Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
937 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Did go ahead and add drizzle to the area under the lower clouds east of a Wahpeton to Moorhead to Waskisk line through the rest of the morning. HRRRTL has had a good handle on the lower CIGS since yesterday and supports the updated sky cover and light precip. We get better return flow and warmer temperatures returning on Friday, especially along and west of the Red River Valley.
933 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Surface analysis this morning shows ridging extending from the east coast covering much of the SE US with light SW flow and mostly clear skies. AL and Southern Middle TN are already into the low 80s with dew points well into the 70s. Isolated to scattered storms expected this afternoon with heat indices climbing into the low 100s across much of the region. Based on a gradual increase in dewpoints, we expect lows to be a degree or so warmer on Friday morning with some locations perhaps only dropping into the u70s. We have indicated the highest POPs during these periods, with greatest coverage expected for the northwest half of the region.
823 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Convective complexes shift southward into the area today, ahead of a cold front that crosses Friday into Friday night. High pressure brings less humid weather for the weekend. The area remains under a weakening high pressure ridge ahead of an approaching slow cold front. A cold front will push through on Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWATs pool up around 2 inches ahead of the cold front, indicating heavy rain potential as well.
The upper low over the Texas Big Bend region was progged to slowly progress westward today. As this upper low moves closer to the area, the steering flow will strengthen and become more northeasterly. This is an ideal scenario for organized thunderstorms in the mountains of east-central Arizona to make their way into the lower deserts late in the evening.
We could see some storms move into northern Oklahoma late tonight associated with the upper trough pivoting southeast into Kansas, but it looks like the majority of the convection will stay northeast of the area.
942 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Low pressure over Michigan will track slowly eastward through tonight. A cold front will move across northern Ohio and NW PA late tonight into Friday.
1112 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Update/Hydro A cold front will move through the area this morning ending the threat of thunderstorms by mid morning. It will still be warm today with highs in the mid 80s but it will be much cooler Friday with highs only in the 70s.
Differential heating along the higher terrain of the plateau and mountains will lead to more shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon across those areas. We may see a few of those showers or storms make its way into the valley, but with such weak deep layer shear and cloud layer flow, expect afternoon thunderstorms to pulse and remain primarily across the higher terrain and adjacent areas. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 93 74 / 30 20 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 89 72 / 30 20 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 90 72 / 30 20 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 69 87 70 / 30 20 60 60.
We get better return flow and warmer temperatures returning on Friday, especially along and west of the Red River Valley.
Drier air in the lower to mid levels will reduce convective coverage across the Atlantic.
Tonight Low Pressure will track across Central Lakes late tonight dragging a cold front across the forecast area. We remain in the warm sector with the warm front stretching across the Central Lakes with a series of lows tracking along the boundary.
Currently, northwest flow aloft with a building upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies and a closed upper low over northern Minnesota. At the surface, a high pressure ridge extends south across most of North Dakota. Fog potential remains across most of central ND primarily outside of the low clouds with low/zero T/Td spreads currently. Closed upper low/upper trough over northern Minnesota is slow to move east today. Farther west, thermal ridge starts to develop/strengthen underneath the amplifying ridge across central Montana.
922 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Convective complexes shift southward into the area today, ahead of a cold front that crosses Friday into Friday night. High pressure brings less humid weather for the weekend. Issued flash flood watch for northern zones for rounds of showers and thunderstorms / convective complexes until cold front arrives Friday night, although most of the activity should be southwest to northeast oriented lines moving east - complexes more likely to brush far northern edges of the forecast area. The area remains under a weakening high pressure ridge ahead of an approaching slow cold front. A cold front will push through on Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWATs pool up around 2 inches ahead of the cold front, indicating heavy rain potential as well.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to retrograde westward today and a slow moving frontal boundary will sag southward into the region by late this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be back in the lower to middle 90s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday due to the added clouds and rain around.
Inverted upper level trough will still be located to our west today. Upper level trough moves farther west/northwest of the area on Friday.
627 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Cold front had moved south of the forecast area and at 07Z was located across northern Missouri into northeast and north central Kansas. Upper high over the western conus expands into the lower Missouri Valley also during this time.
948 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Building high pressure will return dry weather Fri night. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. largely east of the ridges by noon.
358 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 From the satellite view we find deep layer dry air spreading across the Gulf of Mexico and what the trough the passed through the Keys area late last night. An upper low is spinning over southern Georgia and moving northeastward across the coast. The Key West radar has showers along the trough over the outer Florida Straits and heading east. With the subsidence moving across the Gulf of Mexico, and the focus of the trough well south of the Keys Island Chain, have lowered rain chances to a low end chance. This will allow for left over moisture to develop in daytime heating, and speed convergence to deliver the low end chance today.
323 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Weak low pressure along a stationary front offshore will move northeast today. Long wave trough centered over west Pa and WV with short wave trough in the Carolina Mountains. The trough will move through early this morning and drying will occur in its wake but there may be a few showers lingering after 12z. below normal in the low 80s for max temperatures. Strong zonal flow Friday in wake of northeast upper trough.
High pressure in place across Indiana will be the dominate weather feature today. THe HIghs will bring more sunny weather with cool northeast winds. Tonight the high will drift farther south. however most of Central Indiana will remain dry under the influence of the High pressure system to the south. Strong High pressure is expected to build aloft over the region for the weekend. The next best chance for rain is the middle of the next work week as a cold front approaches from the west. broad high pressure in place across Indiana. Aloft a ridge was in place across Wisconsin. Models suggest the high will slowly settle south across Indiana today. The upper ridge to the north is expected to flatten upon approach. may trend friday highs at or warmer than the forecast builder blend.
136 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper-level low will affect the weather for one more day before high pressure builds in on Friday.
Stratocumulus/cumulus deck continues to hold strong from Pennsylvania through the lower Ohio River Valley in association with an upper level low. The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure slowly moving across the Great lakes and low pressure and cold front well south of the region. This almost retrograding upper level low across portions of PA will continue to lead to some weak height falls. Also the freezing levels are not quite as low as predicted yesterday leading to less confidence on any small hail. This fog could lessen the risk of cooler valley temperatures overall.
Outflow boundary from earlier storms on the South Plains continued to drift west of the Highway 385 corridor at 8 PM. Precipitation chances will continue to decrease through the end of the work week as ridging aloft takes place and as mid-level temps slowly start to warm. Temperatures will also start to climb with the ridge building over the area.
624 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Weak low pressure along a stationary front offshore will move northeast today. Long wave trough centered over west Pa and WV with short wave trough in the Carolina Mountains. The trough will move through early this morning and drying will occur in its wake but there may be a few showers lingering after 12z. below normal in the low 80s for max temperatures. Strong zonal flow Friday in wake of northeast upper trough.
Mostly clear skies and light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 50s tonight (7 to 10 deg F below climatic normal) over most of the forecast area after highs reach the low/mid 80s. /EC/ Friday through next Thursday morning: Continued surface ridging and northwest flow aloft will reinforce the dry pattern as we go through Friday and into the weekend.
an upper low over the Ohio Valley may bring a few showers into the area.
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 High pressure was centered over Saskatchewan/Manitoba with the high axis extending south into North Dakota. No changes for the nighttime hours other than lowering expected min temperatures in the southwest, given dewpoint temperatures a tad lower there in the lower 40s and temperatures there have dropped a bit faster than forecast. No changes for tonight with high pressure in place. No changes for tonight other than for observed trends through 23 UTC with high pressure in place. Latest satellite analysis indicates upper low spinning over northeast ND into northwest MN. Deterministic models continue the trend of an upper trough traversing the western U. Ahead of the trough we can expect a few days of very warm to hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorm chances.
625 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low into Thursday night. High pressure and warming conditions for the weekend into the beginning of the new work week. Cant be completely ruled out anywhere this morning with upper low across region. Unsettled weather to continue today, as upper low continues to linger across the area. Could be some river valley fog towards morning across the area, depending on how quickly the low and associated cloud cover pulls out of the region. Despite the upper level low moving off to the east and high pressure building, a weak disturbance slides down the backside of the upper low and brings a small chance for precip to the northern counties. After this slides through, high pressure builds strongly for the remainder of the weekend for increasing temperatures.
343 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The primary feature affecting the forecast today is the upper level low currently centered over West Virginia this morning. As the low lifts toward the northeast today, a vort max rotating around the system will increase the chance for scattered convection over far north Georgia this afternoon and early evening. Friday will bring dry and pleasant weather as high pressure takes control. Low temperatures Friday morning will also be quite pleasant for early June, ranging from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s elsewhere.
Upper low located over WV with a trough axis extending southwestward across middle TN. Meanwhile, the latest sfc analysis shows a weak trough over eastern TN.
A deep upper trough looms over the East Pacific as a deep southerly flow sets up over WA/OR. Models are in fair agreement through the weekend on the progression of the trough and its associated short waves. Precip chances ramp up through the day Friday as a second wave lifts out of the Pacific trough. As we head into the weekend, an upper low drops into Oregon, and draws in some drier weather over Idaho. This may possibly bring warmer temps for the weekend as well.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with highs in the low to mid 90s most locations. Friday, the upper ridge to the west will slowly begin to build eastward with a warming trend expected through the weekend.
More Quiet And Nice Weather With A Gradual Increase In High pressure continues to bring the region very pleasant and quiet weather. Mostly clear skies will be around today and tonight with highs back into the lower 80s and overnight lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s. Upper level ridging and height rises will keep the weather quiet and rain free through the weekend.
Skies have cleared out over the Front Range and adjacent plains while dewpoints remain in the lower 50s. The ridge axis aloft will be moving across Colorado through tonight with a drier and warmer airmass spreading over Colorado. Any storms going this evening will quickly diminish in the evening with the ridge overhead. This will keep temperatures even warmer at the base of the foothills. The upper ridge axis will push into Kansas Friday morning.
337 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A pleasant day ahead for central and southeast IL as 1019 mb high pressure over lower MI and northern parts of IL/MO settles southward into the mid MS and Ohio valley toward evening. Lows tonight 55-60F with coolest readings near the IN border closer to high pressure ridge and lightest winds. A fair amount of sunshine expected again on Friday with warmer highs in the low to mid 80s with sw flow. Dewpoints remain low in the low to mid 50s on Friday. Lows Friday night in the lower 60s, with areas along the IN border around 60F.
As for temperatures, with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains, look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) once again tonight. A prevailing southerly flow will draw slightly warmer air into western Kansas Thursday allowing highs to push well up into the 80s(F) by late afternoon. Much drier conditions are likely Friday through the weekend as weak upper level ridging moves east across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains during the period.
326 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 We can expect another day of convection off the higher terrain of New Mexico although chances of reaching West Texas may be a little bit lower than seen the previous few days. A stronger theta-e ridge will exist over eastern New Mexico extending into the western South Plains. However, the ridge axis to the west will begin to shift over the region resulting in acting to suppress convection. Temperatures will warm this weekend well into the 90s as the ridge moves directly over West Texas. A deep trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will encourage dry line development locally this weekend.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low spinning across the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, there is an inverted trough across the forecast area with easterly winds in NE TN and SW VA and northeasterly winds further to the south across the Central and Southern Valley. 0 inch range as another spoke of vorticity rotates around the closed low. It appears the best chances will be across the higher elevations where the terrain will add additional lift. The lower heights aloft, scattered showers/storms, and increased cloud cover will lead to high temperatures well below average. The closed low will lift to the northeast late in the day into early Friday with northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure at the surface.
/EC/ As of 230z, a mid/upper-level trough axis was located to the east of the CWA with the area under the influence of NW flow and a much drier and cooler airmass with daytime highs this afternoon running about 5-7 degrees below average. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: Looking across the country this afternoon, troughs of low pressure were anchored off the West Coast and along the East Coast with a broad ridge extending from Mexico through the Plains. The ArkLaMiss region has seen building high pressure at the surface under northerly flow aloft today. This "cool" and dry pattern will continue through the night and into tomorrow, with highs and lows forecast to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal.
Showers and thunderstorms over the High Plains will encounter an increasingly hostile environment as they move southeast toward Oklahoma/north Texas overnight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have formed in the moist upslope flow over the High Plains of New Mexico, Texas, and Colorado this afternoon. Otherwise, we expect the light northeast winds to turn southeast by mid-morning Thursday as the effects of a weak "backdoor" cold front dissipate. Storms should form over the High Plains Thursday afternoon, perhaps near a residual surface boundary. By early evening, the low level flow will increase which should help maintain and perhaps organize storm development within northwest flow aloft. A mid and upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten and shift east going into the weekend. This will bring warmer temperatures along with breezy and gusty winds.
320 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today. Low pressure is then expected to pass east of our region tonight and early Friday, but plenty of shower activity is expected due to an upper level low.
Thereafter, the high pressure ridge responsible for the excessive heat the past few days will shift east of the region. The eastward shift in the upper high will be in response to a system entering the Pacific Northwest and tracking through the Intermountain west.
The low cloud deck expanded westward a little more than the previous forecast suggested. Expect the low clouds to erode from northwest to southeast through the morning, clearing VLD by about 17 or 18z when all terminals will be VFR for the remainder of the TAF. This will force a weak wedge that has developed under easterly low-layer flow through the region by early to mid afternoon, and push even further south the cold front currently draped across north-central Florida. While high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 80s in most locations, the wedge will keep highs in the upper 70s through the Suwannee Basin and south-central Georgia.
555 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A pleasant day ahead for central and southeast IL as 1019 mb high pressure over lower MI and northern parts of IL/MO settles southward into the mid MS and Ohio valley toward evening. Lows tonight 55-60F with coolest readings near the IN border closer to high pressure ridge and lightest winds. A fair amount of sunshine expected again on Friday with warmer highs in the low to mid 80s with sw flow. Dewpoints remain low in the low to mid 50s on Friday. Lows Friday night in the lower 60s, with areas along the IN border around 60F.
The weather pattern begins to change this weekend as an area of low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest.
443 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge will remain over the Rockies through tonight, with a an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This will keep our area in northwest flow aloft through tonight, with the possibility of a few very weak impulses rotating around the ridge axis and across West Central Texas later this afternoon and evening.
Lee troughing will continue across eastern Colorado through tonight leading to southerly winds felt across western Kansas. Highs today look to reach into the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
It will be cooler tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will become absorbed the northern stream upper low over the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Region by Thursday morning. allowing much drier and cooler air will filter into the area Thursday. Overnight temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler than previous nights.
The upper trough is expected to move faster than the surface front this afternoon, and the disjointed forcing will cause thunderstorms to weaken as they reach south central WI with the loss of daytime heating. Our highs today will be just a notch warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
144 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper level low will linger across the Eastern Great lakes tonight and finally move off the East Coast Friday. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area Friday night. Most of the area continues to be shrouded by lake effect clouds as upper level low lingers across the Eastern Great Lakes. Upper level low dumbbells across area tomorrow morning setting up return of some lake effect clouds and isolated showers. Upper level ridge finally builds into the Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon ejecting low off the East Coast. But before the upper ridge sets in a weak surface cold front will move across the forecast area Friday night. With building upper level ridge and limited moisture will only go with chance pops with the system for now.
148 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A developing low pressure system offshore the southeast coast will track slowly northeast offshore the Carolina coast through Thursday, then lift rapidly northeast to the Canadian maritimes Thursday night and Friday.
140 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 All of the models agree that H5 heights will rise through the short term as the ridge out across the Rockies develops eastward and eventually across our area.
404 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Upper level trough currently draped across the Appalachian Mountains extends well into the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough will gradually shift east with high pressure following behind it and passing over the CWA.
438 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 The upper low that has resided across the region the past several days, and brought us a string of days with below normal temperatures will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region tonight and Friday.
139 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A slow moving upper level low will affect our weather through Friday.
This will force a weak wedge that has developed under easterly low-layer flow through the region by early to mid afternoon, and push even further south the cold front currently draped across north-central Florida. While high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 80s in most locations, the wedge will keep highs in the upper 70s through the Suwannee Basin and south-central Georgia.
653 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today. Low pressure is then expected to pass east of our region tonight and early Friday, but plenty of shower activity is expected due to an upper level low.
457 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 An upper low will spin across southwest Pennsylvania before moving into New England tonight. High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight into Friday, before a pair of disturbances drop southeast through the Great Lakes Friday and Friday night.
256 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low into Thursday night. High pressure and warming conditions for the weekend into the beginning of the new work week. Unsettled weather to continue today, as upper low continues to linger across the area. Could be some river valley fog towards morning across the area, depending on how quickly the low and associated cloud cover pulls out of the region. The upper low finally moves northeast of the area Thursday night. Expect a decrease in shower activity Friday with moderate high pressure building across the region through the weekend.
The apex of the upper ridge in place over the Rockies sharpens over the next 36 hours as it begins to push eastward across the high plains on Thursday ahead of the large low approaching the Pacific Northwest.