Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
That stable layer will be in the form of a ridge axis swooping east across the Midwest by Tuesday, promising a warm spell for the extended. how strong will the ridge be over our area and, if it is strong, then just how hot will we get? The area still is pretty green, so will continue to lean away from the model guidance calling for upper 90s for highs Wed/Thu and onward.
338 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 High pressure returning to control the beginning of the work week as a front slowly moves through the southern extent of the state. The ridge aloft over the southwestern portions of the country starts broadening through the southern half of the country, putting Central IL on the cusp between weak NW flow and weakly zonal flow/very weak gradient. which will result in heat indices back into the low 100s.
CAMs are all fairly consistent with development around 22 and 23Z between Huron and Mobridge areas. Frontal passage will result in more stable conditions with the nose of high pressure edging out of Canada and North Dakota with dry conditions tonight.
401 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 (Today and Tonight) A broad upper level ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states across the central and southern Plains to parts of the Mississippi Valley. The higher rain chances (30-40 percent) are in some of our southern and southeastern counties where deeper moisture will reside. With a similar airmass in place today, have tweaked high temperatures a little above numerical guidance, which mostly underforecast the highs yesterday. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s.
121 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A trough across the area and high moisture will result in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may linger through Tuesday. Thunderstorms more isolated by midweek as ridge builds over the area. Due largely to the rain cooled air mass expect overnight lows generally in the low 70s. Positively tilted upper level trough over the eastern CONUS through the period. overnight lows in the low 70s.
Otherwise, another hot/humid day is xpcted across the cntrl TN Valley this afternoon, as highs range from the upper 80s E to the lower 90s W. Little change in the overall wx pattern is xpcted tonight/into Tue, as a large dome of high pressure at the sfc builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley region, while a strong upper ridge pattern strengthens over the Plains states. The ridge pattern aloft should then begin to translate ewd heading into mid week, which should easily result in a continuation of hot/humid wx conditions for the mid TN Valley. Upper level ridging will be the main controlling factor regarding conditions across the much of the southeast CONUS.
In the extended fcst, upper ridging to build in earnest over the nations interior by mid week.
UPDATE Competing forces right now between the low level jet and a cooling boundary layer over north central ND continues to see pulse thunderstorms approaching marginal severe thresholds. Over southwestern North Dakota, very high pressure rises in the wake of showers/storms has generated peak wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH at both Baker and Glendive. The latest surface analysis shows a surface warm front through western ND, with an advancing cold front into central MT moving east with time. In between, an 850mb thermal ridge with increasing temperatures and instability. This lines up along and ahead of the advancing aforementioned cold front as it shifts through western into central ND overnight. The cold front limps from south central ND early Monday morning into the southern James River Valley Monday afternoon.
In the mid/upper levels a ridge of high pressure is currently present over the western Central Plains with light N'ly flow aloft over Missouri.
131 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A cold front just north of Lake Erie will continue to move slowly south and is expected to cross the local area overnight and early Monday.
This will lead to a mostly sunny and warmer day on the plains, while there should still be some weak convection over the mountains. A ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the southern U.
340 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper level low pressure area that has been over the area the past few days is forecast to lift northeast toward McCook by 18z then across the far northeast and east by days end and finally out of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. Plenty of moisture exists in the vicinity of the low which will help promote shower and thunderstorm activity, some of which will produce locally heavy rainfall. For Tuesday and Tuesday night weather disturbances will graze the far northern zones around periphery of upper ridge continuing a low chance for thunderstorms.
401 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Dissipating front today as high pressure aloft builds in.
A flat westerly flow will be over the region through Monday as an upper level trough passes through western Canada.
410 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 The upper ridge continues to be quashed by the stronger westerlies intruding form the north. forced southward by strong troughing across the high latitudes of NOAM. Utah which will weaken as it plows into the ridge center over our CWA.
High temperatures look to reach around 90, with heat indices into the lower 100s. The short term period looks to continue to be fairly wet as the tropical wave passes exits to the southwest on Tuesday, with lingering tropical moisture across the region and an upper-level trough swinging through the eastern third of the CONUS to the north.
Upper level ridge remains over the Rockies and Great Basin, but has some signs of expanding east into the Plains. Troughing from the Great Lakes down through the Miss River Valley has resulted in lower 500mb heights stretching into the Texas coast. Water vapor imagery shows the remnants of the vorticity maximum along the Texas Gulf coast with another short wave trough rotating through Arkansas and the Mid-South.
213 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region tonight into the early part of the the work week. By Monday morning the upper s/w will be east of the region, but a sfc trof will be lingering across the ern zones. A few storms could linger into the evening hours, but overall expect Monday night be dry, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will be the coolest day with high temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 80s.
306 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Current surface map shows cold front creeping through western South Dakota. For today, cold front makes it into central South Dakota this afternoon. Front will be stalled out in northern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon as weak high pressure slides through the Dakotas. Area will be under flat upper ridge through the remainder of the week. GFS/ECMWF then amplify ridge over the Rockies over the weekend with digging trof over the Great Lakes. Forecast area will be on western edge of northwest flow, allowing for slight cooler temperatures with back door fronts.
333 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 The upper-level ridge remains centered over the Central Plains with northerly flow aloft across the Mid-South.
Ridging weakens over the Southern Plains over the weekend with a potential weak front toward end of forecast period.
1025 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Breezy winds will subside after sunset leading to a cooler than average night tonight.
High pressure mid week. Warmer and more humid with increasing storms late week into the weekend, as a front settles into the area. A very weak cold front washes out over the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as its associated upper level short wave trough out runs it and crosses the central Appalachians.
Unseasonably strong upper troughing extends from the Great Lakes region southward through the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic, with a weak extension into the Florida Panhandle region. To the west, broad upper ridging persists from the Central and Southern Plains into the Rockies and Desert Southwest. These values may be a tick or two cooler tomorrow as the seabreeze makes an earlier passage, and with any localized cooling due to early day showers/storms.
1146 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 High pressure centered over NV will begin to elongate across the Four Corners over the next 24 hours. The center of high pressure becomes a little more round and organized midweek and begins to shift eastward thanks to an oncoming closed low into the Pacific NW.
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week. Front will finally pick up speed this morning and head southward as the main trough axis swings through Ohio. With a split flow within the trough, the northern wave moving quickly toward Southern Canada and the southern diving through Kentucky, there will be only meager large scale ascent available over the region as the upper level system passes through. It looks like the best location to see more organized convection would be late in the day over the ridges. The surface boundary begins to diminish as it encounters the higher elevations and this will allow for modest low-level convergence to develop, which may be enough to pop a few storms.
Latest satellite imagery showed the region under the influence of an upper trough that extended from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley region. This feature was being impacted by an amplified mid to upper ridge which extended over the plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley. The best chance of rain will be across the south where deeper moisture will be the best, while the lower rain chances will be across the north where midlevel drying will be prevalent. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s. During this time the mid to upper ridge axis will start to develop toward the region from the northwest.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Latest water vapor imagery shows the mid-level low/inverted trough overhead. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to triple digits across the west.
A broad weak upper level trough and continuing weak low level onshore flow will keep Western Washington weather seasonably mild today.
Dry air mass associated with the high cleared out the low clouds that dominated early today. So far as of 300pm EDT, the high temp here at NWS Marquette has only reached 59F. Have thus utilized mostly the lowest avbl guidance for the interior. As high pres slips off to the se on Mon, expect a warmer day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, locally cooler along the Great Lakes. Wed-Sun: Models are less certain with how far Tue's cold frontal boundary will push south of the area on Wed. With high pressure and associated dry air mass settling over the area, VFR conditions will continue at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. As the high shifts se Mon/Mon night and a cold front approaches from the nw, se then s winds will increase.
317 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Upper ridging remains over the Plains into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. While the bulk of the showers and storms will stay north of the forecast area this evening, can't rule out a few stray showers or storms along the upper trough for areas along and north of I-70.
156 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 As high pressure drifts east, an approaching frontal system will bring a return to more humid weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. Most of this initial activity is dying as it moves away from the warmer lakes late this evening, but clouds will continue to increase overnight from west to east with southwest return flow increasing ahead of next weather system. A trough should be moving east of the area very early in the long range period. The upper flow is characterized by a persistent WNW flow due to weak troughing over ern Canada and a flat, broad ridge over the Srn/SErn states through almost the entire period.
401 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Upper level ridge was east of the area and an upper level trough was over SASK. Trough will move across southern MAN tonight with a jet max on the southern periphery. Cold front over northwest ND will move through this afternoon and evening.
The dry and cool air mass over the Northern Rockies this morning has allowed valley temperatures to drop into the 40s for many, and even the 30s for cooler spots in Northwest Montana and the higher valleys in the Georgetown Lake area.
548 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Upper ridging remains over the Plains into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. While the bulk of the showers and storms will stay north of the forecast area this evening, can't rule out a few stray showers or storms along the upper trough for areas along and north of I-70. S winds will increase to a sustained 13-17kts ~18Z as a sfc trof gradually strengthens along the Front Range.
In the upper levels the upper low over the Great Lakes is expected to begin to weaken, open up, and push to the northeast through tonight. As the trough weakens through tonight, we should begin to see upper ridging over the mid section of the U. On Tuesday, the upper low and trough begin to shift eastward as upper-level ridging builds in across the Great Plains. A high pressure system remains in place through the upcoming week and only slides eastward slightly by the upcoming weekend.
635 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Dissipating front today as high pressure aloft builds in.
Temperatures are cooler again in the lower to mid 60s northeast to upper 60s to near 70 center and south. Just to the south in north Georgia showers persist near the old cold front that moved through the forecast area a couple days ago.
Guidance and water vapor imagery indicate a potent inverted mid level trough extending from the Tamaulipas MX coast northward into the Coastal Plains. Scattered showers are currently occurring across the NE MX and Lower TX coast (just east of the trough axis) with additional showers developing off the SE TX coast (where moisture convergence is stronger). Otherwise, the best chances of convection in the afternoon will be along the Rio Grande (where height fields will be the lowest) and across the Victoria area (where moisture depth is prog to be the greatest). Continued hot and humid during the forecast period, with today being a few degrees cooler than Tuesday due to additional cloud cover and precip.
Mid level trough over the eastern U. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s, just slightly above climo. Active afternoon on tap as abundant moisture combines with the mid-level trough over the southeast states and produces numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central and eastern peninsula.
548 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 High pressure returning to control the beginning of the work week as a front slowly moves through the southern extent of the state. The ridge aloft over the southwestern portions of the country starts broadening through the southern half of the country, putting Central IL on the cusp between weak NW flow and weakly zonal flow/very weak gradient. which will result in heat indices back into the low 100s.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s across the area. Mid and upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS today will deepen, extending south into our local area. A stalled frontal boundary over northern MS/AL/GA will be dragged southward as the mid/upper level trough deepens into the southeastern CONUS. On Tuesday, the trough will lift northeastward, moving the front further away from our area.
Expect dry conditions under mostly clear skies as the region is influenced by a dry upper level flow between monsoon moisture now to the south and east and an upper level trough to the north and west. These conditions will persist through the short term with maximum temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s across the lower valleys.
A flattening of the upper ridge that has been responsible for near 100 degree heat will mean a break from these hot temperatures over the next couple of days. The potential does exist for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms at times today and Tuesday with embedded upper level disturbances in the southwest flow aloft riding across Montana on the periphery of the ridge.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing across eastern Colorado. Even hotter weather can be expected by Tuesday and on through the week as upper level ridging prevails. High temperatures during the week may rise to near or even slightly above 100 degrees with lows mainly in the high 60s to mid 70s. Light southeasterly winds will persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly develops across eastern Colorado. Winds will turn more southerly mid to late Monday morning while increasing to 15 to 25kt as the lee side trough strengthens.
444 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a weak low- level trough over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a light southerly flow having developed over most of the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.
356 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Satellite early this morning shows upper high over eastern Kansas while a slow moving vorticity lobe was spinning along the northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado border. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. The high resolution models offer differing solutions with the precipitation associated with the slow moving wave late tonight as it moves into north central Kansas with the consensus remaining mainly along and west of U. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
140 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate overnight into Monday.
Dry conditions will continue to prevail this weekend with high pressure over central Indiana. This is a broad low pressure system that will linger through mid-week, mixing some snow in at times during the overnight hours. High pressure continues to be the predominant weather feature over the area. Dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow as high pressure remains over the area. However, a low pressure system is expected to enter the Upper Midwest late Sunday night.
High pressure will be building in the Mid-Atlantic and this will allow winds to turn more of an easterly direction. The easterly flow should also keep temperatures from dropping as much as pure radiational cooling and will keep the forecast right at freezing to just above in the north. Can't rule out isolated pockets of freezing temperatures but those should not last a long time.
Due to weak cold air advection highs will only reach the lower to middle 30s.
339 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Mid level ridge and subsequent downward vertical motions leading to sun filled skies today. Some mid clouds are streaming/developing northward from MO through central IA within strengthening warm air advection on backside of ridge. Given this along with the low level dry air I have stayed near to below cold side of guidance, and more towards persistence lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Lows this morning were on the cool side, from the upper 30s acrs northeast Rapides Parish to the lower 50s in lower southeast TX and along the coast. Temperatures have already rebounded into the 60s as of 10 AM, on track to reach highs near 70 or in the lower 70s. 06 Another nice day expected across the region today as high pressure continues to wedge in from the north. A trough moving into the west coast will cause pressures to begin falling in the lee of the Rockies today and especially tonight.
The low offshore is slowly progressing southward, and continuing to support several weak rounds of precipitation in the western portion of our CWA.
High pressure will provide quiet weather this weekend.
At 130 PM MST scattered snow showers were occurring troughout ur CWA, except mixed-rain and snow in the Treasure Valley, as a short wave trough comes through from the southwest. The main upper low, still along the Oregon Coast this afternoon, will move into and through our CWA overnight. On Sunday the low will be east of us.
338 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Upper level ridging will shift east of the area tonight into Sunday as a deep long wave trough approaches from the west. Sharp ridge through the central plains into central Canada today. Closed low off the Oregon coast with leading edge of precipitation shield from south central Montana too Northern California. High temps this afternoon two categories off with southeast to east fetch of cooler moist air. Best forcing just to the east of the forecast area Sunday night as the upper low deepens and drives into northwest Nebraska. Strong northwest winds develop over the west Sunday night and increase through the morning as upper low deepens and moves east into northeast Nebraska.
Mid level cloud cover associated with an area of warm air advection will likely push into the western parts of the forecast area late tonight, keeping temperatures just a bit warmer west of I-90.
1239 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure and dry conditions will persist through the weekend.
However, expect dry and mild conditions once again during the day, with temperatures likely getting a degree or two warmer than todays readings. Quiet conditions continue with warmer temps Sunday.
357 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Ridging at the sfc and aloft is providing for a very nice early Spring day. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures have climbed into the lower 70s. 24 Dry and somewhat cool conditions can be expected tonight as the ridge axis over the region begins to shift east. This will keep temperatures from falling too much overnight so lows will be milder, and about 10 to 15 degrees warmer, than this morning acrs lower southeast TX and far southwestern LA.
1200 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Breezy and mild conditions will continue through tonight as mid level ridging is positioned overhead. With ample sunshine again today should see temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. The mid level ridge axis begins to shift east tonight, while a longwave trough deepens along the Pacific coast.
300 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place through the weekend.
The Northern Rockies is under the influence of a broad trough, but a weak circulation will be swinging through southern Idaho into Montana later tonight into Sunday. We anticipate widespread 1 to 3 inches with the higher terrain getting up to 6 inches of new snow by noon on Sunday. The trough remains in place through the remainder of weekend as another disturbance makes it into north central Idaho and northwest Montana Sunday night.
An upper level trof will remain over the western U. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM for the lower slopes of the eastern mtns, Fremont county and all of the southeast plains. Tonight there will be areas of breezy west to southwest winds and this will make the low temp forecast quite challenging. Will generally go a bit warmer than guidance. A strong upper low pressure system will sweep across the Rocky Mt region Sunday, bringing a quick shot of some snow to the higher terrain as well as strong winds for the higher elevations as well as the eastern plains. Look for highs in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the plains.
223 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure over central Canada will slowly build eastward into the area today and Sunday.
1138 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Breezy northerly winds have been responsible for advecting drier and cooler weather into South Florida thus far today.
Today should be a lot like yesterday with light east winds and cooler temps along the lake. Quiet conditions continue with warmer temps Sunday.
346 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 The Florida Keys enjoyed a day of no rain and lower dew points than yesterday, which were a nice relief to the high humidities conditions that we have had in the last several days. A strong low pressure southeast of Long Island this afternoon will move southeast and away from the coast.
448 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure over central Canada will slowly build eastward into the area today and Sunday.