Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 233 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ The clouds will remain in place for the remainder of today and tonight, but some sunlight is making it through the low cloud deck this afternoon. The low clouds will be firmly in place tomorrow morning for most of us, then begin to lift and clear from west to east, as the trough axis begins to shift from the Rockies into the Central Plains. The upper level system that has brought us the cooler and wetter weather will be moving across the northern Plains into the Midwest on Saturday. As this system picks up speed, it will send a weak cold front to the area on Saturday but looks to possibly stop short even of the Texas Panhandle.
121 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift east and take control of our weather through the first half of the weekend.
Areas of fog and freezing fog will be possible tonight east of the central mountains. Temperatures will trend warmer moving into the weekend and beyond, staying near average.
1126 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 As of early this afternoon, 500mb height analysis indicates the center of the vertically stacked low pressure system is located near KGJT. To the east and southeast of the low pressure center, morning overcast skies have scattered out. Overall however, surface temperatures will remain at or slightly above freezing today even at pass-level. The broad upper-level low pressure system is progged to lift northward and eventually become re-captured by the mid latitude jet stream.
Cyclone lifts out eastward through the Plains into western portion of Upper Great Lakes late Saturday. Window of potential for convection to fire within prefrontal trough west/northwest CWA late afternoon/early evening. MLCAPE only on order of 500-750 J/kg, though deep layer shear on order of 35 to 40 knots and ambient strong flow through trough, could briefly provide for some strong to low end severe convective wind gusts associated with stronger storms.
Then more shower activity should mix in by the lunch hour, as the closed low over Colorado this morning shifts into western Nebraska/South Dakota, enhancing mid-level lift. We will need to watch out for scattered showers tonight and Saturday morning (best rain chances in northeast Nebraska) as the core of the low moves overhead, but then drier weather should arrive for the afternoon and evening. A few peaks of sunshine are possible by Saturday evening, though most model guidance indicates some lingering low level cloud cover behind the low.
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A weak cold front will push south of the area later tonight. High pressure will slide across southeastern Ontario and into northern New York State by late Friday.
Mostly cloudy skies this morning, especially over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, will break up this afternoon allowing the September sun to pull temperatures into the lower and middle 80s. Tonight the ridging at the surface and aloft will begin to pull off to the east, but the weekend storm system will still be far enough west that we will simply have partly cloudy skies. As we move into the weekend, upper level ridging will be moving off to the east as the upper low initially located over the northern Plains opens up and swings eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions.
345 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low currently center over northern Colorado will slowly lift northeastward into the northern Plains by Saturday evening.
321 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A weak cold front will push south of the area later tonight. High pressure will slide across southeastern Ontario and into northern New York State by late Friday.
222 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low over eastern Wyoming will advect showers into our southeast zones today along with some cloud cover. This will mean cooler temperatures in these areas today. As the upper low tracks east/northeast any shower activity in our eastern sections will end by this evening. High pressure will slowly build over the Rockies for the weekend.
931 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 The low pressure system over northern Colorado will continue northeast into the northern plains states Friday. High pressure aloft along the west coast will shift east into the Great Basin, producing a warming trend with dry conditions through the weekend.
Conditions are expected to improve to VFR late in the period as the upper low pulls further east and northeast into the high plains.
Rain will finally end, across West Central Texas today, as the upper trough moves farther east. Elsewhere today, high mainly in the lower to mid 70s look reasonable.
1159 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A wedge of dry low level air will continue to gradually erode MVFR stratus as northeast flow persists off of high pressure to the north. The low level saturated frontal inversion has persisted evidenced by sluggish low ceilings and drizzle that was surprisingly active here midday in the highlands near the office.
247 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A pesky upper low currently over southeast Wyoming is expected to push into the Nebraska Pinedale or southwest S.
A short wave ridge sits between the three. A weak inverted trough in the easterlies is over the Bahamas, driving gentle northeasterly breezes through the Keys this morning. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. The Bahamian trough will slide west today and tonight, dragging and envelope of increasing cyclonic curvature through the Keys. MIMIC TPW loops highlight a broad swath of deep tropical moisture ahead of and behind the trough. Current IR imagery reveals scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms around the trough, and there is no reason to believe this will not be the case as the axis presses through the Keys tonight through Saturday night.
353 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 During this period a closed upper low will migrate from Wyoming into eastern South Dakota. We expect an increase in clouds across the south and east with the passage of the low. The NBM gave low temperatures in the lower 40s southwest to around 50 across the James River Valley Saturday morning, which seemed reasonable. A few lingering showers will remain Saturday in the wake of the exiting upper low, otherwise a period of dry and warmer weather is expected as a broad h500 ridge moves from the northwest US into the Northern Plains.
Moisture seems a bit short in supply as the upper level low tracks into North Dakota Friday afternoon. High pressure at the surface and upper levels over ND this evening. High pressure ridge in-between weather systems has brought clear skies and dry conditions to the state today. Expect much of these same conditions to continue for tonight, with overnight lows generally above freezing and in the 30s and 40s. The attention then turns to Friday as a large upper level low moves across the region. Some uncertainty remains for coverage of these potential showers and thunderstorms as the low lacks a rich moisture source. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler given cloud cover. Upper low moves eastward across the region Friday night into Saturday morning perhaps bringing some scattered showers.
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 (This evening through Friday) The upper low over the Colorado/Utah border will lift northeast into western South Dakota on Friday. With widespread cloud cover tonight, only expect temperatures to drop a couple of degrees for the lows.
Quiet weather will prevail as high pressure to our north continues to drive cool air across western PA. High pressure will shift northeast early tomorrow morning; warm, moist air under SW flow will return to the Ohio River Valley. An approaching upper- level trough from the Midwest will prompt pre- frontal showers and isolated storms late Saturday night over eastern Ohio.
There will still be some dry air in the lower levels so we are not expecting significant rainfall. The upper system will drive a cold front through the region as well. The highest instability occurs Saturday evening.
Southwest flow aloft continues as the 500mb low is making slow progress toward the high plains from northern Colorado.
Northeast FL and southeast GA will be pinched between an elongated ridge to the northeast and a weak disturbance located over the Bahamas today.
145 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Cloudy and cool tonight into Friday before turning warmer for the weekend.
This cooler shallow air mass filtering down/ across the region will also bring with it MVFR/IFR CIGS to most of the CWA tonight through early tomorrow morning.
A broad ridge of high pressure will set up over the West Coast today. This ridge will migrate eastward over the course of the coming weekend. Smoke will become noticeable today and thicken through the weekend as the ridge axis moves eastward and upper-level flow becomes more westerly.
Isolated showers have returned to western Kansas with the upper low centered near the Four Corners. The upper low begins to push northeast tonight into Friday with deeper moisture returning as decent Q-vector convergences moves through late tonight into midday Friday. Guidance continues to show a decent spread in precip timing and coverage though eastern areas appear to have the best available moisture so have the highest chances there. Have tonight's lows a bit warmer with stratus persisting over the higher dewpoint air. Should see somewhat warmer temps Friday as the moisture is somewhat scoured behind the wave axis. The cold front passage Saturday with the upper low's progression into Wisconsin is bringing some potential for precip.
As the high shifts inland on Friday, a more pronounced northwest flow will develop aloft, beginning the transfer of smoke currently along the Pacific NW coast.
1115 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A weak cold front will push south of the area later tonight. High pressure will slide across southeastern Ontario and into northern New York State by late Friday.
/issued 213 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020/ The remainder of the overnight hours will be crisp, cool, cloudy, and calm, as the surface anticyclone continues to broaden beneath the departing upper-level low that is now centered over the eastern Rocky Mountains. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout the day as the closed low pivots off to the northeast, and as the low-level stratus deck mixes out, some degree of vertical mixing will occur this afternoon with temperatures slated to rise into the middle 70s across the CWA. Sincavage A fine stretch of fall weather is in store for the South Plains region in the extended as broad upper ridging dominates the southern tier of the CONUS.
Cyclone lifts out eastward through the Plains into western portion of Upper Great Lakes late Saturday. Window of potential for convection to fire within prefrontal trough west/northwest CWA late afternoon/early evening. MLCAPE only on order of 500-750 J/kg, though deep layer shear on order of 35 to 40 knots and ambient strong flow through trough, could briefly provide for some strong to low end severe convective wind gusts associated with stronger storms. A subsidence inversion is keeping the lower ceilings and misty/drizzly conditions in place this morning, however expect improvement throughout the afternoon with increased mixing and dwindling moisture.
623 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide north of Pennsylvania today, then off of the New England coast on Saturday.
39 via KXMR sounding data) streaming into the region on a deep layered easterly wind flow between a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas and high pressure further to the north will combine with daytime heating, good instability, and the sea breeze circulations to support numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the forecast area during the afternoon, first over inland areas with the convection then moving west toward coastal areas during the mid and late afternoon hours.
07 UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low circulation centered across north central Colorado.
1035 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide north of Pennsylvania today, then off of the New England coast on Saturday.
As the ridge weakens, an inverted 500mb trough will slide westward across the northern Gulf waters on Saturday, bringing much deeper, tropical moisture across the region.
The upper low over the eastern Rockies is expected to lift northeastward to over the NRN Plains during the period, while a generally weak upper ridge is predicted to persist over the CWA/MSA.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good as high pressure to the north noses southward across the region. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 87 72 84 / 20 20 60 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 87 71 84 / 20 20 60 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 90 70 87 70 84 / 20 20 60 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 82 68 83 / 20 20 50 30 70.
628 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Quick highlights- Expecting one last round of showers and some isolated thunder today due to some comma tail precip from the main low pressure system moving in from the west. After today we can expect a mainly dry forecast with temperatures steadily returning to around normal for this time of year thanks to the return of high pressure aloft. Today through tomorrow morning- The upper level closed low system will continue to push northward today along the eastern WY border, before pushing eastward across the NE/SD border later this evening and into tomorrow morning. along with more of the well below average temperatures (into the low 60s for most places today).
432 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Quick highlights- Expecting one last round of showers and some isolated thunder today due to some comma tail precip from the main low pressure system moving in from the west. After today we can expect a mainly dry forecast with temperatures steadily returning to around normal for this time of year thanks to the return of high pressure aloft. Today through tomorrow morning- The upper level closed low system will continue to push northward today along the eastern WY border, before pushing eastward across the NE/SD border later this evening and into tomorrow morning. along with more of the well below average temperatures (into the low 60s for most places today).
815 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Low stratus has developed behind a cold front over all but some of the southwest portions of the JKL forecast area. A weak, poorly defined cold front is dropping south through KY early this morning. As it presses south it is losing momentum as it runs into mid/upper level ridging over TN and the Carolinas. Combined with the ridging, this will keep the POP to a minimum today into tonight. Closed mid/upper level low pressure over the high plains near the Front Range this morning will slowly move east northeast and begin to open up and get absorbed into the flow through Saturday. The focus through the rest of the weekend will be on a cold front as it drops southward through Kentucky.
During this period a closed upper low will migrate from Wyoming into eastern South Dakota. We expect an increase in clouds across the south and east with the passage of the low. The NBM gave low temperatures in the lower 40s southwest to around 50 across the James River Valley Saturday morning, which seemed reasonable. A few lingering showers will remain Saturday in the wake of the exiting upper low, otherwise a period of dry and warmer weather is expected as a broad h500 ridge moves from the northwest US into the Northern Plains.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will maintain a dry northwesterly flow across the Great Basin today. This high will move east during the upcoming weekend bringing a warming trend.
Quiet weather will prevail as high pressure to our north continues to drive cool air across the region. Increasing subsidence and dry advection will suppress the low level cloudiness as the afternoon progresses so no change was needed for the seasonable high temperature prognosis. Low pressure digging toward the Upper Mississippi Valley will develop return flow over the Uppper Ohio on Saturday.
513 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low will meander over western Nebraska today before finally pulling away from the area on Saturday.
The Blocking High pattern is back over the West Coast as the disturbance from earlier in the week continues to exit the region. The High pattern is now in the form of an Omega Block with its axis progged over the West Coast this Friday.
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 07 UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low circulation centered across north central Colorado.
A clear sky is promoting patchy fog development this morning as temperatures fall into the low 70s and upper 60s. A big picture of the CONUS paints a closed low over the Rockies/Upper Plains and in contrast, high pressure from the TN Valley into the Carolinas. As the Upper Plains closed low becomes entrained with upper level flow, high pressure will begin to break down here at home. Models indicate that the higher QPF will be focused along and east of I-65 Saturday afternoon and evening.
Showers and a few storms will increase tonight with the approach of the trough, especially along and offshore the Space and Treasure Coasts. Model guidance has trended stronger with onshore flow north of the inverted trough, with speeds reaching 13-17kt overnight.
722 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide north of Pennsylvania today, then off of the New England coast on Saturday.
Cigs may try to lift to VFR categories late in the period from SW to NE as the upper low pulls further east and northeast into the high plains this evening and overnight. /Issued 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020/ Upper low currently center over northern Colorado will slowly lift northeastward into the northern Plains by Saturday evening.
526 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A weak, poorly defined cold front is dropping south through KY early this morning. As it presses south it is losing momentum as it runs into mid/upper level ridging over TN and the Carolinas. Combined with the ridging, this will keep the POP to a minimum today into tonight. Closed mid/upper level low pressure over the high plains near the Front Range this morning will slowly move east northeast and begin to open up and get absorbed into the flow through Saturday. The focus through the rest of the weekend will be on a cold front as it drops southward through Kentucky.
A closed upper low that was over the southwest U. The closed upper low will weaken and become an open upper wave when it reaches the Upper Midwest Saturday night.
Upper level ridging influences will provide for generally VFR conditions with on the whole bkn CI patches at times thru 12/12Z.
945 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Fairly tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region early this morning, with an area of high pressure across Middle Tennessee and the Ohio Valley still being the more dominant weather feature. This has resulted in a sunny sky this morning and subsequently good heating as temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s as of 1530Z. However, a weak inverted trough will slowly begin to creep north from the Gulf Coast today. The end result will be a subtle increase in moisture as dewpoints return to the lower 70s. The main impact may be the return to the summer-like heat and humidity as highs peak in the lower 90s, with heat index values close to 100 degrees by mid/late afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) Temperatures remain well-below normal this afternoon, but are 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday and climbing through the 60s. As the upper low (over the Wyoming/Nebraska border this afternoon) moves east-northeast across parts of far southern South Dakota tonight, the flow aloft over our area will weaken and veer to the west. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are in store for Saturday afternoon, with highs expected to be in the mid 80s.
Quick highlights- Expecting one last round of showers and some isolated thunder today due to some comma tail precip from the main low pressure system moving in from the west. After today we can expect a mainly dry forecast with temperatures steadily returning to around normal for this time of year thanks to the return of high pressure aloft. Today through tomorrow morning- The upper level closed low system will continue to push northward today along the eastern WY border, before pushing eastward across the NE/SD border later this evening and into tomorrow morning. along with more of the well below average temperatures (into the low 60s for most places today).
Upper ridge remains essentially in place over the region this afternoon and tonight, but begins shifting east tomorrow.
Clear skies will accompany a building upper ridge today.
346 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide north of Pennsylvania today, then off of the New England coast on Saturday.
325 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Dry weather is expected tonight into Saturday as high pressure travels east across the Great Lakes.
210 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Showers and clouds over far eastern areas will decrease into the evening as an upper low over eastern Wyoming continues to shift east. High pressure will slowly build over the region this weekend allowing for temperatures to warm into the 70s and 80s. Along with the warmer temperatures, westerly flow aloft will advect smoke from western wildfires into the area.
Temperatures are sitting in the low to mid 30s and may continue to drop a few degrees until just after sunrise. 5 to 1 inch will be possible with the highest amounts across northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Saturday will remain cooler due to clouds and rainfall, with most places rising to the upper 50s. Rain will move out of the Northland from west to east Saturday night as the cut off low becomes embedded with a broader upper level trough and moves east.
The closed low off to the south continues to encroach on the area brining increasing clouds across the southern half of North Dakota. During this period a closed upper low will migrate from Wyoming into eastern South Dakota. We expect an increase in clouds across the south and east with the passage of the low. The NBM gave low temperatures in the lower 40s southwest to around 50 across the James River Valley Saturday morning, which seemed reasonable. A few lingering showers will remain Saturday in the wake of the exiting upper low, otherwise a period of dry and warmer weather is expected as a broad h500 ridge moves from the northwest US into the Northern Plains.
Tonight we will see clearing skies, as high pressure from the Great Lakes and mid-level ridging remain in control. This will promote mainly river valley fog formation tonight with some slight ridge/valley temperature splits. Saturday, the aforementioned boundary will not stay to our south long, as it lifts northward as a warm front. Then we see a cold front start to make a push east Saturday night.
The persistent upper low has made it to the northwest Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, and is projected to be centered near Minneapolis by Saturday evening.
250 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide north of Pennsylvania today, then off of the New England coast on Saturday.
This as low level moisture moves from northeast flow and is getting stuck underneath the low level inversion. Low stratus has developed behind a cold front over all but some of the southwest portions of the JKL forecast area. A weak, poorly defined cold front is dropping south through KY early this morning. As it presses south it is losing momentum as it runs into mid/upper level ridging over TN and the Carolinas. Combined with the ridging, this will keep the POP to a minimum today into tonight. Closed mid/upper level low pressure over the high plains near the Front Range this morning will slowly move east northeast and begin to open up and get absorbed into the flow through Saturday. The focus through the rest of the weekend will be on a cold front as it drops southward through Kentucky.