Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
845 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High level cloud-cover continues to stream SE across central and eastern MT after spilling over a strong upper level ridge centered across the Pacific NW. Very dry air is poised to shift east into the region later tonight and tomorrow as the ridge expands east. Hoenisch Dry conditions will prevail over the region for next several days, as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
604 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) As advertised, the strong cold front has moved through much of Texas. Temperatures early this afternoon were in the low 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Conditions were still rather breezy behind the cold front.
20Z water vapor imagery shows an amplified trough stretching from the Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes region with the Southern Plains at the base of the trough. Meanwhile, a broad ridge covers the eastern Pacific into the western CONUS. At the surface, we have high pressure over the Rockies with a low centered over MI. As the trough slowly moves east this evening, a secondary lobe of energy passes through IA and MO. With the base of the trough in the MS River valley by sunrise, the ridge builds eastward throughout the day Tuesday.
Temperatures have fallen faster than expected this evening, but dew points in the low to mid 40s should keep the overnight low temperature forecast on track.
High pressure over the region will produce warm afternoons, dry conditions, and mainly light winds Tuesday through the weekend. Remarkably steady-state conditions are expected Tuesday through the weekend as high pressure parks itself overhead. Afternoon temperatures near average today c/o light to moderate easterly winds will warm to 10-15 degrees above average for the balance of the week as the flow slackens and the ridge builds more directly overhead. Given light winds, mainly clear skies, and the inexorably lengthening fall nights, temperatures will fall substantially each night with morning temperatures bottoming out in the 30s and 40s for most valleys (exception: highly urbanized valley areas or those with minimal vegetation may only fall into the low to mid 50s after tonight).
Passing cold front now well east, as is our widespread rain from earlier today. Upper trough axis still well west, and that will slide by on Tuesday. When the trough moves closer/across on Tuesday however, light showers likely to redevelop early tomorrow. A cold front has moved through Middle Tennessee. An upper trough will cross the area Tuesday with broken cigs- mainly VFR.
The cold front has progressed through much of the area at this time, leaving in its wake a northwesterly flow that will usher drier and cooler air into the region overnight tonight through the remainder of the near term.
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A trough is positioned over the Great Lakes to the southern Mississippi River valley while a ridge stays over the western third of the CONUS.
536 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over the Upper Midwest with ridge embedded in northwest flow over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Little change it the overall weather pattern through the weekend, with long wave trof forming over the eastern CONUS and fast northwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with short wave ridge moving through the Northern Plains.
02z fcst min temps are running slightly warmer than observed ambient temps and for that reason, did lower min temps overnight just a degree or two but more so across the Ouachitas of SE OK into SW AR.
High pressure will remain over the region providing light winds, a cool night and an even warmer day Tuesday.
Fairly strong early season cold front has moved through the entire area which includes the marine offshore as well. But there is a line of light showers moving through as a very strong short wave digs into the SE portion of the upper long wave trough.
950 PM PDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
High pressure building over the region will result in a gradual warming trend through the middle of the week, with dry weather persisting through the upcoming weekend. An expansive mid level ridge resides across the western CONUS this evening. This ridge is centered over Oregon which is resulting in a light northerly flow across the forecast area, maintaining a relatively cool and stable airmass.
Models are in very good agreement in developing a large h500 upper low encompassing the region from the East Coast/New England to the Rockies by Wednesday.
High level cloud-cover continues to stream SE across central and eastern MT after spilling over a strong upper level ridge centered across the Pacific NW. Very dry air is poised to shift east into the region later tonight and tomorrow as the ridge expands east. Hoenisch Dry conditions will prevail over the region for next several days, as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures across the region were generally in the upper 40s to the lower 50s, though the urban areas were still in the mid 50s. After sunrise, we expect the fog to mix out, but low-level moisture in the low layers of the atmosphere will likely result in a status deck becoming predominant through the morning and afternoon hours. Highs on the day should top out in the lower 60s. Lows should bottom out in the low-mid 40s. Upper flow pattern appears to remain consistent throughout the period with ridging over the western half of the US and troughing over the eastern half, which should keep temperatures well below climatological norms for this time of year.
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High amplitude troughing now entrenched throughout the central U. Southeast Michigan will maintain a position within the immediately downstream flank of the mean trough axis today, leaving low to mid level southwest flow to govern conditions during the daylight period. An area of convergence will emerge late today, as the pressure gradient responds to height falls associated with the inbound trough axis. A deeper layer of cold, moist cyclonic flow derived from the resident upper trough axis will then define conditions Wednesday. The strongest updrafts may offer a few instances of lightning, small hail and gusty winds given the magnitude of lapse rates, suppressed freezing levels and a very dry sub-cloud layer.
Temperatures to range from highs in the low to mid 70s today and lows in the lower 50s tonight. Highs on Wednesday to climb into the lower 80s.
The cold front has drifted into the Northwest corner of Georgia. 41 A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight and early Tuesday along with increasing upper level flow helping to enhance shower and some thunderstorm chances. Shower chances will diminish/end Tuesday night as the upper trough approaches and the moisture exits to the E with and a much cooler airmass moving over the area. The deep long-wave trough that will have aided in shower and storm development through the short term period will be in the process of pivoting across the Southeast and beginning to lift northeast on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated cold front will have pushed through Georgia and exited off the East Coast.
Today Through Wednesday Night Cooler and drier conditions are ongoing early this Tue morning in wake of the cold front that moved through the region Mon morning. A new cold front will drop SE into the state Wed night.
At the surface, a shallow high pressure ridge slides eastward over the course of the day ahead of the decaying upper ridge. The H850 flow backs slightly to the west with the passage of the ridge, heralding the onset of WAA off the High Plains. Aside from the mid to high clouds cresting the ridge and sliding southward through mainly the eastern forecast area, look for a nice day with winds notably calmer than yesterday given the passage of the ridge. Tonight will also be quiet with a light westerly flow keeping lows upwards of 10 degrees warmer than the previous night.
Tomorrow will continue the breezy weather but with slightly warmer temps. Weak ridging along with westerly sfc winds (and some warm advection) will help push temps back into the 70s, but will also lead to drier conditions. Fall like conditions will resume as a backdoor cold front sags into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Passing cold front now well east, as is our widespread rain from earlier today. Upper trough axis still well west, and that will slide by on Tuesday. When the trough moves closer/across on Tuesday however, light showers likely to redevelop early tomorrow.
Skies will then be mostly clear overnight with lows dropping into the lower to middle 40s. A brief warm-up will be in store Wednesday as southwesterly winds ahead of the next approaching cold front boost highs into the lower 70s.
203 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 08z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into southern WY. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over the western CONUS with upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. Today/tonight, warm front moves through the CWA with modest low level warm air advection and some high clouds zipping through. Tonight, a dry cold front moves into the CWA late. Wednesday, gusty northwest winds expected given tighter gradient behind cold front and sustained, but modest cold air advection. Temperatures will be 10F cooler than today.
420 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A slow moving cold front will stall over NY and PA today, bringing steady rain to our region. Cooler, seasonable temperatures will arrive by Wednesday. A cold front will stall across the I-81 corridor today. Cold front will be well to our east by Wednesday evening, but but deep upper trough will be digging into the region.
But first, dry conditions today with highs in the low sixties. Dry and cool today with high temperatures only in the low-60s (normal is right near 70). An upper-level trough embedded in northwest flow will move through today, though the moisture profiles in forecast soundings are quite dry during the day. This changes overnight, however, as a spoke of Pacific moisture moves in behind the trough axis.
This activity will linger into the the evening hours, then diminish toward 03Z as the low moves into IA. Since models have been overestimating afternoon dew points of late, stayed on the low end of guidance, which would yield afternoon relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent through the MO River Valley - leading to another critical fire weather day across the area. A cold front will slide through the region on Tuesday night. This will lead to a cooler day on Wednesday in a cold air advection regime and highs back into the 60s. For the end of the week into the upcoming weekend, an upper level trough establishes itself over the eastern CONUS, putting our area in a northwesterly upper level flow.
Surface ridging over New Mexico today will continue to slide to the south overnight and tomorrow into south Texas. The southern portion of the upper high will be centered near the southern NM/AZ state line by early Wednesday. The high will begin to expand, causing the surface to 500 mb thickness to increase, thus increasing temperatures over the area.
1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) As advertised, the strong cold front has moved through much of Texas. Temperatures early this afternoon were in the low 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Conditions were still rather breezy behind the cold front.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge.
342 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Today through tonight: The anomalous weather pattern in the near term will feature a highly amplified western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough. Clear skies and light wind tonight will result in rather ideal nocturnal cooling conditions and this should send temperatures down to the upper 40s for the normally cooler spots.
Very high amplitude ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the West Coast this morning with water vapor imagery showing the apex of the ridge all the way up to 50 degrees north. Under the ridge very dry air is noted and this is no surprise.
Tonight Through Wednesday The upper pattern will continue through Wednesday with a strong upper ridge over the west coast and a large upper trough over the central and eastern U. High pressure will continue over the area through Wednesday with dry and cool conditions.
Closed low pressure was present over Lake Superior. A broad trough of low pressure extended south of the low to the northern Gulf of Mexico. West of the trough, high pressure was anchored over southwest Oregon with a ridge extending north into southern British Columbia. East of the trough, high pressure was present off the east coast of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure was anchored from the central Rockies, northwest into Idaho. A weak warm front will push through western and central Nebraska today. Highs will be cooler in the northeast in the vicinity of the boundary. By tonight, a cold front will approach northern Nebraska by daybreak Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s mainly south of Interstate 80.
1010 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over the Upper Midwest with ridge embedded in northwest flow over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Little change it the overall weather pattern through the weekend, with long wave trof forming over the eastern CONUS and fast northwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with short wave ridge moving through the Northern Plains.
The cold front has progressed through much of the area at this time, leaving in its wake a northwesterly flow that will usher drier and cooler air into the region overnight tonight through the remainder of the near term. Dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much cooler. Expect highs on Tuesday to remain in the low 70s and on Wednesday only climb into the mid and upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night dip to around 50 well inland and the low to mid 50s near the coast.
After a cool start with temperatures starting out in the low to mid 40s across the area, they will rise to the mid 70s for most of eastern Oklahoma and into the low 70s across northwest Arkansas under clear skies.
This will help drive another cold front through the Ozarks Wednesday evening.
A band of MVFR/IFR cigs is pushing west to east across the area in the wake of this evening's cold front. The cold front has progressed through much of the area at this time, leaving in its wake a northwesterly flow that will usher drier and cooler air into the region overnight tonight through the remainder of the near term. Dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much cooler. Expect highs on Tuesday to remain in the low 70s and on Wednesday only climb into the mid and upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night dip to around 50 well inland and the low to mid 50s near the coast.
/EC/ Skies slowly clearing this evening behind the cold front as the cooler and drier air moves into the region. Have updated the forecast for the cooler and drier air. Temps tonight will be much cooler than we've seen in a while with lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE. Max Temps will warm quick, but hold steady in the lower/mid 70s through the afternoon.
1146 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 For 09/29/2020 06Z TAF Issuance Mid level stratus deck continues to slowly work through the region behind the cold front. /issued 251 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ Cold front continues to move through the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms continuing along and to the east of a line from Cameron to Bunkie. Cooler drier air will continue to advect into the region tonight as skies gradually clear. Winds will continue to increase in the wake of a cold front moving across the coastal waters this afternoon and evening.
1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Shower activity continues under a broad upper level trough with pieces of vorticity streaming along this trough as a strong upper level jet noses down the upstream portion of the trough. The cool, yet active pattern continues for the remainder of the week as the upper level trough doesn't really move, but further digs south allowing even colder air to situate itself overhead.
North winds of 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts of around 25 knots can be expected through tomorrow evening at KNEW and KMSY as cold air advects across the warmer waters of Lake Pontchatrain and allows stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
311 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 As predicted yesterday, a secondary trough and closed low is making its way down across eastern Iowa and western Illinois at this time. The main difference from yesterday is that the upper low will slide southeast and be situated just to our north later today, instead of further west as was predicted yesterday. While a few sprinkles are possible just about anywhere today, guidance is hinting at the possibility of a few showers in our eastern sections this afternoon with instability due to afternoon heating and the placement of the upper trough at that time. The upper trough moves east this evening and northwesterly flow commencing behind it with moisture profiles drying out a bit. An 850mb temperature ridge slides south into the area for Wednesday.
909 PM PDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
309 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Morning showers along the coast, followed by showers and TSTMs late today and tonight as a cold front moves through. High pressure in wake of this front, will bring cooler and drier air through the remainder of the period. Cold air advection already underway before daybreak Wednesday and min-T will be notably cooler at sunrise, widespread 60s. Very quiet weather expected for the end of the work week as deep mid level troughing will dominate across the eastern third of the conus.
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s for much of the region. Upper level pattern over the CONUS will remain amplified into Wednesday with a longwave trough extending down over the GOM and broad subtropical ridge out west. Low temperatures tonight have a chance to cool very efficiently especially over the low lying drainage basins in the Hill Country. Slightly warmer temperatures for Wednesday afternoon than Tuesday as winds back around to the southwest and skies remain clear.
Current water vapor imagery would suggest an upper low stretching from the Great Lakes into the mid-Mississippi Valley headed this way. Models are showing this upper low moving into the TN Valley later this morning and potentially spawning some light rain/drizzle across our eastern half. I will maintain the low end PoPs for those along and east of I-65 today, especially for this afternoon, but this really should be no more than an irritation versus a real rain- maker. A little temperature rebound is expected Wednesday behind this upper low as 850mb winds swing around to the southwest and usher in some slightly warmer air.
West coast ridge and east coast trough will keep the region under northwest flow a loft through the weekend.
138 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Aviation -Cool and showery; occasional thunder risk -Frost/freeze possible by week's end -- Cool and showery; occasional thunder risk -- As a deep longwave trough continues to evolve/dig over the eastern U. this week, a series of sfc cold fronts will bring progressively colder air into the GrtLks Region.
325 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Today is looking to warm up a little more than yesterday as the deep longwave trough over midwest starts to shift to the east allowing some ridging and WAA to move into the area. The warm up will continue into Wednesday, but mostly south of HWY 36 as a dry cold front pushes into the area from the north. This will keep northern Missouri slightly cooler, and definitely drier as dewpoints will fall into the 30s by the afternoon.
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight will move over the Ohio Valley area later today while NNW mid/upper flow prevails across the Central Plains states. Moderating temperatures are expected again for much of southern KS on Wednesday, although an approaching cold front may keep highs in the 70s across portions of central KS.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The axis of an upper trough can be seen on water vapor imagery swinging southeast through the area tonight. Nice weather will be the result as large scale subsidence will rule on the back side of the trough.
Strong high pressure over the western US with the ridge axis extending from north-central Mexico to the Columbia River mouth, smack over the Great Basin.
1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A trough is positioned over the Great Lakes to the southern Mississippi River valley while a ridge stays over the western third of the CONUS.
156 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A slow moving cold front will stall over NY and PA today, bringing steady rain to our region. Cooler, seasonable temperatures will arrive by Wednesday. A cold front will stall across the I-81 corridor today. The low and the associated cold front quickly moves off into the Northeast with weak WAA at 850 mb on Wednesday as drier air moves in.
1042 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Relatively quiet weather is expected in the short term as the ridge starts building across the area in earnest today. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday albeit even warmer, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s across much of the area. Model agreement continues to show northwest flow maintaining a strong grip over the entire state as a dome of high pressure continues to dominate over the Arizona/California state line. High pressure will build into the area today, with dry conditions expected through the week as the ridge strengthens.
/Issued 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The axis of an upper trough can be seen on water vapor imagery swinging southeast through the area tonight. Nice weather will be the result as large scale subsidence will rule on the back side of the trough.
1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Surface and upper-level ridge of high pressure to maintain dry conditions through the terminal forecast period with VFR conditions prevailing. 02z fcst min temps are running slightly warmer than observed ambient temps and for that reason, did lower min temps overnight just a degree or two but more so across the Ouachitas of SE OK into SW AR.
Mid level heights increase through the week as ridging to our west begins to nose into the area. An increasing thermal ridge in the mid levels will help warm afternoon temperatures back above normal as early as Wednesday.
1242 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Showers will develop over the area this evening and continue into Tuesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Much cooler weather will persist for the remainder of the week. However, as this trough moves eastward, it will decrease in strength, so it is possible that these pockets of brief, heavier rain may dissipate this evening. By Tuesday morning, the surface cold front will be located just east of the forecast area with the sloped mid-level section of the front across WV and western PA. While most of the forecast area won't see too much more rainfall, increased frontogenetical forcing may increase rain rates in the vicinity of the Allegheny Front (~Laurel Ridge through the Mon NF) along the mid-level boundary on Tuesday afternoon.
Northwest flow as the result of a large ridge in the Rockies and a large trough in the Mississippi river valley will continue across the central plains throughout the day on Tuesday. Overall winds at the surface will also be out of the northwest and with plenty of sunshine and warmer air downsloping from the northwest we should see highs get into the lower 80s. Western Kansas will only see a glancing shot from this cooler airmass, but again it will remain dry.