Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A cold front located across the Upper Great Lakes will move across the area late tonight into Friday. A ridge will build in behind the trough and slowly move east over the weekend.
On the western extent of low level high pressure, moderate (<10 knot) south/southwest flow will prevail in the 1000-700 mb layer Friday and Saturday, allowing for an active sea-breeze front both days. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s and will dip to the mid 70s overnight.
329 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Long wave pattern with a trof to our east is producing northwest flow aloft.
210 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend.
407 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 An area of high pressure builds across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes today, but despite this there will be a chance for showers in some locations across the Northland today. A weak mid-level disturbance moving across the northwest flow aloft will aid in a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing this afternoon, with the highest chance across areas around Lake Superior due to the lake breeze acting as a boundary for showers to develop on. Still, at least a conditional risk for showers and storms, with the best chance for thunderstorms along and south of the Highway 210 corridor in east central Minnesota. Highs Saturday warmer in the mid 70s with south-southwest increasing to 5-10mph with gusts to 20mph possible.
340 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. North of the ridge a pressure trough will be in the forecast area. There will also be weak upper troughing over the area. We followed the high-resolution models with the placement of highest pops. Leaned toward the higher maximum temperature guidance based on recent verification. Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature forecast. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico during much of the medium-range period. The models showed some troughing in the forecast area. The models indicated upper ridging early but troughing along the east coast by the middle of the week.
Prefer a more northern location on where this outflow will play out, mainly along or north of I-70, with this outflow connecting with the lee trough to the NW of the forecast area in the high plains. Think the high plains will be where convection will develop initially late this afternoon into this evening, with the main instability axis expected to be located from KGLD to KGBD to sw of KICT, with bulk shear values of 45-50 kts. Ketcham The rest of the weekend into the work week will be characterized by the rising mid level heights, with the subtropical ridge building across the entire plains.
527 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 An upper trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will influence area weather. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity today and the cloud cover it will generate will keep afternoon high temperatures near to slightly cooler than normal. The upper level trough extending southward from the Great lakes region over the Southeastern States shows signs of filling but the southern extension still lingers over the forecast area. 9 inches and a broad area of low pressure projected at the surface will serve as a focus for convection as diurnal heating drives up instability.
436 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Latest surface analysis continue to show a ridge of high pressure over the north half of Gulf of Mexico. Upper air analysis showed a high over the southwest CONUS and another just off the east coast, weak trough axis from central Tennessee to Mississippi coastal waters and a short wave over Oklahoma. Upper level high will remain over southwest CONUS as the short wave will drop into the trough late tonight. This will maintain the weak trough axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley and forecast area through Saturday.
The models show the upper level flow transitioning from cooler northwest flow to a warmer southwest flow through Saturday night. Secondly, a short wave trough dropping southeast will bring some showers/storms to the western cwa tonight. Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with mostly sunny skies across the region with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The models show upper level troughing developing over the Pacific Northwest through the period as heights build over our region. With waa returning along with some short wave troughs/triggers moving in from the southwest Friday night through Saturday night, have increasing chances of showers/storms through this time period.
A weak midlevel trough over Middle TN tonight is keeping some light showers going over the Plateau. Will have pops in the high chance range for most spots.
Very weak cold front should slip into the region later tonight/Fri. Conditions should also be slightly cooler and less humid with this air mass.
158 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 A warm front has passed through the Tri-State Region. A cold front will track through the area Friday night. The cold front will remain nearly stationary south of the region through the weekend.
A slow moving cold front over Central Indiana will push south of the state tonight. High pressure in the wake of the front is expected to build across central Indiana on Friday and keep dry weather across the state for the weekend. The next best chance for rain will be early next work week as a cold front sags into the Ohio Valley from the upper midwest.
The gfs/nam seems to latch on to this feature across central and eastern North Dakota Friday resulting in another round of convection friday in the warmer hours of the day. This correlates well with the highest Cape/Shear environment.
554 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAF issuance Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just north of the PAH forecast area.
337 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A low pressure system is making its way toward the Northern Rockies this morning. In addition, occasional breezy winds will increase this afternoon/evening as this low tracks eastward today. Cooler temperatures of around 5-15 degrees below normal are anticipated Saturday in the wake of the cooler air mass from the low.
A cold front passes Friday into Saturday. Cold front will be slowly working its way through the CWA and will stall in a northeast-southwest oriented line next to the mountains.
An upper level low spinning over southwest British Columbia will move east over the next 24 hours and be centered over the northern tip of Idaho. This will keep the forecast area on the southern and dry side of the upper level low. The main impact of the low will be some breezy westerly winds and slightly cooler temepratures on Friday.
As energy from the upper level low over western Montana continue to stream across the area, we will see better instability across the area. Given the higher LCL still thing that the main threat will be wind and hail.
338 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Weak high pressure over the area early this morning. Though if low level jet is stronger than progged enough instability north of the surface warm front (which will be nr the ND/SD border) could have some hailers in SE ND/wnctrl MN Saturday night.
A cold front passes today into Saturday. with convection refiring this afternoon as a cold front.
1028 PM PDT Thu Jul 14 2016 Expect breezy conditions tonight across the Cascade east slopes and west Central Basin as another Pacific weather system moves into the area bringing cooler air.
Persistent high pressure and persistent upper 60s and 70s dewpoints will create high heat indices in the 105-108 range east of the I-35 corridor.
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Clouds will increase as a cold front moves across the area this morning. Overnight lows ahead of the front should fall into the lower to middle 60s by daybreak. Low temps expected to drop into the lower and middle 60s with decreasing dew points and humidity. high pressure will slide across the area Friday night and Saturday providing dry and comfortable weather.
339 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016 A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley today initiating showers and thunderstorms. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two cooler with readings from the lower to mid 80s west to lower 90s east.
A cold front will move southeast from Canada on Friday with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough of low pressure will move through the region on Saturday with a chance of showers.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Early morning water vapor imagery and radar data illustrate the dry slot centered over the forecast area, associated with the eastern Dakotas upper low. The first will be over west central MN related to the upper low, with the second area of redevelopment anticipated along/east of Interstate 35 in vicinity of the surface front during the late morning and afternoon hours. Tonight precipitation will be primarily focused along the western/northern fringes of the forecast area tied to the upper low, and we should start to see some snow mixing in during the evening as colder air works in. The very highly amplified upper low will be slow to move out of the Upper Midwest this week as a blocking type pattern develops north across central Canada.
/issued 421 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Gulf high pressure interacting with lower pressure across the Plains is providing moderate and gusty south winds across Deep South Texas this morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s across the Ranchlands to the lower 70s along the coast.
615 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Current VFR at KCHA will degrade to MVFR cigs late morning as moisture from approaching trough moves into the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Gulf high pressure interacting with lower pressure across the Plains is providing moderate and gusty south winds across Deep South Texas this morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s across the Ranchlands to the lower 70s along the coast.
933 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will remain nearly stationary today keeping the easterly wind flow over South Florida. Therefore, the High Risk Of Rip Currents will continue along the east coast beaches.
between these two lows is an area of high pressure stretching from Hudson Bay to central Florida. High pressure along the eastern United States will gradually slide eastward ahead of a large developing upper low moving out of the Dakota's today and tonight. The ridge will move off the mid Atlantic coast overnight, and the ridge axis will tilt to a more east west orientation across central Florida late Tuesday. The location of the ridge and its axis will continue to veer winds eastward today, then southeast overnight and Tuesday.
These southwesterly winds ahead of approaching cold front will provide very warm conditions for late November. Highs this afternoon should reach around 15 degrees warmer than normal. and will retreat back to the north as a warm front this evening and overnight. Slightly cooler, but still well above normal temperatures are anticipated for Tuesday ahead of next, stronger cold front.
But during the day the surface reflection begins to lift north and east while the upper low begins to weaken and starts propagating eastward.
Prior to that, there will be weak subsidence this morning associated with a short wave ridge. The northwest flow will also usher in cooler air with highs in the 30s expected across northeast Colorado.
517 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 An area of low pressure will settle in over the Red River Valley through the beginning of the work week resulting in continued chances for light precipitation. Temperatures will be very warm today in the warm sector of the low with highs approaching record values in the mid to upper 40s. Light rain chances return this afternoon into tonight as the low deepens, especially for areas along the broad frontal zone along and north of the Iron Range late tonight. Weaker winds and slightly cooler Tuesday as the low reaches maturation and slowly starts to exit the Red River Valley towards central Minnesota.
825 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Areas of low pressure will return periodic rain chances to the forecast tonight through mid week. The low level jet should also result in gusty winds at the surface, though model soundings show the strongest winds remaining capped above the surface.
Current WV imagery shows well defined vort advection pushing south out of SE CO into NE NM out ahead of a progressive and deepening trough that will move across southern AZ and NM overnight and arrive on the I20 corridor to our south by sunrise. As cooler air to the north spreads south with deepening and broadening trough throughout the day our high temps will remain at or slightly below seasonal norms mid 50s to mid 60s from NW to SE across our area. One more breezy day is in store Tuesday as the closed low over the northern Plains begins to fill and eject eastward. With the ejection of the low toward the Great Lakes a cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
600 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 An area of low pressure will settle in over the Red River Valley through the beginning of the work week resulting in continued chances for light precipitation. Temperatures will be very warm today in the warm sector of the low with highs approaching record values in the mid to upper 40s. Light rain chances return this afternoon into tonight as the low deepens, especially for areas along the broad frontal zone along and north of the Iron Range late tonight. Weaker winds and slightly cooler Tuesday as the low reaches maturation and slowly starts to exit the Red River Valley towards central Minnesota.
A transitory upper ridge will cause conditions to dry out areawide through the day Tuesday.
425 AM PST Mon Nov 28 2016 Just some lingering light showers in store today behind another cold front moving quickly through the region. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the week with temperatures remaining cooler than normal. As a potent storm system continues to pull away from the region another quick moving cold front brought some additional light precipitation overnight.
330 AM PST Mon Nov 28 2016 Some lingering showers today, then dry weather with locally breezy north wind returns this week as high pressure builds along the West Coast.
Wind Advisory still set to start at 18z along with the High Wind Warning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 57 73 57 / 20 100 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 58 73 56 / 10 100 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 55 71 56 / 10 100 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 50 70 52 / 10 90 80 80 NC.
A frontal system will spread rain across the region tonight before a cold front crosses the commonwealth on Tuesday. with more rain and mild temperatures in store before cooler air and lake effect snow showers return for the end of the week. thanks to sharp upper ridge axis approaching the OH/PA border this morning. Freshening southerly boundary layer flow and 850 mb temps in the +5 to +7 range will allow max temps to range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s southeast.
Not reflected in the TAFs is a wind shift back to the north as a cold front swings through towards the very end of the period.
835 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A moist southeast flow will become established today with most of this increasing moisture remaining trapped in the lowest levels under 10000 feet thanks to the subsidence inversion. Southeast flow will be strong enough to keep the west coast sea breeze from developing and allow temperatures to warm to the upper 70s to lower 80s, except along portions of the Levy county coast where the flow will be onshore keeping highs in the lower to mid 70s.
408 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 (Today and Tonight) A Pacific cold front is moving through the area, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, mainly across the Big Country and Heartland. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40s, with the coldest readings expected across the Interstate 10 corridor, where winds will be lightest.
340 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 Upper low is currently spinning over central South Dakota with a pretty strong pressure gradient across the CWA. Went ahead and dropped the High Wind Warning for the Bordeaux area as winds have been weaker there compared to the southern Laramie Range, and winds will be more west-northwest which tends to be less favorable for Bordeaux. The higher elevations of the southern Laramie Range and adjacent foothills should see mixing down of winds of 40-50 kts.
503 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 Upper low is currently spinning over central South Dakota with a pretty strong pressure gradient across the CWA. Went ahead and dropped the High Wind Warning for the Bordeaux area as winds have been weaker there compared to the southern Laramie Range, and winds will be more west-northwest which tends to be less favorable for Bordeaux. The higher elevations of the southern Laramie Range and adjacent foothills should see mixing down of winds of 40-50 kts.
Showers will decrease in intensity and coverage in the afternoon then taper off tonight as an upper level ridge nudges into the area from the west. On Tuesday, with a ridge building inland, expect dry conditions across the area. Patchy freezing fog may also develop in the Klamath Falls area early Tuesday.
543 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Areas of low pressure will return periodic rain chances to the forecast tonight through mid week. The low level jet should also result in gusty winds at the surface, though model soundings show the strongest winds remaining capped above the surface.
715 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will bring dry and cooler conditions that will last through Friday. High pressure at the surface is keeping us dry while convective debris from old upstream activity has resulted in a shield of mid/high clouds streaming overhead. Variably cloudy skies will continue into the overnight but we will stay dry as high pressure slips off to the east. Low temps tonight will range from around freezing over the NE zones to the lower 40s along the MD border. It appears the strength of the upper ridge over the South Central/Southeast U.
A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward and exit our region by late this evening. In addition, a few thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and early evening along and ahead of the cold front, especially for eastern portions of Southwest and North-Central MT.
902 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 An upper-level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the Southern Appalachian and Eastern Tennessee Valley region, with tranquil weather expected again overnight. The higher dewpoints will help keep low temperatures quite mild again, with low to upper 50s common over the entire valley region come the predawn hours on Friday morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 85 58 81 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 58 80 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 55 84 58 81 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 82 52 80 / 10 10 10 20.
Can not rule out a few locations having brief dense fog around sunrise due to a ridge/drier mid levels moving toward S TX combined with remaining low level moisture. The mid/upper level ridge axis is progged to be just west of the CWA Fri. The ridge is progged to shift slightly east becoming more dominant by Fri night. Slightly warmer temps are expected through the short term as the ridge builds closer to South Texas.
735 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A warm front will linger across the region tonight into Friday before lifting north Friday night.
With upper trough taking a general northeasterly track, best chances for convection will focus on north-central and northeast Oklahoma. The trends in the short term data suggest roughly the highway 75 corridor.
Upper ridging will continue across the area through Friday as it gradually moves eastward. Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal, with highs in the low to mid 80s inland to upper 70s and low 80s along the coast.
743 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will spread across the Carolinas and Georgia through this weekend.
The 500 mb upper ridge will shift east into AL north through IN on Friday. Shallow convection was forming atop the lower Appalachians today, and we may see a bit more on Friday attempting to develop along Sand and Lookout Mountains. A near persistence forecast continues temperature wise, with highs in the lower 80s expected.
Alignment of the cumulus cloud streets on the the GOES- 16 imagery shows the low level southwesterly flow across the area. Current indications are that showers and thunderstorm will not likely develop late this afternoon and this evening as the warm front has shifted north of us and there some CIN over the area.
The NAM12 and NAMBUFR still continued to show the potential for IFR ceilings at KCLL later tonight when the low- level jet gets more established.
This should keeps temps a little milder, but perhaps a little cooler than earlier forecast. Southerly winds have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
Tonight and Friday High pressure to the northeast and weak upper ridging resulting in breaks in clouds through evening.
For tonight though we can expect to see winds shift to a slightly more E/SE direction as the high that was over the OH Valley yesterday has shifted off to the East Coast. This will allow for a slight increase in dewpoints with values over central AL/GA in the low to mid 50s. The 500 mb upper ridge will shift east into AL north through IN on Friday. Shallow convection was forming atop the lower Appalachians today, and we may see a bit more on Friday attempting to develop along Sand and Lookout Mountains. A near persistence forecast continues temperature wise, with highs in the lower 80s expected.
Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 60s in many places.
735 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A weak cold front will slip south of the area this evening.
1020 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will spread across the Carolinas and Georgia through this weekend.
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A weak cold front will slip south of the area this evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 59 79 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 80 59 79 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 58 81 58 79 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 80 53 77 / 10 20 10 20.
912 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will remain well to the north along the U.
The trends in the short term data suggest roughly the highway 75 corridor.
Water vapor imagery indicated broad upper ridging spreading into the Upper Midwest. An upper low, our next system of interest, was beginning to eject northeast from the southern plains. The higher precip chances should be Friday afternoon into Friday night as a stronger surge of 850-700 mb warm advection ahead of the advancing surface warm front with showers/storms lifting northward.
Some thicker high clouds were streaming across the area from west to east late this morning and early afternoon ahead of an approaching trough and surface cold front that will move through the area this evening. The above mentioned trough will move through Utah and tighten the gradient, resulting in a windy and warm day as sufficient mixing takes place, with some lower valley locations pushing 80 degrees. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph with this cold front and trough passage, staying just below wind advisory thresholds, but this will need to be monitored by the afternoon/evening shifts. Temperatures on Friday will also be a bit cooler but still warm and above normal.
Models show an upper level trof moving just north of our region on Friday. The trof will be well off to our north by Friday evening, so any precipitation chances will be north of our region.
This is occurring on the back side of an upper ridge which continues to shift eastward away from the region. As a result of this setup, temperatures have been able to climb into the lower to mid 80s across nearly all of the region.