Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few embedded waves rotating around the low over Nevada brought showers to southeast Washington and central Idaho, and the low is slowly tracking south with no influence for the rest of day and tonight. It will be a little cooler today compared to yesterday due to the north- northeast winds at the surface and aloft.
1108 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A warm front will move north through the area today and tonight as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will move through the area this weekend followed by high pressure, although some upper disturbances could keep it unsettled. Tonight: It looks like a warm front will move north through the region after midnight with the NAM depiction favored over faster solutions. Very mild overnight temps in the low to mid 60s suggest fog may become an issue.
251 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A southwest CONUS upper level low will continue to organize and propagate to the northeast this evening, overnight, and through the day Thursday. Fortunately, this drizzle is not expected to be freezing as temperatures start out in the upper 30s to low 40s at the onset. As temperatures cool off aloft and at the surface, a transition from drizzle to freezing drizzle/rain followed by snow is expected. Shortly after surface temperatures begin to drop below freezing, BUFKIT soundings indicate saturation will occur throughout the DGZ. This will lead to a relatively small window of freezing rain/drizzle.
In the Eastern Tennessee Valley a warm front is stationed to the south and we're seeing mid/low level and high level clouds blanketing most of the area. Currently (early afternoon) the Tri-Cities is warmer than Knoxville or Chattanooga. A deep upper level trough will be translating across the Plains and Midwest. A trailing cold front will be extending from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle.
810 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A warm front will traverse the area tonight.
Overnight temperatures will once again run cooler than average, but should trend warmer (about 5 degrees below average). Radar imagery as of 2 PM shows clusters of showers between Boise and McCall drifting to the northwest as moisture wraps around low pressure centered over northwest Nevada. As the sun sets and the low over NW Nevada sinks southward, showers are expected to dissipate.
Downstream of this low system, divergent southwesterly flow was streaming considerable moisture and cloud cover acrs the southern plains. Additional weaker disturbances emanating through the southwesterly flow over the region are producing showers and storms acrs the lower MS Valley, atop a relatively flat ridge of higher pres over the Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, subtropical high pres ridging west along the Gulf coast, continues to bring abnormally warm and humid conditions acrs the region.
A southwest CONUS upper level low will continue to organize and propagate to the northeast this evening, overnight, and through the day Thursday. Fortunately, this drizzle is not expected to be freezing as temperatures start out in the upper 30s to low 40s at the onset. As temperatures cool off aloft and at the surface, a transition from drizzle to freezing drizzle/rain followed by snow is expected. Shortly after surface temperatures begin to drop below freezing, BUFKIT soundings indicate saturation will occur throughout the DGZ. This will lead to a relatively small window of freezing rain/drizzle.
220 PM PDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A low pressure system off the northern Baja coast will move inland across northern Baja this evening with a second low pressure system remaining across California and Nevada into Thursday.
614 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A warm front will traverse the area tonight.
Freezing drizzle and patchy fog will continue to be possible, however snow is the predominant precipitation type this afternoon.
805 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Snow showers will continue overnight across much of the area with the added chance of freezing drizzle for areas east of a line from Baker to the Pryors. Soundings are indicating a layer of supercooled liquid near the surface and we are already seeing reports of mist in Baker with temperatures below freezing.
Looking for another round of -SHRA ahead of a Pacific cold front this evening with TEMPO TSRA possible in MVFR visibilities at KFST and KMAF late this evening through the early morning hours at these TAF sites. Expect the Pacific cold front to sweep from west to east before sunrise with VFR conditions areawide, with southwesterly to westerly winds cranking up to around 20 knots sustained with gusts over 30 knots by midday. /issued 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/ WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has separated in two, w/the southern portion just making landfall at Baja del Norte, leaving progressive SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A secondary cold front late Thu night will then take temps well-blo normal Fri/Sat, w/Sat being the coldest day this forecast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 78 64 72 53 / 30 20 30 100 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 78 65 72 51 / 30 20 20 100 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 77 64 72 50 / 60 30 30 100 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 77 61 72 49 / 50 30 10 90 80.
Satellite imagery shows the large trough continuing to evolve along the West Coast with multiple low centers moving about. Shower chances have tapered off this afternoon as the low over Nevada has shifted east; however, light rain and snow showers will remain possible through the overnight hours. As trough progresses eastward, we can expect to see generally milder weather.
Temperatures overnight should remain on the warm side with the warm dewpoints and southerly winds remaining in place as the expected cold front is not forecast to move into the CWA until Thursday night. forecasted lows in the low to mid 60s still look to be in good shape.
738 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Continued stacked ridging over the region producing subsidence over the state. Upper level troughing over the eastern Pacific and western U.
Travel should be delayed tonight into Thursday morning in the high country due to winter weather driving conditions. A few thunderstorms capable of small hail will be possible across southern Yavapai County this afternoon where shear and instability begin to align ahead of the low. Across the high country, as precipitation coverage increases snow levels will begin to drop down with accumulating snow beginning above 5500-6000 ft by the evening. Hi-res models indicate a wave of widespread heavy precipitation moving northward across the area between 5-8 PM MST as the upper trough crosses the area providing enhanced dynamics. Behind the cold frontal passage, snow levels will drop down to around 4500-5000 feet Thursday morning. Travel across the high country is not advised during these times.
523 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2020 20z surface analysis had weak cold front from north central WY into east central SD. Low pressure will developing over eastern CO with a boundary northeast into northern NE. Water vapour had upper low of interest over Baha California with main 130kt jet streak starting ejecting northeast into the desert southwest. Tonight/Thursday, upper low races northeast into southeast NE Thursday and then into the upper Midwest.
With extensive moisture in the low levels, from the stalled out frontal boundary which will drape from the Ohio Valley through the southern Plains, clouds will continue to remain overnight and Thursday. The upper level pattern will significantly change over the next 24-36 hours, with a large trof developing across the desert sw and southern Plains. This is associated with a cut-off Low pressure core in the far western US. This cut-off Low will eject a secondary Low into the Plains through Thursday. The first round will be with the warm front, as it lifts northward through the region Thursday morning. With the Low approaching the region, a cold front will begin to approach the region.
1049 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Low pressure will track east across Pennsylvania tonight.
Not much to speak of in terms of necessary forecast updates, as mid-level ridge maintains hold over the region, offering significant drying and little moisture availability for nighttime showers. Temperatures drop to the low to mid 60s, but still holding on to 5- 10 degrees above normal values.
Lows tonight should be in the low 70s across most locations as increasing cloud cover will continue to inhibit radiative cooling. Tomorrow, an advancing upper trough to our north will make jet dynamics more favorable for shower/thunderstorm development across the northern counties once again during the morning and afternoon hours. Aside from this, the overall pattern remains the same as we once again rise into the low 80s across the majority of the area with dew points reaching around 70.
1025 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Currently - A broad ridge extending southwestward off the Atlantic coast, continues across Florida and the southeast into the Gulf of Mexico. Robust deep layered ridging aloft is present across our area with around 590 at 500 mb. Short Term Update - The ridging to our north will strengthen a bit further, resulting in some strengthening of east northeast breezes. Building ridging across Florida will result in gradually strengthening easterly breezes overnight.
Water vapor imagery showing our closed upper level low over southern California this afternoon. Looks like its just about ready to eject northeastward as a 130kt jet max rounds the base of the longwave trough. One area of concern would be the northern Panhandle into Niobrara County tonight as forecast soundings showing possibility of freezing rain/drizzle up there. decided to cancel the winter weather advisories as most of the freezing precip will start at the beginning of the 12Z start time of the Blizzard. Did break out the northern Panhandle and Converse/Niobrara Counties to reflect the freezing rain/drizzle in the blizzard warning.
19/00Z TAF CYCLE Warm front has shifted to the N of the FA.
Models continue to show colder air pushing in from the north, which will result in areas of freezing rain, drizzle, and fog. 20z surface analysis had weak cold front from north central WY into east central SD. Low pressure will developing over eastern CO with a boundary northeast into northern NE. Water vapour had upper low of interest over Baha California with main 130kt jet streak starting ejecting northeast into the desert southwest. Tonight/Thursday, upper low races northeast into southeast NE Thursday and then into the upper Midwest.
A storm system will pass through the region through Thursday bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures and showers and thunderstorms to the area.
/Updated at 0200 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/ Broad deep-layer ridging to our south and southeast will remain the primary feature influencing our forecast through the short- term period. A diffuse warm front positioned roughly along the I-20 corridor will continue to drift further northward this afternoon and evening. A few showers will be possible with a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm with best chances near and north of the warm front. Expect highs this afternoon ranging from the mid 70's north to the low 80's south. Lows will range from the low 60's east to the mid 60's west.
956 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A warm front will traverse the area tonight.
1000 PM PDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A low pressure system off the northern Baja coast will move inland across northern Baja this evening with a second low pressure system remaining across California and Nevada into Thursday.
121 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A warm front will traverse the area early this morning.
Fog remains in areas near the SD border and beefed up mention earlier there and kept fzdz mention though reports from there indicate more fog vs true freezing drizzle. Here the timing of the switch over will be delayed with the potential for liquid precip to persist into the early morning as temps stay up and road surfaces remain above freezing. Mostly snow is expected elsewhere for the late evening into the overnight with the possibility of some freezing drizzle lingering behind the departing snow as ice nucleation departs with saturated near sfc layer persisting. Winds will be diminishing during the day Fri as pressure gradient eases and a cold area of high pressure builds in.
This will occur as a powerful negatively tilted upper low currently approaching the Four Corners emerges above the central High Plains later today. The westerly winds will gradually decrease this evening, then shift to the north and become breezy again late tonight as a cold front moves through. This air will feel notably cooler after the recent mild and moist stretch.
1221 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A warm front will traverse the area tonight.
Since advection fog tends to produce very low ceilings in the valleys which lower to the ground over the higher terrain, the Dense Fog advisory in effect across swrn Nebraska continues until 7 am CDT. The thunderstorm forecast follows their lead with isolated storms forming in the warm sector along and south of an advancing cold front.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 64 72 53 64 / 20 30 100 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 65 72 51 61 / 20 20 100 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 77 64 72 50 61 / 20 30 100 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 61 72 49 59 / 20 10 90 80 20.
(Thursday) As this upper trough finally moves east, dry and warm conditions will follow Thursday. Surface winds Thursday afternoon will initially be from the south; but, an approaching cold front will create winds more from the south west or west, by Thursday afternoon.
/issued 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/ WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has separated in two, w/the southern portion just making landfall at Baja del Norte, leaving progressive SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A secondary cold front late Thu night will then take temps well-blo normal Fri/Sat, w/Sat being the coldest day this forecast.
This will drag the warm front further north, followed by a trailing cold front passing the mid-state late Fri. Ingredients are coming together for line/band of showers/storms overnight well into Fri, until cold frontal passage. with really our northwest having the highest chance. Behind this front, drying occurs as SFC/LL high pressure crosses the OH/TN valleys.
Tonight, a cold front will sweep southeast across Oklahoma and into north Texas. This will bring much cooler weather back into the region.
443 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered over the Gulf of Mexico region with the axis of the ridge extending into the OH Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered over portions of the central Plains with a warm front extending east into the OH Valley region generally north of the OH River. As a result, the warm front will lift further north of the area today and tonight while the cold front begins to approach from the west. In the warm sector, temperatures will remain mild with highs mainly in the 70s today and lows in the low to mid 60s tonight.
We'll see lowering rain chances across the region with drier air cutting underneath the progressive trough and associated Pacific front. Strong mountain wave signature on models pinpoints a max wind across the Guadalupe's, prompting a continuation of the High Wind Warning through the morning and afternoon before tailing off after sunset.
May see another nighttime bout of TSRA tonight from LRD-COT ahead of a cold front, with additional activity through Fri morning possible as the front moves south.
There is nothing there at the moment, but certainly there are clouds and can't rule out something falling out of those clouds so left the low pops that were previously in the forecast. Overnight temperatures will once again run cooler than average, but should trend warmer (about 5 degrees below average). Radar imagery as of 2 PM shows clusters of showers between Boise and McCall drifting to the northwest as moisture wraps around low pressure centered over northwest Nevada. As the sun sets and the low over NW Nevada sinks southward, showers are expected to dissipate.
Upper ridging centered over the eastern Gulf is expected to provide a dry day across the area today.
Inland, temperatures this morning are still in the lower to mid 70s, some 20 degrees above normal. The wind pattern aloft is primarily influenced by the large mid/upper level low over the Southwest U. and the mid/upper level high over the Gulf. For our region, will not see any activity like this, with only low chances of showers this afternoon, along with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 80s.
250 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 The regional synoptic scenario remains under the control of a strong mid level ridge with height values well above normals. However, a weak short wave trough feature, barely recognizable in sfc analysis and model pressure fields, might be able to push a few light and brief showers into the Atlantic coast through mid morning today. Expect continuing moderate east-southeast flow and warmer than normal temperatures. Afternoon highs today will be in the low to mid 80s over the eastern half of SoFlo, while the western half will again hit the upper 80s.
Winds will stay up well into the evening as a polar cold front moves in from the northwest. Lows tonight about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with all but the southeast part of the forecast area freezing.
Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with upper 50s, even low 60s, for tomorrow highs.
211 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 SW CONUS impulse will eject into the Central Plains today, supporting deep low pressure. Secondary cold front slowly settling south into the religion with winds backing NE across NW SD. Forecast soundings still indicate a period of freezing drizzle possible in upslope NE flow, even over the northern Black Hills and adjacent foothills. Main area of lift has shifted out the area there, but there remains the potential for freezing drizzle and ice fog.
The band is associated with a secondary warm front that is located roughly along I-40. Highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
A low pressure system will slowly move through the region bringing cooler and unsettled weather through the remainder of the week. An upper low remains nearly in place over far northwest Nevada this evening with a second circulation over southwest Arizona and ejecting towards the northeast. Still expecting mostly rain in the lower valleys with rain/snow mix on higher valleys above around 5000-5500ft with little or no accumulation. Even as the Arizona circulation exits the area tomorrow afternoon, the airmass will remain somewhat cool, moist and unsettled owing to the low remaining over Nevada. This low will gradually weaken across the Great Basin through late week, with showers continuing over the area.
Kept with the trends from the previous forecast, but it looks like we will be getting close to having make some mention of increasing chances for SHRAs/TSRAs related to the cold front as it approaches from the north.
Little change in forecast reasoning with high pressure governing our sensible weather elements. Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid 70s. Persistence aligned with climatology is expected with a large region of high pressure remaining over the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. High temperatures will average in the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 70s.
High pressure over the western Atlc Basin centered north of FL will flatten while sending a defined ridge along 30N and across the FL panhandle into late week. A little stronger winds will exist south of the ridge axis from Brevard Co to the Treasure Coast.
With deep layer ridging parked over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and South Florida, expect near record high temperatures this afternoon and dry conditions with the Atlantic coast seabreeze moving well inland early this afternoon. Despite Seabreeze collisions near I-75, shower chances remain too low for inclusion due to strong subsidence aloft under high pressure suppressing any shower development this afternoon. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees for areas along and west of Highway 301, the low to mid 80s along the I-95 corridor and the upper 70s to near 80 along the NE FL and SE GA beaches. Low will be in the mid 60s near the coast and the low 60s over portions the Suwannee Valley and interior SE GA.
Inland, temperatures this morning are still in the lower to mid 70s, some 20 degrees above normal. The wind pattern aloft is primarily influenced by the large mid/upper level low over the Southwest U. and the mid/upper level high over the Gulf. For our region, will not see any activity like this, with only low chances of showers this afternoon, along with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 80s. The the mid/upper level low is expected to lift east and northeast tonight, bringing the cold front through the region Friday afternoon and significantly increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Windy conditions are expected today with steep low level lapse rates aiding mixing especially in the higher terrain. High wind criteria was considered, and it can't be ruled out of an isolated gust to 60 today, particularly when the cold front pushed quickly though around 00 UTC and very early evening.
A warm front was located along the Ohio Valley at mid morning.
630 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A warm front will traverse the area early this morning.
The Winter Weather Advisory continues through Noon for Carter and Fallon counties for the potential of freezing drizzle. Given that there are some light returns on radar in the area, this could also be some light freezing drizzle. Expect lows to be in the lower teens to single digits overnight.
Warm air aloft per soundings and model blend grids will keep the chance for freezing rain/drizzle possible across the CWA until mid morning.
/issued 250 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ The regional synoptic scenario remains under the control of a strong mid level ridge with height values well above normals. However, a weak short wave trough feature, barely recognizable in sfc analysis and model pressure fields, might be able to push a few light and brief showers into the Atlantic coast through mid morning today. Expect continuing moderate east-southeast flow and warmer than normal temperatures. Afternoon highs today will be in the low to mid 80s over the eastern half of SoFlo, while the western half will again hit the upper 80s.
Canadian front pushes down through the CWA on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend.
351 AM PDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A low pressure system across California and Nevada will bring numerous showers along and west of the mountains today with decreasing showers tonight and early Friday. A weak low pressure system will move inland across southern California Friday night bringing a slight chance of showers. The weekend will be mostly dry with a warming trend under weak high pressure.
/Friday Night through Thursday Night/ By Friday Night, shower and thunderstorm activity should begin diminishing in coverage and intensity across our southern and eastern half as a cold front will have just about cleared our extreme southeast zones by Friday Evening.
543 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Upper low clearly spinning across NW Arizona early this morning with satellite imagery suggesting intense lift across the 4 Corners region into SW Colorado. Looks a more convective mode setting up with the hi-res models favoring some heavier showers lining up along the high plateaus.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to move east across our area early this morning due to upward forcing ahead an upper level trough over the Central Rockies. The upward forcing wanes today as the trough moves further away. The lift gradually wanes in the afternoon along with a slight drying of the lower level airmass allows the showers and thunderstorms to slowly shift off to the east by evening.