Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA.
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. HOT WX IS EXPECTED ACROSS MID TN AS A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SPRAWLS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TYPICAL JULY HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER 100S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH W/SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE OTHER AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER CNTRL SD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC TROF. THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS ACRS THE CWFA DURING THE AFTN AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 90S.
A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH LINE/OUTFLOW REMNANT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS SPARKED SOME STORM ACTIVITY AND MAY SNEAK SOMETHING TOWARD ORD BY MID EVENING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER.
435 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015 THE LOWELL FIRE NEAR GOLD RUN ON THE WEST SLOPE HAS SPREAD RAPIDLY. WALLMANN TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SUNDAY. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS GFS/NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL SOLUTIONS HOLD ONTO THE HIGH LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT DRY. THOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE UNDER ALL DAY ONSHORE WINDS.
1034 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON SUNDAY.
1132 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME ON THE EDGE OF AN BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW.
614 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY (WEAK SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS SE ND/WC MN LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS).
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WERE EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS.
40 A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHIFTS A BIT FOR A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH OUT OF THE EAST. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM BOTH WERE FORECASTING ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE KUTS AND KCXO TERMINAL AND VICINITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
735 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PEELED OUT OF THE EAST BAY BUT ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND SAN FRANCISCO BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE SEEN AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE DOES SHOW A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CENTERED IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALSO REMAINS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS THE AREA.
PRETTY MUCH STILL A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TODAY THANKS TO RIDGING ALOFT IN CONTROL. A DEEP RIDGE IS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS CONTINUING TO KEEP TEMPS HIGH WHILE SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY (EXCEPT FOR A FEW EAST OF ALEXANDRIA AND OVER ST MARY PARISH). THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING A WEAKENING BACK DOOR FRONT OVER AR AND MS WILL DRAW CLOSER WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE THE BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTHEAST MODESTLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE.
CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CENTER OF A DEEP WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A POSITIVELY TILTED TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS TO PINAR DEL RIO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PLUNDERED EXCEPTIONALLY FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO HI 70S. LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW.
BEGINNING OF EXTENDED WILL BE MARKED BY LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.
1001 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MONITORING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF DETROIT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DRY FORECAST.
757 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MONITORING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF DETROIT. WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DRY FORECAST.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD/STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BRITCOL WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BUT DIGITIZED PRODUCTS INCLUDING POINT-N-CLICK WEB FORECAST WILL REFLECT COOLER HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER MIN TEMP BASED ON POST-RAIN COOLING TAKING PLACE. THIS LAYER WAS PARTIALLY ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND DECREASE SURFACE DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MISSISSIPPI.
UNTIL CONVECTION REFIRES ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRUDGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. DUE TO MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FRIES FRONT WILL CLEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SUNDAY EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING THAT AREA.
704 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MONITORING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF DETROIT. WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DRY FORECAST.
747 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON SUNDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT JUST NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW'S ABOVE 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PRODUCED ANOTHER RAINY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TROUGH POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM THE MANATEE COUNTY SOUTH. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL TROUGH POSITION WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE FROM THE BAY SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE THROUGH 12Z ON SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 93 74 95 / 0 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 89 73 93 / 0 10 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 91 73 93 / 0 10 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 89 68 88 / 0 10 20 40.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEWPOINT HAS MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER DUE TO THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CLOUDS COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER BUT A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD STILL LEAD TO HIGH HEAT INDICES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THIS AFTERNOON'S ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HELD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOWER READINGS ATYPICALLY EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.
AN ELONGATED DEEPLY-REFLECTED RIDGE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC.
RARE SUMMER COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO MARION COUNTY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN HEADING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO TONIGHT WITH BULK OF CONVECTION STAYING SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. EXPECTING DRY/QUIET CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
RADAR TRENDS AND IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
1007 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE OHIO BORDER TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. TONIGHT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN PRESSURE TROF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS. THAT SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR STORM AND WILL ADD A SMALL CHANCE POP FROM 00Z TO 03Z FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A PHN TO OZW LINE.
WHICH WILL HELP THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP SLIGHTLY FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES COOLED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PRODUCES ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR LOW CLOUDS FROM MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST LATE ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE 9 PM IN VICINITY OF WINSTON-SALEM AS SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DRIFTS SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUING LOW AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CNTRL HIGH LOCATED OVR TX/NM. RIDGING. DRYING AND MORE ROBUST CAPPING WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER POSSIBLE OVR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE NW/NRN ZONES INCLUDING THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY BEING LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPR LVL RIDGE. A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY. BUT DRY AND CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR NW WHERE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WEST COAST TROF WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO GIVE ISOLATED CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA.
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID AND DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. HOT WX IS EXPECTED ACROSS MID TN AS A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SPRAWLS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TYPICAL JULY HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER 100S.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1004 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TOMORROW. ISSUED 1007 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE OHIO BORDER TOWARD MIDNIGHT. TONIGHT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN PRESSURE TROF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS. THAT SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR STORM AND WILL ADD A SMALL CHANCE POP FROM 00Z TO 03Z FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A PHN TO OZW LINE.
A weak upper low, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet, was located over extreme southeast KS this morning and will lift northeast across the mid MS river valley today. A more amplified upper level trough will dig east-southeast into the western US today and tonight. Through tonight, the split upper flow across the western US will phase together as the upper level trough moves into the western US. A down stream upper level ridge will begin to amplify across the plains and upper midwest Tonight. Increasing southwesterly mid level flow across the central Rockies will cause a lee trough to deepen across the highs plains through Tonight.
1024 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
Short range models indicate a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains today as weak upper level ridging exits eastward out of the Central Plains. Along with a relatively weak flow aloft combined with a fairly dry air mass across the high plains, dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through late Monday night. A prevailing low level southerly flow will continue to draw slightly warmer air northward into western Kansas today. Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday night even as medium range models continue to indicate a strong upper level trough pushing eastward across the Four Corners Region into the Central and Southern Rockies early in the period.
606 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN IS IN STORE STARTING TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. WE EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE DRY DESPITE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
522 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM MONO LAKE TO HANFORD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SANTA MARIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY THIS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY.
EXPECTING KALI AND POSSIBLY KCRP IS SEE SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE DRIVERS SEAT. DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. WE WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOW-80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC NW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE TUE AND THEN NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURS. FLAT RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN GULF WILL KEEP MAINLY A ZONAL WSW FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY THRU THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS WE MIGHT SEE A COASTAL TROF TRY TO START DEVELOPING. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET POSITION. IT WILL HELP DRAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX IN- TO THE COASTAL WATERS WEDS NIGHT/THUR.
A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE DRIVERS SEAT. DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. WE WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOW-80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT ARE THINNING AS THEY CLIMB OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE IS FURTHER EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS PRODUCE AN UPSLOPE WIND FIELD.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH AND COULD SEE READINGS APPROACH RECORD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
WHICH ARE IN THE LOW 40S) ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A FEW HIGH CIRRUS.
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIDE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
THIS WAVE WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BEFORE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS IT SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WEST COAST. GENERAL RIDGING WAS OVERHEAD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA. THIS IS CREATED BY ARCING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC DOWN THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND WEAK/DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN'S WEATHER PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER FOR MOST. WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES FUNNELS TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
/ISSUED 354 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES.
The upper low over the southern Plains early this morning will move northeast to central IL/IN by tonight. This moisture will be battling a very dry airmass over central KY/southern IN today with dewpts in the lower 30s over south central KY and upper 20s over north central KY/southern IN. Clouds and rain should limit temperatures to the lower 50s for highs today with some locations not making it out of the upper 40s. Lows tonight won't drop much from that with lows forecast in the low to mid 40s.
619 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SW FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A TROUGH INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
The WAA/isentropic lift on the eastern side of this upper low is forecast to spread across the Ohio Valley today, possibly clipping the extreme southeast corner of the forecast area by this afternoon. High pressure will slowly drift to the east/southeast for the next couple of days. This morning an upper low just off the Pacific NW coast is deepening and will be diving into the desert SW. This same upper low will quickly move out of the SW and move across the Plains for Tues night/Wed.
410 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015 THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE OR/WA COAST. AND THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN UT EARLY TUE. AN UPPER JET MAXIMUM AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AND WEAK CAA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.