Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
121 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED VALUES.
EXPECT A WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SOME WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
1250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SSE AS IT APPROACHES FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE LOW. STILL SEEING OBSERVATIONS AT MARSHFIELD AND MEDFORD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR UNKNOWN PRECIP. BUT NO INDICATIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE THOUGH. CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS FAR SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. BUT SATURATION WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE A HALF INCH OR INCH WILL LIKELY FALL. AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THE LOW OVERCAST ERODE FROM THE WEST AND ALSO THE EAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE.
357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT AROUND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND THE MAGIC VALLEY NEAR THE SNAKE RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TREASURE VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEY STAYING RELATIVELY COOLER.
1218 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUT AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SANDWHICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. 07/MB WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO.
On Monday morning, eastern Kansas remained firmly positioned under a pattern of fast upper level northwest flow while the low levels remained dry with a west to southwest breeze. A stream of short wave troughs continue to pass through the fast flow aloft, with one such weak trough crossing the central Plains states today. Any local lift with this trough is weak and the airmass quite dry so no precip and little to no cloud cover is expected. Cold advection will be minimal as well and temperatures will warm nicely into the lower to middle 60s. Winds will taper through the evening with weak high pressure building overhead. Temperatures will cool into the lower 30s with valleys a bit cooler given the light winds and clear skies.
212 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND AN ANTI- CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER UTAH. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOWED VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ADVECTING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 31 47 28 / 20 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 30 41 22 / 50 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 29 42 24 / 50 20 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 25 35 18 / 80 20 20 0 TN.
317 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 VERY WARM TEMPS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS. AND THEN WESTERN N TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.
1213 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582 DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVG INTO FAR SW ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS BEING DRIVEN BY THE LFQ OF A 150 KT JET STREAK AND A S/W TROF. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS COMBINING WITH THE UPPER FORCING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SNOW OVER EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL WI. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. AND AN INVERTED SFC TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PCPN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN MILD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. 850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN SD ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5C WARMER THAN ON MONDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE EAST. EVEN THIN CIRRUS CAN HAVE A LIMITING AFFECT ON THE HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SEEN AT KGCC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE TEMP FELL 4 DEGREES F AS A BAND OF THIN CLOUDS CROSSED THE STATION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT FORCING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
1227 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOST ROADWAYS HAVE DRIED OUT NICELY WITH ELEVATED WINDS BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT PATCHY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH NO WX CONCERNS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THIS MARK OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT FORCING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows falling into the lower 30s.
256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL EJECT TO THE N/NE AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IS CLIPPING SE GA/NE FL THIS AFTN. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S COAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA.
1221 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015 Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of Inland Northwest as high pressure remains strong.
A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
1243 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
WV imagery shows the upper cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is exiting the MS Valley. These two features have sandwiched a highly-amped ridge over the area. Baja ridge is still forecast to shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the ridge and sending it east. As the trough moves north, isolated -SHRA can't be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley. Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures over the next few days.
A WEAK DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
A LENGTHY COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN INTENSIFYING NOR'EASTER OFF NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST. TO THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 CENTRAL. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY AT CKV AND BNA. AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AND COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
MOST PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A MUCH STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A BIT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY.
334 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINTS MUCH TODAY SO STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEW POINTS FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH WILL LEAD TOWARDS THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE STRONGLY WEST AND NORTH TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF DIGGING ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGH. AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS STRONGLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW GET EJECTED NORTH NORTHEASTWARD.
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/ Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front already into the PB. Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to heavy rain potential. Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX. The upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. EXIT OF RAIN SLOWS DOWN A BIT TONIGHT WITH A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING A FLOW OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
A PAIR OF TROUGH CURRENTLY SURROUND THE MONTANA WITH ONE RUNNING FROM MANITOBA TO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS AND DOWN INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGH AN AREA WARM HIGH PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING INTO THE FORM OF A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGE WILL SURGE NORTH AND BRING WAA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN SET FOR THE LOW RH AND HIGH WIND AS WELL AS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRIVING MOST OF WEATHER. SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FORCING FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ALOFT AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
The gorgeous spring weather of today will come to an abrupt end on Tuesday as a strong cold front brings cold, windy and snowy conditions to much of central Idaho and western Montana awaken Tuesday morning. The key exception to this will be in the lower elevation valleys of east central Idaho. The radiative effects of the rising sun along with a shifting focus of the precipitation eastward should bring an end to the lowest elevation impacts around 8am or 9am PDT. Showery, windy conditions will persist throughout the day with temperatures some 20 degrees cooler than those experienced today.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MIGRATES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH RIDGING WORKING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP READINGS A BIT COOLER FROM ROUGHLY WEST BEND TO WAUKESHA AND POINTS EAST.
1116 AM MDT MON APR 13 2015 A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS UPCOMING AS A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE TODAY GIVES WAY TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEVADA ON TUESDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW.
202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front already into the PB. Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to heavy rain potential. Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX. The upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW WL LIFT NEWD YET SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA/MSA.
WHAT IS BRINGING THE REGION ALL THE RAIN IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BACK TO THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND HANG AROUND THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY RIDGE WILL DEPART SUCH THAT SOUTH WINDS CAN REV UP TOMORROW.
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO TX. AND THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERS THE WEST COAST. WITH SOME DEW POINT RECOVERY ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE UPPER LOW STAYS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AS SOME MID/HIGH BASED MOISTURE SPIRALING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WORKS INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR OKEMAH TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND GULF. WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
206 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A BAND OF CLOUDS MARKS THE LOCATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
313 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A DRY-SLOT SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD COINCIDE WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COINCIDES WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE. WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT.
329 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
334 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 TONIGHT-TUE: LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH BORDER AREA IN SOUTHEAST KS AS VORTICITY LOBE OVER SOUTHEAST OK ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW. TUE NIGHT-WED: PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. BUT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXES A BIT COOLER. WITH EITHER STRONG RETURN FLOW OR DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF AREA. GFS IS FASTER WITH UPPER LOW. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TUESDAY.
Slow moving thunderstorms along and north of a cold front will produce quick heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along and north of a cold front from Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood at 3 PM. With an upper low to the northwest in the South Plains, there is also a low potential for a land spout or brief tornado.
A WINDY START TO THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY MILD TODAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BENEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE CWA. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
CHANGES ENSUE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW THEN DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER UTAH BY WEDS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS SPREADING INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE OVERALL WET PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROFS DROPS INTO POSITION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES.