Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs will range from the lower 50s across Northeast Arkansas to near 70 degrees across Northeast Mississippi. A warm front will lift northward from the Gulf Coast today and will stall out across Southern Mississippi and Southern Alabama tonight. Winds will begin to turn around to the north tonight once the front begins to sag back to the south as a cold front. This will just be in time for an upper level trof that will move through the region on Wednesday.
The cold high pressure area over Saskatchewan responsible for the current pattern begins to move off to the east today but there is still one more cold day ahead.
Over the higher terrain as the flow aloft becomes more northwest later this aftn orographics will be more favorable into the early evening hours with 1 to 4 inches possible in some areas. As for highs, readings will stay mainly in the lower to mid 20s over the plains. Over the higher terrain snow should gradually end by midnight as well. High pressure ridge aloft will shift across Colorado during the day on Wednesday with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Behind the trof, westerly flow will be increasing Wednesday and Wednesday night with gusty winds developing over the higher mountains and foothills. For now looks like the highest winds will remain over the mountain passes and higher exposed foothills locations.
Ceilings around 5-6 kft this morning should scatter out this afternoon, but return late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The stalled boundary/weak trough remains well offshore of the Middle Texas Coast. This will send the associated surface cold front quickly through South Texas tonight shortly after midnight. The tightened pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions over land ushering in cooler and drier air late tonight and through Wednesday. This will allow temperatures tonight to lower into the low to mid 50s, while highs for Wednesday are expected to only warm into the lower 70s.
At 500 mb, a weak closed low was over southeast NE, with 12 hour height falls of around 100 meters in northeast KS. This low had strengthened slightly the past 12-15 hours and had moved to southwest IA early this morning. Another closed low was back near the CA/NV/AZ border.
A reinforcing mass of cooler air will move across the region this evening, helping to drive night time lows into the low/mid 40s.
The stalled boundary/weak trough remains well offshore of the Middle Texas Coast. This will send the associated surface cold front quickly through South Texas tonight shortly after midnight. The tightened pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions over land ushering in cooler and drier air late tonight and through Wednesday. This will allow temperatures tonight to lower into the low to mid 50s, while highs for Wednesday are expected to only warm into the lower 70s.
403 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 An impressive upper level low pressure system over northern Arizona will move east-northeast today while gradually filling, reaching southwest Kansas by late tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front was stalled over the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle but was still edging southward to nearly Lubbock and Snyder. But a number indicate at least low expected amounts from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch, with incomplete saturation through the lower atmosphere being a significant limiter. Then another weak cold front will move southward later tonight on the back side of the upper low. The above mentioned system will bring a cold front through the forecast area by Wednesday morning.
The area will remain generally dry and cold through the short term as high pressure sinks down over South Dakota. Clouds will be the major challenge as they attempt to deflect the worst of the caa coming in with the high. During the day, clouds will keep temps a few degrees cooler, especially across central SD which has little snow on the ground. Upper ridging will build over the western Plains on Wednesday bringing some waa. Temperatures will begin to recover, but cooler than normal readings are still forecast.
523 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 (Today and tonight) On the synoptic scale, an amplified/progressive flow pattern continues with the next in a series of troughs passing through our region tonight. Wet bulb temperatures would support snow, but rates will probably be insufficient to saturate to the wet bulb temperature, and a slightly above freezing isothermal layer would be deep enough for rain. Again, low probability/light amounts, with some conditionality on ptype tied to not just ambient temperatures but rates and ability to fully saturate the low levels (unlikely).
424 AM MST Tue Jan 26 2021 The closed low pressure is currently located over northwest Arizona and will continue to push eastward through out the day. The precipitation coverage should increase again later this morning as the low moves over the Four Corners, which is where the large-scale lift will be maximized. Midlevel flow will transition from southwest to the west this afternoon as the low pressure crosses the Divide allowing some of the northwest facing slopes to become favored. Strong inversions will develop over the higher valleys so fog and or low stratus could form as well. Tomorrow the southwest flow increases as the next trough makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday, flow aloft turns southwesterly as a deep trough briefly stalls along the Pacific Northwest coast.
537 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 Rain and freezing rain this morning will transition to all rain this afternoon with ice accumulations expected across northern portions of the forecast area and in the eastern ridges this morning. The remainder of the week will be largely dry with cooler temperatures. Freezing rain mainly north of Pittsburgh by daybreak and in the ridges will slowly transition to all rain from south to north as winds veer south and surface temperatures warm. and more spotty areas to the south where surface temperatures are still near freezing have been handled with SPSs.
Cyclonic flow aloft continues this morning, with a closed low over Manitoba expected to slowly push east through the short term. At the surface, persistent arctic high pressure is centered over Manitoba, with northeast surface winds but weak flow in the mid levels across the forecast area. Ridging starts to build over the northern Rockies on Wednesday in response to a deepening trough over the eastern Pacific.
/issued 250 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021/ High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida today with continued mild conditions across the area. An U/L disturbance will push across the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday with an associated cold front pushing southeast across the Florida peninsula late Wednesday and Wednesday night. U/L support will be lifting away from the region as the cold front pushes across the remainder of the forecast area which will cause shower activity to decrease in areal coverage as the band of showers pushes southeast Wednesday evening.
With high pressure in place, expect Wednesday to be dry.
Surface temperatures have also trended slightly warmer, meaning more of a rain/snow mix would be expected with any precipitation that does fall across northern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with all rain expected from I-40 south. The best chance for accumulating snow looks to be across far northwest Arkansas, where slightly better moisture will be in place by Wednesday morning and the higher elevation will provide cooler surface temps.
543 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will stall across the Big Country today but will have little effect, other then slightly cooler temperatures from yesterday, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Recent reports over the advisory area indicate that precipitation that has been occurring over the past few hours has been a mix of light freezing drizzle and light snow with the only glazing on elevated surfaces. The first will bring enough ascent through this morning to bring a chance of light snow or light freezing rain this morning, but any amounts will be light. This system will lift northeast of the area and expect dry conditions until the late evening and overnight before ascent begins to increase ahead the next trough. Britt Latest guidance from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles is still showing a upper ridge building across the middle over the CONUS by late in the week that will set up northwest flow over Missouri and Illinois.
/issued 207 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/ Quite the longwave trough pattern across the western and central CONUS with a deep upper low helping to dump snow on the mountains of AZ this past few days. That same upper low will open up and shove eastward with passage to our north during the day today. Perhaps enough to lightly coat the higher peaks, but overall a mundane setup for snow.
A hard freeze warning has been posted for the lower deserts from 2 AM to 9 AM on Wednesday.
With high pressure still generally residing over our neck of the woods, today will be another dry day with seasonable temperatures.
259 AM MST Tue Jan 26 2021 The closed low pressure is currently located over northwest Arizona and will continue to push eastward through out the day. The precipitation coverage should increase again later this morning as the low moves over the Four Corners, which is where the large-scale lift will be maximized. Midlevel flow will transition from southwest to the west this afternoon as the low pressure crosses the Divide allowing some of the northwest facing slopes to become favored. Strong inversions will develop over the higher valleys so fog and or low stratus could form as well. Tomorrow the southwest flow increases as the next trough makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday, flow aloft turns southwesterly as a deep trough briefly stalls along the Pacific Northwest coast.
1012 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 Residual areas of freezing drizzle and freezing light rain will transition to showers as the morning progresses. The remainder of the week will feature cooler temperature, but drier weather. waning, the winter headlines were allowed to expire although patchy freezing drizzle and light rain will rapidly cross the I 80 corridor through the rest of the morning. Digging low pressure over nern OH is dragging a warm front across the Upr OH River Valley and that should completely alleviate any additional trace ice potential as aftn approaches.
335 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A weak area of low pressure will pass over our region this evening. This will result in steady accumulating snow east of Lake Ontario with areas of freezing drizzle over the western counties. the pcpn for the remainder of the daylight hours over the western counties will be either freezing drizzle or light snow showers.
BDL A warm front currently remains entrenched across far NE Georgia this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is moving across central Mississippi. Do expect the warm front to finally push north of the CWA this morning as the front approaches the state. Models continue to prog a low pressure wave developing across the northern Gulf and moving east along the stalled boundary on Wednesday. Strong storms have developed out ahead of the cold front across central Alabama. Any threat for stronger storms will shift southward later this morning and early afternoon across southern portions of the CWA ahead of the cold front. NListemaa Rain will be exiting at the start of the period as a cold front clears the area to the east.
As the low approaches, it will provide some upper-level lift over the area. Along with the lift from the low, a cold front will drop through the area, providing some low lift. As temperatures drop below freezing, this precipitation will transition to light snow. With temperatures being well below freezing in this area, slick spots on the roadway may form.
218 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A wintry mix of light snow and freezing drizzle or drizzle will continue through the evening.
329 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 The weather pattern regionally continues to be dominated by a broad high pressure system located north of Puerto Rico. The Florida Keys are in its western periphery as the ridge bumps into a developing storm system over the southeastern United States. Latest satellite imagery show only a few cloud streamers over the Florida Straits and the Lower Keys, and the weather conditions remain mostly sunny across the island communities. The storm system mentioned earlier over the southeastern United States is expected to move northeast on Wednesday and drag a cold front across the Florida Peninsula.
A few clouds continue to hang around has a cold front draped across the Plains and another front to our south pushes moisture into the area. Otherwise, today should be a nice day, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to our north and upper 60s to our south. Highs will range from the lower 50s across Northeast Arkansas to near 70 degrees across Northeast Mississippi. A warm front will lift northward from the Gulf Coast today and will stall out across Southern Mississippi and Southern Alabama tonight. Winds will begin to turn around to the north tonight once the front begins to sag back to the south as a cold front. This will just be in time for an upper level trof that will move through the region on Wednesday.
1200 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A warm front will remain north of the area today with a cold front moving through area this afternoon then stalling just south of the CSRA this evening.
Warm advection on the flank of low pressure digging toward New England has ended the freezing rain threat; however, the associated cold front passage across the Upr OH will drop temperature once again tonight.
Adjusted POPs tonight to add scattered rain/snow showers this eve as a vorticity maximum crosses the Upper OH Valley region ahead of an approaching upper trough. Warm advection on the flank of low pressure digging toward New England has ended the freezing rain threat; however, the associated cold front passage across the Upr OH will drop temperature once again tonight.
Not a ton of moisture is evident with this system and it's getting no help from the Gulf as a cold front remains draped across the southeast US. Things turn downright cold going into Wednesday night as Canadian high pressure slides southward into the region.
Temperatures are in the mid 70s and dew points in the low 70s across the island communities.
another round of light to moderate snow enters the southwest portion of the forecast area by late this morning with a movement to the northeast across the remainder of the area by mid to late afternoon as another negatively tilted upper low and its associated trough move through. a broad upper ridge axis moves over the area. High temperatures are currently expected to range from the low 20s across the McCook, Norton and Hill City areas to the mid 30s across parts of far eastern Colorado.
A dry low level airmass, and a relative lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone region will make impactful snow hard to come by, with perhaps up to a quarter inch or so in a few spots, especially in the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas.
/10/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A cold front will continue to make its way southeast through the forecast area this morning, before stall south of the CWA later today. With convection coming to a quick end in its wake, drier air will steadily filter south into the CWA as weak high pressure builds into the region.
210 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Some brief upper level ridging will move across the region this evening. The subsidence from this and the area of low pressure in the low levels building in from the northwest will allow for at least some partial clearing across mainly the northern sections early tonight. The clouds will spread back in late tonight as another short wave trough moves by to the south of the area. In the wake of today's departing storm system, an area of high pressure is expected to build in over the region and help to clear out the clouds for Wednesday night. The upper level flow will turn to the southwest allowing a short wave trough to eject out of the West Texas region and advance northeast across the Mid- Mississippi River Valley.
131 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 High pressure will build southward from Canada during the mid- week. At most we'll have an inch in the fcst, generally over the higher elevs of the Laurels late tonight/Wed am. Gradient will be tight enough thru the night and Wed to keep 10-20mph with gusts into the m-u 20s in the higher elevs and 8-15mph elsewhere as we veer to the NNW. Expect morning mins in the lower teens N and 15-22F elsewhere on Thurs and maxes won't be much higher than that - only getting into the upper teens N and l30s far S.
High pressure will move across the area today and wind directions may vary a bit through the afternoon and evening, but speeds will be less than 10kts. A cold front will move through the region overnight bringing strong, gusty northwesterly winds. Surface ridging across the area today will keep the area fairly quiet with winds shifting from northerly to east southeasterly this evening. This second shot of cooler air will bring temperatures back closer to normal.
Thereafter, colder and drier conditions will set up for the rest of the week as arctic high pressure shifts southeast across Ontario.
1132 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will stall across the Big Country today but will have little effect, other then slightly cooler temperatures from yesterday, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
At the same time, a shallow cold front now dropping southeast through southern MO and IL will arrive this evening, preceded by a prefrontal trough that has already shifted winds to the northwest at KMSL. upper low ejects as an open wave into the southern Plains. Then, the upper wave continues to press east from the southern Plains into the lower OH and TN valleys.
1057 AM MST Tue Jan 26 2021 The closed low pressure is currently located over northwest Arizona and will continue to push eastward through out the day. The precipitation coverage should increase again later this morning as the low moves over the Four Corners, which is where the large-scale lift will be maximized. Midlevel flow will transition from southwest to the west this afternoon as the low pressure crosses the Divide allowing some of the northwest facing slopes to become favored. Strong inversions will develop over the higher valleys so fog and or low stratus could form as well. Tomorrow the southwest flow increases as the next trough makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday, flow aloft turns southwesterly as a deep trough briefly stalls along the Pacific Northwest coast.
Weak wave passing through this morning allowing light snow and perhaps brief intermittent light freezing drizzle as well. Warmer southeast winds late today and overnight should allow for some improvement.
Off to the south towards I-94, with the DGZ going in and out of saturation periodic light snow and some light freezing drizzle. One item to watch is whether we will see some freezing drizzle along and south of I94 as the DGZ tries to dry out today.
Once the snow exits around midnight, decent cold air advection sets up and temps will drop quickly, with Thu morning lows in the lower/mid 20s.
This will serve to sweep the low level moisture and stratus out overnight.
Another area of light snow may develop with the approach of the upper low near the I-40 corridor but moisture is a bigger concern here. Some additional, very light snowfall will be possible near/just before sunrise as the upper trough axis swings across OK but generally it appears a bit too dry in the mid levels for any substantial QPF.
238 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A cold front is expected to become stationary over the central GA area tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1013 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 Current forecast is on track with skies gradually lifting and clearing through the rest of the morning, and highs warming into the lower 80s this afternoon. A cold front will then move through the area later Wednesday/Wednesday night with a few showers possible with the front, and then winds and seas increasing behind the front as winds turn to the NW.
Morning satellite and H5 analysis indicate the upper low that's been impacting primarily southern portions of the area has filled significantly over the last 12 hours, with center of circulation opening and shifting east over the 4-corners region. Accumulations up to an inch remain likely through early this afternoon, at which point the axis is anticipated to stretch and further weaken as the parent trough exits to the east. While this significant atmospheric river will be largely diminished by the Sierra Nevada mountain range, deep southwesterly flow will be in place across Utah ahead of the main trough.
The remaining TAF sites will likely continue to experience MVFR conditions through the remainder of the afternoon as cold air advection continues in the wake of the cold front that passes this morning.
This occurs for two reasons, one it is a downsloping flow off the higher ground of Northern Lower Michigan and two it is just a greater distance from the water of the Great Lakes for lake cloud production.
Arctic high pressure is currently centered over east- central Saskatchewan into Manitoba, where temperatures this morning were as low as 40 below zero. Cloud cover will continue to impact the temperature forecast, however, with a gradient of warmer temperatures in the western portion of the CWA.
This trough will serve to kick both boundaries out of our region and aid in ushering in only a slightly cooler but definitely drier airmass. As for temperatures, the current mild conditions will give way to overnight lows in the low 40s over the northwest and in the mid 50s over the southeast CWA. Highs will range from the low 50s in the northwest to the upper 60s in the southeast.
A cold front will move through South Central Texas tonight from the northwest to the southeast. While these winds will bring cooler air, they will keep the boundary layer well mixed. Low temperatures will be about the same as Tuesday with some places in the Hill Country actually a little warmer.
The models QPF form the HRRR and 12NAM were not large amounts, however with snow ratios ramping up into the high teens for the afternoon and evening, the risk for snowfall amounts is probably to the higher end of the inch and a half average in the official forecast. The initial lift and snows are now being seen on radar through the highway 83 corridor as of 2 pm, and will continue to increase in coverage over about the next 4 to 6 hours. The low temperature pattern spatially would even support temperatures below zero in the ark river Valley west of Garden City, and MOS generally showing colder temperatures than models like the NAM/WRF.
This develops as a progressive open longwave trough tracks to our south from CO to MO and induces subtle warm air advection. Overnight and into Wednesday morning, Arctic high pressure will dig into MN, dropping temperatures into the single digits and wind chill values below zero across the region. On Wednesday night, strong Arctic high pressure builds east and cloud cover wanes. As high pressure digs into IA, overnight temperatures will plummet once again with the coldest air in northwest IA with lows near or below zero.
That being said, still went on the lower side of guidance for tonight's low temperatures (blended in a fair bit of the NBM 25th percentile).
Upper trof was over the Four Corners region early this afternoon with snow already spreading from Colorado into southwest Kansas. A strong upper jet with favorable lift will accompany the trof as it moves across the central/southern Plains tonight. Lift residing within a good portion of the dendritic snow growth zone should support snowfall ranging from around 2 inches (locally 3) along the I-70 corridor to around one inch as far south as the highway 54 corridor, with a trace to half inch near the Oklahoma border. Gradual clearing is expected behind the departing upper trof on Wednesday though still cold with high temperatures well below seasonal climo.