Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
123 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A warm front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will cross the area Thursday. The cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine Thursday night into Friday.
Deep moisture does already return on Sun as inverted SFC/LL trough axis sets up across the mid-state ahead of fairly deep incoming upper trough. It will take the balance of Sun night/Mon for this sharp upper trough to past east but that is not the end of it. A tight closed upper low will take several days to push across eastern Canada and that looks to keep a broad ML/UL trough over the eastern US well into late week.
The moisture across the the high plains would set off another round of storm activity and it appears there is some upper level support to carry the storm activity a bit farther east into wrn Nebraska late tonight. The POP forecast, in general, is on the low side of the model consensus favoring low or isolated POPs; or nothing at all compared to the model blend which shows scattered shower and thunderstorm activity today, tonight and Friday.
The storm activity took a brief late this morning, but with some clearing in the clouds, the advancing cold front, and effective boundary leftover from this mornings convection, we are seeing new storm development in our western counties and out in central KS. For the most part, storms are expected to diminish/exit the area in the late morning as the LLJ weakens and high pressure starts moving in from the north.
1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An upper level wave in the right entrance region of the jet will shift southeast through the evening, allowing a ridge of cool high pressure at the surface to shift south. Along with clearing skies the lighter winds care of the high pressure will support a good radiational drop in temperatures tonight. Thursday should prove to be a very nice day as high pressure remains in place just east of the area.
349 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Another benign weather day is expected as Canadian high pressure dominates the region.
930 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A cooling trend will occur Thursday and Friday as upper level low pressure moves through the western United States. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO After a hot day today in the deserts, including 117 at Thermal, there will be some cooling due to temperatures aloft being lower as a broad trough of low pressure moves into the western US and the ridge that was over SoCal retreats west into the Pacific.
301 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Zonal flow aloft will be overhead today with the upper ridge continuing to move westward. An upper level trough axis will be draped overhead. And in this trough axis will be a mid level moisture plume which is evident on water vapor imagery. Winds aloft will back to the southwest on Friday ahead of a weak short wave trough.
407 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A cold front will drop south through the region overnight with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms along it.
323 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Early morning showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain continue as a result of a slowly progressing cold front, low level jet, right entrance region of the upper jet, and a very moisture airmass. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, topping out in the low to mid 80s. There is typical uncertainty with placement and amounts of rain, and also for driving features such as strength of the low level jet, but another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for more southern portions of the area.
Mid level ridging continues to amplify to our west tonight, continuing our quiet weather conditions. Overnight lows will remain cool east of I-29 in the lower 50s, while bottoming out in the upper 50s to lower 60s west of I-29.
A cold front in Missouri will shift southward tonight and Thursday and reach the Arkansas border on Thursday. With more clouds and rain in the area, temperatures will be cooler and do not see a need for a Heat Advisory for Thursday.
250 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through Friday.
1039 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Pleasant, early fall-like, weather continues into Friday as a broad trough over the central US keeps seasonably cool temperatures aloft over the Upper Midwest, and high pressure at the surface ensures dry conditions. Lows should drop into the upper 40s across central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin and low to mid 50s elsewhere, although cloud cover streaming off of Lake Superior make keep temperatures a few degrees warmer across farther east into Wisconsin. Nothing to complain about tomorrow weather-wise, with highs in the low to mid 70s and light winds. The longer term concerns remain timing of incoming western CONUS trough over the weekend and continued cool weather pattern.
1053 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The high clouds are keeping temperatures from dropping too fast this evening. High pressure northwest of the Great lakes will slowly move over the area through Thursday night. Breezy southeast winds are expected to develop this weekend as the high slides east of the area. The cooler airmass in place on Thursday will result in quite a bit of diurnal CU redeveloping.
139 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Upper-level analysis shows ridging over the Rockies, with a trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, ahead of the approaching trough, winds are southeasterly at 5 to 10 kts, and temperatures are in the 60s. As the trough continues to approach the region, a tightening pressure gradient will result in breezy southeasterly winds today. Late this afternoon/early evening, models continue to show thunderstorms developing across northeastern WY along the cold front, and then spreading into northwestern SD overnight. The upper trough will slowly cross the northern plains through the weekend. The low-level trough and its associated cold front will make it about halfway through the CWA Friday, resulting in cooler temps (70s) over the western half of the CWA and warmer temps (80s) to the east.
1144 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through the rest of the workweek. By this weekend, an upper-level low will cross north of the area, helping to drag an associated cold front into the forecast area. in the low to middle 70s.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a large ridge axis poking north into Canada from the Rocky's, with a synoptic level trough sweeping through the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Next best chance for widespread stormy activity will arrive early next work week as a large trough digs into the Plains, sweeping a cold front through the region, which will keep temperatures seasonally cool through next work week.
Gusty wind continues to impact the area as the cold front progresses southeastward through the Treasure Valley. Cooler temperatures anticipated tomorrow. A sharp upper trough entering the Pacific NW will drive a cold front through the region late this evening. The trough pushes into eastern Idaho on Thursday with breezy and cool conditions in its wake. Temperatures will warm to near normal on Friday as a weak ridge builds into the area on westerly flow.
338 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A weak upper ridge is over the region with upper troughs moving over the northern half of the country. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, except maybe a degree or two cooler in some locations.
Aloft, a fairly deep trough axis across the area this morning, will steadily shift east tonight. Friday, upper-level ridging will begin building into the area from west to east.
326 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Cold front now stretches across northern OK with scattered showers and storms continuing across southern portions of the forecast area. This feature will push a cold front through the forecast area on Mon and will allow shower and storm chances to remain in the forecast. Low clouds are expected to develop over parts of central KS in a few hours as cooler air continues to spill-in from the northeast encountering better moisture.
The High-res guidance scatters out the cloud cover and warms temps up a bit higher than the earlier forecast. and seeing as it was too cool yesterday, did follow some of the warmer guidance for todays highs. Winds will become southeasterly with moisture streaming back to the north across the High Plains. Most of the day is expected to be dry, but some thunderstorms may develop tonight across western portions of the area as activity rolls off the High Plains and moisture transport increases.
325 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 TODAY: Persistent easterly flow across the region with the Atlantic high pressure continuing to dominate.
514 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Upper-level analysis shows ridging over the Rockies, with a trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, ahead of the approaching trough, winds are southeasterly at 5 to 10 kts, and temperatures are in the 60s. As the trough continues to approach the region, a tightening pressure gradient will result in breezy southeasterly winds today. Late this afternoon/early evening, models continue to show thunderstorms developing across northeastern WY along the cold front, and then spreading into northwestern SD overnight. The upper trough will slowly cross the northern plains through the weekend. The low-level trough and its associated cold front will make it about halfway through the CWA Friday, resulting in cooler temps (70s) over the western half of the CWA and warmer temps (80s) to the east.
The synoptic cold front, in association with a digging upper trough over the Great Lakes, lies across southern NE and IA this morning.
350 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The main focus in the short term will be a cold frontal passage today, which continues to trend a little slower than previous forecasts have reflected. Theta-e ridge over the region this afternoon and evening reflective of decent instability, Bufkit soundings show CAPE/Shear profiles supportive of multicellular, supercellular, and perhaps some linear structures capable of hail and strong winds, but remaining on the marginal side. Look for cooler conditions on Friday into the weekend behind the frontal passage, with unsettled conditions remaining at times.
The low level forcing i. The moisture across the the high plains would set off another round of storm activity and it appears there is some upper level support to carry the storm activity a bit farther east into wrn Nebraska late tonight. The POP forecast, in general, is on the low side of the model consensus favoring low or isolated POPs; or nothing at all compared to the model blend which shows scattered shower and thunderstorm activity today, tonight and Friday.
641 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Light northerly winds will prevail through the day with high pressure building into the northern Great Lakes. Last evening's cold front has cleared SE Michigan and will remain semi-stationary south of the Ohio border today. The air mass behind the front is much cooler and drier than what has been in place recently. 850 mb temps are progged to fall to the 8 to 10 C range by this afternoon, resulting in a cooler day in the 70s. High pressure expands over the northern Great Lakes from the late week into the weekend and keeps conditions cool and quiet.
Latest satellite imagery indicates high clouds spreading SEwd across interior NorCal as upper level trough moves through the PacNW. Therefore, cloud cover has kept current temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Above normal temperatures are expected through the forecast period as the upper trough exits the region, and strong high pressure builds over NorCal. Northerly winds will develop behind the trough, boosting high temperatures a degree or two compared to yesterday's readings. Valley locations should see temperatures in the mid 90s to around 104, while highs in the low 70s to mid 80s are expected over the mountains.
A mid-level trough can be seen on analysis charts situated in northern Missouri which is helping fuel showers and storms over Kansas and Missouri. The mid-level trough will move downstream and into the Mid-South and break down the ridging that we've seen over the area for a while now. The longwave pattern will become more meridional over the next several days with a deepening trough over the eastern half of CONUS. This will allow a slowly moving cold front to drag south over the region. The cold front will be the focus for showers and storms through the weekend as it moves very slowly over the region. The cold front will stall to the north in southern Missouri and southern Kentucky before finally passing through the CWA on Friday morning/afternoon.
With moisture increasing and an upper level trough approaching, expect scattered showers/storms will feature throughout much of the TAF cycle.
An elongated, north-south oriented trough over the Bahamas today will move westward and into our region on Friday and Friday night. Thereafter, medium range guidance and many ensemble members indicate the lower pressure will slide into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico before lifting northward. In wake of the departing trough of low pressure, a high pressure cell over the archipelago of Cuba will lift northward into the Straits of Florida, and then into the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. From mid morning through mid afternoon, conditions appear favorable for island cloud line development, with the highest chances for sub-VFR and thunderstorm impacts occurring at EYW, and somewhat lesser chances at MTH.
705 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Early morning showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain continue as a result of a slowly progressing cold front, low level jet, right entrance region of the upper jet, and a very moisture airmass. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, topping out in the low to mid 80s. There is typical uncertainty with placement and amounts of rain, and also for driving features such as strength of the low level jet, but another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for more southern portions of the area.
For 00Z Aviation discussion below Another benign weather day is expected as Canadian high pressure dominates the region.
/issued 338 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ A weak upper ridge is over the region with upper troughs moving over the northern half of the country. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, except maybe a degree or two cooler in some locations.
The main story is an upper level trough of low pressure and its attendant surface cool front pushing through the region. In the wake of the trough passage we may see slightly better humidity recovery over areas north of Interstate 80 tonight. That will not last long as a ridge begins to build from the west starting Friday.
619 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 [Through 12Z Friday] Based on the position of the ridge most of the precipitation will be west of the area today. A western Atlantic ridge nudging into the northeastern Gulf with some moisture around the nose of the axis to the west will increase PoPs in the western portion of Panhandle and southern AL. Elsewhere, PoPs will be lower where subsidence and some dry air is present along the ridge axis. Highs in the low 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
A cold front has slowly been making its way across the Northern Rockies over night. A plume of precipitation associated with the trough will be progressing through the region this morning. This front is also ushering in a significantly colder airmass, so temperatures today will be around 20 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. A circulation at the bottom of the trough moves across Lemhi county into southwest Montana this afternoon which will kick off a round of thunderstorms.
654 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Cooler conditions are on tap across central Illinois through the weekend, though today will still be rather humid in areas near and south of I-72. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep our weather dry from Friday through the weekend. Cooler and less humid weather is on tap with a persistent east/northeast flow. The focus for any rain will involve the upper trough currently seen in the Pacific Northwest on water vapor imagery.
Today through Tonight Current WV satellite shows a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft, with multiple disturbances seen in the flow crossing the Rockies and a low amplitude trough located roughly across the far western Panhandles. Lead trough will slowly translate eastward today with additional waves breaking across the Rockies behind it late this afternoon. Combined with lingering clouds and cooler temperatures aloft, this should mean high temperatures generally around 90 today. Additionally, temperatures are a bit cooler aloft, so marginally severe hail is not out of the question with the stronger updrafts.
700 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Cold front now stretches across northern OK with scattered showers and storms continuing across southern portions of the forecast area. This feature will push a cold front through the forecast area on Mon and will allow shower and storm chances to remain in the forecast.
A cold front will continue to move through south central and southeastern Montana with current timing between 1 to 2 pm, slightly later than models were indicating. Winds will continue from the northwest which will help keep Fridays temperatures on the cooler side before shifting back to a southeasterly flow late Friday. Fridays temperatures will remain 10 degrees below what we see today, struggling to reach the high 70s.
1003 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 East central Florida is currently in a deep onshore flow with an inverted trough over the Bahamas and the Atlantic Ridge axis to the north. Believe the higher moisture and stronger onshore flow will produce a better chance of showers over the Atlantic making it onshore so will bump up chances slightly to 30% from Melbourne southward with this morning's update. Favorable boating conds continue as the Bermuda Ridge axis anchored along the FL/GA border generates a light to gentle E/SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc.
628 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through Friday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 88 71 / 50 50 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 71 85 69 / 50 50 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 85 67 / 50 60 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 69 82 64 / 60 60 80 50.
A few more clouds along with slightly cooler temperatures are expected today as a frontal boundary moves through northern Nevada.
/issued 301 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ Zonal flow aloft will be overhead today with the upper ridge continuing to move westward. An upper level trough axis will be draped overhead. And in this trough axis will be a mid level moisture plume which is evident on water vapor imagery. Winds aloft will back to the southwest on Friday ahead of a weak short wave trough.
A weak shear axis lingers over Texas within a much weaker Subtropical Ridge over the southern tier of states while a weak mid level impulse drifts north over the western Gulf of Mexico.
A trough currently located across central Montana will move east while high pressure over the Pacific will continue to move over the area. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with most Valley locations in the upper 90s and low 100s. The high continues to expand into NorCal through the weekend keeping the forecast dry with above average temperatures.
The upper trough supporting the front has also moved off to the east, and precipitation has ended over the area. An upper ridge will build in today along with a thermal trough offshore, and skies will clear just about everywhere over the land areas. Short waves moving over the top of the ridge will keep it from building this weekend, and this will put the brakes on the warming trend.
Main adjustment to the forecast is to keep up with the continued slowing trend in the passage of the cold front through eastern Montana this evening. This slowdown should result in a broadening of the higher rainfall amounts, as well as a westward push of the precipitation gradient from Glasgow to somewhere in Phillips County. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The main focus in the short term will be a cold frontal passage today, which continues to trend a little slower than previous forecasts have reflected. Theta-e ridge over the region this afternoon and evening reflective of decent instability, Bufkit soundings show CAPE/Shear profiles supportive of multicellular, supercellular, and perhaps some linear structures capable of hail and strong winds, but remaining on the marginal side. Look for cooler conditions on Friday into the weekend behind the frontal passage, with unsettled conditions remaining at times.
152 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 [Through 18Z Friday] High pressure across the Tri-State region will reduce shower and thunderstorm activity today with isolated coverage mostly along the sea breeze. A western Atlantic ridge nudging into the northeastern Gulf with some moisture around the nose of the axis to the west will increase PoPs in the western portion of Panhandle and southern AL. Elsewhere, PoPs will be lower where subsidence and some dry air is present along the ridge axis. Highs in the low 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
236 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Widespread showers today will ease this evening as an upper level trough continues to make its way east into central Montana and northern Wyoming. Most of the northern Rockies will dry out by about 9pm, however a closed low separates from the main trough over the northwest corner of Wyoming early Friday morning. In the wake of todayâs trough, zonal flow sets up and brings pleasant weather on Friday with temperatures near average.
155 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight, as a cold front advances from west to east.
Increased cloud coverage today will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the southern half of southeast Texas.
A cold front is near the Missouri border and good chances of thunderstorms are expected south of the front in Arkansas this afternoon. Today Through Friday Night The heat is going to take a break in the near term as a big ridge of high pressure builds well to the west, and a weak cold front sags into Arkansas from Missouri.
1050 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Upper-level analysis shows ridging over the Rockies, with a trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, ahead of the approaching trough, winds are southeasterly at 5 to 10 kts, and temperatures are in the 60s. As the trough continues to approach the region, a tightening pressure gradient will result in breezy southeasterly winds today. Late this afternoon/early evening, models continue to show thunderstorms developing across northeastern WY along the cold front, and then spreading into northwestern SD overnight. The upper trough will slowly cross the northern plains through the weekend. The low-level trough and its associated cold front will make it about halfway through the CWA Friday, resulting in cooler temps (70s) over the western half of the CWA and warmer temps (80s) to the east.
A cold front is marching through the region this afternoon. We'll see cooler temps behind the front for the next several days as the flow gradually turns northwesterly. But the cooler temperatures today will mitigate humidity levels so will hold off on headlines.
302 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Sporadic rain and a few storms continue to bubble up across the Mid State this afternoon, with the highest rain totals so far staying north of I-40.
A cold front is marching through the region this afternoon. We'll see cooler temps behind the front for the next several days as the flow gradually turns northwesterly. Strong W to SW winds will continue through sunset this eve post-cold front at KPIH/KIDA/KBYI, and may be a bit on the slow side to drop off (between 8 PM and 11 PM). The cold front is east of the area, with widespread clouds, much cooler temps, and much higher RH values now observed across SE Idaho, and continued strong W/SW winds especially in the Snake Plain.