Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
dragging a trough into the western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface - high pressure slips off the eastern seaboard tonight then moves east while stretching back across the state to the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front accompanying the upper trough enters the Gulf Thu. However the approaching upper level trough and surface front will support increasing rain chances and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms pushing into the Nature coast Thu night and spreading southward Fri. High pressure departs as a cold front approaches with veering and increasing winds.
Scattered MVFR showers will continue across the region tonight and continue mainly in the higher terrain Thursday.
High pressure aloft will expand east across the Great Basin through the weekend.
Initial precipitation will be limited to western mountain ranges tonight, and with snow levels starting out higher, snowfall will be limited to the highest elevations tonight.
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Warmer than normal temperatures combined with weak disturbances passing through the region will bring chances for precipitation tonight. Despite potential for occasional lightning, virga, and sprinkles, lift aloft has not likely to be strong enough to overcome dew points in the lower to mid 30s. Overnight, a dry atmospheric profile under weak high pressure will bring mainly clear skies with temperatures dropping into the 40s and light winds. Expect another warm day on Thursday, albeit cooler than Wednesday, with daytime highs expected to reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.
656 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Upper trof/low will continue to move eastward this evening from south central into southeast Kansas.
The main focus will shift from abnormally dry air to marine winds tonight, triggered by deepening low pressure across the Mississippi Valley. Winds will gradually veer southeasterly as accompanying high pressure translates off the southeast US coast to near Bermuda by morning.
735 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Aviation - Rain moving in tonight and even a few thunderstorms possible - Small area of freezing rain possible near Harrison tonight - Below normal but moderating temperatures over the weekend - Rain moving in tonight and even a few thunderstorms possible The right entrance region of an upper jet will be over the CWA tonight. - Small area of freezing rain possible near Harrison tonight Forecast soundings from many of the models show a shallow cold layer underneath the elevated warm layer tonight into Thursday morning. Forecast temperature values around Harrison and into Evart suggests a risk for freezing rain. Model qpf in the region is low and the window for freezing rain is narrow. This could lead to few icy spots on bridges and overpasses.
543 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over Central Kansas will track eastward to the Missouri border this evening into tonight. In the wake of the upper low, NW flow aloft will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Expect a clearing trend this evening into tonight -- in assoc/w subsidence in the wake of an upper level low progressing eastward from Central to Eastern Kansas. The main feature will be high pressure over the CWA.
/issued 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020/ Current radar imagery show light elevated showers moving into the area this afternoon as a warm front pushes northward from the Gulf. Short range models show thunderstorms moving into the area from the west later tonight in the form of a line as a trough currently over Oklahoma moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the low level jet strengthens areas could see increasing wind gusts, thus a wind advisory has been issued for areas near the Delta. The line of showers will finally move out of the area by tomorrow morning, but lingering showers with the passage of the aforementioned trough will affect the area by Thursday afternoon.
light rain showers wrapping around the upper low will be possible into the overnight hours as IFR/MVFR ceilings become common over the CWA. There may be period of VFR conditions across Eastern Oklahoma before the backside of the low moves into the region this evening.
Temperatures for the Valley range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. The foothills and mountains are a touch cooler as their highs vary from the 60s to the 70s. All in all, temps may rise a few more degrees this afternoon, with warmer weather expected the following days due to the axis of the ridge moving over NorCal. The pressure gradient will tighten over NorCal tomorrow as the ridge builds.
Modest instability should allow for a few weak thunderstorms as well Thursday afternoon with perhaps some small hail with lower freezing levels.
Some mid-level clouds will persist into the overnight hours with lows staying in the lower 40s across the plains. Some areas over the higher terrain could gust up to 60 mph during this period. The lower elevations will be under a downslope but with increasing lapse rates scattered showers will be possible by the afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. Highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler than today with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on the plains and 30s and 40s in the mountains.
Erratic localized gusty winds have been the primary threats with both LHX and PUB reporting wind gusts over 50 mph this afternoon from some of the high based weaker cells.
845 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Deep lyr anticyclone extending from the FL peninsula to the NW Carib will maintain a stable WX pattern acrs central FL overnight. Sfc/low lvl winds will veer from E/NE to SE overnight as the anticyclone builds offshore, but with RAP40 analyzing PWats btwn 0. Sfc/low lvl pgrad will tighten overnight as a dvlpg storm system near the ArkLaTex lifts into the mid MS valley, shunting a deep high pressure ridge from the FL Peninsula into the W Atlc.
A low pressure system will move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning.
This was in response to the upper low currently moving into Northeast Oklahoma and a surface boundary pushing eastward across far Eastern Oklahoma. Some light rain showers were wrapping around the upper low from Southern Kansas back into Central Oklahoma.
A cold front will move through late in the night or early in the morning improving conditions back to VFR. The weak cold front will not actually affect temperatures, as we will continue with high temperatures win the mid 80s to upper 90s. An upper level trough is expected to approach the area Thursday night.
30 Current radar imagery show light elevated showers moving into the area this afternoon as a warm front pushes northward from the Gulf. Short range models show thunderstorms moving into the area from the west later tonight in the form of a line as a trough currently over Oklahoma moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the low level jet strengthens areas could see increasing wind gusts, thus a wind advisory has been issued for areas near the Delta. The line of showers will finally move out of the area by tomorrow morning, but lingering showers with the passage of the aforementioned trough will affect the area by Thursday afternoon.
As of 20Z Wednesday afternoon, an impressive mid-latitude cyclone was progressing across the Central and Southern Plains.
724 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Low pressure over the southern plains will lift out northeast into the Ohio valley on Thursday, spreading renewed rain across the area Thursday morning.
For the overnight hours, expect frequent snow showers in the mountains and rain showers spreading eastward to the lower elevations of southern MT and north central WY. Additional rain showers in the lower elevations and snow showers in the mountains are on the way Thursday, with a few weak thunderstorms also possible. Modest instability should allow for a few weak thunderstorms as well Thursday afternoon with perhaps some small hail with lower freezing levels.
As we go through the overnight hours and the warm front starts to make its way through the area (currently well back to our southwest), some rumbles of thunder will be possible.
Scattered showers will still be possible as upper low passes over northern and central Oklahoma this evening. (This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms continue to evolve through the afternoon hours as the upper low makes its final dig across our area, as well as a surface boundary/dryline making its eastward push. Expecting last round of supercells to begin developing in this highly unstable and sheared environment, with very large hail possible.
851 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 There may be a few sprinkles along the northern border and flurries over the mountain ridges, but that's about it and the remaining convection will continue to fade over the next couple of hours. Some mid-level clouds will persist into the overnight hours with lows staying in the lower 40s across the plains. Some areas over the higher terrain could gust up to 60 mph during this period. The lower elevations will be under a downslope but with increasing lapse rates scattered showers will be possible by the afternoon and will continue into the evening hours. Highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler than today with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on the plains and 30s and 40s in the mountains.
639 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms continue to evolve through the afternoon hours as the upper low makes its final dig across our area, as well as a surface boundary/dryline making its eastward push. Expecting last round of supercells to begin developing in this highly unstable and sheared environment, with very large hail possible.
Forecast confidence is medium to high: Low pressure will pass by well to the south today, with a frontal boundary remaining stalled just to the south of the WI/IL border. Stuck toward the majority of solutions and kept it cooler and more stable.
A series of short wave troughs will be moving in from the Pacific Northwest, helping to reinforce troughiness across the eastern half of the CONUS.
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A weak warm front will pass through the area tonight. A low pressure area will approach from the west on Thursday bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move through Thursday night with weak high pressure moving in Friday.
1212 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Thunderstorms continue to evolve through the afternoon hours as the upper low makes its final dig across our area, as well as a surface boundary/dryline making its eastward push. Expecting last round of supercells to begin developing in this highly unstable and sheared environment, with very large hail possible.
Winds will be light out of the west through most of the day, but will switch to the north towards the end of this cycle as a cold front enters the area. Water vapor imagery currently shows moisture flowing in from the north/northwest on the back side of the upper low. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow as most places reach the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s. Guerrero A mid to upper level low pressure system currently sits over the northeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as of this writing. This low will continue to propagate east out of the area. Northwest flow aloft becomes the dominate synoptic set up over the coming week as the low exits.
An upper level trough is moving into West Texas while at the surface a dryline and cold front are moving across our CWA. Ahead of the dryline/front the winds are from the south to southwest and dewpoints are in the lower to middle 70s. Low temperatures Thursday will be cooler, but highs will rebound quickly in the dry air. Lows Friday will be a couple of degrees cooler with clear skies and light winds.
408 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A stacked low pressure system is expected to be near the Missouri/Arkansas border by 12z this morning. Rain showers are driven today by isentropic lift over the warm front that runs west to east across central Kentucky. During the late afternoon and evening, the cold front extending south of the center of the system will pass west to east through central Kentucky. A broad upper level trof over the eastern U.
425 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Low pressure over the southern plains lifts out northeast into the Ohio valley on Thursday, spreading rain across the area Thursday morning. Friday will be dry and warmer followed by wet and cool weather again this weekend. Otherwise, a vigorous upper lower was over far southwest Missouri early this morning.
A warm ridge will drift east off the Pacific over California this weekend, bringing the warmest weather of the season inland.
1127 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over Central Kansas will track eastward to the Missouri border this evening into tonight. In the wake of the upper low, NW flow aloft will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Expect a clearing trend this evening into tonight -- in assoc/w subsidence in the wake of an upper level low progressing eastward from Central to Eastern Kansas. The main feature will be high pressure over the CWA.
Then, a weak system will move through to our north, bringing increasing cloud coverage, and the chance for scattered showers along the higher terrain.
Erratic localized gusty winds have been the primary threats with both LHX and PUB reporting wind gusts over 50 mph this afternoon from some of the high based weaker cells. An additional 3 inches is expected over the higher elevations. The trough and the cold front will bring a colder air mass over the region, especially the plains on Friday afternoon.
Additional development is expected in the afternoon tomorrow ahead of the cold front, and this will be the time when we could see some strong to severe storms. Still, this afternoon convection should still be elevated as the warm front remains to our south, so the threats with any storms will be hail or straight-line winds. Widespread precipitation is moving in from the southwest ahead of an approaching warm front. The low-levels still remain relatively dry with VFR ceilings. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 55 75 55 71 / 70 60 10 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 56 71 53 70 / 70 60 10 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 71 55 71 53 69 / 80 70 10 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 54 67 48 68 / 90 60 30 10 70 TN.
332 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 An upper trough is over Missouri with northwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Surface winds will mostly be out of the west today across the area with a broad upper trough overhead. Winds will begin to shift to the northwest on Friday in advance of a cold front and temperatures will be slightly higher than today.
210 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A weak warm front will pass through the area tonight. A low pressure area will approach from the west on Thursday bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move through Thursday night with weak high pressure moving in Friday.
342 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A low pressure system will continue to affect the Mid-South today. The low will track across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee during the day today. The high will only stay over the area through Friday morning before the next system begins to approach the Mid-South. Another low pressure system will begin to move into Northeast Arkansas Friday afternoon. Some storms may become severe ahead of the front as the upper level trof transitions from positively tilted to negatively tilted.
329 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A low pressure system will advance into the region from the south this afternoon; rain showers will prevail through Friday morning. Strong low-level SW flow has advanced the frontal boundary into the Oil City region; a wintry mix is likely continuing in Forest County with temperatures a few degrees below freezing. A brief break in the weather is expected mid-morning before a low pressure system advances into the Ohio Valley. A second wave of steady to heavy rain showers will return before first light on Friday as the center of the low passes through the WV ridges.
Currently the warm front boundary is located north of New Castle, PA and extends south into Indiana County; bright banding is a clear indication of that snow is melting aloft. Over the next few hours strong SW flow will push the warm front into southern New York and end precip chances. A low pressure system will move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning.
Instability decreases with northeast extent therefore the highest chance for an isolated strong storm with hail would be south of a Joplin to West Plains line. This is all attributed to a compact upper level low moving through southern KS and northern OK. Therefore it now looks likely that the low track will go just south of the area in northern AR. Storm total rainfall from this event (including whats already fallen will be between 1-2 inches with the highest amounts in far southwest Missouri. Gusty winds of 30-35mph will continue ahead of the low this evening and then behind the low by Thursday morning. An upper level trough will move in during the day Friday with rain developing and remaining during most of Friday.
This was in response to the upper low currently moving into Northeast Oklahoma and a surface boundary pushing eastward across far Eastern Oklahoma. Some light rain showers were wrapping around the upper low from Southern Kansas back into Central Oklahoma. the upper low will continue its easterly movement through the CWA into Southern Missouri Friday morning. As the backside of the low moves through. light rain showers wrapping around the low will remain possible across mainly Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Additional cloud cover also wrapping around the low combined with dewpoints holding in the 50s should help to keep temps from falling all that much overnight.
Weak cold air advection in the low-levels will keep highs a bit cooler than today, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s across northwest Nebraska to lower 70s elsewhere. A reinforcing cold front will cool highs back to the lower and mid 60s. Rain chances look to fade beyond Friday as ridging aloft begins to build across the western CONUS. Our area will remain on the downstream side of the ridge with general northwest flow aloft continuing.
1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Upper trof/low will continue to move eastward this evening from south central into southeast Kansas.
Lingering moisture behind yesterday's disturbance has left some patchy fog and low ceilings across the area overnight, but a weak cold front pushing southward will clear these conditions up through the mid morning. A return to southerly flow tomorrow will lead to temperatures climbing into the upper 80s across the area, with the possibility of getting into the low 90s possibly east of I- 45. Another cold front is expected to move through the area Friday evening and overnight Friday coming from the NW.
329 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Precipitation associated with the exiting upper trough has recently moved east out of the local area with cloud cover steadily diminishing. Expect lingering low cloud and fog to dissipate this morning though low-level wind fields continue to be modest between weak ridging to the east and developing low pressure to the west associated with the next wave. A weak mid- level trough moves in late in the day into this evening as a stronger wave digs into the central Plains overnight into Friday. Resultant isentropic upglide around 800 mb may give rise to isolated to scattered convection late today into tonight with an uptick in coverage expected Friday as the trough deepens.
Cumulus field across northeast New Mexico and elevated showers across the TX/OK Panhandles suggests that isolated storms could remain in the forecast but trajectory of the trough/low suggests the area of favorable conditions will shift east through the afternoon into tonight and take the best chances east of the area. West wind providing a downslope component combined with sunny skies should help to boost highs on the Caprock above blend and guidance values into the low to mid 80s. Jordan Broad upper level ridging will persist over the western CONUS with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS for the rest of this week. After the dry and warm conditions on Thursday, a cold front will follow Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday will see cooler temperatures from this cold front knocking temperatures back down to near seasonal averages.
The warm front is currently over southern AL and is moving slowly northward. This will also be determined by just how far north the warm front moves today. 01 Models tend to agree that this weekend will include a slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as a weak trough moves through the Ohio river valley but widespread storms are not expected given the weak moisture return and some dry air entrainment.
153 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over Central Kansas will track eastward to the Missouri border this evening into tonight. In the wake of the upper low, NW flow aloft will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Expect a clearing trend this evening into tonight -- in assoc/w subsidence in the wake of an upper level low progressing eastward from Central to Eastern Kansas. The High Plains will be on the eastern side of upper-level ridging throughout the period, placing the region under northwest flow.
1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Warmer than normal temperatures combined with weak disturbances passing through the region will bring chances for precipitation tonight. Despite potential for occasional lightning, virga, and sprinkles, lift aloft has not likely to be strong enough to overcome dew points in the lower to mid 30s. Overnight, a dry atmospheric profile under weak high pressure will bring mainly clear skies with temperatures dropping into the 40s and light winds.
201 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Aviation - Rain moving in tonight and even a few thunderstorms possible - Small area of freezing rain possible near Harrison tonight - Below normal but moderating temperatures over the weekend - Rain moving in tonight and even a few thunderstorms possible The right entrance region of an upper jet will be over the CWA tonight. - Small area of freezing rain possible near Harrison tonight Forecast soundings from many of the models show a shallow cold layer underneath the elevated warm layer tonight into Thursday morning. Forecast temperature values around Harrison and into Evart suggests a risk for freezing rain. Model qpf in the region is low and the window for freezing rain is narrow. This could lead to few icy spots on bridges and overpasses.
527 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 A low pressure system will advance into the region from the south this afternoon; rain showers will prevail through Friday morning. There will be a break in the weather this morning before a low pressure system advances into the Ohio Valley. A second wave of steady to heavy rain showers will return before first light on Friday as the center of the low passes through the WV ridges.
1152 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 A dry cold front will push south out of south-central Missouri early this evening. If the high clouds stick around, these temperatures may be 2-4 degrees too cool. Highs on Thursday will then be about 10 degrees cooler than what we saw today. Current temperatures profiles for the Ozarks after midnight Thursday through sunrise Friday would indicate the potential for rain and freezing rain to occur. This may allow for a period of freezing rain to occur with a glaze to minor accumulations less than a tenth of an inch. The coincidence of precipitation and cold air should keep the area of best potential of freezing rain along and east of the highway 65 corridor. The atmosphere will begin to reset as temperatures climb above freezing through the day Friday and stay warm though the weekend.
1133 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will continue to push off the east coast through tonight. High pressure will spread across the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday.