Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 PM MDT Thu Apr 1 2021 High pressure ridge aloft will be over Colorado tonight before flattening out some on Friday as a weak wave passes overhead.
932 AM MDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Water vapor imagery showing broad upper ridge of high pressure building into Colorado today with very dry airmass in place. Northeast Colorado will remain dry and mostly clear Thursday as the upper ridge continues to build. The warming trend will continue and temperatures should be around 10 F warmer than normal Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows are also expected at almost 10 F warmer than normal Thursday night, in 30s F on the plains and almost 40 F in the Denver metro. A Rex block off the east coast of North America will result in upper level ridging for much of the CONUS through this weekend. On Friday, a weak trough will undercut the ridge and track across the Southern Rockies. Ridging will persist over the Central Rockies through the weekend.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with cooler temperatures along the coast with the clouds. Increasing clouds and cooler conditions expected to close out the week as high pressure exits western Washington to the east.
A Freeze Watch will be maintained for parts of NE OK and E-central OK due to lower certainty in freezing temperatures being met. Winds are expected to gust between 20 and 25mph across the area with the highest gusts generally along and northwest of I-44. Despite these southerly winds, moisture will be slow to move into the area thanks to a cold front scouring moisture in the Gulf as noted in the latest PWAT imagery showing low PWATs moving into the Gulf. Past tomorrow, occasionally windy and dry conditons along with a warming trend will persist thanks to mid level ridging and the area being sandwiched between high pressure in the southeast US and relatively low pressure on the front range.
/issued 805 AM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021/ A cold front is currently moving into the Nature Coast.
An extended dry and warming trend can then be anticipated under building high pressure. The exception would be in the higher elevations where colder sfc temperature are evident, thus a couple of inches may accrue. Most ideal conditions are maintained in the highest elevations of eastern Tucker County, WV where a Winter Weather Advisory continues through early evening. Snow will taper off tonight as the trough axis is pushed east in response to a building Great Lakes ridge. Lingering nrly flow on the eastern flank of building high pressure should maintain cold, dry, and mostly clear conditions Friday and Friday night.
346 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Gusty and exceptionally dry conditions across the region today as strong high pressure continues to build in behind yesterday's cold front. Some recovery back upwards is expected, but just how much they recover will impact what the lower bound of tonight's temps are. Lowest temps in this forecast don't quite drop to freezing, though a small bit of guidance does show the possibility in portions of central Louisiana.
400 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 A surface trof now digging into the western Dakotas will continue to intensify the surface pressure gradient across eastern ND and into western MN through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile a building H5 ridge aloft will provide overall airmass warming and generally fair skies. Cluster ensembles remain right on in favoring area temps at near or above freezing min temps and milder aftn readings, so p-type of rain would be optimized as short wave traverses the region while main dynamics remain to our north over the central Canadian prairies.
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Upper level ridging in command across the region with nothing other than a few cirrus clouds drifting overhead this afternoon. Much of the same expected for Friday although temperatures will likely be 10-15 degrees warmer than today's values. Fairly stagnant pattern through the weekend with continued ridging overhead and thus dry conditions. Given trends/verification of model guidance vs observations, have relied on a more mixed scenario and thus dewpoints in the lower half of guidance and winds in the upper half of guidance.
A quick- hitting storm system arrives on Friday, bringing virga and dry thunderstorms to the high terrain and increased cloud cover elsewhere.
/issued 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021/ Quiet and warmer weather is expected today and tonight. Upper level high pressure west of the area this morning will shift overhead tonight. RMcQueen The upper low currently situated just off the southern California coast will weaken to an open wave trough over the Four Corners region by tomorrow afternoon.
Blend temperatures in the low to mid 20s look significantly too warm given near ideal radiational cooling conditions anticipated overnight, as skies clear and winds go light to calm with the high center shifting into the area by morning. Bumped temps up only a bit as insolation continues to strengthen through the transition season, and daytime highs have tended to overperform in sunny conditions as of late, but depth and strength of turbulent mixing will be weaker with the high nearby.
357 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Trough over central New York slowly shifts east tonight and into New England by Friday evening.
Cool and dry high pressure across the Northland will propagate east tonight into Friday with strengthening southerly return flow through the day on Friday with a tight pressure gradient. Temperatures are expected to warm into the weekend under a broad upper level ridge with widespread highs in the 60s, and possibly a few 70s. Lake breezes will be in full force each day making it much cooler by the lake.
Freeze Warning remains in effect for tomorrow morning as lows will be even colder than this morning dropping down into the low/mid 20s with some isolated teens possible.
1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the Tennessee Valley, with upper ridging over the Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure is centered over eastern Nebraska and extends down into central TX. Broad area of upper ridging is expected over the central and northern Plains for the weekend which will continue to promote above normal temperatures. Both the GFS and ECMWF close off the upper low and track it east on the Tue night-Wed.
With lee troughing to the west and northwest of the Panhandles and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley, the pressure gradient across the Panhandles is on the stronger side today. An approaching upper closed low will eventually get embedded in the main flow tonight. Due to overall lack of moisture in the low to mid levels we are not expecting any precipitation with this system. For tomorrow, as the upper disturbance heads farther east through the Desert Southwest, winds aloft will become more westerly and this stronger cross-barrier flow should help intensify the lee troughing at the surface.
Northerly winds helped keep temperatures up a few degrees more than the models forecast this morning, but we did start out near freezing in many locations. The warmest guidance suggests that temperatures will be below freezing for the entire forecast area on Friday morning. However, northerly winds in the low-levels will keep temperatures on the cold side with highs only climbing into the low to mid 50s.
West of this trough. Across the Nebraska Panhandle east of the trough.
(This evening through Friday) A strengthening surface cyclone with an attendant increase in the pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds across the area tomorrow.
Forecast is in very good shape overall with highs still expected to range from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south this afternoon. The upper level trough is moving eastward through the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with a strong cold front now southeast of Central Alabama. This will keep frost development limited to sheltered locations across the north, despite the cooler temperatures. Temperatures around sunrise will be in the low to mid 30s north to lower 40s south. Strong cold advection and a tightened pressure gradient will lead to cooler and breezy conditions today. High pressure will move southeastward overnight, becoming centered over western TN Friday.
Hard freeze and killing frost tonight with lows in the mid 20s and winds becoming calm under high pressure. Quiet weather Friday through Friday night with high pressure still moving over the region.
312 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 1930Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low moving towards southern CA with the bulk of the energy over western Canada and the northern territory. At the surface, ridging over eastern KS has been weakening while a lee trough over the central high plains has been deepening. However the ridge axis was still over the TX gulf coast limiting any return of moisture north. Have lows around the freezing mark for far eastern KS with readings expected to hold around 40 for north central KS. Highs Friday are forecast to be about ten degrees warmer than todays highs as warm air advects north with the stronger winds. Think afternoon temps will range from the mid 60s over east central KS to the lower 70s across north central KS.
/EC/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with broad northwest flow across the region as a longwave trough lifts into New England. At the surface, high pressure will become centered over the southern Appalachians with ridging extending through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
353 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure moving into the area and the cold front offshore keeps the wind a little elevated through tonight. With temperatures dropping to near or below freezing tonight, that has prompted a Freeze Warning for the more inland counties.
Tonight, with another clear night, generally light winds, and considering we had a few locations drop into the 20s, have gone with lows from the mid 30s to lower 40s, with the cooler temperatures in our low lying, and valley locations across the southern half of the forecast area.
With the center of the high dropping southeast across Illinois overnight, southerly flow is expected to increase after midnight, which should help keep temperatures from free-falling. However, areas east of I-55 will be closer to the center of the high with lighter winds, and may be a bit prone to falling closer to 20 degrees. Geelhart Overall weather pattern through the weekend remains quiet, as the upper level ridge axis slowly edges into the central U.
Our low temperatures were on the warmer side and it seems the models have a little too much of a cold bias for high temperatures as of late. This pattern is largely due to an offshore area of high pressure exerting its influence over the area. We will be under the influence of this high pressure system over the next few days, however the influx of clouds will help keep morning lows a little milder while afternoon highs will be somewhat cooler.
High temperatures will be in the 60s pushing 70 in the lower elevations. A weak cold front will cross the region today and will bring afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts, mainly for DLS, PDT, ALW, BDN and PSC.
So, even though RHs will be low Friday afternoon, the lower wind speeds should negate the grassland fire danger to some degree.
404 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight through Friday.
At the surface, a diffuse warm frontal boundary has generally washed out as it has crossed the state and the pressure gradient continues to tighten a bit. We will likely see highs a bit warmer than today Friday afternoon, with plentiful readings in the lower 70s across the south. The one area to watch will be east of the Highway 83 corridor where we may see northwest winds approaching 20 mph for a couple hours in the afternoon. We transition to low amplitude west northwest flow aloft through the weekend as the broad upper ridge across the west continues to nudge into the region.
242 PM MDT Thu Apr 1 2021 An upper ridge will dominate our weather into this weekend with warm and dry conditions. Temperatures this afternoon are running just a few degrees cooler than record highs. Winds: low pressure moving eastward over northern Montana today into tonight has generated a strengthened sea-level pressure gradient over parts of southern Montana.
Weak low pressure will bring increased mid and high clouds today and a few localized sprinkles.
Have gone on the lower side of the guidance envelope considering the strength of the cold airmass. Even so, a few normally colder locations could briefly reach freezing around sunrise. Given the potential to get very close to freezing, there could be a few areas of frost across our northern tier of counties, so have elected to issue a frost advisory up against the freeze warnings to our north.
328 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure will move southeast of the region during this period. Warm air advection will lead to milder highs into the lower to middle 50s inland, with cooler values near the lake with winds shifting southeast.
The low was 23 degrees and from what I remember it was rather impactful. So, it's 6 days earlier and hopefully 3 degrees warmer.
Models show only modest warming at 850 mb Friday versus Thursday (net increase about +2C), allowing for afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s. Broad ridging and gradual warming will continue over the coming weekend.
Aloft, an upper ridge axis will draw closer before settling over the region Friday night.
350 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Light snow across portions of the region will taper off this evening as coastal low pressure pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes.
358 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Water vapor imagery continues to show upper troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the western CONUS leaving the region in northwest flow and increasing heights. The upper ridge will continue to push east tomorrow while a weakening cut off low also shifts east from southern California into the Desert Southwest.
1031 AM MDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Current surface map places high pressure from the central plains into the western Great Lakes. Flat upper ridge sets up across the area through the weekend with a few embedded impulses crossing the northern plains.
A much colder and drier airmass continues to usher into the region following a strong cold frontal passage. Ridging aloft builds into the region through the period. Highs today have managed to creep into the low 60s in some areas southeast of I-65 with even some mid 60s right near the coast. Concerns for freezing and sub-freezing temperatures tonight remain for the northern half of the CWA and a Freeze Warning is now in effect. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 30s inland with mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. Lastly, another Freeze Watch will also be put out for locations again that are expected to be at freezing or sub-freezing temps on Friday night.
In addition much warmer air has also moved into the region with many readings in the lower to mid 60s.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Forecast Highlights: -- Warmer today, even warmer tomorrow into the weekend. As the high pressure exits the state and moves east towards IL/IN this afternoon, winds will shift to be out the south allowing temperatures to rebound from this morning and push highs today into the mid to low 40s, about 5-10 degrees above yesterday's high temperatures in many places. TOMORROW THRU THIS WEEKEND: Ridging and increasing mid-level heights tomorrow into the weekend will make sunshine abundant over the next few days.
135 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Scattered snow showers continue to flare up on the backside of a trailing upper-level trough, and will continue to diminish in intensity and areal coverage through 21z-22z as the greater influence of building high pressure and drier air from the west takes hold. The deep upper level trough slowly traverses the region today maintaining this cold airmass overhead. With the upper level trough beginning to move east, height rises work into SE MI by mid to late morning further decreasing the depth of moisture with saturation occuring around/below 4000ft. Another cold night is in store tonight as skies clear dropping lows into the low 20s to upper teens. Ridging develops over the central US Friday and slowly moves east toward the Great Lakes.
The combination of cloudier skies, stronger winds, and warmer temperatures aloft will lead to a more mild night with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30's to low 40's.
1152 AM MDT Thu Apr 1 2021 A ridge pattern continues for the next few days causing dry weather and above-normal temperatures across the region.
249 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 18Z surface data has high pressure from Lake Superior into the southern Plains. Cold Canadian high pressure will move across the area tonight. The wind combined with dry air and warmer temperatures will result in an elevated grassland fire risk, especially for areas west of the Mississippi.
/issued 346 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021/ Gusty and exceptionally dry conditions across the region today as strong high pressure continues to build in behind yesterday's cold front. Some recovery back upwards is expected, but just how much they recover will impact what the lower bound of tonight's temps are. Lowest temps in this forecast don't quite drop to freezing, though a small bit of guidance does show the possibility in portions of central Louisiana.
721 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 (This evening through Friday) A strengthening surface cyclone with an attendant increase in the pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds across the area tomorrow.
1930Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low moving towards southern CA with the bulk of the energy over western Canada and the northern territory. At the surface, ridging over eastern KS has been weakening while a lee trough over the central high plains has been deepening. However the ridge axis was still over the TX gulf coast limiting any return of moisture north. Have lows around the freezing mark for far eastern KS with readings expected to hold around 40 for north central KS. Highs Friday are forecast to be about ten degrees warmer than todays highs as warm air advects north with the stronger winds. Think afternoon temps will range from the mid 60s over east central KS to the lower 70s across north central KS.
The weak Pacific cold front will bring with it more moisture which will help to moderate the 40 to 50 degree diurnal we have seen over the past few days, as precipitable water values double over this afternoons readings. The higher moisture combined with weaker winds will also lessen the fire dangers across the area on Friday from where they were today. Looking for temperatures to reach the lower 70s tomorrow afternoon, after breaking record highs in Billings and Sheridan this afternoon. Chambers An upper ridge will dominate our weather into this weekend with warm and dry conditions. Temperatures this afternoon are running just a few degrees cooler than record highs. Winds: low pressure moving eastward over northern Montana today into tonight has generated a strengthened sea-level pressure gradient over parts of southern Montana.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ North and Central Texas remains under the influence of high pressure tonight, resulting in another clear and cool night with lows in the mid 30s and low 40s. Mid and high clouds will increase as this system approaches late Friday afternoon and evening, but precipitation is not expected as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain dry.
A return to more southerly winds will keep temperatures above freezing across much of the far western part of the forecast area, but another night of readings falling to at or below freezing is likely across most of the rest of the area. Much of Osage and perhaps Washington Counties will most likely stay above freezing, but the normally colder locations such as the official KBVO observation site will likely fall below.
538 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 High pressure is centered over the middle Missouri River Valley this afternoon and will slowly shift east across the Midwest through the weekend.
Scattered lake effect snow showers enhanced by diurnally driven instability under elevated cold pool (H5 temperatures at -30C or less) will dissipate early this evening as daytime heating is lost (and also as upper trough axis pivots east of the region). Subsidence associated with building high pressure in the wake of the trough will lead to rapid clearing over most of the region this evening with clouds hanging on longest over the Thumb with the northerly low level trajectory off of Lake Huron. This high will also bring lighter winds which will aid (along with clear skies) in strong cooling overnight with low temperatures falling into the teens to lower 20s by early Friday morning. The center of this high settles quickly south of the region Friday with return southwesterly flow bringing milder readings with highs reaching the 40s under mostly sunny skies.
A surface trof now digging into the western Dakotas will continue to intensify the surface pressure gradient across eastern ND and into western MN through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile a building H5 ridge aloft will provide overall airmass warming and generally fair skies. Cluster ensembles remain right on in favoring area temps at near or above freezing min temps and milder aftn readings, so p-type of rain would be optimized as short wave traverses the region while main dynamics remain to our north over the central Canadian prairies.
957 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 (This evening through Friday) A strengthening surface cyclone with an attendant increase in the pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds across the area tomorrow.
High temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer, with another round of 70s in the valleys. Winds will be light in the lower valleys but gusty in the afternoon at higher elevations.
High pressure ridge aloft will be over Colorado tonight before flattening out some on Friday as a weak wave passes overhead.
Breezy northerly winds this evening continue and are the primary forecast obstacle tonight as the winds will need to lower considerably if target lows near freezing are to verify. Primary forecast adjustment was to raise the overnight expected low across the Pine Belt a degree or two as that area is least likely to reach freezing with stronger overnight winds and by virtue of being further south, away from the deepest cold air. /EC/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with broad northwest flow across the region as a longwave trough lifts into New England. At the surface, high pressure will become centered over the southern Appalachians with ridging extending through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
816 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 High pressure promoting clear conditions across the Tennessee Valley region as northerly flow continues to reinforce the cold, dry air mass in place. Models continue to show them relaxing after Midnight, which would allow temperatures to plummet in this cold, dry air mass below the freezing mark and into the upper 20s in most locations. After a cold start Friday morning, temperatures should get up into the low-to-mid 50s Friday afternoon.
927 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure moving into the area and the cold front offshore keeps the wind a little elevated through tonight. With temperatures dropping to near or below freezing tonight, that has prompted a Freeze Warning for the more inland counties.
-SHRA/TS will likely develop near the high terrain aft 18Z then spread east-northeast around 15 kt into nearby valleys and highlands. The ridge of high pressure over NM now will shift east, allowing a low nearing northern Baja, CA to move inland.
High pressure building into the Tennessee Valley is leading to clear, sunny skies today, however the northerly winds on the leading edge of the High is helping to keep temperatures cool. After a cold start Friday morning, temperatures should get up into the low-to-mid 50s Friday afternoon.
Weak upper level trough moving across the region. This should keep temperatures a little warmer with lows in the 30s to mid 40s.