Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft, weak cut off low pressure off the Carolina coast early this morning will weaken further along the Mid Atlantic coastal area through Monday. To the southwest of the weakening upper low, upper level ridging continues over our area through Monday, but beginning to weaken during the day on Monday as a storm system starts to develop over the Plains States. At the surface, high pressure continues across the eastern CONUS, ridging down into our area from the northeast. With this, a general east to southeast low level flow is maintained through the period as our area remains on the southwest periphery of this ridge through Monday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s over far northern inland zones, to the low and mid 50s elsewhere over inland areas.
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight and tomorrow. in the low to mid 40s on the Plateau and in the 50s elsewhere. Mid level ridging will peak over our area tomorrow, which will make for another dry and warm day.
318 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 High pressure continues to remain overhead with the 1025mb high pressure center located to the southeast of the region. This will continue to favor the mostly clear skies and warmer, above average temperatures.
This will most probably end up as a compact upper low in the vicinity of the TX/OK border.
(This evening through Monday) A breezy and warm fall day across West Central texas with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s areawide. Finally, the upper low begins to approach the western Big Country by 00Z Monday afternoon. Models seem to underdo these strong upper lows that have little low level moisture, but good mid level moisture.
A rather deep H5 upper low continues to strengthen over the central Rockies this afternoon, providing an environment supported of strong warm air advection into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
233 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Vigorous longwave trough and associated low pressure system slowly moving east and deepening this afternoon. Cold front has cleared most of the FA with gusty NW winds ongoing across the region. This cold front will bring gusty northwest winds (40kts) behind it slowly spreading west to east.
Surface dewpoints have increased into the lower/mid 60s across the entire area as of 16z, which will keep minimum RHs this afternoon in the 35-50 percent range.
Looking at another cool and breezy day on the backside of an exiting trough. There were pockets of freezing temperatures this morning at lower elevation sites this morning, mostly in the Western Magic Valley. Areas that did not freeze last night, will likely see freezing temperatures tonight.
1213 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Breezy to windy today as the lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line develops today. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler today with increasing cloudiness late afternoon, with approach of a strong upper level trough.
Low RH tomorrow afternoon with values ranging from the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow, high pressure remains in control as we await our incoming trough just beyond the short term period. Highs will be similar tomorrow to what they were today with highs in the low to mid 70s, which is around 5 to 8 degrees above normal. The main focus for tomorrow will be the low afternoon RH with values ranging from the low to mid 30s. Winds remain light and variable through the period due to the high pressure centered over our area.
A cold front will start to slowly advance eastward later in the day, with temperatures falling from west to east during the evening hours.
143 PM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Continued cooler temperatures with dry north to east winds. Slight warming for Monday then cooler mid week.
A low level CU field has developed mainly west of I-55, while warm southerly winds are gusty at times due to a tight pressure gradient between a developing system over the High Plains and an East Coast ridge.
Dry conditions were seen across the region, although an area of low pressure is beginning to take shape over the WY/NE border region.
At 09Z (4 AM CDT), an amplified mid-level trough was moving eastward from the Intermountain West toward the Northern Plains. A cold front will progress eastward across KS late today and tonight as the aforementioned system moves northeast into the Dakotas. Hi-res model solutions show around 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE, and an enhancement in the lower atmospheric wind fields this evening would increase low level shear that could support supercellular structures. A more widespread batch of rainfall is expected to move into eastern KS tomorrow as the main upper level trough approaches. The higher QPF still looks to be south and east of the Kansas Turnpike where around one inch of rain is possible. A cold front will pass southeast across the terminals through mid morning hours of Monday and ceilings will drop to 3500 to 5000 feet with occasional light showers.
/CAB/ (Today through Monday) Slight ridge building across the southeastern US.
204 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Temperatures continue to moderate as high pressure and dry air will remain dominant across the region into early week.
(Rest of tonight) Upper ridging will continue to build across the Southeast, and keeping near normal temperatures in place through the overnight hours.
Otherwise, the story tomorrow is the heavy rainfall expected near/along the cold front and the potential for marginally severe thunderstorms with the morning storms.
857 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low off Baja California and another upper level low off the Carolina Coast, and an upper level trough axis over the Western United States. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate some high clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley producing partly cloudy skies.
1004 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The region remains between high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Summary: A deep and expansive low pressure will lift north through Minnesota bringing strong winds and some thunderstorms. Warm weather will last another 36 hours or so before a cold front passes, but before that occurs thereâs plenty of weather to happen. A large and expansive area of low pressure will lift north from the Central Plains and pass through the Red River Valley before exiting into Canada Monday. A deep upper low taps into the subtropical jet and advects a lot of tropical moisture northward.
320 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The longwave trough that brought a widespread taste of winter will linger in the region through tomorrow morning. Much cooler air will be in place, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s for lower elevations.
526 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The longwave trough that brought a widespread taste of winter will linger in the region through tomorrow morning. Much cooler air will be in place, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s for lower elevations.
729 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Low pressure offshore from the Carolina coasts will lift northward and away from the region early this week.
738 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Through Tonight) High pressure ridge will be over the region through Tonight. A weak trough to the east of the area this afternoon, will move to the south of the area this evening. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 50s inland, to the lower 60s coast.
323 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 Gusty winds, cooler temps, and increasing clouds can be expected today. The best chance of showers, storms, and high elevation mountain snow will be this evening into tomorrow morning as a cold front moves through, bringing much cooler temperatures to start the new work week.
318 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The longwave trough that brought a widespread taste of winter will linger in the region through tomorrow morning. Much cooler air will be in place, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s for lower elevations.
700 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The region remains between high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
748 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Temperatures continue to moderate as high pressure and dry air will remain dominant across the region into early week.
1036 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Low pressure offshore from the Carolina coasts will lift northward and away from the region early this week.
(This afternoon through Monday) An upper level ridge continues to intensify over much of the Southeast CONUS. Temperatures will gradually climb under the ridge, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s today and upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. An upper level trough currently positioned over the Rockies will amplifying as it moves into the southern Central plains tomorrow.
Some graupel even fell at low elevations as it often does in the spring under a cold upper trough. Some spots touched freezing last night but all areas will freeze tonight.
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (This evening through Monday) A breezy and warm fall day across West Central texas with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s areawide. Finally, the upper low begins to approach the western Big Country by 00Z Monday afternoon. Models seem to underdo these strong upper lows that have little low level moisture, but good mid level moisture.
At the surface, an expansive high pressure extending across a majority of the East Coast, which is maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east along the Reef. Temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 70s. From synopsis, High pressure over the Southeast United States and northern Florida will support gentle to moderate breezes overnight through Monday night.
731 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure. Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic will bring increasing clouds to eastern Virginia into Monday.
509 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Vigorous longwave trough and associated low pressure system slowly moving east and deepening this afternoon. Cold front has cleared most of the FA with gusty NW winds ongoing across the region.
Martin (This afternoon through Monday) An upper level ridge continues to intensify over much of the Southeast CONUS. Temperatures will gradually climb under the ridge, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s today and upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. An upper level trough currently positioned over the Rockies will amplifying as it moves into the southern Central plains tomorrow.
714 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 VFR conditions will persist again this forecast as dry south to southeast flow around high pressure to the east/northeast continues to funnel into the area. Cirrus should begin to thicken to a greater degree on Monday (as compared to the past several days) as this high gradually edges away from the region.
This storm system is much warmer compared to the one over the weekend.
712 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 High pressure will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next couple of days with continued mild dry conditions.
746 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The region remains between high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
125 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail with high pressure in control.
318 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Weak low pressure in our vicinity will bring occasional rain today, with some heavy downpours possible.
(Today through Tuesday) South breezes and a strong ridge overhead will make for another warm day across Middle Tennessee. A compact but strong low pressure system will move from the OK/TX Panhandle to the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday. On Tuesday, winds will become stronger and quite gusty as the low pressure approaches.
1123 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The longwave trough that brought a widespread taste of winter will linger in the region through tomorrow morning. Much cooler air will be in place, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s for lower elevations.
306 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Warm and dry weather continues today as high pressures persists to the east.
Warmer but still cool today with highs in the mid 40s to 50s.
Highs on Tuesday will be a little warmer with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
Downstream ridge amplification will occur steadily over the central Great Lakes beginning today, peaking Monday night with H5 heights reaching 580 dam, then breaking down by late Tuesday afternoon. This will allow for a continued period of daytime temperatures running some 14 to 17 degrees above normal both Monday and Tuesday with readings in the lower 70s.
Temperatures have dropped into the mid 40s in several deeper eastern valley locations while temperatures on some ridgetops linger in the upper 50s to around 60. High pressure continues to remain overhead with the 1025mb high pressure center located to the southeast of the region. This will continue to favor the mostly clear skies and warmer, above average temperatures. As a longwave trough continues to dig out of the Western CONUS, upper-level ridging will occur across the forecast area for Monday into Tuesday. Above average temperatures and dry weather will continue as a result of this ridging. The low coming out of the Rockies today is progged to eject out of the Plains into the Northern Plains through Monday morning.
Lift from the upper trough will be moving in 6 to 7 AM this morning, with models indicating a squall line developing from near San Angelo north to west of Abilene. While this line of storms will move east midday, isolated showers and thunderstorm may regenerate over the region in the Big Country, Concho Valley, Heartland later in the afternoon as the upper trough moves over. A few storms may persist north of I-20 overnight with a wraparound moisture in the upper low.
Showers may be possible near daybreak as an upper-trough swings east out of the Four Corners region and further destabilizes the environment.
1116 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Vigorous longwave trough and associated low pressure system slowly moving east and deepening this afternoon. Cold front has cleared most of the FA with gusty NW winds ongoing across the region.
245 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure racing quickly north- northeast across eastern ND. Cold front is well south and east of the area now, with tight pressure gradient in place across the region producing gusty northwesterly winds in most areas. Upper level analysis has trough across the Rockies into the Plains, with broad circulation centered over far northeast WY. Temps range from around 30 over portions of northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 40s over south central SD. However, as the low tracks into the Dakotas early this morning, moisture will wrap around the backside of the system into far northeast WY and parts of northwest SD into the northern Black Hills. As the low tracks into southeast Manitoba by midday, winds will start to gradually decrease during the afternoon.
1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (This evening through Monday) A breezy and warm fall day across West Central texas with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s areawide. Finally, the upper low begins to approach the western Big Country by 00Z Monday afternoon. Models seem to underdo these strong upper lows that have little low level moisture, but good mid level moisture.
On water vapor imagery, an elongated mid-level trough extended from a closed low over North Dakota southwestward through Arizona where an area of low pressure was strengthening. The aforementioned surface front will continue to work eastward across the area this morning as continued moisture transport occurs ahead of the digging Southwest trough axis. Long range models tend to agree on the development of a closed upper low over the southwestern CONUS late this week. The heavier rainfall with that system is likely to stay south of the area but light QPF does return to our forecast as an associated trough moves across KS. Initially, south winds will remain gusty before a cold front moves through terminals after 10Z.
Just ahead of the trough axis, a band of showers continues southeast of a Payson to Window Rock line as of 830 PM.
The system continues to tap into abundant moisture both from the Gulf in the lower levels, and from sub-tropical plume in the Pacific. Heavier N-S band will become focused along cold front by late morning into afternoon as it moves into eastern OK, and into western AR by early evening. Temperatures today will start out unseasonably mild ahead of the cold front with most areas in the low-mid 70s currently.
120 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 The region remains between high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
303 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure.
A quick clearing trend in the afternoon as high pressure approaches will warm temperatures well above freezing in the west. Meanwhile, the east will hold fairly steady near freezing through the day with continued patchy blowing snow a possibility in some spots. Tuesday and beyond expect a dry weather pattern with multiple dry cold front moving through the area. Clouds will begin to clear rather quickly in the afternoon, with warmer temperatures also limiting blowing snow concerns as VFR conditions return.
411 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Last main quiet day on tap as upper and sfc ridging should keep regime dry and pleasant with only some cirrus mainly across the area.
Widespread showers are expected this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through southern Wisconsin. Models have trended wetter for Tuesday, as the cold front stalls just to the east while low pressure approaches from the southwest. Temps will be cooler tomorrow behind the front and with the expected cloudy skies and rainy conditions.
1052 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Rest of tonight) Upper ridging will continue to build across the Southeast, and keeping near normal temperatures in place through the overnight hours.
1255 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Low pressure offshore from the Carolina coasts will lift northward and away from the region early this week.
Otherwise, the story tomorrow is the heavy rainfall expected near/along the cold front and the potential for marginally severe thunderstorms with the morning storms. A cold front reaches northwest Oklahoma just after midnight and there is a low chance of isolated showers/storm development over the aforementioned area late evening as the front approaches. Meanwhile, the center of the upper trough reaches New Mexico and deepens. This round of precipitation should exit to the east by mid-day or early afternoon, with a second round showers/storms likely late afternoon and evening as the upper low reaches west Texas.
Deep layer ridging anchored to our west will maintain a very dry layer aloft for the next several days. In addition, this ridge will also help to steer clear a couple of upper levels lows that will attempt to slide southeast towards the Gulf Coast. As these upper level lows get shoved northeast they will leave behind orphaned cold fronts that will fizzle before reaching the Florida Keys. At the surface, broad high pressure resides along the entirety of the Eastern Seaboard.
Showers will develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a low pressure system lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley.
Wraparound flow will allow snow showers to continue across the higher terrain favoring north-facing slopes with little to no additional accumulation expected before diminishing later Monday.
Discussion: A cold front is evident on radar imagery from near Lincoln, NE to near Salina, KS as of 07Z. This front will continue to sag slowly southeastward towards the forecast area this morning as a associated upper level low over western South Dakota lifts northeast and weakens as it moves through the northern Plains today. Another upper level low near the Four Corners region will begin to push east into the southern High Plains today. Monday night he upper level low will move from the southern High Plains into the Ozarks this will continue showers chance particularly across the southern and eastern CWA. Tuesday the upper low will move through the Ozarks into southern Illinois.
- While Monday will still be above normal, temperatures will fall throughout the day with cooler near to slightly above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. If you've been reading our discussions the past few days you'll be familiar with the low over the Dakotas this morning. It will continue to move north into Canada today and as it moves out cooler air moves in and the winds will fall. This will be due to the ending of the warm air advection aloft as the upper flow changes and the passage of a cold front. For the winds falling it is related to the lessing of the pressure gradient as the low moves farther away. For much of the day the cold frontal passage will be dry, but starting in the afternoon we should start to see some showers develop.
Temperatures will continue their warming trend with most areas reaching into the lower to mid 80s both afternoons. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but chances are too low to mention in the forecast and would likely be focused over the warmer waters of the Gulfstream if anywhere.
An amplified upper-level pattern across the Eastern CONUS is allowing strong ridging to build over FL through mid-week as a trough axis digs across the Plains. In response, high pressure remains in control with ENE winds (except near the coast in the afternoon where a sea breeze is possible) and dry, pleasant conditions. While the trough axis is digging in the Plains today, the feature is already becoming vertically stacked. Thus, this overall expectation is for this feature to be a much weaker influence when compared to the ridge axis. In response, the bulk of the energy should pass well to the north of the Florida peninsula, with only a weak attendant cold front passing through the area.
236 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 High pressure along with dry air and slightly above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently being observed from near Elk City northeastward into Woods County along a prefrontal trough. A break in rainfall is expected this afternoon as the cold front moves into eastern and southeastern OK.
As the rain moves into the region winds will shift out of the west to northwest behind a cold front. While there will be plenty of shear with this highly dynamic system, instability will be lacking for any kind of organized severe weather weather. this will bring continuing chances for rain through the day Tuesday and bring cooler temperatures as wealth highs in the 50s. Moisture is expected to continue wrapping around the low with enough lift to maintain some pops through Tuesday night over our eastern counties.
Mid-level longwave trough dropping from the Pacific Northwest will absorb the Baja closed low and the remaining energy from Hurricane Roslyn to further amplify over the Central US while it pushes a cold front through the Mississippi Valley. A corridor of increased moisture, primarily in the mid levels at first but eventually saturating through much of the column, will enter the area as the system's cold front approaches by Tuesday evening. As for rainfall, amounts have backed off a bit, and there is some concern that the numbers in the current forecast may be a bit on the high side given the dry pattern we are in, recent events that have ended up drier than forecast, and a weakening of the moisture transport as the system pushes eastward.
347 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure.
1153 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low off Baja California and another upper level low off the Carolina Coast, and an upper level trough axis over the Western United States. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate some high clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley producing partly cloudy skies.