Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
626 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Quiet weather is expected across the area as North and Central Texas remains under the influence of an upper level ridge. Even within the DFW metro area proper, morning temps should reach the lower 60s, a few degrees below average for early September. This pattern consists of a building upper ridge over the Great Plains with an upstream upper low positioned off the west coast. In addition, the northward progression of Hurricane Irma over the eastern US will behave as a blockade downstream, acting to hold the upper ridge in place over the central portion of the country. Have generally sided with warmer high temperature guidance and cooler low temperature guidance with the dry air in place allowing for larger diurnal temperature swings.
VFR tonight into tomorrow as high pressure will dominate the region. Upper level ridging will build across the region through the weekend keeping any chance of Irma making any kind of headway into the gulf at a minimum.
944 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Somewhat drier air will continue to filter into the area tonight behind an exiting cold front.
1233 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Somewhat drier air will continue to filter into the area tonight behind an exiting cold front.
Otherwise, at all terminals, VFR/SKC conditions per continuance of sfc ridging influences and dry nwly flow aloft thru 08/24Z.
933 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 An upper level trough will gradually begin to move out the region tonight into Friday. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for the weekend. Slightly warmer temperatures around 50 degrees will be present along and south of the Ohio river Friday night. High pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend.
/Issued 626 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2017/ Quiet weather is expected across the area as North and Central Texas remains under the influence of an upper level ridge. Even within the DFW metro area proper, morning temps should reach the lower 60s, a few degrees below average for early September. This pattern consists of a building upper ridge over the Great Plains with an upstream upper low positioned off the west coast. In addition, the northward progression of Hurricane Irma over the eastern US will behave as a blockade downstream, acting to hold the upper ridge in place over the central portion of the country. Have generally sided with warmer high temperature guidance and cooler low temperature guidance with the dry air in place allowing for larger diurnal temperature swings.
Otherwise, at all terminals, VFR/SKC conditions per continuance of sfc ridging influences and dry nwly flow aloft thru 09/06Z.
The cold front that will be moving through today will be true in every sense of the word.
The cold front will clear the area by this afternoon with showers ending by this evening. With that said, will continue to suggest folks in SE AR/NW MS maintain extra awareness for any heavy rainfall given the low FFG values and will maintain the flood watch.
225 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Water vapor imagery early today showed a northern stream trough coming out of the northern plains with another trough across the southern plains. Drying will occur through the day with the passage of the upper trough as skies clear from the west.
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 The main concern in the short term will be the redevelopment of fog overnight as high pressure settles in at the surface over the snow pack.
300 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 As of 3 am the front has pushed south of Lubbock and highs today will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 50s to low 60s.
259 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 A cold front was in the process of moving southeast across the Missouri Ozarks during the predawn hours. Brisk and gusty north winds will usher in a cooler and eventually drier air mass today. Highs over most areas should be in the lower to middle 50s.
This wave is the precursor to a deep area of low pressure that will slowly come ashore along the west coast over the next few days.
A cold front will shift the wind to the north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph Thursday morning.
242 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Early this morning the positive tilt upper level trough was located from southeast IA, southwest into north TX. The ascent ahead of this upper trough has moved east across the mid MS river valley, then extended southwest into east TX. The surface cold front has pushed southeast of KS and the isentropic downglide and CAA have cleared skies across much of the CWA. The low stratus across east central KS will push southeast of the CWA by sunrise. An upper level ridge across the west central US will move east across the central and southern plains Today and Tonight. An intense upper level low will begin to dig southeast onto the Pacific northwest coast late Tonight. Expect mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures with highs reaching the lower to mid 50s.
311 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Second wave of sustained moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall has moved north of the area as warm frontal boundary continues to lift.
Lows tonight 5 to 15 and highs Thursday in the low to mid 30s with some upper 30s west and south central. Light and variable winds under clear skies are likely as high pressure remains over the area.
This high moves east tonight and allows for breezy southeast winds to develop - mainly over the western CWA.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Weak low pressure has departed and the associated cold front has now sagged south of us. To our west, there is mid level troughing through the central US. Despite the stratus mixing out through the remainder of the afternoon, the lower levels will still be relatively moist (outside of the srn CWA where diurnal heating has been all day).
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Quiet weather will persist over the next day as high pressure remains firmly in place. This will result in overnight lows to drop into the low to mid teens across the forecast area.
The cold front is moving into SE OK and will plow in overnight and early Thursday with convection focused along boundary for a few hours affecting terminals from 05/07Z for KTXK/KTYR and through about 12Z for KLFK/KMLU for the most part.
High pressure will slide off to the southeast today and return flow will kick in tonight.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms stretch from the Mid-South through DFW and down into Central Texas as a cold front continues to drive towards the area. Surface analysis shows a cold front over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. The true cold front should reach the area later in the morning.
1152 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Areas of low pressure will ripple east along a warm front moving north through the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas tonight.
The cold front will plow in overnight and early Thursday with convection focused along boundary for a few hours affecting terminals from 05/06Z for TXK/TYR and through about 12Z for LFK/MLU.
Overrunning precip event ongoing with light to moderate showers moving through the forecast area as a warm front lies to our south with warm and moist air being lifted over the boundary. The higher winds should stay confined to elevations above 3500 feet where wind gusts up to 40 mph are expected. NW flow combined with falling temperatures behind the front will allow for light snow across the highest peaks overnight. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 30s for most valley locations with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the higher elevations.
1231 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Rain is expected late tonight and Thursday with crossing low pressure.
Low pressure will approach the area today before passing through tonight.
1213 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Low pressure will cross the region overnight into Thursday.
Wind shift associated with the cold front is now through KBVO/KTUL/KRVS, with MVFR ceilings likely at all 3 sites within a couple hours, as a deck of low clouds moves in behind the front. Precipitation will begin to shift east later tonight as the upper trof and cold front push into the region.
some light drizzle/freezing drizzle possible at times through tonight. Overnight composite analysis reveals short wave troughing across central CONUS with a piece of northern stream energy dipping into the upper Midwest. Guidance suggests temps will warm into the mid and upper 30s (MAV numbers are warmer still) suggesting a rain/snow mix. and wouldn't be surprised to see some light snow/freezing drizzle as a result. synoptic precip continues to pivot through the region as low pressure tracks quickly off the Atlantic coast by morning. Trailing inverted trough/convergence axis drags across northern Michigan in it's wake and may keep some light nuisance precip (snow/freezing drizzle) going for a good portion of the night.
/issued 309 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018/ A warm front slowly lifting north across the area will continue to bring showers to the northern parts of the area. After a brief lull in activity for many areas overnight and into early Thursday, a cold front will be pushing into the area from the northwest. Cold front is projected to clear the area by late on Thursday.
1100 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 Upper trough moving from AZ into NM this afternoon, with weak upward vertical motion and modest convective instability forcing scattered rain/snow showers across mainly the mountains. Mainly a dusting of snow at most locations, perhaps an inch or 2 over the highest peaks. On Thu, flat upper ridge moves eastward across the state as surface winds become sly at most locations by afternoon.
A cold front has pushed through KCDS and will quickly progress across the KPVW and KLBB about the time or shortly after this set of TAFs goes into effect at 06Z. Culprit for delay of winds is the closed upper low west of the Arizona-New Mexico border with upper flow remaining backed enough for high cloud bands stretched overhead and enough instability for light rain showers within the bands. Once the opening upper low crosses into the western Texas Panhandle close to midnight tonight we will see a modest cold front push south through our area mainly after midnight along with drier air.
926 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 A weak cold front pushed through the high plains this morning, with surface winds shifting to northerly and slightly cooler temperatures.
This will provide another shot of showers and an isolated thunderstorm late this afternoon, with some of the showers providing gusty winds given the low level jet that develops. Given the west to northwest flow we will advect some cooler air into the region with lows dropping into the 30s.
Low pressure over east central Illinois will move east across Indiana by midday as trailing cold front pushes east across our region. Gusty winds will occur behind the cold front late today and this evening.
1209 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 On the large-scale this afternoon, water vapor imagery still depicting a large upper low across the Desert Southwest, with a well-established plume of east-Pacific moisture in place further downstream across the Southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. A tight pressure gradient on the backside of this front will set the stage for breezy north winds late tonight and for much of the day on Thursday before high pressure arrives late in the day. Thursday will be a tad cooler with highs likely topping out in the lower 50s for most locations. Quiet weather to then persist through the conclusion of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend as low amplitude ridging builds overhead.
403 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Rain is expected today with crossing low pressure.
320 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 A warm front will slowly shift north through our area this morning. A cold front will move through late this afternoon and evening providing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it. Warm and breezy conditions expected to develop ahead of the cold front.
1152 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Rain is expected late tonight and Thursday with crossing low pressure.
With that said, will continue to suggest folks in SE AR/NW MS maintain extra awareness for any heavy rainfall given the low FFG values and will maintain the flood watch.
1139 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 A neutral/slightly negatively tilted trough will dig from Saskatchewan/Manitoba this afternoon southeastward to northern Wisconsin by Thursday evening. At the surface, low pressure will develop somewhere across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio River Valley, while an inverted trough extends northwestward into northern Wisconsin. Lows tonight range from the single digits above zero to the low to mid 20s across northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will build into the Northern Plains on Thursday. Cooler 850 hPa air will advect into the region as flow aloft becomes northwesterly. This will bring cooler temperatures on Thursday in comparison to today. Late-week a broad area of high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
1040 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 A low over the Gulf of Alaska will drop southward toward the Pac NW on Thursday as transitory ridging builds into Utah and Colorado. A weak disturbance will initiate isolated showers across NE Utah and NW Colorado Thursday afternoon, likely only across the higher terrain. Southwesterly winds will increase late Thursday as a large amplitude trough develops across the western US.
A accompanying cold front should make its passage mostly in the 12Z-18Z time frame. The precipitation chances should come to a rapid end with the cold frontal passage. However, the HRRR does know it, but ramps up showers and even some thunderstorms ahead of the cold front from southeast Missouri through southern Illinois 09Z-12Z. Convection cannot be ruled out along and ahead of the cold front after daybreak, but coverage is not likely to be as great as the pre-dawn hours.
229 AM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 Current surface map places weak high pressure across western South Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains today as upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest.
It will remain mild otherwise with lows in the 40s tonight and highs in the low to mid 50s tomorrow. A strengthening low pressure system will provide a soaking rainfall later Wednesday night into Thursday.
A cold front will push through the area from west to east between mid morning and early afternoon accompanied by a line of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. A cold front will slip down toward the forecast area tonight, with pre-frontal trough progged to enter the forecast area between 3 am and 6 am, that will allow for scattered showers and a few storms to form, mainly over the northern third of the forecast area, with activity pushing south as the true cold front arrives during Thursday morning. A cold front across the Southern Plains will move across the forecast area on Thursday morning. Drier air will move in behind the front during Thursday allowing for cooler conditions to prevail through the remainder of the week into the first part of the weekend.
Surface ridging will build over the area today in the wake of the passing cold front from Wednesday. High temps will be slightly cooler today, averaging in the low 50s throughout the area. Overnight lows will return to the sub-freezing category with values dipping into the mid to upper 20s as surface winds remain in place out of the north. The recent active pattern will be replaced with a mid-level ridging pattern, which will provide a lull in precip chances until the late weekend.
A cold front will move through the area between 12z and 15z, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 15 knots. Hi-Res models including the TTU WRF and HRRR seem to be initializing this convection quite well and indicate additional development east and southeast through evening as the dryline/Pacific front push east and large scale ascent increases with the approaching upper level trough. A stronger cold front will drop south across the area overnight and early Thursday. Skies will be sunny but temperatures will be cooler, with afternoon highs in the 60s.
1005 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over central SD, with mostly sunny skies. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the region, with low pressure moving east across NM. Quiet weather will continue through the end of the week as a weak ridge over the Pacific NW moves east into the plains.
208 AM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 SW flow aloft will develop over the region today as a sfc lee trough becomes established along the front range. Highs will rise into the lower to mid 50s across nern CO this aftn. High res data has readings reaching the upper 50s around Denver, however, simulated ckoud imagery suggests there could be some mid to high level cloud cover so will not go this high for now.
High pressure will build over the region through the weekend.
Model consensus timing of associated cold front indicates that the front will pass through early in the day, keeping temps from rising any higher than the upper 60s/lower 70s before at least slowly falling after fropa. Models advertise much cooler/fall conditions will follow on Tue under blustery n to nw winds/mostly cloudy skies and isolated/scattered showers. Expect dry/warmer conditions on Thu under westerly flow to the s of low pres moving e across far northern Ontario. Otherwise, winds will become light and variable tonight as high pressure moves overhead, and then eventually becoming southerly this morning. Ahead of a cold front that will push east across the lake on Saturday, winds will become S-SW and increase to 20 to 30 knots tonight and Saturday.
400 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Upper trough swinging through the central Rockies early this morning, with a few showers/sprinkles still lingering across the region as of 10z. Trough will drop sewd through CO today, pushing the cold front through the plains this morning, with boundary reaching the NM border by afternoon.
FRIDAY THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Upper level low moving through the Canadian Maritimes/New England is expected to pick up TD Harvey as it moves across the TN/OH Valley into the weekend. These features will result in the upper level ridge axis being displaced further south, and a weakening of the low level ridge as an associated frontal boundary is briefly able to get further into the Florida peninsula. Cooler temperatures aloft (-7C to -8C) may help enhance storm strength.
523 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Cooler temperatures expected while the remnants of Harvey bring rain later today through much of the weekend.
The tightest pressure gradient associated with the low is out ahead of it, so expect some gusty conditions the next several hours. There will be a brief lull in the vicinity of the low center before winds pick up again west of it and south of it later this afternoon and evening. By Saturday afternoon, the low should be filling in quickly, and though rain still will be in the area, rates should come down enough not to cause new flooding issues.
Instead, troughing extending from the Ohio River Valley into Texas will aid to pull moisture up from the southwest Gulf to interact with the boundary already in place to increase the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area during the first half of the work week.
431 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Cooler temperatures expected while the remnants of Harvey bring rain later today through much of the weekend.
Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows the ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners Region. A weak upper level short wave trough was over Nebraska headed south. Tonight the weak upper level short wave trough will move over the Tri-State Area. Friday another weak upper level short wave trough will move across the forecast area, deepening over the southeast in the late afternoon and evening. Behind the trough the winds will turn to the north. The trough may serve as a focus for storm development in the afternoon.
/Issued 1159 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017/ Radar depicted isolated showers across the SERN CWA spatially consistent with a surface theta-E ridge per MSAS.
324 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 The upper level trough will continue to drag across the southern half of the area, making slow progress to the east and south. WV satellite imagery shows frontolysis occurring at all levels so uplift from the trough is minimal. Further north and west cooler temperatures and more stable conditions will continue spreading over the area. After midnight tonight the trough should be south of the CO and UT borders and closed high pressure will once again take hold over the Great Basin. The strong ridge over the Great Basin will remain the dominant weather feature over the western U.
High pressure has led to plenty of sunshine across the Northland today, with a bit more cloudiness across parts of far northern Minnesota. The high will aid in keeping skies mostly clear tonight and winds will become light for most areas. It will be a cool night with lows dropping into the lower to middle thirties over parts of the Arrowhead and over mainly Iron County in northern Wisconsin. It will be cooler along the North Shore.
High pressure and dry Labor Day. Cold front midweek.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): As the weakening remains of Tropical Depression Harvey transition from the Mississippi River Valley to the Ohio River Valley, 500 mb high pressure over the western United States will nose into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
An upper level ridge to the west of the area will have an impact on temperatures over the weekend. As the ridge edges a little closer, the temperatures are expected to start to warm.
High pressure and dry Labor Day. Cold front midweek. Models are now in fairly good agreement with Harvey dissipating over the Ohio Valley on Saturday as it becomes an open trough by Saturday afternoon.
High pressure moves into Arkansas from the west for Friday and Saturday. Dry weather is expected with this high pressure system.
303 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 High pressure, to the northeast, continues to hang around today. By Saturday, the remnants of Harvey will be moving into the Ohio River valley, and will work to break the high to the northeast down.
Tropical Depression Harvey will slowly lift northeastward into the Tennessee Valley on Friday, as it is scooped up by the upper level trough. The trough will begin to deamplify Saturday, lifting the remnants of Harvey into the northeast Saturday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows will be mostly in the low 70s.
102 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Cooler temperatures expected while the remnants of Harvey bring rain later today through much of the weekend. The cold front has advanced southeastward all but the southeasternmost portions of the CWA. Behind the cold front, a vast gap in high cloud coverage and a waning cumulus field in the post- frontal environment should allow for partly cloudy skies for almost the entirety of the overnight before high clouds start to advance northward from the south post- sunrise.
237 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Imagery shows overly complex upper level pattern with high pressure out over the EPAC and a low pressure trof stretching from the nrn high plains through nern/cntrl WY and into UT. The SFC has a deep trof that stretches from low P centered over nern MT down through the High Plains to nearly nrn TX. High pressure exists between these two low pressure areas with weak(ening) low pressure over the Desert SW. Today through the end of the forecast period another extended dry period begins as a broad upper level high pressure ridge overtakes much of the western CONUS.
140 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Cooler temperatures expected while the remnants of Harvey bring rain later today through much of the weekend. The cold front has advanced southeastward all but the southeasternmost portions of the CWA. Behind the cold front, a vast gap in high cloud coverage and a waning cumulus field in the post- frontal environment should allow for partly cloudy skies for almost the entirety of the overnight before high clouds start to advance northward from the south post- sunrise.
Short range models indicate that the majority of rain will occur on the north and western portions of the low.
342 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 High pressure across Canada today will build southeastward into our region through tonight.