Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
215 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure developing over southeast WY, with frontal boundary now south and west of the area. Upper level analysis continues to show large upper trough over the central and eastern US, with ridge off the west coast.
Thursday could have some warmer temperatures and allow some of the snow to change back to rain, but that would be mostly in Kansas and far southern Nebraska.
1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Calmer and warmer weather is expected today and tonight.
Temperatures will be a tad warmer tonight with lows in the low 50s across the north, mid 50s farther south across the Brush Country and upper 50s and low 60s close to the coast.
Dry and quiet conditions will prevail through tomorrow night as surface ridging continues to control the region.
Heights and 500-1000mb thicknesses remain depressed and 850mb temps below normal with the broad longwave trough dominating N. Zonal flow over the South Texas will continue to provide a veil of high cloudiness while at the surface sfc-850mb winds slowly veer E-SE keeping or increasing the low level cloudiness the next 12-36 hours. Lows Thursday night look about 10 degrees warmer only dropping into 60s to near 70 across the lower valley with the return of southeast winds and lower cloud decks.
158 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week.
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure will move across the region tonight. Dry weather Thursday with return flow already setting up on the backside of the high.
357 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region with high pressure located over northeast TX analyzed on surface analysis charts. The combination of breezy winds from the west-northwest and the area squeezed in-between two upper-level troughs have helped keep us from getting much warmer. We'll see highs reach the low to mid 60s throughout most of the County Warning Area. High pressure upstream will build in from the west over the next couple of days which will bring some very nice weather and temperatures that are more typical for this time of year.
313 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 The Arctic air mass which was responsible for bringing freezing temperatures to portions of the forecast area over the past few mornings is finally beginning to modify w/the return of southerly sfc flow. Dry and breezy conditions are expected develop by tomorrow afternoon, especially over the higher terrain out W where elevated to near-critical fire wx conditions could materialize.
An upper-level trough will bring in some moisture at TRI overnight but CIGs should stay VFR. Then, skies quickly clear as high pressure regains control. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 67 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 63 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 36 64 41 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 58 38 69 47 / 10 0 0 20 60.
1111 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Skies will clear this afternoon behind a cold frontal passage.
307 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure building into the area tonight will bring clearing skies.
253 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) After a few colder than normal days, warmer temperatures will move in tonight and Thursday.
High pressure will then briefly build tonight into Thursday with dry conditions.
Expecting stout/gusty south winds to develop Thursday across the region, as cyclogenesis ensues across the High Plains, and a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Strong north winds and much colder temperatures will spread south in wake of the cold front Thursday evening and night, with sub-freezing temperatures likely.
Temperatures will be warming above freezing 1-3 hours with any lingering precipitation slowly transitioning to light rain showers. Below average temperatures continue for the region Wednesday, though the slow warming trend continues, with highs breaching into the low 40s today. That being said, it appears model consensus is for the highly amplified pattern in place to gradually de-amplify.
This will be due to the trough to our north weakening and exiting to the east the building high behind this trough holds back its gradient. The Keys will remain within the northern fringe of the mid level ridging. Moderate ridging aloft and ample energy at the surface will maintain good CAPE and limited inhibition.
939 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A cold front continues to advance through the region, having now advanced south of I-90, as indicated by a wind shift and pressure rises on the surface observations. Temperatures have remained near, or just below freezing across the area, so many sections of roadway have remained wet despite the snow. A cold front will continue to move southward through the region today.
This breeze, combined with very low dewpoints (mainly in the low to mid 30) across the region will make conditions feel more chilly than the actual temperature. Another cool night on tap, likely even cooler by several degrees at most locations than last night. Afternoon max temperatures will be slightly warmer on Thursday, mainly in the low to mid 70s across the entire region.
159 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Scattered clouds will give way to clearing skies behind a cold frontal passage.
A ridge of high pressure currently stretches from northeast Mexico across the local area into the Mid-Atlantic region behind a cold front that lies across Florida and the gulf. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue tonight as the ridge moves overhead. Thursday the ridge will continue east and become centered along the Atlantic coast while weak low pressure organizes in the plains.
An upper level trough is currently digging southeast across western Montana and Idaho and will cause increased development of precipitation this evening across Wyoming, Colorado into portions of western NEbraska. This area is mainly near and south of Highway 2 as a warm front aloft persists over this area during this time.
241 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Broken line of storms along and south of a slow moving cold front across the Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon showing signs of intensification as dynamics coming together in moist and unstable environment.
1142 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A trough digging into and retrograding across the Intermountain West will keep the upper jet. As lobes of energy rotate through the trough each brings in cooler air the thermal gradient tightens and strengthens the jet core. Overnight low temperatures however should warm thanks to the infiltration of warmer air and overnight cloud cover.
There is currently a cold front draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure and sunny skies will be the rule by the late morning and temperatures will warm up into the 60s and low 70s.
Despite ample sunshine, we remain cooler than average with afternoon highs expected to top out in the 60s to near 70.
208 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A broad upper trough currently sits over the Northern and Central CONUS, extending west to east from Washington State to New England and south through the Central High Plains. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid-50s to the low 60s. A cold front will push south through the Central High Plains.
The cold front has almost pushed south of all our counties with Perry showing 58 degree temp and 57 degree dew point with Dixie having a temp of 77 and dew point of 74. The highest threat of strong storms right now is along and south of this front. Cooler temps return today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tonight will be another chilly one with another night of good radiational cooling conditions, but with warm air advection aloft and perhaps enough moisture moving int at the low levels to help slow down that cooling. Temperatures should get warmer as well, and I have mainly 30s and low 40s.
257 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A cold front will exit the region tonight, with some lingering showers expected to persist through tonight in its wake.
A cold front, accompanied by clouds and scattered showers, will pass quickly through central Kentucky early this evening, followed by another dome of cold high pressure building in for the overnight hours. The center of the high will be right over the Blue Grass around dawn, the climatologically coldest time of day, with nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies. Thursday looks like a nice day as the high very slowly edges off to the east.
A weak cut-off low pressure system remains off of the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast resulting in an increase in high level clouds. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures back to the coast through late week along with continued dry conditions.
All this weather was due to a short wave trough from the north that proved stronger than models predicted.
This will allow for good radiational cooling which will drop temps into the upper 30s to the lower 40s for this evening.
Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the lower to mid 40s in most locations. Dewpoints are still in the lower 30s/upper 30s in most locations.
829 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure building into the area tonight will bring clearing skies.
Cooler temperatures are expected in all areas from Thursday through the weekend.
A high pressure ridge extending from east Texas then northeast through the mid-Mississippi valley will maintain north to northeast winds overnight generally below 10 knots. Winds will trend more easterly advancing through Thursday as the ridge moves east of the region. With a very dry airmass in place within the lower and mid levels, VFR will continue with no more than some occasional high cirrus moving through a strong southwesterly flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure currently stretches from northeast Mexico across the local area into the Mid-Atlantic region behind a cold front that lies across Florida and the gulf. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue tonight as the ridge moves overhead. Thursday the ridge will continue east and become centered along the Atlantic coast while weak low pressure organizes in the plains.
/Issued 434 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ High pressure over the plains will continue to move east tonight, with southerly winds to increase ahead of the next frontal boundary.
Have updated PoPs, focusing on radar trends, trying to time the main line of precipitation with the cold front. However; overall snow accumulation should be inhibited by warmer sfc temperature, and the majority of accumulation is still expected to be confined to grassy surfaces. Otherwise, cloud reduction and cold advection will likely result in sub-freezing temperature once again and a Freeze Warning will remain in place for the lowland along and south of I-70.
The lack of precipitation producing lift has also helped to keep temperatures above freezing limiting snow accumulations in the lower elevations. Rest of the highlites will continue for now.
-Kredensor A cold front will exit the region tonight, with some lingering showers expected to persist through tonight in its wake.
434 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure over the plains will continue to move east tonight, with southerly winds to increase ahead of the next frontal boundary.
High pressure will move across the region tonight. Dry weather Thursday with return flow already setting up on the backside of the high.
742 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure building into the area tonight will bring clearing skies.
950 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Chilly high pressure will build into the region tonight.
With high pressure moving into the region tomorrow deep dry mixing will continue with RH values reaching below 25 percent for several hours for portions of north and central Georgia which has a prompted a Fire Danger Statement to be issued for tomorrow. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s will be about 5 degrees cooler than the seasonal normal as temperatures climb throughout the week ahead.
This is along and ahead of a weak cold front pushing south. Weak cold frontal system over southern Saskatchewan and depicted nicely by the RAP13 windshift line and verified well per surface observations and 3 hourly pressure falls along and ahead of the front. A weak cold front that is undergoing frontolysis will move south tonight, and wash out as the baroclinic zone weakens. While the guidance is dry, there will be several fast moving cold fronts that could spread widely scattered showers through the region.
/issued 313 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ The Arctic air mass which was responsible for bringing freezing temperatures to portions of the forecast area over the past few mornings is finally beginning to modify w/the return of southerly sfc flow. Dry and breezy conditions are expected develop by tomorrow afternoon, especially over the higher terrain out W where elevated to near-critical fire wx conditions could materialize.
/issued 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ (Tonight and Thursday) After a few colder than normal days, warmer temperatures will move in tonight and Thursday.
1048 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Mean layer ridging over the Caribbean and broad cyclonic flow over the CONUS supports deep westerlies across the Gulf of Mexico. Surface analysis places a stalled frontal boundary over Florida, while the western Atlantic ridge axis has receded east away from southern Florida. From synopsis, a weak ridge axis near the Keys will settle southeastwards tonight, resulting in mainly light and variable breezes through Thursday.
618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A cold front has shifted just southeast of our forecast area this afternoon with a reinforcing shot of colder air in its wake for our region tonight. Will have low temperatures just below the freezing mark tonight across parts of northeast MO and west central into southwest IL. Light precipitation will develop late tonight into Thursday morning across parts of northeast and central MO and west central IL as a warm front develops over central MO with increasing low-mid level warm air advection.
Afternoon highs will be cooler Thursday but will slowly warm through the weekend.
Temps have already fallen into the lower to middle 40s across parts of West TN and North MS. /issued 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region with high pressure located over northeast TX analyzed on surface analysis charts. The combination of breezy winds from the west-northwest and the area squeezed in-between two upper-level troughs have helped keep us from getting much warmer. We'll see highs reach the low to mid 60s throughout most of the County Warning Area. High pressure upstream will build in from the west over the next couple of days which will bring some very nice weather and temperatures that are more typical for this time of year.
In response, a surface cyclone will deepen over southeast CO tonight, prior to tracking across southern KS on Thursday.
Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region with high pressure located over northeast TX analyzed on surface analysis charts. The combination of breezy winds from the west-northwest and the area squeezed in-between two upper-level troughs have helped keep us from getting much warmer. We'll see highs reach the low to mid 60s throughout most of the County Warning Area. High pressure upstream will build in from the west over the next couple of days which will bring some very nice weather and temperatures that are more typical for this time of year.
However, most guidance builds an area of high pressure to our west east into the area tonight. A similar dry pre-frontal trough axis extends from West Virginia southward into western South Carolina and central Georgia. However, believe that the area of high pressure will shift this boundary further southeast this evening, allowing winds to decouple and become light and variable even there early. Currently temperatures in the lower to mid 50s already in many locations with dewpoints in the lower to upper 20s. This would put lows in the lower to mid 30s across the area, dropping to near dewpoint values.
At the surface a strong ridge is in place across Minnesota and Iowa, with its southern periphery nosing southward toward the I-44 corridor. A surface warm front will likely set up somewhere near (probably south of) the I-70 corridor, leaving the northern half of the CWA in the much cooler regime. Temperatures along and south of I- 70 may reach 60 degrees, but areas north of that warm front will struggle to get out of the 40s.
527 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Chilly high pressure will build across the region through tonight.
1031 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Cold front across the area will shift south of Lake Okeechobee late this evening, with cloud cover continuing to build southward behind this boundary into late tonight. However, lows tonight will still be above normal, ranging from the low 60s northwest of I-4 to low 70s along the Treasure Coast. IFR/MVFR cigs from KMCO northward will gradually build southward across the area overnight into Thursday behind cold front shifting south of central Florida later this evening. (Modified Previous Discussion) Hazardous boating conditions will develop overnight behind a cold front.
Thursday should be another mild and pleasant sunny day across the forecast area with a few degrees warmer daytime temperature.
Upper ridge builds in Thursday with mostly sunny skies.
539 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A broad upper trough currently sits over the Northern and Central CONUS, extending west to east from Washington State to New England and south through the Central High Plains. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid-50s to the low 60s. A cold front will push south through the Central High Plains.
Weak cold frontal system over southern Saskatchewan and depicted nicely by the RAP13 windshift line and verified well per surface observations and 3 hourly pressure falls along and ahead of the front. A weak cold front that is undergoing frontolysis will move south tonight, and wash out as the baroclinic zone weakens. While the guidance is dry, there will be several fast moving cold fronts that could spread widely scattered showers through the region.
510 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure developing over southeast WY, with frontal boundary now south and west of the area. Upper level analysis continues to show large upper trough over the central and eastern US, with ridge off the west coast.
/issued 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ Broken line of storms along and south of a slow moving cold front across the Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon showing signs of intensification as dynamics coming together in moist and unstable environment.
southerly winds become gusty in the 20-30+KT range along with increasing high clouds ahead of a cold front forecast to arrive into Northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening.
848 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Onshore flow returns Thursday bringing a return of coastal low clouds and cooler weather.
1044 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2020 A broad upper trough currently sits over the Northern and Central CONUS, extending west to east from Washington State to New England and south through the Central High Plains. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid-50s to the low 60s. A cold front will push south through the Central High Plains. Dry weather returns to the region on Friday as an upper trough swings east of the High Plains and west to northwest flow develops aloft behind.
Temperatures will be near or just below freezing for the Friday morning commute. A few snow showers are possible during the first 6 hrs of the period as a wave of low pressure moves across Lower Michigan.
Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the lower to mid 40s in most locations. Dewpoints are still in the lower 30s/upper 30s in most locations. And on Friday, more robust warm advection (8h Temps in the lower 10s) will push highs into the l70s in valleys and u60s atop the Cumberland Plateau areas.
High pressure to the north will move east, shifting winds from the east to a southeasterly direction. Friday will bring some warmer temperatures and a slight chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms later in the afternoon.
1135 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Chilly high pressure will build into the region tonight. The high will shift east and offshore early Friday.
As the snow pushes further E/SE, it will encounter synoptic subsidence beneath a prevailing ridge axis and a very dry boundary layer. to the lower 50s south of I-70.
The overnight looks quiet though quite chilly with lows all areas dropping below freezing and interior southern Tier dropping to the lower 20s.
High pressure will push into the south of the CWA today and despite decent upper level forcing there will be no moisture work with for the most part.
High pressure over Iowa and the Mississippi Valley will slide south tonight following the Mississippi River. This will help produce clear skies, light winds and over night temperatures in the lower 30s tonight for portions of south central Missouri. As the high shifts east of the region Thursday morning, a tightening surface pressure gradient will allow winds to increase and become gusty for Thursday. An upper level trough will move through the upper level northwesterly flow and push a storm system into the area Thursday night into Friday morning.
Tonight into Thursday: The deeper trough across much of the Great Lakes region will begin to flatten through this time period.
Any road impacts should end by Friday afternoon as temperatures warm well above freezing. Biggest challenge will be how fast cooling takes place early in the event and how far north intrusion of near/above freezing wet bulb temps edge into the south overnight. The snow will begin to mix with rain Friday morning from south to north as temperatures climb above freezing.
317 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Sub-average temperature and periodic rain and snow chances are expected through the weekend with areas of crossing low pressure. Broad upper troughing across the NE CONUS, and cold NW boundary layer flow off the Great Lakes, should maintain scattered snow showers across the area this morning. Operational model depictions of the track of the low differ slightly, but would be enough to result in a change in timing of the transition from snow to rain.
High pressure in the low levels and a nearly zonal flow through the mid and upper levels will keep tranquil weather over our area today. Temperatures will trend a little warmer compared to yesterday as the 850 mb ridge will be shifting to our east, and highs across most of the Valley will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Snowfall rates could approach 1"+ per hour within a narrow band, and this is where snow would accumulate more rapidly and offset the higher sun angle.
1206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. Temps are going to be about 5-7 degrees warmer than last night, and dewpoints in those areas should be just a bit below 32. In adjacent areas, temperatures look to be a bit too warm and/or dewpoints will be above freezing, so frost appears to be unlikely.
/issued 313 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ The Arctic air mass which was responsible for bringing freezing temperatures to portions of the forecast area over the past few mornings is finally beginning to modify w/the return of southerly sfc flow. Dry and breezy conditions are expected develop by tomorrow afternoon, especially over the higher terrain out W where elevated to near-critical fire wx conditions could materialize. A passing shrtwv trof over the Central Plains will drag a cold front into the region early Friday morning.
251 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 A weak cold front moves south across the region through this evening, leading to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
309 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Ridging persists over the western United States while a trough deepens to the east. Central and southeast Missouri will see less cloud cover and warmer temperatures peaking in the upper 80s.