Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016/ SFC RIDGING OVER WCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AS H850 WINDS BECOME MORE WNW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OPENING TROUGH OVER W TX THAT WILL RIDE E ALONG THE COASTAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
Thermal axis shifts over the region on Sunday in approach of a weak cold front.
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY CHANGE BEING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY MID MORNING TOMORROW. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE NORTHWEST.
OR LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ON THE LOWER DESERTS MON-WED. ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FLOW IS EVIDENT ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH THE CLEARLY DEFINED CLOCKWISE RIDGE CIRCULATION IN THE THINNING ATMO MOISTURE AND NOTED SUBSIDENT FLOW HEADING INTO SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. WHILE PACIFIC TROUGHING UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET BEGINS TO STALL OUT AND DEVELOP INTO A LARGER CLOSED LOW FEATURE WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS TWO TROUGH/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE LARGER SUBTROPICAL LOW. ONE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AROUND 126W AND ONE FURTHER BACK UPSTREAM BACK AROUND 136W. REDUCING RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF A WINTRY MIX OR JUST FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE FELL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MILD SUNDAY AND A TAD WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. WILL MONITOR WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR SUNDAY AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS THERE IN THE MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
1051 PM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BREEZY AND WARMER.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS A CLIPPER IN EASTERN ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
The other weather issue occurs after midnight tonight as high pressure and colder air overspreads the region. By sunrise Sunday the high is forecast to be centered over the southeast portion of our CWA.
DRY NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF WHAT REMAINS OF YESTERDAY/S TROUGH WILL BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION HAVE HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON A FEW DAYS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. NORMAL HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
INSERTED A SCEC HEADLINE OVER THE 20-60NM ZONE FROM THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT FOR WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO A WEAK LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF COLORADO AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL FALL APART OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
The next upper trough in the flow was bringing quick pressure falls to northwest North Dakota.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST.
THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THE WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY (NNW) WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WHILE A TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016/ A mean western ridge/eastern trough pattern will prevail over the CONUS through much of the forecast period.
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AND WARNING WHICH CONTS OVER THE RIDGE ZONES. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS FLEETING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACRS THE AREA. TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INITALLY.
AND AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF SUN TOMORROW ARE ON TAP AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW FLATTENS A BIT. EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CLIMBING TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
Winds shud become light and vrb before becoming sly as the ridge shifts ewd. The sly winds shud help keep temps warmer. The 850mb thermal ridge ahead of the clipper is forecast to extend from near Kansas City up across northern Missouri into west central Illinois and down across central Missouri. Expect our warmest temperatures in the low to mid 70s across those areas.
SOME OF IT IS DISSIPATING CUMULUS THAT SPROUTED OVER THE RIDGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT HAVING MUCH OF AN EFFECT OTHER THAN KICKING OFF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. MORE WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER EARLY THIS EVENING AND COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES AIDED BY PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE SERN U.
1134 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE MOVG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THREE-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 1-2 MB IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW CONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTN AND CONT TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NEXT SHRTWV OF INTEREST FOR THE CWA WAS CURRENTLY TOPPING THE RIDGE IN WRN ALBERTA. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN NEB/SD.
941 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO CORNING ARKANSAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL FALL APART OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
The cold front has pushed through the CWA and the low clouds behind the front are only lingering across the far southeastern part of the area. High pressure builds in at the surface tonight behind the front while the mid to upper level flow remains southwesterly.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
721 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
WINDS AND WX/QPF/SNOW FOR THE TODAY PERIOD WHILE SOUTHWARD MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IS RACING ACROSS THE CWA. AND THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION NAM/GFS AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES. DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 0200Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 70S. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR.
237 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
1240 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 402 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/ FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL SEND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON IT HEELS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
433 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A BIT OF RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE.
342 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA. LOCATIONS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS LAST NIGHT IN ALBERTA SAW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S F BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
AND SO WILL BE THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WITH RIDGING SLATED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TRANQUIL DAY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 45 68 40 / 10 10 70 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 40 65 39 / 20 10 60 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 39 65 39 / 10 10 60 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 32 62 38 / 30 0 30 80.
47 COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
245 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE ERLY THIS EVE UNDER SFC RIDGING. CLOUDS ARE EXPD TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS S ACRS THE RGN. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS WRN PA TO SE NY TUE NGT. AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES LT TUE NGT. WITH THE BEST LGT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1125 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 Quiet mild weather today as weak high pressure moves across the area.
/ISSUED 530 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH. THIS SHOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. WITH COOLER TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
Winds gusting 20-30 mph will taper off early this evening across the higher terrain and exposed areas. Tuesday a warm front will move southwest to northeast across the area causing widespread cloud cover and light rain and snow showers into the evening. Tuesday night winds will increase and snow levels will fall rapidly with a cold front. The high winds with the snow will cause difficult driving conditions over the passes. Especially in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys, the Highway 200 corridor, and I-90 from Garrison Junction to Anaconda and Butte will see a quick blast of strong winds gusting around 40 mph with the front.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY SIMILAR ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUE MORNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BUT NO WIND /MORE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR THOUGH SCATTERED CIRRUS COULD PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME LOCATIONS. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST THETA-E/WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE EVE/NIGHT. AND THE LOW TEMP FORECAST WED MORNING MAY EASILY BUST BY 10-15F ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.
427 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN WILL TEND TO REMAIN MIXED OR REMIX DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
1207 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 High pressure was in the process of moving over the Ozarks this morning.
0-6 KM shear is high but much of it's contribution is in the lowest KM.
107 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. OF COURSE THIS ALL IMPORTANT FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND LOCATION OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW. SHARPENING MID LVL TROUGH W/200 METER HGTS FALLS ALG THE OH RVR PORTENT VIGOROUS SFC DVLPMNT LTR TUE AS THIS SYS LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WED. FUTHERMORE PER STG MID LVL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. BELIEVE A STRONGER/FASTER DVLPG SFC CYCLONE SHLD RESULT WHICH WOULD SPRT A BAND OF HVY SNOW DVLPG TUE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT THIS EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL AFFECT THE CUT BANK/HAVRE AREAS TODAY.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WHITE FROM LAST NIGHTS SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. STILL LITTLE SNOW COVER SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE FCST AREA AT 09Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN OVER ERN ND TUESDAY. SOME TEMP MODERATION DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER IN MANY AREAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO LEANED TOWARD A BIT WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CREATING A WIDE RANGE IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE BEFORE WASHING OUT.
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SWEEP SWIFTLY ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY BEING REACHED AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Cold front over southern Iowa is continuing to sink southward, but strengthening low pressure over Kansas is starting slow the front down with southerly flow over Missouri. Areal coverage and intensity of the precip increases as low level moisture convergence intensifies on the low level jet.
306 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OF UTAH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. STILL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED ABOVE THE DRIER SFC AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO UNLOCK THIS POTENTIAL ENERGY THIS FAR WEST. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THUS PROVIDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA. WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. LAWSON STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
1150 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1008 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK TROUGHING EXITING THE TN VALLEY TO THE EAST, WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF EXTENDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SWWRD INTO THE ARKLAMISS, BISECTING OUR AREA FROM SW TO NE.
In addition, compressional warming ahead of the front across north central areas lead to increasing temps a few degrees into the lower 70s. This lowered minimum humidity values to the 18-22 percent range. Lows fall to the low 30s north central to near 40 in the far southeast. Upper trough swings out early Tuesday morning, with deep moisture still lacking and forcing exiting.
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH BETTER LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
The main upper trough is shifting east. There will also be some breezy conditions on the backside of the trough but nothing as strong as yesterday. Cote' 18Z TAFS: One system exits and ridge of high starts in from the west today.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AS THE AIR COMING IN IS DRIER. HIGH VALUES FOR 500MB HEIGHTS MEANS THAT THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD WEST AND DIMINISH SOME HOLDING NEAR 11 KTS UNTIL A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 15G25 KTS. WINDS AT LBB AND PVW WILL TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE TOMORROW WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/ A DEVELOPING LEE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CAPE.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WARM INLAND TEMPS AND COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
1257 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC ISOLATED -SHRA OVER THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTY OF DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA E INTO CNTRL LA THIS MORNING NEAR A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS S OF THE FRONT.
121 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING PICKING UP STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST PER OBSERVED SURFACE AND BOWMAN NDARB RADAR TRENDS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. THE 00 THROUGH 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. DID BLEND POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO THE 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES WHICH HAVE A GREATER HANDLE ON THE SHALLOW LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. EARLY THIS MORNING ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO POUR INTO NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW MONDAY EVENING.
Trialing cold front will surge across West Central Texas on Tuesday, reaching the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene by shortly after sunrise, San Angelo and Brownwood by mid morning, and into the I-10 locations by noon. Gusty north winds will prevail but with only slightly cooler temperatures.