Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure drifting across the Great Lakes will give us light east to southeast winds over Lake Michigan today, along with quiet weather. Another fairly warm day is expected today with highs likely reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of southern Wisconsin, however light east/southeast winds will keep areas near the shore a bit cooler.
74 inches and again shows drier air in the lower layers and moisture contained mainly in the middle/upper reaches of the profile. Drier air remains in place, especially the low-levels with below average precip chances this afternoon and evening.
Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. Upper level ridging east of "Barry" will begin building into the area through the day. The remnants of "Barry" will be moving slowly up the Mississippi River Valley early this week which allows high pressure to build over the Southeast U. Subsiding air underneath this high will lead to a reduced chance of precipitation.
643 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Very warm weather today, but less humid as a cold front sweeps across our region.
218 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Two main weather features will largely control the weather across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the next 7 days: first the remnants of Barry in the short term followed by a strengthening upper level ridge. Barry's influence will begin to wane toward the middle of the week, with upper level ridging rapidly building into the south central United States.
201 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 (Tonight and Monday) Quiet weather is expected for tonight and tomorrow as a high pressure ridge continues to sit across the area. Winds will be light tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower 70s. For tomorrow, expect partly cloudy skies with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s.
With that said, today's models target Baker County/OR and nwrn Harney County/OR for thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight as an upper trough comes inland from the north Pacific.
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure situated across the eastern Great Lakes will shift east Monday and allow a warm front to pass.
As before, the most severe storms will be isolated and look to occur north and west of Yellowstone County as temperatures aloft are a bit cooler in central Montana. As an upper trough moves off of the coast and through the Pacific Northwest, an upper jet will help provide synoptic forcing. A cold front also looks to move through the area this evening, helping to provide lift for storms and bring temperatures out of the 90's.
Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. Upper level ridging east of "Barry" will begin building into the area through the day. The remnants of "Barry" will be moving slowly up the Mississippi River Valley early this week which allows high pressure to build over the Southeast U. With high pressure ridging aloft and weak high pressure off the Southeast coast, expect more of a typical summer regime of isolated/widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be seasonal for mid/late July with afternoon highs in the middle 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Dewpoints have crept up into the lower 70s today, but near normal highs in the upper 80s have kept heat indices from becoming too stifling. However, that will change later this week as Barry gets absorbed into westerly flow amid quasi-zonal flow and broad ridging. Further south, thicker cloud cover and the possibility of some isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
128 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Hot weather inland will continue through Monday as high pressure dominates the Southwest. A shallow marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler, with low clouds and fog at least during nights and mornings. The high pressure will weaken slightly this week for slightly cooler weather. Like yesterday, some low level moisture in the lower desert has dampened the temperature rise a bit, "only" 108 and 107 at 1 PM at PSP and TRM, respectively. Strong high pressure aloft over the four corners region will continue through Monday. The heat warning in the lower desert and the heat advisory for the Inland Empire continue through Monday.
410 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. Upper air analysis suggest some weak ridging across the area. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The remnants of "Barry" will be moving slowly up the Mississippi River Valley early this week which allows high pressure to build over the Southeast U. Subsiding air underneath this high will lead to a reduced chance of precipitation.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The synoptic scale weather pattern features a persistent features a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the central Rockies and central plains, while a trough of low pressure aloft from the northwestern US states and northern Rockies.
However, with high pressure remaining in control the main hazard continues to be the very high temperatures and heat index values.
327 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper ridge firmly in place across the Midwest today, although there is a weak ripple moving off the northern Rockies, which could help trigger isolated thunderstorms after midnight in northeast NE. New temp guidance coming in for Monday is slightly cooler, so have adjusted temps down a couple degrees.
Across the local forecast area, high pressure will be in place over the rest of the southeastern states and the remnants of Barry are expected to track north, riding around the northern edge of the high pressure before becoming swept up into the westerly flow.
352 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Showers and thunderstorms developing across the high plains this afternoon are expected to fizzle well before reaching the local area this evening.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over nrn NM. Mesoanalysis shows the low-lvl thermal ridge well to the west over wrn NM, allowing temps in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to top out near or even below normal. Instead, heights/thicknesses are forecast to increase after today as Barry is absorbed into the nrn jet and moves off to the east, allowing the ridge to fill back in over the region. Midweek or shortly thereafter, models shift the thermal ridge to ern NM, when the first widespread triple-digit temps will be possible, especially over the Pecos Rvr valley extending up into NM. W/regards to rain chances, the higher terrain will be favored, if at all, in a return/upslope flow regime.
However, dewpoints still remain in the lower to mid 60s across those areas so there are some questions on whether development will occur. Heavy rain again possible with showers and storms tomorrow as the high PWs remain in place. Upper level ridging will be over the southeast and forecast area with just isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight.
This is on the warmer, more moist, side of the forecast envelope. This is likely the result of strong winds aloft across the nrn Plains dictating low pressure to the lee of the Colorado Rockies and outflow from storm activity across the nrn Plains. This will pool moisture across Nebraska but at the same time, h700mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 16C or warmer ending rain chances.
1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper ridge remains situated over the southern Rockies with Tropical Storm Barry now on shore over central LA. Did go ahead and insert some very small shower/storm chances this afternoon over far southeast KS as some cooler mid level temps from Barry work into the area. Did keep some slight chances for storms Mon afternoon but confidence is high that the higher impact heavy rain will stay east of the forecast area. Did go slightly cooler for Mon for areas along and east of I-135 with an increase in cloud cover expected. GFS is more agressive then the ECMWF in trying to bring down a weak cold front into northern KS Thu night into Fri.
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Various waves noted on water vapor satellite imagery will continue to overspread the Northern Plains this afternoon and evening, riding along the periphery of an upper level ridge that will drift east through the short term. Across the west coast, mean troughing begins to amplify slightly, which will bring the potential for at least modest height falls across parts of the west and north the evening and tonight as the compact wave quickly ejects into Montana. With plenty of CAPE floating around and increasing shear through the day, any storms that do form will have the possibility to become severe, but confidence is low regarding storm coverage given the ridging in place and the drying trends that have been noted in the latest guidance.
Breezy conditions will stick around Monday along with slightly cooler temperatures. Winds should begin to decrease after 9 pm, but ridgetop and midslope winds east of highway 395 may remain breezy for a few hours past midnight.
Rain chances along with isolated thunder for the afternoon look good along with slightly cooler temperatures across the eastern zones given the aforementioned cloud cover.
114 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains. Best erosion of the cap this afternoon appears to be along this particular boundary, as well as the trof over south central SD. Temps should be cooler as thermal ridge shifts east of the region.
227 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 VFR conditions throughout the period as high pressure moves over Michigan bringing quiet conditions. High pressure drifting slightly to the east will bring a wind shift out of the south later this afternoon. The relatively cool airmass that will slowly advect into Se Mi today and limited mixing depths due to the mid level subsidence will support afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s, with mid/upper 70s across the thumb and Port Huron regions. The airmass associated with this high is rather dry and will sustain sfc dewpoints in the 50s today with ample afternoon sunshine. A warm frontal feature is forecast to lift into western Lower Mi during the day.
Thereafter, with low level ridging persisting across Florida, we have little confidence in timing the undulations in moisture through the lower troposphere.
908 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Hot weather inland will continue through Monday as high pressure dominates the Southwest. A shallow marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler, with low clouds and fog at least during nights and mornings. The high pressure will weaken slightly this week for slightly cooler weather. The low level moisture in the lower desert will serve to dampen the temperature rise, so 113 might be all they can manage today. Strong high pressure aloft over the four corners region will continue through Monday. The heat warning in the lower desert and the heat advisory for the Inland Empire continue through Monday.
244 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 No significant chances to the forecast as the upper high is still expected to dominate through much of the period. The upper trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest is still expected to weaken the ridge somewhat by mid week and could allow for some thunderstorm development mainly across the western half of the FA. The GFS is trying to reminisce about older solutions where the high build/retreats eastward allowing monsoonal moisture to infiltrate the region thus increasing chances for precip. The ECMWF is sticking to its word of keeping the upper high, for the most part, overhead thus limiting any precip chances.
The higher amounts are associated with those convective bands.
126 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Very warm weather today, but less humid as a cold front sweeps across our region.
An approaching upper level trough has already brought in cooler temperatures with most areas reporting current readings a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Current temperatures are ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s at the coast to the 70s and 80s around the Bay, with warmest locations in the lower 90s. Coastal stratus is expected to spread inland once again tonight as the upper level trough deepens. SFO Bridge Approach. Moderate to gusty northwest winds will continue through early week as high pressure sits over the eastern Pacific and a thermal trough resides over California.
An ongoing dry pattern will continue to kick off the week Monday as weak ridging aloft remains in control across the region. Even as a prevailing south-southeast upslope flow supports increased moisture in the high plains of western Kansas, providing modest instability, an extremely weak northwest flow aloft and capping will significantly limit precip chances through late Monday afternoon. Mild temperatures are likely again tonight with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains.
Additional storms should develop over the higher terrain of the Black Hills Monday afternoon.
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure offshore will build back toward land, limiting shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated in coverage. High pressure ridging into the area from the east will result in mainly fair but warm weather through the period. It should be noted though that isolated storms are possible along the sea breeze and a lingering but weakening trough of low pressure inland.
One batch is moving off the mountains, with varying intensity and some weakening in the lower elevations. A WSW-ENE oriented jet ahead of a PacNW upper trough starts pushing the southern Rockies upper high south and east.
Impactful weather: Small chance of showers very late tonight Pattern synopsis/forecast: High pressure has brought a lack of sensible weather today, with no real chance of precipitation until possibly very late tonight as a warm front slowly approaches the area. As the high progresses to the southeast tonight we'll get into some return southerly flow. Attention turns to the next system which will pass our area to the north, while dragging a warm front across nrn Michigan on Monday in the northern Plains. Moisture rebounds over our region late tonight with the approach of the warm front, but precipitation will likely be fighting some residual dry air, so better rain chances look to hold off until after daybreak. Low pressure will push eastward thru Central and Eastern Canada thru midweek.
It is in these areas where rainfall amounts could remain quite substantial at least until the low level flow relaxes by late afternoon. Convection will become increasingly sparse moving forward through the week as ridge builds over the Gulf Coastal states.
Conditions are very unstable again today, but the trough over the Pacific Northwest has moved a little further east today and is providing better wind shear for strong storms today. Tomorrow the trough over the Pacific Northwest keeps some cooler air in the northern Rockies. Over the next few days the trough will progress eastward keeping the temperatures below average with showers and thunderstorms in the region.
218 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper level high over the Colorado/New Mexico state line should help keep the Panhandles in a northeast flow aloft through tonight which should keep the thunderstorm activity near the mountains, so will continue to go with a dry forecast through tonight. The center of the upper level ridge will slowly slide to the southwest through the middle part of this week. As the ridge slides southwest it will allow upper level winds to come more out of the northwest or west which will tend to pull any mountain convection this way.
Increasing southwest winds will usher warmer air back into southern WI.
An upper level trough has pushed onshore this morning. This trough has very limited moisture associated so main impact with be slightly cooler temperatures and some breezy afternoon and evening westerly winds along the east slopes of the Cascades which spill out into the Columbia Basin. Additional FEW-SCT cumulus coverage is expected over the higher terrain this afternoon.
559 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Showers and thunderstorms developing across the high plains this afternoon are expected to fizzle well before reaching the local area this evening.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: The synoptic scale weather pattern features a persistent features a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the central Rockies and central plains, while a trough of low pressure aloft from the northwestern US states and northern Rockies.
726 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Slightly drier conditions should occur for the beginning of the workweek as high pressure builds. The remnants of "Barry" will be moving slowly up the Mississippi River Valley early this week which allows high pressure to build over the Southeast U. Subsiding air underneath this high will lead to a reduced chance of precipitation.
Cyclonic circulation associated with Barry continues to slowly move north through the lower Mississippi valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 73 92 / 20 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 70 91 / 20 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 88 71 91 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 88 67 91 / 30 30 20 20.
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Upper ridge firmly in place across the Midwest today, although there is a weak ripple moving off the northern Rockies, which could help trigger isolated thunderstorms after midnight in northeast NE. New temp guidance coming in for Monday is slightly cooler, so have adjusted temps down a couple degrees.
344 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure continues to dominate the region but will be forced south by Monday due to an approaching trough currently off the west coast. Lingering moisture in the drier airmass will continue showers Monday afternoon in the higher terrain.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the nw CWA border (Baker County and nw Harney County) this afternoon and spread slowly east tonight as an upper trough comes onshore from the north Pacific. On Monday showers and storms will develop along our northern CWA border then shift to the Idaho side Idaho Monday night as the upper trough comes further inland.
701 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure offshore will build back toward land, limiting shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated in coverage. High pressure ridging into the area from the east will result in mainly fair but warm weather through the period. It should be noted though that isolated storms are possible along the sea breeze and a lingering but weakening trough of low pressure inland.
546 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure continues to dominate the region but will be forced south by Monday due to an approaching trough currently off the west coast. Lingering moisture in the drier airmass will continue showers Monday afternoon in the higher terrain.
/issued 201 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/ (Tonight and Monday) Quiet weather is expected for tonight and tomorrow as a high pressure ridge continues to sit across the area. Winds will be light tonight with low temperatures dropping into the lower 70s. For tomorrow, expect partly cloudy skies with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s.
Precipitation chances are expected to decrease into the late evening/overnight, but may ramp up again by sunrise on Monday as a second weak wave rides over the CWA along the edge of broad/flat upper-level ridging.
A trof over the Pacific Ocean centered along 130W longitude has southern Oregon and northern California under a southwest flow.
There is also a decent amount of both speed and directional shear in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere. Lapse rates are also decent in the lowest 3km at 6. There is a weak cap in place around 600mb, and this will effectively limit convective development to the lowest 15k feet of the atmosphere.
Low level ridge axis will remain across central FL and the adjacent Atlc waters.
625 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure situated across the eastern Great Lakes will shift east Monday and allow a warm front to pass.
741 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 An inland trough will generally prevail through the week. Warmer and drier conditions are anticipated early in the week due to stronger high pressure in place. Slightly cooler and wetter conditions should then return later in the week as the high weakens a bit.
With temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, today has once again seen heat index values topping out in the lower 90s to mid 90s.
753 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 High pressure situated across the eastern Great Lakes will shift east Monday and allow a warm front to pass.
The overall pattern has not changed much since yesterday, with ridging aloft centered over the Florida peninsula extending downward to the surface. Temperatures will drop a few more degrees into the lower 80s, with precipitation remaining isolated at best as the night goes on. From synopsis, a high pressure cell will extend west across the southern half of Florida through the forecast period.
1009 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 An inland trough will generally prevail through the week. Warmer and drier conditions are anticipated early in the week due to stronger high pressure in place. Slightly cooler and wetter conditions should then return later in the week as the high weakens a bit.
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Dry mid level air and subsidence from upper level ridging over the area kept convective development in check again today with only isolated to low end scattered range shower and storm coverage being observed. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight and into the upcoming week with light east-southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. With seas and wave action along the coast continuing to subside this evening will allow the high risk of Rip Currents to expire at 10 PM with much better beach/marine conditions expected during the upcoming week.
Very low chance of thunderstorms this evening and into the early morning hours in south central SD into the highway 14 corridor.
This is partially due to the increased pressure gradient with the exiting Barry and building high pressure ridging westward over the Gulf. In addition water levels in eastern Cameron Parish will continue to rise as water moves through the lower Mermentau Basin from Vermilion Parish.
Otherwise the pcpn should slowly lessen overnight and temps are expected to fall into the 60s with 50s across the higher elevations.
525 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains. Best erosion of the cap this afternoon appears to be along this particular boundary, as well as the trof over south central SD. Temps should be cooler as thermal ridge shifts east of the region.
On Monday, there will still be enough moisture to warrant isolated storms across much of the high country, and a majority of the high resolution model guidance supports this.
/Issued 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/ Two main weather features will largely control the weather across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the next 7 days: first the remnants of Barry in the short term followed by a strengthening upper level ridge. Barry's influence will begin to wane toward the middle of the week, with upper level ridging rapidly building into the south central United States.
/issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/ No significant chances to the forecast as the upper high is still expected to dominate through much of the period. The upper trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest is still expected to weaken the ridge somewhat by mid week and could allow for some thunderstorm development mainly across the western half of the FA. The GFS is trying to reminisce about older solutions where the high build/retreats eastward allowing monsoonal moisture to infiltrate the region thus increasing chances for precip. The ECMWF is sticking to its word of keeping the upper high, for the most part, overhead thus limiting any precip chances.