Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
511 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Looks like the mid level wave moving through is indeed helping to seed the lower status to produce some flurries. The low clouds in place look like they may get stuck. The low level inversion is rather strong and persistent as well. Seeder-feeder is when ice crystals fall from a higher cloud deck, in this case from the mid level saturation with the wave, to the lower cloud deck, resulting in snowflakes.
Rain chances remain highest along the Rio Grande in the lower Valley near Brownsville today and tonight, but amounts will be very light with no major flight restrictions anticipated. A sharp moisture gradient exists across the lower portions of the Rio Grande Valley and over the southern coastal waters. Today, scattered showers are possible again mainly in the lower Rio Grande Valley with below-normal temperatures as skies remain mostly cloudy.
417 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with frontal boundary stretching southeastward across MT and into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the Rockies, with fast northwest flow in place over the Northern Plains. Quiet weather to continue over the next couple of days as ridge slowly shifts east across the Rockies and Plains.
High pressure will then build in the southeastern U.
Light sfc winds are expected to prevail as high pressure moves acrs the region. Light W winds have kept temps in the lower/mid 30s overnight. Overall, temps wl stay abv seasonal norms, with readings a few degrees warmer Thu compared to today.
402 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Benign weather expected the next couple of days as SFC to mid level ridging traverses the Gulf coast states underneath westerly flow aloft. Changes will begin late THU with the onset of a more onshore flow and resulting increase in MSTR, with the initial effects coming in the way of increasing cloud cover and warmer overnight temperatures THU night into FRI morning. FRI night on into SAT becomes a bit more interesting and uncertain, with global models depicting the development of a SFC wave/low over the northern Gulf ahead of an approaching upper trof and associated CDFNT.
The result will be warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Thursday, the warming trend is expected to continue as an upper low tracks from northern Mexico northeastward to southwestern Oklahoma. This will help to bring much warmer temperatures and stronger winds, but no precip. Highs will be in the lower to upper 60s.
and Thursday IR satellite imagery shows that any breaks in the clouds over the area are quickly filling in as mid and low level clouds advect in from the west as a mid level trof moves through the western Great Lakes. Weak surface ridging will push east today, as high temperatures rise into the 20s under continued mostly cloudy skies. Upper level ridging will keep the weather dry on Thursday as warm air advection allows temperatures during the afternoon to rise into the 30s across the region. Despite the upper level ridging there will still be clouds to contend with at times with isentropic lift from a surface warm front situated across Iowa and Illinois.
High pressure will bring a warming trend and dry conditions to the area through Wednesday.
/Issued 303 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ The weather across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be rather benign Today as high pressure prevails.
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 High pressure will continue to build to the east and northeast of the forecast region. Will monitor for temperature trends with cloud cover, but overall temperatures should be maxing in the low to mid sixties. A weak trough will push offshore of the Carolinas this evening producing variable winds. Once this trough presses offshore, a stronger northeast wind surge will push southward over the local waters tonight with exercise caution conditions expected as winds increase to 15-20 kts.
Also noticed that the observation site in Poplar showed some patchy freezing mist, frost, or freezing fog. BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridging over the western U. By Thursday, the ridge will slide downstream of the forecast area while a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest amplifies across the western U.
1258 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure continues to provide warm and sunny conditions across the Bluegrass state. High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. A few afternoon CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region.
The highest rain amounts Will be in the southern James River valley with nearly two inches expected with generally around a half inch central to lesser amounts west.
/Today through Tonight/ There will finally be some changes in the weather this period as the current Rockies long wave trough begins to slowly advance eastward. Dewpoints should be similar to yesterday as well, in the low/mid 60s, so heat indices are expected to be tempered somewhat and only at or just above air temps.
1212 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure over the region will weaken and shift inland during the first part of this week, as Hurricane Maria tracks northward off the Southeast U. A cold front will approach the forecast area late this week. Dry high pressure will remain situated over the forecast area Monday as Hurricane Maria travels north offshore.
The upper low, seen best via experimental GOES-16 high altitude 6. On a wider view, upper troughing extended southward to the Great Basin, with general ridging north of the southern low. Overall, weather systems including the hurricane will move slowly over the next few days, thanks to a blocking pattern across Europe. The upper low will slowly move westward and gradually weaken early this week. The presence of the low west of the region, along with strong early autumn heating, could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
However, satellite imagery and model analyses both show a cut-off low moving E to W to our south during the day, which will aid in broad scale lift and instability. High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep hurricane Maria well east of this region.
Dewpoints should remain in the lower to mid 60s with heat index values in the mid 90s. HAASE The synoptic situation remains the same through Monday, and with the past two days resulting in heat greater than model guidance, I will go above guidance in the lower 90s Monday since the front remains west of the CWA.
High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. A few afternoon CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region.
640 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A prominent mid-level trough centered over the Great Basin early this morning will edge east into the central Rockies by tonight before ejecting northeast across the northern and central Plains Monday and Monday night.
A weak frontal system is expected to move through the area towards the middle of week, otherwise high pressure is expected. Otherwise, strong mid level ridging aloft should result in dry and warm weather today. Model data suggest a static weather pattern will continue during this period with strong mid level ridging over the Ohio Valley, and long wave troughing over the Rockies. Operational and ensemble data suggest little threat for precipitation during this period, given the strong upper ridge overhead.
The upper air pattern hasn't changed much at all with the upper high centered to the north of the area putting us in an easterly flow regime. Ridging influences sfc/aloft will continue to provide VFR conditions thru 25/06Z all terminals.
Water vapor shows upper trof across the Rockies with low spinning over Utah. Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in the higher elevations of the Black Hills may support some snow, but any accumulations are light. Upper low over Utah weakens and moves into Wyoming on Monday, with scattered showers across the area.
Water vapor imagery showing upper trough over the Rockies with a stronger wave in it rotating northeast into southern Utah. Decent moisture feed downstream of the trough is interacting with a deep frontal boundary from eastern Colorado into north central Nebraska to produce scattered showers over western portions of Kansas and Nebraska overnight. Should see high cloud increase from the southwest through the day and with continued cooler air pushing in from the south- southeast, have highs again a bit cooler than the previous day. On Monday morning, the mid-level trough will be located over the Rockies with southwest flow persisting over northeast Kansas as the trough slowly moves eastward through the day.
555 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A closed upper low will move from central UTah to the northeast today and reach southwest Wyoming by about 03z tonight. This area will be close to the low center and receive persistent though decreasing precipitation until about 12z Monday. Snowlevels in the wake of trough passage will remain near 9000 feet. The large block that has been in place keeping this trough anchored over the Inter- Mountain West will let up and allow the pattern to become a more progressive in the higher latitudes. It is there where the ensemble relative measure of predictability strongly supports an amplified ridge setting up across the northern 2/3 of NOAM by late in the week. This is because an area of low pressure well be left behind by the departing trough early in the week.
/issued 413 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Ahead of a large upper trough centered over the Four Corners Region, strong deep layer southerly flow is streaming moisture northward through much of the Southern High Plains and into the Northern Plains. Farther to the east, a weak high-over-low blocking pattern has become established across the Eastern CONUS. The upper ridge is currently centered over the Lower Great Lakes Region. A weak upper trough is drifting westward near Mobile Bay. Northerly flow on the western periphery of the trough is drawing very dry air from the Lower Great Lakes southward and across the Four State Region. Isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will remain possible with the low-level sea breeze influence, but those chances are few and far between.
1251 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure ridging at all levels continues to exert strong influence on Southeast Michigan weather. The record early fall heat has been driven by a strongly amplified and stable upper air pattern over North America that is producing a 591 dm ridge at 500 mb directly over lower Michigan. Satellite imagery and model analysis fields indicate the core of the ridge is still in place during the early morning but simulations show with good agreement that it will drift eastward through the day. This will still result in widespread high temperatures in the lower 90s but likely not as many mid 90s readings compared to the last couple of days.
Anyway, analysis shows a closed upper low in the vicinity of the Florida Panhandle region this morning. At the surface, a front is currently stalled out in the high plains, with high pressure covering much of the lower Mississippi Valley. The high will keep any large-scale convection suppressed over the next two days. However, with the upper low in place, we can't rule out any isolated showers/storms as daytime heating interacts with any mesoscale boundaries and weak energy associated with the low.
933 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the region early this week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. The axis of the upper ridge will move into the area today with 500mb heights gt 590dm and 850mb temperatures around +20 degC. A relatively deep layer of dry air within this upper ridge will combine with large scale suppression to keep skies mostly sunny today and allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. With a very warm summer like high pressure still sitting lazily on top of the area, we can expect yet another night with valley fog Monday night with lows of mainly lower-mid 60s.
An inverted trough axis has returned to the southern CWA and will continue to extend from the Central Plains into MN today. Rainfall coverage will be a bit less across the southeastern counties but with some warmer temps in the 70s there will be some weak elevated instability and some thunder possible.
Ridging influences sfc/aloft will continue to provide VFR conditions thru 25/06Z all terminals.
In addition to the rain, also monitoring and area of fog which has developed in the higher terrain across southwest Minnesota early this morning.
A strong, quasi-stationary longwave trough continues to dig over the western half of the CONUS with a blocking high over low setup found to its east. The upper-level ridge we've been talking about the past few days has finally shifted north and is now centered over the southern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The broad cyclonic circulation to the south of this ridge continues to drift to the west and will gradually impinge on the Mid-South today and Monday. We will, however, see slightly cooler mid-level temps which should weaken the cap and allow a bit more diurnal convection to develop this afternoon.
/issued 451 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A large upper trough will remain west of the area through tonight but will inch closer to West Central Texas through the period. Temperatures will be cooler today as cloud cover will be more abundant, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.
A closed upper low will move from central UTah to the northeast today and reach southwest Wyoming by about 03z tonight. This area will be close to the low center and receive persistent though decreasing precipitation until about 12z Monday. Snowlevels in the wake of trough passage will remain near 9000 feet. The large block that has been in place keeping this trough anchored over the Inter- Mountain West will let up and allow the pattern to become a more progressive in the higher latitudes. It is there where the ensemble relative measure of predictability strongly supports an amplified ridge setting up across the northern 2/3 of NOAM by late in the week. This is because an area of low pressure well be left behind by the departing trough early in the week.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper low over the Great Basin this morning with trof extending northward across Montana. Upper trof easing eastward today will push the showers into North Dakota with some clearing possible across the west. Showers could return to southeast Montana on Monday with upper low moving across the central Rockies. By Monday evening, the slow-moving low pressure trough will have consolidated into a small, upper-level closed low center directly over eastern Montana.
Area 12z soundings also a little cooler than 24 hours ago.
Warmer and drier today than the last and breezy as a north-northwest flow aloft mixes to the surface. Northerly flow will continue through the period as an upper ridge gradually transitions into the Pacific NW.
Off and on rain showers will continue today, before slowly diminishing in intensity and coverage from west to east tonight, as the elongated area of low pressure exits across Minnesota and the 500mb low over UT ejects northeastward.
Temperatures will be in the lower 80s along the coast, and the mid to upper 80s to near 90 inland.
This is within a band of enhanced meridional flow and relatively deep moisture upstream of a deep/anomalous upper trough.
Heavy rain and flooding concerns highlight the forecast for the Water vapor imagery and upper-air data this morning show a large upper low centered over the Great Basin with a jetstreak moving northward through NM and the southern Rockies. The highest chance for heavy rain will likely be found across the Caprock, in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent. A cold front enters the picture late Monday.
On Monday, the mid-level ridge axis currently in place should begin to slide eastward.
Weak upper level low pressure will shift slightly northwest over Mississippi today. Quiet weather will continue tonight, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and lows in the low to mid 60s.
655 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low along the Utah/Nevada border with a deep trough of low pressure extending south into the Gulf of California. East of the trough, a blocking high was located over the LP of Michigan with a low south of the high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is in response to the surface front being pushed further east as the upper level low lifts from Utah into Wyoming.
High pressure aloft will produce a dry mild day today with clouds gradually increasing in advance of an incoming weakening weather system.
An upper low over Utah will track northeast today, keeping cool and wet weather in place. Another upper low will likely impact mainly southern and eastern Utah during the second half of the week.
956 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Mostly sunny skies are expected today under high pressure. Look for another day of hot weather across southern Wisconsin as we remain under the western periphery of a massive upper level ridge. Still looking at 582dm plus heights with lingering anticyclonic curvature around the mid level ridge slowly shifting to our east.
Surface wise, our region lies on the southern periphery of a large, albeit weak anticyclone centered over the western Pennsylvania and upstate New York.
An area of low pressure may pull moisture back into eastern Arizona by the middle and end of the week supporting some late season showers and storms. With the main jet core now translated towards the eastern side of the trough, the central vorticity core will lift through the Rockies leaving neutral to weak warm advection in its wake over Arizona the next several days. However with much of the flow pattern blocked across the southern Conus, full latitudinal troughing will linger through the forecast area keeping H5 heights hovering around 576dm and muting a more rapid and substantial warming trend.
500 mb troffing continues to slowly strengthen over the RGV as a deep closed low digs east from the western states and another open trough over the Gulf coast drifts west towards the TX coast. This increasing 500 mb troffing will combine with the daytime heating to help generate some afternoon and early evening conv over the region. For temps will edge back the highs a bit today and Monday as the 500 mb troffing increases over the region.
The upper level low that brought light precipitation to Lincoln County yesterday has moved over Utah today and will continue to lift northeast.
As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range from the low 70s across west central Kansas to upper 80s across central and south central Kansas.
Looking at the 500 hPa height field this morning, the 588 dam ridge centered over the region yesterday has shifted northward over the Ohio River. This will result in a ridge over the western two-thirds of the CONUS and trough centered over the NE. This pattern will allow for an area of high pressure to build southward from northern Canada.
625 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Weak energy ejecting from main upper low has diminished. central Rockies upper low will continue to dominate our weather pattern over the next couple of days as it slowly shifts northeast and fills in. Despite upper low shifting through to the northeast we will still be in a cyclonic pattern with increasing northwest flow in the mid levels by the latter part of Monday. Otherwise any snow accumulations will amount to a dusting in the foothills or higher ridges.
926 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 An amplified pattern aloft continues across the country this morning with a large trough over the western part of the country and ridging over the central and eastern U. South of this ridge is a low centered along the northern Gulf coast region and Florida remains on the eastern periphery of this feature. At the surface, Hurricane Maria continues to move northward just to our east as high pressure remains centered over the northeast. High pressure centered north of the region will keep an east to northeast wind flow in place through the next couple of days, with flow turning onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze.
An upper level low over the region will continue to enhance instability today and help ensure scattered puffy cumulus clouds form quickly during the late morning to midday time frame. Otherwise, anticipate high temperatures to generally top out a degree or two cooler today across the region owing to the slight cooling influence of the upper level low overhead.
The upper low will continue to meander westward today toward Mississippi, meanwhile low level ridging will remain in place over the eastern CONUS, with weak low level convergence over the coastal waters.
/issued 415 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: Large, but relatively weak upper level low is centered across the northern Gulf Coast this morning while Hurricane Maria continues to move to the north well east of the Bahamas. The upper level low is forecast to meander a little west today, while Maria continues it's trek to the north with no threat to Florida. Special 06Z MFL sounding shows PWATs remaining on the high side of normal around 1. The mid-upper level low that is currently meandering around the northern Gulf coast is forecast to be absorbed into the larger circulation around the storm by midweek, leading to a trailing trough across the Florida peninsula.
WV imagery indicates an amplified upper level trough moving slowly east into western portions of the Central Rockies while a south- southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is located across northeast New Mexico with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast into western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range from the low 70s across west central Kansas to upper 80s across central and south central Kansas.
729 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017 This week will begin with cooler than average temperatures today and Monday.
1049 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Only adjustment for near term was to slow warming temp trend in otherwise nice quiet day on tap with ridge dominated regime. 00Z model guidance in very good agreement showing weak upper low caught inside long wave, high amplitude ridge to continue drifting southwest away from the state taking any convection with it. Still looking at dry and above seasonal normal temperatures through the work week as the region remains under weak upper ridging with persistent northeasterly low-level flow maintaining a stable airmass over the forecast area. Will see milder temperatures and at least a slight chance for precipitation returning as we head into the weekend as the upper ridge breaks down.
715 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Mostly clear sky and light wind is expected to persist through tonight as a strong upper level ridge over the Great Lakes drifts to the east. The record early fall heat has been driven by a strongly amplified and stable upper air pattern over North America that is producing a 591 dm ridge at 500 mb directly over lower Michigan. Satellite imagery and model analysis fields indicate the core of the ridge is still in place during the early morning but simulations show with good agreement that it will drift eastward through the day. This will still result in widespread high temperatures in the lower 90s but likely not as many mid 90s readings compared to the last couple of days.
736 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry through mid week. A trough of low pressure will bring cooler, more seasonable weather to end the upcoming week.