Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the wake of this trough, gusty northwest winds will develop by late morning to midday. Have adjusted tonights low temperatures down by 3-5 degrees across the area given the cooler, drier airmass building in. Northwest flow aloft will be in place across the central and western CONUS through the remainder of the week with an upper ridge axis quasi-stationary over the western states and a trough in the east.
This sharpening of the low, should strengthen lift along the instability/thermal gradient and allow for widespread rains and some embedded thunderstorms later tonight. also happens to be the region with the highest flash flood guidance. Unsettled Pattern with Cooler Weekend Ahead.
(Today and tonight) The lower atmosphere is nearly saturated early this morning over much of the western half of Oklahoma.
A weak cold front passing through the Mojave Desert this morning will bring breezy north winds to the Colorado River Valley today.
357 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A cold front will bring scattered showers this morning. Dry weather will return this afternoon through mid week with much cooler temperatures. A cold front crossing the area this morning will bring a period of scattered showers. Dry conditions and much cooler temperatures are expected behind the front this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will maintain dry weather Tuesday.
High pressure will remain in control early in the period keeping our weather dry. Winds will take on a little more of a southerly component through tomorrow which will allow humidity to creep up before a cold front approaches Tuesday Night.
A cold front will move through the region late this afternoon into the early evening. North and northeast winds will get gusty behind the cold front for much of the evening.
The Evening Update: Beautiful stretch of wx for Norcal next couple of days with highs in the low to mid 80s/lows in the low to mid 50s in the Valley, and highs in the 70s/lows in the 40s in the foothills. Much lower RHs than last nite with lighter onshore winds so we should not see the low cloudiness on the E side of the Vly and lower Sierra foothills that we saw early Sun morning. A complex low pressure system over the GOA/NErn Pac will bring a couple of fronts into the Pac NW, but dry weakening fronts into Norcal Mon and again on Wed. JHM Dry zonal flow through Monday will bring slightly warmer temperatures for the interior.
1151 PM MDT Sun May 3 2020 Cold front moving in western Wyoming this afternoon. Warm/dry for Tuesday as upper ridge builds across eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. GFS hinting at possibly the intrusion of a surface cold front Tuesday afternoon into the northern Panhandle and parts of Niobrara County. Upper ridging will be the primary weather feature affecting the CWA this period providing generally dry and mild conditions.
With the better instability to our west, the strong storms that have developed across the high plains have decreased in intensity as they have approached our area. For tonight, expect clearing skies and high pressure building in from the west to help temperatures drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s, but remain well above critical thresholds. Expect brief ridging across the local area behind the departing wave to persist through mid week, with temperatures moderating to near normal.
110 AM PDT Mon May 4 2020 Warming trend to begin today and Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds.
Temperatures are a little cooler than forecasted for parts of West Tennessee, so lowered them. Rain will end from northwest to southeast Tuesday evening as a slightly cooler, drier air mass settles over the region.
Expect that the next focus will be the upper low pressure system over S.
407 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across South Dakota and Nebraska as an upper low tracks across the Plains. The upper low will merge with a second one over southwestern Canada tonight as their circulations begin to interact with each other. The high won't move much through the short term. Persistent dry easterly flow from the high, a slowing of the system as a whole, and its tendency to shear out with time has resulted in a significantly reduced rainfall chance east of I-35. Temps aloft support highs in the upper 50s, but with the added sun we could still reach the low 60s in eastern MN as was previously forecasted.
405 AM MDT Mon May 4 2020 Cooler temperatures in place today as high pressure builds into the forecast area.
High temperatures in the low 60s are expected across the forecast area.
A dry backdoor cold front will drop into northeast NM around 04/21Z and track south and west during the late afternoon and early evening, resulting in nely wind shifts for KTCC and KLVS around sunset. A strong back door cold front will move into the eastern plains tonight with low cloud cover, spotty showers, and much cooler temperatures Tuesday.
A cold front will move through the terminals after 05/06z tonight resulting in an increase in winds out of the northeast. /issued 312 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020/ One more day of heat then the cooler weather finally returns tomorrow. A cold front arrives Tuesday morning bringing highs back down into the 80s for a couple of days.
654 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 High pressure sets up to our north today. Low pressure moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Cold front moves across by Tuesday night. Gusts should stay under 30 mph, and will be mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge. As the low moves into the Ohio Valley expect rain to move in from the west/southwest overnight, with best chances across the mountains of SW VA/NC/WV.
Fairly flat ridging will bring slightly warmer temperatures across the area today.
A warming and drying trend is forecast through the work week as high pressure builds over California.
/issued 336 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020/ Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf, providing continued light southerly winds. The nearly zonal upper air patter today will become more northwesterly oriented as a deep layer trough over Central and Eastern Canada and U.
A second round of showers will initially move across Yellowstone this morning, bringing light snow to most of the higher elevations of Park County. Once this moves east this afternoon, midlevel ridging will begin to build out west, putting an end to showers and allowing skies to clear out tonight into Tuesday.
439 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Today and Tonight: The dry air mass in place across the region has been slow to modify over the last few days, but as high pressure shifts farther to the southeast, flow at the surface and aloft has turned out of the south.
Temperatures will warm to the Lower 90s inland zones and around the mid to upper 80s closer to the coast.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: The dry air mass in place across the region has been slow to modify over the last few days, but as high pressure shifts farther to the southeast, flow at the surface and aloft has turned out of the south.
533 AM MDT Mon May 4 2020 A few showers are lingering across the higher terrain in the Uintas and along the Divide early this morning. Cooler air advecting into the region in the wake of this trough will provide a relief in above normal heat across much of the CWA today. Northern zones will experience the greatest dip, with temperatures dropping ~10 degrees cooler than what was experienced yesterday. Weaker winds will remain in the short term forecast, as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west overnight. However, ridging will bump high temperatures back above normal for Tuesday afternoon. Ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday night, shifting winds to the west, southwest.
424 AM MDT Mon May 4 2020 A few showers are lingering across the higher terrain in the Uintas and along the Divide early this morning. Cooler air advecting into the region in the wake of this trough will provide a relief in above normal heat across much of the CWA today. Northern zones will experience the greatest dip, with temperatures dropping ~10 degrees cooler than what was experienced yesterday. Weaker winds will remain in the short term forecast, as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west overnight. However, ridging will bump high temperatures back above normal for Tuesday afternoon. Ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday night, shifting winds to the west, southwest.
This is due to a general pattern of a ridge over the western U. and troughing over the eastern U.
421 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Not much change in thinking from previous days forecasts as weak high pressure extension from Atlantic ridge holds firm through Tuesday, allowing for subtle return humidity.
649 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across South Dakota and Nebraska as an upper low tracks across the Plains. The upper low will merge with a second one over southwestern Canada tonight as their circulations begin to interact with each other. The high won't move much through the short term. Persistent dry easterly flow from the high, a slowing of the system as a whole, and its tendency to shear out with time has resulted in a significantly reduced rainfall chance east of I-35. Temps aloft support highs in the upper 50s, but with the added sun we could still reach the low 60s in eastern MN as was previously forecasted.
The broad lower level ridge is centered across Florida. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the afternoon.
253 AM PDT Mon May 4 2020 High pressure over northern Mexico will expand into southern California through the middle of the week.
Clouds will stick around however, keeping the temperatures cooler today compared to yesterday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas up to 25-35mph near the high plains of the NE/CO border later today. Clear skies will occur overnight Monday allowing temperatures to dip down near the freezing mark by sunrise Tuesday. Warming in the lower levels of the atmosphere at 700mb on Tuesday will mix down to the surface and bump up temperatures nicely. A developing ridge with northwest flow aloft will be the reason for warmer conditions.
Cold front has moved through most of the mid state, and will continue its way southward through the overnight hours. On Tuesday, another cold front will again move southward through the area during the morning through mid afternoon timeframe, and showers with a few storms will be possible.
Strong to severe storms will develop along a cold front after 20-21Z across northeast OK, with clusters of storms impacting the area the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Warm advection/moisture transport continues to strengthen this morning north of the warm front. By late afternoon, axis of very strong instability with sfc CAPE in the 4000-5000 range will be oriented from south central into northeast OK ahead of an approaching cold front.
508 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level trough will shift east of Pennsylvania today, then a ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
712 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level trough will shift east of Pennsylvania today, then a ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
Temperatures this afternoon will push back into the low to mid 60s with plenty of afternoon sun, though the gusty winds will make temperatures feel cooler. Temperatures will again reach the low to mid 60s for highs, and Tuesday night lows will be mainly in the 30s with mostly clear skies.
627 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020 (Today and tonight) The lower atmosphere is nearly saturated early this morning over much of the western half of Oklahoma.
A short wave ridge building over the area today will start a warming trend for today and Tuesday.
839 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 High pressure sets up to our north today. Low pressure moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Cold front moves across by Tuesday night. Highs generally in the mid/upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge, mid/upper 60s west. Gusts should stay under 30 mph, and will be mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge. As the low moves into the Ohio Valley expect rain to move in from the west/southwest overnight, with best chances across the mountains of SW VA/NC/WV. A mid level disturbance will move over an area of high pressure Tuesday morning.
Mid level QG ascent is moving across, early this morning, with showers and isold storms over the higher terrain. Will probably see some gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range over the plains during the aftn with gusts up to 55 mph over the higher terrain.
With dewpoints near to below freezing inland south of the Umpqua divide temperatures are already nearing frost ranges, and east of the Cascades temperatures are already well below freezing. The weak upper ridge that is giving us generally clear skies with cold temperatures below inversions will shift east ahead of the next, much weaker cold front. This front will wash out on the west side as it runs into the upper level ridge and dissipates tonight.
239 AM PDT Mon May 4 2020 Today's highs will be a little cooler then warming conditions return later in the week. Not much change to the short term forecast with high pressure building over the region. Expect temperatures in the 20s across the Sierra with some rural western Nevada valleys around the freezing mark. Don't be surprised to see some freezing fog as well for some lower Sierra valleys and near Truckee and the Martis Valley as you wake up.
624 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Much cooler conditions are in store for this week.
Some lingering light shower activity possible northwest and central tonight as the closed low drops into northeastern MT, though confidence low. The closed low morphs into an open wave trough and drops south-southeast across the region for tomorrow, along with an associated area of low pressure.
Differential heating via morning cloud cover (hotter north, cooler south where clouds linger) and/or a NW-to-SE oriented moisture gradient could be "that boundary" on which storms dive southeast into the Mid State. Keep in mind, a few storms could develop in our southern counties earlier than that, initiated by a northward-moving warm front.
An upper level ridge with the axis over eastern WA/OR will bring mostly sunny skies today. An inverted surface thermal trough will cause temperatures to climb about 10-15 degrees from yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. As the ridge travels east tonight, the upper level flow will shift to the southwest, and will spread mid level moisture across the forecast area. Cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than last night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
As we head into the overnight period, rainfall will begin to end going from west to east as the center of the low pressure system moves across the area.
Instability and low level shear will ramp up as a warm front lifts northward towards Missouri. The tornado threat should diminish as the second round of showers moves through later tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches the area. Cooler air will move into the area as the front passes allowing for breezy conditions and high temperatures to be in the mid 70s.
Otherwise, cooler/drier air will overspread the area on gusty north winds during the night. Low temperatures will be significantly cooler than yesterday.
852 AM PDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across southern California this week.
Cold front currently moving into far northwest Osage county with pre-frontal boundary located slightly further south, near a Ralston, Copan line. In addition, winds are little more backed/stronger across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas near warm front, where a tornado or two will also be possible.
1248 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across South Dakota and Nebraska as an upper low tracks across the Plains. The upper low will merge with a second one over southwestern Canada tonight as their circulations begin to interact with each other. The high won't move much through the short term. Persistent dry easterly flow from the high, a slowing of the system as a whole, and its tendency to shear out with time has resulted in a significantly reduced rainfall chance east of I-35. Temps aloft support highs in the upper 50s, but with the added sun we could still reach the low 60s in eastern MN as was previously forecasted.
Thompson (Today and tonight) The lower atmosphere is nearly saturated early this morning over much of the western half of Oklahoma.
A lull in convection is expected until later this afternoon, when storms are expected to develop along a cold front that will enter eastern OK at that time.
A broad lower level ridge with ample dry air and stable conditions stretch across our area. Forecast - Surface winds will remain light and generally out of the east to southeast as the ridge remains near our area and a low further north slides by to the east. The lower level ridge will also shift eastward over the next couple of days. However, forecast soundings indicate that the lower level inversion will hold, maintaining stable conditions.
116 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Much cooler conditions are in store for this week.
/15/ Today and Tonight: The dry air mass in place across the region has been slow to modify over the last few days, but as high pressure shifts farther to the southeast, flow at the surface and aloft has turned out of the south.
952 AM MDT Mon May 4 2020 Water Vapor satellite imagery is showing a short wave trough over northwest Colorado at this time. Mid level QG ascent is moving across, early this morning, with showers and isold storms over the higher terrain. Will probably see some gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range over the plains during the aftn with gusts up to 55 mph over the higher terrain.
1121 AM EDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level trough will shift east of Pennsylvania today, then a ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
250 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
That trough has a slight negative tilt to it, and is currently located over the eastern Dakotas. We will eventually see things move eastward as the larger scale upper trough moves into the area later tonight and Tuesday, with precipitation become lighter and more spotty as it does so.
/15/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: The dry air mass in place across the region has been slow to modify over the last few days, but as high pressure shifts farther to the southeast, flow at the surface and aloft has turned out of the south.
With the influx of cooler air north of the boundary, patchy drizzle or sprinkles are possible late this afternoon and early this evening across most of southeast KS and the Flint Hills. Otherwise, cooler/drier air will overspread the area on gusty north winds during the night. Low temperatures will be significantly cooler than yesterday.
Meanwhile, dry low-level easterly flow to the south of high pressure centered across Ontario has resulted in another dry airmass day, although with temps mainly in the 50s as of early afternoon.
A warming and drying trend is forecast through late week as high pressure builds over California.
Cooler than normal temperatures will persist this week.
Cooler temperatures in place today as high pressure builds into the forecast area.
Lowering Panhandle pressure in relation to Florida high pressure will produce a more moderate onshore wind.
A short wave will drive a cold front southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours. /15/ The cold front will continue to sag south through the region late Tuesday.
The force is strong with this high pressure as it refuses to relinquish its grasp over South Florida. featuring a series of mid-latitude troughs primarily affecting areas from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states and New England. Downstream mid tropospheric ridging should prevail through the lower latitudes, while encompassing the southern Gulf of Mexico and Greater Antilles.
140 PM PDT Mon May 4 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across southern California this week.
239 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight.
1236 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 (Today and tonight) The lower atmosphere is nearly saturated early this morning over much of the western half of Oklahoma.
A building upper ridge will be accompanied by clear skies, light winds, and near-normal temperatures today.
436 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region late today and Tuesday.
Additional severe storms will develop this afternoon/evening along the cold front in southeast Kansas, but these will remain just south of the forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon and evening will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s, thanks to the showers, widespread clouds, and CAA behind the cold front. Overnight and into tomorrow, cooler and drier air will begin to move in behind a secondary cold front. After morning lows in the upper 40s, temperatures will warm up into the low 70s for most.
230 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 Northwest winds will bring a chilly night with below freezing temperatures expected overnight.
Patchy fog will be possible across interior sections the next few nights given the high pressure in place and light winds, mainly north of I-4.
1204 PM MDT Mon May 4 2020 A few showers are lingering across the higher terrain in the Uintas and along the Divide early this morning. Cooler air advecting into the region in the wake of this trough will provide a relief in above normal heat across much of the CWA today. Northern zones will experience the greatest dip, with temperatures dropping ~10 degrees cooler than what was experienced yesterday. Weaker winds will remain in the short term forecast, as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west overnight. However, ridging will bump high temperatures back above normal for Tuesday afternoon. Ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday night, shifting winds to the west, southwest.
346 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 Weather impacts over the next 7 days will generally be on the lower end of the spectrum. An upper level analysis across the country shows a strong trough exiting the northeastern CONUS, weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and weak trough in the mid west. This mid western trough will bring a cold front to the region late tomorrow.
An upper level ridge will keep conditions dry through the period. Lows tonight will remain in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.
With the northerly flow in place, tomorrow will finally see cooler temps that will be more spring like. As the high pressure slides eastward, winds return to southerly flow which will help maintain overnight lows in the 40s.
A mid level ridge starts to break down and move off to the east with weak high pressure remaining over the area. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 60s.
Winds will remain elevated this afternoon as a trough exits the region and high pressure builds in. Expect cold temperatures tomorrow morning with light winds and clear skies under high pressure ridging. A freeze warning has been issued for the Upper Snake river plain and a frost advisory (temperatures 32 to 36) for the Lower Snake plain and the Eastern Magic valley.
Once this moves east this afternoon, midlevel ridging will begin to build out west, putting an end to showers and allowing skies to clear out tonight into Tuesday.
241 PM MDT Mon May 4 2020 Trough that brought some showers to the southern half of the CWA this morning has exited to the east. This will bring some showers across our eastern zones, and there may be some rain/snow showers over the high country of the Beartooths as well from mid-level convergence.