Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high cloudiness should begin to thin towards the end of the period as the mid-level flow turns more out of the west and northwest. /issued 352 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front roughly from Houston to Encinal across the southern half of Texas. This front is expected to pass through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley early today, with a nearly zonal flow overhead in the middle layers of the atmosphere initially transitioning to a ridge of high pressure building in from the west during the forecast period.
Cold front will drop southeast of the area by 12z. Much Cooler temperatures today, as readings will struggle to recover into the 40s with persistent cold advection. The bulk of the precipitation will have ended by lunchtime, although lingering rain or snow showers are possible into the late afternoon hours over the southern half of the region until the trough passes. Warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday as winds become southwesterly. The next cold front will cross the area Saturday night, bringing more showers to the region.
Continue to see some lighter rains move across the region as the axis of a broad upper trough is beginning to move into the Wabash Valley. We don't get on the drying side of this trough axis until this afternoon, so would not be surprised to see continued light rain showers through the morning hours. Saturday afternoon another cold front will approach the region from the northwest, bringing in more shower chances, mainly north of the Ohio River during daylight hours. That cold front still looks like it will lay out across the Tennessee Valley for early Easter morning, perhaps making for a wet start across southern Kentucky.
while a weak trough extends westward across southern portions of Indiana and Illinois. Latest radar mosaic shows a few lingering showers associated with the trough primarily south of I-70: however, these will push southeast of the KILX CWA before dawn. Given ample cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the lower 50s. Deepening low pressure will track through the Upper Great Lakes, pulling a trailing cold front through central Illinois on Saturday.
210 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will move southeast across the area late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in from the Midwest tonight and Saturday. The main cold front is forecast to arrive in the Triad from the NW late this afternoon, then move SE across the state this evening. In between the pre- frontal showers and the actual cold front, a clearing trend will allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will build overhead Saturday and Saturday night. An area of high pressure will remain in control across central North Carolina on Saturday before shifting offshore saturday night. Afternoon temperatures should remain at to slightly below normal through the weekend as the high passes over head, keeping temperatures in the upper-60s to lower 70s.
High pressure will bring fair weather Friday. A low pressure system will move east across the northern Great Lakes region Saturday and bring a mix of rain and snow and windy conditions.
Not far behind the dryline, a cold front was located across west central Texas into north Texas. The cold front will then move through the region this evening, bringing a northerly wind shift and cooler air to south central Texas.
This mornings satellite loops shows clear skies across northern Arizona, and a large ridge of high pressure just off the West coast stretching from Oregon to Baja California. Progs are in good agreement showing the ridge to weaken and move eastward across our state by late Saturday.
435 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Latest WPC analysis depicts a weak cell of high pressure between the Florida peninsula and Bermuda, slightly further east compared to yesterday at this time. A low pressure center can be observed sitting over the Carolinas with a cold front extending south southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. Maximum temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 80s, a degree or two above seasonal norms.
The pattern will then shift tonight as a cold front moves through the area.
1241 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 201 PM CDT With the exception of lingering rain showers across far southeast portions of the CWA this afternoon, dry conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves southeastward across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Drier SW return flow behind the departing ridge axis early Friday afternoon combined with daytime mixing should erode the residual clouds by early evening. Cooler than normal temps continue despite a brief warm up to near 50 Saturday. Blustery and rainy conditions are expected Saturday, and colder air follows Saturday's low pressure system.
Strong positive potential vorticity advection in the 500 to 300 hPa layer, combined with ample moisture and surface forcing from an advancing cold front will result in a quick burst of wintry precipitation.
The upper ridge that brought the mild weather yesterday will remain in control today. If the high clouds are thick enough, temperatures may be slightly lower than yesterday. An upper trough will shift through the area Saturday. The trough will serve to lower temperatures slightly over the weekend with a bit more of a marine push into the coast and Umpqua Basin.
For those looking for promising warmer days ahead, the forecast falls closer to a pessimistic outlook. Weather-wise, the next round of light precipitation is anticipated late tonight into Saturday morning as strong WAA ahead of an approaching cold front generates scattered showers. The cold front will clear most areas by midday, with temperatures remaining steady or slowly falling.
327 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 06Z surface data has high pressure in the Plains with a storm system developing in the northern Rockies. As forcing increases precipitation will break out ahead of the cold front. The cold front is expected to enter the far northwest area right around sunrise Saturday. Saturday: The strong cold front sweeps through the area in the morning, shifting the mostly pre-frontal rain east of the region by mid morning following trends of the slightly faster models. High temperatures were kept in the lower 50s south, while the north may see a non-diurnal trend with morning highs in the lower 40s as cold air advection sets in by late morning.
353 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will move southeast across the area late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in from the Midwest tonight and Saturday. The main cold front is forecast to arrive in the Triad from the NW late this afternoon, then move SE across the state this evening. In between the pre- frontal showers and the actual cold front, a clearing trend will allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will build overhead Saturday and Saturday night.
Low pressure was over New England as an upper trough was moving across the upper midwest and western great lakes. High pressure over the plains will bring a period of dry weather by tonight. Then a cold front will bring showers our way by Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm well into the mid to upper 50s today, before the low to our north moves southeast across the Dakotas, dragging a cold front across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Relative humidities will drop back into the lower 30s by the afternoon, as wind speeds increase once again behind the passing front.
404 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will approach the area from the west today and pass through tonight. High pressure will pass through from the west on Saturday.
409 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Predom dry cold front is currently making its way ewd thru the cntrl TN Valley this early Fri morning, with little fanfare to show for it other than some lingering winds out of the NW near 10-15MPH with occasional higher gusts. The sfc front should continue its track to the E later this morning, as a strong dome of high pressure out of the srn/mid Plains takes aim on the Midwest/TN Valley Regions. High pressure will continue to exit the area to the E going into the first half of the weekend period, as a longwave upper trough axis moves ewd across the Atlantic Coast and into the Atlantic waters.
The minimal change made to the forecast at 6:30am was to add a snow mention at warmer temperatures. Cold front will drop southeast of the area by 12z. Much Cooler temperatures today, as readings will struggle to recover into the 40s with persistent cold advection. The bulk of the precipitation will have ended by lunchtime, although lingering rain or snow showers are possible into the late afternoon hours over the southern half of the region until the trough passes. Warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday as winds become southwesterly. The next cold front will cross the area Saturday night, bringing more showers to the region.
There should be a swath of 6+ inches of snow and the higher 8-12" may occur over a narrower zone. expect high pressure to build in with cooler temperatures.
High-res models have delayed the development a few hours and the highest chance of restrictions are at PVW. /issued 252 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ An upper level trough was pulling away from us this afternoon, causing storminess for the MS Valley, and leaving us with cool northwesterly flow.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: ***Winter weather makes a return to northeast Montana beginning tonight*** The large low pressure system anchored over the Hudson Bay region and its low pressure trough extension through northeast Montana will be the driving force for a return to winter weather conditions across the area over the next few days at least.
Surface ridging and a dry nw flow aloft should lead to a very nice weekend.
Its trailing cold front introduces showers along/ahead of its boundary into our FA Sat pm-night, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch QPF anticipated mainly along/south of the Ohio river.
Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the mid 30s, before crashing into the low teens this evening. The lower elevations along highway 2, to Columbia Falls can expect anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of snow. Saturday will remain showery and cool, with temperatures topping out in the upper 30s to mid 40s in western Montana, and low 50s in the lower elevations of north-central Idaho.
454 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will move east of the area this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure with cooler and drier conditions will build in for the start of the weekend.
High pressure will build over the region for the remainder of the week supporting a gradual steady warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week. Early this morning, strong high pressure aloft was building just off the California coast, giving dry northwest flow aloft into Arizona as seen by the latest 00z plot and raob data. For today through Saturday, high pressure aloft will shift eastward and inland allowing 500mb heights to climb over 580DM across southern Arizona. As such high temperatures across the lower deserts will rise into the low to mid 90s, with the warmest temps over portions of far southeast California. Despite an increase in high clouds moving through the ridge on Saturday, Phoenix should still see a high approaching 92 degrees.
358 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Out with the cold front and in with a reinforcing boundary this morning.
A lee side low pressure area develops this afternoon and shifts farther east over the plains late in the day. Gusty, westerly winds kick in a bit later for the Colorado Springs and Pueblo areas with the low pressure center overhead until later in the afternoon. Westerly winds will decrease at the lower elevations tonight, but could remain windy in the mountains overnight.
High temperatures will only manage to make it into the teens to perhaps the mid 20s along much of the Canadian border where the highest snowfall amounts are expected, but into the 40s further south. This overall pattern will not change much as the low pressure will still be locked over the Hudson Bay region.
305 AM MDT Fri Mar 30 2018 The more direct Northwest flow aloft will be backing slightly to the West as the Left Coast ridge flattens and the downstream trough swings eastward. This in turn means more stable conditions and the possibility of mixing warmer air downward. Snow should accumulate a bit better after sunset but without cold air mixing into the equation expect but only the high peaks of the Park Range should see anything significant.
/issued 249 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ High pressure is beginning to be pushed to the east ahead of an approaching trough, and its associated cold front. There is also a 500mb ridge that is pushing east as well. The incoming trough is not particularly strong as it comes into South Florida Friday night, as the main low is well to the northeast, centered northeast of Maine by 00z Saturday. With most of the energy from the trough being dragged away from the area, the chances for any thunderstorms for our area currently looks slim to none.
500 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Hudson Bay through the cntrl CONUS resulting in cyclonic wsw flow through the nrn Great Lakes. Any lingering clouds over the north supported by onshore flow of colder air with -12C 850 mb temps will dissipate this evening as sfc ridging and drier air move into the area, per upstream vis loop trends. Tonight, favorable radiational cooling conditions until clouds increase over the west late will still allow temps to drop toward the lower end of guidance with readings into the lower teens inland west to around 20 along the Great Lakes.
401 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Today and tonight: The actual surface cold front that is the last remnant of the system that brought all the active weather to the region in the past few days is finally getting ready to clear south of the region currently. Temperatures will be a little cooler than average today with north to northwest breezes, but I suppose nobody will be complaining about highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. North winds will diminish quite a bit tonight as the ridge of high pressure at the surface passes over the Lower MS Valley and relaxes the pressure gradient quite a bit.
1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Post-frontal stratus has been eroding today as a trough to the west is kicking off some light snow/rain showers in western Nebraska, but much of this precipitation will fall apart as it moves east as support dwindles.
However a cold front moving up the Ohio Valley Saturday will bring another round of showers Saturday into Saturday night.
Today, a lee trough will develop and strengthen across eastern Colorado, resulting in breezy to windy southwesterly winds. The downslope component will aid in warming and went with the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures. Cold front will move through during the overnight hours with winds becoming northerly after 06z and northeasterly after 12z Saturday morning. Saturday will be partly sunny and cooler with high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s in southwest Nebraska to the upper 50s in Greeley/Wichita counties in northwest Kansas.
Plenty of sunshine today will allow temperatures to climb a little, reaching the low to mid 70s today. Not quite as cool tonight, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
659 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will approach the area from the west today and pass through tonight. High pressure will pass through from the west on Saturday.
230 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Continue to see some lighter rains move across the region as the axis of a broad upper trough is beginning to move into the Wabash Valley. We don't get on the drying side of this trough axis until this afternoon, so would not be surprised to see continued light rain showers through the morning hours. Saturday afternoon another cold front will approach the region from the northwest, bringing in more shower chances, mainly north of the Ohio River during daylight hours. That cold front still looks like it will lay out across the Tennessee Valley for early Easter morning, perhaps making for a wet start across southern Kentucky.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the middle of the country and then extending across Northern Mexico. At the surface, a cold front was stretched across South Texas from Houston to San Antonio to Eagle Pass. The upper level trough will lift to the northeast during this period and the flow will become northwesterly.
Seasonably warm today with high pressure over the region.
There could be a little freezing drizzle on the back side of the system over the southwest and south central this evening.
Tomorrow, a weak cold front will pass through around sunrise, with veering winds anticipated to occur in the wake of the front. Northerly winds are expected to continue as a dry secondary cold front moves through the region later tonight.
156 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania tonight and early Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure with cooler and drier conditions will build in for the start of the weekend.
1104 PM MDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Water vapor shows long wave trof entrenched across the central CONUS. Distinct short wave trof crossing western/central SD has been responsible for some snow across much of the region today. A much different day expected Friday as a warm front lifts through the western Dakotas, producing gusty southwest winds and much warmer temps. Next clipper system crosses ND Friday night, sweeping a strong cold front through the region Friday evening.
However, a dry slot can be seen poking into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley to our west, and that will help to keep overall rainfall amounts this evening on the lighter side. The rain will diminish overnight as a cold front currently aligned along the IN/KY border pushes through. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower and middle 30s. Strengthening low pressure charging from the Great Lakes to Quebec will swing a cold front through here Saturday night.
Still some cirrus associated with an upper trough moving across Wisconsin today.
Today Through Saturday Night High pressure will build over Arkansas from the Plains today. The high will begin departing to the east tonight, and tranquil weather will not last much longer. A new cold front will approach from the Plains on Saturday, and will be on our doorstep toward evening.
We will see the passage of a couple of cold fronts but conditions do not look favorable for severe thunderstorms. Clouds will linger today as a broad trough shifts across the Midsouth. Clouds will return to the region late Saturday as a weak cold front moves into the area.
This is generally a dry weather pattern for our forecast area with periodic cold frontal passages expected through next Friday.
A strong high pressure ridge will remain in place near the West Coast through Friday, maintaining much above normal temperatures across the region.
A brief period of MVFR ceilings could occur over the Coastal Bend before drier air in the lower levels push into the region. Extended the high risk of rip currents until 12z Friday.
At 00Z, a cold front stretched from northeast to southwest Alabama, with a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms well out ahead of it. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it traverses the southeastern 2/3 of the forecast area on Friday. The front will exit southeast of the area by evening with dry weather on tap for Friday night through Saturday night as high pressure builds in behind the front.
This regime will change little through the period, keeping fairly active weather in place along with generally cooler than normal temperatures. It appears low-level moisture convergence ahead of the approaching surface cold front will be enough to foster a band of showers as the front pushes through on Saturday.
149 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 201 PM CDT With the exception of lingering rain showers across far southeast portions of the CWA this afternoon, dry conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure moves southeastward across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Drier SW return flow behind the departing ridge axis early Friday afternoon combined with daytime mixing should erode the residual clouds by early evening. Cooler than normal temps continue despite a brief warm up to near 50 Saturday. Blustery and rainy conditions are expected Saturday, and colder air follows Saturday's low pressure system.
205 AM MST Fri Mar 30 2018 High pressure will build over the region for the remainder of the week supporting a gradual steady warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week. Early this morning, strong high pressure aloft was building just off the California coast, giving dry northwest flow aloft into Arizona as seen by the latest 00z plot and raob data. For today through Saturday, high pressure aloft will shift eastward and inland allowing 500mb heights to climb over 580DM across southern Arizona. As such high temperatures across the lower deserts will rise into the low to mid 90s, with the warmest temps over portions of far southeast California. Despite an increase in high clouds moving through the ridge on Saturday, Phoenix should still see a high approaching 92 degrees.
Drier air continues to advect eastward as an approaching upper trough axis drives a surface cold front through middle TN into the Great Valley this morning. Pops will slowly taper to below mentionable levels by this afternoon, with slight/chance pops lingering through sunset along the high terrain of TN/NC/VA given weak H85 nwly upsloping.
Winds will become northwesterly as a cold front moves through. In the upper levels a deep trough stretches from the Great Lakes to the Southeast. At the surface a slow moving cold front will move through today. Highs will be in the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front roughly from Houston to Encinal across the southern half of Texas. This front is expected to pass through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley early today, with a nearly zonal flow overhead in the middle layers of the atmosphere initially transitioning to a ridge of high pressure building in from the west during the forecast period.
Temperatures are expected to end up generally in the mid 40s to around 50, a few degrees cooler than previous forecast. Castro 330 AM CDT A period of rain showers will occur late tonight into Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. The main concern is strong and possibly near advisory criteria winds on Saturday, associated with a compact and deepening fast moving low pressure passing to our north that will drag the strong cold front across the area. Given that the peak magnitude LLJ being closest to ground level will happen while cloud cover and likely some precip is also occurring, confidence is not the highest on actually attaining advisory criteria except in an isolated/sporadic fashion perhaps.
High pressure remains in control with above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine today. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the low 80s in the valley with 50s to 60s over the mountains.
In the upper levels a deep trough stretches from the Great Lakes to the Southeast. At the surface a slow moving cold front will move through today. Highs will be in the lower 70s.
Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, especially across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. By early afternoon Saturday, a cold front is expected to enter far northern Oklahoma.
The cold front has pushed south and east of the area the past few hours. Cool and dry northerly flow will be the main story today as high pressure builds in across the Southeastern US. Partly cloudy skies possible this morning as the main upper level trough axis slides through the area behind yesterday's cold front. Clear skies and calm winds tonight will lead to decent radiational cooling, allowing overnight low temperatures to drop into the low 40s for most of Central AL.