Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front extended west from the low across the northern portions of the Canadian Prairies. South of this cold front, a mild west/southwest flow continued over the north central US states and southern Canadian Prairies. Little change outside of observed trends through 23 UTC as a mild overnight is expected behind a warm front across western North Dakota early this evening that will propagate east through the night. Late tonight/early Monday morning a Canadian cold front will begin a southward descent into ND, progressing across the state through Monday. The proceeding warm front will make for a mild Monday, particularly in central and southern areas where high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 40s. Though we could see some precipitation track with the cold front as it drops south through the forecast area.
322 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A frontal boundary will remain north of the region today as high pressure remains centered over the southeast US.
Timing of upper storm system appears to be late evening in northwest AR, to midnight over more northern AR, then as the upper lift and cold front gradually sag south, additional convection will be seen over all of AR after midnight to Sunday morning. That is expected to change tngt as a cold front wl drop SWD toward AR, along with an upr lvl impulse, allowing for rapid storm formation to our N and W by early this evening. The actual cold front wl finally makes its way SEWD thru AR Sun and Sun night.
Have also lowered the PoPs for the Uinta Mountains this afternoon to slight chance as the trough aloft moves away and neutral to anticyclonic flow aloft moves in reducing the instability.
A surface cold front may approach SW Virginia around 00z, also serving as a source for severe weather in and around the northeast zones around sunset (00-03z). MCS features can tend to propagate faster in higher CAPE environments than the lower res models sometimes realize. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 69 87 69 / 60 50 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 65 83 66 / 60 60 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 81 65 83 67 / 60 50 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 62 80 63 / 60 70 70 60.
422 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure builds over the region this weekend.
Southwest to south winds will continue, ahead of a cold front that will reach KABI after midnight and then the remainder of the terminals Sunday morning. /issued 413 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture continues to surge north and west into West Central Texas early this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northwest Hill Country and even higher values stretching from the Rio Grande east into Central Texas. Cold front moves into West Central Texas tonight, mainly between midnight and sunrise.
742 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure overhead this morning will move offshore later today. A wave of low pressure will move across the area this afternoon or evening pushing a weak front south of the area late tonight.
Finally, a strong line of thunderstorms is forecasted to move across areas south of Iowa along a warm front later today.
752 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Aviation An area of low pressure will move from Central Illinois tonight through southern portions of the Lower Peninsula on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the low on Sunday. Rain showers remain in the forecast for Memorial Day as an upper low moves toward the region.
637 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Mid level trough continues to dig across central North Dakota into southeast Wyoming early this morning. Will leave the highest chances for measurable rain near our southern border/Missouri Valley and into northwest Iowa with the initial band of rain this morning. Early week conditions will be courtesy of the influence from closed low over the western Great Lakes along with various impulses on the merry-go-round through the Northern Plains. First, temperatures will become cooler than normal once again to start the week, and have hedged temps a bit lower than climatologically impacted guidance.
Temps should reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
An upper low over southern Canada and the Great Lakes region will continue to provide a cyclonic flow aloft across the eastern half of Montana today continuing into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure ridging and its associated axis will remain over the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge and its axis over the Pacific Northwest will slowly shift east over the weekend bringing rising heights and warmer temperatures.
Precipitation chances will then increase as we go into tonight and the trough moves in. We should see a little break in the rain showers Sunday morning before another trough dives into the region from the north. This will be the start of a cooler pattern as a broad upper level low sets up across Ontario with troughing across the entire region. Plan on more widespread rain showers on Memorial Day as the trough and cooler air aloft settles overhead.
A strong upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest through the Memorial Day weekend, with sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures well above normal.
A short wave rotating around an upper low in southern Canada will emerge into the Plains States to our north today into tonight and propel a cold front through our area tonight. Tomorrow should be much cooler than today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with gusty northerly winds. Also an upper trough is forecast to develop along the west coast and slowly approach helping increase instability.
1157 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Only minor adjustments to keep up with some warmer temperatures in the northeast as the inversion mixes out rapidly with thinning clouds, and to POPs as the weak wave moves across our south/southeast counties while dissipating. If we can get showers to develop, NAM BUFKIT profiles show that bases will be above the freezing layer, so we could see some gustier winds with showers. Large scale lift out ahead of the approaching trough is bringing a large area of precipitation from far south central SD southward into KS.
As for temperatures, with showers holding off until later in the day we should climb into the low to mid 70s in most areas.
1221 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure will build across the area today then slide south of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall.
Northwesterly surface winds will increase this morning behind a trough/cold front, helping dry out the lower levels. Temperatures will be slightly below normal due to cloud cover and cooler air behind the front.
However, the stalled upper low to the north will support diurnal chances for ISOLD shra/ts this afternoon as another impulse rotates cyclonically through the region. However, forecast models are not quite agreeing on exact details per the evolution/progression of this mean trough given flow blocking potential over much of Canada.
A pattern change will see slightly cooler temperatures and a chance for showers almost each day this week. High pressure builds into the region for most of the Memorial Day weekend. The dry and warmer weather continues on Sunday as the high pressure ridge crests over the area bringing another day of fair conditions.
Expect a cooler airmass to infiltrate the region this afternoon behind the responsible trough of low pressure and associated cold front. Aloft: The last 2 model runs cont to indicate cyclonic NW flow will prevail Sun-Wed with a high amplitude ridge over Wrn N America and a low over Ontario. shoving the ridge E. A cut-off low or trof is fcst to break off somewhere over the SW or S-cntrl USA. with a low-amplitude ridge fcst to overtake the Cntrl/Nrn Plns. but it is still fcst to begin edging back to the NE as a warm front late Wed. The only legit potential for something meaningful appears to be Wed night into Thu AM as the rich 850 mb moisture plume advects N and the low-lvl jet develops and intersects the advancing warm front.
West-southwest flow will develop as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. Temperatures will likely climb into the lower 70s for much of the region. The cool front and a more potent upper-level trough will move through the Northland tonight and Sunday. High temperatures should range from the upper 60s in northwest Wisconsin to the low 60s in the northwest forecast area.
followed by mid/upper level high pressure building/expanding east/NE overhead from the Gulf of Mexico. This upper level ridging will be in control of our weather through the duration of the holiday weekend. 01" and the lowest value every sampled for today is 0. The subtropical ridge axis lies directly across the central or south-central FL peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This ridge axis will not move much through the weekend. The ridge axis in the vicinity means winds and gradient flow are weak. High temperatures by mid-afternoon should be in the lower 90s away from the coast and middle 80s at the coast. High temperatures are likely to be a degree or two warmer, but so will dewpoints. High pressure will be the dominant player in our weather across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the next several days.
Upper level ridge will be suppressed further southward today as upper trough moves into the Plains.
2 am surface map showing low pressure centered just north of Indianapolis, with a trailing frontal boundary extending southwest roughly along I-70 and linking to another low over southeast Colorado. However, several of the higher-resolution models project it to start taking a more southeast track by late afternoon, either completely missing the CWA or having only part of the forecast area clipped by the northern end of the bow this evening. Although the highest CAPE's will be south of I-70, both the NAM and GFS show CAPE's up to around 1500 J/kg by late afternoon over even the northern CWA. Upper level pattern over the coming week is generally one with a predominant broad trough/closed low covering the Great Lakes into the northern Plains. Periodic waves will rotate around the upper low, producing a few showers at times.
Ridge at mid/upper levels building into the area from the west today. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower 90s inland.
High pressure in the 700-500 mb remains with axis across north Florida with a near-surface col-region poised to remain in place near the Florida Keys. While some puffs of moderate cumulus are possible over the Lower Keys once again, the chance for measureable rainfall will remain slight today.
704 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure will build across the area today then slide south of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall.
722 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the area today and will shift offshore on Sunday.
Upper level analysis places low over east central Manitoba, with ridge over the west coast. Multiple short waves noted in the flow rotating around the low. Upper low will meander towards the Manitoba/Ontario border on Sunday, which will bring additional precipitation chances mainly to central and eastern portions of the state, along with another breezy day. Similar conditions expected for Memorial Day as the low gradually creeps over Lake Superior.
518 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017 GOES-R water vapor imagery depicted a positively-tilted trough axis from ND across southeast MT, western WY into northern UT/NV. The upper trough will shift to the east across the CWA today and into the plains this evening. Cyclonic flow aloft and a few weak disturbances rotating through the trough will maintain a cool and showery pattern today. Showers will end this evening with subsident and more stable air mass in the wake of upper trough passage. Sunday will trend somewhat drier with a northwest flow aloft on the anticyclonic side of the western CONUS upper ridge. High temperatures Sunday will be 5-10 degrees warmer with mid 60s-low 70s.
939 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure will build across the area today then slide south of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall.
100 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 A weak area of low pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley today while high pressure remains to the north over lower Ontario. Low pressure over the central plains will then move northeast extending a warm front over the area Saturday night before moving over the area on Sunday.
A couple of strong upper level disturbances are progged to move across the top of the ridge, one today and another during the first part of Sunday.
Early morning convection has produced a substantial reinforcement to the cold frontal boundary which currently extends from far NW OK to along the KS OK border in NE OK. An additional area of concern will be the dryline extending from the cold front southward through south central OK by late afternoon. Low level winds are less impressive however the aforementioned cold front would be a prime zone for enhanced low level shear especially given the level of instability. By early evening however any sustained supercell across SE OK looks to experience a period of enhanced low level shear and forecast hodographs become increasingly concerning before the cold front and/or combined outflow boundary from storms further north overtake any cellular activity.
A trough of low pressure is currently draped across southern Nevada and westward into northern Inyo County. The trough will also act to provide some cooling with today being the mildest day of the holiday weekend.
The region will be under a high amplitude upper level ridge today and tonight. The axis of the ridge will be just west of the Cascades today and along the Cascades tonight. As a result, the Interior Northwest will be under the strong subsidence portion of the upper ridge.
955 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 A weak area of low pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley today while high pressure remains to the north over lower Ontario. Low pressure over the central plains will then move northeast extending a warm front over the area Saturday night before moving over the area on Sunday.
1048 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017 A band of showers associated with the passing upper level trough has been moving south and eastward through the morning hours with light rain on the plains and a mix of snow and rain in the mountains. The upper trough axis is expected to remain over northeast Colorado through tonight with cool temperatures aloft. An upper level trough will move across the area today and then move southeast of the area by this evening. Sunday and Sunday night, a moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over CO with an upper level ridge centered over NV.
421 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure builds over the region this weekend.
944 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure will build across the area today then slide south of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring clouds and cool temperatures to the coast and warmer and drier weather inland.
1034 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak low pressure will move across the area late this afternoon into the evening which will push a weak front south of the area late tonight.
Weak high pressure ridge will extend from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula and into the Atlantic. It was more moist over south Florida, but with the ridge in place, there will only be slight moderation of the dry air mass as the sea breeze pushes slowly inland this afternoon. After morning lows in the 60s, and even a few upper 50s, temperatures will recover and be warmer than yesterday. Weak high pressure ridge was producing variable winds around 5 knots and seas around 2 feet. This will cause high temps to be several degrees warmer than yesterday.
Skies clear out tonight with Pacific high pressure building through the Rockies.
Short-range models have been consistent in lifting a warm front N as a broad, positively-tilted upper-deck trough extending from Central Canada to CA/NV moves east toward, then across the Great Plains today & tonight. As the trough approaches the warm front would continue to lift N while cold front surges E/SE toward, then across, South-Central KS this afternoon. The airmass ahead of the cold front will be EXTREMELY unstable with SBCAPES soaring into the 5,000-6,000 J/KG range across the southeast fourth of KS. With the SE-surging cold front exiting Southeast KS later this evening, the severe threat would quickly diminish.
The upper troughing that has dominated the east coast the past couple of days has moved east away from the area into the western Atlantic. Upper level ridging with a weak zonal flow will set up over the region for the next couple of days. On the surface, high pressure has set up over the eastern Gulf of Mexico just to the west of Tampa Bay.
/issued 354 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/ Surface and upper level ridging will continue across the area today before gradually shifting eastward tonight. Another dry day expected with the upper ridge overhead and strong subsidence continuing.
As a high pressure ridge builds slowly E'ward into our region, unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will persist as multiple disturbances ripple through the flow.
1020 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the area today and will shift offshore on Sunday.
Large scale lift out ahead of the approaching trough is bringing a large area of precipitation from far south central SD southward into KS.
That is expected to change tngt as a cold front wl drop SWD toward AR, along with an upr lvl impulse, allowing for rapid storm formation to our N and W by early this evening. The actual cold front wl finally makes its way SEWD thru AR Sun and Sun night.
A cold front will stall out across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon before pushing through late Saturday night.
Today, a cold front will continue to slide east and slowly south across the region leaving a weak baroclinic zone across southern North Dakota.
Upper level trough was over MAN with an upper level jet on the southern periphery. Upper level trough will move into Ontario by Mon morning. Another upper level trough over the Yukon will rotate into the Northern Plains late Mon and send a back door cold front into the area on Tue.
Deep moisture moves back into the area from the south as a weak inverted trough moves across the area today.
742 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure with fair weather will build across the area through Monday.
1101 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will build across the area today through Monday bringing seasonably warm, dry weather to the area today then warm and more humid weather on Monday.
941 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonably warm weather today.
There is a fair amount of instability ahead of this outflow so expect that convection could continue until the low level weakens in a few hours. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 90s with a few locations hitting the lower 100s. These temperatures along with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s will cause heat indices to reach the lower to mid 100s. The western wave then merges with a wave and cold front coming southeast out of the northern Plains Monday night for more widespread thunderstorm potential and heavy rain threat.
We will have considerable moisture pooling near the front with dewpoints near 70 or in the lower 70s by late afternoon near the boundary. This wave is expected to phase with a northern stream trough and push a front through the area which will bring us a chance for thunderstorms during the later afternoon, evening and overnight.
/issued 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the mouth of the Mississippi River, maintaining essentially calm winds over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows a flat ridge aloft stretching from the Desert Southwest through the srn Plains to the sern CONUS, while a tutt low is noted over the ern Gulf drifting wwd. Forecast area to remain under the influence of the weak ridging aloft, although with increasing contributions from the approaching tutt over the Gulf. Most medium/long-range models indicate a swath of wwd-moving moisture associated with the mid/upper low passing the area this afternoon which is also noted in high-res guidance.
Cold front continues to move eastward across the region and has just recently moved through ABR. There is some MUCAPE and effective shear to work with, but the bulk of the higher values are moving eastward with the front, with more stable air back to the west.
/issued 350 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ The subtropical ridge continues to build over the southern CONUS this morning with a broad ridge axis extending from west to east from the Southern Plains to the western Atlantic. There is a weakness in this ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico where a well-defined upper-level cyclone continues to meander in a general westerly direction. As the ridge continues to build today, mid-level temperatures will warm slightly. This will be reflected by afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s.
Temperatures slightly warmer southeast and northeast so adjusted hourly temperatures up and adjusted dewpoints where needed.
Otherwise, the forecast looks good as temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s later. The heat advisory remains in effect through this evening for SW portions of the FA as the building ridge aloft allows heat indices to exceed 105 degrees. /issued 350 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ The subtropical ridge continues to build over the southern CONUS this morning with a broad ridge axis extending from west to east from the Southern Plains to the western Atlantic. There is a weakness in this ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico where a well-defined upper-level cyclone continues to meander in a general westerly direction. As the ridge continues to build today, mid-level temperatures will warm slightly. This will be reflected by afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s.
Warm frontal boundary will lift into north central Nebraska over night with winds becoming southeast to the south of the frontal boundary. In the mid/upper levels, Nebraska is predominately in northwest flow as a closed low over northern Ontario digs a trough into the Great Lakes and a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. The ridge broadens as it progresses east onto the Plains late week. At the surface, a low pressure center near the KS/CO/NE border stretches a quasi stationary front across Nebraska on Monday.
/issued 344 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and generally dry conditions. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
Once again there is zonal flow aloft locally between a split trough. The trough in Canada has nudged a cold front south of our area, while hot, desert air remains well to our south. The forecast area should remain fairly stable today, but there will be a struggle with the boundary between the hot air to the south and the cooler Canadian air.
North to northeast winds have pushed the higher concentrations of smoke near the surface out of our area and improved air quality. Otherwise, outside of areas of smoke today, skies are expected to be partly sunny with afternoon highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. As a result, will keep shower/thunderstorm chances across Custer, Fallon, Powder River and Carter counties tonight, with the highest chances along the Dakota borders. High pressure ridging builds across the Pacific Northwest Monday as an upper low will be over east central Canada. Afternoon highs on Monday will be very similar to today or just a degree or two warmer, although smoke may hinder the temperatures just a bit both today and Monday.
/issued 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):Water vapor satellite imagery shows 500 mb low pressure spinning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This mid-level low pressure system will nudge 500 mb high pressure north and west as it advances. Dry weather will prevail today and tonight over the inland portion of the BRO CWFA, with the only hope for isolated showers occurring tonight over most of the Lower Texas coastal waters.