Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the trough sweeps through, impacts in our forecast area will be limited to a noticable, but not overly strong increase in surface winds. Afternoon wind gusts will generally be in the 25 to 30 mph range, with a few gusts to near 35 mph close the higher terrain of the Spring Mountains and parts of Lincoln county.
345 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure will slide east of the area today along with gusty south winds and warm temperatures. Warm conditions continue on Wednesday as a strong cold front approaching from the northwest fosters development of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may become strong to severe.
Primarily dry weather will prevail throughout the day, Wednesday, with afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid 80s.
Overnight lows tonight, though still running below normal, will be slightly warmer with only a few pockets of subfreezing temperatures in some valleys. A trough of low pressure is forecast to be over the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. The main forcing associated with this trough will remain to the north, over Wyoming and Montana, but a few showers may still be possible for northeastern Utah and far northwestern Colorado. The bigger story with this trough passage is the associated tightening of the pressure gradient leading to increasing surface winds and potential critical fire weather conditions.
113 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure builds back over the region tomorrow and Wednesday. Another cold front will push into the region late in the week and potentially stall across the area into the weekend. the very warm spell of wx ended from the N-E today as a backdoor cold front pushed through the local area. High pressure off New England will continue to build into the region Tuesday resulting in a consistent onshore flow early becoming southerly. This will allow warmer air to the south to lift north pushing highs Wednesday into the mid 80s with mid to upper 70s along the Eastern Shore. Flow becomes SW on Wednesday as ridging off the coast takes over. Guidance remains quite warm, highs will top out in the low to mid 90s.
120 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure is forecast to provide dry weather and warm temperatures through Tuesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday night and Wednesday along a cold front advancing from the west.
221 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Upper level ridge and strong high pressure that gave us above average temperatures and dry weather will start to break down today and move east.
With increased cloud cover and scattered showers/storms, highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler across this area, but still unseasonably warm across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL. GKS A cold front will sag southward into central MO and southern IL by late Wednesday with the best potential for convection on Wednesday south of the front across southeast MO and southwest IL.
A wave in NW flow aloft will move through NE Montana this morning with a cold front. High pressure tonight will bring a brief break in the weather. An upper low moves through Montana Wednesday and Wednesday Night which will bring a widespread rain with a chance of a thunderstorm mainly along and south of US 2.
Southern Indiana, which is farthest from upper ridging over the southeastern U. Then overnight an upper trough will approach from the northwest and will bring a renewed chance of showers and possibly a few rumbles of elevated thunder northwest of a Bowling Green-Louisville-Madison line. The upper level ridge that provided us with a stretch of dry and warm weather will continue to break down, giving way to a more active weather pattern for the end of the week.
1119 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure will provide a much drier day for most on Tuesday, but more rain and storms can be expected Wednesday. Dry weather should continue as the ridge slides east Tuesday night. Precip should end Wednesday night as the system exits and high pressure builds.
314 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Other than a few showers or thunderstorms east of I 79, high pressure will provide a dry weather today. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with a Wednesday cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area today as ridging builds across the region. A weak mid/upper level trough and instability should result in isolated to scattered showers/tstms E of I 79 today. These should end by mid to late afternoon as the wave exits, instability wanes, and the ridge builds further. Dry weather is expected most of tonight as the ridge moves east. Shower and thunderstorms chances should escalate with the approach and passage of the wave and cold front, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Precip should end Wednesday night as the wave/front exits and high pressure builds in.
Discussion: Deep meridional flow (sfc-500mb) will advect a very moist air mass into the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. By late this afternoon into this evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a cold front first entering central to far northeast Iowa. Uttech Wednesday, dry conditions are now expected as the cold front stalls out across NE MO into central IL and drier dew points in the upper 40s and 50s filter into the area on NW winds.
Tonight and Tuesday A warm front was lifting northward across the area this afternoon. Temperatures warmed into the in the lower to middle 70s north and in the upper 70s to middle 80s. It will be warm and humid with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
334 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the area through Wednesday.
Next few days don't look as cumbersome with regards to severe coverage, but the thermodynamic environment will still support strong to severe initiation along and east of the dryline as weak capping presence over the high terrain of the Davis Mtns and stronger forcing across the Caprock will still produce a chance of storms for later this afternoon, as well as Wednesday.
Will continue the Coastal Flood Statement for the lower Texas coast this morning and the Rip Current Statement for the lower Texas coast for today as long period swells across the western Gulf of Mexico and spring tides continue to produce minor tidal overflow near high tide early this morning and a high threat of rip currents today.
208 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure will remain across the Southeast through the mid-week, then shift further to the south. A broad area of low pressure will develop over the region late this week, followed by a cold front this weekend. Aloft, a strong ridge will remain positioned over the region. Tuesday and Wednesday: The center of a 590 DM ridge remain of the FL/GA line on Tuesday, then drifting to the south on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will remain across the Southeast on Tuesday, then a weak trough will gradually develop over the region on Wednesday. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid to upper 90s, with Wednesday a degree or two warmer than Tuesday.
Wednesday morning into early afternoon will be pleasant and dry for most of the area with weak ridging in the area, ahead of the next system progged to impact the region.
Given the timing of the mid-level trough passage during peak mixing hours, wind gusts this afternoon look to reach as high as 35 mph, which will create choppy lake conditions.
This is all tied into weak low pressure and a dryline farther southwest over the northwest oklahoma into the panhandles. Model consensus arrives at cool mid 50s in the western counties to low 60s in the lower plains.
507 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Other than a few showers or thunderstorms east of I 79, high pressure will provide a dry weather today. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with a Wednesday cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected for much of the area today as ridging builds across the region. A weak mid/upper level trough and instability should result in isolated to scattered showers/tstms E of I 79 today. These should end by mid to late afternoon as the wave exits, instability wanes, and the ridge builds further. Dry weather is expected most of tonight as the ridge moves east. Shower and thunderstorms chances should escalate with the approach and passage of the wave and cold front, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Precip should end Wednesday night as the wave/front exits and high pressure builds in.
514 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this morning, while an upper low is over southern Saskatchewan. The low is moving east and will get absorbed into the flow of a trough traversing east southeast over Hudson Bay. The broader effects of this will further flatten the southeast CONUS ridge during the short term period. This will permit a cold front to approach from the northwest.
With the state now situated on the Wrn periphery of a weakening upr lvl ridge, we wl once again see several upper shrtwvs affect the FA thru the PD.
Southwest to west-southwest flow sets up across the forecast are through the rest of the day with dry conditions expected following the passage of a cold front. A mid-level ridge moves over the forecast area on Wednesday morning with a trough beginning to move into the Central High Plains in the evening. A low pressure system over the Nebraska Panhandle with a dryline extending south into Eastern Colorado will be key to kicking off showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
809 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 The day is starting out rather similar to yesterday, albeit a little warmer. Additionally, dewpoints values were a bit on the high side for what we've actually been seeing, particularly in the afternoon hours. The ridge is creating large amounts of subsidence, and helping to keep dry air in place. High pressure remains off to our east. High pressure remains in control, with a light gradient overhead. Clockwise flow around the high leads to offshore flow late in the evening through the morning hours, but this becomes onshore during the day as the land heats faster than the water. Conditions remain hot and dry with high pressure in control.
510 AM MDT Tue May 25 2021 The next Pacific Northwest trough will move inland today across, which will allow southwest flow to become established. Tomorrow the trough moves over the Northern Rockies causing the associated jet to pass overhead. Went with the higher end of guidance for wind speeds based on the favorable pattern. A weak cold front will clip the northern portions of the forecast area and perhaps support some showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. This activity looks to focus along and north of the highway 40 corridor.
755 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over the forecast area. A fairly distinct pattern shift towards cooler and possibly unsettled weather over the weekend. Mid and upper level ridge over the region will shift offshore this evening. The highest chances for showers to be across the northern and central Midlands. One other oddity about the forecast is that guidance across the board is cooler with high temps than it was yesterday.
Precipitation chances slim today as overall ridging and height rises are expected to today ahead of our next system arriving late tonight into Wednesday as it currently enters the contiguous US off the coast of WA. Few degrees warmer today with upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the region today.
Weak subsident airmass works it way in across much of Colorado today with weak ridging aloft through this afternoon. With the ridging today, there will be warmer temperatures as 700mb temperatures rise to around +8C at Denver by later this afternoon.
The highest probabilities will be north of Interstate 90. From this afternoon into this evening, a cold front will move east through the forecast area. This is in good agreement with many of the Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) developing a scattered line of showers and storms along the cold front during this time period. As drier and cooler air advects into the region tonight, temperatures will fall into the 50s. Wednesday still looks to be a dry day across the area as ridging aloft and at the surface will be over the region. Water vapor satellite this morning already shows this system just off the Pacific Northwest Coast and this is expected to move across the Northern Rockies Wednesday while drawing up a short wave trough from the southwest.
Upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this morning, while an upper low is over southern Saskatchewan. The low is moving east and will get absorbed into the flow of a trough traversing east southeast over Hudson Bay. The broader effects of this will further flatten the southeast CONUS ridge during the short term period. This will permit a cold front to approach from the northwest.
A cold front will move through the DHT and GUY sites early this afternoon turning the winds to the north and northeast. /Issued 307 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021/ A cold front is expected to move south and then stall across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A cap will be in place today and the atmosphere may need the cold front to help break the cap. A tornado can not be ruled out, mainly along the cold front.
A weak ridge of high pressure will cross NM today and help keep the atmosphere dry and warm.
914 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Tennessee Valley today, promoting tranquil conditions once again. Strong subsidence from this ridge will limit cloud cover and result in another dry day. This trough will bring in chances for showers and storms into the forecast area on Wednesday. The precipitation will be moving into a drier atmosphere across the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday and daytime heating will be coming to an end with the trough moving into the area later in the evening. Highs on Wednesday will be a degree or two cooler than today with slightly lower upper heights and increased cloud cover.
09Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving through southern Canada leaving the CWA in southwesterly flow, with the next upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The next trough plays at least some role for the middle of the week.
447 AM MDT Tue May 25 2021 Water vapor shows upper low over southern SASK, with next upper low offshore the Pac NW and weak ridging in between. Upper low moves into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday, with deepening surface over eastern WY. Corridor of 1000-2000J/kg MLCAPE expected to develop northward into northeast WY and southwest SD, with warm front draped across the Black Hills eastward along I-90 (and good chance for low stratus north of the warm front).
This is all tied into weak low pressure and a dryline farther southwest over the northwest oklahoma into the panhandles. Model consensus arrives at cool mid 50s in the western counties to low 60s in the lower plains. Mid to late week a series of upper level troughs will cross the Central Plains as a west to southwest flow establishes itself across the western and central United States. With a surface boundary oscillating north and south across western Kansas during this time frame there will be ongoing chances for afternoon and overnight thunderstorms as each of these upper level troughs passes. Highs mid to late week will range from the low to mid 80s north of wherever this surface boundary will be located on that day to around 90 degrees south of this boundary.
Upper level ridging will be over the region today, and dry and warm conditions will prevail. Dewpoints will mix out into the mid 50s across the interior, so temperatures will feel a couple degrees cooler than the actual temperature. Hot and dry today with deep layer ridging remaining in place over the region. The low level ridge is sitting to our east over the Wrn Atlantic waters and the mid- and upper-level ridge axis is stretching across NE FL and SE GA to near the TN-NC border. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, with upper 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s across inland portions of the area, with lows in the upper 60s at the beaches.
We expect another half inch or so of moisture across much of the region with this low, and of course higher amounts in the mountains.
Upper level ridge and strong high pressure that gave us above average temperatures and dry weather will start to break down today and move east.
Expect mostly MVFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley through 15Z with a few showers across the lower portions of the RGV. VFR conditions will prevail after 15Z with isolated showers/thunderstorms across the area this afternoon as the seabreeze front develops along the lower Texas coast and moves inland. Will continue the Coastal Flood Statement for the lower Texas coast this morning and the Rip Current Statement for the lower Texas coast for today as long period swells across the western Gulf of Mexico and spring tides continue to produce minor tidal overflow near high tide early this morning and a high threat of rip currents today.
Wednesday will turn very warm, prior to a cold front crossing the region and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.
937 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Influence of the mid-level ridge directly overhead is very evident on the morning sounding from XMR with dry and stable air above the subsidence inversion at around 2500 ft AGL. Highs should reach the mid 80s along the coast and the lower 90s across the interior, possibly mid 90s in a couple of spots. While it will be quite warm, the silver lining is that dewpoints are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area this afternoon, keeping max heat indices in check and very close to the high temperatures.
High pressure continues to dominate the region, allowing large-scale subsidence and drier air to prevail.
An upper level low pressure system will move across the region today for scattered showers.
Upper level trough moving through the area today keeping showers in the forecast. A weak upper level ridge will pass through tonight into Wednesday morning.
Upper lows will continue to track across the Pacific Northwest with jet stream situated near the Oregon/California boarder.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/ Warm weather continues across the Mid-South as a stacked ridge remains in place. As for the rest of the day it will continue to remain quite warm, but our high pressure will begin to weaken across the region.
Chances for impacts from the latter will be highest at the NE OK terminals and will carry TEMPO groups at these sites during the highest confidence times, with PROB30s at the remaining ones.
309 AM MDT Tue May 25 2021 The next Pacific Northwest trough will move inland today across, which will allow southwest flow to become established. Tomorrow the trough moves over the Northern Rockies causing the associated jet to pass overhead. Went with the higher end of guidance for wind speeds based on the favorable pattern. A weak cold front will clip the northern portions of the forecast area and perhaps support some showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. This activity looks to focus along and north of the highway 40 corridor.
Late this afternoon through tonight: 18z surface analysis indicated a cold front moving through northeast NE with a pre-frontal trough/wind shift from around KBIE to near KTQE. Ahead of the pre-frontal trough, boundary-layer dewpoints are in the the mid to upper 60s. The high-level wind field does remain strong owing to the entrance region of an upper-level jet streak slowly lifting north through the mid MO Valley. Isolated to widely scattered storms may linger over portions of southeast NE and southwest IA through mid evening, ahead of the cold front moving southeast through the area.
A deep layer ridge of high pressure remains anchored from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the southeastern U. Our forecast area remains located between these features, with a slight increase in southwest flow aloft noted over our area ahead of the trough to our west. The dry airmass and continued subsidence on the western fringe of the ridge axis will promote continued dry conditions this afternoon.
126 PM MDT Tue May 25 2021 Strong low pressure that has brought the winds and some showers today is departing the area.
A cold front is pushing into the northwest and looks to get through GUY and DHT soon. /Issued 307 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021/ A cold front is expected to move south and then stall across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A cap will be in place today and the atmosphere may need the cold front to help break the cap. A tornado can not be ruled out, mainly along the cold front.
321 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Since yesterday, the upper-level ridge and subsequent high pressure feature have shifted slightly farther to the east. Temperatures remain warm during the afternoon hours, cooler overnight, and dry throughout the entire period. The ridge axis will continue to shift farther to the east through the end of the week. Otherwise, conditions remain fairly unchanged for the next couple days with high pressure remaining in control. Conditions remain hot and dry with high pressure in control.
Earlier this afternoon, 17z today, a surface boundary extended from an area of low pressure near Liberal to around Great Bend. 700mb temperatures this afternoon above this surface boundary ranged from 7 to 9C with cooler mid level temperatures being present over south central Kansas. Given the cooler temperatures, afternoon heating and forecast location of the surface boundary after 21z today there still appears to be a chance for some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms south southeast of Dodge City. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s but temperatures climbing to the lower 90s are not out of the question near and just west of the dryline. Wednesday night models appear to be in fairly good agreement with moisture and lift improving north of a warm front that will be located across north central Kansas.
It's possible for some low clouds/fog to linger across the northeast portion of the state early morning Wednesday, but confidence is on the lower side. A weak ridge of high pressure will cross NM today and help keep the atmosphere dry and warm.
A few stray showers and isolated thunderstorms work through the northeastern Nevada border as a trough exits the area. Gustier winds from today calm down into the overnight hours and a dry, warming trend takes over as a weak ridge builds in through the rest of the week.
This cold air mass will create a threat of near freezing temperatures, with a frost or even freeze potential. Ridging and a seasonably cool high pressure center will feature across western and central North Dakota Wednesday. Chances for showers will develop in the southwest ahead of the trough during the day Wednesday, though best chances arrive Wednesday night.
Upper level clouds currently on satellite over NV and UT associated with the 75kt jet rounding the base of the trough will move overhead tonight brining mostly cloudy skies to much of the area as lows dip down into the 40s.
Enough weakness remains along the western periphery of the mid level ridge to result in more diurnally enhanced scattered convection for Wednesday.
This cold air mass will create a threat of near freezing temperatures, with a frost or even freeze potential. Ridging and a seasonably cool high pressure center will feature across western and central North Dakota Wednesday.
245 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure continues to drive well above average temperatures across the forecast area through the end of the week. A cold front brings a chance of rain and a distinct pattern shift for the weekend. Mid and upper level ridge just east of the Midlands this afternoon will continue moving offshore through this evening. The highest chances for showers/tstms will be across the northern and central Midlands.