Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. AND AS A RESULT IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH PERSISTS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
250 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
357 PM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area through the week.
405 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE JAMES VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
148 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST TODAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS HAS BEEN REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RESIDUAL WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY.
206 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH CAA WRAPPING AROUND LOW HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER ACROSS AREA FOR END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DRIVES EAST ACROSS CANADA.
153 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS A FLATTENING H500 RIDGE CROSSES. SQUEEZE PLAY SETUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A couple of troughs will near the forecast area through the short term period. The next trough will begin to drop down from the north tomorrow evening into the overnight hours.
128 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SOME BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
303 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE FORCING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL CAPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND SHEARING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY AND MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS NORTH AS THEY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. BEST CHANCES BEFORE NOON WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO BEGIN BY LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
116 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOWS AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE 12 NAM WAS VERIFYING TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS BASED ON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE WARMER GFS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI WITH AN UPR RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN GRTLKS IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX WITH WARMER TEMPS IN OUR AREA.
149 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
1214 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED BETWEEN ABILENE AND LUBBOCK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DEEPER AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
1123 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH RIDGE OVER CA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH SOME 50S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. NORTHERN STREAM TROF IS NEARLY OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM HAS FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL POSE ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN MONTANA BRINGING IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR TO OUR REGION. SURFACE TROF AHEAD OF THAT TROF IS DEEPENING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO MONTANA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIME OF THE TROF THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION AN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
Should see a decrease in the high clouds tonight with light winds.
LOWERED LOWS TO BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. MIXY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE VALUES.
247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015 Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH.
331 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 OUR CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO NUDGE E THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SW AR BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW CENTER. DROPPING POPS AFTER 06Z OVER ALL BUT THE ERN ZONES AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY/OPEN UP AS IT CROSSES THE MS RIVER OUT OF THE REGION. BUT SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S AREAWIDE. AMPLIFIED RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES N AND E ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA. WITH DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING E OF THE MS RIVER.
259 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER CIRCULATION DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM ND AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH HIGH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE NW TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COOL BIAS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE FL/GA BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WEST OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS. THEN MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER SE GA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER CONDITIONS AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW INTO WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH.
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/ Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
536 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 CORRECTED SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER CIRCULATION DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM ND TO NM WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GULF COAST S OF LA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE NW TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015 Positively tilted upper-level ridging across the Rockies and northern Plains will continue to push a slow moving upper closed low into the Lwr Mississippi Valley through the overnight period tonight. a weak cold front is expected to push through the region overnight coincident with a thin mid-level cloud deck. Upstream ridging should quickly push the moisture to the southeast later in the day on Wednesday.
300 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S READINGS, SO A BIT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH WOODS. WINDS WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS TO EASE WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING AWAY EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNFORTUNATELY, CLOUDS WILL LINGER BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AREAWIDE. SOME SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OUR OLD UPPER LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
/ISSUED 356 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEEMS LIKE THE LOW CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. CLOSEST TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BUT STILL SOME RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERING IN THE EAST.
Cooler and Breezy Wednesday. A cold front will shift across Orofino and Grangeville areas late tonight and then slowly move across western Montana Wednesday. The cold front is expected to intensify as it shifts across southwest Montana and Lemhi County Wednesday afternoon and evening.
UPPER LOW IS STILL OVER NORTH TEXAS AND EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE LOW GETS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 5H SHOWED A LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO THE MINNESOTA AND 3H REVEALED A JET MAX OF 130 KNOTS BIG BEND TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND TWO AREAS OF DARKENING OR DISTURBANCES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO NORTH LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SINK SOUTH AND PUSH THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY 06Z TONIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.
AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES OVER RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS TRANSLATE THIS LOW ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY-TONIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS PROVIDING OUR SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND TODAY. AN OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING WARMING TREND AS HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORCAL AT THIS TIME.
213 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 H5 PATTERN TONIGHT HAS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SWD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NWRN NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN. 00Z DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE MID-WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MANKATO MINNESOTA TO DUBUQUE IOWA. THE DEW POINTS ARE SLOWING THE NORTHEAST PROGRESS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN IOWA NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE 700 AND 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS ALSO DEPICTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AM. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL AIMRASS IS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER TROF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LIGHT BANDED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR ABSAROKEE TO RED LODGE AND BRIDGER WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE BECOMES DOMINANT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTER KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT COOLER TOMORROW. TRENDED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 01-02 UTC. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS). WITH THE LOW REMAINING NEARBY AND REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLE JET STREAK.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TOMORROW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER IN SE OREGON AND A TOUCH COOLER IN SW IDAHO. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS NOT COOLED TEMPS BUT NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED. DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST AND WASHOUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH ALABAMA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME W-SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX ON SUN AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL COME EASTWARD QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ALONG THIS TROUGH.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY.
THIS FEATURE WAS TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A VORT MAX ROUNDED THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THERE IS SOME DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE UPPER IMPULSE WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS CAPPING FEATURE THAT WAS THERE FROM YESTERDAYS ANALYSIS SO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND POTENTIALLY LOWER THE DESTABILIZATION AS A ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER SUNDAY EVENING.
A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS WEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES SWING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST SEEING THE GREATEST DROP. THE LOW THEN VEERS TO THE WEST AND MEANDERS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR THY DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. LEANED TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE AND THUS THE DRIER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAYS PRECIP CHANCES.
A cold front will move into north central Kansas by early Sunday morning with the from moving southeast across the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas by early afternoon Sunday. With the upper trough still to move through and steep lapse rates expect an area of showers post frontal for a few hours. Highs Sunday will range from the lower to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) A vigorous upper LOW was over eastern CO this afternoon as a weak upper RIDGE was moving off to our east. Min temps should be in the range of persistence or a bit warmer, dropping to around 60 degrees, which is on the high-end of MOS.
SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY STARTS TO WEAKEN.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND IN ITS WAKE.
A TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM S-SE TO SW AT 15Z SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
RIDGE IS SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MAIN LOW IS SITUATED IN WESTERN KS WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NW. VERY WEAK RIDGING OBSERVED IN BETWEEN. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST SD INTO NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW OVER CO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AND ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. A COOL AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW ONGOING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING WILL STAY ANCHORED ALONG THE RIDGES IN THE SALMON AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS.
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL OPEN UP AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.