Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The highest rain chances for this afternoon will be west of I-45 and along/south of I- 10. That being said, the positioning of this low has a big impact on rain chances for Tuesday. The further south it is, the lower the rain chances. Either way, the low will track towards the west and there is model consensus to bring it towards the south TX/north Mexico coast midweek. For now, I've kept the highest PoPs offshore and along the coast. The good news is that the increased moisture will keep temperatures in the low to mid 90s for Tuesday. Dew points are expected to drop into at least the low 50s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area on Tuesday.
1239 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Skies are turning sunny as high pressure moves into the region. Dry and cooler conditions will then persist through mid week.
/EC/ The forecast is generally on track with a cold front moving slowly southeast across the forecast area. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a cold front still northwest of our CWA with a 1026mb high centered over the central Plains. The cold front is expected to still be north of our southeast most counties by sunrise Tuesday. For today though, the presence of this cold front and daytime heating will lead to scattered to numerous storms developing along and south of the cold front. Cooler than normal morning lows are expected across our north with near normal morning lows expected central and south.
1106 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure from the Dakotas into the central plains.
The temperature spread across the CWA reflects the satellite imagery with cool conditions at the coast and significantly warmer temperatures inland. The pattern change is a weakening upper level ridge and developing upper level trough over the West Coast. Tuesday will be a transition day temp-wise with some cooler temps arriving.
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 (18Z TAFS) Remains of frontal boundary located across the Lower Trans Pecos with scattered showers and storms developing on it. The cold front has progressed southward to the I-10 corridor with persistent northeasterly flow behind it continuing through this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s areawide. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will stay below average, though will be a degree or two warmer than today.
A weak cold front is currently oriented northeast to southwest from eastern TN through northern AL into central MS. The culprit will be a cold front entering north Georgia this morning and sagging southward through the day. The front will more or less bisect the area by this afternoon with the highest PoPs in this vicinity. Even cooler conditions are forecast with highs perhaps struggling to reach the mid 80s for many in north Georgia.
An upper level low pressure systems just to our east will keep our weather pattern unsettled as we move into Tuesday.
305 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure is centered along the middle Missouri River Valley with cool northerly winds of 5 to 10 MPH across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. High pressure will slowly shift into the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours. Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is moving southward across Minnesota.
1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Summary: Warmer day in store for the Northland today with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A cold front is expected to drop south of the International Border early Tuesday morning bringing some scattered showers. MLCAPE looks to be in excess of 500 J/kg with bulk shear slightly on the low end around 35kts. One of large uncertainties with this current set up is just how unstable will the region get before the cold front punches through. Rain and storms are expected to move out of the region quickly Tuesday night with clearing skies on the backside of the cold front. Look for lows in the lower 40s across northern MN and mid 40s for NW WI.
The opposite can be said about the Southeast today where its already cleared and those areas may actually reach the lower 80s for a high. Further Details: Today into tomorrow a broad area of high pressure aloft will merge into a more defined H5 high over the Desert Southwest.
(18Z TAFS) Remains of frontal boundary located across the Lower Trans Pecos with scattered showers and storms developing on it. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper ridge has 2 centers today. The ridge over TX will weaken Tuesday as ridge grows over the Western US. A cold front moved into the region yesterday resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures today. Even post frontal with an E wind guidance unusually cool for late June in the low to mid 80s.
Mid and high level clouds continue to spread across the region and look to be with us the remainder of the afternoon as monsoonal moisture gets wrapped around the northern side of the subtropical ridge centered to our southwest. Made some adjustments to winds and sky cover through this afternoon based on trends, otherwise expect temperatures in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 (Issued 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will keep weather quiet this evening and winds should grow light and variable for a time. Weak WAA will start tomorrow morning as a warm front lift across the northern part of the state.
117 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Great Lakes region this morning. This trough moves to the lower Great Lakes by 00z tonight. Southerly winds increase early tonight ahead of a more notable surface to 300 mb trough located over far northern Ontario by early Tuesday morning. The low, now centered over James Bay, continues to deepen through Tuesday mid- day as shower and thunderstorm chances increase from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening over Upper Michigan. Locally heavy rainfall up to 1" under the strongest thunderstorms is possible as storms form along and ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions return to Upper Michigan by early Tuesday night as the mid and upper level trough shift out of the north-central U.
CMiller (Issued 407 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022) Today and Tonight: Dry air will continue to move into Wisconsin today as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will return to the 80s Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
(This evening through Tuesday) Enhanced CU field and a few showers and storms developing across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country this afternoon, well behind the cold front across Central Texas.
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Skies are turning sunny as high pressure moves into the region. Dry and cooler conditions will then persist through mid week.
147 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A cold front is traversing the area this afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.
The front will lose its forward momentum as the parent trough pulls further away towards the Northeast, and the surface boundary will be left to provide some focus for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow. PoPs may be maximized across our southern half of the forecast area as an inverted trough moves westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical airmass remains in place as a messy upper level ridge builds back across the southern conus.
Moisture amounts will vary from day to day, but will still be enough for our typical summertime scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection with the highest chances around and west of the Highway 41 corridor over the Nature Coast and Interstate 75 corridor further south. High pressure well out in the Atlantic ocean will extend over the region through the period with generally east to southeast flow across the waters, except for a shift to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
The trailing upper trough could hold temps down from the James River east. The building ridge in the west, however, will push highs well into the 80s across central SD.
352 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A cooler and drier air mass builds tonight through Tuesday with a few showers northwest of the Capital Region with an upper level disturbance.
Temperatures throughout southwest KS at 18Z vary widely, from the low 50s under the heaviest precipitation and thickest cloud cover to the low 80s near I-70 where skies are mostly clear.
Daytime heating has trough mainly fair weather cu to the region so far today. Once these showers diminish later Tuesday morning, the remainder of the day looks to be slightly cooler, yet seasonal, and mainly dry.
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 With an arm of ridging extending into Upper Michigan this afternoon, the weather has been and will continue to be rather benign into early this evening. Southerly winds increase early tonight ahead of a more notable surface to 300 mb trough located over far northern Ontario by early Tuesday morning. The low, now centered over James Bay, continues to deepen through Tuesday mid- day as shower and thunderstorm chances increase from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening over Upper Michigan. Locally heavy rainfall up to 1" under the strongest thunderstorms is possible as storms form along and ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions return to Upper Michigan by early Tuesday night as the mid and upper level trough shift out of the north-central U.
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 - Dry and warming weather through Tuesday Night Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place over Eastern NB and eastern KS extending east into IL and Indiana. Cooler and less humid air was flowing into Indiana on northwest winds ahead of the high. By Tuesday morning the high is suggested to stretch from western PA across Indiana to the southern plains. Thus no fog will be expected along with lows in the lower 50s. The impact of this will not be in the skies as clear skies will continue to be suggested, but with warmer temperatures overnight. Thus will expect warmer lows on Tuesday Night in the upper 50s.
301 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
252 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Discussion/Marine We are continuing with the overall theme of predominantly dry and warmer weather into the weekend with temperatures at or above normal.
Tuesday a cold front will approach the Northern Rockies.
*A few scattered showers/rumbles of thunder N tonight into Tuesday *Temps in the 90s return Wed/Thur, but not too humid *Shower/storm chances increase as front/boundary drops through Thur/Fri/Sat Discussion: Surface ridging moving across provided another quiet, pleasant day across the state.
With a cooler airmass in place across the ArkLaTex, overnight lows are forecast to fall into the 60s areawide, with the coolest temps in the lower 60s across southeast Oklahoma. On Tuesday, afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
The troughs and weak boundaries in the local waters are currently inducing showers and isolated thunderstorms. The GFS and ECMWF moves the mid and upper-level trough currently near the Bahamas westward towards our area over the next 24 hours.
154 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A cold front will finish pushing through Central PA this morning. High pressure will then build into the area, brining much drier air.
(Tonight) A cold front is exiting the CWA to the southeast this afternoon, producing only a few showers from Cullman through DeKalb counties. Clearing skies overnight will allow for greater radiational cooling, except for a persistent north wind near 5-8 mph which will prevent our overnight lows from reaching the cooler dew points. However, we should cool into the low to mid 60s by sunrise tomorrow.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) An upper-level weakness along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will support a chance for diurnally driven convection across mainly deep east Texas and north Louisiana later this afternoon. With a cooler airmass in place, expecting afternoon highs to range from the mid 80s north of I-30 to the lower 90s across much of deep east Texas and north Louisiana this afternoon. This will open the door for us to see the muggy Gulf moisture laden air make a move back well inland with some warmer lows for midweek back in the low to mid 70s.
307 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight, brining much drier air.
/issued 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/ Finally some relief from the heat as a cold front has moved through the region. After midweek, a weak ridge will build back across the area.
149 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure and a cooler and drier airmass will build into the region through Tuesday. High pressure shifts to the east through midweek, resulting in warming temperatures.
Periods of MVFR conditions are expected when showers pass, and until the passage of a cold front in the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 84 67 86 69 / 10 20 20 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 85 65 88 68 / 10 20 10 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 84 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 60 86 61 / 0 10 10 10 0.
1045 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Satellite shows just a few shallow cumulus clouds across the higher terrain this morning with mostly clear skies elsewhere. The low level winds are pretty light across the forecast area at this time. Models have upper ridging building north, to our west, today.
211 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Forecast will be dry tonight under the high pressure ridge axis and dry airmass. Upper ridge shifts E into central MT on Tuesday and HREF increases PWAT's over the western half of the area. Tuesday will be hot with temps reaching the lower 90s in many areas.
The skies will mostly clear out this afternoon and evening with the lower moisture levels in the atmosphere.
An upper level trough will move across the Northeastern states through Tuesday. The highest coverage of convection will generally occur along and west of Interstate 65 where precipitable water values will be enhanced at around 1. Convection is expected to diminish late this evening as the upper trough moves east and day time heating eases. Highs this afternoon are on track to top out in the lower 90s with lows overnight falling into the lower to mid 70s inland with upper 70s along the coast.
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A cooler and drier air mass builds tonight through Tuesday with a few showers northwest of the Capital Region with an upper level disturbance.
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Skies are turning sunny as high pressure moves into the region. Dry and cooler conditions will then persist through mid week.
1133 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Today high pressure becomes centered over southern Nevada allowing for weak northwest flow over our region. Showers and storms will form across the higher terrain around mid day with the better chances in the southern and central mountains. Given the drier air in the lower levels gusty outflow winds look possible especially along and north of I-70. Tomorrow a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest causing the high to shift southward. The westerly flow will also usher in a slightly warmer air mass into the region so highs come up by about 5 degrees from today.
Temps this morning running 5-10 degrees cooler than just 24 hours ago with dew points in the low to mid 60s across the area. The upper pattern this morning is defined by a trough of low pressure over northern Arizona extending into SW Arizona, and a lobe of high pressure that is slowly moving west through northeast Sonora Mexico. Look for storms to develop late this afternoon along and near the weakening trough axis across south-central Arizona. Storms activity will persist into the evening and expand east and northeast as the upper trough drifts east and opens up.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the higher terrain of Northwest Arizona and the Eastern Mojave Desert this afternoon with similar conditions expected daily through midweek.
A surface cold front has pushed through much of the area today, but the most significant drying is taking place well behind the front, just north of the forecast area. /EC/ Tuesday night through Monday: The chance of precipitation will increase this week as a low pressure disturbance expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico restores deep layer moisture through the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures are expected to be noticeably cooler and more comfortable compared to the oppressive heat that has invaded the region throughout the last 2 weeks or so.
Temperatures take another step higher tomorrow afternoon before a cold front swings through late afternoon and evening, bringing the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 At the surface, low pressure sits over southeastern Wyoming, high pressure to our east. Upper level ridge sits over the western CONUS today.
1203 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front is approaching the Interstate 10 corridor and is forecast to continue to slowly move south this morning. PoPs were mainly confined south of Interstate 20, with the highest chances across our southern counties. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast today.
The low in the morning will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Highs in the low/mid-80s with high clouds streaming over the region for the day.
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) An upper-level weakness along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will support a chance for diurnally driven convection across mainly deep east Texas and north Louisiana later this afternoon. With a cooler airmass in place, expecting afternoon highs to range from the mid 80s north of I-30 to the lower 90s across much of deep east Texas and north Louisiana this afternoon. This will open the door for us to see the muggy Gulf moisture laden air make a move back well inland with some warmer lows for midweek back in the low to mid 70s.
Showers and storms developing as a result of the weak inverted trough will continue to develop through the afternoon and will primarily remain to the south of the I-10 corridor. High temperatures for this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s for locations closer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline.
104 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A cold front will finish pushing through Central PA this morning. High pressure will then build into the area, brining much drier air.
Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase ahead of a cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region by the end of the work week. Average temperatures are running about 5 degrees cooler than what's typical for late June with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s, while afternoon RH values sink into the 30s for many. A quick glance at SPC sounding climatology for ILX reveals that surface dewpoints tonight and Tuesday will near the lowest 10th and 25th percentiles, respectfully.
Max temps will be a few degrees warmer but the humidity should remain at bay.
- Dry and warming weather through Tuesday Night Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place over Eastern NB and eastern KS extending east into IL and Indiana. Cooler and less humid air was flowing into Indiana on northwest winds ahead of the high. By Tuesday morning the high is suggested to stretch from western PA across Indiana to the southern plains. Thus no fog will be expected along with lows in the lower 50s. The impact of this will not be in the skies as clear skies will continue to be suggested, but with warmer temperatures overnight. Thus will expect warmer lows on Tuesday Night in the upper 50s.
Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase ahead of a cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region by the end of the work week. High pressure settling over the area will provide for mostly clear skies, aside from some high thin clouds streaming over the area. Average temperatures are running about 5 degrees cooler than what's typical for late June with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s, while afternoon RH values sink into the 30s for many. A quick glance at SPC sounding climatology for ILX reveals that surface dewpoints tonight and Tuesday will near the lowest 10th and 25th percentiles, respectfully.
705 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 We remain under the influence of large scale ridging this evening. JKL Forecast will be dry tonight under the high pressure ridge axis and dry airmass. Upper ridge shifts E into central MT on Tuesday and HREF increases PWAT's over the western half of the area. Tuesday will be hot with temps reaching the lower 90s in many areas.
Our cold front has pushed well into Central Texas and is being reinforced by several outflow boundaries. High temperatures will continue to be near normal in the lower 90s across the region.
802 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Aviation We are continuing with the overall theme of predominantly dry and warmer weather into the weekend with temperatures at or above normal.
High pressure is centered along the middle Missouri River Valley with cool northerly winds of 5 to 10 MPH across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. High pressure will slowly shift into the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours. Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is moving southward across Minnesota.
Slightly cooler tomorrow as the trough pushes into the region.
647 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Enhanced CU field and a few showers and storms developing across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country this afternoon, well behind the cold front across Central Texas.
849 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through the middle of the week, then pull offshore late in the week. A cold front will follow for the weekend. Aside from some lingering shower activity over the middle Chesapeake Bay area, earlier activity has wound down as a cold front pushes to the south and east. The large-scale pattern keeps ridging across the western U. while broad troughing extends across central Canada and into the northern/northeastern tier of the U. Surface ridging approaches from the west which favors another seasonably cool night.
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A milder and relatively less humid airmass remains in place today after a cold front pushed through the area early yesterday. Lows tonight should be similar to or a couple degrees warmer than what we observed last night, with mid 50s in most locations and lower 60s toward downtown Chicago and the lake. A bit more warmth returns for Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints also make a recovery into the mid to upper 50s by late in the day, though the moisture has a long way to travel around the western edge of a sprawling ridge to our south before reaching northern IL and southern WI. Lenning The period begins on a dry note as a mid-level ridge begins to build into the area.
Adjusted mins a touch warmer toward the NBM with expected cloud cover across NE OK and NW AR likely to limit radiational cooling.
515 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight, brining much drier air.
649 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight, accompanied by cool and dry.
339 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Temperatures will peak slightly above normal today as the ridge nudges further east. Relative humidity values will bottom out in the lower teens this afternoon, especially across southern areas. On Tuesday the ridge will be flattened a bit as a low moves into the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, temperatures will further increase, generally into the low 90s east and upper 80s south.
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 (Tonight) A cold front is exiting the CWA to the southeast this afternoon, producing only a few showers from Cullman through DeKalb counties. Clearing skies overnight will allow for greater radiational cooling, except for a persistent north wind near 5-8 mph which will prevent our overnight lows from reaching the cooler dew points. However, we should cool into the low to mid 60s by sunrise tomorrow.