Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday/ The only remnants of our rain making low pressure system are low clouds across the northeast zones. These high clouds will initially be thin and have no influence on afternoon temperatures with highs expected to warm into the lower and middle 70s for all but the northeast. The fog has potential to be a bit more extensive if the high clouds are not as dense or as widespread as currently expected. The southerly flow will bring slightly warmer air northward, allowing temperatures to reach the lower and middle 70s by afternoon and only cool into the 50s Monday night.
As such, lows areawide will be slightly warmer than last night in the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper flow across West Central Texas will remain zonal overnight but an upper trough will be approaching the area through the day on Monday. This trough will form over western Arizona and dive southeast into Northern Mexico before rotating north and east into Central Texas late Monday. The aforementioned high cloud cover will linger through the day tomorrow holding high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
(This evening through Monday) A low pressure system and associated boundary will move north and east through the afternoon and overnight tonight. weakening after the boundary moves through and flow from the west and northwest can bring drier and cooler air to the state.
1212 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The weakening upper level low continues to move north across southern Missouri.
Temperatures have the potential to be slightly warmer today due to the lighter winds. High pressure at the surface remains weak but will still bring light winds with some high cirrus in the skies today. The trend for this period continues to be generally for warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
332 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Weakening low pressure will move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Great Lakes into Monday night.
Weak trough has passed and weak cold advection this morning will only serve to enhance mixing with westerly low level flow. Low level flow becomes more south southwesterly for Monday which will result in a bit warmer temperatures compared to today.
May see some more light fog overnight into early Monday morning in the typical low lying areas, though the high clouds will limit its areal coverage. Onshore winds should keep highs a little cooler near the lake. Lows Monday night should be cooler in the middle to upper 30s, with 40s along the lake.
(Rest of today through Monday) High pressure ridge continues to be in control across South Florida. Overnight lows will be in the 60s over the interior to the lower/mid 70s east coast.
1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (Rest of Today) An upper level closed low is currently spinning to the northwest across the Ozarks. Water vapor imagery indicates dry mid to upper level air wrapping around the southern periphery of the upper low. At the surface, a low pressure is centered across the Ozarks with a cold front extended to southeast. This cold front is moving into northwest Alabama and will slowly move across the forecast area throughout the day. With the moisture being limited to the low-levels, any precipitation amounts today will be light and forecasting less than a tenth of an inch. Clouds will linger throughout the day with highs today only climbing into the low to mid 60s.
A weak upper level trough will affect the area today. There is a decent amount of mid and upper level moisture with this feature, however, the lower levels are rather dry. Overall can't rule out a few light snow showers over the higher peaks so have included some very low pops. Otherwise expect quite a bit of cloudiness as the trough moves across. Meanwhile higher level cloud cover could alter highs over nern CO as readings may be slightly cooler than yesterday.
Change is on the horizon tomorrow evening with increasing clouds and tomorrow nights lows in the low to mid 60s. Not much change in the upper air pattern except for an upper low that develops over the Southern Plains late in the period. The trough approaches South Texas from the west on Monday evening with changes to the weather not far behind.
155 PM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low moving northeast over the Mississippi River Valley. Behind the closed low very dry air was present over the Plains. A band of higher water vapor was present west of the High Plains over the Central Rockies. There will be weak CAA, which will cause highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Monday and Monday night the south winds will allow WAA to return, causing highs and lows to be warmer.
Generally quiet conditions continue through Monday ahead of the approaching trough. Mild conditions continue today, with warmer temperatures and light wind.
At the surface, the low which developed over the Lower Mississippi River Valley in association with the upper trough will continue to follow the upper system's path northeastward. A trailing, weak cold front currently over eastern Mississippi is expected to push across our region by Sunday night. Behind the front, moisture values decrease considerably as high pressure builds in across the south central US (PWATs of 1.
248 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Weak high pressure will continue across the area as a cold front stalls to the north of the area and gradually dissipates through mid-week. Stronger high pressure then builds in for the end of the week, with some drier air moving down the state as well. Weak high pressure will be in place across the waters through the period, keeping a general E/NE flow in place with an afternoon sea breeze possible near the coast each day.
However, the low-level jet is relatively weak and any wind advisory criteria gusts should be isolated. On Monday, upper vort max and area of strongest boundary layer convergence/upper divergence shifts northeast with the stacked low pressure system. Surface ridging will begin to build in from the west.
High clouds over a good portion of our area are from the low pressure system to our southeast. During the evening hours, we're looking at temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s around sunset dropping to around 50 degrees by 10 PM.
107 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with an easterly breeze across the region. Only hazard to discuss is the high risk of rip currents at the east coast beaches given the onshore flow and northeasterly swell arriving down the Atlantic coastline. (Today through Monday) Low pressure over the Missouri Valley will weaken while moving into the great lakes, as low pressure over the high pressure builds into the Southeastern United States.
1015 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low moving northeast over the Mississippi River Valley. Behind the closed low very dry air was present over the Plains. A band of higher water vapor was present west of the High Plains over the Central Rockies. There will be weak CAA, which will cause highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Monday and Monday night the south winds will allow WAA to return, causing highs and lows to be warmer.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will remain to the northeast through Tonight, with weak coastal troughing along the Atlantic coast, while a cold front approaches from the west northwest.
A weak trough and slightly above normal hghts will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area today, along with mostly sunny skies and light wind. A s/wv ridge will move over the area Monday, providing a mild Halloween.
1249 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Dry weather will continue today under weakening high pressure.
1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) A look at water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low lifting towards the Midwest as our next upper level trough begins to dive south along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control of the region today leading to a pleasant day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure will nudge east overnight allowing for onshore to return.
Currently - Modest ridging along the Atlantic coast and lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea is producing gentle to moderate breezes broadly out of the northeast. There is a subtle lower level trough between the Keys and Bahamas. Lower level ridging is in place across the area but is rather weak as a mid latitude trough swings through the central United States. However, the subtle lower level trough will move into the Keys area. Winds may back off, becoming gentle late in the night as the weak trough moves into the Keys. Ridging along the Atlantic coast and lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea will maintain gentle to moderate, broadly northeasterly breezes across the Keys through the overnight period.
The lower clouds ahead of the front will partially clear, then be replaced by clouds based in the 035-060agl range later tonight.
Temperatures will remain cooler with lingering clouds throughout the region, however clearing skies are ongoing from the southwest to the northeast which will result in cooler low temperatures with clear skies. Overnight low temperatures will range from the 30s to the 40s, and highs on Monday will generally be in the low to mid 70s.
606 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (This evening through Monday) High clouds continue to draw closer to the South Plains this afternoon ahead of a positively-tiled trough across the Desert Southwest. As the core of this upper trough tracks toward the Permian Basin Monday afternoon, moist isentropic ascent will remain confined to the Big Bend and Trans Pecos where some showers could emerge.
Moisture streaming into Pacific Northwest along a cold front will gradually shift southward and approach our area through Monday.
Evening satellite imagery continued to show a weakening upper level low over Missouri while surface analysis had a 1011mb low over southern Illinois. The cloud cover will help hold temperatures above seasonal norms in the low to mid 50s. The associated cold front continues to be draped across far northeast Mississippi but drier air has started to take shape. Tomorrow we will continue to be dry as mid-level ridging starts to take shape. Highs will be in the low 70s areawide.
Weak high pressure will continue across the area as a cold front stalls to the north of the area and gradually dissipates through mid-week. Stronger high pressure then builds in for the end of the week, with some drier air moving down the state as well. Weak high pressure will be in place across the waters through the period, keeping a general E/NE flow in place with an afternoon sea breeze possible near the coast each day.
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Scattered light showers will continue into this evening thanks to a low pressure system spinning over the Mid Ms Valley. Passage of an upper level trough axis will help kick off a few little showers, especially in the afternoon and early evening.
58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Monday) A low pressure system and associated boundary will move north and east through the afternoon and overnight tonight. weakening after the boundary moves through and flow from the west and northwest can bring drier and cooler air to the state.
628 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (This evening through Monday) A low pressure system and associated boundary will move north and east through the afternoon and overnight tonight. weakening after the boundary moves through and flow from the west and northwest can bring drier and cooler air to the state.
720 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 High pressure will head offshore on Monday, while a low pressure system approaches to provide rain for the Mid Atlantic.
948 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Weakening low pressure will move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Great Lakes into Monday night.
601 PM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Low pressure centered over the Midwest will push northeast into the Great Lakes region through Monday, with notably higher pressure filling in across the central United States in its wake. Model guidance indicates an approximate 5C of warming at 850-700mb over the next 24 hours and, with less upper-level moisture leading to clear skies, temperatures tomorrow will rebound into the mid to upper 60's across the lower elevations, some 5-10 degrees warmer than average. Winds will be a touch more noticeable across the higher terrain and the plains with improved daytime mixing, but will still be on the light side. Upper level ridge over the central part of the country will be pushed east by a trough along the Pacific coast through the first part of the week.
737 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 (Rest of today through Monday) High pressure ridge continues to be in control across South Florida. Overnight lows will be in the 60s over the interior to the lower/mid 70s east coast.
457 PM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 The region will be under an area of anticyclonic flow tonight as the weak mid-level short wave trough departs to the southeast. A shallow ridge moves over the area on Monday so expect dry, mild and sunny/mostly sunny conditions to continue. Flow shifts to the southwest Monday night as a mid-level trough moves eastward toward the West Coast.
901 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Upper level low continues to track north and east of Middle TN keeping the forecast area in the "warm" sector. (This afternoon through Monday Night) Scattered light showers will continue into this evening thanks to a low pressure system spinning over the Mid Ms Valley. Passage of an upper level trough axis will help kick off a few little showers, especially in the afternoon and early evening.
1000 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 High pressure will head offshore on Monday, while a low pressure system approaches to provide rain for the Mid Atlantic.
754 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Weakening low pressure will move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Great Lakes into Monday night.
107 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Evening satellite imagery continued to show a weakening upper level low over Missouri while surface analysis had a 1011mb low over southern Illinois. The cloud cover will help hold temperatures above seasonal norms in the low to mid 50s. The associated cold front continues to be draped across far northeast Mississippi but drier air has started to take shape. Tomorrow we will continue to be dry as mid-level ridging starts to take shape. Highs will be in the low 70s areawide.
930 PM PDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Weak ridging aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will bring dry mild weather again Monday. Tuesday will be cooler as a trough develops along the West Coast and a coastal eddy deepens the marine layer.
1022 PM MDT Sun Oct 30 2022 The region will be under an area of anticyclonic flow tonight as the weak mid-level short wave trough departs to the southeast. A shallow ridge moves over the area on Monday so expect dry, mild and sunny/mostly sunny conditions to continue. Flow shifts to the southwest Monday night as a mid-level trough moves eastward toward the West Coast. Strengthening southwest winds aloft ahead of the much- discussed Pacific trough combined with deep mixing will promote the warm temperatures as well as increasingly strong and gusty surface winds across the West Slope.
Near zonal flow transitions to weak ridging over the Northern Plains through Tuesday. Upper level trof enters the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday as ridge amplifies across the central CONUS.
212 AM MDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Digging NE Pac upper trough will support mild and increasingly breezy weather the next few days, along with a much colder end to the work week with chances for snow. The upper trough will split with the northern stream portion quickly progressing through the Northern Plains.
These downslope winds will push temperatures into the 60s, with a few 70s on Tuesday in the east ahead of a cold frontal arrival.
High pressure builds back in Tuesday, which will also aid in the drier, warmer conditions through the week.
316 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 An upper level trough over Missouri has led to clouds developing over portions of east-central, south-central, and southeast Kansas this morning. As the upper low moves to the east clouds should clear from west to east today. Behind the upper trough we should see height rises out ahead of a trough that will be digging into the West Coast. Probabilistic and deterministic model trends have been more progressive with the trough late week. Models tend to underestimate the slow down that occurs as energy rounds the base of the trough. The bigger question will be the warm air advection rain before the trough ejects into the Southern and Central Plains.
At that time, energy aloft will start to dig southeast into the western CONUS, leading to a downstream ridge over the Northern Plains. The region will be under upper level ridging Tuesday morning, with a more southwesterly flow setting up as a trough digs down the west coast.
230 AM MDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Zonal flow today will transition to SW flow aloft tonight and Tuesday as upper trough moves inland from the Pacific.
Low level flow is becoming more south southwest with a developing lee low in western Canada in response to the movement of an upper low moving out of the gulf of Alaska. In response to the developing southwest flow regime, we will see warmer mid level air stream in from the west and southwest.
116 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Weakening low pressure will move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Great Lakes into Monday night. High pressure will build in Tuesday and then persist through the rest of the week. Decent feed of low level moisture continues ahead of low pressure over Illinois early this evening. Then, with diurnal heating, and the approach of a mid level disturbance from the west, showers will begin to dot the region, with the highest chances expected across the far west/northwest. Lows will be in the lower 50s.
1213 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (This evening through Monday) High clouds continue to draw closer to the South Plains this afternoon ahead of a positively-tiled trough across the Desert Southwest. As the core of this upper trough tracks toward the Permian Basin Monday afternoon, moist isentropic ascent will remain confined to the Big Bend and Trans Pecos where some showers could emerge.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level trough extends from the Midwest southwestward to over New Mexico, Arizona, and northern Mexico. The southern edge of this trough will move over West Texas by this evening providing enhanced upper lift over the area. The upper trough will lift northeastward on Tuesday with surface winds out of the south across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery near Saint Louis will pivot northeastward through the region today. NAM MUCAPE values beneath the low reach 100-200J/kg this morning through early afternoon, warranting slight chance thunder mention. Given the low clouds/fog/showers, high temperatures will remain in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Once the low departs, the showers will end from west to east late this afternoon.
As such, lows areawide will be slightly warmer than last night in the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper flow across West Central Texas will remain zonal overnight but an upper trough will be approaching the area through the day on Monday. This trough will form over western Arizona and dive southeast into Northern Mexico before rotating north and east into Central Texas late Monday. The aforementioned high cloud cover will linger through the day tomorrow holding high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Hi-res models are in good agreement with the progression of the upper trough both timing and placement-wise but the HRRR is quite a bit more aggressive on chances for precip before 0Z Tuesday compared to the completely dry NAM.
1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Upper level low continues to track north and east of Middle TN keeping the forecast area in the "warm" sector. (This afternoon through Monday Night) Scattered light showers will continue into this evening thanks to a low pressure system spinning over the Mid Ms Valley. Passage of an upper level trough axis will help kick off a few little showers, especially in the afternoon and early evening.
105 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 (Rest of today through Monday) High pressure ridge continues to be in control across South Florida. Overnight lows will be in the 60s over the interior to the lower/mid 70s east coast.
Today West/southwest winds will draw warmer air back into the region Monday, as a low pressure system drifts off to our east.
In the lower levels, high pressure over the ArkLaTex region will shift northeastward towards the Appalachians. Although the flow aloft may promote an increase in higher clouds, subsidence from the ridge, as well as a dry airmass in place in the low to mid levels (PWATs around 0. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Rain chances will persist through Tuesday before dry conditions resume with building high pressure. Coverage will increase tonight and Tuesday with deeper moisture and a crossing upper trough. In general, rainfall will be light with forecast QPF less than a quarter inch outside of the WV ridges where total amounts could be slightly higher by the time showers come to an end later on Tuesday.
Weak lee troughing will develop by this afternoon bringing a slight increase in wind speed from a south to southwesterly direction. As for temperatures, highs today will reach into the low 70s with lows tonight ranging from the low 30s across west central Kansas to low 40s across south central Kansas.
Will see temps a bit warmer tomorrow as 925mb temps rise 2 to 4C and mixing, though less favorable from the south, produces highs in the low 70s for the southern valley to mid 60s in the north.
However, a chill will fill the air overnight with lows dipping back into the low 40s along the lake and mid to upper 30s inland. After today's festivities, all the ghosts and monsters along with the rest of southern WI will enjoy a quiet and warm stretch of weather as upper-level ridging begins to build across the region Tuesday. Looking at unseasonable warm temps Tuesday as well with highs climbing into the upper 60s and even into the low 70s.
A thermal ridge will set up over the High Plains leading to WAA, combined with full sunshine will help temperatures to warm near 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Monday afternoon. A similar situation will set up for Tuesday as well with temperatures Tuesday afternoon reaching the 70s which will be around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure will continue to build into the Southeastern United States while NHC is forecasting the Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 in the Central Caribbean Sea to move west northwest into the NW Caribbean Sea.
Once these disturbances pass the region, upper level ridging will expand into the region and provide dry and rather mild weather for early November.
This last band of rain will be swept off to the northeast with the upper trough axis and we should wake to a foggy, but dry day on Tuesday.
Light north winds will gradually turn south by Tuesday morning while a lee trough begins to take shape in eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
(Today and tonight) Many this morning will likely wake up to see patchy to dense fog as a weak cold front lingers across the region. Expect high temperatures across the I-75 corridor and the SE Big Bend to climb into the mid 80s today, with areas west of I-75 expected to remain in the low 80s to upper 70s behind the cold front.
As it does, a trough of low pressure will move south from the coast of northern British Columbia down towards the border. The trough will bring cold air with it, and the cold front should arrive in the Northern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Cloud bases may even start to lift and scatter a bit during the early afternoon if enough dry air works into the low levels ahead of the next upper level disturbance approaching from the west. Forecast lows remain in the lower 50s thanks to thick cloud cover and warm southerly flow.