Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A seasonally strong high pressure ridge will build across the Intermountain West with a robust pressure gradient across the area. Otherwise some high-level clouds may spill across the area as we remain along the northern periphery of the moisture envelope associated with the upper low. Highs today should generally be in the 60s, with a few of the warmer valleys likely nearing or eclipsing the 70 degree mark. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s, with a few of the cooler inland valleys reaching the upper 30s. This Weekend: The pressure gradient will relax as high pressure to our north weakens. Meanwhile the upper low offshore should gradually drift a bit closer to our area. Otherwise broad ridging should encompass much of the western CONUS with seasonally mild temperatures continuing.
Until then, a high pressure ridge axis centered over the region will keep the weather dry and quiet in the short term.
There will be bouts of cloudiness and perhaps a sprinkle or two across the higher terrain, but that looks it. A few light sprinkles will be possible across SEAZ with a shower at the higher elevations possible.
Temperatures today will stay fairly steady, int the single digits along and north of the Highway 2 corridor and in the teens south, with low level cold air advection and partially clearing skies later this afternoon and into the evening leading to a more rapid cooling.
With that said, portions of the Upper Keys is falling into the lower 60s, getting an assist from radiational cooling over the peninsula. This turn is in advance of the next cold front that will already be racing through the central Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday. Winds will freshen out of the south on Saturday night as a fairly sharp prefrontal trough approaches Keys waters.
This highest snowfall totals would be in the southwestern portions of the forecast area. After this system passes, an upper-level trough follows behind it passing through the region into Saturday morning.
713 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 NE wind and falling temperatures follow an arctic cold front today. Deep upper level low/trough slowly tracking through Eastern Canada today, with strong high pressure (1045 MB) building over Ontario.
Widespread measurable snowfall will occur late this afternoon through Saturday afternoon, with the highest snowfall totals favoring west central Illinois. Roads will become slick starting in the north and then progressing to the south as temperatures drop below freezing during the evening hours.
An upper trough will depart the region tonight as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
920 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Weak high pressure will move east across the region today as a cooler airmass settles into the area.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, whereas overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s due to some radiational cooling and a strong cold front tracking into the area early this evening. The cold front will enter the Big Country early this evening, and will track southward through the I-20 corridor overnight tonight, bringing colder temperatures and strong winds in its wake.
318 AM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 Main concerns through tonight will be the high wind potential on the plains and snow chances for the mountains and adjacent plains. Currently, water vapor imagery showing upper low dropping south and southeast through Idaho and far Western Wyoming. There is an initial cold front over now moving into northeast Colorado while a secondary surge is just moving into Northern Wyoming and this will drop into the plains by later this morning with increasing winds and a chance of snow. This is all occurring as the upper trof intensifies over Kansas tonight. Models indicate moderately strong northerly flow aloft for the CWA Saturday into Saturday night with upper ridging to our west over the Great Basin.
Cooler temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s today are expected in the wake of a departing upper-level short wave and attendant cold front. Quiet conditions will continue through Saturday as high pressure settles in over the region.
345 AM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 An Alberta Clipper system moving through eastern Montana and the Dakotas this morning has pushed a cold front across our forecast area. Brisk north/northwest winds have spread across our eastern zones along with a somewhat cooler air mass. This also includes the higher hills across our southeast zones. Based on soundings, we have added a slight chance of freezing drizzle in our east for this morning, but it should be patchy so any impacts from it minor at best. Look for the highest afternoon readings to range from near 40 west, to the middle 20s east.
Friday's strong northerly winds will calm down for most of the area on Saturday as this ridging sets up, but are expected to linger down the Colorado River Valley through Saturday evening.
Northwest winds increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon in response to the strengthening low pressure located over the far western Atlantic. Temps quickly drop after sunset, as overnight lows settle in the low to mid 40s, except around 50 degrees for the barrier islands from the Cape southward. Poor boating conditions today as strong low pressure in the western Atlantic continues to move away from our area.
Light northerly winds this morning will become more easterly throughout the day as the high pressure ridge axis slips to the east. Until then, a high pressure ridge axis centered over the region will keep the weather dry and quiet in the short term.
446 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 Winds are expected to pick up into the 30 to 35 knot range with occasional gusts to near 50 knots behind a cold front late this morning through the afternoon. A cold front will come racing through the Panhandles today. Also the base of the positively tilted trough will be moving across. On Saturday, north winds will likely stay up in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially across the southeast Texas Panhandle for much of the day as a strong upper level low moves southeast across eastern Oklahoma. Lowest relative humidity values will be generally in the lower to mid 20's.
423 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 Currently, temperatures range from the low 30s to the low 40s across the area.
Key Points: -Rain changing to accumulating snow east tonight -Rain changing to a mix of snow and freezing rain/drizzle west tonight -Strong northerly winds tonight/tomorrow will lead to blowing and drifting snow An Alberta Clipper will swing through the area tonight into tomorrow. Precipitation amounts vary a bit more, but a consensus favors around a half an inch of QPF across eastern KS and only a few hundredths along the Highway 81 corridor. How fast surface temperatures fall below freezing, and therefore, how fast rain changes to snow will play a big role in determining just how much snow accumulates. Areas under the dry slot are likely to see a transition from snow to freezing rain/drizzle as ice is evaporated out of the dendritic growth zone. To the west of the trough axis, strong northerly winds will develop.
356 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 (Issued 356 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022) Today Through Saturday: We had an initial burst of flurries just before midnight with the leading edge of the cold front. Snow from the low pressure system diving south from the Dakotas to Nebraska and Missouri will brush southwest WI this afternoon and evening. Mid level moisture from this system might interact with the low level moisture coming off the lake and produce a seeder feeder process so that everyone in southern WI gets at least flurries.
High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee with light N to E winds.
An upper level ridge builds into the region today.
High temps today wl be abt 5 to 10 degrees cooler as moisture/cloud cover conts to deepen ovr the region. Sfc winds wl start the day mainly fm the E/NE, eventually veering to the SE and incrsg later today/tngt as the low tracks closer to AR.
A dry cold front continues to drop southward through the Great Basin, and north to east surface pressure gradient is tightening across NorCal in its wake. North to east breezes with gusts up to 35 mph will be possible in the Sacramento Valley while gusts of 45 mph are expected across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada today.
We have decided to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for all but the I-70 counties (Trego and Ellis). There will likely be a band of light precipitation behind the initial frontal push later this afternoon/early evening followed by a second "round" of light precipitation as the mid level cyclone matures and occludes, sending the western periphery of the "comma head" around the backside of the low across nearly the same portion of central into south central Kansas.
A low pressure system passing through the Four Corners will bring gusty northeast winds from this afternoon into Saturday, followed by colder temperatures Saturday.
607 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Freezing fog has developed over a corridor near the Interstate 69 extension, from Indianapolis to Bloomington to Washington overnight and close to the GLAMP, HRRR and RAP. Would not rule out drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning, but lack of forcing with a ridge overhead supports leaving chances out.
- Higher confidence remains over the Minnesota River Valley and SW Mn where locally 8-10 inches will fall along the Buffalo Ridge.
245 AM PST Fri Jan 14 2022 A upper low to the southwest will continue to spread mid and high level cloudiness into Southern California along with a slight chance of spotty light rain again by Saturday. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will be building into the Great Basin this afternoon through Saturday.
/issued 423 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022/ Currently, temperatures range from the low 30s to the low 40s across the area.
314 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Eastern KY is in between systems today as one upper low continues to move off the east coast, and the next system is diving out of the northern plains.
Wind have shifted around to the NW as the next trough heads this way.
The cold front will move rapidly south across the area this evening and be south of the I-10 corridor shortly after midnight.
337 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Dry and cold through the weekend - An area of high pressure that has drifted down from the Canadian Prairies will move into the Great Lakes region this weekend.
Temperatures across the Tri-Cities are running a little warmer than current forecast so increased Max temperatures there for this afternoon. By mid morning, skies will sct out for the remainder of the day with mid level cigs returning late period as moisture advects in ahead of the approaching upper low. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 36 49 35 40 / 0 0 40 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 32 45 34 38 / 0 0 30 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 48 33 44 33 37 / 0 0 30 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 27 42 28 37 / 0 0 30 60 90 NC.
Deep upper level low/trough slowly tracking through Eastern Canada today, with strong high pressure (1045 MB) building over Ontario.
125 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 Western NOAM ridge will remain in place, supporting downstream active flow with impulses about every other day. Potent upper trough and associated frontal boundary is surging back south, with modified arctic air advecting back into the area via gusty NW winds. Have trimmed the high wind warning to the plains just east of the Black Hills where terrain squeezing will continue for a couple more hours and have opted for an adv the remainder of the old warning area, as flow is progged to quickly wane this afternoon.
A strong cold front was advancing through the western zones, with post-frontal gusts already near 50 mph. Cold front will clear the southeast zones by 3-4 pm, with intense north winds following. Kept minimal pops across eastern zones to account for any light rain and/or snow showers with the frontal band, or with the maturing cyclone Saturday morning. 12z NAM depicts 850mb winds near 60 mph near sunrise Saturday, and therefore the previous shift continued the high wind warning through 6 am Saturday. North winds will remain strong 6-9 am Saturday, and then rapidly diminish during the day as cold surface ridging builds into SW KS through sunset.
A ridge of high pressure will rebound across the region while lower level moisture remains trapped within the Snake River Plain supporting a continuation of low clouds and fog.
238 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 Strong wind is expected much of the upcoming 24 hours as our region will be in the southwest and western quadrant of a deepening low pressure system moving from South Dakota into southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas this time tomorrow. A strong cold front was diving southward through the region this afternoon being pushed by 3-hour surface pressure rises as much as 8 to 10 millibars aimed mainly through the southeast Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains. The airmass will dry at all levels overnight into Saturday on the back side of the deepening upper low. RMcQueen Winds will finally be on a downward trend by tomorrow night as the deepening upper low moves eastward across the Mississippi River Valley.
Water vapor shows clipper beginning to dive into the Northern Plains, with upper ridge building back into the Pac NW. At the surface, inverted surface extends northward through the western Dakotas with cold front pushing through southeast MT/northeast WY early this morning. Cold front will quickly dive through our area this morning, with very gusty northwest winds developing. Without much seeder/feeder mechanism, some drizzle/freezing drizzle at least during the morning hours is not out of the question for many areas. Snow and wind will come to an end quickly this evening, with frontal boundary beginning to lift back northeast as a warm front towards morning. Temps on Saturday will quickly rebound back into the 40s to near 50 west and 30s east as upper ridge builds through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
I-70 remains wet and given the snow rates are slowly weakening, we don't expect many issues on I-70 the rest of today though around sunset watch out for refreezing. The high wind warning will continue this afternoon but we'll likely cancel it a few hours early. Elsewhere through midnight, flurries cannot be ruled out in the wake of the trough, with weak instability showers redeveloping across NoCo. The low-levels continue to be very dry, especially downwind of the Cheyenne Ridge, so we don't expect any accumulation across the plains and I-25 corridor north of Castle Rock.
Kavinsky (Issued 356 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022) Today Through Saturday: We had an initial burst of flurries just before midnight with the leading edge of the cold front. Snow from the low pressure system diving south from the Dakotas to Nebraska and Missouri will brush southwest WI this afternoon and evening. Mid level moisture from this system might interact with the low level moisture coming off the lake and produce a seeder feeder process so that everyone in southern WI gets at least flurries.
Satellite and surface observations show fog and freezing fog have developed across much of the Basin this morning, while a layer of cirrus is overspreading the region from the west.
STP A clipper system moving through eastern Montana and the Dakotas early this morning has pushed a cold front across our forecast area. Brisk north/northwest winds have spread across our eastern zones along with a somewhat cooler air mass. This also includes the higher hills across our southeast zones. Based on soundings, we have added a slight chance of freezing drizzle in our east for this morning, but it should be patchy so any impacts from it minor at best. Look for the highest afternoon readings to range from near 40 west, to the middle 20s east.
Dewpoints are currently in the lower to mid 50s across the island chain, which has led to a comfortable morning. Winds have gradually decreased as the parent low of the cold front that pushed through yesterday shifts farther off to the northeast and the gradient relaxes. Winds will continue to decrease through the afternoon and temperatures are expected to peak in the lower to mid 70s by the afternoon.
1210 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Weak high pressure will move east across the region today as a cooler airmass settles into the area.
Cold front moved through the area this morning with strong winds behind the front. Attention turns to Saturday as upstream ridge axis shifts east into Nebraska.
347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
A strong cold front is working its way through the combined Panhandles as of this writing. /Issued 446 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022/ Winds are expected to pick up into the 30 to 35 knot range with occasional gusts to near 50 knots behind a cold front late this morning through the afternoon. A cold front will come racing through the Panhandles today. Also the base of the positively tilted trough will be moving across. On Saturday, north winds will likely stay up in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially across the southeast Texas Panhandle for much of the day as a strong upper level low moves southeast across eastern Oklahoma. Lowest relative humidity values will be generally in the lower to mid 20's.
These winds and mixing should keep fog more patchy in nature Saturday morning as some more high clouds drift over the region in association with the weak upper low. The forecast remains dry through the MLK weekend except near the SLO/Monterey county line where a stray shower associated with the weak upper low could occur but chances are slight at best. KSFO Bridge Approach.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the area today into the weekend, leading to a restrengthening inversion and continued air stagnation concerns. Winds aloft at 10K feet MSL: NW-NE 10-20 kt, shifting to SE-SW 10-20 kt as the center of the high passes over the region around 15/03Z. Generally VFR, but low stratus and valley fog will bring morning MVFR/IFR conditions as an upper ridge rebuilds into the area.
Stable air under a ridge of high pressure will stay situated over the Northern Rockies into Saturday.
In the wake of the clipper system today, lee side troughing will develop quickly tonight over central Montana, with tightening pressure gradients along the western foothills.
A quick check of the 24 temp change at 9 am showed all reporting sites across the CWA warmer this morning by 2-12 degrees depending on location. Friday's strong northerly winds will calm down for most of the area on Saturday as this ridging sets up, but are expected to linger down the Colorado River Valley through Saturday evening.
the High Wind Warning has been expanded in area to include Sherman, Thomas, Wallace, Logan, and Gove counties (i. The short term forecast focus is on the strong winds expected with the low pressure system moving across the region today through early Saturday. An upper trough dives south from the northern to the central high plains today as another short wave trough moving through the Intermountain west moves into the southern rockies and merges with the northern trough over the central plains overnight. The surface pressure gradient in the wake of the low maximizes across the forecast area between 18-00Z this afternoon. Blowing dust will be a possibility with gusts to 60mph, but confidence is low in any kind of widespread blowing dirt/dust event, so have only mentioned patchy blowing dust in the counties with the High Wind Warning.
140 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Weak high pressure will move east across the region today as a cooler airmass settles into the area.
Tomorrow night will be quite cold with low temperatures ranging from the low single digits near the MO/IA border to the teens elsewhere.
Surface ridging will keep winds generally light, less than 10kts. By mid morning, skies will sct out for the remainder of the day with mid level cigs returning late period as moisture advects in ahead of the approaching upper low.
Conditions will change abruptly behind a cold front, currently across far northwestern portions of the area. In addition to the fire and wind concerns, we also will have a chance for light wintry precipitation late tonight into tomorrow as a closed low begins to intensify to our south and east. Although some weak frontogenesis is shown through the 850mb layer on the backside of the developing closed low , model soundings reveal deep saturation and omega is lacking through the -12 to -18C layer, typically most favorable for dendritic snow growth.
Upper level trough and associated forcing exits to the south post- haste this evening.
Patchy drizzle or flurries will end this evening as a slow-moving cold front continues to sag south. Moisture advection is poor, even off of the lake due northeast flow in the low levels.
After 12Z Saturday, a cold front will move from west to east across the area and bring increasing chances for SHRA, MVFR or lower ceilings, and reduced visibility near areas of rain. Until then, a high pressure ridge axis centered over the region will keep the weather dry and quiet in the short term.
939 AM PST Fri Jan 14 2022 A upper low to the southwest will continue to spread mid and high level cloudiness into Southern California. High pressure will be building into the Great Basin this afternoon through Saturday, leading to gusty Santa Ana Winds starting this afternoon, peaking this evening through Saturday morning. The low to the southwest will bring some mid level moisture to the area on Saturday, with spotty light rain possible.
The highest amounts will be across west-central Illinois with much lesser amounts further east. Surface analysis this afternoon depicts an area of low pressure situated over the Texas panhandle. This will continue to work east today, positioning itself near the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and then across the Deep South come Saturday as a strong upper wave dives south toward the Gulf of Mexico. Further north across the local area, the axis of an inverted trough is approaching the region with WAA and isentropic lift noted out ahead of it.
Saturday a backdoor cold front moves through the eastern portion of the CWA increasing the surface pressure gradient, which will lead to gusty easterly winds during the morning and afternoon.
A positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains to the 4 Corners area mostly splits from the northern portion of the trof, with the southern portion strengthening and progressing towards the ArkLaTex region on Saturday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s inland to near 50 at the immediate coast.
Weak high pressure briefly builds across the area tonight.
652 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 Aviation/Marine - Dry and cold through the weekend - An area of high pressure that has drifted down from the Canadian Prairies will move into the Great Lakes region this weekend.
The area of high pressure was favoring a low-level offshore wind regime over northern California, which was subsequently supporting dry and mainly clear skies this afternoon along with mild temperatures. Short term model guidance indicates low-level offshore oriented winds will continue during the next 24 to 36 hours, which will yield mild and gusty ridgetop conditions tonight, and valley fog and stratus across the decoupled interior valleys.
then southeastward into the lower MS River Valley (Sat-Sat night). the High Wind Warning expiration time (06Z / 11 pm MST) appears to be on track. Sat-Sat night: Expect weakening northerly winds and a clearing trend assoc/w pronounced synoptic subsidence -- as the amplifying upper wave and associated surface cyclone depart to the southeast.
714 PM MST Fri Jan 14 2022 High temperatures in wake of the cold front will rise into the 30s to near 40 today, with increasing southwest to west winds over the plains of Central and North Central Montana this evening and into the day on Saturday.
135 PM PST Fri Jan 14 2022 A upper low to the southwest will continue to spread mid and high level cloudiness into Southern California. High pressure will be building into the Great Basin this afternoon through Saturday, leading to gusty Santa Ana Winds starting through Saturday, peaking this evening through Saturday morning. The low to the southwest will bring some mid level moisture to the area on Saturday, with spotty light rain possible.