Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
605 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 An upper level ridge will build into the region today keeping conditions dry and allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will get shunted southward as an upper level disturbance moves into the central/northern Plains. This will force an associated cold front into the Plains. Storms will generally be located in the vicinity of the slow moving cold front however they may hold together long enough to again reach the northwestern CWA.
1223 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NO RAIN FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
833 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 11PM BUT WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY END EARLY.
605 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WITH A BROAD RIDGE IN ITS WAKE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH A FAIRLY STRONG JET PUSHING NORTHWARD WELL INTO CANADA. WITH SOME MID 60S ALSO LIKELY IN WESTERN MN NORTHEAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
High pressure at the surface was centered over Arkansas early this afternoon with light to moderate southwest winds dominating locally. A sunny sky and relative warm and dry day has resulted with 20Z temps in the lower to middle 60s. The ridge to the east moves little and an intensifying lee trough brings stronger southwest winds and slightly warmer afternoon temps. Erring on the dry side with gusty southwest winds brings the fire danger index into the Very High for much of the area and only slightly warmer/drier/windier conditions could approach Red Flag.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft will keep most of the short term period dry and cooler. As the short term period progresses, the high pressure slides off to the east and the flow aloft becomes southwest. The only other newsworthy issue in the short term will be temperatures at or below freezing tonight with only slightly warmer readings expected Saturday night.
914 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AR. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS THIS HIGH IS FCST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
511 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS NORTHEAST CONUS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. WAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH STRONG RIDGES AT 250HPA AND 500HPA AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST IS ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE.
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ALONG AND DOWNSLOPE OF THE HIGH RIDGELINES. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. TROUGH PROGRESSION. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WARMER MID- LEVEL AIR MOVES IN. WITH REMAINING LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES DISSIPATING SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
555 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
1006 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
548 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. TEMPS ARE XPCTED TO FALL BELOW 40F AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK EARLY SAT MORNING. LN /ISSUED 140 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/ 19Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS AR. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CORRECT IN FORECASTING A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
539 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 140 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015/ 19Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS AR. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CORRECT IN FORECASTING A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
620 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT MAINLY NNW WIND.
SFC RIDGING WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE REGION. SFC WIND SPEEDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER NE MN THANKS TO THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AFFECT NE MN TONIGHT. THE ONLY ASPECT TO THIS TROF WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FLOATING OVERHEAD. COOLEST MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH CENTRAL WI WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO UNDERGO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH.
515 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
814 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. AND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVED EAST.
For tomorrow, winds will increase and be a bit on the breezy side as lee troughing continues.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AREAWIDE UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE U. WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SPLIT FLOW DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SE GA/NE FL.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES WHILE RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN TOP TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY.
657 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
614 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PUSHES EAST LATE.
520 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 20z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge axis extending from Minnesota southward to the Gulf of Mexico, while deep low pressure continues to retreat into eastern Quebec. With high pressure expected to drift overhead tonight, winds will become light/variable after midnight leading to excellent radiational cooling conditions.
BROAD SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE W WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLR SKIES. THUS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MID STATE WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD LIMIT CONCERNS ON FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WARMER MID- LEVEL AIR MOVES IN. WITH REMAINING LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES DISSIPATING SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
654 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 AVIATION WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDES DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
616 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 57 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 27 51 25 59 / 0 0 0 0 TN.
608 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY TOMORROW THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROF.
/ISSUED 208 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CAA HAS BROUGHT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. AND FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
834 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 UPDATE/MARINE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDES DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
653 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RIDGING STEMMING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGETOPS. THE ARKLATEX HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER AS IT BLEEDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS STAYING IN UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL PEAK A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AND RIDGETOPS IN THE LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
922 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AREAWIDE UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE U. WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SPLIT FLOW DOMINATING THE REST OF THE CONUS.
A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PUSHES EAST LATE.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER TROUGHING MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY SEE THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT. WHICH COULD HAPPEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER AIR. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.
856 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER OUR AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.
COURTESY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH. QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MID 50S ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
925 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
853 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 Updated hourly temperature grids to account for wildly varying cooling conditions as the center of high pressure slides southeast through the region. High pressure will move slowly east of the region tonight through Saturday.
845 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 Clear skies across central IL this evening as a surface and upper level high pressure ridge axis approach from the west. and dry air mass characterized by dewpoints mainly in the low and mid 20s. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge axis extending from Minnesota southward to the Gulf of Mexico, while deep low pressure continues to retreat into eastern Quebec. With high pressure expected to drift overhead tonight, winds will become light/variable after midnight leading to excellent radiational cooling conditions.
Gusty westerly winds will continue late this afternoon with gusts as high as 25-35 mph as we sit in a sharp pressure gradient on the back side of a strong low pressure system. We'll enter a return flow Sat night causing low temps to be a little warmer mainly ranging through the 30s with a few upper 20s over east central KY.
High pressure will move slowly east of the region tonight through Saturday.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
912 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2015 NORTHEASTERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION UNDER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES.
750 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
/61/ COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
854 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
604 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND SOME SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
1226 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. /ISSUED 428 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ ONE MORE RELATIVELY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE UNTIL CHANGES UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO LATE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BETWEEN 20-23Z.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MORE MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING AS WELL. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER C AND N TX INTO OK. THE RIDGE MAY BREAKDOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROF AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH BETTER MIXING.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015 A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of Missouri.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SO EXPECTING OVERALL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRIGGER SOME INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEING TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WI ACROSS PARTS OF IA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LYSIS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTS ERLY THIS AM AS IT MOVES INTO SUBSTANTIAL THETA-E TROUGH.
A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Plan on readings to max out in the low/mid 80s.
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. AS RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS SUBSIDE AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB TO 70 BY NOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. THAT OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
1022 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HRRR HAS LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 10-11Z ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. ON TUES LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUES AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE BEST FORCING.
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ UPPER RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS AREA. AND AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO NE LATE IN WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BIG PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW SLOWLY DIGS SOUTHEAST AND KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, HIGHS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY WHICH WAS WIDESPREAD LOW-TO-MID 80S WITH THE WARM LOCATIONS BEING TALLAHASSEE AND BAINBRIDGE AT 86. WE NUDGED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST UP SLIGHTLY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH OBSERVED CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAY, BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
A large upper level trough over the western U. will slowly move out into the High Plains but mid week.
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST STEERING THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY NOT BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS PROGGED GIVEN THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST. INITIALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
739 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE NE PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINTS OVER THE COASTAL REGION HAS INCREASED TO THE LOWER 60S INDICATING THAT THE THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRIMED THE NEAR SURFACE ATMOSPHERE.
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 INVERTED TROF CURRENTLY OVER SE LA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD TODAY AND TONIGHT. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING AS WELL. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER C AND N TX INTO OK. THE RIDGE MAY BREAKDOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TROF AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.
IN THE LOW LEVELS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN GETTING CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.
706 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. AS RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS SUBSIDE AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB TO 70 BY NOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE SHORT TERM. THAT OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WHILE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE BC THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER AND ACROSS MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BACK FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR.
1123 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/ An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
607 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A NW-SE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE MIDDLE TN AREA THROUGH THE TAF PD. AND ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS FROM THE SW U. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
THAT SAID, MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST, MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST.
938 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.