Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The sub-tropical high pressure will continue to build across the western and northern Gulf of Mexico throughout the short term period, resulting in a dry weather pattern across Southeast TX. Moderate onshore flow will continue moisture transport, however, the subsidence provided by the area of high pressure will limit shower formation. 5 to 20 inches along the lower levels. Most areas will experience high temperatures in the mid 90s, with heat indices in the low to mid 100s.
Meanwhile at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure will linger across the area through the same period. While the influx of mid and high clouds from the west should deter widespread fog development, muggy BL dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s could result in some patchy fog across southern and eastern zones towards sunrise. Lows generally in the lower 70s. The combination of the redevelopment of the low level trough/boundary to the north into at least southern NC will support increasing dew points into the lower 70s Tuesday. We will place the higher POP in the south and east (near the boundary) with lowest POP in the N-NE where more isolated storms are anticipated.
639 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Much warmer river/stream water in this area is likely to promote patchy late night fog in the deep valleys of the Alleghenies. Morning sunshine should self-destruct quickly into a mdt cu field early Tuesday as a spoke of cooler air aloft pinwheels around the persistent upper low over New England. A few more clouds and slightly cooler air aloft will drop maxT back 2 to 5 degrees with the greatest 24hr change over the far northeast zones. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
Low clouds along with cooler air coming off the morning convection to the east and southeast has not allowed northeast sd and west central mn to warm up much today. Otherwise, with the high low level moisture and surface dew points through the night, expect the low clouds to remain or fill back in across much of the cwa tonight and remain into Tuesday. Tuesday will likely be mostly cloudy with the low clouds having a hard time breaking up along with higher clouds from the upper level low pressure trough coming in from the west and cold front pushing into the western cwa in the afternoon. Tuesday's highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
High pressure building in from the north will then bring slightly drier air to the area. Temperatures will get even warmer by late in the week. Given the high moisture content and slow moving/training storms, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible across our far southwest tonight.
740 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Much warmer river/stream water in this area is likely to promote patchy late night fog in the deep valleys of the Alleghenies. Morning sunshine should self-destruct quickly into a mdt cu field early Tuesday as a spoke of cooler air aloft pinwheels around the persistent upper low over New England. A few more clouds and slightly cooler air aloft will drop maxT back 2 to 5 degrees with the greatest 24hr change over the far northeast zones. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
1029 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Currently - A ridge axis extends across South Florida and the Keys resulting in light mostly east to southeast breezes. This is consistent with lower through mid level ridging centered across our area. Short Term Update - The ridge axis will remain near South Florida and the Keys through the overnight period, leaving winds light out of the east to southeast. Expect temperatures to slide down into the lower 80s. A nearby ridge will maintain generally light east to southeast breezes.
652 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Updated air quality section A trough of low pressure will push across the Great Basin tonight and Tuesday with much cooler weather prevailing. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will then build later this week for a warming trend.
703 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A blocking upper level ridge of high pressure is in place over the central Great Lakes tonight and remains fixed through the mid week period. SE MI will reside between an upper level ridge over the Midwest/western Great Lakes and an upper level low sitting over the Northeast. Good radiative cooling should result bring lows into the lower 60's for much of the region and possibly upper 50's in the Thumb helped by the Huron lake breeze.
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A trough of low pressure will linger over or near the region through the holiday weekend. Very little convection this afternoon due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge. Deep west northwest flow will persist on Tuesday in between a cut- off low over the Northeast and ridging extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, troughing will linger over the area. Temperatures peaking in the mid 90s will combine with dew points in the low-mid 70s to yield heat indices in the 105-108F range, mainly across the coastal counties. Lows Tuesday night will be slightly above normal, in the low to middle 70s.
611 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Quiet so far over the CWA with an upper low quite evident on satellite spinning over Idaho. Cooler Tuesday with some breezy conditions especially over the plains. Warmer and still mainly dry Weds under a wsw flow aloft.
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
The area of low pressure is slowly tracking eastward across central Idaho.
/issued 357 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ A few iolated showers and thunderstorms have been able to develop within the very moist low level environment this afternoon despite the broken to overcast cloud cover and upper ridging extending from the coast across much of the gulf of Mexico. Guidance has been hinting at a very weak wave wrapping around the northern periphery of this ridge and, based on the overall motion, that appears to be the source of the convection. The next couple of days look generally dry as the upper ridge slides west across the north central gulf providing even stronger capping across the region.
The synoptic gradient emanating from the combination of an offshore ridge along 140W longitude and a neutrally-tilted trough over Idaho has resulted in persistent northerly gradients. As the parent trough continues its eastward progression, gradients will further weaken allowing for a decrease in wind fields into the evening hours. From this evening onward, the lead upper trough will get replenished with a weaker system which sets up over Pacific Northwest and Upper Intermountain West by mid-week. This lowering of heights keep general troughing over the region which allows seasonal temperatures to prevail.
1014 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A trough of low pressure will linger over or near the region through the holiday weekend. Very little convection this afternoon due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge. Deep west northwest flow will persist on Tuesday in between a cut- off low over the Northeast and ridging extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, troughing will linger over the area. Temperatures peaking in the mid 90s will combine with dew points in the low-mid 70s to yield heat indices in the 105-108F range, mainly across the coastal counties. Lows Tuesday night will be slightly above normal, in the low to middle 70s.
Clouds have held tough today, which have kept temperatures a few degrees lower in the low to middle 80s.
339 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Upper low pressure will linger across the area through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few afternoon or early evening thunderstorms.
An upper low centered near Stanley, ID continues to wrap precipitation across far eastern OR/WA, but showers will gradually taper off overnight as the low makes its way into southwest MT.
High pressure under northwest flow aloft will maintain dry weather today with plenty of sunshine. Blocking pattern will persist through a good portion of the period with an upper low lingering over New England finally transitioning east by the end of the week. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain during the late afternoon each day but the vast majority of the forecast area will remain dry through the week. Opted to undercut NBM a degree or two as deterministic runs reside on the warmer side of the spread. Broad ridging centered over the central CONUS will be the dominant feature this weekend. Broad ridging wl support genl VFR with exception for incidents of peri-dawn fog.
144 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
A trough continues to churn out in the west with relatively weak mid level flow noted across the Plains this morning. Tonight the western trough is forecast to move out across the central and northern Plains while a frontal boundary initially across the high plains from the Dakotas to low pressure in western Kansas will move eastward into central Kansas with a warm front moving northeast across eastern Kansas this evening. There is also a low probability of some convection developing in northeast Kansas early this evening north of the warm front prior to the Nebraska convection. From Wednesday through the Independence Day weekend broad high pressure aloft will extend across the southern and central Plains.
1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Upper level analysis has a very amplified pattern across the CONUS with ridge over central portions and large trof over the west. Northern Plains lies just to the east of the western trof with closed low centered over southern Idaho. Cool front nudges eastward into central SD Tuesday as the upper trof and low start to move north-northeast through western MT. Upper low shifts north into western Canada on Wednesday, with drier air moving into the area. Ridge builds back over the region late week and the holiday weekend.
422 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A upper level area of low pressure will remain stalled over New England through midweek with showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
This will be ahead of a cold front that should stretch from the Dakotas into north central NE, then down into southwest KS.
435 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Skies are mostly clear throughout central PA as upper low continues to spin over New England and a lobe of mid level cloud extends from the Catskills to the Pocono Plateau and Mid Susq River Valley. Upper trough axis is progged to extend a bit further south into the Mid Atlantic region today, gaining slightly greater influence over sensible weather across the east.
As the low level jet interacts with this feature and any remnant outflow from ongoing convection, numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop after midnight and congeal into a backbuilding MCS. Latest guidance continues to support the Flash Flood Watch and have utilized the HREF probability matched mean guidance to place the highest QPF (2 to 4 inches) in a band from near Mexico to Wentzville, MO, with 1 to 2 inches likely across the remainder of the watch area. CVKING An upper level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies and Plains through the end of the week and into the weekend leading to seasonally warm/hot temperatures. Being on the east side of the building ridge will also keep at least our Illinois counties in the vicinity of the ring of fire with daily chances of thunderstorms.
With the low-level jet nearly opposite of the upper-level flow, a backbuilding or slow moving MCS is the most likely scenario before energy is used up and/or a strong enough cold pool develops to propagate away from the area as the low-level jet weakens. Areas well to our west are in the low 100s today and this heat may advect eastward. Given the uncertainty with cloud cover and the highest temperatures to stay west of the area, have kept temperatures in the lower 90s. Models have trended cooler in the area based on the potential MCS, cloud debris, and/or additional cloud cover that might develop within the strong moist advection. Highs should be in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s likely.
The mid-level ridge axis will move across the area today, positioning to our east tonight. In the lower levels, a more southwesterly fetch continues to advect moisture northeastward over southern Mississippi and into western Alabama. Therefore, the spatial coverage of storms should be limited by the dry air and ridging, but any that do develop will have the potential to become strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail, potentially becoming severe in an isolated instance. Look for another warm, muggy night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Breaks in the clouds will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s.
Diurnally- driven showers and storms are possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly east of Lake Ontario as a closed low continues to spin over New England. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. The upper low begins to move south and off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night.
102 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Weak high pressure builds in from the north tonight.
Temperatures will fall back to the low to mid 70s by morning. The ECMWF continues to be the most robust in developing storms near the KS/NE border, and this is likely due to keeping the warm front furthest south. The low pressure system moves through on Wednesday along with the cold front. This brings heat indices in the low 100s in east central KS and in the 90s elsewhere, but have held off on advisory for now due to the uncertainty with storms Tuesday night and the lingering impacts into Wednesday. Upper- level ridging then takes over for the rest of the week with warm and humid conditions continuing, although not nearly as hot as early this week.
418 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Upper low pressure will linger across the area through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few afternoon or early evening thunderstorms.
A deep layer ridge axis will remain centered over the Gulf coast and this will keep temperatures warm in the lower to middle 90s and rain chances on the lower end at 20 to 30 percent.
1153 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Some thin cirrus debris is all that can drift eastward through a blocking upper level ridge in place over the central Great Lakes. SE MI will reside between an upper level ridge over the Midwest/western Great Lakes and an upper level low sitting over the Northeast. Good radiative cooling should result bring lows into the lower 60's for much of the region and possibly upper 50's in the Thumb helped by the Huron lake breeze.
The synoptic gradient emanating from the combination of an offshore ridge along 140W longitude and a neutrally-tilted trough over Idaho has resulted in persistent northerly gradients. As the parent trough continues its eastward progression, gradients will further weaken allowing for a decrease in wind fields into the evening hours. JHM ] From this evening onward, the lead upper trough will get replenished with a weaker system which sets up over Pacific Northwest and Upper Intermountain West by mid-week. This lowering of heights keep general troughing over the region which allows seasonal temperatures to prevail. Valley and Delta high temperatures will run in the low 90s, locally up to 95 degrees in some spots through Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to retrograde westward over Southern Texas today. High temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two warmer with highs generally in the mid-upper 90s to lower 100s out west. Widespread heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees are likely again today, with slightly warmer heat indices possible across Zapata and western Starr Counties. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected be about a degree or two warmer than today.
with present temperatures ranging from the low 90s in Red Willow and Norton Counties and into the low 100s across far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. an axis/trough of low pressure is located roughly from Kirk, CO to Goodland, KS to Leoti, KS. Behind this trough is where the warmest temperatures. Locations along and southwest of this trough are presently experiencing Red Flag Warning conditions. To the east/northeast of this trough. Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon but moisture recovery at the lowest levels will not significant. For tomorrow, a cold front will move across the Tri-State area during the early morning hours, likely around to before sunrise for locations north of I-70 and west of HWY 83.
248 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Late in the week, the closed upper low will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows overnight near 70 degrees.
Then, look for even warmer temperatures and isolated diurnal thunderstorms through the late week and weekend as high pressure ridge builds in from the southwest. Lows will remain muggy in the low to mid 70s. Models agree that the upper low will open up as it moves northwest to southeastern Minnesota and eastern Iowa by 12z Wednesday.
Into the afternoon we will see slight chances for a few storms or showers primarily to the southwest given proximity to the upper level low that will be pushing slightly north/northwest.
Broad upper level subtropical ridge will be centered over the east-central Gulf of Mexico with NWLY flow in the mid levels while a closed upper level low resides over the New England coast. By afternoon the subtropical ridge will be suppressed allowing a vort lobe to encroach central Georgia late in the day.
1053 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A slow moving weather system will continue showers, thunderstorms, and cooler weather to start the week. The overall low pressure trough will still be over the region with a reenergizing low in southern B.
The lee trough across eastern CO will strengthen later today as the upper low currently ID continues pushing eastward. The gradient from the upper-level trough over western CONUS will loosen some over the forecast area Tuesday night allowing for calmer, more westerly winds.
Abundant showers will continue today as a mid-level low pressure system slowly lifts into North-central Montana. Precipitation will focus on the backside of the low in the form of a north-south band that will gradually work eastward through the Northern Rockies.
212 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Synopsis: The upper level low currently over western Montana will begin to open up and move slowly northeast through the area, then re- close over southern Alberta on Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper low over northern British Columbia will drop south into Washington by Wednesday, being absorbed by the low in Alberta. This low will drift northward into northern Alberta late in the week, allowing a ridge to build from the Desert Southwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures peaking in the upper 90s will combine with dew points in the lower 70s will yield these high heat indices. Broad upper level subtropical ridge will be centered over the east-central Gulf of Mexico with NWLY flow in the mid levels while a closed upper level low resides over the New England coast. By afternoon the subtropical ridge will be suppressed allowing a vort lobe to encroach central Georgia late in the day.
Despite mostly clear skies tonight, however, temperatures are still expected to be the same or slightly warmer than they were last night into this morning. While the ECMWF and NAM12 indicate measurable precipitation further south and east, the remainder of the models, to include the high resolution ones, keep the measurable precipitation north of the Umpqua Divide. We will need to be on the lookout for slightly cooler morning lows on the east side Wed and Thu mornings resulting in the potential for a bit more frost.
400 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A cold front will sag slowly southward into southern Virginia and North Carolina through today as high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada.
A weak ridge was located over the eastern third of the country, with a pronounced trof across the western US, and another trof across the eastern seaboard. Thru the remainder of the short term period, the ridge across the middle of the country will be caught in a squeeze play as the western trof swings to the east into the Plains, with the secondary trof remaining across the east coast.
- Building heat this week and holiday weekend Latest ensembles and medium range guidance consensus continue to suggest h8 temps will moderate with rising h5 heights as the upper ridge builds in. High temps for the holiday weekend will reach the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
152 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A trough of low pressure will linger over or near the region through the holiday weekend. Previous Discussion: Very little convection this afternoon due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge. Deep west northwest flow will persist on Tuesday in between a cut- off low over the Northeast and ridging extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, troughing will linger over the area. Temperatures peaking in the mid 90s will combine with dew points in the low-mid 70s to yield heat indices in the 105-108F range, mainly across the coastal counties. Lows Tuesday night will be slightly above normal, in the low to middle 70s.
355 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the local area.
241 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Mid level energy across the Mid Mississippi Valley region, caught in a weakness in the H5 ridge will continue to be the focus for showers and storms today. However trying to pinpoint the highest risk areas is difficult given varying HiRes model solutions. With the persistent low trop influx of moist, unstable air into the region, and the continued presence of the ridge weakness and lift with the mid level system, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight through Wednesday night.
Mid level ridging will slowly transit westward today and tonight, allowing mid level subsidence and dry air to move westward as well. Our area will be on the northeast side of the retrograding ridge which means our mid level flow will become increasingly northwesterly. Highs today will reach the mid 90s with heat index values in the low 100s.
With these clouds, overnight lows will be very warm, only dropping to the low to mid 70s. Highs should be a bit cooler, topping out in the mid 80s most locations.
GAH AFTERNOON FORECAST: The upper level low currently over Idaho will begin to open up and move northward through the area, then re-close over southern Alberta on Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper low over northern British Columbia will drop south into Washington by Wednesday, being absorbed by the low in Alberta. This low will drift northward into northern Alberta late in the week, allowing a ridge to build from the Desert Southwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley.
326 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Messy weather pattern will set up over the Mid-South at least through the end of the week as an upper trough currently over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi River Valleys sinks south into the Tennessee River Valley. Disturbances will move through the trough and will set off several rounds of convection over the Mid-South.