Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will pass through the area today resulting in subtle cooling but little chance of precipitation. Highs through the week will generally range from the mid 50s and 60s, which will continue the streak of warmer than normal conditions. The only clouds expected will be from shallow cumulus that develops over the higher terrain in the Panhandle and over the Palouse where some lingering moisture remains.
UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTING TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CO CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
302 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD QUICKLY OUT WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TAX HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
148 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
1252 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
131 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 AVIATION/HYDRO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
222 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD QUICKLY OUT WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
SO ANTICIPATE THE LOWER RANGE IN AMOUNTS FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OF INTEREST LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
351 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NEB WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE LOW/TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODELS ALL HAVE A WEAK DRY SLOT GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Weak cold front has made it down to near COU and just south of PPQ early this morning. Will get high level cloudiness today ahead of the upper level trough centered over the southern Rockies. High temperatures will be a little cooler across northeast MO and west central IL compared to yesterday north of the cold front.
AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE. THOUGH SOME ENHANCED AREAS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CONTDVD. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN PAINTING SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE SLV OVERNIGHT. 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MTS.
312 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
414 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW.
Upper level high pressure is centered out of the Gulf with the northern extent of the ridging arching over the northern Gulf coast. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, dipping into the low to mid 60s overnight.
348 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE RIGHT AT FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A MAJORITY OF CITIES SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST BY THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES WITH PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH THE DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH KEEPING THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD LEADING TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT TIMES. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST INTO THE NATURE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING.
337 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
628 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
512 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
210 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 1140 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 UPPER LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AS WIDESPREAD SNOW NOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS RAMPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF DENVER AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW IS PUSHING INTO KS. WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE UPSLOPED NORTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS IS DIMINISHING. UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AND OVERCAST SKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ALL MORNING AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOW IS BRINGING WITH IS STRONG NORTH WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA-WIDE.
Due to thin nature of the lower tropospheric moisture, mixed layer capes will be mitigated to 400 j/kg or less. We expanded the Wind Advisory eastward into the Highway 65 corridor. Tonight's frontal passage will bring a colder airmass to the Ozarks, as temperatures fall into the lower 40s tonight.
AND INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
256 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW WINDING UP OVER ERN EARLY THIS MRNG. UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD TODAY TO NEAR THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB STATE LINE BY LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY WY AS WELL AS THE NRN/CNTRL BLKHLS AND NERN FOOTHILLS WHERE TOTALS MAY APPROACH 6 INCHES (HIGHER IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS). DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
334 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A strong upper level storm system and associated cold fronts were sweeping across the central plains this afternoon.
332 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DID NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY JUST YET AS THE WINDOW FOR STRONGER WINDS LOOKS TO BE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NAM HAS A PUSH OF PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY IN THE DAY AND A SECONDARY RUN OF PRECIP WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL YIELD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS THROUGH. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT WHEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD AGAIN PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROCHING COLD FRONT.
A cold front will then move across the area this evening, shifting winds around to the northwest and north. /issued 332 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A dryline will move across the forecast area this morning followed by a Pacific cold front this afternoon, resulting in increasing west winds of 20 to 30 mph, with higher gusts. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms south of a line form Junction to San Saba this evening, otherwise, post-frontal temperatures tonight will be in the lower 40s across all of the forecast area.
FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS COULD ACTUALLY BE TOO HIGH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ARE MODEST.
341 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Today will consist of a variety of weather concerns as a deepening upper low approaches and enters the area throughout the day. The low-level jet which has remained fixed over the Southern and Central Plains will persist ahead of the eastward moving storm system. Once the dryline enters the CWA in the late afternoon and moisture does finally deepen, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the boundary in the warm sector as a warm front will also lift into southern Iowa.
209 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY.
329 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CO/KS/NE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY TEMPS WILL POP INTO THE LOWER 40S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NW COAST WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND OVER MOST REMAINING ZONES THURSDAY.
Accumulations will generally be on the order of 2 to 4 inches with the higher mountainous terrain potentially seeing up to 6 inches. Wind could also be a potential issue Thursday, especially on Flathead Lake where southerly winds in advance of the approaching cold front could become gusty and result in 2 to 3 foot waves across the lake. Elsewhere it will be a breezy spring day with widespread gusts above 30 mph along and behind the cold front Thursday afternoon. Showers, some quite strong, will continue into Thursday evening and these along with progressively lowering snow levels behind the cold front may necessitate expanding and/or extending the Winter Weather Advisory area.
LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 4-5 PM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW. THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT.
215 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Upper pattern has a strong upper level closed low swinging across the Rockies today and onto the plains.
306 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 0 C/KM OVER TOP OF A PLUME OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS ON THE HIGHER END OF INSTABILITY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
GETTING SOME MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE S-SW OF LA CROSSE PER OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POL CC PRODUCT. LOSS OF ICE ALOFT WILL CAUSE A FREEZING DRIZZLE ENVIRONMENT. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE HIGHWAY 18 CORRIDOR FOR MORE ICING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.
248 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
POWERHOUSE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING TO MISSOURI WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY SNOWPACK THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SLOW MELTING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
1229 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW THE FORECAST AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 07Z. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT POP/QPF/SNOWFALL GRADIENT OVER NW WI WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH AND THE MOIST AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE FOCUS REMAINS ON PRICE COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
Clouds will increase overnight in advance of a cold front that will move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOOPS FROM MIMIC TPW REVEAL THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DRY LINE HAS PUSHED OUT EAST TO NEAR A OKC-ABI-OZA LINE WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING GUSTY DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST HAVING MOVED INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE. AS THIS STORM COMPLEX LIFTS OUT TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE AND INTO SETX NEAR CLL AROUND 3 AM AND THROUGH THE METRO AREA BY 7-8 AM.
The low moisture quality present at this time is resulting in only a narrow corridor of surface based instability centered along the KS/MO border, and this diminishes with time tonight as it shifts eastward along/ahead of the advancing cold front and as steeper mid level lapse rates are displaced well eastward. morning as the upper trof progresses eastward, and may have cleared the CWA by 18z.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY, AS A WARM FRONT, WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE IN FROM 09-15Z. DEEPENING WITH TIME TO LIFT AND PUSH OUT THE LOW CIGS. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS.
1232 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 TEMPS STAYING COOLER ACROSS THE FRESH SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF TOWNER COUNTY. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER FROM CURRENT TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF TODAY ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N-S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. EVEN SO WITH COOLER COLUMN IN PLACE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A BIT BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
315 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S WINDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
342 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND AND OVER WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON AND THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP ROADWAYS CLEAR. ASCENT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
/ISSUED 1044 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
308 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WITH THE RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION LINE RAPIDLY COLLAPSING SWD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING SURFACE CYCLONE.
AND INCREASE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
THEY DO DIVERGE ON TIMING OF THE ADVANCE OF THE ELONGATED COLD FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN END. WENT WITH A BLEND ON TIMING THAT KEEPS POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SHOWING A TREND FOR IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TODAY.
The cooling trend continues Thurs night with temps expected to drop aob the freezing mark across the region. Some uncertainty remains how low temps will drop, but currently trending at or just below the cooler guidance. then become southwest as a cold front sweeps through around 15Z. A cold front will then push through around 15Z with winds backing to southwest and gusting to near 30 knots.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH AROUND MID EVENING.
207 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW TRACKING THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE FA THEREFORE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA TODAY.
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH.
252 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Fire and severe weather concerns dominate the forecast for the next 6 to 9 hours, with a dryline sitting just west of the forecast area and a cold front moving through the panhandle region. Below normal temperatures will follow the aforementioned cold front for Thursday and Thursday night.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW. THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES WESTWARD. THIS SHORT-LIVED DRYING OF THE LOW/MID LAYERS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR A MIX-OUT SURFACE-TO-H800. AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER WYOMING. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT WARM AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL 10-15 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A TRANSITION TO A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BUT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS KEEPING THE FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO EARLY EVENING AND WIND ADVISORIES THAT GO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE DEPENDING ON TRENDS. CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS LEADING TO BELOW 10 PERCENT RH ALREADY IN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH WINDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
145 PM PDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.