Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak west to northwest flow aloft will persist through Tuesday due to a mid to upper level high pressure located to our west. Winds will begin to subside tonight before the arrival of the cold front tomorrow. A pre-frontal trough will make its way through Central Texas early tomorrow morning impacting the Victoria Crossroads by the early afternoon hours. The cold front is then expected to slow down and finally make its way offshore by the evening and into Tuesday night before stalling over the gulf waters. The weak cold front is not expected to provide a significant relief to the heat as temperatures will only drop about a degree tomorrow and about a degree or two tomorrow night compared to tonight.
This energy is located in the vicinity of a northward-advancing warm front. If a storm or two develops near the warm front over the next few hours, damaging winds and large hail will become a concern. Low- level SSE winds in the vicinity of the warm front are such that any storm that latches onto that environment will pose an increased tornado threat.
Temperatures will again be cool tonight with many of the valleys expected to have near or below-freezing temperatures.
Dry east/northeast flow in the low levels will push back any eastward advancement of showers that occur in areas mainly southwest of Madison Tuesday into Tuesday night.
1207 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level trough will shift east of Pennsylvania today, then a ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
The advancing cold front has moved a little faster to the south than previously expected, which will help limit the northern extent of the severe weather threat through early and mid evening. The cold front will clear the region by around midnight and bring an end to the severe storm threat. Cooler air spreads into the region behind the front and is expected to drop overnight temperatures into the lower and mid 50s. Clouds will be slow to clear tomorrow until 700 mb trough axis shifts to the east during the afternoon.
The main trough axis shifts east Tuesday, but several additional pockets of positive vorticity rotate across our area supporting scattered showers at least through Tuesday afternoon (if not Tuesday early evening). Cooler temperatures are already in place and due to evaporative processes we may see locations hover in the lower 30s with rainfall tonight (especially in our east). While ice crystals aloft would struggle to make it past the elevated warm layer, if surface temps were to cool to wet bulb temps near freezing localized pockets of freezing drizzle couldn't be ruled out in MN. Expansive and long duration troughing in the eastern North America will promote an elongated period of colder than normal temperatures over eastern North Dakota and particularly Minnesota.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east, with highs on Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 60s. At the surface, high pressure will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Along a cold front, thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east across the TAF sites beginning late afternoon and continuing across the AR sites through 03z-05z. Behind the cold front, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period, along with a period of gusty W-NW winds. A lull in convection is expected until later this afternoon, when storms are expected to develop along a cold front that will enter eastern OK at that time.
Additionally all terminal sites, with the exception of LFK, could experience VCTS conditions from 05/09Z-05/15Z as a cold front slides south across the region.
219 PM MDT Mon May 4 2020 20z surface analysis had cold front from central ND into western NE with weak low along it in central SD. A weak surface reflection expected over the SD plains in the form of a trough. Boundary layer winds expected to perk up again as trough tightens gradient and diurnal mixing peaks.
(This evening through Tuesday) As of 19Z, the prefrontal trough extended from Osage - Canadian - Beckham counties with northwesterly winds behind the axis. The cold front was located near the OK/KS border with temperatures in the 60s behind the front. Northerly winds and strong cold air advection will keep temperatures much cooler tomorrow - maximum temperatures will be in the 70s and near 80 degrees (SW Oklahoma and western north TX).
No major changes were needed for the eve update as stratocu clouds over the are diminishing with weakening flow off the Lakes Region as per building high pressure. Temperature will be quick to drop tonight under the initially clear sky, but that will eventually be retarded via increasing high cloudiness on the van of Mississippi Valley low pressure. Clouds will increase over the remainder of the PBZ forecast area on Tuesday as low pressure moves up the Ohio River Valley.
75" Rockville/Orleans/Cambridge areas. After a lull in precip, rain showers are working southeast from northern Nebraska as an upper trough translates across South Dakota/Nebraska and this next round of rain will primarly impact areas along/north of Interstate 80 prior to ending early this evening. We'll be returning to a cooler pattern during the outer periods with a few chances for showers/storms and also the potential for frost (yikes!) with cold overnight low temperatures in the 30s for some areas.
146 PM PDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across southern California this week.
Looks for showers to come to an end shortly after 00Z as upper low tracks east. overnight lows could be quite cold with freezing temperatures likely to be widespread. GFS hinting at a dry cold front moving southwest out of South Dakota.
220 PM MDT Mon May 4 2020 Lift from the short wave trough and jet tracking across the Central Rockies is over north central and northeast Colorado. Lows are expected to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s over northeast Colorado. Will issue a Frost Advisory for the far northern counties of northeast Colorado where lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected. Highs will be slight warmer Tuesday with upper 60s to lower 70s over northeast Colorado.
A stellar, multi-pronged sea breeze collision over the Everglades produced absolutely nothing early this evening, highlighting the inhibition in the lower levels.
While most of these showers should begin to fizzle out as the sun goes down, the upper low/trough should pass through the area later tonight and tomorrow triggering more rain and a few rumbles of thunder by tomorrow afternoon in the southeast corner of the CWA. Expect that the next focus will be the upper low pressure system over S.
This appears due the low level jet shifting east toward the TN River valley. To the north, scattered storms over central and northern MO should track into the Ohio River valley, where they will encounter better inflow from the low level jet. Instability and low level shear will ramp up as a warm front lifts northward towards Missouri. The tornado threat should diminish as the second round of showers moves through later tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches the area. Cooler air will move into the area as the front passes allowing for breezy conditions and high temperatures to be in the mid 70s.
620 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) As of 19Z, the prefrontal trough extended from Osage - Canadian - Beckham counties with northwesterly winds behind the axis. The cold front was located near the OK/KS border with temperatures in the 60s behind the front. Northerly winds and strong cold air advection will keep temperatures much cooler tomorrow - maximum temperatures will be in the 70s and near 80 degrees (SW Oklahoma and western north TX).
951 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Weak high pressure will pass east of the region overnight.
946 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through Tuesday.
838 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Upper level low pressure area spinning over the region was bringing moderate to heavy rain to areas east of the Missouri River this evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east, with highs on Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 60s. At the surface, high pressure will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Temps were in the 50s and 60s in the higher terrain. in the higher terrain, spotty Red Flag conditions will continue into the early evening as breezy conditions and low humidity values will continue.
708 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Dry low level conditions within prevailing northeast flow ensures clear skies across the lowest 8 kft through Tuesday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible between GTR, GWO and GLH after noon as a cold front moves into the area. A short wave will drive a cold front southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours. /15/ The cold front will continue to sag south through the region late Tuesday.
On Tuesday a weak cold front will move through the region as a mesolow lifts across the Plateau/Valley into southeast KY, thus swly winds will increase given enhanced PGFs with gusts upward of 20-25kts possible amidst a mixture of low/mid clouds. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 48 65 43 / 70 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 77 47 59 39 / 50 40 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 77 46 59 39 / 50 30 20 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 70 44 53 36 / 70 60 40 40 20.
539 PM MDT Mon May 4 2020 20z surface analysis had cold front from central ND into western NE with weak low along it in central SD. A weak surface reflection expected over the SD plains in the form of a trough. Boundary layer winds expected to perk up again as trough tightens gradient and diurnal mixing peaks.
313 PM PDT Mon May 4 2020 Very dry air and light winds across northeast California and western Nevada will allow for chilly morning temperatures Tuesday, with colder lower valleys falling into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures warm to well above average this week, peaking this weekend as high pressure strengthens overhead. This is warmer than this morning (lows into the 20s) but could still be low enough to affect sensitive plants in the colder valley locations. As a side note, this is nothing unusual for early May in the western Great Basin! Tuesday, high pressure currently overhead shifts east as a trough approaches the West Coast.
Temperature will be quick to drop tonight under the initially clear sky, but that will eventually be retarded via increasing high cloudiness on the van of Mississippi Valley low pressure. Clouds will increase over the remainder of the PBZ forecast area on Tuesday as low pressure moves up the Ohio River Valley.
A generally benign pattern remains in place per recent UA analysis and WV imagery, with weak ridging and dry air acrs the Gulf coast. 24 A midlatitude disturbance will shift east acrs the cntl CONUS tonight, lifting the low acrs TX/OK toward the Mid MS Valley. A cold front trailing behind the low will slowly sag southward toward the area tonight. Fcst soundings show a wedge of warmer air will exist around 700 MB, which should help to mitigate the potential for tstm coverage.
Seasonably cool temps are slated for much of the week, including lows in the lower to mid 30s in western Neb, favorable for patchy frost. Some gusts to 20mph may continue in north central Neb where it's closer to the upper low. With forecast low temps in the lower/mid 30s, introduced patchy frost overnight. Another impulse rounding the low is progged to cross the Sandhills later in the day. Overall moisture is limited with dew points held to the lower 30s, but the combination of increased forcing and elevated instability may support scattered showers.
Temperatures tonight should be noticeably warmer than this morning, so frost will not be a major concern, although some isolated pockets are possible in the usual colder spots. With the front progressing into a rather strong ridge and a dry air mass, it will be difficult to produce much more than light rain amounts. Wedensday will be a cooler day due to the cold air behind the front, but this will be a short lived trend.
912 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Another quiet, clear night ahead, as high pressure continues over east central Florida. Lows in the low to mid 60s, except for the upper 60s along the immediate Treasure Coast. High pressure continuing over the area.
Expect dry conditions overnight as we remain under the influence of high pressure. A short wave will drive a cold front southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours. /15/ The cold front will continue to sag south through the region late Tuesday.
There is a small chance for fog over some of the lower valleys of western Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming, but confidence is limited due to cold air advection near the surface. Looks for showers to come to an end shortly after 00Z as upper low tracks east. overnight lows could be quite cold with freezing temperatures likely to be widespread. GFS hinting at a dry cold front moving southwest out of South Dakota.
630 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, convection ongoing along a swd-movg cold front across ern OK will continue swd, and will eventually bring tstms or vcts to the terminals overnight and during Tuesday.
1103 PM MDT Mon May 4 2020 20z surface analysis had cold front from central ND into western NE with weak low along it in central SD. A weak surface reflection expected over the SD plains in the form of a trough. Boundary layer winds expected to perk up again as trough tightens gradient and diurnal mixing peaks.
A cold front will bring a chance for showers and some isolated thunderstorms from north to south across the area from late morning through the afternoon. /NF/ Expect dry conditions overnight as we remain under the influence of high pressure. A short wave will drive a cold front southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours. /15/ The cold front will continue to sag south through the region late Tuesday.
Upper level low pressure area spinning over the region was bringing moderate to heavy rain to areas east of the Missouri River this evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east, with highs on Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 60s. At the surface, high pressure will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Patchy fog in the morning will give way to a mostly sunny day with highs once again touching the low 90s across the area. This will give way to the weak cold front that is expected to approach the region from the west late Today bringing the chance for an isolated shower or two in the early evening hours. With mid level dry air in place coupled with the weak forcing from the cold front, any showers that do develop will be shortlived.
Clouds will persist today with increasing rain shower chances mainly south of PGH as low pressure moves up the Ohio River Valley.
1020 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Precipitation coverage continues to increase this evening in response to strong moisture convergence/lift associated with the southwesterly LLJ and large scale forcing attendant with an upstream short wave trof near the KS/MO border. The entire precipitation zone should shift east through the night with the migration of the short wave trof and surface cyclone, and I think will largely be over by daybreak sans some potential for lingering showers in northeast MO and west central IL on Tuesday morning. Weak ridge will build in Tuesday night.
Patchy frost is favorable across western Nebraska tonight, since low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s.
1246 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020 Dry northeast flow emitting from strong high pressure over Ontario will persist through Tuesday night, maintaining ceiling free skies below 10000 feet.
Early activity will be focused north of the warm front, with showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder most concentrated across NE TN and SW VA this morning. The weak wave of low pressure along the front will track east today, and will drag a weak cold front through our area this afternoon as a weak mid/upper level short wave approaches.
VFR should return by mid-to-late morning, possibly later at VCT, ahead of a cold front and NNE wind shift by late afternoon into the evening. Modified the high temperatures down a little bit especially across northern areas.
250 AM MDT Tue May 5 2020 A low amplitude transitory ridge will move from the Intermountain West to high plains over the next 24 to 48 hours.
221 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through Tuesday.
219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2020 The upper low that is along the MT/SK border early this morning will drift SE across NE Montana today. The low will become an open trough as it moves through the forecast area. The system moves to the east this evening and high pressure moves in with clear skies and light winds tonight.
The remainder of today will be fairly pleasant with highs in the highs generally in the mid 70s.
238 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 The short range will feature more chances for rain, and cooler than normal temperatures.
1125 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through Tuesday.
Freezing levels will be quite low and likely result in small hail with any heavier showers. JKL Trough that brought some showers to the southern half of the CWA this morning has exited to the east. This will bring some showers across our eastern zones, and there may be some rain/snow showers over the high country of the Beartooths as well from mid-level convergence.
Warmer conds expected with 60s for highs most areas. Deep upper trough over the NE Pac will eject a stronger impulse, which will time over the area Wed night into Thurs. NE Pac deep upper trough will then support downstream ridging over western NOAM the remainder of the period, while blocking flow develops over the NW Atlantic. This will set up another round of central NOAM troughing, with a cold core trough settling into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The western extent of troughing is progged to back into the region. However, cooler numbers are likely esp by Monday, given the degree of CAA supported in the ECMWF and GFS.
400 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Low pressure near Cairo, Illinois at 3 am, with a cold front through the ArkLaTex into the Texas Big Bend area. Weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry low level air from this high will also help keep any light shower activity to the south as low pressure tracks south of the Ohio River Valley. Mid/upper level cloudiness will reduce solar insolation, however, and lead to even cooler readings today with highs in the lower 50s (lower 40s along the immediate Lake Huron shoreline as the wind continues to feed onshore).
348 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf providing continued southerly winds around 10-15 mph along and south of I-10 to the coast, around 5 mph further inland. Further north, a cold front is advancing across North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma. The upper air patter today will become more northwesterly over the Gulf States as a deep layer trough over Central and Eastern Canada and U.
219 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Storms have moved off to the south and east, and some lingering convection is just off to our north with the warm front. The cold front should move through starting later this morning through the afternoon, so the chances for showers and thunderstorms will be highest from mid morning through the early afternoon.
Currently have gusts up to 45 mph today, supported by momentum transfer in a well mixed boundary layer, within the tight pressure gradient associated with the low, combined with unidirectional winds. Right now, this is right at the lower limit of a wind advisory, thus will highlight in our HWO and social media for now. Otherwise, it will be a little warmer today, highs mostly in the 60s. The next trough which is currently along the US and Canadian border will move through the area tonight.
1219 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Precipitation coverage continues to increase this evening in response to strong moisture convergence/lift associated with the southwesterly LLJ and large scale forcing attendant with an upstream short wave trof near the KS/MO border. The entire precipitation zone should shift east through the night with the migration of the short wave trof and surface cyclone, and I think will largely be over by daybreak sans some potential for lingering showers in northeast MO and west central IL on Tuesday morning. Weak ridge will build in Tuesday night.
Low pressure progressing southeast across the Mid-Missouri River Valley will support breezy/gusty northwest winds across the forecast area today.
I broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front could bring a short duration of IFR or MVFR to all terminals for a short time around 0Z and beyond. /issued 346 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020/ Weather impacts over the next 7 days will generally be on the lower end of the spectrum. An upper level analysis across the country shows a strong trough exiting the northeastern CONUS, weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and weak trough in the mid west. This mid western trough will bring a cold front to the region late tomorrow.
Until then with prolonged 700mb omega and inverted trough continuing to provide lift expecting showers to continue in the valley and eastern ND.
Low-level jet out ahead of this feature is helping to generate elevated showers and storms along the warm front. Our southern IN and northern KY counties likely will stay in the 50s and low 60s, whereas southern KY should see the lower 70s. Tonight, cold air advection behind the low will bring our temperatures down to around 40 for most locations.
A vigorous upper-trough will swing into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, forcing a cold front south through the Tennessee Valley and Deep South on Tuesday afternoon.
1115 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) As of 19Z, the prefrontal trough extended from Osage - Canadian - Beckham counties with northwesterly winds behind the axis. The cold front was located near the OK/KS border with temperatures in the 60s behind the front. Northerly winds and strong cold air advection will keep temperatures much cooler tomorrow - maximum temperatures will be in the 70s and near 80 degrees (SW Oklahoma and western north TX).
Deep shear stronger and more WSW- ENE oriented than yesterday as upper trough approaching from NW. cloud bases) will result and may limit tornadogenesis in spite of rotating mesocyclones in low-mid levels.
334 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Storms have finally scooted east of the forecast area, with a cooler (and a bit breezy) day in store.
304 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Quiet weather is expected for today and tonight as high pressure over the plains filters into the Ozarks today. High pressure will also allow winds to drop off with light northerly winds expected today and tonight. North westerly upper level flow will keep cooler weather filtering into the area from Canada through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
315 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 (Today and Tonight) As of 1 am, a cold front was moving into the I-20 corridor. With cooler air behind the front today, expect highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s. With the weak winds and clear skies tonight, there should be decent radiational cooling, resulting in lows tonight falling to the low 50s.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 48 65 43 68 / 30 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 47 59 39 65 / 60 30 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 46 59 39 66 / 60 20 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 44 53 36 62 / 70 40 40 20 10.
326 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020 Cold front has pushed through all of the forecast area this morning and continues to push to the southwest. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday and if the clouds continue to hang around, we may be even cooler than that.
Forecast soundings are very dry in the low levels (inverted-v) with dewpoints this afternoon expected to be in the 20s.