Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Still could be some flurries lingering over CWA this afternoon with upper level trof over the area. Despite the lowered snow totals, plan to leave the current Winter Weather Advisories in place. Otherwise, Arctic high pressure will continue to build into the area today.
With high pressure and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will remain below zero through the day.
348 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley remain near 2" criteria. Aloft, upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
especially along bridges and overpasses. The best chance for accumulations greater than 1 inch will be over our southeastern counties, as a low pressure area strengthens off the Georgia coast late Friday and Friday night.
1024 AM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Strong cold front making very slow progress south this morning and currently sits just north of a line from Grand Junction to DeBeque to Glenwood Springs and Eagle. South of the front, still seeing plenty of action across the higher elevations and in the Gunnison area where snow continues to fall. The current Winter Weather Advisories have yet to pan out, but patience is sometime the key with these slow moving front and will not drop the highlights just yet. Low temps in the lower valleys around Craig and Hayden will make a run for 30F below zero tonight with -10 to +10 common elsewhere. Very cold conditions expected Friday night with clear skies and light winds settling in as transitional ridging slides over.
1035 AM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Arctic airmass will remain in place into Friday morning, although some moderation will occur later tonight as warmer air begins to move into the CWA. This will support a warmer day, but still well below freezing most areas. The only area that may see temps pushing the mid 20s would be in the east central Black Hills where downsloping may mix down warmer air. Arctic high pressure will begin to shift east of the region this weekend.
Lows early Friday morning will be in the upper teens across our northern counties, to the lower 20s in our southern counties. Afternoon highs are expected to range from mainly the mid 20s across the Big Country area (along/north of I-20), to near the freezing mark along the I-10 corridor.
Based on latest runs of Canadian Regional GEM and NAM12, confidence has increased that a piece of the Lake Erie band will make its way across the Finger Lakes to the higher terrain south of the NY Thruway this afternoon. Ltl chg in the shrt term with an upr trof over the Great Lakes and a wsw flow of cold air in the fcst area. ltl chg in the xtndd pd as we slowly transition from a trof to more zonal flow. This will be flwd by cooler air once again. Pattern will become milder during this period as the broad upper trough over eastern Canada lifts north and storminess advances eastward from the Pacific.
452 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving system will spread snow across the region tonight, with the highest accumulations expected south of I-70. While much of the region is experiencing light snow at this juncture, enhancement in the radar reflectivities suggest that the upper wave is beginning to interact with the digging broad upper trough and associated baroclinic zone early this afternoon.
213 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 Cold front movg into ne TX. maintaining the low stratocu over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. weak isentropic forcing continues well ahead of this colder air mass and attendant H850 trough over Deep E TX and N LA. Have updated the forecast to extend low chance pops farther W to the Lower Toledo Bend area based on current radar/sfc obs trends.
258 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley remain near 2" criteria. High pressure ridge will keep the weather pretty quiet on Day 2 and 3.
332 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 The deep Arctic intrusion and mostly cloudy skies have kept temperatures below freezing this afternoon over most of the CWA.
1158 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving system will spread snow across the region this afternoon and tonight, with the highest accumulations expected south of I-70. This is not the main event, as snow will ramp up in intensity later this morning/afternoon as a wave digs through the broad and cold upper trough, pulling some mid level continental moisture northward. Snow will continue overnight with the highest snowfall expected in and along the terrain with some upslope enhancement.
Steam fog that developed over the Columbia River has been causing local freezing fog issues over portions of the Tri-Cities. Active weather will continue through the week as large upper level low pressure system is located off the northwest coast with a series of disturbances to move through the area.
However, an additional finger of midlevel frontogenesis on the nose of a narrow PV anomaly will slide down the back side of the upper trough this morning and through our southwest CWA, bringing another possible half inch of snow on top of the 1-3 inches of over- night accumulation.
Ceilings will gradually improve this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds into the region and should go VFR during the afternoon today.
Will likely also need to add northeast IA counties here in a bit, but current chill factor readings there are a bit "warmer" in the -10 to -15F range. Despite a very dry atmospheric column overall, there will be some flurries at times this morning beneath a shallow stratus deck as a mid- level trough swings through.
Lenning 316 AM CST Friday morning again starts cold, and clearing skies with approaching high pressure will not provide enough insolation to push afternoon highs out of the teens given the continued northwest flow.
With the jet overhead and a slight upslope component to the lower level flow, there is a good chance that we could see some locally heavy snow across the Spanish Peaks Region/Raton Mesa area starting late this afternoon into tonight.
Combined with the onset on weak WAA and the approach of a cold front, still looks good for seeing a few showers developing today. Strong cold front will move through the region between 00-02z, with increasing N winds ~15 kts at AEX, and 18-20 kts with gusts to near 30 kts towards the end of the period for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.
At the surface, a cold front was stretched from Victoria to Fort Stockton. There will be a chance for rain over parts of the south and east, but any precipitation should be in areas where the temperatures will remain above freezing and should be rain. Temperatures will be much colder with lows below freezing along and northwest of I-35.
The interlude of wind chills slightly warmer than advisory criteria this afternoon will be brief enough to make an expiration and reissuing counterproductive. Secondary trough ushering in arctic reinforcement will bring with it quite a few lower clouds through the day, as well as threat for passing flurries. Those areas near the lower Missouri valley below Yankton and eastward across northwest Iowa will likely find wind chills 8 below to 18 below zero through the day. At the time, likely will have a small area of east central SD that fails to moderate above wind chill advisory, albeit just a touch cooler than criteria for much of the afternoon. Weak ridging tonight will diminish winds, and turn from northwest toward more of a west to west southwest by late night as ridge axis settles into a Nebraska to Iowa configuration.
Temperatures will be colder Friday Night as high pressure moves into the area.
/issued 847 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017/ Quiet weather morning behind a cold front exiting the region. Surface analysis for the past several hours depicts a cold front exiting our region with drier air filtering in behind. A rather benign weather pattern is on tap through Friday evening as the aforementioned cold front pushes further out to sea. Expect partly cloudy skies, lower relative humidity, and slightly cooler weather. High temperatures across the region will max out right around 80 degrees, which is still around 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Another cold front, a bit more potent, should begin to approach South Florida by Friday night.
Cold airmass will take hold of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today with daytime high temperatures remaining below freezing.
The system will provide snow to portions of the southern Great Basin today before a cold front pushes through the region tonight.
Synoptic Setup: A large warm ridge resides over the Gulf of Alaska. A pair of ridge spurs jut out from this airmass across the Yukon Territory and central Alberta where they terminate over modified arctic air. A narrow synoptic trough runs west out of this airmass into southern Montana, Idaho, and Oregon.
A slow moving cold front will continue to push south through southern Utah today.
Cold air advection behind the wave will keep temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 20s for Friday, after lows of teens to lower 20s tonight. Ltl chg in the shrt term with an upr trof over the Great Lakes and a wsw flow of cold air in the fcst area. ltl chg in the xtndd pd as we slowly transition from a trof to more zonal flow. This will be flwd by cooler air once again. Pattern will become milder during this period as the broad upper trough over eastern Canada lifts north and storminess advances eastward from the Pacific.
This area will contain the highest probability for accumulating winter precipitation. Areas along and just south of I-20 will likely see a mixture of sleet and snow, and possibly some freezing rain. As the low level colder air deepens Friday afternoon, the mixture of wintry precipitation will shift southward and possibly reach the I-85 by sunset Friday. A winter storm warning will be issued for east-central Alabama, where an overlap will occur between the sub-freezing air mass and heavier precipitation amounts.
With shallow arctic airmass still in place at the sfc, cannot rule out some patchy freezing drizzle toward daybreak ovr parts of CNTRL/WRN AR as WAA pattern persists. Light snow wl diminish fm the NW later on Fri and early Fri ngt as the Upr Trof shifts EWD acrs the state.
200 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a trough across the Northern Plains digging southward into the Central High Plains. At the surface 1027mb high pressure is building south and the southern extent of this is over much of our CWA. High temperatures Friday could be complicated by lingering snow pack despite arctic high pressure moving east of our CWA and sunny skies prevailing. Regarding Wind Chill Advisory tonight-Friday morning: Arctic high pressure will continue to slide south over our region.
248 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Low pressure will track east of the area on Friday.
Rain and high elevation snow is forecast today and tonight ahead of and along a strong cold front, with the greatest precipitation amounts expected across the higher terrain of far northern Arizona.
Temperature confidence on the SD plains low Friday given battle between entrenched arctic air and snow cover versus warmer air sliding over inversion. Arctic high pressure will begin to shift east of the region this weekend.
Below freezing temperatures in portions of the Central Valley Friday morning.
319 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Low pressure will move NE offshore the US east coast tonight and Friday, while the center of cold polar high presure shifts SE into the Central Plains.
250 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving system will spread snow across the region this afternoon and tonight, with the highest accumulations expected south of I-70. While much of the region is experiencing light snow at this juncture, enhancement in the radar reflectivities suggest that the upper wave is beginning to interact with the digging broad upper trough and associated baroclinic zone early this afternoon.
Our latest forecast has the highest amounts around three inches near the Texas border in west-central Oklahoma extending east along/near I-40 to near OKC/Norman and continuing further east to around Seminole, where up to two inches of accumulation may occur.
424 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley remain near 2" criteria. Aloft, upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
18Z TAF issuance A cold front continues to push south through the forecast area, and according to surface pressure rises, the front should move through all area terminals by 05/21Z.
To see what is upstream we go to satellite interrogation and find an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes, with a trough stretching southward across the northern Bahamas and Cuba.
126 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 The main story for this TAF period will be the MVFR cigs for parts of the period and the cold front ushering in gusty north winds. The cold front will arrive at AUS first around 22z, then at the San Antonio terminals by 01z and DRT by 04z.
340 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 An upper level ridge was moving over the forecast area at 20Z. Underneath this ridge, a surface trof was located over western Lake Superior. The low level convergence near the trof and the cold NW wind over the warm lake waters, resulted in some very light lake effect snow showers from NE Douglas county through the Bayfield peninsula and the Apostle Islands. Will see little movement in this trof through Friday and will keep the same pops over the same places along the south shore to account for the persistent snow. High pressure will cover the region on Friday, except for the aforementioned trof over Lake Superior. Max temps will be a bit warmer.
A strong cold front currently moving into EWX's CWA, is expected to begin moving into our northern CWA this evening and through the CWA by around midnight. A coastal trough has resulted in light northerly winds across the coastal plains this afternoon, but will become increasingly north and strengthen throughout the night with breezy to windy conditions developing overnight, especially closer to the coast. Drier conditions are progged to filter into S TX Fri night allowing temps to drop to around the freezing mark across a majority of S TX. Currently a light northerly flow is located across the bays and nearshore waters while a southerly flow is located across the offshore waters due to a trough draped across the waters. A strong cold front will move across the waters tonight with a strong offshore flow developing in its wake.
A fast moving trough will bring precipitation mainly to the White mountains and far eastern Arizona late tonight into Friday morning.
This will support a warmer day, but still well below freezing most areas. The only area that may see temps pushing the mid 20s would be in the east central Black Hills where downsloping may mix down warmer air. Arctic high pressure will begin to shift east of the region this weekend.
318 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 An upper level trough will slowly sag across the Panhandle later tonight, and the South Plains Friday, with a notable band of frontogenetic forcing in the mid levels around 750 to 700 millibars. Our biggest concern with snow totals this event involves the dry lower atmosphere, say in the lowest 2000 to 3000 feet. So, moistening in the lower levels will have to occur top-down from precipitation processes aloft.
Secondary trough ushering in arctic reinforcement will bring with it quite a few lower clouds through the day, as well as threat for passing flurries. Those areas near the lower Missouri valley below Yankton and eastward across northwest Iowa will likely find wind chills 8 below to 18 below zero through the day. At the time, likely will have a small area of east central SD that fails to moderate above wind chill advisory, albeit just a touch cooler than criteria for much of the afternoon. Weak ridging tonight will diminish winds, and turn from northwest toward more of a west to west southwest by late night as ridge axis settles into a Nebraska to Iowa configuration.
A cold front will reach our far northern tier of counties in the next several hours before pushing off the coast later this evening. /ISSUED 452 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ A bit warmer today as onshore winds return ahead of the next cold front. Models remain (mostly) on track with the next cold front moving off the upper TX coast by this evening with freezing/near freezing temps possible across the northern FA overnight into Fri morning. So no real arguments with what we had previously where POPS remain on the low side (20-30%) and clearing out a bit sooner for Fri night. The next best chance of rain could be Tues/Wed with the passage of a sharp upper trof. Cold front marching south (currently over eastern Oklahoma trailing down to near Childress.
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Tonight will prove to be another relatively mild night with lows ranging from the low 50s to mid 60s as westerly to southwesterly winds around 5-10 mph continue across the FA. Temps will also be in the low to mid 90s again with the warmest temps expected over the TX Panhandle and the Rolling Plains where higher thickness values and H850 temps will be located.
With an 850-mb trof shearing as it pushes E into Central KS to induce flow just off the deck to become Swly & greatly increase the setup would be ideal for temperatures to really take off. Record highs are once again very possible in all areas as strong Swly lower-deck flow continues to keep a well-defined thermal ridge positioned from the Panhandles & Wrn KS thru Central & SC KS. This would push a cold front SE that is still scheduled to arrive Central KS Mon Evening then SE KS early Tue morning. The rain should end Wed Night as fairly strong high pressure pushes E/se across the Nrn Plains. Not expecting a repeat of the IFR cigs/vsbys as mixy winds keep the low stratus further to the north across North Central KS.
347 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New York.
Winds are expected to become even stronger than today's as the leeside trough deepens further. Between downslope winds, and a very similar 850mb thermal ridge as the past few days, temperatures will have no trouble reaching the low to mid 90s again on Monday.
537 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will shift southward today into Monday and remain to our south through midweek.
Gusty winds across the area today in the wake of departing cold front.
316 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Summer has returned to the Missouri Ozarks as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the region. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southerly winds continue as pressure gradients remain tight in the lower atmosphere. Record high temperatures will again be in jeopardy on Monday as an even warmer air mass advects into the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will be a degree or two warmer than what we saw today.
A narrow, weak upper ridge moves across eastern Montana tonight to bring about dry conditions. The pattern aloft changes significantly Monday when a broad trough swings across the West sending leftover marine moisture across the Divide. A cold front associated with the wave will channel colder air into the region resulting in highs a bit lower than Sunday.
407 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Cancelled the High Wind Warning for areas west of the Laramie Range as winds have decreased markedly through the afternoon. Accumulations will remain confined to the higher peaks, with an inch or two possible.
Ridging centered over Texas will edge slowly east.
344 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Upper ridge/dry air aloft prevailing across SE TX today. No real change with this pattern of above normal temps/no POPS until maybe Tue night or so when the upper ridge be- gins to weaken/move off to the east. Increasing moisture levels in its wake (courtesy of a persistent onshore flow) will then help to set the stage for increased POPS with the passage of a strong cold front on Thur.
Have upgraded the highlight in the mountains to a High Wind Warning. Any snow accumulations will be in the higher West to southwest facing aspects and will be minimal. with relative humidities in the low teens. On Monday and cold front does move through the area in the afternoon. albeit cooler. There is still some wind through the night on the northeastern plains, so despite clearing skies temps may stay above freezing on most of the plains.
309 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 The heat will continue for the next few days as upper level high pressure remains over the region.
1242 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 As previously advertised, our weather will be dominated by the interaction between an upper level ridge to our south and upper level trough on the West Coast. The cold front stalled in eastern NE and across central IA, helping calm the winds and clear the clouds overnight creating ideal conditions for fog. Rain chances for northeastern MO will continue to diminish through 7 am as the stalled cold front retreats back north. Monday will be even warmer and windier than today with highs in the upper 80s, low 90s and wind gusts up to 30 mph for the entire area.
Easterly flow will slowly ease over the next 24 hours as strong high pressure which had been locked in across the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic for the past 7 days weakens. Expect conditions to be a little less breezy, especially along the coast, with slightly drier and more subsident mean air mass on the back side of an amplifying mid level trough/developing low to the E-SE of Florida.
The upper trough will weaken this evening and translate east. The upper trough will slowly be replaced by an upper ridge. This will allow overnight minimum temperatures and daytime maximum temperatures to be roughly 10 degrees warmer than normal. At the beginning of this period, the upper level ridge will be built up again. At the surface, with high pressure off the Carolina coast and a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes into the Plains, we will be in the early stages of a return flow from the south.
The result has been persistent strong southerly winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere.
257 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Upper level high pressure will continue to reside over the forecast area through tomorrow with clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal. Afternoon highs tomorrow will again be in the low to mid 90s. around 15 degrees warmer than normal for this date.
VFR will prevail through the day with high pressure aloft and southerly winds across the region.
359 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Just a chance of showers will linger as an upper level system continues to track eastward through the Lower Great Lakes tonight. Near record warmth and dry weather returns on Monday with high temperatures soaring s in the lower 80s.
The high- resolution HRRR/RAP have been showing this for hours and have relatively good trends with current conditions. NW will follow in its wake Thu-Fri as a ridge and subtropical high develops over the Wrn USA. As the low heads toward the upr Midwest. A stronger Canadian cold front will drop to the US border by this time as well. The approach of this low should result in a warm front passing E thru the fcst area Fri. Tue will turn cooler with the rest of the week averaging closer to normal. A few brief hit-or- miss shwrs still look probable with the upr trof Wed.
Mild conditions are occurring across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas early this morning as a warmer air mass continues to spread into the area. Temperatures are currently in the middle 60s to the lower 70s early this morning, which are close to normal highs for this time of year across the area. 850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens C this afternoon and then into the lower 20s C on Monday.