Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
5-1" over the northeast mountain zones, maybe up to 2 inches in the higher mountains but the threat of significant accumulations there is winding down.
WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN EASTERN COLORADO STILL IN THE LOW 30S. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS. ALSO MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES. MODELS NEAR TO OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. AGAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON ALL THIS AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PATCHING FREEZING FOG MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
524 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AND DECREASE LOWS TO THE LOWER EDGE OF THE 12 AND 18 UTC GUIDANCE SUITES GIVEN THE WARM BIAS IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE DEEP AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
936 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. THERE IS ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FOR A FEW REPORTS WEST OF OUR AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE AND GARRETT COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE W WEST OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH FOR THE WEEK AHEAD KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
Strong cold front still expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas by mid morning Sunday, sweeping south of the Red River by early Sunday evening.
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
/ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016/ FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED A PRONOUNCED SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SOUTHWEST OF A WOODWARD TO LAWTON TO ATOKA LINE AS OF 230 PM. THINK FREEZING FOG MAY BE A CONCERN. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF A ENID TO CHANDLER LINE WHERE THE AIR NEAR THE GROUND IS DRIEST. THIS FREEZING FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 3 MILES AND CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON ROADS. BRIDGES. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING COLDER AIR AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO TYS AND TRI TONIGHT.
SPREADING LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWS TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SANGRES. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH/MOSQUITO RANGES IN CENTRAL COLORADO. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OVERNIGHT. WITH SNOW FADING AWAY BY MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING LOWERING CEILINGS LATE AFTN/AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AS WELL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REBOUNDING VERY MUCH.
WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AND DECREASE LOWS TO THE LOWER EDGE OF THE 12 AND 18 UTC GUIDANCE SUITES GIVEN THE WARM BIAS IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE DEEP AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO CLEAR OUR SKIES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AND AT 00Z WAS AROUND 1000 MB. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SO CLOSE TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL INITIATE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LAND AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE WARM FRONT HAS PASSED THE AREA AND THE WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS ENDED. THE SMALL COLD POCKET WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWA. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE SUN THEN SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z MON WITH THE NEXT TROF SPREADING PRECIP BACK INTO THE NRN CWA DURING THE MORNING. P-TYPE COULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SNOW EVEN THO THE AIRMASS IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BUT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING AND THERE WONT BE A THICK ENOUGH WARM LAYER TO MELT THE PRECIP.
531 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY.
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE DISTANCE OF THIS LOW. IN ADDITION TO LACK OF SFC FEATURES WITH THIS LOW.
GOOD MID LEVEL QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ARE EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES AND WILL SEE SNOW RE-INTENSIFY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A DECENT PORTION OF THE SOUNDING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE STRONGER FORCING RESIDES AT THE HIGHER END OF THE ZONE. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE PROGS AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA/MSA THIS EVENING AS A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING VERY STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTH/EAST AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.
526 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 FIRST LEAD IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
658 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SLACKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE W. BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
BY LATE EVENING THE JET CORE HAS PASSES WITH THE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AND THE CROSS MOUNTAIN SHEAR INCREASES. COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE PLAINS BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE STRONG NW FLOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER ALL THE LOWER ELEVATION ZONES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS IT APPEARS THEY WILL GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP NICELY SO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE SURFACE WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WILL BE THINNER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER SO FOG SHOULD RETURN TO THE DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS VICINITIES AND ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SE UT. FLOW AGAIN GOES NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY.
A cold front will move into the region overnight bringing much colder air from the Northern Plains region. Highs will be relegated to much below freezing for the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon.
ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH FOR THE WEEK AHEAD KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
825 PM MST SAT JAN 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT OVERALL KEEP ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA.
SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OVER THE NE THIRD. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT SUN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER ALL THE LOWER ELEVATION ZONES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS IT APPEARS THEY WILL GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP NICELY SO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE SURFACE WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WILL BE THINNER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER SO FOG SHOULD RETURN TO THE DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS VICINITIES AND ALONG THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN SE UT. FLOW AGAIN GOES NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TACK OF THIS LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINA AND POSSIBLY OVER FAR EASTERN TN LATER TONIGHT. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN AND A SNOW ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 43 23 34 / 20 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 38 19 29 / 30 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 40 19 30 / 20 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 39 18 27 / 50 50 10 0 NC.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALREADY MOVING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
IT IS LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL THAT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH CAN NOT QUITE GET IN PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE.
525 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED SO FAR TODAY IN MUSIC CITY HAS BEEN 86 DEGS, WHICH HANDILY SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET BACK IN 2012. CLOSED UPPER LOW THEN SETS UP SHOP FOR A FEW DAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID STATE AND A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES--THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT AS MILD AS THE TEMPERATURES WE SAW TODAY.
A back door cold front will be approaching from Canada Wednesday night, bringing with it a northerly wind shift and an influx of colder air.
254 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER SUNSHINE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH THE HIGHEST OVERALL SPEEDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED AT KGUY AND KDHT. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE OK AND TX PNHDLS WITH THE HIGHEST OVERALL SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN ZONES AND LOWEST IN THE FAR SERN TX PNHDL.
101 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. A COLD FRONT IS NOW SURGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER.
144 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS DISPLAY FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT TRENDS AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A 90KT 300MB JET SEGMENT WAS ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER SEGMENT OF 120KTS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING BUT EXIT EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
If clouds do not develop as forecast, then lows could be much cooler with clear skies and light winds.
326 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TODAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING US ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW 40S OVER EASTERN VERMONT TO AROUND 50 OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. ON WEDNESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG 140W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST COVERAGES WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES).
AND THE INCOMING TROUGH EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
ON WEDNESDAY INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENS AFFECTING THE FAR NE FA PARTICULARLY FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS SOUTHWARD TO BJI. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS MAIN PCPN BAND EAST OF THE FA AT 12Z. AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD PCPN WILL INCREASE IN THIS AREA. RESPECTABLE F-GEN FORCING/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROUGH SO SNOW RATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME SURFACE TEMPERATURES/WET GROUND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. INVERTED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF -SN ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY.
A prefrontal trough ahead of the cold front was bisecting the forecast area. This along with the cold front will continue to march eastward this afternoon. Dewpoints and RH values do drop off behind the actual cold front and therefore a Red Flag Warning is in effect.
343 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Gusty northwest winds continue across west central TX this afternoon in the wake of this morning's Pacific cold front. Temperatures are in the mid 70s across the Big Country, but have warmed into the low/mid 80s across the Concho Valley and northwest Hill Country. Winds will become light from the north this evening, eventually becoming light and variable as the surface anticyclone moves across the southern Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures are anticipated once again, with afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
Light southwest winds early this morning will shift to the northwest and become gusty as a cold front quickly moves across the area.
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTTONIGHT TAKING ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANMOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING WEAKENING THE FORCING FOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. ANY FRONTAL AFFECTS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. BUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON THE COOLER SIDE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATER TODAY WHICH WILL SLOW ITS MOVEMENT AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR BEGINNING TODAY BUT MORE PRONOUNCED TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
At h5, trof axis was from the Dakotas into KS, with embedded waves of energy seen in wvapor moving across the Central Plains. Our wx grids will indicate a 10 percent chance along and east of I-55, with an isolated mention, 20s heading east into SW IN and the Pennyrile of west KY where a slightly better chance of convective development appears in the high resolution data.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A STOUT RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE COMING DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
GRADIENTS RAPIDLY START TURNING ONSHORE THU, MEANING AN EARLIER SPIKE IN HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
Cold front has fropa'd all terminals. Winds will become elevated and gusty out of the northwest to north later this morning as a cold front moves into the area.
/ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AS OF 20Z. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS CAN BE EXPECTED.
339 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUSION THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL H850 BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH MORE SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER MISSOURI. AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY. LOWS WILL FALL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH COOLER LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE MID 30S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN. HEAVIER RAIN IN THE STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION AREA NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE LOW LINING UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 2.
A cold front will continue to move across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. the cold front extended from the Texas Panhandle to Southwest Oklahoma. the cold front will continue to push eastward through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with the gusty northwesterly winds and drier air filtering in behind.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROUGH DIPPING TO THE SOUTH WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WEAKENS WHILE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS OVER WISCONSIN.
associated to the cold front. Further west of the low. The lowest relative humidity values and the greater fire dangers thus far have remained just in front of the front across Southeast Oklahoma. latest short term model guidance continues to indicate that the lower dewpoints should make it into Northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon.
THE COLD FRONT WORKED THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN AN UNSETTLED WEST FLOW.
A dry cold front is still expected to sweep across the area later this afternoon into this evening, which will usher in much drier airmass along with increasingly gusty west winds. Warm and increasingly windy conditions are in store today as a dry cold front pushes across the region later this afternoon. Cooler but seasonable temperatures will return Wednesday underneath a fast zonal mid and upper level flow.
DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN MN WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT BACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS RELAX TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THE MET SEEMS TOO LOW. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH AND WEST TEXAS FROM SHERMAN TO SAN ANGELO TO MIDLAND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN MOST OF OUR CWA.
359 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AS OF 20Z. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE COMBINATION OF AM SNOWFALL AND THICK CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AT ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX AND GRADIENTS ARE SUCH THAT IT SEEMS SAFE TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS THERE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER BASED ON THICKNESS TRENDS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE A DRY FORECAST WITH AMPLE SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE LOWER 80S! THE RECORD VALUE TO MEET OR BREAK IS 85 DEGREES AT HSV (2012) AND MSL AIRPORT (2012/1908). WILL TREND THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT TO BE AT MSL BY AROUND 07Z AND HSV BY AROUND 08Z.