Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 A cold front stretched across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The upslope flow behind the cold front should help to produce low clouds, especially across the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the western Texas Panhandle. The low level moisture may combine with the upper level dynamics from a passing vort max overnight to produce some sprinkles or flurries in the northwestern CWA. A cooler day on Monday is expected across all of the Panhandles behind the front.
In the lower levels, moist southerlies dominate the next 36 hours allowing PWATs to improve to about 1.
The moisture and best dynamics associated with the trough of low pressure that impacted our area yesterday has moved to the east. This will make for a breezy to windy day for the lower valleys, especially where northwest winds are favored.
The other branch of the mid level flow extended from northern British Columbia to a closed low near the southern part of the Manitoba/Ontario border. Closer to home, a cold front had pushed through all of eastern NE and southwest IA as of mid afternoon. Highs will be quite a bit cooler than the past two days, reaching mainly 45 to 50.
304 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure centered near the Carolinas supports moderate northeast to east breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 70s and dewpoints have recovered into the mid 50s. A long wave trough axis stretches southwest through California, then phases into a nearly straight jet streak which extends across the Baja, Texas, and the northern Gulf Coast.
Cold front wind shift has made into central WY as of 10Z, yet the temps have not cooled all that much early this morning.
Expect the upper 40s to the lower 50s for highs for the day.
With daytime heating, strong winds have led to warmer air being mixed down to the surface. A cold front was moving across Iowa and will serve as a foci for shower development this evening. Discussion: CU starting to develop just south of the area indicates that showery rain is expected as the cold front moves through the area later.
256 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warm and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. Building high pressure under SW flow will allow temperatures to exceed the climatological average today and tonight. As the axis of the ridge moves east, warm advection will continue and moisture advection will increase. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will pass through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
A cold front stretching from the Uintas to west central Utah will slide southward across the region today and exit southeast Utah late this evening. High pressure will build back into the area for the remainder of the work week. The cold front front has surged southward into central Utah well ahead of the 700mb baroclinic support aloft.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower teens tonight as northwest winds usher in a colder Canadian airmass.
1155 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Upper level ridging will shift eastward over the Great Lakes region today, with westerly flow aloft becoming established across our area as an upper level trough/closed low digs southward along the coast of California. This will push a cold front south through region. The week ahead looks to be mainly dry as the upper low currently off the California coast heads east across the far southern portions of the country.
316 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Short Term (Rest of Today-Monday): High pressure continues to slide eastward over the Florida peninsula and then eventually into the Atlantic. With the easterly component making all the difference allowing temperatures to slowly moderate and overnight lows be around 10 degrees higher than this morning Lows tonight will be in the low 50s near the Lake region, mid to upper 50s interior and Gulf coast, Low to mid 60s for the east coast. Otherwise, locked in under the dome of high pressure fairly benign weather to begin the week.
The convection will push east by Monday morning as the low level jet moves out of the area. The atmosphere should be recovered from the morning rainfall by late afternoon Monday as a cold front sinks south into the Mid-South.
This should keep any fire weather concerns somewhat in check, as the highest wind speeds today will be offset from peak heating and the lowest humidities. There may be a period of VFR ceilings for Northwest Arkansas late afternoon/early evening before precip chances develop ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the region. The cold front looks to move through Northeast Oklahoma this evening with some scattered MVFR possible behind the front.
1215 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Winds from the south will advect warmer air into the region overnight. Low temperatures will not decrease that much, but slightly dip into the low 20s and low 30s. Several variables to evaluate for this forecast include snow cover, snow melting, morning low temperatures, warm air advection strength, and timing of the cold front. The main concern is the cold front. If the front passes sooner before maximum heating, the high temperatures will be cooler. Further east where the front passes over later in the day, high temperatures are in the low 50s.
221 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warm and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. Building high pressure under SW flow will allow temperatures to exceed the climatological average today and tonight. As the axis of the ridge moves east, warm advection will continue and moisture advection will increase. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will press through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
1026 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure centered over the Carolinas supports fresh northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Most locations are only in the lower to mid 60s. The forecast calls for a fairly breezy day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s. From synopsis, high pressure over the Carolinas will slide southeast into the western North Atlantic this afternoon and tonight, then continue moving farther offshore to near Bermuda by Monday evening.
446 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Large-scale pattern continues to show a positively-tilted trough over the western US this afternoon. Much colder temperatures are expected on Monday with snow showers continuing to produce light snow over the higher terrain. Scattered snow showers over the higher terrain will diminish Monday night with partial clearing expected.
450 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 For the 00z TAFs: Through the first part of the TAF, VFR conditions are expected at all three terminals, but we may see some MVFR cloud decks behind the cold front later tonight into Monday morning for a brief period. /Issued 225 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020/ A cold front stretched across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The upslope flow behind the cold front should help to produce low clouds, especially across the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the western Texas Panhandle. The low level moisture may combine with the upper level dynamics from a passing vort max overnight to produce some sprinkles or flurries in the northwestern CWA. A cooler day on Monday is expected across all of the Panhandles behind the front.
918 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure will move offshore through tonight.
The trough that brought us mountain snow is digging down the CA coast and in the process of closing off. Vorticity advection over areas south of I-80 will keep a slight chance for showers in the forecast into the early evening with the best chances over the higher terrain. Shower chances diminish by early evening as the low pushes south. These breezy winds will continue for the next few hours and we should see them spread south some into the central Sac Valley as the low pushes south. The upper level low will be tracking into SoCal on Monday and that will keep a tight pressure gradient over NorCal.
A secondary cold front was moving into northwest MN and should drop southeast this evening and exit western WI by Monday morning. Another trough/front moves into the area later Monday afternoon/Monday night and should increase clouds again. The upper trough digs a bit farther south and may be enough to generate a few snow showers/flurries into the northeast portion of the CWA later during the night.
Did note some drier air and warmer temperatures near the Colorado border, which may be resulting in lower precip rates south of I-80. Slick and icy roads expected early Monday morning before temperatures increase to near or above freezing by noon.
622 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure moves to off the southeast coast tonight.
Colder air will filter into northeast MO and west central IL late tonight behind the cold front, but mild conditions will continue across southeast MO and southwest IL.
427 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warmer weather will arrive Monday as high pressure moves off the coast.
A cold frontal boundary bisected the forecast area this afternoon at 20Z as it extended from near Falls City to near Manhattan to south central Kansas. Areas of southeast into far east central Kansas have seen dewpoints rise into the lower 50s this afternoon. Tonight a mid level trough, which was over Montana this afternoon, will move southeast into Wyoming and Colorado. Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 30s. The mid level trough will move across Nebraska and Kansas on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday night, A mid level trough will move across the northern and central Plains and sweep another frontal boundary through the area.
Highs will climb into the low/mid 70s for most of the area Monday afternoon.
A cold front reaching from the Great Lakes to Texas will approach the Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of it, warm air and moisture will surge northward behind high pressure off the Carolina coast. A moderate low level jet from the lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern Lakes will aid in moisture transport and a few elevated rumbles of thunder may be heard in western Kentucky after midnight. Although dew points are in the 30s this afternoon, with strong warm advection and thickening cloud cover tonight will still go on the warm side of guidance for lows as we get deeper into the warm sector, from the mid/upper 40s in the Blue Grass to the low 50s west. On Monday the cold front will continue its advancement and will arrive in central Kentucky by mid to late afternoon.
A weak cold front, located over Minnesota this afternoon, will move over the forecast area late this evening. Ahead of the cold front, surface temperatures at 3 PM warmed to the middle to upper 40s, with some locations in the lower 50s. As the cold front reaches the forecast area late this evening, clouds will be on the increase mainly for central and north-central Wisconsin. Since this cold front is lacking moisture, dry conditions are expected overnight. By Monday morning, an area of high pressure will settle over the Central Plains.
A chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers mainly Monday evening and night along with much cooler temperatures.
248 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Large-scale pattern continues to show a positively-tilted trough over the western US this afternoon. Much colder temperatures are expected on Monday with snow showers continuing to produce light snow over the higher terrain. Scattered snow showers over the higher terrain will diminish Monday night with partial clearing expected.
321 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 A warm and moist airmass has entrenched itself within much of the forecast area as of early this afternoon, south of a cold front that stretched from Manhattan KS to Maryville MO. As the slow-moving cold front pushes south this evening, shallow scattered convection is expected to develop in our far southeastern CWA - from Clinton to Sedalia to Columbia - and push southeast out of the area by mid-evening.
939 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure moves to off the southeast coast tonight.
356 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Split trough continues to drift southward across the western US, with the main cutoff low off the California coast. The diffluent area to the east of this trough is currently across southern WY, where the only remaining snowfall continues. Weak ridging will take over for the res of the night and into the day Monday. Some light snowfall may return Monday night for the western mountains as the next wave sweeps well to the north, increasing the upslope flow along the higher peaks.
The sun is warming temperatures up, but the north winds are strong enough to make it feel cooler. Winds turn to the west behind the high pressure system and there will be some warm advection.
557 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warm and dry conditions are expected today under high pressure. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will pass through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
Low temperatures in the low 20s west, mid to upper 20s east. On Monday models are hinting at another disturbance moving east across the area ahead of an approaching upper trough. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s in far eastern Colorado, mid 20s to around 30 elsewhere.
On Monday night, a better area of moisture will ride over the ridge bringing snow showers to northwest Montana and central Idaho.
A cold front stretching from the Uintas to west central Utah will slide southward across the region today and exit southeast Utah late this evening. High pressure will build back into the area for the remainder of the work week.
931 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warmer weather will arrive Monday as high pressure moves off the coast.
Northerly winds will be gusty in many areas through the evening, with strongest winds expected across NW Nye County and some of the higher terrain across the region.
Lows average in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s in cooler spots across the nrn interior and warmer along the beaches from the Cape to the Treasure Coast.
Fast zonal flow carrying Pacific moisture over the region in the upper levels will continue through tomorrow, while backing some to the southwest ahead of an upper level low strengthening just off the CA coast. A cold front will slide south into areas north of Interstate 20 during the late morning and afternoon hours. Temperatures will likely only reach the mid 60s north of I-20, and may cool behind the cold front during the afternoon. Lows tonight will be warm in the low to mid 50s under the mid and upper level clouds.
A low pressure system dropping down the California Coast through early Monday will produce gusty winds across our region and scattered to numerous showers spreading from north to south. Some snow can be expected in the higher terrain with the most significant amounts in the southern Sierra and also Lincoln County.
The main upper low with this storm system continues to dig southward along the California coast this afternoon with a weaker northern branch of the trof over the Northern Rockies. QG diagnostics indicates only weak upward ascent through midnight, then becoming increasing subsident flow on Monday as the northern branch of upper trof. Main cold front just now moving across the northern border areas with a rather weak pressure rise cross central wyoming. Behind this trof, cross sections showing some winds over the mountains of 20-40 mph Monday afternoon. Skies will be clearing Monday night with perhaps just a few flurries along the high mountains in the early evening.
552 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Afternoon temperatures running cooler than yesterday's values in most locations as an earlier frontal passage has resulted in persistent, although muddled, CAA. Additionally, an impulse running through the base of the mid level trough could be enough to spark a few sprinkles or flurries but with meager moisture, not worth a mention in the forecast at this point.
The area of low pressure that will impact the weather over Arizona is currently off the California Coast south of the Bay Area this afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers will increase this evening and overnight as the low center gets closer to Arizona.
619 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warmer weather will arrive Monday as high pressure moves off the coast.
353 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Split trough continues to drift southward across the western US, with the main cutoff low off the California coast. The diffluent area to the east of this trough is currently across southern WY, where the only remaining snowfall continues. Weak ridging will take over for the res of the night and into the day Monday. Some light snowfall may return Monday night for the western mountains as the next wave sweeps well to the north, increasing the upslope flow along the higher peaks.
321 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 At 21Z, temperatures are beginning to cool behind the cold front. A weak cold front moves in Monday night as a northern stream upper trough axis approaches.
553 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 At 21Z, temperatures are beginning to cool behind the cold front. A weak cold front moves in Monday night as a northern stream upper trough axis approaches.
518 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from the western tip of Upper Michigan to Dubuque IA. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s west of the Mississippi River and from the lower 40s to lower 50s for the remainder of the area.
The convection will push east by Monday morning as the low level jet moves out of the area. The atmosphere should be recovered from the morning rainfall by late afternoon Monday as a cold front sinks south into the Mid- South.
928 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure moves to off the southeast coast tonight.
However, a cold front will attempt to move through the area early Monday morning. Monday will be a challenging day for highs as a cold front will arrive sometime early Monday morning and stall out across the forecast area in the afternoon. Went with the higher-resolution models timing and position of the front which will likely result in a pretty good gradient in temperatures from northeast to southwest. Jordan A southern Pacific jet is quite prominent on water vapor imagery this afternoon, responsible for the high clouds we've been seeing.
1103 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 For the 06z TAFs: VFR conditions are still expected at all three terminals to begin the period, but we may see some MVFR cloud decks behind the cold front later tonight into Monday morning for a brief period (all three sites). /Issued 225 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020/ A cold front stretched across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The upslope flow behind the cold front should help to produce low clouds, especially across the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the western Texas Panhandle. The low level moisture may combine with the upper level dynamics from a passing vort max overnight to produce some sprinkles or flurries in the northwestern CWA. A cooler day on Monday is expected across all of the Panhandles behind the front.
1129 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from the western tip of Upper Michigan to Dubuque IA. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s west of the Mississippi River and from the lower 40s to lower 50s for the remainder of the area.
However, a cold front was slowing moving through the region late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Monday will be a challenging day for highs as a cold front will arrive sometime early Monday morning and stall out across the forecast area in the afternoon. Went with the higher-resolution models timing and position of the front which will likely result in a pretty good gradient in temperatures from northeast to southwest. Jordan A southern Pacific jet is quite prominent on water vapor imagery this afternoon, responsible for the high clouds we've been seeing.
248 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Warmer temperatures expected as high pressure moves off the coast. Rain chances will increase tonight through midweek as a cold front drops south.
As the front continues to sag south, the 700mb trough will move in behind it. This will occur in advance of the mid level trough pushing through the area and bring a slight chance for additional showers and storms for areas mainly east of Highway 65 and south of I-44 this evening.
353 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Showers return today with warmer temperatures.
220 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Today's cold front is indeed of schedule having already moved south to near a Happy to Northfield line. Have trended the forecast to the hi-res models that take the cold front through the forecast area by 18Z.
These lower ceilings should stay in place much of the day before the low ceilings can move out by the mid to late afternoon hours resulting in VFR conditions once again.
1217 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Warmer temperatures expected as high pressure moves off the coast. Rain chances will increase tonight through midweek as a cold front drops south.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly along a cold front moving through the northern part of the state Monday morning. Ceilings will rise to well above VFR as rainfall exits the region late Monday as the cold front exits the state to the east.
VFR lowering to MVFR (IFR late at CHA) from the west through the period as moisture advects into the region ahead of midweek cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 53 67 51 58 / 90 70 90 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 50 66 49 58 / 90 70 90 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 53 50 66 47 60 / 90 80 90 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 45 62 44 57 / 90 90 90 50 40.
1017 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 A warm and moist airmass has entrenched itself within much of the forecast area as of early this afternoon, south of a cold front that stretched from Manhattan KS to Maryville MO. As the slow-moving cold front pushes south this evening, shallow scattered convection is expected to develop in our far southeastern CWA - from Clinton to Sedalia to Columbia - and push southeast out of the area by mid-evening.
(Today and tonight) As lower level ridge builds into the region behind a relatively weak cold front, we will see gusty north winds through this morning with a gradual decrease through the afternoon hours. With the cooler temperatures/higher humidities, fire weather conditions will be low despite the gusty wind. The cooler air coming in today is not all that cold compared to early March standards, with todays forecast highs near or just a few degrees below average.
Overall snow projections through Monday remain generally an inch or less above 5,500 ft, with a few inches possible over the highest mountain peaks.
A weak cold front pushing through the CWA will produce breezy north to northeast winds through the overnight and into Monday morning around 10-20 mph.
342 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 The morning surface analysis shows a high pressure has pushed well east of the Ohio Valley and a cold front is pushing into the Midwest. However we will see the frontal boundary push southeast toward Kentucky tonight and a wave of low pressure will develop along this boundary near the Ozarks pushing northeast as it does. This wave will push northeast and the cold front will push southeast, as the larger upper level trough axis pushes into the Great Lakes.
1252 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020 Showers return today with warmer temperatures.
Strong storm system expected to bring heavy rainfall and possible We've got one more dry, warm day before the spigot opens up and gives us some welcome rain! Flow aloft will transition to the SW today as an upper low digs along the West Coast of the U. Low level moisture will quickly push west overnight as heights begin to lower in response the approaching upper low.
This storm will move into northwest Mexico as high pressure aloft builds into the Great Basin beginning early this week.
1127 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 At 21Z, temperatures are beginning to cool behind the cold front. A weak cold front moves in Monday night as a northern stream upper trough axis approaches.
Northwest flow aloft will continue through Monday as a ridge remains off the west coast.