Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few observations did hit local Warning criteria, but considering extensive road closures & reduced impact on the highway, opted against any headlines for now.
Water vapor imagery at 2030Z shows the upper low located over northeast KS, swinging northeast with the next upper low right over CA and heading southeast.
716 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Approaching low pressure will support light precipitation across the area tonight and Tuesday.
Vertz A powerful low pressure system over the midwest will exert its influence over our region tonight and Tuesday as an upper low associated with the midwest system forms over SW South Dakota this evening. The band appears to have a steep precipitation gradient on either side and combined with fact temperatures will hover near freezing late tonight and early Tuesday, snow amounts will vary dependent on where band sets up and on elevation with hilly areas picking up more than river bottoms. Rain showers at the lower elevations should switch over to snow after midnight for most areas. Slushy or slick roads are possible over these areas, especially over bridges by tomorrow morning.
/GG/ Tonight through Tuesday: The cold front which pushed into the area earlier this morning has begun to stall out as the mid/upper support pulls away to the northeast.
527 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper low centered over the South Dakota side of the forecast area, which will very gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days. Due to the placement of the upper low, moist cyclonic flow will continue over the forecast area. Some weak disturbances rotating around the upper low will bring periods of light snow, or snow showers, tonight through Tuesday Tuesday night.
856 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Approaching low pressure will support light precipitation across the area tonight and Tuesday.
Wrap-around moisture, associated with the cut off low pressure that is currently over CA/NV, continues to propagate over southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon this evening. A strong surface pressure gradient is also currently over the area this evening, resulting in northwest wind gusts of 30-45 mph over southeast Oregon and the Lower Treasure Valley.
We will continue to be dominated by the upper low aloft, but little in the way of forcing will be present tonight.
A dome of high pressure to our northeast remains in control of the weather pattern for the Sunshine State. The upper level ridge that has been place over the region is slowly becoming flattened due to an active weather pattern. This ridge has been keeping a lot of the active weather to our north, but as it does so, like stone along the shore, has been slowly eroded over time. The bulk of this will stay to our north but is evidence of the long wave trough digging across the Central Plains. The aforementioned dome of high pressure is starting to build as it slowly meanders south and east. This high will get a push as a continental high descends from Canada and enters the North Atlantic waters.
724 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A cold front will continue to push eastward through the region tonight.
632 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 (Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story for today.
Behind the departing low pressure system over the weekend, H500 height fields will temporarily wane going into the tonight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in the northwestern Panhandles to lower 40s in the southeast Texas Panhandle under partly cloudy skies. Going into the day tomorrow, a narrow corridor, but a notable LLTR will move north-northeast out ahead of a eastward tracking upper level low across Arizona and New Mexico.
Guidance is in good agreement on another round of marine fog working inland overnight with the highest probability of visibility restrictions at BPT and LCH. Water temperatures remain in the low to mid 60s for the lakes and eastern coastal waters, thus expecting another round of fog overnight as the front beings to lift back to the north. As the next system approaches the western plains on tomorrow, the warm front will lift north across the area as a warm front and showers and thunderstorms are likely along and north of the front.
Introduced some MVFR VIS at KLLQ where a warm front will lift northward by daybreak Tuesday.
A weak upper low pressure center is slowly moving southward across Oregon just east of the Cascades this evening. There is evidence of wrap around circulation around this low as some showers are moving from southeast to northwest over northwest areas of the forecast area (mainly central and south-central Washington). The presence of this low pressure system will keep rather unsettled conditions over the CWA tonight, which will be followed by improving conditions on Tuesday as this disturbance exits the forecast area to the south and east.
Other change is the lows. /issued 456 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021/ Upper level ridge will continue to move off to our east over the next 24 to 36 hours. An occluding low pressure system will track along the upper midwest tonight.
456 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Upper level ridge will continue to move off to our east over the next 24 to 36 hours. An occluding low pressure system will track along the upper midwest tonight.
Some weak QG forcing and moisture near the center of the cutoff low has produced some light snow showers across far northern Weld and Morgan counties this afternoon, and this will likely continue for the next several hours as the low continues to drift away. Lows tonight should be a bit cooler than guidance, in the upper teens to low 20s. The cooler temperatures could also cause some issues with re-freezing on roads that haven't completely cleared today. Models show a compact upper low tracking from California to northern New Mexico. Expect only minor impacts with this storm as most of the forcing will miss northeast Colorado to the south, with light accumulations of generally 1 to 3 inches in the high terrain and less than an inch at lower elevations.
743 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A low pressure system will move through the region tonight and Tuesday.
622 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 An upper level low currently over the Northern Plains will remain there tonight and through the day Tuesday before slowly getting pushed eastward Tuesday night. At the surface, weak high pressure will build back in as a low pressure system to the south slides eastward, then will remain the main weather feature through the short term period. The main result will be a prolonged period of low cloud cover, and occasional periods of light snow/drizzle/freezing drizzle, along with overnight and early morning fog. As the upper low finally begins to push east late Tuesday night, may see the ceilings rise enough to bring an end to any light precipitation.
east to southeasterly winds are expected to return ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the southwest.
A fast moving front will bring bring another round of valley showers snow across the high country from late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will drop to near or below freezing across much of the area tonight, including near the coast.
703 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A wintry mix will track through this afternoon into early this evening, with patchy rain and freezing drizzle possible tonight.
858 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 (Issued 859 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021) Light freezing drizzle has become more widespread across southern Wisconsin in the last hour or two, though light snow continues to occasionally mix in. With the loss of cloud ice some light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible before ending early Tuesday morning. Ice accumulations of a light glaze will be possible with the light freezing rain and drizzle as temperatures will be around freezing. Quieter conditions set up for Tuesday as a weak high pressure sits over the area.
326 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A cold front will continue to push eastward through the region tonight.
1017 PM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A low pressure system will move through the region tonight and Tuesday.
655 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 GOES water showing a closed low over NE with a large conveyor belt of moisture rotating ahead of into our area. However, as this main band of snow exits, some freezing drizzle is possible on the backside this evening into the overnight hours. Will leave snow amounts/headlines alone for now (ending at 6 pm) but will be in monitor mode with that freezing drizzle potential and impacts.
Rain/freezing rain has been the predominant Ptype earlier today south of I-74. As a vort lobe in the upper level low passes over central Indiana, rain will resume early tonight. Overnight lows will trend above normal with readings in the low 30s to upper 30s/low 40s (south).
313 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Compact upper cyclone moving into the southwestern states will eject east today, with deeper moisture currently across southeastern TX poised to surge north.
By tonight, a strong upper level low will begin to dig into the central Plains. As this happens, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a lifting warm front. Current model guidance suggests that the atmosphere will be conducive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms as the warm front lifts north during the overnight/early hours on Wednesday. The highest area of concern will be across portions of south central Missouri (along the Missouri/Arkansas border) where better destabilization will take place through the early afternoon on Wednesday.
While the low clouds should at least partially clear later this evening in the westerly flow, winds become light and then easterly overnight. Next upper low over California will turn eastward across the Las Vegas area tonight, then move over the southern Rockies during Tuesday. As it emerges across the southern high Plains Tuesday night, elevated low level moisture transport will occur along/north of a increasingly baroclinic warm frontal zone near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Then depending on the speed/track of the low, it is possible some redevelopment of strong/severe storms are possible in far southeast Kansas around midday Wednesday, before the dry line and Pacific frontal occlusion occurs in the early afternoon.
Our focus then shifts to the upcoming dry cold front that will push across the area early Wednesday. Wednesday's cold front may also potentially ignite some showers and thunderstorms near coastal areas and just offshore.
Dry weather is on tap today through most of tonight, as low pressure takes shape well to our west and moves over Oklahoma by 12z Wednesday.
Precipitation chances will continue to increase as an associated cold front is pushed towards the region, with highest chances/coverage expected with FROPA.
Ceilings will improve to MVFR by mid morning as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in response to a northward retreating warm front. /issued 1019 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021/ The upper level ridge has broken down and the warm nose aloft has weakened over the last 24 hours.
405 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 The upper level flow over the eastern US this morning is characterized by fairly zonal flow, while a trough is located over the northern and central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the northern Great Lakes, with the ridging extending into the central Appalachians. An area of low pressure is located well to our southwest over Arkansas with a frontal boundary stalled out over the deep south. We have already seen some areas go from the lower 40s to around 50 in the last hour. While moisture is fairly limited with this feature, there is some potential for some shallow instability to develop as surface temperatures climb into the lower 70s.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 53 68 59 70 / 40 20 90 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 51 66 57 70 / 20 10 80 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 67 50 65 56 71 / 10 10 80 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 47 70 53 70 / 20 10 50 90 70 TN.
High pressure begins to build early tomorrow and continues Wednesday with gradually warmer conditions.
305 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Outside passing high clouds, high pressure will generally provide quiet and dry weather through Wednesday.
The atmosphere has destabilized south of this warm front due to daytime heating where the sky has cleared out. Although the stratus cloud deck has hindered the diurnal heating north of the warm front, lessening the instability, there still may be at least small hail from storms in parts of central and east central MO late this afternoon and early this evening with a relatively low freezing level. Showers and scattered storms will spread east-northeastward into our forecast area on Wednesday as upper level divergence increases over the region ahead of the upper low, and as a south-southwesterly low level jet ahead of the approaching 850 mb low brings increasing low level moisture into our area. The CIPS Analogs show the highest probability of severe storms should be south of our forecast area where instability should be more favorable.
For Wednesday, the forecast area will be in a warm advection pattern within the warm sector with highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 60s. However, the main event should be in the form of a squall line ahead of an approaching cold front.
1049 PM MDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper low centered over the South Dakota side of the forecast area, which will very gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days. Due to the placement of the upper low, moist cyclonic flow will continue over the forecast area. Some weak disturbances rotating around the upper low will bring periods of light snow, or snow showers, tonight through Tuesday Tuesday night.
Axis of the elongated upper low responsible for the mixed precip over the past 12 to 15 hours has shifted in to Lower MI. More sunshine and warmer temps expected on Weds then today as high pressure shifts east, with increasing SW flow. Clouds will quickly move in Weds night as closed upper low will track from the TX Panhandle at 12Z Weds to N Carolina by 12Z Fri.
A strong upper level low now approaching the southern California coast is forecast to approach the southern Plains and mid south by late Tuesday, along with an associated surface reflection. As the low approaches, the atmospheric column will demonstrate a pronounced ageostrophic response, with precipitation developing from south to north late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The cold front will move eastward through the forecast area Wednesday afternoon.
Ahead of the low pressure system currently over eastern KS, a warm front is draped across central MO. Increasing mid level lapse rates and instability resulting from the low approaching the area and surface warming has resulted in a few showers popping up near SGF. Continuing to advertise a severe weather risk late Tuesday night into Wednesday as another low pressure system moves directly through the CWA.
(Today and tonight) An intense upper low center over southern CA this morning will move eastward to eastern NM by mid-evening Tuesday.
345 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Early this morning, a pair of closed lows were present across the CONUS: the first centered just north of the forecast area over South Dakota and Nebraska with the other over southern California. Further north, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s. The closed low currently over California races eastward during the day today approaching the Plains tonight into Wednesday. While the warm sector remains south of the CWA, models depict MUCAPE to the north of the warm front still on the order of 500-1500 J/kg which, coupled with plentiful effective shear, would be supportive of elevated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards.
310 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Crossing low pressure should maintain rain chances today. Dry weather returns by Wednesday under high pressure.
257 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A closed low pressure is currently located over southern Nevada and is expected to progress eastward over the course of today and tonight. Later today as the low passes over New Mexico the forcing will become maximized across the region. With the instability scattered showers are expected, and perhaps a few embedded storms, this afternoon with development over the higher terrain. Relatively warm temperatures will also increase the potential for a rain snow mix or all rain in the lower elevations. By this evening the low will lift out over the plains and forcing will decrease causing showers to dissipate.
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Remnant upper low over southwest SD this morning should slowly/gradually advect to the east/ne through today and tonight. It appears that a wave aloft associated with the low will track across the region through tonight. On Wednesday expect the remaining upper low/trof to have pushed off to the east, so pcpn chances should pretty much end over the area.
1218 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 (Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story for today.
As is strengthens and pushes eastward, a warm front is expected to develop and pull northward through Middle TN Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the warm frontal passage and I really think this is going to be our wild card in regards to how much of Middle TN sees a severe weather threat. However, if the warm front lingers and doesn't make it into KY Wednesday morning, additional morning/early afternoon rainfall would act to stabilize the atmosphere across most of the mid-state and limit the spatial threat of severe weather Wednesday evening. For now, our main focus is going to be across the south and the rest of Middle TN will need to watch the warm front closely.
327 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Cool high pressure over the region will give way to a warm front moving northward across the area today.
A strong Pacific cold front will surge through the forecast area late tomorrow evening, shifting winds to the west at around 20-25 mph and remaining quite breezy overnight. late Tuesday into Wednesday an upper level low will quickly move northeastward just north of the CWA. Models seem to be in good agreement with the speed and location of the low, bringing it through the area shortly after sunset Tuesday. Winds will start to die down Wednesday evening as upper level ridging settles over the area to close out the work week. The ridge remains overhead through the weekend with a slow warm-up into the 70s and breezy spring afternoon winds. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front, with minimum relative humidity values cratering into the middle and upper single-digits as intense mixing occurs through the mid-levels.
However, mid level lapse rates are less impressive, and shear is on the low end overall. The models are in good agreement on the track of the low and line/boundary sweeping across the region.
A cold front will continue to push eastward through the region tonight.
1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 GOES water showing a closed low over NE with a large conveyor belt of moisture rotating ahead of into our area. However, as this main band of snow exits, some freezing drizzle is possible on the backside this evening into the overnight hours. Will leave snow amounts/headlines alone for now (ending at 6 pm) but will be in monitor mode with that freezing drizzle potential and impacts.
1236 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 High pressure will build across the region late tonight through Tuesday, then move east Wednesday.
Areas of fog will be possible over north MS and portions of west TN near the TN River toward morning, as the aforementioned stationary front begins to lift north as a warm front. A potent upper low will move out of the Four corners region later tonight. The low will progress eastward, and interact with our warm front. As the day progresses, the warm front will continue to lift north into our area. As that warm front progresses, convection should fire in the warm sector as well as discrete cells forming with the approaching cold front. There is a the warm sector could be worked over due to storms developing with the warm front.
This will maintain patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle at times into dawn before precipitation chances crater with the loss of any notable lift in the column.
only possibly reaching the low 50s in Kansas. Tonight, chances for rain return as another cutoff upper low tracks across the southern Plains.
230 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 An elongated low pressure pressure system is currently over eastern Montana early this morning. Moisture has converged on a surface boundary along this low which has brought a mix of rain and snow to parts of the area overnight.
500mb plots reveal three cut-off lows resembling the holes of a bowling ball.
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Outside passing high clouds, high pressure will generally provide quiet and dry weather through Wednesday.
High pressure will bring drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with temps trending back up toward seasonal norms.
Meanwhile, the models are now keying on another trough in the northern branch of the upper level flow, spinning across the upper mississippi river valley Wed. Rain/snow look to be the main pcpn types, although some lack of ice in the cloud initially (Wed morning) could bring a brief period of freezing pcpn chances. The GFS and EC still pointing to amplified upper level ridging for the weekend - favoring dry, sunny conditions.
128 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A wintry mix will track through this afternoon into early this evening, with patchy rain and freezing drizzle possible tonight.
1019 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 The upper level ridge has broken down and the warm nose aloft has weakened over the last 24 hours.
1206 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Approaching low pressure will support light precipitation across the area tonight and Tuesday.
Dense fog and patchy drizzle will be slow to lift this morning as a subsidence inversion traps moisture in the lowest 3 kft of the boundary layer. We favored the cooler side of guidance for highs. Overnight temperatures should favor the warmer side of guidance as (1) heights across central IL increase in response to warm air advection, and (2) fog development prevents us from radiating out. Light rain will begin to spread into the region late Wednesday morning with good theta-e/moisture return gliding north of the warm front.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this evening along a stationary boundary/warm front to our south, and will mainly impact southern and eastern zones for the remainder of the overnight through mid morning.
A downward trend in precipitation is expected today as an upper level low ejects eastward. Dry and warmer conditions are expected for much of this week as high pressure builds over the region. Another system may bring another round of light precipitation, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds this weekend.
Temperatures across the island chain are quickly moderating from their minimums in the lower 70s, with most stations reporting temperatures in the upper 70s at this hour. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to highlight large- scale ridging over much of the Florida Peninsula. With these considerations, another dry afternoon expected across the island chain, and temperatures should be able to top out in the lower to mid 80s.
A large upper low remained over the region early this morning but much of the precipitation over the Northland had ended. Some pockets of freezing drizzle were reported in the Brainerd Lakes area and this activity may persist through daybreak or a little later before ending. A cold front will push it east tonight into Wednesday. The GFS/GEM try to wring out a little QPF as the low/front passes, but the ECMWF/NAM remain dry.
639 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Cool high pressure over the region will give way to a warm front moving northward across the area today.