Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 1037 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will shift east today which will allow southerly winds to bring warmer temperatures into the area. Expect highs to finally make it to or slightly above freezing this afternoon. /issued 308 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Another cold night across the Midsouth with skies clear under high pressure. bringing warmer air into northeast Arkansas this hour. Walnut Ridge is showing 8kts and a balmy 17F. The Midsouth being just to the north will see southwest winds of generally 5 to 15 mph and the start of warmer boundary layer air surging out of Texas. Temperatures will reach close to freezing today.
/issued 1005 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Temperatures across the region remain below freezing this morning but this will change in the next hour or so. The ridge will move off to the east today and tonight.
1240 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Low pressure, well off the Mid Atlantic coast late this morning, will track east northeast farther out to sea this afternoon while high pressure builds in from the west.
Unlike yesterday we will start the day in the about 15 to 20 degrees warmer in the teens. Friday, temperatures will warm considerably, as weak upper level ridging will build into the region, modest WAA will persist, and snowpack should begin to be whittled down on Thursday.
1032 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018 Overnight water vapor imagery depicted a upper level ridge axis from southern CA to central MT with prevailing northwest flow aloft. Upper ridge of high pressure will shift east across the CWFA today and be located over the eastern Great Plains and Midwest Friday. At this time, confidence is high for high winds to develop late tonight across the north Snowy Range foothills, and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning. The upper ridge is progged to shift to the east of our area by Friday with an increasingly active southwesterly upper flow ahead of the next system setting up.
Axis of large dome of cold high pressure eases eastward over the deep south tonight.
1005 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Temperatures across the region remain below freezing this morning but this will change in the next hour or so. The ridge will move off to the east today and tonight.
An increase in cirrostratus spilling over the top of a SW-NE oriented H300 ridge axis NW of the CWA further increases confidence that temperatures in the north will be on the cooler side.
This dry airmass, combined with ridging initiating aloft, make for a simple forecast.
High pressure will keep dry weather over central Indiana into the weekend, and warming temperatures through the weekend.
1259 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 The warming trend is underway with high pressure off to our south and east.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over southern LA/MS with lee troughing over eastern CO/NM. This wave is expected to move out across the high Plains Sun morning and into eastern Nebraska by Sun evening. While a brief period of rain/snow mix can't be ruled out, lack of an elevated warm layer should limit sleet or freezing rain accumulation for areas that do see some precip.
A warm day is on tap as most of the CWA will be ahead (on the warm side) of a developing/approaching cold front. Breezy, mild wx today ahead of approaching Pacific cold front.
The one exception could be on the downslope side of the Buffalo Ridge in parts of southwest MN where winds may be a bit breezy. For lows tonight, used a combination of guidance readings which picked up on terrain features, which keeps river valleys much cooler than exposed terrain. Friday continues to look like an exceptionally warm January day, with zonal flow aloft under a broad ridge of high pressure.
Arctic high pressure will slowly build toward the southeast United States. Clockwise flow around the high will bring southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph today. Today Through Friday Night Arctic high pressure will very slowly build toward the southeast United States the next couple of days. While below average temperatures remain in the forecast today, readings will climb above freezing at most locations.
Highs in the low to mid 30s. Even though model soundings indicate a dry low layer went ahead and included a slight chance for freezing rain or mix for the midnight to 6am Friday morning time frame. Then an upper trough off the CA coast will move into the Southern Plains by 12Z Sun. Upper level trough over BC will approach the area Fri. Very light precipitation is expected with the trough mainly in the northern Red River Valley. Longwave low amplitude upper level ridge over the western US will build a bit through the period while a longwave trough over northeast Canada will deepen a bit and extend toward the central and southern US. Result is a low amplitude ridge/trough over western North America/central and eastern North America respectively.
An upper level ridge will build into the region behind this system with much above normal temperatures expected. With limited snow cover, leaned toward warmer model guidance. Again, with limited snow cover, used warmer model guidance like the ECMWF.
1252 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018 Water vapor shows large trof just off the west coast with upper ridge axis extending through the Central Rockies through the Northern Plains. Broad surface trof over our region resulting in W/SW downslope flow with early afternoon temps in the 40s and 50s. Temps may be a couple degrees cooler on Friday with thermal ridge shifting to our east.
Aloft: NW flow was over the rgn with a moderate-amplitude ridge extending from Srn CA to the Canadian Prairies. A trof was over the E Pac. The ridge will deamplify further and flatten as it crests over the rgn tomorrow. The base of the Pac trof will approach CA by 00Z/Sat and it will be a player here this wkend. Aloft: The trof that moves into CA/NV Sat night will progress thru the Desert SW and deepen as it lifts NE across KS Sun into Sun night. the pattern is transitioning to a -PNA (Wrn trof/Ern ridge).
A fairly strong short wave trough over the Great Lakes states as of 20z will continue to move eastward tonight and cross the region late tonight into early Friday. The passage of this short wave trough and possible attendant snow showers would be roughly between 09z and 13z. Any snow showers will quickly end early Friday morning followed by partly sunny skies (there will be periods of clouds with ample 850mb moisture around) with highs about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday.
301 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Despite the warmer southerly winds returning to the region, clear skies will allow temps to drop back below freezing, into the 20s tonight. On Friday, upper level trof moves off to the east and will see warmer temps aloft move in and mix down, so south to southwest surface winds to pickup a bit under sunny skies and allow temps to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Byrd Warmer weather to persist through the weekend due to the south to southwest winds.
The axis of an upper level trough extending from Quebec to the Southeast Conus continues to move east of the area with surface and upper level ridging building into the region. The snowcover should factor into the picture again tonight with high pressure and light winds. Temperatures should moderate further into the low to mid 40s for most locations or near climatological normals.
257 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Quiet weather continues in the short term as a ridge across the Rockies flattens into a zonal pattern tomorrow. A fairly dense cirrus shield has topped the ridge overspread the forecast area this afternoon so skies will be mostly to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower to mid 20s.
There is another trough across Texas that will drift slowly eastward throughout the short- term forecast. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley with the ridge axis extending northeastward along the Appalachians.
Although parts of our forecast area will dip down into the upper teens and low 20's tonight, the warmer temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow will limit hard freeze concerns. High temperatures will be close to 50 tomorrow afternoon with the return of southerly winds and warmer air off the Gulf of Mexico.
317 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Under clear skies, all but one site has broken the freezing mark as of 3 PM/21Z (Winchester which is still stuck at 30). That said, with dewpoints rising into the mid and upper teens, some patchy freezing fog is also possible, especially near waterways, and this will be included in the forecast.
Southwest winds of 5 to 15 MPH are expected, with the Buffalo Ridge seeing stronger winds and downsloping leading to temperatures rising into the 40s. With the upper level ridging in place and relative warm airmass, temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s overnight which is well above normal for this time of year.
128 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 A weak upper level low pressure area in the Rio Grande River Valley will continue to move east tonight and be replaced by an upper level ridge of high pressure on Friday. More fair skies and moderating temperatures will continue Friday underneath the ridge.
301 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Southwest winds will continue across the area tonight and tomorrow as high pressure sits across the southeastern US and a mid level ridge begins to build across the eastern half of the US. This will bring much warmer air into the area and should see temps above freezing tomorrow across the whole CWA. Temps will fall below freezing overnight again, but near to the level they have been the past week or so. Again, much warmer tomorrow with many areas getting into the 40s. Ridge will continue to build across the area with continued southwest flow on the sfc. This warmer air will melt a lot of the snow into Friday night and as an inversion begins to setup, some fog will be possible late Friday night and early Sat morning.
305 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure to our south and a dry atmosphere will keep our skies clear tonight and Friday. Lows tonight will still manage to drop down into the teens over the snow cover, but tomorrow we should be able to rebound to the lower 40s on SSW breezes. Low clouds swelling from the western Gulf into south Texas today will eventually make it into central Kentucky and far southern Indiana Friday night as the high to our south budges a bit to the east.
High pressure ridge in the Gulf Coast states with low pressure in Canada. This will bring warmer air into the cwa beginning the snow melt process.
1200 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Arctic high pressure will build into the region today into Friday.
Still not looking too promising for the stronger winds over the South Laramie range but will keep the High Wind Watch up and see if new model data/trends necessitate an upgrade. Varying amounts of high cloudiness will be over the area as ample moisture stream over the region ahead of an upper trough that will reach the west coast by late in the day.
146 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Low pressure, well off the Mid Atlantic coast late this morning, will track east northeast farther out to sea this afternoon while high pressure builds in from the west.
minimal; possible some freezing drizzle over the northern forecast area Friday. However the concern for drizzle and freezing drizzle increases as low lvls moisten overnight, while mid lvls remain dry (a 10kft dry layer above 800mb). Additionally models show some wind shear near the top of the low lvl mstr layer increasing the chances for drizzle. Will mention some drizzle/freezing drizzle over extreme nrn Lower Mi and east Upper Mi tonight and friday where deepest sfc moisture exists.
1037 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will shift east today which will allow southerly winds to bring warmer temperatures into the area. Expect highs to finally make it to or slightly above freezing this afternoon. /issued 308 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Another cold night across the Midsouth with skies clear under high pressure. bringing warmer air into northeast Arkansas this hour. Walnut Ridge is showing 8kts and a balmy 17F. The Midsouth being just to the north will see southwest winds of generally 5 to 15 mph and the start of warmer boundary layer air surging out of Texas. Temperatures will reach close to freezing today.
1131 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 Currently - A cold front blasted through the Keys last evening and most areas are still encountering fresh north breezes. High pressure responsible for these winds is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. Short Term Update - Fresh winds will gradually decrease and shift northeastwards late this morning through the afternoon as the previously mentioned high pressure system expands southeastwards, pushing the strongest belt of winds off to our south. High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will expand southeastwards through the afternoon.
This will lead to light drizzle and freezing drizzle, but with temps near freezing and little if no measurable precip, do not expect any impacts from that.
The warming trend continues across the local area today with high pressure building aloft and light westerly winds expected to continue to help modify the local airmass near the surface. did side towards the lower side of guidance in those snow covered areas. expect a more mild night across the region with most locations bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s. or about 10 degrees above seasonal norms! Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the period as the upper level ridge will be centered over the plains and most of the remaining snow cover across the local area will have already melted. things will begin to change as a cold front drops down from the north.
526 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an amplified pattern in place across the Nation, with a West Coast trough starting to translate east, impinging on the upper level ridge across the Plains States.
Afternoon radar imagery also showed scattered light snow showers in Malheur County and Owyhee County as upper low tracks slowly east through our CWA. Skies will partially clear this evening as the upper low moves out, but a following trough will increase clouds from the northwest late tonight. An area of showers in northwest Washington corresponds with that trough. The southern end of the trough might bring another dusting of snow to the Upper Treasure Valley Monday morning.
As a cold front moves in late tonight thru early Monday morning, flight conditions will improve but wind speeds will become northwesterly with gusts near or above 30 kt for 2-3 hours. Precipitation chances will end from west to east overnight as a cold front moves through. In contrast to the unseasonable dewpoints in our area today, moisture has been very low on the high plains today.
A cold front will approach the region at the tail end of the taf period, making it through KCLL and KUTS probably an hour or two before 00Z.
501 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 Surface observations as of 2pm Sunday afternoon indicate that the cold front has passed through all but the far southern reaches of the forecast area in Pagosa Springs. While radar echos do still indicate precipitation near and west of Grand Junction, dry air has already moved in bringing an end to the snow in all but the higher elevations. A blend of the lowest available MOS guidance was weighted heavily. Despite the rapid exit of our cold front tonight, some light snow showers will linger in the northern mountains on Monday as a separate weak plume of moisture from the Pacific hangs over the Wyoming border.
Upper trof over south central MT continues to produce areas of lighter snow across the east half of our cwa, though the stronger forcing from earlier today has ended as the mid level low shifts to the northeast. Other than freezing drizzle and light snow grains, areas from Rosebud to Sheridan Counties eastward have avoided precipitation today, courtesy of dry slot ahead of upper trof. In our far east near Baker and Ekalaka, be patient, as strong winds arrive by tomorrow and the trowal snowfall may persist for awhile, depending on how fast the low departs.
432 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 20z surface analysis had low over northeast CO with cold front northeast into central SD, where another weak low was located. Nice day over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Water vapour had upper low moving into south central MT - the first wave.
On Monday, the high pressure system will move off to the east, and south winds will develop as a cold front advances across the Ms Valley.
The latest Hi-Res ARW and NMM really keep the best chances at seeing scattered showers across the northwest during the day on Monday and feel that this is a good strategy based on the timing of the trough and the strength of the high pressure system. Rain chances will be on the increase on Monday night as an upper-level trough moves from the Plains towards the Great Lakes. Well ahead of the cold front, scattered showers driven by mid-level warm advection, are possible across the northern half of the forecast area through the daylight hours on Monday.
A cold front moving through the area Monday morning will shift surface winds to the north with an earlier shift in winds just off the deck creating LLWS. The front will knock temperatures down close to average, or about 15 to 20 degree cooler than today.
This evening the centers of the upper level trough are well to our north and east over British Columbia and eastern Montana.
Significant moisture advection will have to occur before measurable precipitation develops over the mid state, so as the cold front to our west pushes toward Middle Tennessee, expect showers to cross the Tennessee River close to 12Z Monday, with mainly light rain filling in from west to east, then tapering off Monday night as the front actually passes through.
/issued 345 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018/ A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida for tonight and Monday.
805 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 A ridge will be along the East Coast through Monday promoting dry weather.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an expansive ridge of high pressure, originating near Michigan, will extend southward down the Florida peninsula overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the western Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the middle of the country with the ridge axis extending northward from East Texas. A cold front will move through the region Monday.
At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen across northeast Colorado. Meanwhile a Pacific cold front will be surging east across the panhandle. The Pacific cold front should reach along a line from Bassett to North Platte to Imperial by mid evening, then continue east and be located from near O'Neill to Burwell by late evening. The GFS and ECMWF are pretty close in their solutions for Monday, with upper level low pressure centered across eastern South Dakota. The exception may be Boyd and Keya Paha counties where some snow could continue as precipitation begins to wrap back south around the upper low.
A cold front will drop southeastward into our area Monday afternoon and there may be a band of showers along this front. GKS The cold front will continue to move southeastward through our area Monday evening with a chance of lingering showers during the evening across southwest IL.
915 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 A warm front will continue to slowly creep toward the region overnight, bringing scattered light showers into the Tennessee Valley by early Monday morning. The increased cloud cover and moisture will help temperatures around 10-20 degrees warmer than last night, with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 40s in most areas.
700 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 Another quiet evening across the region with high pressure and dry air continuing to dominate. Winds will diminish overnight allowing for decent radiational cooling once again with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to lower 50s, except along north and east facing portions of Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor where the water will keep temperatures warmer.
Another gorgeous early Spring day underway across the lower Ohio Valley. GOES-16 reveals hardly any clouds in the sky, and a strong +1044mb high pressure over northern Canada continues to hold influence over the eastern 1/3 of the country. Clouds will begin increasing tonight as a cold front begins to approach from the west, though we'll remain through the overnight hours.
948 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure through Monday. Warm front Monday night.
923 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure will extend from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas through Monday night.
835 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 High pressure will bring fair skies and dry weather Monday.
636 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 A ridge will be along the East Coast today and Monday promoting dry weather.
MVFR cigs are prevalent, with a trend toward IFR expected before a cold front clears things out Monday morning from west to east.
A cold front will move through the area Monday morning, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 16 knots. Another Cold Front. Although another cold front will bring north winds to West Central Texas tomorrow, temperatures will remain above seasonal normals. Tomorrow, another cold front will bring gusty winds from the north, along with much drier air; nevertheless, this front will have either limited or no impact on highs tomorrow. Yes, some of our locations north of Interstate 20 could have slightly cooler highs than today, perhaps in the 65 to 70 range.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Monday with light winds.
Temperatures have ended up warmer than anticipated given the extra insolation although moisture remains relatively scarce. Given the strong synoptic forcing and increasing precipitation rates toward afternoon, some transition to snow seems reasonable in far northeast portions of the forecast area despite temperatures just above freezing. These will begin to slacken with the approach of the trof.
947 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Band of precipitation currently extends from the northern Red River Valley into west central MN, right along the low level jet and good mid-level frontogenesis. Reports so far have been a mixed bag of sleet, snow, rain, freezing rain. Temperatures in the northern counties are most likely to be freezing both air and road, while many spots further south have stayed warmer. Think that between precip bands there will be the possibility of drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the low level jet kicks in tonight, this will lift from south to north.
An upper trough over Western Washington will move inland tonight and showers will taper off Monday.
Mid to high level cloud bases were streaming southeastward from the Lower MS River Valley to the central Gulf coast to start the period. A weak mid level impulse embedded in an upper ridge to the west continues to track west over the mid to lower Mississippi River valley this afternoon. Surface winds will continue to veer to the southeast through Mon afternoon as the ridge of high pressure to the north shifts east.
Fog and drizzle continued in the southwest, but convection with rain, freezing rain, and snow with scattered thunder developed this afternoon in an arc from Beach/Medora across north central North Dakota, into Jamestown/Fargo area. The upper low moves southeast towards eastern South Dakota by Monday afternoon.
The rain is ahead of a warm front which will move into western sections of the forecast area tonight. Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 warmer tonight than last night with lows Monday morning in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. On Monday, a cold front will move into central Arkansas by the afternoon and reach western sections of the forecast area by early evening. Temperatures will remain above normal on Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s. On Monday night, the cold front will move through the forecast area with more showers expected mainly during the evening hours.