Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
321 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
445 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST. WHERE A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WAS OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES LATER ON SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND DRY SLOT PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH AND FLOW OFF THE LAKES MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. WITH RIDGE OUT WEST. UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL WORK THIS WAY NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AS GO THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST HALF ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT.
626 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST. WHERE A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WAS OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES LATER ON SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND DRY SLOT PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH AND FLOW OFF THE LAKES MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT ON THE WAY. A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEST. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
327 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. DEEPENING 850 MB LOW FOCUSING HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY NOW. EARLIER TRAINING AND HIGH INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION RATES OVER THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGES AND VALLEYS HAS NOW DECREASED SOME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ENEWD. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH NARROW RIDGE WILL WORK OVER PA ON FRIDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL EXTEND A DEEPENING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THAT. ALONG THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE A LL JET AND A PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS. WITH SOME MODEST CAPES AND STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.
402 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROUGHING CONTINUES ITS AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN IN ORDER GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS A POOL OF COOLER AIR ALOFT DROPS 500MB TEMPS TO -7. IMPRESSIVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SAT WILL START TO LIFT ON SUN AS 250MB JET CORE (100-120 KNOTS) RIDES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGHEST VALUES SHOULD FAVOR THE INTERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS AND WEAK STEERING LEVEL FLOW. PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
418 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. COMBINATION OF CAA/CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN YDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROF IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROF AND SHOULD DEEPEN THE TROF EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH WILL BE TODAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ON THE COAST MOVES INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
The large scale pattern currently features upper level ridging across the western states with troughing stretching from the Great Lakes southward to the southeast states.
415 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015 NOAM UPPER AIR WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH RIDGING OFF EACH COAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. A COLD FRONT IS BEING ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY STRONG CONVECTION. THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND HEADED WELL INTO TEXAS BY SUNRISE. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER PASSES OF THE NEW MEXICO ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT.
WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NC TO CENTRAL MS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD WHILE A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR MOVES OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE TODAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS PROBABLY GETTING INTO THE MID 80S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUSTAINING TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WEST TO EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH AND EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY, WITH PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY, WHILE A VIGOROUS UL JET FORMS AND MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NY AND PA. BHD THE LOW.
534 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
Warm and sunny skies will persist through much of this weekend under a high pressure ridge.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND WE MAY SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. DECENT WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES RISE AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MODERATES. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING INCREASES MIXING AND AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
210 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2015 High pressure will gradually build over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho and allow for a warming and drying trend under sunny skies through the rest of the week.
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA.
340 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE LOWEST VISIBILITY REPORTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES LATER ON SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND DRY SLOT PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH AND FLOW OFF THE LAKES MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
418 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE SAME BIG PICTURE IDEA CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE, IN WHICH A SLOW MOVING, DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NY/PA THIS WEEKEND. CONSENSUS FROM OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC ALIKE IS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER, SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION, AS IT PERTAINS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS WET AREA-WIDE, WITH GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT LOWER-LEVELS, WELL DEFINED FRONTOGENESIS FORCING, AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS.
544 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING FROM ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. REINFORCING THE POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS. WITH N/NWRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NV AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST REGION. BUT EVEN LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BUT ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. WITH RIDGE OUT WEST. UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL WORK THIS WAY NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AS GO THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST HALF ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT.
For the 6Z TAFs, a cold front will traverse the area overnight tonight, bringing thunderstorms to all sites. Thunderstorm complex over Kansas this evening is still on track to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas around midnight as the strong cold front continues its southward push toward the area. For the 0Z TAFs, a cold front will traverse the area overnight, bringing thunderstorms to all sites. /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/ A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and Friday morning accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and drier air will move into the area for the weekend bringing our first taste of fall.
350 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO SD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFY A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKE STATES TODAY THROUGH SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT.
558 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.
Cold front will drop through West Central Texas this afternoon, but cold advection will really hold off until tonight. After highs in the low to mid 90s, stronger northeast winds develop tonight and a cooler and drier air mass will begin to work its way into the area.
413 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
Thunderstorms will be possible later tonight, and possibly affect KCNM, with more thunderstorms possible later this morning and this evening along and outflow boundary and cold front respectively.
1229 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. BUT WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
306 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
339 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS IN SOUTHWEST VA AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE ISOLATED PATCHES OF FREEZING TEMPS IN VERY PROTECTED AREAS. BUT OVERALL THERE WILL BE A RETURN FLOW STARTING THAT WILL LIKELY BE WARMING THE MOUNTAINS AND TRYING TO WARM UP THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING.
250 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
331 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SHARP RIDGE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM ACTIVE HUDSON BAY LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE WISE MONDAY. AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SOUTH WINDS MONDAY WILL PULL SOME OF THIS COOLER NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A large area of low clouds associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes has been sinking slowly southward across north-central Illinois over the past few hours. Afternoon highs will range from the lower to middle 40s along/north of I-74. These light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to northerly. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. Temperature drop further aided by light winds under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover.
A TROUGH IS LINGERING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS THE FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS.
101 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS TO FALL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
124 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY EVENING.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS LOW HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WIND FIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1240 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 Cold front is currently moving through northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. This is because the low levels are very dry per the latest RAP soundings. Upper trough supplying the ascent for the precipitation will move quickly east early this morning causing these returns to dissipate by 12Z which is depicted well by the experimental HRRR. Temperatures will be much cooler today with northerly winds advecting cooler air into the area.
318 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 DECREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
Windy and cooler tonight with scattered snow showers.
223 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL CAA SET TO START EARLY WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECM ALL SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST WY BY 18Z TUE. SO WE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUN IS SUPPORTING PASSING SHOWERS AND EVEN AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE STATE. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ 12Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FINALLY HAVING PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO AREAS TO OUR NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE REGION WAS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW AVG INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GETS HERE, WE COULD WARM UP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO I INCREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ONLY A DEGREE ACROSS THE AREA AND TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SWING DOWN FROM KENTUCKY AROUND 18Z. WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
101 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016/ TEMPERATURES AS OF 16Z ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE VALUES YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH MANY SITES ACTUALLY AT THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND FORECAST GUIDANCE HAVE IT ARRIVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, WHICH IS REASONABLE BASED ON IT'S CURRENT SPEED AND LOCATION. A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WITH SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING SWITCHING THE WIND DIRECTIONS TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TOMORROW.
256 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS OVER WRN N AMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE E. MOVING THRU THE RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL CONT E TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW WITH ITS TAIL END EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO CO. WITH THE TROF OVER THE ERN USA. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE THETA-E RIDGE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE PEAK-HEATING.
246 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016 WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST SIDE OF A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE AND SOME FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WEST SIDE VALLEYS VERY NEAR TO THE CASCADES. NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS.
347 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT.
105 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 30S TODAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
1104 AM MDT MON APR 4 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY. BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH PASSING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL TROUGH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND INITIAL TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY.
215 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early afternoon. While temperatures had warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was begnning to filter in from the north.
344 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
220 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016 Warm and dry conditions continue with high pressure over the region.
1124 AM MDT MON APR 4 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY. BEFORE WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH PASSING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL TROUGH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND INITIAL TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY.
535 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES AREA-WIDE AS H85 TEMPS JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FROM THE 50S TONIGHT TO THE 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
203 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 CURRENTLY WATCHING A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SLIDING THROUGH TENNESSEE.
The resulting flattening of the flow aloft will increase surface winds around the forecast area, that is southwesterly winds mixing down over the western half or so of the area under a thermal ridge, and a tightening surface pressure gradient increasing winds over the Permian Basin. The surface pressure gradient over the Permian Basin, and an early developing low level jet Tuesday evening in response to height falls from the passing ua trough, could result in sustained wind speeds of 25 to 30 mph sustained over portions of the Permian Basin Tuesday late afternoon/evening.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG/OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH MID DAY WED AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND TURNS INTO A NEARLY FULL LATITUDE NEUTRAL TILT FEATURE. THE TROUGH THEN WHISKS RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE ATLC. WINDS THEN RAPIDLY FRESHEN LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AHEAD OF A VERY FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH A SECOND REINFORCING COLD "BACK DOOR" TYPE COLD FRONT SETTLING SWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
THE FRONT MOVES BY DRY OVERNIGHT AND RE-ESTABLISHES COOLER CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 7KTS AFTER 7 TO 8Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION AND IMPACTS MINIMAL. LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
154 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA.