Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
908 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAT POPS CONTINUED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
DRIER NW FLOW EXISTS OVER OUR REGION TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. STRONG/DRY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WX MONDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAY YET OF 2015 TOMORROW WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S MANY PLACES.
EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A TROUGH WAS DEEPENING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN IL TRAILING SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SE IA/NRN MO/NE KS. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S AREA-WIDE.
/ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ * TSTORMS FOCUS INTERIOR/GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST TUE-WED * HAZY WITH LIMITED TSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK; CONTINUING THE DRY RAINY SEASON START THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS OVER FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS LIES TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUE- WED. BUT A NOTABLE SW STEERING WIND ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSUES ON TUE AS TROUGHING MOVES TO THE U.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROF IS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SD. MONDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND WESTERLY WINDS USHER IN A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
1021 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 CURRENTLY - A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO EYW AND FEW QUICK SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT PLAYED A ROLE IN LIMITED PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALSO MOVED WELL INLAND. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SURFACE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA SLIDING SOUTH INTO N/C FL BY EARLY EVENING.
WITH MINIMAL CAPPING AND NOW BEING ANCHORED ON THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MON. OR MAYBE WE ARE JUST LEFT IN A SUMMER PATTERN ON WEST SIDE OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE. -HOWERTON AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE TURNPIKE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS ALLOWING SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
1137 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 THE COLD FRONT. IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOOSING OUT AS WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME WESTERLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND.
DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RETROGRADING/WEAKENING OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. THE REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPS HAS BEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT HOLDING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WILL BE OUR LOWS FOR TOMORROW AROUND SUNRISE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS RELAX.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER SUNRISE.
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS.
710 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
FOR 00Z TAFS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO SRN WI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS WEAK TROUGH COULD EEK ITS WAY CLOSE TO THE STATE BY 12Z.
WITH MINIMAL CAPPING AND NOW BEING ANCHORED ON THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MON. OR MAYBE WE ARE JUST LEFT IN A SUMMER PATTERN ON WEST SIDE OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES JUST SOUTH OF I-70.
1058 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES AND A LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT BACK TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST PLACES IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT.
710 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAT POPS CONTINUED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
THESE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEMONSTRATED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES OBSERVED ABOVE THE LOWER VOLUME CUTS ON THE RADAR DATA.
WARMER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AROUND THE SAME IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES. REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION CUTS ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO ON MONDAY. BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE BETTER DEFINED WITH RIDGE AXIS TILTED FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS MOVES EAST AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. NW AL WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT. RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY. THE NEXT WX MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY IS AN UPPER TROF/SFC CDFNT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THIS TROF/CDFNT MOVES EAST TONIGHT/MONDAY. WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG IN TAFS ATTM SINCE TIME SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015 This period will be characterized by a building 500mb ridge from Texas into the Ozarks. With the building ridge, any convection looks to remain north and west of the area through the day tomorrow with a complex likely to develop later Wednesday afternoon over the Plains. Biggest question in this time frame is position of the upper level ridge and handling of potential MCS's rolling out the the Central Plains towards the area, so overall low confidence in the details of the forecast.
THE GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEARS AND POSSIBLY CROSSES EAST OF OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAVE POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS OKEECHOBEE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. KRLX RADAR INDICATED A BOUNDARY PROPAGATED NW INTO THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED IN THE CHARLESTON AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN A LIGHT FLOW REGIME BUT BETTER MIXING WED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE SHOULD GIVE RISE TO BREAKS AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LEEWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERSION AND CLOUD DECK HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE S. COOL REGIME OVER THE LOWLANDS AND A SUNNIER. WARMER REGIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE E TRIES TO WORK WWD IN THE ERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SEATTLE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE SISKIYOUS AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK OFFSHORE RIDGING EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A CLOSED LOW WILL START TO FORM OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL CLOSE AND BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
The reminder of the day and through tomorrow will be dry as an upper ridge continues to build over the southern Plains. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with most locations reaching the lower 90s. Models still build an impressive ridge aloft over Texas by this weekend.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT AS REGION REMAINS IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
550 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FOR A DEEPER MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN AS A WEST COAST UPPER LOW EVOLVES WITH TIME.
649 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS SITTING JUST SE OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE W OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP MORE S THAN EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, SO CLOUD TRENDS ARE A TOUGH CALL.
/ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SSWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MAINTAINING A DRY NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN OLD MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE RIDGING IS EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY REAL SHOT AT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/END INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE WEEK. NOW INDICATIONS ARE THIS RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER TO EAST. ALLOWING MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA TO RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A NEAR STATIONARY 850MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE HIGHER POP GUIDANCE.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND HANGING NEAR PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE PESKY UPPER LOW IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. WITH TROF STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN NEB. A COLD FRONT HANGS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST ND TO CENTRAL MT. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BUILDING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT. WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WY AND MT. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 60S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
PERSISTANT RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAS BROUGHT A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH TO THE FAR NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY NEAR AND EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED.
OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WRN U. AND THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER ERN TN. THE RIDGE IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO NOSE EWD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. FORCING THE UPPER LOW EWD. AND THE RIDGE INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA.
722 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE BETWEEN CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA. OBVIOUSLY NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT DID LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND CUT FORECAST TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.
1254 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING AWAY FROM MID TN INTO EAST TN TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. AND PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE.
Upper low has moved along the KY/TN border today and made it as far east as the I-75 corridor. Low-level moisture has persisted over the Ohio Valley, keeping a low stratus deck in place and limiting temps to the lower/mid 60s in most places, and a few spots in the Bluegrass region have not gotten out of the 50s. For Wednesday, the models remain optimistic but it will still be tough going with the 850mb thermal trof remaining over central Kentucky. Will err on the side of a cloudy forecast, and keep the max temp forecast in line with the cooler NAM MOS. Ridging aloft finally becomes enough of a factor Wednesday night that cloud cover should scatter out.
AND THERMAL SUPPORT AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING INTO THE AREA.
A COUPLE UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS AND THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND A VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER /PER 00Z KABR RAOB/. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/END INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PUSHING CLOUDS AND RAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
09 /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY/TN. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE SE AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON WED. RSB /ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS SITTING JUST SE OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE W OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP MORE S THAN EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, SO CLOUD TRENDS ARE A TOUGH CALL.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER EASTERN TN HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERERD TSRA ACROSS THE AREA.
644 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO IOWA. TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL START TO GET FLATTENED TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OFF INTO CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TOPPING WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS BUILD DOWN WITH SOME FOG PUSHING BACK ONTO THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT. PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.
644 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST. A BIT MORE GRADIENT FLOW AND WARMING 925MB TEMPS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
816 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN TN WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WILL SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SO THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A THREAT OF GETTING THAT COLD.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
801 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
807 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PUSHING CLOUDS AND RAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR EAST CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR/MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
930 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO IOWA. TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
705 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF AREA MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE.
911 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
AN H5 RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE DEFLECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THEY NOW AGREE ON THE HIGH RETROGRADING BACK WEST ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION.
921 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015 BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
1156 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TOWARD SUNRISE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA (AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE) TRANSPORT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG INTO THE AREA.
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A NEAR STATIONARY 850MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
925 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN A LIGHT FLOW REGIME BUT BETTER MIXING WED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE SHOULD GIVE RISE TO BREAKS AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LEEWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERSION AND CLOUD DECK HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE S. COOL REGIME OVER THE LOWLANDS AND A SUNNIER. WARMER REGIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE E TRIES TO WORK WWD IN THE ERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FULLY IN CONTROL NOW OF SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
This period will be characterized by a building 500mb ridge from Texas into the Ozarks. With the building ridge, any convection looks to remain north and west of the area through the day tomorrow with a complex likely to develop later Wednesday afternoon over the Plains. Biggest question in this time frame is position of the upper level ridge and handling of potential MCS's rolling out the the Central Plains towards the area, so overall low confidence in the details of the forecast.