Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
133 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A slow moving cold front will continue to move through the region overnight. A cold front is situated across southeastern portions of the forecast area. An H5 trough will remain positioned over the Ohio Valley Thursday and Thursday night, which will offer seasonably cooler and drier air.
1122 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Light northeasterly flow will prevail until a cold front slips through the area overnight and early Thursday. Cool temperatures overnight for early September (upper 50s-mid 60s) then warming back up into the lower to mid 90s Thursday and then back down into the 60s Thursday night.
with highs in the low 80s to low 90s. High pressure will remain over the region for tonight. Temps on Fri will be a bit warmer. Lows Fri night will be slightly warmer than Thu night.
251 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Looking at GOES-16 water vapor, there is an area of mid to upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners Region. Downstream is an area of low pressure sitting over the Hudson Bay area with an associated positively tilted trough extending into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. With the high pressure sitting over the Four Corners flow aloft is mostly out of the north over the FA. The high is positioned so that the flow will be coming from northern CA where wildfires remain ongoing. With the high building over the area more tomorrow highs are looking to be in the upper 90s to lower triple digits for Friday.
A weak ridge extending across the area has kept breezes light overnight, and marine observation platforms are currently recording winds ranging from 2 to 5 knots across the nearshore waters. Temperatures across the island chain are primarily in the lower 80s.
Upper level analysis places high over Utah, with ridge stretching northward into Montana, while low slides through eastern Ontario. On Thursday, quiet weather expected as ridge over the region continues to be the dominate feature. Temperatures will be warmer, with western locations climbing into the 80s to around 90. Ridge over the region continues to be the dominating feature into Friday, bringing quiet weather and warm temperatures. A Pacific trough breaks down the ridge going into the weekend. This will allow cooler air to move into the region, along with bringing modest precipitation chances. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly Thursday as High pressure currently over the forecast area moves east. A warm front will move into western ND this afternoon, here winds will turn west to northwest, including KXWA and KDIK.
This afternoon the center of this high will be over the Four Corners area. This should result in slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures as the low-level thermal ridge moves into eastern New Mexico.
The skies will continue to be clear as high pressure dominates the weather for the next few days.
Gusty winds from the north were observed across the region today as a cooler and drier airmass advected in from northern Plains. Another nice day is on tap for Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
244 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 As of 07Z, a cold front is roughly estimated to be pushing through Cullman, Marshall, and DeKalb Counties. Persistent dry/cold air advection throughout the day will drop temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees compared to yesterday, with most locations in the low 80s (and higher terrain only in the mid 70s).
/Today through Friday/ The ArkLaTex will remain situated on the eastern side of a large upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region as Thursday begins, and very little about that arrangement will change for the duration of this short term forecast period. Proximity to the ridging will make for fairly warm afternoons, and persistent northerly flow aloft will funnel in copious amounts of dry air, allowing for another morning of below average lows. Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s under clear skies before falling into the low to mid 60s areawide with the assistance of radiational cooling, with continued clear skies and calming winds overnight. Friday will be a shade warmer, with afternoon highs making it into the low to mid 90s throughout the ArkLaTex.
Another very quiet day across the region with less wind than early this week as upper level ridging entrenches a larger influence. Nothing of note for tonight either although the onset of WAA likely keeps overnight lows a couple/few degrees warmer than the last few nights.
Morning lows should dip the the lower 50s for most, with a couple reports of upper 40s probable in northeast Nebraska. Warmer Friday & The Weekend The upper level ridge over the Southwest U.
Overnight lows are expected to be a couple degrees warmer than this morning, but overall pretty similar. The only significant change will be increasing heat, especially on Friday as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
, Lake Carl Blackwell at 54), while another locations along ridges are in the upper 60s (i. This is a hotter pattern for our region, and most locations will peak in the low to mid 90s. Through both advection and mechanical mixing, temperatures tonight will be warmer than we're experiencing early this morning.
309 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Upper level pattern at 500mb is more amplified, with ridging over the western half of the CONUS and troughing in the east. The cooler and drier air associated with this trough is continuing to filter into the region behind a cold front that has passed through the area overnight. Todays temperatures will only make it into the 80s, with highs in the east in the low to mid 80s at the max heat of day. Dewpoints are also much lower, in the low 60s/upper 50s.
A strong midlevel anticyclone (>596 dm) was centered near the Four Corners as of midnight, with some scattered cirrus over SW KS, embedded in the northerly flow on the upper high's eastern periphery. Models show the core of the upper high remaining to the west of SW KS Thursday through Friday, ending up over New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Even though the core stays west, models also show pronounced progressive warming Thursday and Friday, as the anticyclone expands eastward, forcing heights/thicknesses to climb.
There is a chance for fog to develop overnight as high pressure nudges in from the west. The pressure gradient should continue to relax as the high moves in from the west bringing winds down through the near term forecast. Cannot rule out some pea sized hail and some gusty winds in the lower levels mixing down to the surface. Warm air advection soars back in from the south Friday on the backside of the exiting high pressure.
Aloft the ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region will continue to build east into Texas. A weak surface cold front will continue to push south across the area today.
Friday-Weekend: Guidance is consistent in moving an upper level ridge/hot air mass now over the western U.
A low-level high is shifting east into the lower Mississippi Valley, continuing cold air advection along the low-level northwesterly flow and resulting in another day of cooler temperatures. The advance of the high will also result in a clear sky and lighter surface winds. Overnight the low-level high will continue to move eastward, its axis passing the forecast area, and veering the flow to the southwest by Friday morning. MRM Over the weekend the mid-level high will elongate over the southern CONUS, pushing the trough from the eastern CONUS out over the Atlantic. In the lower-levels, southwesterly flow will continue as the low-level anticyclone stalls over the Southeast US, advecting warm, dry air into the region. At the surface this will result in warming temperatures through most of the period, with highs well above normal in the low 90s.
Increasing ridging aloft, along with an area of low pressure crossing southern Canada will draw much above average temperatures into the region on Friday. While the lower levels will be warm, the lack of decent mixing/wind shift, along with elevated smoke, highs could be a bit cooler than expected.
1116 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Quite the pleasant afternoon across the region with temperatures in the low 80s, very low humidity, and a northerly breeze. By Friday, mid level ridging begins building back in from the west and southerly low level flow returns.
Temperatures as of noon ranged from the low to upper 70s, with comfortable dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Some of the more aggressive CAMs including the HRRR and NAMnest attempt to develop rain showers in the CU field from western Wisconsin to northeast Iowa, but this is likely overdone given the amount of dry air to overcome in the low-levels. Expected a persistence forecast through tomorrow as the high pressure over the Dakotas continued building southeast into the Midwest. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50s, with PM highs Thursday climbing into the low to upper 70s. Southerly flow on the back side of the high will warm daytime temperatures slightly, though conditions will remain quite pleasant with dewpoints remaining below 60 degrees.
Timing is still on track for Friday evening and overnight being the highest probability to have widespread showers.
1119 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Temperatures are above normal as a strong ridge of high pressure remains centered overhead and stretches across the entire western half of the country. Unfortunately, this also means smoke from the numerous wildfires burning across NorCal, the PacNW and Intermountain West remains trapped underneath this high and is recirculating around it. The lows are cooler as well and haven't been quite as warm, so adjusted both highs and lows down a couple degrees and blended with the cooler end of guidance to account for this. This high pressure area will remain directly overhead through Thursday so do not anticipate much change to the forecast day to day. An approaching low pressure system off the PacNW coast gradually shifts the center of high pressure from the Four Corners to the spine of the Southern Rockies.
Surface and mid level high pressure are setting the stage for VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period with clear skies and light winds expected. /Issued 952 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021/ Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over Kansas building southward behind the cold front currently across north Texas. High pressure center settles over ern OK/wrn AR tonight, and shifts east of our area Thursday afternoon. Dew points have fallen off nicely across areas north of I-40 in the wake of last night's cold front, a trend that is likely to spread into southeast Oklahoma through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight. Upper level ridging currently over the western United States will build eastward late this week and into the weekend, bringing another stretch of well above normal temperatures to the region.
Some rain and thunder chances Friday night, then quiet and cooler over the weekend. High pressure has parked itself over the Northland, and this has resulted in light to calm winds and clear skies aloft. Despite high pressure at the surface, a weak upper level wave traversing within the broad ridge over the western states will pass over northern Minnesota today and bring some clouds to the area. High pressure will continue east tonight into Friday. Southerly flow will develop on Friday with a warm front passing through the region. A cold front will pass through Friday night, and this may result in some showers and thunderstorms across far northern Minnesota.
357 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 High pressure was in control over the Central U.
Tonight Through Friday An upper ridge continues over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. The ridge will only move slightly to the Rockies by Friday. A cold front continues to move south through southern Arkansas this afternoon. High pressure and drier air will move into the state behind the front.
243 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A large ridge over the western part of the country will bring hot and dry conditions to Nebraska through the end of the week.
1039 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region with an upper level ridge centered over UT. Will see temperatures about 10 degrees above normal this weekend with the upper level ridge moving into MO, and also due to relatively strong low-mid level warm air advection with southwesterly surface winds.
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Canadian high pressure will provide cooler and drier Fall weather through Friday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and lows in the 50s.
A cold front will enter Central Alabama shortly in the far northwest.
215 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move slowly southeast through central North Carolina today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region tonight through the weekend. The cold front will pass through today bringing considerable cloudiness The actual cold front was still along and west of the Appalachians at 200 am. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build in from the Midwest. High pressure will move across the area this weekend as a moisture starved mid/upper level s/w trough cross the area.
Afternoon readings will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with upper 80s to lower 90s in store. The upper high currently across the 4-corners region will shift east through the weekend, with several days of well-above normal temperatures expected.
131 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Upper ridge will be centered over the area today. Ridge is breaking down slower over time in recent model solutions, resulting in warmer temperatures in the forecast for Friday, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
This will lead to increased temperatures with a warmer night on Thursday night and a warmer day on Friday.
In the wake of the cold front, dew points have tumbled into the upper 40s at some locations, such as kpah and kfwc. Tonight through Thursday night, high pressure will move east into the Mississippi Valley. Highs will be in the lower 80s Friday.
217 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Current surface map places weak high across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with trof across eastern Montana/Wyoming. Upper level ridge across the Rockies shifts into the plains today and Friday bringing a couple of warm/dry days with critical fire weather conditions. The trof/dry line shifts into western South Dakota this afternoon with some breezy west/northwest winds. Dry cold front slides through Friday night.
102 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight into Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s Thursday and then warm into the 80s this weekend. Gradual thermal moderation into the weekend as Great Basin mid level ridge builds eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley.
357 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A large ridge over the western part of the country will bring hot and dry conditions to Nebraska through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance shows the large ridge in the west breaking down this weekend with the upper pattern transitioning to a low amplitude progressive regime.
We will see a wide variety of low temperatures tonight, generally ranging from the lower 60s across our far northern zones, to the upper 60s across our far southern zones with mid 60s in between.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft will be the main weather features that will have control of our local conditions through this forecast period. We will continue to retain that trend in the forecast, although a bit cooler readings, down into the mid 40s, could be possible especially east. The upper ridge will slowly build overhead through the day as well. Warmer temperatures will also be the result, especially across our western zones, with highs expected to top out in the 80s there with 70s elsewhere. Any fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon will be confined to our far western areas where breezier southerly winds and the lowest relative humidity values will reside. Friday will feature warm and dry conditions as upper ridging will be in place across the high plains region.
Sunny skies are expected Friday, with slightly warmer temperatures as the high moves off to the east and surface winds become southerly.
Heat will increase each day this period as the upper level high pressure center expands eastward overhead.
/Issued 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ /Through Tonight/ Dry air has filtered into the region, with dew points generally ranging from the low 50s across North Texas to mid 60s across Central Texas. As winds remain fairly light under mostly clear skies, efficient radiational cooling should allow temperatures to bottom out in the low 60s to low 70s late this morning. Relatively benign weather is expected today as surface ridging becomes more pronounced over the area. Despite ambient temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s this afternoon, the dry air will result in apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. /NEW/ /Friday Onward/ Above normal temperatures will prevail heading into the upcoming weekend as a dominant upper ridge spreads subsidence overhead.
850 mb temps will be cooler today with values running between 11c and 13c. This will equate to afternoon highs, under mostly sunny skies, in the lower 80s.
A cold front appears to be moving off the Plateau and into the TN Valley, with a few showers along and ahead of it, and some light rain behind it in eastern KY. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 59 82 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 58 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 57 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 54 79 53 83 / 10 0 0 0 0.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A 500-mb ridge situated over the four corners region moves southeast into west Texas through the short term period. The ridge will bring subsidence and allow for drier air to move into Deep South Texas which will lead to lower than average dewpoints and temperatures making for pleasant weather over the next couple of days. Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s and even upper 60s in the Ranchlands.
but continue to expect temperatures to begin their climb today as warmer air pushes across the local area from the west. Expect the main upper ridge to be nearly centered across the local area by Friday afternoon.
523 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Current surface map places weak high across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with trof across eastern Montana/Wyoming. Upper level ridge across the Rockies shifts into the plains today and Friday bringing a couple of warm/dry days with critical fire weather conditions. The trof/dry line shifts into western South Dakota this afternoon with some breezy west/northwest winds. Dry cold front slides through Friday night.
638 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move slowly southeast through central North Carolina today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region tonight through the weekend. The cold front will pass through today bringing considerable cloudiness The actual cold front was still along and west of the Appalachians at 200 am. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build in from the Midwest. High pressure will move across the area this weekend as a moisture starved mid/upper level s/w trough cross the area.
Surface and mid level high pressures are setting the stage for VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period with clear skies and light winds expected. Afternoon readings will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with upper 80s to lower 90s in store. The upper high currently across the 4-corners region will shift east through the weekend, with several days of well-above normal temperatures expected.
933 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 A cold front will move slowly southeast through central North Carolina today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region tonight through the weekend. Good moisture transport and isentropic lift ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some tropical moisture from tropical depression Mindy, should allow precipitation to fill in for the remainder of the morning to afternoon hours, especially along/east of US-1. Much drier and cooler high pressure will build in from the Midwest. High pressure will move across the area this weekend as a moisture starved mid/upper level s/w trough cross the area.
The upper high continues to shift eastward, along with hot and very dry air. Highs will be slightly warmer over the mountains, and 5 to 10 degrees warmer over the plains. With the building ridge over the Great Basin, we'll start to see an area with less smoke west of us as the new smoke gets carried further north across the northern Rockies. This should bring a gradual shift of the smokiest area from the mountains eastward across the plains by tonight, with some improvement in the high country. On Friday, a large upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered over Northern New Mexico with an upper level trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest.
626 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 (Today and tonight) The cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau last night has settled in across the Hill Country. In it's wake, high pressure has carried a drier airmass into west central Texas. At the upper levels, a strong 500mb ridge across the Great Basin should start to nose it's way southeastward into Texas. This should allow high temperatures to reach nicely into the low to mid 90s today under clear to partly cloudy skies.
Strong upper ridge over the western CONUS this morning with last nights 500 mb chart placing the high center over UT. This high center will be sliding to the southeast into nrn NM later today as a Pacific trof moves through the PacNW.
Upper level pattern at 500mb is more amplified, with ridging over the western half of the CONUS and troughing in the east. The cooler and drier air associated with this trough is continuing to filter into the region behind a cold front that has passed through the area overnight. Todays temperatures will only make it into the 80s, with highs in the east in the low to mid 80s at the max heat of day. Dewpoints are also much lower, in the low 60s/upper 50s.
A weak and broad ridge will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the week, resulting in light to gentle breezes.
Skies will be mostly clear under high pressure aloft. /Issued 251 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021/ Looking at GOES-16 water vapor, there is an area of mid to upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners Region. Downstream is an area of low pressure sitting over the Hudson Bay area with an associated positively tilted trough extending into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. With the high pressure sitting over the Four Corners flow aloft is mostly out of the north over the FA. The high is positioned so that the flow will be coming from northern CA where wildfires remain ongoing. With the high building over the area more tomorrow highs are looking to be in the upper 90s to lower triple digits for Friday.
Trough energy moves in along the northern California and Oregon coasts this afternoon which will help push high pressure over the Great Basin region a little further southeast. Clouds return to much of the CWA this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorm activity possible, mainly across the higher terrain of central NV including areas along the Highway 50 corridor. Friday the trough energy from along the west coast will move through northern NV, bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, along with showers and thunderstorms.
322 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Today's H500 09/00Z hand analysis map shows the center of the Western ridge approaching the 4 Corners region. The center of the ridge will be shunted to the southeast as heights lower upstream by the next trough arriving to the PacNW Coast tonight. There is moisture being advected into the western side of the ridge which will not be a factor for our CWA until late tomorrow afternoon. It still appears the smoke is scattering just enough radiation that highs have generally been on the lower side of guidance. This looks more likely on Friday as the ridge shifts enough to the east the southerly flow should force the main conveyor belt of smoke well to the North and East.