Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Visible satellite imagery does not reveal much cyclonic curvature in the low level streamlines, nor do the low level vorticity analyses from CIMSS. Water vapor imagery highlights a compact upper level cyclone centered near Bimini. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes will prevail across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through the forecast period as high pressure persists to our north.
Deep layer ridging north of ECFL providing a deep easterly flow across the area.
/Issued 441 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020/ For today and tonight, the rather broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region, with pops restricted to the western OK Panhandle and far nwrn TX Panhandle late this afternoon and evening.
Surface pressure gradients are trending gradually more onshore, and the result is a little cooler temperatures and slightly stronger breezes across much of the area compared to 24 hours ago.
607 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure will persist. Strong subtropical high pressure will remain positioned across the Southeast United States today. Hot and muggy conditions will persist with H8 temperatures and low-level thickness schemes supporting highs in the lower-mid 90s away from the beaches with heat indices generally in the 100-105 range. Warm and muggy conditions will persist with lows in the lower-mid 70s inland with near 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
601 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. An upper ridge will remain overhead centered just to our north. Better moisture and an upper impulse along with orographic effects or convergence along a lee side trough may promote scattered thunderstorms mainly to our north which may drift SE and remain intact into our N/NE FA, per latest high res models. The upper ridge may weaken slightly over the area as the center of the ridge moves slightly westward.
Cells are moving to the west at 15 to 20 knots within the low-level flow as a result of persistent high pressure to our north (the center of which is off the coast of New England).
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley maintains VFR conditions today under mostly sunny skies with WSW wind at 10 to 15 kt. * None Southeast Michigan will hold position through the weekend period at the northern edge of a sprawling 595 dm upper high that extends west to east almost coast to coast across the southern conus.
633 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure will build east across the region later today and remain through Saturday.
249 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and Saturday with dry conditions.
121 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Region remains under high pressure centered over the northern Ohio Valley maintaining favorable aviation conditions. * None Southeast Michigan will hold position through the weekend period at the northern edge of a sprawling 595 dm upper high that extends west to east almost coast to coast across the southern conus.
The upper level ridge will continue to drift slightly northward during the next 24 hours. Expect hot and dry conditions to continue Saturday, but highs will be a few degrees cooler, mainly mid 90s to around 100.
Dry conditions will persist the remainder of the afternoon and overnight with building high pressure.
1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Warmer and more humid conditions will be noted across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Heat and humiditiy will continue to increase for Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, along with heat index of 105 to 110.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Mid/Upper level inverted trough axis approaches and moves west of the Texas coast tonight working its way west of the Rio Grande river Saturday evening. Model pop guidance and deterministic forecast have trended lower with rain chances spreading east to west along and east of the trough axis however this is likely due to the 12Z deterministic model run dampening the inverted trough as it tracks inland tonight and west of the Rio Grande tomorrow evening. Later in the afternoon the western half of the CWA looks to be a more favored area for development due to closer proximity to the weakening inverted trough.
Dry conditions will persist tonight with building high pressure.
While we can't completely rule out a few streamer showers early Saturday morning, the low-level jet looks rather weak (~20kt) and we will opt to not mention and light showers at this time. On Saturday, expect another warm day across south central Texas with highs in the lower 90s to near 100.
Another hot day tomorrow, though models keep things somewhat cooler in our southeast counties.
851 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure to the east will bring warming into the weekend with weekend high temperatures within a few degrees of average.
206 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Low pressure tracking into Quebec early this morning with a trailing weak cold front will produce a few showers and storms today. High pressure builds Saturday with dry and warm conditions.
The remnant of a cold front will move through the area in the afternoon hours. This will bring stronger afternoon winds to ridge lines and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening. A strong thermal trough pattern will bring northerly gales to areas south of Cape Blanco and generally beyond 2NM from shore.
Latest surface obs also reveal temperatures over much of our area hovering in the low 70s. Unfortunately, those temps will be rather short lived as breezy southerly winds after daybreak work to funnel rich WAA across the region, causing temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. An even hotter day is in store Saturday, as temperatures across the region soar into the low to upper 90s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
Atmosphere across the area is rather dry for this time of year, courtesy of ridging throughout the southeast US. The heat will continue with highs in the low/mid 90s and feels like temperatures reaching the low 100s.
There is expected cold front which will be entering the far northeast corner towards supper time Saturday evening. A cold front will push down into the forecast area Saturday evening, increasing precipitable water values and CAPE, with upslope flow that may keep convection going through the evening.
Gradual cooling is then expected through midweek, with the marine layer deepening again as a weak trough affects the West Coast. This trough will help restrict monsoon potential to areas well east of our forecast area through the next seven days. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO The next seven days will see largely seasonal conditions, with minor and gradual fluctuations in local weather as the broad high pressure to our east waxes and wanes. Slight westward enhancement of this ridge over the weekend will help compress the marine layer somewhat, but low clouds won't disappear altogether.
219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 As we move into the heart of summer the pattern is well placed with an upper level high sprawled across the southern US. Without any boundaries and the upper high firmly entrenched at best an isolated storm may form, but the chance is too low to mention in any given location. Diurnal forcing appears enough to mention afternoon storms, additionally a trough will move across the central US before digging more deeply across the eastern US latter in the week.
An expansive W-E ridge will reside over the midsection of the CONUS, which keeps the Atlantic ridge axis north of Florida, with deep layer easterlies persist as a result. Not too far from climo: Inland maxes a few degrees warmer than coastal areas, which in turn will be slightly warmer at night. Deep layer ridging north of ECFL continuing to provide deep easterly flow across the area. Persistent E to ESE flow, mainly in the 10-15kt range, with seas 2-3ft, possibly briefly reaching 4ft well offshore this weekend, however given the high bias of the wave models, wouldn't be surprised to them stay AOB 3ft through the period.
Weak cold front will pass through late today and this evening bringing breezy west winds. Saturday will be several degrees cooler as upper trough passes through.
Due to the area of high pressure set up over the Four Corners and its wide west-east extent, we are starting to see a surge of monsoonal moisture and will continue to through the forecast period. Looking at forecast soundings, the low levels are expected to remain dry, meaning very little, if any, measurable rainfall will result.
Have kept a slight chance in over the higher terrain where elevated heat sources should allow enough instability for isolated development. Further east inverted trough is already triggering shower activity this morning and should provide upper level support to diurnal heating. This morning's satellite and upper-air analysis shows a broad anticyclone centered over north- central Texas that encompasses most of the southern United States. In addition, an inverted trough can be seen over northwest Mexico that is rotating around the high. Forecast soundings predict that instability will remain in the low category again today, with CAPE of less than 400 J/kg. This makes sense given that the highest dewpoints are generally across eastern Arizona.
An upper level ridge maintains its hold aloft over the southeastern CONUS and will persist through the first part of the weekend. High temperatures are likely to reach the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, with some areas already reaching the lower 90s early this afternoon. Little relief will come tonight, as lows will only drop into the lower 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south.
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. The upper ridge may weaken slightly over the area as the center of the ridge moves slightly westward.
344 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 This afternoon, the broad upper ridge remained over the southern CONUS from the Mid-Atlantic through the Desert Southwest. A cutoff upper low was positioned off the coast of California with a trough progressing through the northwest US. There will be little relief from the muggy conditions tonight with lows only falling into the upper 70s and dew points staying in the low 70s. As the low-level jet strengthens tonight, there could be enough isentropic ascent for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms after midnight. Persistent moisture transport maintains dew points in the low to mid 70s creating heat index values approaching 110 degrees.
Of interest for us in the westerlies to our north is a trough, seen starting to buckle the jet stream across the Pacific Northwest. This particular feature is off importance to us as it will drive a cold front south into the Central Plains late in the weekend, providing us with a chance for storms, and perhaps some revolve from the heat. expect it to be hot and humid as the prevailing thermal ridge across the Plains States continues to wallow over Kansas and northwest Missouri. This setup pushed afternoon highs into the low to mid 90s today, with Heat index readings hitting 105 degrees by the early afternoon hours, and we expect even more oppressive conditions for tomorrow.
Cooler air will move in behind the front tonight. Low pressure will again move through the state on Saturday, potentially generating some showers and thunderstorms across eastern SD during the afternoon and evening.
Widespread high pressure will bring in hot a humid conditions this weekend, which could have heat indices into the 100s.
The H5 ridge that has been centered over N TX the past few days has lifted north over OK. The ridge will remain fairly strong thru Saturday, keeping afternoon storm potential outside of our region.
248 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain as a result of peak heating. Tomorrow the midlevel high pressure is still expected to split from the plains and move over the region, which means deeper westerlies into our area and drier air as the moisture plume is forced to the east. The drier conditions will again push afternoon temperatures upward with upper 90s to triple digits returning to the lower deserts.
All of the high-res HREF ensemble cams generate some activity through this corridor between about 1 PM and 8 PM.
1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Warmer and more humid conditions will be noted across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Heat and humidity will continue to increase for Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, along with heat index of 105 to 110.
Usually northwest flow is prevalent along the coast thanks to high pressure over the Pacific. Today on the other hand we have light to moderate south flow along the coast as a result of a weak area of low pressure to the south. Heading into the weekend high pressure currently to the SE slowly nudges its way westward. The building high pressure will do two things:compress the marine layer a tad and allow for slight inland warming.
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Saturday and Saturday Night: An expansive upper level ridge will weaken just slightly over the area as the center of the ridge shifts slightly farther to the west. At the surface, a weak lee side trough will be in place across the area. High temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the lower 70s in many areas will result in heat index values of 100-104F. Nighttime temperatures will be mild, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Dewpoints were as low as 38 at Alliance, while across the east as high as the lower 70s. On Saturday, the models remain in very good agreement warming 850MB temperatures to 30C to 34C south of an advancing cold front. In addition, A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms near and east of a line from North Platte through Bassett along the leading edge of the cold front. The upper level ridge will remain centered across the Southern U.
National Blend of Models output is a few to several degrees warmer than numerical guidance/MOS/soundings so won't be surprised if the forecast is running a bit on the hot side, but time will tell.
344 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure moving to the southeast will continue to provide dry weather tonight.
Due to the pressure gradient between the mid level ridge and short wave, winds have picked up at most locations and will continue with red flag warnings that will remain in effect for much of central Wyoming until 02Z tonight. This system will filter in some slightly cooler air especially into northern and into central sections by 12Z Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure will remain to our north centered around 30 to 32 degrees north latitude.
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Heat and humidity will continue to increase for Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, along with heat index of 105 to 110.
TWH A warm and dry conditions will continue today before cooling off behind a cold front on Friday. There is moisture aloft that will support storm formation but these are expected to be dry thunderstorms as the lower elevations continue to have RH's that drop down into the mid to upper teens. SPC has placed areas northwest of Billings in a marginal (isolated severe storms) as there are steep lapse rates that will be behind the cold front that will move through. Temperatures have cooled back towards normal but RH's will still drop into the low to mid 20s for most locations. Saturday will be cooler behind the cold front with highs in the mid 80s.
318 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Tonight and Saturday: Very little in the way of convection has been able to manifest this afternoon as lower PWs underneath the mid/upper level ridge has spread over the area. This will be the rule again Saturday as this ridge remains draped over north MS and continues to suppress convective development. While most areas are seeing heat indices in the lower 100s this afternoon, some mixing of drier air down from aloft has made it seemingly more difficult to reach 105.
249 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A mid level trough was in place over eastern Colorado this afternoon. ahead of the trough southerly winds were common across western KS. In the closer term - the western edge of the heat advisory may have trouble reaching the criterion apparent T of 105, however the higher dew points in the 70s farther west will give it a shot. Saturday there will be a better setup for thunderstorms as a cold front begins to push southward out of Nebraska and convection at some point is likely to unzip near the cold front dryline interface in northern Kansas.
1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure continues over the area this afternoon. The overall upper air pattern will continue to drive hot and humid conditions, as an upper lvl anticyclone spreads over much of the Srn and S/Ern US.
This will boost temps in the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
Dewpoint values are the highest across eastern portions of the area, where they were expected. regardless it'll be HOT! Thunderstorms: Tonight will be quiet, but the cold front that will bring some relief to our stretch of heat. This brings a quieter forecast for Saturday into high gear, as many of the high-res guidance solutions indicate the potential for thunderstorms to fire along the front Saturday afternoon.
245 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 WV imagery shows the upper ridge still centered over north central Texas, although is has shifted slightly west over the past 24 hours, and extending east thru the Carolinas and beyond. Temps Sat will be a bit cooler than today, w/the warmest temps shifting to the nrn CWA as the ridge drifts north. A weak inverted trough over the Big Bend Area will bifurcate the ridge, developing a col over Texas, and this will help keep a lid on things, as well. Rain chances remain paltry under the ridge, with isolated chances of convection each day generally confined to the higher terrain out west, mainly due to upslope flow.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ A broad and relatively flat upper ridge remains firmly anchored over the Southern CONUS. Daytime cu and light easterly winds have so far kept temperatures in the lower 90s, which has helped keep heat index values just below advisory criteria. With more of a southerly wind component Saturday and just as much, if not more sunshine, I see little reason why temperatures won't be as warm, if not warmer, on Saturday. Persistent lower clouds from the morning may help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler across portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20.
A decent cold frontal passage during the day will cool temperatures somewhat from today, with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s at lower elevations.
850 temperatures to nose upward on Saturday as the upper ridge builds and the center of the high locates over the forecast area on Saturday. Heat indices to reach into the low 100s over much of the forecast area as temperatures warm though may see increased mixing result in a decrease in dew points during the afternoon.
The ridge that has been stationed to our west the last few days is building into central OK. This ridge will remain strong into the weekend and inhibit any concern for storms around the TAF sites. The H5 ridge that has been centered over N TX the past few days has lifted north over OK. The ridge will remain fairly strong thru Saturday, keeping afternoon storm potential outside of our region.
/22/ Tonight and Saturday: Very little in the way of convection has been able to manifest this afternoon as lower PWs underneath the mid/upper level ridge has spread over the area. This will be the rule again Saturday as this ridge remains draped over north MS and continues to suppress convective development. While most areas are seeing heat indices in the lower 100s this afternoon, some mixing of drier air down from aloft has made it seemingly more difficult to reach 105.
A dry cold front will continue to move through southwest Idaho this evening, producing wind gusts up to 30 mph. Behind the front, temperatures on Saturday will be 5-10 degrees cooler with breezy northwest winds.
1032 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure builds in overnight and Saturday with dry conditions.
Expect the current line of storms to move to the east or southeast along the gradient of the highest CAPE values this evening. This will only increase later thanks to the low level jet and could lead to precipitable water values near 2 inches, which is near the climatological maximum for our area this time of year.
little if any convective activity is expected due to high pressure over the area.
Main trough axis is still to the west and there is quite a bit of rich instability feeding into those storms.
905 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Heat and humidity will continue to increase for Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, along with heat index of 105 to 110.
Looking for highs in the low to mid 90s both of those days. While we will keep some small pops in for Tue into Tue night over eastern KS as a weak upper impulse departs the region, the overall trend through these extended periods will be for upper ridging to build across the Plains into the southeast CONUS. At this point chances for showers or thunderstorms appears slim given slightly drier/warmer air aloft and much more southerly upper flow.
High cirrus passing through central OR and along OR/ID riding along periphery of trough axis centered over eastern WA/OR. Increasing heights aloft and ridging expected to lead to lower peak gusts tomorrow afternoon than today.
South to southwest winds will pick up tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough, with some low level wind shear possible by later Sat evening as a low level jet moves overhead. This will boost temps in the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
523 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and Saturday with dry conditions.
mid and high level clouds are expected to move into the area from the southwest during the day ahead of some troughiness in the 500mb flow. Isolated thunderstorms are possible east of a line from around McCook to Goodland and Kit Carson from mid to late afternoon into the evening where the better moisture profile works with afternoon heating and the weak upper troughiness approaching. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 60s.
The one exception remains over Gila county where enhanced convection assocaited with an inverted trough is slowly moving off the Mogollon Rim and into the lower elevations. Some isolated convection is expected to continue, especially over eastern portions of northern Arizona where additional instability of the inverted trough will allow for showers to continue into the overnight.
Typical summer weather will continue over northern California during the next seven days, characterized by warm to locally hot temperatures across the interior, near zero rain chances, and cooler temperatures with periods stratus occurring along the coast.
737 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 High pressure builds in tonight and Saturday with dry conditions.
551 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain as a result of peak heating. Tomorrow the midlevel high pressure is still expected to split from the plains and move over the region, which means deeper westerlies into our area and drier air as the moisture plume is forced to the east. The drier conditions will again push afternoon temperatures upward with upper 90s to triple digits returning to the lower deserts.