Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
mid-level anticyclone becomes re-established over the northern peninsula, while at lower levels, CWA will be between high pressure over the Gulf and the tail end of a weak trough dropping into NE FL waters. Broad high pressure extending from the NE Maritimes to the Nrn Gulf Coast will steadily drift offshore the Atlc coast through mid-week. Onshore winds will moisten the local environment mainly in the lower levels with an increased gradient pushing a high theta airmass from the very warm Atlc waters across the area. PoPs will remain somewhat limited by presence of upr high pressure over the SE as well as less favorable NE flow advertised from the sfc through at least 10K ft through Wed and diurnal range remains capped SCT in cvrg through mid-week with best chcs mainly along the Space/Treasure csts and inland from the immediate cst.
Highs will be warmer than yesterday, reaching the mid 80s to upper 80s mostly, but could reach around 90 along the NE/SD border region. Southerly breezy winds continue overnight, but it should remain dry, in advance of the trough currently moving through the 4-corners region. Low level moisture will continue to deepen Tuesday on continued southerly flow ahead of the upstream trough and cold front that moves in Tuesday night.
405 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure dominates through most of the week. with only a weak cold frontal approach late week. Cold front is moving offshore this morning. High pressure over the Ohio river valley will begin to build east. High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Northern extent of southern upper ridging gradually builds into the region through midweek. sprawling high pressure builds in from the west through midweek.
The 500 mb ridging in place over the Gulf of Mex should build west today and Tuesday which will dry out and stabilize the atms over the region reducing the conv chcs. As the 500 mb ridging builds over the region temps should warm up a bit through Tuesday as the 1000-500 mb thicknesses increase and the diurnal heating builds.
245 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 244 AM CDT Today through tonight: Early this morning skies remain mostly clear, as high pressure centered over Missouri begins to push east. Temperatures will continue to radiate prior to daybreak into the lower 50s and could see a few sites in the west/northwest forecast area fall into the upper 40s. But with the southerly flow persistent through the night, lows tonight will be several degrees warmer in the upper 50s to around 60.
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley today.
so if enough lift can be realized from the earlier storms over the Sierra, something may pop at the lower elevations.
428 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 Cold front shifting east of Vermont this morning will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across the North Country today.
341 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016 Water vapor loop showed an upper low over central British Columbia with a trough into the Pacific Northwest. A weaker upper low was situated over western Arizona. A broad upper ridge dominated the Rockies and high plains. There is good agreement from the short range models progging the upper ridge axis to progress east across the Great Plains and Midwest through Tuesday. The British Columbia upper low will also track east across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s.
646 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A weak cold front will push through the region early this morning and become stationary near the CSRA. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will build over the area through mid week before the upper ridge builds back over the southeastern states. A dry weak cold front across the northern Midlands at 07z will move slowly through the region this morning. So expect slightly cooler and drier conditions with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weak isentropic lift and weak short wave trough moving through the area suggests a few showers may develop.
648 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure dominates through most of the week. with only a weak cold frontal approach late week. High pressure over the Ohio river valley will slowly build east today. High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Northern extent of southern upper ridging gradually builds into the region through midweek. sprawling high pressure builds in from the west through midweek.
253 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Surface pressure will gradually tighten today as the lee side trough deepens under southwest flow aloft. Ahead of that trough low level moisture will be in place when the lift increases. The isentropic lift does not appear that strong, but the low level jet does try to nose over that area towards sunrise.
Extended models continue to show a retrogression of the upper ridge into the southwestern states.
Strengthening high pressure aloft across the region will generate very warm and generally dry conditions across most of Utah throughout the upcoming week.
/Tonight/ Cold front has passed southeast of the forecast area however the high dewpoints are lagging post front a bit from Ottumwa to Lamoni with dewpoints still in the upper 70s. High pressure has been moving into Northwest Iowa from the Dakotas and Nebraska this afternoon and is helping bring dew points in the low to mid 60s to the state. Very pleasant overnight with the lows in the 60s.
An upper ridge extending eastward from the four corners region over the mid atlantic states and western Atlantic will divide over the Mississippi River region as an upper low pressure area over the southern Florida peninsula moves east. The upper low is expected to be over the central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the near term, with an inverted upper trough extending northward over the southern Mississippi River states.
Much drier mid and upper level air advected across the local area this evening on the northern periphery of a retrograding upper level low moving across south Florida. Low temps will fall to near 70 inland where dew pts mixed out into the lower 60s today across parts of NE Florida.
An 850-mb trough extended from western ON through WI/IA/KS, with moisture pooled along and ahead of the trough.
However, there is a weak reinforcing vort max rotating around the back of the upper trough through southern Manitoba. Some radar returns have started to develop north of the border, and the high res models have some of that activity moving into our north and east during the 4 to 8 PM time frame. Winds will shift to the south and temps will be a bit warmer with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s again.
SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALOFT. BUT STILL DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE EAST AND WE WILL HAVE MADE SOME RECOVERY FROM YESTERDAY COLD FRONT. A few thunderstorms will continue Monday evening, with a few stronger storms possible over the far eastern plains as a jet near the area travels over the upper ridge.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT EAST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WILL ERODE RAPIDLY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM NOON TO 3 PM MDT. Monday night THROUGH Sunday A series of cold fronts will move south from montana across northern and central wyoming with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity especially over the mountains across the north spreading south through the week.
Temperatures have been cooler again today thanks to a weak MCV still churning right over Shelby County. otherwise a slight break from the high heat continues. with lingering cloud cover keeping temperatures a degree or two warmer.
Mid/upper level flattened ridge over the region buckles through the period in response to a short wave trough digging through the Mid-West. A surface cold frontal boundary will be nudged southeastward reaching as far as the Ohio River by late Monday night. Thicknesses Monday are not quite as high as today, and H850 temps appear slightly cooler on average. So afternoon highs may be just a tad cooler Monday afternoon. The dominant southern CONUS ridge is forecast to separate into two centers during the period, one over the Four Corners Region and the other over the western Atlantic.
540 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Updated Aviation Section Mainly clear and dry conditions with relatively light winds will continue through Monday morning as an upper level ridge of high pressure drifts east across the region. This will allow for some destabilization Monday afternoon and likely lead to the development of more widespread cumulus as well as a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily initiating over the higher terrain of central and SW MT.
Have also trended temps cooler a little faster than the previous forecast had. If skies where to remain clear overnight, which appears unlikely given the cirrus shield over western KS, lows Mon morning could be a few degrees cooler as well. Areas within the cloud cover have remained in the low 90s while along and south Interstate 70, highs up to the middle 90s combined with mid 70s dewpoints have resulted in heat indices from 100 to 110. Several previous runs of the high resolution models support this trend, especially given the weak convergence along the boundary. Incoming weak wave from the high plains of Colorado may develop additional widespread precip across areas generally south of Interstate 70 overnight. Precip gradually comes to an end north to south Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into the area.
Tonight and Monday A weak cold front was moving through the eastern part of Wisconsin this afternoon. Monday should be mostly sunny and around 3 degrees warmer than usual.
Upper heights actually rise on Monday as the ridge over the Four Corners appears to briefly nudge northward. The area of high pressure aloft over the southern plains retrogrades further west over the southwestern U. Westerly flow aloft across the northern tier of states turns northwest as a trough deepens over the Mississippi valley region downstream of the upper ridge amplifying over the west.
Remnant trough, outflow boundaries and some differential heating from leftover cloud debris could focus even better chances for storms across our northern zones by Monday afternoon, but this is contingent on overnight activity and as a result PoPs are being kept on the conservative side for now.
614 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The upper level ridge is expected to remain over the southwest part of the country through the period. The ridge is not very amplified which leads to a flat zonal flow from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest. This flow looks to be pretty quiet through Monday night but then a couple of short wave troughs are expected to come across the region.
With a significant dry layer in the low/mid levels, much of the rain will evaporate before reaching the surface. Lows will be a few degrees cooler in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front will begin to approach the area overnight and move through the region on Monday. A cold front will move through on Monday.
Sparse convection north of the upper low in otherwise very dry air has dissipated with most evening convection confined south and west of the area in cold pool aloft.
Elevated rain chances remain in the forecast over the next several days as the Gulf upper low pushes wwd, thanks to the continuation of the copious moisture already in place across the region. Unlike this time yesterday, rain chances stay a little elevated later in the week despite the low departing to our west. The combo of plentiful moisture, a lingering trof or weakness aloft and daytime heating should still lead to scattered mainly afternoon/early evening convection on into the weekend. A mainly light srly flow is expected to continue on the coastal waters with high pressure lingering over the ern Gulf/sern CONUS.
/issued 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): For the next 24 hours or so, weather over Deep South Texas will be dominated by mid-level high pressure centered roughly over New Mexico. Another sultry night in store tonight with an increase in high clouds ahead of an inverted mid-level trough (actually the first of 2) which will move into the western Gulf/NE Texas by early on Monday morning and progress into central TX by evening. First aforementioned wave moves inland well to our north, while second inverted mid-level trough or closed low approaches the coast late.
With high pressure overhead once we clear out the high clouds with this low humidity temperatures should be fairly comfortable.
Decent low and mid level theta-e ridge axis sets up in this area with early afternoon surface based CAPES from 1000 to 2000 J/kg and bulk shear from 35 to 45 knots with isolated thunderstorms already appearing on the radar shortly after noon. Low level convergence axis sets up in the afternoon across southeast Wyoming but it will be difficult for thunderstorm initiation with less low level moisture and warmer temperatures aloft acting as a capping inversion.
1049 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas. On Monday, high pressure slides east with return flow across the forecast area. The extended starts off with a slightly amplified zonal flow with a building west coast 500hpa ridge with a deepening east coast 500hpa trof. resulting in a drier but warmer flow.
The mid-level low will continue to drift southwest over the region for the next couple of days as it slowly rotates around a broad upper ridge. As a result, temperatures should only reach the lower 90s, which will keep heat index values below advisory criteria.
741 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Aviation A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening.
1158 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Aviation A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening.
High pressure and notably drier air continue to settle into the region and will do so through the upcoming day. Enjoy! The upper level ridge is expected to remain over the southwest part of the country through the period. The ridge is not very amplified which leads to a flat zonal flow from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest. This flow looks to be pretty quiet through Monday night but then a couple of short wave troughs are expected to come across the region.
855 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Heights will slowly rise as weak high pressure ridging builds across the forecast area. Expect clear skies and light winds overnight with temperatures right around normal for this time of year with lows in the lower 50s around Livingston to lower 60s elsewhere.
/Issued 353 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ The upper level ridge will continue to weaken and shift back towards the west this evening.
Latest short term guidance suggests mid level trough axis will be moving past south central MN by 7 pm. Upper level trough exits late tonight, with ridging and quiet weather. At the surface, high pressure in South Dakota will move southeast, and winds will be lightest in southwest Minnesota. Therefore it looks like it should be a rather pleasant day, with dew points mostly in the lower 60s and light winds gradually turning to the southwest in western MN, but remaining from the northwest in central and eastern MN and in west central Wisconsin.
914 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Hot and dry weather will prevail through mid-week in association with an upper level ridge extending eastward from the Lower Midwest into the Carolinas. An expansive (albeit small amplitude) ridge aloft spanning ~10 degrees of latitude (30-40 degrees) from coast to coast will dominate the upper level pattern through mid-week, confining the primary belt of westerlies above 40 degrees latitude. The stacked deep ridge axis will hold across NC, with a fairly dry column persisting, although models do indicate some moistening aloft just to our W and NW over the Appalachians. Lows Mon night should once again be in the low-mid 70s.
As the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the Central Great Basin area toward the middle of the week, northwest mid/upper flow will develop downstream across the central Conus. Uncertainty grows as we move into the weekend as the GFS is more aggressive building the mid/upper ridge back into the central Conus.
Lacking a push from the north and a hot and steamy airmass to the south a weak cold front has made little progress today.
Cold front extended from eastern Jo Daviess county to Kirksville, MO and continued to move eastward. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 80s behind the front to the lower 90s ahead of the front. With the passage of the cold front humidity levels will gradually lower to more tolerable levels, along with cooler temperatures. Monday: Weak high pressure will bring a much more comfortable day with lower humidity and cooler temperatures (compared to the past several days).
Also, some of the high res guidance tries to develop a line of scattered storms oriented parallel to the Ohio River before daybreak.
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 a cold front will move slowly south and east across the Great Lakes region late tonight and during the day Monday.
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Mid and upper level low is found drifting west across Florida while mid and upper ridging is situated across the Carolina's and central Appalachians. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will dominate. A deep layer ridge will continue over the region. Deep layer moisture will be the lowest/most marginal for Monday, which will translate to the lowest pops/coverage for afternoon convection.
/Issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ An upper level ridge will continue across the southern Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after midnight with greater moisture under the ridge.
Mid/upper level high dominating the south and southwest CONUS today has kept the majority of convection from developing today, though a few showers have managed to pop up across the offshore waters. Ridge will retrograde away from the region tonight as an inverted trough and disturbances tracks west across the northern Gulf of Mexico towards the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Monday owing to increased cloud cover and rain across the region.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable conditions with slightly warmer temperatures Monday. High pressure continues to provide dry and stable conditions to the area.
The greatest area of attention however turns to northeast MO into west central IL this evening along and ahead of the slowly advancing cold front, and then overnight as the front sags southward to the St. Several waves of multicell clusters are expected along and ahead of the slowly advancing cold front both this evening and overnight. Scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing at sunrise and continue along/ahead of the advancing cold front.
Areas within the cloud cover have remained in the low 90s while along and south Interstate 70, highs up to the middle 90s combined with mid 70s dewpoints have resulted in heat indices from 100 to 110. Several previous runs of the high resolution models support this trend, especially given the weak convergence along the boundary. Incoming weak wave from the high plains of Colorado may develop additional widespread precip across areas generally south of Interstate 70 overnight. Precip gradually comes to an end north to south Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into the area.
945 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. A mid and upper level low is found drifting west across Florida while mid and upper ridging is situated across the Carolina's and central Appalachians. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will dominate. A deep layer ridge will continue over the region. Deep layer moisture will be the lowest/most marginal for Monday, which will translate to the lowest pops/coverage for afternoon convection.
817 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure will expand across the Carolinas bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week.
Still in a ridge pattern through the forecast period so not a major threat for convective weather at any of the terminals on Monday.
Lower dew points and cooler air overspreading southern Wisconsin from northwest to southeast overnight.
An upper level ridge to the northwest has kept most of the region under strong subsidence during the last several days. As this ridge shifts slowly west and an upper low moves westward into the region. /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will continue to shift slowly west while a mid/upper level trough works its way in from the east. Convection associated with the trough has been persistent over Louisiana and East Texas the past several days and has been developing a little farther west each day. Locally heavy rainfall may be something to consider, particularly across the southeast where the highest moisture resides. Strong downburst winds could become an issue during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but the threat may be minimized by the high moisture environment.
Slight cooling is in the forecast for inland areas on Monday as high pressure over California weakens.
Storms will slowly make their way east and southeast tonight as the cold front slips into the area with the concern shifting mainly over to a flash flood threat overnight.
we may indeed get to the low forecast numbers. Elevated rain chances remain in the forecast over the next several days as the Gulf upper low pushes wwd, thanks to the continuation of the copious moisture already in place across the region. Unlike this time yesterday, rain chances stay a little elevated later in the week despite the low departing to our west. The combo of plentiful moisture, a lingering trof or weakness aloft and daytime heating should still lead to scattered mainly afternoon/early evening convection on into the weekend. A mainly light srly flow is expected to continue on the coastal waters with high pressure lingering over the ern Gulf/sern CONUS.
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into monday.
Skies are mostly cloudy while temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across extreme South Florida, resulting in mostly east winds of 10 knots or less on our marine district. With a pronounced mid and upper level low in the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico migrating slowly westward, additional drier air between 850 and 700 mb will move into our area overnight. With the aforementioned (1st paragraph) ridge lifting northward, mostly east winds will increase and become light to gentle with the highest winds on the Florida Straits.
445 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures. These conditions will persist over the region for most of the coming week as the ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the area.
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and will cross the region Monday night, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
The best opportunity will be with activity that developed in the High Plains and Panhandles moving east into the area. Could see some moist convection develop later this evening across this region with the onset of LLJ and a mid to upper trough axis moving through the plains. Temperatures will slowly begin to cool over the next several days with our region becoming influenced by northerly flow as the ridge continues to shift westward.
Water Vapor Imagery continues to show the upper ridge centered over Northern New Mexico slowly edging west. The upper ridge will continue to slowly retrograde west. An inverted trof over the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US will move west thru southern Texas on Tue/Wed under the ridge. As heights and H85 temps lower temps will be a little cooler. As the inverted trof moves thru southern TX.