Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
405 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 An upper-level trough will dig into the ArkLaTex today, bringing southwest flow aloft and increasing cirrus over the CWA. Models suggest that this trough will pinch off into a closed low tomorrow and meander over the ArkLaTex. Meanwhile, at the surface, broad high pressure parked just off the East Coast will promote an easterly wind over the CWA through the period. Martin The synoptic pattern beginning late Friday night at the mid levels show the state wedged between an area of low pressure to the west and high pressure northeast/east with high pressure at the surface.
This AM, weakened surface ridging extends out from New England across the Far Western Atlantic southwest into the Carolinas, Alabama, and into East Texas. Some 4-7KFT clouds are currently noted on satellite attempting to propagate and develop westward around the ridge, but they are struggling to get into Alabama and will take a little while to get here.
313 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 Another warm, dry and breezy day as the ridge axis transitions across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Winds increase tomorrow across areas west of the Laramie Range as the prevailing winds turn southwest behind the ridge axis and a deep upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Satellite imagery depicting considerable cirrus over the forecast area associated with a mid/upper level trof advancing eastward across Texas. Surface observations showing temperatures running several degrees higher than at this time yesterday morning and are generally in the upper 40s over central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas, to the low to mid 50s further south. Surface analysis indicating high pressure extending through the mid-Atlantic seaboard, through the lower Mississippi valley and into east Texas.
Today and Tonight: Ridging will be in firm control today, resulting in substantial subsidence and a return to clear skies.
422 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 Another warm, dry and breezy day as the ridge axis transitions across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Winds increase tomorrow across areas west of the Laramie Range as the prevailing winds turn southwest behind the ridge axis and a deep upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Early this morning a weak cold front is actively moving through our CWA, with the associated mid level wave east of our CWA. CAA isn't particularly strong with this, but the air mass will start off a little cooler than previous days.
A mid level short wave trough will move across the area tomorrow with a mid level low pressure remaining stationary over eastern Texas through the remainder of the short term period. With some moisture in the lower levels as well as drier air aloft and dewpoint depressions less than 3 degrees, patchy fog will be possible late tomorrow night across the Brush Country and Coastal Plains, dissipating shortly after sunrise. High temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 80s across South Texas today and tomorrow with lows tonight expected to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
544 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough is moving southeast through Texas early this morning, with mid/upper level clouds out ahead of the trough axis over our southeastern counties. The upper trough will continue moving southeast today into eastern Texas before stalling tonight near the TX/LA border. Behind this trough, a weak cold front will move south into our area, stalling near a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
A strong cold front will bring strong winds Friday with areas of blowing dust.
despite upper level ridging building over the area from the west 850mb temperatures fall about 5F to 7F across the area. The surface pressure gradient starts to increase during the day as a strong upper low moves into northern California.
919 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
/issued 132 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020/ High pressure continues to ridge across the area from the NE and the pressure gradient remains fairly tight across the area due to being between the high to the NE and Eta over Central America.
/Issued 405 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020/ An upper-level trough will dig into the ArkLaTex today, bringing southwest flow aloft and increasing cirrus over the CWA. Models suggest that this trough will pinch off into a closed low tomorrow and meander over the ArkLaTex. Meanwhile, at the surface, broad high pressure parked just off the East Coast will promote an easterly wind over the CWA through the period. Martin The synoptic pattern beginning late Friday night at the mid levels show the state wedged between an area of low pressure to the west and high pressure northeast/east with high pressure at the surface.
A trough will be deepening today in the Gulf of Alaska. Friday is when we are expecting significant changes in the weather as the low moves through the area. Breezy conditions look likely at times late Thursday night and Friday in the valley while windy conditions over the ridgetops will develop as the low moves into the region. 2 to 5 inches of snow may be possible out of this system mostly over the higher elevations with lessor amounts down to around 4000 feet.
Current 500mb pattern shows nearly zonal flow along the International Border region with slight troughing over the Northern Plains. The strongest winds are not totally in synch with the lowest humidities, which should lessen fire weather concerns somewhat.
627 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
436 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 Current 500mb pattern shows nearly zonal flow along the International Border region with slight troughing over the Northern Plains. The strongest winds are not totally in synch with the lowest humidities, which should lessen fire weather concerns somewhat.
Meanwhile a cut-off trough over the Arklatex will remain in place. Upper level ridge over eastern Conus will continue to bring dry and mild conditions today through Friday. This along with a a ridge over the eastern states will bring a return flow to the area with increased low to middle level moisture.
Dry air will prohibit any precipitation with the crossing mid/upper-level trough today. Each day will feature mostly sunny skies with temps slightly warmer than the preceding day.
628 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough is moving southeast through Texas early this morning, with mid/upper level clouds out ahead of the trough axis over our southeastern counties. The upper trough will continue moving southeast today into eastern Texas before stalling tonight near the TX/LA border. Behind this trough, a weak cold front will move south into our area, stalling near a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
The flow will become more zonal with some weak ridging trying to build into the area toward the end of the week. Upper level ridging will continue building through the weekend as moisture begins returning to the region. High pressure ridging once again keeps us cool and dry today. Continuing the warming trend, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight will be warmer than what we have been seeing recently with lows in the lower 50s. An upper trough will quickly race eastward from the Ohio Valley on Friday to off the New England coast by Friday night,remaining well north of our area. Meanwhile, further south an upper low will cutoff over southeast Texas along the western Gulf Coast.
High pressure is well in place to our east and will really dictate our weather pattern now through the weekend. Predominantly southerly flow will streamline warmer temps and some moisture into Middle TN allowing temps to reach some unseasonably warm levels and dew points temps to return to the 50s by this weekend.
Highs should still reach the low to mid 80s as ridging aloft builds in behind the departing shrtwv trof. After a cooler night, southerly return flow will commence tomorrow and bring moisture back into the region. Highs will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow, albeit still above normal. Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trof will move onto the upper CA coast late Friday. This trof will migrate over the Intermountain West region this weekend.
The only "impact" weather wise will be slightly cooler temperatures which may run 2-3 degrees lower than yesterday and peak in the upper 60s. High pressure will begin to build back into the region from the northwest on Friday and subsequently, expect a return to a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures as winds veer back to the south.
THe cold front should stall this morning and lift back to the north with south-southwest flow returning supporting another mild day. Early this morning a weak cold front is actively moving through our CWA, with the associated mid level wave east of our CWA. CAA isn't particularly strong with this, but the air mass will start off a little cooler than previous days.
/issued 321 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020/ Positively tilted upper trough continues to move away across east Texas this morning leaving northerly mid-level flow in its wake. Over the next 24 hours, a rather sharp ridge (insofar as ridges go) will be oriented from MMCU to KCVS to KSLN as the mid level trough attempts to deepen across SE TX. It's not like there was a lot of cold air advection anticipated, but having a more westerly component doesn't yell cooler very effectively. High pressure settles into the region overnight bringing light and variable winds. Friday the CWA will be located between the departing upper level ridge and an upper level trough moving on shore across northern CA.
Upper level trough across Texas will continue to move southeast toward southeast Texas by this evening. Satellite imagery depicting considerable cirrus over the forecast area associated with a mid/upper level trof advancing eastward across Texas. Surface observations showing temperatures running several degrees higher than at this time yesterday morning and are generally in the upper 40s over central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas, to the low to mid 50s further south. Surface analysis indicating high pressure extending through the mid-Atlantic seaboard, through the lower Mississippi valley and into east Texas.
328 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Currently, an upper trough, stretching from Lake Michigan to northeast Texas, is moving eastward. Temperatures will likely climb a few degrees warmer than today. A deep trough with a closed low over the western US is forecast to deepen and move ashore into California during the period. A cut off upper low over the western Gulf will retrograde west and open up, while an upper level positive height anomaly will develop over the eastern US. In terms of temperatures, we've been running a little warmer than guidance over the last few days and the guidance also has been a bit too moist as well. Given the strength of the upper level ridge and expected south to southwest flow, we feel that going in 90-95th percentile of guidance is a decent bet.
1130 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough is moving southeast through Texas early this morning, with mid/upper level clouds out ahead of the trough axis over our southeastern counties. The upper trough will continue moving southeast today into eastern Texas before stalling tonight near the TX/LA border. Behind this trough, a weak cold front will move south into our area, stalling near a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
1130 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
953 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 Some cirrus continuing to move into the region, with winds picking up from the south across northwestern counties, where temps have risen into the lower 40s. THe cold front should stall this morning and lift back to the north with south-southwest flow returning supporting another mild day. Early this morning a weak cold front is actively moving through our CWA, with the associated mid level wave east of our CWA. CAA isn't particularly strong with this, but the air mass will start off a little cooler than previous days.
This afternoon: A positively tilted ridge will hold in place through today. Highs today are 15 to 20 degrees above normal although they probably wont quite be record breaking today as records today are in the lower 80s. Friday: The ridge will be will be directly overhead on Friday. Southerly wind will increase as a strong deepening trough slides onto the west coast today. Outside the Red Flag Warning, fire danger will remain in the high to very high category for much of the area. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s again, with northern parts of the area heating up to near 80.
1007 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 With increasing low level moisture and warmer temperatures, a few showers will be possible this afternoon mainly across the southeast Big Bend and along the coastal areas. In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the region today and a trough will deepen over the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Southeast with northeasterly low level flow over the region. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 60s.
A weak cold front that moved through early this morning shifted winds more north/northeast, but post-front winds will slowly shift back to east/southeast by late afternoon at most terminals. Highs should still reach the low to mid 80s as ridging aloft builds in behind the departing shrtwv trof. After a cooler night, southerly return flow will commence tomorrow and bring moisture back into the region. Highs will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow, albeit still above normal. Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trof will move onto the upper CA coast late Friday. This trof will migrate over the Intermountain West region this weekend.
Another warm, dry and breezy day as the ridge axis transitions across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Winds increase tomorrow across areas west of the Laramie Range as the prevailing winds turn southwest behind the ridge axis and a deep upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest.
343 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 A trough will move east across the area this evening.
Due to low level ridging persisting over the area, it has not recovered from the most recent intrusion of dry air behind the last cold front. There is a very weak mid/upper level trough just to our west and moving east. Surface ridging will persist through the short term period, with slow air mass modification only bringing a gradual increase in dew points. Aloft, the trough will progress east over us tonight and weaken, leaving an orphaned upper low along the northwest Gulf Coast, and eventual ridging developing over us on Friday night.
237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A weak cold front moved through the region earlier today but only resulted in a brief wind shift to the northeast.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 48 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 46 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 67 46 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 43 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Quiet conditions for tonight as winds start switching back to the south as a developing lee side trough will be in eastern Colorado. Friday a low pressure center near Denver will deepen and the trough in eastern Colorado will sharpen.
1215 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
This afternoon, an upper level wave was seen in WV imagery moving out of the plains while ridging was situated across the western Atlantic. The low lvl atmosphere remains dry as ridging was still located across the surface. This ridging will remain in place overnight tonight and on Friday keeping conditions dry. Aloft, the open wave will transition to a closed low across the southern plains. Above normal temperatures are expected with lows tonight in the low to upper 40's. The uncertainty lies with the strength of the ridge across the Atlantic and the interaction an approaching upper level trough and cold front, as well as the interaction of Tropical Storm Eta.
an upper level trough was moving through Texas and will continue to move down into our area on Friday and close off into an upper somewhat stationary low through the weekend.
GOES water vapor imagery shows our upcoming change on the horizon as a large trough digs into the western conus. Southerly winds steadily crank up tomorrow in response to lee side surface pressure falls on the high Plains. Highs are a little uncertain due to the low sun angle and increased impact from a potential scattering of low/high clouds.
244 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A fairly widespread coverage of dense cirrostratus clouds will persist across the TN Valley for the remainder of the afternoon, in southwest flow downstream from a 500-mb trough dropping into the Arklatex region. Thus, the high-level clouds may persist for much of the evening, before gradually becoming more scattered early Friday morning. The cutoff upper low discussed in the near term section is predicted to remain nearly stationary across southeastern TX during the day on Friday, inducing east-southeasterly flow aloft across the local area.
235 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 (Issued 235 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020) Tonight and Friday: Light winds and mostly clear skies will continue into Friday as our persistent ridge aloft continues to provide relative high pressure. Temps tonight will likely stay mild, as they have the past couple of nights, although a few degrees cooler, due to more subdued WAA over the region.
227 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Bermuda like high pressure ridge continues to dominate the short term forecast period. The ridge is centered just off the Mid- Atlantic coast which keep GA in moist easterly flow though the period.
High pressure will continue to dominate over South Central Texas through the short term period. Low temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than this morning.
134 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 Overall pattern begins to buckle during the next 24 hours as the Pacific trough begins to dive down the California Coast and ridging amplifies along the East Coast. Temperatures will stay near record highs for Friday in the 60s and lower 70s, with most of the higher elevations still reaching into the 50s during the afternoon. West of the Divide: The approaching upper low and associated trough continue to slow and models indicate the main impact will be across the west and north once it does arrive.
237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 An upper-level ridge, centered over the Four Corners region, continues to nudge its way over the forecast area. Dry-bulbs will rise into the lower 80s area-wide this afternoon, which is about 10-12 deg F above the climatological norms for this time of year. Winds will diminish quickly after dark as the boundary-layer decouples, and overnight lows will be about 5 deg F cooler than last night as radiative cooling effects are enhanced from the combination of a clear sky and light winds.
Cirrus will remain overhead today ahead of an upper trough, but as that trough begins to pass over the region tonight, it will push the clouds off to the east returning clear skies. Aloft, an upper level trough will move across the MS Valley today before closing off into an upper low over ArkLaTex by Friday morning. Clouds will advect eastward overnight as the upper trough axis passes to our east, resulting in a mostly clear Friday morning with lows in the low to mid 40s. Sfc and upper ridging will dominate into the weekend, with a breaking upper ridge over the top of low pressure meandering along the Gulf Coast Fri-Sat.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 72 52 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 70 48 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 46 70 48 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 70 44 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 0.
High clouds will continue to filter into western PA this evening and into the overnight hours as a weak upper-level trough advances east. Otherwise, benign weather will continue across the region with high pressure in control. Warm conditions will continue tomorrow and over the weekend under southwest flow and lingering high pressure.
So temperatures haven't quite reached yesterday's values, but tomorrow and through the weekend it will be considerably warmer as the sun breaks out and southerly flow continues to advect warm, moist air into Middle Tennessee.
Although not a classic warm frontal passage, a broad swath of scattered to numerous showers pushed through the island chain overnight as the air mass moistened. The low level inversion sampled by KKEY this morning should erode slowly over the next 24 hours, allowing moisture flux to deepen across the Keys.
257 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 Temperatures are a tad cooler today in the wake of a weak trough passing across the area, but still very mild for early-November standards. Expect lower in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
139 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. High pressure remains over the region with a deepening ridge overhead. Those clouds tonight should keep temps several degrees warmer than previous nights. With clouds gone early tomorrow and high pressure still in place, went a couple degrees warmer once again compared to guidance, similar to today.
Speaking of cloud cover, low clouds have persisted for much of the day across far southeast Oklahoma, leading to temperatures being several degrees cooler in that region in comparison to the rest of the forecast area.
Thus, the high temperature forecast targeting the u60s-l70s looks reasonable, with no major adjustments made to the grids at this time. High pressure will begin to build back into the region from the northwest on Friday and subsequently, expect a return to a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures as winds veer back to the south.
TFJ The warm weather continues today with an upper ridge over the region. Flow aloft turns to the SW on Friday as ridge moves to the east and an upper trough digs south along the Pacific Coast as it moves inland. A dry cold front drifts south tonight with somewhat cooler temperatures on Friday with dry weather.
Benign weather will continue across the region with high pressure in control.
306 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. High pressure remains over the region with a deepening ridge overhead. Those clouds tonight should keep temps several degrees warmer than previous nights. With clouds gone early tomorrow and high pressure still in place, went a couple degrees warmer once again compared to guidance, similar to today.