Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today will see the steady increase in temperatures observed over the last few days continue with highs in the low to mid 90s. As the upper high continues to fold over the CWA, to the west a nearly stationary mid level trough develops in response.
Farther to the north, upper troughing digs south through the eastern U.
350 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Prominent upper ridging over the Central U. Slightly warmer today as heights build aloft with the ridge axis overhead. Afternoon temperatures will rise to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees along and east of the I-29 corridor and into the lower to mid 90s further west across eastern and central SD.
337 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 All is quiet across our Northwoods late this July 1st evening as high pressure and dry air continue to build into the Western Great Lakes region. We may see a few clouds slip over the ridge and into western areas but it shouldn't have much impact on low temperatures. Low lying areas and typically cooler locations will likely drop into the lower to middle 40s. The upper trough shifts off to our east with heights aloft on the rise from an approaching western upper level ridge.
A weak cold front will move into through the Big Country Friday morning and through the rest of West Central Texas Friday afternoon.
Some of the 00Z convective allowing models are more bullish on scattered convection developing during the early to mid afternoon across Central Texas, aided by a mid level disturbance dropping south around eastern periphery of the ridge as well as convective outflow boundaries.
So far the past several hours, most of the higher rainfall rates have not been what we saw yesterday, but it will not take much rain to aggravate flooding over our saturated areas of southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
1148 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 An upper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. The back edge of the deep moisture circulating around this low will rotate across Se Mi from the north in the 09Z to 12Z time frame. The upper level trough and associated cold pool helped produce an uncapped thermal profile for boundary layer parcels still in possession of low to mid 60s surface dewpoint. Conditions have since been drying rapidly from north to south as cooler and less humid northerly wind gains traction. The mid afternoon decreasing trend is now also being aided by subsidence moving in on the heels of the upper level trough axis. The cloud field gets a boost from Lake Huron and strong/deep cyclonic flow on the west flank of the upper level trough.
Slow moving upper trough axis extends from Quebec through S Lake Huron into the Ohio Valley. Sharp ridge axis sits over Manitoba into the Plains States. At the surface, high pressure is centered over N Wisconsin with a trough/warm front over W Ontario. High pressure/strong subsidence quickly cleared out skies overnight. This will set the stage for a pleasant end of the work week as the high shifts SE.
1220 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Summary: High pressure will shift over the region bringing hot and near record temperatures through the weekend.
A weak cold front approaching from the north moves slowly into the area during the period, bringing numerous showers and storms to the area on Friday.
341 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A welcomed cold front has moved south of the Interstate 40 corridor and is currently approaching Savannah, TN and Tunica, MS. Cooler conditions are expected for the next couple of days.
126 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 For the 02/06Z TAF update, a slow-moving cold front will gradually sag southward into our airspace, instigating convection for most of the period.
In the upper levels, an unseasonably strong trough will slowly pivot from the eastern Great Lakes through New England this weekend.
Thermal profiles will warm during this time as mid-level ridging spreads eastward across the region with 925 mb temps climbing from around 20C today into the 25C range for the weekend. Accordingly, highs generally in the low to mid 80s today will increase into the upper 80s to mid 90s for the weekend. With lessening influence from the deep upper trough to the east today and a relatively dry airmass, we won't have to contend with the isolated showers of the past few days.
This line of precipitation is associated with a cold front that is expected to move south through the state over the next 24 to 36 hours stalling somewhere across S GA/N FL by Sat afternoon. The fist one is a prefrontal trough/cold pool with mainly showers moving across N GA right now. The second push will be associated with the actual cold front as day time heating allows for some instability to build allowing for convective build up across the area. 01 Models remain consistent with rotating a deep longwave trough across the eastern states over the weekend.
1145 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 All is quiet across our Northwoods late this July 1st evening as high pressure and dry air continue to build into the Western Great Lakes region. We may see a few clouds slip over the ridge and into western areas but it shouldn't have much impact on low temperatures. Low lying areas and typically cooler locations will likely drop into the lower to middle 40s. The upper trough shifts off to our east with heights aloft on the rise from an approaching western upper level ridge.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will sag south into West Central Texas, dropping as far south as I-10 by sunset this evening and then stalling overnight.
With the high pressure in control, mostly clear skies and light east/south winds will continue throughout the day today and into tomorrow. Highs should be able to climb into the upper 80s both days, though afternoon dewpoints around the low 60s will keep things fairly comfortable. Low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
240 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trof across Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level high located near Lake Winnipeg. This low will slowly move east-northeast today. With marginal shear and high freezing level, minimal threat for severe hail.
This boundary will continue to sag southeastward throughout the day, ushering in clear skies and cooler temps for all. Today probably won't seem like July to most, as highs will only reach the low to mid 80s. High pressure will take a strong hold over the eastern half of the U.
GOES nighttime microphysics imagery depicted scattered mid-level clouds across central and east central Iowa, which has kept temperatures slightly warmer overnight over our western areas. High clouds also were observed streaming in from the north on eastern side of a large upper level ridge. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 80s, similar to yesterday but with lower dewpoints.
257 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Early this morning, high pressure was building into the area from the northwest. Central Indiana was on the west side of an upper trough. The lower clouds will continue to spread southwest across the area along the 925/850mb flow early this morning. During the late morning to afternoon hours, some scattered cumulus will develop with cooler air moving in aloft. With the high nearby, winds will be light.
219 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 An upper trough digging across the eastern states will drive a cold front through the area with widespread showers and scattered storms Friday through Friday night. Cloud cover will persist and overnight lows will not budge much, staying in the low 70s. This batch of precipitation along with widespread clouds will keep temperatures well below average through the day with highs in the low to mid-80s. With the best forcing and shear remaining north of the area, however, associated with the upper low in the Mid- Atlantic, the probability of severe weather remains low. As the cold front continues to shift farther south of the area, continue to see anomalously dry airmass shifting into the forecast area with NAEFS mean showing most of the area seeing PWATs drop below an inch, below the 10th percentile.
1107 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 A cold front will move across the state overnight. Low pressure at upper levels and its associated pool of cold air aloft will drift over Northern Pennsylvania or Southern New York on Friday, continuing the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms there, with drier weather for southern Pennsylvania. Low temps early Friday morning will be in the 55-60F range over the Northern and Western Mtns of PA, and mid to upper 60s throughout the Lower Susq Valley and adjacent locations. The small closed low center at 500 mb within an amplifying trough will drop SE from the Upper Glakes Region and become located over the Southwest corner of New York state at 12Z Friday.
1037 PM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Current radar and water vapor loops show storms developed over much of Wyoming, associated with an upper low sitting over the region. Given the low CAPE and lack of any shear in the region, chance for severe is low, though small hail and gusty winds up to 40mph may be possible with these storms.
Cooler and Drier Weather Expected Today and Tonight. Early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal that the cold front has pushed south of the state. Temperatures should fall off into the lower-mid 50s in most locations.
1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Continued quiet weather tonight into Friday as high pressure aloft and at the surface control the weather.
This activity continues to show a weakening trend as it spreads southeast however, additional convection is expected areawide the remainder of the night as a weak cold front drifts into the CWA from the northwest. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Friday: The forecast for active weather over the ArkLaMiss region in the next 24+ hours is still on track as seasonably strong cyclonic vorticity advection associated with an impressive mid/upper level trough crosses the forecast area. The current summer airmass is supporting disorganized diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but storms north of the area are more in association with the upper trough, and there could be an increasing thunderstorm threat related to this along the Highway 82 corridor as we go into the evening hours.
An upper level trough that was over the area the past few days lifted to the northeast this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, winds will remain light from the southeast and south thanks to the deep layer ridging over the area. Residents and visitors in the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the latest forecasts closely and take advantage of the expected favorable weather Friday and into the weekend to review tropical cyclone preparedness plans.
The upper low currently over the eastern Great Lakes and accompanying upper trof will continue to deepen as it digs southeastward and progresses to the Atlantic Seaboard.
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Long wave troughing as promised continued to amplify along the eastern third of the CONUS, as an upper low situated east of Lake Huron develops.
Seasonally milder temperatures are expected with daytime highs generally in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. with the mid/upper trough centered near the Atlantic Coast. Based on these considerations, it is possible that some low-lying areas in the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia could drop to near or below 50 degrees.
1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 A cold front will move across the state overnight. Low pressure at upper levels and its associated pool of cold air aloft will drift over Northern Pennsylvania or Southern New York on Friday, continuing the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms there, with drier weather for southern Pennsylvania. Low temps early Friday morning will be in the 55-60F range over the Northern and Western Mtns of PA, and mid to upper 60s throughout the Lower Susq Valley and adjacent locations. The small closed low center at 500 mb within an amplifying trough will drop SE from the Upper Glakes Region and become located over the Southwest corner of New York state at 12Z Friday.
A cold front will continue sagging southward overnight and Friday. /Issued 229 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021/ /Friday Night Onward/ Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue near/along the cold front Friday night as it slowly moves southward into Central Texas. Convergence along this boundary, combined with a weakening mid-level ridge, will result in continued rain chances over the holiday weekend.
The back edge of the main precip band and the main upper trough axis are already across Middle TN, and this will be moving across our area between 06 and 12Z. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 63 84 62 89 / 40 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 59 83 60 87 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 83 59 87 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 54 80 55 85 / 20 0 0 0 0 TN.
A cold front will continue to push south and conditions will improve greatly later in the period.
227 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Agitated pattern continues across WY as the zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest runs headlong into the H5 ridge dropping southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains.
High pressure over the Four Corners begins to strengthen and build westward into SoCal. This building high pressure will result in a warming trend with dangerous heat returning to parts of CA. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Slow moving upper trough axis extends from Quebec through S Lake Huron into the Ohio Valley. Sharp ridge axis sits over Manitoba into the Plains States. At the surface, high pressure is centered over N Wisconsin with a trough/warm front over W Ontario. High pressure/strong subsidence quickly cleared out skies overnight. This will set the stage for a pleasant end of the work week as the high shifts SE. Saturday brings continued northerly upper level flow between ridging building into the upper Great Lakes and a cut- off low over New York. There is some forcing to be had over the region early Saturday, with a weak PV-anomaly dropping south through far eastern Ontario and a weak warm front sliding across the state. Highs should end up being in the low to mid 80s.
955 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Main cold front still settling southward and looks like it has made it down to just south of the TN/AL border. Locations downwind and near large bodies of water should be a tad warmer. High temperatures will only rise into the low/mid 80s, with northerly winds around 5-10 mph.
628 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will sag south into West Central Texas, dropping as far south as I-10 by sunset this evening and then stalling overnight.
521 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A well-defined upper low and its associated pool of anomalously cold air aloft will drift over Northern Pennsylvania today. This low will continue the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the northern half of the state today, while drier and mainly rain-free weather is expected over southern Pennsylvania. Scattered showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to drift southeast across the state on Saturday as the upper low moves toward the Southern New England Coast.
424 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Large upper high pressure system that sat over the area yesterday will retreat westward today putting the area in northwest flow aloft. In terms of temperatures we will see a slightly cooler day behind the frontal boundary with highs in the 80s area wide. By Saturday morning, upper level high pressure will be located near the Four Corners region. By Saturday night, convection may develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico and shift southeastward towards the forecast area however how far east these storms make it remains questionable.
RAH (Issued 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021) Today through Saturday: High pressure will contribute to dry conditions today. Northerly to northeasterly winds will keep us relatively comfortable with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the low 50s. Saturday, a ridge axis to our west will lean a bit closer to Wisconsin and winds will turn westerly following the passage of a weak trough. Full sunshine from the high pressure and the building ridge will allow our temperatures to climb during the day and dewpoints will increase throughout the day owing to moisture advection around the high pressure centered over Iowa and evapotranspiration.
The north may see the highest in the morning while the south will be during the afternoon.
Broad surface ridging will continue to spread across the Plains and Midwest region through today and slowly shift south and southeast through July Fourth.
With the atypical orientation of the ridge on Saturday, WAA and moisture transport will occur on gusty NW winds through the day. Temps will range from the low 80s south to near 90 along the WI state line. Kluber 339 AM CDT A ridge of high pressure, both and the surface and aloft, will move over the area late in the weekend. A very warm airmass accompanying this ridge will thus result in a very warm and increasingly humid day across the area for Independence Day. The threat for thunderstorms continues to look very low due to capping and little focus for forced ascent under the high pressure ridge.
As for Saturday a trough will move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening. CAPE values will be around 2500 J/kg, sfc dewpoints in the low 60s, and marginal 0 to 6 km shear around 20 to 25kts which will create a marginally favorable environment for a strong strong storm.
Dewpoints have risen into the 60's to near 70 in the lower valley with 50's moving up onto the Mogollon Rim.
This activity was spreading east to southeast toward Southeast Oklahoma around a mid level high pressure centered over West Texas.
High pressure over the Four Corners begins to strengthen and build westward into SoCal. This building high pressure will result in a warming trend with dangerous heat returning to parts of CA.
It would have been even cooler if not for some middle clouds and a light breeze. The upper ridge from Lake Winnipeg to the Northern Plains will move east tonight and Saturday with low level warm advection from the northwest. Usually northwest winds bring cooler air, but the air upstream in the Canadian prairies was very hot the last few days. Lows tonight may be warmest in the higher terrain of Northcentral Wisconsin.
/issued 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021/ A welcomed cold front has moved south of the Interstate 40 corridor and is currently approaching Savannah, TN and Tunica, MS. Cooler conditions are expected for the next couple of days.
There's still a highly anomalous 3-sigma ridge over central Canada, the one responsible for the record-breaking British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon heat wave. This ridge is in the process of deamplifying as moves east.
302 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure over the region will maintain hot temperatures today into the weekend with record highs possible. Moisture working around the ridge, along with weak energy moving in from the west will generate widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the area. STP This forecast period looks to be dominated by an upper ridge anchored over the southwestern US.
1036 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Cooler and drier air will filter into the region today and will settle into the region through Saturday.
626 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Prominent upper ridging over the Central U. Slightly warmer today as heights build aloft with the ridge axis overhead. Afternoon temperatures will rise to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees along and east of the I-29 corridor and into the lower to mid 90s further west across eastern and central SD.
Main synoptic drivers for the western half of North America continue to be the anomalously strong ridge over the Canadian Prairies (was previously responsible for the record-breaking heat over the Pacific Northwest several days ago), as well as the high over the Desert Southwest.
Large scale ridge with 591DM center is orientated across the Dakotas and over Manitoba and will continue to drift east into midday Saturday morning.
East Central Floridians Should Continue to Monitor the Latest Steering flow has flip-flopped since this time yesterday with winds generally WSW/SW throughout the column thanks to mid-level troughing across the eastern CONUS and low-level ridge axis across the Bahamas and south Florida. 1 inches, the highest chances (70%) favor the eastern side of the peninsula with convection initially developing on the west coast breeze by late morning and early afternoon, which will then steadily push eastward through the day.
524 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Agitated pattern continues across WY as the zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest runs headlong into the H5 ridge dropping southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains. Most convection will start along the higher elevations of all mountain ranges across the state, before drifting east during the day. Near-sfc air remains fairly dry, so precip falling to the sfc for the lower elevations looks less likely. At the start of the period, expect a building dome of high pressure to be centered over the Four Corners with Wyoming between that system and the overall zonal flow.
402 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 High pressure will expand out of the Southern Plains into the Intermountain West over the next 48 hours. It is no monsoon but moisture will continue to circulate clockwise around this low and keep some threat of afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast. caught between the northern periphery of the high to our South and departing low pressure to our North. The high will settle over the Great Basin on Saturday and turn the flow aloft more Northerly. The ridge aloft remain anchored near the 4 Corners through the weekend. with the warmest temperatures located on the northern periphery of the high.
526 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across the Upper Midwest with trof across Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level high located near Lake Winnipeg. This low will slowly move east-northeast today. With marginal shear and high freezing level, minimal threat for severe hail. Shear is a bit stronger ahead of surface trof, especially across northwest South Dakota.
The upper low currently over the eastern Great Lakes and accompanying upper trof will continue to deepen as it digs southeastward and progresses to the Atlantic Seaboard. Low level WAA attendant with the retreating low level ridge will boost high temps into the upper 80s-lower 90s.
A cold front is settling into the region today. The upper level trough associated with this boundary is digging in over the eastern half of the country. This will help keep much of area north of the Highway 84 corridor dry Saturday but lingering rain chances will be possible for areas along and south of there due to the previous mentioned front stalling across the most southern portions of the MS.
Cooler and Drier Weather Expected Today and Tonight. Early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal that the cold front has pushed south of the state. Temperatures should fall off into the lower-mid 50s in most locations. Overhead, a sharply amplified upper ridge will continue slowly working its way eastward towards the CWA.
637 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 For the 02/12Z TAF update, a slow-moving cold front will gradually sag southward into our airspace, instigating convection for most of the period. By tonight, the frontal boundary will have crossed further into our area, with winds out of the northeast beginning to advect much-welcomed dew points in the lower 60s. This pleasant reprieve from oppressive dew points in the mid-70s will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 70s south of the I-20 corridor, and the mid-60s across southwest Arkansas, well below average for this time of the year. The frontal boundary will linger south of our southernmost zones, where the highest chance of precipitation will remain near Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana.