Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 327 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ The leading edge of the northerly winds and cooler air has come in a bit ahead of schedule, visiting all but the southern Rolling Plains as of 1940Z. Otherwise, we may see additional scattered elevated showers and storms attempt to develop over the cooler airmass tonight, though coverage will likely be less than what was anticipated earlier. Lastly, storms originating over the higher terrain of New Mexico this afternoon will propagate east- southeastward and will have a good chance of affecting spots out near the TX/NM line.
A warm front has lifted north across the area with surface dewpoints now in the mid 60s to low 70s at most locations. Precipitation has been a bit slower to move into NE TN and SW VA and pushed back the higher PoPs until after 06z for these locations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 81 71 83 / 70 80 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 79 68 81 / 90 80 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 79 69 81 / 90 80 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 76 66 78 / 90 80 60 30.
1220 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure will build into the region through Monday.
507 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with weak cyclonic flow across the northern Plains. At the surface, weak high pressure was located across the area, with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
East west oriented upper trough over the northern plains will drop south tonight into Monday bringing another chance of rain to the area late tonight and Monday as it moves across the region.
Another round of showers and thundershowers have kicked off this afternoon mainly north and south of the Highway 12 corridor. The remainder of this forecast period will feature more quiet weather as high pressure gradually takes hold of the pattern.
Otherwise chances of showers will continue the remainder of the night into Mon AM as a cold front over nrn WI moves swd along with an upper trough axis. Lingering low level convergence along with the approach and passage of mid level trough axis, will keep at least a small chance of showers going, mainly for the morning hours. Northeast winds will bring a cooler airmass into the area.
1131 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 At H5 strong closed low over the Aleutians. sharp ridge all the way into the Yukon. Quasi blocking pattern developing over the west coast. Quasi blocking pattern to the south of Greenland. These features are allowing a broad trough across the Northern CONUS. The current upper air pattern will hold through the end of the work week till it begins to transition as the upper ridge to the west begins to shift east. As a storm moves across the southern Gulf through the week upper high over northern Mexico will build and move north into the Desert Southwest allowing waves to move out of the base of the trough along the west coast and move over the central Rockies into Western Kansas.
A warm front continue to move north through the region with only portions of northeast Arkansas remaining north of the boundary. The warm front will continue to move north during the remainder of the afternoon before a cold front starts to move into northwest Arkansas this evening and into central Arkansas overnight. Temperatures will be a little warmer than the last couple of night with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s. On Monday, the cold front will start to drop south into the forecast area reaching north Mississippi by late afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Also, given the precip in our far east today and current dew points in the lower 50s, there seems to be a risk of patchy fog east of Miles City and Broadus late tonight. Dry and warmer conditions on tap for Monday, though easterly surface winds will keep mixing in check and temps still below normal.
1046 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A reinforcing cold front will continue to push through Sweetwater County through this evening. The RH has been in the teens in Southern Wyoming this afternoon but will soon be replaced with higher dew points as the cold front comes to the rescue.
High pressure remains in control of our current weather pattern, as it so typically does during the summer season, and is currently situated to our south over Mexico. By nature, westerly flow is prevailing to the north of this high and is continually advecting drier air into our CWA. With drying conditions and heights gradually building, temperatures are forecast to gradually warm to the low 110s by the middle part of this week.
1029 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Low pressure system crosses late tonight and Monday.
Following along with the earlier update and mesoscale discussion, differential heating and sharpening ageostrophic flow of winds near the warm front, ahead of the approaching MCV in northeast AR, just west of the Missouri Bootheel, is leading to increased instability. Rain-cooled air along the elevated warm front over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky will continue to work east-northeast for the remainder of the afternoon.
/issued 932 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ A warm front remains across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee this evening. A warm front continue to move north through the region with only portions of northeast Arkansas remaining north of the boundary. The warm front will continue to move north during the remainder of the afternoon before a cold front starts to move into northwest Arkansas this evening and into central Arkansas overnight. Temperatures will be a little warmer than the last couple of night with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s. On Monday, the cold front will start to drop south into the forecast area reaching north Mississippi by late afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1108 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 The low pressure system that created flash flooding issues last night will move off to the SE leaving a light NE wind and widespread low cloud deck overhead today. This cloud cover will help to keep temperatures even more unseasonably cool today with highs in the low to mid 70s expected. Surface ridging will build in from the north with consistent NE winds keeping the area nice and cool for early August the next few days.
1015 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 High pressure slowly shifts to our south and east tonight into Monday.
Otherwise, high pressure will build across western and central North Dakota tonight into Monday. Did trend on the cooler edge of forecast guidance through the 12 UTC global suites and 17 UTC hi- resolution suites with good radiational cooling with the high. However, dewpoints perhaps remaining in the mid 40s to lower 50s is a limiting factor to widespread lows in the lower 40s or colder even with the cool start to the evening.
Lower levels are cooler and nearer saturation, so relatively easy for at least lighter showers to develop as we go through the night. /issued 327 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ The leading edge of the northerly winds and cooler air has come in a bit ahead of schedule, visiting all but the southern Rolling Plains as of 1940Z. Otherwise, we may see additional scattered elevated showers and storms attempt to develop over the cooler airmass tonight, though coverage will likely be less than what was anticipated earlier. Lastly, storms originating over the higher terrain of New Mexico this afternoon will propagate east- southeastward and will have a good chance of affecting spots out near the TX/NM line.
1048 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 High pressure will give way to an approaching low pressure system and showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Monday night.
In the wake of the local boundaries, position of the ridge axis places the north and interior in synoptic light south wind, with light-moderate SE flow over the Treasure Coast and south Brevard.
Increasing cloudiness and moisture will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s, a few degrees warmer than previous nights.
Recent storm development over N TX will spread / develop east and southward through the evening leaving the highest chances confined to extreme SE OK. Further northward a reinforcing cold front has pushed near Interstate 44 with scattered light showers possible along and ahead of this boundary.
Hot temperatures areawide, and ample low level moisture, have increased SBCape to at least 1500 J/Kg across the Permian Basin, but only 500-1000 J/Kg over the higher terrain due to a bit drier air there. A cold front is located over the Texas Panhandle and easing southward.
1010 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 An area of low pressure will move out of the Tennessee River Valley to near Philadelphia by late Monday. High pressure will bring drier and more seasonably cool temperatures for mid week. Min temps will vary from the mid 50s NW to the low-mid 60s in the SE. Forecast storm total rainfall should stay well below even the lowest 6-hourly FFG values of 1.
The 500 mb ridge axis has nudged slightly to the north with easterlies organizing slightly more below.
Little change is expected through Monday as a weak upper level trough remains over northern California, maintaining a moderately deep marine layer. A slight inland warming trend is then expected around midweek as the upper level ridge to our southeast strengthens a bit. A weak upper low moving inland across northern California combined with residual monsoon moisture to produce widespread thunderstorms across the higher mountains of northern California today. The upper low's impact on our area was limited to slightly cooler temperatures in most areas as the marine layer deepened and moderate onshore flow persisted. High temperatures today were near normal or even slightly cooler than normal. The upper low is forecast to linger over or near northern California for much of the week ahead.
Wednesday will be sunny and significantly warmer, with high temperatures in the upper 20s across northwest Minnesota and lower 30s into North Dakota.
224 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Upper level trough continues to move east out of the forecast area this afternoon.
225 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Have deep trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains while a ridge extends from the Desert SW to the Northern Rockies. The ridge will build across the west as the trough moves east providing mild wx for the region.
As the high moves away, winds will turn around to the south, and begin to increase again.
304 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 A trough of low pressure will move east across the area tonight.
1145 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure will bring relatively light snow to the region today followed by bitter cold on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week. Update to expand advisory to Westmoreland Ridges and to extend the headline in time through the tonight period. The upper jet has been slow to depart, preventing the cold front from making ewd progress and maintaining warm advection aloft through the dendritic growth zone. Ridge snow will be rather efficient, and light snow will continue all areas through much of the day. The fluffy nature of this snow will allow some to see the higher end of those ranges, but with a long duration event (started midday yesterday), 12hr Advisory criteria will likely not be met outside of current Advisories, thus no changes to headlines were made.
Water vapor imagery shows flow dropping south/southwest across the region in the wake of yesterdays upper trough. Some filtered sunshine from time to time Wednesday as most models drive a short wave over the western CONUS ridge across North Dakota Wednesday. We warmed temperatures and over the west, especially to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge into the lower 30s.
1215 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure will bring relatively light snow to the region today followed by bitter cold on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week. Update to expand advisory to Westmoreland Ridges and to extend the headline in time through the tonight period. The upper jet has been slow to depart, preventing the cold front from making ewd progress and maintaining warm advection aloft through the dendritic growth zone. Ridge snow will be rather efficient, and light snow will continue all areas through much of the day. The fluffy nature of this snow will allow some to see the higher end of those ranges, but with a long duration event (started midday yesterday), 12hr Advisory criteria will likely not be met outside of current Advisories, thus no changes to headlines were made.
Arctic high pressure currently in the Dakotas early this morning will move to the east today. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build into Montana today bring dry and warmer weather. Shallow inversions will keep most of the valleys colder than nearby ridges today. Warm air advection tonight with upper ridge moving into Eastern Montana will limit how much fall for lows tonight. West winds will develop around midnight tonight as a warm front passes through the areas which will bring rising temperatures overnight. Temperatures will rise to above freezing in most areas and be 10 to 15 above normal for highs.
928 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2018 Rain, mixed with wet snow and brief freezing rain will slowly push across the Inland Northwest today.
Arctic high pressure resides over the Plains today, the center of which was over Kansas this afternoon. The high center will drift southeast over our area tonight. The persistent La Nina ridge in the west, trough in the east pattern this winter will be flipped.
Freezing line continues to shift south this morning and nearly all of S TX should be below freezing by early afternoon. Areas of light rain/light drizzle continue across the southern portions of the CWA with light freezing rain/freezing drizzle mixed with sleet occurring across the far western and northern half of S TX. Expect most areas to transition to periods of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet through the afternoon.
The center of an Arctic high pressure over the western Dakotas is producing bitter cold temperatures this morning with readings in the teens below to 25 degrees below zero. The Arctic high pressure should push south of the CWA by this afternoon with southerly winds developing. The southerly winds will continue ushering in warmer temps tonight with lows only in the single digits on either side of zero.
Looking at soundings and time/height sections, the low level moisture tonight will stretch into the dendritic growth zone. Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today, but still top out in the lower 20s at the most.
Northwesterly flow within the mid levels and south to southwesterly flow in the lower levels will continue to help progressively increase our temperatures throughout the week.
The coldest air was associated with the high in the Plains with warmer air actually wrapping west and southwest around the Great Lakes low back across Wisconsin. Doppler radar continues to show pockets of flurries (small crystals looking out the window) rotating southward associated with the upper level trough from the Great Lakes to IA. However, as this warmer air continues to spread southwest into the dvn cwa the headline may be able to be cancelled sooner. Today: Upper level trough over the area this morning will keep mention of scattered flurries across the cwa. Later in the afternoon the trough shifts eastward ending the flurries. Tonight: High pressure ridge will settle into the cwa with light winds and clearing skies.
A bitterly cold Arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas tonight as Arctic high pressure transitions southeastward into the area. Southerly winds will increase with high pressure becomes centered across the southeastern U. while low pressure develops across the Plains.
Wind chills not quite in warning criteria across the valley as mixing seems to be keeping temps warmer than anticipated, nonetheless will be a brutally cold morning and will leave headlines as is with an ending time of 17z.
144 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 20z surface analysis had low pressure over central AB with warm front into western NE. 12z KUNR sounding showed warm air ready to invade and it is clearly doing so, most pronounced over the higher elevations. Warm front will rush through the CWA with sustained warm air advection leading to widespread readings crossing the 40F threshold Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will rise above freezing between 11AM and 1PM Wednesday with highs into the mid and upper 30s across the east and low 40s across the west.
Temperatures will fall into the low single digits, but when it's that cold, it only take a 5-8 mph wind to cause wind chills of -5 to -10 degrees, and that's likely what we'll see.
A weak storm system brings a mix of valley rain, some freezing rain and higher elevation snow today but significant precipitation is not anticipated.
An upper level ridge spreads east onto the Plains, which is responsible for a warmup. The ridge then breaks down and gives way to a closed low, increasing wintry precip chances. Behind it, a Pacific cool front crosses the northern Plains late week and is followed by a rapidly deepening lee side low (associated with the closed upper low).
Afternoon high temps on Wed will only be in the lower 20s, upper teens Cumberland Plateau Region. Despite the end of snowfall, with these forecasted temps, it is likely that some refreezing of water from sunshine breaking out late this afternoon and again on Wed will occur on area roadways, not to mention shaded areas that might receive only minor roadway melting.
However, we are in full swing of snow for most of the area with the exception of southwest NC where they have light rain and temps are in the low 40s. Snowfall amounts are still forecast to be generally in the 1 to 3 inch range with some of the higher elevations picking up 2 to 3 more inches than the lower elevations. Today's snow will come into play, because if we can get a decent ground coverage that persists through Wednesday, then with clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling Wednesday night may produce min temps on the low side of the guidance envelope.
Overnight water vapor imagery placed the center of the central CONUS upper trough over the western Great Lakes, with a upper ridge axis from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Deep northerly flow aloft on the backside of the trough was funneling very cold air into the CWFA, with ambient temperatures in the single digits and teens below zero. Models/ensembles are in good agreement with the dominance of the a large scale ridge pattern through the short term.
Precipitation associated with an upper trough in southeast Oregon, which has been primarily rain south of a Burns to Ontario line, and snow north of the line, will weaken and move into southwest Idaho late this morning through mid-afternoon. Short wave trough and surface cold front in central Oregon will weaken as it moves east today but will still be strong enough to produce light pcpn in all of eastern Oregon this morning. Clearing from west to east tonight, and dry Wednesday, except a slight chance of rain and snow in the higher terrain of Baker County Wednesday. Will continue a slight chance of light freezing rain this morning in central Malheur County, OR, and the sw corner of Owyhee County, ID.
241 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Partly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70s were found across the area this afternoon. Strong cold front was moving into the Florida Panhandle. Cold front to reach Chiefland around 12Z then move south of Fort Myers by 20Z. We are starting off Wednesday night with a powerful cold front exiting the area. Lows will get into the mid to upper 20's north of I-4 with at or below freezing temperatures expected as far south as interior Sarasota County.
Despite increased sun over the area today, cold air will remain in place at most locations, with eastern plains staying well below freezing another day. While min temps will still be below average, readings in most areas will stay several degf warmer than 24 hrs earlier, especially in the lee of the eastern mountains where weak downslope winds will begin to stir.
308 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Cold front has now pushed off shore over southeast TX with a very cold airmass situated over the Plains. In the upper levels, a positive tilted trough extends from the eastern Great Lakes into the Ozark region. Upper trough is expected to continue tracking east and will move across the Eastern Seaboard on Wed. Lows tonight will likely be colder than temps early this morning, but winds will be much lighter resulting in warmer wind chills. Weak upper ridging is forecast to track over the Rockies and into the northern Plains by Thu. They both track it across the desert southwest Sat, into the high Plains Sat night and across central KS on Sun.
303 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Highlights in the short term period include gusty westerly winds and warmer temperatures.
NListemaa A deep trough will be moving off the east coast at the start of the period with a transition to a northwest to west flow aloft.
On Wednesday, a deep trough of low pressure will begin to push eastward over the Appalachians. Mid range models prog an associated cold front, draped southward from the center of this low pressure system, to swiftly approach Florida. Maximum temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon are forecast in the low to mid 70s, a couple degrees lower than seasonal norms.
242 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 High pressure will prevail across the region most of the week with above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Since this system is more of a post-frontal overrunning rather than an eastward-moving low pressure system to our south, it's going to be difficult to see much precipitation, especially considering the strong push of cold/dry air behind the front. That said, with sfc temps eventually going well below freezing, it won't take much precip to cause impacts on roads. Wind chill warning criteria may be met in a few spots in the higher elevations but have kept this area as a separate segment in the advisory for now. SNELSON A deep trough will be moving off the east coast at the start of the period with a transition to a northwest to west flow aloft.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from East Tennessee back through Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the Northern Gulf of Mexico. A ridge of arctic high pressure will build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Wednesday. Leftover precipitation from last night's/today's winter storm will refreeze, especially on untreated surfaces as temperatures remain below freezing. Not much recovery in temperatures is expected on Wednesday with high pressure overhead.
South winds will develop on the backside of the high, and as a result lows tonight will not be quite as cold as last night. In the upper levels, ridging aloft will be building across the Rockies. Northwest flow aloft will dominate to the east of the ridge across our area.
1247 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 An upper level low will slowly track across the lower Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure will build south of the region mid to late week. Upper low will move east across the lower Great Lakes with the trailing positively tilted trough translating across the forecast area through the period. Still looks like readings should be able to get into the lower 20s on Wednesday.
336 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast has been responsible for breezy northeast winds. On Wednesday, a deep trough of low pressure will begin to push eastward over the Appalachians. This will drive a cold front through South Florida on Wednesday. Maximum temperatures Wednesday afternoon are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s, except near 70 in the northwest portion of the area, as the front will reach that location sooner.