Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers still lingering over our east-southeast, but satellite shows easterly progression of this activity as trough shifts east and ridge builds in from the west. Upper level low bringing an area of light rain to west central MN will quickly exit to the east this morning with rainfall amounts generally two tenths of an inch or less. 00Z Wed - 12Z Thu Mid level thermal ridge moves east of the area Wed night. Thu - Sun Long wave ridge from the Northern Plains to the Desert Southwest will build through the period. Ridge building will temper after Sat as short waves will move over the ridge.
The upper low that will effect the area the rest of this week is moving southward along the British Columbia coast and will stall along the WA/OR coast tomorrow.
314 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 An upper trough is now exiting the region, with a more zonal flow pattern setting up. Large scale ridging develops as the week progresses, and will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. This will bring considerable changes to the overall weather pattern, with dry and warmer conditions expected.
230 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 As expected, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the heat of the afternoon, coinciding with an upper level trough to our north. The forcing associated with this trough has been enough to warrant this afternoon's severe thunderstorm watch, as well as a couple of warnings that have already verified with trees down in Smith County.
Temperatures warm slightly compared to Monday, with highs right around seasonal averages, which are in the low 80s this time of year.
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 At 3 PM, it was a beautiful afternoon with just a couple fair weather cumulus in the wake of a departing upper trough. A subtle upper trough will push a very weak cold front into eastern Nebraska tonight. The weak cold front should become stationary over the region Tuesday, and combine with any outflow boundaries from overnight/morning convection to be the focus for thunderstorm activity along or south of Interstate 80 Tuesday Afternoon.
One more day under a flat ridge of high pressure with warm dry conditions and then we transition into a convective stormy period through the rest of the week.
We may also see a thunderstorm it appears now across the highlands south of the Snake Plain toward Bear Lake, but the threat is only around 10 percent. Precip should remain in the Panhandle region this morning as the trough passes. Tomorrow, we'll see a zonal pattern transition into a more southwesterly flow as an upper low drops in from the Gulf of Alaska to the coastal waters of WA/OR.
The upper level flow becomes more southwesterly tomorrow ahead of a low pressure system along the Washington coast line.
/Issued 1028 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ Cold front stretches from far northeast Oklahoma into south-central Oklahoma this morning with a few rain showers across far northeast Oklahoma. Patchy fog currently across northwest Arkansas will also diminish over the next couple of hours as the cold front moves across northwest Arkansas.
General trend over the next several days will be one of warming and drying as deep ridging builds over the central U.
As an upper ridge slowly intensifies over the region, temperatures will begin a slow climb, but nothing overly hot is in the forecast yet.
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper level trough over the northern Plains will move eastward today. Most of the precipitation should shift east of the forecast area by this afternoon, although could not rule out isolated showers/storms mainly across west central and southwest IL until the upper level trough and associated cold mid level temperatures within the trough shift east of the forecast area. Cooler low temperatures can be expected tonight due to a clearing sky this evening and lower surface dew points. GKS Warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday as southwesterly low level winds bring warm air advection to our area.
Barring a few errant storms overnight and even some streamer cells towards daybreak, the next decent opportunity for precip should arise Tuesday afternoon as convective temps are attained underneath a weak upper trough. Deep ridging will build early in the period and the atmosphere will dry out accordingly.
Tuesday looks mostly dry across the area as upper ridging begins to build in across west Texas. Otherwise, highs will be in the lower to mid 90s under partly cloudy skies.
1028 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Cold front stretches from far northeast Oklahoma into south-central Oklahoma this morning with a few rain showers across far northeast Oklahoma. Patchy fog currently across northwest Arkansas will also diminish over the next couple of hours as the cold front moves across northwest Arkansas.
Just showers now, this trough should be the focus for any convection this afternoon. That said, I still think we'll see at least showers along this trough, and it should start expanding southward early this afternoon.
Finally, slightly drier air will build into the Southern Appalachian region in the wake of a departing upper trough. The sub-tropical high will slowly build across the region through much of the remainder of the work week which should help to limit diurnal convection to the higher terrain features. A weakness will gradually develop in the ridge pattern over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Weak mid-level ridge to maintain dry conditions across the ArkLaTex this evening with mainly high clouds prevailing areawide. Low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s. An upper-level trough across the region interacting with rich low-level moisture will generate sufficient instability to support widespread afternoon thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Roughly a 584 DM ridge is in place keeping a slight chance of midday convection over the higher terrain and higher elevations of the Palmer Divide today. Drier and much warmer conditions will prevail today as an upper level ridge begins building over the state and dry westerly flow aloft prevails. Temperatures won't quite reach the seasonal normal, but afternoon highs around 80 will sure feel a lot warmer than the weekend that just passed. The mountains and Palmer Divide may see a few showers develop through the afternoon hours, just because there will be strong heating from the sun and the developing upper ridge will not have enough subsidence to quell the diurnal pattern of building thermals.
344 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A line of showers and storms moved across the forecast area today allowing for cooler than expected daytime highs. High pressure will start to build in from the east mainly across the Gulf of Mexico. Moving towards mid week expect the ridge to hold on across the area.
327 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Skies were nearly clear today under modest subsidence in a dry lower troposphere behind the upper trough working its way across the upper Mississippi Valley. Dewpoints in the lower 70s were over central portions of Texas. The middle and later periods feature rising heights as an upper low develops over the Pacific Northwest.
Upper trof will continue to move east toward the Mississippi River valley today.
In the near term we are monitoring a cold front/outflow boundary that moved into the area last night and has stalled across the Permian Basin. Upper ridging builds over our region through the end of the week into this weekend.
Upper ridge centered just upstream the peninsula will gradually weaken in response to some impulses moving across the SE CONUS through midweek.
1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A drier airmass will continue to advect southeast through the morning across central and southeast Kansas in the wake of the departing upper trof and surface front. However, a surface trof/weak cold front will settle south into far northern Kansas Tuesday evening and looks to be the focus for convection toward or after sunset.
High pressure will build from the Tennessee Valley toward the region through the end of the week. A cold front may approach from Pennsylvania this weekend. Surface warm front is currently draped across central Virginia, and this is where scattered convection is expected to continue to focus this afternoon, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two and locally heavy rainfall possible given increasing moisture and instability as well as marginal shear.
336 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: High pressure locked in across the region has allowed for another hot day across South Florida.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently lies over the Desert Southwest and is drifting north into the Intermountain West over Nevada. A large closed upper low off the coast of British Columbia is drifting south. The system moves to the east this evening and an upper ridge builds into the forecast area on Tuesday with mainly dry weather.
1139 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 An upper level trough of low pressure was approaching the Ozarks early this morning.
328 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening -A few severe storms possible Tuesday evening -Very warm and summer-like mid to late week The cold front was pushing eastward through Iowa and will arrive in Michigan this evening. We will maintain the high probabilities for precipitation going. Mid level ridging develops over the Western Great Lakes for the end of the week. A cold front pushes through this evening which will likely cause a decrease in the activity. The low cloud impacts from earlier in the morning have decreased. Winds and waves will be on the increase tonight as a westerly flow develops behind the departing cold front.
147 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure will gradually build across the Southeast through Tuesday.
347 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure will gradually build across the Southeast through Tuesday.
Dry and less humid conditions later tonight into Tuesday will trend warmer and more humid mid week through the weekend. Coverage should trend more more isolated-scattered late this afternoon into this evening along and in advance of a cold front.
Medium Morning should start off quiet with lingering influence of surface ridging.
A retreating warm front should aid in kicking off thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening hours as the Cap erodes.
For tonight, we should clear out this evening with high pressure pushing east across the area. Winds will become more southerly on the back side of the high during the overnight hours.
440 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Under mostly sunny skies and light southeast to south winds, temperatures are in the lower 90s over many island communities. Little change in the forecast reasoning with the deep tropospheric anticyclone lying across our region and the adjacent waters slowly eroding and retrograding northwestward over the next several days. Because of the transitory anticyclone, a northeast steering flow will allow at least some cells/outflow boundaries to move across portions of the island chain during the late afternoon and early evening hours over the next couple of days.
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A weak disturbance operating on a cold front dropping through wrn and ncntl Nebraska could produce a small batch of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Bias correction was added to the guidance blend Tuesday and Tuesday night as warmer temperatures and south winds will develop, especially Tuesday night.
Ridging begins to build over the region on Tuesday, with southwest flow aloft.
Dry and less humid conditions later tonight into Tuesday will trend warmer and more humid mid week through the weekend. Coverage should trend more isolated-scattered late this afternoon into this evening along and in advance of a cold front.
445 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A cold front will move through central Indiana tonight as an upper trough pivots across the Great Lakes. Then, high pressure will build in and result in warmer weather with only small thunderstorm chances at times through the weekend. This looks reasonable as the front will be through by then and the trough will be moving away. With drier air moving in behind the front and clearing skies, cooler blend lows in the lower 60s look good. This should bring mostly benign but warmer weather to the area.
205 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019 An upper level trough will persist along the U.
An upper trough is now exiting the region, with a more zonal flow pattern setting up. Large scale ridging develops as the week progresses, and will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. This will bring considerable changes to the overall weather pattern, with dry and warmer conditions expected.
This has allowed for dewpoints to drop nicely into the lower 70s and even some upper 60s.
Temperatures will trend slightly lower but remain above seasonal averages through Tuesday as high pressure over the region weakens.
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A weak disturbance operating on a cold front dropping through wrn and ncntl Nebraska could produce a small batch of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Bias correction was added to the guidance blend Tuesday and Tuesday night as warmer temperatures and south winds will develop, especially Tuesday night.
647 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 At 3 PM, it was a beautiful afternoon with just a couple fair weather cumulus in the wake of a departing upper trough. A subtle upper trough will push a very weak cold front into eastern Nebraska tonight. The weak cold front should become stationary over the region Tuesday, and combine with any outflow boundaries from overnight/morning convection to be the focus for thunderstorm activity along or south of Interstate 80 Tuesday Afternoon.
Skies were nearly clear today under modest subsidence in a dry lower troposphere behind the upper trough working its way across the upper Mississippi Valley. Dewpoints in the lower 70s were over central portions of Texas. The middle and later periods feature rising heights as an upper low develops over the Pacific Northwest. Expect the low level winds to wane around 13Z.
As expected, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the heat of the afternoon, coinciding with an upper level trough to our north. The forcing associated with this trough has been enough to warrant this afternoon's severe thunderstorm watch, as well as a couple of warnings that have already verified with trees down in Smith County.
Cooler temperatures will be likely across the interior by mid week, and a few showers will be possible over Del Norte County.
The large upper high that brought dry weather to the Keys late last week and this past weekend is now retrograding off to the northwest and weakening. With high pressure moving off to our northwest, the 00z KEY sounding observed the development of light northeast winds in the 950-600 mb layer.
The upper level low will approach Oregon later tonight.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower 60s. Coverage should trend more isolated-scattered late this afternoon into this evening along and in advance of a cold front.
333 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section Temperatures will trend slightly lower but remain above seasonal averages through Tuesday as high pressure over the region weakens.
758 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 High pressure remains in place aloft and at the surface, keeping drier conditions over the region again today. High pressure will remain across the region, with winds and seas remaining below headlines through the week.
A cold front is stretched north to south through the forecast area at this time with upper 60s dew points over the east towards LAN and JXN at 03z and upper 50s dew points moving into the west along the Lake Michigan shore. The cold front was pushing eastward through Iowa and will arrive in Michigan this evening. We will maintain the high probabilities for precipitation going. Mid level ridging develops over the Western Great Lakes for the end of the week.
High temperatures will be getting hotter this week as high pressure builds over the region.
A cold front will move through central Indiana tonight as an upper trough pivots across the Great Lakes. Then, high pressure will build in and result in warmer weather with only small thunderstorm chances at times through the weekend. With drier air moving in behind the front and clearing skies, cooler blend lows in the lower 60s look good. This should bring mostly benign but warmer weather to the area.
High pressure centered over the GOMEX with a trough to its east will keep the Atlantic ridge axis suppressed south/east of the local Atlantic. Upper ridge centered just upstream the peninsula will gradually weaken in response to some impulses moving across the SE CONUS through midweek.
-Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening -A few severe storms possible Tuesday evening -Very warm and summer-like mid to late week The cold front was pushing eastward through Iowa and will arrive in Michigan this evening. We will maintain the high probabilities for precipitation going. Mid level ridging develops over the Western Great Lakes for the end of the week. A cold front pushes through this evening which will likely cause a decrease in the activity. The low cloud impacts from earlier in the morning have decreased. Winds and waves will be on the increase tonight as a westerly flow develops behind the departing cold front.
Going into tomorrow, a new weather pattern will set up as a closed low moves into the Pacific Northwest where it will remain nearly stationary for the remainder of the week.
Low temperatures tonight should range from the low to upper 60s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 89 68 87 / 20 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 87 65 86 / 30 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 65 88 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 85 60 85 / 60 10 0 0.
A ridge building over the CWA tonight will bring clearing conditions and weakening winds.
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Aviation/Marine -Humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening -A few severe storms possible Tuesday evening -Very warm and summer-like mid to late week The cold front was pushing eastward through Iowa and will arrive in Michigan this evening. We will maintain the high probabilities for precipitation going. Mid level ridging develops over the Western Great Lakes for the end of the week.
Highs are expected to rebound back into the lower/mid 90s for this time frame. Long-range guidance is keeping with the idea of an inverted upper trof/weakness area bet- ween the ridges over the northern Gulf by the weekend. While there are some discrepancies with the placement of the axis of this trof, slightly increased rain chances for SE TX by Fri on into the week- end. However, by tomorrow night/early Weds, we should be seeing an overall decrease with winds/seas as high pressure be- gins to build in from the east. With this high lingering in/around the northern Gulf, light to moderate onshore winds to prevail with decreased seas (likely ranging from 2 to 4 ft) through the rest of the week.
/issued 336 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: High pressure locked in across the region has allowed for another hot day across South Florida.
A cold front will move through central Indiana tonight as an upper trough pivots across the Great Lakes. Then, high pressure will build in and result in warmer weather with only small thunderstorm chances at times through the weekend. This looks reasonable as the front will be through by then and the trough will be moving away. With drier air moving in behind the front and clearing skies, cooler blend lows in the lower 60s look good. This should bring mostly benign but warmer weather to the area.
1142 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers and storms should exit the region tonight with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected Tuesday under building high pressure. Showers should diminish overnight as a prefrontal trough and upper support exit the region. The sfc cold front is progged for an early morning passage, though a lack of deep layer moisture and upper support should preclude precip. At this time, Tue appears likely to feature cooler air and no rain. The ridge position will be important for assessing any threat for convection during the late-week timeframe. Sustain speeds will be around 10-15kts with gusts in the lower 20 kts range.
249 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Upper level pattern is mainly zonal across the western CONUS with a trough extending from the Great Lakes though the Mississippi Valley. PW values are around average, and expect the storms to be a little higher based due to the low level moisture profiles.
844 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019 An upper level trough will persist over the West this week, maintaining onshore flow and a moderate marine layer.
325 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 A cold front moved into northeast Nebraska overnight, brining a round of thunderstorms to the area capable of producing strong winds. At the surface, showers and storms will diminish through the morning, and the previously mentioned cold front will settle south through the area, becoming stationary. As the low level jet picks up overnight, storms may congeal into an MCS as they progress southeast of the forecast area.
202 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 High pressure just south of the region, combined with a drier airmass across the region will result in dry weather today through tonight along with near normal temperatures.
Morning lows for Tuesday will be more mild due to the warmer southerly low level flow in the upper 50s to mid 60s west to east across the CWA. Winds will pick up out of the south to southwest up to 20 mph by mid morning due to daytime heating and mixing of the stronger boundary layer winds to the surface with a deepened leeside trough across eastern Colorado. A few cumulus clouds during the afternoon peak heating hours with highs pushing back into the low 90s. Precipitation wise, a weak mid level trough will push across the northern and eastern periphery of the CWA giving slight pops for these areas with very isolated severe potential evident. Instability will be high with CAPE values and warmer temperatures but moisture will be pretty limited due to the weak northwest flow aloft.
1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 At 3 PM, it was a beautiful afternoon with just a couple fair weather cumulus in the wake of a departing upper trough. A subtle upper trough will push a very weak cold front into eastern Nebraska tonight. The weak cold front should become stationary over the region Tuesday, and combine with any outflow boundaries from overnight/morning convection to be the focus for thunderstorm activity along or south of Interstate 80 Tuesday Afternoon.
Lows early this morning are expected to drop into the lower 60s. Mostly sunny skies and seasonable high temperatures in the lower 80s are expected today. Coverage should trend more isolated-scattered late this afternoon into this evening along and in advance of a cold front.
Lows tonight will also be warmer due to increased cloud cover and higher surface dew points.
356 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 A weak cold front will move east across central NC this morning. High pressure will slowly build into the region behind the front through midweek. High temps are expected to range from the upper 80s NW to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere, with high cirrus streaming across the area. However, with dewpoints falling into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon, heat index values should remain below 100 degrees today. Tonight: A reinforcing weak dry cold front will move across the area tonight.
155 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Drier air will arrive from the west on Tuesday behind the cold front.
1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 A weak disturbance operating on a cold front dropping through wrn and ncntl Nebraska could produce a small batch of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Bias correction was added to the guidance blend Tuesday and Tuesday night as warmer temperatures and south winds will develop, especially Tuesday night.
Skies were nearly clear today under modest subsidence in a dry lower troposphere behind the upper trough working its way across the upper Mississippi Valley. Dewpoints in the lower 70s were over central portions of Texas. The middle and later periods feature rising heights as an upper low develops over the Pacific Northwest.