Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WINDS HAVE ALSO BACKED IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH AND 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASED TO 193 M2/S2 FROM 94 M2/S2 THIS MORNING.
1002 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT HAS MOVED NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
NORTHERN UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOW. TROUGH FROM RESIDUAL UPPER LOW STRETCHES OVER THE STATE AS HIGH STARTS SETTLING INTO MANITOBA.
WITH THE HIGHEST BEING 74 AT ALI. EXPECT TEMPS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S EAST.
NOT TOO MUCH TO UPDATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NRN WISCONSIN WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND DRIFT EAST ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THRU NRN MN. INVERTED TROUGH SET UP FROM NR DULUTH TO BAUDETTE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SNOW TODAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
823 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. A BROAD HI PRES RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN GOMEX/NRN BAHAMAS WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE THRU THU. THEN BCMG W/SW OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AFT SUNRISE AS THE TROF PRESSES INTO THE NRN PENINSULA.
THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SE FM MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A 90KT H3 JET NOSES THRU THE ROCKIES ACROSS KS.
1022 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 CURRENTLY - A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO AMPLE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 70S. WILL UPDATE THE LOCAL FORECAST TO FRESHEN THE LOW TEMP FORECAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME SPEED UP TO 10 KNOTS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLANDS.
1007 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ALSO TWEAKED LOWS UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING DEWPOINTS UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
Deep cyclone over the Great Lakes early this afternoon with broad westerly surface flow across the area, gusty winds and temps in the mid 60s. Cooler trend will continue as well.
At the surface, we will continue to be sandwiched between low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure to our south through Thursday.
BETTER CHANCES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS BACKDOOR LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOW. TROUGH FROM RESIDUAL UPPER LOW STRETCHES OVER THE STATE AS HIGH STARTS SETTLING INTO MANITOBA.
RH will be rather low tomorrow with dewpoints in the low to mid 20s, producing elevated fire weather conditions once again.
802 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
807 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 RATHER WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH READINGS BY DAYBREAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. WILL GRADUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST.
WITH TEMPS ALREADY 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS IN SOME PLACES. AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS FROM THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR DEL RIO TO HUNTSVILLE TO OPELOUSAS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO TRANSITION TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ THE WEAK WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO NEAR A LINE FROM KCLL TO KUTS AT 3 PM.
1148 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL THREE TERMINALS TONIGHT. /ISSUED 230 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING PULLING UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR A HOBBS/WINK TO SNYDER/SWEETWATER TO WICHITA FALLS LINE LATER TONIGHT.
ENDED UP STARTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT NOON DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S.
Light and variable winds become light south in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 60s.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON THURSDAY. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.
904 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS FROM THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR DEL RIO TO HUNTSVILLE TO OPELOUSAS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO TRANSITION TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ THE WEAK WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO NEAR A LINE FROM KCLL TO KUTS AT 3 PM.
A BROAD H5 TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
A cold front will ease south into the area, but may not have enough push behind it to prevent IFR ceilings spreading northwest over KMAF around 17/10Z, along with MVFR visibility in fog.
Just mid and high clouds remain over the area this evening associated with weak mid level trough that will pass through overnight.
THIS WILL FORCE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE MPX AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
1154 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVG NWD ACROSS THE AREA. AEX LINE IS SLOWLY TRYING TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING BUT FEEL LIKE IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A TRANQUIL NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOLLOWED BY WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH TOMORROW.
IT WILL TURN COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WELL ADVERTISED STRONG LOW PRESSURE HAS HIT THE BRAKES (COURTESY OF BLOCKING OVER OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH). THAT BLOCKING TO OUR NORTH ALSO BREAKS DOWN. ALLOWING CANADIAN ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. DETAILS: WHAT'S LEFT OF CURRENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FILLING ON ITS SOUTHEAST DESCENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMITED DURATION/INTENSITY OF ANY SHOWERS.
601 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS AGAIN TODAY WITH CURRENT OBS IN THE LOWER 70S. 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORD SETTING TEMPS YESTERDAY. DRY AIR HAS ALSO FILTERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 1002 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT HAS MOVED NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
713 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 AVIATION WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT HAS NOW RETREATED TO NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE UNITED STATES WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD STALLED LATE THIS MORNING AND WAS NOW RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
1248 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
740 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 AVIATION WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS.
703 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER WI. DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW WAS ALLOWING FOR STRONG VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.
A weak cold front will arrive tonight and bring breezy north winds for Thursday.
850 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 UPDATE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW STALLS.
MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN WILL FURTHER/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. EXPECTED 8 TO 11 METER RISE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS A CATEGORY(~3 DEGREES)WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FORMIDABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY OWING TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY. WHILE IT FEEL WARMER DUE TO RISING HUMIDITY.
1134 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AND UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM. FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG OF CAPE. HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE. WITH A DIRTY RIDGE. BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 67 83 67 / 60 50 70 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 66 82 64 / 50 50 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 67 82 66 / 50 40 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 64 83 63 / 20 20 50 60.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVIDE AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TO LIFT OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTION TONIGHT WHERE HIGHER POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. TONIGHT COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH CENTRAL.
8 INCHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER KITTITAS VALLEY. AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL REACH NORTHEAST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW'S POSITION OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW GOING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARDS AND INTO NORTHEAST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A SKIP IN A RECORD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND A CLOSED LOW IS DROPPING S INTO THE PACNW WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND MOVING INTO NRN CA. THE NV SHORT WAVE RIDGE COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NWRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN ASSISTED BY THE NORMAL DIURNALLULL IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NW DESERTS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CELL OR TWO TO DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND MODELS HINT THAT THE NRN CA SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A THREAT OF MORNING CONVECTION TO THE NRN CWA TUE.
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 915 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS.
711 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
COMPARED WITH THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LEADS ME TO LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WHERE THEY ARE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA.
OUR EVER PRESENT LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED WHERE THE NEB PANHANDLE. A SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT OOZES DOWN IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK NORTHERN UPPER LOW. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEB AND KS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL AIR FAIRLY DEAD. WARMER THAN MANY CONSENSUS READINGS. APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVLE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND A SECOND SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VACATING SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
740 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.
654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS MORNING. GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 BAND OF RAIN/ISO STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-STATE AHEAD OF A SLOW APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 8 INCHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. -VINCENT FORMIDABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY OWING TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY. WHILE IT FEEL WARMER DUE TO RISING HUMIDITY.
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30 POPS IN THE FAR NW. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING.
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. NCEP MODELS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS QUASI- STATIONARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE ACROSS WASHINGTON IS ALREADY BEING FELT IN THE CWA. AN UPPER LOW SITUATED IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE W-SW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL MOVE IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON WHILE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEB WAS NOTED BY LIGHT WINDS. AND FOG HAD FORMED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION SOMEWHERE AROUND NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB SOMETIME IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
548 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT PLAGUED US ALL WEEKEND WILL BE OVER WRN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK BUT IT'S NOT DONE WITH US YET. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WA STATE AND WON'T MOVE TOO MUCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE JET STREAM HAS DROPPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BUT WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE CLOSED LOW KEEPING UNSETTLED WX IN THE PICTURE WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN ONGOING PATTERN WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT TO OUR EAST UNDERNEATH THE DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE ALSO CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST TO OUR NORTH WE WILL REMAIN DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT THIS MID LEVEL AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA TODAY.
944 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S.
LOCAL RADAR SHOWING A LONE SHOWER OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA AND NOTHING MORE. /ISSUED 515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/ THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W. AN UPPER LOW IS SETTLING INTO THE PAC NW AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST BY MIDWEEK.
934 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH. WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
857 AM PDT Mon May 25 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures this week with mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms afternoons and evenings through the middle of the week. High pressure dries things out by late in the week, with high temperatures peaking at 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
The HRRR has been very consistent in developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. Yet another mid/upper low. will open into a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern Baja by Wed morning.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40 WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT IS DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A DEEP UPR LVL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY THEN WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN AND AROUND THE HIGHWAY 14/118 CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WITH GRADIENTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -3. EXPECTING A 5-10 DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE OFFSHORE PUSH WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING THU UNDER WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW BUT A WARMER AIR MASS OVERALL.