Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the area is behind a front to he south and high pressure is just to the north, an lack of downslope - today's highs are again going to be limited to the low to mid 80s in most area; perhaps a few degrees warmer in the red hills region. An 850 mb ridge axis is centered over the area Monday morning with northwest flow aloft. There may be lingering showers Monday morning and residual mid level clouds around the area through the day monday, relegating temperatures to around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average.
431 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The main challenge in the short term is determining where the low stratus will set up today, and how quickly it will dissipate. Meanwhile, the chance for showers continues to wane as high pressure and subsidence looks to outweigh any destabilization that takes place and should keep the clouds shallow as opposed to deeper convection and showers. High pressure will remain in place for the first half of the week, and them we'll see southerly winds develop by mid week. This will bring warmer and more humid air back across the region along with small chances for showers and thunderstorms for the latter half of the week.
An offshore upper trough will shift onshore by tonight. Low level onshore flow will support morning clouds with a cooler start to the day.
Surface analysis this morning shows an area of low pressure centered over northwestern OH, with a trailing cold front draped across east- central KY. Aloft, broad troughing will remain in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the upper trough axis located to our west, extending through the MS Valley. May see some isolated to scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon as subtle waves of energy move through the upper trough. Tonight, temperatures will dip into the lower to mid 60s under partly clear skies. Full-latitude upper trof over the eastern CONUS will dominate through the week. Will start off unsettled as the trof axis is to our west on Monday, with a sfc cold front finally pushing in late in the day.
A mid and upper level trof currently over east Texas will slowly advance east across the forecast area today. The two factors that brought the rains was a weak surface boundary that moved in from the northwest and a upper level trof that once storms started supported this activity. across the lakes region in southeast Texas and into central Louisiana they are currently hovering in the upper 60s to near 70 which is about five to eight degrees cooler/drier than yesterday. Tomorrow will see more of the same but it will be a bit warmer and drier.
BT Early morning satellite imagery shows a high amplitude ridge over the northern Rockies with cooler northerly flow over the north central U. There are some high clouds spilling over the ridge in our area but conditions are dry.
with high pressure centered over southern CA/AZ and ridging extending north into Canada. Another upper trough was seen off the coast of the Pacific northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over ND as it slowly builds south through the plains. Surface ridging will remain over the area on Monday with a cooler and drier airmass minimizing any instability.
1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The cold front that brought scattered showers and storms to the are yesterday continues its slow southeastward movement and slicing through south central KS and extending northeast toward northeast KS. Several waves are progged to continue to move through the weak upper ridge toward the end of the week which supports rather unsettled conditions and an increased risk of seeing storms, perhaps severe, particularly late week.
A cold front will pass through the region Monday bringing the next chance of mountain showers along with locally breezy conditions. Dry and warm weather will prevail beyond Monday before another cold front brings more wind to the region.
222 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 We've worked our way to the west side of a positively tilted h5 trough that extends from Hudson Bay southwest into east TX. It will be a little warmer in MN, so STC and MSP lows look very safe both mornings. Given the cool morning temperatures expected, anywhere near a warmer body of water will see fog develop both nights, but dryness of the atmosphere looks to keep any widespread fog from occurring.
1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 After a start with temperatures in the mid 50s, continued cooler temperatures with isolated showers are what's in store for today. Wind direction will shift towards an east/northeasterly direction overnight, with temperatures dropping down into the lower 50s.
147 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure remains sandwiched over the region between two frontal boundaries.
This is in spite of another round of showers and thunderstorms set to move through Monday in association with a weak cold front currently stretching from the Great Lakes to central Missouri. Monday's highs will be mainly in the low to mid 80s, though increasing cloud cover and showers could hold some into the upper 70s. An upper level trough will remain in place over the region to begin the period Monday night. A weak cold front will be draped from Michigan southwest through the Lower Ohio Valley.
1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure slowly builds in today from the west. Low pressure to the east will cause the Northland to be pinched in a pressure gradient that will keep winds elevated above normal speeds today and out of the north. Skies should be mostly sunny across Minnesota, but due to flow off of Lake Superior and the lingering low pressure system to the east - Wisconsin should have a fairly cloudy day with some potential for lingering shower activity with light QPF amounts (<0. Monday should be another cool, but dry day under high pressure.
As the cyclone moves even further away, we will come under a weak pressure pattern by Monday morning. The first half of the week ahead will be marked by an upper trough digging unseasonably far south through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the far northern Gulf.
136 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure aloft over the Southwest will keep the weather quite warm inland early this week, while an eddy circulation and cool ocean waters keep the coast cooler with areas of low clouds and fog. The high pressure aloft will be replaced by a trough midweek, which will spread the cooling farther inland.
1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure will move into the area today with generally mostly clear skies and mild temperatures for early August. Look for a cool night tonight with lows in the lower to middle 50s, or 12 to 14 degrees below normal. The week ahead starts dry and mild, then remains mild through the midweek but wet at times, before ending somewhat warmer and more humid.
325 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Several chances for showers over the next couple of days and then again for the weekend - Cooler than normal temperatures through mid week then warming - Several chances for rain over the next couple of days and then again for the weekend This evening there will be some showers and thunderstorms around.
239 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 (Today and Tonight) Still expecting convection to develop across the higher terrain to our northwest this afternoon and evening, with this activity moving southeast in northwest flow aloft overnight. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the Big Country and in the upper 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. (Monday Night through Sunday) Hot and dry conditions are forecast across West Central Texas through this weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the area. No rain is forecast through Sunday as the upper level ridge remains entrenched across the region.
As high pressure weakens in response to an area of low pressure moving into the west coast we can expected to see decreasing temperatures through the week. Otherwise, high pressure that had a firm grip on the southwest states will continue to weaken as a trough moves into the west coast.
Have included either VCSH or VCTS at the western Arkansas sites through this afternoon as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of a cold front moving through the region. /Issued 1023 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ This morning, we a have cold front that extends from near Jay to near Okemah.
North of the front, temperatures climbing into the upper 80s/near 90 and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s later this afternoon.
The forecast area is located between high pressure aloft to the east and an upper level trough off the coast, leaving eastern WA/OR under a mostly dry southwest flow. The offshore trough will move inland tonight and dampen into a westerly flow as it travels east of the Cascades on Monday. Several days ago, models showed a dry cold front on Monday bringing gusty winds across the Columbia Basin, but the front is looking weak with less wind concerns. Despite little change in the synoptic pattern since yesterday with heights similar to 24 hours ago, temperatures today across eastern WA and northeast OR will be several degrees warmer. Yesterday, there was a large thick cirrus band that kept temperatures a little cooler than forecast.
1244 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure will slowly weaken tonight and Monday before a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Much cooler weather will be the rule this week with below seasonal normal temperatures.
Mostly dry conditions are then in store for South Texas tonight through Monday night as an upper level long wave trough continues to exit the region to the east while high pressure builds in from behind. Subsidence from the high and drier air aloft will aid in limiting rain chances through the period, but cannot rule out a stray shower/storm from developing along the sea breeze again on Monday. Near normal temperatures will continue tonight through Monday night, with lows ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, and highs on Monday in the 90s to near 100.
The upper high will be centered over ern AZ/wrn NM by late Monday with the upper ridge extending nwd along the spine of the Rockies. An impulse passing through the ridge is expected to spawn scattered tstms along the higher terrain of Colo and nrn NM Monday afternoon. Low-lvl instability will be seomwhat lacking due to cooler, drier easterly flow at the surface, but some positive theta-e advection around 850mb is progged to accompany a modest LLJ, and will possibly be sufficient for some of the convection to reach the western South Plains overnight, although the coverage and strength of the activity should be waning.
An upper trough just off the coast will start to move inland by tonight, possibly resulting in some rain along the coast and over the Olympic Peninsula. This prospect for rain will spread further inland Monday as the trough crosses the area.
Low level moisture hanging on with dew points in the lower to mid 50s north of Denver. Monday looks much like today, though a little warmer and drier so the storm intensity might be more marginal again with a bit less of a hail threat and a little more wind threat. Forecast highs are 3-5 degrees warmer and a little above guidance, which looks good.
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak boundary or trough from the nearshore waters south of Cameron acrs the lower Atchafalaya Basin, with convection confined along and to the east of this feature. A mid and upper level trof currently over east Texas will slowly advance east across the forecast area today. The two factors that brought the rains was a weak surface boundary that moved in from the northwest and a upper level trof that once storms started supported this activity. across the lakes region in southeast Texas and into central Louisiana they are currently hovering in the upper 60s to near 70 which is about five to eight degrees cooler/drier than yesterday. Tomorrow will see more of the same but it will be a bit warmer and drier.
1023 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 This morning, we a have cold front that extends from near Jay to near Okemah.
233 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The swirl of low pressure seen over central MO will make its way toward and ultimately across the PAH FA during the next 24 to 48 hours. Showers and some thunder here and there will be assisted diurnally with heating, but the low's energy alone/presence will keep the pop going thru the night as well, as it translates west to east across the area tonight and into/thru the day tmrw. Another convective flare-up along/east of the best boundary layer moisture axis can be expected again tmrw pm with heating, as a 2ndary axis of within trof energy rounds the base of the mean long wave late in the day. Pops ultimately wane at night (Mon night) with loss of diurnal assistance and the eventual eastward departure of the trof energy.
The high pressure system locked in over the region this past week will break down thanks to a dry cold front that will pass through the region Monday.
1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The main challenge in the short term is determining where the low stratus will set up today, and how quickly it will dissipate. Meanwhile, the chance for showers continues to wane as high pressure and subsidence looks to outweigh any destabilization that takes place and should keep the clouds shallow as opposed to deeper convection and showers. High pressure will remain in place for the first half of the week, and them we'll see southerly winds develop by mid week. This will bring warmer and more humid air back across the region along with small chances for showers and thunderstorms for the latter half of the week.
1132 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Dakotas, with nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from the lee of the northern Rockies through southern portions of the central Plains. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis still in place across the northern Rockies to the Great Basin region. Pleasantly mild and mainly dry weather will continue today and through much of Monday as ridge remains west of the area and gradually weakens on Monday. Ridge weakens later on Monday as a trough over southwest Canada slides east-southeast across the international border and into the northern Plains late Monday into midweek. South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front will bring increasing moisture and moderate instability.
130 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 As ridge of high pressure has already settled over Middle Tennessee, but a strong upper trough remains situated to our west.
Upper level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this morning depicts a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes south into the southern plains. The atmosphere will continue to heat up today with increasing moisture in the lower levels. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 69 88 67 / 30 40 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 67 85 66 / 40 40 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 67 84 65 / 30 30 30 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 82 64 81 63 / 50 60 30 40 10.
This Evening Through Sunday Sharp upper ridge remains over Rockies with weak waves sliding down front of ridge over High Plains. Temperatures will warm Monday with ridge in place even with neutral advection on southeast flow. Models continue different solutions, with GFS and Canadian showing a stronger trof/cutoff low that moves into the upper Midwest while ECMWF has just a weak trof and rebounds the upper ridge. Associated surface trof crosses the forecast area Tue with the cold front following late Tues. Another stronger system and cold front moves through Fri with a chance of thunderstorms.
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak area of high pressure over the area is sandwiched between two weak frontal boundaries. While temps will still climb in the the mid/upper 80s today, dew points will only climb in to the low to mid 60s. Dry conditions should continue tonight as weak high pressure moves across the region. Stayed close to the blends, that kept them on the warmer side in the upper 80s to around 90.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s. We could again see some surface heating cu clouds with similar high temperatures to today in the mid 70s east to the lower 80s west.
Starting off with an amplified upper level trough axis from the Great Lakes southward to off the upper Texas coast. Considering this along with the passage of mid level impulses in the higher level southwest flow, just ahead of the mean trough position and afternoon instability, forecasters anticipate the development of isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms. The upper trough migrates slowly eastward with its axis more aligned over the MS River Valley Monday. Little change in lows tonight, ranging in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Monday range in the lower to mid 90s interior to near 90 along the beaches.
For tomorrow, Isaias will be a little bit closer and we can't rule out a few outer rain bands possibly rotating through the area east of Tallahassee so rain chances hover around 30 to 50% with the highest values closer to the I-75 corridor. We can also expect breezy conditions in the areas with the highest rain chances due to Isaias influence.
925 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure aloft over the Southwest will keep the weather quite warm inland early this week, while an eddy circulation and cool ocean waters keep the coast cooler with areas of low clouds and fog. The high pressure aloft will be replaced by a trough midweek, which will spread the cooling farther inland. It will be another hot day, but only the lower desert retains an excessive heat warning for today.
Later tonight into early Mon morning, scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected to shift slightly eastward into SW OK but shouldn't make it much further as CAA increases across central OK thanks to yet another, welcomed cold front.
While it's not considerably cooler, temperatures are in the mid 80s and dewpoints are in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Nested NAM still the most aggressive with developing weak convection, generally in the highlands east of I-15 late this afternoon and early evening. Models have trended a few degrees cooler for Monday, thus believe that Heat Advisory can expire tonight with no extension into tomorrow.
305 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon near and behind a passing surface cold front. Some additional shower development will remain possible overnight as a 500 mb trough axis approaches from the northwest. We went with the NBM for lows with most areas falling into the lower 60s. Highs should range from the middle 70s across portions of central Missouri to the lower 80s around Joplin and Pineville.
257 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The cold front has shifted through the area and the broad line of showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms has shifted into eastern WI. Upper level troughing dominates this period with SCT-BKN cumulus in ~2kft layer of instability under the mid-level cap. Low-level ridging will provide at least a few thousand feet of light winds to allow for the possibility of valley fog for Tue/Wed mornings. This period is characterized by a bit more zonal-to-ridging pattern as the longwave amplitude across North America decrease.
1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 North-northwest flow aloft prevailed over the CWA with a upper ridge from the Northern Rockies to the Desert Southwest and a upper trough from the Western Great Lakes to the TX Gulf Coast. A weak disturbance moving southeast across the high plains was generating isolated convection over the NE Panhandle. Similar to recent days, convection will initiate over the higher terrain and intensify while moving southeast onto the high plains. Convective initiation will occur over the higher terrain and move southeast. Upper ridge rebuilds from the Four Corners to the Northern Rockies mid-week, then slowly translates east into the Great Plains by the end of the week.
North to northwest flow aloft will continue as upper ridging builds to the west of our area. The upper level low. will fill a bit as the upper level ridge over the intermountain west begins to build.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the interior west will maintain hot and dry conditions through Monday. A strong ridge remains in place over Utah this morning, with record warmth expected once again for many areas. Isolated weak high-based convection should initiate off the higher terrain again this afternoon.
335 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Latest sfc analysis shows a rather diffuse front lying along the coast this afternoon, while high pressure remains centered over the cntl/wrn Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level trof axis in place just west of the forecast area.
The less cellular/ more dense cloud cover moving into northeast IA from Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota should move south intact overnight as an upper low drops into the upper Great Lakes. The upper low over the Great Lakes will be slow to move out while in the mean time, Tropical Storm Isaias lifts north along the eastern CONUS coast.
322 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 A broad upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will persist through the short term. Increased cloud cover and convection on Monday will keep temperatures notably cooler over much of northern and eastern Georgia. being the farthest from the storm's influence can expect to warm back into the low mid 90s.
This is limiting convection to low-topped showers that line up parallel with the low-level wind field. Nonetheless, as winds back around and become more westerly or a little south of west (favorably parallel to the Lower Keys), will be watching for cloud line development. The first half of the week ahead will be marked by an upper trough digging unseasonably far south through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the far northern Gulf.
355 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Weak high pressure will quickly slide across the region overnight. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and cross the area Monday night. High pressure will then build in for mid week. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Energy moving through a mid level trough axis to our west will push into the region on Monday. This will also cause a weak cold front to approach the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday with lows back into the lower to mid 60s.
247 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The surface cold front/wind shift line has passed through much of the CWA associated with a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and cooler air was filtering in behind the front, but a deck of low clouds further north is poised to drop south over the area. Spotty diurnally enhanced convection will fade later this evening as the cold front continues to progress southeastward. Cooler and drier air filtering into the area will help push lows into the 50s in most areas overnight. 2) Warmer temperatures return for the weekend, along with chances of precipitation.
256 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Temperatures will remain below early August climo through early this week within the northerly flow regime on the back side of the eastern CONUS longwave upper trof.
204 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, with temperatures this afternoon expected to top out close to yesterday, with highs ranging from the middle 90s to around 100 degrees for most (cooler in the mountains, hotter through the Rio Grande Valley). There remains a decent spread on model guidance for afternoon temperatures Monday, but have continued to trend warmer given latest trends and maintained above normal temperatures for Monday afternoon in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Rain chances Monday afternoon and evening will generally be confined to the higher terrain, though any lingering boundaries from prior convection may act as a focus for diurnally driven storms elsewhere.