Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
EXPECT MORE SITES TO FALL TO -20 OR BELOW AS WINDS INCREASE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH PASSAGES AROUND/AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS BACK INTO ERN WI AND THIS MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
122 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN LATER TODAY. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. ONLY EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AND THERE WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE IS FUNNELING COLD AIR DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS STRAIT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST HEADING FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THE WINDS VEERING A BIT MORE AND OUT OF THE EAST EXPECT THE LONG FETCH OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM TO BRING IN MORE MOISTURE.
Fog may become a problem overnight for the lower foothills. A ridge will start to rebuild along the West Coast during Friday and a trough will start to dig into the Great Basin.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LARGE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A LEE TROF STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT INTO COLORADO AND NEBRASKA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS TERMINALS AFTER 18-20Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT.
LOOK FOR VFR WX AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND MAKES WAY FOR RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GIVEN THE LOW RH WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO START BRINGING DOWN VSBY'S AND CIGS. AS WARMER AIR GRADUALLY NOSES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING, WE MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
SNOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD AND FRIGID TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO SUPPRESS THE WARMER AIR AND HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE. BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT SOME WARMER AIR WILL MOVE UP ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR NOSING NORTHWARD. IT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALONG THE RIDGES AND LOW LANDS TO THE WEST. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT ICE CRYSTALS WILL NO LONGER BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS TROUGH, WITH RAIN THIS EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS CLOSER TO A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S FROM HAYS TO ELKHART, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FIRST IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H7 FRONTOGENESIS BANDING INTENSIFYING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.
1257 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MAINE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains look to reach High Wind Warning criteria for several hours this afternoon so will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning.
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL FROM 3 TO 5 KT IS QUICKLY FORMING A DECK OF CLOUDS. SO AGAIN THE TREND IS SOMEWHAT BETTER FOR LESS IMPACT TOWARD DAWN AS THE WARM FRONT MAY EDGE OUT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL TOGETHER. WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF A IDABEL OKLAHOMA TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS LINE. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END BY 16Z AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM. THE FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS TIME SHOULD THEN BE AROUND 10 KFT OR HIGHER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM ERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS OF FRIDAY. PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD AND TEMPS WARM. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF IOWA WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS COMPARED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FURTHER EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEPARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. I DID KNOCK BACK HIGHS TOMORROW DUE TO CLOUDS THOUGH THE SW MAY BE WARMER THAN WHAT I HAVE GOING. THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP INTO ALASKA. TWO CLOSED LOWS WERE NOTED. THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT AND MOVE EAST.
HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MOS /GFS/ WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER TRADITIONAL OPERATIONAL RAW MODEL TEMPS /NAM/GFS/ AND WARMER HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR/RAP/HI RES ARW SOLUTIONS WHICH MAY BE TOO WARM CONSIDERING CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER. MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN TIMING OF AIR MASS CHANGES AND EXTENT OF COLD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER SOUTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 357 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) A lee trough and a developing 30-40 Knot 850 MB low level jet this evening will keep winds from decoupling.
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM 3-5 KFT IS QUICKLY FORMING A DECK OF CLOUDS. SO AGAIN THE TREND IS SOMEWHAT BETTER FOR LESS IMPACT TOWARD DAWN AS THE WARM FRONT MAY EDGE OUT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL TOGETHER. WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF A IDABEL OKLAHOMA TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS LINE. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END BY 16Z AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM. THE FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS TIME SHOULD THEN BE AROUND 10 KFT OR HIGHER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM ERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS OF FRIDAY. PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD AND TEMPS WARM. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
These clouds, in conjunction with a strong low-level jet, have resulted in minimum temperatures in the low/mid 50s areawide. This would suggest high temperatures today a good 10-14F warmer than yesterday's readings. Thus, forecast highs for this afternoon are in the lower 80s north of an Ozona-Coleman line. Farther southeast, slightly cooler 850 mb temps and longer duration of A. The low-level jet will be a player again tonight, although it should shift east after midnight as a cold front advances toward Interstate 20. The leading edge of a cooler airmass is expected to reach I-20 by sunrise Saturday, shifting winds to the north.
AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE SLOWLY BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD TODAY. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10PM ARE BELOW FREEZING AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO START OUT AS A RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX DURING THE AM HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CWA. FREEZING PRECIP WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS NEAR THE COAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THERE.
AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO ROUNDS OF FLURRIES.
WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS NW AR/RIVER VALLEY BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING KGUY AND KDHT TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WITH A RE-REINFORCING SHOT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE BLOCK WILL BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
THE NAM WAS FOLLOWED FOR FRIDAY'S HIGHS, YIELDING TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES, TO MUCH WARMER UPPER 60S IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FIRST IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H7 FRONTOGENESIS BANDING INTENSIFYING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUT A TEMPORARY END TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING FLOW OF WARMER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL LEAD TO MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AGAIN USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WORK WEEK.
Surface lee trough will become a fixture and intensify in this flow.
TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AS OF 9 PM CST.
WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF A IDABEL OKLAHOMA TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS LINE. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END BY 15Z AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM. FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA BY 15Z SHOULD THEN BE AROUND 10 KFT OR HIGHER. CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM 3-5 KFT IS QUICKLY FORMING A DECK OF CLOUDS. SO AGAIN THE TREND IS SOMEWHAT BETTER FOR LESS IMPACT TOWARD DAWN AS THE WARM FRONT MAY EDGE OUT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL TOGETHER. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ097.
Little change in the current fcst as clear skies, light winds, and sub-freezing temperatures will continue to slowly fall through the night, with hard freezing conditions across the entire CWA by morning. Low temps will bottom out in the upper teens to the lower 20s except along the immediate coast where mid 20s will prevail. A warming trend will begin on Friday as high pressure moves eastward into the Western Atlantic and east southeasterly flow starts to return moisture to the region. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures should easily warm through the 60s with some locations even reaching the lower 70s.
ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER TODAY AND THIS EVENING HAS BROUGHT WARMER AIR AND MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
1141 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 AT H5 LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SENDING FRIGID ARCTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE HIGH PLAINS JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR. SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PANHANDLE IN UPGLIDE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
EXPECT A FEW NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS POTENTIALLY BELOW 15 DEGREES.
THEN COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES TODAY. THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE LONG PERIODS IN WHICH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION.
THE ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AID IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SEEP TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD.
Over the next 24 hours, a large scale trough develops over the Rockies as the long wave ridge amplifies off of the west coast. After another cold night, especially in the northeast, expect a little warmer temperatures for Friday and low clouds. The 18Z NAM forecast soundings show some saturation within this layer and still maintain a warm nose around +2C with surface temps right around freezing. Depending on a lot of local conditions, there could be any combination of rain, freezing rain and snow.
BUT THE WESTERN RIDGE WAS GETTING FLATTENED BY INCOMING PACIFIC ENERGY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH FRI MORNING. THE WEST COAST RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE WINTER APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING WESTWARD OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS LOW WHIPS A STRONG DISTURBANCE DOWN THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY.
ESP AS LL THERMAL TROUGH IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN TIED TO BACKING LL FLW AFT MIDNIGHT. HWVR BASED ON POSITION OF ARCTIC RIDGE AND VARIABLE BUT DEEMED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SNOWPACK ACRS THE AREA. RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: KSBN KFWA 19TH -11/1936 -7/1978 20TH -6/1929 -7/1904 ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATL COAST ON FRI AS H5 HGTS FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY UPSTREAM OF VIGOROUS CYCLONE LIFTING NWD UP ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A LARGE UPSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THEN TRANSITION OVER THE SLEET/ FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS STRONG 850MB JET PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL WARNING/ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SURFACE RIDGING HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS.
432 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE U. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO RAPIDLY END FROM NW TO SE AS THE AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS BY TUE AM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS EVENING WITH A PUNCH SOUTHWARD EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE COMMON BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SWRN CONUS AS REPEATED DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN INTO CNTRL AND NRN CALIFORNIA.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT TOGETHER WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INITIALLY. SO COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN CWA. AND THEN A TRANSITION TO WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA IN A SOMEWHAT BENIGN WEATHER REGIME. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL DENDRITIC LAYER WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
RIDGE INFLUENCE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURN TO THE WEST. CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ABOVE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VARIATIONS IN AMPLITUDE IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE VARIABILITIES IN ENERGY PROPAGATION FROM THE TROPICS AND OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS AFFECT THE BASE STATE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF DISSIPATING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
411 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOW THE HIGH WIND EVENT IS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS AROUND CONVERSE COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. BUT MAINLY EXPECTED RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS.
This low will slowly shift eastward into Indiana and Ohio today. It will continue to move off to the east tonight, dragging a cold front through the Lower Ohio Valley. The cold front will move through tonight with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s in its wake. Expect highs in the lower to mid 40s.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY ESCAPE SEEING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
BUT THE RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP OVER THE WEST OR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST TEMPS HAVE REMAINED HIGHER IN THE 40S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE WEAKLY MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FULL INSOLATION AND WEAK WINDS TO WARM MONDAY BACK INTO THE LOW 60S.
At the surface a pre-frontal trough was located over central KS, and is forecast to be over taken by the main front later this morning. Cooler temperatures behind the front are not forecast to arrive until later tonight so highs today should reach the low to mid 60s with the exception of far northeast KS in the 50s. Low temperatures drop to near freezing for most of the forecast area. Easterly winds across Eastern Kansas will keep high temperatures on Monday a few degrees cooler in the northeast counties versus the southwest, with highs from the middle 40s to near 60.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 30 MPH. SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO NEAR 15 DEGREES COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
Just like last night the NAM and SREF continue to have problems resolving the moisture profile within the lowest 2k ft and once again develop dense fog across the snowfield. An associated weak cold front will push through the forecast area but will be moisture starved this far south.
Overall temps are running a little warmer this evening than previously thought due to breezy southerly winds continuing. Temps should generally range through the low to mid 40s with a temp gradient from west (warmest) to east (coldest) across the region. Energy now cresting a broad ridge over the desert southwest will move over the upper midwest tonight and begin to carve out a 500mb trough just west of the Great Lakes late Sunday. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop Sunday morning near Chicago and move over Ohio by early Monday. This low will force a cold front south of the Ohio early Monday. Lows tonight will only fall into the lower to mid 40s. Lows early Monday will range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CWA. FREEZING RAIN IS VERY PROBABLE. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE WILL OCCUR. BUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BEST GUESS AT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. OR IF ONLY A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR.
257 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2015 A weak cold front will drop through the area today but will lack a push of really cold air behind it. Cooler temperatures move in for Monday with broken stratus spreading in from the north, although temperatures will still be above average.
PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
413 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
1228 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW. NOT A FREEZING PRECIPITATION SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW CLOUDS RETREATING WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND WIND. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED IS WEAKER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE BETWEEN A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF OREGON WITH RISES ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE AREA.