Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
244 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Imagery shows amplified ridge over the wrn CONUS with a broadening trof stretching from ecntrl Canada through the nrn Plains then across the midwest as far south as Arkansas. The SFC has high pressure currently in place over WY with a weak trof/boundary near the CO/WY border and a cold front draped across sern MT and nrn SD. Monday and Tuesday - the FA will remain under NW flow aloft with just enough instability in the afternoons and evenings to get a few isolated showers/thunder mainly over the higher terrain, or closely adjacent areas, of the FA.
242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Large upper low clearly seen on water vapor imagery early this morning just north of the Minnesota arrowhead. While a lot of the activity will be closer to the low, the arrival of one of the waves will trigger some isolated convection by mid afternoon from about I-55 east, where CAPE's are progged to reach about 1000 J/kg. As the upper wave should arrive later in the day, the warmer weather will linger for another day, with highs mainly in the lower 80s. The upper pattern will be slow to transition through mid week, but the broad trough will slowly shift east as the upper low hangs out over northern Ontario.
1027 PM PDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure continues over the Inland Northwest through Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a small chance of thunderstorms in the higher elevations, otherwise expect dry weather. A cold front arrives Tuesday night with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
141 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Monday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area. Frontal boundary will continue moving toward the area on Monday as the upper level ridge further weakens. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be in the lower 90s with lows Monday night in the upper 60s to low 70s.
400 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Broad upper level troughing covers the central and northeastern U.
246 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Upper low continues to spin across the western Great Lakes. The next lobe rotating around the low could help trigger isolated showers today across the northern Plains/upper Mississippi River Valley, in response to the cool temps aloft and very steep lapse rates.
322 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 The Northern Rockies will continue to have warmer than normal temperatures as high pressure moves over the region. Mostly dry conditions will persist, with the exception of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain in the afternoons.
Gentle NW flow at 500 mb, between a deep closed low over the Great Lakes and a broad high pressure ridge over the Desert SW.
More shower development will be possible later today as with the cold upper low in the area there will be steep lapse rates and showers developing across most of the area. With minor waves it will be difficult to pinpoint exact placement of showers except for a general trend more towards the east as the upper low slowly pulls further away.
327 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 The GOES-R water vapor imagery showed a nearly stationary upper low spinning north of MN, and a upper ridge situated over the Intermountain West. A cold front extended from occluded low south of Hudson Bay Canada through southeast MN, far southern SD, northeast WY to northwest MT. The cold front to the north will progress southward across the CWA this morning. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler with highs in the 60s to around 70. Tuesday will trend warmer and slightly drier as precip water values lower between 0.
models are picking up on a weak disturbance across the high plains which may bring a few light showers or sprinkles to north central Kansas later this morning and possibly into the afternoon hours.
124 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. Scattered thunderstorms developed along and ahead of weak sfc cold front approaching from the west. Expect lows from the upper 50s west to the lower 60s east. Some energy rotating around an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday night. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties.
410 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Today is expected to be cooler and breezy with increasing clouds, scattered showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm possible. Low clouds and drizzle were wrapping around this low, and should overspread the region this morning.
A strong U/L ridge will be centered over the Florida peninsula today and will shift east of Florida on Tuesday, but will still hold over the region. A cut-off low over the northern Great Lakes will rotate slowly north toward southern Hudson Bay on Tuesday. Southern extent of associated L/W trough will sink south and will approach northern Florida late Tuesday. At the surface, Florida peninsula will be on the western periphery of a large area of high pressure centered over the central Atlantic. The ridge axis, which has been south of the forecast area creating onshore boundary layer flow, will lift gradually north across the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Hot conditions expected across west central and southwest Florida today under mostly sunny skies as the U/L ridge will be anchored over the region creating strong large scale subsidence over the region.
400 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 The next upper level disturbance rotating around the large upper low over Ontario will move south across the region today. Cooler air and clouds also spreading southward currently, and wonder if this may limit instability a bit today.
341 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A large ridge of high pressure will provide dry and increasingly warmer temperatures to the Great Basin for Memorial Day. A Pacific trough will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to Nevada by midweek. Upper ridge holds sway today and tonight but breaks down with oncoming potent short wave from the west on Tuesday. 4" by Tuesday with potential for high based dry thunderstorms, especially in the far west of Humboldt and northwest Nye Counties, and in the highlands of eastern White Pine County. Adjusted highs on Tuesday about 2-4 degrees, which brings lower 90s into northwest Nevada and the lower valleys of Elko and Nye Counties.
Cooler for Monday, with a lot more in way of low clouds in the morning into early afternoon. Approaching low pressure from the west will bring increasing southerly flow aloft.
The trough axis moves inland Tuesday and we may continue to see some afternoon thunderstorms along the crest from around Alpine County southward.
North to northwest flow will be found above the Central High Plains today through tonight due to an upper level low over the Great Lakes and an upper level ridge over the western United States. A piece of upper level energy will swing around the upper level low and through the Northern Plains today. This will in turn help push a cold front through Kansas this afternoon. This will be short lived as winds quickly turn to the east or southeast tonight when the center of high pressure slides east of the CWA. Weak northwesterly flow continues through mid week then the upper level ridge pushes eastward overhead as the next upper level trough digs into the western United States.
With cooler air aloft behind this trough/PV anomaly, diurnally driven clouds and scattered showers with perhaps a few peals of thunder will develop late this morning and afternoon. Used hi-res models over global models to bring PoPs farther south toward the Highway 30 corridor.
High pressure will slowly build across the region through the remainder of the holiday weekend, resulting in a warming trend extending into the middle of the week.
414 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 The local area will be located between low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a ridge across the lower Ohio Valley today.
A frontal boundary should push into the northeastern portions of the forecast area later today but then lift back to the north and east by Tuesday as a warm front.
628 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Low pressure centered north of the Great Lakes will push an occluded front eastward across New england through Tuesday. Warmer weather returns for the second half of the work week, but with the chance of showers each day. a 1000 millibar low was over the upper Great Lakes with associated warm front through the mid atlantic region and a trailing cold front through the Mississippi valley. We're left with the persistent onshore flow with widespread stratus and fog along with patchy drizzle for the remainder of the overnight period as the warm front remains hung up to our south and west.
324 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 A few isolated showers will continue through the morning as a cold front makes its way through the forecast area. The old frontal boundary may try to sneak back into the forecast area during the afternoon as a warm front.
400 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 The ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will dominate the weather pattern for today with mainly mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures expected. Models have cut back a bit on the influx of moisture and resultant convective, but still expect isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high country this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Models were consistent in shifting the ridge eastward Tuesday night allowing more moisture to advect into southern Colorado.
342 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 With an upper level ridge of high pressure residing over the region for the next few days, expect above normal temperatures across the region.
146 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure will linger over the region into Monday. A weak cold front will gradually sag south across the area prior to midweek. Atlantic high pressure will extend west over the region late week into the upcoming weekend. It will be quiet the remainder of the overnight other than patches of high clouds moving through from nocturnal convection near the Lower Mississippi Valley. It will be mild as temperatures will likely linger in the low 70s. Another hot day in store with highs in the low/mid 90s. Highs expected to reach the lower 90s prior to any tstm development.
29/06Z TAF CYCLE A cold front continues to work its way through the state with cooler and drier air in its wake. Latest surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front roughly bisecting the state from southwest to northeast with drier air having worked into the NW corner of the state.
500 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Today is expected to be cooler and breezy with increasing clouds, scattered showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm possible. Low clouds and drizzle were wrapping around this low, and should overspread the region this morning.
Northwest flow continues aloft with a short wave rotating around the Lake Michigan upper low. This has pushed a weak cold front into the Central Plains with a band of weak surface pressure falls (against normal diurnal rises) across much of Nebraska and Iowa at 07Z. Low level temp trends show a bit of cooling occurring behind this front for a slightly cooler day for much of the area. Tuesday brings the next chance for thunderstorms, as the LLJ brings an area of showers and storms into central Kansas in the overnight hours, while the larger scale upper trof swings another lobe of energy over northeast Kansas in the afternoon.
Persistence is the way to go with this forecast and will again have likely pops in for the afternoon into early evening with diurnal heating being the strongest and causing the highest instability and then diminish pops to chance tonight with diurnal cooling taking place.
Synoptic Setup: A large trough runs southward through Manitoba and into eastern Dakotas and the Upper Mississippi Valley. To the west a large ridge runs northern from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest and up into British Columbia where it crests over the Yukon Territory. This is creating an express-lane of northern flow across the high plains of Alberta, eastern Montana, and Wyoming. Today through Tuesday: With the coldest air aloft having moved off farther east, the ridge from the west slowly gaining control, and cold air being pumped in at the surface, the atmospheric profile has stabilized.
/issued 303 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): To say the least it is hot once again across the CWA with the Heat Advisory working out well with temperatures and dew points peaking out ahead of a weak cold front approaching South Central Texas.
Behind the outflow, dew points have fallen off into the lower and middle 60s. While there will likely be a lull in precipitation this morning for much of the area, will operate under the assumption that the lower levels will mix out, allowing convective development as the next jet impulse approaches.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to be more widespread on Monday as a cold front approaches north Georgia and begins to stall. RW Broad upper trough will continue over the eastern U.
A cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning. 12Z/28 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft. Upper level trough to sharpen into the ern CONUS.
There is also some weak surface convergence under the same area, what is left of yesterday's better defined cold front which is very subtle now. Light downslope winds should prevent any fog and keep temperatures the same or a little warmer than this morning.
A warming trend will continue through Tuesday as a high-amplitude upper ridge moves slowly eastward through the region. Temperatures will be 3-6 degrees warmer today and another 3-6 degrees warmer on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be the warmest so far this year - reaching the lower 90s in the Treasure Valley (but well short of any records).
334 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 The latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving east southeast through southeast South Dakota. On Tuesday and Tuesday evening, a series of short wave troughs will move southeast through the region.
307 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Low pressure centered north of the Great Lakes will push an occluded front eastward across New england through Tuesday. Warmer weather returns for the second half of the work week, but with the chance of showers each day. a 1000 millibar low was over the upper Great Lakes with associated warm front through the mid atlantic region and a trailing cold front through the Mississippi valley. We're left with the persistent onshore flow with widespread stratus and fog along with patchy drizzle for the remainder of the overnight period as the warm front remains hung up to our south and west.
300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Northerly flow aloft continues today, as an upper low maintains its position over southern Ontario. Highs will be cooler today with mid/upper 50s in the Turtle Mountains, while low to mid 60s will occur elsewhere. Overnight lows overall will range the upper 30s from western into most of central ND, with lower 40s James River Valley where enough cloudiness remains in association with the Ontario upper low. The Ontario upper low slowly shifts east Tuesday.
and low pressure continuing across the Great Lkes.
However, energy aloft spoking base of long wave trof will develop/drive a cold front across the Ohio valley this evening. And again, more long wave energy aloft spokes the base of the mean trof and develops/ushers another cold front/boundary into the Ohio river valley Tuesday night.
Hot and dry conditions will persist through today before an upper low influences the middle of the week.
519 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Large upper low clearly seen on water vapor imagery early this morning just north of the Minnesota arrowhead. While a lot of the activity will be closer to the low, the arrival of one of the waves will trigger some isolated convection by mid afternoon from about I-55 east, where CAPE's are progged to reach about 1000 J/kg. As the upper wave should arrive later in the day, the warmer weather will linger for another day, with highs mainly in the lower 80s. The upper pattern will be slow to transition through mid week, but the broad trough will slowly shift east as the upper low hangs out over northern Ontario.
/issued 248 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ The cold front that moved through late last night and early this morning was now making its way through the center part of the state. However a disturbance traversing the southern Rockies will help fire storms over the higher terrain of northern New Mexico during the afternoon hours. Given this low storm chances have been expanded slightly to cover approximately the northwest 1/12th of the CWA.
Have slight chance and chance pops mainly south of I-40 and on the southern half of the Plateau as the cold front becomes more of a stationary boundary as it stalls a bit today. As another lobe of the upper closed low over the Great Lakes swings eastward, the front should move out of the area and dry conditions will briefly return to the mid state overnight tonight. Models do not completely agree on location and timing as the upper trough is still well to the north, but enough of a chance exists to toss in mention for the later part of Tuesday.
331 AM PDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure will continue to bring above normal temperatures and dry weather to much of the area through Tuesday.
335 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Upper low centered just north of Lake Superior will broaden with the addition of upper energy dropping through Central Canada and the Northern Plains.
Today through Tuesday night Cold front was situated acrs SRN AR early this mrng, vcnty of a line fm KPBF-KADF-KDEQ. Temps ahead of the fnt were in the lower 70s, with upper 50s to upper 60s noted to the north. The overall flow pattern aloft acrs the region wl transition fm zonal to more NWLY heading into Tue, as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes region.
followed by cooler and showery conditions for the remainder of the week. A transition of airmasses will begin today as the upper ridge of high pressure axis moves east of CA and allows an upper level trough to approach the coast. For interior areas however the approaching trough aloft will provide a combination of increased low- level moisture and instability, along with some weak dynamic forcing aloft. Even better chances of showers are expected on Tuesday, but, as mentioned by previous shifts, instability will be waning during this time frame as cooler air moves into the area. Heights are expected to build over the W coast by late in the coming week, with decreasing chances of rain and warmer temperatures.
256 AM PDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure continues over the Inland Northwest through Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a small chance of thunderstorms in the higher elevations, otherwise expect dry weather. A cold front arrives Tuesday night with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Nudged overnight lows a bit lower than guidance given the low dewpoints. As the upper trough pushes further south tonight and Monday, low clouds will move over the eastern Dakotas.
A weak cold front located across Central Nebraska will slowly drop south during the morning hours, "backdooring" its way across the forecast area by the afternoon. Ketcham NW flow slowly shifts east of the area for Tue night, with gradually increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow for Wed into the weekend. This return moist flow will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high plains, for the late afternoon and overnight hours. Another cold front will arrive on Mon afternoon and we could see an isolated storm or two across Southern KS possibly impacting KCNU or even KICT after 21-22Z, but confidence in coverage remains too low to mention in TAFs at this time.
136 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight.
This will lead to a rather cool day w/daytime temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s w/the warmer temps away from the Bangor- Bar Harbor region. Cloudy conditions with highs in the lower 60s are anticipated Tuesday with the risk of showers increasing later in the day with the occluded front.
The culprit is a deep low pressure area over southern Manitoba and northwestern Quebec. Vort maxima will be rotating around the low and over the northland. With a low freezing level, these storms have been very low-topped and especially productive small hail producers. Expect about the same type of weather Monday, but maybe not quite so rambunctious as the temperature lapse rate won't be quite as strong with warmer 500 mb and little instability. The closed upper low meanders around northwest Ontario Monday night through Tuesday night. Several pieces of energy, along with a pair of tight short wave trofs, will rotate through the forecast area during this time. Much cooler temps are forecast as 850mb temps drop to near zero celsius through this period. The rain will end from west to east Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the region.
415 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Weak cold front dropping south through the plains early this morning, as latest in a series of short waves rotates southwestward around the Great Lakes upper trough.
/issued 214 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ A cold front has pushed south into Mexico early this afternoon on gusty northerly winds. Temperatures are more tolerable areawide behind the front, with readings running around 15 degrees cooler than yesterday so far this afternoon, and winds have begun to settle down. There were a few showers and thunderstorms along the cold front this morning, but prospects for additional convection/ precipitation appear slim through the rest of the afternoon. There does not appear to be much mid level support for convection during the afternoon/evening, but we could see thunderstorms develop in a modestly unstable, uncapped atmosphere over the higher terrain during max heating.
357 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A reinforcing cold front moves through this morning.
The upper low responsible for the unsettled cyclonic flow aloft across the forecast area the past several days will finally shift further east across the Great Lakes today into Tuesday. This will allow the upper level ridge and associated axis that has been over the Pacific Northwest the past several days to slowly shift east over Montana. As a result, expect rising heights today into Tuesday as the ridge axis positions itself over the state by Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to warm several degrees each day with readings above normal by Tuesday when middle 70s will be common for most areas across the lower elevations.
/issued 350 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/ Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures and highs in the mid 90s. The sea breeze will move in a little quicker tomorrow perhaps knocking 1 or 2 degrees off the highs along the east coast. High pressure gradually moves east through the early part of the week, resulting in a more east southeast flow.
333 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure passes south of the area today.
19z surface analysis had low over southern SK with trough into NE and another into eastern MT. Upper low spinning over the southeast SK with pinwheeling disturbances rotating around it into the Dakotas. Monday and Tuesday, modest upper ridge will bring a couple of nice days.
622 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough rotating around a strong stationary low pressure system over Ontario will bring a slight chance of showers to our area again Tuesday.