Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler temperatures on the way this weekend with lows in the 50s Tonight/Friday. Tightening low pressure area centered northeast of the Bahamas will lift steadily northward tonight/Friday, with local winds backing to north and northwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Resultant continental trajectory of relatively drier air coupled with minimized low level convergence ahead of the cold front should negate any threat for precip. Cooler temps on tap overnight with lower to middle 60s inland and only upper 60s along the coast. High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will extend eastward across the southeast U. into the weekend behind the cold front.
With very light winds and clearing skies, have lowered temperatures towards the MET guidance, with subfreezing temperature possible. Temperatures however will warmer than today, with middle 60s expected in central SD, with the upper 50s further east towards Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa.
The strong northwesterly flow aloft will decrease over the CWA as an upper ridge axis moves into western Colorado by the end of Friday. A pretty weak pressure gradient is progged in the lower levels and the boundary layer winds should adhere to normal diurnal patterns. Upper level high pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring above normal temperatures and dry weather to north central and northeastern Colorado through the weekend.
Much Cooler Starting Tonight. Instability aloft may allow for some elevated showers as the upper trough axis swings through overnight.
327 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 High pressure will retreat offshore in advance of a cold front and upper level low pressure trough approaching from the west tonight, then cross the area Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. High pressure over the Carolinas will continue to weaken tonight as heights aloft begin to fall ahead of an upper trough amplifying over the Tenn Valley. Lows should be on the highest side of guidance, 60-63. Falling heights aloft with the deepening upper trough, up to 180m by Friday afternoon, and a cold front accompanied by rather strong FGEN will help to overcome the overall lack of deep moisture on Friday, will result in band of showers that will cross the area between 12Z and 21Z.
As a trough axis swings through, expecting these clouds to fill in to the south this evening per much of the short range guidance. Should see highs return to the lower 60s downwind of the Buffalo Ridge, but mixing will be tougher to the east and highs will be similar to today's in the lower 50s north of I-94 and east op I-35.
325 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 The much anticipated cold front has cleared all of North and Central Texas today ushering in much cooler air and gusty north winds. The last of the lower cloud cover is clearing the southeast counties at this hour and clear skies are expected this evening and tonight.
Based on recent hi-resolution model data have maintained slight chances of showers over the EVV Tri State and Pennyrile in association with the primary upper low center moving through the area 00Z-06Z.
As skies clear, temperatures will fall quickly into the low to mid 30s. Ridging will begin to build in on Friday bringing warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend.
129 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Rain will continue for much of the area through this evening as a low pressure system lingers overhead. Much cooler air will spread into the area tonight.
315 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 A strong cold front currently stretches from extreme southeast Texas through northwest Louisiana and up through western Tennessee. Isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm possible through this evening along and ahead of the boundary with the higher chances being farther north. Cooler and very dry conditions expected for Friday through the upcoming weekend as a longwave trough takes hold of the eastern third of the country.
Have trended the model blend temperatures for tonight a little cooler towards the MOS consensus anticipating calm winds and mostly clear skies. High temps for today are expected to be cooler than yesterday with cold air advection occurring throughout the day. Highs are generally expected to be in the lower 60s. By Friday morning, northeast Kansas will be in the middle of a mid- level trough over the eastern CONUS and a broad ridge building in centered over the southwest US. At the surface, high pressure will move east throughout the day, shifting surface winds from the south.
Clouds will gradually retreat north tonight as the warm front moves away. Trailing cold front extending out into the Pacific through 40/135 will weaken through Friday, but then redevelop and move ene Friday night as a short wave trough comes in from the Pacific.
318 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Rain will continue for much of the area through this evening as a low pressure system lingers overhead. Trough will continue to shift slowly east into the region and become negatively tilted over the next 24 hours, causing a slower eastward progression. Large band of rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley, has been slowly shifting east to areas along and east of I-69 with lighter rain/drizzle to the west.
343 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): The cold front continue to march through the Hill Country and approaching Deep South Texas. An inverted trough the coastal waters and extreme West Gulf of Mexico has been a focus for showers and thunderstorms today. Some compressional heating ahead of the front and limited shower activity have allowed a few locations to the reach the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. The cold front will finally pass through the region later this evening, with a final round of showers lingering near coast over coastal waters through Friday morning. This will keep the threat for showers continuing for the lower valley near the coast on Friday.
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain through Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. Showers and scattered thunderstorms should increase in coverage this evening as deepening low pressure advances along a surface boundary set up across the Upper Ohio Valley region. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
Meanwhile the chilly low level thermal trough is reinforced with the northerly low level windflow. Forecast Confidence medium After a frosty start for many the elongated ridge of high pressure will become centered across WI setting up a lighter wind regime across srn WI. Low level thermal trough remains in place with the 500 millibar trough shifting east of WI during the afternoon. Given the lingering mid level cyclonic flow in the morning and the low level thermal trough would expect cu with the MOS/LLVL RH progs suggesting this as well.
A cold front will move across the region late Friday into Friday night, helping to usher in cooler, less humid, and drier air providing a taste of the dry season to come.
As mid level troughing shifts east region comes under more zonal flow. Thermal ridge axis shifts over the fa during the day and low level westerly flow may combine with solar to allow temperatures to recover above average with cooler readings farther east.
High pressure will build over the region leading to dry conditions along with above normal temperatures into the weekend. Gusty north winds will persist in the lower Colorado River Valley, with gusts 25-35 kts at KEED/KIFP through mid day today. Gusty winds will decrease in the Lake Mead/Colorado River Valley area around midday, and humidities will hover in the upper teens overnight before falling back into the lower teens during the day.
Cold front moving in from the west and will allow for wind shift later in the period.
Persistent low clouds across central North Dakota are keeping temperatures a little cooler. Therefore lowered the high temperatures for today and delayed the departure of clouds across central North Dakota. Latest WV imagery shows an upper low near 150W 50N with a good fetch of moisture spreading across the northern Pacific into the northwest U. This wave will likely keep clouds across eastern portions of central ND into the afternoon, while skies clear west with upper ridging building into the area. Expect temperatures to range from the low to mid 40s over the Turtle Mountains, to the mid and upper 50s west and south central. Went a few degrees warmer than guidance over the western half of the CWA today, closer to the numerical guidance.
During the day Friday a cold front will swing through North Dakota.
A cold front is currently located across the mid-state and advancing toward the forecast area. This front is associated with a fairly deep longwave trough that will be swinging through tonight and tomorrow. The cold front moves through during the early morning hours and should be east of the area by around 12z Friday morning.
317 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016 (Today and Tonight) Much cooler across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures from the lower 70s across the I-20 corridor at Abilene and Sweetwater, to the upper 20s across the I-10 corridor at Junction. Will stick to the coolest of the guidance readings, showing overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. (Friday Night through Thursday) An upper level ridge will occupy the central CONUS by Friday night with the forecast area sitting under the closed upper high at the base of the ridge.
Dry weather with mild daytime highs will continue into Friday as strong high pressure and light winds persist over northern California. Temperatures will cool off closer to normal by this weekend as the high pressure ridge weakens. Comfortable temperatures across our entire CWA today as an offshore flow combined with a ridge of high pressure to bring widespread sunshine to the region. After a generally clear night tonight another mostly sunny day can be expected on Friday although temperatures will be a few degrees cooler as the ridge flattens out and the offshore flow comes to an end.
245 PM PDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warmer and drier conditions are expected Friday with high temperatures reaching 5 to 10 degrees above average.
322 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Mid level trough axis continues to translate eastward this afternoon while a drier airmass upstream filters southward into northeast Kansas. Some uncertainty on how well the low levels decouple overnight as light northerly winds veer towards the south by sunrise. Slightly better mixing with sunshine throughout the day should result in highs from the lower 60s east to upper 60s west.
A cold front will be pulled through the area this evening as the low continues to track off to the northeast tonight. High pressure will begin to nose its way into the region by late Friday, allowing a much cooler air mass to settle down over the region by late Friday night.
306 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016 At mid-afternoon, cold front was pushing into the northwestern portion of Alabama.
The cold front was just southeast of Austin and San Antonio then westward just north of Hondo and Uvalde at 17Z. The prefrontal trough axis has already moved offshore this morning with light northerly winds in place. Offshore winds will gradually increase behind the pre- frontal trough today in advance of the cold front.
Forecast - Winds will trend downwards and back more northerly as the ridge to our north weakens further and the low off the Bahamas continues to move northward.
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 The 19z surface analysis indicated that the cold front was moving east into west Tennessee and northwest Mississippi.
for about an hour but generally stayed in the high 30s and low 40s elsewhere early this morning. Our region is upstream of a digging upper level trough moving east across the Ozarks during the day on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 60s in the NW Panhandles to near 70 in the SE TX Panhandle.
On the weather maps, mid-level ridge over the southeast is breaking down as lowering heights aloft dig southeastward out of the southern plains. As the upper trof dives southeast, a strong cold front is beginning to surge southeast across the Mid-South. Cold front is progged to approach the northwest zones this evening. Cold front is forecast to be well east and south of the local area by daybreak Friday morning which brings drier and cooler conditions as you head out the door for work and school.
652 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken overnight then a cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
Potential for another night of near freezing conditions tonight. Few weather concerns over the next 36 hours as a shallow ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Clouds will be scarce in the dry airmass below the ridge which will help temperatures recover to within a few degrees of normal today with highs climbing above normal Friday afternoon. However, strong radiational cooling tonight will cause lows to dip close to freezing again in the lower valleys. High pressure will continue to amplify going into the weekend, so benign weather will persist.
Otherwise, expect dry and cooler conditions for the next 24 hours. As winds from the north bring cooler air into West Central Texas, highs today will be much cooler than previous days. Numbers mainly in the lower 70s look likely.
551 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain through Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
206 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the Central Plains with a ridge moving onto the West Coast. However winds will be close to 10 MPH and the air mass will be a few degrees warmer than last night, so think these two factors should mitigate the threat for a hard freeze. That being said low lying locations from the Highway 25 corridor west will likely have a hard freeze where cold pockets will develop. Highs will be fifteen degrees or so warmer than today as a result.
Further east, clouds will hold on long enough to keep lows in the lower 40s. High pressure will slide overhead on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and cool high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. High pressure ridge will sit right over the CWA Friday night, and with clear skies and light winds, frost will be a concern. Based on the forecasted ridge axis, believe the best area for frost will be in the eastern half of the CWA. High pressure will dominate the area with dry weather through most of the weekend.
A cooler post frontal air mass will keep temperatures near or slightly below normal for mid October. Comparing the last several runs of deterministic and ensemble mean guidance for the weekend shows little change of amplitude/position of mean ridging.
We will see the mid and high clouds in the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area moving east out of the area this morning as the short wave trough currently over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa move east toward the Great Lakes. The lowest clouds will likely remain north of Interstate 90 today. On Friday night, a warm front will move east through the area.
210 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken this afternoon. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
NE-SW oriented cold front is currently moving across the Shreveport area and will be sweeping across our forecast area this afternoon and early evening. although additional convection is expected to develop over the next few hours ahead of the advancing cold front. Temperatures were holding steady in the low to mid 70s. An upper level low across the central United States will continue to dig southeastward over the next 36 hours allowing a strong cold front. The cold front should reach interior southeast Texas this afternoon and swiftly move across the rest of Texas and Louisiana later this afternoon into the early evening. Rains will end a short time after frontal passage with high pressure building into the region tonight through the weekend.
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 A cold front currently stretches from Paris to Batesville. slowly deepening as the supporting upper trough in the Plains sharpens. mainly in the early to mid afternoon hours when temperatures approach 80F and speed shear increases ahead of the trough.
As drier air pushes south overnight coolest temperatures will be across the NW-N with the southeast half holding a few degrees either side of freezing. Friday looks dry and a bit cooler as high pressure noses into the fa.
Currently, the warm front has lifted north of the area and cloud cover has just about completely dissipated across the CWA within the warm sector. This has aided temperatures to quickly rocket into the low to mid 70s for most of the CWA. Water vapor imagery shows upper low has shifted into Utah. The low will track east across Kansas and OK during the day/evening with the best instability remaining further south.
A Pacific storm system will exit Utah overnight, followed by high pressure aloft for Friday.
703 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Warmer weather returns as southerly winds pump air from the Gulf of Mexico.
A moist southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough will move east into the forecast area after 12Z, bringing increasing mid and high level clouds mainly after 18Z. However, breezy and gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front after 15Z, which will shift more southwesterly behind the front after 00Z at KCTB and KHLN.
837 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will shift offshore tonight. A warm front will cross the region Friday.
The cold front with this system will move across the region Friday, exiting the area by mid afternoon.
The 5 pm regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the Southeast coast, and a weakening, quasi-stationary front near and along the GA-AL border.
Looking at the latest model guidance and surface observations, it appears precipitation generated by a lifting warm front will be minimal, at best, south of I-80. This is supported by the hi-res guidance and the latest nam/sref, and the fact that much of the shower activity that is out over Indiana now is diminishing as the warm front lifts northeastward. However, even with some wet- bulbing, the threat for freezing rain appears low, with warm air surging aloft.
Tomorrow, there again could be a sharp temperature gradient as the cold front impinges on the forecast area with cooler air in the northwest and temperatures up to the 70s possible in the southeast. Tonight: The high resolution guidance continues to indicate the development of thunderstorms this evening near 00z/7pm across portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Friday: As the upper low moves out over the Central Plains, the frontogenesis along the cold front will keep precipitation chances across north central to southwest Nebraska.
Upper ridge will still be over the area early on Friday, but effects from the strong upper closed low moving in from the Plains will be felt tomorrow.
In response to surface pressure and low level height falls centered in the Plains, the warm front currently stretching through central MO into southeast MO will gradually lift nortward and a stout 60+ kt south- southwesterly LLJ will develop. The southwest upper low/trof will move from the Rockies into the Plains on Friday, with a broad warm sector through the Mid MS Valley.
Dry weather is then expected through at least Friday evening as upper level ridging builds in. Highs tomorrow will top out in the lower 70s. A strong low pressure system approaching from the Plains will be the main weather maker for the weekend.
850 mb winds progged to slip into LLJ criteria as the night progresses across the area with the eastward advance of south plains cyclone. Skies cleared by the late morning hours as temperatures soared into the low to mid 80s. Look for the lowest temperatures this evening before the winds begin to pick up a bit dragging the higher dew points in the coastal waters on shore and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana overnight. The upper level system that we have been watching for the last few days will move out of the rockies as a cold front pushes into west Texas tonight.
1012 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 It has been an active evening on radar, with a 'backdoor front' impacting southern Florida and the island chain around the edge of strong ridging centered off the Carolina coastline. Convection fired off the southwest peninsula and entered the coastal waters of our CWA around 21/22z, producing thunderstorms with wind gusts of 30-50 mph, with Ramrod Key clocking the highest gust at 52 mph just after 7pm. Temperatures were in the upper 60s to low 70s, and dew points were in the low to mid 60s.
/Tonight through Friday/ Warm front currently over southern Nebraska stretches through far southwest Iowa and northern Missouri and will slowly move farther into Iowa late this afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will form as air ascends the warm front, primarily focused over northwest Iowa. By Friday morning, showers will be fairly widespread over northern Iowa as low pressure moves from far southeast Colorado to northwest Oklahoma. Ahead of the low, a stream of moisture from eastern Texas will move into south central Iowa.
Temps range from the low 60s north to low 70s south with a SE breeze around 10 mph.
18Z surface data has a warm front from eastern Nebraska into far western Kentucky. Dew points were in the teens and 20s across the Great Lakes with 30s from the northern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley.
Cooler locations across the interior may realize U50s. High pressure along the eastern seaboard and north FL will slowly drift into the western Atlc over the next 24hrs.
Dryline surge now underway across eastern CO as expected and developing warm front across southewest NE. Strong moisture advection ahead of the southward advancing cold front will allow for a heavy rain setup as well should storms form and remain near the large scale boundaries. The upper level low will track across Kansas on Friday. Did lower high temperatures a few degrees to the lower 40s within the area of deformation as hourly temperatures during the day actually dipping into the upper 30s. As the upper level low moves east Friday night, the deformation of rain will move east and end Friday evening.
A cold low pressure area will continue to move eastward out of Arizona tonight, with some patchy fog possible overnight.
830 PM MST Thu Mar 23 2017 A strong low pressure system will continue to move through the region today, exiting Arizona later tonight.
/Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/ Both fire weather and severe thunderstorm concerns will exist tomorrow in response to a strong upper level low pressure system and associated dryline that will move through the region tomorrow.
Skies cleared by the late morning hours as temperatures soared into the low to mid 80s. Look for the lowest temperatures this evening before the winds begin to pick up a bit dragging the higher dew points in the coastal waters on shore and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana overnight. The upper level system that we have been watching for the last few days will move out of the rockies as a cold front pushes into west Texas tonight.
A secondary severe hail threat will exist very late Friday afternoon and evening across mainly northeast Oklahoma as cold temperatures aloft spread into this area in association with the center of the upper low.
Under mostly clear skies, overnight low temperatures to fall into the lower 60s overnight. Slight risk of severe thunderstorms possible on Friday as an upper-trough swings east from the plains and an advancing dryline serves as a focus for convection. Ample low-level moisture with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, combined with steepening lapse rates as upper-trough overtakes front will enhance destabilization across the region.
Ended the thunderstorm threat as the low level lapse rates have significantly diminished and the instability greatly diminished as well.