Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS TEMPS COOL TONIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND COOLER. WITH A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH AGAIN WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING TO A WAVE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER TEXAS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS REACHING OUR NORTHERN AREA BY THE EVENING. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY WITH STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS WE ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE THEY DO AGREE ON A S/W RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
NARROW UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH WA AND OREGON WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERN IDAHO TONIGHT. RIDGE WILL BE IN EASTERN IDAHO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW JUST OFF THE WA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN THAT POSITION THE LOW WILL CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO OUR ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
214 AM PDT SUN MAY 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY WITH PATCHIER NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
448 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
HETTINGER WAS REPORTING SNOW AND MOBRIDGE HAD SWITCHED BACK OVER TO RAIN.
121 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. MINUTE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE CURRENT MODEL DATA STILL BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY GENERATE FROM THE LAKE-BREEZE OR MOISTURE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK. WITH A RETURN OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA TODAY. FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE RIM NORTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
300 AM PDT SUN MAY 10 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
The lower Ohio Valley will remain in southwesterly flow aloft through tomorrow as a trough moves east across the northern Plains. The best chance for storms will be from late morning through mid afternoon with the highest coverage north of interstate 64. The better chance for storms, some possibly severe, will come on Monday as the cold front approaches the area during the afternoon.
337 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 GEORGIA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY WEAK RIDGING. SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. 31 GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE THE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY.
950 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH.
839 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD DEBRIS CLOUD LIMITING INSOLATION, AS WELL AS MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEKEND. AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS PRODUCING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS PUSHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALREADY SEEING A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE LOWER ACADIANA COAST WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.
618 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ CENTER OF UPPER HIGH IS NOW OVER TX WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM KS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN US. AT 230 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY.
507 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NUDGES EASTWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SMOKIES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER OVERALL ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TO A VERY LARGE EXTENT THIS PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND THE STATE AROUND 5K FT WHILE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
408 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLODS AND PATCHY FOG.
1101 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE HIGH WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE WEST ALLOWING A TROUGH TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE UNDER THE HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK.
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND WE ALREADY HAD A CHANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THERE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY. I'M NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH IT HOLDING TOGETHER AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ITS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM GROWTH AS IT NEARS THE STATE. THE STORY OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
1034 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY THEN DISSIPATES TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOT TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ERN WY INTO WRN SD. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER BC AND THE HUDSON BAY. WITH UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TX PAN. ON THE LARGE SCALE THE UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SCNTRL/SERN US THROUGH 12Z TUE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER BC MOVES TO NERN MT. THE WEAK S/W TROF APPROACHES AS AN 850-MB THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA WITH A LEE SFC TROF OVER ERN WY. ON MONDAY A S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER WRN MT. ON MONDAY NGT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA WITH 25-45KT 850-MB WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNSEASONABLE DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY.
Watching two areas of storms early this morning, the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. For now it looks like most forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these colliding features there's the definite possibility that storms with heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. Assuming ample sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in the 100 to 105 range.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/LAND BREEZE FOCUSING CONVECTION SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS PRODUCING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS PUSHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALREADY SEEING A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE LOWER ACADIANA COAST WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Another hot day is forecast across West Central Texas as an upper level ridge remains centered over the area. Upper level ridge remains in place for Monday so hot temperatures will continue. Ridge does shift just enough to allow thickness values to ease by the middle of the upcoming week and allow afternoon highs to decrease a few degrees, or at least keep highs below the 100 degree mark for most areas. Weekend rain chances still look possible, albeit slim, as the ridge shifts to the west and places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND INSOLATION WARMS UP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, THE HEAT INDICES WILL GAIN BECOME UNCOMFORTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
1146 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CU POPPING NOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FILLING IN QUICKLY. POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE STILL LOOKING OKAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED COVERAGE AT ANY POINT. BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.
SKIES AGAIN ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. RAISED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FINALLY MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. WITH THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR THIS PERIOD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM MID 80S TO NEARLY 90.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE AND FOCUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
Our area lies on the eastern side of stacked high pressure along the southern CONUS, which will keep us warm and dry with mostly clear skies.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LEE TROUGH WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO CARBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
943 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY AS JET ENERGY POURING DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE THIS MORNING. THIS LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS PUSH IS DUE TO CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA AND INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS FROM TIME TO TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW FAR NORTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST CANADA TODAY DROPPING SOUTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFYING.
HRRR STILL HAS SOME CONVECTION ENTERING NW FCST AREA 22Z-23Z PERIOD BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING PER WATER VAPOR SHOULD KEEP IT A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR EAST.
949 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.
1121 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N TX AND LA TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.
BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM TEMPS AT H85-H7 KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS CAPPED.
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN SRN IDAHO ZONES ALONG COLD FRONT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY WILL DROP MAX TEMPS TO THE 60S TO MID 70S. AND EVEN A LITTLE SNOW ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.
740 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS A BIT MAINLY EAST. WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE ZONES ARE UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT A WEAK LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FROM ERN MT SOUTHWARD TO WRN SD AND ERN WY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW FAR NORTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST CANADA TODAY DROPPING SOUTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFYING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN U. THE TROUGH'S AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THIS TROUGH MOVING INTO MONTANA MONDAY. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. IMPULSES OF ENERGY STREAMING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AS OBSERVED IN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST.
GIVEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. WHILE DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NW GA ZONES WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERNS.
HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ON ALL THE MODELS AS THE 500 MB RIDGING LOOKS TO KEEP THE RAIN AT BAY WEST OF THE STATE.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND INSOLATION WARMS UP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, THE HEAT INDICES WILL GAIN BECOME UNCOMFORTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN DRIFT EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the morning hours.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF SMOKE NEAR THE LOWELL WILDFIRE EAST OF GRASS VALLEY DRAINING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY NEAR YUBA CITY.
THIS PUSH IS DUE TO CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA AND INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THIS COMPLEX ARE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IA NEAR THE HIGHEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. BUT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER HIGH OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD REBUILD BACK TO THE WEST AGAIN BUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS WELL WHILE IT DISSIPATES. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY MID- WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH AND HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY.
LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING JUST WEST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY ACTION TURNING EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM ORIGIN IN THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE GONE WITH NEIGHBORS ON REMOVAL OF POPS. LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. BEST CONVERGENCE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH LEADING WAVE SHEARING OVER THE RIDGE. LOWS IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW CAP WILL HANG UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A AND WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
757 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY.
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN U. THE TROUGH'S AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THIS TROUGH MOVING INTO MONTANA MONDAY. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
958 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS A LITTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NO CHANGE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ON MONDAY. THE HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE.
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/.
THIS WAS ALONG A SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM CONUSNEST REFLECTIVITY'S ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GENERATING A NARROW LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT STALLS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STRENGTHENING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOTTER TODAY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS H85 TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
254 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING 30-40 MPH. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS. MONDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THE LOW DEW POINTS OVER THE WEST TODAY WILL STILL BE THERE MONDAY.
COOLEST JUST ABOVE FREEZING CENTRAL AND E AND UPPER 30S W. BUT COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TREKKING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHWARDS. AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING OFF YESTERDAYS RECORD WARMTH. STILL WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE HIGH IN THE LOW 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE REASON FOR THE EASTWARD SHIFT IS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS TODAY.