Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. AS THE BACK END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER. AND PLAINS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH.
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE I HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
WITH UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER US. HRRR INDICATES SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ZONES OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
WARMER ON MONDAY WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. COOLER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE COMMON ON MON ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FORCING OF AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. DEEP WRLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID/UPPER LOW WILL ENSURE DRY AND GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN RIGHT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS FROM BISMARCK TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST EXPECT THIS DEF ZONE RAIN AREA TO IMPACT A LARGE PART OF THE FCST ARA MONDAY (EXCEPT FAR NW). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY PATH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM E/KSWO TO KOUN TO KDUC TO SE/KSPS. /ISSUED 417 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WE DO HAVE THE COLD FRONT SLIDING SLOWLY INTO THE DFW METRO OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVING INTO WACO BY DAWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
The upper level low continued to lift north into south central SD this afternoon. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Monday, Low-level CAA with west-northwest surface winds will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s. There may be some afternoon CU as the cold core of the upper trough will be over residual moisture at the surface, thus when temps reach Tc, scattered to broken boundary layer CU will develop by afternoon. Nearly all the ascent ahead of the upper trough will be well east of the CWA.
THE TROWAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION /NOW NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER KPIR/ AS IT SLOWLY SPINS NORTH AND EAST INTO MINNESOTA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION ON MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO TRACK WITH LIKELY MORE WEATHER. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF FORCING UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER SD/NB IS NEGATIVELY TILTING ALONG WITH GRANTED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS EARLY MONDAY WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING AREA. COLD FRONT STILL JUST EAST OF TX PANHANDLE.
THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE 8 INCHES WAS REPORTED EARLIER IN SELFRIDGE AND 3-5 FROM HAZELTON. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COULD BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY INTERFERE WITH THE QUALITY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST PROMOTING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BAY AREA.
OTHERWISE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
749 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT LIFTING THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH AXIS REACHING UP TO CENTRAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BRING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BACKING MORE EAST LATE IN THE DAY.
AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE DRIVER FOR SHORT TERM WX. WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS LOW SERVES AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE WX. COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS LOW WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ROUND 2 OF STORMS TONIGHT. ASCENT REGION OF 300 MB JET OVER NW CWA THROUGH 06Z MON PUSHING EASTWARD WITH THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. BEST TORNADO THREAT LIES WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THIS CLEAR SLOT TO COME IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS MON MORNING.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO NW GA BY 06-12Z TUE. AND IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE LOW 90S MONDAY.
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF I-35 SO CONVECTION REGENERATION POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA MON AFTN. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO TRACK WITH LIKELY MORE WEATHER. COLD FRONT STILL JUST EAST OF TX PANHANDLE.
AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS SEEN MOVING INTO THE KABI/KSPS AREAS ATTM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT AT DFW TERMINALS SHIFTING WINDS LIGHT W/SW LESS THAN 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
A WARM FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF MACOMB TO JUST SOUTH OF PEORIA AND NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THE REST OF TODAY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PROJECTED TO PEAK FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. MORE CONVECTION PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL BY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WEST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH COOLER LOWER 60S BY GALESBURG. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. COOLER/DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
ONE AREA OF RAIN AND MOISTURE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AND LAKES COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY PATH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE ESE THROUGH IOWA. THIS LOW IS MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY NNE AND WILL CONTINUE ON THAT PATH THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT VERY CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE STRONG SHEAR AND SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. THE LOW WILL TAKE A RIGHT TURN TOMORROW AND MOVE EAST FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AND DIRECTLY EAST OF THERE.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER NE FL REMAINED ISOLATED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT ADDITIONAL ISOLD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN WITH THE UPR RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S /POCKETS OF UPR 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN GA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OREGON COAST MONDAY WITH A DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES START TO GO UPWARD FROM HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SSW 8-12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING THE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP OVERTOP A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL INSENTROPICALLY AND DYNAMICALLY LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE NOSE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SUBSIDENT REGIME EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET WITH ABSENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
846 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AND NEAR THE RIDGES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT'S APPROACH MONDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY POP EARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO SW WITH THE DEPARTURE OF ANA. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
WITH UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SD. IN THE MEANTIME WE HAVE HAD SOME WET SNOW IN EASTERN CARTER COUNTY FROM THE MONSTER UPPER LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH REPORTS OF 1-3 INCHES ON NATURAL TERRAIN AS OF MIDDAY. BUT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION ON MONDAY.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS SEEING FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A PLEASANT START TO THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CAUSE A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF FORCING UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER SD/NB IS NEGATIVELY TILTING ALONG WITH GRANTED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS EARLY MONDAY WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING AREA. COLD FRONT STILL JUST EAST OF TX PANHANDLE.
MID/UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EARLY MONDAY WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING AREA. COLD FRONT STILL JUST EAST OF TX PANHANDLE.
543 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS SEEING FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A PLEASANT START TO THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CAUSE A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY PATH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
623 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A WARM FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF MACOMB TO JUST SOUTH OF PEORIA AND NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THE REST OF TODAY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PROJECTED TO PEAK FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. MORE CONVECTION PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL BY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WEST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH COOLER LOWER 60S BY GALESBURG. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. COOLER/DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS REMAINED WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED MOST OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
Clouds increasing this evening with upper level low dropping south into Oregon.
COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATE ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE STORMS.
510 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 WILL CONTINUE AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL TROUGH SINKING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW 2. UPPER TROUGH AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RESULTED IN A VERY WET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING OBSERVED WHICH PRODUCED FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PINELLAS AND PASCO COUNTIES. AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NORTH SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE TAKES CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.
744 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEATHER SYSTEM AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
744 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT DEWPOINTS TOMORROW MAY INSTEAD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. WHILE THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE IS JUST WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST STILL AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE H8 OR SO AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT INVERSION-LEVEL LOOKS INSUFFICIENT FOR MORNING MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER DURING SATURDAY THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALLOWING A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ACADIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE OR TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S TEMPS, HOWEVER MIXING ONCE AGAIN WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER FOR HARPER AND WOODS COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS REMAIN IN OUR NW-SC COUNTIES.
927 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST STILL AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE H8 OR SO AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT INVERSION-LEVEL LOOKS INSUFFICIENT FOR MORNING MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER DURING SATURDAY THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALLOWING A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ACADIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE OR TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S TEMPS, HOWEVER MIXING ONCE AGAIN WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
1029 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 UPDATE AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD E TO THE MS RIVER OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. 850MB RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN A NULL CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEARING/REACHING THE CENTURY MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
940 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
713 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
1038 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE PINE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES.
857 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS GENERATED SOME CLOUD COVER.
For the overnight, upper wave forecast to top the upper ridge centered over the central Plains. less cloud cover along with the position of the upper ridge should allow heat index values to once again climb in excess of 105 degrees. Although readings should be a couple of degrees cooler tomorrow than today most locations south of the Missouri river should reach advisory criteria.
707 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. AT MID AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS FROM ABOUT INL TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF OVR 14,000 FT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH FOR HAIL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF NWRN WI LATER THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
1047 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 355 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND KEEPING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOULD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AND MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABORAD TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE LOW.
704 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
728 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE, WILL KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PLEASANT AND DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BACK SE WITH MOISTURE TRANSITION EASTWARD.
1050 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP RAINFREE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF SATURDAY.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MUCH OF KS UNDER THE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE, WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS CO INTO NE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 WILL CONTINUE AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY.
An upper level ridge is currently centered over the Texas Panhandle and Caprock areas this afternoon. With the ridge firmly in control, skies are completely clear, leading to very hot temperatures once again. With the ridge not moving much for Saturday, 850mb temperatures will be able to warm a degree or two across the area.
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL BRING THE H500 RIDGE THROUGH THE STATE.
956 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A WARM WEEKEND OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE.
951 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE, WILL KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PLEASANT AND DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1258 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.