Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the Low rotates thru tonight, it will drag its clouds, maybe some isolated showers, with it.
A weak ridge will move into the area tonight and Friday for mainly dry weather.
The area remains under the influence of low pressure at the surrface and aloft. Discussion: A 500 MB trough is forecast to exit to the east this evening along with its pocket of cold air aloft and moisture. This will bring any shower activity to an end over the evenings hours as high pressure builds into the Plains. Temperatures quickly rebound during the day on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 40s north of Highway 30 to the lower 50s south.
756 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will move through the area this evening.
A mix of mid and high clouds are funneling into the western half of the forecast area behind the passing weak cold frontal boundary. East of the front, winds were southerly over the Highway 83 corridor, with decreasing northeast winds over the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley. Tonight, the cold front is expected to move through all but the far southeast portion of the forecast area as the attendant upper low moves into western Manitoba.
/issued 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Plains ridging over the forecast area, while our old frontal boundary is now east of us and extending swwd into the cntl Gulf.
Yesterdays strong passing cold front now well east. But there is an incoming weak SFC/LL trough, and a sharp upper trough still to pass. Around 12Z Tues, there is a frontal boundary expected to be draped just to our north and we will see several upper wave pass Tues-Thu, before a deep trough swings by Thu night. The frontal boundary will retreat as a warm front Tues, then a cold front will push through early Thu. This flow will also bring in pools of deeper moisture and period of pcpn are expected Tues through Thu, although chances will be the lowest on Thu. Aft 12Z, look for high pressure to begin building in with clearing skies.
A ridge of high pressure that governed over most of Florida will continue to slide east and lose its grip on the local weather. Breezes will continue to slacken over the next several days as high pressure slides east of the Keys.
A ridge is currently passing over the Great Basin region.
1053 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front pushes east of our area this evening and be off the Carolina coast early Friday.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTH GA TO NEAR 50 DEG ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WED WILL HELP TO BRING SOME GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BRINGING TEMPS DOWN TO SOME OF THE LOWEST LEVELS WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER.
A WEAK ANTICYCLONE AND SNOW COVER WILL ATTEMPT TO OFFSET WARMING. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN U.
A VERY DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY BETWEEN HUDSON BAY LOW AND WEST COAST RIDGE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z.
157 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS TX/LA AND NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
This feature has caused a low pressure to form at the surface with a cold front extending westward, which is currently tracking through the forecast area. Temperatures ahead of the this low were able to reach near or above freezing, which may make it difficult to accumulate given the short fall period. Winds have increased behind the low pressure with gusts up to 10 to 25 mph, but it appears the blowing snow is no longer an issue given these warm temperatures.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND/OR RETURN TO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
1033 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE WRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 425 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ COLD FRONT WELL INTO GULF. DIRTY NW FLOW AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD STREAKS IN AREA. AS WELL AS A RETURN TO LIGHT SW WINDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FURTHER COOLING BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MAY LINGER CLOSER TO FREEZING MARK IN EAST TX.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
121 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROF TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. INITIAL S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY EVENING. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH DEEP TROF SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC COLD FRONT OVER NW OHIO AT EVENING TO SWEEP SE THRU ILN/S FA TONIGHT. RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES AS THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL AND WEST, WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY: ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN CONTROL BEHIND THE PASSING SYNOPTIC TROUGH.
WENT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW THAN MOST MODELS INDICATED WITHIN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST TOMORROW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S OVER THE FRESH SNOW FIELD.
There is also a threat of patchy IFR conditions in freezing fog at KCTB and KGTF thru 17Z.
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT ADJUSTED FOR "DARBY SNOW FOOT PRINT EFFECT" COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE NERN CWA. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST TOPPED 40 LAST HOUR BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. IN THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
NEXT CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 341 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW ANCHORED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN U. DEEP 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN DURING THE DAY.
134 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. LATEST OPERATIONAL SUITES SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEG TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH WITH RAPIDLY ERODING STABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U. VIA PERSISTENT TROUGH.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 223 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVHD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS SHOWING THAT THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS AND THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING AND/OR QUICKLY EXITING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. LARGE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
348 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
344 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RELAX WINDS AND THEN IT SLIDES INTO MATAGORDA BAY AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS LINGER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE REGION AND OPENS THE GULF BACK UP.
NOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL OFF EAST AND THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TOP OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS BELOW FREEZING AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. BUT THEY WILL BE REPLACED THROUGH THE DAY BY MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW THAT MOST OF THESE HAVE BEEN BELOW THE LOWEST SLICE OF THE RADAR. /15/ THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PACIFIC COAST. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE ERN AND CNTRL CONUS.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region tonight and will bring warmer temperatures aloft and colder temperatures in valleys.
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS OUT.
1214 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY BEFORE MID WEEK DISTURBANCES USHERS IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. SNOW HAS ENDED AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE RIDGES MAY KEEP CLOUDS THERE. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES HOWEVER. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE. COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. MODELS DO SHIFT H5 RIDGE FROM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE WEST COAST/ ROCKIES REGION.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS REFREEZING OCCURS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING. ANYTHING THAT MELTS WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER WILL OCCUR AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING SHOWED DRY NW FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH LOWS DESPITE KEEPING THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. BUT HAVE TRENDED TO THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WELL AS A LIGHT WIND FLOW SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP /AS IT TENDS TO DO POST STRONG COLD FRONTS/ WHICH WOULD FURTHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. KEPT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER ISOLATED LOW LYING LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST.
Temperatures remain a bit warmer than previously anticipated, with readings in the lower and middle 30s as of 3 AM. Impacts are expected to be minimal as temperatures remain at or just above freezing through the early morning hours, however, slick spots may develop on bridges and overpasses.
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AND WEDNESDAY SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITING THE AREA AT 09Z. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING BY TONIGHT AND BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DESPITE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE.
THE LOW LEVEL CLD DECKS WILL STEADILY CLR LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL EFFECTS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT OVER LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MET NUMBERS BEING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MAV AND ECS COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER.
Weakening low pressure system over central MT will gradually shift eastward today.
132 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THROUGH MIDWEEK, CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
FINAL PIECE OF MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. GROUND TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA.
1056 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BKN DECK AROUND 1500 FT ALREADY SCATTERING OUT/DISSIPATING AND SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM REACHING THE LEVELS THEY HAD OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AWAY FROM THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS A WARMER AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
228 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. SKIES STILL REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ABOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
205 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. YET REMAINING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE NARROW RIDGE AXIS HAS BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICAN COAST.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES AS THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL AND WEST, WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST. WITH A 150KT JET OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 30S IN NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. AS THE WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
COLD AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING JUST ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE LIFT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE ENVIRONMENT. / HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME WAA IN THE LOWEST 5K FT.
Johnson Models are in agreement per the latter half of the week with upper ridging over the southwestern CONUS resulting in a northwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
341 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NEAR A WEAK RIPPLE ALONG THE 925MB THETA E RIDGE MOVING THROUGH. THIS WEAK THETA E RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AND SO SHOULD MOST OF THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS A COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH THE ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO NO SNOW COVER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 20S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. A LITTLE WORRIED THAT THE FORECAST LOWS WILL END UP WARMER DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW COVER BUT WITH SUCH COLD READINGS AT 925MB. CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WEST WIND HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE AREA AND ALSO BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. A DEEP TROUGH WAS ANALYZED AT 500HPA WITH A STRONG JET AT 250HPA DIVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BIT COOLER AIR WAS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE WHICH HAS HELPED TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
117 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY BEFORE MID WEEK DISTURBANCES USHERS IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. SNOW HAS ENDED AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. CLEARING SHOULD WORK IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE RIDGES MAY KEEP CLOUDS THERE. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES HOWEVER. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE. COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
1124 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. A SECONDARY WAVE WAS NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FINALLY BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
144 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE DID GO CLOSER TO THE COLDER GUIDANCE BUT LACK OF SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD PROVE MY FORECAST A BIT TO PESSIMISTIC. THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL TOPPED OFF BY PACIFIC ENERGY AND PUSHED INLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH (THAT GETS CARVED OUT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST).
1134 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHEAST UNDER SW FLOW. EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING.
SOME CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRODUCE DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS HELPING DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO IOWA BRINGING FRIGID TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1035 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVHD ATTM AND WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH IS WEAK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY. /ISSUED 433 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE THROUGH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
930 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2015 NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY UNDER A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE WRLY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR UP AS THE FLOW WILL NOT BE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO. LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WL OCCUR AT THIS TIME ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AND JOIN FORCES WITH SFC TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS CANADA ON SAT/SAT NGT.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING. ANYTHING THAT MELTS WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER WILL OCCUR AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.
A pressure gradient will set up over the area ahead of this trough, especially across east central Kansas. As a result, have continued to trend toward the warmer side of guidance with highs reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s. Model soundings still show very dry conditions in the low levels, so with decent mixing this afternoon expect lower dewpoint temperatures to mix down once again today and have trended on the low side of guidance. These low RH values along with breezy winds will lead to some areas of very high fire danger today, especially across east central Kansas where the highest wind gusts are expected. While there will not be much in the way of cold air advection behind this trough, expect radiational cooling to bump overnight low temperatures down into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
230 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
Surface obs indicate a broad trough of low pressure has moved out from the lee of the Rockies into the plains.
THAT WILL START TO CHANGE MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL START TO APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1028 MB) IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR AREA.