Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1001 AM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 Upper wave is crossing the northern plains, and cold front has already passed through SD. A cold front is now crossing the CWA with northwest winds behind it generally gusting to 30-40mph across the northeast WY and western SD plains. Short range models and forecast soundings continue to show strong NW winds continuing this morning with the strong pressure gradient on the backside of the low. The previous shift noted the cold front moving in quicker than progged. Skies will clear out today and remain clear through Thursday as high pressure settles in across the region.
By early Thursday morning, patchy freezing fog should also develop. Weak high pressure will persist Thursday, but a westerly flow aloft will bring more and more high clouds over the area.
259 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 An upper level low pressure area off the coast of California and Mexico will begin to move northeast tonight reaching the San Diego area tomorrow morning then into northwest Arizona by the end of the day. Late in the day tomorrow the sfc pressure gradient increases as high pressure moves east/southeast and low pressure develops along the front range. Will have to watch for possibility of some freezing drizzle working its way in toward 00z as mid level moisture availability decreases. Low temperatures tonight in the low to upper teens. High temperatures should range from the mid 30s across the far west through southern parts of the area to the low/possibly mid 40s across the far northeast and eastern parts of the area.
Morning surface analysis shows cold front near the KS/NE border with gusty northwest winds and good surface pressure falls providing a southward push. Have updated the forecast for mostly cloudy skies today with the higher level overcast currently observed.
The 1 pm regional surface analysis showed a weak area of high pressure across much of the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a rather flat ridge over the Southern Plains, with dry, sinking air in northwest flow aloft over the eastern portions of our forecast area. The NWP guidance consensus has lows ranging from the lower 40s across north FL and south central GA (where skies will be mostly clear), to around 50 in the FL Panhandle and southeast AL (where clouds will be increasing).
1146 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 After some patchy morning fog today, temperatures will rise some but remain near normal for this time of year ahead of a cold front. This cold front does not have much if any moisture with it so no precipitation is expected. While this cold front will bring temperature down it will not be anywhere near as powerful as the arctic blast that came through this past weekend. Weak ridging will come in behind this front which will keep the skies clear for the most part and keep temperatures near normal.
1150 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will extend across the Southeastern U. A moisture-starved cold front will cross our region Thursday afternoon and evening. An area of high pressure at the surface will build into then settle over the Carolinas today. the weak cold air advection noted on the 850mb analysis will likely be offset by the downslope component of the low level wind. Lows generally in the lower to middle 30s, shy of optimal radiational cooling values, given both the potential uptick in clouds, and occasional stirring. ~MWS The models have slowed by a few hours with the moisture-starved cold frontal passage Thu afternoon, and evening in the SE. On the heels of the dry cold front on Thursday, high pressure with pacific origins will settle over the area, resulting in near normal highs.
A wind shift to NW will occur overnight ahead of a cold front. A cold front will move into the region bringing north winds. Skies continue to clear over the coastal plains as mid and upper- level ridging and drier air move into the area. A cold front will move through the area between 06-09Z Thursday, bringing a switch back to northerly winds and CAA.
951 AM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 Skies have cleared over the forecast area, except just low clouds along the ridgelines over the Northern Rockies. Skies have cleared across much of central and north central MT as the high pressure ridging begins to build in from the west.
Tonight, a cold front will move through the area. Temperatures will fall into the 30s across the CWA, but temperatures will be noticeably cooler tomorrow. Temperatures will be cooler Thursday behind the cold front, with highs ranging from the upper 40s north of I-20 to the mid 50s along the I-10 corridor.
The low cloud deck in Southeast AL persisted overnight at KTOI and has moved back northward to KMGM, putting an end to the dense fog.
1136 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 Some breaks in the cloud cover late this morning have allowed temperatures to climb quickly into the upper 50s to lower 60s along and south of I-20 while areas farther north remain a bit cooler with more dense cloud cover still in place. However, do expect warmer temperatures to eventually work farther north as well with afternoon highs ranging through the 60s for nearly all of the region.
115 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will be centered near the forecast area tonight. A weak and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday.
Expecting another cold front passage tonight, with the initial wind shift beginning in the northern zones shortly after midnight and pushing through San Antonio by 8 or 9Z. The most significant impacts of the front will include cooler temperatures including highs in the 50s and 60s and winds of 15-25 mph gusting to possibly 30 mph in the afternoon.
A large area of low pressure off the Baja Coast will continue to increase moisture over Arizona today with mild temperatures.
The lower conditions in the valleys will clear to VFR by late morning. High pressure building offshore with a weak trough near the coast will result in decreasing winds and seas later today but seas will remain high and steep.
With a high pressure system centered over the area, surface winds will be light and rather variable. The 7 am regional surface analysis showed an area of high pressure across much of the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a rather flat ridge over the Southern Plains, with very dry, sinking air in northwest flow aloft over our forecast area. Visible satellite imagery showed multiple large breaks in the low overcast which have enshrouded our forecast area the past few days, and vertical mixing will rapidly erode these clouds so that we expect clear skies by noon.
313 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 Fast upper flow across the northern states has brought the latest modified cold front through all but southeast portions of the area today. Water vapor imagery showing the persistent upper low off Baja beginning to move east. Appears cloud cover will be mainly limited to some cirrus tonight with increasing and thickening high cloud Thursday with very dry mid level airmass working in with the Pacific anticyclone following the front.
341 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 A weak cold front will pass through SE Texas overnight tonight, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for the next couple of days before the warming trend returns. In the wake of the front, high temperatures will start out in the low to mid 60s for tomorrow before gradually warming to reach the mid to upper 70s by Christmas Day.
1019 AM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 Upper wave is crossing the northern plains, and cold front has already passed through SD. A cold front is now crossing the CWA with northwest winds behind it generally gusting to 30-40mph across the northeast WY and western SD plains. Short range models and forecast soundings continue to show strong NW winds continuing this morning with the strong pressure gradient on the backside of the low. The previous shift noted the cold front moving in quicker than progged. Skies will clear out today and remain clear through Thursday as high pressure settles in across the region.
Dense fog continues for the Lower Treasure Valley mainly West of Boise. This will likely keep Thursday's low temperatures a little warmer than forecast. Clear and cool today behind yesterday's cold front, with high temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal.
313 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 Low pressure will swing into the region later tonight into Thursday with a period of light snow and minor accumulations.
As far as temperatures and dew points, we continue to run a few degrees warmer and wetter than most guidance, with dew points already back into the lower 70s as of 19Z today after a brief break into the upper 60s. Generally, expect slightly cooler and drier conditions in the coming days before another reinforcing shot of tropical air returns in time for the holiday weekend.
Weak ridging will continue to build in tonight into Thursday, making for mostly clear skies, light winds, and above normal temperatures.
216 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 Initial forecast concern will be closed cyclone off the coast of Baja California as it tracks northeast over the next 36 hours. Clouds will be on the increase during the day on Thursday ahead of this system, but with bare ground and a southwest wind we should see highs again climb into the lower to middle 40s despite the clouds.
919 AM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 Upper ridge building over the region will bring dry weather to our cwa today/tonight. POST FRONTAL WINDS HIT 50 TO 60 MPH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN THE NW SECTION OF OUR CWA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE CWA, AND HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
Skies have cleared over the forecast area, except just low clouds along the ridgelines over the Northern Rockies.
1242 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will be centered near the forecast area today and tonight. A weak and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday.
Areas of dense freezing fog mainly near the lakes early this morning gave way to partly cloudy skies by late morning.
Southwest winds this afternoon will turn to the north this evening as a cold front moves through the area. Southwest winds will continue through this afternoon, before a cold front shifts winds around to the north this evening. Another warm day in store for West Central Texas, with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 70s. A cold front will arrive across the Big Country late this afternoon, just after max heating, and move through the remainder of West Central Texas tonight. Cooler and drier air mass behind the front, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s.
Cold air advection will kick in quickly with northwest flow behind the low off to the northeast. Then, drier air will move in for Thursday as high pressure moves south of the region.
1152 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will be centered near the forecast area today and tonight. A weak and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday.
Thickening cloud cover and light precip will also result in cooler then previously forecast temps.
Areas of dense freezing fog mainly near the lakes early this morning gave way to partly cloudy skies by late morning. Weak trough over the Northern Plains at 18Z will move eastward through the Great Lakes by 18Z Thursday. This will help send a weak cold front down into Middle TN very late tonight into Thursday morning.
101 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the area today allowing for seasonable temperatures. A mid- level trough will move through the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, with a weak cold front moving through the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon.
There are also some SHRA associated with this low. Mid level ridge weakens across the region allowing this front to move across S Fl. As the front moves closer to S FL, ne winds will prevail Thursday bringing cooler air advection into the region.
456 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 A mid-level trough will move through the Great Lakes late night and Thursday, with a weak cold front moving through the Ohio Valley early Thursday.
1105 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 Low pressure will pass well north of the area today. Raised temps a bit along the Downeast coast through the midday hours where temps are in the low to mid 30s already. Low pressure will move across Southern Canada today passing well to the north of the region. A cold front will move across the state tonight with more snow showers in the west and north. Weak low pressure will approach from the west late tonight.
244 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 Models continuing trending to a warmer wetter scenario this forecast cycle. upper high sets up across FL with axis running up eastern seaboard. Flow remains progressive as deep upper trough across the nations west 12Z Sun digs a closed low. and that upper low moves rapidly across the high plains and into Canada by Mon evening. Upper high does hold across FL into Mon but finally breaks down Mon night into Tue. Brief drying late Tue already being replaced by deeper moisture Wed as next approaching cold front drops into the MS river valley late. Weak trough over the Northern Plains at 18Z will move eastward through the Great Lakes by 18Z Thursday. This will help send a weak cold front down into Middle TN very late tonight into Thursday morning.
353 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 Upper level flow across the area has become zonal today as an upper ridge builds across the Bay of Campeche and weaker trough tracks across the upper Mississippi River Valley. A weak frontal boundary associated with the northern trough is currently draped across the central plains. It will be losing steam while doing so as the upper trough to the north races east.
Moisture increases in the lowest levels overnight, with cigs falling to around 015, with some BR formation expected, especially in the clearer areas closer to the coast.
Expect SCT to BKN skies today becoming BKN/OVC overnight as RH remains high in the low to mid levels to support cloud cover.
Snowfall across these areas are not expected to linger long, but later tonight we could see a transition from snow to freezing drizzle as forecast soundings are consistent in showing dry mid-level air advecting into the area. However, forecast soundings do show cloud top temperatures of between -9C to - 6C in some locations, so it is tricky to pinpoint exactly what locations may see freezing drizzle develop as a few clouds may still contain enough ice to produce some light snow. Thursday as weak upper-level ridging builds into the area, precipitation will diminish and clouds will clear from west to east. Highs should again climb into the low to mid 30s with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s Thursday night as 925/850 mb temps climb to around 0C.
In addition, the low cloud cover that had been approaching from the southwest has eroded while additional band of low and high clouds approaches from Central MS and Central Plains, respectively.
323 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will gradually weaken across the area tonight and Thursday.
318 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 A weak cold front/wind shift dropping through the region this afternoon is moisture starved and mostly cloud-free. In fact thanks to zonal upper flow, the airmass behind this front is more of Pacific origin so that temperatures tonight will actually be a few degrees warmer than last night.
327 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 A cold front currently stretches form Eastern Iowa to Eastern Kansas. However, slightly cooler temperatures will occur behind the front. Expect highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. High pressure will briefly build back into the area by Thursday afternoon into Thursday Night.
223 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will build over the area tonight.
648 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A low pressure system approaching from the plains will cause a mix of light rain and light snow to develop later this afternoon and continue into early Saturday morning.
Keeping rain chances on the low side, ranging from 30 percent across the Big Country, to 20 percent elsewhere. Despite extensive cloud cover, strong warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 60s for most of the area this afternoon.
640 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 Fast moving low pressure will bring showers to the region late tonight and Saturday morning. The upper level wave will exit by late Saturday morning, as a midwest ridge quickly builds.
953 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will continue to move off to the east today. A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Saturday morning.
609 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today. The high will be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and Saturday and establish an onshore flow into the forecast area. A weakening cold front will be just northwest of the area Saturday. The front will dissipate and high pressure will ridge into the region from the north Christmas Day. The moisture advection should continue tonight but flat upper ridging should generally keep this moisture shallow except possibly in the northwest section closer to somewhat deeper moisture ahead of an approaching weakening front and farther from the stronger upper ridging to the south. The weakening cold front should be just northwest of the forecast area Saturday.
920 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will build over the area today before moving to the east tonight. Low pressure moving north of the region will cause a cold front to cross the area Saturday.
631 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will build over the area today before moving to the east tonight. Low pressure moving north of the region will cause a cold front to cross the area Saturday.
With holiday travel increasing this evening, the Winter Weather Advisory is warranted, even if some places get the lower end of the snowfall range. While most of the precipitation will fall as snow, some light freezing rain or rain is possible during the mid to late evening as moisture shallows out in the mid-levels, leading to a loss of ice production in the saturated layer. Precipitation should quickly end as the upper trof departs around midnight, and the dry weather should continue into Saturday as high pressure ridges into the western Great Lakes.
This front will continue to meander along the Gulf Coast before making a surge northward later today as a warm front. Upper level zonal flow will give way to upper SW flow in response to a trough digging across the Southern Plains. WAA will begin to increase as the day continues as a result of return flow from a broad area of high pressure that will continue to push off the eastern Seaboard. Despite a chilly start for most of the ArkLaMiss, temperatures will increase to nearly 10 degrees above average today as warmer air advects into the region from the south.
423 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Axis of deep saturation had already thinned out markedly across our western counties before daybreak ahead of a progressive, positively tilted trough. As the upper trough splits and minors out while passing over the CWA today, considerable drying of the column will ensue. This along with deepening westerlies in the low levels and mild thicknesses should easily boost max temps 10+ degrees above normal. The northern split of the aforementioned trough is shown to nudge a weak cold front into the Texas Panhandle overnight, but this should fall short of our Panhandle counties as surface ridging retreats northeast of the region.
With the low ceilings and mist/-DZ, visibilities will likely be reduced even further to 1-3SM Saturday morning as well. Christmas eve looks to be much warmer than normal with some highest minimum records possible.
Meanwhile a mid level trof will approach from the west. Temps will climb a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday though clouds will hamper warming. The warm front will push north to about I-40 and stall while the mid level trough moves across the region. This band of rain will taper off and move east as the trough and entrance region of the jet move east. A few showers are possible Saturday night as the warm front remains over the area. in response to developing low pressure over the plains. the warm front will surge north. Temps will surge into the lower 70s in most places with mainly rain free conditions.
The deep upper level trough just offshore will continue to deepen as it pushes inland tonight and Saturday. Heaviest snowfall episodes are expected be this afternoon with the front, and late tonight through Saturday morning as the upper level trough moves inland. Another round of snow is expected Saturday morning with passage of the cold front and upper level trough.
559 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Generally IFR morning conditions with periods of light rain/drizzle /mist within a mild and moist air mass behind a regional warm frontal passage. /ISSUED 312 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ Warm front will continue moving northward across our area today.
408 AM MST Fri Dec 23 2016 Satellite showing the upper level trough moving across Colorado at this time. Where precipitation is falling it is likely freezing rain based on the temperature profile of the airmass. This will result in warmer temperatures today. Quiet weather conditions are expected tonight as an upper level ridge moves across the state this evening. As the 500mb trough axis passes over Utah, 700-400mb Q-G lift quickly increases downstream over Colorado. Snowfall should develop and snow levels should quickly lower in the mountains and high valleys Saturday evening as moisture spreads over the area and despite the less than favorable strong southerly flow ahead of the trough.
920 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure is expected to build across the area on today.
Despite the cloud cover, overnight temps were running 5 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago thanks to yesterday morning's cold front. Rain chances will be much higher late tonight and into Saturday as the trough passes through TN. Saturday night as the trough departs and weak upper level ridging occurs.
1034 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 Fast moving low pressure will bring showers to the region late tonight and Saturday morning. The upper level wave will exit by late Saturday morning, as a midwest ridge quickly builds.
Despite the cloud cover, overnight temps were running 5 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago thanks to yesterday morning's cold front. Weak H5 trough over the Rockies this morning will move east and tap into increasing moisture to help bring a slight chance of showers to our NW counties by late afternoon. Rain chances will be much higher late tonight and into Saturday as the trough passes through TN. Saturday night as the trough departs and weak upper level ridging occurs.
900 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A low pressure system will result in unsettled weather this Christmas weekend. High pressure will be in control through much of today. As the system moves in from the west overnight, high pressure will continue to move eastward and out of the region. Some colder valleys, especially in the Greenbrier Valley, could see temps drop to around freezing. Model soundings indicate that on the onset of showers, those colder valleys could see a brief period of freezing rain before sunrise, before changing to all rain. For Saturday, WAA showers will be around for much of the day until the dampening s/w trof can move thru. This trend will hold into Christmas morning until a stronger surge of WAA/warm front crosses to scour out the crud and allow for a warm afternoon.
Aloft, the low that was sitting off the Baja Coast yesterday morning is lifting northeast acrs the Four Corners, while a broad flat ridge was seen over the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring warmer and more humid conditions back over LA and east TX. As this warm and very moist airmass moves inland, passing across the relatively cooler shelf waters nearshore, patchy marine fog is expected to develop and advect inland over the coastal parishes and counties.