Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Went in the middle which more closely aligned with the low/midlevel forcing mechanisms for large-scale ascent. Lows tonight will generally be several degrees warmer than last night due to increasing cloudiness.
452 PM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016 As expected, southwest flow ahead of the low pressure to our northwest allowed moisture to increase overnight and today. The stronger storms have produced some pea to dime sized hail but the bigger concern has been gusty surface winds with the highest report being 52MPH from the Montrose airport. By daybreak Monday, the low pressure will be just entering northern Utah with plenty of moisture still remaining in our CWA. Very similar conditions to Sunday will be in place though lift will be enhanced somewhat as the low gets closer. The low pressure will be slow moving as upper level support will remain to our west and east.
151 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cooler air mass will settle over the region today as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
An upper level low over eastern Oregon this afternoon will exit into Idaho tonight, with a decreasing trend in shower activity over western Washington.
An upper low entering central Idaho will slowly wobble southeastward across the region tonight and Monday bringing cool and wet conditions for most areas.
301 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Upper-level ridging will bring warmer temperatures with drying conditions to the region for the next few days. By the end of the week, a strong area of low pressure aloft will drop south across northern California. In the mean time, residual cold air/troughing aloft, daytime heating, and marginally sufficient instability persists across most of the forecast area for the afternoon cumulus and a few showers to develop.
The TAF period will feature an upper level low over WA/OR battling it out with a weak upper level high over Alberta/British Columbia.
259 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Despite the cooler temperatures. Deeper low level moisture will begin to surge north tomorrow night with slightly milder lows as a warm front near the Gulf lifts north to near the KY/TN border.
on the backside of a longwave trough whose axis now extends through New England. so will show the highest chances of precip late this evening and early overnight over northern WI. Warmer lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Monday Night Through Sunday an upper trough will swing across northern and central wisconsin monday night.
A stalled cold front has maintained persistent showers across portions of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana throughout much of the day.
Steady 850 waa proggd to persist all night with thermal ridge laid out west/east across srn wi by 12z. Have made only minor tweaks to the going fcst with respect to timing of the higher pops into srn wi. 925 temps within the pre-frontal thermal ridge of 9-12c expected to yield highs into the 60s.
1216 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Temperatures remain quite variable early this morning, oscillating between the lower 40s and mid 30s, depending on localized mixing and lingering mid-lvl clouds. Despite temperatures in the lower to middle 60s, considerable sunshine and light winds should make Sunday rather enjoyable. 925:850 MB ridge will sprawl out along the NE/SD border, trapping moisture just south of the CWA. Overnight lows in the lower 40s. expect the ridging ahead of the approaching northern wave will keep rain south of the area.
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Quiet night anticipated as high pressure drifts over the region. This evening, winds will become lighter and more variable before more southerly flow sets up after midnight on the other side of the ridge axis.
239 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an upper level low over western Ontario with a short wave trough over the Lake Winnipeg area. The upper level low is expected to stay over extreme southern Ontario as it moves southeast. The short wave trough will move almost straight south tonight before turning to the southeast Monday. The right entrance region of the jet rounding the upper level low looks to be over the area by Monday afternoon to add some additional lift to the short wave trough. there does not look to be much moisture transport back into the area as this is focused farther south on the short wave trough coming out of the southern Rockies.
lake effect snow made a return! The trend to be cooler than what's expected for mid-May (81 for KHSV and KMSL) will continue again today with highs expected to reach around 70 degrees.
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Quite a messy forecast for the week ahead across southeast TX, dominated by moist southwest flow aloft ahead of broad mid/upper level trough over the Wrn U. Several disturbances will keep things unsettled across the region with more widespread moist convection late in the week as leading upper low is ejected ahead of next bit of energy digging into the Pac NW.
An upper low over ne Oregon will continue to produce showers over sw Washington and nw Oregon tonight and Monday. The showers will decrease from west to east as the upper low moves further to the ne.
MVFR cigs and vsbys will increase at all sites from west to east overnight as rain develops of an advancing warm front.
114 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 An unseasonably cold airmass will remain over the region today, while an upper level trough sits over the Great Lakes.
554 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Freezing temperatures are expected tonight before temperatures moderate into mid week. With 850mb temperatures expected to range form -2C to -4C, clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow for temperatures to fall to near or below freezing overnight. A freeze warning has been issued for all counties, with lowest temperatures into the mid 20s expected in the ridge counties.
In theory, we will continue to see clearing tonight in subsidence underneath height rises/upper level ridging.
The main reason for cooler temperatures south will be thicker cloud cover and a small chance for rainfall in the afternoon.
A strong upper level low will continue to slowly push to the east and into New Mexico during the day on Saturday taking with it the gusty northerly winds.
Moisture wrapping around a low pressure area over the Central Rockies is combining with a northerly upslope low level flow behind a cold front to bring showers to much of the forecast area this morning. Otherwise, the upper low will be forced east of the area today by an approaching upper level high pressure ridge from the Pacific Northwest. A few showers will develop over the Rocky Mountain Front on Saturday as well, as the ridge flattens and more of a westerly flow aloft develops.
1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 The 12Z OAX sounding from this morning showed moisture through the lowest 6K ft. Early morning water vapor imagery revealed a deep-layer cyclone over the mid MS Valley with another closed mid-level system near Las Vegas. Persistent low-level warm advection and isentropic upglide downstream from the mid-level trough will foster the development of a precipitation shield which will migrate from the central High Plains into the mid and lower MO Valleys.
Temps in the cool sector are noticably cooler than the warm sector with a temperature spread of 31 degrees across the FA. The front is not expected to move much as long as the upper low over AZ remains to our west keeping the upper level flow overhead out of the south to southwest. By tomorrow evening the low will have only made it as far as central NM. Precip/convection will be possible late tonight into tomorrow along and behind the surface front as the low moves closer to the FA and brings with it upper level lift.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today in the wake of a weak cold front, but should still warm to near climatological norms this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer on Saturday despite persistent, yet light, northeast surface winds.
1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Latest water vapor imagery depicts an approaching mid-level ridge over the Central Plains, which will maintain dry conditions throughout Friday and much of Saturday across the area.
Strong east and southeast flow at 850 mb through the night will provide additional moisture and support for continued instability and increasing shear with approach of dynamics associated with incoming closed low.
130 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Ridge of high pressure building in from the Northern Plains/southern Canada was slowly eroding stratocumulus cloud cover from north to south across the forecast area. Some increase in high/mid clouds then expected through the early morning hours ahead of a trough of low pressure dropping through the Northern Plains. Plan on lows tonight ranging from the middle/upper 20s across central WI, to the lower/middle 30s along and west of the Mississippi River. Mid-level trough continues to drop southeast through the region Saturday for some patchy mid/high cloud. Will be watching some moisture return from the Central Plains later Saturday night ahead of a closed low moving out into the plains of Colorado.
We will be in between systems on Saturday with some upper level ridging.
225 PM MDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Upper low currently over northern Arizona will wobble slowly to northern New Mexico by Saturday afternoon. Vorticity lobe rotating around the main upper low will provide synoptic scale lift for precipitation, which will overspread the area from southwest to northeast tonight. Saturday night: Upper low will continue to transition eastward with rain/snow activity ending west to east with best chances still in the evening period.
High pressure builds into the weekend leading to a warming trend with readings into the 70s and even some lower 80s.
Skies will become mostly clear with lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s. The tail end of frontal boundary will stall just south of Martin county with high pressure extending into the Southeast.
346 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 An upper level low currently over Arizona this afternoon will be the big weather maker for this weekend.
144 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning shows two longwave troughs, one digging south across the Four Corners and the other lifting east- northeast across the Ohio River Valley, with weak ridging in place across the southern and central Plains. Given the onshore flow near Lake Superior, expect temperatures to remain in the low to mid 40s along and just inland of the shore. Models suggest that a mild split flow pattern will become more amplified as a ridge builds from the sw CONUS through Alberta/Saskatchewan with downstream troughing from the Great Lakes into the se CONUS.
The clouds look to be stubborn again but should have some breaks across southern Kansas today, however cooler below normal temperatures look to prevail once again.
This area of low cloud development is the result of a shallow moist layer residing along the 850mb ridge axis extending into northwestern Oklahoma. Elsewhere, however, temps should climb into the upper 60s along I40 and into the low 80s near the Red River. By early afternoon Saturday, height falls accompanying the low should begin west of I35. It's difficult to determine how far south the cold front will make it Saturday, especially with the mid to upper low still well to our west.
243 PM MDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Large upper low crossing the Four Corners region will continues its slow eastward drift tonight through Saturday. Inverted trough across the central high plains will continue to bring precip to the region. Any precip reaching the higher Black Hills will fall as snow. This will bring in warmer air with temps reaching the 50s to low 60s Saturday. The cooler spots will be across SW/SCentral SD where clouds will take longer to erode.
Skies continue to clear this afternoon across western Montana and central Idaho as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will flatten into more of a westerly flow during the day Saturday, increasing clod cover and bringing showers to the region, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.
405 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will deepen over the Chesapeake Bay this evening and pull away to the east overnight.
437 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Issued at 437| PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017 Showers were occurring beneath an upper low over our area this afternoon, aided by cold air advection in upslope flow. As the low departs to the east tonight, mid level temperatures will warm and an inversion will lower. It may be late Saturday night before the low clouds finally break up over the far eastern part of the state. With a cool day on Saturday and dew points expected to be above freezing yet on Saturday night, the light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies should allow for some valley fog to develop overnight. There will also be a upper level ridge working east and therefore leading to a dry and warm day across the region.
A cold front will slide Southeast of the region Tonight, with high pressure building from the West on Saturday. An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the period ahead of an upper low/trough.
344 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Today has been a cooler and pleasant day across the Tennessee Valley. This clearing trend should continue tonight and into Saturday as upper ridging and northerly surface winds allow at least a couple of days of drier weather.
310 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure over Ohio will shift east across Pennsylvania this evening and then off the New Jersey Coast after midnight. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Saturday.
338 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure and trailing cold front will move off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
There will also be a upper level ridge working east and therefore leading to a dry and warm day across the region.
220 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low cloud coverage remains over the area as remnants of the cut off low pressure system that came through this week. These clouds are expected to stick around over night keeping our low temperatures from dropping much with lower 40s expected with the low clouds starting to erode in the afternoon. A finger of the low level jet will advect into the area Saturday night creating enough warm air advection and isentropic lift to develop some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the nose of this feature.
Dry conditions and a trend toward partly cloudy skies can be expected this weekend as high pressure briefly builds in.
Adjusted coverage of drizzle further south into West Kentucky, mainly the Pennyrile region as late as 17z (noon), as the attendant thermal lift and vorticity advection with the closed low (centered just east of Southwest Indiana at 7 am CDT) advects southeast through Kentucky this morning. Will go dry this afternoon, with dry weather the rule tonight through Saturday night, as high pressure moves across the area.
A cool low pressure system will continue to slowly circulate through northern Arizona tonight, and slowly exit into New Mexico Saturday.
1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 H5 analysis from earlier tonight, had a closed low over central Nevada with a 140+ KT jet streak extending from Washington state south to southern California. Downstream of the low, ridging extended from the high plains of west Texas north into the Dakotas. East of the ridge, a closed low was located over southern Missouri with a downstream ridge extending from the Delmarva north into the eastern Great Lakes. For tonight: The upper level low will drift to the east southeast, crossing northern Arizona into northern New Mexico. The upper level low that will produce our rain chances on Saturday will move across the four corners region and push south southeast across the TX Panhandle.
140 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 One cold front moves across this afternoon, followed by another tonight.
Cold front located across the eastern Florida Big Bend counties currently and heading eastward. High pressure and ridging are set to build across the southeast tonight, both at the surface and aloft. Drier air will continue to advect in, and with clearing skies, low will drop into the lower to middle 50s.
402 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A warm front will move through this morning, followed by a cold front this evening. High pressure will pass through from the northwest this weekend.
1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 March arrived like a lion but it's certainly heading out otherwise, with high pressure and drier air starting to nose into the region. Otherwise, expecting the low level cyclonic flow with moisture trapped under the inversion to slowly diminish through the day as the area of low pressure over Indiana continues to move away from the region.
Upper low moving eastward from NE KY about to enter western WV. Winds Saturday should be much lighter as the low level ridge moves into the region. Another active period of Spring weather with a nice ending to the weekend with nearly full sunshine and high temperatures returning to the 70s forecast area wide thanks to Eastern United States upper level ridging.
143 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Scattered showers are expected today as low pressure moves across our area. High pressure will build into the Midwest over the weekend providing fair weather with seasonable temperatures. An upper low over Illinois early this morning will drift east and bring more showers to the forecast area today. Lowered highs several degrees over northern areas favoring cooler guidance given an initial cool marine flow off Lake Erie. Skies should remain cloudy today with the low in the vicinity, but some clearing is possible over northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan late tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
205 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A cold front will sweep east across the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the weekend.
An upper level ridge is moving into the forecast area this morning. Scattered to broken high cirrus clouds will begin moving over the top of the ridge very late in the day and especially tonight.
311 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will deepen over the Chesapeake Bay this evening and pull away to the east overnight.
The low cloud deck continued also to moderate overnight low temperatures, keeping lows generally in the lower 40s. This along with little to no temperature advection in the low levels will limit the diurnal temperature swing, and highs are most likely to range from the upper 40s to low 50s. A deep trough currently over SW Utah will creep slowly east through the day and into tonight. By Saturday morning, a mid-level ridge will be shifting east of the CWA with a closed mid-level low advancing into New Mexico.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level short wave trough over the central Dakotas. Also an upper level trough was located over the ALTA/SASK border. SASK trough will move across southern Canada this evening and send a weak cold front into the northern zones for this afternoon and tonight. Another upper level trough over the Aleutians will move across southern Canada Sun and sweep another weak cold front across the area Sun.
334 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Challenge for the evening into Saturday will hinge on cloud cover, light showers and fog as a weak cold front drops south across the forecast area. As the cold front pushes south across the forecast this evening 925MB CAA on northerly winds will push south stalling across the southern valley towards morning.
Tonight and Saturday Most of the low clouds slowly made their way out of the forecast area by early this afternoon.
The forecast area has a stratus deck of clouds on the backside of the low with showers moving southward through west central IL and east central MO with areas of drizzle elsewhere. The low will move further east of the region today with ridging both at the surface and aloft building into the area. Temperatures will be cooler today and tonight with little if any solar insolation today along with low level cold air advection. A deep upper trof and low centered through the southwest U. In response to falling surface pressures/height falls across the Plains and retreat of the low-level ridge, a south- southwesterly LLJ will develop resulting in WAA and moisture transport back into the area.
Expect to see the lowest visibilities at KBTR and KMCB where some IFR restrcitions of 1 to 2 miles could occur around 12z.
Clearing and warming conditions expected this weekend with temperatures in the low 60s expected during the day.
High pressure will continue to build over the area. Highs on Sat will be a bit warmer as upper level ridging increases over the state.
Temperatures across the islands are in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints between 70 and 75. The Gulf showers to our north are associated with a pre-frontal trough, and will likely not progress much farther into our Gulf marine zones as the low over the northeast moves off to the northeast and the mid and upper flow become more zonal.
this is not an April Fools joke! It will be beautiful with light west winds and temperatures rebounding into the mid 60s across the higher elevations to around 80 across central GA.
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough over AZ, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft and resulting critical fire wx conditions out west this afternoon. As the trough and associated Pac front move east overnight, a dryline should sharpen up over the ern CWA as the LLJ cranks up, w/possible convection initiating along this feature after 06Z.
An upper level low/trough over Arizona will move slowly to the east over the weekend.
Scattered convection breaking out along a cold frontal boundary across west central North Dakota in a region of steep low level lapse rates. Cannot rule out some isolated freezing rain or sleet for a few hours around sunrise Saturday.
The main area of low pressure over central Colorado is pulling into the Central Plains. As a result, warmer spring time air will move into the area by the afternoon.
/issued 350 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): An initially zonal 500 mb flow over Dep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will gradually become more out of the southwest as the forecast period progresses due to closed 500 mb low pressure digging southeast into the through the Four Corners area.
Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis confirms mid and upper level ridge building over for today with a dry air mass. A cold front continues to push away from the region this morning. High pressure is ridging in to the local area from the plains. The front and following ridge will continue east bound today. Moisture will increase through today and Saturday as low pressure develops over the plains.
1236 PM MDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Issued a Wind Advisory for the eastern Uinta Basin (UTZ024) and extreme NW Colorado (COZ001) for the rest of today through 10 pm this evening as stronger northeast flow wraps around the backside of the low pressure system across this area. Also, temperatures in some areas were already a bit warmer than forecast so adjusted high temperatures today accordingly.
High pressure over MN will then reach wrn WI by Sat AM and gradually move across srn WI through Sat.
An upper level low located in the southern Rockies will be affecting the area through the weekend as it moves slowly to the northeast. The first upper wave from the low will start to affect the area late tonight.
Weak upper troughing moves out tonight with weak upper ridging moves in Saturday before flow becomes zonal. Pressure gradient tightens up as low pressure over southern Alberta moves into Sask and should help move/disperse any fog Saturday morning. Sunshine will help push temperatures into the low-mid 60s.
124 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A warm front will move through this morning, followed by a cold front this evening. High pressure will pass through from the northwest this weekend.
A positively tilted upper ridge produced a mild and dry day today, and will continue the nice weather this evening.