Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
440 AM MST Fri Feb 9 2018 Surface cold front already through northeast Colorado as of 11z, and will continue to ooze westward through the southeast plains this morning as high pressure drops into the nrn plains. Overnight, cold air and upslope flow deepen on the plains, leading to some flurries or very light freezing drizzle along and east of the mountains, though any icing looks to be minor as precip amounts will be minimal.
Active southern jet will help bring moisture across the forecast area and over-riding a coastal trough.
This showers are associated with a cold front boundary that is becoming stationary near the Lake area. 5", rotating around the base of the ridge and into South Florida which is already generating a few showers over the local Atlantic and along the east coast as it moves NW.
236 AM PST Fri Feb 9 2018 Cooler weather and more coastal clouds are on the way this weekend as high pressure weakens.
As a cold front drops into Wyoming the pressure gradient will increase over northwest and central CO and northeast UT causing surface winds to increase this afternoon and evening. By sunrise Saturday the cold front will be entering NW CO and NE UT and move quickly south through the day. Accumulations by late Saturday night should barely reach advisory criteria at only the highest elevations.
404 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 A broad trough continues to affect much of the central/east CONUS this morning with a strong cut-off cyclone spinning over the southern Baja Peninsula. Two plumes of moisture are approaching the Mid-South this morning - one from the west along the polar jet with additional upper-level subtropical moisture downstream of the Baja cyclone advecting northeast across south TX. Finally, a cold front will into the northwest portion of the CWA early Saturday morning, moving slowly south slowly throughout the day. Expect rainfall totals between 1-3 inches across much of the area, with the lowest amounts likely confined to northeast AR and the MO Bootheel.
705 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast today. A warm front will lift north through the region tonight and Saturday.
424 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Early morning surface analysis places cold front across northern Missouri through central portions of Kansas. Drizzle may begin late this evening across far northeast Oklahoma, transitioning to freezing drizzle after midnight. By early Saturday morning, the freezing line will extend from far northwest Arkansas southwest to near Okemah. Given the dry air aloft noted on forecast soundings, the main precipitation type will be drizzle/rain or freezing drizzle, dependent on the surface temperature, which will be falling through the day on Saturday.
Then an Arctic cold front moves into the northern Big Country around 09Z and reach Abilene by 12Z with gusty north winds.
249 AM PST Fri Feb 9 2018 An unsettled weather pattern will begin tomorrow as the first system passes across the region dragging a cold front through the area on Saturday. Gusty, north winds and cooler temperatures can be expected.
If the temperature can rise a degree or two warmer than forecast, then cloud bases may temporarily jump to VFR.
Snow will continue to fall off and on over our southwest counties, with an additional 1-2in possible mainly southwest of PIR thanks to the boost of another trough moving through the steady 500mb trough that has been a steady feature of late. Otherwise, the main story this period will be high pressure and clearing trying to build into our northeastern counties.
One more very warm day is in store today as the ridge of high pressure that has brought us this prolonged weather pattern remains over the area. The ridge is expected to retrograde over the Pacific over this weekend and allow a series of upper-level impulses to pass over the Great Basin.
A shallow Arctic cold front will move south across the area today with temperatures plummeting in its wake.
At 0900 UTC, the arctic cold front had reached I-70, and will continue to push south rather quickly, sweeping across all of southwest KS by shortly after daybreak. Low level flow this evening will veer around to a northeasterly direction, and there is some indication of enough shallow-layer lift across far west-central KS to support some patchy, very light freezing drizzle or snow flurries. Some of the most recent indications, though, are indicating a slight reversal back to a drier solution with 0000 UTC ECMWF run indicating the lightest QPF due to a quicker shearing out of the mid level system and quicker southward movement of the 700mb cold front.
A mid level warm front will be the catalyst for lift, and expect showers to spread south to north through the day. A broad upper-level trough is stretched through much of the Central and Southwest US as a cold front slowly slides southeastward through the Midwest and Ozarks.
Rain will become much more widespread during the day Saturday as a stronger upper trough dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest towards the Southern Plains. This will help push the cold front into the forecast area by early Saturday afternoon. The progress of the front should slow somewhat as the flow aloft becomes southwesterly ahead of the upper trough.
Periods of a gusty wind will continue as a cold front approaches the area. The cold front will move through the area through early Saturday, resulting in cooler temperatures both days. Moisture remains fairly limited with this system, with showers remaining confined the the higher elevations of the West Central Mountains of Idaho and into the higher elevations of Baker County in Oregon on Friday.
1054 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A warm southerly flow takes hold today, as high pressure exits. High pressure exits this period.
On Saturday, gusty southwest winds return as a cold front approaches our state.
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea today as an inverted trough approaches the Ohio Valley. Southerly winds will bring a much warmer day today. The location of the cold front Saturday morning will be the difference in highs for that day. The slow-moving front will start to make some progress eastward, as low pressure moves along the boundary into Eastern Kentucky late Saturday night.
Quasi-stationary front begins to move northward as a weak warm front over the central Gulf Coast. 3 inches could help promote light showers associated with the warm front by mid morning into the afternoon.
System associated with a RRQ region of an upper jet and a 850 mb trough tracking along the west to east baroclinic zone stretching from northern Iowa to the Wisconsin Illinois border. Cold high pressure over the Northern Plains will then build into the western Great Lakes Region later today into Saturday for continued below normal temperatures.
High pressure north of the region will allow for an easterly flow throughout the day. As we move into Saturday, more of the same essentially although winds will become more southeasterly as high pressure shifts a bit. An upper air pattern featuring troughing across the lower Mississippi Valley and southwesterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico will become increasingly ridgy with time.
Still, plenty of sunshine/heating will exist for highs to reach the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast and into the low 80s over the interior. High pressure will move offshore the U.
Otherwise, breezy conditions expected tomorrow morning which should help keep visibilities in VFR due to mixing in the lower levels.
as latest HRRR/radar/ob trends more aggressive with warmer temps/drier air reaching these counties by mid morning. Baroclinic zone will remain active into this weekend as several more upper waves round the base of a larger scale trough over the Central US.
Sfc flow will back at KMAF, KHOB, and KINK as a cold front eases into the area. /issued 320 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ In the upper levels there is a broad trough across the center of the country with a ridge extending in from the CA Coast.
At the leading edge there are lower clouds that will produce areas of dense fog and freezing drizzle in the upslope areas including Denver. This seems like an abject failure to deal with the low level stability; though there will remain strong west winds above the cold layer there is an equally strong push of east winds at the surface. In fact we may trend toward a Denver cyclone circulation as the winds go more southeast on the plains later this afternoon. A second front associated with the upstream trough will put an end to the controversy this evening. This should produce some freezing drizzle in the evening, changing to snow as the moist layer deepens and precipitating clouds aloft also move in. It decreases the rest of the day as an upper trough moves across Colorado Saturday night.
/issued 404 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ A broad trough continues to affect much of the central/east CONUS this morning with a strong cut-off cyclone spinning over the southern Baja Peninsula. Two plumes of moisture are approaching the Mid-South this morning - one from the west along the polar jet with additional upper-level subtropical moisture downstream of the Baja cyclone advecting northeast across south TX. Finally, a cold front will into the northwest portion of the CWA early Saturday morning, moving slowly south slowly throughout the day. Expect rainfall totals between 1-3 inches across much of the area, with the lowest amounts likely confined to northeast AR and the MO Bootheel.
421 AM MST Fri Feb 9 2018 Broad upper trough remains across the region with the upper jet over the northern Rockies through Wyoming into Nebraska. Arctic frontal boundary has pushed south of the CWA early this morning with high pressure building in.
617 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A warm southerly flow takes hold today, as high pressure exits. High pressure exits this period.
258 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 As an upper trough makes its way across the middle Mississippi Valley today, an area of high pressure is slowly building into mid-America from the northwest and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. Lingering cloud cover is expected to clear overnight tonight from west to east across the area, allowing temperatures to radiate down into the low 20s by early Monday morning.
A short wave trough/weak closed low continued to drop southeast toward northeast KS this morning. First closed low will move away from the area this morning, with precipitation coverage decreasing. However some light freezing drizzle/flurries/sprinkles could linger longer than that as the second but much weaker closed low moves down into western IA. Surface pattern currently features an inverted trough from MO back north/northwest into our area but that will weaken/dissipate as high pressure over the Dakotas builds southeast.
Highs will be in the lower to middle 40s. Central Illinois will remain under the influence of a prevailing upper trough centered over eastern Canada through midweek.
Temperatures across the area as of 1 am were in the middle 20s to the lower 30s. This is expected to drag that deformation forced light snow southeast out of the area by 9 am or so, leaving the area under general mid-level cyclonic flow with very weak high pressure at the surface. Soundings and lower level model relative humidity field indicate the area will be under mostly cloudy conditions with highs today in the middle 30s to the lower 40s. A weak cold front pushes through the area this evening/overnight with a cooling damp lower boundary layer. Shouldn't see much in the way of fog either with gradient winds keeping the lower boundary layer stirred enough.
/issued 611 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will be south of the I-10 corridor and southern terminals by 14Z. /issued 507 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will be south of our area by this morning. Behind the front, expect much cooler temperatures this afternoon and winds gusting from the north at 30 to 35 mph.
An upper ridge will strengthen over the region tonight for mainly clear skies.
233 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure over the area will allow for partly cloudy skies tonight.
341 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 High pressure will continue to provide fair and dry weather for the region through Monday.
/issued 946 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ Changes to the forecast this morning as low topped thunderstorms form ahead of descending upper low. Later as the low swings towards western Kentucky wrap around moisture in the dendritic zone coupled with CAA on the surface will lead to rain a rain and snow mix early this evening. /issued 349 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ Early morning GOES East water vapor imagery showed an upper low centered between Omaha and Kansas City. This low will track southeast across MO today, reaching western KY by midevening and middle TN by early overnight. Moisture remains limited in the -12C to -18C dendritic layer and surface temps during this period should prevail at or above freezing.
A cold front will move into the TN Valley this evening bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cooler air will filter in as the precip is exiting the forecast area allowing for a brief window of rain/snow mix in the northern zones and higher elevations ~11-15Z when there is better cooling aloft. 5") are possible for the higher elevations. This will keep daytime highs a little cooler, only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s.
looks like an interesting time coming up winter weather wise late today and especially overnight as a well defined mid/upper low passes just southeast of the forecast area. However, questionable liquid/snow relations, relatively warm soil temps and surface temps at or just above freezing, make accumulation forecast and impacts difficult to assess with very high confidence at this time. Believe most of the significant precip will cut off between midnight and 3 AM as the upper low moves off and we lose our ice nucleation in the -12 to -20 dendritic growth zone.
Conditions will improve by this evening as surface ridging builds south and winds subside.
1240 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Very limited mid level moisture moving over the upper level high pressure ridge will bring some very spotty light snow to the higher mountains tonight and Monday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The cold front continues to drop southward across the ranchlands, and should be through the entire area no later than 5pm. Some clearing is possible Monday night, allowing temperatures to again cool into the lower 50s.
Cold front is progressing into southern Louisiana and will continue to move offshore later today. Otherwise, dry and cooler weather is forecasted for Monday as ridge of high pressure settles over the Southern Plains. No freezing conditions are forecasted but frost could occur in the normally colder locations.
217 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Low pressure over Newfoundland this morning will continue to shift east into the Canadian maritimes today with mountain snow showers continuing through mid-day before tapering off.
125 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Dry weather continues today under high pressure.
There remains potential of the eastward passage of lingering showers over the local area this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Frontal passage occurs this evening, bringing a more established northwest flow, lowering deep layer thickness values and resultant cooler overnight lows in its wake.
218 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Upper level ridge axis over the state will shift east tonight and Monday.
/issued 307 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The cold front continues to drop southward across the ranchlands, and should be through the entire area no later than 5pm. Some clearing is possible Monday night, allowing temperatures to again cool into the lower 50s.
Strong 110kt H25 jet continues to slowly dig south across the region with a potent mid level s/w trough advecting east across S TX. Cold front is pushing through South Texas this afternoon with gusty winds developing area wide. Cold front is currently near the coast, however driest air still lingering back north of San Antonio where dpts are in the 30s at this time. Expect temps a few degrees cooler Monday night with less cloud cover.
1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 As of 1230 PM a surface cold front extends along the immediate Gulf Coast, which has resulted in winds shifting to the N/NE at all TAF sites.
248 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 The low level ridge is south of Cuba, lending to gently veering southwesterlies on the KBYX VWP. Surface winds range from 5 to 13 knots, with winds a little stronger adjacent to the Upper Keys as the gradient tightens near the South Florida thermal trough. Temperatures range from 80 to 86 with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Flight conditions will continue to improve this afternoon from NW to SE, with MVFR cigs along and S of the I-20 corridor of E TX as well as much of N LA/Scntrl AR expected to gradually become VFR with the cigs scattering out in response to a deeper wedge of drier air advecting S in wake of a cold front that has shifted into SE TX/S LA. However, AC and cirrus cigs will also linger this afternoon areawide before gradually thinning late this afternoon through the evening as an upper trough axis dives SE into the region.
310 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Inverted trough axis very slowly working through the area today, with the entire forecast area socked in under overcast stratus and many locations along the actual boundary still seeing widespread fog. High pressure will continue settling into the Dakotas this evening, becoming stationary and keeping our area dry and under northwest flow through the period. With the upper trough over the Great Lakes tomorrow, cyclonically curved flow and a negative cu rule point toward redevelopment of stratocu late morning through the afternoon in western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.
Elsewhere, generally dry conditions in combination with cooler temperatures and basically low grade winds should be noted into tonight.
/issued 1102 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ Cooler today with gusty north winds. Afternoon highs are expected to be 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Gusty north winds behind a cold front will likely continue through much of the day before diminishing around sunset. Cold front moving across the area this morning will bring in cooler temperatures as well as gusty north winds. Cooler weather will continue into the early part of the upcoming week as a couple of Canadian airmasses will slide south through the Plains.
Upstream, an amplified upper-level ridge was seen extending from the Southwest US into Alberta and another disturbance was moving eastward across OR. Elsewhere, modest height rises will spread across the Northern and Central Plains as the mid-level ridge builds across the Rockies-Northern High Plains today. Otherwise, cooler conditions will prevail today compared to yesterday under generally neutral to weak cold air advection at low-levels.
252 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 The upper level trof that was affecting the forecast area today was moving out of northwest Wisconsin as of 19Z/2pm. One more piece of vorticity was already beginning to affect northeast Minnesota as a longer wave trof in Ontario was nearby. At the surface, a couple of weak surface trofs were affecting the region. They were working in concert with the upper level trof to generate some flurries over the Arrowhead. Cannot rule out some very light snow amounts over the higher terrain over Iron county and have a mention.
1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 The frustrating system that brought periods of freezing rain and locally moderate to heavy snow continues to pull away from the region. Main upper level low will spin south into KS/MO thru the rest of the morning with some lingering light snow possible over NW Iowa for the next couple of hours. As the ice growth zone dries out, could see some patchy freezing drizzle develop thru the morning hours in areas along and east of I-29.
Cold front is pushing through South Texas this afternoon with gusty winds developing area wide. Cold front is currently near the coast, however driest air still lingering back north of San Antonio where dpts are in the 30s at this time. Expect temps a few degrees cooler Monday night with less cloud cover.
338 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Cool surface ridging continued to wedge itself southward over the region this afternoon, with progressive drying aloft as noted by the loss of mid-level clouds across much of our northern zones.
246 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 /Through Tonight/ In wake of this morning's cold front, gusty north winds of 20-35 mph have prevailed area-wide today. Clouds will have mostly cleared the area by morning, but temperatures will only climb into the lower 60s by afternoon. Some outlying colder spots may drop to near freezing.
216 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018 The upper level pattern over CONUS & Canada is an amplified ridge over the West and a large trough over the East, anchored at Hudson Bay. The main effect from any clouds that might develop is to prevent the formation of freezing fog there tonight. The ridge fully reestablishes itself Monday as the embedded disturbance moves out of the region. But with the ridge axis to our west, and continued northerly flow aloft, and the deep snow- pack, temperatures will struggle to reach normal until mid-week.
Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s today.
/issued 440 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018/ An upper trough is passing over the Central Plains which has resulted in a cold front that is pushing through the CWA this morning. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday behind the front with highs mostly in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures tonight will be quite a bit cooler with locations across southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin reaching freezing or below.
613 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Low pressure system passes south tonight into Monday.
Existing surface/pavement temps well above freezing and combined with wet ground chewing away at any accum potential in the near term. Mostly cloudy skies likely to linger for much of the area this afternoon and because of this I have stayed toward the cooler side of the guidance on highs with mainly upper 30s to lower 40s. Models are still in good agreement with an overall pattern of high pressure sliding across central NE.
The RAP shows a few showers picking up towards evening as the upper level trough moves over the region bringing some dynamic lift to aid in precipitation. Alas, this trough has almost no moisture to work with so maybe a few showers for the Flat Tops and northern/central mountains.
High pressure aloft will provide above normal temperatures Monday through midweek.
151 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the central plains and another over northern Manitoba and Ontario. The trough over central Canada will move south and affect the upper Great Lakes tonight and the lower Great Lakes on Mon.
The ridge of high pressure will be breaking down as the next system approaches the region on Monday.
336 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Low pressure system passes south tonight into Monday.
139 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Water vapor imagery depicted an approaching upper level low just northwest of Kansas City, moving southeast. Challenging forecast for Central Missouri today as the upper low approaches this morning. Freezing levels get down to about 400-500 feet with surface temps remaining near 34-35 therefore any accumulation would occur on grassy and elevated surfaces and likely would not last long given warm ground temps.