Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RAP 250mb analysis shows axis of upper level trough nearby early this morning and short range models depict it to our east by afternoon. Expect a lower coverage of tsra this afternoon, with the highest likely being along the coast where a sea breeze forms but does not move very far inland. The greatest moisture will be in the south, so KVRB-KSUA would have the highest chances. Frontal trough to our north will produce a mainly westerly wind flow, but weakening enough for a sea breeze circulation to affect the coastal waters winds this afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 57 79 56 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 55 75 54 / 40 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 56 76 53 / 40 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 53 71 50 / 60 40 30 20.
Current surface map places trof of low pressure across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For Sunday, surface trof moves into central South Dakota.
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the area through the first of the week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend. The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough sunshine across at least our western areas to help push temperatures into the lower 70s.
Satellite imagery is indicating some subtle lift associated with mid level WAA on the eastern fringe of the ridge axis across SW KS. This area of lift will continue to shift eastward through the morning, with low chance PoPs developing over northern OK near or just after sunrise within mid level thetae ridge extending through Ponca City around 15Z. For tomorrow afternoon and evening, height falls will increase over the dryline as a mid to upper trough traverses the Rockies.
(Issued 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016) On a larger scale, another Omega-type blocking situation was in place across the greater North American domain; with its anchor lows over eastern Oregon and south of the Great Lakes, and upper ridging oriented north/south across the Central/Northern Plains. Mostly clear skies and cool for tonight with lows in the low/mid 50s.
506 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
Colder air associated with the upper low caused light snow accumulations down to 5000 feet in the West Central Mountains, including McCall, earlier this morning. The upper low will be the primary focus for convection this afternoon as daytime heating acts on the moist and unstable air mass, resulting in more showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. A large upper level low centered in eastern Oregon will move slowly northeast into central Idaho tonight and into Canada on Sunday. Unsettled weather will continue through the extended as the region remains under the influence of a mean upper level trough.
/issued 543 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ High pressure over the region will result in vfr skc conditions to prevail, with the exception of patchy areas of fog btwn 12-14z this am. /issued 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the central part of the US this morning. Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region today. This ridge of high pressure will shift east and flatten on Sunday.
Upper low over Oregon will finally start to shift northeast today tracking into southern Alberta by tomorrow morning. However, the general flow will be cyclonic and unstable due to a broad scale trough over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Sunday. There is some chance for more organized rain from compact upper lows--one to our west and another to our east--later in the week, as shown on the 00z ECMWF, but confidence in this scenario is low given the long lead time and model differences.
This outflow combines with pacific cold front, and SE flow from eastern zones, to create convergence over and near Rosebud county for enhanced convective potential there late this afternoon/early this evening. Lift will come from weak jet divergence as upper low shifts slowly E, and increasing vorticity. Upper low over Oregon will finally start to shift northeast today tracking into southern Alberta by tomorrow morning. However, the general flow will be cyclonic and unstable due to a broad scale trough over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Sunday. There is some chance for more organized rain from compact upper lows--one to our west and another to our east--later in the week, as shown on the 00z ECMWF, but confidence in this scenario is low given the long lead time and model differences.
Cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday with the most concentrated precipitation expected over the Idaho Panhandle. Large closed low over eastern Oregon is sending a couple waves into the region. Another band of rain will pivot around the large area of low pressure over the area tonight thus MVFR conditions are likely to occur at times.
Will also see another day of lower dew points as the southeasterly flow out of the ridge reinforces the low level dry air. Through collaboration, have kept temperatures on the cooler side of guidance on Sunday based on the expectation of stratus becoming trapped below the elevated inversion making it difficult to warm. Appears that capping inversion will be enough to limit convective potential until the trough approaches from the west Sunday night. Models have slowed trough ever so slightly, so have slowed onset of pops across central South Dakota.
The model suite is in good agreement that another short wave trough rotates around the main upper low over New York tonight. The model suite is also very agreeable that an upper ridge will build into the area from the west.
High pressure continues to be in control of the weather today centered across Iowa and drifting Southeast. Temperatures inland will be in the lower to middle 70s. A weak trough will move across the upper lakes later this afternoon into tonight and some models continue to suggest isolated showers developing perhaps as far south as southern WI this afternoon. High temps will rebound into the mid 70s across much of the cwa with cooler temps along the lake as winds remain north/northeasterly. High pressure will move across the lakes region Sunday. This will maintain onshore flow with cooler temps along the lakeshore but temps further inland should warm well into the 70s with some western areas likely reaching 80.
This system will bring breezy and cooler than normal temperatures back to the region. Per objective analysis, the main 120+kt jet streak has rounded the trough base and a related strong vorticity center was beginning to lift from southern NV towards the central and northern Rockies. However, the post frontal thermal gradient across the southern CA higher terrain was forcing strong downslope mountain waves through Imperial County still this morning, though further nocturnal cooling and advancement of the low level boundary east should gradually allow these stronger winds to abate somewhat by sunrise. For the most part, the strongest winds will be experienced over ridge tops and terrain features with lesser speeds in valley locations. Even through the end of the week, the western Conus will remain under general troughing as the downstream flow over the eastern United States/Atlantic basin stays relatively blocked.
Once the low-level jet weakens by mid-morning, most of these showers will dissipate. The exception will be near the coastal plains where a warm front will move inland this afternoon. For tonight, the low-level jet strengthens and this is expected to lead to additional light showers late this evening into early Sunday morning.
Warmer conditions will also follow for much of the upcoming week. A rather convolution pattern exists over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this morning as a low level deformation axis currently extends basically along the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Fries Precipitation chances will continue through Sunday as a long wave trough deepens over the eastern US.
1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Temperatures are warming nicely across southern Wisconsin, with the exception of the lakeshore where an easterly breeze off the lake is keeping the temps cooler.
and Sunday Satellite imagery shows mid to high level clouds associated with a weak nearly closed upper low passing to the south, will depart East Central Wisconsin this morning.
356 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK INFERRED LOW NEAR KGBG WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 50S AND 60S FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AND REDUCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT AN EVEN WARMER DAY IN THE UPPER 60S.
UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT THE CWA WILL SEE ANOTHER PLUME OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE HEADED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
352 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CO AS OF 09Z. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS RIGHT IN THE LOW CENTER WHERE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THOUGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD KEEP SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING MUCH ON WARMER PAVEMENT SURFACES. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. STILL SOME IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH LIFTS INTO NE CO/NE BY 06Z. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
303 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. TEMP TREND IS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL SOUNDINGS.
249 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
243 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 The slow moving upper low will continue to move eastward over the next 24 hours and bring the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Ozarks. An Isolated rumble of thunder will likely be the most storms can muster despite temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s as the upper low begins to lift slowly to the northeast.
A weakening upper level ridge continued to keep above normal temperatures in place across the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures across the region were in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valley, while temperatures in the higher elevations were in the upper 60s. The upper ridge positioned over California will break down this evening as the weak upper level trough of low pressure moves across NorCal. Temperatures will become slightly cooler this week as another larger upper level system slides southward along the west coast.
1039 AM PDT TUE APR 19 2016 Strong high pressure will continue over the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday leading to dry and very warm weather.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EWD OVER THE WRN ATLC. ALLOWING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE SERN CONUS BY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD FOR SUN FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF A FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SMALL AREA OF POOLED MOISTURE MON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTH-CTRL FL WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THU WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS NORTH AND NEAR 15 KNOTS SOUTH.
147 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
238 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 Broad upper low over the Lee Rockies will continue to drift toward the Great Lakes through the short term forecast period.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during late week.
222 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016 UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
600 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 The slow moving upper low will continue to move eastward over the next 24 hours and bring the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Ozarks. An Isolated rumble of thunder will likely be the most storms can muster despite temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s as the upper low begins to lift slowly to the northeast.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NUDGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA RETURNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AWAITING THE SECOND WAVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER MID WEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAIN AREAS OF PCPN HAVE STRETCHED OUT AROUND THE LOW FROM SOUTHERN ND TO EASTERN MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY. MILDER AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND NORTH AND WEST OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 40 OVER FAR NORTHERN SD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. WHICH WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW TO FINALLY PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW SPEEDS UP AND MOVES INTO IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
342 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
304 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016 UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN SPOKE OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LIFTING EASTWARD INTO WRN KS. NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM PUEBLO EASTWARD. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEB. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER FOR A DRIER AND WARMER WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS STUCK AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AWAY FROM COLORADO.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
636 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
250 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REALLY HAS NOT MOVED MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NEAR FORT MORGAN. SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER SWRN NEBRASKA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NRN CO IN THE AFTN.
AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL SUSTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE MI THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS HIGH WILL SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT /LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S/. WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES UNDER A SE SFC WIND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW NOW CHURNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GETS EJECTED TO THE EAST AND ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER SW FLOW PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI.
324 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 VEIL OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT/TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS/MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD DRAG THE BULK OF THE RAIN THREAT WITH IT DURING THIS PERIOD.
MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W TROF ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE WY/CO UPPER LOW WERE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL WI. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THE WEAK S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. POPS WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BREAK AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
112 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN SOUTHWEST CWA AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
111 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper low. The precipitation threat should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more positively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is transported into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing surface cold front.
UPPER LOW OUT WEST PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD. OPENING INTO MORE OF A TROF ON THU AS IT TRAVERSES THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND SENDS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH POST FRONTAL RIDGE YIELDING CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS AND SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. 13 A LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
335 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE COLORADO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A RATHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS NEB. WITH WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE LOW FOR MOST CENTRAL KS. BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING FOR THU THROUGH SAT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 80 ACROSS THE LAND STATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN COAST AND MERGE WITH THE HIGH THAT WAS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A COOLING TREND TO TAKE PLACE.
136 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
315 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 Large upper level low over the western half of the country is not making much progress, nor is much eastern progression expected in the overnight.
149 PM PDT TUE APR 19 2016 A slight cooling trend through Wednesday as high pressure weakens and onshore flow returns.
314 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016 UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN STILL HANGS ON IN TERMS OF BRINGING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. POSSIBLY MORE OF A BROKEN LOWER ALTO CU LAYER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS A FEW MORE MILES TO THE EAST. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW BROKEN DECKS AROUND FIVE THOUSAND FEET THAT MAY GENERATE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SUPPORT FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHERE I ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR.
304 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
245 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2022 A high pressure ridge is currently in place, and mainly high clouds are over the region. Wednesday night into Thursday: The shallow ridge will move off to the east by Thursday afternoon as a trough makes its way into northeast Montana. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday.
Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Saskatchewan southward to Louisiana will continue to shift eastward tonight, resulting in a relaxing pressure gradient and decreasing winds across central Illinois. As the high approaches, winds will decrease to less than 10mph across the board overnight. As high pressure shifts east of the area tomorrow, southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will bring some warmth back to the area, but afternoon highs will only reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.
With the high nearby, weakening winds and clear skies, temperatures will have no trouble dropping into the lower to middle teens for much of the area, especially into east central Iowa.
(Through Thursday) A cold front is expected to pass through our CWA tomorrow, advecting dry continental air into the area dropping dewpoints into the high 20s / upper 30s and temperatures in the upper 30s / low 40s overnight. This will bring temperatures in the upper 50s / mid 60s areawide as cooler air pushes into the region from the NNE.
Lows will fall near freezing for areas S of I-20 to just below freezing N of the I-20 corridor. With continue CAA & E-NE winds at the sfc & only subtle return flow on W side of low-level ridge axis, highs will struggle to peak in low-mid 50s along & N of the I-20 corridor while upper 50s to the S.
652 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 (Through Thursday) A cold front is expected to pass through our CWA tomorrow, advecting dry continental air into the area dropping dewpoints into the high 20s / upper 30s and temperatures in the upper 30s / low 40s overnight. This will bring temperatures in the upper 50s / mid 60s areawide as cooler air pushes into the region from the NNE.