Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CURRENTLY, THE COLD FRONT LIES JUST WEST OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, AND STRONG WINDS ARE STILL ONGOING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THAT AREA. COLD FRONT MOVED INLAND YET SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SYSTEMS PROGRESSES NORTH.
High temperatures today are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as an upper trough progresses eastward across the western conus. This upper trough will move over will beginning moving over the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday.
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS. MAINLY A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
SO FAR NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT RADAR IMAGERY OVER LAST HOUR OR SO SUGGESTS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGES MAY BE RECEIVING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BROAD MOISTURE FIELD ON LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROF ALONG THE PACNW COAST IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA, CREATING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT.
/ISSUED 243 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015/ LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH SOME CIRRUS FILLING IN BEHIND THE RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW RECENT TRENDS FOR TEMPS AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ON SCHEDULE TO PUSH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS THE NAM AND ECMWF FALL IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON FROPA TIMING.
LESS SNOW COVER AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS. MODELS SIMILAR IN POSITIONING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITH A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. AND ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A DECENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEE TROUGHING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECTING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO OUR WEST WHICH SHOULD SHARPEN UP AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
246 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2015 A QUITE NIGHT WITH TEMPS AT 230 AM IN THE LOW/MID 30S UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IN THE LOW/MID 50S. TONIGHT EXPECT CLR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. THE QUITE/DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SUNNY DAYS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER THE PAC NW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THE WINDS VEER EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRI WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
EXPECT REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AROUND KENW AND KBUU TO THIN BY 12Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GET MIXED INTO THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS WI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
242 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE STATE OF KENTUCKY AS OF 7Z. EXPECT QUIET AND CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT AND SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL DROPS. WITH UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 EXPECTED ON THE RIDGES FOR LOWS. THE ONE CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THOSE FAVORED COLDER SPOTS LIKE FT PAYNE AND RUSSELLVILLE.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GETTING CLOSER, WE STILL MAY GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO GREAT. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CORRIGAN TO JUST NORTH OF CONROE TO COLUMBUS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AS AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 60S BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAVE MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WAS OVER MOST OF OUR AREA WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES BUT THIS CHANCE WILL END BY EVENING AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL HELP THE COOLER DRIER AIR PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
243 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
153 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 AVIATION SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY.
341 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015 (Tonight and Friday) The cooler/drier airmass accompanying yesterday's cold front has resulted in lull in precipitation across West Central TX. Temperatures are running around 20 degrees below climo, with readings generally in the lower 60s. These cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints have resulted in limited instability, minimizing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. The resultant isentropic upglide will maintain the low cloud deck, possibly producing patchy drizzle and/or light rain.
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TONIGHT.
350 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
317 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS FAILED TO ALLOW FOR A PROMPT EROSION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WEST OF THE RIDGES. AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD START TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW COULD SPREAD TO THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.
223 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015 CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 317 AM CDT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING TODAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPS. SO EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPS TO SPREAD RIGHT UP TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A MODEST BOOST FROM THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BEHIND.
550 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
317 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 WX MAP SHOWS COMBINATION COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED ACROSS C LA AND INLAND SE TX WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) High pressure centered over the Great Plains will continue moving east-southeast tonight. With the high settling down over the eastern Ozarks tonight wind should become light and variable setting up excellent radiational cooling conditions. Chilliest readings will likely be over the eastern Ozarks closest to the center of the high where lower 40s temps should be widespread.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. AWAY FROM THE SEABREEZE, AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND IN THE LOWER 90S.
235 PM MST THU MAY 21 2015 A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT BENIGN FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EVENING. UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF IT IN THE SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. I LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE WEST. LOOK FOR TEMPS EQUAL TO OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAYS ON FRIDAY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
156 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY.
ONLY REASONS THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN IS THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
342 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S. THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
FXUS66 KLOX DDHHMM AFDLOX 135 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015 COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. STILL WATCHING AND WAITING FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
BRUSDA /ISSUED 450 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US IS EJECTED UP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.
1237 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015 Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high pressure building in from the northwest.
402 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850 MB TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND AREAS AGAIN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
146 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB).
MAYBE HAVE ALREADY REACHED OUR HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY BUT MAY GET AN HOUR OR TWO HEATING OUT WEST TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S.
159 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION FIRING AS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY BEFORE EJECTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. EMERGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND AS MORE ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE EAST TO WEST BASED ON THE LOW'S POSITION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS DUE TO BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FAVORING MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AN ELONGATED AND MODEST RIDGE AXIS REACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUNSHINE STATE IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS PA. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB+/ WILL BUILD UNDER A DEVELOPING LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AHEAD OF RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING QUITE CHILLY TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING.
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015 LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST FROM JUST BEHIND TO IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY REACHING THE NORTHEAST U.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND CONFLUENT FLOW. IT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BUT A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
652 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN OHIO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STAYED NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS EXCEPT IN CENTRAL OHIO WHERE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS.
347 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
241 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
615 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
309 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS FAILED TO ALLOW FOR A PROMPT EROSION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WEST OF THE RIDGES. AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD START TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. FRIES CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE SOUTH FRIDAY. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND EXITS THE RIDGES BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S NORTH AND RIDGES WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED.
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACRS THE REGION.
LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOWEVER SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH. BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into northwest Washington.
1258 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BUT WITH STRONGER JET ACTIVITY CARVING OUT A TROUGH FARTHER UPSTREAM. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF VALUES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.
418 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN OHIO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STAYED NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS EXCEPT IN CENTRAL OHIO WHERE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE.
This convection is slow moving, so stronger storms that develop could produce some brief local heavy rain and gusty winds, mainly over the higher terrain.
FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS PA. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RIDGING AND RESULTANT CLEARING IN CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN FROM THE DAY AND THEREFORE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S LATE TONIGHT. THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR MASS MODIFIES AND MIN TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL.
A WEAK UPPER TROF OVERHEAD SUPPORTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO SQUEEZE OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
941 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP AN EAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
Surface ridging and mostly zonal flow aloft will yield a dry and seasonable afternoon. Expect highs to reach the low 70s under mostly clear skies.
1012 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.