Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, everything appear on track, with cooler temperatures and breezy afternoon winds the only noticeablefeatures for the day. A thermal trough will continue to produce moderate north winds today.
732 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 For the 05/12Z terminal forecast, a series of upper level disturbances moving through a ridge of high pressure aloft over the four state region was producing scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning along with MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions. Weakness along the nern periphery of the ridge will allow for some chances for convection Wednesday, especially over the ern half of the region.
12Z KTAE souding is showing solid southwesterly flow in the lowest 3km, which is usually supportive of an active seabreeze day.
Potent nw conus upper trough will shift east in the period, supporting more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with severe storms possible Wednesday. Temps will rise into the 80s and 90s today, warmest se areas where warmer profiles reside aloft. Ll moisture plume will recycle over the area tonight as an advecting pac nw upper trough supports a staunch pos theta-e burst over the fa under steep mid level lapse rates. Cooler temps expected most areas wed given moisture/rain/clouds with se flow.
A mid/upper level low pressure system in southern British Columbia this morning will move south through this afternoon and upon reaching the Washington border the low makes a sharp turn toward the east. Models show the low straddling the Canadian border as it moves to the ESE tonight. The low will move into Idaho/Montana by daybreak Wednesday. The track of the low leaves the interior Northwest in the southern flank of the low and thus in a westerly flow aloft areawide resulting in sinking air dry conditions through tonight.
639 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 The low/mid lvl thermal ridge will expand eastward across the Central Plains today resulting in rising temperatures. Mid lvl temperatures continue to rise supporting dry weather conditions and a continuation of excessive heat on Wed while a sagging cold front will bring increasing chances for storms late Thu.
/issued 732 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016/ For the 05/12Z terminal forecast, a series of upper level disturbances moving through a ridge of high pressure aloft over the four state region was producing scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning along with MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions. Weakness along the nern periphery of the ridge will allow for some chances for convection Wednesday, especially over the ern half of the region.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Data from the Key West morning radiosonde balloon indicated moderately east-southeasterly flow at low levels, averaging about 16 knots through the lowest 10,000 feet. A high pressure cell and associated ridge remain in a steady-state position from the western North Atlantic to eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ridge remaining north of the Florida Keys. In addition, some dry air was present through the lower and middle troposphere, but not as much as yesterday.
Isolated convection will be possible after 20Z to 22Z today mainly across the eastern and southeastern Texas Panhandle where an upper trough will help to trigger the convection. Good agreement from models regarding persistent upper- level ridge of high pressure over the southern U.
Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week. Morning soundings upstream show this dry air is situated primarily above 700mb, while the low-levels sampled by the PBZ and ILN soundings reveal copious amounts of moisture. Outside of the possibility of an afternoon shower along the elevated heat source of the ridges Wednesday should remain mostly dry with little to no forcing present.
Weak high pressure will build overhead tonight into Wednesday before a few rounds of low pressure cross the Mid-Atlantic from the west Wednesday night through the weekend. In the wake of the trough axis, winds will become westerly, which will allow the airmass to warm and dry slightly.
However, the overall coverage will be limited by the subsidence from the upper level ridge overhead so rain chances will only range from 20 to 40 percent.
The low/mid lvl thermal ridge will expand eastward across the Central Plains today resulting in rising temperatures. Mid lvl temperatures continue to rise supporting dry weather conditions and a continuation of excessive heat on Wed while a sagging cold front will bring increasing chances for storms late Thu.
A thermal trough will continue to produce moderate north winds today.
Otherwise low pressure over Southern British Columbia sags some to the south and overhangs into the forecast area resulting in enough increase in instability along with increased presence of minor disturbances rotating around the edges of the low to keep pops in the forecast for afternoon convection. /Pelatti 12Z TAFS: An area of low pressure tracks south out of Canada bringing increasing clouds and chance for showers and thunderstorms. upper low swings through Ern WA with showers likely to develop btwn KPUW and KGEG and into the ID Panhandle.
Most likely, the greatest coverage will come around mid day through mid to late afternoon as the trough is moving into the area. Temperatures remain muggy overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
A weak upper level disturbance will pass well to the northeast today with high pressure remaining the main driver for subsidence and hot temperatures this afternoon.
The flow pattern across Northeast Montana (Nemont) today will be based on the broad trough, and cooler air- mass, in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and the hot air-mass south of Montana. The trough sent an initial wave out ahead of it early this morning, generating showers and isolated thunder. A shallow ridge follows for today which will result in mostly dry conditions through tonight. By Wednesday at 18Z the trough begins to dig into the North Rockies.
Temperatures will be below normal for at least another week as a series of upper lows tracks through the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.
934 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the area today will weaken by wednesday.
807 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the area today will weaken by wednesday.
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Low pressure moves along the southern New England this afternoon. High pressure then settles off the Southeast Coast from mid week into the upcoming weekend. Much warmer/more humid air has spread ovr the rgn the past 12-18 hrs.
/issued 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The stagnant weather pattern will continue through the short term as the elongated upper level high pressure system remains in place.
747 AM PDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak trough over the West Coast will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through the week. The low cloud pattern was very similar to that of the past few mornings --widespread in coastal and most valley areas, with the exception of the Santa Clarita Valley, and the interior valleys of SLO and SBA counties.
Temperatures were a bit cooler than the previous forecast this morning, so adjusted hourlies down a bit but kept the high temperatures about the same this afternoon. A weak upper trough will move across Middle Tennessee today and this evening, with a few lingering showers, especially on the Plateau.
High pressure ridge axis near Lake Okeechobee will produce a weak low level S/SW flow. 7 inches and warmer than normal temps at 700mb around +11 C, which should keep showers and storms limited as the sea breeze initially forms and moves inland. Highs will reach the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s over the interior with heat index values around 105. (Previous Discussion) The low level ridge axis will remain just north of Lake Okeechobee and produce a south to southwest wind near 10 knots during the day.
(Issued 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016) The main upper level trough was situated over the Mississippi Valley region as of 08z. Overcast skies and a light southerly wind will prevent much cooling over the next few hours and minimum temps are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, the low level convergence will also intensify slightly across the eastern portion of the forecast area. By the afternoon, the greater probabilities for precip will begin to shift eastward as the low level flow becomes more zonal.
Recent WV imagery and UA analysis show a series of waves traveling along the nrn edge of the upper ridge, acrs the srn plains and lower MS valley. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue with temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 90s. A weak upper level disturbance will pass well to the northeast today with high pressure remaining the main driver for subsidence and hot temperatures this afternoon.
Current temps range from the lower 70s to lower 80s and is running about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Development is due to the upper-level trough moving through, a convergence axis and left over boundaries in place. Precip chances decline throughout this afternoon as the convergence axis weakens and the trough weakens and progress eastward.
/Issued 347 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016/ While the broad ridge off the southeast CONUS has contributed an elevated warm layer to help suppress convective development through the holiday weekend. Southeast portions of the area may still be fighting against the ridge to limit updrafts and stronger development. Have not gone likely pops but general 40% chance area-wide since ridge to southeast should be weaker and any lingering boundaries from Tuesday development may locally enhance triggering pretty much anywhere in the CWA.
Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week. Any residual showers will cease from the west this afternoon as upper-level heights begin to rise behind an exiting trough.
/issued 432 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Southwest flow aloft will remain over the area the next 24 hours ahead of a deep upper low over the southwest states. Breezy south to southeast winds will occur again today, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.
A warm day is on tap with high pressure to our south and a weak cold front approaching from the north. Should see limited chances Sunday with a s/wv ridge briefly across the area.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP RIDGING TODAY BUT THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF LLVL MSTR HAS BEGUN WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE. UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AGAIN BUT READING WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN YDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
1104 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT EAST WED MRNG AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SAT MRNG. AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HEIGHT CNTR OVER ERN CANADA.
615 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN AND A MUCH COOLER DAY. A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT BRINING NORTHERLY WINDS. ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE MERGING OF A PAIR OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s, and lows tonight in the 40s west of Dodge City to around 52 to 58 east of Dodge. Surface winds back mainly across south central Kansas with good low level shear, and a chance for some tornadoes in the higher mid and upper level winds with the upper jet just east of Dodge City.
AND SUNDAY CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN GET INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
713 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. HE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD THINK THE FRONT WOULD USE UP A GOOD DEAL OF WHAT ENERGY IS AVAILABLE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EFFECT OF A WARM FRONT.
1118 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 Weak upper level impulse ahead of main upper low over the central Rockies resulting in a few high-based showers and even a few lightning strikes as close as northwest OK this morning. Southerly winds will begin to increase today as high pressures shift east of the region. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer Today as a southerly breeze kicks up. Could start seeing a few elevated showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday morning as a southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area as an upper level low begins to wobble out of the Rockies and into the plains.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
1006 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING THIN LINE OF SHALLOW CU TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ADJACENT TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AT THIS HOUR.
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER TEXAS. NOSES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOUNDED BY TWO DEEP LAYER TROFS. ONE TROF AXIS ALIGNED FROM NEW YORK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. AFTER A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDY COVER CAN BE SEEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA ORIGINATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A SECOND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWING MOVING EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TO INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
620 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE REMAINED FIRMLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A VERY SUBTLE WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG/DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND A VORT LOBE ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A STRONGER WAVE ROTATING NEWD THROUGH ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW WILL REFORM NEAR THE WY/NEB BORDER WITH SHOWERS/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WINDS WEAKEN WITH CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST MILDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT. BUT AT THE SURFACE AN EAST WIND WILL RESULT IN A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
713 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WINDS WEAKEN WITH CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST MILDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT. BUT AT THE SURFACE AN EAST WIND WILL RESULT IN A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
1240 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EFFECT OF A WARM FRONT.
1103 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 HYDRO A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TDA AS A MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING. MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE PGF INCREASES EVEN MORE DUE TO THE APPROACHING MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED S/WVS.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVING ENE THIS MORNING. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ON FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW IS STARTING TO MOVE NE THIS MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 121 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ 5H RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST SIDE WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FURTHER EAST.
747 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
The low will be moving northeastward away from Southern California tonight and showers should gradually diminish over the interior late tonight and Sunday.
NORTH DAKOTA WAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A LARGE-SCALE CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN ROCKIES LOW/TROUGH WILL ALLOW A STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF LOWER-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
/ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING FROM MS/LA TAILING DOWN INTO SETX AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER WEST- CENTRAL TX SLOWLY MARCHES EAST. TIDES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TOP OF THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS OF THE MONTH AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY AS JET STREAK EMERGES FROM BASE OF SOUTHWESTERN U. CLOSED LOW.
A cold front currently over northwest Iowa will drift into northern Missouri and central Illinois this afternoon before becoming quasi- stationary. Regardless, all guidance including the high resolution convection allowing models break precip out along the front over northern Missouri by 18-19Z and move it across northeast Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois.
The low pressure area associated with this front will move across the Great Lakes region, dragging the front into central IL later this morning. Temps today will be divided by the front with highest temps in the lower 80s south of the front and lower to middle 70s north of the front in the Peoria and Bloomington/Normal areas. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s with upper 40s to near 50F from I-74 north. Cooler highs Sunday in the upper 60s with sw CWA around 70F, which is 3-5F cooler than normal.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXISTED EARLIER AND SOME WEAK ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AT THIS TIME. EXPECTED QG FORCING IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE AND MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ON THE FAR PLAINS SHOULD HELP TO GET THINGS GOING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND CLOSE OFF OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS CIRCULATION DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM EAGLE TO PUEBLO. THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF COLORADO.
The closed low maintains its influence on interior NorCal weather today. The center of the low has moved into the Great Basin but moisture continues to wrap around the top of the low into our region.
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016/ CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS/LA GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT EXPECTING THEM TO PICK BACK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO EXIST BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT A BIT CHILLY BUT HIGHS WILL GET UP INTO THE LOWER 80S.
Stacked high pressure will slide into the area today, allowing mostly clear skies and light winds from the northwest. Morning lows will be in the low 50s, but temperatures will return to the low 80s this afternoon.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. IS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH COLORADO AND INTO WYOMING. NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW IS MORE OVERHEAD AND SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER. GIVEN A RELATIVELY-LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF 8K- 9K FEET.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS SURFACE WINDS START OUT WESTERLY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION. IT WILL START A SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.