Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SECONDARY LOW PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
133 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
243 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 GORGEOUS EARLY SPRING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL START TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
/ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE WEST COAST TODAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY.
1232 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPS MAY BE HINDERED A BIT BY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY BUT THAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SWLY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. AS A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN SETS IN. THE FIRST IS THE CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING REGIME TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
303 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 The upper low that has been sitting over Mexico and creating massive flood issues along the southern states will finally begin to eject northward into Texas by Saturday. with the first lifting north through the CWA during the morning hours and the second round holding off until Saturday afternoon as the trough swings northeastward into Arkansas.
1055 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. DOWNSLOPING ONGOING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND IN THE LEE OF THE PINE RIDGE. PASSING THICK CIRRUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SAT EVENING. POS THETA-E ADV ASSOCIATE WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTERPART OF THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A SHRA OR TWO OVER FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WHERE LL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE DAKOTAS. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING TOWARD THE REGION WITH A SCATTERED LAYER OF CIRRUS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN MN. THE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING PREVAIL. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.
340 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LEVY COUNTY COAST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE OFF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE DAY TO THE MID 80S OVER INLAND AREAS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S-50S IN THE MTNS.
1244 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. BUT A WEAK LOW MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE THE FRONT BACK NORTHEAST.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGHS ON THE GUIDANCE BASED ON FULL SUNSHINE AND SOME DEEPER MIXING.
221 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 DRY WEATHER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION. AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH SATURDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE FOR A REPEAT OF THIS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LIFTS NORTH INTO TEXAS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FILLS AND GETS KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 20 GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE SOUTHERN TX UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND.
130 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH TODAY. AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
439 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TX. -VINCENT A HYBRID CAD WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE SAT MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH WARMER TEMPS EAST AND SOUTH WHERE THE WEDGE WILL ERODE EARLIER IN THE DAY.
1053 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 An upper low over southern Texas will continue to move slowly north with the chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two increasing from south to north this afternoon and evening.
1207 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.
313 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT UPPER LOW WAS MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
409 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) The closed upper low currently over extreme southern TX will lift northward into north TX by 12z Saturday in response to a strong upper trof moving into the West Coast. Continued veering of the low-mid level flow to a more decided southerly component tonight will allowed for continued northward moisture transport through the Mid MS Valley.
THIS CANADIAN IMPULSE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BEFORE WEAKENING.
AS OUR UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN METHODICALLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE H500 TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. /ISSUED 438 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCH TOWARD THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING, AS THE UPPER LOW DOES THE SAME. THE MID TO UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT AM. BY THIS TIME, THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NEWRD OVER SE OK AND THE RED RIVER.
Large upper low spinning over south Texas and streaming clouds and moisture northeast into the Ohio valley. As the low lifts northward, along with it comes increasing clouds and a chance for rain.
213 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE WARM FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Ridging aloft ahead of the slowly northward moving closed low from southern Texas. The ridge will suppress the development of convection through most of the WFO PAH forecast area, with the exception of the southern border counties of West Kentucky and Southeast Missouri. Once the moisture trajectory is once again established late tonight and channeled forcing occurs northeast of the closed low, precipitation should start drifting north-northwest through Southeast Missouri, then build east with time on Saturday. By late Friday night, the closed low over Texas phases in with an approaching trough axis in the Four Corners region of the desert Southwest U.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL SOUTH THROUGH JOHNSON COUNTY WITH GUSTY N-NE WIND. UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS US DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
443 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
142 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS.
313 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
322 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER UNTIL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION. AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH SATURDAY. IN VICINITY OF THE NWD DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
352 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 21Z HAS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FINALLY OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE LOW AND THE LIMITED CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND 50S NORTH.
335 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THAT'S IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD INTERACTING WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.
305 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS.
Texas closed low taking its time moving north, and its affects on SW KS will wait until late tonight and Saturday morning. Today, increasing high clouds are likely later in the day while the surface winds adjust from southwest to southeast through the day just ahead of a northward lifting upper low moving through Texas into Oklahoma. The northern periphery of this low will likely spread one or more narrow bands of rain showers across central Kansas and northwestward into western Kansas through the overnight hours.
UPPER RIDGING WAS CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE A CLOSED LOW AS MEANDERING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MINIMIZED THE DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO VA AND TN. HIGH PRESSURE THOUGH.
346 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THEN WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1053 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 High pressure is dominating the weather across central Illinois this morning, providing sunny skies and light winds. High clouds will remain fairly prevalent as a steady stream of cirrus clouds emanate from an upper low moving into Texas. Upper low drifting northward across the lower Rio Grande Valley into deep southern Texas early this morning, as a sharpening trough approaches the California coast.
PARTICULARLY WAYNE COUNTY MAY SEE A LIGHT STEADY RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING THE RAIN SLOWLY NOSES NORTHWARD.
1258 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
An upper low over the Arklatex will gradually lift northeastward during the short term, sending occasional pulses of energy northeastward. In addition, a surface warm front will approach the LMK CWA from the south tonight and cross the region Saturday morning. By Saturday night access to Gulf of Mexico moisture will increase and the main PV anomaly will be entering the lower Ohio Valley. Saturday night will be warmer with lows around 60.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WERE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES HAD NOT DROPPED AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS A CUT OFF LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA WEATHER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S COAST.
/ISSUED 959 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND MORNING TBW SOUNDING STILL SHOWING DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 0. BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80 WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL AREAS COOLER.
126 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAST MOVING FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
1037 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH RESIDED OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE AREA BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES CARRYING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE SOUTH COOLING ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO TODAY. BY SAT EVENING THE LITTLE CLOSED LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
403 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SECONDARY LOW PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
223 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
326 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
1034 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 DRY SLOTTING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. BUT EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER THE AREA COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRAND WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND ACROSS SE TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSLOPING ONGOING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND IN THE LEE OF THE PINE RIDGE. PASSING THICK CIRRUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SAT EVENING. POS THETA-E ADV ASSOCIATE WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTERPART OF THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A SHRA OR TWO OVER FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD WHERE LL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT.
Early Friday morning, a large upper level low was nearly stationary over far south Texas, but was perhaps beginning to make its move toward the north in advance of another wave moving on to the west coast and ridging in the southeast CONUS. Temperatures have held a bit warmer overnight, in the 40s for most locations, and will provide a warm start to the day with ample sunshine expected. The upper low will continue its shift to the north through the day and into tonight, with increased moisture making its way into the area by this evening.
BUT GFS APPEARS SUSPICIOUS WITH SURFACE/UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING OVER GREAT LAKES BY WED. OPTED TO ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS ARE MUCH WARMER THU-FRI.
234 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY REGIME AS UPPER CLOSED LOW AND MAIN GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTH LATE TODAY INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY AND SOME POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST FINALLY DAMPENS AND LIFTS NEWD TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MAIN LONGWAVE ENERGY.
219 PM MST FRI MAR 11 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE STRONG LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO HAS LED TO TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS (25-30KT) ACROSS OUR CWA. DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WINDS MAY REMAIN 10-15KT IN THE WEST AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS ALSO RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S).
727 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER PA TODAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT EARLY THIS WEEK. GIVING WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. TODAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY.
ALONG WITH SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING AS ORIGINALLY POSTED. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST GA. WITH SPOTTY NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ELSEWHERE. THE COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASED WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WINDS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WERE REPORTING WINDS GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WARMER OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK.
BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE IN STRENGTH AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSS BY 10 AM. /ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
1054 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE AREA.
851 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE HELPED 3 AM TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AT CONROE TO 50 ON GALVESTON ISLAND. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO NORTHERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. READINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY.
/issued 455 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Northwest flow aloft over the forecast area today will become nearly zonal tonight as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves over the northern Rockies tonight. As a lee-side trough develops over the Panhandle this afternoon, south winds will become gusty over the forecast area by by mid-morning, increasing to 15-25 by early afternoon. Morning lows tomorrow will return to near seasonal with lows in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Weak ridging aloft will transition to a more zonal flow by mid week as an upper level trough digs over the four corners area.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE HELPED 3 AM TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AT CONROE TO 50 ON GALVESTON ISLAND. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY.
801 AM MST MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TUESDAY. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF WARMTH AND RIDGING IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RESPONDING TO THE TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVEMENT.
ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES HAS SHIFTED EAST AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE WEST COAST.
RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY WITH WIND FIELDS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
1032 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND LINGERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
Quieter weather is in store for the PAH forecast area for the next 48 hours as broad mid level ridging commences across the central CONUS, and all lows/frontal systems stay well to the north.