Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
114 PM MST Sat Feb 20 2021 The short term forecast focus is on the low pressure system that moves quickly across the region overnight tonight, bringing the possibility of light snow with areas of light freezing drizzle and fog. An upper trough moves through the Intermountain region today, east of the Rockies tonight, and across the plains states on Sunday. Some locations may see a light glaze of ice with the fog and freezing drizzle, but confidence in any widespread ice accumulations or impacts is low. Temperatures that have been warming each of the past few days will be shunted briefly on Sunday in the wake of the cold front.
1054 AM MST Sat Feb 20 2021 The short term forecast focus is on the low pressure system that moves quickly across the region overnight tonight, bringing the possibility of light snow with areas of light freezing drizzle and fog. An upper trough moves through the Intermountain region today, east of the Rockies tonight, and across the plains states on Sunday. Some locations may see a light glaze of ice with the fog and freezing drizzle, but confidence in any widespread ice accumulations or impacts is low. Temperatures that have been warming each of the past few days will be shunted briefly on Sunday in the wake of the cold front.
With the focus of both lows farther south, the higher accumulations are also expected to stay south of the cwa. Upper ridging/northwest flow aloft builds in behind this system on Sunday.
1227 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will bring a sunny, dry, and chilly weekend.
For the first time in almost two weeks, nighttime temperatures across our area will stay above freezing. An upper trough will move east across the Plains states Sunday, with associated cold front pushing south across our area during the afternoon. Southwest to west winds in the morning will shift to northwest in the afternoon with the cold frontal passage. Areas farther to the south will have some downsloping effects with the winds, and will end up warmer than today with highs expected to be 60-65 degrees. No moisture to work with so will be a dry front, and the cold front more dry than actual cold.
Therefore, allowed to expire or cancelled the Freezing Fog Advisory and the Hard Freeze Warning. /issued 534 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ 12Z TAFS An area of freezing fog has been meandering across the region early this morning resulting in IFR visibilities and ceilings at LCH and AEX. The freezing fog and low ceilings are expected to dissipate by 14Z leaving mostly clear skies through the remainder of the day. This has resulted in the development of some freezing fog and also helped slow the temperature plummet that was expected. After the fog and freezing temperatures this morning, we are looking for a pretty nice day compared to the past several with temperatures warming from near 50 to the mid 50s.
219 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure and drier air will remain over the region through the weekend with fair but seasonably cool weather.
High pressure is building over the area behind yesterdays cold front. A northerly wind is advecting some cooler and drier air into the area.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 28 56 42 54 / 0 0 0 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 25 54 38 51 / 0 0 0 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 46 25 54 38 51 / 0 0 0 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 20 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 40 80.
130 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Cold high pressure will build overhead tonight and Sunday morning, then shift offshore Sunday night.
An upper trough lifting northeast across Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening hours will produce sufficient vertical motion and low level warm advection for a 1 to 3 inch snowfall despite the lack of much moisture in the atmosphere.
High pressure will move over the area today, and then continue east to the eastern U. Most areas should be near or above freezing for highs today. A positive tilt trof over the central U.
Low clouds and locally gusty winds will prevail over the region today as a cooler northwesterly flow continues. Today's high temperatures are expected a bit cooler this afternoon. In the meantime, the strongest winds will continue for the next few hours in the Kern County mountains and desert, as well as over some of the higher peaks in the southern Sierra Nevada.
1051 AM MST Sat Feb 20 2021 Winds will continue to increase across southern CO ahead of the next upper-level trough forecasted to pass over us this evening. As the upper low approaches the area, southwest flow will begin to increase over the mountains and adjacent valleys and plains, reaching gusts of 25-30 mph. The exact amounts have varied between model runs, but given the amount of lift from upslope winds, frontogenetic forcing and the passing of the upper low, it is possible these snow showers could have more convective characteristics, meaning snow amounts and rate could vary locally.
A passing trough will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts today.
Clear skies and warmer weather result, with highs in the middle to upper 50's for most locations west of I-65 today, and upper 50's to lower 60's along and east of I-65. Perhaps the most challenging forecast aspect of today is the deeper mixed layer that is developing as a result of the slightly warmer temperatures. Very low dew points aloft around 900mb on the order of -20 to -30C are beginning to mix down to the surface, allowing for dew points across the warmer areas to crater late this morning into the lower to middle teens. Forecast models have trended a little warmer for Sunday afternoon, and given a shift to a warm air advection regime have opted to raise temperatures a bit to middle 60's for most locations.
High pressure that was centered directly overhead this morning will move east through Sunday as a low pressure system moves to the Ms Valley. Although tonight will be quite chilly, it should be at least 10 degrees warmer than last night. A few pockets of freezing fog could form near lakes and rivers and in areas with the most remaining snow cover, but the fog coverage should be less than we saw this morning. Sunday will be mainly sunny, warmer, and rather breezy.
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 (Today through Sunday) Warmer temperatures are expected today with temperatures expected to get above freezing areawide. Most of the area should be above freezing through the night, but some areas in the west may be near or slightly below freezing, so some freezing fog will be possible.
A passing trough will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts through this afternoon. Winds will quickly shift into a Santa Ana pattern late this evening behind the trough, with gusty northeast winds expected in the mountains, passes, and portions of the inland valleys through Sunday afternoon.
As for the freezing precipitation, confidence is very low. However, confidence is lacking for an advisory at this time, based on either the light snow or freezing precipitation potential. Other concern will be the winds behind the cold front. The rest of the day will be mostly sunny, windy and cooler.
506 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Snow showers should gradually end tonight as high pressure builds.
/issued 151 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ An upper level short wave trough will move from the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies early evening to the central Plains by noon Sunday. Energy and moisture associated with the trough will be too far north to merit any precip chances for the forecast area, but the trough will bring a cold front through the area Sunday morning. Pressure falls ahead of the trough and the front tonight should help keep south winds, and thus temperatures, up some tonight while modest post- frontal cold advection will be worth around ten degrees cooling from today's highs.
348 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 /Updated at 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ Short term forecast is on track as high pressure is set to prevail through tomorrow.
533 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion High pressure continues over the area through tonight.
827 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Some reports of light freezing rain and ice this evening. Based on the dry and warm air aloft on the abr sounding, have increased tw aloft temperatures quite a bit to reflect rain, freezing rain, and sleet in the radar echoes lifting northeast in central sd. With the focus of both lows farther south, the higher accumulations are also expected to stay south of the cwa. Upper ridging/northwest flow aloft builds in behind this system on Sunday.
533 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Temperatures finally above freezing over a wide area today with abundant sunshine. Looks like temperatures will be above freezing for the most part, but can't rule out brief freezing drizzle in some of the Ozarks hills in the morning with precip onset.
920 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Cold high pressure will build overhead through Sunday morning, then shift offshore Sunday night.
A weak cold front will move into western areas late in this period shifting winds to the north. Finally a warmer night tonight! Onshore flow has returned bringing warmer, wetter air to the area. Onshore flow will strengthen to more moderate flow Sunday as an positively tilted upper level trough approaches the area and deepens. The trough will continue east through the day sending a weak cold front across the area Sunday night.
Breezy winds will remain through Sunday in the wake of today's cold front passage. A short-lived warming trend is expected for the early part of the week before a series of weather systems will bring a return of cooler conditions and period of gusty winds beginning mid-week.
Warm air advection today has helped push high temperatures above freezing in southern Iowa and into the upper 20s in northern Iowa. Low temperatures tonight will be more moderate, mainly in the upper teens to mid 20s, with a strong push of gulf moisture in the low levels. This low level moisture is aided by some mid-level moisture from the Pacific causing pwts over 0. Ridging and increasing west-northwest flow will encourage warming temperatures from the western CONUS initially following Sunday's system.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The warm weather is back! High pressure over the southeastern US is helping to filter warm temperatures back into the area, with this trend continuing through the short term. Tonight, temperatures will be seasonal with lows in the upper 40s in portions of the northern Ranchlands to mid 50s in the Lower Valley. An upper level trough will move into west Texas Sunday with increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front that will move through the area Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will fall into the lower 50s across the northern Ranchlands to upper 50s in the Valley.
Temperatures have cooled below freezing for many areas this evening, and on their way to the low 20s. Freezing fog will again be possible overnight, especially near bodies of water and areas with a little more surface moisture. Winds will pick up out of the south after sunrise, but most models keep calm winds overnight with clear skies, so freezing fog will be possible through around 8 am or so. Should freezing fog develop, vulnerable surfaces like bridges and overpasses may become slick, even if they were clear from melting earlier today. VFR with overnight freezing fog possible.
749 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Based on the dry and warm air aloft on the abr sounding, have increased tw aloft temperatures quite a bit to reflect rain, freezing rain, and sleet in the radar echoes lifting northeast in central sd. With the focus of both lows farther south, the higher accumulations are also expected to stay south of the cwa. Upper ridging/northwest flow aloft builds in behind this system on Sunday.
848 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will continue to shift off to the east tonight. Sent out a SPS earlier highlighting the dangerous road conditions due to refreezing of slush as the temperatures drop. /issued 304 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to the mid 40s. High pressure cover much of the eastern U. The area of high pressure will continue to move slowly east tonight with dry weather continuing across the region. Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 20s. On Sunday, a cold front will move across the southern Plains reaching western Arkansas by late afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday with highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
915 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 A dry and cold overnight is forecast with building high pressure.
At the surface, most guidance suggests low pressure will move from southwest Iowa into southeast Wisconsin during the day, Ahead of the wave, increasing isentropic ascent and PV advection should get snow going mainly after sunrise Sunday, spreading eastward through the morning. Low-level saturation looks too shallow for freezing drizzle before saturation early Sunday morning, but if low-level moisture ends up deeper than anticipated, there could be a brief period at onset before seeder-feeder/increasing lift saturate the column and change things quickly to snow. One thing we've been looking out for in the guidance is a signal for frontogenesis and banding potential, as this would make the higher end amounts more achievable. Warmer air is on the way as we move into the new work week.
802 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the region tonight, as upper trough passes east of Pennsylvania.
Tonight will be the first night in a long while where no one across the CWA has freezing temps in the overnight forecast. Even warmer conditions expected tomorrow, though we'll see some increasing cloudiness as shallow Gulf moisture continues its return to the area. The cold snap has caused a significant drop in water temperatures near the coast (40s-mid 50s) so would anticipate some sea fog development later in the day and evening Sunday as warmer air overspreads.
827 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 A dry and cold overnight is forecast with building high pressure.
strong high pressure will prevail over the ArkLaMiss tonight. /15/ Sunday night through next Saturday: showers will accompany the cold front Sunday night with rainfall generally not much more than a quarter of an inch.
/issued 304 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to the mid 40s. High pressure cover much of the eastern U. The area of high pressure will continue to move slowly east tonight with dry weather continuing across the region. Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 20s. On Sunday, a cold front will move across the southern Plains reaching western Arkansas by late afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday with highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
304 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to the mid 40s. High pressure cover much of the eastern U. The area of high pressure will continue to move slowly east tonight with dry weather continuing across the region. Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 20s. On Sunday, a cold front will move across the southern Plains reaching western Arkansas by late afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday with highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
But, some southerly surface winds Sunday will help to bring some moisture and warmer air into the region briefly.
442 PM MST Sat Feb 20 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist overnight, though with development and lowering of VFR cigs as an approaching Pacific trough impacts the area. Temperatures trend cooler tomorrow in the wake of the passing cold front and brisk winds are expected to persist into the evening.
651 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure and dry air will remain over the region through Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool temperatures.
Breezy winds will remain through Sunday in the wake of today's cold front passage. A short-lived warming trend is expected for the early part of the week before a series of weather systems will bring a return of cooler conditions and period of gusty winds beginning mid-week. The loss of daytime heating had also allowed much of the earlier cloudiness to dissipate, except near the trough axis over eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave counties where clouds were still hanging on.
This Evening Through Saturday Upper trof over WY will deepen as it moves eastward overnight. Weak wave crossing south central SD ahead of trof will produce some light rain/snow late this afternoon into the early evening. Freezing precipitation not likely as warmer air aloft is dry. Main wave will bring some snow over northeastern WY and Black Hills this evening will be more elevation based with Froude number not favoring upslope snow, with 1-2 inches over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Precip will end as trof moves eastward and exits the area by Sunday morning followed by building ridge. Weak surface trof crossing the area with westerly winds behind it that will help warm temperatures Sunday.
909 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure and dry air will remain over the region through Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool temperatures.
614 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Main forecast challenge/concern is freezing drizzle and icing potential overnight into Sunday morning. Isentropic lift and better low level warm/moist advection tonight ahead of the approaching upper trof is expected to promote some very light precip, mainly drizzle and freezing drizzle. Confidence remains highest for locations to stay below freezing long enough for a Winter Weather Advisory along/north of highway 50, though a period of icing is possible as far south as highway 54 where existing snow cover may allow for temperatures to drop and stay just below freezing as the drizzle starts, before enough warming in the southerly flow develops toward dawn. A brief period of light snow is possible Sunday morning across central Kansas behind the surface cold front if there is enough moistening/lift within the cold advection under the upper trof.
Lift increases ahead of the system this evening/tonight with light precip in the form of light freezing drizzle developing across KS and spreading north into Neb. As the upper low advances, a frontogenetic/deformation band of precip (mainly snow) across western/northern Neb will progress east/southeast overnight and Sunday morning and the light freezing pcpn will transition to snow. Even with though overall amounts are light, even small amounts of freezing drizzle can be impactful with slick conditions. Behind the cold front Sunday morning, northwest wind speeds will ramp up with gusts of 30 to 40 mph which could lead to some areas of blowing snow.
Finally a warmer night tonight! Onshore flow has returned bringing warmer, wetter air to the area. Onshore flow will strengthen to more moderate flow Sunday as an positively tilted upper level trough approaches the area and deepens. The trough will continue east through the day sending a weak cold front across the area Sunday night.
908 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the area through the weekend.
706 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Cold high pressure will build overhead through Sunday morning, then shift offshore Sunday night.
Farther south, forecast soundings suggest more of a bottom-up saturation process with freezing drizzle developing in the 3-6 AM time frame mainly along and south of I-80. Lows tonight will be in the 20s with highs on Sunday in the lower/mid 30s.
621 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the area through the weekend.
Under southwest flow, MBS may however be more apt to experience periodic broken conditions this evening given that the low level flow will not veer from southwest to south over Lake Mi until after midnight. A high pressure ridge will bring one more very chilly night tonight as light south winds and partly to mostly clear skies lead to decent radiational cooling off of widespread snowpack. Southerly winds will then increase on Sunday within the strengthening pressure gradient between the departing ridge of high pressure and low pressure racing out of the central plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. As this system continues east, expect the low pressure center to track into southern lower Michigan by Sunday evening/overnight. Given climbing surface temperatures, except some rain to possibly mix with the snow into the overnight hour as the low crosses over the forecast area.
Cold front between 15-18z for most terminals tomorrow with increased NW winds. An upper trough is beginning to dig southeastward across the western part of the country. The upper trough to the west will move over the central part of the country on Sunday with the base of the upper trough moving over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. High winds from the base of the trough are expected to impact the Guadalupe Mountains so a High Wind Warning is in effect there beginning tonight and continuing into the early morning hours on Sunday. The upper trough will result in a cold front moving into the area during the day on Sunday.
Not expecting as much fog to develop as last night/this morning as temps will be several degrees warmer, keeping relative humidities lower. We will be under ridging aloft during the day Sunday along with return flow out of the south. Even with remaining snowpack, our temperatures will be warmer than they have been since Feb.
Some high-res guidance indicates areas around Dickey county may receive some light snow, but 700mb trough likely too far south to produce much accumulation.
540 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the region tonight, as upper trough passes east of Pennsylvania.
A trough of low pressure will continue to move eastward while a strong ridge of high pressure builds over Northern California.
637 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure will build into the region tonight, as upper trough passes east of Pennsylvania.
Lows will fall into the low to mid 30s. High pressure centered north of the area will provide for clear skies and dry conditions for the next 24 hours. Some patchy frost is possible tonight in the cooler, more sheltered locations.
602 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 Snow, mixed with rain, is expected Sunday night as temperatures warm into the low to mid 30s. This WAA regime will finally allow the arctic cold to begin its retreat with temps tonight falling or steady in the teens, warming into the low-mid 30s tomorrow. Sunday night's weather maker, now entering the Rockies, will eject east as an amplified positively titled upper trough.
As of mid afternoon, the warmest air since mid to late January (sounds weird actually saying that) has made it into the Devils Lake region, where temperatures have crossed into the low 30s. By Sunday afternoon, southwest winds will pick up a little more, which should allow temperatures across the entire area to get into the low to mid 30s. There's a possibility for a system associated with a longwave trough to impact us this weekend, but given that it is so far ahead in time, confidence is low on the system even holding together to produce snowfall in the northern plains. The only TAF expected to see impacts is BJI, where cigs may go down to the lower range of MVFR.
Cold front along with associated wind shift to the NW and N and possible SHRA mainly after 22/00Z. Tonight will be the first night in a long while where no one across the CWA has freezing temps in the overnight forecast. Even warmer conditions expected tomorrow, though we'll see some increasing cloudiness as shallow Gulf moisture continues its return to the area. The cold snap has caused a significant drop in water temperatures near the coast (40s-mid 50s) so would anticipate some sea fog development later in the day and evening Sunday as warmer air overspreads.
652 PM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 High pressure and dry air will remain over the region through Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool temperatures.