Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
910 PM MST Thu Nov 17 2016 Large scale upper level trough continues to shift east into the Central US tonight with NW flow aloft in its wake over the northern Rockies and MT downstream of an upper ridge approaching the West Coast. Expect VFR for most of TAF period as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds-in from the Pac NW. In addition, freezing fog with MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY may develop later this evening and especially overnight tonight.
Run-to-run trend model analysis continue to suggest the cold front timing is on track with earlier assessments. Increased cloud coverage is expected across most areas this evening continuing through Friday ahead of a strong cold front. As the cold front moves through the area, a line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to affect parts of the Hill Country and areas along and east of I-35.
Upper level analysis places deep trough over the Rockies with low closing off over Colorado. aforementioned upper low ejects into the central plains overnight and lifts towards the upper midwest. Temperatures will be chilly, with most locations only reaching into the lower 30s. Going into the weekend into the start of the work week, upper ridge gradually builds and pushes over the area bringing a slow warming trend and quiet conditions. A large low pressure system over Nebraska early this Friday morning is forecast to track northeastward into Minnesota later today.
341 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 Dry high pressure is in control today and a sunny and warm day is expected with high temperatures running 12-16 degrees above normal.
Thickening and lowering cloud deck advancing out ahead of a strong cold front enters the picture by late afternoon/evening. In the meantime, southwesterly flow will begin increasing tonight between departing high pressure to the east and deepening system to the west. As surface cold front approaches, clouds will increase from the west late in the day Friday with frontal showers expected Friday night with passage occurring around the midnight time frame.
1020 PM MST Thu Nov 17 2016 Imagery showing large trof dominating the western 3/4ths of the CONUS with the primary trof axis bisecting MT and WT. The surface has lee cyclone is rapidly developing over sern CO with cold front well to the south and over CO/KS border then across srn CO and into nrn NM. A weak N/S oriented sfc trof exists over central WY. This afternoon and tonight, the upper trof will continue to translate east across the FA as rapid cyclogenesis proceeds over the Plains as described above. Patchy fog in place for most of the lower elevations both east or west of the Divide.
Strong cold front extended from WI to central IA and then into west TX. Forecast focus on transition from summer to winter! Today: Strong cold front will advance across the cwa, reaching our far eastern counties during the afternoon. With the passage of the front winds veer west and temperatures drop like a rock! By late afternoon readings will be in the lower 40s in our western counties with wind chills in the lower 30s. Tonight: The cyclone will be tracking across western and northern WI and then into the northern Great Lakes. The big story will be the howling winds to around 40 mph and cold temperatures, with lows in the upper 20s west to the lower 30s east.
159 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 Strong cold front was situated just east of the Kansas turnpike at 07z and will exit southeast Kansas before dawn.
Winds aloft aren't as strong as they were during the afternoon but there may still be some gusts of 40 to 45 mph after the low passes by. By late morning it looks like the pressure gradient slackens with the low moving further away. Cold air advection will continue Friday night, pushing temperatures below freezing CWA-wide and likely providing the first real hard freeze for many areas since the advection cooling will be much more persistent than the brief, varying radiational cooling of the last "freeze.
101 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 High pressure will prevail through late week.
1240 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 Warm and dry high pressure will hold over the region through tonight.
Cold front currently moving across the Plains will begin to move through the terminals from northwest to southeast between 10-12Z. At the surface, low pressure was centered near Medicine Lodge, KS, and a cold front extended south and west down into the TX South Plains. A stationary front extended northeast from the low across Central Kansas and into the upper Midwest. Strong and gusty northwest winds will prevail over the region on Friday behind the front, ushering in much cooler and drier air into the region. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight with scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along boundary late tonight across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.
1229 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through Friday with above normal temps.
With cold temperatures overnight, snowmelt on untreated roadways will likely re-freeze with temperatures in the low to mid-teens in both mountain and valley locations by Friday morning. Elsewhere, a drying trend is expected as skies clear and high pressure builds in from the west.
Otherwise, the main concern with this system remains the developing strong/gusty northwest winds in wake of the cold front overnight through Friday. Winds will quickly subside by late afternoon/early evening on Fri as high pressure builds over the area. Strong radiational cooling under the ridge will result in the coldest night of the season with lows falling to near 20 across portions of central KS.
Localized areas of snow packed roads along the mountain foothills, including the Bighorns, will especially see difficulty tonight as temperatures will not climb above freezing until at least tomorrow afternoon. The lower atmosphere will be very moist from recent precipitation and climatology often favors some fog forming after a widespread precipitation event. Friday will be another cool, but quiet, day as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. The recent snow cover will likely keep conditions cooler along and near the mountains, with temperatures struggling to climb above freezing.
206 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 An upper level low is currently pushing east across the Plains as a corresponding cold front pushes east across eastern Kansas early this morning. Temperatures ahead of the front are currently only in the lower to middle 60s which is warmer than normal highs this time of year. Temperatures will likely be 15 to 20 degrees warmer going to work this morning than they will be coming home this afternoon/early evening. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s as the colder conditions spread into the area.
High pressure over the eastern United States at the surface and a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico at the mid-levels are the major synoptic features influencing weather over the peninsula of Florida today into the weekend. The mid- level ridge will begin to slide eastward as a frontal boundary pushes east from the central United States.
The upper closed low was centered near Kearney Nebraska. A cold front has advanced through western Nebraska with northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Mainly clear skies this evening, then increasing high cloudiness after midnight as the upper ridge axis builds across the Central Rockies. Winds chills will fall into the low single digits in most areas late this evening and overnight.
A strong cold front will push east into the Mid-South this afternoon and this evening.
A ridge is moving over the area and mostly clear skies and light winds are expected to continue tonight. The mostly clear skies and light winds will promote radiative cooling and expect temperature tonight to be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. Made some winds changes late tonight and especially tomorrow when pressure gradients will tighten up with a warm front passage and favor southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph in Central Oregon and the Eastern Oregon mountains.
Upper low progressing east across central Colorado this afternoon with snow expanding slowly across the CWA. Friday will be cool with clearing skies across the CWA as high pressure slides across the area into the central and southern plains.
At the same time, moisture will slowly begin to move northward ahead of a sharpening cold frontal boundary that is forecast to move into our area by early Friday. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible along or perhaps slightly behind the cold frontal boundary. The better shot of rainfall will be east of the Highway 65 corridor, however, at the very least, scattered activity is certainly possible area wide. As the cold front moves into the eastern Ozarks, timing does support a conditional strong storm threat from midday through mid-afternoon. Some locations that start out around 60 (or perhaps warmer) will likely drop off into the upper 40s by late afternoon/evening.
Winds have died down, and the high clouds won't do much to inhibit cooling, so forecast lows still look good.
1024 PM MST Thu Nov 17 2016 UPDATED AVIATION Large scale upper level trough continues to shift east into the Central US tonight with NW flow aloft in its wake over the northern Rockies and MT downstream of an upper ridge approaching the West Coast. Expect VFR for most of TAF period as high pressure continues to build-in from the Pac NW. However, isolated light snow showers and associated pockets of MVFR CIGS/VSBY, mainly over north-central MT, should dissipate between 09Z and 12Z/Fri as a weak disturbance skirting the ridge exits our area to the southeast and abundant low- to mid-level moisture decreases. In addition, freezing fog with MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY may develop overnight tonight.
Deep layer ridging will remain over our area for one more day before a pattern chance over the weekend. After another cool start to the day, temperatures will warm into the lower 80s inland areas and mid to upper 70s along the coast.
256 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 A strong cold front continues to sweep quickly east. but highs will be a good 20 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday. Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow temperatures to fall below freezing Friday night across a large portion of the forecast area.
The axis of a surface and upper ridge will move east of our area today, allowing warm south winds to increase.
However, with temperatures still above freezing there has been little to no accumulation. The low in Iowa will weaken through this evening as the secondary low becomes the dominant weather feature. As this low track across Kansas and into western Iowa by 12Z Friday, upper level forcing will bring widespread accumulating snow into this CWA. A few lightning strikes have been observed with the upper level low in Colorado.
A flat NW flow will be over the area today and will transition to an upper ridge that will prevail over the region through Sat.
A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms to central Indiana.
a closed low was forming over northeast Colorado and 12 hour height falls of up to 110 meters were noted over western Kansas. Surface analysis had a low pressure over northwest Missouri, with a cold front extending south into Oklahoma at 09Z. Winds are expected to decrease tonight, especially after midnight, as a ridge of high pressure at the surface builds in from the west.
250 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 Strong upper trough was observed deepening northeast over the northern plains this morning. The cold front has just passed through Emporia where temps quickly fell by 10 to 15 degrees within the previous hour. Underneath the overcast skies, highs do not deviate much in the lower 40s. Lows are coldest towards the Nebraska border in the lower 20s with middle to upper 20s seen elsewhere.
Seemingly significant upper level trough will swing through here over the next 36 hours. This trough, and associated seemingly significant cold front, will bring a seemingly less significant amount of rain to the area.
High pressure and warmer weather will return for the weekend.
A deep, mid- latitude trough is moving east across the Rockies this afternoon, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. Strong southerly winds have developed in the warm sector of the surface cyclone, with gusts as high as 30 mph over northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. The attendant cold front is expected to move across northeast AR during the early afternoon hours, reaching the Mississippi River by 3-4 PM, gradually moving east to Tennessee River by 8 PM or so.
338 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 The cooler airmass is moving into Oklahoma this morning.
351 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 Cold front has cleared the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and it is well on its way to reach the Gulf by early this evening.
255 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 Warm and dry high pressure will hold over the region through tonight.
433 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 Dry high pressure will remain across the area today with above normal temps.
Winds will slowly weaken overnight as the low pressure system tracks to the northeast and pressure gradient slackens.
Latest models continue to show a high chance of light rain for all areas Friday night as cold front moves across Middle Tennessee, with most areas seeing generally 0.
A ridge is moving over the area and mostly clear skies and light winds are expected to continue tonight. The mostly clear skies and light winds will promote radiative cooling and expect temperature tonight to be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. Made some winds changes late tonight and especially tomorrow when pressure gradients will tighten up with a warm front passage and favor southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph in Central Oregon and the Eastern Oregon mountains. The extent of the fog and low stratus is uncertain, especially with some of the low level moisture ending up as frost.
The upstream ridge will move thru Sun and drift E of the region Mon with SW flow developing. The next trof will move in off the Pac Sun night. Return flow will remain thru Mon with an intensify leeside trof. This low is fcst to eject ENE across KS Tue and into IA Tue night. in the commahead/def zone N and NW of the low ejecting across KS.
358 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 An upper level trough is over the central part of the country with a cold front moving into the area. Temperatures are expected to reach the freezing point across northern Lea County this morning so a Freeze Warning is in effect. These conditions will allow for temperatures tonight to cool to freezing or below across many locations in the CWA.
Then a cold front will move through the region tonight. This will result in much cooler temperatures for the weekend. Ridge axis at the surface and aloft will remain southeast of the area today. Highs should be near or slightly warmer than yesterday which will be near record warmth. Strong cold front will cross the area overnight.
Record or near record warmth today will yield to impending changes coming tomorrow-tomorrow night in the form of the developing cold front and its ultimate passage that will usher in much colder air for the weekend.
A warming trend will begin today as high pressure moves across the area. A low pressure system moving through will bring rain to the area over the weekend. Temperatures will warm today as high pressure slides off to the east and return flow develops. Temperatures will be a bit slow to rebound due to the snow cover, but the warm advection will still manage to bring the highs into the 40s to around 50. A warm front will move into the area on Saturday and bring rain chances with it.
Looking aloft, a broad ridge across the CONUS will support warmer than normal temperatures (highs climbing to around 70-75 degrees). Relatively thin cirrus on the eastern half of the ridge will continue to move overhead today. Isentropic lift in the lowest levels of the atmosphere is expected to generate increasing low clouds and possible drizzle or light rain across parts of the forecast area by Saturday morning.
806 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Arctic high pressure exits this morning. Quick warm-up through this weekend, with warm front crossing Saturday.
Temps where there isn't snow should easily reach the mid to upper 60s, but will be tempered to only the lower to mid 50s where snow cover exists, with considerable melting expected. This could generate some rain along the NE/SD border region, and given warm temps aloft, if anything develops 6am-9am, it could be rain or freezing rain with surface temps near freezing, before becoming all rain by mid morning and beyond. Highs Saturday about 10 degrees cooler than today, still in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Wind will continue to veer to the southwest, this afternoon bringing much warmer air into the Mid Mississippi Valley from the eastern Great Plains. Low pressure will be developing over Kansas tonight which will keep persistent the south-southwest flow over most of our area resulting in continuing mild temperatures. Low level moisture return will likely produce stratus across the southeast Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
350 AM PST Fri Feb 10 2017 Showers today with snow over the higher elevations causing travel impacts.
A warming trend will begin today as high pressure moves across the area. A low pressure system moving through will bring rain to the area over the weekend. High pressure was found southeast of Indiana late this morning as southeasterly winds were in place across the forecast area. A warm front will move into the area on Saturday and bring rain chances with it.
Only a few thin high clouds in the northwest-west flow aloft today, but some areas of low clouds tonight with the low level moisture return and some weak low/mid isentropic lifting developing. After a cold start to the day (with temps in the 30s and 40s), expect afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 60s areawide. Lows tonight ranging from the mid and upper 40s over interior east (which will still be a little more under the influence of the exiting low level ridge), to the low to mid 50s southwestern and coastal areas that will be more influenced by the return flow.
611 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Cold high pressure over the forecast area this morning will move off the coast this afternoon.
A warm night was underway under an upper ridge and stream of mid to high-level clouds. The gradient was also becoming more W to E oriented, so will cancel the High Wind Warning. A cold front will accompany the wave. It will be cooler with temperatures in the 30s. Upper ridging will amplify over the northern Rockies into the middle part of the week.
/issued 433 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2017/ Temps will be flirting with record highs today as overhead ridging dominates the weather pattern. Winds will veer to the west as the lee trough currently in place across across eastern NM and CO pushes eastward. Also assisting in the warm temps today will be thermal ridging with the axis being situated across the TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains co-located with the highest forecasted temps. Winds will be on the breezy side, 20-25 mph, and will help to create elevated fire weather conditions as the abnormally warm temps help lower min RH values to the low teens.
Highs today will be much warmer than yesterday thanks to the strong southerly flow, and highs will get to the upper 50s and around 60 for most of the mid state. With the low level moisture moving in, there may be just drizzle for most of the area but went ahead and put in shower mention as short term models put in scattered precip starting on Saturday morning.
552 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Currently monitoring the far north for freezing rain potential. The big weather stories are today's warm up, this morning's light snow accumulations, and the slight chance for freezing rain/sleet this morning. There is a slight chance of freezing rain or sleet from Hallock to Bemidji and northeast through the Lake of the Woods region this morning as the warm air aloft pushes into the region.
403 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2017 Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with stout warm front lifting over western into central North Dakota. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the central United States. Rather broad cloud cover has developed as the warmer air pushes into the area.
856 AM MST Fri Feb 10 2017 Updated to delay the start of the winter storm warning for the higher mtns until this evening as relatively warm temperature currently there should significantly limit snowfall until then. Not as much subsidence as yesterday but winds aloft definitely strong enough to warrant continuation of the high wind warning. Cooler temperatures in the wake of the cold front. Cooler overnight low temperatures with clearing skies and a colder airmass in place.
Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan with stout warm front lifting over western into central North Dakota. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the central United States. Rather broad cloud cover has developed as the warmer air pushes into the area.
The upper ridge over the Rockies flattens as it moves east over the plains today.
947 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 A quiet morning across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region with high pressure at the surface in control. However, winds will veer to the SW by the afternoon, and with the partly to mostly sunny conditions -- a much warmer day is on tap by the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 42 64 55 / 0 0 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 40 61 55 / 0 0 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 56 40 59 54 / 0 0 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 35 60 48 / 0 0 20 30 TN.
The broad 500mb ridge encompassing much of the continental U. The northern end of the 500mb trough currently sliding into the Pacific Northwest will slide over southern Saskatchewan and MT Saturday morning, and pivot across the Dakotas by 00-06Z Saturday. The southern end of the 500mb trough will cut off from the main trough and sink across southern CA during the same time.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today and into tonight with highs in the upper 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 70s across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
The lowest visibilities thus far have been concentrated across the far north where visibilities have only been reduced to 2 to 3 miles at times. Weak ridging will keep the weather dry but cloudy across the area tonight as overnight lows stay relatively warm from 25 to 30 degrees. A low pressure system passing to the south on Saturday could bring some rain across the far southern cwa during the afternoon hours. Highs on Saturday will be similar to today or a degree or two warmer.
602 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Considerable high cloud cover this morning will thin into this afternoon with warmer air returning to the region courtesy of gusty southwest winds.
We should remain below record levels today as the record high temps are in the low 80s for both TUL and FSM.
Strong warm air advection taking place in the lower atmosphere has begun warming temperatures early this morning, a trend that will only continue as this warmer airmass overspreads the region today.
These gusts will continue this afternoon as the low tracks to our north along the International Border, before weakening this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. Mild temperatures will persist into tonight, with lows right around freezing. Weak low pressure will develop over the central Great Plains Saturday morning, and track south of Wisconsin through the day. This is occurring between a low pressure system tracking east along the U. /Canadian border and high pressure over the SE U. Despite the strong WAA, the atmosphere in the low and mid levels remains very dry, so despite radar showing returns, nothing is expected to reach the ground. Temps fall back into the lower 30s overnight, but it remains dry.
Cold front passing through swrn Idaho at this hour with rain showers. Upper trough along the northwest coast will move inland today with a couple more weak shower bands, but the main thing will be significant cooling tonight and Saturday.