Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
625 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (Today) The unseasonably hot/humid wx pattern continues this Tue, as a strong upper ridge axis remains centered near the central TN Valley, while high pressure at the sfc remains layered from the southern Atlantic Coast into the eastern Gulf. Dew pts are also expected to remain in the lower/mid 70s, which should translate into max heat indices around 103-107F.
Surface winds suggest a weak inverted trough axis across the Keys, although convergence along the axis is limited. Gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend, mainly peaking overnight and lulling during the day, as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic and the Florida peninsula.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s in far eastern Colorado, middle 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s.
A closed upper level low continues to rotate over northern Montana and southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, while a vort max evident on water vapor imagery was ejecting over the western Dakotas this afternoon. After sunset, convective coverage will diminish rapidly and then the upper level low will transition east over North Dakota. First, the majority of the day looks to be in the warm air advection regime of the trough, lacking the low level subsidence necessary for prime momentum transfer. Additionally, the suite of deterministic guidances still display some discrepancies in the arrival timing of the 850 mb jet, likely differing in how to resolve the eastward progression of a closed upper level low. Cooler temperatures continue with forecast highs in the 60s to low 70s.
134 PM PDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A hot day expected on Wednesday before another weather system brings cooler weather and a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week into the weekend. The trough will continue to shift east with a brief period of ridging building over NorCal tonight into Wednesday. A bit on onshore flow ahead of the next trough may trickle into the Delta, allowing for temperatures to stay a few degrees cooler than in the Valley.
105 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The cold front has made it to the eastern edge of the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows us in southwest flow aloft with the main trof off to our west expected to begin lifting northeastward today. The cold front that is expected to come through today looks to have sped up and will likely make it most of the way if not all of the way through the area before stalling out later today with winds becoming northerly in its wake. This would place most of the precip behind the sfc front where 700 mb temps are cooler and therefore there is less capping. Highs will be "cooler" Wednesday and closer to average in the mid to upper 80s.
209 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level analysis shows an upper level trough over the western US with an upper level low centered over northern MT and southern AB/SK. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are in place the rest of today and into tomorrow as the trough moves through. Wednesday afternoon the upper level low passes to the north and creates a tight pressure gradient over ND and northern SD. Ridge builds over the region later in the week and a warming and drying trend will start.
As evident on the visible satellite, a cold front bisects the area this afternoon, with temps ranging from seasonably reasonable low 80s near South Dakota to mid-90s in closer to Missouri. The low- level stability may decrease the odds of severe wind potential a bit, but forecast soundings don't exactly preclude it.
dewpoints were able to mix out a little more than this time yesterday and were running about 0-6 deg cooler than 24-hrs ago.
The upper level ridge axis is now east of the region which has been part of the reason for the drier air this afternoon. The ridge axis will remain east of the region tonight with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night will see more dry and hot weather as the ridge axis remains to our east.
334 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Most of the island chain has experienced thundery rains since this morning, except for eastern portions of the Lower Keys. Much of the coastal waters to the east of the Lower Keys are suppressed at this time, and satellite derived moisture products roughly portray drier air where the radar has gone dormant. High pressure over the southeastern United States will merge with the west-east ridge axis over Florida tonight and Wednesday. To the east of Florida, a relic frontal boundary and its pooled moisture will fuse into the core of the ridge and spread across Florida for the next few days.
A cold front trucked along through the region this morning and has since stalled out along our eastern boundary this afternoon. Several sites reported a welcome dip in temperatures as cooler air filtered into the region. An upper trough continues to push into the area with southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. The upper trough and a closed low lift to the north and east through the day. Temperatures are expected to be cooler across the region with highs ranging from the low to mid-80s.
Upper level ridging continues to dominate across the Southeast this afternoon. This upper level pattern combined with strong solar insolation has allowed temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 90s as of 1pm this afternoon.
222 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A mid/upper level ridge over the southeastern U. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis sits across the central Florida peninsula with rather light flow becoming west/northwest in the afternoon as the sea breeze kicks in. Temperatures will also run quite warm with the ridge aloft.
We'll just have Lacy (Tomorrow through Tuesday) The mid level ridge center has shifted far enough east and the low level thermal ridge has contracted back to the west enough to take some of the bite out of the dangerous heat observed over the weekend. An upper trough lifting toward the northern Plains has forced a slow moving front south down the Plains. The mid level ridge center will retrograde back over us again by the latter part of the week and will be hanging out for awhile. With ridge center nearly overhead, chances are too low to mention in the forecast at this point.
Soundings showing very steep mid level lapse rates and good instability profiles, combined with strong veering hodographs near the warm front. Behind the low westerly winds will develop and bring drier air into the area with gusts this afternoon from the west at 35mph. Cooler temps with mostly dry conditions tomorrow with slight chances along the northern border late tomorrow afternoon as the upper low approaches.
216 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level trough axis oriented NW-SE over the Rockies and High Plains this afternoon. Cold front that blew through the CWA last night was located from eastern Nebraska to west-central Kansas. Upper level trough pivots ENE into the northern and central Plains Wednesday, with upstream ridging aloft beginning to build over the Rockies Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will average about 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday.
The center of the large upper ridge is off to our east with most of the region being on the western side of its grip. Temperatures today have risen into the lower to mid 90s and heat indices have been around 100 to 105 degrees, with perhaps a site or two briefly breaking north of 105 degrees. This, along with temperatures a little cooler, has resulted in lower heat indices. /28/ By Wednesday night, a high pressure ridge over the southeastern CONUS is expected to remain in place through the remainder of the forecast. This strong, deep-layer ridging pattern will maintain moist, southerly flow through the remainder of the work week. This moisture will drive dewpoints to linger in the lower to middle 70s.
By late afternoon, showers will diminish as the trough axis exits and a ridge builds in its place. Could see an isolated lightning strike over the Blue Mountains today, but chances are low since forecast instability is weak according to HREF guidance, and trough passage and peak heating are not coincident. A northwest flow aloft will persist over the region today as the overall trough continues slowly moving eastward while a ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific nudges closer to the PacNW. This will provide clearing skies tonight and some cool temperatures especially in the higher elevations overnight. A new upper level trough of low pressure will set up off the coast on Wednesday and begin to turn the flow aloft to southwesterly.
An anomalously strong upper low over the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan, will be slow to lift northeast then eastward over the next 24-48 hours, with the southern portion of this trough moving across the northern and central Plains. The associated weak cold front extended from western Iowa across eastern Nebraska to western Kansas late this afternoon. Slightly cooler mid-level temperatures, deeper moisture pooling along the front, and frontal convergence will support scattered thunderstorms/clusters toward early Wednesday evening and will maintain slightly higher probabilities to the east of I-135.
233 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A rapidly deepening upper low over southern Saskatchewan will drive breezy winds tonight, thus the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake looks on track. Showers associated with the low will build in from the west overnight tonight, with pops ramping up by Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be windy, and unsettled as the low continues to spin over southern Saskatchewan.
Look for strong upper ridging and stagnant boundary layer flow to create yet another day of similar Heat Index values tomorrow.
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A weak front will linger around the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday while high pressure builds to the northeast and southwest.
The wind advisory will be cancelled early with most wind gusts in the lower to middle 30 mph range this afternoon. Lows tonight will should bottom out again in the middle 70s to near 80, with the warmer lows most likely over northern/northwest portions of Oklahoma where winds will be a little stronger. Temperatures across extreme northern Oklahoma expected to be several degrees cooler as well behind the front.
(This evening through Wednesday) Above normal temperatures and gusty southerly winds will persist over the area through tonight, as the area remains in between a strengthening trough to the west and a broadening ridge to the east.
The heat continues as we remain under the influence of a strong ridge to our east. The ridge and a slow developing low along the Front Range has led to a tight surface pressure gradient yielding gusts of around 30 mph. Even with the cooler temperatures, sufficient humidity will be in place for heat index values to increase between 100-104 degrees.
5um) shows an upper level low centered just west of the Rio Grande over northern Coahuila, Mexico. On the eastern periphery of this low, we are seeing an increase in mid and high level cloud cover moving into south central Texas. Look for very mild overnight lows in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. On Wednesday, expect another round of above normal high temperatures in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees.
An upper ridge building to our west will help temperatures will get very warm during the middle of the week, but an afternoon thunderstorm is still possible almost each day until a cold front passes through late in the week. High pressure should provide a fair and dry weekend. Temps currently ranging from the 70s to near 80 north through the lower to mid 70s south. Strong upper ridge builds east over the area through Wednesday, with building heat and humidity from west to east. There could be an afternoon or evening shower or storm, but upper level ridging will subdue those chances for most.
A CU field is currently forming over the higher terrain of W TX, and with continued diurnal heating and increased instability, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening. The mid lvl theta-e ridge will shift slightly further wwd Wednesday afternoon extending from far W TX swd to the Big Bend region where isold showers and storms will possible.
251 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Main forecast concerns continue to be on ongoing flooding and A trough and associated deepening low centered over southern Canada have brought windy conditions to the area today, along with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures have been in the 50s and 60s over the lower elevations today, with temperatures in the mountains in the upper 20s and 30s, slowing the snowmelt. The breezy westerly winds will continue into the evening and overnight as the low slowly tracks across southern Canada. Heading into Wednesday, the low lifting off to the north and east will continue to promote tight pressure gradients, and as a result, gusty winds. Cyclonic flow associated with the low will promote a few showers over northern parts of the area. Winds decrease Wednesday evening as high pressure builds over the area.
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis show a fairly amplified pattern over the lower 48 with a stout upper trough positioned over the northwest CONUS and a strong upper ridge across the southeast CONUS. Today, most of Kansas will continue to feel more influence from the upper ridge with widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s. Cooler mid-level temperatures should allow for a better chance at storm development, though trends have convection more focused across the eastern portions of Kansas.
Partly cloudy and hazy skies will follow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as upper ridging remains over the area.
212 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level analysis shows an upper level trough over the western US with an upper level low centered over northern MT and southern AB/SK. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are in place the rest of today and into tomorrow as the trough moves through. Wednesday afternoon the upper level low passes to the north and creates a tight pressure gradient over ND and northern SD. Ridge builds over the region later in the week and a warming and drying trend will start.
Scattered showers will taper today as an upper trough exits. High pressure will bring dry weather tonight and Wednesday.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and for areas adjacent to the St Johns River.
The forecast area spent today in the wake of a cold front in a generally dry and milder airmass. Values range from mid 40s along the Pine Ridge to mid 50s central, which are warmer than MOS guidance but fall in the middle of the NBM envelope. The upper ridge builds over the central US with a forecast H5 height around 594dm, which equates to 99%ile of climo. The NBM envelope has trended warmer, now suggesting mid 100s for highs across the southwest each day this weekend.
343 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure will build over the region tonight through Wednesday.
Warmer but still below normal temperatures today with gusty westerly winds.
The center of the upper ridge is to the east and we are on the western side with more southerly flow than westerly flow. There is also some potential for a little more mixing today, which could help bring dewpoints down some into the upper 60s and lower 70s versus the low to mid 70s. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: The hot temperatures will continue today with highs climbing into the mid 90s, as upper ridging prevails over the region. Another warm night is on tap with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Water Vapor imagery shows a strong ridge over the center part of the country. Over the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to flatten out over the lower Ohio Valley.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):Inverted trough is still situated over the Big Bend of Texas threatening to bring us some light showers.
A CU field is currently forming over the higher terrain of W TX, and with continued diurnal heating and increased instability, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening.
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, west central Texas remains between a deepening upper-level trough over the Rockies and a broad ridge over the southeast US. At the surface, lee-side troughing east of the Rockies will strengthen the pressure gradient and keep strong southerly winds in place today.
A closed upper level low continues to slowly drift eastward across southern Alberta this afternoon. Precipitation will continue across these aforementioned areas through midnight tonight before the closed low drifts off to the east.
1126 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper trough over the northwestern CONUS continues to push energy into the northern plains, helping to fuel clusters of thunderstorms across the Dakotas. At the surface, low pressure sits over central SD, and the cold front has made its way through the CWA. Beneath the cooler airmass, highs today will be only in the 60s and 70s, warmest across south central SD. Westerly winds will be breezy, especially across portions of northeastern WY, as a tight pressure gradient sets up north of low pressure across CO. The upper low will move to our north on Wednesday, creating a tight pressure gradient across ND and northern SD. A strong upper ridge amplifies over the central states later this week and into the weekend, resulting in very warm and mostly dry conditions.
436 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The 19/20z analysis shows high pressure building in over central Tennessee, which has cleared most of the cumulus cloud cover to the south and west of our CWA. Over most of eastern Kentucky however, persistent scattered cumulus as well as lingering high clouds has kept temperatures mainly in the lower 90s this afternoon. The forecast region remains directly centered near the subtropical ridge, which has produced record warmth and high humidity. Models have hinted at the possibility of diurnally induced convection popping over western TN/NC, so a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the far southeastern ridges. The oppressive dew points in the mid to upper 70s are also expected to ease back to the low 70s by tomorrow morning.
335 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Despite morning clouds, especially from the Twin Tiers southward, high pressure will lead to a mostly sunny afternoon.
Cyclonic flow aloft remains fixed over the Pacific Northwest, attendant to a strong upper low moving eastward across northern Montana.
A ridge is centered over the region tonight and tomorrow. At the surface, weak high pressure is in place over the Southeast with no obvious surface features. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening but so far activity has been suppressed by ridging and an inversion around 5000 ft on forecast skew-t data. Tomorrow will be the same scenario with ridging in place and an inversion present as seen on forecast skew-t analysis.
The high Uintas look to have received a good snow from this last system and the eastern Uintas still have a few showers continuing. With the low shifting off towards the Hudson Bay, weak ridging moves in to the Great Basin with lighter winds and warmer afternoon highs. A broad area of high pressure sets up over the southeastern US while an area of low pressure and associated trough come ashore over Washington and Oregon.
The main influence on the short term weather across South Texas will be a vorticity maximum associated with a subtle inverted trough located over northeastern Mexico. The trough axis is forecast to lift northwestward through the next 48 hours. While available moisture is expected to increase on Wednesday, warm environmental temperatures from 850-650 hPa combined with mid- level lapses rates generally less than 7 C/km and being on the subsident side of the trough axis will limit the potential for precipitation.
The worst conditions will be in the urban areas of Chicago, where overnight lows (heat indices) will likely not drop out of the low 80s (mid 80s). A cold front arcing south from low pressure over the Canadian prairies will approach the area from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Deep convection is likely to initiate on this cold front to our west- northwest over eastern Iowa Wednesday afternoon within a highly unstable and strongly sheared environment.
(Tomorrow through Tuesday) The mid level ridge center has shifted far enough east and the low level thermal ridge has contracted back to the west enough to take some of the bite out of the dangerous heat observed over the weekend. An upper trough lifting toward the northern Plains has forced a slow moving front south down the Plains. The mid level ridge center will retrograde back over us again by the latter part of the week and will be hanging out for awhile. With ridge center nearly overhead, chances are too low to mention in the forecast at this point.
Much Drier and warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the work week. The heavier accumulating snows have generally been reserved for elevations above 6000 ft and additional snowfall amounts up to a foot can be for the higher terrain in these respective areas.
1015 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure and upper-level ridging continue to dominate our weather.
A haze was quite apparent today as well beneath the upper ridge. Temperatures as a result will dip into the lower to middle 70s by morning.
316 PM MST Tue Jun 14 2022 Temperatures will warm up over the next couple of days as the region once again comes under the influence of high pressure.
726 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The 19/20z analysis shows high pressure building in over central Tennessee, which has cleared most of the cumulus cloud cover to the south and west of our CWA. Over most of eastern Kentucky however, persistent scattered cumulus as well as lingering high clouds has kept temperatures mainly in the lower 90s this afternoon. The forecast region remains directly centered near the subtropical ridge, which has produced record warmth and high humidity. Models have hinted at the possibility of diurnally induced convection popping over western TN/NC, so a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the far southeastern ridges. The oppressive dew points in the mid to upper 70s are also expected to ease back to the low 70s by tomorrow morning.
441 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level analysis shows an upper level trough over the western US with an upper level low centered over northern MT and southern AB/SK. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are in place the rest of today and into tomorrow as the trough moves through. Wednesday afternoon the upper level low passes to the north and creates a tight pressure gradient over ND and northern SD. Ridge builds over the region later in the week and a warming and drying trend will start.
The forecast area spent today in the wake of a cold front in a generally dry and more temperate airmass. Values range from mid 40s along the Pine Ridge to mid 50s central, which are warmer than MOS guidance but fall in the middle of the NBM envelope. The upper ridge builds over the central US with a forecast H5 height around 594dm, which equates to 99%ile of climo. The NBM envelope has trended warmer, now suggesting mid 100s for highs across the southwest each day this weekend.
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Above normal temperatures and gusty southerly winds will persist over the area through tonight, as the area remains in between a strengthening trough to the west and a broadening ridge to the east.
Seasonably warm into Wednesday as high pressure peaks over the region.