Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
456 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 (Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will be in place across West Central Texas as another cold front passes through the area.
635 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 An upper ridge will move across the forecast area this morning with the upper flow transitioning to southwest by afternoon. A cold front will stretch along the MS River Valley this evening as moisture begins to surge northward into the forecast area. As a deep trough moves from the central states into the east. the cold front will progress across GA on Thursday. With such a sharp trough there will possibly be a few thunderstorms across north and central GA later tonight and Thursday. 5 inches on the highest peaks.
Temperatures are already in the upper 40s to low 50s this morning, and most areas will see highs reach the low 60s this afternoon despite increasing cloud cover. Surface winds are expected to increase by mid morning, but until then, the low level jet will justify the mention of wind shear. There will be a band of heavier rain just ahead of the cold front that could reduce vis to IFR.
316 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 An upper level trough is over the Rocky Mountains and the Northern and Central Plains. The base of the trough is over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas which has resulted in breezy southwest winds across the area. The upper trough will continue to dig southward today and will result in a cold front moving into the area this afternoon. The upper trough will begin to pass to the east on Thursday with temperatures across the area remaining cool with highs mostly in the 50s.
517 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain returns Thursday, before changing to snow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a crossing cold front. A ridge, ahead of a deepening Central CONUS trough, should maintain dry weather today. This low should then track N along the front as it crosses our region Thursday. For the higher terrain areas of WV, there is a better potential for warning level snow accumulation.
As tomorrow's cold front approaches the region, southerly (and then southwest) winds will begin to increase across the waters.
Current temperatures were a little cooler than what we were forecasting, but now that the wind finally veered onshore, the max temperatures for this afternoon are reasonable. As this low deepens, it will drag a strong cold front across the MS Valley and central Gulf Coast today. One final day of generally good boating conditions ahead of a very strong cold front late Thursday.
Cronce (Issued 354 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020) Today through Thursday: Low pressure will strengthen as it tracks from the Plains to north central Wisconsin today. A dry slot will work its way into southern WI later this afternoon as the low gets into western WI.
Slightly warmer weather and lighter winds are expected Thursday into the weekend. Warmer temperatures south of the Mogollon Rim though will be experience a bit stronger wind compared to northern zones.
Today will see an increase in cloud cover as flow aloft increasing from the southwest ahead of a digging mid-upper level trough. The High Wind Warning that has been issued for the mountain zones of East Tennessee looks to be in good shape with no changes planned at this time. VFR conditions are forecast during the next 12 hours at all sites, and winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 48 50 22 33 / 10 100 100 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 49 52 21 28 / 0 90 100 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 46 50 19 28 / 10 90 100 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 45 55 18 25 / 10 60 100 70 20 TN.
Strong high pressure will settle over the Great Basin for the end of the week.
252 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 A 986MB low pressure as of this writing was centered near Minneapolis, Minnesota and continued to move northeast. A 1023MB high pressure center was building southeast from Alberta, Canada. As the low pulls slowly away tonight will expect a continued weakening gradient and as a result, slowing wind speeds.
Elsewhere, the high wind warning has been expired across the southern Black Hills, Foot Hills, and far southwestern SD, but did keep the Custer County Plains in the high wind warning through the day. Winds will gradually diminish from west to east today as the trough shifts eastward. Upper ridging rebuilds over the western CONUS for the end of the week, resulting in mild weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas.
The highest winds were in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas earlier this afternoon, with the occasional wind gusts near 50 mph across our area. Any cloud cover (or not) won't have much impact on temperatures, as the cold air advection will take care of the cooler temps.
High pressure will build into the region and winds will drop Thursday afternoon and evening.
The next question will be the longevity of the highest winds. Have trended towards the cooler end of guidance for lows as radiational cooling should be more than efficient. Surface ridging spills into the area tomorrow in the wake of today's system and should lead to a much quieter weather day.
Surface analysis late this morning places a warm front bisecting the Mid-South late this morning near the Mississippi River. Southerly winds are already beginning to increase across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Can't rule out some flurries occurring across areas mainly east of the Mississippi River as an upper trof moves through the region. Temperatures will be frigid with expected highs ranging from near freezing to the mid/upper 30s. Christmas Day will not be much warmer as arctic high pressure settles over the area. In fact, areas near Paris, Tennessee may not see highs get above freezing. Winds will turn around to the south as the high shifts east. Models are a tad slower with the next cold front.
Some low clouds will produce MVFR conditions toward the end of the period ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area late Thursday. As tomorrow's cold front approaches the region, southerly (and then southwest) winds will begin to increase across the waters.
Strong cold front is knocking on our doorstep, with 1 pm surface analysis showing it about to cross the Iowa border. Some earlier clearing has made its way over to the Taylorville to Champaign area, helping to mix down the low level jet. We did reach 60 degrees in a large area of west of I-55, but temps should be below freezing in all areas west of I-57 by midnight and in the teens by morning along and north of I-72.
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Strong cold front just to the west of the Dallas/Fort Worth area around 10:50 am cst. /issued 602 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020/ 12Z 23DEC20 TAFs Showers and tstorms associated with a cold front expected later today. A cold front approaching the region today will bring rain chances back into the forecast, starting this morning in southeast Texas. Finally, behind the cold front, winds will be quite strong, with sustained winds over 20 mph expected. Dry and cool weather is forecast for Christmas Day, with morning lows at or below freezing in most places along and north of the I-10 corridor.
Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only topping out in the 30s.
Latest sfc obs show a pre-frontal trough has moved through the area, making timing of fropa difficult. /issued 316 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020/ An upper level trough is over the Rocky Mountains and the Northern and Central Plains. The base of the trough is over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas which has resulted in breezy southwest winds across the area. The upper trough will continue to dig southward today and will result in a cold front moving into the area this afternoon. The upper trough will begin to pass to the east on Thursday with temperatures across the area remaining cool with highs mostly in the 50s.
1153 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 (Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will be in place across West Central Texas as another cold front passes through the area.
255 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Rapidly deteriorating conditions taking place! Gusty winds and a few showers here and there across the area ahead of deep low pressure and a strong cold front plunging into southeast MN and northeast IA. As of 2 pm, deep low pressure (~985mb) was located over Wabasha MN with a strong cold front extending southward through northeast IA. The low will continue to push northeast into northern WI/Lake Superior this evening and into Ontario by Thursday morning. Heaviest deformation snow axis with this low will be across south central into northeast MN with the eastern periphery edging into our northwest area. Some lingering snowshowers/flurries expected Thursday in cold cyclonic flow as the low pulls northeast into Ontario. Christmas Eve looks dry and cold as a ridge of high pressure build in from the west.
Slightly warmer weather and lighter winds are in the forecast for Thursday and the remainder of the holiday weekend. The promised cold front has arrived. Warmer temperatures south of the Mogollon Rim though will be experience a bit stronger wind compared to northern zones.
High pressure remains in control. /Issued 635 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020/ An upper ridge will move across the forecast area this morning with the upper flow transitioning to southwest by afternoon. A cold front will stretch along the MS River Valley this evening as moisture begins to surge northward into the forecast area. As a deep trough moves from the central states into the east. the cold front will progress across GA on Thursday. With such a sharp trough there will possibly be a few thunderstorms across north and central GA later tonight and Thursday. 5 inches on the highest peaks.
Ridge of high pressure is currently along the coast with cold northerly flow aloft over our area.
1137 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 For 12/23/2020 18Z TAF Issuance KHGX and KPOE radars showing scattered showers developing across much of the region late this morning, well ahead of a cold frontal boundary set to move through later this evening and through the overnight hours. /issued 1132 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020/ Strong cold front just to the west of the Dallas/Fort Worth area around 10:50 am cst. A cold front approaching the region today will bring rain chances back into the forecast, starting this morning in southeast Texas. Finally, behind the cold front, winds will be quite strong, with sustained winds over 20 mph expected. Dry and cool weather is forecast for Christmas Day, with morning lows at or below freezing in most places along and north of the I-10 corridor.
Today will see an increase in cloud cover as flow aloft increasing from the southwest ahead of a digging mid-upper level trough. The High Wind Warning that has been issued for the mountain zones of East Tennessee looks to be in good shape with no changes planned at this time. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 50 22 33 21 / 100 100 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 52 21 28 17 / 90 100 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 50 19 28 18 / 90 100 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 55 18 25 13 / 60 100 70 20 10 TN.
A gentle northeast to east breeze accompanies dew points in the lower to mid 60s. From synopsis: An expansive high pressure cell along the entire Eastern United States will slowly retreat into the western Atlantic Ocean, with a lengthy ridge axis sagging down the Sunshine State and offshore into the Bahamian chain by late Thursday. Thereafter, a strong cold front will move swiftly eastward and through the Gulf of Mexico, before blasting through our entire area early Christmas Day.
113 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Monitoring cold front progression this afternoon across the forecast area. Expect the cold front to continue south through the remainder of the forecast area this afternoon with final passage over the Rio Grande later this evening. Cold front will allow for another local pressure gradient/gap wind event through GDP this evening. Have maintained the High Wind Warning for the pass and adjacent Delaware Mtns for the aforementioned time frame. Trough axis will deepen to our east with lower heights still residing overhead through tomorrow, leaving temps around 5F below normal on average (Widespread 50s). By Christmas day, a slow rebound will occur as ridging across the SW US extends back into west TX and continues through the rest of the weekend.
249 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 A strong cold front will move through the outlook on Christmas Eve. Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, while flurries may be seen as far south as the ATL metro.
Satellite showing some high clouds riding over top of a ridge centered just offshore into the forecast area, which will continue through this morning and into the early afternoon. Upper level ridge will continue to build into the the region this morning and center over the forecast area by tonight. This should help strengthen shallow inversions in the Columbia Basin/Gorge and adjacent valleys overnight, with patchy freezing fog likely developing tonight in these areas. Inversions will also lead to a cold airmass pooling in the lower elevations which will keep colder than normal temperatures in these areas. Patchy freezing fog possible late tonight for the Columbia basin sites.
Satellite showing some high clouds riding over top of a ridge centered just offshore into the forecast area, which will continue through this morning and into the early afternoon. Upper level ridge will continue to build into the the region this morning and center over the forecast area by tonight. This should help strengthen shallow inversions in the Columbia Basin/Gorge and adjacent valleys overnight, with patchy freezing fog likely developing tonight in these areas. Inversions will also lead to a cold airmass pooling in the lower elevations which will keep colder than normal temperatures in these areas.
219 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Post frontal temperatures this afternoon have peaked in the 40s to the low 50s across the region. A cold night is ahead as the trough exits to the east and winds ease significantly by sunrise tomorrow. Northwest flow aloft associated with ridging over the Mountain West, will help keep temperatures seasonably cool, despite ample sunshine and light westerlies.
158 PM MST Wed Dec 23 2020 The latest water vapor images show the strong upper low over northwestern IA moving toward the northeast. Upstream, ridging is over the western CONUS with some warm-advection clouds spilling toward the CWA. Currently, the gusty northwest winds continue to slowly diminish, with the high wind warning no longer in effect. After the system exists this evening, a ridge will build toward the CWA with warm advection through Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day.
225 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s across the area thanks to breaks in the cloud cover and an elevated southerly wind in advance of a strong strong cold front. Rain chances will increase ahead of the cold front with a threat for severe weather - including tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. The cold front should arrive by these times: Woodville by 8 pm Beaumont. High pressure will settle in for Christmas with cold morning lows in the near 30 north to the lower 30s south.
1110 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front will sweep south across the area this morning with much cooler air overspreading the area and strong, gusty north winds.
Temperatures are already in the upper 40s to low 50s this morning, and most areas will see highs reach the low 60s this afternoon despite increasing cloud cover.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system is moving across the nation during the short term forecast period. The better dynamic support aloft will remain situated further north along the peninsula with the mid- level trough axis and the upper level jets forecast to remain north of the area. Temperatures will climb a bit higher on Christmas Eve compared to the last couple of days with portions of the area reaching into the lower 80s.
252 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 The cold front is currently moving through the eastern Ozarks at mid afternoon, with colder drier air pushing in behind it. Despite seeing sunny skies, Christmas Eve will be a cold raw day with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark. Highs likely will again struggle to make it to the freezing mark over the eastern Ozarks, while highs will top off in the lower 40s over southeast Kansas and western Missouri.
Cooler daytime temperatures will occur Thursday under a mostly cloudy sky, but a return to above normal readings is expected Christmas Day and this weekend. The main impact of these mid and high level clouds will be cooler high temperatures on Thursday.
Look for very cold temperatures Thursday morning before slightly warmer conditions and lighter winds grace northern Arizona on Thursday. After cold early morning lows a passing high pressure system will deliver lighter winds and a bit of a warm-up on Thursday.
/issued 219 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020/ Post frontal temperatures this afternoon have peaked in the 40s to the low 50s across the region. A cold night is ahead as the trough exits to the east and winds ease significantly by sunrise tomorrow. Northwest flow aloft associated with ridging over the Mountain West, will help keep temperatures seasonably cool, despite ample sunshine and light westerlies.
A dynamic extratropical system currently plowing through the central CONUS brought the passage of a cold front early this morning, steady post-frontal CAA, and advisory/borderline warning wind gusts to the region today. The southern finger of a deformation zone that stretches up into Minnesota is bringing light snow to portions of north-central Kansas, though recent KUEX radar imagery shows this precipitation rapidly eroding from the northwest as drier air floods in and the dynamics associated with this low pull off to the northeast. Northwest flow continues through the day on Thursday off a fresh snowpack in Nebraska, thus trended on the slightly cooler side of the guidance envelope for highs. In addition, stratus/stratocumulus look to flood southward around sunrise and should aid in keeping temps on the cooler side.
The low pressure system that brought us the widespread strong winds currently across the central U. High pressure continues to dominate the Southeast, as a strong low pressure cell and it's associated cold front, extending from from the Midwest through Central Texas, steadily pushes to the east.
/Issued 308 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020/ Gusty northwest winds behind a cold front will gradually diminish after sunset, so we plan to allow the wind advisory to expire at 6 pm.
/Issued 249 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020/ A strong cold front will move through the outlook on Christmas Eve. Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, while flurries may be seen as far south as the ATL metro.
Flow aloft will slowly weaken Thursday as an upper level ridge over the Great Basin creeps eastward. For Thursday, warmer and dry conditions will prevail across Colorado as the ridge from the Great Basin nears. Northeast Colorado will be under ridging, subsidence, and decreasing northwest flow aloft Thursday night.
High amplitude ridging continues to develop along the Pacific coast today, and slides eastward this evening and tonight. Not convinced these temps are warm enough with ridging and winds coming into play.
The cold front is currently moving through the eastern Ozarks at mid afternoon, with colder drier air pushing in behind it. Despite seeing sunny skies, Christmas Eve will be a cold raw day with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark. Highs likely will again struggle to make it to the freezing mark over the eastern Ozarks, while highs will top off in the lower 40s over southeast Kansas and western Missouri.
337 PM MST Wed Dec 23 2020 With an upper level ridge building over the region, expect drier and warmer air to move into the region through Christmas Day.
Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate numerous rain showers moving across the Mid-South late this afternoon with a line of showers developing along the cold front in Western Arkansas. Rain chances will continue to increase into tonight as the aforementioned cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Cold air advection behind the cold front will bring much colder air in behind the cold front. Temperatures on Christmas Eve will be quite cold with highs ranging from the lower 30s north to the middle to upper 30s south.
Otherwise, clear conditions carry into Christmas Eve, as a transient ridge slides across the Great Basin. Temperatures will begin to rebound from yesterday's cold front, though, anticipate highs to continue running several degrees below normal.
The overall mid-level pattern remains amplified through the rest of the work week, with ridging aloft bringing in milder air for Christmas Day.
548 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 The strong storm system is moving into the Great Lakes Region, while high pressure was situated from along the Sask/Manitoba border south into western ND. A 986MB low pressure as of this writing was centered near Minneapolis, Minnesota and continued to move northeast. A 1023MB high pressure center was building southeast from Alberta, Canada. As the low pulls slowly away tonight will expect a continued weakening gradient and as a result, slowing wind speeds.
The High Wind Warning previously in effect across the area has been cancelled as a result. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the low to upper teens. High temperatures Thursday rebound back into the low to mid 40s. upper level ridging moves in with little if any cloudiness.
308 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Gusty northwest winds behind a cold front will gradually diminish after sunset, so we plan to allow the wind advisory to expire at 6 pm.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the low to upper teens. High temperatures Thursday rebound back into the low to mid 40s. upper level ridging moves in with little if any cloudiness.
These storms are along a strong cold front moving across the region at around 30 mph. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate numerous rain showers moving across the Mid-South late this afternoon with a line of showers developing along the cold front in Western Arkansas. Rain chances will continue to increase into tonight as the aforementioned cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Cold air advection behind the cold front will bring much colder air in behind the cold front. Temperatures on Christmas Eve will be quite cold with highs ranging from the lower 30s north to the middle to upper 30s south.
435 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Rapidly deteriorating conditions taking place! Gusty winds and a few showers here and there across the area ahead of deep low pressure and a strong cold front plunging into southeast MN and northeast IA. As of 2 pm, deep low pressure (~985mb) was located over Wabasha MN with a strong cold front extending southward through northeast IA. The low will continue to push northeast into northern WI/Lake Superior this evening and into Ontario by Thursday morning. Heaviest deformation snow axis with this low will be across south central into northeast MN with the eastern periphery edging into our northwest area. Some lingering snowshowers/flurries expected Thursday in cold cyclonic flow as the low pulls northeast into Ontario. Christmas Eve looks dry and cold as a ridge of high pressure build in from the west.
540 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Areas of light snow showers and flurries will impact locations mainly along and west/northwest of the Flint Hills corridor through late afternoon, in response to cold advection and steepening low- level lapse rates associated with an anomalously deep upper trough across the region. Otherwise, another chilly day is expected Thursday, as the influence of the expansive Mid-America upper trough will still be felt across Kansas.