Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 500 mb trough was over the forecast area and there was some indication of weak diffluence at 300 and 200 mb; although, the high pressure ridge was extending from northern Mexico over Southeast Texas.
359 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 This evening through Tonight: A cold front sagging south across Lake Superior late this afternoon will become nearly stationary this evening across much of the U. Wednesday: The aforementioned cold front/stationary front is expected to drift slowly northward by mid afternoon as a weak warm front. The best chance for widespread precip will by Thu into early Fri as a low pressure system moves south of the area.
313 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 No major changes in the near-time expected as the 500mb height pattern keeps high pressure centered south of the Four Corners over the next couple of days.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow under high pressure. Quiet weather will continue the next couple days under high pressure. High pressure centered over the Middle MO River Valley will extend ewd from IA to the Mid Atlantic States for later today and tonight. Light winds will become southerly as high pressure shifts east of the area.
550 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 A cold front has moved through the region and CIGs have lifted or dissipated at all area airports. An area of MVFR clouds will wrap around the back side of the low pressure center this evening. The cold front has pushed through the majority of South Central Texas. What that means is that the upper level trof axis will very slowly push through South Central Texas. So it will take a while for the low clouds to scour out, probably not until Sunday late morning or early afternoon.
553 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 Light rain is moving out of southeast Arkansas with the cold front.
Welcome back to winter - the brief respite was nice! At 3 PM, a cold front was producing a broken 6-10K deck of clouds across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Further upstream, a much stronger short wave trough was located over the Dakotas.
702 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Rain through tonight with a crossing cold front. Rain chances continue Sunday south of Interstate 68, with dry weather expected under high pressure elsewhere. The front is progged to slide E of the area by Sunday morning, though a developing wave along the front in response to an approaching, deepening upper trough should slow its progression.
630 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 A cold front will move east across the area late today and early tonight. High pressure will build briefly across the Ohio Valley on Sunday ahead of a second cold front that will drop across the region Sunday night.
602 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 A cold front will spread rain across the area tonight through Sunday night.
505 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 An upper level trough is currently moving through the midwest, as ridging increases over the west coast. This disturbance and associated cold front could bring a quick shot of light snow to the area tomorrow, before exiting southeast Nebraska Sunday evening. Clouds will increase and winds will begin to swing around to the north tonight with the passage of this front, ushering cooler air into the region for Sunday. Highs will range from the mid 30s in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, to the low 20s over the previously snow-covered parts of northeast Nebraska.
1000 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 An upper level trough was located over the SD/MN border and was moving to the southeast at 35 knots. The cold front continues to sag slowly southward late this afternoon, and as of now was located somewhere along a line from Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Park Rapids. High pressure builds in on Sunday with lighter winds and more sun, but cooler as well.
Surface analysis indicates surface ridging building into the region this evening in the wake of last night's cold front. With ridging expected overhead tonight and clear skies, conditions will be optimal for radiational cooling. A quick return to south to southwest winds by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next, stronger front will bring temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than those today.
02 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Ohio River Valley down into the Western Gulf of Mexico. Well ahead of this cold front, convection is continuing just south of Mobile over the Gulf of Mexico.
905 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Rain through tonight with a crossing cold front. Rain chances continue Sunday south of Interstate 68, with dry weather expected under high pressure elsewhere. Rain will continue eastward through the rest of the night upper strong upper divergence ahead of the cold front. The front is progged to slide E of the area by Sunday morning, though a developing wave along the front in response to an approaching, deepening upper trough should slow its progression.
701 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 Short wave trough bringing good coverage of light snow to the eastern part of the cwa late this afternoon and evening.
617 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 A cold front will spread rain across the area tonight through Sunday night.
A mix of light rain/showers continues this evening across the coastal plains ahead of an approaching cold front, impacting mainly ALI-CRP. A surface pre-frontal trough located along the coast this afternoon has provided moderate low level moisture convergence and is resulting in sct/num showers and a few thunderstorms. A weak cold front and associated upper trough are slowly drifting southeast with the frontal bdry currently approaching the northern CWA. Mid levels will become drier by late evening, however the low level moisture will linger, thus patchy fog will be a possibility. Winds and seas across the offshore waters may briefly reach advisory levels Sunday morning as high pressure builds across the region. The cooler airmass will be more noticeable Sun night as skies clear and winds become light, allowing for maximum radiational cooling.
Otherwise, no significant forecast updates are needed this evening as mostly clear skies get replaced by high clouds overnight as a cold front approaches from the north. High pressure is building into the region this afternoon, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures still quite mild with the colder air hanging back to the NW. Quiet weather as cooler air moving into the region, and the northwesterly winds will drop tomorrows high temps into the 40s. The weak wave is running over a high pressure ridge at the surface. The mid level trough of cold air drops into the Midwest Sunday night.
525 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 High pressure is building into the region this afternoon, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures still quite mild with the colder air hanging back to the NW. Quiet weather as cooler air moving into the region, and the northwesterly winds will drop tomorrows high temps into the 40s. The weak wave is running over a high pressure ridge at the surface. The mid level trough of cold air drops into the Midwest Sunday night.
731 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Rain will continue to taper off this evening as a cold front moves through the area and weak high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Additionally, a slight chance of freezing rain remains in the forecast for north central Idaho, as well as west central and northwest Montana through Sunday morning. The confidence in freezing rain remains fairly low, however still plausible given a surge of warm air aloft.
1035 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Rain will continue to end as a cold front moves through the area and weak high pressure builds in from the west.
1006 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 A cold front will spread rain across the area tonight through Sunday night.
There could be a few snow showers over the higher elevations of Lake county, and maybe over northwest portions of Chaffee county, but if they do occur, they shouldn't amount to much. Therefore, the high temp forecast for Sun is a challenge across the southeast plains, and MOS guidance highs are not in agreement. The GFS guidance is about 8-10 deg warmer than the NAM guidance, and the Euro is similar to the NAM. For now will generally go cooler than the GFS, but will lean more toward the cooler NAM guidance.
They should dissipate by 04Z as the upper trough moves across the region. /issued 241 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018/ (Tonight and Sunday) Skies continue to clear this afternoon in the wake of this morning's cold front. The clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s across the area with a few spots possibly dropping into the upper 20s.
A warm front will push across the region tonight and some drier conditions will move into central oregon toward morning.
940 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Evng RAOBs show the dry mid lyrs modifying ahead of a cold front advancing into the MS Valley. Deep lyr anticyclone over the SW Atlc will maintain a brisk 20-25KT S/SE flow thru the H100-H70 lyr, as measured by the lcl wind profilers. Furthermore, H85-H70 winds will shift to S/SW overnight as the frontal trof pushes into the Deep South and pushes the Atlc anticyclone seaward, limiting the potential for even low-topped Gulf Stream shras to advect onshore. Deep/strong high pres extending from Bermuda into the Deep South will retreat seaward overnight as a new frontal trof pushes acrs the Lwr MS Valley.
ridge gets reestablished. Temperatures will remain challenging as inversions start to break in some of the higher valleys with warming aloft, while others see the inversions actually strengthen in this pattern.
526 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will move southward across the terminal sites on Sunday, with winds becoming north in its wake.
The cold front continues to sag slowly southward late this afternoon, and as of now was located somewhere along a line from Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Park Rapids. High pressure builds in on Sunday with lighter winds and more sun, but cooler as well.
Temperatures were holding in the lower 70s with dewpoints continuing a gradual climb through the mid 60s. While winds have recently decreased near or below 15 knots over the cooler Florida Bay and adjacent Gulf inshore of 5 fathoms, boaters should continu20e to use caution given some periods of gusts 20 knots or greater are expected.
North winds will develop overnight as a weak cold front moves through the region. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the TAF cycle as high pressure builds into the area.
439 PM MST Sat Jan 27 2018 Latest upper analysis showing a trough dropping southward across the eastern Dakota, producing some scattered flurries over the eastern part of the forecast area this afternoon. Cool high pressure is moving in at the surface on breezy to windy northwest winds. The cooler air moving into the region will result in lows in the single digits and teens above zero tonight with highs in the 20s to lower 30s on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the mid/upper level trough is forecast to deepen Sunday into Sunday night in response to an amplifying West Coast ridge, with mid-level vortices diving southeast in the northwest flow aloft.
Some downsloping across the mountains is keeping it slightly drier in those areas this evening, but rain should fill in across the entire area overnight as a cold front to the west continues to progress eastward. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 58 37 55 / 90 90 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 54 36 51 / 90 90 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 54 35 51 / 90 90 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 52 34 47 / 90 90 40 20.
A broad upper trough was noted over the central and northern plains per the 20Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, a weak high was centered over the TX panhandle while a cold front was seen moving south through the Dakotas. Winds should remain light as the weak ridging remains over the central plains. Forecast soundings suggest precip initially may be rain before diurnal cooling and low level cold air advection cool the column below freezing.
As we've seen late this afternoon, we'll probably see temporary breaks in the low clouds early in the period, but expecting those to fill in quickly this evening and not even confident enough for a TEMPO at this time. /ISSUED 246 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018/ The cold front has made it past College Station and is near Brenham. The upper level trough axis moves east of the area on Sun afternoon and southeast Texas will be under the influence of NW flow aloft through mid-week.
Moderate southeast to south winds prevailed in the lower levels, while west to southwest winds were noted throughout the remainder of the sounding. /issued 416 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018/ Weak surface 1018 mb low pressure system that brought the heavy rains to the area is currently slowly filling in near the Pearl River The upper impulse that was enhancing the rainfall has aligned with lower level feature to make the system more progressive in the past couple of hours.
416 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 Weak surface 1018 mb low pressure system that brought the heavy rains to the area is currently slowly filling in near the Pearl River The upper impulse that was enhancing the rainfall has aligned with lower level feature to make the system more progressive in the past couple of hours.
649 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 It will remain mainly clear overnight in the wake of a cold front that will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures.
Many locations also have very steep surface inversions (El Reno Mesonet is 13 F warmer at 30 ft than 5 ft).
430 PM MST Sat Jan 27 2018 Latest satellite imagery shows northwest upper level flow over the west half of the CONUS with an upper level short wave trough moving southeast over the Northern Plains. Along and behind the trough cloud cover was spreading southeast across the CONUS. Lows will be slightly warmer than last night due to the cloud cover. Sunday morning the cold front will move through in the morning.
Dry with a warming trend into midweek, then cooler later in the week with little chance of any precipitation. A weak back door cold front Sunday night will bring little impact to the east.
612 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Rain through tonight with a crossing cold front. Rain chances continue Sunday south of Interstate 68, with dry weather expected under high pressure elsewhere. The front is progged to slide E of the area by Sunday morning, though a developing wave along the front in response to an approaching, deepening upper trough should slow its progression.
/Issued 229 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018/ With strong high pressure remaining over the Carolinas, isentropic processes in full effect as light rain continues to increase in coverage across most of North GA.
A weak cold front will approach and then move southeastward across the area this evening, and push east of the Cumberland Plateau Region by 28/12Z(6 AM CST Sun). A slow moving band of rain associated with a cold front will cross the area tonight into Sunday.
A slow moving band of rain associated with a cold front will cross the area tonight into Sunday.
/issued 1032 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ Patchy drizzle continues across much of the area this morning, some of it freezing aross the portions of our region that remain below 32 degrees. Meanwhile, temps continue to hold near-steady, meaning that a large portion of our area remains below the freezing mark. Morning sounding at KSHV seems to be far too warm to see any sleet, but the freezing layer appears to be deeper w of KSHV. /issued 611 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ The cold front has just about exited the region as of 12Z, extending from just E of MLU to AEX.
406 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong cold front affecting the eastern CONUS, draped southward from the Ohio valley to the Gulf. Subsidence, AKA downward motion, from high pressure aloft has allowed for maximum temperatures to rise well into this mid 80s this afternoon across the interior. This synoptic pattern will lead to warm weather, maximum temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than seasonal norms, east or southeast flow, and dry conditions. High pressure, to the E, is forecast to maintain the strong SE wind across the region today.
1151 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Isolated light showers linger across the region with only a few sprinkles expected towards the later afternoon hours behind a the cold front that is moving into eastern Louisiana at this time. A shallow cold front is located as of 11/11Z from east of KAEX to KLCH. /issued 418 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ As of 4 AM, regional surface observations indicate a cold front extending from NE Louisiana southwestward through Alexandria and into the Gulf of Mexico around Sabine Pass. The cold front will continue to progress across the CWA through the morning hours. Moisture overrunning the surface cold front will result in a slight chance of showers through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. High pressure will build into the region resulting in cooler and drier conditions tomorrow.
A low pressure system is still anticipated to swing south of the region overnight.
Skies have cleared this afternoon in the wake of the morning snow, and west winds will increase a bit this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds into the area. Overnight lows should generally be between 0 and -5, with slightly warmer readings between 0 and +5 near the lakeshore.
High pressure will build into the area for the early parts of the week. A low pressure system may affect the area towards the middle and later parts of the week. Radar and surface observations indicate lingering freezing drizzle has exited the forecast area. Highly sheared mid level trough over the Midwest will continue to drift off to the east tonight. Skies expected to gradually clear off later tonight with the passage of the upper trough. Most of this period looks to be rather quiet, as a large high pressure area drifts through the Great Lakes.
Cold front has made it through Nashville but not quite to Smyrna at this point according to the latest obs. The front will accelerate in forward speed as an upper trough approaches from the southern and central plains. It looks like the cold front will clear the CWA by 21-22z.
322 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 A cold front pushes east through the Mid Atlantic region tonight.
Southeast mid level ridge will eventually lead to more energy digging south along the west coast of the conus. This will probably lead to a positive tilt long wave trof across the western conus into the Northern Plains.
Tonight the cold air will flow in behind the cold front and expect wind chills to fall into the wind chill advisory category over portions of the CWA.
As the low lifts northeast, the surface cold front will drag through, bringing additional rain showers this evening.
A shallow cold front will drop south across the Sandhills and back to the west overnight. Temperatures will be cooler Monday due to post frontal cold air advection. High will range from the low teens along the SDAK border, to the mid 20s across our far south. Monday evening, a chance for light snow will continue, as weak upslope wind in the lower levels persists. The highest POPs will be near 40 percent near the South Dakota border, with a slight chance as far south as I80.
231 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region tonight, then dry and seasonal conditions will begin the work-week. As the low lifts northeast, the surface cold front will drag through, bringing additional rain showers this evening.
This would support the highs in the lower 40s as h850mb temperatures continue to rise toward 0C today. Elsewhere the forecast is a close match to the ECM guidance which is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the NAM and GFS temperature guidance.
246 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Departing low pressure over southern Quebec will drive a trailing cold front through the region overnight.
Temps range from the lower teens over northwest SD to the upper 20s over parts of northeast WY and southwest SD.
1221 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Aviation Low pressure will bring snow to Lower Michigan today with about 2 to 5 inches of snow by the time the storm ends late this afternoon. Since there is a "dry slot" over our southern CWA at this time, and temperatures are well below freezing some patchy freezing drizzle is possible there but I do not feel there will be enough of that to put in our actual forecast. High pressure at the sfc will be moving east of the area, allowing for a srly flow to bring in warmer temperatures. The uncertainty develops as we will have a nrn stream cold front dropping south toward the area, and a srn stream low coming out of the Plains.
The low CIGs with -DZ/-RA aiding in some of the lower VSBYs as well this early afternoon. Moisture trapped between 2000-3500 ft along with isentropic lift behind the morning cold front are expected to keep at least MVFR conditions through the end of the TAF period, with possibly VFR toward the end to of the TAF period at LRD.
High pressure aloft across the Great Basin today will give way to the next series of weather disturbances which will impact much of Utah early in the week.
203 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central U. on Mon as a trough digs into the western U.
1000 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018 Forecast focus is on temperatures the next few days as a warmer and dryer airmass moves into the region as a low pressure system dives south along the west coast and the northwest flow aloft transitions to southwest flow aloft. The upper trough that brought snow to the region yesterday and overnight will continue to move east as a low center begins to drop south along the coast of Washington and Oregon.
354 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper level trough across southern Canada with a short wave trough over the MAN/Ontario border. Westerly sfc flow will contribute to substantial warming on Wed; potential exists to drive temps toward 40 degrees, as it stands now most areas are progged to at least climb above freezing. This will be attributable to a quasi backdoor cold frontal structure descending from Canada.
A reinforcing arctic cold front is expected to move south during the overnight tonight and will affect Monday with colder temperatures. Monday will be a cool-down as arctic air is once again reinforced behind the cold front along with increased stratus and snow cover.
248 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Tonight and Monday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a cold front near a Columbus to Meridian line. Local radars had a narrow band of showers along the front with a few thunderstorms noted ahead of the cold front over our southeast zones. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight than last night but remain above normal with the exception of the delta region. Morning lows across the delta region will be in the lower 30s.
While it will be mainly sunny Monday, expect highs to only climb into the lower to mid 20s after a cold start to the day. KJB 238 PM CST Dry conditions expected at the start of the period, as high pressure is situated across the region.
This northern stream wave will attempt to phase with the system working into the ohio valley but more importantly will drag a cold front across the state late today into this evening. A few flurries could be associated with or near the cold front later today and evening. Cold high pressure with below than normal temperatures will linger into Monday.
1234 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Moisture will increase across the region through tonight as a cold front begins to slowly eastward into the area.
Large Canadian high pressure digging into the northern Plains this afternoon will continue to slide southeast, becoming the dominate player for our weather for the next several days. Not much going on to start the work week as that upstream high pressure builds overhead. Some good news as the building high pressure keeps winds relatively light, with wind chill readings just a bit colder than actual temperatures by the afternoon.
After that, subsidence behind the departing short wave trough will allow skies to clear out with mostly sunny skies expected for the entire area by the lunch hour and through the afternoon. A large area of high pressure will be over the Upper Midwest tonight and Monday before moving east of the region Monday night.