Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although temperatures for tomorrow will be warmer, highs will be well below average for this time of year.
The forecast min temps are in the mid to upper 30s which is on the lowest end of guidance.
Not as cold tonight, with light south winds holding most locations in the lower 40s at sunrise Thursday.
103 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure builds north of the region through early Thursday. as low pressure tracks across the southeast states. High pressure settles over the local area Thursday night. to the north, ~1032 mb high pressure was noted from the upper midwest down into the lower Great Lakes and the OH valley. Upper level trough to settle over the region Fri which may result in spotty pcpn and VRB clouds.
However, with a strong area of high pressure building in from the north, think the dry air mass and subsidence will generally win out. The end result will be a clearing sky through the night, with fairly cool temperatures in the low to mid 40s in most locations. The aformentioned high pressure system will slowly build into the Tennessee Valley from the northwest on Thursday. However, northerly flow will help to reinforce this cool air mass and as a result, temperatures will continue to remain below normal for mid-May with highs in the lower 70s in most locations (about 10 degrees below our seasonable norms). A gradual warm up will take place this weekend as the center of the ridge slides from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas.
427 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by late week. Expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night. High pressure remains largely in control through the period, continuing the pattern of mostly dry weather.
This will keep temperatures below seasonal normals again with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Canadian high pressure currently over Wisconsin will slowly meander southward over the next 24 hours. Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, with highs generally climbing into the low to mid 60s.
321 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Persistent area of high pressure fixated beneath a gradually building upper height field ensures generally benign weather conditions through the remainder of the work week.
This flow will slowly transition to slightly northwesterly as a deeper trough over the great lakes slowly translates east. With low-level moisture still filtering out Tonight, lows will still remain in the low 60s near the coast and mid to upper 50s well inland.
221 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 /Updated at 1206 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ Cooler and drier air continues to push southward early this afternoon, as the old frontal boundary pushes back to the south.
855 AM PDT Wed May 12 2021 Weak high pressure aloft will bring seasonal May Gray weather west of the mountains through Thursday.
/TW/ The Lower Mississippi Valley remains situated beneath predominately zonal flow aloft as a weak trough axis gradually shifts into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary has finally cleared the area and is located along the Gulf Coast. To the N, drier air & high pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly sag to the S. With widespread cloudiness & quite a bit cooling in the low- levels, highs will only top out in the mid 60s N to mid 70s S, which is about 10-15 degrees below normal. Tonight: As the synoptic trough axis digs down through the mid-upper MS Valley, high pressure/subsidence & drier air will build in from the N. Lows will fall below normal, into the upper 40s in the cooler areas of the Golden Triangle while low-mid 50s elsewhere.
For Thursday, a trough/weak front will move out of eastern Colorado and reside near the Kansas border by 21z in response to a weak impulse embedded in the northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will be on the increase over the next couple of days under the influence of high pressure. By this weekend, we will start to see breezy conditions, cooler temperatures and isolated showers and thunderstorms as a storm system moves inland. Through Thursday night Temperatures are currently up about 6-8 degrees over yesterday as a broad ridge of high pressure sets up over the area.
Cool high pressure is settling over the MS/OH valleys with brisk NE winds across the Mid-South and temps only in the 60s to around 70.
340 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 The rain is moving out as the high pressure wedge has setup behind it. The easterly flow is expected to continue through Thursday but the low ceilings will lift and scatter out leaving partly cloudy conditions for Thu. The biggest issue with the wedge building in is the cooler airmass thats moving into the area with it.
224 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 209 PM CDT High pressure continues to control our weather with mostly sunny skies. Low dewpoints in the low 30s / upper 20s will allow temperatures to drop once again, creating another round of frost, limited to low-lying areas and river valleys in rural regions. With the high to our east/southeast, winds will become southerly overnight, allowing weak warm-air advection for a short amount of time, especially in my western counties, so frost will most likely be sandwiched between I- 39 and the City of Chicago and points southeast into northwest Indiana.
With CAPE values up to 500 j/kg and freezing levels near 8000 feet, the stronger storms could produce some small hail.
212 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Northwest flow aloft will be dominating the FA today through tomorrow night as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest.
Tonight and Thursday High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the western Great Lakes through Thursday. Minor differences include temperatures and dew points a few degree warmer, relative humidity slightly higher (but still only 20-25 percent in the sandy soil regions), and perhaps a little more cumulus cloud development.
With these unseasonably cold temperatures there may also be some steam fog in the river valleys late tonight and early Thursday morning with the cold air over the warmer water. It will be slightly warmer Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, albeit still below normal.
346 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off to the northwest of the area along with low pressure to our south continuing to support chilly northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph for eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Meanwhile, dewpoints are in the low 30s for most. They all depict troughing slowly sinking south through the Appalachians as it departs the area late in the period. Look for mostly clear skies and lighter winds tonight to set up a decent ridge to valley temperature split. Northerly flow will begin the period as an upper level low resides over Virginia Beach and the Chesapeake Bay.
However, out there, humdities will likely start to nudge up during the afternoon as cloud cover increases as the trough over the Dakotas continues to move east. Which means at this point Red Flag conditions don't look to happen as where we'll have the best winds will coincide with the highest humidities, while the lowest humidities will line up with the lightest winds.
244 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 209 PM CDT High pressure continues to control our weather with mostly sunny skies. Low dewpoints in the low 30s / upper 20s will allow temperatures to drop once again, creating another round of frost, limited to low-lying areas and river valleys in rural regions. With the high to our east/southeast, winds will become southerly overnight, allowing weak warm-air advection for a short amount of time, especially in my western counties, so frost will most likely be sandwiched between I- 39 and the City of Chicago and points southeast into northwest Indiana.
As the cold front continues to move out of our region, cool and dry air will filter in from the north. We'll be on the back edge of an upper-level trough as high pressure begins to move into the region. This will result in a high temperature of 68 degrees for Tallahassee, which is just about 20 degrees below normal! Areas away from the Gulf Coast are expected to be in the same position, areas along the coast are expected to see high temps in the low to mid 70s.
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and Thursday.
High pressure centered over northern Illinois early this morning will drift toward Ohio through tonight.
By the day on Thursday weak ridging will be building over South Texas. Afternoon highs on Thursday will warm into the low 70s with lows tomorrow night dropping back down to around 60 degrees.
This should pave the way for a slight reprieve from the heat and humidity of late as north to northeasterly winds provide an influx of cooler and drier air to the region.
/Issued 212 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ Northwest flow aloft will be dominating the FA today through tomorrow night as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest.
716 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure will provide quiet conditions with sct-bkn high based diurnal cumulus fading around sunset and generally clear skies into Thursday. Persistent area of high pressure fixated beneath a gradually building upper height field ensures generally benign weather conditions through the remainder of the work week.
614 PM MDT Wed May 12 2021 19z surface analysis had trough from western ND to the Black Hills to central CO and another trough from eastern MT into central WY. Water vapour had upper trough from southern SK into far eastern WY.
929 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Large area of strong/cold high pressure remains centered over much of the central US. Temps will again fall to or below freezing overnight. High pressure surface and aloft will predominate through the overnight hours. Primary Forecast Concerns: Low temperatures once again will be the main concern with a good radiational cooling set up in place (clear skies/light winds/very dry air mass) though temperatures are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer this afternoon than at this point yesterday. with interior areas away from the lakes standing the best chance of seeing sub-freezing temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft through Thursday is expected to lead to mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Forecast highs will be well into the 60s to near 70, except cooler near the lakeshores due to likely afternoon lake breezes.
Attention then turns to the W/NW where sfc based convection is expected to develop along weak warm front and trailing trough axis, mostly likely across the Sandhills in the 21-23Z time frame. Downdraft temps are forecast to be quite cool in the low 50s, owing to dry airmass. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep southerly winds over the area through the TAF period.
Only a few showers, near the lower Atchafalaya Basin and over the coastal waters, that should be ending overnight. At the surface, there is a high pressure over the midwest that is building in.
/Issued 340 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021/ The rain is moving out as the high pressure wedge has setup behind it. The easterly flow is expected to continue through Thursday but the low ceilings will lift and scatter out leaving partly cloudy conditions for Thu. The biggest issue with the wedge building in is the cooler airmass thats moving into the area with it.
1045 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Large area of strong/cold high pressure remains centered over much of the central US. Temps will again fall to or below freezing overnight. High pressure surface and aloft will predominate through the overnight hours. Primary Forecast Concerns: Low temperatures once again will be the main concern with a good radiational cooling set up in place (clear skies/light winds/very dry air mass) though temperatures are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer this afternoon than at this point yesterday. with interior areas away from the lakes standing the best chance of seeing sub-freezing temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft through Thursday is expected to lead to mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Forecast highs will be well into the 60s to near 70, except cooler near the lakeshores due to likely afternoon lake breezes.
Showers and thunderstorms are firing along a surface boundary with the added forcing from a mid and upper level trough moving over the same area.
819 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 As high pressure drifts across the Midwest the next couple days, our weather will remain on the tranquil side.
759 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure slowly builds closer to the region overnight, as low pressure tracks across the southeast states. The high will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. To the north, ~1032 mb high pressure was noted from the upper midwest down into the lower Great Lakes and the OH valley. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the Mid- Atlantic Thu into Thu night.
Dry conditions are expected to continue for several days with temperatures trending warmer. Cool high pressure is settling over the MS/OH valleys with brisk NE winds across the Mid-South and temps only in the 60s to around 70.
1023 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by late week. Expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night. Mostly sunny skies on Thursday, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. High pressure remains largely in control through the period, continuing the pattern of mostly dry weather.
1030 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Currently - The western end of the Atlantic ridge is getting hammered daily by daytime heating over Florida as a mid latitude low pushes off the northeast Atlantic Coast. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
734 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure centered over the Midwest this afternoon will drift towards Ohio tonight.
Expect the low clouds to persist through 14-15Z on Thursday at HBG/PIB, while the remaining sites will remain VFR through the period. /15/ Tonight and tomorrow: An upper trough axis will slide through the Mississippi Valley tonight and into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. As such, overnight lows will range from the low to upper 50s. A warming trend will be underway tomorrow with the return of sunshine which will support afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.
North-northeast winds will increase to around 20 knots at ALI/CRP/VCT this evening through ~06Z as a surge of high pressure moves through the region. With cloud cover remaining in place overnight, MinT values will be on the mild side with lows ranging from the low-to-upper 60s. As drier air pushes in on Thursday, should see enough breaks in the clouds to increase temperatures a bit more than today's with highs reaching the upper 70s and a few western locations reaching the low 80s.
High pressure is filling in behind a recent cold front. High pressure will start to shift east late Thursday and winds will veer toward northeast.
608 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure centered over the Midwest this afternoon will drift towards Ohio tonight.
Expect light northwest flow through tomorrow as the predominant storm track remains farther north over the northern Rockies and a low-amplitude ridge builds into the area. Warming mid-level temps and height rises tomorrow will result in a warmer afternoon, with highs topping out 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Low pressure approaches the region for the start of the new work week.
Minimum temperatures will moderate from last night over the plains and eastern Front Range as the low level cold air mass has moved east of the area.
With high pressure located over northern Indiana, skies are clear across our CWA and in the low/mid 50s. While winds are light expect winds to be around 2 - 4 Kts and with Td in the low/mid 30s while it will be chilly, don't anticipate frost in the morning. A cool northeasterly flow was noted across the region and temperatures were generally in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. In the near term, no significant weather is expected and highs should top out in the lower 60s in the next hour or so. For the overnight period, Canadian high pressure is forecast to be in place across northern IL this evening and into the overnight period. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s for most spots. Temperatures are expected to moderate slightly with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Instead, a broad surface wave develops east of Florida, increasing the pressure gradient, as a backdoor cold front pushes south into our area. The onshore flow will also moderate temperatures, as highs only reach the low 80s, upper 70s along Volusia coast. This is in response to a developing broad surface wave of low pressure.
729 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature tonight. This will make favorable conditions for patchy frost, mainly in central Ohio and affecting typical cooler spots.
612 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 209 PM CDT High pressure continues to control our weather with mostly sunny skies. Low dewpoints in the low 30s / upper 20s will allow temperatures to drop once again, creating another round of frost, limited to low-lying areas and river valleys in rural regions. With the high to our east/southeast, winds will become southerly overnight, allowing weak warm-air advection for a short amount of time, especially in my western counties, so frost will most likely be sandwiched between I- 39 and the City of Chicago and points southeast into northwest Indiana.
High pressure sits across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and western Michigan. Temperatures at 2 PM were near 60 degrees to the lower 60s. High pressure will prevail through the day on Thursday. Diurnally driven clouds will dissipate early this evening with another night under high pressure and good radiational cooling.
755 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and lingering low-level moisture will maintain wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
Overall, expect the low temperatures to be warmest (upper 40s/lower 50s) near and just east of where this boundary ends up around daybreak. The aformentioned high pressure system will slowly build into the Tennessee Valley from the northwest on Thursday. However, northerly flow will help to reinforce this cool air mass and as a result, temperatures will continue to remain below normal for mid-May with highs in the lower 70s in most locations (about 10 degrees below our seasonable norms). A gradual warm up will take place this weekend as the center of the ridge slides from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas.
716 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end, as temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid and upper 60s for most areas by late week. Otherwise, expansive high pressure centered over Wisconsin will only drift a few hundred miles southeast through Thursday night. High pressure remains largely in control through the period, continuing the pattern of mostly dry weather.
/issued 245 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ WV imagery shows a weak upper ridge over the southwest CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW to zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a persistent NE flow has kept stratus banked up against the higher terrain. Thursday, temperatures finally begin heading toward respectable as the ridge builds in from the west.
610 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure ridging in from the north and lingering low-level moisture will maintain wedge conditions across the region into Thursday.
Shower activity is almost completely dissipated over southwest ND, but with the support of the mid-upper level trough, the shower activity may linger into the late evening or early overnight hours. Otherwise expect another quiet remainder of the night with cool temperatures in the lower 3s southwest to lower 40s east. Showers and thunderstorms are firing along a surface boundary with the added forcing from a mid and upper level trough moving over the same area.
1026 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature for the next few days with generally clear skies and a slow warming trend to temperatures.
Lows will fall into the 40s for everyone, which will be a little cooler than last night and well below normal for this time of year.
/15/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: An upper trough axis will slide through the Mississippi Valley tonight and into the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. As such, overnight lows will range from the low to upper 50s. A warming trend will be underway tomorrow with the return of sunshine which will support afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.
619 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 As high pressure drifts across the Midwest the next couple days, our weather will remain on the tranquil side.
Temperatures will be well above normal today and Friday as high pressure builds in. Over the weekend, expect breezy conditions, cooler temperatures, and isolated showers and thunderstorms as a storm system moves inland. High pressure moving overhead will push temperatures up a couple more degrees today, but Heat Risk values remain in the low to moderate category. As the high slowly moves east tomorrow and the trough which will be the main player over the weekend starts digging down the West Coast, heights will fall while winds and ventilation increase.
345 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Quiet weather this morning with weak surface flow and a mid level trough axis cutting across central North Dakota. A few lingering showers tied to the trough are persisting mainly over Renville County. As the trough axis moves east today, a 700 mb low is forecast to cut off and stall over central and eastern North Dakota, with trailing northwest flow aloft containing shear vorticity. Lows tonight are finally expected to remain above freezing across the entire area, though it could be a close call for the typical cold spots across central and southwest North Dakota.
Weak upper trough will slowly meander eastward today, with an associated weak surface boundary across eastern North Dakota this afternoon. Any thunder has the potential for gusts up 40-50 mph given the high mixed layers, but the potential for severe storms is limited given weak instability and deep layer shear. Overnight lows remain above freezing.
353 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 A cold front will cross the region today.
205 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 High pressure will gradually become centered over the local area into the weekend. Sfc hi pres from the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley gradually builds into the mid-Atlantic region today. OP models showing a weakening trough aloft diving across the region Fri. A weak upper level trough will bring a slight chc of SHRA Fri afternoon/evening. A warm front is forecast to move through the FA late in the upcoming weekend. This afternoon, weak low pressure is located just off the Carolina's, meanwhile strong high pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest. Winds and seas will diminish through this evening with high pressure building across the region. After tonight, fairly benign marine conditions are expected tonight into the weekend with high pressure remaining in control of the local weather pattern.
Skies will clear this evening allowing overnight temperatures to bottom out into the lower 40s.
Surface winds turn more southerly on Friday as high pressure moves further into the Ohio Valley.
Otherwise, southerly low level return flow will develop in the wake of the departing ridge with modest northwesterly flow aloft.
This will help to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the high country.