Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 345 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted SE over the past 24 hours, courtesy of a large trough over the CA coast, and is now centered over the Permian Basin. Despite this, the ridge has will shift to NW Chihuahua this afternoon, so temps should come in slightly cooler than yesterday's. Also, a weak cold front will stall over the nrn zones this morning. Sunday, the ridge shifts a little farther south, but models are in agreement in increasing thicknesses/H85 temps a little over today's.
311 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Cooler conditions can be expected this weekend as the high pressure system that was dominant over the west slips south, and a weak upper trough develops along the California coast.
The cold frontal boundary that tracked through the area has now made its way into southeastern KS extending back into portions of central KS.
646 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 223 AM CDT Our surface cold front continues to shift southeastward across central IL and IN early this morning. In its wake northwesterly winds are ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass. High temperatures both today and Sunday will be around 80 degrees, and overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s outside of Chicago.
Dry and warm weather will continue today but a cold front will cause westerly winds to be noticeably stronger this afternoon/evening compared to recent days.
702 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Low pressure will move east out of the Great Lakes today, with a cold front moving through the area this morning. High pressure will build east across the region this afternoon through Sunday night.
648 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in drier and cooler weather. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday.
An area of high pressure over the region is producing clear skies and seasonal temperatures. The high pressure will drift eastward across the region today with increasing southerly winds developing over the western Dakotas. An approaching low pressure system from the west will strengthen the LLJ along the Missouri River, mainly after 6Z Sunday. There will be good instability ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor of must unstable CAPE of 1000-2500 J/KG. The instability does shift southwest of the CWA as storms develop along the cold front. Strong northwesterly winds will follow the cold front with gusts exceeding 45 mph possible over the western CWA. A low pressure system, and attendant cold front, will be sweeping eastward into Minnesota.
450 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 (Today and Tonight) A cold front, which is passing through Lubbock as of 230 am, will continue to move southeast towards our forecast area this morning, and hi-res models indicate that the front will make it into our northern or possibly central counties by late morning before stalling. Convergence along the front, in addition to day-time heating induced instability, may be enough to overcome subsidence from the upper level ridge, resulting the chance for a few isolated thunderstorms/showers late this afternoon and early evening north of a Sterling City to San Saba line. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will continue over the region today, with the 850 mb thermal ridge similar in strength to yesterday.
The moisture will likely spread slightly further north up the Colorado River Valley tonight but overall the higher PW values will stay confined to eastern San Bernardino/southeastern Clark and southern Mohave Counties through Sunday night.
More seasonable high temperatures are forecast for today, especially in northeast New Mexico where a backdoor cold front remains stalled.
This trough will begin to interact with our northern zones later tonight in the form of showers and thunderstorms.
Short Term Update - Surface ridging will remain across the area this afternoon. Day time heating over Florida and Cuba will weaken the ridge across our area causing a col and variable winds to develop likely just west of the island chain. Rain chances will remain slim due to the background deep layered ridging and mesoscale effects focusing convection over Florida and Cuba. A ridge across South Florida will try to hold a synoptic southeast to south flow across Keys waters this afternoon.
Surface observations at 07z show the cold front that brought widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday, was located from northwest Indiana to southwest Illinois. A secondary cold front with even cooler air and 50 degree dewpoints behind it, was starting to drop southeast into northern Iowa. Dewpoints will continue to fall through the day, with readings in the lower 50s area wide by sunset. With an ideal radiational cooling setup and current/developing drought conditions, kept lows on the lower side of guidance with readings dropping into the lower 50s. Flow then transitions to zonal before a deep trof moves into the western US. Discussion: Cooler and drier air will be in place at the start of the period as NW flow drives the weather.
1018 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Higher rain chances are forecast for today, as ridge aloft and drier mid level air that limited storm development yesterday have shifted farther south.
Cold front currently from east central OK through far NW AR with post frontal VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings. Several updates issued this morning to adjust for convective and cold frontal trends. This region will be the focus in the near term while further storm development along the cold frontal boundary may wait until late afternoon or into early evening hours given strong low level capping noted on 12z OUN sounding.
Cold front has continues to make steady progress south into this afternoon and currently is situated along or just to the north of I-40.
237 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Upper ridging continues over Texas and New Mexico but the upper ridge is flattened by upper troughs moving over the northern part of the country. A cold front is moving across the Texas panhandle but the cooler air isn't expected to impact this area today.
Despite the higher relative humidity values of 35 to around 45 percent, the Grassland Fire Danger Index Values may jump into the high category over our far western counties because of the higher afternoon winds out of the northwest behind the cold front. Upper troughing will be the dominant feature over the region through the work week. Periodically, the northern plains will be in the northwest flow side of the trough which means heights may nudge up or down. At the surface, this translates to cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s.
Main concerns Sunday will be with Fire weather as winds look to become gusty across se Wy and the panhandle ahead of a cold front that will pass across late Sunday.
/issued 450 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front, which is passing through Lubbock as of 230 am, will continue to move southeast towards our forecast area this morning, and hi-res models indicate that the front will make it into our northern or possibly central counties by late morning before stalling. Convergence along the front, in addition to day-time heating induced instability, may be enough to overcome subsidence from the upper level ridge, resulting the chance for a few isolated thunderstorms/showers late this afternoon and early evening north of a Sterling City to San Saba line. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will continue over the region today, with the 850 mb thermal ridge similar in strength to yesterday.
Areas around and north of I-20 may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but overall the highest coverage is expected to be across portions of central Georgia.
208 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 The remnants of former tropical cyclone Laura will pass by to the north of our region today. High pressure will briefly return on Sunday providing warm and slightly drier conditions.
249 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 The remnants of former tropical cyclone Laura will pass by to the north of our region today. High pressure will briefly return on Sunday providing warm and slightly drier conditions.
Deterministic runs predict a weak upper trough over the WRN Gulf of Mexico to dissipate Sunday, as an upper level ridge gradually builds over the region.
(This evening through Sunday) Cold front continues to move slowly south/southeast through southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon. Slightly cooler, or less hot conditions, expected as well Sunday.
Mid morning temperatures responding more solar insolation have warmed into the lower 80s, with SW-W winds of 5-10 mph. The 5h ridge collapses as westerlies shift south through the Ozarks into the upper TN valley. A larger more organized MCS will track east through the mid MS valley into the lower OH and TN valley Sunday morning.
The baggy upper-level trough pattern continues with the upper low centered off the Central CA coast, per latest water vapor satellite imagery.
304 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 High pressure center continued to slide east acrs the MO RVR Valley and squeeze drying northwesterly boundary layer flow down acrs the region, with a lot of low to mid 50 sfc DPTs noted acrs the CWA. Model guidance depicts the evolution of a broad longwave trough across the central CONUS early to mid week.
249 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Cold front has continues to make steady progress south into this afternoon and currently is situated along or just to the north of I-40.
Summary: Warmer on Sunday with a few strong to severe storms possible on Sunday evening.
On Sunday, a strong upper level trough will move over the northern Great Plains. A fast moving cold front, currently positioned southern Alberta, will reach Nebraska around the same time. A narrow band of dew points in the low 60s will advect northward ahead of the front, which will be intersected by the advancing cold front in north central Nebraska in the early evening. After the passage of the front, the lower atmosphere will be very dry, with dew points in the 30s in the area. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s as well.
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Pretty nice weekend to round out August with cooler and less humid air under the influence of high pressure building in from the northern plains. Surface cold front accompanies the trough, with the NAM/GFS/EC all on good agreement with sliding it across the local area between 12-18z. Looks like a decent shot for rain - better to the north under the influence of the upper level trough - but thunder chances look minimal.
Upper trough will begin to move eastward off the east coast this afternoon with mainly westerly flow across the area through Sunday. Given the higher moisture values with PWATS approaching 2. 25 inches coverage should be on the higher side of coverage. A few locations might jump into the low 90s if the sun can come out.
1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 223 AM CDT Our surface cold front continues to shift southeastward across central IL and IN early this morning. In its wake northwesterly winds are ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass. High temperatures both today and Sunday will be around 80 degrees, and overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s outside of Chicago.
Weak boundary currently sitting over our east expected to be main focal point of development early this afternoon, although very late in the day a cold front currently well north will get into the action. Precipitation chances in the form of showers and thunderstorms, however, will continue this afternoon as a cold frontal boundary pushes southward toward our area.
Guidance is suggesting earlier onset Sunday on gulf breeze convergence enhanced by Bermuda ridge extension in the gulf.
With much of ArkLaMiss on the edge of the heat under the persistent ridging over the SW. Even though the guidance has come in a couple degrees cooler.
152 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front will move southeast across the region today, ushering in drier and cooler weather. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday.
Winds will ease and clouds will dissipate around sunset as high pressure drifts across the area tonight. As the ridge slides east and low pressure develops over the western Plains, southeast flow will increase late tonight across western MN and spread east Sunday. The approaching trough will advance eastward across the northern Plains Sunday and Upper Midwest Sunday night. Strong forcing with a sharp trough will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon over the Dakotas. The trough will swing northeast as it becomes negatively tilted Sunday night, allowing the best forcing to likely bypass our CWA to the north. Also, a cluster of thunderstorms could dive southeast along a warm front along the Missouri River from South Dakota into eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and eastern Kansas.
356 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 (Issued 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020) Tonight through Sunday Night: High pressure will roll across the Great Lakes region with dry conditions expected through the period. In the upper levels the region will become dominated by a rather weak ridge bringing near zonal flow.
Sunday is slated to be a bit warmer and more humid across central and eastern SD as warm air advection strengthens ahead of the approaching low pressure systems digging into central SD. Main focus is on this system's resultant chance for scattered Tstorms developing Sunday afternoon and night with a narrow axis of 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE, along and ahead of the associated cold front tracking across south central and southeast SD. However the weather pattern finally shifts toward cooler weather overall.
344 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 This afternoon's convective coverage should be in waning phase as much of the area has become worked over from convection and ouflow boundary flushing the lower moisture convergence. Bermuda ridge extension axis through the central gulf will first suppress nocturnal land breeze near shore and augment gulf breeze onshore flow for possible early onset of showers and thunderstorms along and near the coast Sunday morning. While rain chances will be indicated on the high side, should not be an all day rain, with wettest period in the early afternoon and some canopy debris rainfall lingering through the late afternoon before dissipation.
Due to rain, cloud cover and advection of cooler and drier behind the boundary, today has been noticeably cooler than recent days with highs only expected to reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees this afternoon.
There appears to be a good chance with the latter as they will be supported by an eastward-moving upper level short wave trough and will be moving into increasingly rich low level air with modest relative inflow. Highs are expected to be about 3-5 degrees warmer most areas - the exception being the southeast corner where cold advection is negligible this afternoon and the northeast where slightly backed surface flow may keep temperatures close to today's highs.
204 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front will set off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, some with gusty winds.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb subtropical ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas tonight through Sun night.
Aside from a very small chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, across mainly our Big Country counties, the short- term forecast remains dry, with slightly cooler temperatures. As for temperatures, MOS guidance data this cycle present forecast highs for Sunday perhaps a degree or two cooler than forecast highs for today; thus, a Heat Advisory, for Sunday, doesn't look necessary, for any of our counties.
Several updates issued this morning to adjust for convective and cold frontal trends. This region will be the focus in the near term while further storm development along the cold frontal boundary may wait until late afternoon or into early evening hours given strong low level capping noted on 12z OUN sounding.
436 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front is south through eastern KY late this afternoon, and showers have developed ahead of it. The showers/thunderstorms will end from north to south early this evening, and drier and cooler air will start to make its way in behind the cold front.
An approaching cold front will move into eastern Oregon during the late afternoon / early evening hours, and will move east through the night. Surface winds variable 10 kts or less, becoming west to northwest 10-20 KTS with gusts to 25 kts at KBNO, KBKE, and KMYL after 20z, KEUL and KBOI after 30/00z, and KTWF/KJER after 30/06z, following a cold front.
Weak boundary currently sitting over our east expected to be main focal point of development early this afternoon, although very late in the day a cold front currently well north will get into the action. coupled with a weak cold front that moves into the state.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 88 72 85 72 / 20 50 70 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 86 69 83 70 / 50 40 60 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 85 70 82 70 / 50 40 70 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 83 65 81 65 / 20 20 50 80 40.
During peak heating, the high resolution convection allowing models continue to show isolated convection across much of the area except the far west. A trough will dig southeast across the northern Rockies Saturday night and Sunday. The associated strong cold front is expected to push into northern Wyoming by 12Z Sunday if not a bit earlier and reach the Divide by mid afternoon. In wake of the front expect much cooler temperatures, breezy northerly winds, and a quick shot of some light rain mainly over the northeast sections of the forecast area.
A dry cold front continues to move through the Northern Rockies.
303 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A cold front will set off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, some with gusty winds.
A few sites should rise into the lower 90s over the next few hours, before starting to decline in the evening. Muggy conditions are forecast tonight, with lows only in the lower 70s.
Confidence lowers late this afternoon and evening as a cold front causes scattered showers/storms to redevelop. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 88 72 85 / 30 50 50 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 86 69 83 / 40 40 40 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 85 70 82 / 40 20 40 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 83 65 81 / 80 30 20 50 80.
1134 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A strong, dry cold front will bring windy conditions and elevated fire concerns for Saturday.
Cloud coverage will decrease behind the front as drier air moves in, and overnight lows will be noticeably cooler. Dry and comfortable conditions are forecast Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure in control.
A cold front slides in on Sunday, and brings gusty winds and temperatures near average for the start of the week. A ridge reaching in to the region by midweek brings quiet weather conditions, and high temperatures return to the 90s.
Kept temps above normal for tonight with most of the lower valley remaining around 80 to lower 80s for overnight lows.
/issued 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) Aside from a very small chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, across mainly our Big Country counties, the short- term forecast remains dry, with slightly cooler temperatures. As for temperatures, MOS guidance data this cycle present forecast highs for Sunday perhaps a degree or two cooler than forecast highs for today; thus, a Heat Advisory, for Sunday, doesn't look necessary, for any of our counties.
751 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 High pressure will briefly return on Sunday providing warm and slightly drier conditions.
1017 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Deep layer ridging persists across the Florida Keys, although the low-level ridging has relaxed somewhat. Those locations which go calm overnight will fall into upper 70s, whereas the lower to mid 80s will be more common.
915 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 (Issued 915 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020) Another weak cold front is moving south through srn WI at this time. Gehring (Issued 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020) Tonight through Sunday Night: High pressure will roll across the Great Lakes region with dry conditions expected through the period. In the upper levels the region will become dominated by a rather weak ridge bringing near zonal flow.
528 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 This seems to be the last hot day before the approaching cold front and shift in the weather pattern. Widespread high temperatures were observed in the low 90s for most of the regions. The cold front is already noticable through SE Alberta and SW Saskatchewan. Tonight, the gusty winds from the south will go in to a brief lull or light and variable for just a few hours before the cold front sweeps down through the region.
639 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 The remnants of former tropical cyclone Laura will pass by to the north of our region today. High pressure will briefly return on Sunday providing warm and slightly drier conditions.
354 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 This seems to be the last hot day before the approaching cold front and shift in the weather pattern. Widespread high temperatures were observed in the low 90s for most of the regions. The cold front is already noticable through SE Alberta and SW Saskatchewan. Tonight, the gusty winds from the south will go in to a brief lull or light and variable for just a few hours before the cold front sweeps down through the region.
900 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A drier and cooler air mass will take hold through Sunday.
642 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Pretty nice weekend to round out August with cooler and less humid air under the influence of high pressure building in from the northern plains. Surface cold front accompanies the trough, with the NAM/GFS/EC all on good agreement with sliding it across the local area between 12-18z. Looks like a decent shot for rain - better to the north under the influence of the upper level trough - but thunder chances look minimal.
550 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A drier and cooler air mass will take hold through Sunday.
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 A drier and cooler air mass will take hold through Sunday.
645 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 (This evening through Sunday) Cold front continues to move slowly south/southeast through southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon. Slightly cooler, or less hot conditions, expected as well Sunday.
/Tonight through Sunday/ High pressure, scattered cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and lower humidity are the main weather stories for today into tomorrow. The cooler, but near-normal, temperatures and lower humidity will persist throughout much of the upcoming week.
627 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 High pressure will move through the Northland tonight and depart Sunday.
Tonight and Sunday The short term forecast will remain fairly quiet, as high pressure conditions keep the area dry. Breezy conditions in place this afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range, will come to an end this evening as the atmosphere begins to decouple and the center of the high moves overhead. Sunday, high pressure will be on its way east, but winds will remain light. Temperatures will be similar to today and fairly close to normal, with highs in the lower to middle 70s. Mean long wave trough will dominate the northern CONUS and western Great Lakes region through the work week.
coupled with a weak cold front that moves into the state.
A cold front will continue to move through the Northern Rockies today causing gusty westerly winds at all the terminals until around 30/03z. A dry cold front continues to move through the Northern Rockies.
/issued 332 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb subtropical ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas tonight through Sun night.
605 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Cooler and less humid weather will continue the rest of this weekend over central and southeast IL as weak high pressure settles into IL late tonight and slowly drifts east on Sunday.
958 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 High pressure will move through the Northland tonight and depart Sunday.