Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will remain over the southeast through early Wednesday then begin retreating to the east as long wave trough axis pushes into the region by late Wednesday night. With the overnight cloud cover tonight and the addition of the higher low-level moisture Thursday morning, expect low temperatures to moderate through the period, with temps in the 40s Wednesday morning and 50s Thursday morning.
- Much cooler temperatures arrives for the end of the week into the weekend. This has separated dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s north of Interstate 70 to the lower 50s over far southern sections of the area. By early Wednesday morning, weak ascent/WAA will lead to scattered light rain showers ahead of an approaching upper trough. The warm front will lift north during Wednesday morning, settling across northern Missouri by the afternoon. The end of the week into the weekend will feature northwest flow aloft, with much cooler temperatures some 5-15 degrees below normal.
1244 AM EST Wed Nov 10 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday, then move off the coast on Thursday.
1022 PM MST Tue Nov 9 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE A batch of mid and high level clouds continues to shift eastward over NM as an upper level trough moves over the Four Corners region this evening. Gusty west-northwest winds will be a concern overnight across mountain tops as the trough moves overhead. LLWS will be possible at KLVS prior to these winds mixing down to the lower elevations on Wednesday on the back side of the system. A cold front arriving tonight will bring isolated to scattered showers to northwest and north central New Mexico. Breezy to windy conditions are forecast for Wednesday with cooler, but still near to slightly above average temperatures.
Watching a cold front moving through KDHT/KGUY by 18Z with winds shifting from southwest to northerly at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times. 20z WV satellite shows zonal flow aloft over the Panhandles with a trough translating eastward over the Rockies, with the base of this feature over AZ. Tonight through Wednesday night, expect surface lee troughing to develop to our west and begin to shift eastward as the AZ upper trough quickly approaches. The westerly downslope surface winds should serve to reduce low level moisture before the northern stream portion of the upper trough helps usher a cold front southward Wednesday morning.
A quiet evening is expected while warmer return southerly low-level flow brings increasing moisture to the area overnight. Increasing cloudiness should keep lows tonight in the low to mid 40s over much of the forecast area. A lead short- wave trough axis will quickly push into the High Plains region by early Wednesday. Ahead of this, patchy drizzle may spread over the area by 12z with widespread showers filling in through the morning and afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent moves overhead in association with a mid-level trough axis.
This is due to increased moisture in the low levels, as well return flow for the coastal stations. An upper level ridge over the region will begin to shift east and flatten out on Wednesday as an upper level trough digs across the central CONUS. The approaching longwave trough in combination with southeasterly flow will gradually increase moisture across the area. Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the period as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front is expected to move through rather quickly on Thursday afternoon, bringing with it a chance for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms.
To the west the cold front will push through NE ND into the valley during the day Thursday with snow developing in its wake as 500mb center slows with the occlusion of the system.
Dry conditions and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend as broad high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. High clouds continued to stream over the rest of the region behind the trough pulling away across the Four Corners and Rockies. The broad ridge over the eastern Pacific will slowly make its way inland the rest of the week. The mid level trough axis had just about cleared our CWA, with fast west to northwest flow aloft pushing mid and high level clouds overhead.
High pressure will linger across the Southeast for one more night. Another mild day is anticipated Wednesday in advance a stronger trough emerging from the Rockies. Highs should again reach the lower 70s. The 5h trough will cross the MS river Thursday along with an attendance cold front.
1105 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 Dry weather will be interrupted by a Thursday night cold front. Dry weather continues Wednesday and into Thursday with ridging the dominant feature. This will also maintain above normal temperature with Thursday's high temperature should rival today's values with deep sly flow ahead of approaching low pressure. That flow will bring a moisture increase as well, and after a dry start to November, rain chances increase later on Thursday as upper jet support/divergence increases ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Though, it appears most of the forecast area should remain dry through at least early Thursday evening, with the exception of far western zones in Ohio, before categorical PoPs overspread the forecast area Thursday night with the passage of a cold front.
High clouds are expected to clear out late tonight or early morning, that will help keep temps a bit warmer tonight with lows in the 40s expected. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 52 68 45 62 / 0 0 80 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 49 69 45 60 / 0 0 70 70 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 49 67 43 59 / 0 0 80 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 47 67 45 58 / 0 0 50 80 10.
High clouds are expected to clear out late tonight or early morning, that will help keep temps a bit warmer tonight with lows in the 40s expected. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 73 52 68 45 / 0 0 0 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 71 49 69 45 / 0 0 0 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 46 70 49 67 43 / 0 0 0 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 71 47 67 45 / 0 0 0 50 80.
515 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Temperatures are nearly identical to the past several mornings (lower to mid 70s) across the island chain despite the passage of a strong backdoor cold front through the Keys this past evening. GOES-East full disk infrared imagery shows quite an impressive display across the Atlantic basin as a hurricane force 954 mb low pressure system just east of Newfoundland drapes a cold front southwestward all the way across the Florida Straits and into the western Gulf of Mexico.
Rain is finally making its way into Middle Tennessee this morning as southerly winds bring in some warmer air from the south. This system moves out quickly this evening as a cold front pushes through the area ushering in winter temperatures once again.
Visibility under a mile or less on automated sensors (which is too high and likely a quarter or less once sunrise occurs) from Langdon to Devils Lake into the higher wind corridor down to the SD/ND border.
825 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 High pressure will be shifting east off of the mid-Atlantic coast and continue to ridge back across the peninsula through tonight as a cold front approaches from the NW. High pressure will remain across the waters through tonight, then a cold front will move through the waters Sunday/Sunday night.
Have issued a wind chill advisory for wind chills up to wind chill warning criteria, but day shift will need to consider a wind chill warning for locations along the Buffalo Ridge tonight.
Weak upper ridging moving through Interior NorCal attm with considerable overrunning higher cloudiness.
Otherwise, a strong cold front will push thru the area today, bringing much colder air and gusty WNW winds. Models are in good agreement with temps expected to remain below freezing across the region despite insolation with 925mb temps around -8C or colder.
High pressure will build into Oklahoma and north Texas today and tonight, bringing brisk north winds today, along with generally clear skies.
A cold front will bring a better chance of showers this evening through late tonight. Drier air will filter back into the region Sunday, with dry and progressively cooler conditions expected through early to mid week as cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region.
425 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 The main concerns in the short term will revolve around a cold front that is moving through the area early this morning and the hazards associated with it. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop quickly as strong CAA will affect the area. This will drop temperatures quickly this morning with all locations moving below freezing by noon. With temperatures dropping so quickly there will be the potential for flash freezing of any wet roads or other surfaces. In addition, winds will be very strong behind the cold front with most locations gusting out of the NW to 30 to 40 mph. Tonight winds will subside somewhat as high pressure resides across the Plains.
The assoicated cold front is moving through the Red River Valley and headed toward the Mid-South. The cold front will race east entering NE AR by mid morning and exiting NE MS by early this evening.
425 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 A dirty ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Great Basin today with dry northwesterly flow persisting across eastern Utah and western Colorado. 700mb temperatures of -4 to -10 degrees C will settle overhead in the wake of yesterday's trough, resulting in daytime highs some 4 to 8 degrees cooler, but even less so across the southern valleys. The high will continue to build on Sunday allowing the dry and quiet weather to persist. Sunday night will see the 700mb high pressure circulation drift east across the Western Slope.
321 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 The main concerns in the short term will revolve around a cold front that is moving through the area early this morning and the hazards associated with it. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop quickly as strong CAA will affect the area. This will drop temperatures quickly this morning with all locations moving below freezing by noon. With temperatures dropping so quickly there will be the potential for flash freezing of any wet roads or other surfaces. In addition, winds will be very strong behind the cold front with most locations gusting out of the NW to 30 to 40 mph. Tonight winds will subside somewhat as high pressure resides across the Plains.
Winds will be breezy today as high pressure tightens the pressure gradient. Skies will remain clear tonight as high pressure across the plains begins to nose its way into the Missouri Ozarks.
223 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 09z surface analysis had 1038mb high pushing the cold front well south and east of the CWA.
/Issued 333 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020/ The upper level trough will lift through TN Valley today and into the Mid Atlantic region by this evening.
302 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 A cold front was analyzed across western/central OK early this morning, with bands of showers currently ongoing across far eastern OK into western AR. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of the boundary have risen around 5-10F over the past several hours, although they'll tumble toward sunrise as the cold front and drier low-level air sweeps east.
This will merge with a cold front today as an upper level trough swings across the region and pushes the cold front through S TX by this afternoon. Rain chances will end from northwest to southeast through this afternoon and evening as drier/cooler air filters across the region behind the cold front. Today's highs will be a bit tricky due to some uncertainty as to when the cooler airmass will begin to filter into S TX and how quickly clouds/rain begin to decrease across the western areas. Despite more sunshine Sunday, highs will be much cooler than today by approximately 10-15 degrees.
Shear values are impressive this morning with SRH in the lowest 3km of over 300m2/s2, but the lack of instability will limit the severe potential today as little in the way of thunderstorm activity is forecast.
An upper level trough moving across the Plains has sent another cold front south into Texas. This new cold front will enter the Hill Country prior to sunrise and then overtake the current front while moving across the remainder of our area by midday.
512 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Moist onshore flow between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and and an approaching CDFNT trailing from IA across northern TX is yielding dense marine sea fog across the coastal waters this morning, VSBYS are starting to lower a bit inland as well, and will continue to monitor this over the next few hours. This WAA regime coupled with active SW flow aloft associated with an upper trof traversing the central CONUS is also aiding in the development of isolated to scattered shower activity. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to again top out in the lower to mid 70s. A clearing sky and much cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front, with temperatures by Sunday morning near seasonal normals and afternoon readings only topping out around the mid 50s.
233 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 Most of the CWA will be dry today as strong subsidence has followed on the heels of Fridays strong cold front, along with a northwest confluent flow ahead of a building ridge to the west. One exception will be light snow in northwest Wyoming where skies have already clouded back over where isentropic lift asociated with an elevated warm front will produce mainly light snow there this morning.
Latest 08z surface analysis indicated a cold front extending from northwest Minnesota to western Iowa. Out ahead of the cold front freezing drizzle was falling and light snow was falling behind the front. The combination of subsidence/greatest pressure rises southwest of the forecast area and a layer of ice crust on top of the recent snow due to freezing drizzle overnight.
Behind the precipitation, there remains patchy blowing snow, and moreso in northeast Nebraska where the snow wasn't crusted over with the freezing drizzle yesterday. The other story this morning has been the very strong cold front that has now moved through the entire forecast area. As expected, temperatures have dropped sharply behind the front into the teens and 20s, and this is likely resulting in wet roads flash freezing across the area compounding travel to some degree. A ridge of high pressure moves in tonight.
A cold front is rapidly progressing across the region this morning, with clearing skies and colder air arriving in its wake. Light rain/snow showers associated with a departing upper tropospheric trough are rapidly departing the area and are on track to shift into Missouri by 11Z. CAA continues throughout the day and night ahead of this ridge and have nudged temperatures towards the lower percentile of the model guidance distribution.
High pressure building over the West Coast will result in dry and mild weather conditions through the weekend.
238 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 A dirty ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Great Basin today with dry northwesterly flow persisting across eastern Utah and western Colorado. 700mb temperatures of -4 to -10 degrees C will settle overhead in the wake of yesterday's trough, resulting in daytime highs some 4 to 8 degrees cooler, but even less so across the southern valleys. The high will continue to build on Sunday allowing the dry and quiet weather to persist. Sunday night will see the 700mb high pressure circulation drift east across the Western Slope.
550 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 The main concerns in the short term will revolve around a cold front that is moving through the area early this morning and the hazards associated with it. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop quickly as strong CAA will affect the area. This will drop temperatures quickly this morning with all locations moving below freezing by noon. With temperatures dropping so quickly there will be the potential for flash freezing of any wet roads or other surfaces. In addition, winds will be very strong behind the cold front with most locations gusting out of the NW to 30 to 40 mph. Tonight winds will subside somewhat as high pressure resides across the Plains.
342 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 A cold front is rapidly progressing across the region this morning, with clearing skies and colder air arriving in its wake. Light rain/snow showers associated with a departing upper tropospheric trough are rapidly departing the area and are on track to shift into Missouri by 11Z. CAA continues throughout the day and night ahead of this ridge and have nudged temperatures towards the lower percentile of the model guidance distribution.
After today, the region will transition into a brief high pressure pattern.
305 AM PST Sat Jan 18 2020 High pressure will provide quieter weather this weekend with periods of mid and high clouds, lighter winds, and temperatures near seasonal averages.
Flat ridge of high pressure will keep things dry through the weekend while allowing for periods of mid and high cloud cover.
Winds from the northeast and east will veer to the southeast by 14Z with the highest winds at SGJ with 10-12 knots and gusts to 15-18 knots. Have VCSH after 06/07Z at all terminal sites except for SGJ as showers move into the area ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday morning. Strong high pressure to our north will move east off the Mid Atlantic coast to our northeast and weaken through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, A low pressure system developing over the western Great Lakes region will bring a cold front into the southeast states Saturday evening.
614 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 A cold front will move across the region late tonight into early Sunday morning. High pressure fora majority of the day today with dry conditions and seasonable, near normal high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A warm front advances into the Carolinas tonight and brings chances for light rain and offshore thunderstorms. A cold front pushes into the area from the west toward Sunday morning with gusty winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest through the day Sunday. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s before cold air advection brings in much cooler weather for the beginning of the work week. Arctic high pressure will be moving into and across the region through the short term period.
517 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 A strong cold front has pushed across the CWA this morning with temperatures falling several degrees as the northwest winds increased. Of note, it stopped snowing in Mobridge around midnight, and their 3 AM observation still suggest blowing snow with visibility below 2SM.
Skies have initially begun to clear out as a cold front pushes through the CWA. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread back into Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas on the backside of the exiting upper low. /Issued 302 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/ A cold front was analyzed across western/central OK early this morning, with bands of showers currently ongoing across far eastern OK into western AR. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of the boundary have risen around 5-10F over the past several hours, although they'll tumble toward sunrise as the cold front and drier low-level air sweeps east.
327 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 09z surface analysis had 1038mb high pushing the cold front well south and east of the CWA.
At the surface a high pressure was over far Southwest Colorado. Lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night due to the radiational cooling. During the morning a backdoor cold front will move into the eastern part of the forecast area. The cooler air should remain east of Highway 83.
High pressure to the east this afternoon, will move to the southeast Tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
1105 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Currently - Cold front has moved through the Keys and is now settled south of the islands, over the Florida Straits. This morning's low temperatures fell once again into the lower 70s which is about what they were this time yesterday morning. Likewise dew points remain in the lower to mid 60s. Eyes then turn to the next cold front which will not only bring a period of stronger winds once again, but also a considerable air mass change.
Exception will be in the northwest part of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where a surface trof is expected to shift winds to the north during the morning. Temperatures are expected to be near normal, with lows tonight mainly in the lower- to mid-20s, and highs on Sunday mainly in the upper-40s to lower-50s.
239 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Northwest flow aloft this afternoon as the recently departed upper low continues to push east across the eastern CONUS.
Cool temperatures are expected over the next few days in the aftermath of a strong upper level low pressure system that brought mixed precipitation to the area over the last 24 hours.
Insolation has allowed for some heating in the otherwise non-diurnal temp trend, but even so, afternoon temps today will remain at or below freezing for most areas. Increased 850 hPa flow will continue to wrap around the base of the exiting mid to upper trough Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs Sunday will range from the teens to low 20s, while wind chills will range from the low negatives to single digits.
Cool/breezy conditions behind cold front late this morning.
/issued 540 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ Cold front along an Ozona. Then, a cold front will move across the area as the ongoing cloud cover clears. Winds will be coming from the north at around 10 to 20 MPH as this cold front passes through.
Wintry precipitation is now mainly confined to east-facing ridges as well as areas northeast of US-422. Still expect all remaining precipitation to transition to rain over the next few hours as strong low-level southwest flow continues to push warm air northward, even along the ridges by evening as upslope flow breaks down. Wind gusts of up to 45 MPH are forecast along the ridges, and up to 35 MPH elsewhere. Elected not to hoist a Wind Advisory along the ridges given marginal momentum transport potential as noted on BUFKIT soundings, and inter- office collaboration led to this same conclusion.
Morning temperatures will drop to near seasonal averages in the lower to mid 20s.
The approaching cold front is located in West TN. A couple of short wave features drop south through the mean long wave trough pattern, with little impact other than some clouds.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Arctic high pressure will be over Central and Eastern Montana today and Eastern Montana tonight. The high remains over NE Montana on Sunday. While an upper ridge builds over Western Montana and warmer air starts to move in aloft. Shallow arctic air remains in place which will keep temperatures cold although they will be somewhat warmer.
1243 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 High pressure ridging across the area will continue to weaken as the center shifts east to over the Atlantic and a cold front approaches from the NW.
Gusty northeast winds behind this mornings cold front will diminish around sunset.
1102 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Currently - Cold front has moved through the Keys and is now settled south of the islands, over the Florida Straits. This morning's low temperatures fell once again into the lower 70s which is about what they were this time yesterday morning. Likewise dew points remain in the lower to mid 60s. Eyes then turn to the next cold front which will not only bring a period of stronger winds once again, but also a considerable air mass change.
1250 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Increasing clouds this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Drier air will filter back into the region Sunday, with dry and progressively cooler conditions expected through early to mid week as cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region.
Strong Cold Front To Move Across Central Florida Sunday Night.