Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This low level jet weakens Tuesday as it pivots to the east across eastern IA into northern IL. Small chance for convection across the area in the afternoon and again later Tuesday night as weakening cold front moves south through Wisconsin.
340 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic, ridging wwd across the nrn Gulf, and maintaining a very moist srly low- level flow across the region. Water vapor imagery shows ridging aloft remaining to our west while weak troffing is noted over the ern 1/3 of the country. As we move through mid-week, the ridge axis to our west is progged to drift wwd somewhat and our flow aloft transitions to more of a zonal flow which may help reduce some convective potential across the nrn 1/3 of the forecast area. A mostly light onshore flow is expected to continue through the forecast period with high pressure generally in control.
High pressure will slowly build over the region over the next few days. Overall the area remains in a weak trough pattern with high resolution GOES-17 water vapor imagery indicating a weak weather disturbance moving towards the Northwest California coast. Over the next few days the pattern will evolve from the weak trough pattern to more of a ridge.
300 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Isolated pulse type showers/storms will dissipate quickly this evening, with quiet weather, albeit warm and humid conditions for the remainder of the night, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Will confine probabilities to those areas, Otherwise, it should be another hot and humid day for much of the area hitting heat advisory criteria, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range.
High pressure will exit to the east today. Return flow will set up on the back side of the high. Breezy southerly winds will usher in warmer, more humid air. Low pressure moves in from the west by this evening bringing some showers and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure builds back in on Tuesday with dry conditions expected.
As the MCS exits southeast, some models (esp RAP) hang an inverted trough/piece of upper level energy northwest of MCV. Showers/storm chances will accompany the trough and its associated sfc front.
333 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough will prevail until late week when a cold front possibly affects the area. Aloft, a weak low will break up the mid level ridge centered over the western Atlantic and south central U.
114 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A weak 5h trough was situated along the mountains of east TN into north and west Alabama and central MS.
1155 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Update - Fair weather today and tonight - Showers and storms possible Tuesday afternoon and night - Cooler late in the week No major changes to the going forecast, but we are watching the chances for some isolated storms in the southern forecast area (south of I-96). A high pressure ridge will build in and bring fair wx today through tonight with seasonable temps for this time of year. A strong cold front will bring some showers and storms Tuesday night.
Tomorrow the upper level high becomes more elongated and then eventually splits thanks to a disturbance moving west off the Pacific Coast.
Unlike previous mornings with low stratus intrusions encroaching on Waco, veered/weakened flow through the low levels should cause any low cigs to remain south and east of the KACT airport Tuesday morning.
A dry southwest flow will prevail this week with temperatures within a few degrees of average over the next few days before heating up again by the weekend as high pressure strengthens.
559 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough will prevail until late week when a cold front possibly affects the area. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland to the mid-upper 70s across the coastal counties, except around 80 at the beaches. Aloft, a weak low will break up the mid level ridge centered over the western Atlantic and south central U.
1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A large mid to upper-level anticyclone is centered over Texas, giving way to a narrow weakness in the upper-levels over southern Florida and the Yucatan Channel. The low-level subtropical ridge stretches west across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Local surface observations combined with the 850 mb vorticity analysis from CIMSS place a SFC to low-level trough nearly across the Florida Keys. A trough over the Florida Keys slowly will slide west tonight and Tuesday.
The chance of seeing some elevated nocturnal convection later tonight over northeast SoDak (mainly east of the James River valley) after 06Z is also still a plausible scenario, as the low level jet forecast to develop over the next few hours begins to point more toward the northeast.
830 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Update: A cold front has moved through the forecast area this evening. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Tuesday as winds veer to the east. An upper-level ridge will then begin rebuilding over the region.
Relatively cooler temperature can be expected to end the week. Instability remains on Wed, but lapse rates potentially weaken (either from being worked over by Tue storms or from advection of warmer air aloft). So although thunderstorms can be expected ahead of a swd-advancing cold front, potential for strong updrafts is correspondingly diminished by Wed afternoon. A cold front advances through the region on Thu morning, and rain chances shift sewd with the boundary. As high pressure builds in behind the front, and dry air erodes any low-level moisture, a seasonal end to the week is anticipated.
Temperatures will remain near average early this week as a weak trough lingers. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s in the Valley, while mountain locations should see highs in the low 60s to low 80s.
301 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Broad upper ridge extends over Rockies and northern Plains this afternoon with dry air aloft. Surface trof is over eastern MT- SD/WY border with much drier air and gusty NW winds behind it. higher dewpoints east of the trof, especially over south central SD where low clouds have persisted through the day. Cold front pushes southward Tuesday with cooler temperatures and east winds over the area. Upper trof crosses the northern US Thur and Fri with southwest flow and increasing chances of thunderstorms, then zonal flow persists through the weekend.
/Issued 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ Weak upper level trough over the area will support higher precipitation coverage through the short term. The trough has allowed deeper moisture to advect into the area, contributing to a moist and unsettled airmass over the state. Increased cloudiness and storm coverage will result in slightly cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. The area will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge.
/issued 338 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ Very hot weather will be the headline through at least tomorrow before a cold front approaches the area mid-late week. Left areas further west in an advisory for now given slightly cooler forecast highs compared with today which may keep these areas just below warning threshold, but this will need to be looked at again with the next forecast package.
928 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will move across the region Tuesday.
There may be increased moisture ahead of a cold front late in the week bringing a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough will be centered over east-central Georgia and central South Carolina on Tuesday with high pressure to the west over the Plains and Bermuda high pressure to the east.
After another warm night, Tuesday looks to be a bit cooler than the past few days, though still quite a bit above normal. An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to migrate west to a position near the four corners region by the middle of this week.
903 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough will prevail until late week when a cold front possibly affects the area. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland to the mid-upper 70s across the coastal counties, except around 80 at the beaches. Aloft, a weak low will break up the mid level ridge centered over the western Atlantic and south central U.
A strong ridge of high pressure will stick around for one more day across the Central Plains before it begins breaking down late tomorrow night.
With the ridging pressing in from the east moving to cover more of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, weather developments tomorrow are expected to be scattered showers and potential thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
347 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure remains centered over Texas with an elongated portion stretching out to the Pacific. As of now, convection looks to be very limited in coverage with the highest peaks being favored.
A weak 5h trough was situated along the mountains of east TN into north and west Alabama and central MS.
456 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure remains centered over Texas with an elongated portion stretching out to the Pacific. As of now, convection looks to be very limited in coverage with the highest peaks being favored.
Easterly low level flow will veer to the ESE/SE overnight with winds increasing to 15 knots in the H9-H8 layer as a broad inverted low level trough makes it way toward the southern peninsula. Inverted trough moves westward from the Bahamas and into the waters through tonight.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with dangerous heat and humidity expected thanks to a building upper level ridge centered over Oklahoma. By mid week, a cold front will approach the area shifting the ridge out of our area to some degree.
641 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Isolated pulse type showers/storms will dissipate quickly this evening, with quiet weather, albeit warm and humid conditions for the remainder of the night, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Will confine probabilities to those areas, Otherwise, it should be another hot and humid day for much of the area hitting heat advisory criteria, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s with light winds.
Morning lows will fall into the low to middle 70s.
/issued 340 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic, ridging wwd across the nrn Gulf, and maintaining a very moist srly low- level flow across the region. Water vapor imagery shows ridging aloft remaining to our west while weak troffing is noted over the ern 1/3 of the country. As we move through mid-week, the ridge axis to our west is progged to drift wwd somewhat and our flow aloft transitions to more of a zonal flow which may help reduce some convective potential across the nrn 1/3 of the forecast area. A mostly light onshore flow is expected to continue through the forecast period with high pressure generally in control.
A upper level ridge dominated the south-central CONUS with warm and dry zonal flow aloft. A cold front poised just north of the Canadian/US border is forecast to progress southward into western NE and eastern WY plains Tuesday afternoon, shifting winds into the east. Low level easterly upslope flow will introduce cooler temperatures, increasing moisture and instability east of the Laramie Range during the afternoon and evening.
/Issued 215 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ A dry southwest flow will prevail this week with temperatures within a few degrees of average over the next few days before heating up again by the weekend as high pressure strengthens.
752 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure will crest over the region on Tuesday before shifting offshore to the southeast.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish over the next hour or so with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper- level trough slides eastward.
526 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A upper level ridge dominated the south-central CONUS with warm and dry zonal flow aloft. A cold front poised just north of the Canadian/US border is forecast to progress southward into western NE and eastern WY plains Tuesday afternoon, shifting winds into the east. Low level easterly upslope flow will introduce cooler temperatures, increasing moisture and instability east of the Laramie Range during the afternoon and evening.
Tonight will become clear as high pressure builds across the region.
721 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 The Atlantic ridge axis remains stationed across the north-central Florida peninsula this evening, with an east to southeast wind flow continuing. High pressure will keep southeast winds in place for the next several days, although the sea breeze will turn winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
516 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Broad upper ridge extends over Rockies and northern Plains this afternoon with dry air aloft. Surface trof is over eastern MT- SD/WY border with much drier air and gusty NW winds behind it. higher dewpoints east of the trof, especially over south central SD where low clouds have persisted through the day. Cold front pushes southward Tuesday with cooler temperatures and east winds over the area. Upper trof crosses the northern US Thur and Fri with southwest flow and increasing chances of thunderstorms, then zonal flow persists through the weekend.
1058 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Tonight will become clear as high pressure builds across the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 96 75 94 / 0 20 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 94 72 93 / 0 20 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 71 94 74 93 / 0 20 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 92 68 92 / 0 20 30 40.
531 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure will crest over the region on Tuesday before shifting offshore to the southeast.
500 mb pattern shows a general weakness between the continental ridge over Texas and the Bermuda Ridge.
An upper ridge axis extends from the Southern into the Central Rockies as an upper trough extends off the West Coast. A weak cold front will settle to near the Nebraska/Kansas border by late this afternoon, with easterly winds present across western Nebraska.
Upper trof mainly moving through the Pac NW but brushing Norcal will give the CWA some pleasant temps for one more day, before temps warm during the mid week period. Temperatures will remain near average early this week as a weak trough lingers. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s in the Valley, while mountain locations should see highs in the low 60s to low 80s.
1014 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Broad upper ridge extends over Rockies and northern Plains this afternoon with dry air aloft. Surface trof is over eastern MT- SD/WY border with much drier air and gusty NW winds behind it. higher dewpoints east of the trof, especially over south central SD where low clouds have persisted through the day. Cold front pushes southward Tuesday with cooler temperatures and east winds over the area. Upper trof crosses the northern US Thur and Fri with southwest flow and increasing chances of thunderstorms, then zonal flow persists through the weekend.
/issued 328 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The bad new is temperatures warmer than usual, for this time in August, will continue; the good news is highs for Tuesday may be a degree or two cooler than today. Looking at 850mb temperatures, the thermal ridge may not be as dominate tomorrow. This would then help hold afternoon highs slightly cooler. Temperatures still look slightly cooler than those we've seen previously this month.
This feat is thanks to a tall upper high now situated about 400 miles northwest of the region and slightly lower thicknesses. On the periphery of this high, a layer of moist easterlies aloft complete with PWATs around 2 inches will continue to slowly expand W-SW from the NW Gulf and promote at least isolated showers and storms this afternoon, mainly from the Brush Country on east where attainable convective temps and the sea breeze coincide.
111 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 VFR expected the next 24 hours with thunderstorms remaining north and west of the TAF sites and upper level high pressure overhead. Tomorrow the upper level high becomes more elongated and then eventually splits thanks to a disturbance moving west off the Pacific Coast.
The surface pressure trough will be located well into New Mexico again this afternoon. The upper level ridge will become weakly defined at mid levels for the rest of the week.
The mid level (H5) ridge was centered over western OK and the TX panhandle this morning and is forecast to drift slowly east and will be overhead by this afternoon and tonight before gradually weakening. Due to the high dewpoints in place, very dangerous heat indices are forecast again this afternoon over a good portion of the region.
Given this thought NBM was reasonable based on the pattern over the past couple of days, but still think the dewpoints are a little on the higher side. Either way should still top out in the lower 90s for most spots. The initial convection will fire along the higher terrain in general, but all eyes turn to southeastward propagating MCS that is already developing across IA this morning.
1131 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure will crest over the region on Tuesday before shifting offshore to the southeast.
Given this thought NBM was reasonable based on the pattern over the past couple of days, but still think the dewpoints are a little on the higher side. Either way should still top out in the lower 90s for most spots. The initial convection will fire along the higher terrain in general, but all eye turn to southeastward propagating MCS that is already developing across IA this morning.
130 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 It will remain very warm and humid through mid week and a weak trough of low pressure will keep the chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
1140 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019 High pressure remains centered over Texas with an elongated portion stretching out to the Pacific. As of now, convection looks to be very limited in coverage with the highest peaks being favored.
A weak upper level trough axis will continue to bisect the area today from southwest to northeast.
143 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Upper flow is weakly ridged over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front is pushing into the CWA from the north. As the front moves through the CWA and high pressure sinks into the Dakotas, easterly winds will become breezy.
As cold front from this feature approaches today, will have to watch for development and isolated severe weather risk depending on how much CAPE can build northward in wake of southern, morning MCS.
High pressure ridge extends across northeast Florida from the western Atlantic. Temperatures will be normal with high temperatures reaching the low 90s.
Slight chance of storms will remain over the higher elevations. WV imagery indicates the upper-level ridge has begun its trek north, and is currently centered over West Texas. The ridge is still on track to move north-northwest over the next few days, allowing highs to drop into the 90s most locations beginning Tuesday, and continuing thru the extended and remaining above-normal.
321 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Mid level ridging resides over the Desert Southwest and the southern high plains. a Canadian trough swings across the northeast quarter of the nation. and a weak Atlantic ridge nudges in across FL through Wed night. At the surface Atlantic high pressure extends west. For Thu through Mon: Atlantic mid level and surface ridging/ with an axis along the GA/FL border/ dominates through much of the period. Then during the weekend an inverted trough may track through the Bahamas and across FL. The latest GFS and ECMWF handle the inverted trough slightly differently. High pressure ridging north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds.
The upper level ridge responsible for our persistent heat wake will remain centered across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma.
Some diurnal cumulus around 5-6 kft should develop Tuesday afternoon, but upper ridging should suppress any potential for showers at the TAF sites.
158 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure briefly slides through the region today, with fair conditions other than early morning valley fog.
1214 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Isolated pulse type showers/storms will dissipate quickly this evening, with quiet weather, albeit warm and humid conditions for the remainder of the night, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Will confine probabilities to those areas, Otherwise, it should be another hot and humid day for much of the area hitting heat advisory criteria, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range.
The first is the ridge that is centered across NE TX into OK. Closer to home, anticyclonic flow continues aloft with the ridge to the southwest. The ridge will continue to be the main influence today. Due to this, sided with the warmer side of guidance again.
Cold front will push thru the area although should come thru dry.
324 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Mid level ridging resides over the Desert Southwest and the southern high plains. a Canadian trough swings across the northeast quarter of the nation. and a weak Atlantic ridge nudges in across FL through Wed night. At the surface Atlantic high pressure extends west. For Thu through Mon: Atlantic mid level and surface ridging/ with an axis along the GA/FL border/ dominates through much of the period. Then during the weekend an inverted trough may track through the Bahamas and across FL. The latest GFS and ECMWF handle the inverted trough slightly differently. High pressure ridging north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds.
Typical high temperatures for this time of the year are in the low to mid 80s. The cold front will sink across our northwestern counties by daybreak, and the rest of the area by 18Z. Winds will briefly increase to near 15KTS between 14-20Z, behind the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly flow will continue at 500mb, with a ridge extending from the Southern Plains through MT. While high pressure sinks in from the north at the surface, a disturbance rotating over the 500mb ridge will help bring back the potential for more wet weather.
409 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure will build over the region today and will slide off to the southeast tonight.
Relatively cooler temperature can be expected to end the week. Ahead of the wave, surface winds will rotate toward the south this morning, this surface flow will move the higher dewpoint air (near 70) back over much of the CWA. Aforementioned MCS, and its upper level support, is expected to temporarily deepen the trough axis over Western Ohio this evening. Models are in descent agreement that the energy within the trough will dive southward toward the OH/KY late tonight. So although thunderstorms can be expected ahead of a swd-advancing cold front, potential for strong updrafts is correspondingly diminished by Wed afternoon. A cold front advances through the region on Thu morning, and rain chances shift sewd with the boundary.
Upper ridge remains over the area today but it does retrograde early tonight.
Currently across the area we are still quite warm as of 1 AM with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s.
/issued 721 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ The Atlantic ridge axis remains stationed across the north-central Florida peninsula this evening, with an east to southeast wind flow continuing. High pressure will keep southeast winds in place for the next several days, although the sea breeze will turn winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
328 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 It will remain very warm and humid through mid week and a weak trough of low pressure will keep the chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.