Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE PRIMARILY NW OF I-65 LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE FA FROM PARIS TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.
As a deep upper low currently over southwest Minnesota tracks slowly eastward over the next 24 hours, clouds will spread back into central Illinois and some light precipitation will be possible across the north. Models are in good agreement with the track of the low and its expected QPF across the area.
433 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
AND TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING MAKING FOR A WET SNOW THAT IS HARD TO BLOW AROUND ANYWAY. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE LOW. CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EWD/NEWD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVEN INTO TUE NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKS NEWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NM BY SAT. GIVEN TRACK OF UPPER LOW. EXPECT VFR/MVFR MIX TO CONTINUE AT KOMA/KLNK THRU ABOUT LATE MORNING BEFORE RE APPEARANCE OF MVFR CIGS ON BACKSIDE OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND PREVAILING THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG INL BORDER AREA WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
236 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 Westerly mid level flow today in advance of a broad mid level trof axis reflects a loose MSLP gradient and some low level thermal ridging. As said trof axis swings thru a loosely identifiable Pacific front will advance Wed AM.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO IOWA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLANKETING THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY.
1249 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
940 PM MST MON NOV 30 2015 DRY ACROSS THE REGION AND MUCH COLDER WEST OF THE DIVIDE SO SEEING DRAINAGE WINDS PICK UP SUPPORTED BY LEESIDE TROUGHING.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 50S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN U.
355 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP.
315 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP.
328 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE CURRENT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. BUT RAP SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATE FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO CHANGE MENTION OF "80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW" IN HELENA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS THAT MAY BE CONDENSED OUT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG THERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HELENA VALLEY, INCLUDING THE KHLN TERMINAL, WHERE FREEZING FOG WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THROUGH 03Z AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 21Z.
HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR BARELY BELOW FREEZING.
UPSTREAM STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE GETTING NUDGED EWD NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO SRN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REACHING 7-8 DEGREES AS AREA OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW.
A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER CEILINGS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW /TROWAL/ FAVORS SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OF THE PINE RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. ON TUESDAY THE WEAKENING TROWAL SHIFTS EAST OVER BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. AS THE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN CIG HEIGHTS UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY WHEN THEY COULD DRIFT UP TO THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA FROM THE NW. AND A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE TRAILING BEHIND.
1206 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
1135 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING ACROSS AREA. THIS IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE.
20Z water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low over southwest NEB, which pretty much dominates the central U. At the surface, an area of low pressure had formed over eastern NEB with a trough of low pressure extended southeast through the Ozarks. For tonight the models are in good agreement the upper level low and its surface reflection will drift north towards southern MN. Towards the end of the weekend a mid level low pressure cuts off from the main flow over the southern Rockies and eventually lifts out over the plains.
REMAINING CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA IS SITTING OVER NEBRASKA ZONES AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD AS UPPER LOW HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. SNOW IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN BEHIND. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TRAVELING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW AND WRAPAROUND CLOUDS MOVE IN.
352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 AREAS OF FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING. WILL KEEP FREEZING FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 10 AM. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH INTO TUESDAY.
306 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 WITH LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL US TODAY. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NEB/SOUTHERN SD. AN 850MB COLD AIR POCKET WAS NOTED FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD ID/WA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW. CWA WILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY TO BELLEVUE TO RED OAK AND WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO THE NEB/SD BORDER.
1015 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND IT ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE FREEZING FOG IS MOST DENSE. /ISSUED 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NAM FORECAST TRENDS ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LOWERING CEILING TRENDS TO THE WEST OF SAT. AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE SEEING SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LVL CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ABATES DUE TO A WEAK FRONT SLIDING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW-LVL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR PER NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN AS WELL ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW GIVEN LESS LOW-LVL CLOUDS BUT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
424 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. /ISSUED 1015 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND IT ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE FREEZING FOG IS MOST DENSE. /ISSUED 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARHASLL. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING ISSUES TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN.
WE WILL BE A POSITION IN WHICH THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER ALABAMA WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTENSIFIES AND FINALLY BEGINS TO WRAP UP AND SLIDE EASTWARD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER ANTICIPATE THE LOWER CEILINGS SO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF ANY LOWERING CEILINGS UNTIL 10 TO 12Z AT THE EARLIEST. 88 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
/issued 958 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ Temperatures continue to cool this evening, with most of the CWA in the low to mid 40s. The limiting factor for fog development will be the high clouds streaming across the region. Minor changes were made to the min temperatures tonight, lowering a few areas down to near the freezing mark.
1133 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH AN 850MB WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. 18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KOMA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
This has kept the entire forecast area above freezing with no impact from the winter weather that's being experienced to our north.
1237 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 STATIONARY FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE GOOD SIDE OF FREEZING AND SHOULD KEEP THAT TREND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO COOL. EVENTUALLY WITH HAVE MIXED PHASES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IA WITH SUB SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THEN BOTH BEING COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH. BROAD UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE STATE.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE TIED TO A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SD AND CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND ANOTHER JUST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. BOTH THE HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW BAND SETTING UP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT.
Southwesterly flow will continue aloft across the Tri-State region ahead of a large upper low moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an early morning subjective analysis placed a mostly stationary front through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. If nothing else, there will likely be a fair amount of cloud cover which will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the past few days.
/ISSUED 1135 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING ACROSS AREA. THIS IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
Radar mosaic shows light shower activity in the warm sector out ahead of a developing/approaching cold front, which will make passage tonight. Late tonight, cold front incoming will be making passage and pushing bulk moisture to the east tmrw morning.
320 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SNOW PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
417 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
This will help to bring in decent mixing today and allow temperatures to warm up into the low 40s to low 50s.
DUE TO REDUCED VIS/CIGS FROM THE AREAS OF -RA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
Any fog chances should retreat to the north tonight as the warm front moves north across the area. Temperatures will not change by more than a few degrees the rest of the afternoon and should hold steady this evening before starting to rise after midnight, mainly along and east of a KSDF/KBWG line, as southwest winds bring in warmer air. Highs Tuesday may come in the morning hours, as a cold front coming through will steady or bring falling temperatures through the afternoon.
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW INCREASES.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS RESULTED IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND LOWER 90S IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH RIDGING ALOFT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE EAST COAST.
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) High pressure aloft centered over East Texas will remain the dominant influence across the region through Thursday. Skies will be clear through the period, with lows tonight in the lower 70s and highs Thursday mainly in the upper 90s. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) An upper level high pressure ridge will control the weather across Texas for the next several days.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH A WEAKENED RIDGE ALOFT.
AN OBJECTIVE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED WHAT COULD BE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO GET STRONGER CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
1201 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
21Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA, CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS.
THESE DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE LOCATED WITHIN PATCHES OF MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE LEFTOVER FROM THE SPREADING OUT OF THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EAST OF THAT SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, EXTENDS BACK INTO ILLINOIS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED BREAK FROM RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AS THE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD THE LOW, AIDED BY 25-35KT 850MB WINDS, WILL HELP BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AFTER 09Z/4AM TO AREAS WEST OF PEORIA TO JACKSONVILLE. BY 12Z/7AM THURSDAY, THE LOW SHOULD REACH WESTERN IOWA, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO WISCONSIN. THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS IL. A RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO ILLINOIS.
FOR TONIGHT, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE HAYS AREA.
TONIGHT: CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO BE MUCH STRONGER.
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW STORMS CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER.
804 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LOW OVER SW CANADA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
1254 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
If storms do develop it will occur on the backside of current storms across north central Kansas where temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s and dewpoints have risen under WAA.
729 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RIDGE RUNNING MCS'S WELL TO OUR NORTH AND HEADING EASTWARD INTO GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwest flow over the Ohio Valley, as a strong ridge dominates the central CONUS. For tonight, surface ridging will slide into the Great Lakes region, exerting its influence on the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60s. On Thursday the high will shift to the northeast of the region, which will allow for some weak southerly return flow. This flow coupled with the expected sunshine will help temperatures climb into the 80s, with some upper 80s possible in the typically warmer spots. A trough will pass to the north of the region Thursday night, but may just pass close enough to bring some clouds into portions of southern IN and northern KY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL DRIVE SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS THIS WAY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER THAN SOME LATE NIGHT FOG UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP GOOD FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SHORT TERM IS INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALOFT. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TIME. SO TOO WILL THE COMPASS OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR OVERHEAD.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS PUSHING RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO TENNESSEE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND STRENGTHEN BY THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH CASCADES THURSDAY.
BUT WITH THE NEW INFO IT SEEMS THE HIGH INSTABILITY COULD INDEED OVERCOME CAPPING AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING RESERVATIONS FROM EARLIER. ALSO EXPECT SOME EXTREME LIGHTNING RATES FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
923 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN INITIAL LEAD SHORT WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TOMORROW AND BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEP MOIST LAYER TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL AND NRN WI. TRAILING TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND AND TO THE NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS.
630 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THE SHORT TERM IS INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALOFT. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TIME. SO TOO WILL THE COMPASS OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR OVERHEAD.
NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE COAST.
717 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS IS KEEPING STATION. A LOW AND TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES DIPS INTO THE SE U.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PROGRESSIVELY BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
1155 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE THE SHORT TERM IS INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALOFT. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TIME. SO TOO WILL THE COMPASS OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR OVERHEAD.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM TEXAS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME BUMPING TROUGHINESS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE. WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL DIMINISH THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A WEAK REFLECTION OF THE DEPARTING TROF KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM DRIFTING ANY FARTHER N THAN THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRY TO MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. EVENTUALLY "MIXING IT UP" WITH THE REMNANT TROF TO EFFECTIVELY COLLAPSE THE REGIONAL PGRAD THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL FL AS A DEEP TROF E OF THE APPLICHIANS PUSHES OFFSHORE AND LIFTS INTO THE N ATLC.