Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1114 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 RAP analysis shows a pronounced trough over the western CONUS promoting southwesterly flow into the region as the cold front from earlier in the evening continues to push SE across Kansas. Early morning low temperatures look to fall into the low 40s across Yuma County Colorado to the mid 50s across Graham County Kansas. Overcast skies are expected through the day which will limit diurnal heating which will make daytime highs struggle to break 70 degrees across the area with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Mainly cloudy skies are again likely for Friday as the above mentioned low pressure system moves northeast towards the region. High temperatures will be slightly warmer for Friday in the 70s due to the southwesterly flow being present.
1101 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
103 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 No changes foreseen to the inherited forecast with lots of sunshine across northern lower Michigan and above normal afternoon temperatures this afternoon as high pressure continues to encompass the region. High pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay toward Lake Huron. The southern part of this ridge breaks off, with a high centered over the eastern lakes by Friday morning. Low pressure will gradually advance into nw Ontario, as the 500mb ridge upstream gets deamplified by energy transiting southern Canada. Highs mainly within near 70f to the lower 70s, a bit cooler near Lk Huron.
130 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure remains situated to our east and continues to be the primary influence across Middle Tennessee, although this will not be so for much longer.
210 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure should keep the weather dry through much of the weekend.
145 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through the end of this week.
1134 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
Stout meridional ridging has seen negligible movement over the last 24 hours, keeping the mid-tropospheric theta-e ridge confined across central and western Minnesota.
Aside from this feature, a large and sharply amplified upper ridge which extends from near the Great Lakes to the Florida peninsula gradually broadens. The eastern portion of the area continues to be affected by subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge to the east of the area.
Little is any fog was reported this morning and HRRR is forecasting only minimal smoke in south-central Idaho this afternoon, so today will be sunny and bright and 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Next Pacific trough will bring clouds late tonight and Friday, clearing west to east late Friday and Friday evening.
The large upper ridge to our west in combination with the very large storm over the Northeastern United States and the Canadian Maritimes will last into Friday evening. Some of the warmer air to our west does start to mix with the air moving into our area Friday, so Friday will be warmer than today even so.
(This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the Big Country early this afternoon, in advance of a weak cold front and some lift ahead of an upper low/trough over the Four Corners region. Temperatures will cooler tomorrow, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
As far as precipitation goes, isolated rain/snow showers are expected over the higher terrain where it will be slightly unstable this afternoon. It will be a relatively cool day across the forecast area with highs mostly in the low 60's for the plains, and 40's in the high country. Weak ridging will build in from the east, pushing against the closed low that remains due west.
Lows in the mid to upper 60s look to be the case tonight, with warmer temperatures west of the I-65 corridor. Highs reflect this and are a tad warmer.
Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through the rest of the afternoon into this evening as showers and thunderstorms develop across portions of deep south Texas as the 500mb low/trough across the southwest United States and the 2500mb jet max across west Texas/Big Bend area continues to enhance convective development across the lower Texas coast and further inland the rest of today into tonight. Brownsville radar currently indicates some showers and thunderstorms along the lower Texas coast. Brownsville radar currently indicate isolated to scattered activity across the lower Texas coastal waters.
High pressure over WY/MT edging into the CWA leading to SC/AC thinning/dissipation this afternoon over northeast WY/western SD.
158 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
CMiller (Issued 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021) Today through Friday Night: Fog continues this morning given calm winds and strong high pressure overhead making for good enough conditions for fog despite upper level clouds. The rest of the day looks to remain fairly quiet with the strong surface and upper level ridge dominating the region and keeping the CWA dry.
235 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Disorganized convection associated with a cold front is moving through southeastern Kansas early this afternoon and should exit the area within the next couple of hours. As the air mass across most of the area remains moist into tomorrow, low chances for isolated showers will extend from tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon, particularly across southern Kansas as an upper trough begins to exit the Rockies. By tomorrow afternoon, this upper trough pivots into the central plains.
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure will build across the area through the weekend. A mid-level trough over the Northeastern U. Meanwhile, strong ridging will build over the Southeast. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s, warmer at the beaches. Aloft a mid-level trough positioned just offshore the East Coast on Friday will push eastward through the weekend, allowing ridging to build in over the southeastern states. At the surface, high pressure will continue to expand into the region through the weekend. This high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with no POPs to speak of. An upper level low will develop in the vicinity of the Middle Mississippi Valley and its associated mid level trough will progress eastward through the period. Additionally, strong high pressure is forecasted to build from the north.
1055 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
A similar setup is expected to take place tomorrow as the upper level low slowly moves eastward across the Desert Southwest. With the added cloud cover and precipitation expected tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will remain mild with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
Gradients expected to be similar Friday morning but with less upper support so winds should be lighter by about 30%, mostly capping out in the low to mid 30s. However, there's always that caveat that in these events, especially on day 2 with a warmer air mass in place, temps can rocket up quickly in the morning to similar levels as the previous day before the sea breeze arrive. So our confidence in the site specific temperatures isn't good tomorrow but in general it should be slightly cooler at the coast and similar to slightly warmer inland.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 85 65 84 65 / 0 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 83 61 82 63 / 0 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 83 62 81 64 / 0 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 81 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 10 10.
This pattern of occasional rounds of showers/storms will persist through Friday afternoon/evening, as will the low and mid-cloud coverage over most of the CWA. Rain showers associated with the main low over Nebraska have been tracking northward into portions of central South Dakota most of the day, but have had trouble making it much further north than Highway 12 due to encountering dry air associated with high pressure to the northwest. As the high pushes into the area Friday night, will see the precipitation come to an end over the majority of the region, but may see a few light showers linger over the far eastern CWA.
High pressure building over the region will bring dry and warming conditions through the weekend.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Look for warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions across NE Montana over the next couple of days. Upper ridging is expected to strengthen across the wester U. Longer term ensembles eventually show the ridge breaking down or shifting east sometime near the end of the first week in October as a deep Pacific trough sets up. As this results, look for markedly cooler and more fall-like temperatures.
906 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure will build across the area through the weekend. Dry conditions will prevail overnight with lows ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the lower-mid 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Aloft a mid-level trough positioned just offshore the East Coast on Friday will push eastward through the weekend, allowing ridging to build in over the southeastern states. At the surface, high pressure will continue to expand into the region through the weekend. This high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with no POPs to speak of. An upper level low will develop in the vicinity of the Middle Mississippi Valley and its associated mid level trough will progress eastward through the period. Additionally, strong high pressure is forecasted to build from the north.
An area of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will provide dry and warm weather with temperatures climbing a few degrees each day through the weekend.
An upper low will drift south across central and southern Utah tonight. Weak high pressure will follow, allowing for a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend.
657 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 (This evening through Friday) A cold front + storm outflow has passed through all but the southeast quarter or so of our forecast area.
A cold front will continue to track through the area this afternoon.
High pressure remains situated to our east and continues to be the primary influence across Middle Tennessee, although this will not be so for much longer.
640 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
Mid to high clouds will increase overnight into Friday as a weak trough moves inland.
958 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
626 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Disorganized convection associated with a cold front is moving through southeastern Kansas early this afternoon and should exit the area within the next couple of hours. As the air mass across most of the area remains moist into tomorrow, low chances for isolated showers will extend from tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon, particularly across southern Kansas as an upper trough begins to exit the Rockies. By tomorrow afternoon, this upper trough pivots into the central plains.
High temperatures tomorrow should be in the low to middle 80s. Upper level ridging extends from the western Great Lakes into the SE US.
757 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Increased ridging across the East Coast with high pressure centered just to our north. The ridge axis will move offshore towards the end of the weekend and moisture will begin to increase from the west.
814 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
708 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure centered just east of the region will maintain VFR conditions with mainly clear skies (outside of a thin veil of cirrus). Narrow high magnitude ridge axis anchored just upstream will ease eastward into the area while dampening with time to finish the week. Pleasant conditions with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Readings should dip into the lower to middle 60s for overnight lows.
654 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 A cold front is steadily approaching the area bringing with it cloudy skies and increased chances for precipitation. The front attempts to push eastward, but a large high pressure over the SE CONUS stifles its movement.
653 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Our region is divided between a warm/sunny day underneath upper ridging across the east and a rainy/cloudy day across southeast Missouri associated with an upper disturbance. As the upper low over the southwest U.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving east throughout the day ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
The deep upper level trough is continuing to trek eastward towards our region, and can be expected to arrive towards the end of the weekend. This low pressure has already brought some rainfall into our area, and will continue to increase precipitation chances over the next few days. Increased cloud cover and low level moisture will keep temperatures mild, with overnight lows around the low/mid 60s.
Save for a few cirrus, skies have been clear with temperatures slowly falling into the lower 80s with dewpoints at or just under 70F.
The high temperatures trended 15 to nearly 25 degrees hotter than yesterday for the islands, coasts and western valleys. There is less upper level support, as the upper level low is forecast to slowly track east, relaxing the gradient which drove our gusty north winds at higher elevations.
317 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 For Friday and into the weekend high pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic States giving us easterly flow.
In it's wake, a rain-cooled airmass was left behind, reinforced by the cold front, which moved into the Texas Hill Country. A few locations may briefly reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon with any breaks in the cloud cover, but confidence was low in this occurring. Based on the location of the upper low for support aloft, and the PWATs expected to be 1.
We start out with a large upper level low along the east coast, just north of Maine with Hurricane Sam out over the Atlantic. Closer to home, an upper level ridge extends from Florida to west Kentucky up to Wisconsin. To our southwest, an upper level low over the 4 corners area and a trough along the Alaskan coastline. Over the next couple of days, the upper level low in the northeast essentially remains nearly stationary. The ridge over the eastern part of our CWA weakens as the upper level low over the 4 corners area lifts out and opens up over the plains.
Clouds are expected to begin to stream into the area from the southwest as the low advances further to the east. The potential for rainfall looks to increase after 18Z Friday as the low moves east.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge extends from the Southeast into the Ohio River Valley and to the Great Lakes today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure is centered near the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. There will be a slight chance for showers in the higher elevations of Southwest North Carolina and extreme Southeast Tennessee this afternoon due to increasing moisture and upslope forcing. Allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 80s which is slightly above normal for this time of year.
Surface flow will continue to slowly shift more southerly vs easterly as the high pressure that was in place weakens and continues to move further to the east. Temperatures will be about the same as yesterday with most areas rising into the low to mid 80s. Conditions don't look favorable for fog during the overnight hours tomorrow as low and mid level clouds advect into the area ahead of the low pressure system, especially as winds creep up as the pressure gradient begins to increase.
Water vapor loop shows the main upper ridge to our west, with one vort max lifting through central MN and another coming up through eastern SD.
437 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure builds across the region today and into the weekend.
However, yesterdays cold front currently stretched across far eastern Oklahoma may lift back into our area as a warm front. Not sure precisely how far into our area the warm front may lift, but can't completely rule out some surface based convection this afternoon mainly across southeast Oklahoma. The overall best chances will be for elevated storm POPs this evening across western Oklahoma as the main trough over the higher plains starts coming through, and then more widespread tonight across much of our area.
As the upper ridge starts a very slow deamplification, thicknesses will be slightly lower this afternoon than yesterday afternoon.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 65 84 65 79 / 10 10 20 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 82 63 81 / 10 10 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 81 64 79 / 10 10 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 54 81 58 81 / 0 0 10 10 50.
335 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Per current surface analysis, a surface boundary/trough remains situated roughly along the Interstate 29 corridor very early this morning. Much of the rainfall overnight occurred out ahead of this feature where the low/mid level theta e advection was maximized - through northwestern IA and southwestern MN.
Weak northwesterly flow will begin the period but that will give way to ridging as a dome of high pressure builds across the southern Colorado.
Today and tonight: Early-morning, water-vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis depict a closed low in the mid levels over the southern Rockies with a broad zone of cyclonic flow extending east of the low into the Great Plains. In the low levels, mesoanalysis placed a weak low over eastern NE (in the vicinity of KOMA) with an associated trough/confluence axis extending from eastern SD through the low into eastern KS. For now, we will indicate highs in the lower to mid 70s, except over our far northwest counties where readings may only reach the mid to upper 60s.
425 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered to the northeast of the area with a stalled frontal boundary running southeast from central Indiana through the Cumberland Valley. A decent ridge to valley split is underway with readings near 50 in the eastern sheltered spots to around 60 on the hills. Winds are light throughout eastern Kentucky while dewpoints are running in the low 50s northeast to the mid 50s in the southwest. They all depict the breakdown of the lingering ridging through the area today in the face of energy seeping in at mid levels from the west.
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An upper level low circulating across ncntl Nebraska this morning will lift very slowly north today. The short term model blend suggested a continued chance of showers as the low lifts north and this appears to be consistent with the latest radar trends in that region. The upper low has locked in an area of h850-700mb midlevel moisture and this is producing fairly widespread cloudiness across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Some clearing is expected across wrn Nebraska this afternoon as the upper low moves away. The temperature forecast tonight leans on the warmer short term model blend plus bias correction for lows in the 40s and 50s. The cooler readings are expected across the west.
1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure overhead will allow for dry and seasonal weather into the first half of this weekend.
333 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure across the region today will result in one more day of dry and warm weather.
The upper low is progged to continue to slowly move to the east through today, which will allow for additional moisture and lift to move into the area later this afternoon into this evening. The upper low will begin to open into a wave later this evening and start to lift to the north and northeast.
1153 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure centered just east of the region will maintain VFR conditions with mainly clear skies (outside of a thin veil of cirrus). Narrow high magnitude ridge axis anchored just upstream will ease eastward into the area while dampening with time to finish the week. Pleasant conditions with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1051 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 (This evening through Friday) A cold front + storm outflow has passed through all but the southeast quarter or so of our forecast area.
323 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Mostly sunny skies today with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday but still seasonably cool. Cold air advection weakens late this afternoon with warm air advection tonight leading to much warmer conditions tomorrow.
308 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Increased ridging across the East Coast with high pressure centered just to our north. The ridge axis will move offshore towards the end of the weekend and moisture will begin to increase from the west.
The lower level ridge is centered over the southeastern United States and sits under the northeastern lobe of a sharp upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast - Through today and the weekend, a midlatitude trough over the northeastern States will swing out to sea. As a result, lower level ridging in our area will weaken considerably.
245 AM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A rather benign flow pattern with high pressure aloft will lead to a continuation of mostly clear skies and dry conditions over the region. Temperatures will stay a bit above seasonal levels in the lower to middle 70s.
A ridge axis remain parked through the Great Lakes with troughing out west, which has slowly evolved into more of a cutoff low with multiple embedded low amplitude perturbations. Periods of shower and storm activity occurred within this area yesterday, but dry air recycling around the upper ridge mitigated any precip into eastern Iowa.
117 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will build across the area through the weekend. The remnants of the weak cold front will lie near the Santee River. Aloft a mid-level trough positioned just offshore the East Coast on Friday will push eastward through the weekend, allowing ridging to build in over the southeastern states. At the surface, high pressure will continue to expand into the region through the weekend. This high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with no POPs to speak of. An upper level low will develop in the vicinity of the Middle Mississippi Valley and its associated mid level trough will progress eastward through the period.
An upper level low is currently located across New Mexico. Mid to upper 60s will be possible in this region with cloud cover increasing from the southwest ahead of the upper level low. Dynamic lift associated with the low will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms developing from the southwest and the drifting to the east and northeast.
308 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A messy upper level flow pattern is developing early this morning as the 500mb ridge breaks down, with split flow developing upstream over western CONUS. Leaned toward the high end of guidance due to temps consistently overachieving the last few days.
Quiet weather continues for the short term as high pressure holds over the region.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning with light southeast flow in place locally. This high is progged to shift towards the mid Atlantic Coast through the day with veering boundary layer flow across the forecast area. Temperatures inland ahead of the lake breeze are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, but the cooler marine layer will result in 70s immediately along the lake front and cap high temps in the lower 80s just inland.
1144 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Disorganized convection associated with a cold front is moving through southeastern Kansas early this afternoon and should exit the area within the next couple of hours. As the air mass across most of the area remains moist into tomorrow, low chances for isolated showers will extend from tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon, particularly across southern Kansas as an upper trough begins to exit the Rockies. By tomorrow afternoon, this upper trough pivots into the central plains.