Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper trough continues to slowly amplify weak cyclogenesis across the lower TN Valley this morning which is promoting weak moisture advection northward across the southern Valley/Plateau, all beneath synoptic lift consequent of 300mb jet divergence. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 73 87 70 90 / 80 60 40 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 71 84 69 87 / 70 60 70 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 71 85 68 88 / 70 60 60 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 69 82 65 83 / 70 50 70 30 20.
Very dry air in the low levels under large-scale high pressure will allow skies to remain mostly clear tonight and through much of the day on Saturday. /issued 220 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to be extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. After holding at near to below normal levels in the wake of Hurricane Hanna, temperatures are beginning to creep into above normal levels due to the presence of the 500 mb ridge and the steady drying of previously-soaked and flooded soils from Hanna rains.
632 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The cold front pushed through western and north central Nebraska at 1 pm CT. Gusty northerly gusty winds in its wake that ushered cooler and drier air across the west. Saturday the upper ridge builds to the west of the continental divide.
558 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The weather across the area today is dominated by a warm and muggy airmass characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Today should be the last day of real summery type conditions across the area for at least a few days, due to a cold frontal boundary, which will move into and through the area over the next 24 hours.
Weakening high pressure ridge axis as it slides a bit further south/east from ECFL. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s. SSW/SW winds on Sat as the high pressure ridge slips south/east and deeper, but light, SWRLY flow reigns. Ridge axis slips a little more south/east on Sat favoring deeper SWRLY flow and offshore moving storms Sat aftn/evening.
The persistent pattern continues into tomorrow with weak high pressure centered over the northeastern gulf maintaining light southerly to southwesterly flow. With diurnal heating providing the only support for convection tomorrow, overall coverage is expected to be somewhat lower with most of the activity once again developing on the eastern periphery of the large upper level ridge centered over much of the southwestern U.
416 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps across the CWA. Following the passage of the cold front tonight, conditions will dry out by Saturday morning along with cooler temperatures.
Rain chance will be increasing from the south toward morning with the approach of low pressure. Aforementioned low pressure that is propagating eastward and is supported by jet circulation will provide broad support for ascent across the area early Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies and light precipitation expected for Pittsburgh and south throughout Saturday. As the center of low pressure passes to the South, WV and southern PA counties have the most potential to pick up quite a bit of rain, with some spots seeing an inch or more.
303 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The cold front stopped along the continental divide this morning, with areas north of the front seeing cooler temperatures and light and variable winds, while southern WY continues with breezy west winds and hot and dry conditions. The accompanying midlevel trough is already sweeping across the northern plains, with H5 ridge starting to build back across the state. The high pressure will also help lessen the winds across the state tonight into tomorrow, with westerly winds lowering to 10 to 15 for the southern counties, and generally 10 mph or less to the north. The weekend will close out with continued warm and dry conditions as the ridge across the southwestern CONUS amplifies further, keeping the area generally under a dry northwest flow.
941 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The combination of an approaching cold front and increasingly diffluent flow aloft supports the continued chance of showers and storms overnight, mainly for areas west of the Mississippi River. Warm front extended from southern MN to eastern MO with a cold front from eastern SD to nw KS. Dewpoints were pushing into the lower to mid 70s west of the warm front, as indicated by plenty of cumulus seen on visible satellite loops.
Cold front was slipping southeast into the Omaha Metro area as of 830 PM, with winds turning northwesterly. The second line further north toward Norfolk was associated with the cold front, and consisted of more surface based convection. This Evening & Tonight: We will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather with a cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. Bulk shear profiles meanwhile should remain sufficient for a couple supercells (25 to 35 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear), but lacking in the lowest 1-3 km.
722 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A cold front will push across the state on Saturday, bringing a chance for scattered thunderstorms.
620 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A cold front will push across the state on Saturday, bringing a chance for scattered thunderstorms.
430 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The cold front pushed through western and north central Nebraska at 1 pm CT. Gusty northerly gusty winds in its wake that ushered cooler and drier air across the west. Saturday the upper ridge builds to the west of the continental divide.
650 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Little change in the forecast to note as models remain consistent in advecting an upper trough eastward along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes sending an attendant cold front southward through Missouri on Saturday.
Low temperatures will range from the low 70s in the west to mid 70s in the east. /EC/ AS steep upper ridging continues to build over the western US, an upper level flow pattern will remain over the MS River Valley as a result.
748 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A trough of low pressure will persist inland, while high pressure remains over the Atlantic through Saturday.
This convection was coincident with weak surface cold front and cyclonic flow aloft near the base of an broad midlevel trof.
533 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Upper trough axis continues to shift eastward with convection ongoing across the Upper Midwest. Cooler air has settled into the forecast area this afternoon behind cold front. Warm air advection overnight will bring warmer air to the region for the weekend. Upstream, upper ridge axis will slowly spread eastward resulting in warmer and drier weather for the Northern Plains through at least the first half of the week. Longer range ensembles hint at the continued influence of upper level ridging across the western half of the country.
Pesky upper trof finally departs the region tonight. Ongoing sct convection, mainly over western KY/far southern IL should diminish with setting of the sun as the trof shifts east.
Warm front extended from southern MN to eastern MO with a cold front from eastern SD to nw KS. Dewpoints were pushing into the lower to mid 70s west of the warm front, as indicated by plenty of cumulus seen on visible satellite loops.
Clusters of thunderstorms tied closely to the slowly moving mid-upper trough axis (with weak surface reflection) and daytime heating should diminish early this evening. Much of the central and western part of the forecast area may be completely dry on Saturday in the wake of the trough passage.
1030 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A trough of low pressure will persist inland, while high pressure remains over the Atlantic through Saturday.
Newly formed Tropical Storm Kyle well off the New England coast is helping to weaken the ridge axis that extends west from the North Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula, leading to marginally decreased east-southeast breezes. This slackening trend will continue into the weekend as another low pressure system follows behind Kyle and the ridge axis drops south towards the Florida Keys.
942 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Warm upper level ridging remained over the Desert SW, while upper troughing was amplifying over eastern CONUS. A weak upper level low within the troughing over the IN/OH border had trough extending towards the Tennessee Valley. Much of the central and western part of the forecast area may be completely dry on Saturday in the wake of the trough passage.
723 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps across the CWA. Following the passage of the cold front tonight, conditions will dry out by Saturday morning along with cooler temperatures.
An upper trough axis across middle Tennessee will slowly move east tonight and be over the southern Appalachians for Saturday. Models are in agreement with a 50-60kts 300mb jet streak moving across the lower Ohio Valley into the upper Tennessee Valley placing our region under the favored right entrance region of the jet. As the trough moves east around 0z Sunday, light NW winds and drier conditions are forecast across the area. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 91 69 90 / 50 20 20 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 68 88 68 88 / 70 30 30 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 84 68 89 67 88 / 50 20 30 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 84 64 84 / 70 50 50 10 30.
1256 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and some storms to the area today. Most of Sunday looks dry before a cold front will bring another shot of showers/storms late in the day. Models continue to point to the highest probability of substantial rainfall to lie south of Pittsburgh in close proximity to the surface wave. The cold front will move through late Sunday night, and may offer a few showers prior to its passage.
447 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the North Country.
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The cold front pushed through western and north central Nebraska at 1 pm CT. Gusty northerly gusty winds in its wake that ushered cooler and drier air across the west. Saturday the upper ridge builds to the west of the continental divide.
Heat indices could squeak into the low-100s by tomorrow afternoon over the southern half of the area.
Moisture remains in the lower levels which will still bring in some mist and lower stratus in the western and northern counties, otherwise mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through the weekend.