Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models forecast upper level trough west of area to slowly fill through the period. Expect cool temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight low temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight, ranging from 48 in Williston to 60 in Fort Myers. Saturday will be mostly sunny with light winds and highs a few degrees warmer in the 70s.
Dewpoints will be slightly warmer than this morning so expecting overnight lows to be around 10 degrees warmer. Warm air advection in the low-levels and a somewhat stronger onshore flow will boast Saturday's high temperatures nearly 10-15 degrees above average.
Some low and mid level cloudiness and ample deep layered moisture, associated with the low continue across the area this morning. Short Term Update - Light west to northwest winds will continue through the remainder of today as a trough slowly shifts out to the northeast and east. A trough across Florida and the Keys will gradually migrate eastwards today. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1970, the low temperature at Key West International Airport was 51 degrees.
626 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 A warm front front will lift northeast through southern Canada today through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday and will cross the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
620 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure will remain over the Carolinas until a cold front crosses the region Sat night. WV satellite imagery this morning depicts a positively-tilted, longwave trough stretching from Atlantic Canada swwd to the Gulf of Mexico, including a well-defined perturbation now crossing the Appalachians of NC/VA. The models indicate a positively-tilted trough extending this morning from n-cntl Canada wswwd through the Pacific NW will amplify from the Great Lakes sswwd into the GOM on Sat, with the associated trough likely to reach the sern US coast by 12Z Sun. A mid-high level moist axis preceding the surface front and accompanying the aforementioned mid-upper trough --mostly above 8-10 thousand ft-- will sweep ewd across cntl NC late Sat aft through early Sat night.
This low will continue to track eastward this morning, with the pressure gradient tightening behind it. Tonight will be cooler and wind speeds will decrease.
Southerly flow will increase today out ahead of a weak cold front moving through later this evening and overnight. Temperatures will not help fire weather conditions since much of the forecast area could see afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will near the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border late this evening with cooler air filtering in behind the front.
704 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure will extend over the area through tonight with low pressure moving across to the south and southeast. A dry cold front will move through from the northwest Saturday night.
Readings this morning are already in the 40s over much of the area, with some mid 50s near the Buffalo Ridge. Reduced PoPs into the low chance range and kept them north of I-94. The GFS is even warmer along the Minnesota River. Degree of cooling behind the departing Friday trough is the real question. Appears best shot of cooler air will drift to the east with the southwest a bit cooler, but still mild through the weekend. Dry high pressure builds over the region so light winds will be the rule.
A short wave trough aloft will deamplify and lift northeastward through the day while high pressure prevails over the southeast, with light northeast winds across our local area.
This fast moving short wave trough will push across the northern Great Basin this morning before brushing northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. The pressure gradient over the area tightens ahead of the cold front accompanying the short wave resulting in breezy west winds, most notable across the mountains and northern valleys this afternoon. Ridging returns tonight as a trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. The ridge amplifies on Saturday which ensures that above normal warmth and dry weather will continue across the area.
631 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the north while low pressure will lift northeastward from Florida along the stalled frontal boundary off the coast.
Long wave high level trof extends from the New England States to the central and eastern Gulf. East of the high level trof axis at the surface, a frontal boundary was positioned from off the southeast US coast to across the central Florida panhandle where a frontal wave of low pressure will be lifting northeast. Although, environmental moisture is lacking, mid level impulses tracking eastward at the base of the long wave trof position may provide enough lift to squeeze out a small chance of rain over the coastal waters tonight.
Early this morning a weak mid-level trough over Canada was beginning to deepen southward into the Northern Plains. A modest pressure gradient will be present both ahead of and behind the cold front. However, short-range model guidance continues to support further compressional warming ahead of the cold front which may push high temperatures near or above record readings in the low/mid 70s. While some model guidance suggests some very light precipitation may develop (primarily across central to southeast KS), model soundings still show an abundance of dry air in the low-levels, so have stayed with a dry forecast across the southern portions of the CWA for Saturday morning. Modified Pacific air moves in for Saturday with temperatures much cooler though still above normal.
Therefore have cancelled the High Wind Warning for southwest Phillips County. Upper ridge axis remains to the west into the weekend.
Some patchy fog and freezing fog this morning but it is isolated to area lakes and rivers and is not expected to directly impact the terminals.
A band of precipitation, likely in the form of rain is expected to accompany the cold frontal passage during the morning and possibly early afternoon hours. H7 temperatures do drop considerably to -2C to -4C over Converse/Niobrara counties, but temperatures upstream (behind the front) are well above freezing at the surface.
534 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Today starts out quite mild, as light south winds keep overnight lows well above freezing. A dry cold front will begin moving through the region during the late morning hours. An upper level ridge builds for the weekend, keeping mostly clear skies and above average temperatures.
1030 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 A warm front front will lift northeast through southern Canada today through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday and will cross the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
Shower chances return with the approach and passage of a Saturday cold front. The broad trough is progged to deepen as it tracks E, with the trough axis crossing the area Saturday evening.
A cold front will move south across Oklahoma into north Texas tonight bringing a shift to north winds. A weak cold front will move south across the area tonight with only minimal cooling and a moderate north wind.
A warming trend will continue today as southerly breezes increase ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will slip through the forecast area from nw to se tonight. Cooler temps will actually lag behind the front.
Breezy northerly winds will reinforce the cool and damp air mass this morning in coastal locations, with winds slowly subsiding later this afternoon as high pressure begins to build into our area. Low pressure will continue moving northeastward today before accelerating out to sea tonight. High pressure will then temporarily build over our waters on Saturday and Saturday night, with light offshore winds allowing seas to fall below caution levels offshore by early Saturday.
Since rain has ended and temperatures will continuing trending cooler with lowering snow levels, this threat should not last very long.
upper level trough will shift off the Rockies and across the northern Plains. A cold front will move south in tandem with the upper level system. High pressure will build into the Plains region behind the frontal boundary and eventually shift east of the region going into the upcoming weekend.
611 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure provides dry weather today into tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday with limited moisture.
Pressure rises behind the cold front were decreasing this morning, but still expecting a breezy day due to mixing and cold advection. Cold front rapidly dropping south across the area early this morning. The northwest flow will keep temperatures much cooler into the 50s today, although these readings still well above normal.
632 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Aviation A breezy day is in store with sunshine and highs in the 50s, before a cold front brings clouds and a few light rain showers or drizzle tonight and Saturday.
The pressure gradient was tightening behind low pressure well offshore northeast Florida.
544 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure will pass to the south through this evening, then weaken later tonight into Saturday as offshore low pressure passes well to the southeast and as a cold front approaches from the west.
As the front departs the area late on Friday into early Saturday, rain chances will diminish as drier, cooler air begins to enter the region.
The second half of the weekend will be cloudier and cooler with locally gusty winds.
1015 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Main weather feature this morning has been the premature turning of winds to the northwest as trough has moved through earlier than anticipated. As the front departs the area late on Friday into early Saturday, rain chances will diminish as drier, cooler air begins to enter the region.
Updated to cancel the high wind warning for southern Big Horn and Sheridan counties. Cold front rapidly dropping south across the area early this morning. The northwest flow will keep temperatures much cooler into the 50s today, although these readings still well above normal.
The zonal flow pattern will transition to a weak ridge which will bring a break in the wet pattern today into tonight. With the cooler air mass over the region the high temperature today will not be as warm as the past several days.
518 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure overhead was providing for clear skies and light winds. As the high pressure moves east of the area, southerly winds generally under 7 knots are expected to develop this afternoon. The air mass over the region is till very dry and a large diurnal range in temperatures is expected with high temperatures today warming into the lower and middle 70's. Warmer temperatures are expected tonight as low level moisture deepens. A weak cold front will cross SE TX Saturday night but moisture remains limited and upper level forcing is weak so again no precip is expected along the front.
At 2 AM MST weak cold front and rain showers extended through sw Montana - Sun Valley - Rome/OR. Today will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday when new record highs were set for the date. A Pacific warm front will increase clouds Saturday, with a chance of light rain in the afternoon north of Burns/OR, Ontario/OR, Smiths Ferry/ID. High temps Saturday will be like highs today except in south-central Idaho which will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today.
A new cold front will drop south into the state just before sunrise Sat morning. Highs will also be warmer than seen in the previous days. Expect slightly cooler temps on Sat with these NRLY winds.
Early AM Water Vapor & surface observations indicate the cold front is quickly to the south, located roughly along a DGW-LSK line at 1340z. A band of precipitation, likely in the form of rain is expected to accompany the cold frontal passage during the morning and possibly early afternoon hours. H7 temperatures do drop considerably to -2C to -4C over Converse/Niobrara counties, but temperatures upstream (behind the front) are well above freezing at the surface.
502 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017 Record highs for today look to be broken at many sites across the region, as downslope effects ahead of approaching cold front cause temperatures to really sore this afternoon. The cold front will slide southward across Kansas by Friday night with cooler air settling over the region, however daytime highs will still be above normal for the weekend as airmass is of Pacific origins.
Winds will weaken this evening before transitioning to the north overnight as a cold front moves into the area. /issued 309 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/ A stubborn upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS will tenaciously hang on through the weekend. This portends dry weather for these parts as the flow aloft over the region switches from northerly around the upper ridge, to northwesterly around the upper ridge due to the passage of an upper trough translating southeastward through the midwest U. We'll likely be dealing with record high temperatures today as h85 temperatures warm under the eastern extent of the said upper ridge. Fortunately, the upper trough traversing the Midwest will send a cold front south through region on Saturday on gusty northerly winds.
11Z sfc analysis shows a center of high pressure over the area which has resulted in calm winds and VFR conditions across the area overnight. /issued 325 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/ Area remains in northwesterly flow with trough axis situated over the SE US. Winds will gradually become southerly this afternoon and high pressure shifts off to the east and this will begin a moderating trend with temperatures expected to get back into the low to mid 70s on Saturday ahead of the next cool front expected to cross the area Saturday night.
This will push temperatures some 6-8 degrees warmer compared to yesterday for afternoon highs so expect most areas to top out near the 70 degree mark with very pleasant conditions expected after we get through the morning chill. The warming trend continues through Saturday as well with lower to mid 70s expected by afternoon as our next cold front begins moving into our NW zones and quickly spills south through the remainder of the region Saturday night.
428 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017 Latest analysis shows an upper trough dropping southward across eastern Montana and western North Dakota early this morning in line with the surface cold front. Expect some light rain with the frontal passage this morning, especially over the northern Black Hills, with dry weather this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
938 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 High pressure provides dry weather today into tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday with limited moisture.
Today a upper level trough will dig from the Canadian Plains into the Great Lakes region and this will force a weak cold front through the area this evening. However, with a lack of cold air behind the front temperatures will still remain above normal on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
That, plus weak mid level ridging will usher in a slightly warmer air mass. Sunny skies will also help and highs will be warmer than previous days, in the lower 60s. Highs will be a deg or two cooler than Friday due to the cloud cover. The front should be through NW AL around 3-6PM and out NE AL by 6-9PM with winds quickly shifting to the NW and cooler and drier air filtering in. Guidance is keeping lows in the mid to upper 30s due to the slow filtering in of the lower dew points.
933 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 A very cold start this morning but will see considerably warmer temperatures by this afternoon with skies becoming sunny and generally light east winds. Once the low clouds do erode, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast. High pressure will move slowly east of the region today with light easterly flow.
Once the low clouds do erode, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast. High pressure will move slowly east of the region today with light easterly flow.
A slow moving band of snow transitioning over the forecast area associated with the right-rear quadrant of the jet will be east of the ridges by mid-morning. This afternoon will be dry with clearing skies as high pressure builds in over the region. Max temperatures will average around 15-20 degrees cooler than observed yesterday with northwesterly flow behind the front. Light winds and limited cloud coverage overnight with high pressure centered over the forecast area will allow for strong radiational cooling and lows bottoming out in the teens to high single digits.
A relatively narrow band of sleet mixed with freezing rain continues to make eastward progress, now east of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Getting some healthy rates in the Bluegrass region, with moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s for many this morning, but will warm above freezing around midday. Highs this afternoon are forecast to reach the low to mid 40s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A brisk northeast wind will make it feel somewhat cooler. Quiet and clear conditions tonight, with lows dropping into the low 20s to low 30s. High pressure shifts east on Tuesday, and return flow will begin to setup.
Ahead of the upper low, a large expanse of Pacific moisture was streaming across the Rockies into the northern/central Plains. large area of high pressure was centered over southern Saskatchewan was continuing to build southward into the lower 48. expect highs may be able to push into the low/mid 20s.
High pressure will move toward and across central Indiana over the next couple of days bringing dry weather and slowly warming temperatures.
The approaching cold front presently over north central GA to the wern FL panhandle will slowly move east and then push in from the northwest to north tonight. Cold front will move through tonight with cigs lowering to low end MVFR. Increasing north-northeast expected tonight as cold front moves through.
634 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 High pressure over eastern MT resulting in NW sfc flow over valley and adjacent regions.
409 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018 An upper trough is strengthening across the western CONUS this morning with flow aloft across the CWA becoming more west/southwesterly.
649 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 High pressure will build into the region from the Great Lakes today and Tuesday.
1050 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 RAP40 analysis shows a deep lyr anticyclone extending from Bermuda into the ern GOMex, generating a steady southerly flow acrs central FL. Lcl wind profilers show the H100-H85 mean flow has diminished a touch over the past 12hrs as a weak frontal boundary over the Deep South/FL Panhandle has eroded the wrn flank of the anticyclone a touch. Much of this moisture was in the H100-H70 lyr due to moisture pooling within the approaching frontal trof. Sfc/bndry lyr winds fcst to gradually diminish this aftn as a cold front presses into N FL and erodes the wrn flank of the ridge.
658 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a trough from ne Canada and Hudson Bay into the nrn Great Lakes resulting wrly mid/upper level flow through the region. At the surface, a ridge of arctic high pressure extended from Saskatchewan and Manitoba into the nrn plains and Mississippi valley. Tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions this evening will allow temps to drop to around -10 inland, toward the lower end of guidance, before increasing clouds and weak WAA result in rising temps late.
458 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 A reinforcing arctic cold front is settling south through the far southern CWA early this morning and will eventually stall just south of the CWA for today, leaving us with a cold low-level air mass as another upper level jet streak helps induce flurries/light snow north or the front over the bulk of our CWA for late this afternoon into the evening.
High pressure will move slowly east of the region today with light easterly flow.
extending from low pressure just east of James Bay thru the Straits and SE Wisconsin into the Central Plains. Strong arctic high pressure is centered north of Montana and the Dakotas. with strong surface ridging and very cold air extending thru the Northern Plains. Low level convergence along the cold front combined with over-lake instability and some enhanced moisture along the front continues to produce lake snow showers across portions of Chippewa county. the arctic cold front will slide thru our CWA this morning.
The flow aloft has become southwesterly as a deep trough digs over the western CONUS.
This high cloud will continue to march into western Kansas today, but it is a bit uncertain how opaque this cloud will be later on in the day as it moves across our region. Southeast winds of around 15 mph will persist through the night, and this along with continued mid to high cloud cover in place will result in temperatures only bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s across the southwest KS region.
Arctic high pressure over the area with very cold conditions and dangerous wind chills this morning highlight the short term. Currently, arctic high pressure extended from southeastern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, into northeastern Montana and much of North Dakota. The large upper level low pressure system in the southwestern US is forecast to diminish as an upper ridge builds over the west coast and northern Rockies.
CIGs should improve back to VFR by around noon as the low level RH values decrease through the morning hours. Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough over the country with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was moving over South Central Texas and winds were generally light. Cooler and drier air has moved in with temperatures five to 25 degrees lower than 24 hours ago and dew point temperatures 10 to 30 degrees lower. The low level flow will be northerly to easterly today and tonight. Tuesday a frontal boundary over the Gulf will push back to the northwest as a warm front pushing moisture back over the region.
Kept accumulations mainly west of the James River as the low levels will have a bit more moisture there.
323 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018 Main concerns this period will be with some decent snowfall amounts over the higher mtns then a potential wind event later Tuesday evening into Weds. Cold front has moved across the CWA but so far fog has been limited to extreme southeast Wy from about Cheyenne west to near the I-80 Summit area. Lee trough will deepen gradually during the day Tuesday with a pretty good pressure gradient Tuesday across southeast Wy Tuesday night into Weds.
Snow has been falling steadily along the Highway 160 corridor from Pagosa to Durango as temperatures cooler than anticipated there. A closed low will form over the western Great Basin today and tonight, which will continue to draw moisture into the area from the south.
442 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 A reinforcing arctic cold front is settling south through the far southern CWA early this morning and will eventually stall just south of the CWA for today, leaving us with a cold low-level air mass as another upper level jet streak helps induce flurries/light snow north or the front over the bulk of our CWA for late this afternoon into the evening.
Current GOES-16 WV loop imagery shows western CONUS upper low becoming more established and undergoing the process of becoming a cut-off feature. Quasi-zonal flow pattern established over the central CONUS with previous mid to upper trough now stretched from the Mid-MS Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region. Today, upper pattern becomes more southwesterly flow oriented into the region as the western CONUS cut-off low becomes more anchored in place. Have maintained lower high temps over the region with around 30 in northern areas with snowpack and warmer near 40 over portions of east central KS. Overnight lows in the low 20s should be reasonable.
A closed low will form over the western Great Basin today and tonight, which will continue to draw moisture into the area from the south.
549 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018 Broad high pressure centered over the Dakotas will build across the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes today and Tuesday before reaching the east coast Tuesday night.