Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE TO TYING RECORD HIGHS TODAY. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER CO. LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP A RIBBON OF UPPER 30S FOR LOWS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS. CHANGES START TO COME IN FOR TUESDAY AS THE TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IT COULD BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE HIGH CLOUDS TEMPERING HEATING SOME. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO USHER IN COOLER AIR. BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. WHICH IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
1028 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS TONIGHT.
332 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION FROM THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A SW FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA.
A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER WEST, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/ VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS PLACED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RIDGING PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING REINFORCING THE DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY WILL DAMPEN AND SHIFT OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DECENT INSOLATION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING.
DID EXPAND FOG WORDING FARTHER WEST AND NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND EAST. LOCATION MON HI TEMP MON HI TEMP OBSERVED RECORD 3 PM CST DICKINSON 51 (RECORD) 49 IN 1931 WILLISTON 50 (RECORD) 47 IN 2006 BISMARCK 50 52 IN 1942 MINOT 45 58 IN 1906 JAMESTOWN 41 52 IN 1990 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN MONTANA EXTENDING DOWN TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
838 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK AND BRING A DRYING TREND.
1111 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 CONTINUED VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE PASSING EARLY. /ISSUED 548 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ NARROW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
1131 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NW IOWA BY MORNING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AS WINDS DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE NEARS FROM THE WEST.
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON BACKSIDE OF MAJOR STORM LIFTING UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO PRODUCE RATHER DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE BAJA LOW HAS SIMTULTANEOUSLY BEGUN TO OPEN UP AND HELP ERODE THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY.
942 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD AND TIED FOR OUR WARMEST DAY SINCE THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES. LIFTING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH SOME STRETCHING OF VORTICITY FIELDS AND SINKING MOTIONS UNDER THE RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE RIDGE. THE DAMPENED TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NE UT/NW CO ON WED. A LARGE-SCALE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED SPLITTING FLOW IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 AVIATION A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER.
A ridge of high pressure over the Plains early this morning will shift east into the area today. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves into the region while at the surface continued WAA will be ongoing out ahead of the cold front moving slowly across the Plains.
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND PHASES WITH THE LARGE EAST COAST STORM. CONSIDERED LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK AND BRING A DRYING TREND.
/ISSUED 317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS. AND THEN WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.
A deep upper level trough across the eastern US will amplify tonight along the eastern seaboard, providing the northeast US with several hours of very heavy snowfall Tonight through Wednesday. West central KS has warmed into the lower 70s as downslope warming across the central high plains is advected southeast across western and central KS. As the eastern US trough amplifies, low-level CAA develop from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes States and southward across the MS and OH river valleys. Forecast soundings show the boundary layer only mixing to about 950MB across the eastern half of the CWA, therefore, I kept Highs a bit cooler on Tuesday with mid 50s to to around 60 degrees across northeast and east central KS.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE.
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR S TX THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
1220 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
STOUT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL COLLAPSE BY 12Z WED AS A TROUGH TRACKS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WED AFTN. SO WITH A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE AND STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERSPREADING OUR DOMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SWRN CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS OLD FAST BIAS WITH THESE DEEPER WAVES WHEREAS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF APPEARS MORE CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS TROUGH BY THU NIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER WEST TEXAS.
EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
309 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
1123 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM. Heights aloft will continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level ridge begins to move east toward the region. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the area from the northeast. Readings will be a little cooler to the east (generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.
Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows falling into the lower 30s. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s.
CYCLONIC H50 FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT H24 AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE LARGE ERN CONUS TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW. UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC AS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL TO WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TX.
MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS HAS DROPPED SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 75 /ISSUED 217 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/ CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE EAST TO 50 IN THE WEST.
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (984 MB) IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE GARDEN STATE OF NEW JERSEY. WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER SET OF MILD LOWS.
628 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
927 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EVEN ERODING MANY OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AS THEY TRIED TO PUSH EAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY PUSHED INTO EASTERN WI BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
755 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM A COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
BLOCKING A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BELIEVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS THAT COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH TO REFREEZING ISSUE. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG ISSUES BUT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST. TURN OVER TO NON-FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR A WHILE.
Occasional freezing drizzle at KABI as temperatures stay at or just below 32 degrees through 9 AM Monday. /ISSUED 355 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Extensive cloud cover continues across all of West Central Texas with most locations in the 30s, except along the Interstate 10 corridor, where temperatures have climbed into the lower 40s. Temperatures across much of the Big Country will already be near to just above freezing, and as temperatures slowly drop to near or below freezing, areas of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle will develop by late evening. Some minor icing of bridges, overpasses and exposed surfaces will be possible, and this is covered in a Special Weather Statement. Temperatures should climb back above freezing at all locations by mid to late morning, with a transition to all liquid precipitation.
551 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL STEAM EASTWARD THIS EVENING. AND WHERE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEARING COINCIDE WITH MINOR SNOW COVER.
Clouds should thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA. Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced these will likely be too warm.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
STRATO CU ASSOC WITH 500 MB TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN WITH CLEARING IN ERN ND/NW MN. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT MON NIGHT/TUE. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WITH MOISTURE GETTING FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND ITS PASSAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH IA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN.
833 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY SEPARATES MILD AIR (60S & 70S) IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM MUCH COOLER AIR (LOW 50S) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS WEAKENED AND PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SOUTH OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THIS WARMER AIR ADVECTS OVER COOLER AREA WATERS. THE LOWERED CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
BEFORE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER DAYBREAK BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY.
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.
OHX BASE VELOCITY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A WAVERLY TO OAK GROVE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PLACES. SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ICY ROAD ISSUES EXCEPT ON PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SECONDARY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
The mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across the CWA for the rest of today. High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time. Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to the upper teens across the U. Despite tomorrow's above freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a decent bet.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN.
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL AID IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
Otherwise, quiet weather is expected for the rest of the night as a large area of high pressure builds in from the northwest. The high will help provide some clearing tonight as well as cooler conditions than seen last night.
IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND- DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATER ON. MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
741 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
207 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM A COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next several hours and most terminals can expect LIFR while FST and PEQ (being on the western edge of the low level moisture) may hold at IFR. Temperatures are expected to hold above freezing overnight, therefore FZFG is not a concern. Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into the lower 70s. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight with little if any accumulation expected. So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to go on the low end of temperature guidance.