Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A very unorganized mid-lvl trough continues to pivot across the Northern Plains this afternoon, with smaller vorticity maximum moving through portions of the Dakotas and Middle Missouri River Valley region. Thursday: High pressure settles southward on Thursday bring slightly cooler temperatures. We should see scattered strato-cu develop by mid-day as cooler air aloft filters southwest. Another fairly quiet day will see high temperatures return to the lower and middle 80s. This weekend: A larger upper trough is expected to move out of Central Canada towards the Great Lakes as the weekend begins.
High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions through the upcoming weekend. High pressure centered near far southern Nevada this evening will strengthen and slowly migrate eastward through the week, putting the ridge axis over Utah Friday through the weekend.
145 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Surface analysis this morning shows much of the same story as the last few days, which is high pressure centered to the north of the Great Lakes keeping conditions mild and pleasant across MN and western WI.
1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 This evening will continue to be beautiful under the high pressure. Fog should dissipate by morning as the sun warms the lower atmosphere. High pressure and pleasant weather are here to stay for the rest of the work week as we settle under an upper level ridge Thursday into Friday. Friday should start out quiet as the high pressure makes its way east.
329 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Clear skies and radiational cooling has given way to temperatures dropping into the lower 50s across the Northland. Friday high pressure will begin to exit the region as a cold front will advance out of the northwest. Prior to the frontal system breaching the borders of MN the day will have calm conditions with light winds and slightly higher temps in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front will increase the winds and turn them to the north this morning. Current satellite analysis depicts a mid to upper level high over AZ, southern CA, and southern NV with a ridge extending over the Sierra Nevada's. The main trough is located over the northeastern CONUS. Today surface winds are light and variable which is not helping to bring moisture up the higher terrain. Going into tomorrow, a surface cold front is expected to move through the area between sunrise and late morning hours.
326 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure.
1130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Periodic rain chances are then expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms mainly N of I 80 near a weak sfc cold front should wane overnight with the loss of instability, and exiting upper level support. Areas south and southeast of PIT should continue to see shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday night and Friday with this area in close proximity to the weak cold front, and where better upper support is progged. Dry weather should return to the north of this area as high pressure begins to build in.
Behind this initial trough passage tonight, some midlevel drying ensues that will lower rain chances after 00Z.
An upper trough will dig to the west of the forecast area. Cooler than normal afternoon temperatures will prevail across the northern half of the forecast area during this period, with near normal temperatures expected across the southern half.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good, however did increase pops slightly across the lower I81 corridor where convection continues, as well over the southern Valley. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 72 89 72 88 / 80 60 80 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 72 87 72 88 / 90 80 80 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 85 72 87 71 87 / 90 80 80 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 70 83 68 87 / 90 90 90 40 70.
Water vapor shows an upper low spinning right over the BLKHLS with radar indicating showers/thunderstorms likewise rotating around the BLKHLS. Given the high precipitable water and weak mean wind, heavy rains and flash flooding will continue to be a threat through this evening, and possibly into early Thursday. However, it does appear that the upper low will shift southeast a little on Thursday, with precipitable water dropping as well. An upper ridge will build eastward slightly through the northern Rockies Friday, and will result in slightly warmer air for the area.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Sfc and upper level low pressure was spinning over Quebec early this morning, while high pressure extended from western Ontario down through the nrn Plains. The upper low will peel off to the east today and tonight, with an upper trough axis pushing south across nrn Michigan. Pattern synopsis/forecast: A broad long wave trough will continue it's eastward movement from the Great Lakes region throughout the forecast period. Winds will become light and variable as high pressure moves overhead.
Areas of light precipitation have been common in recent hours in mainly northern portions of the CWA near a mid-level low, however much more impressive convection has pushed ESE into central Kansas apparently associated with a modest mid-level speed max southwest of the mean upper low to the north.
(Today and tonight) Main concern in the short term is a storm complex coming off the high plains of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. For this afternoon, a lee cold front coming off Kansas will begin to push in.
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 (This evening through Thursday) The main concerns for the short term period are the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over NW Oklahoma (including portions of Harper, Woodward, Woods, and Alfalfa Counties) and the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, especially over northern Oklahoma, in association with a midlevel trough tracking SE from the WY/SD/NE junction.
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will move from southwest Nebraska through western Kansas and into western Oklahoma by late tonight.
While heavy rain is a possibility due to slow movement of the system, still some uncertainty of the location of any potential excessive rainfall, but with the LLJ focused into the southwest corner of the state, this area probably has the highest chances of seeing heavy pcpn. Looking ahead to the weekend, upper ridge over the Rockies builds eastward into the midwest Friday, bringing warmer temps into the region.
Tonight with clearing skies, radiational cooling and cooler temps will occur. Then on Thursday, the only area really under the gun for convection will be in our eastern zones, namely Natrona and Johnson Counties, with their closer proximity to the back side of the exiting trough over the Plains and the resultant instability. The rest of the area will be mostly dry, given the large high center becoming reestablished over the Desert Southwest, and the associated ridging extending north into our area, along with the weakening northwest confluent flow overhead around the front side of the ridge. With the high building into the area Thursday, temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer east of the Divide Thursday, and 5 to 10 degrees warmer west.
Lower level ridging is also nearby and is associated with some drier air. There is some suggestion that a small scale lower level trough is riding westward.
Upper ridging becoming more predominant across the northern gulf combined with some drier (relatively) mid level air will result in much more isolated convection today.
Low level flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of this feature, which will allow for warmer downslope temperatures Friday, which will also be aided by the still temperate dewpoints.
On the large scale, the pattern continues to be characterized by a broad upper-level low over northern Ontario and Quebec and upstream ridging covering much of the western US and western Canada. This means temps should fall off nicely tonight - into the upper 40s over the interior west - and remain a few ticks warmer over the east. Mid-level height rises as the upper-level low pulls away and ridging builds in should keep skies mostly clear, expect for a bit of diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb ridge across the Rockies and troughing across the central U. The troughing in the central U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough across the upper Great Lakes down the Mississippi River valley 12z Sun which remains stationary through 12z Thu.
302 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Upper level trough axis will swing south over the Central Great Lakes today and gradually wash out tonight/tomorrow, as 500 MB low center reaches the St Lawrence River. The good sfc-850 MB moisture axis has finally shifted south of the state, with drier air bleeding in from the anti-cyclone to the northwest. Best shot of a stray shower this afternoon is actually probably near Saginaw Bay with some semblance of positive upper level PV advection, along with the drought stricken Thumb region as northeast winds off Lake Huron actually contributes to the low level moisture with the noted water temperatures in the 70s across southern Lake Huron. High temperatures expected to reside mostly in the lower 80s for the majority of southeast Michigan today and tomorrow based on 850 MB temps around 14 C.
127 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Weak low pressure approaches from the west, while upper level disturbances cross the area Thursday. Another low and cold front approach over the weekend.
These showers will likely continue across north central Missouri overnight as the trough starts to stall and become more W to E oriented. By midnight the trough and surface boundary will shift to our south, ending the flooding threat. The abnormal synoptic pattern continues into the weekend with an almost N-S orientation of winds across the Plains as the long wave trough deepens into the middle of the country.
The setup involves an upper trough dropping southeast from the central high plains with a well defined mid and upper level speed max around 60 knots at 300 millibars crossing the Panhandle and South Plains later today along with at least modest deformation over the South Plains, a cold front that will settle into the central and southern parts of the area later this afternoon, and a moist and unstable/uncapped environment. Temperatures today favor again the warmer side of guidance as has been the trend most of the month of July. RMcQueen The upper-level ridge that has been bringing northwesterly flow aloft and injecting disturbances into the area remains over the southwest CONUS. A stalled front over the area will push farther south early Friday as a trough over the central Plains continues to dip south.
High pressure will exert more influence on Friday and with the low further to the east, the winds will relax some.
By Thursday night, a thermal trough will develop from Eastern Washington through southwest Idaho. At the same time, a strong high pressure system will drop southward, east of the Continental Divide. For example, Pierce, Idaho is forecast to cool off to 59F, which is among the highest minimum temperatures ever recorded for late July through early August.
424 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 An upper level ridge is building over the western part of the country with an upper trough that extends from the northeast U. A cold front associated with the upper trough will move southward today across the Texas panhandle. The cold front is expected to move into the area Friday morning with high temperatures in the 90s across most places.
Showers and thunderstorms are still possible today as the upper level trof swings through the region. Temps today are expected to be around 7-10 degree cooler than yesterday with northerly flow at the sfc. As a ridge builds over the western CONUS and this trof continues to exit to the east, we essentially end up sandwiched between the two. Therefore any ridge running short waves, or waves that slide down the backside of the trof, will likely impact the Central Plains.
High pressure over the southwest United States will flex its muscle this week, providing dry conditions and sending daytime temperatures towards the 100 degree mark through the weekend, perhaps breaking some temperature records. Currently, high pressure is centered over the southern tip of Nevada, pointing a ridge axis through eastern Nevada. Today, the high pressure axis will be shifting east to re-center over Arizona. The ridge will strongly amplify, sending 580DM height rises all the way north past the 60th parallel, close to the Arctic Circle. The ridge axis will hold pretty steady through Arizona and Utah for the next couple days.
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Clear skies and radiational cooling has given way to temperatures dropping into the lower 50s across the Northland. Friday high pressure will begin to exit the region as a cold front will advance out of the northwest. Prior to the frontal system breaching the borders of MN the day will have calm conditions with light winds and slightly higher temps in the low to mid 80s.
544 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 North winds will pick up behind a cold front this morning at around 15 knots with higher gusts. /Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will move from southwest Nebraska through western Kansas and into western Oklahoma by late tonight.
213 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Expect plenty of sunshine through the weekend as a high pressure ridge brings warm and fairly dry conditions to the region. Pronounced upper ridge centered over NV-AZ will keep conditions warm and quite dry through at least the upcoming weekend.
/issued 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ Broad mid level ridging will remain stretched across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula today and Friday, while the surface based subtropical ridge axis extends from the Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula. This will setup weak low level flow and slightly above normal temperatures, with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s.
For this afternoon, the ridge extending from the Atlantic towards our local waters, will keep a south flow late this morning and becoming southwest to west in the afternoon.
426 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 The trough continues to dive to the southeast across the Central Plains, with ridging building across the Intermountain West. The ridge is not overly strong, so temperatures will remain near normal in the 80s and lower 90s today and tomorrow, but a few showers may still pop up with daytime heating over higher elevations, especially for the Big Horn Range, which will be on the far eastern edge of the trough, and may be impacted by small scale passing vorts moving through. A warm and mostly dry weekend is in store for much of Wyoming as ridging continues to dominate.
609 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 (Today and tonight) Main concern in the short term is a storm complex coming off the high plains of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. For this afternoon, a lee cold front coming off Kansas will begin to push in.
Will time the higher PoPs today to coincide with the arrival of the stronger lift. Short term model data suggest there may be a rather sharp cutoff to the northern fringes of the precipitation area, so hesitant to spread the high PoPs too far north. Over the northern zones, a weakening cold front is expected to drop in from the north later today. Otherwise, general upper troughing is expected to hold over the Midwest during this period.
Temperatures are already a little cooler this morning, especially north of I-80. The area will remain between offshore longwave troughing and a building Four Corners ridge.
537 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure.
Thompson (Today and tonight) Main concern in the short term is a storm complex coming off the high plains of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. For this afternoon, a lee cold front coming off Kansas will begin to push in.
East winds around the low result in an upslope component, while isentropic upglide corresponds with decent moisture.
Models then indicate the best rain chances will still remain north of our counties, along and near an approaching cold front, tonight; however, some convection may develop, mainly along and north of a Sterling City to Baird line, tonight.
As long as thunderstorm complex, currently pushing into northwest Oklahoma continues to weaken this morning, atmosphere should once again destabilize this afternoon ahead of cold front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue into the day Friday as upper trough swings into eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas. ECMWF and NAM suggesting the potential for a little stronger and more cutoff low swinging around base of upper trough during the day which could aid in heavier QPF amounts.
/issued 424 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ An upper level ridge is building over the western part of the country with an upper trough that extends from the northeast U. A cold front associated with the upper trough will move southward today across the Texas panhandle. The cold front is expected to move into the area Friday morning with high temperatures in the 90s across most places.
Mid level trough digging farther south today, with a separate mid-level disturbance moving up the Rio Grande Plains. Will see a couple degrees warmer on Friday with highs west around or just above 100.
High temperatures will be cooler today, mainly due to low level cloud cover inhibiting solar insolation along with periods of rainfall. The best chance of rain on Friday will be across southeast MO as the front shifts south of the forecast area along with the highest low level moisture and instability.
648 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Surface analysis this morning shows much of the same story as the last few days, which is high pressure centered to the north of the Great Lakes keeping conditions mild and pleasant across MN and western WI.
These storms are riding a warm front associated with a low pressure system located over Saint Louis, Missouri. A vort max will pivot through Oklahoma Friday morning and eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the day.
427 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Rather unusual pattern, for late July, as an upper level low is over the central plains. Showers and tstms will develop later this morning into the aftn hours on the backside of the low. As for highs, readings across nern CO will range from the low to mid 70s, over the far nern plains, with lower 80s along the front range. For tonight, the upper level trough will move away from the area with showers and storms gradually ending by early to mid evening. The upcoming week is going to feature a high amplitude ridge over the Intermountain West that will primarily limit the amount of moisture available to produce showers or thunderstorms over Colorado.
Low pressure tracking to our south will combine with high pressure nudging in from the north, to result in some uptick in northeast winds, especially later today into tonight across the southeast portions of the area. High pressure will exert more influence on Friday and with the low further to the east, the winds will relax some.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the interior west will bring hot and dry conditions through the upcoming weekend.
936 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Fog has diminished with temperatures already in the low 70s. Forecast on track with another day of some cirrus clouds and plenty of sun as highs climb into the low to mid 80s.
815 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure.
So, have brushed in low PoPs for today into early evening with the highest values over the east and along foothills. Highs today reach the lower to mid 90s, with cooler readings over the east and in locations that have moist ground from recent rainfall. TWH As ridging builds in from the west on Friday, a trough dropping out of Manitoba into the Northern Plains will send a front through the Dakotas, backdooring into Montana.
145 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 The upper ridge to our west builds eastward today, bringing warmer temps for today and Friday with highs in the mid and upper 80s. A surface frontal boundary is expected to pass through the Dakotas Friday, bringing our next chance for showers/storms and setting up a cooler latter half of the weekend. A mid-level ridge over the Rockies will allow a positive tilt trof to form over the eastern CONUS.
Tomorrow, the low moves south, down the Mississippi River Valley.
/Issued 544 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ North winds will pick up behind a cold front this morning at around 15 knots with higher gusts. /Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/ A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will move from southwest Nebraska through western Kansas and into western Oklahoma by late tonight.
High pressure aloft will remain centered over Arizona through the short term. For today, in the wake of a cold front and under northwesterly flow, we have northerly wind speeds across much of the region.
An upper ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward over the local area through the near term while an upstream trough deepens over the Great Plains. Subsidence beneath the upper ridge, in combination with a slug of drier air in the mid levels (PWATs < 1. 5 inches) moving into the area from the southwest, should help suppress convective development through the near term despite the impinging trough to our west. For the most part, however, the best rain chances remain to our north and east where deeper moisture will remain plentiful, and to our west where the upper trough is providing stronger forcing. Low temperatures tonight remain in the low/mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Friday continue to trend warmer, reaching the low to mid 90s across much of the area and upper 80s along the beaches.
With temperatures expected to top out in the lower/mid 90s and SFC dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, peak afternoon apparent temperatures are expected to be the 100 to 105 range. Upper ridging becoming more predominant across the northern gulf combined with some drier (relatively) mid level air will result in much more isolated convection today.
Another very hot day on tap as a ridge of high pressure continues to influence the area. Temperatures will again reach into the 100s in the lower elevations with record high temperatures possible just about everywhere in the forecast area.
Ahead of the low track, band of heavier rainfall appears possible, similar to the setup today, with steady moderate to at times heavy rainfall rates within the deformation axis.
250 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 (Tonight and Friday) A disturbance moving across the Plains will swing a cold front across the region. This combined with the passing low pressure will create conditions that are more favorable for thunderstorm development. Otherwise, look for slightly cooler temperatures for Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will settle into the low to mid 70s tonight.
Slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected Friday and through the weekend, with continued onshore winds and a return of stratus each night.
Look for winds to shift across the terminals as a weak cold front moves across the area. Models then indicate the best rain chances will still remain north of our counties, along and near an approaching cold front, tonight; however, some convection may develop, mainly along and north of a Sterling City to Baird line, tonight.
1122 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2020 The trough continues to dive to the southeast across the Central Plains, with ridging building across the Intermountain West. The ridge is not overly strong, so temperatures will remain near normal in the 80s and lower 90s today and tomorrow, but a few showers may still pop up with daytime heating over higher elevations, especially for the Big Horn Range, which will be on the far eastern edge of the trough, and may be impacted by small scale passing vorts moving through. A warm and mostly dry weekend is in store for much of Wyoming as ridging continues to dominate.