Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Canadian high pressure will build over the region from the northwest over the next couple of days. The high will keep the area mostly dry if a bit breezy this morning. Coupled with a deep upper trough digging into the Plains, much below normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday.
Previously mentioned system begins to lift out into the central US as the upper level trough contracts and shifts east for Wednesday. With continued height falls and temperatures above the surface running 2-3 SD below climatology, temperatures Wednesday won't recover past the low to mid 30s.
524 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Upper trough continues to dig into the central CONUS, with a 130 kt jet rounding its base. Cold front has passed through the CWA, and the band of snow continues to dissipate with weakening frontogenesis. Upper flow will split today/tonight as a closed low develops over UT/CO. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains, and conditions will dry out for a couple days. The upper trough will gradually make its way out of the region midweek, and northwest flow will set up as high pressure builds over the west coast.
Arctic cold front passed through eastern Oregon and western-most Idaho early this morning marked by increased northwesterly wind and lowering dew point.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 61 71 65 / 0 30 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 57 72 64 / 0 10 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 76 56 70 65 / 0 10 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 55 71 61 / 0 10 60 70.
The persistent upper level ridge centered over the east coast of Florida and continued southwesterly flow aloft will push deep Gulf moisture into north and central Georgia Today and Wednesday.
Warm air advection will continue over the overnight hours, but will be supported by stronger lift associated with an approaching upper level trough overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the north late Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves across the state.
1121 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Upper trough continues to dig into the central CONUS, with a 130 kt jet rounding its base. Cold front has passed through the CWA, and the band of snow continues to dissipate with weakening frontogenesis. Upper flow will split today/tonight as a closed low develops over UT/CO. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains, and conditions will dry out for a couple days. The upper trough will gradually make its way out of the region midweek, and northwest flow will set up as high pressure builds over the west coast.
250 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front across the Central Plains, with high pressure centered across western MT. Upper level analysis shows trough moving southeast across the Rockies and Plains. Low pressure is located across southwest WY, with strong jet wrapping around the system from the Pacific NW to the southern Rockies and Plains.
High pressure with a very dry modified Arctic air mass is becoming established over the area. the days are still long enough for insolation to efficiently warm the dry air to above freezing at most locations by this afternoon. and into the 40s in the lowest elevation locations. /Fugazzi 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions and light winds are expected at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours under a strong and dry high pressure system.
Organized rain will then transition to more of a drizzle scenario from later Wednesday morning into the afternoon as a dry slot works into the region ahead of upper level low pressure across the central Plains. Areas south of the interstate may manage to warm into the lower and perhaps middle 40s.
The longwave upper level ridge axis shifts over the Northern Rockies through the day on Wednesday. Southwest surface winds will begin to pick up along the Rocky Mountain Front as the lee-side trough develops. Clouds begin to increase Wednesday night as the ridge axis shifts away to the southeast.
In addition, rain showers will start entering the western half of central Indiana around Wed 03Z as an area of low pressure over Arkansas starts making its way along the cold front stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into the northeast U.
Cloud cover and strong warm air advection should make for much warmer lows on Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers should move northward into the area ahead of a warm front that should push into central ALabama overnight. Scattered to more numerous showers should remain over the area ahead of an approaching cold front and a strong low level jet that continues to develop ahead of it on Wednesday. Looks reasonable given strong moisture/warm air advection suggested by southwesterly flow associated with the low level jet ahead of the front. Heavier rainfall is possible also as this warm front moves into northern Alabama Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday: Upper troughing will track from the Southern/Central Rockies across the Lower Missouri River valley tomorrow. There could be a very brief window for flurries or light snow south of the Highway 20 corridor, but most again will see minimal precipitation. Temperatures will struggle to climb towards or a few degrees above freezing.
This break in the clouds is just ahead of the cold front that is pushing into the area. Expect temperatures to be in the lower 50s across Northeast Arkansas by later this afternoon. The low will start to track northeastward toward Mississippi, while the front lifts north as a warm front Wednesday morning.
Showers to increase in areal coverage this afternoon and evening as a strong upper trough moves into the plains.
This afternoon, water vapor imagery depicted an amplified upper level flow pattern with a ridge placed over the eastern Pacific and a deep trough extending from its base in the southwest CONUS through the embedded closed low over the Hudson Bay region. As the closed low persists tonight, chances for light snow will continue until the low and associated forcing shifts off to the east by Wednesday morning. Skies gradually clear Wednesday with highs in the 30s as the upper level low continues its slow exit east. Through the rest of the forecast period, ensemble guidance depicts mean troughing continuing through the central-eastern CONUS with an amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific. This upper level pattern will be associated with a periodic series of cold fronts and chances for snow every few days.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough covering the entire country with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from Victoria to Eagle Pass. The upper trough will swing through the southwest and into Texas during this period. Another cold front will move through our CWA Wednesday. With the rain and cloudiness Wednesday will be cool and cooler air will move in behind the front.
Much of north central Idaho, particularly elevations below 3000 feet, will experience slightly warmer temperatures tonight, however still well below the seasonal average.
Patchy freezing drizzle will spread northeastward to Dodge City and Ness City this morning. The lows will be around 9 am Thursday, with temperatures ranging from -3 (Medicine Lodge) to -13 (Scott City) and wind chills from -30 to -42.
Southwesterly flow aloft will halt the westward progress of the low clouds and help push it back east later today. The well advertised arctic cold front is still expected to arrive at our northern CWA around sunrise Thursday morning and quickly reach the Pecos River by around noon. The higher elevations out west will then slow its progress some but it should still mostly clear our westernmost counties by sunset.
Another possibility for showers returns Thursday as a weak area of low pressure moves across north Florida. The next major weather event and the big story for the area will be the strong cold frontal passage associated with the upper level low pressure system that is beginning to develop over the Ohio Valley.
Watching the potential for a cooler, wetter pattern after Christmas. Temperatures are running a few degrees colder this morning thanks to clear overnight skies, while temperatures this afternoon are on track to be warmer than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Synoptically, strengthening low pressure system over the Northern Rockies will dip south and east into the Great Plains today into tomorrow, making way for a ridge of high pressure to start building in over the West Coast. This will ridge will bring mild weather to California with temperatures expected to gradually warm each day through the holiday weekend.
Otherwise, looks like a quiet day and a little warmer as southerly flow returns. For tonight, we start watching the arctic cold front crashing south into the northern part of the Southern Plains.
702 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Today and Tonight: As a low pressure system develops and deepens over the Upper Midwest today, low-level flow in response will veer from out of the northeast to out of the southeast. This will keep the low clouds around the region, and some drizzle cannot be ruled out at times early this morning or again late tonight into early Thursday morning.
310 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Today and Tonight: As a low pressure system develops and deepens over the Upper Midwest today, low-level flow in response will veer from out of the northeast to out of the southeast. This will keep the low clouds around the region, and some drizzle cannot be ruled out at times early this morning or again late tonight into early Thursday morning.
The high level clouds that were around yesterday have pushed on east leaving a clear sky across southeast Arizona this morning.
After bottoming out in the upper 60s to near 70 in the rain-cooled environment earlier this evening, temperatures have recovered to the lower 70s at most island communities. The main feature of interest will be associated with a potent upper-level, longwave trough currently situated over the Upper Midwest. This trough will rapidly dive southward over the next 24-48 hours, gaining a negative tilt.
A stationary boundary draped across the area extends from a weak inverted trough positioned offshore from east central FL this morning. (12Z TAFS) Low stratus along a stalled boundary extending from an inverted trough over the Atlantic has led to widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings this morning for terminals north of KMLB.
Low-level moisture may be sufficient for some drizzle to develop which would be freezing drizzle given the cold temperatures. The NAM actually produces some very light QPF indicating at least the potential, and the Dodge City office reported that freezing drizzle had developed at Liberal KS earlier this morning. It's not a certainty that we will see freezing drizzle develop, but there is enough chance to mention in the forecast this morning. Have leaned toward the HRRR temperatures for this afternoon which keeps things cooler in these areas.
An approaching low pressure system will cause steady light snow and associated MVFR/IFR conditions to develop in north central and parts of far NE WI Wednesday afternoon, then overspread the rest of the region in the evening.
After the system passes, northwest flow will usher in cooler temperatures for tomorrow.
Friezing fog advisory will be allowed to expire at 11 am, though most locations within that area are already seeing significant vis improvement and/or warming above freezing.
Cold front has moved through Baker County this morning, with blowing and drifting snow up there. Temperatures in the lower Treasure Valley have actually warmed, as the cold front is mixing out the inversion there. Heavy snow showers possible in the Magic Valley as the cold front moves through there later this afternoon. Temperatures are trending slightly warmer tonight than the current forecast, will update that shortly.
1234 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Today and Tonight: As a low pressure system develops and deepens over the Upper Midwest today, low-level flow in response will veer from out of the northeast to out of the southeast. This will keep the low clouds around the region, and some drizzle cannot be ruled out at times early this morning or again late tonight into early Thursday morning.
The Florida Keys, lying south of this feature, has benefited (depending on how you look at it) today from a southerly wind which allowed temperature to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Thereafter, all eyes are on the Arctic air mass quickly and currently dropping out of Canada and into the High Plains.
Current 12Z sounding observations support mixing in the lower levels (roughly around 900mb) as the rain from the previous day was able to help the atmosphere maintain its saturation. /CRJ/ Today and Tonight: As a low pressure system develops and deepens over the Upper Midwest today, low-level flow in response will veer from out of the northeast to out of the southeast. This will keep the low clouds around the region, and some drizzle cannot be ruled out at times early this morning or again late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Winds are expected to increase Thursday ahead of a strong cold front passage Thursday night.
Synergistic phasing of three Canadian vortices to rapidly deepen southern Saskatchewan with 200-300m/12 hour falls in base of 5H trough axis.
In addition, due to the lack of a frontal passage, temperatures this morning are in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s, making it quite muggy.
Current temps are mainly in the mid 40s/near 50F, and given the cloud cover in place, temps later tonight may struggle to fall past the lower 40s/near 40F.
323 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 A warm front lifting north of the region resulted in low level veering winds and warm air advection across our region this morning and early afternoon. As a result, areas of dense fog have gradually improved to above a quarter mile while freezing fog deposition has piled up hoar frost on most surfaces. A dense fog advisory for dense fog and freezing fog valid until 3 pm is being allowed to expire as visibility should continue to gradually improve. The cold front slams through the forecast areas between 00 and 06 UTC / or 6pm and midnight.
134 PM PST Wed Dec 21 2022 Slightly cooler conditions occur tomorrow before the warm-up arrives for the holiday weekend.
High pressure will strengthen over central California on Wednesday and remain over the region through the holiday weekend. Little warming the SJ valley due to the stubborn low clouds and fog, clear and warmer in the foothills and desert. A ridge along Epac will be building over the district tonight through Thursday. This should strengthen the low level temperature inversion and lead to the stratus clouds lowering near the surface. The low clouds may provide another day of cool temperatures in the valley Thursday. The low clouds may finally diminish Thursday night due to a weak disturbance moving through the district bringing some mixing with stronger breezes. For the holiday weekend High pressure will dominate bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions for the area.
Somewhat open trough as it swings across the local area Thu, winding up/strengthening as it shifts northeast across the new england states/southeast Canada. Recent model trends suggest a bit quicker, farther northeast with the cyclone. Latest outlay would drop the higher amounts from NE IA into central WI with 6 to 8" possible.
As an artic outbreak spills into the CONUS, the Florida Keys remain the mildest spot in the lower 48. The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled low-level northwesterlies, linked to the convoluted low-trough-low complex near and to the north of the Bahamas.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 335 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 Precipitation will cross the region this morning and afternoon with low pressure. A strong cold front then brings arctic air and snow on Friday.
(Today) The much anticipated arctic cold front is currently moving into northeast Oklahoma/western sections of Osage, Pawnee counties early this morning. Along the leading edge of the front a brief period of freezing rain will be possible. Any untreated roads or bridges could become slick and hazardous in a matter of minutes. 1 to 2 inch snow accumulations are forecast with the highest amounts along the OK/KS border and across far northwest Arkansas along the MO border.
A warm front lifting north of the region resulted in low level veering winds and warm air advection across our region this morning and early afternoon. As a result, areas of dense fog have gradually improved to above a quarter mile while freezing fog deposition has piled up hoar frost on most surfaces. A dense fog advisory for dense fog and freezing fog valid until 3 pm is being allowed to expire as visibility should continue to gradually improve. The cold front slams through the forecast areas between 00 and 06 UTC / or 6pm and midnight.
The NW-SE oriented cold front is situated from near Burns to Rome in Oregon and along the ID/NV border. There is a chance of light snow developing in Harney County later in the afternoon as a warm front approaches. Cold front has moved through the Treasure Valley, and is oriented from John Day OR to Stanley, ID. Temperatures in the lower Treasure Valley have warmed, as the cold front has mixed out the inversion there.
For reference, the last time Glasgow was colder than -35 was Feb 1, 2011 when the low was -37.
Temperatures will remain below zero across the area now through at least midday Friday, with the lowest wind chills ranging from 35 below to near 60 below the next couple of nights. Conditions will start to improve Friday and especially over the holiday weekend as the high shifts east and intensifying upper low moves from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region. The northern Plains will be more and more under the influence of ridging over the western US.
940 PM PST Wed Dec 21 2022 Slightly cooler conditions occur on Thursday before the warm-up arrives for the holiday weekend.
Expect mainly dry and warmer weather, with light winds, through the holiday weekend. The Western Region remains under a ridge, while the central, southern, and eastern portions of the US are going to see impacts from a strong Arctic cold front. The million-dollar question is: when will we see more precipitation? Well, there may be some hope on the horizon! Model guidance is hinting at a weather system breaking down the current ridge over our region by midweek.
410 AM MST Thu Dec 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows surface arctic high pressure over Wyoming moving our way today.
GOES-16 satellite-derived nighttime fog product has been detecting patchy fog across portions of the Florida Keys, mainly in the vicinity of island communities in the Lower and Middle Keys. A powerful cold front currently extending from the Great Lakes region southwestward to the Texas Panhandle will continue to progress southeastward today, reaching the Florida Peninsula tonight.
With the front well south of the area and the upper trough progressing to the east, skies will clear during the morning hours. With warmer air moving into the area, temperatures will begin to rebound and reach the low teens during the day. With the warmer temperatures and decreasing winds (as the pressure gradient weakens), wind chills will warm above hazardous level during the day. Wind chills are forecasted to near the negative teens and twenties, but overnight winds may be too light and keep wind chills a bit warmer. Weekend: NNW to N flow aloft will prevail through the weekend -- on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge progressing eastward from the Pacific Coast to the Intermountain West.
for 06Z TAF Issuance A mix of flurries and freezing drizzle in eastern WI will come to an end around issuance time as light to moderate snow overspreads the region.
High pressure will build over central California on Friday and remain over the region through the holiday weekend.
543 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Deep upper trough stretches from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Extreme cold front is currently situated from Northeast MO into Central OK and is just about to exit our forecast area. By Fri afternoon, the deep upper low will be digging over the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley with strong northwest flow over the Plains. By Sat morning this storm system will be centered over western Quebec with the trough encompassing all of the Eastern CONUS. Most locations look to stay near or below freezing until Mon.
A VERY IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MATURES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SURGING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS, OBSERVING TEMPS FALL 30+ DEGREES BEHIND IT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED. AHEAD AND JUST ALONG THE FRONT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPED AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. FLASH FREEZING OCCURRED ON EXPOSED SURFACES AS THE COLD FRONT PASSED, RESULTING IN SLICK ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE SNOW BEGAN.
520 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 (Today) The much anticipated arctic cold front is currently moving into northeast Oklahoma/western sections of Osage, Pawnee counties early this morning. Along the leading edge of the front a brief period of freezing rain will be possible. Any untreated roads or bridges could become slick and hazardous in a matter of minutes. 1 to 2 inch snow accumulations are forecast with the highest amounts along the OK/KS border and across far northwest Arkansas along the MO border.
Discussion: The strong cold front has finally arrived with temperatures rapidly falling behind the front as it blasted southward overnight. Much of the area started out in the low to mid 30s yesterday evening, but have now dropped to near zero across far northwest Missouri and around 10 degrees for the KC metro as of 3 AM.
218 AM MST Thu Dec 22 2022 Current surface analysis shows surface arctic high pressure over Wyoming moving our way today.
Arctic airmass invades with dangerous wind chills and strong Arctic cold front is racing south across the Panhandle with winds gusting to near 50 knots the past few hours. Currently(07Z) the cold front is between AMA(current temp 6 above) and LBB(current temp 41). Going with cold front arriving in Abilene(I-20 corridor) by around 11Z, along a San Angelo to Brownwood by 13Z and along the I-10 corridor by late this morning.
Upper ridge pattern remains in place over NorCal. Weak short wave trough will ride over the top of the ridge tonight producing scattered light showers mainly over the mountains where 0.
There have also been reports of a period of freezing drizzle as the cold air moves in before the full transition to light snow/flurries. Between some icing with this brief freezing drizzle and the quick freezing of moisture on surfaces, there have already been reports of icing and impacts to travel, so we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory despite precipitation expected to remain light across most of the area. Otherwise the forecast is on track with the cold front moving through and falling temperatures through the morning.
Large upper trough is centered over North Dakota this morning with an upper ridge axis along the western coast of the United States. This ridge axis will stay somewhat stationary through the day. Highs will be cooler with readings in the 30s and 40s. Energy from a weak trough will move through the ridge tonight and Friday.
Along the front areas of freezing drizzle have been common and are expected to continue. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph north of the cold front have been common, with wind chill values of 0 to -15F from Tulsa north. In northwest Arkansas the highest snow totals will be along the MO border, with amounts trending down towards Fort Smith.
(This evening through Friday) The Arctic cold front has cleared the area this morning, leaving behind bitterly cold temperatures in the teens and 20s and wind chills near zero. After a cold start to the day, we will see highs remaining well below freezing, in the mid to upper 20s, for Friday afternoon.
A low pressure system is moving onshore the coast of the Carolinas. Will go ahead and issue a Wind Advisory for much of the CWA, but will also go ahead and issue a High Wind Warning for the higher terrain in the NE.