Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING WESTERLY ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIFTS CLOSE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT THEN DISSIPATES ON MONDAY LEAVING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015/ (Today and tonight) A few thunderstorms have developed early this morning across the Northwest Hill Country along what appears to be the remnants of a cold front which moved through the area yesterday. The persistent upper air pattern with an amplified ridge to the west and a trough to the east continues, with generally northerly flow across west Texas.
101 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. TAX SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE WESTWARD.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING TO THE REGION.
PROVIDING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. ANOTHER PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL PINWHEEL DOWN THE MEAN H5 TROF LATER TONITE INTO TMRW. AS SEVERAL ADDITONAL SPOKES OF H5 ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF. TROUGH WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.
A COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. THE UPPER FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE NWLY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE.
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY.
WITH RIDGING OUT WEST. AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. TO AROUND 60 ON THE RIDGES. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-64. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND WE LOSE HEATING.
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GOOD SOAKING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
THE 70 KT NW JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISO-T WITHIN THE HIGHER AREAS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS THAT TAP INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH BACK EAST A BIT.
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS TRYING TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION IS LIKELY STALLED OUT NOW.
606 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME WEST KENTUCKY.
AS OF 2 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ABOUT CLEAR OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL IN BARBOUR COUNTY AND EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS IN THE 50S IN THE NORTH BUT THOSE WOULD BE THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN U. A WEAK UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/128W, WILL SHIFT TO THE OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY NOCTURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST. A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN.
1149 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE NE PLAINS MAY KEEP ACTIVITY GOING A BIT LONGER. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE WORKED OVER SOME DUE TO COLD POOLING/OUTFLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST NORTHWEST OF NM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER UT. LOOK FOR A WEAK UPTICK IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL LAY OVER SOMEWHAT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW SOME FLATTENING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. PLAN ON SCATTERED SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
AT 18Z, THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF OUR CWA, WITH OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A WARM, MOIST, TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO MID WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA. TERRAIN WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE LOCATIONS THAT DO NO SEE A LATE NIGHT SHOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S. BUT COULD HOLD A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THANKS TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. MAINTAINED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGHING REACHES THE GULF COAST THROUGH THU THEN BEGINS TO EASE NORTHWARD. IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE INITIALLY ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN THAT LIFTS NORTH TO FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEYS SLOWLY TREKS NORTHWARD.
827 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 429 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AREA WIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC AS THE UPPER TROF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
WILL SEE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
933 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FEW MINOR BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS TO BE FILLING BACK IN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MAIN FOCUS IS TRYING TO TRACK WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH FLOW. MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A FEW MORE FLURRIES TONIGHT.
High pressure will build in tonight and through Thursday. Couple of weak upper level troughs expected to move through region into the weekend.
429 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AREA WIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROF IS SHUNTED EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
Have therefore trended warmer, but will still be quite cool with cooler highs today.
/issued 524 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ Having a difficult time getting the low clouds and fog out of the KABI area this afternoon. Lows tonight will again dip below freezing for most of West Central Texas, especially along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, where lows in the upper 20s look likely. For Thursday, another weak cold front will bring winds from the north to West Central Texas, along with cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs, mainly in the lower to mid 40s, look reasonable for tomorrow, given surface cold air advection and limited sunshine.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. COOLER AIR IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY, WITH MID-30S TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
633 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THIS EVE NEAR THE RIDGES AS RELATIVELY-SATURATED AIR IS ADVECTED UPSLOPE BY A MODEST WNWLY WIND. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIDGES. OTHER THAN LINGER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES IN THE MORNING. DRY THURSDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO NV AND ID. A DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS CO TODAY HAS PRODUCED INTERMITTENT STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS WELL AS ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS. TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TRIES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER NV LATE TOMORROW. WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO PERSIST. THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CONTDVD MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. AND TEENS TO 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING ON THE PLAINS WITH MANY IF NOT ALL AREAS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. SUBSIDENT REGION FOLLOWS AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOWER DECK OF THE STRATUS LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS.
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO LOWER 50S TOWARD TUPELO.
Abundance standing water from recent flood event likely to result in at least some areas of freezing fog. Bridges/roads near standing water most at risk.
A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THEN WEST ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
841 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 ISSUANCE OF FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OK/N TX.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS ON THE TN-KY STATE LINE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. NEW YEAR'S EVE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE STARS IN THE SKY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CONTINENTAL U. WHEREAS HIGH COUNTRY MTN AND VALLEY LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGS COLDER DUE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. CWA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLDER AIRMASS AND N-NWLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL NC. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
556 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
VFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT GLH/GWO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.
ISSUED 342 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND LOW PRESSURE AS IT PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER ABOUT NOON TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES CRASHES INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS (DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEI). COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DROP DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. BUT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP H925 TEMPS TO AROUND -10C AND H850 TEMPS TO -15C. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND BREEZY START TO THE NEW YEAR.
THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME ON THURSDAY AS A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN.
954 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE FA SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COLDER BUT STILL CLOSE TO AVERAGE. COLD FRONT TO CROSS FA TOMORROW HOWEVER LITTLE OVERALL COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH FEATURE.
With model soundings showing these low clouds scattering out during the day, expect temperatures to be a couple of degrees warmer with highs into the low/mid 30s. New Years Eve looking like a cold one across the area, as the broad upper trof slides across the state toward the morning hours. Subsidence behind the wave should clear out the clouds and make for a mostly sunny but cool New Years Day with highs in the low to middle 30s. The split upper trof leaves Kansas between the systems with milder high pressure trying to nose in from the northwest of all places, but the clear skies and light winds look to drop lows into the teens to near 20 in the southeast counties.
THE PANHANDLES ARE UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MAINLY HOW FAR WEST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL BE ABLE TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AND THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. GENERAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING KEEPING SOUTHERLY OR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS DISLODGED. AND BROAD TROUGHING APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
Changes to forecast reflect more persistent clouds and warmer lows in areas that remain overcast. Freezing fog remains a possibility just about anywhere but not expecting widespread issues at this time. Abundance standing water from recent flood event likely to result in at least some areas of freezing fog. Bridges/roads near standing water most at risk.
DEEP RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT EASTWARD TOMORROW.
OVERALL UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
850 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
542 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS ZONAL FLOW SETS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS. IT WILL PROBABLY BE A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
ALSO NOT SURE HOW LONG IT WILL STAY CLEAR AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY SATURATED IN THE LOWEST 3KFT. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS ALONG WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO LOWER 50S TOWARD TUPELO.
945 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
SO THE LOWERING SNOW CHANCES IN CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. BROAD TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE. BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG RIDGES OR UNDER NARROW BANDS.
436 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 THE PANHANDLES ARE UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MAINLY HOW FAR WEST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL BE ABLE TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AND THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. GENERAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING KEEPING SOUTHERLY OR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS DISLODGED. AND BROAD TROUGHING APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
/ISSUED 344 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING TO THE EAST, WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS.
The flow aloft will remain fairly flat overhead, but an upper trof over the Dakotas will be kicked out into the Great Lakes, and heights will gradually fall through the short-term period.
533 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 LAYER OF IFR STRATUS JUST EAST OF CDS IS ALREADY FOUND SPREADING WEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT DENSE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. SAME IFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO PVW AND LBB AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SLOW RECOVERIES TO MVFR BY MIDDAY FOLLOWING A DRY COLD FRONT.
BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OK/N TX.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH. TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB 5 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LOWS. GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BUT HAVE STILL STUCK WITH NUMBERS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
524 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 /00Z TAFS/ Having a difficult time getting the low clouds and fog out of the KABI area this afternoon. Lows tonight will again dip below freezing for most of West Central Texas, especially along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, where lows in the upper 20s look likely. For Thursday, another weak cold front will bring winds from the north to West Central Texas, along with cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs, mainly in the lower to mid 40s, look reasonable for tomorrow, given surface cold air advection and limited sunshine.
WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS PROBABLY MORE OF AN ARTIFACT OF FRESH SNOW COVER FOR NEARLY EVERY LOCATION. TO COOL DOWN THE LOWS BELOW CONSENSUS.
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED ALONG THIS CLEARING ZONE WITH LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWING BEHIND. WE ARE PUTTING IN A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOW CLOUDS, AND IN CASE WE SEE SOME BINOVC DEVELOP TONIGHT.
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 40S TUE-WED. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD MID-WEEK. TERMINALS THAT SEE TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG.
SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND SNOW COVERED GROUND ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL BRING VALLEY INVERSION CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
The remainder of the 7 day period appears mainly dry with only a slight warming trend to temperatures close to normal for early January (lows in the upper teens to around 20 and highs in the lows 40s). North to northwest winds behind the trough will help sweep the low level moisture out of western Kansas.
857 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE PINCHED OFF TAIL SECTION FORMS AN UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR WEST.
HAVE ALSO EXPANDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING AS A SPOTTER REPORTED A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES IN THE PARK FALLS AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NW FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
634 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT WINTRY MIX TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREA OF CONFLUENCE MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH/WAVE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS CAN EXPECT SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS TREND CONTINUES EASTWARD AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z THURSDAY, AT WHICH TIME THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/WAVE WILL BE EXITING EASTERN VT. AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH, SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY.