Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
241 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 Little change to the going weather situation is expected over the next 24 hours, with expansive surface ridging expected to remain in control over the region. Lows tonight should again dip into the upper 50s and lows 60s, though a few of the usual cool spots may fall into the low or mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks. Thursday should be all but identical today, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies.
/issued 358 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ Upper level ridging is impacting most of the country with an upper trough over New Mexico and Colorado. This upper trough will allow for showers and storms to develop today across southeast New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and the Upper Trans Pecos southward to the Rio Grande.
139 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL. A GREAT STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
A NICE AFTERNOON WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S IN MOST AREAS AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERVIEW: LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING. DOWNSTREAM FROM A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION STILL FINDING ITSELF STILL WITHIN THE DOMAIN OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUT WITH AN ILL- DEFINED FRONT FOLDING DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN. ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE 70S ALTHOUGH CLOUDS (AND SUBTLE COOLER AIR BLEEDING INTO FROM THE NORTH) MAY KNOCK READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START THURSDAY OFF BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ABERDEEN INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND WEAKEN THEIR INTENSITY AT THE SAME TIME.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN AND REMAIN THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL RISING HEIGHTS 2-4 DAM AND 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING 580DM UNDER A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO APPROACH 106-108F AND THE CENTRAL DESERTS OF ARIZONA TO REACH THE LOW 100S. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES READING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. A DRY SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
VERY WARM THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WINDS ALOFT BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOST OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A 500MB LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. RED TIDE CONDITIONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL BEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND IMPACT BEACHES AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AS WELL AS BOCA CHICA BEACH.
/ISSUED 1104 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ A PLEASANT FIRST DAY OF FALL IS UNDERWAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ALREADY RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AREA WIDE AND EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. /ISSUED 408 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL KEEP BENIGN CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SW. A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN CONUS.
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH VERY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK AND WAVY COLD FRONT WAS ALONG OR A BIT SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN LOWER. THEN RETURN NORTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SUB-850MB WINDS VEER SE-ERLY. WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE AL/GA/FL JUNCTURE SWIRLING AROUND.
656 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUSTAIN THIS STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RELATIVELY DEEP MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECASTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
As a tropical area of low pressure aloft drifts north from the Gulf.
151 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
A RELATIVELY DEEP MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECASTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC A LEE SIDE TROUGH PERSISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE BULK OF FORCING WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN SD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN FA. BUT THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
Have maintained highest pops in north central Kansas through the night and into Thursday near the upper level trough axis. Lows tonight should cool into the low to mid 60s with highs Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s with the higher temperatures expected southeast of Interstate 35.
651 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. RIDGING WILL REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDS ONTO THE REGION.
THE MOST RECENT LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL AN ELONGATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DUG DEEP INTO EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS WEAKLY LINKED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. RESULTING IN AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES.
230 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODERATE CU FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WY. THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO DOMINATE THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN GULF PROMOTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity to continue across SE NM the higher terrain regions through this evening. /issued 358 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ Upper level ridging is impacting most of the country with an upper trough over New Mexico and Colorado. This upper trough will allow for showers and storms to develop today across southeast New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and the Upper Trans Pecos southward to the Rio Grande.
As an upper trough weakens and moves east tonight, most of the light showers will be moving east of Dodge City. For Thursday, upper troughing will continue to move away from the Central Plains with skies becoming mostly sunny. A weak cold front moves into the Wakeeney to Syracuse area late in the afternoon with light south to southwest winds shifting light north. Highs warm into the mid 80s, except slightly cooler east of Dodge City where lingering clouds are forecast.
A CU FIELD IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
THE DRIVER FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER AREA OR OTHER AREAS OF PCPN THAT MAY DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT PCPN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. SO AT THIS POINT ND POINTS IN THE FA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THOSE IN MN.
238 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA FROM FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY.
440 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODERATE CU FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WY. THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO DOMINATE THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT A SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACRS CNTRL TX/NRN MEXICO ALONG WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING TX/SRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM DETERMINISTIC THAT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WL AFFECT THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES WEST OF THE CWA/MSA.
314 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRINGING IN HIGHER PW AIR. 8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHER END APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WEAK LIFT UNDER THIS LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CIRCULATION AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER WAS HELPING TO KEEP MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH SOME OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TONIGHT AND HIGH ON THURSDAY.
The upper vort center then retrogrades around the eastern edge of the H5 ridge axis and moves farther away from the CWA.
WARMER TOMORROW. THE WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE. TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
AND THURSDAY SFC OBS AND RADAR SHOWED A SUBTLE COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO A 30 KT LLJ ASCENDING A WARM FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HUDSON BAY HIGH RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. WITH PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH INTO NE WI. MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH.
123 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 500 MB RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WESTERN US WITH CORRESPONDING LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN US AND THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW.
UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN UP AND PROGRESS EASTERLY. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUPPORT BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH AMERICA EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN BY LATE WEEKEND AS TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to suppress rainfall today and tonight. High temperatures will likely fall a degree or two, as the 850 MB thermal ridge pushes slowly west. It will also be cooler tonight with lighter winds and drier air. Surface dew points will be in the 50s tonight, with lows falling into the lower and mid 60s.
156 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND.
At the surface, broad southeast flow continued across Kansas around a large area of high pressure centered over Great Lakes.
415 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BRING PATCHY CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL THEN BRING A FRESH COOL DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN TODAY.
153 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
602 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A FEW CIRRUS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD BE THIN. A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE LIGHT EAST BREEZE. THERMAL PROFILES GET A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA ON MOST OF THE MODELS ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OH. NOT SURE WHY IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE FLOW IS OFF THE WATER.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER COLORADO IS PROJECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST GRADIENT WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE COVERING CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH PERSISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. A TROUGH WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL 88D WINDS AND UPR-LVL OBS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB INTO CO/NM. A TROF WAS IN BETWEEN OVER CO/NM WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS WITHIN THE WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LVL JET.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER GEORGIA WILL BEGIN RETROGRADING WESTWARD TODAY. /ISSUED 251 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U. THIS HIGH WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH OVER THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
330 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
244 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR SW OVER NRN MEXICO HAS ALLOWED FOR A NICE WARM-UP OF SOME 30 DEGREES AFTER LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN RETREATING SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED BROAD TROF ACROSS THE SERN STATES SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD OUR REGION.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN GULF PROMOTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
1247 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 High pressure ridge still keeping the sunny and warm conditions over Central Illinois this morning. By 15z have warmed a few degrees over same time yesterday, but aloft is a degree or so cooler, so expect a little offset as we mix out today. Dry origins of this low level easterly flow and general subsidence associated with the high and a building ridge over the middle of the U.
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER IN RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE PIVOTING CLOCKWISE.
47 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD OF SE TEXAS WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TODAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
406 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE CONUS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE TN VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SW END OF AN UPPER TROUGH VCNTY OF THE 4-CORNERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PRECIP THUS FAVORS SCATTERED CONVECTION SRN ZONES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING AREA NERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT THAT SHOULD THEN SAG SWD TROUGH THURSDAY THUS FAVORING WRN ZONES FOR RAIN CHANCES.
An associated cold front will be forced into the central Plains as well. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along this cold front. However, there is some question as to how far east the cold front and associated storms will push. The GFS, on the other hand, pushes the cold front a bit further east across the Plains and brings showers and thunderstorms, again, into the northwestern CWA. On Thursday, the upper level disturbance weakens and the cold front stalls across the Plains.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
327 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS. 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING UPPER LEVEL/TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS/LIFT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE FAR WESTERN AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE/AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
Also, they have formed along a weak convergence zone in an inverted trough laying north of the Appalachians. Thus have low temps a little warmer for then, compared to tonight's lows, which mostly are in the 50s.
1217 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ 15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO FEATURES OF NOTE: A WEAK/ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH GEORGIA, AND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN, AND DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S, A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER SE.
333 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
347 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
1115 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE PLAINS HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING SINCE MID MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15-18Z. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO ALL OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 12Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY AS UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
344 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. RIDGING WILL REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDS ONTO THE REGION.
THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS TRENDING A BIT COOLER FROM PREVIOUS AND IS PREFERRED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS GIVING US PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS AND FINALLY A CHANCE AT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS.
ALSO FOCUSED ON THE GUSTY E/NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER AND MORE AUTUMN-LIKE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. THE BULK OF THIS RAIN WILL FORM ALONG A NEWD EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH SD/NEB/MINNESOTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER S/ERN ONTARIO AND ACT TO CREATE A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WIND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE TODAY. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES AND STARTS TO KICK THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EWD.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Persistent lower tropospheric high pressure/ridging centered in the eastern U. This will result in a continuation of dry and tranquil conditions, with a few high clouds spilling into the area from the Plains and above average high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.
1139 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AND OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RETROGRADES TONIGHT AND BECOMES PART OF THE RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIES AND EXTENDS FROM BAJA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST FG FORCING JUST CLIPS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND HAVE THUS FOCUSED THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS LOCATION. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA.