Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A long wave trough will remain off the west coast into this weekend. The original trough will move slowly east and weaken before it moves onshore Wednesday night. Short waves diving down the backside of the trough will dig and form a replacement trough farther offshore Thursday. The incoming trough will push a front onshore late this morning. It will also be breezy over the ridges and in the Shasta Valley.
642 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
650 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Low pressure developing across Iowa today will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms along a frontal boundary draped across the area this afternoon. As this system lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Thursday, the accompanying cold front will move across our area, likely causing thunderstorms.
436 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front will lay out south of Lake Erie this evening and lift northward late overnight as a warm front. A cold front will pass through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
This disturbance will bring some snow showers to the high terrain of the central mountains late tonight and Wednesday, especially during the late night and early morning hours. Speeds in and near the mountains will generally be the highest with gusts up to about 40 mph possible. Fire weather conditions may climb to near critical levels over parts of the lower elevations Wednesday. However, the fuels across most of the lower elevation zones are currently rated non-critical due to the early stages of a greenup that is underway resulting from the heavy precipitation that fell at the end of March and the first part of April.
A slow moving upper level closed low develops near the CO/KS/OK Panhandle region by midday Fri with multiple lead impulses ahead of the main low. Periods of heavy showers will continue Fri-Fri night-early Sat until the upper low moves overhead on Sat.
Upper level ridging extends over Florida, then northward over the eastern seaboard through Thursday. On the surface, strong high pressure sits north of Nova Scotia and ridges south-southwest through the western Atlantic.
A potent embedded S/WV trough/impulse over Wyoming is advecting east- northeast towards the Dakotas. High pressure will limit precipitation chances across the north initially today with rain developing south early this morning and mainly confined to along and south of the I94 corridor. A northern stream S/WV trough will moves easterly along the international border and will bring rain chances to west central and northwestern ND later today, then west to east tonight.
Upper ridge over the region today with sunny skies and warm temperatures. Upper level trough will push a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tue night with rain likely. Freezing levels will be 7-9k.
Highs should mostly be in the lower and middle 30s, but could reach the upper 30s in parts of central and north-central MN due to more sun and the albedo caused by the pine trees. High pressure will begin nudging into the Northland from the west tonight, but much of the region will maintain that cold north flow. Tuesday looks sunnier since the high pressure will move through the region. Tuesday night remains quiet with a ridge with a ridge sliding slowly south across the area.
Model forecast soundings are in agreement this cloudiness will overspread the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri by midday.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. A cold front will approach the Florida Keys this afternoon. A few strong thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and along the Florida Keys today ahead of this approaching cold front.
434 AM PDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Another dry and warm day today, then a wet and cooler pattern sets up through the end of the week.
High pressure will build over the area and these clouds should dissipate during the morning.
A nice warming trend along with dry weather is anticipated through mid-week as high pressure amplifies across the intermountain west over the next several days.
The upper flow will become more northerly by this afternoon due to ridging over the intermountain west and an upper low dropping south through Ontario and into the Great Lakes region. This will allow a weak cold front to pass through the state. The cold front may bring a few clouds to northeast Iowa in addition to breezy northerly winds to the entire area.
732 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Aviation Low pressure will move across Lower Michigan today bringing light snow which will transition to snow showers near Lake Michigan tonight and on Tuesday. Some diurnal enhancement is possible this afternoon given steep lapse rates as upper low comes through.
At upper levels, a western ridge continues to expand eastward into the Front Range and western plains. Today the cool high pressure system drifts southeastward into the Red River Valley, while warm advection commences in the western Dakotas under the influence of the advancing upper ridge. Thus expect full sun, with cooler air east and warm advection west. Going for highs in the lower 30s over central North Dakota and mid to upper 30s in the southwest. Likewise cooler east tonight with lows in the single digits above zero central to the lower and middle teens west. Fairly decent warm advection commences as the upper level ridging expands, and southwesterly flow at H850 brings warm, dry air into the Dakotas.
Low pressure tracking north off the east coast will result in as much as 1-2 inches of snow over the eastern ridges over the course of the day. Outside of the ridges, skies should be partly sunny with highs remaining about 5 - 7 degrees under the averages. Upper low pressure will deepen over the forecast area as the longwave pattern amplifies.
Early morning GOES images showed the areas that had higher snow amounts in the 1-2 inch range early this morning, generally from Dickson County, northeast across northern Cheatham County, Robertson County, and eastward along the Highland Rim to the Upper Cumberland. BNA is expected to top out around 50, and most areas southwest of BNA will have highs in the lower 50s.
High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday. The ridge axis currently centered over Nevada will slowly make its way east today and tomorrow, moving overhead tomorrow morning. In a warmer airmass with increasing southerly flow, further warming is anticipated tomorrow with some record highs possible, especially over northern Utah.
Highs in the lower to mid 30s still look good with maybe some upper 30s to 40 degrees far southwest in the cwa. High pressure and clear skies have dominated the forecast this morning. High pressure at the sfc will dominate as an upper ridge slowly transitions east over the Plains by mid to late week.
Dry and warmer weather returns later today through Tuesday night.
Winds are starting to increase out of the northwest in the wake of a cold front. Brisk northwest winds due to mixing and cold air advection will keep temperatures a little cooler than past days with highs in the upper 40s. Highs Tuesday will only be in the lower 30s with brisk northwest winds.
The will bring cooler and drier conditions to SE TX today.
A low pressure system will move in Tue, bringing a return to showery weather with more seasonable temps that will last through most of the rest of the week.
Low clouds continue to linger over the region behind yesterday's cold front. All sites should become VFR by 21Z as the low clouds are expected to scatter out this afternoon. /Issued 414 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ Early morning water vapor imagery shows closed upper low moving across the TN valley into the southeastern states.
Deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict an upper pattern characterized by a trough/low over the ERN CONUS and a ridge over the WRN CONUS. ) Owing to CAA in response to the eariler cold front, cooler and drier conditions are expected today. Owing to drier atmospheric conditions, expect much cooler conditions tonight with readings in the 40s. Slightly warmer Tuesday.
Upper level troughing remains in place across the eastern one- third of the U.
Models consistent with showing upper low pressure system will lift over the Carolinas today, dragging the associated front out of the CWA. Wrap around moisture behind the main band of precip could be enough to produce brief periods of rain/snow over the northwest Georgia mountains, but accumulations are not expected and freezing temperatures are expected only for an hour or two around sunrise and only in isolated areas. A tight pressure gradient will remain positioned over the area as the upper trough exits the region. Tuesday morning temperatures flirt with the freezing mark, but at this time, decent winds overnight should allow for continued mixing and confidence of actually making it to freezing is low.
Otherwise, highs will be similar to yesterday, except several degrees warmer across north central NEB.
Low pressure over Tennessee is expected to depart the region today to the east and develop into a strong system off the coast of the Carolinas. In the wake of the low.
Above normal temperatures will be around through mid week thanks to high pressure aloft.
Drier and warmer heading into the weekend. Light snow associated with the remnants of this morning's deformation band is still falling over the high terrain. Upper low pressure will deepen over the forecast area as the longwave pattern amplifies.
/issued 318 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ Cooler temperatures the next couple of days as cool Canadian air continues to drop south through the Plains, but winds remain light. A weak disturbance drops south through the High Plains on Tuesday and gradually gets sheared out, but may have just enough moisture for a few showers across parts of western Oklahoma.
Forecast soundings suggest that ice production may be lost at times this morning, and some light rain or drizzle (possibly freezing) could result.
/issued 458 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ Drier and cooler air filtering into the region early this morning in the wake of the CDFNT that crossed the area SUN afternoon and evening. 13 Moderate to strong north winds will gradually subside this afternoon through tonight as high pressure settles into the region.
The primary concern will be the potential for stratus clouds to build in today as cyclonic flow on the western periphery of the Great Lakes trough grazes the eastern part of the area. The brisk northwest winds will make it feel notably cooler however, with afternoon apparent temps in the mid teens to mid 20s. Temperatures will cool into the teens across most of the area, with slightly cooler readings around 10 degrees over west central MN.
Surface pressure ridging settles over our area with the gusty winds mainly along and east of I-35 slowly subsiding today leading to much lighter winds tonight into Tuesday.
Our highs today are expected to increase into the lower to mid 60s. Tonight, we will see our lows drop into the lower 30s to upper 20s. The easterly surface winds and the slightly cooler airmass will help to hold our temperatures on Tuesday mostly in the 50s. Upper ridging is expected through the middle of the week which will usher in much warmer temperatures area wide.
Recent computer simulations, forecast model soundings and PV/Precipitable water analysis indicate that a passing weak upper impulse will trigger a few light showers over select higher locations and possibly the far southeastern plains from later today into tonight, while the remainder of the forecast district should experience dry conditions in combination with maximum and minimum temperatures a few degrees warmer than noted during the previous 24 hours.
Deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict an upper pattern characterized by a trough/low over the ERN CONUS and a ridge over the WRN CONUS. ) Owing to CAA in response to the earlier cold front, cooler and drier conditions are expected today. Owing to drier atmospheric conditions, expect much cooler conditions tonight with readings in the 40s. Slightly warmer Tuesday.
916 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Low pressure will redevelop off the Carolina coast later today and then rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will build southward into the central U.
With nearly full sun expected today, highs should be warmer across the pine treed areas of northwest and west central Minnesota.
900 AM PDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Dry and warmer weather will continue today with a subtropical air mass keeping nights warmer and high clouds streaming in from the southwest.
With high pressure pushing into the Deep South, pressure rises of around 1 mb per hour have been noted.
High pressure will continue to build southward into Kansas today. Expect all areas to be sunny by afternoon hours with high temperatures topping out in the lower 50s. Lows tonight will range from the low 20s in north central Kansas to the mid 20s in east central Kansas.
The ridge of high pressure currently over the Washington Cascades will begin to slowly shift east today. This is IN response to a deep low pressure system moving into the eastern Pacific. Temperatures will be in the high 40s to lower 60s under mostly sunny skies and light winds.
624 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 High pressure and clear skies have dominated the forecast this morning. High pressure at the sfc will dominate as an upper ridge slowly transitions east over the Plains by mid to late week.
Upper level ridging will move overhead for the next several days. A weak short wave trough will slide southeast out of the Rockies on Tuesday. At the same time, today and Tuesday will remain relatively cool with surface ridging in control of the near surface conditions.
High pressure ridging will continue to build over the northern Rockies through Tuesday. However, rising 500mb heights will result in temperatures today a few degrees warmer than yesterday with slightly warmer readings yet for Tuesday with a few 50 degree readings possible Tuesday from Billings to Livingston.
Skies will clear for the evening CWA-wide, but some thin low-level moisture may provide at least scattered cloud cover during the overnight and early morning hours, possibly having an impact of holding temperatures a degree or two warmer than the consensus guidance.
856 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Pretty clear that the main forecast challenge over the short term will be with the potential for fog and freezing fog. Freezing fog across northeast Montana has been fairly dense this morning but has begun to lift since sunrise. Hickford An upper level ridge pattern over the U. As snow melts during the warmer daytime hours, expect some increase in boundary layer moisture which could increase the potential for fog formation as a nocturnal inversion sets up.
High pressure building south into the area this morning brought low clouds to the area. This high pressure will serve as the foci for today's weather. Overall cool to start the period then a warming trend as the flow turns southwest and brings warmer air into the area. Latest models still advertise a longwave trof across the western CONUS that shifts east through the weekend.
Temperatures are forecast to fall to just around freezing and current thinking is that this should still allow for accumulations in the advisory area of an inch to an inch and a half mostly on elevated surfaces. As the upper low continues to the east later today north winds will increase, making for a breezy morning and afternoon. Tonight and Tuesday will be cool and dry as an upper trough strengthens over the eastern U.
Long wave trough in the Eastern Pacific with embedded short waves will be key weather player this week.
High pressure then slated to build in for Tue/Wed. GFS/EC trends favoring developing broad upper level ridging by the middle/later half of the new work week, with a milder temperature regime through the weekend.
729 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 MVFR to IFR conditions currently this morning with the upper level low overhead.
549 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper level ridge building ewd toward NM today.
416 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will maintain dry but cold weather today.
Thermodynamic profiles show lack of moisture in the dendritic growth zone to preclude snow, and low levels look like they would support freezing rain when temperatures get below freezing.
While north winds should be on the decrease, there are still some resultant wind chills in the single digits in the higher elevations in the far north and the current advisory will remain in effect thru 12z. Still outside the time period of amounts but still looks a tenth of an inch or less QPF at best which would yield a dusting up to an inch in the highest elevations.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will maintain dry and mild conditions through the remainder of the weekend.
So, if it feels warmer today than in the past two days, that's because it is. As an example: expect highs this afternoon to nose above freezing in areas just south and west of Kansas City.
A more organized low across central Manitoba has a cold front extending southwest near the MT/ND/Canadian border. The highly meridional pattern in place at the beginning of the period will gradually break down as energy over the Pacific Ocean sweeps away the western conus ridge. Patchy freezing drizzle and isolated flurries will also probably be common at KPIR, KABR and KATY between now and sunrise Sunday. The weather's gonna get rather snotty at all four terminals by Sunday afternoon when the next arctic cold frontal boundary blasts southward through the region.
In the low levels, weak south to southwest winds are being observed across the northern and central Plains ahead of an intensifying arctic front which will surge south into the mid-MO Valley by tonight. Persistent low-level warm advection ahead of the approaching arctic front will support warmer temperatures today with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
1141 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build in from the west later tonight and Sunday and crest over the area Sunday night. Low pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight while high pressure builds toward the region.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1040 mb ridge of high pressure centered near Northwest Missouri.
Another upper level low will approach the region Monday morning.
The persistent eastern CONUS trough will breakdown early this week, allowing the western NOAM ridge to shift east and support a warming trend mid week on. Arctic air combined with NW winds ahead of the high will support wind chills below -25 on the SD plains later tonight and again Monday night. Upper level ridge will shift east after Monday, with WAA Tue through Thur.
A Canadian cold front leading ahead of an Arctic cold front will bring light snow south across the north and east into central basins Sunday night and Monday. Ridge axis will be breaking down at the start of the forecast period, as a trough splits and undercuts southern portions of the ridge.
A low pressure system is expected to move through the area during the day on Monday. In the wake of this system, high pressure is expected to move into the area for the rest of the week. Should see an increase in mid and high level cloud cover as the day goes by with the approach of the next short wave trough. Model data suggest the main weather feature during this period will a rather sharp upper trough that is expected to drop into the Great Lakes region on Monday. Operational and ensemble data are pretty close with potential QFP with this system and resultant snow amounts, generally in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the highest totals over the northern zones.
This will help erode cloud cover through the day, but keep high temperatures in the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s to lower 40s south.
/Issued 216 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Dry and stable conditions in the short term as the upper trough holds over the region. Will need to issue a Wind Chill Advisory for parts of extreme north Georgia, mainly the higher elevations tonight as wind chill readings will drop to 5 above zero to 5 below zero.
1004 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018 Current surface map places warm front across southeast Montana, through the Black Hills, into western Nebraska. Warm front continues to push east overnight with very little drop off in temperatures across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Upper trough rotating around the west side of a Hudson Bay low will drop through the Dakotas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models in decent agreement for the middle of the week with upper level ridge shifting into the northern plains.
Due to the higher snowfall ratios, any small amount of QPF could produce a light dusting, or up to a few inches.
Winds picking up and still have a few sites with near 30 below wind chill but considering it will get warmer overnight will continue no issuance of advisory after coord with dlh. as a warm front edges into the area aloft. A cold front should sweep in from the north through the early afternoon.
Sunday will be dry and mild with high pressure aloft and low level offshore flow. A sharp and highly amplified upper ridge axis will pass across Western Washington for the rest of tonight, then continue across Eastern Washington on Sunday. As the amplified upper ridge axis moves east on Sunday and Monday, southerly flow aloft will increase. On Monday evening, it will push a negatively tilted cold front onto the coast, with some light rain trying to spread inland. Until the negatively tilted cold front arrives on Monday night, easterly offshore pressure gradients will continue to increase, with locally windy conditions expected in east-wind prone locales.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY High pressure continues to build into the region this morning. Tonight, a weak warm front will lift northeastward and through the region. For Monday, surface warm front will continue to move northeastward and away from the region. This should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower-mid 30s across the region for a time. However, an arctic cold front will drop into the region from the northwest. Just behind the cold front, a band of snow showers will drop southeastward through the region. Trends in the higher resolution guidance didn't show the band as impressive as in previous runs.
348 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will end this morning as high pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes.
as a warm front edges into the area aloft. A cold front should sweep in from the north through the early afternoon.
Winds will continue to weaken with the setting sun this evening before veering to the northeast on Sunday as high pressure north of the area slides east. /issued 340 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nrn Plains ridging swd through the cntl CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level troffing lingering over the ern 2/3 of the country, keeping a dry nwrly flow aloft over the region.
A trough of low pressure over the west and a trough over the east will pinch a narrow ridge of high pressure over our area.
A few clouds should persist overnight and will keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than seen this morning but nothing too great. Tomorrow, the deep trough over the east coast remains while a high amplitude ridge remains over the west coast. The jet stream is dropping down this ridge, moving over Montana, Wyoming, and the high plains and will provide enough support for some showers over that area. Another shot of energy will round the trough on Monday and looks to bring some light precipitation to the Front Range.