Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: A closed upper low centered off Vancouver Island will be the main driver during this period. Cold front moves east tonight with the beginnings of cyclogenesis in southern Alberta.
1125 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 An upper level trough is passing to the north across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley with a ridge to the southwest over the Northern Gulf. High temperatures are still on track to climb into the low 80s for most valley locations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 59 82 58 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 56 81 58 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 56 82 58 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 52 80 52 / 10 10 10 10.
/BB/ Through tonight: We had a few showers popping up yesterday afternoon but today anticipate the northern extent of the subtropical ridge building up into the Lower Mississippi Valley to largely suppress diurnal convective development. Deep mixing by afternoon should get 925 MB temperatures to around 20 degrees which should yield highs today generally a few degrees warmer than was the case yesterday in most spots. Tonight, a few high clouds will continue to stream in from the west but surface winds should again go very light with the lower atmosphere certainly not overly moist.
Fairly widespread shower coverage noted this morning from the earlier cold front. A trough will impact the area through Friday, with colder temperatures and decreasing snow levels noted.
1018 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A weak cold front will dissipate across South Carolina today. High pressure will spread across the Carolinas and Georgia through this weekend.
/issued 249 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017/ Although high pressure is building to the north, the weather pattern looks to continue to be somewhat active through the forecast period. Mainly, the flow around the high will bring a slight chance to a chance of showers every couple of days.
656 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 /12Z TAFS/ Convection continues to weaken across the area early this morning but some redevelopment is possible along and ahead of the upper level trough axis later this morning. This activity is in association with a short wave trough that is moving across West Texas. Precipitation will affect areas generally east of a Haskell, Abilene to Sonora line this morning, with some redevelopment along the trough axis primarily east of a Haskell, Abilene to Junction line this afternoon.
915 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A back-door cold front will settle south through the region this morning. Cooler high pressure will follow for the end of the week. Much warmer temperatures will arrive for the weekend as high pressure drifts offshore. This cold front will serve as a focus for isolated low-topped convection across the far southern counties, along the lingering weak 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE instability axis. Highs today a category cooler than yesterday, ranging from mid 70s NE to near 80 southwest. High pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard will continue to build south into the area overnight, bringing noticeably drier and cooler air into the area. The will result in a continuation of dry weather with high temps generally in the mid to upper 70s and low temps in the lower to mid 50s.
A ridge of high pressure was slowly building across the TN Valley early this morning, with mostly clear skies persisting. At the surface, high pressure was moving east across the Great Lakes and winds were generally light and out of the northeast. Therefore, expect temperatures to drop a few more degrees, with lows bottoming out in the lower 50s by daybreak. Today should be a fairly nice day across the region as the upper ridge continues to shift eastward. Under mostly sunny skies and the rising heights, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s. The upper ridge will become anchored over the TN Valley by Friday morning, while high pressure slowly builds to our south. Expect quiet weather on Friday, as the upper ridge strengthens.
Otherwise, only a little thin cirrus across the north half of the state under general surface ridging today. Winds should be light and mostly variable thanks to the ridging. If there is an overall direction it would be east to southeast around the base of the ridge. 08 Temperatures will be much warmer than normal the next few days.
Impacts of approaching trough are beginning to materialize this morning as many areas are already seeing gusty winds around 20-30 mph. Other areas could begin to see localized gusts of 40-50 mph by late this morning, especially across the test site and the higher elevations, but with the more widespread uptick in winds still beginning early this afternoon have chosen to leave the Wind Advisory in place.
It was mostly clear and cool across the Mid-State early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. Look for upper level high pressure area to build over the southeastern United States, producing a warm and dry atmosphere across Middle Tennessee.
High pressure will be stacked over the region through the day, resulting in sunshine mixed with patches of thin cirrus clouds. Temperatures will be warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Humidity levels will be very low, with lowest afternoon RH values dipping into the lower 20s.
Many locations in the lower Keys picked up more than an inch of rainfall, with locations in Key West accumulating 1. A low pressure system is stationary north of Hispaniola, while a weak undulation in the easterlies is analyzed north of the Yucatan Channel. This places the Keys in a low level short wave ridge, normally not so efficient at shower production. Thus, we surmise the warm advection in the lower levels effectively eroded the capping inversion overnight, releasing thin cape within a boisterous northeast to east steering layer. Highs should still reach the lower 80s and skies should clear. From synopsis, a nearly stationary low pressure system is centered north of Hispaniola, meanwhile, a building area of high pressure is northeast of the Ohio River Valley.
1025 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure through Thursday.
Highs look to be in the mid to upper 60s, with warmer mid 70s near Medicine Lodge.
A cold front will move through Western Washington Wednesday night, and this should bring rain to all areas.
Moisture arriving with a cold front that will settle into the area and stall late tonight will provide a combination of BR and stratus, most likely allowing MVFR conditions to prevail at DTW. Many areas, particularly west of the glacial ridge will be nearing average highs for the date (low 50s) by 12z. Upper trough will sweep through Wednesday night, likely leading to an uptick in shower coverage before sweeping the front east.
329 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front will lift through Pennsylvania today and be located north of the region on Wednesday.
Slight mid lvl height rises would translate into the Ern segment of the front transitioning into a warm front that should lift N/NW to induce warm, moist advection toward Central KS. A positively-tilted upper-deck wave extending from an INTENSE upper cyclone centered over Hudson Bay to a second cyclone developing over primarily AZ should keep the NE-SW oriented stationary front positioned almost thru the center of the KICT CWA. The cut-off cyclone centered over AZ will weaken considerably on Sat as a strong mid- upr wave approaches the W Coast. Cold front currently extends from southern IA into central KS. Unseasonably high low level moisture will work north tonight with low cloud formation expected for areas along and east of the cold front. For now have the highest fog confidence at KHUT-KICT-KSLN.
For tonight, high clouds will be on the increase from the south as a wave of low pressure moves into the central plains. The low pressure system is expected to move east into southern lower Michigan Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler due to cloud cover or rain, but still well above normal for this time of year. A weak low pressure system will bring a chance of rain late Wednesday morning and afternoon south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Oconto line.
/issued 1039 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016/ High pressure will continue to ridge across the area at the surface and aloft providing continued dry conditions and some gusty easterly winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will again surge to cautionary levels especially offshore after sunset this evening as high pressure continues to ridge across the area.
303 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front will move north of the forecast area this evening.
Well above normal temperatures expected to continue with highs around 90 and lows in the lower 70s.
310 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 For the southeastern United States, the next 48 to 60 hours will feature a transition from an upper level ridge and record high temperatures, to a large trough and much cooler temperatures.
Dry weather and above normal conditions will persist across the region today as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain firmly entrenched across the forecast area.
The upper level trough over Nevada will drift east into western Utah this evening. This trough will turn south and strengthen into a low pressure system southern Arizona, with high pressure aloft replacing it over Utah midweek.
1124 AM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Current surface map places high pressure across western South Dakota. Northern wave of splitting upper trof slides across the area tonight. Temperatures marginally cold enough for rain/snow mix in the higher elevations of the Black Hills overnight.
225 PM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Weak high pressure will linger and confine any showers to the vicinity of the North Cascades and near the British Columbia border through Wednesday.
Dry weather conditions return tonight and will continue through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds aloft.
349 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A weak boundary moved northward through the state in the form of a warm front this morning. Despite high pressure taking hold behind this frontal pattern, lingering moisture led to high clouds across much of the state throughout the day, taking longer than expected to mix out. With light southerly winds and clear skies expected overnight, a decent ridge/valley temperature split is expected. For tomorrow, high pressure will remain in control with very good mixing and continued southwest flow. This will once again allow temperatures to catapult well above seasonable normals, with highs forecasted in the low 80s for much of the region. These clouds will continue to thicken and build down during the overnight hours as the cold front approaches the state.
346 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Southerly flow in advance of a cold front will continue through Wednesday evening.
614 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
200 PM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Another cooler than normal day will continue this afternoon under onshore flow and areas of lingering low clouds, mainly north of San Diego County. Offshore flow will develop Wednesday and bring warmer weather with mostly clear skies with locally gusty northeast winds.
These showers will mainly be over the higher terrain. The showers will gradually decrease through the afternoon though as a building upper ridge causes the air mass to begin drying.
1206 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control of the weather today. Surface winds will increase and become gusty out of the south to southwest as low pressure slowly moves east across southern Kansas. It looks like record high temperatures are in serious jeopardy today as progged 850 mb temperatures support high temperatures in the lower 80s.
610 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front will move north of the forecast area this evening.
105 PM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A trough of low pressure will move through the area bringing a slight chance of rain and cooler temperatures to the Central Coast today.
High pressure will move across the area today with another day of mild temperatures and a light westerly breeze. We will see a positively tilted trof pass through Wednesday with the right entrance region of an 80kt jet supporting some mid level lift.
205 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Wednesday.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb),latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm depictS an unseasonably deep and warm middle and upper anticyclone centered over the NW Caribbean Sea, with the northern periphery of the ridging and associated jet stream pushing across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and the Northeastern States. Consequently, latest available water vapor imagery is delineating very dry air encompassing the Florida peninsula and the Keys on the right side of the ridging. The closest cold frontal boundary is situated from 999 mb low pressure over Northeastern Ontario southwards to the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures have risen into the lower 80s across the islands with dewpoints around 70.
330 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Sct precip along/north of the Highway 59 corridor should taper off this evening with the loss of heating and as sheared upper impulse pulls out of the region. Medium range solns agree on decent rain chances w/ the approach of upper trof from the west early to mid week.
Temperatures are running nearly 20 degrees cooler than what we've seen across the southeast. Our cold front is still on track to move across the Panhandles over the course of the day on Wednesday. There will be a low end chance for isolated showers to develop along the leading edge of the cold front as it moves into the central portions of the Panhandles as early as noon Wednesday.
Otherwise little change to this update, Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low was over northeast ND and was moving to the east about 20 knots. Another upper low was located over western Ontario. Upper trough over northern ALTA will move across Canada Wed. Cooler air will edge into the forecast area Wed as flow aloft becomes northwest. Upper level ridge will build over over western North America, then upper ridge will shift into the Northern Plains by Thu night.
206 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will ridge into the region from the north through Wednesday night.
531 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front will lift through Pennsylvania today and be located north of the region on Wednesday.
351 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Partly cloudy skies with temps in the low to mid 80s today.
237 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 An upper level ridge is over the southeastern conus with an upper trough centered over Nevada putting the CWA under southwest flow aloft. The previously mentioned upper trough is expected to strengthen and move eastward on Wednesday. Surface winds will become south to southeasterly in advance of this trough allowing for a rich supply of low level moisture to advect into the area. Upper level lift will begin to increase across northern and western sections of the CWA Wednesday afternoon as the upper trough approaches. Temperatures will likely be at least a little cooler on Wednesday due to the increase in cloud cover/precipitation but will still remain above normal. The upper trough will become cutoff from the upper flow and will result in an upper low over southern Arizona Wednesday night.
The exception will be increasing MVFR cloud cover over the higher terrain of western Arkansas late tonight as moist return flow continue across the region. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge over the southeast U. The southwest flow will be increased over Arkansas Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper low moves into the southwest U. Another warm day is expected today as Arkansas will be under the influence of high pressure. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit cooler due to clouds increasing over the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
High pressure will remain in place across the area at the surface and aloft through the period. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s inland and north to mid 60s to near 70 coastal central and south for lows. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Wednesday afternoon.
434 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 The approaching splitting trough has left general instability across the region today and a weak cold front moving west to east through Utah. Left the mention of tstorms out but we could get a couple of isolated strikes as the trough approaches. The deformation zone between the split trough will remain over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Wednesday. In the meantime, the southern split of the trough will develop into a 570 mb H5 low over Arizona by midday Wednesday.
The regional surface analysis showed a ridge across much of the eastern CONUS. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a fairly strong deep layer ridge over the Southeast.
High pressure will strengthen over the region this TAF period.
This trough will close off at 500 mb over Arizona on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be moving toward the area from the north late in the day Wednesday. It appears that moisture advection will be sufficient to result in mixed-layer CAPES of 1000 to 2000 J/kg by peak heating across much of the forecast area despite the cooler temperatures - although the extent of mid-level cloud cover (and possibly some shower activity near the state line) will have to be monitored for the potential to keep the atmosphere a little more stable than currently expected. High temperatures are expected to range from the low 70s in the northwest to low 80s southeast. This change is courtesy of an upper trough cutting off over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday evening while morphing into a stacked low.
111 PM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A trough of low pressure will move through the area bringing a slight chance of rain and cooler temperatures to the Central Coast today.
We should warm into the mid-80s today under the strong, unseasonable upper level ridge.
A trailing cold front is progged to move southeast across ND, and southwest winds should become northwesterly. A building upper level ridge follows the trough, allowing warm and dry air behind southwest winds to spread across western and central ND on Wednesday. Expecting lows tonight from the lower 30s to around 40. Another mild day Wednesday with highs from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south central.
203 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Aviation A southwest flow of mild air will continue today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile a wave of low pressure will ride along this front and move into Michigan on Wednesday.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region ahead of an approaching cold front.
322 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 The upper level trough over eastern Nevada this afternoon will split as it makes its eastward into western Colorado on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough will be a moderate to strong southwesterly flow over the cwa tonight. The last few runs of the HRRR show some light showers along the Urban Corridor from Denver north to the Cheyenne Ridge mainly this evening. stable and cooler across the cwa. A ridge of high pressure aloft will move overhead Wednesday night to push the upper cutoff low further into AZ.
November starting off on a pleasant note with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s today with just a scattering of passing stratocu.
133 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure centered over New England will move off the coast this afternoon. allowing a warm front to lift north across the area. A low pressure system will move across the Lower Lakes Wednesday night.
309 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 The approaching splitting trough has left general instability across the region today and a weak cold front moving west to east through Utah. Left the mention of tstorms out but we could get a couple of isolated strikes as the trough approaches. The deformation zone between the split trough will remain over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Wednesday. In the meantime, the southern split of the trough will develop into a 570 mb H5 low over Arizona by midday Wednesday.
/issued 344 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016/ Pacific coast low coming ashore NRN CA continues to show indications of separating from the main jetstream to our north thus developing a closed low across the desert southwest. The result will be a better chance that a cold front across SWRN KS may end up making it to the southern Panhandle by mid-morning before a rapid retreat ensues thanks to the deepening low out west. At least a cold front will finally arrive tomorrow to cool things down.
257 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Wednesday.
535 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure will ridge into the region from the north through Wednesday night.
203 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Water vapor shows splitting trof moving through the wrn conus with w/sw flow aloft through the nrn plains. trof is pushing through the wrn dakotas. Weak energy associated with nrn stream of splitting trof will bring a few -shra. skies will quickly clear behind departing wave with upper ridge beginning to build back into the nrn rockies. Strong upper ridging will continue across the region through the end of the week.
Some of the HRRR runs also suggesting a couple of brief showers this evening as the trough splits and translates eastward overnight. Cooler air has filtered across the plains, which will result in a cooler day today. Guidance is showing cooler lows tonight with a bit more cold advection but we will still be cloudy, so I just lowered what we had a couple of degrees, still above freezing on the plains.
The regional surface analysis showed a decaying, "backdoor" cold front extending from SC into the Atlantic, and a rather strong ridge across much of the eastern CONUS. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a fairly strong deep layer ridge over the Southeast.
Surface wind shift has made it down across I70 at this early hour, with cooler temps in the 50s and 60s behind the boundary. This keeps highs about 5 degrees cooler in our northern counties. Southwest flow in the low to mid levels persists Wednesday into Wednesday evening for southern and eastern locations keeping thermal ridge over the area. Forcing for ascent is somewhat limited with modest isentropic upglide along the thermal ridge then eventual frontal passage in the afternoon and evening.
309 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A warm front will lift through Pennsylvania today and be located north of the region on Wednesday.
Expect southwest winds this afternoon mainly from 10 to 15 mph with highs from around 60 southwest to the low to mid 50s north and in the James Valley. The GFS starts the period in quasi- zonal flow in the mid-levels, eventually transitioning to northwest flow, with the ridge directly on top of us by the weekend.
308 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure from New England to North Carolina will move east and and will cover much of the southeast United States tonight and Wednesday.
329 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Afternoon water vapor imagery shows well defined upper trough moving across southern CA. The upper low is still forecast to become cutoff from the main flow across the southwest. while cold front sags southward across KS on Wed afternoon.
315 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 High pressure from New England to North Carolina will move east and will cover much of the southeast United States tonight and Wednesday.
/Issued 740 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016/ Ridging aloft will continue through the short term.
Minor updates were done to the temperature and sky grids a short time ago, but will need to keep an eye on the highs to make sure the lower 80s across the south half are sufficient, with 850 mb temperatures around +17C in an axis extending from Springfield southwest into Missouri. Latest surface map showing frontal boundary extending from low pressure in south central Kansas, northeast to near the northwest tip of Illinois. courtesy of southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. especially given the already very warm 07z/2am readings in the lower to middle 60s.