Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While the best chance looks to be late tomorrow afternoon, the low likelihood still doesn't seem to justify any mention.
A few of these storms could be strong as the reach western portions of the area, but the low-level jet will be veering by this time, with the complex likely weakening by mid morning as it pushes into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonal temperatures to the region tonight.
549 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonably warm weather into tonight; however, a progressive flow pattern will support rapidly changing weather into midweek. High pressure will complete a slide across the region tonight with warm, moist advection escalating as a short wave trough advances eastward through the lower Great Lakes.
330 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 (Tonight and Monday) Looks like quiet weather during the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge builds over Texas. (Monday Night through Sunday) An upper level ridge will build from the southeast U.
Weak trough axis moving across the state today with associated deep moisture. As inverted trough exits into the Gulf, pocket of drier air works into CWA in its wake. Global models consistent with next inverted trough (tropical disturbance) approaching the SE FL coast early on Tue. Large pool of deep layer tropical moisture remains in place across central FL mid week into the weekend as long fetch of SE flow persists west of Atlantic anticyclone. By late in the week, the flow may acquire a more S/SW component as high builds southwest and weakening frontal trough drops into S GA and FL panhandle. Behind this trough, drier air will filter back into the area from the southeast with decreasing precipitation chances.
Heat index values are in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.
143 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure over the eastern U.
221 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A weak low pressure system off the Southern California coast will keep high temperatures a few degrees below average through Monday with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle extending into portions of the inland valleys.
The higher LFC and the lack of a focus in northeast Oklahoma should preclude any development.
Highs Monday afternoon, outside of the eclipse, will reach the lower 90s. Lows Monday night will only drop into the low/mid 70s ahead of an approaching cold front.
Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the 50s with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with light winds. Energy will dig toward the Great Lakes, with ridging expanding across the Rockies. However, southerly breezes will return to the forecast area by late in the week as the ridge out west breaks down due to advancing energy from the eastern Pacific. Some p6sm light showers will affect MBG, ABR, and ATY at the station or in the vicinity this afternoon as a short wave trough moves east.
Towering Cu/Cbs and their subsequent cooling rain and outflow(s) kept many ambient temperatures in the lower 90s and.
107 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure over the Appalacians will continue to provide fair weather across our area today through Monday morning. The southerly flow around this high will result in warmer and more humid conditions the next couple of days.
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ The late morning growth of a expansive cumulus field a signal that the lower levels are still pretty moist. Thicker cloud cover and more frequent areawide precipitation as the region falls along the western edge of broad cyclonic flow from an western Gulf upper low. This is where the the highest PW plume of near 2 inches resides and. with higher PV coming around the northwestern periphery of the central Gulf upper low.
558 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will build south of the area tonight and Monday.
650 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will bring dry and seasonably hot weather to the region for the start of the work week.
Clear skies across Middle Tennessee will allow for another warm summer day with forecast highs mainly in the low 90s, with upper 80s across the plateau.
Heat indicies will rise into the lower 90s by late afternoon into early evening across southeast NE and southwest IA. On Monday evening and night, considerable thunderstorm activity is expected along a cold front moving south through the mid-MO Valley.
Mon afternoon, showers and tstms are expected to develop over and near the higher terrain, and along the I-25 corridor, while much of the southeast plains is expected to be dry. Temps on Mon are expected to be a little cooler than today.
Temps at 20Z/3 pm ranged from around 80F north of Peoria to the lower 90s from Effingham to Lawrenceville south where heat indices were topping 100F with muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A cold front will track se through central IL on Tue likely bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms, and lingering over southeast IL southeast of I-70 early Tue evening.
We do not expect to alter the low POPs this evening. The cloud cover and rain chances should lead to about a 10 degree high temperature drop by mid afternoon, as compared to today, with especially cooler evening temperatures.
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will push east of the area today.
244 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area through Monday. However, upper ridging over the region will help keep moisture shallow and limit the thunderstorm chances.
/Issued 405 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/ An upper low over the southwestern states today will track northeast across the southern Rockies and approach the Panhandles by tonight and Monday. Chances for convection expected to increase today through early this week as upper low becomes absorbed into longwave trough moving eastward across the Rockies and Plains states.
Also weak energy rotating over a broad anticyclone in east Texas has aided in the development of showers and storms over western and central Louisiana.
325 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Upper level ridge over the Four Corners region is in the process of collapsing as it absorbs the upper level low that was to our south yesterday.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s overnight, with conditions dry again. The upper high begins to shift further east early on Monday, allowing southwest flow to set up over the region. The best chances for this will be over eastern Arkansas, nearer to the western periphery of the upper high. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s on Monday afternoon, with temperatures likely dropping a couple of degrees during the peak of the eclipse.
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered across the Dakotas with mostly sunny skies across the area with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance Warm and humid with thunderstorms at times through tomorrow night, then cooler and drier for the rest of the upcoming work week. A gradual amplification of the flow is anticipated as an upper trough deepens over eastern North America. A cold front has entered northwest Wisconsin.
The FGEN induced convection is forecast to move into central MN late morning/afternoon and gradually weaken as the trough translates east and forcing is redirected along frontal boundary further southeast.
138 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Onshore flow will gradually weaken through the week as a weak trough aloft is gradually replaced by a weak ridge.
These warm and humid conditions will continue for at least another 24-36 hours before a late August cold front arrives. 91 degrees, 32% cloud coverage (Partly Cloudy Skies) After the eclipse, all eyes will focus on an actual cold front rather than the hourly sky cover forecast (at least until 7 years from now).
The upper ridge over the area will move to the northwest through the period as the TUTT low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves to the west.
210 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will bring fair and seasonably hot weather to the region for the start of the new week.
With drier column will see minimums on the lower side of the 50s.
Mon-Tue Night: An increasing thunderstorm potential is still anticipated as mid to upper-deck trof strengthens as it surges SE from the Northern Plains toward, then across, the Great Lakes. The trof will send a cold front SE into Central KS late Mon afternoon/early Mon evening with the front possibly reaching the Turnpike early Tue morning. Wed-Fri: Cooler weather will spread across KS as high pressure spreads SE from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes.
There is also a possibility of seeing an isolated storm move off the higher terrain in Colorado and across the plains of northeastern and across the Nebraska/Kansas border region as convective inhibition is eroded late this afternoon. Even though conditions may not be ideal, some of the high cloudiness may not be completely opaque and may be translucent enough to adequately view the partial eclipse expected across our forecast area on Monday.
304 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 A cold front stretching from extreme northern Ontario through western Lake Superior and into northern Wisconsin, as of the middle of this afternoon, will continue shifting east through this evening. High pressure will build into the Northland tonight, leading to mostly clear skies and very light wind flow.
653 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonal temperatures to the region tonight.
Initially a trough of low pressure was moving east along the Canadian border while a southern jet was increasing ahead of a southern wave in New Mexico. The other is if there is little to no activity in the morning and we look to peak heating/surface based convective initiation what affect will the eclipse and the cooler temperatures from about 1200 pm through 200 pm do to that potential? For now, with the strong combination of the incoming southern stream wave and the northern stream wave still believe that thunderstorms will develop earlier in the morning and we will have ongoing activity through the morning into the afternoon. Through the middle and end of the week, quiet conditions are expected as high pressure dominates much of the central US.
558 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonal temperatures to the region tonight.
212 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure over the area will move offshore tonight through Monday.
A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region today, promoting mostly sunny and dry conditions. A rather strong 850 mb and 500mb ridge will still be in place across much of the southeast U.
An upper level inverted-trough located over the northern part of the Gulf this afternoon is forecast to move to the west and into our area Monday and perhaps aid isolated showers/storms across the coastal plains in the afternoon hours.
348 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure building into the region through Monday morning will settle to the south and east Monday afternoon, allowing a weak warm front to approach Monday night.
317 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Weak upper ridging and a general lack of deeper moisture keeping convection at bay this afternoon. Moisture slowly increasing and deepening through the day tomorrow will bring some chance for isolated to scattered convection back to the forecast area, but weak upper ridging persists, limiting chances to around 15-30% at best. BDL The upper ridge will dominate our forecast area into the middle of the upcoming week with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms across north and central GA.
Cold front stretches across Nebraska from northeast to southwest. Moisture will continue to stream northeast into the high Plains tonight as the southern stream impulse continues to lift northeast. This will allow strong cold front to push south across the central Plains. Much cooler and drier air is still expected to spill-in behind the front with highs in the 80s expected for Tue and Wed.
612 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure building into the region through Monday morning will settle to the south and east Monday afternoon, allowing a weak warm front to approach Monday night.
309 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure in SW PA and warm front lifting north across the Ohio Valley. After the eclipse all eyes do turn to the upper level trough across the Upper Midwest. Surface analysis shows an area of high pressure parked across SW PA and a warm front lifting north across the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures varied widely, ranging from the low 70s to mid 80s.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s will give peak heat indices in the low to mid 90s during mid and late afternoon. Impacts on temps due to cloud cover blow-off will likely be significant over western half of region leading to slightly cooler temps in the Illinois River Valley east to I-55. Eastern forecast areas will likely see plenty of sun and heat index values reaching into the lower 90s. Models consistent in building ridge over western U. Monday and digging a 500mb trough southward into the midwest.
Cooling will continue early this week as an upper trough of low pressure becomes nearly stationary over the eastern Pacific. A nearly stationary upper level closed low will remain along the Central Coast through early to mid week. Cooler temperatures will continue this week with comfortable day time highs expected most places with only far inland locations experiencing warm to hot temperatures. Medium range forecasts indicate some strengthening of an upper level high over the Desert Southwest and California. Depth of the marine layer continues to climb as an upper level low sits off the southern California coast. SFO Bridge Approach.
131 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonably warm weather into tonight; however, a progressive flow pattern will support rapidly changing weather into midweek.
Overnight lows this evening will be slightly warmer in response to increased cloud cover. The area of low pressure will remain well situated over southern California on Monday with high pressure to our east over the southern Plains. As a result of this continued weather pattern we should not expect much change to our forecast on Monday with another round of diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
240 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will build south of the area tonight and Monday.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with hot high pressure over the Lower Intermountain West and cool pacific air over the western half of Canada. This afternoon through Tonight: As high pressure scurries off to the east today a lee side trough will set up in its wake and move across the CWA just as fast overnight.
330 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Above normal temperatures will persist across the Ohio Valley through Monday ahead of a cold front.
/issued 215 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/ Upper level high pressure centered across the southern high plains and southern rockies will remain nearly stationary and be the main weather influence through Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above normal with the upper ridge dominating through Saturday.
High pressure ridging aloft will rebuild over Montana today and remain in place through this weekend.
Have introduced VCTS in the evening and overnight hours for terminals north of the I-20 Corridor and terminals along the corridor as convection will be possible along and to the north of a southward moving cold front. Southwest winds of 08/14kts will become variable just ahead of the cold front late tonight with winds shifting around to a NNE direction in the wake of the cold front during the day Sat.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region will build into California during the next several days and bring generally dry weather and above normal temperatures.
The cooler and drier low-level air will be slower to arrive, so lows should only fall to the upper 60s/around 70. The cold front will be well to the south of the forecast area by sunrise on Saturday, with high pressure building southward through the day. The northerly flow at the surface will filter in a much drier airmass, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s by the afternoon. This airmass will behind the front will also bring some cooler temperatures, with highs barely reaching into the mid 80s.
1205 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Low pressure will result in showers and a few thunderstorms through part of Saturday.
The main emphasis for aviation weather hazards will be the increasing threat for TSRA/SHRA developing from north to south late this afternoon and tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. In the forecast area, showers have struggled to move south of the Highway 82 corridor as mid level ridging continues to have the strongest influence. Expect better moisture/flow to shift south later this afternoon and tonight into the ArkLaMiss region ahead of a cold front, and this will support the potential for multicell storms with a few strong/severe storms as hot/humid air provides plenty of instability in spite of ordinary mid level lapse rates. /EC/ A cold front will continue its southward trek through the forecast area during the course of the day on Saturday.
837 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 With the mid level trough moving away to the Northeast this morning, a more stable airmass is expected for this afternoon.
KMD 216 AM CDT Weak secondary cold front will continue to move slowly south across the area this morning, with some models hinting at some isolated showers or sprinkles south of the Kankakee River this morning. Otherwise, modestly brisk northerly winds are expected today with dewpoints a good 10F+ lower than yesterday with temps in the same ballpark or a bit cooler.
1052 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Slow-moving cold front to continues to make some swd progress this morning, and associated convection is making very slow swd progress as well. Have introduced VCTS in the evening and overnight hours for terminals north of the I-20 Corridor and terminals along the corridor as convection will be possible along and to the north of a southward moving cold front. Southwest winds of 08/14kts will become variable just ahead of the cold front late tonight with winds shifting around to a NNE direction in the wake of the cold front during the day Sat.
/Issued 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/ An upper high over the Panhandles will remain through the weekend.
VFR conditions to prevail today and tonight as high pressure continues to build over the region. /issued 403 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Latest model trends remain on track with the mid and upper level ridge indicated to expand across Texas the next 24-36 hours and beyond. As the atmosphere drys out and the ridge axis builds more directly overhead heights and thicknesses increase and 850mb temperatures inch upward into the 22-24C range which will translate to many locations exceeding 100 degrees both today and Saturday.
A cold front near the Ohio River early this morning will continue southward and clear most if not all of the FA by midday/early afternoon. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s even with abundant sunshine. The dry and cooler airmass which will be over the region for the weekend will slowly start to moderate as we work through the week. As such, humidity levels will be also slow to rise, with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 60s early but rising into the mid to upper 60s later in the week.
An upper low and unstable atmosphere will result in a few storms through late afternoon. The cold front that tracked through central Indiana yesterday will move farther southeast into the Tennessee Valley today. However, there will be some lingering showers and thunderstorms this morning until the associated upper low moves east of the forecast area.
The showers over Lee County will only drift very slowly northward as they are sitting under the deep- layered ridge.
Period begins with the region under NW flow as the ern trof deepens and the upper ridge remains locked in place over the Southern Plains. NW flow is expected to continue thru the end of the forecast period as the upper ridge is slowly broken down by a number of s/w that round the top of the ridge.
/ISSUED 504 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/ Hot & mostly dry wx will persist going into Saturday with upper ridging remaining in control. Lower PW's and warmer 850/700mb temps should keep rain chances quite limited. Similar conditions are expected Saturday, with temps maybe a degree or two warmer considering a llvl sw flow in place.
An upper level trough over the NE Pacific will maintain onshore flow with areas of low clouds night and morning low clouds, near the coast and locally inland through much of the weekend. The areal extent of the low clouds will lessen each day for slow warming through the weekend.
1003 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Today through the weekend looks mostly rain free, as high pressure builds down from Canada into the Great Lakes. Most lows will be in the low 60s. Saturday increasing sunshine with highs in the low and mid 70s.
A ridge will bring a warming and drying trend starting mid week. The mean ridge that has been a persistent feature over the central/southern Rockies remains centered over nrn NM this morning with a light swly flow over our CWA.
Radar estimates in Marion county show rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch with the higher rates to the south and west across Northern Alabama and Southern Middle TN. Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 70 84 66 / 100 70 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 67 81 62 / 80 70 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 68 81 62 / 70 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 64 77 57 / 80 70 20 10.
The cold front has pushed into extreme southern Illinois early this morning. Despite this, not much further progress is anticipated today, as the partly-mostly cloudy skies at times will keep the lower levels from fully mixing out. A pretty quiet period is shaping up, as broad scale troughing stays in place over the eastern U. A gradual modification in air mass will result in temperatures returning to near normal after a few cooler days.
1055 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Surface cold front currently near I44 as indicated by switch to north winds, however drier air continues to lag quite a bit behind the boundary and likely will not arrive into the area until this evening.
Soundings across Central and N FL show abundant moisture from lower to mid levels of the atmosphere with overall PWAT near to just below 2 inches, however there is warmer than normal temperature aloft with H5 temps registering around -6 to -6. Ridge axis shifts south of the area, as frontal boundary moves into the southeast United States today. High pressure ridge axis shifts south of the waters.
Today Through Thursday Night The large scale pattern remains fairly unchanged this morning with upper ridging still firmly entrenched from the Gulf northeastward to the Great Lakes. Under this regime, warmer than average temperatures are expected through the period with most locations reaching the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon.
Cold front has moved into New Mexico. With cooler temperatures and higher dew points on the plains, conditions will remain below red flag criteria.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): There will be a sense of weather deja vu today as the warm and humid air mass remains in place with high pressure ridging aloft. For Thursday, the pattern begins to shift a little as the subtropical ridge flattens and elongates over the Texas and the Gulf. As this occurs, a lobe of low pressure will stretch across the northern Gulf coast with an uptick of moisture possible across the Texas Coastal Bend region.
9UM IR and KBYX show some CU streamers with a few embedded showers associated with the trough, remaining north of the local marine area. Looking aloft, NE mid-upper level flow continues between a large GOMEX ridge and a deforming mid-upper trough extending from west-central Cuba into the western Bahamas.
309 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A cold front is very evident on radar this morning displaying itself as a fine line from eastern Nebraska through north central Kansas and into southwestern Kansas.