Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A flat upper ridge is expected to build over the region during the period, with significant subsidence overnight (deterministic runs. However, will place more weight in the 12z Sunday SREF ensemble mean temperatures and will forecast lows in the lower to mid 40s.
A dry cold front will result in a wind shift to the north and northeast Sunday. Highs Sunday still look to reach the 60s for most, with upper 50s possible in the higher terrain and northern Lea county, and lower 70s across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande Valley.
Winds have become gusty over the higher elevations, with many mountain AWOS locations gusting 30-40 kts as of 21z. Could see a snow shower over the higher peaks of Lake County late in the afternoon, though slightly better precip chances will wait for arrival of upper energy later Sunday night.
Strong northwesterly winds around 10 to 15 mpg and gusting to 25 mph will be possible for a few more hours, and a bit longer on the Plateau as the upper trough continues to progress eastward.
Overnight lows should be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area, which is similar to or a few degrees cooler than what was observed last night. Slightly cooler temperatures for tonight are consistent with the lack of cloud cover and expected cold air advection for at least half of the night. Model guidance shows this feature moving through the north central CONUS overnight and tomorrow, eventually dragging a trough axis through the region on Sunday.
358 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 A weak cold front will enter NW OK by 09Z Sunday and progress southeastward.
328 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Trough associated with a low pressure system along the US/Canadian border expected to shift through the Northern Plains this evening. Behind the trough, very strong gradient winds just above the surface. A few locations (mainly exposed areas along the Buffalo Ridge) may approach wind gusts of 50 knots. As long as the atmosphere remains mixed after 06Z, temperatures shouldn't rise appreciably on Sunday as cold air advection cools the lower portions of the atmosphere.
330 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 It has been a pleasant, sunny day across the region as the upper trough that was responsible for the recent wet and cloudy weather pushes off to the east. This will come as lows will drop into the lower 30s across the northeast and mid 30s elsewhere. Quiet weather will continue tomorrow as high pressure will remain overhead.
430 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 A secondary, northern stream cold front will move across central NC this afternoon and evening, allowing plentiful clearing and gusty winds to persist through Sunday morning.
/GG/ It has been a pleasant, sunny day across the region as the upper trough that was responsible for the recent wet and cloudy weather pushes off to the east. This will come as lows will drop into the lower 30s across the northeast and mid 30s elsewhere. Quiet weather will continue tomorrow as high pressure will remain overhead.
Cold front pushed through our area by late afternoon producing a few strong to severe storms this morning.
457 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Trough associated with a low pressure system along the US/Canadian border expected to shift through the Northern Plains this evening. Behind the trough, very strong gradient winds just above the surface. A few locations (mainly exposed areas along the Buffalo Ridge) may approach wind gusts of 50 knots. As long as the atmosphere remains mixed after 06Z, temperatures shouldn't rise appreciably on Sunday as cold air advection cools the lower portions of the atmosphere.
/Issued 304 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020/ Not a cloud to be seen across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon as high pressure prevails across the region. Abundant sunshine will be the rule on Sunday even with a cold front moving through the region. Temperatures are slated to rise above normal levels despite the cold frontal passage.
As of 20Z Saturday afternoon midlevel ridging was overspreading the Plains with the departing trough to the east and a second trough across the Rockies. With the deepening lee trough, a 40-50 LLJ is progged to develop through the evening hours. This will also set the stage for a mild night -- for January standards -- with lows only reaching the lower to middle 30s. The aforementioned lee trough will swing through the CWA late tonight into Sunday morning, shifting winds to the north.
645 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 A secondary, northern stream cold front will move across central NC this afternoon and evening, allowing plentiful clearing and gusty winds to persist through Sunday morning.
338 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Low pressure over New England has a cold front to Florida this afternoon, with high pressure centered over the Texas-Louisiana border. Upper trough axis has just moved east of the local area in the last few hours. Skies have cleared across the area, with cooler and drier air replacing the very moist air from most of the work week. Afternoon temperatures are in the lower and middle 60s, with dew points mainly in the mid and upper 30s.
930 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 A cold front will move east of central NC tonight.
416 PM MST Sat Jan 4 2020 Current surface map has trof/warm front moving into the central Dakotas. with cold front moving through central Montana. with cold front moving across western South Dakota later this evening.
347 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Upper level ridge moving across the state today becomes a bit more zonal and we transition to west southwest flow aloft, with a mild trough expected to progress through tonight. An associated cold front looks to go through the Dakotas late this evening into the overnight hours. The main concern overnight will be the high wind potential. All but a couple models are having trouble showing enough mixing to translate to the surface, but with steep low level lapse rates and CAA behind the front, we should have enough mechanical mixing to put us around the advisory range, especially in the higher elevation areas.
334 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 High pressure will extend across the region through Monday.
1036 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Trough associated with a low pressure system along the US/Canadian border expected to shift through the Northern Plains this evening. Behind the trough, very strong gradient winds just above the surface. A few locations (mainly exposed areas along the Buffalo Ridge) may approach wind gusts of 50 knots. As long as the atmosphere remains mixed after 06Z, temperatures shouldn't rise appreciably on Sunday as cold air advection cools the lower portions of the atmosphere.
This will be the trend overnight as minimums fall into the lower to middle 30s through sunrise. /GG/ Prior discussion below: It has been a pleasant, sunny day across the region as the upper trough that was responsible for the recent wet and cloudy weather pushes off to the east. This will come as lows will drop into the lower 30s across the northeast and mid 30s elsewhere. Quiet weather will continue tomorrow as high pressure will remain overhead.
Surface winds should gradually back to the south or southwest tonight, ahead of our next cold front that will approach Sunday morning. Look for overnight lows to fall into the lower 30s or upper 20s. For tomorrow, the previously mentioned cold front will shift across southern Missouri bringing about another wind shift and some slightly cooler air. This disturbance will also pass through in dry fashion, forcing a second cold front through the Ozarks.
1051 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 Currently - A cold front is pushing southeastward through the Keys this evening. Short Term Update - Fresh northwesterly breezes will continue overnight while gradually veering northerly in wake of the cold front passage. Expect temperatures to gradually descend into the lower 60s and dew points sliding into the 40s. Fresh northwest to north breezes will continue to pump across Keys waters overnight due to a recent cold front passage. In wake of the earlier cold front passage, expect moderate to fresh and gusty northwest to north winds at island terminals overnight.
A fast moving low pressure system moving across southern Canada Monday will bring another round of patchy light snow to the northern and western sections of Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday.
242 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020 Yesterdays passing sharp upper trough now well east. but incoming upper ridge will weaken rapidly as next upper trough already expected to pass early Tue. Wed/most of Thu setting up with dry conditions as SFC/LL highs and upper ridges work across the region. Both models show a deep upper trough coming out of the desert southwest by early Sat but GFS remains more aggressive moving this trough east. This brings a warm front and another round of pcpn to the area Mon/Mon night. ending early Tue when a cold front swings across.
1245 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 High pressure will extend across the region through Monday.
The top of the inversion is just cold enough to support the snow, but after the trough passes, the saturated layer will fall well below the snow growth level. Snow showers will dissipate over the ridges this morning. A fast moving trough will cross the region this evening, increasing snow shower chances. Winds behind the trough remain westerly, which will limit the coverage of lake enhanced snow showers. Most, if not all, of the snow accumulation would be focused on the ridges and along/north of the I-80 corridor. High pressure will return dry weather Monday and even allow for sunshine.
A dry cold front will result in a wind shift to the north and northeast Sunday. A dry cold front will result in a wind shift to the north and northeast Sunday. Highs Sunday still look to reach the 60s for most, with upper 50s possible in the higher terrain and northern Lea county, and lower 70s across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande Valley.
Larger trough then takes shape across western part of the country by the middle of the week.
1045 PM MST Sat Jan 4 2020 Went ahead and extended the high wind warning so that everyone expires at 3 am. Temperatures will be cooler with highs near 30 north to the low 40s south - still above normal.
As high pressure builds into the area on Monday, winds will be significantly lighter, and while temperatures cool, they will still be well above early January normals.
1007 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020 High pressure will extend across the region through Monday.
The effects of strong northwesterly flow and fairly strong radiational cooling overnight will allow lows to drop into the lower 30s and upper 20s by the early morning hours. Weak ridging will try to build eastward on Sunday, though flow aloft will generally remain zonal. Winds will back to the south during the day as high pressure moves eastward along the Gulf coast. The combination of westerly flow aloft and weak WAA will help temps rise to seasonal norms with highs warming into the lower to mid 50s. That combined with the weak forcing associated with the trough will keep showers light and the coverage scattered at best.
310 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 A cold front will move east of central NC this morning.
1015 PM MST Sat Jan 4 2020 Current surface map has trof/warm front moving into the central Dakotas. with cold front moving through central Montana. with cold front moving across western South Dakota later this evening.
Dry conditions are expected through Monday before a weak trough pulls in moisture and a slight chance of PoPs with minimal accumulations. 0230Z temperatures were generally in the low to mid 30s. Westerly winds will begin to relax over the next few hours as well with ridging building in.
A quick moving trough of low pressure will sweep across Indiana today. High pressure is expected to arrive in the area tonight.
146 AM MST Sun Jan 5 2020 Latest upper level and satellite analysis shows cloud cover moving around a ridge over the Rockies. Tonight a cold front will move across the forecast area from the northwest. The low level jet will be 50-60 KTs overnight as well. This is due to an Upper-level ridge over the High Plains.
Tight pressure gradient continues early this morning between the high pressure center and cold front moving into the W Atlantic for some cooler wind chill values of 40-45 around sunrise.
1007 PM MST Sat Jan 4 2020 One last update for the evening to cancel the High Wind Warning up in Converse county tonight. up to 40-45kts at the lowest gate. Have another upper low tracking across northern Wyoming.
A cold front is currently working its way across northwest Kansas. Eventually, a high pressure center will shift southward later today with winds weakening as it does. For tonight, high pressure will continue to remain in control. A dry airmass and light winds will allow lows to fall into the lower 20s.
Dry high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
245 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 A cold front will move east of central NC this morning.
The latest surface surface analysis depicted a warm front extending across western Iowa and Missouri with a cold front over the Plains. This warm front will move northeast across the CWA early this morning followed quickly by the cold front this afternoon. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s under increasing clouds ahead of the next trough.
Strong, gusty winds tonight will lower this morning, becoming light and variable in the evening hours Sunday as the center of low level high pressure moves over our area.
1050 PM MST Sat Jan 4 2020 One last update for the evening to cancel the High Wind Warning up in Converse county tonight. up to 40-45kts at the lowest gate. Have another upper low tracking across northern Wyoming.
Elsewhere, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 40s. Skies will clear quickly after sundown and the pressure gradient should relax as high pressure settles into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will fall to around the freezing mark across much of the area. The exception will be along and west of the Mississippi River, where weak return flow may begin as high pressure slides south and east. Monday will be slightly cool with highs in the low to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies.
A dry cold front brings cooler weather back to the area on Monday, with a stronger system possible later in the week. Above normal temperatures will continue on Sunday, with a dry cold front approaching the region. The brief period of warmer weather comes to an end Monday, as the dry cold front crosses the area. A dry cold front on Monday switches the winds back to the northeast and east, with 5 to 15 degrees of cooling.
/Issued 809 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2020/ Cold front has moved south of the CWA. High pressure will build in from the west. Skies are clearing from NW to SE but there are some mid level clouds streaming in around the back side of the main low pressure center. May see some isolated areas of freezing or frozen precipitation across the N GA maintains as temps fall into the evening hours. Given strong cold air advection and cold 850mb temps, some light snow showers will be possible in the higher elevations through midnight before the remaining moisture pushes NE of the state.
The mid level trough axis located over our eastern cwa this afternoon will shift east tonight. At the surface, the pressure gradient will slacken tonight as high pressure drifts by to our south. A dry cold frontal passage will occur later Sunday/Sunday night. Behind it, weak high pressure builds in on Monday. Temperatures will average above normal, with highs in the lower 50s on Sunday, and then a few degrees cooler behind the front on Monday.
257 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 Fair but windy weather is expected today in the wake of departing low pressure. Another weak low pressure system will pass through the region on Monday delivering some light snow. More potent low pressure may affect Maine and New Hampshire midweek, although it is very possible it will go out to sea.
At lower elevations, a dry cold front associated with this system will usher breezy north winds into the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert Sunday afternoon/evening. North winds will become more gusty Monday as the plunge down the lower Colorado River valley.
1054 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020 Quiet weather today as ridging builds in, but a short wave trough will pass over the region Sunday morning. If this holds true, then freezing drizzle will occur.
Overnight lows should be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area, which is similar to or a few degrees cooler than what was observed last night. Slightly cooler temperatures for tonight are consistent with the lack of cloud cover and expected cold air advection for at least half of the night. Model guidance shows this feature moving through the north central CONUS overnight and tomorrow, eventually dragging a trough axis through the region on Sunday. This feature could bring light rain or a rain/snow mix to parts of the area on Monday evening, but the higher precipitation chances appear to be farther east.
100 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 A cold front will move east of central NC this morning.
Snow showers will dissipate this morning, with most of the lingering activity impacting the ridges and I-80 corridor. A fast moving trough will cross the region this evening, increasing snow shower chances. Winds behind the trough remain westerly, which will limit the coverage of lake enhanced snow showers. Most, if not all, of the snow accumulation would be focused on the ridges and along/north of the I-80 corridor. High pressure will return dry weather Monday and even allow for sunshine.
218 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 Dry high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
05/06Z High pressure and clear skies continue across the area. High pressure and clear skies continue across the area. A quick moving mid level trough and associated surface reflection will approach late in the period.
Non- diurnal warming in temperatures has also been noted ahead of the front, and combined with above freezing temperatures yesterday, may be enough to crust over the snowpack and avoid blowing/drifting snow issues. The exception to this could be from near Brookings southeastward down the Buffalo Ridge where snow pack still may be favorable to move around and thus mention of blowing/drifting snow in the forecast still seems appropriate.
427 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 A fast moving but weak cold front will bring scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon along with windy conditions.
High temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, mainly in the 30s to lower 40s.
Winds aloft are quite strong, but the question is how much these will mix down before the winds aloft decrease and the low level pressure gradient weakens. High pressure at the surface should build in from the west tonight, with winds becoming light. This will allows low temperatures to fall into the lower and mid 20s at most locations.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler thanks to the front that moved through with highs only in the 30s for most.
CAA behind last night's cold front will see high temperatures this afternoon much cooler than yesterday/last night, with afternoon highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Down along the I-10 corridor temperatures are in the low to mid 50s. we will remain under the influence of high pressure to our east and this will give us southerly winds as skies will remain clear.
The High Wind Warning has been cancelled as of early this morning.
As the sun rises, surface winds will increase and the intensity of the low level jet will decrease, and LLWS concerns will be gone by late morning. Larger trough then takes shape across western part of the country by the middle of the week.
427 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020 High pressure is currently over Louisiana and moving eastward. Temperatures currently are trending a bit colder so bumped the low temperatures down a few degrees. Southwest Mississippi might actually briefly get near or at freezing.
Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for the start of the workweek as a short- wave ridge develops over the region on Monday.
Temperatures are hovering near freezing and dew points are just below freezing, so surface moisture will continue to make frost likely for parts of the area. This will be the trend overnight as minimums fall into the lower to middle 30s through sunrise. /GG/ Prior discussion below: It has been a pleasant, sunny day across the region as the upper trough that was responsible for the recent wet and cloudy weather pushes off to the east. This will come as lows will drop into the lower 30s across the northeast and mid 30s elsewhere. Quiet weather will continue tomorrow as high pressure will remain overhead.
This system is blocked from rich moisture but will still promote Cascade snow including an inch or so in the higher terrain of Deschutes County. Meanwhile, a stronger north Pacific trough will amplify and tap into deeper moisture from a central Pacific upper low. Communities in the higher elevations of the WA Cascades may see a few inches of snow, but snow totals will rapidly climb towards 1-2ft along slopes of the mountains.
High pressure has been building over northeast Colorado over the last couple hours which has reduced the surface pressure differences across the state.
This wave will track north area today but will push its associated cold front through the forecast area through the morning hours.
610 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 A cold front will move offshore this morning.
Strong high pressure centered over the north central/northwest GOMEX will maintain a diminishing but steady N/NW breeze thru the day as the ridge drifts toward the FL Peninsula.
Temperatures are hovering near freezing, but temperatures should quickly warm after sunrise. Temperatures and dew points are also hovering near freezing, so frost can be expected through the morning as well. Temperatures will quickly warm as the sun comes up, and the return of southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures tonight mostly in the 40s. Some patchy fog may be possible again, as warmer and more humid air moves in. High pressure then begins to build back into the southeast, and mild weather will continue through mid week with high temperatures on a slow climb.
305 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020 An upper trough was racing through the northern plains early this morning with a weak frontal push southward crossing the Texas Panhandle, expected through our entire area by mid or late this morning.
An upper trough associated with this system was approaching the east coast. Nearly unlimited sun and somewhat of a warming trend should help boost high temperatures into the low/mid 50s, a bit above average highs of around 51 degrees. A somewhat warmer trend should be felt for what it is worth, with lows cooling into the mid 30s. Under more clouds than sun, the work week/Monday will be a bit warmer with highs warming into the mid/upper 50s.
636 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020 A fast moving but weak cold front will bring scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon along with windy conditions.
/issued 305 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020/ An upper trough was racing through the northern plains early this morning with a weak frontal push southward crossing the Texas Panhandle, expected through our entire area by mid or late this morning.
/issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020/ The region currently on the edge of an upper ridge centered over Mexico. A weak upper trough moves across the area on Monday then high pressure returns behind it.
Despite the passage of a cold front today, a low level thermal ridge will slide across the region, with cooling behind the front lagging until tonight and Monday. High pressure will then build into the area tonight and be the main weather influence, with clear skies and lows in the upper 20s.
348 AM MST Sun Jan 5 2020 Low stratus and fog, locally dense, continues to impact the lower valleys of east-central Utah east into the Grand Valley in western Colorado. WAA pattern arrives Monday evening with snowfall shutting down across our northern mountains with flat ridging building over the Great Basin.