Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some mid- to high-level clouds associated with a narrow strip of vorticity on the back side of the passing trough will provide the most significant cloud cover for the next several days. As the trough moves out, winds pick up tomorrow in its wake for the afternoon and look to generally be blustery during the afternoon hours of the next few days as southwest winds develop at the surface, sitting underneath the northwest flow that is the lee side of the upper-level ridge which is going to replace the trough over the region.
313 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Aviation section updated The most active part of the forecast will be early in the period when the upper ridge breaks down and a frontal system impacts central Indiana. The highest precipitation chances will be tonight through Saturday as the associated cold front moves through the forecast area.
Water vapor satellite imagery and heights show a broad trough of low pressure from Manitoba and Saskatchewan southwest toward Montana. Moisture was streaming eastward ahead of the trough with an atmospheric river not from the Pacific Ocean into southern California and the Four Corners area. The H85 thermal ridge was over the area. The very warm air with 60s in southeast Nebraska is quickly being replaced by cooler air with a cold front switching the winds around to the northwest as far south as Millard and temperatures are falling behind the front. Broad 60 to 80 meter height falls occur over the Plains with the longwave trough passage.
Raised high temps slightly today into the mid 60s for most of the area, but may be stalled a bit if the high clouds stream in a bit sooner.
Models still favoring the central mountains for the highest QPF and forecast is still built that way. it should pick up as the upstream cold front approaches. Much cooler conditions move in for Saturday with highs some 15 to 25 degrees cooler. By sunset Saturday a ridge building over the Great Basin will be in control of the weather over the forecast area.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is located across north central Kansas with an attendant dryline extending south-southwest across southwest Kansas and down into the eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle. A strong cold front will move across the region early Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures / widespread 50s / still look on track in the forecast.
200 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will be overhead through this evening, then move offshore late tonight. A much warmer southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night.
The most active part of the forecast will be early in the period when the upper ridge breaks down and a frontal system impacts central Indiana. The highest precipitation chances will be tonight through Saturday as the associated cold front moves through the forecast area.
A very dry air mass follows behind for the weekend as high pressure builds into the region bringing clearing skies, cold nights, and seasonably warm afternoons.
Tomorrow, a cold frontal passage, potential for thunderstorms in the morning hours, and blustery winds behind the boundary as the cold air settles into the region. Strong southerly winds today will continue through the night, ushering warmer air into Central IL ahead of a developing low to the west. Within the developing warm sector, temperatures will be slowly rising through most of the overnight into the upper 40s/low 50s before a cold front drops into the area. With the slower progression of the cold front, SPC has expanded the marginal risk (mainly for hail in elevated storms) back slightly to the north.
An upper trough crossing the area today will keep scattered showers across the mountains of e-central Oregon and southwest Idaho through the day. Isolated MVFR-IFR snow showers developing from 18z-23z today over the higher terrain.
The upper trough that has been affecting the Pacific Northwest the past few days will be to our east by noon today. A flat upper level ridge will be over the region on Saturday.
308 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will be overhead through this evening, then move offshore late tonight. A much warmer southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night.
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Precipitation along the cold front has finally saturated down and we are getting RA/FZRA reports from PKD and FFM. Bumped up POPs and included road temps to get a FZRA mention, as air temps are borderline for the freezing mark. A cold front is moving east into eastern ND. Warmer air ahead of the front as well. Temperatures in this area should be a bit warmer with more 33-34 and thus a bit lesser risk of icing. Cold front will push though and winds turn west to northwest and temperatures will fall some behind it. Saturday a dry but chilly day as high pressure moves southeast across western ND.
More clouds will arrive as the upper trough approaches later tonight, but there should be enough clear spots at least across the north to get into the single digits to low teens tonight. With a warmer start and more clouds the southern counties will stay closer to 20 degrees. There will be a surge of cold air advection behind the upper trough tomorrow. Quiet weather will dominate the end of the weekend and beginning of the work week as northwesterly flow aloft transitions into upper level ridging over the next couple of days.
A cold front will move through the area Saturday morning. The combination of a strong 850 MB thermal ridge and gusty southwest surface winds will result in afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s this afternoon. A strengthening lee trough will result in a tightening pressure gradient today, with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph by afternoon. Abilene Record High: 86 in 1938 Abilene Forecast High: 86 San Angelo Record High: 84 in 1938 San Angelo Forecast High: 88 A progressive short wave will move east across the Rockies and into the Plains tonight, with an associated cold front entering the northern Big Country towards daybreak Saturday.
339 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will slide to the east tonight, with rain chances increasing ahead of approaching low pressure and a cold front.
An approaching cold front will produce strong southwesterly winds today.
102 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
1121 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Decided to cancel the High Wind Warning through early this afternoon. May need to extend current advisories into the lower elevations since rain has changed to snow a little earlier than expected. Complicated forecast in the short term for today through tonight as a strong cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Cold front lays along a line from central South Dakota to Newcastle to Riverton to near Evanston this morning.
1201 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure extending from swrn Canada to off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Downstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into the Mid Atlantic states. West of the low, a cold front extended into northeastern Wyoming. A cold front will approach the forecast area this morning and is expected to clear the forecast area by mid afternoon. A windy and cooler day is expected Saturday in the wake of the Friday nights cold front.
1255 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will control the region through Saturday when the next cold front will approach from the northwest.
A cold front will approach the northern ranchlands towards the late afternoon hours on Saturday.
A cold front will move from northwest to southeast through the overnight and early morning hours across all terminals. There is a low chance of a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold front--especially across central Oklahoma; however, the probability is too low to include in TAFs for now. Current temperatures are already warmer than average high temperatures for mid-November. A gusty southwest wind will decrease this evening as a cold front approaches. Late this evening and mainly overnight, a strong cold front will move across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. Although temperatures will be much cooler Saturday, low afternoon humidity and gusty winds will certainly elevate fire weather conditions.
A few high clouds will move in from the northwest ahead of the cold front. A cold front will move through the area during the day on Saturday. The front will bring cooler temperatures and strong winds. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s with areas along the I-10 corridor seeing temperatures in the lower 70s.
Further east, most areas across the High Plains have been in the warm sector of the frontal system, which has been stationary across the area, so even as the rain changes to snow this evening, accumulations should be less than two inches on grassy surfaces.
Better chances of convection will be seen on Saturday as a cold front moves through AR. A weak warm front is also expected to lift through AR, and possibly help develop the light showers. Better chances of rain will be seen tonight to Saturday, as upper lift moves through the region, and the cold front pushes into AR. Tngt wl be quite mild with breezy S/SW winds ovr AR as low pressure moves closer to the state. By late tngt, the low wl be movg to the N of AR, with a CDFNT trailing back to the SW.
Deep layer ridging will build across our area tonight, resulting in continued dry conditions.
Fairly flat upper ridging from the W Gulf extends over the FL Peninsula into Saturday as first in a series of upper troughs swings into the Mississippi River Valley.
Pressure gradient will continue to increase late this morning and afternoon in response to height falls across the High Plains.
High temperatures will rise into the lower-mid 70s this afternoon under generally clear skies.
Morning Update: Just made a few updates to visibility this morning as a small fog bank drifted into the Glasgow area seemingly from somewhere around the lake, so some patchy freezing fog was included for the next couple of hours. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures overnight dropped a little bit further in some places than expected. Today, an upper trough will track across the Pacific Northwest and swing across the state of Montana. As this occurs, expect some increase in clouds across the region, continued cool temperatures with the lowering 500mb heights, and perhaps an isolated snow shower over far southern areas. Tonight and Saturday, that trough axis will shift downstream of the CWA as an upper ridge becomes established over the western U. An upper ridge over the western U.
Based on model soundings, much drier air will remain prevalent in the lower levels as a westerly downslope flow persists across the area behind an advancing dryline in central Kansas.
A vigorous western CONUS upper trof will move east across the northern/central Plains late tonight thru midday Saturday, before departing into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. Near record warmth ahead of the associated cold front this afternoon will be replaced by more seasonably cool air on Saturday. Expect to also see some widely scattered post-frontal showers early Saturday morning over central and eastern Kansas, associated with the strong mid-level cold advection just prior to the passage of the upper trof. This will be followed by subsidence and clearing as the upper trof departs in the afternoon.
Low pressure now is over Kansas with a High pressure center to our east. The gradient in between will tighten tonight, starting to bring in some warmer and more moist air. It will be one of those fall nights where the lowest temperature will be early this evening and then steadily rise under those southerly winds. A more solid line of showers should come through just ahead of the cold front in the mid to late afternoon hours.
321 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Satellite shows cooler cloud tops along with increasing echoes on radar across western SD late this afternoon. Jet stream lift along with the short wave trough coming in from the west were responsible for these clouds and light rainfall. It will feel much colder with the winds and temperatures with highs in the upper 20s far northeast to the lower 40s southwest.
147 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 A strong cold front crosses Saturday night.
Clouds move in tonight and tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. For Saturday, south-southwest winds ahead of the cold front will increase throughout the day, producing breezy conditions across much of the area by the afternoon hours. This fast southerly flow will also help temperatures warm into the mid 60s Saturday afternoon before the overnight cold frontal passage.
At 850 mb, a thermal ridge extended from Mexico up into CO, WY and then to along the MT/ND border. Winds should shift to the north or northwest across all of the area by mid to late afternoon with the low levels drying temporarily. Some light rain could linger in parts of southeast NE and southwest IA into mid morning Saturday, until the mid level trough moves east of the area, then the rest of the weekend should be dry.
There should then be a relative lull in the rain overnight, as the cold front pushes through the area. The forecast soundings are showing potential for a period of snow to occur, as the saturated air column gets mostly below freezing.
Winds ramp up even more on Saturday as the cold front approaches, with gusts exceeding 20 knots by mid-morning. Low level ridge centered over the area yesterday progged to continue sinking toward the south as a vigorous upper trof evident in water vapor satellite imagery over the PAC NW translates east toward the Plains. Elevated winds will continue tonight, mitigating any risk of fog but likely resulting in considerable stratus which will aid in holding temperatures up into the lower/mid 60s. Gusty southwest winds will near wind advisory criteria across parts of South Central LA on Saturday, with the CDFNT associated with the upper trof progged to cross the area during the afternoon and evening hours from NW to SE.
This will have highs today 5-10F warmer than yesterday and closer to seasonal norms. positively tilted upper trough. WAA will have little diurnal change in temps as readings remain in the 40s thru the night before rising into the lower 50s by early Saturday morning.
1239 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
A cold front will approach the region after midnight tonight with the potential for some thunderstorms along or just ahead of the front. There will be ample shear with the front but instability will be on the low side.
246 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows initial cold front south of the forecast area, with a secondary front edging into northern SD. Upper level analysis shows fast zonal flow across the area, with a trough moving quickly east-southeast across the central Rockies. Jet energy ahead of the trough is helping to produce areas of pcpn across the forecast area. Temps across the forecast area range from the mid 30s over northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the upper 40s over south central SD. North- northwest winds will become breezy in many areas tonight as area of low pressure passes southeast of the region and secondary front passes through at least northern and eastern portions of the area.
The upper level ridge will flatten overnight as well, allowing a short wave to trek across the Gulf Coast states through the day tomorrow. Mostly clear skies this afternoon and evening will give way to mid and high clouds overnight which should keep overnight lows warmer than this morning, and closer to climatological normals for this time of year.
240 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Northwesterly winds will diminish this evening as high pressure continues to build in form the west. The high will crest across the area early Saturday before gradually sliding offshore. A warm front will lift northward on Saturday night with a mix of rain showers south and rain/snow in the north.
Main weather highlight will be a cold front passage Saturday morning to early afternoon through the entire region. An airmass boundary between warm, moist and cooler, drier air currently exists across north Texas. A stronger mid- and low- level trough currently over the southern Rocky Mountains will shift across the southern plains overnight and through the day Saturday. This system will increase northwest flow greatly early Saturday morning and usher in the drier, cooler airmass to South-Central Texas.
319 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Upper level trough was moving over the western states this afternoon. The trough will continue to progress east overnight and across eastern Kansas through Saturday morning. A cold front was located across south central and southeast Nebraska at 20Z will move southeast this evening and overnight across eastern Kansas shifting the winds to the northwest. With the passage of the trough by early afternoon rain chances will end from west to east across cwa through the late morning hours.
A cool upper trough and showery air mass is shifting east today. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight and Saturday.
302 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 A strong cold front crosses Saturday night.
1259 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will build across the state today.
Based on model soundings, much drier air will remain prevalent in the lower levels as a westerly downslope flow persists across the area behind an advancing dryline in central Kansas. A strong cold front will move across the region early Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures / widespread 50s / still look on track in the forecast.
veering around to northwesterly late tonight as a strong cold front moves through. Pressure gradient will continue to increase late this morning and afternoon in response to height falls across the High Plains.
133 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Upper level trough moving across the central Rockies and Plains will drag a cold front through the forecast area late tonight and Saturday.
and Saturday After some light snow showers and flurries early this morning, additional precipitation will arrive from the west as a low pressure system tracks through the western Great Lakes region. This will open the door to all kinds of precipitation types, from snow, freezing drizzle, sleet and plain drizzle. The threat for icy roads will diminish from south to north as road temperatures warm above freezing this morning. Rain will diminish from west to east tonight as the low tracks away from the region. As temperatures once again fall freezing drizzle will once again be on the table across north- central and portions of central Wisconsin late tonight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 20s across the north, with lows in the lower to middle 30s across the south.
318 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Main forecast challenges lie with the potential for strong winds and the risk for thunderstorms with a cold frontal passage on Saturday. There may be some sct warm advection showers later tonight, esp in southern IL and se MO, but many locations will be mostly rainfree until the aforementioned cold front approaches and moves through on Saturday. Warm air advection in the low-levels will further be augmented by a 50-60 kt low-level jet. However, the mid/upper trof looks to be coming through with a positive tilt, and instabilities look quite marginal with MUCAPES likely to stay at or below 700 J/KG for the most part.
Currently a cold front extends from northeast Kansas and into eastern Colorado. The cold front will move through the region on Saturday. The cold front will be out of the region by Saturday night with rain ending over eastern sections of the forecast area.
319 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 In the short term, look for dwindling chances for precipitation this afternoon and cooler conditions Saturday. Cool Canadian air will accompany the high, creating below average temperatures for most locations in western and central ND.
The pressure gradient should begin to tighten further later this evening over the Srn Plains ahead of a strong cold front that will begin dropping SE into Nrn OK after 06Z Saturday, and thus inhibit cigs from becoming IFR overnight through Saturday morning.
As this occurs, the low level moisture will steadily increase. This will result in the development of drizzle south of Interstate 94 and drizzle and freezing drizzle north of this interstate. Due to the patchy nature, we will issue a Special Weather Statement to cover this and then monitor it closely to see whether a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle may be needed later. On Saturday, the cold front will move quickly southeast away from the region. As a result, went with the highest rain chances during the early morning and then quickly took them out by mid to late morning.
Aloft quasi-zonal flow dominates the central US, with an upper trough impinging on the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure spans from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, while low pressure deepens in the plains. By this afternoon, upper flow backs to slightly more southwesterly as upper trough moves into the Rockies. Broad scale lift ahead of this trough will aid saturation of the column and rain chances will increase late this afternoon and into the evening. Strong cold air advection will be underway Saturday morning in the wake of a potent surface cyclone. There are still differences in the strength and timing of the cold air among the warmer ECMWF and colder GFS/NAM, so confidence is rather low regarding the potential for accumulating snow.
Much warmer temperatures can also be expected with highs reaching the upper 60s north to lower 70s south. The low pressure should deepen and move east then northeast into the Great Lakes region on Saturday. The strong southerly flow will keep low temperatures well above normal in the lower to middle 60s. Strong and gusty southwest winds will continue into Saturday as a strengthening low level jet overspreads the Mid South ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect the trailing cold front with this low to sweep from NW to SE across the ArkLaTex and SE OK after sunrise throughout Saturday. Expect wind advisory criteria to continue behind the cold front during Saturday through sunset with the end of daytime heating.
The hot weather will continue today under the influence of broad high pressure. Then, cooler air will move in between a cold front that will sweep across central Indiana on Wednesday.
639 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure in control today.
Not much has changed across the area over the last day, with high pressure and an upper level ridge still placed just to our NE and in control of the weather across eastern Kentucky. Light winds and high pressure still in control will make conditions in the valleys conducive to fog development once again tonight. As we head into Wednesday, a weakening cold front will begin approaching from our NW. A pattern change will be under way as the period starts, with the persistent upper ridge which has been over our area getting suppressed to the south as a transient trough moves southeast over the northeast CONUS. This will allow a surface cold front to move southeast through the area on Wednesday night.
The main impact will be cloud cover, although a light shower is still possible closer to the Divide on higher peaks and ridgetops. As the low dropping over us today scoots southeast, it will split and form a closed low across the Desert Southwest. The high builds over us to the north, developing what is called a temporary Rex Block (High to north and low to the south).