Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
317 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Broad stacked ridging remains over the region with light SE wind flow regime to combine with W coast seabreeze and diurnal heating for another round of scattered to numerous afternoon into evening thunderstorms today into Monday.
-Kredensor Below normal temperatures are expected as a low pressure system moves across northern Montana through this evening.
Upper level disturbances will top the western United States upper level ridge and then move across the northern plains tonight/Sunday and then again by July 27-29th time frame. These systems will push cold fronts pass western Kansas, along with chances for thunderstorms. A cold front will pass across western Kansas tonight into Sunday in association with the aforementioned upper level disturbance. Warmest readings should be in south central Kansas in the lower 90s, with cooler lower 80s in Scott City.
Sunday will be similar to today across western and central Wyoming, with lower elevations ranging from the 70s to the lower 80s, while higher elevations reach the 60s to near 70. A building ridge will bring warmer temperatures back by Monday, with many areas reaching the upper 80s or 90s throughout the week.
1044 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 The main surface front separating oppressive heat/humidity to the south and cooler/stable air to the north is now draped over southern MI across the WI/IL border and continuing west through IA and NE. This front will continue to drift off to the southeast while a secondary cold front washes out over the area tonight into Sunday morning. This will allow for any remaining areas of showers/thunderstorms to move away to the east and to have a scouring out of moisture from the low-to-mid levels. A weak mid- level disturbance will try to push east late day tomorrow into tomorrow night, on the leading edge of an incoming ridge, so there will be little upper support and moisture available to produce any precipitation but a few isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out over central MN.
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Potential for narrow area of heavy rain today - Fair and much cooler weather this week Area of showers and thunderstorms currently across the central zones will gradually shift south this morning as sfc wave tracks along the cold front across the Ohio Valley.
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over the Southern Plains and an inverted trough over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Flow over South Texas was weak and from the east on the south side of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south-southeast through south-southwest. The subtropical ridge will drift to the west during this period and maintain control over our weather.
1039 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Have updated to remove rain chances along the highway 20 corridor tonight. Cooler, drier and more stable air has worked into the region. In the wake of significant morning convective line and modification of the lower level air mass, have seen isolated to scattered thunderstorms redevelop mainly south of a KMWM-KFSD-KANW line with residual elevated instability. Otherwise, clearing will begin to work southward, but a system moving from the Rockies into the central plains will begin to track northeast overnight, and could spread some precipitation back into the lower Missouri River valley later tonight. The ridge begins to break down and shift eastward, which will allow a slow return to warming late week and perhaps a chance of rainfall late week.
Westerly flow over the region is transitioning to a building ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will be a little warmer overnight and on Sunday.
Weakness and associated deeper moisture within elongated E- W upper ridge to remain west of CWA thru Mon.
This raises some uncertainty in high temps compared to recent days, otherwise much of NE OK will be within the thermal axis ahead of the advancing cold front this afternoon supportive of triple digit highs in a few locations. Cold front on track to pass through the forecast area tonight through mid day Monday.
Today looks to be similar to conds seen over the area on Sat as the region rmns under the influence of high pressure aloft. In addition to small rain chances over N AR, SE AR could also see some diurnal activity as energy aloft works arnd the ERN periphery of the upper ridge. For the remainder of the PD, the models cont to agree on the upper lvl pattern shift, with the upper high building NWD acrs the Rockies and NW flow aloft returning to the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air wl follow the FROPA beyond this PD.
Second, the 500mb height field for later today has the ridge axis shifted well west of the region and the 1000-500 mb thickness ridge south of the area. With temperatures a bit cooler, heat indices are now expected to be in the 95 to 100 degree range. With the upper pattern shifting and the heart of the ridge moving westward, the coming work week looks much cooler with a much less humid air mass settling over the region.
Medium Surface boundary to our south with a cooler northerly flow.
In the upper levels a weak inverted trough will be over the region. At the surface weak high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs will be in the lower 90s.
315 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Today and tonight: Today will be much like yesterday with a mid- level weakness in the ridge still located over our area. This in conjunction with the high moisture content in the air (PWs above 2 inches) may lead to some localized flash flooding issues. The storms will begin to dissipate with sunset this evening and will clear for an overall quiet night with lows falling into the low to mid 70s.
Given scattered convection as well as cloud cover and the placement of the boundary across east central Kansas this afternoon expect cooler temperatures with areas bear the Nebraska border in the lower 80s to around 90 along and south of Interstate 70 to high in the mid 90s from Garnett to Burlington. From Monday onward cooler temperatures are expected across the area with a northwest flow pattern aloft as a upper high ridge remains anchored over the Rockies.
The best chances for afternoon showers and storms will be across the north and the central, closer to the upper low. While shear will be moderate to strong across the south, it will be lacking across the northern third of the state where the higher coverage of storms is most likely. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 50s across the forecast area.
A cold front will approach KBVO toward 06Z, along with a chance of thunderstorms. expect lows tonight to get close to this mornings lows as not much change in the airmass is forecast until the cold front arrives Sunday evening. with a few spots getting into the lower 70s.
Pattern aloft changes tonight, bringing cooler and less humid conditions. Upper-level trough shifts into eastern Canada while a ridge builds in over the Rockies bringing northwest flow, and hence, drier air into the region. Ridge strengthens over the Rockies, while at the surface, a high pressure moves overhead by the beginning of the week. Upper ridge breaks down by the end of the week.
We will see cooler highs today, particularly for the northern zones in the wake of a passing front. Have broadbrushed slight to chance pops across the FA with the highest pops in the south.
Winds will become more northerly, for the most part, which will usher in some drier, and cooler, air.
/issued 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/ An upper level ridge of high pressure from the plains to the Ohio Valley will be the dominant weather feature through the weekend resulting in much above normal temperatures. By Monday increasing northeasterly flow aloft is forecast as the upper ridge retrogrades toward the Four Corners region and an upper level trough develops across the eastern half of the nation.
Tonight we clear out efficiently, and considering high pressure and light winds, we could see development of patchy fog. By Monday morning, high pressure moving south from Canada will be centered across the Dakotas with light northerly flow across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Aloft, longwave troughing will be in place across eastern North America, with a ridge across the western half of North America. Dewpoint temperatures will be quite comfortable for mid summer, easily in the low to mid 50s but potentially lower depending on daytime mixing depth.
This activity will continue to wane approaching sunrise, as forcing remains very limited under the ridge. Prefrontal warming should result in slightly warmer max temps this afternoon, especially along I44. Most solutions continue to reduce their QPF output through tomorrow with the cold front likely due to low mid to upper moisture and broad scale ascent. The cold front will be near the Red River by Mon 18Z and much drier air will follow it.
204 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An upper-level ridge will prevail today and begin to weaken Monday.
Otherwise, surface cold front has exited the area and now lies roughly from west central KS to extreme south central NEB to southeast IA. Seasonable lows tonight will give way then to highs about 5-10 degrees cooler tomorrow compared today outside northwest NEB and far north central NEB. Northwest flow prevails overhead aloft as a mid-level amplified ridge extends from the Four Corners region into eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan.
Cold front will affect mainly KWWR toward and after 21Z with northerly winds, and approaching KPNC and KCSM toward or just after 06Z. Veering back to southwest tomorrow but speeds are expected to be lower than those seen the past few days with broad lower level trough moving toward the region. Cold front expected to approach KWWR tomorrow afternoon with any convection west/north of terminals through end of this forecast. Behind the front we could see temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Monday. With the ridge near four corners, we will see only a modest gradual increase in temperatures mid to late week.
The south central Missouri Ozarks are a little cooler, but not much. Guidance continues to show a sfc cold front moving into central MO and southeast KS Sunday evening then moving through the rest of the forecast area Sunday night and early Monday. Cooler temperatures with a less humid modified Canadian air mass will move into the region with dry weather expected for much, if not all, of the rest of the week.
Tonight's lows will dip to the lower to middle 50s, with some patchy fog, especially over northwest Wisconsin where precipitation fell today. Drier conditions return for Sunday night as a large area of high pressure builds into the region across the Plains states. Dry and warm conditions are expected for much of the extended as a ridge builds to the west and sets up northwest flow over the Northland. A large dome of high pressure will be in place over the Plains states to start the week. There will be disturbances riding the edge of the high through midweek, but they look to be weak and not bring much in terms of rainfall.
The main feature of note will be another back door cold front expected to advance SW across the CWA over the next several hours, reaching the southern Laramie Range by around 21-00z. Convective activity could linger invof the Laramie Range well into the evening/overnight due to a combination of low-lvl upslope flow and convergence along the cold front which will stall & eventually retreat eastward as a warm front by Monday AM. The best chances for precipitation on Monday will remain over the higher terrain of the Laramie Range.
Sunday temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the low to mid 70s.
High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 100-105F.
Temps in the low to mid 90s will lead to heat indices in the 101-105 range during peak afternoon heating. Continuation of favorable open water conditions with ridge axis in proximity to the waters.
613 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 In the immediate short term/predawn hours, the surface cold front had pushed south of our cwa and was oriented from southwest to northeast KS as of 07Z. Cooler air with temps in the 60s were advecting south behind the boundary from northern Neb. Daytime temps will be quite a bit cooler than recent days in the post frontal airmass with readings ultimately dependent upon clouds and how long precip lingers. Aftn highs in the low/mid 70s should be common across south central Neb with some 80s possible in north central KS. The dry, cooler airmass remains across our region for the first part of the week (Mon/Tues) in between a western upper ridge over the Rockies and an eastern trough from Quebec through the Ohio valley.
Water vapor shows upper low tracking east along the MT/SASK border with upper ridge building into the Pac NW. Convective complex associated with the upper low is taking shape near the MT/WY/SD border. At the surface, cold front is pushing southward into southeast MT. Convective complex will translate east/southeast today as upper low continues its eastward movement along the Canadian border. High temps mainly in the 60s to lower 70s with reinforcing shot of cooler air arriving. Upper ridge will slowly build eastward the next few days and bring generally dry and warm conditions to the region. Ridge is still expected to break down midweek with quasi zonal flow through the end of the week into the weekend.
High pressure ridging will lead to warmer and drier conditions today with highs about 10 degrees above Saturdayâs readings.
342 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 The 00Z H500 hand analysis map showed the subtrop high suppressed to our South over New Mexico with a fairly bland upper pattern over the lower half of the CONUS. As expected this time of year the storm track is in the high latitudes but changes are coming here. Both of these areas will dip southward through Monday and allow the for an amplification of the ridge back along the Rockies. Low level moisture does look to push West behind the front as is settles over the lower portion of the divide.
743 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Aviation - Potential for narrow area of heavy rain today - Fair and much cooler weather this week Area of showers and thunderstorms currently across the central zones will gradually shift south this morning as sfc wave tracks along the cold front across the Ohio Valley.
632 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: The patchy fog in south Mississippi and the low stratus deck in east Mississippi this morning will both mix out in about an hour or two. /10/ Today and tonight: Today will be much like yesterday with a mid- level weakness in the ridge still located over our area. This in conjunction with the high moisture content in the air (PWs above 2 inches) may lead to some localized flash flooding issues. The storms will begin to dissipate with sunset this evening and will clear for an overall quiet night with lows falling into the low to mid 70s.
419 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Overview: Modest WNW-NW flow aloft will prevail over the region, on the northeast periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Rockies.
The ridge has started to build over the Great Basin and flow has started to become more southwesterly aloft over NW CA.
High pressure will strengthen across the region through early in the week.
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 A cold front sits just south of the forecast area early this morning, stretching from southern Iowa into northern Illinois. With more sunshine in store today, the northern half of the forecast area will be a tad warmer than yesterday, while the southern half (now behind the cold front) will be a tad cooler. Upper level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS while upper troughing becomes more established over the east.
621 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 An upper-level ridge will prevail today and begin to weaken Monday.
523 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019 The 00Z H500 hand analysis map showed the subtrop high suppressed to our South over New Mexico with a fairly bland upper pattern over the lower half of the CONUS. As expected this time of year the storm track is in the high latitudes but changes are coming here. Both of these areas will dip southward through Monday and allow the for an amplification of the ridge back along the Rockies. Low level moisture does look to push West behind the front as is settles over the lower portion of the divide.
Also the higher level cirrus should pull east. Medium Surface boundary to our south with a cooler northerly flow.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but should remain west of area terminals over the higher terrain. Late in the forecast period, a cold front will push toward the area, with a pre-frontal northerly wind shift expected at HOB after 22/06Z, and FROPA at all terminals after 22/12Z. WV imagery shows the upper ridge pretty much where it has been the past week--blanketing the srn CONUS and beyond. Another round of spotty convection is anticipated over the higher terrain in upslope flow. To the north, the PacNW trough of 24 hrs ago has moved along the U. This will split the ridge in two, w/the wrn half re-centering over the Four Corners, and lingering there thru the extended. Accompanying the MS trough will be a cold front, which models bring into the CWA at or shortly after 12Z Mon.
Latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery is showing clear to partly cloudy skies and temps already in the low 80's. High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge over northern Florida.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge pretty much where it has been the past week--blanketing the srn CONUS and beyond. Another round of spotty convection is anticipated over the higher terrain in upslope flow. To the north, the PacNW trough of 24 hrs ago has moved along the U. This will split the ridge in two, w/the wrn half re-centering over the Four Corners, and lingering there thru the extended. Accompanying the MS trough will be a cold front, which models bring into the CWA at or shortly after 12Z Mon.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to most terminal sites during the period. This activity will continue to wane approaching sunrise, as forcing remains very limited under the ridge. Prefrontal warming should result in slightly warmer max temps this afternoon, especially along I44. Most solutions continue to reduce their QPF output through tomorrow with the cold front likely due to low mid to upper moisture and broad scale ascent. The cold front will be near the Red River by Mon 18Z and much drier air will follow it.
/issued 317 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019/ Broad stacked ridging remains over the region with light SE wind flow regime to combine with W coast seabreeze and diurnal heating for another round of scattered to numerous afternoon into evening thunderstorms today into Monday.
The center of the upper high will continue to slowly move toward the west today. Highs today will again be close to the 100 degrees mark; that's 4 to 5 degrees warmer than our average highs, for this time of year.
A short wave trough moving across northern/northeast Montana overnight has induced a very moist airmass northward into the eastern half of the forecast area (mainly east of Yellowstone County). Somewhat cooler and drier air builds in behind the shower and thunderstorms by afternoon. Amplified ridge builds into the tonight and Monday boosting temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s for all but the far eastern portion of SE Montana. Moisture will still be available under the ridge for scattered afternoon/evening mountain based thunderstorms, but these storms will struggle to push very far off the mountains as dry low level air combines with increasing mid level temperatures to cap convective potential over the plains.
MLCape was near 2000 J/Kg (mixing the lowest 50mb), which is somewhat above average, with 0-3 km MLCape of 100 j/kg. Given the fairly juiced sounding and the possible presence of a wave remnant in the area, will keep the high chance PoPs in the afternoon forecast package - mainly due to the potential for any boundary to initiate convection.
With the upper trough remaining deep and offshore, moisture continues to feed into the region at the ridge levels and above into Monday.
The door to monsoon moisture will begin to open on Monday as high pressure shifts toward the Four Corners.
159 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. The eastern portion of the ridge extending across TX will recede as a trough strengthens over the Eastern portion of the country the next couple of days. A cold front is set to blow into the area Monday and drop temps below normal for the rest of the coming work week.
Sfc ridging will continue through tonight, allowing for much drier air to push into the region. PAC NW trough re-loading will ensue this week, supporting downstream ridging over the Rockies. Forecast models continue to break the ridge down by mid week per ejecting impulses from the PAC NW trough.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Sprinkles and light showers are slowly spreading across southern Iowa this afternoon, while a few thunderstorms are sinking across central and eastern Nebraska, all in conjunction with a pair of mid-level troughs swinging down across the region. These troughs will phase and push down into northern Missouri tonight, resulting in a gradual end to the light rain in our south by midnight. As the aforementioned trough swings through tonight it will help push a large, cool surface area of high pressure from the Dakotas down across Iowa and surrounding states bringing several days of quiet, pleasant, and dry weather to the area in stark contrast to what we experienced last week.
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Cooler (by 10 degrees) this week compared last week - Marine hazards Southern Near Shore Monday PM - Isolated inland thunderstorms Tue PM - Next more widespread convection Sunday 28th /Monday 29th As we have been saying the longwave trough which was over the western CONUS but more so in western Canada will reposition itself due to a deepening system in the Gulf of Alaska early this week but gets recharged by a much more significant system from eastern Russia by the middle of this coming week. That forces a large scale western ridge and allows a closed upper low, currently near the North Pole to head south to Hudson Bay by late in the week.
A cold front will begin to move through Monday morning, brining rain showers and a northerly wind shift across northern portions of the state. Today looks to be similar to conds seen over the area on Sat as the region rmns under the influence of high pressure aloft. In addition to small rain chances over N AR, SE AR could also see some diurnal activity as energy aloft works arnd the ERN periphery of the upper ridge. For the remainder of the PD, the models cont to agree on the upper lvl pattern shift, with the upper high building NWD acrs the Rockies and NW flow aloft returning to the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air wl follow the FROPA beyond this PD.
Lastly, added VCSH with TSRA prob30s late in the cycle for all sites as a trough/front approaches from the west.
With cooler air in place and reinforced by 850 hPa high pressure in the northern and central Plains, a cool day will prevail tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Meanwhile, lows tonight and tomorrow night will be largely slightly below normal most areas with lows reading in the lower to mid 50s.
A trough of low pressure will move southeast across the area tonight. While not overly confident that this system will produce any showers, it is hard to ignore that this trough is currently producing some light radar returns over west-central Minnesota. On Monday, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the region, so it looks to be another dry day across the region. With 850 mb temperatures about 3C cooler, high temperatures will be primarily in 70s.
Heaviest rain is still expected east of I-65 where the highest PWATs and lift are focused.