Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NEAR HICKORY RIDGE ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TO NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE. MUCH OF WHICH COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EXTREME NORTH WEST TENNESSEE. AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BELOW FREEZING. CONCERN FOR CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS PROMPTED THE CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB.
228 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 THE DEEP TROUGH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 06Z TONIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR A TYR. AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
240 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE FL/GA LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH COULD LEASD TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AND PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WARMER AIR WITH THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST. ALTHOUGH BISMARCK RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND SNOWFALL. AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. A STRONG WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SHOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND FLATTENS IT.
THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
Will keep the winter weather advisory going for parts of west central and southwest IL until 6 pm due to patchy freezing drizzle. The threat for patchy freezing drizzle should end later this evening as the low level stratus cloud deck shifts east of the area. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer on Monday, finally getting well above the freezing mark for much of the area after a cold weekend.
335 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front has moved through much of the Big Country this afternoon and should move through the Concho Valley/Heartland late this afternoon and then through the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Expect north winds of 5 to 10 mph and slightly cooler temperatures behind the front.
ANOTHER TROF IS POSITIONED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THRU NM/AZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH.
1235 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST TODAY WILL MAKE WAY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
However, much drier air in the lower/mid levels combined with a relatively weaker flow aloft will hinder precip chances across the region overnight. A prevailing westerly downslope flow near the surface combined with the increased cloud cover will help warm the lower levels. Warmer high temperatures can be expected Monday as well as the general westerly downslope flow persists. Highs will climb well into the 50s(F) across central Kansas Monday afternoon with the lower to mid 60s(F) possible in southwest Kansas.
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WAS RIDGING SW INTO THE ERN GULF. A FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FM THIS LOW TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX. ALLOWING IT TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUES. UPR LVL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A TROF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK.
245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAMPLE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SURFACES SUCH AS ROADS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE FREEZING EVEN WHEN THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32. TRIED TO KEEP MORE FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1054 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH IT. /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. THE PARENT TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF THUNDERSNOW. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE RED RIVER INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW.
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE TOPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 18Z TAF issuance A weak cold front is moving through the terminals currently with gusty northerly winds behind it.
1232 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Freezing drizzle will remain possible early this evening across far south-central Missouri, but the passage of an 850 mb front should shut that potential down rather quickly. We have gone on the high side of temperature guidance for overnight lows as we are expecting abundant mid and high level cloud cover.
252 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS TODAY HAS WEDGED IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL ANTICIPATE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED BOTH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS /EVEN JUST A GLAZE/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB INFLUENCE SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AREAS DEEP WITHIN THE WEDGE WILL NOT SEE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IT'S COME DOWN TO A BATTLE OVER HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURE WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. WARM AIR WILL USHER IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION INTO MOSTLY RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. WITH EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THE PLATEAU WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN.
337 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
AND HOLDS SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE BUT RISING ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MORNING.
Snow will continue to change over to sleet, freezing rain, or freezing drizzle through the rest of the afternoon. By evening all precipitation should be either freezing rain or freezing drizzle. With regional radar showing the back edge of precipitation echoes advancing eastward over the far northwestern and western sections of our CWA at the time of this writing, one would question precipitation chances through the rest of the afternoon, but with plenty of moisture in the 1000-850MB layer and good upglide on the I275/I280 surfaces it implies the possibility of freezing drizzle this evening into the early overnight hours. After midnight tonight temperatures are expected to begin warming from the south to just above freezing over the southeast half of our CWA, so changed precip there to liquid (drizzle).
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN EXPECTED. /ISSUED 401 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE SECOND TROUGH HELPS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID MONDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES, HOWEVER, BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNSATURATED, ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW GRAINS AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE, SO NO CHANGE TO PTYPE FCST ATTM.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG TROUGH AXIS VCNTY KCDS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST BUT AGAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS FOUND OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH. A DISTINCT PUSH OF LOWER THETA-E AIR ON LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WAS NOTED ACROSS NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT POPS WERE LOWERED A FAIR AMOUNT OVER OUR NWRN COUNTIES TODAY AS THIS LOWER PWAT AIR TAKES GRASP. BUT ELSEWHERE A SMATTERING OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY- DRIVEN TSTORMS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. TUESDAY COULD STILL SEE SOME POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE MORNING AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER OR CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT.
THE SURFACE FLOW WAS FAIRLY WEAK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 21Z LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SKIRT THE REGION. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BUT DID HANG ONTO A SMALL POP ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER IN CASE THE COLD FRONT HANGS UP AND A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE INTO OUR COUNTIES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION EARLY TUESDAY WHICH COULD SPAWN SOME ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND COULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.
120 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LOW GENERATING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BRINGING WITH IT THE UNSTABLE AIR IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UT AND WILL PASS CLOSELY BY AS IT SHIFTS INTO WY AND CO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND PUSH THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY AREA MORE INTO MONTANA. LOOK FOR WARMING AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES NORTHWARD. THE STRONG RIDGING WILL MEAN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES WITH A TROUGH ON FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME MOUNTAIN AND HIGHLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO STRONG WIND POSSIBLE WITH THE FRI TROUGH.
ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST (WINCH IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM INFLUENCE OF RIDGE IN THE LL) SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY MARINE BASED -SHRA SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. (FROM PREV DISC) LITTLE CHANGE WITH AXIS OF DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS RATHER LIGHT. MAYBE NOT QUITE AS MUGGY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS CLOSER. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MAY EVEN SHIFT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE QUASI STATIONARY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
AS CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS. ECM SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE IMPROVED STORM MOTIONS AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK, EXPECT A CONTINUED PATTERN OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
309 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS VOID OF ANY ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
356 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND CLEARING SKIES.
338 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. LIMITED INSOLATION IN VERY MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF MINIMAL INTENSITY THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESSES THE H5 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. 35KT 850 MB JET OVER THE CENTRAL GLAKS THIS AFTERNOON PROPOGATES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
Main cold front draped across central Iowa southwestward into southeast Nebraska with another weaker boundary extending from east central Kansas into the Kansas City metro area. Persistent ridging over the southeast has allowed a steady stream of deep moisture to stream into the area ahead of this front. Additionally, the high precipitable water/tropical airmass will lead to extremely efficient rainfall making storms.
A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS MORE CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED BUT HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE LOW STILL LACKS A WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH BY THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. ON WHERE THE LOW WILL COME ASHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS DEEP INTRUSION INTO WEST TEXAS OF RIDGE BEHIND OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THESE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA A THE TROPICAL GULF LOW APPROACHES THE COASTAL REGIONS OF TEXAS.
428 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
OTHERWISE A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY FOR GULF FACING BEACHES. EXPECT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL BROAD BUT STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO ORGANIZE BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT O'CONNOR TUESDAY MORNING. MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE WIND GRIDS TO SHOW THIS TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.
I MAY VENTURE TO SAY THAT WE COULD SEE SOME DRYING AND EVEN SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
354 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM APOSTLE ISLANDS TO KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A BAND OF 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. 00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. OVERALL PREFER THE LOWER GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE THESE CAPES LESS THAN 750 J/KG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE HI-RES MODELS OF THE ARW/NMM AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STAYING JUST BELOW 100. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF MOVES UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW US TO COOL TO THE LOW 70S BY MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
AT 12Z MONDAY A 500MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A SUBTROPICAL LOW WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 700MB AND 500MB TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED FROM WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN IOWA WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. QUIET TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA IS SLOWLY REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
Afternoon high temperatures should be generally in the low to middle 80s for most areas through this week. An abundance of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere combined with a frontal boundary moving into northwest Missouri will keep clouds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow morning.
AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD SLINKING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WAVE IS SET TO MAKE A DENT INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ASSUMING MORE SUN IS AVAILABLE THAN TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN US.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WASH OUT. PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHICH WILL BE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL KS. TEMPS TO START THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WILL FEEL WARMER DUE TO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
344 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 LOOKING LIKE A QUIET EVENING AHEAD AS DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVES IN AS HIGH PRESSURE DROP SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR MOST WITH SOME UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN NW MN POSSIBLE. AND WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS HERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TUE WITH MORE SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
259 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THAT HIGH PRESSURE IS ACTING TO MITIGATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. JUST NORTHEAST OF THIS WARM FRONT THERE WILL BE A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME THE AREA OF BETTER LIFT, LATE DAY INSTABILITY, AND WEAKER CAP NEAR THIS WARM FRONT LATE DAY WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER BASED ON WHERE THE 700MB TO 500MB TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED LATE DAY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HERE SHOULD BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE CULPRIT CONTINUES TO BE A VERY WARM AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF COAST STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK TO MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM AROUND LA CROSSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST AS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S. WARM MID-LEVELS AROUND 700MB AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
COLD FRONT HAS MEANDERED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. AS THE HIGH RETREATS EAST ON TUESDAY.