Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOME MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
/ISSUED 418 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ THE HIGH TODAY "60" WAS REACHED BEFORE SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE ARE ABOUT DONE WITH THE RAINS BUT THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL MOVE OVER SE TX AND SRN LA THIS EVENING AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY SPILLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MORNING WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND PTCLDY SKIES TEMPS WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S MOST LOCATIONS AND UPPER 30S IN CNTRL LA.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1009 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
1005 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. WIT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. (BELOW MOS GUIDANCE) SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONAL 20 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE ISLAND. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 51F AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 44F.
847 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING WITH NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO NEAR 40 MPH. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY CLEARED THE AREA. OVERRUNNING WILL SET UP UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OUT AND MODIFIES. AND THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE SUPPORTING LIFT MOVES OFFSHORE.
724 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
645 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
653 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING.
534 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 Above normal temperatures will be the primary focus over the next several days, as ridging builds over the High Plains and surface winds turn to the west southwest.
717 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONTINUED CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE FRONTAL TROF SLIDES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/WRN GOMEX. SHORT WAVE TROF WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM DIGS OVER THE NRN TIER STATES AND FEEDS ITS ENERGY TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME STANDING WATER/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. SHRA ACTIVITY WILL LINGER WELL INTO THU EVNG AS THE MID LVL TROF AXIS CRANKS THE SFC FRONT THRU THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. COOLER MIN TEMPS WITH AREAS ALONG AN N OF I-4 FALLING INTO THE M/U40S.
656 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
324 PM PST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOME MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
518 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SWD. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER 40S NOW OBSERVED IN HALEYVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS THIS HOUR. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING LIGHT RETURNS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING MAINTAINING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXIT OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
918 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 THE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS EAST TENNESSE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH RATHER MEAGER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR MORNING LOWS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION ALONG THE TENNESSE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 45 28 54 / 80 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 42 26 51 / 80 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 41 25 50 / 60 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 39 23 48 / 80 10 0 0.
1000 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
926 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
555 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TONIGHT/S UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
/ISSUED 350 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. DESPITE STRONG FORCING FROM THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
551 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.
Meanwhile upper ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and heavy rains.
952 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS) AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER.
STUBBORN CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WEER NOTED OVER THE PLATEAU WHERE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN UPPER LOW WAS CREATING GREATER INSTABILITY.
809 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. WITH LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY. GENERAL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WESTERN CONUS TROF REMAINS IN PLACE AND SENDS DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ONE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NOCTURNAL AND DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP, THE NOSE OF WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH MAINLY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE DRY SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS FILTERED INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND REACHES WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LINK TO THE LOWER LEVELS (850-700) HAS SHEARED TO THE EAST (SEE CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSES).
HIGHS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING THROUGH THE SE US WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGING IN THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED ITS WAY BACK INTO EASTERN CWA. SPLITTING ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WITH ORIGINAL COMPLEX SLIDING SE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE WHILE MCV DRIVING ADDL CONVECTION ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND PUSHING UP INTO MINNESOTA. EXPECTING THIS AND ADDL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WESTERN US TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INDUCE SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDL DISTURBANCES TO EJECT NE OUT OF UPPER LOW AND PRIMARILY EFFECT THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
804 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DISSIPATING LATE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL AND THE SE ATLC SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH AN INVERTED H100-H70 TROF OVER THE FL STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS TO KEEP THE LCL LOW/MID LVL PGRAD FIELD DISRUPTED. LCL ATLC SANDWICHED BTWN A AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE FL STRAITS AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
LOW PRES WAS CNTRD NEAR THE GA/TN/NC BORDERS WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS OVER NM/WRN TX. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STAGNANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACRS TX. THE PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT LEADS TO WARMER TEMPS. NUDGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE ACRS CNTL LA. LT AND VRBL WINDS AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTH ACRS THE NW GULF.
SO PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY INITIATION POINT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. BUT BECOMING SURFACE BASED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
/ISSUED 309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
641 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CREATE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMER THAN IN THE EAST. 850MB SHOWS MOISTURE AXIS AND THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH OK TO KS TO NORTHERN MO. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD IL.
724 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN HAS REMAINED TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN GULF COAST.
THE OVERALL AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ UPPER 5H RIDGING ENCOMPASSING THE STATE TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL RANGE AND MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND CHESTER NORTHWARD. ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
1046 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ A PERSISTENT FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING COOL WEATHER WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRINGS WARMER WEATHER WITH FEWER CLOUDS.
NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN GOES TO THE RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z MON. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MON AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS OUT TUE INTO WED. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER E TN/WRN NC WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOLER SPOTS ACROSS WEST TN WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THE PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND USHERS IN EASTERLY FLOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD A TAD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S AND WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK. /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND UPPER LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS E OVER THE ERN CONUS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY QUIET REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO AS WELL AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
745 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MOST AREAS. TROUGH TRIES TO ENCROACH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO HANG ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW ANY CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
618 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SAND MOUNTAIN, NEAR AN INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIR WAS MUCH MORE STABLE WEST OF THE TROF IN NWRN AL AND SRN TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SRN SMOKY MOUNTAINS, WITH DRY AND SUBSIDING AIR W OF THE CIRCULATION.
857 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
849 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
Feel that Thursday's weather should be much like today with a midday break and more late day/overnight convection since we will remain on the northern edge of the ridge and won't cap off for the foreseeable future.
1240 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS ACROSS EASTERN KY/TN YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY. COLDER AIR UNDER/NEAR THIS LOW HAD HAS RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL NIGHT IS IN THE FORECAST. WITH ALL OF THE LINGERING PRECIP LOCATED WELL E OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. 09 /ISSUED 131 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SAND MOUNTAIN, NEAR AN INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIR WAS MUCH MORE STABLE WEST OF THE TROF IN NWRN AL AND SRN TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SRN SMOKY MOUNTAINS, WITH DRY AND SUBSIDING AIR W OF THE CIRCULATION.
/ISSUED 439 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. CAUSING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THE LAKE.
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING BY SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING, WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL FILTER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 724 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015/ MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN HAS REMAINED TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN GULF COAST.
1254 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DISSIPATING LATE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS GOING. THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
743 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RAIN WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN THOUGH.
1110 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. A LOOK AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY MAY TRANSITION TO/OR DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LANDBREEZE.
THE PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND USHERS IN EASTERLY FLOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD A TAD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. /61/ /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/ DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ACCORDING TO A COUPLE OF SHORT RANGE MODELS (HRR,RAP13) THE SMALL MCS/MCV TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN H5 RIDGE SHOULD DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. SAID H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD START AROUND MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOMORROW LOOKS A BIT WARMER.
735 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
939 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATU CU PERSISTS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING. UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CA TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA.
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO THE REGION/S SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS SW IDAHO.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER. BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS SUFFICIENT TO ROTATE THESE STRONG UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.
134 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAIN STATES AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
559 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MORE PREVALENT. HOWEVER THINNEST CLOUD COVER IN THE NRN CWA SO HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNEVENTFUL EVENING WEATHER-WISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH CONSENSUS. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH FORCING HAVE CUT POPS FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND KEEP THEM IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH LIKELY PRECIP AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) TODAY WITH THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.