Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
244 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 A closed midlevel low pressure is currently tracking over the AZ/UT state line and is forecasted to keep progressing eastward over the Four Corners today. The guidance continues to struggle with the high valley inversions therefore had to lower highs substantially in those spots. Tomorrow the closed low pressure lifts out over the southern plains and an upper ridge builds over the region causing the 700 mb temperatures to warm by 5- 10 degrees. This will be reflected in the highs with the exception of the high snow covered valleys that will most likely still be trapped under inversions.
The upper troughing should tighten the surface pressure gradient across West Central Texas by this afternoon, resulting in gusty south winds.
METAR obs indicate sub- freezing temperatures and lowering visibilities across the area. These factors along with low dewpoint depressions will result in possible freezing fog and/or icy elevated surfaces this morning. High pressure begins to slide eastward across the Mid-South today. Cloud cover begins to increase across the area on Friday as a low pressure system begins to progress towards the Lower MS Valley.
426 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 12Z TAF CYCLE A Pacific low will move east across northern NM later today through tonight, resulting southwest flow in the lower layers veering northwest with time. A mainly dry upper low will slide east through northern New Mexico today, resulting in increasing clouds along with slightly cooler temperatures and northwest breezes. High pressure builds back in Friday and continues into the weekend. An upper level ridge will begin to build and shift east into the area late Friday in the wake of the departing low. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer Friday under mostly sunny skies. A tranquil weekend is in store underneath a building ridge of high pressure.
Ridge of high pressure gets bumped down a bit this afternoon with a quick moving trof.
Towards the evening hours, cloud cover will increase from the southwest as weak upper level ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow returns. This increase in cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the Four State Region will keep low temperatures tonight from reaching the freezing mark in our western and southwestern zones. Some areas in southwest Arkansas will likely get below freezing before the cloud cover increases for those locations. For Friday, an approaching upper level low and positively-tilted trough will dig south into portions of the Texas Panhandle.
High pressure will return for the remainder of the week.
For today, a ridge aloft will track across the region, with plenty of high clouds associated with it. Quickly following the ridge is a mid-level trof, that'll move across the region tonight into Friday. Once again this morning it appears that trof will come through basically dry per models and soundings. After the trof moves through, the ridge aloft will rebound across the forecast area Friday, and then persist through the weekend.
Overnight lows tonight will only drop into the lower 30s in the west under the more expansive cloud cover.
After a cold start, with temperatures from the mid teens in the north, to the lower 20s in the south, we should see ample sunshine in the forecast today. This translates to highs today in the lower to middle 40s across the bulk of the region, with perhaps some upper 40s/pushing 50 in the southwest (SEMO Ozarks). The upper ridge of high pressure shifts its axis to our east during the daytime Friday, while the southern branch Low we've been following takes shape in the Red River Valley.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 30s across the lowlands and upper 20s to low 30s for higher elevations. With this in mind, elected to sway from central guidance for Thursday morning lows and incorporate colder temperatures in the north while still maintaining slightly warmer temps around the Charleston metro and southward, where warm 925mb temps will still reside tonight. This warming trend will continue into the weekend under upper level ridging. The high confidence forecast for any precipitation is that the southern mountains may get grazed by moisture from the southern stream upper low traversing the northern Gulf Coast.
1010 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 A closed midlevel low pressure is currently tracking over the AZ/UT state line and is forecasted to keep progressing eastward over the Four Corners today. The guidance continues to struggle with the high valley inversions therefore had to lower highs substantially in those spots. Tomorrow the closed low pressure lifts out over the southern plains and an upper ridge builds over the region causing the 700 mb temperatures to warm by 5- 10 degrees. This will be reflected in the highs with the exception of the high snow covered valleys that will most likely still be trapped under inversions.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side as high pressure maintains control of the atmosphere. This upper low will track along the northern Gulf Coast through the weekend.
1030 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 Upper air analysis shows strong upper trough pivoting through the SW US as ridging slides east. At the surface, a weak trough will move through the area today resulting in winds shifting out of the northwest by late morning as slightly cooler air filters into the region. Split flow will prevail over the next few days as northern stream trough lifts northward and a cutoff low develops across the southern Plains. Further upstream, a trough will slowly dig off the southern California coast resulting in large-scale ridging over the west-central US Friday through the weekend.
With that said, some guidance (mainly the NAM and its derivatives) push the lowest levels of the atmosphere toward saturation across portions of SW MN leaving the remote possibility of freezing drizzle. Mid and upper level ridge rebuilds for the weekend continuing our stretch of dry and quiet weather. With 850 mb temperatures near climatological maxes, every little bit of extra mixing above the surface will result in warmer afternoon temperatures.
218 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 A pretty good range of temperatures ongoing across the CWA early this afternoon, with mid to upper 50s in the southwest corner of MO into southeast Kansas while parts of Dent county have just made it into the low 40s. For tonight, will see the upper low out west begin to close off and track more southeast into the southern plains. Temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s out east to the low 30s out west. The low will slowly progress to the east on Friday into Oklahoma. The low will then track southeast into Arkansas and Louisiana and then the southeast U.
High pressure over LA helping to keep the light and generally easterly or southeasterly. Warmer tonight that last night's chilly readings by 5 to 10 degrees.
Worst conditions today are expected from the Lower Treasure Valley through the Upper Weiser Valley, and eastern Baker County/OR through Adams County/ID. Southern valleys will rise above freezing later today and roads will become wet. Steady or slowly rising temps tonight and warmer Friday as snow and rain decrease from sw to ne.
1247 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 We will remain under the influence of high pressure anchored over the east 1/3 of the country, with weak return south flow across our area in the short term. An upper level low will move from over the southern Rockies, ending up over the southern Plains by Friday night. The models generally agree the aforementioned upper low will stay to our south and move across the Gulf Coast. This will keep high pressure the dominant weather feature along with s/wv ridging aloft.
1258 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 An upper trough and surface front will move through the Plains tonight. While no precipitation is expected in this forecast area, low clouds and fog may develop, especially along the Prairie Coteau in the trough axis early Friday morning. Overall, though, the weather will be fairly tranquil with temperatures warming to well above freezing on Friday along and west of the Missouri River.
203 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through the remainder of the week bringing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
Otherwise, high level clouds will begin to increase tonight into tomorrow in response to an upper level low approaching from the west. The upper level ridge currently overhead is beginning to exit the area to the east and is making way for more unsettled weather in the form of an upper level low which is expected to move into the southern half of the area by mid to late afternoon Friday. In the meantime, high level clouds from the eastern periphery of this system will overspread the area today with increasing cloud cover expected tonight into tomorrow as the aforementioned low pressure center moves closer.
Temperatures will climb above the freezing mark each day between now and Christmas, which should easily decimate the little snow that is currently on the ground. Warm air streaming in from the southwest over the next few days will produce low clouds at times as the low-level temperatures inversion becomes significant.
239 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will bring fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region into the weekend.
156 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 An upper level trough is moving out of the four corners this afternoon with its fanfare limited to some extra high cloudiness across central NM. This feature should transition our part of the state by mid-day on Friday subsequently driving a cold front through on Friday morning. A nice warmup is anticipated for Sat-Mon as upper level ridging traverses the area.
/issued 957 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will begin to slide off to the east today and will allow winds to turn around to the southeast. METAR obs indicate sub- freezing temperatures and lowering visibilities across the area. These factors along with low dewpoint depressions will result in possible freezing fog and/or icy elevated surfaces this morning. High pressure begins to slide eastward across the Mid-South today. Cloud cover begins to increase across the area on Friday as a low pressure system begins to progress towards the Lower MS Valley.
Currently, an upper trough is over the Four corners, and and dig down and pass thru the srn plains w/out much fanfare Fri.
Warmer weather will arrive Friday along with locally gusty northeast winds to around 35 mph on the west-facing mountains slopes.
249 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure will continue to shift east over the next 24 hours. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. By Friday Night, an upper level low pressure system will begin to track eastward out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend.
Expecting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and slightly warmer temperatures compares to yesterday.
However, the low sun angle and limited melted through Friday, will hold off on fog potential in far southern and east central Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. A better chance of fog/freezing drizzle/flurries occurs in central Minnesota toward sunrise, and during the day Friday. Confidence has increased that no impacts are expected from the freezing precipitation, even if it does form briefly.
Warming trend remains on track for the weekend as a stronger ridge builds over the central conus. Southerly flow and WAA beneath the ridge pushes 850mb temps to 10-14c. Widespread highs in the 40s are likely across the forecast area, possibly into the low 50s south. The consequence of just a couple degrees is minimal, but the forecast was nudged upward given the high confidence.
The upper level ridge currently overhead is beginning to exit the area to the east and is making way for more unsettled weather in the form of an upper level low which is expected to move into the southern half of the area by mid to late afternoon Friday. In the meantime, high level clouds from the eastern periphery of this system will overspread the area today with increasing cloud cover expected tonight into tomorrow as the aforementioned low pressure center moves closer.
957 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will begin to slide off to the east today and will allow winds to turn around to the southeast. METAR obs indicate sub- freezing temperatures and lowering visibilities across the area. These factors along with low dewpoint depressions will result in possible freezing fog and/or icy elevated surfaces this morning. High pressure begins to slide eastward across the Mid-South today. Cloud cover begins to increase across the area on Friday as a low pressure system begins to progress towards the Lower MS Valley.
As of 9 AM MST snow was falling in the Idaho the Lower Treasure Valley, Weiser River Basin, west central Idaho mountains, and southern part of the Boise Mountains. Worst conditions today are expected from the Lower Treasure Valley through the Upper Weiser Valley, and eastern Baker County/OR through Adams County/ID. Southern valleys will rise above freezing later today and roads will become wet. Steady or slowly rising temps tonight and warmer Friday as snow and rain decrease from sw to ne.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 30s across the lowlands and upper 20s to low 30s for higher elevations. With this in mind, elected to sway from central guidance for Thursday morning lows and incorporate colder temperatures in the north while still maintaining slightly warmer temps around the Charleston metro and southward, where warm 925mb temps will still reside tonight. This warming trend will continue into the weekend under upper level ridging. Dry with gradually warming conditions as high pressure surface and aloft remains in control.
More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend as a cold front moves across the region.
126 PM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 This will be a quiet period with a building upper level ridge over the area. Dry and slightly warmer as heights increase and full sunshine Friday. The challenges will be overnight lows in the higher valleys where they will likely dip below guidance.
As a broad ridge begins to build across the western US, the axis will nudge closer to the western Dakotas overnight. The eastern periphery of the ridge nudges into the western Dakotas through the day on Friday, which will help to clear out any lingering fog and/or stratus by the afternoon hours. This will give way to a mostly sunny sky with highs in the low to mid 30s across the central and northwest.
230 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 A much warmer afternoon than yesterday, as temperatures at 2 pm ranged from near 20 across north-central WI to the mid 30s in northeast Iowa. High clouds were streaming in from the west in broad southwest flow on the back side of mid-upper level ridging sliding to our east. That said, some soundings are indicating a sufficiently deep moist layer in conjunction with some lift as this system passes by Friday afternoon/evening that there could be some patchy freezing drizzle, mainly north of I-94.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. More favorable radiational cooling conditions expected tonight with pressure ridge across the area/clear skies and near calm winds. Should be cooler than last night in most locations. Local radiation scheme in the low 20s. Pressure ridge extending from the northeast across the Carolinas through Friday night. Upper ridge axis shifts to the east of the area during the day Friday and southwest flow aloft developing. Cloudiness increasing during the overnight so temperatures warming up to mostly above freezing.
130 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 A ridge of high pressure is situated across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with cool temperatures, low dew points and sunny skies the result. The ridge will slip east of the mid state overnight, setting up return flow by tomorrow and the beginnings of a warming trend. An inverted trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico will combine with an upper low moving eastward along the Gulf Coast this weekend to spread clouds and some rain into the mid state.
High pressure in control at the surface and aloft with slowly warming temperatures into the 30s and then 40s this afternoon.
136 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 High pressure overhead which resulted in clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures during the day will continue to dominate our weather tonight. Clear skies and light winds provide for ideal radiational cooling dropping overnight temperatures into the lower 30s. Rinse and repeat for Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the lower 50s. Biggest difference from Thursday will be increased cloud cover and moisture from southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough to our west. This will result in a slightly warmer evening with lows staying above freezing.
We will see slightly cooler highs with lower 50s instead of mid 50s today. The fire danger will be a little lower tomorrow with the slightly cooler highs and higher relative humidities. A sfc trof axis will segment and then move across the state resulting in a weak wind shift in the morning.
1030 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Near term trends on track this morning with strong ridging taking over and mostly clear skies. Low temps this morning will bottom out at or below freezing across all of north and central GA with highs getting up into the 40s 50s. Lows tonight will again be at or below freezing across the entire county warning area with highs rebounding a bit Friday into the 50s to near 60. 01 Models in better agreement on handling the lower MS Valley upper low.
Models remain consistent on ridge building over the eastern U.
High pressure will once again build over the area beginning tonight. A weak upper trough exiting the local area to the east this morning will open the door for rapid ridge amplification, building heights, and warming aloft beginning later today.
A clear and cool day today as high pressure is now overhead.
With the abundant sunshine today and warmer south winds, the snowpack has begun to melt.
227 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 (Tonight and Friday) An upper level low currently centered near the 4 Corners region will track southwest across northern New Mexico overnight. The aforementioned upper level low will then track across the Texas South Plains on Friday.
Clouds will clear southwest to northeast this afternoon as the jet shifts east and ridging begins to build overhead. Models remain consistent on ridge building over the eastern U.
225 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Benign fcst period on tap being largely ridge dominated and mostly clear and conditions persisting overnight. Upper flow starts to shift to more southwesterly later Friday ahead of an approaching closed low to the west.
/Issued 1030 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019/ Near term trends on track this morning with strong ridging taking over and mostly clear skies. Low temps this morning will bottom out at or below freezing across all of north and central GA with highs getting up into the 40s 50s. Lows tonight will again be at or below freezing across the entire county warning area with highs rebounding a bit Friday into the 50s to near 60. 01 Models in better agreement on handling the lower MS Valley upper low.
Ridging aloft will build in from the west tonight into Friday.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Dry and cold surface ridging will dominate through tonight. Expect lows mainly in the lower 20s. Pressure ridge extending from the northeast across the Carolinas through Friday night. Upper ridge axis shifts to the east of the area during the day Friday and southwest flow aloft developing. Cloudiness increasing during the overnight so warming up to mostly above freezing.
/22/ Tonight through Friday: High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to build east through the region through Friday, with quiet conditions forecast to persist across the CWA. Slightly warmer conditions will exist Friday afternoon, as highs areawide climb into the 50s. This increased southwesterly flow aloft, will also prompt an increase in clouds over the region, as a mid/upper level low pressure system drops southeast into the southern plains states. Per the WPC model diagnostic discussion, agree that a slightly slower evolution of this system is more plausible per model biases, especially considering how the ridge folds over and builds north of the system almost forming a rex block. The forecasted pattern is unusual and the overall rarity is reflected by the low SLU CIPS analog correlations.
Meanwhile, lee troughing continues to deepen over eastern CO, which is allowing for some light return flow. By Sat afternoon the upper low is expected to be approaching the Arklatex region as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and will eventually move into the Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 40s. With mid and upper level ridging overhead, no precipitation is forecast throughout the period, with only another round of cirrus possible overnight before clearing from west to east late tomorrow morning.
/issued 249 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019/ High pressure will continue to shift east over the next 24 hours. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. By Friday Night, an upper level low pressure system will begin to track eastward out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend.
High pressure remains positioned east of the area with lower pressure near the KS/CO state border.
Flow turns southwest into the weekend with upper trof digging off the west coast. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer across Northeast Montana through the weekend with highs ranging from the upper 30s northeast to the 50s around Winnett.
422 PM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 This will be a quiet period with a building upper level ridge over the area. Dry and slightly warmer as heights increase and full sunshine Friday. The challenges will be overnight lows in the higher valleys where they will likely dip below guidance.
An upper trough and surface front will move through the Plains tonight. While no precipitation is expected in this forecast area, low clouds and fog may develop, especially along the Prairie Coteau in the trough axis early Friday morning. Overall, though, the weather will be fairly tranquil with temperatures warming to well above freezing on Friday along and west of the Missouri River.
Dry and milder weather expected across the CWA otherwise the next couple days with an upper ridge moving slowly across the region.
More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend as a cold front moves across the region. Afternoon temperature trends are running slightly warmer than yesterday at this time with readings in the 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows are expected to be a bit cooler than last night with less cloud cover in many places, with lows in the 40s.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest at all terminals by mid day Friday. Currently, an upper trough is over the Four corners, and and dig down and pass thru the srn plains w/out much fanfare Fri.
Temperatures from Volusia to northern Osceola, will drop to the lower to mid 50s while coastal areas from the Cape to the Treasure Coast will only drop to near 60 to upper 60s. The pressure gradient will tighten on Friday across the FL peninsula as a high pressure builds to the north and a front lingers across the Bahamas and Cuba.
With winds out of the east and southeast, we will be a little warmer tonight with lows in the upper 40s across the Victoria Crossroads to near 60 degrees along the immediate coast. This increase in moisture and a weak cold front crossing the region will lead to isolated to scattered showers tonight and through the day tomorrow. Rain chances look to linger through Friday night as trailing H5 energy swings through the region as the upper level low drifts to the east- southeast.