Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
231 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Latest water vapor and upper air analysis show dry air over Wyoming with an upper level ridge in place. A weak cold front was moving over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level short wave trough. Tonight the weak cold front will continue moving eastward with the short wave trough. Thursday the weak cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. As the upper level short wave trough moves through that night, am not expecting any rainfall due to large dew point depressions in place. The stronger part of the short wave trough will be south of the forecast area. Highs will be slightly cooler than today; lows may actually be a few degrees warmer than tonight due to the cloud cover behind the front.
Dry and cooler conditions continue through the short term. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 40s, with some colder temperatures in typical cold spots. Highs Thursday will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today in the low to mid 70s.
A deep, mid-latitude cyclone is moving very slowly to the east across the OH Valley with a broad upper-level ridge upstream over the Rockies. 50" which is toward the low end of climatology for this date. The current trough moves into the Great Lakes by Thursday night, but a reinforcing wave will dive southeast across the Upper Midwest heading into the weekend, maintaining the eastern trough.
237 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern today with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. The ridge of high pressure will move east of the Continental Divide by tonight as a Pacific storm system moves into the Great Basin. The elongated Pacific trough will move across the forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Dry high pressure builds into the region in the wake of a cold front which moved through earlier today. Dry conditions follow through Wednesday along with cooler temperatures flowing into the area. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to around 60 at the immediate coast.
With warmer winds at the surface, expect afternoon highs to be warmer pushing into the upper 70s to around the 80 degree mark.
The strong cold front that's ushering in much cooler temperatures and drier air on this first official day of fall is quickly moving southeastward.
Issued by National Weather Service North Platte NE 1100 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Water vapor shows large ridge over the western/central CONUS with trof just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, broad trof stretches from the Rocky Mountain Front through the Northern Plains. Warm advection will continue today with thermal ridge axis pushing into northeast WY. Very warm/dry conditions expected with highs general in the low to mid 80s, 70s in the Black Hills. Aforementioned upper trof quickly moves through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains on Thursday, pushing a cold front through the region.
1043 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Overall forecast is on track, with much drier air, plenty of sun and afternoon temperatures expected to climb to near 80 in the wake of the cold front that pushed through the area last night.
/CME/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a cold front just southeast of our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although cooler and drier air was filtering into our CWA in the wake of the cold front, upper level troughing over our CWA associated with the closed low was helping produce a broken band some light showers nearly along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Under clear skies and a near calm wind, strong radiational cooling of our cool dry airmass will lead to temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Our normal morning lows run in the lower 60s.
1116 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A cold front on Wednesday is expected to bring increasing clouds and breezy winds across portions of central and eastern Washington.
1148 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period with high pressure in place.
Looking aloft, the trough extends into the low and mid levels and also is slowly dragging southeast towards the area. As we go into the end of the week, the mid level trough will slowly erode and drift eastward, while the low level trough will lift northward as low level ridging begins to re- establish itself.
252 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 The near term forecast reasoning discussed earlier today remains on track, as moderately strong northwest flow in the low-levels continues to advect a cooler/drier airmass southeastward into the TN Valley this afternoon. Temperatures in wind-protected valleys and in close proximity to larger bodies of water will remain in the lower 50s, with an attendant threat for patchy fog development as winds diminish in the 7-13Z timeframe.
A cold front is moving into the region this afternoon and will move through tonight.
Nonetheless, rain will remain widespread across central Indiana into this evening due to a trailing upper low now generating additional rainfall over the southwest portions of central Indiana. The upper ridging will be slow to build into the forecast area Thursday evening, but time cross sections are showing a relatively dry column at that point. Temperatures on Wednesday night will not be much warmer with forecasted lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.
The weak mixing overnight will keep tonights lows much warmer than last night (no chances for frost), however still in the upper 40s.
134 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Weak high pressure is over Wyoming today with some high clouds moving in from the west-northwest. A short wave trough will quickly approach the forecast area from central Idaho this evening and overnight, increasing clouds from the northwest. Models are slowing the SE progression of the trough Thursday such that with the trough, weak instability will remain over the area during the late morning and afternoon. The trough will increase the surface pressure Thursday morning bringing good rises east of the divide and increasing the NNW wind.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes southward to Alabama. Weak upper ridging is over the Rocky Mountains, and a weak trough is over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures tonight are expected to be similar or slightly warmer than last night. The upper trough to the east of the region becomes a cutoff low centered over Michigan on Thursday with the trough over the Pacific Northwest moving over Utah.
Otherwise, the rest of the night looks pretty quiet, with isolated showers possible (mainly after 3 AM) north of Orlando along an early season weak cold front moving into central FL overnight. A weak cold front will then push into central FL overnight expected to be near MCO-TIX by sunrise (11-12Z), which may bring some lower ceilings late tonight and into Thursday morning.
528 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Latest water vapor and upper air analysis show dry air over Wyoming with an upper level ridge in place. A weak cold front was moving over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level short wave trough. Tonight the weak cold front will continue moving eastward with the short wave trough. Thursday the weak cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. As the upper level short wave trough moves through that night, am not expecting any rainfall due to large dew point depressions in place. The stronger part of the short wave trough will be south of the forecast area. Highs will be slightly cooler than today; lows may actually be a few degrees warmer than tonight due to the cloud cover behind the front.
With clear skies and dry air in place, temperatures will warm up into the mid to upper 80's with RH values dropping into the low teens mainly west of Highway 83. Later in the day Thursday, a broad low pressure system move southwest through the area with a cold front trailing behind during the nighttime hours. This will shift the winds to be out of the north during the overnight hours and bring slightly cooler temperatures behind the front.
However, marine influences will keep conditions cooler near the coast compared to warmer interior locations. Many coastal areas are as much as 15 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago while some interior and higher elevation locations have noticed little change. The cooling trend will be short-lived however as the trough drops to the southeast and into the Intermountain West through late week. This will result in brief offshore flow over the higher elevations of the Bay Area from tonight into Thursday morning. Additionally, high pressure will build in from the eastern Pacific through late week helping to aid in another warming trend.
552 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Weak high pressure is over Wyoming today with some high clouds moving in from the west-northwest. A short wave trough will quickly approach the forecast area from central Idaho this evening and overnight, increasing clouds from the northwest. Models are slowing the SE progression of the trough Thursday such that with the trough, weak instability will remain over the area during the late morning and afternoon. The trough will increase the surface pressure Thursday morning bringing good rises east of the divide and increasing the NNW wind.
High pressure ridge will continue in control of the weather locally through tonight. A cold front will sweep through the area on Thursday, but no precipitation is expected.
817 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Happy first day of Fall! Today definitely felt like Fall with the lower humidity and cooler temps. Current obs and Nighttime Microphysics RGB show mostly clear skies in place, however a few batches of clouds will slide in from the back side of the exiting trough, mainly affecting Southern Middle TN and NE AL tonight.
593 dam high pressure is building over southwestern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona at this time, leading to dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be up to 12 degrees warmer than last night's. This extra energy will develop into a trough. From here, models struggle to handle whether this trough closes off into a low.
A mixture of VFR and MVFR through this taf cycle as cold advection prevails behind a departing cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 70 49 73 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 69 47 73 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 69 46 73 49 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 66 43 71 46 / 30 0 0 0 0.
VFR and are to prevail through the period as high pressure builds in.
Gusty northerly winds have weakened some this evening as high pressure behind the front begins to dominate the short term forecast. The pattern will be one of the more predominant ridge axis to our west over the Rockies and NW type flow over the Lower MS River Valley.
Clouds will start to move out of Deep South Texas tonight as a high pressure system moves into the area. /issued 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Breezy northerly winds and mostly cloudy skies continue across the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of this morningâs cold front. Low temps will range from the middle to upper 60s in the lower Rio Grande Valley to the upper 50s in the northern ranchlands both tonight and Thursday night. The trend of cooler temperatures continues for Thursday as north to northeast winds pick up slightly while high pressure builds into the area.
temperatures while the remainder of the Panhandles will be in the low to mid 50s. Similar pattern in store for tomorrow with H500 ridge over the Panhandles with large scale subsidence in the column. Southwest sfc winds will advect slightly warmer air into the Panhandles compared to today.
702 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 (This evening through Thursday) The 18Z surface observations place the ridge axis near/along a line from Childress to Clinton, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70's. As this high pressure system shifts east overnight, light winds veer predominantly to the S/SE by Thursday morning. The warming trend begins tomorrow as the upper ridge enters the area and southerly surface winds increase, especially over northwest Oklahoma.
814 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Much cooler weather and diminishing showers can be expected in the wake of this evenings cold front. In the wake of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will likely stay several degrees below normal. Long range ensembles indicate that high pressure early this weekend will be followed by a cold frontal passage later in the weekend which will result in precip chance.
533 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern today with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. The ridge of high pressure will move east of the Continental Divide by tonight as a Pacific storm system moves into the Great Basin. The elongated Pacific trough will move across the forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Latest water vapor and upper air analysis show dry air over Wyoming with an upper level ridge in place. A weak cold front was moving over the Pacific Northwest with an upper level short wave trough. Tonight the weak cold front will continue moving eastward with the short wave trough. Thursday the weak cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. As the upper level short wave trough moves through that night, am not expecting any rainfall due to large dew point depressions in place. The stronger part of the short wave trough will be south of the forecast area. Highs will be slightly cooler than today; lows may actually be a few degrees warmer than tonight due to the cloud cover behind the front.
Forecast package remains on track this evening with only minor adjustments to the temperatures and winds in the wake of the cold front. Dry high pressure builds into the region in the wake of a cold front which moved through earlier today. Dry conditions follow through Wednesday along with cooler temperatures flowing into the area. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to around 60 at the immediate coast.
The near term forecast reasoning discussed earlier today remains on track, as moderately strong northwest flow in the low-levels continues to advect a cooler/drier airmass southeastward into the TN Valley this afternoon. Temperatures in wind-protected valleys and in close proximity to larger bodies of water will remain in the lower 50s, with an attendant threat for patchy fog development as winds diminish in the 7-13Z timeframe.
The usual surface through lower level ridge is split across our area due to a rather high amplitude mid latitude trough stretching down the eastern United States with lower level troughing reaching into Florida. The split ridge and trough off to the north resulted in a col forming across our area and a variety of confluent zones exacerbating already active convection along old outflow boundaries and sea breeze activity over South Florida. The main evolution will be that the mid latitude troughing will push a bit further southwards.
A few showers and thunderstorms developed in our CWA this evening as a Pacific upper trough came in. A cold front moving through the area this evening with isolated showers and thunderstorms from KMYL to KMUO moving east. Surface winds: NW 5-15kt, with brief gusts up to 30kts along the cold front.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region the next few days resulting in dry and warmer than normal conditions.
An upper-level trough is slowly moving out of the Quad State to the northeast late this afternoon and evening. A large temperature gradient exists with afternoon temperatures near 60 in the Tri-State to the lower 70s near and west of the Mississippi River. Troughing, with northwesterly flow aloft, continues tomorrow as temperatures stay well below average, though a slow northward retreat begins.
First cold front of the season is currently just south of Tallahassee per latest visible satellite and TLH winds shifting out of the northwest. Overnight, an approaching cold front will result in lowering of clouds across the I-4 corridor.
Seasonable temperatures arrived with the passing of an upper trough. No precipitation is expected through the weekend while the ridge flattens and temperatures moderate back down. An upper trough passed by today and allowed the high temperatures to drop significantly along the coast, upwards of 20 degrees from what was observed yesterday. The North Pacific High will quickly begin nosing in overnight behind the trough.
224 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A strong upper level low pressure system was located over OH valley with northwest flow on the back side of the low across the forecast area. The upper low will lift into eastern Michigan today and we'll continue in northwest flow aloft but should see upper height rises across the area. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with the dry air mass still in place and temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Some gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph will be possible on Friday in advance of the next cold front and upper level system. We should see temperatures boost up slightly higher into the low to mid 80s.
High pressure over southeastern New Mexico and West Texas will slowly move east across the area keeping skies mostly clear and allowing for a beautiful day. Tomorrow the ridge axis will be to our east as a large area of low pressure develops over the southwestern U. A disturbance moving north out of Mexico around the periphery of this low will increase instability enough in our far western counties, especially the higher terrain, that we may see a few isolated showers and storms develop with the help of afternoon heating.
High pressure at the surface and a mid-level ridge axis just to our west have combined to push drier air overhead and will provide lots of sunshine today with highs from the middle to upper 80s in the eastern areas to lower 90s out west.
1103 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Weak high pressure is over Wyoming today with some high clouds moving in from the west-northwest. A short wave trough will quickly approach the forecast area from central Idaho this evening and overnight, increasing clouds from the northwest. Models are slowing the SE progression of the trough Thursday such that with the trough, weak instability will remain over the area during the late morning and afternoon.
High pressure was located over SE TX this morning and this feature will drift east through Friday Night. A light and variable wind will become more easterly today and eventually SE as the high drifts east. 850 mb temperatures today are progged to remain between 11 C - 13 C which translate to surface temps in the lower/middle 80's. The light east wind tonight will help moisten the boundary layer a bit and surface dew points look a little warmer so am expected MinT values to be a bit warmer than this morning's values. MinT values will fall into the upper 50's most areas with a few locally cooler spots (KCXO) and areas inside the loop warmer.
as ridging returns aloft keeping us high and dry through the remainder of the forecast period.
318 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 High pressure in place across the region lead to a cool night for most of the area as temperatures in the mid to low 40s were found across the area. Another repeat for today is expected with slightly warmer temps as the cooler H85 and H92 temps have moved just off to the east this am. Expect todays and tonights temps to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and this AM.
350 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Today will be very similar to yesterday, with afternoon highs in the low 70s west of I-35 and upper 60s east of I-35. Clouds will move in overnight Thursday as a trough enters the region. The rain and northwesterly flow, resulting in CAA, will cap our afternoon high temperatures on Friday in the lower 60s.
324 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Today and tonight: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures. Broad upper level troughing will remain over the region through the period. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the lower 50s at most locations but our normally colder locations in the northeast may dip into the upper 40s.
Clouds across most of the area will linger underneath a closed mid/upper low that will slowly track NE today.
(Today and tonight) Slightly warmer and drier conditions expected today as high pressure continues to build into the region.
A 593 dam area of high pressure is building over southwestern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona at this time, leading to dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be up to 12 degrees warmer than last night's. This extra energy will develop into a trough. From here, models struggle to handle whether this trough closes off into a low. Meanwhile, the upper high overhead starts to get pushed off to the east by late Thursday/early Friday.
101 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Much cooler weather and diminishing showers can be expected in the wake today in the wake of the cold front. A slow moving low pressure system will continue to advance rain showers north and east of Pittsburgh for the next few hours before deep dry air prevails. By first light, subsidence and dry advection will have put an end to rain chances near the ridges. Long range ensembles indicate that high pressure early this weekend will be followed by a cold frontal passage later in the weekend which will result in precip chance. With strong cold air advection behind the exiting cold front, persistent high IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected through much of the day.
418 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A low pressure system will slowly drift north through the Great Lakes today and into southern Canada tonight. As the low pressure system exists the region, showers will end and winds will diminish. High pressure will offer clearing skies overnight and abundant sunshine Friday.
204 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Fall has arrived both astronomically and meteorologically across Middle Tennessee with latest surface obs showing temperatures down into the low 50s areawide.
The forecast area will initially be within an upper trough position, then transition to being near a sharp ridge for the latter half of the period. The area was a little too far from the ridge axis, resulting in light winds continuing all night. As a result, temperatures were generally still in the low to middle 40s at forecast issuance time. A deep, mature cyclone will lift northwest into eastern Lower Michigan today, then shift off to the northeast tonight. The precipitation shield from the cyclone is expected to graze the eastern part of the forecast area, but shouldn't make much progress farther west.
High pressure will continue to build across the Great Basin, bringing warming temperatures and quiet weather into the upcoming weekend. For today, an upper low will be east of the area across northern Utah, while an upper ridge sites across the western United States. By tomorrow, look for the upper level ridge to continue building into the forecast area.
Quiet weather returns on Friday but another cold front will bring showers Friday night. Upper low over the Toledo area continues to slowly drift northward sending associated trowal/deformation axis into south-central and SW MI. Sunny skies and moderating temps expected for Friday with WAA ramping up ahead of next trough/cold front. Still some minor timing discrepancies but next cold front crosses Fri night/early Sat.
1130 PM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern today with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. The ridge of high pressure will move east of the Continental Divide by tonight as a Pacific storm system moves into the Great Basin. The elongated Pacific trough will move across the forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening.
A cold front will continue to push east of the forecast area today with dry air filtering into the Southeast. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s.
321 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Early morning IR/water vapor satellite imagery and regional surface observations are showing a weakening cold front pushing southeast into northern Florida.