Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM WEST TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY TO THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
306 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
521 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 254 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WHILE A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE WEST COAST.
602 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC DRAGGED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE'LL SEE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS. WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
436 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. LOW TO MID 30 DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENTILE.
WITH THE NAM AND GFS MUCH COOLER BUT STILL QUITE MILD. FELT THAT BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLENDED TEMPERATURES WERE BEST WHICH WERE COOLER THEN NON BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES.
1019 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
645 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY.
302 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANAYSINS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
1027 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 CURRENTLY - A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FLORIDA. SHORT TERM UPDATE - SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE IS ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER HIGH CELL MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
556 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AT 08Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WAS WORKING TO ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER AND ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.
525 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW TEENS AND LOW 20S.
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FLURRIES SHOULD END QUICKLY HOWEVER AS THE FLOW OVER THE LAKE BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE HIGH NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AT 08Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WAS WORKING TO ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER AND ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.
752 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 12K FEET AND MAY EVEN INCREASE TO ABOVE 13K FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NEAR A WEAK UPPER WAVE. AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IL, THEN LOWER THEM TO THE LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND BUMP THEM BACK UP FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK ARE SECONDARY CONCERNS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE IGNITING WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE HIGHS PLAINS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND TRACK INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
912 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM WYOMING INTO EASTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE ON ITS WEST SIDE CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL MONTANA.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO PULSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH AN AIRMASS THAT CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH FILTERED CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES NORTHEAST. ALBEIT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
1138 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AVIATION A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND THE AREA AND WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 83 67 86 / 40 50 30 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 83 65 84 / 40 50 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 82 66 83 / 40 50 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 81 63 83 / 40 50 30 60.
ON SUNDAY WE'LL ACTUALLY SEE RIDGING DEVELOPING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THAT MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKE WE'RE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED OUT TO THE EAST INTO NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA AS THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER JET PUNCH INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
728 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
914 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 CORRECTED TIME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY.
545 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
935 PM PDT Sat May 16 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers or thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Higher resolution WRF QPF suggests some showers will linger mainly over Shasta Co until around 10z in deference to the weak cyclonic flow from the the nearby Ern Pac trof off the W Coast. Slight cooling is expected over the CWA on Sun as max temperatures in the valley in the mid to upper 70s on Sat will be slightly cooler on Sun due to the synoptic cooling from the upper trof dropping Swd along the coast.
937 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
SINCE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW.
/ISSUED 725 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PROVEN TO LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TO THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE HIGH.
100 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WRAPS UP AND SHIFTS EASTWARD A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WORK EAST KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK OVER THE WESTERN CWA. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DRAW UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ID WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LOW IN EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.
735 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG MOMENTUM FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS TRANSFERRED TOWARD THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. BEHIND BOUNDARY ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN AS LOW MOVES EAST.
SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
The region will remain under southwest flow aloft through the short term period with a trough to the northwest and a ridge to the southeast. Temperatures will stay on the warmer side in the mid to upper 60s.
Additional development is expected as upper level lift associated with a powerful low ejecting northeast out of New Mexico interacts with a surface dryline/Pacific cold front moving into our area this evening.
SOMEWHAT IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION DURING THE SHORT-TERM(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AS CLOSED UPPER LOW EXITS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES. PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE COMPLEX UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. EXPECT -SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
EAST TX AND LA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. ALOFT RIDGING IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. OCCASIONALLY SHORT WAVES ARE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PAST NIGHT.
/ISSUED 302 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ RIBBON OF MOISTURE AT H7, DELIVERED BY ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE PERSISTENT NEARBY MID LEVEL RIDGE, HAS LED TO PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. SPC PWAT ANALYSIS IN THE LOWEST 400MB SHOWS ABOUT 1.
1031 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
1033 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AND HAVE IT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TREND FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS UNTIL UPPER LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO THE PLAINS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP POTENTIAL DOWN FROM SW TO NE TO COINCIDE WITH SAID MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW TO OUR SW. SO PLAN FOR ONLY MORNING MENTION OF PRECIP BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS SHIFT IN H5 RIDGE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE CWA A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE U60S NORTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
742 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015 UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS SLIPPING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW JUST MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY WITH A BIT DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A BIT WARMER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM THE TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME SNOW BEGINS TO BE SEEN. FLOW OVER THE WARM FRONT WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOBRIDGE NORTH TO NEAR MINOT AND NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST AND SPREADS A LARGE AREA OF THE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE AND ESPECIALLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL TRACK ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE PACIFIC IN NATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
723 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL WITH THE RIDGING.
/ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG MOMENTUM FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS TRANSFERRED TOWARD THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE CASCADES. WITH THE SE 700 MB FLOW IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DECAYING CELLS COULD DRIFT WEST OVER THE LOWLANDS.
CONVECTION FOR THE DAY HAS DISSIPATED BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY MOVE NORTH OVER THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND AFFECT HBG. MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROF IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST.
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AVIATION A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND THE AREA AND WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE LOWER 80S. 5C/KM AND RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH SUNDAY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NEAR A WEAK UPPER WAVE. AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IL, THEN LOWER THEM TO THE LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND BUMP THEM BACK UP FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SRLY WINDS ANTICIPATED AS THE AREA LIES WITHIN A TIGHT GRADIENT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EAST TX AND LA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. ALOFT RIDGING IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. OCCASIONALLY SHORT WAVES ARE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PAST NIGHT.
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MEANDER TO THE E/SE. LITTLE IF ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE MID LVL ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND COLLAPSES THE MID LVL STEERING FLOW. BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO DVLP WITHOUT MESO SCALE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE GIVEN THE LOW ENERGY AIRMASS.
DEEPENING LEE TROF WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/ SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG MOMENTUM FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS TRANSFERRED TOWARD THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S COAST. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS SOUTH.
924 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUING THE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AS THE LOWER PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CORE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS PRODUCED A DRY SLOT INTO SE MONTANA WHILE COPIOUS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MONTANA. THIS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP AROUND INTO OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS PROVEN TO LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL TO THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE HIGH.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL SOUTH OF CWA BORDER. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED OUT TO THE EAST INTO NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA AS THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER JET PUNCH INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
Larger scale upper trof makes a quick exit to the northeast on Sunday morning, with areas drying out west to east through sunrise. Westerly flow behind the wave actually brings a nose of warmer air in aloft and boosts high temperatures on Sunday from the upper 70s to middle 80s. As the upper trough lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes region, a cold front surges southeast through the CWA Sunday evening.
1046 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.
513 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
KCYS PROFILER INDICATED 55 KT AT THE LOWEST GATE EARLIER TONIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE FCST AREA WILL DECREASE BY 12Z. 987 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND DROP SOUTH INTO WRN NEB BY FRIDAY MORNING.
843 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND THE LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY AND RISE BY MID/LATE MORNING. WITH SFC RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
619 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS THE RAIN RISK AS THE LATEST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. O7Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS FROM ND ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN SO SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY REMAINS POSSIBLE DESPITE ALL THE CLOUDS. SYSTEM MOVES OUT TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION. FIRST SIGNIFICANT CLOSED CIRCULATION SPINNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CUTTING UNDER IT AND DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE XPCTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC. WHERE THE GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING TO THE NE INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP MORE THAN LIKELY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL/BULK SHEAR IN PLACE.
753 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TX AND THE GULF OF MEX THROUGHOUT TODAY AND FRI. THE NAM CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER VERSUS THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI.
342 AM MST THU DEC 10 2015 CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. TRAILING SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A BROADENING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AND EAST OF IOWA AFTER 21Z. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE DECIDEDLY WARMER WITH THE OVERALL SOLUTIONS AT 00Z AS GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND EURO COMING IN SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OFF.
554 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.