Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis at of 300 am depict a burgeoning large scale mid winter polar trough encompassing the entire CONUS with the exception of the Western Seaboard. The main axis of the trough was oriented from Lake Superior south southwest to Western Texas. South Florida and the Keys are now beneath low amplitude cyclonic/zonal flow at the base of said trough, with strong 75 knot westerlies at 250 mb, but 125 to 150 knot winds at 250 mb are moving from South Texas to Central Florida. Well southeast of that, a cold front is trudging very little to the south and extends from the Central Bahamas to just north of Pinar Del Rio Cuba to a weak low pressure system developing in the Bay of Campeche.
The slowly progressive west to east trough that helped generate snow flurries late yesterday and into early this morning over the WFO PAH forecast area will be pushed into the Southern U. /Canada trough, forcing channeled vorticity, differential pressure and moisture and thermal gradients, along mainly the eastern two-thirds of the WFO PAH forecast area (east of the Mississippi River) on Sunday. At this time, will still maintain the highest PoPs/Weather chances for Sunday into Sunday evening across eastern sections of Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.
/ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017/ A positive tilt upper level trough axis continues to slowly move south through the region today. Ahead of the upper trough, weak frontogenetical lift is acting to create some light rain and cloud cover across Central and West Texas. However, very dry air in the lower levels is causing most of the precipitation to evaporate/sublime before reaching the surface. Still a few sprinkles or some measurable light rain may be possible across the southwestern and southern zones this evening before all of the mid/upper level lift/moisture shifts southeast of the region with the upper trough. Generally clear skies by daybreak will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the CWA, but winds look to stay up just enough to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night.
With passing clouds and mixing sfc winds maintaining at least 8-12 MPH overnight, will keep most lows in the low to mid 20s. Highs still suggest 25 to 35 with lows in the lower to middle 20s.
With a short wave trough currently slicing through the area, snow shower activity has really blossomed since roughly 9 PM. Differential PVA along with increased upper diffluence ahead of the trough as well as a temporary increase in inversions heights and moist depth well into the dendritic growth layer seem to be the culprits.
209 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build over the east coast tonight and Sunday.
Jaszka /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ Large scale upper level trough from the Eastern Pacific continues to progress inland into the Western US this weekend. Cooling aloft with the incoming trough will allow the airmass to sufficiently destabilize this afternoon for a few thunderstorms with axis of best instability looking to set up roughly from Helena east to Lewistown late this afternoon into early this evening within an area of convergent low-mid level flow.
305 PM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front now east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis to the east of the region, with southwest flow ahead of trough moving across the west coast states. Unsettled and much cooler weather can be expected through the rest of the weekend as west coast trough moves quickly east and low pressure develops within the trough as it moves over the region later on Sunday and Sunday night. The northern Black Hills and the Bear Lodge Mts, especially the higher elevations, still have the highest potential for significant snowfall of 6 inches or more due to colder air aloft and upslope enhanced snow potential.
252 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 The high pressure ridge shifted to the east this morning shifting winds to a southerly direction today.
201 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Temperatures will average below normal today as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
as mid and upper level trough shifts well offshore locally.
331 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide for seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
Models remain in decent agreement with bringing a cold front in- backing off on this boundary moving into SE TX as its associated upper trof/low is progged track further north (i.
410 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure builds over the local area tonight.
329 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) Above normal temperatures are forecast overnight, with lows mainly in the low to mid 60.
204 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure moves off the east coast on Sunday.
Synoptic Setup: A large ridge runs from Texas Panhandle through the central US Plains and into western Ontario. An equally large trough runs up the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. A weak ridge axis is embedded in the flow from central Montana through Alberta and into the Yukon Territory. This afternoon and evening: The weak meso-ridge axis will remain in place through the evening keeping most of the CWA variably cloud from the pacific Moisture feed and dry from the stable side of the ridge. Tonight into Sunday: Meso-ridge axis will partially move across the CWA putting the far southwestern counties under a lift zone.
Winds will decrease overnight as an area of low pressure moves toward the Rockies.
338 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 As of 3 pm this afternoon we have broken the daily high temperature value at KLBB at 92, coinciding well with peak 500 mb heights as the upper ridge axis shifts east. Meager Gulf moisture return overnight on the back of moderate SW surface winds will lead to another mild overnight, but what moisture lingers tomorrow morning will get scoured out quickly by noon on the Caprock as a dryline surges east during the afternoon and evening under a sharpening trough axis. Surface westerlies will spread across the CWA by Sunday afternoon providing another dry, breezy and warm afternoon, though high temperatures will be cooler than today.
The trough responsible for the gusty southwest winds and showers across the region will quickly move out of the area tonight. Behind the cold front, temperatures will remain cool on Sunday even under ample sunshine. Strong southwest winds, isolated showers, and increasing humidity have developed today with a cold front crossing the district.
High pressure over the region today will shift east of the Appalachians tonight, and off the Carolina coast tomorrow. With the dry air mass, full sun, and the low level flow turning to southerly, highs will reach the mid and upper 70s again in the TN Valley tomorrow.
430 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 No sections updated A large area of high pressure over Tennessee and eastern Ohio will continue moving east as low pressure moves into the central plains.
314 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Southerly winds have returned to the region today and this has resulted in a moistening of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
153 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Surface analysis shows a narrow ridge of high pressure situated from OH through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light or calm flow and a clear sky was being observed within the ridge over the TN valley this afternoon.
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Gusty south winds have brought much warmer readings into the region today with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s across the region. These winds will only decrease slightly overnight, keeping overnight lows unseasonably mild in the lower to middle 60s. Strong capping inversion will be the big deciding factor behind any strong storms that may develop Sunday evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. These latter solutions seem more reasonable, especially since overall synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the upper trough doesn't appear to be strong enough to overcome such a strong inversion.
Tomorrow afternoon, winds will become S to SW once the high pressure ridge over the area today moves to the east.
Isolated snow showers will continue through the evening, but warmer daytime temperatures will keep roads wet with no accumulations. Scattered rain showers this afternoon at area terminals will transition to snow showers this evening as a cold front moves through. A low pressure trough and associated mid level circulation will strengthen and move through southwest and west central Montana later this afternoon and evening. A mix of rain/snow and graupel will be possible, with mountain passes and the higher terrain seeing mostly snow. Precipitation will begin to decrease quickly through Sunday morning as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area.
139 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure across the region today will push east of the region tonight.
1246 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure will move east of Arkansas today. A short wavelength mid-level ridge will move over the mid south early in this period, promoting the dry and warm conditions. This feature will support a cold front approach to the state late, focusing scattered convection across northwest sections.
254 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 An area of low pressure, currently in northeast SD, will continue progressing eastward. Winds are breezy behind the low with gusts exceeding 25 mph at times.
This deep layer ridging will keep our skies clear and winds light.
329 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 The upper ridge will drift eastward across the state overnight. Have kept the overnight lows on the cooler side of guidance numbers as a result.
228 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure in the southeastern states will build toward the area through tonight and move offshore on Sunday.
105 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Aviation Today will be sunny and warmer with highs around 60.
Rain, snow and gusty winds associated with a storm system and cold front will exit state tonight with dry conditions returning to central and northern Nevada Sunday.
306 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southward to the Gulf Coast. a 991mb low is noted over Manitoba, with a cold front trailing into the Northern and Central Plains. The amount of cloud cover will influence Sunday afternoon high temperatures, resulting in slightly cooler readings than previously forecast across the W/SW KILX CWA. As the cold front nears, a few showers will develop late Sunday night. Models have correctly backed off on the areal coverage of precip due to a lack of deep-layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which will be largely blocked by surface ridging over the Deep South.
357 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Closed low at H5 over the northeast Pacific with wave affecting northern California and the Pacific northwest. Broad ridge from Texas into the Hudson Bay and closed low over Maine. At the surface cold front moving to the southeast over western Nebraska. Boundary over western Nebraska this evening will be the focus for thunderstorm development over mainly northern Nebraska as impulses are ejected from the trough to the west. Dewpoints in the 40s approaching the low 50s over Oneill tonight. West to northwest winds tonight will keep boundary layer mixed and with cloud cover and warm ridge aloft lows expected in the 40s and 50s. Upper low closes off over eastern Wyoming. Upper low directly over head with precipitation and low clouds will keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s for daytime highs.
345 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Breezy, warm day in progress as warm advection on southerly winds gusting to around 30 mph, and thinning mid-high clouds/increasing solar insolation working in tandem to propel temperatures into the lower to middle 70s over much of the area. Surface analysis places low pressure near Gwinner, ND with a warm front extending into northern IA and a cold front trailing through central NE.
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A convoluted and nodular mid-upper level trough is diving southeast through the southeastern United States and the Florida Peninsula, resulting in mean cyclonic flow aloft. Northeast breezes will remain light overnight, allowing the island chain a chance to decouple and radiate into the lower to mid 60s. Northeast to east breezes will freshen on Sunday, from east to west as the high pressure system expands and strengthens over the Western North Atlantic.
200 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure moves off the east coast on Sunday.
Best large scale forcing associated with lead trough will pass over the region early in the day, which will coincide with substantial capping inversion and is not expected to result in convective development. However, later in the day we could see isolated storms develop east of the dryline as lower amplitude tailing trough passes over the region. Most probable areas for isolated storm development will be over far north-central Oklahoma, which will be closer to deep ascent associated with mentioned trough, and over southwest-southcentral Oklahoma. Convective development over southwest-southcentral Oklahoma will depend heavily on lower level wind response to surface cyclone/thermal low that some models are developing over northwest texas. A few of the high- res models are also coming into agreement with this scenario.
1110 AM MDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Today an upper level trof will be over the western states, and there will be increasing southwest flow aloft over southern CO. Ahead of the approaching upper trof, mstr will increase acrs western areas and some showers are expected to move over the Continental Dvd this afternoon. Tonight the upper trof moves into WY and western CO. Will go with the highest pcpn chances today and tonight over the central mtns, along with some light snow accumulations. High temps today are expected to generally be 10-15 degrees warmer than average.
High pres ridges acrs MS/AL into southeastern LA. Mid and upper levels progged to remain very dry within a northwest flow today between the exiting east coast trof and plains ridge, with flow trending west moving through Sunday as aforementioned ridge advances over and east of the region.
219 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure will build in from the west today and remain overhead tonight before passing offshore on Sunday.
A low pressure trough and associated mid level circulation will strengthen and move through southwest and west central Montana later this afternoon and evening. A mix of rain/snow and graupel will be possible, with mountain passes and the higher terrain seeing mostly snow. Precipitation will begin to decrease quickly through Sunday morning as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area.
337 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Cirrus clouds have kept temperatures much cooler than forecasted today. Tonight a cold front will push through the area, shifting winds to the northwest.
SW lobe of high pressure ridge will weaken as its northern lobe becomes dominant and moves offshore the SE seaboard. Aloft, a mid level trough will drop SSE from GA/SC into central FL and the adjacent Atlantic. While I think the higher resolution mesoscale models (WRF/HRRR) might be too ambitious in developing isolated light shower activity offshore and along the Treasure Coast late, will have to watch Atlantic after midnight as PVA superimposed over the Gulf Stream could enhance lift to the point where a few showers could develop, even as dry as the local air mass currently is.
202 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure builds over the local area tonight.
This cloudiness was in advance of a trough which was over the Great Basin. Temperatures were quite mild over the area, with L80s over the far eastern plains, and 70s over the remainder of the low country. The main concern tonight will be the windy conditions, especially over the higher elevations of the mountains. Lots of high clouds will remain over the region, but should decrease as the trough axis moves across the region late tonight. It will be noticeably cooler across the region with highs about 10F cooler across the lower elevations.
Dry northwest flow aloft remains dominant across the central Gulf Coast region early this afternoon ahead of a building ridge over the Mississippi Valley. With current dew points in the mid 30's, light surface winds and clear skies tonight, some areas should be able to see temperatures reach the low 40's prior to sunrise. Throughout the day, a mid-level ridge axis over the central CONUS continues its slow drift eastward. Along the coast, temps should remain near the low 70's owing to southerly winds over cool near shore waters from the daily sea-breeze.
With cooler air over the region, freezing temperatures or frost will be possible tonight.
143 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure will slide to our southeast today but will still be responsible for dry and quiet weather through the weekend along with a nice warming trend.
249 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build over the east coast tonight and Sunday.
While skies are clearing behind the low, high clouds remain over the eastern CWA, thus have increase cloud cover through the afternoon. Fire weather concerns remain today as the high clouds currently overhead shift to the east. The main concerns fire wise will be the low RH values falling to 20-25 percent near and west of the MO River 18Z-00Z, and the strongest winds near and just behind the passing cold front. The timing of the strongest winds doesn't overlap with the lowest humidity values. So while grassland fire danger index values will rise into the high to very high levels, winds will not be as strong and widespread as yesterday. Dry weather will prevail until closer to 00Z Sunday, as the 500mb ridge that had been overhead slides to the Great Lakes Region.
This will maintain mixed conditions as cirrus spilling over the ridge infiltrates late. Low pressure ejects from the front range into the Upper Mississippi Valley late tonight into Sunday evening with Southeast Michigan residing firmly within the established warm sector. This will support high temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer than today in addition to a substantial gust component.
High pressure ridge axis will remain across the region, producing a S/SE flow over the region. This will continue to increase temperatures to above normal values, with highs in the low 80s this afternoon and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. The flow pattern over the srn tier of the Conus will remain somewhat progressive in nature through midweek as a broad cyclone evolves over the Grt Lakes and Oh Valley to the Gulf of Mex. An airmass change ascd with a passing front on Wed will bring cooler air through Fri. There is a tendency by recent ECM and GFS for development of amplified pattern over the eastern from late week into the weekend with cooler than normal temps setting up in deep nw/nly flow.
Sunday and Sunday evening look dry, with seasonably chilly temperatures, as high pressure builds across the region. Most of CNY/NEPA is precipitation- free as of this writing, but that should change later this afternoon, as moisture and forced lift both increase, associated with a clipper- type low moving by to our north, and a cold front approaching from the west. Once the trailing cold front goes through later tonight, a very brief opportunity exists for lake snows on a westerly flow. However, with the ridge axis quickly building over the region on Sunday, any lake snow bands should be weakening with time, and lifting north of our forecast area by later Sunday morning/midday.
116 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak cold front and showers will move east tonight. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather on Sunday.
1149 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A weak cold front will move east across the state overnight bringing a few snow showers to the central and western mountains.
Given thermal profiles, there could be a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle in the morning before temperatures warm enough in the afternoon. Thus, precipitation will be dependent on surface temps through the period, with mostly freezing drizzle expected north of I80, and mostly drizzle expected south. Again, measurable QPF Sunday night into Monday will probably be very low, but may have to watch for very minor accums of ice north of I80 with the freezing drizzle. But temps do warm just above freezing by Monday afternoon, so impacts should hopefully be minor. Much colder air will be crashing into the area Monday night, but any precip threat will also be ending, as a period of drizzle or freezing drizzle Monday night.
All models favor areas where clouds stay warmer than -10 C. NAM/EC warm to +1 to +2 into KLSE by 00z Tue with the GFS much warmer - closer to +5. A look at the Bufkit soundings show good depth to the warming, making full melting, even in the slightly cooler NAM/EC, likely. Freezing rain/drizzle potential where near sfc temp cold enough. As for headlines, if this scenario plays out "as is" a freezing rain advisory would be needed for southeast MN and parts of northeast IA and western WI - centered on Monday morning.
Medium Low pressure will approach on Monday, moving through the state Monday evening and overnight. Models are coming into better agreement with the track and strength of the low, though there are still differences to be resolved.
1135 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure will provide a dry start to the new year.
400 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A cold front moves across this morning with high pressure following in its place. The high centers over the region tonight and slides offshore Monday.
343 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 One round of showers is departing the area this morning and another will move through tonight thanks to a couple of quick moving short wave troughs. Models are showing increasing westerly flow behind the trough on Monday with MET/MAV guidance showing strong winds are possible at GDP.
214 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 Current upper level short wave trough entering southwest Kansas will continue to move northeast and way from the panhandles this morning. Another upper level short wave trough currently over southern California will move east through the day and will pass just south of the panhandles tonight.
Imagery shows a typical cold system, with cumuliform cloudiness over the milder NErn Pac ocean and band of SC (stratocumulus) clouds, and an area of colder enhanced clouds in the NE quadrant of the upper low. With the upper low developing over the Pac NW the cold air will spill into Norcal but moisture won't sufficiently increase until the upper low retrogrades, tapping Pacific moisture on Tue.
223 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will move across the area today providing fair weather.
432 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will bring a dry start to the New Year.
435 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the thirties are expected today as high pressure resides over the area. Cold front is currently moving through the western Catskills and northeast Pennsylvania. Initially the surface temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to fall as either light freezing rain or sleet then as the boundary layer warms later Monday the activity will change to light rain. Latest model guidance shows temperatures at the surface warming slightly slower than previous guidance so in the normally cooler areas in the eastern forecast area, western Catskills and Oneida County, this spotty wintry mix could continue well into the afternoon. Temperatures in the colder locations in the far eastern CWA such as Oneida to Sullivan Counties in NY could start out near freezing. Have a chance of evening freezing rain.
Surface cold front extending SW across the Ohio Valley into NW Arkansas this morning will become nearly stationary as it sags SE toward Middle TN tonight.
This boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front today but increasing cloudiness will keep the warmup in check. The upper low that will move northeast from northern Mexico towards the Arklatex late tonight and Monday looks like it will be a few hours slower than it looked at this time yesterday.