Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
319 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY KICK NORTHEAST TODAY.
1125 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH MISSOURI INTO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT FROM THE MORNING MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE COME TOGETHER WITH THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.
THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE HAS PASSED THROUGH KBPT/KLCH AND IS NOT ACCELERATING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT AND THIN LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ROUGHLY FROM NEWTON, TX TO CAMERON, LA AND IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST, HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW OVER TX DRAWS CLOSER THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER. WITH A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED THE MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 72 52 62 / 50 80 90 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 74 54 63 / 20 60 90 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 72 53 63 / 20 70 90 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 72 52 64 / 20 50 90 40 NC.
Quad 2 pcpn pattern just north of warm front will continue into early overnight hours. as the Low tracks into NE MO/WCNTRl IL by 00z (Tue). This will trail a relatively weak cold front over the extreme southeast portion of the area near Hopkinsville.
320 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 A BROAD AREA OF WEAK ASCENT IS PRESENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND AN EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FRESH SNOW COVER WILL DOMINATE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING EVEN AS IT SPLITS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CONTROLLING THE PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 334 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015/ LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHWEST FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO JUST EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL THEN START TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE WEAKENING. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
339 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW LOCATED S OF KFWD PROGRESSING NEWD AS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING IN THE WCB AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WCB IS IMPRESSIVE AND IN SOME CASES UNPRECEDENTED IN THE SERN STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST SHORTENING THE TROUGH TO RIDGE WAVELENGTH AND WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ONGOING ACROSS TX AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WCB CHARACTERISTICS. ON THE WRN/NRN SIDE OF THE LOW. DIFFICULT FCST TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WORKS AROUND THE NRN AND WRN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. A PIECE OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG SYSTEM OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT TUESDAY.
252 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY FAST MOVING S/WV RIDGE WILL TRANSITION THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT AND WILL BREAK DOWN MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD LOW. MODELS BRING THIS LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT AND EJECT IT INTO NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW DOES DEEPEN AS IT ENTERS ARIZONA AND IT WILL HAVE SOME MARINE LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAJOR BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK.
SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS FM THE NAM12 SHOW A LITTLE MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT A RIDGETOP. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT HOWEVER BEST QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WED THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK WLY FLOW ALOFT. BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE WEEKEND A SPLIT FLOW PTRN DVLPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN US.
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT. THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OR JUST LEADING THE UPPER LOW. SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN EXTREME NE'ERN TX BY 12Z.
349 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW AND THE PATH THAT IT TAKES AS IT EJECTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE LOW WAS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN MO. BUT MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCE SO FAR THIS WINTER WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PAC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL US ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE AREA WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTH LEAVING THE AREA LITTLE TO WORK WITH. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY COLD AND MOIST.
THE COLD FRONT AND THIN LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ROUGHLY FROM NEWTON, TX TO CAMERON, LA AND IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST, HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW OVER TX DRAWS CLOSER THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE TO MOVE NEAR KBPT BY 28/01Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER. WITH A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED THE MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
119 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THE GFS REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM/EC/GEM. THIS DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW IS DOWNRIGHT IMPRESSIVE. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW WITH H700-H500 MIXING RATIOS REACHING OVER 5 G/KG AND PWATS IN THE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z MONDAY. FREEZING RAIN REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. 50 TO 60 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FROM THE EAST SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET LATENT HEAT PROCESSES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN. EVEN IF THE VERY NEAR SURFACE REMAINS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS BETWEEN 12Z TO 00Z MONDAY.
835 PM PST SUN DEC 27 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL END BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER MONDAY. SOME 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS 35-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AT 8 AM PST AND 1-2 MBS FROM THE LOWER DESERTS. SOME AREAS ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE FREEZING POINT. ANOTHER COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING COOLING.
/ISSUED 325 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON NEW YEARS DAY. KEEPING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER PANHANDLE TODAY FROM MAKING ANY FURTHER PROGRESS TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE REGION HAS TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION AND THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE SHOWING COLD AND STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. TENDED TO GO WARMER SOUTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WEST. ENDED UP GOING CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH MEANT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAYS. THE BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ENSURING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
325 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON NEW YEARS DAY. KEEPING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER PANHANDLE TODAY FROM MAKING ANY FURTHER PROGRESS TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA.
1232 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HOLDING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST APPROACHES INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
218 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A NEW COLD FRONT OCCLUDES THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the region by late week and into the weekend promoting strong valley inversions, fog and low clouds, and sunshine in the mountains. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: A very slow moving cold front will continue to spread light dry snow across the region.
AND IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. THE CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
Cold upper level low continues to head off to the east through the Carolinas this afternoon. For this evening, clearing skies and diminishing winds will result in temperatures falling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Some patchy fog will be possible in the low-lying and valley locations, especially across southern and southeastern sections. For Saturday/Saturday night, high pressure ridge will continue to build in from the west and is forecast to be right over the region by the evening hours. While we'll have moisture aloft, the low-level profiles continue to look rather dry and lapse rates still rather meager.
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WITH NOTHING TO KICK OFF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TREND OF COOLER NIGHT-TIME LOWS AND WARM DAY-TIME HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 50S/80S RESPECTIVELY.
UPPER JET TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIG FURTHER S DURING SAT DRIVING A COLD FRONT S THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS LOOKING SO DRY. HIGHS ON SAT WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A MORE STABLE SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN NIL AS AREA REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A FLATTENING SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE. AND TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST.
WE HAVE LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND JUST A FEW CU LEFT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE PINNED UP RIGHT UP UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 8.
WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS NOW IN PLACE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. AND LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW 70.
ALOFT THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAD MOVED TO THE EAST COAST. WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
833 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 73 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 70 44 76 / 10 0 0 0.
/ISSUED 342 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) Lee trough will begin to develop Saturday, with southerly winds gradually increasing. Low level moisture return, however, will continue to be lacking and upper ridging will continue to suppress shower or thunderstorm development. Mild temperatures will continue with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 50s.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. GIVEN A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AHEAD OF THE LL TROUGH.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS TROUGH HAS PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN AS IT HAS TRACKED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE HIGH BASES THIS INITIAL TROUGH IS ADVECTING IN DO NOT THINK BASES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY MID LEVEL ACTIVITY TO BRING RAIN TO THE SURFACE. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WYOMING AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
LANDBREEZE WITH NW FLOW AT GLS TOWARD MORNING THEN WITH SEABREEZE CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION EXPECT SOUTHEAST FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COMES TO DOMINATE THE WINDS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY. IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE HIGH HAS PRODUCED A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY WAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, LEAVING OUR REGION WITH VERY DRY, SINKING AIR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OFF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, THE NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT. AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).
THE BEST RADAR ECHO /N OF LA CROSSE/ SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH/CURL SEEN IN WATER VAPOR NEAR RED WING AT 20Z.
/ISSUED 947 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/ NOT MUCH TO CHANGE TONIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE INTO THE REGION. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER TODAY.
1037 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AND THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. THIS TRANSITION ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOOOOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR, CLEARS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
BKN DECK OVER KTRI AND KTYS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS KEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY GET A BOOST FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THIS HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
1221 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
900 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON, ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BLANKET THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 30S. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL INTO SATURDAY. LOWS OF 45-50F TONIGHT WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-57 EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND LESS CLOUD COVER. LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME SSW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL IL.
739 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH HAS SPARKED SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH MAY SPARK A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH OTHERWISE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER TIME FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FOR SATURDAY, GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUNNIER, WARMER, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE THE SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER OR TWO OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LINGERING TROUGH. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
AS A TROF SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN. NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL INTO SATURDAY. LOWS OF 45-50F TONIGHT WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-57 EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND LESS CLOUD COVER. LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME SSW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL IL.
714 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AND THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
THE INTERESTING SITUATION HERE THOUGH IS THAT DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
I have continued some slight chance PoPs over our far northern counties, but given how dry the low levels are over the mid- Mississippi Valley think that precip. to the lower 50s over northwest parts of the FA.
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.