Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL HOLD INLAND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND ALSO RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES.
628 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING. HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA MONDAY AND STALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH LOWER 80S COMMON INTO CENTRAL MN.
SOME COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
746 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 757 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ 00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED IN SERN KY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO NRN AL AND MS.
1040 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
906 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING LEADING TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND FAIR WX. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S NEAR THE BAY WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HIGHER AND IN THE IMMEDIATE METRO AREAS.
EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS EVENING, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW JUST EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WEAK RETURN FLOW ALREADY UNDERWAY.
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
733 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
734 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MID WEEK. AND SOME TROFING AND RAINS TO THE WRN U.
MUCH COOLER TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS HAVE ADVECTED DRIER AIR INTO SE GA/NE FL TODAY.
725 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST-NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. A MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY TO DRIFT EWD. NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ADVECTED A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY MID AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER AREAS WEST OF I-95. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT LEAVING IN ITS WAKE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
609 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 Ridge axis shifting east across the state early this afternoon. With southerly winds setting up on the back side of the ridge, milder conditions are expected tonight. A pleasant stretch of late summer weather expected through mid week across IL as upper level high pressure ridge builds across the eastern U.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 5 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH COOLER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT TRACKS. HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD BE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LLM TEMPS ARE COOLER ON MOST MODELS.
00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED IN SERN KY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO NRN AL AND MS. 77 /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TO THE LOW-MID 70S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS.
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 QUIET EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WHILE THE CHILLY AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST IS STARTING TO MODIFY. NOTHING UPSTREAM EXCEPT A THIN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT BAND OF HIGHER LEVEL WAA CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ONTARIO. AS NOT ONLY DOES THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME WARM AND BECOME UNFAVORABLE. TO THE TO LOWER HALF OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NW LOWER COAST AND MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER WITH STRONGER WINDS COMING OFF THE WARMER WATERS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOW 40S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THOUGH GENERALLY MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
/ISSUED 230 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ NO WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. DESPITE THESE COOLER LOWS.
OF THE GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL TODAY AND WITH EVEN WARMER 850 MB TEMPS TOMORROW (SIMILAR BUT STRONGER SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW) DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A STRONG LLJ LATE TONIGHT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AM THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING. SW MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TUES AS A FAIRLY STOUT/DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND HUMID EACH SUBSEQUENT WORK WEEK DAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP DAYS MAINLY DRY. 47 A NICE AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY FOR THE REGION WITH 3 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE REGION LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS FEATURE WAS PROMOTING GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS /HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S/. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFF MEXICO PUSHES INTO COASTAL MEXICO MONDAY.
BUT AS A COLD FRONT FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 327 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY WITH PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS THERE. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS QUICKLY LIFTING OUT SO THE PUSH FOR THE FRONT ENDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A QUICK RETURN OF EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY.
755 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS ORIENTED N-S. RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD ALLOWS FOR COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS CREATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RECORD- LOW PWATS (AROUND 0.
Dewpoints this afternoon also mixed down to the lower end of previous model forecasts, and the 00Z Tallahassee sounding had a record low precipitable water value for so early in the season (beginning June 1). Considering these factors, we tweaked the forecast to more closely match the lower end of model guidance, which is represented by a variety of MOS. Although it is more common in the winter months on calm, cold nights, we may see temperatures trend several degrees warmer in the city of Tallahassee than outlying areas (including the airport).
The low level jet will also intensify overnight with 50-60 kts expected around 1500 feet AGL. Temperatures on Monday will also be a few degrees warmer with deep mixing and some warm advection, ranging from the middle 80s east to near 90 in central KS.
949 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A DRY AND WARMER WEEK AHEAD. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE ON MONDAY AS TROUGH HEADS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1025 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AND WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE OVERNIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
1230 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AND WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE OVERNIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A BROADENING THERMAL TROUGH CREATED A MICROCIRCULATION WHICH STRENGTHENED AND SHIFTED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MERGE WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEK ALLOWING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NEIGHBORING STATES.
CAVOK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EASTERN STATES WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE APPALACIANS WILL PROVIDE CAVOK THRU THE TAF PERIOD AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AS DRY AIR HOLDS FROM THE NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND THE LOWER 80S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER SE TX AND SRN LA WILL PRODUCE EAST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SE.
1042 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE UPPER TROF AXIS ORIENTED N-S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO ILLUSTRATES THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATING ACROSS THE FA AS WELL AS WHERE THE UPPER TROF AXIS LIES. TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD ALLOWS FOR COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS CREATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RECORD- LOW PWATS (AROUND 0.
955 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP IN THE LOW AND MID 40S. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOW 40S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THOUGH GENERALLY MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
930 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY. AND SOME TROFING AND RAINS TO THE WRN U.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSITION FROM THIS TROUGH TO MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTHERLY WIND RESPONSE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 TOWARDS DAWN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WILL GO COLDEST IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
739 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A DRY AND WARMER WEEK AHEAD. AS TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGS INTO EASTERN PA. STILL ARE DEALING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITED TROUGH. HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE ON MONDAY AS TROUGH HEADS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
625 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT TRACKS. HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD BE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LLM TEMPS ARE COOLER ON MOST MODELS.
724 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS NEAR THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
618 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TO THE LOW-MID 70S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS.
Moisture will gradually return to the area and southerly winds will result in warmer low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.
715 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. TRANQUIL WX TO START AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLD ACRS THE LAKES THROUGH MID PD AHD OF VIGOROUS SW TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN TURNING MUCH WARMER W/WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS MANIFESTING BY TUE AND CONTG THROUGH FRI.
647 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015 WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINING WITH COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TO PRODUCE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WORKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS MIXED OUT WITH WINDS 20 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TEENS AS OF 2 PM. WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY DUE TO RELATED DECREASING HEIGHTS AS RIDGE IS WEAKENED. WE EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AS TROUGH DROPS TO THE WEST COAST.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND MAY KEEP IT A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR MAKING A QUICK RETURN.
804 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 QUITE THE DAY FOR WATERSPOUTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LEAD TO EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE. /ISSUED 327 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY WITH PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS THERE. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS QUICKLY LIFTING OUT SO THE PUSH FOR THE FRONT ENDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A QUICK RETURN OF EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY.
957 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING. HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA MONDAY AND STALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH LOWER 80S COMMON INTO CENTRAL MN.
THESE WILL COME INTO PHASE OVER CA LATE TOMORROW AND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA ON TUE AS THIS PHASED WAVE EJECTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A STRONGER AND COLDER WAVE IS STILL FORECAST FOR WED AND A FAIRLY GOOD BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO WHITEN UP THE PEAKS.
946 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AND WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE OVERNIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
303 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AS AIRMASS IS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT COOLING THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS.
339 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS PACIFIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO REPEAT FOR FRIDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES GETTING A BOOST FROM SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR FOR TONIGHT COULD STILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT COOLING AND MINS NEAR FREEZING OVER VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
AND THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TIMING. WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE WARM FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW AT THE START AND IT MAY END AS SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX IN THE LOWEST 925MB LATER TONIGHT AND WE HAVE INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WEST. AND WILL USE CONSSHORT HOURLIES TO CONSTRUCT MIN T GRID WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE FAR WEST TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST. CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAT REMAIN MUCH COOLER TOMORROW AS THE DAY STARTS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
leaned toward warmer guidance for temperatures tonight with lows near 30 for most areas.
518 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PURSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HELP PROVIDE THE RIDGES AND THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION. DECENT SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND BRIEF HOURS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE RIDGES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE RIDGES UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
610 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
With high pressure moving through the region overnight, winds will slack off and temperatures will fall into the 20s for Friday morning. A weak cold front will move through the region Friday night.
Weak high pressure will move across the region through Friday. Dry weather, with slightly cooler temperatures on tap for Friday.
546 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 LITTLE FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH RIDGE APPROACHING WILL SEE WAA ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MELTING SNOW. RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
AND WILL USE CONSSHORT HOURLIES TO CONSTRUCT MIN T GRID WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE FAR WEST TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST. CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAT REMAIN MUCH COOLER TOMORROW AS THE DAY STARTS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS WE'RE STILL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
AN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO FORCE A DRY AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION WHILE THE SOUTHERN JET PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE SE STATES. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
527 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF AREA. /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST.
1014 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE TONIGHT.