Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TROF OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB OF HANDLING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE PAST DAY, WITH THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ABSENT FROM MODEL CROSS SECTIONS.
303 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY.
655 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.
WITH A FEW LOCALES REACHING THE LOWER EIGHTIES. AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN COOLER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH A WEAK BROAD UPPER RIDGE.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY AS ONE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MINOR RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER WITH ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER TODAY.
MOZLEY WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAS BROUGHT E-NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS/ERN MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP JUST SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR A FEW OF THE HIGHER PEAKS INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SAT MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. WITH READINGS NEAR/OVER 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ARK VALLEY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.
DESPITE BEING IN A POST-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
638 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
WARMER TODAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS BRINGING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DECREASING TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST. WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
DESPITE BEING UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. BUT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN WI SO KEPT THE MENTION THERE.
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain across the Desert Southwest, while while an inverted trough/upper level low remains across much of Texas. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO BRING FAIR WX FOR MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
VERTICAL ASCENT FROM A WEAK MID LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS ACROSS CNTRL TX MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ALONG WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL REACH OUR AREA AROUND 09Z.
MUCH OF THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING. IT WILL USHER IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS AND HELP TO SUPPRESS INTERIOR VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO A MORE REASONABLE MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPWARD SWING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.
Temperatures had cooled into the lower 70s, under mostly clear skies and light southwesterly breezes.
AS THE UA RIDGE ONCE CENTERED ACROSS SRN CALI IS SHIFTING NEWRD TOWARDS THE AREA. NOT ONLY WILL IT CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH /AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP/ ACROSS ERN TX TO REMAIN THERE. THE REASON IT IS NOT EVEN HOTTER IS MAINLY BECAUSE THE UA RIDGE IS NOT CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONE WHERE AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW EXPANDS EWD THRU EARLY WEEK FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW OVER NOAM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS. 00Z RUNS BUILD THIS RIDGE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
Frontal boundary is expected to lift back to the north and east as a warm front tonight.
BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET DIRECTED TOWARD THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG.
219 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT RAIN HAS ALL BUT CEASED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF DIGS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TAX SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY SPREADING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
High pressure over the desert southwest will migrate east into the Central Plains by the middle of the week. An inverted upper trough currently over east-central Texas will get caught under the high and pushed westward increasing rain chances mainly west of the Pecos River. Lower heights accompanying the trough will allow temps to drop but only slightly. Later in the week the upper high shifts back to the west and amplifies over the Rockies increasing temperatures back to near normal.
/ISSUED 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THREAT DROPS OFF AS WELL AS THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT HIGHLIGHTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET WIND SPEEDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-STANLEY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MOST AREAS.
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (AROUND 40%) OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL EXTEND COOLER COASTAL AIR A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THIS COMING WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION.
BUT NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SRN OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A SAGGING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES ACROSS THE N GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE RIDGING WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. MOISTURE AND FOCUS DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS OVER THE N GULF. DML A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES RIDGING OVER THE GULF.
355 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015 HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY INVADING WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE PASSES THROUGH THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET REINFORCEMENT LATER THIS MORNING FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NM/AZ/SRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. LEE TROFFING SHOULD ALSO KEEP A RIBBON OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS WHERE WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015/ (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain across the Desert Southwest, while while an inverted trough/upper level low remains across much of Texas. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
438 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WENT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SE. FRONT WHICH DROPPED IN ON SUNDAY WILL START TO LEFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES. MID-LVL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER CENTRAL OR NRN WI. THE FORECAST FOR MON IS EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY TUE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT WNW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING.
324 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 AT 5H ONE RIDGE WAS OVER THE SWRN US WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE SERN US. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WAS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SINCE MODELS TEND TO GO TOO HIGH WITH AFTN DEWPOINTS DURING THESE LARGE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE.
435 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.
431 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015 RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING EVEN WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVERHEAD TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM / MET GUIDANCE WHICH DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SANDWICHED TODAY BETWEEN A STRONG HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AND DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NORTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN UNDER A VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE LOWERED READING A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE REPOSITIONING OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER HIGH FURTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TURN THE MEAN LAYER FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS BILL IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE LOW CENTER. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE IN PHASE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WITH ACTIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSING IN ON 100F DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
650 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN MICHIGAN IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO SE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ATTM AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE FATE OF OUR FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S BUT CERTAINLY COOLER (60S) NEAR THE LAKESHORES. THIS PLACES THE REGION IS A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD WHILE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 60 TO 80 KNOTS). HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80S SOUTH.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. 41 MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT ROUND OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING THICKNESSES THRU MIDWEEK. WHICH WAS ODDLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
223 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY THIS WEEK, HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA TODAY WITH LOWER POPS FARTHER E DUE TO LESS MOISTURE AND FARTHER FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 850MB AND 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGD TO BE WARMER ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER CAP. MX TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TAD WARMER AS WELL.
IT SHOULD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY. THINKING IS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE ALONG AN EAU CLAIRE TO SHEBOYGAN LINE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ORGANIZE INTO A DERECHO AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS AND COULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO IT/S SOUTH TO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
This will set the stage for what appears to be another very hot day as 850 thermal ridging overspreads the area. latest MOS numbers have come down a few degrees cooler than in previous runs. however if signals (thermal ridging/downslope winds) remain in place with 12z model runs.
430 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. NORTH OF THE HIGH. ALSO THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BEGINS TO SHIFT A LITTLE EAST OF THE AREA SHAVING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WENT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SE. FRONT WHICH DROPPED IN ON SUNDAY WILL START TO LEFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT VERY STRONG TONIGHT AND WE STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT MID LEVEL CAP. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT TRACKING BACK NORTH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A PROBLEM LATE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM GRAND ISLAND EASTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PUSHES BACK NORTH.
MASSIVE CAPE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE OVER FOUR CORNERS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES HOLD TONIGHT WITH HIGH TDS. THIS TRANSITION IS A RESPONSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE FOR A BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ATOP THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SANDHILLS WIND FIELD WILL VEER TO EASTERLY.
337 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. A second upper level trough is located off the Oregon coast, sending mid and high clouds across the southern half of the forecast area.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT IS LESS CLEAR CUT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH. REMNANTS OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
257 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
510 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
Weak ridging aloft will combine with a dry westerly flow to keep dry conditions in place for today and tonight.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
118 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri. With the upper low exiting the Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free. A large scale trough across the western U. will evolve into a quasi-closed off upper level low. This low may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.
334 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SENDING A DISTURBANCE AHEAD AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. EVEN WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD TODAY THUS TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.
A SHORT BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW. SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT.
AND PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO QUITE APPARENT.
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today. Behind it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the Intermountain West gets here. This trough develops into a cut off low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next couple of days. After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the rest of the week.