Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE TROUGH STRUCTURE WAS NOT VERY SHARP SO THERE WAS NOT A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT AREA AS THE JET WENT BY. THEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE COOLER. BUT I DID LOWER THE LOWS TONIGHT A LITTLE EXPECTING MORE COOLING THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STARTS TO EASE INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. TRAILING SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A BROADENING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION.
523 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015 PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS THE RAIN RISK AS THE LATEST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. O7Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS FROM ND ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN SO SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY REMAINS POSSIBLE DESPITE ALL THE CLOUDS. SYSTEM MOVES OUT TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION. FIRST SIGNIFICANT CLOSED CIRCULATION SPINNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CUTTING UNDER IT AND DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
A BAGGY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH NORTHEAST FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE DELMARVA. TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A STRONG TRANSPACIFIC JET IS ADDING ENERGY TO A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. FOR THE NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN. WILL EXTEND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 40 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SOUTH. WHILE THE ECMWF MORE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE CO BORDER AND CLOSES OVER THE UPPER LOW OVER NE NEW MEXICO SAT EVENING.
At the surface, a TROF will edge thru early this afternoon, resulting in winds going from SSW to a very favorable for warming WSW direction for much of the afternoon.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AND DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY LIMITED TO DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING (MIXING OUT BY 12-14Z) AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. -VINCENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THIS PERIOD AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY/TONIGHT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRI/FRI NIGHT AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES. LOWS FRI NIGHT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN ASSOC/W AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO SPIN AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. JET STREAM SETTLES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER THE TROF FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR HOLDS OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
A STRONG TRANSPACIFIC JET IS ADDING ENERGY TO A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
BUT A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON RALLY SHOULD STILL DELIVER MILD HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z, WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
409 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern is similar to yesterday, with a deep cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska and a broad, flat ridge anchored over the eastern Pacific between 20-30N latitude. The primary surface cyclone associated with this wave will move east across northern Plains today.
DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY WHILE A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST. MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BUT LESS FAVORABLE MIXING WINDS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BASIN BY LATE FRIDAY WITH LEE SIDE SFC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN IOWA TOWARD THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. HEAVY PCPN AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW AND SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AND DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THIS PERIOD AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY/TONIGHT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRI/FRI NIGHT AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES. LOWS FRI NIGHT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN ASSOC/W AIRMASS MODIFICATION.
These occur as a powerful jet digs a trof and spawns lee side cyclogenesis. with an attendant warm front developing and arcing from the Plains toward the Mississippi river valley. Heading into the weekend, as the Trof carves sharply, the teleconnected flow has backed and is deep swly, providing longitudinal columnar warming/moistening.
THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURGE WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR LAGS WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING IN TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 51 66 54 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 49 66 52 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 49 65 52 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 44 65 45 / 0 0 10 10 NC.
Otherwise, it should be another warm day with highs in the low-mid 70s in most parts of the area.
Models are generally not as warm today especially across southcentral Kansas is the consensus of MOS, and may be a result of with just how far the trough/cold front advances eastward today and the resulting wind trajectories. Most of the area is likely to reach around 60 degrees or slightly warmer, with more uncertainty regarding the possibility of warmer temperatures across the red hills region. Even warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday as moderate downslope winds return.
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM COMPARED TO THE WARMER GFS. AM FAVORING SOMEWHAT COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH.
749 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE MOST OF THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BE ADVECTED IN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
BUT SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. ASSOCIATED COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SNAKED ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SW SASK WILL ALSO PROPAGATE ESE QUICKLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. MILD/DRIER AIR ON SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE WEST AND BY SUNRISE MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VALLEY. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PCPN WILL OCCUR WITH WRAP AROUND AS UPPER LOW PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG INL BORDER AREA ON N SIDE OF UPPER LOW HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES KEEPS MOST OF IT NORTH OF THE BORDER. COLUMN COOLER HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
559 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 DECREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH OPEN TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE RESIDES IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
850mb temperatures warm into the lower/mid teens today and mid/upper teens by Friday. Strong Pacific jet energy beneath the deep upper low near 50N/130W will eventually buckle the flow.
630 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. AND HIGH PRESSURE (~1018MB) CENTERED FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO GA. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED SOME SCT -SHRA ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +1 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGING IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND ANY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO GA WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY BLO 6K FT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED MARINE SHOWERS ASCD WITH LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MARINE AREA DUE TO ABSENCE OF STEERING LEVEL WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BASED SHOWERS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HOSTILE DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE.
930 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RIDGE UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
941 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SNAKED ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SW SASK WILL ALSO PROPAGATE ESE QUICKLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. MILD/DRIER AIR ON SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE WEST AND BY SUNRISE MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VALLEY. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PCPN WILL OCCUR WITH WRAP AROUND AS UPPER LOW PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG INL BORDER AREA ON N SIDE OF UPPER LOW HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES KEEPS MOST OF IT NORTH OF THE BORDER. COLUMN COOLER HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
1015 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
NEAR A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MIX N INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY AFTERNOON.
(Today through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 0252 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015 The story through the short term will be the much warmer than average temperatures through late week. A warm front is expected to push northward during the day on Friday, this may be just enough for a light shower/sprinkles across the eastern Ozarks.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR INVADING THE WHOLE AREA. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AS THE COLD TROUGH SITS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I29 THIS EVENING. WITH PARTIAL SUN AND LIMITED MIXING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOW COVER TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND ALONG HIGHWAY 14. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
233 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER. BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING. THIS SHOULD SEND HIGHS EVEN HIGHER INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT. IT WILL QUITE A BIT COOLER ON WED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THANKSGIVING DAY.
STILL SEE WARM POCKETS OVER THE FOOTHILLS, WHICH SHOULD EXTEND OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER BASIN. THUS STILL EXPECT FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 26 AND 31 DEGREES. AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ARE BECOMING LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS TREND OF DECREASING THICK FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 1100 PM. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH GLACIER COUNTY AND SHOULD REACH CENTRAL MT BY MID-MORNING AND SW MT THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT A RIDGE WILL REMAIN RESILIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AGAIN REVOLVING AROUND INCREASING MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE WITH SUPPORT COMING VIA DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING THE WRN CONUS.
ZONAL MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
1007 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015 CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL IN THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY. SO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXCEPT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN SNOWPACKED AREAS. CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
334 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WE START WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES DOWN THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHENS.
AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM WA INTO MT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF THE WA COAST DROPS INTO NORTHWEST CA. UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHWEST CA INTO NORTHERN UT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCELERATES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO MN. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT INCREASES TO 1040MB AS IT MOVES INTO MT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN RESPONSE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON LEFT EXIT REGION OF 110KT JET.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL AND SHIFTING GRADUALLY EASTWARD.
THESE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY BEFORE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. STILL MAY SEE TRAVEL IMPACTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE WARMER READINGS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE SNOW. AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OVER THE LAKE INLAND A FEW MILES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
359 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
1235 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THANKSGIVING. BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE LOW WORKS ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHORE LATE TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY DIGS TO NW UTAH BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH/LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD/ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AND WEDNESDAY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING OVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
High clouds will work across the region today, otherwise expect another mild day with highs once again in the low 60s (give or take a few degrees).
334 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN TODAY.
1100 PM PST MON NOV 23 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
230 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL HOLD OVER THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AND SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER 30S ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPLICATED WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH STIRRING IN THE AIR THERE WILL BE WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST WIND.
1243 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AND SHOULD BE QUIET ON TUE WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. STARTING OUT 00Z WEDNESDAY UNDER A BROAD RIDGE. WITH AN EXITING 500MB TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING EAST OVER NEVADA WEDS. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRIVE A COLD SURGE OF AIR SOUTH INTO MONTANA BY LATE TUESDAY. OVER THE PLAINS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MORE OF A FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXTURE AS THE MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER SHALLOW AND LIFT BEING MAINLY UPSLOPE INDUCED. 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK AS A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
313 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE.
331 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WELL TO OUR WEST WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE.
IT'S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD DIP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST LOWS THERE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE MODELS THEN SHOW INCREASING LL RH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. DONT BELIEVE THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG WITH ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO REMAIN ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT AND INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 704 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015/ TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24HOURS AGO. BUT DEW POINTS ARE CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES WARMER. BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
Low level flow from the east will return moister, warmer over the area as well. Today will be dry, but more cloudy, slightly more humid, and warmer. Highs will be in the low-mid 60s across most of the area, warming to the upper 60s-around 70 in the eastern Big Bend.
1240 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER E NC TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.
1218 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
324 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH TODAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NW FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. LATEST OBS SHOW MOST TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND.
1237 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.