Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also based on the temperatures at the top of the mixed layer at 21z that was forecast by the NAM and GFS it looks like the highs today will end up being only a couple of degrees cooler compared to the high temperatures yesterday (Thursday). Tonight it will be clear and the lows will be at or slightly above the seasonal normals.
237 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Rain will continue to be a threat across areas near and south of I-70 today, and near the Indiana border this evening, as a cold front slowly moves into the Ohio Valley region.
A cold front will move through around mid-day Friday with NW winds increasing to around 15 kts.
A strongly positive AO is not favorable for deep arctic air intrusions into the CONUS, thus airmasses behind recent cold fronts, including fropa today, is more a mix of Pacific maritime and continental polar origin. A longwave trough axis aloft extends down the central part of the country this morning, with embedded PV maxes over the western Dakotas and at the basal portion of the trough over west TX/northern old Mexico. The southern PV max will shift east and will gradually weaken while the northern system dives southeast over the lower Missouri valley tonight.
1022 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Current surface map places cold front across eastern Montana. Large scale subsidence across the area Friday as trof moves east of the area. Low level warm advection kicks in Friday night as upper level ridge builds across the North Plains.
Carney Split flow upper air pattern across North America features a deep trof centered across the Southern Plains into Mexico with a pair of northern disturbances across Ontario and Alberta.
KCBX radar showed weak echoes in northeastern Malheur County and the Lower Treasure Valley.
The cold front will cross the area from late morning through the afternoon with NW winds around 15 kts that will continue into the evening hours.
1031 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Rain will overspread the region ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Upper Midwest and a surface front running southwest to northeast through Indiana.
1106 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
302 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Another wet and dreary day is in store for southern Indiana and central Kentucky during the short term as deep SW flow continues to pump moist air from the Gulf ahead of a cold front that currently stretches across IL/MO/AR.
Conditions will improve during the afternoon Friday, as a cold front sweeps across. Heading into Friday afternoon, conditions will gradually improve as a cold front sweeps through Arkansas from the Plains.
High level clouds continue to stream into the region early this morning, with current temperatures running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Dry conditions will prevail across the region today under upper level ridging.
Cold front approaching the Ohio river will continue to push slowly southeast across the forecast area today. However, with such light amounts expected, warm antecedent surface conditions and air temps near or just above freezing, still not expecting any real travel impacts. High pressure will build east across from the southern Plains into the southeast U.
Morning water vapor shows a short wave trough across the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. The trough is pulling in a bit of Pacific moisture across South Central Texas this morning. In addition ahead of the cold front which is currently moving into the Hill Country patchy fog developed overnight along and east of I-35. Saturday will be a beautiful sunny day with light winds and highs around 70 degrees as the upper trough moves east out of Texas.
This jet was immediately downstream of an upper low over far west Texas. For today, the west TX upper low will lift east and gradually weaken, as a midlevel dry slot associated with an approaching northern branch low enters. As the axis of the upper low passes through midday Saturday, midlevel lapse rates will steepen, though moisture will remain scant and measurable precip chances below mentionable thresholds.
538 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Overnight/early this morning, widespread cloud cover has been common across central, south central, and southeast Kansas in the wake of the elongated frontal zone stretching all the way from the Great Lakes into southwest Texas ahead of a mid/upper level trough that will slide eastward into the Middle Mississippi River Valley during the day today. Additionally, temperatures will be a little cooler today than yesterday, though will likely still top out in the mid 40s to near 50, which remains above normal for early January. A ridging pattern will set up across the central CONUS on Saturday setting the stage for a dry weekend across the area with mostly sunny skies and temperatures remaining above normal for the time of year.
420 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Latest analysis shows the upper trough moving away to the east of the forecast area early this morning. Low and mid-level warm advection will increase over the forecast area tonight as an upper ridge builds over the northern plains. High temperatures will reach the mid-40s to mid-50s on Saturday due to enhanced mixing behind a pre-frontal trough.
Across southeast Texas, the hazard has shifted from rain to fog where the lower atmosphere has stabilized between the precipitation to the east and the primary frontal boundary which is analyzed just south of Dallas and won't push through the area until sometime late this afternoon. The band of precipitation will slowly push out of the area by mid morning, but mid level moisture will remain in place allowing for overcast skies and isolated light showers to continue through late afternoon before the cold front swings through the area shunting the moisture off to the east. Clearing skies expected overnight as cooler, drier air filters into the region.
533 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Saturday with crossing low pressure. The rain should end as snow Saturday night after the passage of the low. The low should track NE across the Upper OH Valley region tonight and Saturday. The axis of the upper trough is expected to cross the region Saturday evening. Expecting less than an inch for most locations, though the higher terrain SE of PIT could see a couple of inches with some brief upslope enhancement.
As the upper-level trough that brought all this rain races off to the east, zonal flow sets up over the eastern CONUS through this weekend. Northeasterly flow sets up over the Tennessee Valley, advecting cooler, dry air in for the weekend into the start of the work week.
Forecast soundings across southern and western MN feature a saturated column and very deep Omega throughout most of the lower 25 kft of the atmosphere. An upper trough will follow for tonight before ridging builds in Saturday.
Highs Friday will be in the low 30s across the north to the low 40s south of I-80.
829 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Saturday with crossing low pressure. The rain should end as snow Saturday night after the passage of the low. The low should track NE across the Upper OH Valley region tonight and Saturday. The axis of the upper trough is expected to cross the region Saturday evening. Expecting less than an inch for most locations, though the higher terrain SE of PIT could see a couple of inches with some brief upslope enhancement.
Building high pressure will result in dry weather and temperatures finally rising to above normal levels beginning this weekend. A strong upper level ridge centered about a 1000 miles west of northern Baja will quickly edge into the Desert Southwest today into Saturday.
This ridge is expected to dampen notably on Saturday, as upper-level jet streak coming ashore near northern California tonight moves east to the Rockies by Saturday afternoon. At the surface, light to moderate northwest winds will continue this morning, briefly becoming west and southwest this afternoon and evening as weak surface trof moves across northern sections. High temperatures expected to be close to normal today, mainly in the lower-50s. More significant lee trof develops on Saturday over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico with breezy southwest winds developing across northwest half of the Combined Panhandles Saturday afternoon.
333 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Building high pressure will result in dry weather and temperatures finally rising to above normal levels beginning this weekend. A strong upper level ridge centered about a 1000 miles west of northern Baja will quickly edge into the Desert Southwest today into Saturday.
751 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough running from the Texas Panhandle through the Dakotas and into Manitoba. A ridge of equal amplitude runs from off the coast of southern California to central British Columbia. Farther West another large trough is developing south of the Aleutian Islands. Overnight the ridge will move in and warm up the atmosphere aloft. However, it won't be until the ridge begins to exit with the trough moving in behind it that this air will mechanically mix down leading to a huge warm up Saturday into the 40s and 50s.
429 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 An upper ridge is building over the Great Basin today which will leave Colorado under moderate to strong north and northwesterly flow aloft. Model cross sections indicate that the strongest winds will stay over the higher terrain and high foothills, so lower elevations will only see short bursts of gusty winds through the afternoon. Temperatures should remain similar to yesterday, as warmer air is not expected to arrive until tomorrow. Upper ridging is over the forecast area on Saturday.
The strongest vort will be south of the area, upper trough linking the southern and northern systems will move gradually east today and give some light snow to much of E ND into the RRV and parts of NW MN, though quite light amounts with half inch possible. Upper level trough passing east of the area this evening and winds will turn southerly ahead of the next system as 500 mb ridge moves builds in Saturday.
Focus then turns to tonight with a closed low currently moving southeast out of south central Canada. The NAM/GFS are in reasonable agreement with the depth and track with this low moving southeast across the CWA late tonight into Saturday morning. A cold front is currently moving across the CWA, so with clouds and cold air advection today, temperatures will not rise much.
Also, a few pockets of brief freezing rain/drizzle cannot be ruled out this morning.
A dry cold front will pass through Central California Saturday night.
Thus, current temperatures are running cooler than yesterday at this time, and relative humidity values are also running lower. Surface winds are currently light offshore (although gusty in the higher terrain) but will switch to southerly later today as a weak upper trough approaches the coast. This will bring cooler high temps to certain areas, like Santa Rosa, for example. A change to cooler and wetter weather (in the north) will set in tonight when the southern portion of a frontal system brushes across Northern California. Longer range models indicate a cooling trend with a trough setting up over the West.
354 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Moisture streaming over the mid-level ridge of high pressure over the West continued to bring some light snow showers to areas in Colorado's northern and central mountains early this morning. Quiet weather prevailed elsewhere, though stratus remained entrenched over the Colorado River Basin, eastern Uinta Basin, much of the Yampa River Basin as well as portions of the Uncompahgre and Gunnison basin and, finally, the lower elevations of Archuleta and La Plata Counties. Inversions holding the low level stratus in place unlikely to be disrupted this morning so updated sky forecast to account for cloudiness. Temperatures moderate today and Saturday as warmer air is advected into the area.
407 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a sharp upper level trough over the Southern Plains that was continuing to result in moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall over some of the same area that received more than four inches of rain yesterday. Temperatures today will remain on the warm side topping out in the low to mid 60s. With cooler and drier air filtering into the region tonight, Saturday morning lows will bottom out in the 40s which is still warmer than normal.
Otherwise, an upper level open wave trough centered over Texas this morning will pass south of the area today as another system digs out of the Northern Plains. The approach of the northern stream system will allow for increasing CAA today, resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 40s.
LIFR/IFR conditions will become VFR by mid to late afternoon, as a cold front passes through Arkansas today. Today Through Saturday Night Early this morning, a cold front was located from north central Arkansas through the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. Upper trough digging down into the Southern Plains will push the front out of the region later today, with any lingering rainfall coming to an end this afternoon or evening.
While mountain areas will become breezy again today under increasing northwest flow aloft, the lower elevations will see relatively light winds aside from some of the wind prone areas along the lower east facing slopes. Temperatures today will be a little cooler for most areas in spite of warming aloft today, due to limited mixing. Upper ridge translates in overnight before getting cut down as an upper jet translates through the western U.
428 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Scattered bands of convection is currently lingering in the area with stratiform based showers behind the cold front currently just entering the CWA. In the wake of the front, a decent shot of cooler air will bring temperatures and dewpoints down. Fog may be an issue tonight and tomorrow morning as the cold front progresses through.
432 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Moisture streaming over the mid-level ridge of high pressure over the West continued to bring some light snow showers to areas in Colorado's northern and central mountains early this morning. Quiet weather prevailed elsewhere, though stratus remained entrenched over the Colorado River Basin, eastern Uinta Basin, much of the Yampa River Basin as well as portions of the Uncompahgre and Gunnison basin and, finally, the lower elevations of Archuleta and La Plata Counties. Inversions holding the low level stratus in place unlikely to be disrupted this morning so updated sky forecast to account for cloudiness. Temperatures moderate today and Saturday as warmer air is advected into the area.
Thus, current temperatures are running cooler than yesterday at this time, and relative humidity values are also running lower. Surface winds are currently light offshore (although gusty in the higher terrain) but will switch to southerly later today as a weak upper trough approaches the coast. This will bring cooler high temps to certain areas, like Santa Rosa, for example. A change to cooler and wetter weather (in the north) will set in tonight when the southern portion of a frontal system brushes across Northern California. Longer range models indicate a cooling trend with a trough setting up over the West. SFO Bridge Approach. High pressure off the California coast will weaken as a frontal system approaches the Pacific Northwest. After the front moves through stronger high pressure will build off the California coast and northern California on Saturday.
412 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 (Today and Tonight) An upper level low is currently moving slowly east across west and west central Texas early this morning. Lift associated with the low is resulting in light rain or sprinkles across the Permian Basin. Temperatures will be cooler today behind a cold front that is moving through the area now, with temperatures mainly in the 50s. For tonight, as the upper low moves east, skies will clear, and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to drop mainly into the low to mid 30s, with a few locations below freezing.
/issued 304 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ Upper level trough of low pressure passing through the area early this morning.
403 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Cold front approaching the Ohio river will continue to push slowly southeast across the forecast area today. However, with such light amounts expected, warm antecedent surface conditions and air temps near or just above freezing, still not expecting any real travel impacts. High pressure will build east across from the southern Plains into the southeast U.
There were a couple of weak vorticity centers in the trough. Models show this trough amplifying as it moves southeast today, suggesting a closed low developing into western IA this afternoon and down to northern MO tonight. There has been some warming in the deeper mixing behind the cold front over parts of SD, where temperatures have risen to the mid and upper 30s. Winds will increase after passage of the cold front and will go with gusts of 40 to 45 mph, at least part of the day, across northeast NE.
Today Through Saturday Night Early this morning, a cold front was located from north central Arkansas through the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. Upper trough digging down into the Southern Plains will push the front out of the region later today, with any lingering rainfall coming to an end this afternoon or evening.
Overnight/early morning conditions are quite warm as the region sits underneath a ridge. Ridge axis is quite moist with generous mid to high level cloud cover evident on satellite and likely to continue through the morning.
300 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Latest analysis shows the upper trough moving away to the east of the forecast area early this morning. Low and mid-level warm advection will increase over the forecast area tonight as an upper ridge builds over the northern plains. High temperatures will reach the mid-40s to mid-50s on Saturday due to enhanced mixing behind a pre-frontal trough.
With the PV anomaly moving over the area after sunset, the potential for snow squalls will be minimized due to loss of surface heating enhancing the low-level lapse rates. High clouds are obscuring the low MVFR ceilings underneath but based on surface observation trends, the low clouds seem to be moving away from the eastern KS/west central MO terminals.
Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend as ridging sets up across the Desert Southwest.
/issued 245 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ At 06Z, WV imagery showed the secondary trough centered directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/area radars showing the core just east of KMAF. W/current obs/trends, and the position of the trough, total accumulations may be less than previously thought, but still enough to justify the current advisory. SHRA will taper off late this afternoon over the Stockton Plateau as the trough exits to the east, and a dry spell will set in and persist through the extended. Although temps should top out right around normal this afternoon, they will increase modestly over the next few days as weak ridging follows the trough.
Freezing rain, snow and rain are being reported with temps still above freezing around the Missouri River. Temperatures are a challenge today as the caa has not affected the temps along the Missouri, yet, so Mobridge, Pierre and places in between are still warmer than their forecast highs. After the clipper exits this afternoon, high pressure will transition over the region briefly at the sfc. On Saturday, upper ridging will build in as southwesterly sfc winds increase ahead of the next front. The ridge and good mixing will result in a temperature pop with highs jumping into the 30s and 40s.
Otherwise, warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected today.
High pressure will move over Arizona today through Saturday with dry weather and warmer temperatures.
A cold front wl bring a windshift to the nw and clearing skies from the west after 08Z Saturday. /22/ Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a sharp upper level trough over the Southern Plains that was continuing to result in moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall over some of the same area that received more than four inches of rain yesterday. Temperatures today will remain on the warm side topping out in the low to mid 60s. With cooler and drier air filtering into the region tonight, Saturday morning lows will bottom out in the 40s which is still warmer than normal.
304 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Upper level trough of low pressure passing through the area early this morning.
/issued 412 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low is currently moving slowly east across west and west central Texas early this morning. Lift associated with the low is resulting in light rain or sprinkles across the Permian Basin. Temperatures will be cooler today behind a cold front that is moving through the area now, with temperatures mainly in the 50s. For tonight, as the upper low moves east, skies will clear, and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to drop mainly into the low to mid 30s, with a few locations below freezing.
508 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Rain will continue to be a threat across areas near and south of I-70 today, and near the Indiana border this evening, as a cold front slowly moves into the Ohio Valley region.
This system was producing snow and bit of freezing drizzle west of the forecast area. Trough moving across the region this afternoon bringing snow, especially for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.
The latter system is expected to close off into an upper low this evening, which will move right over central KY Saturday afternoon. First off though, the low clouds and deeper moisture tonight will keep rain chances high, though any further rainfall amounts will be fairly light, probably ranging from another tenth to a quarter inch this evening and overnight. especially as a surface cold front crosses the region. As the upper low moves aloft, we thicken up more with cloud cover as lapse rates steepen.
Expect a gradual clearing from NW to SE as trough axis pivots eastward with drier, northwest flow aloft aiding in regional clearing. /issued 245 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ At 06Z, WV imagery showed the secondary trough centered directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/area radars showing the core just east of KMAF. W/current obs/trends, and the position of the trough, total accumulations may be less than previously thought, but still enough to justify the current advisory. SHRA will taper off late this afternoon over the Stockton Plateau as the trough exits to the east, and a dry spell will set in and persist through the extended. Although temps should top out right around normal this afternoon, they will increase modestly over the next few days as weak ridging follows the trough.
951 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Latest analysis shows the upper trough moving away to the east of the forecast area early this morning. Low and mid-level warm advection will increase over the forecast area tonight as an upper ridge builds over the northern plains. High temperatures will reach the mid-40s to mid-50s on Saturday due to enhanced mixing behind a pre-frontal trough.
158 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 High pressure is now well to our east as a cold front currently located in Alabama heading out our. Sea fog will be a concern overnight as DP temperatures will be in the low 70's while water temperatures are in the upper 60's to low 70's.
A cold front will arrive on Saturday. This will bring light snow to the high country with up to 3 inches possible in some locations.
1040 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Rain will continue to be a threat across areas near and south of I-70 today, and near the Indiana border this evening, as a cold front slowly moves into the Ohio Valley region.
With little snow cover here, we bumped up forecast highs a little over the previous forecast, into the lower 50s. Close on the heels of a warm front, a cold front pushes through the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.