Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weak, if somewhat unfavorable, flow has allowed for some of this activity to develop over and just Gulf side of the Lower Keys. Forecast - Weak flow will persist across the area over the next couple of days as the Atlantic ridge remains in retreat to the east. The low over Florida will lift out to the north and northeast tonight and tomorrow and another inverted trough will ride northwest into the Bahamas.
Currently, terminals are MVFR/VFR with the higher ceilings over the northern terminals. By late this afternoon, the next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of ern NM and sern CO as well as parts of the fcst area where residual boundaries may exist from the early morning crop of showers and storms.
Early this afternoon, weak warm front was stretched from northern Arkansas across southern Middle Tennessee. Having said all that, did not make too many changes to period one PoPs and trended on the higher end of the CAMs guidance and Blended output.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the lower to middle 70s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS. Upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS.
157 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front will cross the area today, bringing the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms.
1147 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Patchy fog is not as extensive as initially expected early this morning due to the more extensive coverage of the lower stratus that formed overnight in the wake of the exiting showers. Northwest flow remains in place aloft across the central Rockies and High Plains through Saturday with several impulses expected to move east of the Rockies and across the high plains over the next couple of days.
The latest mid level wave will exit tonight, then a weak cold front will push into the area on Saturday. We start the period with a few showers and storms around but the bulk of the precip will have moved off to the east as a cold front is entering the area.
1135 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Large upper level low expected to move across the state today.
345 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 (Today and Saturday) An upper level high centered over central Texas will lead to another warm and mainly dry night across our area. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with lows in the lower to mid 70s. On Saturday, the upper high will remain centered across the southern half of the CWA. (Saturday night through Friday) A cold front is forecast to stall across North Texas Saturday night, with shower and thunderstorms development across much of North Texas/Oklahoma.
101 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 with the associated cold front currently sliding eastward thru Lower Michigan. Narrow dry slot just ahead of the cold front continues to steadily fill in with developing low clouds. as CAA continues to strengthen in the wake of the cold front. Cooler with lingering showers/thunder today. long wave troughing remains across much of eastern NOAM with long wave ridging along the west coast/Rockies. Surface cold front slips through the CWA during the course of the day with post-frontal wrap around moisture/stratus/increasing shower chances overspreading the region.
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Cold front that pushed through KS late last night is currently situated down along the Red River with a slightly cooler and drier airmass spilling into the region. Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least mid week before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern Plains which will push the stronger westerlies north. Should also see a return to more seasonal temps by the end of the work week as we get highs back to the low 90s. The higher moisture content has the cigs in the mvfr range at most sites but a couple in ifr.
The chance for showers will persist across eastern counties tomorrow with a cold front passing over the region during the daytime hours. Weak high pressure will move over the Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend, and dry weather is expected.
519 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A crossing cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Saturday.
130 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A slow moving cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening.
Even with the below normal temperatures, expect to see the muggy conditions to continue given the high surface dewpoints. The higher moisture content has the cigs in the mvfr range at most sites but a couple in ifr.
208 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 142 PM CDT Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper trough advancing eastward across the Great Lakes this afternoon. This is ushering cooler mid level air into the area as the low level flow turns more northerly. High pressure over the northern plains will move southeast into Saturday before moving overhead later Saturday.
258 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Northwest flow aloft will be present across western Nebraska tonight as an upper trough in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba drops into Montana and North Dakota. Weak upper ridging will exist across the Great Basin. On Saturday, a fairly strong upper trough located across Montana eastward through North Dakota, will drop southeast and bring good chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
102 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Cold front has now pushed into southeastern IL near Interstate 70. The cold front hasn't reached Illinois quite yet, but is progged to reach the Illinois River valley toward 4-5 am and should be in the southeast CWA by midday. Further to the northwest, some clearing should take place in the afternoon as high pressure begins to move southeast out of Minnesota, and the arrival of drier air ahead of it will allow for temperatures to fall into the 50s tonight.
344 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A slow moving cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening.
212 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
358 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms found along it this evening.
The sky should clear out across the area tonight with morning lows from the low to mid 60s. The drier air mass will linger across the area on Saturday with highs again in the low to mid 80s. We will begin to change the upper pattern slightly with some ridging over the area by midweek and then some southwest flow ahead of a trough for the latter part of the week. This will help to bring warmer temperatures back to the area for the middle to later half of next work week along with higher instability.
1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 The low stratus will gradually shift east and south of the local area this afternoon as the responsible low pressure system treks eastward.
110 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front crosses tonight and Saturday.
Patch low to mid level cloudiness was noted over the the plains this morning while variable high level cloudiness was over the high country. Temperatures were mild across the plains and valleys, although mtn tops were quite cool with readings approaching freezing, especially across the central mtns. Min temps tonight are forecast to be a tad bit cooler than this mornings forecasted lows.
316 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Cold front extends from about Bad Axe southwest to Benton Harbor. Freezing levels only 12k ft with strongest updrafts supporting up to 35k ft tops so far. Broad 500mb trough will linger over the Great Lakes Saturday aiding in a fair amount of cu development.
141 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front crosses tonight and Saturday.
233 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Early this afternoon, weak warm front was stretched from northern Arkansas across southern Middle Tennessee. Having said all that, did not make too many changes to period one PoPs and trended on the higher end of the CAMs guidance and Blended output.
143 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 142 PM CDT Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper trough advancing eastward across the Great Lakes this afternoon. This is ushering cooler mid level air into the area as the low level flow turns more northerly. High pressure over the northern plains will move southeast into Saturday before moving overhead later Saturday.
1109 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Wildfire smoke from fires in British Columbia, Montana and northern Washington trapped under an area of high pressure will persist through at least Saturday. A weakening storm system will result in cooler temperatures and an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday and lasting through the weekend.
137 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Upper trough continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. while ridging remains over the west coast.
301 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 With high pressure dominating the area over the next couple of days, quieter, cooler and drier weather is expected.
1040 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Wildfire smoke from fires in British Columbia, Montana and northern Washington trapped under an area of high pressure will persist through at least Saturday. A weakening storm system will result in cooler temperatures and an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday and lasting through the weekend.
417 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore tonight.
THe upper level ridge of high pressure is moving off to the east today as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Cooler weather is expected this weekend as the upper level trough moves over the area.
251 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A cold front crosses tonight and Saturday.
Plenty of moisture lingering over the area, and a cold front will be moving in late.
151 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Patchy fog is not as extensive as initially expected early this morning due to the more extensive coverage of the lower stratus that formed overnight in the wake of the exiting showers. Northwest flow remains in place aloft across the central Rockies and High Plains through Saturday with several impulses expected to move east of the Rockies and across the high plains over the next couple of days.
249 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest this weekend leading to seasonable temperatures and mainly sunny skies.
A few weak returns over DVL basin however with zilch shear and marginal instability under the high will hold off on any pops.
Upper Low over Saskatchewan is tracking SE into NE Montana by evening. There is a nice little cold front associated with this feature being pushed south/southeastward toward our CWA. Otherwise, convection will generally be limited to the higher elevations and west this weekend.
Widely scattered light rain showers should diminish by early evening as the 850 mb trough axis shifts to our east. Clouds should clear from west to east early tonight, as high pressure builds into the upper Mississippi valley. Light northerly winds will turn northeasterly along the Lake during the afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler high temperatures in the east.
Weak thermal troughing over that area is leading to some higher cape values, which is aiding to trigger the activity. Otw, look for a cold front to reach the area late tonight.
1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Broad cyclonic flow prevailing over the region this morning as main upper trough continues moving through the northern Great Lakes. With time this morning, expect activity to eventually start settling to the south as high pressure attempts to build in from the northwest. As such, much of the day will be dry following this morning's activity with afternoon highs climbing back into the lower 80s for most as skies attempt to clear later in the day. This is likely in response to a more westward positioning of a high pressure center to our north which should lead to an influx of drier air as winds remain from the north through much of the day. Despite this, ample sunshine should allow temps to warm right back up into the lower 80s Saturday afternoon.
Upper high was located over Texas with the associated ridge axis southeast to upper Texas coast over northwest Gulf. Upper level high will remain west and warming in the mid layers will remain west as well.
High pressure overhead this morning resulting in some isolated areas of fog, while to the northwest we can see a weak wave drifting southeast. Otherwise, high pressure centers to the east, with a weak lee low to the west resulting in light southerly flow, with only an 8mb gradient across the state.
330 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A low pressure center is making its way through the Great Lakes this afternoon, and the associated cold front has slipped south of Interstate 70 and out of ILXs forecast area. Overnight will be cooler as clear skies and light winds in general set up for some radiational cooling more so than a major difference in airmasses behind the front.
A broad upper trough remains in place across the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
This will dissipate by 8 pm or so leaving clear skies and light winds as high pressure settles in overhead. Given the low level moisture still near the sfc from recent rains, we'll likely see widespread frost tonight up there and we have issued a frost advisory for late tonight for the Lake, Osceola, and Clare counties.
Expect this low to track east southeast over the next 24 hours as convection across the high plains shifts eastward. afternoon temperatures tomorrow should be 3-5 degrees cooler than this afternoon across the board. A fairly stagnant weather pattern is anticipated across the local area as an upper level low will spend several days spinning off the coast of California and hurricane Irma lifts north into the southeastern US. Expect the upper level ridge across the intermountain west to eventually break down late in the period as the aforementioned upper low off California tracks east and a large disturbance to the north approaches the local area.
Tide levels are SLOWLY going down with the low tide coming so concerns on tidal overflow have diminished. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, but remain below normal for the time of the year.
Ridging will continue tonight over the area with any afternoon/evening mountain based storms dissipating with sunset. Overnight the surface trof that has been resident along the east slopes of the divide will shift eastward and broaden out allowing more westerly flow into the area and advecting more smoke into the area for late tonight into tomorrow. For Saturday, upper ridge breaks down allowing winds to downslope into the area, adding a few degrees to the forecast temperatures. A cold front with a wind shift to the north arrives Saturday night.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered just north of Lake Superior early this afternoon. Rather large high pressure system will be sliding into the central Great Lakes, providing mostly clear skies and light winds. With similar pwats to last night, low temps should be around last nights readings, perhaps slightly cooler over eastern WI where there will be less clouds. Lows ranging from the lower 30s in the north to the mid 40s near Lake Michigan. High pressure will remain over the region. Temps will be a degree or two warmer than todays highs.
There was a leeside trough in the lower troposphere, which provided enough pressure gradient across southwest Kansas for 20 to 25 mph wind out of the south today. The upper high will be centered from the Desert Southwest region into Wyoming, and this will help keep the lower troposphere very warm/hot across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
A trough of low pressure will bring cooler weather through Saturday, but also moisture for some thunderstorms during afternoons and early evenings in the mountains and deserts.
The latest radar was showing some showers mainly over the eastern zones and this is in response to a low pressure system over cali pumping moisture into the region. Other than some minor changes to sky along with overnight low temps that will fall into the 60s except into the 50s across the higher elevations.
A southeast wind across western Nebraska with dewpoints in the upper 50s east to the low 40s in Sheridan county. An upper trough will deepen slightly across the western and central Dakotas tonight. The higher 30 percent chances confined to Cherry county overnight. On Saturday, The upper trough will move into the eastern Dakotas and extend southeast into the mid Missouri Valley. Highs Saturday will reach around 90 in the western zones to the low 80s east. The upper trough will move slowly east Saturday night, with a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms east of Bassett through Broken Bow.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level ridge from TX through CO/southwest WY and also near the SK/AB border, with an embedded upper-level trough in western MT. Deep upper-level trough was noted over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS. A jet streak was rounding the base of that trough, extending from OH through southern New England. Mid-level ridging extended from the Arklatex area through the upper Midwest, with 850mb moisture limited to just around FL and southern TX, then in the AZ/CA border area and in the CA/OR border area. Then, as the upper-level trough weakens and lifts to the east/northeast across the upper Midwest, showers should wane and exit the area.
Bigelbach Previous Discussion: A hot high pressure ridge aloft is in control across the region. Saturday, a Canadian Pacific coast broad upper-level trough will try to sweep along the international border, but NE Montana will remain in the pre-frontal, compressional heating zone.
A cold front will move through Western Washington on Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and some rain.
High pressure across the area will keep winds light and prevailing conditions VFR through the TAF period.
Enough Omega/upward vertical motion in the lower levels to keep the atmosphere more unstable overnight, with less fog development, thus patchy. The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating along the southwest ND/northwest SD border.
As Irma moves closer to southern Florida, high pressure to the north holds in place creating a tighter pressure gradient over the CWA. with high pressure located over the Great Lakes region and a weak area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast. with influence of exiting cyclone off of the far New England coast along with the Bermuda high.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. After a round of early morning showers and a few thunderstorms, cooler boundary layer air and lingering clouds has hampered storm development so far this afternoon in Yavapai and southern Coconino counties. A closed upper low centered just offshore of central California is causing an increase in southerly flow and moisture across the region this afternoon and this will persist through Saturday.
Highs on Saturday should be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, and winds will be a little breezier too.
707 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 An upper level trough will slowly cross the state on Saturday.
Continued light surface winds are expected to hinder fog formation, but a few areas, especially along the Buffalo Ridge, will likely see patchy fog around sunrise Saturday. Weak troughing moving through during the evening hours will continue to produce lingering showers into Saturday night.
Cooler and breezy weather will prevail for the weekend thinning the smoke out. More significant improvement to VFR conditions on Saturday as winds increase and a cold front brings increased cloud cover to Central and NE Washington in the afternoon.
The pattern aloft continues to look unfavorable for rainfall as much of the area will be dominated by high pressure aloft. The resulting track of Irma will help determine where the center of this high aloft will be located, and we have seen several shifts in the forecast track the last several days.
Smoke is still an issue today over much of the area, but latest HRRR guidance shows the smoke column pushing to the east with the upper level trough by Saturday morning. Saturday will see warmer temps back into the 80s and 90s as the thermal ridge moves overhead. We'll remain within the plume of mid/upper level moisture, so expect a few afternoon showers/storms mainly along and west of the Laramie Range in the afternoon as the eastern plains look to reside within an area of subsidence in the wake of the upper trough.
1021 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates through the weekend. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will continue to funnel cooler than normal temperatures southward Saturday, despite abundant sunshine. Will continue with the primarily clear and dry with high pressure in control over the Great Lakes.
Clear skies were abundant throughout NE Kansas this afternoon with 10-15 kts of southerly flow on the equatorial side of a warm front lifting north across Nebraska and Iowa. Early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicated a region of cirrus dropping ESE on the downstream flank of a quasi-stationary upper tropospheric ridge over the Rockies. Low temperatures tonight will hinge somewhat on how quickly the high clouds arrive. These clouds, coupled with a slightly stronger southerly surface flow, will likely keep temps warmer than last night. The low level jet increases after 00Z to 35 to 40 kts however best moisture flux looks to remain to the northwest of the CWA.
Another upper trof will move east-southeast across the northern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night, though the tail end of the associated forcing and instability should remain just north of the forecast area, so will keep PoPs below Chc10 along I-70.
930 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail through the overnight period allowing for clear skies and low temperatures falling into the mid to upper 50s due to radiation cooling. /issued 609 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017/ High pressure over AR will bring continued skc vfr conditions and lgt e-ne low lvl flow into area.
627 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 With high pressure remaining overhead VFR conditions with ENE winds between 5 and 10 knots will prevail at all terminals through the period. After another cool morning, temperatures have rebound nicely into the low to mid 80s across the region. Have dropped low temperatures under the SuperBlend for Saturday morning given this morning's readings in some of the lower drainage areas.
Ridge extends from NM thru MT and into Saskatchewan/Manitoba while downstream trof extends from Quebec into the eastern CONUS. The mid-level trof has been shifting e, and now that the associated upper jet axis on the backside of the trof is e of the fcst area, weather conditions have improved after the unsettled weather of the last few days. Although the day started clear for much of the fcst area, except over portions of n central Upper MI, 850mb thermal trof over the Upper Lakes combined with moisture added by Lake Superior led to blossoming of stratocu during the mid and late morning as daytime heating got underway. Quiet weather will dominate the short term as upstream mid-level ridge shifts to the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes. Overall, have generally utilized the lower end of avbl guidance for min temps.
1040 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 High pressure has shifted to the southeast in response to the closed low pressure system drifting southward just off the West Coast according to 12Z model initializations.
748 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 High pressure will begin to move into the area overnight with clearing skies and cool temperatures.
529 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Upper analysis currently showing a broad upper ridge over the western two-thirds of the CONUS with a trough over the east. At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the northern Rockies with a high pressure center over the Great Lakes region. Some convection has already develop over the higher elevations of the Black Hills but so far the cell have only been weak and short-lived.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 81 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 75 50 74 / 0 0 0 0.