Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A BIT AND EXPECT HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/ A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
IT'S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH. WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
WHILE ANOTHER ROUND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. HIGHS HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. EXPECT DRY WX FRI NIGHT AS THE SFC/850MB BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH LEE TROUGHING AND SFC-850MB WAA EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FEEL THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY SAT INTO SAT EVENING AS BETTER FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO KS LATER SAT NIGHT. LOW POPS FOR SUN WILL INCREASE BY MON AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SO EXPECT BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.
Warm front or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south. Weak high pressure building in from WI into IA will help shield the eastern CWA from the majority of the convection.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
Breezes will be kicking up as weather systems move across the strong upper level ridge.
WHICH ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO FORECAST IN JULY AS THEY RUN INTO THE UPPER RIDGE.
WITH A SMALL SLIVER OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN THE HIGHER SLIGHT RISK AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
However, there will be a surface cold front coming in from the northwest.
A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY AND MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IN CONTINUES WESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES INCLUDE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER SMALLER ONE OFF THE WESTERN CUBAN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THEM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR LAS VEGAS BY MORNING. WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OF MAYBE LESS COVERAGE BUT BURLIER STORMS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER AND A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM TO SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PIEDMONT - BETWEEN 69 AND 73 DEGREES. WHILE A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 50S.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE BECOMES DIRTY. AS A WEAK WAVE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT SOME.
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER OF UTAH RESULTING FROM AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW GRADUALLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
Expect clouds to linger and shift east today, but eventually the increased high pressure aloft will win out as it approaches from the west tonight.
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
342 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. A WARMED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ADVANCE OF A WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES TODAY.
Overall pattern through Wednesday is marked by ridging at the surface and aloft, which will keep us warm and dry.
Winds will generally be from the southeast at the surface due to an area of low pressure located over eastern Colorado. An upper level low moves into the Southern rockies tonight.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BUT PICKING UP AGAIN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WRAPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE LOW WITH 1 INCH VALUES AVAILABLE THERE. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON AN ENHANCED SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. INFLUENCES OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WOBBLES THROUGH. THIS LOW IS GOING TO FINALLY LOSE ANY LAST VESTIGES OF HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT LATER TODAY AND WILL THEN RESPOND TO MEAN FLOW INFLUENCES BELOW 40N. WHICH MEANS IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL AND SAG DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AS THE AREA REMAINS DISPLACED FROM ANY NOTABLE WEATHER MAKERS IN THE CONTINUED BLOCKING REGIME.
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM TO SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PIEDMONT - BETWEEN 69 AND 73 DEGREES. WHILE A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 50S.
This will be thanks to upper level ridging strengthening across the area in response to a upper level trough digging into the southwestern CONUS. Continued upper level ridging over the region coupled with the afternoon sun should help temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s.
BY WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SOUTH FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIG WARMUP. GIVEN RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES. PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
TEMPS UNDER THIS HIGH THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR FROST WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH WITH MID 30S ELSEWHERE. AND COULD EVEN BE A BIT COOLER IF WE CLEAR OUT TOTALLY.
1016 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 Quieter weather is expected through Tuesday, with mostly clear skies as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge weakens mid week with a chance of light rain entering the region. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: High pressure will keep VFR conditions over aviation area. Near 00Z Wednesday the high level cirrus clouds will start to thicken as they continue to invades the sky from the west and a weak surface trof may allow winds to shift to the southwest in the afternoon.
The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front across north-central FL, with higher pressure to the northwest. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a ridge beginning to take shape over the Southeast, as the anomalous deep layer low pressure system that affected our weather the past several days finally lifts northeastward over the western Atlantic. The 8 pm EDT KTAE sounding showed a pronounced warm nose above the moist boundary layer, as warming, drying air descended on the flank of the departing upper level low. However, the saturated portion of the boundary layer was more shallow than 24 hours ago, and the GFS forecasts drying later today along the low-level isentropic surfaces.
1213 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 Several closed upper lows in the overall upper level pattern. We have had a rough go in trying to clear things out today and it has kept temperatures in the low to mid 60s over the western half of the CWA. Upper ridging within the southern stream will build into the area on Tuesday and will probably see more breaking up of the cloud cover than we did today, which should result in temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s across the area. Ridge will remain in place across the area on Wednesday, with temperatures rising back into the upper 70s for most locations.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS BULLISH WITH CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING. SO WILL BANK ON THE STRONGER SUNSHINE TO STILL DO IT/S JOB WITH MIXING OUT THE LOW STUFF. COOLER EAST/WARMER WEST.
CLOUD COVER IS PROG TO BE THINNER TODAY OWING TO LOCATION OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
353 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 THE 08Z MSL PLOT SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD BAND OF LIQUID CLOUDS FROM THE PINE RIDGE AREA TO NORTH PLATTE. RETURN FLOW AS THE COLORADO LOW LIFTS NORTH GENERATES A MOISTURE TRAJECTORY ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS PAINT A CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE IT IS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA.
503 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 CURRENTLY - A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD. A LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR IS PROVIDING AN EFFECTIVE LIMIT TO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS ARE STEADILY TRENDING DOWNWARDS AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. FORECAST - OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD AND THE TRAILING TROUGH DISSIPATES. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
251 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AND REACH SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
311 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
This will place the Ohio Valley within general ridging aloft through the short term period bringing seasonably warm and tranquil conditions. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will dip into the 50s and lower 60s, with some additional low-level cloud cover helping to keep readings warmer north of I-64.
624 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
258 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS MORNING. AS WE REMAIN CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER TROF TO OUR E AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER AZ TO OUR W. AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
457 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 (Today and Tonight) Upper ridge will build over the forecast area through tonight with mostly clear skies, light winds and warmer temperatures.
222 AM MST TUE OCT 6 2015 THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
348 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 An upper low can be seen on IR this morning over Srn CA.
114 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WX PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS COURTESY OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH- ERN MEXICO TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND. WHEN MODELS THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST. THIS SHIFT SHOULD ALL- OW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SE TX BY THE WEEK END. 41 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
300 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO ARIZONA. HGTS WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM YDYS READINGS BUT WILL STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
AND THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WINDS SET UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS REVEAL THE COMPACT UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPORADIC SHOWERS OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION. WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF A STOUT UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT BOUTS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD AND NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
The slow warming trend continues today with afternoon highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This should lead to highs in the 70s across most of the area, although a few sites in southeastern MO and/or southwestern IL could reach the lower 80s depending on how quickly the clouds clear out.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS STAYING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOVING DESERT SW UPPER LOW SOUTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
1236 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE UP NORTH WHERE A COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME NOTABLE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE RIDGING WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BRINGING A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO OUR REGION.
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS AN 80 KT JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH TODAY AND IT EXPECTED TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO SRN CO. IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AT THE MOMENT THE WILL CONTINUE ITS LUMBERING SELY TREK ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA. MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S). AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
629 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. A WARMED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ADVANCE OF A WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES TODAY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 3AM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA TODAY.
424 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY TAKES AIM AT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA IN THE COMING DAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE EAST KENTUCKY AREA. THE SAME SEEMS TO BE TRUE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND A LACK OF A GRADIENT WILL MEAN FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
303 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TODAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD DECK.
345 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW. AND RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES.
330 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 High pressure builds across the region this week with temperatures returning to above average. Dry and mild weather today into mid-week with a gradual warming trend as high pressure builds over the area.
137 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
700 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE INTACT. WE EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
244 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ANY CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE FLATTER ELEMENTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SPRINKLES OR VIRGA OVER VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER MOVING INTO MID WEEK.
355 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HELPING IT PROGRESS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY HELPING TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER FIFTIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER SIXTIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PARK FALLS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN A MILD AND DRY WEEKEND.
quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud deck. the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday. Once the high slides further east. and a gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front.
203 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. AS A MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE ANY AREAS OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE ABOVE MENTION DECREASING IN CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS FIELD TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. A NEAR CALM SURFACE WIND REGIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
High pressure over the region will begin to move off to the east today allowing temperatures to warm nicely into the mid 60s and 70s in most locations.
138 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.