Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE LAKES AREA OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BASED ON FORECAST WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM THE SHREVEPORT AREA THEN SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND TO PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE. A BRIEF AREA OF PRECIP PSBL IN THE WARM ADVECTION SOME OF THE LOW TRACK INTO PARTS OF NE ND LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AND THEN MOST OF WEDNESDAY IN FAR NW MN. THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WHERE WINDS WILL BE IT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND ALREADY A DRIFTING SNOW EVENT BEHIND US FEEL SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL NOT BLOW MUCH.
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SLOWING DOWN A BIT AS IT ENTERS NE FL IN THE AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BLEND OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
WITH RIDGES NEAR BOTH COASTS AND A TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF NOAM. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WL PASS SW OF THE AREA TNGT.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP NEAR 7000'.
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW DEEPEN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE EAST GREAT LAKES REGION TO TEXAS. MOISTURE AXIS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE FRONTAL PUSH AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME CIRRUS MAINLY ACROSS THE W & SW WITHIN FETCH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
REMOVED THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF OVERHEAD.
Clouds will probably finally scour Wednesday, as an upper trof makes passage. Reinforcing shot of cool air provided by FROPA will yield largely 30s for highs for all but the western ptns SEMO Ozarks, which may nibble into the lower 40s, today and tmrw.
An upper trough over New Mexico and adjacent northern Mexico will shift slowly southeast over the southern Plains and Texas tonight. Light rain is expected for these areas, but as the lower levels become colder, some snow could mix in. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing while the precipitation occurs, and with a warm ground, any snow accumulation will be minor and confined to grassy surfaces.
316 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 A longwave positive tilted trof axis positioned from the Great Lakes Region to the Southern Plains continued to shift eastward early this morning. Behind the trof axis. the trof will continue its eastward progression with northerly low level flow keeping surface temps slightly below the seasonal average. as indications are that the low level cloud deck could hold over these locations into the afternoon hours.
341 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with temperatures below freezing.
HAVE HAD A REPORT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN DEVILS LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN -10. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MB ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND INTO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF AUS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT/SSF AROUND 05Z. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN FAIRLY THICK ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSPECT THIS IS LIMITING THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA.
307 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 UPPER RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
148 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. GREATEST RISK FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN APPEAR TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO NRN MD/WV PANHANDLES -- WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE DECOUPLED INTO THE TEENS AT SOME SITES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE - THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERAURES NEAR OR SLIGTHLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS TROF/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
Warm air advection and isentropic ascent should increase as return flow picks up just ahead of the cold front.
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR OVERRRUNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DRIER AIR SETTLES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE. WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AREA WIDE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
High pressure will gradually build across the area.
316 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LATE DAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOW DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.
UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA AND RADARS HAVE SHOWN A MORE EXTENSIVE AND HEAVIER SNOW AREA JUST NORTH AND EAST OF WINNIPEG THE LAST FEW HOURS.
PUNCTUATED BY A FEW DRY COLD FRONTS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING TODAY AS SUBTLE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AND SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A LEESIDE TROUGH STARTS DEVELOPING. THIS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOT AS STRONG ON FRIDAY SO HAVE KEPT TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS CLOSER TO FROPA AND BEYOND TO ALIGN WITH BOTH GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES.
THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED AND SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW (TRACED OUT BY THE CLOUD LINES) HAS BEGUN TO VEER MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. WHILE THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME COOLING ALOFT AT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET.
Cold front has pushed into SE OK / West-Central Arkansas this morning. /ISSUED 309 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ A weak cold front is in the process of moving through the Tulsa forecast area this morning and is currently located near a Rogers, Arkansas to Okemah, Oklahoma line.
RANGING FROM THE L/M40S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE L50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. AN ARM OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS PROGGED BY MDLS TO BE LIFTING THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY SAT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. BUT DRY EARLY WEEK WEATHER WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL READINGS BY MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE/FLATTEN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW.
CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT OVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND/BRUSH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ENOUGH OF AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT FOR A CHC OF SNOW TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. TEMPERATURES TODAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WL KEEP AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER A LITTLE COOLER AGAIN MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST COLORADO AROUND MID MORNING AND THEN TRACK SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
955 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 COLD FRONT AS OF 15Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A PBF.
845 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 SURFACE RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEADING TO LIGHT NE WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST OF ELEVATED POPS FOR SAT WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING AT FREEZING TEMPS AS OF YET BUT MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS. 41 WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NE/E LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
356 AM PST THU NOV 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL TODAY, THEN ENTER CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE EAST COAST, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY, AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SHOULD MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS SRN WI WHILE THE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL END BY 12Z OVER ERN WI. THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI AND NRN WI TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME MO CLEAR TNT AS THE ATM STABILIZES AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT WELL DEFINED WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WAS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ZONAL. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. WHILE TODAY WILL BE WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AGAIN.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A cold front was moving across the region early this morning and will probably clear most of the CWA by 12z.
A secondary cold front will move into southern IN by around sunrise and then through central Kentucky this morning and early afternoon. The front will bring another surge of cooler air. High pressure will build in tonight and then shift off to the northeast through the day on Friday. Cooler and drier weather will be in store. Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to mid 30s with highs Friday in the lower to mid 50s.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY PUSH INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WAS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 45N/110W. AS AN UPPER LOW COMES OUT OF WYOMING. THE MODELS REMAIN FIXED ON A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY FRIDAY. ALL OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR THE PESKY NOVEMBER CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
CN Two cold fronts will pass through our region over the next 48 to 60 hours.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE ON THE WEEKEND DUE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
THE BROAD H5 TROF COVERED MUCH OF THE U. SOME LIGHT RAINSHOWERS MAY ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KTS OVER KANSAS AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS KANSAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 G/KG. HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NELIGH.
14 UTC surface analysis shows the cold front just west of Tallahassee, but to the east of Albany, essentially bisecting our region. Upper air analysis shows a deep trough across the Central Plains and as the base of this trough moves eastward later this afternoon, the front and remaining post-frontal cloudiness should shift quickly east of the region. Fortunately, the low level and deep layer wind shear is relatively weak compared to yesterday, so severe weather is not anticipated.
639 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FAIR AND COLD WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY.
TODAY LOOKS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUDS TODAY. THE COOL RIDGE WILL STILL BE DOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES A CHILLY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW. GENERALLY BLENDING GUIDANCE BUT PAINTING NOTABLY COOLER FOR OUR NORTHWEST SAND HILLS AREA AND ALSO PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LIKE USUAL.
627 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 [Through 12Z Friday] SHRA and isolated TSRA will affect KTLH and KVLD through late morning as a weak cold front moves east through the region. The 10 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front from the northern AL-GA border, through Pensacola, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The latest NWP consensus, fro MOS to the CAMs, indicate that the end of the rain will be a rather slow process as the upper level long wave trough translates slowly eastward. Since the cold front won't bring any cooler, drier air to our eastern region until this evening, thunderstorms remain possible there, along with occasionally heavy rain.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF THE POLAR COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ROTATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST OF ELEVATED POPS FOR SAT WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING AT FREEZING TEMPS AS OF YET BUT MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS. 41 WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NE/E LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROPAGATE DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST HAS SHUNTED THE JET STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WITH SARGE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5-15F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE MORE EXTENSIVE/OPAQUE CLOUD COVER.
LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR REACHING THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY 15Z OR RIGHT AROUND THE START OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL END THE PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST COLD FRONT.
Cold air advection on the backside of this wave will keep temperatures seasonal for this time of year with highs in the lower 50s and lows near freezing. As the next system advances eastward along the KS/NE state lines, an inverted surface trof over western Kansas looks to keep the area in relatively mild conditions for the early to middle part of the day. Highs still look to rise into the lower 50s.
/ISSUED 308 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ A 970 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO HAD A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
612 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 AVIATION IT WILL BE COOLER AND WINDY TODAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE STATE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
At the sfc, high pressure will move eastward. Warm air advection and a bit of downslope flow develops Friday in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The net result is warmer temperatures across the forecast area.
538 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance Two cold fronts will pass through our region over the next 48 to 60 hours.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES. ONSHORE WINDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE 35 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A STEADY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST GUST MEASURED OVERNIGHT WAS 53 KT /61 MPH/ AT GLENWOOD. GUSTS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AS SLIGHT RIDGING FOLLOWED THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS. THEY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 45-55 MPH BY 6-8 AM SOUTH OF I-94 AS ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THAT TEMPORARY RIDGING IS A PRONOUNCED CLEAR AREA NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS CLEARING WILL ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW-DRIVEN STRATOCU FILLING IN WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TAKE THE CLOUDS WITH IT.
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE EAST-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. RANGING FROM THE L/M40S OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE L50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. AN ARM OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS PROGGED BY MDLS TO BE LIFTING THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY SAT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THERE/S A CHANCE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU COULD SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION. DON/T BELIEVE THE DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAGNITUDE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
HAVE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. THE DAYSHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WHETHER TO REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY THEREAFTER.
A cold front was in the process of moving southeast across the Missouri Ozarks during the predawn hours. Despite a day with weak cold air advection, high temperatures should still make it into the lower 50s over most areas with plenty of sunshine around. Areas of the eastern Ozarks may not warm out of the lower 50s.
932 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY.
1026 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG AN AUGUSTA TO DUBLIN TO ALBANY LINE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE TODAY. IT IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COOLER AIR IS HIDING. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ATL AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. ONE SPOT TO WATCH WOULD BE TRI WHERE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE LOW VFR CEILING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION BUT NOT MUCH TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
1053 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 HYDRO IT WILL BE COOLER AND WINDY TODAY.