Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AT THE VALLEY FLOORS AT MOST LOCATIONS AND RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET AS AS PRECIPITATION MIXES DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT. 700MB WINDS /AROUND 10000FT MSL/ REACH 60-75KT AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE RIDGETOPS /ESPECIALLY THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OWYHEE MOUNTAINS/ AND IN THE WELL MIXED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE HEALTHY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER WEST FACING TERRAIN.
MODELS BRING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE NORTH BAY STARTING AROUND NOON, AROUND SF BAY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (LIKELY CAUSING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ISSUES), AND TO MONTEREY BAY BY THE EVENING.
Skies will become mostly sunny as low clouds push east with the low level moisture. High clouds will also push east by late morning as an upper trough over Oklahoma moves east. Lows in the mid 30s are expected in the low lying areas, particularly south of I-20, where the pressure gradient/winds will be weakest/lightest.
PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT NARROW WINDOW OF 15-25 MPH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AS ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING/MIXING ENSUES IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THIS SWATH OF WINDS ALOFT.
KCDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE HIGHER WIND PUNCH. PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT NARROW WINDOW OF 15-25 MPH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AS ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING/MIXING ENSUES IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THIS SWATH OF WINDS ALOFT.
SOME FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN ND ANGLING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES IN MN.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
546 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF A COOL START AND CLOUDINESS. THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE.
AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING AND RIMING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT MILD AIR AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM MOBRIDGE TO GRAND FORKS LATE TUESDAY.
A significant low pressure system will begin to approach central Idaho and western Montana starting this afternoon. Strong gusty winds are also expected in the higher terrain Monday evening and night with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.
955 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
554 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE CHARACTERISTIC SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIE BEFORE CROSSING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WHILE THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY GIVE THE HIGH SIERRA A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THIS HIGHER SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF A MUCH STRONG JET MAX DRIVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER ON MONDAY.
1039 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF A COOL START AND CLOUDINESS. THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE.
915 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 KTBW 12 SOUNDING IS SHOWING A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THE LOWEST 750 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SINCE 24 HOURS AGO AS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE TURNED TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NATURE COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS AS THE NEXT TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.
930 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THE HIGH RICK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFT.
414 AM CST MON DEC 21 2015 The high wind warning has expired in the GDP Mtns. Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof in wrn NM and consensus of model data is that shrtwv trof will pass to the north of CWFA today. This will result in cooler 85h temps, but still warm enuf for above normal temps and with 85h winds of 15-25kts it will briefly be breezy after 18Z. Still warm on Thur with backdoor front lurking to the ne and could result in cooler temps there Thur. Still looks to be an unseasonably warm Christmas as surface pressure falls occur ahead of an upper low moving into the desert SW.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE AN E/SE WIND FLOW WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT REMAINING 15- 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS DUE SUGGEST SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE DELTA ON TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT AS LOW AS I'D LIKE TO SEE FOR A SNOW-ONLY SITUATION. LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND THINKING THIS SHOULD OVERCOME MOST SHALLOW LAYERS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
THE LOCAL EARLY MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS HAS FALLEN A SMALL BIT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS.
305 AM PDT THU MAR 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENCAL AND SOCAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM THE PACNW NORTH TO ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE TOWARDS THE SONORAN DESERT.
THERE IS A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WHICH HAS SET UP SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE IS SPILLING SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON.
412 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 LATEST ROUND OF STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. FOR THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THAT SLOW MARCH TOWARDS THE GULF TODAY. INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST GULF REGION.
330 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 (Today and Tonight) As of 3 AM, the main cold front was moving through the Big Country area, with a pre-frontal wind shift to the northwest having moved southeast to a Junction/Mason line. Temperatures were mainly in the 60s ahead of the main cold front, and in the lower to mid 50s behind it, generally north of I-20. The cold front will continue to make its way south tonight into tomorrow, keeping winds out of the north/northwest today.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE EAST SIDE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT, WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN CLEAR AND COOL. THE RIDGE ALOFT PROVIDING THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ON FRIDAY, SO WE'RE EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY'S READINGS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE, IT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WON'T HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
416 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IF TEMPERATURES DO DROP BELOW FREEZING THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN THERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LINGERED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH NW WI. LATE TONIGHT SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY LIFTS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MID LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE UPPER TROF DRIFTS INTO NW WI. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSONS BAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS ALBERTA/N SASKATCHEWAN. WENT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.
OTHERWISE, MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TO REFLECT THE WARMER AIR AND SLOWER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.
THIS WILL KEEP MILD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX. THE LACK OF A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT FOR NOW. BECOMING NORTH AFTER 01/00Z BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
/issued 228 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/ Breezy west winds will continue to increase this afternoon as strong upper winds (60-65kt 500mb jet), associated with an elongated upper trough to the west, mix down to the surface through peak heating today. The main upper trough to the west will begin to shift east on Thursday while a weak front moves through. Slightly cooler temps can be expected as a result. A stronger cold front arrives Friday morning bringing gusty northeast winds and much cooler air to the region. Temperatures will decrease throughout the day and late afternoon temperatures will generally be in the low 50s across much of the CWA. This front will team up with the approaching weak upper trough to potentially generate a few light showers across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos through the day Friday.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH ENOUGH SFC HEATING WITH HIGHS 45-50 SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW/GRAUPLE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT COMING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT 12Z AND MOVING THROUGH LIT AT 17Z. THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH AR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AND EVEN A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE HELD AFTER FRONT UNTIL THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION.
CLEARING WEST TO EAST MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
405 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A cold front will continue to move across the area early this morning. Weak, dry cold fronts will move across the area every 2-3 days bringing little more than a wind shift and a few degrees of cooling behind each front.
312 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IN A NORTHERLY FLOW.
313 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, FURTHER COOLING THE AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WE ARE SEEING SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY SAGGING BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY INLAND, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
124 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
101 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO DRAW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH. THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. WINDS TOMORROW WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A 500-MB TROF DROPS INTO SONORA STATE IN MEXICO. AGAIN EXPECTING PATCHY OR EVEN AREAS OF FOG AS DEWPOINTS STAY UP IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DROP INTO LOW END IFR AND LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN SATURATED. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ROUGHLY 10Z AT KDRT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST.
525 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SPANNING THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH. WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. AS WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME ADIABATIC WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOO.
/ISSUED 229 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ MULTI LOBED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A CIRCULATION NOTED ON WV IMAGERY UP AROUND FSD. TRAILING TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTERLY TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN SRN CALIFORNIA. NOW OVER SONORA BECOMING A CONTIGUOUS TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY ALONG AN ARC TO THE GREAT LAKES THENCE INTO THE SUN COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS THEN OUT INTO THE PACIFIC ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. AND ALSO ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS HENCE HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW NORM /50S AND 60S/. 40 INCHES/ ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HANG ON /PWATS OF AOA 0.
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI AT THAT TIME.
322 AM MST THU MAR 31 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
429 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 CURRENTLY - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. ACTIVITY REMAINS WEAK DUE STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT. FORECAST - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHORT LIVED AND FAIRLY WEAK. AND A TRAILING TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
343 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Upper pattern has a trough this morning extending from the Upper Midwest back to AZ. This trough will swing east bringing a chance of rain to the region. After it passes an upper ridge will build in as the weather warms. However a strong cold front will blow into the area Friday. believe that is overdone so will stay closer to warmer MAV guidance in the 50s.
ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE CROSSING NRN LWR MI. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CAUSING A NORTH WIND TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night.
CONTINUED WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE COMES IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND NORTH WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HEAD SOUTH TODAY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SOME MOISTURE IS TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST AS SREF SHOVES THIS OFF TO THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE DISLOCATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING BELOW FREEZING. WITH MODELS TRENDING WARMER. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT TO BRING CLEARING SKIES.
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway.
/ISSUED 844 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016/ A INVERTED TROUGH HAS SET UP ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
425 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016 Scattered showers are streaming from north to south across western Montana this morning, bringing snowfall for the higher elevations such as the Georgetown Lake area and the Continental Divide.
229 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MULTI LOBED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A CIRCULATION NOTED ON WV IMAGERY UP AROUND FSD. TRAILING TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTERLY TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN SRN CALIFORNIA. NOW OVER SONORA BECOMING A CONTIGUOUS TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY ALONG AN ARC TO THE GREAT LAKES THENCE INTO THE SUN COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS THEN OUT INTO THE PACIFIC ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. AND ALSO ADVECT IN A COOLER AIRMASS HENCE HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW NORM /50S AND 60S/. 40 INCHES/ ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HANG ON /PWATS OF AOA 0.
BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA INTO THE MORNING HRS. THE COLD COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS TROUGH BISECTS SOUTH TEXAS.
THEY MAY REMAIN QUITE THICK AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. WARMER THAN IF STAYED CLEAR AND COLDER IF STAYED CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO WRN ND SAT AFTN AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THEN NEXT SHORT WAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND MON MIDDAY-AFTN ALONG WITH NEXT COLD FRONT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY WITH TROUGH AXIS ROTATING INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AMPLITUDE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
910 PM PST FRI JAN 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING COOL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT AT MOST SITES WITH A DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET AGL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TOMORROW, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
300 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE EXPD WITH THE LOW LVL JET IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN MRNG PASSAGE. THOUGH LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LT SUN/SUN NGT COULD RESULT IN AN INCH OR TWO N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/ A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO DALLAS- FORT WORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING NEAR DALLAS. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM THIS DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WILL HELP ENHANCE HELICITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ROUGHLY AROUND 00Z. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S.