Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry cold front has cleared all of SW KS, with elevated northeast winds noted in the post-frontal airmass. Sunrise Saturday temperatures near normal, in the lower 30s. There will be a large temperature gradient across the CWA by late afternoon, ranging from the lower 60s far northeast, to the lower 80s far southwest.
This evening, a clipper system and associated cold front will bring a few showers to roughly our northeast half per the HRRR and CONSShort.
Mostly sunny skies during the af- ternoon will lead to highs in the lower 80s. As the warming trend contin- ues, lows tomorrow are progged to range from the lower and mid 50s north. and the lower to mid 60s for the beaches.
Northwest flow aloft continues Saturday, with deepening downstream troughing over the Ohio Valley and upper ridging beginning to build upstream over the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures Saturday night warm slightly compared to tonight, although will still be a few degrees below average, with overnight lows in the lower teens to lower 20s.
Dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, which lends to below normal humidity for the end of March. An upper level ridge over the Western United States will slide east across the CONUS over the next several days.
312 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 One cold front will move east of the region this afternoon. Another stronger cold front will move through on Saturday.
A pretty stagnant weather pattern will continue through Saturday night with ridging aloft. While winds will be fairly low, minimum relative humidity values will be in the low teens to mid 20s for all but the immediate coast.
1251 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring some scattered showers to the region today. It will remain chilly with highs only into the lower to middle 40s.
Potent complex low pressure center over southeastern Canada will drag its trailing cold front through MN/WI during the rest of this afternoon into this evening. High pressure will then slowly drop in from the northwest, with the only lingering issue being strong NW winds. A tightened pressure gradient will remain in place in the wake of the departing cold front (and associated low pressure center) and the incoming high pressure area.
An upper trough swinging across Middle Tennessee has brought widespread low ceilings and spotty light showers to the mid state today.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front from the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley back through portions of the Southern Plains. The aforementioned cold front will move south into the Mid-South tonight, bringing a reinforcement of cool air.
A weak upper level system and associated cold front are moving across northeast Colorado at this time with scattered showers across the far northeast plains. The surface cold front will be shifting winds more east and northeast through the rest of the night. Impact of this system will be cooler temperatures today, especially over the far northeast plains where 700mb temperatures drop around 2 degrees C from yesterday. Meanwhile, upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to rebuild over the Northern Rockies and Great Basin with a moderate northwest flow pattern over Colorado.
151 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Aviation -- Today into Saturday Morning -- Patches of drizzle or light snow are floating through the area this morning, a product of lift and low-level saturation below 5,000 feet with the cloud layer out of the DGZ and warmer than -10 C. Precipitation associated with the cold front mid/late afternoon will start off as rain, but will change over to snow showers from northwest to southeast as the evening goes on. Areas of wet snow accumulation on grass and bridges/overpasses late in the evening may trend toward more frozen/icy snow accumulation on bridges/overpasses after midnight as temperatures drop below 32.
1143 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs as high pressure builds over NM.
This feature will dive southeast toward the lower Great Lakes region later today. A compact pressure gradient has set up overhead in advance of the upper system, creating gusty winds as a result with a 40 kt LLJ rotating along the base of the trough. Precipitation type looks to primarily be rain, though low freezing levels could support a few snow showers mixed in mainly going into the late evening hours. Upper ridging slides east going into the start of the new week, allowing temperatures to rebound back to near or above normal.
Temperatures are warm, in the lower 80s to near 90 across the area.
High pressure over the Pacific Northwest will continue to provide a mix of sun and clouds and well above average temperatures through the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday) It was a nice warm up today, with many areas rising into the lower to mid 80s. develop by late Saturday morning as high pressure moves east.
1147 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 See updated Fire Weather Section A cold front is presently pushing across the CWA early this morning, and observations are indicating northwesterly winds beginning to pick up with strong cold air advection behind the front. The deep mixing will allow afternoon dew points to fall into the teens to lower 20s - which is supported by soundings and HREF ensembles - and with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s over the western half of the CWA, afternoon RH values will drop to 15 to 25 percent over that area.
1100 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the region, but relatively tight pressure gradient still in place across the area is resulting in brisk winds early this morning to the east and southeast of the Black Hills.
257 PM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains. between a pronounced upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. A relatively cooler airmass (compared to Thu) -- deposited by low-level cold advection this morning -- is in place over the Tri- State area this afternoon. Sensible weather conditions will largely be dictated by the low- level pattern -- e. the 850 mb pattern -- where a pronounced thermal gradient (cooler northeast, warmer southwest) exists in the lee of the Rockies.
1139 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 The ridge of high pressure aloft will amplify over the Western US in the coming days leaving our area in northwest flow. Pockets of moisture have been traversing through the ridge, which have resulted in occasional orographic cirrus and midlevel stratus. Therefore did very little adjustments to the highs and lows for today through tomorrow night. Wind speeds will increase with elevation as the pressure gradient has not completely relaxed at our location under the ridge. As the ridge builds just to our west warm advection will continue and allow temps to climb. If the cloud cover becomes more expansive it could keep conditions a few degrees cooler than the current forecast.
A cold front moved through the area this morning turning winds out of the NW. Binary high and low pressure systems work eastward across the US/CAN border and west TX respectively turning flow out of the east. Unfortunately, this does not help warm temperatures much, but it does keep them pretty mild and consistent in the low to mid 50s through the weekend.
A weak surface cold front is meandering south through the Panhandles today with north northwest winds turning to the northeast. Slight cooler air continues to fill in behind the front with temperatures struggling to warm out of the 50s across northern half of the Panhandles. Winds will generally be out of the southwest across the western Panhandles with highs warming into the lower 80s.
High temperatures will be cooler compared to yesterday with readings in the middle 50s to lower 60s. we'll continue to be under northwest flow aloft with an upper level ridge axis slowly approaching from the west. Plenty of sunshine is expected with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 60s across the east/northeast 1/2 of the area and lower to middle 70s across the remainder of the area.
The region will be between building high pressure to the west, and a series of weak cold fronts to the northeast through Saturday.
Overnight low temps will be in the lower to middle 30s. The upper level wave will continue moving SE on Saturday towards the Mid Atlantic, while a secondary cold front will approach from the NW. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph, with some higher gusts at the ridges. Went a bit cooler than guidance for high temps, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s (mid 40s near the TN line). The secondary cold front will start to cross the area overnight.
As a 500mb trough takes its time to move off the eastern seaboard, we'll remain within a pressure gradient as high pressure attempts to move in from the west. Overnight lows in the mid 40s with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s are expected.
111 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 For this morning, clouds and even an isolated rain shower have made keeping up with the temperatures difficult, specifically with overnight lows being warmer than expected in our western counties. Currently, there is broad upper level ridging over the western CONUS and an area of low pressure dropping southeast out of Manitoba toward the Great Lakes region.
1103 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Marine -- Today into Saturday Morning -- Patches of drizzle or light snow are floating through the area this morning, a product of lift and low-level saturation below 5,000 feet with the cloud layer out of the DGZ and warmer than -10 C. Precipitation associated with the cold front mid/late afternoon will start off as rain, but will change over to snow showers from northwest to southeast as the evening goes on. Areas of wet snow accumulation on grass and bridges/overpasses late in the evening may trend toward more frozen/icy snow accumulation on bridges/overpasses after midnight as temperatures drop below 32.
*Warmer to start the week, then wet and cooler mid-late week. Late in the weekend, deep troughing will move onshore out west and begin to move western ridging into the Plains.
Snow showers continue to be reported near Lake of the Woods which is close to the the mid level trough axis, however a drier/more subsidence air mass aloft behind this axis is starting to shift east and any of these lingering showers should start to dissipate by late afternoon. Colder temperatures aloft and mostly clear skies late tonight should result in colder temperatures ranging from the single digits to teens for lows, and highs may struggle to warm out of the teens across our north of Saturday (may still remain near freezing in our southwest aided by sunny skies/exposed dark soils/heating. Arctic high pressure is shown to slide south over our region by Saturday night and even colder temperatures become possible, with colder locations in our north and northeast possibly dropping below zero.
The remainder of today will be under weak influence of a ridge of high pressure.
454 PM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains. between a pronounced upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. A relatively cooler airmass (compared to Thu) -- deposited by low-level cold advection this morning -- is in place over the Tri- State area this afternoon. Sensible weather conditions will largely be dictated by the low- level pattern -- e. the 850 mb pattern -- where a pronounced thermal gradient (cooler northeast, warmer southwest) exists in the lee of the Rockies.
Anticyclonic flow and a cooler air mass will cause overnight temperatures to be cooler across the Keys, with low temperatures falling to the mid 60s.
Breezy winds have slacked with sunset and should remain light until the approaching cold front slides through overnight. A tight surface pressure gradient will persist behind the cold front on Saturday resulting in another gusty day. After sunset, winds should subside with a narrow ridge axis building southeast into the area.
703 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A series of crossing disturbances will produce rain turning to snow showers through the weekend, with accumulating snow likely in the higher terrain. Precipitation chances will increase ahead of this boundary, though enough warm advection in SW flow ahead of the low should maintain a rain p-type with this initial push. Initial accumulations of snow will be limited to the higher terrain and likely solely on grassy areas given pre-event sfc road temperatures. Outside of the higher terrain, locations that do see snow will struggle to see accumulations given warm sfc air and lack of ideal DGZ moisture.
906 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Strong mid/upper level trough is over the area with water vapor imagery and JAX 00Z sounding showing a very dry airmass. Low level troughing is along the southeast U. With the cooler airmass, clear skies, and winds lightening up, expect temps late tonight to tumble into the 40s for most areas, with some lower 50s toward the coast. The region will be between building high pressure to the west, and a series of weak cold fronts to the northeast through Saturday.
Today: 12z upper air analysis this morning features a jet streak just to the west of a deepening mid/upper low located over the MN/WI/IA region, with drying shown in the latest GOES mid-level WV imagery from eastern Nebraska into Iowa.
High clouds will increase as low pressure slowly edges towards the California Coast.
We may see some small hail with some of the evening and overnight showers due to fairly steep low level lapse rates, and freezing levels only around 2500-3000 feet. The first wave of showers from roughly 8 PM to 2 AM EDT, should all be rain with surface temps still in the low to mid 40s.
An upper level trough over the Midwest will push eastward towards the NE US through the time frame. Locally, west to northwest flow will prevail through the time period, bringing cooler drier air over the area. Lucie Counties where the highs are forecast to reach 80 degrees. Upper level trough axis building into the local waters will slowly shift eastward as the parent trough moves across the NE US. Min RH values Saturday will be in the low-mid 30s over the interior and mid 30s-low 40s along the coast.
520 PM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building over NM with high clouds increasing during the next 24 hrs. Sfc boundary/high pressure building into ne/east central NM at 23Z with brief nely gusts to around 25kt to diminish with winds becoming se-sly by 26/06Z.
637 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong upper level ridging builds across the western US. Moderate warm air advection will allow for daytime highs to rise into the 50s tomorrow with some locations across southwest Nebraska reaching the low 60s.
High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend.
643 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 For the 00Z TAFs, the cold front which moved through the terminal sites earlier today is now well south of the area. A weak surface cold front is meandering south through the Panhandles today with north northwest winds turning to the northeast. Slight cooler air continues to fill in behind the front with temperatures struggling to warm out of the 50s across northern half of the Panhandles. Winds will generally be out of the southwest across the western Panhandles with highs warming into the lower 80s.
551 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 (This evening through Saturday) It was a nice warm up today, with many areas rising into the lower to mid 80s. develop by late Saturday morning as high pressure moves east.
Record high temperatures still look likely this weekend as strong high pressure builds over the region. This pattern will be short lived however as a low pressure system moves into the region from the Pacific.
440 PM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Strengthening H5 ridging across the western US continues to bring much above normal temps to western WY trough the short term period. Gradient also increases across the state, allowing southwest flow to increase for the higher elevations and the Wind Corridor from KRKS to KCPR.
228 AM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Upper level ridging will prevail over the region through the weekend. Expected mid 60s west to mid 40s east, as ridge builds across the region today.
Today: 12z upper air analysis this morning features a jet streak just to the west of a deepening mid/upper low located over the MN/WI/IA region, with drying shown in the latest GOES mid-level WV imagery from eastern Nebraska into Iowa. Saturday and Sunday: Northwesterly flow will be in full swing for the weekend, with easterly flow at the surface as a strong high pressure system sets up shop in southern Manitoba/Ontario. Cooler temperature in the upper 40's are expected both days, with some chances for precipitation sneaking into the southern portion of the forecast area Sunday morning. The precipitation will likely be a mix of rain and snow, as questionable dendrite presence and freezing to just above freezing will keep chances for any accumulation near zero.
A northwesterly flow pattern in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will continue across our region through Sunday between a trough that will slowly move from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic and ridging aloft over the western CONUS. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from around 70 degrees over interior areas to the lower to mid 70s over central and southern portions of the CWA. Highs on Sunday are forecast to warm into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees over inland areas, with readings in the lower 70s along the immediate coast.
High pressure ridging will dominate for much of the weekend with above normal temperatures. Daytime temperatures peak on Sunday with a few record highs possible as many valley locations reach into the 70s, close to 80F for the lower valleys of north-central Idaho.
422 AM EDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Unsettled conditions are expected through the weekend as a large upper level low remains overhead. Scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers will become more numerous this afternoon and evening, and change to all snow Sunday as a cold front sweeps through.
/Issued 643 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ For the 00Z TAFs, the cold front which moved through the terminal sites earlier today is now well south of the area. A weak surface cold front is meandering south through the Panhandles today with north northwest winds turning to the northeast. Slight cooler air continues to fill in behind the front with temperatures struggling to warm out of the 50s across northern half of the Panhandles. Winds will generally be out of the southwest across the western Panhandles with highs warming into the lower 80s.
Northwest flow aloft continues Saturday, with deepening downstream troughing over the Ohio Valley and upper ridging beginning to build upstream over the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures Saturday night warm slightly compared to tonight, although will still be a few degrees below average, with overnight lows in the lower teens to lower 20s. Upper ridging will continue to build over the northern Rockies on Sunday, in response to a deepening closed low off the western CONUS coast.
243 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Surface winds will come around to the south today as the high builds off to the east of the Panhandles. On Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves southeast on the leading edge of an upper high, it will help to pull a backdoor cold front across the Panhandles, this will help to cool off the northeast half of the Panhandles on Sunday over today. However, the southwest Texas Panhandle will likely get warmer on Sunday as the cooling affect from the front will be later in the day for these areas.
Meanwhile a cold front is moving into eastern Wisconsin, with gusty northwest winds, snow showers, and colder temps occurring behind the front. However, the deformation zone on the north and northwest flank of the upper cyclone will return south and likely provide northern and eastern WI with light rain and snow. The falling temperatures below freezing along with residual liquid on roadways from todays precip could lead to slippery spots developing on untreated roadways.
Northwest flow will continue through the short term period as an upper level ridge sits to the west with an upper level trough to the east. Towards the surface, high pressure will be the dominate feature across western Kansas with a stationary front draping from eastern Colorado down through the Texas Panhandle and along the OK TX border.
Early morning analysis showed the area under northwest flow aloft as upper level ridging was present across the western CONUS while a cutoff 500 mb low was spinning over MI/IN/OH. At the surface, northwest flow was also present, providing a quiet, cool night across the region with temperatures as of 3 AM generally in the lower to mid 30s, though a few spots had dipped into the upper 20s. A spot check of various model soundings suggest we may be too dry in the lower levels for anything to reach the ground, but enough ensemble members suggest at least some light QPF to warrant some low end precip chances in southeast Nebraska (15 to 20 percent).
Potent complex low pressure center over southeastern Canada will drag its trailing cold front through MN/WI during the rest of this afternoon into this evening. High pressure will then slowly drop in from the northwest, with the only lingering issue being strong NW winds. A tightened pressure gradient will remain in place in the wake of the departing cold front (and associated low pressure center) and the incoming high pressure area. This will result in mainly clear skies, potentially just passing high cirrus, but the cold air advection associated with this high pressure airmass will maintain temperatures well below normal over the weekend.
Cool weather continues into the short term period as a tightly wrapped upper level low (ULL) currently spins over the Ohio Valley.
Cool weather continues into the short term period as a tightly wrapped upper level low (ULL) currently spins over the Ohio Valley. An upper level ridge builds east over the Rockies, with cold NW flow persisting locally. High pressure builds southeast toward the region from Canada.
Breezy winds have slacked with sunset and should remain light until the approaching cold front slides through overnight. A tight surface pressure gradient will persist behind the cold front on Saturday resulting in another gusty day. After sunset, winds should subside with a narrow ridge axis building southeast into the area. Sunday's highs will be cooler as a result of continued increasing clouds with highs only in the 50s. The surface warm front will lift northeast as the 8h ridge axis shifts into the lower OH and TN valleys.
Light winds and the clear sky associated with the high, combined with continued cold air advection, will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will cool below freezing across the region Saturday night into Sunday, the coolest we've seen in over a week. Northwesterly flow in the low and mid-levels will continue through Sunday, helping to keep the region dry and cool. By close of day Sunday heights aloft begin to rise in response to an approaching mid- level ridge. The ridge will push through the Plains and into the mid- Mississippi Valley with a robust mid-level low trailing off the coast of California.
1215 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 (This evening through Saturday) It was a nice warm up today, with many areas rising into the lower to mid 80s. develop by late Saturday morning as high pressure moves east.
Temperatures so far in southern Michigan have been slow to fall below 32, though the risk for patchy icy spots on bridges/overpasses will increase toward daybreak under spotty bursts of snow as colder air continues to pour in. Where snow showers persist this weekend with temperatures below freezing, icing of pavement can occur most often on bridges/overpasses, and then more easily on the rest of pavement at night. -- Midweek Low Pressure System -- The global model ensembles have been persistent in developing a robust mid-latitude cyclone over the central Plains and Midwest in the middle of the week.