Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the high valleys, highs should be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, Teller County should see readings in the 50s to around 60. By late evening, as an upper trof moves toward CO, moisture and chances for precip will increase over the Sawatch and Mosquito mtns.
415 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 A cold front will continue to push southward through the region today.
A low pressure system will pass south of the area today, bringing chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
600 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will be building in today.
1015 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure centered over the Carolinas will drift eastward into the Atlantic this morning into early afternoon, bringing onshore flow to the area. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the coast. Then, later this evening, as the high pressure continues to moves eastward and winds shift southeasterly, shower chances will spread northward, mainly over the Atlantic waters and coastal communities. Onshore flow around 10-15 kts, due to high pressure moving offshore of the Carolina coast into this afternoon. As this high pressure continues to move eastward tonight and the pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough tightens, winds will increase and seas will build overnight, with winds veering southeast.
The higher terrain should receive a decent amount of snow today, so the snow advisories will remain. Temperatures today are expected to be around 15 degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
Upper level low that was stalled over southern California the past few days has moved into the Mojave Desert. A moist northwest flow continues over the area in the wake of the upper level low and as a result widespread low clouds cover the Bay Area this morning.
Frosty start to the morning, with light winds areawide and temperatures approaching freezing for many locations east of I-65 and a few spots west of I-65. High pressure bringing our bubble of light winds will head quickly off the east as our next intense system begins to take shape out to the west.
A weather system will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers today into early Sunday morning.
EPAC upper ridging extends inland over NorCal today as closed upper low digs farther to the SE.
High temperatures are expected this morning with temperatures slowly falling through the day into the lower 30s. Accumulations are expected to range from 10 to 20 inches in the mountains (greatest on north and east facing slopes) with foothill locations like Red Lodge and Story expected to see amounts up to or greater than a foot, with much of the lower elevations seeing anywhere from 3 to 6 inches when all is said and done.
550 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Aviation Section Updated A cold front will continue to push southward through the region today.
Farther north a strong cold front extended from southern Manitoba to northern MT. Temperature spread across the CWA will be considerable due to cold air advection quickly dropping out of the Dakotas with highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the low 70s south.
1024 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Currently - A decaying front stretches across the Bahamas westward across the Upper Keys and over the waters north of the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, making for another muggy morning.
536 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The northern stream will be collapsing southward and finally kick the closed low off the SoCal coast eastward today. The synoptic pattern by late Sunday will look more like January than Spring where all of NOAM outside of AK will be under a large trough. There will be a decent shot of snow as the Polar jet begins in plunge into the lower latitudes. There will be a thin line of moisture moving in with the jet which will be forced upward by a potent cold front dropping southward overnight. An unrelenting and anomalous ridge over the NE. The moisture source will be coming from the top of the ridge in AK so even though we will keep a threat of showers in the forecast through midweek the amounts should remain light.
853 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Between sunrise and a cloud shield coming in from the west, temps are already responding and have recovered to the mid 30s in the coldest areas, and the lower 40s farther west. Frosty start to the morning, with light winds areawide and temperatures approaching freezing for many locations east of I-65 and a few spots west of I-65. High pressure bringing our bubble of light winds will head quickly off the east as our next intense system begins to take shape out to the west.
705 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight.
Today will be briefly warmer ahead of a cold front that will produce breezy to windy conditions this afternoon and evening especially in Elko County.
406 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The northern stream will be collapsing southward and finally kick the closed low off the SoCal coast eastward today. The synoptic pattern by late Sunday will look more like January than Spring where all of NOAM outside of AK will be under a large trough. There will be a decent shot of snow as the Polar jet begins in plunge into the lower latitudes. There will be a thin line of moisture moving in with the jet which will be forced upward by a potent cold front dropping southward overnight. An unrelenting and anomalous ridge over the NE. The moisture source will be coming from the top of the ridge in AK so even though we will keep a threat of showers in the forecast through midweek the amounts should remain light.
908 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight.
Cold front approaching KBKE/KMYL this morning from the north, passing across the Treasure Valley this afternoon and the Magic Valley this evening.
Breezy and Another Cold Front. As another cold front, this one unusually strong for mid April, moves closer to West Central Texas, gusty winds, from the west, will develop Sunday. Then, the cold front may begin to move into the Big Country, by mid afternoon. Much Cooler Temperatures then a Warmup. Much cooler temperatures will dominate through mid week, before a warming trend begins.
The early day storms will continue eastward through the morning with conditions gradually destabilizing ahead of the strong cold front which will move into NE OK by early to mid Sunday afternoon.
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 A weak cold front continues to slowly move across our area this afternoon. Meanwhile, surface observations reveal temperatures in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s and winds light from the northeast and east.
247 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Only significant change to the previous forecast package this cycle was to lower expected snow total amounts through tomorrow along the Colorado border Cheyenne east into Nebraska a bit based on consensus/trends seen in the higher resolution models and to adjust the Winter Weather Advisory Cheyenne east to Sidney to end at noon Sunday versus 6 PM given lesser snow totals and less banded heavier precipitation rates during the day tomorrow. Otherwise, we still expect the stronger forcing in the area that will see the deep cold air faster across our northern zones behind the front tonight, with some 6 to 8 inches expected several areas in Converse and Niobrara counties with higher totals also stretching east along the Pine Ridge into the northern Nebraska Panhandle through tomorrow.
As these storms exit the area into Sunday, winds will increase significantly as the strong cold front enters northwestern Oklahoma.
Attention then turns to hazards associated with an advancing cold front set to move through the CWA tomorrow. 20Z water vapor shows a cut-off upper low spinning over the AZ/ Mexico border, and an upper trough digging into the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, the ridge that was positioned over eastern KS/western MO yesterday is now located over the Carolina coasts. With the aid of southerly flow, dewpoints have steadily increased today and are now in the low to mid 50s in eastern KS and a dryline is evident on surface maps extending from the low, southward into OK and TX. Attention then turns to the progression of a sharp cold front as it marches across the area tomorrow.
1244 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will build east across the state this afternoon bringing increasing sunshine but still a moderately gusty west to northwest breeze.
121 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Dry and warmer weather today most areas, with isolated showers still possible on the coastal mountain slopes and foothills.
High pressure will dominate for the beginning of the week. With the high to the east, a south to southeast flow will bring a warming trend to the area, helping to boost temps into the upper 80s to low 90s.
This will change as additional convection forms along/behind a slowly moving cold front and the approach of strong large scale ascent associated with the primary upper low ejecting into the Ozark Plateau.
Winter weather impacts continue across the Northern Rockies this afternoon as a Canadian cold front has worked its way across the Continental Divide into western Montana.
1145 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The northern stream will be collapsing southward and finally kick the closed low off the SoCal coast eastward today. The synoptic pattern by late Sunday will look more like January than Spring where all of NOAM outside of AK will be under a large trough. There will be a decent shot of snow as the Polar jet begins in plunge into the lower latitudes. There will be a thin line of moisture moving in with the jet which will be forced upward by a potent cold front dropping southward overnight. An unrelenting and anomalous ridge over the NE. The moisture source will be coming from the top of the ridge in AK so even though we will keep a threat of showers in the forecast through midweek the amounts should remain light.
High pressure is now centered to our east and that is allowing weak return flow to get underway. Overnight, a warm front will develop far to our north as the surface and low-level southerly flow quickly advects copious moisture into the mid state. That's because of a pronounced capping inversion that is going to be difficult to overcome until the cold front approaches during the evening. Even by 00Z, some remnants of the aforementioned cap are still evident, with the 0-3 km SRH topping 1,100 m2/s2 as the low-level jet further strengthens.
1200 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will build east across the state this afternoon bringing increasing sunshine but still a moderately gusty west to northwest breeze.
240 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 An upper level trough/low is centered over southern Arizona with southwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 80s. The upper trough moves over the region tonight into Sunday. This upper trough will be connected to a broader upper trough which will move over the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Strong winds at the base of the trough moving over the CWA will result in very windy conditions tonight through Sunday. These westerly winds will be associated with a Pacific front which will result in slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday. An even stronger cold front associated with the upper trough over the Northern Plains will move into the area Sunday night.
A strong upper level trough will approach the southern plains tonight and pass to the south on Sunday.
246 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Upper trough axis is currently centered from southeastern Alberta into western Montana and northern Idaho. The surface cold front has pushed south of the CWA into Nebraska.
There is still some model disagreement regarding dry air entrainment with the high across the north. The upper trough continues to dig in through Sunday night keeping temperatures chilly.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper teens across the west and the lower 20s elsewhere with Sunday highs forecast only to reach into the low to mid 30s.
A northward advancing warm front will bring showers into KCHA by around 12z or so, with -SHRA expected at KTYS and KTRI by 15z and 17z-18z respectively. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 70 58 67 42 / 40 90 100 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 67 57 67 41 / 10 90 100 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 67 58 67 40 / 20 90 100 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 68 54 69 38 / 0 90 100 30 10 TN.
330 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will move offshore over the weekend while a cold front approaches from the west.
Between sunrise and a cloud shield coming in from the west, temps are already responding and have recovered to the mid 30s in the coldest areas, and the lower 40s farther west. Frosty start to the morning, with light winds areawide and temperatures approaching freezing for many locations east of I-65 and a few spots west of I-65. High pressure bringing our bubble of light winds will head quickly off the east as our next intense system begins to take shape out to the west.
804 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Dry and warmer weather will prevail today in the wake of the prolonged storm system earlier this week.
358 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The focus this afternoon continues to be the strong cold front across northern Nebraska which is expected to shift south overnight as an upper level disturbance crosses the northern Rockies. Later in the evening the focus will shift north by around midnight as the aforementioned cold front reaches the northern fringes of the local area. with the high wind warning expected to be no longer needed by 10 PM or earlier as winds diminish during the evening hours. Behind the cold front Easter day, expect cool northwesterly flow to overtake the region with a couple of weak embedded disturbances bringing small chances for precipitation mainly mid to late week. as a strong cold front approaches the local area.
341 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will build east across the state this afternoon bringing abundant sunshine but still a moderately gusty west to northwest breeze.
A change in the weather pattern may occur midweek, leading to mountain showers and cooler daytime temperatures. EPAC upper ridging extends inland over NorCal today as closed upper low digs farther to the SE. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows some CU developing over the ridges and down into the foothills and portions of the valley.
513 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Upper trough axis is currently centered from southeastern Alberta into western Montana and northern Idaho. The surface cold front has pushed south of the CWA into Nebraska.
Temperatures should remain near 80 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure over the Southeastern States will drop into the western North Atlantic tonight. Strong low pressure will deepen rapidly on Sunday as it moves northeast through the Mid Mississippi Valley, bringing fresh to strong southeast and south breezes across the Keys coastal waters.
Attention then turns to the north where a strong cold front was located across central Wyoming and northern Nebraska. This cold front is forecast to dive southward and move through the OK and TX Panhandles Sunday morning with strong north winds and falling temperatures in its wake. In addition, the combination of strong cold air advection and a post surface cold frontal steep pressure gradient will likely lead to surface winds reaching into Wind Advisory criteria across most of the area on Sunday, possibly even High Wind Warning criteria in some locations.
744 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 High pressure will build east across the state this afternoon bringing abundant sunshine but still a moderately gusty west to northwest breeze.
An upper low over the southwestern states is beginning to open and eject eastward this evening. Ahead of this system a warm front will lift northward across the area Sunday morning. In addition to the strong thermodynamics, kinematic profiles will also rapidly increase through the day as the upper trough takes on a negative tilt with a strong upper level jet streak nosing into the region along with a low level jet that increasing to 50 to 60 knots during the afternoon and evening hours.
A few afternoon mountain showers possible on Sunday, with otherwise dry and cooler conditions.
Roads on webcams remain wet but may become icy tonight, especially on bridges and overpasses. Overnight lows will fall into the upper teens across the west and the lower 20s elsewhere with Sunday highs forecast only to reach into the low to mid 30s.
A strong cold front will move thru the E OK sites toward the end of the forecast late tomorrow afternoon, bringing some storm potential as well as an abrupt wind shift to the northwest with gusts 30 kts or greater. The early day storms will continue eastward through the morning with conditions gradually destabilizing ahead of the strong cold front which will move into NE OK by early to mid Sunday afternoon.
As high pressure pushes into the Atlantic winds will veer southeast and quickly increase Sunday morning. A warm front will lift north over the region during the day, bringing showers along the coast and local Atlantic waters in the morning. Much warmer temperatures return as afternoon highs reach the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to low 90s inland.
A closed upper low currently near southern AZ will move ENE and phase with an anomalously strong upper trough dropping southeast into the north central CONUS. The system will be convective, with severe weather expected to develop well to our southwest in the lower Mississippi Valley. Should a narrow window of surface based instability be able to develop ahead of the system's cold front in the JKL forecast area, severe wind gusts will be a threat on Sunday night.
The focus this afternoon continues to be the strong cold front across northern Nebraska which is expected to shift south overnight as an upper level disturbance crosses the northern Rockies. Later in the evening the focus will shift north by around midnight as the aforementioned cold front reaches the northern fringes of the local area. with the high wind warning expected to be no longer needed by 10 PM or earlier as winds diminish during the evening hours. Behind the cold front Easter day, expect cool northwesterly flow to overtake the region with a couple of weak embedded disturbances bringing small chances for precipitation mainly mid to late week. A strong cold front moves through tomorrow morning which will bring very strong winds and snow/BLSN. Expect IFR conditions tomorrow morning until late afternoon as the low moves off.
Tonight, even though the upper-level trough axis passes overhead, the cold air mass remains well in place and fully in control over our region.
742 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020 A warm front will lift northward from the Gulf of Mexico tonight spreading rain across the forecast area Sunday morning and afternoon.
A low pressure system will pass south of the area today, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Southerly low level flow will increase to 35-45 knots tonight as low pressure deepens over the southern high plains ahead of the upper trough kicking out across the southern Rockies.
A cold front will move through the area Sunday evening, resulting in north winds of 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts. (Sunday) As another cold front, this one unusually strong for mid April, moves closer to West Central Texas, gusty winds, from the west, will develop Sunday. Then, the cold front may begin to move into the Big Country, by mid afternoon. (Sunday night through Saturday) Much cooler temperatures will dominate through mid week, before a warming trend begins.
The focus this afternoon continues to be the strong cold front across northern Nebraska which is expected to shift south overnight as an upper level disturbance crosses the northern Rockies. Later in the evening the focus will shift north by around midnight as the aforementioned cold front reaches the northern fringes of the local area. with the high wind warning expected to be no longer needed by 10 PM or earlier as winds diminish during the evening hours. Behind the cold front Easter day, expect cool northwesterly flow to overtake the region with a couple of weak embedded disturbances bringing small chances for precipitation mainly mid to late week. A strong low pressure system will impact the TAF sites today. Conditions will improve late this afternoon as the low pressure moves out of the area.
A cold front will cross the region through early Sunday. The surface cold front extends across central Utah, with a secondary surge of cold air currently pushing into far northern Utah.
These showers and storms will continue to spread northeast into the area and become more widespread as the upper-level trough approaches the area today. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning, but the better chances will be this afternoon as instability increases and the upper trough approaches. Even if surface heating is somewhat tempered by clouds and early showers today, instability is still expected to increase as cooler mid-level air moves in with the trough increasing lapse rates. Meanwhile a cold front will move into the area from the northwest today with strong northwest winds expected behind the front.
Meanwhile, a strengthening boundary will slowly into central Iowa overnight as low pressure deepens across the Plains. The gradient of snow will be tight on the south side of the band where warmer air is expected to keep precipitation mainly liquid prior to the heavier QPF ending towards evening.
Otherwise, cold and unsettled flow will persist through the week, with warmer weather arriving this weekend as a western CONUS ridge shifts east.
A change in the weather pattern may occur midweek, leading to mountain showers and cooler daytime temperatures. JHM EPAC upper ridging extends inland over NorCal today as closed upper low digs farther to the SE. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows some CU developing over the ridges and down into the foothills and portions of the valley.
As a cold front begins to move across the west and north, late in the period, winds will transition to W/NW and will increase substantially.
The cyclone will continue to rapidly deepen as the previously mentioned upper features come further into phase this evening and overnight. Shower and storm coverage will then pick back up in the late afternoon and evening as the low and front swing through the region. However, guidance continues to show modest elevated and even mixed layer instability pooling along the cold front in central and northern MO tomorrow.
1054 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Upper trough axis is currently centered from southeastern Alberta into western Montana and northern Idaho. The surface cold front has pushed south of the CWA into Nebraska.
315 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 (Today and Tonight) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours, with most of the activity moving east of the area by daybreak as a Pacific cold front moves across the region. A strong cold front will move into the Big Country by mid to late afternoon, eventually making it to Interstate 10 by mid evening.
After thunderstorms finally move out of the area this afternoon and evening will be clearing and cooler across the region for the next couple of days.
A low pressure system has passed south of the area today, with only isolated light showers continuing this evening.
A strong cold front will sweep across the area late Sunday afternoon, with strong and gusty north to northwest winds in its wake, along with a return to MVFR ceilings.
A strong cold front will sweep through the area this morning shifting winds to the north with increasing cloudiness.
Temperatures a bit cooler than on Saturday with highs in the 30s.