Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These factors will result in a dry day for South Florida with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints only in the low and mid 60s. High pressure over the eastern third of the United States will hold through much of the week, before eroding late in the week heading into the weekend.
A weak trof has developed just to the west, with the CWA within the warm sector, while a cold front is working in from North Dakota. Cold advection will be more widespread overnight, however this will be a dry frontal passage as flow aloft is southwesterly ahead of a positively tilted trof. We will see cooler mid level temperatures and a Q vector bullseye move over the area Tuesday night to help generate precipitation, however very little lift is evident through the profile and thus only light QPF anticipated.
Local nor'easter pattern setting up again today between high pressure wedge axis extending southward across central Ga and a coastal trough axis offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast. Much cooler conditions today with coastal areas only rising into the lower 70s while farther inland mostly sunny skies will prevail with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s toward the I-75 corridor.
A few showers will be possible across the Lower Texas Gulf waters late tonight into Tuesday as low level moisture increases. Broad mid level ridging will build overhead on Tuesday resulting in warmer temperatures.
914 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Low pressure south of the Maritimes will move away to the east today while high pressure builds in from the west.
Quiet weather continues across the mid state with the upper ridge axis sliding across the eastern CONUS. Upper ridge axis will move across the mid state this afternoon.
643 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2016 At 6 am CDT a cold front was moving slowly through the state. A cold front currently across central North Dakota will slowly slide southeast tonight through the day. During the early morning hours of Tuesday forecast soundings are hinting at a chance for light freezing drizzle across northwest North Dakota as there doesn't appear to be any ice crystal formation due to a dry layer aloft. Minor snow accumulations, an inch or less, are possible across southwest North Dakota where temperatures should remain near freezing through the night and into the morning hours Tuesday.
Another beautiful day expected today with the high pressure and limited moisture. Went ahead and adjusted the northerly surface wind up by a couple miles per hour as model forecasts have been a little on the low side. Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 76 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0.
A return to dry and mild weather for next several days as high pressure moves over the region.
At 6 am CDT a cold front was moving slowly through the state. A cold front currently across central North Dakota will slowly slide southeast tonight through the day. During the early morning hours of Tuesday forecast soundings are hinting at a chance for light freezing drizzle across northwest North Dakota as there doesn't appear to be any ice crystal formation due to a dry layer aloft. Minor snow accumulations, an inch or less, are possible across southwest North Dakota where temperatures should remain near freezing through the night and into the morning hours Tuesday.
High pressure to the east combined with approaching low pressure from the west will bring southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots today. There could be a few showers out of these higher clouds that may not quite make it to the ground given dry air in the low levels, so there is a chance for virga or light rain/sprinkles after midnight through midday Tuesday.
sending an attendant cold front surging south towards the Red River.
Region will remain under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft.
A weak troughing pattern has developed over Northern California, as a storm system passes through the Pacific Northwest and a closed upper low approaching off the coast. Partly cloudy skies prevail across the region, and temperatures are generally running warmer than they were 24 hours ago.
526 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with the next trough moving over the west coast. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west is resulting in gusty southerly winds across the western SD plains. Precipitation chances will increase overnight as upper trough approaches the region, mainly in the form of rain. Upper low will close off over CO, and precip will shift southeastward across the CWA as low gradually moves eastward into KS. Meanwhile, cooler air will filter in from the north.
Mid/upper level ridge axis /currently west of the region/ is prog to shift east across S TX tonight with a deep trough digging south across the SW CONUS behind this trough. Strong WAA regime prog to occur Thurs Night as a 45 to 50 kt southerly LLJ develops across the region as strong trough digs into the Plains.
1148 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Large high pressure across the upper Great Lakes region this evening will slide southeast and crest over our region on Thursday.
925 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Some fog is still expected in northwest Oklahoma where dewpoint temperatures in the 50s are expected to arrive later tonight in the cooler air.
Vis imagery and observations indicate a thinning of the high clouds underway this afternoon. Despite the clouds, temps will likely drop to minima in the lower to mid 40s. As the 500 mb ridge shifts into the TN and lower MS valley on Thursday, a vast area of south-southwest flow in mid levels will develop across much of the southern and central U.
Mid and high clouds will increasingly spill over the upper ridge to the west and into the Mid-South later tonight. Tomorrow looks much warmer as winds turn southerly and the upper level ridge moves overhead. An upper ridge will move in from the west Thursday providing a warmer day under a return southerly flow at the surface. An upper low and associated cold front will approach from the west this weekend.
Deep closed low will approach from the west tomorrow and moisture/instability and forcing will be favorable for convection to form in the Panhandles late in the day.
Risk of stratus rather than fog will increase toward morning over E TX and into W Central LA with LLJ development downstream of an approaching vigorous southern stream trof. A stalled frontal boundary lies roughly from Northeast Texas, across Central Louisiana, to Mobile this afternoon, however a ridge aloft is keeping convection from developing. During Thursday the weak frontal boundary to the north will gradually return north and wash out as low pressure develops over the central plains.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system over central SASK. Upper level low will move into central MAN by morning. MAN upper low will bring northwest flow into the area and set up a convergent flow pattern for Thu. Current modest radar returns in fairly narrow swath ahead of weak wave cresting upper ridge will continue to propagate from the valley region eastward early this evening. As upper ridge shifts east region gets under mid level sw flow for tomorrow. Models still keep a deep upper low propagating across the southern/central CONUS late in the work week but continue to keep any precipitation chances associated with it to our south. As the previously mentioned upper low eventually heads towards the upper Ohio Valley region, brief upper ridging will build into the Northern Plains.
621 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will build over Arkansas tonight and Thursday.
Surface wise, a trough is draped across central Florida and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic Ocean. Ahead of a trough over central Florida, the axis of a persistent deep layered ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to extreme south Florida and our region will maintain strong mid and upper level descent. With the thermal trough dissipating later tonight, winds will become mainly north near 10 knots except on the Florida Straits overnight.
An upper ridge will move in from the west Thursday providing a warmer day under a return southerly flow at the surface. An upper low and associated cold front will approach from the west this weekend.
This boundary will move back to the Northeast as a warm front late tonight and during the day Thursday.
713 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday.
The upper trough will advance across Wyoming and Colorado, as a closed low begins to develop in southwest Colorado by late afternoon.
926 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 As the warm front has moved east this evening the lower clouds have pretty much cleared out of the James River Valley. This Wednesday evening a warm frontal boundary had progressed through central North Dakota resulting in decreasing clouds across the northwest. Meanwhile stratus cloud cover and cool temperatures in the lower 30s remained in place across the James River valley. Did significantly reduce the mention of freezing rain for Thursday morning from the previous forecast as the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing rain.
940 PM PDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as low pressure moves through the region.
838 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will build across the area tonight, and move offshore Thursday night.
914 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Northern Lakes will move SE across the lakes and move off the SE coast Thursday night.
A few places along I-64 may briefly touch the freezing mark near daybreak, but it should not last long enough to matter to any active vegetation. Strong high pressure to our east will move slowly away tonight, with a H5 ridge axis approaching from the west. We expect dry weather Thursday night as the H5 ridge moves across the area.
As the high edges eastward, mid/high clouds currently across Iowa/Missouri will gradually spread into the area tonight. As the high moves further away from the region and boundary layer winds veer more southerly, warm air advection will increase markedly on Thursday. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 50s.
/28/ Tonight through Thursday afternoon, High pressure centered well to our north, will continue to build into the forecast area behind the cold front that now resides just south of the CWA. Therefore, look for cooler conditions across the CWA tonight, as lows range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
1047 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with the next trough moving over the west coast. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west is resulting in gusty southerly winds across the western SD plains. Precipitation chances will increase overnight as upper trough approaches the region, mainly in the form of rain. Upper low will close off over CO, and precip will shift southeastward across the CWA as low gradually moves eastward into KS. Meanwhile, cooler air will filter in from the north.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread from west to east through Thursday morning along a cold front, with rain changing to snow at the higher elevations by early Thursday morning.
830 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Large high pressure across the upper Great Lakes region this afternoon will slide southeast and crest over our region Thursday.
This system will result in much cooler temperatures Thursday, as well as gusty west to northwest winds. In the big picture, an upper ridge was situated over central/eastern Texas, with a trough and associated storm system over California. Although the ridge was well east of the area and most locations across southeast Arizona reported cooler highs today (generally 1-4 degs of cooling), clear skies and southwest flow ahead of the approaching system allowed areas east of Tucson to warm to just about yesterday's levels, with a record high broken at the Bisbee-Douglas Airport (high today was 87 degrees which broke the old record of 86 degrees set in 1997). Best chances for precipitation across southern Arizona will be overnight through mid-day Thursday as a vort max west of San Diego rotates through base of the trough and across the area.
41 High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. The center of the high pressure will move eastward overnight into the Middle Atlantic, shifting the winds to an easterly direction. Cooler (slightly below normal) high temperatures are anticipated for Thursday.
914 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the OH Valley has kept winds out of the north and allowed for cooler and drier air to stream into the region. The high is expected to shift east through the night and winds will begin to switch to a more E/SE direction after midnight. As the 500 mb ridge shifts into the TN and lower MS valley on Thursday, a vast area of south-southwest flow in mid levels will develop across much of the southern and central U.
While some guidance suggests the potential for cigs dropping to IFR overnight, forecast and observed temperature-dewpoint spreads upstream across the Upper Texas Coast, combined with a well mixed atmosphere in the lowest 2 kft suggest that MVFR should be more prevalent.
Fries Warm advection and increasing moisture will continue Thursday night in advance of a warm front. A short period of freezing rain remains possible along the leading edge, mainly in the DuBois vicinity around midnight or so. Will continue with a low-confidence freezing rain mention and maintain the HWO mention as is.
753 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move southeast into the mid Atlantic states tonight. Southerly winds on the back side of the high will bring a warming trend for the rest of the week. A large low pressure system will move into the area over the weekend. Dry conditions are expected with high pressure. A weak warm front will lift north late Thursday into Thursday evening which will bring winds around to the south with wind speeds slowly increasing later Thursday night. 12Z model suite suggests that a few showers could occur near the warm front across the northern counties. Temperature forecast is on the cooler side of guidance.
Upper level ridging will begin to increase across the Midwest causing moderation of the airmass.
On Thursday a large upper level low that is currently moving onshore the California coast will move across the 4-corners and become cutoff from the main flow. Low level theta_e advection will lead to saturation in the lowest 700 mb of the atmosphere and forecast soundings show enough lift to produce some light rain. By tomorrow evening, the cut-off upper low will be positioned over the four corners region with surface cyclogenesis ongoing across eastern Colorado. The warm front will be draped across southern MN/northern IA and into central WI tomorrow night and will be the focus for the rainfall development given the strong low level convergence. With high pressure pushing into the great lakes from the north during this period, tend to lean toward the southern consensus.
744 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Warmer temperatures will be in store beginning Thursday as a warm front approaches the region and brings a chance of showers with it Thursday night.
Templer Previous update - Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a large ridge over the western half of the US running from the New Mexico through eastern Montana and up into central Saskatchewan. To the east a highly amplified trough of equal size runs from off the coast of British Columbia to off the coast of southern California. This afternoon and evening: Ridge will exit out of the area with a warm front moving across at the surface. The base of the trough off the coast of California will move inland and beginning transversing the Desert Southwest.
With an upper trough over the northeast swinging away to the east and another moving onshore over the Southwest, an upper ridge over the Plains gets moved east to over the Mississippi River by Thursday evening. With increasing subsidence from the approaching upper ridge, temps above seasonal expected to continue, but Thursday not quite as warm as today. For tonight, the northerly flow brings in a bit cooler air and overnight lows ranging from low 50s north to around 60 along the immediate coast. Tomorrow sees the greatest affect from lingering clouds over eastern portions of the forecast no rain is expected, but the increase cloudiness into Thursday will help to limit daytime heating, leaving an west-east gradient across the forecast area for high temps, even with the approaching upper ridge.
704 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to shift to the east, and an upper-level ridge will move into the Northland from the west this evening. Southerly flow will bring an influx of warmer and more humid air into the Northland through tonight, bringing increasing cloud cover.
As the storm continues to move east we can expect snow to develop over the higher terrain with rain in the lower elevations.
945 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Large high pressure across the upper Great Lakes region this evening will slide southeast and crest over our region on Thursday.
Shower activity will continue to move east with the upper level trough, tapering off by midnight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 64 47 68 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 37 61 44 66 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 10 TN.
A decent slug of mid-level Theta-E advection rides the southwest flow aloft ahead of the deep trough digging into the Rockies from 12-18z Thursday. There is a very brief period for FZRA across the northeast tomorrow morning, but with the strong WAA, surface temperatures should quickly warm above freezing resulting in little impact.
745 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. The center of the high pressure will move eastward overnight into the Middle Atlantic, shifting the winds to an easterly direction. Cooler (slightly below normal) high temperatures are anticipated for Thursday.
A stalled frontal boundary lies roughly from Northeast Texas, across Central Louisiana, to Mobile this afternoon, however a ridge aloft is keeping convection from developing. During Thursday the weak frontal boundary to the north will gradually return north and wash out as low pressure develops over the central plains.
Several low pressure systems through next Wednesday, each bringing the chance of rain.
The evening BRO sounding comes in today with a pretty dry atms with only some very limited moisture evident at the lowest levels of the atms. Mid level ridging will lie overhead, shifting slowly east toward the Mississippi River Valley. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support south southeast winds. The axis of a mid level trough will cross the four corners area tonight and Thurs. Gulf high pressure will retreat east slightly.
High pressure anchored across Lake Michigan will drift southeast this evening, allowing for a few cirrus clouds to gradually shift across south central Kentucky. While low temperatures should fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for much of eastern Kentucky, valley locales, especially in far eastern into northeastern Kentucky, will likely fall into the low to mid 20s. Moisture will increase Thursday as surface ridging shifts across the Appalachians and upper ridging slides overhead aloft. Increasing heights/thicknesses underneath the approaching ridge will warm temperatures into the 60s. Warm air advection Thursday evening/night will continue, leading to a much warmer night in the low-mid 40s.
Warmer conditions expected for tomorrow as south winds strengthen ahead of a strong upper level low across the 4-corners region.
Backdoor cold front has moved across se Ga and ne Fl this evening bringing gusty ne winds and cooler temperatures. Windy and cooler temperatures will continue on Thursday especially near the east coast as strong high pressure builds over the eastern seaboard.
A ridge will build in behind the front tonight and continue to slide over the area the area on Thursday. Overall cooler over the next 24 hours. This will result in easterly flow moving across a cooler air mass, moderating temperatures back to near-seasonable for Thursday.
Upper low pressure system is still over the area with scattered showers over the foothills and mountains with some lingering isolated showers in the valley. The center of upper low will move to near Las Vegas overnight and as it does the showers will rapidly diminish between 10 pm and 1 am tonight.
1155 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Slow eastward exit of expansive arctic high pressure will sustain a stretch of favorable aviation conditions tonight and Thursday. Advancement of warmer mid level air into the region will bring a thickening/lowering high based cloud throughout Thursday.
The 8 pm regional surface analysis showed a backdoor cold front, which had essentially merged with the FL/GA east coast sea breezes off the relatively cool shelf waters of the Atlantic, extending from the middle of the north FL Peninsula through southwest GA and southeast AL. While a weak upper-level trough will also be moving through our forecast area, limited deep layer moisture and ascent will keep PoPs below 20%.
653 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 This Wednesday evening a warm frontal boundary had progressed through central North Dakota resulting in decreasing clouds across the northwest. Meanwhile stratus cloud cover and cool temperatures in the lower 30s remained in place across the James River valley. Did significantly reduce the mention of freezing rain for Thursday morning from the previous forecast as the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing rain.
Cool high pressure overhead will move to the east coast Thursday and re-establish a southerly flow of milder air in our region.
There is a ridge over central North America with a trough on the west coast of U.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-level ridge across the central US, with 500mb height falls up to 60m over the Rockies to southern CA. An 850mb ridge was noted through the Mississippi River valley, with southerly winds over the High Plains. Moisture was returning northward through TX into OK, along with warmer 850mb temperatures from the southern Plains to the northern Rockies. Surface lee trough at 18Z was noted in eastern WY/eastern CO, with high pressure over MI and southeasterly surface winds across the mid-Missouri River valley.
1024 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the region tonight and Thursday will result in drier conditions, lighter winds, and clearing skies.
737 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure over the Northern Lakes will move SE across the lakes and move off the SE coast Thursday night.
A pre-frontal trough has preceded the cool front with winds veering to NERLY late this afternoon and evening.
741 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 High pressure building eastward will cause very cold conditions overnight yet also somewhat milder temperatures Thursday.
Strong high pressure to our east will move slowly away tonight, with a H5 ridge axis approaching from the west. We expect dry weather Thursday night as the H5 ridge moves across the area.