Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
346 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will remain across the area tonight and Thursday. A low pressure system will slide south of the region Thursday night.
322 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Cloud cover continues to increase as moisture increases throughout the column in response to the approaching upper low currently over NM. Upper ridge axis centered over MS/AL continues to try to hold its ground against this approaching upper low. Nonetheless, a few shwrs/isold tstms have developed along the wrn periphery of the ridge, as perturbations associated with the low continue to erode away at it. The upper low will move into the Srn Plains tonight and begin to bring better coverage of convection to the region by Thursday. Dryline will shift into our region by early Thursday afternoon and provide a focus for convective initiation, as the base of the upper trof moves into central TX.
301 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Ridge of high pressure over the local area at this time will continue to move east tonight. Low pressure will move east across northern Ohio Thursday morning and then to the Carolina coast by Thursday night.
closed upper low situated just south of the 4 corners approaching the southern high plains. synoptic scale lift increases over the region as the upper low lift into the central plains. may see some isolated deformation zone post-frontal precip as the upper low takes a southeasterly trajectory.
For the next several days the highest probability for rainfall and cloud cover will be across the north, associated with the coolest temperatures.
Thunderstorm coverage will again increase by mid afternoon tomorrow, as instability increases with the approach of the upper level low. Thunderstorm potential will diminish Thursday night, roughly from west to east, as the upper low begins to move east of the area.
Meanwhile, the dryline is progged to push farther east as the main upper low weakens and broadens over the Red River Valley. As the low continues to push off to the east, it should take PoP chances with it by tomorrow night.
The upper ridge that has provided some great spring weather will slide east of the region overnight and tomorrow.
Flood, Heavy Rain, Hail Concerns Continue along with Mountain Large upper low that has been with us for so many days is slowing transitioning east-northeastward.
Minimal airmass change before sunrise will allow the low clouds and fog to keep low temperatures on the mild side, ranging from the mid 50s near Galesburg to the upper 60s toward Lawrenceville. The slow departure of the cold front Thursday night will keep rain chances in the forecast for mainly S of I-70.
Southerly winds will be replaced by northerly winds late tonight into Thursday morning behind a cold front. Plenty of showers and thunderstorms remain on radar as of this writing across much of the OK and TX Panhandles as the upper level low pressure system moves closer to the area. In addition, a cold front will move across the area late tonight and Thursday morning with cooler temps in store for Thursday. Lingering slgt chc to chc pops for Thursday look reasonable as the upper level low tracks across the nrn zones Thursday morning.
545 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Ridge of high pressure over the local area at this time will continue to move east tonight. Low pressure will move east across northern Ohio Thursday morning and then to the Carolina coast by Thursday night.
230 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 A surface pressure ridge will extend along the Gulf Coast through Thursday and direct a warm and dry west flow into the forecast area. Aloft, ridging will dominate and help suppress thunderstorms.
An advancing upper level ridge extending into northeast Montana will lead to dry weather conditions tonight and on Thursday. In fact, high temperatures are expected to reach the high 70s by late Thursday afternoon. It would not even be surprising to see an isolated reading in the low 80s. The upper flow pattern for Thursday night will be an amplified ridge axis moving east across the Montana prairie, pushed along by a rather large and wet western trough.
As the front sinks south and precip exits this evening, high pressure will build into the region. The combination of cooling mid level temps with the approach of an upper trough, a weak surface boundary, steepening low-level lapse rates, and relatively higher boundary layer moisture may lead to a few showers mainly over western Wisconsin on Thursday. In the upper levels, a trough across Ontario will gradually slide southeastward as ridging spreads eastward into the Upper Midwest through the weekend.
1108 AM PDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will bring one more day of mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures, and light winds. A strong cold front will bring big changes Thursday with a good chance for thunderstorms.
Cloudy skies tonight will slowly mix out on Thursday as southeast winds crank to breezy again, with Gulf high pressure still strong enough to drive the wind.
250 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 The upper low responsible for the active weather yesterday across portions of the area has continued its northeastward progression, and per latest satellite imagery, is now located over western New Mexico. Height falls associated with the low are expected to keep flow backed across the Edwards Plateau and into the Lower Trans Pecos overnight, which should be enough to push the dryline westward into portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and perhaps the southeastern Permian Basin. Lows tonight will be in the 50s for most of the area, with 40s possible across portions of southeastern New Mexico and higher terrain, and 60s expected across the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.
254 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 A closed upper low will move from eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma panhandle overnight. The highest pops forecast tonight are near 40 percent across the southwestern tier of counties. The upper low will move east across the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Highs were raised to the warmer CONSMOS guidance from the upper 60s to near 70.
Our upper low moves from north central New Mexico late this afternoon to the Oklahoma panhandle by morning with the NAM indicating the showers across our southeast counties decreasing from north to south, and will paint this in our precipitation grids. Heights aloft build across our counties as the upper low moves further away and ridging aloft develops overhead. Warmer day with more sunshine and have compromised between the NAM and GFS MOS maximums for high temperatures. Ridge aloft moves overhead, keeping it dry. Temperatures remaining above freezing at lower elevations.
Appears greatest risk initially may be well southwest of the forecast area along the surface dry-line which becomes better defined toward 00z over the eastern TX/OK panhandles, and then perhaps along the southward sagging cold front over central Kansas later in the evening. Overall, will keep mention for up to golf ball size hail and damaging down-burst winds to 70 mph, though the higher end reports may be somewhat more isolated with instability affected by prior/ongoing elevated convection. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an embedded short wave rounding the base of the main upper level low pressure center. The upper low will move slowly eastward during the day on Thursday along the KS/OK border with a surface front sinking southward across Kansas.
Another wave will move east over the ridge positioned over the southeast and into Kentucky by Thursday afternoon.
A surface baroclinic zone/cold front will be situated to the north of the region Thursday morning. 0-6km shear would be supportive of some organized severe convection with individual storms, which eventually should develop upscale into a line of convection by early evening as the precip sinks south with the cold front into wrn KY /far se MO.
Upper low continues across the southern plains this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing along the dryline out in west Texas. The upper low and associated cold front is still forecast to translate to the east over the next several days.
Expansive high pressure in the low to mid levels from the Gulf of Mexico to Florida will be the main feature affecting South Florida's weather through the remainder of the week.
Area temperatures are currently about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Downtown Sacramento at 3:15 pm was 70, compared to 89 at the same time yesterday, 19 degrees cooler!. Even more cooling is expected Thursday as upper level ridging shifts eastward and a cooler trough moves in. A cold front moves thru Norcal Thursday with precipitation expected to be mainly confined to the Coast Range, the southern Cascades, and the northern Sacramento Valley.
Showers & storms are still progged to develop this afternoon/evening mainly across southern IN/northern KY (along and north of I-64) and points north closer to a warm front stretched across the Midwest. The rest of central KY should stay mainly dry under stronger ridging through this evening. Tonight the ridge will begin to break down allowing the front and associated convection to sink south into our region late tonight.
Main concern through Thursday night will be approaching amplified upper level trough as it moves onshore of the Pacific Northwest.
200 PM MST Wed May 10 2017 A low pressure system will clear the region tonight leaving mostly sunny skies and a substantial warming trend starting Thursday.
1141 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017 The center of the closed upper-level low pressure system has progressed slowly eastward this morning. Cooler air aloft will also be slightly more noticeable today as the upper-level trough axis passes over the central Rockies. Snow levels in the 9000-10000 foot range will be common, meaning snow for some of the higher passes and perhaps some very small hail in the stronger convective showers in the lower elevations. Have kept a mention of some very low chance showers in the forecast through the night in the higher elevations of the San Juans and Sawatch ranges. By daybreak Thursday the closed low will have exited our forecast area with its center projected to be over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle. Elsewhere, expect clearing skies and warming temperatures as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Dry and warmer weather will return on Thursday and continue through the weekend.
A cold front will approach the mid-state late tomorrow so we will see an increase in cloud cover but cigs expected to remain VFR.
Even then, only isolated coverage is shown by the higher resolution models (TT 3km WRF and ARW/NMM) and that more over the sites north and northwest of Houston during the late afternoon. The higher resolution models do show slight chances for isolated showers during the mid and late morning period.
340 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 The axis of a deep and well stacked ridge complex is just to our west, and it extends north well into the Ohio River Valley. This morning's 12z RAOBs sampled rising heights east of the Appalachians, indicating the ridge is creeping eastward. The vertical moisture profile sampled by the KKEY 12Z RAOB indicated a dearth of moisture, and a nearly uniform backing of the windfield from the surface to the upper troposphere, painting an idealized stacked ridge.
There may be some instances of dry weather before the deep upper level low shifts precipitation south of the area late in the period. Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow than of previous days, with highs only expected to reach into the upper 60s and low 70s. Rain chances will exit the area Thursday night as the upper trough pushes eastward into the Mississippi Valley region.
The ridge is amplifying, inducing greater production of high clouds over the region. The ridge amplification is contributing to an increase in the anti- cyclonically curved upper-tropospheric jet. As the changing kinematics continue to increase the dynamic response, the lower-tropospheric frontal zone will gain much greater definition across southern Lower Michigan overnight. As this occurs, the low-level circulation center is expected to intensify, as well.
247 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Upper level low pressure will remain south of the region into Thursday.
329 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night as a stationary front remains to the north.
134 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure northeast of the local area will retreat across eastern Canada.
On Thursday, quiet weather is expected as upper ridge to the west pushes east towards our area. Slightly warmer temperatures expected.
Sct convection still looks on track to develop by mid to late afternoon Thursday over NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR with the approach of an upper level low and associated cold front over the Srn Plains. /issued 1035 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017/ Cloud cover continues to increase as moisture increases throughout the column in response to the approaching upper low currently over NM. Upper ridge axis centered just to our e over the srn MS River. Weaknesses along the wrn periphery of the ridge, when combined with daytime heating/moisture in place, may provide enough lift to bring some isold to sct convection over parts of E TX/SE OK this afternoon. Otherwise, temps expected to top out in the low to mid 80s for most sites, and the ongoing fcst covers this well.
131 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Surface map this afternoon shows a ridge of high pressure situated just east of Middle Tennessee with a warm front stretched along the Ohio Valley to out north.
310 PM PDT Wed May 10 2017 Cooler weather will arrive this weekend as a trough of low pressure slowly approaches the region.
While the main synoptic front is located across Northern Missouri west into Northern Kansas, an effective front/trough is located further south from Central Missouri back into West Central Oklahoma. There is a signal that the heavier axis of showers and storms may be pushed further south into our area tonight vs locations to our north given a strong low level jet developing and interacting with this trough/effective boundary.
127 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Areawide rain chance return Thursday with advancing low pressure. That front is progged to be shunted eastward as low pressure digs toward the Western Great Lakes tonight. Warm advection/isentropic lift on the van of that system will support average temperature as well as increasing precip chances, while the systems weak cold front generates additional precip with a Thursday night encroachment.
/Thursday night through Wednesday/ Dry and warm conditions expected through the weekend as a large upper ridge builds through the central US. Thermal ridge to build into western IA as well with H85 temps into the teens Celsius.
but likely a few degrees cooler than today due to increasing cloud cover. Meanwhile out West a trough will dig over the Eastern Rockies and Southern Plains resulting in strong Southwest flow over the MidSouth region. A closed low over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles early tomorrow will begin to shift slowly to the East. A surface cold front ahead of the upper level feature will approach the Mississippi River by midnight tomorrow night. The upper level trough/wave will remain strongly positively tilted. Thermodynamic support will be minimized as well due to timing and dew points only in the lower 60s.
140 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper level ridge over the MS River Valley will slowly build east across the area through Thursday.
With northern stream taking control, will see ridge of high pressure dropping southward into the region tonight. Quiet conditions remain on Thursday with some slightly stronger northerly winds with mixing east of I-29, as well as perhaps just a few diurnal cumulus where temps aloft are cooler.
The upper ridge will remain entrenched over the Southeast states through this period, resulting in warm and dry conditions. Some mid level clouds will pass across north Alabama on Thursday as the upper ridge begins to break down.
High pressure aloft will build over the region the next couple of days.
1119 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017 Current surface map shows axis of high pressure across the western Dakotas. Rain ends this morning across south central South Dakota as upper trof moves east of the forecast area.
238 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 An upper level low that has been stagnant over southern Arizona has finally begun to slide east. It will track across the southern Rockies and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight thru Thursday. This will cause the upper ridge of high pressure that has been spread across the Central Gulf Coast to shift east and suppressing south.
328 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Quiet weather is expected over the short term as a disturbance shifts further away from the area, allowing a ridge of high pressure to continue building in from the west. Models are in general agreement Thursday on daytime highs with seasonable readings in the upper 60's across and east of the Coteau to above average readings elsewhere in the low to mid 70s. High pressure slides further into the area resulting in generally light winds, even variable at times. When the period opens, high pressure is over the region, keeping things warm and dry.
All this changes later this evening, when the approaching cold front overtakes the dryline.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft remain in control of our weather. Although a good bit of the low stratus will break up during the morning hours, partly cloudy skies are still anticipated through the afternoon hours Thursday. The aforementioned high and ridge will hold on enough over the CWA Thursday, that the quiet conditions will persist at least for one more period. Highs Thursday afternoon will range from the lower 80s in the west where clouds will be a little more prevalent, to the upper 80s in the east. Upper level flow from the SW ahead of an approaching closed low crossing the plains will pull upper level moisture into the region from the western Gulf.
243 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017 Main concern through Thursday night will be approaching amplified upper level trough as it moves onshore of the Pacific Northwest.
Latest water vapor band imagery shows deep closed low over central New Mexico early this afternoon, drifting slowly east. Backed low level flow that veers quickly above the surface as well relatively low LCLs will support low-level mesocyclones and a tornado threat.
146 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof axis that brought last nights/this mornings rain shifting into the eastern Dakotas/upper midwest, with upper ridge building eastward through the northern Rockies.
As we get into brisk return flow between high pressure along the East Coast and a cold front crossing the Plains, SSW winds will pick up today, and will gust into the 20-25 mph range this afternoon.
611 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure heads east today, with southwest flow ushering in milder air to start the weekend. A cold front crosses Saturday/Saturday night.
Cold front continues to gradually work its way into western North Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough stretching from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into central Montana. cold front will continue its march across the area with increasing northwest winds. Forecast soundings indicate that this may be a mix of some light freezing rain or snow, but chances for development remain on the lower side as main area of precipitation is expected to remain to the north. Notably cooler temperatures expected, with highs returning to below average.
518 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 This forecast period will features two cycles of: warm weather, followed by a mostly dry cold frontal passage, then cold weather. Strong WAA will continue today ahead of a cold front and will account for mostly cloudy skies and very windy conditions with sustained winds in the the 20-30 mph range with gusts to around 40 mph. This evening the cold front will begin to push into northwestern Missouri and progress southeastward through the CWA tonight. Behind the front on Saturday temperatures will be cooler but still mild with a lack of cold air behind the front. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s.
The cold front is expected to move through later this evening.
343 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Temperatures trend cooler today with brisk west winds. A cold front will back into north-central Montana late tonight, lowering temperatures into the teens and 20s on Saturday.
/issued 231 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ Southeast winds to prevail across the region as high pressure shifts east today. Rain to spread east across the entire ArkLaTex and increase in coverage this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With increased clouds and moisture across the region, overnight low temperatures to be much warmer than previous nights, averaging in the low to mid 50s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible on Saturday as cold front and weak upper-level trough move across the region.
543 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure across the western third of the CONUS. Ridging was noted downstream and extended from the Ozarks north into southern Canada. Downstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure was noted from the canadian maritimes south to New England. At the surface: Low pressure was located over swrn North Dakota with a cold front extending to the south southwest into eastern Wyoming. A cold front will track through western and north central Nebraska this morning. Even with H85 temps around zero C this afternoon, good mixing will facilitate highs in the lower 40s.
827 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure should maintain dry weather until rain chances return with a Saturday cold front. Lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than average.
NE wind of 15 to 25 mph this morning will increase to 20 to 30 mph by afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from the north, sandwiching South Florida between it and a stationary boundary stretching from The Bahamas and Cuba into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Much of the state still under strong pre-trough southwest flow aloft. 700mb trough axis. high country cold front, now just west of the n-central mtn ranges. Should see the cold air spilling out onto the high plains early this morning, first up along the Wyoming border around sunrise. Will likely see wind speeds increase through the day with strong post-trough flow aloft mixing downward. Tonight, should see winds weakening on the plains, but remain gusty from the west- northwest over higher elevations as cold air continues to filter in from the northwest on the backside of the upper trough. High temperatures today return to near average with lower 40s plains and 20s/lower 30s across the high country.
Cold front currently extends from western ND into eastern CO. Additional upper energy is expected to dive out of the northern Rockies and down the backside of the trough on Sun. More winter-like air is expected to move across the area for Wed into Thu as a slower moving longer wave trough passes over the Plains. A cold front moving in from Nebraska & NW KS should reach KRSL & KGBD ~21Z & KHUT & KICT this evening but no post-frontal Stratocu would occur.
429 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Low clouds and fog persist across far eastern counties, while the central/eastern Dakotas are seeing passage of a surface front thanks to the development of a weak low pressure system over central North Dakota. Mixed temperatures continue to yield highs in the low/mid 40s. 1/2km winds start near 40kts at 15Z but are expected to mix out in the low/mid 30s so most of the area will be windy today. NAM nest supports some light snow out of this feature which is confined to the low levels, so increased POPs for light snow, though accumulations should be generally negligible with only about 5 microbars of lift in the layer, though the upslope areas of the Coteau see some enhancement briefly.
A weak Pacific cold front will move east across the state today, bringing gusty westerly winds with potential mountain wave activity to the lee of the central mountain chain. A dry Pacific cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the state today. Brisk northwest winds behind the front will usher in cooler air.