Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME BACK UP SOME INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WHEN THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN MORE MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY AS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES DRIFTS WEST FROM NEAR 21N/117W.
WE STILL HAVE A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION BUT MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETRIES BACK TO THE WEST. EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING RIDGE. 20 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
244 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.
/ISSUED 205 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK. THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SATURDAY. SO THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES.
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A RUN AT SPREADING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
400 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 THE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARMER H5 TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE EVEN AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM, ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY SCRAPE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR FROM HURON TO BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY INCREASING. BY EARLY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WILL EITHER HELP SUSTAIN ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OR POSSIBLY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP.
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. AN ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST BY THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN GOOD POST COLD FRONTAL MIXING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THUS FAR ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WILL BE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
CLOUD AND OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS KEPT AREAS SOUTH OF I35 COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY DID NOT MEET THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO NERN WY. TEMPERATURES IN WRN NEBR RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 56 AT OGA TO 64 AT ONL. A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DEWPOINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE WRN SANDHILLS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHEST 50 POPS WILL BE IN PORTIONS OF NCTRL NEBR THIS EVENING WITH 30 POPS SOUTH TO NEAR LBF AND BBW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S SOUTHEASTERN HALF. POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
An area of weak low level convergence is developing in fairly close proximity to the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.
AIDED BY THE TAIL END OF A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
/FOR THE 18Z TAFS/ CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TERMINAL HAS THE HIGHEST PROBIABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL LOW AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIME WINDOW FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WERE MADE. /ISSUED 409 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS AND SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TEMPORARILY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
A MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESUME ITS MARCH TO THE NORTH.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL NOSE A BIT FURTHER EAST OVER SE GA. WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S.
THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE DOES INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BETWEEN ABOUT 2Z AND 6Z BUT AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DRY AIR THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS BUT HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL FRONT EXIT THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL LOW STORM CHANCES WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA.
248 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U. THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST. THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE 25TH OF JULY. IF THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH.
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ZONAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PIVOT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY. BUT COULD SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST NEAR SFC TROF AND IN A MOISTER AIRMASS. EXPECT AN INCREASED W-NW WIND TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHERN ROCKIES TROF WILL SPLIT WITH ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS UNDER COOLER AIR ALOFT.
A S/W TROF AND WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS THOUGH BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WERE SEEN NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF BEFORE 12Z AS THE S/W TROF AND WARM FRONT SHIFT NE OF THE REGION. WHERE A WEAK SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WHICH SHOULD HOLD ANY PCPN AT BAY UNTIL A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR SW COUNTIES LATE. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD OCCUR WITH THE WARM FRONT. A S/W TROF. OR THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A RUN AT SPREADING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDS INTO THE DISTRICT.
MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WHICH PLACES PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF COUNTIES /BROWN-SPINK EASTWARD/ IN THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING STORMS. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 90+ KT JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE CAPE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW END.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE LUMBERING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH 40-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CAP FURTHER ERODES AND AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE ELEVATED CAPE AFTER 00Z SO WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TONIGHT.
Temperatures this afternoon are ranging into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This extreme heat has been courtesy of an upper level ridge building across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This ridge will remain entrenched over the area during the day tomorrow with highs again rising into the low to mid 90s.
GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION TIGHTENS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING. THE SECOND AREA IS THE UINTA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT FOR STORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW PWAT VALUES IS A ONE DAY WONDER AS MOISTURE WILL BE ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER TEXAS. EVEN SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. TEMPS WILL CONT TO RUN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. FUELS HAVE CURED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. DEW POINTS FALL TO THE LOWER 30S THAT WILL RESULT IN HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY MAINTAINING A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. SE WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCT CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ THE HOT WEATHER WILL INTENSITY SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS MORE DIRECTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. FOR TODAY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
ON SAT AN UPR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WL BE OVR ERN TX. WITH AN UPR TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH AN UPR TROF OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MSTR WL BE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SW AND INTO CO AHEAD OF THE TROF AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE.
Upper level high pressure sits over the southeastern states with a weak +PV anomaly over the Great Lakes. At the lower levels, a decaying surface front stretches across the Atlantic Ocean to near the Georgia-South Carolina coastal border with a surface convergence boundary oriented NE-SW across central Georgia, then bisecting Leon and Wakulla county and curving westward along the north Florida coastline.
EARLY IN THE WEEK UPSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT WL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE AREA WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED ESP OVER N AND CENTRAL FL. MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MIGRATING NWD TO AROUND CENTRAL FL BY MID WEEK AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BRING SOME DRYING OF THE LCL AIRMASS. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH/S-CENTRAL FL.
1145 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH MAY SHIFT SOMEWHAT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC LEE TROF WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.
LIKELY AIDED BY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SFC COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE NW CONUS. A LITTLE COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY POST-FRONTAL WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIDED BY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS.
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY GENERAL UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE LEE- SIDE TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS ACROSS OUR DISTRICT.
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING. IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS EVEN MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) PESKY NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN OZARKS TO S SECTIONS OF STL METRO HAS BEEN FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, WHILE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN IL HAS INTENSIFIED JUST A BIT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT/SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS.
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H5 ANALYSIS CENTERS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS NW OHIO TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS SW INDIANA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT USHERING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDED IN PRECIP FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTH. HEAT WILL REMAIN THE "HOT TOPIC" IN THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH. AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOO.
The overall pattern will change very little through tonight, which means that the upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather.
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern U. The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.
154 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THIS DRY AIR MASS/HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WITH US RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER BUT NOT A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
/ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE NATION THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT A STRONG JULY SUN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SW MN. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL HAVE INCREASING 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A LOW/MID LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH WESTERN AR AND MUCH OF EASTERN OK THIS MORNING.
BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS MAINLY 40 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THIS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY.
A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE NORTHLAND WAS UNDER A NW FLOW PATTERN BECAUSE OF THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS HAS THE VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LEANED ON THE COOLER NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOWER 50S. OVERALL WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES.
WHILE MOST OF SATURDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 WITH THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER US. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM.
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ /ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH OUT. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH. 11 /ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR THE BAHAMAS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A COL REGION ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP THE HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TUTT TO THE EAST ARE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY UNSTABLE BUT THERE ARE LIMITS TO THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING.
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD. AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY SETTLES INTO THE NRN GULF. TEMP TRENDS THUS FAR HAVE CLIMBED BARELY INTO THE LOWER 80S RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. WITH DEW PTS MORE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FEATURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS DRIFTING EWD.
Low humidity made the airmass feel comfortable despite temperatures flirting with the low 90s. A Canadian high pressure system was centered directly over southern Missouri, causing light and variable surface winds this afternoon. Light and variable winds will continue as high pressure will be slow to move.
A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO EVEN INLAND AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR-SHORE AREAS. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
/ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOK TO RESIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL STAY PRIMARILY JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.