Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For the rest of this afternoon, the area will remain dominated by high pressure near the surface and north flow at 500mb by being inbetween the trough to the east and the ridge to the west. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies across the area and warmer as the ridge at 500mb expands east towards the area and puts us in a weak northerly flow aloft with a weak southerly flow near the surface. The weak flow with relatively dry air in place will help keep the skies clearer and have high temperatures reach the lower 90's with a few areas remaining in the upper 80s. Tuesday, temperatures are expected to be even warmer as skies remain relatively clear and warm/moist air moves in from the southeast. Guidance has the ridge aloft retrograding slightly and bringing the flow to be more out of the northwest.
314 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Current satellite shows the upper level low moving off to the east this morning. This orientation will provide another day with light northerly to easterly winds with warmer temperatures but remaining below normal for this time of year. Rain chances for the short term look to remain minimal as ridging will be building into the region as the low pressure system exits.
240 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Current surface analysis shows warm front over western SD, with low pressure over eastern MT and a cold front stretching back to the west-southwest across southern MT. Cold front over MT will move slowly southeast across the area later today and tonight.
1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Summary: Wildfire smoke over the region will keep temps a little cooler than otherwise expected for Monday.
337 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The upper low spinning over the upper Mississippi Valley continues to feed deep moisture into the TN Valley.
333 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The vertically stacked system centered overhead will continue to slowly move out of the region over the next 24 to 36 hours, as the upper level closed low opens up and lifts out towards the Great Lakes. As for high temperatures today they will remain about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year, in the low 70s to low 80s. Then on Tuesday, most of the low level moisture and forcing will be well east of the forecast area.
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 (This evening through Monday) A weak cold front will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the region through tonight. Otherwise, look for slightly cooler temperatures during the day tomorrow.
The parent upper low remains parked over MO. Higher PoPs will stay in NW AL, closer to the low and where storms were less widespread earlier today. The rest of the forecast showing lows in the low 70s is in good shape. A trough feature with this low will help draw deep moisture across the southeast states, continuing more clouds than sun and good chances of showers. High temperatures on Mon/Tue should only warm into the lower 80s, thanks to high rain chances and clouds. These readings may actually be a bit cooler if more clouds and/or showers are realized.
An upper level trough over the central CONUS remains wedged between two upper level ridges. One ridge remains in place over the western states while another ridge builds along the eastern seaboard. As the ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward on Monday, it forces the upper level trough to lift northeast. At the surface, a weak boundary, associated with a low pressure over the Midwest, remains in place over the Tennessee Valley and ArkLaTex regions before eventually dissipating. Meanwhile, lows dip into the lower 70s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
While the upper low is fcst to weaken and lift to the NE later today, the lingering trof axis wl stay in place acrs the Mid South. The upper trof wl begin to shift sloly EWD heading into Tue, with just a slight chc of a shower or storm included ovr far ERN and SRN AR.
Eastern ridge will amplify over the region today. These height rises will work to nudge the warm front further north. This would place the highest probability for convection this afternoon in portions of Ohio and northern PA. The ridge will hold in place on Tuesday which will push the deepest moisture north and west of the region.
/issued 903 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ An upper level low pressure system remains over Missouri this evening. Scattered bands of showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the region rotating around the upper low. /issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ An upper low spinning around the mid-Section of the country will be our prime weather maker through Tuesday.
A closed upper over Missouri with a trof axis extending southwest towards the AR-LA-TX region will remain parked over this region today and then lift northeast on Tuesday, so Tuesday may see a small decrease in areal coverage of convection. Deep southwest flow on the east side of the trof axis will provide large-scale lift today for the production of numerous showers and storms across Alabama, peaking in coverage during the afternoon. By Tuesday the upper trof will begin to lift northeast, but Central Alabama will remain on the east side of the trof axis, and scattered to numerous convection will develop during the heating of the day.
Aside from that area, plenty of subsidence from the high pressure, centered over the Great Basin, has stopped any convection from developing this afternoon. This smoke is moving in from much of the PacNW and northern California, riding over the ridge and then drifting down into our neck of the woods. The higher terrain will see some Cu development and any showers/storms that form will likely bring plenty of virga as the sub-cloud layer won't have had enough time to moisten up.
An upper level Low is centered to our Northwest over Missouri with and upper level Ridge over the Western Atlantic. Mainly southerly flow at the surface will prevail for today, then shifting to the southeast overnight as the upper level ridge expands westward. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Subtropical ridge axis will shift a little to the north by Tuesday, with the low-level flow becoming more southeasterly. May see a bit later start with the southeasterly flow, allowing afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 90s.
U/L ridge over the western Atlantic will build over the Florida peninsula.
SSW moist flow aloft to persist with upper low over the midwest and mid-Atlantic ridge to the east.
259 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Weak lift associated with the upper low centered over central Missouri early this morning is leading to very isolated pockets of very light showers. Isolated diurnal shower activity--and perhaps a few thunderstorms--will be possible today given some weak instability, with the highest thunderstorm chances over the eastern Ozarks. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
However, some short wave ridging is in place for some of the day.
Strong moisture advection on deep-layer southeast flow forced dewpoints into the low 70s across southeast NM this morning where a few severe storms w/ torrential rainfall have occurred. Destabilization will continue farther north and west where strong afternoon heating and orographic lift fires storms along the high terrain.
Monday is looking a bit more active across the region, again with the highest coverage along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim into Yavapai/Gila counties. Convection was slow to start, but as a few stronger cells start to move into the higher PW airmass south of the rim, there is room to grow.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Subsidence continues across Deep South Texas with strong mid-level ridging occurring over the southwestern US and the western Atlantic. For Tuesday, the combined influences of a mid-level longwave trough moving across the Mississippi Valley and an inverted mid-level trough over northern Mexico will lead to some mid-level disturbances developing over the Gulf.
205 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Typical summer time pattern continues with the Bermuda High will ridging into the forecast area during the week. Pressure ridge offshore extending into the coastal plain. Temperatures remain seasonal with lows in the low/mid 70s. Bermuda high will be ridging into the region with the upper level ridge offshore and an upper level trough digging into the MS River Valley. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s. Bermuda high will continue ridging into the SE US with an upper level ridge moving into the area from the middle of the week onward. Given the low confidence have indicated scattered low clouds early this morning.
1132 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021 A weak upper trough will cross the area late tonight into early Monday. By early Monday afternoon, a cold front will advance southeastward across the area, with isolated showers and storms possible by late afternoon over the Black Hills. The cold front will likely stall out near the SD/NE border or across northern Nebraska on Tuesday, with temps near seasonable averages, in the upper 70s and 80s.
257 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Its been a quiet and slightly cooler night across the Western Slope with current temperature trending up to 3 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across the north and by as much as 15 degrees down south. This afternoon will see the dominating area of high pressure persist with its center drifting further southwest towards SoCal by the day's end. Conditions will improve as we reach midweek thanks to increased moisture and the breakdown of the upper level ridge.
Surface winds will be light as they gradually shift from north to south with the progression of the ridge.
419 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Typical summer time pattern continues with the Bermuda High will ridging into the forecast area during the week. A weakening upper trough will linger over the MS Valley as an upper ridge builds into the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge into the southeastern states. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Latest 06Z surface analysis places a rare mid-July cold front along a line from Ozona to Lampasas to Waco. South Central Texas is situated in somewhat of a no-man's land, with a mid-level ridge baking the Desert Southwest in record heat, and mid-level trough over central Missouri, resulting in scattered storms along a cold front over North Texas. Expect some low level clouds to thin out by mid to late morning today, with temperatures warming back into the lower to middle 90s. The front will lift back northward as a warm front, and with sfc flow remaining south-southeasterly, the sea breeze will become the primary player in terms of any shower or storm threat.
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A strong Bermuda high pressure over the western Atlantic will bring a warm, and moist southerly flow across NC through late week.
1050 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Weak ridging continues to be the primary pattern. The weak ridging/zonal flow continues through tomorrow night. This wave will generally have the impact of producing peak heating showers and thunderstorms, starting along the higher elevations of the western mountains, before drifting east and northeast later in the afternoon. Those adventurers traversing the higher elevations across western and northern WY Tuesday should pay close attention to convection is it fires along the higher elevations.
1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 500 hPa ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface have resulted in a very pleasant day. Temperatures tomorrow will be very similar to today, perhaps a degree or two warmer topping out in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the upcoming work week as 925 hPa temperatures rise to between +24 and +28 Celsius ahead of the next approaching trough.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 84 69 87 / 70 70 70 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 70 86 69 86 / 70 50 60 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 84 68 85 / 70 50 70 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 67 87 66 85 / 70 40 60 30 50.
335 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Bermuda high pressure extends into the the area for most of the week. A cold front approaches from the north this weekend. Bermuda high pressure will continue to build across the local area today, leading to a very warm and mainly dry day across the area.
The upper level pattern will remain relatively unchanged through Monday as an area of strong high pressure aloft remains anchored to our south and a dry westerly flow aloft continues over our area. A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Desert Southwest through Tuesday. However, the smoke should help keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler than what they would otherwise be, and have adjusted temperatures below guidance to account for this. On Tuesday, an upper trough moving by to our north will bring a couple degrees of cooling, but temperatures will remain 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Breezy northwest winds will develop Tuesday afternoon as the trough passes by.
A closed upper low across Missouri will gradually open up on Monday and head towards the western Great Lakes region. Later tonight, an upper level disturbance rotating around the upper low could clip our southern counties with a few showers, thus kept a small chance of rain in our far southern counties across central and east-central Wisconsin. A light east wind at Oshkosh may keep readings up in the lower 60s there due to the warmer waters of Lake Winnebago.
Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to climb into the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s. Currently have highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations along the MO River Valley and south central SD possibly reaching the lower 90s.
Upper low, currently located over MO will begin to slowly lift northeast today.
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A low pressure system continues to slowly make its way across eastern MO. A large high pressure across the southeast CONUS is impeding its exit. A separate high pressure builds across the Great Plains pushing the low out of MO during the day today. Light showers continue to rotate around the low with much of the activity being concentrated to areas east of I-35. Thanks to this ridging across the area, we will be given a couple days to dry out.
319 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week. Ridging sfc and aloft over the Atlantic will cont to extend W over the region. bit cooler central/srn beaches.
351 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 08Z water vapor imagery shows the upper low still spinning over the MS River Valley with the upper ridge encompassing the Great Basin and Rockies. As the low continues to circulate, stratus has gradually retreated westward a bit for the last few hours. This trough is progged to weaken and make more progress east today with the ridge working its way toward our area, although some forecast soundings suggest the cloud cover may still be slow to exit completely. Highs look to reach the mid to upper 80s in the western half of the CWA where skies look clear for the day, while eastern areas stay in the low 80s.
Elevated smoke, this time from the western wildfires, will remain an issue as a short wave trough approaches from the northern Plains and funnels a ribbon of smoke eastward around the top of the western ridge.
1047 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 (This evening through Monday) Slightly drier air has filtered south in the wake of the cold front that brought storms to much of the area last night.
121 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend. Atlantic high pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through the period, maintaining typical July weather. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain control of the local weather late week into the weekend. Tonight: High pressure across the western Atlantic will extend across local waters through the night while an upper lvl low approaches the Florida coast late.
Warm and dry conditions should prevail as a general rule through Monday afternoon w/ substantial upper-level ridging remaining intact. A few very weak disturbances will likely traverse the flow along the edge of the ridge. Tuesday favors the potential for a more organized threat for severe storms across our northern and eastern zones as a much stronger short wave rides the edge of the ridge.
An upper level trough over the central CONUS remains wedged between two upper level ridges. One ridge remains in place over the western states while another ridge builds along the eastern seaboard. As the ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward today, it forces the upper level trough to lift northeast. At the surface, a weak boundary, associated with a low pressure over the Midwest, remains in place over the Tennessee Valley and ArkLaTex regions before eventually dissipating. Meanwhile, lows dip into the lower 70s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
The upper low spinning over the upper Mississippi Valley continues to feed deep moisture into the TN Valley.
Still think the most activity will line up near the warm front/northwestern edge of the ridge, but increased values a bit to match up with model expectations. Downpours remain a threat given the high PWAT air mass. Eastern ridge will amplify over the region today. These height rises will work to nudge the warm front further north. This would place the highest probability for convection this afternoon in portions of Ohio and northern PA. The ridge will hold in place on Tuesday which will push the deepest moisture north and west of the region.
947 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The cold front is just arriving in the Bismarck area, with winds at the ASOS shifting to northwest and getting a bit breezy. This in response to a mid level short wave trough and a surface cold front crossing the area. For tonight, surface ridging from the northwest but the mid level flow is a bit wavy and so scattered mid level clouds should be expected to be passing through. Guidance remains consistent in that the higher chances for rain are south, and highest into northern South Dakota where an MCS could very well form.
624 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A low pressure system continues to slowly make its way across eastern MO. A large high pressure across the southeast CONUS is impeding its exit. A separate high pressure builds across the Great Plains pushing the low out of MO during the day today. Light showers continue to rotate around the low with much of the activity being concentrated to areas east of I-35. Thanks to this ridging across the area, we will be given a couple days to dry out.
621 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week. Ridging sfc and aloft over the Atlantic will cont to extend W over the region. bit cooler central/srn beaches.
The Atlc high pressure ridge axis resides north of ECFL. An upper air disturbance will undercut the ridge brining unseasonably cooler air aloft and greater instability. Highs this afternoon reaching the low 90s for areas west of I-95 from Osceola County northward and upper 80s elsewhere. Overnight lows in the low to mid-70s, with upper 70s along the coast. An upper disturbance will bring cooler (than normal) air aloft and greater instability.
Overall synoptic patter of upper high to the southwest and trough to the northeast will initially place us within relative zonal flow, shifting gradually to west-northwest by late week/weekend.
Cloud cover will limit heating somewhat again today and as a result we're looking at highs only peaking in the low to perhaps mid 80s. Expect more of the same for Tuesday as the upper-trough swings ENE into the Ohio Valley, nudging the front directly over part of the area.
330 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA has a northerly flow aloft due to an upper air ridge to the west and upper air trough to the east. During the day, the trough moves eastward which will turn the flow over the CWA north-northwesterly as the influence of the ridge increases. The high looks to move a bit eastward during the day turning the winds southeasterly. Monday's daytime high temperatures look to be a bit warmer than the previous weekend highs as they range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. On Monday night, models shows the upper air ridge being increasing its control over the flow aloft which changes more northwesterly overnight. Monday night's low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s.
The forecast period will feature a significant uptick in monsoon activity as high pressure weakens and ample moisture surges in from the south. Expect more widespread thunderstorms along the Rim and pushing into the lower elevations compared to yesterday. Due to continued hot temperatures while the high pressure breaks down, the potential for severe thunderstorms will continue with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats where stronger storms set up.
High temperatures today will again be in the low to mid 90s, and then solidly in the mid 90s on Tuesday.
This in response to a mid level short wave trough and a surface cold front crossing the area. For tonight, surface ridging from the northwest but the mid level flow is a bit wavy and so scattered mid level clouds should be expected to be passing through. Guidance remains consistent in that the higher chances for rain are south, and highest into northern South Dakota where an MCS could very well form.
08Z water vapor imagery shows the upper low still spinning over the MS River Valley with the upper ridge encompassing the Great Basin and Rockies. As the low continues to circulate, stratus has gradually retreated westward a bit for the last few hours. This trough is progged to weaken and make more progress east today with the ridge working its way toward our area, although some forecast soundings suggest the cloud cover may still be slow to exit completely. Highs look to reach the mid to upper 80s in the western half of the CWA where skies look clear for the day, while eastern areas stay in the low 80s.
/issued 414 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ An upper level low continues to spin over the region today and will bring more showers and storms to the Mid South. Expect more of the same for Tuesday, and we finally will see a small decrease in rain chances by mid week as the upper low pulls away.
Upper level heights continue to build over the region as persistent ridging over the western CONUS drifts east. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure has settled over the area. A very pleasant day is expected with highs in the low 80s and light surface winds.
The mid level high pressure that was in control yesterday is beginning to shift west as an upper low digs farther south across the eastern portions of TX. It'll feel warmer however, due to humid conditions resulting in heat indices of 105 to 109, mainly across the inland Coastal Plains. Temps on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler due to the increase in clouds/rain.
615 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Current satellite shows the upper level low moving off to the east this morning. This orientation will provide another day with light northerly to easterly winds with warmer temperatures but remaining below normal for this time of year. Rain chances for the short term look to remain minimal as ridging will be building into the region as the low pressure system exits.
519 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Its been a quiet and slightly cooler night across the Western Slope with current temperature trending up to 3 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across the north and by as much as 15 degrees down south. This afternoon will see the dominating area of high pressure persist with its center drifting further southwest towards SoCal by the day's end. Conditions will improve as we reach midweek thanks to increased moisture and the breakdown of the upper level ridge.
2) Southwest flow aloft will develop late this week, as relatively warm high pressure is to intensify east of the Rockies.
As a result, many interior locations have not seen the cooling reprieve that was expected with this troughing overnight, thus have extended the Excessive Heat Warning for zones along the eastern border of our CWA through this evening.