Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few light wrap-around showers associated with the departing upper level low over eastern Oklahoma should come to an end before sunrise today. Other than some diurnal CU in the far SE CWA (hinted at most bullishly by the NAM), skies should be clear for much of the day with highs in the low 70s under decreasing northerly flow. Given the light winds and clear skies, trended slightly cooler on lows tonight with the mention of patchy fog closer to the high center in the early morning hours, especially along the Kansas River Valley.
1236 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 A strong high pressure ridge will be moving into the region over the next 24 hours. The weekend looks very nice as the high pressure ridge continues to build into the region. The high pressure ridge will begin to move off to the East bringing the winds around to the South and Southwest.
304 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 The upper level low responsible for the storms the last couple of days has now settled well into AR and continues to move to the southeast. With its exit, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 70s and skies have cleared with the exception of a cumulus field moving south across MO.
An upper trough/low is located upstream of the region (centered over Arkansas), providing modest west-southwesterly to southwesterly flow aloft. While shower/thunderstorm activity will continue in areas tonight as the upper trough moves overhead, the already low severe threat will seemingly end as instability lowers post-sunset, and as the deep-layer wind field is shunted southeastward with the approach/arrival of the upper trough axis. A cold front will approach from the west tonight and through midday on Saturday. Low level winds will remain out of the south this afternoon and evening followed by developing northwest winds through Saturday morning as the cold front arrives. Slightly cooler and higher humidity levels will spread across the area Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front moves through the area.
/issued 1047 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Upper low will continue to move away from the area. As the low moves away, clouds will slowly exit the rest of the area this afternoon. A few isolated light showers or sprinkles rotating around the backside of the low may still affect far SE portions of the fa over the next few hours as well. /issued 326 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ The upper low that brought storms the last 2 days is moving away from central Oklahoma early this morning.
319 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Weak high pressure builds in for this evening, which should provide slightly drier conditions and some clearing.
218 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 We'll experience one more rain-free day, under the influence of high pressure.
344 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Mid-level ridge in the wake of departing system will translate eastward across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles tonight through Saturday morning.
349 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the Ohio Valley this weekend as it moves in from the Upper Midwest.
218 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Near term showers/light rain are spotty but stubborn, and should linger through the day, as the very slow eastward shift of the upper Low across the Mississippi river valley occurs. In its place, comes High pressure at the surface and aloft. We see the surface anticyclone shift overhead by 12Z Saturday, while the upper ridge remains just to the west. So Saturday will be a nice day but remain on the cooler side, at or just a shave below seasonal norms in the mid 70s.
Models show another trough in northwest flow approaching the coast on Saturday. GFS, NAM, and ECMWF continue to dampen out this wave, however we cannot rule out the possibility for more showers with this trough.
This is occurring in advance of a 500mb trough which is quite far south for the middle of May. Additional showers are possible overnight and on Saturday as the upper-level trough axis slowly moves through.
337 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure exits late tonight.
252 PM MDT Fri May 12 2017 Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across most of north central and southwestern Montana this evening, as a cold front passes across the state.
A ridge aloft will build into the region today bringing warmer weather and drier weather to the region. On the plains the atmosphere will be capped as weak high pressure on the eastern plains moves eastward into Kansas.
Showers are expanding through north-central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon as an upper level trough overtakes the region. Once the colder air arrives to locations along the Continental Divide, late this evening behind the cold front, rain will change to snow. Frost is possible Saturday morning in the drier and cooler airmass that will be in place behind the cold front.
A mild day is on tap, with highs ranging from the upper 60s north to the lower to middle 70s south. Cooler readings in the lower to middle 60s are anticipated near Lake Michigan.
320 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Tonight will be fairly quiet as upper ridging moves overhead.
Upper ridge is beginning to break down as jet lifts from the great basin toward the northern Rockies. Impressive thermal gradient exists across the cold front in central MT this afternoon, with a 2pm temp of 82 at Helena and only 59 at Missoula. Cold frontal passage will occur in our cwa tonight, from around 03Z in our west to 12Z in our east. Much cooler day in store Saturday in a post-frontal regime, with highs only in the 50s in our west to mid 70s in our east.
Phasing of the emerging southern stream low and the Central Canadian to Great Lakes trough is expected to pull moisture into the inverted trough axis later today, which is analyzed from HLG to FKL. Trough axis and the bulk of the deep moisture will shift eastward by early Sat morning. troughing is expected to moderate and dry conditions for the first half of the new week. The aforementioned western trough is projected to amplify and maintain a Central CONUS, to Great Lakes and Upper Ohio ridge as the week begins to wane.
The low mentioned above will move northeast while the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted by Saturday night.
1112 AM MDT Fri May 12 2017 Ridge axis centered along the spine of the Rockies early this morning will slowly translate east toward the plains today. Large scale subsidence combined with a dry air mass in place will yield sunny, dry and warmer conditions today. Mid/upper-level flow backs to the southwest tonight & Saturday as trough across the PacNW and W Coast inches east as the bulk of the energy lifts northeast into Canada. At the sfc, a deepening lee- side pressure trof will interact with the right entrance region of the 100+KT H3 jet-streak to spark a few afternoon and early evening shower/thunderstorms on Saturday from the Laramie Range east into the NW Nebraska Panhandle.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions across the northern ranchlands and the Rio Grande valley through 15Z as moisture continues to pool along and ahead of a weak cold front approaching the CWA. /issued 335 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A weak cold front will move into the northern portions of the CWA this morning and into the Rio Grande valley this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture is limited across the area but an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop across southern portions of the CWA this afternoon as well as offshore the lower Texas coast. Expect slightly cooler temperatures tonight into Saturday as drier air filters into the area.
Steady N winds today will veer SE overnight as high pressure departs. /issued 349 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ A cool day is in store for today as weak northwesterly surface flow will continue as the upper level low that brought us severe thunderstorms mid-week continues to push off to the east.
North-northeast flow will inhibit any more of a northward expansion of this area of rain as it gets wrung out from an inverted trough located in eastern KY. Temperatures will remain cool - topping out in the lower 60s. High pressure will be centered south of the region at the beginning of the period.
But with a deep sw flow aloft btwn upr troffing over the w and the slowly exiting upr rdg axis that could lift pwat as hi as 1. Some of the guidance indicates a few light showers could impact mainly the scentral cwa on Sat before the sfc hi pres builds into the area and suppresses a lingering weak lo pres trof to the s. There is a great deal of uncertainty on the fcst for this time as the longer range guidance shows much uncertainty on how quickly a stronger shrtwv wl lift to the ne in the sw flow alf btwn an upr trof over the w and the upr rdg axis slowly shifting to the e thru the Great Lks.
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 We are seeing partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies around the area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Cloud bases underneath some of the heavier radar echoes were up to 10k feet and quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels.
Humidity will slowly increase on Tuesday, and will become noticeable as sfc dewpoints rise into the lower 60s for most by this evening. and to the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday. Lead impulses rotating through the base of the trough combined with diurnal instability will maintain chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wed-Thu.
Additional cloud cover will also spread eastward into the area from this activity, helping to keep temperatures across the area cooler.
1158 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
/issued 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Yesterday's upswing in convection across the High Plains resulted in a few MCVs drifting eastward today.
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 We are seeing partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies around the area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Cloud bases underneath some of the heavier radar echoes were up to 10k feet and quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels.
Another quiet night is in store for central Indiana under the influence of high pressure.
/BB/ The period will start with ridging over the southwestern CONUS and northwest flow over the CWA. Dry air in place across the region following the cold frontal passage this past weekend will keep conditions quiet through the overnight and again on Tuesday. /TW/ Northwest flow around an upper ridge over the western US aloft combined with the influence of high pressure will help to keep dry conditions for Tuesday night.
Where it remains cloudy, temperatures remain in the lower 90s with mid to upper 90s across the southwest CWA where it remains mostly clear. Temperatures along the I-35 corridor are running around 6 to 9 degrees cooler today than at this time yesterday, so this is obviously a welcome change. In addition to the cloud cover, northeast winds behind a weak front is helping to keep temperatures slightly cooler. Dewpoint values are currently in the lower 60s across much of the area and this will help foster lows tonight to be slightly cooler, in the lower to middle 70s with slightly higher values closer to the Rio Grande. Some of the high-res model guidance is showing a complex of storms affecting this general area tomorrow afternoon and will mention chance PoPs.
The weak upper trough will drift southward during the day Tuesday into Southern Arkansas before turning east towards the Southeast CONUS.
Increased pops across northern valley into adjacent nw Mn where convective line along cold front more solid and organized. Cold front just east of Winnipeg to Langdon to Leeds ND to west of Bismarck at 330 pm will move east thru the rest of the aftn/eve and with 3000-4000 j/kg sfc based cape see no reason for storms not to continue to form along the front. Tuesday will see north wind at drier and a bit cooler air. Brief high pressure nosing but some 850 mb moisture around so probably some daytime cumulus.
This looks to continue through a good portion of the week as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the northwestern part of the country.
Another decent night of radiational cooling to set up across the forecast area and leaned toward going slightly cooler for minimum temperatures.
Made some localized changes to the low temperatures based on last night and changes between tonight and last night.
Another upper trough begins to dig into the Midwestern U. through the near term, pushing an upper ridge from over the Gulf coast south into the central Gulf. Meanwhile at the surface, a persisting broad and weak area of low pressure over the central Gulf maintains light easterly flow across the local area, which in turn continues to funnel in drier air (PWATs under an inch) from the east and northeast. Overnight lows continue to run below seasonal levels, with temps ranging from the low to mid 60's inland and upper 60's along the coast tonight.
634 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 256 PM CDT Quiet conditions will continue tonight with slightly milder temperatures, in the low-mid 60s outside of Chicago and upper 60s in the city. On Tuesday, expecting fairly similar conditions to today except a bit more humidity (60s dew points area wide) and temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer in some spots away from immediate lake shore, along with a bit more cloud cover. Castro 233 PM CDT The days of quiet weather will come to an end for a brief time mid to late week before we transition to a cooler period this weekend.
Have inserted VCSH mention for TXK by mid- afternoon and TYR by 01Z as sct -SHRA should continue developing along an upper trough axis that will enter the region from the NW.
Focus then turns to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening along a weak cold front. The next concern is watching a cold front sliding into the area from the northwest on Tuesday.
Dry northeasterly flow will persist across our area through tomorrow morning, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 60s across our area.
Upper-level trough passage and the attendant cold front will be the focus for increased chances for precipitation beginning Tuesday evening. Thankfully, it seems at least portions of NE Montana could get a good wetting rain with this cold front.
The upper-ridge that has nosed its way into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will slowly retreat back to the west overnight. These clouds (along with a little more boundary layer moisture) should help to overnight lows a few degrees warmer than last night, generally bottoming out in the mid to perhaps upper 60s in a few urbanized spots in the HSV Metro. As mentioned, the upper-ridge will slide off to the west, allowing for a fairly weak upper-level trough to drop southeast into the region on Tuesday.
Emily will move off the coast early Tue, but will likely begin to strengthen once more as it moves eastward over the open Atlc/warmer waters.
With this, many locations should dip down into the low 60s - values that haven't been reached since mid to late June. /Issued 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Another mild night in store for north and central Georgia as dry high pressure continues to be the main influence over the region.
Mid level moisture on the western side of an upper high centered near the Nevada border was moving into eastern Oregon. The moisture will continue to advect eastward on the northern periphery of the high pressure and into SE Oregon and SW Idaho for a slight chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon.
936 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 With high pressure to the north of the area and the frontal boundary across central Florida will maintain a northeasterly flow pattern across the region overnight.
High clouds lingering a bit across southern WI as weak mid-level trof lingers over the area.
High pressure will begin to move off to the east on Tuesday. /issued 343 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ A broad ridge at 500 hPa is currently centered over south central Texas this afternoon.
Swly sfc flow ahead of a Canadian cold front may lift the weak boundary over central WI nwd on Tue, so expect another dry and warm day in srn WI. The cold front will slowly pass late Tue nt and Wed with chances of storms forecast, more probable near the IL border in the afternoon. A 70 kt jet streak will then aid in digging an upper trough into the Upper MS River Vally by 00Z Fri.
1041 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mainly dry over the next few days. The majority of the region will remain under the influence of a fair weather high pressure system. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that heights aloft will begin to fall this period, as a large-scale upper trough digs into the northern Lakes region. Although the associated surface cold front will still be well upstream at this time across the Midwest, and slow moving at that, there appears to be enough instability and moisture advection into CNY/NEPA by afternoon for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will slowly shift east allowing increasing humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms.
This trough should move into the region tomorrow afternoon.
/Issued 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Another mild night in store for north and central Georgia as dry high pressure continues to be the main influence over the region.
Over the next 48 hours a 500 mb trough axis will generally locate across the region.
645 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Increased pops across northern valley into adjacent nw Mn where convective line along cold front more solid and organized. Cold front just east of Winnipeg to Langdon to Leeds ND to west of Bismarck at 330 pm will move east thru the rest of the aftn/eve and with 3000-4000 j/kg sfc based cape see no reason for storms not to continue to form along the front. Tuesday will see north wind at drier and a bit cooler air. Brief high pressure nosing but some 850 mb moisture around so probably some daytime cumulus.
The large scale pattern features a 500 mb anticyclone that is centered over the OR/NV/ID border area, with another high over west TX. Our area was in weak northwest flow, with a weak closed low dropping southeast across northern IA according to recent water vapor satellite imagery. A trough extends back to the southwest from that low into NE. Airmass ahead of that front should warm a bit, and have highs on Tuesday a few degrees warmer than today.
959 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
The deep layer trough is still in place digging deep into south Florida, and upper level conditions remain favorable for convection. The evening Key West sounding found a worked over environment in the lower troposphere, and almost no CAPE.
Shower and thunderstorm activity was initially over the higher terrain earlier today and along the international border.
436 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 August will begin with much warmer than average temperatures.
Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM that the NW-SE oriented upper ridge axis over the CWA/MSA will slowly shift SWD during the period as an upper trough approaches the CWA/MSA from the north. The MSAS also depicts a weak circulation/trough over the NWRN Gulf of Mexico, and the deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF move this feature WWD overnight and near the Coast early Tuesday. Tuesday, will forecast isolated convection over especially the ERN CWA/MSA, associated with the foregoing weak trough/circulation (coverage only isolated given moisture considerations.
Low CIG and MVFR VIS will possibly develop AFT 01/06Z as a weak cold front approaches the region and interacts with moist environment. /Issued 337 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ Current observations are showing some showers and low topped thunderstorms developing downstream of a 700-500 hPa positive tilted trough with its axis over the northwestern Panhandles. Upstream of the trough axis, some mid level dry air intrusion in- conjunction with a region of mid level convergence is inhibiting some thunderstorm activity across the far northern TX and OK Panhandles.
658 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Dry weather will continue into tonight as high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the area. However, this ridge will slowly shift east into tomorrow which will allow warmer temps and higher dewpoints into the area. This return of warmer temps and moisture will also increase the instability across the CWA. Warmer temps will return with the ridge shifting east and return flow coming back to the area. Still unsure if there will be a boundary, but with the ridge further east and more return flow of moisture will have chance pops for Wed and then reduce it to slight chance over most of the area for Wed night.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region providing hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal Tuesday with highs in the 90s and topping 100 in some areas around the Lower Columbia Basin.
The bigger synoptic picture shows our broad, upper (H5) ridge still dominant across the western U.
Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected. Upper ridge axis across NRN California will keep us in a SE flow across the region with continued warm temperatures. A developing low pressure center off the SOCAL coast will work in conjunction with the ridge to pump up moisture into the region.
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had an elongated area of high pressure extending from west Texas into southern Oregon.
Clipper trough over the Central Plains states is forcing the upper high centroid over west TX to get pushed swwd and join forces with the centroid over NV.
1008 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain and gradually modify over the Carolinas, between an offshore frontal zone and a trough in the immediate lee of the southern and central Appalachians, through mid- week. At the surface, 1019 mb high pressure centered about 100 miles east of Norfolk VA will continue to ridge across central and ern NC tonight, while a trough lingers in the immediate lee of the srn and central Appalachians. High clouds just ahead of this approaching trough will spread into the area, thickest over the western CWA, where skies will be fair with milky sunshine, while eastern sections will see greater insolation. Lows in the low-mid 60s.
1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had an elongated area of high pressure extending from west Texas into southern Oregon.
Starting to see convection fire up along the cold front as it advances southward across ND and into extreme northwest SD. Then, there should be some degree of filling in along the cold front as it moves south. Have a feeling some of the low end POPs Tuesday morning may be overdone a bit, with many locations staying dry.
708 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure to the north will keep the weather dry and seasonable.
Forecast concerns this period focus on the thunderstorms and severe weather threat associated with a cold front moving through central North Dakota late this afternoon.
657 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will continue to weaken over the area.
100 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will slowly shift east allowing increasing humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms.
They are not affecting temperatures much, as they have dropped in those locations into the low to mid 70s. They also show this high cloudiness developing southward in western Tennessee this evening and then moving it into northern Alabama after midnight. This should help to keep lows maybe a degree or so warmer (in the mid to upper 60s) than previously thought. As mentioned, the upper-ridge will slide off to the west, allowing for a fairly weak upper-level trough to drop southeast into the region on Tuesday.
A weak cold front dropping through the area along with a narrow band of higher mid-level theta-e has been triggering showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over northern Lower Michigan, aided by the higher terrain. Max temperatures will again warm into the low-upper 80s with little change in thermal profiles and a little more cloud cover.
748 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday.