Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEAK FLOW EAST OF A STOUT LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN UNABLE TO SCOUR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER DROPS BACK TO JUST BELOW FREEZING. MONDAY EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO MAKE A BETTER PUSH TO THE EAST. WE THEREFORE HAVE AN ASSORTMENT OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMING SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
314 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 08z/2am radar imagery continues to indicate patchy freezing drizzle across central Illinois: however, the areal coverage and intensity has decreased markedly from earlier in the evening.
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND DRIER AIR SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BE DELAYED. SO AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WAVE QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT REMAINS ORIENTED ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RIDING ALONG THE BNDRY WHILE MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY IS SEEN FARTHER SOUTH. LOW VFR CIGS COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL QUICKLY BECOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NWD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
335 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
A SECOND COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY.
SOME OF THIS COULD ALSO BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE BEGIN TO SEE A WARM LAYER MOVE INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT WE DO SEE A RESURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO SOME KIND OF MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THEN ALL RAIN ON MONDAY.
Soundings indicate the possibility for light freezing rain or snow. This would keep the local area on the warm side of the system with most areas remaining above freezing overnight Monday. However, despite most areas remaining above freezing there is enough lift across the northeastern CWA, in the vicinity of the low, for there to be saturation in the snow growth zone. However, any frozen precipitation that does happen to fall will have a short residence time as temperatures on Tuesday rise into the lower 40s to mid 50s thanks to continued height rises.
OTHER REPORTING STATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE SLIGHT MILDER MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING.
420 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TREND OF THE PRESENT CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS DRAPED FROM NEAR NORTHEAST ATLANTA METRO EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN SLOPES DOWN TO ATHENS AND WASHINGTON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ONLY WINTRY PTYPE EXPECTED WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE WEDGE. RESULTANT TEMPS /LEANING HEAVILY ON THE BETTER RESOLVING LOCAL WRF/ AND FCST QPF THROUGH MIDDAY GENERATED UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL ICE ACCRETION AND SOME LIGHTER AMOUNTS JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SO DECIDED TO EXPAND A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS COULD INCLUDES THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND EASTWARD THROUGH ATHENS AND WASHINGTON.
EXPECT TO SEE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTHERN PARTS OF ADVISORY/WARNINGS BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN. WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IN THE FAR NORTH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND RAIN EXITS TONIGHT. MAY BE A BIT OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
1141 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED NEAR DETROIT LAKES AND WADENA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES UNTIL 12Z AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST MN. ALTHOUGH FLURRIES/DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 500HPA TEMPS OF NEGATIVE 30C.
PCPN WILL END ELSEWEHERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE: There may be some patchy freezing drizzle still over parts over south central Illinois this evening. Recent radar trends have been showing returns over this area that as it moves east, and recent runs of the RAP are showing a drying trend at and above 925mb after 06Z, so will carry patchy freezing drizzle until midnight. Will keep the winter weather advisory going for parts of west central and southwest IL until 6 pm due to patchy freezing drizzle. The threat for patchy freezing drizzle should end later this evening as the low level stratus cloud deck shifts east of the area.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A S/W TROF. AND ENHANCEMENT WITH THE S/W TROF ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THERE. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE INLAND AREAS OF NE WI EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE S/W TROF SHIFTS EAST. A SERIES OF A S/W TROFS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY) WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY BE A BIT STRONGER.
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
334 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 A weak low-level trough moving into eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas early this morning has kicked off a few light showers with a light wintry mix spreading into far northern Missouri. A mix of snow, sleet and rain/freezing rain has been reported with this activity over parts of Iowa and Nebraska although accumulations have been very light. Once Tuesday's system pushes to the east, a slow-moving upper ridge to the west will gradually push east into the Plains and Midwest through the remainder of the week.
/issued 545 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front with northwest to north winds of 8 KTS or less will move through West Central Texas this evening. /issued 335 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front has moved through much of the Big Country this afternoon and should move through the Concho Valley/Heartland late this afternoon and then through the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Expect north winds of 5 to 10 mph and slightly cooler temperatures behind the front.
The warmer solutions, ECMWF maintains mid 40s across all of southwest and central Kansas, and the GFS upper 40s in the southeast. We find the Consensus of the Raw models a decent compromise of the cooler MOS output.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH.
WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING EXTREME NW ALABAMA. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A MUSCLE SHOALS TO JASPER TO TUSCALOOSA LINE. A SURFACE CYCLONE WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT NORTH JUST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
1238 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID MONDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES, HOWEVER, BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNSATURATED, ALLOWING FOR SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW GRAINS AS OPPOSED TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE, SO NO CHANGE TO PTYPE FCST ATTM. AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
EXPECT A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA VEERS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIMITED, AND MOST LIKELY OVER WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE WATERS.
Added fog to much of the area, most notably in counties where SREF guidance has the highest fog chances east of a Osceola to Cassville line. Freezing drizzle will remain possible early this evening across far south-central Missouri, but the passage of an 850 mb front should shut that potential down rather quickly. We have gone on the high side of temperature guidance for overnight lows as we are expecting abundant mid and high level cloud cover. Yet another short wave trough will slide southeast across the region from later Monday night into early Tuesday. Dry weather and a warming trend can then be expected for the remainder of the work week as upper level ridging commences.
WITH MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HIGHS ILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR AWHILE. CLIMBING TO 40 TO 45 WEST OF THE JAMES TO THE LOWER 30S OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. A LITTLE WORRIED THAT HIGHS COULD COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. SUSPECT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIFT IN THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT MOVE IN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PASS. THOUGH A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SPOTS. EXCEPT FOR SNOW LIKELY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
Wetter and cooler weather expected middle-to-late this week. A ridge of high pressure will remain over most of the region as a low pressure area moves to the north of the area today.
EXPECTING CIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND IMPROVES ALL TERMINALS TO VFR.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RELAX AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHERE PATCHES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE LINGERED. BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE KY BORDER MAY STILL BE AT FREEZING THROUGH DAYBREAK. SPENCER AND SPARTA WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY WELL ABOVE FREEZING OR WILL BE SOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS RAIN OVER MID TN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH.
LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ENERGY CRESTING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH BREEZY AND AT TIMES GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
Rising mid-level heights and stronger south/southwest low-level flow will bring even warmer weather by late week.
A weak area of low pressure was analyzed over north central KS within a larger trough axis through the plains. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 30s, but if skies clear out a little sooner with the increased cold air advection lows could be a degree or two cooler. Upper ridge and warm temperatures will overspread the region this week.
WITH DEWPOINTS OBSERVED IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL DROP A BIT FURTHER BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET. BUT EVENTUALLY WILL LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUITE A BIT. ADDED MENTION OF VCSH AND RA AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY APPROACHES AND MOISTURE HITS THE LEVELS WHERE RAIN WILL FALL.
329 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO NEAR BISMARCK AND SOUTH. LARGE AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MINNESOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVED WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS WARM AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST TO CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY. THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEK.
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE AREA WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND A LATE NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. JG /ISSUED 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ /06Z TAFS/ INITIAL SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS AT 06Z AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD WACO AND CENTRAL TX BY 12Z. BUT MODELS ARE HAVING MORE ISSUES PICKING UP WHAT LEVELS CIGS WILL BE BACK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME.
LOW CLOUDS TO LIMIT MINS TO UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS. TUESDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
However, much drier air in the lower/mid levels combined with a relatively weaker flow aloft will hinder precip chances across the region overnight. A prevailing westerly downslope flow near the surface combined with the increased cloud cover will help warm the lower levels. Warmer high temperatures can be expected Monday as well as the general westerly downslope flow persists. Highs will climb well into the 50s(F) across central Kansas Monday afternoon with the lower to mid 60s(F) possible in southwest Kansas. Dry conditions can be expected throughout the period as medium range models indicate upper level ridging moving off the Pacific into the Intermountain West early in the period and continuing to shift slowly east into the Central Plains later in the week.
BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES MORNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK REBOUND TO ABOVE FREEZING.
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAMPLE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
Foggy this morning then Much Warmer Mid and Late this Week. Temperatures across the eastern Ozarks are below the freezing mark and some freezing fog and slick spots have developed. Temperatures across far southwestern Missouri are in the low to mid 30s. Some low lying areas could be slighting cooler and below freezing with freezing fog possible, along with some slick spots. An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the central Plains early this morning. The trough will track east across the area this morning.
AS FORCING/MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN HAS STRUGGLED TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE IS A LITTLE CAPE IN THE LOW LEVELS. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO TRACK THROUGH ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL ALSO HELP CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT SHORT DURATION OF SNOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONT.
1019 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 510 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/ LIGHT WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
339 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016 IN THE WAKE OF A MINOR TROUGH THAT MANAGED TO GENERATE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA OVER OVER THE SERN PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED IN NERN NM WILL TRANSLATE SEWD UNDER DRY NW FLOW. DEPARTURE OF THIS RIDGE BY LATE MORNING AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN NM COMPLETE WITH SOME BREEZY W-SW WINDS LOCALLY. SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER W-NW BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT AND DISTANT TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF SFC WAVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NE OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE TN VALLEY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIDING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE RIDGING AND IS STILL ABLE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. BUT A STRONGER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO BRINGING MILD AIR AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE. THIS STORM WILL ALSO HAVE HIGH SNOW LEVELS--EVEN THE WED NIGHT LOWS ARE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. PARTIAL CLEARING TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES EVEN IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH THE PRESENT TROUGH IS THE WIND.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
900 PM PST SUN FEB 14 2016 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. BECOMING COOLER FOR MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ITS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS IT CONTS SE INTO IA BY 12Z/TUE. NOW: SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT A COUPLE DEGS WARMER.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES OUT THE GATE WILL DELAY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW.
OTHERWISE WILL HAVE SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN CENTRAL SASK MOVES SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST THRU THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY. TIMING OF COLD FRONT WILL DEPEND IF GFK HITS 50 OR NOT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT FOR SUN NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START THIS EVENING IN LOWER ACADIANA AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN SUNDAY.
755 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AS A WARMER AND DRIER TREND TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LAST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END OVER THE SE MTNS AROUND SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT COLDER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
622 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 COLD FRONT TO BRING BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AS THIS TROUGH NEARS RESULTING IN STRONG OMEGAS ALONG MOIST ISENTROPIC SURFACES. MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE LOWEST HEIGHT FALLS. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SRN CO INTO NM. THE 00Z NAM REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS 18Z PREDECESSOR WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY/CNTRL LA LATE. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION SHORT AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
748 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT.
The slight clearing behind the cold front will give us a break in activity, but we still expect the secondary trough to induce more lift as the axis swings across the Plains tonight. However, models seem a little aggressive with the snow and advertised accumulations given surface temperatures that are expected to remain above freezing through the event.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CAUSING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AREAWIDE. COLD AIR WILL EXIT THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SEVERAL DAY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WARMER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A RISE.
/ISSUED 906 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG TX/LA COAST MOVING N AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START THIS EVENING IN LOWER ACADIANA AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN SUNDAY.
811 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 AVIATION AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.