Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The exception will be locations along/north of a Macomb to Minonk line where a significant snow cover will keep readings in the lower 30s. Southerly flow will keep temps several degrees warmer tonight than they have been in recent nights. Despite a surge of low-level moisture resulting in mostly cloudy conditions, even warmer weather is anticipated for Wednesday. as highs range from the lower 40s across the far north where snow cover will linger, to the middle 50s far southeast. Low pressure is slated to develop in the Plains on Wednesday.
and Wednesday High pressure was retreating east over the Great Lakes, with southerly return flow developing over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
This overall warm air advection swly sfc to upper level flow pattern will support warmer than normal temps during the next seven days also. Actually, Thu afternoon highs will be on average 20 to 25 degrees above normal, spanning the low to mid 70s, upper 60s Cumberland Plateau Region. A weak inverted trough at the surface is situated near Middle Tennessee today, with abundant low-level moisture contributing to MVFR ceilings (IFR at CSV).
On the plains, conditions have cleared out with warmer WSW flow helping to bring temperatures back into the low 50s. The closed upper low over central CA will track southwestward off the southern CA coast by 00Z. As it does, increasing subsidence will occur as an upper level ridge develops over northwest CO. Snowfall later today will be light and confined generally to the higher west facing slopes. Low clouds and patchy fog may linger a bit, but around 12z window, skies should clear, then mostly sunny and warmer for the rest of the day. Models showing warm air advection at ridge top level which will help produce a stable airmass.
The week ahead will be characterized by the occasional shearing of energy from the southwest US closed low along the periphery of the broad, flat upper ridge anchored over the southeast US. Surface temps will likewise be on the warmer side of normal, particularly given emerging southwest return flow around this morning's departing Canadian high. Further upstream, the expanse of low clouds noted over TX/OK this morning will continue to lift toward the Lower Pensinula, arriving by late Wednesday.
Strong high pressure over New England wedging into the deep south rapidly moves offshore Wednesday and gets replaced by another high that will move into coastal Se Ga. Upper level ridge over the central to western Gulf will shift slowly eastward across the Gulf through the period.
While most of the forecast area will have light winds today and tonight, a tight pressure gradient will develop east of the Blue Mountains ahead of the cold front.
1033 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2018 Upper trough this morning is extending from the northern Plains to central California. Warmer air is quickly pushing into the region this morning and will continue through the rest of the day. Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the 40s to low 50s.
Aloft, continued flat ridging across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain warming aloft under west to southwest flow. This flow will also advect a slug of moisture northeastward across the region, on the western fringes of low/mid-level ridge, later today. Temperatures are expected to be warmer despite the cloud cover, although not nearly was warm as some guidance that breaks us out of the cloud cover suggests.
1129 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will drift east across New York State through this afternoon. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal today then warm up Wednesday as the high drifts off the East Coast and the flow becomes south to southwesterly.
212 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Mid-level clouds have been stubborn to dissipate within a region of weak lift ahead of an upstream upper trough. However, clouds should be on the decrease through late afternoon with increasing mid/upper level subsidence as the trough swings through the area. 35 inches), so the lower clouds may skirt by mainly to the southeast.
GOES Water vapor/IR early this morning showing a mid-level trough moving northeast through the Dakotas into MN. The mid-level trough will continue to rotate northeast through northern MN/WI this morning and into southern Ontario by this afternoon. Southwest surface flow/warm air advection moves in later tonight through Wednesday in the warm sector of low pressure moving along the US/Canadian border. There will be an increase in cloud cover Wednesday night as the cold front from that passing Canadian low pushes south into northern WI/MN.
1233 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Broad high pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley will drift to the east coast today. The high will continue to extend across the Carolinas and Georgia tonight and Wednesday as low pressure moves across Ontario.
1226 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will provide fair weather today into tonight.
105 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will be in charge today, with a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky, and near normal temperatures.
315 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 trough stretched from the northern plains through central CA per the water vapor imagery. Think temps could drop off into the lower and mid 30s for lows.
Water vapor imagery shows upper trough sitting over central CA, with another wave advancing towards the Pac NW. At the surface, southeast winds are expected to veer to the southwest through mid-morning in response to a weak lee trough. Temperatures today will start out mostly in the low 20s, but should warm into the 60s by afternoon as winds increase to 10-15 knots. Model ensembles and deterministic guidance continue to build in a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, while the western CONUS low sits over the central CA coast and even retrogrades offshore briefly.
/issued 351 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture has surged north into West Central Texas this morning, with temperatures actually climbing as the low clouds have moved in. Highs will be a little warmer today, mainly in the low 50s across the extreme eastern portions of the area where the clouds will persist, to the lower 60s across the west where the clouds will break.
1103 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 It will be cool and cloudy today and tonight with cold advection as high pressure ridges into the area from the north.
1146 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will build across the region today then exit to the east Wednesday.
232 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will be in charge today, with a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky, and near normal temperatures.
The area of low pressure to our west is expected to continue to move westward which will cause upper level support to wane and thus, precipitation will slacken. From about noon onwards, precipitation will become more showery and favor the higher elevations. Wednesday, the low will now be off the California coast and start filling (meaning weaken). While this occurs, another trough will start dropping down from the northwest.
142 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Dry weather is expected this afternoon under high pressure. A weak trough of low pressure should return rain chances Wednesday.
Wednesday through Wednesday night: The upper level trough will continue to flatten through this time period as southerly flow kicks up ahead of a cold front approaching from Ontario. Late Wednesday night, the cold front will approach the U.
The lower clouds/fog could very well move over KINK and KPEQ, if not KHOB. The High Res HRRR and RAP13 models bring low clouds into the PB in the next several hours. After any low clouds that move into the CWA burns off it will be warmer today with temps near normal (normal for MAF is 67).
1115 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 A weak vorticity lobe and associated area of showery precipitation (most of which is sublimating before reaching the ground) was moving through the mid-MO Valley early this morning, downstream from a prominent upper low situated over the Sierra-Nevada Range.
1101 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Hydro High pressure will bring fair weather today and into Wednesday.
A few snow showers still possible over the higher mtns but little additional snowfall expected so have cancelled the Winter Wx Advy that was in effect for the Sierra Madre Range.
The lower clouds across north Georgia will still allow some patchy drizzle off and on through early afternoon. This is currently and will continue to build a ridge of high pressure along the leeward side of Appalachians. Weak wedge will continue with high pressure building more into the area from the northeast overnight tonight and Wednesday. a ridge will build into the Gulf. Given the influence of lower level ridging. Kovacik Strong high pressure will hold over the Gulf of Mexico through this weekend keeping a moisture connection from the Pacific and across Mexico and into the southern U.
356 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures returned to the local area today as the low level flow turned southerly and warmer air began to advect across the local area. This has led to the first afternoon in over a week with high temperatures topping above freezing for much of our local forecast area. opted towards the cool side of guidance for Wednesday morning with most locations expected to bottom out in the lower 20s. as southerly flow at the surface continues with weak ridging across the upper layers of the atmosphere.
Main governing factor today has been the very strong surface anticyclone that building out of southeastern Michigan through New England. A weak ridge axis has been holding on through this afternoon which has limited the gradient wind response thus far. Altostratus canopy over the state will also remain an issue, preference is to shade warmer on mins tonight. Large scale warm advection rotating around the backside of the subtropical ridge will lift northward into the state on Wednesday night. Temperatures Wednesday night are forecasted to remain above freezing. Still good for some overrunning rain over Lower Michigan with temperatures will above freezing.
253 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will move off the East Coast tonight. A weak wave of low pressure will move across the area tonight.
315 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will shift offshore this evening and will continue to drift off to the southeast on Wednesday.
131 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018 The upper low that was over the SW has continued to retrograde into the Pacific with increasing SW flow over the state. At lower elevations temperatures will be warmer than the last few days with highs reaching into the mid 50s. RH levels are in the low 20s with decent fuel moisture provided by snow but winds and temperatures reaching into the low 60s for Wednesday will increase fire weather concerns for drier areas.
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will move east of the region tonight, resulting in an increasing cloud cover and warmer temperatures through mid week.
233 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 At the surface, weak wedge will continue to prevail as high pressure builds into the area from the northeast tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will build into the Gulf. With ridging south of the area, near zonal flow aloft will bring weak disturbances across the area.
High level southwest flow remains firmly established over the southern US, downstream of a positive tilt long-wave trof over the western US.
A warm front will lift out to the North with the system keeping the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms going overnight, but slacking off as the warmer air works in by Wednesday. We can expect generally lighter amounts by this time tomorrow with a good bit more patchy fog as the warmer air works in over the cool wet soil.
208 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure will move off to our east tonight and Wednesday.
As a result, we will continue the high wind warning through Wednesday morning for these areas. Another strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon bringing an end to the strong gusty winds across our western areas. Soundings show an outside chance for some light freezing rain Wednesday evening but this should quickly change to snow.
318 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Temperatures will moderate through late week as south winds return on the back side of departing high pressure.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. At the surface weak high pressure is over the Southeast. A weak boundary (remnants of a cold front) will move through the region this evening. The air isn't much cooler or drier behind this weak boundary.
The upper level low pressure system over California will drift offshore today.
High pressure was centered over Lake Huron at this time. With the high to our east, winds will shift to the south later this morning.
There's much less coverage and warmer temps than previously expected, so made appropriate adjustments.
252 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 The area of high pressure that brought residents of Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley abundant sunshine, light wind, and near normal temperatures today will drift east and off the New England coast tonight. An increasingly moist southeast to southerly flow will develop later tonight and Wednesday bringing overcast skies and patchy light rain, or even some light freezing across the higher terrain through early Wednesday.
1230 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure builds across the area today and then passes east tonight into Wednesday.
A weak low pressure system will drift slowly southward off the southern California Coast tonight then push inland on Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
315 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 An upper ridge is currently building east across the Bahamas towards the central Gulf.
312 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Temperatures are in the low 80s, with partly cloudy/mostly sunny skies as fair-weather cumulus bubble off the island chain and nearby land masses. A low pressure trough remains stalled across North Florida, and a deep-layered anticyclone is slowly moving westward across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. The anticyclone center will shift into western Gulf of Mexico tonight, with the ridge axis extending through the Florida Keys through. A slightly drier low level airmass will allow dew points to gradually fall into the upper 60s tonight and tomorrow, allowing our morning low temps to be slightly cooler. Low rain chances and mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies will continue as the high pressure ridge dominates our weather.
Weather highlights include highs largely 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday across much of the area and then mild lows tonight. Current model guidance is showing 850 mb temperatures to rise into the 8 to 12 degree C range allowing surface temperatures to rise into the low 50s by Wednesday afternoon.
A warm front will be moving toward the coast and inland overnight. General expansion of upper Gulf ridging will lower Wednesday's rain chances.
Lows tonight range from the low to upper 30s, which is above climatology for this time of the year. A cutoff low/trough over the Sierra Nevadas will keep WSW zonal flow over Kansas for Wednesday with a +12 C downslope=modified H850 airmass spreading into the Central Plains as H300 ridging amplifies downstream of the cutoff low. At the same time, a lee cyclone pulls off the Front Range and meanders eastward into western Kansas by late in the day on Wednesday. A weak warm frontal boundary begins to manifest itself ahead of the low along the KS/NE border and have likewise maintained a gradient in the temperature field near the position of the front for Wed and leaned on the higher side of the guidance envelope for highs to the south of the front.
829 AM PST Tue Feb 13 2018 A low pressure system off the Southern California coast will bring occasional mostly light showers through Wednesday.
Clear skies today under a weak upper level ridge. Increasing clouds tonight from the northwest ahead of the next upper level trough/cold frontal passage for Wednesday. Better chance for snow exists across Southeast Oregon as temperatures will be near freezing Wednesday morning. Well address Wednesday trough/cold front in the afternoon package. A cold front moving in from the northwest after 14/12Z will spread precipitation across the entire region. Upper ridge will come through our CWA from the north late today with mostly clear skies continuing this evening. Clouds will increase from the north late tonight and temperatures will moderate as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. The Lower Treasure Valley will get up to one inch, mainly on grassy surfaces.
Readings remain in the low to upper 40s across much of the region with some low to mid 50s in the Rio Grande Plains. Given the warmer start, afternoon temperatures should make it into the mid 60s to near 70. METMOS guidance remains much cooler (lower 60s) then the MAVMOS (upper 60s/low 70s) and given the trends over the past two days and the likely saturated conditions Wednesday, think MAVMOS might be too warm.
Southwest winds will increase quite a bit, getting into the 10-15kt range across MN, but they will also usher in much warmer air, with our first day of highs near normal this month expected this afternoon. At the start of the period, a warm front will be lifting into the area on Wednesday morning. Therefore have continued to lean toward the warmer end of guidance for highs, with upper 30s to lower 40s across the area, and possibly even mid 40s along the Buffalo ridge.
Temperatures will be a little warmer today, but with increased clouds and winds turning a little late in the day, the warmup won't be significant. At the same time, a mid level trough will move up through the region in the mean flow.
North of the front, which may very well encompasses most of the CWA, temperatures will remain below normal, and will struggle to get much above freezing north of Interstate 80.
1218 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather today and into Wednesday.
247 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Current surface analysis places troughing to the lee of the Rockies with high over the eastern United States.
1123 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Surface winds will shift to the south today and allow for temperatures to warm to slightly above normal levels with highs ranging from around 40 along the IA border to the low 50s in our south.
315 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 An upper trough extends to the southwest off the coast of California. Due to the increase in low-level moisture, patchy fog and/or low clouds will be possible across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos tonight/Wednesday morning. Not much change is expected in the upper pattern for Wednesday, except an upper trough moving over the Pacific Northwest. This will reinforce the upper trough off the coast of California.
220 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure cresting over the Northeast this afternoon will be the controlling weather feature across the North Country through Wednesday with plentiful sunshine and seasonal to above normal temperatures.
1247 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 High pressure cresting over the Northeast this afternoon will be the controlling weather feature across the North Country through Wednesday with plentiful sunshine and seasonal to above normal temperatures.
GFS and NAM soundings are saturated at the low levels Wednesday night and the SREF is aggressive with fog.
204 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018 Trough is in place from the northern plains across the Western US, with west-southwest flow extending across the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. A stalled warm front has slowly lifted north, but cooler air has held in place across our norther CWA were persistent snow pack in place. At the same time high clouds will be increasing Wednesday and this lowers confidence on highs despite moderation in air mass aloft. For now lows are expected to drop below 30F (possibly into the teens in our north) tonight, with above freezing lows possible Wed night. Highs Wed could be into the lower 70s, but this will depend highly on how much clearing we have before opaque clouds move in.
High pressure centered over lower MI early this morning. With the high departing to the east, deep warm advection will develop, and persist thru the near term period. That high will be over southern New England by the end of the day, and move offshore tonight, while low pressure moves into s central Canada. Possible freezing drizzle Wednesday night. High pressure in control Wednesday into Wednesday evening as milder air advects into the region.
Broken stratocumulus in the wake of the cold front will prevail tnt. The cold front is arriving in south central WI this afternoon, marked by a wind shift to the west.
Water vapor and radar imagery suggest that a mid and upper level impulse is wrapping around the southern periphery of the low aloft.
A cold front will push southeast through the state late Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing cooler, fall-like weather will last through this weekend. Min temps in the low-mid 60s will be an easy 15-20 deg F above normal for late Sept. The cold front approaches the NW counties of our CWA during the morning, and should drift harmlessly through much of the CWA by the end of the afternoon. *Summerlike heat event ends as autumn weather returns *Pattern remains mostly dry with no significant pcpn fcst *First fall frost possible to start October 2017 The impressive run of summerlike/record-breaking heat will come to an end following the passage of an airmass-changing cold front Wednesday night.
/issued 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/ Rain and few thunderstorms continue to form this afternoon along and mainly behind a surface cold front.
Winds will be light as the upper level ridge begins to build in.
816 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions lasting through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern today amid subsident air on the nwrn side of Hurricane Maria and amid an upper ridge. Lacking focused upper forcing for ascent and an instability profile generally below the freezing level, any showers that do form amid this environment will be sparse in coverage and likely driven by warm-rain processes. With the loss of diurnal heating and the passage of the cold front, chances for rain will wane rapidly Wed evening as moisture is scoured and cool, dry air invades in its wake.
The cold front will continue to slide slowly east across the forecast area this evening with isolated showers along it. Instability parameters not very impressive along or just ahead of the front with weak mid level lapse rates and not much in the way of surface or elevated instability, so will continue on with the low chance POPs for showers along and just behind the boundary, mainly this evening. The front should be pushing to our east and south on Wednesday with cooler weather filtering southeast into the region. Warmest readings tomorrow afternoon will be over southeast Illinois with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s, while some very pleasant readings settle in over our far northern counties where low to mid 70s will be common.
The weather will turn a little cooler over the weekend as a trough moves by to the north, but temperatures will still be at or slightly above average for late September.
The main story in the short-term period is a cold frontal passage. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 80s in parts of srn Illinois to the upper 80s in the Pennyrile region of western KY.
Slow moving cold front will continue to sag through southeast OK and western AR with scattered showers and a few storms. /Issued 303 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/ Cold front currently located south of OUN, extended northeast to a MKO, Bentonville line.