Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These storms, aided by the low-level jet, are expected to move into north central Kansas this morning and begin to weaken and dissipate towards the late morning. At the surface, a cold front will drape across central Kansas early in the afternoon and move into northeast Kansas by mid to late afternoon. There is also a threat for very heavy rainfall and localized flooding with any storms as the low level jet orients itself along the boundary. For Thursday the cold front is expected to move south of the area by the early afternoon. The forecast is for highs in the lower and middle 80s.
529 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Today will be dry and a bit warmer.
There is some concern about a loss of ice crystals in that area, but so far no observations of freezing drizzle or reduced visibility or anything. Low level moisture and clouds will finally scour out overnight, but a mid level trough will bring more clouds into WI.
345 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
Second, the upper low associated with yeseterday's showers and scattered thunderstorms is pushing into the Ohio Valley. Clouds and breezy conditions will continue through much of the day today and while it will be cooler than the last couple of days, we should be right around normal values for this time of the year. The result could very well be a few "highs" cooler than current obs. The passage of the upper low will also present an opportunity for a light shower today, however, it should only be enough to wet the pavement and will be extremely isolated, with the best chance in our far northeast.
1039 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Water vapor shows upper low over northern IA with narrow upper ridge over the far western Dakotas, and weak upper trof over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low center nearly stacked with upper low. Weak trof over the Northern Rockies will quickly move into the Northern Plains tonight, with brief light snow expected from NE WY into far SW SD and a very small window of upslope in the northern Black Hills. Skies will clear from west to east Tuesday behind departing trof with highs in the 30s to lower 40s and some breezy northwest winds.
High pressure will build towards the Hill Country tonight allowing for light/calm northerly winds.
1155 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Winter storm starting to wind down over the area at 20Z as upper low over northern Missouri tracks toward western Illinois. Rest of the period looks quiet weatherwise with a warming trend through the work week as upper ridge moves into the region.
The upper low that brought the wonderful dust and wind yesterday is currently making its way to the Midwest.
The rain has moved out but the cold front has not moved through yet. At 1 pm EST a surface cold front extended southward through eastern MS, southeast LA, and into the western Gulf of Mexico from a 995 mb low centered over IA. However, lows in the upper 40s are expected in southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle, where the cold front will have moved through before daybreak. Ahead of the front, areas of fog will be possible, mainly between the time when the rain ends and the cold front arrives. The cold front will continue sweeping eastward across the remainder of the forecast area Tuesday, with a cooler, drier airmass moving in behind it.
WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains as ridging aloft begins to move ashore off the Pacific Coast into the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is building across the Central and Southern Rockies.
845 PM PST Mon Jan 22 2018 High pressure building aloft will bring warmer days and Santa Ana weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.
256 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Weak troughing beneath an upper ridge over the region will keep quiet weather conditions in place.
A cold front ran from the low west into Minnesota. Another weak boundary ran from the low into southeast Iowa and then northeast Kansas.
MORNING RAIN WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THEN COOLER TONIGHT. The surface cold front was edging gradually east, located near Dothan AL and Panama City FL early this morning. Low cloud cover will begin to erode NW to SE into the afternoon once the sheared out 850 mb trough axis slides downstream. High cirrus will continue to stream over ahead through tonight as mean layer trough continues across the central CONUS. Temperatures will near the low/mid 60s this morning, with highs today upper 60s to lower 70s.
336 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Low pressure will track across the Central Great Lakes this morning dragging a cold front across the forecast area. Low pressure centered over Lake Huron with the leading edge of the cold front just east of Erie PA. Models in good agreement tracking the low into SE Quebec by this evening, which is in line with current ht falls centered over SW Quebec. Can pick up a few inches overnight but should come to an end quickly Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region tonight ahead of a deepening upper level trough in the eastern Pacific. This trough will will send a weather system towards the coast Tuesday with a warm front moving across the northern portion of the forecast area during the day. Some southerly winds will increase Tuesday with the warm frontal passage mainly over the higher terrain of Oregon. A flat ridge is over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon with an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska. A system will move ashore overnight and into our area early tomorrow morning with a trough moving to the coast Tuesday night. May need advisories for the higher portions of the Northern Blue Mountains and Wallowa County for Tuesday night and Wednesday but held off doing so until confidence is better.
1251 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Rain and snow showers will cross the area through Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. Temperatures Tuesday will fall into the low to mid 30s by mid afternoon.
Models show the low continuing to move off to the northeast, so there should be a slow decrease in our clouds from southwest to northeast this afternoon into this evening. The tight pressure gradient around the low should keep our winds up much of the day as they gradually turn from west to northwest. Models show high pressure over east Texas at midday Wednesday.
As the central CONUS storm propagates northeast, low level ridging will build into the region. With that said, model soundings indicate no ice crystals in cloud, so if precip does occur it would most likely be freezing drizzle.
Under the influence of the aforementioned northwesterly downslope flow, highs are expected to reach well up into the 40s(F) this afternoon with the lower 50s(F) possible closer to the Oklahoma border.
Wind gusts near 30 mph will combine with sub-freezing air temps and make for wind chill values in the mid-teens across the area. Lingering low-level moisture and northwesterly surface flow will help to moderate existing cooler temps for one more day before the next warming trend arrives Wednesday.
/Issued 359 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ /Through Tonight/ Fire weather has been the big concern today across North and Central Texas as we've had strong gusty winds behind yesterday's cold front.
Warmer temps this afternoon have mitigated the blowing/drifting, thus the decision was made to let the Winter Wx Adzy expire despite some of our area roads remaining closed or in very poor shape.
1039 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Updated some of the forecast lows for tonight to make them a little cooler. High pressure has built in over Colorado and will generally control the weather over the area for the next 24 hours.
The high-res models suggest this round will dissipate as it moves over our area, resulting in a short time of only snow. This and the warmer ground (from this weekend's warming) will make it hard for snow to accumulate. A cold front is also expected to move through the forecast area with the precipitation.
Ridging is working into the area. As lee-side troughing develops this afternoon, the surface pressure gradient along the foothills is going to increase.
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes tonight, bringing additional chances for showers to the area into Tuesday. After widespread rain earlier along a prefrontal trough, the area is mostly dry at this point. However, the main cold front will move into the area tonight along with the upper wave, and showers will likely redevelop, especially late.
939 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Updated some of the forecast lows for tonight to make them a little cooler. High pressure has built in over Colorado and will generally control the weather over the area for the next 24 hours.
An upper ridge will build across the Rockies by this evening through Wed. Downslope W-NW flow associated with this ridge will lead to dry conditions and seasonal temps both days. A warming trend will return to the region for Thu and Fri as the ridge over the Rockies flattens out with zonal flow across most of the plains. Medium range models all suggest that weak ridging returns to the plains for the rest of the weekend, with seasonal or slightly above normal temps.
1122 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Water vapor imagery showing upper low drifting slowly e-ne across northeast MO this afternoon. Trimmed the highs for Tuesday over the expected heavy snow area over south central MN into western WI.
240 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms today, along with gusty winds.
359 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Weak high pressure near Grand Forks at 09z. Drier air around the storm to our east clearing the low clouds southwestern from NE into central MN and the western edge of clearing is pushing into the far SE fcst area (Park Rapids/Wadena and may get into Bemidji for at time this morning). Models continue to paint some light precip stretching from the low southeast thru southeastern Manitoba and into far NW Minnesota as we head toward early evening.
The strong low pressure system that brought snow and wind to north central Nebraska will continue to push east tonight.
The cold front is currently just beginning to enter the wrn portions of MO. While some breaks are possible, with CAA across the region, have trended twd the cooler guidance.
The forcing begins to wane after 00z as the low continues to pull further east, but the column does cool considerably and thus the snow ratios increase slightly.
1137 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 A deep low pressure system will track from northern Missouri toward the Great Lakes region tonight and Tuesday. Vorticity lobes wrapping around the upper low within a deep cyclonic flow as well as the passage of a true cold front pushing across the Ozarks region will bring light precipitation mainly to central Missouri through this evening. This light rain could become mixed with or change to a light wintry mix of rain, snow and possibly freezing drizzle later this evening before the precipitation ends. A chilly and continued blustery conditions are in store for Tuesday as the low pressure system pulls away. A warming trend will return mid to late week as an upper level ridge builds eastward and southerly winds return.
In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast today. At the surface the cold front is currently (1 AM EST) near Montgomery, Alabama. This cold front will move through most of the region by mid morning. Rain chances will decrease around sunrise as the cold front moves through the region.
Watching the cold front finally clear the area this morning.
WV imagery shows yesterday's trough that brought a little wind to the area entering the MS valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. Out west, a trough is developing over SoCal/Baja, w/models closing it off over Sonora by 18Z Wed.
But for now, will leave precip out of the CSV taf as measurable probabilities are on the low side for now.
Temperatures are holding in the 20s underneath clouds, warmer out west over the bare ground with sunshine.
An area of high pressure will move in from the northwest and settle over the area. In response, winds will quickly become light and variable overnight With dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid teens, overnight temperatures will quickly drop. Looks like the I-10 corridor and the eastern parts of the Concho Valley will see the coldest temperatures, with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. These clouds will limit the amount of cooling overnight in these areas and overnight lows will be in the low 30s.
1025 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Impressive upper level low on water vapor rotating northeast into Iowa.
339 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 The morning surface analysis shows a cold front pushing across the region and the low pressure associated with the front pushing across the Lower Great Lakes region. This evening into tonight a short wave rides around the broad nearby upper level low. Temperatures dip below freezing for the first time in several days with lows in the upper 20s. An upper level low and lower stratus deck is still set to progress east and the stratus deck will work back across eastern Kentucky toward dawn.
325 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 40s with some mid-level cloudiness in northern areas due to the proximity of an upper-level low to our north. The influence of this upper low will be gone by midday, with any remaining cloud cover exiting to the northeast with it.
1051 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Impressive upper level low on water vapor rotating northeast into Iowa.
/Issued 324 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ The upper low is now over Missouri and a positively-tilted ridge is crossing the Rockies.
1117 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A potent area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes will push a trailing cold front through the Commonwealth on Tuesday.
/issued 332 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ The cold front is moving through this afternoon and had some storms earlier, but mostly just a broken line of showers across the area.
Patchy freezing drizzle will likely occur, but will fall on the snow. Precipitation type may be freezing rain or drizzle over areas south of highway 10 and to the lakeshore. Many surface temperatures are within a degree or two of freezing. This will clear out some of the mid-level moisture and limit the potential for snow, with any precipitation expected to transition over to freezing drizzle for all but the far north. By this point there will not be as much lift present, so expect any freezing drizzle to be light and ice accumulations to be minimal. However, expect roads to still be slippery in spots especially on bridges and untreated roads. Some cooler air filtering in behind the system may briefly transition precip back to snow before departing.
Models are in agreement large scale flow will be somewhat progressive the next several days with increasing heights/upper ridge building in from the west. However, to what degree will snow cover inhibit the potential for warmer conditions.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate most of Nevada today and tonight.
1141 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 As the upper level low that has been dominating the synoptic pattern across mid-America for the past couple of days exits Kansas to the east and makes its way across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tonight and tomorrow, the tightened pressure gradient will begin to ease off this evening bringing wind speeds back down overnight tonight. Over the next few days, expect a gradual warming trend as an upper ridge pattern sets up across the western half of the CONUS through the middle of the week.
Mid/upper low is over central IL with an associated low at the surface. Challenge this morning is precipitation associated with the mid/upper level low moving northeast over the northwest part of central IN. Air aloft is cold with the upper low and that could create mid level lapse rates for dendritic growth. After this little feature moves eastward from the area, high pressure will move across the area mainly just south of the Ohio Valley resulting in some westerly, then southerly, flow across the area.
We could see some light freezing drizzle this evening before a switch over to very light snow. Cooler temperatures build back into the region on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 20s. Weak high pressure builds into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
with a cold front extending southward through Ohio into eastern Kentucky. Clearing will gradually work its way eastward across the remainder of the area by mid to late evening: however, a short- wave trough currently over Montana will spread additional clouds and a few flurries back into the area overnight. signaling a return to warmer conditions.
/issued 933 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ Winds remain gusty from the WSW this evening in the wake of today's Pacific cold front. Moisture wrapping around the mid- level cyclone will provide an area of clouds across the region tonight as well, mainly over the northern half of the CWA. The associated cold front has pushed through most of the area. Temps this afternoon are mostly in the lower 60s.
Surface lee troughing will develop Wednesday with surface winds becoming southwesterly.
Some patchy fog developed in a few valleys last night and expect the same again the next few nights due to the ever present snow cover, keeping the lower levels more saturated. A ridge of high pressure will slide overhead Wednesday with the flow shifting to westerly. Still expect the continued presence of valley inversions so reduced temperatures through Wednesday night once again, resulting in cooler temps than guidance.
1215 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region tonight. Otherwise, showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the cold front across the region tonight. Cooling temperature aloft will support an eventual change to snow showers, but boundary layer readings off the ridges will not support accumulation until after dark. Northwesterly flow will maintain snow chances, again with the likelihood best in the terrain, through Wednesday before high pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the period.
Another cold one this morning with lows near freezing in the deserts and well below freezing south and east of Tucson. High pressure starts a strong warming trend today, with dry conditions and breezy winds at times.
A line of showers/storms along a pre-frontal trough continues to push E across Central Alabama this afternoon. The actual cold front is just west of Tupelo, MS, and will be passing through the forecast area later today/tonight. High pressure will dominate the weather across the Deep South for the remainder of the work week with the next chance of rain coming over the weekend as the next upper trough approaches from the west.
409 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Cloudy skies and cold air will be the resultant weather behind the cold front that crossed the region last night. A weak upper level trough will keep cloudy skies and a threat for light snow in the forecast through early Wednesday.
Outlook is for more to come with high pressure moving in and then our next convective weather maker not until Fri/Sat. It appears that cu field in association with the upper trough will remain well north of our region and thin cirrus will remain mostly south of our region thus there is not much to effect temperatures falling to forecast mins except for the wind.
Upper level low continued to lift northeast across Missouri into Illinois this evening with the backside of the low pushing through Eastern Kansas. low level clouds continued to wrap around the backside of the low across much of Northeast Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas. the low level cloud deck will continue to shift east northeast and exit the CWA late tonight/early Tuesday morning as the upper low pushes into the Great Lakes Region. Winds during the night should also continue a downward trend from west to east as the low pushes farther away with 5-15 mph west to northwest winds by Tuesday morning.
A dry slot will start the day with plenty of clear sky for a couple hours this morning, but low clouds/wrap-around moisture assocated with upper low over the mid-west/Ohio Valley will pull a good deal of clouds back into the area late this morning/ afternoon. Snow showers are expected across the higher elevations, generally at or above 3kft. A dusting of snow is possible across the highest elevations.
There may be some thinning of the cirrus ovenight and Tuesday morning but with a broad trough over the Pacific the streaming high clouds will likely dim Tuesday sunshine at times and may even thicken more than expected.
A strong closed low moving over IL/IN at 08Z will take on a negative tilt as it crosses the lower Great Lakes into upstate NY by 24/00Z. The trailing cold front will plow eastward across the Keystone State early today with above average moisture/PW available along and ahead of the boundary. The fast-moving cold front will limit duration but brief/heavy rain rates may lead to isolated runoff issues with gridded MARFC 1hr FFG as low as 0.
300 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with a frontal boundary well north and east of the region. Upper level analysis shows Low pressure over the western Great Lakes region, with a ridge along the west coast.
Much of Tuesday night is looking VFR for Tampa Bay/I-4 terminals well behind a cold front.
338 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Temperatures may dip barely to the freezing level Wednesday night for southwest Mississippi but the majority of the area should remain with a cold Wednesday night but will remain above freezing.
250 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Upper low over western Illinois will make its way ENE into the Great Lakes today. Seasonably chilly and somewhat raw conditions will continue into Wednesday, as another upper wave swings through the Ohio Valley and the low-level thermal trof takes its time lifting out.
The expectation is that this transition area will probably be between the James and Missouri valleys with clearing getting in here and points east too late to have a sizable impact on the high temperature forecast.
A blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction produces highs in the lower to upper 30s. This is about 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the straight guidance blend. Generally quiet weather is anticipated through midweek as an upper ridge progresses from the Rockies to the Plains. Temperatures moderate into the lower 40s Wednesday with the help of downslope flow and sunny skies.
41 Upper low and better short wave energy lifting north and east of the state as we head into the evening. Still expecting a fairly sharp cold front and associated low-level lift to sweep through tonight. Cold front should be exiting the forecast area early Tuesday morning taking the precipitation with it.
As a result, a sunny day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with high pressure building across the area at the surface.
Cold front currently over far eastern counties of the forecast area will be east of the region well before daybreak this morning. Drier and cooler high pressure will be building over the forecast area from the northwest in the wake of the front. With the lower dewpoints, mainly clear skies and light winds, lows tonight mainly in the mid 30s for most locations, except for some upper 30s and lower 40s near the coast.
Surface pressures continue to slowly increase in the wake of the cold front that came through earlier today with all precipitation well clear of the area. /BB/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Tuesday: Latest rap and satellite analysis showed the upper trough moving into the Mississippi Valley from the Plains. The cold front was tracking across our eastern counties with the rain east of the forecast area. For the period expect quiet conditions as the upper trough axis exits to the east as we get into a zonal flow pattern on Tuesday.
The surface front exits the area this morning as the upper level low lifts into southern Canada by this evening. A second short wave will move across the TN Valley tomorrow afternoon which will again bring scatter clouds down across the forecast area, and while temperatures will be on the cooler side of normal, still expect them to be within 5 degrees of seasonal normals.