Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
724 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Weak high pressure will build into the region today and the first half of tonight with dry, seasonable weather along with variable cloud cover. A warm front will lift north into southern counties later tonight, and across the area Monday into Monday night with increasing chances of showers.
The surface map shows high pressure now off the southeast U. Deeper moisture was located along and south of a warm front from southeast TX into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low over central TX starting to lift northeast. Deeper layer moisture will quickly advect northeast today as the upper low/wave advances into AR and MS this afternoon. Afternoon highs should reach the lower 80s for most areas, and perhaps the middle 80s in northwest AL.
At the surface, low pressure is situated over Eastern CO with a cold front extending from southern MN into northern Nebraska. A few showers or storms will be possible over far southeast KS today as the upper low tracks over central/southern AR. Models remain consistent in developing storms along a southward surging cold front this evening over northwest KS. Cold front will continue pushing south on Mon with storms expected to develop along it during the late afternoon hours. By the end of the work week upper troughing is expected to settle over the Pacific Northwest with another upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, an expansive and highly amplified mid and upper level anticyclone stretching from the Southeast Gulf of Mexico poleward into the Eastern United States will slowly flatten on the northern half of the ridge axis.
248 AM PDT Sun May 2 2021 A deepening trough over the West, will keep strong and gusty winds over our mountains and deserts, and ensure another cool day.
Associated warm frontal boundary draped from the lower Atchafalaya Basin into east TX working onshore, with a quicker surge in SE TX. Ample PVA downstream of the trough in combination with the warm front is resulting in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Low level moist/warm advection should lead to a bit more destabilization as the warm front pushes in, and with modest low and deep layer shear, will continue to monitor the potential for a few strong to severe storms moving further into Sunday.
As the low pressure system associated with the stationary front tracks eastwards south of the area, expect the precipitation to move out along with it. Early morning temperatures will feel quite brisk, though should remain above freezing for locations along the highway 14 corridor. Elsewhere temperatures will be warmer getting closer to the 40 degree mark.
134 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 An upper level short wave trough will move southeastward over the Great Basin tonight and across the Rockies on Monday while modestly staying in phase with another trough in main jet stream moving across the southern tier of Canada. This combination will unlock the next cold front and decent amount of cold advection through the forecast area during the day Monday. Ahead of the cold front and with a continuation of height and surface pressure falls overnight, winds are likely to remain a bit breezy through the night limiting cooling overnight somewhat. Increasing mid level ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough combined with some frontogenetical forcing behind the cold front should be enough to generate at least scattered convection as early as late morning, potentially increasing through the afternoon.
Much cooler air filters in as well on northerly winds with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s expected. A short wave trough approaching in the slightly southwest flow aloft is expected to help convection to form along the front starting late this afternoon. Initial VFR conditions should go down to MVFR and IFR as the lower levels saturate from the rain and some cooler air moves in behind the front.
256 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 Some stronger thunderstorms are currently moving through southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska bringing gustier winds and small hail as a cold front is passing through. The time range with the highest impacts expected is tonight after sunset, especially for the I-80 Summit.
902 AM PDT Sun May 2 2021 A deepening trough over the West, will keep strong and gusty winds over our mountains and deserts, and ensure another cool day.
Clouds and winds should decrease Monday night, setting the stage for a cooler night. The amplified upper structure during the mid week period is likely to see the ridge begin to break down with the flow becoming flatter and more zonal heading toward the weekend. The most uncertainly in the late period forecast revolves around weakening of the protective ridge; delaying this would push back onset of pcpn. The temperature regime will remain below normal during the upcoming week, as 850 mb temps stick close to 0 C translating to overnight lows around freezing with daytime highs only in the 50s.
This decaying complex will leave an outflow boundary across southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma which will help enhance a cold front that is set to move into eastern Oklahoma Monday. The airmass across the area is expected to becoming increasingly unstable Monday afternoon/evening as surface dew points climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s in advance of the cold front. This could allow a few surface based storms to develop in the vicinity of the cold front.
A cold front will move into the Big Country Monday afternoon, then approach the northern Concho Valley by early evening. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s. An isolated shower and thunderstorm is possible across mainly northern Haskell and Throckmorton Counties along and just behind the front, as an upper level trough swings across the Southern Plains.
A cold front will move down into the area Monday. /issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast new Mexico in clear air mode on the backside of the trough, which is approaching the ArklaTex. Upstream, the next trough is digging out of the PacNW, and will dig to the Four Corners by around 12Z Monday, transitioning flow aloft from NW to SW. These winds will add a downslope warming component to afternoon temperatures, which should plateau in a respectable 90s or better for all but the higher elevations. The PacNW trough will move through the region Monday, driving a Pac front through the region and taking afternoon highs closer to normal.
409 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 MSAS analysis a surface pressure trough extending SW from Wisconsin into the Central Plains which marks the location of a surface warm front. Given that the fgen band placement tomorrow will be at least partially a function of how convection over the High Plains evolves tonight, confidence is on the low end. Ridging out west with broad troughing over the eastern U.
1157 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 A warm front draped across the Western Southern Tier of New York and Northeastern PA will stay relatively stationary for the rest of today before lifting slightly to the north tonight.
Overrunning cloud cover has kept temperatures across the far north relatively cool in the 60s, but ample sunshine in the area approximately around Highway 29 and southwards allowed temperatures to hit the lower 80s and start forming a cumulus field. Overnight, showers across the north will become more intermittent, as the main focal point for convection becomes the warm front, approximately between Wisconsin Rapids and Manitowoc.
252 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure centered off the coast will move farther out to sea overnight.
235 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 The upper low that brought much of the area very beneficial rain the last few days is on its way out soon to be replaced by another trough to our west. The strong winds will continue into this evening, especially in the higher terrain. The next trough will move across the area Monday shoving a Pacific front through.
Gusty northerly winds likely through Monday resulting in increased fire weather concerns and warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be warmer, humidities lower and gusty northerly winds will again increase fire weather concerns on Monday.
Right now, the highest concentration of radar echoes are back in West Tennessee. Expect increasing shower coverage this afternoon as the influences of the upper low currently centered over Eastern Texas creep into our area.
In its wake, low level moisture will continue to stream in from the south and southwest while an elevated mixed layer (EML) will advect in from the High Plains and result in steepening mid level lapse rates.
However, the potential for lightning will likely increase through the evening as the upper low gets closer to the area and destabilizes the airmass mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area. Much of the rainfall will subside by late tonight after the upper low moves northeastward from southwest AR into southeast MO.
The surface pressure gradient will remain tight through the day Monday before loosening Monday night as high pressure builds in, therefore expect gusty winds through the day Monday. The region will remain under upper level troughing or northwest flow through the end of the work week which will keep max temperatures well below average in the 50s to lower 60s.
155 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 The cold front that brought the cooler air continues to drag through the area. Scattered showers across the north will continue as the upper-level trough continues to support upward motion. With the cooler air in place, some snow flurries could mix in tonight in the basins. Snow showers will continue in the higher elevations through the period as upslope will support those showers.
154 PM PDT Sun May 2 2021 A departing upper level trough over the western part of the country will lead to breezy conditions with temperatures creeping closer to average. Warmer and drier weather is in store into the middle of the week as an area of high pressure to our southwest moves over the region. Slightly cooler weather with westerly breezes are possible as we round out the upcoming week.
After a cooler and showery day, temperatures rebound on Monday.
Ridging will maintain dry weather and above normal temperature this afternoon and into the evening. The trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Monday, continuing the showers.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue moving across the area producing hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall as the cold front passes through. The higher CAPE values (1000-1500 j/kg) look to be in NW Kansas with 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50 kts. Behind the cold front, the winds will shift to the north and remain sustained at 15-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through the overnight hours. As the upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves into the High Plains Monday evening/overnight, precipitation chances are expected to decrease from north/northwest to east. Monday night lows are expected to be fairly chilly in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
202 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 The surface cold front has passed through most of the forecast area early this afternoon, currently located from west of Winner to Valentine, and continuing to move southeastward. The moist airmass, combined with instability due to diurnal heating and lift enhanced by CAA aloft, as well as an upper trough crossing the region, has created scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms today.
258 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 With the cold front having made its way through the region today, earlier rain showers which moved from west to east this morning, now are moving from northwest to southeast.
Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge being shoved off over the Upper Mississippi Valley and a trough running south from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. Farther west offshore another ridge/trough couplet is setting up to replace the current one in a progressive pattern. Today through Tonight: As the Pac NW trough moves through the area today chances for isolated to scattered showers will occur across the region. These showers should clear out by tonight as cooler air moves in. Monday to Monday night: pattern will turn northwest as the ridge out west builds.
Hence the Flash Flood Watch for the lower Acadiana area has been cancelled.
Cloud cover along the Coastal Bend will keep temperatures slightly cooler with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Skies will briefly clear Monday night, except in the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend where an approaching cold front and onshore flow will keep clouds around.
/issued 759 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021/ Ridging aloft eases eastward across the state today as Atlantic high pressure continues to builds into the Gulf of Mexico, with an axis near the Florida Keys. Highs will reach the lower 90s inland with heat indices in the mid 90s. Atlantic high pressure builds in across the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days with a tightening gradient, resulting in winds reaching 15-20 knots at times.
While we remain north of the warm front overnight, we will greatly lack instability, meaning that most of what we see overnight will just be showers with very few thunderstorms. Can't completely rule them out as we may get some un-modeled elevated instability from WAA up and over the warm front. The warm front lifts north through Alabama into Tennessee Monday morning, bringing with it a much more unstable, warmer and more humid air mass. Due to the nature of the air mass, I'm more confident in thunderstorm development along the warm front around 5 AM Monday morning.
Cool northwest flow over the region with departing upper level trough.
322 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Humidity will begin to increase as high pressure moves farther offshore.
1140 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 A cold front was pushing through northwest Wyoming as of 10z. The I-80 summit will see the higher impacts after sunset this evening.
349 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 A warm front will lift north into southern counties later tonight, and across the area Monday into Monday night with increasing chances of showers.
Damaging Wind Threat Tonight in North-Central Kansas A linear complex of thunderstorms has already developed off the High Plains of northeastern Colorado, with perturbations associated with this system and synoptic height falls along a cold front currently situated along a line from NW Kansas to NE Nebraska resulting in convective initation along the front over the next few hours.
A cold front will enter the forecast area toward sunrise Monday with a shift to north winds and the likelihood of MVFR ceilings moving in behind it. The core of an upper level trough is expected to approach the Four Corners by Monday morning.
(This evening through Monday Night) Upper low over southeastern OK early this afternoon will move away from the fa the rest of this afternoon and tonight ending the chances for rain in eastern parts of the fa. However, the higher potential for showers/storms will likely be behind the front as the wave moves across the region.
344 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the southern plains and a trough in the western U. The southern plains trough heads northeast to the Ohio Valley by 12z Mon while the Canadian Rockies trough moves to the northern plains. Sprinkles and isolated showers will move out early this morning and then temporary dry weather into early afternoon before a warm front to the south causes some pops to break out later in the afternoon across the south and western cwa. One change made to this forecast is went a bit drier with the pops as the low level flow is with an easterly component and usually when that happens, dry air is hard to dislodge especially the further north you go. Ridging out west with broad troughing over the eastern U.
1113 AM MDT Sun May 2 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. At the surface, relatively light winds across our area early this morning with cold front pushing into eastern MT. As the cold front approaches by mid/late morning, showers will become more widespread across our western 2/3rds of zones, then spread through our far eastern zones this afternoon. Best chance for a few thunderstorms will generally be in the Black Hills and areas east/south where modest instability will reside along and ahead of the cold front.
Meanwhile, surface observations indicate a low between Yankton, SD and Norfolk with an associated quasi-stationary boundary stretching northeast and southwest from the low.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 81 68 81 63 / 70 70 40 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 78 67 80 62 / 70 70 40 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 78 66 79 61 / 70 70 50 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 77 62 81 60 / 60 70 40 70 80.
243 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 Satellite imagery shows broad troffing/cyclonic flow over the region, with strongest energy over the central Rockies and another wave dropping thru the northern Rockies.
136 PM PDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure will build over the west coast with warming temperatures through mid-week.
Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. At the surface, relatively light winds across our area early this morning with cold front pushing into eastern MT. As the cold front approaches by mid/late morning, showers will become more widespread across our western 2/3rds of zones, then spread through our far eastern zones this afternoon. Best chance for a few thunderstorms will generally be in the Black Hills and areas east/south where modest instability will reside along and ahead of the cold front.
By late tonight, a more widespread rain will likely spread into the southern part of the area as upper low over northeast Texas opens and lifts into the Ohio Valley.
High clouds continue to spill across the upper ridge over the area, the axis of which is tilted back over the Middle Ohio Valley. The trough is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Monday, continuing the showers.
156 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions today. An upper level low pressure system lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region Sunday night and Monday.
230 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 The leading surface cold front has passed through most of the forecast area early this afternoon, currently located from west of Winner to Valentine, and continuing to move southeastward. The secondary cold front, with stronger low level cold advection producing gusty northwest winds, currently extends from near Philip to Custer. The moist airmass, combined with instability due to diurnal heating and lift enhanced by CAA aloft, as well as an upper trough crossing the region, has created scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms today.
1151 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 A warm front draped across the Western Southern Tier of New York and Northeastern PA will stay relatively stationary for the rest of today before lifting slightly to the north tonight.
High pressure to the east Today, will slide to the southeast Tonight through Monday night. A 500mb ridge located just to the east Today, will move further to the east this period, yielding a flattening southwest to northeast pattern at that level. The low level flow will become more from the south Tonight, then from the southwest Monday into Monday night. Highs Monday in the lower 90s will be common.
These will continue to dissipate during the late afternoon and early evening hours as upper trough moves through the area. A warm and humid air mass will be in place behind the trough.
The frontal boundary continues to retreat northward away from the region while high pressure builds back in over South Florida. Monday will be another warm day with highs reaching the upper 80s along the Atlantic coast to the lower to mid 90s inland. For the first couple of days a 500mb ridge and a sfc Bermuda high remain in control. However, with high pressure aloft, convective intensity and coverage still looks to be limited.
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely by late Monday afternoon and Monday night as a cold front moves into the area Monday night, with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms over much of the area.
Mean layer ridging is in place over the region and looks to remain for a good portion of the week.
Southwesterly lower to mid level flow off the Sierra Madre and Serranias del Burro of Mexico has brought a drier airmass along with much warmer temperatures to South Central Texas. A cold front will move across our area Monday night. Breezy conditions are expected late Monday night as high pressure builds into our area.
An upper trof with a slight negative tilt centered near the ArkLaTex gradually weakens while lifting off into the northeastern states through Monday. Another upper trof meanwhile advances from the northwestern states and amplifies while beginning to move into the Plains. In addition, rainfall totals through tonight range from 1 to around 3 inches along and north of I-65, with the higher amounts over extreme southeast Mississippi and adjacent Alabama counties. Highs on Monday range from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
1201 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper low is currently moving northeast across central Texas. A band of wrap around showers has affected our eastern counties into the overnight hours, but these will exit the area prior to 6 AM as the low continues to move northeast. The low will open into a trough today, with the trough lifting northeast to the Mississippi Valley late this afternoon. With the departure of this system, drier and *much* warmer conditions are in store for our area today. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the mid 80s in our eastern counties, to the lower 90s across some of the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. With a significant change in airmasses, the 850mb temperatures will be 10-15 deg C warmer across our area today.
A weak cold front then approaches late Monday night, providing some minor relief from the heat.
Showers will overspread the area tonight as a weakening upper level wave pulls northeast out of the Red River Valley into the lower Ohio Valley. Mid and upper level ridging moves through the area in the wake of the upper wave midday into late afternoon Monday, which will likely bring at least occasional breaks in the precip as a moderate midlevel subsidence inversion develops.
1217 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 The cold front associated with the trough digging south is currently draped across central Wyoming. Showers will continue tonight and through Monday morning as the trough slowly drops south. The snow level may drop enough overnight to get some light snow across the lower basins as well, with little to no accumulations. Showers will decrease late Monday morning as the trough pulls away into the Great Plains.
The rain has been slow to develop across the middle of the state due to the presence of very dry air in the lower levels. A more well-defined height trough trails from southern Saskatchewan into northeast Montana. This trough could bring some additional, more widely scattered showers to parts of northwest and north central North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect another breezy and cooler day with highs in the 50s and northerly winds sustained around 15 to 25 mph.
Winds have remained on the higher side compared to initial thinking and this has helped to push temps a little higher. These winds have also allowed for decent mixing with dewpoints holding in the 50s, where a few of the hires models suggested dewpoints getting into the lower 60s.
in fact, most of Monday may be dry ahead of the cold front as a weak short wave ridge moves over Missouri. The low level convergence looks very weak along and ahead of the front.
125 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 A warm front draped across the Western Southern Tier of New York and Northeastern PA will stay relatively stationary for the rest of today before lifting slightly to the north tonight.
A weak warm front is lifting north across north Mississippi and east Arkansas.
Behind the cold front this evening, temperatures with overcast clouds and rain will keep us well below normal for Monday.