Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
949 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. EXPECTING A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING CHANGES TO NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS AND SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
756 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS HANGING AROUND IN SOME LOCATIONS AND SUBSIDENCE SETTING UP WITH THE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COAST WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE FELT AS A RESULT OF THE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW. DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING AS A TROUGH OFF THE COAST DEEPENS AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COAST IN TURN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER.
625 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 231 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHORT WAVE FROM YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AT 19Z.
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH MODEL. A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS.
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
WITH EARLY/MID EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO TUE. 09 /ISSUED 231 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHORT WAVE FROM YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AT 19Z.
804 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S.
628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SE AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFT NORTH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
100 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA MID TO LATE WEEK. AREA RETURNS TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SO MUCH WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED THAN TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N EXPECT BETTER NE FLOW AND TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, YIELDING A WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH MODEL. A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 90 70 91 / 10 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 87 64 87 / 10 10 10 20.
A TOUCH DRIER THIS EVENING IN THE LOW LEVELS SO LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
954 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 THE BROAD UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MID EVENING. THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MORE AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING. /ISSUED / SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN AND AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. MODELS SHOW MORE STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.
746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
701 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH MAY ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 97 74 95 / 20 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 95 73 93 / 10 10 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 96 73 93 / 10 10 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 92 69 90 / 20 20 30 50.
707 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SE WISCONSIN TO WESTERN ILLINOIS.
1039 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 229 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEK.
The low clouds will break up by mid Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions expected after 15Z. Overnight temps will remain in line with climatology, generally in the lower 70s. The low clouds will break up by mid Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions expected after 15Z. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE UNDER WEAK MEAN LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WESTWARD ACROSS SE GA IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. MUGGY OVER NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST.
806 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
100 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
1017 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
A SECOND LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM BROOKLYN IA TO JUST SOUTH OF DES MOINES TO ST. LOWS BY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.
1042 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
Overnight temps will remain in line with climatology, generally in the lower 70s. The low clouds will break up by mid Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions expected after 15Z. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AT 250 IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SLIGHTLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER BELIZE. AND WELL TO THE EAST IS A WESTERLY MIGRATING UPPER LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AS INDICATED IN THE 500-700 MB RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE KEYS. SURFACE RIDGING FAR ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA WITH TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE KEYS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 7 KTS AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE AREA. AS SFC RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING E ACROSS OK/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FARTHER E TUESDAY. WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH MIDWEEK. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WITH A RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE RE- STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RESULTING IN SOME INCREASED CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AND PERHAPS A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. AS SFC RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING E ACROSS OK/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FARTHER E TUESDAY. WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY TO ALLOW ENOUGH OF A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSPORT INCREASED MOISTURE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
755 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
SEA BREEZE MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS WEAK IMPULSE COMES AROUND THE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR STARTING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
/ISSUED 424 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NWRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING. SEA BREEZE MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS WEAK IMPULSE COMES AROUND THE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR STARTING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING BUT ANY FOG/STRATUS WOULD REMAIN NORTH OVER LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES. STABLE POST COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS STUCK IN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY. A FEW CUMULUS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION WHERE ITS IS MORE UNSTABLE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AND NEAR THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PLAINS UNDER THE STRATUS. EXPECT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT QG DYNAMICS OVER OUR AREA. DENVER CYCLONE LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AT BJC AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT W-NW WIND AT DENVER AFTER 12Z.
1135 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
801 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
817 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE LOW-COUNTRY WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.
952 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
630 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS AS OF 21Z. OUR CURRENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN A NW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OR PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OR UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S-80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS MOST TO THE MODERATING EFFECT OF THE NW FLOW WILL BE E OF THE MTS.
THE SIGNIFICANT FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL WALLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS LONG ENOUGH BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1157 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NW IA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR, PRECIP HAS FIRED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO TIMING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE SHOULD THE SHOWERS MAINTAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT FROM TONIGHT'S MCS/SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND END UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN IL.
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER MEXICO AND HAVE VCSH FOR KDRT THROUGH THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE 30 POPS THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER LIFT IN THIS PART OF THE CWA. THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PROVIDE ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN THE TAF PD. ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 90S WITH DEWS IN THE LOW 70S.
UPPER LEVEL (500MB) RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS TUESDAY.
744 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GIVEN VERY HIGH SHEAR AND CAPE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS VERY HIGH SIG TOR PARAMETERS PRESENT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI (4 TO 6). VALUES THIS HIGH DO SUPPORT STRONGER TORNADOES IF CONVECTION GROWS SEVERE IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
703 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NW IA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR, PRECIP HAS FIRED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO TIMING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE SHOULD THE SHOWERS MAINTAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT FROM TONIGHT'S MCS/SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND END UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN IL.
UPDATE: Thunderstorms across northeast MO and west central IL this evening along a cold front dropping southeastward into our area. The latest NAM model run has very little QPF after 06Z Tuesday with the cold front dropping to STL by 12Z Tuesday. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions can be expected late tonight/early Tuesday morning across northeast MO and west central IL behind the front with continued warm and muggy conditions further south for the rest of the night.
MAY HAVE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA CLOSE TO SHORE BUT COOLER LAKE MI WATERS WL PREVENT STRONGER GUSTS FROM MIXING TO LAKE SFC. OTHERWISE CHANCES OF TSTORMS REMAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CAPE BUILDS AND CIN WEAKENS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO WI LATE ON TUE.
(PREV DISC) ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA THRU MIDWEEK. MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO SE BREEZE ABOUT THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS INTO SOUTH FL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH.
The low clouds will break up by mid Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions expected after 15Z. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
844 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AND 7-8 MBS FROM KSAN TO THE LOWER DESERTS. FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE SW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM AN EAST-WEST.
THE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR FREEPORT THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES INTO FAR NE MO. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AS THE CI CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.
952 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
712 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
634 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 356 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING.
555 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET FROM PONCA NEBRASKA TO JUST NORTH OF SPENCER IOWA AND SOUTH.
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE.
506 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 303 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ WARMER PRE-THANKSGIVING WEATHER PREVAILED AROUND THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. IT IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
HAZARDOUS SURF AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE (1047 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER DOWN EAST MAINE. A TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE RIDGING WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST UP WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT DID NOT CHANGE FROM THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SO UPDATED THE TRENDS BUT LEFT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. /ISSUED 303 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ WARMER PRE-THANKSGIVING WEATHER PREVAILED AROUND THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. IT IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
730 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE RIDGE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT.
Although patchy light drizzle/fog will be possible late tonight/Thu morning, heavier rain will likely hold off until late Thu afternoon, primarily at BVO and maybe as far south as TUL/RVS ahead of strong cold front. /ISSUED 334 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding continues to be the main forecast concern, with a limited freezing rain/light icing concern northwest of Tulsa. Moisture levels are near unheard of values for this time of year, and as a strong but shallow cold front drops south into the area late Thursday and Thursday evening, the stage will be set for heavy rainfall.
309 PM PST WED NOV 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE STRETCHES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF THE COOLER WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
700 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.