Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A high pressure ridge will transition through the region today, providing SE Oregon and SW Idaho with clear skies. The ridge will shift east tonight and replaced by southwest flow aloft on Wednesday as the next trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Clouds will increase with the approaching trough, along with a slight chance of afternoon rain and snow in Harney County. Highs on Wednesday will be several degrees warmer - close to normal.
A broad trough deepening across the northeast states should help push the front southward into GA today and tonight. The air mass will be stable and cooler by that time with positive LI values and little if any CAPE. a strong mid level jet will help dig a large trough from Canada into the northern Great Lakes.
304 AM MST Tue Nov 7 2017 Current satellite imagery and upper air analysis show zonal flow over the Plains ahead of a trough over the Northern Plains. As the morning progresses expect the light freezing drizzle to change to snow from north to south as the saturated environment cools to -10C, but the precipitation may end before that occurs. However, with the high potential for freezing drizzle, if any precipitation is going to occur, will keep the advisory going. Tonight another round of precipitation will move over the southwest part of the forecast area ahead of the southward moving upper level trough. Lift from the trough will be best over Cheyenne County Colorado. Am not expecting any freezing drizzle due to the saturated layer being deep enough to form snow.
Starting Wednesday, the region will remain situated between strong high pressure centered over Mexico and a series of progressive low pressure systems well to the north. This will keep temperatures from dipping much through sunrise as lows should mainly only reach into the lower to middle 60s across the deserts.
921 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Most of the low clouds and fog has burned off so have allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at 9 AM. As for the remainder of the today expect another warm and dry day with ample sunshine as high pressure surface and aloft over the Gulf and Florida remains in control with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 80s during the afternoon. The low clouds and fog have burned off with VFR now being observed at all terminals at mid morning. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots with slight seas and an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
High pressure in place across the area will allow for a NE flow around 10 knots.
The northern portion of this trough is progged to shear out eastward into the Canadian Maritimes while the southern portion drops southeast through the central Rockies and out over the central High Plains this afternoon and tonight. The models have been consistent with this wave opening up and weakening as it drops southeast which makes sense given the strongest upper jet features are on the east side of the trough. Think that chances for any precipitation across west central and southwest Kansas today are going to be slight at best with some patchy drizzle or possibly some freezing drizzle over the far southwest Kansas counties.
Cool and breezy conditions will persist today as Pacific moisture and a cold front move toward the area. A plume of Pacific moisture is streaming across northern Arizona this morning, ahead of a weak cold front that will move southward into the state later today and tonight.
251 AM PST Tue Nov 7 2017 Weak high pressure aloft will bring warming for Wednesday with near to slightly above average high temperatures.
/issued 439 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Another unseasonable warm day is expected across the Ranchlands and Valley as strong subtropical ridging continues over the region. The positively tilted wave will help drive a cold front south through Texas and into the region through the day Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with the increased cloud cover and precip, and have trended temps down slightly.
931 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Wave of low pressure moves along the front just south of the area today and again Wednesday. Cooler air moves in for the end of the work week. Highs today were nudged toward the cooler side of the guidance envelope with most staying the in the mid to upper 40s during the day. Areas that clear will drop into the 30s while folks that stay in the stratus will see temps bottoming out in the lower 40s.
A cold front will be moving southward across the state this evening and tonight and approach the area by the end of the forecast. Main issue in the short term part of the forecast is Wednesday's cold front. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s over the western half of the area with middle to upper 80s over the Victoria Crossroads. Cold front will be progressing southward across the state this evening and tonight. Highs on Wednesday may only reach the lower to middle 60s across the northern zones to lower to middle 70s across the extreme southern sections of the area. Rain chances continue behind the cold front. 6" with the highest amounts over the Victoria Crossroads, the Coastal Bend and over the Coastal Waters.
Today Through Wednesday Night The cold front that moved through the CWA on Mon is now just to the SE of the CWA.
Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, but with breezy southwest winds up to 20 mph it won't feel warmer.
1020 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 A cold front near the north part of the forecast area today will sink southward and through the area tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX 953 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017 Latest obs indicate cold front sinking toward northern portions of the forecast area late this morning. Would expect the progression of the front to slow a bit, but still should reach around College Station to Trinity by mid afternoon, keeping temperatures there and north a bit cooler than recent days. A cold front will edge into our area from the north this afternoon and work its way toward the coast and into the Gulf waters tonight through tomorrow morning. Cooler temperatures behind the front are expected to keep CLL from reaching records highs this afternoon.
and then temperatures and wind/flurries with the next cold front Wednesday night. The strong zonal flow continues over the area as the longwave trough continues to push through the central U. Warmer temperatures return for Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. The warming is short-lived with the cold front already to the South Dakota by 00Z Wednesday evening.
With increased mixing, expect a lull in precip/DZ this afternoon before the upper trof arrives which will help support increased precip chances again this evening and into the overnight hours. With the ample cloud cover, have trended just below the warmer guidance. Have kept low PoPs tonight, mainly during the evening, as the upper trof moves thru the area supporting light rain and/or drizzle. A southern stream upper level trough will pass south of the region Wednesday night with all the models keeping the precipitation south of the forecast area.
422 AM MST Tue Nov 7 2017 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Models in decent agreement with next cold front moving south across the area on Wednesday.
Current satellite imagery and upper air analysis show zonal flow over the Plains ahead of a trough over the Northern Plains. As the morning progresses expect the light freezing drizzle to change to snow from north to south as the saturated environment cools to -10C, but the precipitation may end before that occurs. However, with the high potential for freezing drizzle, if any precipitation is going to occur, will keep the advisory going. Tonight another round of precipitation will move over the southwest part of the forecast area ahead of the southward moving upper level trough. Lift from the trough will be best over Cheyenne County Colorado. Am not expecting any freezing drizzle due to the saturated layer being deep enough to form snow.
temperatures won't warm much today and have stuck fairly close to the cooler NAM guidance for afternoon highs. with precipitation tapering off Wednesday evening as the trof axis shifts east.
613 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Issued 1225 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes for most of this week but temperatures will be cool with highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
626 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 A cold front near the north part of the forecast area today will sink southward and through the area tonight.
Main issue in the short term part of the forecast is Wednesday's cold front. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s over the western half of the area with middle to upper 80s over the Victoria Crossroads. Cold front will be progressing southward across the state this evening and tonight. Highs on Wednesday may only reach the lower to middle 60s across the northern zones to lower to middle 70s across the extreme southern sections of the area. Rain chances continue behind the cold front. 6" with the highest amounts over the Victoria Crossroads, the Coastal Bend and over the Coastal Waters.
Another quiet and sunny day on tap under high pressure.
However, the cold front is still draped across the mid-state. That means the clouds will continue and for those north of the cold front, cooler temperatures. With the cold front still not expected to move completely south of us until this evening, a few additional showers are possible this evening.
An upper low off the California coast will move across southern Arizona tonight into early Wednesday.
927 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 High pressure will build in across northern Maine today, while weak low pressure will track to the east south of New England.
A cold upper trough will cross northern Utah today. High pressure will return to the area on Wednesday.
Skies will range from mostly to partly sunny with highs reaching the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s over the interior. Light winds generally 10kt or less as high pressure builds in proximity to the area.
Scattered fair weather cumulus and scattered upper level cirrus will be the only obstructions this afternoon as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico settles in. A ridge of high pressure will extend across area waters today into tonight.
The high-res guidance indicates that the snow could linger into the morning hours across central Nebraska and western portions of the area and that is reflected in the forecast. With light winds and mostly clear skies, lows will drop into the low 20s across the area.
238 AM PST Tue Nov 7 2017 Widespread freezing temperatures are occurring this morning with hard freezes area-wide.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Another unseasonable warm day is expected across the Ranchlands and Valley as strong subtropical ridging continues over the region. The positively tilted wave will help drive a cold front south through Texas and into the region through the day Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with the increased cloud cover and precip, and have trended temps down slightly.
Overall, the highest amounts of rainfall between a quarter and a half an inch have fallen over far southern KY, and our southern IN counties. Will toss around the idea of mentioning drizzle along with the low chances for measurable pops as we move into the afternoon. Still, an improvement to the low and mid 50s, but a bit below normal for this time of year.
The lower troposphere was seasonably moist, with a prevailing northeast flow averaging about 11 knots. Current sea surface temperatures are in the 78-81F range, with the warmer readings near the Gulf Stream.
850mb and 925mb wind fields show a 70 kt jet pinching against the coast as the cold front makes impact tomorrow. Some lighter, warm frontal precipitation will be possible Wednesday morning with the main band of rain arriving to the coast around noon.
For tonight, slightly cooler conditions are expected with lows in the 30s.
A cold front is expected to approach the region from the NW late tonight. For the remainder of today, fog expected to lift right after sunrise as the winds mix the boundary layer, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies with afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s. Chances will continue to increase ahead and along an advancing cold front.
656 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair and cold weather this week, but there will be a couple chances for some snow showers.
939 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Low pressure over Tennessee will move eastward along a stationary front draped across the Carolinas during the next 24 hours and out to sea Wednesday.
604 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017 /12Z TAFS/ MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the I-35 terminals for much of the period with several hours of VFR conditions behind the cold front. Expect the cold front wind shift to occur at KAUS around 21Z and for the San Antonio airports around 22z and 23z. Except, a cold front currently along a Waco to San Angelo line will bring falling temperatures across our Central Texas counties mid to late afternoon, which is a little ahead of previous forecast timing.
Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure extending west from MN/WI back through the northern Rockies, separating an area of low pressure near the Four Corners region and a weak cold front shifting east over Ontario province. In addition, the trough axis well upstream will remain to the northwest of the WFO MPX coverage area today. The longer term concerns remain timing of cold front Wednesday night and extent of and snowshowers/flurries. Weather associated with the early weekend trough could be problematic as well. The initial cold front in progged to drop across the area Wednesday night.
635 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 Wave of low pressure moves along the front just south of the area today and again Wednesday. Cooler air moves in for the end of the work week. Highs today were nudged toward the cooler side of the guidance envelope with most staying the in the mid to upper 40s during the day. Areas that clear will drop into the 30s while folks that stay in the stratus will see temps bottoming out in the lower 40s.
High temperatures will reach the lower-mid 80s again across inland areas, with upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide today and tonight despite the passage of a strong cold front this afternoon and tonight. However, it does look like the front will push to the Pecos River by peak heating, thus warmer temperatures in the middle 80s are expected to the south, with another day of 90s through the Rio Grande Valley. Highs in the 50s and 60s will be confined mainly to the higher terrain and the Rio Grande Valley. Tonight through Wednesday, isentropic lift as well as the favorable location of the right entrance region of an upper jet associated with a fast- moving positively tilted upper trough will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area.
626 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017 High pressure will build in across northern Maine today, while weak low pressure will track to the east south of New England.
Can't rule out a little stratocu flaring up as well beneath cooler air aloft, but overall dryness of the boundary layer should keep things in check. More westerly wind component and 925mb temps roughly 1C warmer than yesterday coupled with sunshine should force highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight have potential to dip well into the lower teens for the usual suspect sites of central WI with a weak gradient in place, but should hang in the 20s elsewhere with a better gradient developing after 06Z. However, the slight moderation in temps will be very short-lived as an upper trough amplifying into the Upper Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front through on Wednesday night.
Northerly winds will also continue to advect cooler air southward. Most soundings indicate a ~0C (nearly) isothermal layer from 800-700 mb, a saturated dendritic snow growth zone, and the entire column below freezing.
Florida resides on the eastern periphery of a strong ridge aloft centered over Mexico early this morning, with high pressure also over the region at the surface. As far as the rest of the forecast, there really is not much change between today and tomorrow with high pressure over the region.
Latest numerical guidance was also a bit warmer than previous forecast so adjusted upwards to those numbers a bit more.
533 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017 Ridge stretching back from the Plains over the Great Lakes this morning resulting in northeasterly winds over Central IL as the precip in the southeast slowly dwindles on radar. Cooler through the end of the week.
443 AM MST Tue Nov 7 2017 Current satellite imagery and upper air analysis show zonal flow over the Plains ahead of a trough over the Northern Plains. As the morning progresses expect the light freezing drizzle to change to snow from north to south as the saturated environment cools to -10C, but the precipitation may end before that occurs. However, with the high potential for freezing drizzle, if any precipitation is going to occur, will keep the advisory going. Tonight another round of precipitation will move over the southwest part of the forecast area ahead of the southward moving upper level trough. Lift from the trough will be best over Cheyenne County Colorado. Am not expecting any freezing drizzle due to the saturated layer being deep enough to form snow.
841 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The high moisture could also help support localized flooding if training happens to develop. A broad upper trough will continue over the eastern CONUS with an upper ridge over the western states.
Model consensus is showing good agreement on this solution, so put in likely mention of showers and storms during this timeframe as the upper low moves through the mid state.
Atlantic high pressure reaches west to the Gulf of Mexico with an axis bisecting central Fl. Atlantic high pressure ridging across Fl and out over the Gulf will continue with a relaxed gradient.
727 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather through the Fourth of July.
More organized convection will be possible mid to late week as more substantial upper level support arrives with an upper trough moving into the region. High pressure late in the period will bring a return to dry weather for the coming weekend. A weak cold front is positioned along the northern borders of Indiana and Illinois this morning.
Latest model trends continue to key on sct convection developing this afternoon along the coast mainly due to the trof location along with local seabreezes. Upper trough to the west will nudge weak front down toward the area in back-door fashion late tonight, with the front stalling just north of the area. A few showers possible overnight across the southern half of the area tonight as a theta-e ridge lifts north across the area.
SFO Bridge Approach. Northerly winds will continue as high pressure remains off the West Coast. Winds will increase later this week as high pressure builds.
Temperatures in the lower valleys of southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon will be in the mid to upper 90s today and then a few degrees warmer tomorrow. The atmosphere remains dry, but will be unstable over the higher terrain in the afternoon causing buildups of cumulus clouds in the mountains. The very warm upper- level high pressure ridge continues to intensify over the western U. Models continue to show sufficient instability and mid-level moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain each day.
The high will work southeastward today so at the surface we'll see southeasterly winds become predominant.
1220 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A weak cold front will sag southward across the region today.
This activity is forecast to spread east over the forecast area through Tuesday as the upper trough slowly drifts east.
Left over convection from last evenings showers and isolated storms was in the form of sprinkles in the Bismarck-Mandan area, and showers from Wells County into Foster County and pushing east, away from the forecast area, with the mid level short wave trough. Very warm today with sunshine, after the early morning clouds, and southeast winds 10-20 mph maintaining low level moisture in the lower 50s for dew point temperatures. CAPE and instability are sufficient, along with the low level moisture, but lacking is any lifting mechanism surface to mid levels, at least until this evening. This as lower theta layers (H925-H850) with thermal ridge were a bit cooler.
The low level ridge axis remains across central FL. This may delay the sea breeze a tad there and have bumped up the forecast highs into the lower 90s. Ridge axis remains across central FL and the adjacent Atlc keeping a light southwest flow across the northern waters and S/SE flow across the south.
WV imagery shows yesterday's west coast trough has moved east to CO, already shifting the focus of the upper-lvl ridge to the sw CONUS/nw Mexico. As this feature continues shifting west, thicknesses should peak over West Texas/SE NM Tuesday, yielding triple-digit temps over much of the area, before dropping off to near-normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend as the ridge sets up over the Four Corners.
422 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Strengthening high pressure over the central and southern Rockies will bring a warming trend and a shallower marine layer this week.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Early this morning, upper troughing has finally started to shift east, while mid level ridging was trying to work into the central conus. Highs today in the low to mid 70s with lows tonight likely with a 30 degree diurnal swing, in the low to mid 40s most areas. High pressure remains in control through at least Tuesday night.
1107 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. The high moisture could also help support localized flooding if training happens to develop. A broad upper trough will continue over the eastern CONUS with an upper ridge over the western states.
955 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A weak cold front will sag southward across the region today.
Otherwise, dry and less humid conditions are expected as weak high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Medium Mid level ridging combined with a lower level anticyclone will likely keep things dry. Bufkit soundings from both the NAM and GFS show a decent amount of drier air in the lower levels with little in the way of MUCAPE.
706 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will cross the region today.
Dry westerly flow will prevail today/tonight as upper level ridging remains entrenched across the Desert Southwest, with mainly clear skies expected area wide. Highs today will range from the lower 90s across the lowest elevations to the mid 70s to lower 80s mountains.
Otherwise quiet conditions are expected across the western Great Lakes through the 4th of July as high pressure resides across the region. An increase in mid and high clouds are expected during the 4th of July as a low pressure system approaches the region from the west with ongoing showers and thunderstorms.
Upper ridging suppressing deep convection across the area with the possibility of just a few streamer showers over the Gulf waters and extending into the coastal counties.