pass through the region tonight. Most of Saturday should be dry as the trough moves east.
345 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 Increasing clouds and seasonably mild temperatures today as the upper flow turns southwesterly ahead of trough/short wave digging into the Mississippi Valley.
Nevertheless thermal profiles suggest mainly snow nw and rain se where relatively warm boundary layer temps will be found within low level thermal ridge. Primary feature of interest is with secondary clipper disturbance digging through base of upper trough Mon with period of decent isentropic upglide inferred within band of mid level fgen. Thereafter brief ridging sfc and aloft follows Tue-Wed with mild/dry wx ahead of first true arctic cold front blast Wed night which lingers through Christmas if not longer.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently moving east through TX early this morning. A cold front is also moving south through our forecast area, turning winds to the north, and bringing cooler/drier air south. Low clouds, along with some patchy fog, has developed south of the front in the warmer more humid air mass. As the upper level trough moves east, and the front interacts with deeper moisture in our southeastern counties, a few showers will be possible, mainly east of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today with highs mainly in the mid/upper 50s, although a few locations could see highs around 60. Tonight, lows will be much cooler than current temperatures with most locations dropping to around freezing under clear skies and light winds.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s expected over most of the forecast area, upper 30s to around 40 closer to and along the coast.
Surface map shows a ridge over the eastern Dakotas, with a trough to the northwest.
/Issued 207 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Cold front currently moving east and south across the eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas Panhandles into the northwest Texas Panhandle will continue moving through the remainder of the forecast area into early evening. A positively-tilted upper trough across the central Plains states into the southwestern states and southern Rockies will move across the Panhandles through tonight into early Saturday. Models are trending much drier with the upper trough and have backed off considerably on any precip chances tonight confining precip mainly to the higher terrain and mountains of Colorado and New Mexico.
1100 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Tranquil and dry conditions are expected through Saturday as an extensive north/south ridge of high pressure builds east and over the state.
217 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure will gradually push off of the east coast Saturday.
Temperatures have remained mainly steady if not rising the last couple of hours as a warm front starts to push into the western Dakotas. The cold front has pushed well southeast of the area this afternoon.
One upper level trough, located over western Kansas at 00z Saturday, will move into the Mississippi Valley today as another upper level wave exits the Rockies and moves out into the Western High Plains.
Otherwise, cooler air continues to filter down with current temps in the mid 60s across the entire island chain. The greatest concentration of clouds is occurring over the Lower Keys where a pseudo overrunning event is occurring. Meanwhile, closer to the Lower Keys, above 3000 feet, a southeast wind is occurring which is causing gentle upglide to occur and clouds have developed in this layer.
1124 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will gradually push off of the east coast Saturday.
923 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 A cold front is approaching the northwest corner of our forecast area at this time, and will push southeast across the area overnight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, still expect sct shra to begin developing later tonight, followed by increasing coverage tomorrow in advance of a cold front. Rainfall totals will probably average 1/2-1" across the region, but also woun't be overly surprised to see a few localized swaths of 1-4" amounts in association with the heavier downpours as some of the hires guidance depicts south of the Highway 59-Interstate 69 corridor with sufficient forcing. With this additional moisture, expecting all terminals to drop to IFR from Saturday morning through the passage of a cold front.
1033 PM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating increasing northwest flow aloft across the region, as an elongated trough across eastern Colorado this afternoon continues to translate east. Regional radars are indicating a few waning echoes over and near the higher terrain, along with a few echoes associated with the passing trough across the southeast plains at this time. Mixing associated with the system's passing cold front has helped to boost temperatures into the 30s and 40s across the plains this afternoon, with temperatures mainly 20s and 30s across the higher terrain at this time.
1233 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region through Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
1041 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move toward the area today from the western U. As this trough approaches, surface pressure falls in the plains ahead of the low will allow for a tighter surface pressure gradient across west central Texas, and gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph today. Tonight, as the upper level trough moves east through the central and southern plains, a cold front will sweep southeast through our area.
Ceilings will continue to lower over the next several hours from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas as moisture flows in from the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest. /Issued 923 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ A cold front is approaching the northwest corner of our forecast area at this time, and will push southeast across the area overnight into Saturday morning.
300 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Region on backside of upper trough moving east today as upper ridge builds in from the west.
(Today and tonight) Upper low will swing through northern Texas and southern Oklahoma this morning as surface front moves out of southeast Oklahoma. Even with abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today behind the front.
1140 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Well phased northern and southern stream positive tilt upper trofs will move eastward across the central CONUS tonight. The associated weak cold front will likewise progress southeastward with little fanfare from central across southeast Kansas.
1002 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Low and mid-level clouds have nearly overtaken all of the region this evening as moisture continues to increase ahead of our next cold front. /issued 700 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ For the 19/00Z TAF period, flight conditions will be rapidly deteriorating through this TAF period as low cigs gradually spread eastward ahead of an advancing upper level trough and cold front. Due to the SW flow and cloud cover, overnight lows tonight will range in the low 40s to low 50s.
1033 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Breezy conditions will persist overnight for KLBB and KPVW as the cold front has passed through the terminals, with winds dissipating near sunrise. /issued 240 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Positively tilted upper level trough continues to approach the region this afternoon. The axis of this trough should push to about a STL to DFW to LRD line by Saturday evening. Cold front continues to be expected into the CWFA around dinner time this evening and pushing into the Permian Basin by midnight.
Surface cold front was positioned over the far western CWA early this morning with an upper level trough axis from Wisconsin through eastern Kansas and into west Texas. Will see clouds also clear from northwest to southeast throughout the day as the front and upper trough move through. For tonight, high pressure will build in at the surface from the west and we should see temperatures drop back into the mid to upper 20s for lows.
1220 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 Cold and dry high pressure will remain over the region today.
1000 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Widespread high cloudiness has thickened up today, keeping temps from getting out of the lower 40s as of 19z. This cloudiness is streaming northeast ahead of a sharp 500 mb trough over the southern Rockies. The upper-level trough will swing eastward and then east-northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday evening. In the wake of the system, clearing is expected late Sat night over parts of southern IL and southeast MO, where lows could fall below freezing.
Overnight and into tomorrow, a weak transitory ridge will move through keeping northwesterly winds in place across the region with some off and on snow continues for the northern mountains.
Series of upper troughs from the Great Lakes through the Mississippi River Valley to move through the region Sunday pushing next surface cold front through the local area Sunday and Sunday night with best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms N of I-4.
High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest the next few days, resulting in a warming trend. Cooler, drier and breezy conditions are likely by midweek as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Northwest flow has developed in the wake of a trough that moved through the Desert Southwest yesterday. A pronounced warming trend will then begin Sunday as an anticyclone and its associated positive height anomalies build across California.
337 AM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest the next few days, resulting in a warming trend. Cooler, drier and breezy conditions are likely by midweek as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Northwest flow has developed in the wake of a trough that moved through the Desert Southwest yesterday. A pronounced warming trend will then begin Sunday as an anticyclone and its associated positive height anomalies build across California.
The axis of the upper-level trough that drove it through the area will be to our east of the area by this afternoon.
413 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 A progressive split flow pattern will prevail through over the lower 48 states through Sunday. Across the Midsouth, showers will move through the area today, ahead of an open positively-tilted southern branch trof.
Cold front will move through today, wind shift most noticeable across N AR terminals. Drier conditions expected for Sunday, with warmer temperatures compared to today.
353 AM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 Low level moisture trapped in the valleys, combined with clear skies and light winds, has brought a return of the low stratus decks with patchy fog, locally dense, and sublimation snow showers. Nothing significant as far as accumulation, but could see some icy conditions on bridges. The remainder of the forecast area is expected to be fairly quiet once we burn off the low stratus decks trapped withing the valleys.
The progressive nature of the trough and ridge features impacting the area will lead to an overall mild feel temperature wise with only a couple notably cooler periods over the upcoming week before Christmas. Overall, high temps should reach into the low to middle 40s under mainly sunny skies.
High pressure will once again expand across the area Sunday, and remain in place early in the upcoming week.
For west central Florida expect plenty of sunshine throughout the day with highs reaching the low to mid 70's for most of us. Series of upper troughs from the Great Lakes through the Mississippi River Valley to move through the region Sunday pushing next surface cold front through the local area Sunday and Sunday night with best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms N of I-4.
426 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 A progressive split flow pattern will prevail through over the lower 48 states through Sunday. Across the Midsouth, showers will move through the area today, ahead of an open positively-tilted southern branch trof.
Increasing clouds and seasonably mild temperatures today as the upper flow turns southwesterly ahead of trough/short wave digging into the Mississippi Valley. Still looks like we could see some wintry mix in the higher elevations of the north Georgia mountains late tonight/early Sunday. Temperatures are marginal and models have backed off on liquid equivalent precipitation amounts across the far north so any snowfall accumulations are still expected to be minimal and confined to the higher ridges.
Snow will mix with rain, or remain a rain/freezing rain/snow mix, below roughly 4500 feet throughout the day (affecting most valleys). Winds will decrease this evening, save for in the higher terrain where gusts of 40 to 50 mph will remain persistent well into Sunday.
This area was co-located with downslope warming early this morning with some temperatures reaching into the lower 40s. Becoming mainly clear again tonight as a weak cold front moves through.
Showers and thunderstorms end with the passage of the trough and front mid morning Rio Grande/Edwards Plateau, midday US 281/I-35 corridors and mid afternoon Coastal Plains. High pressure settles over our area tonight leading to decreasing winds and along with the drier airmass, allow for nearly efficient radiational cooling. A few spots in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau could drop to freezing around sunrise on Sunday.
331 AM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 A trough of low pressure from the Canadian Rockies is pushing a tight pressure gradient through the region today. Also, this overnight low pressure trough is pushing these gusty west and southwest winds in a chinooking effect across those central Montana locations, where temperatures are already climbing greater than 40 degrees during these early morning hours. As the onset of these expected winds for Sunday are still more than 24 hours away, felt it was best to continue with the High Wind Watch for now, and let the next shift re-evaluate these threats and decide if an upgrade to warning is needed.
Southerly return flow over western and central ND with a warm front moving in from the west. All snow is favored northeast where temperatures remain subfreezing.
Confidence for high winds impacting adjacent high plains and valleys of south central and southeast WY is high, and upgraded the High Wind Watches to Warnings valid from late this evening through late Sunday afternoon. Winds will taper off for the high plains and valleys Sunday night, but remain strong and gusty for the wind-prone zones. A few locations in the NE Panhandle may reach the lower 50s Sunday afternoon.
Upper ridging builds in tonight which will help keep lows around 20 as H85 temps remain around 0C or above. West to northwest breezes on the southern edge of this low will increase through the day. Though moisture starved, this low could bring a few light showers to the northern tier of SD and into west central MN Sunday afternoon.
Today through Sunday: Wintry Mix will then linger into the morning hours as a cold front approaches from the west. Unfortunately the cold front won't offer us a reprieve from cloudiness, as we're expected to remain socked in through at least Sunday afternoon.
One upper level trough, located over western Kansas at 00z Saturday, will move into the Mississippi Valley today as another upper level wave exits the Rockies and moves out into the Western High Plains. Based on the latest forecast temperatures in the Boundary layer at 00z Sunday it appears that the latest guidance may end up being a little too cool, especially given the highs yesterday and snow melt. Will therefore lean towards highs being a couple of degrees warmer compared to the latest NBM, especially west of Dodge City where this warmup is most pronounced.
535 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Quiet and mild will be the story through this last weekend of astronomical Autumn, with the mild more noticeable on Sunday than today in our eastern areas, which today will still be under the influence of departing cool high pressure. Readings expected to stabilize or even rise a little through the overnight, as winds shift to westerly with passing weak warm front. The warming will lead to a warmer Sunday, despite some increasing mid-high clouds ahead of a broad wave approaching the region.
/issued 300 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020/ Region on backside of upper trough moving east today as upper ridge builds in from the west. A weak trough will move down east side of ridge and across the region early Sunday but have little impact.
307 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Quiet and mild will be the story through this last weekend of astronomical Autumn, with the mild more noticeable on Sunday than today in our eastern areas, which today will still be under the influence of departing cool high pressure. Readings expected to stabilize or even rise a little through the overnight, as winds shift to westerly with passing weak warm front. The warming will lead to a warmer Sunday, despite some increasing mid-high clouds ahead of a broad wave approaching the region.
Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, but light winds and mostly sunny skies will make it feel pretty comfortable for December 19th.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the western states will result in a dry northwest flow aloft pattern for the forecast area through Sunday night.
310 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 A weak cold front will trigger a few light rain showers east of the I-55 corridor today. 08z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City. Despite the initial lack of moisture, forcing ahead of the front and its associated upper trough has been sufficient to trigger isolated showers along a Champaign to St. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 40s today, then will drop into the middle to upper 20s tonight. with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine and temperatures once again topping out in the lower to middle 40s.
The San Luis Valley may struggle to warm above freezing while other valley locations warm into the upper 30s/lower 40s where winds result in sufficient mixing. Upper trough in NW flow will move through CO this afternoon which will spread another round of isolated snow showers into the central mountains this afternoon and evening, but these will be isolated and light with spotty amounts under 1 inch. Winds increase tonight across the higher elevations behind the passing wave but high res models keep any potential for high winds to the north of the area.
549 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently moving east through TX early this morning. A cold front is also moving south through our forecast area, turning winds to the north, and bringing cooler/drier air south. Low clouds, along with some patchy fog, has developed south of the front in the warmer more humid air mass. As the upper level trough moves east, and the front interacts with deeper moisture in our southeastern counties, a few showers will be possible, mainly east of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today with highs mainly in the mid/upper 50s, although a few locations could see highs around 60. Tonight, lows will be much cooler than current temperatures with most locations dropping to around freezing under clear skies and light winds.
Upper ridge and drier air over the mid-south will vacate later today ahead of an incoming upper trough. This upper trough/deeper moisture axis will keep moving east, crossing the mid-state tonight. Showers will expand throughout the evening, continue through the night, and eventually diminish early Sunday east as this trough moves away. We will not see much of an airmass chance behind these passing upper troughs thus the first part of the week will have temps largely above normal as the air moderates.
546 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 A weak cold front will trigger a few light rain showers east of the I-55 corridor today. 08z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City. Despite the initial lack of moisture, forcing ahead of the front and its associated upper trough has been sufficient to trigger isolated showers along a Champaign to St. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 40s today, then will drop into the middle to upper 20s tonight. with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine and temperatures once again topping out in the lower to middle 40s.
An area of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will approach the coast of California this afternoon. This upper-level area of high pressure will move inland tonight. The area of high pressure aloft will be centered over Southern California Sunday. The presence of this upper-level anticyclone will only increase the potential for dense fog formation tonight into Sunday morning. The aforementioned area of high pressure aloft will progress eastward into the Desert Southwest Sunday night.
/issued 426 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020/ A progressive split flow pattern will prevail through over the lower 48 states through Sunday. Across the Midsouth, showers will move through the area today, ahead of an open positively-tilted southern branch trof.
a trough of low pressure was moving into the Texas Panhandle and west Texas. High pressure will build across the area Sunday with temperatures not as cold as the last front.
552 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 (Today and tonight) Upper low will swing through northern Texas and southern Oklahoma this morning as surface front moves out of southeast Oklahoma. Even with abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today behind the front.
Band of rain showers continues to spread northeast into far western Tennessee this morning ahead of a cold front currently over Mid Missouri into northwest Arkansas.
A few areas of light showers/patchy drizzle possible across far southeast OK/western AR for the next few hours as the cold front gradually sags south of the forecast area.
High pressure will once again expand across the area Sunday, and remain in place early in the upcoming week. The best lift associated with this trough should remain sufficiently far enough north to keep the chance of measurable precipitation at a minimum, and the trough axis will track east of the area this afternoon.
Currently drying in our CWA behind a weak upper trough that passed through northern zones overnight with a light snowfall. Flat upper ridge will keep us dry through today but a long WSW-ENE fetch of Pacific moisture will come into northern zones this evening and southern zones overnight, continuing into Sunday. Valleys will have rain, except local freezing rain in wind-sheltered colder basins in northern Harney and Malheur Counties Sunday morning. Precipitation will transition to mostly rain on Sunday as a warm front passes. Snow levels: 4000-5000 ft MSL tonight, lifting above 7000 ft on Sunday along a warm front.