Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S AT NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 72 DEGREES.
317 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS AND WIND WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FRI LOOKS EVEN WARMER THAN THU AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA THAN INTO OUR MN FA. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP ALL PCPN ACROSS WESTERN ND NEAR THE LOW FRI EVENING WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO OUR WESTERN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
322 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 The occurrence of periods of showers and thunderstorms through tonight remains the primary near term focus as a seasonally strong mid level trough and cold front make passage. Waves of energy rotating through the base of the trough south of this low will combine with a passing cold front to result in periods of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will diminish from west to east tonight as the cold front passes east of the area.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. AN "UNSEASONABLY" STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH NEARBY WILL ENHANCE THIS POTENTIAL.
NEAR TERM MODELS CATCHING ONTO THIS AS WELL AS SUGGESTING A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH /PV LOBE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THEN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
127 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A W/SW WIND GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
AXIS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAIN CENTERED NEARBY. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA IS STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WEST AS WEAK TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WED. THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL FAVOR POPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD CENTRAL FLORIDA PROMOTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
325 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND A COLD FRONT SAG INTO AR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ NOTHING LIKE RETURNING FROM VACATION TO AN ACTIVE FIRST MIDNIGHT SHIFT THANKS TO A SOMEWHAT RARE LATE SUMMER COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT SHOULD STEADILY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
236 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
Temperatures are a little cooler across most of the area and range from the upper 40s and lower 50s in the mountain valleys to the upper 50s to around 70 in the Central Valley.
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FLORIDA AND BAJA PENINSULAS AND WEAK 500 MB INVERTED TROUGHINESS DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA. PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES DIRECTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
Despite direct insolation this afternoon, we will only see temperatures top out in the lower to mid 70s given the fairly anomalously cool airmass that pushed in behind this deep trough. For Wednesday night and Thursday, northwesterly upper level flow will fill in across the Plains behind the large upper trough.
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT BY WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY. BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE TROF HAS MOVED WEST OF THE REGION WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE DOWNSWING.
HOWEVER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES ITS EASTERN PROGRESSION. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
324 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 ALOFT - A RIDGE OFFSHORE SOUTH CA SPRAWLED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A LOW OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST TROUGHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A LOW WAS WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STRETCHED WEST. SURFACE - A LOW IN SOUTHERN MN HAD A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST TO THE EASTERN AND GULF COASTAL STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ABOVE FL AND HELPS KEEPS TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL OVERRIDE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
256 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2015 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A 100+ KNOT JET BROUGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE US. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTERNOON. WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
348 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL THEN NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. RIDGE OFF THE COAST MONDAY SO WARM UP CONTINUES.
113 AM MST SUN NOV 15 2015 JUST UPDATED THE ZONES AND WINTER PRODUCTS FOR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHERN SAN JUANS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TODAY. THE EC IS DIGGING THE LOW SOUTH THROUGH NE NM WHICH LOOKS TO ELIMINATE ANY TROWAL EFFECTS FOR NW COLORADO.
1155 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS EVENING. MOST DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. FAVORING THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. BY SUNDAY EVENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN US. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY TODAY AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS ALSO IN PLACE. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
THE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY.
429 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
1130 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNER REGION ON MONDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MID-WEEK.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE 500 MB TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U. HOWEVER THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN LARGELY SATURATED WITH THICK CLOUDS AND AT LEAST DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LIKELY SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THOUGH ANY RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH.
359 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING. THE MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW BRINGING SOME STRATUS INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
950 PM PST SAT NOV 14 2015 A warm front is lifting north of the area ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler temperatures and another round of strong and gusty winds Sunday.
248 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 Southerly winds between a departing area of high pressure, and a developing storm system, will help support another day with well above normal temperatures across central and southeast Illinois. Deepening upper trough just offshore of the West Coast early this morning. In the southern branch of the jet stream, a pronounced curl with an upper low was located over southern Utah. While this low will lift northeast into the Dakotas, moisture is already surging northward ahead of a trough just west of the Baja California peninsula. This moisture should rapidly surge northeast tonight as a significant upper low forms near Las Vegas within the deep trough.
/issued 148 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/ The approach and passage of a large upper trough will result in active weather across southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days. Strong height falls will commence Monday ahead of the main upper trough/cutoff low with a dryline sharpening over the area. Large scale lift will increase over the area Monday evening, and as low level convergence increases along the dryline due to a Pacific cold front colliding with it, think scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms will develop. Convection will likely conglomerate into a linear MCS along the cold front/dryline, fed by a h85 low level jet over the Permian Basin, and will move eastward out of the area late Monday night.
1122 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 940 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/ THE 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
353 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 (Today and tonight) A large scale upper trough developing over the western United States today will move eastward.
253 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL BEND. WILL ALLOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
Warmer low temperatures are likely tonight as a prevailing southerly flow continues to draw slightly warmer air northward into the area. Precip chances pick up early in the week as medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low pressure transitioning eastward across the Four Corners Region Monday setting up an increasingly more difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
311 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WESTERN ZONES FOR NOW ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW 40S BUT WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN CONUS.
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A BROAD/FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. QUIET/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. THINGS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGHS MONDAY STILL LOOK TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 50S OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REAMIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALCHIANS. WITH HIGHS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER.
417 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER ALL OF THE EASTERN U. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. AS A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
1203 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
942 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015 UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TODAY. THE EC IS DIGGING THE LOW SOUTH THROUGH NE NM WHICH LOOKS TO ELIMINATE ANY TROWAL EFFECTS FOR NW COLORADO.
305 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY TONIGHT. RIDGE OFF THE COAST MONDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING ALSO STRENGTHENING.
1102 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 THE PACIFIC COAST AND EXITING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE LOWER 48. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION OF MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SE TX. POPS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AS THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROF/LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST.
1248 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.
1146 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 High pressure will continue to bring clear skies to central IL overnight although the high centered over Tennessee will be far enough southeast to allow for a steady light south wind of 5-10 mph.
327 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
354 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND 60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
358 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
151 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE A SW WIND AROUND 12KTS BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 18KTS DURING PEAK HEATING. TODAY AND TONIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVES OVER NOAM IS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AGAINST A BACKGROUND OF BUILDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FLOOD OF WARM ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. 5KM LAYER MOISTURE PLOT SUGGESTS LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE SUCH THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF LAKE HURON.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL SHARPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID FIFTIES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1227 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
217 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MONDAY.
302 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 Water vapor imagery depicts a shrtwv trof w of Baja Calif with an abundance of mid/upper level moisture within the sw aloft e of said shrtwv trof with -SHRA on radar. At the surface, lee troffing will commence today underneath the sw flow aloft maintaining well developed se winds resulting in increased surface dewpoints. Minor shrtwv trofs are still favored into Mon AM with 90-100kt jet at 3h, thus -SHRA/-TSRA possible. As upper low nears the mid levels will cool underneath a seasonally warm boundary layer.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MID-WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SECONDARY WEAK RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE ANOTHER CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT, AS THE 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
1129 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
1244 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THICKNESSES INCREASING WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. 19 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES TO OUR NORTHEAST. PUTTING CENTRAL ALABAMA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
Despite clear skies, will see slightly warmer temps overnight, in the upper 30s to low 40s.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL CO. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CWA BRINGING STUNNING FALL WEATHER TO THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SHIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST AS UPPER TROUGH CRASHES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND MAKES IT INTO THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY. AND THEN AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
KDRT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE THUS HAVE THEM DECREASING TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING HOURS.
212 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U. THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT AND MON AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS TUE INTO WED. AS SW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF ONTARIO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH ERN COLORADO MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST.
258 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY.
331 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft will keep the region dry tonight and Sunday. In the mean time the aforementioned storm system will dig into the southwest US and become a closed low on Monday. Through the end of the short term period the track and magnitude of the upper low still differ between models, but the end result is beginning to a look little more similar, ie the isentropic upglide continues Monday into Monday night within the plume of deep moisture, so precipitation will continue to spread eastward and eventually cover our entire CWA.
304 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE THUS FAR WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.
1157 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS VERY DRY SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE PREVAILS. TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE/WARM AIR OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SPILL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR RIDGING TO PUSH IN ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL U. AS A SIZABLE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT AND MON AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS TUE INTO WED. AS SW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. A EXITING TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY /ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS/. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST HALF OF ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH E CO MONDAY WITH SHIFT E.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY. WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AS IT SLOWS UP AND PINCHES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. WITH BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS LINING UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR W TN THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS STILL PASSING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 78 62 72 / 40 60 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 75 61 69 / 50 60 40 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 75 60 69 / 50 60 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 73 59 65 / 70 60 60 50.