Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This has helped temperatures acrs our SE TX counties warm into the lower to middle 50s this aftn, while further east temps have struggled to reach 50 degrees. Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows compact mid-level low crossing the lower MS Valley, with dry air on the backside of the system working its way into E TX/W LA. At the sfc, low pres was situated off the SE LA coast, with high pres ridge extending acrs cntl AR into cntl TX.
819 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 A stalled frontal boundary across the central peninsula will advance northward a bit tonight as low pressure moves off to the northeast. This low will then bring a cold front through the region on Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers to the local area. Some showers will be possible tonight through Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the region.
These cold front will push through Lower Michigan within the next 28 hours. The HRRR is some >3500 ft deeper with mixed layer and supports much warmer daytime temperatures. The second cold front is expected to push off of Lake Huron during the late afternoon under pseudo lake breeze dynamics across the eastern cwa.
558 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 A stalled front to the south will return northward as a warm front and provide rain late today into Wednesday. Dry and cool weather moves in for the remainder of week has high pressure builds in.
654 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Cold front dropping south through the area early this evening. A cold front is on the way, currently pushing towards the international border. Lingering cloud cover and light southeasterly winds will keep temps a bit cooler for tomorrow, although still above seasonal averages. Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions are in the forecast as the region will be under the influence of a building upper ridge, while troughs remain anchored over both coasts.
A Pacific storm will bring gusty south to southwest winds to northern Arizona on Wednesday with warmer temperatures.
657 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 The week will feature mostly dry weather as high pressure remains largely in control.
621 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Southwest winds will continue to gust into this evening as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing north of the of the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will settle into the area on Wednesday as this low continue into Quebec. These cold front will push through Lower Michigan within the next 28 hours. The HRRR is some >3500 ft deeper with mixed layer and supports much warmer daytime temperatures. The second cold front is expected to push off of Lake Huron during the late afternoon under pseudo lake breeze dynamics across the eastern cwa.
942 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will move offshore tonight, while low pressure crosses the Gulf Coast and Southeast states through Wednesday, keeping rain to our south.
/issued 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ WV imagery shows a weak, dirty ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in maximum insolation in subsidence on the backside of the upper trough that moved through these parts yesterday.
High pressure building into the region will result in light northerly winds overnight through Wednesday. This has helped temperatures acrs our SE TX counties warm into the lower to middle 50s this aftn, while further east temps have struggled to reach 50 degrees. Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows compact mid-level low crossing the lower MS Valley, with dry air on the backside of the system working its way into E TX/W LA. At the sfc, low pres was situated off the SE LA coast, with high pres ridge extending acrs cntl AR into cntl TX.
Overall, a broad high pressure ridge will gradually build into the area overnight, making the westerly flow aloft become more anticyclonic, which should help further decrease the mid and high level cloudiness. A high pressure ridge will then start to build north into the area after 12Z, which will help decrease the winds aloft and keep the area mostly clear. /ISSUED 425 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021/ A longwave ridge amplifies over the western and central CONUS this week. A cut-off low will slip through the ridge, but not have any adverse impact on our regional weather as it moves from Southern California toward Colorado.
High pressure across the area is leading to this drier air mass. Originating as a cut off low off the SoCal coast Wednesday morning, this low pressure system will track through the Desert Southwest late Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing shower activity across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado late Wednesday evening.
650 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure will continue to move east through this evening. A low pressure system will move southeast across Ontario Tuesday night into Wednesday, extending a cold front south across the area late Wednesday.
Models show upper ridging to dominate the weather for the CWA tonight and Wednesday. 5 c warmer than today's readings.
/issued 251 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Colder and drier air continues to filter into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today as high pressure settles into the region behind yesterday's cold front. With ridging in control and limited moisture available, PoPs are nil through the period. Highs on Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s across the area, with low to mid 60s along the coast, and then only drop into the 50s on Wednesday night with the light onshore flow.
A warm front will approach the region tonight. Moisture will be confined to the warm front with light snow moving into the northern Tug Hill region this evening. Temperatures will continue to increase Wednesday with daytime highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s and the low 30s on the Tug Hill. An amplifying ridge over the western Conus will encourage a sharpening longwave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.
A longwave ridge amplifies over the western and central CONUS this week. A cut-off low will slip through the ridge, but not have any adverse impact on our regional weather as it moves from Southern California toward Colorado.
/Issued 332 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ Upper level trof axis has cleared Northwest Arkansas this afternoon with clear skies and west to southwesterly winds common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas behind the departing wave.
222 PM PST Tue Mar 2 2021 A storm system that tracks eastward across southern California Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures and a slight chance of light precipitation to the Kern county mountains and over the higher elevation of the Sierra.
Meanwhile, at the surface, low pressure centered just off the southeast Louisiana coast will continue to push east towards the Florida Panhandle. No accumulations or impacts are expected as surface temperatures remain well above freezing. Here, temperatures will fall into the low 30s with areas of fog possible given saturated soils and calm conditions. Elsewhere, lows will range from the low 40s along the I-59 corridor to mid 30s along the Natchez Trace corridor. For tomorrow, any lingering clouds in the morning should clear out by the afternoon with a return to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 60s areawide.
512 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low spinning over central AR with a much deeper upper low approaching the southern CA coast. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with an unseasonably warm and dry airmass in place over the Plains. This will again promote lee troughing and well above normal temps for Wed, with all areas in the mid to upper 60s. By 12z Thu, upper low will be approaching the Four Corners region with brief upper ridging over the Plains. GFS and ECMWF agree on a brief period of upper ridging over the Plains to start the weekend with some upper energy expected to move out of the Great Basin and across the Central/Northern Plains by Sun.
/issued 204 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ Light winds and mostly clear skies will result in temperatures falling below the freezing mark for much of the CWA tonight. Tomorrow, warmer and dry weather is expected. An initial ridge axis will be to the east of the area, however the ridge will back build and become broader - stretching over much of the southern USA.
The rain will shift eastward overnight as the area of low pressure hops across northern Florida and out into the western Atlantic, ending the strong isentropic lift. Temperatures were already in the low to mid 40s across southeast Georgia, and these temperatures are forecast to remain steady overnight. Frontal boundary will lift into NE FL this evening as a warm front, as an area of low pressure moves east across the gulf. This low will track east northeast across NE FL along the frontal zone overnight, with its trailing cold front moving through early Wednesday morning. High pressure will then build from the northwest through the afternoon Wednesday.
Dry air will be ushered in behind the low, shutting off the heavier rains from the west through sunset. The upper trough will then exit east of the area along with any linger light rain. Lows tonight will be cool as drier and cooler air funnels into the area. For now highs are expected to climb into the lower 60s, but if the sun comes out earlier, some locations could warm into the mid 60s.
332 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Upper level trof axis has cleared Northwest Arkansas this afternoon with clear skies and west to southwesterly winds common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas behind the departing wave.
Low pressure was located north of Thunder Bay this afternoon with a trough/remnant warm front extending southward into central Minnesota. A cold front trailed southwestward into far southern Manitoba and the Canadian Prairies. As this cold front drops across the Northland tonight, clouds will increase across the region. Forecast soundings continue to show a lack of ice aloft ahead of the front and with temperatures cooling to right around freezing, expecting anything that falls to be more of the drizzle/freezing drizzle variety.
300 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Broad upper ridge dominated the central Rocky Mountains and High Plains early this afternoon. Upper ridge is progged by the majority of the models/ensembles to rebuild from the Rockies into the Great Plains through Wednesday night.
408 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Broad upper ridge dominated the central Rocky Mountains and High Plains early this afternoon. Upper ridge is progged by the majority of the models/ensembles to rebuild from the Rockies into the Great Plains through Wednesday night.
556 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Key Messages: - Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon - Much warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue through this week and into the weekend Warm and breezy across the region this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees with southwesterly winds gusting up to around 25 to 30 mph. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s under clear skies.
822 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure building in today begins a long stretch of dry weather lasting clear through the weekend. Low pressure passes south of the area tonight. Cold front crosses Wednesday night. A low pressure system passes south of the area tonight with negligible impacts over our area other than high clouds. Wednesday night, light precipitation may develop mainly in the northeast mountains as a cold front descends into the CWA. Precipitation would likely begin as sprinkles with light snow possible in the higher elevations, and then transitions to light snow or a wintry mix as temperatures fall overnight.
/issued 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ The upper level low pressure system continues to push across Mid- South region. Overnight temperatures should drop into the low to mid 30s. Clear skies, calm winds, and recent rainfall will likely result in at least some patchy fog and even some freezing fog mainly in west TN.
436 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Latest upper level analysis has a large ridge over the western CONUS with a trough over the eastern US. At the surface, a weak trough extends through the eastern Dakotas, with high pressure building over the forecast area. Upper ridge holds in place through the end of the week, supporting mild temps and dry weather over the region. Lee-side trough redevelops on Wednesday to the west, with general weak flow expected over the area.
533 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 An upper level low was moving slowly eastward through AR this afternoon, but cloud cover associated with this feature was remaining south of our forecast area. A crystal clear sky and southwest winds were resulting in warmer highs this afternoon, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
412 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 Dry and more seasonable conditions are ongoing today as the ridging continues. More of the same expected Wednesday, but flow aloft will turn more southwesterly in response to an approaching closed low.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will be shunted northward as a pair of lows to the south, one over the Gulf and the other off the FL coast, merge along/off the GA/SC coast by daybreak Wednesday. Most of central NC will remain dry as the lows merge to the south, however showers are likely along the NC/SC border overnight with decreasing chances at points north. Expect lows to bottom out in the low 30s along the VA border to low 40s across the south. Winds will generally be light, however expect some increasing sustained winds and gustiness in closest proximity to the low as it sits off the SC coast Wednesday morning.
930 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure will continue to move east through this evening. A low pressure system will move southeast across Ontario Tuesday night into Wednesday, extending a cold front south across the area late Wednesday.
/Issued 248 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021/ A cool/cloudy afternoon across north and central Georgia as an upper level low pressure system, currently over southern Arkansas, is responsible for sending Gulf moisture overtop the area today.
Northeast winds 10-15 knots will become north to northwest as an area of low pressure moves from the northeastern Gulf to the western Atlantic through around 12Z. Frontal boundary will lift into NE FL this evening as a warm front, as an area of low pressure moves east across the gulf. This low will track east northeast across NE FL along the frontal zone overnight, with its trailing cold front moving through early Wednesday morning. High pressure will then build from the northwest through the afternoon Wednesday.
220 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will build east into the area today through Thursday.
105 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A stalled front to the south will return northward as a warm front and provide rain late today into Wednesday. Dry and cool weather moves in for the remainder of week has high pressure builds in.
312 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 Other than slight precipitation chances north and east of Pittsburgh tonight with a crossing cold front, high pressure should maintain dry weather through the weekend. Some increase in cloud cover is expected late in the day as the front drops south across the Lower Great Lakes and NW PA. Slight precip chances are expected N of I 80 and in the ridges overnight, with marginal lake and terrain enhancement, though lowering subsidence inversions and less than optimal low lvl moisture should limit this activity.
Despite northerly surface flow and drier air filtering in, clouds overnight tonight will keep temperatures in the low to mid 40s with 40 to 43 degrees northwest of I-65, and 43 to 47 degrees to the southeast. Continued cloud cover on Wednesday will likely limit highs but some clearing could occur in the afternoon which could allow high temps to get a couple degrees warmer. For now, highs are expected to climb into the lower 60s, but if the sun comes out earlier, some locations could warm into the mid 60s.
Southwest flow aloft and modest synoptic scale ascent downstream from the trough has supported a fairly widespread coverage of very light but measurable rain (and even a few pellets of sleet) across the region early this evening. However, as deep- layer flow veers to the north-northwest in the wake of the progressive trough, we expect precipitation to end rather quickly from W-to-E by 06Z, with only a few pockets of light rain lingering across northeast AL between Midnight-2 AM CST. During these two days, northwest flow at 5h is expected ahead of a ridge position crossing the central and southern Plains. A weak cold front will drop into TN and north AL late Thursday, but no precipitation is expected.
Highs today will range from the low 70s to low 80s north/south, but will gradually increase through the week.
1239 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will build east into the area today through late week. Meanwhile, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will be shunted northward as a pair of lows to the south, one over the Gulf and the other off the FL coast, merge along/off the GA/SC coast by daybreak Wednesday. Most of central NC will remain dry as the lows merge to the south, however showers are likely along the NC/SC border overnight with decreasing chances at points north. Expect lows to bottom out in the low 30s along the VA border to low 40s across the south. Winds will generally be light, however expect some increasing sustained winds and gustiness in closest proximity to the low as it sits off the SC coast Wednesday morning.
1137 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Other than minimal snow chances with a Wednesday night cold front, high pressure should maintain dry weather through the weekend. Clear skies are expected tonight as high pressure moves east across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning, though still near seasonable levels. The models still bring a cold front southward across the region Wednesday night. Some of the precipitation may actually be realized as sprinkles or very light freezing rain, but will leave that detail out for now. Precipitation will end Thursday afternoon, with a clearing sky for Thursday night as high pressure returns from the Great Lakes.
A low pressure system will bring increasing south winds Wednesday followed by chances for light showers to mainly northwest Arizona Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. High pressure will briefly build in afterward bringing warmer temperatures heading into the weekend.
Tomorrow, westerly flow aloft will give way to a warmer and dry southwesterly flow as an upper level trough deepens over the eastern Pacific and ridging strengthens over central CONUS. Thursday, southwesterly flow aloft will continue to filter in warmer air into the region, however, trough in the eastern Pacific will start to push inland while a leading frontal boundary will stall west of the Cascades. There will be increasing mid to high level cloud cover as trough approaches, while the Cascade crests may see an isolated shower or two turning into snow flurries overnight Thursday. Afternoon highs will likely be in the 60s across much of the lower elevations Thursday, while mountain zones will again be in the 40s to low 50s.
will send a moisture starved cold front southward across the lower Great Lakes into CPA by tomorrow evening.
1155 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will move offshore tonight, while low pressure crosses the Gulf Coast and Southeast states through Wednesday, keeping rain to our south. Another high pressure system follows from the Great Lakes into Thursday night. Low pressure moves across the southern U.
1113 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low spinning over central AR with a much deeper upper low approaching the southern CA coast. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with an unseasonably warm and dry airmass in place over the Plains. This will again promote lee troughing and well above normal temps for Wed, with all areas in the mid to upper 60s. By 12z Thu, upper low will be approaching the Four Corners region with brief upper ridging over the Plains. GFS and ECMWF agree on a brief period of upper ridging over the Plains to start the weekend with some upper energy expected to move out of the Great Basin and across the Central/Northern Plains by Sun.
235 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this morning.
111 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 A clipper low pressure system was located over southern Ontario early this morning. Its cold front will stall over the region this evening, leaving a weak trough to linger over the eastern Great Lakes into Thursday morning.
941 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 (Issued 941 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021) The pressure gradient between the low to the north and high over the OH Valley will continue to weaken tonight. This will make lows tonight much warmer than last night where much of the area dropped into the teens to single digits. Lows tonight should be in the upper 20s to around freezing thanks in part to the southwesterly breezes. A cold front will work through the state. This will result in a low level thermal trough across the cwa for Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will then settle across the area for Wednesday night.
High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions through Wednesday.
Overall, a broad high pressure ridge will gradually build into the area overnight, making the westerly flow aloft become more anticyclonic, which should help further decrease the mid and high level cloudiness. /ISSUED 236 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021/ A longwave ridge amplifies over the western and central CONUS this week. A cut-off low will slip through the ridge, but not have any adverse impact on our regional weather as it moves from Southern California toward Colorado.
1022 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 An upper level low was moving slowly eastward through AR this afternoon, but cloud cover associated with this feature was remaining south of our forecast area. A crystal clear sky and southwest winds were resulting in warmer highs this afternoon, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will be slightly cooler across west central and southwest IL, but still above normal.
/Issued 646 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021/ A cool/cloudy afternoon across north and central Georgia as an upper level low pressure system, currently over southern Arkansas, is responsible for sending Gulf moisture overtop the area today. 83 An upper-level ridge centered over the central CONUS will edge eastward on Thursday, while an upper-level cutoff low riding atop the ridge traverses the Four Corners region.
For Today, surface ridging will build into the region with dry northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures are mainly in the low 40s and should cool into the mid 30s by morning. Mostly dry and warmer conditions are expected for the next several days. /issued 545 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ The upper level low pressure system continues to push across Mid- South region. Overnight temperatures should drop into the low to mid 30s. Clear skies, calm winds, and recent rainfall will likely result in at least some patchy fog and even some freezing fog mainly in west TN. High pressure moves in for Wednesday and Thursday.
210 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 Weak ridging will reside over the area in wake of the disturbance kicking east of the Mississippi Valley. Warmer temps will accompany the progressive setup with temps jumping into the 70s today with more widespread U70s and 80s for Thursday as downsloping westerly winds will help warm the region up quickly ahead of the next trough. A low hanging fruit opportunity for place like GDP and the higher terrain of Eddy and Culberson will likely push High Wind Warning criteria mid Thursday afternoon as prime mixing will aid in some strong gusts exceeding the warning criteria.
A cold front is on the way, currently pushing towards the international border. Lingering cloud cover and light southeasterly winds will keep temps a bit cooler for tomorrow, although still above seasonal averages. Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions are in the forecast as the region will be under the influence of a building upper ridge, while troughs remain anchored over both coasts.