Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise SW winds may increase to 12-14kts today ahead of an Arctic cold front Mon AM.
Skies will be mostly clear with light winds with temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night. An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters on Monday.
124 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 High pressure will dominate through Monday.
MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible as the cold front pushes through after 18Z Monday.
The upper level ridge of high pressure is rebuilding off the coast placing the region under a northwest flow. This system will also usher in some cooler air as a northerly surface flow advects this cooler air into the region from Canada.
Temperatures will be cooler in the higher elevations today and warmer in the lower valleys due a weakened inversion. A weak cold front will move through this afternoon and will provide enough wind to improve mixing and end the stagnant conditions in the valleys.
/Issued 800 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2019/ A weak cold front moved onshore to the north of the area this morning, and the associated precipitation remained north of the CWA as well. A long wave ridge will build offshore today and flow aloft will turn northwesterly, so it will remain dry with decreasing clouds today. Over the rest of the area, today's highs will be 15-20 degrees above normal and a few degrees cooler Monday.
Lots of sunshine and temperatures climbing well into the 60s for many, though a little cooler in the east.
1145 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected today before the next area of low pressure brings rain Monday, and light snow by Monday night.
1143 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 High pressure will dominate through Monday.
A weak cold front moved onshore to the north of the area this morning, and the associated precipitation remained north of the CWA as well. A long wave ridge will build offshore today and flow aloft will turn northwesterly, so it will remain dry with decreasing clouds today. Over the rest of the area, today's highs will be 15-20 degrees above normal and a few degrees cooler Monday.
1257 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected today before the next area of low pressure brings rain Monday, and light snow by Monday night.
High pressure covers much of the southeast U. The high should hold on long enough to keep dry weather for the region tonight. A strong cold front will move into the Mid-South on Monday. Temperatures will be cooler than today with highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. The cold front behind the cold front will be out of the Mid-South by early evening.
1246 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Cool and dry air in place across the area today with high pressure just to the north.
251 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 The anticipated cold front is currently situated across the Central Plains. Gusty winds will make temps seem much colder with wind chills in the low to mid teens possible.
1225 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 High pressure will remain just north of the area through tonight.
1203 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 Warmer conditions were observed overnight across extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Dry weather is expected through the afternoon, however, precipitation will eventually develop across the region tonight and especially Monday as a strong cold front surges into the region. Temperatures will drastically cool down, creating a mix of rain, sleet, snow, and possibly some freezing rain Monday.
09z surface analysis had cold front from western MT to eastern NE, slowly backing southwest. This feature will slow the progression of the surface cold front across the southwest quarter of the CWA through this morning, and then it should surge southward as 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises develop this afternoon.
1112 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Currently - Upper level trough responsible for yesterday's front remains over the area as evident by water vapor satellite imagery. This trough is rather broad and encompasses the eastern third of the U. Further upstream is a weak cut-off trough that is beginning to move onshore across extreme southern CA and northern Baja California. Short term update - Dry air is entrenched over the region behind the recent cold front. Temperature are on track to only climb another couple of degrees into the lower 80s.
A mostly dry cold front will move through Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight. High pressure will return Monday, resulting in a warming trend through midweek. High pressure is centered off the California coast this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming in a continued dry west to northwest flow aloft. High clouds are starting to increase over northern portions of the forecast area as a cold trough starts to make its way south into the central United States. The forecast area will see the passage of a weak and mostly dry cold front tonight with this system, but the best moisture and cold air will remain east of the Rockies.
933 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley region this morning as high pressure further amplifies into the area. Due to strengthening WSW/SW flow aloft, think we'll see an uptick in temperatures today and have bumped up highs into the low to mid 60s (about 5 degrees higher than yesterday). An upper trough will begin to dig southward and into the Plains tonight, with southwest flow returning over the TN Valley. This return flow will filter moisture northward, keeping overnight lows from falling below the lower 40s. The trough will approach the Mississippi Valley during the day Monday, pushing a cold front towards the TN Valley. These showers will overspread the area Monday night as the cold front quickly sweeps through the area.
400 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 High pressure over the Southeastern United States will move slowly eastward through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 80s. An area of low pressure that will be moving into the northeastern portion of the country will have a cold front moving southeastward along with it.
Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley region this morning as high pressure further amplifies into the area. Due to strengthening WSW/SW flow aloft, think we'll see an uptick in temperatures today and have bumped up highs into the low to mid 60s (about 5 degrees higher than yesterday). An upper trough will begin to dig southward and into the Plains tonight, with southwest flow returning over the TN Valley. This return flow will filter moisture northward, keeping overnight lows from falling below the lower 40s. The trough will approach the Mississippi Valley during the day Monday, pushing a cold front towards the TN Valley. These showers will overspread the area Monday night as the cold front quickly sweeps through the area.
636 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 High pressure will dominate through Monday.
This is primarily for a period of freezing drizzle that is occurring behind the southward moving cold front.
825 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Forecast on track for another cool and dry night ahead with high pressure to the north promoting mostly clear skies and light northeast flow. Overnight lows will run a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the 50s interior and 60s coastal, and gradual warming continuing into Monday. /issued 1246 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019/ Cool and dry air in place across the area today with high pressure just to the north.
Monday highs will struggle under this arctic air mass and potential cloud redevelopment and many locations will be 10-15 on the higher end.
A mostly dry cold front will move through Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight. High pressure will return Monday, resulting in a warming trend through midweek.
As the front continues to drop south, a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible before better dynamics and moisture increase to produce snow. Arctic high pressure will settle over the region Monday with highs maxing out in the upper teens to low 20s.
Skies are expected to begin clearing out from north to south tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Skies are expected to begin clearing out from north to south tonight as high pressure builds over the area. This also raises the concern for fog potentially developing over the areas under building high pressure and with fresh surface moisture trapped under an inversion near the surface.
On Monday, flow will become cyclonic as upper ridging moves into the area, which will bring about drier conditions, and temperatures reaching the upper 40s.
The arctic cold front continues to move westward this afternoon, and wind gusts have been between 40-50 mph in the Flathead Valley and gusting close to 40 mph over Flathead Lake.
539 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 VFR expected until later tonight when a cold front brings MVFR/IFR ceilings to all three terminals, with some clearing expected later in the afternoon. /issued 251 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019/ The anticipated cold front is currently situated across the Central Plains. Gusty winds will make temps seem much colder with wind chills in the low to mid teens possible.
717 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2019 Upper trof axis is currently dropping through central Montana with nice band of snow ahead of it, drifting south through the forecast area. Subsidence behind the upper trough will cause the snow to end from north to south, starting this evening over far northwestern South Dakota and finally moving completely out of the forecast area to the south late tonight/early Monday morning.
Overnight low temperatures expected to fall into the mid 50s areawide ahead of a cold front that will work its way across the ArkLaTex on Monday. Widespread showers expected areawide on Monday with high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 70s ahead of the front across much of north Louisiana and deep east Texas and the upper 50s to lower 60s across northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. High pressure behind the front to force much colder air across the region Monday into Monday night. Additionally, temperatures to fall into the mid 20s across southeast Oklahoma to just below freezing across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
Subsidence behind the upper trough will cause the snow to end from north to south, starting this evening over far northwestern South Dakota and finally moving completely out of the forecast area to the south late tonight/early Monday morning.
Sly winds 10 kts or less will veer around to the nw towards the end of the pd, as a cold front moves through the region. Overnight low temperatures expected to fall into the mid 50s areawide ahead of a cold front that will work its way across the ArkLaTex on Monday. Widespread showers expected areawide on Monday with high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 70s ahead of the front across much of north Louisiana and deep east Texas and the upper 50s to lower 60s across northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. High pressure behind the front to force much colder air across the region Monday into Monday night. Additionally, temperatures to fall into the mid 20s across southeast Oklahoma to just below freezing across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
High pressure prevails over the western States for the next few days.
Otherwise, another pleasant evening and overnight is in store with lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures. Tonight's lows are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than last night with dewpoints not quite as low and also with a slight increase in cloud cover later tonight.
Big changes however in the immediate future as Arctic cold front moves into northeast Oklahoma after Midnight. Cold front forecast to move just south of I-44 by 12Z Monday. Temperatures will likely hold or fall behind the front depending on your location, with the potential for a wintry mix of rain or light freezing drizzle across northeast Oklahoma Monday morning, spreading into northwest Arkansas by early afternoon. Best chance for switch over to all snow is still across northwest Arkansas where a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible, primarily in the higher terrain areas before shifting east by early Monday evening.
/issued 1246 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019/ Cool and dry air in place across the area today with high pressure just to the north.
The overall pattern continues to feature an upper level ridge over the West, resulting in above average temperatures across interior NorCal.
Upper level ridge will move over Western Washington tonight and Monday.
A weak upper level low pressure center is sliding southeast across northern Baja and a ridge of high pressure is amplifying along the west coast behind it. The ridge is progged to build over our region during the next couple of days as a low pressure system develops upstream over the northeast Pacific.
High pressure will then build in through the day, with northerly flow continuing to usher in cold, dry air.
Upper trof axis is currently dropping through central Montana with nice band of snow ahead of it, drifting south through the forecast area. Subsidence behind the upper trough will cause the snow to end from north to south, starting this evening over far northwestern South Dakota and finally moving completely out of the forecast area to the south late tonight/early Monday morning.
Flow aloft will become more southwesterly through today as a northern stream longwave trough moves into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, flow will also begin veering as the ridge of high pressure moves east in response to the approaching frontal system.
On Monday, flow will become cyclonic as upper ridging moves into the area, which will bring about drier conditions, and temperatures reaching the upper 40s. Ridging will continue to build on Tuesday along with downsloping winds.
SW winds becoming WNW behind a cold front will gust 20+ kts after 00z at CKV/BNA/MQY, followed by CSV at the end of this TAF.
The other issue with this cold front will be the low stratus and resulting precipitation. Also, temperatures may drop quick enough for some light freezing drizzle in the southwestern Texas Panhandle before shutting down this afternoon. Surface lee troughing will develop in response to a weak short wave moving across the Intermountain West shifting surface winds back to the southwest.
A cold front moving south through the northern Rockies will enter northern Utah late tonight. This front will bring cooler temperatures, though with little or no precipitation. High pressure will return to area beginning late Monday, and result in a warming trend through midweek. The latest MSAS data shows the associated surface cold front extends from roughly central Idaho through the central portion of Wyoming. If anything is going to develop, it will be over southwest Wyoming when the mid-level feature moves over the top of the low-level baroclinic zone. The result will be a less amplified, but broad, upper ridge across the Great Basin which will result in a gradual warming trend with dry conditions over the next several days.
1014 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 VFR expected until 09Z, when a cold front surges south across all three terminals. /issued 251 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019/ The anticipated cold front is currently situated across the Central Plains. Gusty winds will make temps seem much colder with wind chills in the low to mid teens possible.
Winds become light southeasterly to south tomorrow as a cold front approaches the area.
/issued 825 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019/ Forecast on track for another cool and dry night ahead with high pressure to the north promoting mostly clear skies and light northeast flow. Overnight lows will run a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the 50s interior and 60s coastal, and gradual warming continuing into Monday.
Weak short wave trough cleared the stagnant air out of most of the Snake Basin today. The Lower Treasure Valley did not mix out and the Air Stagnation Advisory has been extended there until Monday afternoon.
930 PM PST Sun Nov 10 2019 A cold front will usher in drier and cooler air under breezy northerly winds tonight and Monday.
After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will moderate today under mostly sunny skies, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. A strong mid level trough will swing through the southeastern US on Tuesday, pushing another cold front through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Strong high pressure extending eastward from the coast of South Carolina will exit into the Western Atlantic on Monday, with its influence easing over the Keys waters through Tuesday night.
Winds will increase from the southwest today, with a shift to the northwest and north late at CHA/TYS with the passage of the cold front.
Otherwise, quiet conditions through the night under high pressure. /issued 400 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019/ High pressure over the Southeastern United States will move slowly eastward through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 80s. An area of low pressure that will be moving into the northeastern portion of the country will have a cold front moving southeastward along with it.
1226 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure will dominate through Monday. The next chance for rain will be Tuesday as a cold front moves across the area, followed by some very cold temperatures for the midweek period. High pressure remains over the region but will slowly move eastward. High clouds will gradually increase in advance of the next cold front. Radiational cooling tonight will become limited due to the cloud cover, yielding overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night in the upper 30s to low 40s. Dry conditions will prevail through the day, and with high pressure moving off the coast, temperatures should rebound back up to around 70 degrees. Rainfall associated with the next cold front will hold off until late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
442 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Early morning surface analysis places strong cold front just south and east of Tulsa, from Jay to Porter to Shawnee. It looks like surface freezing line may not arrive in Tulsa til around mid day which means most precipitation south of a line from Tulsa to Bentonville will be all rain this morning.
Northerly winds will be channeled down the lower Colorado River Valley today and Tuesday.
The center of surface arctic high pressure will slide across southwestern North Dakota through the day, promoting decreasing clouds, very cold temperatures, and a favorable setup for light lake effect snow southeast of Lake Sakakawea through at least the early afternoon. Highs will struggle to make it out of the lower to mid teens this afternoon as a broad upper level ridge starts to deamplify across the western US and slowly move towards the Northern Plains.
Dry weather will continue through the week as a strong ridge offshore blocks storms from reaching the North Coast. This is to be expected in a pattern dominated by a long wave blocking ridge.
There will be the chance for scattered showers, drizzle, freezing drizzle, and sleet for a short period of time behind the front; however, the probability for a given terminal is too low to include in any TAFs. /issued 421 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ The cold front has through the northwestern half of Oklahoma by 3AM, still set to clear the state before noon. There will be a small window where some drizzle or light rain falls with surface temperatures below freezing over northern and possibly central Oklahoma this morning. By late afternoon, there only remains a slight chance for light freezing drizzle over southeastern Oklahoma before the much drier air moves across that area.
Expect low temperatures tonight to remain around 5-10 degrees cooler than previous lows across much of the CWA. Flow turns more toward the west by Tuesday as the west coast ridge begins to break down and progress east.
temperatures should climb into the low to mid 20s. these are safely warmer than our record cold temps for the date. Weak ridging continues to be forecast for the end of the week.
334 AM PST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure will bring a warming trend through Tuesday with the marine layer becoming shallower and coastal low clouds not spreading as far into the valleys for tonight into Tuesday morning.
Areas of developing weak 10-20 dbz reflectivity so far this morning has accounted for only the lightest, non impacting freezing drizzle across the area.
Strong southerly winds will develop on Tuesday, but it won't feel substantially warmer especially in the east with wind chills remaining in the single digits above and below zero.
High pressure is moving into the Atlantic off of the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas this morning while a polar front is stretched from New England to the Texas Panhandle. The cold front will move into Southeast Texas around or just after sunset then into Central and Southwest Louisiana in the evening followed by lower Acadiana around midnight. For now it looks as if the precip will mostly be exiting the area by the time the profile cools enough, however a few sleet pellets may be possible on the back edge, but the surface temperatures should remain above freezing while precip is falling.
Highs in Livingston are expected to be near 40 degrees, around freezing in Billings, and only teens in Baker. Upper level ridging will be moving into the region, bringing about drier conditions.
533 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Ceilings have dropped to MVFR range at all three TAF sites behind a strong cold front and will remain in the MVFR category most of the morning. The other issue with this cold front will be the low stratus and resulting precipitation. Also, temperatures may drop quick enough for some light freezing drizzle in the southwestern Texas Panhandle before shutting down this afternoon. Surface lee troughing will develop in response to a weak short wave moving across the Intermountain West shifting surface winds back to the southwest.
Strong cold front will move through the terminals this morning with prevailing MVFR/IFR ceilings developing quickly behind it. /issued 335 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ Current observations show the cold front is approaching Lubbock and will be entering our CWA within the next few hours. The biggest change in the models has been a more southerly track to an upper level low near Baja Mexico. This will cause the greatest precipitation chances and QPF amounts to be associated with the frontal passage today, and not with lift from the low tonight. That means most of the precipitation will fall as rain today with lighter amounts of freezing rain and sleet expected overnight, mainly in the Big Bend. Any precip that falls after surface temps drop below freezing will be either freezing rain, or less likely, sleet.
Downslope winds develop Tuesday afternoon as warm front moves through.
Associated scattered flurries will be possible, and still can't rule out Lake Effect snow on Mille Lacs as colder air in the northwest flow regime passes over the warmer (unfrozen) lake water. Scattered flurries will likely accompany the low clouds as well.
212 AM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure has moved into NE Montana overnight with bitter cold airmass. The high moves to the east today and while there will be warm air advection, a bitter cold start along with snow cover will keep temperatures very cold for mid November with highs only in the teens in most areas and 20s in the southwest. While temperatures on Tuesday will be much warmer today, snow cover and low level inversions will limit highs to the 30s in most areas.
A strong cold front will quickly move through the forecast area this morning, resulting in gusty north winds and MVFR/IFR ceilings. Some light freezing rain or sleet is possible late Monday afternoon and evening, although impacts look minimal at this time. /issued 449 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A strong cold front will move rapidly south across West Central Texas this morning, bringing much colder temperatures and strong north winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph through this evening. Also, light winter precipitation, freezing rain and sleet, is possible across the southern half of the area mainly late this evening and a few hours after midnight. Lows will be in the lower to mid 20s.