Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1050 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022 A ridge of high pressure is currently moving over the region therefore temperatures are warming and winds are relatively light. Things begin to change tomorrow as the ridge slides eastward allowing the pressure gradient to tighten overhead. Winds will increase across the entire area as we mix into the higher winds aloft so gusts will generally be around 25 to 35 mph. Lows will be much more mild under the ridge. The longwave trough slides in over the Western States Saturday where models are in general agreement with it setting up camp for the coming week. This trough passage will increase the gradient winds through the afternoon with gusts 35 to 50 mph across much of the region.
Hot and Dry accompanied by patchy fog as high pressure expands over South Texas will be the main weather story for the short term period.
This trend is expected to continue through today with storms becoming more widespread, as upper level trough and associated front move across the Sunshine State.
We close out the weekend on a warm --highs in the upper 80s to low 90s -- and dry note thanks to continue upper level high pressure over the region.
This afternoon through Friday night An upper level ridge will be over the Cowboy State today. The ridge will track eastward tonight. Weak showers will be possible over western portions, as a cold front approaches. The associated weak cold front will move southward over areas east of the Divide through the afternoon. A deepening trough will continue to push into the area on Saturday. A cold front will swing from northwest to southeast in the morning, with showers becoming widespread across the area. High temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than on Friday.
This morning, a deep closed low aloft was present in the Midwest, with a secondary low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and ridging in between these two features that was centered over the Northern Rockies. Troughing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will begin digging south through the weekend, with southwest flow aloft across the forecast area.
though could be some small hail as freezing levels begin to drop w/ the falling heights. Temps today will reach the low/mid 80s in our east, but hold in the 70s over our west w/ plenty of cloud cover.
259 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Key Messages: - Near normal today with warmer than normal conditions for Memorial Day weekend. The closed upper low that has meandered its way across the region is now centered over southern IL and will continue to slowly track east. The low-level cloud cover associated with the upper low is splitting the forecast area from north to south as of 02Z with the clearing line from roughly western Harrison County to eastern Bates County. Upper-level ridging will build across the middle of the country to start the holiday weekend. Winds will increase from the south as high pressure settles into the Southeast and lee troughing develops in the High Plains. With increasing heights and thicknesses due to the upper ridge and the increasing south flow, temperatures as well as humidity will be on the increase.
(Today) Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a closed upper level low spinning to the north across southern Illinois. Dry air can be noted along the southern periphery of the upper level low. At the surface, the cold front is moving eastward across northeast Alabama and should exit to the east near daybreak. The upper level low will continue to slide eastward across the Ohio River Valley today. Upper level heights will be anomalously low for late May today as the closed low passes to the north. Due to this, temperatures will be on the cool side with highs only in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer Friday night (60s to low 70s) due to the return of the south flow over the area.
This will be a result of broad high pressure building in from the Plains along with steadily increasing heights. Clouds will linger longest in the east, with clouds likely hanging on until late afternoon, which may result in slightly cooler temperatures.
306 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Upper level flow continues to gradually weaken early this morning as deep stacked low pressure shifts eastward over the Ohio Valley. Weak northwesterly flow aloft is set to continue through tonight as an upper level ridge axis currently centered over New Mexico broadens slightly and shifts eastward to encompass more of West Texas by this afternoon. At the surface, light southeasterly flow early this morning will increase and become south-southwesterly by late morning as broad lee-side troughing deepens over eastern Colorado. These factors combined with clear skies and deep subsidence will boost high temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday. The continued breezes and a modest low level moisture surge will keep temperatures quite mild overnight, with most locations seeing lows about 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
Some lingering isolated/scattered roughly along a line from KIMT to KSAW as noted on radar seems like this could be aided by upper divergence in right entrance region of the 140+ kt upper jet max across James Bay into northern Quebec and ahead of the mid-upper level trough axis. Expect these lingering showers to generally dissipate by early evening with the loss of weak diurnal heating and increased sfc ridging from the west. Look for min temps mainly in the 40s with the highest readings south central.
430 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A trough of low pressure will slowly move across the area resulting in periods of showers and some thunderstorms through tonight.
(Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging builds over our area today and Saturday. Lower level thermal ridge strengthens with slightly warmer temperatures expected, however, record highs for today the 27th and Saturday the 28th appear safe.
240 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022 Current surface map places weak lee side trough over Montana/Wyoming with upper level ridge shifting into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge flattens today, allowing weak impulse to cross the area this afternoon/early evening. Best chance of thunderstorms will be along cold front late this afternoon/early evening with narrow axis of buoyancy. Upper trough carves out over the western CONUS this weekend with southwest to northeast low level baroclinic zone across the central Dakotas. Impulses eject from the trough resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms.
Upper level ridging building back across the Rockies and high plains with increasing confluence aloft.
1134 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Potent upper trough will continue moving well north and east of our airspace this TAF cycle, taking any and all cloud cover with it.
Despite the cold front crossing the area, the slow moving upper level low will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through late tonight. Shower chances decrease from west to east overnight as the upper level low moves east of the area. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday.
302 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Rain chances will increase through the day as a closed upper low moves across Central Indiana. Surface and upper level winds will shift to predominantly NW later today in response to the low. NW flow along with cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler through the day. Rain showers will come to an end this evening as the low exits the region. Cold air advection behind the low will help to clear out skies overnight and lead to more efficient cooling. Cooler and drier weather is expected as an upper ridge builds across the region.
159 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Cold front brings showers and storm chances through Friday.
Today, temperatures should return to the 80s across the entire area, and possibly even the low 90s in the west. The warming trend continues on Saturday, with continued ridging aloft and southerly winds at the low levels. Again, convection is expected to develop west of the area during the afternoon as a broad upper trough slowly pushes in from the west.
Frontal passage and upper low will result in the chance of scattered rain showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, today. Discussion: Surface cold front, currently observed near the Cumberland Plateau as of 07z, will move slowly eastward across the forecast area this morning with scattered rain showers along this boundary. With the upper low continuing to track north of our area across the Ohio Valley, steeper mid-level lapse rates for aiding convection this afternoon will be across northern portions of the CWA, generally north of Interstate 40. We should see some more breaks in the clouds today with drier air and high pressure arriving from the west.
The upper level low will lift through the Ohio River Valley today and tomorrow, with much drier mid level air rotating around the western side of the low, ending rain chances for Central Alabama. A cold front will push southward trough the area today, with winds becoming northwesterly. Cooler air advects southward, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s today. Mostly clear skies continue Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
An upper low with a decently tight pressure gradient continues to slowly move out of the area this afternoon. Winds are expected to begin to decrease late this afternoon/early evening as the low moves out. An upper ridge over the Four Corners region this evening will lift to the northeast through the day tomorrow with northwest flow in place over the Central Plains. An upper trough over the Western CONUS begins to deepen Saturday afternoon, and the ridge shifts slightly to the east, resulting in southwest flow over the Central Plains.
Despite the cold front crossing the area, the slow moving upper level low will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through late tonight. Shower chances decrease from west to east overnight as the upper level low moves east of the area. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday. Broad ridging, once across the South-Central CONUS, will now meander east, expanding across the Southeast and into the Ohio River Valley. From this point and onward, high pressure will remain in control, bringing plentiful sunshine and warming temperatures through mid week.
(Today) An upper level low, which has brought clouds, rain and well below average temps the past couple days, is moving away from the region. The last of the low cloud cover over NW AR will be clearing out soon.
1126 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 An upper low to the west will slide closer on Friday, pushing a cold front through the area. The upper low will be overhead on Saturday, generating more showers.
Deep northwest flow will bring a steady supply of low precipitable water air with values approaching a half an inch, and an anomalously cool low level thermal trough with H850 T as much as 5C below normal.
As upper low continues to trek off to the northeast will see ridging building into the Plains from the west today. Meanwhile, upper trough moves into the western CONUS with pressure falls across the High Plains helping to increase low level pressure gradient and a return to south winds.
A complex upper level pattern is forecast to evolve during the short term period as the northern stream closed low opens up and moves from the Midwest through the Northeast. In its wake some superpositioning of a southern stream wave and residual +PV from the departing low will deepen a new upper trough over the Southeast. The veering low-level flow and increasing deep layer moisture associated with the Midwest centered low and eastward shifting Atlantic ridge will yield a more favorable environment for convection today.
Showers are expected for much of the day as an occluded system associated with a slowly moving closed upper low over the midwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop over the second half of the afternoon as instability increases with daytime heating and the mentioned upper low begins to transition over the region. Scattered showers will continue tonight into Saturday morning as the upper low slowly transitions across the region The weather improves the second of half of Saturday as flow becomes anti-cyclonic.
An upper trof over the eastern states lifts well off to the northeast, though leaves a weak upper trof lingering over the extreme southeast states. An upper ridge otherwise begins to build over the eastern states in the wake of the upper trof. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to near 70 at the coast then trend a bit cooler by Friday night to range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s and highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s.
256 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of a cold front today.
Rain chances will increase through the day as a closed upper low moves across Central Indiana. Surface and upper level winds will shift to predominantly NW later today in response to the low. NW flow along with cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler through the day. Rain showers will come to an end this evening as the low exits the region. Cold air advection filtering in behind the low will help to clear out skies overnight and lead to more efficient cooling. Cooler and drier weather is expected as an upper ridge builds across the region.
254 AM PDT Fri May 27 2022 Gusty winds, cooler conditions, and areas of showers will prevail this weekend as a trough moves into the Great Basin.
1030 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A trough of low pressure will slowly move across the area resulting in periods of showers and some thunderstorms through tonight.
602 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Key Messages: - Near normal today with warmer than normal conditions for Memorial Day weekend. The closed upper low that has meandered its way across the region is now centered over southern IL and will continue to slowly track east. The low-level cloud cover associated with the upper low is splitting the forecast area from north to south as of 02Z with the clearing line from roughly western Harrison County to eastern Bates County. Upper-level ridging will build across the middle of the country to start the holiday weekend. Winds will increase from the south as high pressure settles into the Southeast and lee troughing develops in the High Plains. With increasing heights and thicknesses due to the upper ridge and the increasing south flow, temperatures as well as humidity will be on the increase.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Closed 500 mb low pressure centered roughly over the Illinois/Indiana border will steadily move just off the coast of New England during the period. This will allow 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over north-central Mexico to build more northeast and become increasingly more dominant over the BRO CWFA. Temperatures will prevail in the above normal territory courtesy of the mid-level ridge.
951 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Satellite observations show prefrontal moisture is beginning to move ashore the Nature Coast on the western side of the peninsula, as of around 9AM, ahead of the approaching weak frontal boundary, ushered closer to the area by a deep cut-off low passing eastward through the Midwest. The highest chances will be north and west of I-4, tapering to around 40-50% along and inland from the Treasure Coast. Hot this afternoon, as southerly winds begin to transition to southwesterly, with highs rising into the lower 90s.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the lower Ohio River valley. This feature brought cooler temperatures and rain to the Midsouth over the past few days, as it lifted from the southern plains across the Missouri Ozarks. By Saturday morning, the upper low will into PA/southern NY. In the interim, scattered to broken clouds will wrap around the southwest periphery of the upper low across the Midsouth today.
Upper low was moving east across east central Indiana, clearly visible in the main satellite trends. Rain chances will increase through the day as a closed upper low moves across Central Indiana. Surface and upper level winds will shift to predominantly NW later today in response to the low. NW flow along with cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler through the day. Rain showers will come to an end this evening as the low exits the region. Cold air advection filtering in behind the low will help to clear out skies overnight and lead to more efficient cooling. Cooler and drier weather is expected as an upper ridge builds across the region.
A major pattern changes shifts us from the hot and dry weather from the past handful of days, to a much cooler and wet pattern into the weekend. With a shift into an upper trough, an active pattern will begin today, and last through the weekend. Rain from the first round is reaching the coast just north of the forecast area at this time, and should spread across the east side this afternoon as a weak warm front moves through the region.
1042 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A ridge across the western North Atlantic is sliding eastward in response to a potent upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes region this morning. At the surface a high pressure cell across the western Atlantic is shifting east. A pre-frontal trough lies across the FL Panhandle and sags southwest across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, winds are gradually decreasing with mostly sunny skies and current temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
Light winds early today, but will be on the increase with high pressure departing, and low pressure deepening to the west. Storms will move rapidly eastwards as they ride atop this weak upper ridge thanks to 40-50kts of westerly mid level steering flow, weakening as they migrate into an area of lower MUCAPE despite the presence of a 40-50kt south/southwest oriented low level jet which will also feature a sharp convergent nose over the CWA. Saturday for the most part should be dry, with slight ridging aloft. West of the area, a deepening western CONUS trough generates a southwest flow regime.
A trough of low pressure digging over the western states will bring gusty winds during the holiday weekend along with high fire danger.
701 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of a cold front today.
736 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 An open, low-amplitude trough in the mid-level is centered over the Upper Great Lakes this morning on the backside of the low pressure that moved through over the last two days. An area of subsidence behind the eastward moving trough can be seen on infrared satellite imagery this morning and is creating clearing skies over the far western Lake Superior and northwestern WI. P at a 70% chance or higher of temperatures above 90F, records are generally in the low 90s).
Critical Fire Weather Conditions are expected Today and again West to southwest flow aloft setting up shop today with strengthening surface winds as upper level ridging shifts east of the Divide. Peak wind gusts over the next 36 hours or so will be in the 30 to 45 mph range with stronger gusts along the higher ridges and in the vicinity of virga showers. Strong cold front will be digging southeast across the Great Basin as a longwave trough becomes established over the northern and central Rockies.
951 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 A few light showers are hanging around Middle Tennessee this morning as the upper low that brought us storms over the past couple of days pulls northeast. Cloud cover will remain for much of the day today keeping temperatures in the low 70s area wide. There will be a few showers and maybe a storm or two that will develop later today, mainly north of I-40, as the upper low passes by to our immediate north.
By this afternoon the axis of the broad upper ridge over the Rockies will move through the region and push off to our east.
The Memorial Day weekend will kick off slightly warmer and humid compared to previous days. The aforementioned weak sfc boundary will hang over the region tonight resulting in slightly warmer/humid conditions overnight. Low-level moisture will gradually increase; however, precipitation is not anticipated as strong subsidence persists due to the ridge aloft.
High pressure will be building into the forecast area today.
623 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Today) An upper level low, which has brought clouds, rain and well below average temps the past couple days, is moving away from the region. The last of the low cloud cover over NW AR will be clearing out soon.
/issued 306 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ Upper level flow continues to gradually weaken early this morning as deep stacked low pressure shifts eastward over the Ohio Valley. Weak northwesterly flow aloft is set to continue through tonight as an upper level ridge axis currently centered over New Mexico broadens slightly and shifts eastward to encompass more of West Texas by this afternoon. At the surface, light southeasterly flow early this morning will increase and become south-southwesterly by late morning as broad lee-side troughing deepens over eastern Colorado. These factors combined with clear skies and deep subsidence will boost high temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday. The continued breezes and a modest low level moisture surge will keep temperatures quite mild overnight, with most locations seeing lows about 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
909 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Upper low spinning over the Ohio River valley this morning with trough into the Gulf with series of vort maxes wrapping through the base into the E Gulf. These dynamics are producing a broken band of convection this morning moving ashore the Big Bend and n Nature Coast well ahead of the associated weak cold front. This trend is expected to continue through today with storms becoming more widespread, as upper level trough and associated front move across the Sunshine State.
1004 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of a cold front today.
607 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Today and tonight) The gradual warming trend continues today, with 850 mb temperatures set to climb a little more as the upper level ridge takes hols.
High pressure is building into the region for the weekend. These are associated with the back-side of the exiting low pressure system and upper-level trough. Just enough between the clouds and west-northwest flow to keep us cooler today, with highs in the mid-70s.
Currently, the upper low is over southern IL. Showers and clouds rotating around this low will keep low precipitation chance over southern IN and central KY during the day. Winds on the back side of the low will continue veering to the northwest, which will advect cooler air into the CWA. ==================================== Synoptic Overview ==================================== Upper trough axis is forecast to be to the east of the Ohio Valley region by the start of the forecast period. Through the upcoming holiday weekend, mid-level heights will rise across the Ohio Valley as the upper level pattern takes on a trough west, ridge east pattern.
605 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Today) Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a closed upper level low spinning to the north across southern Illinois. Dry air can be noted along the southern periphery of the upper level low. At the surface, the cold front is moving eastward across northeast Alabama and should exit to the east near daybreak. The upper level low will continue to slide eastward across the Ohio River Valley today. Upper level heights will be anomalously low for late May today as the closed low passes to the north. Due to this, temperatures will be on the cool side with highs only in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
High temperatures will range from the low to upper 80s with lows in the 40s/50s. More active conditions are expected tomorrow as a trough slowly moves in to the region.
649 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A trough of low pressure will slowly move across the area resulting in periods of showers and some thunderstorms through tonight.