Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
141 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 So far, it has been cooler and drier compared to this time yesterday in most locations behind the exiting cool front. West of the Divide across Southern Wyoming, the RH is expected to eventually dip into the lower teens later this afternoon, and with the westerly wind gusts already pushing 30 mph in some locations, we will keep the Rangeland Fire Danger going in those areas where fuels are not critical. Tonight, with the dry air in place, some protected areas in the western valleys should reach the low 30s after the winds calm down.
The remainder of Tues should be dry and cooler than today. Still, with ample insolation expected, have trended toward the warmer guidance. Tilly The upper RIDGE center is expected to settle over the southern High Plains or southwestern CONUS throughout this period.
Weak high pressure builds across the interior Pacific Northwest early this week, keeping generally dry conditions and warming temperatures to above normal.
VFR will continue through the next 24 hours as strong, warm high pressure builds across the area.
A weak disturbance associated with the trough will travel into eastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska late this afternoon. Seasonable temperatures are expected overnight with lows in the 50s across western Nebraska and in the low 60s across central Nebraska. On Tuesday, temperatures will be slightly below seasonable normals with highs in the lower 80s across the region.
While an isolated wind gust around 60 mph cannot be ruled out, the low level inversion appears to be preventing the severe wind gusts from transferring down to the sfc.
increasing mid/high clouds are forecast from northwest to southeast as a cold front moves into the region. Mid/upper level high pressure continued to hold across the Southern Plains at mid morning. Current temps are running a couple of degrees warmer compared to 24-hrs ago and should translate into a degree or two warmer this afternoon for most locations.
1141 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 It will be a quiet start to the work week as dry westerly flow sets up aloft in the wake of a departing trough and as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, though upper level flow will begin to shift to the southwest as high pressure centers over New Mexico. Later in the week the moisture increases across the southern half of the area in response to the closed low approaching from the Pacific Northwest. This trough will keep drier air locked in across the northwest half of the area within the modest southwest flow.
With sufficient destabilization thunderstorms may favor the northwest to north-central with the arrival of a cold front this afternoon and evening. WV imagery shows upper level low centered over central Montana slowly pushing eastward. Tonight, upper low begins to move across ND, with continued chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily across the north and east. Also continued to carry a chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly north and east closer to track of upper low.
A strong ridge is centered over the Mississippi River Valley. The Ridge will begin to break down tonight resulting in zonal to slightly Northwest flow tomorrow. Temperatures will remain very warm, but we should see a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the result of the weakening ridge.
Mid/upper level high pressure continued to hold across the Southern Plains at mid morning. Current temps are running a couple of degrees warmer compared to 24-hrs ago and should translate into a degree or two warmer this afternoon for most locations.
321 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 High pressure drifting slowly eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to extend back through central North Carolina through tonight. Southwest flow will strengthen Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
The potential for severe weather continues to evolve this afternoon as a warm front pushes northeast across Illinois. Effective shear 40-45 kts is expected to coincide with the CAPE ridge over southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois. The significant shear suggests that storms may begin as scattered supercells then evolve quickly into a QLCS and push southeast along the warm front. Developing ridging over the Rockies and putting the area back into northwest flow.
A slowly clearing from west to east will continue through the afternoon hours ahead of a cold front moving through the region. Behind the front, northwest flow brings drier conditions and cooler than average temperatures into the region. Daytime temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, this is slightly cooler than average.
133 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 H5 analysis tonight had high pressure over nern Texas with a ridge extending north into the mid and lower Missouri valley. A disturbance, in association with the trough, will track into eastern South Dakota and nern Nebraska. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible in the northeastern forecast area in association with the trough.
These disturbances are on the tail of the low pressure system that brought severe weather to the northern Rockies over the weekend. This low will continue to track east along the US-Canada border. The departure of the low will bring drying zonal flow later tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Cold front has reached central/southern MI. Slow north to south drying behind the cold front will leave an area of better low level moisture across C MI this evening. Secondary/backdoor cold front drops into the north overnight as well.
247 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 (Tonight through Tuesday) Another day, another round of brick-oven conditions across West Central Texas, as a 595 decameter ridge sits stubbornly over the state. Overnight, a weak upper-level impulse moving in from New Mexico will ride over top of the ridge into north Texas. A surface cold front will also drop out of the Central Plains tomorrow, which will increase chances for convection. As a result of increased clouds and a slightly cooler airmass moving into this area, high temperatures have been lowered into the mid to upper 90s. (Tuesday night through Monday) Weak cold front Tuesday night will bring temperatures down slightly. Going closer to the warmer NBM numbers.
The ridge to the west will amplify on Tuesday putting the central High Plains under more of a northwest flow. At the surface, cold front has just about cleared the forecast area this afternoon with northwest winds behind it. Wed-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that the Tri-State area will be situated on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge, in NW-WNW flow aloft -- a notoriously challenging /inherently low-confidence/ synoptic pattern with regard to precipitation chances. Fri-Mon: Long range guidance suggests that flow aloft over the region will back to the WSW-SW in this period as an upper level trough amplifies over the Pacific Coast / Intermountain West and an upper level ridge amplifies over the Southern Plains. Broadly speaking, expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions -- though isolated diurnal convection cannot be ruled out on any given day.
A mid/upper level trough will move across the Panhandle this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front is still on track to push through CWFA later this afternoon allowing for chances of convection this evening into tomorrow morning.
An associated cold front will have passed through the state by Tuesday morning with breezy north/northwest surface winds expected through the day. Seasonably cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s to near 70. A few lingering showers will be possible through the day before clearing in the evening as high pressure sets in.
Overpeck Upper air analysis at 500mb shows 594/595dm heights over much of Texas with the ridge so not much change at all from yesterday.
1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Weak, high pressure and slow drying has pushed the rain to the south. Cold front has reached central/southern MI. Slow north to south drying behind the cold front will leave an area of better low level moisture across C MI this evening. Secondary/backdoor cold front drops into the north overnight as well.
938 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 High pressure extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico will limit moisture in the forecast area through Tuesday.
The 00z sounding shows a strong upper level high parked directly over the area. Beneath this ridge, a warm and unstable airmass remains in place. 2C/km in the lowest 3km.
Will again expect these dangerous heat index values for Tuesday afternoon as we remain under this strong ridge, with another day of Heat Advisories expected. Toward the coast, high temps in the low to mid 90s are expected.
Cooler weather returns for the end of the week. Sunny skies can be found over northern California this afternoon as high pressure builds northwards.
Some lower clouds associated with an area of low pressure tracking across southern Canada and North Dakota could work into northeast areas overnight, but most of the area is expected to be mostly clear tonight.
521 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 So far, it has been cooler and drier compared to this time yesterday in most locations behind the exiting cool front. West of the Divide across Southern Wyoming, the RH is expected to eventually dip into the lower teens later this afternoon, and with the westerly wind gusts already pushing 30 mph in some locations, we will keep the Rangeland Fire Danger going in those areas where fuels are not critical. Tonight, with the dry air in place, some protected areas in the western valleys should reach the low 30s after the winds calm down.
Cold front should make it through most of the region by mid morning, bringing northerly to northeasterly winds behind it. /issued 402 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ A cold front is will enter NW OK this evening bringing with it a wind shift and relief from 100 degree temperatures. Severals model indicate cooler temperatures for tomorrow than reflected in the NBM, and have therefore nudged temperatures down a few degrees for tomorrow as seen in the Superblend.
VFR will persist ahead a cold front that will arrive between 15Z-18Z Tue.
715 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 High pressure extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico will limit moisture in the forecast area through Tuesday.
A cold front currently up in the plains will advance southeast tonight and is expected to be in northwest middle TN late Tue. Ahead on Tue, temps are expected to rise into the low/mid 90s, with pooling dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 70s. Weak long-wave upper trough does remain over most of eastern US but pcpn chances will be quite small. Similar pattern stays intact over the weekend although there is a hint of a vicinity cold front on Sun.
/issued 247 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ (Tonight through Tuesday) Another day, another round of brick-oven conditions across West Central Texas, as a 595 decameter ridge sits stubbornly over the state. Overnight, a weak upper-level impulse moving in from New Mexico will ride over top of the ridge into north Texas. A surface cold front will also drop out of the Central Plains tomorrow, which will increase chances for convection. As a result of increased clouds and a slightly cooler airmass moving into this area, high temperatures have been lowered into the mid to upper 90s. (Tuesday night through Monday) Weak cold front Tuesday night will bring temperatures down slightly. Going closer to the warmer NBM numbers.
402 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 A cold front is will enter NW OK this evening bringing with it a wind shift and relief from 100 degree temperatures. Severals model indicate cooler temperatures for tomorrow than reflected in the NBM, and have therefore nudged temperatures down a few degrees for tomorrow as seen in the Superblend.
537 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Some cumulus clouds popped over the high terrain this afternoon in the trailing westerly flow behind yesterday's departing trough. This dry, westerly flow will remain in place Tuesday with the high pressure ridge elongated across the south.
1039 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 An upper-level composite analysis this evening shows a sprawling mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over Texas and Louisiana with moderate to strong east-northeast flow above 20,000 feet elevation over the Florida Keys. In addition, dry air was present in some key layers within the lower and mid troposphere, as evidenced by a 9C dewpoint depression at the 850mb level.
608 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Mid level trough (700 mb) helping to generate thunderstorms mainly north of the KPVW/KLBB/KCDS terminals.
High pressure will keep southwest to west winds in place across the waters for the next several days.
312 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Some cumulus clouds popped over the high terrain this afternoon in the trailing westerly flow behind yesterday's departing trough. This dry, westerly flow will remain in place Tuesday with the high pressure ridge elongated across the south.
Seeing a few passing mid-high clouds across the area with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak trough moving through the region. The ridge will flatten but temperatures will warm quickly and the combination of temperature and dewpoints will lead to heat indices over 105 for the central and southern valley and a heat advisory has been issued for tomorrow. As a trough races across the area and the front moves southeastward, severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon/evening with damaging winds being the main threat. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 97 76 91 / 0 40 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 95 74 88 / 10 50 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 74 95 74 89 / 10 60 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 91 70 85 / 10 60 80 60 TN.
As of 20Z Monday afternoon a broad midlevel ridge axis remains across the Southern Plains with modest southwesterly flow across the Central Plains. Another quiet day is expected for Tuesday as surface ridging builds into the area, yielding clear skies and light winds. A few thunderstorms may develop across the High Plains, but anticipate any activity to remain well west of the forecast area, where better low-level theta-e resides.
632 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 High pressure extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico will limit moisture in the forecast area through Tuesday.
315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Showers continue working across the region this morning in association with an upper low in southern Manitoba. Model guidance continues the light shower activity through the morning hours with cooler than average temperatures prevailing through the day.
A weak cold front will shift winds from the north to northeast 12-18Z with occasional gusts. This will cause the ridge to shift west Tuesday with the center moving over Far W TX then to NM on Wednesday. A weaker ridge drifts back east over the weekend as a trough works down the West Coast.
236 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The main forecast concerns this morning are both in the short term, including ongoing dangerous heat and humidity and convective potential associated with a slowly moving cold front. Regarding the heat and humidity concerns, convective cloud cover will likely keep temperatures lower even across areas that remain ahead of the front, with more substantially cooler conditions - around 5 to 10 degrees cooler - across most of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
A warming trend will continue through late week as high pressure builds over California from the east.
352 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Surface cold front has made its way through much of the CWA this morning. This will result in somewhat "cooler" high temperatures today. Tomorrow, the upper high that has been dominating our weather as of late, will be re-centered over NM placing the FA in NW flow aloft.
A low-amplitude ridge is in place near the Four Corners region this evening, maintaining a dry near-zonal flow across Utah. Given the lack of moisture, this is expected to mainly result in a bit of an increase in cloud cover, but measurable precipitation will be unlikely even if isolated high-based convection initiates over the higher terrain.
Thunderstorms will be possible late today just as a low level southeasterly upslope flow returns to the high plains while modest westerlies prevail aloft. With slightly lower H85 temperatures spreading into the area, look for highs pushing the lower 90s(F) this afternoon with a few upper 80s(F) not out of the question further north and west.
The sub-tropical ridge continues to have a strong hold on our weather pattern at the present time, but the good news is things are beginning to change. This weak disturbance will begin to weaken the ridge today as it slowly moves south through tomorrow. In the mean time, with the strong ridging in place and somewhat lighter winds, today should be downright miserable. For tomorrow, this weak disturbance is expected to be across Central Texas with the center of the ridge forced to the west. This is a few degrees cooler than today, but with the slight increase in moisture, heat index values will be near the same and another heat advisory appears likely for Wednesday afternoon.
1027 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Drier and warmer weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Fair weather ridge aloft currently over the area will retrograde moving through mid-week as a synoptic upper trof advances across the plains and into the eastern CONUS.
The trough that brought the weekend of severe weather has moved off to the northeast into Saskatchewan but the wrap around moisture is combining with some modest instability to produce some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. For Tuesday and Wednesday, weak upper level ridging will attempt to build over the region, resulting in mostly dry conditions and a warming trend.
Dew points have risen to the mid 70s within the deepening warm sector, and as surface temps continue to rise into the low to mid 90s for most of the local area, heat indices will quickly rise into the 105 to perhaps 110 degree range. The other concern for today is with the potential for strong to severe storms to develop ahead of a cold front this afternoon into the early evening. Enhanced flow aloft rounding the periphery of the weakening mid-level ridge will maintain bulk shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range, though shear will begin to wane as the evening progresses. Cooler temps will follow in the wake of the cold front through the mid-week with a noticeable improvement in humidity levels by Wednesday as dew points drop into the mid to low 60s.
151 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Weak, high pressure and slow drying has pushed the rain to the south. Cold front has reached central/southern MI. Slow north to south drying behind the cold front will leave an area of better low level moisture across C MI this evening. Secondary/backdoor cold front drops into the north overnight as well. Another trough may impact the area Wednesday but models continue to struggle on the details of this weakening system (timing and placement).
A cold front continues to push southward across the area and is imminently passing KLBB. /issued 608 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ Mid level trough (700 mb) helping to generate thunderstorms mainly north of the KPVW/KLBB/KCDS terminals.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern and eastern North Dakota through this morning as the low pushes southeast, with showers coming to an end later this afternoon as high pressure builds in.
It's just the area of the CWA northeast of a line from Eureka to Warner to Hayti that is into an area of low stratus clouds or (dense) fog or a combination of the two, where a surface trof continues to hang out at this hour. It's debatable whether any isolated weak showers will get going out east of the James River valley today as the upper level low pressure circulation passes by/moving southeastward across the region.
330 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 A fast moving wave of low pressure will slide east across the Mason Dixon Line late today. Weak isentropic lift ahead of approaching low pressure over the midwest is producing scattered showers across central Pa early this morning. Radar trends and near term model output support the highest POPs across the northwest counties and the lowest over the southeast through dawn. Mostly overcast skies and increasing humidity will result in a much warmer night than those recently, with min temps ranging from the low 60s north, to near 70F over the Lower Susq Valley.
309 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Early this morning a cold front was pushing through the area, with a complex of thunderstorms out ahead of it, mainly across central Missouri. Temperatures will be some 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs mainly in the 80s, and perhaps near or slightly above 90 in far south central Missouri. Mid level ridging shifts westward, placing the mid section of the country in a northwest flow regime.
A cold front will approach the state on Tuesday with the front entering northern Arkansas during the morning hours. As a result, northern Arkansas will see a slight break from the high temps and humidity on Tuesday.
A slowly clearing from west to east will continue through the afternoon hours ahead of a cold front moving through the region. Behind the front, northwest flow brings drier conditions and cooler than average temperatures into the region. Daytime temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, this is slightly cooler than average. A more fall-like day is expected on Wednesday with even cooler temperatures as a high pressure builds in. Return flow from the departing high pressure will bring moisture, heat and humidity back into the region Wednesday night into the weekend.
Latest guidance shows slightly cooler temperatures today than the going forecast had, so high temperatures today were trimmed back slightly. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and southern U. 12z Wed with a broad 500 mb trough across the ern and northern U. Troughing digs into the area through Fri morning. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over the northern U. with ridging over the southern half of the U. Troughing will remain over the area through Sun. Ridging then amplifies into the Rockies and plains 12z Mon with troughing in the ern U. The upper Great Lakes then gets on the northern periphery of the ridge Mon into Tue in the ring of fire scenario again with the westerlies to the north of the area.
High pressure will remain in control through mid week. We're still looking at the potential for late week storms as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. Expect VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and overall winds today into tomorrow morning under weak high pressure. Expect dry conditions, overall light winds, and mostly clear skies today under weak high pressure. Wednesday a weak wave passing well to the north bringing near critical winds for ridge tops and the Snake River plain.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop along the track of this low, primarily across eastern and southeastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Lows will be a few degrees cooler Wednesday morning as skies clear out. High pressure will drift across the Upper Midwest midweek and slide to the east late week allowing for a return flow to bring warmer air north gradually through the period.
The main concern then becomes a slow moving cold front and associated short wave in the WNW flow aloft, moving toward N GA through the day and moving into far N GA late tonight. Region remains in the base of a broad, weak upper trough between the central U. and western Atlantic upper ridges.
Cooler air and light winds will be in place tonight and, when combined with plenty of low-level moisture from heavy rains across portions of eastern South Dakota earlier today, patchy fog looks like a possibility into Tuesday morning especially along the Coteau. Also, a cold front will usher in cooler and drier air (highs around 10 degrees below average) and low clouds mainly across the northern half of South Dakota. CAA will continue through the day, and northwest winds will be on the increase through the afternoon as high pressure builds in and the pressure gradient tightens. Quiet, cool and dry weather is anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as high pressure settles in.