Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures will continue to remain very warm as they will range from around 90 across the immediate east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. For Monday, the trough lingers across the region.
TAFs are all one-liners for this forecast period as high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern, providing light winds and some scattered high clouds. Discussion: High pressure centered across the Southern Appalachians tonight will result in a clear sky and calm, weak down valley winds. Upper level 500mb heights will increase to around 590 to 594 dam as the upper ridge expands eastward through the afternoon and 850mb temperatures climb 2C to 3C warmer than observed on Sunday. This will result in slightly warmer surface max temperatures during the afternoon hours. With the low-level ridge remaining centered over the Mid-South and Southern Mississippi valley, moisture return will be limited as westerly low-level flow prevails across the Tennessee Valley.
Unseasonably strong trough leaves Nevada tonight. Freezing temperatures expected for the higher elevated valleys Monday morning.
646 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 (Tonight) The upper level pattern features a ridge the extends across much of Mississippi River Valley. This ridge is flanked by a closed low to the east and west. The closed low to the east is centered near New England with the one to the west located across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the cold front is now well to the south of the area and stretches from E-W along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints to the north of the front are bearable with most locations reporting surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Despite the lower dewpoints, temperatures have warmed quickly into the low to mid 80s early this afternoon in the dry atmosphere.
Likewise, dew points are comfortably milder in the lower to mid 60s over our NE half with upper 60s and lower 70s farther south and west in East Texas and Toledo Bend Country where some spotty showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. As the boundary becomes more diffuse and the center of the upper level ridge axis migrates closer on Monday, expect intensifying heat once again with highs returning to the mid and upper 90s to lower 100s over much of the region.
803 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain in control of the region through Monday providing seasonable temperatures for mid-June.
608 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next few days. Winds remain southerly with the high pressure ridge axis to our east.
/22/ Strong high pressure ridging aloft is building over the region today and this will continue through Monday. A very large, anomalous 596dm upper ridge will be entrenched across the region, budging very little through the week.
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
942 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
618 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
All operational models, except perhaps the Canadian, were a little too cool with the 00Z KMPX sounding 1-2C warmer at 925 mb. Thermal ridging will move overhead Monday with another 1-2C gain at 925 mb. We will remain under the ridge as the heat wave continues. As we get into Monday evening though a cold front will move across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. Along this front support by some areas of vorticity along the edge of the ridge aloft will provide a location for convective initiation.
551 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Latest water vapor imagery was showing the high amplitude ridge extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into south central Canada. Latest run of the HREF continues to show that this upper ridge will move slowly east across the central CONUS through Monday night. The combination of strong subsidence produced by the ridge and very dry air through a deep layer of the atmosphere will keep the forecast dry through Monday night. With the warmer day today, do not expect temperatures to fall as low tonight as they did last night. By tomorrow, winds will turn out of the southwest and 850mb temperatures will increase by 1-2C, so will keep highs in the low- mid 90s.
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
611 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A ridge is in place from central Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough over the Northeast and another one over Great Basin/Rockies. Water vapor shows a subtle feature over the moisture axis on the back side of the ridge working north into western Kansas; this has led to some scattered showers and storms in southwest Kansas. With the ridge in place, above normal temperatures persist across Kansas by around five degrees with values in the 90s.
742 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A Canadian high pressure system will continue settling south through the region overnight. Warmer and more humid air will slowly build into the Ohio Valley through the first half of the upcoming week, with hot and humid conditions expected once again by midweek.
/Issued 308 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through tomorrow. NListemaa Baker Starting out with a midweek heat wave thanks to being on the eastern side of a persistent broad upper ridge.
This drier air will result in cooler temperatures late tonight into Monday. (Tonight through Sunday) H5 ridge will maintain control over the weather this coming week.
A sharp mid/upper level ridge will continue to have influence over the PAH forecast area in the short term, as heights gradually increase. Mon is expected to be noticeably warmer than today. in the lower half of the 90s for highs. Lows tonight will be around 60 in most cases, with lows Mon night about 7-8 degrees warmer.
644 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A 700 to 500 mb ridge of high pressure is continuing to push eastward into the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed along a low level jet with an incoming warm front from with enough shear to support growth up to a general 35 kft agl this afternoon.
Otherwise, high pressure reigns supreme. The ridge will slightly strengthen tomorrow as it becomes more oriented over the Lower MS River Valley. This will result in slight height rises and increasing 1000-850mb thicknesses supportive of warmer temperatures.
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 An upper trough will advance slowly east across the Great Basin tonight through Monday. A cold front will move into the northwest during the day. Then, near and behind the advancing cold front late Monday afternoon and evening. Activity will diminish by late evening as the cold front advances through the forecast area.
822 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Flow of subtropical moisture continues across the area in advance of an upper level trough. Across the higher terrain there is only isold showers. The main trough axis lifts to the north Monday night accompanied by a cold front.
951 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A Canadian high pressure system will continue settling south through the region overnight. Warmer and more humid air will slowly build into the Ohio Valley through the first half of the upcoming week, with hot and humid conditions expected once again by midweek.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure will remain in place through the overnight hours, keeping dry and cooler conditions in place for one more night.
/Issued 139 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ Upper level high was centered over the lower Missouri River Valley. Upper level trough was pushing east through the Great Basin. On Monday, the upper high slides a little father south to allow the upper trough over the Great Basin to lift out through the northern High Plains.
823 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Severe thunderstorm threat moved well to our south and east early this evening with now an unusual deep upper trough lingering over the western states to move through the area the next couple days.
/22 Prior discussion below: Strong high pressure ridging aloft is building over the region today and this will continue through Monday. A very large, anomalous 596dm upper ridge will be entrenched across the region, budging very little through the week.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A frontal trough offshore of DAB may lead to showers and storms coming onshore tonight, but high-res guidance lacks agreement in development of this feature, so have not included VCSH/VCTS/TEMPOs with the 00Z TAF package.
1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next few days. Winds remain southerly with the high pressure ridge axis to our east.
South-southwest winds may gust 30 to 40 MPH as an upper trough pushes into the northern plains. This upper trough will then likely allow scattered thunderstorms to develop near and ahead of an approaching cold front late Monday afternoon into the evening. This will usher in cooler air for most of the area, but southeaster parts of Nebraska may still reach the upper 90s.
Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 70s across the region with a few locations in the lower 80s. /issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ The Mid-South will enter a repetitive weather pattern over the coming days as an upper level ridge remains in place. This will bring moisture back into the area, which combined with the upper level ridge will lead to a spell of higher temperatures throughout the CWA.
A subtle boundary has set up just west of the Kansas/Missouri border this afternoon, leaving our forecast area on the "cooler" side with surface temps and surface dew points in the mid to upper 80s and upper 50s to lower 60s, respectively. The forecast remains status quo as the location of the steep upper level ridging remains in place. As this ridge shifts slightly east overnight and through Monday, we will see an influx of moisture by Tuesday. Forecast highs on Monday will sit in the lower 90s while the highs Tuesday jumping into the upper 90s across the forecast area with heat indices between 100 and 105.
1249 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 (This evening through Monday) Southeasterly flow in the low levels has continued today, bringing in slightly higher moisture values across parts of the area, resulting in temperatures being a degree or two cooler so far this afternoon. Lows tonight will be similar to the last several nights, mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Today Through Tuesday Night High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Natural State through the short term period. High pressure will likely be centered over AR the next couple of days keeping dewpoints relatively low compared to where they have been.
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Discussion/Marine --Early Monday Morning showers possible-- Moisture streaming southward on the eastward side of a building ridge continues to dissipate as showers move into the dry, stable air of Central and Southwest Michigan. -- Warm and Dry through the week -- The upper level ridge will continue to move over the region through Tuesday bringing a dry and hot air mass over the region.
326 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Current temperatures are running 2-4 degrees cooler than last night but range considerably, from the middle 50s near the Tennessee river to the low 70s at Memphis and Oxford. Some guidance hints at the possibility of a weak front stalling near the Tennessee Kentucky state line midweek resulting is a chance of rain, but given the strength of the ridge, this scenario seems unlikely.
A broad trough over the northern Great Basin region continues to impact the weather over the forecast area today. This airmass will be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which may approach wind advisories thresholds through the early evening hours ahead of a cold front which will push west to east across the area overnight. As the main trough moves across Montana on Monday, dry, breezy and cool conditions are expected over the region, with the exception of an isolated shower/thunderstorm along the Continental Divide. The Intermountain West will be situated on the western edge of a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Central Plains.
151 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 A 700 to 500 mb ridge of high pressure is continuing to push eastward into the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed along a low level jet with an incoming warm front from with enough shear to support growth up to a general 35 kft agl this afternoon. Meanwhile, decent capping should inhibit any convective development Monday, but chances for some showers and thunderstorms will increase slightly by Monday night as the upper ridge breaks down with an approaching trough. Expect a reprieve from the heat in the wake of a cold front expected to move through on Tuesday night.
Aloft, the strong mid to upper level high pressure ridge from the Midwest to the Gulf coast prevails.
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
311 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Cooler and dry conditions will persist today.
A building ridge aloft over the E/Central CONUS over the next few days will lead to another period of above normal temperatures later this week across much of W/Central and SWFL.
Dew points this morning in the low 60s across the lower plains central Kansas counties would mix out readily into the mid and upper 50s, as temperatures climb into the upper 90s areawide, while the RAP13, 3kmNAM suggesting more pronounced downslope heating over the smoky hill basin and I-70 corridor where reaching or exceeding 100F is most probable in the CWA. With LAV guidance indicating gusts in the low 30âs knots neighborhood, gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range can be anticipated from Liberal to Garden City and Hays.
There is east-west flow aloft as H5 high pressure is centered across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
The steering flow around the western extent of the ridge will press the activity to the NE over the course of the evening with widespread showers and storms likely extending back to the east towards the Upper Trans-Pecos. Rain chances will linger into Tuesday west of the Pecos river, but expectation is a bit less coverage and less of a press to the east as the ridge begins flexing back.
304 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next few days. Winds remain southerly with the high pressure ridge axis to our east.
VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure dominating our weather. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 66 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 64 95 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 63 96 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 58 92 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Temperatures could possibly be a degree or two cooler on Monday as well, but with the lack of convection and mostly clear skies, temperatures should still easily warm into the low to mid 90s. As mid-level ridging builds over the short term, we'll be seeing more of the same, hot and dry. Remember to remain hydrated! Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower and middle 70s with dry conditions expected.
245 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will bring a seasonable day today with low humidity.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper level ridging will stay centered over the Mississippi Valley into tonight before gradually starting to slide westward throughout Tuesday towards the Texarkana region. For the surface, broad high pressure continues to stretch from the southeast CONUS into eastern Texas. Temperatures remain persistent with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s for portions of the Hill Country to as high as 102 elsewhere while overnight lows generally bottom out in the low to mid 70s. Diurnal mixing will allow for the low clouds to mix out or see ceilings at least lift to where some fair weather cumulus will be possible. Today compared to Tuesday looks to be the slightly more favored as Tuesday could start to see increased subsidence with the upper level ridge sliding westward.
145 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure will keep the area dry through the middle part of the week.
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure across the region will give way to an approaching warm frontal boundary late tonight and Tuesday.
850 mb temperatures overnight are in the lower to mid 20c range, effectively capping any chance for convection overnight.
This drier air will result in cooler temperatures late tonight into Monday.
At the surface, a fetch of Gulf moisture is observed from south to north through under the ridge. One storm has recently developed over southwestern KS within an area that appears to be a localized convergence of the low level flow but little shear will likely keep this or any storm that could develop into north central KS brief and pulse type. Over the next couple of days the ridge over the central CONUS breaks down but mean flow remains positioned over the northern tier.
216 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
1115 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Flow of subtropical moisture continues across the area in advance of an upper level trough. Across the higher terrain there is only isold showers. The main trough axis lifts to the north Monday night accompanied by a cold front. Tuesday, there is a general consensus among ensemble guidance that an upper ridge strengthens over the SE conus building gradually westward into CO with zonal flow aloft. Cloud cover and cooler temps aloft will keep highs closer to normal with low-mid 80s across the lower elevations and 60s/70s for the higher terrain.
1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
(Today and tonight) A large upper level high, currently centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, will remain in place today and tonight. With a bit of strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, highs today are expected to be at or slightly hotter than yesterday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
219 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, centered over the mid-west/great lakes region. Upper trough is currently moving over The Rockies, and southwest flow sits aloft the FA. A surface cold front has made its way through the area this morning, and we will see cooler temperatures to start the work week.
A sharp mid/upper level ridge will continue to have influence over the PAH forecast area in the short term, as heights gradually increase. Mon is expected to be noticeably warmer than today. in the lower half of the 90s for highs. Lows tonight will be around 60 in most cases, with lows Mon night about 7-8 degrees warmer. The ridge is forecast to retrograde slightly to the west, allowing the southern extent of WNW flow to set up across the region.
/Issued 308 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through tomorrow. NListemaa Starting out with a midweek heat wave thanks to being on the eastern side of a persistent broad upper ridge.
1245 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 A mostly dry warm front today and tonight, with heat returning Tuesday.
A large low pressure system that extends across Idaho will continue to produce isolated to scattered showers over the higher elevations through this evening. The showers will decrease in coverage overnight, but will persist in central Idaho near the center of the low. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, but still several degrees below normal. The low pressure producing these weather conditions will lift northeast this evening. The area of low pressure will move far enough northeast by late Monday evening, with widespread dry conditions expected.
Mid and upper clouds will increase this evening ahead of an approaching warm front. Warm frontal passage will occur on Monday. Will not include thunder as the low dewpoints and mid-level warm air result in essentially nil CAPE. Warm advection provides a return of seasonable temperature Tuesday night, when a mid-level wave riding down the front of the overspreading ridge may provide isolated showers and storms.
Daytime high temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s, and dewpoint temperatures will range from the middle to upper 70s through the end of the workweek.
304 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High amplitude upper ridge axis analyzed early this morning stretching the length of the Mississippi river basin. Northeast flank of this burgeoning upper height field proving modestly active early this morning, as an extremely veered low level jet migrating through the north-northwest flow engages the existing warm frontal slope. Steady inroads of a higher magnitude upper height field effectively works the surface warm front through this afternoon. Upper ridge axis takes residence tonight, ensuring very mild and dry overnight conditions within a sufficiently capped/stable nocturnal environment. A more pronounced period of warm/moist air advection this period then establishes the highest magnitude warmth for the Tuesday period - 850mb temps +23c.
We'll be in the low to mid 90s today and mid to upper 90s tomorrow. The higher temperatures and dew points in the upper 60s to 70 will cause heat indices to be in the 100 to 105 degree range across the area. This pattern will begin to break down Tuesday afternoon with the low lifting northeast and bringing a cold front toward the area.
1012 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper ridging has slide eastward, centered over Mississippi River Valley. Upper trough is crossing the Great Basin, with south/southwest flow over the High Plains. The upper trough will cross Montana tomorrow into North Dakota, with the next series of waves cross the CWA. MVFR and localized IFR ceilings will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD tonight behind a cold front.
Weak ridging will make for mostly dry conditions through Monday.
340 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
1027 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Latest water vapor imagery was showing the high amplitude ridge extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into south central Canada. Latest run of the HREF continues to show that this upper ridge will move slowly east across the central CONUS through Monday night. The combination of strong subsidence produced by the ridge and very dry air through a deep layer of the atmosphere will keep the forecast dry through Monday night. With the warmer day today, do not expect temperatures to fall as low tonight as they did last night. By tomorrow, winds will turn out of the southwest and 850mb temperatures will increase by 1-2C, so will keep highs in the low- mid 90s.
1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 (Rest of tonight) High pressure will remain in place through the overnight hours, keeping dry and cooler conditions in place for one more night.
307 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 High pressure ridging over the area will continue to bring dry and quiet weather to ENC early this week. Unsettled weather may return to the area mid to late week as troughing persists over the Southeast. Upper level ridging pattern begins to break down mid to late week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.
Low temperatures Monday morning will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, with minimum readings expected in the mid-50s to around 60. The mid- and upper-level ridge which is currently positioned just west of the Mississippi Valley will also move eastward and build tomorrow, setting the stage for the mid-week heat wave across the region. Strong 596 dm mid-level ridge will be centered over Memphis on Tuesday with 850 mb temps near 22 C.