Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A better chance for thunderstorms exists Thursday afternoon as the cold front pushes further southeast through southwest and central Kansas into Oklahoma. Look for lows back down into the 60s(F) tonight as light southeasterlies prevail across the high plains. A strong cold front will push southeastward across western Kansas through the afternoon time frame halting climbing temperatures across west central Kansas by mid day. Short range models show H85 temperatures falling well into the teens(C) as much cooler air spreads across the region behind the front. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, temperatures could struggle to reach the lower 80s(F) in west central Kansas. Breezy N/NE winds usher in cooler temperatures on Thursday, with afternoon readings falling 5-10 degrees compared to Wednesday's temperatures.
The main question today will be precipitation chances as drier air advects in from the north behind a departing cold front. Although highs today behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 70s, dew points will remain juicy across much of the area remaining at or above 60 degrees south of Rhinelander. However a strong low pressure system approaching from the west will cause POPs to increase once again later tonight as isentropic lift increases ahead of this next system.
109 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail this afternoon.
An associated cold front over the northern Plains, will push southward tonight, and across the forecast area Thursday into early Thursday evening. The cold front is progged to push through northwestern Kansas Thursday morning, and southern Kansas in the afternoon into the early evening hours.
1239 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A weak trough of low pressure will drift across the area today and tonight. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible across northeast Missouri and western Illinois ahead of the trough and approaching short wave that will impact the area this today. Kelly A weak trof of low pressure at the surface will drift across the area today and tonight. This trof combined with cyclonic synoptic flow aloft associated with the longwave trof over the eastern U. Not expecting any airmass changes with this surface trof so am using persistence as a guide for temperatures through the period. Carney Deepening upper level low to lift surface system towards Great Lakes region dragging strong cold front through region Thursday/Thursday night.
The marine layer will keep the immediate coast more seasonal, but still on the warmer side, before the stratus propagates northward once again. Northwest California temperatures will gradually decrease to near normal values as the ridge of high pressure weakens through this weekend. An upper trough, located off the S.
These are associated with an upper trough axis currently extending from northern Ohio southwestward, right over the Mid-South, to central Texas. A chance of showers and thunderstorms exists for much of the area today as the upper trough keeps clouds strung across the skies. The upper trough remains stationed over the region, and several weak impulses embedded in this flow will allow for some showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday. Highs will be a bit warmer Thursday, with the region likely experiencing more sun.
As the trough gets closer to the coast, convection will develop mainly over the Gulf waters and spread inland across the FL panhandle and southern GA/southeast AL. Otherwise, skies will become cloudy with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
The main upper trough will drop southeast across eastern Montana and North Dakota, pushing the cold front southeastward into the western sandhills by late afternoon. The highest pops from 50 to 60 percent will be near and east of highway 83 from mid afternoon into this evening. During the late evening and overnight, the activity will diminish and end from northwest to southeast as the cold front accelerates southeastward through the forecast area. Some clearing late tonight, with lows from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.
Cooler, drier air will push in behind the front Thursday night, and will generally linger through the weekend.
1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Northwest low-level flow will actually bring slightly warmer air into the area today, with a pocket of 850 hPa temps near 17 to 18 C spreading in from Nebraska and the Dakotas. This warmer airmass allowed those areas to rise into the middle to upper 80s yesterday and similar readings are expected across our area today. This activity will develop ahead of a cold front currently over the northern High Plains which will eventually track into eastern KS and northern MO Thursday evening and afternoon.
1125 AM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 The first of two cold fronts has tracked across the CWA east of the divide earlier this evening. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler today east of the divide except 15 degrees cooler in Johnson County. This front will feel the coolest as post frontal northerly winds this morning make it seem cooler.
255 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Under mostly sunny skies and light southeast winds, temperatures are hovering in the lower 90s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a strengthening western Atlantic ridge lies from extreme south Florida southward to across the island of Cuba. A sharply amplified subtropical ridge axis aligned across our entire region, the archipelago of Cuba and south Florida will gradually lift northward over the next couple of days.
Northwest flow aloft dominates the forecast period contributing to generally cooler than normal temperatures across the area.
A weak surface cold front and upper level trough lie over Iowa this morning but are currently causing no impactful weather. While the cold front and associated precip will not arrive until the daytime Thursday, we could see a few WAA-induced thunderstorms develop after midnight. A warm and humid air mass will pool ahead of the system's cold front. The trend over the past several model runs was to slow the arrival of the cold front. As portrayed by the 3 km NAM and NMMB, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the cold front during the mid to late afternoon.
A steep ridge of high pressure is expected to remain in place over the West Coast, with a deep low over the Northern Pacific and a longwave trough axis over the eastern CONUS.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure centered over Nevada has spread out across the western third of the CONUS and rides up a ridge through the Cascades and into British Columbia. The ridge being so far to the west has allowed an express lane for modified arctic air to form along the front range under northwest flow.
Current radar and satellite imagery indicates a few showers and storms beginning to fire along the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians and the Cumberland Plateau. Overall, expect the activity to remain limited to the higher elevations with mostly dry conditions in the valley. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a broad trough across the Central and Eastern CONUS. A jet streak moving through the region has kept high clouds in throughout much of the day with cooler than average high temperatures today. Mid to high clouds will continue into Thursday with broad troughing continuing across the region.
The cold frontal boundary of interest though is progged to be farther to the north extending across eastern MT into ND at that time. aforementioned cold front finally sweeps into the CWA bringing much cooler/dry air mass to the central Plains.
359 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening, but will redevelop again Thursday as a vigorous system moves into the area ahead of a cold front.
Models are in good agreement with this system continuing to deepen over the northern plains which will force a strong cold front southward across the Heartland on Thursday.
remnants of the old cold front. over the nrn Gulf, while high pressure remains anchored over the sern CONUS/Mid- South. Next few days look fairly similar to today with the trof hanging over the ern CONUS and periodic vorts dropping through the region. A light and mainly onshore flow is expected through the period once high pressure becomes established to our east.
Moisture will be markedly increasing across central Georgia overnight tonight as a warm front quickly lifts back northward from the Gulf coast.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will move southeastward from the western Canadian Prairies across the Dakotas and into Minnesota tonight. GFS and GEM Regional seem to be the cooler two deterministic models and nudged high temperatures for Thursday toward them. The cooler trend yields a broad area of middle and upper 50s from near Silver Bay inland to the eastern Iron Range and areas south, including the Twin Ports, Brainerd, and Hayward.
324 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest and stall over southern Quebec tonight through Thursday.
A weak 850 trough of low pressure extends from SW AR across east Texas and then westward toward the Big Bend. A weak 700 mb trough extends from northern LA into East Texas. Will make some minor tweaks to the forecast to match obs but otherwise the high PoPs and locally heavy rain in the wx grids look to be on the money. Low pressure will develop across West Texas on Thursday and surface winds will veer to the south-southwest late this week.
Overall weather pattern through Thursday night looks unsettled with a warm and moist low-level air mass, and broad and weak upper trofiness both remaining in place. A series of weak disturbances swinging through the upper trof will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, but convection will be more isolated on Thursday afternoon. Storm chances will be in play again on Thursday with the upper trof axis remaining just off to our west.
A cooler air mass has spread over most of central Alabama this afternoon with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s northwest to upper 70s southeast. The areal coverage of showers should decrease after midnight as the large scale lift associated with the upper low shifts into Georgia. The low will push rapidly eastward Thursday morning with clearing skies expected across all of central Alabama.
High pressure aloft currently over Arizona and responsible for the May heat will slide to our south and east tonight.
By Thursday the trough will be east and the chances for precipitation remain just along the northern boarder. Used the highest guidance for wind speeds Thursday which gave a reasonably breezy but not windy day with west to northwest winds. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 60s southwest to lower 70s James River Valley. Current greenup will again keep fire danger below the high level even with the gusty winds.
Very large low pressure systems should cover the state most of the time, causing unsettled weather.
The pressure gradient will increase across the lower Texas coast Thursday and breezy conditions will develop across the coastal sections of the CWA Thurs afternoon.
1226 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 The upper low will move south towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley today. As this occurs, upper level ridging will begin to approach from the west later today and tonight. NAM soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and with upper level cold pool still lingering across the area, a few showers will remain possible today, but coverage will be more spotty with decreasing influence from the upper low. Late this week through the Memorial Day weekend, an upper low initially centered over the southern Canadian prairies Thursday night will gradually sink south and eastward into the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge lies in the Straits of Florida with an intensifying low pressure system (995 mb) located over the Tennessee/Kentucky border with an associated trough reaching southward into the south central Gulf of Mexico.
with the upper low centered to the west over Missouri. Still appears that eastern sections of our CWA will see the highest POPs during this time where the deepest moisture and strongest forcing will reside. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. with highs warming into the low to mid 60s. Turning partly cloudy and warmer. The upper level low will finally lose its grip over northern Michigan (at least eventually).
Closed upper low over the mid-Mississippi Valley is starting to fill in, but a vort lobe lifting through the Tennessee Valley ahead of it has really sharpened and may be taking over as the main player in our weather. Expect the pattern to slow down due to some Fujiwhara effect between the two upper lows, and we will end up with a stacked system somewhere near Cincinnati by daybreak on Thursday. Elongated north-south trofiness early on Thursday will support scattered to numerous showers with the highest POPs across the Bluegrass region, closer to the low pressure center.
Temperatures inland should be a bit warmer for Thursday compared to today as winds become more southerly, with highs inland into the 60s, with some mid 50s still expected along Lake Superior. This precipitation looks to be supported by a push of 850-700 mb warm air advection ahead of the trough.
Cooler than average temperatures are expected again on Thursday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will build over the region this weekend bringing dry weather and warm temperatures for Memorial Day.
Early this morning an upper low was located across south central IA. This upper low will dig southward across central MO Today, then southeast across the lower MS river valley Tonight. The EXP-HRRR solution may be possible given the proximity of the cold core upper low across central MO. Though there will be isentropic downglide on the west side of the H5 trough axis that may inhibit showers from developing across the eastern counties of the CWA. Lee troughing develops Thursday as upper ridge builds into the Missouri Valley. Low levels will see increasing moisture, but the ridge aloft helps bring and elevated mixed layer in, with 800mb temps near 20C.
Onshore flow will commence in the early evening hours and gradual increase along the coast through the night as low pressure deepens in New Mexico. Dewpoints already back into the lower 70s for the eastern half of the area by the end of the day.
414 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Drier and cooler air, in the wake of the cold frontal passage and passing mid/upper level trough axis, is impressive for late May and will lead to cool temperatures tonight. Lows are expected to range from the lower to mid 50s over most northern areas with upper 50s and lower 60s over most of the south.
351 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Afternoon analysis shows a deep upper-lvl trough digging into the Southeast as the cold front that passed us this morning continues to shift east.
This trend continues Thursday and brings even warmer temps, 90s.
Although the mid-level ridge the moves over the Plains tomorrow is not of very strong amplitude, a dryline moves into western sections of the area with a strong downslope component of the low-level winds.
/Today through Tonight/ A mid/upper level low pressure system is sliding from Iowa down over Missouri early this morning, and will proceed gradually southeastward through the forecast period. A large low cloud shield surrounding the low will similarly be slow to clear out today and tonight, with lingering light showers affecting central Iowa this morning before sliding southeast in the afternoon.
214 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Low pressure system to move through the region today with another round of showers and thunderstorms, some severe. The cold front will finally move east of the area tonight, and only light showers expected Thursday.
But thunderstorm activity could develop in the afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
339 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift east and redevelop along the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday.
/Tonight through Thursday/ A few wrap around showers still lingering over the southeast forecast area as an area of low pressure lifts through the Ohio Valley. High pressure ridge is moving into western Iowa this afternoon and this has led to clouds becoming less widespread and ceiling heights rising. Temperatures will be warmer and in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
326 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday.
An upper level trough continues to progress across the Mississippi River Valley early this afternoon, while an associated cold front continues to move across AL and the northwest FL Panhandle. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon as the upper trough axis moves across the region. POPs and QPF have been adjusted to account for expected trends this afternoon, but the forecast otherwise remains on track with partly sunny skies, gusty west to northwest winds and highs in the mid to upper 70s over western areas to the lower 80s over eastern portions of the region.
Full sun will allow temps to make a quick run upward this morning with developing southwest flow as we await the arrival of a strong cold front that will sweep through tonight and Thursday. After a very warm Wednesday, expect temps to be a solid 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Thursday for areas north of the front, or near seasonal normals.
350 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 (Tonight and Thursday) Generally clear skies are forecast overnight across West Central Texas, with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A lee trough will develop across eastern New Mexico and Colorado on Thursday, resulting in an increased surface pressure gradient over the forecast area. The southwest winds in combination with weak upper level ridging will result in unseasonably hot temperatures across the region.
142 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers today through Thursday. Upper low will be overhead on Thursday with scattered showers expected.
550 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Quiet and mostly dry conditions prevail as an upper ridge builds in over the area. Mostly cloudy skies in combination with breezy southerly winds ahead of the front, will bring warmer and near seasonal temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, the radar scope is fairly quiet early this morning as region in too close proximity to mid level low dropping south across central IA, with main perturbations and lift focused around the periphery of the low. With the low to our south and no boundaries of note being suggested I don't foresee any funnels today, unlike yesterday. By late this afternoon and tonight, expect shower activity to dissipate as ridging builds in leading to drier conditions. Tonight, with partial clearing expect more widespread cooler lows in the mid to upper 40s. Thursday Nice day in the lower 70s with low-level ridge axis across the Upper Mississippi Valley.
330 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday.
The lows tonight will be around 5 degrees below normal. GKS An upper LOW, currently spinning over southern Alberta province, will play a dominant role over setting up our wx pattern during the next seven days and the wx pattern will be--what else--an active one to close out the typically active month of May.
increase in theta-e should hold temperatures up around 10 degrees warmer than the previous night, primarily in the upper 40s to around 50 F.
Morning temperatures Thursday will be cool, but exceptionally cold temperatures should be avoided as clouds keep lower valleys of western Montana, Lemhi County and north central Idaho above freezing. The trough of low pressure over the Northern Rockies keeps temperatures cool and below normal for Thursday.
Cold front will push across the area overnight bringing an end to the rain as upper trough and dry slot approach from the west.
/issued 311 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ At 3 AM CDT, latest H5 analysis depicts an upper low centered over southern Iowa and northern Missouri with a trough axis extending southward through central Arkansas. A ridge of high pressure is located well off the Atlantic seaboard, with southwest flow aloft over the local region between these two features. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this morning and into the afternoon as the trough axis moves over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this afternoon from west to east as the trough axis migrates eastward while the upper low centers over the region.
333 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure covers the forecast area at 19Z. The ridging remains over the region tonight. On Thursday, the ridging will be in the vicinity on the eastern third of the forecast area in the morning and expect no precipitation. Some minor model differences begin to show up in the afternoon with regards to the onset of the rain, and departure of the ridge.
The higher res models are washing out the southern extent of the band of showers prior to reaching Valley City and southeastern ND zones.
Weak upper ridging will continue to build east over the region tonight and tomorrow with nearly zonal flow aloft expected.
Models are hinting that that the 10 AM to 1 PM window would be the highest chances for any severe weather at all as we get into better heating of the day. This will be associated with the upper low itself as it begins to move through the area. The upper low will be slow to move through but should be just to our east by Thursday morning. Severe weather is not expected with the upper low.
Will add about 3 to 5 mph wind to the forecast as the trough moves east. This wave will drag a cold front across the Northern PLains this evening. This will bring gusty winds around 30 mph and warmer temperatures to the region. Across western North Dakota where compressional warming will be maximized ahead of the cold front temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s seem likely. By Thursday the showers will be departing to the east and cooler temperatures into the 60s to around 70 seam reasonable.
Low pressure passing to the north is bringing gusty winds to the region today with choppy conditions for area lakes.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the middle of the country with the trough axis across East Texas. At the surface, high pressure was building in behind a cold front and winds across our CWA were from the west-northwest. The upper level trough will move off to the east and be replaced by a a low amplitude ridge during this period and the flow will shift to west-southwesterly.
404 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017 Winds are still forecast to increase tonight as a cold front drops southward toward Utah and Colorado. Showers are expected to continue across the region through the day Thursday and drop southward as the front remains stalled but cooler air protrudes southward.
210 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Low pressure system to move through the region today with another round of showers and thunderstorms, some severe. The cold front will finally move east of the area tonight, and only light showers expected Thursday.
A broad upper level trough will bring near to below normal high temperatures through the rest of this week. The cooling trend will continue on Thursday as a broad and baggy upper trough from the northwest slides down an upper ridge over the NE Pacific and tracks eastward.
1246 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 A mid/upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area this morning is progged to dig south and southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the day. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will build across the Central Plains states.
An area of low pressure will move into the area from the Pacific.
354 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Water vapor imagery nicely depicting the surge of drier air rushing into the state in response to ridging filling the void of the northeastern-exiting upper low moving up into the Ohio River Valley. high pressure centered over the lower Rio Grande is creating a brisk northwest wind with overall subsidence keeping skies mostly sunny and warming this afternoon's temperatures into the lower 80s.