Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the thermal ridge over our area, little if any changes are expected to temperatures. Otherwise, strong subsidence under the Subtropical Ridge will keep rain out of the forecast.
Cooler temperatures are expected today, then a gradual warming trend is expected through the weekend.
Of greater interest is a remnant convective impulse over the northern Gulf that will begin curling westward around the mid- level ridge today. This is due in large part to the cooler NBM gaining momentum in recent days compared to the hotter MET and MAV output.
545 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Warm, moist advection across central PA will increase shower/thunderstorm chances along the ridges this afternoon. As low-level winds veer from the southeast later today and advance moisture along the ridges, showers and an isolated thunderstorms may develop due to orographic lift.
A brief upper-level trough axis is expected to slide across the area today, with the main impact being increased afternoon diurnal CU development. Tonight into Friday, an upper-level ridge axis will replace the aforementioned trough, allowing temperatures to warm further Friday afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 before warming into the low 80s for Friday for much of the area.
The NAM/GFS show this potential, but most of the high-res guidance is lacking on similar solutions. Today: Upper level ridging is beginning to build into the region today. Tonight: Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the High Plains again and some of those could track eastward into the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to increase into the weekend as upper ridging continues to build in.
A cold front will move through the forecast area today. The cold front will result in continued cooling temperatures, with values expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Friday. Isolated showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain of Idaho and along the Idaho/Nevada border this afternoon after 20Z. A cold front will move through this evening, with gusty northwest winds behind the front.
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Sprawling area of high pressure anchored over the region will sustain benign weather conditions over the next 48 hours. Projected 850-925 mb mean thermal layer roughly 1-2 degrees warmer than noted today, netting highs near or just above 80 degrees.
Dry and pleasant conditions continue across the area this morning as surface ridging extends southward from the Midwest and we remain in a subsident regime. High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the north today. The upper trough that has been parked across the eastern United States, including out region, will move off to the east by the end of this week. As we head into the weekend, the upper ridge will once again build across the Deep South.
The lack of precipitation and cloud coverage will allow high temperatures to climb to the low-to-mid 90s across the CWA Friday afternoon.
High pressure will edge east tonight into Friday, with ridging aloft keeping the region dry. A slight easterly component to the wind will keep lakeside readings several degrees cooler than inland locations.
319 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 The upper air pattern over the past 24 hours has begun to amplify across the Rockies with a ridge building around the northern periphery of the semi-permanent anticyclone over the western TX region. Into the weekend, heights continue to rise as the upper ridge builds across the area.
Dry southwest flow will largely remain across the region over the next 7 days as general troughiness continues across the Great Basin/southwest region. Currently, the low pressure system moving through CA and the Great Basin region has brought breezy afternoon winds to the area and kept temperatures near or slightly below seasonal normals. Winds are expected to decrease tomorrow as the parent trough begins to lift off the northeast. As this weak low 'cuts off' from the parent trough tomorrow, pressure gradients will briefly tighten mainly across northwest AZ where breezy winds with gusts to around 30 mph will be possible for a few hours tomorrow afternoon.
1015 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure at the surface has resulted in a mainly clear sky early this morning. Light and variable winds underneath the high has led to fog formation from the Brainerd Lakes east to northwest Wisconsin. Upper level and surface ridging will cover the region today. The ridging continues tonight. The upper ridging begins to flatten late with the approach of a short wave trof. The surface ridging has departed Friday as the upper flow becomes quasi-zonal.
The highest confidence was placed with KAMA, as the better parameters align BTWN 06/21Z thru 07/00Z. In addition, water vapor shows a short wave trof aloft entering the western combined Panhandles, which is providing lift across the eastern half of the region.
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 247 PM CDT Pleasant summer weather with comfortably low humidity will continue through Friday night and then we'll step back into a warmer and more humid pattern. Highs Friday will top out primarily in the lower 80s inland, with a few spots of 84 degrees, and upper 70s lakeside due to the lake breeze. Castro 307 PM CDT The warm and humid weather makes its return to the local area this weekend as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
A large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region at this time. A warm front currently extends across central Oklahoma and into east Texas.
250 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. An upper level trough axis will remain west of the area tonight while a weak inverted trough lingers over the Carolina Piedmont. Friday and Friday night: Upper level trough axis will remain from the west, keeping the region within a southwest flow aloft. High temperatures should be around 90 or in the lower 90s, kept down by cloud cover and afternoon precipitation.
Temperatures will be somewhat dependent on the extent/duration of cloud cover and rain, but it looks like much of the fa should be warmer Friday afternoon with highs generally at or a little bit above normal for this time of year.
246 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Upper ridging has moved across the central CONUS, with a trough now pushing onshore the Pac NW coast. Deep southerly low level flow has persisted across the region, ahead of broad low pressure across Montana to Wyoming. Warmer temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 80s to around 100. A cold front is progged to push across the CWA Friday night as embedded waves within southwest flow aloft push across the CWA.
Conditions tomorrow will be very similar to today, with temperatures only being a few degrees warmer as highs top out in the mid 80s for most locations.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. For Friday, very weak upper level troughing will persist over the western portions of the area with weak southerly flow across the area. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 90s near the coast to mid 90s inland.
Temperatures have already warmed into the middle and upper 80s in many locations, on track to reach highs in the lower to possibly middle 90s in areas that don't experience the cooling effects of any showers. /issued 316 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ Trough axis remains across the MS valley this morning with NW flow continuing across the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate the highest POPs early this morning generally south and west of a line from Leesville to Morgan City.
259 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 In the near term will be watching the evolution of a small cluster of convection over far south central KS into northeast OK near and northeast of a sfc warm front. Can't rule out some additional Friday afternoon activity (similar to today) as the effective warm front lifts northeast into our cwfa.
The short term remains dry, with temperatures warmer than usual, for early August. Dry and Perhaps Slightly Cooler. The GFS 500mb height ensemble data continues to show, as it has for several days now - a slowly weakening and retrograding ridge aloft. Thus, lows and highs slightly warmer than NBM looked better.
205 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Heights are slowly rising across the area as the upper level ridge axis shifts from the Rockies into the western High Plains. A weak disturbance is rounding the top of the ridge axis and crossing WY at this time. Scattered thunderstorms will again develop on the higher terrain to the west and attempt to push eastward into western and north central NE this evening. Very warm mid-level temperatures spread eastward off the higher terrain across the area Friday. "Cooler" mid 80s to around 90F are expected east of HWY 83.
And to account for the high uncertainty will maintain a slight chance of posp through the daytime tomorrow.
For tonight mid-level ridge will continue to build slowly across the region, with moderate WAA expected to occur via increasing LLJ.
342 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Tonight and Friday: The persistent mid level ridge will begin to weaken a bit moving forward as ridging becomes dominant over TX into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The main impact of the ridging will be to warm the column which will continue to suppress convection and allow for slightly warmer temperatures Friday. /GG/ This weekend: Hot and somewhat drier conditions will continue into the weekend as mid/upper ridging over both the Plains and the northern Atlantic builds into the area slightly.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s and expect these to climb several more degrees before reaching the daytime highs. Expect quiet conditions to continue tonight as high pressure remains in control. Some of the high-resolution models are showing a stray shower or two in the Coastal Plains in the afternoon and will mention this with a 10 PoP as odds of any accumulations are pretty low at this time.
145 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will give way tonight as a wave of low pressure approaches NY.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon was showing an upper ridge in control over the western half of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was centered over SD with a trailing thermal boundary along the SD/NE border. Given this POPs have been trimmed and confined to the lower tier of southeast NE and southwest IA.
253 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Persistent yet stagnant weather pattern continues to dominate with the longwave trough covering much of the eastern-third of the CONUS.
1241 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Temperatures will trend warmer today and then rise above normal this weekend.
Temperatures today were running 1-3 degrees warmer this morning then they were yesterday, resulting in readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s at this time. The upper trough that has been across the area for the past few days will finally move east tonight. Upper level energy will continue to top the upper ridge, centered over the southern Plains, and dive south across MO/AR tonight into Friday, staying just west of the CWA. However, the upper ridge does end up building eastward later tonight into Friday, so we will continue to see temperatures creeping back up to normal, with lower to mid 80s expected for Friday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will continue to build across the area.
were spreading eastward into Northeast Oklahoma along the northeast periphery of a ridge of high pressure currently centered over Southwest Texas. cloud cover looks to scatter out as the ridge of high pressure to the southwest begins to expand over the region. This will allow for warmer/humid conditions to return to much of Eastern Oklahoma with highs back in the 90s. There are some indications that another upper level impulse may try to drop southward along the periphery of the ridge late Friday night that may try to skirt the northeastern part of the CWA. Ridge of high pressure is progged to be the dominate feature through the weekend with hot and humid conditions across the CWA.
224 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Satellite imagery once again shows scattered cumulus favoring the high terrain. Southwest flow continues over the region ahead of a large trough near the west CONUS coast. This continues to push our former high pressure south as the system approaches. As we move into tomorrow, the northern portion of west coast trough will lift to the northeast and allow the large scale gradient to loosen slightly. Outside of some very limited pop and drop convection over the high terrain, hot and dry conditions will remain through the short term. A closed low will remain just off the California coast while a Pacific Northwest trough, well to our north, will flatten the ridge that has remained overhead.
Nwly flow aloft continues across our region, as the upper ridge remains centered over W TX and a trof axis is set up over the ern CONUS. Temps likely to reach into the mid 90s Friday, as the ridge begins to extend its ewd influence in the wake of the departing trof axis. The ridge will begin to reinforce itself ewd overnight Friday night, continuing the warming trend that we began today.
Widespread midlevel convective debris clouds are expected to clear quickly enough to allow for the expected warmer temperatures this afternoon. A typical summer synoptic pattern will dominate with expansive high pressure aloft turning up the heat and squashing rain chances.
There will likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms on Friday as a longwave trough continues to push toward the state. The ridge axis will be across the Dakotas with a trough over Montana/Idaho region.
Thereafter, the region will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure. The area will remain under a stationary front and between an upper- level trough and surface Atlantic high pressure tonight.
An upper level trough will continue to slowly move over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the near term period, with the northern Gulf coast located at the base of this trough. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will persist over the central CONUS and over the Atlantic. A surface front has also stalled over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, with the parent low pressure center located over central Alabama. Low temperatures tonight will then be in the lower to mid 70s along and southeast of I-65 and in the upper 60s to lower 70s northwest of I-65. High temperatures Friday afternoon are likely to be in the lower to mid 90s north of I-10 and in the upper 80s south.
The upper level ridge will move overhead tonight and stick around through the weekend. Highs Friday will be around 80 with dewpoints rising to around 60, and then lows Fri nt will be in the lower 60s.
224 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will give way tonight as a wave of low pressure approaches NY.
Will soon be able to update the afternoon forecast to lower convective coverage into the isolated category for at least the Lower and Middle Keys. The HRRR still shows a little development downwind of the Lower Keys during peak afternoon heating, but its depiction would still fall into the isolated category. An Atlantic ridge axis will become established across Central Florida today, followed by slow strengthening through the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer along with higher dewpoints making it a bit more uncomfortable outside.
124 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Favorable aviation conditions continue through the TAF period as high pressure remains well established over the Great Lakes. Persistence forecast in play today as SE MI remains under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure, now in place across the Great Lakes region and locations east.
A warmer and more humid airmass will begin to build into the area through the weekend. Also can't rule out isolated showers across the southeast portion of the CWA closer to the inverted trough and where slightly better moisture/weak convergence is located, but the majority will see a dry afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will continue to influence the region Friday/Friday night, with an inverted trough over the Appalachians.
High pressure centered over W TX this afternoon is progged to slowly move east tonight through Friday. A weak embedded short wave will move south to southeast around the outer periphery of the high which will bring slightly deeper moisture into eastern portions of S TX late tonight/Fri.
1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure at the surface has resulted in a mainly clear sky early this morning. Light and variable winds underneath the high has led to fog formation from the Brainerd Lakes east to northwest Wisconsin. Upper level and surface ridging will cover the region today. The ridging continues tonight. The upper ridging begins to flatten late with the approach of a short wave trof. The surface ridging has departed Friday as the upper flow becomes quasi-zonal.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 91 69 95 70 / 50 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 88 67 91 67 / 30 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 88 67 91 67 / 20 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 85 63 88 63 / 70 40 0 10 10.
123 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Low pressure over eastern Canada will track away to the northeast today.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 16z surface/composite analysis shows high pressure extending from Wisconsin/Illinois eastward into southern New England with a 1022mb center over central Lower Michigan. Short wave troughing over Lake Superior will continue to track southeast tonight across the forecast area. Surface pattern configuration doesn't change much Friday while short wave ridging builds into the upper Lakes (interesting that NAM-WRF looks like its having a bit of a model convective gravity wave explosion over Minnesota during the day). Thursday at this point looks pretty good with ridging at the surface and aloft.
On Friday, SE TX will lie on the periphery of an upper level ridge centered over West Texas. Convective temperatures will remain around 94 degrees so a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible but think most areas will probably remain dry as subsidence from the ridge will probably be the dominant weather feature.
A high pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to overspread the region.
Further west, anticipating convection to form off the High Plains and try to drift eastward overnight. With the low lvl jet veering by daybreak Friday and the edge of EML advancing northward, will include a low end PoP through mid- morning Friday across much of the forecast area. This activity may ride along the edge of the capping layer which would place the greatest potential area of impact along the Highway 14 corridor and Buffalo Ridge.
Broad ridging will persist over the central Plains, with the leeward trough centered over the Ohio Valley gradually lifting east/northeast causing the ridge to stretch from the Rockies to the Atlantic into the Weekend. Through the afternoon, a weak short wave trough continues to slide southeast from NE/IA with a focus of 315K isentropic ascent from over IA in northern Missouri promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon.
Quiet and dry in the short term with high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows tonight in the 50s east to lower 60s west, with highs on Friday in the lower 80s.
12Z guidance indicates this front will ooze southward through the forecast area tonight into tomorrow, with slightly cooler low temperatures overnight and lower dewpoints through Friday. With the cooler and drier air filtering in, patchy fog is likely tonight particularly over our eastern zones where rain fell today.
Persistent yet stagnant weather pattern continues to dominate with the longwave trough covering much of the eastern-third of the CONUS.
/GG/ Dry and pleasant conditions continue across the area this morning as surface ridging extends southward from the Midwest and we remain in a subsident regime. High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the north today. The upper trough that has been parked across the eastern United States, including out region, will move off to the east by the end of this week. As we head into the weekend, the upper ridge will once again build across the Deep South.
Southwest flow around the upper level ridge center over the region will transport this drier air into Colorado. Because of the drier airmass and increased sunshine, expected warmer temperatures. Colorado will return to a drier west and southwest flow aloft with high pressure ridge aloft covering much of the southern portions of the United States.
Widespread midlevel convective debris clouds are expected to clear quickly enough to allow for the expected warmer temperatures this afternoon. A deeper lee trough is expected to prevail on Friday, Another day of breezy southerly winds will prevail for the forecast period. With the stronger flow, expect highs to be much warmer with some downslope component to the low level winds. With the ridge building over the area, convective prospects look unlikely for Friday.
Marginal risk for severe storms across the north in closer proximity to the upper trough across the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and where instability is a bit higher. Upper pattern beginning to shift some through the period as upper ridging over the western Atlantic and the southern plains build westward and eastward respectively squeezing the upper trough further north.
Winds will become light and variable as well tonight into Friday morning, as high pressure slowly moves east of the region. The upper level ridge will move overhead tonight and stick around through the weekend. Highs Friday will be around 80 with dewpoints rising to around 60, and then lows Fri nt will be in the lower 60s.
438 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A trough from the west will move through tonight into Friday. Longer term, an upper low pressure system hangs around Saskatchewan over the weekend with predominantly zonal flow over Montana.
550 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in and near the ridges both today and Friday afternoon, with mainly dry weather elsewhere. Showers/storms will progress eastward out of the area a bit faster on Friday as upper-level steering becomes more orthogonal to the boundary and the upper-level trough lifts off to the northeast.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is bringing mostly clear skies and temperatures as of 8 PM CDT, in the lower to middle 70s at most locations. A large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region at this time. A warm front currently extends across central Oklahoma and into east Texas.
Low pressure is enveloping the Great Basin, triggering a few thunderstorms across northern Nevada today and once again for Friday.
526 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Summary: Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon across the High Plains of Southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle.
/DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Friday: The persistent mid level ridge will begin to weaken a bit moving forward as ridging becomes dominant over TX into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The main impact of the ridging will be to warm the column which will continue to suppress convection and allow for slightly warmer temperatures Friday. /GG/ This weekend: Hot and somewhat drier conditions will continue into the weekend as mid/upper ridging over both the Plains and the northern Atlantic builds into the area slightly.
Summary: Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon across the High Plains of Southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday late Friday afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks into the region.