Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over the Eastern Pacific with a low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Additionally, a trough of low pressure is beginning to cut off just off of the Southern California Coast. These two forecast models are suggesting mostly dry weather through the first part of the week as the previously mentioned low pressure system continues to push through the Gulf of Alaska passing well north of Colorado Monday night.
Most locations in the lower deserts are now above freezing. Cold temperatures across the region this morning with many desert locations at or below freezing. This will mostly affect the outlying areas, but most of the valley should see temperatures at or below freezing. Temperatures Monday night will also be rather chilly, but readings are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer.
Temperatures and dewpoints continuing to fall off rather quickly behind the cold front now east of our area. The forecast should be dry for a couple days to start out the extended with a zonal flow and surface ridging in place.
The 00Z/18th upper air analysis depicted a deep longwave upper trough, extending from Hudson Bay through the Central/Southwestern CONUS. Return southerly flow on Monday will allow temperatures to rise close to freezing with full sunshine.
we are still seeing a few bands of "lake effect" snow flurries and snow showers along the Ozark Plateau coming off the relative warmer nearby lakes. Southerly winds and the back side of high pressure will start the slow moderation of temperatures on Monday. Highs will try to reach the freezing mark.
Arctic air will continue a gradual eastward exit out of the ND, as a surface warm front begins nosing into the west and advecting warmer air into the state.
417 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 After a few flurries this evening, high pressure should maintain dry weather until the approach and passage of a late week cold front. Scattered flurries should persist through the evening under broad upper troughing and cold advection.
248 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure southeast of the region, with west-southwest winds bringing warmer air into the area. Westerly winds are a bit breezy at times over portions of northeast WY to northwest SD on the back side of the high.
245 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Yesterday's Arctic cold front brrrrought the coldest airmass to the region this fall, w/overnight lows in the teens as far south as KE38, and single digits over the northern tier of counties. Current sfc obs show the coldest air dammed up against the western mtns, w/most locations to the east still subfreezing at 19Z. WV imagery shows zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico ahead of an upper trough digging down the west coast. Unfortunately, this will hinder warming Monday afternoon, despite return flow resuming as sfc ridging to the east sinks south. Temps continue warming under zonal flow aloft as the west coast trough closes, separates from the main flow, and sets up shop off the Baja coast.
Low temperatures over these areas should remain well above freezing so precipitation should be in the form of rain only. appears that most of the area north of I10 corridor will fall to freezing or below tonight.
Tonight will be the colder than last night in most locations as sfc anticyclone slowly moves east across the mid-Mississippi Valley overnight tonight. Leaned toward cooler MAV guidance tonight due to the aforementioned favorable conditions. Gosselin Daybreak on Monday will feature an expansive/elongated Arctic high pressure system centered through the CWA and bitterly cold temperatures. This high will slowly weaken and shift east/southeast throughout the day with weak low level WAA commencing, especially across central and northeast MO.
112 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Broad upper troughing exists across the forecast area through the period.
Precipitation has finally ended, with the cold front now located well southeast of the region. Temperatures are currently in the lower 20s to lower 30s across the region, with skies beginning to clear from NW to SE. The lowest wind chill readings will be late tonight and early Monday where values may dip below zero north of interstate 40.
252 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Strong arctic high pressure centered along the MO/IA border will move very slowly southeast over the next couple of days. The CONUS scale longwave trof will slowly weaken/flatten.
With peak heating to occur in the next hour or two, it is unlikely that northern portions of the Hill Country will see temps rise above the freezing mark, with areas generally along HWY 90 seeing above freezing temperature for 3-5 hours before cratering again this evening.
Drops of 30-36 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 6-8 hours have been observed over most plateau sites with reports of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow over the past 3-4 hours. Still expect only the higher elevations to see any snow and ice accumulations in the plateau. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 27 44 30 / 90 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 26 40 27 / 100 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 26 41 27 / 90 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 25 41 25 / 90 10 10 0 TN.
These should be primarily minimal impact light snow showers that may last into/thru the morning hours, particularly for our eastern counties, as the last bit of energy waves on thru with the back/last vestiges of the lower trop moist band/cloud deck. Start day temps will be well below freezing and flash freezing of puddled rainwater on area roadways will be the primary early morning Impact as folks head out to church.
High pressure will continue to move off to the southeast, with southwesterly winds bringing in milder air. A positively tilted mid-level trough stretching from the upper Great Lakes to southern Plains early this morning will de-amplify as it accelerates northeast into an increasingly confluent flow regime, with building upstream heights over the north-central states.
1255 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Above normal temperatures are expected to occur today given warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon, bringing showers to the area.
/issued 253 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Upper trough that brought the very cold wx to the area pushing east as secondary wave moves down across the Rockies. Part of this trough will retrograde back to the west forming a cut off low west of Baja by Monday.
cold Canadian high pressure will continue settling over the region today which will result in the coldest day of the winter season so far with many locations east of the KC metro struggling to reach to double digits for high temps. this cold snap will be fairly short lived as southerly flow starts to return tomorrow which should allow the highs to creep back into the middle 20s Monday afternoon.
Model sounding across these areas showed the low level cold advection with temp profile below 0C from 500 to 2200 feet.
1235 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 A cold front moves through the region this afternoon. High pressure returns for the early to the mid week.
1141 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Arctic high pressure has settled over the region, and will continue to dominate our weather scene through early this week. /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ A sprawling arctic high pressure area now dominates over half the United States early this morning, including all of Texas save the lower Rio Grande Valley. Some relaxation should occur by afternoon, however, as the high center slips southward, allowing speeds to diminish to a range of 10 to 15 mph toward sunset.
303 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure will return to the region for the first half of the week.
1159 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 A cold, raw day is on tap as artic air mass has settled across the region with temperatures still below freezing at some locations as we approach the noon hour. /issued 334 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Arctic cold front is now just exiting extreme se cwa, quickly replacing record high aftn temps for the date at svrl locations, with bitterly cold air. Temps to warm to near seasonal averages mid week, just in time for a weaker cold front to quickly move thru, and perhaps give a few showers to southern portions of the area. Deeper closed trough setting up over TX for Christmas holiday weekend, with rain chances increasing.
/issued 1159 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ A cold, raw day is on tap as arctic air mass has settled across the region with temperatures still below freezing at some locations as we approach the noon hour.
Expect cold overnight low temperatures with single digits to teens across much of the high country.
300 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Broad upper troughing exists across the forecast area through the period. Moderating temperatures are expected through the work week ahead of a cooler weekend.
Light flow out of the westerly quadrant will continue to promote light cold advection into tonight while SE Michigan's position along the northern flank of the high poses a decoupling quandary, critical for a chill forecast.
354 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 (Today and Tonight) Broad ridging aloft extends over the southern CONUS early this morning as an upper high centered over southeast Texas intensifies. With the airmass over the forecast area continuing to dry in response to the building high pressure area over East Texas, hot and dry conditions will continue. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower 70s.
402 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough will cross the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday. An associated surface cold front will settle south through VA Tuesday and through NC Tuesday night.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through midweek and cool slightly late in the week as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast.
The southwest flow aloft ahead of a broad low pressure trough over western Canada will continue to bring breezy westerly winds to much of North Central and Southwest Montana through this evening. A weak and dry Canadian cold front also moved through North Central Montana today, and it should push southeast through the rest of the area overnight. Along the Hi-Line, closer to the slow- moving upper level low pressure center in Alberta, a few thunderstorms may linger overnight. Also, with the passage of the upper trough, westerly winds will become somewhat breezy again on Monday, but not nearly as strong as those today. High pressure aloft will then spread into the area Monday night into Tuesday for less wind and continued clear skies.
619 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Weak high pressure will remain north of the area today. Low pressure will track south of the region tonight through Tuesday. However, the weather disturbance, which will be moving very slowly, will weaken and push south later today into tonight as upper level ridging presses in from the Great Lakes. An upper level trof will cross the region Tuesday with partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers.
408 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2016 An upper level trough will slowly track through the North County Monday bringing with it an increase in the chances for precipitation. Scattered showers will taper off in the evening as high pressure starts to build in.
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough will cross the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday. An associated surface cold front will settle south through VA Tuesday and through NC Tuesday night.
452 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2016 Another weak short wave exiting Colorado, this time helping to nudge the upper ridge over the southern U. Eventually the eastward shift of the ridge will bring moisture back in from the southwest, but that will not be coming into the central mountains until tonight at earliest. Forecast temps look pretty good, we may need to go slightly warmer today if the clouds are slow to develop this afternoon. Models have the upper ridge centered over Colorado and Utah on Tuesday and Tuesday night with weak westerly flow aloft.
Temps will be a bit cooler today. another hot pre-frontal day with low humidity ahead of an approaching upper trough. Latest data from the NCAR ensembles suggest some vorticity spokes may preceed the trough and result in some strong thunderstorms, both in the east and western sections of the CWA.
335 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Weak high pressure near Lake Michigan kept a light easterly breeze across the area during the overnight hours. Early morning temperatures ranged from the low 60s in Freeport, Illinois, to the low 70s at Keokuk, Iowa. Have stayed close to consensus guidance for afternoon highs, with clouds expected to temper highs in the low to mid 80s. Areas along and north of Interstate 80 still appear favored for the higher rainfall amounts, which could be locally heavy as precipitable water values increase to around two inches.
625 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Bermuda high pressure will maintain humid conditions across the area through midweek, sparking scattered thunderstorms.
Wrn Atlc high pressure extending across central FL will become temporarily located across Nrn FL over the next 24H. Weak steering flow throughout the lower and middle troposphere suggests outside of some nocturnal/morning showers over the Atlantic and along the Treasure Coast, best chances for precipitation will continue to be just inland from the coast and across the interior.
Upper level ridging noses into the area by midweek. A weak upper level trough will continue to move east tonight. Upper level ridge dominates Tuesday with dry weather. The upper ridge axis and hottest air remains out to our west.
326 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Bermuda high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions across the area through midweek, along with scattered thunderstorms.
Aloft - a ridge across northern Fl shifts northward slightly overnight as an inverted trough traverses southern FL. At the surface atlantic high pressure ridging in across central Fl eases into north-central FL early MON. Broad high pressure ridges across central FL tonight then begins to ease north early MON.
Upper ridging is just strong enough to keep most shower activity at bay.
Currently seeing an increasing Cu field along this trough with some showers and storms going up as well. Best deep layer shear is further north and expect the highest areal coverage of storms to be across ND. Surface boundary associated with the low moves through the CWA during the afternoon/evening, with good convergence along the front.
619 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Bermuda high pressure will maintain humid conditions across the area through midweek, sparking scattered thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, the GFS/ECMWF depict an inverted trough and/or a weak upper low to meander across the area into Wed morning.
This along with the mean 1000-700mb flow from the southwest and daytime heating in the lower 90s should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the entire CWA.
643 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough scoots across southern portions of the area Today. Upper level ridging noses into the area by midweek.
629 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes region continues moving east and should reach the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough and a moist air mass will bring increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. Overnight low temperatures remain on track in the lower to middle 70s. An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes region to the Tennessee Valley will gradually move eastward. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend into the area with lee-side troughing. The upper trough axis over the east coast will push offshore on Tuesday with upper flow becoming northwesterly. An upper ridge will extend across the Plains promoting continued northwesterly flow into the forecast area.
442 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 The forecast area will remain situated in southerly flow ahead of a mid level trough in the Dakotas today. HOwever, the main period of showers and thunderstorms will arrive with the surface reflection low and inverted trough overnight.
Warm front that arcs across our northeast may continue to be focus of isolated to widely scattered cells, however, as piecemealed energy ejected out from primary MCS interacts with boundary. As the synoptic scale ridge builds to our west, we'll see with time, the thermal field back and lose its difluence over time today over the PAH FA, as we warm sector. As a result, we'll see some positive vorticity advection later today diving se overtop the ridge and across our northern/eastern counties, markedly upping pops there to mid or high chance, tapering to slight chance southward and westward across the remainder of the FA closer to the higher heights over SEMO/Ozarks.
A few spots will be a few degrees cooler than last night due to the rainfall that occurred late this afternoon and evening. So will have the lowest fog/cigs there. 08 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
332 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather today into tonight.
650 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough will cross the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday. An associated surface cold front will settle south through VA Tuesday and through NC Tuesday night.
344 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Another hot day is expected this afternoon as heights increase around 1-2 dam under the mid level ridge.
550 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper trough will drift slowly east across the state today bringing isolated to scattered. in the wake of the 500 mb trough that will be working its way off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
334 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Ridge ridge ridge. The sub tropical ridge stretching across the country will be centered today and Tuesday along the Texas Gulf Coast. By late in the week an upper trough is expected to move across the West Coast but will not be strong enough to displace the ridge.
A flat upper ridge will move across western Washington this morning, supporting a rain-free day with warmer afternoon temperatures. A closed upper low will move across northwest Washington on Tuesday, bringing clouds, showers and a few thunderstorms.
High pressure will move into the eastern Lakes Monday night. An upper trough will move eastward along the Canadian border with a weak cold front moving through Minnesota Monday night. Some convective clusters will develop ahead of the upper trough/front with the remnants moving towards the Upper Lakes by Tuesday morning.
Thunderstorm activity will wane for the early part of the week as a couple weak low pressure areas move north of the state.
526 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes region continues moving east and should reach the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough and a moist air mass will bring increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. Overnight low temperatures remain on track in the lower to middle 70s. An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes region to the Tennessee Valley will gradually move eastward. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend into the area with lee-side troughing. As the upper level trough continues to shift eastward an associated surface boundary will move into the region, possibly stalling around the FA. An upper level trough will shift off the East Coast mid-week with ridging returning to the region.
WV imagery indicates the upper ridge quickly shifting to the Gulf Coast states, aided in its eastward shift perhaps by a decaying MCV over NE Sonora.
Synoptic Setup: A large High Pressure heat dome exists over the Four Corners Region with a ridge running up north and east through Wyoming and the Dakotas. A large trough of cooler pacific Air is stretched from southern British Columbia through Alberta and Manitoba. Farther west a closed low resides off the southern coast of British Columbia. This afternoon through early Tuesday morning: Stable cool air and and a ridge developing to the west will lead to dry conditions and clear skies. Meanwhile the closed low will move on shore over Washington and progress eastward.
354 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 An upper level trough scoots across southern portions of the area Today. Upper level ridging noses into the area by midweek.
/issued 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ Different day but same challenges this cycle as forecast area remains in unstable atmosphere under weak/flat mid level ridging. Dominant player will continue to be broad expansive mid/upper level ridge of high pressure that stretches across most of the southern Conus. An upper trough is progged to move into the western states as far east as the 4 Corners by Thur and Fri.
Also not much forcing due to mid level ridge building into the area. The high resolution guidance is showing/catching the complicated and subtle wind and pressure fields very well today. They show some kind of boundary hanging around through tonight or because of where the convection developing throwing out an outflow boundary and or reinforcing the cold front.
250 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 First calendar day of August appears to be starting off rather quiet as high pressure remains anchored over the Great lakes region. high pressure slips a bit more east as a mid-level low moves east through southern Canada along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border by early this evening. Push of 850mb moisture transport ahead of the low and warm front expected to fuel scattered/elevated thunderstorms across the Dakotas into MN/IA through this afternoon. but there is some indication among the deterministic models of storms firing again in the afternoon mainly south of I-94 ahead of the warm front from northern IA into northern Illinois.
241 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2016 Current surface map shows cold front across northern Wyoming into western North Dakota. Weak high pressure settles in over the area Monday night.
257 AM PDT MON AUG 1 2016 The persistent ridge of high pressure will slowly weaken early this week and then will be replaced by a trough of low pressure by the end of the week. Ridge remains over the desert southwest with the axis stretched out to well west of Point Conception. Heights have begun to lower as the ridge weakens and this will continue over the next few days allowing for temperatures to back down from some rather hot values of the past few days.
/Issued 353 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ High pressure will continue to build over the Southern Plains today. Highs in the lower 90s are forecast for far Northwest Arkansas. Afternoon conditions may allow for a few isolated diurnal pulse type thunderstorms over the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. hot & humid underneath high pressure.
Mid-level high pressure and associated subsidence will maintain VFR conditions across the area for the next 24 hours.
700 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Persistent low-amplitude upper level troughing continues to hold over the Great Lakes region early this morning. with afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
613 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure remains to our north, while a series of weak lows pass by to our south.
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 A weak area of low pressure extended from central Pennsylvania to central Ohio. The low will drift east to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday afternoon.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough axis from northeast Texas to the Brush Country. This trough will translate west to north Texas down to the western Hill Country later today and be quasi-stationary into Tuesday. The mid to upper level ridge over Louisiana and southeast Texas will build southwest into the region today through Tuesday.
The persistent upper weakness over the lower Mississippi river valley will move eastward today. This will bring a higher chance of rain as the upper trof combines with plentiful deep layer moisture and daytime heating to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs today will be in the low 90s and lows tonight will fall into the mid 70s inland to around 80 along the coast.