Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
401 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A wedge of high pressure extending down from New England will persist through the middle portion of the week before shifting further eastward over the Atlantic. The low overcast should reach the Appalachians by daybreak. With the wedge of high pressure holding strong through at least Mon, don't see much in the way of sunshine today or Memorial Day. Sharp ridge axis is expected to crest over the area Memorial Day and Tue and largely inhibit, if not all, t-storm development. The low overcast will likely persist all day Monday with more breaks possible Tue as sfc wedge begins to lose its grip over the area.
Rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move northwards over the region this evening, pushing ahead of the main warm front draped across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. The best thunderstorm and severe parameters will remain attached to the warm front well to our south, but the early sunshine this morning will help bring a chance for some isolated thunder into our region this evening.
Temperatures have reached into the lower 90s this afternoon but have cooled into the 70s in and around thunderstorms. Another day in the lower 90s is expected tomorrow.
Early morning surface map shows 1000 mb low pressure over nw KS with a warm front extending eastward near the MO/IA border. Aloft a strong subtropical ridge was over the Atlantic States while 560 dm 500 mb low was along the MT/WY border and embedded within a upper level trof over the Rockies. Subtropical ridge builds over the mid Atlantic States and southern New England Mon/Tue with weak upper level low moving into north Texas. Not much change in weather pattern on Wed and Thu with daily chances of convection especially in afternoon/evening hours and staying warm and humid with highs in the lower 80s, and possibly warmer if we get enough sunshine.
Shower and thunderstorm chances then linger through midweek as the flow becomes slowed down by an upper low meandering over the southern Plains. The highest probabilities of seeing dense fog will be at KRST.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020/ Southwesterly flow aloft will continue tonight into Sunday as a trough axis sharpens from ERN MT into western Chihuahua. The upper level trough to our west will deepen as it inches closer to the CWA creating upper level southwest flow and large scale lift aloft. Monday a cold front will start to enter the CWA during the morning.
950 PM PDT Sat May 23 2020 Low clouds will be less extensive tonight, and be further confined to coastal areas or offshore after Monday morning as the marine layer shrinks under building high pressure aloft. Some thin high clouds are spilling over the PacNW ridge from NorCal to SoCal this evening, but this cloud cover is not likely to impact the forecast.
Tonight Through Monday An upper ridge continues over the southeast U. at this time with an upper low over the northern Rockies. The upper trough digs southward Sunday night and Monday as the upper ridge holds strong through Monday. High pressure remains to the east of Arkansas this afternoon producing some southerly flow over the area.
1249 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warming weather through midweek. A weak disturbance may support isolated, to scattered convection in the ridges this afternoon, but the day will feature much warmer temperature via rising heights and warm advection. Given sub-tropical jet positioning in Hudson Bay, Canada, significant high pressure reinforced by occluding low pressure in the southwestern CONUS will yield high temperature 10-15 degrees above average, reaching the upper 80s on Monday.
Otherwise, look for cooler temperatures across the area.
Upper ridge centered over the western Atlantic near the Bahamas will continue to ridge over our area overnight. Mid and upper level ridge building over the southeastern states Sunday moves north of the area Monday. allowing a backdoor cold front to push into the area late in the day Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
321 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 An upper trough extending from MT to Mexico will slowly move east crossing the Central Rockies tonight.
Over the next 24 hours, upper level ridging will gradually weaken across the area as a trough develops across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
On Sunday, a strong area of high pressure will move into the area from the west, leading to a warming trend.
245 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Another warm afternoon is in store for the Missouri Ozarks as temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s today. Looking ahead to Monday, we will see the return of showers and thunderstorms to region by the afternoon hours as the broad trough begins to settle into the Southern Plains region.
Isolated TSRA will be in the vicinity of the terminals Sunday afternoon, with the higher chances near CHA and TYS, so included PROB30's for brief MVFR. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 67 86 68 82 / 30 30 50 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 65 85 65 84 / 30 20 50 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 65 86 65 84 / 20 20 50 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 62 83 61 83 / 10 10 40 20 30.
232 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 The upper low will remain over southeastern Montana today with an upper trough extending southward across eastern Wyoming. Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are expected today into this evening due to the proximity of the upper low and instability enhanced by diurnal heating and cold advection aloft. Although much of the area will see dry weather on Monday, there is a chance of afternoon showers over the Black Hills, with showers and thunderstorms possible over parts of southwestern into south central South Dakota in active southwesterly flow aloft, to the east of the upper trough.
352 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warming weather through midweek. A weak disturbance may support isolated, to scattered convection in the ridges this afternoon, but the day will feature much warmer temperature via rising heights and warm advection. Given sub-tropical jet positioning in Hudson Bay, Canada, significant high pressure reinforced by occluding low pressure in the southwestern CONUS will yield high temperature 10-15 degrees above average, reaching the upper 80s on Monday.
Additional storms are expectred to develop late today, initially near a triple point of a front and dryline intersection in the northeast Texas panhandle, and then further south along the dryline in the eastern Texas panhandle as forcing impinges on these boundaries from approaching upper trough.
Hooley Our upper low was spinning over western Wyoming this afternoon, and is expected to drift northeast into southeast Montana by Sunday morning. We are looking for the best precipitation coverage to shift east overnight into Sunday, and then slowly wind down as the upper low shifts east of Montana Sunday night. By the end of the weak with the ridging, temperatures will be getting into the 80s if not approaching the 90s.
Barring a few diurnally driven showers or storms by peak heating, subsidence behind the aforementioned trough should keep conditions mostly quiet today. Models are in good agreement in generating an MCS ahead of this trough, but the timing and eventual track of this potential MCS is at odds among the core models and some CAMs.
Return flow is expected to persist through the weekend due to an upper level trough currently centered just west of the Rockies digging into the Southern Plains.
Deep layer ridging will build over the area today, allowing for subsidence and overall drier conditions. Still, with temperatures rising into the low-mid 90s again, the temperature gradient should lead to an afternoon seabreeze front and the development of isolated thunderstorms. Warmer air aloft will make for much lower instability today, causing any storms that form to be more shallow and shorter lived than they were yesterday. The highest instability and chances for these storms will be closer to the Gulf coast/west of I-75, although isolated storms may also move into SE GA later in the afternoon.
Cut some Sky cover back, to account for the decrease in clouds as the Low pressure system lifts northeast out of the lower Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes overnight. Compact energy over Iowa early this afternoon will continue to the northeast bringing its associated warm front into northern Illinois. Pattern not expected to change much over the next several days with ridging along the east coast and a broad weakness over the central U. Toward the end of the week the ridge to our east is expected to begin to break down as northern stream energy finally is able to make its way down into the Midwest. Big question is how far south the associated cold front will get before stalling out.
KBVO looks to have the higher precip potential and will carry VCSH.
Drier conditions expected for the remainder of the week as upper level high pressure sets up.
In addition, a cold front will move into the region by evening and overnight.
Mid level ridge to remain centered over the eastern Conus Monday. This places the Ohio Valley in a moist s-swrly flow around the periphery of this high.
This transport of air along with a longwave trof that extends down the eastern slopes of the rockies will have a series of impulses lifting out of the base and transported into Texas and Louisiana today. Temperatures will moderate as clouds and rain cooled air will keep the region about three to five degrees cooler.
-- Minor chances for precipitation -- A large dome of high pressure over the southeast US will pump warmer air north across the Great Lakes. We'll be on the periphery of the ridge and so any short waves that move eastward will nibble at the ridge, but likely be deflected northward.
There has not been a need to think about heat index values for awhile, but it looks like they could reach the lower 90s this afternoon.
We lowered PoP's there to be a more gradual increase through day as upper low drifts E/NE. BT An upper low is bringing light precipitation to much of southern MT early this morning. This low should move slowly east/northeastward today and cause the large scale lift to weaken and more widespread precipitation to break up into scattered precipitation.
North breezes will be confined primarily to the lower Colorado River Valley both days.
/issued 427 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020/ The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of a subtropical height ridge centered over the Carolinas today. Rain chances will increase by Memorial Day afternoon, when peak daytime heating coincides with modest midlevel height falls and deep layer sheer associated with a developing longwave trof over the high plains.
535 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warming weather through midweek. A weak disturbance may support isolated, to scattered convection in the ridges this afternoon, but the day will feature much warmer temperature via rising heights and warm advection. Given sub-tropical jet positioning in Hudson Bay, Canada, significant high pressure reinforced by occluding low pressure in the southwestern CONUS will yield high temperature 10-15 degrees above average, reaching the upper 80s on Monday.
653 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A warm front will lift north across the area this morning.
637 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Onshore flow will persist through Monday keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas with Monday being quite cool with cloud weather expected. High pressure builds over the East Coast leading to a significant warm up into the middle and end of the week.
427 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020 The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of a subtropical height ridge centered over the Carolinas today. Rain chances will increase by Memorial Day afternoon, when peak daytime heating coincides with modest midlevel height falls and deep layer sheer associated with a developing longwave trof over the high plains.
Highs this afternoon have trended slightly cooler, but rebound into the upper 70s/near 80.
This area of precip is projected to develop north through the morning hours, primarily along to east of the highway 83 corridor. Zonal flow sets up for the remainder of the work week, then broad ridging develops across the Rockies later in the week.
However, frontal boundary remains hung up in our far eastern CWA by mid-late afternoon, this could be a focus for greater late day development as temperatures climb into the lower 70s, and will hang on to some higher pops in our eastern areas late in the afternoon. Farther west, cooler air will dominate and Memorial Day will be on the cooler side with highs in the 60s.
823 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A cold front will move through today and usher in some lower humidity.
Warm front pushing across the area yesterday now well north, with upper ridge building along the Atlantic seaboard. By days end, upper ridge will be well established across the US eastern 1/3, while pretty good upper jet carves out deep trough across the nations mid-section. This upper trough will eventually form a cutoff upper low, which will set the stage for what will hold at least through through late Thu. Disconnected upper trough drops down across the region and swings across the mid-state late Sat. This also expected to force a cold front just of the area early Sun. Upper low across the southern plains remains cutoff.
516 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 The upper low will remain over southeastern Montana today with an upper trough extending southward across eastern Wyoming. Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are expected today into this evening due to the proximity of the upper low and instability enhanced by diurnal heating and cold advection aloft. Although much of the area will see dry weather on Monday, there is a chance of afternoon showers over the Black Hills, with showers and thunderstorms possible over parts of southwestern into south central South Dakota in active southwesterly flow aloft, to the east of the upper trough.
Morning central Florida soundings indicate moderate easterly flow in the low levels with PWATs ranging from 1. Will increase POPs some to 50-60 percent range across the far south otherwise current POPs mainly in the lower scattered range (30-40 percent) for the remainder of the interior and below 20 percent for the Volusia coast look good. E/SE pressure gradient will tighten between Atlc ridge axis to our north and lower pressure over the SE Gulf of Mexico.
634 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 A cold front will move through today and usher in some lower humidity.
Another warm afternoon is in store for the Missouri Ozarks as temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s today. Looking ahead to Monday, we will see the return of showers and thunderstorms to region by the afternoon hours as the broad trough begins to settle into the Southern Plains region.
634 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warming weather through midweek. Warm advection and high pressure will result in highs 10 degrees above the norm. Given sub-tropical jet positioning in Hudson Bay, Canada, significant high pressure reinforced by occluding low pressure in the southwestern CONUS will yield high temperature 10-15 degrees above average, reaching the upper 80s on Monday.
an approaching warm front will increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms late today and especially tonight. High pressure exiting to our east will equate to fair weather for most areas today. Warm front pushes northward across our region tonight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
A significant warming trend is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the Great Basin.
332 AM PDT Sun May 24 2020 Upper level ridging will continue building into the area today into Monday. The ridge axis will flatten as the frontal system moves inland to the north on Monday.
523 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 Current GOES-R WV/IR imagery showed a upper low pressure center over southern Montana with a trough axis extending south into Arizona.
Additional storms are expected to develop late today, initially near a triple point of a front and dryline intersection in the northeast Texas panhandle, and then further south along the dryline in the eastern Texas panhandle as forcing impinges on these boundaries from approaching upper trough.
321 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 An upper low is bringing light precipitation to much of southern MT early this morning. This low should move slowly east/northeastward today and cause the large scale lift to weaken and more widespread precipitation to break up into scattered precipitation.
Most of the CWFA is enjoying clear skies with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. High pressure will yield dry conditions for the next few days. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected as a low-amplitude ridge expands over the Great Basin.
/issued 321 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020/ An upper trough extending from MT to Mexico will slowly move east crossing the Central Rockies tonight.
254 AM PDT Sun May 24 2020 Low clouds very slow to develop this morning, and will be further confined to coastal areas or offshore after Monday morning as the marine layer shrinks under building high pressure aloft. Warmer weather is expected today as the upper trough over the Great Basin shifts east and an upper ridge begins to amplify off the coast.
For today, a closed low will move into southeast Montana as the main upper trough extends south through the Southern Rockies. Highs will be cooler behind the front, ranging from the mid to upper 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. For tonight, as the main upper trough moves slowly eastward, a disturbance from southeast CO into southern Kansas early this evening will lift northeastward tonight. On Memorial Day, the upper trough will advance into western Nebraska.
316 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 Current GOES-R WV/IR imagery showed a upper low pressure center over southern Montana with a trough axis extending south into Arizona.
Dry weather, increasing interior temperatures, and breezy winds are expected for the foreseeable future as high pressure continues to build over Northwest California. By early in the coming week, high temperatures across the interior will climb into the low to upper 90s. Inland temperatures will continue to be on the rise today and top out in the mid to upper 80s in the warmer spots across the interior. Similar conditions are expected across the forecast area on Monday as high pressure continues to build. Interior temperatures will continue to be on the increase by several degrees, with highs in the low 90s in the warmer locations.
Widespread convection is expected to evolve along the surface cold front during the evening hours over central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. An active pattern remains Monday into much of the upcoming week, as a highly amplified upper trough slowly moves into the Plains states. This upper trough may become closed off by mid/late week, drifting over the Southern Plains with a frontal boundary extending northeastward near/across the forecast area.
Meanwhile an upper low was noted over northern WY with a trough axis extending south to NM. Redevelopment should take place along a cold front that was located from south central NEB to southwest KS as the low level jet increases overnight. Highs should be cooler with clouds and precip keeping readings in the 70s for the most part.
Aloft, this weather pattern consist of an upper level blocking ridge remaining quasi stationary and enhanced across locations approaching U.
Trough kicking off fairly widespread showers from Cheyenne over into the southern Panhandle that extend up into the northern Nebraska Panhandle. Warming begins Monday afternoon as 700mb winds turn more westerly with the approach of upper level ridging. 700mb temperatures climb back to +5C across Carbon County as trough moves into central Nebraska.
For Memorial Day, models continue to show a wave working up the east side of the mid/upper level trof centered over the Plains. This pattern continues as weak disturbances continue to move along the trof.
The main upper low moves into North Dakota on Monday, leading to some lingering wrap around showers mainly over the central and east.
The elevated near surface moisture content does give pause for possible fog development overnight under increasing low to mid level ridging.
At the moment, one potential limiting factor for tornadoes is the lack of east/southeast flow with these winds immediately ahead of the convection that will limit the low level helicity available.
1136 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 Current GOES-R WV/IR imagery showed a upper low pressure center over southern Montana with a trough axis extending south into Arizona.
341 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 An MCV continues to move out of northeast KS this afternoon, while a cold front bisects the remainder of the forecast area. Farther north, along the stalled cold front, there is a small chance that a couple of strong storms could develop along strengthening cumulus west and southwest of Lincoln.
123 PM PDT Sun May 24 2020 Strong high pressure aloft will bring summer-like heat to the region much of this week with record highs possible.
335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Surface ridging builds into the state from the northeast overnight and persists through the period. Region remains on the southwestern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the western Atlantic Ocean/mid-Atlantic coast region.
This soupy air mass exists to the north of a negatively tilted 500 mb trough extending from the upper Texas coast to the Yucatan Channel to near Grand Cayman. This placement puts the Keys under difluent flow aloft, and this will continue until the slow-moving trough axis lifts north of the Keys on Monday PM. Weak low pressure over the Yucatan Channel or over far western Cuba will move northward through the eastern Gulf from this afternoon through Monday night.
Another hot day is in store for Memorial Day as the region remains situated under a persistent ridging pattern. With the aid of southerly flow and WAA, have temps climbing into the upper 80s with heat index values in the low 90s. a cutoff upper low. This time the low looks to stall out over the Southern Plains/Red River Valley region, but this location will have some impact on our weather in the Ohio Valley. It will mean less low-level thicknesses across the region, leading to forecast temperatures a little cooler than the heat we've had the last couple of days.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower 70s.
Conditions will return to VFR after mid evening, but as an upper trough approaches from the south late tonight through Monday, mid level cloud cover will increase, with high end MVFR ceilings possible after 12z. An upper ridge will continue to build over the eastern conus from the western Atlantic through the near term. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Rockies, with a southeastward extension over the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to move eastward over the Great Plains. The increasing cloud cover and precipitation will limit daytime heating, bringing a cooler day to the forecast area for Memorial Day than previous days. With the cooler temperatures over a significant portion of the forecast area, the chance of strong storms decreases significantly.
128 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a slight chance for afternoon or evening storms with passing weak disturbances. A slow-moving trough in the Srn Plains will enable an ern-CONUS ridge to amplify early this week, with the ridge axis building into the OH Valley. Despite increasing moisture and instability, lack of low-level convergence and broad subsidence amid the upper-level ridge axis will suppress a widespread threat of convection during the early half of the week, with the best potential being on the periphery of the ridge in an area west of a line from ZZV to FKL.
104 PM PDT Sun May 24 2020 A warming trend will prevail inland through midweek as high pressure builds over California.
Some recovery will take place across Iowa later today as winds shift more southerly and a warm front lifts north.