Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A cold front will result in rain and snow shower chances today before high pressure returns dry weather for Sunday. A few snow showers in upslope flow in the ridges are also possible, though the flow is not optimal for any significant accumulation. There remains a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the ridges with the saturated layer below the snow growth region. Building high pressure should bring a clearing trend for Sunday.
Upstream, high pressure is across the Central Plains and an upper trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest. This system will continue to move south and east while high pressure over the plains builds into the northern gulf coast. The ridge will linger over the area through early Sunday. Late in the weekend the ridge will move east of the area while the trough over the Pacific NW moves across the Rockies.
Mostly clear skies expected tonight as drier and cooler air works into the area behind an exiting short wave trof.
An U/L trough will move off the eastern seaboard today over the western Atlantic tonight and Sunday. A strong U/L disturbance will dig over the inter-mountain west through Sunday which will induce downstream ridging through the plains which will translate quickly east and will extend from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes by late Sunday. At the surface, a weak a cold front will push across the Florida peninsula today with winds backing to the northwest. High pressure will build over the forecast area in the wake of the front with slightly drier cooler air advecting across the region. with highs in the mid 70s north, upper 70s central, and near 80 to the lower 80s south.
Temperatures ranged from the middle 20s to the lower 30s across the region. Ground temperatures are quite warm so major travel problems isn't expected through the morning hours, though we can't rule out a slick spot or two on bridges and overpasses. Tonight, low temperatures should be about 10-15 degrees warmer as warm surface flow takes over. A strong negatively tilted upper level trough will push north and eastward from the Rockies through Sunday and into Sunday night. As surface pressure gradient tightens, southerly winds will also increase and become quite gusty at times, especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
Weak cold front is moving through inland SE GA early this morning with a few light showers along it. Temps will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the 70s compared to the lower 80s the past couple of days. High clouds could linger well into the aftn before upper level trough passes east of the area this evening. Quite cooler over inland areas where some upper 30s inland over SE GA anticipated with lower to mid 40s elsewhere.
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 Aviation Light rain showers will linger this evening before high pressure builds in to bring fair weather through the weekend.
The main highlights include warmer above normal temperatures today compared to yesterday and dry conditions. The large scale pattern will feature a broad 500 hPa ridge across the Central CONUS and a 500 hPa trough that's currently in the Pacific offshore waters that will be moving onshore onto the Western CONUS today. The mid-level trough amplifies overnight and moves into the Four Corners by Sunday morning, meanwhile the ridge will shift eastward and stretch from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Mississippi Valley. A lee side trough near the Central High Plains will sharpen overnight as the aforementioned trough aloft moves into the Four Corners. The dry column in place, as seen from the 11/26 00Z sounding, will persist today with the mid-level ridge overhead and light downsloping westerly winds at low-levels.
although light NE winds and the lowering MVFR cigs may limit the extent of FG development except at ELD. although the low cigs should be slow to lift.
Drier air will win out tonight as high pressure builds in at the surface. Models continue to advertise a shift in the overall pattern across the nation with long wave troughing over the western CONUS and broad west-southwest flow across the east. Model's generally good agreement with the mid and upper level flow suggest a long wave trough will develop, extending from a low over the Upper Midwest back towards the desert southwest. This should leave the central and eastern portions of the country open to a couple of significant systems as they eject out of the base of the trough over the southwest and to the northeast across the remainder of the nation. We will initially remain quiet with high pressure in place at the surface and aloft Sunday and Sunday night.
Clouds will be slow to clear on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Clouds will eventually decrease Saturday night into Sunday as the high moves southeast of the area.
The cloud forecast will play right into the low temp forecast. Saturday through Sunday will be dry and seasonable with high pressure in control.
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Quiet weather will continue for the part of the short term with upper ridging across the Plains, in advance of the next trough that is just beginning to move onshore on the west coast. This trough eventually crosses the Rockies and ejects onto the northern Plains on Sunday, with a substantial increase in moisture and lift across the region.
347 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A pressure ridge approaching from the west today will extend through the forecast area tonight and Sunday.
1257 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016 Longwave upper ridging moves over the area tonight then starts to back to the southwest Saturday ahead of a low pressure system moving ashore along the west coast. High temperatures Saturday about 4F to 7F warmer per 850mb temperatures with upper 50s to low 60s.
The area currently sits under a broad H5/H7 ridge axis cresting over the Central Plains. a WSW surface flow with temps widely ranging from the low 20s up to the mid 30s. region set for brief transition as the ridge complex set to shift east thru day/evening hours. giving way to an upper level trough.
Warmer than normal temperatures will be in store for Kansas this weekend as upper level ridging develops over the central plains. Even though deeper adiabatic mixing will be hindered by low clouds, tightening surface pressure gradient from surface cyclone should give way to strong gusty south winds(possible wind advisory) on Sunday.
248 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016 Current surface map shows weak trof across the western Dakotas. Upper level ridge located across the northern plains with mid/high clouds across the forecast area. Another warm day across the area as low level thermal ridge. Upper ridge breaks down tonight with strong trof approaches the Rockies. The upper trof moves into the northern plains Sunday. As upper low closes off, best chance of precipitation will be along eastern portion of forecast area Sunday night.
455 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 Progressive longwave trough moving east of the region early this morning with cooler/drier air sweeping across north and central Georgia. Temps range from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s south with northerly winds periodically gusting to 20 MPH. High pressure will gradually move east of the state tonight shifting northerly winds around to more of a easterly, and eventually a southerly direction by late Sunday.
1017 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016 High pressure will be over western and central Wyoming tonight with some high clouds. Saturday morning southwest flow aloft will move in ahead of a Pacific low pressure trough with windy conditions forming along and near the east slopes of the mountains and through the wind corridor across Sweetwater.
This will merge with, and amplify the eastern CONUS northern stream trough. At the surface, high pressure and northerly winds will build in behind this morning's cold front.
Low to mid lvl trough will continue to move southeast/away from north Georgia overnight as northerly winds increase, especially around ATL which is more exposed than other surrounding airfields.
and upper ridge remains west of the area. Sunday night through Saturday Weather will become unsettled after Sunday as upper level trough approaches the area.
Rather seasonable late November temperature regime, readings again topping out in the lower 40s. Outside of managing any pesky near term cloud trends, benign weather conditions to finish off the holiday weekend as the region settles within low level southerly flow beneath building upper ridging.
1005 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge building through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains. Near the sfc, southwest bl flow bringing warmer air back into the region. Even warmer temps expected on Saturday with thermal ridge passing overhead, allowing temps to rise well into the 50s and even some lower 60s south/east of the Blkhls. Upper ridge shifts east of the region on Sunday as a large upper trof moves across the western US.
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS An upper level trough crossing from the southwest will bring a few to several inches snow to the northern mountains and west slopes Saturday night into Sunday. The system will also deliver strong winds initially across the high terrain Saturday night, then to lower elevations as well on Sunday. In the wake of the upper level trough, two more storm systems will cross from the northwest with colder temperatures and a chance for more accumulating snow across central and western areas.
So highs will be warmer, in the low 50s far east to the upper 50s over central MO. Tonight despite clear skies, winds will remain up enough to keep temps above freezing most locations, in the 30s.
Have adjusted min temps a bit warmer in our eastern valleys on this account. Even colder conditions below freezing are expected again by Sunday morning, as winds become light and good radiational cooling should allow temperatures to drop to near dewpoints (mid to upper 20s). By Sunday afternoon, a strong upper ridge develops over the the Tennessee Valley and southeastern U. This should allow temperatures to rebound during the day into the lower to mid 60s.
Most of this activity should be out of the area by sunrise this morning, but there may be a few lingering showers this morning in continued southerly isentropic upslope flow over the top of the cooler surface air mass generally from the southern Big Country to I-10. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal with highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight, the large west coast trough will continue moving east toward the area, and induce surface pressure falls to our north and northwest. Along with persistent low clouds, this added moisture will help keep temperatures relatively warm overnight with lows only dropping into the low to mid 50s.
310 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 500 mb ridge is moving east across the north central CONUS. A strong upper low approaching from the southwest will bring rain into the area Sunday afternoon, with rain chances increasing steadily from the southwest starting just before noon. However, it can be seen on BUFKIT model soundings that the lower levels will be too cool for surface based convection, so will not mention severe storms, as per the SPC day 2 outlook for this area.
Behind the upper trough axis, low cloud deck is descending into the area this morning. we will have a cold night with lows below freezing across the entire area.
SDF/LEX would come a few hours later, perhaps too late to have much affect on warming with the lower sun angle and earlier sunset this time of year. High pressure will move across the region from the west, with the center roughly directly over or just east of the area Saturday evening. The high then will continue shifting eastward Sunday. Winds will start to pick up from the south during the day on the back side of this high. Combining these winds with ridging aloft will mean a much warmer day compared with today. Lows that morning mostly will be in the 20s with the high pressure keeping us relatively calm.
IFR to LIFR fog and freezing fog will be the norm at most area TAF sites overnight into mid-morning Saturday. Temps also largely in line with patchy freezing fog likely for northern portions of the area. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for OKZ054>071. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020.
High pressure over the middle Mississippi valley and Ohio valleys will move to the middle Atlantic states by late Sunday.
This was mostly in regards to the updated models, showing some slight changes in timing and strength of the low pressure moving onshore. Given the southerly flow, the lowest conditions will continue to be around the Mount Shasta area and on the south side of other high terrain. Ceilings will lower to MVFR Saturday from west to east as the front moves inland, mountain obscuration will increase, and freezing levels will lower.
336 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Areas of freezing fog are occurring in parts of northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. especially bridges over water. A Freezing Fog advisory is up for northwest Arkansas and east-central and northeast Oklahoma. The system will track into the northern Plains and drive a cold front across the region. Initially the low-level moisture will be limited and come up to our west.
1015 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016 Upper level high pressure will keep skies clear, winds light and temperatures seasonal for the next 24 hours. It still appears that the highest potential for accumulating snow in addition to gusty winds should be noted over the central and especially the southwest mountains(i.
Surface winds will veer and increase out of the southwest in response to the ridge axis shifting east which will coincide in a quick decoupling by late morning and low clouds scouring out. A long wave trough is still expected to be carved out over the continental U. This trough will initially push onto the West Coast later tonight with the first short wave trough ejecting from it Sunday. This trough will be fairly stout and will deepen after it crosses the Colorado Front Range late Sunday, closing off over the Northern Plains.
/issued 129 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016/ In the upper levels have ridge to the east with a trough well to the west. The upper trough will move ashore the West Coast on Saturday and quickly progress eastward. The trough will cross the Rockies Sunday as another trough moves down across the Great Basin. but by tonight the wind will start coming back around to the south as new leeside trough develops. Guadalupe Pass had windy conditions through the morning but did allow the High Wind Warning to expire. Sunday looks windy again for the Guadalupes with a strong W/SW wind ahead of the upper trough and will issue a High Wind Watch.
So we can expect another chilly day and cold night before warmer weather on Sunday.
An upper level ridge will move into the southern and central plains today and tonight. Then a strong upper level trough will move out of the Rockies into the high plains on Sunday.
Still watching an impressive lee surface cyclone eject from northeast CO and into the Northern Plains on Sunday.
955 PM PST Fri Nov 25 2016 An incoming low pressure system will bring rain to the valley early Saturday morning and snow to the Sierra by late morning.
Increased sky cover over the northern 2/3rds of the CWA for today and into this evening given the influx of cirrus cresting the H500 ridge over the western High Plains on IR imagery.
Temperatures will trend milder, climbing a little above normal today, as low-level flow turns more southerly and increases on the back side of the surface ridging. Upper level ridge over the MS river valley at sunrise Sunday, will shift east over IL by 18Z/noon on Sunday and into the Ohio river valley by 6 pm Sunday.
A weak cold front will push southward down the north/central portion of Florida during the afternoon. Dry weather will generally prevail through mid week, behind the frontal passage, as a ridge of high pressure draws near. This ridge will allow for the flow to become east/southeast and breezy at times with a tightening pressure gradient, along with increasing low- level moisture.
At the surface, a cold front was dissipating along the coast and winds behind the front from the north to northeast across our CWA. The upper pattern will transition quickly to a ridge today and tonight then a trough will move into the southwest turning the flow over Texas to southwesterly Sunday. A short wave trough will move through the pattern Sunday bringing a chance for showers to our CWA.
The 500mb ridge will continue to build across the Northern and Central Plains States through Saturday. Warmed temperatures slightly Saturday, 1-4F warmer than what occurred today.
Ridge off the southeast Atlantic coast will actually strengthen a bit today. With the lack of showers and storms yesterday, and a stronger ridge, will go with very low to no pops across the area today. Overall, the next few days should remain mild with highs into the upper 80s to around 90, with lows continuing to reside in the lower 70s.
a pretty quiet weather pattern persisting across our region this morning as a ridge of high pressure continues to extend south across the lower Missouri Valley. low pressure responsible for high rainfall totals across Louisiana yesterday will continue tracking north today. Fcst models suggest 850 temps a degree or two cooler than yesterday which combined with northeasterly low-level flow from high pressure passing to our north. increased cloud cover along with continued northeasterly flow will allow high temps to only reach the lower to middle 80s on Monday.
A flat ridge remains over the forecast area this evening with a westerly flow aloft. High level moisture ahead of a cold front and trough is created scattered to broken high cirrus over much of the area.
I'm really beginning to think this upper level Atlantic ridge is going to squash PoPs more than we've been thinking.
showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region, with the eastern mountains, Palmer Divide and Raton Ridge the favored areas so far. high pressure will start to shift eastward out of the Great Basin with broad northwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. Mozley Flat upper ridge across the area Mon/Tue with main monsoon moisture plume suppressed well south of Colorado. Broad upper trough then takes shape over the western U. Upper trough then lifts into the high plains Fri, pushing a strong cold front through the region by Fri evening. Max temps will trend upward through mid-week and remain above average until cold frontal passage Fri.
Subtropical ridge axis remains north of the area today, maintaining a slightly elevated low level E/SE flow over central Florida. In addition cooler temps, around -8C at 500MB, from weak mid level S/W advancing northwest over Florida should lead to more normal coverage of showers and storms today along a diffuse east coast sea breeze. Strong mid level ridge will extend from the Carolinas offshore with 596-597 DM height northeast of the area.
00 UTC surface analysis shows our region in between an area of low pressure across Eastern Texas and an area of high pressure off the East Coast. The tri-state region will remain under the influence of deep layer ridging from the Bermuda High to the east through the short term. This will keep moisture associated with the low pressure system currently over Louisiana at bay, allowing for a typical summertime pattern to continue across the region.
These isolated thunderstorms are expected to dissipate around dawn as the low level jet weakens. There will not be much change in the highs with mid to upper 80s across the area this afternoon.
An additional band of showers has developed ahead of a weak cold front and in a confluent zone from Austin west into the Hill Country. The 00Z NAM12 is the farthest west tonight with the low and possible nocturnal heavy rainfall event closer to the Rio Grande, and much drier over the I-35 corridor. Mesoscale influences likely to play a large role on where exactly evolution of the low/shear axis today and tonight.
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure remains off east coast, keeping front nearly stationary over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure remains entrenched to our east. while a cold front located near the Ohio and Indiana border is very slowly drifting westward this morning. as dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will still make it feel very sticky. Persistent ridge of high pressure keeping the more active weather to our west though still maintaining an oppressive heat/humidity combo over the CWA.
A ridge of high pressure, over the Great Basin today, will shift eastward on Monday as a weak upper level low pressure system nudges into the region.
146 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the weekend as a weakening cold front slowly approaches. Opted to limit PoPs to the low chance range, keeping scattered showers/thunderstorms through mid-morning. Moisture will continue to be fed northward from the Gulf of Mexico, re-enforcing the high dewpoints and PWATs. The best lift, and subsequently better rain chances, will remain well west of our area, closer to the upper-level trough axis. Slightly cooler low- and mid-level temperatures and increased cloud cover will help limit Max temperatures today to near normal, but the run of above average Min temperatures will continue this morning and Monday morning. The surface boundary is progged to eventually dissipate by Monday as weak ridging builds over the region.
The inverted trough that has been over the forecast area today has triggered an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Min temperatures this morning upstream in this airmass were in the low -mid 50s, and the bias corrections to the models support this same temperature range. Sunday the trough shifts even farther east and a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. The area of high pressure will continue to move further east into the central great lakes continuing the flow of warmer and more humid area into the region.
A very weak ridge of high pressure will act as a boundary for showers and thunderstorms to focus on today. A lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for much of the overnight period, until the aforementioned high pressure ridge acts as an inverted trough at the surface and shifts slightly northwest.
Today will be warmer than the past few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected as high pressure expands eastward and the region sits under zonal flow aloft. A weak cold front will also move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours shifting winds out of the west and northwest. Best chances for convection will be over the higher terrain.
Temperatures should be right around normal with readings similar to a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Drier conditions are expected again today as upper level ridging continues to build slowly east across the Four Corners Region and into the Western High Plains. High temperatures will be up around 90F again this afternoon with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains. Dry conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week as upper level ridging continues from the central Rockies into the central High Plains.
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Heaviest rains are continuing across the lower Acadiana area this morning with showers also noted elsewhere in southern Louisiana and southeast Texas.
315 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Main challenge will be subtle chance for isolated convection late this afternoon across the higher terrain of central Kansas near KRSL and KGBD. Some mid-level moistening has occurred just northwest of the forecast area early this morning which is progged to develop south into a portion of central and southwest Kansas today within a weak thermal trof most evident around 700 mb. The remnants from the low pressure and tropical rainfall which has drenched Louisiana the past couple days will migrate northward from the Arklatex region across the Ozarks later today and tonight before shearing to the east-northeast ahead of the emerging upper trof from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during Monday.