Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Issued 950 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016) Current water vapor satellite imagery confirms that the local CWFA is located beneath northerly flow aloft to the east of a large mid- level ridge over the lower Mississippi valley. Short term NWP guidance in agreement that the ridge will remain centered across the Arklamiss region for the remainder of the night, and with no evidence of lift or advection of moist air into the region we will maintain a dry forecast.
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Dry and breezy southwest flow will continue across the forecast area today as a trough of low pressure remains over the eastern Great Basin. The trough which has persisted to the west over the past several days will finally sweep eastward over the area Wednesday resulting in a westerly flow. Flow aloft weakens following trough passage so expect less wind Wednesday afternoon. Expect afternoon temperatures to peak near those recorded on Labor Day, then becoming a bit cooler Wednesday in the wake of the upper level trough described previously.
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will keep our weather dry and warm through Wednesday.
ridge will be centered over the ArkLaMiss today and tomorrow, which should generally limit coverage of showers and thunderstorms. By tomorrow afternoon the lower level moisture looks to be pushed farther west over Louisiana, so POPs were limited to far western parts of the forecast area. Subsidence from the upper ridge and drier surface air should limit convection elsewhere.
One complicating factor to this general pattern is a subtle relative vort max riding along the edge of the greatest ridging, traversing across our area Wednesday as the max midlevel heights also drift west of our area. There's not much to this disturbance, but looks to dent the ridging enough to allow for chance PoPs.
High temperatures will range from the low 70s across the Iron Range to the upper 70s for much of northern Wisconsin. The main axis of instability will be found south of the Highway 2 corridor today, gradually sliding to the south overnight. As the front slowly pushes to the south overnight, cooler and drier air will gradually work into the borderland. Low temperatures will range from around 50 along the International Border, to the low 60s across the Hayward Lakes area. On the synoptic scale a mid-level trough axis will be over the northern high plains moving east towards the upper Midwest Wednesday. As the mid-level trough approaches from the west so will a cold front, with showers and storms expected along and ahead of both fronts Wednesday night.
An upper high was centered over the srn MS river valley while the remnants of Hermine was still off the nern coastline. For today expect the continuation of hot temps, in the low to mid 90s, along with dry conditions.
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Warm and dry weather will continue across eastern Kentucky through the end of the day on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region. Temperatures in the short term will average in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs, and in the low to mid 60s for lows. The models remain in good agreement with breaking down the upper level ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley as short wave energy moves from the Continental Divide to the northern Plains and eventually the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by the weekend.
352 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region into tonight.
Aside from the fact that the dry air will keep rain chances out of the picture, afternoon mixing will result in dewpoints in the low to mid 60s overnight. Highs will be near average (in the low 90s) the next several days.
with a trof over the Wrn USA and a subtropical high over the lwr MS Valley. Models remain consistent with the past couple days that the Wrn trof will begin deamplifying. but the base of the Wrn trof is fcst to lift across CO/WY into SD tonight. But shear is fcst to decrease thru the evening to below 30 kts as the low-lvl jet strengthens.
Warm and dry weather through the week as strong ridging over the eastern Pacific results in northwesterly flow aloft over NorCal and a return to above average temperatures. There will be periods of breezy north to east winds at times over the northern half of the Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain, especially tonight and early Wednesday as a cold front washes out over far northern California.
240 AM PDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Higher pressure aloft will bring warmer weather and less extensive coastal clouds for the rest of the week.
Upper level analysis places trough through the northern Rockies into the Great Basin with various short waves lifting ahead of it. Chances for showers/thunderstorms start to increase late Tuesday night as the main trough axis shifts towards the area. Unsettled weather remains through the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend as a parade of disturbances continue to move through the area, bringing near daily chances for precipitation along with cooler than average temperatures to most locations.
Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected today through Wed as strong upper level ridging continues to influence our weather. Temperatures both today and Wed will soar into the lower 90s.
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the New England States to the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
213 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates.
614 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
Tonight, the 80kt jet associated with the Great Basin trough will shift from NE Utah into NW Colorado.
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week, providing mainly dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures through Wednesday. These storms will develop on the apex of the deep ridge that is in place and extends from the southern Ohio Valley into the Gulf. As moisture gradually increases over the region, some storms may push through the cap of the established ridge. Overnight low temperatures will no longer drop into the lower 60s for the Scioto valley. Minimums will have a more uniform range from around 70 to upper 60s tonight, lower 70s to around 70 Tuesday night with the higher readings found in the northwest.
301 AM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward today and will cross the forecast area on Wednesday.
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Hot an humid airmass en route early this morning per temperatures in the low to mid 70s across a wide swath of Lower Michigan and dewpoints creeping into the mid to upper 60s at forecast issuance time. Ongoing SW flow in advance of the advancing trough will support another humid day with heat indices in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. Greatest coverage would be closer to the low/dynamic forcing, but forcing within the increasingly moist environment warrants at least a blanket chc pop everywhere. Passage of the trough Wed night/Thurs shunt the warm/moist axis to the south allowing for a gradual return to more typical temps/dewpoints for late week. Moderate pressure gradient will be in place between Atlantic coast high pressure and the next cold front entering the northern Great Lakes and Midwest today.
This storm is currently moving north-northwest but will turn to the north and north-northeast ahead of an upper trough digging into the western United States.
By the end of the week another upper trough will approach and move through the area with more unsettled weather. S/wv trof moving thru the Ern Great Lakes is forcing an area of rnfl thru NY state at this hour. More like is that CAA behind the trof and fresh pool of cool. Some clouds may spill into southern sections late tonight as a short wave rotates through the base of the trough. The nearby presence of the upper level low will allow for a continuation of chilly and windy conditions Monday night. The upper trough initially over the northeast CONUS will gradually lift out into the maritimes for the second half of the work week.
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 The cold front progression has reached near a line from Springfield to Champaign. Overnight low temps look to settle out in the low to mid 40s, based on nearby upstream temps/dewpoints. Little to no cloud cover will continue through tomorrow, under advancing high pressure. Cold front currently crossing the Mississippi River into west- central Illinois will swing through the area late this afternoon into the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 40s. while highs on Monday reach the lower to middle 60s. Canadian high pressure area will sit across the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday with dry and cooler weather. Out in the western plains a system will be developing and have a warm front that will extend toward the area.
859 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses during the early morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and possibly an isolated shower. High pressure mid week. Still anticipating a weak cold front to cross during the overnight and early morning hours as low pressure ejects from the Great Lakes eastward toward the Atlantic. Continued mixing in the absence of BL decoupling will keep min temps warmer than last night for most locations.
However, moisture in the lower levels will continue to produce sct/bkn conditions, but any CIGs that do develop will mostly be abv 3KFT with the exception of VCT. Mid level s/w trough axis from this morning has exited to the NE while an additional s/w vort max is approaching from the west. which will also in turn aid in keeping min temps slightly warmer than what was experienced this morning. resulting in max temps a degree or two warmer than today if enough sunshine can occur. with the clearer skies resulting in slightly cooler min temps.
A weak cold front is expected to shift winds around to a more northerly direction around sunrise Monday morning but remain under 10 kts. Short wave ridging will move overhead tomorrow but thickness values will be decreasing. Therefore, temperatures will be lower than observed today as a stalled out cold front retreats northward tomorrow.
Cooler air will move over the region, resulting in daytime highs of 50 to 55 for both Monday and Tuesday.
Varying amounts of high cloudiness will continue to stream over the CWA through Monday ahead of a large upper trough/low off the west coast.
/issued 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ Tonight through Monday afternoon, Ridging aloft continues to build across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, while high pressure at the surface slides east of the forecast area. As far as temperatures are concerned, moisture subtly increasing during the period will result in slightly warmer conditions compared to the previous couple of days. With some high clouds again streaming east overhead, lows tonight will be a little warmer as they'll range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Then for Monday afternoon, highs will top out in the lower 80s areawide.
A ridge of high pressure remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States. Meanwhile, a weak cold front extends from central Illinois back through west central Missouri. Short term models still indicate a weak cold front will drop into the area towards Monday morning. High pressure at the surface and aloft covers the deep south. A weak cold front will move through Monday morning. Temps will remain above normal across most of the Mid-South, though readings will be a couple of degrees cooler than today across the northern counties. High pressure will push east by Tuesday night and overnight lows will be a bit milder.
Ridging prevails aloft over the Plains and will continue to do so thru Tuesday.
737 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure will remain across the area today before a dry cold front crosses through on Monday. Strong high pressure will quickly build back in from the north through the middle of the week.
1116 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 A weak cold front is situated just north of KLBB and should make it into the terminal by the time this TAF run becomes valid. Short wave ridging will move overhead tomorrow but thickness values will be decreasing. Therefore, temperatures will be lower than observed today as a stalled out cold front retreats northward tomorrow.
A high pressure ridge will be moving east of the zones tonight and flow aloft will switch to the southwest. High pressure is currently over Central and Southwest Montana and the air mass will remain dry through the night. Moist southwest flow ahead of a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will bring moisture into the extreme southern portions of Southwest Montana Monday afternoon resulting in a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm near or south of KEKS and KBZN. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will dominate through Tuesday. A couple of weak disturbances will move through the ridge during this time. As snow levels drop to around 7000 feet Tuesday, some light snow may fall over the higher elevations.
529 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A broad ridge just east of the forecast area will continue sliding east as a large trough spins off the Pacific Northwest coast. This flow and the trough will draw subtropical moisture north through Arizona and into Utah and by late Monday afternoon this moisture will spread into eastern Utah. Overnight the next big ridge begins to build west of the forecast area.
The biggest change is that the low level wind field below 850mb has veered from an east wind this morning to a south wind this evening. This is indicative of surface based ridging shifting to the east of the area.
By the end of the week another upper trough will approach and move through the area with more unsettled weather. Across the Ern Great Lakes a s/wv trof is quickly moving thru the Wly flow. The trof passage will reinvigorate upslope clouds over Nrn parts of the forecast area though. Some clouds may spill into southern sections late tonight as a short wave rotates through the base of the trough. The nearby presence of the upper level low will allow for a continuation of chilly and windy conditions Monday night. The upper trough initially over the northeast CONUS will gradually lift out into the maritimes for the second half of the work week.
Temperatures have warmed up nicely this afternoon, with current temperatures 35-40 degrees warmer than morning lows in most locations. Will continue to use the coldest guidance numbers given the ongoing drought, with most locations in the lower 40s and a couple upper 30s possible. The warming trend will continue tomorrow with most areas reaching the low 80s. A weak cold front currently moving through the Midwest will move into the area late Monday but will be dry and in the process of dissipating.
949 PM PDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Cooler with periods of wet weather as a couple of systems will bring chances of rain and high elevation snow this week. A trough of low pressure remains off the west coast and will continue to spread some high clouds over the area. Snow levels will be high so any new snow will mostly be over the peaks and maybe some of the higher seasonal mountain roads. Locally windy conditions are still possible over the far north end of the valley and over the ridgetops.
1044 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A weak cold front is moving through the area currently. The only effect of this will have is a wind switch to the north and a bit cooler temperatures tomorrow. The high pressure associated with this frontal passage will remain north of the area Monday and eventually move into the Great Lakes area Tuesday.
654 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Cold front currently crossing the Mississippi River into west- central Illinois will swing through the area late this afternoon into the evening. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 40s. while highs on Monday reach the lower to middle 60s. Canadian high pressure area will sit across the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday with dry and cooler weather. Out in the western plains a system will be developing and have a warm front that will extend toward the area.
/00Z TAF/ Water vapor satellite imagery showing a short wave trough moving into Texas from Mexico. Moisture is returning from the Gulf in the low levels but not enough to support low ceilings. /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ Another dry and pleasant afternoon is underway for Southeast Texas, with 2 PM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 70s near the Piney Woods to the low 80s along the Upper Texas Coast. Otherwise, cloud cover and a gradual increase in low level moisture resulting in overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s (almost 10 degrees warmer than what was observed this morning).
The Nam/NMM/WRF highs are about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the GFS and EC output and have leaned towards the cooler high temperatures, but not completely in that direction since confidence is not as high as it could be. Some of the higher resolution models,such as the nmm, namnest and namdng show an area of very light rain.
/issued 219 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ High pressure ridge over northern gulf will dominate wx pattern next few days, with above normal temps in the daytime. Cirrus will affect overnight lows which will be svrl degrees warmer than those of last night. Upper ridge to remain established into next wknd with continued dry and fairly persistent temps thru that time frame.
High pressure will continue to dominate weather across the TAF sites through the next 24 hours.
607 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A weak cold front is moving through the area currently. The only effect of this will have is a wind switch to the north and a bit cooler temperatures tomorrow. The high pressure associated with this frontal passage will remain north of the area Monday and eventually move into the Great Lakes area Tuesday.
619 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis showed mid-level ridging along the spine of the U. This upper-air disturbance is associated with a cold front which moved through our area earlier this morning with 18z surface observations indicating modest cold advection occuring in the wake of the frontal passage. Further amplification of the aforementioned mid-level ridge is forecast Monday into Monday night, before heights begin to lower in response to the progression of an impulse from the central Rockies into mid Missouri Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure will dominate through Tuesday. A couple of weak disturbances will move through the ridge during this time. As snow levels drop to around 7000 feet Tuesday, some light snow may fall over the higher elevations.
High pressure northeast of our area will slide to the east with weak lee troughing forming tomorrow. With the warm air advection and downslope, Tuesday highs will be warmer - 80s. The highest pops are still forecast in the eastern zones.
Deep layer swly flow is over the ern Great Basin this eve downstream from a deep trof in the ern Pac with moisture beginning to spread into the CWA from the southwest. The offshore trof deepens Tue night with the downstream ridge amplifying over the Great Basin for Wed and Thu returning the area to a warm dry pattern.
Monday will be dry with highs in the 50s and approaching the low 60s. Otherwise forecast will become tranquil as cold front pushes through the area, trimming about 10 degrees off of today highs for expected afternoon temps on Monday.
1006 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure will remain across the area today before a dry cold front crosses through on Monday. Strong high pressure will quickly build back in from the north through the middle of the week.
After a colder than expected start to the day, especially in the southeast part of the forecast area, sunshine and a southwest breeze helped warm temperatures back into the lower 70s across the area today. With little moisture and virtually no clouds associated with the cold front, only a temperature drop of around 5 degrees is expected for daytime highs on Monday - into the mid 60s to around 70. Right now it looks like most thermometer readings by Tuesday morning will be in the lower 40s, with upper 30s again not out of the picture for the usual rural cold spots.
839 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Another quiet night tonight with ridging setup over the Mountain West. Expecting similar conditions to last night with temps a tad warmer as clouds begin to move in from the southwest overnight. An upper ridge over the southern and central Rockies was slowly building northward. Will keep low PoPs over the higher terrain with the influx of weak energy. A stronger wave breaks off of an upper low off the Pacific northwest and runs across western and northern Montana on its way into southern Canada.
757 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 High pressure ridge will extend East across the forecast area Tonight providing clear skies. Lows will generally be in the 40 to 45 degree range inland, with warmer readings South and along the coast.
High pressure will continue to dominate area weather tonight. Temperatures have moderated slightly and lows tonight should be a bit warmer and the potential for frost limited. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 74 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0.
826 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 High pressure over the Southeast will weaken tonight and Monday in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. High pressure will then build in from the north through midweek. West-northwesterly low-level flow will continue for the first half of Monday ahead of a dry cold front dropping south through the Mid- Atlantic States. Mixing to around 850mb through mid-afternoon should result in highs approaching 80 in the south ahead of the front, a little cooler in the low/mid 70s across the north where 850mb temps will begin to fall after 18Z. Weak cold advection and northerly flow will push lows back down into the low 40s on Monday night.
1207 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses during the early morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and possibly an isolated shower. High pressure mid week. Still anticipating a weak cold front to cross during the overnight and early morning hours as low pressure ejects from the Great Lakes eastward toward the Atlantic. Continued mixing in the absence of BL decoupling will keep min temps warmer than last night for most locations.
1025 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis showed mid-level ridging along the spine of the U. This upper-air disturbance is associated with a cold front which moved through our area earlier this morning with 18z surface observations indicating modest cold advection occuring in the wake of the frontal passage. Further amplification of the aforementioned mid-level ridge is forecast Monday into Monday night, before heights begin to lower in response to the progression of an impulse from the central Rockies into mid Missouri Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60S. This evenings sounding shows winds to 3 KFT slightly less than this morning and are expected to pick up slightly from the cooler airmass outflow from the mainland. On this date in Keys weather history, in 1881, the high temperature in Key West reached 91 degrees.
814 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A crossing cold front will generate some showers tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 80. Cooler weather can be expected for the week. A cold front is progged to quickly advance out of the Midwest, crossing the region overnight. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Cold advection in northwest flow, and proximity to an upper trough across the NE CONUS, should keep stratocu across the region Monday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft covers the deep south. A weak cold front will move through Monday morning. Temps will remain above normal across most of the Mid-South, though readings will be a couple of degrees cooler than today across the northern counties. High pressure will push east by Tuesday night and overnight lows will be a bit milder.