Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 233 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ A cold front pushed through the region early this morning while a strong upper trough swings through the Plains. Rain chances will continue to decrease as we head toward the evening hours as the upper trough shifts east. The theme of winter-like temperatures will continue tonight as overnight lows drop to near or below freezing in most locations. The upper trough will exit to the east by tomorrow as weak upper ridging builds over the western ConUS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO.
251 PM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF DALLAS. WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP TO FREEZING FOR THE USUAL SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
MSAS ANALYSIS AS OF WRITING INDICATES 3 HRLY PRESSURE RISES OF NEARLY 8MB ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO TEXAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO ABOVE FREEZING. MANY AREAS PROBABLY WON/T FALL BELOW FREEZING. A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. PLAN ON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40S.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS A LITTLER MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND COULD PULL SOME CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY BEHIND AN UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING THE ERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW MRNG WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD PRESSURE FALLS TAKING PLACE IN EASTERN WYOMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROF IN CENTRAL WYOMING.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW. /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY OVER THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE LOWER LEVEL COOL A FEW DEGREES A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
THE 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MS. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR. AND A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH NE INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT. FLIGHT WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN LOUISIANA STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE THRU NRN MS INTO WRN TN. A STRONG BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 05-09Z.
558 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 Increasing winds tonight as high pressure quickly loses ground to a developing storm system to the SW. Even where the snow starts to dominate NW of a line from Taylorville to CMI after midnight, the temperatures will be just above freezing with little to no frost depth remaining in the ground. Temps through the rest of the week will be on the cooler side of what we've been seeing but by the weekend, temps will warm up into the 50s.
Bands of light to moderate rain continue along/south of the I-44 corridor in association with strong upper low moving over the ARKLATX region. Strong/gusty north winds will also continue on backside of low pressure system. Kept snow out of the FYV/XNA/ROG TAF sites this evening given the lower elevations, however this will need to be closely monitored this evening. Gradient will continue to strengthen over the area into the early morning hours before the low shifts further eastward. The exception will be the highest terrain of NW AR and far SE OK where conditions are already supportive of a sleet and snow mix per public reports. will allow accumulations in the highest elevations.
355 PM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 High pressure will deliver dry and mild conditions through the rest of the work week.
528 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER OVER SE TX.
A strong upper level low in Northeast Texas was moving east this afternoon. No snowfall is expected through the evening hours as temperatures remain above well freezing. Also, colder temperatures along the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau could come into play.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TO END ALL SNOW AND CLEAR THE SKIES. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL CREATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
RADARS SHOWING A TAD CONVECTIVE LOOK AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF COAST. THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
730 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE MID TO UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT YIELDING OVERNIGHT LOWS COLDER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MIXES OUT THE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
650 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
922 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BUT A LINE SEGMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST LA AND SOUTHWEST MS. /ISSUED 518 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
852 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIVING THE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS MOVED EAST INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW. /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY OVER THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE LOWER LEVEL COOL A FEW DEGREES A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD COME AFTER 09Z WHEN THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BECOMES POSITIONED NEAR CHATTANOOGA.
OUR VAD IS NW 20-40KTS ON CLIMB AND INCREASING SPEED FROM THE SW ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL JUST UNDER 7KFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCOUR THE CLOUDS FM W TO E EARLY TO MIDDAY. /ISSUED 251 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ DEEP UPPER LOW MAKING A QUICKER PASSAGE ACROSS EAST TX. STG COLD FRONT WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND WAS MOVG SOUTH OF I-20 IN NE TX. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO REMAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY WKND WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S DURING THE INTERIM.
WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF A BROADENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS EAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL REINFORCE COOLER AIR PUSHING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING OFF THE WARM UP FOR ONE MORE DAY. AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AMPLIFIED PATTERN INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER 48 CONSISTING OF L/W RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND.
MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE SITES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
1214 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR ONLY VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
DOMINATED BY THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS BLANKETING THE STATE: ALL MRNG PENINSULA RAOBS MEASURED PWAT VALUES BTWN 2. SFC/LOW LVL HI PRES RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING WELL SEAWARD WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THEN SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SERN WY AND NORTHEASTERN CO. TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT FALL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES C BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT TOP OF PIKES PEAK AND OTHER HIGH POINTS IN THE SAWATCH COULD SEE A LIGHT SNOWFALL BY EARLY WED.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES UNDER A BROAD SHIELD OF SMOKE THAT HAS GATHERED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD AND DRY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
821 AM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
853 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AS OF MID MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING LATER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY GET BRUSHED BY THE LEAD TROUGH WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES.
WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC THAT TEMPS WILL MAKE THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO SET IN WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
/ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MCS IS AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT IS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS DISLODGING THE SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION A SECONDARY WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWNWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MORNING FROM THE WEST.
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A MOIST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE.
820 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 THE SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HIGH MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL HOLD A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.
717 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
ALBEIT WEAKENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 95 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THRU WED/WED NIGHT. WPC TRACKS THE LOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR KMSP BY 00Z WED. WILL BE ON THE COOL/NW SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTIVE/HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY. A DECENT LATE-SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A TASTE OF FALL FOR WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS SLIPPED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. WARMER AND SUNNY CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST OF MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MAINLY CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE 48 HOURS.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A VERY WEAK SHEAR AXIS CUTTING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF COAHUILA WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED TO 20-25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BUT MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED INLAND.
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. HGTS SLOWLY FALL AS THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE COOLING EACH DAY.
1101 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, INCREASING IN CHANCES AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON, PARTICULARLY NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS DECREASING A FEW DEGREES TODAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DIGGING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. FORMING A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE IT HOOKS NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE. GENERAL CONSENSUS REMAINS WITH TRACKING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRECEDED BY THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME BREAKS BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL LINES OF STORMS.
1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
1001 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2015 DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LIKE TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
Main focus in the near term is the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially late tonight through Wednesday night, as a seasonally strong mid level trough approaches from the Plains. Starting with today, the weak upper low responsible for the mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity the last few days has shifted east of the region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will diminish from west to east Wednesday night as a cold front passes through the area.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE FINE WARM WARM WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
A ridge of high pressure has continued to build over the Northern Rockies today, allowing for a very pleasant afternoon. With the exception for a few clouds from moisture streaming through the ridge tomorrow, the rest of the week looks quite nice.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE 70S. ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY. MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED, WEAK, COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK. A JET MAX MOVING INTO TEXAS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVE IN. A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS. A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER OH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY OVER THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE LOWER LEVEL COOL A FEW DEGREES A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
402 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
/issued 310 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ Strong upper trough diving down across NM and TX today will push east on Wednesday as West Coast ridge begins to build into the area. Have a cold front currently moving through the area. Today will be much cooler with cloudy skies and a gusty north wind.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AOA 20 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN.
A COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS CONFINED TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN HOOVER DAM AND LAKE HAVASU CITY.
343 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
104 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND PERMIT LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
/issued 456 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Windy conditions are expected today, as the pressure gradient tightens behind a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure, which will be departing the region. With increased cloud cover and cold air advection on the backside of the storm system, highs will be cooler than yesterday, with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.