Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
401 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Warm and humid weather will continue today and tomorrow, with a cold front expected to bring thunderstorms on Friday and cooler weather for the weekend. Friday and Friday night will bring the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms during the seven day forecast. Although the system's primary cold front will not cross the region until the overnight hours, showers could move into the forecast area as early as Friday afternoon. Timing of the cold front itself will be critical for determining just how much instability will be available for severe storms, but modest unidirectional wind shear should bring a chance for severe weather across the entire forecast area.
Stacked ridging overhead producing significant subsidence for early July in a light wind flow regime. Hot and humid conditions will continue as deep layer ridging holds over the region. These temperatures combined with the high dew points will cause heat indices to once again approach the Heat Advisory criteria of 108 or higher, but like today not expecting these high values to be widespread so will not be issuing an advisory at this time.
305 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Only changes tonight from last night is temperatures are running a degree or two warmer and winds were stronger from the southwest. the upper level ridge over the ARLATEX and Ozarks will shift east over the Midsouth.
Another hot and humid day in the offing with persistence of a deep layer ridge over the region. Ridging aloft will again act to limit convection with isolated activity mainly occurring along boundary collisions in the late afternoon across the northern sections. Persistent subtropical ridge in place over the central peninsula will be nudged swd by a wave exiting the mid atlc seaboard during Fri.
A cold front on Friday will usher in cooler and drier air for the weekend.
with the highest potential of stronger storms over eastern portions. Ridge will be over region aloft and southerly llvl flow will prevail over the Plains. Deep mid lvl trough fcst to move into pacific nw. There will likely be a dryline over the region given the location and the strength of the trough. Given the location of the mid lvl trough and increasing flow aloft. Trough will move across the region Sun nite and a cool front will likely come down the plains Mon morning. Winds will increase out of the southwest at the terminals tomorrow ahead of a cold front which will impact KCOS and KPUB after 00z.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb ridging will remain entrenched over the RGV through Friday with a subsident airmass maintaining hot and rain free conditions.
It is possible as additional clouds move south that these cooler areas will stabilize and possibly warm a deg but it is hard to say at this point.
412 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 A surface pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
Upper trof moving across eastern Montana early this morning with a few showers lifting into southern Saskatchewan. Scattered showers are possible through the morning as the low moves east. Upper ridge builds into the state behind the departing low pressure.
302 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Current surface map shows cold front moving through western South Dakota. Warmer on Friday with return flow on back side of high.
Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with multiple opportunities for deep moist convection as a vigorous mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Intermountain region and into the Northern Rockies.
320 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 A weak cold front will pass through southern Wyoming and extreme northern Colorado today. The associated upper trough will push the thermal ridge that is over the area to the east and allow a degree or two of cooling today across the rest of the forecast area. On Friday the flow over the area begins to be influenced by the next bigger trough developing off the northwest coast. The upper ridge will build just east of the area, putting eastern UT and western CO under increasing southwest flow aloft. The next low pressure system will strengthen and move onshore Sat, then will move into the northern Great Basin on Sun. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures will follow for early in the next work week.
At the surface, a lee cyclone was analyzed over southeast Montana with an associated baroclinic zone becoming better defined from the cyclone southeast through central Nebraska into central Iowa. Increasing height falls ahead of the northern Rockies low/trough will combine with moist, upslope flow in the low levels to initiate scattered storms this afternoon over the High Plains. For now, we will maintain the highest POPs across our eastern counties in closer proximity to the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent.
423 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, A Western Atlantic ridge remains draped across the southern half of the sunshine state and the adjacent atlantic and gulf waters.
245 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Upper air pattern continues a suppressed ridge across the southern conus with nearly zonal flow across the high plains. A trough/low is moving east near the Montana/Canadian border. At the surface a low was analyzed across northeast Wyoming with a warm front/stationary boundary to the southeast across the panhandle of Nebraska then curves east across southern Nebraska. A cold front trails from the low to the southwest. First is the low as it pushes towards the Black Hills.
However, thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain, spread east and possibly affect some area terminals late this afternoon/ evening. /issued 332 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/ Upper level high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures at record or near record highs this afternoon and Friday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
An unseasonably cold low pressure system will move through the region over the weekend for cool temperatures and more rain showers. The weak ridge of high pressure will provide a dry period for the next 24 hours, before the next storm system arrives. /rfox 06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies and winds less than 10kt are expected overnight at all TAF sites as high pressure settles over the region tonight. This lowering of the cloud decks will spread across all TAF sites after 00z.
There may be a few hours of 10-20 mph north winds, but the main change will to bring in slightly cooler air. Upper level ridging over Colorado and the desert Southwest will keep a warm airmass in place at low levels and weak westerly flow aloft over the region. Persistent and weak low pressure at the surface is going to allow low level moisture and instability from the Central Plains to move into eastern Colorado at times.
The semi-permanent subtropical ridge of high pressure over the southern states will be more firmly reestablished over the vicinity for the short term period. Latest calculations agree with this placement and the advisory will be continued unadjusted (although locations east of the advisory should be only slightly cooler than neighbors further west). The broad mid/upper ridge which has persisted over the Deep South/North Gulf is forecast to break down slightly by this weekend, allowing weak disturbances which were previously being shunted around the CWA to have greater influence through the period.
Have made adjustments to the grids to account for the higher pops over the next few hours. with increased ridging and a weak northwest flow aloft developing by Friday morning.
347 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 A surface pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued across central and eastern portions of the area early this morning, associated with a weak cold front sweeping across the region. Shower coverage will gradually decrease from west to east through the morning hours as the front and its' parent upper low shift east of the area. High pressure will begin to build over the region today with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected with westerly winds. Heights continue to build into Friday, with the ridge axis eventually shifting east into the Dakotas, and southwest flow aloft progged to develop over the area as an upper low moves onshore into the Pacific NW.
334 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Today expected to be hot and dry, very similar to Wed, as the upper ridge increases its influence on our weather. Ridge will begin to shift ewd/weaken tonight/Friday, as a weak cold front associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes region sinks swd towards our region. Back-door cold front will continue to dip swd as we move into the weekend, which looks to continue to disrupt the ongoing summer heat. Upper ridge will reinforce itself over NM, setting up a weak nw flow pattern over the region. This general pattern will continue through early next work week, as a series of disturbances move across the lower MS River valley along the nern periphery of the ridge.
618 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 A surface pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
332 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 Upper level high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures at record or near record highs this afternoon and Friday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
509 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Low pressure will approach the area today then track south of the region tonight.
some short term model guidance is attempting to hold together the convection presently developing over the high plains and propagating it eastward across the local area during the early evening hours. Cooler air will continue to settle in across the entire forecast area Thursday night through Friday.
Cooler weather will arrive this weekend with breezy to windy conditions. This in combination with a nearly 2000 foot marine layer will allow for a subtle cooling trend today, with daytime high temperatures generally between 1 and 3 degrees cooler than normal.
At the surface, low pressure is located across Northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana, with a warm frontal boundary into the Nebraska panhandle. Upper level trof over the Northern Rockies will slowly shifting east late this afternoon, with southwest upper flow over the forecast area. Between the incoming high and departing low pressure systems, breezy northwest winds will develop, mainly across the South Dakota plains. High temperatures will be cooler, in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Return flow sets up through the day, bringing warmer temps to the area Friday. Could see isolated storms develop within the theta-e ridge ahead of a dryline pushing across NE WY into SW SD.
601 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Low pressure will approach the area today then track south of the region tonight.
On Friday, southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper level trough of low pressure will begin to increase moisture into the region.
A very unusual cold and wet pattern moves in this afternoon as a deepening upper level trough brings several fronts through the region with rain through much of the weekend.
456 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
312 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
300 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOWS.
HOWEVER GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT.
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP. WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
256 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.
200 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. UNTIL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASES. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND CERTAINLY DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. BUT STILL COOLER CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA TODAY. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL MANITOBA.
349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
1135 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LVL RIDGE LIES JUST TO OUR WEST. WITH 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER MTN TOPS. SFC WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. AND 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN.
AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE. ASSOCD WITH AN UPR TROF WORKING THRU THE REGION. ANOTHER UPR TROF/CDFNT WL DROP SWD THRU THE FA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TNGT. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
658 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
301 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT A FLAT RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL START TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. UPPER LEVEL FORCING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING.
A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
However, an unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in areas east of the MS River on Thursday.
HOWEVER GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT.
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ HI AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER FOR TODAY WHICH WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL FOR MAY. RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY PROVIDING SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE CLOSED LOW ENCROACHES ON OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
PART OF A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND THE LOW 70FS NORTH TO MID 70FS SOUTH. A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. UPPER LEVEL FORCING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING.
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 Current satellite imagery and surface obs show a weak cold front moving through the Midwest. Surface temperatures warmed into the upper 50s ahead of the cold front, but will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s once the front passes through. A few cumulus clouds will be possible today and with decent mixing of the lower levels, temperatures should quickly rebound with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Upper level ridge positioned over the inter-mountain west and High Plains will dominate the weather through the remainder of the work week before breaking down as a large trough moves onshore and into the Great Basin.
149 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 3-4 C.
257 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RIGHT ON HEELS OF WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. NOT EVEN A HINT OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FROPA UNDER DEEP NW FLOW AS DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDING DOWN FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY. AMPLIFIED RIDGING BETWEEN THIS LOW. THIS PATTERN MEANS THAT ONCE THE RIDGE IS FINALLY DISPLACED BY UPPER LOW OFF WEST COAST. THE LOW WILL STICK AROUND FOR AWHILE.
331 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 Latest surface analysis showed the broad area of high pressure from the Rockies into the the Central Plains. Pressure gradient will gradually weaken this evening as the high pressure moves slowly eastward. Lows temps tonight will fall into the lower 40s.
HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ A low pressure system was moving eastward across the Great Lake region this afternoon with a trailing weak cold front positioned over the Ohio River valley to Northern Arkansas to Northeast Oklahoma. Slightly cooler conditions look to continue Thursday. a couple degrees cooler than today.
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ THIS MORNING STARTED OFF A BIT COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER HOWEVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND AN COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TODAYS HIGH TEMPS WILL STRIVE TO REACH BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. JMS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHRA ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED -TSRA BTWN 04/21Z-05/02Z.
223 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER TROUGH SHARPENING OVER THE MID WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WORKING DOWN BACKSIDE AND WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF MID STATE ON THURSDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLATEAU.
103 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA.
300 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CO HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 80 ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. AND HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST APPROACHES CENTRAL CA COAST LINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY.
244 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO TEXAS BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX LATE TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE NIGHTS WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.