Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest forecasts are a little cooler for today and a little warmer for Monday than they were yesterday.
/Issued 737 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016/ High pressure centered over AL will gradually shift east to over GA through Monday with generally clear skies. High pressure will dominate the state with VFR conditions and a light NW becoming WSW by late this afternoon and tonight.
Will see more clouds today than previous couple of days, however, temperatures are still expected to reach the lower 80s along and east of I-35. A mid level trough currently over Mexico will move across Texas in the short term steadily increasing moisture over South Central Texas.
944 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 A ridge of high pressure centered to the south will keep dry weather over the region today, but an approaching cold front from the north will bring some gusty winds. The cold front will drop through the region tonight, but will only bring some clouds.
641 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 We are seeing a warmer start this morning than the last couple around the Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from as warm as the lower 60s out in Pittsburg, KS to 51 in Osage Beach at the time of writing this discussion. A warm southerly flow has taken shape across the region and should continue to bring warmer air into the region. Sky conditions will be mostly clear again today/tonight as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather.
The eastern pacific trough will slide towards the west coast over the next 36 hours. The cold front associated with the closed low looks like it will stall out just as it enters our north border.
725 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Strong low pressure system will part to the north, bringing an end to rain and snow showers today. Some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain could persist into this afternoon.
A mid level trough currently over Mexico will move across Texas in the short term steadily increasing moisture over South Central Texas.
A touch of frost could be possible for these cooler spots, but it should not be very widespread.
955 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Strong low pressure system will depart across the St. Some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain of northern into northeastern Vermont could persist into this afternoon.
654 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 An area of low pressure along the North Dakota and Minnesota border will move quickly into southern Wisconsin this afternoon and into southeast lower Michigan by early evening. We continue to have the highest POPs over far northern Minnesota this morning shifting them into far northern Wisconsin this afternoon. Expect highs from the upper forties along the International Border to the lower to middle fifties south. High pressure will build in tonight with the region remaining dry. High pressure will keep the area dry through Monday with highs from the lower to middle forties north to lower fifties south. Monday night finds upper level and surface ridging covering the area.
MORNING UPDATE: Changes to the forecast were minor with focus on the low cloud deck across the far northeast. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Cold high pressure moving across eastern Montana this morning. Upper ridge building over the state will begin to pump warmer air northward.
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. A crossing cold front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather returns for the first half of the week. The stratocu should continue to decrease through the afternoon under ridging. The cold front is progged for an overnight passage. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper and associated cold front. Can't completely rule out lake-enhanced showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the relatively warm Lake Erie waters.
839 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. A crossing cold front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather returns for the first half of the week. A clearing trend should continue under ridging. The cold front is progged for an overnight passage. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight especially in the ridges. Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper and associated cold front. Can't completely rule out lake-enhanced showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the relatively warm Lake Erie waters.
937 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Cool high pressure continues to settle into the region, bringing another day of dry and sunny conditions. From mid to late week, the gradient looks to tighten as high pressure strengthens to the north.
1049 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front extending from central Iowa into eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, strong southerly flow is transporting much warmer air into central Illinois. ranging from the lower 70s near the Indiana border to the middle 70s along/west of I-55. Breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are expected across central and southeast Illinois today in advance of a cold front. Cooler temperatures, but more normal for late October, will filter across the area tonight behind the front.
High temperatures for this afternoon will drop about 10 degrees from yesterday's highs, as a cold front now over southwest Nebraska drops south into the western 1/3rd of the state.
a trough of low pressure will draw subtropical moisture northward into Southern California bringing near seasonal high temperatures.
516 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows broad ridge still in place across southern plains, with westerly flow across the northern plains. A weak cold front has moved into our northern CWA, and is now moving into our NW Kansas counties.
Northwest flow aloft continues with the large upper ridge dominating the weather pattern over the Southern Plains and Four Corners regions. Southerly flow on the western side of the ridge allowed dewpoints to increase into the 70s in Haleyville and Muscle Shoals this afternoon, while only in the 50s in Eufaula and Troy. That boundary will continue moving northward, but with limited moisture and high LFC's due to the ridge in place we should not see any convective development. 14 High pressure will dominate the area through the remainder of the work week.
939 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will briefly build in from Canada on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the region Wednesday night.
920 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
still in the low 90s across most of the Midsouth. Upper level ridging builds back over the area on Wednesday and will provide for dry.
High pressure remains situated over northeast Florida, leaving Middle Tennessee under a SW flow at the surface.
Would expect mainly clear skies well before sunrise as high pressure settles directly overhead. Area remains in broad w to wnw low level flow, between high pressure in the se states and low pressure over ne canada. Spotty sprinkles/light showers will develop along the incoming surface trof, aided by mid-level moistening/cooling. These will tend to accompany the surface trof across northern MI thru mid-evening.
Any convection will remain very isolated due to the strengthening upper level ridge and not warrant including in this TAF cycle. Center of the upper ridge is expected to drift ewd over n TX over the next 12-24 hours, which will aid our temps upward a bit for the second half of the work week. Model guidance showing some POPs for these days, but doubting this possibility due to the proximity of the upper ridge to our region. Upper ridge is expected to weaken and shift further ewd for the weekend, which will allow for diurnal convection to return as a possibility, especially late in the fcst pd as a weak back-door front drops s into the region.
755 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will continue to sag south of the Maryland border this evening.
Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the western Dakotas. Upper level trough was over southern ALTA and was moving east about 40 knots. Upper low forecast to move across the area on Wed and produce showers and thunderstorms.
512 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure over the area will bring continued warm and dry weather through Wednesday.
Ridging, both at the sfc and aloft, continues to dominate the weather pattern across the state. The large, sprawling upper ridge still centered near the Four Corners region, has extended a bit eastward allowing flow aloft to become more northwesterly. Throughout the week, several disturbances will ride eastward along the northern fringes of the upper ridge, but the main storm track will remain north of our forecast area.
1208 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A cold front associated with a strong disturbance aloft will move across our region on Wednesday.
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A ridge aloft will provide quiet weather across the region for the next few days. Upper ridging remains in control of North Texas weather although there are a few spotty showers around this afternoon. The center of the 700-500mb ridge is located very near North Texas today resulting in a deep layer of light winds. The upper ridge is expected to intensify through mid week across the area but the surface pressure gradient will tighten some allowing southerly winds to strengthen. a weak upper trough will move west into South Texas.
(Issued 619 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016) For 00Z TAFs: Center of upper high now over the srn plains. (Issued 619 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016) (Issued 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows broad upper level ridging across much of the western CONUS, while an upper level trough was located over the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, high pressure continues to hold across the SE, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The weakening upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days, with no real changes to the local area forecast.
Otherwise rain chances will likely remain low for tomorrow given the strengthening upper ridge from the north.
Thunderstorms drifting in from the high terrain along the Johnson Mesa and Black Mesa should remain west of Guymon and Dalhart through 00z but may approach shortly after.
/issued 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ Quiet weather will continue through tonight and tomorrow as the ridge centered over North Texas continues to expand a bit to the west and north over the area tonight into Wednesday. We will see the high pressure bubble move towards the ArkLaTex region and allow monsoonal moisture to work its way into our area.
Pleasant weather pattern continues over the region tonight as deep layer ridging remains anchored over the southeastern states. An upper ridge stretching east over the Lower Mississippi river Valley and Southeast shifts east a bit. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s expected, with highs for Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure continues to persist over the southern half of the contigious US. As the axis of the high pressure shifts eastward on Wednesday, precipitable water will increase slightly to near 0.
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Currently - A pressure ridge extends from the North Atlantic into the extreme Southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico. An lower level inverted trough is riding westward across the area, and convective activity has picked up this evening. The convection associated with the subtle lower level trough will result in a higher than normal chance of rain through the overnight period.
1014 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will continue to sag south of the Maryland border this evening.
640 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 At 3 PM, a strong warm front was located from central Nebraska southeast into northwest and east-central Missouri. There was a narrow ribbon of surface dew points near 70 along the warm front. This was resulting in surface-based CAPES south of the warm front in the 3 to 4 K/kg range. As a short wave trough moves out of the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday morning, the surface warm front will move north toward the Interstate 80 corridor. As far as a potential round of severe weather on Wednesday afternoon, there are a lot of questions on where the surface warm front will be located. At this time, it looks like the warm front may struggle to get any further north of Interstate 80.
A weak cold front approaching the coast tonight will stall Wednesday, then bring light rain to western areas Wednesday night.
750 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Warm front along the KS/NE border region will continue to lift northward through the region tonight. For Wednesday, the cold front attached to the area of low pressure in northeast NE moves through the region. There is some question if any convection might develop immediately behind the front with the arrival of the cooler air, but that chance is low and will keep the forecast dry for now.
A warm front will return northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the area. Potent ridge runner cresting rockies ridge acrs MT attm of which will rapidly eject into the wrn Grtlks wed night. Otrws btr wmfntl push ewd of sfc cyclone shifting out the plains looks delayed til wed evening sw and northeast of there overnight. Aft that rockies ridge expands/shifts east in response to deep nrn stream sw trough that wraps up ewd through srn Canada by lt weekend.
The w/v satellite was showing the strong upper level low pressure area spinning along the Montana/Canadian border this afternoon moving east. The surface pattern had low pressure troughing all along the east slopes of the rockies. Warmer and more moist air was being drawn north this afternoon on good low level winds resulting in increasing instability. The one to the south will track across far southern sd/northern nebraska while the other low pressure area will track into North Dakota and then southeast across our far northeast cwa into Wednesday evening. Although, believe our best shot will come later tonight with the push of a cold front the northwest. Otherwise, it should be breezy/windy northwest winds through the day and cooler.
959 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Cold front becomes stationary tonight, will lift north as a warm front Wednesday.
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front along the Maryland border will continue to move southward this evening.
The highest speeds and wind gusts will occur at Amarillo.
the strengthening upper ridge should help to put a kibosh on most/ all of the development during the upcoming afternoons.
522 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far southeast MT, with warm front extending southeast into western SD and a dryline across far northeast WY. Cold front extends southwestward from central MT to eastern ID. Upper level analysis shows high pressure remaining centered over the Four Corners area, with ridge axis extending north-northeast into the northern high plains. Cold front will move through northeast WY early this evening and across the rest of the cwa overnight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 92 71 94 / 40 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 70 92 / 60 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 71 91 / 70 30 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 84 65 90 / 70 50 30 20.
/Issued 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ An upper ridge will maintain hot and humid weather across our area at least through the upcoming weekend.
647 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Warm front along the KS/NE border region will continue to lift northward through the region tonight. For Wednesday, the cold front attached to the area of low pressure in northeast NE moves through the region. There is some question if any convection might develop immediately behind the front with the arrival of the cooler air, but that chance is low and will keep the forecast dry for now.
For 06Z TAFs: A large ridge of high pressure will expand across the srn plains and into the sern US by Wednesday night.
A very warm and dry air mass will remain in place through this weekend as high pressure dominates much of the southwestern part of the country. Continued onshore flow will keep cooler conditions near the coast with the potential for overnight low clouds to return in the next few days. The forecast has generally gone according to plan with inland high temperatures today a few degrees warmer than yesterday and coastal temperatures remaining much cooler. Hottest temperatures were in the southern Monterey and San Benito County interior with the highest of 110 near Lake San Antonio. Coastal areas stayed cooler with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The heat has been caused by a strong upper level high over the four corners area that extends westward into southern California.
Otherwise, the ridging aloft will likely suppress any isolated convection which may attempt to develop on Wednesday afternoon. Upper ridging remains in control of North Texas weather although there are a few spotty showers around this afternoon. The center of the 700-500mb ridge is located very near North Texas today resulting in a deep layer of light winds. The upper ridge is expected to intensify through mid week across the area but the surface pressure gradient will tighten some allowing southerly winds to strengthen. a weak upper trough will move west into South Texas.
Did bump up clouds a little as high clouds from convection across Tennessee eastward to the Atlantic coast were riding southward on the east side of the mid/upper ridge. Our area will remain situated underneath a broad upper level ridge over the southern half of the CONUS, along with a lower level ridge over the southeastern states. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
920 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Weak high pressure will keep the weather mostly dry overnight and into Wednesday.
816 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure will briefly build in from Canada on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the region Wednesday night.
755 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016 After a quiet first half of tonight, a surface and upper trough of low pressure will move southeast from northern Ontario overnight. This upper trough will bring a chance of rain showers to northern New York toward daybreak Wednesday.
(Issued 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows broad upper level ridging across much of the western CONUS, while an upper level trough was located over the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, high pressure continues to hold across the SE, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The weakening upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days, with no real changes to the local area forecast.
925 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Satellite imagery this evening shows compact upper level low centered over southern Saskatchewan moving rapidly east with dry air and clear skies in its wake over much of MT and the Northern Rockies. As the upper low continues east tonight, winds aloft will diminish and the surface pressure gradient across the region will relax for continued diminishing of winds.
615 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 The warm front has taken its time getting back north today.
1209 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Weak high pressure will prevail across the area Wednesday.
500 mb upper trough weakens some as it moves thru northeastern ND and northwestern MN but still enough moisture for some showers at times over the fcst area. Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the western Dakotas. Upper level trough was over southern ALTA and was moving east about 40 knots. Upper low forecast to move across the area on Wed and produce showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will remain over the region this period.
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Weakening high pressure aloft and increasing onshore flow will allow the marine layer to build slightly through the week.
923 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Weak high pressure will keep the weather mostly dry overnight and into Wednesday.
811 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep upper trough dominating much of eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Wednesday night: A trough digging SE across the Upper MS Valley at the start of the period will interact with an upper jet, and in combination with weak low-level WAA, will produce a band of showers and some embedded storms across northern WI that will bleed into Upper MI.
416 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 The short term concerns today are the severe weather threat and heavy rain threat this afternoon and evening as the upper trough moves through. ahead of the main forcing with the incoming trough and surface boundary. forcing with the incoming trough should be strong enough to generate thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon and evening. The first chances arrive on Friday as the mid/upper low pivots over the Gret Lakes and brings cyclonic flow locally.
251 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a zonal pattern across the Central Rockies with an elongated ridge across the southern plains. A stronger trough is digging into the northern plains from the Northern Rockies. With faster trough passage in the northern plains FROPA is now shown to move through our CWA during the day today, with some faster members showing it south of our CWA by midday. Latest trends in short range and high resolution guidance is to keep our CWA dry through most of the day, with better chances late afternoon through the evening as activity along the Cheyenne ridge transitions southeast through the mean flow impacting our north and eventually our east.
617 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Warm and humid weather will continue today and tomorrow, with a cold front expected to bring thunderstorms on Friday and cooler weather for the weekend. Morning Update: The latest LAPS data depicts upstream temperaturesaloft warmer than 00z and 06Z guidance by several degrees. Friday and Friday night will bring the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms during the seven day forecast. Although the system's primary cold front will not cross the region until the overnight hours, showers could move into the forecast area as early as Friday afternoon. Timing of the cold front itself will be critical for determining just how much instability will be available for severe storms, but modest unidirectional wind shear should bring a chance for severe weather across the entire forecast area.
Freezing levels look too high for any hail threat today. The remains of this system, along with a trough heading over the Upper Midwest should serve as a focus for new storms Friday afternoon. Given a potential for a later start to storms that day, we should see highs rise into the lower 90s for most locations.
A few mid 70s were evident in the usual cooler locations such as Jasper and around the Oakdale and Opelousas area. the high pressure center was wobbling towards Shreveport area for today. possibly a degree cooler. the upper level high should retrograde to the west as a series of disturbances chip away at the ridge aloft beginning this weekend.
The same models have an upper level wave that moves through the area today and a cold front moves through the forecast area today.
The Bermuda Ridge remains entrenched over and south of the forecast area with a west to southwest flow continuing.
The more persistent regeneration has been occurring on the western flank where the higher dewpoints and more favorable MCS maintenance parameter extend.
With rainfall in the area, temps should be somewhat cooler this weekend. A bit of relief is possible from the higher dewpoints across central Missouri, though right now it doesn't look like sub-70 dewpoints will be pushing too far south into the CWA.
400 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Compact upper low along the northeast Montana/Canadian border this morning will move across North Dakota today.