Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
316 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The strong upper level ridge will creep ever so slowly east across Colorado through Monday. At the same time, airmass continues to warm overall with low level moisture slowly returning under the ridge. On Monday, the lower levels continue to warm and inversions/ capping will likely weaken. In addition, there is weak Q-G noted to roll over the top of the ridge in the afternoon which should also weaken the cap.
Although some locations near heavy rain may struggle to reach 80 degrees, believe that majority of area will see readings reach the lower 80s.
332 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Deep upper low slowly approaching the area. Short waves wrapping around bottom of this low creating multiple mcs with very heavy rain movg south of cwa and then newd into north central LA. Beginning Monday night, upper low begins to migrate east with lessening both moisture and lapse rates tapering off thunder as well as overall rain chances from the nw thru Tue aftn before precip comes to an end.
Upper low across northern Texas will remain nearly stationary through the taf period.
Either way, with the 700mb trough still west, can't rule out showers and isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the evening though it's possible that some areas stay completely dry.
303 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Although sfc temps are fairly uniform across E Iowa/NW Illinois, dewpoints are substantially different on either side of a cold front. Expect a quick transition from noticeable humidity to drier, refreshing air as the cold front passes through. This Evening and Tonight There is still a low threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front - mainly in the counties along and south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. Monday Back door cold front reinforces the cooler and drier air via steady NE winds.
An approaching cold front, presently over Oregon and Washington, will slowly approach the Northern Rockies through this evening.
157 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front will move south across the area today and tonight causing scattered thunderstorms.
Early this morning, a cold front was located across northern Iowa into southern MN and central Wisconsin. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s in front of the cold front.
The upper low to our west will drift east as an upper level trough digs into the region from the northwest.
Subtle troughing influence today will cause breezy to gusty afternoon winds. High pressure returns Monday and holds until a low pressure system brings cooler air and gusty winds for the end of the week. Trough axis is approaching the West Coast this morning and will swing across the Pacific Northwest through late tonight. Winds will decrease late tonight with a shift to the northwest possible across portions of the southern Great Basin as weak cold front pushes into the area before becoming more diffuse.
202 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an upper level low over extreme southwest Ontario. This low was dropping southeast and will pass across Lake Superior and eastern Wisconsin/lower Michigan overnight. This system will be weakening through the night as it begins to become absorbed into a stronger upper level low dropping south from Hudsons Bay.
Will include VCTS for diurnal thunderstorms this afternoon over most terminals, and for evening terminals along I-10, as a disturbance over the Panhandle rotates south around an upper trough over the eastern half of Texas.
In the middle to upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with streamline analysis as of 200 am, depicts a developing middle and upper cold core cyclone over the Texas Panhandle. This system is embedded within a deep trough over the Southern Plains. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm details a typically early June broad weaker surface pressure pattern in place across the entire southeast CONUS as well as Florida the Eastern Gulf and the Keys.
With plenty of moisture and an upper trough slowly digging in, will be difficult to time convection but there will be a lot of showers and thunderstorms around.
Upper ridge moving slowly east into the western Dakotas, allowing WAA into the region along with ample sunshine. Ridge slowly builds into the Northern Plains tonight as a vigorous S/WV upper level trough/closed low rotates northeast out of the Pacific NW into southern Alberta. Trough of low pressure/frontal boundary develops as a result tonight into eastern MT with increasing southeasterly return flow over the western Dakotas. Showers/thunderstorm chances move east with the trough Monday night into central ND.
/Issued 441 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ The weak and broad upper level trof of low pressure which has affected our fcst area the past few days will continue moving further south and east away from the region today. Have continued with slight chc to chance pops across central and eastern sections with the highest values over the east and used areal qualifier wording.
The eastern influence of an upper low over Oklahoma will once again be the catalyst for more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show modest omega in the lower to mid levels, skinny CAPE, and a moist vertical profile. Still, expect the highest coverage of storms to be located along and south of Interstate 70. This area should also see cooler high temperatures with the additional cloud cover, with the warmest readings occurring near the Iowa border. Cooler and drier air will advect into the area upon the frontal passage.
This increase in convective coverage and the overnight ongoing convection is due to the presence of our warm, moist airmass but also of the positioning of the upper trough just to our west over Texas. Highs today, thanks to cloud cover and rain, will only reach the lower 80s or upper 70s, similar to previous days. Another mild night will be in store with lows bottoming out in the lower 70s.
Temps will fall back into the low/mid 40s, except around 50F south central. Will be a cooler day with north winds off Lake Superior and h85 thermal trough overhead.
1046 AM PDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Showers will continue today across southeastern Washington and north Idaho as an upper level trough heads into the region. Dry and warmer weather will arrive for the first half of the work week, followed by more unsettled and much cooler weather by the end of the week. The lower atmosphere is stabilizing under this band with rain totals from 5 am-8 am ranging from.
123 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather through today. Low pressure moves east from the Great Lakes to the northeast states tonight into Monday. pushing a slow moving cold front across the region by Monday night.
Thinking is as the upper low moves off over Lake Superior most clouds over wrn Ontario will move out as well, however with cyclonic flow over ern zones still at 00Z. Since most of the high resolution guidance shows the showers developing just east of the FA, will stick with that route for now. Monday continues to look similar or a tad cooler than today, but still above normal for early June.
1216 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 850 mb trough still slowly drifting southward tonight. Another very warm day as high pressure drifts across the region.
305 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Thunderstorms have been slower to develop this afternoon due to weaker forcing under the ridge. Should be another mild night across the area with most locations in the mountains staying above freezing. This will allow the snow melt to continue across the high country resulting in continued rises along the rivers.
Developing upper low over the southern Plains is allowing southerly flow in a deeper layer into the Ohio Valley overnight. Likely/categorical POPs tonight as the region is caught in a squeeze play between the southern stream closed low, and a cold front dropping in from the Great Lakes. Will continue rain chances on Monday with the cold front pushing through, with heavy rain remaining the primary hazard.
Deep moisture will continue to advect from the Gulf of Mexico northward over the region through the near term ahead of an upper level trough digging south-southeast from the southern plains to the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A southerly surface wind will also persist as a ridge of high pressure remains from the western Atlantic, across the Florida peninsula, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
A strong cold front will sweep eastward across SE Idaho with gusty winds and a quick temperature drop during the early morning hours.
1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 High pressure remains in control today bringing a very similar day to what we saw yesterday. Went ahead and kept PoPs in for the highest terrain for the Flat Tops, West Elks, and San Juans for this afternoon and evening for very isolated showers and storm. On Monday, the high pressure ridge axis will shift to our east as a trough centered over the Montana/Canadian border drifts eastward. The effects of this trough look to stay over Wyoming, bringing some strong storms there, though we'll see a slight uptick in convection especially up north.
319 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Scattered showers/thunderstorms will gradually come to an end this evening from north to south with loss of daytime heating, and as the upper low begins to exit to the east/southeast.
A weak weather disturbance will bring a cold front through northern Utah this evening through Monday morning. High pressure will return for much of the remainder of the week.
222 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A band of showers and thunderstorms has developed near the I-70 corridor this afternoon in response to a weak vorticity lobe to the north of a closed low over Oklahoma. The closed low to the south will accelerate southeastward tonight and Monday and allow height rises to build in from the west.
An area of low pressure will form over North Carolina Monday afternoon and track out to sea Monday evening.
1117 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 18Z TAF issuance Expect southwest to west winds this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front expected to arrive tonight.
337 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Strong cold front was located across western Osage county and extended southwest to near OKC at 3 pm. Front will eventually overtake dry line and sweep through southeast OK and west central AR before 06z, with gusty north winds ushering in much cooler air after record highs in some places this afternoon. This will bring a few more dry cold fronts south during the upcoming week, though the brunt of the coldest air does figure to remain to our northeast, with only a couple of glancing blows of Arctic air.
Will keep the High Wind Warning going a while longer as we are close in spots. Overnight water vapor imagery showed a compact but intense upper level low pressure system tracking east across central WY. Surface cold front which moved through the CWFA was located from eastern SD through western NE and central CO. 00Z short range model/ensemble solutions are in good agreement with the progressive nature of the WY upper level low today.
Rain will change over to snow as the cold front passes, with a narrow band of heavy snow with very low visibility. Temperatures will be near the freezing mark which could hold back accumulations slightly, but falling temperatures overnight into Tuesday will freeze any untreated surfaces.
Much of the reason for the low cloud development is the southerly flow that is bringing the moisture further north into the area. The cold front will push toward the area through the night and be on our doorstep by sunrise Tuesday. The weather pattern will be in transition as a large and nearly stationary longwave trough becomes carved out over Eastern North America this week. As this occurs, a strong cold front will move through the forecast area on Tuesday with widespread rain and maybe a few embedded thunderstorms.
Have sent out a quick update to increase chances for freezing rain over the lower James River Valley. Starting to get some freezing rain at Jamestown and have added a period of freezing rain in the James River Valley this morning. As the main low/trough shifts through southern ND and northern SD today, large scale ascent will increase and eventually overlap a strengthening low level frontogenesis field mainly across the James River Valley.
At the surface, low pressure over Minnesota and high pressure across the Rockies is creating a tight pressure gradient across the CWA resulting in northwest winds at speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 55 to 60 mph. Additional snowfall for the week at this time looks to be 4 to 8 inches for the higher hills.
1145 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Water vapor imagery early today indicated an upper trough ejecting across the central Rockies. Will have to watch for the potential for a line of showers or low-topped storms to form later in the afternoon along the cold front as it sweeps eastward, especially across western Wisconsin. Strong low-level cold advection will quickly develop behind the cold front late today and this evening. There's good agreement in the general pattern evolution through the week into the weekend with a cold northwest flow pattern across the area in between an amplified western CONUS ridge and the eastern trough.
Still some subtle timing differences with an approaching cold front.
309 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 /Through Tonight/ A cold front that extended southeast of a Kansas City, MO to Ponca City, OK to Amarillo line as of 3 PM will continue to move southeast through tonight. The front will have cleared the entire forecast area by Tuesday morning, subjecting the region to much cooler, drier and windy conditions.
1136 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Dry weather and a warm afternoon continue today behind departing high pressure. A cold front will bring rain late tonight and Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of the approaching pattern-changing cold front will provide high cloudiness of varying thickness today. Low pressure will become vertically stacked as it rides across the western Great Lakes and into Ontario. The cold front is still progged to cross the area on Tuesday.
Expect the clouds to gradually dissipate this evening as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front. This inversion will keep shower activity mainly confined to near the surface cold front, so any rainfall overnight will be confined to the far northwest counties. The weather pattern will be in transition as a large and nearly stationary longwave trough becomes carved out over Eastern North America this week. As this occurs, a strong cold front will move through the forecast area on Tuesday with widespread rain and maybe a few embedded thunderstorms.
354 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Tonight through Tuesday: A cold front begins to approach the area this evening and move into the delta very early on Tuesday.
A relatively dry period can be expected through late Tuesday afternoon as a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves eastward across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Although a strong westerly flow aloft will prevail across southwest and south central Kansas, much drier air in the lower/mid levels will hold off any chances for precip during the period.
Cold temperatures with clearing skies tonight along with some patchy freezing fog.
357 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Latest surface analysis showed the ridge axis along the Mid- Atlantic States extending southwest to northeast Gulf. Upper air analysis showed a weak short wave over the Lower Mississippi Valley, a stronger wave was approaching Minnesota and Iowa and a trailing trough axis to Nevada. Strong upper level winds on the back side of the wave will help deepen the wave into the closed low north of the Great Lakes. These backside winds will also drive the trailing trough axis south on Tuesday.
106 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore late today.
224 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Mean layer ridge axis over the area will slowly shift eastward. Above normal temperatures will prevail with max temps on Tuesday a good 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today. An inverted coastal trough will develop tonight with a few coastal showers possible.
/issued 929 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017/ High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing rain-free conditions and east-northeast winds.
Southerly winds will remain gusty this evening ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front. The 0-6km shear and mid level lapse rates are favorable and the surface dew points are likely to sneak into the low/mid 50s. The cold front will then swing through later this evening and bring an end to the shra/tsra.
Little change for this time frame with deep layered ridging lying nearby resulting in limited moisture to below 850 mb. Temperatures will be slightly above normal with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows generally in the mid 70s.
1043 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Warm and breezy conditions to continue across the area into the afternoon ahead of approaching cold front currently moving through central sections of Kansas.
Strong cold front to enter se OK by late this evening with more active tstms possible embedded in larger scale rainfall with front. This front will lose some forward momentum as it reaches the base of the upper trough, somewhere near the southern edge of the cwa.
Freezing low temperatures are expected across much of the region through Tuesday night.
High pressure amplifies over the region this week bringing inversions, cold nights, light winds, and reduced air quality for valleys. Gusty east winds continue across the Sierra ridgetops and west slopes into Tuesday morning. Winds across the Sierra will peak this evening with ridge wind gusts between 60 to 80 mph expected from Lake Tahoe southward to Mono County. Thereafter, we will enter a prolonged period of high pressure as an upper level ridge intensifies over California and Nevada.
Conditions should dry out some for the weekend as the west coast ridge slides eastward some. The approaching ridge should also bring warmer temps into the region with highs climbing into the lower 30s, in western MN, to the 40s, west of the Missouri River.
Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the eastern Pacific today.
MVFR cigs to scatter out across the ERN OK sites this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. /Issued 1043 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/ Warm and breezy conditions to continue across the area into the afternoon ahead of approaching cold front currently moving through central sections of Kansas.
A cold front will move into the delta overnight along with heavier showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Expect these light showers to continue to move across the area through the afternoon hours and evening before the cold front moves into the delta overnight. Updated the forecast to account for these showers and also updated temps to better reflect the slightly cooler conditions. Breezy south-southeast winds today in advance of an approaching cold front. There will be a slight chance for showers or an isolated thunderstorm through midnight tonight, and then rain chances will quickly increase for the northwestern half of the forecast area as the approaching cold front moves in.
Upper trough passing over Colorado this morning. Westerly winds have increased ahead of the cold front now entering southern Wyoming. Little change in the weather pattern over North America for the upcoming weak with a large upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast and an upper level low over the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay.
The cold front associated with the Mid America upper trough will be moving through the forecast area on Tuesday spreading showers from west to east through the day. Tuesday highs will be a few degrees cooler than the fine day we experienced today, however maxes will still be several degrees above normal.
Winds will be gusty out of the southwest this afternoon, before diminishing ahead of a cold front that will arrive tonight. The low clouds will break up early this afternoon, and then mainly VFR through tonight. A cold front will move south across the area tonight, with gusty north winds behind the front. For tonight, the weather will be a little more active as a cold front moves south across the area, around the I-20 corridor by 03Z, along a San Angelo to Brownwood line by 06Z and south of the I-10 corridor or by 11Z. Expect gusty north winds behind the front and much cooler temperatures. Also, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible east of a Brownwood to Junction line due to weak mid to upper level ascent and the cold front.
Unfortunately, this will come to an end overnight as a strong cold front backdoors into the region, courtesy of an upper trough currently moving thru the upper midwest as per WV imagery.
Snowfall may favor the lower end of a 1 to 4 range except for perhaps over the Glacial Lakes/Sisseton Hills area where isolated higher amounts remain possible. Currently they vary between 20s where the clouds have failed to generate, to low 40s in the Watertown area, but as the winds increase and we get mixing/cold advection, they should stall in the low 30s (generally below freezing). Suspect 1-3 won't cut it, but the higher amounts may - so will leave the headlines in place which matches that line of thinking. Upper low pressure troughing remains over much of the central and eastern U.
940 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2017 Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest today and persist through the week.
The weather regime at tys and tri will be much better with little chance for a ceiling forming below ten thousand feet until about 10z at tys, and not until 16z at tri due to a warming and drying southerly flow across the higher terrain east of the Great Valley.
1033 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2017 Overnight water vapor imagery showed a compact but intense upper level low pressure system tracking east across central WY. Surface cold front which moved through the CWFA was located from eastern SD through western NE and central CO. 00Z short range model/ensemble solutions are in good agreement with the progressive nature of the WY upper level low today.
Cold front will move across the area today with winds shifting towards the W/SW ahead of the front then to the NW/N behind the front. A wind shift from the north/northwest, due to a cold front, will first impact GAG/WWR around 18Z. The cold front will move into central OK around 22-23Z. The cold front is currently in northwest Kansas and will move into the area a little before noon.
327 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Main concern this afternoon involves the well advertised cold front that continues moving through the area, and the associated severe threat from thunderstorms now forming along the boundary. The one caveat seen right now is evident on the special SGF sounding which shows a decent cap remaining in place, however deep layer lifting should increase as the afternoon hours continue on as the upper trough approaches from the west. The aforementioned front however will mark the end of above normal temps for the foreseeable future, as Tuesday's high temps will only warm into the lower to middle 40s.
Isolated showers will continue in the higher terrain along the ID/NV border due to upslope flow. Northerly flow aloft will continue through tonight before becoming northwest tomorrow as a strong upper level ridge develops just off the coast of the PacNW. precipitation will end for the foreseeable future as the dryness of the ridge takes hold. Fog is possible tonight in the usual valleys, mainly in the mountains, but also in the Lower Treasure Valley, in northern Harney County, and on the Camas Prairie.
1253 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017 Early this afternoon, a deep surface cyclone was over southern MN with a trailing cold front extending south into the southern Plains, still well to our west. Focus for convection tonight will be along the aforementioned cold front, that will move across the area. Even with a decent low level jet, the low level lapse rates are not conducive to downward momentum.