Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models through tomorrow morning continue to show the highest qpf amounts over the Blue Mountains, Palouse, and southern Shoshone county where westerly upslope winds will enhance snow totals.
Although cooler temperatures aloft begin to edge into far northeast KS and northwest MO this afternoon, warm near-surface temperatures will keep the potential for rain/snow to reach the surface very slim, and have elected not to mention in the forecast for this afternoon and evening.
UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THRU THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
MAINLY TO DROP WARNING IN FAR NW MN AS SNOW IS MOSTLY GONE AND MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. ON THE NRN EDGE OF THIS WARMER AIRMASS IS AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM GFK TO TVF AND PROBABLY TOWARD ROX/RRT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE FLOW AS A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
224 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 Low level moisture surging north this morning into Southeast Oklahoma with dew-points increasing into the lower 60s with surface based cape approaching 1000 j/kg near the Red River.
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE = QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND BEYOND). A STRONG 598 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NM WHILE A 567 DM 500 MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. A 1022 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WI SW ACROSS NW MO AND EASTERN KS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
838 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL START THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COASTS AND A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP RETROGRADE THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST.
1018 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
737 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE EAST. LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY EVENING STILL ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH WITH TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER (WHERE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS COOLER). AS LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TOWARD 00Z WHEN THE CAP IS WEAKEST.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT MODELS PORTRAY A DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WEST.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. FIRST IMPULSE OVER-TOPPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 18Z THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR NW, THUS KEEPING MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A COOL, DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS.
1100 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 ELONGATED VORT MAX/H5 TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL UTAH TODAY CONTINUES TO SPIN CLOCKWISE AROUND VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY.
THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL BRING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 13/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
924 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NE CONUS OVRNGT. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
RADAR SHOWED SMOKE ECHOES ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER WEISER BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1248 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL START THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COASTS AND A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP RETROGRADE THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST.
724 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. MODELS AND MOS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN WARMER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER ALOFT AND LESS CYCLONIC SHOULD MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS THURSDAY.
WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL U.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM TEXAS TO MONTANA WITH A LOW APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN/SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO.
Otherwise, conditions are quiet with overnight lows in the low 70s across SE Alabama and parts of SW Georgia where drier air has moved in and generally mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
731 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH NE THEN EAST TONIGHT AS IT RIDES THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AS TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 90S ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES OUT OF WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE UA RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO DRIFT WRD TO ACROSS THE FOUR- CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND.
THEN OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS DOWN INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
724 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
/issued 241 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ The upper ridge that has been dominating sensible weather patterns lately will continue to exert its influence over the region, though the primary ridge axis has begun to shift westward, and will become anchored near the Four Corners Region by this weekend. As high pressure continues to exert its influence, expect high clouds tonight, and seasonable lows in the 60s and 70s across the area.
1012 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF NICELY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE BETTER PART OF THE AREA FREE FOR PRECIP BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE FA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA LEADING A DECREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SLOWLY BUILDING TOWARD ARIZONA. FURTHER EAST, A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED IN WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT MODELS PORTRAY A DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WEST.
VFR and light wind conditions are expected through the period as high pressure at the surface remains in control across the region.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPS WEVE SEEN IN A WHILE.
859 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE = QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND BEYOND). A STRONG 598 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NM WHILE A 567 DM 500 MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. A 1022 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WI SW ACROSS NW MO AND EASTERN KS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT IN THE LOWEST 10000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME OCCASIONALLY PRECIPITATING LIGHTLY AROUND THE LOWER KEYS. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL NOT FALL BELOW THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE IT RAINS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY WITH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY IN POSITION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT TOPS THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH CLIPPING THE TRI-STATE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
739 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THAT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
531 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE WILL SUPPLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHOULD SET UP A DECENT LEE WIND ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ZONE OF STRONGER WINDS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE CREST SHOULD LAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. UPPER ENERGY DOES APPEAR TO WANDER OUT AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING BY QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY. BUT SOME QUESTION AS TO IF IMPACT WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINING WITH LESS DEEP MIXING TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO GET HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS. STILL LIKELY ON THE LOW END OF COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 325 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. LACK OF A MARINE LAYER ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW PREVENTED INLAND TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. THE FAR SOUTHERN SAN BENITO COUNTY INTERIOR REACHED THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY WHILE THE NORTH AND EAST BAY INTERIOR WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
741 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROF AXIS WILL WILL SLIP EAST OF CNY/NEPA THIS EVENING.
628 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 A STRONG 598 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NM WHILE A 567 DM 500 MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. A 1022 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WI SW ACROSS NW MO AND EASTERN KS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
725 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. HWVR FLW NWD OF RIDGELINE BACKS WRLY AND WILL LEAD TO THERMAL RIDGING THU-FRI W/WARMING TEMPS.
1032 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN MI AND A DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
WITH LOW TEMPS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. GFS AND EURO STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL THEN MEANDER WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION TOWARD TEXAS.
THINK STREAMER CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT SINCE FLOW IS WEAK AND BETTER THETA-E RIDGE IS INLAND.
606 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
MAY NEED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ON THURSDAY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH.
937 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WV Imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level area of high pressure centered across the South Plains of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. With a lack of widespread precipitation and/or cloudiness, the opportunity for much warmer raw model forecast temperatures reaching into the 90s is likely, which will be the case over the next several days.
622 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF WINDS REMAIN CALM FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS THEN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
852 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY WARM WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CREATING DIFFERENCES IN QPF FIELDS THAT CREATES UNCERTAINTY AS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREADS EAST CLOUDS INCREASING. WAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH DROPPING TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EVOLVING. A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF INTO THE OH VLY AND LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGD TO TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN PULLING WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON DEVELOPING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE LANDBREEZE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER COASTAL FL. AS THE TROUGH DROPS FURTHER SOUTH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FL.
614 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF WINDS REMAIN CALM FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS THEN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
945 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROF AXIS WILL WILL SLIP EAST OF CNY/NEPA THIS EVENING.
1005 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL START THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COASTS AND A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP RETROGRADE THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST.
651 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 The quiet and dry weather pattern will persist through the end of the week as upper level ridging remains in place over the Plains and Rockies. At the surface and in the low level, high pressure will help to keep conditions relatively dry with weak winds. While the area will be under the influence of the upper ridge, the hottest temperatures associated with it will remain to our west. Humidity also doesn't look outrageous so heat indices in the lower to middle 90s are expected through the end of the week.
BUT THE BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST DURING THAT TIME. AS A RESULT OF THE LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AROUND HERE.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 VERY LATE TONIGHT.
1059 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF THE RIDGE AND SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER HIGH.
1249 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
745 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. MODELS AND MOS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN WARMER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER ALOFT AND LESS CYCLONIC SHOULD MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A ROBUST WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE DISTRICT UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND 80S MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS WEST OF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
359 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY.
A pattern shift is indicated by global models with a large high amplitude ridge developing over the eastern Pacific with downstream troughing opening up the door for some colder air to move south over the central CONUS.
Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging pushing slowly east across the Central Plains through Monday night. Considering the dry air mass across the high plains and a weak flow aloft, precip will remain absent from western Kansas through the period. Highs are expected to reach near 40F across central Kansas to the lower to mid 40s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. Slightly warmer low temperatures are likely Monday night as the low level flow becomes more southerly. Look for lows only down into the 20s(F) as the warmer air begins to slowly lift into western Kansas. Weak lee troughing and southerly flow will allow for some moisture return and milder overnight lows by mid-week.
357 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge over the central CONUS this morning will build to the east through tonight as an upper trough now over the Pacific coastline moves over the western CONUS. Afternoon highs today will range from the mid to upper 40s over the Big Country to the lower 50s south of the Big Country.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UNDER SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER MONTANA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN. TONIGHTS LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND HI-LINE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
257 AM MST MON JAN 4 2016 WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR COMPOSITE REVEALED A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A TROUGH FROM A CENTRAL MT LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL WY. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES.
The axis of an upper level trough will continue to swing across the Lower Ohio Valley this morning and be east of the forecast area by early afternoon. Wind chill values will stay in the 20s in most areas today with highs topping out in the lower to mid 30s.
WV Imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is pushing ashore into southern California and Baja California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting eastward across the Upper Midwest. Winds will be fairly light for most of tonight, but should become southeasterly by morning due to the aforementioned lee trough development. Weak lee troughing and southerly flow will allow for some moisture return and milder overnight lows by mid-week.
421 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.