Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached, though the proximity of the ridge and lack of significant instability should limit this to isolated coverage. The eastern CONUS ridge is expected persist through Saturday, though moisture and instability on the nw periphery of the ridge should result in afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances.
228 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The passage of a cold front this morning will bring cooler and breezy conditions. Accompanying the front and upper low will be a chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington. Today through Saturday Night: Cold front has pushed through eastern WA and is now moving into north ID. This afternoon more widespread showers will develop as the cold core of the upper level low settles across the north. Saturday the trough shifts north and east and the Inland Northwest will see a more westerly flow aloft across the area.
A deep late season upper trough begins to develop and dig southward by the start of the work week.
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 A warm front will move across the state today. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Clouds will increase today as high pressure moves to the east of the region and a warm front moves across the state. Low pressure is expected to develop to the north of the state tonight then move away to the northeast Saturday Morning. A cold front is forecast to slide across CWA on Saturday. The lacking factors are the availability of deep moisture through 700mbs and the low/mid level lapse rates are meager w/around 6.
124 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains Friday will begin to move northeast on Saturday.
/issued 751 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/ The subtropical ridge of high pressure remains oriented over northern Florida, with generally easterly winds in place across the forecast area. High pressure will hold north of the coastal waters through the start of the weekend, with generally easterly flow continuing.
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 After a week, finally today the upper trough that has been to the west of OKlahoma will depart. Nevertheless, instability underneath the core of the low, passing from southeast CO into western Kansas, is expected to be sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the upper trough, Saturday appears to be the day between the last week and the next with the lowest chance for rain or thunder.
312 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 A few showers continue this morning due to wraparound flow from the low that brought the rain and storms yesterday with occasional snow being reported at the highest elevations. While a ridge does build in today, plenty of moisture and daytime heating will allow another day of showers and storms. Intensity and coverage will be somewhat less since the area of low pressure, and forcing it provided, will have shifted well to our east.
157 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture will increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. Models continue to show surface ridging coming on off the Atlantic. This low will track westward through the period. Models still keep the low off the coast during the day Saturday, then move it just off the coast Saturday night. However by Saturday the upper ridge begins breaking down as the low off the coast tracks westward.
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast through today.
1145 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers and thunderstorms developed across the forecast area as a low pressure system moved over the four corners today. By late evening the chance for thunderstorms will quickly end as the low center shifts east. On Friday, a transient high pressure ridge will move overhead. Temperatures will warm a little on Friday as the high pressure moves overhead. The long wave trough will reload along the west coast during the weekend as the next low pressure disturbance develops over southern California. Models show this low weakening as it gradually tracks east early in the work week. As both of these features head east, high pressure will develop along the west coast. Then the west coast ridge will strengthen and move into the Great Basin for warmer and drier conditions midweek and beyond.
Temperatures over the holiday weekend will edge closer to normal for late May with a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert.
315 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Weak low pressure will linger over the area through the weekend.
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast through today.
High temps today will be a degree or so warmer than yesterday but it will be the increase in moisture, as dew points climb from the 50s into the 60s, that will make it feel much more muggy. With the track of the disturbance the highest chances will be near the NY/PA, with decreasing chances across Central NY. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than actual air temps. With our area will being on the outer edge of the 500 mb ridge, any disturbance in the west southwest flow aloft will be enough to capitalize on the afternoon instability (fuel from the moisture and daytime heating) to warrant another 30% chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms.
While the upper low has moved into North Dakota overnight, the cyclonic circulation associated with the low will continue over the eastern half of the forecast area this morning. To the west, an upper trough currently over the Pacific NW will move into Western Montana this afternoon and bring a frontal boundary into Central Montana. The upper trough moves northeast through the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening and into Saskatchewan late Saturday Night.
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
404 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
640 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Made some adjustments, especially to pops, for the rest of tonight as ridging surface/aloft covers the area. The upper flow will transition from the weak short wave ridging to southerly as a deeper trough moves east into the Northern Plains to the southern plains. A short wave with 850hPA closed low will lift northward across minnesota and into Ontario Saturday and saturday night.
553 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Stability provided by the influence of upper ridging off the East Coast should keep the area free of SHRA/TSRA until at least mid- afternoon.
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Current WV imagery indicates energy from a short wave trough is pushing through eastern Washington this morning. Upper low circulations can be seen along the Colorado Front Range and in the Dakotas. Best synoptic lift comes through this afternoon and evening along the trough axis, but models are not showing much moisture coming in with the system.
Couple the high PWATs, with previous rainfall over the past few days and the potential for training. This will occur as the upper level trough moves into western Plains and fires storms along a cold front/dryline across western Kansas. On Saturday, the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and weakens but forces a cold front through the CWA.
552 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 A warm front will move across the state today. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Clouds will increase today as high pressure moves to the east of the region and a warm front moves across the state. Low pressure is expected to develop to the north of the state tonight then move away to the northeast Saturday Morning. A cold front is forecast to slide across CWA on Saturday. The lacking factors are the availability of deep moisture through 700mbs and the low/mid level lapse rates are meager w/around 6.
406 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Partially stacked upper low over southern Colorado this morning will make slow progress northeastward through the day before relocating to central Nebraska by midnight. A weak cold front already pushing south through the area before dawn is forecast to wash out and be replaced by dry and very breezy westerly flow by midday. Despite cyclonic flow aloft all day and cooling mid- level temps, the nearest upper moisture/saturated ascent will reside well north of the region closer to the upper low and its associated cold pocket. As the upper low pivots northeast tonight, a more definitive cold front will drop south ahead of unseasonably cool lows in the lower 50s for much of the Caprock.
338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 An upper low will pass by to our north today.
209 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
1050 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016 The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring cooler and breezy conditions for the Memorial Day weekend, along with a good chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington. Evening update: a cold front is making its push east of the Cascades and a swath of clouds and spotty showers are found along and ahead of it. Cote' 06Z TAFS: A cold front will move into eastern WA/north ID overnight into Friday morning with another round of clouds and maybe some isolated showers over the central and eastern TAF sites. Wind will slacken slightly early tonight but will pick up with the cold front Friday around 12-16Z.
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
334 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 A weak trough of low pressure extending southwestward from Southern California will move into Southern California and strengthen slightly during the weekend.
Still expect to see some convection over our northwest sections, but cooler temperatures today should promote more stability and less risk of strong storms. Elsewhere over the region, wedge of relatively dry air continues in the lower levels from south GA/FL westward across south AL and into south MS.
Models continue to hint that warm front will drift far enough north into Iowa to keep south primed for severe most of evening and potentially overnight as the front lifts north and warm air advection increases along/above the boundary. may reach that mark in some cases if MCS congeals over west/southwest this evening and then becomes rooted into the warm front. Other less affected areas will remain warmer.
409 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Upper low moving across the Rockies this morning will gradually slide east into the central plains through tonight, with an associated increase in synoptic scale forcing during the day today. Instability may be somewhat limited but shear will be enhanced by negative tilt trough passing to our north, thus some severe threatwill be maintained with these storms. Upper low will continue to lift northeast Saturday with mid level heights gradually rising, but moist and unstable airmass will remain in place.
357 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week.
The upper level low remains across the southwestern U. This afternoon a very unstable air mass has developed across the area as temperatures have warmed into the middle 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Theta-E Difference are also on the high side with values of 30 to 40 Kelvin. Also, the high theta-E difference will lead to a damaging wind risk with wind gusts over 60 mph. Storms will continue to be possible on Friday as a wave tracks through the area ahead of the main upper level low. The main upper level low will remain west of the area on Friday and additional storms are expected to develop across western Kansas ahead of the main low. Low level shear appears to remain on the low side which will limit the tornado risk.
A dry cold front is moving through Southwest Idaho, currently located between Mountain Home and Twin Falls. The front will herald cooler temperatures today with highs 5-10 degrees below normal. An upper trough, which extends across the area from British Columbia, is lacking in moisture this far south, but enough to keep isolated showers in the forecast this afternoon east and north of McCall and along the ID/NV border. A dry northwest flow aloft will follow the exiting trough tonight, which will transition to a dry zonal flow on Saturday. After a cool morning, highs on Saturday will be warmer but still slightly below normal.
1002 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 An upper-level trough will amplify as it drops out the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, and eventually the Tennessee Valley this evening. This feature will send a cold front/prefrontal trough across Middle Tennessee and the eastern Tennessee Valley by this evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 37 56 33 / 40 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 34 52 30 / 40 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 34 53 30 / 40 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 31 49 26 / 40 20 0 0.
926 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Aviation section updated Areas of rain will end next few hours as low pressure and trailing cold front over central Indiana moves on to the east. High pressure over the northern plains will build our way by Monday evening.
A few showers cannot be ruled out given the high moisture content. High pressure remains situated off the East Coast this morning while an area of low pressure is moving into the southern Great Lakes Region. A cold front is draped to the sw of the low into the Texas Panhandle. Today the aforementioned ridge will sink south and east while the the low moves into the Great Lakes.
Areas of rain will end next few hours as low pressure and trailing cold front over central Indiana moves on to the east. High pressure over the northern plains will build our way by Monday evening.
Winds will shift from southwest to northwest late tonight into early Monday as a weak cold front pushes through. A cold front will approach from the northwest but will not reach our CWA until late this evening.
A low pressure system off the southern California coast will send moisture northward into southern Utah through the balance of the weekend. High pressure aloft to the west of Utah will bring a dry and stable air mass to northern Utah early in the week, then across the remainder of the region midweek.
VFR conditions will prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today even as a cold front moves into central Texas this afternoon. /issued 405 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb low/trough across southern California/northern Baja CA today will move into the southwest United States/northern Mexico Monday. Low to mid level moisture will increase across south Texas today through tonight as a cold front moves into central TX this afternoon and into south TX this evening before the front stalls.
Secondary band of rain in association with large scale sw trough to follow mid to late morning. This also holds deeper low level thermal troughing farther north and prevents any srn lake MI response either this aftn or evening and will dump prior mention. Ewd bend of this sys along with general poor wrn lake aggregate thermal troughing and scant moisture again heralds a limited lake response if any Wed. Completely dry otherwise by this afternoon/tonight with main focus turning to strong wnw winds in response to deepening Northeast US low pressure system.
and Monday Doppler Radar and METAR observations early this morning show sparse precipitation across northeast Wisconsin ahead of an approaching cold front, with a mix of drizzle and snow mainly across north-central Wisconsin and exiting the region rather quickly. The main story today will be winds as a very tight pressure gradient will exist behind the departing cold front. High pressure will then build in behind the departing low, allowing winds to east tonight and Monday while keeping the weather dry.
The sfc map early this morning shows a large area of high pressure stretching from the Pacific Northwest through western SD/NE. As we progress through the day, it will shift across central NE/KS, while building a ridge across our area. The ridge will be directly overhead at 00Z Monday. Expect slowly diminishing winds west-northwest winds for all but our 2 eastern tier counties that will still be under a stronger pressure gradient as deepening low pressure shifts across eastern Lake Superior and eastern Ontario. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than what we experienced yesterday, but still 6 to 12 degrees above normal for this time of year.
632 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 H5 analysis tonight has a closed low in the vicinity of Santa Barbara California. Good subsidence had set in overnight across western and north central Nebraska behind an exiting cold front. Further southwest, even with warmer H85 temps, lighter winds will limit mixing, so highs in the middle to upper 40s look on track. For tonight: High pressure will move southeast into Missouri and eastern Kansas.
904 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Approaching cold front currently just upstream with pre-frontal boundary across the mid-state. Early this morning, a cold front was located just north of the Ohio river.
Today through Monday Night After a day of record breaking high temps acrs much of AR, a turn to much cooler weather wl commence today. The CDFNT wl cont to drop SWD thru the rest of AR by late this aftn, as an upr lvl trof apchs fm the NW. High pres wl settle over the FA tonight and Mon, with much cooler and drier conds prevailing.
An upper level ridge will continue to push inland over the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Increasing east wind through the Gorge Sunday night and Monday will reduce the fog threat in areas adjacent to the Gorge and along the lower Columbia River.
High pressure moves overhead tonight, with lows dropping into the teens and 20s. Return flow sets up on Monday, which should help boost temps back into the lower 50s, well above normal.
Deepening low pressure will complete a crossing of the region by early afternoon, and drag a cold front through in its wake. The tightening pressure gradient and cold advection with steepening lapse rates will support strengthening wind gusts and snow shower development, especially over the I 80 corridor and ridges. Strong wind gusts will continue with the departure of the low, with the high wind warning and wind advisories ending as Monday progresses. Conditions improvement will then be rapid as high pressure builds.
The trough in the northern branch of the upper flow moves east of the region this morning.
An upper level trough moving across the Northern Plains is dragging a cold front south and currently extends along a line from just south of Wichita Falls to Snyder to Artesia. An upper level low currently off the coast of Southern California will move across Baja California Norte later today, Northwestern Mexico tonight, and into New Mexico on Monday. For today, high temperatures will be a bit cooler across the Hill Country into Central Texas due to an earlier frontal passage while across the South some mixing for breaks in the clouds will allow for some warm up after the frontal passage making for only slightly cooler than yesterday's record heat. However, the front may attempt to push back north into southern parts of our area maintaining warmer temperatures there.
A decent pressure gradient has set up across the area this morning as an expansive high pressure slides southward through the high plains. Although the low level jet and pressure gradient will move eastward as the high approaches the region. Accompanying the high pressure will be relatively dry air compared to the past few days. Dew points will drop into the teens as temps warm into the lower 50s. The higher wind gusts and dry air is forecasted to coincide mainly in east central KS this afternoon causing very high fire danger. Wind speeds will stay out of the north all day before becoming light and variable this evening as the high pressure center moves through. Northeast Kansas gets skimmed by an upper trof from the northwest, as another upper low moves eastward out of the four corners region.
A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, rain, and some high elevation snow to northern Arizona through tonight.
Conditions will again deteriorate tonight as the cold front moves south across the flying area. Widespread VFR conditions expected to develop tomorrow morning in the wake of the cold front. Today's high temperatures should top out in the low to mid 70s near the coast and mid to upper 70s over more interior locations. A weak cold front will bring some spotty light shower activity into the area late this afternoon into the overnight hours. The cold front approaching from the north is projected to move out over the Gulf waters around midnight.
525 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front is moving across the area at this time, and will be through the CWFA by 12-13Z. Some low clouds just behind the front this morning will continue moving to the south-southeast, but the low clouds should dissipate and move out of the area by noon. Went with an operational MAV/MET compromise, which is about 5-7 degrees warmer than the short-range ensemble guidance. High pressure will build overhead tonight. With light wind and a mostly clear sky, should see temperatures drop back below freezing.
911 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Mid to upper level high pressure is centered over the Florida Peninsula and covering much of the Gulf of Mexico.
The 12/12Z upper air sounding from KLCH still shows enough of a cap that there should not be any significant shower activity until when the cold front enters the picture late this afternoon and evening. A few showers cannot be ruled out given the high moisture content. High pressure remains situated off the East Coast this morning while an area of low pressure is moving into the southern Great Lakes Region. A cold front is draped to the sw of the low into the Texas Panhandle. Today the aforementioned ridge will sink south and east while the the low moves into the Great Lakes.
401 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 An upper ridge that was encompassing the eastern two thirds of the country will begin to suppress southward today as a trough rides along the US/Canada border. This trough will send a weak cold front to the northern door step of the forecast area by Sunday evening. An upper level low currently just off the southern California coast is expected to track across the US/Mexico border through early this week. Meanwhile, another upper trough dropping out of Canada will begin to amplify as it dives south across the Great Lakes.
A cold front will impact the terminals this afternoon which will swing winds around initially to the north- northwest and eventually to the east-northeast by the end of the period. /issued 333 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/ Cold front currently draped across srn OK continues to dip sewd this morning, bringing temps in the 50s and very gusty winds to much of OK. However, sly flow will slowly return as the upper low just off of the srn CA coast moves into W TX Monday.