Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The evening forecast will be dominated by a persistent low level southerly flow into central Illinois, as a warm frontal circulation develops to our northwest, centered from across NW Missouri and into NW Illinois. There appears to be increasing evidence in the low level thermal and moisture profiles that low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle will be possible overnight tonight, as synoptic scale lift persists in the warm advection flows. Thursday night will see ongoing showers east of I-55, as a surface wave progresses to the NE along the warm front, and exits into Indiana.
It's possible some freezing drizzle is occurring there but calls to a few spotters reveal mainly snow or the precipitation was very light. However, the Minnesota North Shore can expect 3 to 6 inches, and possibly up to 8 inches in the higher terrain, because of lake enhancement and terrain effects. There is a very low risk of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in the wake of the snow late this afternoon and this evening when some drier air moves in aloft.
914 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
734 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. Temps will continue above normal, especially during the afternoon hours, where highs will be 10 degrees or so warmer than usual for early November.
Due to the rapidly dropping temperatures as a result of an arctic airmass pushed southeast by a broad synoptic trough to the north, some of the precipitation has been flurries while most of it has been drizzle. With ground temperatures above freezing, any precipitation that makes it to the ground should be liquid, and NW winds of 10-15 MPH gusting up to 20 MPH should keep black ice issues minimal. GOES E Nighttime Microphysics is showing a clearing of the low clouds over northwest MS/West TN where the drier air is mixing down to the surface. Otherwise, temperatures look on track for a quick drop below freezing around 10-11PM.
As expected, a weather system approaching the California Coast today dissipated as it moved into the persistent ridge along the West Coast. Most model guidance indicates warmer temperatures tomorrow, as much as 5-8 degrees warmer than today. For the remainder of the week the models agree that an upper level ridge will gradually strengthen along the West Coast, resulting in continued dry weather as well as warmer daytime temperatures. SFO Bridge Approach.
Further south to the I-10 corridor, temperatures were in the lower 40s to mid 40s along the coast.
Scattered snow showers across the northern portions of the area will have a diminishing trend as the upper trough axis moves east of the area over the next few hours. Any precip is unlikely to reach the ground with the low levels remaining very dry with subsidence, so will maintain the dry forecast for tonight.
We will continue to have very dry surface layer, which may be hard to get the snow flurries to the ground, but models are continuing to trend more bullish on the lower ceilings and given the trends, seems reasonable we should see flurries for most of the area. In fact, while liquid equivalent will be just a trace, its possible given the high snow ratios, we could see a very fluffy tenth or two of snowfall from these flurries.
Expect fair weather with above average temperatures through the holiday weekend as high pressure remains positioned along the west coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 20s to low 30s across most of the High Country.
1107 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Transition for this Christmas Eve as Arctic cold front continues to approach. Already seeing some convective looking snow showers forming in parts of the region as weak short waves rotate into the area within larger upper trough.
Across the lowlands, can still get some quick coatings up to an inch with these snow showers. High pressure then skirts by just to the south late today and tonight. Temperatures today will not move a hole lot, with highs in generally in the 20s and low 30s across the lowlands, and only in the teens for mountain ridges. Blended ECMWF MOS into previous forecast which resulted in a degree or two cooler for most areas.
205 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 An arctic cold front will surge offshore early today.
329 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure over Buffalo will continue to deepen and move to the northeast. Very windy and much colder conditions will follow for Monday as the low strengthens to the north of Pennsylvania, with the accompanying cold airmass staying in place through the upcoming week. The strongest wind/gusts will occur Monday morning and early aftn as a mesoscale area of 2-3 sigma 850 mb wind shifts north across the region in the wake of intensifying low pressure over New York State.
The pressure gradient will lessen overnight as low pressure moves off to the east.
1247 AM PST Mon Dec 25 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the west coast will provide a quiet and dry end to the year. A dry northwest flow aloft remains in store this week as an upper level ridge axis remains parked off the west coast. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s can be expected through the first half of the week. Fuentes The overall trend in the models this morning is for a bit stronger ridging this morning shifting the storm track more into Washington than Oregon. X Lower clouds will continue to break up early this morning with the high clouds continuing through the day.
The upper level pattern through the period will feature northwest flow over much of the country between ridging in the west and troughing in the east. At the surface, strong Arctic high pressure will ridge south from Canada, keeping temperatures on average about 10 degrees below normal late in the week, and perhaps as much as 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms by late in the weekend.
1208 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 A cold front is generating snow showers this Christmas morning. Changes for the midnight update were primarily cosmetic as light snow has transitioned to snow showers in the wake of the exiting low pressure system. These are developing with the advance of the systems cold front and will drop a quick inch of two for many locations this morning. Cold advection in the wake of that front will support additional development of showers and possible squalls, especially in the ridges and along the I 80 corridor where the Winter Weather Advisory was maintained for the morning. Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
312 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 Yesterday's frontal passage has led to a cooler and drier airmass to envelope the Four-State Region on this Christmas morning.
VFR conditions will continue through most of the night as high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front. Cold front continues to surge south into Deep South Texas with front almost through the southern part of the offshore waters.
Arctic high pressure and quite cold temperatures will be the rule this week.
Cold front will move in by noon, transition light/calm winds to NNE at around 10 KT, diminishing to 5 KT tonight. /issued 409 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017/ Short Term (Tonight-Christmas Day): Patchy early morning fog is likely on Christmas morning, mainly across interior and western areas as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will slowly pass through South Florida on Christmas Day, weakening as it does so. The weather is expected to remain quite pleasant tonight through Christmas Day, with mostly dry conditions and temperatures slightly warmer than normal.
301 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 WV imagery early this holiday morning depicts a large scale upper trof that extends across most of the Canadian provinces, with lobes of energy rotating around the low. As the reinforcing cold air advection in the low levels continues tonight, lows fall into the single digits north, with teens in our south.
330 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold upper low pressure is generating snow showers this Christmas morning in the wake of last nights frontal passage. Changes for the morning issuance were primarily cosmetic as light snow transitioned to snow showers overnight in the wake of the exiting low pressure system. These developed with the advance of the systems cold front and dropped a quick inch or two for many locations this morning. Cold advection in the wake of that front will support additional development of showers and possible squalls, especially in the ridges and along the I 80 corridor where the Winter Weather Advisory was maintained for the morning. Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
A complex aviation forecast is afoot this morning as a cold front moves across the region. Cold front approaching from the northwest will be preceded by patchy fog, then accompanied by a few showers with mainly MVFR ceilings overnight for TPA, LAL, PIE, and SRQ.
822 PM PST Sun Dec 24 2017 High pressure anchored off the West Coast will maintain fair and mild weather across the region into the New Year.
The dome of high pressure that has been ho-ho-holding in place over the area for the last week is finally beginning to lose its grip, which is allowing the front to slip southward. Along its journey, the temperature gradient will slacken and the boundary will become more diffuse as a ridge of high pressure builds into the southeast states and winds behind the boundary veer to a more northeasterly direction with time.
205 AM MST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will prevail this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the region. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s. The SW Conus remains trapped in dampened ridging between deep longwave negative height anomalies covering the eastern Conus and a southern stream cutoff cyclone south of the Baja peninsula. Somewhat thinner cirrus and slight warming in the boundary layer will likely result in afternoon readings a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.
As expected, a weather system approaching the California Coast today dissipated as it moved into the persistent ridge along the West Coast. Most model guidance indicates warmer temperatures tomorrow, as much as 5-8 degrees warmer than today. For the remainder of the week the models agree that an upper level ridge will gradually strengthen along the West Coast, resulting in continued dry weather as well as warmer daytime temperatures. But cloudcover should keep temperatures warmer which lessens the chance for fog. SFO Bridge Approach.
1114 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Mainly clear skies and cold temperatures were found across the region at 20Z with a high pressure ridge axis stretching from western Canada into the southern plains.
1015 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2017 Upper level analysis continues to show large trof over the northern CONUS with some ridging over the West Coast. At the surface, arctic high pressure in control, with next arctic front slipping south across ND.
Very temped to raise temps some thinking we may not fall much overnight, but was quite confident enough to make the change, esp given colder temps south of the cloud edge and left lows in the low to mid 20s.
Across the lowlands, can still get some quick coatings up to an inch with these snow showers. High pressure then skirts by just to the south late today and tonight. Temperatures today will not move a hole lot, with highs in generally in the 20s and low 30s across the lowlands, and only in the teens for mountain ridges. Blended ECMWF MOS into previous forecast which resulted in a degree or two cooler for most areas. High pressure builds over the Central Plains with the upper trough dominance in full swing for the eastern CONUS.
250 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure at the surface will slide south of the area today and slide into the Ohio Valley tonight. The low level flow will become southerly on the backside of the high but the gradient will be rather light much of the day. This will temper any warm up, with highs expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
Compact area of lift associated with approaching Arctic cold front will generate scattered flurries and light snow showers across the CWA the next several hours. 925H temps fall from around -12C to -15 to -20C this morning behind cold front, so not expecting much diurnal temp rise. This secondary cold front located over central MN.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and generally mild conditions through the remainder of the month. Extensive dense high clouds will continue to stream across our region overnight, but the 00Z GFS indicates that the plume of high level moisture will stretch and thin out by around 18Z Monday behind a short wave trof sliding across Utah.
129 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure over Buffalo will continue to deepen and move to the northeast. Very windy and much colder conditions will follow for Monday as the lows strengthen to the north of Pennsylvania, with the cold airmass staying in place through the upcoming week. The strongest wind/gusts will occur Monday morning and early aftn as a mesoscale area of 2-3 sigma 850 mb wind shifts north across the region in the wake of intensifying low pressure over New York State.
1100 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Canadian high pressure and dry air was moving into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this evening.
Eastern areas, the cooler airmass will be slow to move east and highs will remain in the 50s.
CLouds and snow flurries with an upper level trough will move out from west to east during the next 12 hours as gusty NW winds diminish. High pressure will move in for Christmas day with thin broken cirrus clouds.
328 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 Merry Christmas! The passage of a series of upper level lows over the Great Lakes/North East and the building of a large amplitude ridge out West will keep northwest flow aloft over the region for the foreseeable future. These warmer temps will be short lived and the first cold air intrusion occurs.
Weak short wave moving through the Ern Pac/W Coast ridge this evening bringing the clouds and sprinkles/flurries. This feature will be moving S of our CWA by Mon morning and high pressure will rebuild over the area on Christmas day. Otherwise, NW flow from the rebuilding ridge will prevail over the CWA in the short term with some passing cloudiness at times.
212 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Dry weather continues this weekend under high pressure.
1210 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 MVFR cigs will linger through mid-afternoon across E TX/N LA/extreme SW AR, S of a warm front which continues to lift N across extreme Nrn LA/Srn AR/and extreme NE TX. Sct -SHRA may develop over portions of Ncntrl LA/Scntrl AR, before more organized convection to the N over Cntrl AR gradually builds S into the region after 06Z along a cold front.
During the mid to late afternoon hours another batch of mainly mid level moisture moves into far eastern Colorado from the northwest, associated with an upper level trough centered over northern Nebraska. For tonight clouds quickly decrease from north to south through midnight with a clear sky after as the upper low and trough move toward Kansas City. Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s.
Warm air advection ahead of the system will continue over Minnesota ahead of the inverted trough. Followed the trend of the high-resolution guidance and bring slight to chance POPs into the Brainerd Lakes area later this morning. Diurnal heating will deepen the boundary layer by late morning while mid-level height rises ahead of the trough point to broad subsidence through the day. The trough and associated surface features will advance southeastward on Sunday. Subsidence moves into the Northland in the wake of the departing trough, with snow showers all but ending by mid-afternoon.
Because of significant breaks in cloud coverage across northern portions of mid state, temps have soared into the low to even mid 60s, while temps remain in the lower 50s across the east.
The focus of the short term period is on fire weather potential in the extreme western portions of the CWA, a cold front passage tomorrow morning, and potential windy conditions Sunday. Pertaining to tomorrow morning's cold front, guidance is in pretty good agreement in bringing the wind shift through the Austin area between 12-13Z.
Temperatures remain in the low 30s this afternoon, where they will likely stay owing to mostly cloudy to overcast boundary layer cloud cover. The exception is upper 30s noted downstream of the glacial ridge, providing a glimpse into the high temperature potential for this mid-March airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures around -12C. Shear max on full disk WV imagery over Nunavut is already amplifying as it is steered southeast by the longwave ridge anchored over western North America.
A developing low pressure system will will track south and east of Pennsylvania. Some clouds will also linger over the northwest mountains as we remain in the long-wave trough and occasional disturbances continue to drop southeast across the Great Lake Region. A few of the 10/12z GEFS plume members show the potential for a plowable snow in the Lower Susq Valley.
Strong high pressure aloft will develop across the interior west early in the upcoming week. The atmospheric river is punching into southern California south of the broad eastern Pacific trough this morning and into Arizona by this afternoon. Although snow amounts will probably be less than 6 inches in the higher mountains, the impacts could be felt on the higher elevation roads of SR-20, SR-14 and SR-143 if the majority of the snow comes during the night.
338 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure will build south into the Central Great Lakes Sunday and linger through the weekend.
114 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Even though high pressure is slowly pushing across central Superior and Lake MI, lake effect clouds/snow showers continue in northern MI. Broad troughiness remains across the eastern CONUS anchored by a vertically stacked low over the New Brunswick/Nova Scotia area. Cyclonic flow will continue to ease across the western Great Lakes as high pressure slowly builds into the region through Sunday. High pressure/subsidence/dry air building into the region should largely end any remaining snow showers/flurries tonight. mainly the lower to middle 30s.
As a trof passes to our north a sharp cold front will drop south and should pass thru MAF around 10Z and should make it down to the Rio Grande River by 14Z. As would be expected temps tomorrow could be 30 degrees or more cooler than today (normal is 71 for MAF) with overcast skies across the CWA.
1013 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central NE, with cold front now south and east of most of the area. Upper level analysis shows compact upper low now over far northeast WY, moving southeastward. Further south and east, areas of rain and snow are currently noted from the Philip to Pine ridge areas along band of frontogenesis behind the front. Snowfall will end from northwest to southeast across the area later this afternoon and evening as the low moves away from the region. 08z surface analysis had had low over eastern ND and southwest SD with a cold front into northwest WY. Today, upper low spins southeast across northwest SD this morning and then north central NE by this evening.
Will likely maintain POPs through Sunday night especially over eastern areas as additional showers may develop ahead of upper trough axis.
Sustained winds along the reef are 15 to 20 knots, with plenty of gusts into the lower 20s.
A developing low pressure system will will track south and east of Pennsylvania. Some clouds will also linger over the northwest mountains as we remain in the long-wave trough and occasional disturbances continue to drop southeast across the Great Lake Region. Several GEFS plume members now show the potential for a plowable snow in the Lower Susq Valley, but the amount of spread in the individual ensemble members indicates that considerable uncertainty remains.
250 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast NE, with cold front well south and east of the area. Upper level analysis shows compact upper low now over far north central NE, moving southeastward.
Cold front timing not until late in this forecast period. Surface and low level winds will shift to the south to southwest today, bringing much warmer temperatures to South Texas (upper 80s to lower 90s most areas). Throughout the period an upper level low will swing down across the Rockies and Central Plains, sending an associated cold front south.
A developing low pressure system will will track south and east of Pennsylvania. Some clouds will also linger over the northwest mountains as we remain in the long-wave trough and occasional disturbances continue to drop southeast across the Great Lake Region. A few of the 10/12z GEFS plume members show the potential for a plowable snow in the Lower Susq Valley, but this seems bullish compared to other guidance.
329 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Warm front pushing north across area has brought dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s for most of the area. This front will begin to occlude with a weak cold front near I-40, with convection deepening to our north late today.
No change to the forecast for tomorrow as a cold front and associated band of showers and thunderstorms still looks to impact the CWA.
246 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Lake effect snow showers will taper off this afternoon and tonight, as weak high pressure pushes into the region. Highest at the highest elevations and on already snow covered areas. Roads shouldn't be much affected except for any liquid on them freezing as temperatures fall back into the 20s. A ridge of high pressure at the surface with rising heights aloft will be over the area Sunday and Sunday night with dry weather. High temperatures a tad warmer but still mostly mid and upper 30s. Sunday night cooler with some clearing.
Satellite is currently showing the upper low over south central Montana with movement southeast. Models bring another round of snow showers to our far eastern areas today as the upper low moves across the area. The cold front associated with the above disturbance has exited the state and is currently across the western Dakotas.
930 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central NE, with cold front now south and east of most of the area. Upper level analysis shows compact upper low now over far northeast WY, moving southeastward. Further south and east, areas of rain and snow are currently noted from the Philip to Pine ridge areas along band of frontogenesis behind the front. Snowfall will end from northwest to southeast across the area later this afternoon and evening as the low moves away from the region. 08z surface analysis had had low over eastern ND and southwest SD with a cold front into northwest WY. Today, upper low spins southeast across northwest SD this morning and then north central NE by this evening.
Pleasant and dry weather will dominate the Northern Rockies the next several days as high pressure builds overhead. A weak disturbance will under cut the ridge of high pressure on Sunday leading to some high clouds and perhaps a few flurries over the mountains but otherwise mostly clear skies will dominate.
with cooler readings both in the far northwest counties where winds are still northeast and in the zone across north Mississippi from precipitation. Scattered showers will accompany strong low level warm advection in advance of an upper low dropping through the Missouri valley tonight. There will be some potential for cell training, but given upstream height falls, the low level front and convective focus should remain progressive. To the north, showers appear a good bet Sunday and Sunday evening around the east and north sides of the parent upper low, as it drops from central MO into middle TN.