Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For late this afternoon and tonight, widespread showers are coming to an end over far eastern Kansas at this time, with the back edge of the showers tied roughly to the H500 trough axis. As this energy lobe shears apart, it will leave in its wake a lee surface cyclone that drifts off the Front Range during the day on Friday. The effective warm front lifts just north of the region by the afternoon with slightly backed near-surface flow going into the evening hours.
West of the region early today, a weak trough of low pressure is acting as a lifting mechanism for scattered showers over Nebraska south into Kansas with a few light returns over Iowa, but not yet reaching the ground. High pressure over our area and dry air will limit any of the early morning showers aloft from producing much precipitation over the west and south. This will increase moisture into southern/southeast Iowa as thetae advection pushes north/northwest of the upper level low track. Rain showers will increase through the 6 hour period from for the southeast half of our area with the higher chances near Ottumwa. As the strengthening low pulls away tonight, clouds will be on the decrease and lows will drop to the lower 30s northeast to the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
On Friday, we remain situated between an area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and a developing trough along the lee of the Rockies. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon and evening as moisture begins to stream in ahead of the western CONUS trough.
High pressure will quickly build into the area behind this storm system bringing quiet weather to the area for most of the day on Friday.
419 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure tracking to our north and west will bring showers, a few thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts tonight into Friday. While shallow convection/showers and resultant mixing may cause some gusts as mentioned above, the main wind event wl likely be reserved until the cold front plows acrs the region on Friday morning. Mechanical mixing with that feature along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component wl be the primary threat with this low. Windy conditions wl continue through Friday morning, then ease as the low exits northeastward on Friday aftn.
The persistent cloud cover has put a damper on surface warming today, with afternoon highs only expected to top out in the lower 50's. While another cloudy day is expected, stronger wind speeds with the southerly flow will aid in bringing some warmer air to the area. An warm front is expected to extend into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska and aid in the possible development of some strong to severe storms. Effective bulk shear ranging from 30-40 kts and the aforementioned instability would support low-topped supercells around the warm front.
659 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Dewpoints are holding up quite well over the northern RRV this evening, mainly in the lower to middle 20s, as compared to last night. With a southerly mixing wind expected to persist overnight tonight, and with layered mid clouds coming in aloft, the current low temp forecast of lows in the lower 30s look reasonably safe. As clouds increase and temps remain above freezing overnight across northeast ND expecting precip to remain all rain with the possibility of a rain snow mix possible Friday morning in NW MN where temps will be a bit cooler. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with increased cloud cover with highs in the 40s for most.
With 850mb thermal ridge building into the area, highs will be 80-85 degrees.
VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast package as high pressure settles in.
Despite the persistence of hi-res model guidance wanting to generate a few showers from the sea breeze collision over the interior this evening, subsidence from ridge aloft and overall dry airmass will keep rain chances out of the forecast.
A cold front crossing the region will continue to bring snow showers through Friday afternoon.
213 PM PDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A cold front will continue to bring breezy winds, and scattered rain and snow showers into this evening. Warmer, spring-like conditions return this weekend.
/issued 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Weak upper level ridging has built over the region this afternoon with dry west-southwesterly winds. Tomorrow morning the upper flow becomes more southwesterly in response to an upper level trough digging into the Four Corners.
The Western Washington will continue to dry out through the rest of this week as a ridge builds into the area.
This will deepen the upper trough axis over the southwest states into Friday, and kick a short wave eastward across the Rockies which should reach western Kansas by tomorrow afternoon. Decent warm air advection north/above surface warm front should give way to elevated showers/storms. Could even see a few surface based storms try and develop where convergence is maximized along surface warm front late in the afternoon.
824 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure tracking to our north and west will bring showers, a few thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts tonight into Friday. While relatively shallow convection and resultant mixing may cause some gusts along with some thunder, the main wind event wl likely be reserved until the cold front plows acrs the region on Friday morning. Mixing with that feature along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component wl be the primary damaging threat as the low digs over the Great lakes. Windy conditions wl continue through Friday morning, then ease as the low exits northeastward on Friday aftn.
730 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Severe weather outbreak in the Deep South to remain well N of the local area as upper ridging continues to build over the FL Peninsula keeping those upper dynamics further away tonight. Tight gradient between surface ridging from the W Atlantic and southern storm system to relax overnight with lighter S winds into Fri.
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 (This evening through Friday) Clouds associated with the departing low pressure system (the same one responsible for the severe weather in the Southeast) will gradually decrease through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will drift east across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight, providing mainly clear skies and light winds. As the ridge moves east of our area, winds will turn back around to the south.
Upper trough digging southeast over the Intermountain West was generating lower elevation rain and high elevation snow showers. Clouds will continue to increase and lower ahead of the trough, with rain and snow showers gradually spreading west to east late this afternoon through tonight. Showers will become more widespread Friday, with periods of moderate snow possible over the higher terrain. It will be cooler Friday with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Otherwise, expect overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 30s. By Friday, the region will become situated in the warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front.
With the departing storm system this afternoon we should see fairly quiet conditions tonight as the surface and lower level winds will turn to the southeast and usher in slightly warmer air through the overnight. A 700 mb trough will also come in late tonight so we could see some passing mid and high level clouds towards morning.
451 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 19z surface analysis had low near the ND/MT/Canadian border with trough into eastern WY.
As the warm front lifts northward, the most favorable area for severe storms will reside across western Kentucky. With impressive SRH values and backed low level flow, initial supercell development will pose a tornado threat, especially along and south of the warm front. Temperatures will remain mild on Friday with southerly winds redeveloping helping to nudge readings into the low to mid 60s. To the south, there is a low pressure system in southern TX with remnants of a stationary frontal boundary arcing northeast to just south of TN. The system to the north has a low near southeast NE, with a warm front develop along the northern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area.
734 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The main forecast challenges to end the week include precipitation chances with an approaching low pressure and a considerable warmup over the latter half of the weekend. Guidance shows broad isentropic upglide ahead of the trough, especially prevalent at 295-300K. However, abundant dry air remains in the lower levels. Mid level fgen increases notably as the northern stream trough digs into Nebraska. Meanwhile, southeast low level winds push dew points into the lower 40s over central Neb. Cooler air quickly fills in behind the low, as shown by H85 temps dropping to 0C by 06z.
530 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Today, forecast guidance shows the CWA underneath an upper level ridge with a trough trailing it in the western CONUS. Winds should blow from the south at about 10-15 mph across the CWA with temperatures in the lower 50s that will decrease as the sun goes down. Tonight, models show the western trough making an eastward progress placing the CWA underneath the front part of the trough after midnight. Overnight low temperatures expect to range from the lower to middle 30s. Daytime high temperatures expect to range from the lower 50s to the middle 60s with overnight lows in the lower to upper 30s.
The back edge of these numerous showers currently resides just west of the MO/KS stateline, generally in concurrence with the trough axis.
This evening through Friday night Snow showers are ongoing across the west and will continue this afternoon, as the trough slides south. High resolution models show these spreading south and east of the Divide, but little to no accumulation expected today in the lower elevations with the dry airmass in place. Tonight, the low will stall over Utah, with the flow across the CWA backing to the northeast. Temperatures will warm well above freezing Friday, so road impacts will mainly be limited to the morning. Precipitation will end by Friday night as the trough exits the area.
846 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A cold front crossing the region will continue to bring snow showers through Friday afternoon.
The center of a vigorous trough was centered over the Great Basin during the afternoon, continuing to approach Arizona. The main trough axis will cross Arizona from northwest to southeast.
639 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Low pressure tracking to our north and west will bring showers, a few thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts tonight into Friday. While relatively shallow convection and resultant mixing may cause some gusts along with some thunder, the main wind event wl likely be reserved until the cold front plows acrs the region on Friday morning. Mixing with that feature along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component wl be the primary damaging threat as the low digs over the Great lakes. Windy conditions wl continue through Friday morning, then ease as the low exits northeastward on Friday aftn.
/issued 221 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Today is a brief period between upper troughs.
Forecast pavement temperatures along the border with MN/IA do not fall to around freezing until late tonight, and the precipitation should be over with in the western areas well before then. The models tend to weaken this with time with our focus shifting more to the influence of the low pressure system tracking to our south and southeast. The progs, and the ensembles, have been shifting the emphasis of the higher precipitation amounts further to our southeast. With the tighter pressure gradient evolving overnight the higher north/northeast winds most likely in our eastern and southeastern areas, especially close to Lake Michigan. Should see temps rebound into the 50s with cooler readings lakeside as winds turn onshore.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Friday Night/ A much quieter period is expected through tomorrow night as a high pressure axis quickly moves through the region. Friday should be a nice day with dry southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a digging trough over the Southwest U. Lower clouds will likely spread into the region late Friday night ahead of the approaching trough. This will result in lows about 10 degrees warmer than tonight.
Updated w/ a discussion for the 26/00Z TAFs A cold front will move through the state by tonight clearing out clouds and shifting winds out of the northwest.
Deepening low pressure is located near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers with its warm front reaching eastward roughly along I-64. The low will strengthen significantly as it moves into central Indiana by midnight, pulling its warm front north and its trailing cold front east into the region. In the storm's warm sector temperatures have crept into the low 70s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Instability is still low, but a tongue of higher SB/MUCAPE is poised from southwest Tennessee into the lower Mississippi Valley. The remaining precipitation is expected to develop as clusters ahead of a broken line attached to the cold front. The higher winds are expected in areas to the northwest of our CWA as this is closer to the low pressure system.
228 PM PDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Weak system going through the Great Basin is ushering cooler air over the forecast area today, as well as bringing breezy conditions to the wind prone areas of Kern County. A warming trend is forecast to occur through at least this weekend as high pressure builds. Starting on Friday, a ridge of high pressure will start to nudge its way eastward, rising max temperatures a few degrees over the forecast area to around 70 over the San Joaquin Valley.
Ahead of the frontal boundary some patchy fog may form with the higher low level moisture until the northwest winds and drier air moves in and made some minor adjustments to add patchy fog ahead of the frontal boundary. VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast package as high pressure settles in.
905 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 A weak cold front will impact the region Friday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
This will clear out this evening and overnight, allowing temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30s. By afternoon, a warm front should set up just south of the Kansas/Nebraska state line, with moisture and instability increasing near and south of it. Models are in general agreement that the highest coverage of storms will be in southeastern portions of the area, but an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across the entire area. Activity will shift east of the area after midnight as the upper trough axis moves through. Behind this system, a deeper upper trough will push through, ushering in gusty northwest winds on Saturday.
Vegetation has begun to green up across portions of the South Plains (thanks to recent rains) and will help mitigate some fire weather concerns, but grasses continue to remain dormant across the southwestern Texas Panhandle and extreme northwestern South Plains due to lack of rainfall and/or cooler temperatures. A cold front will move through the Southern Panhandle and into the South Plains near sunrise tomorrow morning as the upper trough moves over New Mexico.
Dewpoints are holding up quite well over the northern RRV this evening, mainly in the lower to middle 20s, as compared to last night. With a southerly mixing wind expected to persist overnight tonight, and with layered mid clouds coming in aloft, the current low temp forecast of lows in the lower 30s look reasonably safe. As clouds increase and temps remain above freezing overnight across northeast ND expecting precip to remain all rain with the possibility of a rain snow mix possible Friday morning in NW MN where temps will be a bit cooler. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with increased cloud cover with highs in the 40s for most.
Mostly clear skies will continue into tomorrow, boosting insolation and afternoon highs back into the mid-70s to low-80s, with the higher end of that range in our southern zones. Simultaneously at the surface, a warm front will proceed swiftly northward into the Ark-La-Tex overnight, enhancing moisture for precipitation along the frontal boundary. The warm front will also generally bisect the Ark- La-Tex by tomorrow night, creating a wider range of low temperatures from the low-50s to mid-60s.
316 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Deep low pressure will bring very windy conditions today, while showers and thunderstorms move east. Winds will subside later today as cooler and drier air settles into the region with high pressure.
With the departing storm system this afternoon we should see fairly quiet conditions tonight as the surface and lower level winds will turn to the southeast and usher in slightly warmer air through the overnight. A 700 mb trough will also come in late tonight so we could see some passing mid and high level clouds towards morning. A longwave trough will push a cold front through the region on Saturday and winds will turn breezy during the day out of the northwest. The cold air behind the front doesn't look too stout so highs will most likely be in the lower 60s.
Scattered snow showers continued over the higher terrain during the evening hours and will likely hang around the remainder of the night, most numerous across the higher elevations of far northeast Arizona. The center of a vigorous trough was centered over the Great Basin during the afternoon, continuing to approach Arizona. The main trough axis will cross Arizona from northwest to southeast.
The shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is coming to an end due to lack of surface heating and strengthening high pressure aloft. The thunderstorms were mostly IC lightning in the WA portion of the Lower Columbia Basin, and a landspout touched down in West Pasco. In the wake of the upper wave, a strong upper ridge will gradually build into the area from the eastern Pacific. As this upper ridge builds into the area, a rather noted warmup can be expected.
1044 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Convection has moved east of the area this evening and winds are gradually coming down in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather and only slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with temperatures warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain chances do return tomorrow night as the warm front lifts back to the north, but this looks to hold off until after midnight in most areas.
Today, warm southerly surface and low-level flow will continue with the 850 mb thermal ridge warming by 4-6 C compared to yesterday. This will result in warm highs today in the low 80s. Tonight, the upper level trough will have deepened into the 4 Corners region with continued southerly low level flow bringing up moisture and the potential for low clouds developing near sunrise Saturday. With the warming air mass and higher dewpoints (generally in the 40s to 50s) will result in warmer lows in the low to mid 50s.
Light southerly flow to return to tonight as a warm front lifts northward. Then, the associated strengthening cold front will press southeastward toward our area Saturday night.
Sfc cold front south from low NW of Dauphin MB to west of Rugby to near Bismarck. Temps are warmer than fcst in the cloud area so only liquid rain is falling. Winds turn west over E ND as cooler air moves in with highs today mid 40s to around 50.
(This evening through Friday) Clouds associated with the departing low pressure system (the same one responsible for the severe weather in the Southeast) will gradually decrease through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will drift east across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight, providing mainly clear skies and light winds. As the ridge moves east of our area, winds will turn back around to the south.
(Today and tonight) Mid-level ridge will shift eastward away from the area while a mid-level trough digs into Arizona today before beginning to shift east overnight into eastern Arizona/western New Mexico by 12Z/Saturday. This will stay far enough west that we will not see much with this system through 12Z/Saturday, except for the high clouds moving over the area today.
This was thanks to wet ground, high pressure overhead, and cool air as clouds clear. High pressure will move out of the area as low pressure develops in the plains. This will lift a warm front through the area and allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the middle 60s to lower 70s. The low will move slowly to the northeast through today and tonight with showers developing north of the Ozarks along the warm front, which will be across northern Missouri into Iowa. With the warm front well north of the area, overnight lows will linger in the 40s to around 50 degrees. As the low lifts north, a cold front will stretch to the southwest, nearly parallel to the upper level southwesterly flow.
1100 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Today, forecast guidance shows the CWA underneath an upper level ridge with a trough trailing it in the western CONUS.
1254 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Low pressure, tracking to our north and west, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region overnight. A front, on the southern flank of deep low pressure, will plow through the region this morning. Mixing with that feature, along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component, wl be the primary damaging threat as the low digs over the Great lakes. Winds will ease as the low exits northeastward this afternoon. Dry weather continues through Saturday as the high moves east.
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 WV imagery shows the trough that wreaked havoc in the southeast CONUS yesterday and this morning ejecting into the Great Lakes Region, while another trough digs through the western CONUS towards the Four Corners. Thicknesses come down a bit Saturday as the trough moves into the area, but westerly downslope warming will mitigate this somewhat, w/afternoon temperatures most locations similar to today's, if not a degree or two cooler. The NAM12 shows a weak mtn wave signature at best, and 700mb height gradients don't appreciably tighten w/the trough, so high winds are not expected in the Guadalupes attm.
There is a cold front trying to move into Corson county.
Stormy wx has passed and high pressure will be moving into the area.
and Saturday Some lingering light mixed precipitation is possible across the far southeastern cwa early this morning; however, precipitation has come to an end for the most part across the region as a low pressure system continues to pull away from the area. A ridge of high pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes region today, providing clearing skies and dry weather. This high will be slow to exit the region as another low pressure system approaches the western Great Lakes from the southern Plains.
Still deepening low pressure center that brought our severe weather last evening will continue rushing northeast well away from the region. A small bubble high pressure will nose into the region this afternoon and provide a brief dry respite as we close out the work week. These parameters combined with the cold front as the lifting mechanism give enough to warrant the Day 2 Slight Risk for the western half of the CWA.
- Warmer for the weekend with dry conditions expected. A warm front will lift through the area today, settling across northern KS/ southern NE into northern MO. This area of convection will then spread to the northeast along the nose of the low-level jet, clipping much of northwestern MO before moving to the north and east. Temperatures this weekend will be warmer than the last few days. For today, the warm front will lift north through the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 60s. It looks like our southeastern zones will climb into the low 70s ahead of the front.
1049 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 (This evening through Friday) Clouds associated with the departing low pressure system (the same one responsible for the severe weather in the Southeast) will gradually decrease through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will drift east across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight, providing mainly clear skies and light winds. As the ridge moves east of our area, winds will turn back around to the south.