Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A fair weather pattern will develop through the weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the west coast.
Upper level analysis places ridge building over the Pacific northwest, with active northwest flow over our area.
336 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Main area of showers and thunderstorms has exited the state, but radar shows a few showers developing ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is on the door step of the forecast area at 3 PM. Much colder air will move into the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage this evening, with lows by Thursday morning in the lower to middle 30s. It will also be much cooler on Thursday with highs from 45 to 50.
210 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2017 Mostly sunny and cool conditions will continue rest of today through Thursday under a drier northwest flow aloft as a ridge of high pressure builds across the west. The exception to the mostly sunny conditions is the northern Park range where some light orographic snowfall is occurring at the higher peaks. Still adjusted through Thursday night towards the cooler side of guidance and a bit colder than guidance in the eastern most snow-covered valleys.
Behind this is a meso-scale Ridge/Trough couplet over the Gulf of Alaska. Thursday through Thursday night: A brief clearing is expected Thursday morning but by the late afternoon the ridge upstream will have moved inland and enlarge into synoptic size.
433 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 A strong cold front will pass through the area early tonight.
An increasingly dry and warmer west-northwesterly flow aloft will set up for the latter half of the week. Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the western CONUS this morning, downstream from a low amplitude ridge centered just off the Pacific Coast. The upstream ridge axis is forecast to slowly build inland over the next couple of days resulting in a warming trend through the end of the week.
305 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis from central ND into western NEb. The surface reflection of this trough is low pressure over eastern MT and this will also track southeast through SD and into IA over the next 24 hours.
154 PM PST Wed Mar 1 2017 High pressure will bring dry conditions, light winds, and a slow warming trend through Thursday.
Our approaching cold front continues to push eastward, stretching from OH down to southwestern LA. National radar mosaic shows a narrow line of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. The dynamics for this system are potent for neighbors to our north, but as the front approaches our local area, instability will be dropping quickly and the low level, mid and upper level jets will be lifting northeastward.
Will see breezy conditions in the lower basin and foothills in Oregon and in portions of the Kittitas valley.
731 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 A slow moving cold front will drop south across the area tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop and move just off the coast on Friday accompanied by showers. High pressure will build in over the weekend.
Currently there is still some small lingering showers to the west and southwest of the CWA due to a cold front passing through earlier this evening. /12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Friday: At mid afternoon a slow moving shallow cold front with general zonal flow aloft was making its way across the forecast area. Cooler temperatures will make its way across the region from the north through tonight. It will be a little cooler tonight compared to last night with lows from the middle 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. In the wake of the front on Friday cold air advection will bring cooler highs from the middle 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. It won't take long however for warmer and more humid air returns to the region.
512 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through tomorrow as high pressure currently over the northern Plains moves southeastward into Missouri and Illinois by Friday afternoon.
908 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas. Cool conditions will continue tonight and Friday as the high settles over the area. (ISSUED 600 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 ) High pressure over the northern Plains will move southeast into the Midwest through the period.
521 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Cooler than average temperatures will carry into the weekend.
801 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2017 Recent real-time data and near-time computer simulations indicate that the potential for widespread light freezing/frozen precipitation and dense fog have decreased across Pueblo county, therefore have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for Pueblo county. Patchy Freezing Drizzle. Soundings indicate conditions will likely remain saturated for a continuation of fog, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle over parts of the plains this evening, mainly across El Paso, Pueblo and easter Fremont Counties. Don't think there will be the lift or depth to the stratus this time to squeeze out more precip so thinking just stratus this time around, although freezing fog could be a possibility if the fog gets thick enough. Again, the higher amounts would favor the central mountains north of Monarch Pass. May end up being several degrees cooler than that.
Rain associated with a cold front will continue to slide across the northern half of the area this afternoon and then drift southward during the night. The cold front will then accelerate southward Friday afternoon as an upper trough passes by to the northeast.
900 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 An upper level trough seen in the water vapor imagery will move eastward and overhead central FL later tonight. The low level ridge axis will remain across the nrn peninsula with light onshore flow in the lower levels south of the Cape in the 1-3 kft layer. Surface winds will be light to calm with high pressure nearby.
The combination of cloud cover and this light precipitation will result in some slightly warmer low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in most areas in the central and southern Valleys. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 49 27 52 / 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 45 21 48 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 45 22 50 / 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 41 15 45 / 20 10 10 0.
/issued 301 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ A cold front remains located from near Atlanta, Georgia to Natchez, Mississippi. Showers associated with a weak low pressure center that developed along the front continue to impact Northeast Mississippi. Highs will be similar to today with readings in the lower to mid 40s.
825 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 01z sfc analysis shows low pressure off to the southeast of the area with high pressure sliding across the Ohio Valley. This should promote a decent ridge to valley temperature split in the north through the night as the winds go near calm and an inversion sets up. Currently readings range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in the northwest and the eastern valleys to the lower 40s in the far south. Have updated the forecast grids to reflect the on going temperature striation and hone in on cloud influenced ridge to valley distinctions as well as to fine tune the sky cover through the rest of the night.
1033 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 A wave of low pressure and its associated cold front will move further offshore overnight. High pressure will gradually build into the area, bringing much colder temperatures across the eastern Carolinas Friday and through the weekend.
442 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northwest SD, with arctic boundary still along the lee of the Rockies. Warmer air aloft will aggressively build over the area on Friday. Temps will not drop much Friday night as clouds build into the area with advancing warm front. Milder air will continue to push into the area for the weekend as arctic boundary pushes north and east into the area as a warm front.
/ISSUED 223 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Early this afternoon, the cold front that passed through our area yesterday is approaching the Texas coast and extends westward through the Rio Grande Valley. This is occurring ahead of a deep closed low off the California/Oregon coast.
858 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cold front crossed the region earlier today and is now about 20 miles off the coast. Cooler and drier air is filtering into SE TX with temperatures in the upper 40s north to the mid 60s coast.
835 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Cooler than average temperatures will carry into the weekend.
With dry high pressure over the upper midwest tonight and Friday should see very little in the way of clouds. There is an upper level trough that will be moving through the Arrowhead this evening and across northern WI overnight, but with such a dry air column, not expecting any precipitation nor much in the way of clouds. High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland Friday night, but the next round of precipitation will bring increasing clouds as the night wears on.
1020 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cold front in the forecast area tonight will be just south of the area Friday.
On Friday the low ceilings will likely hang around. Again KGLS is the lowest confidence forecast.
These should level off as clouds move in, but as readings are already below forecasted lows in spots have lowered temps more in that area into the lower teens below zero. As high pressure slides off towards the Ohio Valley to end the work week, temperatures will briefly warm again ahead of a weak area of low pressure and associated upper wave. Weak ridging and a slight cooldown will return to end the weekend before we head into the new work week.
421 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Tonight through Friday: At mid afternoon a slow moving shallow cold front with general zonal flow aloft was making its way across the forecast area. Cooler temperatures will make its way across the region from the north through tonight. It will be a little cooler tonight compared to last night with lows from the middle 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. In the wake of the front on Friday cold air advection will bring cooler highs from the middle 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. It won't take long however for warmer and more humid air returns to the region.
512 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cooler air mass has spread into the area today as afternoon temperatures are currently in the 30s. Southerly winds will start to return from west to east Friday night as the high starts to move off to the east.
Cold front boundary has pushed through much of South Texas having slowed down across the Southern Coastal Bend as a weak sea breeze-like boundary pushed inland. However, latest radar scans have shown continued southeastward movement of the cold front. For the most part, areas behind the front will remain cool as northerly flow will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions. Otherwise, a much cooler air mass is expected to be in place tonight through Friday night, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and day time highs in the low to mid 50s inland and in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.
/ISSUED 318 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Much cooler day across North Texas today as the cold front has pushed into south/southeast Texas. though temps will be a bit warmer and winds will be lighter than today. As with the majority of the cold front passages this winter. the cooler air will not stick around for long as zonal flow continues into the weekend.
355 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2017 AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE in moderate northwest flow aloft WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS overnight. PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT SNOWFALL AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY A FEW MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
Most short-term guidance (NAM12/HRRR/HRRRX) suggests these low clouds (2500-4500 ft stratus) will remain quasi-persistent through the overnight hours, which should keep temperatures slightly warmer than the previous forecast. /ISSUED 223 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Early this afternoon, the cold front that passed through our area yesterday is approaching the Texas coast and extends westward through the Rio Grande Valley. This is occurring ahead of a deep closed low off the California/Oregon coast.
Patchy Freezing Drizzle. Soundings indicate conditions will likely remain saturated for a continuation of fog, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle over parts of the plains this evening, mainly across El Paso, Pueblo and easter Fremont Counties. Don't think there will be the lift or depth to the stratus this time to squeeze out more precip so thinking just stratus this time around, although freezing fog could be a possibility if the fog gets thick enough. Again, the higher amounts would favor the central mountains north of Monarch Pass. May end up being several degrees cooler than that.
917 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure will slowly build into the region through the end of the week.
623 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: The cold front was north of HBG at 00Z but wl pass through HBG by 02Z. /22/ Tonight through Friday: At mid afternoon a slow moving shallow cold front with general zonal flow aloft was making its way across the forecast area. Cooler temperatures will make its way across the region from the north through tonight. It will be a little cooler tonight compared to last night with lows from the middle 30s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. In the wake of the front on Friday cold air advection will bring cooler highs from the middle 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. It won't take long however for warmer and more humid air returns to the region.
Early this evening a cold front was analyzed just north of I-10 across south Louisiana, then arcing southwest along the Texas coast. A cold front stretches from deep South Texas to the East Texas Lake Region and eastward across CenLA to the Carolinas.
/issued 218 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Back to reality today behind a strong cold front that moved through overnight.
A weak cold front pushed through central CA overnight bringing a band of mainly light precipitation to our area. 18Z WRF indicating another Pacific cold front will push through central CA Friday morning and RH and omega progs are indicating more moisture and dynamics with this system than the system that moved through our area earlier today.
here are the highlights in order of "most importance": 1) Snow amounts: Kept all areas at least slightly below 1", but nudged most Nebraska zones up to at least half-inch potential if not more (especially west), and added some light accumulation potential under one-half inch to most KS zones as well. Model forecast soundings indicate that as system arrives, it will take time for the low levels to saturate and once the low levels begin to saturate, moisture decreases in the dendritic zone. Amounts within the snow band could reach a half inch to near an inch given the high liquid to snow ratios with the cold temps, while locations outside the band see little if any snow accumulation.
317 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northwest SD, with arctic boundary still along the lee of the Rockies. Warmer air aloft will aggressively build over the area on Friday. Temps will not drop much Friday night as clouds build into the area with advancing warm front. Milder air will continue to push into the area for the weekend as arctic boundary pushes north and east into the area as a warm front.
The sky was cloud free this evening ahead of the cold front, but some scattered showers are possible tonight as it passes through. Cold front is situated across central Mississippi and central Louisiana near Alexandria and should steady nudge southward overnight. Temperatures tomorrow will be running about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this afternoon's readings along with low cloudiness and gusty northwesterly winds.
637 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cold front in the forecast area tonight will be just south of the area Friday.
559 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Cooler than average temperatures will carry into the weekend.
An area of high pressure will remain to our north through the next several days. Another ridge will build in over the central Mississippi Valley late Friday, then slide to the east through the weekend. As the ridge builds in, winds will trend upward, while shifting to the east.
600 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure over the northern Plains will move southeast into the Midwest through the period.
NW winds, preceding arrival of Canadian high pressure, brought colder temps to E Iowa/NW Illinois today. This Evening and Tonight: High pressure moving into the Plains and Upper Midwest setting up a seasonably cold night in the 10s most locations, with upper single digits in the counties along highway 20. And coupled with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs should be a few degrees warmer than today (Thursday).
HOWEVER, MODELS DEPICT A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRIEFLY TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS.
THEN A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
640 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
532 AM MDT THU APR 21 2016 CORRECTED FOR MINOR TYPO IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE LONG AWAITED ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES TODAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT AROUND THE AREA TO KICK OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND IS NOT IMPACTING THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER THIS MRNG/AFTN AS ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA.
Temps running several degrees cooler this morning as Ern Pac trof moves inside 130W and approaches the Coast. some 5 degrees or so cooler than yesterday. Precipitation chances will increase tonight and Friday as the negative tilt trough swings through the area. The initial front is forecast to move quickly through the region late tonight and Friday morning followed by more convective precipitation during the afternoon and evening as the upper trough swings through.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND THIS MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SETS IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KICKS IN.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER/MID 80S WELL INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY NUDGE FARTHER SEAWARD AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. VEERING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SUBSIDENT DRY LAYER. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
541 AM MDT THU APR 21 2016 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THAT THE UPPER LOW THAT PLAGUED OUR AREA SINCE LATE LAST WEEK HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE MO VALLEY. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 21/00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGGING A LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE STORMS AND FOR CLOUDINESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS DUE TO THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT OR LIFT INTO THE 030-040AGL RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE SHRA AND A FEW TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 05-09Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING (~15Z AT KMSL AND ~17Z AT KHSV).
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
Stable conditions over the forecast area will preclude any chance for a shower before subsidence kicks in behind the trof axis. /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016/ Isolated showers will remain possible this morning as upper trough axis passes however given recent trends in all data the overall coverage of measurable precip will remain very low.
Otherwise the story of interest for today and tonight will be the threat of precipitation associated with the now migratory upper low/trof and attendant cold front. We will see some scattered showers developing later this morning across the northeast part of the CWA along and ahead of the cold front and in association with upper forcing. Given low freezing levels due to the cold air aloft, hail will be possible with the stronger storms, possibly up to the size of quarters in a few of the strongest storms. There should be an overall downswing in coverage of activity this evening as diurnally driven instability wanes and the upper trof and front pass to the east. A secondary cold front will then begin moving into the area overnight.
THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TO THE EAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPR JET DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. WHILE A RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE MORE ROBUST LOW/MID-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NNEWD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AFTER THE LOW EXITS TO OUR EAST. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REBOUND RATHER QUICKLY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHLY MODIFIED NORTH PACIFIC/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING PACIFIC STORM.
812 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPR LOW OPENS INTO A TROF AND EVENTUALLY DRIVES AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD THRU THE RGN. SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU FRI EVE BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT AS THE UPR TROF COMPLETES IT/S PASSAGE THRU THE RGN. BUILDING RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD END BY 22/00Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. A DRY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
VERY WARM TODAY IN SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. PACIFIC UPPER LOW NEAR 45/145 THIS MORNING WILL TRACK DUE EAST AND REACH THE OREGON COAST LATE FRIDAY.
901 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY KEEPING THE HIGH RISK OF RIP GOING.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016/ Isolated showers will remain possible this morning as upper trough axis passes however given recent trends in all data the overall coverage of measurable precip will remain very low.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.