Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
103 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WITH A LARGE SCALE TROF EVENTUALLY AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING. WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW.
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AS A WEAK UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
257 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015 High pressure currently centered over northern Missouri will drift eastward across the area this evening, leading to clear skies and light winds. As the high shifts further east, a light southerly return flow will develop overnight. Thanks to radiational cooling of the dry airmass, low temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than numeric guidance suggests.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND.
FIRST SEVERE WEATHER DAY OF THE SEASON EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE LOWER THAN 20% RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEEDED FOR ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HALF OF THAT IN THE LOWEST 1 OR 2 KM.
THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15- 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OKC TO LBB TO EL PASO. 12Z SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE POSITION RIDGE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS WILL FAVOR LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REACH THE 50S NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS (SOUTHERN INTERIOR).
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH TONIGHT.
DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW WHILE MODEST SOUTH WINDS HELPING KEEP LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT ACROSS SW TEXAS TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR THUNDER ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE SERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP THAT MENTION AS WELL. BETTER INDICATIONS FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH FROM THE ERN PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
849 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015 A quiet weather scene expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours across central Illinois as high pressure shifts off to our east by Wednesday morning.
A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015 High pressure currently centered over northern Missouri will drift eastward across the area this evening, leading to clear skies and light winds. As the high shifts further east, a light southerly return flow will develop overnight. Thanks to radiational cooling of the dry airmass, low temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than numeric guidance suggests.
839 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
907 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015 NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON.
255 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND.
614 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
With the warmer GFS MOS guidance for highs due to its recent solid performance during good heating days. This will put most spots in the low and mid 70s for highs. We will be a couple/few degrees cooler tomorrow as there is a subtle airmass/thickness change behind today's front.
a closed upper low was moving east across northern Mexico. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure spanned the middle MO and middle MS river valleys. This along with an increasing pressure gradient is expected to keep overnight lows up into the lower and mid 50s. Have continued to go above guidance with highs anticipating good mixing pushing highs into the lower and mid 80s.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE BITTERROOTS AND MISSION MOUNTAINS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION, THE INITIALLY WET ROADS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SLUSHY AND THEN FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING ON LOST TRAIL PASS THIS EVENING.
207 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.
BUT WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS WILL BE PUSHED INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR STORMS HINGES ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SINCE BOTH ARE NEEDED TO HAVE ANY SHOT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AND QUICKLY BLOOM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE THE KEY TO DETERMINING THE ORIGINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SUSPECT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SPEED (NOT DIRECTIONAL) SHEAR.
AS THE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.
A cold front will move through region today and begin a period of cooling temperatures and windy conditions. The high wind warning for the Northern Rockies will be continued as well as the Red Flag Warning for potions of the eastern zones. A Pacific cold front will push east across the area beginning after 15z. Near record warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty west to southwest winds are expected this afternoon associated with a cold front.
623 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015 A weak dry cold front will pass from northwest to southeast across central IL early this morning, with breezy southwest winds shifting to northwest. Little cold air is resident behind the front with a large scale ridge and warm air mass building into the northern Plains and Midwest.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 25 45 26 / 10 30 40 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 24 40 26 / 50 50 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 23 40 25 / 20 30 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 21 38 23 / 10 30 40 20 NC.
1050 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO LOCALLY MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATER IN THE NIGHT WILL COMMENCE A TOUCH OF COOLING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE MIXING OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT.
KED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 25 45 26 / 10 30 40 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 24 40 26 / 50 50 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 23 40 25 / 20 30 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 21 38 23 / 10 30 40 20 NC.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
Dry and warmer weather mid-week, then a pattern change possible by the end of the week. Water vapor imagery shows another batch of energy rotating into the low over central California from the northeast, and this will keep a chance for isolated showers today over the south end of the forecast area.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL KEEP ITS STRANGLEHOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND.
By tonight, the high will have already exited off toward the east, leaving this forecast area open for southerly flow to return through at least the first half of Tuesday. This wind shift will allow for a non-diurnal temperature trend for tonight through early tomorrow morning with the lows likely happening earlier in the overnight period versus right around sunrise.
MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND A BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT/ WE WILL SEE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ON TUESDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS MAXING OUT AROUND 17C DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHEAST.
402 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015 ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS SPLIT OVER N AMERICA WITH A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A CUT-OFF LOW WAS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE OVER CA/NV. A +TILT TROF EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE CA/NV LOW. THIS TROF WILL SINK S OF THE FCST AREA TODAY AND SHOULD SHOVE THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM PROGRESSIVELY S. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE E AND S OF THE REGION TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE/WAA DEVELOPING. THE NEXT NRN STREAM LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TUE.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS GOING FOR THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR AS THOSE ZONES HAVE RECEIVED ENOUGH TO AFFECT TRAVEL. ON THE FLIP SIDE HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING FOR UT ZONE 29 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR OTHER SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO ZONES. THIS IS ALL THE RESULT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. OR EVEN MIX WITH TO RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN THE LOWEST SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUE WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL IGNORE THE COOLER GFS/NAM GUIDANCE AND USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
417 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015 (Today and tonight) An upper disturbance traversing the area in the southwest flow aloft this morning will continue the chance of light freezing rain and sleet over the forecast area today. With high temperatures remaining at or below freezing over the entire area, any falling precipitation will remain frozen. Highs today will be in the mid 20s over the Big Country with upper 20s over the central CWA and around the freezing mark along the interstate 10 corridor. 15 Temperatures will finally warm above freezing on Tuesday.
12Z SOUNDING SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO 70S AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH ANY DECENT INSOLATION. WITH MID 60S SCTRL GA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE TOWARD MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS INCREASES RAPIDLY TO THE N/NE 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT AS HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE AGAIN WED/THU AS LOW PRESSURE FROM ERN GOMEX TRACKS ACRS THE WATERS AND INTO THE WRN ATLC.
1006 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE MIXING AND WARMER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY WHEN LOW STRATUS MOVES INTO THE NORTH AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
Otherwise, ridge will remain over region today with winds becoming light and variable.
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DANGEROUS THIS MORNING AS THE RESULT OF OVERNIGHT FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN IS THE GREATEST CONCERN. WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS HIGH AS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GREATER THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BARELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
Light radar returns indicating freezing drizzle affecting all TX terminals except for PEQ early this morning. In addition, a series of light freezing rain/sleet and/or snow showers look to intermittently be affecting HOB and CNM. /ISSUED 403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/ Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at the surface.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT.
1001 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. SURFACE FRONT BACK DOORING THROUGH THE REGION AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND AS OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE. WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY 6 AM. ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MRNG LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE DAY DRY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY.
CHECKING THE RECORD BOOK, THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 23 AT DODGE CITY IS A VERY COLD +5F, SO THAT OBVIOUSLY WON'T BE TOUCHED.
317 AM PST MON FEB 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MANY AREAS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
This advancing high pressure resulted in light northeasterly winds and steady cold air advection early this morning. Temperatures plunged into the single digits near the Kansas/Nebraska border with readings in the low teens over east central Kansas where mid-level cloud cover limited the amount of radiational cooling. The combination of persistent cold air advection this morning and some mid-level clouds should limit high temperatures today to the low/mid 20s. Winds will remain out of the southwest overnight and actually increase into Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient increases some over the area from a low pressure system passing to the northeast of the forecast area. This southwesterly flow will keep overnight temperatures warmer than this morning, with lows in the middle teens.
BUT THINK THAT OVERALL THE HIGH WILL BE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE TEENS.
ICING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE LOWEST 3KFT JUST OFF THE SURFACE DURING TAKEOFF AND LANDING FOR ALL TERMINALS. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY ALONG A GEORGETOWN TO BOERNE TO COMSTOCK LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION HERE. WE STILL EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 25 45 26 / 10 30 40 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 24 40 26 / 50 50 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 23 40 25 / 20 30 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 21 38 23 / 10 30 40 20 VA.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK AND DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO KANSAS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM THE DAKOTAS.
BUT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
SOME DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM VENICE NORTH TO CEDAR KEY THROUGH AROUND 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR RIDES OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S MOST LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO THE WEST OF UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL BEFORE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
955 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ERODE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BRING MILDER AIR IN. THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE TREND OF LATE WILL PERSIST AS WARMER AIR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS MIDWEEK. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE SUNNY WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HELPING TO BRING THE WARMER AIR IN. SOME UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
224 AM PST MON FEB 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY ALONG A GEORGETOWN TO BOERNE TO COMSTOCK LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND WE HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION HERE. WE STILL EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
607 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN ADDITION TO A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PLAINS AS SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. FLURRIES AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG PERSIST THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS LARAMIE AND KIMBALL COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT SNOW AND COLD WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES AND THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015 Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at the surface.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY THEMSELVES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S N TO AROUND FREEZING S. EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OUR W APPROACHES THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AND LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES.
940 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO TURN FLOW WEAKLY ONSHORE TUESDAY EVENING.
CONUS MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON WRN CONUS TROUGH RATHER THEN RECENT CENTRAL/ERN AXIS. WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS HOWEVER AND MORE NON-DENDRITIC SNOW WITH THE MAX LIFT BELOW -12C. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.