Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE ROLLS INTO THE REGION.
348 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Midwest, and entering central Texas. A cold front associated w/this feature appears to have cleared Southeast New Mexico and is moving thru West Texas at 19Z.
UPDATED 2334Z A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MORNING.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN. AS RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES OCCUR TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING ELSEWHERE AS BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME AS SEVERE.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES MOVE E OF MID STATE. AND RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME MORE DOMINANT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS FROM THE WEST AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S SUN NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOC/W THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARM ADVECTION BY 12Z MON. -VINCENT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO I HAVE EXTENDED THE LOW POPS THERE. BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY FOG-PRONE AREAS AS WINDS IN NON-SHELTERED AREAS REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWEST LAYERS WELL MIXED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
A stronger wave was rotating east into southern Missouri but slightly better quality moisture was actually to the north due to the mature state of the cyclone. Will mention some early morning flurries here, but a clearing trend should be the rule through the day as northwest winds bring a drier and warmer airmass in.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN LARGE PART THANKS TO F-GEN IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES AWAY. WITH THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN WESTERN MN HELPING KEEP IT SLIGHTLY COOLER THERE.
S FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL VEER FLOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY TRENDED UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED DUE TO SOME RIDGING ALOFT AND CONTINUED WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL A BIT COOLER N OF POINT CONCEPTION. EXCEPT COOLER IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS.
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS, CAUSING REDUCED AIR QUALITY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FREEZING FOG ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE HELENA VALLEY.
This will carry snow and the potential for some freezing rain, with accompanying potential impacts to travel. A second system arrives from the west late Wednesday night into Thursday, with the potential for mountain snow and valley rain, and impacts from freezing rain across north-central Washington. KGEG to KCOE is expected to see mainly snow, but there may be some freezing rain mixed in on the tail end around 16-18Z. KPUW/KLWS is expected to see a mix of freezing rain/snow during this time frame. Light icing is possible in any locations that see freezing rain, but the speed of the system should keep any ice amounts less than 0.
400 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front with northwest winds around 5 mph was pushing through West Central Texas early this morning.
500MB CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS PERIOD. TWO TRAILING S/W TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS: THE LEAD TROUGH WILL SCOOT BY THE NORTH TODAY BUT WILL ACT TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND BREAK THE CLOUDS OUT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH PERHAPS MID 60S IN THE LOWER VALLEY AS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LONGEST AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER WITH THE LOW. WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE RIDGES IN BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
AND THURSDAY COLD STACKED UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PRODUCING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS.
354 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 The large upper low currently centered over the upper Midwest will continue on its slow journey eastward. Abundant cloud cover remains across the region associated with the low. With the clouds and weak cold air advection, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, with readings only reaching the upper 30s to middle 40s.
1152 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 Sunshine across the southern CWA associated with a dry slot ahead of a deep upper low over north central Iowa will continue to gradually diminish this evening and overnight. Cloud cover will develop from the north and extend southward into southern Missouri as the upper low continues to push east.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 17KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
The lower visibilities over Alabama and eastern Florida should improve some as the rain moves in - at least thats what trends have shown to the west. A closed upper low situated across the north central CONUS will slide eastward across the Great Lakes region today. An associated cold front will push through the SE today. While instability is on the lower side, there is enough for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop and thus have included the potential for isolated storms in the grids.
RAIN REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED AND ARE NOW2 GENERALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. 88 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
1159 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS ON THE WARM SIDE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
1032 PM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH N-NW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS COLORADO. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
1122 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH AN 850 MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN. A TROF RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MAIN FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THEN SOUTH INTO OHIO AND THEN MISSISSIPPI. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW SHOULD MELT ON THE ROADS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL TURN TO SW FLOW LATE DURING THE WEEK. MODERATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
1123 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE AREA AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND COVERED A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION'S MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL IN POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION AS VORT LOBES CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ONCE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
348 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 AT H5 UPPER CUTOFF CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED FROM SIOUX FALLS YESTERDAY TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF CLOSED CUTOFF LOW. LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH RIDGE THROUGH WESTERN CONUS.
As parent cyclone makes way across Great Lakes, its effects will be felt as far south as our FA. Otherwise dry remainder of short term forecast with High pressure incoming for Thursday.
/ISSUED 819 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLEARING UP NORTH WILL DIP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
307 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NY IN THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED AS THE MAJOR CLOSED UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT OVER OHIO AND TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CLOUDS HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES. A LIGHT SNOW BAND TIED TO FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HAS TRAVELED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IS ENTERING NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
234 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND MORE SO ON THURSDAY.
1254 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NY IN THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED AS THE MAJOR CLOSED UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT OVER OHIO AND TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY -SN FALLING OVER SOUTHEAST A RESULT OF 850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. PAVEMENT FOR NOW STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING CAUSING SNOW TO MELT BUT HAD A REPORT OF ABOUT A HALF INCH ON THE GRASS IN SOUTHERN WALWORTH COUNTY. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING ENDING MOST OF THE -SN.
144 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 An upper level trof extending south from a closed low moving east through the Midwest and Great Lakes will pass through the region today. Really not expecting much in the way of precipitation with this upper trof, but it will serve to bring in another round of clouds, which would keep temps from warming out of the 40s at most locations this afternoon. Thereafter, a large dome of chilly high pressure will build in from the west.
There is pretty much no snow cover left across southwest Kansas, so the official forecast will reflect the warmer WRF-ARW solution as the other short term high resolution models still maintain a slight snow cover, which is keeping temperatures down.
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT IS FINALLY ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS THIS EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST TODAY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU WED NIGHT. A MINOR WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ON WED. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A DEEPER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
433 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS THE LARGE CENTRAL CONUS CYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SECONDARY WAVE WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE CONTRIBUTION ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
As of 3 am, water vapor imagery with 500 mb heights showed a deep anomalous closed upper low over La Crosse, WI while southwest flow ahead of that feature continues to pull high level moisture into the lower Ohio Valley. Some locally dense fog will be possible, though the high clouds should temper that somewhat. The deep upper low will pivot 2 PV anomalies into the region today, one this afternoon then a second by evening.
/ISSUED 332 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
908 PM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW BROUGHT SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW CREATING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-55MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND HERE AT CHEYENNE. COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD PUSH OUR HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 40S AND THURSDAY TO NEAR 50. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 50+ WILL BE A GOOD BET WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. BY TONIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. THE BETTER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE.
WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS NORTHWEST.
956 PM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW BROUGHT SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. PRETTY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW CREATING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50-55MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND HERE AT CHEYENNE. COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD PUSH OUR HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 40S AND THURSDAY TO NEAR 50. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 50+ WILL BE A GOOD BET WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
/issued 515 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ A thick cirrus canopy will gradually shift to the south and east tonight as the upper-level trough axis swings across the area.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING WITH A DRY STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TOMORROW BUT A SHORT WAVE TROF TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AND COULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LESS WARMING IN THE VALLEYS THAT WEAKLY MIXED TODAY. THIS PLUS ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT SPREADS IN ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST WED NIGHT COULD DISRUPT STRATUS/FOG FORMATION WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.
WE ARE SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG AND WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. RIDGING IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THAT SHOULD NOT STOP THE SUN FROM WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREAWIDE TODAY.
1202 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 1001 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT -- BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KNOT HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS WILL FORCE A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT -- CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR NE ALABAMA -- TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD THIS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z THURSDAY. CLOSED LOW OVER AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARM TW ALOFT IN PRE SECONDARY FRONTAL PRECIP SWATCH PLUS ADDITIVE COMPONENT OF WARM MARINE ENVIRONMENT TO PROVIDE INITIAL MIX SHRA/SHSN BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SWEEP OF LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF WHICH SHOULD DECISIVELY CHANGE PTYPE TO FROZEN. UPPER LOW WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS TOWARD END OF PERIOD WITH MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW SO PERSISTENCE WARRANTED WITH POPS REMAINING BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. THEN AS DEEPER COLD AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT/TROF TO ALL FROZEN KSBN/MARGINAL FOR MIX AT KFWA.
337 AM CST WED DEC 2 2015 An upper level trough is over the Upper Midwest with westerly winds aloft over the CWA. Temperatures today are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s across the area.
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SRN MN/WRN IA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND. OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HERE CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRATUS PRODUCTION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WHERE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW COVER IS PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOME MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MODERATING TO ABOVE FREEZING NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS DUE TO A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH LATE LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A COOL START TO THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. SURFACE WIND WILL START TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL SUCCUMB TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGHINESS. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS IT EMERGES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE STEADY CLIMB UPWARDS AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.
Snow levels over the north may be on the low side initially around 4500 feet but should rise overnight and Wednesday eventually up to near 7000 feet. The next decent system will arrive on Thursday and should bring some decent amount of snow to the higher elevations and windy conditions. Generally 5 to 10 inches above 6000 feet with the lower totals south of US-50 near the crest. Local 12 inch amounts across some of the higher peaks will be possible around I-80 northward.
THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE HOW HIGH THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE WITH SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS LEADS TO HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD IN WITH HEIGHTS RISING.