Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is allowing the cooler marine air to spill through the pass and into the northwestern parts of our CWA. This should keep high temps in these parts cooler today. As this air moves southward through the San Joaquin Valley and is modified temperatures should be kept a few degrees cooler than would have otherwise been expected. With high pressure in place over the region should make for another beautiful day in central California.
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley will drift east today. This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across the region.
The upper ridge over the mid Atlantic states is driving drier air into the area even now with a boundary of clouds knocking on our back door over NE LA and SE AR. The water vapor shows a weak upper low wrapping up for a landing in the western Gulf and Texas coastal bend which will focus sea breeze activity basically along the I-10 corridor for a while absorbing the tropical connection that has come a gone over us a couple times already this summer.
330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 Fair and seasonably warm weather will prevail across the region into Sunday as high pressure dominates the sensible weather pattern. A strong mid/upper level ridge of high pres centered over VA will slowly break down as northern stream energy moves from the Great Lakes into the NE Conus. 75 inches across our region ahead of a surface cold front.
1200 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave troughs approaching the area. The latter trough will likely be the primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and evening. Last few scans of visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave trough and its sfc reflection. Relatively high mixing ratios and CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range along and southeast of this boundary will allow thunderstorm development mainly during the afternoon and will focus in the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA where instability is the highest. The theta-e boundary will pull northwestward, allowing moisture to be advected into the region through the afternoon along the western flank of a broad area of high pressure.
359 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will build into the Mid Atlantic in the first part of the week. A cold front will move through the area during the second half of the week. Temps only drop a few degrees from yesterday but the lower dews will make it feel like it cooled more than that. Slight chance of a shower or t-storm in west-central Virginia near the dying boundary later on but ridge aloft will work to suppress it. Sunday will feature easterly flow on the southwest flank of the high over northeastern New England and southeastern Canada with some potential for low clouds and fog. This should give way to sun as the ridge aloft will remain overhead.
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A weak cold front slowly drops south through the region today.
Upper trof moving east through the northern plains this morning with a few lingering showers in the southeast corner of the state. Dry and warmer weather expected today with the south to southwest downslope flow. Trof and lee low move into the Canadian prairies on Sunday with a cold front dropping into northern Montana.
101 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening. The warm front should clear Lake Erie early Sunday morning. As low pressure tracks across Ontario on Sunday it will drag a weak cold front across the region.
448 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Aviation section updated A front meandering across central Indiana will interact with upper waves on the periphery of an upper ridge to prompt thunderstorm chances for the next several days. With high pressure centered southeast of the area have the lowest pops going in the southeast but have likelies for parts of the day in the north and west closest to the best upper forcing. A series of upper waves moving through the periphery of an upper ridge will impact central Indiana through the short term, bringing chances for thunderstorms to the area. For temperatures generally leaned on warmer end of guidance envelope based on recent verification.
Drier and warmer still look on track for Saturday with winds increasing by afternoon. High pressure aloft is building over Central and Southwest Montana and dry and stable conditions will continue through Sunday. A low pressure trof to the west will approach the region tonight and winds aloft ahead of this system will strengthen during the night. Precipitation associated with this trof will remain well north of the Canadian border. A cold front associated with the low pressure trof will push across northern portions of the region Sunday and temperatures will drop back to near or slightly above seasonal normals across northern portions of the CWA. Southwest Montana will remain warmer with temperatures above seasonal normals.
Westerly flow increases today in response to a deepening trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Winds will be strongest across the higher elevations. The trough continues to deepen off the West coast on Sunday backing the flow aloft to the southwest.
Low and mid-level ridging will prevail through today, with dry air aloft resulting in unseasonably low PWAT values.
103 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave troughs approaching the area. The latter trough will likely be the primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and evening. Last few scans of visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave trough and its sfc reflection.
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A weak cold front slowly drops south through the region today.
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. High pressure firmly in control at the surface and aloft through the near term period.
450 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Moisture levels expected to be on the return as a trough of low pressure to the south of the Louisiana coast this morning moves slowly westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the aforementioned system south of the Louisiana coast moves to the west, high pressure will build in across the region and remain in place for most of the rest of the work week.
While there should be a break in the rain behind this initial wave, the GFS/NAM/GEM/EC all point toward some redevelopment in central IL during the day today along a trailing surface boundary, especially east of I-55 where the theta-e ridge axis will be focused. Those additional showers will also be fueled in part by a warm front lifting north through IL this afternoon. Less sunshine and more periods of rain north of I-70 should help to keep highs in the lower to mid 80s.
213 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure builds in through this morning and remains in place for the weekend.
440 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will build across the region Today then move to the east Sunday.
206 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will build into the region tonight. High pressure was located over western New York and is expected to slide east through today. High pressure will be over the region. The ridge of high pressure will start to move further south as some northern stream energy from Canada starts to work its way down. Included a chanced of showers and thunderstorms across the Adirondacks Sunday afternoon and across the remainder of the area in the evening with a cold front approaching the area. The cold front will continue to move south Sunday night.
The GFS/NAM gradually lift the favorable thermodynamics, tied with a sfc warm front, north during the day Sunday, favoring central MN/northern WI with any pcpn chances. GFS and ECMWF both point to broad ridging to start, giving way to northwest flow for a couple days, then a amplification of the upper level ridge over the plains for the end of the week. Less humid, cooler air should move in post this system for Wed/Thu. One batch of rain continues to overspread the area in advance of approaching low pressure.
649 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will build across the region Today then move to the east Sunday.
For today, models indicate that a weak 300mb jet streak will move across the region around the periphery of the upper level ridge. At the low and mid-levels, winds will be from the SE around the high located to the NE. 8 inches with the lower values across SW VA and higher values in SE TN. The higher values are near the 90th percentile for late August. Overall, expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms with best chances across the higher elevations.
324 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A weak ridge will be over Colorado today as a trough moves across the Desert Southwest. This will bring warmer and drier conditions to area. Airmass becomes slightly unstable over the higher terrain and south of Interstate 70. Moisture not that great with perceptible water values of a half inch over the higher terrain to three-quarters of an inch across the plains. Should be enough instability and moisture to trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain and south of I-70. A broad ridge of high pressure will stretch across much of the southern and central u.
The high resolution HRRR and the GFS are similar. Medium Weak mid level ridging sets up with all models showing a weak wave across nrn WI. Surface/850 ridging also noted so will go with quiet POPS. 925 temps around 20c though a smidge warmer in the western CWA.
425 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure builds across the tri-state area for this weekend.
248 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The broad sfc patterns shows central to eastern SD and west central MN stuck between high pressure over the northeastern U. and low pressure over Alberta. While the 500MB trough exits east, and more zonal flow with embedded waves will remain overhead.
Low level onshore flow into western Washington will bring much cooler air inland this weekend. The offshore upper level ridge has shifted west to near 160W with NW flow aloft across the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures today will be much cooler - as much as 15 to 20 degrees cooler in the interior.
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. No major alterations were needed for the dawn update as dry high pressure will build over the region for the near term period. With warm advection on the northern flank of strong SE CONUS ridge, expect high temperatures about 10 degrees above the averages.
344 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Wet over all but north-central Wisconsin today, then more sunshine, warmer, and rather humid on Sunday. The large-scale trough over the Northern Plains will quickly weaken as the bulk of the energy within it shifts off to the northeast. The zonal regime won't last long, as a sharp/fairly deep trough is expected to quickly develop just off the West Coast. But the amplitude/position of the downstream ridge and the next downstream trough remain rather uncertain, and that has considerable impact on the forecast for Wisconsin. Uncertainty increases thereafter as the position/amplitude of the eastern NOAM upper trough are unclear.
The models are in good agreement this morning with the general trough pattern. The exact position of the trough axis waffles a bit north-south from model to model and run to run of the models. The current low pressure trough hanging over the west will very slowly move south and east. As low pressure at the base of the trough centers over southern California today, moisture will continue to stream into southern Nevada, affecting areas south of highway 50 within the LKN CWFA. The trough will move well east of the state by Sunday, and dry conditions will prevail all around.
214 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. High pressure firmly in control at the surface and aloft through the near term period. The area remains under an upper level ridge on Sunday.
213 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to NY and PA tonight through Saturday. Quiet weather through this part of the forecast as high pressure will bring mainly clear skies, light winds and comfortable levels of humidity. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s with highs Saturday in the low to mid 80s. Thunderstorm chances will be increasing on Sunday as a weak short wave and associated cold front ride east along the northern rim of a strong upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic.
The system will drag a cold front into the region. Today Through Wednesday Night High pressure continues over the area this morning. and the ridge axis is now approaching the Mississippi River. A warm front moving through the state today will bring temperatures well above normal, with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. A weak cold front then moves through Wednesday mainly in the morning. Much cooler temperatures will be noticed behind the front Wednesday night.
/Issued 1130 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/ Forecast largely on track today with a welcomed ridge building in. /Issued 600 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/ Quiet weather in store today as a weak ridge of dry high pressure drifts over the area by days end. A weak cold front is forecast to move to the TN valley late Wednesday with increasing clouds expected for mostly the n and w cwa and small chances for late day showers over the far nw.
Low pressure over Kansas will pass over southeastern Iowa tonight and Wednesday morning. Its warm front lifts over the forecast area late tonight. Between the lingering clouds and warmer air moving in, raised low temps tonight to around 40. Rain forms again as the low's cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon. As colder air arrives, deformation axis/leading edge of trough will propagate an area of precipitation east-southeastward.
A cold front will move through near the end of this TAF package. Otherwise, another very pleasant day in store with plenty of sunshine although temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. With high pressure sliding off to the east today, southerly winds will increase throughout the day (turning breezy by this afternoon with winds in the 10-15 MPH range) ushering in low level moisture in advance of our next cold front which will swing through the area Wednesday.
A cold front will move across the area overnight entering parts of Northeast Texas after 25/06Z-25/08Z with winds veering to the West to Northwest at 6-12 knots from Northwest to Southeast during the early morning to mid day Wednesday for much of the region from KSHV to KLFK and out of North Central Louisiana approaching the Mississippi River in the middle to late afternoon.
Water vapor imagery shows upper low in NE/SD moving slowly eastward. A drier northerly flow will remain over our region through the next couple days, with gradually rising heights and a mean ridge along the Pacific coast.
118 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Mild high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the deep low pressure system lift northeast up the northern Mid Atlantic coast.
322 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Current surface analysis places low pushing through Kansas with ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Cooler air pulls in behind the system bringing temperatures slightly below average.
Isolated snow showers are possible over the higher terrain today. Cold temperatures aloft should be enough to support rising motion this afternoon, but moisture is very limited, so showers will likely be limited to parts of Mohave County and the higher mountains of Clark and Inyo Counties. Through Wednesday night The main upper low energy has shifted east of the region with drier air filtering in behind it.
These readings are nearly 20 degree above normal but a pattern change will occur overnight as a cold front moves through the region. A diffuse Pacific cold front is currently analyzed across west Texas and this will push southward through early Wednesday morning. Values will still remain above normal but it will feel cooler compared to today as high clouds continue to stream overhead.
All deterministic guidance as well as locally error corrected ensemble guidance suggests a good chance of lows dropping to, or slightly below freezing tonight.
352 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build into the area today and tonight, then prevail through Wednesday.
248 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Upper level trough and associated surface cold front is still forecast to bring a relatively short period of rain to central Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Winds will relax overnight, veering to the west as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move through terminals during the early to mid morning Wednesday, with breezy northerly flow increasing by the late morning into the early afternoon.
341 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A low pressure system passes by to the north allowing for a chance for light rain especially west of US-31 and north of US-6 later tonight into Wednesday. As a cold front moves through Wednesday night with more seasonably cool temperatures, any rain will be able to change to snow.
Not much change in the thinking this shift, and the forecast for today is largely just an update from the previous with the exception that temperatures will be warmer across the Red Hills portion of our forecast area. There is no indication of any arctic airmass coming this way with positively-tilted ridging into the Canadian Rockies leading to sustained downslope lower tropospheric momentum up and down the Rockies from Colorado to Alberta. Northwesterly winds will be breezy this afternoon into the overnight period behind a cold front.
The pressure gradient will diminish across the lower Texas coast tonight as a cold front moves across south central TX. Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into deep south TX in the wake of the cold front Wednesday. This will provide slightly cooler high temperatures Wed afternoon and cooler low temperatures Wed night as a result.
314 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 A maturing low pressure system over the plains will move into MO tonight and continue northeastward towards the Great Lakes on Wed. Rain showers are possible across northeastern MO and west central IL until the upper trough moves east of the region. The initially narrow warm sector does not lift completely through the CWA overnight, and the trailing cold front then quickly moves through the CWA on Wed morning.
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build into the area today and tonight, then prevail through Wednesday.
The main TAF issue will be with the higher wind speeds and gusts at the KABI terminal this afternoon. went a few degrees warmer toward the GFS MOS and increased wind speeds by 3 to 4 KTS in the afternoon. A cold front will be dropping in toward sunrise in the northern Big Country.
301 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to all sites this evening into the overnight.
As the LLJ max moves east, expect to see winds diminish before a cold front moves through around 07Z Wednesday. For Waco: Breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon diminishing to around 5 kts ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to move in around 07Z with NE winds below 10 kts. /ISSUED 352 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/ Another fast moving upper trough will swing through the Central Plains today resulting in a deepening surface cyclone over Kansas and increasing southwest winds across our region. By late tonight as the main upper trough continues to move east. a cold front will move through North Texas.
203 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 A warm front early this afternoon was located across Central Missouri roughly from Warsaw to Eminence. Cold front moves through the area during the overnight hours and this with increased cloud cover will drop temps down to more seasonable levels for Wednesday.
JKL Previous discussion issued 858AM: Slow-moving upper low over WY continues to bring some mostly light snow to our south this morning. Will make no changes to the highlights in place just yet, but snow along the Beartooth Foothills is decreasing. Otherwise, a chilly day with decreasing snow and highs in the lower-mid 20s today. As this low pushes into the Dakotas on Tuesday night widespread snowfall comes to an end.
916 AM PST Tue Jan 24 2017 Freezing fog will continue this morning and most guidance is suggesting it to clear out around noon. The low clouds/fog conditions will be monitored closely, so watch for updates on TAF's this morning. Weak high pressure will persist over the waters with diminishing seas into Wednesday morning.
429 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Temperatures are in the upper 70s across the Florida Keys, with dewpoints in the low 60s. KBYX shows chaff, but no showers and stratocumulus clouds are lingering near the relatively warmer waters of the loop current. MSLP analysis indicates a high pressure center near the southeastern Louisiana coastline and has shifted southeast toward the Florida Gulf Coast since this morning.
Another important factor for people responding to fires today will be a wind shift associated with a cold front. Shortly after 2 pm, a cold front was located over part of the Oklahoma Panhandle and just south of Buffalo, OK.
High pressure across south FL will shift eastward into the afternoon with low level southwesterly increasing just a bit into late afternoon. Next cold frontal boundary will dive southward across the peninsula on Thu with only small rain chances, then high pressure will build in behind it thru Sat night. Much drier/cooler air will filter down the peninsula, behind the latest cold front (Thu), for Fri-Sat before moisture moderates again on Sun.
With the center of the surface and low level cyclone well off to the north and northwest, wind speeds may have trouble increasing to Red Flag Warning criteria behind the dry line. As the LLJ max moves east, expect to see winds diminish before a cold front moves through around 07Z Wednesday. For Waco: Breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon diminishing to around 5 kts ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to move in around 07Z with NE winds below 10 kts. /ISSUED 352 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/ Another fast moving upper trough will swing through the Central Plains today resulting in a deepening surface cyclone over Kansas and increasing southwest winds across our region. By late tonight as the main upper trough continues to move east. a cold front will move through North Texas.
Temperatures will be much closer to normal on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region Tonight.
With much cooler air already keeping temps down this afternoon into the lower 40s, a bit of clearing tonight may allow temps, especially valley temps to fall into the lower 30s. The higher elevations will likely see higher wind gusts. Most of the period will be dominated by cold weather with a west to northwest cyclonic low level flow under a longwave eastern CONUS trough.
254 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure will remain well to our south through Wednesday while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
MSLP analysis indicates surface ridging from Middle Tennessee to the Gulf, and a large cyclone churning off the Jersey Shore. As this cyclone exits to the east, high pressure will continue shifting to the eastern gulf, weakening the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys.
1202 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low pressure off of New Jersey will move up the coast through the day. High pressure in the central plains will briefly ridge into the region on Tuesday.