Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
910 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
855 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THROUGH THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH GOOD COLD AIR MOVING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTROLLING THE ENVIRONMENT. WE EXPECT A WIND SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OFF THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
1020 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN.
A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURG THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO AND ERN NM WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
1022 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
633 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
928 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID- WEEK WHILE A FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE NORTH.
703 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
749 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS.
A WEAK WAVE IS TOPPING THE ROCKIES RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS. A DRY AIRMASS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET THE STEADY SOUTH WINDS SOMEWHAT SO HAVE MINS TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT WITH A WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WE MAY SEE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
915 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LA WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH INITIALLY COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE WINDS DECREASE OVER INLAND AREAS. AT THE BEACHES THE SEAS ARE ON THE DECLINE WITH THE HIGH SEAS AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORIES EXPIRING THIS EVENING. VFR CONTINUES WITH WITH DECREASING WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
1025 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURED CENTERED SOUTH OF US HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 30S WEST OF I-65. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO BE OUR BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO REACH FREEZING OR SEE FROST.
725 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 A cool and breezy day is underway this afternoon, with early afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS EVENING HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED SUPPORTIVE OF THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS BEING OBSERVED. A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THIS MAY JUMP BLUE DIAMOND RIDGE AND IMPACT THSTEELEE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
60 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 435 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016/ THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO EASE. SO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ARE THE LOWER 40S. THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A THE MODERATING AFFECT OF A NORTHERLY (SLIGHTLY ONSHORE WIND). NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD STEADILY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
/ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ THE CENTER OF AN OLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY RETURNING.
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
1018 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WED-THU STORM IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND EXPANDING EAST. BUT EVENTUALLY WHEN THE TROUGH OUT WEST BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
723 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF HAS ALLOWED RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN WARMING REGIME. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER RIDGE. ON TUESDAY STRONGER WAVE WILL BEGIN PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH CENTRAL PLAINS.
ONE MORE MILD NIGHT ON TAP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE LATEST UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR ALOFT PROMOTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LOW WAS STRENGTHENING OFF COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SERN MONTANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
910 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR MAXIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINIMUM TEMPS AROUND FREEZING FOR AREAS NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT. LOCATIONS NEAR THE ATLANTIC AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME RATHER BENIGN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
1142 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN.
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TWIN PORTS OVERNIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE LOW 30S. THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
These winds will continue to be gusty along with increasing cloud cover Tuesday evening ahead of an approaching cold front and dry line. Southerly winds will be even stronger Tuesday, and temperatures will be warmer, so the wind advisory and red flag warning look good at this time.
855 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
1009 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN.
A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO AND ERN NM WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
The strong winds will continue and even increase a few KTS over the next 24 hours as a lee trough strengthens in the South Plains.
1254 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WARMER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 3-8KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE ENHANCED AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
1153 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
Surface ridging stretching from the western Gulf up into the Midwest will slowly shift eastward overnight. Meanwhile weak ridging will build in aloft across the forecast area. For tonight temperatures will dip back into the 30s in many locations, warmer than last night. Given the low RH, windy conditions, and dry fuels, there will be a heightened fire danger tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday night will be quiet with much warmer temps, only dipping into the upper 40s to around 50.
737 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
644 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 High pressure axis sliding eastward across the state this afternoon. The west-southwest wind flow will turn more southerly as the ridge axis shifts eastward. These winds will keep temperatures up quite a bit from last night, with lows generally in the lower 40s. Tightening pressure gradient over IL Tue with high pressure over the southeast states and low pressure deepening to near 990mb by sunset Tue near KS/CO border with warm front nearing the WI/IL border.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE ENHANCED AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT WINDS NEAR 3-8KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS. /ISSUED 219 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EVACUATING TO THE EAST.
936 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND RETURNING MOISTURE ONLY ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S /ALMOST 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOCATIONS/. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY /15-25 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE/ AND WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY WERE INCREASED AS A RESULT. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS.
Throughout the forecast period, clear skies will prevail as high pressure remains across the region. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s inland with the normally colder locations possibly dropping to the freezing mark.
DRY AIR AROUND WITH THIS HIGH WITH DELAY PRECIP OVER UPR GREAT LAKES UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO NORTH OF WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL QPF/SNOW FM UPSLOPE OVER NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO TONIGHT THEN UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND LO PRES CENTERS RUNNING ALONG A LO PRES TROUGH IN THE LOWER LAKES. NE WINDS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN WITH A HI PRES RIDGE ON FRI.
Southerly winds will be even stronger Tuesday, and temperatures will be warmer, so the wind advisory and red flag warning look good at this time.
1122 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016/ TEMPS AT 10 PM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S WITH LOW 30S DEWPOINTS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR LOCATIONS W OF I65 OVERNIGHT (LOW/MID 30S). HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
717 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
Trough of low pressure over the region is producing showers over the interior aside from the last part of the frontal band over the Sierra Nevada. By then the showers should be winding down so not much in the way of accumulations other than a dusting is expected at the lower elevations. The low will be moving east during the day on Tuesday but some lingering showers are expected during the day.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS MAY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
WINDS HAVE MOSTLY GONE CALM FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI. WAA WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NOT MUCH TO PUT IN AVIATION DISCUSSION AS GOOD FLYING WEATHER IN STORE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE BAY AREA. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PARENT STORM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH.
1151 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING TROF OVER WY. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP INTO OUR FAR EAST TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS NEAR MILES CITY AND BAKER. BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY.
416 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1050 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LOWERING AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER SOCAL AND INTO NW OLD MEXICO BY 12/12Z. SFC LEE TROF AT 17Z TO WEAKEN WITH SWD MOVING CDFNT ALIGNED ALONG INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY 12/12Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY INTO TEXAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS N OF NM CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN AND A DECENT LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNTIL IT BEGINS TO EXIT NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX.
In addition, an upper level low is currently digging into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, an intensifying area of low pressure and associated cold front will move out of eastern Colorado and through the CWA by sunrise tomorrow. The upper level low currently over the Desert southwest will dig southward and move across northern Mexico tomorrow then into the Southern Plains tomorrow night. An area of low pressure will also intensify across the Southern Plains tomorrow as this feature approaches with winds across western Kansas shifting to more of a northeasterly direction. As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from around freezing along the KS/CO border to around 50 degrees across south central Kansas. The bulk of the precipitation will likely be south of Kansas through this week as the aforementioned upper level low remains to our south and eventually southeast.
434 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
338 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
The eastern Ozarks may not experience much tonight as forcing with this activity starts to dissipate prior to getting into the Highway 63 corridor.
306 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND SETTLE DUE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WHILE WE HAVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH CONTINUING TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IN TO THE AREA. ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 55 KTS FROM ERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MLCAPE AND ABOUT 30 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. AS THE H300 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US MORPHS INTO A CUTOFF LOW ON TUESDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGED NORTH THROUGH THROUGH IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PERHAPS ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURES WITH THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ARE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY SPRING LIKE.
TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW LEVELS ARE 2500 TO 4000 FEET WITH THE LOWER VALUES OVER THE WEST SIDE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY MORNING.
Well defined upper low center off the SFO Bay area coast will be phasing with energy dropping SEwd along the coast on the backside of the upper trof today.
354 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA CONTINUES TO CHURN SEWD. THIS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO INTENSIFY/SPREAD FURTHER E AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SRN AZ/NRN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
1200 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
SFC DRYLINE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES WHILE A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE WESTERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THRU ALL TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. BECOMING WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT. KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN SAMPLING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KT IN THE LOWEST 2000 FOOT LEVELS ALL NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH- RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SIMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE ATTEMPTED INITIATION (ALTHOUGH NOT CONSISTENTLY) WITH A SMALL AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THAT COULD IMPACT MITCHELL AND JEWELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND THAYER AND FILLMORE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A SE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S COAST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WELL INLAND.
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 2500 TO 4000 FEET WITH THE LOWER VALUES OVER THE WEST SIDE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ,MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMATION REMAINS ON TRACK TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AS THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MIDLEVEL EDGING THE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME BUILDS EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SCT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
1258 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.
UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.