Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND THEN WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL GOVERN. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold Canadian high centered from eastern KS to northern TX at 08z will dominate our weather today as it presses southeast into the lower Ohio Valley by evening.
MODELS BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
227 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015 RADAR HAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE DIVIDE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
130 PM PST MON FEB 2 2015 DRY AND MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ALL WEEK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE COAST.
TEMPS WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
Could bring some patchy ground fog near river valleys as winds lighten and the upper ridge moves through, but not anticipating a strong enough reduction in visibility to put in the public forecast at this time.
WHAT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THE AREA WILL SEE TODAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED OR BECOME A FILTERED VARIETY AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA AT 3 AM. WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WERE GENERATING ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER. WILL ADD A SMALL MENTION OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND LFQ OF AN UPPER JET LET. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
153 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
356 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO BY TUE MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW. DESPITE THE HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN COOLER.
1011 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015 DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE VERY SLOWLY. ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW.
60 inches have been seen over the higher terrain of Shasta county and 0. Mostly cloudy skies across interior NorCal early this morning as moisture continues to move up from the southwest and over the broad ridge along the west coast. Ridge of high pressure flattens today and Tuesday as several disturbances move by to the north.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE EWD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WRN CONUS. RIDGING SEEMS TO BE QUITE ROBUST. WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING UP.
1226 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.
WITH ANOTHER FREEZE IN COOLER VALLEY AREAS AS WELL AS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO ATHENS. 10 MPH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THICKER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRANSITING ACROSS COASTAL TX AND THOSE AREAS WILL BARELY REACH 50.
HOWEVER HEDGED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SPECTRUM /NOT COUNTING THE GEM WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVELY COLD/ GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER.
High pressure over the Southern and Central Plains will shift over the region and Deep South tonight. Southerly winds on the back side of the high should help our temperatures moderate back to near normal levels for Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies. We should stay more mix-y with those winds Tuesday night, so lows likely will fall only to around or just below the freezing level.
CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE THIS MORNING WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SE TONIGHT. BUT FROST SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS ENOUGH WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO KEEP THE LOWER LAYER MIXED. DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
VERY DRY AND COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST, GIVING WAY TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER KANSAS DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS THE COLD ANTICYCLONE WILL NOT BE INFLUENCING THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IS RELEGATED TO A RANGE OF THE LOW TO UPPER 20S HOWEVER, AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND ELKHART WHERE IT CAN BE TYPICALLY WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS REPORTED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS BEFORE MORNING. LEE TROF SHOULD BRING REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES AND THE TYPICAL FOGGY LOW SPOTS. MAV/LAMP MOS IN PARTICULAR IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME FREEZING FOG.
12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF BAJA. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO THROW HIGH CLOUDS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEE SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY.
1058 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015 CANADIAN SFC RIDGING HAS SETTLED S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE SHOULD NOTE IN INCREASE IN THE THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WELL AHEAD OF THE SRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. AND STRONG SFC RIDGING JUST TO THE S. 16Z TEMPS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO APPROACH/EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
CSV WILL HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT. AND AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF FENTRESS COUNTY. RADAR SHOWS MORE SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM INTO KY WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. AND UP TO 1 INCH FOR THE HIGHEST SPOTS. BUT THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NW ONTARIO TO NW MINNESOTA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY PROMOTE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF.
WIND SHIFT/TROUGH/ NOW NEAR BAUDETTE-CROOKSTON-VALLEY CITY LINE. WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND SYSTEM BUT MORE SO CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY BEHIND TROUGH RATHER THAN FALL.
1138 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2015 Early this morning radar and surface observations show some lingering light snow (flurries really) persisting across central Missouri as the deformation zone following the upper level trough swings through.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 349 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WARM FRONT/WARMER AIR HAS PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AND A WARMER START. WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER LOWS THAN LAST NIGHT. SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY AND GOOD DOWNSLOPE WINDS/MIXING EXPECTED.
Tuesday morning lows will generally be in the lower to mid 30s, with the coldest readings in low lying river valleys.
346 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA WITH A MEAGER LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TURNING SURFACE WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR TUES NIGHT WITH A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND WE WERE ABLE TO SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MRNG AND WITH GOOD CAA EXPECT A RA/SN MIX MAINLY AT KHSV UNTIL ARND 15Z.
It should yield to incoming High pressure at the surface overnight. These temps may bottom out around 3 am, then hold nearly steady as the High shifts east and a light southerly return flow starts to develop. Meanwhile a broad scale trof will start to take shape. It will take another day to drive a developing cold front into/across the area. The cold front makes passage Wed night.
1042 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH SOME SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
140 PM PST MON FEB 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
413 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 CURRENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE VISIBLE CHANNEL ANIMATIONS SHOW A RATHER DISORGANIZED ARRAY OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS PRECEDING A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND FRESHENING NORTH BREEZES DEVELOPING WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS BLEEDING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 1028 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/ YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL INTO THE GULF AND STRETCHED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN MEXICO AS OF 10 AM. ATMOS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THRU THE DAY AND TUE NT AS UPGLIDE OVER THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS COASTAL TROF WILL SET UP WELL OFFSHORE AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULDN'T BE A THREAT INLAND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY WED AFTN AS UPPER TROF PASSES THRU AND MERGES INTO THE MEAN ERN TROF. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS EAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TUES/WEDS OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE UP- PER TX COASTLINE WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING.
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS WORKING FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH/NORTHEAST BY EVENING. AND HAVE SHADED A BIT TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE.
736 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC WILL KEEP BENIGN CONDITIONS LOCKED IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REDUCED. A 591 DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
1017 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVER ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BUT THE LOWEST 3KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS COULD PULL BACK TO THE WEST TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
1148 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TX DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TX DURING THIS TAF CYCLE.
1213 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS MAINE.
713 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUSTAIN VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A BKN DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ONLY STRENGTHENS FURTHER WITH MODEST WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE. ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A FEW MODELS HOWEVER TRY TO SPIN UP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA. IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
THESE TWO SITES MAY ALSO SEE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER MAY DRIFT/EXPAND THAT FAR NW. THE H500 TROUGH REMAINS STOUT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT E/NE. AND REALLY CANNOT DENY IT GIVEN THE NICE ISENTROPIC RESPONSE AT 295 AND 300K ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH. STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THERE APPEARED TO BE ANOTHER BOUNDARY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH CORRESPONDED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL.
919 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS MAINE.
Low pressure currently over south Texas will begin to lift northeastward tonight, reaching the Arkansas/Louisiana border by 12z Tue. Deep trof over the central US will continue to be the trigger for a couple of waves that will lift out of the southern Miss valley and lift into the OH valley over the next 7 days.
912 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
922 PM PDT Mon Mar 9 2015 Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday under strong high pressure.
636 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 158 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROF MOVING SLOWLY THRU WRN/SRN TX WITH SWLY FLOW STREAMING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR MS VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OF OUR AREA BY MORNING WHICH MAY KEEP THE MAJORITY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO OUR N AND W ON TUESDAY.
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CAN NOT FULLY RULE OUT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THAT STILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED BUT DID REMOVE THUNDER WORDING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BENEFICIAL RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IS NEARING VAL VERDE COUNTY. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW CENTER IN THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE UNDERNEATH THE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER AS WELL.
/ISSUED 240 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ AN H5 TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE BIG BEND. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING MORE ACTIVITY TO NORTHEASTERN MEX THAN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY COME INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA TUESDAY.
1230 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 655 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 330 PM CDT A WARM FRONT STATIONED OVER CENTRAL IL WILL CREEP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS NORTHWARD TO AROUND A DEKALB TO CHICAGO LINE WHICH WILL HELP ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK. EXPECTING STRATUS WITH THE WARM FRONT AS WELL. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 50S DUE TO A RIDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. MRC 330 PM CDT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE SHIELD OF RAIN THAT KEEPS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL DROP INTO THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
826 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
1007 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TEXAS COASTAL TROUGH STILL IN PLACE. AS A BROAD TROUGH ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST EXTENDS FROM MISSOURI TO MEXICO.
AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ONLY STRENGTHENS FURTHER WITH MODEST WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE. ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A FEW MODELS HOWEVER TRY TO SPIN UP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA. IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE REGION WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 69 58 71 / 100 80 70 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 69 54 66 / 100 70 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 66 55 65 / 100 80 70 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 67 52 64 / 90 70 70 80.
1026 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
712 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. 73 /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS HELPED KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY PROVIDING THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
834 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A BKN DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ONLY STRENGTHENS FURTHER WITH MODEST WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE. ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A FEW MODELS HOWEVER TRY TO SPIN UP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA. IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
822 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
IN RESPONSE TO WARM FRONT MOVG NWD AS UPPER TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO EJECT AND MOVE ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND.
1114 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
527 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN US. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH WARMER THAN THE MID 50S LOCALLY IF THE GFS/NAM VERIFY WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -2 DEG C. WARMEST DAY WILL BE WED WITH DOWNSLOPING AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER NOW THAN EXPECTED. BUT HAVE LEFT A CHANCE JUST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WEAK TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
724 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
High pressure centered west of Montana will keep the air mass dry and stable.
635 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TX DURING THIS TAF CYCLE.
631 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015 Low pressure currently over south Texas will begin to lift northeastward tonight, reaching the Arkansas/Louisiana border by 12z Tue. Deep trof over the central US will continue to be the trigger for a couple of waves that will lift out of the southern Miss valley and lift into the OH valley over the next 7 days.
1257 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE MOISTURE IS NOW CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS.
1242 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.