Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early morning water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a double barrel upper low spinning over the Great Basin and another closed low moving into central Manitoba. Freezing drizzle remains a concern across southern North Dakota this morning. Dickinson reported light freezing rain for over an hour. Have not received any ground reports of freezing drizzle or ice accumulation across the rest of the advisory, but with the presence of the mid level dry slot and mist also being reported at Hettinger, keeping the rest of the advisory in tact seems prudent. High pressure begins to settle over the region tonight.
The much discussed trough, currently centered over Arizona, will begin to move over the central Plains, undergo rapid cyclogenesis, leading to some exciting spring weather. Warm, moist air associated with a warm front, currently located in northern Kansas, is surging north. A cold front will move in behind the low pressure leading to strong cold air advection and northwest winds 30 to 35 mph, gusting over 40 mph. High temperatures Friday will struggle to get above freezing for much of the forecast area.
RA/TSRA will diminish from NW to SE ahead of an approaching cold front near the end of the period. With the warm front well north of the area and persistent swrly flow in place, the airmass in place today will be characterized by well above average temperatures and abundant moisture. With surface ridging to the southeast and an area of low pressure moving across the Southern Plains, srly winds at the sfc will be enhanced across the area with gusts between 20-30 mph at times. The cold front will progress across the state on Friday, limiting rain chances to mainly southern Arkansas. As surface ridging builds south toward the area, cooler air will settle in.
Tonight, a cold front will sweep southeast across Oklahoma and into north Texas. This will bring much cooler weather back into the region. Subfreezing temperatures are expected in the far northwest by Friday morning.
High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain overall dry conditions across the forecast area today. An approaching cold front from the west, while strong high pressure remains wedged over the region from the east, will result in a tightening pressure gradient across us today. Tonight, the cold front will approach the western portions of the CWA by day break Friday. A stout upper ridge will also have some hold still across the southeast part of the forecast area as it becomes elongated across Florida and portions of the Atlantic. Will remain with the inherited limited risk, but match it a little closer to the Slight risk from WPC and better hone in where the higher QPF amounts will be.
424 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Upper low clearly spinning across NW Arizona early this morning with satellite imagery suggesting intense lift across the 4 Corners region into SW Colorado. Looks a more convective mode setting up with the hi-res models favoring some heavier showers lining up along the high plateaus.
814 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Rain will increase in coverage again this afternoon, with additional showers and thunderstorms likely Friday with a crossing cold front. The weekend should yield dry, but cool conditions in high pressure. Brief ridging should suppress additional precipitation chances through early aftn despite sufficient boundary layer moisture evident in this morning's sounding out of PIT. Significant warm, moist advection should maintain extensive cloud cover ahead of an encroaching upstream trough. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger.
416 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Area is under the influence of onshore flow in advance of short- wave trough that is lifting through the central Plains States. The trough is ejecting in piecemeal fashion as it merges with the polar trough flow pattern over the Midwest States.
An increasing gradient of pressure will develop between a Midwest upper wave and Western Atlantic ridge through the day. Rising motion in the vicinity of a warm front edging its way north across the northern part of the Cumberland Plateau, as well as Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia, is generating a few showers in these areas. Although the southwest low level flow is not ideal for downslope warming and drying in the Great Valley, the low deck should become more scattered in nature as the day progresses, allowing for a bit of insolation through the mid deck ceiling.
We'll see lowering rain chances across the region with drier air cutting underneath the progressive trough and associated Pacific front. Strong mountain wave signature on models pinpoints a max wind across the Guadalupe's, prompting a continuation of the High Wind Warning through the morning and afternoon before tailing off after sunset. Winds will settle after sunset region-wide, but a cold front will motion south from the Panhandle and quickly traverse the area by Friday morning.
342 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A low pressure system will slowly move through the region bringing cooler and unsettled weather through the remainder of the week.
A few showers will linger through this afternoon, but dry and warmer conditions can be anticipated Friday into the weekend. Southeast Arizona will be in between systems Friday into the weekend which will translate to dry and warmer conditions.
851 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 High pressure continues to ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico producing pleasant weather. Morning observations and visible satellite imagery are showing clear skies across the area with temperatures in the low to mid 60's. Pleasant weather can be expected over the gulf coast waters through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure continues to ridge into the Gulf of Mexico.
556 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Light freezing rain appears to be increasing across southwest and south central North Dakota. Dickinson, Hettinger, and now Bismarck have reported freezing rain within the last hour. Early morning water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a double barrel upper low spinning over the Great Basin and another closed low moving into central Manitoba. Freezing drizzle remains a concern across southern North Dakota this morning. Dickinson reported light freezing rain for over an hour. Have not received any ground reports of freezing drizzle or ice accumulation across the rest of the advisory, but with the presence of the mid level dry slot and mist also being reported at Hettinger, keeping the rest of the advisory in tact seems prudent. High pressure begins to settle over the region tonight.
A cold front pushes southeastward through the Mid MS Valley late tonight and into the overnight hours. The cold front will continue to move through Central AL, producing widespread rain through the day on Friday.
1007 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 High pressure over the western Atlantic Basin centered north of Florida will continue to dominate our weather pattern this afternoon. High pressure influence continuing, with southeast winds 10-15 kts this afternoon.
With the warm front well north of the area and persistent swrly flow in place, the airmass in place today will be characterized by well above average temperatures and abundant moisture. With surface ridging to the southeast and an area of low pressure moving across the Southern Plains, srly winds at the sfc will be enhanced across the area with gusts between 20-30 mph at times. The cold front will progress across the state on Friday, limiting rain chances to mainly southern Arkansas. As surface ridging builds south toward the area, cooler air will settle in.
549 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A low pressure system will slowly move through the region bringing cooler and unsettled weather through the remainder of the week.
A surface warm front was bisecting the southern portion of the forecast area. While ~1000 J/Kg will support modest thunderstorms and small hail, the near surface cool inversion should help limit downward momentum in thunderstorm downdrafts, especially north of the warm front. With the warm front accelerating north in response to the approaching primary wave, an unstable atmosphere is probable to materialize by mid-afternoon across much of the CWA ahead of a swiftly-moving dryline. This warmth will be short-lived as a strong cold front moves through during the overnight hours, with temperatures crashing by sunrise Friday. In fact, the next three mornings (Fri, Sat, Sun) will likely have temperatures at or well below freezing in most areas.
Southwest direction will shift to northwest this evening with passage of polar cold front. Winds will stay up well into the evening as a polar cold front moves in from the northwest. Lows tonight about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with all but the southeast part of the forecast area freezing.
Yesterday's low pressure system moved east last night allowing the warm front to dive south ending precipitation. It pushes back northeast during the morning hours as a second low pressure system ejects out of the Plains States towards the Great Lakes and tracks northwest of our area. Cloud cover lingers after the afternoon rainfall, but warm moist air surges north with the entrance of the LLJ after 00z ahead of the cold front allowing SB CAPE to rise to near 500 J/kg around 6z Thursday night. Friday, the cold front moves through, so after temperatures rose or held constant for a time into the night Thursday night, they will be falling through the day, Friday.
Convection is in advance of a cold front that will be advancing across the state during the period. RA/TSRA will diminish from NW to SE ahead of an approaching cold front near the end of the period. With the warm front well north of the area and persistent swrly flow in place, the airmass in place today will be characterized by well above average temperatures and abundant moisture. With surface ridging to the southeast and an area of low pressure moving across the Southern Plains, srly winds at the sfc will be enhanced across the area with gusts between 20-30 mph at times. The cold front will progress across the state on Friday, limiting rain chances to mainly southern Arkansas. As surface ridging builds south toward the area, cooler air will settle in.
Warm and dry conditions will continue across the area on Friday as the cold front approaches the western portions of our area late Friday night.
Otherwise very cold air will move south into the area overnight as Canadian high pressure builds in. Winds will turn to the south as the high shifts east. Some sunshine expected, which should help improve any ice covered surface with the high March sun angle.
An upper low over the Great Basin will keep clouds and a sight chance of showers near the ID/NV border today.
- Windy and Colder Friday Cold advection behind the front on Friday will mix down some winds in the 30 to 40 mph range and temperatures will tumble into the 30s with wind chills below freezing by afternoon.
Starting from north to south between 23Z today and 03Z Friday, a cold front will shift winds from southwest to more northwesterly wind north-northwesterly with winds still sustained around 20-30 kts. Southwest direction will shift to northwest this evening with passage of polar cold front. Winds will stay up well into the evening as a polar cold front moves in from the northwest. Lows tonight about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with all but the southeast part of the forecast area freezing.
A cold front will head south late tonight and bring breezy northeasterly winds to the terminals Friday morning. We'll see lowering rain chances across the region with drier air cutting underneath the progressive trough and associated Pacific front. Strong mountain wave signature on models pinpoints a max wind across the Guadalupe's, prompting a continuation of the High Wind Warning through the morning and afternoon before tailing off after sunset. Winds will settle after sunset region-wide, but a cold front will motion south from the Panhandle and quickly traverse the area by Friday morning.
Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday with ridging over the region and a cold front moving through the southeastern states. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s inland and low 80s along the coast.
A low pressure system centered over Nevada will maintain cooler and unsettled weather through the remainder of the week. Precipitation in the wraparound band associated with the deepening upper low over central/eastern Colorado will persist across a good portion of eastern/northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the afternoon. A second upper low currently centered across central/western Nevada will gradually take on a more west-to-east orientation and weaken over the next 2-3 days. A number of weak vorticity maxima rotating through the upper low position will wonder in and out of Utah through the upcoming weekend.
224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Windy conditions are being observed across the northern half of the CWA today ahead of a cold front due to arrive overnight into Friday morning. Most of the rain has already pushed east so the frontal passage will be dry with high pressure behind the front bringing cooler temperatures, especially east of the Pecos River.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf through Friday and gradually weaken as a cold front moves into the southeastern states. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 60s and highs on Friday will continue above normal, in the low to mid 80s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Strong high pressure will drop over the area tonight, bringing clearing skies and diminishing winds. The high will remain firmly in place over the area on Friday, which will allow temperatures to only rise into the 20s. Temperatures will then fall back into the teens Friday before the high begins to slide off to the east late in the night.
Strong winds behind cold front tonight with gusts up to 40 mph.
Cold Front and Possible Rain. Another cold front will move across West Central Texas later tonight and Friday. This front will bring cooler air, along with the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms. As the cold air begins to move into West Central Texas on Friday, afternoon highs will be much cooler than today, especially over the Big Country.
Dry weather into the weekend with an upper level low moving by well west of the area tonight.
116 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Rain will increase in coverage again this afternoon, with additional showers and thunderstorms likely Friday with a crossing cold front. The weekend should yield dry, but cool conditions in high pressure. Significant warm, moist advection should maintain extensive cloud cover ahead of an encroaching upstream trough. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger.
Reports of freezing drizzle have been isolated and fog has become less pervasive. Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will still allow pockets of slick roads, but freezing drizzle does not appear to be a widespread concern any longer. The Winter Weather Advisory continues through Noon for Carter and Fallon counties for the potential of freezing drizzle. Given that there are some light returns on radar in the area, this could also be some light freezing drizzle. Expect lows to be in the lower teens to single digits overnight.
/issued 851 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ High pressure continues to ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico producing pleasant weather. Morning observations and visible satellite imagery are showing clear skies across the area with temperatures in the low to mid 60's. Pleasant weather can be expected over the gulf coast waters through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure continues to ridge into the Gulf of Mexico.
That area has seen less rainfall with upstream observations across Arkansas indicating temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Otherwise, the main story will be the big cold front that will pass through the region late tonight and early Friday morning.
The cold front will move through late tonight and into tomorrow, leading to much colder temperatures to close the work week and open the weekend.
CAMs still remain somewhat inconsistent regarding the onset timing of convection ahead of the approaching cold front. Convection is expected to weaken as it pushes east well ahead of the cold front. With the upper ridge retrograding from Florida into Mexico and then back again weather systems tracking westward out of the mean trough along the Pacific Coast are producing a steady stream of moisture and rain-making systems into our area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be becoming numerous with some severe this evening and perhaps overnight as a cold front moves into I-30 before daybreak. Temperatures will trend below average behind this cold front.
204 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Broad upper ridging extends from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico northeastward over Florida and into the western Atlantic.
335 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Atlantic high pressure will persist through Friday night.
A changeover to snow has started in some locations west of this line as a cold front begins to slide through from the northwest.
As strong surface cyclogenesis continues with the departing mid-level low and weak ridging builds behind the Pacific front, pressure gradients remain tight. However, on the heels of the windy weather and departure of the Pacific front, a continental cold front will race through the CWA. Winds will shift to the north and increase in speed as much cooler air filters in behind the front which should push through after midnight and before sunrise tomorrow.
As this is being written, there are some isolated clear skies peaking through over the lower elevations of southeastern Utah and extreme southwestern Colorado. Looking at radar returns and water vapor, the center of the low remaining west of the Rockies is somwhere over northern portions of our forecast area. On the southwest side of the low over the aformentioned clear skies, convection is initiating. Few changes we made to the snowfall forecast with just a few more inches expected favoring the high elevations mainly in the central and northern mountains through the day on Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain roughly 10 degrees cooler than normal through the short term primarily thanks to increased cloud cover.
A warm front currently sits to the south and warm air advection continues to help maintain mild temperatures this morning. Current temperatures range from the low 40s to low 50s across the Tri-State area. A broad upper trough is located over the Southwestern U. Rain chances will continue, eventually turning to snow as cold air filters into the region on the back side of the low. Consistent with the past few days, the highest snow amounts will occur in the northwestern part of the forecast region where cold air is expected to arrive first. a cut-off upper low offshore the Pacific coast and split flow aloft over the western CONUS -- will persist through the weekend. Cool temperatures will prevail on Friday -- in assoc/w Canadian high pressure extending southward through the Northern/Central Plains.
220 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 20z surface analysis had low over northwest KS with cold front northeast into MN and northwest into ID. Upper low spinning over northwest KS per water vapour. They will bring warmer air to the regional.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points remaining near 70.
A weak cold front will approach the terminals late in the TAF period on Friday, but latest model guidance continues to slow the approach of this boundary and have not included mention of a wind shift in the 18Z TAFs. Otherwise, current forecast for today remains on track with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s near the coast increasing into the low to mid 90s along the Rio Grande.
A cold front will begin moving eastward through the short term period. However, this front does NOT play a role in our weather here in South Florida as the upper level high remains in place across the Gulf. Although the the stout ridge and ample subsidence continues to reside over the area, cannot rule out a stray island induced nocturnal shower or two across the Atlantic waters and east coast. Temperatures will roughly remain the same, or generally above average with the H5 ridge remaining over our area.
Windy afternoon and into the overnight in store for the short term forecast as the gradient strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The aforementioned cold front will push through around the sunset time frame switching winds abruptly out of the northwest gusting up to 50mph initially with a strong advection of cold air associated with it. Winds will not diminish until the very early morning hours of Friday gusting up to 30-35mph before easing off to 15-20mph winds after sunrise due to the front pushing quickly to the east and southeast slackening the gradient across the CWA with high pressure building back in from the west. Not much of a warmup is in store for Friday to end the work week struggling to reach the 40s behind this cold front.
For tonight, a 1044mb high pressure currently over central Saskatchewan will shift south tonight and be located over northern North Dakota by 12z Friday. Friday, a mid level ridge will scoot across western and central North Dakota producing mostly sunny conditions.
A warm front was located along the Ohio Valley at mid morning. Approaching cold front will spark widespread SHRA/TSRA overnight impacting airports with MVFR conditions once again.
Showers and thunderstorms will encroach NW AL around midnight and will increase in coverage as it spreads eastward overnight ahead of a cold front. Southerly winds will remain breezy overnight, keeping WAA in place which will keep overnight lows mild in the low to mid 60s. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist overnight into Friday ahead of a cold front pushing through. Daytime highs will reach the lower 70s. The cold front itself finally make its way into NW AL Friday afternoon and continue to push SE into the evening hours.
Still seeing some light snow/light freezing precipitation across the southeast, but impacts appear to be minimal at this time. Warm air aloft per soundings and model blend grids will keep the chance for freezing rain/drizzle possible across the CWA until mid morning.
1143 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Currently - Deep layer ridging remains locked in place over the region. Some of this activity is skirting across the Lower Keys where it is possible some locations saw at least some sprinkles this morning. Visible satellite shows a patch of strato-cu moving through the Lower Keys, associated with the shower activity but this is moving west northwest away from the island with just some fair-weather cu behind it. Winds will remain up through the end of the week as a high pressure builds equatorward. Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
However, things will be quickly changing this evening as the upper low still remains west of Texas. Highs tomorrow will be not too much warmer than the lows as the cold front moves across the area. Will show the higher PoPs in this region.
Currently, the warm front extends from near Red Oak to Des Moines and eastward toward Grinnell. Strong northwest winds will persist into Friday with much colder temperatures as thermal trof drops into the state.
Otherwise, a strong cold front will bring a change in wind direction on Friday morning. Canadian front pushes down through the CWA on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend.
253 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 This afternoon, a warm front was located along the Ohio Valley and extended back to a low pressure center over the Central Plains. It will be quite mild with temps falling slowly through the lower 70s. This active wx will occur as the low pressure system from the plains moves northeast to the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front into Middle TN. Unfortunately, as the cold front becomes increasingly parallel to WSW upper level winds, the front will slow down. Behind this front, dry and cooler air will arrive as high pressure crosses the OH/TN valleys.