Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will occur as a mid-level trough will be moving into the eastern US and the Bermuda high will retrograde east into the Atlantic. As high pressure builds over the Gulf the wind flow pattern will flip. MID-LATE WEEK: With the trough over the east coast and a stationary front over northern FL, tropical moisture will remain across South Florida through the week. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern, bringing light to moderate southeasterly winds through the weekend.
High pressure aloft and at the surface over the Gulf of Mexico and South Texas will keep conditions hot and relatively dry through the tomorrow night.
442 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 The mid-upper level reflection of an inverted trough will pass from east to west across the forecast area today. Closer to the trough axis, deeper convection has been increasing over the past few hours roughly in the vicinity of Andros Island. Once the trough axis passes just west of the Keys this evening, the depth and strength of southeast flow will peak, coinciding with a peak in Precipitable Water (PW) values. A weakness will first start to develop on Saturday in the mid- upper level reflection of the subtropical ridge to our north. This will happen due to the bridging connection between our inverted trough and a slow-moving mid-latitude trough over Georgia.
Broad, multi-centered trough over western North America through the short term.
An upper level trough over northern Utah will exit the area tonight. In the wake of this trough a more zonal flow will develop across the region through Saturday.
Expect another day of scattered storms as upper ridge holds over the area one more day. Upper trough over the Mississippi Valley begins to move east toward the western Tennessee Valley during the day today. Storms will be more numerous in the higher elevations with some storms producing locally heavy rainfall amounts. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s around Chattanooga and possibly Knoxville and Oak Ridge with heat index values mid to upper 90s. On Saturday, we will have a weak mid to upper level trough over Middle TN/northern AL, with PW values in the neighborhood of 2 inches, and plentiful CAPE. While forcing with the trough appears weak, it will only take a nudge to get storms to develop on Saturday, so the forecast of likely PoPs with an emphasis on the afternoon hours will be continued.
Expect convection to again increase with the heating under weak troughing aloft. Convection may initially wane during the eve hours, but the front that has been lingering to our north will shift southward across our region tonight and Saturday as a trough digs across Quebec.
Axis of the H5 trough sweeps toward Wyoming overnight, adding a final surge of midlevel lift to the region.
347 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Early this morning low level water vapor and profilers show mid level trough over western Missouri with a ridge across central and eastern Kansas. Convection over central and north central Nebraska was moving northeast on the west side of the ridge along the 700 mb mean flow. Thunderstorms over south central Nebraska were moving southeast along the 850 mb moisture gradient/theta-e ridge and along the MUCAPE gradient also. Other storms that had developed from Kansas City northwest to Republic county were dissipating within an area of subsidence within the mid level ridge over eastern Kansas. Thermal ridge builds into central Kansas this afternoon resulting in high temperatures reaching the lower 90s. Other storms developing across Nebraska and far northern Kansas may build south into the low level jet tonight across central into northeast Kansas.
Today we will continue to be locked into a moist southerly low level flow pattern due to high pressure to our east and low pressure in New Mexico. Otherwise, expect another warm, partly cloudy afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Tonight looks dry, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Elected to expand the flash flood watch slightly to include a few of the ridge zones, portions of which received heavy rainfall yesterday. Expect convection to again increase with the heating under weak troughing aloft. Convection may initially wane during the eve hours, but the front that has been lingering to our north will shift southward across our region tonight and Saturday as a trough digs across Quebec.
/Issued 223 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ Ridging will continue through the short term with generally dry weather expected along with persistent heat and humidity.
306 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 The midlevel Pacific trough that was responsible for our enhanced southwest wind gradient has deflected north into Wyoming early this morning. This benign weather will continue today as dry southwest flow persists aloft as eastern Utah and western Colorado remains situated between upper level troughing to the west and a ridge of high pressure to the southeast. This synoptic pattern is projected to remain in place through late this evening which means, apart from some passing mid and high level clouds and an isolated storm or two over the higher terrain, the mostly dry and seasonably warm weather will continue. The ridge will continue its slow progression westward on Saturday, tapping moisture lifting northward across Mexico and far western New Mexico as it does.
This high cloud deck will thin and move out later today as the system producing the rain to our south moves east.
A weak pressure gradient remains in place with weak ridging near central FL.
The upper trough pattern continues over the Pacific northwest today with westerly flow shifting any instability well east of the region. Although we are in a more westerly flow and remaining in a weak upper ridge pattern, height rises over the region will continue the warming trend today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 91 73 / 50 40 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 89 71 / 40 40 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 88 73 / 40 40 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 87 69 / 50 50 60 50.
Highs to range from the lower 90s across the Hill Country to 101 degrees over the southwest part of south central Texas. The area should stay rain-free for the most part with a limited window for an isolated shower or two across the Hill Country this afternoon as a weak upper level trough lingers across the Southern Plains. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge continues to build across the northern Gulf of Mexico and moving into our area the upcoming weekend.
Western Montana and central Idaho will remain under southwest flow aloft today and Saturday as a low pressure system strengthens along the Pacific Northwest coastline.
With plenty of cloud cover and expected precipitation coverage, temperatures will likely be cooler than yesterday.
801 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Mid level ridging dominates most of the region today as a short wave trough resides across north FL/south GA. The axis of Atlantic high pressure extends west. High pressure north of the waters will provide prevailing southeasterly winds.
Early this morning low level water vapor and profilers show mid level trough over western Missouri with a ridge across central and eastern Kansas. Convection over central and north central Nebraska was moving northeast on the west side of the ridge along the 700 mb mean flow. Thunderstorms over south central Nebraska were moving southeast along the 850 mb moisture gradient/theta-e ridge and along the MUCAPE gradient also. Other storms that had developed from Kansas City northwest to Republic county were dissipating within an area of subsidence within the mid level ridge over eastern Kansas. Thermal ridge builds into central Kansas this afternoon resulting in high temperatures reaching the lower 90s. Other storms developing across Nebraska and far northern Kansas may build south into the low level jet tonight across central into northeast Kansas.
605 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 WV imagery over the last 12 hours was showing little progression has occurred with a ridge situated over the eastern half of the CONUS with an upstream trough over the western half.
High temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, while lows tonight drop into the lower 70s.
Today through Tonight Upper high over the Panhandles and West Texas will keep the forecast area dry through about 18Z today. The upper high will maintain some semblance of dominance through tonight, but between the upper trough and cold front which will push slowly south into the Oklahoma Panhandle by 00Z Saturday, isolated convection will mainly affect the western and northern portions of the Panhandles by later today and tonight.
Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue across the western Gulf today. This will maintain the highest chances of rain across eastern and southern zones and lower chances to the west.
215 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Light winds and warm weather today will give way to gusty winds with choppy lake conditions and cooler temperatures for the end of the holiday weekend.
/issued 429 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ For this morning's analysis, we remain just NW of a weakness in the high pressure which covers most of the southeastern half of the CONUS. We'll see a disturbance pass to our NW across CO tomorrow afternoon as the high continues to retrograde.
As the upper ridge remains in the vicinity, but continues to shift west, some drier air will move into the region. Temperatures will once again reach into the 90s, with the warmer temperatures being in the south where mixing should be more efficient. As we get into Saturday, the ridging over the Plains will remain in place while heights begin to lower over the east coast. The disturbance that will approach the region on Saturday will be the first of a series that will approach the region through the midweek period as ridging remains in place to the west of us and troughiness continues to increase over the eastern CONUS. Better chances of rain and storms in the period will exist in the eastern portions of the region, further from the influence of the ridging.
The Saturday night through Friday period still consists primarily of a longwave trof over or just off the CONUS west coast with an upper level ridge of high pressure over this region.
Instability has waned somewhat overnight, so winds of this magnitude may not reach the ground in the lower terrain on the eastern side of state; nevertheless, 1000 to 1500 J/kg of elevated instability will be plenty to keep storms churning west I-29 through the morning hours.
This wave looks to top the upper level ridge axis as it tracks across mainly the northern portions of Minnesota and Lake Superior. In the low levels, an area of high pressure looks to be in place across southern Canada with the ridge axis extending into the Missouri River Valley. 00Z ECMWF has this low farther north with more rain over the area. For now, will go with the idea of the dry northeast flow winning out and pushing the bulk of the rain to the south with just some low chances with the short wave trough.
Well to our south, water vapor imagery showed an inverted trof extending from the Tip of Baja NE into far southern Chihuahua Mexico. The best chance for wetting rain will generally be across the higher terrain and for locales south and east of Tucson, with gusty outflow winds possible with the stronger storms.
That ridge will be short lived, however, as weak energy streams across, flattening it out, for Saturday afternoon.
It still looks like MAF will remain on the edge of the low clouds this morning so will leave mention out attm. /issued 324 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ The current upper pattern shows weak high pressure over Texas with a trough over the West Coast.
Temperatures will remain pretty close to normal today and tonight with highs in the lower 90s and lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 70s.
Mid-level high pressure will continue to be the main player keeping the mid-levels dry and squashing any convective potential. A quiet weather pattern is expected into the coming week as high pressure prevails.
At the moment, we continue to be stuck under a stacked ridge that is keeping all activity from developing. This ridging will slowly shift west over the next few days allowing a slow return to a few sh/ts to dot the landscape by week's end.
/Today through Saturday/ As upper trough scoots off to the ne, leaving behind clear skis across much of the area as cirrus thins. However, upper ridging is building along coastline that should limit the airflow. Area of convection along periphery of upper ridge will shift from Red River valley Temps will be rising into the lower, and in some cases the middle 90s durg wknd.
429 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 For this morning's analysis, we remain just NW of a weakness in the high pressure which covers most of the southeastern half of the CONUS. We'll see a disturbance pass to our NW across CO tomorrow afternoon as the high continues to retrograde.
Weakness in subtropical ridge across the area combined with heating will trigger scattered to numerous storms again this afternoon/evening.
130 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Slightly higher pressure through Saturday will create warmer weather inland and less extensive coastal clouds.
A low pressure system continues sit over the Washington and British Columbia causing southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies. The low is not anticipated to make much movement through the weekend.
On-and-off storm chances will continue through the weekend as zonal flow across the central CONUS will continue to allow weak waves to traverse the CWA, PWATs remain high and the nocturnal LLJ recurs; and really, a noticeable pattern change is not expected until the upper low currently spinning over the Pacific NW ejects eastward midweek, after which drier, less active conditions are anticipated.
Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday, putting them near normal.
But for now, while some focus for convective development exists over eastern MS this afternoon, drier air in the low levels is making it tough for getting more than isolated coverage of storms, and expect this activity to diminish quickly with sunset.
1054 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 A low to mid level cloud deck over the southeastern portion of the High Plains and adjacent Nebraska Panhandle will effectively cap the atmosphere this morning ahead of another day of isolated severe thunderstorm potential, mainly focused along the I-25 corridor and east along the I-80 corridor, though we may see thunderstorms to the north of this intersection as well. At the surface, an upslope flow has kept dewpoints in the mid-50s and as the day heats up, the low to mid level cloud deck will erode out, creating the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to initiate. With plenty of cloud cover and expected precipitation coverage, temperatures will likely be cooler than yesterday.
Temperatures tomorrow will be noticeably cooler and with time, less humid, as drier air builds in from the north. Temps near the lake should be considerably cooler than today, given brisk onshore flow.
1153 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 A low to mid level cloud deck over the southeastern portion of the High Plains and adjacent Nebraska Panhandle will effectively cap the atmosphere this morning ahead of another day of isolated severe thunderstorm potential, mainly focused along the I-25 corridor and east along the I-80 corridor, though we may see thunderstorms to the north of this intersection as well. At the surface, an upslope flow has kept dewpoints in the mid-50s and as the day heats up, the low to mid level cloud deck will erode out, creating the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to initiate. With plenty of cloud cover and expected precipitation coverage, temperatures will likely be cooler than yesterday.
The ECMWF is a little slower with the cold front passage and tries to hang up over the area during the max heating of the day.
In addition to this activity, some showers/storms may affect northern OK late this afternoon/early evening with the higher chances still late evening/overnight.
Temperatures were near 90 or in the lower 90s, with dewpoints 75-77.
358 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Rain showers associated with a weak upper level low are slowly moving out of west central Minnesota this afternoon. With cloud cover expected to remain in place through the afternoon temperatures likely won't climb much more than a few degrees into the low to mid 70s.
Latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows a more southerly flow taking hold across the area with high pressure aloft located across west Texas. The best chance for wetting rain will generally be across the higher terrain and for locales south and east of Tucson, with gusty outflow winds possible with the stronger storms.
Otherwise, new development is already occurring out west with lift from the next short wave trough coming in.
223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to extend from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will remain through the weekend. An upper ridge will remain centered over the western Gulf through tonight with a weakness aloft over the western Carolinas. Expect temperatures to peak in the lower 90s this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the lower 70s. An upper trough swings across New England on Saturday/Saturday Night with a cold front pushing into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast U.
The Flash Flood Watch continues for the ridges, and isolated issues will remain possible elsewhere into the evening hours. As low pressure moves across Quebec and high pressure starts to build into the northern Great Lakes on Saturday, the front which has been lingering north of our area will begin to push into our area.
Slightly higher pressure today and Saturday will bring warmer weather inland and less extensive coastal clouds.
323 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 A warm afternoon is underway across the region, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s and heat indices in excess of 100 degrees at some locales. Afternoon convection will again be possible tomorrow as the upper trof remains in place over the region. However, its presence will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past several days, with highs on Saturday only reaching the mid 80s across portions of west Tennessee.
An upper level low sliding southward from British Columbia will linger over the region through the weekend.
Based on proximity of mid-level theta-e ridge it is certainly possible storms could be in the CNM/HOB around 00Z, for now will be leave mention of TSRA out of forecast. It still looks like MAF will remain on the edge of the low clouds this morning so will leave mention out attm. /issued 324 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ The current upper pattern shows weak high pressure over Texas with a trough over the West Coast.
230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Hot and dry tonight through Saturday night with ridge at the surface and aloft over South Texas.
/issued 801 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019/ Mid level ridging dominates most of the region today as a short wave trough resides across north FL/south GA. The axis of Atlantic high pressure extends west. High pressure north of the waters will provide prevailing southeasterly winds.
1256 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Light winds and warm weather will give way to gusty winds with choppy lake conditions and cooler temperatures for the end of the holiday weekend.
In addition, drier northeasterly flow will be in place across the local area thanks to weak high pressure. Temps right around the seasonable normals (even a bit cooler), and with dewpoints closer to 60, a lot more comfortable. Temperatures look to stay seasonable, but the higher dewpoints/humidity (ala the past few days) looks to hold just south/west of the local area.
Broad upper level subsidence and subtle mid level ridging should diminish much of the precipitation chances across the area tonight into Saturday.
223 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be a persistent feature across the forecast area this weekend.
Temperatures will reach the lower 90s this afternoon with diurnal thunderstorms scattered about the region. Temperatures will remain pretty close to normal today and tonight with highs in the lower 90s and lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 70s.
The showers/clouds will also keep temperatures a bit cooler for today with highs now expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s south of I-94.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have warmed into the Lower to mid 90s across the region. Aloft, high pressure over the southern Mississippi River Valley is forecast to build south and westward toward our neck of the woods through the period. With high pressure at the surface building in across the Gulf expect winds to be less gusty (even less than today) on Saturday.
113 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Sunshine is starting to peak through some lingering low to mid level clouds over the southeastern portion of the High Plains and adjacent Nebraska Panhandle. At the surface, an upslope flow has kept dewpoints in the mid-50s and as the day heats up, the low to mid level cloud deck will finally erode out, creating the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to initiate. This will aid in keeping humidities relatively high with the addition of upslope flow yet again tomorrow afternoon, for another humid day Saturday, with another chance for severe thunderstorms across the High Plains tomorrow afternoon. The major difference between today and tomorrow's storms will be slightly higher PWATs and slower storm motion, which will lead to the higher probability of heavy rain with storms, leading to flash flooding concerns.
Although boundary-layer moisture remains unseasonable high, the potential for rain is very low, as high pressure aloft dominates. Lows tonight and highs tomorrow slightly warmer than usual early July temperatures still look likely. The bad news is rain chances remain very low, as high pressure aloft continues to dominate the region. The good news is models continue to indicate boundary-layer moisture will persist, and even though an 850mb thermal ridge, to our west, will expand over our counties each afternoon, this moisture will help hold afternoon highs in mainly the mid to upper 90s.
Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low centered over Arkansas this afternoon, with another upper low/wave over the Ohio/West Virginia border. Suspect that the lull in convective activity across far northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia is largely to subsidence on the backside of the WV upper low. However, tomorrow will be much the same as today and storms should fire over the higher terrain within a few hours after daybreak.
1040 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2019 The midlevel Pacific trough that was responsible for our enhanced southwest wind gradient has deflected north into Wyoming early this morning. This benign weather will continue today as dry southwest flow persists aloft as eastern Utah and western Colorado remains situated between upper level troughing to the west and a ridge of high pressure to the southeast. This synoptic pattern is projected to remain in place through late this evening which means, apart from some passing mid and high level clouds and an isolated storm or two over the higher terrain, the mostly dry and seasonably warm weather will continue. The ridge will continue its slow progression westward on Saturday, tapping moisture lifting northward across Mexico and far western New Mexico as it does.
As the week progresses, models depict a possible surface feature developing, as the aforementioned trough meanders over northern FL and the Gulf states. High pressure will allow for light to moderate southeasterly winds to continue through the weekend.
Temperatures at 20z have climbed into the low/mid 80s CWA-wide. The southward sagging boundary will result in a degree or two cooler high temps on Saturday as well.
A flat upper level ridge will remain over the Southern Plains at least into the first half of the week with subtle waves riding over the top of this ridge.
Additional thunderstorms are expected on Saturday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s; though it will be cooler near the lake.
The Subtropical Ridge builds over our area this weekend. Increasing subsidence and drying under the Ridge will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development over our area.