Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The models agree well with upper level ridging building into the region along with 2 to 3 standard deviation above normal 925/850mb air moving in. There may be some high level cirrus clouds streaming over the region but we should have no problem making it into the lower 70s out west.
322 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Cold front extending from near Springfield Missouri northeast into Central Illinois will push through the area by early evening. Some guidance members spit out a bit of precip behind the front as a vortmax which is currently over northern Missouri shifts south toward the base of the mid-upper level trof. The period begins with a trough over the eastern CONUS with a rex block over the the western two thirds of the CONUS.
105 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 The upper ridge remains over the west this morning while a low over OK has a trough extending back to the southwest. This low is expected to retrograde to the SW and become cut off tomorrow near ELP. This scenario will create the potential for additional rainfall this week before the low is eventually swept east over the weekend. will have noticeably cooler temperatures this afternoon.
The high-res models are doing a good job of handling the areas of precip and do indicate a break in the steady light precip for the late afternoon/early evening hours before the post-frontal area of rainfall moves in. Despite the evening cold front passage, clouds and rain should hold low temps tonight in the 41-46 degree range. Low clouds should slowly clear the area from west to east for Wed with highs dependent on exactly how long the low clouds linger. For now went with greater cloud cover and high temps in the lower 50s east of I-65.
Otherwise, a lee side trof is forming off of the Rocky Mountain front bringing warmer temperatures into the area this afternoon and even warmer tomorrow.
This is most likely to occur across the western zones, where some mid 20s are likely in the lowest Arkansas valley locations. A drier pattern will set up and persist through the end of the week as medium range models indicate upper level ridging spreading slowly eastward across the Western High Plains and into the Central Plains during the period. A lack of moisture in the lower/mid levels and the upper ridge axis moving into the high plains of western Kansas will hinder precip chances through the end of the week. This will do very little to erode the cooler air mass across the high plains keeping high temperatures down in the 60s(F) Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure over the Central Plains will overspread the region tonight as the upper trough which brought light rain last night and this morning slides by to the southeast. Wouldn't be surprised if a few local spots even flirted with the freezing mark in far northwest MO.
1022 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Upper-level trough across Oklahoma and Texas contributing to extensive cloud-cover across the region. Trough to ease southeast today allowing for the possibility of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms areawide.
A weak cold front will continue to push out of the area as high pressure will build over New Mexico through the weekend. Temperatures over most of the region will fall to near to below normal as cooler and drier air moves into the state.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): A cold front is pushing through the CWA this afternoon and should be south of the area as well as offshore this evening. The GFS signals a touch of energy moving out of the upper low and over the Mexican mountains Wednesday night, forcing the retention of isolated showers over the Upper Valley.
Minimum temperatures still might be too warm in some locations, but generally went cooler than the MAV for much of the forecast area.
Low clouds have hung on across all but the northwestern one-third of the forecast resulting in temperatures in the low 60s in the full sun versus the upper 50s under the clouds.
Main difference to sensible weather in the models is how much cool air filters into the area on area late this week with GFS being cooler than the ECMWF, so will split the difference on highs through this period.
255 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Quiet weather ahead tonight into Wednesday as high pressure shifts south of the area, then southerly winds will develop through Wednesday morning. Expect the lowest spots in northwest Iowa to fall to 25 to 30 degrees while temperatures will bottom out from about 30 to 35 in central SD where winds will turn to the south around midnight.
1145 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 A cold front is making its way through Central Illinois this morning, with some precip and low clouds out ahead of the boundary. Temperatures cooler behind the boundary by a few degrees, and will remain mostly steady through the afternoon or fall slightly. By later this evening, the rain and clouds should move out of the area and clear up and become a little cooler in the overnight hours, dropping into the upper 30s/lower 40s. The cold front will make steady progress across Illinois from NW to SE today. The high resolution models are pointing toward an enhanced area of frontogenesis developing after sunrise this morning roughly along the I-72 corridor. Some sunshine this afternoon in our W-NW counties could help those temps rebound farther into the lower 60s.
1105 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 After a cool start, another mild day is in store ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will still be likely in the southeast ridges Wednesday morning as the cold front exits east. Showers will gradually diminish through the day, but colder low level northwest flow will keep a low chance for showers into early evening in the ridges. High pressure and anticyclonic flow will end showers quickly Wednesday evening, with gradual clearing.
251 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 High pressure will move east of area overnight before a cold front approaches the region late tonight. Cold frontal passage will occur Wednesday. High pressure then builds in through the end of the week. Models then indicate a later arrival of cldnss in the late ngt tm frame ahead of a cold front currently near the QB/ONT border. Hi temps on Wed will be cooler than tdy due to the presence of cldnss and shwrs. The upper trof axis is forecast to move east of the down east coast Wednesday night.
1245 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 High pressure will persist across the region through tonight.
1255 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2016 Large scale ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the western US into the Central High Plains region. A trough extends across the southern plains, but is having little to no influence on sensible weather over our CWA. At the surface, high pressure is in place over our CWA. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across our CWA as Canadian high pressure slides eastward. If lower visibilities were to occur(below 1sm) freezing fog couldn't be ruled out. I held off on freezing fog mention for now, due to the low overall confidence. An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue dominating the weather across the High Plains.
Clearing skies will spread into far southeast Nebraska prior to sunrise with high pressure at both the surface and aloft building into the region behind the departing upper trough.
Main source of instability is an upper-trough across the Red River valley of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Trough to gradually push southeast across the region through the next 24 hours with conditions gradually improving from the northwest. Surface and upper-level high pressure to strengthen across the region through midweek with dry conditions prevailing through the remainder of the forecast period.
140 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 A cold front and upper level disturbance will approach from the northwest tonight, and then sweep through the area on Wednesday.
1023 AM MST Tue Nov 8 2016 Strong upper ridge in control today. The dry and mild weather conditions that have been so common over the last several days will continue into Wednesday as an upper ridge builds over the Northern Rockies. The ridge begins to flatten Wednesday night as a dry cold front crosses the region.
1022 AM MST Tue Nov 8 2016 Sprawling upper ridge moves from the Great Basin to central plains this period.
Temperatures will remain in the low 30s across the Nebraska/South Dakota border. For Wednesday, high pressure will slowly drift southward, however, it will continue to influence the weather across Nebraska. High temperatures will range from the low 70s across the northwest to the upper 60s across the southeast.
Tonight and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front moving over lower Michigan early this afternoon. Looking upstream, another large area of high pressure resides over the Great Plains with clear skies. Clouds will likely hang on across eastern WI into the evening due to flow off Lake Superior and thermal troughing. Thereafter, high pressure will gradually build in from the northern Plains. The high pressure system will slide across the area bringing sunny conditions. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s.
1238 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 After a cool start, another mild day is in store ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will still be likely in the southeast ridges Wednesday morning as the cold front exits east. Showers will gradually diminish through the day, but colder low level northwest flow will keep a low chance for showers into early evening in the ridges. High pressure and anticyclonic flow will end showers quickly Wednesday evening, with gradual clearing.
This activity was associated with a slow moving upper level trough of low pressure.
A surface cold front also was positioned from Lake Huron, to near St Louis to the eastern Texas Hill Country. The cold front should continue moving eastward during the course of the evening and overnight, reaching far NW Alabama in the early/mid evening, and should be east of the area shortly after midnight. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning should give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, as high pressure to our west builds eastward. A somewhat tightening pressure gradient as the ridge builds in should produce winds in the 5-15 mph range, with some higher gusts, especially in the higher terrain. Minimum relative humidity values should be reduced into the low/mid 30s percent range in some spots Wed afternoon.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the week thanks to a large and persistent area of high pressure.
1240 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2016 Sprawling upper ridge moves from the Great Basin to central plains this period.
1135 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Relatively quiet weather expected today as high pressure builds into the region. Good radiative conditions tonight will result in temperatures dipping below freezing in some locations.
225 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 High pressure will continue to weaken and move offshore the evening as a cold front moves into the Mississippi River Valley. Models are progging a wind shift/trough out ahead of the main boundary that moves through late tonight/very early on Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough is expected to move through the area late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Winds are not expected to pick up much speed behind the trough, but should change direction to a more westerly direction. Winds are expected to become gusty behind the cold front during the late morning and afternoon on Wednesday.
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 The upper level trough axis is starting to work into northwestern Missouri early this morning. Strong subsidence in the wake of that upper trough will clear skies out later today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure will build into the region. While the high won't be centered right over the forecast area, it will allow winds to become light or even calm for much of the area. More widespread frost is likely across northwestern Missouri, closer to the center of the high and more likely to see calm winds and ideal radiational cooling conditions.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis will move directly over the western Dakotas, likely bringing near record to record breaking warmth to all of western and central North Dakota.
The strong, positively-tilted upper ridge is well entrenched over the southwestern quarter of the country with dry and stable air in place across Colorado. Mid-level temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday, so high temperatures across the plains could crack the 70 degree mark at several locations. Blocking ridge will remain in control of our weather through the rest of the week.
This will help to push a weak cold front across the Mid South tonight.
242 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Cold front currently moving into nw section of the forecast area will continue southeastward early tonight and should be through most the region by 03Z. Thereafter, skies should clear out from nw to se late tonight into early Wednesday as high pressure builds east from the Plains. In fact, will need to introduce areas of frost over all but far southern counties late Wed night as clear skies and calm winds allow readings to radiate down into the lower/mid 30s.
Strong 850mb high was developing over the High Plains to Rockies in wake of the 850mb "cold" front, which extended from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes toward eastern TX. With high pressure sliding overhead tonight, along with attendant clear skies and light winds, lows tonight will fall into freezing range in many locations, especially favored locations such as low spots and valleys.
129 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 A cold front will bring showers tonight and into Wednesday.
High pressure will cross the region overnight with preferred ridge axis overhead by 12z.
1256 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 Cold front passes late tonight with showers lingering into Wednesday.
Late afternoon surface observations show a cold front stretched roughly along a Georgetown to Uvalde line. Farther east, the cold front is expected to slow it's southward progress this evening and overnight. We still have an active southwest flow aloft with an upper low to our west through tonight. The upper low begins to retrograde westward across northern Mexico on Wednesday. For Wednesday night, we should see enough dry air advection in the low-levels to limit shower activity along and east of I-35.
Clouds have been slow to vacate southern portions of the area this afternoon, but a post frontal dry, cooler air mass has begun to push into the area. With ample subsidence giving way to clear skies and drier low-level air advecting eastward tonight, expect patchy to widespread frost is expected to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning as strong radiational cooling allows temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s. Wednesday will be a pleasant day across the region as high pressure moves through and brings light winds and clear skies, with seasonal temperatures.
315 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 A cold front has worked its way through all but the southeastern most counties of the forecast area this afternoon, with cooler air and slightly drier conditions moving in behind the front. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows an elongated, east-west oriented upper trough overhead, which continues to enhance lift across all of the region. The forecast will call for a chance of showers with the better rain chances eventually shifting to the southern half of the region where the higher moisture levels reside. During the next 24 hours, the base of the upper trough will shift southwest and split from the main flow, forming a cut-off low over Northern Mexico tomorrow.
Upper level ridge axis from eastern Nevada through Idaho up into Alberta Canada. Warmer day for Wednesday as ridge axis moves a little closer to southeast WYoming. High temperatures Wednesday should easily get into the low to possibly mid 70s out across the Panhandle.
For locations under the inversion, expect readings in the lower to mid 50s.
There is an even lower probability but feasible scenario in which freezing fog develops at KGUY or KAMA tomorrow morning. Upper high/ridge builds over the Great Basin region and southwestern states today and then across the northern and central Rockies tonight and Wednesday. a closed upper low develops over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley/northwest Texas tonight and then tracks west and south across the Permian Basin and far west and southwest Texas Wednesday. The Panhandles will be between the closed upper low to the south and west and the upper ridge to the north and west Wednesday.
236 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 High pressure will persist across the region through Wednesday.
The upper ridge with summer-like 500mb heights continues to build over the Rockies and Plains. Will continue to keep highs in the low to mid 60s, which could push the record at some locations.
High pressure over the region will maintain dry and mild weather conditions through late week.
Strong high pressure will bring persistent mild and dry weather through the period. thanks to an expansive high pressure ridge. This ridge will remain in control through the week before flattening out over the weekend and allowing for an increase in high cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures.
Surface/upper level ridge builds into Minnesota and western Wisconsin and provides mostly sunny skies and dry weather. slightly cooler airmass filters into the forecast area. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to middle 50s. Surface/upper level ridge dominates the region tonight.
320 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Cold front extended from Detroit to St. Louis with a high pressure ridge from northern MN to NM. Tonight: High pressure ridge building into the cwa will provide clear skies and light winds. Wednesday: High pressure over the cwa will again allow for a sunny day with above normal temperatures.
Upper analysis shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS. Tonight, the upper ridge will continue to build eastward over the northern plains. Light southerly sfc winds will continue overnight and low temperatures will mainly be in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
The amplified upper ridge currently sitting over the area will get flattened by energy streaming across southern Canada. This will increase downslope flow and cause temperatures to rise into the lower 70s for most locations.
1258 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 A cold front will move across the area through tonight, with rain showers expected to continue through the evening hours. Otherwise, expect dry weather and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week, with highs primarily ranging from the upper 40's to the low 60's.
344 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 A cold front will move east of the forecast area this evening. High pressure will build over the region on Wednesday.
316 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Cold front continues to push through southeast OK this afternoon with drier low level airmass spreading southeast.
As of early this morning, some cirrus was spreading into the FA from a 500mb ridge over the western United States.
A positively-tilted and disjointed upper trough moving through the region is providing only marginal lift for shower development to our west across Mississippi. With a very dry antecedent airmass in place, any additional lift associated with the upper trough or surface front is unlikely to result in precipitation.
Upper level low pressure across eastern Oklahoma will move south toward central Texas by sunrise Wednesday. Low cigs, ranging from MVFR to LIFR, currently affecting most terminals behind a cold front that continues to push south this morning. INK and PEQ could be right on the edge of the low clouds this afternoon but will return them to VFR during this time for now. /issued 307 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016/ A cold front is moving through the area this morning bringing cooler temperatures in its wake. The associated upper trough will actually deepen into a low, and become disassociated with the prevailing flow and retrograde west under an amplifying ridge over the Rockies.
will continue to weaken as a cold front moves southward toward the region. However, the best dynamics with the trough swinging across the eastern U. Have left the highest PoPs over the coastal waters and only gone with 20 percent from about the Tampa Bay area northward across the Nature Coast.
A slow moving cold front will bring a little rain to the area tonight and Wednesday morning.
241 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Upper trough will sag south of the area this evening while ridge across the western Conus begins to build eastward into the area. Concern would be for either fog or patchy frost to develop, but with center of the high well west of the area all guidance suggests boundary layer to remain mixed enough to preclude any fog or frost potential. High pressure will dominate the region through midweek.
1110 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 Gusty northwest winds will continue this afternoon, in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today. Wood Cold front has moved south of Kenosha this morning. A narrow band of showers along a cold front will progress sewd across srn WI this morning. The upper trough passage will follow from late morning through the early afternoon. For tonight, a ridge of high pressure will extend from the central Great Plains to north central WI with height rises as the upper trough moves away.
A cold front will drop south across the area overnight and this may kick off a few more light rainshowers, but expect very little accumulation. High pressure and drier air will build across the area on Wednesday with clearing skies during the afternoon hours.
We expect a more substantial band of showers to move across the area tonight in association with a cold front. The cold front is forecast to be southeast of the KY by 4 AM with the shower threat ending on Wednesday. Much cooler air will spread into the area in the wake of the cold front with highs on Wednesday in the 50s. The cooler and temporarily damp conditions will also help the overall wild fire situation tonight into Wednesday, but since we are not expecting a soaking rain this will not put an end to wild fire concerns.
327 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016 Surface cold front has already begun to move across lower Michigan and will clear the area by early evening. Rain showers will diminish over the next few hours before coming to end with the cold frontal passage. The upper level trough will continue to lag behind the surface front and will exit east of the area overnight. Clouds are expected to stick around, so despite the cooler northwesterly flow and 850 mb temperatures dropping to around 0C, low temperatures will stay in lower 40s tonight.
As a cold front continues to move through ERN OK and NW AR cigs will lift to MVFR/VFR as drier air filters across the region. /Issued 1023 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016/ Cold front located roughly along the I-44 corridor this morning.
High pressure aloft will remain the dominant feature across the interior west through the upcoming weekend.
An upper level long wave trof was moving through the forecast area at 07Z/1AM. At the surface, a cold front was just exiting Price county. Some stratus was leaking over the Canadian border into the Arrowhead associated with the upper trof. Meanwhile, dry high pressure was building into the area from the west. Clearing skies were occurring thanks to the high. The upper trof moves east of northwest Wisconsin by afternoon. This leaves the region in a northwest flow with much cooler temps at 850mb, around 4C, through the day. Will see the clouds over the Arrowhead dissipate by afternoon with the departing trof. However, the drier air arriving from the high pressure may affect the overall cloud coverage. Max temps will be cooler today.
The strongly positive tilt trof from the Great Lakes southwest to southern texas will progress southeastward tonight into Wednesday as the southern part of the trof breaks off and retrogrades westward. An associated cold front will move through the area Wed afternoon with a cooler and drier airmass moving in. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s along the coast.