Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A front was progressing southwest across the high plains early this evening. Otherwise, a somewhat cooler day is in store for areas east of the Laramie Range with gusty southeast winds especially in the afternoon. Cold front sagging into the area from the north this evening. This is in response to weak upper level ridging across the High Plains.
With more in the way of cloud cover and precipitation across the western portions of the region expect temperatures to be a little cooler across western portions of the region with highs in the middle 80s and temperatures are expected to be around 90 degrees across the east. A cold front will push south of the area through Tuesday night and this should lead to a decreasing chance of showers and thunderstorms from north to south through the night. This will help drag a series of weak mid level short waves east across the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week, before perhaps carving out a bit more of an upper level trough heading into this weekend.
244 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The work week will begin with a much drier and cooler airmass in place as dew points continue to plummet overnight tonight, with dewpoints in far western North Dakota beginning to fall into the mid to lower 30s as of 07Z.
This system will continue to move east and we will get a break from storms before a cold front presently in over far northwestern Minnesota moves through tonight into tomorrow morning. Monday, the cold front should exit eastern Wisconsin by mid morning. A high pressure associated with the back end of an upper level trough will approach from the Central Plains and keep us dry, cooler, and pleasant for Monday into Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s.
304 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 One more dry day is forecast under high pressure, with temperatures near or just above 90 in many areas. The mixing will also bring down dry air as well, helping to keep dewpoints restrained mainly to the lower 60s and keeping heat indices suppressed. Weak mid-level troughing will drop into the Ohio Valley later Monday night and on Tuesday.
A broad upper-level ridge extends from the Desert Southwest, across the Lower MS Valley, to the Bahamas. Generally zonal flow aloft is observed north of the front with a strong trough tracking eastward across Canada's Prairie Provinces. The subtropical ridge will be the key player again today, though geopotential heights are progged to drop by 10 meters or so from yesterday afternoon (to ~593 dam).
Meanwhile, the weak warm frontal boundary/moisture gradient is making itself known by new showers developing from central IN south to just west of HNB this hour. The broader pattern through the medium range will feature upper ridge over the southern US and twin upper lows spinning across Canada. A weak sfc cold front will slowly push south through central IL and IN on Tuesday. Sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will be present each day near and south of the wavy ill-defined front.
237 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure settles into the area today and then lingers nearby through midweek. This area of high pressure is expected to settle over the TN valley today. High temps this afternoon in the lower 90s for most, with upper 80s close to the coast.
Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s across the region with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, supporting heat index readings above 100 across much of the region. Storms may initially struggle to get going given very warm temperatures in the low levels, but storms will likely increase in coverage as deeper forcing arrives into the area late this afternoon, pushing storms south through the region through the evening.
Another hot, humid day with scattered to numerous afternoon showers/t-storms with sea breezes beneath upper ridge.
Instead, the upper ridge that is controlling our weather will become centered near El Paso through the day today, resulting in weak northwesterly flow developing over West Texas. A subtle disturbance currently traversing the San Juan Mountains of Colorado will translate slowly eastward, emerging across the High Plains around peak heating. The amplified ridging pattern will persist from midweek on through the forecast period, though the center will migrate farther west by the end of the week and possibly produce a slightly cooler pattern for the end of the weekend with stronger northwest flow setting in.
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. Slightly warmer afternoon temperatures are expected for Monday, along with a reflection on apparent temperatures.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s across the area with the immediate coastal area in the low 80s. Mid/upper level ridging, centered off to our west, will continue to be the state's main weather player for this week.
A cold front will push south of the area through Tuesday night and this should lead to a decreasing chance of showers and thunderstorms from north to south through the night. This will help drag a series of weak mid level short waves east across the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week, before perhaps carving out a bit more of an upper level trough heading into this weekend.
633 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 A cold front was moving through the eastern edge of northeast Minnesota at 2 AM and extended from Moose Lake through Duluth to the northwest corner of Cook County. A warm front was located from northwest Pine county east northeast through northwest Wisconsin. Showers and a few thunderstorms were percolating along and behind the cold front. High pressure will be centered over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa tonight. Surface ridging will cover the region Tuesday night as the aforementioned high pressure drifts to eastern Wisconsin.
A weak cold front is also forecast to slowly move southward across the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon and tonight. /Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ For today and tonight, a weak cold front will slide slowly south and settle across the northern Texas Panhandle. A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will also prevail.
916 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Another day with very light winds throughout the column under weak high pressure. Expecting similar conditions to yesterday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s, heat indices around 105, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening forming along sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Winds and seas are light across the coastal waters with weak high pressure in place. A little stronger ridging then establishes more E/SE flow over the waters for the end of the week, with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore each day.
1032 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Currently - Surface ridging extends across Florida resulting in light to gentle east breeze across the Keys and surrounding waters. The lower to mid level ridge also extends across Florida. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather keeping winds light to gentle out of the east. In addition, guidance remains consistent that the lower level flow will back some this afternoon opening the door to the development of island cloud lines. A ridge across Florida will provide light to gentle east breezes across Keys waters this afternoon.
Convective debris emanating off of the Sierra Nevada Mountains was spreading westward across SRN Lake and Mendocino counties in response to the low. Short term model guidance indicates that a narrow zone of southerly winds will develop northward from the low in the vicinity of Cape Mendocino and then farther north along the remainder of the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts.
655 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Early morning radar imagery showed a cluster of severe storms moving through the Twin Cities area, just ahead of a southwest to northeast oriented surface cold front. Any precip should exit by late afternoon/early evening with high pressure building in behind the front.
/issued 459 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas will continue to be under the influence of a broad 500mb ridge of high pressure, which stretches across much of the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. The center of the high across West Texas will build through the short term period, resulting in strong subsidence across the state. A weak inverted trough well to our south near Tampico, Mexico will keep more notable rain chances away from the CWA for the time being.
Have a cold front laying roughly along a line from North Platte.
922 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 One more dry day is forecast under high pressure, with temperatures near or just above 90 in many areas. Weak mid-level troughing will drop into the Ohio Valley later Monday night and on Tuesday.
655 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Warmer and increasingly humid air will spread across the area through the first half of this work week with dangerous heat indices possible at some locations.
412 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Nrn stream upper wave pushing a cold front southward through the plains this morning, with wind shift roughly along the Arkansas River as of 10z. Max temps today will run some 5-8f cooler than yesterday over the eastern mountains and plains, though that still means mid-90s for usual warm spots along the lower Ark Valley.
A broad surface trof settles over the area which should keep wind speeds in check, but southwest wind direction will bring drier air and hot temperatures back to the area, with highs in the mid 90s. BT Upper troughing and west to southwest flow aloft is the dominate weather pattern for the rest of the week, slowly bringing cooler temperatures to the area, with highs in the low to mid 80s by the weekend. However, persist downslope flow and a couple relatively dry cold fronts will keep conditions dry across the area, including in SE Montana.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Deep South Texas will continue to be under the influence of a broad 500mb ridge of high pressure, which stretches across much of the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest. The center of the high across West Texas will build through the short term period, resulting in strong subsidence across the state. A weak inverted trough well to our south near Tampico, Mexico will keep more notable rain chances away from the CWA for the time being.
At the surface, high pressure to the east is helping steer southerly flow across the Quad State region.
Otherwise high pressure and dry air will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s in places this morning. As the h500 trough over Canada moves northeast out of the picture on Tuesday, rising h500 heights will continue to suppress convection with mainly sunny skies.
Normal temperatures for the second week of August range from the mid and upper 80s across the valleys of western Montana to around 90 to mid 90s in the lower valleys of central Idaho.
642 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure settles into the area today and then lingers nearby through midweek. This area of high pressure is expected to settle over the TN valley today. High temps this afternoon in the lower 90s for most, with upper 80s close to the coast.
High pressure remains over the region, centered over the Arizona/New Mexican border with Mexico. Warm and dry conditions look to continue, although there is a slight chance of afternoon showers or maybe a storm over the higher terrain.
404 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 For today and tonight, a weak cold front will slide slowly south and settle across the northern Texas Panhandle. A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will also prevail.
A subtropical jet extending from Southern California across the Colorado Rockies will exist Tuesday, and this will actually allow for some decent deep layer shear for more organized thunderstorm activity along the leeside trough late Tuesday/Tuesday evening.
The work week will begin with a much drier and cooler airmass in place as dew points continue to plummet overnight tonight, with dewpoints in far western North Dakota beginning to fall into the mid to lower 30s as of 07Z.
With an area of high pressure building over southern New Mexico, today will mark the beginning of a mostly dry and hot week.
Isolated t-storms are possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra today and Tuesday.
622 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Morning lows in the low and mid 70s. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda ridge offshore and weak sfc-700mb low over the area through the period. Mid level trough across the lower Mississippi Valley.
502 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northern Manitoba with broad troughing extending into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front was dropping from northeast MN into northwest WI. Clearing skies and diminishing winds with much drier air moving in will allow temps to drop into the lower 50s inland while readings remain closer to 60 near the Great Lakes.
757 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda ridge offshore and weak sfc-700mb low over the area through the period. Mid level trough across the lower Mississippi Valley.
/issued 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ Today the primary instability axis will extend from SE NM newd into TX Panhandle along and just e of the lee trof. The center of the subtropical anticyclone will be just w of ELP resulting in a nw mid-level steering component across the aforementioned instability axis. More of the same for Tue, except SB instability axis and lee trof will not be as sharp and coverage of SHRA/TSRA will be less. The subtropical anticyclone will be far enough removed to the w-nw Sun-Mon that temps will be able to cool of a few degrees, but still above normal.
High pressure will push our above average heat to near record levels the second half of the week. The high pressure ridge across southern tier states continues to be far enough west to bring an unfavorable flow for importing deep moisture into the region. The good news is that there's a surge pushing up the Gulf of California this morning, and should push into the lower deserts later today and tonight. As this happens though, the western flank of the ridge will strengthen with a new high center consolidating over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico the second half of the week.
458 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and east of the area, with high pressure over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure west of Hudson Bay, with ridging along the west coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the plains, 70s over the Black Hills. Winds will turn south to southeast during the day as high pressure gradually slides east of the region.
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 High pressure settles into the area today and then lingers nearby through midweek.
Continue to be influenced by weak high pressure ridging across central FL.
537 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 One more dry day is forecast under high pressure, with temperatures near or just above 90 in many areas. The mixing will also bring down dry air as well, helping to keep dewpoints restrained mainly to the lower 60s and keeping heat indices suppressed. Weak mid-level troughing will drop into the Ohio Valley later Monday night and on Tuesday.
529 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Under mostly clear skies and east winds near 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. With high pressure remaining north of our area, intermittent pockets of somewhat higher moisture along with the typical mesoscale sources will prompt climo rain chances for the most part through the period.
750 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northern Manitoba with broad troughing extending into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front was dropping from northeast MN into northwest WI. Clearing skies and diminishing winds with much drier air moving in will allow temps to drop into the lower 50s inland while readings remain closer to 60 near the Great Lakes.
Expect afternoon highs to reach the lower and middle 80s for the plateau and mid 90s along the river.
High temperatures will moderate a couple degrees tomorrow as upper troughing begins to influence the area.
143 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northern Manitoba with broad troughing extending into the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front was dropping from northeast MN into northwest WI. Clearing skies and diminishing winds with much drier air moving in will allow temps to drop into the lower 50s inland while readings remain closer to 60 near the Great Lakes.
325 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Warmer and increasingly humid air will persist through Tuesday. A cold front slowly approaches through Tuesday, allowing a few showers and thunderstorms to develop.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered generally over far western Texas. High pressure at the surface is centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA are from the south to southeast. Subsidence under the Ridge will keep rain out of most areas.
Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday with the passage of an upper level disturbance and a weak cold front crossing the region late afternoon and into the evening. The main belt of westerlies will remain to our north with ridging across the southeast CONUS.
Severe is certainly a concern given the high degree of instability, favorable mid level drier air, decent lapse rates and overall momentum. Models show an upper level trof over our region through the week.
Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and tonight with very unstable conditions ahead of an approaching cold front currently extending from eastern WI southwest through northwestern MO. High temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday and close to seasonal normals.
Today and Tomorrow: Most places in the forecast area felt the cold front move through this morning as 40 to 50 mph gusts were observed at several stations, with a peak gust of 77 mph near Bennington. If you missed the winds, hopefully you're liking the 10 degree cooler temperatures and lower dew points.
357 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Pleasant weather is expected throughout the short term as high pressure remains over the Northland with zonal flow in the upper levels. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Skies tomorrow will be mostly clear, with high temps in the low 80s. These gusty winds are a result of a pressure gradient between high pressure over southern MN and low pressure over northern Ontario.
835 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Building high pressure over the Southwest will bring warmer weather this week and eventually restrict any nocturnal marine clouds and fog to coastal areas and offshore.
While temperatures remain near average, a jet streak aloft will descend from north of the border as an upper level closed system of low pressure spins near the British Columbia-Alberta border. Later on Tuesday, a dry cold front associated with the Canadian low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies.
Throughout the forecast period, the subtropical ridge will remain stretched out across the central and southern CONUS while a seasonably strong band of westerlies persists across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The ideal situation for that to happen would be if the storms were moving faster, but given the high lake/bay levels it doesn't take much displacement of water to result in flooding of low areas near the shoreline. Quiet weather is expected overnight and Tuesday as a weak anticyclone slowly shifts into the region. for 18Z TAF Issuance A cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms.
In wake of short term storms this evening little to discuss as sfc ridging builds across the lakes and pushes active frontal zone south of the OH river.
142 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through most of the week. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda ridge offshore.
Temperatures had warmed to 82-85 southwest, while cooler in the mid 70s northeast. Recycling of the cooler airmass from today will limit highs to the mid 80s east, while the eastern panhandle far southwest to reach near 90. With a zonal flow aloft, and ample low level moisture, strong heating into the lower 90s across the western panhandle will cause destabilization as a weak disturbance moves in.
243 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Current radar is showing scattered storms developing in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. An upper high to our west will expand east across much of Texas the first half of this week reducing rain chances and sending temperatures to near advisory levels with highs exceeding 100 degrees in many locations and 105 along the Pecos River. The upper high then erodes and retreats back to the west the latter half of the week to the point where we may see a weak cold front over the weekend.
The lack of cloud cover has allowed afternoon temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s at nearly all sites, but slightly lower dewpoints have kept afternoon heat index values generally in the 100 to 105 range. We should see a return to scattered convection tomorrow as the weakness/troughiness returns, though the highest chances hold off until the second half of the work week. Have continued to carry temperatures on the higher end of the guidance envelope as there should be plenty of time to heat up before afternoon convection starts cooling things off.
A fairly wide swath of drier air has begun riding westward on the southern periphery of the lower level ridge and through our area. Forecast - The ridge will remain across the peninsula through the next couple of days. From mid week through the remainder of the week, the ridge will lift northward into north Florida and the southeastern United States as an area of low pressure in the southeast lifts out. A ridge across Florida will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes on Keys waters over the next couple of days.
The higher-end damage may be more pronounced across northern Illinois stretching over to northern IN. You do not want to be on the beach or in the water when this happens! -- Quieter Weather Until This Weekend -- We should be in a quiet pattern until this weekend, when a cold front may be approaching by late in the period and warm, humid air ahead of it may help produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
By this time, the upper trough will move across northern Oklahoma and keep scattered showers and clouds around east of I-35 into Tuesday afternoon.
1040 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and east of the area, with high pressure over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure west of Hudson Bay, with ridging along the west coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the plains, 70s over the Black Hills. Winds will turn south to southeast during the day as high pressure gradually slides east of the region.
208 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Flat ridging exists over the region today bringing clear/dry conditions. Temps Tuesday will jump to the low-mid 90s most places. a result of warm advection in advance of a deepening trof along the BC coast. JKL Upper troughing is still the main story into the weekend.
Sunny and a little warmer today under dry westerly flow aloft. Cooler mid-week. Hottest day Monday with upper ridge in the Great Basin at greatest amplitude.