Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front extending from WI southwest through northern IA will sag southward tonight, but it appears that convection associated with this feature will remain north of the forecast area. The latest guidance has trended slower with the approach of an upper level low/PV anomaly which will be located across the central Plains Monday night. Given this location, the better isentropic ascent associated with the low-level jet will focus into the theta-e boundary located across KS and southwest MO.
High pressure centered across north central North Dakota has kept conditions dry and quiet today. The center of the high will slowly slide off to the east tonight and Monday with a bit better moisture/clouds filling in behind it. Even with some clouds and a rain shower or two around, temperatures should be able to get up into the low to mid 80s across much of the area (slightly cooler across north central Minnesota). A cold front is forecast to move into north central ND by late afternoon/early evening, helping to set off tstms.
A weakening trough will move east across northern Utah tonight through early Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the region beginning late Monday, with moisture increasing from the south during the middle and latter portions of the week.
857 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A cold front will exit across the maritimes overnight with a secondary cold front crossing the region Monday.
The boundary will washout late tonight into Monday morning then a warm front will lift back north into southern and central Iowa.
High pressure was in charge at the surface. Monday night should remain quiet with the ridge still lingering over the area.
Area of convection approaching 02/22Z located over ern portions of the Highland Rim moving into the upper Cumberland Region has a more of a east northeast movement trend.
1039 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure through Monday with warm and somewhat drier air.
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 General upper troughing eases east of the Upper Great Lakes through Mon. Quiet weather expected into Mon as high pressure expands from Hudson Bay to the Upper Great Lakes. Sct-bkn cu clouds expected on Mon with lake breezes, especially off Lk Superior, as the high builds overhead.
Over the higher terrain there are some higher based showers but convective activity has ended. A strong upper ridge will remain in place over the southwestern U. High temperatures across the plains should again reach the lower to mid 90s, as this typical summer weather pattern prevails. Models all show the upper ridge center moving into the CWA from the west and southwest Monday night through mid week.
Well off to our west convection was beginning to get underway over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico as well as down around Cloudcroft as of 1930Z. Attention with then turn further to the west and northwest to see if the higher terrain activity is able to organize and translate into West Texas again tonight. Where the low-level flow is progged to back more substantially this evening, there remains a decent signal that a MCS will form over the northwest Texas Panhandle and move southeastward, potentially clipping at least our northeast zones around Childress late tonight (after midnight).
It will continue to be very warm into Monday with highs in the mid/upper 90s and lows in the lower 70s. Gusty south winds are expected to continue Monday with a lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line.
Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the lower 90s with continued humid conditions with heat index values around 100 degrees or a bit higher.
Hot week on tap for much of the forecast area with a slow, but gradual increase in moisture anticipated as strong ridge of high pressure parks itself over the top of the Central Rockies. This Models remain in good agreement with the ridge overhead scenario which allows moisture to slowly encroach northern along the ridge axis or spine.
815 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak back door cold front will sag across the state Monday. The front will be followed by a brief period of dry, slightly cooler and less humid conditions for the 4th of July accompanied by light wind. It's still on the humid side over the lower Susq Valley, which is really not all that unusual for July. After a quiet night with just some patchy high based strato or alto cu clouds, a cold front will drop down from the north on Monday.
The cold front will then stall over IL and IA for Mon-Tue with a pleasant enely sfc flow and dry conditions over srn WI. In addition, a cold front is expected to slide southward across the area through the middle evening hours. Mesoscale models seem to focus convective development in the area of the outflow boundary, perhaps helped by frontogenesis response with the cold front. High pressure moving across Lake Superior later tonight into Monday should bring quiet weather to the area. Light easterly winds will bring cooler temperatures on Monday near the lake, with near normal temperatures inland.
Enhanced westerly flow around the southern periphery of the low tracking across the northern great lakes is supporting a poorly organized band of innocuous shower activity over Lake Michigan and western Lower this afternoon.
Dewpoints were in the low to mid 60s so getting a bit more humid with WSW flow. A cold front pushing into southern WI south of Madison and Milwaukee will move southward into northern IL during tonight. Other models are further north and more isolated with this convection and leaned in this direction with just slight chances NE of I-74 this evening while better chances will be ne of CWA where better upper level forcing expected and closer to surface cold front. A weak upper level low/trof to track east into the central plains on Tue, into IA/MO on Wed and into IL Wed night and ohio river valley Thu.
Farther south and east, rain chances will be less as mid level ridging has more influence, and greater insolation will make heat stress the primary concern as heat indices approach 105 in some cases. Max temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid-90s most afternoons, due to a warm and humid airmass remaining in place across our region.
With mid-level ridge getting suppressed more southward, the moist southwest flow with better upper level support, should allow showers/storms to get off to an earlier start tomorrow morning with scattered to numerous storms expected by afternoon and continuing through the evening hours.
In the area where the clouds and thunderstorms have been, it has been a little cooler.
For temps, night time lows will be slightly cooler each night, most notably in the north.
812 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will push down into the area through Monday and then stall out across the region through mid week. Expect lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. The cold front will continue to sag slowly south through the day on Monday and eventually stall out across central portions of our fa. Weather will be influenced by an upper trough that will be positioned over the Eastern CONUS for most of the period.
737 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast on Monday. A cold front will start to advance southward toward the area on Monday morning. Monday's cold front will remain stationary near the Mason-Dixon line through much of the period, and a chance of showers/storms will linger across southern counties.
The better moisture transport is forecast to occur across western and into parts of central Kansas where the low level jet is orientated. Storms should move off the High Plains and move east into Western Nebraska and Kansas tonight. The resulting WAA should be more organized and with the thetae ridge atop of the area this should provide an environment that will support overnight clusters/complex of storms. Rain chances will decrease by Weds as the mid level trough passes. Heights will rise by mid week with upper ridging building in from the western U.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will move to the west-southwest across Central Cuba tonight.
1131 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak back door cold front will sag south across the state Monday. The front will be followed by a brief period of dry, slightly cooler and less humid conditions for the 4th of July accompanied by light wind. It's still on the humid side over the lower Susq Valley, which is really not all that unusual for July. After a quiet night with just some patchy high based strato or alto cu clouds, a cold front will drop down from the north on Monday.
The mid to upper level ridge will hold over the region through the forecast period. The higher moisture axis located along the coast this morning is not anticipated to be as strong on Monday morning. The high temperatures will be a category above normal on Monday.
Otherwise, high pressure building in from the north will provide light winds through the TAF period. Enhanced westerly flow around the southern periphery of the low tracking across the northern great lakes is supporting a poorly organized band of innocuous shower activity over Lake Michigan and western Lower this afternoon.
1133 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast on Monday. A cold front will start to advance southward toward the area on Monday morning. Monday's cold front will remain stationary near the Mason-Dixon line through much of the period, and a chance of showers/storms will linger across southern counties.
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure dominates through Monday with warm and somewhat drier air.
Per the NAM and GFS, the aforementioned weakness does allow some deepening of the low-level moisture up to about 700mb by early Monday morning.
Classic summer time pattern as high pressure dominates much of the Pacific with a thermal trough inland. Away from the coast many locations are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday, especially the South Bay and Salinas Valleys. High pressure currently to the west will continue to build over the region with increasing 500mb heights. The marine layer will move inland again tonight, but could be slightly compressed given the building high pressure.
The zonal flow aloft will gradually shift southwesterly as the ridge over the Four Corners region strengthens, while a trough deepens to our northwest. It will remain hot in our area through the week, but at least the lower heights aloft will take the edge off of the heat.
High pressure aloft will build across the Intermountain West through midweek, becoming centered near the Four Corners - which is a typical mid-summer pattern.
1017 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will push down into the area tonight through Monday and then stall out across the region through mid week. Expect lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. The cold front will continue to sag slowly south through the day on Monday and eventually stall out across central portions of our fa. Weather will be influenced by an upper trough that will be positioned over the Eastern CONUS for most of the period.
Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will settle slowly south, and into VA and northeastern NC Wed and Wed night. High generally in the lower 90s, with a few locations in the mid 90s. Low temps Monday night are again expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.
1010 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak back door cold front will sag south across the state Monday. The front will be followed by a brief period of dry, slightly cooler and less humid conditions for the 4th of July accompanied by light wind. It's still on the humid side over the lower Susq Valley, which is really not all that unusual for July. After a quiet night with just some patchy high based strato or alto cu clouds, a cold front will drop down from the north on Monday.
Otherwise, expect a drying trend over the next few days as an upper level ridge builds over the state.
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Have afternoon storms from the higher elevations continuing this evening. /issued 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ An upper ridge centered over southern New Mexico/northern Chihuahua will retrograde slowly westward through Monday as an upper trough over the Great Basin translates eastward into the central U.
Water vapor imagery currently shows a trough digging into the Desert Southwest with southwesterly flow aloft over the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the surface, observations show high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, with easterly surface flow over the CWA. Upper-level cloud cover will continue to expand across the area through the afternoon and into the evening as weak disturbances eject out of the western trough across the Great Plains into the Midwest and utilize increasing upper-level moisture. This cloud cover is expected to persist through tonight, leading to overnight lows likely being a couple degrees warmer than last night thanks to a lack of radiational cooling. If the cloud cover ends up being more dense than currently expected and temperatures are a little warmer, fog will not be as likely.
Not expecting any fog formation overnight as sct-bkn cirrus will stream off the closed upper low over the Land of Enchantment, and ENE winds will stay up at a solid 5 mph. This has included some gustiness at times, but winds/gusts should relax with nightfall as high pressure slides east and low pressure develops/approaches from the southwest. As a developing low pressure system approaches from the southwest Friday night, moistening down the column will begin gradually. It will take it awhile to get close enough, and for the surviving ridge of high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard to loosen its grip enough, for this to manifest into appreciable pops for our FA.
A cut-off low across northern New Mexico will continue southeast through Friday, as the main steering flow/jet stream in place near and north of the US/Canada border. Building upper-level ridging across the area will set the stage for continued WAA and thus above normal temperatures. Like the previous shifts, have continued to nudge highs warmer than inherited guidance on Friday due to favorable (dry) southwesterly winds.
451 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Current WV imagery depicts trough digging into the desert southwest with a closed low developing over the Four Corners region. Split flow develops as the trough digs into the southern US and the upper low meanders through the southern tier of the CONUS.
A narrow swath of clearing and mid level cooling on the north side of an upper level low is occurring across extreme southwestern Kansas this afternoon. Temperatures should bottom out in the lower to mid 40s tonight. Clearing can be expected Friday in the wake of this system, with highs in the lower 60s. Tranquil weather can be expected through Thursday, with upper level ridging developing over the Rockies and moving across the plains and into the Midwest during the week.
621 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a very healthy looking upper level low pressure system centered over Colorado/New Mexico moving eastward. Rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side due to the high based nature generally less than a quarter of an inch. Meanwhile an area of more widespread rain will develop and circulate around the main upper low itself.
High clouds began to overspread the area today as an upper level low dug south into the four corners region. SW flow aloft ahead of the low brought elevated moisture to the area. Closer to the surface, high pressure to the west kept the area dry and lower RH and temps into the 50s today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow with quiet weather through the period. Discussion: Closed low south of the area and limited CVA into the area will result in quiet weather for the rest of the period. Ridging above the H5 low will lead to a blocking pattern. With clouds expected to clear overnight, have trended a degree cooler tonight.
Discussion: High pressure across the region tonight will bring us a clear sky and light northeasterly winds. An upper level trough will become closed and cutoff from the westerlies across the southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday with upper- level southwesterly flow across the Tennessee Valley. Upper ridging will increase across the region ahead of the closed low to the west.
Infrared satellite imagery shows an extensive dry slot that has spread northeast over SW KS, ahead of the powerful cyclone over New Mexico. A narrow swath of clearing and mid level cooling on the north side of an upper level low is occurring across extreme southwestern Kansas this afternoon. Temperatures should bottom out in the lower to mid 40s tonight. Clearing can be expected Friday in the wake of this system, with highs in the lower 60s. Tranquil weather can be expected through Thursday, with upper level ridging developing over the Rockies and moving across the plains and into the Midwest during the week.
high pressure (1032 mb) is centered across southwestern Quebec Canada while a weak strung out trough of low pressure extends across the eastern Plains northeast into Wisconsin. Light winds and mostly clear skies this evening have allowed temperatures to already drop into the low and mid 30s east of I-75 in northern lower. With dry high pressure still the dominant feature, mainly clear skies are expected tonight.
Mild conditions continue across the Keys this evening as high expansive high pressure blankets the eastern United States. The combination of weak low level troughing over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and stronger low level troughing well northeast of the Bahamas is producing northeast to easterly breezes ranging from light to moderate across the forecast area. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period the weak trough to our west will wash out and move further west. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower 70s with dew points lingering near to slightly below 70 degrees. A ridge across the eastern United States will maintain northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
751 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022 High pressure will bring a period of dry weather which will last through the weekend. It will be considerably cooler than it has been earlier this week, but there will be a gradual warming trend through this weekend. High pressure sliding across the Ottawa Valley tonight and into northern New England on Friday will maintain fair weather across the region. This will result in favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight, with temperatures falling to near or below freezing for most areas, but a touch warmer near the lakes. Patchy valley fog may develop tonight, but expect coverage to be limited due to the dry air mass and below freezing temperatures. Friday will be warmer with highs in the 50s and light winds less than 10 mph.
1112 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022 High pressure centered over Lower Michigan this afternoon will drift to the east over the next several days, bringing a string of pleasant mid autumn days.
405 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through the weekend with a strong high pressure system overhead.
(Today) Upper low will track across central Texas during the day today bringing some rain chances to the area, mostly south of 40. Off and on showers can be expected to increase in coverage somewhat across southeast OK heading into the afternoon as the upper low approaches. Temperatures will be cooler across the south and warmer across the north this afternoon, due to the thicker cloud cover and rain. Bowlan (Tonight through Thursday) The upper low will begin to lift northeast tonight across the ArkLaTex Region. In response, rain chances will increase across southeast OK and west central AR in the vicinity of the low.
Otherwise, the large high pressure over the Great Lakes and the southeast Ontario region is ridging westward into southern Minnesota and the surface southeast flow is originating from the parent high, keeping the cloud bases high for central Iowa.
128 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Aviation - Fog risk Friday night A ridge of high pressure will be in place Friday night.
239 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Weak ridging moves across the state today, keeping conditions tranquil for most of the state.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Today and tonight will be active as an upper level low approaches the region. Associated jet will increase winds across the higher elevations this afternoon. Showers and storms will mostly move out of the forecast area by early Friday morning, but a few showers will still be possible in the northeastern Basin as the backside of the upper trough moves through. Winds will be strong and gusty behind the cold front into Friday morning across the SE NM Plains, thus a Wind Advisory will go in place for Eddy and Lea counties. Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the trough as it exits to the east into Friday.
456 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 High pressure centered over lower Ontario/Quebec into upstate New York will drift to the east over the next several days, bringing a string of pleasant mid autumn days.
157 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Overview: A robust upper level low -- centered in north-central NM (per 20Z WV imagery and SPC Mesoanalysis data) -- will dig SSE into west TX late tonight. then meander /nearly stall/ over portions of the lower- central MS River Valley (Sat-Sat night). Through Tonight: Light precipitation over northwest KS (mainly east of Highway 83) -- associated with diffluent flow aloft and/or cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern periphery of a ~100 knot jet streak in Oklahoma -- will wane/dissipate late this afternoon and evening (00-06Z) as the aforementioned upper low progresses SSE from NM into west TX. While additional precipitation /convection/ directly associated with the upper low will rapidly develop this evening.
1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a very healthy looking upper level low pressure system centered over Colorado/New Mexico moving eastward. Rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side due to the high based nature generally less than a quarter of an inch. Meanwhile an area of more widespread rain will develop and circulate around the main upper low itself.
Areas either side of a Yankton to Brookings line may carry the highest risk of this potential. Southerly winds again gust into the lower 20s at times, particularly north of I-90.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today as a deep occluded upper low approaches from the Ark-La-Tex region. Rain chances will steadily increase throughout the day tomorrow as the upper low gets cut off and lingers over east Arkansas.
High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid-50s to the lower 60s. It should be a fa-boo-lous weekend ahead, as a dry and warmer forecast remains for much of the forecast period.
1257 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 High pressure centered over Lower Michigan this afternoon will drift to the east over the next several days, bringing a string of pleasant mid autumn days.
1108 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Current WV imagery depicts trough digging into the desert southwest with a closed low developing over the Four Corners region. Split flow develops as the trough digs into the southern US and the upper low meanders through the southern tier of the CONUS.
1153 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022 High pressure anchored just northeast of the area maintains influence this taf period. A dry low level environment within prevailing, light eastearly flow favors continued VFR conditions with generally clear skies across the lowest 10k ft overnight.
309 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 High pressure will build southward into New England today and persist through this weekend, bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures and dry weather conditions.
100 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 High pressure will build across the region overnight through the weekend.