Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE ENTIRE STATE OF TEXAS AS THE STATE TEMPORARILY RESIDES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED BETWEEN TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND WEST. THE FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
Our region will be under a brief period of ridging between systems tonight and Tuesday.
949 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
630 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT NW WIND AND COOLER LOWS IN THE 40S STILL ON TAP FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND CLEARS THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DIP MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WY/UT FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW AFFECTING AREAS FROM KGTF SOUTH AND EAST.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE THE STRATUS. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AND WITH A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AREAS BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
1053 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 UNUSUALLY RECORD WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
Satellite trends indicate that the low stratus is oozing southward now reaching KCGI and just north of KPAH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SNOW BRIEFLY ACCUMULATES ON SOME OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS ALONG I-5, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POISED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 50-60KTS WHILE SFC-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-350 M2/S2 WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPEPR 60S- AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.
WHILE THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT WILL STEADILY OUTRUN THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL TROF AS THE LATTER PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A DEEP LYR RIDGE CENTERED BTWN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE N.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AS ARE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
742 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 AVIATION RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND END TONIGHT WITH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING. A DRY SLOT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS MAY DROP IN OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH ROTATES IN SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 62 38 64 / 10 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 62 38 65 / 10 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 59 32 65 / 10 10 0 10.
NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE TONIGHT AS 700MB LOW MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN CO AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
/ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD OUT OF THE NWRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH TEMP TRENDS REMAINING SEASONABLY WARM THX IN PART TO A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN QUICKLY LIFTING OVER THE SE STATES. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY FILL BACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY HEADING INTO MID WEEK. THIS STILL LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL GULF REGION EARLY WED. SEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS THEN XPCTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES HINTING AT A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION THU INTO FRI.
519 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 GUSTY WINDS ALONG A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TIGHTENING HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT APPROACHING CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A cold front will move through West Central Texas Tuesday. The trough axis will trail to the southwest across the southern Plains into northern Mexico.
BAND OF CU ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY 850 MB TROF SKIRTED SRN MIDDLE TN, BUT WAS NOW DECREASING AND WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 77 /ISSUED 221 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS CONTINUED TO DRAG LOWER CLOUDS REALLY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DRYING HAS LIMITED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING TO THE MID 60S AND EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE LOW TO MID 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CENTER OF DEEP UPPER LOW HAS DROPPED TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHED NORTH THROUGH IDAHO.
655 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 UNUSUALLY RECORD WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
DEPICTS SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A CLOSING MIDDLE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WASATCH REGION OF THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF A FLATTENING REGIONAL SCALE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29 N 72 W. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. DETAILS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 90 W. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS.
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH AS SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BUT STILL HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 40S.
703 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
657 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.
POCKETS OF FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL RESIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER TONIGHT'S ROUND OF OVERCAST SKIES WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
600 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
Upper ridge building in between the old upper system nearing the Great Lakes and the next deep system developing over the Central Rockies. Have kept Tuesday rather warm given temps in south central Kansas in the low-mid 50s today. Dry cold front moves through the forecast area Tuesday night, as the next upper low moves across Nebraska and to the north northeast dragging the front behind.
/ISSUED 313 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SPREAD SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
817 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT TRAILING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
804 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING.
652 PM MST MON DEC 14 2015 ONGOING PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW HAS SUPPORTING BACKING LL WINDS WITH WINDS NOW MORE NE ACROSS THE FA. NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE TONIGHT AS 700MB LOW MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN CO AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
/ISSUED 259 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN RETURNING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
546 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015 INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RECORD RAINFALL TO IOWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STATE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BEST FOG POTENTIAL IS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THE MOST TO NEARLY A DEFAULT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY. AND IF TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. FAVORING LATER ONSET TO PRECIPITATION ALLOWING FOR ICE INTRODUCTION IN THE NORTHWEST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW FREEZING WITH NO ICE BEING INTRODUCED FROM ABOVE. WHICH INDICATES CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ON A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO AROUND HILL CITY KANSAS. BUT GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE IN THE 4-6 RANGE IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. INITIAL POSITION OF EXITING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCES FOR LIGHT -SW OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
The latest surface analysis at 20Z (2 pm cst) indicated an area of low pressure in northeast IA with a trough extending southwest into extreme northwest MO. A short wave trough axis extended from an upper low in northeast IL into west central IL. These showers are expected to shift into NE-east central IL early this evening as the trough axis rotates through the area.
437 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016 UPPER TROUGH HAS SHEARED INTO TWO PIECES. THERE WILL BE SHARP COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MAY NOT BE SO GREAT. WITH THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A SHORT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A HIGH WIND THREAT BUT IT MAY KEEP THE WINDS BLOWING IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND WAVE HOT SPOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND INLAND AND BRING CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. WIND COULD CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY WITH THE WEAK TROUGH.
Airmass associated with high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is bringing us our freezing temperatures early this morning. That will mean a cooler day behind northeast to east winds, despite some sunshine. They should pick up as well as another in a series of low pressure systems crosses by to our north. Cloud cover through the day should limit our temperatures to the low to mid 60s.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS WIND. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH A 10-15 DEGREE INCREASE OVER TUESDAY.
352 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 High pressure ridge will slowly move east today as the next slipper system approaches the area from the northwest. With winds becoming more southeast with the ridge moving east of the area, some warm air advection will occur, causing temps to rise back into the 50s over the whole area. Cooler weather expected off and on with surges of colder Arctic air creeping into the Midwest throughout the forecast. That being said, mainly southerly winds for tonight will keep the lows above normal and brisk winds will stay up in advance of a developing storm system moving into the region tonight. Weak convergence on the leading edge of the frontal boundary as the low passes across northern Illinois and into the Great Lakes. with the better chances to the north associated with the low center.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE JET ACROSS THE AREA SETTLING TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT DRY AS IT WASHES OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE RIDGE EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA BECOMES ZONAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH.
ALTHOUGH STG MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MOST AREAS WET/SHOWERY INTO WED EVENING AND HAVE SIDED W/COOLER BLENDED TEMPS SANS SE CORNER. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THE LARGE SCALE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
437 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 THE SHORT TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE REGION.
Wrap around precipitation associated with an exiting low pressure system will continue to cause steady light snow over the Glacier Park region down the into the Seeley/Swan area through the morning hours. The remainder of the region will remain under a cool and unstable trough. A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockieson Wednesday allowing for a warming and drying trend.
604 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY. WARMER/WINDY WEDNESDAY.
333 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY BEFORE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IT WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS TEXAS. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH MT. AHEAD OF THE LOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS INITIAL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN SD THIS MORNING. THEN AS MAIN TROUGH/LOW APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN SD WED NIGHT.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR AN EXCEPTIONALLY WINDY DAY WITH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IMPACTING THE AREA. LATEST TREND IS TO POSSIBLY PULL THE HIGHEST WINDS A BIT NORTHWARD BUT AT THE SAME TIME LESS PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED SO BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOST ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING AND MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM. WEDNESDAY SEES STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS RISE TO END THE WEEK AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A few of the high res models are doing better with this shallow moist air and have trended the near term forecast in their direction. The clouds are keeping temperatures up just above freezing in the east, but they still could make a brief drop around daybreak. Airmass associated with high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is bringing us our freezing temperatures early this morning. That will mean a cooler day behind northeast to east winds, despite some sunshine. They should pick up as well as another in a series of low pressure systems crosses by to our north. Cloud cover through the day should limit our temperatures to the low to mid 60s.
449 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER S AR. THEN AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP BACK THE 80S FOR A GOOD WHILE WITH 70S FOR HIGH AND AROUND 50 OR SO GIVE OR TAKE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES AREA-WIDE AS H85 TEMPS JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FROM THE 50S TONIGHT TO THE 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
Ahead of the upper trough a cold front will advance into western Kansas from late afternoon into the evening. For tonight, the cold front continues to advance south with a slight chance for thunderstorms, possibly with small hail, and mainly east of Dodge City. Current thoughts the high winds will not last long enough for a High Wind Warning, but day shift may need to evaluate again with new models. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
302 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY. WARMER/WINDY WEDNESDAY.
UPR RIDGE POSN REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THOUGH COOL AIR WITH CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE CROSSING THE REGION IS STILL KEEPING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. AFTER ABV FREEZING TEMPS TDA. THE LATEST METRO-MODEL ROAD TEMPERATURE FCSTS FOR NRN WI INDICATED PAVEMENT TEMPS WL NOT COOL TO NR FREEZING UNTIL 10PM-MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE FAIRLY NARROW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES TANKING BY 2 TO 3 PM IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW 20S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
402 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 IT WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WERE GRADUALLY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO AR. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN ON MON. MAX READINGS WL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MON.
331 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. AS WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY SPREAD TO MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY START TO BRING HUMIDITIES UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING THE PEAK OF THE FIRE DANGER.
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL START US UNDER COOLER AIR BUT MOST LIKELY DRY.
425 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PRODUCE A QUIET DAY AND EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
200 AM PDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
The aforementioned cold front will advance southeast across our northern and central counties overnight. Passage of an upper level trough to the north of the area on Wednesday will drive a cold front through the area by Wednesday afternoon.
THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.
321 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 IT WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
As of 06Z a cold front was stretched along north Alabama and Georgia.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA EXTENDS INTO EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS IT MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.
657 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
345 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016 WV imagery shows a broad, flat ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this A. , with an upper trough over NW MT traversing the upper CONUS. Ahead of this feature, lee-side troughing on the Front Range will induce breezy return flow later today. Overnight, the aforementioned upper trough will send a strong cold front into the area, w/latest models pegging fropa at KMAF ~ 09Z Wednesday.
526 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS A H5 CLOSED LOW PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.