Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Key Messages: - Record warm lows possible tonight - Hot and humid tomorrow with afternoon storm chances RECORD WARM LOWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT: Highly amplified large scale pattern over the CONUS will begin to breakdown as the longwave trough over the western U. The ridge will then flatten and become more zonal spreading across much of the CONUS. Ahead of the front tonight, the eastern edge of the low- level moisture transport gradient will approach allowing for some storm chances. As the cold front continues to propagate southeast across the forecast area tomorrow, locations in the southeastern half of the forecast area are forecast to remain cloud free (20. LOOKING AHEAD: Above average temperatures continue through the work week as the Upper Mississippi Valley stays on the warm side of broad, low amplitude ridging.
Gulf moisture will continue to spread northward as southerly winds prevail and mid level high pressure builds into the region.
328 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 An upper level trough will round the upper level ridge to the south of the area, which will bring temperatures back to something closer to normal for this time of year today. With drier air and light winds temperatures will be much cooler by Wednesday morning. High temperatures should be a bit warmer however with highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
(Today through Wednesday Night) It's a little warmer than this time last night, but with dew points in the mid 50s, it's quite comfortable outside.
Conditions continue to be favorable for decent ridge valley temperature split tonight. An upper low/trough currently over the northern Rockies and northern plains will move east during the period, running across the northern side of the ridge and working to flatten it. Without an influx of cool air, our air mass will continue modify and heat up under the ridging aloft.
Lowered cloud cover and patchy fog this morning will give way to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise to right at average, on this summer solstice day, which generally means 70s in the valleys of western Montana and 80s in the lower valleys of central Idaho.
A cold front arrives Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms. A warm front will finish pushing through the area this morning, with some light rain or sprinkles possible early this morning over northeastern West Virginia. This will provide dry weather with afternoon temperatures reaching into the 90s for the lowlands. With a very dry layer in the model soundings at the top of the mixing height, went on the lower side of guidance for afternoon dewpoints. By prime heating hours on Wednesday, the atmosphere overhead will be beneath a warm and unstable airmass proceeding the passage of the cold front.
Sunny skies and highs in the low 90s are expected for yet another day.
The line of showers and thunderstorms will drift to the south and affect most of the Lower Keys by Sunrise, then the activity will move into the outer Gulf and Hawk Channels waters. The robust high pressure over the eastern conus will continue to expand to the southeast and cause relatively hot weather across the southeastern United States. The high pressure will promote subsidence throughout the atmospheric column now through Wednesday night. The stout high will advect dry continental air mass into the region from the north and push surface dew points to the lower 70s over the next several days. The GFS has 500 MB relatively humidity values ranging from the lower 20s to the upper 30s beginning on Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Another seasonably hot day is expected as Oklahoma and north Texas remain on the western periphery of a ~596 dam mid-level ridge. As this occurs, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Plains. It appears the cold front will make it at least to southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle before becoming quasi-stationary.
(Today) Water vapor imagery and streamflow analysis shows a large amplified upper level ridge along the MS Valley northward through southern Ontario. At the surface, a ridge axis was spread east- west from the Atlantic basin off the Carolinas into the lower MS Valley. The 5h/8h anticyclones shift a bit further west today. Strong subsidence and a capping inversion will suppress cumulus development, thus a full solar heating day is expected with high temperatures in the middle 90s for valley area and upper 80s to around 90 atop the higher plateaus and ridges.
We will see highs in the upper 90s and into the lower 100s later on this week across the entire area. A cold front will slide down into the region late Wednesday giving the northern portions of the forecast area a chance to see a shower or storm.
Any isolated storm chance this afternoon and evening will stay west of the forecast area closer to theta-e axis and more displaced from H5 ridge center. With the increase in dewpoints, overnight lows tonight will be warmer than they were last night.
328 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Summary: A cold front will continue to move across the Northland today bringing relief from the hot temperatures, at least for western/northern portions of the Northland.
343 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A brief period of high pressure today before a cold front arrives Wednesday morning. The cold front moves east across the area through the day Wednesday. High pressure will build back across the area behind the frontal passage and persist through the start of the weekend. A cold front approaches the region from the west on Wednesday morning. A quiet and dry near term period is in store across the region as high pressure builds in behinds the cold frontal passage on Wednesday.
241 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Moisture streaming into the area from the northwest in response to upper level low over southeast Sasketchewan but heights are already building over the area as ridging moves into Montana from the west. Heights continue to build into Wedensday with still dry conditions so sunshine and warmer air aloft should push temperatures into the 80s.
Upper level ridging that has been in control for what seems like two weeks will remain in full control and actually slowly strengthen over the area.
Thunderstorms are possible in the higher terrain of Central California, as well as in the Kern County desert Wednesday afternoon. An upper-level area of low pressure will move southward down the coast of California today.
1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The heat has officially returned today with temperatures currently in the low 80s on the Plateau and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. However, it continues to be unusually dry in the low levels with dewpoints only in the 40s to low 50s, which is creating very low RH values down into the teens. With the airmass so hot and dry, heat index values are below the actual temperatures, aka it feels cooler than reality. H5 ridge centered near Memphis will begin strengthening and expanding tomorrow with heights rising aloft over Middle Tennessee, so Tuesday is expected to be several degrees warmer than today with highs around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s everywhere else.
1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The upper level low across swrn WY featuring -20C h700mb air will lift northeast through MT tonight. The Recd jet will send a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The upper level low will cause modest cooling aloft across nwrn Nebraska with h700mb temps falling to around -10C. The upper low lifts into Canada during the day Tuesday and this should shunt the subtropical moisture plume south into KS.
There is the potential for strong to severe storms due to the high instability and the inverted V look to soundings.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected with a Wednesday cold front. Dry and much warmer weather is expected today as a ridge builds across the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight as the strong ridge remains in place.
A weak back door cold front will continue to move southward through South Florida today allowing for drier air to work into the region from the north. Highs today will be in the lower 90s over the interior and west coast metro areas, except 80s east coast metro areas due to the northeast wind flow keeping the temperatures cooler from the marine air. However, the highs on Wednesday will be a little cooler mainly in the 80s with relative humidity in the lower to id 60s.
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Dominant upper-level ridge will only continue to strength its grip on the region through the short-term as the center of the ridge axis shifts farther SW and anchors itself right over our CWA. Fortunately, dew points have held mainly in the 60s today although moisture is beginning to creep back northward from the Gulf as evidenced by the lower 70 dew points in parts of Deep East Texas.
254 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Expect another sunny day today with mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Latest surface analysis reveals expansive high pressure across the eastern half of the US with a 1025mb center over WV. 21/00Z upper air analysis shows robust ridging across much of the central CONUS with a 596dm dome of high pressure over the MS Valley. An upper level trough over Central Canada will attempt to break down the persistent omega block. In this attempt, a cold front will push into the area Wednesday afternoon. The storms and cold front will push through the region into the evening hours, before the front stalls just south of the KY border.
1131 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure entrenched across the Deep South. The lower RH values should still make for a fairly comfortable night and beginning to the day on Tuesday.
Gulf moisture will continue to spread northward as southerly winds prevail and mid level high pressure builds into the region. /Issued 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ /Wednesday Onward/ The upper level ridge will have shifted westward by the start of the period, becoming centered over North & Central Texas.
Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid to maybe upper 90s, as the 500 mb ridge begins to flatten from the impending sfc cold front and 500 mb trough that moving the pattern. The cold front will be the trigger for the thunderstorms that kick off in the afternoon and early evening. Looking at the showalter indices, the numbers show better for elevated convection by the early evening, as the cold front begins to cross Lake Michigan. Upper-level ridging will continue to fold over the Great Lakes and into New England on Wednesday as a cold front departs the region to the east as well.
421 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will cover the area today.
218 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The biggest problem today is whether the sub-tropical moisture plume gets shunted to the west/northwest by an upper level ridge that has begun to expand to the west. Since drying may not be the mechanism that limits shower chances, increasing subsidence from the westward expanding upper ridge may do it, but satellite imagery is not currently in a position to help with that analysis. A 594 dam sub-tropical ridge will continue to expand in longitude across the southern half of the CONUS this week as the highly amplified mid/upper-level trough dissipates, with the polar jet becoming displaced over the vicinity of the Medicine Line.
Low RH values again this afternoon, generally in the low to mid 20s. The only changes are that it will be slightly warmer today and fewer high clouds. Our ridge remains centered just to our west and the mean flow remains northerly. Afternoon RH values will range from the lower to mid 20s for most places. Slightly warmer tonight with temps ranging from near 60 to the mid 60s with clear skies.
Monsoonal flex will be pushed back westward as we see a strengthening and western expansion of the ridge across the Mississippi valley. By later this evening, precip will be off to the NW with a building layer of subsidence thanks to the ridge, so precip chances after today will be muted or heavily degraded beyond this forecast period. Temp wise, seasonal conditions anticipated with widespread 90s, 80s confined to the higher elevations and triple digits along the lower RGV.
930 PM PDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Low pressure developing near Point Conception will draw subtropical moisture into southern California for possible showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. The marine layer will remain shallow and mostly confined to coastal areas this week as warmer weather coincides with the beginning of summer.
The upper ridged detailed in yesterday morning's discussion has shifted to the east, centering along the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. To the west and northwest, scattered convection has been ongoing along the extended surface boundary associated with the Dakotas/Canadian Prairies 500mb trough lifting along the US/CAN border.
With relatively dry air in place across much of the region, temperatures will fall some overnight with lows Tuesday morning in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge is centered over the region with mostly sunny skies and temps climbing into the 90s. Upper ridge solidly in control with temps in the upper 90s to around 100 by Wednesday. Lows will be a little warmer each night though not quite as bad as last week since dewpoints are lower during this heat event.
330 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Higher magnitude warmth firmly entrenched today, as the region lands at the apex of large scale ridging emanating north of sprawling upper level high pressure over the south-central conus. Ridge axis settles eastward tonight as modest height falls associated with a stronger pv feature ejecting across western Ontario works into the elongated ridge periphery. Initial frontal passage lacks in meaningful cold air advection, with the slight downward trend in temperature Wednesday simply a result of eastward displacement of the main thermal ridge with a general decline in mean thicknesses.
1211 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front could then advance into or stall near the region late week into the weekend. Aloft, the forecast area will be positioned between a large ridge over the southern and southeastern U. and a trough to the east.
An upper ridge axis extends from Hudson Bay south to Louisiana. We are directly under it and will experience the heat that summer ridges typically deliver. H8 temps around 22c will translate to surface temperatures in the lower to mid 90s today. A cold front will try to make it through the cwa tonight. The high temperatures and abundant low level moisture will create quite a bit of instability. SPC has upgraded the northwest CWA to a marginal risk for storms that develop along the cold front. The cold front will knock temperatures down around 10 degrees by Wednesday; same for dewpoints.
1253 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Humidity and temperatures will be increasing today and Wednesday with mid to upper 90 degrees likely today and the highest humidity across the area tonight and Wednesday.
At the surface, cooler air has now moved into the region, bringing an end to the stretch of hot and humid conditions that have plagued the area for the past several days. High pressure will approach the region this morning, then settles in across a good portion of the Northern and Central Plains this afternoon and tonight before getting pushed to the east on Wednesday ahead of low pressure tracking across the Rockies.
They amplified deep layer ridging is expected to persist across much of the region today and tomorrow, allowing the warming trend we've seen the last couple of days to continue. High temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 90s for most of the area, while portions of eastern Alabama may remain in the low 90s thanks to some lingering "dry/cooler" easterly flow. Given the strong deep layer ridging in place, and the associated subsidence, I don't believe we'll see very high coverage of any storms if any are even able to develop.
Today Through Wednesday Night High pressure or more properly called, The Dome of Doom, will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Natural State through the short term period. High pressure will likely be centered over AR the next couple of days keeping dewpoints relatively low compared to where they have been.
The trough has moved to the north and east of Arizona which has caused the light winds, warmer temperatures and dry conditions today. Tomorrow morning, expect another round of freezing to near-freezing temperatures for areas north and west of Flagstaff due to dry conditions and radiational cooling.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected with a Wednesday cold front. Maintained isold showers mainly for areas E of I 79 as the last of the upper support/vorticity advection with the warm front exits the region. Dry and much warmer weather is expected for Tuesday as the ridge builds from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region. Mainly dry weather is expected Thu through Sat as model ensembles indicate a large building ridge from the srn Plains to the Upper Ohio Valley region. The ridge is expected to flatten later over the weekend as a trough advances from the Upper Midwest.
Relatively benign weather over the next few days in terms of showers and storms, however, warming temps can be expected while ridging aloft and at the surface limit rain chances through mid week and afternoon highs warm into the mid/upper 90s over the latter half of the week.
Otherwise, on the larger scale, mid-level ridging will remain centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, starting to shift slowly west through Wednesday. Have continued the inherited 30% pops for mainly the lower and mid RGV today. Although robust moisture will continue to the south on Wednesday, the effect of the mid level ridge shifting west will be to limit another round of significant tropical convection on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 70s and highs will range from the lower 90s east to a skosh above the century mark far west.
Mid aftn temps ranged fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Looking at a stagnant wx pattern acrs the FA ovr the next few days as high pressure aloft rmns centered ovr the region.
Locations over the far southeast plains do look to remain within this trough axis, and it is possible for some light showery development to persist in this area tonight. These could be areas to keep an eye for higher chances for thunder, and its quite possible that the higher chances for thunder on Tuesday could be over the southwest mountains.
/issued 334 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022/ A persistent and stout ridge aloft maintains its grip over the region today. The latest WV imagery shows considerable dry air aloft associated with the ridge has spread acrs much of our LA Parishes. Thanks to the increase in clouds and showers, temperatures will likely only reach the lower 90s acrs portions of SW/S Cntl LA, although middle to upper 90s can be expected acrs most of the area, especially along and north of I-10. Other than the modest increase in showers or storms on Tuesday, little change is anticipated in the sensible weather pattern as the ridge in the mid and upper levels gradually expands westward from the Lower MS Valley into TX.
612 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Today) Hot and humid weather will prevail today as an upper ridge just to our east shifts slightly west over the area.
For the most part we will be sandwiched between these features with off and on chances for precipitation as each trough tracks off to our north. In addition, this will be a cooler set up for us as the really hot weather will largely be confined to the southern plains and beat back south by each upper trough and cold front that swings trough.
631 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A brief period of high pressure today before a cold front arrives Wednesday morning. The cold front moves east across the area through the day Wednesday. High pressure will build back across the area behind the frontal passage and persist through the start of the weekend. A cold front approaches the region from the west on Wednesday morning. A quiet and dry near term period is in store across the region as high pressure builds in behinds the cold frontal passage on Wednesday.
Mid to upper level ridge continues to build over the Southern/Southeastern CONUS today. At the sfc, the high pressure centered over the Southeastern/Eastern CONUS will continue to provide warm and humid southeasterly winds into the region.
An upper low over northeastern Montana will continue to progress eastward. As the low progress eastward the pressure gradient will increase resulting in windy conditions across the region today. However, the upper low is expected to progress through the region fairly quickly reducing the longevity of the winds. Wrap around precipiation is also forecast to tapper off by the late afternoon as the upper low progresses into Ontario. Temperatures will continue to increase as a low level thermal ridge crosses the plains.
302 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level high over the Southern Plains. Subtropical moisture lifts north around the high across New Mexico and clips southeast Colorado. Last nights cold front ushered in cooler air for today. Highs will mainly be in the lower 80s across northeast Colorado, though upper 70s will be possible where thicker cloud cover will be, like Lincoln county.
Strong mid-upper level ridge will remain in place over the region through the time period as an upper level trough off the Atlantic seaboard shifts ever so slightly eastward. At the surface, a weak high pressure ridge over the SE US will continue to build southward into the local area.
647 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will cover the area today.
Lows will be in the lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s.
603 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
(Today) Hot and humid weather will prevail today as an upper ridge just to our east shifts slightly west over the area.
428 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A few showers and thunderstorms will linger across northeast Montana early today on the back side of the departing low pressure system. The next few days after today will see dry weather and a warming trend while the next trough drops through British Columbia.
Monsoon moisture may produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high Sierra south of Highway 50 late this week. Skies are clear across interior NorCal early this morning as water vapor imagery shows the closed low now drifting south of the Bay Area. Hot weather expected the next several days as the low drifts south off the central California coast.
1032 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will cover the area today.
As expected, with the trough out of the way the southern tier ridge downstream is elongating into the desert southwest, with mid and lower level flow backing around to the south and southeast. In addition, Yuma surface obs have regained a southerly wind component with KYUX vad wind profile backing around in the lowest levels. That will deepen over the next 36 hours and push additional moisture back into the lower deserts from the gulf as we see both southerly and easterly moisture engagement.
359 AM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The midlevel trough continues to race off to the northeast, ending rain chances across western WY during the short term period. That will translate to sfc temps reaching the low to mid 70s, and higher elevations temps around 60 for the first day of summer. Warmer temps will bring humidity levels back down below 15 percent for the southern half of the state.
1055 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Warm air will return on the backside of high pressure and ahead of a cold front bringing warm temperatures to the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. The cold front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon and evening bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) It's a little warmer than this time last night, but with dew points in the mid 50s, it's quite comfortable outside.