Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
311 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Deep layer high pressure centered to our west will remain the dominant influence on our weather once again today. The low-level synoptic wind flow will remain weak enough for both sea breezes to develop and move inland, bringing a focus for showers and thunderstorms to mainly the interior and western portions of the east coast metro areas. The deep layer ridge gradually retrogrades away from Florida allowing the steering flow to become more easterly with time. A deeper feed of moisture looks to work into the area by late week in association with a trough of low pressure suggesting we may end the week on a wetter note.
We'll be under strong high pressure with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with temps near to slightly above normal and low relative humidities. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and a bit warmer tomorrow night as a warm front will start to bring rain showers to the North Country. Monday night a warm front will start to lift into northern New York and should bring rainfall to the region but the most active period occurs heading into Tuesday.
Aloft, the base of H500 troughing resides across the central Plains this morning with amplified upper ridging across the eastern states. Both of these features will gradually shift east with the upper trough lifting north of the Great Lakes by the end of the period. The ejecting upper trough will encourage a Pacific front currently to our northwest to sag southeastward. As the influence of upper troughing wanes over the next 18 to 24 hours, this front will become quasi-stationary across central to southern portions of the state before washing out. The highest probabilities will initially exist to our south and west, but gradually increase across much of central and eastern AR through the end of the period.
An isolated warning isn't out of the question, but better chance for strong to severe storms will come late in the morning through the afternoon mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor as CAPE and Bulk Shear values become more favorable and the mid level trough axis becomes more negatively tilted.
254 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently lies over the Desert Southwest and is drifting north into the Intermountain West over Nevada. A large closed upper low off the coast of British Columbia is drifting south. The system moves to the east this evening and an upper ridge builds into the forecast area on Tuesday with mainly dry weather.
Precip should remain in the Panhandle region this morning as the trough passes. Tomorrow, we'll see a zonal pattern transition into a more southwesterly flow as an upper low drops in from the Gulf of Alaska to the coastal waters of WA/OR.
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper level low bringing an area of light rain to west central MN will quickly exit to the east this morning with rainfall amounts generally two tenths of an inch or less. 00Z Wed - 12Z Thu Mid level thermal ridge moves east of the area Wed night. Thu - Sun Long wave ridge from the Northern Plains to the Desert Southwest will build through the period. Ridge building will temper after Sat as short waves will move over the ridge.
242 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 An upper level trough of low pressure was approaching the Ozarks early this morning.
1053 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 An upper low is crossing northeast Colorado into western Nebraska while northwest low level flow persists today across much the Dakotas. Weak ridging will take over late tonight and tomorrow morning behind the departing upper low, bringing a small break in the precipitation. Slightly warmer temps will work their way into the region, with highs 5-10 degrees warmer than today. Large scale ridging will develop across the region Tuesday and persist through the remainder of the week. Drier weather and warmer temperatures are expected.
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Short wave lifting out of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley brushes across the forecast area today. Weak mid level ridge has broken down by Tuesday night with zonal flow aloft over the top of the high center in the GOMEX.
331 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 The slow moving, persistent upper level low pressure will finally shift east of the area today. As the wave shifts east weak upper level ridging will move through with a weak upper level jet/trough shifting into central SD. One will be roughly along and east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN on the back edge of the upper level wave and the other will be in central SD just ahead of the next incoming jet max.
Weak upper level ridge of high pressure combined with weaker onshore pressure gradients resulted in some very warm temperatures today across far interior sections of the forecast area, including highs in the mid 90s across the Antelope Valley and SLO county interior valleys.
On Tuesday, a weak, broad trough is expected to translate across the southern and central plains helping to generate thunderstorms over a broad area by Tuesday evening. Beyond Tuesday, an upper ridge slowly builds to the west of Oklahoma helping to suppress thunderstorms in the moist airmass and leading to hot and humid conditions more typical of late June with low precipitation chances the second half of the week.
/issued 741 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ Stacked ridging over the region to continue to suppress summertime convection while keeping the hot conditions in place this evening, tonight and through Monday.
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers and storms return today and tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. This energy will pull a surface cold front eastward, reaching my western edge by early evening.
We'll be under strong high pressure with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with temps near to slightly above normal and low relative humidities. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and a bit warmer tomorrow night as a warm front will start to bring rain showers to the North Country. Monday night a warm front will start to lift into northern New York and should bring rainfall to the region but the most active period occurs heading into Tuesday. Frontal/trough boundary and associated shower activity then exit east Tuesday evening leaving a largely dry night under partly cloudy skies and temperatures from 55 to 65.
245 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A drier airmass will continue to advect southeast through the morning across central and southeast Kansas in the wake of the departing upper trof and surface front. However, a surface trof/weak cold front will settle south into far northern Kansas Tuesday evening and looks to be the focus for convection toward or after sunset.
On Monday, areas east of I-29 will see rain linger through the morning hours as the low pressure system exits to the east. Temperatures will be just below average in the high 70s and low 80s. Westerly flow aloft will transition to a building upper- level ridge by mid-week.
1252 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers and storms return today and tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. Moisture associated with the upper level wave does not really saturate to the lowest layer of the atmosphere until close to dawn. This energy will pull a surface cold front eastward, reaching my western edge by early evening.
/issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ Impressive upper level trough, currently over eastern CO, will swing through the CWA today. The associated Pacific cold front, that began its southward progression through the FA early this morning, has stalled across the southern Rolling Plains with the dryline just through the Rolling Plains. Zonal to northwest flow aloft will set up tomorrow as the upper trough pushes east. As with today, CAPE values will be robust however, Shear values will limited and convective temperatures will be harder to reach thanks to todays cold front. a ridge of high pressure builds overhead with southeasterly surface flow under the ridge drawing in Gulf moisture.
FGC Previous discussion: MAIN AFTERNOON UPDATE: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently lies over the Desert Southwest and is drifting north into the Intermountain West over Nevada. A large closed Low off the coast of British Columbia is drifting south.
241 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Monday, with the trailing cold front coming through early Tuesday. Surface ridging is likely to build into the region during the second half of the week.
A short wave will be lifting out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes Region today, and a weak cold front will be pushing through our area late today and exiting this evening. For Tuesday, surface ridging will be over the southern Appalachians with drier air across the region.
113 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure will gradually build across the Southeast through Tuesday.
Upper-level ridging will gradually build into the area through Wed w/ large scale subsidence greatly limiting rain chances. Warm and dry southwest flow aloft prevails, and with relatively warm temperatures aloft, and limited moisture, maximum temperatures will be warmer than normal with little or no chance of showers or thunderstorms. Minimum temperatures in the Snowy/Sierra Madre Ranges will once again stay above freezing overnight.
259 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper level trough is located over the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska, with zonal flow over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be slightly warmer for areas ahead of the front, and slightly cooler behind the front across northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. Overall, highs will range from the mid 60s in the Black Hills to the low 80s over south central South Dakota. As for storms today, the weak cold front moving through combined with daytime heating with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/KG with PW values around average, will bring some storms today. For Tuesday, large scale ridging develops and persists through the remainder of the week. This will bring considerable changes to the overall weather pattern, resulting in much warmer and drier conditions.
1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 An upper level low with -19C temperatures at h500mb will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska early this evening. This middle-of-the-road approach is warmer than the straight guidance blend by a degree or two. The models continue to show an upper level ridge building into New and old Mexico this week supporting warm weather across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. At the same time, another deep upper level low will move toward and into the Pacific Northwest. The result will be a long wave trof through the desert Southwest.
325 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A mid level ridge of high pressure sprawled across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east into the Atlantic through the first half of the week as a weak surface cold front washes out across the Florida Panhandle. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis is currently oriented across southern and central Florida. This pattern is supporting weak westerly surface flow, with subsidence from the stacked ridging causing warm and stable conditions.
1127 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 The back side of a low pressure system is spinning some clouds and light showers and a couple thunderstorms over northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Took a close look at low temperatures in the Gunnison area tonight but given expected clouds and recent moisture decided to keep lows above freezing.
331 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper trough moving through the region early this morning, which is accompanied by cloudy skies and isolated sprinkles. There may be an hour or two of lingering sprinkles for southwest IA early this morning, but otherwise, a beautiful day is shaping up today with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s, with the highest readings south of the front in southeast NE.
Widespread SHRA continues for most areas through the pre-dawn hours with the highest probability of TS at SE terminals.
As an upper level low pressure system moves over the Pacific Northwest, the flow becomes more southerly across the Northern Rockies.
For Tuesday and onward, a ridge of high pressure aloft begins building over the area.
1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure will gradually build across the Southeast through Tuesday.
the surface cold front stretched from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in Northeast Oklahoma to Northeast Kansas. underneath the upper level low pressure system currently pushing through Eastern Kansas. the cold front will continue to slide through the CWA with clearing conditions expected from northwest to southeast behind the boundary. afternoon temperatures should be able to get back into the low/mid 80s for most locations.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a progressive pattern in place across the Nation with a notable trough sweeping east across the Plains States. A frontal boundary associated with the trough is roughly along I-35 across northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas early this morning, and is responsible for some showers bubbling up across southeast Kansas.
NAMNest pushes that moisture up into the state for the first half of the day, then a couple of spokes rotating around the larger trough developing some convection into the afternoon hours behind the leading front. Midlevel temperatures cool briefly behind the wave as the trough moves through the region. Tomorrow, warm air advection starts up by midday again with southwesterly winds on the back side of a weak ridge axis. By late afternoon, the warming at the sfc under a cooler mid level will result in some steep lapse rates. 500mb in both GFS and ECMWF are building a broad ridge over the center of the country.
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 The slow moving, persistent upper level low pressure will finally shift east of the area today. As the wave shifts east weak upper level ridging will move through with a weak upper level jet/trough shifting into central SD. One will be roughly along and east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN on the back edge of the upper level wave and the other will be in central SD just ahead of the next incoming jet max.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region.
With tonight being warmer than last night, should preclude any temperatures capable of producing frost.
Short wave lifting out of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley brushes across the forecast area today. Weak mid level ridge has broken down by Tuesday night with zonal flow aloft over the top of the high center in the GOMEX.
Low temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in the west, low 60s in the east. dry weather continues under a building upper level ridge.
Warmer temperatures will finally have a chance to advect in from the southwest, but even so the area will still be slightly cooler than normal.
609 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper trough moving through the region early this morning, which is accompanied by cloudy skies and isolated sprinkles. There may be an hour or two of lingering sprinkles for southwest IA early this morning, but otherwise, a beautiful day is shaping up today with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s, with the highest readings south of the front in southeast NE.
Lingering moisture over the higher terrain may lead to a few showers across the Eastern Uinta Mountains in northeast Utah and near the Divide in western Colorado, otherwise we are looking at a dry day. Clear conditions tonight with shrtwv ridge building in on Tuesday. Moisture pooled on the east side of the building ridge should lead to an uptick in convection for at least our Colorado Mountains and possibly across the Uinta's. Still enough moisture in the area to keep a mention of isolated convection over the highest terrain. Temperatures will be returning to more summer-like heat with 90s returning to the lower valleys with 70s and 80s elsewhere.
501 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper level trough is located over the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska, with zonal flow over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be slightly warmer for areas ahead of the front, and slightly cooler behind the front across northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. Overall, highs will range from the mid 60s in the Black Hills to the low 80s over south central South Dakota. As for storms today, the weak cold front moving through combined with daytime heating with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/KG with PW values around average, will bring some storms today. For Tuesday, large scale ridging develops and persists through the remainder of the week. This will bring considerable changes to the overall weather pattern, resulting in much warmer and drier conditions.
736 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers and storms return today and tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. Increased PoPs this evening/tonight given increased confidence of convection occurring ahead of the cold frontal passage.
The ridge aloft is finally breaking down as a short wave moves into the area from Texas.
425 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Drier and much warmer conditions will prevail today as an upper level ridge begins building over the state and dry westerly flow aloft prevails. Temperatures won't quite reach the seasonal normal, but afternoon highs around 80 will sure feel a lot warmer than the weekend that just passed. The mountains and Palmer Divide may see a few showers develop through the afternoon hours, just because there will be strong heating from the sun and the developing upper ridge will not have enough subsidence to quell the diurnal pattern of building thermals.
An upper level trough of low pressure was approaching the Ozarks early this morning.
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper level trough over the northern Plains will move eastward today. Most of the precipitation should shift east of the forecast area by this afternoon, although could not rule out isolated showers/storms mainly across west central and southwest IL until the upper level trough and associated cold mid level temperatures within the trough shift east of the forecast area. Cooler low temperatures can be expected tonight due to a clearing sky this evening and lower surface dew points. GKS Warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday as southwesterly low level winds bring warm air advection to our area.
The hi-res models have come into better agreement with the timing and coverage of the convective line, and with this higher confidence, the PoP/Wx grids will be tweaked slightly to match the models and to raise PoPs.
Cooler temperatures will be likely across the interior by mid week, along with a few showers over Del Norte County. That will change going into midweek as a seasonably cold upper-level trough characterized by 500 mb temperatures near -20 C slowly moves east across the Pacific Northwest.
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A drier airmass will continue to advect southeast through the morning across central and southeast Kansas in the wake of the departing upper trof and surface front. However, a surface trof/weak cold front will settle south into far northern Kansas Tuesday evening and looks to be the focus for convection toward or after sunset.
/issued 311 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ Deep layer high pressure centered to our west will remain the dominant influence on our weather once again today. The low-level synoptic wind flow will remain weak enough for both sea breezes to develop and move inland, bringing a focus for showers and thunderstorms to mainly the interior and western portions of the east coast metro areas. The deep layer ridge gradually retrogrades away from Florida allowing the steering flow to become more easterly with time. A deeper feed of moisture looks to work into the area by late week in association with a trough of low pressure suggesting we may end the week on a wetter note.
High temperatures today back around normal for late June then gradually getting hotter this week as high pressure builds over the region.
617 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper trof will continue to move east toward the Mississippi River valley today.
Upper level low bringing an area of light rain to west central MN will quickly exit to the east this morning with rainfall amounts generally two tenths of an inch or less. 00Z Wed - 12Z Thu Mid level thermal ridge moves east of the area Wed night. Thu - Sun Long wave ridge from the Northern Plains to the Desert Southwest will build through the period. Ridge building will temper after Sat as short waves will move over the ridge.
738 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure will weaken across the area today with light winds this morning becoming westerly in the afternoon and evening, then becoming light again after sunset. Highs are on track to reach into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, with heat index values of 100-105. High pressure will weaken across the area today and Tuesday, then transition back to an easterly flow as high pressure builds in from the NE for the second half of the week.
706 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Thunderstorms will move through today in advance of a cold front. High pressure and dry conditions will work into the region for Tuesday.
534 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers and storms return today and tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. This energy will pull a surface cold front eastward, reaching my western edge by early evening.
928 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Mid level ridge continues across the ern Gulf/SE Gulf with NW flow in the mid levels and a relatively dry mid level airmass across central FL.
An abundance of strong insolation will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s across most island communities.
4 inches across the NE Gulf of Mexico into interior SE Georgia with deep layer ridging across the JAX CWA. Latest guidance shows high pressure aloft that will tend to suppress TSRA development Today, so will go with dry conditions in TAFs.
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A cold front will move through central Indiana tonight as an upper trough pivots across the Great Lakes. Then, high pressure will build in and result in warmer weather with only small thunderstorm chances at times through the weekend. This looks reasonable as the front will be through by then and the trough will be moving away. With drier air moving in behind the front and clearing skies, cooler blend lows in the lower 60s look good. This should bring mostly benign but warmer weather to the area.
Additionally, model soundings indicate that it's possible we haven't quite broken the low-level subsidence inversion yet this afternoon.
1122 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper level trough is located over the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska, with zonal flow over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be slightly warmer for areas ahead of the front, and slightly cooler behind the front across northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. Overall, highs will range from the mid 60s in the Black Hills to the low 80s over south central South Dakota. As for storms today, the weak cold front moving through combined with daytime heating with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/KG with PW values around average, will bring some storms today. For Tuesday, large scale ridging develops and persists through the remainder of the week. This will bring considerable changes to the overall weather pattern, resulting in much warmer and drier conditions.
1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper trough moving through the region early this morning, which is accompanied by cloudy skies and isolated sprinkles. There may be an hour or two of lingering sprinkles for southwest IA early this morning, but otherwise, a beautiful day is shaping up today with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s, with the highest readings south of the front in southeast NE.