Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today will be mild and breezy with a good chance of rain and snow with the passage of a cold front. Cold front is currently going through eastern WA into north Idaho. Valley temps are above freezing, but the temperatures aloft are cold so we should see a fair amount of non-accumulating snow for the next few hours. RJ 18Z TAFS: A cold front is bringing a wintry mix of precipitation with associated as it moves across the aviation area this morning and as as result spotty IFR ceilings and visibility may result near the more intense snow.
High pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the northern Gulf will continue eastward and will eventually settle across the region into tomorrow. It will not be quite as chilly tonight as it was last night, but lows will still be slightly cooler than normal, falling into the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs on Friday will be a tad warmer than today, reaching the low to mid 70s.
/issued 343 PM CST Thu Dec 23 2021/ Overall very pleasant weather today with high pressure covering much of the southeast CONUS. This high will move eastward, causing a slight increase of winds and return flow, slowly bringing in more moisture to the area. -BL Strong upper level ridging basically sticks in the Gulf of Mexico the whole entire forecast period.
309 PM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Gradient flow will increase ahead of a deepening low pressure system developing over the eastern portion of CO. The return of southerly flow has resulted in slightly warmer conditions today, and will continue to do so overnight. Overnight lows will bottom out above freezing tonight, ranging from 36 degrees in the Sand Mountain area to 44 degrees over NW AL. This will help usher in even warmer temperatures for the holiday weekend, with highs reaching the mid 60s on Christmas Eve and then into the lower 70s by Christmas Day.
Today through Friday Afternoon: Low-amplitude ridging was noted in this afternoon's satellite imagery, with high clouds streaming over the central CONUS. Despite this cloud cover, temperatures have climbed to the upper 40s to mid 50s and a few lucky spots to 60 degrees thanks to an advancing low-level thermal ridge. These warm temperatures are expected to continue into tomorrow, with slightly warmer temperatures thanks to decreased cloud cover in the afternoon.
852 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Light precipitation is possible tonight with a warm front.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 62 54 69 53 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 62 53 66 51 / 0 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 36 60 52 66 51 / 0 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 58 43 63 47 / 0 0 10 20 40.
The inversion noted in the sounding should be strong enough to last the night, and prevent the mixing down of a warmer/moister marine airmass. Even though temps won't be as low as last night, overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 50s. Highs on Friday a tad warmer, reaching the low to mid 70s. Winds around 5-10KT will veer E/NE overnight into Friday as high pressure builds across the region.
943 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Light precipitation is possible tonight with a warm front.
A lee trough is developing over the region this afternoon, with it expected to eject out of the area by Friday afternoon and southwest flow setting up. High temperatures will range from the low 60s in Yuma County to the low 70s in the southeastern part of the area. Highs will be slightly cooler, ranging from the mid to upper 50s. A couple upper level short wave troughs will move through the forecast area but will be fairly shallow or dry.
The 19z surface analysis shows 40+ dewpoints across eastern KS and MO, and this low level moisture is expected to stream northward to some degree in response to the broad low level cyclonic flow associated with the aforementioned WA PV anomaly. A repeat of this morning's frost is not expected either with cloudy skies overnight keeping road temps above freezing. The system in the base of the western trough, now off the CA coast, should cross the Rockies into the Plains late tomorrow enhancing the frontal boundary to our south, which will pass and end our recent warm spell.
Deep ridging is present and will continue to build into the southeastern region.
Gradient flow will increase ahead of a deepening low pressure system developing over the eastern portion of CO. The return of southerly flow has resulted in slightly warmer conditions today, and will continue to do so overnight. Overnight lows will bottom out above freezing tonight, ranging from 36 degrees in the Sand Mountain area to 44 degrees over NW AL. This will help usher in even warmer temperatures for the holiday weekend, with highs reaching the mid 60s on Christmas Eve and then into the lower 70s by Christmas Day.
Other than a weak disturbance aloft that might bring some isolated showers across Cumberland Plateau Region as Christmas Day progresses, ridging influences surface and aloft will keep mid state dry. , ask folks up in Midwest where temperatures are expected to be significantly below normal and below freezing throughout these next 7 days. As for this forecast period, no freezing winter like temperatures are in site across our entire forecast area with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing throughout. Warm air advection pattern will develop between a departing high pressure system and a developing front over the plains.
745 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the end of this week as temperatures gradually warm. Christmas Day will be breezy as a low pressure system passes to our north.
/Updated at 0544 PM CST Thu Dec 23 2021/ Tonight's forecast features a mostly clear sky (some cirrus) with lows near the middle 30s across East Alabama to the lower 40s across West Alabama. A surface pressure gradient will increase on Friday in response to high pressure centered just off the Southeast U. 89^GSatterwhite /Updated at 0241 PM CST Thu Dec 23 2021/ The weekend continues to look dry, and decreased rain chances in the mid week timeframe, as the upper level ridge is slightly slower to exit to the east.
719 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 High pressure will be in place across the southeastern United States tonight before sliding off the southeastern US coast late Friday.
343 PM CST Thu Dec 23 2021 Overall very pleasant weather today with high pressure covering much of the southeast CONUS. This high will move eastward, causing a slight increase of winds and return flow, slowly bringing in more moisture to the area. -BL Strong upper level ridging basically sticks in the Gulf of Mexico the whole entire forecast period.
It's associated cold front will advance southward to keep most of the precipitation north of the Missouri River as snow, but a mix of rain and snow is expected south of the river.
642 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Light precipitation is possible tonight with a warm front.
401 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Light precipitation is possible tonight with a warm front.
Cold front associated with a low pressure system in Central Canada is expected to move into northern Missouri Friday evening. Disorganized short wave embedded in the zonal flow is expected to move over the low level boundary leading to the development of light rainfall.
Temperatures along the island chain are mostly in the mid to upper 60s, with dewpoints hovering in the lower 50s. Winds on land vary from NE in the Lower/Middle Keys to NNW in the Upper Keys, at speeds of 10 mph or less. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered along the Carolina coast and sprawling from New England to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, temps appear to be on track to drop only a few more degrees by morning, reaching lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Other than a weak disturbance aloft that might bring some isolated showers across Cumberland Plateau Region as Christmas Day progresses, ridging influences surface and aloft will keep mid state dry. , ask folks up in Midwest where temperatures are expected to be significantly below normal and below freezing throughout these next 7 days. As for this forecast period, no freezing winter like temperatures are in site across our entire forecast area with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing throughout.
Warm and dry forecast is still on tap for tomorrow with near freezing low temperatures tonight.
We're running about a 20 degree range from north to south as the clouds in the north are helping to maintain warmer temperatures. These will no doubt come down by sunrise, but we'll probably be a little warmer this morning than originally thought.
South winds overnight near 10-14kts with the higher sustained winds and gusts likely across the TYR/GGG and TXK terminals.
/issued 756 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021/ Very quiet across the region today with high pressure remaining in control. High pressure over the region will keep pleasant conditions across the waters through the next several days with no headlines expected.
Warmer today a chance of rain this afternoon. Low pressure over the northern Plains will strengthen today and in doing so will draw up some warmer and more moist air in the state. We may see some fog develop as the higher dewpoints move over the colder ground.
Large area of rain presently over the lower Treasure Valley will continue moving northeast into the mountains, continuing there as snow above around 4500 ft. The cold front is still expected to move through overnight, resulting in snow at all elevations after sunrise. Latest mesoscale models indicating a chance for 1 to 2 inches of snow to fall at lower elevations from the lower Treasure Valley south and east into the western Magic Valley, but not all of this will stick.
258 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021 Low clouds and fog associated with a warm front expanded into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa during the early morning hours. Early morning temperatures varied widely, with readings near freezing in far northwest Illinois, to the upper 40s in far southeast Iowa and western Illinois. Discussion: A warm front will surge north through the region today, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures in the 50s to low 60s, despite low clouds and drizzle. For Christmas Eve, the trailing cold front will sweep through the area, with increased chances for precipitation, especially south. Light freezing rain cannot be entirely discounted, but the threat is low at this time.
1051 PM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 High pressure will be in place across the southeastern United States tonight before sliding off the southeastern US coast late Friday.
Axis of the sprawling high pressure ridge over the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic will sag south over the FL peninsula the next 24hr. This will lead to another dry day/night with moclear skies, slackening winds, slightly warmer temps, but still comfortable with rather low humidity. Maxes M-U70s and mins mainly L-M50s, with the far north/south a little warmer/cooler than that range. High pressure will press south and east of the area ahead of a weak cool front on Christmas Day.
Other than a weak disturbance aloft that might bring some isolated showers across Cumberland Plateau Region as Christmas Day progresses, ridging influences surface and aloft will keep mid state dry. , ask folks up in Midwest where temperatures are expected to be significantly below normal and below freezing throughout these next 7 days. As for this forecast period, no freezing winter like temperatures are in site across our entire forecast area with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing throughout. Warm air advection pattern will continue to develop between a departing high pressure system and a developing front over the plains.
Winds will increase through the afternoon with the strongest gusts being along and south of the highway 50 corridor. Highs today will be in the lower 70s up north to near 80 for areas along the Oklahoma border. With continued northwest flow aloft, the cold front from the short term will remain dry for the CWA not seeing any precipitation out of it until it hits more ample low level moisture into eastern portions of the state and into Oklahoma.
Winds will increase through the afternoon with the strongest gusts being along and south of the highway 50 corridor. Highs today will be in the lower 70s up north to near 80 for areas along the Oklahoma border.
1258 AM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 High pressure will be in place across the southeastern United States tonight before sliding off the southeastern US coast late Friday.
311 AM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through Christmas Day.
212 AM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Models depict broad high pressure dominating the region during the short term.
/TW/ Today and tonight: A belt of predominately zonal westerlies will become established across the CONUS today as an amplifying trough remains just off the West Coast. Low-level mass response to the lowering pressures will help strengthen low-level flow across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning through the day. Warm air advection and efficient mixing will yield much warmer temperatures today with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s.
There may be a brief break weather activity tonight, before a colder trough moves into the district Saturday.
Mid-level ridging with very warm H85 temperatures will keep temperatures ranging from near 80 degrees across areas generally east of I-37, to highs in the mid 80s west of I-37. Christmas day is expected to be even warmer from increased subsidence and warmer H85 temps.
A weak cold front will approach and sag slowly into the region on Christmas Day.
By the time Santa reaches the southeast US tonight, he will have to take his coat off as temperatures around midnight in our area will be in the lower 50s on the way down to lows at wake up Saturday morning around 50 degrees with another round of patchy fog.
209 AM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with parent low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, strong downslope winds continue but are showing signs of weakening, with cold front advancing through southeast MT. Cold front will cross the region today, with highs ranging from near freezing in far northwest SD to near 50 along the NEB border. Cold front should stall out over our far southwestern zones by tonight.
The depth of the low clouds will determine when the fog burns off. again depending upon thickness of the low cloud deck and sun angle. Remember this is the time of year with the lower sun angle so it takes a bit more time for it to erode the lower deck. After the fog burns off, and with high pressure in control, just some low cumulus and a bit of cirrus.
The eastern periphery of a warm frontal boundary is lifting north through middle and eastern TN this morning, bringing with it increasing low clouds across the TN valley. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 53 70 55 69 / 0 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 53 68 54 67 / 0 0 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 52 68 53 66 / 0 0 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 43 65 50 62 / 0 0 20 40 10.
415 AM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 Winds have decrease below warning/advisory thresholds with the cold front moving through, so have cancelled all remaining highlights. Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with parent low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, strong downslope winds continue but are showing signs of weakening, with cold front advancing through southeast MT. Cold front will cross the region today, with highs ranging from near freezing in far northwest SD to near 50 along the NEB border. Cold front should stall out over our far southwestern zones by tonight.
Rain showers move in today and Saturday along with cooler temperatures.
Highs will be a little warmer than yesterday, reaching the mid to upper 70s across much of east central Florida. High pressure settling closer to the region will produce relatively light E/SE winds around 5 to 10 mph through the afternoon.
Moisture looks to continue to increase through the morning as the low moves north and east across the area in conjunction with a longwave trough shifting southward across the Pacific northwest. If you can delay travel along I-17 and I-40 in the high country, that is strongly advised. Late Friday into early Saturday, drier midlevel are will move in as the best moisture begins to shift southward with the deepening trough over the Pacific. As we stay in strong west to southwest flow with additional energy moving through the longwave trough, rain and snow showers will become more intermittent.
358 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021 Today and tonight: A belt of predominately zonal westerlies will become established across the CONUS today as an amplifying trough remains just off the West Coast. Low-level mass response to the lowering pressures will help strengthen low-level flow across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning through the day. Warm air advection and efficient mixing will yield much warmer temperatures today with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s.
Clear skies and a light northerly drainage flow is again supporting a cool morning across the entire forecast area, but not as cool as yesterday morning with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the Nature coast, and upper 40s to lower 50s central and south. As for the rest of today and into Saturday high pressure from the Mid Atlantic coast extending southwest across the southeastern States will sink southeastward into the Atlantic and extend back to the west across the central peninsula with a light northeast flow this morning veering to east-southeast during the day with a weak onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon. After a cool start this morning temperatures will climb back to near seasonal levels with highs climbing into the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon under sunny skies.
Rain chance will begin to increase as the shallow low pressure propagates eastward overnight. With ample forcing and plenty of moisture in the low levels, widespread rain is anticipated, with amounts up to a half of an inch possible before cold frontal passage Saturday night.
The cold front completed passage across the region overnight, bringing a period of strong and gusty northwest winds, and a band of scattered snow showers. Cooler conditions can be expected for Christmas Day, with additional potential for snow, as another disturbance is progged through the region.
437 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021 Main forecast issues will be ongoing freezing rain advisory and snow chances tonight. Strong winds are also accompanying the cold front with gusts noted to around 40 mph over northwest early this morning. Utilized the HRRR winds gusts through the morning hours to account for the higher gusts. Upper level trough off the Pacific Coast continues to dig south with a broad southwest flow over the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
The low will track out of Kansas across north Missouri tonight into early Saturday(Christmas Day). An attendant weak cold front will move across the Midsouth late Christmas Day.
Winds will increase through the afternoon with the strongest gusts being along and south of the highway 50 corridor. Highs today will be in the lower 70s up north to near 80 for areas along the Oklahoma border. A cold front will move through the region from Friday night into Saturday morning and we should see temperatures back into the 60s for highs. Once again with little to no moisture with the associated lee side trough it will be a dry frontal passage.
402 AM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 Winds have decrease below warning/advisory thresholds with the cold front moving through, so have cancelled all remaining highlights. Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with parent low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, strong downslope winds continue but are showing signs of weakening, with cold front advancing through southeast MT. Cold front will cross the region today, with highs ranging from near freezing in far northwest SD to near 50 along the NEB border. Cold front should stall out over our far southwestern zones by tonight.
As the duration of the plume went over about 6 hours, the warmer airmass took over and some places changed back to rain.
A deepened leeside trough over eastern Colorado will start to fill and weaken the gradient slightly towards sunset ahead of an approaching cold front that will push through the CWA after midnight and into the early Saturday morning hours. Winds at that point will diminish to 10-20 mph turning out of the north giving way to a cooler morning with lows mainly in the 30s.
Lows will be warmer tonight so still with a warmer start still expect a few records to be broken on Christmas Day. A cold front will begin to enter into Northeast Arkansas around sunset Christmas Day.
1021 AM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Broad high pressure off the Carolina coastline continues to ridge over the Florida peninsula. High pressure building in over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will produce pleasant weather over the upcoming holiday weekend.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Modest mid-level ridging will lie over the area in the short term, lending to a stable, warm and dry forecast. As well, high pressure over the Gulf will support south winds which will be enhanced by Plains low pressure. Rest of this afternoon will remain windy along the lower Texas coast.
Temperatures have warmed to the low 70s across most of north Florida ans southeastern Georgia today except along the coast where weak sea breeze has kept the beaches in the upper 60s. High pressure will continue to build south and east through tonight.
1023 AM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 Winds have decrease below warning/advisory thresholds with the cold front moving through, so have cancelled all remaining highlights. Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with parent low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, strong downslope winds continue but are showing signs of weakening, with cold front advancing through southeast MT. Cold front will cross the region today, with highs ranging from near freezing in far northwest SD to near 50 along the NEB border. Cold front should stall out over our far southwestern zones by tonight.
252 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Warm weather will last through the weekend as high pressure moves offshore.
The increase of southerly flow through the next 36 hours will lead much warmer temperatures on Christmas with afternoon highs in the mid 70s.
331 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Discussion/Marine -A Mild Christmas Current temps in the 40s to near 50 holding nearly steady much of tonight at usually mild values for Christmas Eve due to moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The rain and fog will exit early Saturday with the cold frontal passage and arrival of drier air. It's possible we'll even see a few hours of sunshine in the afternoon if we can lose the low clouds as guidance suggests.
A low pressure system will lift out of the Rockies tonight and move across the Dakotas on Christmas day. But, the SLR guidance is finally catching on to the higher snow ratios narrative (NBM v4.
Otherwise, much warmer weather is ahead with highs reaching the 50s today. The mild and active pattern will continue into the bulk of this upcoming week as additional impulses eject northeast out of a highly amplified trof over western North America.
This will increase cloud cover for the rest of Christmas Eve, coincident with continued warm and moist advection at the surface and in the low levels. With ample forcing and plenty of moisture in the low levels, amounts up to three quarters of an inch are possible before cold frontal passage Saturday night.
The lowest chances for these conditions is at ECP overnight, while the greatest probabilities for fog will be across our AL/GA terminals and the Florida Big Bend. By the time Santa reaches the southeast US tonight, he will have to take his coat off as temperatures around midnight in our area will be in the lower 50s on the way down to lows at wake up Saturday morning around 50 degrees with another round of patchy fog.