Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite imagery revealed only scattered cirrus with the associated positively tilted trough passing over Kansas. A few locations on the lowest elevations of the southeast zones may achieve 60, but continued to undercut guidance across/near Scott county with highs near 50.
The cold front stretching from northeast Iowa into north central Wisconsin will slowly push east tonight and clear southeast Wisconsin around midnight tonight. There is a slight chance for some very light snow or freezing drizzle with the front, but if any were to develop it would be brief as any saturation that happens with the front will be replaced with more dry air. Monday will be dry under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves in, but high temps will be about 15 degrees colder than today.
1056 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will start the day overhead, but start to slide eastward through the day. Upper level ridging will keep it dry today. Warm advection/southerly flow ahead of approaching upper trough, combined with a fair amount of sun, should push temperatures a few degrees above average Monday afternoon. By late in the day a cold front will approach northwest PA. The low is moving a little too quickly to throw precip more than a trace back into the CWA. A moisture-starved cold front is progged to cross the commonwealth Monday eve/night.
Cold front moving through the area with a N wind in its wake. (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper levels have a trough extending from Canada to the Rockies that swings down through NM today while a ridge remains centered along the CA coast. This trough will slowly move into W TX tonight and pass on to Central TX Monday. Overall expect similar to a bit cooler high temperatures tomorrow in the 40s and 50s. One model tries to skirt the edge of Presidio County tonight with showers as the trough comes through but the rest are dry so not expecting any precip through Monday night.
a bit of freezing drizzle and light snow is possible late tonight into Monday. The first of a long train of upper level troughs will be impacting the area this period. The result will be little/no ice production and a subsequent threat of freezing drizzle. NW flow off Lk MI will help overcome some of this with previous grids showing either light snow or freezing drizzle still working out well late tonight into Mon AM before the colder air (albeit it nothing like past surges) arrives and gives a slightly more favorable thermal profile for all snow. Atmospheric train tracks will remain active with several more troughs set to impact the area in some fashion, each becoming more amplified with time and potentially greater impacts.
804 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
High pressure situated to the north of the peninsula continues to produce easterly winds. /issued 157 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ A large ridge will remain aloft over the southeastern U. At the surface, high pressure will remain north of the state, keeping an east to northeast wind in place across the region. As the ridge finally starts weakening late this week into the weekend, additional moisture starts to return and rain chances go back up. High pressure north of the region will keep east to northeast winds in place through the next several days, with surges each night bringing wind speeds up to exercise caution levels.
627 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Very amplified pattern was currently over the CONUS with upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi valley, a deep trough covering much of the western U. Pretty decent moisture in the area between the ridge and trough with Pacific upper moisture and strong Gulf moisture in the lower levels.
Temps will be cold tomorrow morning, with readings at or below freezing over most of the agricultural zones. The Lower Treasure Valley of Oregon, which was under a Frost Advisory a couple night ago, will see another frost tonight.
937 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A cold front over Kansas and Iowa will move slowly to the southeast over the next couple days.
1052 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 The persistent upper level trough to the west of Utah will finally move east through the area Wednesday morning. High pressure aloft will replace the trough later Wednesday.
307 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Not much has changed this morning with a strong ridge continuing to reside over the region.
The broad area of high pressure to the east will bounce the trough moving through the Rockies a little farther north than previously progged. We will still see the influence of the trough axis passing over a nearly saturated boundary layer today into early tomorrow morning.
308 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Wave of low pressure currently passing through eastern IA/northern IL. Deep mid-level closed low and trough will bring another round of showers across the area later this afternoon into tonight.
The region remains under a large ridge of high pressure which covers most of the eastern U. Highs today will be even warmer than Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
217 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
Areas of fog will also persist through the morning as cooler air behind the front combining with low level moisture should keep fog in place through the late morning and stratus clouds through much of the day. Many areas behind the cold front will have steady temperatures until the late afternoon where we could see some peaks of sunshine. Highs will range from the 60s in the cooler air to the 70s to near 80 for areas along the Oklahoma border. High pressure will start to move into northern Kansas.
Surface observations indicated mainly light rain falling near Fort Peck at this moment, but it could transition into light snow as temperatures drop to near freezing levels. FGC Previous discussion: Low clouds and light showers will continue to linger across northeast Montana as an upper trough lifts through the region into Wednesday. Steadier precipitation will occur with this trough moving through, and temperatures may support mixing with snow at times, especially by Wednesday evening as precipitation begins to exit to the east.
Active pattern continues with the large upper low currently spinning over ID expected to move into the Western Plains later today, then off into northern MN tonight.
/issued 252 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U. Temperatures will be well above normal, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s and highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
Thankfully humidity levels are not too bad with current dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. More record heat is expected tomorrow as upper level high centers right over us, although ridge will begin weakening so temps look to be a hair "cooler" than today's readings.
Primary focus is on behavior of cold front that stretches from C IA, to along the srn Nebraska/Nrn KS border, to SE CO this afternoon. which is keeping a deep upper-deck trough over Wrn MT & ID. The upper-deck pattern slowly deamplifies Wed & Wed Night as the afore-mentioned upper trough widens as it pushes E across the Northern Rockies Wed then across the Northern Plains Wed Night. The Weekend: Another strong mid-upper wave will surge across the Rockies on Fri but would decelerate as it approaches the Great Plains due to a a rapidly amplifying upper ridge that'll punch from the SE U. IFR/LIFR cigs will prevail across central Kansas overnight and Wednesday to the north of a very slow moving cold front.
1043 PM PDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A drier northerly flow will continue over the Inland Northwest through Wednesday, with near freezing overnight lows and cool daytime temperatures.
254 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The current upper-air pattern features a mid to upper-level low over the northern Rockies and an elongating ridge centered over the lower MS Valley.
1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 A cold front over Kansas and Iowa will move slowly to the southeast over the next couple days.
Cold front will move into northeast OK this evening, possibly reaching KBVO toward 04Z along with a chance of thunderstorms.
High pressure situated to the north of the peninsula continues to produce easterly winds.
Weak disturbances ejecting out of the base of the trough to the NE across MT will bring clouds and possibly some light snow showers to portions of SW MT and eastern portions of north-central MT today, while generally clear skies have developed over western portions of central and north- central MT.
241 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
1138 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Western CONUS upper trough is slowly pushing east today with light rain and snow showers across the area, even some freezing rain at times in the higher elevations. Fairly unusual setup for the time of year, with satellite and bufr progs confirming a lack of ice in the mid and upper levels given warm ll profiles, resulting in the the production of freezing rain when combined with unseasonably cool 2m temps. Further south, a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet will be possible. Although profiles support freezing rain (mainly in the Black Hills and portions of NE WY), any ice accretion will be highly limited given low expected QPF, warm surfaces, and temps right around freezing. 5 inch range, with the highest totals expected on ridge tops/buttes/hills and on grassy sfcâs.
A stubborn upper level low pressure system is currently parked over Custer and Lemhi counties, resulting in persistent snow showers across these areas. Going forward through the day, forecast guidance strongly implies that the upper level low will weaken and rapidly scamper eastward today, reaching eastern Montana by this evening. Speaking of cloud cover, an extensive cloud deck has formed over nearly all of Idaho, preventing many locations from falling below freezing this morning. This cloud cover has had implications on our temperatures, as they've largely remained above freezing tonight.
338 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The cold front and associated convection, being driven by a big pattern change across the country, continue to slow some. The cold front will be through the area by Thu morning.
210 AM MDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The low pressure system continues to push over the Rockies and into the northern plains, while broad high pressure persists over the southeastern CONUS. Expect another cool and dreary day today: as the low transitions northeastward through northern plains, precipitation and fog will continue. As high pressure moves into the region tonight, skies will clear, and temperatures will fall below freezing most places. Have issued a Freeze Watch for northeastern WY and western SD; south central SD should stay above freezing. Beneath weak ridging and southwest flow, warmer and drier conditions will end the workweek.
A cold front moving southward into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles this morning will track slowly south into the eastern and southern Panhandles later today. Highs today should rise into the upper 70s and 80s ahead of the cold front and provided some clearing occurs this afternoon allowing for afternoon heating.
This vertically stacked ridge will also keep things dry and temps very warm for this time of year.
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Very amplified pattern was currently over the CONUS with upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi valley, a deep trough covering much of the western U. Pretty decent moisture in the area between the ridge and trough with Pacific upper moisture and strong Gulf moisture in the lower levels.
A large broad area of high pressure remains anchored from the mid- Atlantic states down into Texas this morning. a weak cool front is expected to stall across northern Louisiana as an inverted trof moves across the gulf.
An upper ridge remains in place over the southeastern states through tonight. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will both suppress convective development and contribute to another hot day. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s except for mid 70s at the coast.
Increasing high pressure over the region through the rest of the week will lead to warming temperatures, reaching above normal beginning Thursday. Dry conditions will persist at least across the lower deserts resulting in continued clear to mostly clear skies each day.
645 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
Another hot and record setting day for many parts of Central Indiana with highs reaching the lower 90s one last day.
The pattern will continue through the morning hours as moisture pumps up from the southeast around dominant Gulf high pressure. /issued 407 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): KBRO radar shows isolated showers continuing to develop and move northwestward across the lower Texas Gulf waters and Deep South Texas early this morning. Overall, today will be very similar to yesterday with weak mid-level ridging overhead, slightly above average temperatures and a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With moderate Gulf swells and higher than normal astronomical tides expected, some coastal runup to the base of the dunes is expected during the high tide cycle again this evening.
An area of high pressure will extend from the surface to the upper levels across the southeast U. These swells in combination with the high tides will produce localized beach erosion and minor coastal flooding through midday.
Dry weather will close the week as high pres builds in response to another, and deeper upstream trough.
There will be few clouds around today and a 5-10 degree warm up will be in store, with temperatures in the mid 50's to the lower 60's. The flow will shift to the southwest tonight and Thursday as another trof moves into the eastern Pacific.
We still may maintain a good bit of cloud cover on Thursday, and much below normal temperatures will continue with highs only in the lower to mid 50s.
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The upper trough currently located across the northern Rockies will pivot east into the Northern Plains today. Large scale ascent is apparent across the region this morning ahead of the trough. Have issued a frost advisory for areas mainly along and west of Highway 183, and a freeze watch for northwest Nebraska where below freezing temperatures are forecast.
251 AM MST Wed Oct 2 2019 Increasing high pressure over the region through the rest of the week will lead to warming temperatures, reaching above normal beginning Thursday. Dry conditions will persist at least across the lower deserts resulting in continued clear to mostly clear skies each day.
631 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Wave of low pressure currently passing through eastern IA/northern IL. Deep mid-level closed low and trough will bring another round of showers across the area later this afternoon into tonight. Some showers still possible Thursday morning but should shove off to the northeast with some much-needed drying as high pressure builds in from the Plains. High pressure drifts overhead Thursday night for clearing and cold conditions.
Further aloft, deep layer easterly flow indicates that the area is located on the southern side of a mid and upper level ridge axis.
The forecast is on track with another record hot day expected across the entire region as a strong H5 ridge remains centered over the TN valley over very dry soil. Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 71 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 70 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 95 68 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 65 92 62 / 0 0 0 0.
Temperatures were running a touch cooler so adjusted the hourly temps based off observations.
Cold front moves through most terminals before the end of the forecast period however bulk of convection will be confined to nearer KBVO terminal. /Issued 421 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019/ Latest early morning surface analysis indicates that cold front extends from northwest Missouri through central Kansas and then into southeast Colorado. It could be quite chilly over northwest parts of our forecast area, with highs not climbing much from morning lows in the low to mid 60s.
937 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather today and Thursday.
The atmosphere will continue to warm these next few days as the deep trough, which has brought temperatures normal for November, finally shifts east. Weak high pressure will develop, but still with temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal.
Sfc analysis early this morning shows an area of high pressure centered across south central Canada. An elongated area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into the central Plains. An upper trough, that has be situated across the western CONUS for the last few days is progged to shift northeastward from the northern High Plains across the Dakotas and eventually into the western Great Lakes and southern Canada during the next 24 to 36 hours. Embedded s/w energy aloft along with upper jet support and a trough at the sfc will combine to allow for an expanding area of rain shower activity today. The remainder of the period will turn more quiet with decreasing clouds on Thursday and slightly warmer conditions by the afternoon.
The upper level trough moving through Utah this morning will be replaced by high pressure aloft later today.
With the exception of some early morning BR at a few terminals which will be dissipating shortly, VFR will prevail with strong and dry high pressure in place. A large broad area of high pressure remains anchored from the mid- Atlantic states down into Texas this morning. a weak cool front is expected to stall across northern Louisiana as an inverted trof moves across the gulf.
Ridging will remain across the area through the end of the week with moisture and rain chances gradually increasing.
421 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 Latest early morning surface analysis indicates that cold front extends from northwest Missouri through central Kansas and then into southeast Colorado. It could be quite chilly over northwest parts of our forecast area, with highs not climbing much from morning lows in the low to mid 60s.
The region remains under a large ridge of high pressure which covers most of the eastern U.
A trough of low pressure extending from the Northwest Caribbean Sea northward into our region, will move slowly westward and into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. High pressure over the Northeast United States will build southward down the eastern seaboard, while a trough of low pressure north of Hispaniola and the eastern portion of Cuba moves northwestward toward Southeast United States coast.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): KBRO radar shows isolated showers continuing to develop and move northwestward across the lower Texas Gulf waters and Deep South Texas early this morning. Overall, today will be very similar to yesterday with weak mid-level ridging overhead, slightly above average temperatures and a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With moderate Gulf swells and higher than normal astronomical tides expected, some coastal runup to the base of the dunes is expected during the high tide cycle again this evening.
Temperatures will warm a bit more today as the ridge transits the area. The next upstream trough will move through NorCal on Thursday leading to slight cooling, but shower chances are expected to remain to the north and east of the forecast area. Ridging finally builds in the wake of the trough at the end of the week and this weekend allowing temperatures to finally return to close to average for early October.
614 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 A narrow band of low to mid-level moisture continues to advect northeastward through northwest Missouri to eastern Iowa ahead of a southward propagating cold front. Dew points will rise into the lower 70s south of the front, while deep layer moisture contributions from the eastern Pacific will maintain PWAT values near 2 inches. Lapse rates will be hindered by cloud cover, but ample moisture in the lower levels will help to build moderate instability within a highly sheared environment given persistent strong southwest flow aloft.
This vertically stacked ridge will also keep things dry and temps very warm for this time of year. There is still a bit of moisture trapped under the ridge but it does not appear it will be enough to help spark any showers Today or Thursday.
512 AM MDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The low pressure system continues to push over the Rockies and into the northern plains, while broad high pressure persists over the southeastern CONUS. Expect another cool and dreary day today: as the low transitions northeastward through northern plains, precipitation and fog will continue. As high pressure moves into the region tonight, skies will clear, and temperatures will fall below freezing most places. Have issued a Freeze Watch for northeastern WY and western SD; south central SD should stay above freezing. Beneath weak ridging and southwest flow, warmer and drier conditions will end the workweek.
557 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The cold front and associated convection, being driven by a big pattern change across the country, continue to slow some. The cold front will be through the area by Thu morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the low to mid 80s over the SE to the mid 60s over the NW. Another dry day Fri with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. VFR conditions are expected until showers and storms move in with a cold front late tonight. KJLN has the best shot of the three TAF sites of seeing precip, and KBBG seeing the lowest potential.
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The current upper-air pattern features a mid to upper-level low over the northern Rockies and an elongating ridge centered over the lower MS Valley.
404 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The upper trough currently located across the northern Rockies will pivot east into the Northern Plains today. Large scale ascent is apparent across the region this morning ahead of the trough. Have issued a frost advisory for areas mainly along and west of Highway 183, and a freeze watch for northwest Nebraska where below freezing temperatures are forecast.
Showers will wind down Thursday morning as high pressure begins to build in from the west, brining a much drier airmass to southern Wisconsin. Will continue to evaluate the possible need for a Lake Shore Flood Advisory today into tonight, due to the higher lake levels along with persistent onshore winds today into tonight. High temps today and Thursday will be significantly cooler than the last couple days, though only a few degrees below seasonal normals.
1057 AM PDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure will be over the region today delivering dry weather and mix of sun and clouds.
The first trough brought localized 1-2 inches of snow across northwestern SD, but is now moving away. The second trough has sparked a few thunderstorms over eastern WY, and these may affect northeastern WY yet this afternoon. Otherwise, this trough should bring scattered showers across the area through early evening before being overtaken by strong downward motion on the backside. Model ensembles indicate ridging on Thursday with a return southeast surface flow.
1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019 The cold front and associated convection, being driven by a big pattern change across the country, continue to slow some. The cold front will be through the area by Thu morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the low to mid 80s over the SE to the mid 60s over the NW. Another dry day Fri with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
This front is expected to push back south and east through the area as a cold front. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier conditions are expected for Thursday. There is some potential for moisture/clouds to get trapped under the low level inversion.
203 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019 High pressure over the region will result in above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather today and Thursday.