Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
511 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A BOUNDARY/FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WYOMING AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THEN ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER TO THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. THERE WAS ALSO A LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MINNESOTA-ONTARIO BORDER WITH A TROUGH DRAPED INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS/GEFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
/ISSUED 222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
Benign weather will continue today as a weak ridge of high pressure lies over the Northern Rockies. A few clouds will round the top of the ridge and drift overhead from around Lost Trail Pass northward. Continued subsidence with the ridge may cause a few valley inversions to persist, particularly in the Missoula Valley.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR QUIET CONDITIONS. BUT MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE AREA WITH CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUIET A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD SPILLING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER THEN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE MORNING TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK.
633 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE.
411 AM MST MON NOV 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS.
THERE IS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING EASTERN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 30S.
SOME SPOTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE URBAN CORES OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN LOW LYING AREAS. OFF THE ESCARPMENT SOME AREAS WERE APPROACHING FREEZING AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AND WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A TOUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. TO AROUND 40 THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES AWAY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE WARMER AIR SHOULD TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
553 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING.
941 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. STRATOCU DECK WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
853 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT SCOOTS PAST THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 345 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015/ CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THUS FROST WILL BE OBSERVED UNTIL TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. BUT AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THE EVENING OF THANKSGIVING.
551 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
635 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OFFERING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
509 AM MST MON NOV 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS.
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE 30S WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
/ISSUED 309 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015/ Warming trend is well underway with highs expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE APPROACHING THE LOWER 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THE MID 30S ELSEWHERE OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN U.
A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TOWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 31 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 29 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 30 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 27 52 30 / 0 0 0 0.
944 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A northwest upper flow this morning is forecast to become zonal across the Central and Southern Plains as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest tonight. West to southwesterly winds will become light south to southeast as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies today. Southerly winds will increase tonight as the low pressure deepens and pressure gradient increases. Highs today should top out from the mid 50s in far northeast Kansas to the lower 60s near central Kansas. On Tuesday a strong upper low tracks over the Pacific northwest and along the west coast. Southwest flow aloft develops across the plains in response to this upper low out west.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WARM UP AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL COME TO AN END. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND.
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
748 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT WIDESPREAD MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME.
1046 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. 850 MB COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIXED OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ. INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING.
EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS PARKED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING NEEDED TO KICK THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT.
1200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES IN A STATUS QUO WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ALABAMA ON THE ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF FOR FRIDAY AND POPS SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY BASED AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MID AFTN. AND WITH DEW PTS PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF FRONT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROF IN WEST AL THIS MORNING IS FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. AS TROF PUSHES EAST. STEFKOVICH/ISSUED 454 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/ THE PATTERN CONTINUES IN A STATUS QUO WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ALABAMA ON THE ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF FOR FRIDAY AND POPS SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY BASED AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
1146 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
1242 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
945 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
759 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. 850 MB COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE FORECAST AREA SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.
AND WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED IN ID/MT EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN AXIS OF 850MB 8C+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDED NORTWHARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH A DRY POCKET UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM EASTERN NEB/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE INDICATED TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. UPPER=LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
945 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 TODAY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT WIDESPREAD MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
TROUGH WILL BE FOCUS FRO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO KS/EASTERN NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND A LARGE BUT RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEAK PV ANOMALIES MOVES OVERHEAD. SO INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
1036 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
944 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
743 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. 850 MB COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING.
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW POSITIONED ALONG THE ID/WY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS.
1220 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH SE ID. W WY AND N UT TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST UT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER OVER WESTERN CO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS UPPER JET ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. BY EARLY FRI EVENING THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND ITS SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PLUNGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO THE FRONT.
DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM IT UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH AND BRINGS IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LOWS WILL BE COOLER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NW WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CONCENTRATED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 65 86 67 / 70 40 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 64 84 65 / 60 30 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 64 84 65 / 60 30 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 85 63 / 40 20 30 20.
705 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A STRAY SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK. RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THINK NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN KILX CWA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK CAP. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IDAHO WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WESTERN PIEDMONT TROF TO PERHAPS ELEVATE POPS A BIT IN THE TRIAD.
Otherwise, it will be warm and a bit muggy with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpts in the 60s.
A REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND THE LOW NEAR 40N 150W.
Yet another upper level short wave trough will then slowly move east across the central/southern Plains on Friday.
MOSTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AS ABOVE 2000 FEET THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR. AT THE SAME TIME THE L/W TROUGH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BROADEN OUT SOME AND WORK EAST AND IN RESPONSE S/W RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOCATION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE COASTAL MS WHERE THE RIDGING WILL HAVE THE LEAST IMPACT. S/W RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SLOWLY. BY SUN THE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
A cold front will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points in from the south. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning Friday evening and during the overnight.