Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A short wave trough continues to make its way through NorCal this afternoon. Short wave ridging builds in overnight with dry conditions. We will see another short wave trough track over the region tomorrow. Quieter weather settles in for the rest of the week as an upper level low develop off the coast of the Bay Area.
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Hot and dry weather lingers as the upper level ridge continues to migrate slowly eastward across the region. Two high pressure systems situated over the SE and SW United States greatly affect the trajectory of Laura as it moves toward the Gulf Coast. The highest chance for any hydrological impacts on the EAX CWA from Laura are fairly minor and concentrated to the southern most counties. The upper level ridge begins to level out as Laura departs MO.
727 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will remain over the area through the week keeping a very moist air mass over the region. High pressure aloft will build into the Southeast U. from the Western Atlantic Ocean during the second half of the week which will lead to higher H5 heights and warmer temperatures.
Otherwise the stationary front over sw WI will gradually shift newd as a warm front moving through east central WI Wed AM around 12-15Z Wed. This is all in response to low pressure moving from the ern Dakotas to far nrn WI and Upper MI for Wed.
A short wave trough will move quickly late tonight into the overnight hours, but most shower and thunderstorm activity will remain south of the region.
649 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An area of low pressure is deepening to our west while high pressure slowly moves off to the east. Upper level ridging may help to quell the intensity of anything that does develop, but an embedded short wave may cause some isolated potential for severe storms as CAPE and shear both become more favorable overnight.
Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure in place over northwest SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending across far northern WY and northern SD. A cold front is located further northwest near the MT/Canadian border. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge from the desert southwest to the northern and central plains. Today will be the warmest day of the week, with a gradual cooling trend mid to late week as the persistent ridge over the region finally weakens and allows some cooler air to build in from the north.
619 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 A strong high pressure ridge is currently set up over the Four Corners area which stretches into the Central Plains today.
721 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 The potential for thunderstorms along the weak boundary/warm front stretching across central Minnesota continues to be the focus during the short term period. On Wednesday, however, mid-level temps cool as the ridge flattens.
537 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure in place over northwest SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending across far northern WY and northern SD. A cold front is located further northwest near the MT/Canadian border. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge from the desert southwest to the northern and central plains. Today will be the warmest day of the week, with a gradual cooling trend mid to late week as the persistent ridge over the region finally weakens and allows some cooler air to build in from the north.
615 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Upper level high pressure remains anchored across the four corners region. 26/12z NAM does hint at an isolated thunderstorm or two up in SD late this afternoon and this evening near the trough. The winds aloft are a bit stronger in that area with mid-level temperatures a tad cooler. This will force a cold front southward into western and north central Nebraska. It will be a few degrees cooler in the lower 90s behind the front across northern and northwest NE.
Smoke layer will continue to blanket the Central California Interior for several more days as the blocking high pattern still dominates the region. While the blocking high pattern will maintain a slow progression to improving conditions, weak disturbances moving around the high will introduce some mixing of the air to promote possible clearing. Furthermore, moisture from Genevieve is now pushing out of Central California as a surge of dry air moves in along with warmer temperatures. Models have been very consistent in their progging a series of weak disturbance that will rotate around the blocking high pattern.
A passing upper trough will bring another shot of mountain storms in the same areas Wednesday afternoon. This trough though may be enough of a trigger to help force upward motion and give a better opportunity for an isolated storm over two in Trinity or far northeastern Mendocino counties. As for temperatures, coastal areas will remain cool with stratus each morning at least for the next few days while interior areas gradually warm up as ridging builds over the west behind the departing trough.
Multiple 12Z global models and CAMs depicted some isltd/sctd redevelopment around 09Z along a weak convergence axis, possibly an inverted trough. Afternoon highs both Wed/Thu should trend a few degrees higher than today, as high pressure at the sfc becomes reinforced across the mid/srn Atlantic states. Overnight lows into Thu night look to trend mainly in the lower/perhaps mid 70s.
725 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 A cooler night with areas of fog developing toward morning. Temperatures will be close to 10 degrees cooler than this morning. A stronger cold front/trough passage is indicated for the weekend to continue the rain chance.
It's a tale of two weather worlds across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with hot and dry conditions prevalent across the northwestern half of the forecast area and numerous showers and thunderstorms with much cooler temperatures over the southeast half. Highs will likely be slightly cooler than today due to the more widespread clouds and precip, with most locations remaining in the 80s.
Strong winds will be the main concern with these storms as the freezing level is quite high.
1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will remain over the area through the week keeping a very moist air mass over the region. High pressure aloft will build into the Southeast U. from the Western Atlantic Ocean during the second half of the week which will lead to higher H5 heights and warmer temperatures.
A trough remains off the coast of California today, maintaining flow generally out of the south and allowing a rather deep marine layer to be present. By late week the offshore trough will weaken significantly. This will leave the door open for high pressure to ridge over the region. This ridge will not be as strong as previous ridges, but will bring a warming and drying trend to the region.
725 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 A strong upper level ridge centered over the western Atlantic will extend over the Southeast states through the week.
204 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 A cooler night with areas of fog developing toward morning. On Thursday, a surface weak cold front will slowly inch southward with the severe possibility ties to its forcing pushing south. This, thus owing any deep convection to the arrival of the cold front. A stronger cold front/trough passage is indicated for the weekend to continue the rain chance.
1043 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Hot and dry weather lingers as the upper level ridge continues to migrate slowly eastward across the region. Two high pressure systems situated over the SE and SW United States greatly affect the trajectory of Laura as it moves toward the Gulf Coast. The highest chance for any hydrological impacts on the EAX CWA from Laura are fairly minor and concentrated to the southern most counties. The upper level ridge begins to level out as Laura departs MO.
Dry, stable weather expected for the rest of the short term as transient ridging moves overhead. Also, expect typical diurnal breeziness through the Cascade gaps out into the lower Columbia Basin.
231 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 A broad upper level ridge will continue across the southwestern US with a ridge axis extending northeast across the central Plains through Wednesday night.
The increased moisture late Wednesday night into Thursday morning could bring some late night into morning stratus and slightly cooler temps for mainly southeastern locations Thursday, though afternoon apparent temps change little there.
307 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 An area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide across the region today, bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front should progress through the CWA late this afternoon through tonight with a more stable environment expected. Additional convection appears more likely during the mid to late afternoon hours over the higher terrain areas of western South Dakota.
854 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Hot and dry conditions will prevail as the high pressure centered over the four corners begins to move south into Arizona.
A strong high pressure ridge is currently set up over the Four Corners area which stretches into the Central Plains today. By Thursday afternoon, the ridge is progged to weaken some and retrograde to the north and west.
1247 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 A strong upper level ridge centered over the western Atlantic will extend over the Southeast states through the week.
Strong subsidence, both from the continued ridging aloft, and from subsident contributions from Laura, will make clouds very hard to come by through Thursday.
322 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Strong early morning storms - Risk for severe weather and heavy rain Thu into Fri Night - Cool down for the weekend - Strong early morning storms Elevated early morning storms were developing north of a warm front from near Ludington southeast to near Lansing. The warm front lifts steadily northeast through the morning so the main action over the next few hours will be for the area to the northeast of a Ludington to Lansing.
1121 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 The potential for thunderstorms along the weak boundary/warm front stretching across central Minnesota continues to be the focus during the short term period. On Wednesday, however, mid-level temps cool as the ridge flattens.
The weak inverted upper trough will remain over our area today.
1250 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 A cooler night with areas of fog developing toward morning. On Thursday, a surface weak cold front will slowly inch southward with the severe possibility ties to its forcing pushing south. This, thus owing any deep convection to the arrival of the cold front. A stronger cold front/trough passage is indicated for the weekend to continue the rain chance.
213 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Upper flow over the northern plains is becoming more zonal as weak energy flattens the ridge. At the surface, low pressure is centered over SD, and a couple of boundaries are draped across the CWA.
The upper level ridge continues across the area tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday through Thursday the upper level ridge continues to broaden across the central part of the CONUS. First, with the more zonal flow of a broad ridge, there are a few upper level waves that move through the ridge.
Wednesday will likely be dry with gusty southwest flow across the area south of the warm front. Given forecast 925 mb temps in the 28-30C range, would not be surprised to see some of the warmer locales make a run at the upper 90s, with hazy sunshine expected due to smoke from western US wildfires. As a result, cooler temps in the 70s are expected over north-central WI on Thursday with 80s to 90s south.
Large area of upper level high pressure arcs from the Bahamas to the central CONUS thence out toward Baja California. A weakness in the high is set up along an axis from the Big Bend to Oklahoma. Given the subsidence expected from the cyclone, nudged highs up a couple of degrees.
Along and north of the front: Winds will shift to more northerly, and temperatures should remain in the lower 90s. Upslope flow across the higher terrain to the west will lead to some lower end precipitation chances this afternoon and evening. Cannot completely rule out a strong storm amid marginal deep layer shear (25-30kts) though any sustained convection will be battling increasing inhibition with eastward extend from the higher terrain.
205 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will remain over the area through the week keeping a very moist air mass over the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. High pressure aloft will build into the Southeast U.
The west Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward over the Southeast today both at the surface and aloft, leading shower and thunderstorm coverage to be of the isolated to scattered variety today with the slightly higher coverage in far north Georgia. Fortunately for the local area, the impacts of Laura will remain well to the west as the ridge will remain situated across the area through Thursday. Temperatures will respond to the building ridge and begin a warming trend today into Thursday.
137 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Atlantic high pressure will expand across the region and prevail through late week, before a cold front approaches this weekend. Deep layered high pressure will extend across the area through late week.
Sfc cold front dropping southward across my southern tier counties late this evening. Amplification of the upper ridge and advection of thermal ridge across PA on Thursday will bring well normal temperatures and a jump in dewpoints/PW on Thursday. South of the front will be quite hot and humid with highs well into the 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
1007 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 An area of low pressure is deepening to our west while high pressure slowly moves off to the east. Upper level ridging may help to quell the intensity of anything that does develop, but an embedded short wave may cause some isolated potential for severe storms as CAPE and shear both become more favorable overnight.
Temperatures drop over the weekend IF a cold front makes it in, as hoped. They are providing a lifting initiation mechanism for "unexpected" convection, and a surface theta e ridge is providing fuel.
Surface analysis reveals weak, broad high pressure sprawled across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A weak system embedded within broad upper level ridging centered near Bermuda will slowly lift north toward us today.
404 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Under partly cloudy skies and east to southeast winds near 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Island Chain. For the end of this forecast cycle, much drier air will seep into our region thanks to a deep western Atlantic high pressure cell extending across the Southeast United States slowly dropping equatorward into the Sunshine State.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 91 74 88 / 40 10 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 89 72 89 / 20 10 30 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 89 71 90 73 88 / 20 10 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 87 67 87 / 20 10 30 20 40.
319 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Currently across the country, mid/upper ridging continues across the central CONUS with subsidence and dry air in place.
Drier and warmer air will move into Utah and southwest Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday.
1103 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Cold front passes the area tonight with a much cooler and drier airmass moving into the region for Wednesday. Showers could return to southern New Hampshire by Thursday as a warm front pushes north.
348 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 The summer heat will begin to intensify over the next several days as upper ridging to the west closes in on our forecast area. Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs mostly reaching the mid to upper 90s.
446 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Hurricane Laura in the central Gulf will continue to lift to the NW as high pressure builds over the state. East to southeast winds will remain in place across the area through Thursday, then the ridge axis to our north will start to shift south of the area as a trough gradually settles into northern Florida.
1243 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 An area of low pressure is deepening to our west while high pressure slowly moves off to the east. Upper level ridging may help to quell the intensity of anything that does develop, but an embedded short wave may cause some isolated potential for severe storms as CAPE and shear both become more favorable overnight.
Drier airmass aloft will support lower rainfall chances today, while humid southeast flow around the high pressure ridge axis just north of the region will combine with warmer temps to produce Peak Heat Indices/Feels Like temps in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Max Temps will top out in the lower/middle 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90 degrees along the coast. The ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic coastline will slowly shift south through Thursday night, with onshore east- southeasterly flow gradually becoming more south-southeasterly. Although flow is on-shore and we'll remain very warm under dominant high pressure, available moisture for storms will be lacking, especially on Wednesday. Highs will be in the low-mid 90s and lows will be mostly in the mid 70s.
1116 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Upper level high pressure remains anchored across the four corners region. 26/12z NAM does hint at an isolated thunderstorm or two up in SD late this afternoon and this evening near the trough. The winds aloft are a bit stronger in that area with mid-level temperatures a tad cooler. This will force a cold front southward into western and north central Nebraska. It will be a few degrees cooler in the lower 90s behind the front across northern and northwest NE. Upper level ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend. This allows for a major pattern shift to begin and cooler weather in store.
Current surface analysis places modest cold front sliding through north central into southwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places flattening ridge over the upper midwest into the northern plains. On the east side of the front in the higher moisture, some areas of fog have developed, particularly in the James River Valley.
Renewed convective development is expected today over the higher terrain by noon. Still, some afternoon thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain along the Divide will be able to produce briefly gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Isolated convection develops shortly after midday west of the I-25 corridor and increases in coverage moving into the high plains mid to late afternoon.
A broad upper level ridge will continue across the southwestern US with a ridge axis extending northeast across the central Plains through Wednesday night.
An upper wave pushing through the ridge will trigger some thunderstorms along the frontal boundary/dry line in eastern Montana from tonight through Thursday.
417 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Current surface analysis places modest cold front sliding through north central into southwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places flattening ridge over the upper midwest into the northern plains. On the east side of the front in the higher moisture, some areas of fog have developed, particularly in the James River Valley.
520 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Upper flow over the northern plains is becoming more zonal as weak energy flattens the ridge. At the surface, low pressure is centered over SD, and a couple of boundaries are draped across the CWA.
/issued 446 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020/ Hurricane Laura in the central Gulf will continue to lift to the NW as high pressure builds over the state. East to southeast winds will remain in place across the area through Thursday, then the ridge axis to our north will start to shift south of the area as a trough gradually settles into northern Florida.
633 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Currently across the country, mid/upper ridging continues across the central CONUS with subsidence and dry air in place.
A passing upper trough will bring another slight chance of mountain storms in areas of Trinity county this afternoon, particularly over the Trinity horn. As for temperatures, coastal areas will remain cool and moderated with stratus while interior areas gradually warm up as ridging builds over the west coast behind the departing trough.
Current temperatures are a little cooler across most of the region compared to 24 hours ago, while RH's continue to rise in the Delta Breeze influenced areas and are little changed elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) Looking at the 08Z water vapor imagery, it appears that the center of the mid/upper inverted trough is lifting north and is centered near the Red River.
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide across the region today, bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front should progress through the CWA late this afternoon through tonight with a more stable environment expected. Additional convection appears more likely during the mid to late afternoon hours over the higher terrain areas of western South Dakota.
On Thursday, a surface weak cold front will slowly inch southward with the severe possibility ties to its forcing pushing south. This, thus owing any deep convection to the arrival of the cold front.
Deep easterly flow continuing today thanks to the weak low level ridge axis north of the local area, with this morning's 10Z XMR sounding indicating a PWAT of 1. Deep onshore flow persisting, as the weak low level ridge axis remains north of the local area.
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place over the north-central Florida peninsula through Thursday as Hurricane Laura now over the central Gulf of Mexico moves northwest toward the Upper Texas and southwest LA coasts. The moderate east southeast wind flow should again preclude sea breeze development which will again allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 90s during the afternoon.
/issued 348 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020/ The summer heat will begin to intensify over the next several days as upper ridging to the west closes in on our forecast area. Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs mostly reaching the mid to upper 90s.
In addition, light winds will remain over the lower elevations so that the low-level moisture from last weekend is lingering. One possible ripple in the pattern for later this week is an upper-level low moving over Northern CA with a trough digging southward into the northern portions of our forecast area by Thursday, per some of the high resolution guidance.
1020 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Currently - Surface through lower level ridging extends westward into the southeastern United States. A subtle lower level trough is riding westward across the Bahamas and beginning to spread into the Keys area. This TUTT cell likely supported the development of the lower level trough. Short Term Update - The subtle lower level trough will continue to work its way westward into our area through the afternoon. Ridging will remain across the southeastern United States and Florida resulting in gentle to moderate east southeast breezes on Keys waters.
A strong ridge of high pressure remains over the desert southwest through the central plains.
This along with slightly cooler temperatures aloft should keep the area from largely reaching heat advisory conditions. Trough across central South Dakota is expected to slowly sag southeast through the day. Shear is mainly unidirectional, but speed shear leads to potentially 25-30 knots of bulk shear along the highway 14 corridor.
727 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Aviation - Strong early morning storms - Risk for severe weather and heavy rain Thu into Fri Night - Cool down for the weekend - Strong early morning storms Elevated early morning storms were developing north of a warm front from near Ludington southeast to near Lansing. The warm front lifts steadily northeast through the morning so the main action over the next few hours will be for the area to the northeast of a Ludington to Lansing.
The persistent high over the 4-corners area and ridge that extends over the Rockies and High Plains begins to flatten as a series of short wave troughs move into the western U.