Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/22/ A 500mb trough continues to remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon and through tomorrow. Though that upper trough is slow to progress. high pressure is building in at the surface behind the front that slowly made its way to the Gulf Coast last night. but the forecast guidance is bringing up the high temps a degree or so above todays across Central MS and ArkLaMiss. The dewpoints will still be relatively low for August, in the 60s, but the heat indices will creep up into the low to mid 90s with that slight increase in temps. signaling an end to the lower temps and dewpoints of late.
No other changes were needed as a dry and cooler than normal night is expected with lows in the 60s. /22/ Prior discussion below: A 500mb trough continues to remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon and through tomorrow. Though that upper trough is slow to progress. high pressure is building in at the surface behind the front that slowly made its way to the Gulf Coast last night. but the forecast guidance is bringing up the high temps a degree or so above todays across Central MS and ArkLaMiss. The dewpoints will still be relatively low for August, in the 60s, but the heat indices will creep up into the low to mid 90s with that slight increase in temps. signaling an end to the lower temps and dewpoints of late.
/Updated at 1047 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020/ The overall weather pattern remains largely unchanged from yesterday as we continue to sit in the base of a longwave trough.
A strong cold front will blast through the area on Thursday. Disturbances will move up ahead of the passing cold front and bring a threat of thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday morning.
Radar projections show storms in western Montana during Thursday morning with the highest concentration expected to be in west- central/southwest Montana. The first disturbance is forecast to move out of the region by late morning, which should cause a short break in thunderstorms before a much more vigorous trough arrives for the afternoon and evening. An associated cold front is expected by the evening, which will also be a focus of thunderstorms and gusty winds.
530 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Building high pressure will maintain quiet and mainly dry conditions through Thursday afternoon. Shower thunderstorm chances increase across the ridges through the week's end, with temperature increasing through the weekend. The exception would be across the eastern ridges, where daily shower and storm chances exist.
738 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the lower 70s.
1005 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure centered over the Upper Mid West will build across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday.
A cold front will bring drier stable air into most of southeast Oregon Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in southwest Idaho, especially over the higher elevations, ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler on Thursday, but still near normal. Surface winds mainly west to northwest less than 10 kts, increasing to 10-20 kts after 07/18z following a cold front.
1032 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A weak cold front drops to the south of our region tonight with high pressure moving in for Thursday.
Currently, remnants of Isaias continue to impact portions of the northeastern CONUS with a deep midlatitude cyclone churning over eastern Canada. An anticyclone remains over the Desert Southwest with northwest flow through the northern and central Plains regions. Another trough is impacting the west coast and the Pacific northwestern region.
340 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the higher elevations east of the divide today, with gusty winds continuing to be the main threat. Second, the added midlevel lift from the trough will allow more numerous showers and thunderstorms along the higher elevations of northern WY during the afternoon. Conditions will calm down after sunset with loss of daytime heating and the trough moving to the northeast.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: High pressure over the area brought dry conditions and sunny skies across the region today. The upper ridge begins to break down Thursday.
948 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the higher elevations east of the divide today, with gusty winds continuing to be the main threat. Second, the added midlevel lift from the trough will allow more numerous showers and thunderstorms along the higher elevations of northern WY during the afternoon. Conditions will calm down after sunset with loss of daytime heating and the trough moving to the northeast.
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. The axis of an upper level trough will be west of the forecast area (FA) today, extending into the TN River Valley. At the surface, a weak inverted trough will be over the Carolina Piedmont. Surface convergence and moisture advection along and east of the trough will fuel afternoon convection. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s today with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s.
403 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Mid/upper level troughing over the eastern U.
348 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure at the surface has resulted in a mainly clear sky early this morning. Light and variable winds underneath the high has led to fog formation from the Brainerd Lakes east to northwest Wisconsin. Upper level and surface ridging will cover the region today. The ridging continues tonight. The upper ridging begins to flatten late with the approach of a short wave trof.
104 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure building over southern Lower Michigan tonight will lead to mostly clear skies and calm to very light winds over the next 24 hours. Quiet weather continues today with large scale subsidence in the mid- levels as high pressure remains firmly overhead. This clearing will allow for significant radiative cooling to occur allowing temps to drop back into the lower 50's, aside from the Metro area or along the lakeshores which will see lows in the mid to upper 50's.
316 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Trough axis remains across the MS valley this morning with NW flow continuing across the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate the highest POPs early this morning generally south and west of a line from Leesville to Morgan City.
353 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. The axis of an upper level trough will be west of the forecast area (FA) today, extending into the TN River Valley. At the surface, a weak inverted trough will be over the Carolina Piedmont. Surface convergence and moisture advection along and east of the trough will fuel afternoon convection. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s today with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s.
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 (Today and Tonight) Dry and hot weather continues today as high pressure aloft centers over Texas.
1248 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A cold front will sweep across the area this evening.
309 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 ML/UL trough remains over the eastern US this morning. Upper trough does not look as sharp on Sat but the GFS, and EURO to a lesser extent showing a weak upper low over the OH valley on Sun, which will slightly deepen the trough once again. High temps will also continue their slow climb, with many in the lower 90s on Sat.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will bring another day of pleasant weather to the region.
340 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 The short term forecast is highlighted by warmer temperatures and a chance for thunderstorms in the southwest this evening. This morning, upper level ridging was beginning to build over the Northern Plains, with upstream troughing over western CONUS.
420 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Temperatures will trend warmer today and then rise above normal this weekend.
At the sfc, high pressure was located over northern IN and MI.
High temperatures will once again be in the mid to upper 90s along areas north of I-10 and in the low to mid 90s along areas south of I-10.
256 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure builds in today making for a mainly sunny day with low humidity.
306 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will keep conditions dry today under partly to mostly sunny skies.
327 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Persistence forecast in play today as SE MI remains under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure, now in place across the Great Lakes region and locations east.
159 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Warm, moist advection across central PA will increase shower/thunderstorm chances along the ridges this afternoon. As low-level winds veer from the southeast later today and advance moisture along the ridges, showers and an isolated thunderstorms may develop due to orographic lift.
A second zone to monitor will be northeast Nebraska where satellite showed clouds getting more agitated in the vicinity of a warm front. For Today A couple thunderstorms should linger around the region this morning as a weak warm front lifts north. Dry weather will prevail this afternoon as upper level ridging builds in behind the front. Humidity will increase as well, with dewpoints reaching the lower 70s by mid afternoon (thank you southerly flow and evapotranspiration).
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will keep conditions dry today under partly to mostly sunny skies.
450 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A weak cold front will drift into central NC this afternoon and evening, before stalling tonight.
Cooler temperatures are expected Thursday, then a gradual warming trend is expected through the weekend.
1252 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will keep conditions dry today under partly to mostly sunny skies.
However, haven't seen any observations indicating rain is reaching the ground, likely owing to some fairly dry air in the low levels. Expect a mainly dry day today with upper level ridging building in across the area.
Weak lee troughing will continue through the day light hours. have the highest confidence in the southwest.
338 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 As the ridge builds aloft, stratus and fog have developed again under it across the area this morning. This should break by mid to late morning leaving the region dry and warmer with highs in the 80s.
Highs today should top out in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the north today.
Plume of deep moisture will remain trapped over the Florida peninsula in a deep layer SW flow between a weak GOMEX trough and the western Atlantic ridge nosing toward the ECFL coast.
303 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A weak cold front will drift into central NC this afternoon and evening, before stalling tonight.
107 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure centered over the Upper Mid West will build across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday.
327 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Early morning water vapor imagery shows a plume of monsoonal moisture streaming up through the center of the upper ridge that is positioned squarely over the region. Although the ridge will hold firmly over the area, so will the fetch of mid-level moisture. At the surface, the quasi-stationary frontal zone that helped keep the bulk of the CWA cooler than expected yesterday still stretched across the central South and Rolling Plains as of 07Z.
912 PM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Cooler weather will continue as an upper level trough of low pressure impacts the region through Thursday.
346 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Low pressure over eastern Canada will track away to the northeast today.
1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Low temperatures this morning will be in the lower 70s.
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 An upper longwave trough from the Great Lakes into the southeast states will persist through the period.
351 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 An upper level ridge remains over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
427 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Warm, moist advection across central PA will increase shower/thunderstorm chances along the ridges this afternoon. As low-level winds veer from the southeast later today and advance moisture along the ridges, showers and an isolated thunderstorms may develop due to orographic lift.
With the low level ridge axis meandering across the Sunshine State, our region will lie on the southern periphery of the high pressure cell.
Depending on where the warm front sets up determines our likelihood of seeing nocturnal storms. Being on the east side of the low increases our chances for rain, but the more detailed timing of storms depends on where the low tracks and where convection initializes, a small deviation north or south could shift stormy conditions by a few hours.
High pressure over the region will continue to maintain hotter than normal temperatures this week. Overnight RH recoveries will be drier than usual as well, with the driest areas in the lower deserts. Slightly better recoveries are expected for the higher valleys south and east of Tucson aligning with the better monsoon moisture.
644 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Temperatures will trend warmer today and then rise above normal this weekend.
Upper ridge looks to be centered to our south, leaving the Panhandles under zonal flow aloft.
641 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will remain centered over Se Mi today, sustaining light winds. Persistence forecast in play today as SE MI remains under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure, now in place across the Great Lakes region and locations east.
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure builds in today making for a mainly sunny day with low humidity. Weak low pressure passes south of the area Friday, and could sneak a few showers and thunderstorms into southern NH. With Tds in upper 40s to mid 50s overnight, this should make for a good rad cooling night Add the fact that 850MB temps are close to 10C /the coolest we've seen in several weeks/ should make for a night with lows mostly in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 50s along the coast.
Still looking at the longwave trough axis just to our west.
As the period progresses, a ridge of high pressure will slowly advance toward the region from the southern Plains. On the leading edge of the ridge will be a warm front, and that will get here this weekend.
640 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure at the surface has resulted in a mainly clear sky early this morning. Light and variable winds underneath the high has led to fog formation from the Brainerd Lakes east to northwest Wisconsin. Upper level and surface ridging will cover the region today. The ridging continues tonight. The upper ridging begins to flatten late with the approach of a short wave trof. The surface ridging has departed Friday as the upper flow becomes quasi-zonal.
/issued 254 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and hot weather continues today as high pressure aloft centers over Texas.
Clouds make the high temperature forecast a bit challenging, but have noticed it seems many areas past few days have been near or a little above warm side of guidance and this likely attributed feedback from dry conditions with a dry ground having the ability to conduct heat far more efficiently. However, more uncertainty is present as models show some amplification of 700-500 mb ridging into the area overnight, and main signal for precipitation to our south/west within the strongest theta-e advection.
At the sfc, high pressure was located over northern IN and MI. High pressure over the Great Lakes Friday will keep our weather "dry", though a trough passing by aloft may bring a few clouds to the region. Have gone with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today, but they will depend on just how long the clouds stick around during the day.
306 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A trough of low pressure moving into California will continue to spread cooling inland today and maintain a deeper marine layer with coastal low clouds extending inland across much of the valleys this morning.
Highs today should top out in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Friday morning convection should come to an end by afternoon, however cloud debris will keep temps in the 80s for highs, while areas of central Kansas warm into the lower 90s.
The axis off the upper level ridge will begin to move over the High Plains today, shifting flow from the northwest to the west/southwest. A disturbance will move along the top of the ridge over CO/WY/NE in the afternoon and evening hours. As the disturbance moves over the region, storms will develop over the higher terrain and move east. Afternoon highs will be an important factor in initial thunderstorm development, as they should reach convective temperatures in the low 90s. On Friday, the upper level ridge will continue to shift slightly eastward.
/issued 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ Short Term (Today through Friday Night): The mid-upper level trough that has been nicely nestled across the Eastern CONUS the past few days has finally begun to lift northeastward, allowing the midlevel counterpart of the Atlantic subtropical ridge to build across the Florida Peninsula. Subsequently, the low-level ridge has also begun to feebly attempt nudging its way westward, allowing the flow through the atmospheric column to veer out the SE/ESE. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will soar each day into the lower 90s and only drop into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 along the east coast overnight.
/issued 316 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ Trough axis remains across the MS valley this morning with NW flow continuing across the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate the highest POPs early this morning generally south and west of a line from Leesville to Morgan City.
Mid-to-upper ridge axis moves overhead this morning as a warm front lifts over the area. Behind the warm front, robust CAPE of 2-3 kJ/kg will develop by early-mid aftn, with deep-layer shear in the 30-40 kt range. Axis of appreciable theta-E largely shifts east of our area by Friday as a front crosses the area, with warmer low-to-midlevel temps providing increased capping. As such, not expecting much convection during the day Friday, though another approaching cold front over MT/ND may promote the development of some thunderstorms, primarily across our NW.
/issued 351 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ An upper level ridge remains over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
With the sea breeze being the limiting factor of convection at the coast, it will also limit coastal afternoon highs to the upper 80s, with highs rising to the lower 90s over the interior. Near normal lows in the mid 70s, slightly warmer at the coast.
Highs on Friday will be cooler than today due to the cloud cover and precipitation, with highs in the low to upper 80s.
However, haven't seen any observations indicating rain is reaching the ground, likely owing to some fairly dry air in the low levels. Expect a mainly dry day today with upper level ridging building in across the area. Upper level ridging will remain in place on Friday and should lead to a dry day across the area. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening southerly flow which will usher in warmer and more humid air, setting the stage for shower and storm chances through the weekend. In addition, it does look like there will be some pretty stout capping in place as warmer air aloft moves in which would limit shower and storm coverage.
An upper low will lift a warm front northward through the early afternoon hours, with thunderstorm activity possible. This will occur along a theta-e gradient boundary ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the north today. The upper trough that has been parked across the eastern United States, including out region, will move off to the east by the end of this week. As we head into the weekend, the upper ridge will once again build across the Deep South.
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A weak cold front will drift into central NC this afternoon and evening, before stalling tonight.
Today: Upper level ridging is beginning to build into the region today. Tonight: Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the High Plains again and some of those could track eastward into the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to increase into the weekend as upper ridging continues to build in.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will bring another day of pleasant weather to the region. Friday's weather should be similar, though a touch warmer and more humid as H5 ridging builds over the forecast area.
The main story over the next couple days will be a trough of low pressure setting up along the California coast. It does appear wind speeds will be strongest across portions of western Coconino and Yavapai counties with this area likely seeing the highest gusts to around 35 mph. The troughs along the West Coast that have plagued us through the first half of the season continue to show up in the latest guidance.
Upper level heights will also rise on Friday as an upper level ridge over the southern Plains builds northeastward into our area.
Weak lee troughing will continue through the day light hours. have the highest confidence in the southwest. A deeper lee trough is expected to prevail on Friday, Another day of breezy southerly winds will prevail for the forecast period. With the stronger flow, expect highs to be much warmer with some downslope component to the low level winds. With the ridge building over the area, convective prospects look unlikely for Friday.
A second zone to monitor will be northeast Nebraska where satellite showed clouds getting more agitated in the vicinity of a warm front. For Today A couple thunderstorms should linger around the region this morning as a weak warm front lifts north. Dry weather will prevail this afternoon as upper level ridging builds in behind the front. Humidity will increase as well, with dewpoints reaching the lower 70s by mid afternoon (thank you southerly flow and evapotranspiration). Over The Weekend There are no significant changes to the weekend forecast since this time yesterday, with a building upper level ridge and southerly flow still expected to bring warm and humid weather to the region.
ML/UL trough remains over the eastern US this morning. Upper trough does not look as sharp on Sat but the GFS, and EURO to a lesser extent showing a weak upper low over the OH valley on Sun, which will slightly deepen the trough once again. High temps will also continue their slow climb, with many in the lower 90s on Sat.
With 500 mb ridge locked over Texas and deep layer moisture limited. the combination of lifting boundary layer moisture aided by (still) plenty in the ground should kick off very isolated quick-hitting showers from mid morning through early-mid afternoon mainly across the lower/mid Valley region.
1022 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure builds in today making for a mainly sunny day with low humidity. Weak low pressure passes south of the area Friday, and could sneak a few showers and thunderstorms into southern NH. Cirrus continues to obscure sunshine to a degree but temperatures are still warming on time, into the low-70s for most at this hour. With Tds in upper 40s to mid 50s overnight, this should make for a good rad cooling night Add the fact that 850MB temps are close to 10C /the coolest we've seen in several weeks/ should make for a night with lows mostly in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 50s along the coast.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 69 91 69 95 / 50 50 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 88 67 91 / 60 30 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 88 67 91 / 60 20 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 64 85 63 88 / 60 70 40 0 10.