Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
and Thursday Radars to the west and southwest early this morning show convection hanging close to the surface warm front and 850 boundary where deep moisture remains confined. Upper height increase today ahead of the gradually weakening short wave trough over the Northern Plains will provide an element of reduced pops. Some progs continue to produce some light pcpn Thursday along an 850 trough slowly dropping southward. temperatures will run a bit cooler than normal next few days.
322 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The cold front this afternoon was bisecting the state from southwest to northeast, entering north central Kansas in our CWA.
The broad high pressure area remains aloft over the southern U. These disturbance appear to be artifacts of the convection that forms on the higher terrain each afternoon that subsequently moves east over the plains before dissipating. A cold front moves across the forecast area today, keeping high temperatures nearly 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in some locations across far eastern Colorado. With the cold front expected to be south of the forecast area and storms expected to move off the Rockies and across the plains later today, should see isolated thunderstorms move across the southern extent of the forecast area this evening.
258 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Northwest flow will continue into the end of the week with slightly cooler than average conditions. Dry conditions with gusty winds this afternoon behind the cold front that passed earlier today. Highs struggling to get into the lower 70s.
Farther south, thermal ridge will be overhead and when combined with sunshine and strong southwest winds, anticipate readings climbing well into the 90s by afternoon.
Further north, a cold front continues to drape itself from Nebraska southeast into southern Indiana and West Virginia. East of I-65, drier air in the lowest level should help to keep dewpoints slightly lower (in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees). However, west of that area, dewpoints should remain in the lower 70s today.
253 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Our weather here in Central Alabama is still dominated by the large, upper ridge to our west. We also still have sfc ridging exhibiting its influence across the area. The main track of upper disturbances on the north side of the upper ridge will remain north of Central Alabama through the end of the work week.
311 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest IA, with cold front well south and east of the cwa. High pressure is centered over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows high pressure settling east over the Southern Plains, with a broad ridge covering the rest of the plains.
Recent guidance remains split on the development of MVFR cigs across the TAF sites, although it does appear the highest likelihood remains south and east of the Metroplex based on the orientation of the low-level flow. /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ The subtropical upper level high will be the dominant player in our weather through the next several days.
This is concerning looking at cloud cover starting to fill in north of the main warm front closer to the interstate 80 corridor. The low looks to edge eastward northeastward with time. Shear profiles would support supercell thunderstorms with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado near the warm front. Thunderstorms also look to develop along the cold front along or east of the Interstate 35 corridor in Minnesota, then race east. High pressure builds into the region on Thursday with decreasing cloud expected by afternoon.
Cooler day in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Quiet night with ridging aloft and no precipitation on tap. With increasing low and mid level moisture and low level convergence setting up across far southeast Wyoming, expect isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, most numerous near the low and mid level theta-e ridge axis over far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Warmer day and have blended the NAM and GFS MOS highs.
346 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Cold front early this evening will be just NW of CWA. particularly for the southern 1/2-2/3 of the CWA where the cold front will either not pass through or have the fropa very late tonight. Temperatures behind this front are not much cooler behind the front but should cool off about ~5 degrees from this afternoon.
Mid afternoon temps were in the low to mid 90s, except 80s Plateau. The northeast / Upper Cumberland area will also have the highest potential for brief strong storms, with better low level convergence and stronger mid level winds. The overnight hours will be quite muggy with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
Dry cold frontal boundary sliding through SW KS on schedule this afternoon with a shift to a N/NE winds. Storms expected to initiate in SE Colorado on the higher terrain late this afternoon, with 12z NAM suggesting storms will propogate into far SW KS (Morton county) this evening.
A high pressure system will maintain warm and dry conditions across the region today. A low pressure trough will move eastward north of the area Thursday increasing cloudiness and resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. A high pressure ridge will build across the region this weekend reducing cloudiness and increasing temperatures slightly. An upper level trough approaching the area has brought more stratus coverage this morning and it is struggling to break out completely this afternoon. Tonight the approaching trough will continue to deepen the marine layer and may bring some light rain showers or drizzle to areas along the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts. This will keep temperatures cooler on Thursday across the area and especially in the near coastal areas where the deeper marine layer allows marine air to move in to.
/issued 1036 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016/ High pressure is ridging across the area from the Atlantic with drier air moderating across the area. Temperatures are on track to reach generally into the lower 90s this afternoon, except upper 80s at the beaches. High pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic will keep generally easterly flow in place through much of the week.
1153 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 High pressure will continue from coast to coast over the southern half of the U. Small amounts of moisture riding north on this western periphery of the ridges will travel from NW Mexico and along the AZ and NM border into western CO and eastern UT today through Thursday. A strengthening closed low over the Pacific Northwest will travel east along the U.
lows drop into the upper 50s for most locations, the exception being the southern counties where lows only drop down into the low 60s.
(Issued 220 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016) A fairly typical summertime pattern is ongoing across the HUN CWFA this afternoon, with broad mid-level ridging extending across most of the southern CONUS. Area temperatures are a little warmer than average, with most spots already in the low-mid 90s. The ridge will continue to be the primary influence on area weather for the next 24 hours or so, with little to no precipitation coverage and persistence temperatures. That will begin to change late Thursday as a deeper trough begins to carve out over the eastern CONUS, driving a cold front farther south.
605 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A dissipating cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will begin to build over the region from the southwest later tonight. This high will linger over the region through Monday night.
Region still seeing a west/east difference in these temps due to the late exit of trough over the eastern portion of the CWA. broad H5/H7 ridge located over the southern half of the country w/ zonal flow across central and northern portions of the country. will allow overnight lows to drop into the lower to mid 50s.
204 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A weak cold front moving into the forecast area will merge with low pressure off the southeast coast Monday. A trough will linger near the coast through much of the week and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. The upper level ridge over the area will give way to an approaching upper trough and associated cold front which will enter the area Monday. Weak convergence into the ridge and daytime heating have produced a cumulus field over the area. With increasing cloudiness limiting radiational cooling, expect lows around 70 degrees into the low 70s tonight. There should be little convergence associated with the front because of the northwest low-level flow on the backside of offshore low pressure.
The high pressure axis will shift west of Florida today, allowing for more northerly/northeasterly winds aloft along with a slight increase in moisture in the lower levels.
Still expect tonight and Monday to be dry as the upper level trough that is currently moving across the Midwest will move off to the east this evening, allowing an upper ridge to build over the area tomorrow. Stayed close to going lows tonight as temperatures will likely be cooler than guidance over the eastern Ozarks. With upper ridge building in and southwest surface winds, highs still look like they will be at or above the warmest MOS temperatures for highs.
Sunny skies and southerly winds, occasionally gusting west of the Mississippi River, were aiding above normal temperatures in the lower to a few middle 80s. Low pressure was over Manitoba, Canada with a warm front extending through western Minnesota, and a cold front draped from northwest North Dakota through Montana. The main focus on Monday will be with the cold front and storm chances late afternoon through evening.
H5 ridging aloft coupled with lack of strong moisture advection from the Gulf has pretty much taken any rain out of the mix for now. High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will prevail across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the next 24 hours. /issued 437 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500mb ridge centered nearly overhead this morning will shift slightly west over the Texas Big Bend region through the forecast period.
High pressure builds strongly into SW Kansas today, with 500 mb heights reaching 587-589 dm by evening. Strong upper anticyclone expands over the southern plains on Monday, with 500 mb heights reaching 593 dm by Monday evening. Few if any clouds and very light winds beneath the upper ridge axis.
358 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Moisture associated with weak low pressure will move east tonight.
Heights will increase somewhat towards the evening and overnight hours as high pressure slowly builds in from the south. This will also cause winds to become more southwesterly for Monday allowing temperatures to continue to increase with high temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than normal.
Inverted trof passing thru later tonight and will see clearing skies overnight.
235 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Zonal flow early in the period will gradually back to the southwest ahead of an upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure aloft to gradually build northward through Monday and combine with drier air advancing east and south across the area. Outside a very small chance of a thunderstorm over the higher terrain of south-central and southwest New Mexico, mainly Monday afternoon, expect dry and warm weather to dominate the next couple of days.
Otherwise for today we should see plenty of sunshine again and warmer temperatures. A South to Southwest wind will increase this morning to the 10 to 15 mph range and 15 to 25 mph this afternoon as high pressure at the surface exits to the East. A trough entering the state from the Northwest will tighten the pressure gradient across the Northwestern third to half of the state resulting in the stronger winds in that area.
High pressure behind this front will build across our area next few days bringing dry and warm weather.
5C warmer than yesterdays and this will carry over thru Tue with increased presence of the ridge aloft, although Mon will probably be the hottest of the next few days. The ridge is still present Wed but heights are lower with SW and W flow by Thur PM/Fri, respectively. Pretty good model agreement that a mid latitude cyclone will be e of the front range Fri. An assocd cold front is likely to move thru Sat evening and low level mstr will have a brief window to return along/ahead of front Sat evening and thus a few storms possible across the far e then.
Activity should diminish from w-to-e this evening as upper disturbance crosses the area and cold front finally pushes swd.
That is because an upper ridge will build across the central United States tonight through the middle of the week as a deep trough approaches the west coast and the upper level pattern amplifies in response. The resulting high pressure across the region will keep rain chances and cloud cover to a minimum.
A weakening upper inverted trough along the northern Gulf Coast continues to enhance shower and thunderstorm development although the bulk of the coverage is now shifting to mainly along the coastal areas. A weak backdoor cold front will slide into the area Monday as upper trough tracks across the southeastern US and an upper ridge will begin shifting eastward across the southeastern conus.
RAP soundings are showing mixing up to 900-850mb this afternoon which should result in highs in the lower-mid 80s. Conditions to improve by mid morning with partly to mostly sunny skies and temps warming up into the low 80s.
High pressure is then expected to build into the Carolinas into the coming weekend.
High pressure builds into the region late tonight and Monday.
Synoptic Setup: Flow from the High Plains extending back west into the Pacific Northwest will remain zonal through most fo the short term. Hot High Pressure is building over the southwest with a large cool core trough developing over the Gulf of Alaska.
1123 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Current surface map shows low pressure across Saskatchewan with trof into the northern plains. 130kt jet streak located across the Pacific Northwest will move eastward along the Canadian border today, allowing weak cold front to slip through the western Dakotas.
Precip chances will quickly come to an end as the trough axis slides by, and skies will clear leaving for a sunny and warm ending to the weekend. Focus then turns to the unseasonable heat this upcoming work week as ridging builds aloft. An unseasonably strong upper ridge will then build over the southern Plains early this week and persist through the work week, resulting in afternoon temperatures nearing record levels in some places.
A cold front was moving through the far eastern Dakotas this afternoon. The cold front will move into western WI late tonight, then pass through the forecast area on Monday. WAA and compressional heating ahead of the cold front will lead to much above normal temperatures. Monday Night Through Sunday The zonal upper level flow will tilt to a southwesterly flow across the Midwest as a closed low develops over the west coast by midweek.
A slow moving short wave trof across eastern Tennessee and extending southwest into east Alabama has been triggering scattered showers and a few thunderstorms east of I-65 this afternoon. The most significant feature is the main short wave trof crossing the Mississippi river. Thunderstorms have been developing rapidly across north Mississippi this afternoon in response to the short wave trof. The stronger convection should weaken by 9 or 10 pm with the loss of daytime heating, but scattered showers and storms will likely continue through the overnight hours as the short wave trof moves across Alabama.
Even with the building heights, temperatures are expected to be cooler than Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The core of an H5 ridge centered nearly overhead will shift slightly west through the short term, but its broad spread will still cover the CWA, and the mid levels will remain dry. Reinforcing high pressure will move out over the Northwest Gulf on Monday, bringing a subtle backing of winds late Mon into Mon night, through wind strength will remain light.
850mb temperatures are about 4 to 6C cooler for Monday however deep mixing will help mitigate these cooler low level temperatures, with highs about 10 degrees above average.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today with plenty of sunshine, continued south southwest winds, and warmer air moving in aloft. Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across northwestern zones to around 60 in our southeast.
The upper trof driving the showers and isolated storms across the area today will move across the Gulf Coast tonight. An associated weak cold front will also move south into the marine area and stall late tonight into early Monday morning. Ahead of the trof and front, isolated to scattered mainly light showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through late this evening before drier air begins to work into the area from the northwest and end the rain chances from northwest to southeast after midnight. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to mid and upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Monday will be in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast.
High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the weather across S TX through the short term. However the high pressure aloft will inhibit most convection, therefore, only went with a mention of isolated showers with a 10 pop. On Monday, the models are showing a slight increase in moisture across the NE CWA as a short wave aloft tracks southward along the eastern periphery of the high. Only went with a 20 pop due to the continued effects of the high pressure and limited moisture. MX temps on Mon are expected to be slightly warmer across the west due to the dry mid/upper levels, but a more easterly flow will result in slightly cooler temps across the Coastal Bend.
The cold front is pushing into the northeastern portion of the forecast area noted by the wind shift and slightly lower dewpoints. The post-frontal convection will end late tonight from west to east as the upper-level trough swings through. The workweek will start out precip free as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into region and filters in drier air. Winds will become northeast/easterly, pulling in Atlantic moisture from the low pressure hung up along the N/S Carolina coast.
110 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A poorly defined slow moving cold front will move east across the area today. High pressure will build in tonight and Monday.
145 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A deep plume of moisture will provide for clouds and showers this afternoon into Monday until the weak upper trough moves to our east Monday. A large ridge to our southwest will slow provide above normal heights and temperatures to the region. Most of the week will be dominated by this ridge. The higher probability of rain/showers shifts eastward fast this forecast period and rain should end in the eastern areas.
The only major weather story for the next day is the continued warmer than normal high temperatures. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 50s across the entire forecast area, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday will range from the low 80s across the northern forecast area with the southern forecast area seeing temperatures in upper 80s to low 90s.
237 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a weak cold front late tonight. The upper trough associated with this frontal passage finally looks to kick eastward toward Monday morning. Fries By Monday morning the cold front will just be passing over the Appalachians, and there will still be plenty of low level moisture across the eastern half of the forecast area. Once the low level winds turn away from the upslope direction Monday evening, cloud cover over the ridges should rapidly clear out.
210 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A cold front will move across the region this evening into the overnight hours. High pressure for the work week. Showers ahead of the approaching cold front has left Sunday on the damp side. Do expect cold front to move across the area during the late evening and early overnight hours. Axis of 500 hPa trough will pass central WV around 15z Monday morning. has slowed the eastward progression of low level moisture in the wake of the trough. minor adjustments have been made to Sky and PoP forecast for the Monday morning hours over central WV and the higher terrain.
On Monday, upper level ridging will strengthen across Texas, setting the stage for well-above average temperatures for the workweek.
The highest probabilities of rainfall will generally be east of a line from Tompkinsville to Winchester. Temperatures were in the lower 70s and are expected to remain nearly steady state through sunrise. For today and tonight, deep moisture plume will move eastward as upper level trough axis approaches and pushes through the region tonight. Clearing will start to work into the region later tonight with lows dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Combination of high pressure and ridging aloft will build into the region for Monday resulting in sunny skies with highs in the middle 80s (83-88 in most locations).
Morning satellite and obs show scattered showers across eastern Alabama in conjunction with a short wave trough. However, some mid-level drying behind the short wave trof could result in partial clearing in the western counties, which will lead to warmer afternoon temps. A weak cold front will move into north Alabama this evening.
Upper level ridging over South Texas will be expanding north, so coverage should be considerably less than what we saw yesterday afternoon/evening. High temperatures today will be well above seasonal normals, mainly in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.
Rain should end by tonight as temperatures cool back into the low to mid 60s. A large ridge of high pressure will build across the nation's midsection through most of the work week.
A broad ridge will expand northward through N TX and NM today. A few of the higher valleys could get close to freezing.
221 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 A cold front will slowly pass through the area tonight bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area. High pressure behind the front will bring dry weather for much of the rest of the week. Lrg upr low well north in Canada dvlps a broad trof over the nrn US into the ern lakes. Any effect from the trof shd remain north of the fcst area thru the pd althoughn an isltd aftn shwr psbl in the far north.
A transitory ridge of high pressure moves over the region Monday causing a warming and drying trend.
High pressure settling in over Texas through the next couple of days will bring in drier conditions and stifle any shower/thunderstorm activity through much of this week. Towards the end of the week, a trough approaching from the northwest will erode the high pressure enough to allow a disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico to move onto the lower Texas coast.
High pressure was over much of the Northland early this morning which has led to mostly clear skies, light winds and areas of fog. Continued warm air advection today will lead to a warmer day with highs in the seventies for most areas but also will cause clouds to increase. The southerly wind will keep temperatures cooler along the North Shore. The chance for showers and storms will then increase over the rest of the Northland this evening as the cold front moves into central to eastern Minnesota by 06Z. Another in a series of long wave trofs will dig into the western U. With the falling heights, low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies.
152 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 A cold front will then slowly progress through the region this afternoon and evening, with additional showers and thunderstorms at times.
137 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A plume of deep moisture streaming north into Pennsylvania all the way from the Gulf Coast region will interact with a slow moving cold front and a few disturbances aloft to bring occasional showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend.