Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front moves slowly south, losing steam Monday and likely to pull up stationary north of Deep South Teas. A pre- frontal trough though may move into the coastal waters late tonight and Monday and could spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
Scattered showers are expected this afternoon through tonight as a cold front approaches. Discussion: In the upper levels, a closed low over the Midwest will drift eastward slowly. At the surface, low pressure near Indiana will bring a cold front through the region early Monday. Activity may be more numerous overnight as the cold front approaches. Stayed on the warm side of guidance for the highs today in case the clouds thin out this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s are forecast in the Tennessee Valley. Drier air arrives behind a cold front as it moves eastward across the area on Monday.
Temperatures early this morning are once again hovering around the freezing mark in valleys along the spine of the Continental Divide. Isolated pockets of temps in the mid to upper 30s also exist across other parts of western Montana and higher valleys of central Idaho, though the majority are hovering in the low 50s to low 40s. With little to no mixing anticipated, we'll have to see how smoke impacts the high temperature forecast today and Monday as it increases.
Drier and more stable air will overspread the region tonight as high pressure settles over the high plains of western Kansas. We could see a record low at KRSL as temperatures fall into the lower 40s. Hot and mostly dry weather will prevail through the period as the mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the area and into the Mississippi Valley area late in the week. Patiently waiting on the low clouds and precipitation to move east of of the forecast area so that we can bring all TAF sites to SKC and light winds. The low clouds and precip will linger a bit longer at CNU, likely exiting that region towards sunrise.
The high clouds will increase across the region Sunday afternoon.
As mentioned previously, an approaching upper trough will cut off just to the southwest of the CWA. The low should become fairly stacked and hence not particularly baroclinic. This in turn could produce significant pivoting/folding of the mid level thermal gradient north/northeast of the low, leading to substantial frontogenesis Sunday night. Sharp upper ridging will preclude rain chances for the latter half of the work week with a gradual rebound in temperatures towards the upper 70s.
1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) A 500mb trough axis extending from a closed low over Louisiana into the southwest Gulf of Mexico with a mid-level ridge over western Texas into northern Mexico this afternoon. A mid-level short wave will swing over the Lone Star State Sunday into Sunday night with the associated weak cold front approaching the region early Monday morning.
A cold front will move through the region late Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
An area of low pressure approaches for the end of the week increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms.
1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (The rest of tonight) Prefrontal convection continues to gradually wane while cold front is making steady progress southeastward. Update increased cloud cover overnight and incorporated observed cold frontal position.
1031 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Dry and stable air will continue to filter into the area tonight into Sunday as an upper level low pressure drifts southeast. Sunday night into Monday will see a ridge of high pressure at the surface drift east, so there should be light winds and clear skies through the night, leading to another cool start to Monday morning.
(Today through Monday) /Frontal passage on Monday to bring an end to shower and storm chances by day's end/ We'll have a trough axis draped across the region today, related to a degrading upper low/trough just to our west and a larger upper trough approaching the Midwest. Low-level moisture will be plentiful with dew points in the lower 70s though, as seen on water vapor imagery, swaths of drier air aloft will advect from the southwest. High pressure will gradually build from the north, allowing fair weather to take hold behind the front.
Cloud-free skies and light winds this evening should continue overnight as high pressure moves in from the west. upper level ridging will build back in and over the Northern Rockies through the day on Sunday, brining a return of hot, dry, and gusty conditions to all of Southwest through North Central Montana. By Monday the upper level ridge will begin to shift east as an upper level trough over the Eastern Pacific begins to move over the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures on Monday will remain above normal; however, will be cooler in the mid-70s to mid-80s.
The Northern Plains sit under northerly flow aloft early this morning, with a downstream trough near the Upper Mississippi River Valley and upstream ridging building over the Northern Rockies. Benign weather will persist through the short term period, with rising heights and a weak surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the Lower Missouri River Valley and low pressure over Saskatchewan. Another night of strong radiational cooling lies ahead, but warmer boundary layer temperatures should keep frost out of the forecast. The atmosphere will be too dry for any precipitation, and the trough will make little dent in the mean ridge building to the west. The 75th percentile of NBM guidance was once again used for the high temperature forecast as the westerly boundary layer flow should promote strong mixing.
628 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday) Our eyes are back to the northwest waiting for the much anticipated cold front to move through our area today. More showers and storms will develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Afternoon mlCAPE values will be around 1000 J/kg, but shear will be on the low side with effective bulk shear around 15-20 kts this afternoon. Showers will shut off from west to east after 00z tonight with cooler and drier air filtering into the area from the northwest.
(The rest of today and tonight) The back edge of the dense low cloudiness behind last night's cold front is slowly making southward progress across the area, with eastern Oklahoma likely to see faster clearing than points adjacent in western Arkansas. With the drier air, clearing skies and light to near calm winds expected with surface ridging overhead, it will be a chilly start to the work week Monday morning. The typical cooler valley locations are likely to drop into the 40s, with 50s elsewhere.
547 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and tonight) With the cold front through northern Texas, northerly winds and cold air advection at the surface will continue through Sunday. Morning and nighttime lows will range from the low 50s across northern Oklahoma to the low 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
623 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Relatively benign conditions today through Monday as high pressure south of our area continues to move away and weaken. Winds around the high will aid in mixing today, and become more universally southerly by Monday with a slight uptick in both speeds and temperatures. Skies expected to remain clear, however the HRRR starts bringing elevated smoke overtop of the ridge aloft during the afternoon Monday.
558 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures extend from the upper plain states south into Oklahoma this morning. This is the first true cold front as current temps are in the 40s in the Dakota's with 50s across Kansas into Oklahoma. The cold front is approaching northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana this am.
428 AM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Mean upper ridging will persist through Wed, with a transition to semi-active SW flow the remainder of the week. The only weather feature to speak of the next couple days is a backdoor cool front that will slide into the region Monday night and support slightly cooler conds Tues (mainly across the northern half) before another round of WAA Wed. Semi-active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture (and the remnants of Kay) will support rain chances once again the later half of the week as a series of impulses cross the region, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps.
06Z surface data has the cold front running from northern Lake Huron into northwest Arkansas. During the afternoon the upper low will begin moving into the area and help initiate a new round of rain that will increase in areal coverage through sunset. Tonight the upper low will pivot across the area. During the pivoting of the upper low, rainfall rates are expected to increase and cause heavy rainfall over roughly a 6 to 9 hour time frame. Details: Monday and Monday night: Stacked upper low will continue to slowly push eastward into northern Indiana by late in the day. However, if the low is slower than currently depicted then some of these showers could linger into Monday evening, mainly east of the Mississippi River.
/NEW/ Update: Our welcomed cold front is well south of I-20 and headed for Central Texas early this morning. Post-frontal stratus will be on the increase over the next few hours, but these clouds should then dissipate by the early part of the afternoon as large scale subsidence strengthens on the heels of a departing upper trough. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ The latest satellite imagery indicates an upper trough making its way east through the Plains with a ridge still situated over the Desert Southwest. The motion of the trough will aid in the southward push of a cold front, which was near a line from Sherman to Graham at midnight. The primary effect will be the introduction of a drier and slightly cooler airmass, making for relatively pleasant weather for the start of the week.
Temperatures return to near normal over the next few days as cloud cover and a cooler airmass moves across the region. Coastal areas will also see more marine influence with cooler afternoon temperatures and areas of morning low clouds and patchy fog.
Otherwise it will be dry with warmer temperatures.
609 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front that brought cooler temperatures and isolated thunderstorms has moved to the south of the CWA as of about 12 am this morning. Low clouds should begin to decrease in coverage by early afternoon as some drier air advects into the region from the north as the upper trough to our north shifts east.
1029 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Showers and some thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front that will move through the region.
High pressure over the Atlantic will begin to nudge its way into the local area today, leading to decreased steering flow for the area this afternoon. The primary inhibitor today, should there end up being one, will be increased subsidence from the aforementioned high pressure. Highs this afternoon in the low to mid 90s, although humid conditions will lead to heat indices up to 102 to 107 prior to the onset of convection. If heading to the beach, be mindful of the high risk of rip currents.
231 AM PDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay will continue to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
643 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday night) 08z WV satellite shows an upper trough digging over MN/IA/MO and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. Disturbance in this flow aloft and low level saturation in the wake of our recent cold front have combined to generate some light showers with a couple rumbles of thunder overnight. Monday, the transient upper ridge that had been progged to slide overhead has trended weaker over the last few model runs.
Another feature that will help boost PoPs is a cold front nearing from the west. This boundary extending SW from low pressure over southern Lake Michigan was sweeping over SE Missouri, to SW Arkansas to south- central Texas.
Cooler temperatures will continue through midweek with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. As the remnant low weakens it will start to transition more into a mid-level trough, which will start to move towards the coast tonight. While the trough will remain situated to our west until later tonight, we will continue to see a moist, southerly flow across the state. As the low starts to become entrained into the mean flow, we will see some additional lift which should translate into more widespread showers/storms as we head into the latter part of the evening and into the overnight period. Radar may be active through the overnight hours into early Monday as the trough continues to push to the east with storm chances increasing through the day.
620 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Clear sky and light winds continue with high pressure across the region. A bit of fog also detected on satellite imagery around the Minnesota lakes, but seems really patchy and confined to warmer bodies of water so impacts minimal. The region will be influenced by upper level ridging with a departing upper level low to the southeast and storm track well north. Monday will be slightly warmer compared to Sunday as the region will be in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front.
620 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and Tonight) Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region behind a southeastward advancing cold front. With the drier air, clearing skies and light to near calm winds expected with surface ridging overhead, it will be a chilly start to the work week Monday morning. The typical cooler valley locations are likely to drop into the 40s, with 50s elsewhere.
This will be one of our chilliest mornings in quite a while as temperatures end up in the low to mid 40s outside of the Twin Cities metro. Another fantastic fall day is expected today, although high cloud cover will likely increase this afternoon as a cut-off low develops to our southeast over the mid-Mississippi valley. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday and through midweek as the cut-off low moves east of the region and upper level ridging builds into the central CONUS.
(Today and tonight) With the cold front through northern Texas, northerly winds and cold air advection at the surface will continue through Sunday. Morning and nighttime lows will range from the low 50s across northern Oklahoma to the low 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
557 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday) Early morning regional radar imagery depicts our well-advertised cold front racing south over North Texas, and approaching the I-20 corridor. Water Vapor imagery shows a deepening trough over southern Minnesota, which will pick up the cut-off low that's been lingering over Louisiana the past several days, essentially opening the door for this early season cold front. Locations over the Hill Country may dip into the lower to middle 60s Monday morning, but afternoon temperatures will remain seasonal, if not warmer than normal, in the upper 80s to lower and middle 90s.
Upper level ridge with axis extending north into WA/BC this morning will shift east into the Northern Rockies and MT today, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and continued very low humidity this afternoon. Weak high pressure slides SE across AB/SK tonight through Monday while the upper level ridge gradually collapses and shifts east across MT Monday.
Concerns for patchy frost early this morning with current temperatures already in the lower 40s in some areas of the Sandhills. For today, the upper trough and closed low will move into the Great Lakes and Midwest as upper ridging as weak warm air advection kicks in across western Nebraska. The upper ridge influence with warm air advection will push afternoon highs to the upper 80s to around 90 across the west and near 85 in the east. In this area, fire weather concerns will be due to the low humidity as surface winds will be light as southwest winds become northwest.
555 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday) A cold front is noted across North Texas this morning, and this front will continue to push southward today. Ahead of the front a weak trough will bring an initial wind shift this morning or early afternoon, but at weak levels. Though still warm, Monday dewpoints should fall into the lower 60s inland - an improvement from recent days (weeks). High temperatures look very near normal both today and tomorrow with highs generally in the lower 90s, but closer to mid 90s west. Lows tonight though could drop into the 60s for a few inland locations while the rest of the area is in the lower 70s.
401 AM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 High pressure will dominate the forecast today and tomorrow. The ridge will continue to build this morning. This will help to push the dense, cooler air out, and resultant highs this afternoon will reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the basins. Monday, the ridge continue to intensify, increasing 700mb temps to +12 to +14C. Otherwise, the ridging will keep clear skies and light winds (<15 mph) over the region through Monday afternoon.
642 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday) /Frontal passage on Monday to bring an end to shower and storm chances by day's end/ We'll have a trough axis draped across the region today, related to a degrading upper low/trough just to our west and a larger upper trough approaching the Midwest. Low-level moisture will be plentiful with dew points in the lower 70s though, as seen on water vapor imagery, swaths of drier air aloft will advect from the southwest. High pressure will gradually build from the north, allowing fair weather to take hold behind the front.
(Today through Monday) A cold front is noted across North Texas this morning, and this front will continue to push southward today. Ahead of the front a weak trough will bring an initial wind shift this morning or early afternoon, but at weak levels. Though still warm, Monday dewpoints should fall into the lower 60s inland - an improvement from recent days (weeks). High temperatures look very near normal both today and tomorrow with highs generally in the lower 90s, but closer to mid 90s west. Lows tonight though could drop into the 60s for a few inland locations while the rest of the area is in the lower 70s.
The mid to upper-level trough over the west-central Gulf of Mexico continues to leak PV to the northeast. A northern-stream trough sliding into the Mississippi River Valley will finish off the Gulf trough over the next 24-hours. The KBYX radar is echo free, a stark change from the overnight storms which blasted through the Lower Keys. Other than the PoP change, the forecast is on track and calls for highs in the lower 90s and gentle east to southeast breezes.
(Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures extend from the upper plain states south into Oklahoma this morning. This is the first true cold front as current temps are in the 40s in the Dakota's with 50s across Kansas into Oklahoma. The cold front is approaching northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana this am.
511 AM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will spread east over the next few days bringing warmer temperatures to the region. This will be short lived as a Pacific low moves onshore and suppresses the ridge.
213 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Persistent southwest flow will continue aloft with a trough extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico.
(This evening through Monday) West Texas will remain in northwest flow aloft through Monday as the system which brought our cold front moves into the eastern Great Lakes region and ridging persists along the spine of the Rockies.
(This evening through Monday) Tranquil weather will prevail across West Central Texas the next 24 hours, with warmer temperatures beginning tomorrow. Some mid and high level clouds will affect mainly the Big Country overnight, otherwise skies will be clear to partly cloudy, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front that brought cooler temperatures and isolated thunderstorms has moved to the south of the CWA as of about 12 am this morning. Low clouds should begin to decrease in coverage by early afternoon as some drier air advects into the region from the north as the upper trough to our north shifts east.
Relatively benign conditions today through Monday as high pressure south of our area continues to move away and weaken. Winds around the high will aid in mixing today, and become more universally southerly by Monday with a slight uptick in both speeds and temperatures. Skies expected to remain clear, however the HRRR starts bringing elevated smoke overtop of the ridge aloft during the afternoon Monday.
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay will continue to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The pattern then becomes drier and progressively warmer from mid-to-late week. Afternoon GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery depicts a closed low positioned over the Quad Cities with the dry conveyor belt spreading across central and eastern Illinois. From a climatology focus, this mid-latitude cyclone is a bit unusual. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 50s, only about 5-8 degrees cooler than what's considered normal for this time of year. The overall effect will be more noticeable Monday afternoon as temperatures only warm into the mid 60s, a good 15 degF cooler than normal.
230 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Persistent southwest flow will continue aloft with a trough extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico.
The cold front just about bifurcates the FA at 2 PM, but there is some hedge to its exact location. The draw-down in dew points has commenced behind the cold front, across the northwest third of the FA. Tmrw still looks like a pleasantly cooler day with lower relative humidity. New guidance suggests it will be a tad warmer than previous modelled data showed, about a category higher with generally 75-80F readings across the area. With low pressure centered in northern Indiana, and high pressure ridging across the Tennessee Valley, it's going to be quite breezy, with 15-25 mph/gusts in the afternoon.
254 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 The axis of a mid to upper level ridge will move from the Nevada/Idaho area towards western Colorado tonight and into Monday. There is QG descent associated with ridge with very dry air within it. Warmer 700 mb temperatures will move over our forecast area as highs will warm around 10 degrees above today's highs. The highs across the plains will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with Denver reaching 88. Despite this, fire weather conditions will be on the lower side due to relatively light winds.
Despite the clouds and rain chances, high temperatures so far have warmed into the lower 80s in many spots, with SW-W winds of 5-10 mph. A cold front extending from northern Illinois, to west of Memphis and far NW Lousiana continued heading eastward.
For Monday, showers and storms return as a low pressure circulation centered over the Pacific Northwest sends a trough into the picture. This looks to enhance storm production as the trough provides a shear component that will allow storms to become more organized than today's round of precipitation. Monday night some Sierra communities such as Martis Valley may see freezing temperatures, signaling an oncoming transition into fall weather patterns.
203 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Showers and some thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front that will move through the region.
433 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper from west to east this evening as a cold front tracks across the area. Additional scattered showers are expected on Monday as much cooler air filters into the region.
(This evening through Monday) Pleasant, early Autumn-like weather is ongoing across the Southern Plains in the wake of yesterday's cold front. The lowest temperatures are expected across north central Oklahoma (in closest proximity to the ridge). Temperatures across the west/southwest may quickly cool-down after sunset and the become steady-state later tonight as winds increase from the south as the ridge moves to the east.