Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
447 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 WE WILL BE STARTING OUT THE WORK WEEK PLEASANTLY WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND THIS WILL SWING OUR WINDS EASTERLY AND BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO SETX TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING DOES NOT BUILD IN THANKS TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW THAT REMAINS SPINNING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING MARINE AIR TO PUSH INLAND.
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING.
124 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF IN AS MANY DAYS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED THE LOW LEVEL MORE UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH LAPSE RATES FROM ABOUT 8. LEFT SLEET OUT FOR NOW GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT PRECIP TYPE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TO NEAR 40 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO MOOSE LAKE REGION. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MORE AS YOU HEAD EAST WHERE TIMING OF TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION. WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE RIDGES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE OVER BEFORE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT.
357 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY FORM ALONG THE RIDGES AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AREAS. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE STALLING.
532 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO A COOLER.
MEANWHILE THE BROADER LONG WAVE CYCLONE OVER THE NE U.
1026 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS AND TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE MS RIVER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI.
EYES ARE CURRENTLY ON A DECAYING MCS IN IL/IN/OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
MODELS STILL CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN ON A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SW.
OVERALL THINKING THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER TODAY WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED EAST OF TRAIL RIDGE.
1159 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS AS OUTFLOWS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE NEW CELLS. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY.
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
1045 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY INVOF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH COOL AIR SPREADING INTO PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S. 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS TRICKLING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM/VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE KILX CWA. THEN WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT THE NAM AND OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ONLY SUGGEST CONVECTION UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT, AS OROGRAPHIC AND HIGH TERRAIN INITIATED STORMS MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL COLORADO AND INTO NW KANSAS. CLOUDS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS SUPPORT THE WARMER MODEL TEMPERATURES VS. THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NE MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS TROUGH IS PROGD TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALLOWING THE PERIPHERY OFA MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST TO SHIFT ESE AND EDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A REGION OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL CRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THE WEEKEND.
40 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT (FROM THE WEST) AND AT THE SFC (TO THE EAST) WILL HELP TO KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF ISOLATED MOSTLY DIURNAL POPS IN THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. PER THESE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS A CHANGE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN IS LIKELY FORTHCOMING AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST AMPLIFIES AND A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR MUCH THIS WEEK. THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIL 03Z SCATTERED HIGH BASED -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN FROM KSOW-KFLG- KAIBAB PLATEAU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
838 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
951 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN WED TO BE OVER THE REGION WED NGT.
CONSENSUS AMONG THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. AS A DEEP INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND BOOSTS DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THE UL RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS HEADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LIMITED POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION WITHIN A MODESTLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
THERE IS STILL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT IS SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN US WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
953 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH A FEW CUMULUS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. HEIGHTS BUMP UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REPOSITIONING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH LATER TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD.
A PREDOMINATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3500 FEET ASL. THIS IS DUE TO PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS AND GULF STATES.
1152 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 MARINE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
1119 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ NORTHWEST OHIO/CENTRAL INDIANA/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROBABLY NOT GOING TO ALLOW MANY BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST FOR A WHILE AS ANY HOLES WILL FILL IN WITH HEATING INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT IS ALL THAT'S LEFT. WITH SHALLOW COOLER AIR INVADING VIA GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH PRETTY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
652 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS TRICKLING INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM/VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE KILX CWA. THEN WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
718 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 MARINE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
THERE IS STILL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT IS SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE AT 500MB, CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN, AND EVEN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE MODEL SOUNDING HAS THE FREEZING LEVEL AT 00Z LAST NIGHT AT AROUND 15200 FT, WHERE THE ACTUAL SOUNDING HAS IT 15800 FT. WHILE NOT A HUGE DIFFERENCE, APPLYING THE BIAS TO THIS AFTERNOON WOULD PUT THE FREEZING LEVEL AT ABOUT 15300FT, WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH. HAIL LOOKS TO BE A MINIMAL THREAT, GIVEN THE TEMPS ALOFT AND THE FREEZING LEVEL. WITH SOME DRIER AIR POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS WELL.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAD A STRONGER INVERSION WITH WARMER TEMPS AROUND 700 MB THAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE STARTED WITH. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL COME TO DOMINATE NORTHERN COLORADO WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTROLLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR CEN LA, OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST LOOKING GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND. TODAY WILL SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX FROM 98 TO ABOUT 104 DEGREES.
JUST SOME SCT TO BKN CIRRUS WHICH SHOULD THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO ARIZONA. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BRINGS A PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ADD TO THE DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY.
/ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT (FROM THE WEST) AND AT THE SFC (TO THE EAST) WILL HELP TO KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF ISOLATED MOSTLY DIURNAL POPS IN THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. PER THESE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS A CHANGE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN IS LIKELY FORTHCOMING AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST AMPLIFIES AND A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.
THE BANANA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL US REMAINS IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY. KEEPING THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES COOLER. A SLIGHTLY COOLER. BUT MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BRINGING COOLER TEMPS TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREA.
701 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. COASTAL PLAINS TROF IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE METROPLEX SITES VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS 5-9 KNOTS. /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER S LA LATE THIS MORNING.
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
939 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
755 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A LEE TROUGH WILL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PIEDMONT. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER TN/AR WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIXING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY WITH FRONT OVER KANSAS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
906 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A MUCH QUIETER FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH A LARGE COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 80S GENERALLY.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS THINNING MORNING HIGH CLOUDS TEMPER INSOLATION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF ADVANCING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES DUE TO VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
650 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY.
A MODEST COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE MCS AND HAS RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA.
1030 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 80 KT JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND. TODAY WILL SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX FROM 98 TO ABOUT 104 DEGREES.
603 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE CARRIED EAST BY THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
1019 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER. A DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
330 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF MONTEREY THIS MORNING AND NEARLY STATIONARY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF NIGHTLY AND EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST MODELS MOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEAST TODAY AND MONDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN THROUGH THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SNOW AND COLDER CONDITIONS. WITH WARM ADVECTION AND RIDGING ALOFT.
WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY.
High pressure has started to build over the region this morning. This is allowing some clearing in many locations, such as Kalispell, where temperatures have dropped into the low teens. High pressure is still expected to build over the region and remain for most of the week. Cool overnight temperatures will become common through valley locations while the high terrain will remain mild. Many valley locations like Missoula, Salmon, Seeley Lake, and Kalispell have the highest chance to remain in valley inversions both during the day and night this week.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WIND YESTERDAY IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING IN OVER THE ROCKIES. REST OF FORECAST FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRI WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT E AND BREAK DOWN. STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO FAR EASTERN MT ON TUE. MORE MOISTURE WILL COME AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE KBHK AREA THU NIGHT SUPPORTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FRI THROUGH SAT. THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. DUE TO LEE TROUGHING.