Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure remains centered over Lower Michigan and Eastern Ontario. Surface pressure pattern still shows some weak lake aggregate troughing holding on across Upper Michigan southeastward into Lake Huron. relatively weak low pressure has pushed into the Upper Mississippi Valley with southerly flow taking shape ahead of it over the Western Great Lakes. Light low level flow across our CWA continues to steadily shift to the south as high pressure moves eastward and return flow takes over.
945 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Made a few minor temperature changes for the lower parts of East Texas for lows tonight and adjusted the cloud cover for much of the region. All eyes are still on the strong cold front and major Arctic air intrusion expected this weekend.
Strong high pressure aloft was centered just west of the southern California coast, and a broad area of low pressure aloft was west of southern Baja California.
/issued 256 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017/ (Tonight and Friday) The low cloud cover has persisted today and has thus held temperatures down, mostly in the 30s across the area. There is a chance that some freezing fog/mist cold develop tonight (similar to last night), but confidence is not high, so will just keep an eye on it.
640 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure exits tonight, but the deep freeze continues.
Measurable light snow was still falling ahead of the low in far northwest WI and the MN Arrowhead while further to the west all that remained was flurries as far west as Fosston and Detroit Lakes. More cold air is coming into the region behind this low and that means the beginning of another very cold period and lake effect snow.
We still have the coastal trough to contend with as well tonight. High pressure to the north will slip towards the east allowing more of an onshore flow to develop. Temperatures tonight are expected to be a little warmer than this morning, but not by much.
Models clearly indicate that freezing drizzle is the most likely weather type (as they did this morning, when all the reported precipitation was snow), so given this morning's events, have opted to include both freezing drizzle AND snow in the forecast for much of our forecast area late tonight into Friday morning.
this leads to readings just below freezing as opposed to the upper 20s for the far nern zones tonight.
Most likely area will be in the lower Pecos River Valley, including KROW.
425 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will persist across the southwestern US keeping Utah and Colorado in dry northwesterly flow.
614 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Strong high pressure to the north will continue to direct cold air into the region. Low pressure will move northeastward along a front off the Southeast Coast tonight.
The stronger winds will initially be delayed due to a weak low pressure system well off of the Cape, that will keep the local pressure gradient disturbed.
+1040mb Canadian high pressure near Lake Erie is slowly drifting off to the east. In its wake winds have veered from the north to the east in the lower Ohio Valley. Friday will probably be the "warmest" day of the next 7, as parts of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky stay at or just below the freezing mark, and areas in southern Kentucky reach the mid 30s.
Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate to IFR/LIFR for MAF/INK/HOB in the 04-08Z time frame, with VLIFR conditions in freezing fog possible by daybreak. PEQ/CNM/FST remain on the periphery of the low clouds/fog per high-res guidance, thus have left out mention at all but PEQ, where favorable location in the Pecos River Valley could yield MVFR fog after 09Z. /issued 138 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017/ Low clouds and freezing fog have mostly dissipated this afternoon and sunshine has returned across the area. Looking at another shot at fog and freezing fog Friday morning as moisture shoves back west across the area. Upper ridging to our west and consistent troughing over the eastern U.
412 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 Very cold upper trough persists across the eastern two-thirds of the CWA, as deep northwest flow continues across the northern Plains. Frontal boundary sits just west and south of the CWA borders with temperatures ranging from the single digits across northwest SD to the lower 20s across northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota. A second reinforcing cold front will then drop southward Friday afternoon and evening bringing the area very cold temperatures through the weekend.
Strong cold front passage expected just beyond the end of this forecast period.
Light freezing drizzle or snow may occur in western and southern Oklahoma early Friday.
651 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Aviation Several waves of low pressure will move across the Great Lakes over the next few days generating more lake effect snow showers and reinforcing the cold air already in place.
Light freezing drizzle or snow may occur in western and southern Oklahoma early Friday. Models clearly indicate that freezing drizzle is the most likely weather type (as they did this morning, when all the reported precipitation was snow), so given this morning's events, have opted to include both freezing drizzle AND snow in the forecast for much of our forecast area late tonight into Friday morning.
Breezy conditions will continue tonight especially near the east coast due to a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and an inverted trough offshore. Temperatures tonight will fall to just above freezing near the Altamaha river in se Ga to the low/mid 40s across ne Fl.
520 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Northwesterly flow with fast-moving embedded short wave troughs will remain in place through the end of the week. 5PVU pressure plots show a wave cresting the upper ridge positioned over the west coast. Models show this wave moving into the region tomorrow morning and spreading a chance for snow and possibly freezing drizzle to parts of northern and northeastern Missouri. Forecast soundings in this area show a deep saturated layer that is below freezing but not cold enough to introduce ice crystals. This likely lack of ice crystals may result in some freezing drizzle. But with the current suite of model data, it looks like freezing drizzle.
00 UTC surface analysis shows our region on the western edge of a ridge of high pressure across the Western Atlantic. With high pressure dominating at the lower levels as well, isolated convection will continue to be driven by the afternoon Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze fronts. Lows will be in the low 60s.
330 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will ensure dry weather into Wednesday. The latter half of the week will feature increased rain chances as a series of low pressure systems affect the region.
336 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build over the area through early Wednesday.
High pressure pushes off to the east today, while a fast moving low pressure system takes a track across northern Wisconsin this afternoon. A cold front trailing southwest from the low will drop into our western forecast area this evening, reaching the WI/IL border by 12z Wednesday.
High pressure slides to our east today. Expecting it to be mostly dry today however overrunning out ahead of a stationary/warm front will produce mid to upper level clouds across the region, especially in the south. Also, with cloud cover increasing tonight I pushed temps a bit warmer than guidance overnight across the southern half of the CWA. This flow will pump additional moisture while in the warm sector of next approaching cold front.
650 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure in the Great Lakes will move east today and return flow will set up in the Ohio Valley.
High pressure nosing down out of Canada will provide for weak cold and dry air advection today, and generally temperatures will be around climo. There is actually two distinct waves, embedded within zonal flow, and result in two weak low pressure centers that eventually consolidate across Nebraska. Profiles during that time are also just barely above melting, with temperatures in the lowest 5kft ranging between +0 and +2C.
A low pressure system will bring precipitation to much of the area today before moving east tonight.
417 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build down over the region from eastern Canada bringing fair but cool weather today into tonight. Our next chance of showers will come on Wednesday, as a warm front approaches the area. These clouds are expected to dissipate later this morning as a dry airmass associated with Canadian high pressure builds south toward the area. Lows tonight will range from near freezing east of I-81 to the lower and mid 40s over the Finger Lakes. On Wednesday, thermal advection forcing ahead of an advancing low-level warm front should bring some showers by afternoon, especially across our Finger Lakes, Lake Ontario plain, and southern Tug Hill areas in CNY.
419 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure in the Great Lakes will move east today and return flow will set up in the Ohio Valley.
High pressure will result in dry conditions through tonight. However, the pattern will become more active starting tomorrow as an area of low pressure moves along a frontal boundary.
536 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will ensure dry weather into Wednesday. The latter half of the week will feature increased rain chances as a series of low pressure systems affect the region.
Any stratus will burn off rapidly by mid morning Tuesday, with sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected. Increasing south winds this afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts, in response to lee troughing deepening in eastern Colorado.
359 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Low stratus has redeveloped in some areas southeast of the higher elevation of the Ozarks Plateau where low level moisture and upslope flow has developed with an e to se sfc winds. Light winds will veer to the south with a frontal trough moving into IA/KS late by late in the day.
358 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A low amplitude pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states the next few days. 5 inches and dewpoints in the lower 60s will combine with this shear axis to provide weak convective inhibition over the Midsouth.
155 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will weaken as a cold front moves into the area tonight. A weak cold front will be pushing into the Midlands Tuesday morning, and this front is expected to stall out over the southern CSRA Tuesday afternoon. This may help to keep more clouds north of the front, and also help in keeping temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 70s across that area. Along and south of the front, temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 80s under more sunshine. Becoming dry for Wednesday night as a weak upper ridge builds into the area.
For the overnight, little change to the forecast except to remove the mention of restrictive rain and add the high overcast which should persist to or just prior to daybreak.
For Wednesday, warmer, above-average temperatures are expected with ample sunshine and southerly winds. By Wednesday night, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front in Kansas. These thunderstorms may organize into a mesoscale convective complex that may affect northern Oklahoma and reinforce the cold front southward into the state.
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build down over the region from eastern Canada bringing fair but chilly weather tonight through Tuesday night. Our next chance of showers will come on Wednesday, as a warm front approaches the area. The low-level northwest flow will continue into tonight. Forecast area will be sandwiched between retreating high pressure over New England and a weak cold front approaching Tuesday night and Wednesday. As a result, have trimmed PoPs back a little, and restructured the highest to be after 18Z.
Additional showers will be possible across the Mid-South tonight, with the highest rain chances along and north of I-40.
A deep longwave trof was over the E Pac. This trof will cont E into the GtLakes today leaving zonal flow over the Cntrl Plns. A warm front extended SE thru Ern Neb into MO. and a trof extended SSW across Neb to CO. While this low heads E into the GtLakes today. the trof will weaken while the cool front become oriented along the SD/Neb border. This low is fcst to move to near MCK by 12Z/Wed.
High temperatures in the lowlands will range from the upper 80s to around 90, including El Paso.
120 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather tonight into Tuesday. Lows will drop into the 40s tonight with highs in the low to mid 70s tomorrow.
High pressure slides to our east today. Expecting it to be mostly dry today however overrunning out ahead of a stationary/warm front will produce mid to upper level clouds across the region, especially in the south. Also, with cloud cover increasing tonight I pushed temps a bit warmer than guidance overnight across the southern half of the CWA.
Weak ridging will buckle over the next 48 to 72 hours as a system digs into the Great Basin north of our area. A sneakily strong ridge will phase in from the west over the weekend with thickness values that support temperatures in the mid to upper 90s at Tucson International Airport.
204 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Canadian high pressure builds into the region through tonight.
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 An upper level trough will move across the Northern and Central Plains tonight. A weak cold front will also sweep thorugh the area overnight. By Tuesday evening, this upper trough will approach the area, providing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. A warm front across northern Kansas will remain nearly stationary. As the upper trough crosses the area on Wednesday, showers and a few thunderstorms remain likely across north central Nebraska. Current forecast highs remain near the previous, although the GFS model would support warmer highs in the lower and mid 70s across southwest Nebraska.
451 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A weak cold front across along the NC and SC border will slowly move southward today and stall over the southern Midlands through Wednesday. Wednesday night the front will weaken and return northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
611 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build down over the region from eastern Canada bringing fair but cool weather today into tonight. Our next chance of showers will come on Wednesday, as a warm front approaches the area. These clouds are expected to dissipate later this morning as a dry airmass associated with Canadian high pressure builds south toward the area. Lows tonight will range from near freezing east of I-81 to the lower and mid 40s over the Finger Lakes. On Wednesday, thermal advection forcing ahead of an advancing low-level warm front should bring some showers by afternoon, especially across our Finger Lakes, Lake Ontario plain, and southern Tug Hill areas in CNY.
Moist southwest flow and passage of short wave trough will bring showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms to the region today. By Wednesday afternoon the area will see isolated showers initiate off higher terrain as atmosphere destabilizes ahead of another upper low approaching the coast.
350 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast SD now, with cold front now through the CWA, just moving through Winner in the last hour. Across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, mainly near or above 6000 ft, temperatures could become cold enough late tonight and Wednesday morning for accumulating snowfall. Several inches or more is certainly possible across the highest elevations of the northern and central Black Hills, especially from Deerfield to O'Neil Pass to Terry Peak, if pcpn changes over early enough later tonight. Highs on Wednesday will be on the cool side, 40s and lower 50s with some upper 30s across the highest Black Hills.
333 AM PDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will bring stronger onshore flow today with cooling spreading inland.
At the surface, low pressure over the Dakotas will continue to drive eastward ahead of the upper trough with a trailing cold front sliding into our northern CWA as early as overnight. A lee cyclone will develop across northeast Colorado by late Tuesday and slide northeast along the remnant boundary, which then is forecast to become a warm front. Strong southwesterly low level flow will bring an increasing in moisture to the region with sfc dewpoints climbing back into the low 60s. The warm front will drift north through the day Wednesday leaving much of the forecast area in the warm sector.
Some cooler air aloft will push over the region on Tuesday providing a slightly more unstable airmass.
309 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 The upper levels will have a ridge extending up across the region from Mexico today while a broad trough moves onto the CA coast. This trough will pass well to the north but will flatten the ridge out.
156 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather tonight into Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return Tuesday Night into Wednesday as moisture returns ahead of an approaching cold front.
Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s across the southern zones, and possibly past the century mark out west, while temperatures further north will be in the lower to mid to 90s.
317 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 The HRRR and RAP models suggest an inverted trof (sfc-800mb) will set up across Wrn Neb this afternoon. Strong upper level ridging will continue across the region keeping conditions dry and fair.
419 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Upper low still in the vcnty currently over southern Lk Michigan and lower Michigan. With the potential for some sunshine, max temps should continue on an upward trend with readings in the low to mid 70s. Onshore flow will keep temps along Lk Superior slightly cooler in the mid to upper 60s.
Forecast has slightly warmer temperatures today and tonight in line with guidance, which looks good. On Wednesday the upper ridge will be centered over the Four Corners area with a weak north/northwesterly flow aloft. Overall the qpf generated by the models is fairly limited and confined primarily to the higher terrain with just isolated thunderstorms over the adjacent plains.
246 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Upper level system moves through by midweek, while a low pressure system grazes the mountains today.
At this time, the highest PoPs will be across north Florida and southeast Alabama, but trends have been towards at least some light rain spreading into south Georgia late in the day. Expect highs to range from the lower to middle 80s across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, to the middle and upper 80s further north and east.
The low clouds and fog should be gone by between 12 and 13Z this morning. A few showers and storms may affect portions of the area later today, as an ill defined trough of low pressure aloft moves across the region. Tonights lows will also be cooler than normal, with minimum readings in the lower 60s on tap. The long wave pattern will feature persistent ridging west of the Rockies, while northern stream energy, along with the interaction with Harvey, results in bouts of troughing east of the Mississippi River. Highs will average in the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the low to mid 60s.
616 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Upper level system moves through by midweek, while a low pressure system grazes the mountains today.
Tropical Storm Harvey located near Texas coast is currently interacting with an upper-level trough extending from the Great Lakes southward to the Tennessee Valley. A mid-level cloud deck is expected to remain in place through the afternoon with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.
457 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 High pressure will slowly slide south of the region later today into Wednesday.
630 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 High pressure remains over the region through Wednesday.
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Latest satellite imagery shows the mid-level low currently over nrn IL this afternoon with the low progged to shift over the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. Weak instability/forcing associated with the low combined with daytime heating continues to produce widely scattered showers over portions of Upper Michigan, however this activity will diminish as the sun sets.
Forecast becomes more of a challenge by this weekend due to an upper level low forecast to track south from the central Plains into central and or west Texas.
406 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Upper ridge will remain in place over the srn Great Basin another day with weak N-NW upper flow across CO.
449 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 A large high pressure system continue to persist across the Northeast and the Canadian Maritimes.
The main area of concern would be late Wednesday into Wednesday night when an upper level wave moves across the Great Lakes and drives a weak cold front through the region.
Surface wise, A weak western Atlantic ridge is aligned across are area, resulting in east to southeast winds of less than 10 knots on our marine district. A deepening and strengthening western Atlantic ridge extending across our region will slowly lift northward over the next several days.
Wednesday should prove to be another mild day as high pressure shifts ever so slightly to the east.
452 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Dry conditions and fair weather continue through midweek as high pressure remains over the Northeast.
With upper low centered over Michigan, lapse rates will become steep enough to support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Once the Great Lakes upper low shifts further away, mostly sunny and dry conditions will be on tap for Wednesday with high temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.
We have also removed the mention of MVFR cigs at SAT and SSF as the latest data shows some significant drying in the low-levels.
Upper level low pressure is exiting the area to the east, but may still support a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder this afternoon, from Freeport to Princeton.
Ridge of high pressure will keep temperatures in the 90s an mainly dry conditions in place today and tomorrow. Entrained mid level monsoonal moisture will try to generate more widespread cloud cover and a few high based thunderstorms over area mountains during the afternoon hours, possibly drifting into the lower elevations in the evening.
/Issued 438 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017/ Much drier air has invaded the OK and TX Panhandles today in the wake of the most recent cold frontal passage.
Upper level ridge will be located across northern Arizona today and shift eastward toward the Four Corners region by Wednesday.
338 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 An upper level low will bring chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today.
A trough will trail from this low across NE FL Today, extending back to Harvey. Drier air will advect South across SE GA Today, with moisture riding East along the trough providing for scattered showers and storms over NE FL. The trough will lift North Tonight to near the GA/FL line, but with lack of diurnal heating limited chances for showers. Wednesday: In the mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridge will remain across the western Atlantic, with the ridge axis extending into southern Florida. A wake trough will extend southwestward over the western Atlantic, and then westward across north central Florida and all the way west to TS Harvey.
1129 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 At 2 pm, isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the higher terrain with most of the activity occurring across the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains. Temperatures are noticeably cooler compared to this time yesterday, with readings in the 70s to lower 80s. Given the northerly deep layer flow, storms will move south and will remain along the higher terrain. Not much change in the mid lvl pattern and thus weather tomorrow will be similar to todays weather, with most, if not all, of the isolated thunder remaining over the higher terrain. One thing that will be different is temps will warm up once again, and expect max temps to be about 4-7 degrees warmer than todays max temps.