Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 70s, with upper 70s near the coast.
1048 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2016 An upper level trough will bring continued cooler temperatures today and Saturday.
346 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Breezy to windy conditions have been observed across the region as trof and low pressure system move further into the Northwest. Another mid-level disturbance rounding the high pressure ridge centered over Colorado has made a marked northwest turn over the past 12 hours and is making progress into southern CA. Cooler temperatures are expected overall as a cold front progresses southward across the state through Saturday.
The area is running 1-2 degrees cooler than the grids, but still expect temperatures to warm quickly thanks to afternoon sunshine.
1136 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure shifting over the forecast area will keep hot and mainly dry conditions in place for another 24 hours. Will need a little time to get cells firing with bulk of convection delayed until after 1400, but should still see some activity and potential for lightning over the higher peaks. Pattern shift arrives tonight as the ridge shifts east and another long wave trough slides into the western U. Gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph should be expected as gradients tighten a bit with the trough moving into the Great Basin.
319 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Upper level ridge continues across the Central Plains this afternoon. Weak upper trough was filling across central and northeast Kansas this morning. Forecast soundings suggest mixing down from around 850 mb with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Overall forecast the next few days will be modulated by weaknesses in the ridge and any remnant convective features (such as mesoscale convective vortices and outflow boundaries). Extended the low chances as far east as Enid, where the HRRR suggests isolated storms could develop later this afternoon (due to a weakened cap).
359 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure south of the area will bring unseasonably warm conditions across the region to begin the weekend.
Behind this activity, a clearing sky was noted as surface ridging builds into the forecast area.
241 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Remnant MCV clusters noted across west TX are within a weakness of the overall upper level ridge.
1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Upper level ridge is building over the region today. Since highs yesterday were up in the low 90s across most of the western 1/2 of the CWFA, and with warmer temperatures aloft over the area think we should easily get above the MAV and MET guidance so I bumped highs today a couple of degrees across the area. Carney Saturday still looks dry and hot as the upper ridge will build in over the area. Will keep going with highs in the lower to mid 90s which is above MOS guidance.
High temps will reach the mid 90s along and north of I-10 with lower 90s south and somewhat cooler temps at the beaches.
311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 The region is currently under high pressure. Expect these conditions to continue through Saturday with highs once again in the lower 90s with afternoon heat indicies in the mid 90s.
Upper air analysis shows a deep trough over the far NE CONUS while our area is under broad scale upper ridging, other than the weakening upper low over our area.
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A ridge that has been dominating the majority of the CONUS has begun its eastward progression at 700 and 850mb towards the East Coast. There is a trough behind this ridge that is centered over the central Canadian provinces. This is obviously well off to the north and will have ridging behind it with another trough hot on its tail; the expectation is for this wave to get its act together through the weekend. A persistent ridging over the area continues the stagnant conditions of 90 degree temperatures which is 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normal. The influence of the next trough begins to make its influence for the latter part of the weekend into the first part of the week.
A Pacific cold front and upper level disturbance will move through the reigon late this afternoon/overnight.
144 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will prevail today before moving offshore this weekend.
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A ridge of high pressure is well established over the eastern and is promoting a sunny sky with very warm temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s in a few spots. Another sunny day is expected for Saturday with the ridge further entrenching itself over the region. to the low to perhaps mid 90s elsewhere across the central and southern Valleys. and perhaps an isolated storm or two in the late afternoon along the higher terrain. A strong ridge of high pressure will remain positioned across the Southern Appalachian Region through the rest of the weekend.
The highest heat index readings will be across western Wisconsin into northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Dew points could end up being a couple of degrees cooler so heat index values could be a few degrees cooler. Saturday looks to be another warm day across the region but lingering showers and storms and cloud debris from them, really complicates the high temperature forecast. High pressure then edges in from the east and pushes the warm front west of the Mississippi River.
Temperatures currently running in the lower 70s north, the mid 70s through the I-10 corridor and near 80 at the coast.
Otherwise will watch for potential convective redevelopment near the MCVs, especially with warmer forecast temperatures which will help to further reduce CIN. This morning, a few showers and weak thunderstorms may move into far western or northwestern Oklahoma, mainly west of a Woodward to Cheyenne line close to a weak mid/upper level trough.
The upper level pattern in large part features a broad ridge across the lower 48.
12z 850 mb analysis shows a weak trough extending from about SHV to LRD and deep 850 mb moisture over SE into deep south Texas. At 300 mb, a weak trough axis extends from SE Arkansas into E Texas and another deeper trough axis extends from SW OK into deep south Texas. Lift provided by the two troughs coupled with abundant moisture and low convective temps should allow for another active sea breeze day.
A weak trough of low pressure and deep moisture will remain down across south and central FL oriented mainly west to east. Along coastal areas of NE FL and SE GA will see drier and more stable air closer to the ridge axis will help suppress and push most convection to the west and northwest. A range in temps from the lower/mid 90s inland to the mid/upper 80s along the coast with the seabreeze.
317 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates ridging extending across Colorado with axis centered across our CWA. Saturday: Upper level ridge shifts east while trough deepens in this west.
A thunderstorms complex will move across northeast portions of central Indiana this morning as a warm front over northern Indiana and Ohio moves north into the great lakes. Hot and dry weather will occur Saturday as a strong upper ridge of high pressure builds into the Mississippi valley.
Upper level ridge will become established across South Texas during the short term part. Despite ridging aloft, daytime heating along with the seabreeze may be enough to trigger isolated convection both today and Saturday.
(Issued 240 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016) A large area of high pressure remains in place over the eastern U. This will also keep lows lower than guidance suggest in the lower to mid 60s.
Weak surface gradient under a building upper ridge has most of the Ohio Valley well on the way to 90+ degree temps, in many locations for the first time this season. Height rises continue into the weekend, so Saturday afternoon highs should be another couple degrees warmer than today, with lower 90s becoming widespread and a few mid 90s possible.
Several sites across n LA this morning in the mid to upper 80s, with the remainder of the CWA reporting in the low to mid 80s.
However, there is a weak subtle trough across the western high plains, not really captured by the sparse upper air network. This weak trough will likely drift east northeast onto the plains this afternoon and evening. The models then hint that some convection could develop northeast of the area Friday night along a southward moving cold front, then sliding east southeast through IA through daybreak Saturday, but again will keep any convection out of our area at this time.
For the DFW Extended---A broad/diffuse trough axis will sag southward towards the Red River which should be enough to trigger some isolated to widely scattered convection. A weakness in the ridging aloft should allow the sea breeze to be active again today.
Convection in the coming days looks to be more enhanced however, as a weak area of low pressure drifts ewd into the plains and lower MS River valley. The uper ridge is forecast to make a return towards the end of the pd, which will end our rain chances and likely send our temps back on the up-tick.
148 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, mainly late Saturday into Saturday evening with the arrival of a cold front. Otherwise, the forecast for this afternoon and tonight will be tricky, with our area lodged on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge. SPC has us in a marginal risk, which is appropriate given the higher instability that will be present.
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will continue to keep the region dry this evening with temperatures remaining chilly for this time of year. High pressure at the surface will slowly drift to the east through the night which will result in much of the afternoon today and most of tonight dry as well. Cloud coverage will slowly increase from the SW after 06Z tonight as a warm front lifts across the region. This warm front will increase moisture at the sfc and will result in strong WAA aloft. This MCS will be following the warm frontal boundary aloft.
/issued 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ Skies are sunny across the forecast area this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. /issued 335 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ An upper level height ridge will remain centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley today through Saturday. High temperatures this afternoon will likely reach into the lower and middle 90s with lows tonight ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Stagnant conditions associated with the upper ridge and weak surface winds will likely lead to a period of poor air quality for today.
205 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Typical summer like forecast for this weekend with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.
An area of low pressure and cold front is tracking across the region this morning.
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Our late week warm-up has begun, and at 2pm the mercury at the Nashville Airport had reached 90 degrees--for the first time since June 1st (when the high at BNA was 92).
Tonight THROUGH Saturday Southwest flow ahead of a Pacific low pressure trough moving across the Pacific northwest and northern California will bring increased mid and upper level moisture into western Wyoming supporting widely scattered showers and isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms across the western and northern mountains.
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, mainly late Saturday into Saturday evening with the arrival of a cold front. Warm front was finally mixing northeast through the forecast area this afternoon in wake of morning MCS and departing cloud cover. Outflow from this complex remains the wild card for Saturday and TSRA chances later in the day ahead of main cold front. Deep layer shear initially lacking until main cold front approaches in the evening. 0-6km only around 15-20 knots during the day but Pre- frontal trough could develop some convection in this unstable environment. Main cold front to move through late evening into overnight and we could see line of convection develop in Michigan early evening and come south ahead of the front.
High pressure continues over the area but we will begin to see some decent moisture return in the form of mid to high clouds developing this afternoon. The ridge aloft and the SE low level flow slowly increase moisture from the gulf of Mexico and Atlantic through the short term.
/issued 444 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Broad 500 mb troffing will prevail over much of the South Central Plains states through Saturday.
Southwest flow will continue across the region through the weekend as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. Moisture working north ahead of this trough will start to spread into Utah tonight and remain in place through the weekend.
/issued 1004 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ Weak upper ridging remains in place this morning centered to our southeast, with plentiful moisture continuing to stream over the peninsula.
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A large area of high pressure remains in place over the eastern U. This will also keep lows lower than guidance suggest in the lower to mid 60s.
A cold front sits to the west over Spokane and is currently moving toward north central Idaho and western Montana. Winds are also going to be breezy this afternoon ahead of the cold front. There may be too much dry air over north central Idaho and west central Montana for much shower and thunderstorm development but there is a chance in the forecast since the trough will be overhead.
110 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 During the night an upper-deck cyclone was cut-off just off the WA Coast while a STRONG mid-upper deck high was centered primarily over AZ.
Compared to yesterday we are running about 5 degrees warmer so far with slightly higher boundary layer moisture. Given the current trends and expected boundary layer mixing expect highs in the lower 90s in the most areas. 15 For 18Z TAFs: With high pressure at the sfc/aloft layered across the region, VFR conds are xpcted through the TAF period.
Temperatures will be seasonal this afternoon, with highs in the lower 90s across much of the area. Again, IF storms develop this afternoon, a few could persist through the evening hours as the low-level jet sets up.
342 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will begin to build east across the region tonight into Saturday. A warm front will approach on Saturday with a cold front crossing the region later Saturday night. Clouds will gradually diminish tonight as a weak upper ridge begins to build east toward the region. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 40s north and mid 40s to near 50 across the remainder of the region. A few showers may start to move into western areas later Saturday afternoon in advance of an approaching warm front. It will be cooler along the coast with an onshore flow expected to keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Intense low pressure will approach the region from the northwest.
643 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure in firm control of the local weather pattern this afternoon and very little will change this upcoming weekend. Tomorrow will be much like today with highs warming into the lower 70s.
725 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will extend over the region tonight. This Evening and Tonight: A cold front was through the forecast area and skies had cleared for all but immediate coastal Georgia to the south of Savannah. Dry and much cooler high pressure will then build from the north overnight. Strong cold air advection to the region will help promote mixing in the low-lvls and prevent winds from decoupling overnight. Deep layered high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
725 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight, settling over the region much of the upcoming week. cold and dry high pressure is building into the area in the wake of a strong cold front. Clear skies, dry weather and seasonal temperatures expected to persist through the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west.
757 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Quiet, clear, and cooler weather is still anticipated for tonight as the cP airmass underneath a broad surface anticyclone centered over IN/IL continues to influence the TN Valley.
/Issued 946 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ Despite being behind a cold front, temperatures were still several degrees above seasonal norms this afternoon. Surface ridging along with low dewpoints will result in chilly overnight temps.
A weak cold front is making its way south tonight, and looks to bring a few showers to the area tomorrow morning. The shallow moist air present will continue to potentially support rain showers, particularly with the presence of the mid-level trough swinging through and lower level atmospheric moisture ripples as the boundary dissipates. As high pressure begins to build in behind the front to kick off the next work week, shower chances should continue to remain in the lower end of the spectrum.
More great flying weather is in store through the forecast period with another beautiful ridge and a plentiful supply of dry air.
H5 ridge is expected to persist over the region for the first half of the weekend. However, an old cut off low over the southwest conus will get picked up by a trof entering the west coast.
645 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 As mentioned in earlier discussions, moisture began to spread over the southern half of the forecast area during the morning ahead of a closed low pressure system centered over south-central Arizona. Shower activity will increase over the Four Corners region and the San Juan and Abajo mountains as the low center shifts to northeast Arizona overnight. At higher elevations, snow will begin to accumulate but 7H temperatures near 3 deg C should limit accumulations to areas above 11000 feet and will limit road impacts in the high passes of the San Juan's until after midnight. Rain and snow continue into Saturday as the low center moves across northwest New Mexico to the border area south of Durango by Saturday evening.
1141 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis depicted a mid to upper-level low over Arizona, ridging over the Great Plains and a full-latitude trough along the Atlantic Coast. In the low levels, an elongated ridge axis stretched from the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes into the central Rockies as of 18z with slightly better mixing and gradient flow supporting temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the southern portion of our area. Strengthening gradient flow and downslope-induced warming associated with this lee trough will yield another seasonably warm day with high temperatures in the lower 70s.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a sprawling area of high pressure that extended from the southern Great Lakes into the northern and central Plains. That would place max temperatures in the lower 60s near Lake MI, middle to upper 60s elsewhere.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen late this afternoon through midnight as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. For Saturday night, expect a mostly clear sky and light winds with overnight lows in the low/mid 40s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early November.
930 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Cool high pressure will build/extend into the Carolinas from the north and west through the weekend.
605 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis depicted a mid to upper-level low over Arizona, ridging over the Great Plains and a full-latitude trough along the Atlantic Coast. In the low levels, an elongated ridge axis stretched from the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes into the central Rockies as of 18z with slightly better mixing and gradient flow supporting temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the southern portion of our area. Strengthening gradient flow and downslope-induced warming associated with this lee trough will yield another seasonably warm day with high temperatures in the lower 70s.
Temperatures ranged from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. To put this into perspective, normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the low to mid 40s, so highs today are some 25 to 30 degrees above normal! Winds are from the west to southwest and generally 10 mph or less. Temperatures should be very similar on Saturday, and possibly even a few degrees warmer. A broad upper level ridge will slowly push east into the Great Lakes region through the weekend. A slight cool down arrives with a cold front passage mid week, but mid level temperatures remain on the warm side for this time of year. The cold front will also trigger showers as it tracks across the region.
A weak MCV from earlier convection along the Rio Grande is currently moving eastward along the Highway 90 corridor near Hondo. For Saturday night, the pattern begins starts to become a little more active as the upper low currently over the desert southwest begins to open and move eastward.
/issued 334 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ Nicely stacked cyclone was creeping ENE across SE Arizona early this afternoon upstream of an upper ridge axis poised over the middle of the Lone Star State. A weak trough was attempting to erode this trough, but so far ascent and low level saturation have been lackluster with this wave. Lift there will be aided by a zone of weakening upper diffluence ahead of the cyclone lifting NE across the Four Corners.
946 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Despite being behind a cold front, temperatures were still several degrees above seasonal norms this afternoon. Surface ridging along with low dewpoints will result in chilly overnight temps.
The lowest readings will occur across the eastern Ozarks were mins will be in the upper 30s.
954 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build over our region though Saturday. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
Cold front moving into north-central FL this evening with associated widely scattered showers. Expecting a bit more coverage of precipitation over the warmer/more unstable adjacent coastal waters than over land. A northeast surge is trailing the cold front so will likely see some higher winds/wind gusts later tonight along the Volusia/N. Tempo MVFR conditions will occur with any isolated to scattered showers that develop along southward moving cold front overnight, or those that move onshore after the boundary passes late overnight into Saturday. Breezy NE winds up to 14-16 knots, with gusts up to around 20 knots will develop into Sat behind the front areawide with a tighter pressure gradient in place with strong high pressure building into the region behind the front. Cold front across N/C FL will continue to press southward across the coastal waters overnight.
No significant highlights in the short term period as a mid level ridge/700-500mb axis propagates across central ND continuing with an overall clear sky and above normal temperatures.
803 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Saturday. A cold front will pass through Saturday night.
Models suggest some high clouds will stream southeast over the western ridge and across the northeast cwa overnight into Saturday. but still may be cooler than guidance to the east if cloud remains thin enough. Highs were able to warm to the low/mid 70s to the southwest to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon. but may start out a little warmer. A broad ridge of high pressure with anomalously high 500mb heights will continue to dominate the central CONUS through the weekend.
Otherwise, a quiet and seasonably mild night as high pressure dominates. Despite optimal conditions to cool, temperatures will mild tonight as a thermal ridge at 850mb of 5-8 deg c hovers overhead and holds temps in the low/mid 40s. Saturday will be another spectacular day, as high pressure remains in control and keeps winds light from the west/northwest around 10mph in the afternoon.
705 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures for the weekend. Stratocu across Ohio and northern West Virginia will dissipate with sunset, otherwise clear and cool under High pressure, with temperatures a blend of model guidance.