Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An increase in shallow moisture combined with decent radiational cooling will increase the potential for ground fog and low stratus especially across NE Florida on the southern size of the low level ridge where slightly deeper easterly flow today advected more moisture inland. Dew pts mixed out into the lower 60s inland this afternoon. Once again trended lower than MOS guidance for minimum temperatures tonight with values in the lower 60s inland to near 70 along the Atlantic coast/St Johns River basin.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 93 70 89 / 0 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 92 69 84 / 0 10 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 91 68 85 / 0 10 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 89 66 82 / 0 10 40 10.
CIGs could dip down to MVFR as showers and thunderstorms along an approaching cold front move over the terminals. This trough has been quite effective into pushing a frontal boundary into the Texas Panhandle.
1001 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
Outflow convection ahead of approaching cold frontal boundary may reach sw AR after 10/12z but will likely diminish before 10/18z. the drier air to the E and N of the upper low just off the TX coast has really tapered development over Nrn LA. the afternoon water vapor imagery reveals an upper trough translating SE across the Nrn and Cntrl Rockies. which will absorb the weak upper troughing /the remnants of Newton/ over the TX Panhandle into NW OK/Cntrl KS/. allowing a weak cold front to shift SE into NW TX/Cntrl and Ern OK late tonight. enhancing low level convergence and resulting in sct/numerous areas of convection development along/ahead of the front and attendant upper trough. the weak cold front itself will slowly drift SE into extreme NE TX/SW AR by mid to late morning.
1232 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure will cross the region overnight then move east Saturday.
831 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A warm front will lift north thorough the Ohio valley tonight, providing a continued threat for heavy rain.
but a cold front will move south into the state overnight into Sat.
Upper trof crossing the Dakotas this afternoon, with scattered shra/tsra. Convection will end early this evening as trof pulls east. High pressure located across across the overnight with clearing skies and light winds. May be some patchy frost late tonight in the Black Hills and around Pine Ridge. Dry and warmer for Saturday.
835 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will extend across the area through Saturday.
726 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A stalled front will linger over Pennsylvania through the night, then lift north of the region as a warm front early Saturday.
713 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 A warm front will track north across the area tonight and Saturday morning accompanied by scattered showers with isolated thunder possible. A cold front will approach the area from the west late Saturday, probably bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower 70s north, mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s coastal.
1003 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will cross the region overnight then move east Saturday.
953 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
/issued 514 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ For the short term, the major synoptic feature is a weak area of low pressure across the Florida Straits. The local LAPS analysis indicated a weak closed low at 19z and for the last 3 to 4 hours has indicated an increasing trend in the surface vorticity. As for any impacts on South Florida as it tracks west to southwest tonight, expecting bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue radiating outward from the low and mainly impacting the southern portion of the peninsula and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. An upper level low currently east of the Carolinas will likely continue to retrograde southwest over the weekend and will enhance chances of showers and thunderstorms, with activity possible across the Gulf and Atlantic waters as well.
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
701 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A cold front bisecting central and southwest Kansas is progged to move south and east becoming a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening. This should support scattered to numerous storms developing with convergence along the southward advancing cold front late this afternoon and evening. This will support torrential rainfall once again but the front is expected to be progressive limiting the duration of the heaviest rain with the highest amounts in the 1-3" range expected across mainly southeast KS. A ridge of high pressure will bring light winds and sunny conditions.
A cold front will move into the region from the north on Saturday bringing with it a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Clouds will increase late tonight with overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 70s.
903 PM PDT FRI SEP 9 2016 It will be warmer than average at most locales along with less extensive night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog through Saturday.
Much of the SE region remains under the influence of a stacked ridge of high pressure pretty much layered across the mid/srn Atlantic states. A fairly persistent light sly wind over the Lower MS Valley into nw AL was helping to limit the radiational cooling thus far. 09 (Issued 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016) For 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected across the central Tennessee Valley into Saturday morning, as strong upper level high pressure controls the weather. A cold front approaching from the northwest will be near northwest Alabama late Saturday afternoon.
532 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Cold front has pushed through the CWA with north to northeast winds gusting to 20-30 kts across the plains. Scattered to broken layer of low clouds will begin to clear after 00z behind the upper trough axis.
1100 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Initial cold front/wind shift through all the area this afternoon, with secondary front and more substantial cool air mass dropping southward into ne CO as of 20z. Only potential weather issue will be increasing winds over the plains, as S-SE flow increases in the afternoon behind departing area of high pressure.
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
/issued 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ Afternoon WV imagery shows the upper level low that was located over the central Gulf of Mexico yesterday moving over the south- central TX coast. Several areas of convection have developed this afternoon in vicinity of the upper low.
Ridging in the southern U. VFR conditions currently prevail at the temrianls, but this wont last long as a broken line of thunderstorms is sweeping southeast with a cold front that will move through overnight.
(Issued 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016) An elongated trough within the polar jet is moving towards the Midwest sending a late summer sfc cold front towards the MS/OH river valleys this weekend. The progression of this trough and front is the primary weather maker for Saturday into Saturday night across the TN valley with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Then, a brief time period of 'cooler' weather occurs after the frontal passage.
This system will march east across the Plains over the next 24 hours, and is currently forcing a strong cold front south. The front is surging faster south down the high Plains which is typical. Convection developed initially along the pre-frontal trough axis across W KS and NW OK and along the old outflow boundary that retreated out of our area across SW MO. it does appear that the cold front is catching up with this initial convective boundary. Cold front was located near a line from KGUY-KRSL-KCNK in western/central KS this afternoon. This will be followed by drier and cooler airwith clearing skies and an early taste of fall weather. Overnight lows Sat night should fall into 50s over much of the area along with some upper 40s in normally cooler locations.
Adjusted pops elsewhere as showers are still possible as the cold front is yet to move through the region. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from eastern Hudson Bay southwestward across northern Ontario and into Minnesota. Height falls and DCVA ahead of the approaching trough resulted in widespread forcing for ascent across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the boundary and temperatures will trend cooler tonight and Saturday.
830 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper level trough is currently moving across the plains this afternoon. A cold front is located across central Iowa across western Nebraska into southwestern Kansas this afternoon. As the trough continues to dive south the front will continue to move to the southeast towards the area later this evening then through the area tonight into early Saturday morning. As the cold front starts to move into the area storms will develop across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri and spread east and southeast into the area. Deep layer shear will increase across the region with the approach of the upper level trough. Showers and a few storms will likely linger for a few hours behind the front as the 850mb front and upper level trough lag the surface front some overnight.
902 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A warm front will lift north thorough the Ohio valley tonight, providing a continued threat for heavy rain.
Surface cold front extends from KMHK/KHUT/KGUY early this evening with a line of thunderstorms along it. with gusty north winds in the cooler airmass. Cold front was located near a line from KGUY-KRSL-KCNK in western/central KS this afternoon. This will be followed by drier and coolerair with clearing skies and an early taste of fall weather. Overnight lows Sat night should fall into 50s over much of the area along with some upper 40s in normally cooler locations.
/issued 244 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The upper level low will drift towards the lower Texas coast tonight resulting in an increase in some high clouds. The upper level low/trough will move towards the middle Texas coast on Saturday as a weak cold front moves through Central Texas. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to around 100 west.
A slow moving upper level low will meander into Texas on Saturday and serve as a focus for additional showers late tonight into Saturday. /ISSUED / The combination of an upper low near the mid Texas coast and an Easterly Wave moving into SE Texas will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms into this evening. On Saturday, the approach of a frontal boundary from the north will combine with the dynamics contributed by the wave and the upper low.
612 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 North to northeast winds are expected to pick up into the 25 to 30 knot range with higher gusts at all TAF sites by around 03z behind a cold front. /Issued 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ Winds across the northwestern zones have remained out of a northerly direction over the course of the day Today with the main push of the cold front still over Kansas. Storm chances drop off quickly as the cold front pushes south of the area.
735 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. A weak area of low pressure is located just south of Key West. Due to strong upper-level winds, significant development of this area of low pressure is unlikely overnight as it moves to the west at 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances overnight will be kept above all numerical model output statistics due to the presence of the aforementioned weak area of low pressure over the western portion of the Florida Straits.
1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A cold front is currently pushing into the region. While a slight chance exists for PVW and LBB to see convection, the low chances do not warrant a mention in the TAFs. This trough has been quite effective into pushing a frontal boundary into the Texas Panhandle.
A weak area of low pressure will move inland over central California later this weekend and bring a chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the high Sierra.
1039 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
751 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will remain anchored over the southeast through Saturday.
An offshore ridge is strengthening a bit so expect overnight lows will be a degree or two warmer than last night. Took a good look at Central Oregon since a number of stations were around freezing last night.
RAP 850-700mb Thickness/Saturated Equivalent Potential Temperature/streamlines indicate that a cold front will cross into northern Arizona this evening. The ridge will be centered overhead tonight providing clear skies and cool temperatures.
726 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight ahead of a warm front. A cold front will sweep across the area on Saturday with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. The first is the effective surface warm front located from northeast of St Louis to across the Ohio River. Everything may exit the area after 6z with potential for a lull until the cold front approaches from the NW Saturday.
Expect another warm day on Saturday, with a slight chance of afternoon showers in the higher elevations.
A repositioning of the Great Basin high pressure ridge to the southwest and effects from a trough extending down from a low pressure system across BC has introduced a drier mid to upper-level air mass into northern NV as flow becomes more zonal.
For the rest of today, a trough will remain across the lower Ohio Valley. The upper level ridging to the west will begin to build back into the area.
The upper high will continue to weaken tonight as it elongates over the southern states. The weakness in the high over western NM, aided by an easterly wave over the Gulf of California, should allow traditional monsoon moisture to begin streaming northward on Sunday. In fact, the easterly wave looks to move up into AZ as a weak low/inverted trough by mid week, which could really help to bring up substantial moisture into at least western NM.
507 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Weak troughing aloft will be conducive to a few showers and thunderstorms over the area today.
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure over Quebec will gradually build east through today as a weak area of low pressure moves into southern New England.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500 mb ridging will continue to build over the RGV from the Gulf of Mexico throughout today and Monday. For temps will go close to persistence on through today and Monday as the 500 mb ridging strengthens over the area.
07Z surface analysis shows a warm front well to our south and west from the High Plains through the Ohio Valley, but the more elevated baroclinic zone farther northeast continues to drive MCSs from SD into KS.
Have left in some low 20 pops in for a few hours for the low chances of any lingering showers across now and any lingering by the time this area progresses through the broad upper trough base later tonight.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge is nearby and may eventually win out. Will lean toward that solution which has the upper ridging keeping the best forcing along the border. Monday night finds the ECMWF driving a more robust short wave trof through the area. The NAM/GFS have upper level/surface ridging keeping most of the forcing along the international border over the apex of the ridge.
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough crosses West Virginia today, followed by a weaker one tonight. Drier with upper level ridging into midweek. A weak upper level short wave trough, already bringing patchy cloud and an isolated shower here and there early this morning, will bring about the chance for showers and thunderstorms today, mainly east of the Ohio River.
Temps today should be similar to yesterday's highs, as temps aloft stay fairly steady under the broad upper high. Mainly in the upper 90s for the Plains and 70s-80s for the high country. Possibly could be a bit cooler if storms develop sooner than expected.
700 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. However, humidity levels will continue to be pegged in the high category, with dewpoints in the 70s. This is courtesy to the mid/upper trough axis from the Great Lakes south into the Tn Valley, moving east toward the central Appalachians later today.
122 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Low pressure will move slowly east across the forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week. The low will work to the east late Sunday into Monday.
224 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Current surface map shows weak low across Montana, with trof extending into Wyoming. Surface trof moves into western Dakotas this afternoon. Moisture pooling east of the trof will result in MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/KG. Surface trof/cold front slides through western South Dakota Monday morning and is located over south central South Dakota Monday afternoon.
339 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 (Today and Tonight) A bimodal upper ridge will stretch across the southern CONUS through tonight with the eastern maxima, now located over coastal Mississippi, building westward toward Texas. Afternoon temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs near 100 degrees. Morning lows should be a degree or two cooler with lows mostly in the lower 70s. (Monday through Sunday) Hot and dry conditions should prevail, as the upper level ridge remains in place.
315 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. However, humidity levels will continue to be pegged in the high category, with dewpoints in the 70s. This is courtesy to the mid/upper trough axis from the Great Lakes south into the Tn Valley, moving east toward the central Appalachians later today.
Deep layer ridging will persist over our area, resulting in a typical summertime pattern where the sea breeze and outflow boundaries will be the main forcing for daytime showers and thunderstorms.
640 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough crosses West Virginia today, followed by a weaker one tonight. Drier with upper level ridging into midweek. A weak upper level short wave trough, already bringing patchy cloud and an isolated shower here and there early this morning, will bring about the chance for showers and thunderstorms today, mainly east of the Ohio River.
430 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016 Low pressure was over Ohio along a stationary front from Delaware to Missouri. This low will move east today and Monday and push a weak cold front into Kentucky and Virginia.
331 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 31/00z upper-air analysis indicate a trough over western Canada, downstream ridging over the northern High Plains and a broad, low-amplitude trough over the Great Lakes into mid Mississippi Valley.
326 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A strong low level jet of 35-40kts has intensified a warm frontal boundary over central Kansas leading to the formation of an MCS. High resolution models such as HRRR and RAP indicate these storms will start to dissipate as the low level jet weakens late in the morning with surface heating. This low increases the pressure gradient over the Great Plains and intensifies convergence along the boundary over NE Missouri as it interacts with the high pressure over the Great Lakes. Once the low level jet intensifies Sunday night another potential MCS is expected to form over NE Missouri and Iowa. The low level jet that forms over KS and MO Sunday night will also bring strong warm air advection over the region with an increase of 6C at 850hPa by 12z Monday morning.
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions are expected today into Monday as high pressure builds in. Highs will reach the low 80s today and the mid 80s on Monday. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
Low level convergence axis sets up this afternoon across our southwest and southern counties where theta-e ridge is higher.
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Broad upper ridge across the southern half of the country will remain over the region through the coming week and beyond. Summer time pattern will continue with little day to day change in the weather with near to above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorms over the higher elevations.
Meanwhile, further east, there is a large upper low/inverted trough centered over south Texas.
201 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Daily storm chances continue unabated, as troffy nwlys aloft continue through the course of the short term forecast, with evolution of synoptic flow pattern transition between falling heights east and rising heights west and PAH FA sandwiched between. Apparent temps will be on the rise during the work week, as ridging heights start to win out and surface temps/dew points climb a few degrees. As we have seen through the summer, the main synoptic feature will be the persistent 500 mb subtropical ridge that has oscillated eastward from the Plains and then back westward at times. The ridge will expand eastward during this coming week, and it will be centered almost directly over the Lower Ohio Valley late in the workweek.
654 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions are expected today into Monday as high pressure builds in. Highs will reach the low 80s today and the mid 80s on Monday. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
Upper low over western Canada is expected to spin east into central Canada by late Monday.
419 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A broad area of low pressure in place across northern Ohio will slowly shift east into Pennsylvania tonight.
Otherwise, subsidence from the eastward-building upper ridge will be in control of our sensible weather for today and the next several days. Early morning water vapor imagery shows a disorganized upper low spinning across southern TX. This upper-level feature can be tracked most easily by an analysis of tropopause potential temperature and PV which depict the low meandering across Central TX for the next couple days before becoming elongated into a PV streamer stretching from OK to western Mexico by midweek. While this scenario would generally mean a weakness in the height fields aloft, the mid-level ridge depicted in the 500mb heights will have strengthened dramatically across this same area as well as most of the Southern Plains.
318 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot temperatures through the weekend. This afternoon, cooler air made its way across the west San Joaquin passes as well as into the Kern County portion of the Antelope Valley on increased onshore gradients.
454 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes which remains through 00z Mon.
507 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain just north of the area today and tonight.
Atwell Mid to long-range models show good agreement with a weak long wave trough drifting along the Appalachians and dragging a weak frontal boundary into the TN Valley Region by late Monday. This coupled with subtle disturbances traversing through the upper trough should enhance our chances for at least mainly diurnal driven convection on Monday and Monday night.
Upper ridge will continue to build back in over our region as we move into the work week, and we will see our temps continue to inch up further towards the century mark each day, especially for our ne TX/se OK counties. Despite this, weaknesses on the ern periphery of the ridge will allow for isold to sct convection each day, mainly for n LA/srn AR.
An upper low and trough remain in British Columbia and is sending cold and dry air across the area.