Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some spots that have climbed into the upper 30s, quickly have dropped below freezing as the showers push through. Road surfaces are fairly warm, so other than maybe brief accumulation on roads during the heaviest snow showers, the surfaces should quickly melt and be just wet after the shower passes, so limited impacts thanks to the high April sun angle.
A cold front will move through the area tomorrow, hitting KABI by around 12Z, and our southern sites from late morning through early afternoon, turning winds to the north. A cold front will advance south across the Big Country late tonight, reaching KABI by 10Z. /issued 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Today will be breezy and warmer, with highs this afternoon in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. A cold front will advance south across the Big Country late tonight, and should reach a Sterling City-Coleman-Lake Brownwood line by 7 AM Friday.
122 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 High pressure will build in through Friday.
149 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Temperature near or below average and periodic rain and snow chances are expected through the weekend with crossing low pressure. High pressure will build into the region overnight downstream of Plains low pressure. Warm air advection will pre-condition the column ahead of the system's warm front, leading to possible onset of pre-frontal precipitation by morning. With temperature north of I-80 lingering in the low-mid 30s for much of the day, precipitation may remain snow longer in this area, and modest accumulation will be possible. Dry weather is then expected through Sat night amid building high pressure.
Increasing SW flow around the edge of the anti- cyclone is expected to limit the nocturnal inversion and keep temperatures warmer tonight across the Cumberland Plateau.
217 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Upper trough axis will finally be south of our region by evening and any lingering isolated snow showers should come to an end.
4" soil temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s though, and this is certainly helping limit accumulations, especially one pavement. Pavement temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing through the event, so that will certainly help.
The upper trough axis currently extends from northern Nevada through central Wyoming then across central North Dakota.
Cut-off upper low is dropping south just off the coast and will swing east through Socal by Friday. This will bring increased clouds, cooler temperatures from Friday into the weekend.
Quiet night so far this evening ahead of the upper low that will bring some rain chances to the area tomorrow. Holding off on a wind advisory for now, but wind speeds will approach the lower threshold during the day tomorrow and not quite reach it.
Satellite showing clear skies over the region this evening with upper ridge offshore and northerly flow.
A northeast wind surge boundary is pushing west of the Lower Keys at this time, but is not accompanied by any shower activity. Temperatures along the island chain range from the upper 70s in those parts of the Upper Keys that received rainfall earlier to the lower 80s elsewhere. Surface analysis shows the aforementioned dissipating front stretching from the western Atlantic across the Bahamas and South Florida into the southern Gulf of Mexico, with high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. Aloft, zonal flow prevails across the CONUS, with the suppressing ridge that has dominated our weather for the past several days displaced slightly southward into the western Caribbean Sea.
532 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Only updates were to increase sky coverage to mostly cloudy/cloudy across the north while blending the PoPs through 03z with the high resolution ARW West and NMM West Composite reflectivities and then limiting PoPs to an isolated (20 percent) mention. The short term forecast is highlighted by warm, breezy, and dry conditions on Friday before a cold front moves in from the northwest Friday night. North Dakota will be placed in the broad warm sector of this low with warm and dry southwest low level flow overtaking the region.
Colorado remains under the influence of upper trof with the band end across northern Utah and Wyoming. Expect 1-2 inches of snow per hour with this band through late afternoon and could see some snow accumulating on concrete surfaces, and especially bridges and overpasses. The main trof axis expected to move through much of the state by later tonight with increasing subsident and drying flow through Friday. With weak ridging aloft on Friday, will see warmer temperatures and plenty of sunshine by afternoon with readings climbing into the 40s over the plains. Cooler temperatures though in areas with the most snow cover. This will result in warmer overnight lows Friday night.
455 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Fair-weather cumulus clouds are present this afternoon across the region with areas of snowpack still in place, especially for some of the higher elevations areas of central Montana and the Cypress Hills of SW Saskatchewan. Thankfully, cold air is retreating away to the east and warmer air is making inroads each successive day in the forecast with only minor disturbances bringing a weak cool front or two.
/issued 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Currently across the Mid-South, we have weak high pressure in place centered over IN and another high centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level charts show zonal flow with a weak upper-level trough over the western Great Plains.
High pressure will give way to an upper trough Friday night.
This translates to around 60 in the valleys across the Northern Rockies, higher in the lower valleys of central Idaho.
651 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Cold front forecast to move through NE OK TAF sites between 09-11Z with scattered showers possible along/behind front. /Issued 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Breezy and mild conditions this afternoon across the area ahead of a cold front that will approach northeast Oklahoma late this evening.
904 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 A broken line of thunderstorms has developed this evening across northwest Oklahoma into southeast Kansas in the vicinity of an advancing cold front. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as we approach the overnight hours with the cold front moving into the area. The shower and isolated thunderstorms will be sustained through the night as isentropic lift increases behind the cold front.
/issued 445 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Short Term (Through Friday Night): A cold front pushing southward across the area today is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.
928 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Cold front will remain stalled across south Florida into tonight, with low level winds off the surface remaining elevated as they veer more easterly as high pressure builds toward the Mid- Atlantic coast. Temperatures will only continue to cool slightly due to clouds and onshore winds, with lows ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. MVFR cigs and tempo MVFR visibilities in passing light showers will largely persist from KVRB-KSUA overnight, but then may see some of this lower cloud cover build back north, potentially as far as KMCO by late tonight.
High pressure is built across eastern Kentucky this afternoon on the surface analysis charts. Friday a low pressure system will eject out of the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, as a northern stream positively tilted trough axis out of the northern Plains. This upper level system will help slowly push a cold front across eastern Kentucky Late Friday afternoon and night leading to a good shot of showers across eastern Kentucky.
Only updates were to increase sky coverage to mostly cloudy/cloudy across the north while blending the PoPs through 03z with the high resolution ARW West and NMM West Composite reflectivities and then limiting PoPs to an isolated (20 percent) mention. The short term forecast is highlighted by warm, breezy, and dry conditions on Friday before a cold front moves in from the northwest Friday night. North Dakota will be placed in the broad warm sector of this low with warm and dry southwest low level flow overtaking the region.
3) Freezing temperatures overnight. Otherwise, a strong cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to be the focus for shower/thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Concordia to Ellsworth to St.
643 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 (This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the cold front late this afternoon across northwest Oklahoma. In addition, the cold front will likely undercut any convection (resulting in a more anafrontal precipitation structure). The highest chance for rain will be near the Kansas/Oklahoma border across north central Oklahoma.
borsum Upper trough axis will finally be south of our region by evening and any lingering isolated snow showers should come to an end.
A strong cold front will result in a wind shift to the north and increasing and gusty winds at KHOB by 17/09z, KMAF, KINK by 17/12z and KFST by 17/15z. A cold front arriving in the nrn PB around 10Z/Fri will move to I-20 by 12Z and to the e slope of Davis-GDP Mtns around or just after 21Z. Return sly flow Sat AM will result in development of fairly widespread low clouds, there may be a few SHRA? Moisture will be shallow and mixes e thru the PM with gusty w winds and much warmer temps in the dry air and local high winds in the GDP Mtns Sat PM. Warm and dry wx continues thru Tue with increased w winds (especially in the mtns) Tue or Wed depending when the trof passes.
I have issued a SCA with the expectation that winds increase with the passage of upper trof and upstream obs already showing gusts in that range over land.
640 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough extending from the Great Basin to the East Coast. Within this trough were numerous smaller scale short wave troughs. The largest short wave trough in the larger feature has been producing sustained snow over Eastern Colorado and Western Nebraska through the day. Looking at satellite, there is an area of warmer cloud tops over Northwest Kansas where weak subsidence is occurring from 500mb. Fortunately temperatures have been warm enough to prevent freezing drizzle from occurring. There has been freezing fog/drizzle over western Kit Carson County through early afternoon where the warmer cloud tops have persisted. Friday large scale subsidence will move overhead as the long wave trough axis moves through. Weak WAA should keep lows warmer than tonight.
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Strong cold front will be moving through the South Plains area a bit after midnight tonight switching winds to the north. Breezy southerly surface winds for the remainder of this afternoon will persist through the evening hours out ahead of an advancing cold front, that is currently in the far southern portions of Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The cold air will remain in place tomorrow, with highs dropping into the upper 50s and low 60s, 20 to 25 degrees cooler than today.
640 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 A cold front will move through during the period.
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 The upper trough axis currently extends from northern Nevada through central Wyoming then across central North Dakota.
VFR and southerly to southeasterly flow will prevail through most of the overnight period, but poor flying conditions are expected for most of Friday ahead of a cold front for a majority of the TAF sites. A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday afternoon and there will be a potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms. This trend will continue into this evening before clouds begin to quickly increase across the area overnight as a cold front begins to approach the area. The aforementioned cold front will be the feature of our next round of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to the area Friday afternoon with some lingering showers Friday night.
The weak cold front has basically become indistinguishable this afternoon as high pressure builds southeast through the eastern corn belt and lower OH valley. The high will slide east into the central Appalachians tonight with a ridge axis southwest into the FL panhandle. Expecting lows in the lower to middle 40s. On Friday, low pressure will have moved into into central IL early in the day with a trailing cold front through AR into north TX. With adequate mixing, expect highs to easily reach the lower 70s in valleys and close to 75 in a few southwest areas, with upper 60s atop the highest elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. The cold front will enter southern middle TN and far northwest AL after 06Z with showers likely along and immediately behind the front.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s with light westerly winds.
Believe the wind and resulting mixing will keep temperatures from falling too far, so leaned toward the warmer guidance values.
257 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 With southerly return flow underway and increasing cloud cover, temperatures are much warmer tonight than the last few nights, in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Saturday will be dry but a touch cooler with high pressure overhead.
Bumped up POPs to PROB30 at KAEX late in the period as lift increase with the approach of the initial sfc trof. Generally looking at temperatures from 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night. High pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and will continue east to the Atlantic coast by this evening. Through tonight the ridge will continue to the mid-Atlantic Coast while the upper disturbance moves closer. Friday the onshore flow will pull in gulf moisture around the departing ridge and a weak area of low pressure that develops in the plains and moves toward the midwest.
/Issued 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ A broken line of thunderstorms has developed this evening across northwest Oklahoma into southeast Kansas in the vicinity of an advancing cold front. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as we approach the overnight hours with the cold front moving into the area. The shower and isolated thunderstorms will be sustained through the night as isentropic lift increases behind the cold front.
Upper support quite weak but later tonight, a weak trailing cold front will push by, as strong SFC/LL high pressure builds in behind. Weak moisture return will occur ahead of the cold front and while there will be some decent shear, there looks to be little instability to work with. SFC/LL high pressure and upper ridge do rule the first half of the week, keeping things dry Mon really until later Wed. Do not really see any freezing temps on the immediate horizon, as they will be very close to seasonal normals through the next bunch of days.
3) Freezing temperatures overnight. Otherwise, a strong cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to be the focus for shower/thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Concordia to Ellsworth to St. Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday and beyond, with 60s-70s likely.
1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Strong cold front will be through KLBB and KCDS by 06Z. Breezy southerly surface winds for the remainder of this afternoon will persist through the evening hours out ahead of an advancing cold front, that is currently in the far southern portions of Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The cold air will remain in place tomorrow, with highs dropping into the upper 50s and low 60s, 20 to 25 degrees cooler than today. Return flow will commence Friday night into Saturday as the cool surface ridging shifts eastward and troughing deepens in the lee of the southern Rockies. The upper low still drifting southward off the California Coast will open and race this way, via the Four Corners, on Saturday.
A cold front could then bring periods of rain and snow Friday night through Saturday.
Highs Saturday afternoon should clime into the lower 60s.
/issued 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Currently across the Mid-South, we have weak high pressure in place centered over IN and another high centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level charts show zonal flow with a weak upper-level trough over the western Great Plains. An associated weak cold front will stretch through the Mid-South and bring scattered showers across the region through Saturday morning. We'll see a short dry period on Saturday afternoon/evening before another upper-level trough deepens over eastern CONUS as it moves east-southeast.
350 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Dry weather continues, with warmer temperatures both today and tomorrow. This trough will slowly migrate southeast today, and height falls ahead of it together with low level theta_e advection and afternoon surface heating will lead to cloud development later today. On Saturday a cold front will pass through the region, but not before temperatures warm into the 60s for most locations.
239 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Cold front moved through the area overnight bringing gusty northerly winds to the area with rapidly falling temperatures.
/Issued 354 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Benign ridge dominated period continues thru Friday, then main focus is on a relatively weak upper wave and attendant cold front Friday night into Saturday. Highs Friday should moderate warmer into the mid 70s for most locations.
The FA will be ahead of the next weak cold front, so will be in warm advection all day. The previously mentioned weak cold front is expected to move into the northern FA after midnight tonight, then it will pass through the rest of the FA during the day Saturday. A cold front is slated to swing through on Sat, possibly bringing scattered light rain showers to the region, but not much change in temperature. A Canadian-based area of low pressure might then clip the Lake of the Woods area Sun night or early Mon with -RW/-SW, followed by something similar in store for Tue night.
This afternoon, a cold front will arrive, and shift winds to the northwest following its passage.
Winds will pick up out of the south to southwest at around 15 kts, with gusts in the low to mid 20 kt range as a cold front edges slowly south toward the Great Valley. The lower ceilings and light rain showers associated with the boundary should hold off until after 06z Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front will continue to push south across the area this morning with gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures today. Most of the area will drop into the 30s with parts of northern Oklahoma falling to just above the freezing mark by Saturday morning.
Look for high temperatures to be in the lower 50s, still a bit shy from where we should be in April. A dry cold front passes through the area on Saturday, but that shouldn't stop us from reaching mid 60s.
High pressure will continue to move east today allowing for return flow across our area, and gradual increasing clouds. Low pressure Friday morning should be just north of KSTL, with a cold front back into southwest MO. Saturday will be dry as high pressure builds back in. Temperatures early Saturday morning may be near freezing toward the KMVN area.
Temperatures should fall around or below freezing for most of the area, with the exception of east-central Kansas which will remain in the mid-30s. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s for most of the area, and even colder in far northeast Kansas where lingering snow cover will keep highs in the low 40s.
The h85 Thermal trough will transition to a thermal ridge (around +3 deg C) by 18Z with southwest winds on the increase 15 to 30kts. The cold front sweeps through Saturday night with cold air advection increasing.
1046 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough extending from the Great Basin to the East Coast. Within this trough were numerous smaller scale short wave troughs. The largest short wave trough in the larger feature has been producing sustained snow over Eastern Colorado and Western Nebraska through the day. Looking at satellite, there is an area of warmer cloud tops over Northwest Kansas where weak subsidence is occurring from 500mb. Fortunately temperatures have been warm enough to prevent freezing drizzle from occurring. There has been freezing fog/drizzle over western Kit Carson County through early afternoon where the warmer cloud tops have persisted. Friday large scale subsidence will move overhead as the long wave trough axis moves through. Weak WAA should keep lows warmer than tonight.
201 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Made a few minor adjustments to the low temperatures, based on the latest trends in observations. The eastern valleys are already in the lower to middle 30s, and given the mostly clear skies through the rest of the night, besides some passing higher clouds, have lowered some of the more sheltered locations another degree or so. High pressure is built across eastern Kentucky this afternoon on the surface analysis charts. Friday a low pressure system will eject out of the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, as a northern stream positively tilted trough axis out of the northern Plains. This upper level system will help slowly push a cold front across eastern Kentucky Late Friday afternoon and night leading to a good shot of showers across eastern Kentucky.
Models indicate another round of convection developing mainly over the Sierra Fri afternoon as the closed low off the SOCAL coast tracks into the LA area in the afternoon. To a much lesser extent there is a chance of some afternoon convection over the coastal range as a weak secondary low/trof develops over the Nrn zones. Satellite trends suggest the low circulation will mainly remain near/along the coast tonight and Fri. The low cloudiness will be masked by the high cloudiness associated with the offshore closed low making low cloud detection dependent on the METARS. JHM Cut-off upper low is dropping south just off the coast and will swing east through Socal by Friday. This will bring increased clouds, cooler temperatures from Friday into the weekend.
Gusty north winds during the predawn hours will decrease into the 10 to 15 mph range early today as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into western Kansas.
254 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 A strong cold front is beginning to make its way through the area early this morning and will continue to push southward through the day. Given the expected position and timing of the high pressure, areas immediately near the Kansas and Missouri borders will have the best chance to see a freeze.
1228 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 /06Z TAFS/ Cold front making progress across the Panhandle and Western Oklahoma early this morning, and will lean towards the faster NAM for the timing across West Central Texas terminals. At the same time, a cold front currently in southern Kansas will be moving south into our northern counties between 3 and 6 AM Friday morning.
Only updates were to increase sky coverage to mostly cloudy/cloudy across the north while blending the PoPs through 03z with the high resolution ARW West and NMM West Composite reflectivities and then limiting PoPs to an isolated (20 percent) mention. The short term forecast is highlighted by warm, breezy, and dry conditions on Friday before a cold front moves in from the northwest Friday night. North Dakota will be placed in the broad warm sector of this low with warm and dry southwest low level flow overtaking the region. A cold front arrives from the northwest Friday night with cooler temperatures expected on Saturday.
Weather should be quite nice today across the Southern Appalachian region, with a fair amount of sunshine in a regime complete with retreating high pressure and a dry lower level atmosphere. While there should be an increase in high clouds today, more than sufficient insolation and a healthy south to southwesterly breeze will result in a warmer day across the forecast area.