Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ongoing forcing through the evening and into tomorrow provided by QG ascent and vorticity ahead of the trough will keep showers and thunderstorms over the CWA. 80 over the higher terrain will bring thunderstorms with moderate rain, small hail and lightning. Showers will continue into the early morning hours with thunderstorms over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Subsidence behind the trough will help to clear out showers on the plains but kept a slight chance over the mountains as there will be enough instability and lingering moisture to help bring scattered storms by the late afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly warmer then previous days with lows in the lower 50s and highs on Friday in the mid to upper 70s. Upper level trof will be shifting East of Colorado and into central plains Friday evening.
The culprit for this pattern is a persistent upper level ridge centered over the S Appalachians with abundant low level moisture. Thus thinking any heat advisory headlines will be avoided with heat index values topping out in the mid to upper 90s across the Lowlands. with upper ridging across the eastern U. with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
239 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms through early Friday.
317 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon.
Can't rule out thunderstorm chances on a daily basis given the high moisture content and weak disturbances pushing through the area. Additional convection will fire up overnight as the low level jet develops with most of that activity remaining north and west of the CWA.
126 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
237 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 High pressure remains off the coast today. A cold front will cross the region early Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. A composite of mesoscale guidance suggests that any development likely to be in/near the central foothills of the Blue Ridge before the end of the day. Not only is the timing out of synch with favored diurnal trends, but west/northwest winds will promote subsidence, and at all levels above the surface ridging will reinforce that subsidence.
253 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 At 20z the synoptic setup was highlighted by a broad upper level trough over much of the western two-thirds of the conus, and a strong but low amplitude ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast US. At the surface a slow moving frontal boundary extended from the Great Lakes region through the Ozarks and into Oklahoma/Texas, with a weak low pressure center analyzed in northwest Missouri. Increasing DPVA aloft will slowly aid in the development of a lee side low over eastern Colorado, which will turn our winds southeasterly as the low level mass fields begin to adjust. In addition, both the GFS and the NAM advertise upper level clouds streaming into the area overnight, which may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously thought.
High pressure stretches west into the southeastern United States, supported by a deep, mid-upper level anticyclone centered near the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, a poorly organized wave of low pressure is nearing the Turks and Caicos Islands in the southeastern Bahamas.
254 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A weak surface front will settle southeast toward the region under high pressure aloft through Friday. High pressure will rebuild over the region through the weekend. At 200 PM Thursday: An upper ridge was located over the southeast this afternoon, and is expected to move little through Friday. The models show moisture lingering over our area, with the best moisture and instability over the Blue Ridge, especially on Friday. As of 2 PM EDT Thursday: A 594 dm 500 mb ridge will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic region through the weekend. Low level flow will be mainly easterly south of the mid level ridge axis.
348 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley will edge northeast into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend, keeping a hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Kentucky. Deep layer subsidence, stemming from the above mentioned upper ridge moving overhead, and a lack of forcing for ascent should lead to a dry Friday.
1154 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Broad upper trough over the area today, with additional energy dropping into the Great Basin this afternoon poised to swing eastward toward the state tonight. The trough over the Rockies will continue to bring us unsettled conditions through the early part of the weekend. then expect a gradual drying and warming trend as high pressure builds from the west. Temps over the Plains will slowly be rebounding into the low to mid 80s for Fri, and possibly into the mid-uppr 80s by Sat.
On Friday, ridging aloft and high pressure should make for a pretty nice day. We will see some moisture moving into the area tomorrow afternoon as we get into SW flow on the upstream side of the mid level ridging.
The deep layer ridge across the southeast U. The northeast flow around the high coupled with a coastal trough will bring isolated showers mainly to coastal northeast Fl tonight into early Friday morning. max temps expected to be warmer than today with readings in the lower/mid 90s inland to the upper 80s along the coast. Stacked high pressure will continue north of the region with dry air (PWATs below 1 inch) and subsidence bringing dry conditions over SE Ga while breezy onshore flow will focus waves of showers and potentially isolated tstorms moving inland generally along and south of a JAX to GNV line from the morning through the afternoon. Shower activity expected to increase over the adjacent Atlantic waters Sat night into Sun as low pressure 99L approaches south Florida and drifts slowly WNW through Sun night.
144 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Warm and humid conditions will persist today, with mid-level ridging centered over the southeastern states. The cold front moving into the area will be ushering in a slightly drier air mass, but the front is expected to be severely lacking in forcing and convergence.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 140 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely today as a cold front moves east across the area. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to middle 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s. Upr level trof over the nrn plains will move east to the upr grtlks today and to Quebec tonight. Post-frontal high pressure should build into the area tonight providing fair wx after perhaps a few lingering showers/storms se early. Temps should just cool back to normal with lows in the l60s and highs in the l80s, warming slightly Sat as the ridge moves east and wk waa develops.
317 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong subtropical ridge holding strong across the Southeast, with a trough amplifying across the Rockies. In its wake, the cold front along which it was traveling has slowly sagged into portions of west-central IL and northern MO. This convection will move/develop east northeast along and north of the boundary early Friday morning as the low-level jet veers and increases isentropic ascent across central and eastern MO. Deitsch Stalled frontal boundary to begin lifting back north as a warm front on Friday.
409 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Latest water vapor loops clearly show a rich plume of tropical moisture streaming northwest into the area from the Gulf of Mexico and around the western periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southeast U.
Temperatures are running five degrees or more warmer this evening.
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ High pressure over the area today is keeping things hot and dry. The next chance for rain looks to be Thursday evening as a mid level trough moves north of the area and a weak frontal boundary approaches the Red River Valley.
High pressure will remain in control keeping dry conditions in place. /issued 249 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A weak, inverted 500 mb trough has now moved well inland into Mexico, per latest water-vapor satellite imagery, after causing minimal impacts to the CWA.
524 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THURSDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS A RESULT OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
525 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 20z surface analysis had weak high pressure beginning to build into the forecast area.
20z surface analysis had weak high pressure beginning to build into the forecast area.
815 PM PDT Wed Jul 13 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected on Thursday.
1003 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The upper ridge over the area will weaken over the next couple of days. Further convective development is not expected due to lower level stabilization and upper level ridging. The upper level ridge off the South Carolina coast will shift east during the period. resulting in some weak upper level troughing over the Carolinas. Long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Mid atlantic and a surface boundary/cold front will remain north of the region.
715 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will drift south and weaken. cold front will move southeast toward the area Thursday.
With subtle upper level troughing developing across region 14/12Z-15/06Z, sct CB development from 14/16Z W lasting to 15/04Z possible. Per western gulf, srn Appalachians sfc ridging influences, s/sw 5-10kt range sfc winds generally expected.
739 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Mid level warm layer and high pressure influence nosing in from the east is helping to suppress convection this evening. /39 No change in overall pattern as high pressure continues over the southeast. 500mb weak low pressure persists over the northern Gulf and may again push convection from the FL panhandle into southwest GA this afternoon and evening.
1006 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Lee trough will help trigger storms in addition to a stalled boundary to the North.
737 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Hudson Bay into nw Ontario resulting in wsw flow through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended to wrn Lake Superior from low pres west of James Bay. However, downslope wrly flow should limit the pcpn progress beyond the higher terrain of the west half. Thursday, deeper wrap-around moisture with cyclonic low level flow behind the mid level trough, and another weak shrtwv will bring an increasing chance for light rain across the area. Otherwise, expect much cooler conditions with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Upper trough moving in late this week across Great Lakes slowly retreats across eastern Canada this weekend.
1020 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The return flow around high pressure anchored off the Atlantic coast will circulate warm and increasingly humid air into the region through Thursday. There is a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front begins to approach from the west.
Most of this low level moisture should stay just east and southeast of the Waco airport. /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ High pressure over the area today is keeping things hot and dry. The next chance for rain looks to be Thursday evening as a mid level trough moves north of the area and a weak frontal boundary approaches the Red River Valley.
/issued 157 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ The main story for this forecast package will continue to be the persistent heat that is expected to stick around the next couple days as an upper ridge holds strong over the region. At the surface, an area of low pressure remains centered over the TX/OK Panhandles extending south through SE NM and W TX today. Strong thermal ridge looks to remain over the area through tomorrow at the very least. MOS guidance has been way too cool with the high temperatures the last couple of days so decided to go with persistence and forecast highs above guidance for Thursday.
A cold front arriving overnight should bring winds up enough overnight to limit another worst than 4-6 mile fog potential.
Mainly south winds will continue, with the higher speeds and gusts at KABI. Upper level ridge remains centered over southern New Mexico and west Texas. 08 (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The upper level high will remain our dominant weather feature with hot and dry conditions prevailing. This high will be centered over the soutwestern states through the end of this week.
Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by Thursday afternoon as a cold front moves across the area.
617 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Some cooler air moving into North Dakota late this afternoon with temperatures only in the lower to mid 60s across northeast North Dakota. This cooler air will be moving into our region through tonight and remain into Thursday. Otherwise, the models show several short wave troughs dropping across the region from the northwest through Thursday night bringing off and on chances of showers and storms. The models also show surface Canadian high pressure dominating bringing below normal temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, with the cooler air moving into tonight, some places in the far northeast part of our region may just get to 70 degrees on Thursday afternoon.
809 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The upper ridge over the area will weaken over the next couple of days. Upper level ridging and weak mixed level instability will inhibit updraft strength. The upper level ridge off the South Carolina coast will shift east during the period. resulting in some weak upper level troughing over the Carolinas. Long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Mid atlantic and a surface boundary/cold front will remain north of the region.
1039 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The upper ridge over the area will weaken over the next couple of days. Further convective development is not expected due to lower level stabilization and upper level ridging. The upper level ridge off the South Carolina coast will shift east during the period. resulting in some weak upper level troughing over the Carolinas. Long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Mid atlantic and a surface boundary/cold front will remain north of the region.
possibly retreating back to the north as a warm front. and then pushing south again Thursday as a weak cold front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 74 91 / 20 40 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 91 72 88 / 10 30 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 91 72 88 / 10 40 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 68 86 / 20 50 40 40.
923 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The return flow around high pressure anchored off the Atlantic coast will circulate warm and increasingly humid air into the region through Thursday. There is a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front begins to approach from the west.
A cold front arriving overnight should bring winds up enough overnight to limit fog potential.
914 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front will slide off the coast through tonight.
(Issued 558 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016) (Issued 301 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning across south central Canada, while somewhat weak upper level ridging was situated along the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure extends across much of the southeastern CONUS, with the center of the high just to the southeast of the forecast area. A cold front trailing south of this low will move into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
Pops will be ramped up tomorrow, with the mid level trough and front approaching. Mid-level trough axis will be nearly bi-secting our forecast area by Thursday morning.
With subtle upper level troughing developing across region 14/12Z-14/24Z, sct CB development from 14/16Z onward possible. Per western gulf, srn Appalachians sfc ridging influences, s/sw 5-10kt range sfc winds expected.
1055 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will drift south and weaken. cold front will move southeast toward the area Thursday.
727 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 We have a smidge of convection along the cheyenne ridge. Added isolated thunderstorms along the Cheyenne Ridge. Similar conditions are expected through tomorrow as the moderate westerly flow aloft continues and weak high pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than what we have seen the past few days.
433 PM PDT Wed Jul 13 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected on Thursday.
Likely POPs were kept in the forecast for Thursday afternoon with front and mid level trough, but will be re-evaluated with next update.
Temps are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday with 15Z obs reporting in the upper 80s and the hotspot is in Winchester at 90 degrees already! Upper-level clouds ahead of the storm system located in the mid- Mississippi Valley will stream into the forecast area throughout the day. Also slightly lowered POPs as coverage will be more so isolated across the forecast area through this afternoon as we remain at the northern edge of the upper-level ridge.
951 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure will hold south of the New England today through Monday.
720 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure centered over the Eastern Great lakes will move off the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. This will allow low pressure to track along the Ohio River Valley Monday into Monday night. Another day of dry weather and filtered sunshine as high pressure remains over the area. The high. Even though winds try and shift to the south late today as the high shift east.
1137 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pattern shift begins today where we'll see the semi stationary front along the front range move out on the high plains. An increasing zonal pattern will focus a better chance for precip across the Dakotas and warmer temperatures return.
Another hot and humid day in store for South Texas as the midlevel ridge settles overhead.
Dewpoints range from the lower 60s on the cooler side of the boundary in Paris to the mid 70s in Clarksdale. Expect highs in the lower 90s north to mid 90s south with heat index values in the low 100s across at least the Delta region. A weak mid level trough will approach the region with showers and thunderstorms concentrated mainly to the NW of the Mid-South. Meanwhile a weak mid level trough will move across the Mid- South. Airmass will become fairly unstable Monday with SBCAPES approaching 2000 j/kg, lifted index values of -4C to -6C and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Weak trough will have mid level winds of 25-30 kts providing some shear.
1128 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A warm front will lift north into the area. A low pressure system will move across the region Monday afternoon and evening. Have opted for a somewhat narrow corridor for this watch where the highest threat appears to be at this time. Warm front will extend across the area and the atmosphere will have an opportunity to destabilize. More showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night as low pressure tracks across the region. especially near the warm front.
There appears to be a disturbance over wrn CO which is moving se and may produce a slight chc of showers this morning over the higher terrain south of I-70. For this aftn into this evening although precipitable water values will be decreasing there should be enough lingering moisture for some storms over the higher terrain especially along and south of I- 70. As for highs temps will be warmer this aftn with readings in the mid to upper 80s across nern CO. There is a flat upper ridge around with very weak flow aloft Monday and Monday night.
That said, both the 00 UTC suite of convection-allowing model guidance and more recent HRRR and ESRL- HRRR simulations support convective initiation along the surface wind shift/trough from near KDIK toward KMOT by around 21 UTC. A larger H5 low is expected to make its way towards the region later in the week, but timing of the weaker waves in advance of the low will be difficult.
1222 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure will be over the region through Monday.
Surface to 700mb flow had become more southerly as Atlantic high pressure ridge pressed slowly northward. This was starting to tap a little drier/warmer pocket of air in the low-mid levels. With some drying in the low-mid levels and still very moist low levels, the wet microburst potential should be a bit more elevated where the strongest boundary interactions occur compared to the last few days. Bermuda ridge axis drifting north will provide more of a southerly wind.
Another hot day is expected with readings near equal, if not 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday, as H925 temperatures increase slightly despite a weak trough moving across north- central Texas. As the weak trough pivots east Monday morning, stronger H7-H5 ridging will shift east over Texas and this will allow for slightly stronger heating. This heating coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will result in higher and more widespread heat index values reaching the 106-110 range.
In addition to the expected convection focused over central Utah, expecting another day of development over the higher terrain. Maxes are progged to be just a few degrees warmer than yesterday, near seasonal normals over southern Utah and a couple of degrees above climo for northern Utah.
916 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low pressure in northern Quebec will move into Labrador today while high pressure builds in the Mid-Atlantic states through Monday.
920 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure centered over the Eastern Great lakes will move off the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. This will allow low pressure to track along the Ohio River Valley Monday into Monday night. Another day of dry weather and filtered sunshine as high pressure remains over the area. The high. Even though winds try and shift to the south late today as the high shift east.
Cooler conditions will occur today and Monday with highs generally in the upper 70s to the middle 80s.
716 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A slow moving warm front to our south will gradually work north through Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. The greatest chance for rain will be near and south of the highway 24 corridor with lesser chances to the north. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 70s today. This is where best low level jet will be focused near warm frontal boundary and greatest moisture flux. This brings between a half and one inch of rain into our area from near Marion to Kalida and south as warm front inches northward. Warm front to likely move north into our southeast forecast area Monday while sfc wave moves along boundary.
1251 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure will hold south of the New England today through Monday.
Frontal boundary will wash out quickly with strong upper ridging becoming established.