Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds are beginning to taper down some across the area as the ridge settles in over the Atlantic states and pressure gradients relax. With a drier and cooler flow, overnight lows tonight should be 10 to 12 degrees lower.
1104 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Current surface map show high pressure across the Dakotas, with lee trof over Montana/Wyoming. West CONUS trof moves over the Rockies on Friday and into the western Dakota Friday night.
Tonight's lows will fall to near 70F with cooler highs tomorrow compared to previous days.
A fairly deep mid-level trof out west should begin lifting northeast toward the Northern Plains.
1238 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain generally dry weather through the weekend.
1128 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The next H5 trough still on track to trek across the Intermountain West during the next 24 hours, with gradually increasing chances for precipitation, especially for the northern half of the state. This trough will pull a cold front southward, hanging up roughly along the Continental Divide tonight.
We may see fog develop overnight at KTRI with much cooler temperatures.
212 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region late this week and during the weekend.
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will remain in place over the southeast aloft tonight. A secondary push of a drier and slightly cooler air will continue to push from Georgia into northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This should lower relative humidity values near 30 percent in the afternoon, as dewpoints drop into the lower to mid 50s (especially east of I-65). Highs should be even more pleasant only reaching the lower to mid 80s, despite a bit more sunshine. High pressure is forecast by models to weaken Friday night into the weekend, as a fairly amplified longwave trough axis pushes east towards the southeast.
A backdoor frontal boundary that has brought breezy and cooler conditions back to Alabama has pushed into extreme eastern Mississippi this morning. With cold air advection continuing through the day, highs will be cooler in the mid to upper 80s. Fairly quiet/tranquil wx conditions will then prevail tonight into the first half of the weekend period, as high pressure remains entrenched from the mid Atlantic states into much of the region. An upper ridge axis will also remain in place over much of the SE states thru the remainder of the work week, thereby maintaining the dry wx pattern. A troughing west/ridging east pattern will be in place across the lower-48 for the start of the period. The rebuilt upper ridge will bring more unseasonably warm and dry conditions to end the last weekend of summer.
235 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Canadian high pressure will build down the East Coast through Friday, bringing cool temperatures and low humidity.
This should inhibit too much in the way of radiational cooling, so am forecasting milder lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Some slight cooling is likely for Friday, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
245 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Canadian high pressure will build down the East Coast through Friday, bringing cool temperatures and low humidity.
Models also show at least some pesky showers and storms as the leading edge of the upper trough pushes into the area. Friday night, SPC has maintained a marginal risk for our northern and western areas as one or more clusters of thunderstorms are expected to move out of the High Plains.
104 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Maintenance of a dry and stable low level environment held by high pressure centered to the east ensures skies remain clear across the lowest 5000 ft through the remainder of the daylight period. Low to mid 60s dewpoints over the Lower OH Valley will begin creeping into the area tonight into the weekend as the prevailing pattern remains generally unchanged and light moisture advection continues.
Upper-level low pressure will approach the area, creating periods of offshore flow and lower temperatures. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 1 PM, water vapor satellite showed an upper-level trough moving across the region, which was creating a deep marine layer across southern CA. Ensembles are in good agreement through the short term, with the trough moving to the northeast Friday and weak ridging over the weekend.
243 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights deep-layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, just west of a long-wave trough axis which stretches south through Cuba. High pressure centered over the Northeast US stretches southwest to the central Gulf of Mexico.
This will allow highs to reach into the low 80s as long as morning activity deteriorates. Placement of the strongest shear values aligns along and behind the cold front.
1127 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain generally dry weather through the weekend.
245 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Upper level high is still in control across the middle TN area. However, 850 mb flow has more of a easterly and southeasterly fetch thereby reducing the moisture fields in the lower levels. Moving forward, to gain any appreciable change, we need that upper high pattern to break down.
Updated at 320 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Strong upper ridging over the eastern CONUS will cause the heat to linger through the weekend.
1115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights deep-layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, just west of a long-wave trough axis which stretches south through Cuba. High pressure centered over the Northeast US continues to strengthen and build to the southwest. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints near 70.
Upper level low pressure system will move across the forecast area today for more showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms today will be in the higher terrain. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain.
Upper flow becomes more amplified as a synoptic scale trough digs over the Great Basin. As more energy is ejected from the base of the the trough to the west, we will have another shot at some storms, with the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms as well, especially Friday afternoon into the night, and with greater chances northwest and north of the tri-cities.
A trough axis extends from the northern Plains southwest into the southwestern U.
Additional storms will develop Friday afternoon and increase in coverage Friday night as a large upper-level trough moves through the area.
Subtle changes in the weather are anticipated as the wedge in place gradually dissipates and a 590 dm ridge axis approaches from the west.
743 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
731 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region late this week and during the weekend.
930 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Canadian high pressure will build down the East Coast through Friday, bringing cool temperatures and low humidity.
(1) A long-wave trough situated over the western CONUS, and (2) Tropical Depression Imelda, which is currently over the ARKLATEX region. Over the next 36 hours, the tropical moisture from Imelda will phase together with the incoming trough from the west and make for a cooler and wetter period across the Ozarks.
936 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
Dewpoints this evening are holding a few degrees higher than the previous forecast, and with some subtle upper level disturbances surrounding the upper high, those isolated showers may show up overnight into the morning hours.
High pressure will remain in place over the southeast aloft tonight. A secondary push of a drier and slightly cooler air will continue to push from Georgia into northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This should lower relative humidity values near 30 percent in the afternoon, as dewpoints drop into the lower to mid 50s (especially east of I-65). Highs should be even more pleasant only reaching the lower to mid 80s, despite a bit more sunshine. High pressure is forecast by models to weaken Friday night into the weekend, as a fairly amplified longwave trough axis pushes east towards the southeast.
A large area of high pressure continues to reside over the eastern seaboard. The elevated onshore flow should keep min temps in the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast, south of the Cape.
/28/ Late this afternoon through Friday: As "Imelda" dissipates and moves inland to our west, southeast flow and precipitable water values near two inches will continue to focus along/west of the Highway 49 corridor in the near term, and this will help to enhance diurnally drive convective precipitation chances.
514 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor shows large western CONUS trof with southwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high over the Upper Midwest and trof over eastern MT/WY producing gusty southerly winds across the region. Thunderstorm chances will continue areawide on Friday within disturbed southwest flow to the east of upper trof crossing the Rockies. Best axis of CAPE/shear will be east of the Black Hills along/near the cold front where some severe storms are likely.
636 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Ongoing surface pressure falls across the western Dakotas and eastern MT/WY have marked an area of increasing low level convergence along an inverted trough axis centered just west of the western North Dakota border. Although an area of shallow cumulus have developed along this inverted trough in southeast Montana, further surface based convective development is being inhibited by a healthy capping inversion as exhibited on forecast point soundings taken in the area. This Thursday afternoon North Dakota finds itself between a deep h500 trough across the Great Basin, and a broad ridge across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Global Models track the upper low northeast into the Northern Plains over the next 48 hours, across North Dakota and into Canada.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon analysis reveals pronounced upper level ridging over the Gulf States extending up through the eastern CONUS. Low pressure continues to slide up across the Hudson Bay area with a cold front stretching back through Minnesota into the Dakotas. With an increase in the low level jet and possibly some weak forcing from the weak wave in Wisconsin, we could yet see some redevelopment of showers along the axis as we go through the night. The large and expansive ridge extending from the southeastern states in the Great Lakes will eventually be suppressed by a northern stream short wave.
921 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure lies across the forecast area tonight with some low level moisture trapped below 700 mb across central and northern sections. The biggest change will be much cooler temperatures tonight as drier air filters in from the northeast. Temperatures at mid evening are in the lower 60s to mid 70s and will drop to the mid 50s to lower 60s, about 5 to 10 degrees lower than early this morning.
Movement from north to south indicated the upper low was already in south-central Idaho. Showers will decrease from west to east in our CWA tonight as the low gradually exits east. Patchy fog will develop in the valleys overnight and Friday morning, but Friday will become sunnier and warmer than today, although breezier from the northwest in the afternoon.
Light precipitation will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra through this evening. Some cumulus clouds developing over the mountains with radar tracking a few showers over the high sierra mainly north of the Kings River. North flow in between a trough in the Great Basin and a ridge along the Pacific Coast will provide cool temperatures through Friday. Temperatures warm to near seasonal for the weekend as the E Pacific ridge builds inland.
Upper level high is still in control across the middle TN area. However, 850 mb flow has more of a easterly and southeasterly fetch thereby reducing the moisture fields in the lower levels. Moving forward, to gain any appreciable change, we need that upper high pattern to break down.
938 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Canadian high pressure will build down the East Coast through Friday, bringing cool temperatures and low humidity.
Strong and gusty E/NE flow under high pressure will keep SCA conditions in place through the weekend with SCEC in the Bays.
412 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Late this afternoon through Friday: As "Imelda" dissipates and moves inland to our west, southeast flow and precipitable water values near two inches will continue to focus along/west of the Highway 49 corridor in the near term, and this will help to enhance diurnally drive convective precipitation chances.
606 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Ongoing surface pressure falls across the western Dakotas and eastern MT/WY have marked an area of increasing low level convergence along an inverted trough axis centered just west of the western North Dakota border. Although an area of shallow cumulus have developed along this inverted trough in southeast Montana, further surface based convective development is being inhibited by a healthy capping inversion as exhibited on forecast point soundings taken in the area. This Thursday afternoon North Dakota finds itself between a deep h500 trough across the Great Basin, and a broad ridge across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Global Models track the upper low northeast into the Northern Plains over the next 48 hours, across North Dakota and into Canada.
/JNE/ Prior discussion below: Late this afternoon through Friday: As "Imelda" dissipates and moves inland to our west, southeast flow and precipitable water values near two inches will continue to focus along/west of the Highway 49 corridor in the near term, and this will help to enhance diurnally drive convective precipitation chances.
528 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
322 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and warm days to NY and PA through the weekend.
Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Hot ridge over the eastern CONUS remains in control through the weekend, with temps pushing 90 each day.
This feature is moving southwestward on the periphery of the mid level ridge over the Mississippi Valley. The above mentioned H5 ridging over the Mississippi and OH Valleys will start to build over our region during the day Friday.
339 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Early this morning an upper level trough was located over the western U. while a ridge extended across the eastern Plains south into the Gulf. Weak embedded waves were moving northeast out of the base of the trough and into western Kansas south into eastern New Mexico where scattered convection was occurring at 0730Z. Temperatures today will be limited in the lower to mid 80s dues to clouds limiting insolation.
Flow on its western side was bringing warm/moist advection in the lower levels, resulting in an overall increase in clouds early this morning.
343 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend.
455 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
1206 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure should maintain dry weather through the weekend.
Upper ridge and Bermuda high do remain in place well into Sun, but there is indication of cooling at H85. Changes, albeit small, finally on the way late Sun as models coming more into line breaking down upper ridge. eventually swinging a weak upper trough across the mid-south on Mon.
357 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Today & tonight: For today, any remnants of Imelda have been absorbed into the the synoptic flow around the western periphery of the building subtropical ridge over the southeast. As the ridge builds aloft over Alabama & further west, expect broad scale subsidence & nearly one inch PW air to build in our area.
1220 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Canadian high pressure will build southward across the southern middle Atlantic states through tonight, then offshore this weekend. The rest of the area will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
High temperatures in the low- to mid-80s will be around the seasonal norm, but tomorrow's temps will begin to increase over the next several days. High pressure will be anchored off the Carolinas with a return flow off the Atlantic continuing to moderate the airmass and send temps back to the upper 80s Sun afternoon and around 90s for SE portions.
Highs today look to only reach into the low to mid 80s with lows tonight ranging from around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas.
1123 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor shows large western CONUS trof with southwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high over the Upper Midwest and trof over eastern MT/WY producing gusty southerly winds across the region. Thunderstorm chances will continue areawide on Friday within disturbed southwest flow to the east of upper trof crossing the Rockies. Best axis of CAPE/shear will be east of the Black Hills along/near the cold front where some severe storms are likely.
Cooler temperatures and precipitation associated with this storm will concentrate across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday. Drier and milder conditions will develop this weekend as high pressure aloft moves into the area.
Earlier showers were dissipating as a long wave trough was slowly moving across the two state area.
A cold front will push across the central Plains on Friday afternoon and into the evening sparking showers and thunderstorms.
450 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
239 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Current surface map shows low over far western North Dakota with cold front extending southward to the northern Black Hills into eastern Wyoming. cold front slowly move east as upper trof moves across the Rockies. Main impulse embedded in upper trof lifts through northern Wyoming into western North Dakota tonight. Low level moisture pooling ahead of cold front results in MLCAPE of 2000+ J/KG.
335 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Canadian high pressure will build southward across the southern middle Atlantic states through tonight, then offshore this weekend. A subtropical ridge centered over the Mid-South this morning will strengthen and expand ewd across the sern US through tonight. That pattern will be characterized by continued surface ridging across NC, though with a developing Appalachian-lee trough with diurnal heating, and a 592-593 dm/322-323 dm subtropical ridge remaining over the sern US at 500 and 700 mb, respectively. The presence and influence of the subsident subtropical ridge, and otherwise modification of the antecedent cP airmass, will yield warmer/above average temperatures mostly in the lwr-mid 80s.
320 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Beginning of an active period starts today as tropical moisture makes its way north into parts of the area and multiple troughs impact the Southern Plains. Meanwhile across western sections, models show an embedded wave ejecting northeast out of the larger scale western trough this afternoon and evening.
956 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
347 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The cooler than normal weather will persist for today with a slight chance for showers over northern Lake and Klamath counties. With high pressure building later this afternoon and evening, clouds will likely clear out later tonight.
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Updated AVIATION Section The cooler than normal weather will persist for today with a slight chance for showers over northern Lake and Klamath counties. With high pressure building later this afternoon and evening, clouds will likely clear out later tonight.
Lingering north winds this morning will subside this afternoon with mainly clear skies and cooler temperatures expected today.
500 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Current surface map shows low over far western North Dakota with cold front extending southward to the northern Black Hills into eastern Wyoming. cold front slowly move east as upper trof moves across the Rockies. Main impulse embedded in upper trof lifts through northern Wyoming into western North Dakota tonight. Low level moisture pooling ahead of cold front results in MLCAPE of 2000+ J/KG. Upper low cuts off over eastern North Dakota on Saturday, with secondary trof swinging through the forecast area. Behind the storms, MVFR cigs may develop tomorrow night as a cooler air mass overspreads the region.
546 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend.
The combination of a deepening leeside surface trof located over eastern CO and eastern NM acting as a low level focusing feature, plenty of moisture, a moderately unstable atmosphere, progged MLCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and 0 to 6 km shear values on the order of 30 to 45 knots suggest some storms will have the potential to become strong to severe, with large hail and wind gusts to around 60 mph the primary hazards. The threat for showers and tstms will continue across much of our forecast area Saturday into Saturday night due to lingering effects of the upper level trof along with sufficient moisture.
732 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend.
420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of an upper level ridge today (592dm at 500mb), centered over GA/AL.
A cold front will push across the central Plains on Friday afternoon and into the evening sparking showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will be experienced as well as colder air filters in behind the departing cold front. Expect highs to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s (nearly 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Friday).
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A weak inverted mid-level trough will slide west into the western Gulf of Mexico under elongated 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf Coast.
VFR will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates.
344 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Upper trof will be moving east across Montana today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue today across eastern Montana ahead of the trof, but will become more widespread overnight as the mid level trof crosses the cwa. Rain diminishes from west to east on Saturday, and with high pressure building into the region, could see some breezy conditions.
/DC/ Today & tonight: For today, any remnants of Imelda have been absorbed into the the synoptic flow around the western periphery of the building subtropical ridge over the southeast. As the ridge builds aloft over Alabama & further west, expect broad scale subsidence & nearly one inch PW air to build in our area.
This complex was associated with the remnants of Imelda and was translating northward around an area of high pressure over the mid-MS and TN valleys. Aloft, high pressure will remain situated over the southern CONUS as a trough approaches from the west. The approaching trough will begin to lift north and east around the stubborn high. The high will flatten and elongate briefly while the trough traverses the nations mid section. Highs on Saturday will top out in the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
737 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
Will continue to carry the highest rain chances to the north, with decreasing chances to the south towards the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor.