Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
305 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper low centered over southeast Montana and northern Wyoming will move into the Northern Plains tonight. As this occurs, a cold front will move east into western Minnesota by 12Z Sunday. Localized heavy rain will be a threat given the high moisture and multiple storms tracking over the same area with storm motions south/southwest. There could be a narrow area of instability that develops Sunday afternoon just ahead of the cold front over far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
111 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Upper low is now centered over southern Wyoming, with leading edge of forcing (associated with jet streak) over western Nebraska/Kansas. Subsidence/deep dry air is building eastward around the southern part of upper low into our western CWA. At the surface a cold front is already moving towards the Colorado border and should be through our CWA by sunrise. Today-Sunday: As upper low continues to shift towards the northern plains large scale subsides as a result of ridging in the west will spread eastward.
344 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 High pressure over southeast Canada builds across the area through Sunday night.
The trough moves east into the upper Great Lakes Sun night into Mon and then moves into the lower Great Lakes Mon night. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF are showing much better agreement at 96 hours with both having a closed 500 mb low east of Lake Superior in Ontario 12z Tue and ridging into the Rockies and southern plains. By 12z Wed, the trough is over the lower Great Lakes and the ridge is into the Plains. The 500 mb ridge then builds into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu into Fri.
155 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday.
On the back side of this upper level low in northwest Wyoming there is significant potential vorticity anomaly and jet energy diving south. This potential vorticity anomaly should help kick this upper level low east during the course of the day. We did lower temperatures a bit compared to the previous forecast since the ground temperatures will be a bit cooler from the precip. In fact, Laramie and Rawlins may drop below freezing with rest of the area ranging from 35 to 40.
252 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A few rain and snow showers hanging on late this afternoon in wrap-around flow as the main upper low continues to lift northeast into the North Dakota. Cloud cover will be the big factor with potential freezing temperatures overnight with our higher valleys the biggest concern. Will hold off on an highlights for freezing temps at this time with expectation that any run to or slightly below freezing will be very late and short-lived.
There is higher wind than that aloft and it is possible this could mix down to the higher terrain southwest. For now will go with advisory for winds 30 to 45 mph and keep the high wind warnings in our toolbox until we see the whites of its eyes. Showers taper off west early Sunday as the cyclone pulls away and becomes an open wave, but the wind will be left behind. Generally cooler and windy to very windy Sunday, but with increasing sunshine from the west. After that an H5 ridge builds over the area and much of the coming work week is dry and mild with lows in the 40s and highs 65 to 75.
349 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Offshore low pressure will weaken tonight.
254 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large swath of showers and thunderstorms has developed this afternoon stretching from TX into central KS and into the Dakotas ahead of a deep upper-level trough over the Intermountain West. Showers and a few storms will continue into Sunday morning until the main cold front swings through during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over WY and CO. Upper level low was over southwest WY with short waves moving around the system. However an upper jet was digging on the west side of CO trough and will form another trough over the desert southwest. CO trough forecast to move across the FA Sat night. 150+m height falls forecast with upper low. Upper low forecast to open up once low moves past the FA. Upper level jets remain on the east and west sides of the trough for most of the period. However upper jet will dig on the west side of the trough Sun afternoon through Mon. The period begins with upper level ridging building into the western third of the CONUS as a deep upper low continues to spin near the upper Great Lakes.
A closed low was present over southwestern Wyoming with a deep trough of low pressure extending well south to the US/Mexican border. East of this feature, high pressure was anchored over the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi valleys with a ridge of high pressure extending north into Nunavut Canada. East of the ridge, a trough of low pressure was present across eastern Canada into New England.
The next main feature to watch, early in the work week, remains a cold front that is forecast to push into our area.
444 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to build east into the area through Sunday.
138 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A weak cold front will push south across the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region tonight, and will remain across the area on Sunday.
Large upper low over Wyoming/Colorado will continue to move slowly east this afternoon into this evening before lifting northeast into the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Models still depicting a large piece of this low remaining behind, retrograding and closing off somewhere near the baja tomorrow. As the northern part of the upper low moves through the Northern Plains, a cold front will push south through Oklahoma into Texas during the day on Sunday. This will bring cooler and drier air into the area, which will limit the rain/thunder to Red River valley by Sunday night. Drier and cooler air will then overspread the area, resulting in acouple of pleasant and more fall-like days early in the week.
Another uptick in convective potential will accompany the cold front which will likely not pass until just beyond this fcst period.
1234 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Low pressure center is moving into southwest ND with frontal boundary pushing into central SD. Threat remains for a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds, and cannot rule out an isolated weak tornado somewhere across eastern SD into west central MN given the high shear environment. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon along a cold front moving over our eastern counties.
The upper low that has been affecting the area for the past several days, continues to pivot up into eastern Montana. Through the remainder of the extended, ridging will work into the the northern Rockies which will bring a warming trend and plenty of sunshine.
Focus will then shift to the winds across central/north central SD later tonight on the back side of the low pressure.
336 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016 with an upper trough extending southward across the central and southern rockies. Some light rain and snow showers continue to fall across the high country. A strong upper ridge is going to build over the western U.
322 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A deep upper level low located near the eastern Wyoming/Montana boarder has been lifting northeast today. With this, a wave rounding the trough axis has lifted into central Kansas causing scattered thunderstorms and showers to continue this afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler than this past week, topping out in the lower 70s. Sunday night high pressure will build into the region as the cold front pushes south across Texas. A dry and cooler period is expected across the area with high pressure in control through much of the upcoming week.
1137 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016 Upper level trough of low pressure moving across Colorado is producing isolated to numerous rain and snow showers in the high country. As upper low moves northeast today and tonight. and do not expect it to be any warmer tonight. The elongated upper trough stretched north to south across the state will push east Sunday with dry northerly flow left in its wake. There may be a few light showers in the high mountains in the early morning hours, but these should dissipate quickly. High surface pressure will keep cool northeasterly flow into the state to produce highs a few degrees cooler than today under mostly clear skies.
223 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and becoming centered over the northeastern states on Sunday.
Temperatures quickly rising into the low to mid 90's at this hour with highs expected in the mid to upper 90's late this afternoon. Cumulus clouds are developing across east-central counties due to increased moisture moving in from the east due to a compact upper low located over southwest Georgia.
126 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions this weekend. Highs today will range between the low 70s to low 80s, with Sunday a few degrees warmer.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide dry weather tonight and Sunday across Central Indiana.
a high amplitude upper level ridge was located across the Mississippi River valley while a long wave trough was situated over the Great Basin region with an associated closed low over southwestern Wyoming. high pressure was located across the southeastern US while a quasi-stationary frontal boundary was located from the Mid-Atlantic states across the Ohio Valley into the Central Plains states. A second cold front was located along the Front Range of the Rockies. As the long wave trough continues to move towards the Northern Plains today. it will begin to push the cold front along the Rockies eastward. it looks like the better dynamics as well as the higher PW values will be located north and west of our CWA. As the trough lifts out into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Also expect showers and stratiform precip to spread from west to east overnight as upper low progresses across the state, reaching southern Manitoba as an open trough by 18Z Sun. Breezy to windy northwest winds will continue through the day as the low pushes away. A longwave upper level ridge will build over the Plains during the week leading to mostly dry weather along with a warming trend.
Morning lows will range from the lower to mid 60s in the coolest valleys to near 70 in the Louisville metro center.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight even as low to mid level moisture increases across deep south Texas ahead of the 500mb trough across the western United States. /issued 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the southeast United States will move eastward today as the 500mb trough/low across the western U. Moisture will pool across northwest TX tonight into Sunday along a weak cold front draped across that part of the state.
After a bit of a lull in activity this evening, a developing upper low centered over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico late tonight and associated lower-level circulation near the Big Bend will help to draw moisture back northwestward while also increasing lift locally. Attention will also turn northward to a cold front that will be sweeping southward and will move through the South Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover and rain will make it difficult for highs to climb out of the 60s, though morning lows will not be that much cooler (except northwest where it may drop into the 50s again). However, with lift diminshing through the night as the parent upper level low retrogrades westward across Sonora, precipitation will begin to taper off.
The latest satellite was showing little in the way of clouds as dry high pressure builds into the region today.
An area of low pressure and frontal boundary over extreme southern Illinois should begin to shift off to our east and south today but cyclonic flow around the departing wave and a deepening 500 mb trof tracking east across the Midwest will keep showers going into at least the middle of the afternoon for areas east of Interstate 55. The low will continue to move away from our area tonight with clearing skies and chilly temperatures. High pressure will shift from the central Plains east to just west of our area by 12z Friday which should result in the coolest temperatures across the west and northwest, closest to the ridge axis. We look for lows to drop into the mid 30s northwest with patchy frost, to the lower 40s southeast. Deep upper trough will be swinging into the eastern U.
Much cooler air will spread into the area tonight.
Our region is upstream of a digging upper level trough moving east across the Ozarks during the day on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 60s in the NW Panhandles to near 70 in the SE TX Panhandle.
658 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air will move into the area for the start of the weekend. An area of low pressure will move across the region today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of the area. As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into the region and winds will pick up. A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into Friday.
500 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Few weather concerns over the next 36 hours as a shallow ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Clouds will be scarce in the dry airmass below the ridge which will help temperatures recover to within a few degrees of normal today with highs climbing above normal Friday afternoon. However, strong radiational cooling tonight will cause lows to dip close to freezing again in the lower valleys. High pressure will continue to amplify going into the weekend, so benign weather will persist.
High pressure will build over the area through the rest of the week.
1232 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016 A cold front will push SE through the state tonight through Thu afternoon. (ISSUED 606 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016 ) A cold front will push SE through the state tonight through Thu afternoon. Upper level ridge over the SERN US will start to move eastward as a trof moves into the midsection of the country.
This strong zonal flow aloft will induce lee side trofing resulting in gusty winds across the western foothills today through tonight.
Dry conditions will prevail across western Kansas through Thursday night as a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moves eastward across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period. Although a northwest flow aloft will strengthen across the high plains today, a fairly dry air mass will help void precip chances across the region through Thursday night. Considering the drier and cooler air mass filtering southward into western Kansas behind the advancing cold front, look for highs only up into the 60s(F) this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure moves slowly eastward across the Western High Plains during the period.
313 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Upper level ridge that had been dominating the local weather will is quickly eroding as a trough located over the central and high plains moves east across the mid Mississippi Valley. A cold front associated with this longwave trough is currently located along a Midland TX to Indianapolis IN line. For this reason, really not feeling optimistic on widespread coverage of convection as the cold front moves across the CWA, which is fairly typical this time of year.
441 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 04Z surface analysis has the main cold front located roughly along a Presidio to San Angelo to Wichita Falls line. , mid to upper flow becoming more parallel with surface front, location of the leading pre-frontal trough), the main cold front will likely come through between the mid to late morning hours up north and be off the coast by the late afternoon.
354 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken today. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
High pressure will bring quiet weather and dry conditions to northern and central Nevada through the weekend. A ridge is currently entrenched over the Great Basin and will slowly drift eastward today and Friday. A warming trend will continue with highs in the low to mid 60's today increasing to upper 60's and low 70's on Friday. The lows will also warm a little to the low 30's Friday morning.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The cold front has begun progressing through Texas this morning, currently about half way through the state. Winds today will already shift to the northeast as weak prefrontal troughing sets up along the coast. Shower activity will hold temperatures down some from the past several days, but will still reach the lower 90s. The cold front will finally pass through the region later this evening, with a final round of showers during passage. This will keep the threat for showers continuing for the lower valley through much of the day Friday.
The 8 pm regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary front from the Mid Atlantic through TX, and a weak ridge from central GA through the western Atlantic. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a ridge over much of the Southeast, but a trough digging across the Central Plains will replace this ridge in a few days, along with much cooler temperatures for our region. Low temperatures will continue well above average in the lower to mid 60s.
Models show isolated showers developing today over ne Fl near inverted trough and moving inland. Dry Cold frontal passage still on track to push through the SE GA/NE FL region through the day with NW winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph at times during the afternoon. The delayed arrival of colder air until Fri Night will still allow for highs to reach into the lower 80s SE GA and mid to possible upper 80s across NE FL. The cooler and drier airmass spilling into the region will allow for clear skies and temps to fall into the mid/upper 40s inland areas and 50s along the coast.
The warm and dry trend continues today as the ridge will remain under a weak ridge aloft. This will keep moist westerly flow associated an upper level low pressure system just to our north through Friday for mainly high clouds. The higher terrain in Baker County stands the best chance to see showers this afternoon and Friday afternoon though it's only a slight chance.
Cooler air will spread into the area Thursday night with high temperatures Friday afternoon only reaching the lower 50s. Decent rain event beginning to unfold for at least the southeast half (maybe more?) of the forecast area over the next 12 to 18 hours as low pressure develops and tracks along the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday. Rain will begin to exit NW areas slowly through the day with likely to categorical pops warranted SE as low will be slow to depart as upper level trough undergoes a negative tilt. Drier and cooler air will reside across the region through much of the period as high pressure slowly drifts through the area.
Forecast challenges will focus mainly on the presence and persistence of freezing fog along the Yellowstone River Valley this morning. Felt it was best to proceed with a freezing fog advisory this morning for Dawson and Richland counties. The synoptic weather pattern basically oscillates from weak dirty ridging to zonal through the remainder of the short term forecast period.
220 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 High pressure will extend across the region today. A surface cold front will approach from the west tonight, crossing the area on Friday and Friday night. Much cooler high pressure will build in behind the front over the weekend. No change in the airmass tomorrow, though the upper ridge does begin to weaken between a deepening trough over the central US and disturbance north of the Bahamas. Clouds will begin to increase across the west late Thursday night as the aforementioned, and by then full-latitude, trough reaches the Tenn Valley. Moisture profiles ahead (and even with) the trough and associated front as pretty anemic, so most of the area will remain cloud free.
Expect north to northeast winds to pick up through 20/08Z at most area terminals as surface pressure rises increase behind a cold front.
Dry weather with mild daytime highs will continue today and Friday as strong high pressure and light winds persist over northern California. Temperatures will cool off closer to normal by this weekend as the high pressure ridge weakens.
An Upper level trough over Minnesota and the eastern central Plains digs as it moves into Wisconsin tonight with the downstream jet moving off. As the 700mb trough axis moves east downward motion dominates south central this afternoon and southeast this evening. Widespread frost with some freezing temperatures south central, with lesser frost potential closer to Lake Michigan where north winds will stay up.
Models then show the upper level ridge axis currently over the Great Basin translating eastward into the central Rockys for Friday.
627 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken today. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
620 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air will move into the area for the start of the weekend. An area of low pressure will move across the region today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of the area. As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into the region and winds will pick up. A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into Friday.
and this trend should continue overnight and possibly fill in some as a cold front begins to enter the region after 09Z from N TX/SE OK.
Surface wise, an elongated, western Atlantic ridge extends across the gulf coastal region with a broad area of low pressure well east of the central Bahamian chain. A western Atlantic ridge extending into the gulf coast region will slowly weaken as a broad area of low pressure migrates northwest to north well east of the Bahamas over the next couple of days.
317 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Post frontal showers and storms have moved generally east of the highway 65 corridor early this morning. Some drizzle or light shower activity can't be ruled out later this morning and into the afternoon, especially near the Highway 54 corridor as a vort lobe from the passing short wave moves overhead.
429 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will bring widespread rain to the region from late today into Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. The warm front will continue to lift north today as a midlevel trough continues to dig in the Mississippi Valley. As low pressure rides up the Ohio Valley later today along the advancing cold front, showers and some thunderstorms will advance across the area mainly after 18Z. The frontal precipitation will drift eastward Friday morning with additional showers developing behind the boundary in the strong cold air advection and passage of the upper level trough axis. Much colder weather will follow for the weekend as the upper trough develops over the Eastern CONUS.
1150 PM MDT WED OCT 19 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE Back door front has pushed through at least the lower gaps of the central mt chain and bringing a period of moderate east to se winds into the mid Rio Grande Valley including KABQ and KSAF. Breezy east canyon winds will occur overnight in the Albuquerque metro area as the back door cold front pushes westward. Overnight lows will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler, with freezing to near freezing numbers favoring areas north of the I-40 corridor. Cooler temperatures will continue Thursday but a warming trend Friday into the weekend will rebound temperatures to above normal readings.