Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Very dry air continues to spread across the region with the center of a strong ridge slowly tracking eastward. There will be a weak surge of upper level clouds that will spill over the ridge over northeast Colorado into the evening. As the ridge moves east this will help to scatter those out leaving mostly sunny conditions for Thursday. Smoke impacts will continue with the low level flow combined with the transport winds that will mix down during the day.
Temperatures as of noon ranged from the low to upper 70s, with comfortable dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Some of the more aggressive CAMs including the HRRR and NAMnest attempt to develop rain showers in the CU field from western Wisconsin to northeast Iowa, but this is likely overdone given the amount of dry air to overcome in the low-levels. Expected a persistence forecast through tomorrow as the high pressure over the Dakotas continued building southeast into the Midwest. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 50s, with PM highs Thursday climbing into the low to upper 70s.
146 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon then move slowly southeast through central North Carolina tonight and Thursday. Drier and cooler high pressure pressure will build into the region thereafter. Once this moves out into VA, another round of scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening with peak heating and an approaching cold front out of the Ohio Valley. Lingering showers/low cloudiness and cooler Thursday. The cold front is expected to stretch from NE to SW through central NC at 12z/Thursday beginning the day.
Light northeasterly flow will prevail until a cold front slips through the area overnight and early Thursday. Cool temperatures overnight for early September (upper 50s-mid 60s) then warming back up into the lower to mid 90s Thursday and then back down into the 60s Thursday night.
Good news is on the way, as a cold front approaches the area tonight and moves through during the morning on Thursday. This will turn the winds northwesterly with some cooler and much drier air moving into the area. A shift arrives tomorrow morning with the passage of a weak surface cold front, however, and northwest winds will develop by tomorrow afternoon.
254 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For those tired of the heat and humidity, some good news is ahead as a sfc cold front nears the Tennessee Valley and will move through the area overnight. Otherwise, expect clearing skies through the early morning hours and lows ranging front the lower 60s across northern AL to upper 50s across southern middle TN. High pressure over the mid MS and lower OH River valleys will keep these mild and dry conditions anchored in place, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s. Will be a great early taste of fall for those looking forward to cooler weather.
157 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 19z surface analysis high over western SD/ND with trough from central MT into northeast CO. Water vapour had ridge centered over UT with some CI spilling into the CWA per IR loop. Disposition of upper ridge main concern this forecast period. Tonight, modest low level jet develops over northeast WY as low level thermal ridge expands into the CWA.
There is also a weak cold front making its way south through the Big Country, as well as an outflow boundary from convection that was northeast of the area this morning.
338 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight into Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s Thursday and then warm into the 80s this weekend. Gradual thermal moderation into the weekend as Great Basin mid level ridge builds eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley.
On the backside of the departing upper-level trough, satellite shows mostly clear skies aside from a cu field affecting parts of the area under the northwesterly flow regime. At the surface, a high pressure continues to casually drift across the region, and as it slides directly overhead the breezy winds will cease leading to a quiet evening and overnight period.
1135 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The H500 hand analysis map is showing ~600dam ridge centered over the Great Basin. The high center will slowly translate to southeast of the 4 Corners over the next 48 hours and keep hot. Very dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains firmly in place overhead, also allowing smoke to remain trapped.
The lower levels of the atmosphere is some what dry so pinpointing if it will actually rain at a terminal will be iffy.
Various vorticity maxima within 500 mb trough over the region should continue to allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop in northern and central Wisconsin, shifting into northern portions of the area and lingering until early this evening. High pressure passing to the southwest and south of the region later tonight into Thursday night will bring a period of quiet weather. Highs Thursday should remain pleasant in the lower to middle 70s, with a lake breeze developing in the afternoon near Lake Michigan.
244 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Water vapor this afternoon shows an amplifed flow across the CONUS with strong ridging in place over the Rockies due to high pressure aloft over the American southwest. A deep trough was found across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. due to low pressure over NE Ontario. Surface analysis showed high pressure in place over the northern plains. models suggest the upper low and associated cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes will drift northeast. allowing the continuation of cooler NW Canadaian flow to Central Indiana.
342 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 High pressure at the sfc and aloft will be the main weather features that will have control of our local conditions through this forecast period. We will continue to retain that trend in the forecast, although a bit cooler readings, down into the mid 40s, could be possible especially east. The upper ridge will slowly build overhead through the day as well. Warmer temperatures will also be the result, especially across our western zones, with highs expected to top out in the 80s there with 70s elsewhere. Any fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon will be confined to our far western areas where breezier southerly winds and the lowest relative humidity values will reside.
Upper level analysis places high over Utah, with ridge stretching northward into Montana, while low slides through eastern Ontario. On Thursday, quiet weather expected as ridge over the region continues to be the dominate feature. Temperatures will be warmer, with western locations climbing into the 80s to around 90.
Today through Thursday The northwest flow will become more westerly today, as the strong ridge flattens a bit. The ridge axis will pass over the state this evening.
A cold front is approaching the area from the northwest, which will bring chances for SHRA/TSRA, mainly at TYS and TRI near and after sunset. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 82 60 83 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 81 58 81 58 / 40 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 80 57 81 57 / 40 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 78 53 78 53 / 40 0 0 0 0.
233 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Impacts are not expected in the near term as high pressure works eastward into the region. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s to low 50s.
/issued 317 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021/ A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the north- central Gulf of Mexico has a 60 percent chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours as it begins to lift to the NE across the FL panhandle and SE US along a remnant frontal boundary and upper trough.
TC Mindy's remnants will track north of the area, absorbing into a deep trough and associated cold front dipping through the Deep South. Thursday highs will reach the upper 80s north of I-4 to the lower 90s for areas south.
445 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 19z surface analysis high over western SD/ND with trough from central MT into northeast CO. Water vapour had ridge centered over UT with some CI spilling into the CWA per IR loop. Disposition of upper ridge main concern this forecast period. Tonight, modest low level jet develops over northeast WY as low level thermal ridge expands into the CWA.
Atlantic high pressure stretches across about the south half of FL and out over much of the Gulf of Mexico. with the highest amounts confined to north of the I-4 Corridor The bulk of the afternoon showers and storms have pretty much moved beyond the area. High pressure builds in during the weekend with winds veering to easterly.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft will be the main weather features that will have control of our local conditions through this forecast period. We will continue to retain that trend in the forecast, although a bit cooler readings, down into the mid 40s, could be possible especially east. The upper ridge will slowly build overhead through the day as well. Warmer temperatures will also be the result, especially across our western zones, with highs expected to top out in the 80s there with 70s elsewhere. Any fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon will be confined to our far western areas where breezier southerly winds and the lowest relative humidity values will reside.
805 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Aviation - Few Lake Effect Showers This Evening - Cooler than Normal Pattern Until the Weekend - Weekend Warmup - Few Lake Effect Showers This Evening - An amplified upper air pattern persists as deep cyclonic flow sets up over the eastern half of the country.
952 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over Kansas building southward behind the cold front currently across north Texas. High pressure center settles over ern OK/wrn AR tonight, and shifts east of our area Thursday afternoon. Dew points have fallen off nicely across areas north of I-40 in the wake of last night's cold front, a trend that is likely to spread into southeast Oklahoma through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight. Upper level ridging currently over the western United States will build eastward late this week and into the weekend, bringing another stretch of well above normal temperatures to the region.
842 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 High pressure in the Desert Southwest continues to bring Southwest flow advecting CA and OR wildfire smoke into the region. A deep trough will bring a significant shift in weather starting Thursday evening.
Impacts are not expected in the near term as high pressure works eastward into the region. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s to low 50s.
629 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Gusty winds from the north were observed across the region today as a cooler and drier airmass advected in from northern Plains. Another nice day is on tap for Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
752 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Rain chances taper off this evening behind a cold front.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with drier and seasonable temps as high pressure builds across the Midwest over the next few days. Various vorticity maxima within 500 mb trough over the region should continue to allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop in northern and central Wisconsin, shifting into northern portions of the area and lingering until early this evening. High pressure passing to the southwest and south of the region later tonight into Thursday night will bring a period of quiet weather. Highs Thursday should remain pleasant in the lower to middle 70s, with a lake breeze developing in the afternoon near Lake Michigan.
1039 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A slow moving cold front will continue to move through the region overnight.
549 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Quite the pleasant afternoon across the region with temperatures in the low 80s, very low humidity, and a northerly breeze.
648 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 High pressure will bring clear skies to area TAF sites this evening. A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Light northeasterly flow will prevail until a cold front slips through the area overnight and early Thursday. Cool temperatures overnight for early September (upper 50s-mid 60s) then warming back up into the lower to mid 90s Thursday and then back down into the 60s Thursday night.
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region with an upper level ridge centered over UT.
Satellite imagery still shows the upper level trough axis to our west while latest surface analysis has the cold front across our northwest zones. Local radars have gone quiet and am not expecting the cold front to set off any additional convection tonight so have removed pops. Temperatures are on target for now provided the cold front makes it as far south as forecast by morning. /22/ Prior discussion below: This afternoon through Thursday: increasingly dry and subsident northwest flow will send a cold front through the forecast area as we go through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Beyond that, we'll see high pressure and a much more comfortable airmass build over the region with temperatures and humidity falling below climatological normals.
For those tired of the heat and humidity, some good news is ahead as a sfc cold front nears the Tennessee Valley and will move through the area overnight. Otherwise, expect clearing skies through the early morning hours and lows ranging front the lower 60s across northern AL to upper 50s across southern middle TN. High pressure over the mid MS and lower OH River valleys will keep these mild and dry conditions anchored in place, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s. Will be a great early taste of fall for those looking forward to cooler weather.
CIMSS mean-layer analyses center a deep ridge complex just to the southeast of the Keys. A weak and broad ridge will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the week, resulting in light to gentle breezes.
/22/ This afternoon through Thursday: increasingly dry and subsident northwest flow will send a cold front through the forecast area as we go through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Beyond that, we'll see high pressure and a much more comfortable airmass build over the region with temperatures and humidity falling below climatological normals.
654 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight into Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s Thursday and then warm into the 80s this weekend. Gradual thermal moderation into the weekend as Great Basin mid level ridge builds eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley.
Surface cold front has moved through the Middle Tennessee terminals with NW/NNW winds prevailing now.
759 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Moisture associated with TS Mindy passing south of the area, combined with the approach of a cold front from the northwest, will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of Thursday as the cold front crosses the area.
A weak high pressure ridge will enter region Thursday morning with weak northeast winds expected from late morning until early afternoon. Subsidence due to high pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to persist through the short term period resulting in drier than normal conditions with PWAT's to around 1.
Water vapor this afternoon shows an amplifed flow across the CONUS with strong ridging in place over the Rockies due to high pressure aloft over the American southwest. A deep trough was found across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. due to low pressure over NE Ontario. Surface analysis showed high pressure in place over the northern plains. models suggest the upper low and associated cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes will drift northeast. allowing the continuation of cooler NW Canadaian flow to Central Indiana.
Hot inland temperatures will trend cooler during the second half of the week.
355 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Upper ridging across the western U. THis will lead to mainly dry and warmer weather conditions.
A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front continues its journey to the southeast through Kentucky.
By Thursday, the thunderstorm threat increases across the region as the upper level low approaches the Oregon coast. Right now, most models are suggesting convective available potential energy(CAPE) around 100 to 200 J/kg, which is on the low side. These CAPE values are sufficient for thunderstorm development, yet are on the lower side than what we would like to see for 100+ CG strikes. In addition, the high resolution rapid refresh model(HRRR) is not forecasting high reflectivity(>40dbz) returns on Thursday afternoon. Heading into Thursday night, the low approaches the coast and areas aloft begin to show stronger divergence. Right now, we just have a slight chance of storms over the Cascades, northern California and east of the Cascades overnight since CAPE values are still on the low side.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ The cold front has pushed through North Texas and is currently just south of I-20 as evident by a roughly 10 degree drop in dew points. Dry air, mostly clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to tumble this evening with most across North Texas bottoming out in the low 60s by tomorrow morning. Light winds, abundant sunshine, and highs in the low 90s are forecast tomorrow.
527 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Temperatures are above normal as a strong ridge of high pressure remains centered overhead and stretches across the entire western half of the country. Unfortunately, this also means smoke from the numerous wildfires burning across NorCal, the PacNW and Intermountain West remains trapped underneath this high and is recirculating around it. The lows are cooler as well and haven't been quite as warm, so adjusted both highs and lows down a couple degrees and blended with the cooler end of guidance to account for this. This high pressure area will remain directly overhead through Thursday so do not anticipate much change to the forecast day to day. An approaching low pressure system off the PacNW coast gradually shifts the center of high pressure from the Four Corners to the spine of the Southern Rockies.
Pockets of clouds were drifting southeast off Lake Michigan in association with a weak wave traversing through the parent upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes. The upper trough will also remain a factor at least for today before it begins to lift out to the northeast into New England by Friday. The weak waves tracking through the trough will remain to the northeast of the region but enough cold air aloft will remain across the Ohio Valley on the back side of the trough for a decent diurnally driven cu field to form for this afternoon over much of the forecast area. As the upper trough departs Friday and mid level heights begin to recover as a result.
140 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Aviation - Few Lake Effect Showers This Evening - Cooler than Normal Pattern Until the Weekend - Weekend Warmup - Few Lake Effect Showers This Evening - An amplified upper air pattern persists as deep cyclonic flow sets up over the eastern half of the country. - Cooler than Normal Pattern Until the Weekend - This persistent upper troughing will last into Friday before upper flow turns more zonal. Therefore, continued cooler temperatures are expected again tomorrow thanks to northwesterly flow. - Weekend Warmup - The overall pattern will shift again on Friday as our deep trough currently dominating the eastern half of the country shifts east and the flow turns zonal.
More mid and high clouds will replace the lower marine clouds along the coast, with summery weather forecast to prevail through the week. A sprawling high pressure area centered over Utah this evening, is forecast to sink slowly SE, reorienting the winds aloft over SoCal from east to southeast. By the weekend, the ridge over the West will expand east-west along the southern tier of States, as a weak trough approaches the West Coast.
(Today and tonight) The cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau last night has settled in across the Hill Country. In it's wake, high pressure has carried a drier airmass into west central Texas. At the upper levels, a strong 500mb ridge across the Great Basin should start to nose it's way southeastward into Texas. This should allow high temperatures to reach nicely into the low to mid 90s today under clear to partly cloudy skies.
250 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 As the mean long wave trof departs to the east, we'll slowly transition to a more high pressure dominated atmosphere.
Weak upper level trough moving through the area Friday for more cloud cover and cooler temps but little in the way of showers.
WV imagery indicates fairly deep anticyclone extending from the Great Basin/Four Corners region northward through southern AB/SK, supporting the very warm and dry air mass that will slowly shift eastward onto the Plains in coming days. Deep ridging shifts eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours, bringing with it 850 mb to 700 mb temperatures above the 90th percentile per the NAEFS. Ridge axis shifts to the High Plains by Friday, with the NAEFS projecting 99th percentile or higher 850 mb and 700 mb temperatures across much of central Nebraska by the afternoon/evening hours. Although upper-level cloud cover may increase as the northeastern periphery of the ridge attempts to weaken, mostly clear skies should facilitate deep mixing potential.
1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 300 PM CDT Northwesterly winds persist as the trough moves off to our east, and high pressure moves in from the west. A decent gradient combined with ample sunshine and good mixing in the lower atmosphere will tap into winds near 700 mb, with gusts in the upper 20 kt range at several sites. High pressure moves closer on Thursday, along with some warming in the upper atmosphere.
1008 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 19z surface analysis high over western SD/ND with trough from central MT into northeast CO. Water vapour had ridge centered over UT with some CI spilling into the CWA per IR loop. Disposition of upper ridge main concern this forecast period. Tonight, modest low level jet develops over northeast WY as low level thermal ridge expands into the CWA. Thursday/Friday, strong upper level ridge builds into the northern plains with anomalously warm 700mb temperatures. Trough/dry-line feature will shift eastward onto the western SD plains both Thursday and Friday afternoon with very dry air behind it as well as gusty southwest-northwest winds at times. Looks like another modest low level jet will develop over northeast WY into the higher Black Hills later Thursday night, which will keep temperatures above guidance over the foothills areas.
Upper level trough firmly in place over the Great Lakes today and will pretty much hold through Thursday before constricting/sharpening and getting forced eastward Thursday night into Friday. Dewpoints in the low 50s and upper 60s will then set the stage for another chilly night. The thermal trough will pass over the region on Thursday with 850mb temps down to 6-7C.
Drier air will be moving in behind the cold front as it pulls away.
229 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 An upper level ridge centered over the 4-corners and dominating the pattern over the western CONUS will move slowly to the southeast during the next couple of days with temperatures beginning to increase today in response to the increased heights. Given amount of progged increase in thicknesses, will run toward the higher end of guidance for highs today and lows tonight. Very dry air aloft and subsidence associated with the upper ridge will keep precip chances to a minimum.
239 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021 07Z water vapor shows an upper ridge centered over UT while a closed upper low was located over the southern parts of the Hudson Bay. Surface obs showed high pressure centered over the mid MO river valley with the ridge axis extending south into the Red River valley.
High pressure aloft will maintain hot and dry conditions today and Friday, with mild temperatures expected tonight due to efficient radiational cooling.