Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Several areas of quasi-linear low-lvl streamline convergence are resulting in narrow lines of shower activity along the NE flank of the low across north/east MS and central AL. As the low shifts slowly northward and instability increases a little today, some of these showers will progress into our area.
Cold front was analyzed by WPC southeast of Nebraska and southwest Iowa as of 3 AM, however effective front appears to be just northwest of the Omaha and Lincoln areas where southerly surface winds and dew points in the 70s resided. Extrapolating movement this morning suggests wave will be east of western Iowa this morning, effectively pushing cold front southeast as well. One caveat is energy currently ejecting through Wyoming into the High Plains is forecast to sweep through eastern Nebraska at time of max heating this afternoon.
/issued 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ Temperatures early this morning range from the low 80s at Memphis International to the low 70s near the Tennessee River. Morning lows will likely be in the low to middle 70s across the majority of the region. but over the next 48 hours we are expecting to see a weak trough dig to our West and gradual weakening of the Bermuda High to our East. A cold front will approach the Midsouth Saturday afternoon. one just to our North in South Central Missouri along the cold front and another beneath the Cutoff low in South Louisiana. A weak broad trough is expected to shift from the Plains across the Mississippi River valley.
Along and ahead of the trough showers and a few thunderstorms are possible, but storms are not expected to be severe. Another round of fog again tonight, then partly sunny with a low chance for showers on Saturday in the wake of the trough and cooler air moving in aloft resulting in some instability. On Saturday similar temperatures expected, maybe a few degrees cooler inland and warmer by the lake due to the northwest winds.
Thunderstorm chances will increase from north to south today as a cold front pushes through the region. The future evolution of this boundary is key to heat headlines today, but given the limited convection remaining to its north, believe it is most likely to wash out and allow temperatures to heat up again today ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will eventually stall just to our southeast as a weak wave of low pressure forms along it. The NAM also appears overdone with the low, and we prefer the more suppressed and weaker look of the ECMWF and UKMET models.
Highest amounts are still forecasted over the lower Acadiana region and central Louisiana.
TFJ Northeast Montana remains under the influence of the weakening upper low, now spinning over Manitoba. With the base of the upper trough to our east, flow aloft will be northwesterly today. With the trough sagging into the upper middle of the Central prairie, the cooler air-mass from the north will bring about another day with below average temperatures for a another mild day. The trough will finally move far enough away to the east Saturday allowing the building ridge in the west to take over our local weather. The hot desert air-mass under the ridge will begin to shift north. But Saturday will likely stay under the cooler air for one more day, just a couple of degrees warmer than Friday.
Hot and humid airmass with approaching cold front should lead to another day of sct to numerous shra/tsra developing. With these warmer temperatures and the lower/mid 70s dewpoints locations will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria.
828 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over the mountains, otherwise dry and warmer through the weekend with a decreasing marine layer as high pressure builds aloft.
1045 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The tail end of a low amplitude mid-level trough of low pressure continued to sweep eastward over the forecast area early this morning. Clouds had largely cleared behind the trough axis allowing for a good look at the Perseid meteor showers. Consequently, cut PoPs back to isolated coverage and confined this activity to the higher terrain along the Continental Divide and the eastern Uinta Mountains. Despite morning sunshine, afternoon highs will be a bit cooler due to the passage of a weak cold front overnight.
Otherwise, cumulus field to build through mid morning before dry air mixes down to the surface dissipating the majority of the lower clouds. Mid level features consisting of high pressure over South Texas and low pressure over Southern Louisiana remain quasi- stationary through Saturday keeping our atmosphere well capped, hot and very dry. With these dangerous temperatures expected again this afternoon we upgraded the excessive heat watch to a warning and kept the heat advisory going for the Lower Valley and coastal regions. Maybe just maybe a few showers may develop well offshore shore along the far western periphery of the upper low in the North Central Gulf.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through the weekend. Water vapor loop shows a trough to our north with an embedded wave over Washington state. Elsewhere sunny, warm and dry, enjoy! The upper trof continues to shift east away from the area early this morning with high pressure building into the western Great Basin. The high gradually shifts east thru the weekend with a continued warming and drying trend for the CWA.
This lower level moisture is evident given the fairly low cloud bases (KALK/KOLS around 2k-3k ft AGL observed this morning), and dewpoints mostly in the mid-upper 60s.
At the lower and mid-levels, our forecast area is caught between High pressure over Bermuda and low pressure over southern Louisiana, with a weak upper level low over Cuba. This pattern leaves us with southerly flow at the lower and mid-levels, allowing for continued heavy moisture over the area. With the low pressure system staying over Louisiana today, convection will be mostly driven by the sea breeze, although the FL Panhandle and southeast AL will still see some influence from the system to our west. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s over southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and in the low 90s everywhere else.
Ridging at all levels over the region in low level southeast steering flow pattern. Seasonally warm and humid daytime temperatures running from the lower to mid 90s while overnight temps remain within a few degrees of normal as well.
Early this morning a broad upper level trough was moving east across the northern and central plains. The surface cold front extended from eastern NE, southwest into northwest KS. There may be enough isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough for periods of showers and elevated thunderstorms to continue into the afternoon hours across portions of northeast and east central KS, which both the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS solutions show. By Saturday morning, a cold front will have pushed southeast of the area near the Oklahoma and Missouri boarder.
937 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The upper trough is enhancing some weak isentropic lift along the I-29 corridor and generating some showers. High pressure and relatively drier air will spread across the region.
An upper level ridge will move over Western Washington today then shift over Eastern Washington on Saturday morning. The ridge will produce sunny and warm weather today and Saturday.
650 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Low pressure will move into east Texas today and will bring more moisture into Arkansas. A cold front will enter northwest Arkansas tonight and as the moisture and low pressure interact with the front showers and thunderstorms will develop. Meanwhile, a cold front will push into the region from the Plains. The front will stall as it encounters a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United States.
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A stronger southward push on the effective cold front has increased convergence and likewise coverage of convection just ahead of the boundary across southern and eastern Kansas. KED Elevated low level moisture transport ahead of the surface cold front will continue to support scattered convection early this morning generally along/east of the Kansas turnpike. Some post-frontal convection is also expected today and early tonight where a pool of 850 mb moisture will reside under the trailing mid-level upper trof. While temperatures will be somewhat cooler or less hot the next couple days, they will still be just a few degrees below mid-August climo.
A quasi-stationary low pressure over Southeast Louisiana will be the dominant weather maker again today. A decent pressure gradient on the eastern side of the low pressure system will produce surface winds of 10-15 mph.
High pressure and a thermal trough will result in sunny and hot conditions today and Saturday.
High pressure to the west with cool front pushed up against the front range of the Rockies. Winds from the north today with cool air advection and surface temperatures in the low 80s.
More tranquil conditions are expected to take over tonight as boundary finally pushes east and cooler drier air works into the region from the north. Temps aloft are expected to chill a touch with passage of the trough, and despite the drying of lower layers, there looks to be just enough heating and perhaps some weak convergence along associated secondary boundary to generate a small bit of surface based instability.
Expect a much cooler day today, with widespread cloud cover and cooler/drier air post frontal air moving across the area. Ketcham A stronger southward push on the effective cold front has increased convergence and likewise coverage of convection just ahead of the boundary across southern and eastern Kansas. KED Elevated low level moisture transport ahead of the surface cold front will continue to support scattered convection early this morning generally along/east of the Kansas turnpike. Some post-frontal convection is also expected today and early tonight where a pool of 850 mb moisture will reside under the trailing mid-level upper trof. While temperatures will be somewhat cooler or less hot the next couple days, they will still be just a few degrees below mid-August climo.
A cold front will arrive after 18Z shifting winds from the northeast and increasing storms across the area. /issued 318 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ Upper trough passing over the Rockies has weakened the persistent ridge extending across the southern half of the country. This trough will bring cooler wx and a good chance of rain for the area. and cooler outflows.
A stout midlevel low pressure system over central Manitoba will steadily shift into far northwest Ontario by this evening.
1147 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Surface map early this morning has a ridge of high pressure extending from KS/MO northward through eastern MN/western WI. plan on overnight lows in the middle 20s to the lower 30s. Looks like mainly rain, but may see some patches of freezing rain as well as temperatures bottom out in the lower/middle 30s.
1110 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure passes well south of the region today.
Cloud cover over south central Kansas should keep temperatures a little cooler today compared to the highs yesterday. Elsewhere will favor the current, warmer than guidance, forecast for highs today given the 24 hour temperature chance of the 900 mb and 850mb temperatures from 00z Wed to 00z Thursday. NAM model soundings kept the depth of the low level moisture shallow enough that drizzle should not be an issue. On Thursday an upper low/trough will move east across Kansas and Oklahoma as our next in a series of upper level waves exits the eastern Pacific and begins to cross Oregon and California. Improving westerly down slope flow during the day will result in deepening the surface lee trough over eastern Colorado.
Late tonight, rain will move spread across the west half of our area as moisture surges northward with a warm front. This front will move north in response to a strengthening low pressure system over west Texas. For Thursday into Thursday night, the main low pressure center will move to the Mid Ms Valley while a negative tilt trough axis focuses strong lift across the Tn Valley Region.
Ceilings will lower across Southwest Montana Thursday morning, with VCSH on the higher terrain around KEKS.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend westward across the Florida peninsula through the rest of today, with a generally light southeast to south wind flow.
The upper level disturbance that is associated with this activity is weakening as it moves into the upper ridge over the area. Cloudy skies and cool ENE flow will keep temps from climbing much and made some adjustments to lower the highs. A low pressure center has developed over South Texas overnight. This will allow the front to begin lifting northward as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Mid-South on Thursday as the upper trof swings into the area. The trof will move the shower and thunderstorm activity east of the CWA by midnight Thursday evening.
High pressure is expected to move through the Ohio Valley tonight. Model data suggest upper trough currently pushing out of the southern Rockies will eject northeast across the local area Thursday night.
126 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Patchy to areas of fog will persist through this morning particularly on the higher terrain due to stratus build down. Otherwise expect clouds to persist today as an upper low pressure system lifts northeast from the Texas Big Bend region.
423 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Over the next several days, the weather will be quiet under high pressure.
Low pressure south of Long Island early this morning will move slowly eastward south of New England today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the region through this weekend.
351 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure continues to move farther offshore and gradually strengthens through tonight.
Currently, Broad upper level ridging across the northern plains with a west to southwest surface flow.
1250 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure will move in today.
301 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure will build toward the region tonight before settling overhead Thursday.
1250 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level low keeps clouds in place today.
The current weather has IA in fairly weak flow ahead of the KS upper low with neutral to weak forcing in minimal warm advection. One of the weak waves embedded within the deep moisture fetch that brought heavy rains to TX overnight will be wrapped northward into the MS Valley as the KS upper low oozes eastward.
The upper ridge over the area is moving east. These showers have struggled to move northeast as the disturbance moves into the ridge and weakens. The main concern for the next few days is the upper low now centered over the OK panhandle. As the upper low begins to trek east tonight the stationary front located from Atlanta to Natchez MS will begin to lift north while low pressure tracks into southern AR by 12z Thursday and then just west of the Mississippi River during the day. On this Thursday the upper low will track to NE Kansas while the area of deep moisture and strong lift slowly treks across the Mid-South.
Elsewhere, high pressure was anchored over the western Caribbean while a positive tilted ridge extended from northern California into Western Wyoming. At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure, extended from south central South Dakota, into the eastern third of Nebraska. For today, the upper level low over New Mexico will lift to the northeast into western and central Kansas. With H85 temps in the high single digits and full sun expected, highs will reach the lower to middle 50s.
Highs this afternoon will remain in the mid to upper 30s with a few spots reaching the low 40s and lows tonight in the lower 30s. A bit warmer still on Thursday with highs 45 to 50.
248 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 The upper low in the lower Rockies will continue to be the main player in the weather for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas for the next couple of days. Some decrease in cloudiness can be expected during the afternoon hours tomorrow, which will allow for much warmer temperatures tomorrow in most spots.
However, we have a fairly mild start to the day out there, so favored forecast highs heavily toward the warmer guidance (bias corrected Euro MOS specifically).
Temperatures did get a couple degrees warmer though with sunshine in a few locales. Modest low level moist advection will continue across the area tonight through Thursday as the main upper low over Colorado and New Mexico moves east across the central and southern Plains. So will reintroduce small PoPs there with a chance of drizzle as far west as Beaumont ridge in the Flint Hills. A vort lobe rotating under the parent upper low looks to move across central into northeast Kansas during Thursday. Some patchy drizzle and fog could redevelop across parts of central and southeast Kansas Thursday night in the wake of the departing upper trof in the easterly component flow at the surface.
Areas of freezing fog may form slick spots on elevated surfaces Wednesday morning. Areas of freezing fog have been observed across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, which may present the possibility of slick spots on elevated surfaces during the morning commute. A broad trough over the southwestern CONUS will lift northeast through the morning and eventually provide steady southwest flow aloft by the afternoon. Overnight lows through this period will also remain above freezing for most areas until late in the weekend. As the southwestern trough lifts northeast, broad ascent will accompany low level moisture transport, sufficient for a chance of rain showers across central Missouri.
it will take a while for the low clouds and fog to erode away Thu morning. Mid level clouds will spread in just as the low clouds are dissipating, so not a lot of sunshine expected, especially toward the IL border. Warmer air will be working into southern WI ahead of the approaching system, so highs in the lower 40s are expected.
312 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level low situated along the front range with multiple embedded vort maxes.
340 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over ohio and into pennsylvania tonight.
103 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A weak cold front in the forecast area will be south of the area tonight. Ridging will extend through the region in the wake of the front tonight and Thursday.
302 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 The potential for drizzle and freezing drizzle exists tonight before high pressure builds in later on Thursday.
300 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track out to sea tonight.
At the surface, a lee trough will develop, which will result in increasing westerly winds and downslope warming, allowing temperatures tomorrow to climb roughly 10 degrees above normal areawide, in the 60s and 70s for most locations.
1258 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A cold front will slide slowly south across South Carolina late this afternoon, reaching the southern Savannah River Valley tonight. Weak high pressure will build across the region tonight.
The upper low associated with the cloud cover continues a slow northeastward trek across the Plains Region. with any precipitation focused east of the low away from the CWA. upper low continues to trek eastward slowly. with a lee-side trough coming off the Front Range in tandem. Increased cloud cover in eastern zones due to proximity to upper low will help in keeping temps up overnight. as upper low continues its slow departure eastward thru the day. models shift weak H5 ridge off the Front Range.
However, IFR conditions will return tonight as a warm front moves into the state and precipitation chances increase again. (ISSUED 517 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 ) IFR conditions will be prevalent through the period, with conditions deteriorating this evening, as a warm front moves into the state. Upper low over the desert southwest will move northeastward and off the front range of the Rockies later today and tonight, and this will send the stalled front back to the north a bit.
An upper level low over the southern Rockies early this morning is forecast to move into the central PLains today.
The only exception is for parts of Northwest Montana near the Idaho border and in central Idaho where light rain/freezing rain is expected to persist through the afternoon. Also due to the recent cold temperatures, many subsurface temperatures are below freezing which will cause refreezing in many areas that received precipitation today as the sun sets this evening.
/issued 414 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low currently over northeast New Mexico will lift northeast into Kansas by this evening, with associated trough axis translating east across the area overnight. Temperatures will be warmer today, with near seasonal afternoon highs in the mid and upper 50s. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area tonight, with lows in the lower 40s.
and rain mentions in the TAFs have been inserted accordingly with the lowest POPs expected across the lower Acadiana terminals. The upper low responsible for pulling the gulf and Pacific moisture across the region is located in the SW States and NW Mexico. Lift will increase as the surface and upper lows draw closer which will increase pops, mainly late tonight. The low will continue northeast Thursday pulling the frontal boundary eastward.
/issued 331 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ At 230 am, the remaining light rain showers were moving northward into the panhandle following a vort lobe pivoting north around an upper low centered over nrn NM/srn CO. The broad upper-low/trough will translate slowly northeast today across West Texas and the southern plains. The airmass will be drying out and large-scale upward motion will be very weak so we don't expect any more showers despite the trough crossing overhead. Warmer temperatures will accompany the developing southwest breezes and highs this afternoon should be mainly in the middle to upper 50s. A progressive series of upper level troughs will affect the area through the week ahead. Unfortunately, we will see mostly wind with little precipitation from the trough train. Thursday will begin to see the increased surface winds despite short wave ridging aloft.
Westerly wind direction will provide some downslope warming component so leaned temps towards the warmer side of guidance.
232 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure pushes into the region tonight.
Despite increasing mid and upper level clouds, thinking patchy dense fog is possible through mid to late morning over far east/southeast KS, in close proximity to low-level ridge axis and moist low-levels.
Expanse/timing of the cloud deck and possible fog, as dewpoints rise into the low 30s, in question to the west and north during daylight hours. Nonetheless will see increasing clouds during the daytime tomorrow though highs still expected to be in the low and mid 30s. Active weather through most of the period as a series of western waves, upper lows propagate through the forecast area. Initially moisture advection shallow leading to the potential for drizzle or freezing drizzle dependent on time of day. A better chance for either rain/freezing rain or snow this weekend as deeper saturation occurs through the column.
The caveat is if this low stratus deck clears the area, which appears to be doing so from current IR satellite trajectory. Especially with the stratus deck holding temperatures up slightly warmer than previously anticipated.