Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will build across the region today, followed by a warm and dry southwesterly flow through the remainder of the week.
A cold front across the southeast will continue to enhance convection across the region through the near term.
334 AM PDT Wed May 5 2021 Today will be a little warmer inland and the marine layer a little shallower with coastal low clouds fog not spreading inland much past the coastal areas.
Other convection could also move in from the northwest into the Nature Coast later this afternoon and early evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. /issued 335 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021/ Upper level ridging continues to hold over southern Florida today while surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic across southern Florida. With ridging at the surface and aloft today, near record warm temperatures will continue, with highs in the mid 90s over the interior and around 90 along the coast. The cold front and associated storms are forecast to weaken as they push south, so the highest chances for stronger storms will be over the Nature Coast.
/Issued 235 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ It's a cool, crisp morning across the region for early May, as morning temperatures have dipped into the lower 40s and upper 30s in some locations.
Biggest question is how long with the low level MVFR clouds stick around. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 50 72 48 69 / 10 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 48 68 47 64 / 20 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 47 68 46 65 / 30 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 43 66 44 60 / 30 10 10 40 30.
/issued 249 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ Mostly quiet weather is expected to continue today and tonight with dry northwest flow aloft and a slowly approaching upper ridge axis just to our west. Otherwise look for modest low level southerly flow developing today and high temperatures climbing near or slightly warmer than normal for early May: lower to mid 80s.
The frontal influence will be more apparent Thursday with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s and highs in the low 70s north and mid 70s to near 80 south.
1006 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Expect rain showers early today before conditions trend drier and cooler this afternoon behind a gusty northwest wind.
732 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Areas of fog and low clouds along with occasional light rain showers will linger through the morning before a cold front and drier air sweeps across the region from west to east this afternoon and tonight, bringing clearing skies and cool conditions tonight.
A cold front was steadily sweeping through the TN Valley early this morning, bringing a sharp wind shift to the northwest and a much-welcomed drier airmass. Anticipate a few areas may peak in the low 70s. Overnight lows drop to the mid to upper 40s, but expect some valley locations to see the low 40s.
/22/ Today and tonight: Cooler and dry for much of the CWA through the period. There remains low chances for rain in our southeast this morning due to a cold front dropping into the area but this chance will end by noon as the cold front pushes southeast of our CWA. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the Natchez Trace with a 1020mb high centered over the central Plains. Broad upper level troughing will linger over our region through tonight maintaining a west to northwest flow aloft. The resulting CAA will keep high temperatures cooler than normal today and low temperatures cooler than normal tonight.
Winds will turn northerly with a cold front after 22Z.
757 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes is supporting stratus over Lower Michigan with VFR north of M 59 and IFR to the south. Cold air advection and subtle isentropic downglide will take place today as upper-level trough axis swings across Michigan between 12- 18Z.
High pressure aloft will bring a dry and warmer day today.
359 AM MDT Wed May 5 2021 Isolated showers will continue across the region for today, but upper ridging will extend warmer and drier weather conditions into the area by Thursday.
440 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Today and tonight: Cooler and dry for much of the CWA through the period. There remains low chances for rain in our southeast this morning due to a cold front dropping into the area but this chance will end by noon as the cold front pushes southeast of our CWA. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the Natchez Trace with a 1020mb high centered over the central Plains. Broad upper level troughing will linger over our region through tonight maintaining a west to northwest flow aloft. The resulting CAA will keep high temperatures cooler than normal today and low temperatures cooler than normal tonight.
Forecast soundings indicate decent lift in the low levels, while isentropic analysis shows broad upglide in the mid levels but notably shown on 300K surface. Cooled min temps slightly to range from around freezing along SoDak border to mid/upper 30s southwest. An upper ridge builds over the Intermountain West with height rises extending onto the High Plains.
555 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 (Today and tonight) Satellite and radar imagery showing some mid-level clouds over the High Plains and mostly virga moving into far northern Oklahoma early this morning. Will only bump MaxT temperatures up a degree from NBM to be closer to MAV guidance, which has been trending warmer over the last two runs.
Biggest question is how long with the low level MVFR clouds stick around. 2) Cooler weather expected today and will continue for several days. Expect showers to linger into the daytime hours, with the highest coverage across northeast TN and southwest VA closer to the exiting jet providing support for the stronger storms to our north. In the forecast have held onto clouds a little longer than NBM guidance since I think the low level moisture will remain longer than the models anticipate (which is a common scenario in a frontal passage out here). The other weather that most people will notice after the front moves east of the mountains is the much cooler weather. Temperatures today are expected to be about 5 degrees below normal, and the lingering clouds blocking out the sun will make it seem that much colder.
Cold front, which was stalled across the SE will continue to gradually shift out of the forecast area with support from an upper trough today. Building high pressure will keep the region dry on Thursday but temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.
This is all out ahead of the cold front that brought us the severe weather and heavy rainfall yesterday. Overnight lows drop to the mid to upper 40s, but expect some valley locations to see the low 40s.
653 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 A cold front will cross the region today with a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm east of the Blue Ridge. Behind the front brings a return to cooler and drier conditions for Thursday.
Today through Thursday The northwest flow continues today as a transitory ridge begins to push eastward into the area. On Thursday the ridge will move in further, with dry, warm, and sunny conditions expected across the board.
The weather will begin to shift on Thursday as a trough enter the area.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, a cooler and drier airmass will continue to filter into Southeast Texas through Thursday. Early morning temperatures (3 AM) have cooled down to the low to mid 60s inland and into the low 70s at the coast, and still anticipate seeing some low to mid 50s at a couple well inland spots before sunrise. Upper ridge over the Rockies migrates eastward into the Plains late Thu and Fri, and weakens through the weekend.
620 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure was in the process of settling over the region early this morning. This brought clear skies, light winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 40s shortly after midnight with morning lows expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the most part. Overnight lows will once again be cooler, in the lower to middle 40s, but cloud cover should keep temperatures from cooler much more. The rain should exit the region during the later afternoon with high pressure building into the area for Thursday night.
645 AM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Precipitation will taper off this morning and high pressure will provide decreasing clouds and cool weather through the rest of the day. An area of low pressure will provide the next chance of showers late Thursday as chilly temperatures prevail through the end of the week. High temperatures will run around ten degrees below normal as the longwave trough over the upper Midwest shifts east into the region. For Thursday, clouds will increase as a mid-level disturbance drops into the back side of the trough. Expecting considerable cloudiness to keep high temperatures down in the low to mid 60s. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
/issued 330 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ A broad upper trough is over most of the country. Upper ridging begins to develop over the region on Thursday. A weak cold front tries to come into the area with winds shifting to the north and east but this front will not have much impact on temperatures for Thursday.
High pressure will bring above average temperatures today and tomorrow.
224 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 (Issued 224 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: The upper level low over northeast Manitoba will slowly shift southeast into eastern Ontario Thursday night.
Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Cooler and dry for much of the CWA through the period. There remains low chances for rain in our southeast this morning due to a cold front dropping into the area but this chance will end by noon as the cold front pushes southeast of our CWA. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the Natchez Trace with a 1020mb high centered over the central Plains. Broad upper level troughing will linger over our region through tonight maintaining a west to northwest flow aloft. The resulting CAA will keep high temperatures cooler than normal today and low temperatures cooler than normal tonight.
157 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Drier, breezy and cooler conditions are expected tonight and Thursday as a cold front exits off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening.
1022 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 A broad trough affecting the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS remains anchored over Hudson Bay this morning. Temperatures are currently in the lower 60s area wide and will warm into the lower 70s in most areas. Expect a shot of cool Canadian air today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today, with highs in the low to mid 70s on Thursday and noticeably lower humidity.
Today and tomorrow will be fairly nice across the Northern Rockies as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. With the warming temperatures today and tomorrow, those that are planning to recreate near area streams, rivers, and lakes should be aware that water temperatures remain quite cold and in the low 40s.
1830Z temperatures are in the low 70s across much of the area, with mid-70s over the far western South Plains. This trough is progged to move through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. However, the high-based nature of the activity will support a risk of downbursts. As the low continues to move to the south, winds will become southeasterly, which will advect some moisture into the area. As upper-level high pressure will continue to build, we will high mostly clear skies with highs near 80 for tomorrow.
With the freezing level only at 5000ft, any stronger shower is likely to produce a few rumbles of thunder and small hail even with the shallow cloud tops.
Overall, a nice day in store for western Washington with low level offshore flow and upper level ridging influencing the region. High pressure aloft will bring a dry and warmer day today.
VFR conditions prevail tonight as high pressure builds in with northwest winds gradually tapering off and becoming light. Cold air advection and subtle isentropic downglide will take place today as upper-level trough axis swings across Michigan between 12- 18Z.
An associated cold front, currently across portions of Nebraska and Kansas will move southeastward through our forecast area late tonight and Thursday. Instability will also be more favorable due to daytime heating and relatively cold mid level temperatures in the upper level trough axis to steepen the lapse rates. There will be below normal low temperatures Thursday night due to cold air advection behind the cold front along with a clearing sky, diminishing winds, and lowering surface dew points for good radiational cooling.
Most of the low stratus was confined east of I-65 and south of the Bluegrass Pkwy. While a few high clouds may move over the region later tonight, we will be mostly clear with light winds and overnight lows in the low 40s with a few locations in the upper 30s.
400 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure ridging west from the Atlantic Ocean across south Florida will maintain the warm and humid conditions through Thursday with southwest to west winds persisting.
302 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 HRRR model showing quite a number of storms along the cold front that will move into the area by mid afternoon and exit the southeast counties during the early evening. As the storms developing along the cold front begin producing cold pools or localized downbursts, the uncapped region down stream may see a few storms developing in advance of the gust front. Models suggest the cold front stalls out over north central Kansas into west central Kansas this evening , and with the moisture left over from the exiting storms, the later evening and overnight could possible see some fog developing despite light southwest winds - a mesoscale problem better diagnosed later this evening.
Most of that has struggled to reach the ground with abundant dry air in the low levels, but a more "robust" shower was able to produce some light rain around Salina early this afternoon, perhaps due to enough precipitation loading for a few showers to reach the surface. While we should see decent insolation from clearing skies, the cooler air behind the front will keep up on the cooler side again with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Gilstad Weather pattern will remain unsettled today but transition to drier and warmer for Thursday. Mid level ridging will start building over western zones, so the best chance of showers today will be central zones this morning, shifting into eastern zones this afternoon. Ridging builds in from the west tonight and Thursday and this will provide mainly dry weather. Ridging will allow for warmer temperatures and expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Low clouds continue to move through the area this afternoon as high pressure at the surface moves in behind a departing cold front. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 72 48 69 46 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 68 47 64 45 / 0 10 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 68 46 65 44 / 0 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 66 44 60 41 / 0 10 40 30 10.
A wind shift from W to NW/NNW across central TN and northern AL, and a thin strip of light, non-precip radar returns edging into northwestern GA suggest the arrival of a cold front. The frontal influence will be more apparent Thursday with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s and highs in the low 70s north and mid 70s to near 80 south.
253 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Southeast breezes are waning across the Florida Keys as the western Atlantic ridge axis recedes to the east. Healthy cumulus streamers late this morning are now emaciated and eroding along the Lower Keys. The mean layer ridging will retreat to the southeast tonight and Thursday, giving way to lower heights along the southern flank of a long wave trough axis.
Ahead of this trough, we're looking at a cool night with light winds and clear skies. Tomorrow morning will be pleasant with the relatively dry air and light winds in place with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today's.
126 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Aviation - Upper troughing with cool weather and occasional showers - Upper troughing with cool weather and occasional showers Model guidance has been relatively stable the past couple days depicting the main synoptic features influencing weather across the central Great Lakes.
410 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northwest Ontario with a broad trough through the central CONUS. Otherwise, even with partly to mostly sunny skies, with the cool airmass in place temps have struggled through the 40s north and into the lower 50s south. Thursday, with steep sfc-700 mb lapse rates similar today, scattered/isolated showers should develop with daytime heating close to Lake Michigan where the low level convergence is strongest.
As the system moves away Thursday, yet another cycle of cooler temperatures, deep mixing, low humidities, and moderately gusty northwest winds will follow with somewhat elevated fire weather conditions north where the fuel state is more favorable. The broad Ontario centered long wave trough will remain in place to end the work week with one last short wave cyclone bringing a lobe of mainly kinematic/DCVA to the Upper MS Valley Thu Night, possibly brushing northeast sections with sprinkles or isolated light showers. One this passes, the pattern will become more progressive with upper level ridging building into the Midwest to end the week, which will briefly try to get our temps back to normal.
157 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 Fairly quiet weather will continue the next couple days before a somewhat more active pattern brings storm chances and more cold fronts to the region. A broad upper trough positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS will shift east as ridging builds in from the west.
High pressure will result in a drying and warming trend through Thursday.
1257 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 (Today and tonight) Satellite and radar imagery showing some mid-level clouds over the High Plains and mostly virga moving into far northern Oklahoma early this morning. Will only bump MaxT temperatures up a degree from NBM to be closer to MAV guidance, which has been trending warmer over the last two runs.
240 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure builds this evening with gradually clearing skies.
Otherwise, dry and cool weather will prevail, with temperatures THU morning in the mid/upper 50s across interior SE TX and Central LA to the lower/mid 60s I-10 to the coast.
Precip chances will diminish after 00z as the trough axis moves eastward & large scale subsidence works into the region.
This is close to the guidance blend and produced lows in the lower 30s in many areas. This forecast is slightly warmer than the guidance blend both day and night. Clear skies Thursday and strong warm air advection Thursday night are the basis for the warmer forecast.
Showers will clear from west to east late this evening and overnight, as mid- level ridging builds into the region. Dry and warmer conditions are expected for Thursday, as ridging continues transition eastward, over the region, ahead of the approaching low pressure system.
Of more important note is various forecast soundings showing 25-30 mph of wind at the top of the mixed layer along the Buffalo Ridge, which combined with RH values in the lower to mid 20s, could result in enhanced fire weather concerns.
This activity may linger into the evening hours before dissipating overnight as large-scale forcing for subsidence spreads over the region in the wake of the trough.
Kuroski (Issued 310 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021) Thursday night through this weekend: Northwest flow will dominate the upper-air pattern late this week through the upcoming weekend, keeping cooler conditions in place over the Great Lakes. Looking at the NAEFS guidance, there doesn't appear to be anything out of the ordinary in regards to the strength of the upper-level trough or strength of the low-level airmass.
Ridging to our west will build eastward which will bring nice weather for Thursday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Drier air will continue filter in through the short term as high pressure builds across the area. Tonight, lows will range from the low 60s north to 70s south. Thursday evening winds begin to turn more easterly with overnight lows in the low 60s north to upper 60s south.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 50s for most locations. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Thursday morning, before stalling and becoming diffuse. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s, with east winds of 5 to 15 mph.
An upper ridge will continue to build over the region today for mostly clear skies, light winds, and warmer temperatures.
However, the high-based nature of the activity will support a risk of downbursts. /issued 249 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ Mostly quiet weather is expected to continue today and tonight with dry northwest flow aloft and a slowly approaching upper ridge axis just to our west. Otherwise look for modest low level southerly flow developing today and high temperatures climbing near or slightly warmer than normal for early May: lower to mid 80s.
Tomorrow morning a cold front will move through the region and flip winds around to the north-northeast at HOB, CNM, and PEQ. /issued 330 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ A broad upper trough is over most of the country. Upper ridging begins to develop over the region on Thursday. A weak cold front tries to come into the area with winds shifting to the north and east but this front will not have much impact on temperatures for Thursday.
A low pressure system will move inland to the north Thursday through the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and a deeper marine layer.
1257 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure continues over the area with light winds and clear skies. 05/12Z TAF CYCLE Last of the low clouds currently working out of far SE AR, vcnty of KLLQ. Today Through Thursday Night Cooler and drier air contd to advect into the Natural State overnight. Upper ridging wl cont to bld ovr the Wrn States, resulting a NW flow aloft ovr the Mid-South.
/issued 1022 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ A broad trough affecting the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS remains anchored over Hudson Bay this morning. Temperatures are currently in the lower 60s area wide and will warm into the lower 70s in most areas. Expect a shot of cool Canadian air today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today, with highs in the low to mid 70s on Thursday and noticeably lower humidity.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 452 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 High pressure will provide decreasing clouds and cool weather through the rest of the day. An area of low pressure will provide the next chance of showers late Thursday as chilly temperatures prevail through the end of the week. For Thursday, clouds will increase as a mid-level disturbance drops into the back side of the trough. Expecting considerable cloudiness to keep high temperatures down in the low to mid 60s.
Today was an absolutely fantastic late-Spring day across Southeast Texas as high pressure provided ample sunshine, low humidity, and slightly below normal temperatures. These pleasant conditions will make a reappearance Thursday (albeit slightly warmer) as the high pressure dominates the weather. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than last night with minimum temperatures getting down into the mid 50s up north and low 60s along and south of I-10.
At the upper levels, models currently show broad troughing over the eastern CONUS as upper ridging builds over the western coast and over the rockies by Thursday. Given this low level shift, expect clouds to clear up this evening and winds to lighten up. Unfortunately this will also make for another cold evening with lows tonight near freezing throughout the forecast area. With the return to high pressure, dry conditions are also expected for the remainder of the workweek.
NC 349 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 Isolated showers or a thunderstorm is possible ahead of a cold front that will cross the coast tonight, then stall offshore.
Early afternoon temperatures were mainly in the low to mid 60s with a light and variable wind. Tonight: A weak cold front and associated upper trough will push southeast through the forecast area tonight into Thursday morning.