Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
524 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 The warm air advection and frontogenetic forcing which caused overnight snow and freezing rain continues to move eastward this morning. Freezing rain has largely ended as cold air advection in the mid-levels continues to erode the warm nose in temperature profiles. Locations from Brookings to Sioux Falls to Spirit Lake will also see light snow accumulations; however, the higher amounts remain in southern Minnesota. A lack of any warm nose and mid-level saturation of the dendritic growth zone should keep freezing rain from being a concern. Thursday will be dry with high temperatures struggling to get above freezing.
410 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Early morning water vapor imagery showed an elongated trough across the Canadian Provinces with clipper system beginning to dig into British Columbia and Alberta. Further to the south, a weak trough was moving inland towards the Baja Peninsula with ridging downstream across New Mexico and Texas. As of 09Z, surface observations indicated the cold front was pushing through Central Nebraska, generally extending from Sioux City,IA to Grand Island, NE and extending back to the west towards Torrington, WY. Today we will see one more mild day ahead of the incoming cold front. Temperatures will rise into the 50s to near 60 before the cold front pushes through later today with temperatures quickly falling behind the front. Any precipitation should be winding down by Thursday morning as high pressure, and those colder temperatures, surge in.
An upper ridge of high pressure will remain in in the area through at least the weekend. A weak upper trough is moving over the eastern periphery of the upper ridge this morning, bringing some high clouds but having little effect on the stable conditions at the surface. We've issued a Dense Fog Advisory again in the Umpqua Valley through 9am to highlight the low visibility and hazardous travel conditions.
258 AM MST Wed Nov 6 2019 Current surface map places cold front across Nebraksa into central Wyoming. A period of light freezing drizzle possible through the morning across southern portions of the forecast.
538 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Breezy and warmer weather will be on tap across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures top out in the 50s. Two distinct areas of forcing will develop tonight as a strong cold front drops into the region. As the cold front advances southeastward, brisk northerly winds in its wake will usher a much colder airmass into central Illinois on Thursday.
613 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 High pressure moving from the Ohio River Valley to near the mid-Atlantic Coast will direct dry air into the forecast area through tonight. A strong cold front will approach Thursday and move through the forecast area Thursday night bringing showers.
629 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 High pressure moving from the Ohio River Valley to near the mid-Atlantic Coast will direct dry air into the forecast area through tonight. A strong cold front will approach Thursday and move through the forecast area Thursday night bringing showers.
Midlevel high pressure currently centered over the northeastern Pacific is expected to track easterly then linger directly over the west coast for the next few days. The shift to offshore winds today will bring mild drying and gustiness across area ridges through tomorrow. Meanwhile, this persistent ridge continues to suppress any chances of rain for the foreseeable future. The coast remains shrouded in low clouds and fog this morning, while synoptic scale subsidence associated with the high pressure aloft will continue to amplify marine stratus production at least through tonight.
Copious Pacific moisture has been streaming in, as evidenced on water vapor imagery, and as the upper low, currently poised over the northern Baja moves further east today, more Gulf moisture will add to the mix. The NAM is very bullish in bringing in a swath of freezing rain across our much of our northwestern counties during the morning and into the early afternoon Thursday. Still, there a quite a few models that keep temps warm enough to only produce a rain/freezing rain or even a rain/freezing drizzle type configuration. The only concern would be anything left on roads freezing overnight, though clouds may be slow to clear that night, keeping us from plummeting as originally thought.
404 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Return flow will get started once again tonight into Thursday ahead of the next cold front. North winds will start before the air mass change but once these winds increase to around 10kt or better, the actual cold front will have moved through.
High pressure builds in later tonight for clearing from north to south. High pressure moves overhead Thursday night.
A strong cold front will pass through Oklahoma and north Texas tonight and early Thursday, bringing much colder and drier air behind it.
High pressure will move in behind the front with plenty of cold air advection. Tonight should be very cold with clear skies and light winds as the high pressure moves into the Dakotas. Western ridge begins to flatten out after midweek for slightly more downslope flow and warming temperatures into the end of the week.
Easterly winds have ushered in cooler air overnight and will slowly decrease through midday. Overall, today will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Thursday will have the ridge building over the region once again, and it will return to slightly above normal temperatures in the afternoon.
403 AM MST Wed Nov 6 2019 Current surface map places cold front across Nebraksa into central Wyoming. A period of light freezing drizzle possible through the morning across southern portions of the forecast.
Clear and sunny skies will persist into the afternoon, with winds veering more southerly throughout the day, allowing us to enjoy one last "warm" day with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 60s. By mid- afternoon, cloud cover will begin increasing over the region as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Updated at 250 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 A chilly rain is expected on Thursday as a cold front makes its way steadily from NW to SE across the Ohio Valley.
A low pressure system will bring a scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of northern Arizona through this evening. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low center near Yuma at 3 am. Progs are in good agreement moving the low center and its cold pool slowly northeastward through this evening.
Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to gain strength across the nations interior. The cold front will clear our southeastern most counties by Thu evening. Temperatures on Thursday morning will start out mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Rain shower chances will return on Mon as a strong cold front approaches.
Rain Potential Continues with Another Cold Front. Another cold front on Thursday will add to the mix supporting rain. Although the best upper dynamics will be moving farther north and east, cold air near the surface, associated with this front, will help lift the warmer moist air. As the cold front progresses south, across West Central Texas, Thursday, the precipitation mode will likely become more showery, as the warmer air glides up and over the cold air near the surface.
Winds will become gusty and northerly behind a cold front near the end of the forecast, reaching WWR by 04Z Thursday. A strong cold front will pass through Oklahoma and north Texas tonight and early Thursday, bringing much colder and drier air behind it.
557 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 High pressure moving from the Ohio River Valley to near the mid-Atlantic Coast will direct dry air into the forecast area through tonight. A strong cold front will approach Thursday and move through the forecast area Thursday night bringing showers.
A weak dry cold frontal passage this afternoon will keep temperatures a few degrees lower than yesterday.
329 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Showers will return Thursday with a cold front before transitioning to snow in the afternoon. Dry weather will continue into the evening as high pressure exits east.
The cold front looks to arrive across our northern terminals just outside this current TAF period, but showers and some isolated thunderstorms ahead of the main wind shift cannot be ruled out.
926 AM MST Wed Nov 6 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south of the region, with high pressure centered over southwest SK. Upper level analysis shows large trough over much of the central and eastern US, with low over southeastern Hudson Bay. There has been some freezing drizzle mixing in across some areas from northeast WY to southwest SD as well. Lingering areas of light freezing drizzle should taper off by midday. Current surface map places cold front across Nebraksa into central Wyoming. A period of light freezing drizzle possible through the morning across southern portions of the forecast.
Rain in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel will likely keep temperatures a bit cooler than expected, and rain is advancing a bit faster than expected. Heavier is still expected to overspread most of the the Midsouth, especially along and north of I-40 later this evening and overnight ahead of a strong cold front. A cold front will start to approach the region this morning reaching northern Missouri by late this afternoon.
1017 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread this afternoon as isentropic lift increases across the region in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move into the region Tonight.
A subtle low level trough extending from the Atlantic into Brevard and Osceola counties should be a focus for a higher coverage of afternoon showers and possibly a few storms across northern and central sections. Highs will range from the lower 80s Volusia coast to the mid 80s interior and from Brevard south along the coast. High pressure ridging to the north still promoting an onshore flow increasing to 10-15 kts today.
237 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 An upper trough is over the northern half of the country with an upper low over southwest Arizona. The upper low will move closer to West Texas and southeast New Mexico and increase lift across the area. A cold front associated with the trough over the northern half of the country will begin to move into the area tonight and Thursday morning. Rain will continue across the area tomorrow with temperatures dropping behind the cold front.
The NAM continues to bring significantly cooler, drier air into the region starting this evening from Montana. As a result, the consensus and the official forecast is warmer than the NAM/MET guidance.
208 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Taking a look at current conditions around 20Z, 1041mb high pressure was set up over southern Saskatchewan and eastern MT. Plenty of cumulus clouds have developed in the clear air across ND, along with lake enhanced/river enhanced streamers potentially with light snow or flurries as cold air moves over the warmer water. Expect light winds will filter in at the surface as the high shifts across central SD by 06Z Thursday. Warm air advection will take hold during the day Thursday as the high sinks into IA and 850mb temperatures rebound to 0 to -12C (warmest southwest of Pierre). While surface temperatures will remain similar across eastern SD and west central MN, temperatures will end up about 10 degrees warmer Thursday over Central SD (topping out in the 30s).
1031 AM MST Wed Nov 6 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south of the region, with high pressure centered over southwest SK. Upper level analysis shows large trough over much of the central and eastern US, with low over southeastern Hudson Bay. There has been some freezing drizzle mixing in across some areas from northeast WY to southwest SD as well. Lingering areas of light freezing drizzle should taper off by midday. Current surface map places cold front across Nebraksa into central Wyoming. A period of light freezing drizzle possible through the morning across southern portions of the forecast.
An upper level trough across Arizona will track across northern New Mexico overnight then across the Texas Panhandle Thursday. A strong cold front will move into the Big Country early Thursday morning, clearing the Interstate 10 corridor by mid to late morning. Gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph along with much colder temperatures are forecast behind the cold front.
Rain in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel will likely keep temperatures a bit cooler than expected, and rain is advancing a bit faster than expected. Heavier is still expected to overspread most of the the Midsouth, especially along and Noth of I-40 later this evening and overnight ahead of a strong cold front. A cold front will start to approach the region this morning reaching northern Missouri by late this afternoon.
/Issued 1017 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread this afternoon as isentropic lift increases across the region in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move into the region Tonight.
An approaching cold front will bring rapidly deteriorating conditions after 09Z with rain and IFR cigs/vsbys spreading across the area.
15 inches, and the low of 0. 08 inches measured on the morning of the 12th was the lowest ever recorded on that date. 15, but this still is near the lowest every recorded at MPX (0. 13 is the lowest). Today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, and Friday will be roughly 5 degrees warmer than today. Dry weather is expected on both days, with warmer temperatures to follow for the foreseeable future. Models show warmer air moving across the region from the high plains to the west. There will be a couple cold fronts that move through the region.
Current surface analysis reveals the high pressure center is just beginning to nudge into central KY, with clear skies and calm winds being observed across the area. Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM EDT/8 AM CDT, with temperatures already dipping into the low to mid 30s across the northern half of KY and southern IN, while south-central KY remains a little warmer in the upper 30s. Progressive upper trof will drag a cold front through the Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night.
Dry northerly flow aloft through Friday with an upper level ridge offshore.
-Kredensor A cold front will exit the region tonight, with some lingering showers expected to persist through tonight in its wake. Temperatures remain below normal on Thursday, but warmer air returns to the region for one day on Friday.
Moderation to the airmass expected today in terms of temperatures with the Atlanta metro making it to the lower 70s. Southerly flow developing on Friday will result in warmer temps yet again with highs approaching the 80 mark for Central GA and mid 70s for the metro.
Otherwise, limited moisture will move in overnight that is associated with a passing upper-level trough. For the aforementioned northern areas, there may be enough moisture with the trough to see some light sprinkles and flurries. Overnight lows will range from near freezing to a few degrees above freezing for most. A few sheltered areas may dip to just below freezing. Tomorrow, the upper-trough pushes east and high pressure slides further west and becomes centered over our area. Highs will be warmer with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s with clear skies. RH values will be in the low 30s tomorrow afternoon.
Cooler temperatures are forecast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Low pressure at the surface was developing this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves south into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Areas of light rain will be developing farther north across central and west central Kansas by late afternoon and early evening with a changeover to light snow, and possibly some light freezing drizzle during the evening hours as the cold air becomes more entrenched across western Kansas. Snow accumulations are not expected to be all that much with potentially up to an inch or so along the Highway 96/I-70 corridor. The weekend will see the upper flow pattern over the CONUS becoming more westerly as the upper longwave trough moves east.
200 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Cool and dry high pressure will continue across our region through the end of the work week.
A broad upper trough and NW flow should result in isolated to scattered snow showers overnight especially N of PIT, with generally light accumulation expected. Will maintain the Freeze Warning generally south of the I 70 corridor where the growing season has begin as temperatures drop to at or below freezing across the area.
-- Snow mainly south of I-96 very late tonight/Friday -- A blend of latest higher res model guidance and ensembles continues to indicate that light snow will develop very late tonight through Friday due to isentropic upglide associated with a low pressure system moving ene across the lower Ohio valley region. -- Moderating trend of temps this weekend -- A southwesterly flow of milder air will develop over the weekend with high temperatures reaching the lower 50s. A few snow showers are possible during the first 6 hrs of the period as a wave of low pressure moves across Lower Michigan.
Later this afternoon, precipitation will start to develop further south again as a series of waves are ejected ahead of the main trough axis digging into the central Rockies. Trough axis finally moves out late tonight through early Friday morning, with precipitation expected to end by 12z. Friday will be warmer with lower 50s expected, and lows Friday night in the 20s and 30s.
The ridge will push east of the area on Friday returning warmth and moisture and a few showers with the southeast flow to all of West Florida. The building ridge north of the area combined with cooler air blowing over warmer water will give us some gusty winds over the coastal waters today.
325 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through late Friday.
Previous northern outlier NAM has settled southward in its latest runs, and while some hi-res and global solutions still show some very light QPF across the Highway 20 corridor this afternoon/early evening, chances for measurable precip drop off quickly north of there. Northwest portions of the forecast area have a chance to see a little sun this afternoon, which should help boost readings in the lower-mid 40s. Clearing skies and light winds in the wake of the wave tonight should result in another sub-freezing night, with lows generally in the mid 20s.
Low level airmass was fairly dry with dewpoints from the low 20s in central MO to the upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere. Highs today should warm into the low to mid 60s. That will occur for the whole CWA by Friday night as the area of high pressure will move overhead. With a light wind, clearing sky and temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s, frost looks like a good bet for Friday night.
No WX expected as the proximity of high pressure continues to provide dry conditions.
Broad high pressure will build into the area today with skies clearing by the afternoon.
Temperatures in the ongoing Freeze Warning are already at or below freezing. Dry conditions expected today with high pressure moving to the east of the region. Winds will become southerly as return flow increases on the back side of the high. Precipitation chances increase late tonight through Friday as a cold front passes through the region. Precipitation will exit the forecast area by Friday night as high pressure arrives.
237 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Deep troughing over much of eastern North America continued today, with convective snow showers developing in the W to NW flow across the region. Went with 10 percentile lows this evening to reflect this which puts lows in the interior west 10F into the mid teens and by the lakeshores in the high teens to very low 20s. Highs tomorrow should be slightly warmer than today in the 30s. Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri with NW upper flow after this passes. More energy then comes south out of Canada and amplifies a 500 mb trough over the plains by 12z Sun. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over the central U.
Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this surface feature continues to bring a moisture rich airmass into the central Plains while a dry and cooler airmass drops south across the northern Plains creating a tight east/west baroclinic zone across southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We have already seen light precipitation across portions of the area as the lower levels continue to saturate. In addition, accumulations may be difficult to measure with some melting taking place as surface temperatures hover around freezing.
344 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 (Today and Tonight) Today will be breezy and warmer, with highs this afternoon in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. A cold front will advance south across the Big Country late tonight, and should reach a Sterling City-Coleman-Lake Brownwood line by 7 AM Friday.
Front will enter the region early Friday with passage through the northern half of the forecast area, leading to cooler temperatures once again for the same area that was affected by the last front.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb high pressure is positioned from the Yucatan Peninsula to Cuba. Highs increase to the upper 80s and low 90s on Friday with dew points recovering into the lower 70s.
High pressure has moved into the Ohio Valley with light southerly winds on its backside keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Front will be south of the state when the period concludes with high pressure building quickly in behind it.
The weak cut-off low pressure system that brought high clouds to the region yesterday and contributed to an increased marine influence overnight continues to drift south off the coast. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures back to the coast later this afternoon along with continued dry conditions. Across the interior there is the potential for daytime heating which may result in enough weak instability to initiate spotty shower activity over the higher terrain of eastern Mendocino, Lake and Trinity Counties late this afternoon and Friday afternoon. A more well defined upper level trough will approach the region late in the weekend and result in a region- wide cooling trend and slight chance for rain showers.
804 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through late Friday.
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 (Today through Friday) A warmer day is expected today ahead of a cold front that will move into northwest Oklahoma of the area this afternoon. Although there will be a capping inversion to try to inhibit thunderstorm development, forcing along the cold front will likely be enough for showers and storms to develop late this afternoon and this evening near the front.
Sly flow at the sfc to return today in response to a trof movg into the Central Plains. Temps today should rebound nicely into the low to mid 70s at most sites under abundant sunshine. Advancing trof to force an associated cold front ewd towards out region tonight and Friday, bringing some slight chances for shwrs and perhaps even an isold tstm by Friday aftn. Cooler air will begin to filter into the region in the wake of the front, and slightly cooler max temps for the nwrn portions of the area will result.
1040 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Currently - The Keys reside in a rather weak pressure gradient with a ridge off to the south and a dying trough across South Florida in the process of lifting out. Lower level ridging remains aligned across Cuba keeping a significant amount of dry air aloft. Short Term Update - A rather weak pressure field will remain in place today due to the lingering effects of the old trough and heating over the mainland. Winds will remain weak through the afternoon with the ridge off to our south and a weak trough nearby.
329 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Cooler air filtering into region from the north will bring seasonable temperatures for the next few days.