Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
18 UTC surface data shows the cold front has continued to move off to the east of the region. Earlier the cooler and drier air that was lagging the front was well back to the west, but some of the low-mid 60s dewpoints are arriving into Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia. Overnight, temperatures should drop into the lower 60s with a few spots possibly reaching the upper 50s across Southern Alabama.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE STATE AND THE UPPER LOW NOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
308 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LOW IN SOUTHEAST GA TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH THE CLOSED LOW REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST LATE DAY SUN. ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF SUN.
/issued 209 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/ An upper low off the Baja Peninsula will continue to retrograde tonight which will allow weak upper ridging to expand over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. But before the ua ridge becomes established, moist ambient conditions in the Davis Mountains may still yield a few thunderstorms through max heating this afternoon, aided somewhat by upslope flow and very modest instability.
328 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND LINGER OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
THE HEART OF THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL GET SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ADVANCES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WAVE IS MODELED BY THE SUITE OF NWP TO BREAK APART FROM THE PARENT GOA LOW AS RIDGING AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING NPAC WAVE.
147 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE PRECEDING MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW EAST SIDE AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A WEAK RIDGE LATER SUNDAY. WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE UPPER LOW THEN MIGRATES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNDER THE CONTINUING UPPER RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THE BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE REGION THE NEXT SATURDAY. THE LOW CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE.
1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 18Z TAFS TRANQUIL AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE SECOND SHORT WAVE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH IN A DRIER, COOLER, AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA TODAY THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.
243 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
332 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THEN NIGHT STABILIZATION AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE OVERALL REDUCTION IN MOISTURE WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES COMPARED TO SAT BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -8C) WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING AND A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTN. BUT CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IT WILL NOT BE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SO THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CLEANLY THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SHOULD PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN E/NE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.
127 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE W WILL KEEP NW FLOW TODAY. BUT FLOW FLATTENS OUT AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO JUST W OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT SHIFT E AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE STRONG SW-WSW FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
310 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL DRAG A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHTLY PACKED IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA AREA PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
327 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND IS ANTICIPATED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS/ECMWF FOR LOWS. LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AND HAVE KEPT FORECAST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD START TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES APPOSED TO THE GA/NC/SC ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS BEING REALIZED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN OF WASHINGTON, THE YAKIMA VALLEY, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS IN OREGON.
352 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Hot ridge builds into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on Sunday.
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Mostly clear and dry conditions expected to continue tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Cooler temperatures of late with northwesterly flow aloft will be countered by more southerly winds on the western side of the ridge axis. The wind shift should keep overnight lows warmer than last night. Above normal temperatures will close out the weekend, as high pressure slides east of Illinois and southwest flow brings a surge of warm air into the region.
1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS DEPICT STRONG POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. TRANSFER OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED. SELFRIDGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO THE START THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
358 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 COOL AND FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
EASTERN KY WILL BE MEET WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST OVERALL KEEPING DEWPOINTS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SE OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
Warm (above normal) temperatures have developed across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front expected to reach northwest Montana and north-central Idaho by this evening. Breezy winds have already started to increase this afternoon, and are expected to peak tonight and into Sunday as the cold front tracks from the northwest to the southeast. Valley locations could see gusts above 30 mph and the higher terrain potentially gusting over 40-50 mph. Behind this weather system, high pressure will return over the area resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week as high pressure builds. A cold front will sweep across central Idaho and western Montana this evening, bringing gusty winds and brief rain showers.
335 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) Expect hot and dry conditions on Sunday due to a low level thermal ridge and gusty southwest winds. The high temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Upper level ridge over the West Coast will create dry northwest flow across the southern plains.
322 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
225 PM MST SAT OCT 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS DOES MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY BUT THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MIXING NEAR BOUNDARY PASSAGE THEN POTENTIAL FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON.
NAM hints at some light precip skirting the far NE this afternoon as a trailing trough axis swings through the area.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
The potential for freezing fog looks less likely early morning with fairly dry air hanging around at the surface. /issued 236 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ The upper trough that was over the area yesterday has begun to move southeastward. Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s across a large portion of the area today. Since mostly clear skies, light winds, and freezing temperatures are expected tonight, freezing fog will be possible across portions of the CWA Thursday morning. Forecast soundings and the NAM12 surface humidity values are not indicating widespread fog so will not issue a Dense Freezing Fog Advisory at this point but will add in patchy freezing fog to the grids. Temperatures will warm up even further on Thursday as upper ridging starts to develop across the area.
454 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
315 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 Satellite and radar show mid clouds and a possibly few sprinkles across Indiana into much of southern Illinois and southern Missouri, associated with a weak cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest this afternoon, but with no significantly cooler air right behind the front and plenty of sunshine, we will still see milder temperatures than yesterday.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THUR MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LVL TROF AXIS TO THE EAST. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING THUR WILL BE FLATTENING OUT FRI WITH THE HELP OF A COUPLE OF STRONG DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
FLIGHT WEATHER SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO AN INSIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SRN WI FOR EARLY FRI MORNING.
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST LIKELY DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND HAVE INCREASED MIN TEMPS A DEG OR TWO IN SOME AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AN UPPER TROF/CDFNT WEST OF THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AFTER 00Z CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A LARGE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND HELP CLEAR OUT THE AREA FROM THE WET PATTERN OVERNIGHT. WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STRONGEST AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND.
That being said, despite most guidance suggesting temperatures maxing out in the 30s(north) to 40s (south), went ahead and bumped up the high today into the 40s across areas north of I-70 and into the 50s for areas along and south of I-70.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY KICKING EAST TODAY AND TRAVERSING THE STATE THIS EVENING.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD.
/ISSUED 245 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
247 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
1133 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016 SFC RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL BE ORIENTED SW-NE DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE BY EARLY THU MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S SO WE SHOULD SEE A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE PLATEAU. FREEZING LEVELS REACH THE 600 FT AGL LEVEL AROUND 09Z ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
Mostly clear skies under high pressure overnight other than the far northern sections of the state that will have some clouds moving in ahead of the front.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH SOME VALLEYS HITTING A LOW AROUND THE MID TEENS IN SOME AREAS. HAVE PUT IN SOME TENTH TO A FEW TENTHS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR EAST GETTING A HALF INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
1259 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
346 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 THE 07Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WISCONSIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE MILD WEATHER IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF 7C TO 12C/.
147 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
338 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 A SHARPENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S.
1221 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO INCRS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LGT SNOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. A BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. COLD UPR TROFG. MARGINAL LLVL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENTLY LOW INVERSION HTS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTG TO DIMINISH AS THE TROF EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRI AFTN.
326 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO INCRS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LGT SNOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. A BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. COLD UPR TROFG. MARGINAL LLVL LAPSE RATES AND TROF PROGRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR AREAS ALNG AND N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE TROF EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRI AFTN.
1207 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
A STRETCH OF EXCEPTIONALLY NICE WX CONTS TO MELT THE SNOW AND IT WILL CLIMAX FRI-SAT AS WE CONT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL ALOFT: AIRCRAFT/RAOB DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA WITH A TROF IN THE E. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE WRN RIDGE TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E. THIS AFTERNOON A SFC TROF WILL MATURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND DRIFT E INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT.
1001 PM PST WED JAN 27 2016 A wetter and warmer storm will track through the area tonight and Thursday and will bring rain and high mountain snow. as well as local freezing rain in the valleys over the North Cascades.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS WILL BE ADVANCING OVER AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROF.
EXPECT QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA AT THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A FAVORABLE WESTERLY MIXING WIND WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA.
329 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Region. High temps over the CWA should be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday with highs in the 50s/low 60s forecast.
UPDATE: Forecast on target with only minor adjustments to specific temp trends needed to account for the bubble of warmer temps underneath the area of mid cloud. Otherwise, look for a cold front to arrive late tonight and Thursday morning that will serve to put our warm-up in check somewhat, largely resulting in a persistence temp forecast being tough to beat for areas in northeast and central MO, while expect a day a few degrees warmer than Wednesday for the rest of the area.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE WITH TIME AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
/ISSUED 823 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF I-40. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
105 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HINT THAT THEY WILL BE THINNED OUT BUT THAT A SHALLOW LAYER OR TWO WILL REMAIN SO WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK THE LOW CLOUDS UP BEFORE HIGHER WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. THEN MORE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER COMES THE THOUGHT OF FLURRIES DEVELOPING AND MODELS HINT AT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW OF THEM. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE IN SOME QUESTION AND WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATER LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL RESULT IN THE EROSION OF ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG EARLY FRI. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH AND RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE WESTERN US.
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE AREA. LEE TROFFING WILL CREATE WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO COMBINE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
A weak surface trof will move through early Thursday. After that, high pressure moves across the region maintaining dry weather.
346 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE/TROUGH ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER AND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AMPLIFIES LATER TODAY AREA UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250MB JETMAX OVER FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST. AFTER 18Z AS UPPER TROUGH/JETMAX SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.