Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1032 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Large upper ridge continues across much of the western CONUS, with west/northwest flow over the northern Plains. Dry weather will continue across much of the area as the western upper ridge slowly slides eastward.
325 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Southerly flow will increase across the region today between an exiting high to the east and a low pressure trough extending off the Rockies. Combined with rising heights aloft in a building ridge, temperatures at the sfc will climb back above normal today. On Wednesday, highs will be a bit lower as winds shift more to the east with Canadian high pressure pushing in from the north as a front stretches from the Rockies across southern SD. Highs will range from the lower 80s in northeast SD and west central MN to the mid 90s in south central SD.
A low pressure system centered off the northern California coast is also assisting in this moisture advection from the south. Moisture in place over northern Arizona will only increase through mid week as an area of high pressure remains over the Four Corners area into Colorado. This high pressure system dominates the conditions that provide steering for our thunderstorms. One other factor is thunderstorm complexes from one day/evening can help trigger storm development the next day as a small (mesoscale) area of low pressure or vortex.
250 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Despite a cold front passing through the region today, quiet weather is expected to prevail. A wide range of temperatures are anticipated across the FA today as a result, before cooler, near normal temperatures settle in moving into Wednesday. An attendant surface cold front is then expected to traverse the northern Plains throughout the day on Tuesday as well. The timing of the cold frontal passage and temperature response will be the primary challenges for the forecast period. Despite the presence of the cold front, generally weak surface convergence and large scale subsidence aloft should stymie any precipitation potential. Following the cold frontal passage, high pressure will begin to build into the northern Plains once again.
323 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today then gradually warming back up into the weekend. This will result in cooler temperatures in the 80s today. Temperatures then gradually warm across the area as the upper high begins to build eastward across central and eastern Kansas.
328 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 06z data has a cold front from the eastern Great Lakes into southwest Oklahoma with high pressure from the central Plains into upper Michigan. Dew points were in the 70s along and ahead of the cold front with 50s and 60s behind the front. Quiet, dry and less humid conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Surface ridging will be dominant at the start of the period, owing to a continuation of quiet and nice weather through midweek.
103 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was located across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma and should drift southward into northwest Texas this evening. An upper-level ridge that has been dominating the pattern will shift northwestward and weaken slightly through tomorrow.
One is more prominent across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a couple mesoscale features can be seen on water vapor imagery across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
High pressure over the Desert Southwest will strengthen over the weekend providing a subtle warming and drying trend, mainly for interior areas.
Upstairs a trough is developing to our east, giving us some upper level support.
Tonight Through Wednesday Sfc ridging remains in place across the SE US which is allowing continued S-SW flow across the area. As afternoon temps climbed into the lower to mid 90s, heat indices exceeded 105 across portions of central, eastern and southern AR. H500 ridging will begin to break down locally through the short term period before reestablishing itself across the western US. At the same time, a cold front will slowly move toward the state as well. Increased cloud cover along with expected precip will provide cooler temperatures Tue-Wed.
Broad troughing remains in place over Midwestern/eastern portions of the CONUS, while ridging builds over the Rockies as an area of cut- off low pressure continues to spin off the northern coast of CA. At the sfc, winds are light and variable, as high pressure extends through the heart of the CWA northeastward into the Great Lakes region. Models remain in good agreement showing the continued amplification of that upper level ridging over the Rockies, with the center of the 500mb high roughly over north central CO by 00Z this evening.
High pressure has settled over the region, causing calm to light winds and some ideal radiational cooling conditions that have resulted in some patchy fog. Winds will be southwesterly today with warm air advection aloft, and this will cause temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s across the region. A very weak upper level wave will pass through this evening, bringing a cold front from the northwest.
322 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 All night, an area of showers and thunderstorms has been sitting across the southern border of the coverage area along a cold front extending more or less from St. Upper level northwest flow pushes a high pressure into the central Plains which keeps skies relatively quiet for the next several days. This high also begins shoveling warm air back northward across the foothills of the Rockies. Fortunately, an upper level wave across the Great Lakes keeps the center of this high out to the west delaying the warm up for a couple days. Temperatures begin to climb into the low 90s into the weekend.
A tongue of warmer 850mb temps will move over the UP ahead of the approaching trof. With some mixing, this should bring temps in the low to mid 80s west half and upper 70s across the east - expect some locally cooler temps along Lk Michigan. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over Central Canada with a ridge over most of the U. The trough over south central Canada will head east and then dig southeast into the lower Great Lakes 00z Thu. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the eastern U. 12z Fri with a ridge in the Rockies and plains.
148 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather through the short term period. Billings & Miles City) will be a little cooler than yesterday.
1102 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A ridge of high pressure will build over the western US and slowly drift east with the ridge axis over the forecast area by late Tuesday. A closed low off of the California coast will remain nearly stationary through the short term period. The position of the ridge and the closed low will focus the bulk of the monsoonal flow north across Nevada and southwestern Utah by late Tuesday. The exception will over the San Juan mountains and to a lesser extent, along the higher terrain of the Continental Divide. This is due to the increasingly southeast mid-level flow around the center of high pressure that is beginning to nudge to the north and east.
/WCI With a rather moist atmosphere (PWAT values >= the 95th percentile) and additional weaknesses progged to move around the south side of the upper high to our north; precipitation chances are expected to continue into the day on Wednesday. Additionally, increased cloudiness will help to keep temperatures cooler than what we have seen in a while, with highs in the 80s expected for areas on the Caprock and in the low 90s for areas off the Caprock. The upper high will begin to move south and west late Wednesday, shunting moisture out of the area.
Shallow cold air advection will limit mixing depths to roughly 4k feet, which along with the cooler airmass will hold max temps mainly in the 70s, with a touch cooler readings along Lake Huron. A northern stream short wave forecast to pivot around a Hudson Bay/nrn Quebec upper low as it rotates across nrn Ontario Wednesday will drive a cold front into the northern Great Lakes. Subtle prefrontal warming across srn MI will boost Wed highs into the lower 80s under ample sunshine.
Highs this afternoon will be generally cooler overall due to the higher coverage of cloud cover and precip. Highs will remain near or below normal as a result of the higher POPs.
134 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Bermuda high pressure will result in seasonable weather across the area along with the potential for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through mid-week.
Model trends continue to show upper level high pressure center migrating slowly eastward from the eastern Rockies into the central plains this period.
228 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A dry cold front moved across NE Montana early this morning. This will allow cooler temperatures today. The high will be over the area tonight and drift east on Wednesday.
As the high settles into north-central Illinois tonight, am expecting the same thing to happen. Pleasant conditions are expected across central Illinois with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower 80s.
259 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Yesterday high pressure was centered over the Four Corners region. As a low pressure begins to ever so slightly get closer to the Pacific Northwest coast the high will shift to the northeast. Proximity to the high pressure will result in above normal temperatures for most locations. Tomorrow the high remains over the CO/WY state line as the low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest.
An upper low will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms with additional cooling Tuesday night and Wednesday.
508 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows drying in the mid and upper levels with the center of a high pressure system over Colorado.
The closed low off the coast has begun to shift a bit to the north and east overnight. The early morning showers and thunderstorms over eastern Shasta County are expected to end before sunrise as the low edges a bit closer and shifts the zone of lift further to the northeast. The low is forecast to accelerate northward off the coast of the PacNW tonight and Wednesday.
A classic thunderstorm pattern is in place over the Medford CWA with a long wave trough offshore and a high over the four corners area. The trough will remain offshore for the remainder of the week, but it will weaken after Wednesday. With the upper level low offshore, lowered flight conditions are likely to persist through Tuesday, although coverage should retreat towards the coastline during the late morning and afternoon. Low pressure offshore and moisture streaming northward from the Sierra Mtns will be the main weather features that dictate the fire weather pattern over southern Oregon and northern California through Tuesday. This includes the higher elevations of the McKinney fire. The low will weaken Wednesday and the thunderstorm risk will shift to the east.
We remain seated between high pressure along the Mid-Atlantic and across the Plains and Rockies. The increase in cloud cover and rainfall will keep temps in the 80s today, but the high humidity persists.
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Southerly flow will increase across the region today between an exiting high to the east and a low pressure trough extending off the Rockies. Combined with rising heights aloft in a building ridge, temperatures at the sfc will climb back above normal today. On Wednesday, highs will be a bit lower as winds shift more to the east with Canadian high pressure pushing in from the north as a front stretches from the Rockies across southern SD. Highs will range from the lower 80s in northeast SD and west central MN to the mid 90s in south central SD.
Cloud cover then scatters and wind direction becomes light and variable this evening into tonight as high pressure establishes overhead. Shallow cold air advection will limit mixing depths to roughly 4k feet, which along with the cooler airmass will hold max temps mainly in the 70s, with a touch cooler readings along Lake Huron. A northern stream short wave forecast to pivot around a Hudson Bay/nrn Quebec upper low as it rotates across nrn Ontario Wednesday will drive a cold front into the northern Great Lakes. Subtle prefrontal warming across srn MI will boost Wed highs into the lower 80s under ample sunshine.
Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today then gradually warming back up into the weekend. This will result in cooler temperatures in the 80s today. Temperatures then gradually warm across the area as the upper high begins to build eastward across central and eastern Kansas.
Rain chances were raised to 50 percent in the Upper and Middle Keys, while rain chances for the Lower Keys were raised to 60 percent. Also, based on cloud cover and rain chances the Lower Keys maximum temperatures may only reach the upper 80s. From synopsis, high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through mid-week. As the ridge axis slowly dips southward, winds will slacken by Wednesday night, with gentle east to southeast breezes continuing through the end of the week.
420 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery depicts dry air over the northern Rockies and northern plains, beneath a building ridge. Hot and mostly dry weather will continue for the next few days, as the upper ridge builds.
512 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Another hot day is in store for North Central and Southwestern Montana today as upper level ridging continues to remain over the area. Another hot day is in store across North Central and Southwestern Montana as upper level ridging remains overhead. With that said, temperatures will be slightly cooler across the plains, thanks to a weak cold front that pushed through overnight. Regardless, temperatures will still be in the 90s this afternoon, but this forecaster appreciates the slightly cooler temperatures.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. Models keep the upper high centered near the Four Corners region through the middle of the week.
603 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler, much less humid, and generally dry conditions expected the next couple days.
Today and tonight: High pressure will linger across the area through much of this time period before gradually shifting off to the east overnight. This will keep mostly clear conditions in place with generally light winds; however, the winds will not be as calm as the previous night with the high center east of the area. Wednesday: As the ridge continues to depart to the east, low pressure will slide across Hudson Bay. This will drag a west/east oriented cold front through the area during the afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 80s for much of the area.
936 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler and less humid weather can now be expected in the wake of a cold front that is easing to the southeast away from our region. High pressure moving across the Lower Great lakes will then guarantee fair dry weather through Wednesday night. A cold front will continue to slowly push to the southeast away from our region today. It will be cooler and less humid than recent days though with highs generally in the 70s while Tds will be some 10 deg lower than recent days. High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will gradually build across our forecast area tonight and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging over the Four Corners will nose into the region today as an upper level low over eastern Mexico continues to move farther westward. Ample moisture in place combined with a subtle inverted mid-level trough and daytime heating will support another round of seabreeze convection today.
The center of the 500 mb high pressure is along the Utah/Colorado border.
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 All night, an area of showers and thunderstorms has been sitting across the southern border of the coverage area along a cold front extending more or less from St. Upper level northwest flow pushes a high pressure into the central Plains which keeps skies relatively quiet for the next several days. This high also begins shoveling warm air back northward across the foothills of the Rockies. Fortunately, an upper level wave across the Great Lakes keeps the center of this high out to the west delaying the warm up for a couple days. Temperatures begin to climb into the low 90s into the weekend.
341 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Another hot day is in store for North Central and Southwestern Montana today as upper level ridging continues to remain over the area. Another hot day is in store across North Central and Southwestern Montana as upper level ridging remains overhead. With that said, temperatures will be slightly cooler across the plains, thanks to a weak cold front that pushed through overnight. Regardless, temperatures will still be in the 90s this afternoon, but this forecaster appreciates the slightly cooler temperatures.
Current IR Satellite loop shows mainly clear skies across southeast Wyoming with midlevel cloudiness across the southwest United States rotating clockwise around a strong upper level high pressure centered near the Utah/Colorado border. This upper level high is expected to strengthen and drift northeast through the day today with most models placing it somewhere over Carbon or Sweetwater County by Wednesday.
Increasing onshore flow will bring a push of marine stratus and cooler temperatures into the interior of Western Washington today. Meanwhile, onshore low-level flow will maintain cooler temperatures through the week.
Accounting for some high cloud cover across the northern FA as the cold front begins to make its push into the region. Despite a cold front passing through the region today, quiet weather is expected to prevail. A wide range of temperatures are anticipated across the FA today as a result, before cooler, near normal temperatures settle in moving into Wednesday. An attendant surface cold front is then expected to traverse the northern Plains throughout the day on Tuesday as well. The timing of the cold frontal passage and temperature response will be the primary challenges for the forecast period. Despite the presence of the cold front, generally weak surface convergence and large scale subsidence aloft should stymie any precipitation potential. Following the cold frontal passage, high pressure will begin to build into the northern Plains once again.
Upper low off the Northern California continues to influence the weather across the Central California Interior.
/issued 343 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ A cold front currently stretches from Western Oklahoma northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, first across the higher terrain, and eventually across the valley. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 85 71 84 / 70 40 80 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 86 70 83 / 60 40 80 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 87 71 84 70 82 / 60 40 90 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 85 67 80 / 60 30 90 70 60.
06z data has a cold front from the eastern Great Lakes into southwest Oklahoma with high pressure from the central Plains into upper Michigan. Dew points were in the 70s along and ahead of the cold front with 50s and 60s behind the front. Quiet, dry and less humid conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Surface ridging will be dominant at the start of the period, owing to a continuation of quiet and nice weather through midweek.
746 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Aviation --Mild weather through the week-- An upper level low moving through eastern Canada has an elongated trough that will extend across the Great Lakes region. In the wake of a cold front moving south, drier and cooler air will advect into the region.
726 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and also Wednesday mainly south of Pittsburgh with the approach and passage of a slow moving cold front. By the end of the week, cooler and drier air set in with high pressure. Cooler and drier air will filter in from the north with time, which will bring relief from the humidity PGH and north, while rain chances continue during the night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
1051 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler and less humid weather can now be expected in the wake of a cold front that is easing to the southeast away from our region. High pressure moving across the Lower Great lakes will then guarantee fair dry weather through Wednesday night. A cold front will continue to slowly push to the southeast away from our region today. It will be cooler and less humid than recent days though with highs generally in the 70s while Tds will be some 10 deg lower than recent days. High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will gradually build across our forecast area tonight and Wednesday.
505 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Yesterday high pressure was centered over the Four Corners region. As a low pressure begins to ever so slightly get closer to the Pacific Northwest coast the high will shift to the northeast. Proximity to the high pressure will result in above normal temperatures for most locations. Tomorrow the high remains over the CO/WY state line as the low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest.
Expect the low clouds to lift after 14Z, with all TAF sites becoming VFR. High temperatures will be cooler today, topping out around 90 degrees with overnight lows in the low 70s.
High pressure over the Desert Southwest will strengthen over the weekend providing a subtle warming and drying trend, mainly for interior areas. The Bay Area and Central Coast remains between an upper level low off the NorCal coast and the persistent ridge over the Four Corners. High temperatures near the coast will be in the low to mid 70s while further inland will be in the mid 80s. This will not affect our sensible weather much, but a slight warming and drying trend will begin in the interior portions of our region as high pressure builds in from the west.
A relatively stagnant upper level weather pattern is expected over the next several days as high pressure remains anchored over Montana and a closed low pressure system resides along the Pacific Northwest coastline. Heat advisories remain in effect for the lower valleys of north central Idaho through tonight. Although temperatures will trend slightly cooler after today, they will still be running 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with most valleys reaching into the 90s each afternoon. Regarding thunderstorm potential, the low pressure system off the Pacific northwest coastline will gradually shift northward over the next 24 hours.
Brownsville radar currently indicates some convection moving northwest along and just off the Lower Texas Coast. /issued 413 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging over the Four Corners will nose into the region today as an upper level low over eastern Mexico continues to move farther westward. Ample moisture in place combined with a subtle inverted mid-level trough and daytime heating will support another round of seabreeze convection today.
A cold front that extends from Sidney, MT to HWY 83 north of Minot (08Z). This will bring a wind shift and cooler temperatures to the area this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s in the north to the lower 90s in the south. Tomorrow, a strong upper level high over the High Plains is going to lift a ridge over the Northern Rockies. A cold front extending across South Dakota will suppress a low-level thermal ridge extending from southeastern Montana into northern Nebraska. High temperatures in the northeast are forecast to sit in the 70s while the southwest could reach the lower 90s. While the Bismarck area will sit near normal with the high temperature forecast to reach the mid 80s.
308 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows drying in the mid and upper levels with the center of a high pressure system over Colorado.