Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
912 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP OVER 8K FT. AND THERE IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN ASSOCIATION WITH ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
640 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
1048 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
702 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
BUT THE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THE WWD EXPANSION OF THE 700 HPA LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF IS PINCHING AWAY AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LEADING TO WEAKER AND MORE SHORT-LIVED CELLS. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OVER THOSE FROM THIS MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. KEEPING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE.
UPPER RIDGING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
341 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 A DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
343 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TOUGH IN THE EAST. A SFC BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH LATEST REPORTS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
SO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE CARRIED PRIMARILY OVER THE RIDGES AND AROUND MORGANTOWN. WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW.
/ISSUED 1120 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/ LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER AIR/RIDGING IS HOLDING ON ACROSS SE TX SO FAR THIS MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. BUT A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH THE HIGHEST NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON METRO /CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL DISTURBANCE/.
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE. CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF THIS LOW. NAM TAKES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN. WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KY.
The southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe weather risks.
243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) An upper high will be centered over the Great Basin through tomorrow with the forecast area under a north to northwest flow aloft. Given the increase in cloud cover, overnight lows will be somewhat warmer than last night with lows generally in the lower 70s. Likewise, afternoon highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today with highs ranging from the upper 80s over the Interstate 10 corridor to around 90 and into the lower 90s over the remainder of the area. 15 (Friday night through Thursday) A cold front will be located in the vicinity of the Red River Friday evening, with showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO OUR CWA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MONSOONAL PATTERN. AFTERNOON STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE RIM NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA OVER THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BUT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING.
AND KEPT HIGHS WARMER THERE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. AND BROAD BUT WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
BUT REMAIN AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
151 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO MORE WSW OR SW.
THIS WOULD INDUCE N-S OPRIENTED LOWER-DECK TROFFING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER THAT'LL BECOME MORE ASSERTIVE. THE CANADIAN UPPER-DECK WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT E/NE AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER-DECK RIDGE THAT SHOULD SHARPLY AMPLIFY FROM NEW ENGLAND TO ALONG THE QUEBEC/NEWFOUNDLAND BORDER MON & MON NIGHT. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS MON & MON NIGHT.
1251 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLEASANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH THE SMOKE ALOFT SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN WI WILL BECOME ORIENTED W-E ACROSS SRN WI TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE TNT.
110 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THINK THE SHRA/TSRA THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWATS MAKE A RUN TO 2 INCHES. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THRU TOMORROW NIGHT DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND S/W TROF.
441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
SKIES SHOULD START OUT SUNNY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALONG TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST. A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM MID 80S SW PANHANDLE TO LOWER 90S SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH FORECAST PRECIP-WATER VALUES (AROUND 2 INCHES).
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN IS FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS EXPECT.
Same goes for the dewpoints, although it is still rather moist west and south of a line stretching from Maryville through Chillicothe and into Moberly as they range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
A COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO 500 MB. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL FAVOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS WITH GOING MAX TEMP FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS. NORTHERN VALLEY WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOW 100S BUT REST OF THE VALLEY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTH KEEPING DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VERY COMFORTABLE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 F WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
237 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER BACK OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WITH COOLER UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE LAKE.
152 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON THE 4TH. AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS NY STATE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
A VERY GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today, with continued dry conditions.
115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S. BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STRETCHES FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN MANY SPOTS THANK TO MORE CLOUD COVER. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS MOSTLY CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND STILL MOSTLY DRY UNDER FLAT RIDGING ALOFT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE HIGHEST.
305 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
AS A RESULT, AFTER THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CLEAR OUT, SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU HEAD NORTH.
346 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD INDUCE N-S ORIENTED LOWER-DECK TROFFING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER THAT'LL BECOME MORE ASSERTIVE.
HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE TROUGH SETUP WILL LEAD TO A STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD OVERALL. QUASI/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF SPEED MAXIMUM TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN NEVADA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. HEAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN TRINITY COUNTY CLOSER TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE TROUGH OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL FEED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE PERSISTING RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND MAINTAIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD. WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING CROSSES THE PAC NW. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
636 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
250 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS AS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE ARE MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING ALOFT TO HELP BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
351 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS MOVING EAST OF THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF ALOFT THAT EXTENDED FM TX BACK TOWARD NEW MEX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FM THE COAST OF SE LA SW TOWARD NERN MEXICO. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD STORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE SHALLOW AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LVL TROF. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 TODAY-TONIGHT: RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY. TEMPERATURES A BIGGER CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS VERY SHARP RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH RELATIVELY EARLY. WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. WEEKEND: INCREASING RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER EACH DAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A TWO PRONG RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL AS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
322 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS TOMORROW IS ON DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT PLUS 3H JET.
THESE CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON FLURRIES OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
As of 16Z, an upper level ridge sits above the eastern Pacific and far western United States with a long wave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes Region down into northwestern Mexico. Two lobes of energy are found in this trough, with one currently moving southward from Northern Plains into the Central Plains and a second slowly shifting eastward from New Mexico into the Southern Plains. Towards the surface, a dome of high pressure is centered across the Central Rockies with a weak cold front located in the Upper Mississippi Valley region. Dry conditions will continue through tomorrow as high pressure dominates the forecast area.
AND KEEPING TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE STATE. MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TODAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN U. SATURDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER INTO THE ROCKIES.
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH COOLER AIR STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS GIVING THE FINAL PUSH TONIGHT TO SEND THE FRONT SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEX TONIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY GETS A STRONGER PUSH BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS. MORE INLINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. AS COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN U.
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EWD TONIGHT. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER TX IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROF.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
INCREASING CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND A CONTINUED SURGE OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE UP SERVING TO KEEP MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF.
Despite temperatures dropping into the lower 30s tonight, enough mixing of the low levels looks to keep any frost more patchy in nature and after coordination with surrounding offices will not be issuing any advisories tonight. On Saturday, dry airmass remains in place with the center of the high still off to the west of the area, but nudging closer. Windspeeds should drop off quickly Saturday evening as the center of the high then drifts across the area.
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 929 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND IT.
202 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PASS. HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FOLD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST CAUSING THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING TO THE EAST. WILL SEE THE FIRST HINTS OF THE NEXT SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE OHIO COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN EXITING. RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
Temperatures should fall into the low and mid 30s so frost will be a concern. Think Saturday will be slightly warmer than today. particularly in central Missouri where wind will start out from the west southwest for the first 1/2 of the day ahead of another reinforcing cold front. Wind will be a potential issue as the pressure gradient tightens between the associated low over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the eastern Plains. The ridge axis will quickly push thru the CWA, with winds turning sly by sunrise. Another cold front will move thru Saturday morning, and will veer winds from the NW, after a brief period of backing from W-SW during late tonight, and strengthen them as well, with gusts to 30-35kts expected for much of the day.
319 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE A COMPROMISE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF TEMPS. THE RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS TO 576+ DAM EXISTS ALONG THE PAC COAST TODAY. AND ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN WHILE SHIFTING EAST IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND.
/issued 617 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ A cold front is moving south through the forecast area.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.
210 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DOWNSLOPE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.