Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
211 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Fresh east to southeast lower tropospheric flow around high pressure off the southeast U. Latest guidance has held the deeper moisture over the western Straits with ridging holding off the southeast U.
130 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 Upper trough is deepening as it digs into the central states, with moisture wrapping into NE and southern SD. Surface winds are light and southeasterly, and temperatures are rising into the lower 60s. Skies will clear from west to east tonight, with clouds and possibly some showers lingering longest over south central SD, as the upper low gradually shifts east. Lows will be in the 30s to mid 40s - staying above freezing on the plains. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS Wednesday, a warming trend will begin.
314 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure over the region through mid week keeps us dry with temperatures fairly close to late May averages.
442 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with the chance of rain beginning Wednesday through the end of the work week. Dry weather will be maintained through the night with departing high pressure and still-present mid-level ridging. Rain chances are still progged to increase late Wednesday as ern CONUS ridging erodes and srn Plains low pressure develops along the lower MS River Valley, with further warming and a humidity increase expected across wrn zones especially.
217 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 A trough and upper low have formed near Raton Pass over southern CO this morning. Additionally, an area of channeled vorticity will be over western portions, feeding into the base of the trough.
Cu is thick enough in the higher terrain of lakes country in west- and north-central MN to squeeze out some sprinkles through the rest of the afternoon. Transient large scale upper level ridging is expected to fall into place following the midweek system. This, in conjunction with high pressure building in at the surface will yield a warming trend for the latter half of the week.
143 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure with mainly dry conditions through tonight. Warm frontal boundary lifts north Wednesday. Cold front by late week. High pressure across the area today, with drier conditions. Frontal boundary to our south will lift north on Wednesday as a deep upper low/trough takes hold across the central U. Minor changes to the forecast with a warm frontal boundary lifting slowly north across the OH River Wednesday morning into the evening hours.
Convection looks to linger offshore through the afternoon before drier air moves in as ridging works in aloft. Currently have high temps in the low to mid 80s.
527 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 Upper trough is deepening as it digs into the central states, with moisture wrapping into NE and southern SD. Surface winds are light and southeasterly, and temperatures are rising into the lower 60s. Skies will clear from west to east tonight, with clouds and possibly some showers lingering longest over south central SD, as the upper low gradually shifts east. Lows will be in the 30s to mid 40s - staying above freezing on the plains. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS Wednesday, a warming trend will begin.
Upper trough digging into the central High Plains with east surface wind has lead to widespread precipitation across much of the area. Amounts have been on the lower side of expectations and some breaks are becoming more common, though south-central Kansas has seen some modest shallow redevelopment as of 19Z. Isentropic upglide weakens this evening with mid-levels drying, but moisture profiles increase late tonight into Wednesday as the upper trough/low moves in.
Winds however should pick up during the late evening and overnight, ranging in the 5-15 mph range with some higher gusts, especially in the higher terrain.
Upper ridge centered to our SE with a closed low over the Central Plains, providing a SW flow aloft over our region. The Midlands and CSRA will be in between high pressure aloft offshore and a slowly approaching upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley. A wedge of cooler air will slowly erode on Wednesday as a boundary lifts northward across the region.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track for a quiet night, with lows mostly in the lower 70s, and a few upper 60s in rural areas, and some high clouds building in. The ridge axis of the Atlantic high will remain north of the local waters, continuing SE flow and generally favorable boating conditions.
Warming temperatures and light winds under high pressure are expected through midweek.
624 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Summary: High pressure over the Great Lakes with diurnally driven cumulus field over the region this afternoon occasionally producing some sprinkles.
641 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance High pressure that was in overhead early this morning has been slowly shifting east through the day as an area of low pressure takes shape in the southern plains. Widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as the low pressure over the southern plains quickly moves northeast to Northern Lake Michigan. Warmer weather is expected for the Memorial Day weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds into the eastern U.
824 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with the chance of rain beginning Wednesday through the end of the work week. Dry weather will be maintained through the night with departing high pressure and still-present mid-level ridging. Rain chances are still progged to increase late Wednesday as ern CONUS ridging erodes and srn Plains low pressure develops along the lower MS River Valley, with further warming and a humidity increase expected across wrn zones especially.
A weak probable warm frontal boundary was located over the southern part of east Tennessee. Temperatures are in the 60s to the lower 70s across the area.
747 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure will keep conditions dry with near normal temperatures through Wednesday.
959 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High clouds slowly on the increase as moisture begins to advect north into the area well ahead of developing southern Plains low pressure. High Pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will slowly move east tonight.
An upper ridge will build into the area on Wednesday. High temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer with lower valley locations reaching well into the 80s.
642 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front comes through the region tonight. Convection looks to linger offshore through the afternoon before drier air moves in as ridging works in aloft. Currently have high temps in the low to mid 80s.
Clear skies with breezy to windy conditions across southeast Arizona this afternoon as the area remains in northwesterly flow on the backside of a trough pushing through eastern New Mexico. As the aforementioned trough pushes to the east, it will be replaced by mid/upper level ridging building into Arizona.
735 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Cool high pressure over New England will ridge down into our area through Wednesday. Low pressure over northern Texas will strengthen as it moves northeast toward the Great Lakes with a cold front approaching our region from the west.
751 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the pattern through Wednesday night with seasonable temperatures and light breezes developing off the ocean.
The upper level low pressure system will slowly move into the central plains tonight and Wednesday. From later tonight and Wednesday high pressure ridge aloft will be over Colorado with a moderate northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday as 700mb temperatures rise to +7C and corresponding afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
7 inches, but PWAT values quickly decrease for areas further east in closer proximity to strong mid level ridging off the southeast US coast. This high pressure will keep a persistent SE wind flow over the area with the seabreeze developing along the west coast each afternoon and pushing inland. 7 inches, which will keep rain and storm chances on the low side (20-30 percent). By Wednesday, an area of low pressure develops over the central U.
A warm front is in the process of lifting northward through Middle Tennessee, and we're already starting to see some cells appear along the Alabama state line.
630 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure will keep conditions dry with near normal temperatures through Wednesday.
The upper low nudges east/southeast from the CO/KS border toward Wichita as an area of increased fgen rotates around the northern periphery. Despite northerly flow at H85, an encroaching upper ridge from the west results in WAA. The upper synoptic pattern undergoes a change with a transient ridge replacing the low over the Plains, leading to northwest flow then quasi-zonal. Later in the weekend, a deep upper low dives south along the Pacific Coast as the longwave trough approaches the Baja region. Nebraska becomes entrenched in southwest flow aloft ahead of an intensifying jet and on the western periphery of an Eastern US ridge.
Upper level low pressure will approach Pennsylvania late this week, then slowly lift across the region over the upcoming weekend. The upper low is likely to exit the area by Memorial Day, as anomalous upper level ridging expands eastward from the Ohio Valley. The cloud cover and a flow off the cool Atlantic should hold temperatures a few deg F above normal across Northern PA and a few Deg cooler than normal over the Lower Susq Valley - or within 1-2F of 50.
Some cooler temps dipping into the upper 40s could filter in behind the front late tonight west of highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma For the update. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Tuesday) The upper level low pressure system responsible for the rain will drift slowly east over the next couple days, maintaining rain chances across the area, especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
747 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Eroding high pressure will support the return of warm and humid conditions with the chance of rain beginning Wednesday through the end of the work week. Dry weather will be maintained through the night with departing high pressure and still-present mid-level ridging. Rain chances are still progged to increase late Wednesday as ern CONUS ridging erodes and srn Plains low pressure develops along the lower MS River Valley, with further warming and a humidity increase expected across wrn zones especially.
544 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022 A trough and upper low have formed near Raton Pass over southern CO this morning. Additionally, an area of channeled vorticity will be over western portions, feeding into the base of the trough.
This high continues to generate moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A broad ribbon of lower level moisture is wrapping around the southwestern periphery of the high. The combination of the above has resulted in isolated to widely scattered showers and rare thunderstorms on the western half of the forecast area with portions of the Lower Keys occasionally affected. Meanwhile, the lower level drier air and reduced instability will expand westward across our forecast area. Dew points will reside in the lower 70s. A ridge off the southeast United States coast will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters.
An area of low pressure located just northeast of the region will keep temperatures near normal today with mostly clear skies.
615 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 A low pressure system continues to slowly make an eastward progression. Rainfall reports have ranged from one inch to over seven inches with the highest values in Harper and Sumner counties. Precipitation and cloud cover aided in temperatures to stay in the low 50s to low 60s.
1034 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Cool high pressure over New England will ridge down into our area through Wednesday. Low pressure over northern Texas will strengthen as it moves northeast toward the Great Lakes with a cold front approaching our region from the west.
151 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 A Heat Advisory is in effect for the lower elevations today as temperatures warm up to around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Precipitation is expected to expand Nwrd in response to large scale forcing for ascent overspreading the state from an approaching highly amplified trough. The aforementioned upper trough will slowly pivot across the state, prolonging PoPs through Thursday morning. By Thursday, the upper level trough, which should become a cut off low, will move E of the state with large scale forcing for subsidence overspreading the region. High pressure will move into the region which will bring drier air and much cooler temperatures to AR.
Moist pattern with SWly flow aloft and upper low to the west initially over western KS expected to continue moving slowly east. As upper trough approaches, this plume will shift east into the state by late Wed night but more so on Thurs. SNELSON A cold front will be ushered into the area at the start of the forecast period on Thursday as an upper low pushes eastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase during the day Thursday as the amplifying low/trough shifts eastward.
219 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022 An upper low over western Kansas early this morning will continue to pull away with an upper ridge beginning to pull into the region. This ridge will be in place over the Rockies Thursday. Not out of the question, that a weak disturbance moving up and around the ridge could result in very isolated convection across the extreme northwest late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonal today, and about 10 degrees above average on Thursday as a thermal ridge will be over the forecast area.
311 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 500 mb trough/upper low over Oklahoma with flow south to north into Minnesota. This trough/low will track east the next 24 hours. Strength of downstream ridging will likely play a key indicator in moisture advection within the lower levels, and subsequently instability and severe risk.
A large low pressure system gradually moving through the central CONUS will reach the eastern edge of the Mississippi Valley by Thursday. As it crawls east, the western Atlantic ridge will move east as well, however it appears as though the tongue of dry air around its southern periphery will still have a strong influence on the sensible weather across south Florida through the period. Expect east coast showers the first half of the day where pockets of moisture lift over the slightly cooler land areas adjacent the Gulf stream. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower or middle 90s along the west coast.
Georgia remains sandwiched between high pressure centered over the South Atlantic Bight and a deepening trough over the southern Plains, funneling tropical moisture into the region. Trough axis will shift eastward over the next 48 hours, but keep enhanced moisture plume over the state. Though some convection has fired overnight and early this morning, the bulk of the precip activity is expected late this afternoon through Thursday as the trough approaches.
249 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure will remain in place east of New England through midweek. An upper level low will approach Pennsylvania late this week, then slowly lift across the region over the upcoming weekend.
Closed mid/upper low will move slowly east-southeast from the central high Plains today into the Ozarks by midday Thursday. The short term models are in general agreement in developing an area of rain on the east side of the low across the Flint Hills and eastern Kansas later this morning into the early afternoon. However, the band of slow moving rain which develops on the back side of the low this evening in the mid-level trowal stream is expected to provide higher rainfall totals across much of central Kansas.
Temps have been right on track today even with the rain moving in and have topped out in the mid to upper 50s farther north and east and the lower 50s elsewhere. Aloft the upper level low to our southwest will continue to slowly move east across the Plains today and tomorrow.
Heavy rainfall will be an increasing threat especially into the afternoon as a much more potent upper trough slides into the area from the west. A highly amplified upper trof over the central states weakens somewhat while progressing slowly into the eastern states through the period. The net result is a cold front which progresses eastward across the lower/mid Mississippi River valley Wednesday night into early Thursday morning then weakens while moving across the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The right entrance region of a substantial 120 knot upper jet on the eastern side of the upper trof aids in the development of a region of strong deep layer lift which shifts eastward across the forecast area between late Wednesday night into early Thursday afternoon.
After a few showers and thunderstorms today, a warmer and drier weather pattern will build into the area overnight tonight through Thursday. Expect a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough moves through. Upper level ridging will build in overnight tonight and tomorrow, bringing warmer and drier weather to the area.
As a low pressure lifts from the Great Plains towards Lake Superior this evening, expect cloud coverage to increase from south to north as the low pressure splits into a northerly and southerly low. The northerly low is progged to move through Upper MI Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing the TROWAL of the low over us from south to north. Given the rainfall amounts, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some ponding of water in a few isolated spots where the highest rainfall rates/the most rainfall occurs. As the low lifts past Upper MI Thursday morning, we could see some light rain showers remain across the area (and possibly a rumble of thunder or two in the east), but they should dwindle as the day goes on.
Generally warm and humid conditions persist across our forecast area downstream of this low pressure system, and each impulse will trigger another round of showers and storms to move through the area.
1239 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Summary: High pressure over the Great Lakes with diurnally driven cumulus field over the region this afternoon occasionally producing some sprinkles.
1125 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure remains in control into midweek before shifting east on Thursday.
204 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022 Current surface map places low across eastern Kansas with weak high pressure across the Dakotas. Scattered showers associated with Central Plains upper low remain south and east of the forecast area. Upper level ridge builds across the Northern Plains today and Thursday with mid level subsidence and drying low levels.
Upper trough digging into the central High Plains with east surface wind has lead to widespread precipitation across much of the area. Amounts have been on the lower side of expectations and some breaks are becoming more common, though south-central Kansas has seen some modest shallow redevelopment as of 19Z. Isentropic upglide weakens this evening with mid-levels drying, but moisture profiles increase late tonight into Wednesday as the upper trough/low moves in. Overall however precipitation chances have increased with a slower trend in the low's passage in the blocky flow regime. Additional precipitation tonight through Thursday, however, looks to be generally less than an inch, and with amounts so far on the low side, the flooding threat is decreasing, but some potential for rivers reaching flood stage lingers in much of east-central Kansas, and will keep the Flood Watch going there.
1137 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure to our northeast will provide fair, but mainly cloudy weather for Central PA into Thursday. Upper level low pressure will approach Pennsylvania late this week, then slowly lift across the region over the upcoming weekend.
Early morning satellite imagery captures a middle to upper level cloud deck moving in overhead associated with an upper level ridge building in from the west. These clouds will continue to track further north and east as the main axis of this ridge moves onshore from the Pacific, with much warmer temperatures and clear sunny skies for Wednesday and Thursday.
234 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure hangs on to keep conditions generally dry today through Thursday, despite on-an-off clouds.
404 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 High pressure remains in control of the area through Thursday.
1118 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High clouds slowly on the increase as moisture begins to advect north into the area well ahead of developing southern Plains low pressure. High Pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will slowly move east tonight. The parent trough associated with this feature will track slowly east northeast over the next few days. A couple of waves of energy emulating out of this trough will track northeast into the western Great Lakes (one Wednesday and one Thursday).
Upper ridge centered to our SE with a closed low over the Central Plains, providing a SW flow aloft over our region. The Midlands and CSRA will be in between high pressure aloft offshore and a slowly approaching upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley. A wedge of cooler air will slowly erode on Wednesday as a boundary lifts northward across the region. The upper level trough progresses a bit farther to the east on Thursday.
All of these showers and thunderstorms are associated with an approaching cold front (currently located along a Longview to Pleasanton to Eagle Pass line) and associated 500 mb low swinging through the Lone Star State. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across the BRO CWFA today and early tonight, with all activity rapidly ending later tonight, and gone on Thursday in the wake of cold front and mid-level low.
842 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022 Temperatures slowly warm over the next few days as high pressure returns to the region. A warm front moving into the Inland Northwest is producing wet roads over Stevens Pass. Dew point depressions are quite larger over the basin with temperatures still in the low to mid 60s. The mountains over northeast Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle will see 30% to 50% chance for measurable rainfall come Wednesday morning as the the warm front increases moist isentropic ascent over this portion of the region by this time. With moisture mostly remaining aloft, most of the lowlands will just see thick clouds, if not some sprinkles, through Wednesday. /SVH 00Z TAFS: A warm front will move through the region tonight.
409 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 Dry weather will continue through Thursday along with temperatures just slightly warmer than seasonal normals. Unsettled weather returns later Thursday through the weekend as a low pressure system moves over the Northeast. The near term portion of the forecast for today through Thursday will continue to feature dry weather with temperatures slightly warmer than seasonal normals. A surface warm front will lift just north and west of our forecast area as a low pressure system lifts north through the Great Lakes region. Our region will remain in the warm sector of this aforementioned low pressure system on Thursday as the low lifts northeastward into Canada. A closed upper low upstream of our forecast area will be responsible for a showery period starting Thursday night.
Meteorological Analysis: An upper low currently located over southeast Colorado will meander eastward along the Kansas / Oklahoma border through tomorrow. Showers and storms are ongoing around much of the eastern half of this low (affecting the eastern half of Oklahoma and southern Oklahoma / north Texas) with a dry slot extending up into northwest Oklahoma. Periods of showers will occur tonight and through the day Wednesday as the upper low center passes over Oklahoma.
1118 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the pattern through Wednesday night with seasonable temperatures and light breezes developing off the ocean.