Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
857 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Gusty northwest winds are expected to gradually subside this evening as dry high pressure builds in tonight. Combined with clear skies and decoupled winds, the going forecast (which trends toward the cooler guidance) seems to be right on track. So, blended in some cooler MOS numbers with NBM. Right now it appears the highest chances for severe weather Saturday evening/night would be over parts of western and southern SD.
656 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns through Saturday with crossing low pressure. Surface warm front has crossed most of the area, evident by the increasing surface dewpoints. Showers and thunderstorms are likely again Saturday as the slow- moving sfc cold front crossed the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Hot and humid conditions are occuring this afternoon as a mid and upper level ridge of high pressure has built into the region. As of 2 PM, temperatures over most locations were in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the 98 to 106 degree range. Dew points are expected to decrease a few degrees which should allow slightly cooler lows than what we saw this morning. Nevertheless, we still expect a corridor of middle 70s for lows up along the Highway 54 corridor. Hot temperatures and dry conditions are again on tap for Saturday as the upper level ridge holds strong.
944 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns through Saturday with crossing low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms are likely again Saturday as the slow- moving sfc cold front crossed the Upper Ohio Valley region.
1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Currently - Deep layered ridging is setup over Florida and surrounding waters. Surface conditions are fairly muggy with dew points creeping above 75 and temperatures slowly falling through the lower 80s. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows only a bit lower, remaining in the lower 80s due to the steady easterly breeze. A ridge across florida will maintain moderate easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Tulsa will likely stay in the lower 70s thanks to the urban heat island effect. All in all, expect a slightly cooler night with mostly clear skies.
/issued 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Potential Tropical Cyclone Three located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico continues to head north.
637 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A warm front pushing across the area will result in increased humidity into Saturday. An upper level trough will swing in from the northwest, pushing a cold front down into the state. Expecting to see coverage become more widespread later this evening and into tonight as dewpoints increase through the 60s in conjunction with passage of a warm front. Have held onto the likely PoPs over most/all of the CWA for the afternoon and early evening as a potent trough moves in from the west during peak heating.
/issued 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ The subtropical ridge will remain centered over the southwestern U. Since our region has been on the eastern periphery of this ridge, we have not been subjected to the extreme heat which states in the 4-Corners region have been dealing with. However, this will change heading into this weekend as the upper lvl ridge broadens and mid-level thicknesses increase overhead.
/issued 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ Fairly non-contentious weather continues today and tonight with upper ridge axis just north but very much in control over the Texas South Plains area with it's signature deep sinking motion. Daytime highs appear another degree or so warmer Saturday than recent days, with a mild night tonight again as well.
A lee trough off the Rockies will bring warm and dry air close to the surface while an approaching cold front brings gusty northwesterly winds along with increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across Eastern Montana.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST Tonight and Saturday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery showed the circulation associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC Three) in the northern Gulf tracking north toward the southeast Louisiana coast.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances over inland SW Florida along a Gulf breeze. High pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to extend into the Florid Peninsula through Saturday, as a disturbance over the Western Atlantic waters moves northward into the Gulf Coast States. With the dew points running in the lower to mid 70s, the feel like temperatures for late tonight into early Saturday morning will be in the mid to upper 70s over most areas, except lower to mid 80s east coast metro areas. The dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s over South Florida on Saturday allowing for the heat indices to get up into the lower to mid 100s, except around 100 over the east coast metro areas.
1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Gusty northwest winds are expected to gradually subside this evening as dry high pressure builds in tonight. Combined with clear skies and decoupled winds, the going forecast (which trends toward the cooler guidance) seems to be right on track. So, blended in some cooler MOS numbers with NBM. Right now it appears the highest chances for severe weather Saturday evening/night would be over parts of western and southern SD. Low pressure will be moving across eastern SD and into MN on Sunday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the morning hours. Northwest winds will be rather breezy and gusty as well as cooler air begins moving in.
Unlike the past few days, dewpoints today have been notably cooler, with temperatures in the 40s to 50s, making the summer heat feel rather bearable. Thus, given that radiational heating will be slightly dampened, have afternoon highs a touch cooler, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Should see dry conditions gradually return to the region by Sunday evening, as the upper level trough and sfc cold front swing through the Northern Great Plains.
First, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC 3), which may become Tropical Storm Claudette, is producing heavy rainfall, gusty wind, and a tornado threat along the LA/MS/AL Gulf Coast.
Tonight, a cold front will drop through the region after midnight, bringing some showers through portions of central and eastern Wisconsin Saturday morning. The CAA will build high pressure back into the region, quickly clearing out skies for the latter part of the morning and afternoon. The cooler air also means a drop in high temperatures, with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s for Saturday.
Cloud cover will increase ahead of a fast moving cold front that will traverse the region through the evening hours. The H5 flow aloft highlights an upper low situated over the Hudson Bay region. A strong, but slow moving, cold front brings rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area Saturday night through much of the day on Sunday. Much cooler air follows, with lows Sunday night falling into the upper 30s along the International Border, and into the lower to middle 40s elsewhere.
Stationary frontal boundary that was draped across the region has since pushed further east into Colorado, with high pressure building off the Pacific Northwest. As we transition into the weekend, an additional cold frontal boundary is expected to start digging southward across the CWA before becoming stationary once again across the region. After the frontal passage, should start to see conditions calming down with daytime highs on Sunday in the low to mid-70s.
A cold front will push southward across Kansas on Sunday in the wake of this upper level wave.
304 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Temperatures today will be 2-3 degrees cooler than yesterday and dew points a few degrees cooler. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices of 95-105.
Low pressure center over northern Carbon County this morning with a stationary front from Colorado Springs to Laramie to the low and then west to northern Utah. Another dry cold front pushing in from the north and northeast. looking at upper 50s/low 60 dewpoints in the Panhandle for much of the day ahead of that approaching dry cold front.
The upper high remains in control of the southwestern states with very warm mid and upper level air sprawled east across the central and southern Plains. Some high cloud will spill over the ridge overnight though winds looks a bit weaker and expect lows slightly slower as a result. A longer wavelength trough digs into the northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday though some MLCIN continues to be in place as the associated cold front moves in.
Slightly cooler airmass advects into the forecast area and high temperatures are expected to be cooler. Increasing theta-e advection over the warm front coupled with increasing mid-level kinematic support should fuel widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning hours on Sunday.
Further southeast, highs will be held in the lower 80s for the most part (upper 70s atop Lookout Mtn).
in advance of an approaching warm frontal system. The approaching system will bring warm frontal passage across the area from late afternoon into the early evening, along with an increasing chance for a widespread wetting to soaking rainfall for the area. High temperatures today should reach from the middle 70s in northcentral Mn to the lower 80 in southeastern ND, under mainly sunny conditions. with cold frontal passage occurring through the forenoon Sunday, with winds turning from the northwest and increasing at 15 gusting 25 mph on Sunday afternoon.
An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest, with a weak upper level low across Central Texas.
Weak high pressure over SETX Saturday weakening as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 moves into SE Louisiana.
A cold front will be approaching from the northwest as well. That is when the cold front begins to drop southward into northern Wyoming and showers become a bit more widespread. The aforementioned cold front will then drop southward through the area, before stalling near the continental Divide. Cooler weather will move into areas north of the front and bring some relief from the heat and critical fire weather, with some areas 20 to as much as 30 degrees cooler than on Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely again Saturday as the slow- moving sfc cold front crossed the Upper Ohio Valley region.
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Summary: Much needed widespread rain is expected for Sunday with cooler temperatures to follow behind this system. The region was sandwiched between cold fronts this afternoon, one just north of the International Border with another across central Wisconsin into far southern Minnesota. High pressure moves through for Saturday bringing near normal temperatures and light winds under partly to mostly sunny skies. With the trough axis moving overhead with this system, plenty of lift will be available for the development of widespread showers and some embedded thunder on Sunday.
/issued 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ Fairly non-contentious weather continues today and tonight with upper ridge axis just north but very much in control over the Texas South Plains area with it's signature deep sinking motion. Daytime highs appear another degree or so warmer Saturday than recent days, with a mild night tonight again as well. By Sunday afternoon, the upper high will be centered over southern Arizona, with upper troughing overspreading the north-central CONUS.
Regarding severe thunderstorm watch 283, ongoing convection in the vicinity of STJ remains in an area of strong CAPE, modest shear, and decent convergence on the nose of the low-level jet. While that activity hasn't gotten more robust, likely due to warm air aloft inhibiting stronger updrafts, parameters are close enough to keep the watch going, despite the lower overall risk compared to when the watch was issued. Showers and storms ongoing across the northern half of the forecast area early this morning are expected to weaken within a few hours of sunrise as the low-level jet weakens.
Then the upper trough over British Columbia will drop through Montana late today through Sunday. This will push a cold front through the region this evening. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler Sunday, with max highs struggling to get out of the upper 60s and lower 70s. BT Temperatures will warm each day to the middle of the week as ridging builds into the Rockies.
3 micron water vapor shows slightly more subsident/warmer plume retrograding through southern Oklahoma.
An associated warm frontal boundary will generate additional showers. Trough across the eastern CONUS deepens, with ridging upstream amplifying, resulting in a dry northwest flow regime. Hot air returns for the latter half of the work week with a slight uptick in humidity but nothing too stifling, with the ridge to the west migrating overhead and flattening resulting in light zonal flow. Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG High pressure, clear skies and light winds will prevail through the next 6 hours.
451 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Mean-layer ridging remains in effect for the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. CIMSS mean-layer analyses center a solid anticyclone over Cuba, and this feature will move very little over the next few days.
342 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The upper ridge persists across the southwest CONUS this morning with a stationary surface boundary draped from southwest Kansas into northeast Kansas and extending into southern Wisconsin. Today should be slightly cooler than the past few days thanks to cooler 850mb temps, although it will still feel plenty hot with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 100 degrees. Precipitation exits the area Sunday morning as a stronger cold front approaches from the northwest. The front is progged to move through the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening as a longwave trough ejects across the Plains.
230 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 An upper level short wave trough is expected to move southeast from Colorado into western Kansas late this afternoon and this evening. On Sunday, the models do agree that another short wave trough will move this way in the northwest flow. But they do not agree on the timing of the cold front moving through. The GFS model is the most agressive with bringing the cold front through and it also has the most precipitation with it. Highs on Sunday could be in the 100 to 106 degree range across the southeast half of the area as long as the cold front holds off until later in the afternoon.
A cold front will slowly move into the area late Saturday afternoon and bring welcomed relief to the temperatures and low RH values. The front briefly stalls along the Continental Divide early Sunday, while midlevel troughing to the north of it bringing a chance for showers. The trailing edge of the trough will sweep southeast across western WY in the afternoon, helping push the front through the remainder of the state in the evening. Still expecting a cold night areawide Sunday night, with lows in the 40s for most areas, with the Parks dropping to near freezing.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into early Saturday morning as a 500mb low across east Texas and a 500mb ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across southwest Texas. /issued 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Potential Tropical Cyclone Three located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico continues to head north.
Hot and humid conditions are occuring this afternoon as a mid and upper level ridge of high pressure has built into the region. As of 2 PM, temperatures over most locations were in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the 98 to 106 degree range. Dew points are expected to decrease a few degrees which should allow slightly cooler lows than what we saw this morning. Nevertheless, we still expect a corridor of middle 70s for lows up along the Highway 54 corridor. Hot temperatures and dry conditions are again on tap for Saturday as the upper level ridge holds strong. One more day of hot weather is expected for Sunday with good confidence that high temperatures will again be in the lower to middle 90s.
The main cold front will drop into our northern zones at the same time with lower chances for isolated showers/storms. Chances for showers/storms increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a warm advection regime materializes, sending the frontal boundary back north in advance of a digging north-central longwave trough.
The forecast area will be sandwiched between a northern stream trough moving into the Ohio Valley and a tropical system moving onshore to the central Gulf Coast.
1216 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 (This evening through Saturday) The upper level ridge will remain anchored near the Four Corners region through Saturday.
Then we await the arrival of the highly advertised opportunity for measurable precipitation, which could bring precipitation amounts eclipsing values many sites haven't seen in over three weeks. Although the thunderstorms look to be primarily elevated in nature, we could see a few storms flare up over southern MN on Sunday afternoon/evening ahead of the cold front where 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear and around 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE are progged. With the passage of a strong cold front and CAA working into the region by Sunday evening, low temperatures will fall to readings we haven't seen since June 1st.
On Sunday afternoon, more of the same but with upper flow switching to the west and southwest as a trough digs in over the Plains. Perturbation ahead of the trough may help things fire up as well.
The stubborn subtropical ridge remains anchored out west and has been responsible for record heat in the Desert Southwest. This trough is also serving to drive newly named Tropical Storm Claudette, currently located near New Orleans, to the northeast today. Compressional heating will help temperatures warm up into the low/mid 90s, with the warmest temperatures again in northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. The forecast is dry for Sunday night, but a few warm advection showers wouldn't be a big surprise in the open warm sector, owing to the development of a southwesterly low-level jet and height falls downstream of deep trough digging over the central CONUS.
A southwest flow aloft tonight will transition to a northwest flow on Saturday as an upper trough moves through southern Canada and into Montana.
At the surface, calm or light northerly winds prevailed through Upper Michigan as high pressure over the Dakotas builds toward the region and weak low pressure over central WI slides to the east. Temps will only range from around 60 near Lake Superior to the low to mid 70s near the WI border. Tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temps to drop into the low/mid 40s inland and to around 50 near the Great Lakes. Broad troughing pivoting through north-central Canada, coupled with favorable jet dynamics will enable surface cyclogenesis to occur just to our south.
238 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Today the subtropical ridge will remain across AZ with a nely 5h winds and little change into 85h-7h temp profile, including the 5h heights.
1146 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A warm front pushing across central PA will result in increased humidity into the first half of the weekend. An upper level trough will swing in from the northwest Saturday afternoon, pushing a cold front down into the state.
The record-producing high pressure cell over the southwestern United States will continue a slow weakening trend and progression to the south.
Latest satellite imagery shows high cirrus associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC3) streaming into northeast MS this afternoon. The official NHC forecast still maintains the cyclone track south and east of our area. To our north and west, while PTC3 tracks across the south, upper ridging will retreat west and an upper trough will dive south across the Central Plains.
Otherwise, look for high pressure to build in across the area later tonight through Saturday, with the next chance of precipitation looking to hold off until Sunday. By Sunday morning, showers and a few thunderstorms will have developed across western MN as an upper-level trough and upstream jetstreak impinge the Northern Plains. Guidance shows precipitation spreading and shifting eastward during Sunday as the upper-level trough continues east while deepening. Though, models have trended towards a less amplified, broad trough; the GFS now more in line with the ECMWF and GEM. The aforementioned low track means that the warm front will be draped across extreme southern MN during early Sunday and then migrate through central WI as the low tracks northeast Sunday afternoon.
A stout mid level ridge is centered over Arizona at this time but its influence is still being felt across Texas with above normal temperatures. We'll see temperatures climb a few degrees on Sunday as flow above the surface becomes more southwesterly and dewpoints will also creep back up into the lower 70s east of I-35. Before those changes arrive, we'll have to contend with yet another hot day on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 90s to the lower triple digits. Areas along and west of US-281 will have the highest probability of exceeding 100 degrees given slightly drier air and a more veered low-level wind.
335 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is currently positioned over the north central Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to move north-northeast today, then turn to east-northeast later this weekend as it moves inland. High pressure east of Florida and Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in the north central Gulf of Mexico are setting up southeasterly and southerly flow over the coastal waters today. As the tropical system moves north this weekend, high pressure will build back into the eastern Gulf, with southwest to south west winds holding through the first half of the week.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 3 was located near the Louisiana coastline early this morning, and this system will move inland this morning and then move northeastward across the Southeast through the period. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
CAA associated with a wave passing to our northeast during the overnight hours will keep highs today slightly cooler than the last couple of days (and closer to average), reaching into the 80s. Shower and storm chances continue Sunday, as the main upper trough and surface cold front are expected to move through the area by Sunday afternoon/early evening. To start the week, much cooler temperatures will move into the area under the influence of high pressure sliding in from Canada, CAA, and north/northwesterly flow building in.
251 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Overall today will be another quiet day as an upper high continues to dominate the southwestern US. The will allow for terrain induced convection to develop across Colorado and northern New Mexico and should also weaken the upper high slightly.
253 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The hot weather will continue through this weekend, though it will be "less hot" today across the area as mid level ridge continues to move back west for a few days.
High Fire Danger Expected This Afternoon and Evening for Much Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected today before a cold front tracks across the region and turns winds to the northwest.
Some cooler temperatures are expected behind the Sunday system, but we will return to a more summery pattern for mid to late week. Dry conditions, along with lighter winds, are expected today as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A mix of sun and clouds is anticipated, with highs in the lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south. 50 inches of rainfall Sunday and Sunday night, with the highest amounts possible over northwest Wisconsin.