Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight the clouds remain and winds will be shifting to E and SE by this time tomorrow making for a warmer trend into midweek.
611 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure will build over the region Today, shifting off the East Coast on Wednesday.
405 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows broad ridging across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains.
Widespread fog and low stratus is also impacting much of the region with this low level moisture advection, becoming dense at times especially over the near shore waters and along the immediate coast. Todays highs will range from the lower to middle 60s followed by lows in the lower to middle 50s inland and the upper 50s along area beaches.
This ridge was producing light winds across the region. Pacific moisture spilling up and over the western ridge kept skies mostly cloudy overnight. For tonight, the low level moisture will quickly increase this morning. As a result, confidence remains low on the chances of freezing drizzle. On Wednesday morning, some weak omega develops in the low level moisture layer north of Interstate 94. With the temperatures initially below freezing, there may be some patchy freezing drizzle in this area.
High winds possible across southeast New Mexico and much of An upper ridge of high pressure will move east today and be replaced by southwesterly flow aloft by this afternoon through tonight. A surface lee low/trough will intensify this afternoon and tonight across the western high plains and temperatures should soar to much above normal levels as low level thermal ridging develops in downslope flow. Will continue the High Wind Watch for those areas. Decided to extend the High Wind Watch further east to include Lea county New Mexico, the Permian Basin along and west of a Lamesa, Midland, Rankin line late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will still be much above normal despite the flattening thermal ridge as strong downslope flow and minimal cloud cover should help boost temperatures higher than guidance.
By late tonight, the Arctic cold front will be to the Devil Lake basin, ready to usher in cold air for Wednesday.
304 AM MST Tue Jan 9 2018 A broad upper ridge covers much of the CONUS this morning with upper troughs over both the east and west coasts. A strong cold front will cross the forecast area during the day on Wednesday with gusty northwest winds, falling temperatures and snow and areas of blowing snow.
Models holding onto the lower ceilings through this afternoon and not as confident in exact heights, but as the upper low becomes cut off over the northern Gulf of Mexico by this afternoon and shifts southward toward Cuba through tomorrow morning. Short term models in good agreement that the upper low will open and weaken, keeping much of the wraparound moisture south of the forecast area and have opted for a relatively dry forecast. This pattern should reinforce the lower ceilings today and tomorrow as well, although I am not confident in IFR ceilings through the period, its just as likely we could see scattered IFR with MVFR ceilings off and on through the period as well.
This is in advance of an upper trough moving into the western U. Precipitation fills in by late afternoon and evening as the upper trough and accompanying cold front cross the area.
Most showers now are over the eastern portions of the service area, with generally rain-free conditions west of the Seven Mile Bridge. The large-scale weather pattern is interesting this morning, featuring a deep cyclone centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with strong, cyclonic vorticity-rich flow along its southeastern flank. This cyclone has become detached from the primary belt of midlatitude westerlies, and has begun to weaken and drift southward. Cloud cover and rain chances will remain above average in the service area today through Wednesday, as the deep cyclone and its surface reflection weaken, and drift southward, maintaining an influence locally through episodic forcing for ascent.
Light precipitation has started to spread across portions of the Northern Rockies this morning, with the potential for pockets light freezing drizzle for some western Montana valleys through mid morning. The heavier amounts of moisture will arrive as the trough axes nears the Montana/Idaho border later this afternoon. The pass will see the snow first this afternoon, while the lower elevations will see the snow later this evening. After the passage of the cold front tonight, colder air will settle in over western Montana and north-central Idaho tomorrow morning. 1 to 3 inches will be possible through the day Wednesday, with most valleys on the lower end. The valleys of northwest Montana will see the higher amounts.
There is a weak disturbance coming through the ridge to the west with some stars visible early this morning but a high thin cirrus shield.
At this time, will add a mention of a few low clouds but expect with heating and increasing winds that most of the low clouds will remain east of OKC/OUN. Temperatures are also at or just below freezing, so freezing fog is also possible. A trough/low off the southern California coast will move quickly to the east today into Wednesday, as a strong jet approaches the Pacific Northwest. In advance of this system, low pressure over eastern Colorado will deepen quickly Wednesday afternoon and night. Precipitation with the a "lead" trough should mainly be confined to northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening/night.
So the main effects will be heavy snow on the highest portions of mountain roads and for back country interests such as skiing.
Despite mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than normal this afternoon. Easterly winds to the north of this low will still allow for isolated to scattered showers across much of the forecast area, with the highest moisture and rain chances over the interior.
542 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 With the assistance radar imagery, it looks like the light freezing rain/sleet/snow ended over our northeastern counties around 08Z. Dry weather should now remain through tonight as zonal flow at 500mb turns southwesterly by mid afternoon in response to the 500mb low shifting across southern CA, allowing the weak ridge axis to move across MN and WI.
414 AM MST Tue Jan 9 2018 As the low pressure area moving through the southwest U.
/26/ Today and tonight: Despite mid level ridging over the forecast area in the short term, the cold core low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to influence the weather.
There is a sign of some decreased visibilities late tonight and early Wednesday with possible ground fog developing (especially for MFE), however, given the high amount of uncertainty, decided to leave out of the forecast for now. Another warm day across the area with temperatures warming into the lower and mid 70s. The sensible weather across the CWFA will remain benign as an upper level ridge moves overhead through early Wednesday. Eventually, a longwave trough will begin digging across the four corners by late in the period and will eventually transition the flow back to a southwesterly aloft. SREF is also pinging this potential with the higher probability residing along the I69C corridor and northern Ranchlands.
The low pressure system currently off the southern California coast will track east across the desert southwest tonight through early Wednesday.
541 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Areas of dense fog and freezing fog will impact much of the Missouri Ozarks through early this morning before gradually lifting by late morning. With temperatures hovering near freezing the potential for black ice will persist through sunrise. Could also see patchy drizzle develop tonight but temperatures will remain above freezing. Southerly winds will continue to increase into Wednesday in advance of a pronounced upper level trough coming across the Rockies.
Forecast soundings show the moisture concentrated in about the lowest 4,000 feet of the atmosphere, so this should largely be in the form of drizzle. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing tonight, so icing is not anticipated at this time. Prominent upper low west of California this morning will be located in Kansas by Wednesday evening.
A zone of weak isentropic ascent associated with the axis of the inverted trough will pivot through Mississippi during the morning to early afternoon hours. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Despite mid level ridging over the forecast area in the short term, the cold core low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to influence the weather.
Another warm day across the area with temperatures warming into the lower and mid 70s. The sensible weather across the CWFA will remain benign as an upper level ridge moves overhead through early Wednesday. Eventually, a longwave trough will begin digging across the four corners by late in the period and will eventually transition the flow back to a southwesterly aloft. SREF is also pinging this potential with the higher probability residing along the I69C corridor and northern Ranchlands.
527 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Main concern out of the gate this morning continues to involve fog and freezing fog for areas primarily east of Route 65.
408 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 With the assistance radar imagery, it looks like the light freezing rain/sleet/snow ended over our northeastern counties around 08Z. Dry weather should now remain through tonight as zonal flow at 500mb turns southwesterly by mid afternoon in response to the 500mb low shifting across southern CA, allowing the weak ridge axis to move across MN and WI.
The lowest visibilities have been reported ovr the Nrn counties, where a Dense Fog Advisory wl remain in effect until 9 am this mrng. Looks like Sfc temps wl rmn abv 32F this mrng, minimizing the potential for freezing fog.
and Wednesday The main forecast concerns are small chances of freezing drizzle late tonight into Wednesday morning, and temperature trends. A ridge of high pressure over the western Great Lakes will slide east today, and allow south flow to develop. Have opted to mention a chance of light freezing drizzle late tonight into Wednesday morning, but think the best chance will be over the higher terrain of north central WI.
Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures along the Keys island chain are in the lower 70s. The local morning sounding showed a continuation of the low level veered profile.
513 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Near-record and record high temperatures expected today as southwest winds associated with lee trof boosts maxima some 25 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. This will drive a Pacific cold front across the area Wednesday, followed by a strong Polar cold front Wednesday night.
Upper level ridging will slide eastward over the Southern Plains today then into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level low currently just off the coast of California will slide through the Desert Southwest today then into the Four Corners region tonight. Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight are progged to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to around 40 degrees along the KS/OK border. The upper level low mentioned in the short term section will move into the Central Rockies Wednesday, then Central Plains Wednesday night.
The low that brought us rain yesterday is well into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There is a slight chance for freezing rain through this morning in parts of Elko County including the stretch of Interstate 80 from Wells to Wendover, and the stretch of U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 44 60 51 / 10 20 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 40 60 49 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 40 59 49 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 38 59 44 / 10 10 10 20.
406 AM MST Tue Jan 9 2018 Upper trof beginning to move over the west coast this morning, with this system expected to bring colder temperatures and snow to the region as it re-digs the trof over the eastern states. Push of warmer air ahead of the system also keeping temperatures from falling too much.
406 AM MST Tue Jan 9 2018 A broad upper ridge covers much of the CONUS this morning with upper troughs over both the east and west coasts. A strong cold front will cross the forecast area during the day on Wednesday with gusty northwest winds, falling temperatures and snow and areas of blowing snow.
Winds and seas will be light across the coastal waters for the next few days as a weak area of low pressure lingers near/over the state through the end of the week.
The upper level low currently moving onshore over southern California is forecast to track across the desert southwest today and be located near the Four Corners region by 5 AM tomorrow morning. As the upper low moves eastward from the Four Corners area tomorrow, it will be inducing surface pressure falls over southeast Colorado. As the surface cyclogenesis continues into the evening, a strong cold front will move across northeast Colorado, bringing much colder temperatures and gusty north winds.
Issued by National Weather Service GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1010 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico today.
Heading into tonight a closed upper low pressure system moving through California and producing a fair amount rain there will work into the four corners region with flow aloft transitioning southwest across the Central Plains. Wednesday is when we see the pattern undergo changes as the southern low pressure system begins to lift northeast from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and a northern stream trough sends a strong cold front south onto the plains. The majority of the daytime Wednesday still looks warm into early afternoon ahead of the approaching cold frontal boundary.
/issued 412 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018/ The main focus again early this morning is on impacts associated with the passage of a potent mid-latitude cyclone that is currently approaching California from the eastern Pacific. Before all of the excitement tomorrow, a progressive upper ridge and breezy southwesterly winds will secure a mild afternoon today. Regardless, temperatures should make it into the lower to middle 70s, with spots flirting with 80 degrees. Another mild night will follow tonight as southwesterly flow aloft begins to increase ahead of the quickly approaching upper low. A Pacific cold front will move through during the day, tempering warming somewhat, but highs should still climb well into the 60s on the Caprock, with lower to middle 70s common further east, and a few low 80s not out of the question where downslope is maximized.
Mid-upper low is sagging southeast over the east/central Gulf of Mexico and the forecast trend continues to show gradual weakening with this system. An area of enhanced lift was close to the low while another was over the Florida Straits to our southeast. The models show the highest moisture convergence across the north where onshore winds are stronger. Would expect the most cloudiness to linger there but also bring the highest coverage of showers. There is a band of showers over the lower Kissimmee River basin, which might start to affect ISM-MCO-TIX before noon and then reach the rest of the northern terminals into early afternoon. High pressure centered well to the north will strengthen while a weak inverted trough develops tonight near the northern Bahamas.
There could still be enough breaks in the high clouds for some patchy radiational fog to develop. Otherwise the forecast for today and tonight calls for the lee trough to continue to deepen causing southerly winds to become gusty today. This should also allow for some warmer air to advect in from the south. Highs this afternoon are forecast to be in the 50s with warmer readings likely over the western half of the forecast area where there is expected to be better insolation by the afternoon. The NAM and GFS are suggesting a stratus deck will develop this evening as moisture advects north within the low level warm air advection pattern.
An upper-level composite analysis shows deep ridging prevailing. March 2018 was cooler than average across the Florida Keys. Total rainfall for March 2018 was near average in the lower Keys and below average for the middle and upper Keys.
852 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Another mild night is expected as we remain under the influence of upper level and surface ridging.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be a bit warmer conditions tomorrow with mainly dry conditions through the period. Weak WAA continues in the day Wednesday along with more sunshine, with daytime highs 10-15 degrees warmer than today, yet still well below normal for early April.
Light precipitation will develop across east central Oregon and the west-central Idaho mountains overnight as moisture rides along a weak warm front.
Decreasing cloudiness expected behind frontal passage as upper level troughing influences move eastward and sfc ridging influences build into mid state region.
Strong northwesterly winds are decreasing across the area as an upper trough pushes out into the Great Plains and surface gradients weaken. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the area through Wednesday as heights aloft increase bringing a warmer airmass to the area. Expect max temperatures Wednesday to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today with another dry airmass.
609 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Showers and thunderstorms to exit the region to the south and east through 04/06Z with the passage of a cold front. Farther to the north, a broken line of robust convection has developed immediately ahead of an advancing cold front. As the expected QLCS becomes more solid, the associated cold pool and the passage of an upper trough axis should allow the cold front to surge southeast across the area this evening. This should cause the intensity of the QLCS along the cold front to diminish somewhat as it progresses farther southeast. Drier air, clear skies, and much cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front. Some locations in northern McCurtain County may fall to near or just below freezing tonight/Wednesday morning.
This was in response to the cold front. Winds also had begun to weaken this evening as high pressure approaches the CWA.
High pressure and strong subsidence will shift south tonight.
/issued 1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ MVFR cigs persist late this evening over the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA, along and just ahead of a cold front extending from near an IAH, across Lower Toledo Bend to just NW of IER, to near a MLU and GWO line as of 0430Z. Light rain is lingering behind the line and the cold front is well past Tyler and Texarkana both with a 50 degree dew point. The cold front has just arrived in Shreveport as of this writing and stretches from Jacksonville Texas to near El Dorado Arkansas.
A strong cold front positioned across Central Texas will continue on its southward track into the region tonight as an upper level trough digs into the Central Plains. Hi-res models continue to indicate that our CWA will be more on the tail end of the stronger developing convection, and will continue with the highest PoPs across the northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads. Much cooler air will filter into the region tonight, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Tomorrow will be much cooler, with highs struggling to get into the low 70s during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs reaching the lower 70s across the plains and mid 60s in the mountain valleys.
The low will continue tracking northeastward while the cold front moves quickly through the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will quickly progress across the Midsouth along and just ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build into the region Wednesday supporting an unseasonably cold polar airmass advecting in from the NW.
Closer to home, on the back side of the low, strong and gusty northwesterly winds will diminish this evening as the pressure gradient slackens due to high pressure building into the region. Colder and drier air with the high pressure will help the clouds dissipate/move away from the region. While the center of the high will be over eastern KS, conditions will still be favorable for radiational cooling and northern MO and northeastern KS will see lows bottom out in the teens while other areas along and south of the river fall to the 20s.
While they were lower than a lot of the other model guidance, they maintained a stronger grasp on the lower daytime highs observed this afternoon. Highs tomorrow are expected to be from the upper 20s east to the low 40s west.
Very warm southerly flow today has pushed surface temperatures into the lower 80s across most of Central Alabama.
The strong winds and temps falling into the low to mid 20s will produce wind chills down in the single digits above zero by sunrise. However, the wrap around precipitation associated with the 500 mb trough will move across the northern part of the state. A cloudy sky should hold over the area through the evening hours but then gradually clear late tonight through tomorrow as the 500 mb trof shifts off to our east.
1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 MVFR cigs persist late this evening over the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA, along and just ahead of a cold front extending from near an IAH, across Lower Toledo Bend to just NW of IER, to near a MLU and GWO line as of 0430Z. Light rain is lingering behind the line and the cold front is well past Tyler and Texarkana both with a 50 degree dew point. The cold front has just arrived in Shreveport as of this writing and stretches from Jacksonville Texas to near El Dorado Arkansas.
Temperatures trend warmer on Wednesday, with highs ranging from near 30 for the north to the lower 50s in southwest valleys.
749 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A cold front will push east across the area tonight. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible with this cold front. Another cold front pushes southeast later this week. These showers and storms are associated with a cold front which should push across our area tonight. High pressure generally through the period with below normal temperatures.
Latest satellite imagery now showing clearing line advancing east this afternoon as drier air associated with high pressure to the north builds south across the Central Plains. For tomorrow, surface ridging will slide east of the region which should allow for southerly winds to return to the region. After a cold start, temps should be able to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s, with strengthening winds expected by afternoon as pressure falls occur across the High Plains. Period should start off dry across the region as high pressure remains to the southeast under pre-existing northwest flow aloft. Fcst models in reasonably good agreement that a weak cold front will drop south late in the day as high pressure again builds south across the High Plains.
1006 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 A cold front will move across the forecast area Wednesday bringing scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Upper level analysis has vigorous low and associated trof over the eastern Dakotas, with ridging across the western Conus. Upper low and trof will continue to push east as western ridge shifts into the Northern Rockies. Warmer and drier weather is expected for Wednesday, as upper ridging sets up over the western CONUS.
1000 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Passage of a strong cold front earlier today has left windy conditions in its wake with gusts to 35-40mph from the northwest.
Main concern comes late this afternoon/early tonight as broad mid level trof and associated strong cold front move rapidly east toward the region. Storms should sweep east to near the OH/MS river confluence zone up toward the Wabash River valley by 00z (6-7 PM CDT) this evening, then exit our e/se counties by 02-03Z as the cold front passes through that region.