Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND NWRN ARKANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HANGS ON FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WHILE A RATHER DEEP TROUGH (FOR SUMMER) OCCUPIES THE CENTRAL U.
AS A COLD FRONT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. COOLER WEATHER TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT) A STOUT COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z, THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM ITS PARENT CYCLONE OVER SRN MN SEWD THROUGH ERN IA, THEN CURVED BACK SWWD THROUGH MO AND INTO SERN KS AND NRN OK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP PV ANALYSES DEPICT A SECONDARY VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.
241 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 ONLY REAL ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHRA WITH THE UPPER LOW. BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GETTING INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. READINGS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (3-5 STD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL) WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MN. MODEL DATA INDICATES THE LOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A W/SW WIND GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE WEST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS AND WIND WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FRI LOOKS EVEN WARMER THAN THU AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA THAN INTO OUR MN FA. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP ALL PCPN ACROSS WESTERN ND NEAR THE LOW FRI EVENING WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO OUR WESTERN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND THE LOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION EASTWARD.
227 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2015 RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS GENERALLY FROM KMCK TO KGLD COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
40 WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. USED THE HIGH RES MODELS TO BRING SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINING SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z AND THUNDER MAINLY AFTER 11Z.
314 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE CONUS WAS A LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. DESPITE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT AS DRY. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DIGS SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY BEGIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 20 HOURS OR SO AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR FLORIDA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER IL AND SE MO WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE TAIL END OF A TROF THAT EXTENDS FM THE UPR MIDWEST SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED NW OF THE REGION.
143 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
317 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO JUST EAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
604 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
The occurrence of periods of showers and thunderstorms through tonight remains the primary near term focus as a seasonally strong mid level trough and cold front make passage. Waves of energy rotating through the base of the trough south of this low will combine with a passing cold front to result in periods of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will diminish from west to east tonight as the cold front passes east of the area.
Despite direct insolation this afternoon, we will only see temperatures top out in the lower to mid 70s given the fairly anomalously cool airmass that pushed in behind this deep trough. That said, highs Thursday will still be 5 to 7 degrees below the average for the date with temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 80s, as surface winds will continue to come from the southeast around the modifying cool airmass.
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF LINCOLN. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS EASTERN IL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EJECT EAST FROM IA/MO ACROSS IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING MORE LIFT AND LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN IL. COOLER HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM NEAR 70F AT GALESBURG TO LOWER 80S NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT IN SOUTHEAST LAWRENCE COUNTY. COLD FRONT SHOULD STEADILY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
311 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER EASTER COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/ARW/NMM ACTUALLY SHOW BETTER SIGNAL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY JET STREAK.
338 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 TONIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. MINIMUMS SUN NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SLOWER/DEEPER/CLOSED LOW ECMWF AND THE WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. BOTH MODELS ALLOW COLD AIR TO MOVE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE MID MISS VLY WITH NEWD CURVE TO UPPER SPEED MAX. LOCALLY WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WATERS TENDS TO DRAW THESE LOWS CLOSER AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE WILL BRING A COLDER AIRMASS TO UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN USHER IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WITH A FAIRLY DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S CURRENTLY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
MAINLY WITH THE UPSLOPE ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE PINE RIDGE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SUB-ZERO READINGS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS LARAMIE.
150 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
1123 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
Preceeding the front by a few hours will be a pre- frontal trough with a windshift to the northwest around 10 kts.
450 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OVER AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS A FAST WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
317 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 The much advertised strong cold front is surging through western Kansas early this afternoon, likely entering northeast Oklahoma by mid to late evening and clearing southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas by daybreak tomorrow.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
The main topic of interest in the short term continues to be the strong cold front this weekend.
253 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WITH AN ASSOCIATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT AT BEST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A COOLER DAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
138 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS EVENING.
This low is expected to take a St Louis to Indianapolis to Cleveland track over the course of the day, and will sweep a strong cold front through the region during the late morning to late afternoon hours. For areas west of I-65, the highest chances will be mid-morning to early/mid afternoon, while the eastern areas along the I-75 corridor will see the greatest chances early to late afternoon.
OUR BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
Strong cold front that is currently dropping into northeast CO will enter the area around midnight and quickly push through overnight.
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 10/LOW TEENS FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER REMAINING SNOWPACK WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEARING I-70 IN EASTERN CO WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z TO 04Z. /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING UNTIL A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL MONITOR WARMING TREND TO SEE IF TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
High pressure north of the region will continue to funnel dry air into the region keeping our skies clear into this evening. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s north of Albany to the lower 60s along the Gulf Coast.
1201 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 THE 07Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER THERMAL BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THAT AMOUNT IS ON THE HIGH END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE CREST OF THE WESTERN RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
349 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AS WELL WITH COLDER AIR SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE ALONG A JUNO TO HARPER TO LLANO LINE AROUND 6 AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS BY NOON. EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL PLUNGE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NRN MO. MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES OVER SOUTHEAST KS FOR AT LEAST A SOLID LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH AND FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE MID-LOW LAYERS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS BY SAT MORNING AND THE LOWER 30S FOR REST OF SOUTHERN KS. MAX TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL KS AND THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
Isentropic lift ahead of the upper level trough is in fuel swing as low and mid-level cloud cover is noted spreading across Nebraska into northern Missouri already this morning. Currently, thoughts are that north central to northeast Missouri will likely see the highest accumulations by Saturday morning with up to two inches possible.
Overall rates should be light to moderate, and with air temperatures remaining at or slightly above freezing during the majority of snowfall and physical ground surfaces well above freezing, some degree of melting will occur. Furthermore, very strong wind speeds will exist through the lower tropopause, fracturing snow crystals and reducing some accumulation. As the cold front moves through, northwest winds will become gusty, with speeds of 20-30kts at times.
The cold front is still expected to move into the Big Country right around midnight tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will build overhead this weekend allowing for dry conditions with occasional high/mid level clouds.
1253 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
/ISSUED 415 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ WITH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE.
1202 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
244 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday night) The primary forecast issues through Saturday are related to an approaching low pressure system: extent of snowfall late tonight and tomorrow morning, non-diurnal temperatures on Saturday, strong winds on Saturday, and cold temperatures on Saturday night. Strong CAA on the back side of the aforementioned low pressure system yields a non-diurnal temperature trend on Saturday.
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE AND COPIOUS SUNSHINE HAVE PUSHED RH VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
128 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS EVENING.
335 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH MEAN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP NE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. 77 WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) WILL KEEP NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND N GEORGIA COOLER TONIGHT THAN THE REST OF NW ALABAMA. THUS, COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE AL/N GA AGAIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY, BUT MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SATURATE MORE THAN 2K-5KFT OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND APPROACH OF TROUGH AXIS, NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WHILE CLOUDS CLEAR AND STRONG MOMENTUM MIXING TAKES PLACE AS THE COLD CP 1030 MB HIGH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS RIDGE WAS BETWEEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER WYOMING. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER HUDSON BAY. WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. THE LOW OVER WYOMING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST. TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KTS WITH 40 TO 45KT GUSTS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR KGUY. /ISSUED 401 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
Strong cold front will move through all TAF sites from 06z-10z. Strong cold front that is currently dropping into northeast CO will enter the area around midnight and quickly push through overnight.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT REMAINING 5-10 KNOTS AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT BACK THE WARMER DEW POINTS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST. AND MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. BUT WILL BLEND IN A BIT OF THE LOWER MET TEMPS FOR MINS TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WINDS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
203 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 Strong Gusty southerly winds had all but moved the area of high pressure that was over the region this morning, to the east of the area. Winds were gusting at times from 30 to 40mph and will continue into this afternoon and early evening in advance of a cold front that will move through the region late this evening. The gusty southerly winds in advance of the front will quickly be replaced by gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front.
239 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OVER AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS A FAST WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE A BIT OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH FOR SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY.
1207 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A TASTE OF WINTER TO CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. /TODAY/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY TODAY.
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME ON SATURDAY AS THE ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN WI AND NERN IA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGHS SATURDAY LIKELY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP WILL END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WHILE GFS NOT AS DRASTIC BUT STILL INDICATING TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN SEEN RECENTLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT A FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE AND COPIOUS SUNSHINE HAVE PUSHED RH VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
A strong cold front is currently pushing south across west central Kansas this afternoon, passing through Scott City and Tribune in the last hour.
Plan on seasonable temperatures in the low/mid 50s with sunny skies and overall light winds. Upper-level impulse coming across the Pacific Northwest will become our main weather player, as it emerges from the northern Rockies later today and develops a surface cyclone over the Panhandle region. Trailing cold front will cross central Kentucky around midday, with best precip chances along and behind the front in a typical anafront configuration.
310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SKIES CLEAR ACOSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SE BREEZE OVERNIGHT AROUND BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE SHIFTING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING FOR A RUSH OF MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE LEADING EDGE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NW KS. FREEZING TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ACHIEVED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
247 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight. Meanwhile low pressure will form over the southern Plains as a mid level system digs ESE from the northern Rockies into the Plains upon strong jet stream energy from west Canada. By 12z Sat, the upper trof will extend south from the Upper Midwest with low pressure near KSTL.