Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The convective activity will decrease in intensity after sunset, but could linger well into the evening hours due to an approaching upper level short wave trof. Drier air has worked into northwest Alabama behind a 925mb trof, and this drying trend will continue moving southward overnight.
145 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A cold front will drift southeast and stall near the coast today.
322 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Temperatures continue to warm as the upper ridge over the Four Corners expands east. The upper ridge flattens, but continues to expand east into the Plains early this week. This system transitions into an inverted trough by midweek and continues west.
Any convective elements on Monday appear to be very weakly forced and instability driven with perhaps a lee-trough providing somewhat of a focus over the Southeast Piedmont.
557 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 1020 mb high pressure over central IL early this morning was providing light winds and fair wx over much of area with fairly comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Very warm and humid on Monday with highs around 90F and dewpoints mostly in the lower 70s giving afternoon heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s, highest from Galesburg to Lincoln to Effingham sw. The 00Z forecast models and their ensembles are in good agreement that a subtropical mid/upper level ridge (596 dm 500 mb high) currently over the central and southern Rockies, will flatten out during next few days and extend eastward into the mid MS river valley.
411 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide abundant sunshine today. Little cloud cover is evident on satellite and surface observations, and sunshine will be abundant in the very dry circulation around the high. Temperatures reaching the lower 80s will be about 5 degrees below normal. Conditions will begin to change tonight as high pressure moves east and moisture and forcing increase along a developing frontal boundary.
A surface analysis this afternoon showed the cold front that brought the severe storms yesterday now across northern AL/MS and along the Appalachians. Drier air has slowly filtered into the lower Ohio Valley with light northwest breezes. Dewpoints have mixed out into the lower 60s across southern Indiana though mid to even upper 60s remain across south central Kentucky where visible satellite shows a scattered to broken cumulus field. Temperatures are running a few degrees below normal, mainly in the low to mid 80s.
Another quiet weather day is in store for the region as we remain under the influence of high pressure. For the remainder of the day, dewpoints will stay on the lower side in the low 60s. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
639 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Aviation An area of high pressure over the Central Appalachians will track slowly east through today.
308 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the north today and will stall over northern New England tonight. The front will gradually lift north as a warm front Monday through Monday night.
632 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build across the region through tonight and then shift to the mid Atlantic coast Monday. An area of weak low pressure will move over the western Great Lakes on Monday causing a warm front to develop over the local area.
High pressure has moved very little in the past few days and remains centered just west of the four corners, where it will remain into the coming week. The high pressure ridge will flatten and gradually shift east through the week but no major pattern changes are anticipated as we remain in a favorable monsoon pattern. Storms are expected to develop first along the rim country and White Mountains, and will spread into the lower elevations this evening.
250 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure today. High pressure will bring quiet weather today and tonight. Winds will turn to the south tonight as the high drifts east. The upper trof moves east away from the area loosen its influence on the local weather.
129 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A rare July cold front will push well southeast of our region overnight. Behind the front, expect cooler temperatures and dry weather for tonight and Sunday. Ridging from broad surface anticyclone centered over northern IL building into the region, with frontal boundary well east of the forecast area. Behind the front, advection of cooler temperatures and drier air is anticipated tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 50s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the Piedmont. Noticeably less humid Sunday as a 500 mb longwave trough digs into the mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. Plenty of sunshine is welcomed for Sunday afternoon with high temperatures from the lower 70s in the northwest mountains to the upper 80s in the Piedmont.
This is the result of an approaching mid-level trough, which is currently in the Pacific Ocean that will push onshore later today.
Then it becomes more an elongated ridge from the spine of the Appalachians through AL and MS on Monday. The ridge will weaken more considerably Monday night allowing southerly flow to being to develop and advect moisture northward. Heading into the extended, as a ridge builds across the Southeast, the backside of the trough over New England will become quasi-zonal. At the sfc, high pressure will also expand into the Southeast.
One more relatively cooler day with rain chances before the spigot turns off and the heat turns on. The 00Z ECMWF breaks down the ridge and pushes a back door front into the area quicker than the GFS. The overall trend of retrograding the ridge appears valid, just a question of timing.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis depicts trough axis extending SW from New England into Western NC and Northern GA/AL this morning. Behind the trough axis, dry air aloft is filtering into the area with clear skies dominating this morning. With a drier airmass in place, seasonal daytime highs will feel a bit more refreshing as dewpoints drop into the lower 60s across much of the area. Continued dry air with clear skies overnight will push low temperatures into the lower 60s, and about 5-8 degrees below normal for early July.
330 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are concentrated in the Atlantic waters south/southwest of the Lower Keys currently, moving relatively slowly to the west/northwest. Smaller pockets of weaker activity are in the Gulf waters northwest of the Lower Keys. The mid to upper level low will continue to drop southward toward the western Caribbean, allowing for deepened ridging to nose across the state.
Ridge amplified all the way into Northern Canada begins to get pushed eastward today as low pressure moves into BC. The center of high pressure that has been closer to the Utah/Nevada border the past couple of days will move back to the 4 corners today. Gradients tighten a little in Humboldt County as the trof presses into the ridge creating southwest flow and winds gusting to around 25 mph can be expected there in the afternoon. By Monday the ridge starts to get flattened as the axis gets pushed further eastward.
Even though the boundary should be very weak and a trough by this time, a convergence zone will remain.
342 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A large amplitude ridge with a 4 standard deviation in the 500mb heights will start to move to the east over the area in the next 24 hours. The high pressure currently over MO will shift to the SE creating a pressure gradient of southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico up into southern Minnesota.
619 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build into the area today bringing dry and sunny weather.
658 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide abundant sunshine today. Little cloud cover is evident on satellite and surface observations, and sunshine will be abundant in the very dry circulation around the high. Temperatures reaching the lower 80s will be about 5 degrees below normal. Conditions will begin to change tonight as high pressure moves east and moisture and forcing increase along a developing frontal boundary.
354 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 An area of low pressure currently over northwest North Dakota will track southeast today. A cold front, currently over Montana, will slide southward across the CWA later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front late this afternoon through this evening. Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the mid 80s, to the mid 90s.
335 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 1020 mb high pressure over central IL early this morning was providing light winds and fair wx over much of area with fairly comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Very warm and humid on Monday with highs around 90F and dewpoints mostly in the lower 70s giving afternoon heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s, highest from Galesburg to Lincoln to Effingham sw. The 00Z forecast models and their ensembles are in good agreement that a subtropical mid/upper level ridge (596 dm 500 mb high) currently over the central and southern Rockies, will flatten out during next few days and extend eastward into the mid MS river valley.
348 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A weak cold front will approach today then stall across the area tonight into Monday.
256 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Another quiet weather day is in store for the region as we remain under the influence of high pressure. For the remainder of the day, dewpoints will stay on the lower side in the low 60s. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
334 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 The heat turns on today as an upper ridge of high pressure expands farther east of the Rockies onto the Central Plains. An upper ridge axis expands east onto the plains Sunday and dry weather is forecast.
609 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A weak cold front will approach today then stall across the area tonight into Monday.
A retrograding mid/upper ridge may allow for moderating temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation as we move through the latter portion of the week. Isolated convection is possible across central Kansas overnight, though due to the low probability plan to omit from the terminals and amend if needed.
335 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeast MT, with a cool front extending southwestward to southwest MT and southern ID. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over southeast UT, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. The cold front will then settle slowly south into the area during the afternoon and evening, switching winds to the north and northwest. Isolated thunderstorms could develop in spots late today, with the best chance likely over far south central SD as the trough moves across that area and possibly over the Black Hills. Slightly cooler air will build into the area tonight and Monday, but temps will still remain above average for the upcoming week. Ridge will flatten out over the region as the upper high weakens over the Southern Plains.
At the mid and upper levels, the trough over the eastern U.
136 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A cold front continues moving offshore overnight.
346 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A cold front stalls along the Carolina coast today, then slowly dissipates through mid week as high pressure off the Southeast coast builds back into the region. Latest MSAS shows the frontal boundary has stalled across the eastern half of the fa with the pre-frontal trof and associated convection having pushed south and east of the region. Models show this low level moisture combines with daytime heating to produce sct convection this afternoon. The boundary basically washes out across the region tonight and Monday as the sub-tropical offshore ridge builds back over the area. The low-level flow gradually becomes southerly Monday along with a lee trof developing. 20-30% pops will be limited to sern coastal areas Monday due to sea/bay breezes with any convection from the trof remaining across the mts on NE.
Quiet weather continues across the region today, with high pressure pushing southeast of the area through the day. Temperatures should be around or just a touch above climatological averages, with highs in the low 90s with abundant sunshine. Southerly flow will prevail at the surface through the coming workweek, as ridging builds aloft. This will help push temperatures into the low to mid 90s through the week, with plenty of humidity. Afternoon heat indices will range from the mid 90s to low 100s each day, with the higher values north of I-44.
248 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 WV imagery was showing a large upper level high pressure dome encompassing the western half of the CONUS along with a broad downstream trof situated over the eastern CONUS. broad high pressure was in control over the Plains.
Highs will warm a couple deg warmer than today. with warmer conditions expected.
Southern precipice of the mean long-wave upper level trof will retreat slightly northward on Monday with lingering weak but stationary front over central Georgia.
655 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure today. High pressure will bring quiet weather today and tonight. Winds will turn to the south tonight as the high drifts east. The upper trof moves east away from the area loosen its influence on the local weather.
329 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build across the region through tonight and then shift to the mid Atlantic coast Monday. An area of weak low pressure will move over the western Great Lakes on Monday causing a warm front to develop over the local area.
348 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build into the region today. The high will move offshore during the early part of the week, while a cold front slowly sags southward during the middle of the week. The latest (07z) surface analysis indicates that high pressure is located over the midwest early this morning. The cold frontal zone can been seen on derived satellite imagery off the Delmarva extending southwestward to the Carolinas. There is not much going on weather-wise today, as high pressure builds over the forecast area. There has been good run-to-run consistency that high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s.
616 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A cold front stalls along the Carolina coast today, then slowly dissipates through mid week as high pressure off the Southeast coast builds back into the region. Models show this low level moisture combines with daytime heating to produce sct convection after 18Z. The boundary basically washes out across the region tonight and Monday as the sub-tropical offshore ridge builds back over the area. The low-level flow gradually becomes southerly Monday along with a lee trof developing. 20-30% pops will be limited to sern coastal areas Monday due to sea/bay breezes with any convection from the trof remaining across the mts on NE.
The cooler morning temperatures plus lowering heights aloft (a mark of overall atmospheric cooling aloft) will prevent afternoon high temperatures from approaching the record values of the past two days. However, the chance for severe thunderstorms appears to be delayed until Monday when the slow moving cold front finally reaches Idaho and Montana. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent upon the timing of this cold front and thus have hedged towards cooler over central Idaho with somewhat warmer conditions over SW and West Central Montana where the front will likely not pass until late in the afternoon.
614 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Cold front which moved into the area last evening will remain across the this morning and stall across the southern Midlands this afternoon. Satellite imagery currently shows cloudiness over the eastern Midlands with surface obs showing the weak cold front stretched across the central Midlands and CSRA. The weak cold front will move very slowly southward through early afternoon then stall across the southern Midlands and CSRA.
The upper ridge that's brought record heat to the area will gradually flatten in response to energy moving in from the Pacific. Temperatures are a couple of degrees cooler today, with a more noticeable downward trend on Monday.
323 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Early this morning an upper level high was located over the southern Rockies while an upper trough was over new England with northwest flow across the Plains. For today and tonight the upper high will build out into the into Nebraska and Kansas as an upper trough moves on shore from the eastern Pacific. A thermal ridge will spread out into the Central Plains today and tonight. Highs across the rest of the area will range from the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be warm with readings in the low to mid 70s.
322 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Noticeable shift in the upper level pattern this morning as the strong ridge has been dislodged a bit, shifting southwest as we start to see the influence of northern stream energy. That pocket of drier air will be driving southeast today with moisture profiles improving today, resulting in a few more storms this afternoon and evening, with a few nocturnal cells expected as we see lingering outflow boundaries in the area and very warm sfc temps, especially in the lower valleys. The ridge continues to flatten out on Monday with moisture "plume" shifting overhead (or from southwest to northeast).
This afternoon temps were able to warm into the lower to middle 70s away from Lake Superior, but areas immediately downstream of the lake have temps in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Temps tonight will radiate into the lower to middle 50s. For Sun with thicker cloud cover/precip, temps will struggle to warm beyond the lower 70s/mid 70s.
high pressure continues to spin over Utah early this morning. high pressure will begin to shift eastward through this afternoon. high pressure will move into Colorado tonight. Mozley On Mon the upper level ridge is forecast to be centered over the Four Corners region. Temps on Mon will be quite warm, with 90s and lower 100's acrs the southeast plains and 80s in the high valleys. A flat upper ridge will be over the area Tue and Wed. Temps on Tue will still be warm, but generally a few degrees cooler than on Mon. The upper ridge builds back over the western U. There is expected to be enough mstr under the ridge over the area each day, for good pcpn chances over the mtns and high valleys, and isold to scattered pcpn acrs the southeast plains.
125 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 With any lingering showers ending in the evening, weak high pressure will yield a pleasant second half of the weekend. Dry weather continues for most of Monday, yet with warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, a late day shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
437 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds east through Monday, passing to the south of the region.
227 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build into the area today bringing dry and sunny weather.
Also, lowered overnight lows as svrl ob sites showed rain cooled air in the lower to mid 70s remaining steady thru sunset.
214 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Quiet weather continues across the region today, with high pressure pushing southeast of the area through the day. Temperatures should be around or just a touch above climatological averages, with highs in the low 90s with abundant sunshine. Southerly flow will prevail at the surface through the coming workweek, as ridging builds aloft. This will help push temperatures into the low to mid 90s through the week, with plenty of humidity. Afternoon heat indices will range from the mid 90s to low 100s each day, with the higher values north of I-44.
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 At 3 AM, sfc analysis showed a muddled sfc pressure field and a weak pressure gradient with high pressure over the western Gulf. at 850 MB, weak high pressure was noted over SE TX similar to yesterday but 850 mb temps were just a bit cooler.
409 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 An upper level high will extend fm the Great Basin into Colorado with weak flow aloft. However still expect sct aftn high based storms over the higher terrain. First off, however, Monday looks like it will be another scorcher as the present upper level ridge covers Colorado with very warm temperatures.
538 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the north today and will stall over northern New England tonight. The front will gradually lift north as a warm front Monday through Monday night.
This is due to the upper ridge shifting over the Panhandles. As the edges of the ridge near the western Panhandles around midweek we could see mountain convection make a run for the far northwestern corner of the area. With the ridge positioned over the Panhandles we will see the return of triple digit heat for some part of the area each day.
As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 70s across most locations.
Little change to the weather pattern in the short term with a broad upper level trough in the mid/lower MS Valley, and a weak frontal boundary draped across portions of the Midwest. Wednesday: Similar weather pattern with broad upper level trough in the mid MS Valley. This should push heat index values into the lower 90s at some locations.
H5/H7 ridging continues to build over the Rockies with NW flow aloft. high pressure is set to the east with a lee-side trough developing over the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The trough will eventually shift slowly eastward during the afternoon and evening hrs. Based on movement/timing of the trough.
Precip chances will be a little more limited today as a building upper level ridge of high pressure across the Intermountain West begins to expand slowly eastward into the Western High Plains. However, regardless of a weak flow aloft, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into this evening as H5 vort maxima drop southeast across the Western High Plains ahead of the building ridge out west.
Large area of strong high pressure accompanied by dry air thru the entire column remain locked over the Great Lakes region early this morning. Temps will be a few degrees warmer today as the airmass overhead modifies. Enjoy your 4th of July! High pressure moves off to our east allowing for a progressively more moist flow.
Satellite is also showing an upper low over central Oklahoma early this morning with an active line of thunderstorms ahead of it over eastern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. This convection is being generated in a zone of strong moisture convergence ahead of the upper low. The slight chance of thunderstorms will spread across much of the area by this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable with little CINH ahead of the upper low. The chance for thunderstorms will increase across central, east central, and southeast Missouri this evening as both the GFS/NAM show the upper low moving into the southern Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast overnight as the upper low slowly moves northeast.
This reflected trough will be enough to support sct shra/ts activity across NW through SW SD, esp the BH where CIN is negligible. Timing of the trough at peak heating with temps expected to exceed convective temps supports at least a low pop mention from the BH to NW SD where weakest CIN will be in place. The region will remain on the edge of fast flow and the western CONUS ridge through the remainder of the period. Numerous weak impulses emanating from the NE PAC upper trough will support near daily chances for impulses into the Northern Plains with timing, strength, and track of these features near impossible to determine at this point.
Analysis shows a large area of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic stretching across central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to the district for the next several days.
Upper ridging over MB shifts into wrn Ontario today as main wave moves across srn Canada. Will see some cooler temps Thu aftn as lows drop into the lower 80s after the hot mid- week period.