Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Main update this morning was to produce all the forecast, watch/warning and graphics products for the first advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 (PTC2), and for the Flash Flood Watch (FFA) that was issued for areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor through Thursday early evening.
1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Breezy northwest winds gusting to 35 mph will begin fairly early this morning and last throughout the day as a diffuse cold front pushes through the region. The core of the potent parent upper- level trough will be close enough today to cause scattered rain showers, as cool temperatures aloft support shallow convection. On Thursday the pattern will begin to change as an upper-level ridge builds in the wake of Wednesday's trough.
A return of monsoonal moisture will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms today over the higher terrain. Some shower and thunderstorm development is forecast today across the higher-terrain, though significant precip is still unlikely for most locations. The low levels of the atmosphere will remain quite dry, so the primary threat from these storms will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. Temperatures across the lower elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon will climb to 105-110 F both afternoons, making for a moderate heat risk. Be sure to take the necessary precautions by planning outdoor activities during cooler times of the day and staying hydrated.
A cold front will approach the area toward sunrise bringing showers and storms during the morning hours with gradually drying conditions from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon. Tonight low temps will hold in the lower 70s. Updated at 344 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Showers and storms will exit the region by Thursday night as a cold front sinks into the Tennessee Valley.
The RAP shows this cap eroding somewhat but not completely this afternoon, so have held onto a slight chance of storms mainly across our southeast where the cumulus field is more robust and the passing cold front will coincide with the best diurnal support. With dewpoints in the 60s by morning rather than lower 70s like this morning, low temperatures tonight behind the cold front should also be a few degrees cooler than this morning.
Tomorrow's temperatures should be cooler with the cold front through the area. Expect highs in the lower 90s and heat indices between 90 and 100 degrees. Under the influence of the ridge, the next few days should remain dry.
A cold front will push south, across Texas tonight, and initiate thunderstorms. Dry and Cooler.
Mid level troughiness aloft the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico organizes into a closed low over the western half of the Gulf by late Thu. At the surface: Broad low pressure south of the MS/AL coast eases westward. The NHC is issuing Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisories on this area. it is expected to become a tropical cyclone by Thu. Atlantic high pressure stretches westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The western Gulf mid level low shifts on to the western Gulf coast as mid level ridging from the Atlantic builds across FL and over the Gulf. An Atlantic high pressure ridge extending westward to the Gulf. The ridging. Potential Tropical Cyclone Number Two.
Still generally under the influence of high pressure through the rest of the day, so these storms won't have any synoptic forcing to help them strengthen. The extended range fcst period kicks off on Thursday night amidst an increasingly active pattern across the southeast CONUS thanks to an H5 trough moving through the OH Valley, and PTC Two moving through the northern GOM. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching the region from the west beneath the aforementioned H5 trough, with a modestly unstable warm sector out ahead, thus prefrontal scattered/numerous thunderstorms are favored. Moving forward through the remainder of the period, uncertainty in prevalent as guidance tends to stall the noted cold front somewhere near/along the US 64 corridor, possibly southward into north GA, all complicated by the eventual track of PTC Two (which has it's own inherent uncertainty).
122 PM PDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Warming trend across Central California over the next few days as high pressure builds over the area.
Warm and dry for Thursday as high pressure continues to build over the area.
Low pressure stationed north of Winnipeg late Thu will have a frontal boundary extending southward into the northern Valley before washing out. Look for increasing temps and humidity Fri and into the weekend, with high pressure overhead on Fri leading to a dry day.
Fcst soundings show some drier air in the 850-700 layer that will likely mix toward the surface during the afternoon and dew points will probably fall into the lower 70's. The lower dew points will impede heat index values from reaching 108 degrees today and most values will remain between 102 and 105 degrees this afternoon.
A narrow line of t-storms formed near the low prior to 08z and moving south. Otherwise showers on the north and west side of the upper low will move eastward today as the low departs. though dry tongue which wrapped around the south and now east side of the upper low will cutoff moisture and allow the deformation zone rain NW of the upr low to diminish as it moves east. Low pressure with system north of Winnipeg with a front/trough southwest into NE ND late Thursday aftn/eve.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Upper level low is moving near the northern shore of Lake Superior this afternoon with the cold front almost east of the state. As the upper low/upper trough swings through the region the rest of today, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to form over northern Iowa and move east-southeastward. As an upper level ridge amplifies over the western US, our region will experience northwest flow aloft with temperatures a few degrees below normal and drier air through Thursday night.
Temperatures are a little cooler and there is a breeze. There is also an upper level ridge that will be building to the west of the forecast area.
1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 A cold front will cross the region early on Thursday, increasing the chances of thunderstorm activity.
/issued 416 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019/ All eyes on the gulf as an area of low pressure begins to organize.
More widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Still have some isolated activity near and over the ridges with continued upslope flow.
Winds will continue to decrease this evening as low pressure moves further east and high pressure builds in. Quiet weather will continue across the CWA Thursday as ridging aloft begins to build. Winds will become southerly, and increasing temps aloft and clear skies will allow for warmer surface temperatures across the board, compared to Wednesday. Central South Dakota may rise into the low 90s, and dewpoints back into the mid to upper 60s will make for the return of sticky conditions.
Avery An upper-level ridge, centered over the Four Corners Region, will extend northward into Montana for the remainder of the week. This will bring generally dry weather and much warmer temperatures.
722 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 The risk for isolated to scattered showers continues overnight, followed by more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances with a Thursday cold front. Most of the activity is located over the highest ridges, were the low level winds are supporting upslope flow, thus convection develops over the ridge tops then begins to slowly drift eastward when it becomes tall enough to get caught in the weak flow aloft.
Current surface analysis shows a cold front to our west in central Missouri extending northward. The aforementioned cold front will start to move into the Mid- South by Thursday afternoon.
420 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 High pressure will remain over the Four Corners region which will keep temperatures warm and dry overnight.
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Upper level ridging will build northward across the area tonight through Thursday. Drier air has temporarily moved southeast into the area behind an upper level low tracking across the Northern Plains. Mainly dry conditions are expected along with warmer high temperatures Thursday. Winds will be on the increase as well Thursday as leeward troughing develops east of the Rockies. This will draw higher dew points/moisture back into the region along with the warmer air.
The forecast area will then be between a strong upper high over the southern Rockies/Four Corners region and an upper trough in the northeastern Pacific.
Winds will be northeast 5 to 10 KTS late tonight and Thursday as a weak cold front moves through. A cold front will push south, across Texas tonight, and initiate thunderstorms. Dry and Cooler.
Daily, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through the remainder of the work week, primarily over and near the higher terrain. A weak disturbance moving around the NW periphery of a building upper level ridge continues to spread mid to high level cloud- cover across the Northern Rockies and MT this afternoon with potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, primarily across SW MT.
A return of monsoonal moisture will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain into this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed today across the higher-terrain, though significant precip is still unlikely for most locations. The low levels of the atmosphere will remain quite dry, so the primary threat from these storms will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. Temperatures across the lower elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon will climb to 105-110 F both afternoons, making for a moderate heat risk. Be sure to take the necessary precautions by planning outdoor activities during cooler times of the day and staying hydrated.
Model forecasts continue to indicate greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as a slow moving upper trough drags a weak cool frontal boundary into the region.
One weak final push of Delta breeze this evening, before upper ridge takes control and shuts it off. As the ridge strengthens, day time highs will warm to and above average by the end of the week.
Upper ridge building over the region brought warmer temperatures to the area today.
Generally dry on Thursday with spotty morning showers as subtle ridging builds into the area.
This system is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next 12-24 hours while it slowly moves away from the FL peninsula. Temps will remain mild with lows in the mid to upper 70s with some lower 70s possible in the normally cooler spots. Potential Tropical Cyclone Number Two.
Updated forecast to reflect only a low chance of a rouge shower through midnight, then mostly dry through sunrise with muggy lows in the low/mid 70s inland to near 80 coast. Expect a resurrection of showers and isolated tstorms early Thu morning near the Gulf Stream offshore of the local coast and over Apalachee Bay under moist, convergent low level southerly flow on the western periphery of deepening Potential Tropical Cyclone #2.
This afternoon, mid/upper level ridging has relinquished its grip a touch as isolated convection has fired across the area.
An sfc cold front extends from western IL through northern MO into east central KS. The sfc cold front will move through the forecast area this evening. Less humid weather is expected to end the week with somewhat cooler temperatures, especially at night. Upper level ridging will build in from the Plains by the weekend with a warming trend. A cold front will move through in the next few hour, but is not expected to produce precipitation.
Except for some of the higher terrain features near the North Carolina border, the process of convection is having difficulty producing a shower or thunderstorm that lasts more than a minute or two. However, deep moist convection should develop more readily across the Great Valley on Thursday as the Great Lakes through Mid Mississippi Valley upper trough presses east.
927 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Quiet weather across the area overall late this evening, with a broad area of high pressure centered across the Southern Rockies nosing its way into the Tennessee Valley region.
The weather pattern will become more summerlike through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners region. This trend is expected to continue for the next couple of days as high pressure over the four corners region helps pull moisture northward through Arizona and into the eastern areas of the forecast area. The lower 700mb remain rather dry so any thunderstorms that do develop are expected to remain dry.
Going temperatures forecast looks on track for the lower 60s. Upper ridge building over the region brought warmer temperatures to the area today.
335 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 High pressure will remain across the region through the week.
515 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 An upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with high pressure centered over NM. At the surface, high pressure covers the western ND/SD/NE. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight.
416 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 All eyes on the gulf as an area of low pressure begins to organize.
Cold front will move across the area overnight, with less humid air following in its wake for Thursday.
556 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 The risk for isolated to scattered showers continues overnight, followed by more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances with a Thursday cold front. Most of the activity is located over the highest ridges, were the low level winds are supporting upslope flow, thus convection develops over the ridge tops then begins to slowly drift eastward when it becomes tall enough to get caught in the weak flow aloft.
624 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Latest radar imagery shows the actual cold front moving through the area. For tomorrow, temperatures will be in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s as high pressure builds southward into the region.
No other significant changes made, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
316 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 An upper-level ridge, centered over the Four Corners Region, will extend northward into Montana for the remainder of the week. This will bring generally dry weather and much warmer temperatures.
1029 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Currently - The Keys are in a gentle southerly flow between a developing low pressure system in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and a pressure ridge across the Bahamas, Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A forming tropical low in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge across the Bahamas, Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea will keep winds, outside of convection, light southeast to southerly.
534 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 High pressure will remain over the Four Corners region which will keep temperatures warm and dry overnight.
Cooler and less humid air arrives for Thursday with another small chance for a shower from late morning into the mid afternoon period.
Prevailing storm motion of around 15 knots to the southwest as the affects of a broad area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf become more apparent.
Quiet weather across the area overall late this evening, with a broad area of high pressure centered across the Southern Rockies nosing its way into the Tennessee Valley region.
Lows this morning will drop into the low to mid 60s and reach the mid 80s by afternoon. Over the weekend, as high pressure eventually slides east and modifies, as highs return to the low 90s. A tropical depression, Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO, is expected to develop over the north Gulf of Mexico later today.
All sites northerly sfc wind after 14z behind cold front. Cold front will move across the area overnight, with less humid air following in its wake for Thursday.
Lows should be in the mid and upper 60s with the cooler readings in northwest IA. This will mostly be in response to the lowered heat advisory criteria when 3 days or more of 95 degree or higher heat indices are expected.
330 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 A cold front will sweep through southern Indiana and central Kentucky today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Current radar reveals a broken line of showers and storms running from Washington County, Indiana southwestward to Hancock County, KY associated with a prefrontal trough. By the time diurnal heating has a destabilizing effect, the cold front should roughly be positioned along and east of the I-65 corridor. Showers and storms should diminish with the setting sun while cooler dew points settle in across the area. While temps will be solidly in the mid/upper 80s, dewpoints will be in the lower/mid 60s so the heat index should be held in check.
Generally dry conditions on Thursday with spotty morning showers as subtle ridging builds into the area.
An sfc cold front extends from western IL through northern MO into east central KS. The sfc cold front will move through the forecast area this evening. Less humid weather is expected to end the week with somewhat cooler temperatures, especially at night. Upper level ridging will build in from the Plains by the weekend with a warming trend.
Cold frontal boundary slowly making its way east and southeast across the northwest parts of central IN. observations show that dew points drop off after the passage of the front, but the cooler air is running across northwest and central IL where skies have cleared. High pressure will move in later this morning with a more pleasant air mass. Cold front should be clearing the southeast parts of central IN this morning and much of the precipitation along with it. This will allow high pressure to move in from the west and provide a drier air mass and cooler temperatures for tonight.
328 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Cold front extends from west central Oklahoma through far northeast Oklahoma early this morning, although the true "drier" air is sill across southeast Kansas. Then, overnight lows Friday morning will be a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 60s for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
253 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 (Today) A weak cold front will be moving south across the area through much of the morning hours. As the front passes, the wind shift to the north northeast will bring in some cooler air and knock temperatures back down into the low 90s by the afternoon.
With the ridge more firmly overhead on Friday, temperatures will be summery area-wide with temperatures around 90 and heat indices around 95. A broad trough over southern Canada will drape a stationary front across the region. Placement of this front is still low confidence, but for now followed consensus blends and have highlighted areas of southeast SD along and south of I-90 for the highest chances of thunderstorms.
Relatively Cooler and Less Humid Today. Otherwise, noticeably lower heat indicies are expected today with a relatively cooler and drier air mass advecting into the area. Currently, it appears the track from Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 will stay far enough to the east of our area with no appreciable impacts expected. The mid-level ridge is progged to expand eastward as the remnants of the tropical system phases with the westerlies.
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will remain in place through the period. The highest PoPs will be in the northeastern and northwestern counties. 3 inches on Friday as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the northern Gulf moves northwest.
Warm and dry for Thursday as high pressure continues to build over the area. Drier weather through Thursday as high pressure builds into southern Wyoming. Warmer temperatures with afternoon humidity falling to critical along and west of the Laramie Range. Upper level winds do not look too strong to combine with the low afternoon humidity.
Temperatures are a little cooler and there is a breeze. There is also an upper level ridge that will be building to the west of the forecast area. The winds will continue from the south and the ridge continues to the west. By Friday night, there is a weak upper level wave that moves across the ridge and brings a small chance for thunderstorms mainly to the northern part of the forecast area.
331 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning should become more numerous this afternoon with the approach of a cold front.
356 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Area of low pressure over the north central Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical depression today. West central and southwest Florida is along the eastern periphery of the large circulation of the low pressure system, with rather deep south to southeast flow over the region. The area of low pressure is expected to move slowly west and become better organized tonight and Friday.
Winds will continue to decrease this evening as low pressure moves further east and high pressure builds in. Quiet weather will continue across the CWA Thursday as ridging aloft begins to build.
High pressure will dominate the weather today with relatively light winds and drier dewpoints.
1217 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Isolated showers are expected overnight with a trough of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms are likely by this afternoon with a crossing cold front. A crossing mid level trough should result in increasing clouds and isolated showers overnight. Otherwise, building high pressure should return dry weather to the region by Friday night.
Winds will be northeast 5 to 10 KTS late tonight and Thursday as a weak cold front moves through. A cold front will push south, across Texas tonight, and initiate thunderstorms.
Upper level ridging will develop across the central plains late this week and then become flattened by July 17th, with the southern edge of the westerlies to our north.
Expect cooler and less humid conditions today as a ridge of high pressure shifts across most of the northern plains. Expect a slow warming trend and dry conditions for Fri and into the weekend, as the upper level ridge remains over most of the plains states. Latest medium range models do show that the upper ridge retrograding back to the SW for the start of the week, but this allow even warmer temps for much of the area as better downslope flow occurs, with max temps climbing into the upper 90s to near 100.
1129 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 High pressure will remain over the Four Corners region which will keep temperatures warm and dry overnight. The ridge of high pressure spinning over the Four Corners will recycle moisture into the region Friday and through the weekend. The track of this system and a deepening trough off the Pacific Northwest will determine the positioning of our persistently spinning high pressure system this weekend. The EC has the tropical system making landfall over Louisiana, pushing the ridge of high pressure slightly west. This would position the center of the high over New Mexico and allow eastern Utah and western Colorado to tap into the mainstream of moisture transport.
109 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 An isolated storm is possible through the overnight hours as a cold front sweeps across the area. Cooler and less humid air arrives for Thursday with another small chance for a shower from late morning into the mid afternoon period.
331 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 The short term forecast will be cooler today and dry! Early this morning, there may be some valley areas that develop fog but the thinking is that overall drier air and a shallow inversion with some mixing aloft will keep fog from having much time to develop or even become very widespread. Current WV imagery and 00Z RAOBs show the an upper level anticyclone over the southwestern CONUS with a broad ridge in place with the ridge axis building into through the northern Plains. The upper trough has translated east over the Great Lakes region. The surface analysis shows surface ridging and high pressure in place over the area with a northerly component to the winds for today. This should help temperatures climb back to the low 90s in spots.
Strong high pressure aloft centered near the four corners region will draw an increasingly moist air mass across Utah through the end of the week.