Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Generally clear skies through most of the night will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across most of the region. Cold front which passed through today with some gusty winds has moved over the Dakotas. Pacific cold front was sweeping across the area this afternoon. Generally quiet weather can be expected through Sunday as ridging builds back over the region.
This northerly flow was also backing with height from a due north direction in the low levels to a northwest direction aloft. This was indicative of a high pressure system building over the area.
930 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 High pressure will bring much cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed weak high pressure ridge from Lake MI south to the Ohio River Valley and from the Upper MS Valley south into the central Plains. A weak area of low pressure was located over the northern High Plains. Visible satellite imagery indicated most of the low clouds from this morning has shifted east, however some stubborn clouds lingered over far northeast Wisconsin. Min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 30s north- central, middle to upper 30s central/far northeast and lower 40s east-central WI.
Cool high pressure builds into the deep south tonight providing ideal conditions for radiational cooling especially across inland areas away from the immediate river/coast. Min temps ranging from around 40 out across the Suwannee Valley to the lower/mid 50s along the river and coast where there will be a light north to northwest breeze. High pressure will build into our area from the northwest tonight, becoming centered directly over the waters Sunday and Sunday night.
Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge over much of the central CONUS building into the region, while an upper trough pushes off the Atlantic coast. With the high pressure in place, expect clear skies to continue overnight.
The low level jet is expected to affect all three terminals in the form of low level wind shear through at least 09z and slowly diminishing by sunrise. Temperatures overall will continue to be well above seasonal averages on Sunday ahead of a cold front stalling out in the southern Texas Panhandle.
740 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure centered to the south will keep dry weather over the region tonight.
Models indicate heights will be slowly rising through the night as the ridge bulges across the area in response to a deepening storm system off the West Coast. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon across portions of southern and west-central Utah have diminished with the loss of daytime heating, with the exception of a few exposed spots and high-elevation ridges. Overnight mins should again trend warmer tonight due to the warm airmass in place and the high clouds. However, the clouds are much thinner and across the southern/eastern portions of the forecast area so temperatures may remain on the cooler side there.
/ISSUED 844 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/ High pressure at the surface over Mississippi was ridging into SE Texas early this evening. /00Z TAFS/ Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved over the Mississippi River Valley allowing for winds to turn E to SE this afternoon.
611 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 It simply doesn't get much better than this for a mid-fall weekend across the Lower Missouri Vly. Low amplitude upper ridge still in place across the Nation's midsection this afternoon. Southerly flow on the backside of this feature has returned to the area with warm air advection in full effect this afternoon with temps hovering in the lower 70s. This feature is expected to continue rounding the upper ridge axis overnight before dropping southeast into the upper Miss Rvr Vly and eventually the western Great Lakes on Sunday. expect a weak cold front to track south through the fcst area on Sunday with winds shifting to the north during the afternoon hours.
Used a blend a model guidance lows, mainly in the lower to mid 50s.
Weak low level moisture advection tonight should allow min temps to be approx 10 degrees warmer than this morning. with an increase in thicker cirrus aiding in warmer temps as well. associated H5 high is prog to shift east and allow a weak s/w trough /currently evident on water vapor imagery over MX/ to move NE across the W Brush Country. greater moisture advection from the sfc to H85 is prog to occur as a weak warm front pushes north. Even warmer for Sun night as moisture depth increases across the region.
743 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 High pressure will bring much cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend.
852 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure aloft will continue to slowly drift east tonight. The increasing clouds and onshore winds will lead to a warmer temps and increasingly more humid than previous night. Weak low level moisture advection tonight should allow min temps to be approx 10 degrees warmer than this morning. with an increase in thicker cirrus aiding in warmer temps as well. associated H5 high is prog to shift east and allow a weak s/w trough /currently evident on water vapor imagery over MX/ to move NE across the W Brush Country. greater moisture advection from the sfc to H85 is prog to occur as a weak warm front pushes north. Even warmer for Sun night as moisture depth increases across the region.
Cold front was pushing across the area early this evening with diminishing wind and rh recovering.
/00Z TAFS/ Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved over the Mississippi River Valley allowing for winds to turn E to SE this afternoon.
1032 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 High pressure will build across the region over the weekend.
1124 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Strong low pressure will move slowly north from Maine southeastern Canada through Sunday.
Ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the area with clear sky.
This is especially true for the cooler portions of the area (southern middle TN and other sheltered valley locations). Wouldn't be surprised if a few places hit freezing right at sunrise.
slightly warmer in the mountains and accounting for the higher clouds that have moved in. Aloft, a weak upper ridge axis will be over western Colorado through Tuesday morning with weak northwest flow aloft over the mountains and northeast Colorado plains. At lower levels, building high pressure over the northern plains will increase easterly flow thsi afternoon along with increasing moisture levels.
This will push a surface cold front southward across Nebraska into Central Kansas by late this afternoon/evening. A pleasant weather day will be in store for Kansas on Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures and light winds.
However, forecast soundings indicate the low-level moisture mixing out through the morning, with any drizzle ending. The low pops currently appear reasonable. Monday will feature cooler temps, clouds, breezy winds, and scattered showers. Ridge builds into the region for Tuesday leading to dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
For 12Z aviation discussion below A band of positive vorticity advection will swing across the area today in conjunction with the upper low centered over Hudson Bay. Lower confidence late in the weekend for precipitation chances as a backdoor cold front lies near the region.
Convection is firing along and east of the Lower Texas Coast this morning due to slightly higher instability across the warmer gulf waters. /issued 356 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The 500MB elongated low pressure is forecast to weaken and get shunted to the southeast through Tuesday as the large scale mid/upper ridge builds into Western Texas. Eastern counties and coastal waters will have the best chances with the trough/shear line overhead while the western areas, west of I-69C, will see little activity with drier northerly mid level flow dominating. As the cloud cover will be less and rain coverage reduced will see warmer daytime temperatures.
High pressure will build into the state on Tuesday with drier air and near seasonable temperatures. 16 Long range models show good agreement with dry high pressure building over the region and dominating the forecast through the weekend.
As for the rest of today high rain chances with squalls will remain in place as Colin moves further to the north with deepest moisture continuing to stream into the region on the eastern side of the cyclone, with some locally heavy rainfall amounts likely.
High temperatures in the mid 80s to 90 degrees with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Slightly cooler temperatures on the backside of frontal passage with readings in the low to mid 80s.
An approaching upper-level trough will increase our rainfall potential to locations north of a Honeydew to Red Bluff line towards the end of the week. This trough will also bring cooler tempertures to all of Northwest California during this time.
A quiet few days will be in place beginning Tuesday with cooler temperatures in the 70s sliding in behind the front.
1033 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Early summer heat will remain in place for another 48 hours with high pressure over the Great Basin shifting east to western Colorado by Tuesday morning. The ridge will continue advancing east during the day Tuesday as a Pacific system moves across Idaho and western Utah. Still enough moisture hanging around to kick off isolated to scattered convection during peak heating, focused on the higher terrain.
1021 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Relatively tranquil weather is expected today in the wake of the cold front which moved through last evening. The next cold front will move southeast through the mid Atlantic states later tomorrow.
High pressure will be over Arkansas today, with a northwest wind flow aloft driving a cold front into the state late tonight/Tuesday morning.
Today, a passing low pressure system will cause slightly cooler temperatures and breezy southwest winds.
Showers and thunderstorms have been tracking SSE through the early overnight hours, associated with the W-E oriented 500MB trough and sfc cold front sinking across ND and MN. Will continue to keep afternoon light pop up showers out of the fcst for this afternoon, due to the low probability. Cooler air will sink in behind the cold front as a ridge of cooler Canadian high pressure builds overhead.
With the upper low just south of James Bay Canada, the Northland will still be under cyclonic flow. High pressure will build into the area from the west tonight.
Wave heights will be low but widely sct showers will remain possible given the proximity of the pesky upper level low that has lingered over south TX. High pressure settling over the upper/middle Mississippi River valley will allow for the return of SEly winds starting around mid week on into the end of the week. At this time, not seeing any precipitation over the region this morning but still cannot discount the idea of VCSH for this afternoon (given the proximity of the upper low over south TX).
Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms that form in the Coastal Plains in the vicinity of a weakening upper level low along the upper Texas Gulf Coast should remain east of all sites.
Highs in the low to mid 80s with breezy WSW winds 10-20 mph and gusts in the 20s and turning WNW during the afternoon. A cold front over southeast WI into nw parts of IL/MO to track southeast across central IL during the afternoon and exit southeast IL early this evening by 00Z/7 pm. While this feature will remain north of central Illinois, it will push a weak cold front into the area later today. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. Behind the boundary, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive for the middle of the week.
While this feature will remain north of central Illinois, it will push a weak cold front into the area later today. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s. Behind the boundary, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive for the middle of the week.
1203 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front remains over the Upstate of South Carolina with Tropical Storm Colin moving northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will cross the area late tonight into Tuesday morning with TS Colin accelerating away from the area Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend.
Periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible at times through Tuesday night as upper waves rotate around a parent upper low over Ontario/Quebec. A large ridge of high pressure will strengthen over central Canada by mid-week though, pushing the aforementioned upper low farther east.
Aldrich Modest upper level ridging will shift eastward from the desert southwest early in the week to the southern/central plains by the end of the week.
753 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front remains northwest of the forecast area with Tropical Storm Colin moving northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will cross the area late Tuesday morning with TS Colin accelerating away from the area Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend.
Some CAA advection in place again should keep temps a bit cooler than in previous days especially across the north, where cloud cover will be greater as well. Another weak vort max also dropping southeastward in the upper level trough could help sprout a shower/tstorm or two across the far southwest/south central this afternoon as well.
Activity ongoing and heavier rains yesterday focused along upper trof/shear axis extending along the Texas coast and further northeast. Shear axis loses definition as the day progresses with remaining troffing shifting southeast into the gulf waters as mean east conus trof shifts east, and south conus ridge expands eastward.
Elsewhere showers and storms will be spottier, but should also shift SEWD aft forming on the high terrain. Ridge of high pressure to our west will weaken as it moves over NM through Tuesday.
looking at a cooler/breezy day today with highs only in the lower/middle 60s across north central WI. Convection wanes this evening with loss of heating along with rapidly diminishing winds as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Look for a rather chilly night tonight as lows drop into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
UPDATE: The upper ridge axis remains parked over the Northern and Canadian Rockies this morning, resulting in a dry northwest flow aloft over most of Montana, including Northeast Montana. The large long-wave trough over eastern Canada and CONUS will have an influence on temperatures today, having nudged the cool boundary up against the Front Range. a large area of hot high pressure is spread out over the western third of the CONUS and Canada. A large trough drops southern from the Hudson Bay into the Great lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley. northeast Montana and most of the high plains lie under northwest flow wedged between these two large features. northwest flow aloft will slowly give out to the the spreading influence of the synoptic high pressure ridge to west.
Until about 06z scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, with local heavy rain. Upper low will track across northern NV today keeping shower and thunderstorm threat across most of the region.
Conditions will be slighty cooler this afternoon as low level easterly flow limits afternoon mixing. Showers and some thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain, mostly over the Beartooth Mountains, this afternoon. Water vapor imagery showed a pacific upper low in N NV undercutting a western U. upper ridge. Plenty of moisture was N of the low, based on satellite imagery, and showers and thunderstorms were occurring over E OR/S ID/N NV early this morning. Other isolated thunderstorms developed over the high terrain of W WY last evening, but nothing occurred over the forecast area. The east flow will limit mixing, so expect a cooler day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. It will be a warmer day, however, highs will be limited by the amount of convection that develops during the afternoon.
Monday will feature cooler temps, clouds, breezy winds, and scattered showers. Ridge builds into the region for Tuesday leading to dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.
A fast moving disturbance in the Dakotas will slide into the Great Lakes bringing some clouds to mostly northern sections and cooler air by late today along with breezy Northwest winds.
The week will start out with highs around 80 which are slightly warmer than average today, but northwest winds will keep highs on Tuesday several degrees below normal values, which means the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lenning 332 AM CDT Strong ridging across the western CONUS that has brought very warm temperatures to that region will gradually make its way east over the next few days, reaching the local area by late in the week and settling overhead for the weekend.
A strong ridge of high pressure will again bring very hot temperatures this afternoon.
High pressure will try and build aloft today into Tuesday with warm air still in the hills above 2000 feet while cooler onshore flow will persist near the coast and bays.
822 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2016 A deeper marine layer will mean slightly cooler weather today west of the mountains, but continued quite warm to hot in the deserts under sunny skies.
Will continue to see breezy north winds as cooler air moves in with the building high pressure coming out of Canada. Showers and thunderstorms have been tracking SSE through the early overnight hours, associated with the W-E oriented 500MB trough and sfc cold front sinking across ND and MN. Will continue to keep afternoon light pop up showers out of the fcst for this afternoon, due to the low probability. Cooler air will sink in behind the cold front as a ridge of cooler Canadian high pressure builds overhead.
and Tuesday Another sharp upper trough will move across Wisconsin today. Tuesday should be partly sunny and cooler than normal with a slight chance of a shower along the lake and bay breezes in the afternoon.
Latest high- resolution guidance continues to suggest some cellular convection popping where the low-level airmass is still quite moist--but this should stay just out of our forecast area (to the south and east) this afternoon. High pressure will then continue to gradually slide towards the east through the middle of the week.
919 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Relatively tranquil weather is expected today in the wake of the cold front which moved through last evening. The next cold front will move southeast through the mid Atlantic states later tomorrow.
An upper trough will drop south across the Great Lakes region today driving a cold front into the lower Missouri Valley by this evening.
High pressure will stay in control today, with temperatures moderating up into the mid 80s during the afternoon. Quick moving cold front will approach and move through the region tonight. The front will be moisture starved in the lower levels, but mid level ascent forced by an approaching short wave may result in isolated showers/possibly a rumble or two of thunder as the front passes.
a stronger cold front is diving southward across the great lakes. However, the main focus for the short term will be the cold front to the north. Forcing and instability will be considerably less to the south and convection will outrun the cold front. Cold front will continue pushing south tonight, but moisture will be lacking. The front will exit southeast early Tuesday, with cooler and less humid conditions spreading into the region. Cyclonic flow will dominate across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions through the middle of the week, allowing for welcomed cooler and drier weather across the area. An upper level ridge will then build in from the west towards the weekend, bringing a return of heat and humidity to the region. Did adjust some of the low temperatures down a touch in the typically cooler valley locations.
633 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 An upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes will push a weak cold front into western Kansas late this afternoon and then to the KS/OK border by Tuesday morning.
A subtle feature trapped under the ridge of high pressure will continue to drift northward today causing a cloud shield over north central Idaho into west central Montana. The ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies causing extremely warm temperatures. A weak disturbance trapped under the ridge of high pressure will gradually make its way northward today through Tuesday.
Mid morning today an upper level ridge resided across the Western CONUS while a longwave trof was sliding eastward over the Eastern CONUS.
1034 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period.
(Issued 337 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016) A very ill-defined cold front extends from central Virginia southwest to near Murfreesboro and just south of Memphis in Tennessee. Primarily, near and south of a line from Bridgeport, to Scottsboro and Hartselle. Drier air and cooler air will push into the Tennessee Valley behind the front overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, dropping temperatures a bit. Highs in the lower to mid 80s look reasonable on Tuesday with lows Tuesday night dropping into the lower to mid 60s. Much cooler and drier air is on the way later on Tuesday as another weak cold front moves southeast through the Tennessee Valley. Stronger northwesterly flow behind this front Tuesday night will bring much cooler/drier air into the area. dropping low temperatures into the lower 60s.
A weak upper low centered over Nevada will move slowly east across Utah tonight through Tuesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen once again across the Great Basin midweek. Morning sounding and satellite analysis reveals the upper level low centered over northeast Nevada and spinning up scattered areas of thunderstorms from early this morning across southern Idaho, northern Utah and far southwest Wyoming. As the trough moves eastward Tuesday and becomes an open wave, moisture and cold air advection (relatively) will again offer up chances for scattered convection through the afternoon and evening hours.
1015 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Reinforcing cold fronts late today and again Tuesday.
High pressure over the region will weaken and shift east, bringing increasing night and morning low clouds and cooler temperatures through mid week.
Sfc winds tonight should continue to veer to the south-southeast keeping moist upslope flow in place overnight along the southern Laramie Range and Cheyenne Ridge. Weaker winds aloft lend to weaker bulk shear, but still think strong to severe pulse storms are possible across this area in the late afternoon if the high instability materializes.
Surface map shows the mid state in a col area, with low pressure to the north & south, high pressure to the east & west, hence the light winds today. A dry cold front will drop southward late tonight.
/issued 549 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016/ Early this morning a broad upper trough of low pressure covered much of the Eastern half of the country in combination with a previous upper low that extended along the Western Louisiana and Texas coast have provided a shear axis across parts of the Southeast States, Louisiana and off the Texas coast. Another cold front will move across the forecast area on Tuesday providing a re-enforcing shot of dry air with no expected rainfall. The upper level ridge axis over the Western sections of the country will shift east during the week with a weak upper low along the South Texas coast riding under the ridge and once the upper ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area.
The deep layer moisture gradient will be advected east of the region beginning early this evening as an upper trough settles into the region. rain chances will decrease but will linger well into the evening as a region of relatively weak large scale ascent develops ahead of the incoming trough.