Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low level flow field just off the surface will remain essentially unchanged through the morning hours out of the SSW, so the probability of the low cloud expanding west from where the western edge of the cloud was as of 0830Z. The low stratus will slowly dissolve by midday, however the surface winds will remain out of the due south again today, which is not necessarily a warming wind this time of year. The expanding upper level ridge will favor continued warming of the lower troposphere across the High Plains with Saturday looking quite pleasant as nearly the entire region will likely see afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
This looks to be a dry trof with a surface cold front that extends down into the panhandle and may briefly touch the western most portions of the CWA, but is not expected to make it much farther than that.
A warming trend continues into Saturday with afternoon highs in the lower 60s.
Saturday will begin with subfreezing temp readings and possible frost, while the afternoon highs will try to reach the 60-degree mark.
Afternoon temps over there were quite a few degrees warmer, with mid to upper 60s noted. For the rest of the forecast period, it will be a glorious fall weekend with high pressure firmly in place and no rainfall expected. Highs in the lower 60 to lower 70s, with lower 40 to lower 50s for overnight temps.
331 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 (Issued 331 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: The tight pressure gradient between a low pressure trough skirting along the Canadian border and lingering high pressure over the Ohio River Valley region is causing gusty southerly winds across much of the Upper Midwest this afternoon. The weakening trough will be to our east by midday Saturday, so winds aloft will be diminishing through the day. Temperatures are in the lower 50s this afternoon, and they will only drop to the upper 30s tonight thanks to high clouds, warmer air aloft and a breeze.
There is an area of moderate winds along and south of the Cheyenne Ridge which will create near critical fire danger in northern Weld County and northeastern Logan County. High pressure ridge aloft is shifting east of Colorado early this morning as upper trof moves across the Northern Rockies today. This will result in an increasing westerly flow over Colorado this morning with weak subsidence from the northern trof during the day. Peak winds from HRRR showing 40-50kt gusts in the higher mountains and east slopes this morning before decreasing this afternoon. Readings on the plains will be in the lower 70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies after some early morning wave clouds. The weekend will feature dry and unseasonably warm weather conditions under a ridge of high pressure.
Otherwise, temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s.
/Issued 1244 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ /Through Saturday/ Really nice fall-like weather conditions will continue today and tomorrow as a high pressure system remains in control. Temperatures will warm up into the low 60s with a few spots reaching mid 60s. Winds will be light generally from the east/southeast through tomorrow as the high pressure sits overhead.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather.
As a result, ideal radiational cooling conditions will drop temperatures down into the mid 30s with a few spots getting close to freezing. The trough over the eastern CONUS, which has kept us quite cool over the last few days will shift eastward. This will allow for a broad ridging pattern to setup across the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 303 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain near our region through the weekend.
Upper-level confluence will maintain a 1030 high pressure system centered over the eastern Ohio Valley, with the northwestern periphery of the high extending into southern Michigan. A very brief/weak shower may be possible between 12-18Z Sat tied to the weak mid-level forcing, but given the dry antecedent conditions, this is not expected and no measurable precipitation is anticipated with the initial push of warmer air.
627 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Widespread VFR conditions are expected across all terminals as weak high pressure will be the dominant feature.
620 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Clear skies and cool temperatures will continue tonight, as a high pressure ridge continues to shift east of the region. One more cool night is expected as the high pressure ridge slowly moves further east of the area. By tomorrow, winds will become southwesterly and bring about warmer temperatures, reaching around 60.
540 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 A short wave trof currently centered through the northern Plains will move through the upper MS Valley tonight. I think this should be the last night that much of this region experiences low temps below freezing.
802 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 An upper level trough/low on the north-central Gulf coast this evening shifts across north FL by morning then eases northeastward off the eastern seaboard during Sat. A low pressure center just off the mouth of Tampa Bay this evening tracks northeastward. with a cold front trailing back to the southwest. Cooler air will work in with temperatures running a few degrees below seasonable. As the low pressure and front move away VFR CIGS and NSW move in from the west Sat. High pressure begins to build in during Sun.
856 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Upper low (North Dakota) and surface trof reflection pulling away from the region.
731 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend.
912 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 An upper level trough extending across the eastern Gulf of Mexico was advancing eastward. This low should head more to the northeast during the course of the weekend. While the aformentioned trough heads eastward, the influence of upper ridging situated over Mexico builds to the northeast. More of those clouds present will lead to warmer lows, and less chances of frost. The trough over the eastern CONUS, which has kept us quite cool over the last few days will shift eastward. This will allow for a broad ridging pattern to setup across the area.
943 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend. A large 1030mb high pressure is centered over Ohio, containing low humidity in its gentle anticyclonic flow.
Afternoon high temperatures, with ample sunshine, will be in the low to mid 50s. This should thus keep overnight lows tonight a bit warmer than the past few nights, with readings expected to be generally in the 30s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 60 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 58 34 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 58 35 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 57 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
These will bring intermittent light showers and cooler conditions to the region.
High pressure over the area will continue to keep the flying weather great. High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to ridge into SE TX tonight and Saturday.
Visible satellite imagery before sunset and infrared imagery thereafter have highlighted the low pressure associated with the approaching frontal boundary formed and is currently located quite a bit further south than was originally depicted in most numerical weather guidance. Given recent radar trends, have elected to lower rain chances for the rest of the overnight hours, although a broken line of showers is still expected to approach the Lower Keys, potentially briefly intensify, and push through the remainder of the island chain after midnight. From synopsis, low pressure centered off the southwestern coastline of Florida will intensify as it moves northeastward toward the western North Atlantic waters off the Southeast United States coast Saturday. A frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned area of low pressure will pass through the Florida Keys overnight and into the early morning hours Saturday.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday/ Another mostly clear and cool night is in store for North and Central Texas with a building ridge aloft and a slowly departing elongated ridge at the surface. The rest of the region will have slightly higher dew points and stronger wind (but still fairly light) therefore, lows should be slightly warmer (upper 30s to lower 40s) Saturday should be a beautiful day with building high pressure aloft, a gradual return of southerly low level flow, and full sun. Highs Saturday will range from the lower 60s in the northeast to the lower 70s across the west.
826 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Clear skies and cool temperatures will continue tonight, as a high pressure ridge continues to shift east of the region. Going forecast is on track this evening with overnight lows expected to dip down around the freezing mark. Ridge of high pressure parked along the Ohio River Valley will continue to provide a light S/SE wind overnight. One more cool night is expected as the high pressure ridge slowly moves further east of the area. By tomorrow, winds will become southwesterly and bring about warmer temperatures, reaching around 60.
/issued 700 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ For the 06/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions and clear skies will continue through the period as high pressure builds west across our airspace, keeping northeasterly surface winds light.
745 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Temperatures running a few degrees cooler than this time yesterday under clear skies with a slightly drier air-mass in place. There will likely be areas of frost with a light freezing possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where winds will likely remain light. Temperatures across Creek county and at BVO could also fall to around freezing before rebounding slightly by sunrise as winds begin to modestly increase.
300 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Yesterday's south winds pumped much warmer air into the region, and that has continued overnight. Despite mostly clear skies, our western 1/2 of the area has held in the lower 40s through 2 AM, while the east is in the mid 30s. Sunshine and 60s are on tap for today, with winds in the 10 to 15 mph range, gusting to the lower 20s. 2) Strong cold front arrives later in the week.
1016 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 A short wave trof currently centered through the northern Plains will move through the upper MS Valley tonight. I think this should be the last night that much of this region experiences low temps below freezing. The warm-up will really take shape on Sunday as the ridge aloft builds through the MS Valley attendant with deepening of the west coast/east PAC long wave trof, and a strong low level WAA regime becomes established.
209 AM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 The latest analysis has a flattened long-wave upper ridge across the central CONUS with an upper trough off the West Coast. In the low levels, a thermal ridge was over the CWA and will lead to highs today well above average. This will send a cold front south across the CWA.
254 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Upper level ridging will continue to build over the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley today bringing above normal temperatures to our region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 60 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 58 34 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 58 35 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 57 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
Temperatures early this morning are in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
As the cold front exits NE into Canada, southwesterly flow aloft builds and persists throughout the weekend, resulting in periods of snowfall over the Rocky Mountain Front and mountainous regions in far Southwest Montana.
127 AM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend. A large 1030mb high pressure is centered over Ohio, containing low humidity in its gentle anticyclonic flow. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge is forecast to build northeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Look for lows in the lower to mid 40s. On Sunday the upper level ridge axis begins to shift off to the east a bit, as a surface boundary slides into our western CWA by late afternoon.
Upper low (North Dakota) and surface trof reflection pulling away from the region.
The core of the ridge will shift slightly to the southeast through Saturday which will have the primary impact locally of enabling a more southerly flow and consequently warmer temperatures. the more expansive upper level ridging across the Plains will shift east towards the Ohio Valley. Periodic cirrus drifting over top of the upper ridge to our west may appear overhead at times Saturday afternoon and night otherwise skies will remain cloud free through the short term. Expect upper 20s and lower 30s tonight for another chilly start rising into the low to mid 30s Saturday night. The quiet stretch of weather currently ongoing will continue over the weekend into the first part of next work week, as high pressure dominates the area.
341 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the short term period.
Freezing temperatures and/or frost likely across the area early this morning. Discussion: Another chilly morning is expected today as we remain under troughing through much of the atmosphere as the main disturbance continues to track along northern FL towards the Atlantic Ocean. Later tonight into the morning once again the main story will be the potential for more near freezing temperatures across the area.
An upper trough over the southeast CONUS continues to move eastward towards the Atlantic. This feature will move off over the Atlantic on Sunday, with an upper ridge building into the region behind it. At the surface, a low pressure system will make its way over Florida then off over the Atlantic through Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build into the region from the west. North to northeast flow will usher in cooler and very dry air, with model PWATs between 0. With decreasing cloud cover and light winds, still expecting temperatures to drop a fair amount through the overnight hours into the lower 40s north of I-10 and into the lower to mid 40s south. Lows will likely drop into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees north of I-10 and into the lower to mid 40s south.
This looks to be a dry trof with a surface cold front that extends down into the panhandle and may briefly touch the western most portions of the CWA, but is not expected to make it much farther than that. Then ridging builds in behind the lifting trof on Saturday and Sunday putting us in southwest flow aloft by Sunday afternoon with the positively tilted ridge axis sitting over the Midwest. Temps will be warmer and pleasant this weekend with highs in the 70s tomorrow, and slightly cooler in the 60s to near 70 on Sunday.
Surface analysis has a couple of broad areas of high pressure centered over Arkansas and Pennsylvania. Both areas of high pressure won't move much today, so continue to expect light and variable winds across our region with clear skies. Upper level ridging will begin nudging in from the west, and in response to it, we will see high temperatures a tad bit warmer today compared to yesterday. Expect lows by tomorrow morning to be in the low 30s for many locations.
Weak ridging will be building aloft thru the weekend, while high pressure remains in control at the surface. Temps will drop below freezing again tonight in portions of the northern and western zones, notably in the valleys. Some of the more prone areas elsewhere could see freezing temperatures as well. Overall the forecast is looking rather mild and pleasant for the daylight hours this weekend, with plenty of sunshine on tap, and temperatures in the low to mid 60's tomorrow, and from the mid 60's to around 70 on Sunday.
244 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 07Z water vapor imagery shows upper ridging over the southwestern CONUS with broad troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the forecast area remains within southwesterly flow between high pressure well to the east and very weak troughing on the lee of the Rockies. The pressure gradient over our area doesn't look quite as strong today as yesterday, but as the upper ridge builds in, we'll still see enough mixing with increasing WAA to see a notable bump in temperatures compared to yesterday. On Sunday the pressure gradient tightens further, which should continue to usher in warmer air and bump temperatures up a few more degrees to bring highs into the 70s across most of the area.
An upper- level ridge builds for the remainder of the weekend, inducing low- level warm air advection as the main contributor of the weekend's sensible weather. TEMPS: broad upper level ridging keeps the promise of mild conditions into Wed before likely trough/storm system tracks through the end of the work week and seasonably colder temps return. glancing blow? Latest operational runs of the EC and GFS continue to point to a deepening/sharpening trough pushing across the plain states by mid week, developing a negative tilt as it lifts northeast across the great lakes. The gradient will continue to relax as the warm front approaches from the west and then passed through overnight. Until the front passes trough, expect the gusty winds to continue at KRST and the low level wind shear at KLSE.
The highest peaks could get upwards of 6 inches. Temperatures will not change much today with highs in the low to mid 60s. Sunday will be cooler with highs much closer to normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Showers will enter the region mainly over higher terrain this evening as a weak cold front crosses the area.
Today Through Sunday Night Another chilly night noted acrs the area, with high pressure still situated ovr AR.
402 AM EDT Sat Nov 6 2021 High pressure will dominate over the region for the duration of the weekend. Low pressure will strengthen off the Southeast coast passing east of the Outer Banks late in the weekend.
Highs will be a little warmer today but still well below average for early November.
Warm and quiet weather is on tap for the weekend as southerly surface flow persists and an upper level ridge passes through.
The center of the ridge axis is still off to our northeast so intermittent light winds will perturb optimal radiational cooling, resulting in variable morning low temperatures over short distances. Mid level ridging will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend with southeasterly winds becoming established Saturday afternoon. Continued southerly winds will mean a warmer night Saturday night with lows about 5-7 degrees warmer than tonight. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the Southern Plains, resulting in increased southerly winds and warmer temperatures across North Texas.
Bumped temperatures up a few degrees trending toward the 95percentile for highs tomorrow as a ridge moves into the area. Highs will be in the low 70s, which climatologically speaking, will be around 20 degrees or more above normal as normal highs are in the mid 50s. The upper level ridge will continue to sit across the area on Sunday, bringing another mild day with temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, however still around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
With this drying and clearing, and with the axis of high pressure more firmly in place across the region tonight, radiational cooling potential looks to be high tonight. Sensitive unprotected vegetation could be damaged by frost, especially where low temps drop closer to 32 degrees in cooler drainages and typically cooler locations.
By mid week, broad high pressure is set to build back in bringing drier and continued warmer than average temperatures. Broad troughing over the Pacific NW will result in enhanced upper level flow over the Sierra ridgetops today and tonight that will enhance high elevation winds. Downslope potential looks minimal per trends in hi-res models this morning but some elevated wind gusts will likely reach valley floors over the afternoon as daytime mixing and an enhanced pressure gradient in response of this troughing come together. Another breezy afternoon Sunday looks likely, to a lesser extent compared to Saturday, as the troughing shifts east and broadens further.
Southerly trajectories underneath this building upper level ridge will advect warmer temperatures in from the southern Plains. Look for sunny skies with highs in the lower 60s for most locations today.
/Issued 745 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ Temperatures running a few degrees cooler than this time yesterday under clear skies with a slightly drier air-mass in place. There will likely be areas of frost with a light freezing possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where winds will likely remain light. Temperatures across Creek county and at BVO could also fall to around freezing before rebounding slightly by sunrise as winds begin to modestly increase.
Other than the morning fog/frost, mostly sunny skies are expected today as a mid-level ridge and associated subsidence move in from the west. With the advancement of the low-level thermal ridge, H850 temperatures increase by roughly 5-10 degrees C.
252 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 With a few exceptions, 2 am temperatures across the forecast area are running about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night at this time. So, concerning our fog potential this morning, due to the warmer temps it appears that we will have a shorter window for reaching near-saturation around sunrise. An upper-level ridge will pass across the southern high plains today, with winds aloft shifting from NW to W and then to SW this evening as the ridge axis passes by. High temperatures today will climb into the mid 70s, and it should be a little warmer across the west. And it will be few degrees warmer tonight as well.
1143 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Clear skies and cool temperatures will continue tonight, as a high pressure ridge continues to shift east of the region. Going forecast is on track this evening with overnight lows expected to dip down around the freezing mark. Ridge of high pressure parked along the Ohio River Valley will continue to provide a light S/SE wind overnight. One more cool night is expected as the high pressure ridge slowly moves further east of the area. By tomorrow, winds will become southwesterly and bring about warmer temperatures, reaching around 60.
Warm air advection in the low-levels and weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching vort max and upper-level low will support the cloud development. The upper low over North Dakota this afternoon will push eastward tonight and Saturday and should bring a period of light rain showers to northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The upper low will scoot east of the Northland on Saturday with skies clearing during the day.
1130 PM MDT Fri Nov 5 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to build into New Mexico with VFR conditions and light to moderate breezes prevailing.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to ridge into SE TX tonight and Saturday. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the weekend and MinT values by Sunday morning will cool into the lower and middle 40's.
Temperatures across the advisory area are generally in the lower to mid 30s but will drop a few more degrees through sunrise. Therefore, patchy freezing fog will also be included in the NPW and weather grids. Highs should reach into the lower 60s for many areas. Upper ridging will continue to build in through the weekend with surface ridging continuing to stretch southwestward across the mid state.
317 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Winds become southerly today, bringing warmer air into the area. A cold front pushes through the area late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures into the area heading into the evening. Weak ridging, along with southerly surface flow, will be responsible for well above average temperatures today and into Sunday. Today's temperatures will be dependent upon cloud cover associated with a weak surface boundary/warm front that pushes northeastward through the afternoon. Heading into Sunday, a weak cold front slowly works southeastward into the area, but will have little influence over our temperatures, as clouds will once more put an upper limit on afternoon highs, which should top out in the 50s once more for most areas.