Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mean easterly flow through the column has lessened considerably relative to 24 hours ago as the area has become sandwiched between ridging in the western Atlantic and central US. Strong mid-level anticyclone remains across central U. with trough offshore Atlantic coast to just offshore FL. Low level ridge meanders across northern peninsula. GFS/ECMWF consistent with general pattern of area of lower moisture moving across northern CWA over the weekend as ridge redevelops and drops southward. Strong anticyclone builds over western Atlantic with ridge axis extending west toward northernmost peninsula.
Temperatures range from the lower 80s in rain cooled areas to the upper 80s elsewhere.
332 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Deep easterly flow throughout the entire column despite disassociated stacked high with bermuda ridge in the lower levels and eastern fringe of continental high in the upper levels.
129 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure in control with dry and stable air.
An upper low centered near 40N/135W will move towards us over the next 24 to 36 hours. The models have come into better agreement with the timing and track of the upper low. Temperatures Thursday will also be cooler for many interior locations.
Temperatures were running slightly cooler across western areas today, although high temperatures are expected to top out in the 90s to low 100s across the area.
High pressure aloft will cap most shower and thunderstorm activity. /issued 355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS maintaining a light onshore low-level flow over the forecast area this morning. Water vapor imagery continues to show mid/upper-level ridging across the cntl CONUS with the ridge axis in place from nrn TX through the Plains States. Short-range high-res models painting a little better POPs over the nern zones by afternoon which seems fair given less capping from ridging aloft to our west. Temps today will nudge upward with slight warming aloft progged in association with the ridging. Thursday looks to be something of a repeat of today with ridge axis hanging to our west.
300 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Water vapor imagery shows 597 dam ridge dominating over the Southern Plains and slightly more amplified than yesterday. An upper trough is spinning off the coast in the Pac NW with upper flow extending into the far Northern Plains where more active weather is expected. Thursday looks to be even warmer with many areas expected to reach 100. Weak lee troughing will keep southerly winds in the forecast for much of the period.
Dry southwest flow ahead of an upper low off the Pac NW coast will maintain the hot and dry conditions thru Thursday. dragging a cold front thru the fcst area Fri afternoon. This will result in more wind and a little cooler temps. Winds look lighter for Thursday with some gusts to 20 mph possible near ridgetop.
This should set the stage for another round of afternoon thunderstorms mainly near the mountains and the high plains of Wyoming.
A little more wind today but not likely to make it feel much cooler.
338 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 high pressure builds over the region tonight and remains place through the weekend. Latest surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over central VA with a weak, broad coastal trough along the NC/VA coast.
Moving forward, the flattened nw flow will become more anti-cyclonic on Thursday as the upper high over the southern plains, strengthens.
A broad upper-level ridge remains firmly anchored over the Central CONUS, and this ridge will continue to be the primary feature in the pattern for the next seven days.
349 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 A broad upper-level ridge remains firmly anchored over the Central CONUS, and this ridge will continue to be the primary feature in the pattern for the next seven days.
/issued 236 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/ Ridging influence and the associated dry weather pattern will begin to weaken its grip through the short term as a more active southwest flow aloft becomes established by late in the period. large-scale upper-level pattern continues fairly static with the larger wavelength troughiness stuck across the rockies and high plains and broad/weak ridging over the east.
910 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the region will continue to support fair weather over the region through Wednesday. High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest dew points only in the lower 50s. Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm front lifts into the area.
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.
High pressure near the surface and aloft will build into central NC through midweek. High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear skies and light wind regime. while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable, primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the heat of the day.
1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Currently - Atlantic High pressure building into the southeastern United States is trying to bring in an increasing easterly flow. On top of this, short lived, but repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms have developed along and north of the Lower Keys cloud line. Light mostly easterly flow will gradually strengthen overnight across Florida keys waters as a high pressure system builds into the southeastern United States.
High pressure will build east of the region tonight and Tuesday.
Tonight through Wed Nt: With the upper trough (currently stretching from NE Oregon to the Idaho Panhandle) translating slowly E the next 24 hours. we'll be transitioning to a drier, slightly more stable air mass with upper ridging replacing the trough. Sfc heating combined with steep mid-level lapse rates aloft in the vcnty of this trough is at least partly responsible for the showers and isolated thunder currently moving south roughly north of a line from Kellogg to Spokane and Omak. Uncapped SBCAPE no more than about 500 j/kg in an environment of only modest deep layer shear should continue to generate short-lived small clusters of thunder (and locally heavy downpours) over preferred initiation points such as mtn ridges and along lines of moisture convergence from thunder outflow.
Otherwise, we can expect another warm, muggy night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Drier air, particularly above the 850mb inversion, is found above this low level moisture. With ridge of high pressure nosing into the central Gulf Coast States, instability in sounding will remain untapped. Winds in the lowest levels are from the southeast and then become from the northwest around 14000 feet through the remainder of the atmosphere. Upper level ridge will help keep temperatures at or slightly above normal through the weekend.
1242 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across northern counties. Drying trend for the rest of Wednesday night with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region.
An upper level low currently located over southern Saskatchewan will keep the region in southwest cyclonic flow.
However, as this system breaks down the upper level ridge, it seems that activity will drop into wrn portions of the CWA late tonight and likely persist into Wed morning.
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the southeastern United States resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the week. Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently building over the southeastern CONUS.
1030 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of the region overnight.
High pressure near the surface and aloft will build into central NC through midweek. High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear skies and a light wind regime overnight, as the stacked area of low pressure (now located near the Northeast U. However, with temps having warmed into the 80s today expect overnight lows will be warmer tonight than last. Expect low temps will range from the mid 50s in the coolest rural areas to the lower 60s/around 60 in the urban areas. while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable, primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the heat of the day.
The 12Z NAM & GFS greatly increase POP's tonight as a result of a weak upper trough and pool of deeper moisture moving across the area, and will at least include isolated cells across our north, but a lack of instability, dry sub-850 mb layer and anti-cyclonic flow at the surface suggest lower POP's might be more realistic. By tomorrow, a deep low pressure system will set up over the central Plains, with a highly amplified pattern developing aloft. Complex eating into upper ridge and has managed to hold together and has gotten farther east than I would have thought.
Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all of Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed high pressure centered across the mid-Atlantic coast, while latest visible satellite had mostly clear skies minus a few cumulus west of I-65. The upper levels are characterized by an anomalous cut off low off the New England coast while weak ridging to southwesterly flow was across the central Plains. Plan on lows in the low 60s. For Wednesday, look for a slightly more humid/muggy day as dewpoints creep up into the low 60s, especially west of I-65. The highest chances, still capped at about 30 percent, will be across southern Indiana and portions of west-central Kentucky. Plan on highs in the low/mid 80s.
Update: Adjusted chances of precipitation up a little bit in the lower Yellowstone River Valley through tomorrow morning. Proton Synopsis: A pair of upper lows under a broad upper trough will make for unsettled conditions over northeast Montana, with the lower Yellowstone valley and adjacent areas seeing significant rainfall into Wednesday. this weak circulation has a good moisture source, and will rapidly deepen in the mid and low levels, driving widespread rainfall mainly targeted over the lower Yellowstone valley late tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening the low will slowly drift into North Dakota sending the best precipitation band northward along the Montana/North Dakota border.
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the region will continue to support fair weather over the region through Wednesday. High pressure will keep subsidence over the region tonight which will support mostly clear skies and light winds. With the highest dew points only in the lower 50s. Looking at some cloud coverage by the afternoon which will hold Temperatures in the lower 80s in most areas. Looking at an increase rain chances Wednesday night as a warm front lifts into the area.
Breezy to windy conditions will occur Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of the region overnight.
so the remaining challenge for the tonight period remains the onset of precipitation with the upcoming low pressure system.
A long wave upper level trough remains over the western U. short waves moving through the trough are creating unstable conditions. A long wave ridge will build into the area tonight through Wednesday evening. and this will bring in drier weather and warmer temperatures.
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. bringing a noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening into the first part of the holiday weekend. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool overnight with lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains.
925 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Wednesday will be another breezy and cooler-than-average day as a trough of low pressure moves across the area.
Mostly sunny, breezy, and warm conditions prevailed across central Illinois this afternoon as the area remained under the influence of surface/upper ridging. Thanks to continued southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, overnight low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s.
The pattern will be dominated by a large trough across the west half of the U. , and a large ridge across the east half of the U. A period of NE winds of 20 to 25 knots over the western lake is possible Wednesday as low pressure develops over the plains and moves to the Upper MS valley.
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week. low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the west.
The interaction of southeast winds feeding into the Denver Cyclone and an upper level disturbance will trigger the main show this afternoon.
Increased mixing and a cold front approaching the West coast will also allow for some marginally breezy conditions in the afternoon.
Will keep the low PoPs for parts of the plateau as a shower may make it into these areas overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 65 88 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 86 63 86 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 85 63 87 / 10 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 81 60 85 / 0 10 10 20.
Complex eating into upper ridge and has managed to hold together and has gotten farther east than I would have thought.
With a mean trough still over the west and northern Rockies, southwesterly flow aloft remains over the central plains. Lows tonight should be in the lower to mid 60s with rain cooled air helping to cool temps more so than they would be without precip. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower and mid 80s as models advect warmer air into eastern KS with 850MB temps warming to around 22C and 700MB temps between 8 and 10C.
persistent sly winds have brought warmer and more humidity back to the region today. models actually indc some weak upr ridging ovr the area later wed into wed ngt.
1239 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today.
11" has also been reported at Chews Ridge and Ventana Cone (in Monterey County), respectively over the last 6 hours. Latest water vapor imagery as well as the last few frames of the visible imagery depicts a nicely formed upper low centered at approx. The upper level trough and associated closed low responsible for the unsettled/unstable weather we have seen for the past couple of days is forecast to dig a bit further south before swinging across South-Central California on Wednesday.
Pacific moisture riding up and over the near flattened upper ridge will make for a mostly overcast Wednesday. Slight rain chances will exist tomorrow purely due to the fact that warming into the lower 80s will produce light showers within such a humid air mass.
At the surface, high pressure will establish itself off the NC/SC coast, keeping winds onshore. Aloft, a piece of the upper level trough that has been prevalent over the eastern seaboard will slowly cut off over the Bahamas. High pressure shifting off the Carolina coast will build a few millibars which will increase the gradient, bringing mainly 10-15 knot east winds. High pressure will establish itself off the NC/SC coast, freshening the easterly flow occasionally up to 15 to 20 knots offshore. Weak low pressure expected to develop well east of the state while gradually moving northward.
the models are in good agreement lifting a h700mb warm front into Srn Neb tonight. Highs rise 75 to 85 and a weak area of Pacific high pressure builds into the fcst area.
The sharp upper ridge which brought a prolonged period of very dry conditions to the area is now to our east, while an upstream trough is located over the southwest United States. The only exception will be across eastern Wisconsin near Lake Michigan where an easterly wind will keep it cooler. for 06Z TAF Issuance a weak cold front will move south across the region late tonight and winds will shift to the east after it goes by.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the upcoming weekend, ahead of a general upper level longwave trof over the eastern Rockies and high plains.
A 30 kt sswly LLJ will aid the push of the warm front northward with the associated moisture transport and warm advection. A warm front and upper level disturbance will then bring numerous showers and tstorms for the afternoon and possibly evening.
1016 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool overnight with lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains.
1156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Aviation A weak cold front will move south across Lower Michigan tonight but wash out near US-10 Wednesday. A weak cold front is moving south across southern Ontario and will move over northern Lower later tonight and Wednesday. Guidance trends have been to wash this front out near US-10 and then move it back north as a warm front.
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Mostly sunny, breezy, and warm conditions prevailed across central Illinois this afternoon as the area remained under the influence of surface/upper ridging. Thanks to continued southerly flow and increasing surface dewpoints, overnight low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s.
The sharp upper ridge which brought a prolonged period of very dry conditions to the area is now to our east, while an upstream trough is located over the southwest United States. The only exception will be across eastern Wisconsin near Lake Michigan where an easterly wind will keep it cooler. a weak cold front will move south across the region late tonight and winds will shift to the east after it goes by.
A large amplitude trough is slowly making its way across the western US.
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week. low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the west.
Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer over the plains, but a few degrees cooler over the mountains where cooler air will be dropping down from an upper low over the Great Basin.
Once they matured, the heavy rain will drag the cold air aloft down to the surface, and thus choking off the warmer air inflow into these thunderstorms, and then lead to the demise of these showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny skies will develop on Wednesday as the cutoff low moves across Southern California into the Four Corner region, and a strong upper level ridge builds over Eastern Pacific Ocean. Dry conditions will continue through the Memorial Day weekend as the upper ridge remain in control over the area. Highs will be in the mid 70s inland, in the low to mid 60s along the coastal area. /RCL Pressure gradients will tighten up the next 24 hours as high pressure strengthens offshore.
Complex back along the Mississippi River beginning to wind down as upper ridge just too strong for it to buck.
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. bringing a noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening into the first part of the holiday weekend. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool overnight with lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains.
912 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the southeastern United States resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the week. High based cumulus per moisture seen around 7h off the evening RNK sounding should continue to fade with loss of heating making for a mainly clear and comfortable overnight under high pressure. Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently building over the southeastern CONUS.
Convection does look to pick up in the next day or two as the upper trough brings lower heights/pressures aloft early in the holiday weekend. Some improvements will occur late Sat as the upper ridge builds back in it's wake ahead of the next big west coast trough. Ridging aloft from the Western Gulf of Mexico into the middle sections of the country and with closed lows/troughs across the West and East coasts. The more Northern zones will typically see the higher chances for convection given the location of the disturbances and available energy.
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 The active pattern will continue as southwest flow aloft enters the region this afternoon ahead of a broad longwave trough positioned over the west coast. Lee-side low pressure will develop by late this evening over western Kansas, with a dryline running south into the Texas Panhandle. An effective warm front draped over the KS/NE border, combined with an eastward storm motion parallel with the boundary could lead to training storms along this boundary as it approaches NW Missouri.
This should scour most of the low level moisture out of the forecast area. Pattern continues to indicate a persistent trough to the west with upper level impulses ejecting over an almost daily presence of a dryline.
/issued 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will continue to be the main player in the forecast through Wednesday, while a 500 mb trough/closed low digs across the western US and another closed low moves across the northern plains. Convection will be limited due to the ridging in place through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the ridge axis will have shifted east and midlevel disturbances moving through the flow may fire up convection over the Mexican plateau.
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Aviation A weak cold front will move south across Lower Michigan tonight but wash out near US-10 Wednesday. A weak cold front is moving south across southern Ontario and will move over northern Lower later tonight and Wednesday. Guidance trends have been to wash this front out near US-10 and then move it back north as a warm front.
645 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the CWA through Friday.
A building upper ridge will strengthen the inversion through Friday.
Low pressure over southern Ontario and high pressure over the central Rockies will keep us under a cold northwest flow through the weekend. Models indicate an upper trough will remain across the Great lakes and our region through the weekend.
528 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with northerly winds 5-10 knots veering to the northeast by Friday afternoon as surface ridging builds farther into the region. Elongated trof stretching from the ne states into the 4-corners area will sag sse going into the weekend as ridge expands northward along the west coast.