Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The heat is on! High temperatures across the CWA currently range from the low 90s east to low 100s out west and heat indices across much of the area above 100. A 500 mb ridge continues to build across the Southern Plains which will continue to keep warm air and dry conditions in place over Deep South Texas through the period. This ridging along with onshore flow will help temperatures feel much warmer than they are. Heat indices are above 100 degrees today and we are expecting much of the same, maybe even a touch warmer for Sunday.
The base of an upper level trough lies across the Southeast this morning. At the surface, the cold front that impacted the area yesterday has now moved off the East Coast with a low centered over the Mid Atlantic. Across the Tennessee Valley, CAA on the backside of the trough axis has resulted in a surface inversion with a stratus deck formed at the top of it. As the Mid Atlantic system keeps pushing eastward, the dense cloud cover will start to move out and the ridge currently stretched across the Plains will filter in drier air to help erode additional cloud cover and will finally slack the winds. The ridge will continue to build and the height rises combined with the plentiful sunshine will help daytime highs rebound up into the mid/upper 70s on Sunday.
A warmer and more unstable airmass over the eastern zones will help touch off a few thunderstorms this afternoon, some may be on the strong side containing small hail and/or a gusty wind. Afterwards, an upper trough lags behind today/s system with another system moving into Oregon.
Widespread showers continue to develop this afternoon as the region remains under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure draped across the Pacific Northwest. Showers this afternoon will be capable of brief heavy rain or graupel, snow in the higher terrain, and lightning under the stronger cells. A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, lowering snow level by Sunday morning to roughly 3000 feet.
328 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 A high pressure ridge builds slowly southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest this weekend.
Highs will get warmer each day as high pressure starts to overtake the region.
242 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Recent water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge stretching northeast from Texas into the Great Lakes with broad upper troughing to the northwest. A modified cold front was moving into western portions of Nebraska early this afternoon with a fairly strong pressure gradient over western and central Kansas. Have also further lowered highs as the low cloud sticks around much of the day. Warmth with little opportunity for precipitation remains in the forecast for the bulk of the work week with deep southwest flow as the upper ridge strengthens from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Sunday with no rainfall in sight with ridging aloft remaining in control. Models indicate a weak short wave trough moving around the northern periphery of the ridge tonight, which brings it across the northern portion of S TX. Moisture in the lowest/near surface level will be sufficient for increasing clouds tonight along with some light patchy fog early Sunday morning, mainly across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. The ridge aloft is progged to strengthen Sunday leading to another hot day with lots of sunshine and highs expected to reach 105 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Lows Sunday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than tonight's forecasted values with mid to upper 70s across a majority of S TX to near 80 along the islands.
146 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure was centered along the Virginia coast and will drift southeast tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region. High pressure, along with cooler and drier weather build in for Sunday.
255 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Post-frontal stratus continues to stream in from the north and east today, keeping temperatures on the cooler side for southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Dry conditions will prevail for the next 7 days with temperatures trending warmer. A cloud deck is pushing into the MO Bootheel and West TN this morning as another piece of upper level energy rotates around the upper low over the upper OH Valley. By late this afternoon high pressure at the surface and aloft build in and sunshine will increase east of the MS River. Upper ridging begins to strengthen over the region and surface winds become southeasterly. Upper ridging will dominate as an omega block forms over the CONUS.
241 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Drier and cooler conditions will develop after today's showers. Low pressure offshore may drift close enough to the region later in the week to bring another chance of showers. Cold temperatures aloft associated with a large upper low have led to quick destabilization and cumulus development as well as widespread but light shower activity. Also overnight a secondary push of cooler air as low pressure strengthens off of NC Outer Banks. The trough that is moving across today will drift offshore as a sharp ridge develops in the Mississippi Valley.
Robust PW plume has shifted well offshore and drier air is being entrained into the closed low circulation from the north. We anticipate gradual improvement with decreasing clouds and rain tapering off from northwest to southeast tonight into early Sunday as high pressure directs much drier/low-pwat air back into CPA. Highs trend anywhere from 3 to 10 degrees warmer for Mother's Day with maxT ranging from the mid 50s SE to low 60s in the far NW.
A warm night is therefore expected, with lows only falling to the low to mid 70s. Even though the 500mb ridge axis will start to shift eastward, 850mb temperatures will be about 25 deg C for most of the area, which is similar to today. Two limiting factors: The dryline won't advance as far south and east and the 850mb thermal ridge will be a bit further north.
An upper trough will continue to settle into the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs 10-20 degrees below normal.
105 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Any remaining showers will end tonight as upper level low pressure moves away. High pressure provides dry and cool conditions Sunday. Support for precipitation continues to erode as upper level low pressure pulls toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Easterly flow will keep some clouds and a few showers going into the night in the ridges, and precipitation may even end with a few snowflakes mixed in in eastern Tucker County. Sunday night will feature a mostly clear sky and low temperatures perhaps a tick or two warmer than the Saturday night levels.
Cool northeast flow lingers at the surface associated with our exiting low pressure system, which is currently centered over WV. Aloft we have a rapidly amplifying ridge entering in from the west, which will eventually lead to subsidence and decreasing clouds through the day.
Low pressure will move east off the Carolina coast this evening, where it will slowly drift east through the night, and high pressure builds to the north. A series of troughs will pivot southeast across the area from the low through the night. These trough passages are expected to be dry, but will add to cloud cover.
Decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures on Sunday. Discussion: Moisture wrapping around a closed low will keep some showers going through the rest of the afternoon in northern sections. The showers will decrease through the evening as the low pulls further to the east. Despite the sunshine, we will continue to have below normal temperatures due to a northerly flow behind the closed low and a building ridge to our west.
Current temperatures are in the low 60s to low 70s, coolest over portions of west Tennessee where a low deck of stratus has limited insolation. A ridge over the plains will shift east becoming oriented along the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow. A 593dm ridge will remain in place through midweek.
Broad upper trough across much of the Pacific Northwest will continue to bring scattered showers, cool temperatures and brisk conditions for the next several days.
Through Sunday: Dry weather conditions will continue into tomorrow, as ridging surface and aloft builds in following a departing mid/upper trough. We may see a few more high clouds spilling over the upper ridge during the day tomorrow, but nothing that will significantly limit insolation.
254 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Dry weather will continue through the period with temperatures currently near the highs for this afternoon, generally in the mid 60s away from Lake Michigan. Similar temps are expected on Sunday, mid/upper 60s except cooler along the IL Lake Michigan shore.
204 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Cooler and drier high pressure returns on Sunday and remains in place through mid week with moderating temperatures. Moisture and precipitation chances return by the end of the work week as a low pressure system moves on shore along the Southeastern coast. The low will slowly migrate offshore tonight, but continued DPVA in the NW flow around the system is still generating scattered to numerous showers east of I-77 through late afternoon or early evening. Heights will build from the west on Sunday, but abundant cloudiness on the NE flow under the approaching ridge will temperatures on the cool side of the guidance envelope through the period.
146 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure over West Virginia this morning will move southeast today. High pressure will then build in leading to a prolonged period of dry weather. The low pressure system to our east this morning will continue to drift east/southeast through the day. Northerly winds will be breezy across much of the area today, High pressure will start to build in through the period. It will be cool tonight with lows in the lower to mid 40s. This will occur as a strong Omega blocking pattern develops from the lower Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Great Lakes and beyond into eastern Canada.
The front washes out as high pressure builds down the state Sunday and brings in some drier air.
Looking for a rather tranquil short term period as an upper level ridge of high pressure gradually shifts east into the region, then becomes nearly stationary. By Sunday afternoon, this ridge is expected to stretch all the way from the central Gulf Coast northward through the lower Ohio River Valley and up into southeast Canada. Winds on the back side of this high will become more southerly with time as this occurs, leading to an extensive warming trend.
232 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Much cooler temperatures are in place across the area today behind the cold front that swept through last night. Breezy and cloudy conditions have persisted for most of the area as well as moisture wraps around the upper low situated over the Mid Atlantic. This cooler northeast flow and early cloud cover will keep temperatures on Sunday relatively cool, mainly in the low-to-mid 70s, which is several degrees below normal.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ A warm front, currently located along a line from Mineola Texas, southward to Carthage Texas, and southward to near Many Louisiana, will continue to slowly move northward across the region tonight. North of the boundary, conditions will be less humid, with lows generally in the low 60s. At the same time upper ridging will build into the region. This will yield warmer conditions and slightly higher humidity values areawide, along with dry conditions.
345 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 An upper level disturbance and associated Pacific cold front operating across UT/WY this afternoon will move into wrn Nebraska this afternoon/evening triggering a fairly robust area of thunderstorms. The NAM and RAP models accordingly, are suggesting a low bulk Richardson number which increases along a sfc cold front progged to move through the region late this afternoon and tonight. The CAMs are probably developing the segments along and just behind the cold front and represent the predicted storm mode for this forecast. This should lift a warm front back north and the models are in very good agreement developing thunderstorms north of Interstate 80. A check on the NAM and RAP models shows lapse rates becoming steep with the approach of the warm front.
However warmer mid-level temperatures should prevent much in the way of convection south of I-70, so will retain just slight chances north of the I-70 corridor. The low level moisture flux looks to result in stratus cigs by early Sunday morning which will remain more prevalent east of the I-135 corridor into the early afternoon. However, more sun in the afternoon to the east of the decaying weak surface front and developing dry-line across central Kansas will allow for much warmer temperatures.
Convection will develop in northwestern Nebraska and southern SD before tracking eastward tonight as the cold front pushes eastward. Overall the best chance for the highest precipitation amounts will be northwest of a line from Lexington to Columbus, NE. With the primary upper trough remaining across the northwestern quarter of the US, surface flow will become south to southeasterly again as another lee low develops Sunday.
Raob observations show heights have begun to fall over Southern Florida and the Keys due to a front and prefrontal boundary pressing against the weak ridge. The above normal moisture content at the low level of the atmosphere coupled with weak inhibition, instability, and warm southerly flow should aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms late today through the evening.
106 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Low level clouds associated with an upper trough axis stretching down into the area will gradually diminish from west to east tonight as the trough shifts to the east. Once the aforementioned trough axis moves east of the area, upper level ridging over the central CONUS begins to move over the Southeast. High pressure builds across the region resulting in a stretch of warming temperatures and dry weather that continues past the short term period.
Towards the surface, an area of low pressure will intensify today before shifting eastward across western Kansas tomorrow. Breezy southerly winds are expected through tonight before shifting to the north behind an associated cold front tomorrow morning. This will be short lived as lee troughing quickly develops across eastern Colorado shifting winds back to the south in the afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to range from the low 50s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas. An upper level ridge will extend from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region with a large long wave trough across the western United States.
Currently, long wave trough over the western CONUS with strong southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Thus, despite the low potential for sfc based storms, elevated convection is still expected as this forcing and strong shear combines with steep lapse rates which should begin after 20Z or so.
1224 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Upper ridging will build in from the west will promote mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures throughout the weekend. A large upper trough over the western CONUS should shove the main ridge axis just to east of the CWA putting most of the area under southwest flow. Warmer temperatures aloft should keep areas south of I-70 from seeing storms late tonight/early Sunday morning. The upper ridge will essentially stall over the central CONUS as it gets sandwiched between the upper low over the western Atlantic and the upper trough over the Rockies. This will promote much warmer temperatures to reside across the region going into the beginning of the week.
Lows tonight will be much milder than previous nights with many locations staying in the low to mid 60s.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the near term period as an upper-level trough pushes into the Western Atlantic and an upper-level ridge builds over the Central US. With subsidence in place from the deep-layer ridging and north to northwesterly flow allowing for a much drier airmass to continue filtering into the region (PWATs below an inch), mainly clear skies and dry conditions are expected for the entire weekend. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday will remain fairly warm, reaching the low 80s for our northern counties, and mid to upper 80s for points south.
159 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure was centered along the Virginia coast and will drift southeast tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region. High pressure, along with cooler and drier weather build in for Sunday.
406 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Dry and warm conditions remain across much of Upper Michigan this aftn as a ridge of high pressure extends across the Upper Great Lakes. Surface and low-level high pressure over western Quebec prevails through Sunday and will result in mainly dry conditions across Upper Michigan to end the weekend. The far western UP could see some passing showers and slight chance of some thunder Sunday night as the low lifts into far northern Manitoba late that night.
Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure settles moves in through Sunday. As the upper level trough that brought in the cold front moves further east Sunday, winds will not be as breezy tomorrow as they switch to the north and northeast by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow and generally range from the mid to upper 80s in our Florida counties to the mid 80s across southeast AL and SW Georgia.
/Updated at 1135 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022/ A low pressure system is slowly moving east towards the Atlantic Coast over the Carolinas. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s in the south to the upper 60s in the north where persistent cloud cover is causing cooler conditions. mostly clear skies and high pressure will allow temperatures to be more uniform through the day with high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Upper-level ridging continues to move overhead this afternoon with an upstream broad trough currently moving across the northwestern portion of the U. Clouds may linger through much of the day Sunday with highs generally in the low 70s east to around 80 west.
134 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure was centered along the Virginia coast and will drift southeast tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region. High pressure, along with cooler and drier weather build in for Sunday.
720 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 For the ArkLaTex terminals, cu field W of I-49 that is our returning warm front. /Tonight through Sunday Night/ A warm front, currently located along a line from Mineola Texas, southward to Carthage Texas, and southward to near Many Louisiana, will continue to slowly move northward across the region tonight. North of the boundary, conditions will be less humid, with lows generally in the low 60s. At the same time upper ridging will build into the region. This will yield warmer conditions and slightly higher humidity values areawide, along with dry conditions.
924 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 High pressure will provide dry conditions Sunday. Clouds will continue to clear from north to south tonight as high pressure builds. With wind speeds expected to range between 5-10kts until dawn, frost concerns are expected to be on the low-side despite temps falling into the mid-30s. Sunday night will feature a mostly clear sky and low temperatures perhaps a tick or two warmer than the Saturday night levels.
The showers and storms continue to push south of the area over the next couple of hours with clearing conditions overnight and into Sunday as the front washes out and high pressure builds into the area.
/Issued 232 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022/ Much cooler temperatures are in place across the area today behind the cold front that swept through last night. Breezy and cloudy conditions have persisted for most of the area as well as moisture wraps around the upper low situated over the Mid Atlantic. This cooler northeast flow and early cloud cover will keep temperatures on Sunday relatively cool, mainly in the low-to-mid 70s, which is several degrees below normal.
Low level clouds associated with an upper trough axis stretching down into the area will gradually diminish from west to east tonight as the trough shifts to the east. Once the aforementioned trough axis moves east of the area, upper level ridging over the central CONUS begins to move over the Southeast. High pressure builds across the region resulting in a stretch of warming temperatures and dry weather that continues past the short term period.
/DC/ Prior discussion below: Through Sunday: Dry weather conditions will continue into tomorrow, as ridging surface and aloft builds in following a departing mid/upper trough. We may see a few more high clouds spilling over the upper ridge during the day tomorrow, but nothing that will significantly limit insolation.
249 PM MST Sat May 7 2022 Strong high pressure over the region will persist today matching temperatures seen yesterday with highs around 100 degrees across the lower deserts.
Sunday should then be a pleasant day with noticeably warmer temps into the lower 70s. Post-frontal stratus continues to stream in from the north and east today, keeping temperatures on the cooler side for southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
High pressure building south down the eastern seaboard will push the frontal boundary into central FL allowing winds to veer N/NE along the Volusia and Brevard coasts in the afternoon. Winds turn N/NE Sun aftn as high pressure ridge builds southward east of the Appalachians with speeds 12-15 knots across the north/central waters.
514 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 High pressure will provide dry conditions Sunday. Previous Discussion: Support for precipitation continues to erode as upper level low pressure tracks east. Easterly flow will keep some clouds and a few showers going into the night in the ridges. Clouds will slowly clear from north to south tonight as high pressure builds. Sunday night will feature a mostly clear sky and low temperatures perhaps a tick or two warmer than the Saturday night levels.
618 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Dry weather will continue through the period with temperatures currently near the highs for this afternoon, generally in the mid 60s away from Lake Michigan. Similar temps are expected on Sunday, mid/upper 60s except cooler along the IL Lake Michigan shore.
Recent water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge stretching northeast from Texas into the Great Lakes with broad upper troughing to the northwest. A modified cold front was moving into western portions of Nebraska early this afternoon with a fairly strong pressure gradient over western and central Kansas. Have also further lowered highs as the low cloud sticks around much of the day. Warmth with little opportunity for precipitation remains in the forecast for the bulk of the work week with deep southwest flow as the upper ridge strengthens from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes.
915 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 (Issued 915 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022) Forecast for tonight is on track as the ridge continues to shift east away from the Great Lakes. Surface dew points should get into the low to mid 40s with not as much mixing as we saw today. That said, the low levels still look fairly dry on forecast soundings from the RAP/NAM/GFS for tomorrow.
627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 An upper level disturbance and associated Pacific cold front operating across UT/WY this afternoon will move into wrn Nebraska this afternoon/evening triggering a fairly robust area of thunderstorms. The NAM and RAP models accordingly, are suggesting a low bulk Richardson number which increases along a sfc cold front progged to move through the region late this afternoon and tonight. The CAMs are probably developing the segments along and just behind the cold front and represent the predicted storm mode for this forecast. This should lift a warm front back north and the models are in very good agreement developing thunderstorms north of Interstate 80. A check on the NAM and RAP models shows lapse rates becoming steep with the approach of the warm front.