Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 438 AM WED MAY 11 2016/ Surface analysis this morning places a warm front over Missouri with southerly return flow present across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 4 am CDT, mainly rain free conditions are occurring across the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 70s at most locations. Short term models indicate a cold front will begin to approach the Lower Mississippi Valley later tonight and push through the Mid- South on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the area Thursday night from northwest to southeast as high pressure filters into the Mid-South.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO AROUND 50.
608 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
Winds will be light out of mostly the south to southwest today before a cold front moves into the area around 12z Thursday. Mid level thermal ridging will again lead to highs about 10 degrees above normal today. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will move across the Plains today sending a strong cold front south.
530 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1238 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will continue ridging from off the Southeast Coast westward along the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The ridging has limited moisture in the forecast area. Moisture will increase in the area ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
1218 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (SPC DAY 2 HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL RISK) AS LATE DAY TIMING OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY/MLCAPES TO REACH 1000 J/KG BASED ON SURFACE DEW PTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER NWRN ND WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA.
An upper trough over British Columbia will bring a chance of showers near the border today with mostly sunny skies over the rest of Western Washington.
THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS NOSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. BOTH MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
Drier and warmer northwesterly flow aloft starting to come into our CWA.
740 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY.
Warm inland temperatures should peak Thursday as High pressure builds over the area.
745 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
920 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE CWA WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT.
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a weak short wave trough moving through SE Texas with a few showers. Temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s due to the cloud cover and shower activity.
High pressure aloft will build across the region through the remainder of the week. The upper low currently lifting northeast across the Dakota states this morning has a trailing trough axis draped across Wyoming and Utah with high pressure ridging building in across the West coast.
828 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure and dry air will build into the region through Thursday before sliding offshore Thursday night.
The forecast remains on track with an upper ridge over the area today and Thursday. The surface thermal trough is forecast to move inland today.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A JET STREAK MOVING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF WRN INTO NRN MN TODAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER AIR MOVE IN AS WINDS ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
Issued at 235 am PDT High pressure will build over the west coast and remain in place through the end of the week allowing for temperatures to climb to well above normal readings. An area of low pressure is forecast to move into northern California over the weekend bringing slight cooling and locally breezy conditions.
The axis of an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic is shifting to the east ahead of a trough moving off the Eastern Seaboard. and a weak mid level trough is laying across South Florida and is showing in the morning sounding. The Atlantic ridge will continue to move the east while weak high pressure takes control of the Keys area this afternoon and tonight. The high pressure will build through the mid layers locally and remain in place over the Florida Peninsula and Keys Thursday through the weekend. the high temperature in Key West was 90 degrees.
724 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
846 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
542 AM MDT WED MAY 11 2016 UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE CWA WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT.
825 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MODESTLY WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
That's where a weak cold front will begin to move into West Central Texas later this afternoon.
815 AM MST WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will build into the region for a significant warming trend beginning today and continuing through the end of the work week.
936 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 A ridge of high pressure will reamin over the north country today through late thursday, resulting in plenty of sun and warm temperatures.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST.
Weak cold front extends from far northwestern Osage county into southwest Ok late this morning.
another round of elevated winds are on tap for today as low pressure over the srn plains tightens the gradient. /issued 448 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/ LIGHT WINDS CONTINUED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND THE DAKOTAS.
1209 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Late morning surface analysis depicts Atlantic surface ridging extending across north central Florida. Otherwise, a seasonably warm afternoon is unfolding, with inland highs approaching 90 and coastal highs holding in the lower 80s as the sea breeze has already developed and is pushing inland. Atlantic ridging will extend across our coastal waters, allowing for sea breeze development in the near shore waters, with easterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon.
525 AM MST WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will build into the region for a significant warming trend beginning today and continuing through the end of the work week.
610 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING IN WESTERN MN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW & SFRC LOW MOVING INTO NW ND AND HEADED TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY LATE TODAY. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF WRN INTO NRN MN TODAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER AIR MOVE IN AS WINDS ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
819 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
926 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure and dry air will build into the region through Thursday before sliding offshore Thursday night.
929 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure and dry air will build into the region through Thursday before sliding offshore Thursday night.
858 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure and dry air will build into the region through Thursday before sliding offshore Thursday night.
VFR conditions should prevail through much of the day, with winds increasing from the S to SW ahead of an approaching cold front by late morning. /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/ Cold front currently moving through the Texas panhandle into far northwest Oklahoma early this morning.
1035 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and a piedmont trough through Thursday.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE.
634 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Moist, unstable airmass coupled with warm front lifting north into the forecast area is setting the stage for convective initiation stretching from around Cedar County, MO west-northwestward into north-central KS. Dewpoints are already into the lower 60s this morning for many locations, and upper 60s are knocking on the doorstep in southwestern KS, along with SBCAPE of 1000+ J/kg analyzed there as well. Better dynamics continues to look to linger back behind the cold front coming through with a narrow corridor of better shear immediately ahead of the frontal boundary.
Still expect isolated showers and a few thunderstorms to develop today as the high-res models are still developing precipitation just inland from the coast by late morning and moving it northward throughout the day. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES.
Overall, no significant changes were required in a high confidence forecast scenario as the stacked low pressure system across northwest North Dakota this morning propagates into southern Manitoba late this afternoon. Strong winds are expected across much of western and central North Dakota today with gusts of 25 to 35 kts possible with a deep low pressure system across northern North Dakota.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WSR-88D SHOWING COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED OUT OR JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ENDING BY THAT TIME.
Weakening short wave trough continues to press east into the Southern Appalachian region generating scattered showers and thunderstorms.
with a 500mb wave pivoting around the southern extent of the upper low. A third wave rotates around the upper low for Thursday night.
A warm front is draped from the Bootheel area of Missouri eastward through northern Middle Tennessee. The warm front is forecast to lift north this morning placing Middle Tennessee well within the warm sector with primarily scattered convection as we go through the day with little in the way of a focus or trigger other than solar heating.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
Overnight, we are expecting lift to increase through the Panhandle as an upper trough passes late. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK A BIT NORTH BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED STORM CHANCES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STAY IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING.
High pressure will bring mostly clear skies, warm days, and seasonably cool nights to the area through Thursday.
1242 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will provide the area with dry weather through Thursday along with daytime temperatures running slightly above normal.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE COLD FRONT HAS SURGED EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AS IT WAS AIDED BY AN UNDULAR BORE THAT SURGED OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. DUE TO THE ACCELERATION OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THINKING THE UNDULAR BORE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS MIXING INCREASES AND MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN PROPAGATION OF THE COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN.
522 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
With the ridge building today into tonight we should continue to see the marine lyr shrinking and the air mass warming. ***From previous discussion*** The ridge peaks and the onshore flow relaxes on Thursday. The strong inversion will ensure a good stratus deck but the upper high will smoosh it down and without good onshore flow the clouds will not make it into the vlys. The weak onshore flow will allow for good clearing everywhere but the beaches where the strong inversion will keep the low clouds around a little longer. The ridge pushes off in response to the approach of a weak trof. There will be a little more onshore flow and this along with lowering hgts will allow the stratus back into the lower vlys.
651 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INTERIM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WAS PRODUCING SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION/SPORADIC SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLANS. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.
A COLD FRONT WILL START APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME SVR WX REMAINING NW OF THE CWA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THU COMPARED TO THIS WED AS A RESULT OF INCREASED RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND CLOUD COVER.
1004 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will continue ridging into the forecast area through Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
639 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSED LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. COOLER AIR THAN ADVERTISED WITH THE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure and dry air will build into the region through Thursday before sliding offshore Thursday night.
811 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 The combination of weakening Atlc ridge and a upr disturbance moving across the Gulf of Mexico has increased mid/higher cloud cover. The ltst HRRR guid indicates some potential for showers late this afternoon over the mid Florida ridge ascd with an E/W cst breeze merger.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 64 86 65 / 50 20 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 64 85 63 / 80 40 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 80 64 85 63 / 80 40 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 60 83 62 / 60 40 30 70.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HELP KEEP OVERALL CONDITIONS DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL STILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES.
THIS HAS PUSHED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DOWN INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES.
425 AM MST Tue May 11 2016 High pressure will build into the region for a significant warming trend beginning today and continuing through the end of the work week.
/issued / Surface analysis this morning places a warm front over Missouri with southerly return flow present across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 4 am CDT, mainly rain free conditions are occurring across the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 70s at most locations. Short term models indicate a cold front will begin to approach the Lower Mississippi Valley later tonight and push through the Mid- South on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the area Thursday night from northwest to southeast as high pressure filters into the Mid-South.
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 The latest regional surface analysis shows high pressure in control from the sandhills of the Carolinas through central and south Georgia. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS NOSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. BOTH MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH A 500MB WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW. A THIRD WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
757 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
929 AM PDT WED MAY 11 2016 Dry and warmer weather through Thursday, with night/morning low clouds along the coast.
1142 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
713 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Things are evolving fairly rapidly as of mid afternoon as strong deep layer forcing from the upper trof in the Dakotas continues to overspread much of MN. This upper trough will dig into the Northwestern U.
Upper level ridge that has been in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles for the past several days has shifted slightly to the south and east throughout the day today. Friday the ridge breaks down further to allow a cold front to enter the Panhandles.
951 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Low pressure will move east of the region tonight. High pressure will build in Friday.
1255 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland.
A cold front will bring thunderstorms on Friday and cooler air for the weekend. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will advect ewd atop this moist airmass by afternoon Friday, leading to moderate instability in much of Ohio as lift with the main upper low increases. Storms also may form along the system's associated cold front in Michigan, which would arrive overnight Friday night.
AR for one more afternoon at least with the higher humidity. The weekend still looks lower and we may escape an advisory for even more of our area by then as the chance for rain will be easing in on a weak backdoor cool front with GFS and Euro still 1017/18mb on a the high.
Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the lower to mid 70s southeast. Still looking for heat indices to approach advisory criteria over portions of the lower Susq River Valley on Friday.
At the surface, an associated cold front stretching from southwest Minnesota through central Nebraska as of 19z will advance southeast into the lower Missouri Valley tonight into Friday morning.
A cold front will bring thunderstorms on Friday and cooler air for the weekend. Early evening update to adjust pops based on lake breeze line of thunderstorms that has road into the low level instability and continues to produce a pulse line of gusty thunderstorms with heavy downpours. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will advect ewd atop this moist airmass by afternoon Friday, leading to moderate instability in much of Ohio as lift with the main upper low increases. Storms also may form along the system's associated cold front in Michigan, which would arrive overnight Friday night.
With subsidence from the ridge still affecting the area, am expecting temps for Friday to continue to be above seasonal (low to mid 90s, generally). Inland, with the soupy airmass easing a bit, temps closer, but still above seasonal expected (mid 70s inland to around 80 along the immediate coast) As the drier airmass continues to filter north over the northern Gulf coast from over the Gulf, the moisture part of the instability equation continues to be on the low side and with the loss off instability to counteract the subsidence of the upper ridge, the chance of pops remains low.
Mostly clear skies generally are expected tonight as high pressure builds over the region. Lows still look to range from the lower to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast and beaches.
No rain expected overnight with lows once again in the low/mid 70s.
Upper low remains over north central ND. The strongest feature is the upper low over north central ND, moving slowly east. High pressure will bring diminishing wind to the region.
GFS and Euro indicating the low-level monsoon activity that we've seen the past two days should be waning further on Friday with just some lingering slight chances for far southeastern Arizona.
otherwise the ridge aloft is keeping any storm development in check.
A cold front will enter the TX Panhandle on Friday. H5 Heights will fall through the weekend as a trough digs into the WRN US and moves across the Rockies. SRLY flow will increase in response to the trough over the weekend.
940 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 A potent upper trough will swing across the region tonight before pushing off the Carolina coast Friday morning.
The subtropical ridge will remain dominant in the mid and upper levels, while high pressure to our east and a lee-side trough to our northwest continues in the low-levels.
/Tonight/ A cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the forecast area tonight. In addition, as the low-level jet develops over southeast NE/southwest IA this evening it may trigger additional storms in that area with a separate attendant severe weather threat, and have maintained scattered thunderstorms in the forecast across the south.
Have expanded the low POPs farther southeast given the HRRR and to some extend RAP signal of precipitation. With slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday, the heat headlines will be allowed to expire early this evening. Meanwhile, a rather strong trough is moving east across the Northern Plains. Although temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler Friday, strong winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with storms that form. Other storms are expected over the High Plains late Friday afternoon and evening.