Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cloud line has developed over the Lower Keys, which was to be expected. High pressure settling into the southeastern U. Temperatures this afternoon have reached into the mid 80s with dew points holding onto the lower 70s. As the aforementioned high pressure continues to settle in across the southeast U.
123 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (Issued 123 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022) Tonight through Friday night: A line of showers has developed along the cold front over far se WI but will quickly exit early this afternoon. This may keep temps from falling much below freezing, resulting in a Frost Advisory versus a Freeze Warning.
100 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Shower chances return Friday with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. A cold front will encroach upon the northwestern zones by the late overnight hours. Daytime highs will be much cooler in the 50s as cold air moves in behind the front. The forecast period will initiate with building high pressure and cold air aloft with the arrival of a continental polar airmass behind the aforementioned cold front.
By late tomorrow the next area of high pressure will begin to gradually shift southward across the Great Plains (reaching the Ark-La-Tex later this weekend) to usher in northerly to northeasterly surface flow at or just below 10 knots areawide. Afternoon maximum temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the upper 80s (with lower 90s possible in isolated areas). By tomorrow night, minimum temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the lower 60s.
244 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Much cooler and drier air continues to stream into the region behind this morning's cold front. The forcing for light precipitation will decrease overnight, but some flurries can't be ruled out tomorrow morning when temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler as cold high pressure centers over the region, with highs generally in the upper 40s. A widespread freeze looks likely Friday night with mostly clear skies and light winds thanks to the high pressure overhead. Lows around 30 are likely everywhere except the core of the Twin Cities metro where the urban heat island effect will keep temperatures several degrees warmer.
155 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Forecast Highlights: -A cold front is moving through the area today with a much cooler air mass working in behind it.
The main short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow will pass well northeast of Colorado, but the cold front associated with it will back southwest across Colorado tonight. Cloud cover and a cooler air behind the cold front will result in a chilly day with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado.
ahead of a weak and dissipating cold front. Otherwise dry conditions are expected under weak upper level high pressure into Friday.
Towards the surface, a cold front is expected to move through the area tonight increasing northeast winds and bringing in much colder air to western Kansas.
1127 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Ridging will keep seasonal to slightly above normal temps and mainly clear skies around another day. A weak cold front dips out of Canada today, and will slide southwestward across east of the Divide areas through the afternoon. Diurnal heating will act to scatter out the low clouds by mid-day, but given time of year, the sun will have a hard time warming things up once the clouds scatter out. Highs east of the Divide in those Basin locations will be 10 to 12 degrees cooler than today as a result. Precipitation will be minimal with the front, and have kept PoPs on the lower end as a result. Given slightly cooler air with the front, snow would be possible generally above 9000 feet.
322 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front will move through the area overnight into Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring gusty winds out of the north and cooler temperatures for the weekend.
This dry autumn weather pattern will continue on Friday with slightly warmer morning temperatures compared to yesterday. /CRJ/ The weekend will see a nice push of cool, fall air as a decent cold front makes it ways through the area. This is tied to a short wave trough that will push across the Ohio Valley on Friday and ultimately carve out a larger scale trough over the eastern CONUS through the weekend. For mid/lat week, support is increasing for a more substantial trough getting carved out across the eastern CONUS. Finally, a strong cold front looks to push through and likely to push in the coldest air of the fall season.
101 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Cold front approaches the area later today.
247 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Clouds increase this afternoon through the overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front moves through tomorrow morning with scattered rain showers and breezy northwest winds. Cooler and breezier weather sticks around through the weekend. Late tonight into tomorrow morning, a strong cold front moves through with breezy NW winds and isolated to scattered rain showers. With how cold the 850 mb temperatures get and forecast soundings have the freezing line only at about 3000 feet, during the lake effect Friday afternoon and evening, it is possible that there could be some wet snow mixing in at higher elevations above 2000 feet.
East winds are expected today through Friday as stronger high pressure will be situated over central Montana. The main impacts may be breezy conditions on ridgetops and through channeled gaps in western Montana.
(Tonight through Friday night) A weak surface inverted trough has contributed to isolated convecton over the coastal waters today, and briefly over the southern Coastal Bend. Concur with deterministic NWP models that upper forcing in advance an quasi- stationary upper trough/low over northwestern Mexico/southwestern CONUS, will contribute to isolated/scattered convection, mainly over the coastal waters tonight, then over the CWA Friday.
Status quo weather pattern set to continue with high pressure remaining in control. After the upper level low breaks off, it retrogrades into California, somewhere, and sets up a "rex block" with an west- east upper level ridge over the Pacific NW and northern Great Basin. The issue is closed lows and how models handle them. The ECMWF was known for handling closed lows better, and it is definitely the drier solution. Messick High pressure remains in control of the weather across eastern Idaho for the next few days. The low expected in the Great Basin on Tue/Wed is looking much weaker and now will likely bring little or no precipitation and not as much cooling. This closed low is once again difficult to pin down even when it is only four days out. Another period of high pressure returns by Wed night.
Current temperatures range from the low 70s on the plateau to the low 80s near the Tennessee River. Winds have become slightly gusty out of the southwest as a cold front approaches from the west. We'll see a drop in dewpoints and cooler overnight lows as we head into the weekend. In fact, tomorrow afternoon temperatures may be 10 degrees cooler than what we're seeing today.
1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A dry atmospheric column and high pressure both at the surface and aloft will yield another warm, but quiet weather day across the region.
A deepening trough over the northeast quarter of the CONUS will force a cold front, which is currently moving south and near the SD/NE border, down into the forecast area late tonight into early Friday.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated the cold front stretched from northeast Lower MI to southeast WI. High pressure is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains on Friday with drier air and subsidence building into WI. Temperatures will be below normal with readings only in the lower to middle 40s north, upper 40s to around 50 degrees south.
140 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 High pressure will extend into the area from the Appalachians. A cold front will move southeastward through the area Friday night. Chilly high pressure will build into the region for the weekend. Thus, not as chilly as previous nights with min Temps in the lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the colder locations over the northern Piedmont. The pre-frontal trough in place over western NC Friday morning will get displaced eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours.
234 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A strong cold front is moving through our CWA as of 2 PM, with stratus and north winds drawing down temperatures to the lower 60s in the north, while it's lower to mid 70s along and south of the front. Highs in the lower 50s north to mid 50s south will be a solid 20 degrees cooler than today. The high pressure center is expected to move over the CWA during the late evening through early morning hours, leaving plenty of time for radiational cooling, especially over the western 3/4s of the CWA.
The previously mentioned high continues to make its way southward with the leading cold front expecting to move through the area this evening.
242 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front will move through the area late Friday or Friday evening with high pressure gradually building over the area in its wake over the weekend. Cool over the weekend as high pressure builds in.
Good daytime heating under mostly sunny skies will allow high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s today and mid to upper 80s Friday, well above seasonal norms.
314 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Discussion/Marine - A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon As of mid afternoon a band of showers had developed ahead of the cold front. Weak instability exists ahead of the cold front with SPC's meso page showing around 250-500 J/kg of SB CAPE. Coldest temperatures will end up around Mt Pleasant and Big Rapids with values potentially dropping into the low to mid 30's. Several models are showing the low level winds backing overnight with clouds moving back in off of Lake MI.
(This evening through Friday Night) Benign and pleasant weather is set to continue today and into Friday as high pressure at 850mb lingers over portions of the Central/Southern Plains. 850mb temperatures will rise by a degree or so as moisture gradually increases, bringing another day of ever-so-slightly warmer weather with highs still generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s. An upper level trough digging in over the Great Lakes Region should drape a weak cold front across our area Friday night. While conditions still remain too dry for any substantial rainfall, this should put temperatures on a downward trend this weekend as breezy, northeasterly winds usher in cooler conditions in the front's wake.
1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (Today through Friday) A cut off upper level low across New Mexico and Arizona early this morning will move southwest into Sonora and Baja California through the day. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s continue today and Friday, with low temperatures modifying slightly warmer Friday morning given the increased cloud cover.
233 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures through Friday, before a dry cold frontal passage Friday night leads to cooler temperatures over the weekend. SW gradient winds increase slightly Friday ahead of cold front, bolstering highs into the low 80s after tonioght's seasonable lows.
Cooler air has been brought in behind this mornings backdoor cold front that will stick around (partially helped to today's low stratus), and bring about eastern Montana's first shot at a freeze and seeing frost.
Meanwhile, a weak cut-off low continues to develop across the far desert southwest. Currently the cold front lies somewhat along the Nebraska/Kansas border and is expected to drop south later this evening into the overnight hours. The cooler post- frontal airmass will result in afternoon highs tomorrow being capped in the low 50s in central KS, and low/mid 60s across southern KS.
A zonal pattern remains over the Florida peninsula with the upper ridge extending west-southwestward over the Bahamas and southern Florida. On the surface, broad high pressure settles in over the southeast U.
The high moves off to the east Friday night, with light southwest winds developing and weak warm air advection. Still looking at another chilly night with many areas near and below freezing once again.
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front moved across the local area earlier today. given the low potential for both.
Temperatures hover in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures drop off tonight with high confidence that temperatures will dip below freezing over the western SD plains. Have expanded Freeze Warning to cover Todd and Jackson counties where it looks like clouds will clear out enough to cause temperatures to drop to below freezing but have opted to keep Freeze Watches in place elsewhere due to uncertainty about cloud cover tonight. Drier air moves into the region this weekend with a slight warm up as ridge builds in the west and return flow brings in warmer temperatures.
1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (Today and tonight) Persistence forecast is in order today with weak upper level ridging in place over west central Texas.
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Clouds increase this afternoon through the overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front moves through tomorrow morning with scattered rain showers and breezy northwest winds. Cooler and breezier weather sticks around through the weekend. Late tonight into tomorrow morning, a strong cold front moves through with breezy NW winds and isolated to scattered rain showers. With how cold the 850 mb temperatures get and forecast soundings have the freezing line only at about 3000 feet, during the lake effect Friday afternoon and evening, it is possible that there could be some wet snow mixing in at higher elevations above 2000 feet.
A mid level trough will continue to swing through the area this afternoon and evening, with its associated cold front trailing slightly behind. This will keep temps from dropping as much as the last couple of nights and overnight lows will only fall into the lower 50s.
945 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front will move through the area overnight into Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring gusty winds out of the north and cooler temperatures for the weekend.
A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through this weekend. Latest WV satellite imagery shows a closed mid/upper level low to the southwest of Tucson along the International border. Given the nearby location of the upper low, PWAT values up near 1 inch and modest instability with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG, we're seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially to the south of Tucson. Most of the activity should gradually diminish after sunset, but we can't rule out some shower activity well into tonight given the nearby location of the mid/upper low. The unusually active period for early October will continue the next few days as the mid/upper low will remain nearly stationary across the far northern Gulf of California or adjacent northern Sonora.
Radar still showing some light shower activity over the higher terrain mainly south of I-70. No changes regarding the timing of the cold front at this time, with frontal passage at Denver expected around midnight. The main short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow will pass well northeast of Colorado, but the cold front associated with it will back southwest across Colorado tonight. Cloud cover and a cooler air behind the cold front will result in a chilly day with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado.
622 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Shower chances return Friday with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles may accompany a cold front across the region on Friday with limitations imposed by lack of instability and moisture depth.
735 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front will move through the area overnight into Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring gusty winds out of the north and cooler temperatures for the weekend.
700 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 High pressure will extend into the area from the Appalachians. A cold front will move southeastward through the area Friday night. Chilly high pressure will build into the region for the weekend. Thus, not as chilly as previous nights with min Temps in the lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the colder locations over the northern Piedmont. The pre-frontal trough in place over western NC Friday morning will get displaced eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours.
An overall cooler airmass has spread across the region this evening. Surface dew point observations this evening are largely in the lower to mid 40's F.
803 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Aviation - A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon As of mid afternoon a band of showers had developed ahead of the cold front. Weak instability exists ahead of the cold front with SPC's meso page showing around 250-500 J/kg of SB CAPE. Coldest temperatures will end up around Mt Pleasant and Big Rapids with values potentially dropping into the low to mid 30's. Several models are showing the low level winds backing overnight with clouds moving back in off of Lake MI.
909 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 The split flow pattern over the western CONUS has transitioned to a Rex Block along the West Coast with a persistent trough over the east. A cold front is moving through the region at this time. This front will bring more dry and cooler air into the region late tonight and Friday.
552 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper low currently over southern Arizona as it retrogrades towards Baja CA. The favored areas for precipitation will continue to be across the higher terrain where orographic lift will aid in thunderstorm development this afternoon. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, with 70s out west and 80s for the lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. The upper pattern will begin to shift as a large upper trough sweeps down over the Great Lakes, and an associated cold front is pushed down into our region. The low over Baja will continue to advect moisture into New Mexico, and depending on the timing of the front, some storms may develop over the Basin as the front travels southward.
658 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front has moved across central Illinois with gusty northwest winds to ushering in a colder air mass.
A dry cold front currently located ENE to WSW across central IL/IN to around St Louis to SE KS will continue moving to the south and east, and sweep across the Valley in the overnight. Current forecasts with lows mostly in the lower 50s looks reasonable at this time.
837 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front will move through the area late Friday or Friday evening with high pressure gradually building over the area in its wake over the weekend. An upper-level trough will pass through the area late this evening, bringing some high and mid-level clouds. The trough will move offshore and subsidence behind it will allow for skies to clear out, although there may still be a scattered strato cu deck with very weak cold air advection in the low-levels. Cool over the weekend as high pressure builds in.
1049 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front will move through the area late Friday or Friday evening with high pressure gradually building over the area in its wake over the weekend. An upper-level trough will pass through the area late this evening, bringing some high and mid-level clouds. The trough will move offshore and subsidence behind it will allow for skies to clear out, although there may still be a scattered strato cu deck with very weak cold air advection in the low-levels. Cool over the weekend as high pressure builds in.
632 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Summary: Noticeably cooler and breezy, but a slow warm up on the way while keeping fairly dry. An early season arctic air mass is in the process of settling over the region today bringing gusty winds and much cooler temperatures.
High pressure remains the dominant weather pattern for the next several days. High pressure will keep a lid on the sensible weather for northern and central Nevada.
637 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Much cooler and drier air continues to stream into the region behind this morning's cold front. The forcing for light precipitation will decrease overnight, but some flurries can't be ruled out tomorrow morning when temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler as cold high pressure centers over the region, with highs generally in the upper 40s. A widespread freeze looks likely Friday night with mostly clear skies and light winds thanks to the high pressure overhead. Lows around 30 are likely everywhere except the core of the Twin Cities metro where the urban heat island effect will keep temperatures several degrees warmer.
High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather through the weekend.
747 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front approaches the area later today. Scattered light rain showers or sprinkles are possible early tonight as a cold front passes through the region.
312 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Skies will continue to clear tonight as high pressure builds in with winds becoming light, or east generally under 10 mph. This will allow decent radiational cooling to take place and temperatures falling to near or below freezing for much of the CWA. Friday morning lows may drop to the low to mid 20s along the immediate Canadian border, as well as in some of the deeper river valleys, particularly in the east. As the high pressure center shifts east and a ridge builds in over the weekend, expect temperatures to recover and dry weather to continue.
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 (This evening through Friday) Expanding upper low to our west continues its retrograde back toward Arizona and NW Old Mexico with assistance from a broadening trough across the northern Plains states and Great Lakes.
624 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A cold front moved across the local area earlier today. given the low potential for both.
A strong cold front is moving through our CWA as of 2 PM, with stratus and north winds drawing down temperatures to the lower 60s in the north, while it's lower to mid 70s along and south of the front. Highs in the lower 50s north to mid 50s south will be a solid 20 degrees cooler than today. The high pressure center is expected to move over the CWA during the late evening through early morning hours, leaving plenty of time for radiational cooling, especially over the western 3/4s of the CWA.
Dry high pressure remains over the region for another pleasantly dry and cool evening and overnight tonight with clear skies. A zonal pattern remains over the Florida peninsula with the upper ridge extending west-southwestward over the Bahamas and southern Florida. On the surface, broad high pressure settles in over the southeast U.
937 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A lee trough and warm southwesterly flow will prevail ahead of a strong, but moisture-starved cold front that will cross the region Friday night. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. Beneath that wly flow aloft, an Appalachian-lee trough will continue to extend swwd across the srn mid-Atlantic Foothills and wrn Piedmont. While occasional light swly stirring may result in the presence of the lee trough, a weak MSL pressure gradient surrounding it, and the development/maintenance of a strong nocturnal inversion, will favor more calm than stirring. The pre-frontal trough in place over western NC Friday morning will get displaced eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours.
Forecast Highlights: -A cold front is moving through the area today with a much cooler air mass working in behind it.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front currently moving into central Kansas this evening will continue to surge south tonight and is forecast to be near the I-44 corridor across northeast Oklahoma by 12z Friday morning.