Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP SOUTH TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH HIGHS TODAY ANOTHER THREE TO FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL PLACES WILL BE NEAR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
423 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DAMP AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF IT IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WITH THE COOLER TEMPS IN THE EAST UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER.
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHWEST FROM JOAQUIN THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
Minor grid updates to primarily increase pops and a few locations wind and wind gust amounts as showers fill in an area generally north of I-90 ahead of a robust cold front dropping down from Canada. 60Z TAFS: A cold front dropping down from the north will bring northerly winds which will result in very windy and gusty conditions with some blowing dust at times near recently worked fields as early as 3Z Saturday for locations in the Okanogan valley down to parts of the Columbia Basin and a bit later.
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO EXTENSIVE AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
255 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2015 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE DRY AND LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
60Z TAFS: A cold front dropping down from the north will bring northerly winds which will result in very windy and gusty conditions with some blowing dust at times near recently worked fields as early as 3Z Saturday for locations in the Okanogan valley down to parts of the Columbia Basin and a bit later.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
1217 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Our beautiful run of fall conditions will persist through the weekend with some warmer temperatures expected next work week. This has left a bit of a ridge languishing across the middle of the Nation which has allowed some cool fall conditions to filter south across the Central Plains over the later potion of the past work week. In general, conditions wont change much through the weekend, with most notable changes waiting till well into next work week as the trough over the western CONUS shifts slowly east into the Plains States.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AS A RIDGE MOVES IN OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR DOWN. SAT NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AND A CONSTANT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO SUNDAY.
647 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CREATE WEAK LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
The low level pressure gradient will also weaken today as hurricane Joaquin pulls off to the northeast. Low clouds will remain in place, so we will struggle to reach 70 over most of our area today, with only the coastal counties warming to the low-mid 70s.
326 AM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
346 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUDS AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
330 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER VT AND SOME TEMPS IN SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE DOWN AROUND FREEZING WITH SOME PATCHY FROST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH.
125 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY MOIST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ESPECIALLY THE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE BLOCKING PATTERN UPSTREAM WILL PERSIST.
A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN MOISTURE BACK INTO NY AND PA ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, THE TROF WILL RELAX OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW BREAKS OF SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
225 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER COLORADO. SCATTERED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH ISOLD POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER AND LOWS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE EAST WHERE DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE.
MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE AL/FL BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS UPPER LOW IS SPINNING THE MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP MAINLY OVER SC WITH A DIRECT CONNECTION TO HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
334 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as ridging at the surface and aloft prevails.
429 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 AXIS OF UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM WEST TENNESSEE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR 30N 80W. THIS SHOULD PULL THE LOW CLOUDS EASTWARD WITH IT. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE BATON ROUGE AREA.
142 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
321 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Upstream mid-level trough was entering the Idaho area this morning, lifting a secondary broad trough northeastward into the western high plains later today. Dense cloud cover and possible showers around today will keep highs cool over north central KS in the lower 60s. Lows tonight depend on the extent of cloud cover with the lower 40s over east central areas, while north central KS hovers in the middle 40s. Sunday, An upper low over central CA will slowly dig southeast into southern CA. Minor upper level troughs that round the CA upper low will lift northeast into the central plains.
353 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IS LIFTING MOIST AIR OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND GENERATING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE WILL COME UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE ALREADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAIN IS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
315 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WEST COAST WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE DOWN THE WEST COAST.
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS NE TO E WINDS OF 8 KTS OR LESS MOST AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW- LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES EJECTING NORTH FROM THE BASE OF A CENTRAL ROCKIES TROUGH GENERATING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING ONCE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED WORDING IN LATEST ADVISORY PRODUCT AND MENTIONED THE HIGHER WINDS WITH SHOWERS. H500 BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US MEANDERING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT THE BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN SATURDAY. NO FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
318 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
A wind advisory remains in effect to account for the high wind potential today.
254 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 Little change in the short term is expected with slightly below normal temperatures once again to be witnessed across the region as cyclonic flow around the SE US upper low maintains the northeasterly low level flow. Weak ridge to remain in place across the forecast area into midweek as SE US low advects into the Atlantic while west coast upper low digs. By midweek the 00z GFS is suggesting a scenario closer to the previous runs of the ECM in which the west coast system maintains its closed low as opposed to filling and being kicked into the Central Plains.
150 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER VT AND SOME TEMPS IN SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE DOWN AROUND FREEZING WITH SOME PATCHY FROST.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH TODAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW TRACK WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS TRACKS, THUS THE BETTER SHOWER COVERAGES ARE NOW EXPECTED FROM EASTERN YAKIMA AND KLICKITAT COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY OVER OUR WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS, AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 (Today and tonight) Latest analysis shows a deepening upper trough entering the Four Corners area with a weak ridge over central Texas and an upper low over the Florida Panhandle. Expect the ridge to head eastward as the upper trough continues to shift to the east, as well. With little cloud cover for most of the day, expecting a warm afternoon with highs in the lower 80s north to near 90 south.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE PICS SHOW MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF JOAQUIN BEING DRAWN INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN GA. BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THIS DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS LED ME TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP IN LINE WITH THE WARMER 03/00Z MOS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
337 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH COOL CONDITIONS AND A STIFF NORTHEAST WIND.
305 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 A large upper level trough across the Rockies will move east and weaken through tonight as another much strong upper low digs southward along the West Coast. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop this weekend in this scenario and allow some of the high and mid level moisture from the remains of Marty in the eastern Pacific to head toward the forecast area.
914 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WFO ARX RECEIVED A REPORT OF SLICK ROADS DUE TO SLEET OVER NE IOWA AND THIS AREA OF PCPN MAY REACH PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN'S THIS MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT FREEZING OR BELOW.
601 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015 AT H5 LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER WYOMING AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW OVER WASHINGTON IDAHO WITH RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND PUERTO RICO. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES IT TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ENDING LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS BRING A TROUGH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS WILL DIPPING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
The ridge of high pressure that has sat over the Northern Rockies the past few days, will remain overhead for at least another couple days. Valleys along I-90 in southwest Montana will see pockets of freezing fog this morning through early afternoon. This could produce a few slick spots on local roadways, especially bridges and overpasses, so drive carefully.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1031 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL BRING A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY TO MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.
Low level moisture remains in place ahead of cold front which will push through the area tonight. Rain potential will again spread into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later this morning, as well as far southeast Oklahoma, the former due to a disturbance positioned over southwest Kansas and into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle region and the latter in response to a strong upper level speed maximum in the base of the main upper low. The big question for this morning's forecast is how quickly the low cloudiness will erode. This will also result in forecast low temperatures that are warmer than guidance.
The upper level trough with a closed low currently centered over Wyoming will push into Nebraska today. This will force a cold front through the area and allow rain to overspread the area yet again today. Temperatures this morning are ranging from just above freezing near the MO/IA border and are otherwise in the mid to upper 30s. However, model soundings suggest that there may not be ice crystals in the snow growth zone when temperatures drop below freezing. Also, a few vort maxes will move through the area on the back side of the low.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVING IN TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED AND EFFECTIVELY REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS MAY ALLOW SLIGHTLY LARGER SPREADS TO OCCUR.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CO AND WY. WILL PUT OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WHERE WE HAVE THE OLD WATCH AND EXTEND IT NORTH TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO KICK OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD AND DEEPEN AS IT POSITIONS ITSELF OVER ERN NEB BY LATE AFTN.
/ISSUED 345 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HELPED CREATE ALL THE ICY EXCITEMENT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WAS NOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY AND THEN ON TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL DROP A HEFTY SWATH OF SNOW. SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE CAPROCK.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES MORE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
424 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A POTENT VORT MAX WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SPEEDS EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITHIN THE LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS POTENT FEATURE. EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST THROUGH TODAY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS A SECOND WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND PROVIDES AT LEAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR THIS AREA. MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WRKHGT READINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUPPORTING MARGINAL HIGH WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS AS THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OUT EAST.
300 AM PST MON NOV 30 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE AND OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS. QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE.
/issued 347 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ (Today and Tonight) By this afternoon the upper low that has dominated the western CONUS for most of last week will be centered over the Central Plains and will continue to move to the northeast through tonight.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS.
While the deepest moisture will remain well to the southeast along an old frontal boundary across the Tennessee River Valley and further northwest in closer proximity to the approaching upper low, high chance to likely PoPs are warranted across the board this afternoon. Due to overcast conditions, light rain, and a continued easterly low- level flow, have undercut MAV guidance numbers, with high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 40s. Showers will continue across the area ahead of the low this evening, then will come to an end from southwest to northeast overnight as a mid-level dry slot spreads into the area. Closed upper low will remain W/NW of Illinois on Tuesday, keeping the KILX CWA firmly in the dry slot.
Some of the high res models indicate we could see a better break in the rain showers toward mid to late morning. Will see an increase in showers everywhere Monday afternoon as a warm front lifts north. Many spots south of I-64 can expect about a half an inch through Monday night, with the highest totals expected near the Lake Cumberland region (close to 1 inch) and the lower totals more across central KY. Highs on Monday should recover to the low and mid 50s. 75" is expected Monday night with the highest totals SE and lowest totals NW.
608 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PCPN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR FA AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
329 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING IS SWINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE STATE RIGHT NOW CONTINUING TO BRING SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY OVER YESTERDAYS READINGS AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS AND SKIES CLEAR. THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST DIRECTION. EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS THEN ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.