Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will push into the region Monday morning, with another chance of snow expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temperatures will be roughly 5 degrees cooler than today as a weak cold front associated with a clipper system moving across the Northern Plains passes through our area. Snow still on track for Monday night and Tuesday as an upper level trough drops south across the Rockies. Lift from the trough, jet, and cold front should produce a period of moderate snow. Northeast flow behind a cold front early Tuesday morning will enhance lift in and near the foothills. Would expect to find the higher amounts on the west side of the metro and the lighter amounts to the east.
An arctic air mass continued to shift off to our east overnight, allowing warmer air to creep in. Temperatures across much of the area slowly rose, reaching the low to mid 40s at many locations by 2 AM. Highs in the low 30s will be reached early this morning across parts of northeast Nebraska western Iowa.
Although warmer temps are expected tonight, overnight lows will fall to near climatic normals across most of the region. Highs will be similar to today, however, the "cooler" temperatures will be across our southern zones where cloud cover and rainfall should inhibit rising temperatures, keeping them in the lower to mid 50s. Areas to the north may see some clear skies Monday night which will allow temperatures to drop more than where cloud cover hangs on, so lows will range from the lower to mid 30s where skies are clear to the lower to mid 40s where cloud cover lingers.
344 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Discussion/Marine - Another Clipper today with lake enhanced snow showers The northwesterly flow will allow for lake enhanced snow this morning with the highest snowfall along the lakeshore with 4 to 6 inches possible, especially in our northwest counties. As the mid to upper level trough deepens and elongates over the area, downsloping flow with dry arctic air will settle over central lower Michigan and the 127 corridor.
The highest POPs continue to remain confined to southern and coastal portions of our CWA closer to the higher moisture and better ascent. Highs on Tuesday will be cool and are expected to range in the low to mid 50s.
Highs this afternoon will remain well below normal due to limited mixing and low-level trajectories originating from a cooler continental airmass. Tuesday will be warmer and closer to seasonal norms as the low-level airmass takes on more of a maritime influence.
1013 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Currently - Cool post cold front conditions persist across the Keys as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to drive moderate northwest to north breezes. Temperatures currently range from the mid 50s in the Upper Keys to mid 60s in the Lower Keys. Dew points are in the lower 50s. This will bring about one of the cooler night thus far for the season thus far. Temperatures will range broadly from the lower 50s in the Upper Keys to the mid to upper 60s in the Lower Keys. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will become centered off the southeastern gulf coast.
The trough axis shifts eastward throughout the day as the front advances, and by late morning, the northwest quadrant of the state will experience northwest winds. Daytime mixing will tap into a modest LLJ arriving from the north, and surface winds will begin to increase behind the trough axis by mid-day across northwest Oklahoma with 20-30 mph gusts spreading into north and parts of central Oklahoma by mid-afternoon. Despite the northwest winds, temperatures warm into the low to mid 60's by afternoon.
High and low temperatures have remained within a few degrees of one another today at many lower valley locations as high pressure persists. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt, then W-NW 5-12 kt Monday evening with cold front. An upper trough will move through late Monday through Monday night, bringing a slight chance of snow showers to central and south-central Idaho along with increased winds. However, this will be temporary as a high pressure ridge off the west coast moves inland allowing the inversion to strengthen through the end of the week.
1233 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Another low pressure system is poised to generate another inch or two of additional snow on Monday afternoon and evening. The eve update featured the ending of the Winter Weather Advisory as snow showers will continue to diminish through the eve with eastward progress of the low pressure trough. Expect a general 1-2 inches with higher amounts north of Pittsburgh, and in the ridges.
The next potential for light rain is on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves south of the area.
A dry air mass remains in place thanks to largely westerly low- level flow on the northern periphery of surface ridging centered off coastal Texas. By Monday afternoon, 60s will be common with "cooler" spots topping out in the upper 50s.
Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with the highest snow amounts favoring the western counties. Fair weather is in store through Monday as an upper level trough passes well to the south of Kansas, with the central high plains in dry northwest flow. A long wave trough will persist over the Great Lakes this week.
337 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Crossing low pressure will bring 1 to 2 inches of snow mid afternoon and through the evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. The cold front is progged to cross the region later this evening through early Tuesday. Northwesterly flow will support continued light snow/flurries along and north of the I-80 corridor and in the ridges. In general, 1-2 inches are forecast south of I-70/I-76 with 2-3 to the north and in the ridges south and east of PGH. Locally higher amounts will be possible north of I-80 and in the ridges. However, the highest rates will occur mid afternoon and into the evening and could create some issues during the afternoon / evening commute.
1019 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Cutoff low pressure system over the Southwest U. The next 24 hours will be dry with increasing mid/high cloud cover arriving in earnest Monday afternoon as another cold front slides down the Front Range.
Primarily clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 30s to around 40 degrees. Some very patchy freezing mist could occur in locations of DeKalb county and towards Lewis Smith Lake overnight, but do not think this will be dense enough to cause any freezing fog issues. Two upper level troughs of note to start the upcoming work week. There will be a trough that moves out of the Desert Southwest and move across Texas on Monday. Southwesterly flow ahead of these systems and an ample supply on sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s on Monday. The cold front associated with the clipper system will push through the forecast area early in the afternoon Tuesday.
Upper level trough remains over the eastern U. Light, lake-enhanced, orographic snow showers are likely to linger into Tuesday morning across the Alleghenies, as cold northwest flow pours across the Grt Lks behind trailing cold front. In contrast to recent days, temps on Tuesday will be near seasonable, ranging from the mid 20s over the northwest mountains, to the upper 30s in the Lower Susq Valley.
122 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Monday. Low pressure could affect the area Tuesday, followed by another cold air mass through the rest of the week. Thus, overall clear skies will be the rule into Monday under high pressure centered over the northern Gulf and a dry airmass overhead. A tighter pressure gradient has developed across the forecast area between the high to SW and low to the north. But with warmer temps and higher temp/dewpoint spreads out there (RH is 55 percent this hour at CHS), I'm not anticipating much, if any of a fog problem. Monday: High pressure and dry air will prevail across the area. Overnight, cloud cover will gradually increase due to low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to slightly warmer temperatures than previous nights.
Weak cold front continues moving southward into the area this evening as noted by northwest winds behind the boundary. Front will have little other impact on the weather, with lows tonight actually slightly warmer than we saw last night with lows in the 20s. Another cold front will bring a northerly wind shift after 00z Monday night at CKV, likely after the TAF period at all other sites.
A broad trough through the mid and upper levels will be over the eastern conus today, with a low level cold front/trough moving SE across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. We will have a SW flow over our area today that will help temps warm into the lower and mid 50s in the southern half where skies should be mostly sunny, and mid to upper 40s in the northern half where there will be some mid/upper level cloud cover as the upper jet streak will be in close proximity. The cold front will move into eastern KY tonight.
245 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 02Z water vapor imagery shows a broad upper low over the Hudson Bay with cyclonic flow across the northern and eastern parts of North America. There are some more subtle waves within the upper trough over the Dakotas and central Canada. At the surface, low pressure was observed along the MN/IA boarder with a trailing cold front extending into northeast MT. Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern and bring the cold front into the forecast area by the early afternoon with increasing cold air advection. A relatively warm start to the day thanks to the cloud cover should still allow for daytime highs to make it into the lower 50s for most areas.
400 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Weak high pressure will move offshore today leading to a moderating trend in temperatures. This moderating trend will continue Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will move through the area late Tuesday. Cold high pressure will slowly build into the area through mid-week.
A few showers are possible mainly across the southeast Midlands as moisture spreads north from the coastal low and a cold front approaches from the west.
930 PM PST Sun Jan 23 2022 Onshore flow will bring cooler weather near the coast Monday, but inland areas will remain quite mild for January.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently working its way east out of far west Texas and southern New Mexico. With increasing synoptic ascent over the area ahead of this low, isolated light showers have formed mainly in the Northern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Concho Valley early this morning. With progressive upper level flow, this low, which is expected to open into more of a wave today, will continue to be pushed to the east very quickly, passing over West Central Texas later this morning. With downsloping winds out of the west and clearing skies, high temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in the mid 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be on the cooler side hovering right around freezing in many locations.
A cold front backing in from the northeast will bring cooler temperatures into the region on Monday. Brusda 1055 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 (24/06Z TAF period) VFR conditions will prevail over the region through early Monday morning as a cold front begins to push through the area. A backdoor cold front associated with colder air in Central Canada will arrive during the day Monday, producing a shift to north- northwest winds and gradually cooler temperatures. Skies clear out on Tuesday as ridging aloft rebuilds over the region. Mild and breezy conditions return through the remainder of the week with a strong, high amplitude ridge over the western U.
Low stratus and patchy freezing fog continues this morning. In some areas fog is considerably dense and even some light freezing drizzle or flurries is occurring in isolated areas. A cold front will approach the region from the north later tonight. With that said, the potential exists for up to an inch in most places with up to a couple inches on the ridges.
905 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Primarily clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the lower 30s to around 40 degrees. Some very patchy freezing mist could occur in locations of DeKalb county and towards Lewis Smith Lake overnight, but do not think this will be dense enough to cause any freezing fog issues. Two upper level troughs of note to start the upcoming work week. There will be a trough that moves out of the Desert Southwest and move across Texas on Monday. Southwesterly flow ahead of these systems and an ample supply on sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s on Monday. The cold front associated with the clipper system will push through the forecast area early in the afternoon Tuesday.
This will serve to drive a cold front south across the Central Plains late in the day on Monday but based on the timing, above normal temperatures will prevail across the forecast area. Another cold front is expected to impact the region late on Thu but temperatures are expected to climb ahead of the front with seasonable values anticipated. A mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the rockies late in the week while translating eastward into the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to rise for much of the night before a cold front moves through early monday morning. Temperatures will peak in the 20s to mid 30s late tonight before a cold front moves through. Patchy blowing snow may occur along the Buffalo Ridge during the afternoon hours before winds die down by sunset. After a chilly, but dry, Tuesday with highs ranging from around zero along the Buffalo Ridge to near 20 degrees along the MO River, expect a moderating trend for the rest of the week.
Warmer air not making into the valley and will see a switch to north wind next few hours.
The main uncertainty through this time will be the eastward expansion of the lower clouds toward Pullman and Lewiston overnight. Drier air accompanying the northerly push should be strong enough to break up the low clouds for a few hours from Coeur D Alene, Spokane, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, Omak, and Colville.
Temperatures are currently below freezing in the entire warning area. An extensive U/L trough over eastern North America will persist through much of the week.
957 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 The forecast focus is on the back-door cold front that pushes across the area Monday night and the cold temperatures and snowfall that will follow it Monday night through Tuesday as a series of short wave troughs embedded in the northwest flow aloft move across the central high plains region. High pressure aloft is maintained off the west coast of northern California with northwest flow directing a series of progressive open troughs across the Intermountain and Rocky Mountain regions that subsequently move across the Plains states through the middle of this week.
Winds will then shift to northerly behind a passing cold front between 15-18Z with winds 10-20 kts subsiding to 5-15 kts past 00Z Tuesday through the end of the TAF period. Overall, outside of a cold front, the short term is relatively quiet with mild temperatures. The cold front comes through tomorrow afternoon, but we should maximize heating before the passage, so highs are expected reach the 50s to low 60s before the colder airmass infiltrates into the Panhandles. An H5 closed low passing over the Desert Southwest will get engulfed into the mean flow tonight into tomorrow and stay south of the Panhandles. A cold front will be well south of the Texas Panhandle and easterly upslope flow will be increasing.
1230 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday. Cold high pressure will slowly build into the area through mid-week.
Another clipper system will amplify southeast through the lower Great Lakes on Monday with another round of light accumulating snow.
Monday night and into Tuesday, the high pressure system bringing the cold air will settle into the Upper Mississippi Valley and keep the winds out of the northeast. Moisture in the low levels remains lacking and as such, chances for much if any snow will be limited and is expected to remain to the west of the CWA for now where the best upslope conditions exist.
A little bit warmer today with sunny skies this morning.
522 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance The next in a series of arctic cold fronts will move southeast across our region this evening. The arctic high pressure center will be associated with a very dry air mass, which has pretty much zeroed out any chance of precip on Tuesday. Although skies will become sunny Tuesday, strong cold advection will keep temps from getting above freezing over all but the Tennessee and Arkansas border counties.
401 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 A cold front will push south of the area this morning. Arctic high pressure will settle overhead for the middle portion of the week. Arctic high pressure settles overhead Thu morning.
Given that the high pressure axis is over western ND to eastern KS, the CWA will have light winds to help drop the wind chills into the -40F to -45F range for portions of the CWA.
The short wave and a weak cold front won't have much moisture to work with, and they'll be working against a strong ridge, so only light snow is expected today and this evening with less than an inch expected at valley locations. Then the ridge quickly reasserts itself for the rest of the week, keep the valleys in fog and stratus with some "bluebird" days in the mountains.
648 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Aviation - Another Clipper today with lake enhanced snow showers The northwesterly flow will allow for lake enhanced snow this morning with the highest snowfall along the lakeshore with 4 to 6 inches possible, especially in our northwest counties. As the mid to upper level trough deepens and elongates over the area, downsloping flow with dry arctic air will settle over central lower Michigan and the 127 corridor.
Weak ascent on the leading edge has provided some widely scattered light precip with most reports likely rain given the boundary layer temps outside the highest peaks of the Glass Mtns. A tepid remainder of the short term as zonal flow encompasses the region in wake of the departing trough, and a shallow cold front inches through the northern half of the forecast area on late- Tuesday. Airmass will be slightly cooler at first, but a secondary reinforcing shot of very cold air will usher south by the very end of the forecast period. Highs on Tuesday will range from the 60s south and west of the I-20 corridor to the 50s north of the cold front.
Cold air draining off the mainland has driven temps in the Upper Keys down into the lower 50s, with Ocean Reef reporting 49F this hour. Water vapor imagery shows a broad and deep longwave trough dominating the eastern CONUS and extending southward to the Bahamas, while a ridge remains over the western CONUS, and a closed low ejects from the Desert Southwest into West Texas. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered along the northern Gulf coast, while a weak low pressure trough develops over the far western Gulf and into deep South Texas. We will see noticeably warmer temps with highs reaching the mid 70s.
Southerly winds redevelop quickly this morning in response to the next cold front developing across the Plains.
Observed lows in the low to mid 30s for most of the area, with low 40s in coastal Martin County. Broad high pressure will transit overhead today.
The result will be a light wintry mix of precipitation, but mainly snow, with the highest pops and amounts over the higher terrain of North Idaho today.
344 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 NW flow from the low to mid levels allows for continued cold air advection to move through the region.
The Alberta clipper is expected to send a potent cold front southeastward through the CWA between mid-morning and late afternoon. Thanks to low-level west-southwesterly flow and the WAA, locations along and ahead of this cold front's midday position are expected to quickly warm into the 50s F. In addition to temps beginning to steadily cool as strong low-level CAA ensues following frontal passage, low to mid- level frontogenesis lagging the surface cold front could also produce a band of light precip.
329 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 A cold front will move into Central Montana from the northeast today with light snow expected from early this afternoon through Tuesday morning. A cold high pressure system over Saskatchewan and Montana will push a "backdoor" cold front into central and eastern portions of the NWS Great Falls forecast area today and tonight. The effects of this weather system will be short-lived as the high pressure system moves into the Northern Great Plains on Tuesday. Behind these system, a low pressure trough develops along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains for a return to gusty westerly winds with temperatures gradually rebounding back above seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Mostly dry conditions are also expected due to high pressure aloft shunting Pacific moisture northward into Canada.
Upper level northwesterly flow continues over the northern and central High Plains around a deep low pressure system over Hudson Bay. A cold front associated with this disturbance will move south through western Kansas this morning. A 700 mb trough will be moving southeast through eastern Colorado and far western Kansas.
A ridge of high pressure along the coast and a dry airmass should continue to provide chilly nights and a mix of fog and frost in the San Joaquin Valley, with above normal high temperatures. A ridge along the West Coast should continue to provide cool nights and above normal temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure will bring fair weather conditions through the week. High pressure persists in the Pacific NW, bringing an omega blocking pattern that will become more defined later in the week. The persistent high, centered offshore, will characterize a more positive and stable air profile as subsidence compresses down to the lower boundary. Otherwise, mostly fair weather will last through the end of the week as the blocking pattern tightens and lows develop to the east and west, similar fashion to the Greek letter omega.
Increasing negative theta-e advection behind the cold front will dry the low-level profiles by the late morning/early afternoon and bring the threat of flurries to an end. Max temperatures for today will occur this morning (teens), with the low level warm nose being shunted south as the upper level trough digs down the Mississippi River Valley.
313 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Utah and southwest Wyoming will remain under northerly flow on the front side of a ridge off the Pacific coast for much of the upcoming week.
NW flow from the low to mid levels allows for continued cold air advection to move through the region.
520 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently working its way east out of far west Texas and southern New Mexico. With increasing synoptic ascent over the area ahead of this low, isolated light showers have formed mainly in the Northern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Concho Valley early this morning. With progressive upper level flow, this low, which is expected to open into more of a wave today, will continue to be pushed to the east very quickly, passing over West Central Texas later this morning. With downsloping winds out of the west and clearing skies, high temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in the mid 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be on the cooler side hovering right around freezing in many locations.
320 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest MN, with arctic front from southeast SD to southwestern ND. Upper level analysis continues to show low over the Hudson Bay region, with large scale trough covering the central and eastern US. Ridging is centered off the west coast, with fast northwest flow across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Colder air will be relatively short-lived as the boundary settles just west of the area Tuesday and then moves east as a warm front Tuesday night.