Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds were spreading north into western WY in advance of a Pacific cold front over the Intermountain West. Upper ridge is forecast by the models to translate east into the Plains during the next 24 to 36 hours.
1243 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Not much to say about today, other than ideal! Weak backdoor cool front has pushed through much of the forecast area, but really will have little effect on temperatures, with highs just a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
228 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 The upper level ridge responsible for the dry and mild weather across Texas the past few days will remain in place through Sunday.
Warm and dry conditions will prevail as high pressure firmly entrenches itself over the forecast area.
The upper air flow will be dominated by a blocking pattern with a large cut off upper level low over the northeast conus and another over the southwest conus. In between, a high amplitude ridge will be in place over the Midwest. The main area of high pressure at the surface will be centered over western Ontario but the ridge axis will extend well south through the Mississippi River Valley. Air temperatures should cool into the lower 30s, so with temp/dew point spreads of 5 to 7 degrees, some concern about how much frost will be able to form. Confidence is this period is pretty low on what is going to occur as the models are really struggling with the breaking down of the blocking pattern.
353 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A beautiful early May spring day as temperatures are warming into the lower 80s. Large amplified ridge axis across the Rockies providing this dry and stable upper-mid level northwest flow pattern. increasing moisture/humidity levels each subsequently warmer day through mid week.
422 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough across the ern U. with a ridge in the Rockies and plains this morning. With how dry the low level airmass is today, this will allow colder temperatures for tonight and also allow a greater range in temperatures as well.
A cold front being analyzed from north central Montana to northwestern Wyoming, into southern Idaho. The upper low remains nearly stationary, spinning across Arizona. Cloud cover and precipitation will help produce a cooler day.
211 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
338 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Today through tonight: The pleasant conditions will continue for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening as high pressure at the surface sits in place across the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will remain on the cool side as they fall into the low and middle 50s. Conditions will be a bit warmer than those observed on Saturday. /19/ The strong upper trough will continue to move off to the east on Sunday as upper ridging builds into the ArkLaMiss from the Southern Plains.
Early afternoon temperatures were in the low to mid 60s at most locations. High pressure, a light wind, and a mostly clear sky will allow for chilly temperatures tonight, especially over the northeast third of the forecast area. The lower end of forecast guidance favors lows in the mid 30s over extreme northwest Illinois. For Sunday, the warmer end of guidance is favored based on how temperatures are trending today, and weak WAA anticipated in the west Sunday. Highs are forecast in the low 60s near Freeport, to the low 70s in the far southwest.
1206 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Weak high pressure over the western Gulf will gradually move east.
245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 WV imagery shows the highly-amplified ridge moving directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in temps approaching normal at just after 17Z, and set to top out in the 90s most locations later this afternoon. Out west, a developing upper trough off the CA coast is muscling onshore, and pushing the ridge east.
Chilly to start tomorrow morning but plenty of sunshine will allow temps to climb into the lower to mid 60s for most, and upper 60s across the Southern Valley. At the first of this period, the upper trough will still be close to the area, but its axis will be east of us, so most of the active weather will be east of us.
Broad mid-upper level trof continues over the eastern third of the country for the near term, with deep mid-upper level dry northwesterly flow over the area.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure over Texas with a weak cold front beginning to enter portions of Northwest Tennessee. A weak cold front will drop through the Mid-South through this evening.
/issued 231 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Warmer conditions are expected this afternoon as surface winds return from the south and heights increase from west to east under an upper level ridge. This ridge will shift directly overhead tomorrow, and temps will continue to respond in the upward direction. Shower and thunderstorm chances are still expected to increase overnight Tue as a closed low moves somewhere just south of the 4 corners region. The highest rain chances are expected by Wed with this feature.
401 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Scattered showers associated with an upper level low over the eastern U.
Skies quickly clear and winds diminish as a ridge of high pressure builds across the state this evening. Upper level ridge currently along the east slopes of the Rockies will edge eastward, but not in any particular hurry as our deep upper trough over the eastern U. Early in the new week, the ridge will get a nudge eastward by a cutoff low that forms near Los Angeles later today.
Tonight the thermal trough will also start to build along the coast but guidance keeps the trough confined mainly along Curry County coast up to Cape Blanco. This would make southern Curry County warmer than inland locations with the exception of the lower Klamath River Valley from Happy Camp south.
Tonight the aforementioned ridge shifts into west central Wisconsin, and clouds increase as a decaying disturbance aloft moves over the area. Expect low temps to range from the low/mid 30s from west central WI, to the mid/upper 30s in central MN near Mille Lacs, to the low and mid 40s across the remainder of central/southern MN counties.
324 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) This afternoon, an upper low is dropping south off the California coast, and an upper trough encompasses much of the eastern third of the CONUS. Between these features, an upper level ridge extends from northeastern Mexico north across the High Plains and into southern Canada west of Lake Manitoba. The ridge will be our dominant feature tonight and Sunday, with the ridge axis gradually shifting east across our area.
Based on latest data it doesn't look like temps will rise much above freezing above 5k feet for the rest of the day. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 46 69 45 / 70 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 65 45 / 70 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 42 66 43 / 70 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 40 61 38 / 70 40 10 0.
Currently the center of the low is digging just southwest of San Francisco, which is fairly well on track with the models.
Northwest flow aloft will persist as the large eastern conus upper trough gradually shifts eastward.
Northwest winds behind the associated cold front will usher additional cool and dry air into the area.
Shallow cool airmass over the Great Lakes continues to funnel southwestward into Iowa with cooler air over the eastern areas than central/southwest. Sliver of the H ridge will drop due south tonight and affect the northeast with cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 with mid to upper 40s over the central/southwest locations. a developing warm front and mid to high level clouds forming in a zone of mid level lift over western MN/Eastern SD will stream southeast intersecting the northeast/eastern counties by 12z Sunday.
Forecast high temperatures were raised a couple degrees with most areas expected to reach the mid to upper 70s, much warmer than yesterday's record cool highs. Latest forecast wind gusts do barely exceed wind advisory criteria (30 kts) in the higher terrain of Cherokee County (Lookout Mountain) but coverage is not great enough for a wind advisory. Moisture is very limited with dewpoints barely reaching the low 50s right ahead of the front.
153 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A mid/upper ridge remains parked across the Central Conus with mild and dry weather conditions in place.
Overall, a few degrees cooler than yesterday as there is slightly cooler air aloft over the region. Starting off with the 500mb ridge stretching from Mexico up through the border with MT/WY/ND/SD and through Saskatchewan.
As the upper level trough along the West Coast progresses eastward, the biggest change anticipated for Sunday and Sunday night will be much cooler temperatures from those of today and tonight.
/Issued 358 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017/ A deep low pressure system will lift out of the southeast through the short term. Have hoisted a wind advisory for the higher terrain (above 2kft) through 18Z with some gusts already being observed around 35-40mph. Another strong impulse rounding the aforementioned trough will approach by mid-afternoon. Those in the higher terrain will be in the 50s/60s. 26 GFS/ECMWF in good agreement as east coast trough weakens and upper ridge builds into the southeast states through mid week. Much of north and central GA should be under the influence of the ridge.
The onshore winds will lead to slightly warmer temps with gradually increasing low level moisture through Sunday/Sun night.
Still under the influence of upper level low and and associated trough over the Appalachians. Before it leaves us, a piece of energy, currently over north central Illinois will slide south on the backside of the trough. A decent gradient will exist on the west and northwest side of the low and thus will have a lake wind advisory out for a good part of the CWA. Ridging will move into the area tonight and keep us dry through Sunday. A second upper level low will form/move into the desert southwest Sunday and will send pieces of energy up over the ridge which will be centered over the Plains states.
201 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 An upper level low over the eastern U.
Today, Upper ridge axis is forecast by models to slide to the east of Colorado. This will bring a little moisture and lift across the higher terrain during the afternoon with isolated to scattered convection developing, primarily along the Continental Divide.
1234 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Upper level high pressure ridge overhead passing slowly east. A low level jet on the order of 40 knots or so within a thousand feet of the ground is likely to shape up late this evening into early morning Sunday across both KLBB and KPVW, but surface flow should remain strong enough to keep the lower atmosphere mostly mixed. /issued 313 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ High amplitude ridge over New Mexico this morning will progress east across West Texas today bringing very warm temperatures and dry conditions. The ridge then shifts east on Sunday as West Texas begins to come under the influence of a deep closed low currently developing along the central coast of California and which will dig southward over northern Baja by late Sunday.
Most spots will remain dry today and highs will top out in the lower to middle 50s. Some patchy frost is likely early Sunday morning as temperatures dip into the lower to middle 30s. Unseasonably cool and somewhat breezy north-northwest flow will persist today on the backside of deep low pressure refocusing into the Eastern Great Lakes. Mainly dry otherwise today, though there could be a few isolated/diurnally driven showers pop up this afternoon into ne IN/nw OH given residual moisture in closer proximity to deep cyclone. Height rises/subsidence as Eastern Great Lakes cyclone begins its slow east-northeast exit will afford fair/cool wx and clear skies tonight. Full decoupling looking unlikely however with low level ridge axis positioned west of the local area.
604 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure over upstate New York will track north into Ontario Sunday. Weak high pressure will build into the area late Sunday, and remain through midweek. The cold front has crossed the forecast area. Within the upper trough axis, an area of showers is approaching the Bay. While the mid level thicknesses are cold enough to support snow, low level thicknesses aren't, and only the highest of the mountaintops will have lows in the mid 30s (with wind, so no frost). The trough axis at 500 mb swings through Sunday, with some positive vorticity advection as well, so it should be a fairly cloudy day once again. maybe a degree or two warmer since there will be less rain.
The highly amplified flow regime across North America will transition into a blocking pattern as a strong positive upper height anomaly retrogrades from Greenland to north-central Canada. Highs tomorrow will probably be a little cooler than today. Sunday Night Through Saturday The axis of the broad low pressure trough over the eastern U.
Nevertheless, they will still be several degrees degrees below normal in the lower to mid 50s.
An upper low and trough currently moving onto the Pacific northwest coast are bringing a southerly flow aloft across the forecast area. Most of the dynamics associated with this are and will remain near the trough axis across western Montana this afternoon into this evening. As the trough slowly moves east, it will bring a cold front across the forecast area mid evening for the western and central areas and after midnight for the eastern areas. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday with the exception of the far southeast areas of Montana.
It will clear out overnight with light winds as weak high pressure builds in through Sunday. High pressure will move away from the area Sunday night.
529 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Upper level analysis has broad but flat ridge across the western CONUS with fast zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extends from western Manitoba through west central South Dakota, around KPHP at 19Z. Better chances for convection will be overnight as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the forecast area pushing the cold front to the east. Cooler air will move into the area during the morning, with highs Thursday afternoon only in the 70s.
/issued 346 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/ A persisting upper high across the southwestern U.
For tonight, we will be watching a warm front lift out of IA and situate itself along between the I-90/94 corridors by 06z. A bit of a break in the action expected to last through mid-Thursday morning, but then with cold front sinking southward across the area and impinging moisture transport will re-fire convection by later in the morning through the afternoon.
Cindy will make her way nwd and then more newd as she is absorbed into the upper trof over the ern CONUS.
19Z surface observations showed that the boundary was in the process of working its way back north as a warm front early this afternoon with winds becoming southerly and increasing across the area. Surface front and trough have limited push and are expected to stall later tonight from northeast into southwest Nebraska. Have kept PoPs on the low side for most of the area tonight because of the limitations mentioned. Thursday looks to be dry for most of the area during the day before frontal boundary begins to accelerate southeast during the afternoon and evening as mid level trough moves into the northern plains.
808 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A 596 DM ridge of high pressure remains centered over the southwestern CONUS this Wednesday afternoon. Diurnally driven afternoon convection has once again developed over the higher terrain, aided by marginal mid-level moisture still lingering on the northern fringes of the ridge of high pressure. This increase in winds aloft will tend to aid/organize any thunderstorms that do form during the afternoon hours, and some dry lightning is again expected area-wide in the higher terrain.
Heat ridge over the Desert Southwest being knocked down by lows moving out of the Gulf of Alaska into south central Canada. %00mb wave over eastern Canada sending a shallow trough into the eastern CONUS. Even with southerly flow to the east dew points in the low 60s and this is keeping temperatures from torching out as in the drier air, with dew points in the 30s and 40s to the west southwest. Highs on Thursday with the cold front moving south will be in the 70s and 80s north to the low 90s southwest. Increasing chances of thunderstorms to the east in the morning and shifting south through the day with the cold front.
Chances for showers and storms will increase across the area through the day and evening on Thursday as the remnants of Cindy provide a stream of moisture rich air and some forcing to the area that will then interact with a cold front trying to progress across central Indiana.
In the predawn hours, the low level flow will begin veering in the gradient region from eastern AR/MS into southeast MO well to the east Cindy. The moisture/clouds should result in cooler temps on Thursday, especially the southern 2/3rd of the CWA.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: High pressure building across the region through the weekend will bring a drier pattern to South Florida.
Expect this to push into the area late this evening, and continue an easterly track overnight as an impulse rotating around an upper low located along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border continues its easterly path. A cold frontal passage this afternoon will be followed by another surge of cold air advection and gusty northwest winds Thursday. We continue to downplay the potential for surface-based storms in our area of responsibility this afternoon since the current pace of a southeast-moving pre-frontal trough and cold frontal boundary suggests they will be mostly east of the area by the time capping is sufficiently eroded for convective initiation.
The low level jet axis will persist across Iowa during the overnight with isolated to scattered convection persisting near the axis as it veers into the early morning.
902 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A weak cold front will stall out just south of Pennsylvania tonight, then return north as a warm front on Thursday.
On Thursday an upper level trough will begin to cross the Northern Plains and a surface cold front will drop south across northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. Ahead of this cold front it will be another day with highs ranging from 95 to 100 based on the 900mb to 850mb temperatures late day. Late day convection will once again be possible near a surface boundary that will be located in southwest Kansas and also with the cold front that will be located in west central and north central Kansas. A surface cold front will drop south across western Kansas Thursday night as an upper level trough crosses the Central and Northern Plains. Convection associated with the cold front will continue early but taper off from northwest to southeast after midnight.
The best chance of a shower will be in southern Indiana closer to a retreating warm front draped from Illinois to Ohio. Then late Thursday night, as Cindy's circulation moves into Arkansas, a cold front will approach from the northwest.
A deepening upper trough will be taking place over south-central Canada that will orient winds from the NW over the area. Some CAA will take place Thursday afternoon and will help to mix down the higher mid-level winds.
However, the greatest risk of tornadoes with landfalling tropical cyclones is usually on the right side of the center's track.
1209 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
A cold frontal passage this afternoon will be followed by another surge of cold air advection and gusty northwest winds Thursday. We continue to downplay the potential for surface-based storms in our area of responsibility this afternoon since the current pace of a southeast-moving pre-frontal trough and cold frontal boundary suggests they will be mostly east of the area by the time capping is sufficiently eroded for convective initiation.
The large upper ridge remains anchored over the Desert SW while Tropical Storm Cindy nears the NW Gulf Coast.
The subtropical ridge is pushing across the Florida Peninsula in the wake of Cindy.
Areas southeast of a West Plains to Eminence line have the highest chance of seeing some scattered showers and storms. This will likely keeps temps cooler than the past few days.
The most notable impact will be for the N/NE winds to bring lower dew points and thus a slightly cooler morning Thursday as was the case for this morning.
/issued 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/ Tropical Storm Cindy is currently positioned in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and will begin to make a increasingly northward turn overnight as it moves between a break in the subtropical ridge.
Latest upper air profile analysis shows our freezing heights slightly lower than at this time yesterday in-conjunction with MUCAPE values between 2500-3000 J/Kg. Our last day of well above average temperatures will be tomorrow as southerly flow and eastward extending upper level ridge into our region will bring very warm temperatures once again.
Weak convection today and associated cooling has kept the warm front from redeveloping north of the forecast area as originally expected. However, ridging will once again build into the area overnight and the delayed translation of the warm front into Wisconsin is likely to occur late tonight or Thursday morning as strong insolation should assist in mixing.
1002 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Thursday with dry and seasonably pleasant weather expected.
Additionally, cooler, but still quite warm, temperatures are expected along with scattered showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk of severe storms on Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. On the back side of the trough, the atmosphere is much drier with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase east of the surface through the afternoon as a weak mid level short wave in the nearly zonal flow moves east across the high plains this afternoon and out of the forecast area this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as a prefrontal trough moves into the area during the morning with a cold front expected to slide south across the forecast area between 18-00Z.
1056 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A weak cold front will stall out just south of Pennsylvania tonight, then return north as a warm front on Thursday.
Breezy conditions across portions of the Lower Columbia Basin and along the east slopes of the Cascades will continue to decrease especially after sunset. High pressure will reside over the region for the next several days providing summer conditions of warm and dry.
720 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A weak cold front will stall out just south of Pennsylvania tonight, then return north as a warm front on Thursday.
However, ridge aloft across the area and continued warmer than normal temps at 500mb around -5C will keep rain chances near to below normal. Ridge axis slowly builds southward, but remains just north of the area.
Cold front is still expected to push into northeast Colorado on Thursday morning with somewhat cooler temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day. For Thursday, upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will sink south as a trough moves over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will south push in northern Colorado early Thursday morning. This cold front is expected to track across the Denver area 9-10am. Gusty northeast winds behind the front will usher in moisture and cooler air. Precipitable water values climb to around an inch across much of the lower elevations by late Thursday afternoon. Highs will be cooler Thursday with most locations topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Southern areas may be a little warmer and approach 90 degrees.