Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly clear skies elsewhere have resulted in cooler temperatures tonight with values hovering right around normal for early October. As far as high temperatures go, it'll be a warmer (though still seasonable) day across the western slope in response to mostly sunny skies with upper 60s to mid 70s expected for most valley locations. Upper level ridging will quickly build overhead beginning on Sunday night. The start of the work week will see weak ridging persist over eastern Utah and western Colorado while a closed low develops off the coast of southern California and a broad Pacific trough approaches the northwestern states. With ridging aloft we will see quiet conditions as well as the warmest temperatures of the forecast period with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s for the valleys (and even approach the low 80s in southeast Utah).
436 AM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 An upper level low continues to move eastward across the central plains to the southeastern coast. Isolated showers associated with this system will remain in the higher terrain parts of Summit and Park counties Saturday afternoon due to a lack of favorable conditions. Another ridge pattern will take place Saturday night into Sunday bringing a dry pattern. On Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will bring mainly dry weather to the region.
This increase in moisture, along with ample CAPE and little inhibition, helped with the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Keys and Straits of Florida this morning. High pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic is currently supporting fresh breezes across the coastal waters, with marine observation platforms recording winds ranging from 17 to 19 knots. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, and dewpoints have briefly dropped down to near 70 degrees.
/DL/ Today and tonight: Rain chances will begin to increase across the area with the approach of a mid/upper trough/closed low. Heading into tonight, a cold front associated with the upper trough will push through the ArkLaTex. /DL/ The upper ridge will be east of the region, offshore of the Carolinas. The upper trough that was to our west will be pushing across the Lower Miss Valley at the start of the period. This will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms across our region for late in the weekend with the trough axis across the forecast area.
504 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Light southwesterly flow aloft continues across the the TN Valley this morning, as the region remains to the north of a mid-level subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday given the greater coverage of mid/high-level clouds, with valley location reaching the lower 80s and elevated terrain remaining in the upper 70s. Deep-layer ascent related to the the warm/moist advection regime downstream from the trough will support an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity beginning late this evening, as convection begins to spread northeastward into the local area from central AL.
408 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Today and tonight: Rain chances will begin to increase across the area with the approach of a mid/upper trough/closed low. Heading into tonight, a cold front associated with the upper trough will push through the ArkLaTex. /DL/ The upper ridge will be east of the region, offshore of the Carolinas. The upper trough that was to our west will be pushing across the Lower Miss Valley at the start of the period. This will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms across our region for late in the weekend with the trough axis across the forecast area.
518 AM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Across the region this morning, much of the area remains cloudy due to the slow passage of an upper low, which is moving slowly eastward from extreme southwest Kansas. Light rainfall continues to pinwheel around the northern periphery of the upper low, bringing light scattered showers to mainly areas south of the Interstate. Going into today, the influence of the upper low and associated light showers will wane from west to east as the morning progresses with only a few showers in the far east by midday. The arrival of the ridge and subsequent cooler airmass will give the CWA highs only into the lower and mid 70s.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than they have been in recent days. Due to extensive cloud cover and showers, temperatures will be several degrees cooler today than they were yesterday. Vigorous upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over southeast Colorado will approach from the west tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
1015 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through tonight. A cold front combined with an upper level low should slowly drift toward the Mid Atlantic, which will bring chances of rain throughout the upcoming week. High pressure should head further east later this afternoon and tonight, which will allow increasing low-level moisture across the area. A slight chance of showers exists later today across the Blue Ridge near Boone and Jefferson, but most other locations will remain dry.
Today and tonight: A low pressure system across northwest WI this morning, is expected to shift gradually eastward into northeast WI by late this afternoon, then to central Lake Michigan late tonight. Increased moisture and weak forcing ahead of the low and along the associated cold front this afternoon, will lead to increasing chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms into this evening.
Precipitation chances may return later in the week along with much cooler temperatures. The next weather system of interest is a low-pressure system currently located over Alaska and British Columbia.
Above normal temperatures continue today with highs near 80 degrees, but trend cooler into the work week. Ridging overhead breaks down this morning as vorticity from the west and southwest moves in along with the low level jet from the west. Forecast confidence degrades as the interaction between the individual waves is handled differently in the models as the upper low stalls nearby. As such, cannot completely rule out a shower through the upcoming work week, but it is expected to be light as columnar moisture underneath upper lows are generally dry. At least 50 percent cloud cover can be expected to continue with the forcing for the upper low remaining nearby.
759 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Rain chances return early tomorrow with an approaching low pressure system. Dry, quiet weather will prevail today under high pressure. The ridge axis of high pressure weakens a bit and slides east allowing for the frontal system to push into the region. Assist from a weak jet streak into the lower Great Lakes will enhance shower and thunderstorm development into the day on Sunday increasing moisture and lift.
637 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The upper-level ridge that has been positioned over the Midwest the last couple of days is beginning to shift further eastward as the Southwest cut-off low begins to eject into the Great Plains. Forcing from weak, subtle vorticity maxima ahead of the approaching cut-off low has utilized the moist, weakly unstable air mass over the CWA to produce scattered showers and a brief thunderstorm or two this morning. The chance for this convection will diminish west to east as the slow moving cold front makes its way through the CWA, exiting during the late afternoon/early evening.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than they have been in recent days. The upper level low remains out to the southwest over KS/OK this morning. However, a couple of waves out ahead of the low are bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region this morning. Due to extensive cloud cover and showers, temperatures will be several degrees cooler today than they were yesterday. Vigorous upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over southeast Colorado will approach from the west tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Multiple rainfall records fell across Harlingen and Brownsville over the past 24 hours, leaving the atmosphere rather worked over this morning across the lower Rio Grande Valley. The mid level trough and upper level jet streak are expected to gradually shift northward, slowly diminishing the instability across Deep South Texas into Sunday. Many locations across the lower RGV could be primed for another round of localized flooding, if showers or thunderstorms persist.
/issued 201 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021/ Weak upper level ridge across Gulf of Mexico and Florida to shift south this weekend as a closed low near the Oklahoma Panhandle opens up and moves east.
Showers are also occurring over parts of the Northern Plains and is in response to an upper level trough/forcing per water vapor satellite imagery. Then upper level trough will move across the forecast area late this morning into Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous couple of days today into Sunday. based on clouds/potential for showers and cooler airmass slowly advecting into the forecast area.
An upper level low in the plains will make its way eastward through this evening and into Sunday morning. Several synoptic and some CAMS models continue some shower activity overnight near the upper low, but the storm activity is expected to shift east of the region by later this evening. The upper low/trough will shift east of the Mississippi River by Sunday morning and bring. The Ozarks region will remain under the influence of the upper trough as it digs south to near the Gulf. A rather high amplitude ridge develops from the desert Southwest into the Great Lakes region across the Plains. Through the middle of the week the upper trough becomes cutoff and lingers underneath a broad ridge.
For temperatures, Sunday's highs look to be 1-3 C warmer than today's readings.
Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east late today and early this evening as an upper low that was located over southwest Kansas earlier this morning moves across central Kansas. Based on the latest model runs on moisture wrapping around this upper low and location of the 500mb deformation zone it appears that any lingering precipitation will be around and east of the Larned, Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas between 4 pm and 7 pm CDT. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s west and north of Garden City to the lower 50s across south central Kansas. On Sunday a weak upper level trough will cross southwest Kansas during the day but moisture appears limited ahead of this upper wave.
255 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 A diffuse, slow-moving cold front extends from south-central IA to eastern OK. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late this evening and overnight as lift increases at the leading edge of an upper-level trough forecast to pivot across the Midwest and the cold front reaches the CWA. The upper-level trough will advance northeastward into the Great Lakes on Sunday, but will be closely follow by another upper-level diving into the Central Plains. Despite the diffuse cold front clearing the CWA by late Sunday morning, residual low-level moisture could yield enough instability to drive isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, especially across IL where the moisture will be greatest.
This low will continue its slow slog eastward through the rest of today and tonight.
Highs will be a bit above normal with the synoptic ridge remaining overhead through the weekend. Dry, and a bit warmer tomorrow, again with mostly light winds.
Mid level trough that focused recent rain is pushing east as a jet streaks noses into the PacNW reintroducing ridging into the Northern Plains. Surface ridging currently in eastern North Dakota is expected to influence tonight's weather helping keep keep wind light. Ridging over the area is expected to eventually give way to upstream troughing, bringing southwesterly flow over the region.
An upper level low continues to move eastward across the central plains to the southeastern coast. Isolated showers associated with this system will remain in the higher terrain parts of Summit and Park counties Saturday afternoon due to a lack of favorable conditions. Another ridge pattern will take place Saturday night into Sunday bringing a dry pattern. On Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will bring mainly dry weather to the region.
Rain chances will decrease Sunday evening as the trough axis moves east of the area, but an approaching surface front and a developing upper level low pressure will keep scattered rain chances over the area. The front will eventually dissipate, but the upper low will spend the rest of the work week meandering around the Southeast and eventually the Ohio River Valley. This will put us in a mainly cloudy, cooler, and showery pattern.
Late in the week, another system may bring another round do precipitation, with snow possible for the high terrain of the eastern Sierra.
304 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Weak diurnal instability under the upper low spinning over south central Kansas will continue to promote isolated storms within the overall area of widely showers across south central/southeast Kansas into the early evening. Area of scattered to more numerous showers within the narrow deformation zone will continue to affect portions of central Kansas either side of the highway 50 corridor with most precip across the entire area dissipating/shifting east before midnight. Otherwise, a drier and seasonably warm regime will close out the weekend as the departing upper low is replaced by an upper trof in the northwest flow moving from the northern Plains across the Midwest and central conus by Sunday night.
137 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through tonight. A cold front combined with an upper level low should slowly drift toward the Mid Atlantic by late Sunday, which will bring chances of rain throughout the upcoming week. There is a slight chance of showers this afternoon across the Blue Ridge near Boone and Jefferson, but most other locations will remain dry. High pressure will head offshore this evening, and clouds will increase from the west overnight due to a cold front approaching the Mississippi River. Otherwise, the cold front and its associated upper level low should head into the Ohio River Valley. However, chances appear low that these showers will reach the Blue Ridge, so the Piedmont will likely have another unseasonably warm day with highs in the mid 80s.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper trough/low will continue to move across the central/southern Plains through tonight. Sunday is expected to be dry and maybe a few degrees warmer (highs in the 80s) with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds.
451 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Rain chance returns tonight and tomorrow with approaching low pressure. Pre-frontal showers will continue into Sunday morning as the low pressure system lingers across the region.
Scattered convection expected mid afternoon through early evening across nern OK as upper low translates toward the area.
837 AM PDT Sat Oct 2 2021 A warm weekend is in store with mostly sunny skies as light offshore flow persists thanks to high pressure over the Great Basin.
Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Rain chances will begin to increase across the area with the approach of a mid/upper trough/closed low. Heading into tonight, a cold front associated with the upper trough will push through the ArkLaTex. /DL/ The upper ridge will be east of the region, offshore of the Carolinas. The upper trough that was to our west will be pushing across the Lower Miss Valley at the start of the period. This will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms across our region for late in the weekend with the trough axis across the forecast area.
The high resolution models are showing a slight breeze Sunday afternoon in a small area impacting southeast Fremont (including South Pass) and northeast Sweetwater counties, where slightly elevated fire conditions are expected.
248 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Westerly flow on the backside of the departing upper low as well as moist upslope flow is helping to support some showery development over and near the mountains this afternoon.
129 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 An induced upper ridge to our west will be moving in providing a warm-up over the next couple days.
1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough moving across the TX Panhandle, which will continue to bring some lift across West Central Texas. The highest coverage of showers/storms will likely be across the Big Country closer to where the stronger lift is. As the day goes on today, any showers/storms should move from west to east across the region and move off to the east by late afternoon as the upper level trough axis moves east across the Central Plains. Behind the trough axis, expect clearing skies and a warmer day, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, upper level ridging will start to move into the region, bringing dry weather and mostly clear skies. Expect lows in the low 60s.
Meanwhile, our main upper level trough over the central Plains states today shifting to the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon/evening. Given extensive cloud cover and expected precipitation coverage, highs will be tempered in the lower 80's.
Hennig (Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper trough is centered over the Central/Southern Plains with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at the base of the trough. The previously mentioned upper trough moves eastward on Sunday and expands to include the Midwest region.
Satellite loops today show moisture streaming into the Pacific Northwest, that has mostly been in the form of increasing cloud cover, but a light shower cannot be ruled out in the high terrain of northwest Montana this evening. Model guidance remain in good agreement for a trough to dig down the west coast and slowly into the Pacific Northwest during the first half of this week. A change to cooler is looking more likely in north-central Idaho and western Montana for the second half of the week, and there will also be increased chances for showers. While confidence is high for the overall change to cooler and showery for the end of the week, there are still considerable differences on the evolution of the trough, so rain amounts have a wide range of opportunities.
Mostly clear conditions will continue through the day Sunday, with temperatures warming up into the lower 70s east to upper 70s/lower 80s across the central and west. Our area will remain under upper level ridging for much of the upcoming week, maintaining dry and mostly clear conditions along with warm temperatures.
High pressure over Virginia will sink south and east through the weekend, keeping the area dry with above normal temperatures.
222 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Brief upper ridging tonight will move off to the E and give way to zonal flow for Sunday. Lee troughing strengthens tonight, supporting gusty winds in the gap areas and foothills. Sunday will be warmer than today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper ridging will be over the area Sun. night with a lee trough again affecting the gap areas and foothills.
A broad, complex upper level trough is in place over the region this afternoon as a lifting southern stream vort max partially phases with a digging northern stream trough. Meanwhile, at the surface, falling heights usher a surface cold front through the region this afternoon. Post-frontal lower tropospheric winds do begin to increase from west to east overnight and have likewise kept the highest fog probabilities east of the Mississippi River. Highs tomorrow will also hinge on how quickly (or if) the low stratus can clear out.
/Issued 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021/ /Through Sunday/ A weak cold front is making its way through the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area as of this writing, with light northwesterly winds already being observed at Fort Worth Meacham (KFTW) and Fort Worth Alliance (KAFW) airports. While the wind shift will be quick, winds will remain light behind the cold front, so unless you've got a close eye on a weathervane or a flag, you might not notice it. Thunderstorm chances will end by this evening as the cold front exits to our southeast.
Otherwise drier air filtering in behind the wave should continue to slowly clear the low stratus which has blanketed the forecast area for the past couple of days. First half of the upcoming work week will be dominated by a building upper ridge across the northern Plains, as our departing wave digs southward through the Mississippi Valley, and eventually develops a weak Rex Block midweek as it stalls over the lower-mid Mississippi Valley.
212 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Across the region this morning, much of the area remains cloudy due to the slow passage of an upper low, which is moving slowly eastward from extreme southwest Kansas. Light rainfall continues to pinwheel around the northern periphery of the upper low, bringing light scattered showers to mainly areas south of the Interstate. Going into today, the influence of the upper low and associated light showers will wane from west to east as the morning progresses with only a few showers in the far east by midday. The arrival of the ridge and subsequent cooler airmass will give the CWA highs only into the lower and mid 70s.
Weak lift ahead of an upper level low pressure system forced scattered convection across the region overnight. 65 inches of precipitable water, therefore, additional heavy downpours are likely today as the upper level low approaches from the west. Meanwhile, with the upper low getting closer, deep shear increases between 30 and 40 knots.
130 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 An induced upper ridge to our west will be moving in providing a warm-up over the next couple days.
239 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over west central KS. A midlevel dry slot extended up the southeast side of the upper low, from northwest TX into the western Ozarks. By early overnight, the upper low will have moved from west central KS into central MO. Despite modest midlevel lapse rates, height falls and low level forcing along the surface pressure trof may be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms. By midday Sunday, most of the showers will have translated east to the TN River, with the upper trof. Drying behind Sunday morning's trof passage will be short-lived, as additional upper level energy digs south through the plains Sunday night.
1108 AM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Across the region this morning, much of the area remains cloudy due to the slow passage of an upper low, which is moving slowly eastward from extreme southwest Kansas. Light rainfall continues to pinwheel around the northern periphery of the upper low, bringing light scattered showers to mainly areas south of the Interstate. Going into today, the influence of the upper low and associated light showers will wane from west to east as the morning progresses with only a few showers in the far east by midday. The arrival of the ridge and subsequent cooler airmass will give the CWA highs only into the lower and mid 70s.
Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue across this area through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening before the mid-level trough moves east into the Mississippi Valley.
256 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure will shift offshore this evening and tonight. A cold front will approach slowly from the west early in the upcoming work week as an upper level low develops and lingers across the eastern U. Deep layer ridging centered will gradually slide east towards the coast through tonight. Lows tonight will be milder as well, ranging from upper 50s in the cooler spots to lower 60s elsewhere.
109 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Rain chances return early tomorrow with an approaching low pressure system. Clouds will increase throughout the afternoon/evening as high pressure skirts east and a low pressure system moves into the Ohio River Valley. Pre-frontal showers will continue into Sunday morning as the low pressure system lingers across the region.