Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The influence of the upper ridge pattern over the Eastern Pacific is now being felt as the flow aloft and near the surface move in a clock-wise rotation. Upper air observational analysis showed a south to southeast flow which would indicate that the winds around moving around the high.
A cold front draped across the Midwest will continue to move in our direction, producing rain and a couple storms along the way. The main wx feature will be a cold front passage across the area on Monday.
528 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Much advertised cold front as of 22z was located across NE OK into NW and W TX early this evening. Upper trof axis digging sewd across the Plains this aftn will continue into tonight, driving a cold front into our region. While widespread severe weather is not expected due to the elevated nature of the storms, strong lift associated with the trof may allow for a few storms to produce some hail or an isold damaging wind gust across our far nrn areas. Much cooler and drier airmass will bring temps some 10 degrees or so below seasonal normals for Monday/Monday night and beyond.
616 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Cold front will move through Arkansas from northwest to southeast during the overnight hours, with storms along it, as well as precip behind it.
An upper ridge off the coast will build into the Pacific Northwest providing our area with a dry northerly flow through Monday. Temperatures will be warmer on Monday with highs near normal.
Cooler air, meanwhile, will continue advecting southward. This, combined with overcast skies for much of the day east of the Missouri River, will lead to high temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s on Monday. Beyond that, surface conditions are dominated by a large cold Canadian high pressure system that won't actually be centered over the CWA until late in the week.
Northeast to southwest oriented cold front with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms now extending through north Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and through the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Cold front is on track to move through the area on Monday.
A cold front draped across the Midwest will continue to move in our direction, producing rain and a couple storms along the way.
An upper level long wave trough in the central plains will continue to move south due to the momentum of a jet max and this set up continue to advect in cooler air throughout the day. Tonight an area of high pressure moves in from eastern Colorado so the winds should relax. Cooler air will start to get replaced by a warmer airmass from eastern Colorado on Tuesday.
1016 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Water vapor shows deep trof extending through the Northern Plains. Little change in the weather pattern expected through the week, with long wave trof gradually shifting into the eastern CONUS. On Tuesday, weak ridging in the northwest flow will allow temps to climb back up into the 70s and near 80, likely the warmest day of the week. Slightly cooler but dry conditions then expected to prevail the rest of the week and weekend. Little change in the weather pattern expected this week, with periodic dry cold fronts and gusty northwest winds leading to elevated fire weather conditions most days.
A cold front will bring rain to central Indiana today, along with much colder air.
In fact, light rain/drizzly conditions could persist into Tuesday morning on the Cumberland Plateau as the upper low swings in behind the front.
After 14z, a cold front will begin to move into the area.
Expect stratus will continue to expand across the rest of south Texas in the next couple of hours in advance of the cold front that has surged south into the northern Hill Country at this time. Cold front is expected to reach COT around 10Z, LRD/ALI/VCT around 12Z, and CRP at 13Z.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The main story in the short term will be a strong 500 mb trough ushering a cold front today. The greatest chance for rainfall will be along the Lower Rio Grande Valley and into the Gulf waters with conditions quickly drying out for the Valley in the evening and the waters by midnight. Temperatures should remain in the 70s for northeastern portions of the CWA with high in the low to mid 80s for the Lower Valley today before the frontal passage drops the entire CWA into the 70s and only rebounding into the low 80s for Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 50s north and the lower 60s near across the lower Valley.
357 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Strong 1030mb Pacific high pressure across Wyoming this morning will build slowly south into Colorado today and tonight. The RAP model shows an area of very dry air aloft moving through the region ahead of a warm front supporting the radiational cooling also. Thereafter, moisture will begin to increase as the warm front enters wrn Nebraska. The high temperature forecasts today and Tuesday use the same guidance blend plus bias correction for highs in the 60s today and 70s Tuesday.
To our west, a line of showers and thunderstorms are moving along a cold front. Temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 80s. No showers are showing up on radar at this time, but an upper trof continues to move through the area. Meanwhile, a cold front is plunging through Missouri at this time. Much cooler air will filter into the region behind the front. A large upper trof will set up over the Midwest behind the front. Models are showing an upper level low developing within the trof by Tuesday as it moves into the Mid-South. The upper low could set off some showers across the area.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 30s across far eastern Colorado with mid 30s to low 40s elsewhere across the area. we'll have breezy to windy northwest winds during the day as the pressure gradient remains pretty tight in between low pressure over the Great Lakes and a large high amplitude ridge centered over Oregon. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s to near 40. the forecast area remains in between a large scale trough across the eastern United States and high pressure over the west. High temperatures are expected to be in the 75 to 80 degree range with low temperatures in the low to upper 40s.
130 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Rain chances will increase Monday into Tuesday with the approach and passage of surface cold front. Warm, moist advection will persist within strengthening SW flow with the approaching upper trough/sfc cold front. Rain chances will be best with the passage of the surface cold front, which is progged to cross the region late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
/Issued 854 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/ A strong cold front continues to plow through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening.
High pressure is beginning to rebuild over Nevada, which will lead to dry and progressively warmer conditions through the week. Cool northerly flow over NV this morning will be displaced by high pressure which is building in from the west. Warmer on Tuesday with highs in the low 80s for most valley locations.
Strong cold front with windy conditions tonight. A strong cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing much cooler and drier air for Monday. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees, and temperatures will be much cooler on Monday with highs in the 70s area-wide. High temperatures Tuesday will feel much cooler, in the low to mid 70s, with sunny skies.
1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Cyclonic mid level flow around a closed low over Ontario and Manitoba was the main feature of the weather pattern over the central U. Further west a mid level ridge was set up just off the west coast as another closed low spun over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a cold front had push southeast and was set up from central OK into central MO at 20Z. However the continued advection of dry air and a stabilizing boundary layer is expected to limit any instability by the mid evening hours and dry out the low level column.
A strong cold front pushes through the area from northwest to southeast late Monday evening. At the surface, high pressure is shifting eastward and a cold front is moving over the Mississippi Valley. This front is expected to push through the lower Mississippi River Valley during the day Monday, approaching southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by early Monday evening. Once the front passes, any strong thunderstorm threat quickly diminishes as gusty northwest winds usher in a much drier and cooler airmass.
/Today through Tuesday/ Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front to continue migrating southeast through deep east Texas, north Louisiana, and southern Arkansas through the remainder of the morning. High pressure behind the front to bring strong northwest winds around 20 mph with higher gusts throughout the day. Temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s today, falling into the upper 40s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 50s elsewhere tonight. Highs on Tuesday to climb into the lower to middle 70s.
Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows the deepening trough centered over the Central Plains that aided in bringing the area some light rain earlier this morning. This deepening trough will be aided by northwesterly flow aloft in channeling in cooler air and gustier winds over the area this week, with gusts today reaching around 35 mph. Highs Tuesday will range from the low- to- mid 70's and will mark the warmest day of the week.
1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 A cold front was entering the Ozarks this afternoon from the northwest, forcing an area of deep convection along this feature. We will be launching a 20z RAOB to provide the evening shift and users with a snapshot of our environment, and take another look at the low level cape/shear combination.
One more warm day today with temps in the mid to upper 80s and possibly a few 90s around with compressional heating ahead of a cold front. Winds will shift with the passage of a cold front Monday evening to northerly and rapidly rise to around 25kt with gusts to 35kt.
Temperatures will be the warmest in the MO River valley, with highs only in the lower 50s in southwest Minnesota. A short lived, but intense, burst of warm advection will precede this trough, and we'll likely see temperatures quickly jump into the 70s. Winds won't be as strong, but dew points again may mix down into the lower 30s.
A strong upper ridge of high pressure will settle in across the western third of the US and remain through the week, keeping Colorado dry with predominant north to northwest flow in place.
334 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A strong cold front is moving through the Midsouth, currently located along a line from Union Springs, TN to West Memphis, Arkansas, to Palestine, AR. A deep trough will remain in place over the Eastern half of the US. A closed, progressive upper level low will track from Minnesota, down the Western side of the Mississippi River Valley, to South Alabama by Midweek, then up the East Coast after Midweek.
159 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A ridge of high pressure will continue to expand across the region resulting in warming daytime temperatures and cool nights. Huston Rather benign weather in the extended as high pressure will dominate over much of the intermountain west. McKaughan VFR conditions will prevail under a ridge of high pressure. Huston A ridge of high pressure will expand across the region resulting in warmer daytime temperatures and dry conditions with cool overnight lows.
Today Through Tuesday Night The cold front is progressing SE through the state early this Mon morning.
Today through Tuesday: The backside of the upper-level trough continues to slide southeast this afternoon, resulting in clear skies over much of the state of Washington and northern Idaho today. Surface temperatures tonight should be a few degrees warmer however, we don't have the recent precipitation to keep the surface saturated, and with not much wind to stir the boundary layer up it's possible fog/frost will develop. High pressure ridging will continue to build in from the west, as seen from the latest satellite imagery.
1010 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 Showers and a thunderstorm or two have begun moving into northeast and central Missouri this afternoon along and behind a southeastward moving cold front. The cold front, currently stretched from eastern Kansas through northern Missouri into northern Illinois will continue to drop south through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, driven by a digging mid-level trough. MRM The passage of this cold front will mark a distinct pattern shift for the mid-Mississippi Valley. The mid-level trough pushing the cold front through the forecast area today will linger over the eastern CONUS. Combined with a ridge building in over the western CONUS, this will keep the area in northwest flow and thus largely dry and cool through the end of the period.
Temperatures will top out around 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the low to mid 50s. The upper ridge across the west and troughing to the east will leave the Upper Midwest in a region of northwest flow. This warmer air will occur during a period of 850 mb warm air advection advecting out of South Dakota.
Today llv moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front allowing for bkn low VFR cigs (cu/stratocu). CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 55 66 50 70 / 80 80 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 55 62 51 67 / 60 90 60 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 55 63 50 69 / 80 90 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 56 61 51 64 / 40 90 90 50 20.
157 AM PDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Quite a different feel to the new week compared to last as an upper level trough builds across the eastern U. with ridge building across the west coast. Latest model runs generally favor keeping the higher chances for getting wet across northern parts of the region through Wed. With the swing to northwest flow will come cooler air - significantly cooler by the weekend.
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows cyclonic flow dominating the weather pattern over the central CONUS with a 100 to 110-kt jet streak wrapping around the base of the trough in southern Kansas. These clouds drop through the area early this morning, with daytime mixing, coupled with the CAA and proximity of the H300 trough axis, resulting in a high-based cumulus/stratocumulus field developing by mid to late morning. A secondary vort lobe rotates along the backside of the main H500-300 longwave tonight, bringing mid-level clouds until after 06Z, at which point skies should clear and lows fall into the low 40s as the H850 thermal low (of -1 C) passes just to the east.
The upper trough over the Great Plains will continue to dig through much of the MS River Valley late tnt-Mon AM. The models do have differences with the deepening and track of the low, but overall the trend is for more of a prolonged period of light to mdt rain for ern WI tnt-Mon.
1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A cold front is dropping SE through the state early this Mon morning.
There were only nominal forecast changes in the short-term forecast, mainly related to the latest timing of a cold front as it marches eastward. This will shove the cold front out of the area, dry continental air will spill in and limit the overnight rain chances. Surface cold front will continue to slowly slide southeast across northeast Indiana. Lagging upper trough will result in strengthening mid/upper frontogenesis forcing across northeast Illinois/western Indiana overnight with expanding area of rain affecting KSBN and eventually KFWA toward mid morning.
417 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 West/southwest flow aloft over region courtesy of combination of narrow ridge axis aloft over the southern peninsula south of troughing setting up over the eastern CONUS. Weak surface ridging over the western Atlantic extends into the region with light east/southeast flow over the state.
For the short term period, the Tri State region will be wedged in between a strong amplified upper ridge to the west, and a slow moving upper low/trough currently over Midwest/Great Lks region. At the surface, high pressure expected to remain over the north central Rockies allowing for NW flow to persist as well.
309 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Fair weather prevails throughout the week, associated with a dry and stable area of high pressure located west of the Rocky Mountains. An unusually strong long wave ridge has developed over the Pacific west coast, placing our region under a dry northwest flow aloft. Furthermore, skies will remain mostly clear aside from some higher clouds drifting through the ridge at times.
Fair weather prevails throughout the week, associated with a dry and stable area of high pressure located west of the Rocky Mountains. An unusually strong long wave ridge has developed over the Pacific west coast, placing our region under a dry northwest flow aloft. Furthermore, skies will remain mostly clear aside from some higher clouds drifting through the ridge at times.
/issued 417 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ West/southwest flow aloft over region courtesy of combination of narrow ridge axis aloft over the southern peninsula south of troughing setting up over the eastern CONUS. Weak surface ridging over the western Atlantic extends into the region with light east/southeast flow over the state.
319 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 High amplitude upper pattern with ridge over the west coast and trof digging through the Great Lakes will remain over North America through the week. Winds are also not expected to be much of concern with high pressure sliding into the northern plains.
704 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 A closed upper level low is currently moving south from Manitoba into the Northland, promoting the formation of scattered showers that have started to pop up in northern St. By the afternoon, a few rumbles of thunder are possible within the showers before they slowly dissipate in the evening as the low moves south.
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Quite a different feel to the new week compared to last as an upper level trough builds across the eastern U. with ridge building across the west coast. Latest model runs generally favor keeping the higher chances for getting wet across northern parts of the region through Wed. With the swing to northwest flow will come cooler air - significantly cooler by the weekend.
652 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 This morning, an upper-level trough is digging southward into the Great Plains and Midwest. At the surface, an occluding area of low pressure is positioned over Ontario, and its associated cold front is pushing through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs this afternoon will be notably cooler - about 10 degrees below normal and what was experienced yesterday afternoon. The large scale pattern amplifies as we get into Tuesday, and the previously mentioned trough settles into the eastern U. as a ridge builds along the West Coast.
An advisory will run through 9am today as better lift will move into the area as a cold front moves through. One more warm day today with temps in the mid to upper 80s and possibly a few 90s around with compressional heating ahead of a cold front. Winds will shift with the passage of a cold front Monday evening to northerly and rapidly rise to around 25kt with gusts to 35kt.
1026 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Mean-layer ridging has been squashed to the south and now stretches west to east from Mexico to the extreme western North Atlantic. The low-level ridge axis is across South Florida and the Keys, lending to variable breezes across the island chain and marine observation platforms. Although instead of troughiness, its more akin to weak southeasterlies jamming into the lack of flow along the ridge axis. From synopsis, light to gentle, mostly southeast breezes will prevail through Tuesday morning, becoming southerly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.
A weak high pressure ridge extends SE from the Carolina coast to NE of the Bahamas this morning.
629 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 Even cooler today as northerly flow aloft and close proximity of the upper trough, coupled with 850mb temperatures falling to near 0C, bring another 10-15 degree drop in high temperatures. However through the rest of the work week, dry, breezy, and cooler autumn weather is the theme as we remain under the influence of dry northwest flow aloft and the aforementioned broadening upper trough meandering eastward.
305 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020 For the short term period, the Tri State region will be wedged in between a strong amplified upper ridge to the west, and a slow moving upper low/trough currently over Midwest/Great Lks region. At the surface, high pressure expected to remain over the north central Rockies allowing for NW flow to persist as well.
/Issued 407 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/ Cooler and drier weather will prevail across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this week.
As the upper level low moves off to the east of the region upper level ridging will begin to build in from the west. Clear skies and light winds will allow for most areas to drop to near or below freezing tonight. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A dry and significant warming trend will take place this week, with much warmer than normal temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
A pronounced upper level low pressure just south of the Red River in northeast Texas late this morning will continue to progress southeastward towards the forecast area overnight. This should continue this afternoon with the low clouds gradually filling in to the west along the coast. As moisture attempts to overspread from the southeast in response to the approaching upper low, it will result in evaporative cooling through the lower half of the atmosphere. The lower cigs over the western Florida Panhandle should gradually expand westward later this evening with IFR cigs expected at both KMOB and KBFM later tonight through Tuesday morning.
A cold front has pushed south across the area, along with low clouds and fog from NE WY to the Black Hills. Another cold front will cross the area tonight, shifting southerly winds to the northwest.
Southerly return flow sets up across central South Dakota during the early overnight hours, and will be spreading eastwards throughout the overnight hours which will be advecting slightly warmer air into the area. A few hi-res models are showing light snowfall getting down to the highway 14 corridor, but models have been fairly consistent with the better moisture values being north of the area, so don't think anything more than flurries is likely at this time.
High pressure will remain in control this evening. Overnight, a distant northern stream upper trough will bring a cold front into northern Indiana. A stronger northern stream system will bring a cold front through the area Tuesday night.
Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-15 kts becoming more northerly this afternoon behind a cold front.
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 Building high pressure will support dry and seasonable conditions through the majority of the week. The last of the cloud cover has eroded/moved onto the east as high pressure builds across the region, and wind backs to the S. Mostly sunny skies are then expected through the rest of the day under the high. High pressure should maintain dry weather across the area through tonight with lows dropping into the mid 20s under clear skies and light winds.
208 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Latest 19z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from over Lake Superior to southern Iowa. Parade of short wave troughs continue this week with lower amplitude flow.
Areas where cloud cover lingers may see temperatures a few degrees warmer.
A low pressure system is currently located just to the west of the state and is expected to push through the state during the day today. Through the early morning hours of Mon, ongoing reduced visibilities and below freezing temps wl result in some patchy freezing fog over portions of N/Ern, Ern, Cntrl, and Srn AR.