Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Relatively cooler conditions set in through the weekend, although above normal temperatures are expected to continue before more seasonal air arrives to start the next work week. The upper air pattern features broad northwesterly flow across the northern half of the CONUS with the ridge firmly in place over the Desert Southwest.
310 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 At 08Z (2 AM) upper-level water vapor imagery indicated a compact upper low over southern New Mexico, promoting a few clouds to our southeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone was positioned over the NM/OK/TX state lines. This cyclone is progged to push south and east today, tightening the surface pressure gradient and bringing breezy westerly winds to the FA. A cold front will push into the area late this afternoon, bringing breezy northerly winds tonight. Behind the front, we will see temperatures fall into the 30s and low 40s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than this morning. GKendrick Following departure to the east early Saturday of the weak upper level low pressure system mentioned above, we will be eyeing to the west a pair of closed lows approaching the area.
421 AM PST Fri Dec 3 2021 Cooler temperatures are expected through Saturday, with night and morning low clouds and fog extending to the valleys.
At the surface, high pressure is currently centered over NE Montana/southern Sask. This high will slowly slide east later tonight, shifting surface winds out of the east-southeast. The primary weather concern over the next 24 hours is the possibility of low stratus, drizzle, and/or fog across the area resulting from broad, low-level upslope flow as the high shifts to our east. Looking further upstream, an upper trough axis and associated strong vort max is centered off the coast of British Columbia.
Lows tonight should generally range from 50-55 degrees across almost all of the area, except a little warmer near the immediate coast and beaches. On Saturday, after the fog burns off by mid morning, expect partly cloudy skies (but with clouds increasing in coverage through the day, especially over western zones) and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the entire area.
/issued 310 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021/ At 08Z (2 AM) upper-level water vapor imagery indicated a compact upper low over southern New Mexico, promoting a few clouds to our southeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone was positioned over the NM/OK/TX state lines. This cyclone is progged to push south and east today, tightening the surface pressure gradient and bringing breezy westerly winds to the FA. A cold front will push into the area late this afternoon, bringing breezy northerly winds tonight. Behind the front, we will see temperatures fall into the 30s and low 40s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than this morning. GKendrick Following departure to the east early Saturday of the weak upper level low pressure system mentioned above, we will be eyeing to the west a pair of closed lows approaching the area.
High pressure builds in from the northwest today bringing dry but cooler conditions. Winds will become breezy out of the southeast Saturday afternoon on the edges of the aforementioned warm front. The period begins Saturday night with an area of low pressure over the CWA with WAA snow mostly impacting most of ND.
High pressure over the Gulf Coast will glide eastward. As it does so, it will strengthen and slowly merge with the established ridge over the North Atlantic.
Cooler temperatures to start the weekend after an unseasonably mild day today.
Skies have gone mostly sunny in the wake of the trough. Temperatures are even a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, with most locations currently sitting in the mid to upper 80s as of the 2 PM hour. A cold front is still expected to move across the area on Saturday. The NAM continues to be the colder than the GFS, with the NAM MOS a good 10-15 degrees cooler than the GFS MOS guidance.
Subtle cold front is approaching forecast area from central Minnesota this afternoon with stratus field associated with it. Otherwise seasonal temperatures expected with short term ridging Saturday.
Elsewhere, expect another sunny and beautiful day with temperatures soaring into the mid 70s for most with some upper 70s possible ahead of a cold front expected to enter NE OK this afternoon and early evening.
Subsidence will prevail over South Texas Tonight through Saturday Night as a weak mid/upper level ridge builds overhead. Expect another warm day on Saturday as the ridge builds overhead resulting in max temps ranging from the lower 80s east to upper 80s west which is 10-15 degrees above normal.
A cold front will move through the area on Saturday bringing cleaner air and snow showers to the west central ID mountains.
350 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 Dry weather is expected through Saturday as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
I don't think it'll be a washout for anyone, but it will be noticeably cooler and you could need an umbrella for short periods of time, especially along and south of I-40. By tomorrow night, the boundary, which should get to the Alabama state line during the day, will lift back northward as a warm front.
208 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 Cooler weather will follow the passage of a cold front this evening, though temperatures will still be a bit above early December normals on Saturday.
224 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 As of 2PM CST, the expected dry cold front is almost through the Texas Panhandle and will gradually push south through the South Plains and Rolling Plains into the evening hours. Winds will ease after sunset tonight, helping the already cooler airmass to drop a couple more degrees overnight under mostly clear skies. Saturday night will mark the beginning of a period of more progressive upper flow evolution as troughing over the north-central US amplifies rather quickly and upper height falls spread southward.
This is due to an area of high pressure situated to our south. High pressure centered to our south shifts slightly further east today. This allows the flow to become more west-southwest which in turn allows temperatures to be even warmer than yesterday. With the high shifting east the pressure gradient won't be as strong as yesterday so winds should be lighter through the day today.
Cooler today, but still well above normal. even as a cold front pushes south through the forecast area. Temperatures have generally peaked for the day and as the afternoon progresses, will likely see temperatures falling the rest of the afternoon as a cooler and drier airmass settles in later tonight. Slightly above normal temperatures tomorrow with high topping out in the upper 40s across northern Missouri and the low to mid 50s further south.
MVFR Ceilings remain across the eastern Coastal Bend but should erode from west to east in the next 2 hours as a mid level trough exits the area and dry subsident air moves in.
That said, it will be cloud and noticeably cooler.
At the surface, a weak cold front is pushing across the plains in these early morning hours, with slightly cooler air behind it. Aloft, an elongated upper level ridge extends across the Central Rockies and High Plains. Temperatures will be cooler today, but still well above normal for this time of year (mid 40s). We did nudge down our high temperatures a couple degrees based on the slightly cooler airmass and weak upslope component, but we should still be in the upper 50s over the majority of the plains and near 60F in Denver. Quiet day in store Saturday under weak ridging and weak downslope flow most of the day, which will help bump temperatures upward a few degrees. Breezy southerly winds driven by a lee trough over Wyoming and Nebraska will affect eastern portions of the Colorado plains, especially in the afternoon.
1106 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a dominate ridge over much of the CONUS, which has continued to displace the jetstream northward, keeping most disturbed weather bottlenecked in the East north of the Mid-Atlantic. A secondary ridge continues to penetrate the Florida Peninsula from the North Atlantic. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure will continue to straddle the Florida Peninsula over the next several days.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 67 50 67 52 / 0 10 10 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 66 47 67 50 / 10 10 10 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 47 64 46 65 48 / 10 10 10 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 62 43 62 46 / 0 10 0 10 50.
May see a few showers/storms develop over parts of southeast OK prior to sunrise, along with low clouds/patchy fog in the higher dewpoint air.
High pressure will continue bringing dry conditions, light breezes, and warm daytime temperatures through this weekend. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Southwest. There continue to be a couple of weak lows undercutting the ridge that will pass through and near Arizona over the weekend with very little impact on our weather.
A weaker cold front will continue to move into the area today. The aforementioned cold front will stall in south central Oklahoma tomorrow morning. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be cooler, especially behind the weak cold front but still slightly above average.
Models this morning remain in good agreement with a cold front crossing southwest Kansas early this morning. Gusty north winds of 20 to 25 mph along with some cooler air is forecast to invade portions of southwest Kansas during the afternoon behind this cold front but a wedge of warmer 850mb temperatures are forecast to remain through the early afternoon across portions of south central Kansas.
Tonight through Saturday night Weak closed upper low will move across the Panhandles tonight before weakening further into an open wave later tonight and Saturday as it tracks across western Oklahoma. A positively-tilted upper trough and closed upper low Saturday from the Four Corners region southwest to around the Baja region will move east and approach the Panhandles Saturday night. The upper ridge will break down by late Saturday into Saturday night.
NBM probabilities of measurable snow are pretty high over the northern CWA, but once you go up to an inch or greater, the highest probabilities shift off into North Dakota with only low probs over SD/west central MN.
A broad upper level ridge extends from the Pacific Ocean through the Western U. High pressure behind the cold front will build to the southeast of the center of the high, making winds shift from the northeast to the south by Saturday morning as it moves east. On Saturday afternoon, low pressure over Wyoming and the previously mentioned high, by then located over the Great Lakes, will create a strong pressure gradient over Nebraska leading to breezy southerly winds behind the high. Temperatures tomorrow will remain relatively warm despite the frontal passage as southerly flow returns behind the high.
Precipitation will start as all snow early Saturday morning but as the Low approaches and pulls the warm front north, far southern parts of our CWA will change over to rain by late afternoon with a mix of rain, snow and even a little bit of freezing rain and ice pellets further north by Saturday night.
837 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 High pressure is centered over the state tonight. Light to calm winds overnight with the high pressure center over the area. High pressure is centered over central FL tonight and will shift east through the morning. A little patchy fog may also be possible near the coast from the radiation fog drifting offshore, as well as some marine fog developing potentially over mainly the northern waters where the slightly cooler water temps are in place. Ridging then remains across the waters through the end of the period, with winds becoming more SE through mid- week.
604 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 Cooler weather will follow the passage of a cold front this evening, though temperatures will still be a bit above early December normals on Saturday.
Temperatures this evening in the lower to mid 60s expected to fall a few more degrees in the upper 50s across Central Louisiana to the lower 60s across Southeast Texas.
Another fairly quiet and mild day across the area today with temperatures as of 3 PM in the mid 50s to lower 60s; really the only thing of note was the somewhat gusty north winds behind a cold front that was continuing southward through Oklahoma and Texas.
Thanks to upper ridging still affecting our region and plenty of sun and moisture, we have climbed into the mid 70s areawide. As the upper trough swings across the region, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly across the northern areas into tomorrow.
/issued 321 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021/ As of 2PM CST, the expected dry cold front is almost through the Texas Panhandle and will gradually push south through the South Plains and Rolling Plains into the evening hours. Winds will ease after sunset tonight, helping the already cooler airmass to drop a couple more degrees overnight under mostly clear skies. Saturday night will mark the beginning of a period of more progressive upper flow evolution as troughing over the north-central US amplifies rather quickly and upper height falls spread southward.
841 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will lead to calm winds into tonight, which will also favor redevelopment of patchy to areas of fog across much of the area past midnight through early morning Saturday. High pressure across the region tonight will lead to light (5 knots or less) and variable winds across the waters, with seas 2-3 feet.
826 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 Cooler weather will follow the passage of a cold front this evening, though temperatures will still be a bit above early December normals on Saturday.
Added a winter weather advisory for the lower Clark Fork Region from 11am to 11pm Saturday. High resolution forecast models are showing moderate to heavy snowfall developing over portions of I90 from Lookout Pass to roughly Haugan and portions of the Highway 200 corridor from Heron to Trout Creek.
Westerly winds will become northwest to north this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front comes into the area. Warm westerly winds, compressional warming, and a LLTR (low-level thermal ridge) are the contributing factors for the 20 degrees above normal temperatures. However, temperatures will only remain near record today as a cold front in the TX PH is expected to push into the area. Tomorrow, will generally be a cooler day, but temperatures will likely remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 66 50 66 54 / 0 10 20 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 63 46 67 52 / 10 10 10 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 47 63 47 66 51 / 10 10 10 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 61 43 61 48 / 0 10 10 10 40.
321 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 As of 2PM CST, the expected dry cold front is almost through the Texas Panhandle and will gradually push south through the South Plains and Rolling Plains into the evening hours. Winds will ease after sunset tonight, helping the already cooler airmass to drop a couple more degrees overnight under mostly clear skies. Saturday night will mark the beginning of a period of more progressive upper flow evolution as troughing over the north-central US amplifies rather quickly and upper height falls spread southward.
Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be well above seasonable normals once again, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower to upper 70s across the region.
Winds will shift to the northwest to north overnight as a cold front moves into the area.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 50 66 54 64 / 10 10 30 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 46 67 52 63 / 10 10 20 70 90 Oak Ridge, TN 63 47 66 51 62 / 10 10 20 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 43 61 48 61 / 10 10 10 40 90.
Winds will shift to the northwest to north overnight as a cold front moves into the area. Warm westerly winds, compressional warming, and a LLTR (low-level thermal ridge) are the contributing factors for the 20 degrees above normal temperatures. However, temperatures will only remain near record today as a cold front in the TX PH is expected to push into the area. Tomorrow, will generally be a cooler day, but temperatures will likely remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
1134 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 A forecast update is in place for slightly warmer low temperatures overnight using the short term model blend. A broad upper level ridge extends from the Pacific Ocean through the Western U. High pressure behind the cold front will build to the southeast of the center of the high, making winds shift from the northeast to the south by Saturday morning as it moves east. On Saturday afternoon, low pressure over Wyoming and the previously mentioned high, by then located over the Great Lakes, will create a strong pressure gradient over Nebraska leading to breezy southerly winds behind the high. Temperatures tomorrow will remain relatively warm despite the frontal passage as southerly flow returns behind the high.
Today A weak cold front will drift south out of KY and into our area. Highs will be cooler today with temps in the lower to upper 60s. Lows will be mild with temps in the low 40s to near 50.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front is currently making slow progress to the southeast across the area this evening. Rich low level moisture, marked by dewpoints in the lower 60s, ahead of the boundary will allow for some patchy fog development tonight.
Dense fog continues for the Lower Treasure Valley and the Weiser Basin this evening, and is slowly expanding into the Treasure Valley. A cold front on Saturday will bring isolated showers over the west-central Idaho and Baker County mountains, with snow levels above roughly 6000 ft MSL.
1003 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 Update Patchy dense fog and temperatures near freezing are occurring around South Haven likely into parts of Kalamazoo County.
1051 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 (The rest of tonight) A cold front is currently making slow progress to the southeast across the area this evening. Rich low level moisture, marked by dewpoints in the lower 60s, ahead of the boundary will allow for some patchy fog development tonight.
Winds will vary greatly across the state as a cold front moves in from the north, sfc winds could increase above 10 kts mainly during the daytime hours Saturday.
905 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 A forecast update is in place for slightly warmer low temperatures overnight using the short term model blend. A broad upper level ridge extends from the Pacific Ocean through the Western U. High pressure behind the cold front will build to the southeast of the center of the high, making winds shift from the northeast to the south by Saturday morning as it moves east. On Saturday afternoon, low pressure over Wyoming and the previously mentioned high, by then located over the Great Lakes, will create a strong pressure gradient over Nebraska leading to breezy southerly winds behind the high. Temperatures tomorrow will remain relatively warm despite the frontal passage as southerly flow returns behind the high.
1150 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021 Cooler weather will follow the passage of a cold front this evening, though temperatures will still be a bit above early December normals on Saturday.
A bit cooler across much of the area behind the front with far southeast Oklahoma seeing another day in the 70s.
High pressure will be over region this period, with a trough to the north.
Northeasterly winds at 5 to 15 mph will gradually swing around to the southeast Saturday afternoon as an area of high pressure at the surface moves into the Mississippi Valley and a trough of low pressure at the surface begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. Highs today will be mainly in the low to mid 50s based on the 00z 850mb temperatures over western Kansas.
511 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today, though really just close to normal for this time of year. Quasi-zonal flow will continue today as a cooler and drier air mass moves into the Great Lakes region, giving our region a glancing shot of cooler air. With the zonal flow and the polar jet still across the northern tier of the CONUS, this cooler air really just knocks us back to more seasonal levels.
Thereafter, a change in the weather pattern will result in cooler temperatures, some gusty winds and the potential for precipitation.
452 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 A cold front is laid out east/west generally between the Mtn. The warm air advection south of the front is resulting in sizable ridge/valley temperature differences of about 20 deg F. The cold front will continue to move south and southeast today, exiting into TN and VA this afternoon.
Besides that we are looking at a sunny and beautiful day/weekend with high pressure over the state.
636 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 Expect dry weather and seasonable temperature until low pressure approaches late Sunday. Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperature expected today with building high pressure.
The snow will retreat north where the best forcing will be associated with the mid level and upper level lows. By Sunday afternoon, some of the snow will wrap back around into SD along with caa as the upper trough digs into eastern SD. Cannot rule out an isolated strong gust along the highest points of the Coteau, either. As of now, snowfall amounts may be confined to the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hill where generally under an inch is expected.
Hesitate to refer to it as a cold front, especially given that it's beginning to encounter the upper ridge centered over the Central Gulf Coast Region and slowing down significantly. The benefit? Cooler temperatures. Tonight, low pressure developing along the boundary, along with upper ridging attempting to build back over the western gulf, will take the front back to the north/northeast, with temperatures likely rising a few degrees after midnight. A stronger cold front will approach from the plains on Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely along and ahead of the boundary, especially Sunday afternoon and evening.
Tonight, a cold front will drop into north central NE late tonight. Portions of the northwest Sandhills and northern NE will range in the 40s before the cold front arrives. On Sunday, retained a slight chc for rain or snow over the Pine Ridge during the morning.
Beneath these cloudy skies, southeasterly winds across the SD plains and the cold airmass aloft will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected for most areas, with highs only in the 30s and 40s.
Above that level, air was considerably warmer (16C at 850mb) and drier, effectively capping the underlying moist layer. That said, GOES GLM detected lightning over central and southeast AR around 4 AM, near what appeared to be in IR imagery, an elevated low pressure center. On Sunday, attention will turn upstream to a deepening longwave trof over the central and northern Great Plains.
Dry northwest flow will continue aloft across eastern Utah and western Colorado as a closed low off the coast of Baja gradually pushes inland today before diving southeast into Mexico on Sunday. Meanwhile, to our northwest, an upper level trough dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska will dig into the Pacific Northwest today. As a result, expect breezy conditions at the surface with gusts nearing 45 mph in the higher elevations. However, there will be excitement in the form of cooler temperatures as the clipper introduces 700mb temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees C below zero north of I-70 in its wake. At the surface this will translate to daytime highs several degrees cooler from today's readings.
Sunday, another cold front will be approaching the region.
Winds have begun to shift more to the northeast to east as high pressure across the northeastern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula continues to slide to the east into the Western Atlantic. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 60s and dewpoints are in the lower 60s, which has led to a nice start to the day.