Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
One short wave trough exiting the area early this morning with another more significant one for tonight. Mid and high level clouds will be spreading in through today in advance of the next short wave trough. The models were showing good low and mid level waa along with upper divergence with tonight's short wave trough along with qpf mainly across the northern cwa.
234 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2020 A weakening cold front will push through the region today. Near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
502 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 A cold front continues to slide across the region early this morning and will exit our far east by 12Z. It still appears that the better lift will be located north of our CWA, so the better snow chances will exist along the Highway 14 corridor with up to a half an inch of accumulation possible into Wednesday morning. Some light precipitation may also develop in our far east later in the night, and with saturation issues, would most likely be in the form of freezing drizzle if it develops.
351 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 A cold front continues to slide across the region early this morning and will exit our far east by 12Z. It still appears that the better lift will be located north of our CWA, so the better snow chances will exist along the Highway 14 corridor with up to a half an inch of accumulation possible into Wednesday morning. Some light precipitation may also develop in our far east later in the night, and with saturation issues, would most likely be in the form of freezing drizzle if it develops.
Other minor tweaks made to the high temperatures for this afternoon.
Temperatures this afternoon have soared into the mid 70s for most locations due to breaks in the cloud cover and as the surface warm front continues to slowly move northward. Some patchy drizzle or light showers may be possible overnight as the low level jet ramps up. A cold front will approach the region from the north Wednesday night, bringing chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the region.
119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 An upper ridge over the Gulf will build northward across the region as a trough swings across the Northern Plains early Wednesday.
A persistent warm front is now north of the area. High pressure at the surface and mid level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will support above normal temperatures through the period.
For tonight high pressure at the surface across the Ohio valley will move east while veering low level winds to the south and east. A weak cold front will approach the area on Wednesday with an increase in low level convergence to support these higher chances of SHRA. Temperatures on Wednesday will continue to be above normal with highs in the lower 60s to near 70.
1018 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Partly to mostly sunny and warm conditions prevail across the Florida Keys on this Tuesday morning, with radars showing isolated light showers and sprinkles decreasing over and west of the Lower Keys. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near Bermuda, with a ridge axis extending westward across the Florida peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery depicts a strong deep layered ridge over the western Atlantic, Bahamas and South Florida. Expect high temperatures to climb into the lower 80s once again, as has been the case for the past few days. Meanwhile, winds across the cooler Bay and Gulf side waters are running much lower, generally in the 10 to 15 knot range.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and winds on land are from the E to SE at 10 to 20 mph, with the strongest winds in the Lower Keys. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near Bermuda, with a ridge axis extending westward across the Florida peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery depicts a strong deep layered ridge over the western Atlantic, Bahamas and South Florida. Slightly drier air has filtered in at the surface as well, with dewpoints dropping from the lower 70s this morning to the mid-upper 60s this afternoon. The strong ridge aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Keys through the next few days.
939 AM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Updated forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning this morning. WYDOT observations have indicated a general increase in winds over the last couple of hours, with the Arlington and Halleck Ridge sensors reporting wind gusts of 45-55 MPH as of 09-10z. A quick shot of 3-6 inches indeed appears likely, but given the progressive pattern it will be quite hard to get over 6 inches of snow outside of the high peaks. This will be heavily dependent on southern and western extent of the surface cold front, which will influence gradients & wind profiles.
Mostly clear skies across the forecast area overnight, with stronger west to southwest winds lurking up across the higher terrain. The main concern, however, will be the very tight pressure gradient and strong gusty winds forecast to develop across the lower elevations by midday. The highest gusts are anticipated across the southern tier near the New Mexico state line. Look for highs in the 30s to lower 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.
/Today through Wednesday/ The warm front has lifted Northward since yesterday and is now more or less stationary over deep E TX, NW LA and SE AR. Air temps will keep to the 60s North of the warm front and lower 70s to it's South. We will see pops ramping up again during Wednesday as the next cold front moves into the region. We will see warmer low to mid 70s during Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold front.
145 PM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Zonal flow today will be replaced by an upper ridge on Wednesday. Surface pattern is rather messy, with a weakening trough just east of the area, with low clouds and fog ahead of it, and a cold front in western Nebraska. As mentioned, for Wednesday will see rising heights as upper ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front with highs in the middle to upper 40s.
Warm front is still expected to lift northeast and allow for fairly significant warming for parts of northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD. Current surface map shows arctic front backed into eastern Wyoming with high pressure slipping into the Dakotas. Area of low pressure develops across eastern Wyoming this afternoon, with warm front lifting into southwest South Dakota.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 71 49 58 38 / 60 80 80 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 68 46 56 34 / 50 90 90 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 55 68 44 54 33 / 50 90 90 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 66 44 52 29 / 40 90 90 10 0.
However, a cold front will move through the TAF sites late Wednesday morning shifting light winds to the north. Late tomorrow morning a weak cold front will drop through the FA knocking high temperatures down 10 degrees from today.
Pretty good warm push in the lower levels ahead of the next low with temperatures from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 60 71 49 58 / 100 60 80 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 56 68 46 56 / 100 50 90 90 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 55 68 44 54 / 100 50 90 90 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 51 66 44 52 / 90 40 90 90 10.
1030 AM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Updated forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning this morning. WYDOT observations have indicated a general increase in winds over the last couple of hours, with the Arlington and Halleck Ridge sensors reporting wind gusts of 45-55 MPH as of 09-10z. A quick shot of 3-6 inches indeed appears likely, but given the progressive pattern it will be quite hard to get over 6 inches of snow outside of the high peaks. This will be heavily dependent on southern and western extent of the surface cold front, which will influence gradients & wind profiles.
precip will mainly be in the form of freezing drizzle with some light snow initially north, changing over to freezing drizzle as we lose the ice introduction.
Upstream, another impulse can be seen on satellite in central Oregon, associated with the main upper trough axis.
/Issued 450 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/ For today, a sfc trof of low pressure will persist across eastern CO and eastern NM. A cold front is forecast to move across the region on Wednesday, with the brunt of the cold air slated to remain northeast of the forecast area.
112 PM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Water vapor shows persistent upper trof over the western CONUS with next upstream short wave over western WY early this afternoon. Tonight, upper trof pushes into the northern plains, allowing the arctic boundary to surge back southward.
For southern areas, temperatures similar to today can be expected after the low clouds clear, with highs mainly in the mid 70s. A cold front will move south into the Big Country region, resulting in cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s. There is also a slight chance for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line during the afternoon hours as the cold front approaches.
Light to moderate snow is produced by continued troughing over the area on Thu night and Fri, and this may need Advisory- level highlights. The clearing skies Fri night once a cold front passes through will bring back the arctic air and cold temperatures for Fri night. It is a weak and shallow winter storm that currently looks like it will do little at the lower elevations like the Snake River plain, and will have a slightly more northerly track than previous storms. This storm exits Sun morning, and upper level ridging centered just to the west moves in to return sunshine and warming temperatures.
There is nothing terribly chilly about the cold air that will move in behind the front as the bulk of the cold air will stay nearer the parent upper trough as it moves to the Great Lakes.
A persistent stratus layer continues to bring MVFR to IFR conditions across all TAF sites with the lowest conditions currently being reported at KMLC as of 1750Z. A cold front moves through Oklahoma and western Arkansas by the end of the period.
The low clouds and fog are expected to continue well after sunrise into the mid to late morning hours as they did today.
-Mottice Very cold arctic air will linger across the region through midweek with high pressure over the northern plains. Warmer air will be slowly drawn northward but will take some time to overcome the cold air pooled over northeast Montana.
Its progression through the day should clear the low clouds and fog earlier than today.
309 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Risk for wintry mix Wed Aftn/Eve - Lakeshore flooding possible Wed Night/Thu and the weekend - Impactful storm possible Fri Night into Sat Night - Risk for wintry mix Wed Aftn/Eve A wave of low pressure tracks in from the west during this time. Guidance is showing temperatures climbing to above freezing values along and south of Interstate 96 by the time the light precipitation moves in. it looks like a window for perhaps some freezing drizzle/rain could develop.
1104 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 A cold front continues to slide across the region early this morning and will exit our far east by 12Z. It still appears that the better lift will be located north of our CWA, so the better snow chances will exist along the Highway 14 corridor with up to a half an inch of accumulation possible into Wednesday morning. Some light precipitation may also develop in our far east later in the night, and with saturation issues, would most likely be in the form of freezing drizzle if it develops.
237 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Skies became partly cloudy this afternoon and will stay that way into the evening hours before a new area of cloudiness, along with widely scattered light rain showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, moves in ahead of a warm front approaching from the south tonight. The warm front will move through and north of the region Wednesday morning, followed by a cold front sweeping in from the west by evening as its parent low advances from Kansas City to Detroit.
The cold front moving in late evening and overnight will push any fog east of the area by 09Z and stratus soon to follow.
This boundary will also bring a chance of rain across parts of the area, with a the possibility of some freezing in the extreme north parts of the forecast area. In the extreme north, where temps will remain below freezing longer, some of the rain will be freezing rain.
In the meantime, an area of low pressure will move out of Colorado and into southern Kansas tonight. Lift will increase ahead of the low and CAMS are showing light QPF developing mainly north of I-70 this evening. Locations near the Nebraska border are more likely to see freezing drizzle which could lead to some slick spots on roadways late this evening and tonight. Daytime warming will be limited to just a few degrees during the afternoon as the cooler airmass settles over the area tomorrow. The combination of cooler temps and breezy winds will create wind chills in the 20s and 30s through the day.
A cold front will move south into the Big Country on Wednesday afternoon, reaching KABI by 4 PM. For southern areas, temperatures similar to today can be expected after the low clouds clear, with highs mainly in the mid 70s. A cold front will move south into the Big Country region, resulting in cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s. There is also a slight chance for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line during the afternoon hours as the cold front approaches.
436 PM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Water vapor shows persistent upper trof over the western CONUS with next upstream short wave over western WY early this afternoon. Tonight, upper trof pushes into the northern plains, allowing the arctic boundary to surge back southward.
Similar to the past few nights, we'll likely see fog develop first along our coastal regions where the cooler shelf waters and interaction of warm/moist southerly flow kick start the production of fog.
A modest cold front will push southward through the area Wednesday. There is nothing terribly chilly about the cold air that will move in behind the front as the bulk of the cold air will stay nearer the parent upper trough as it moves to the Great Lakes.
This trough will move eastward tonight and the southern extent will clip the northern half of the forecast area. The models have trended somewhat weaker with this trough and as a result snow amounts have decreased. Pre- trough winds out of the southwest have been rather gusty in the higher terrain so expect that to continue into the late evening. The Park range could see upwards of 5-7 inches in the highest elevations.
Skies became partly cloudy this afternoon and will stay that way into the evening hours before a new area of cloudiness, along with widely scattered light rain showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, moves in ahead of a warm front approaching from the south tonight. The warm front will move through and north of the region Wednesday morning, followed by a cold front sweeping in from the west by evening as its parent low advances from Kansas City to Detroit.
Meanwhile, a warm front, currently analyzed south of a line from Tupelo to Cleveland, Mississippi, will continue to slowly lift north over the next 12 hours or so.
Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area on Wednesday morning with gusty northerly winds expected behind the front.
Warm front north of the region, coupled with a disturbance aloft, is keeping elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms over Central Louisiana and Southeast Texas, mainly north of I-10.
The models continue to advertise a decent pv anomaly moving out of the High Plains, and across the Dakotas.
The HiRes guidance, EC and CMC are most suggestive, as a warm front lifts north into the area. The chance of showers will continue Wednesday as low pressure moves across Missouri to the Ohio Valley, allowing a front to push southeast of our area by afternoon.
Across northwest Montana, a broad area of low pressure continues to draw shallow arctic air through Badrock Canyon and into the Flathead Valley. A drying and slight warming trend is expected Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds across the Northern Rockies.
Main change to the forecast for this afternoon is lowering high temperatures slightly to the east of the boundary where temperatures have remained a little cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 40s. As the cold front moves through the area, fog and low stratus chances will dissipate. Wednesday, zonal flow will set up over the Tri-State area with an upper level trough moving over the Pacific toward the Northwest. Temperatures for the region will be a little cooler than today, with highs in the 40s.
Warm front as of 3 PM was plodding north and finally departing our area ahead of very mild temps in the 80s to near 90 in some locales. Barring a rogue shower or storm this afternoon along an instability axis spanning the Coastal Plains, the forecast remains dry through Wednesday as forcing will be in short supply under an extension of subtropical ridging. On Wednesday, low level flow backs more southeasterly all the while a cold front stalls out from the Permian Basin to North TX. Continued ridging aloft should keep us very warm and quiet, but by Wednesday night deeper saturation focuses from the Brush Country on west courtesy of a minor trough and stronger isentropic ascent.
Expect low stratus the remainder of the night and into tomorrow morning, with improving conditions by late morning/early afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Fort Smith got a bit warmer than yesterday, in the low 50s, but clouds will fill back in tonight. There could be some patchy fog overnight, but low clouds will be widespread again, which should keep lows a bit warmer in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
845 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 No sig change in the current WX pattern as an H100-H70 high pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the nrn GOMex maintains a light southerly sfc/bndry lyr flow over central FL. Light/variable sfc/bndry lyr winds with the ridge axis overhead coupled with clearing skies will allow areas of fog to dvlp over the interior, especially along and north of the I-4 Corridor.
522 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 Concern for impactful freezing drizzle has increased and is supported by the latest 18Z NAM and recent HRRR model runs. This layer is below freezing, but not cold enough for ice crystals and is of sufficient depth to produce freezing drizzle. Therefore, we expect the stratus deck to quickly expand north across the area this evening, thicken, and produce some freezing drizzle in eastern areas. Have added a little drizzle/freezing drizzle for this evening. The fog will linger into the overnight hours, but a cold front is expected to move into the area during the night. Skies will clear out behind the cold front.
This fog is occurring just north of the warm front located near the Tennessee/Alabama border. With the warm front gradually shifting northward through the night and temperatures/dewpoints slowly rising, this area of fog will likely also shift northward but become less dense with time - so not planning on an advisory attm. A pesky warm front remains situated to our immediate south, keeping high dew points and a moist boundary layer in place, especially in areas south of I-40 nearest the front.
Wednesday morning will be dry but a warm front ahead of the next Pacific storm will move across eastern Oregon Wednesday afternoon and western Idaho Wednesday evening, with more snow mainly in northern areas.
Temperatures today struggled to reach the freezing mark, with only locations along and south of Interstate 80 managing the feat. The main concern over the next 24 hours is the potential for freezing drizzle this evening and overnight, as a shallow moist layer lifts north out of Kansas. Freezing drizzle could begin as soon as 7 PM along the KS/NE border, then it should spread north into Lincoln and Omaha through 10 PM, before exiting the region around 4 AM. Confidence in freezing drizzle is moderate to high with a trace to 0. A cold front should surge through the region early Wednesday morning. This will put an end to any lingering fog, low clouds or freezing drizzle. Temperatures Wednesday should struggle to get above freezing for much of the region.
This will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures throughout the short-term period, with afternoon highs on Wednesday reaching into the low to mid-70s, and overnight lows reaching into the mid to upper-50s. By tonight, winds will decouple and the stationary front (now warm front) will not allow for them to rebound. As such, patchy fog will be possible into Wednesday morning, especially along and south of I-20 where winds will be the lightest in correlation with some of the highest airmass moisture values. While the highest storm total QPF values for all this precip will stay below half an inch in localized areas, locally heavy rainfall may allow for larger portions of the forecast area to see values similar to these.
Fort Smith got a bit warmer than yesterday, in the low 50s, but clouds will fill back in tonight. There could be some patchy fog overnight, but low clouds will be widespread again, which should keep lows a bit warmer in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
This boundary will also bring a chance of rain across parts of the area, with a the possibility of some freezing in the extreme north parts of the CWA. In the extreme north, where temps will remain below freezing longer, some of the rain will be freezing rain.
The HRRR/RAP and ARW/NMM both develop widespread low visibility rapidly again across the are tonight as the boundary lifts north as a warm front. Beyond the fog issues which should be alleviated before sunrise with the incoming northwest winds overnight, the models are also showing a wide variety of solutions for mins as stratus could hold temps warmer in the south central kansas lower plains region , opposed to colder lows around Syracuse where full radiative cooling can be going on all night.
Near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
As 60F dewpoints creep into southern Tennessee south of the warm front, some patchy fog may develop, although widespread dense fog appears unlikely at this time. By late afternoon, an advancing cold front will enter from the northwest, and quickly clear the area to the southeast during the evening.
/issued 119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/ An upper ridge over the Gulf will build northward across the region as a trough swings across the Northern Plains early Wednesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 72 49 58 / 70 70 50 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 69 47 56 / 60 60 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 69 44 54 / 60 50 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 66 44 52 / 30 60 60 0.
Have added a little drizzle/freezing drizzle for this evening. The fog will linger into the overnight hours, but a cold front is expected to move into the area during the night. Skies will clear out behind the cold front.
705 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Latest RAP model shows deep layer ridging from west to east residing across the area into Wed. High pressure across the waters will keep winds in the 5 to 10 knots for the next couple of day with a sea breeze component in the afternoons near the coast. High pressure behind a front near the end of the week will increase winds and seas.
1035 PM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Water vapor shows persistent upper trof over the western CONUS with next upstream short wave over western WY early this afternoon. Tonight, upper trof pushes into the northern plains, allowing the arctic boundary to surge back southward.
an advisory was issued for the aforementioned area and is valid until 10AM when the 850mb ridge axis shifts east and low level mixing increases. Some ice could deposit on elevated surfaces with a couple pockets of subfreezing and saturated sfc conditions as well. but all roadway sensors are reporting ground/road temperatures at least several degrees above freezing at this time. so bridges and overpasses would be the primary concern there.