Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
930 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 New Information added to update section Although a gradual increase in high clouds is expected overnight, this shouldn't prevent temperatures from falling into the lower to middle 30s over northern WI. The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a sprawling area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Otherwise, the high pressure to remain in firm control of our weather as it stretches from the Upper MS Valley, over the Great Lakes, into southeast Canada. The high pressure is expected to slowly drift to the east on Monday and still be the main weather feature over northeast WI.
Places further inland may yet see temps reach into the low to mid 60s, with the diurnal cloud cover possibly limiting the warming that is going on at the sfc this afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight than last night but still chilly, with lows in the low to mid 30s and areas of frost. Despite deep mixing tomorrow winds will be light in the low levels of the atmosphere so not expecting any winds more than 10 mph.
922 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 With high pressure bringing dry easterly winds into our area, the arrival of rain with a storm system to our southwest looks to hold off until Tuesday night, when a warm front lifts into our area.
/Issued 349 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022/ The low pressure system that brought us our active weather today will eject to the northeast this afternoon/evening as the upper- level trough begins to amplify over the southern Plains. Tomorrow another disturbance dancing along the base of the amplifying trough to the west will bring yet another round of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Luckily, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be less organized than the low pressure system we had today.
Mostly dry conditions prevail thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure aloft. Short term (This Afternoon through Tuesday): Strong high pressure in the mid-levels centered over South Florida will gradually move north through Tuesday, but still provide for relatively stable conditions for the latter part of May. Low temperatures tonight/Tuesday morning will continue on the warm side, ranging from around 80 in the SE metro corridor to the lower 70s interior.
1008 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure will build into the region through Tuesday, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend. Mid level ridging across the region will shift off to the east through Tuesday night ahead of an upper level trough/low moving through the central US. A potent low pressure system will impact the region for the first few days of the period. A cold front trailing the low will lie nearly parallel to the meridional upper flow, contributing to the rather slow progress of the cold front.
700 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 With high pressure bringing dry easterly winds into our area, the arrival of rain with a storm system to our southwest looks to hold off until Tuesday night, when a warm front lifts into our area.
Isentropic lift increases throughout the lower and mid levels with saturation working down. Ensemble/historic data is somewhat mixed with CIPS analogs not terribly impressive but GEFS and ECMWF ESAT QPFs near extreme values, though conspicuously centered where CIPS is the lowest.
Downstream, upper level ridging will hold along the SE states into the Atlantic through the short-term period with warm and modestly moist conditions persisting across the region.
Tomorrow, a warm front will lift northward across Middle Tennessee, so temperatures on Tuesday will be considerably warmer than today. Scattered convection will begin developing tomorrow afternoon and certainly by tomorrow night as moisture increases ahead of the next cold front.
Analysis showed a 110+ knot upper level jet digging into the back side of the trough. The upper trough is forecast to close off into an upper low over southern Colorado by Tuesday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop overnight as the main upper trough closes off and approaches the region from the west. Some model solutions show some lingering light to moderate rainfall across western sections of the area into Tuesday morning, associated with the upper low as it moves out. The upper low is forecast to lift northeast out of the western High Plains Tuesday night.
Mainly clear skies can be seen across southeast Arizona as upper-level ridging tries to push in from the west. The upper pattern is slow to progress as troughing to our east deepens today and tomorrow.
Scattered showers associated with a weak upper trough will continue across the north this evening, mainly from Baker County to the West Central Mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Tuesday.
(Tomorrow through Monday) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect the area Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper low approaches from the west, with some locally heavy rainfall possible.
Don't see the clouds going away from where they currently are and they may actually expand over the region during the overnight hours as the boundary slowly begins to lift northward as a warm front. Afternoon highs should be in the low to middle 70s.
Afternoon highs should be in the low to middle 70s.
Closer to sunrise, we expect to see redevelopment of convection to our south (mainly along the central Gulf Coast) as a maritime tropical airmass begins to return northward to the south of a warm front.
An upper low will develop will to our south early Tuesday.
and a warm front lifts north. with the higher amounts across the SRN portion of AR.
Rain chances will increase tonight as a trough deepens to the west. Dry lower levels will continue to hold off rain showers this afternoon, but as the lower layers start to saturate down to the surface later tonight, we should see some light showers develop. The upper trough will take its time moving across the Central Plains, eventually becoming more of a closed low as it reaches Kansas, which will allow cool and showery weather to linger through Wednesday.
Temperatures tonight are expected to remain in the low 40s with a few upper 30s across some of our western zones as skies clear off from west to east. The upper low that was forecast to track into Minnesota Wednesday looks like it will stay south of potentially cut off from the main flow through the period.
306 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure continues to build into New England today, then drifts to east of the area by midweek.
300 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022 An upper trough will deepen over the southern Rockies today and energy dropping through the trough will end up in Colorado this afternoon. On the northern side of the trough (over Montana) weak energy will swing in and upper divergence will increase. Wednesday looks dry as an upper ridge nudges into the area.
Figuring on intervals of clouds and sun in our east should allow afternoon temperatures to push into the lower 70s. Closed upper level low will bring uncertainty to pop timings midweek, but good chances for rain.
159 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through the middle of the week with high pressure in control.
This supports the notion of going with cooler guidance. Overnight mins will also remain on the cool side with values in the lower 40s. There should be a west to east gradient of highs with the coolest readings across the eastern zones in closer proximity to the low.
5 inch range, but the higher totals and the higher rainfall rates have been maintained to the west of the area with a continued weakening trend overall the farther east the storms progress.
High pressure is anchored overhead into this evening, before starting to ease eastward. Expect highs in the 60s, mainly mid to upper, cooler near Lk Huron. Thunderstorms and locally heavy rain Forecast period begins with an an area of low pressure over the central Great Plains with a closed 564mb low lingering just a bit behind. The eastern upper peninsula should see the highest amounts of storm total precipitation, with storm totals reaching around an inch as the warm front drapes across the upper peninsula providing more lift and pooling of deeper moisture.
Monitoring the upper level longwave trof that is still digging southward into the southern plains this morning (+140 knot upper jet streak punching south-southeastward through the intermountain west on the backside of the longwave trof). Over this region, the upper level split in the flow pattern being enhanced by this digging longwave trof, is creating a rather lackluster jet level steering flow. Models take a portion of energy out of the longwave trof and move it up through the central plains later today and tonight, and on up into the northern plains/western Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
357 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Today and Tonight: With high pressure persisting off the East Coast of Florida and a low pressure system developing over the Southern High Plains, southwesterly flow aloft will continue across our forecast area today. The front will lift northward as a warm front throughout today as the low develops over TX/OK. Given the lifting warm front and possibility for a squall line oriented favorably with deep-layer wind shear, will also advertise an isolated tornado threat in the Marginal severe risk today.
245 AM EDT Tuesday May 24 2022 A weak low pressure will linger over southern and eastern NC today. The low pressure and associated weak front will push to the coast tonight. High pressure to the north will build into our region through Wednesday.
An upper trof amplifies over the central states through the period while an upper ridge extends mainly from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure will continue ridging into the region from the west through late Tuesday night, but will weaken as a cold front approaches the forecast area from the west on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night about normal for this time of the year, ranging from the mid/upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s closer to and along the coast.
Lastly, with cloud cover forecast to linger overhead much of the day, will likely only see highs climb into the low to mid 60s. Heading into Tuesday night, expect shower coverage and intensity to increase as a strong upper level low slowly ejects northeastward across the central CONUS. As alluded to in the previous discussion, should see flow in the low to mid levels back and bring deeper moisture northward during the overnight period, with PWATs ranging from 0. Expect rain chances to gradually diminish from west to east late Wednesday afternoon into evening as the aforementioned upper level low departs the region. Currently have values only rising into the low to mid 50s east of I-29, with areas west ranging from the mid to upper 50s.
212 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest into the western Dakotas. Splitting upper level trof moves into the plains today. Upper low closes off over the Central Plains, while weaker northern stream trof crosses the Northern Plains. A few showers possible over south central South Dakota tonight/early Wednesday on northern periphery of upper low.
Further upstream, an open mid level wave of energy over southern AR lifts north into MO overnight, as the mean long wave drives a developing cold front out of the Southern Plains eastward toward the Lower MS Valley. While cluster analysis has consistently trended the peak QPF/stronger storms to our south, across the Lower MS Valley, the models have also been consistently hitting upon an axis of afternoon-evening instability with 0-1KM MUCAPEs approaching 3000 J/KG across our east.
An amplifying, planetary wave train will begin strengthening across the CONUS and western Atlantic today, with a deepening longwave trough diving into the Southern Plains and a mid-level high pressure quickly building off the Car/GA/FL eastern coastline. Coverage tomorrow, expected to be similar but increase slightly in the western portions of the forecast area, and the trough to the west slowly shifts eastward. Thiem Wet, unsettled week resolves into the weekend as drier and slightly cooler temperatures return to the area.
However, this activity will likely translate more to the east as we move toward sunrise as the low level jet intensifies. If that were not enough, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon across southwest Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front and rapidly become an MCS and spread to the east. Even in the wake of this complex, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night as a developing upper level low moves out of Colorado and into western Oklahoma.
Clouds are expected to quickly dissipate later this morning as a warm front shifts northward across the area, which should allow a quick warmup into the upper 70s and 80s by this afternoon. In addition, deeper low level moisture behind the warm front will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread northward from late morning into the afternoon hours, with chance pops warranted.
150 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Low pressure exits overnight. High pressure rides north of the area Tuesday, then gives way to a south to southeast flow of warmer air through midweek, ahead of the next system. A low pressure system at the surface slides along to the southeast of the area while a disturbance crosses at the upper levels. The low will move off toward the East Coast overnight, allowing for precipitation chances to gradually taper off. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be warmer than today, but still a few degrees below normal. Highs in the mid 70s are expected across the lowlands with mid 50s to upper 60s along the higher elevations. A warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area on Wednesday, creating a chance for showers and thunderstorms, and leading to warmer temperatures.
A trof will be deepening and taking shape over the southern Rockies tonight and will evolve into a vigorous closed low system over the TX/OK panhandle region by tomorrow afternoon. Cyclogenesis will take place over the southern Plains on the lee of the Rockies, and will drag a warm front north across Texas and Louisiana tonight, and this front will start to push into Arkansas early tomorrow morning.
The cold front will scour out low-level moisture with most of the wrap- around showers/thunderstorms remaining displaced north of the CWA, with the surface cyclone positioning in vicinity of the northwestern Permian Basin by 24/12Z. Cloud cover will begin to clear out in the southwestern zones first, though the northerly breeze/magnitude of CAA will keep temperatures cool to mild, ranging from the lower 60s across the extreme southwestern TX PH and into the middle 70s in the southern South and Rolling Plains. Frontal-driven convection is likely to clear the forecast area by or very early into the Tuesday evening portion of the forecast as the upper trough axis will be shifting to the east of the area leaving increasing subsidence in its wake while low level focus will shift south with the front and thunderstorm outflow.
Currently, low clouds continue to expand across the area, keeping temperatures in the low to mid-40s thus far tonight. This is driven by good upper divergence aloft, with the low center sitting in the broad right entrance of a jet axis centered over the upper midwest. The upper low will begin to slowly push east of the area by tomorrow morning, with precipitation ending from west to east through tomorrow afternoon. This should also coincide with gradually clearing skies, though the slow progression of the upper low leads to low confidence in how quickly we will clear. Heights build aloft as an upper ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies into late week. This upper ridge looks to be the dominate weather feature into the first half of the Memorial Day Weekend.
The last in a series of troughs will cross the area today.
Deep layer ridging and dry mid/upper levels will prevail across south Florida through midweek. Guidance does depict a bit more favorable moisture advection on Wednesday as Atlantic moisture is transported around the base of the ridge. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the upper 80s along the east coast, to the lower 90s across the interior and west coast. Heat indices will have an identical distribution, ranging from the low to mid 90s.
High pressure centered across Quebec continues to result in light cool easterly flow. Shower activity with a trough to the south has now shifted east. Today, jet dynamics are forecast to dig low pres ovr the srn high plains through Tuesday with split flow dvlpg ovr the CONUS and ridging ovr the ern U. Latest model data indicates gradually increasing rain chance late Wednesday as the eastern CONUS ridge begins to erode, with further warming and a humidity increase for wrn zones especially.
Surface analysis continues to show surface ridging off of the southeastern United States, promoting moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across our coastal waters, with marine platforms across the reef measuring 15 to 20 knots. Temperatures across the island chain are still sitting in the lower 80s, likely due to the combination of moderate to fresh breezes crossing the warmer waters of the Straits of Florida and the widely scattered cloud cover as observed with Nighttime Microphysics. By this weekend, a deep trough will slide eastwards across the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in another heightened rain chances as a result of moist confluent flow spreading across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters.
222 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure over the region through mid week keeps us dry with temperatures fairly close to late May averages.
1142 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 With high pressure bringing dry easterly winds into our area, the arrival of rain with a storm system to our southwest looks to hold off until Tuesday night, when a warm front lifts into our area.
A cold front will shift winds from the northwest at all TAF sites by 18Z. Hennig (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper trough over SD/NE this afternoon extends SW back to AZ and will move across NM tonight into the Panhandle. On Tuesday a closed low will develop in the base of the trough over CO/NM and it will roll into Wrn OK/KS Tuesday night. A cold front will move down into the area late tonight and early Tuesday. The best chance for rain with this event will be the rest of this afternoon and this evening over the Lower Trans Pecos and NE Permian Basin.
With onshore flow in the low levels, some low clouds are likely across portions of the Coast, Olympic Peninsula, and the Sound.
328 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 A warm front over the Deep South early this morning will lift to the KY/TN border by this evening. High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will provide us with a light east breeze. Tonight the warm front will continue to push northward and will be north of the area by morning.
A mid-level dry slot looks to develop and rotate northeastward across south central Kansas during the afternoon/early evening to the east of the deepening closed upper low across the central high Plains. While the coverage of the higher efficiency rainfall will diminish, scattered areas of rain and drizzle will continue tonight thru Wednesday as the deeper tropospheric low migrates slowly eastward across Kansas.
This will occur as a warm front lifts northward from the coast back into our region later this morning into the afternoon. E/NE winds will be trending more SE as the warm front lifts back across the region with speeds increasing to 10-15 kts with higher gusts. The evening satellite imagery reveals that the low stratocu field has not re-enveloped areas which did scatter out late this afternoon, with the weak low level capping inversion noted on the 00Z KSHV raob expected to maintain these low cigs in place, especially as the warm front begins to lift back N late. No changes need to the ongoing FFA attm, with the greatest potential for more organized heavy rainfall occurring Tuesday night/Wednesday ahead of the amplifying upper low and its attendant trough that will traverse the Srn Plains.
248 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure rides north of the area Tuesday, then gives way to a south to southeast flow of warmer air through midweek.
An upper level trough will begin to encroach on the area tomorrow night, but precipitation chances look to be less. Some cooler 850mb temperatures wrapping around the low pressure system and rain cooling will provide this brief dip in temperatures. The west edge of the rain area that will move into parts of west central and north central MN will exit to the east Wednesday night as northern stream 500 mb short wave trough moves through.
105 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through the middle of the week with high pressure in control.
The slower, farther west trend in the models continues, and the latest GFS even shows the upper trough axis becoming negatively tilted. A ridge of will expand across the Rockies by weeks end. Long wave troughing will be developing across the western CONUS during this time, and begins to move east the into the region during the second half of the weekend. As flow aloft becomes southwesterly and increases ahead of the upper troughing, shear will increase and there will be at least some threat of some stronger storms from time to time through the weekend.
1149 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Highlights: 1) Cool 2) Chances for showers and storms through Wednesday Changes: 1) Extended Flood Watch into SE KS 2) Adjusted precipitation chances and respective timing Headline: Flood Watch from midnight through Tuesday night There is a low pressure system positioned over the Front Range/southern Rockies which will deepen as it slowly tracks east through the Central Plains. There is some uncertainty in the heaviest axis which could waft in either direction, but the general theme is still relatively the same with the highest amounts in south central Kansas.
A cold front will approach the I-20 corridor around mid afternoon, then move into the Concho Valley by late afternoon or early evening, finally approaching the I-10 by early to mid evening. Cooler temperatures along with gusty north winds are forecast behind the front.
127 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 High pressure will build into the region through Tuesday, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend. Mid level ridging across the region will shift off to the east through Tuesday night ahead of an upper level trough/low moving through the central US. A potent low pressure system will impact the region for the first few days of the period. A cold front trailing the low will lie nearly parallel to the meridional upper flow, contributing to the rather slow progress of the cold front.
Showers continue to shift south and east and out of the Upper Ohio Valley, leaving but a few lingering showers across the higher elevations. Jet dynamics are forecast to dig low pres ovr the srn high plains through Tuesday with split flow dvlpg ovr the CONUS and ridging ovr the ern U. Latest model data indicates gradually increasing rain chance late Wednesday as the eastern CONUS ridge begins to erode, with further warming and a humidity increase for wrn zones especially.
1003 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance Although a gradual increase in high clouds is expected overnight, this shouldn't prevent temperatures from falling into the lower to middle 30s over northern WI. The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a sprawling area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Otherwise, the high pressure to remain in firm control of our weather as it stretches from the Upper MS Valley, over the Great Lakes, into southeast Canada.
Temperatures are holding steady in the low to mid 60s with light easterly winds. The latest surface analysis places a 1000mb low near the Texas Panhandle with high pressure over the Great Lakes. Aloft, water vapor imagery reveals a deepening trough over the Rockies.
This will setup southeasterly low level flow and warm temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.