Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN US TODAY AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MESSY WITH EMBEDDED MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. WYOMING WILL BE IN THE NW SECTOR OF THE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUN NT. AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TOWARD MON MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS. AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WAS ENJOYING SOMEWHAT MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY, BUT SEASONABLY HOT, AFTERNOONS, AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY.
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA.
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85. WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
304 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY MON/TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST NOSES INTO THE AREA.
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.
ONCE AGAIN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE WAS BETTER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.
233 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA HAS SE GA/NE FL IN A MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW.
5 TO 2 INCHES THAT ROTATED TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE RATON MESA REGION. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH HOT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND A ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SATURDAY AFTN/EVE.
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TIED TO MODEST LOW LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 850MB TROUGH AND VARIOUS WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTN AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT FROM THE WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING AS WELL AS DECENT CAPPING SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUT WILL BE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH.
TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD TO WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH IS HIGHEST AND THE RIDGE INFLUENCE IS WEAKER.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH THE WIND SPEED BECOMING GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER SOUTH FL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. AND THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST QPFS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD.
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND COULD EVEN BECOME A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND.
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS. AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE DRY AND STABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ON HUDSON BAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AND DEW PTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST BY THE LOW LEVEL JET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN COUNTIES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL GENERATE A SHORT LIVED 20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING AS WELL AS DECENT CAPPING SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUT WILL BE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FOR TODAY, WILL SEE HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DRYING VEGETATION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S.
THE 31 /ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP AROUND 1 PM EDT WITHIN A LINE OF CU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN 00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTHEAST.
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY.
556 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY MON/TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST NOSES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015 WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NE WY/WRN SD. GOOD THETA E ADVECTION SET UP THE LOW/MID LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. ESPECIALLY AS A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SAT MRNG.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER TO THE SE.
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE RATON MESA REGION.
/ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern U. The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NEAR KOMA AT 06Z WITH SECONDARY WEAK COOL FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR KDLH SSW TO NEAR ST CLOUD AND ABERDEEN. NO COOLING ALOFT DURING THE DAY SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90 FROM I80 SOUTH WITH WARMER HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS ACCOUNTING FOR THE NEAR 90 MARK TODAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
PINE RIDGE. AND W-E ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT FORMED JUST NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN NORTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FED THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SBCAPES INITIALLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS REMAIN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AT THIS HOUR.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUN NT. AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TOWARD MON MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS. AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FOUND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WHERE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S. POPS WERE CARRIED AFTER 00Z FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ONLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH DUE OVERNIGHT TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL NOT BE AS FOCUSED. WHAT'S LEFT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH WEAK FLOW AND A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED 500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. ONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH.
416 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
CURRENTLY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S COMPARED TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED WEST PER LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND AMID THE DEEP CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF THE DEEP LATER RIDGE TO THE WEST. WHICH ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AMID THIS UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS.
A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA. EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WHILE A BROAD L/W TROUGH COVERS THE UPPER MID WEST EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. THE L/W TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME MINOR AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.
A LARGE COMPLEX OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING WEST ARE DOING A SORT OF DO-SI-DO. HAVE GIVEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF AREA THAT PIVOTS AROUND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO WEST.
DECENT 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH LOW LEVEL POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION.
Highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s will spell heat indices maxing out around 100 most afternoons, which is not enough for heat advisory concerns but will still be uncomfortable for those with outdoor plans. Temperatures will be impacted by any clouds/precipitation and also the eventual position of the boundary, but should generally be a bit cooler in the majority of the CWA during the daytime hours.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. 40 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MODERATE NE WINDS.
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 Today - Saturday Night: Primary upper trough entrenched from Hudson Bay into the Mid Atlantic States while elongated dome of high pressure extends from the intermountain region into the Southern Plains. Aided by similar instability parameters and a bit stronger 0-6km shear and fueled by the low-level jet believe there is a better chance for more organized severe thunderstorms over northern MO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUT AN END TO THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF PT CONCEPTION WILL KEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION MON THRU THU AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 31/20-01/03Z.
538 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY. COOLER. BL FLOW PICKS UPS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INITIALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AND SLOWING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
/issued 346 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ Large upper level trough centered across northern Arizona will move quickly east today to the western high plains by this evening. As a result surface dry line/cold front combo will quickly move east this morning toward central Texas. In its wake slightly cooler air and windy to very windy conditions will develop in the mountains with breezy to windy conditions developing in many areas of the plains as the vigorous upper trough passes by to the north. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains Today due to a 40 to 50 knot westerly 700 millibar wind forecast combined with a tight surface pressure gradient. Winds will diminish rapidly by sunset due to nocturnal cooling and passage of the upper trough.
839 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL FAVOR PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED.
934 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF PROGRESSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING OUR DOORSTEP EARLY FRIDAY.
610 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT IT WILL BE INTO THE RIDGE AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT NOW MODELS AGREE ON WITH A LATER TIMING.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon hours.
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT 10 - 15 KNOTS OF WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
Cooler air behind pacific front moves in for Friday.
For tonight, rain chances quickly shift into our southeastern counties, as the upper trough axis moves farther east.
1032 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND THIS HIGH IS LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 66 76 60 / 20 20 50 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 63 77 56 / 10 20 40 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 74 63 76 58 / 10 20 50 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 58 75 57 / 10 10 40 90.
WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BASES WILL DROP AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE MID STATE, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AND FRIDAY THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.