Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
Dry weather along with a warming trend is expected later in the week as high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific.
Cutoff upper low was positioned over central CA this morning with a spoke of clouds/showers extending through central NV. Upper low in northern California will track northeastward through Nevada today and tonight, reaching eastern Idaho on Wednesday. The track of the low will determine the extent of the showers, and the latest model runs suggest a slight southward shift in this regard. There is also the potential for afternoon-evening thunderstorms, especially near the center of the low. Decent instability and dynamics this afternoon exist ahead of the low in northeast Nevada where some of the storms could be strong, and these storms could move through extreme southern Twin Falls County based on the latest forecast track. Temperatures will be cooler near the low due to the clouds and showers, basically to the south and east of Boise.
932 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be south of our region today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Wednesday.
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will ridge into the area from the East Coast through the day. A weak low pressure system will pass to the north of Lake Erie with a cold front settling south across the region on Wednesday.
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 A broad upper ridge will continue across the southeast during the period.
1027 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Satellite imagery this morning shows a closed upper level low centered over the Western Great Basin with axis of deformation extending from it NE across SW and Central MT.
1003 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Weak area of low pressure is moving northward over the Space Coast this morning with numerous showers and thunderstorms on the east side of this system. Winds are fairly light and variable on the sounding so with the combination of the low off to the northeast and the sea breeze we should see low level winds shift to southwest to west this afternoon taking best rain chances into the interior counties, except over the Nature Coast which will be closer to the low. Easterly winds will shift to onshore near the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, except across the far north closer to the low where the northerly flow will persist. Tonight winds will shift to southerly as the low pressure area moves further northwest into the Florida Big Bend.
84 inches at 537 am this morning with low pressure passage near Melbourne. Regardless of exact trajectory, strong moisture convergence and synoptic scale ascent will impact CWA today into tonight east of inverted trough axis.
Dry weather along with a warming trend is expected later in the week as high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. This activity will persist through the morning hours as an upper level low drops southward through the region. Temperatures region-wide today will be well below seasonal averages as the cooler, drier air mass settles in over the region.
An upper low over northern California will shift into Nevada today and southerly flow aloft will increase across Utah. The flow turns westerly and cooler as this low lifts out to the northeast on Wednesday.
A drier and cooler air mass will move in from Wednesday into the weekend with near normal temperatures and only a slight chance of showers over far eastern Arizona. A vigorous upper low was located across central California at 330 AM and is forecast to move slowly eastward into Nevada by late this afternoon. Surface winds will respond by mid morning with gusts from 40 to 50 mph likely across Coconino county and the higher elevations of Yavapai county including Prescott. forecast models show the trough axis swinging eastward with a drier and cooler air mass moving across northern Arizona.
This is of the weaker variety and centered much further south but aided by the presence of inverted trough over Florida. /issued 740 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ A broad upper ridge will continue across the southeast during the period.
922 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow dry weather to continue until a front approaches on Wednesday. With winds shifting to the southwest, daytime highs should run about five degrees warmer than yesterday. Although the cold front will pass through the region Wednesday, much of the lift will remain to the northeast across New York and England.
1221 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be south of our region today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Wednesday.
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Aviation A cold front will track slowly southeast through the Great Lakes region today and tonight.
728 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The local area will remain under the influence of high pressure along the east coast today. Meanwhile a weak low pressure system will pass to the north of Lake Erie, with the associated cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday.
The thermal trough on the coast will weaken this morning, with northerly winds weakening with it, but fresh swell will keep seas steep through late morning.
Wednesday, an upper low will lift northeast toward our CWA.
Two areas of low pressure persist across the basin, one northwest of Melbourne, the other in the central Gulf of Mexico. Locally, the Florida Keys are within the ridge axis which is trying to reclaim ground from the lower pressure. Water vapor imagery places an upper tropospheric trough to our west, with anticyclonic curvature aloft. The weak anticyclonic flow at the surface, in combination with dry layers in the lower troposphere normally associated with southerly flow, may have squelched the ability for moist convection. Things that could change this include a confluent southeasterly stream feeding into the low over Central Florida (not yet realized), or DCVA from the upper low to our west (feature remains shallow with respect to the tropopause).
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure centered over the region will slowly move offshore today. A cold front will move across the area on Wednesday.
Cold front extending from south of Amarillo to just south of Woodward and Cherokee will continue to move very slowly to the south through the day. Weak s/wv trough moving northward from southwest Texas will influence development of isolated showers and weak storms this morning and early afternoon ahead of the front, primarily across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Will leave gridded forecast of POPs increasing from west to east tonight and front continues slow progress and s/wv trough drifts over southern portions of CWA. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this morning, bringing ceilings in the range of about 1,000 to 2,000 feet.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this morning, bringing ceilings in the range of about 1,000 to 2,000 feet.
Satellite imagery shows the upper low center now south of the Sacramento area, moving a little faster than models have been projecting. Most of the valley is currently cloud-free while areal coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms has been increasing overnight to the east of the low over the northern Sierra Nevada. The low is forecast to begin turning more to the east by midday, and then move northeast into northern Nevada this evening. Most shower and thunderstorm activity in the Sierra today is expected to occur from about I-80 southward with perhaps a bit of snow possible over the highest elevations, but little to no travel impact is anticipated over the high passes. A modest warming trend will begin Wednesday as the low shifts east and ridging from the eastern Pacific begins to influence the region.
1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will drift east from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast rest of today. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
Southeast winds will develop on the backside of the high, with a chilly night of lows in the 40s expected.
703 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The local area will remain under the influence of high pressure along the east coast today. Meanwhile a weak low pressure system will pass to the north of Lake Erie, with the associated cold front settling south across the area on Wednesday.
Tightening gradient between a tropical wave moving across the Fl peninsula and high pressure to the north will produce an onshore flow with small craft advisory conditions across the Fl waters and an exercise caution across the Ga waters.
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 12Z TAF Cycle A cold front will move through the Amarillo TAF site around 12Z today. /Issued 419 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ Focus of the forecast in the near term is on the cold front moving southward across the Panhandles early this morning.
A cooler airmass builds in behind a cold front today and tonight, leading to the first frost of the season for some parts of northern Minnesota tonight. High pressure currently centered across the western Dakotas will build eastward today into tonight, becoming centered over central Minnesota tonight. Wednesday will be sunny and a few degrees cooler than average for mid-September as the area of high pressure builds eastward towards the upper Great Lakes.
With high pressure camped across the area tonight, should see temperatures fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the region. Lows should range from the lower 50s in southwest Minnesota to around 60 in south central SD.
Surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s/lower 70s across CWA so increase of heat and humidity will be noticable after a drier cooler weekend. Latest short term models suggest best chances for afternoon thunderstorms will be along cold front across north central/northwest OK. Upper wave approaching from south central TX may support isolated storm development across the higher terrain of SE OK and western AR.
953 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through Wednesday night.
General upper-level ridging will remain in place across the southern US with some weaknesses present. Easterly flow will be in place across Central Alabama from the surface to at least 700 mb, due to low-level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic and a disorganized tropical wave moving westward across Florida.
1125 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Update/Marine A cold front will track slowly southeast through the Great Lakes region today and tonight.
Sfc ridging anchored over the Virginias this morning is making for E/SE flow across the area, with an approaching cold front over the Central Plains to our west. A convergence axis exists on the western periphery of the ridge to our east, which will set the stage for widely scattered convection developing later today (much like yesterday) without a major pattern change over the past 24 hours.
1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
We'll monitor convection developing near a cold front in western Oklahoma this afternoon, but current indications are that this activity will remain well to the north and west of our TAF sites. As high pressure loosens its grip further on Wednesday, there may be a slightly better shot at afternoon thunder in the Metroplex, but this is beyond the DFW 30-hour TAF window. /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ The upper level ridge over the region will start to weaken as a an upper level low digs into northern California.
1237 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure through Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday night.
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east of the area this morning with the cold front. Northwest winds and CAA will persist for the rest of today as high pressure advances into the northern Plains. The longer term concern is the development/movement of the upper trough late in the week and into the weekend followed by moderating temperatures.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will maintain sunny and dry conditions for the remainder of this week. Daytime temperatures will be a little warmer than normal for mid September. The ridge will weaken enough late this week to allow a weak weather system to reach the area over the weekend. A strong upper level ridge and weak offshore flow will make today sunny and dry with highs in the 70s to low 80s. The coast will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the 60s.
A surface cold front extends from northeastern IA to far northwestern MO where some additional shower and storm activity existed in its vicinity. Mid level flow will become more due westerly today and enable a further southward push by the surface cold front, with good model agreement that the front will hold off entering our forecast area in northeast MO until this afternoon, when heating of the day should further enhance the coverage of showers and storms when they do develop. Otherwise, a warm day is on tap for much of our region with the higher MET MOS numbers preferred, yielding max temps in the mid to upper 80s. TES Showers and storms should shift slowly southward tonight as the cold front moves slowly southeastward through our forecast area.
747 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will be off the Mid Atlantic Coast today.
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the Florida area through much of the week. Satellite imagery and surface analysis shows an area of low pressure along the east coast of Florida that is lifting northward along the coast. Regional radar imagery shows widespread convection associated with the low pushing into southeast Georgia. Temperatures a bit cooler today than yesterday in the mid to upper 80s. Convection should diminish with the loss of heating this evening but will keep a mention of pops overnight in the southeastern counties due to higher moisture and approaching low pressure.
/issued 343 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ One round of showers is departing the area this morning and another will move through tonight thanks to a couple of quick moving short wave troughs. Models are showing increasing westerly flow behind the trough on Monday with MET/MAV guidance showing strong winds are possible at GDP.
Widespread rain is expected Sunday and Monday as a warm front advances northward into the region. Broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast States shifting to the northeast. Deep moisture shifting to the Southeast States ahead of trough in the southern Plains. Models indicate a more southeast flow into the central Midlands suggesting warm front may move into the area but confidence not high for warmer temperatures. QPF amounts for the entire short term period are forecast around 1 to just over 2 inches with the highest amounts in the southwestern portion of the area. The latest models appear to indicate warm front will move into the area Monday. The front is expected to lift north across the area as a warm front late Monday or Monday night.
736 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will bring a dry start to the New Year.
625 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Warm front pushes northeast Sunday night into Monday night.
Today, anticipate much warmer and humid conditions.
At the surface, broad high pressure will move into the eastern CONUS, allowing for light southerly winds.
A band/cluster of showers is lifting northeast across SE OK this morning, on the nose of best low/mid level warm/moist advection and on the fringe of the better forcing for ascent from what was the Baja closed low. Focus will then shift to the stronger upper low over the Southwest, which will begin to impact the region very late tonight into Monday morning. broken/overcast IFR conditions look to be common across the CWA and should continue overnight in response to an upper level low moving into the Southern Plains. This boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front today but increasing cloudiness will keep the warmup in check. The upper low that will move northeast from northern Mexico towards the Arklatex late tonight and Monday looks like it will be a few hours slower than it looked at this time yesterday.
A tightening gradient ahead of the cold front associated with this system will add orographic lift to the equation. A shallow short wave trough ejected from the low to the northwest will drive the cold front into northeast UT and northwest Colorado late tonight where it will remain on Monday. Temperatures will run near persistence today everywhere but across the south where highs should be warmer.
There will likely be a mix of freezing rain, snow and sleet in between from central to northeast Wisconsin. Highs Monday will reach 35 or so near the lake and bay and to around freezing elsewhere.
With the warm front expected to push some to the north from the coast, we will begin to see the chance for some thunderstorm activity as well as some warmer high temperatures with possibly even a 70 degree plus reading not out of the question in our far south. The warm front will likely stall across Central Alabama today with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to continue into tonight.
By late tonight, the next disturbance rotating around the large upper low spinning over the Pacific Northwest may brush the northern mountains. This should bring a little more light snow to the high country but any accumulation less than 2 inches, even in the favored areas north of Rabbit Ears Pass. Don't think cold airmass will infiltrate the northeast corner of the state, but for now kept a low chance of patchy freezing drizzle and fog over the far northeast to maintain consistency.
broken/overcast IFR conditions look to be common across the CWA and should continue overnight in response to an upper level low moving into the Southern Plains. This boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front today but increasing cloudiness will keep the warmup in check. The upper low that will move northeast from northern Mexico towards the Arklatex late tonight and Monday looks like it will be a few hours slower than it looked at this time yesterday.
A little upslope with moisture in place for a few showers this morning, however the heaviest activity will be just ahead of and associated with the main cold pool and dynamics with the low currently near Yuma. Heavier near the track of the low south of Tucson and in the mountains. After this system we lose our split flow with a strong mean trough position north of our area, but no mechanism to share in the coldest air and dynamics. We may be able to drag another cold front into the area late in the week however, depending on the strength of the arctic outbreak into the northern plains and how the ridge amplifies off the west coast. Low pressure and associated line of showers continues to push eastward this morning.
Surface wetbulb temps across central portions of Oklahoma are near or slightly below freezing, and this will need to be monitored closely. Currently anticipate wetbulb temps to rise above freezing before any fog/drizzle moves into central portions of the state later this morning.
1051 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure tracking northeast across the Great Lakes late today will lead to an usettled few days.
Strong cold front is still expected to push through Mon evening, clearing southeast KS by 09z Tue. The GFS is more progressive with the upper trough, swinging it into the Ohio Valley by Thu afternoon.
A low pressure system will move through southern Arizona today and spread rain and snow across much of the state.
As early as daybreak on Monday, we'll see a warm front push northward through the mid-state and start the waterworks again. A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop in the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and push northward into our neck of the woods during the late afternoon and evening hours.
This is occurring about the western periphery of high pressure that shifted out over the western Atlantic yesterday. This coupled with a building mid level ridge extending northward from Cuba, will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s most areas this afternoon. High pressure east of the waters will maintain a moist southerly flow over the waters.
For Monday, a low pressure system will begin to approach from the southwest. Ahead of this system, warmer and more humid air will advect in.
Look for increasing storm coverage overnight as this trof approaches. Heavy downpours a good bet as well, but with rapid storm motion, flooding is at the lower end of concerns.
Highs today will range from the upper 40s in Northeast Arkansas to the low 60s in Northeast Mississippi. Over the next 24 hours a closed low off the South California Coast will move onshore and move quickly across the Desert Southwest along the Mexican Border. Significant moisture return is expected ahead of the trough as it approaches the Middle and Southern Mississippi River valley tomorrow afternoon. Dew points are expected to surge into the low or even middle 60s resulting in enhanced surface based instability.
607 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will move east of the region today. High pressure will build in on Monday.
Cold front sliding into southern Montana this morning with snow spreading across north central Montana. Upper trof pushing into the Pacific northwest now expected to linger through Monday before retrograding off the coast. Moisture streaming across the northern Rockies will eventually pull east as the northern extension of the trof splits across central Canada. Snow will slowly taper off on Monday from the west with the splitting trof.
We think temperatures will warm into the lower 50s in most locations, with upper 40s out in the eastern Ozarks.
953 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will bring a dry start to the New Year.
954 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will move east of the region today. High pressure will build in on Monday.
Also, there is a 500mb ridge building over the region.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the north country this afternoon and will remain over the region through Monday.
As a result, we are going to cancel the High Wind Watch.
The flow around this high will continue to advect warm moist air across our area. Wind speeds are expected to pick back up as the pressure gradient across the region is compressed by an approaching trough.
535 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A cold front moves across this morning with high pressure following in its place. The high centers over the region tonight and slides offshore Monday.
1025 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region today into Monday.
922 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Forecast is on track with high temperatures expected about 10 degrees above normal for the first day of 2017 (near 80 along the coast and the lower 80s over the interior). High pressure ridge axis will remain across the region, producing a S/SE flow over the region. This will continue to increase temperatures to above normal values, with highs in the low 80s this afternoon and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
High amplitude U/L pattern is located across North America with a strong rex block over the eastern Pacific and a deep mean trough over the western U. A strong subtropical ridge persists over the Caribbean. and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. This will help pump up the ridge over the Caribbean building back north over the Florida peninsula. Southeast boundary layer flow will persist on Monday as an area of low pressure develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley due to the U/L disturbance riding over the stationary boundary.
Cannot rule out a quick tornado spin up or two in this type of high shear/low CAPE environment, but the higher risk for severe weather/supercells should remain south of the region in the Gulf Coast states.
Surface temperatures will be rising overnight with the approach of the secondary wave/system, and this should preclude freezing precipitation.