Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level ridge that's been in place across the region the last few days will break down through today as an upper level trough amplifies across the southern US. Compared to recent days, shower and thunderstorm coverage is anticipated to be greater in the presence of much better deep-layer moisture and the upper level support from the amplifying trough. High temperatures will be a degree or two cooler this afternoon with the increased rain chances and in the lower 90s.
543 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Hot & dry conditions will persist today beneath strong upper-level ridging characterized by H5 heights in excess of 595 dam. The main ridge axis should remain to the south and west of the CWA, helping promote at least isolated shower & thunderstorm potential w/ quite a few disturbances traversing the flow aloft. Maintained slight chance PoPs across the higher terrain, but kept things dry elsewhere.
1000 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week. Tonight: Lingering instability and the passage of the broad H5 trough should support at least scattered thunderstorms through the night.
An upper level trough axis extends from the eastern Great Lakes through N Illinois and E Iowa. At the surface weak ridging was noted across the region. With the lower level moisture increase and embedded vorticity shifting southward within the sagging upper trough, can't rule out a few spotty showers this afternoon possibly into the very early evening. Wouldn't totally rule out some funnel cloud potential with any shower activity with any subtle boundary and upper trough in fairly close proximity, although guidance seems to offer perhaps the better potential just to the south of our service area into central Illinois for the better 0-3km VGP and alignment with the upper trough.
552 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains to the the west of the region. An upper level trough is currently moving southeast of the ridge. Ahead of the trough a few showers and storms have developed across the eastern Missouri Ozarks early this morning.
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms have already started developing across the forecast area this afternoon thanks the influence of an upper level trough and an abundance of moisture.
The highest chances are expected over SE OK where both surface observation and vis satellite suggest enhanced convergence with cu fields developing. Late tonight, the surface front will move southwestward as a quasi cold front. The exception will be over the extreme west where a secondary perturbation within sfc upslope flow could result in additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the day but confidence is on the low side regarding this scenario.
These storms will be pretty high based and given it is so dry at the lower levels, the main impact in the vicinity of storms will be gusty outflow winds.
A longwave trough resides over New England with the base extending southwest along the eastern CONUS. Within proximity of the trough, abundant moisture is present and is supplying the necessary means for shower and thunderstorm development across the Deep South. At the same time, a weak area of low surface pressure will focus over the Lower MS Valley while a surface front extends southwest from the parent low over New England into Central AL. 86 /Updated at 0243 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/ Central Alabama will remain in the weakness in between two upper levels ridges through the upcoming week. An unsettled pattern remains in place across Central AL due to longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS.
352 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week. Lows will range from the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches.
While high pressure over the Upper Great will actually drift a little further from our region by Monday.
/issued 1013 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/ Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. An east-west upper trof axis over the Ohio River valley will drop south tonight, with a minor surface pressure trof passage resulting in a shift to northeast winds toward morning. Rain and thunder coverage should expand north with daytime heating on Monday, with the midlevel trof axis roughly oriented along the I-40 corridor by early afternoon. Over the past few days, model solutions with this upper trof have trended slightly stronger and further west, producing more an impact on Midsouth rain chances and daytime temperatures.
For tonight, a weak disturbance from the north and an approaching weak cold front will bring additional rain chances to mainly the Big Country later tonight into Monday morning. Expect another warm night, with lows in the low to mid 70s, and highs tomorrow in the lower 90s. (Monday night through next Sunday) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday evening, as a weak cold front slowly moves through West Central Texas.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains to the the west of the region. An upper level trough is currently moving southeast of the ridge. Ahead of the trough a few showers and storms have developed across the eastern Missouri Ozarks early this morning.
Southerly flow ahead of the low level circulation continues to stream deep moisture into western KY and southwestern IN. Dew point values from Jasper IN, Elizabethtown to London and westward were in the low/mid 70s with PWAT values between 1. Over northeastern KY this afternoon (East of I-65/ north of I-64) dew point values were drier in the low/mid 60s with upper 50s around Cincinnati. With highs in the mid 80s and dew point values in the low/mid 60s. Temperatures due to continued cloud cover will likely stay in the low 80s. Early week pattern will see the amplified upper ridge over the Intermountain West balanced out by a trof digging into eastern Canada.
300 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Quiet weather continues through the rest of the weekend with high pressure firmly in place over lower MI. Expect hazy skies to continue into the beginning of next work week before flow trajectories change behind a cold front. The thermal trough that has lingered over the central Great Lakes this weekend finally pushes east tonight allowing 850mb temps to climb by 2-4C.
421 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 While high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will actually drift a little further from our region by Monday.
1142 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 High pressure located over the Four Corners region for the past several days will drift westward this morning and afternoon. This wind shift on the eastern side of the high will usher in slightly drier air from the north resulting in notably less convective precipitation over western Colorado today. Triple-digit heat will be common in the lower valleys and canyons from Grand Junction west through Moab and Canyonlands. Overnight, a weak impulse rotating around the high pressure system will sustain scattered showers in the Four Corners region. The meandering high pressure system will drift slightly north and eastward on Monday. As this transition occurs, a deeper plume of monsoonal moisture will become entrained underneath the ridge sitting overhead.
This combined with subsidence in the low and mid levels is keeping PoPs slightly below climo.
RMB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today, the strong ridge of high pressure aloft is beginning now to move northward and spread more over the northern Rockies and the adjacent northern high plains.
1200 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week. Tonight: Lingering instability and the passage of the broad H5 trough should support at least scattered thunderstorms through the night.
1232 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and near-normal temperature through Monday. There could be just enough low-level instability to promote a sprinkle or two along the eastern ridges, but will omit this mention for now, and monitor. As surface ridging becomes more established tonight, a clearing sky and light wind should allow for fog development, perhaps locally dense in some valley locations. An increase in 850mb temperatures and decent mixing point to high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
1250 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Low pressure will move east across the Gulf of Maine today and tonight.
a broken set of cumulus at about 3000 feet caught up in the low level SE winds and some stratus blowing off the top of the convection in north central Kansas that's working in the opposite direction.
229 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week. Lows will range from the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches.
214 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 VFR conditions through this TAF period as a high pressure over the western Great Lakes maintains influence over the southeastern Michigan terminals. Large area of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes will produce mostly clear skies, light winds, and summertime highs in the mid to upper 80s today and Monday.
-Convection around the area will trend toward more convection south than north -The threat of strong/severe storms is quite low, while the threat of localized flooding is slightly higher The overall pattern won't change much during the period with a strong ridge aloft to our east and troughing over the NE US.
However, the large-scale 500 mb trough that extends from Indiana to northern Missouri will still exert some forcing through the night. On Monday, the aforementioned large scale 500 mb trough will move south across western KY and southeast MO.
With increased cloud cover expected tomorrow, highs will only range from the lower to mid 80s. /JNE/ Our wet pattern continues across the region early this week as the upper trough axis lingers over us.
1237 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The latest water vapor and 500-mb height analysis places high pressure over UT/CO with the ridge axis extending northeast into southern Saskatchewan.
1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain over the Rockies today and tonight. Otherwise, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, expect temperatures today to reach the lower to mid 90s for highs. For tonight, may have a weak disturbance move south into our area, on the eastern periphery of the ridge aloft.
Some high clouds will continue to pass through this afternoon with a diurnal cu field noted on satellite - this along with easterly winds should keep temperatures mostly in the low/mid 80s. Models and soundings aren't picking up on this very much, but with dew points dropping to the low 60s overnight, will need to keep an eye on this as it could allow morning lows to fall below crossover temps and thus allow for more widespread fog formation than models indicate. The upper ridge over the western US will move east over the Plains with its axis looking to settle over the area towards the end of the week.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain over the Rockies today and tonight. Otherwise, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, expect temperatures today to reach the lower to mid 90s for highs. For tonight, may have a weak disturbance move south into our area, on the eastern periphery of the ridge aloft. (Monday night through next Sunday) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday evening, as a weak cold front slowly moves through West Central Texas.
Looking at the latest data that has been doing the best today, storm activity may increase over the southwest part of the forecast area as a subtle upper level short wave trough deepens overhead. The forecast period begins tonight with with a ridge over the plains. Guidance has been trending slightly warmer for overnight lows so I rose the temperatures slightly into the mid to upper 60s for tonight. Monday, looks to bring drier conditions as the ridge over the western CONUS slowly begins moving to the east.
Upper high remains anchored over WY/UT/CO region this afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 81 68 85 69 / 60 70 50 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 82 68 85 67 / 40 60 30 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 81 67 85 67 / 40 50 30 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 64 85 63 / 30 40 20 30 10.
1104 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Current surface map places weak trof/dry line across eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming. Persistent upper level high remains across the Rockies, with large scale subsidence across the forecast area. Weak impulse over southwest Montana rides the ridge. Pattern changes little through mid-week, with amplitude of ridge/high flattening over the last half of the week.
205 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 (Issued 205 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will dominate this period.
154 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 A weak cold front slowly moves through the local area Sunday morning then settles near the Virginia North Carolina border late Sunday into Monday bringing chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
This afternoon through Monday night High pressure will continue to build over the region, with the high center moving over the northeast corner of UT through the day today. Additional smoke from the western wildfires will continue to be shunted northward, as a result of the ridge. High pressure will maintain its hold over the region Monday, with the center of the high moving over south-central WY. The shift of the high center will allow south to southwest winds to occur over the far west.
The combination of the departing upper trough, some waning isentropic ascent and the lake breeze boundary will be the contributing factors. Dry conditions will prevail this evening and tonight as high pressure settles in from the north.
1206 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Bermuda High pressure will maintain seasonably warm and humid weather with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
Increasing westerly WAA off the High Plains thermal ridge should push highs slightly warmer for Monday, reaching the upper 80s in most locales. While Monday's temperatures will be near record highs around the Duluth vicinity, the combination of our warmer climatology and a 4-5 degree gradient in the H850 temperatures south of this warm nose will mean that we will only see high temperatures readings just a hair above average for this time of year.
The subtropical ridge continues to control over Texas today. The low level flow is from the south to southeast with a warm, moist airmass in place. The low level flow will turn a bit more southerly tonight which is a little drier direction. Monday an upper level trough will dig down over the eastern half of the country and this will erode the subtropical ridge.
313 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 An upper trough is still slowly exiting to the southeast. By tomorrow, the upper trough will stall over the Tennessee Valley, continuing to keep rain out of the area through the short term. as a heat ridge continues over the Rockies and Plains.
Temperatures are varying some depending on the amount of cloud cover ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. A weak cold front was just south of the Kentucky/Tennessee border and extending west into northern Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures will remain below normal on Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
238 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level ridge building across Wyoming with very strong subsidence dominating the Nebraska panhandle. This upper level ridge will continue to dominate the area through Monday and keep us dry and warm with light winds.
1139 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Hot & dry conditions will persist today beneath strong upper-level ridging characterized by H5 heights in excess of 595 dam. The main ridge axis should remain to the south and west of the CWA, helping promote at least isolated shower & thunderstorm potential w/ quite a few disturbances traversing the flow aloft. Maintained slight chance PoPs across the higher terrain, but kept things dry elsewhere.
As we then transition into the work week, warmer and drier weather appears to be in store for the local area as the upper level ridge to our west begins to tilt and transition eastward.
A longwave trough resides over New England with the base extending southwest along the eastern CONUS. Within proximity of the trough, abundant moisture is present and is supplying the necessary means for shower and thunderstorm development across the Deep South. At the same time, a weak area of low surface pressure will focus over the Lower MS Valley while a surface front extends southwest from the parent low over New England into Central AL.
Another upper trough axis will swing southward and reinforce the unsettled weather pattern over the mid state. This secondary trough, will be accompanied by a surface boundary which will also serve as a catalyst for convection later this afternoon.
145 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 While high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will actually drift a little further from our region by Monday.
Other isolated to widely separated storms may develop over the High Plains into this evening in moist upslope flow with mainly a southward propagation beneath North-Northwesterly flow aloft. Will maintain a 15-20% chance to the west of Highway 14 with slightly higher probabilities over the High Plains.
Much of the instability in the area of ongoing convection should get tapped out by early evening at which time the focus shifts to the north/northeast with the possibility of an approaching short wave trough bringing a round of isolated to scattered convection overnight. One more upper trough during the day Monday combined with the modestly unstable and weakly-capped air mass will bring the chance for additional showers and storms mainly during the afternoon hours. With the limited potential for organized convection the lower MOS values for PoP's have been favored. We pick up this period with flow aloft beginning to turn out of the northeast, typically setting up a cooler, but drier, pattern for us.
1013 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. An east-west upper trof axis over the Ohio River valley will drop south tonight, with a minor surface pressure trof passage resulting in a shift to northeast winds toward morning. Rain and thunder coverage should expand north with daytime heating on Monday, with the midlevel trof axis roughly oriented along the I-40 corridor by early afternoon. Over the past few days, model solutions with this upper trof have trended slightly stronger and further west, producing more an impact on Midsouth rain chances and daytime temperatures.
223 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Axis of deepest moisture continues to be pushed to the south and this trend will become more pronounced after this evening as the western CONUS ridge continues to amplify, while a mid level trough drops southward along it's eastern edge. At the same time, the low level flow will break down with the more favorable regime focusing on the Arklatex overnight into Monday. The trough axis will slide to our south over the next couple of days with a surge of relatively dry air pushing into much of the area, with rain chances becoming more confined to southern areas during the week. Temperatures will start below normal but gradually trend toward more typical mid/late July conditions by the latter half of the week as upper ridge expands across the plains.
Upper levels not as supportive however with weak ridging through the evening. Not really anticipating severe weather with freezing levels around 13000 feet and a not too deep dry layer in the low levels.
SCT/WDSPD TSRA/SHRA across mainly the southern half of the forecast area to slowly shunt southward through the remainder of the afternoon hours in association with a southward progressing weak cold front.
Thunderstorms are expected over the mountains again on Monday, decreasing into midweek, before increasing again later in the week as a monsoonal flow prevails around strong high pressure over the Rocky Mountains. A weak inverted trough brought widespread showers and a few thunderstorms overnight across the region. That trough has moved on to the northwest and carried most of the showers with it. There is also a weak signal in the high resolution models of low level wind convergence in the Elsinore Convergence Zone which may trigger an isolated storm later this afternoon.
An upper level high will continue to strengthen over the area today.
Low-mid level ridge has shifted south of the area today with short wave trough moving into Ga. This trough and a southwest flow has greatly increased moisture and showers/storms over the area as the seabreezes and outflow boundaries merging inland. Numerous storms expected again on Monday as the southwest flow increases with troughing deepening over the se states.
Heading into Monday, a weak cold front will push southward into northern Minnesota and work into the CWA during the afternoon hours.
Mon PM there will be a relative minima in dewpoints across the Trans Pecos which is expected to limit SB instability, thus the lower PoPs there. Mon the mid-level trof will extend farther w with what appears to be a boundary either from convection to the n or a weak cold assocd with trof.
This switch in wind direction will allow temperatures to take a bit of a step up on Monday, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected across western into central MN. The warmer highs Monday will translate to warmer lows Monday night, which will pretty much bring to an end the threat for patchy fog.
922 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 A weak cold front stalls near the Virginia - North Carolina border tonight into Monday. An upper level trough lingers over the region through midweek.
500 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level ridge building across Wyoming with very strong subsidence dominating the Nebraska panhandle. This upper level ridge will continue to dominate the area through Monday and keep us dry and warm with light winds.
Guidance showing ridge axis nosing southwest over a good portion of the region during this time. Worse conditions probable south of the interstate, where these locales will be closest to the ridge axis. The forecast period begins tonight with with a ridge over the plains. Guidance has been trending slightly warmer for overnight lows so I rose the temperatures slightly into the mid to upper 60s for tonight. Monday, looks to bring drier conditions as the ridge over the western CONUS slowly begins moving to the east.
Otherwise, warm and dry weather typical of mid-summer will occur across interior portions of northwest California during the next seven days, while cooler and more humid conditions persist along the coast. An expansive plume of anomalously moist midlevel moisture was spreading north-northwest around an upper-level anticyclone during Sunday afternoon. However, the influence of upper troughing over the NERN PAC will likely preclude the development of intense periods of inland valley heat. Otherwise, warm, sunny, and dry conditions typical of mid-summer will occur across interior portions of northwest California during the next seven days, while periods of stratus accompanied by cooler and more humid conditions occur along the coast.
422 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The latest water vapor and 500-mb height analysis places high pressure over UT/CO with the ridge axis extending northeast into southern Saskatchewan.
1028 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extending westward across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico is producing gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes. The background ridging through a deep layer along with some inhibition building in overnight should help to keep shower activity isolated at best. Ridging across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.