Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
128 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017 Upper level ridging is building eastward into the Northern and Central Rockies toward the plains, with a closed upper low over Texas/Oklahoma. Mixing heights are limiting potential gusts this afternoon, however we will still see 15-20kt winds prevail through the early evening before decoupling of the low levels takes place. Some warmer guidance is indicating potential for mid 60s.
However, seeing some development in the Mississippi Valley near the surface front and upper low. Expect gusty northwest winds Wednesday afternoon as the cold front pushes eastward with gusts as high as 25 mph.
315 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 The cold front came through late yesterday evening with limited precipitation, but wind gusts did briefly peak out in the 30 to 40 MPH range during the passage.
306 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 A ridge of cold high pressure is settling into the forecast area this morning on the heels of yesterday's cold front passage. Highs today to get into the high teens and 20s for most locations, but probably the coldest day of this work week.
332 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Cold front that entered the area yesterday evening is now on the far eastern edge of the CWA and will be exiting shortly. Thus not expecting highs to make it much warmer than about 60 degrees today. The remainder of the week will be quiet as the region is under post frontal airmass followed by upper ridging.
MVFR ceilings will be close to KDRT near 09-12Z but should remain farther north over the higher Plateau. Cooler, stable conditions prevail this afternoon in the wake of the early morning cold front.
Low pressure was over the northern Great Lakes producing brisk northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph across the dvn cwa this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening to about 10 to 15 mph overnight, and will usher cooler temperatures into the area. Minimum temperatures should range from the lower 20s north to the mid 20s south. Wednesday: A cooler day is expected compared to today. However, guidance has come in several degrees warmer than previous runs as the deep upper level trough in the northeast United States shifts a bit farther east. This puts the dvn cwa on the western fringe of the trough with the really cold air well to our east. Northwest winds should be about 10 to 15 mph for much of the day, as high pressure builds into the mid MS Valley.
Cold front is quickly moving through the region and convection has pushed east of the area. By 05z the cold front was right over MSY and should push through ASD and NEW before 7z.
We are generally looking at afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
332 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Quiet weather will continue across the area today as the upper level trough moves off to the east and a high pressure ridge moves in behind the trough from the west. Could have some slightly gusty winds this morning with a tight gradient, but things diminish quickly this afternoon as the ridge begins to loosen the gradient. Winds will diminish more during the evening as the ridge is right over the CWA around midnight. Temps will be cooler today than the past several days, but will be right around normal for middle of Feb. Overnight temps should be below freezing. A warm front develops and lifts northward across central IL during Thu and into northern IL Thu night.
115 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Low pressure to the south today. Cold front late tonight into Wednesday.
The rain is associated with an upper low that is moving through the Mid-South. Expect rain to end rather quickly from West to East after midnight as a positively tilted longwave trough shifts into Middle Tennessee and Northwest Alabama.
255 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 We will see a return to dry and seasonably cool conditions today/tonight as an area of high pressure works slowly east from the Plains. However, what looks to be the start of a major warming trend will get underway on Thu as the high sinks southward toward the Gulf Coast and surface winds become more southwesterly.
The ridge currently over the northern Rockies will remain the dominant feature affecting the weather across the central high plains region over the next couple days.
Upper trough will move rapidly east across the Southern Appalachians this morning producing mostly rain, but some higher elevation snow is possible across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee; mainly above 3000 feet elevation where a tight 85h temperature gradient with sub-freezing air is impinging early this morning. Temperatures will be about five to eight degrees cooler today in the cold air advection pattern behind the departing pressure system.
1046 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 Tonight into Wednesday: An upper low circulation over north-central Texas with a mid- level deformation zone on the north flank, will shift eastward becoming absorbed within a deepening eastern CONUS upper trough.
This will play out to highs in the lower/mid 40s east of the Interstate 29 corridor to upper 50s over south central SD. What will likely make this warm spell so unique is the overall lack of any strong winds, and extreme nature of the low level thermal ridge.
If it were colder at the surface, this would have been a big snow for our area on the favored side of a low pressure aloft. Based on dual- pol radar data, snow was melting in the lowest 1 to 2 kft. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures are on the way over the next few days. /Issued 400 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/ An upper low currently moving into eastern Oklahoma will move east into Arkansas later this evening taking the rain with it. Skies will clear later tonight, allowing temperatures to fall close to the freezing mark in many locations.
Afternoon humidities down in the low to mid teens this afternoon.
Cold front will push across area with showers and storms today Dense fog has developed over much of the interior and Lake Okeechobee region this morning as sufficient surface moisture continues to advect in along a healthy southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching front. The highest risk for severe weather appears to be north of the forecast area where a low level jet will be present.
For the overnight, low clouds and fog will be the primary weather concern as the lower-levels of the atmosphere will moisten quickly ahead of the front. A band of showers and a few strong/ severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday as the cold front pushes across the waters.
1156 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Colder, more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind a cold front overnight along with a few flurries or light snow showers, especially closer to Lake Michigan. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the lower to middle 30s. However, the cooler air will be short- lived as warmer air surges back this weekend. Cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon into this evening, bringing temperatures back closer to reality for mid February. Very small potential that ice growth may not occur and a brief period of freezing drizzle could ensue. Lows will bottom out in the middle to upper 20s with only minimal recovery into the lower to maybe middle 30s Wednesday.
418 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Low pressure moving into the forecast area this morning will merge with a cold front and move off the coast this afternoon.
As an upper low continues to move east, VFR conditions will again return to dominate West Central Texas this evening. /issued 341 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Main upper level low over the Panhandle this afternoon continues to produce extensive cloud cover across West Central Texas. Otherwise, cooler tonight as clouds clear with lows in the 30s.
327 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Early morning analysis showed a weak cold front moving south across the area. Satellite imagery is showing broken-overcast cirrus over the southeast half of the CWA which is occurring on the north side of the upper low currently near the Bootheel. These upper clouds are shifting southeastward as the upper low moves east.
936 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017 With an upper ridge over the western CONUS, flow is northwesterly over the northern plains. Warm air will continue moving into the region as the upper ridge slowly transitions eastward.
Temp trends currently in the lower 50s for most locations will likely not deviate much into the overnight period, until the low pressure system passes to the s/e, thereby allowing cooler air to begin streaming into the area from the n by early Wed morning. This low exiting stage right will make rain end from west to east during the course of the morning. Cloud cover should also move eastward with the low, with the sun returning from west to east Wednesday afternoon.
Upper level ridging will build over the western CONUS today and tomorrow. A thermal ridge will build in its wake with H850 temps rising 5 C on Wednesday afternoon. An upper ridge will amplify across the northern branch of the upper jet across the northern plains, while an upper level trough embedded within the southern stream of the the upper jet will slowly move northeast out of Mexico into TX.
342 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 An area of high pressure currently over the tri-state region of ND, SD, and MN has produced light and variable winds. The winds will draw warmer air into the region with high temperatures reaching the 40s and 50s for most locations.
Gusty east winds are expected today, otherwise dry and warmer conditions the second half of the week. A stronger Pacific storm system will bring a very good chance of valley rain, mountain snow, cooler temperatures and gusty winds this weekend. Mostly sunny today with some flat cumulus clouds over the higher terrains.
Elsewhere, patchy mid level clouds near 060 are hanging on around the higher terrain. As the storm system which brought widespread rain and snow to the region exists to the east tonight, high pressure will build in from the west and northwest. Closed upper low exiting off the east this afternoon.
/issued 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/ The upper low that has provided widespread precipitation to the region the past 36 hrs continues moving eastward along the Red River. At the surface, high pressure will translate east in the wake of the storm system with lee side trough development into New Mexico by late in the day Wednesday. Based on recent temperature recovery behind these systems have favored the warmer side of guidance for high temperatures Wednesday under full sunshine. The large scale pattern during this time will still be comprised of a split flow regime along the west coast complete with a pair of southern latitude troughs - the first of which is already found diving over SW Arizona this afternoon.
351 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Forecast area currently between departing mid-level trough over the Great Lakes and ridge of high pressure building in from the Western CONUS.
1116 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 A weak cold front located over central Wisconsin this evening will shift south across our earea tomorrow morning bringing in a brief spell of colder weather for the Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night before temperatures soar well above normal again for the end of the week. Latest satellite data indicates the band of lower clouds that was associated with the front have gradually dissipated as they shifted into the lower Great Lakes this evening. winds will become more northwesterly as high pressure builds into the Mississippi River Valley. split between cooler air moving in with the northwesterly flow and more sunshine providing ample daytime heating.
411 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 An upper level trough will cross the area this morning with colder air arriving in its wake.
High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday with winds becoming north to northeast and weakening. The low level 850mb jet will strengthen overnight. /issued 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The morning cold front has pushed offshore, leaving high pressure in its wake to settle over the region. High temps today were held down in the lower to middle 70s. The next 36 hours will be cooler, with low temperatures tonight in the 40s and 50s, with more 40s than 50s Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mainly in the 60s, slightly cooler than normal for this time of year.
349 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 The latest surface map features low pressure moving across central Alabama, with another center passing across southwestern Quebec. High pressure is situated near the southwestern CONUS. Aloft, troughing is aligned from the Great Lakes downs across the mid- Mississippi Valley and then into the Desert Southwest. Temperatures have remained well above freezing across most locations in eastern Kentucky, with the exception of the higher elevations bordering Virginia, where light snow is falling close to the 2500 feet elevation mark or just lower. Ground temperatures remain above freezing; however, readings will continue to edge lower towards dawn. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the low to mid 40s, with clouds attempting to partially clear late.
437 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2016 Latest upper air analysis depicts a broad long wave trough over the CONUS. Within the trough is a smaller more subtle short wave trough moving onto the Central Plains. Ahead of this trough a band of snow had moved through the Tri-State Area leaving snowfall amounts of less than a half inch. Lows will be cooler than last night, falling to the upper teens. Monday will be dry and warmer as warm air advection increases. During the afternoon a pre- frontal trough will move into the northern part of the Tri-State Area, causing winds to turn to the northwest behind it.
The 00z analysis supports low clouds and areas of fog developing later tonight with dewpoints over the northeast Gulf in the low to mid 60s gradually advecting northward into an airmass characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, light surface winds, and mid to upper level dry air.
The RAP and HRRR seemed to have a good handle on current temperature trends and both forecast cooler temperatures by sunrise in northern and western Oklahoma than were in the grids, so have lowered mins in the north and west closer to the mins forecast by the high- resolution models. /issued 612 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ MVFR ceilings will move southeast of central Oklahoma this evening in the wake of a weak cold front. /issued 302 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ An active pattern is expected through this week with a series of cold fronts expected to pass by Oklahoma and north Texas. The first cold front is progressing southeastward today with temperatures falling into the 40Fs and gusty northerly winds behind the front.
Broad area of cloud cover continues to push west, and is near the Highway 83 corridor. Ahead of the cloud cover winds have gone light and temperatures have dipped down quite a bit, with the lowest being Rugby right now at -18. a surface arctic high axis extended from the high center north of the Great Lakes. The next arctic cold front extended from the northern border of Manitoba/Saskatchewan. This arctic cold front is forecast to move southeastward into northwestern ND later this evening and sweep across the state tonight.
Fog has reformed in parts of the Lower Treasure Valley, but it is not expected to become as dense or widespread as last night. However, temperatures are below freezing there and some very light deposition of ice will occur, so please watch for slippery spots on roads and sidewalks, etc. Patchy fog in the valleys, with more widespread areas of fog in the Lower Treasure Valley tonight. Light to moderate winds have mixed out the cold air in the lower valleys and removed the fog.
Southwest winds continue to decrease early this evening, and will shift to north with a weak cold frontal passage tonight. At KABI, the cold front will arrive around 630 PM, and winds will be gusty (gusts over 20 knots) for a few hours after the frontal passage. The front will usher in a drier and slightly cooler airmass for Monday.
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving into the Texas Panhandle. This short wave trough will quickly move eastward to across the Mid-Mississippi River valley Monday morning. This will push the cold front, over Northwest Texas this afternoon, into the northern counties of the forecast area around 12Z Monday. The front is expected to weaken as it reaches the area and should stall near the coast by late morning and move back as warm front through the afternoon.
533 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 A longwave trough of low pressure aloft remained entrenched across the lower 48 this morning. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern Iowa with a cold front extending to the southwest into southwest Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Along the SDak border, highs will remain in the upper 20s as a cold front arrives early afternoon.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A stacked closed low, currently centered over Nunavut Canada, will slide south, west of Hudson Bay. This movement nudges an Arctic cold front south into Northeast Montana late this afternoon and evening.
641 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea tonight as a cold front crosses the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley.
729 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Light snow has been slow to taper off today as we still have the influence of the upper trough overhead.
505 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1009mb low over central Iowa, with warm frontal boundary extending eastward along the I-80 corridor. one associated directly with the low and warm front from southern Iowa northeastward into the Chicago area and another associated primarily with WAA from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley. increasing synoptic lift ahead of the low and its associated upper wave will lead to the development of rain showers late this afternoon and evening. Once the low moves further away. it will pull a cold front through Illinois tonight.
Weak coastal trough over the area veering winds more SW at ALI. Should the trough shift a bit farther west. However trends show the trough shifting back southeast through the night. becoming variable as the trough remains to the south and a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north by early Monday morning. Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving into the Texas Panhandle. This short wave trough will quickly move eastward to across the Mid-Mississippi River valley Monday morning. This will push the cold front, over Northwest Texas this afternoon, into the northern counties of the forecast area around 12Z Monday. The front is expected to weaken as it reaches the area and should stall near the coast by late morning and move back as warm front through the afternoon.
505 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea tonight as a cold front crosses the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley.
Afternoon water vapor imagery loop depicted a broad low-amplitude upper trough centered across the high plains, with a fast west- northwest flow aloft from the Rocky Mountain Front Range westward.
650 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 A low pressure system will eject northeast from the Plains into the Great lakes tonight. This will allow a cold front to move across the Ohio Valley Monday morning, ending precipitation across the area.
High pressure is centered east of the Del Marva Peninsula with a ridge axis extending west-southwest all the way to the Bay of Campeche.
612 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 MVFR ceilings will move southeast of central Oklahoma this evening in the wake of a weak cold front. /issued 302 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ An active pattern is expected through this week with a series of cold fronts expected to pass by Oklahoma and north Texas. The first cold front is progressing southeastward today with temperatures falling into the 40Fs and gusty northerly winds behind the front.
Showers and areas of drizzle are expected to develop along a cold front as it moves across the area during the overnight/early morning hours. temperatures this afternoon are in the lower 60s across our northern areas to lower 70s across the southern areas. The tail end of a cold front will move across the region late tonight and during the day on Monday.
A ridge will gradually build over the region tonight into Monday but a weak disturbance will flatten the ridge across northern portions Monday afternoon. A moist westerly flow will return midweek with a strong cold trough moving into the region for the end of the work week.
light snow continues along the Continental Divide this afternoon with wind still gusting to near 50 mph over the higher terrain. Mozley West to northwest upper flow across the area Mon night into Tue, with continued light snow chances over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide into Tue afternoon. As a result, max temps over much of the east will be much colder, and areas near the KS border will likely stay below freezing. Cold air then retreats Thu as flat upper ridge migrates across southern Rockies, and expect a big increase in max temps along and east of the mountains.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 57 41 56 / 80 90 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 54 35 53 / 90 90 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 42 53 36 53 / 100 90 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 52 33 52 / 80 90 20 20 TN.
748 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea tonight as a cold front crosses the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley.
533 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 A few breaks in the cloud cover have allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 30s in spots this afternoon. dropping into the lower teens in the coldest spots.
546 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 A cold front that extended southeast of a KMKO-KADM-KLBB line at 23z will continue to move southeast tonight. /ISSUED 317 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front has allowed skies to become partly cloudy across a good portion of North Texas this afternoon. a cold front was moving through Oklahoma and is now just northwest of Wichita Falls. indications are that moisture will be lifted over the shallow cooler air by morning. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 50s near the Red River to the lower 60s across our southern counties.
Area radars show a rather lame cold front just SW on KLBB, but this will be a light windshift at best, w/fropa at KMAF at ~ 03Z.
323 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2016 Afternoon water vapor imagery loop depicted a broad low-amplitude upper trough centered across the high plains, with a fast west- northwest flow aloft from the Rocky Mountain Front Range westward.
* High for ceilings below 5000 feet through the TAF period * Moderate for visibility below 1/2 mile in snow until 04Z * High for snow as precipitation type through tonight Peak of the snowstorm late this afternoon into early this evening as max height falls/500 mb trough axis tracks into the Western Great Lakes. The good news is with temperatures rising close to the freezing mark overnight should allow snow plowed and treated roads to be good to go for Monday commute. Highs looking to be holding in the low to mid 30s.
Flying conditions are widely varied across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening as a cold front continues to work across the region. /Issued 353 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ Another dreary day, but rather a blustery start, as increasing pressure gradient ahead of the cold front allowed winds to gust 30- 35mph this morning. However, warm air advection also allowed temperatures to slowly climb through the day with afternoon temperatures managing to top out in the low 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, and locations further south seeing mid-50s to lower 60s. Cold front is moving through the CWA this afternoon with winds veering around to more north-northwesterly behind the front. After the rather mild day today, temperatures to start the work week will be a bit cooler behind the front with highs in the 40s and 50s.
405 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 A few breaks in the cloud cover have allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 30s in spots this afternoon. dropping into the lower teens in the coldest spots.