Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 356 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ (Today and Tonight) High pressure to our west, and the remnants of Irma to our east will put us under northerly flow aloft today. However, these north winds will not result in any cooling, and if anything with slightly warmer temperatures at 850mb today, we will likely see warmer temperatures by a few degrees across the area today. Lows are also expected to warm some, dropping down into the lower 60s mainly.
Latest models in decent agreement of the persistent upper ridge across the Rockies breaking down through the middle of the week, with increasing southwest flow aloft projected across the region through the weekend, as a deep upper trough moving across the Pac Northwest Coast slowly lifts out across the Great Basin and Rockies. There remains enough residual moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms across the higher terrain on Wednesday, with some storms moving off the mountains and out across the I-25 Corridor and the southeast Plains through the late afternoon and evening hours.
A low pressure system off the central California coast will bring a threat of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to much of the district through Wednesday.
One nice benefit from the low level northeasterly flow wrapping into northeast Kansas is the steady southeast transport of dewpoints in the 50s for the short term, with high clouds also taking high temperatures down just a few degrees. Highs in the east today are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s, while far western counties rise to middle 80s in better sunshine and under warmer temperatures aloft. Forcing to lift this system out stems from a poignant upper trough deepening over the Pac NW.
231 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 219 PM CDT Deterministic NAM/GFS/ECM are in reasonable agreement regarding the track of the stacked low pressure system associated with the remnants of Irma through late Wednesday. All three show a closed upper low lifting into the Ohio Valley with the surface center opening into a weak trough over southern Illinois. Considerable cloudiness across the southeast half of the forecast area will flatten the diurnal temperature curve tonight and tomorrow, keeping that area warmer overnight and cooler tomorrow than areas to the northwest.
331 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Post tropical storm Irma was tracking into southwest Tennessee late this afternoon with high pressure over the Delmarva peninsula. The low will move north tonight as the high tracks over the western Atlantic.
Lenning 254 AM CDT Generally translucent cirrus shield on the northwest flank of former tropical cyclone Irma will filter sunshine today, but temps should still rebound nicely, climbing well into the 70s. Once again today, winds off the lake will temps a bit cooler lakeside.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected again today, mainly along the higher terrain.
1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Continued warm and dry conditions will persist for the next few days as the region remains under an upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners region into the Northern Plains. This ridge will prevent remnants of Irma from spreading westward into the forecast area but a few high clouds may rotate into our far southeastern counties this morning. Under the upper-level ridge, continued southerly low level flow will keep temperatures above seasonal normals with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with a few locations hitting the lower 90s over the next few days. A strong cold front is forecast to drop into the region this weekend ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
230 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Summer-ish feel to the air for the rest of the work week as high pressure slides to the east and warm, southerly winds usher in warmer air.
A low pressure system off the coast of California is beginning to move eastward.
133 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the CA coast, a ridge over the Rockies, Irma over the sern U. Pattern changes little except to have a trough in sw Canada 12z Wed.
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A ridge of high pressure elongated over the lower Great Lakes till weaken and drift east tonight.
401 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Upper ridge now centered over wrn Colorado/ern Utah has turned the flow aloft nwly today. The few t-storms that managed to form this afternoon have remained confined to the higher peaks and ridges. As they drift southeast off the high terrain they quickly glaciate in the drier air and dissipate over the nearby plains. models show the upper ridge shifting east over all of Colorado, resulting slight warming and further drying aloft. Therefore storm chances look even lower tomorrow, and mainly confined to the high country during the mid to late afternoon and early evening hours. Highs tomorrow should again be well above average, the same if not slightly warmer than max temps today.
A deep-layer ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the east over the course of the TAF period, and with light steering flow a seabreeze is expected along each coast. Maximum temperatures this afternoon may reach the low 90s, typical for this time of year.
216 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure and dry weather will remain in place across the area this afternoon with just a few high, thin cirrus. High pressure will remain over the northeast through this evening, with just some high, thin cirrus clouds over the area on the periphery of Irma's influence.
253 PM MST Tue Sep 12 2017 Storm chances will be slight and confined to the higher terrain of Arizona today and Wednesday.
Issued by National Weather Service LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 208 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A closed low off the coast will move through central California on Wednesday.
317 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Remnants of Irma were located over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Main effect for eastern Kansas has been high cirrus clouds and north to northeasterly winds which have kept temperatures cooler across the area. An upper level low will move off the eastern Pacific and into southern California tonight while the upper level ridge builds back into the Plains. Forecast soundings show dry air in the lower boundary layer so left out patchy fog. By Wednesday night, the remnants of Irma will be situated near the Ohio River Valley with a broad SW to NE oriented mid-level ridge stretching across the central U. Both the ridge and Irma remnants will shift further east through the end of the week as a strong mid- level trough develops and dives southward toward the Four Corners region.
443 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure and dry weather will remain in place across the area tonight with a gradual increase in thin high clouds. High pressure will remain over the northeast through this evening, with just some high, thin cirrus clouds over the area on the periphery of Irma's influence, mainly across the western Southern Tier.
224 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure over New York will move offshore today.
1139 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A weak upper level low is seen early this morning on GOES 16 WV imagery over central Wyoming. The persistent large scale upper ridge in place over the Rockies will begin to flatten by Wednesday as a robust upper trough impinges on the Pacific NW. Heights aloft will fall and strengthening WSW flow will promote the development of lee troughing over eastern WY and western NE Wednesday afternoon.
403 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The low pressure formerly known as Irma is centered west of KMSL as of 20Z. The bulk of the precip stretches out well to the south, west, and northwest of the low center. Irma's low pressure center will drive NW and nearly dissipate by daybreak, but the parent upper circulation is gradually lifting north across the Tennessee Valley. But there will likely be enough light rain and/or measurable drizzle to justify high PoPs, particularly across NW AL and S TN, as the upper low lifts northward. Irma's effects will continue well into Wednesday as the upper low continues drifting into the Ohio Valley.
312 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High-level cirroform cloudiness should slowly diminish from west to east tonight, with low-level ridge axis keeping fairly light and variable winds in place. Lee trough development will occur on Wednesday leading to southerly flow and temperatures warming to above normal across the forecast area.
Dry North winds continue from the low to upper levels with the region being on the west side of what is left of Irma. Additionally, another closed low pressure system off the coast of California is resulting in ample ridging over the four corners and Rockies. As the Irma low continues to push northeast, the ridge axis should broaden, briefly draping the region under northwest flow aloft.
357 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High clouds and northerly winds associated with the remnant circulation of Hurricane Irma have kept temperatures cooler across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma this afternoon.
145 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the North Country with dry and seasonably warm conditions through the week.
349 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Afternoon convection has developed as expected today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms being confined to the higher terrain, though a few storms may drift off into the lower valleys. For Wednesday, a closed low will slowly meander across southern California, flattening the weak upper level ridge over our forecast area.
A cold front passes through Wednesday and brings gusty winds and cooler temperatures for the rest of the work week.
1132 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure aloft and stretched area of weak deformation remain over the region for one more day before a pattern change. Satellite imagery indicates the best energy has shifted east of the Continental Divide over the last 24 hours, so that means showers and thunderstorms may be a bit more isolated over the high terrain today. A closed low remains off of the coast of California before it begins forward motion eastward on Wednesday. A longwave trough dropping south from Canada is anticipated to drive this closed low eastward toward the Central Rockies mid to late week. Southwesterly winds will strengthen late Wednesday as the trough approaches from the west.
Forecast area is located on the east side of the upper ridge. Expect another mild night across the region with lows generally in the lower 60s. Wednesday looks like a pleasant day across the region, with upper level ridging in place. Models continue to show a potent trough digging into the west coast region on Wednesday.
628 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A ridge of high pressure elongated over the lower Great Lakes will weaken and slide east tonight.
144 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 After a cool start to the day with valley fog, high pressure will keep things dry and mostly sunny today with temperatures surging into the mid 70s to lower 80s for highs.
The region will be between high pressure to the Southeast and the remnants of Irma to the Northwest this period.
651 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
Temperatures are mostly in the lower 50s with light northeast winds. Light northeast winds to continue with lows mostly in the lower 50s with some mid 50s in the southeast with thicker clouds.
A series of storm systems will bring cooler and wetter conditions to Utah and southwest Wyoming for the second half of the work week, with drier conditions returning for the weekend.
Will continue ongoing Lake Wind Advisory this morning for some 15-20 mph winds, but the pressure gradients should weaken this afternoon as the depression continue to fill and high pressure weakens to our north.
The low pressure system formerly know as Irma will shift back towards the northeast on Wednesday and move up the Ohio River Valley.
forecast area remains under influence of upper ridging with center of upper high shifting southwest into Arizona. upper pattern starts to change a bit as Irma remnants move slowly northeast and California upper low moves ashore and slowly into southern Nevada. MET/MAV mos, 2m temperatures and bias corrected grids support readings in the low to mid 90s. As a result and per coordination with surrounding offices have nudged high temperatures up into the low to upper 90s which is a compromise between the guidance and a better place to start for temperatures.
344 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Clouds associated with the remnants of Irma have spread westward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, keeping temperatures cooler. In the wake of Irma, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Southern Plains starting Wednesday, and persisting into the weekend.
This low pressure system will move west northwest during the day today. Later this afternoon high resolution models are shifting the higher pops to the west/southwest based on the track of the low.
The 500 mb closed low associated with the remnants of Irma is expected to slide northeast from the Mississippi/Alabama area into the Ohio River Valley during this period.
112 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Low pressure near the California coast along with above normal moisture will produce good chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
In response, temps are cooler than yesterday at this time and the going forecast grids for today across central and east. Thus, lowered today's highs slightly as readings should be a bit cooler than yesterday.
Additionally, H8 temps Wednesday 1-2C higher than today will produce max temps into the low to locally mid 80s across the interior west half.
649 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure builds into the area today, but tight pressure gradient will make for gusty winds.
258 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 An upper level trof was departing the forecast area at the start of this forecast period. Behind it, upper ridging was working into the area, which was coinciding with surface ridging. An upper level trof moves across the forecast area on Thursday. Embedded pieces of vorticity will accompany the trof and generate some light snow, from west to east through the day.
231 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 With fresh snow, and the cool ridge of high pressure slowly exiting to our east, high temperatures will still be 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Went on the low end of available guidance for our eastern counties. Otherwise, low pressure skimming southwestern South Dakota and Nebraska, may bring very light snow to portions of mainly western South Dakota late tonight. A surface cold front will be just north of the region Thursday morning. High pressure then begins to approach from the northwest.
358 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Upper ridging building in from the west will keep the region on the east side of the ridge for the next few days.
Weak high pressure may bring a decrease in clouds this evening. On Thursday, a weak trough will sweep through the area, bringing a chance of light snow, that may mix with rain Thursday afternoon. The heaviest precip will be on Thursday afternoon, when temperatures are right around freezing. Model soundings indicate the the dominant p-type will be snow for much of this event, but given the near freezing temperatures in the afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see some rain mix in.
318 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure is forecast to weaken as a cold front approaches South Florida. The front is associated with a low pressure system that is forecast to move from the Great Lakes region this morning, to the northeast, remaining north of New England.
The main concern for today is the potential for a few strong to borderline severe storms across the area as a cold front moves through.
/issued 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) A cold front this afternoon was located near a San Angelo to Brownwood to Dallas line, with the front moving rapidly south across the southern 1/3 of West Central Texas. For Wednesday, expect much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s.
The precipitation has just about moved out of western sections and will exit the eastern areas by about mid morning as a cold front now over the plateau counties moves east. The strong cold front will bring in a much colder airmass today and tonight with lows tonight dropping to near or below freezing across the entire region. Only the central and southern urban areas of Knoxville and Chattanooga may stay at or a degree or so above freezing Thursday morning.
441 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 A cold front currently moving into the Upstate will move through the forecast area this morning along with showers and a few thunderstorms.
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 A cold front will move across the forecast area Wednesday bringing scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A 996mb low is analyzed over the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front moving through South Texas early this morning. Behind the front, a 1030mb high will push cooler air into the region, with falling temperatures through the day. Temperatures this morning in the mid 70s will be the highs with afternoon temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Precipitation chances should decrease later this afternoon and evening, though models indicate coastal troughing and weak overrunning may keep at least isolated drizzle or showers in the forecast through Thursday.
653 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure will build in the lower Ohio Valley today and then track east through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight and early Thursday.
448 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure will build in the lower Ohio Valley today and then track east through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight and early Thursday.
449 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Morning showers will end by midday, as a pronounced cold front sweeps across the area.
341 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 06Z surface data has a strong storm system over the eastern Great Lakes while high pressure was over the Plains. A weak boundary ran from the low across northern Illinois and into northeast Iowa. Dew points were in the 20s and higher from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley with single digits and teens across the central and northern Plains.
High pressure will build into the Carolinas with breezy northeast winds along the immediate coast. Highs will be cooler in the mid 70s for the Volusia coast to around 80/lower 80s from Orlando south and along the Treasure coast.
558 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 With fresh snow, and the cool ridge of high pressure slowly exiting to our east, high temperatures will still be 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Went on the low end of available guidance for our eastern counties. Otherwise, low pressure skimming southwestern South Dakota and Nebraska, may bring very light snow to portions of mainly western South Dakota late tonight. A surface cold front will be just north of the region Thursday morning. High pressure then begins to approach from the northwest.
308 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Almost all of the precip has moved out of the area except for a few spotty showers arriving along the true cold front. The high moves east of the area during the day Thursday allowing for a gradual shift in winds back to the south. Highs on Thursday remain below normal in the low to mid 60s.
633 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure builds into the area today, but tight pressure gradient will make for gusty winds.
320 AM MDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Northwest flow aloft will prevail today while an upper level ridge resides over the west coast. IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows a lot of mid and upper level moisture moving through this ridge. In addition a stronger cold front will eventually move across nern CO by midday Fri with upslope flow developing. This will allow for warmer temps. For Sat night into Sun an upper level trough will move quickly across the area with decent cold air advection. Across nern CO with favorable lapse rates in place may see a few showers and possibly a tstm as the upper level trough moves across. For Tue an upper level ridge will be over the area with dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs reaching the lower 70s across the plains and mid 60s in the mountain valleys. An upper low pressure system dropping out of Canada and crossing the Great Lakes region Thursday will push a cold front back into eastern Colorado that evening. Highs on Thursday will climb into the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s for the plains.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be a bit warmer conditions tomorrow with mainly dry conditions through the period. Weak WAA continues in the day Wednesday along with more sunshine, with daytime highs 10-15 degrees warmer than today, yet still well below normal for early April. Following this wave a sfc cold front will push southeast through the region early Thursday morning - Thurs afternoon, bringing a period of breezy northwest winds and a reinforced shot of cold air.
A cold front will move quickly through the forecast area this morning, with strong north winds aloft mixing to the surface, particularly across the north-central and northeast parts of the Combined Panhandles. Have omitted the southwest Texas Panhandle from the higher winds, due to this area being most removed from the strongest 850 mb winds. Winds turn to southeast tonight as post-frontal ridge builds into western Oklahoma. South and southwest winds increase on Wednesday as developing lee trof over eastern New Mexico creates a tight pressure gradient over the Panhandles. A weak cold front will pass on Thursday, with light to moderate northeast winds.
/ Issued 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ Main concerns in this forecast cycle are initial severe storm threat as the system and cold front move through AR. Then tonight behind the cold front, very cold air will filter into AR, and freezing to below freezing temperatures are possible over northern AR.
504 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 High pressure builds into the area today, but tight pressure gradient will make for gusty winds.
/issued 852 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ Another mild night is expected as we remain under the influence of upper level and surface ridging. Winds will remain fairly light until tomorrow night when a cold front traverses the region. Strong high pressure will then build in for the second half of the week, with modest easterly wind surges maintaining elevated winds.
Upper level ridging has shifted eastward extending northward from the Bahamas over Bermuda and into the Canadian Maritimes. An upper level low sits over the Great Lakes with associated weak troughing extending south through the Mississippi River Valley. On the surface, an area of low pressure sits over the eastern Great Lakes region with the associated frontal boundary extending south along the eastern seaboard.
Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings are expected ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow will continue tonight across our area as a cold front continues to approach our area from the northwest. Meanwhile, a squall line just ahead of the cold front, which is currently moving eastward across Mississippi, will likely move into our northwestern areas from 06Z-09Z, and continue to push southeastward across the FL Panhandle, SE Alabama, and parts of SW Georgia by sunrise. Low temperatures will reach the lower-mid 60s across our area. A cold front will be moving into the CWA early Wednesday bringing high rain chances for the day (around 80%) with precipitation ending by the evening. After the front moves through tomorrow, high pressure builds in at the surface and the rest of the short term remains dry.
516 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Currently - A mid latitude low lifting through the northeast is displacing eastwards a ridge extending across the Florida Peninsula. Ridging remains in place aloft although it is weakening. Forecast - The ridge to our north will continue to retreat eastwards over the next 24 hours. A high pressure system will swing eastwards into the southeastern United States over the next couple of days as the mid latitude low exits to the northeast.