Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a rather diffuse pattern with weak high pressure located over northern ND, northern Great Lakes and eastern shores of Lake Huron. There is a very weak trough stretched west to east across central WI and that is the focus for the current isolated thunderstorm activity. Little change synoptically-speaking on Saturday with the upper ridge holding over the western Great Lakes, weak high pressure to our north and east, and more heat/humidity to contend with. 8H temperatures remain in the +18 to +20C range with dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s north, upper 60s to around 70 degrees south.
Conditions are expected to dry up by mid-afternoon with lingering cloud coverage helping keep temps in the lower to mid 80s. Areas that see some afternoon sunshine may experience warmer temps in the mid to upper 80s. Despite mostly cloudy conditions for the 4th, still expect to feel some muggy conditions as dew point temps will remain in the lower 70s. Sunday will be a hair warmer in the mid to upper 80s with mostly dry weather for the end of the weekend, minus the slight chance for some isolated pop-up storms Sunday afternoon. Upper level ridging will continue to remain in place over the central CONUS for much of the coming week.
Otherwise, high pressure will lead to warm and mainly dry conditions for the start of the upcoming week. Upper level ridging will remain in place across the region today.
A low grade monsoon pattern is in store through the much of the upcoming week with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly over the higher terrain to the south and east of Tucson. Meanwhile, high pressure will result in temperature near to slightly above normal. The position of this high with modest PWAT values ranging from around 0. 1" combined with drier and warmer air in the mid levels will provide enough subsidence to preclude the development of showers and thunderstorms this weekend for most of the forecast area.
Today will be sunny and warm as high pressure will continue to linger over the Great Lakes Region. Highs will approach 90 across the area and daytime mixing will allow dewpoints to to stay in the low 60s.
303 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Quiet conditions currently reign across the CWA early this morning, with upper air and satellite data showing ridging remaining the main feature. This ridging extends roughly from the NM/TX/Mex border area north-northeastward through the Central Plains. set up between low pressure spinning near the WA/Can border and troughing along the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure is draped NE-SW through the heart of the area, bringing light/variable winds CWA-wide.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas and deep South Texas today through Sunday. Highs Sunday will be slightly warmer than today.
410 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies with the axis of the ridge extending into the Central Plains and then east across the southern Great Lakes to Lower OH valley region. An upper level trough was moving across portions of the western Conus with another trough extending from the Maritimes into the northeast Conus. Today and tonight, the upper level ridging is expected to generally remain in place from northern Mexico and the southern Rockies into the central Plains and then east into the lower OH Valley region with the ridge gradually weakening along its northern and eastward extent later today and tonight. The ridging should cap convection or largely cap convection.
256 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Current surface map shows weak trof across western North Dakota into eastern Wyoming. with eastward shift of surface trof through this afternoon. Moisture rich boundary layer along the surface trof pushes MLCAPE above 2500J/KG across much of western South Dakota.
The large upper ridge over the central US responsible for the heat slowly flattens the next couple days while a few weak surface boundaries in the vicinity support periodic precip chances. Persistent south/southeast low level flow promotes moisture advection, while the trough will provide a focus for convergence and convective initiation. the big heat bubble reappears as an upper ridge rebuilds over the southern Plains.
The main concern will continue to be the stagnant heat as winds will be light through tomorrow, highs again climb to the low 90s area-wide and dewpoints hit the mid-upper 60s (similar to today).
For Independence Day, the models are in general agreement that ridging will be developing aloft. By early this upcoming week, the upper level ridge begins to flatten into a more zonal flow over our region.
405 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will build over the region beginning today and persist through midweek. A low pressure system will impact the Great Lakes region towards the end of the week. An upper level ridge will build back over the area today. Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to dip down into the low to mid 60s across the area. On Sunday, the upper level ridge and dry conditions will persist over the area with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Upper level mass fields are slightly muddled with strong ridging over the upper midwest and a weak but somewhat expansive trough over the southeast. Creeping towards the mid 90s today in the lowlands, and back into the upper 60s tonight. Fair weather conditions expected Saturday night through Sunday night as ridging at the sfc and aloft remain in control. Expect muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly across the lowlands, ranging to the low to mid 60s over the mountains Saturday and Sunday night. Hot and relatively dry weather conditions will continue through the period with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s for the lowlands and 70s to 80s for the higher elevations.
Isolated showers/storms possible over the high terrain during the afternoon hours but chances to low to include at any TAF site. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 72 91 71 87 / 20 10 50 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 92 71 90 / 10 10 50 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 92 70 90 / 10 0 40 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 67 90 68 88 / 10 0 40 10 40.
237 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the northern Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley.
316 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 More of the same today, with continued hot weather under the influence of the mid/upper ridge. High temperatures look to again top out in the 88-92 degree range, although dewpoints look to mix out into the low/mid 60s in most areas. This will keep us below Heat Advisory criteria, with most spots seeing max heat indices in the low 90s this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will continue to develop during the afternoon, with the highest chances around the Tampa Bay near KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ, and KLAL. West-southwest winds generally around 10-15 knots will prevail over the gulf coast waters as high pressure ridges over southern Florida. Daily scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day with the highest chances north of Tarpon Springs earlier in the day before more of the activity pushes inland.
20 A large-amplitude synoptic ridge continues to reside over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, with a mid-level positively tilted trough axis that was draped into the Southeast continuing to erode away. In the low-levels, a typical, moist summer-time airmass resides with PWATS between 1. MLCAPE values are better to the south and west which will help with convective development, but low mid-level lapse rates from the weak subsidence from the upper-level trough should keep storms from being too strong in the Southeast today. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s with morning lows generally around 70, which is running just slightly above climatological norms, with heat indices around the upper 90s to low triple digits today for much of central GA.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight through Sat morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across southwest Texas. /issued 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Hot and dry with an H5 ridge centered upstream and high pressure over the West Gulf and coastal Texas.
337 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Weak high pressure over the region today will lead to mostly dry and quiet Independence Day. The cold front will finish its southward push across the area Sunday night while the upper low scoots by just to our east.
Visible satellite this afternoon depicts fair weather cumulus developing across Central Appalachia with high pressure dominating through the entire atmospheric column. Temperatures soar into the low 90s this afternoon across a decent portion of the lowlands, and will be the case on Independence Day as well with very little changes expected to the weather pattern. Fair weather conditions expected Saturday night through Sunday night as ridging at the sfc and aloft remain in control. Expect muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly across the lowlands, ranging to the low to mid 60s over the mountains Saturday and Sunday night. Hot and relatively dry weather conditions will continue through the period with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s for the lowlands and 70s to 80s for the higher elevations.
Flow coming around and out of the high will continue to provide us with slightly reduced surface moisture than what we would otherwise have if our air mass was originating further south.
346 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 A weak cold front will move south through the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday and stall to our south in the Carolinas. Over the next 36 hours there is good agreement and little spread in the ensemble members that an upper level trough will be reinforced across New England. This subtle deepening will allow a weak cold front to move toward our area today.
1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 A hot one today with temperatures creeping into the low 90s, but the humidities are also making it feel oppressive (by our standards) with heat indexes in the mid 90s. Saturday will be very similar to today with warm and muggy conditions continuing as an upper level ridge remains stationary over the region. While the strong ridging that we've seen does flatten a bit allowing more short wave features to roll through there just isn't any indication of a widespread rainfall - just scattered shower activity here and there.
410 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will keep conditions quiet and very warm this weekend, with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. After a partly to mostly sunny morning, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the higher elevations of the NY Susquehanna region and into the hills of Northeast PA. High pressure moves into the area tonight, leading to quiet weather with mostly clear skies. High pressure will be in control for Sunday, leading to mostly sunny skies.
High pressure near the TX/NM border and a deep trough over the PacNW has kept the region under a dry, southwesterly onshore flow.
The upper level high pressure system will continue to move west of the region while an upper trough/low approaches from the east during the period (deterministic runs).
530 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the region today, and in the absence of any significant lifting mechanism and subsidence it should remain dry. The upper level pattern begins to change by later on Sunday as the ridge begins to flatten as upper level energy deepens and drifts across southern/central Canada.
While dense fog is not widespread, a few locations in the highway 84 corridor had 1/4 mile visibility, so may need to issue a dense fog advisory. High clouds hung on for a good part of the area and it was a little warmer, especially along I-20 where stratus also developed. Guidance temps across the area seemed good, will likely need to tweak hourly values to account for warmer conditions. Surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped across the southeast states, but trough axis seems to drive the convection expected to develop today.
Broad H500 trough remains draped across the western 1/3rd of the CONUS this morning, with an H500 closed low spinning over extreme Southern British Columbia. Further to the east an H500 ridge axis extends north from the Gulf of Mexico, over the High Plains/Mississippi Valley, and into Central Canada. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward advancing trough axis over the Northern Rockies will continue to advect moist, Pacific air into the region today, with PWATs generally ranging from 0. Thunderstorms are expected to develop first over the higher terrain of Western/Southwest/Central Montana between 19-23z today, and then advance east northeast across the remainder of Central and into North Central Montana through the evening hours tonight.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the northern Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley.
CAM models, particularly the HRRR and NAM nest, track this MCS northeast during the morning and decrease it as usually happens when the low level jet is disrupted by diurnal heating. Initially on Sunday, the familiar western trough and central plains ridge pattern will still be in place and will provide another round of thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.
Models continue to maintain high pressure over the region today and tonight. This will not only suppress rain changes, but an associated thermal ridge, at 850mb, will also help create afternoon highs well above those more usual, for early July.
644 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Current surface map shows weak trof across western North Dakota into eastern Wyoming. with eastward shift of surface trof through this afternoon. Moisture rich boundary layer along the surface trof pushes MLCAPE above 2500J/KG across much of western South Dakota.
940 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will keep conditions quiet and very warm this weekend, with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. After a partly to mostly sunny morning, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the higher elevations of the NY Susquehanna region and into the hills of Northeast PA. High pressure moves into the area tonight, leading to quiet weather with mostly clear skies. High pressure will be in control for Sunday, leading to mostly sunny skies.
temps should be a few degrees cooler underneath the vort max and associated cloud cover. daily diurnal thunderstorm chances will be possible with the greater potentials within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. surface winds return out of the south as a ridge of high pressure.
Dewpoints were in the low 70s for most of the area and winds were light and variable. High temperatures today are expected to range from the low 80s east where more cloud cover is likely, to the upper 80s in north-central KS where more sunshine and drier conditions are expected. Weak troughing aloft looks to occur from the lower Midwest into the southeastern US until the upper ridge regains strength over the area midweek. As the ridge re-establishes itself, a noticeable warming trend will occur by mid and late week when temps could reach the century mark in central KS.
540 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Another active day is in store for the Western Slope as subtropical moisture circulating around a ridge of high pressure continues to be advected into the region. PWATs will remain in this range throughout the day before trending downwards overnight and into Sunday as the high's center drifts over Baja, shutting off the moisture tap. Activity will once again favor the higher terrain along the Continental Divide with lightning and gusty winds likely threats. Additionally, dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 40s across the southern and central zones this afternoon which will lead to wetting rains and even some brief heavy downpours with stronger cells.
Weak upper level trough hanging over the area today will shift east tonight.
649 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Persistent MCS across southwest North Dakota, in an area of moist convergence associated with the low level jet, continues at sunrise. We expect this area to move northeast and eventually diminish as diurnal heating breaks up the low level jet. CAM models, particularly the HRRR and NAM nest, track this MCS northeast during the morning and decrease it as usually happens when the low level jet is disrupted by diurnal heating. Initially on Sunday, the familiar western trough and central plains ridge pattern will still be in place and will provide another round of thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.
By mid week a ridge starts to build in a little stronger and less energy is moving through the flow. With the drier weather, expecting highs to warm from the lower 80s early in the week to the upper 80s by the weekend.
Today Through Sunday Night Unsettled pattern will continue through the short term, as longwave ridging remains centered west and northwest of Arkansas, and troughing digs down into the central Gulf Coast Region. The frontal boundary will meander around the region, with several disturbances moving around the periphery of the ridge. The front will sink to the south a bit, with slightly cooler and drier air moving in from the northeast.
Persistent MCS across southwest North Dakota, in an area of moist convergence associated with the low level jet, continues at sunrise. We expect this area to move northeast and eventually diminish as diurnal heating breaks up the low level jet. CAM models, particularly the HRRR and NAM nest, track this MCS northeast during the morning and decrease it as usually happens when the low level jet is disrupted by diurnal heating. Initially on Sunday, the familiar western trough and central plains ridge pattern will still be in place and will provide another round of thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.
Temperatures still reach the lower 90s but boundary layer moisture, responsible for some shallow fog around sunrise, quickly mixes out with daytime heating.
702 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 A weak cold front will move south through the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday and stall to our south in the Carolinas. Over the next 36 hours there is good agreement and little spread in the ensemble members that an upper level trough will be reinforced across New England. This subtle deepening will allow a weak cold front to move toward our area today.
Dewpoints were in the low 70s for most of the area and winds were light and variable. High temperatures today are expected to range from the low 80s east where more cloud cover is likely, to the upper 80s in north-central KS where more sunshine and drier conditions are expected. Weak troughing aloft looks to occur from the lower Midwest into the southeastern US until the upper ridge regains strength over the area midweek. As the ridge re-establishes itself, a noticeable warming trend will occur by mid and late week when temps could reach the century mark in central KS. It is not out of the question visibilities drop to IFR or lower given the high amount of moisture in the boundary layer.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley today through tonight as the 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep South Texas. /issued 341 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas and deep South Texas today through Sunday. Highs Sunday will be slightly warmer than today.
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will keep conditions quiet and very warm this weekend, with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. After a partly to mostly sunny morning, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the higher elevations of the NY Susquehanna region and into the hills of Northeast PA. High pressure moves into the area tonight, leading to quiet weather with mostly clear skies. High pressure will be in control for Sunday, leading to mostly sunny skies.
Otherwise, high pressure will lead to warm and mainly dry conditions for the start of the upcoming week. No changes in the high temperatures for today, still expect them to top out between 90-95 degrees. The upper level ridging will build a bit more to the northeast across our area through the day on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will again be mostly in the lower 90s.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below More of the same today, with continued hot weather under the influence of the mid/upper ridge. High temperatures look to again top out in the 88-92 degree range, although dewpoints look to mix out into the low/mid 60s in most areas. This will keep us below Heat Advisory criteria, with most spots seeing max heat indices in the low 90s this afternoon.
724 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Weak high pressure over the region today will lead to mostly dry and quiet Independence Day. The cold front will finish its southward push across the area Sunday night while the upper low scoots by just to our east.
612 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Quiet conditions currently reign across the CWA early this morning, with upper air and satellite data showing ridging remaining the main feature. This ridging extends roughly from the NM/TX/Mex border area north-northeastward through the Central Plains. set up between low pressure spinning near the WA/Can border and troughing along the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure is draped NE-SW through the heart of the area, bringing light/variable winds CWA-wide.
313 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Synoptic Setup: Hot High pressure runns from the Desert Southwest to the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a pacific trough sits over southern British Columbia. Main flow is expected to last through the forecast with the occasional burst of warmer weather sprinkled in for about 12 to 24 hours at a time.
449 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Current surface map shows weak trof across western North Dakota into eastern Wyoming. with eastward shift of surface trof through this afternoon. Moisture rich boundary layer along the surface trof pushes MLCAPE above 2500J/KG across much of western South Dakota.
Light and variable winds will continue across Lake Michigan through the weekend as weak high pressure of 30. Waves will remain on the low end through this period.
Weak low pressure both aloft and at the surface will aid in convective development once again across the region today. Heat indices this afternoon will peak in the 100 to 105 degree range, so be sure to stay hydrated and take breaks from the sun in cooler, shaded areas.
Our CWA will maintain under the influence of this low through Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures will climb to near 90 again before the convection kicks in and may result in peak heat index values in the lower 100s. /22/ A wet weather pattern exists for much of this week as the region will remain under troughing aloft. By mid to late week, the pattern changes to where the upper ridge over the west starts to expand farther east and encroach on our region. Afternoon convection should still be possible but high temperatures will begin to creep back up into the lower 90s.
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Upper ridge axis remains in place from the southwest states into the northern Plains. With less persistence lower cloud in place, expect slightly warmer temps in eastern areas.