Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures across the region's airports are generally running about 3-8 degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago. By the time the afternoon concludes, highs across the Sacramento Valley will range from the upper 80s/low 90s around the Delta to the low triple digits in the the Northern Sacramento Valley.
935 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 A few lingering showers/tstms continue around the cntrl TN Valley this late Mon evening, as an upper ridge axis in place over much of the region continues to gradually weaken. This activity should continue to diminish over the next couple of hrs with the loss of latent heating, as overnight temps fall into the lower/mid 70s for most spots. Mid level ridging will weaken on Tuesday, as a weak trough moves into the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley. This trough will quickly swing through the Ohio Valley, with the weakness in the ridge allowing for a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 An upper trough in the northern stream will push a disturbance through the area tonight. A weak cold front, and likely outflow boundaries from thunderstorms will also move through. Slightly warmer in the mid 80s, with upper 80s far southwest.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Monday for the lower Grand Canyon. Cooler temperatures beginning Tuesday will last through the weekend. The upper level instability that is responsible for the limited shower activity is an upper level low over Las Vegas. Along with these drier conditions an extreme heat advisory continues over the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through 8 pm this evening.
A trough over northern CA will lift monsoonal moisture northward across the NV border on Tuesday evening, with showers generally south of a line from Twin Falls, ID to Jordan Valley, OR.
Tomorrow the midlevel flow will transition to the west- southwest as a low moves over the West Coast and high pressure builds back to the central US.
Low thunderstorm chances may impact KBVO late tonight so will include a VCTS from 06z-09z given the low coverage expected. Additional isolated convection was also occurring this afternoon within the higher terrain of Southeast Oklahoma from the instability associated with daytime heating. dewpoints were upper 60s to upper 70s with the highest values pooling near the outflow boundary across Northeast Oklahoma. low temps in the low to mid 70s are expected. with the ridge of high pressure retreating to the southeast. highs temps look to be slightly cooler compared to previous days.
On Tuesday, the summer subtropical ridge will continue to be suppressed just enough such that we have to keep an eye out for additional late day/evening thunderstorms just about anywhere, especially in vicinity of remnant outflows. Temperatures for the remainder of the week into the weekend will be quite consistent with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
Deep-layer quasi-zonal flow will be in place Wed as the region remains on the nrn side of sern-CONUS high pressure and to the south of the nrn-stream mid-level jet. With increased cloud cover and the prior day's widespread showers and storms, temperature on Thu will be considerably cooler than prior days. Troughing is expected to persist across the Great Lakes late in the week. High pressure will then build across the region Fri/Sat downstream of a mid-level ridge. VFR will prevail into tomorrow morning despite high pressure eroding across the region.
As we progress through late this evening, the southeastern mid- level ridge builds westward with more of a south/southwesterly influence over Missouri.
847 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Low level southeast flow is expected in the low to mid levels as an easterly wave approaches the FL Keys late tonight.
A warming trend will take place early this week as an upper level ridge pushes through the area.
/Issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020/ High pressure is to continue to dominate the area with slightly lower heights, around 580 decameters.
There is a southwest-northeast oriented surface trof extending off the Black Hills region all the way over into southeast NoDak this afternoon that will have to be monitored as a possible source of low level forcing for additional/new convection to develop on as the afternoon becomes evening. Short- range guidance continues to suggest increasing amounts of instability will move to/along this boundary over the next several hours, coupled with the PVA from the ongoing MCV-aided convective system and any additional lift with the upper trof approaching from eastern Montana.
An Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to provide dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Saturday.
Patchy light drizzle is possible through at least 02/06Z as the main upper level trough swings through the region overnight followed by some patchy fog through 12Z.
Late tonight into Saturday morning, the low levels will moisten up a bit as the Mid America upper trough pushes further east toward the Great Valley. Tried to break out of the lower ceilings behind the upper feature at cha and tys during the afternoon as a slightly drier westerly flow strengthens.
Pressure increases aloft with a ridge axis sitting west of the area, coupled with westerly downslope flow over KS will allow temperatures to reach the mid and upper 50s Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will hold near the freezing mark overnight.
/issued 149 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020/ An upper trough moving across the region today will slowly swing out of TX tonight.
High pressure over West Texas will move east through Saturday. The high will bring sunny skies on Saturday. Low/mid level flow will be transitioning to a more sw/ssw direction for the remainder of the weekend as ridging moves east of the area.
238 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 High clouds moving through the ridge to the west has limited sunshine across the region which has hindered warming during the day. The ridge to the west flattens on Saturday as a mid-level trough moves along the northern border of the U. Increased solar insolation is likely to bring warmer temperatures and going forecast seemed to be on track. Conversely, overnight lows could be a bit cooler as there will few clouds to limit the escape of terrestrial long wave radiation.
While cloudy conditions persist, it is dry and temperatures are warmer with many sites sitting in the mid 50s. Eventually the stationary boundary will get the boot as the upper level trough works toward the area which will allow another round of showers for the entire Mid State. By 12z Saturday, the trough axis will still be back along the Mississippi River which will allow showers to linger through Saturday morning especially along the plateau.
High pressure will bring dry conditions with warmer temperatures this weekend.
This will result in temperatures being about 10-20 degrees cooler for highs on Saturday, with mid and upper 60s outside of the snow cover.
325 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a stout upper ridge from the southwestern Canadian provinces into the Eastern Pacific. A upper trough extended from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Great Plains. The lull in strong winds will be short-lived as the low level gradients increase once again beginning later this evening and continuing through Saturday afternoon.
Late tonight, an upper level trough will swing eastward and allow intensities to elevate slightly as the rainfall begins to move across eastern areas. This upper trough will continue to move the precip out of our area on Saturday morning. An upper trough will push across the area just aft 12z and the northerly push behind it will send that frontal boundary southeastward.
We should continue to see these low clouds slowly erode to the east this evening while this higher level cirrus continues to stream across the area. A warm front will push east through the Dakotas on Saturday. A decent warm air advection pattern will result that will translate in 5-10C or warmer air at 925mb by mid-late afternoon. Highs of 40 degrees or warmer look like a good bet for most of the forecast area. Some locales in our far east could by stuck in the 30s and places west of the Missouri River could see readings of 50 or warmer.
By Saturday afternoon, the low level thermal trough will finally push through the area with subsidence becoming dominant and diminishing the cloud cover from the west.
643 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 With the CONUS stuck in this prolonged split-flow pattern, Upper Michigan is under an elongated, positively-tilted upper-level trough. This trough stretches from James Bay through the Texas Panhandle as pockets of vorticity remain embedded within the trough that are helping kick off some -shsn across the UP, MN, and IA this morning. Tonight, the aforementioned trof is progged to move east as a building ridge across the western CONUS facilitates its departure.
/Issued 332 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020/ Weak cold front currently passing through the fcst area will act to usher away the recent persistent cloudiness.
There is also a very low chance for freezing drizzle early Saturday morning but temperatures will climb above freezing shortly after sunrise.
Vertical profile is cold enough to allow for a light wintry mix over the highest elevations, generally at or above 3500 feet. Forcing is rather weak which should keep precipitation intensity on the low side. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 36 61 39 66 / 30 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 36 57 39 67 / 30 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 35 58 39 65 / 50 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 33 55 36 65 / 50 10 0 0 0.
1055 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Upper level low with attendant bits of energy shifting slowly east/southeast across the area this evening, and will continue to spark areas of light pcpn. Mostly snow expected, but there will be some loss of ice in cloud (per RAP bufkit soundings) that point to freezing drizzle. Amounts of snow and/or icing (if freezing drizzle is realized) will be minimal. Mild weekend for the region as upper level ridge builds in.
Tranquil conditions continue today and tonight as an upper level ridge breaks down while moving across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a drier air mass in the lower/mid levels will continue to dominate the region. As for temperatures, an ongoing warming trend will go uninterrupted today as a westerly downslope flow draws warmer air through the high plains of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up a little above 10C.
210 AM EST Sat Feb 01 2020 Low pressure will move well offshore the middle Atlantic coast this morning. An upper level trough and accompanying weak surface cold front will cross central NC later today and this evening.
An upper trough will continue to swing into the region overnight as well. Upper trofiness persists across the central CONUS, with multiple weak disturbances yet to swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday. This unsettled wx will continue tonight and most of Saturday, until the trof axis slips to our east.
241 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 Dry weather conditions and much warmer air will prevail across the region for this weekend.
Satellite indicated plenty of high clouds were spilling over upper level ridge in the west and into eastern ND. Some freezing precip possible late tonight in the western zones may create some travel impacts. Warmer temperatures are still expected to move in, but there is deep snow across the FA. So it may be possible to mix down the warmer air and make a run at 40 degrees.
1025 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 High clouds moving through the ridge to the west has limited sunshine across the region which has hindered warming during the day. The ridge to the west flattens on Saturday as a mid-level trough moves along the northern border of the U. Increased solar insolation is likely to bring warmer temperatures and going forecast seemed to be on track. Conversely, overnight lows could be a bit cooler as there will few clouds to limit the escape of terrestrial long wave radiation.
A large upper trough across the central US will drift eastward across the area over the next 24 hours, bringing potential for light flurries/snow showers and/or drizzle to the area. The short term period of the forecast will be dry as upper level ridging builds into the area.
/issued 313 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A 500mb trough continues to move across the Central and Southern United States. Models are not impressed on rainfall potential tonight, and the disturbance looks to open and become absorbed by the main trough. On Saturday, much drier air moves in as a 500mb ridge builds over the region.
1114 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 A low pressure system in central Iowa at 21Z will continue to move southeast, dragging a weak surface front through the CWA overnight. Aided by a PV anomaly aloft, the weak cold front will be the focus for light precipitation this evening into tomorrow morning as it traverses the bi-state region. Thanks to the thick stratus deck that has clung to the mid Mississippi River Valley temperatures will be above freezing when precipitation is falling. In the wake of the weak cold front, dry air will start to erode the seemingly endless moisture that has plagued the region over the last week.
The h500 will rise pretty rapidly through the overnight, bringing in a warmer airmass, so expect very warm temperatures across the region tomorrow afternoon.
By later this morning, the longwave trough currently overhead will begin kicking out of the region. In turn, a triumphant comeback is in store for sunny skies and warmer temperatures. The above average temperatures and clear skies will really be the only weather story this weekend, as subtle ridging builds in behind this longwave.
In the short term, the aforementioned low/trough will quickly track across the area this evening and into the overnight hours. As the disturbance exits and snow is tapering off, some freezing drizzle will be possible along with the potential for some fog. Otherwise clouds will be slow to break, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 30s north to upper 30s or near 40 south.
Expect highs on Saturday to climb into the lower to middle 50s with winds relatively light through the day.
High pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
Surface temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing until late tonight after precip has exited.
Warmer temperatures and more sunshine for the weekend.
Overall the pattern will be fairly quiet through the weekend as ridging and warmer temps dominate.
/issued 816 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020/ An upper trough will move into the Mid-South overnight. Patchy light drizzle is possible through at least 02/06Z as the main upper level trough swings through the region overnight followed by some patchy fog through 12Z.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft moving eastward across the Intermountain West resulting in a northerly flow across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing in eastern Colorado. This will result in temperatures being about 10-20 degrees cooler for highs on Saturday, with mid and upper 60s outside of the snow cover.
320 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Light snow is expected this morning with a transition to drizzle by early afternoon as temperatures climb above freezing. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s for most locations with clearing skies by the afternoon.
357 AM EST Sat Feb 01 2020 Low pressure will move well offshore the middle Atlantic coast this morning. An upper level trough and accompanying weak surface cold front will cross central NC later today and this evening.
/Tonight/ The evening RGB satellite imagery still indicates a considerable cu field lingering across much of SW AR/N LA/extreme Ern TX, with a secondary axis of cu noted farther W across SE OK/ECntrl TX, near the center of the upper trough axis extending from NW AR SW into Srn OK and N TX. The back edge of the cu field has shown a tendency to build a little S in the last couple of hours, and may eventually affect much of E TX before clearing late tonight as a deeper wedge of drier air continues to mix ESE with the upper trough passage.
328 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Current surface analysis as of 08Z across eastern Kentucky features a weak surface inverted trough pushing through eastern Kentucky. Aloft, a weak trough will push through the MS Valley. As the lower levels begin to saturate further east, showers will develop into the far east with snow mixing in with and changing to snow on Black Mountain this morning, and then again tonight. High pressure will begin to push in behind this trough with skies beginning to clear out from west to east.
After an upper wave brings chances for snow and then rain across the area today, southwesterly flow will develop to bring much warmer temperatures to the area for a few days.
This evening an upper level trof axis was sliding east southeast through Eastern Oklahoma. winds were light and temps ranged from the lower 30s to lower 40s over the CWA.
Temperatures are holding up quite well under clearing skies as persistent westerly breeze is keeping the low level airmass fairly mixed. Satellite indicated plenty of high clouds were spilling over upper level ridge in the west and into eastern ND. Some freezing precip possible late tonight in the western zones may create some travel impacts. Warmer temperatures are still expected to move in, but there is deep snow across the FA. So it may be possible to mix down the warmer air and make a run at 40 degrees.
(Today and tonight) Dry and warmer today with highs in the 60s across much of the fa which is above average for this time of year.
254 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Low pressure will move away from the region today with an upper level trough crossing the area in the afternoon and evening.
This is a good thing too, as temperature profiles suggested freezing rain if they had stayed together. An upper level ridge of high pressure and much warmer than normal temperatures remains in control over the region - especially the southwestern parts. Even though the associated lapse rates are weaker than would usually support high winds reaching the surface, there seems to be enough model data consensus to support it for the higher elevation areas, like our southwestern Phillips County. But, next shifts should keep a close eye out for surprise or unexpected showers during the day on Saturday, which would require us to consider expanding the High Wind Warning beyond its current scope.
1216 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 With the CONUS stuck in this prolonged split-flow pattern, Upper Michigan is under an elongated, positively-tilted upper-level trough. This trough stretches from James Bay through the Texas Panhandle as pockets of vorticity remain embedded within the trough that are helping kick off some -shsn across the UP, MN, and IA this morning. Tonight, the aforementioned trof is progged to move east as a building ridge across the western CONUS facilitates its departure.
Then, lots of sunshine on Saturday will help produce afternoon highs some 10 degrees warmer than usual early February highs.
947 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 20z surface analysis had increasing south to west flow across the CWA as warm front organizes from central MT into eastern WY. Upper ridge building into the northern plains with chunky ac/ci shield pushing east. Tonight/Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with increasing low level southwest/west flow as a result of warm front/pressure falls shifting into the eastern Dakotas. The usually gusty southwest winds over northeast WY overnight will translate over most of the CWA Saturday as they turn westerly behind the warm front.
An upper trough will swing through the Midwest at the same time. Cooler heights aloft look to bring another round of isolated to widely scattered rain showers as that trough passes this afternoon.
An upper level ridge of high pressure and much warmer than normal temperatures remains in control over the region - especially the southwestern parts. Even though the associated lapse rates are weaker than would usually support high winds reaching the surface, there seems to be enough model data consensus to support it for the higher elevation areas, like our southwestern Phillips County. But, next shifts should keep a close eye out for surprise or unexpected showers during the day on Saturday, which would require us to consider expanding the High Wind Warning beyond its current scope.
By midday, the trof's energy is shifting its axis east of the Tennessee valley, and some drier air starts to work in from the west.
An upper trough is still in AR and northeast TX and will sweep through the region today. Lingering low level moisture and weak lift ahead of the front may develop a few light showers, especially in the afternoon as the trough moves through.
1106 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated positively tilted trough moving through the middle of the country.
The mid-level ridge axis, now currently over the Sierra Nevada, will continue to progress east throughout the weekend. After the ridge axis passes the county warning area (CWA) to the east by midday Sunday, the mid-level flow will back to the southwest and increase in magnitude as a sub-tropical jet streak progresses northeast into the entrance region of the highly amplified polar jet across the northern U.
Expect highs on Saturday to climb into the lower to middle 50s with winds relatively light through the day. By Sunday, a building ridge of high pressure across the central CONUS and gusty south/southwest winds will allow temperatures to sore into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks.
Short term models indicate showers will continue through the morning hours before diminishing, followed by additional showers moving across in the afternoon in association with the main upper trough axis.
544 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 Today still looks like there will be a significant warm-up with upper level ridging and downsloping winds helping to also warm things up. I expect some isentropic lift occurring north of the front to the south, and could give us some light snow/flurries and even some freezing drizzle, considering dry mid-levels.
509 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 (Today and tonight) Dry and warmer today with highs in the 60s across much of the fa which is above average for this time of year.
442 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Low pressure will move away from the region today with an upper level trough crossing the area in the afternoon and evening.
325 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 The temperature forecast today uses the warmer MAV guidance plus bias correction for highs in the 50s to near 70. Strong high pressure across Colorado will break down tonight and be replaced by low pressure across the cntl High plains Sunday. The cold air will back into Nebraska during the day Sunday cooling highs across nrn Nebraska first with the cooler air arriving across swrn Nebraska late Sunday afternoon. The temperature forecast Sunday leans on the cooler short term model blend but this might be too cool as the models show nearly full sun conditions and this could hold up the progress of the cold air. Arctic high pressure will build across Alaska and begin moving south tonight.
Upper ridging builds into the Plains states this weekend, resulting in well above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
345 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 Upper trough axis has pushed east of the area early this morning, leaving the forecast area with clear/mostly clear skies and drier air. Sunday will be even warmer with mid 70s forecast across much of the area.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a longwave trough moving through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys early this morning. As of 4 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South have remained in the lower 40s across most locations due to the persistent overcast skies.