Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level analysis places ridge over the Four Corners region northward into the northern plains. For tonight, a rather quiet night is expected as ridge remains over the area. On Friday, ridge passing over the region will keep temperatures quite warm for this time of year. Modest pressure gradient over the area behind departing high and ahead of strengthening lee trough will bring some windy conditions to parts of the area, especially over the central and eastern parts of the state. A Pacific trough pushes over the Rockies on Saturday, and towards the plains overnight.
The upper low associated with the previous weather system is situated over East TN and there is some moisture wrapping around the backside of it. Look for clouds to clear out slowly from north to south throughout the day, but temperatures are going to be on the cool side with most only making the low 50s.
Some decrease in speeds may also be the result of some decoupling as high pressure builds towards the region. Stumpf (Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021) Tonight through Friday: Pressure gradient remains tight between the strong low to our southeast and the high pressure ridge building in from the northern Plains. A much calmer Friday is in the works as high pressure settles in.
Dry and mostly clear conditions through the short term forecast as ridging aloft builds over the region. High temperatures slightly warmer on Saturday.
123 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys may impact KPGD/KFMY/KRSW terminals through 11Z as scattered SHRA moves across the terminals ahead of a cold front, otherwise VFR is expected at all of the terminals during the next 24 hours as cooler drier air moves into the region. /issued 829 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ Line of strong thunderstorms continues to move through, out ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front will continue to move across the waters tonight, south of Tampa Bay. High pressure builds in over the waters through the upcoming weekend with a breezy north to northeast flow setting up.
For real though, after the marathon of a day yesterday, the next 48 hours will be a vast change as the deep upper trough that brought us all the weather will continue to slowly lift northeast. At the surface a cold front has pushed off the coast and a stiff cool northerly wind will persist keeping temperatures and humidity (dewpoints) well below seasonable for mid-March. Lows will be in the mid 40s and by Saturday highs will climb into the low 60s.
While winds will begin light like last night, an area of low pressure will increasingly encroach from the west leading to an increase in southerly winds. Will start the period off with a stiff south breeze ahead of a weak trough under southwest flow aloft.
325 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Currently, an upper ridge continues to translate east and is centered over the spine of the Rockies. Aloft the upper ridge will work further east and heights will rise giving way to warming temperatures into the mid 50s today.
Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year, but not bad compared to yesterday w/highs in the low/mid 50s and maybe some upper 50s in the far sw corner of MO. Weekend: High pressure will shift east w/low pressure moving into the High Plains. Winds will gradually veer to the southeast and south with warmer temperatures.
327 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 High pressure builds into the area today and remains through the weekend. By mid morning, precipitation is expected to exit the area as the cold front retreats further south. Skies will begin clearing during the day as drier air enters the area and high pressure builds overhead. This afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands, and mid 30s to 40s in the mountains.
This is a good 10 to 15F warmer than yesterday, which seems reasonable given strong WAA at H85 and ample sunshine. Would have gone warmer for forecast max temps, but most spots shouldn't surpass 0C until midday. Forecast ranges from near freezing in the southwest to upper 30s far north central. The heart of the upper ridge passes by early in the day, but WAA at H85 continues into the evening. The first impact will be from a cold front passage Saturday night.
Based on our local tool which uses a climatology of forecast 925 mb temperatures, highs today should reach about 50 areawide except along the lakeshore where an onshore wind will keep highs in the lower 40s. Saturday looks similar to today but a smidge warmer with highs in the lower 50s.
This afternoon the upper level trough was moving over the Tennessee Valley while a ridge was located from the southwest into the northern Plains. The next upper low was over the northwest coast in the eastern Pacific. Winds will also decrease after sunset as the gradient weakens as high pressure builds in from the north. The upper level ridge will move east into the Plains on Saturday warming temperatures back into the 60s after another day of highs in the 50s on Friday.
Mostly clear skies and strong warm air advection should make for a notably warmer night. Depending on how quickly remaining snow melts Friday and early Saturday and how deep mixing is, could see highs trend a few degrees warmer. Given the pattern, trended the forecast slightly warmer and drier than an initial consensus forecast for Saturday.
Cold front currently just north of the area set to push south of the mid-state around sunrise, while closed upper low continues to move off the Plateau. Temps will be significantly cooler behind this front, and winds likely to become gusty.
1044 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A ridge of high pressure at the surface will sink southward through the night allowing a weak southerly flow to develop west of Interstate 29. With southerly flow increasing on Friday temperatures will once again be warmer. Saturday night will be a very mild night with lows in the 40s and winds likely remain up with gusts likely in the 20s just ahead of an incoming trough of low pressure.
348 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Area of high pressure will strengthen while building southeast across the region today running up against the trough of low pressure draped along the east coast. The axis of the high is elongated southwest to northeast and will be positioned over the straits this morning keeping a northeasterly wind going today. Mid level heights will be on the rise today as well as the longwave trough over the east coast shifts east.
Cooler And Drier Today And Into The Weekend. A narrow band of showers from Charlotte Harbor northeast to Sebring will continue to move south and east through sunrise ahead of a cold front which is now moving south through west central Florida early this morning. Cooler and drier air will advect into the area today on a breezy northwest wind flow in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in over the area with pleasant dry weather expected through Saturday. After several days of above normal temperatures, daytime highs today and again on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to around 70 north, to the lower to mid 70s central and south, with lows tonight falling into the upper 40s across the Nature coast, and lower to mid 50s central and south.
A remnant lobe of vorticity in the upper flow west of the exiting trough and some enhanced moisture will make for mostly cloudy stratocu today across the majority of the area. Colder airmass tonight will bring some low 30s to the NE mtns and mid to upper 30s across the remainder of north GA, though not warranting any freeze/frost product issuance since the sub-freezing NE CWA has the program begin after April 15 and the northeast gradient winds should prevent frost settling.
227 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Low pressure moves southeast of the area overnight with breezy conditions continuing into Friday. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the weekend.
As High pressure begins to drift southward into the southern Great Lakes region, winds will also begins decreasing through the morning. This High will dominate the weather pattern across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the upcoming weekend.
Based on our local tool which uses a climatology of forecast 925 mb temperatures, highs today should reach about 50 areawide except along the lakeshore where an onshore wind will keep highs in the lower 40s. Saturday looks similar to today but a smidge warmer with highs in the lower 50s. Borchardt 251 PM CDT The weather pattern looks rather dry and quiet, but warming, through the weekend as a large area of high pressure dominates over the Great Lakes through Saturday night. A very dry airmass accompanying this high will produce low afternoon relative humidity values and sunny skies across the area for Friday and Saturday. This should in turn help temperatures moderate back to near 50 for inland areas on Friday, though cooler weather will be felt near the lake.
For real though, after the marathon of a day yesterday, the next 48 hours will be a vast change as the deep upper trough that brought us all the weather will continue to slowly lift northeast. At the surface a cold front has pushed off the coast and a stiff cool northerly wind will persist keeping temperatures and humidity (dewpoints) well below seasonable for mid-March.
Water vapor imagery show a large trough of low pressure off the West Coast this morning, with the parent low centered around 42. These are the two vort lobes will rotate around the base of the trough and interact with the moisture plume currently focused along the Central Coast, keeping the threat of showers going through the day. At this time, it looks like most areas will stay above freezing, but some of the colder wind sheltered spots could potentially dip to freezing.
944 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 High pressure builds into the area today and remains through the weekend. By mid morning, precipitation is expected to exit the area as the cold front retreats further south. Skies will begin clearing during the day as drier air enters the area and high pressure builds overhead. This afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands, and mid 30s to 40s in the mountains.
* None Area of high pressure will strengthen while building southeast across the region today running up against the trough of low pressure draped along the east coast. The axis of the high is elongated southwest to northeast and will be positioned over the straits this morning keeping a northeasterly wind going today. Mid level heights will be on the rise today as well as the longwave trough over the east coast shifts east.
A cool, stable air mass continues to ooze into the Tennessee Valley region in wake of a fast-moving upper-trough. These clouds and the breezy NW/NNW flow will also help make for a chilly day as temperatures will run as much as 10-15 degrees below normal, peaking in the lower 50s by the afternoon. High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the area from the north tonight into Saturday. Dry air and strong subsidence from the area of high pressure should help to scour out cloud cover by Saturday morning. The end result will be a mostly sunny (and warmer) day, with winds veering to the SE, helping to push highs back into the 60s.
Other issue today will again be elevated nrly winds, but with CAA winding down and high pressure building over the region, speeds are not expected to be as strong as previous days. Areas inland with clear skies were the lower to mid 40s.
820 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Pre-frontal trough has pushed south of our region but the cooler air and lower dewpoints lag behind. The cooler and drier air will continue to move southward today, but we will see a wide range of highs this afternoon. As high pressure sets up to our north overnight and Saturday, winds will gradually veer around to the north, then northeast. Winds will begin to increase again on Saturday as a weak area of low pressure develops near the Bahamas.
Cigs and visibilities are in the MVFR to IFR categories this morning and will remain there as drizzle and low clouds continue to wrap around the backside of our departing low pressure system.
NE winds will increase tonight near the coast after 00z as strong high pressure to the north builds into the area. Mostly clear skies are expected Today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across se GA to the lower 70s north-central FL. Cold front moves southeastward across the area Tonight. Cloudy and cool conditions are anticipated for the weekend with breezy winds from out of the north and northeast as high pressure presses southward from out of the north. A weak trough will move into the region from out of the northeast leading to slight chances for showers extending inland, with the highest chances for precipitation occurring along the coastline.
/issued 400 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021/ Upper ridge over the area today will provide fair weather for the region.
Currently, an upper ridge continues to translate east and is centered over the spine of the Rockies. Aloft the upper ridge will work further east and heights will rise giving way to warming temperatures into the mid 50s today.
602 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 (Today and tonight) As lower level ridge axis settles in over the region today and tonight, winds are expected to be much weaker than previous couple of days.
The potent low pressure system that triggered all of the rain and wind across central Indiana yesterday has pushed farther eastward. GOES16 is depicting the low over Virginia/North Carolina with the bulk of the precipitation shield now east and south of Indiana. Forecast soundings are indicating much drier air in the low levels by daybreak and plenty of sunshine for today. And, with the ridge axis tracking closer to the Midwest, plenty of sunshine will can be expected as well on Saturday.
607 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Cool high pressure centered across much of the Great Plains and central Texas will continue to be the dominant feature for the next 24 hours.
/issued 251 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021/ A progressive upper level ridge will approach from the west today and tonight. As the positively tilted ridge axis gets closer, we'll see scattered mid and high level clouds streaming northwest to southeast with light and variable surface winds this morning, becoming southeast and then gradually veer more southerly by late tonight. Northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge axis will help keep temperatures around 5-10 degrees cooler than normal in most locations. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s by early Saturday, which is only slightly cooler than normal.
416 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 (Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021) Today through Saturday: Fairly strong high pressure will dominate through Saturday, keeping us dry and our skies clear. Highs today will reach the low 50s as ample sunlight allows us to warm up nicely, although there will be the possibility for a lake breeze today, which may hamper highs along the lakeshore.
In the wake of a departing surface cold front to our south, low stratus and patchy drizzle persist over the southern two-thirds of the CWA. However, as high pressure builds south into the Great Lakes, cool/dry air will shunt the lingering cloud cover into the Mid-South by late morning. High temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 50s the afternoon (about 5-8 degrees below normal), and a brisk NE wind will give the air a bit of a chill.
Southwesterly flow ahead of a large scale Pacific trough will advect clouds and moisture across the region today. An upper level jet streak moves over the area tonight with the advancing trough, and becomes aligned with the surface front. The ongoing showers continue through Saturday afternoon as the upper level trough passes over the region. The trough brings cooler air aloft, and this could once again produce an isolated rumble of thunder in some of the showers.
Temperatures as of 4 AM range from the low to mid 30s. However, temperatures this afternoon will still only climb into the low to mid 50s with light easterly winds. Tranquil weather continues into Saturday under sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs reaching near 60 degrees as mid level ridging builds in from the west and winds turn southerly and become a bit breezy.
933 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Cooler and less humid today in wake of last nights cold frontal passage. Cold front from the north will push across the area tonight bringing a surge of gusty northeast winds and coastal showers beginning this evening. Mostly clear skies are expected Today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across se GA to the lower 70s north-central FL. Cold front moves southeastward across the area Tonight. Cloudy and cool conditions are anticipated for the weekend with breezy winds from out of the north and northeast as high pressure presses southward from out of the north. A weak trough will move into the region from out of the northeast leading to slight chances for showers extending inland, with the highest chances for precipitation occurring along the coastline.
307 AM MDT Fri Mar 19 2021 SW flow aloft will be over the area, as a weak lee trough develops by aftn, along the I-25 Corridor. The upper level ridge axis will shift east of the forecast area Saturday with increasing southwest flow aloft. This will bring gusty winds to the mountains, Palmer Divide, and eastern plains, and warmer temperatures to the entire forecast area. The warm and dry weather will come to a fairly quick end as a cold front and short wave trough move in from the west Saturday night.
Look for warm and breezy weather today followed by windy and cooler weather over the weekend.
The dry air in place will make for a very pleasant afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 60s. Some lower 30s and patchy frost will be possible in the typically cooler and more sheltered locations.
Looking at 07z WV satellite reveals an upper low over the western Carolinas, troughing off the Pacific coast, and a subtle ridge in the interim over the Rockies. Temperatures have tumbled into the lower 30s as a result. Rockies upper ridge looks to build eastward Friday into Saturday. As this occurs, Pacific trough will slide eastward, becoming centered over the Great Basin by midday Saturday with a jet streak developing on the downstream side of this feature.
With high pressure at the surface and aloft in control the next 24 to 36 hours expect favorable flying conditions across the region with VFR and light winds prevailing. /issued 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500mb ridge over the Rockies and Desert Southwest to slowly move east over Texas through the weekend. At the surface re-enforcing high pressure noses into region today remaining along the coast and the Western Gulf of Mexico Saturday. Both ridges continue to provide a very dry and stable atmosphere with mean layer 1000-500mb relative humidity to range between 25-40 percent as the dry northerly surface flow keeps dew points well below Deep south Texas norms.
647 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 High pressure builds into the area today and remains through the weekend. By mid morning, precipitation is expected to exit the area as the cold front retreats further south. Skies will begin clearing during the day as drier air enters the area and high pressure builds overhead. This afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands, and mid 30s to 40s in the mountains.
Quiet weather is expected in the short term with a strong ridge over the east coast.
1016 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 High pressure slowly building south across the area bringing with it crystal clear skies to all of Michigan this morning. A large expanse of upper level ridging was across the Plains and moving into the western Great Lakes. Saturday, for the most part, will look a lot like Friday, the only difference will be that the return flow will begin during the afternoon as the ridge axes moves to the east.
We'll see another cool night tonight (lows back down into the 40s), with slightly warmer high tomorrow (upper 60 to around 70 inland. Lows tomorrow night should range from the mid 40s inland to the lower and mid 50s at the coast.
A quiet night was unfolding across the area with expansive high pressure building into the Mississippi River Valley and the Midwest. The high pressure building across the area will result in quiet, seasonable weather, with abundant sunshine and mild temperatures expected. Thankfully the winds will be much lighter as the pressure gradient relaxes with the high. Expect afternoon temperatures to climb into the low to mid 50s, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 20s to near 30.
Current surface analysis shows high pressure to our southeast near the surface, with upper ridging in place at least for today. On Saturday, the tight pressure gradient remains over the region, as the upper trough slowly moves into the Northern Plains, so we can expect the gusty winds to continue during the day, especially over the Coteau as flow from the southwest creates some downslope effect.
as a stacked ridge of high pressure continues to slowly build southward into the Mid-West. The potent low pressure system that triggered all of the rain and wind across central Indiana yesterday has pushed farther eastward. GOES16 is depicting the low over Virginia/North Carolina with the bulk of the precipitation shield now east and south of Indiana. Forecast soundings are indicating much drier air in the low levels by daybreak and plenty of sunshine for today. And, with the ridge axis tracking closer to the Midwest, plenty of sunshine will can be expected as well on Saturday.
Expect cooler conditions with scattered showers and snow levels will generally be between 4 and 5,000 feet. Scattered rain, snow or graupel showers are again possible on Saturday as the main trough moves through.
516 AM MDT Fri Mar 19 2021 Upper ridge moving across the northern plains today with upper trof pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Cold front drops into the state overnight, and with southwest flow aloft increasing moisture into the region, a few showers are possible with the front. A better chance for showers occurs on Saturday with cold air advection instability and the arrival of the 700mb trof. Front moves east Saturday night with upper trof over Montana.
1023 AM EDT Fri Mar 19 2021 The cold front that moved through the local area overnight and this morning is now pushing into south Florida. Noticeably cooler than the last couple of days, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s across the north, and low 80s across the south. Winds will then veer N/NE late this afternoon as high pressure start to build in north of the waters. While winds will not be as strong (still 10-15 mph) as yesterday, drier air behind a cold front and ongoing drier than normal conditions across the area will make for another fire sensitive day.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through Saturday thanks to upper level high pressure. Cooler temperatures will return as a series of weather disturbances bring a chance of showers to the area the first half of the new week. A broad area of high pressure over much of the country will continue to bring temperatures several degrees above average through Saturday.
With cooler moist air pushing in, we'll continue to see showers across the region today. In addition to the higher snowfall rates, the instability could also produce some rumbles of thunder. By the first morning of astronomical Spring, Saturday morning, the low will move onshore into the state of Washington. Eventually, the low will exit the region by Saturday evening. As this low traverses the region, look for similar showery conditions on Saturday.
Otherwise, dry and warmer weather will return. The north to south cold front has began to stall out and is becoming more of a stationary frontal system.
Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures range from the low to mid 60s in the Hill Country to the middle 70s along the Rio Grande and Winter Garden region. Temperatures should quickly fall after sunset, resulting in another chilly start on Saturday morning with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s in the Hill Country to the low to mid 40s elsewhere.