Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
912 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WILL END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TODAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON S OF THE PA BORDER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ESP N OF I 70 WITH DRY ADVECTION AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY IN REACTION TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US.
700 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND MONDAY.
404 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND INTO THE GULF WHERE IT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IAMGERY ALSO SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO WHICH SHOULD REACH S TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO FORCING FROM JET STREAK OVER THE S ROCKIES MOVING INTO TEXAS AS MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
939 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
542 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
AND MONDAY QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO PCPN CHANCE FOR MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. THE PROGS INITIALIZED THIS WELL AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER WITH STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO SRN CA. STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA WILL EJECT NEWD INTO CO LATE TONIGHT WITH MAIN UPPER LOW REDEVELOPING OVER WY. UPPER LOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER NEB AS STRONG SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS NEWD EJECTION.
With temperatures hovering near or slightly below freezing in that area, have mentioned the potential for some very light freezing rain across portions of Knox, Fulton, and Schuyler counties through 7-8am. with afternoon highs only reaching the lower to middle 40s. As a closed upper low currently over the Great Basin begins to pivot eastward, moisture poised just upstream across the Southern Plains will begin to move back northward into the area tonight. Best rain chances develop on Monday, as profile saturates and stronger forcing associated with approaching upper low arrives.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHED SW TO NE. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. COOLER.
700 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHED SW TO NE. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. COOLER.
313 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2015 A WEAK HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS AND DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
The highest accumulations will continue to be focused across far southeast Oklahoma and parts of west central Arkansas, nearest the mid level warm front, with lighter and more spotty rain farther north. Temperatures are above freezing across the entire forecast area this morning, and this should not change, meaning that no wintry precipitation is expected. Rainfall will taper from southwest to northeast tonight and into Monday as the upper low shifts into the Central Plains and the attendant dry slot moves eastward into the region.
/issued 348 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ Strong upper low over UT this morning will move onto the Great Plains Monday.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE LOW STRATUS HAS EXPANDED TO THE WEST AND NORTH INTO BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. BUT GENERALLY THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS.
521 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 151 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ SYNOPTIC PICTURE INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE IMPLANTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CUTOFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU MIDDLE TN AND S ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWALTER INDICES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR 0 TO -2 WITHIN THE 8H THETA-E RIDGE, SO WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. AS THIS OCCURS, THE COLD FRONT MAY SNEAK JUST INTO FAR NW AL THIS AFTERNOON, THEN STALL OUT ACROSS TN THRU NW AL INTO NRN MS.
/ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 60S. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STRONG NNW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. BRINGING A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR. SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CREATE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OVERTOP A 700 MB FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OPENS AND MERGES WITH A BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S AROUND LAREDO. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO CAA AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
Temps will be much cooler than yesterday with west to northwest CAA flow. However, am concerned that there could be enough breaks in the clouds between the two rounds of pcpn to allow temps to get warmer than the mid to upper 50s in the forecast across the central and south parts of the CWA. Northwest half of the forecast area expected to fall to near freezing tonight, with mid 30s elsewhere. Winds expected to rapidly diminish Saturday night as high pressure drifts through the mid-Mississippi Valley. With skies mostly clear by this point, lows likely to fall below freezing over the entire forecast area.
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND IT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHES INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND SHIFTS WINDS MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 419 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
1044 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WITH TROF AXIS LINGERING TO THE WEST TODAY.
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO OVER THE ISLAND OF CUBA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH A DEEP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION. WITH AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA.
AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AMID ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING ALOFT/APPROACHING UPPER TROF OVER WEST TX. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES.
HAVE LOWERED RH VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
824 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ WITH TROF AXIS LINGERING TO THE WEST TODAY.
655 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 TODAY-TONIGHT: RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY. TEMPERATURES A BIGGER CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS VERY SHARP RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH RELATIVELY EARLY. WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. WEEKEND: INCREASING RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER EACH DAY.
856 AM MST FRI APR 1 2016 A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW THAT SET-UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL COME TO END THIS WEEKEND. TRAILING TROUGH ENERGY HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH PROMINENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMO COLUMN ON 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY EXITING THE CWA BY MID MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK A BIT EARLY TODAY BUT RETURN LATER TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH AIDING IN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE NAM SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STALL IN NORTHERN GA/CENTRAL AL AND LOOKS TO ALSO HELP PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SHOT ALOFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO ONLY HIT THE LOW 60S THANKS TO THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AND DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
904 AM MDT FRI APR 1 2016 NORTH FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST. GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER BUT THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TAPPED INTO A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPISH AND MORE SUNSHINE HELPING PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INCREASE OF COOLER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SAT.
602 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE VERY NEAR-TERM FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SOON FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH OF ST. INCLUDING THE PASSAGE OF THREE DISTINCT COLD FRONTS ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IN BETWEEN. THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
Secondary push seen in WV imagery to the northwest of this trof, forecast to move into our area this afternoon. For today, expecting highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as weak cold advection moves through. Highs still forecast to reach into the low 50s north with middle 50s south. Overnight lows will be impacted by clear skies and cooler airmass, but countered by a potential light west wind. Current forecast is for lows near freezing, but with dewpoints in the 20s think a farther drop is possible. Expect a warming trend this weekend as the mid-level trough exits further to the east. With northwesterly flow aloft still prevailing into Saturday, it will keep temperatures seasonal in the low/mid 60s despite the abundant sunshine.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAD REACHED FAR NW WI WITH A SE MOVEMENT TOWARD NE WI. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS EAST COLORADO. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE HOLD TOMORROW AS THE WESTERN UNITED STATE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
1010 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING IT'S WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CREEP INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON /BEFORE THE FROPA/. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 48 63 39 / 20 50 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 46 60 35 / 30 30 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 47 61 35 / 20 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 44 58 31 / 50 20 10 10.
648 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE STATE. MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TODAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN U. SATURDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER INTO THE ROCKIES.
Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds.
617 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 /12Z TAFS/ A cold front is moving south through the forecast area.
A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s.
IS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
936 AM PDT FRI APR 1 2016 A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE CONTINUED WARMING.
AND KEEPING TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL. /ISSUED 648 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE STATE. MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TODAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN U. SATURDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH SOME LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND IS FREE OF SNOW NEAR CHADRON AND SIDNEY NEBRASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY TO DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30's. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Lows will be in the low-mid 30's with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois.
A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST HAS BUMPED INLAND A BIT THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE.
AS EXPECTED, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
FEW IFR/MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHRA/TSRA SOMEWHAT SATURATES THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS. THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THAT CONVERGENCE ZONE. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
The flow aloft will transition from southwest to northwest by the end of the day Saturday, as a pair of upper-level disturbances pass by to the north and northeast of our region and carve out a large scale trough over the Great Lakes.
MODEST FGEN RESPONSE XPCD MID MORNING THROUGH ERLY AFTN INVOF OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR SHLD FORCE SCT SHRA DVLPMNT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABV FREEZING AT LEAST TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DRY AND COOL AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00 UTC THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS NEARING OR EVEN REACHING 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE AFTN SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
WITH COOLER AIR STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS GIVING THE FINAL PUSH TONIGHT TO SEND THE FRONT SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEX TONIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY GETS A STRONGER PUSH BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS. MORE INLINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. AS COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA.
A brief stint in the high end IFR range is possible.
The latest hi- res model guidance seems to have a good handle on the areas with the highest chances for rain, so nudged PoPs towards latest ECAM guidance.
PALMER RIDGE. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WEST OF COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE 0-1 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS.
UPDATE: Going forecasts looks good for tonight with just some high clouds over the northwestern half of the CWA rotating around an upper low over the eastern half of Nebraska. A complex vort max over the central plains is still forecast to retrograde with time, moving southwestward along the eastern edge of an upper ridge axis.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT BE COOLER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND ARROWHEAD.
WEAK TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN CAMPED OUT TO OUR NW. KCSV WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FIRST AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SEEN RECENTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN WITH THE LOWER CIGS.
WOBBLING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IS NOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADS NORTH.
638 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THIS SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
647 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 108 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ THE 18Z IR/VISIBLE AND 500 MILLIBAR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TURBULENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLOWLY SLIDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY AND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEB. SOME PRECIP STILL OCCURRING NE OF THE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. AND WITH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE HIGH.