Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
311 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Southeast Michigan remains firmly tucked immediately south of high pressure heading into tonight. Standard looking mixing profile capped at the 850 level, but with the diurnal thermal response receiving a subtle boost as the low level gradient becomes light southwesterly.
533 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region today.
Deep easterly flow remains in place across the region with high pressure to the north and Tropical Depression 9 well to the south.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a low pressure system positioned off the WRN Canadian coast as a weak disturbance was being swept NE toward Oregon.
(Issued 314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016) Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated upper ridging in place across the confluence of the OH/MS River Valleys, with a large upper trof beginning to come ashore in the PACNW and TD9 continuing to churn over Wrn Cuba. Another area of low pressure remains in place just off the TX/LA coast. Most areas will remain dry, with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
331 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, showers and thunderstorms are expanding in coverage across the Permian Basin south through the Lower Trans Pecos and into western Crockett County. Farther east, an upper level low located across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into East Texas is interacting with a tropical-like moist and unstable atmosphere in the lower levels to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the DFW area south into the Hill Country region.
256 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Isolated convection noted over parts of the CWA this afternoon on the northern fringe of an upper low currently over southwestern Colorado. and dissipate entirely this evening as the low levels cool and stabilize. The upper low will weaken and open overnight while an upper ridge builds northeast across Wyoming. This upper ridge then looks to hold across Wyoming into Colorado Tuesday through Weds and should cap off the atmosphere for the most part thus warm and generally dry weather expected across the CWA.
309 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Quiet weather conditions expected early this week with high pressure in place across the northeast.
Low stratus along southward moving cold front should break up into the early afternoon. Otherwise, all indications with the cam models show shower/storm development along this cold front this afternoon and evening. Steady southerly winds are common, with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This trough/cold front will sink and extend from our MN counties through central SD, and become the focus for shower and thunderstorm development coinciding with peak daytime heating. Behind the cold front, high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and western ND at 00Z Tuesday will slowly sink a ridge across the region.
332 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the north country on Tuesday.
124 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday night.
Upper level ridging prevailing over our area today keeping skies mostly clear and continuing the ongoing warming trend with temperatures running 2-4 deg F above yday at most locations. This will result in increased winds below the passes in the Kern County mountains and deserts tonight as p-grads strengthen and will also bring slightly cooler daytime temperatures on Tuesday to the San Joaquin Valley as marine cooled air spills in. Some high clouds might stream across the northern portions of our area, but precipitation is not expected as RH progs are indicating the lower and mid levels remaining dry across our area.
547 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 19z/2pm water vapor imagery shows upper high centered over southwest Indiana. with fetch of deep moisture flowing around the high from the Gulf of Mexico N/NW into Missouri/Iowa and western Illinois. Rain chances will become more focused during the day Tuesday as a cold front currently over the Northern Plains approaches from the west. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s northwest of the Illinois River. A weak slow moving upper level trough will be moving through the Midwest Tuesday evening promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms across especially northwestern portions of the central and southeast IL forecast area through the night.
A broad trough of low pressure off the coast will promote cooler than normal temperatures inland over the next few days. The trough may also help mix out the persistent marine layer for a little less drizzle during the morning periods and perhaps a little more sun during the afternoons along the coast. A mix of mid and upper level cirrus and cumulus clouds continue to stream across the skies toward the northeast associated with an approaching trough of low pressure. The other affect of the approaching trough is the mechanism of mixing the stubborn marine layer a bit. Beyond tomorrow main changes will be a subtle decrease in inland temperatures as the airmass cools from the trough. An upper level trough is in the process of swinging across the region.
310 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region today.
146 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure moving slowly southeast across the Great Lakes will provide generally fair weather across our area today and tonight, though there remains a small chance of showers and thunderstorms over southwestern portions of the area through this evening close to a lingering frontal boundary. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
342 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Surface cold front is making slow but steady progress eastward this afternoon, currently located from near International Falls to far northeast South Dakota. An upper level ridge will extend from the western portion of the Northern Plains well north into Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Ahead of this trough the tropical air mass remains in place with pwat values around 1. The low level jet will also increase out of the south tonight and gradually veer adding another focus for lift over any established cold pools. As the trough tracks eastward and low level jet veers chance will spread into eastern KS.
An upper low is currently moving inland over east Texas and this was the trigger for some of this rain we are seeing this afternoon.
This Evening Through Tuesday Night Surface cold front almost stationary across south central SD, still draped between PIR-9V9 and PHP-VTN. Upper low over srn CO- nrn NM is drawing moisture northward ahead of it into central Plains, with some thunderstorms developing over Cherry Co NE along the cold front that may clip south central SD late afternoon and early evening. Upper ridge builds over the northern Plains through midweek. With lee trof developing over MT Tuesday, south winds will warm temperatures in the western zones, but highs will be cooler over central SD where east-southeast winds will prevail.
340 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Short term period weather pattern dominated by large upper ridge extending from the Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley and Southeastern states weakening as a weak upper level low just off the southeast coast moves slowly westward. At the surface, weak high pressure builds into north GA through tomorrow. Early track ensemble guidance is better clustered around a solution keeping the system well south of the area and in fact aiding in bringing in some drier and hopefully cooler air by the end of the week. GFS is more aggressive in the amplitude of the trough and the scouring out of moisture but both it and the ECMWF show some considerably cooler nighttime conditions for North GA for the weekend.
314 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will build over the area tonight and Tuesday.
341 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Filling upper low continues to circulate across northern New Mexico which has put eastern Colorado under deep easterly upslope flow. With filling upper low still lingering of Colorado on Tuesday.
1116 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Weak but broad ridging continues across the region this morning. strong high pressure sits across Saskatchewan into ern MT/wrn ND behind a cold front which has pushed across ne to sw SD in the last few hours. This will bring cooler temps to nw SD into the BH area today with highs in the mid 80s. though 5 degrees or so cooler than yesterday. Upper ridging will strengthen across the central CONUS Tuesday.
The upper low across the central Rockies will continue to very slowly fill then lift across the plains through Tuesday. While freezing levels around 13300 could be conducive for hail, wet bulb zero levels are extremely high around 12650.
Overnight, the primary chance of showers/storms will be across western Oklahoma--near the Texas border---along a moist axis on the western periphery of the mid- level ridge. The highest chances appear to be across western Oklahoma/western north Texas, which will be on the periphery of the mid-level/500 mb ridge that may shift slightly westward. The westward shift of the mid-level ridge should slightly decrease the chance of showers/storms across central Oklahoma on Tuesday.
Deep layer lift is a given with minor impulses coming around an upper low over the Four Corners.
314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Subtropical moisture will continue to be brought northward across the panhandles between an upper level low to our northwest and a ridge of high pressure to our east through at mid week.
1132 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Water vapor imagery this morning is clearly showing the area of low pressure over north central New Mexico. This closed low is responsible for the showers and occasional lightning strikes over extreme southeastern portions of our CWA. A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest.
208 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Aviation Plenty of sunshine should be seen today as high pressure will be situated across the Great Lakes region. The high will slide off to the southeast of the area tonight allowing a cold front to approach from the north on Tuesday.
241 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the southern Ohio Valley. The Mid South remains positioned to the south of the ridge center with deep easterly flow in place.
Mid- to upper-level flow will shift from westerly to west-southwesterly and strengthen as a strengthening trough along/west of the Pacific Northwest coast interacts with a ridge over Montana and the Canadian Prairies. A few -SHRA and TSRA may form over the higher terrain after 21Z/Mon and then move east-northeastward before dissipating by around 03Z/Tue.
Upper level low was located just east of the 4 corners. A vorticity maximum rotating around this low was located over western Pueblo county and was producing some rain from the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region down towards the Hayden Pass burn scar. Trough aloft will weaken. Best forcing will migrate out towards the plains so expect best chance of precip will be over the lower elevations.
313 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes while a cold front ran from northern Minnesota into northwest Nebraska. At the same time patchy fog will begin to develop due to light winds and high moisture levels in the lower atmosphere. Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move through the area.
Short range models show the H5 vort maxima cycling around a weak upper low situated across the Four Corners Region while broad upper level ridging remains in control across the southeastern CONUS. Factoring in the high amounts of QPF with PW values in excess of 1. So look for lows back down into the mid to upper 60s(F) overnight with the lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a tropical air mass will continue Tuesday as the upper level ridge axis shifts westward into western Oklahoma and the upper low, located near the four corners region at 00z Monday, slowly moves east northeast across northern New Mexico.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon will continue this afternoon as upper low approaches and moisture increases. Deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS and GFS ensemble mean suggest that the upper low will meander just offshore during the period. especially over the ERN CWA/MSA near the upper low.
/issued 426 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ The upper low spinning over northeast New Mexico early this morning will continue to control our weather again today. This low will remain nearly stationary through the short term. The position of the low will allow mid level moisture to continue to be pumped into the region with persistent south-southwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure was centered over eastern Colorado. Aloft, an upper level low is centered over northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado. Over the next 3 days, expect chances for thunderstorms to persist as the upper level low slowly lifts northeast across the High Plains. For today, morning thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish as the low level jet weakens. On Tuesday, models remain persistent in forecasting more widespread precipitation and chances for heavier precipitation across northwest Kansas as the decaying upper low lifts northeast into the region.
High pressure will build over the forecast area today. Mostly sunny but cooler today with highs from the low to mid 70s in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 80s along the southern Tier of counties. At upper levels, a ridge builds over the Front Range in response to an upper level low that moves into the coast of British Columbia/Washington. In response, broad low pressure develops over the Rockies. The upper level low over the west coast continues to expand, and the downstream ridge expands eastward.
Upper low just off the se TX coast will gradually lose influence on our region through midweek, as the upper ridge builds back in across our nrn sections, and the upper low drifts swwd along the coast. Attm, it appears that a Heat Advisory will not be needed due to the isold/brief nature of the higher heat index values.
322 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Cold front late this afternoon extending from south of Pierre over to Sisseton pushing slowly southward.
Currently mostly clear skies over Central Alabama, as an upper level ridge is centered over Indiana and Kentucky, keeping a fairly calm weather pattern over the region. Today's forecast projects that a small vorticity pocket, supported by slight jet divergence, will carve a weakness in the ridge starting in Georgia and then drop into the eastern portion of Central Alabama this afternoon.
1248 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Current surface obs indicating a cold front extending from north central to west central SD very early this morning. This boundary will slide slowly southward through today, becoming situated just north of the Highway 14 corridor by late afternoon, bringing a small threat of thunderstorm development over that area after 21z. It will be another very warm and humid day with highs in the lower 80s east of Interstate 29 to near 90 through the James River Valley and south central SD - this in conjunction with afternoon dew points in the mid 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be once again be relatively mild , bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s.
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Updated aviation section for 18Z taf issuance Upper level high pressure will continue to be the main weather feature on the charts today. This upper level high, which is basically sitting right over us, will actually retrograde westward with time early this week. As the upper high begins retrograding westward on Tuesday, it weakens as well.
After the passage of the short wave, the main trough will linger near the West Coast for the remainder of the week. The trough will bring a slight cooling trend.
349 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region today.
Ridging aloft continues. Looks like the bulk of the low and mid level moisture will be confined to the south of our counties, thus minimal thunderstorm chances again.
The low level flow and moisture transport will certainly not be strong, but the trajectory sufficient to sustain gradually weakening storms into the night. Throughout the day time a cold front will be passing through Iowa from north to south.
An upper ridge will build into eastern Montana this week providing a hot and dry forecast. Believe weak shear should prevent any activity that does form from moving off onto the plains, so confined PoPs to the higher terrain.
612 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will be over the area through Tuesday.
326 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the north country on Tuesday.
Late morning temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. Aloft, the water vapor view indicated a weak upper trough heading WSW from KY/TN region. A few showers and storms were noted just east of the I-65 corridor in southern middle Tennessee near this trough. This trough was moving to the west, a part of the circulation around a cold core upper low east of the SC/GA border. For this afternoon, daytime heating should bring high temperatures up into the lower 90s most spots.
High pressure will be the main wx feature across the region today. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, temperatures will remain quite warm with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s Plateau.
649 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will build over the area tonight and Tuesday.
1234 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Cooler temperatures aloft today combined with strong daytime heating of moist airmass should give way to scattered diurnally driven convection across the region for this afternoon/evening. Heading into Tuesday upper level ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies with a short wave trough aloft dropping southeast across the upper Mississippi valley region. Once again strong daytime heating of moist airmass should give way to afternoon convection on Tuesday but we should witness a little more coverage with aid of weak upper level trough axis.
152 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region today.
314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated upper ridging in place across the confluence of the OH/MS River Valleys, with a large upper trof beginning to come ashore in the PACNW and TD9 continuing to churn over Wrn Cuba. Another area of low pressure remains in place just off the TX/LA coast. Most areas will remain dry, with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Models continue to advertise large scale pattern becoming well amplified over the next couple days with an upper ridge becoming established over the central conus by mid week. POPs in going forecast look reasonable for now as models persist in showing several impulses undercutting the developing upper ridge will help maintain potential for precip activity across the majority of the central plains.
There are some indications this low might weaken tonight into tomorrow but a narrow trof will remain from the Neb Panhandle down to NM. The high will remain well to the N. with a sharpening ridge developing over the Nrn Rockies. This ridge will drift E and into the Midwest/GtLakes by Sat. SW flow will develop here on Fri with a Wrn trof/Ern ridge developing by Sun. it remains highly uncertain what will happen to the trof just to the W of the fcst area. Temps will be cooler than normal thru Fri and then return to near normal this weekend. The SREF guidance indicate the high probability/ chance of tstms will be 06Z-12Z.
154 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday.
The shear is slightly stronger across far northern Missouri, colocated with the highest instability north of Interstate 70.
404 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will be over the area through Tuesday.
136 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday.
some shower/thunderstorm activity has developed in eastern ND close to the cold front. an upper wave is currently passing to the north of the area and a cold front is pushing southeast across eastern ND at this time. High pressure will then settle into the area overnight with clearing skies and lows in the 50s. high pressure will dominate with highs mostly in the 70s and sunny skies.
252 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region.
An upper level trough will move into the region, ushering in cooler temperatures and showery conditions for late in the week, into the holiday weekend.
The area remains positioned along the southern periphery of an upper level ridge. An broad upper level ridge will prevail over the lower and middle MS River valley through Tuesday. Thereafter, the ridge will retrograde to the intermountain west and high plains, as upper level energy drops southeast out of central Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio River valley.
to the southwest a large hot high pressure ridge has developed over Utah/Nevada/Idaho with roots in the Desert Southwest.
PWATS on the KBMX 12z sounding this morning support the higher moisture amounts, measuring 1.
A weak mid and upper level low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico/upper Texas coast will continue to be the main weather feature of interest through the short term portion of the forecast. Above normal moisture will remain in place through Tuesday as easterly flow in the lower and mid-levels continues.
300 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Upper level low continues to slowly unwind across SRN Colorado this afternoon. Surface heating has been more limited today west of the escarpment and the lower reflectivities show this. The highest 24 hour totals have been across Yoakum county where the predominant soil type is sand. At the mid to upper levels, the drying trend will occur a bit faster as an upper ridge develops over the weekend.
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today before moving offshore.
/issued 241 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the southern Ohio Valley. The Mid South remains positioned to the south of the ridge center with deep easterly flow in place.
Weak upper level low will approach the Middle Texas coast later tonight into Tuesday.
An upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken, and a trough will begin to drop southeast over the Great Lakes during the period.
650 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the north country on Tuesday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then persist into Tuesday as an upper level ridge of high pressure breaks down over the region. We will also see a cold front begin to approach the Ozarks in the afternoon.
336 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 cold front through all but far southeastern fcst area at 20z. Temps a few degrees cooler than today but mainly because starting out a bit cooler in the morning.
249 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 19z/2pm water vapor imagery shows upper high centered over southwest Indiana. with fetch of deep moisture flowing around the high from the Gulf of Mexico N/NW into Missouri/Iowa and western Illinois. Rain chances will become more focused during the day Tuesday as a cold front currently over the Northern Plains approaches from the west. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s northwest of the Illinois River. A weak slow moving upper level trough will be moving through the Midwest Tuesday evening promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms across especially northwestern portions of the central and southeast IL forecast area through the night.
An upper trough will track east out of the central and southern Rockies today and tonight. the cold front and increasing chances for convection is the main reasons for max temps being lowered a category or so today.