Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
228 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 This afternoon a mid level trough was located in the eastern Pacific while a downstream ridge was over the Rockies, leaving the central Plains in a northwest flow pattern with a trough in the northeast. Tonight and Monday the mid level trough will move across the central and northern Plains as the upper trough moves into the western states. Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 40s while high temperatures Monday reach the low to mid 70s.
124 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Another beautiful day is ongoing this afternoon with temperatures expected to top out in the lower to possibly upper 70s. With returning moisture, expect temperatures to be a little warmer than this morning but still on the chilly side with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure departs the area Monday as the next storm system moves toward the region.
Dry northwesterly flow continues aloft but the surface anticyclone is located squarely over the CWA, resulting in near calm winds. The crossover temperature (lowest dewpoint observed near max heating) was a decent proxy for low temperatures last night and should be again tonight as temperature trends are near or slightly cooler than those 24 hours ago. With that in mind, the current forecast looks to be in pretty good shape as observed temperatures are likely to be cooler than guidance. Patchy fog will be included in some of the low-lying areas near the TN River late tonight, though moisture will remain very shallow. Expect another great day tomorrow with temperatures in the low/mid 70s. High pressure building in from the west behind a strong cold front has continuously brought in cool, dry air via north to northwesterly flow.
548 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper-level ridge jaunts across the Northern Plains today providing clear skies and calm winds across our forecast area. dewpoint temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s will prevent dewpoint depressions decreasing to saturation outside of central WI.
N/NE winds will continue the southward push of drier and cooler air through central Florida in the wake of the cool front that moved through the area earlier today. However, the temperature forecast is a bit trickier along the coast as winds will not be as quick to drop off and could stay up enough to keep the atmosphere more mixed, keeping temperatures warmer than what is forecast. The other possibility is that the cooler land vs warmer ocean temps may be enough to overcome the onshore winds for a light drainage flow to bring the cooler temps toward the coast. Barrier islands along the Space and Treasure Coasts are forecast to be a bit warmer as usual and in the upper 60s to low 70s.
It will still be on the warm side with highs from the lower 80s north to middle or perhaps some upper 80s south.
804 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 A forecast update is in place for slightly cooler low temperatures across swrn Nebraska tonight.
High pressure is sprawled across the southern Plains early this afternoon and is centered in western Arkansas. Quiet and warmer weather through the short term.
Have slowed the clearing trend tonight somewhat for the above areas, but high pressure building in from the west will still clear us out, eventually. The forecast period begins with a large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Overnight low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s are expected, with some ridge areas dropping into the 30s.
852 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Isolated showers will continue north of Pittsburgh into Monday morning, thanks to a departing upper trough. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Expect any additional isolated overnight activity to remain to the north of Pittsburgh, associated with a slowly departing upper trough. A still-present surface pressure gradient will keep the low levels fairly mixed through the night, which will keep temperatures from truly bottoming out. Nevertheless, minimums in the lower to mid 40s will be widespread, with some readings in the 30s on the higher ridges.
916 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Will push the clear sky further into the night again with this update based on the mid level ridge over the area resulting in not a cloud in the sky within at least 350 miles of the forecast area. A H5 ridge in place across the Northern Plains will gradually shift east while a large trough arrives on the western U. Monday will see some increase in high level clouds as the ridge shifts east and the upper flow becomes southwest.
211 PM PDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue today before a cold front moves through the area this evening into Monday, bringing light rain and mountain snow to much of the area.
Expect increasing clouds tonight and a bit cooler temperatures on Monday as cold front moves through the region.
A cold front will continue to bring rain and significant interior cooling this evening.
345 PM PDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Updated Air Quality Issues section Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue today before a cold front moves through the area this evening into Monday, bringing light rain and mountain snow to much of the area.
Overnight lows will fall to the 40s across most of the area and into the low 50s across the Metroplex. Only slightly warmer temperatures are expected to start off the work week, with highs reaching the mid 70s area-wide.
DDV (Issued 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021) Tonight and Monday: Main attention tonight is on the low temperatures and the potential for a frost in some spots. The highest probability for a more widespread frost looks to be in central Wisconsin, so have issued a Frost Advisory for Marquette and Green Lake counties. A little less confident in southwest Wisconsin with getting the frost conditions with the return southerly flow overnight as well as in eastern Wisconsin with the influence of the lake keeping things slightly warmer there.
/Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ Another beautiful day is ongoing this afternoon with temperatures expected to top out in the lower to possibly upper 70s. With returning moisture, expect temperatures to be a little warmer than this morning but still on the chilly side with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure departs the area Monday as the next storm system moves toward the region.
Clear skies and relatively warm temperatures prevail across the area this afternoon as an upper ridge moves overhead. On Monday, we will see increasingly strong south winds as the ridge pushes to our east. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today, but highs should still reach the 70s.
Increased cloud cover continues to move into eastern Oregon this evening as the area of low pressure advances towards the forecast area.
802 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 A forecast update is in place for slightly cooler low temperatures across swrn Nebraska tonight.
High pressure sprawling across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys combined with a dry atmosphere will provide us with clear skies and light winds tonight through tomorrow. The high will be weakening and the air mass moderating slightly, and low level thicknesses will be increasing, so tonight isn't expected to be quite as cold as this morning was. Monday morning lows should be in the lower to middle 40s, with the usual caveats for sheltered valleys, especially in the eastern half of Kentucky. Monday night upper ridging will be overhead behind a deep upper low diving southeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
High pressure now squarely over the mid-south, as is very dry air.
Mid to upper level moisture and cloud cover will increase tonight as the ridge moves east and the next trough comes on shore to the west. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer tonight coming off the warmer high and with scattered overnight clouds. The low lying areas will still see strong radiational cooling and inversions which break in the early morning. There will be an increasing southwesterly flow aloft tomorrow as the trough moves over the Great Basin. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than those today but still quite warm, in the 70s across the plains and 50s and 60s in the high country.
731 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward.
900 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will build slowly east into the area through mid week. High pressure was located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. The low level anticyclone over the Mid South/N Gulf States Mon morning will continue the eastward drift over the Southeast states through Mon night, while the cold mid level low over Quebec drifts ESE to New Brunswick, resulting in a gradual lessening of the NW flow aloft over NC.
747 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
453 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Digging western CONUS upper trough is supporting downstream local ridging, with WAA ongoing. This trough will eventually settle into NW SD Monday affecting high temps some as flow will relax north of the boundary.
Beautiful autumn afternoon in progress across the Ohio Valley as broad high pressure sits across the region. 18Z temps were in the 60s to around 70 in the lower Wabash Valley.
/issued 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ An upper level ridge currently over the area will move east of the area tonight. Upper level flow will slightly back to the southwest as a sharp long wave trough moves onshore on the west coast. This trough will close off on Monday as it moves across the Intermountain West region. As a result, this system will induce stronger lee troughing/cyclogenesis on Monday leading to breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures.
625 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure continues over the area at the surface and an upper ridge will move into the area tonight.
Winds will veer to the southeast through the day on Monday as the high shifts eastward. As the upper short wave exits to the east later tonight, ridging will take place bringing drier mid and upper levels to the area. This will lead to a few lower clouds tonight through Monday, but skies will still be mostly clear for the most part due to the subsident ridging aloft. The onshore flow will become weak to moderate on Monday and will begin bringing warmer temps to the area with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Monday night temps will also be warmer and more humid due to increasing dewpoints. A couple of models want to bring very light precipitation to the Coastal Bend and nearshore waters Monday, but the airmass will still be too dry with ridging aloft.
942 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will linger over our region into Monday then modify. A warming trend is then expected through mid week before another cold front with limited moisture crosses the area late in the week. Still cannot rule out a few reports of freezing temperatures in the NC mountains Monday morning, but widespread freezing conditions requiring a Freeze Warning still look unlikely. Patchy frost will continue to be carried east of the mountains in cooler spots, especially along and near the I-40 corridor.
High pressure has led to sunny skies and light winds today, and its influence will continue into tonight. On Monday, an incoming upper-trough will be lowering heights, but 850mb temperatures will peak, to between 15-18 C (mean 18z NAEFS and ECMWF values) across the CWA.
/issued 240 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure at the surface moving into the Mid-Atlantic is bringing a return of an easterly breeze this afternoon. Dry weather will also continue through the short term thanks to a weak H5 ridge axis centered over east Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico providing enough subsidence to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
This afternoon a mid level trough was located in the eastern Pacific while a downstream ridge was over the Rockies, leaving the central Plains in a northwest flow pattern with a trough in the northeast. Tonight and Monday the mid level trough will move across the central and northern Plains as the upper trough moves into the western states. Lows tonight will cool into the low to mid 40s while high temperatures Monday reach the low to mid 70s.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 70 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 69 43 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 69 44 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 66 40 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
1002 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
Hourly temperature grids were adjusted down to reflect these cooler conditions, but dewpoints in the upper 40s will support the current forecasted lows along the coast in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
High pressure with some high clouds will continue over the area. Tonight Through Tuesday Quiet weather was noted over AR this afternoon beneath large scale subsidence via an incoming upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Srn CONUS today, with only high clouds moving over the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will slowly moderate on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves away from the region.
Monday night into Tuesday the upper level ridge axis shifts east of the area, while an upper level low pressure system translates from the Rockies into the central Plains by Tuesday. Enough ridging will remain over the area to continue the quiet and mild weather with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s and highs in the low to mid 70s.
422 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The main story of the short term forecast will be a broad upper level ridge moving slowly eastward from the Great Plains towards the Southeastern CONUS. As the period begins, the forecast area is under northwesterly upper level flow on the leading edge of the ridge and high pressure at the surface. With low atmospheric moisture content, a large diurnal temperature spread can be expected, with morning lows in the low 40s, and even mid to upper 30s in portions of far northeast Georgia, and afternoon highs mainly in the 70s. Temperatures will gradually climb under the influence of the ridge, increasing by a couple of degrees on Tuesday. King Stable conditions persist at the beginning of the period thanks to a dome of high pressure continuing to build.
As the ridge moves off to the east, we'll see a surge of upper level moisture allowing for ample high clouds across the area Monday and Monday evening. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows will be much warmer than the past few days in the mid to upper 50s - the aforementioned cloud cover and southerly flow can be thanked.
Temperatures are a bit warmer this morning compared to 24 hours ago. Currently temps range from the upper 30s in the valleys to the upper 40s on the ridges. Lows this morning will range from the upper 30s in the valleys to the lower-mid 40s elsewhere. For today, high pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern providing sunny skies and mild conditions. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass and the I-75 corridor to the lower 70s in areas along and west of I- 65. Clear skies are expected to continue tonight with lows mainly in the lower 40s.
1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Clear skies and relatively warm temperatures prevail across the area this afternoon as an upper ridge moves overhead. On Monday, we will see increasingly strong south winds as the ridge pushes to our east. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today, but highs should still reach the 70s. By Tuesday, an upper low will move into western Nebraska/Kansas, forcing a cold front through the area by late evening. A mix of rain/snow is possible to our north and west as the upper low moves through, and showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front to our southeast.
249 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward.
1151 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Isolated showers will continue north of Pittsburgh into Monday morning with departing upper trough. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure.
Lighter winds are expected across the eastern Ozarks today closer to the center of the high. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s under sunny skies.
Building thickness will support slightly warmer temperatures 75-80 degrees.
A cold front moves through the region today and tonight, with an upper low passing south of the region tomorrow. Temperatures today will still be well above seasonal averages, but cooler than they were over the weekend.
322 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Early week period defined by the steady increase in the geopotential height field, responding to a combination of exiting mean troughing and inbound higher amplitude ridging currently fixated across the Mississippi River Valley. Remnant confluent mid level northwest flow as this process unfolds sustains a high degree of stability atop encroaching surface ridging today. Dry and stable conditions still prevail Tuesday, as upper ridging anchors overhead and a backing/southwesterly low level gradient lacks in meaningful moisture advection at this stage.
300 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Quiet weather continues across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure in control at the surface. Today through the day Tuesday, upper ridging will remain across the area, with high pressure remaining in control at the surface. Some high clouds will spill across the ridge on Tuesday, bringing some partly cloudy conditions.
154 AM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Temperatures will still warm into the 60s before a cold front swings across the area this afternoon. Cold front will be dry across the lower elevations, but a dynamic upper low over southern Wyoming will bring some moisture to the area to produce snow over the mountains, and a rain/snow mix ove the foothills. 25" of rain as the upper low swings east over the plains. No arctic surge is associated with the cold front, so cooling will be as a result of the energy brought in with the upper low, so while Tuesday will be cooler, highs will still reach the 40s across the area. Only impacts of concern would be for roads in the Bighorns, but confidence is low for any lasting deterioration of road conditions due to road temperatures mostly staying above freezing.
Not much change in the weather is expected on Monday other than a slight increase in southerly winds in response to a developing low pressure system across the western states. Lows tonight will drop down into the 40s in most locations except for a few urban areas that will stay in the lower 50s.
1031 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper-level ridge jaunts across the Northern Plains today providing clear skies and calm winds across our forecast area. dewpoint temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s will prevent dewpoint depressions decreasing to saturation outside of central WI. Monday and Tuesday high temperatures forecasted to be in the mid 70s as southwest flow upstream of the passing ridge provides 90th percentile 850 mb temperatures according to NAEFS/ENS guidance.
A shallow short wave trough is moving across Texas this morning, but the only effect of this feature is some high cloudiness.
VFR through the period as high pressure prevails. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 46 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 43 72 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 44 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 39 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was moving onshore across northern CA and OR. A downstream upper level ridge was located across the central Plains. Today through Tonight, The upper level trough across the northern CA and OR will amplify into an upper low and move east into the central Rockies late Monday night. The upper level low will lift east northeast across NE. The model solutions are about 6 hours slower moving the upper trough out across the plains, so shower and thunderstorm chances will remain across western KS Tuesday afternoon. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the Pacific cold front across west central KS during the evening hours due to surface convergence and DCVA ahead of the upper trough.
Will push the clear sky further into the night again with this update based on the mid level ridge over the area resulting in not a cloud in the sky within at least 350 miles of the forecast area. A H5 ridge in place across the Northern Plains will gradually shift east while a large trough arrives on the western U. Monday will see some increase in high level clouds as the ridge shifts east and the upper flow becomes southwest.
149 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Aviation - Dry Through Tuesday - Rain Chances Increase Mid Week - Cooler Temps and Showers Late in the Week I lowered our forecast low temperatures tonight (2-3 degrees) and increased the area of frost in our grids (near route 10). It should be noted the lows in the updated forecast are actually close to normal for this time of year. - Dry Through Tuesday Dry conditions can be expected to last through Tuesday as broad upper troughing slides into the region and corresponding high pressure dominates.
238 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 At 2 AM, high pressure continues to provide clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will gradually shift east from the Arklatex into the Tennessee River Valley. This high will keep skies clear through today and then some high clouds will move into the region tonight. With southerly winds continuing to bring slightly more moisture into the region tonight than this morning, low temperatures will likely range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. On Tuesday, high pressure continues to drift east into the Carolinas.
warmer, generally near climo in the low-mid 70s. Tonight: Mid-level ridge axis is progged to move over Tues morning. With dry deep layer atmospheric profiles, dewpoints in low 40s, sfc ridging & light sfc winds, efficient rad cooling will commence. below climo, in the low 40s in NE MS/Golden Triangle & Hwy 25 corridor while mid-upper 40s to the S.
1044 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Digging western CONUS upper trough is supporting downstream local ridging, with WAA ongoing. This trough will eventually settle into NW SD Monday affecting high temps some as flow will relax north of the boundary. Upper trough will migrate across the central Rockies through Monday, ejecting onto the plains by Tuesday and supporting increasing chances for precip over the region Mon night into Tue night. Cold front will push through the region Monday night, with gusty northerly winds expected on the on the plains, esp along the eastern slopes of the BH where solid adv winds look likely Tues.
A dry cold front moves through the forecast area tonight. An upper level ridge over the forecast area will propagate east today as energy over the Canadian Provinces and the western U. The cold front moves through the area tonight, probably not reaching the southern James River Valley aft 09 UTC.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday's values, as H5 heights slowly rise from west to east. This results in low temperatures tonight in the lower 40s, and high temperatures Monday in the lower to middle 70s. High temperatures Tuesday will again climb into the lower to middle 70s.