Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
347 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 South-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the day ahead of a cold front progressing southeastward across the Central Plains towards the Midwest. The cold front is progged to traverse the forecast area tonight; however, the passage of the front will be dry in the absence of sufficient moisture with PW ahead of front remaining below 0. Pfahler Global model guidance is in good agreement that an upper-level ridge will become centered over the Central U.
458 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Dry conditions will prevail today with warmer weather as return flow increases on the back side of a high pressure area. A cold front will move through Sunday, bringing windy and colder weather along a period of rain mixing with or changing to snow before ending Sunday evening, primarily north of U.
A cold front associated with a 986 mb surface cyclone in south-central Canada will pass through southwest Kansas later this morning. Given how far Kansas is from the upper level trough, it will take several hours for the cold air to spill into our area, and afternoon highs are only expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday with upper 60s/lower 70s expected. Lows Saturday night will drop below freezing for most of our area, with only the far southeast zones avoiding sub-freezing temperatures.
This feature will develop the trough into cold front, which will advance through the forecast area tonight, resulting in windy and warm weather today, then much cooler, windy conditions overnight into Sunday. Today will be windy and much warmer as a strong southwest flow mixes down ahead of tonight's cold front. This evening, model consensus has the cold front reaching a line roughly northwest of a line from Dyersville to Vinton around 7 pm. The cold front is expected to advance through the entire forecast area by midnight.
/Issued 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020/ /Today through Sunday/ A broad, flat upper level high pressure ridge over the Southern Plains will get pushed southward today as a vigorous full latitude trough exits the Rockies and moves into the Northern and Central Plains. The trough will reach the Midwest Sunday, leaving a cooler northwesterly flow regime over North Texas. As the aforementioned upper trough slides through the Plains tonight, a cold front will dive southward into North Texas after midnight, sweeping through the entire forecast area by mid- morning.
Upper level zonal flow has overspread the region as an upper level trough exits the eastern CONUS. An upper level ridge begins to move into the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday as another upper level trough moves in over the northwestern CONUS. Clear skies, dry conditions and light winds support strong radiational cooling processes with overnight lows dipping down into the low to 40s interior. Under sunny skies Saturday, highs rebound into the lower 70s, with upper 60s across southeast MS and southwest AL.
Otherwise, a quiet weather pattern is in store for the next few days with ridging building back into the area. Lofting dust has over-performed today with visibility degradations in the lower Basin including Hermiston and Tri Cities. Temps tonight to range from just under 20 in our coldest spots (elevated valleys, mtns) to just above freezing in warmer portions of Basin.
Notably stronger winds upstream of 130-150kts compared to ~100kts downstream will promote digging of the trough into the Ohio River Valley with a jet streak strengthening to ~100kts over Tennessee into the night.
VFR conditions continue for the 06z TAF period as high pressure continues to settle into the area. High pressure across Texas will lead to continued cool and dry conditions under mostly clear skies. With the dry conditions in the mid-levels and a slight increase in low level moisture, there is some potential for patchy fog late Saturday night, but confidence is low as the low level moisture may not be sufficient enough.
451 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Building high pressure will continue to erode cloud cover this morning, though unseasonably cool temperatures will continue.
Forecast is on track as surface ridging builds across the area with a dry, cool airmass. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 50 64 35 54 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 47 60 32 51 / 0 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 47 61 32 52 / 0 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 42 58 28 48 / 0 10 10 0 0 NC.
Have also added a mention of sprinkles/flurries during the afternoon and evening, as the weak lift looks sufficient to generate very light precipitation as the trough passes. Northwest winds stay brisk into Sunday, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 20s overnight. The week ahead looks very benign as mid/upper ridging gradually builds across the central CONUS.
119 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure crosses today.
Looking at the frost threat over the next few hours, it still looks patchy in the sheltered, typically cooler spots. Halloween is looking beautiful with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a cold front that will that will drop down from the central Plains.
/NEW/ /Today through Sunday/ A broad, flat upper level high pressure ridge over the Southern Plains will get pushed southward today as a vigorous full latitude trough exits the Rockies and moves into the Northern and Central Plains. The trough will reach the Midwest Sunday, leaving a cooler northwesterly flow regime over North Texas. As the aforementioned upper trough slides through the Plains tonight, a cold front will dive southward into North Texas after midnight, sweeping through the entire forecast area by mid- morning. /Issued 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ /Saturday night and beyond/ While a dry cold front will move across North and Central TX late Saturday night into Sunday morning, pretty nice weather is expected Saturday (Halloween) evening. Breezy north winds and cooler temperatures are in the forecast for Sunday (around 5 to 8 degrees cooler compared to Saturday).
At 19Z this afternoon a mid level trough was moving across the Pacific Northwest with downstream ridging across the northern Plains and nearly zonal flow across the central Plains. This will keep the lower boundary layer mixed across central Kansas with south to southwest winds and an increase in winds after midnight in the east. The pacific northwest mid level trough is forecast to move east out into the Plains on Saturday along with an associated frontal boundary. Lows Saturday night in the low to mid 30s are expected. Dry weather continues through the work week with the jet retreating northward into southern Canada and ridging across the central U. Gusty SSW winds to 30 kts will occur at airports ahead of a cold front that is forecast to move through KMHK around 21Z and KTOP/KFOE around 23Z.
417 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure crosses today.
/issued 905 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ A chilly night is in store across the entire Four State Region with overnight lows forecast in the middle 30s north to the lower 40s south. High pressure ridging at the surface is directly overhead attm which has resulted in calm winds across most locations.
1141 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 High Pressure over the Midwest will give way to a cold front Saturday night bringing much colder and breezy conditions to Illinois for Sunday. High pressure ridge is shifting east tonight, resulting in light easterly winds and continued clear skies. Current forecast looks good, but with dewpoints in northwest parts of the CWA in the mid to upper 20s, am going to lower the overnight lows in this area closer to freezing, like other parts of the CWA around I-74. Mostly clear skies should persist through Saturday as High pressure centered over the area slowly moves East. The cold front associated with the wave will move across the area Saturday Night.
With a dry mid layer, will have to monitor the lower levels to see if easterly winds pull in enough moisture to support the development of patchy fog later tonight. Sunday will be slightly warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will increase during the day Sunday as a dry cold front pushes into the area later that afternoon.
The primary concerns during the short term will be frost potential tonight and freezing temperatures Sunday night. Temperatures are still around 10 to 15 degrees below normal though, only topping out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. This will lead to a cold front moving through our area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures return on Sunday along with a brisk northwest wind sustained around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts. The strong signal for freezing temperatures remains in place Sunday night. Due to the high confidence and in coordination with neighboring offices we have went ahead and hoisted a Freeze Watch for the entire area.
That trough will send an associated dry cold front through the region Sunday morning. Slightly cooler across northern areas on Sunday, with highs forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas.
High pressure ridge will weaken tonight and a reinforcing surge of cooler air is forecasted for Sunday, but it should not affect maximum temperatures that afternoon.
128 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 After a windy day today, especially across SE Montana, a quiet and warmer weather pattern builds in for Sunday through the rest of the week. Good mixing behind last evenings cold front will allow gusty winds (40 to 55mph) to work down to the surface by late morning from Rosebud county east into the western Dakotas. Northwest flow aloft continues on Sunday but heights will be on the rise for sunny and warmer conditions.
Winds will gradually shift around to the SW this morning and the WNW by this afternoon as lee troughing develops across the region. A cold front will enter the northern terminals by the end of this forecast period. /issued 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft under an upper ridge centered over Mexico. Thicknesses increase even more under the ridge Saturday, adding 5-10 degrees to this afternoon's. Unfortunately, a cold front will backdoor into the area Saturday night, taking temps Sunday afternoon back below normal.
Halloween: A cold front is expected to slide through the area during the day on Saturday. Winds out of the north will remain through the day as an upper level trough slides northeast of our area.
Tonight Through Sunday Night High pressure and light winds will allow for decent radiational cooling after dark, and another cold night. High pressure will begin to exit to the east on Saturday. Wall to wall sunshine is expected, and it will be a little warmer as winds become more southerly. A new cold front will plow through Arkansas from the Plains Saturday night/early Sunday.
456 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Surface ridging extended from northeast to southwest over the region early this morning, with benign zonal flow aloft. The high will depart to the east today, and a large mid/upper level trough will drop southeast over the eastern CONUS this weekend. It will support a potent cold front which will move through on Sunday. The models are in good agreement on a high amplitude trough setup in the eastern US and ridging across the western US. At the surface, an area of high pressure will will setup across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and nose east toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This trough advects in 850mb temperatures in the -7 to -8 C range and this is around -2 standard deviations below normal.
High pressure will continue to settle across Texas, leading to quiet weather across the region. /issued 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): One more slightly cooler than average night will occur tonight before temperatures rise to seasonal averages for Saturday and Saturday night.
(Today and tonight) Another mild day expected, perhaps a few degrees warmer than yesterday despite an increase in cirrus. Gusty southwest winds will be be seen ahead of a weak cold front, which will move into northwest Oklahoma by mid-afternoon and progress southeast over the rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas through the evening hours.
222 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure will build in through early Sunday.
242 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 We made it to Halloween and it is looking like great day to get out and enjoy the weather! Weak ridging over the area will break down today as an upper trough moves across the Northern Plains. This trough will bring a cold front through tonight, but we are looking at much warmer temperatures ahead of it. Thick high clouds will keep it from getting any warmer. The cold front will move through the area after sunset bringing increasing northerly winds.
Have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning in view of this. A little cooler Saturday behind the front then back to mild conditions Sunday.
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020 Warmer temperatures can be expected on Saturday with strengthening south-southwesterly winds after passage of a weak warm front. A deepening upper level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region Saturday night and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area. Any precipitation will be well north-northeast of the forecast area where better upper level forcing will exist ahead of the upper level trough.
Today Through Sunday Night High pressure will depart to the east today, with winds becoming more southerly.
Clear skies and some calm winds at times have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 40s in some locations. The aforementioned ridge will continue to broaden over the Southeastern CONUS, leading to a zonal flow regime aloft on Saturday. A stout cold front will stem from an upper trough axis that will pivot across the Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will begin to move through the area by Sunday afternoon. Sunday night will likely feature the coldest air we have had since mid April, with lows near or below freezing.
Winds have been a bit higher ahead of approaching cold front, and sporadic gusts just within advisory criteria have been reported in the southern RRV. As pre-frontal trough arrives there should be lull as winds shift ending the strongest southerly winds. Main cold front isn't far behind and is approaching our far west. Due to cooler post frontal air mass highs should be below average in the 30s to near 40.
257 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 An upper level trough axis currently extending from Wyoming into the Texas Panhandle will pivot and shift east as the day progresses. Winds are mostly light and variable across the FA right now but will become breezy out of the west-southwest by later this afternoon in response to the trough axis' eastward progression. A relatively weak and dry cold front will push south through our region later this evening. The week will start off a bit cooler than today or yesterday behind tonight's cold front.
608 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 (Today and tonight) Another mild day expected, perhaps a few degrees warmer than yesterday despite an increase in cirrus. Gusty southwest winds will be be seen ahead of a weak cold front, which will move into northwest Oklahoma by mid-afternoon and progress southeast over the rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas through the evening hours.
703 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Early morning analysis showed a pretty potent low pressure system over southern Canada with an associated cold front stretching southwest across North Dakota and into northwestern South Dakota. Otherwise, said strong southerly flow will lead to warmer air working into the area and highs topping out mainly in the 50s, though a few spots could make a run at 60 degrees. Southerly to westerly surface flow will usher in warmer air, meaning that "cold snap" on Sunday will be pretty short lived.
/Today through Sunday/ Dry conditions to prevail across the region through the short term period as upper-level ridging across the Gulf of Mexico maintains zonal to weak northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will maintain light winds this morning, becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will slip through the region tonight allowing for a reinforcement of cool and dry high pressure to become re-established across the region on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday to range from the lower 60s across southeast Oklahoma to the upper 60s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
Carrothers After a windy day across SE Montana today, a quiet and warmer weather pattern builds in for Sunday through the rest of the week. Good mixing behind last evenings cold front will allow gusty winds (40 to 55mph) to work down to the surface by late morning from Rosebud county east into the western Dakotas. Northwest flow aloft continues on Sunday but heights will be on the rise for sunny and warmer conditions.
With broad high pressure over the central and eastern US winds to remain light. High pressure ridge will weaken tonight and a reinforcing surge of cooler air is forecasted for Sunday, but it should not affect maximum temperatures that afternoon.
Winds tonight will shift to the northwest at 4 to 8 mph behind a cold front. Today Through Sunday Night High pressure will depart to the east today, with winds becoming more southerly.
High pressure will maintain dry weather with seasonably cool temperatures and light wind over the ArkLaMiss region as we begin the weekend. Guidance came in cooler for Sunday night, with values across the north down into the lower 30's.
After the windy conditions yesterday, due to a cold front passage, a mix of sun and clouds is expected today as high pressure builds back into the Northern Rockies. Global forecast models agree on high pressure strengthening through early this week, leading to a warming trend.
and Sunday Gusty south winds ahead of a fast moving cold front will bring milder air into the area this afternoon. The cold front will move across the region late tonight, accompanied by snow showers in the far north and rain showers elsewhere. The strong west winds blowing across the bay will produce relatively big waves and could lead to some shoreline flooding due to the high water levels.
Have trended high temperatures towards the higher end of guidance with little change in the overall environment.
A cold front extended from central ND through north-central WY and southern ID. Periodic strong westerly winds will persist through the early morning hours when the cold front moves southeast across the CWA. It will be 10-20 degrees cooler today with 700mb temperatures between -2 and -6C yielding highs in the 40s to lower 50s. The early part of the week will be dominated by a building upper ridge of high pressure.
733 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure provides dry weather and continued cool temperatures.
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Dry conditions will prevail today with warmer weather as return flow increases on the back side of a high pressure area. A cold front will move through Sunday, bringing windy and colder weather along a period of rain mixing with or changing to snow before ending Sunday evening, primarily north of U.
A dry cold front is forecast to move through the region Sunday morning. That trough will send an associated dry cold front through the region Sunday morning. Slightly cooler across northern areas on Sunday, with highs forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track Surface ridging extended from northeast to southwest over the region early this morning, with benign zonal flow aloft. The high will depart to the east today, and a large mid/upper level trough will drop southeast over the eastern CONUS this weekend. It will support a potent cold front which will move through on Sunday. The models are in good agreement on a high amplitude trough setup in the eastern US and ridging across the western US. At the surface, an area of high pressure will will setup across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and nose east toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This trough advects in 850mb temperatures in the -7 to -8 C range and this is around -2 standard deviations below normal.
A cold front will move across the region overnight bringing light northwest winds under 5 knots after 01/07Z. /Today through Sunday/ Dry conditions to prevail across the region through the short term period as upper-level ridging across the Gulf of Mexico maintains zonal to weak northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will maintain light winds this morning, becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will slip through the region tonight allowing for a reinforcement of cool and dry high pressure to become re-established across the region on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday to range from the lower 60s across southeast Oklahoma to the upper 60s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
Breezes will increase over the central highlands to east central plains through mid day, but will then shift northeasterly as a cold front arrives late in the day. Warmer and drier weather continues today for most areas, with a modest backdoor cold front moving through the eastern plains late today through tonight.
642 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 South-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the day ahead of a cold front progressing southeastward across the Central Plains towards the Midwest. The cold front is progged to traverse the forecast area tonight; however, the passage of the front will be dry in the absence of sufficient moisture with PW ahead of front remaining below 0. Pfahler Global model guidance is in good agreement that an upper-level ridge will become centered over the Central U.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 51 65 34 55 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 48 60 31 51 / 0 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 48 60 31 52 / 0 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 43 58 27 49 / 0 20 20 0 0 NC.
Temperatures will cool by the end of the week as a cooler airmass moves in.
The only cool day when highs will be below normal will be Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 50s behind a cold front.
Even Warmer. One more warm day is likely today, before another cold front late tonight brings cooler temperatures.
538 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Cold front crossing the area is readily apparent on radar imagery tonight. A few midlevel-based showers have developed from sern MT/nern WY thru nwrn SD/swrn ND near the midlevel trof axis, but with otherwise fairly dry profiles, not expecting more than a few sprinkles (if that) out of this activity. Broad 850 mb jet core of 40-50 kt and corresponding 700 mb jet of 50-70 kt overspread nwrn SD during the morning hours as 850/700 mb CAA continues behind the deep cold front. Because 700 mb jet lingers across ern portions of our area (Ziebach/Haakon) thru the aftn and 850 mb winds/low-level thermodynamic characteristics are not noticeably different there compared to farther west, have opted to expand the High Wind Warning to include those zones.
604 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 High pressure crosses today.
Forecast Summary: Strong cold front marching through the Plains today will cool things down for the second half of the weekend. Today through Sunday: Cold front tied to potent mid level system riding through the southern Canadian Plains was pushing into the western Dakotas just after midnight.
Tonight's cold front should still cross the Red River about midnight, and sweep southward across the forecast area in the morning hours. Bradshaw Previous Discussion: /Today through Sunday/ A broad, flat upper level high pressure ridge over the Southern Plains will get pushed southward today as a vigorous full latitude trough exits the Rockies and moves into the Northern and Central Plains. The trough will reach the Midwest Sunday, leaving a cooler northwesterly flow regime over North Texas. As the aforementioned upper trough slides through the Plains tonight, a cold front will dive southward into North Texas after midnight, sweeping through the entire forecast area by mid- morning.