Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES IT WAY FROM THE WEST COAST TO NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THE PLURALITY OF MAJOR FCST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL GET INTO A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN.
351 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR.
The center of the closed upper low is now over western TN, and will slowly sink south to the Gulf Coast through the short term period. Upper deformation axis that currently stretches just east of a Bowling Green to Louisville line, will slowly slide west as it pivots around the southward bound upper low. Expecting overnight lows in the low and mid 50s. Areas along and east of I-65 can expect the 55-60 degree range for highs, meanwhile west of I-65 should be able to reach the low and mid 60s before rain arrives. Friday night still expected to be cooler with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH MORE SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
218 PM PDT THU OCT 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING, BRINGING RAIN IN THE EVENING AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SIERRA. THIS LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.
The trend over the next few hours will be for the low clouds and scattered showers to expand/move westward into central KY. There may be a slight increase in shower coverage given weak isentropic lift ahead of the low aloft, consistent with the HRRR although its reflectivity forecast is a bit overdone currently.
334 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS.
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 958 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON M/ CLOUDS OVER THE CWA AT LATE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS UPPER LOW PUSHES ONSHORE OVER CA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE RIDGE. COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MEANWHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND A COOL CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
244 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED AND SHIFTING EAST. DENVER CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE STRATUS WILL COMPLETELY WRAP THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE DENVER AREA. STILL COULD BE SOME WEAK CIN TO OVERCOME BUT WITH MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH INCOMING TROF FEEL THIS STABILITY WILL BE OVERCOME. WILL ALSO INCREASE POPS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NEW SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR COMES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE USA. RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THE NATIONAL WEATHER STORY REMAINS THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIVE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND IN WHAT MAY BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS. IOWAS WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SOUTHEAST CANADA HIGH PRESSURE WITH PREDOMINATELY COOL AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
139 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO NUDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS AND THE COLD AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LAKE AND SLIGHTLY INLAND A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. AND INTO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE LAKE. A MAJOR BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. A 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON EASTERLY WINDS.
334 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MAYBE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU. EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VICINITY.
348 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S. THE DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10. SOME COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN QUICKLY TOMORROW.
349 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US. MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WE WILL REACH TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
AN UPPER LOW IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT FOR THE EAST COAST AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. COOLER DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COMFORTABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1118 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS FROM THE GREAT WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL YIELD RATHER GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR LOCATED BELOW THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION WHICH APPEARED TO BE DEEP AND DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT IT TO REALLY FEEL LIKE AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
246 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 High pressure will remain strong over east Canada with a ridge extension down into the central U.
A MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL COOL OFF ONLY GETTING INTO THE HIGH 50S. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST FROM THE PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE THE INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE CLOSED LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.
HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. BUT COOL POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 20 MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
1206 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
200 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS RAIN ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING FAR EASTERN RIDGE ZONES. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT TODAY AND BECOME MORE BKN IN NATURE. ELECTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE ON JOAQUIN.
138 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. WITH BROAD SOUTHERN CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE ALLOWING FOR MAINTENANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. WITH JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE AMPLIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW LEVEL SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH MODEST GRADIENT NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH. SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE.
311 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 The region is currently in a northwest upper level flow pattern as an upper level low slowly spreads southeast into the Gulf Coast states. The northwest flow pattern will remain over the area through the weekend resulting in drier and cooler conditions through the weekend.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO SINK TO THE SOUTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. THINKING TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME WIND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY LAKESHORE FLOODING WOULD BE ALONG LAKE ERIE SOUTH OF MONROE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS VERY NEAR THE OHIO BORDER OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SOME MOISTURE IN AROUND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER KY/TN. BAND OF CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON HAS BEEN ERODING THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH AND MIXES DOWN.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL REMAIN PRETTY STRONG TODAY BUT WILL START TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST AND STARTS RIDING UP OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL WEAKEN IT INTO FRI. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHOULD HOLD THE CONV POTENTIAL DOWN NEAR ZERO.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 240 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS RAIN ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING FAR EASTERN RIDGE ZONES. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT TODAY AND BECOME MORE BKN IN NATURE. ELECTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
1212 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S AS OF 2 AM. AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SHOULD SHOULD BE FOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S.
329 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS WI AND MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI AND A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE. WHICH IN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
311 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
220 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AVIATION A VERY LARGE AND SLOW MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WEATHER THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.
With high pressure staying situated to the north, and developing low pressure moving overhead, despite post frontal cool/dry advection, the atmospheric column as a whole is having a hard time fully dispersing the clouds. By 00Z Friday, the evolution of the upper Low across the Tn valley will help induce an advecting moist tongue that should spell spotty shower activity in our far southeastern counties. By then, the southward migration of the Low ends up helping sweep tropical moisture from approaching Joaquin, as far north and west as the Commonwealth, including basically our eastern half of the CWA.
301 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 High pressure continues to build into the Midwest tonight with the ridge axis to the west and the high centered over the Hudson Bay. With sfc winds out of the northeast, and breezy at times, through the period, cooler temps will prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Sprawling high pressure centered over Quebec Canada and extending southwest into the southeast Great Plains will continue to pump cool dry air into the Mississippi Valley on northeast wind. generally in the low to mid 40s with potentially some upper 30s in well sheltered low-lying areas.
A COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT INTO VCT REGION FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING DOWN.
312 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS WITH AREA EXPECTED TO BE MORE UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGE DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AS SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM IOWA CONVECTION COULD FILTER SUN A BIT IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. A PORTION OF THIS VORT COULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS.
Although this is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls far short of the daily record highs in the low 100's in 2011/2012. Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle before anotehr mild overnight.
AND LOOKING FOR A HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CONUS.
346 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
The remainder of the short term continues to look warm and dry as a upper level ridge builds over the area.
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY BRINGING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THUS MAY SEE ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC OVER THE PLAINS. BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ALONG THE COAST OF BC. HELPING TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER AVERAGES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ULTIMATELY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN EASTERN UPPER BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WAVE WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY STALL OUT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
200 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH L/V EARLY MORNING WIND AND SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS.
WITH THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL SATURATING EVEN FURTHER.
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 UPDATE HAZY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONFECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE LOW BUT ALL OF IT HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST.
THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. WHILE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S.
336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
313 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN, south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across extreme northeast KS. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
314 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.