Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure /storm/ system now approaching from central MT should bring steadily increasing clouds with scattered rainshowers developing into central and southeast ND by early evening. A rain and snow mix is possible late tonight and early Tuesday morning generally north of the Highway 2 corridor. expect winds turning from the north and increasing as a cold front pushes through behind this low pressure system. Highs should stretch into the mid and upper 40s north and the lower to mid 50s south.
At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to ridge back westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The position of the ridge will keep an east to southeast wind flow in place overnight and into the morning hours tomorrow.
This feature will push a sharp cold front through the forecast area Wed afternoon through Wed night.
/issued 309 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/ Storms have died off early this morning and a developing weak upper level ridge will do a better job of suppressing convection today. The ridge, while weak, will still prevent additional rainfall through the end of the week.
Temperatures this afternoon are in the lower/mid 80s. Abundant Gulf moisture, daytime heating, and more defined SW to NE oriented trough aloft across E Texas to the Western Gulf is expected on Tuesday.
337 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Weak high pressure over Illinois is resulting in fair skies with light winds tending to be from the south. Lows should range from the lower 40s far NE to the upper 40s SW sections and likely mins to be within 3 degrees.
332 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A cold front will move well offshore tonight.
Otherwise, some patchy fog is possible again early to mid morning tomorrow with morning lows in the mid 60s to low 70s rising into the low to mid 80s tomorrow.
A low pressure system moving in from the upper midwest will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday night.
1150 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017 An area of low pressure will be moving over the northern Rockies today causing widespread precipitation for the Pacific northwest reaching Idaho and Montana later today. This low pressure will put an end to our zonal flow as upper level winds shift to the southwest allowing temperatures to climb thanks to warm air advection. On Tuesday, a jet streak will approach from the southwest and will support a cold front at the surface.
155 PM MST Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, lifting the storm track to our north. A series of Pacific weather disturbances will travel through the ridge flow, bringing periods of breezy conditions and passing high clouds. Windy conditions and fire weather concerns may result with temperatures holding in the 90s across the lower elevations. Dry and even warmer conditions are forecast for the weekend as ridging strengthens further. These heights are expected to support lower desert high in the low-mid 90s each day, under mostly clear skies.
159 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will build down over the region from eastern Canada bringing fair but chilly weather tonight through Tuesday night.
241 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the northwest today and crosses the region later tonight giving showers and thunderstorms. Cold front stalls out across Southern West Virginia on Monday morning.
312 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Upper level analysis has upper trof shifting east across the northern CONUS with ridge building across the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central plains with a weak cold front across North Dakota. High pressure will slide to the southeast across the Dakotas with winds slowly becoming southerly after midnight. Weak frontal boundary to the south will lift back north into the area as a warm front during the day as low pressure develops along it across eastern WY. The best chances for rainfall late Monday into Monday night will be mostly east of the Black Hills as low pressure moves quickly across SD during this time.
Temperatures this afternoon are in the lower/mid 80s.
244 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Weak high pressure from the northern plains is bringing cooler and drier air into the region today. Fair skies with temperatures slightly above normal will continue through Monday as the high pressure system moves slowly southeast. Forecast highs and lows should be within 3 degrees of forecast with favored low lying areas tending to be a couple of degrees cooler than forecast north of I-80.
215 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 In the wake of the cold front which pushed through the area early this morning, dry conditions have been observed for most areas through Sunday morning. Building high pressure over southwestern Iowa is generating an expansive area of convergence near 850 hPa, along the northern extent of the residual moist airmass from yesterday. The cold front which pushed through the local area this morning has stalled over southern Missouri underneath weakening flow aloft. Will see mostly dry conditions Monday as weak mid-level ridging returns to the Central Plains, briefly.
Kept the highest pops during the evening toward NW Tennessee. Temps will range from the lower 70s north to 80 south.
238 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur before a cold front pushes through later tonight.
/Tonight through Monday/ High pressure will move east of Iowa with ridging aloft that will provide for another day of plentiful sunshine and very mild temperatures on Monday. Light and variable winds early in the day will become from the southeast in the afternoon with highs in the middle 60s over northern Iowa to the low 70s over southern Iowa.
Cooler and drier air will return behind the front for the first half of the work week. High pressure builds into the area Monday bringing somewhat cooler air.
The ridge axis will settle farther south from SC/GA today to across south GA and northern FL Monday. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds will continue to form but with a little less coverage Monday due to low level ridge across the local area. Very weak upper level troughs will pass overhead bringing waves of cirrus.
The low MVFR cloud deck will linger across the terminals through the rest of the morning.
104 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front extending from Wisconsin into eastern Kansas. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 70s.
By all accounts, the upcoming work week looks to remain very active as a progressive jetstream pattern remains in-place over the lower 48.
/Today through Tonight/ The cold front has passed through central Iowa and high pressure will now build into the state making for a much quieter day today. We will remain in Northwest flow through today so temps will be cooler than we have seen but still normal to slightly above normal for mid-April.
Otherwise, a very complex mesoscale situation is expected this afternoon/tonight with a remnant outflow boundary, cold front, and warm sector precipitation. Confidence not terribly high but relatively strong s/wv trough will approach and should allow initiation late today.
430 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur before a cold front pushes through later tonight.
1206 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will move across the forecast area today. These areas show a modestly deep layer of moisture between 700mb and 500mb along a very weak mid level short wave moving southeastward on the southern side of an upper low to our north. Otherwise with light winds late tonight, trended toward cooler guidance readings such as MOS for lows.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today behind the cool front and with the increased clouds.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates mostly zonal flow across the Southern Appalachians with a trough to the northwest across the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretches from near Chicago to the southwest near Amarillo, TX. The front will make some decent progress to the south during the overnight hours as the trough currently across the Northern Plains moves into the Great Lakes Region. With the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures will be a bit cooler and range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
There are two other areas to monitor for storm formation in the next few hours include 1) convergence along the effective cold front in far northern Oklahoma to southern Kansas (somewhere near a Woodward OK to Wichita KS line) and 2) convergence along a dryline/surface pressure trough over west Texas (somewhere near a Canadian TX to Snyder TX line).
320 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A cold front is slowly making its way across Central Illinois this evening with more northerly winds behind it and cooler temperatures expected overnight tonight. Mondays forecast has shifted a little south of I-70 where a wave ripples along the remnants of the cold front, producing some showers and thunderstorms. Max temps for Monday will be held to the lower 70s.
An unsettled period is in store as a cold front approaches and then slowly settles south through the region. The period will begin with a cold front becoming stationary near the TN/VA borders to KY Monday night.
Latest SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows MLCAPE values around 500-1000 j/kg in south central Kansas with the highest CAPE farther south, along and south of the front. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of eastern Colorado on Monday evening could move out over western Kansas Monday night as a low level jet sets up.
Dry weather will continue overnight under quasi-zonal upper level flow as we remain on the western flank of a broad area of high pressure at the surface. Another warm day is expected for Easter, as inland areas warm into the low-mid 80s with upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.
Deep high pres ridge centered btwn Bermuda and the Carolina Coast will meander over the SW Atlc, suppressed by a broad troffing pattern dominating the WX pattern from the Nrn Plains to the Canadian Maritimes. Ridge axis over the Deep South will drift into the FL Panhandle, slowly weakening as its airmass modifies over the warm Atlc waters. Sfc/low lvl pgrad will relax as the ridge axis weakens, but will maintain an E/SE flow thru the H100-H85 lyr. However, the position of the ridge maintain a fairly stout H85-H70 subsidence inversion that will cap the airmass blo 10KFT, preventing any meaningful modification of the very dry H70-H50 lyr.
With some breaks in the clouds, afternoon highs should climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s but areas that struggle to see sun could remain in the low 60s.
Convection is already beginning to develop over the higher terrain of northeast Mexico.
A cold front has stalled from the northeast Texas Panhandle southwestward into western Donley County.
The southward advancing cold front has stalled or nearly stalled out bisecting the region from northeast through southwest. Given surface dew points from the lower to mid 60s, LCLs will also be relatively low. Convection chances are still highly uncertain given weak ridging building in overhead.
347 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening with a crossing cold front.
High pressure from the western Atlantic across the central Gulf Coast will remain in place through the near term. Area radars are showing showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of the area with the highest coverage across southeast Mississippi. Low clouds and patchy dense fog will again develop tonight with lows in the low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast. Highs will climb into the low to mid 80s inland with upper 70s expected along the coast.
/19/ With high pressure at the surface still wedged into the forecast area from the east, a weak mid/upper level trough continues to slowly work its way east across the region. Otherwise for today, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies as highs this afternoon peak in the low and middle 80s. Weak upper troughing, PWATS around 1. With the cloud cover expect temperatures to remain in the low 80s across the area. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the region as temperatures rise into the lower to mid 80s and PW values will be around 1.
The KCDS terminal stands the best chance at seeing thunder late in the evening as a cold front dips south. /issued 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/ High dewpoints in the 50s and 60s remain ahead of the dryline and cold front.
117 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front over northeastern Iowa extends southwestward through northwestern Missouri as of 07z. Despite clouds, precipitation and northerly winds, will still see highs in the low to mid 70s today. Cooler temps expected, but still a bit above normal for this time of year, in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
A cold front wrapping south around this low as progressed through most of the forecast area with the cooler air at 925/850 mb lagging a bit. Core of the colder 925 mb airmass will move in once the low near Winnipeg moves a bit more east this evening. Sunshine combined with some cooler air aloft producing 500 j/kg cape in NW MN and some spotty showers and even isolated lightning strike or two TVF-CKN-BJI area. Low pressure tracking from northern high plains Mon night will move through central valley and toward MN arrowhead by Tue afternoon. The influence of Manitoba/Ontario high pressure Wed looks to result in a dry and marginally milder aftn.
High Quiet night with dry high pressure passing just to our south. Meanwhile a low pressure trough will move into cntrl WI by late in the night. Medium Models show a backdoor cold front dropping south into the area. Temperatures will rise ahead of the front and then may cool during the afternoon in parts of the east as the evolving onshore component taps into the cooler lake air.
Temperatures will range from the lower 60s in southern areas where cloud cover will linger the longest to around 70 in northern areas assuming at least some sun. Zonal flow aloft continues on Monday with a moist southeasterly flow at the surface and temperatures in the lower 70s.
The convection was south of the cold front which was slowly sinking southeast across eastern Kansas.
/ISSUED 933 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/ Patchy fog outside of the Houston metro continues to lift this morning, with warm and humid conditions expected to persist for the rest of Easter Sunday as highs climb into the low to mid 80s. Rain chances should diminish Wed-Fri as a ridge begins nosing into the region from the southwest.
Low clouds will lift over the next few hours and temps will climb into the lower 80s south. High pressure has released its grip on the Midsouth. A weak cold front will sink south today. The highest rain chances will be along the front with chances tapering off farther South. although a bit cooler than the weekend due to increased cloud cover and rainfall.
342 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 (Tonight and Monday) (Tonight and Monday) A weak upper trough across West Texas has kept the low clouds from clearing with temperatures in the 70s at 2PM. A cold front was straddled across the South Plains this afternoon, and a dryline extended south across Far West Texas. Water vapor satellite also shows a weak upper low moving into the Big Bend and southwest Texas, triggering thunderstorms around Fort Stockton. Continued low chance Pops for tomorrow since there could be some residual showers and thunderstorms across the area as the weak upper trough will be exiting to the east by tomorrow evening. An upper level ridge will then build in, bringing subsident and dry conditions through midweek.
Elsewhere, scattered showers associated with a weak mid-level trough across Central Texas could affect KTYR, and isolated to widely scattered convection may develop northward from the Gulf of Mexico into portions of Deep East Texas and North Central Louisiana.
Skies continue to clear overnight in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Sufficient mixing should yield highs in the low/mid 60s.
Any convection that develops will dissipate this evening, however as a cold front over the midwest moves into the Tennessee Valley late tonight, chance of showers/tstorms will increase across extreme north Georgia after midnight.
High pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area from the east, as a weakening upper trough exits the region to the east. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 60s. As afternoon temperatures peak in the lower 80s in this moist airmass, showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will begin to develop across the CWA as early as late Monday morning.
334 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A cold front will move southeast across the area this evening.
Highs on Monday will warm into the low to mid 70s. A dirty ridge will become established across the nation's midsection for most of the work week.
A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon and evening, with showers and a few thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portions of the area.
Low pressure over the northern great lakes will move on to the east. A trailing cold front from the low to central Kansas will move southeast across Indiana later today and then stall across Kentucky by Monday. Weak high pressure will build into the great lakes Monday.
Showers will spread across northern Nevada tonight and Monday with snow confined to the higher mountains.
06Z surface data has the main cold front running from a low near KLSE back into far northeast Kansas. Through sunrise, rain will end from west to east across the area as the cold front moves through the area. For Sunday and Sunday night quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Quiet and dry conditions will continue Monday and Monday night as high pressure slowly moves into the Ohio Valley.
However overnight, the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain moist and in fact, progged PWATS increase a bit. Rainfall chances should spread to the remaining areas throughout the day tomorrow as the intrusion of a weak cold frontal boundary combined with the embedded impulses moving overhead aids in increasing UL support.
1135 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion Satellite imagery this morning shows mainly clear skies across most of central and southwest Montana thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure building east into the region. Area of low to mid level cloud-cover has crept south to the Hwy2 corridor along with a wind shift to the N in association with a low level frontal boundary ahead of a cooler airmass moving south from AB. Expect the wind shift boundary to slide south across most of N-Central MT later this morning, but lower level clouds will have some difficulty making it further south with daytime warming and subsidence beneath the incoming upper level ridge. Surface and upper level low pressure moves into WA/OR tonight for increasing cloudiness with surface winds becoming easterly at most TAF sites.
302 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the northwest today and crosses the region later tonight giving showers and thunderstorms. Cold front will be slowly sagging southward across the southern CWA to start the period.
355 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to Carolinas/Georgia coast to east Texas.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Bulk of convective activity right now is contained across southern Ohio and central West Virginia, although cold front has barely even reached western Ohio at this point. With the latest update to the forecast, have kept pops higher across southern counties initially, transitioning to a slightly later arrival of rain with the cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley later today.
Therefore, the low level east to southeast flow will persist, but weaken enough to allow the west coast sea breeze to develop near the coast during the afternoon. Temperatures through the weekend will remain in the mid to upper 80s each afternoon (except a bit cooler at the coast), which continues to be above normal for this time of year. Rain chances remain low, with just a slight chance of a few showers in the afternoon, although accumulations should remain on the low side given any showers that do form will be fairly shallow. Relative humidity values will drop into the lower and middle 30s away from the coast during the next few afternoons, but winds should remain less than 15 mph.
420 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will remain well off the southeast coast through tonight.
Late tonight into Monday morning, a closed low will come ashore over Oregon with attendant precipitation for much of the state and northern California. The low will quickly open up and become an open trough that will shift to the northeast into Idaho and then Montana. The gradient also looks to tighten somewhat as the trough passes to our north so expect winds to pick up a little in the afternoon hours.
The Red Flag Warned area is directly south of the a west to east oriented cold front stretched just north of the ND/SD border this afternoon. Temperatures in ND have been 5-10F cooler, with dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s. This is while the main area of high pressure has shifted from west central SD down through eastern NE. Otherwise large high pressure across south central Canada will slowly sink across the Dakotas overnight, and slide over MN by mid day Monday. When the period opens Monday night, a low pressure system is moving across the forecast area.
656 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A cold front will move southeast across the area early tonight.
Although primary band of showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the state, isolated showers persist ahead of the trailing cold front over south-central Wisconsin. Highs on Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler as boundary layer winds turn NNE in the wake of a weak cold front dropping southward across the state.
A cold front continues to push through southern ND this afternoon. Some light snow was reported across northcentral North Dakota where temperatures were in the low 30s. Much colder temperatures will filter in overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will likely fall into the low to mid 20s across most of the area.
The lowest flight conditions will be in the Spokane area and Palouse on Monday morning when the winds shift to southerly/southwesterly.
The other is forecast to move across the area this evening, enhancing shower and thunderstorm development along the dryline to our west and a cold front to our northwest. Expect overnight lows in the low 60s.
Strong to severe storms continue to develop due to the high instability, despite the lack of shear and resultant disorganized thunderstorms. Across the PB storms will dissipate by mid evening, but are more likely to persist across the Lower Trans Pecos as they track e-se late into the evening. Meanwhile, high temps will increase much moreso then as thermal ridge expands, highs in the 90s will be widespread. A cold front may just make it into nrn CWFA Thur PM, but still unseasonably warm for most all areas.
A quasi-stationary frontal system remains draped across northern Montana with colder temperatures and cloudier skies north of the boundary and partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures south of the boundary.
214 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 210 PM CDT A cold front continues to shift over eastern sections of the area early this afternoon. So, while temperatures will again top out near 70 for most inland areas on Monday, cooler conditions will quickly develop along the lake shores as the lake breeze shifts onshore. KJB 351 AM CDT For Monday and through the rest of this week, an active pattern is setting up with a low amplitude, fast flow upper level pattern over the northern CONUS and broad subtropical ridging across the srn CONUS and GLFMEX.
Meanwhile, temperatures have been trending pretty well for highs in the low 80s due to the generally broken cloud cover. Dewpoints are trending higher than forecast (mainly over NW AL) with dewpoints in the low 60s while holding in the low to mid 50s elsewhere.