Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
614 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Moisture is pooling ahead of a trof moving slowly through the panhandle and into central Nebraska this afternoon. Anticipate thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trof in the destabilizing airmass late this afternoon/early this evening. Trof axis will be lingering across eastern Nebraska on Thursday and will be slow enough to keep a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast generally from North Platte and Valentine eastward Thursday afternoon.
A line of scattered showers, associated with an upper level trough, continues to track from west to east across the Northern Plains. Temperatures again trended cooler than normal today, both due to cloud cover and still some lingering high level smoke.
Cooler temperatures are also expected, especially closer to the coast.
945 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Another quiet/seasonably mild night is underway across the cntrl TN Valley this Wed evening, as a large area of high pressure remains in place from the NE states SW into the Midwest region. Overnight lows are again expected to fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots, which is around 5-10F below normal for this time of the yr. Some models do show a weak trough ahead of this ridge Thursday afternoon.
As such, dry northwest flow rolling over top the ridge of high pressure has eroded through what was just recently an exceptionally moist atmospheric profile. Also, accelerated streamlines across the Western CONUS ridge certainly didn't take long to infiltrate smoke from PacNW fires across much of Western Colorado and Eastern Utah's skies. The next low pressure system spinning ashore the NorCal coast will nudge high pressure overhead on Thursday. This shift in ridge axis places the CWA in between two upper level jets and temporarily reduces winds aloft.
Ensembles still on track depicting a trough moving through interior NorCal late tonight into Thursday. Daytime temperatures will drop to slightly below normal levels on Thursday given strengthening onshore flow and the trough passage, with high temperatures remaining in the mid 80s to low 90s.
526 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over AZ at 23Z to push into wrn NM during the next 24 hrs.
932 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed a longwave trof over the Ohio River valley, with north flow around the backside of the trof, over the Midsouth.
A ridge continues to build into the area today allowing for some upper level smoke to advect in. The ridge will begin to be pushed out of the area Thursday as a weak front approaches the area.
High pressure and smoke will be feature over the region the afternoon and this evening. A dampening upper-level wave and associated cold front will approach the area by Thursday night, preceeded by increasing warmth and humidity. The biggest change from the end of the current week will be even warmer temperatures, with many areas seeing high temperatures well into the 80s at times.
a cold front lays across Montana this morning. Anticipate increasing winds Friday as an upper level low tracks across Montana.
Beginning Friday, southerly flow under the presence of a building ridge should help push temperatures near or above 90 in the Lower Susquehanna for the first of what could be a several- day stretch of Tmax>=90 at MDT.
Some more showers/storms are possible Friday night as the upper trough shifts closer and deep moisture remains in place.
Forecast soundings vary in the amount of instability, with the NAM being on the end and the GFS the low end. A broad area of high pressure and ridging will build into the southeastern CONUS. With no strong upper ridge over the west, there is potential for daily thunderstorm chances and/or cloud cover into the area.
Another quiet/seasonably mild night is underway across the cntrl TN Valley this Wed evening, as a large area of high pressure remains in place from the NE states SW into the Midwest region. Overnight lows are again expected to fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots, which is around 5-10F below normal for this time of the yr. Some models do show a weak trough ahead of this ridge Thursday afternoon. Moisture continues to increase on Friday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. PW values ahead of this trough will climb into the 1. Overall, a little more confidence in showers/storms on Friday with the approaching trough and increased moisture.
Temps will bottom out in the low 60s to upper 50s by sunrise. Upper troughing should start to fill Thursday in response to a deepening central Plains trough.
311 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Quiet weather will continue into the early daylight hours with temperatures, in general, slightly cooler than normal.
Temperatures today will be a little cooler across many locations with increased clouds and rainfall where it occurs.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Thursday with highs in the lower 80s. Warmer and more humid conditions, as well as additional occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the weekend. This trough should bring increasing high clouds through the daytime period Thursday, but no significant chance of precipitation as far east as central IL. A weak upper level trough should move into central IL last Thursday night into Friday, providing lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure and smoke will be feature over the region the afternoon and this evening. A dampening upper-level wave and associated cold front will approach the area by Thursday night, preceeded by increasing warmth and humidity. The biggest change from the end of the current week will be even warmer temperatures, with many areas seeing high temperatures well into the 80s at times. Increasing mainly mid/high clouds Thursday night in advance of an approaching cold front. The high pressure of the last few days will continue to be over the region through Thursday afternoon, before moving to the east Thursday evening. As the high moves off, the pressure gradient will tighten up a bit, but for the moment, it doesn't look like the winds will be in the small craft criteria, but it will get close.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A 500mb trough continues to drop through the Plains today and into the Southeast Friday afternoon, helping slow the subtropical ridge from building over the western Gulf and Deep South Texas into Friday. The trough axis may actually help dip the front along the Rio Grande south into Zapata County tonight.
Then the pattern change begins as upper level ridge shifts eastward into the region. Expect better chances of rain for northern portions of the forecast area, so at least a low end chance over this area Thursday night into Friday, before trough lifts out towards the Great Lakes region by Friday evening.
128 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 High pressure and a drier airmass return for Thursday and Friday.
Cumulus clouds across northeast Wisconsin have generally been fairly flat given the upper level ridging across the western Great Lakes; therefore the weather should be fairly quiet during the evening hours. A weak mid level trough and surface cold front will approach the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, which could set off showers and thunderstorms across central and north-central Wisconsin during the afternoon hours. The arrival of the low pressure system will turn winds to a southwesterly direction, which should help push the aforementioned wildfire smoke out of the forecast area on Thursday.
Some upper level ridging will build in on Thursday followed by a short wave upper level trough moving through Friday overnight. High temperatures will be fairly close to normal over the next few days thanks to the lower humidity values, so that will be a nice change from the hot temperatures we experienced last week.
1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Moisture is pooling ahead of a trof moving slowly through the panhandle and into central Nebraska this afternoon. Anticipate thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trof in the destabilizing airmass late this afternoon/early this evening. Trof axis will be lingering across eastern Nebraska on Thursday and will be slow enough to keep a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast generally from North Platte and Valentine eastward Thursday afternoon.
/issued 932 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ Midevening GOES water vapor imagery showed a longwave trof over the Ohio River valley, with north flow around the backside of the trof, over the Midsouth.
257 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s. High pressure remains in control across much of the eastern U.
Min temps tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 60s under cloud cover and continued mixing from a sw gradient wind.
Mid-level ridging builds into the area by Friday, yielding drier weather to end the work week.
Main upper ridge will begin to breakdown and shift east per a digging/splitting upper trough pushing into the northern Rockies Friday. Departing weak upper trough and associated band of showers is in the process of exiting the FA this afternoon, with residual instability and isolation supporting isold convection across the western half.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 69 88 70 88 / 10 10 30 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 67 88 69 87 / 10 10 20 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 62 87 66 85 / 10 0 10 30 50.
An upper level trough will move east on Thursday, placing us in a quiet pattern for 24 hours. Low rain chances return on Friday afternoon as another weak trough slides east into the TN and OH Valleys.
A clearing trend will then follow through the morning with minimal shower and thunderstorm activity expected on Thursday as drier air wraps into New Mexico and high pressure expands into western parts of the state.
421 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 With upper trough energy ejecting east of the area, we transition to mainly zonal flow aloft today and a lingering moisture axis near the far southeastern CWA. Temps remain below climo norms today and Friday, with even cooler highs Friday given moisture increase/precip coverage as most locations capped at the mid 80s.
1110 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 High pressure and a drier airmass return for Thursday and Friday.
-A few isolated afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms in the eastern mountains but dry elsewhere -Temperatures remaining a bit below normal The mid/upper level trough that has been over the area the past few days will be moving off to the east and northeast as ridging builds in today. Tonight will be precip free with an increase in mainly high clouds as the ridge axis shifts east.
Today Through Friday Night Early this morning, surface analysis shows high pressure centered to the northeast of Arkansas, with a stalled frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico and several weak surface boundaries to the west of Arkansas. In the short term, an upper ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will contract a bit, with a longwave trough moving through the region in the mean flow.
351 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 A weak upper level trough was situated over western Kansas this morning but the shower activity across far western Kansas had ended earlier in the night. In the absence of any thermal advection and downslope, temperatures will be only slightly warmer today.
Elsewhere upper ridging remained centered over the desert southwest. Energy was noted moving towards the Pacific Northwest with a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended north to south across the Great Plains. Models are in good agreement with the trough axis passing east through the day. Highs today may be a degree or two warmer than yesterday's, but more cloud cover and only weak warm air advection is expected to keep temps from being much warmer.
Dew points today will be in the low to mid 60s which will make for a pleasant afternoon and evening. The large upper trough that has been responsible for the great weather will be sliding east today. Another weak trough will approach the area on Friday and could spark a couple isolated showers and storms.
The upper trough will still be overhead, so despite high pressure at the surface, we'll still have very slim chances of TSRA in the aftn and very early evening, mainly in the west, esp the Laurels. This will put the maxes between 80-85F except on the highest elevations where they'll stay in the 70s. The sfc flow turns to come out of the SW as the trough aloft fills/moves east, and a broader Bermuda high takes control. Without the cooler air aloft, expect less diurnal cu and nil chc of rain, which should also help the temps rise back into mid-summer range. Beginning Friday, southerly flow under the presence of a building ridge should help push temperatures near or above 90 in the Lower Susquehanna for the first of what could be a several- day stretch of Tmax>=90 at MDT.
The higher chances look to be in WI and nern IA and this is pretty agreed upon in the latest model guidance. Most of the day/area should stay dry allowing temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. This is in response to more significant trough energy moving through WY/MT.
Temps will bottom out in the low 60s to upper 50s by sunrise. The upper-level trough that's been in place for the last few days will gradually lift northeastward out of the Upper Ohio Valley today. Look for highs to be in 80s on Thursday, followed by lows in the low 60s Friday morning. By Friday, the mid/upper-level ridge axis will move right over the Upper Ohio Valley. Southerly low-level flow will continue to advect warmer, moister air into the region.
248 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Stationary front and low pressure will remain across eastern New England today.
Highs in the lower 90s are expected, even with scattered mid level clouds.
A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas today as forcing from the approaching trough increases. However, the NAM and ECMWF suggest a few showers may persist into Friday morning until the trough axis passes through the forecast area.
Tonight Through Friday Ridge of high pressure and heat will stay to the south and west during the near term.
325 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Water vapor imagery shows upper energy extending from eastern Nebraska down into western OK with strong upper ridging remaining over the Desert Southwest. There are some light returns showing up across central and southern KS in response to the weak upper trough slowly sliding through the area. Upper trough is expected to be moving into the Ozark region by tonight, leaving brief upper ridging in place for Fri.
Subtle ridging currently in place will become suppressed and move east today and tonight as a base of upper trof, currently stretched across the Panhandle and west Tx, digs southeast. Upper trof axis should be passing to the east on Friday, but doubtful that slight increase in subsidence will put up much of a fight for additional diurnally driven sct shra/tstm development - esp southwest half of the CWA.
This will occur as high pressure remains over the region under northwesterly upper level flow. For Thursday evening rain will tapper off but should return early friday morning as the upper level trough/low slows and moves slowly across the Ozarks. The slow movement of the upper trough will allow for additional showers and isolated storms on Friday.
High pressure over the Mississippi River Valley continues to slowly drift eastward this afternoon, as our old upper trough finally begins to lift out towards the northeast CONUS. This second upper trough is pushing a weak front into western Kansas, with southerly winds developing to the east as the surface pressure gradient strengthens. However MUCAPE below 500 will keep the intensity of these showers on the low side. Continued WAA will boost highs into the low/mid 90s.
Precipitation chances increase tonight as an upper level trof swings into the Midwest, with the best opportunity along and north of I-72.
Min temps tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 60s under cloud cover and continued mixing from a sw gradient wind. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. with a ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. The trough will remain in the upper Great Lakes through 00z Sat and the western trough moves into the Rockies then and into the northern Plains 00z Sun. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, a trough in the northern and central plains 12z Sun and a trough in New England. The northern plains trough will move into the upper Great Lakes on Sun and upper troughing lingers into Wed.
The vertically stacked ridge axis over the WFO PAH forecast area will slowly move east through Friday. This advection will be aided by the approach of a mesoscale trough, located in the Rockies today, but settling over the WFO PAH forecast area by Friday evening.
329 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 High pressure influences in control through Friday night with a warming trend commencing for the weekend.
142 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place over the region through Thursday evening before drifting east of the area on Friday.
Dangerously hot weather is expected at least one more day as strong high pressure sits over the region. High pressure will weaken late in the week giving way to increased southwesterly breezes and moderating temperatures. The monsoonal high pressure will continue to build over the Four Corners region (aka: the sweet spot). However, ensembles continue to hint at the thought of a low pressure system dropping down from the Pacific Northwest, which may stifle the southeasterly flow required for monsoonal precipitation in our area.
The lower level trough axis will be in eastern Nebraska and Iowa today, which may continue to provide enough lift for storm development in north central Nebraska. The trough will push this moisture out of the area as it progresses east in the evening. Smoke aloft will also stream into the High Plains along the upper level ridging pattern, giving skies a hazy appearance. Good atmospheric mixing, as indicated by steep low level lapse rates in model soundings, will result in highs temperatures in the 90s to low 100s, with the highest temperatures in southwest Nebraska. Storm activity will continue across the forecast area as the cold front shifts east through the night.
143 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 A weak upper level short wave trough is continuing to make a slow progression to the east, located over the Texas Panhandle to the Permian Basin early this morning and expected to the east of the forecast by evening. The trough will be moving over an area across the Rolling Plains today that will have a bit better surface moisture but still somewhat limited sub- cloud moisture. Will keep precip chances near 10 percent for eastern counties today, dropping off to near zero with the passage of the trough this evening.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge remains over Srn NV/Srn CA this morning as a trough hits the CA coast. This trough will flatten out the ridge as it swings east moving over OR today and ID tonight and into WY Friday. As the ridge flattens it will also be displaced east across NM and W TX.
634 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Quiet weather will continue into the early daylight hours with temperatures, in general, slightly cooler than normal.
Deterministic runs predict a weak upper trough to move slowly eastward and over the region today/tonight, then continue to move toward the east while an upper ridge builds from the west.
Interesting of note, models suggest that this mornings convection to our north will produce a localized area of high pressure over the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the typical daytime thermal trough will set up across the FL Peninsula.
Upper level analysis shows ridging over the Rockies and the Great Basin, with northwest flow across much of the Plains. Temps are mostly in the 60s, with some 50s over the higher Black Hills. A somewhat active pattern can be expected across the region over the next few days, as a series of disturbances pass over weakening ridge to the west. The best chances for storms looks to be Friday afternoon into Friday night as front lifts back north as a warm front and a pacific cold front approaches from the west.
Last nights upper air plot placed 500 mb high near Las Vegas while at 300 mb the high was further south near Yuma.
646 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Water vapor imagery shows upper energy extending from eastern Nebraska down into western OK with strong upper ridging remaining over the Desert Southwest. There are some light returns showing up across central and southern KS in response to the weak upper trough slowly sliding through the area. Upper trough is expected to be moving into the Ozark region by tonight, leaving brief upper ridging in place for Fri.
620 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 High pressure influences in control through Friday night with a warming trend commencing for the weekend.
This activity is tied to ribbon of midlevel moisture immediately ahead of a trough axis. There hasn't been much measurable precipitation with these showers, and this will likely continue through the remainder of the morning and early afternoon as the upper-level trough/low to mid level moisture continues to move to the southeast.
Unseasonably strong upper low is near Eureka this morning and will track eastward through Shasta and then northeast into Modoc county through the day. Enhanced gradient southeast of the low will keep gusty winds going through the day especially upvalley and over ridgetops over the southern Cascade range and the Sierra, including major ongoing fires.
For Friday, a low pressure system will approach with an increase in coverage of thunderstorms.
The remnant trough overhead will once again be in place today. Look for lows in the low 60s Friday morning. By Friday, the mid/upper-level ridge axis will move right over the Upper Ohio Valley. Southerly low-level flow will continue to advect warmer, moister air into the region.
Later this weekend, a trough of low pressure will slide south out of British Columbia, giving northwest Montana their chances for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Confidence on the details remain low, as forecast models continue to differ on the track and strength of the low. However, there's a chance for widespread wetting rains, and much cooler temperatures in the near future for the Northern Rockies, at least for northwest Montana.
Temperatures have been slightly increased in this update due to observations trending warmer for the CWA.
The upper-level trough that's been in place for the last few days will gradually lift northeastward out of the Upper Ohio Valley today. Look for highs to be in 80s on Thursday, followed by lows in the low 60s Friday morning. By Friday, the mid/upper-level ridge axis will move right over the Upper Ohio Valley. Southerly low-level flow will continue to advect warmer, moister air into the region.
Winds will remain light and generally nerly with high pressure situated to our n/ne.
Elsewhere, expect highs to reach the lower to mid 80s because of cloud cover and precipitation effects.
/Issued 421 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ With upper trough energy ejecting east of the area, we transition to mainly zonal flow aloft today and a lingering moisture axis near the far southeastern CWA. Temps remain below climo norms today and Friday, with even cooler highs Friday given moisture increase/precip coverage as most locations capped at the mid 80s.
Models show upper ridging over Colorado today and tonight. Models indicate just enough mid level moisture ahead of the trough axis, combined with daytime heating and destabilization, to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
/issued 353 AM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A 500mb trough continues to drop through the Plains today and into the Southeast Friday afternoon, helping slow the subtropical ridge from building over the western Gulf and Deep South Texas into Friday. The trough axis may actually help dip the front along the Rio Grande south into Zapata County tonight.
733 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Stationary front and low pressure will remain across eastern New England today.