Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1217 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 An area of low pressure will pull off to the Canadian Maritimes tonight, with partial clearing expected tonight. Tomorrow a weak cold front will bring an isolated shower to the region.
High pressure will remain north of the area, keeping easterly winds in place through the next couple of days, with the sea breeze turning winds onshore in the afternoon. This weekend, the high will sink southward, with winds becoming more southeast over the southern waters transitioning to more southwest across the northern waters.
810 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 High pressure in the Atlantic will shift a little farther eastward and a weak pressure trough will develop in the forecast area today. The trough will become more pronounced Thursday.
Storms in southern-most Idaho were near an upper low over northern Nevada.
(Issued 912 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016) A moisture plume associated with the right flank of a stalled broad trough continues to extend from Baja California to the New England States.
Best chances will come late tonight when a cold front is expected to move across the forecast area late this evening into the early morning hours tonight. Expect much cooler temperatures Thursday along with increasing shower coverage during the afternoon and evening. Late this evening, a surface cold front will dive southward through the area. Thursday will be significantly more cloudy and cooler than today with highs in the lower 70s.
1004 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 An area of low pressure will pull off to the Canadian Maritimes tonight, with partial clearing expected tonight. Tomorrow a weak cold front will bring an isolated shower to the region.
/issued 345 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure situated over the sern CONUS keeping a very moist mainly srly low-level flow in place over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place from the wrn Atlantic across the Gulf Coast region along with a weak shear axis just to our west which is helping pull in additional mid/upper-level moisture. Despite the ridging capping is weak. Consensus here is that the models may be relying too much on this ridging building in from the east which is leading to reduced POPs over the next several days.
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area.
A few showers will be possible near the terminals during the overnight hrs as an upper level low moves w across South Florida. /issued 700 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016/ The upper level low will continue to move slowly west from South Florida into the eastern Gulf Of Mexico tonight.
Ceilings will mainly be in the low MVFR range, but a few hours of IFR will certainly be possible, and BR may reduce visibilities for a couple of hours again, much like this past morning. The low clouds will probably reach close to KGAG and KWWR before being beaten back by daytime heating, which will also raise ceilings farther southeast.
711 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Dissipating cold front will erode over the Mid Atlantic region tonight.
Most convection pushed west and significant weakened by 8 pm with some shower activity developing offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast this evening in the vicinity of a weak trough axis embedded within the low level Bermuda ridge. Offshore expect an increase in spotty showers through the night as the trough axis edges farther westward toward the N Fl Atlantic coast while progressively breaking down. Very muggy conditions will continue under mostly clear skies as low temperatures fall into the low/mid 70s inland to near 80 along the Atlantic coast and inland waterways.
719 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 High pressure in the Atlantic will shift a little farther eastward and a weak pressure trough will develop in the forecast area today. The trough will become more pronounced Thursday. Convection this afternoon and early evening focused in the Piedmont trough convergence area. A few storms have had elevated strong cores however warm mid level temperatures/upper level ridge axis subsidence area and resulting weaker instability in the Midlands limiting development.
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 As a subtle mid level trof axis finally moves away tonight, and is replaced by quasi-zonal flow, light showers should end at least temporarily across the entire PAH forecast area, with the possibility of re-development in the southern Pennyrile region late in the night.
Per proximity to weak sfc ridging influences, light N winds CSV to light W winds CKV becoming light SWLY by 19/06Z.
Mid level cloudiness will continue to increase across the area through 12Z in advance of an upper level low pressure trough.
1035 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 High pressure will drift east tonight with south to southeast flow gradually increasing. From mid morning into the afternoon warm and dry air will build in to the lower and mid levels allowing a cap to develop, so thunderstorm potential will be greatly diminished.
Weather has quieted down this evening after a few thunderstorms popped over the high Sierra and Lassen Park this afternoon.
703 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 An area of low pressure will pull off to the Canadian Maritimes tonight, with partial clearing expected tonight. Tomorrow a weak cold front will bring an isolated shower to the region.
630 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 Broad upper level ridging should essentially keep us dry.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night, may be a degree or two warmer. Look for min temps tonight a deg or two higher than persistence with the higher start from slightly warmer temps today, or readings in the upper 60s most sites. Ditto for Thursday, with max temps a deg or two higher than persistence, favoring the higher MET MOS values, or from the mid 80s south and east of STL metro to around 90 elsewhere.
1126 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Dissipating cold front will erode over the Mid Atlantic region tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 72 90 / 30 50 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 71 87 / 40 50 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 72 88 / 40 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 68 86 / 40 40 30 50.
Critical Fire Weather Conditions due to Gusty Winds and Low Relative Humidity in the Yakima Valley and the Lower Columbia Basin.
Per proximity to weak sfc ridging influences, light north winds CSV to light west winds CKV becoming light swly by 18/24Z.
635 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 Tonights updates will revolve primarily on timing of pcpn into the FA ahead of approaching cold front. High pressure over eastern SD will shift east and set up return flow into the eastern Dakotas this evening as a cold front currently extending from northeast MB through southwest Sask drops south into northern tier CONUS. cold front will drop into far northwest ND this evening, with some showers or convection out ahead of the front reaching the RRV possibly by midnight.
/Issued 321 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016/ The weather pattern over GA remains under the influence of a southwesterly flow aloft due to an upper trough just west of the MS river valley and an upper high centered over Bermuda. SBCAPE will remain in the 1500-2000 J/kg with max temps a few degrees above normal in the low to mid 90s.
Building high pressure ridge is bringing sunny skies, warming temperatures and light winds. Morning lows were relatively cool, but by 9 am it was 1 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
905 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes today will shift east Friday.
1209 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure passes to our east today.
1253 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure passes to our east today.
/issued 304 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/ Even warmer readings tonight across the Midsouth making it feel more like mid July then September. upper level ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to bring hot and humid weather to the area.
High pressure over the Great Lakes region will build eastward and ridge southward into the western Carolinas through the weekend. With Julia offshore and the ridge to the west, a tight pressure gradient will produce gusty NE winds this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70. This will continue the moist onshore flow with the highest precipitable water values over eastern SC. Went with the warmer guidance for high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as upper level ridging builds over the southeastern states. Previous discussion: The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge.
The low over the Gulf appears to be gaining more steam, indicated by a bloom of convection near the wave axis and increasingly northeast flow over our area. /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016/ Weak ridging over the state, weak low pressure over the (west) central Gulf maintaining an easterly flow pattern and occasional periods of higher Gulf moisture advecting inland will increase the probabilities of precipitation. The presence of this western Gulf low/inverted trough will create just enough instability, when in tandem with greater than 2. Over the next several days, most of the rain will fall across the coastal counties, or where the highest moisture will reside.
958 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure centered along the Ontario Quebec border will build southeast into New England through tonight before retreating offshore on Friday.
642 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Massive high pressure that is covering the Great Lakes as well as Srn Ontario & Swrn Quebec is teaming with a weak low pressure trough situated across Ern CO to produce weak, moisture-laden E-SE flow across KS. With broad mid-upper ridging covering the Great Lakes the upper- deck wave should undergo modest cyclogenesis as it lifts slowly NE across the Dakotas today and tonight. The upper cyclone approaches the Great Lakes, the downstream ridge will deamplify & by Fri the cyclone should once again transition into an open wave. This would enable a se-moving cold front to venture into KS on Fri.
Marine stratus over the most of the lowlands this morning will retreat to the coast today.
704 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 The center of upper level low pressure will track from Montana into North Dakota today. This is part of a large upper level trough that will track from the Rockies into the central plains by tonight. As low pressure deepens in eastern Colorado, surface winds will tend to back to the southeast which should hold low level moisture in place. With at least some breaks in the clouds, surface instability will increase with the low level moisture in place. The cold front and attendant mid-level trough will largely be east of the cwa Friday.
941 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Building high pressure will provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures until the approach of a weekend frontal system. Main change was to add a slight chance of a shower or storm to the southeastern ridges this afternoon. As high pressure shifts east Friday, some moisture return on low-level easterly flow may bring a stray shower into the ridges Friday afternoon.
745 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes today will shift east Friday.
Update: Latest radar image along with the latest HRRR run support continued convective development along the lower Yellowstone valley and adjoining areas. Gilchrist Previous discussion: Upper low over western Wyoming expected to clip eastern Montana as it lifts into North Dakota today.
911 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 Upper level low centered over eastern MT this morning shifts east into the Dakotas this afternoon. Dry and warmer conditions expected this afternoon as weak upper level ridging and dry northerly flow aloft develops over the region.
1159 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. With Julia offshore and the ridge to the west, a tight pressure gradient will produce gusty NE winds this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70.
1037 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 Updated the pops and sky grids across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado earlier this morning for the rest of the afternoon due to upper level low pressure system moving across the north. Coverage will be isolated and end this evening as drier and more stable air moves in behind this trough. An upper trough will move along the northern Utah and Colorado borders today while its associated cold front cuts through Colorado from northwest to southeast.
Made some adjustments to winds as a weak frontal trough has pushed into the northern marine zone (adjacent to Volusia county).
638 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 A weak RIDGE aloft exists over our region early this morning. The cold front that moved thru our region 24hrs ago has made it to the Deep South. RIDGE aloft and a surface front well to the south with easterly flow. The main difference will be in southeast MO and far southern IL where higher amounts of clouds and the front now being thru those areas should result in a cooler day from yesterday.
1000 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure passes to the north today.
1041 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 The Mid-South is starting out warmer this morning than yesterday. /issued 304 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/ Even warmer readings tonight across the Midsouth making it feel more like mid July then September. upper level ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to bring hot and humid weather to the area.
Dry weather and warmer daytime temperatures will continue for the interior through the week as high pressure builds over the region. Upper level ridging will gradually build into the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days.
1039 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south over the region tonight and Friday providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
929 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure and dry conditions will be present today. A warm front will lift northwards across the area on Friday. Drier and cooler airmass to affect the region today. Mid/Upper level ridge to build east becoming centered over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by late afternoon. Stratus which developed in the post frontal environment across northern Ky and portions of the lower Scioto Valley will slowly erode. Cooler and less humid air will be in place across the region today. High pressure will allow for dry conditions. A warm front will lift northwards during the day on Friday.
High pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with mostly clear skies and dry conditions along with above normal temperatures.
A weak prefrontal trough axis currently stretches from western North Carolina west-southwest through northeastern AL further west to near the Columbus, MS. KTW (Issued 633 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016) For 12Z TAFs: VFR weather is forecast across the area for the TAF period, as weak high pressure controls the weather.
Temperatures are running generally 3 to 8 degrees warmer across our CA and NV zones and about the same in our AZ zones compared to this time yesterday, with severe clear skies everywhere.
A deep and well stacked anticyclone remains entrenched across the extreme western North Atlantic. Dry/warm layers in the low-mid troposphere will squelch ambitious convection. The last time the high temperature in Key West failed to breach the 80 degree mark was back on May 7th, some 131 days ago, when a high of 78 degrees was observed.
/15/ Today through Friday night, Anomalous ridging over the ArkLaMiss region will maintain anticyclonic, subsident flow, and low level moisture divergence, thus limiting diurnal shower/thunderstorm coverage for most of the forecast area today.
258 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 High pressure over northeast California and western Nevada will slowly weaken through Thursday with a few showers possible over southern Mono and western Mineral Counties. The ridge weakens further late week as a trough of low pressure moves into the West Coast.
235 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Cold front currently extending from Michigan across north central Illinois then back up into South Dakota will dive south today and into northwest Middle Tennessee by mid afternoon and continue to push through the Mid State as we go into the early evening. Air mass behind the front will reinforce the cooler Autumn temps now in place.
Backing low to mid level flow downstream of southward moving closed upper low over the OH valley will begin the large scale set-up for what should be a multi-day/36+hour heavy precipitation event focused over far south-central PA into Northern VA/MD. Precip probs will increase through the day with moderate showers likely reaching the Lower Susq. Max QPF amounts derived from WPC blend are located over the Lower Susq. An enhanced convergence axis/frontal zone is progged to develop on the east side of an upper low meandering over the OH/TN Valley, tapping into deep moisture/high PW air off the Atlantic Gulf Stream via anomalous east/southeast low level jet.
247 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 A mid to upper level low will continue to move northward over the area today, bringing variable mid and high clouds and the potential of a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the mountains.
A cold front will pass through the state Wednesday afternoon and evening. Will see a gusty WSW wind of 9-13 kts across northern and sections during the late morning and afternoon, developing in association with the previously mentioned cold frontal passage.
251 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low continues to spin nearly in place over the Great Lakes today, sending another shot of cooler air southward in the northerly flow behind. Forecast through the end of the week and much of the weekend remains dry and mild with upper ridge aloft remaining intact as the upper low lingers in the Ohio Valley.
310 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A quasi-stationary frontal zone will meander over the area through late in the work week, as a deep upper level low settles over the Tennessee Valley. As the mid/upper level cyclone drifts south towards the TN Valley, models indicate a weak surface wave will develop along the quasi-stationary frontal zone in place across Western NC.
A deep upper low will cut off and sag south over the Ohio River Valley while upper ridging builds in over the Plains this week. The upper low to our east will send a weak backdoor cold front through the area overnight tonight.
423 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 High pressure will bring the area mostly sunny skies through this morning before clouds increase and thicken late this afternoon. A cold clear morning across the region as temperatures range from the upper 30s in the cooler valleys to the middle 40s on the hilltops. Mostly sunny skies will persist through early afternoon with high pressure in the vicinity. Late this afternoon clouds will increase from south to north as the upper level low in the western Great Lakes begins dropping south. Over the northern forecast area will cap pops at low chance or slight chance as high pressure in eastern Canada will keep a drier low level easterly flow.
1122 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Deep closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. This will support mean ridging with associated waa over the northern plains under dry nw flow and no sig wx in the period. Rotating Fujiwara like impulse will support a weak backdoor cold front into the fa tonight. Upper ridge axis will cross the region Thursday, with southwest flow developing.
320 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A broad circulation around a deep low pressure system across the Great Lakes, will continue to wrap moisture and possibly a few light rain showers across west central Wisconsin and east central, south central Minnesota this afternoon. The other concern today is the persistent cloud cover which was to scatter out overnight, but with the system a bit further to the west and an Upper Ridge expected to build across southeast Canada, the clouds will likely linger into the evening. Eventually drier air will filter southwest as the Upper Ridge continues to build north of the Great Lakes.
148 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Aviation A large area of low pressure over the central Great Lakes will produce cool temperatures and showery weather during the next several days.
551 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Low pressure centered over Northern Lake Michigan will drop south into the Ohio Valley today.
359 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 An upper level low will impact the area Wednesday through Thursday night.
Tonight Through Wednesday High pressure remains anchored over the state through the overnight hours. An area of low pressure is expected to move through the desert southwest beginning early Wednesday morning, and continuing to move northeast through Wednesday.
Later start to convection expected tomorrow as first trough axis crosses region overnight. deep mid level trough over the northern states is sending a trough axis into the eastern Gulf Waters, while low level weak ridging remains over the west Atlantic. On the short term, models show the aforementioned trough gradually weakening, but still keeping deep layer southwesterly flow and streaming moisture across the state.
Short-term model guidance in good agreement that aforementioned trough will finally "slosh" inland (through roughly the SE one-third of the CWA) around mid-day today before washing out. Not expecting excessive rainfall with this activity, with generally stable atmosphere in place beneath ridging aloft, but a quick inch of rain in a few spots near the coast isn't out of the question. hanging onto some isolated PoP's across the extreme southern CWA even into the afternoon, giving a nod to the NAM and another coastal trough coming ashore south of the area. Temps creep back up to the low 90's in the afternoon.
345 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Low pressure centered over Northern Lake Michigan will drop south into the Ohio Valley today.
A cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR this morning with gusty north winds expected behind the front across NE OK into the afternoon hours. /Issued 329 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Early this morning a closed low pressure system was sagging southward across the Great Lakes Region with an associated backdoor cold front pushing southwestward through the Plains and Midwest. The closed low will continue to drift southward into the Ohio River Valley today with the cold front pushing into and through the CWA. This airmass should remain common through the end of the work week as the closed low stalls near/just south of the Ohio River Valley.
646 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 High pressure will bring the area mostly sunny skies through this morning before clouds increase and thicken late this afternoon. A cold clear morning across the region as temperatures range from the upper 30s in the cooler valleys to the middle 40s on the hilltops. Mostly sunny skies will persist through early afternoon with high pressure in the vicinity. Late this afternoon clouds will increase from south to north as the upper level low in the western Great Lakes begins dropping south. Over the northern forecast area will cap pops at low chance or slight chance as high pressure in eastern Canada will keep a drier low level easterly flow.
1125 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 An upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight and Wednesday, as an upper level low slowly moves from northern Baja CA into southern CA. Low temps tonight should mostly be in the 30s and 40s, with around freezing again in the Alamosa area.
With the front draped across central GA and upper level impulses rounding the trough set to the north, can not rule out schc thunderstorm through the next couple hours, especially I-85 and south. Surface front is making its way across north and central Georgia this afternoon but the cooler/drier air is still a day away. A few showers and storms are popping up over the higher elevations of northeast GA where better low lvl forcing exists. Loss of heating after sunset will quickly diminish much of the convection as cooler/drier air begins to filter across our northwest GA counties overnight.