Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Surfaced low pressure near Williston continues to lift slowly northeast. The low is forecast to lift north into southern Saskatchewan by later this evening. On the back side of the low, there could be additional chances for showers, with those mainly confined to parts of western North Dakota. The GFS is a bit of an outlier in this, but it is also slower in lifting the low north into southern Saskatchewan than the majority of model solutions. The influence of the low continues into Wednesday with the H5 low lagging a bit behind the surface feature.
HURRICANE MATTHEW POISED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND High pressure will build over the eastern United States through mid week. A high pressure wedge will hold firm across inland areas tonight. The northeast trajectories favor coastal Georgia for the higher rain chances, but really do not expect too much through the overnight period. Lows will range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower-mid 70s coast and beaches.
Dry weather is expected through the night with high pressure centered over the northeastern states.
255 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Strong low pressure system is now stacked across ern MT with the dry slot across much of the CWA. Surface temps have now risen into the upper 30s across the highest elevations of the BH. however a few wind protected spots may reach near freezing by early Wed morning. Low pressure system will slide NE into Canada Wednesday with dry air across the CWA. Mean upper trof will remain over the region through the end of the week. Forecast models then indicate a deep northern Pacific trough will shift east and support mean western CONUS ridging, shifting east by this weekend over the northern plains.
306 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for much of the week.
This will help overnight lows be several degrees warmer than normal in the lower 60s. The broad trough across the midwest will amplify as it swings east while high pressure lingers for a little bit longer across the region. The combination of the ridge and mostly clear skies will keep our temps, especially our daytime highs, above normal.
Cooler than normal temperatures through Wednesday will trend warmer to end the week. Temperatures are trending a little warmer today and will continue to rise for the remainder of the week. The trough of low pressure currently over central California is expected to move further inland while the offshore ridge of high pressure shifts closer to the West Coast during the next 24 hours.
Water vapor loop this morning shows main upper low moving northeast across Montana with trailing energy moving through the upper trough across southern Colorado and associated mid level jet. Dew point temps should increase into the lower 60s this afternoon. By Wednesday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be stretched across the western and central U. , with a surface cold front tracking eastward across the CWA. This cold front should lift northward as a warm front over the area again by Wednesday night, with some scattered thunderstorms possible overnight.
Tomorrow will begin to see the cooler temperatures as the current southerly flow will first turn easterly then northeasterly.
240 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 High pressure through much of the work week. Matthew from the south and an upper trough from the west will combine for modest rain chances this weekend. High pressure maintains control of our weather from its position over the northeast U. Temperatures between the lower MAV and higher MET for lows tonight as boundary layer flow will make for conditions a bit less than ideal for radiative cooling. Dry conditions expected across the area during the period with high pressure anchored over the Northeast. Still awaiting some consensus within the operational models in regards to the upper trough/Matthew interaction over the central Appalachians.
129 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 Aviation A large area of High Pressure over Quebec builds southeast today and Wednesday. Mid to upper level lift then spreads in during the day as a closed low settles in over North Dakota and becomes nearly stationary or drifts north in time.
Conditions quickly dry out behind the cold front and with the lower dewpoints could see lows falling into the 30s across our far western/northwestern zones by dawn Wednesday morning. Have kept patchy frost out of the forecast for now, but can not rule out a little patchy frost in low areas around Ord, Lexington, and Cambridge.
Above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies will continue for Wednesday as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern.
225 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure off the New England coast will keep an easterly flow of moist air over the region through at least mid week.
A cold front will then track east and south across all of the Panhandles by late today.
229 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 An upper level low, which has impacted our weather for several days, is finally exiting by sliding off the coast.
The combination of high pressure at the surface and being on the western flank of an H5 ridge should keep the region dry through tonight. In the wake of the short wave passage, from Wednesday night through the end of the period the H5 ridge shifts slightly westward back across our area.
Temperatures remain mild ahead of this front, from the lower 50s to lower 60s across much of western Nebraska. An upper trough axis will move across western Nebraska today. Ahead of this trough, another round of showers and thunderstorms will continue in eastern Nebraska. The upper trough and closed low will push eastward from the Dakotas into Minnesota. This will bring in cooler Pacific air to the region. Lows in the lower to mid 30s for the west and south, with near 40 across the northeast zones. Another upstream disturbance will dig into the Pacific Northwest overnight, reinforcing upper trough into much of the Great Basin.
Longer period swells from Matthew will arrive Wednesday and could result in some stronger wave run-up along with a moderate risk for rip currents but due to the low tide cycle on Wednesday.
For tonight, a short wave trough will lift northeast across eastern SD.
A broad upper trof with an embedded stacked low over eastern Montana and western North Dakota responsible for rain with shallow convection on a quick northward trajectory, while the whole warm conveyor makes a slow eastward progression.
Dry conditions will continue through the period as surface and upper level ridging remain dominant over the area.
and Wednesday High pressure will continue to drift to the east today while an upper low system works across the Northern Plains. High level clouds ahead of the cold front and upper low system were approaching from the west. Low level 35 knot jet slides over the area tonight with mu capes 200 to 300 J/KG and total totals approaching 50 ahead of the surface cold front on Wednesday. Surface dewpoints do not fall off much over Southeast and Eastern Wisconsin suggesting the cold front stalling over the area. Forecast temps overall to be in the upper 60s today, but locations which can see a temporary reduction in clouds today could shoot into the lower 70s.
Troughing will persist the next couple of days across the Rockies and Northern Plains. We will remain underneath relative ridging between this and Hurricane Matthew, assuring unseasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail. But as the mid-latitude trough to our northwest begins approaching our longitude, a cold front will begin surging into the Southern Plains.
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over New England with a mostly serly or srly low-level flow prevailing. Meanwhile a weak trof is noted just off our coastline. Water vapor imagery indicates troffing now in place over the wrn 2/3 of the CONUS with ridging holding firm from the ern Gulf up through the sern states and mid-Atlantic. Short- and medium-range guidance coming into agreement on the combo of the weak sfc trof and a slug of moisture moving out of the nwrn Gulf producing widely scattered showers/few storms tonight and on into morning over mainly the wrn portions of the forecast area.
The resulting ample sunshine will help hold highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows generally in the lower to mid 60s should getting closer to more normal lows in the 50s.
The shear axis sits within a broad trough across the SE states that should begin to break down later today into the overnight hours. high pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the period. The ridging across the CWFA will strengthen on Wednesday as Hurricane Matthew begins to move across the Florida Straits.
137 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure positioned northeast of the area will be the main influence on our local weather through much of the week. One dissipating cold front will near northwest Ohio Wednesday night.
Aloft, the mid-atmospheric trough axis has already shifted in to the Central Plains leaving weak cyclonic flow across the area. This will help areas that typically see good radiational cooling, mainly the northwestern South Plains and southwestern Texas Panhandle, drop into the low to mid 40s with low 60s across the Rolling Plains. Jordan The conundrum continues between the models on a palatable solution for our late week trough and ensuing cold front.
Cold front has cleared much of the DDC CWA early this afternoon, with gusty NW winds and cool/dry advection.
Cold front has cleared much of the DDC CWA early this afternoon, with gusty NW winds and cool/dry advection. What cool down that does occur behind the cold front on Tuesday will be off set by the warming that will occur due to the improving west to southwesterly flow across the Central Rockies mid week.
Upper level ridging will persist over the Mid South today providing dry and unseasonably hot weather.
Mid/upper level ridging will build over the eastern third of the nation through the first half of the period, then shift eastward by this weekend in response to the movement of a trough eastward along the Northern Tier and Hurricane Matthew's movement northward along the Atlantic coast. Progressive trough slides eastward late in the week, and eventually through the Great Lakes by this weekend. This will tighten up the pressure gradient force and help drive warmer air up through the area along with slightly higher dew points. However, the cold front will be faltering as it approaches, likely due to its interaction with the subsidence zone around Matthew.
Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected through tomorrow as the ridge remains over the area.
Strong upper low over eastern Montana will be lifting north today with flow over eastern Utah and western Colorado becoming more westerly with strong Pacific jet rolling into the region. The jet rips through the region tonight with another Pacific trough digging across the Great Basin. Few of the lower valleys getting close as well, but any freezing temps will be brief in those locations. Another closed low comes ashore over Washington State late Wednesday. This wave then becomes a more pronounced trough as it approaches our area and interacts with a trough from the North Dakota low.
Surface to 850 mb lapse rates of 7-8C/km are expected south of the low through the night in strong cold air advection to support the transport of momentum to the surface with 40-45kts at the top of the mixed layer. As the 850-700mb layer across the northwest cools to sub freezing between 06-09 UTC tonight on the backside of the low, wrap around light rain may mix or change over completely to snow.
Upper ridging beginning to take shape over the far eastern U. Meanwhile over the nations interior, broad shallow troughing is in place. Upper trough axis along the lee of the rockies will pivot northeastward today but stay well clear of our neck of the woods.
403 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure off the New England coast will keep an easterly flow of moist air over the region through at least mid week.
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The cold front will linger across Wisconsin on Wednesday night.
424 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 An upper level low, which has impacted our weather for several days, is finally exiting off the east coast.
Upper low continues to spin over the northern plains with a weak disturbance rotating around it approaching the central Rockies late in the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in northeast Colorado to the upper 70s in central Kansas.
High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to around 70 in far eastern Colorado to the low to mid 70s east of the Colorado Kansas border. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado and parts of the Republican river valley with mid 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Those living in or near the river valleys have the best chance for freezing/near freezing temperatures and threat for frost/freeze conditions. much of the day should see plentiful sunshine with afternoon temperatures in the low 70s in far eastern Colorado, mid to upper 70s east of state line. Stratus and possibly some fog moves in to parts of the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
Believe this will continue today although it will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 50's along and west of the I-25 corridor. and maybe in the low to mid 60's across western Nebraska. This upper level low will not move much today and should remain over eastern Montana until tonight. Kept the High Wind warning going for the wind prone locations. A widespread freeze is looking more unlikely across the high plains tonight due to cloud cover with lows hovering around 32 to 35 degrees.
an increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft with a flat ridge of high pressure shifting eastward. with the next trough embedded in a strong flow aloft over nwrn NV. Still some lingering snow showers in some of the high mountain locations so will keep isold snow shower coverage there through this evening. mostly clear skies overnight with light winds could produce sub freezing temperatures over areas of the cwa. increasing mid and upper level QG ascent over wrn CO by the aftn as the trough moves into wrn UT. Will reintroduce the chance of snow to the high country on Wednesday. An upper level trough over the Great Basin will produce a southwest flow aloft over Colorado Wednesday night.
Isolated convection will be confined mainly to the Interstate 30 corridor ahead of a cold front and areas south of Interstate 20 where sea-breeze convection may be possible.
303 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 The Midwest has been dominated by high pressure for the past few days with relatively warm temperatures and fair weather. The upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS is losing ground to the incoming storm and upper trof build and push through the region. Tonight the southeasterly winds will continue with increasing clouds as showers and the occasional rumble of thunder move into the mid Mississippi River Valley along and ahead of a warm frontal feature developing with the approaching storm system to the west. Warmer temperatures tomorrow into the upper 70s and lower 80s, but tempered by the showers and clouds with the warm front.
Much better scenario sfc and aloft indicated Wed late aftn and evening as prefrontal trough crosses the wrn lakes. Otherwise much warmer temps expected as vigorous swrly flow aides deep mixing for the date with many locations likely flirting with 80. Attention this period focused on approach of lagging srn Rockies disturbance timed with eastward cold frontal boundary passage. Primary dynamical influence expected Fri night as aforementioned upper trough and attendant cold front sweep through the great lakes. After that expansive ridge builds in through the mid MS/TN valleys underneath upper level troughing centered across Hudson Bay. High pressure and drying will continue to provide mainly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle.
656 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather until the approach of a cold front this weekend. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight. Low-level moisture in southeasterly flow could result in patchy stratus late tonight on the eastern side of the ridges toward central PA/MD, though most of the clouds should be east of the forecast area. High pressure over the Northeast CONUS should maintain dry weather through mid week with temperatures about 5 degrees above the averages. Thereafter, the upper-level ridge axis is projected to shift ewd on Thu/Fri, leaving the forecast area beneath weak swly upper flow. Modest sely return flow in the low levels will aid in a slow increase in moisture, with little forcing for ascent beyond upslope flow.
Large upper low continues to impact our forecast area this afternoon. Water Vapor imagery is showing this low currently just north of Miles City with a slow northeast movement. This low continues to wrap moisture around the backside across north central into south central Montana. Temperatures across the area struggled to make it into the lower 40s today. A colder pocket of air associated with the upper low was located across Custer County this afternoon as temperatures cooled into the middle 30s. We don't anticipate this snow to last more than a couple more hours or so as the upper low will be shifting northeast across northeast Montana.
Models show that we'll have a decrease in showers over the Rogue Valley this morning and afternoon, then showers fill in again tonight and Wednesday as an upper trough moves through. High pressure will build in late in the week and remain into the weekend. Upper troughing with a few fast-moving impulses will maintain clouds and the chance for rain across much of the forecast area through midweek.
An upper low over Vancouver Island will cause clouds and showers to increase over south-central Washington this afternoon. Cigs will lower in vicinity of the showers starting around daybreak tomorrow with possible brief MVFR over the higher terrain.
GFS and NAM are in good agreement that a deep trough currently over High Plains will move northeast to near the Mississippi River by 12Z tomorrow morning. This will be under mid-level ascent from the trough.
Models continue to show an upper trough will dig into the Four Corners region Wednesday.
With the dry air in place, we will see pockets of freezing temperatures, especially across northern EL Paso county. Some other areas of freezing temps may occur elsewhere, including the Spanish Peaks region, and the greater Lamar area. Isolated areas of freezing temps may occur elsewhere in normally colder areas. The best chance for some gusty winds over the lower elevations will be over the greater Raton Mesa region and northern El Paso county. Max temps will be 1-3F warmer tomorrow than today.
344 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 18Z surface data has low pressures over northeast Montana and central Kansas. Connecting the two low centers was a cold front. Dew points were in the 50s across the upper Midwest and Great lakes with 60s in the lower Mississippi Valley. Seasonably mild and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this afternoon and evening as the cold front in the Plains moves east. The western half of the area will have the better chances of seeing rain and thus the higher pops are placed there. This weekend is on track to be quiet, and cooler across the area.
A gradual warming trend is then expected through late week and into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Main story will be the warmer weather toward the end of the week as a ridge builds toward our region and offshore flow keeps the cooler ocean air and clouds to the west.
The surface cold front starting to make more of a push east, winds across western portions of the CWA becoming more light/variable. Looking at the big picture starting Wed around sunrise, most of the CONUS should be under the influence of a broad upper level trough with the exception being the east coast which will be under ridging. A closed low should be just north of the U. At the surface, the cold front that will pass through the region today should be a little ways to our southeast.
/DL/ Today through Wednesday night, A weak ridge of high pressure associated with a dry, hot airmass will continue to be the biggest influences on the ArkLaMiss weather for the next couple of days.
318 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 An upper level low, which has impacted our weather for several days, is finally exiting by sliding off the coast.
256 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. Fair weather continues this afternoon with surface ridging east of the mountains emanating from high pressure over New England. An inverted trough along the coast is resulting in showers offshore. Model guidance and forecast soundings indicate increasing moisture in the lower levels and stratus clouds expected to move into the region from the northeast during the predawn hours. This along with some light wind in the boundary layer may impact overnight lows but still expect lows in the lower 60s with some cool advection from northeasterly flow.
322 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 High pressure through much of the work week. Matthew from the south and an upper trough from the west will combine for modest rain chances this weekend. High pressure maintains control of our weather from its position over the northeast U. Temperatures between the lower MAV and higher MET for lows tonight as boundary layer flow will make for conditions a bit less than ideal for radiative cooling. Dry conditions with high pressure overhead.
/ Issued 403 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection with the upper system and cold front, while temperatures will start above normal values, then cool behind the front over the weekend. The surface and upper high pressure ridge have moved east of the region, and a south surface wind flow has returned to AR. The upper low pressure system was over the northern Rocky Mts with the trough south to the rest of the Rockies. The upper high pressure ridge over the east is holding it back.
This trough will graze northwest portions of the Mid South and result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday. dry conditions should continue as the upper level ridging persists. The upper ridge strengthens across the entire Mid South for the end of the week with even hotter temperatures anticipated as a combination of rising heights.
Dewpoints progged to climb back into the upper 60s north and the lower 70s south for the next few days.
A highly amplified upper level trough extending from the mid Atlantic states to southern Mexico will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours, while a large upper trough continues to settle over the western conus.
308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 255 PM CDT Slow and perhaps just partial clearing of the overcast ceilings will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s but persistent southeasterly flow will keep lows considerably warmer than average for early October. Precip chances increase from west to east toward daybreak as an upper trough swings toward the area ahead of the large low pressure system positioned across the Northern Plains.
342 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure will anchored across the region through the end of the week. Moisture trapped beneath the inversion will allow for fog development in the low lying areas and river valleys.
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Vigorous upper trough ejecting into the Plains this morning is already forcing an extensive line of showers and thunderstorms from Texas into the Dakotas. Much of this activity will likely weaken later in the day as the low-level jet that is currently feeding it weakens. Convection will then likely regenerate along an advancing cold front across central and eastern KS later this afternoon as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Cold front will lose much of its punch overnight as the main upper- level energy bypasses the region to the north. However, by late afternoon a warm frontal boundary will begin to organize and lift north toward into eastern KS and western/central MO.