Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front associated with it is slow-moving, while plenty of warm air and moisture streams out of the south up and into Central Illinois. Tomorrow will be a much quieter day, with the skies clearing and temperatures a bit warmer with all the sunshine. The main cold front associated with the weather system that brought precip to the area will finally move through the CWA Tuesday night. High pressure will finally build into the region at the end of the week and into Sat. Due to the differences being stark, best to keep a blend of the models going that far out, keeping pops on the low side in the chance category. Gusty southerly winds expected to veer to more southwesterly before becoming more southerly again tomorrow ahead of the advancing cold front.
The cold front is just entering Tyler and Northern Jasper counties in SE Texas, with limited convection so far here. The wind advisory will expire at 3 pm over inland SE TX as the frontal trough approaches, 6pm for SE TX/C and SW LA, and over Acadiana at 9 pm.
/issued 408 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A Pacific cold front is moving through the area, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, mainly across the Big Country and Heartland. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40s, with the coldest readings expected across the Interstate 10 corridor, where winds will be lightest.
Winds will shift towards the west and then northwest behind a pre-frontal trough and then the cold front within the next few hours. The aforementioned cold front begins to retreat northward as a weak warm front late tonight.
A lake wind advisory areawide is set to expire at 5 pm, and believe these approaching winds will subdue just enough with setting sun to not warrant a reissuance of the LWA but is bringing clear skies to that portion of the cwa and allow overnight lows to fall into the lower 40s across the river valley region. The actual cold front with this system arriving late tomorrow.
Otherwise, upper low will continue to meander over the northern Plains through Tuesday pushing a weak frontal boundary through southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday afternoon.
Will also see some upslope enhancement across the northern portions of northeast Wyoming and along the Pine Ridge in southwest South Dakota.
In the mtns and valleys, temps varied considerably, with negative digits at the highest mtn tops to single digits to 30s in the valleys. Initially, there will be quite a bit of wind with this disturbance across all of the higher terrain, but as the evening progresses, the winds will gradually decrease. Min temps tonight are expected to be a few degrees cooler than this morning's lows, with readings expected to drop into the 20s across most of the plains and mainly single digits across the mtns and high valleys. Tuesday and Tuesday night, upper trough axis forecast to move east of our area, so expect precipitation to wane, and temperatures to be colder than Monday's readings with the push of colder air from the north.
Kept this advisory above 8000 feet and did not include the Highway 191 corridor through Monticello. The last wave to affect the area is now exiting the region though favorable northwest flow will allow orographics to keep snowfall in the picture over the higher terrain. Cross sections show the highest omega values through and above the dendritic growth region which should make for some efficient snow making.
Scattered snow showers are expected again by this afternoon and evening, especially over the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim north and east.
The NAM/SREF keep the deepest moisture and hence the highest pops across north Georgia with very little across central GA. Per the High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory. The highest winds speeds should be experienced this evening as the LLJ core moves across northwest Georgia. some of the higher elevations could continue to see wind gusts above 35 mph.
Upper low had moved into South Dakota as expected this morning, with a vorticity center rotating northeast around the low across eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. Coldest air was still north and west of upper low, and will gradually ooze south into our area with time this week. Models are in much better agreement this morning in regards to movement and eventual departure of upper low in/through the Northern Plains.
1119 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 Update to cancel the High Wind warning over the South Laramie Range area and to post a wind advy for the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Upper low is currently spinning over central South Dakota with a pretty strong pressure gradient across the CWA. Went ahead and dropped the High Wind Warning for the Bordeaux area as winds have been weaker there compared to the southern Laramie Range, and winds will be more west-northwest which tends to be less favorable for Bordeaux. The higher elevations of the southern Laramie Range and adjacent foothills should see mixing down of winds of 40-50 kts.
Winds will gradually become more northwest and north late tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Not reflected in the TAFs is a wind shift back to the north as a cold front swings through towards the very end of the period.
Embedded within this flow are two potent PV maxes, one over the Northern Plains, and another now moving thru the basal portion of the longwave trough across Northern TX.
Band of showers that has developed over a wide swath of the western and central parts of Middle Tennessee is helping to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previously expected. However, still looks like thermal ridge, ahead of pre-frontal trough, will still work its way into these same areas late today and this evening. Strong pre-frontal trough expected to push across the Mississippi Valley this afternoon, and across western and middle Tennessee overnight. Strong winds will occur ahead of the trough, and have left mention of low-level wind shear in the CKV and BNA TAFs for this evening. After the front passes, conditions are forecast to return rather quickly to VFR, with southwest surface winds becoming gusty on Tuesday ahead of a cold front, which will be moving out of the Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
The upper level low up in the Dakotas will spin for a few days before finally sliding off to the east. The placement of the low will keep our area under southwesterly flow aloft. By late Tuesday an upper level impulse will slide through and bring another (more noticeable) cold frontal boundary through the Ozarks. This weekend, a trough will dig across the Four Corners Region and will eventually cut off from the main flow. GFS doesn't move the upper low much and has the system avoiding an upper level trough that pushes southeastward from Alberta. As this trough arrives in our area, little in the way of moisture would keep much of the forecast area dry.
Outside of some passing isolated light showers, much of the region is dry as high pressure continues to build from the north. The short term period will feature high pressure continuing to hold a strong influence across South Florida, with generally dry weather outside of some isolated showers over the Atlantic waters and portions of the east coast. Aloft, heights will gradually increase through the period with increasing upper-level ridging.
Upper level low pulling northeast with upper level low rotating back to the southeast with time through tomorrow. Initially clearing skies will give to increasing clouds and brisk westerly winds Tuesday as the upper level low approaches the region. Temperatures overnight will be in the 30s with highs Tuesday reaching the lower to mid 40s once again north and in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the south. Clouds will keep readings cooler over the north.
After a clear start to the day, high clouds continue to increase ahead of the next trough approaching the region and this is starting to hold temperatures in check after rising faster than expected in the morning forecast. Wind speeds will try to pick up again Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will arrive into the northern counties of the forecast area around noon. Jordan Confidence is high in a pattern shift toward much cooler and unsettled weather by the end of the week, but how cold and whether this translates into wintry precip is another matter altogether.
229 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A broad storm system centered over the upper plains and midwest will push a cold front through the commonwealth on Tuesday. A second cold front will follow for midweek. More rain and mild temperatures will occur before cooler air and lake effect snow showers return for the end of the week. Temps may rise late tonight as a strong srly LLJet moves in just ahead of the cold front. Downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and New England does not move much and pumps up a little.
430 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A broad storm system centered over the upper plains and midwest will push a cold front through the commonwealth on Tuesday. A second cold front will follow for midweek. More rain and mild temperatures will occur before cooler air and lake effect snow showers return for the end of the week. Temps may rise late tonight as a strong srly LLJet moves in just ahead of the cold front. Downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and New England does not move much and pumps up a little.
334 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) Windy conditions should continue through the late afternoon behind a Pacific cold front, with a Lake Wind Advisory remaining in effect until 6 pm.
The northwest flow will also usher in cooler air with highs in the 30s expected across northeast Colorado.
140 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Areas of low pressure will return periodic rain chances to the forecast tonight through mid week. The low level jet should also result in gusty winds at the surface, though model soundings show the strongest winds remaining capped above the surface.
1203 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery and radar data illustrate the dry slot centered over the forecast area, associated with the eastern Dakotas upper low. The first will be over west central MN related to the upper low, with the second area of redevelopment anticipated along/east of Interstate 35 in vicinity of the surface front during the late morning and afternoon hours. Tonight precipitation will be primarily focused along the western/northern fringes of the forecast area tied to the upper low, and we should start to see some snow mixing in during the evening as colder air works in. The very highly amplified upper low will be slow to move out of the Upper Midwest this week as a blocking type pattern develops north across central Canada.
Cold air continues to fill into the region tonight with lows falling into the middle to upper 20s as northwest winds of 7 to 12 mph are expected to continue overnight and prevent temperatures from falling into the lower 20s/upper teens. Models differ on the evolution of the upper trough that develops to our west and where does the upper low at the bottom of this trough go. VFR conditions are expected through the day with high clouds associated with a trough that will traverse the region overnight.
There should be some moisture return in the eastern zones and some of the high-res guidance is showing some isolated activity. Another trough will pass through the central plains Tuesday night and will send a reinforcing cold front with a trajectory more from the north which should mean even cooler air.
areas across the SRN/SERN portion of AR in close proximity to the nose of the higher moisture axis. will also be the region where the low level SRH values are forecast to be highest. if any storm were to become SFC based in this region of overlap between the higher moisture and high 0-1 km SRH (forecast values of several hundred m2/s2).
Still thinking the most significant snowfall will fall over the higher terrain, including the Big Sheep Mountains, and the Blue Mountain, and Carlyle areas of Wibaux county. Tuesday night will see a gradual tapering of snowfall from west to east as the low center drops southeastward into the Mississippi valley. The pressure gradient will also weaken with the movement of the low, thus winds should drop off in speed.
Can't rule out a few flurries by Tuesday morning on the eastern plains with second surge of mid level moisture, but overall looks like another mostly cloudy and brisk day with temperatures a few degrees cooler than today.
A strong 150 knot jet max lifts to the north this evening followed by a mid level trough axis that moves across southern Wisconsin tonight. Moderate to strong upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion ahead of the trough. A narrow band of surface based CAPE of around 300 Joules/KG with the occluded/cold front will be enough for a mention of isolated thunderstorms.
1037 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure will build back into the region overnight and Friday.
/Tonight/ Quiet conditions tonight with high pressure situated off to the east/southeast. Have temperatures dropping into the mid 30s across the east where closer to the high and coolest air in place aloft.
For 06z Aviation discussion below Surface analysis this afternoon puts the center of sprawling high pressure over western IA with a potent storm system moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. Aloft, a longwave trough axis is nearly N-S from Lake Superior through the lower Mississippi River Valley and a small ridge axis is aligned over the spine of the Rockies, putting MN/WI within dry NW flow aloft. allowing for warmer temperatures and slightly higher dewpoints to move into the region through tomorrow afternoon. However, plenty of sunshine will still be realized despite the exodus of high pressure due to a broad longwave ridge moving atop the region tomorrow. Minimum temperatures tonight will also be warmer, thus no need for any further freeze-related headlines or supplementary products.
Overall pattern will remain unchanged through Friday as high pressure continues well to the north with an east to northeast flow bringing Atlantic moisture westward under the inversion. Seasonal temperatures will continue with lows ranging from around 60 far north to the lower 70s near the coast from Tampa Bay southward, and daytime highs on Friday climbing back into the middle to upper 80s. A large ridge of high pressure will extend from New England southwestward across Georgia and to the northern Gulf coast near Texas over the weekend. A weak back-door cold front will slip southward across Florida during this time, but will have minimal impacts on our weather.
Otherwise, high pressure will sustain a clear sky and light wind overnight. Generally a dry and stable profile into Friday with high pressure drifting through. Thought about upgrading the Thumb region to a freeze warning (temperatures reaching into the 28-32 degree range), but with the uncertainty in the clouds and dew pts still remaining somewhat elevated (mid/upper 30s) decided against it and will hold on to temperatures just approaching freezing. Return flow around the departing high will kick in tomorrow, but weaker sun angle and cold start will likely only translate to highs in the lower 60s, based on 925 mb temps around 10 C.
740 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern even with a very weak cold front moving into N GA Tonight. The ridge is weaken a bit today but a reinforcing ridge will build into the area from the eastern great lake states through Sat. The frontal system just weakens as the ridge just build right over it and keep the main area of moisture north of our area through the short term. Made slight adjustments accordingly and with a late period advance of an amplifying upper trough digging into the southeast CONUS by Thursday.
Warmer temperatures are expected due to low level southerly flow returning and mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
We adjusted cloud cover to reflect latest satellite and we generally followed the lower condensation pressure deficits on the RAP's 290K surface which shows these clouds moving north overnight. A warming trend will continue into Friday as southerly flow brings warmer air into the region. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, except for the northeast Arrowhead, which will only reach the lower 50s.
High pressure over northwest Illinois will move east across northern Indiana tonight and to the eastern great lakes Friday. An upper disturbance over the lower Mississippi may bring a few showers southern Indiana late Friday night night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 80 61 79 / 0 20 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 78 58 77 / 0 20 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 56 77 58 76 / 0 30 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 74 52 73 / 0 10 30 30.
Temperatures overnight should remain nearly steady as the low level cloud shield remains in place across the region. lows in the low/mid 50s to near 60 degrees should be common from north to south over the CWA.
The low level moisture has decreased since 24 hours ago with a PWAT of 1. A broad area of high pressure extending over the east coast will keep a northeast wind flow over the area and mostly dry conditions overnight.
1134 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Mid afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis had shifted east toward the Great Lakes and return flow had become established over the Plains. This should lead to much warmer temperatures for Friday over the area with some increase in high level clouds.
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure centered over Illinois will move over the local area tonight and then shift to New England on Friday.
Low temps should range from the low 40s to low 50s tonight. Temperatures should be a little warmer Fri despite increasing cloud cover and some rain showers with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
721 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Showers will come to an end by early evening as a cold front moves through the region. That front will usher in noticeably cooler air for tonight and Friday, with areas of frost and freezing temperatures Friday night.
Front not expected to move further south, and will eventually wash out as High pressure to our north moves further east and strengthens the east to southeast flow over the region.
642 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 A warming trend will continue into Friday as southerly flow brings warmer air into the region. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, except for the northeast Arrowhead, which will only reach the lower 50s.
/ISSUED / Moist convection continues to wane in intensity this evening over the northern counties near effective surface cold front stalling across nrn LA into central TX.
19z/2pm surface dewpoints are in the upper 30s and lower 40s, and these are generally the low temperature readings expected overnight. While the high will shift eastward on Friday, its influence will still be strongly felt across the Great Lakes/Midwest.
739 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure centered over Illinois will move over the local area tonight and then shift to New England on Friday.
Temp values look pretty good with lows in the low 60s where the heavier cloud cover will be close to the front and the upper 50s where only high clouds are expected in the southeast.
810 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A dry cold front will cross NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. The main cold front was located from eastern Tennesse NE across central Virginia at mid-evening. The milder lows of the warmer models appear most likely given the mixing of the boundary layer with the cold frontal passage, then the increase in cloudiness later tonight. Otherwise, it will remain dry with low to mid-level ridging centered over the area.
721 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will build into the area tonight and Friday bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
644 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Surface map this afternoon had high pressure centered over eastern IA/northwest IL. For tonight, high pressure will drift into the Great Lakes region which will set up southerly winds across our region overnight, especially west of the Mississippi River. The rest of the area should see lows in the lower/middle 30s. A breezy and seasonably mild day is on tap for Friday on the backside of the departing high and in advance of low pressure moving across the Northern Plains. Models indicating a push of southerly low level moisture transport into the area Friday night ahead of the cold front moving from the Dakotas into MN.
Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal flow over Texas and a shallow trough from the central Rockies to the Baja Peninsula. Expect the front to remain in the vicinity and dissipate during this period as the upper trough moves across the region.
552 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A weak flat ridge of high pressure will push through the area and allow dry and seasonably warm conditions to prevail through the short term period.
Southerly winds will strengthen during the day as a lee side trough develops.
To the west a trough axis is present, currently extending from Nebraska southwestward to New Mexico. Meanwhile at the surface, an area of high pressure is centered over northern Illinois with a cold front extending from eastern Quebec southwestward through central Mississippi. Around the Mid-South, clouds associated with the surface front have lessened in their coverage, while some mid to upper level clouds advance from the west downstream of the aforementioned upper level trough. Clouds will increase in coverage overnight as the upper trough continues toward the region.
These clouds have kept temperatures a little warmer and looking upstream a blanket of clouds should prevail across this region through tonight so pushed those temperatures up a couple of degrees.
Expect slight cooling Friday with high pressure weakening aloft.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE BUILDING OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. Warmer temperatures are expected due to low level southerly flow returning and mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
1036 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure will build back into the region overnight and Friday.
955 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure will build across the region tonight providing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Patchy frost will develop by morning across some of the cooler locations. High level clouds increase from the south late, but expect that this late timing and the fact that the clouds will be thin, will enable frost formation in ILN/s cooler ne counties. Highs will be close to normal, ranging from the lower 60s ne to the upper 60s sw.
A mixture of MVFR-VFR CIGs overnight, with the lower CIGs really affecting ALI-VCT late in the night and then possibly LRD toward sunrise. A mid/upper level high pressure system is ctrd east of S TX and across the NW Gulf today. The high pressure continues to influence the weather across S TX by suppressing deep convection. A long wave trough oriented from the SW U. By this evening the higher PWATs ill shift farther west bringing a slight chc of convection to the Rio Grande Plains. As the upper trough approaches S TX, the upper jet begins to help provide upper support and combine with an unstable airmass to produce isol/sct SHRA's/TSRA's across the eastern CWA.
Warm frontal band of precip extended across the north, from near Baker City to McCall. Little if any rain is expected south of Burns, Ontario, and Idaho City through tonight with the bulk of the rain (and high elevation snow) continuing across the higher terrain in the north. Precip will overspread the area on Friday along and ahead of a cold front.
1126 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A positively-tilted trough currently located over the southern High Plains will progressively shift eastward tonight. With a relatively dry atmosphere still in place from the influence of high pressure just to the east, the deepest moisture resides well to the south and west of the CWA. With the increase in moisture and cloud cover, lows tonight will be much warmer, with some areas rebounding prior to sunrise.