Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Under continued mostly sunny skies through much of day, Monday's high temps should rise well into the 30s over much of the west half of Upper Mi with cooler low 30s temps east, downwind of Lake Mi in a sw flow. Wed and Thu look dry and warmer thanks to increased ridging aloft. Late this week into this weekend is highly uncertain as models depict the upper ridge being attacked by multiple waves coming in from the W. Highs will be around 40F and lows should be near or just above freezing. As the high moves off to the east tonight, increasing w to sw winds above sfc based inversion will result in LWS at KIWD/KSAW. Winds will then diminish to under 15kt Mon afternoon thru Tue as a high pres ridge moves over the area.
519 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Short Term (Tonight - tomorrow night): Freezing rain is transitioning to rain as the freezing line is lifting north across the CWA. That freezing line currently extends from MCI to Moberly line. Areas north of that line will continue to see freezing rain into tonight however accumulations are expected to be limited mainly to untreated, elevated surfaces, and other objects. By sunrise tomorrow, the entire CWA will be above freezing and the upper level system that brought the weekend ice will move through the area. An associated cold front will move through the CWA tomorrow afternoon continuing shower chances and in fact a thunderstorm can not be ruled out.
Northwesterly winds between 1000 and 3000 ft off the surface have pushed the low level stratus up the Snake Plain into KJER and KTWF this evening.
644 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight.
Temperatures are greatly dependent on these winds, warmer where mixing is stronger and colder where winds are having a hard time increasing in the valleys. Models are indicating increasing boundary layer moisture along to ahead of the upper trough into west central and southwestern ND overnight towards 12Z, then continuing to expand east and slightly south during the day Monday. Am concerned there is potential for freezing drizzle as the low clouds develop, with dry air above the expected stratus coupled with forcing with the wave and sfc temperatures in the 20s. For now I left any freezing precipitation mention out of the forecast as still uncertain where and how much low stratus will develop.
507 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Dry weather and seasonal temperatures this evening before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front.
836 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight.
643 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build into the area bringing clearing skies for Monday.
Area of rain and freezing rain is currently moving through northeast and north central KS. Where temperatures are above freezing the rain has pretty much come to an end besides some drizzle and maybe an isolated shower. Where temperatures are below freezing minor ice accumulation is taking place, but the ice:liquid ratios are fairly low. The only exception would be far north central KS where temperatures hover around freezing through tomorrow morning. As the precipitation type turns over to rain for most locations tonight the main upper level low pressure lifts over the area. As the upper low tracks overhead a dry slot moves in from the southwest tomorrow afternoon.
but have at least risen several degrees above freezing across parts of northeast OK thus ending any further threat of icing. Veering low-level winds will allow warm front/higher surface dewpoints to surge north this evening and overnight. This is all in advance of a strong upper cyclone poised to eject negative-tilt style into the southern Plains tonight.
1027 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front this evening.
Clearing will continue from southwest to northeast tonight, as the upper low tracks northeast and associated dry slot continues to overspread our area. /issued 216 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper low has moved from northern Mexico to far West Texas this afternoon with convective activity ongoing from the eastern Big Bend region north through the Permian Basin and then into the southern Panhandle. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 40s across all of the forecast area and highs tomorrow will range from around 60 in the Big Country to the lower 70s south of Interstate 10. 15 (Monday night through next Sunday) By Monday night, models continue to indicate a cut off upper level low developing over Mexico to our southwest.
Upper ridge axis slides over our region by Monday, helping to lift the warm front north of our region. With the warm front lifting north, expect mid 60s south, with upper 50s to around 60 north for highs. Temps won't drop off much on Monday night ahead of the approaching cold front.
/issued 330 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Warm frontal boundary has only been pushed slightly to the north across extreme northern fringe of area as se winds 5 to 10 mph began over ne TX earlier today.
This one has been a bit stronger considering the starting point was along the Highway 82 corridor in central Mississippi.
854 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A warm front will push northward tonight into Monday.
829 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build over the area through tonight.
/Issued 232 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Transition to a wetter, but still much warmer than average, period does finally begin to evolve through the short-term forecast period. Flat upper ridge actually sharpens and builds back north into the southeastern U. tonight but the ridge axis shifts quickly east of the forecast area Monday putting the region under increasing southwesterly upper flow.
903 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Approaching upper low and cold front have begun to generate shwrs/isold tstms across our mainly nrn and wrn areas this evening. /issued 330 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Warm frontal boundary has only been pushed slightly to the north across extreme northern fringe of area as se winds 5 to 10 mph began over ne TX earlier today.
High pressure moving in behind this system will be of Pacific origin, so should stay with above normal temps as we head into Tue/Wed time frame.
942 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure overhead will shift to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Low pressure will track out of the southern Plains lifting a warm front north across the area on Monday night.
Warm front currently stretched from west to east across the mid state will lift farther northward tomorrow, allowing for penetration of drier air and VFR conditions by afternoon.
555 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Freezing line continuing to lift northward through region this afternoon. So freezing rain slowly changing over to all rain from south to north. Have expired/cancelled Ice Storm Warning and replaced portions over northeast MO, west central IL with a Freezing Rain Advisory til 6 pm. During the day on Monday, surface dewpts to rise into the low 40s to low 50s, decent low level jet and MU capes between 100 and 500 J/kg, so slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Decent WAA ahead of system on Monday with highs in the low 40s to upper 50s, a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
A strong low pressure system continues to build across the southern Plains Sunday evening. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, freezing rain will continue across much of the forecast area. Previous observations from this afternoon have indicated that while total accumulations of ice will be low, the freezing rain will cause a quick glaze on area roadways resulting in hazardous conditions. High temperatures will rise into the low 30s. As surface temperatures rise, there's another slight chance for precipitation to change over to freezing rain/sleet/wintry mix during the day. The blocking arctic high pressure and attendant ice storm move off east Monday night.
626 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure overhead will shift to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Low pressure will track out of the southern Plains lifting a warm front north across the area on Monday night.
Mid level ridge over Florida will weaken sightly as the high center drifts slightly southward.
605 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight and move east Monday. Low pressure will track north of the region Monday with a weak cold front crossing the area Monday night.
A strengthening low pressure system over West Texas will be shifting northeast through the plains states toward the Great Lakes on Monday. Increasing southerly flow in advance of this pressure system should push the cooler, saturated airmass farther north away from the Southern Appalachian region through the forecast period.
935 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build into the area bringing clearing skies for Monday.
812 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017 Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Rain and snow for the southern Nebraska panhandle tonight. It has been difficult to gather observed freezing rain reports. this was likely some freezing rain and snow mix. As for precip type, upstream observations show a brief period of freezing rain and at both the Imperial & Yuma Colorado observing sites. KSNY BUFKIT sounding supports at least the potential of a short period of freezing rain this evening.
The front is expected to lift north as low pressure currently over north central Texas moves north. When this low moves into southeast Kansas, the fog may break up before the advisory is set to expire. This one has been a bit stronger considering the starting point was along the Highway 82 corridor in central Mississippi.
A low pressure system originating in the Southern Plains will be the main focus early in the forecast period. Moisture will be limited tonight though with just scattered light showers early and a slight chance across the northern counties for freezing rain for a few hours late.
856 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Dry weather and seasonal temperatures overnight before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front.
1051 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight.
Areas of sea fog possible tonight over the cooler near shore waters.
WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary trough staying back to the west. This next trough will dig southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week as a West Coast trough kicks it east. At 19z the upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.
A low pressure system originating in the Southern Plains will be the main focus early in the forecast period. Moisture will be limited tonight though with just a slight chance across the northern counties for freezing rain for a few hours.
649 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low currently churning over far sw TX with strong upper diffluence lifting over the southern high Plains. Cold front is still down over southern TX and has moved little over last 24 hours. Temps are expected to stay at or just below freezing tonight for areas generally north of a Hutch to Marion line and this is where we'll keep the warning in effect overnight. By Mon afternoon, the upper low will be lifting across northeast KS, with the better precip chances over eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Main Aviation Hazards: Freezing rain/sleet potential in central Kansas tonight into Monday morning, LIFR conditions area-wide tonight into Monday morning, and a low-level wind shear threat at the ICT and CNU terminals late tonight.
The increase in south winds is in response to a short wave trof forecast to lift northward into the Plains States tonight.
635 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A warm front will push northward tonight into Monday.
WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S. /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary trough staying back to the west. This next trough will dig southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week as a West Coast trough kicks it east. At 19z the upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.
1009 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight and move east Monday. Low pressure will track north of the region Monday with a weak cold front crossing the area Monday night.
644 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front this evening.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. The well advertised low pressure system that will move into the Great Lakes during the week, has trended well to the south and east over the past several model runs.
659 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday night.
627 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure to the north will push a little cooler air into the forecast area Monday.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin for the first half of the week. A light northerly flow is over the eastern Great Basin this evening between a sharp ridge off the west coast and the departing trof moving into the plains. Considerable stratus covers much of the western and central valleys while the last of the deformation cloud cover behind the upper trof covers the eastern CWA. The upstream ridge shifts over UT by Tue eve with inversions lowering and an increasing chance of western valley fog as this occurs. The next trof still looks to arrive Thu morning.
1033 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure persists across the western North Atlantic and the Eastern United States. Meanwhile, a complex low pressure system is pushing northeast through Texas, with freezing rain along its northern flank and severe weather within its warm sector.
1003 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure to the north will push a little cooler air into the forecast area Monday.
538 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight.
/issued 216 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper low has moved from northern Mexico to far West Texas this afternoon with convective activity ongoing from the eastern Big Bend region north through the Permian Basin and then into the southern Panhandle. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 40s across all of the forecast area and highs tomorrow will range from around 60 in the Big Country to the lower 70s south of Interstate 10. 15 (Monday night through next Sunday) By Monday night, models continue to indicate a cut off upper level low developing over Mexico to our southwest.
Broad long wave trough with multiple circulation centers is settling across the western CONUS this evening.
408 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday.
358 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Rain will spread across the forecast area today as low pressure tracks across SE Ohio. The low will track east of the area overnight and dissipate.
A low pressure system from the gulf coast will move north northeast during the next 24 hours. The low center will cross Mid TN, directly over BNA around 12Z. The rain will be moderate at times as the low approaches. After passage of the low pressure, winds will become west northwest.
343 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure will build toward the area from the west today and will crest over Maine this evening.
1253 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday.
The latest RAP and HRRR sounding for the area does show a good dry layer between 700 and 900 mb and likely dynamic cooling under the highest radar reflectivities is helping to bring down some sleet pellets with the rain.
1116 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 An upper low will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight, but influence will be limited to high clouds moving through the area as precipitation will remain well to the south and east of the CWA. A cold front currently located over central Nebraska will make steady progress and move through the forecast area tonight, beginning a markedly colder period for the remainder of the week. If this does occur, surface temperatures should still be a few degrees above freezing, so no impacts would be expected. Highs will be cooler in the middle 30s to lower 40s, even with mostly sunny skies.
Given the persistent low cloud cover, have opted to remove freezing fog overnight, even though it can't be completely ruled out for some areas. Cold upper level trough will remain over the region for moist northwest flow aloft.
/issued 914 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ A low pressure system, currently located in Central Louisiana, will lift northward tonight bringing widespread rain to the Mid-South. Temperatures will hold steady overnight with readings in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
The quasi-stationary front has shown no indications of moving northward as a warm front, at least not yet. This was allowing cooler air and an easterly flow to dominate longer over the area. Will keep the low clouds and have kept the mention of VCTS just after 8z for all terminals and lasting 4 hours or so.
1119 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 04z Surface observations indicate the cold front along a line from Atlantic, IA to Beatrice, NE. Surface cold front was approaching northeast Nebraska at 20Z stretching from eastern South Dakota through the southwest corner of Nebraska into northeast Colorado.
The deep layer mean anticyclone centered over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas has not changed much in position or intensity during the last 24 hours, and is dominating local weather.
231 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Vigorous short wave and associated surface cyclone will lift northeast from Lower Mississippi River Valley in the overnight hours and up through Middle Tennessee and spread rain over a good part of the region which will taper off from the west beginning around noon today. A cold front currently back in western Missoui down into Oklahoma will move this way on the heals of the surface cyclone and pass through the Mid State this evening and this will drop temps below freezing tonight in many areas but no precip.
348 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 A low pressure system will lift northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Middle Ohio Valley region by noon today.
Winds will become westerly and increase with the passage of a cold front prior to daybreak with the strongest winds at KMSY and especially KNEW.
236 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 A cold front was barreling across the state during the overnight hours. This front will usher in much cooler air for today with highs struggling to climb out of the low 40s with continued low level cold air advection.
Current surface analysis shows arctic cold front now southeast of the forecast area, with gusty northwest winds and slowly falling temperatures behind it. Upper level analysis shows low over south central Canada, with broad trof sweeping across the northern high plains right now.
333 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Latest surface observations indicate a cold front oriented northeast to southwest across the forecast area early this morning. This cold front is progressing southward and will move through the entire area by mid morning. Ahead of the cold front, low level moisture has been sufficient for low stratus and fog. Temperatures will be cooler today. The much colder arctic air mass is now flowing into the northern Great Plains and will continue to move south behind a second stronger cold front.
1124 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday.
At the surface, a strong cold front stretches from eastern SD into western Nebraska and is quickly pushing southeast. Cold front is expected to push through the forecast area tonight as the upper energy over the Rockies lifts across the northern Plains and into the northern Mississippi Valley. Any precip associated with the upper low lifting over TX is expected to stay southeast of the forecast area. A strong cold front currently pushing across Central KS will continue to push south-southeast across the forecast area for the overnight hours. This strong cold front will shift the winds around to the NW with some gusty winds for a few hours after the front moves through. Some of the Hi-Rez model solutions and current obs show some stratus developing just ahead of the cold front for areas along and east of the KS Turnpike.
The upper low pressure across northern Mexico will continue to slide northeastward and open as a wave as it nears the Gulf States later tonight. This low pressure will slide east of our area late tonight and into Tuesday.
827 PM PST Mon Dec 5 2016 Cloudy and not as cool tonight, but cooler on Tuesday due to more cloud cover and prevailing onshore flow.
1134 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Cold front is on a bit faster pace and observations behind the front are showing stronger wind speeds out of the north. A cold front will move through the terminals after midnight local time resulting in a gusty north wind. /issued 256 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ The upper level low that brought rain to the area to start the weekend is on the move this afternoon, crossing the Rio Grande around Del Rio/Eagle Pass and will track toward East Texas this evening. In addition, an upper low will dig southeastward over the Dakotas.
To our northwest, a cold front is pushing southeast through northern Missouri and central Kansas, and will sweep across the area this morning.
Northwest upper-level flow and a ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific will keep the area dry and slightly warmer than average through Tuesday.
319 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Cold front associated with upper low over the Dakotas was through the area at 08Z with strong pressure rises and gusty winds behind. Have trended a bit warmer on temps based on latest short-range guidance.
Weak cold front passes through later in the evening shifting winds towards the north, less than 10 knots.
1146 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Arctic cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon. Even strong winds just to the west in the western panhandle of Nebraska due to the higher elevation.
A deep upper level low and associated winter storm will move across northern Minnesota today. Strong Arctic high pressure behind this system will extend from Alberta Canada southeast into Montana, northeast Wyoming, and the western Dakotas. An upstream upper level trough currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will drop southeast across Idaho and northern Utah. Ahead of this trough, isentropic upglide will begin to develop from northern Colorado into Southern Wyoming.
Another cold front will move south across the area tomorrow morning, with northerly winds gusting to around 25 knots at KABI around 14Z. /issued 513 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ Conditions will continue to improve this evening and through the night as the upper low and associated rain chances passes to the east of West Central Texas. Another cold front will move south across the area tomorrow morning, with northerly winds and some redevelopment of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibilities through the morning hours. /issued 326 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The upper level low is shifting east into Central Texas late this afternoon and is taking the rain chances with it. Cold front moves through West Central Texas on Tuesday.
320 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery shows potent closed low rotating northeast over eastern North Dakota with trailing trough extending into western Nebraska. This system has allowed a strong cold front to drop southeast across the region followed by gusty northwest winds.
1018 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 04z Surface observations indicate the cold front along a line from Atlantic, IA to Beatrice, NE. Surface cold front was approaching northeast Nebraska at 20Z stretching from eastern South Dakota through the southwest corner of Nebraska into northeast Colorado.
352 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Latest observations show the first cold front has made its way through the Panhandles and in its wake, colder temperatures and windy conditions are expected throughout the day today with high temperatures dropping below average for early December.