Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper level low over southeast Arizona will drift northeast across New Mexico today and tonight. At the lower levels, a cold front will drop south across eastern Colorado early this morning. A weak northeasterly flow aloft will be over the cwa Thursday morning with the closed low over the OK/TX panhandles at 12z.
Expect dry weather and significantly warmer temperatures on Thursday as a fast moving ridge crosses the area.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-level ridge centered from MN through IA/MO/AR/LA, with upper-level lows in AZ and off the coast of ME. 850mb low was centered in northwest ON, with secondary trough/low somewhere near CO-NM. Hint of a warm front was starting to emerge around the western KS-NE border area, with a wind shift and moisture gradient, but boundaries were mainly weak and diffuse in the central Plains. Surface to 850mb front will lift northward into the CWA this morning, hanging up roughly near the I-80 corridor before driving south again as the northern stream trough slides across the northern Plains to upper Midwest. As upper- level low opens up into a wave and moves east, the last lingering showers should clear by early to mid afternoon, leaving quiet weather as surface to mid-level ridging moves into the area.
214 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper level ridge over the MS River Valley will slowly build east across the area through Thursday.
248 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Upper level low pressure will remain across the region into Thursday with cool showery conditions.
312 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 At the surface, high pressure centered from Florida to Louisiana with low pressure over southeast New Mexico. Aloft, ridging extends from Louisiana northward to Iowa with an upper low over southeast Arizona.
Surface warm front continues to move slowly east/northeast across the region this evening. Overnight lows still look on target with readings in the lower 60s. The warm front continues to work its way north across the region slowly. Temperatures will be on the warmer side through the short term.
313 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Mid clouds were a bit slow to thicken up yesterday afternoon, allowing maxes to reach into the lower 60s along and west of U. On the flip side, solid mid deck of clouds holding through the evening hours has held up temps overnight, upper 30s over Thumb region, with low to mid 40s elsewhere through 3 AM, about 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Latest water vapor showing two of the key players over the next several days, the first one being the large upper level low over northern Manitoba/James Bay, still retrograding at the moment, with the upper level over the Four Corners Region being another significant player.
102 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night as a stationary front remains just to the north.
345 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 A warm front will lift north through the state tonight and stall near the area through the end of the week. Moist northwest flow continues to support periods of scattered elevated showers across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain, all north of a cold front suppressed to the NC/SC border early this morning. North Carolina will remain on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge on Thursday with a trio of lows to the west (Midwest US), north (Central Canada) and east (Northwest Atlantic). With time, the eastern low will continue to push east away from the region while the low over the Midwest US moves east and becomes absorbed into an elongated trough digging southeastward toward the region from the low over Canada.
407 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Today and Tonight: Deep layered ridge remains over the forecast area this morning and continues to keep the column warm and dry. Also, upper level flow from the SW ahead of an approaching closed low crossing the Plains will pull upper level moisture into the region from the Western Gulf.
219 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Current Water Vapor imagery/RAP 500mb analysis showing a mid-level trough moving across WI while radar showing associated showers extending from northeast WI through southwest WI/northeast IA. This is due to fairly steep lower level lapse rates as another mid-level trough swings through the area.
We will move into a dry period and mostly stable period over the short term as high pressure builds over the Rockies and high plains.
442 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper level ridge over the MS River Valley will slowly build east across the area through Thursday.
/issued 627 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/ Moist low level southeast flow will precede thunderstorm chances developing later in the night as a strong upper level low pressure system over southern Arizona moves into western New Mexico. The stationary upper low that has been over Baja California and the Sea of Cortez the last 36 hours or more finally appears to be picking up some eastward momentum. Later tonight will see the potential for another round of storms, probably more widespread than the evening round as the parent upper low ejects across northern Sonora toward southeastern Arizona. The middle part of the forecast period still looks to be dominated by a transient upper level ridge.
222 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper level ridge over the MS River Valley will slowly build east across the area through Thursday.
Cooling trend continues into Thursday as a cold front moves into the North Bay with a slight chance of showers.
Favorable mixing conditions will result in mild but dry conditions for Thursday as high pressure noses out of Canada.
The upper low will continue a slow movement northeast to the Texas Panhandle today and tonight keeping South Texas on the southern periphery with a SW-NE flow aloft. Models are developing activity along the theta-e ridge out west forming along the Sierra Madre and moving eastward across the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon/evening.
300 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Areawide rain chance return Thursday with advancing low pressure. That front is progged to be shunted eastward as low pressure digs toward the Western Great Lakes tonight. Warm advection/isentropic lift on the van of that system will support average temperature as well as increasing precip chances, while the systems weak cold front generates additional precip with a Thursday night encroachment.
Meanwhile an upper level low was located across far northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona. This region will also be closer to the approaching upper level low's dynamics. Tonight, things change as the upper level low moves closer to our area and a jet streak around the southeast side of the low moves closer to our area providing better dynamics for our area. The upper level low will be in northern New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon and this should provide enough dynamics for more thunderstorms to develop along any boundary (ie. The upper level low then moves across the panhandles and into south central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Some more showers and thunderstorms will be possible under the cold core and wrap around of the low as it moves across and east of our area.
/Issued 340 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017/ Mid/upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build eastward into the region, and model consensus is for the axis to align over the state late in the short term period.
Plenty of showers and thunderstorms remain on radar as of this writing across much of the OK and TX Panhandles as the upper level low pressure system moves closer to the area. In addition, a cold front will move across the area late tonight and Thursday morning with cooler temps in store for Thursday. Lingering slgt chc to chc pops for Thursday look reasonable as the upper level low tracks across the nrn zones Thursday morning.
A stationary boundary located around the KS/NE border will move little today before gradually sinking SE as high pressure builds over the northern CONUS. The tornado/wind threat, while on the lower side, will need to be monitored with any organized convection near the front where surface vorticity will be maximized. On Thursday the closed upper low will be tracking over southern KS and northern OK, while the front resides just south of the forecast area.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. Deep layer ridging will hold tight through Wednesday with no rainfall and highs in the 90s. The ridge begins to break down Thursday as a closed mid level low ejects from the TX panhandle east towards southern MO/IL.
High temperatures today will be close to normal and range from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south. It will be cooler Thursday with highs in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. The initial system included a weak short wave trof that had topped the upper level ridge that was still to the west of the area. The activity was oriented along the low level thermal boundary with the heaviest showers and storms along and south of the front.
Mostly sunny skies further south of the boundary will allow temperatures to reach a few degrees warmer than they were yesterday (about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year).
Patchy fog possible this morning, otherwise look for more sunshine today and warmer temperatures.
With relatively light winds and high pressure nearby today and tonight it would seem fog will continue to be possible tonight mainly across the James Valley and southern North Dakota.
A flat upper level ridge was over the area. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over eastern MT. Upper trough will amplify as it moves across the area today and tonight. A weak cold front/wind shift was located over northwest ND.
1110 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Regional 12z soundings generally show good moisture up to about 850/900 millibars as a srly low-level flow has re-established itself behind departing high pressure. Rapid moving feature will advance east through the southern plains today and through the lower Mississippi valley Thursday advancing a cold front across the forecast area Thursday morning. Remainder of the week looks dry and as previously mentioned cooler as an amplifying ridge settles over the central CONUS between bookend trofs/lows.
Should be more snow melt today adding to the low- level moisture. The early part of the period will feature dry conditions with high pressure in place over the central part of the county. The high begins to get pushed east late Thursday night as a broad area of low pressure approaches the Rockies.
/issued 327 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018/ The closed upper level low over southern California will open as it approaches west Texas today. Onset of winds with the approaching trough is also delayed a few hours with the highest speeds expected around 0Z. As the upper trough approaches the front will push through with winds shifting to the north around 06Z. Temperatures Thursday will be around 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
Observations across the region show a surface cold front, currently north of Rawlins and stretching eastward towards Douglas and southeast across the North Platte River valley, moving southward this morning.
1146 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Mid-level moisture will continue to advect into the region ahead of a deep upper low positioned near the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, a warm front will lift north into central Missouri by the afternoon hours, which could force the development of thunderstorm activity into the mid afternoon and early evening. Afternoon highs will be moderated by existing cloud cover, with the exception being areas south of the Missouri River, coincident with the placement of the warm front. Expecting temps to rise into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon across northern Missouri, with values in the 60s across central Missouri. Behind the cold front, surface winds will quickly increase during the overnight hours, with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible.
But this will be temporary as the heart of the storm system developing to our southwest strengthens and begins to move into the lower Ohio Valley. Positively tilted trough will pass through the lower and mid Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours.
Thus, it will be difficult for the warmer air to mix down.
Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. 58 The sun will emerge Thursday morning as the showers and thunderstorms move into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Gusty north winds will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air, but with the sunshine, afternoon temperatures may still reach the 60s.
The effective warm front associated with this low will continue to lift to north of I-70 this afternoon. Along and north of this warm front showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop. The cold front then moves through overnight as system continues to move east.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Weak low pressure has departed and the associated cold front has now sagged south of us. To our west, there is mid level troughing through the central US. Despite the stratus mixing out through the remainder of the afternoon, the lower levels will still be relatively moist (outside of the srn CWA where diurnal heating has been all day). Well it looks like much if not all of the area will dodge the snow for the most part as low pressure slides by to our south across the northern Ohio Valley Thursday evening.
Better chance at some high clouds will be Thursday and especially Thursday night ahead of a low pressure system off the northwest US coast. High temperatures warm a few degrees at 850mb supporting highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows Thursday night in the low to mid 20s west, mid 20s to around 30 east of the CO/KS border.
Although most convection looks anafrontal, isolated severe surface based storms may be possible at the interface of the cold/warm front.
1142 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary from extending WSW from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the TX/OK panhandle area, where an area of low pressure is developing. Otherwise, back in western MN where more clearing will take place but with still a lower level surge of warmer air and moisture, patchy to areas of fog will develop over the decaying snowpack.
After 6z skies should clear as the upper trough moves east and lift ends along with drier air moving in from NE as the high builds south.
Forecast confidence is medium to high: Low pressure will slide by to the south tonight into Thursday. The low and associated precip are now expected to go a bit farther south. The only uncertainty with this is if the cooler temps and higher precip amounts of the NAM were to verify, which would result in a possible 1-3 inches in the southeast. Cooler temps will be in place for Thursday, though still likely a couple degrees above normal for the first day of meteorological spring.
235 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Low pressure is expected to track across south central IL later tonight bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. 75" will fall north of the low track later tonight into Thursday morning with the deepening surface wave forecast to shift into western Ohio by Noon Thursday. With the clouds and precipitation around tonight, overnight lows aren't expected to drop off too far with most of our area seeing early morning temperatures range from the upper 30s across the north to only the low 50s over southeast Illinois.
Winds look fairly light east of the Red River, and the high resolution runs have some lower visibilities developing across our MN counties closer to the trough axis. Will continue to keep highs in the low to mid 30s. As high pressure builds eastward out of the area, patchy fog will be possible, mainly for northwest and west central MN.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 56 65 39 / 100 100 90 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 51 64 38 / 90 100 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 52 63 39 / 90 100 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 49 63 36 / 80 100 100 40 NC.
257 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Latest water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough over eastern Arizona, which is currently opening up and will quickly lift northeastward this evening. As the trough axis passes, an accompanying Pacific front will result in windy to very windy conditions across the area, evidenced by increasing winds this afternoon. Overnight, winds will decrease, with westerly winds shifting to the north/northeast early Thursday morning as a cold front begins to progress southward through the region. Between the Pacific front this evening and the cold front in the morning, temperatures Thursday afternoon will be a bit cooler, with highs in the 60s for most.
A weak cold front extending northeast from low pressure over southwest Kansas into central Iowa will slowly drift south today.
Thursday morning: Rain will end from west to east in the morning, as a cold front sweeps across the cwa. North winds should also increase in the morning as the cyclone intensifies in the OH Valley, and the pressure gradient tightens. Skies should become sunny from west to east as high pressure/subsidence will be building into the area from the Plains.
1033 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 An upper trof will be moving across the area thru the day, with the best upper level lift being over NM. The lower elevations adjacent to the mtns may see some isold to scattered showers at times. Temps across much of southeast and south central CO will be a little cooler than yesterday, but should be around average. Otherwise, the upper level trof will be exiting the area tonight, with an upper level ridge building.
Chances for light rain from this lift will increase in the afternoon, with the highest chances in the FL Panhandle and southeast AL.
A second batch of showers and thunderstorms should increase across the area mid to late evening, shifting eastward after midnight as the front pushes through, before the upper level trough fully clears the area.
225 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 A weak cold front pushed through the high plains this morning, with surface winds shifting to northerly and slightly cooler temperatures.
343 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 This afternoon, the upper air pattern features a sharp trough over the Desert Southwest and relatively zonal flow over the eastern U. Broad WSW flow continues a steady stream of mid/upper level moisture into the Lower Ohio Valley. A surface analysis reveals low pressure centered near the OK/KS border, with a warm front extending southeast through AR and southwest TN.
This temporary cool down will turn warmer late this week as high pressure and drier air moves back into the region resulting in near normal temperatures through the weekend. The positively tilted low currently over the region is quickly weakening with the low center still holding back over the Lower Colorado River Valley. Dry air is increasingly being drawn northward out ahead of the low circulation as evident in the rapidly decreasing shower activity early this morning. The main shower activity has shifted to the north and east of Phoenix, so it looks like the shower activity is mostly done for the lower deserts. As the low exits into New Mexico by this afternoon, increasing subsidence behind the low will allow for mostly sunny skies but an overall cool day today.
208 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 A warm front will slowly shift north through our area tonight. A cold front will move through late Thursday afternoon and evening providing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, with warm and breezy conditions expected to develop.
As a cold front approaches Thursday morning, this old frontal boundary should be induced to start lifting northward, and changing the heavy precip axis from W-E to more of a SSW-NNE orientation. In the higher elevations, snow maybe mixing in with residual rain showers before everything tapers off--once again in the higher elevations Thursday night. For us, the main threat would just be in the highest ridgetops.
Mentioned earlier how there was some concern that gusts may not reach full potential as the low-level jet weakened and moved north-northeast. Yes we have experienced a few spots of 35+ MPH gusts, though the strongest gusts have remained down in the Valley, but sustained winds have been hefty as well with several spots reaching close into the low 30 MPH range. Cold front approaches from the northwest late tonight crossing the region through daybreak. 5+" PWATs, ahead of the front lies across the Northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads so this is where the higher chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms remains. Temperatures behind the front, as it heads offshore by mid/late morning, will be cooler but still above average. Overnight lows while cooler are expected to be right around seasonal averages.
130 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 A warm front will slowly shift north through our area tonight. A cold front will move through late Thursday afternoon and evening providing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, with warm and breezy conditions expected to develop.
Scattered rain and snow showers will gradually come to an end today as low pressure exits the area and moves into New Mexico.
Lower clouds are expected to gradually erode and dissipate through the evening as drier air moves in from the north and upper trough moves east of the area followed by subsidence on the backside. March will come in like lamb on Thursday with dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Temperature-wise today, a tight gradient will exist from north- south across the cold frontal zone, with 40s across north-central Kansas, and 60s-70s across far southern/southeast KS. Cooler weather in the 50s will prevail Thursday in the post-frontal airmass.
339 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 A cold front will continue to advance across Oklahoma and north Texas through tonight, overtaking the dry line boundary out west, with an upper trough approaching the southern plains from out of the southwest. Otherwise, the northerly winds will send in slightly cooler air for tonight, with northwest Oklahoma falling into the 30s, to the 40s across the rest of our area. More seasonably normal temperatures will be in store for tomorrow, as high pressure & weak upper ridging settles in.
236 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Under mostly sunny skies and light east winds, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic Ridge extends across the extreme Southeast United States.
322 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary from extending WSW from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the TX/OK panhandle area, where an area of low pressure is developing. Otherwise, back in western MN where more clearing will take place but with still a lower level surge of warmer air and moisture, patchy to areas of fog will develop over the decaying snowpack.
High pressure aloft will work to minimize cloud cover and convection, which in turn will allow for efficient diurnal heating.
QPF values of between one half to three quarters of an inch will be possible with the system tonight into Thursday morning before the low shifts off to our east with gusty northerly winds and colder temperatures moving in during the day. Shower coverage is scattered, and each run of the high res models develops less moving into the morning hours. Rain chances increase going into the overnight with a thunderstorm mention as the low tracks through the state. With the low moving through the state in the overnight/predawn hours, the area is just in a general thunder risk as instability will be limited, even with the shear/lift close to the low center. but the intensity of the development of the low. Airmass behind the cold front/low on Thursday not that much of a shift in the temps.
Winds will become southwesterly ahead of a cold front Thursday morning with a few showers possible at AEX/BPT/LCH. /issued 1110 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018/ Regional 12z soundings generally show good moisture up to about 850/900 millibars as a srly low-level flow has re-established itself behind departing high pressure. Rapid moving feature will advance east through the southern plains today and through the lower Mississippi valley Thursday advancing a cold front across the forecast area Thursday morning. Remainder of the week looks dry and as previously mentioned cooler as an amplifying ridge settles over the central CONUS between bookend trofs/lows.