Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid level heights begin to rise tomorrow and through the rest of the week along with high pressure remaining nearby at surface keeping drier air in place through much of the work week. Many locations will see highs in the 90s for much of the week as the upper ridge doesn't budge. The upper ridge may shift far enough south and west to allow for a weak boundary to approach the area this weekend and bring potential for a few isolated showers at best.
730 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Low pressure was over the Great Lakes with a cold front extending from the low into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Then high pressure, dry weather and a less humid air mass cover our area for the rest of the week. The lower clouds will continue to erode and more showers will develop into the late afternoon. Synoptic scale models were in good agreement with the timing and location of the low and with indications of healthy upper diffluence over the area on Monday afternoon. The low clouds will dissipate in the morning but timing and the amount of sun for the rest of Monday, and before any rain will impact the maximum temperatures.
The upper level ridge will migrate east of our area Monday night, allowing an upper level trough to approach from the coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport moist and unstable air north from the Desert Southwest and Great Basin.
608 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Monday) West Texas will remain in northwest flow aloft through Monday as the system which brought our cold front moves into the eastern Great Lakes region and ridging persists along the spine of the Rockies.
721 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 After an afternoon break, rain chances continue tonight and Monday as a cold front approaches and crosses.
Warmer overnight tonight with temps this hour still in the mid to upper 70s across the valley and eastern ND. Values a touch cooler on the MN side of the FA. With light winds and some mixing will see lows in the low 40s. There should be a bit more mixing than last night and a higher starting point thanks to warmer highs. South to southeasterly winds will pick up a bit tomorrow as a trough moves into western ND.
Clouds will diminish through the evening as high pressure builds over the area.
755 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Showers and some thunderstorms will move across the area ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight.
815 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 A cold front will move through the region late Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
801 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 RAP analysis and GOES 16 water vapor imagery highlights broad troughing extending south out of Hudson Bay into the Central Plains. Highs so far have only reached the low to mid 60s. The low S of the forecast area - that is the primary focus to start off this forecast period, with the question lingering of how far N and W the precip shield will get. In other words, expect gradients for both the precip and temps tonight, dry and cool in the W, not-so-dry and warmer in the E, the former temps-wise due to radiational cooling while the latter temps-wise will be due to moderation.
Temperatures will be near normal or even slightly below normal over the next few days as cloud cover and a cooler airmass moves across the region. Coastal areas will also see more marine influence with cooler afternoon temperatures and areas of morning low clouds and patchy fog. This afternoon an upper level low well off the Oregon coast is dragging a nearly stationary frontal boundary over the area. Tonight and Monday this upper level low starts to move into Washington and British Columbia. This continues to bring cooler air aloft to the area and the potential for thunderstorms.
The cold front has cleared the region with all of the shower and thunderstorm activity out of the Mid-South.
642 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Warmer overnight tonight with temps this hour still in the mid to upper 70s across the valley and eastern ND. Values a touch cooler on the MN side of the FA. With light winds and some mixing will see lows in the low 40s. There should be a bit more mixing than last night and a higher starting point thanks to warmer highs. South to southeasterly winds will pick up a bit tomorrow as a trough moves into western ND.
On Monday, heights and mid-level temps increase as upper level ridge builds, and expect max temps to shoot upward some 15 degf on the plains, while mts/valleys see more modest warming of around 5 degf.
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Highlights: 1) Nice and seasonal normal highs on Monday 2) Warmer for rest of week (back into 90s) The low pressure system that moved through yesterday is now over the Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile a ridge off to the west will build back in to the Plains.
Scattered showers expected overnight as a cold front moves across Ohio and approaches the PA border shortly after daybreak. Dry conditions will resume behind the front as it transitions east of the ridges later in the afternoon. After a dry night, a few isolated and light showers will be possible north of PGH Tuesday as an upper low slides north of the region, the majority of the region will be dry with highs around 70F. Ptchy restrictions are psbl Tue with a crossing upr trough.
GOES16 Nighttime microphysics band was showing an upper low centered over Lake Michigan, while the area from Yellowstone through the central Rockies, southwest Kansas into Arkansas was clear. Much warmer temperatures are expected with no wide ranges spatially across the area this afternoon. Tonightâs temperatures look a little warmer but still seasonally near normal, in the low 50s west to the upper 50s in the eastern counties.
229 AM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region late today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) A southward moving cold front along with daytime heating and a weak mid-level disturbance has produced some isolated convection from the southern Edwards Plateau southward into the Rio Grande plains. With mostly clear skies in store overnight and some drier air filtering in from the north, we will see lows drop into the low/mid 60s in the Hill Country to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows Monday night will fall into the lower 60s across the Hill Country and favored cool spots along the I-35 corridor near Austin.
1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Highlights: 1) Nice and seasonal normal highs on Monday 2) Warmer for rest of week (back into 90s) The low pressure system that moved through yesterday is now over the Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile a ridge off to the west will build back in to the Plains.
The axis of a mid to upper level ridge will move from the Nevada/Idaho area towards western Colorado tonight and into Monday. There is QG descent associated with ridge with very dry air within it. Warmer 700 mb temperatures will move over our forecast area as highs will warm around 10 degrees above today's highs. The highs across the plains will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with Denver reaching 88. Despite this, fire weather conditions will be on the lower side due to relatively light winds. Mostly dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across North Central and Northeastern Colorado Monday night through Tuesday as upper level high pressure remains centered over the Rocky Mountain Region.
437 AM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 An upper level low will move slowly east across the lower Great Lakes from today through Tuesday causing scattered showers and cool temperatures. High pressure will build in from midweek into the weekend providing mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. An upper low will slowly move from the upper Midwest into the lower Lakes today. The upper low will move across the region tonight into Tuesday. Lows tonight will dip into the the mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday reaching the low to mid 70s. Expect lows Tuesday night to drop into the lower and middle 50s. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
The low to our west will occlude and slowly retrograde west this morning, then will pivot back east through lower MI. Cooler northwest flow will follow in behind the eastward departure of the expansive low pressure system. Temperatures will have a gradual warming trend through this week, starting off in the 60s today and warming to near 80 by the end of the week as an 850mb thermal ridges approaches from the west. Gale force winds continue this morning mainly south of Muskegon as the dry slot of the upper low narrows in on the West Michigan lakeshore.
Upper level ridge across the Rockies is expected to shift east leading to another week of above normal temperatures.
A cold front across central Kentucky and Tennessee continues to move east with a line of showers along it. Drier and cooler air moving in post-front during Monday. Discussion: A large low pressure system near Lake Michigan will remain nearly stationary overnight then drift northeast. This system will pull a cold front through our area tonight. Hi-res CAMS also show very little stronger convection (and coverage is not that extensive overall either), so will have no more than slight chance of thunder overnight to go with the high chance/likely PoPs.
Rain showers will be possible this morning ahead of a cold front; generally east of Interstate 75. Discussion: A closed and stacked low across the Great Lakes will bring a cold front across the region today. The highest PoPs mid-day through the early afternoon will be across the far eastern zones along the mountains, far northeastern Tennessee, and Washington/Russell Counties of southwest Virginia ahead of the cold front. As it moves eastward, northwest winds will bring a return of cooler, drier air to the region. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler than normal with an early fall-like feel tonight into Tuesday morning.
1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (This evening through Monday) Tranquil weather will prevail across West Central Texas the next 24 hours, with warmer temperatures beginning tomorrow. Some mid and high level clouds will affect mainly the Big Country overnight, otherwise skies will be clear to partly cloudy, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
The upper ridge influence with warm air advection will push afternoon highs to the upper 80s to around 90 across the west and near 85 in the east. Went toward the warmer MET and MAV Guidance for highs. with upper ridging building over the region, H85 temperatures will be from 9 to 12C above normal.
303 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 06Z surface data has low pressure over Lake Michigan east northeast of Milwaukee. High pressure ran from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Upper low across northern Illinois will keep areas of rain going through the morning generally along/east of the Mississippi and along/north of I-80. As the upper low moves toward Indiana in the afternoon, the rain will slowly end from west to east. Tonight dry but cool conditions will be seen as high pressure builds in from the Plains.
206 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Today and tonight: A deep closed upper low currently centered over northern Illinois will gradually shift east into northern Ohio through the day today and tonight. As of early this morning, an associated surface cold front is dropping south through the area and is forecast to reach the Gulf Coast by this evening. For today, mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Several readings in the low 50s are also expected across northeast portions of the area, especially in traditional cool drainage locations.
the first cold front of the season has arrived. Some fog lingers across NE AL at this hour, however the cold front is currently moving in and will lift it. The low that pulled the cold front through the TN Valley last night will drift across the Great Lakes today. WV satellite shows the drier air wrapping around the upper level low and spreading across the region.
The cold front just about bifurcates the FA at 2 PM, but there is some hedge to its exact location. The draw-down in dew points has commenced behind the cold front, across the northwest third of the FA. Tmrw still looks like a pleasantly cooler day with lower relative humidity. New guidance suggests it will be a tad warmer than previous modeled data showed, about a category higher with generally 75-80F readings across the area. With low pressure centered in northern Indiana, and high pressure ridging across the Tennessee Valley, it's going to be quite breezy, with 15-25 mph/gusts in the afternoon. The high pressure ridge becomes more dominant for us Tuesday, relaxing the gradient and yielding upper 70s-lower 80s for highs, and low-mid 50s for lows.
near a weak surface pressure ridge running west southwestward across the area, while the lower level ridge is broadly centered over South and Central Florida. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low is centered near central Cuba and does have a mid level reflection. The upper level low will continue to meander southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sean. No trend in temperatures and moisture are forecast and day time highs will generally be near 90 and lows in the lower 80s. Heading through mid week, a larger upper level low will approach Florida from the east southeast and weaken and get slurped up by a passing eastern North American mid latitude trough. However, a likely associated weak surface through lower level trough will also ride west northwestward into South Florida and the Keys.
However, as the upper low passes to our north today, expect to see increased cloud cover this afternoon generally across southern IN and northern KY. Afternoon highs are progged to top out in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 50s. Overnight lows into Tuesday morning will then be in the lower to mid 50s for most.
Meanwhile, frontal boundary associated with upper level trough over the Midwest tails south into the Southeast, as high pressure remains east to southeast of the Peninsula. Overnight lows stay in the low to mid 70s. Winds become more easterly after through the remaining of the week as high pressure moves north of the state, as upper level ridge builds from the west. Current area of low pressure over the Gulf combined with high pressure east of the Peninsula will keep southwest flow over the waters through the next couple of days. Frontal boundary along with high pressure to our east will keep west to southwest flow across fire districts over the next few days.
(Today) A dry northwest flow aloft prevails over the region this morning on the back side of an upper low centered near Chicago. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern OK. The low level thermal trough that pushed into the region behind yesterday's cold front will shift east in tandem with the upper trough.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, though, as the upper low continues to push eastward across the Midwest. The warming trend continues on Tuesday as upper level ridging centers over the region.
(Today through Tuesday) Latest WPC surface analysis places a cold front from Del Rio to Hondo to Cuero, with light NNE flow behind this boundary over the I- 35 Corridor and Hill Country. Temps will quickly climb into the low to mid 90s along with plenty of sunshine and ENE winds. MOS guidance even indicates temperatures as low at the lower 60s over the Hill Country, but we won't get too cute with our forecast.
(Today and tonight) The upper low and subsequent trough responsible for yesterday's cold front are slowly making their way east through the Midwest. This exiting trough will put the area in a realm of weak north to northwest flow aloft as high amplitude upper level ridging begins to drift east out of the Rockies. The 850 mb thermal ridge will also see a slight strengthening today. The only point of note is there may be a slight increase in winds overnight, especially across the Big Country, as lee troughing tightens the pressure gradient.
950 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Upper Ridge will persist across the Northern Plains/Dakotas through Tuesday, bringing warm and dry conditions. Locally breezy winds behind the trough will result in elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon across northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota.
239 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Latest water vapor imagery early this morning is showing a large upper low over northern Illinois. The latest run of the HREF is showing that the upper low will slowly move off to the east today. There may still be some partly cloudy skies over the northern and eastern counties as the low moves off, but subsidence in the wake of the low and HREF precipitation probabilities favor keeping the forecast dry today. Will go with mostly clear skies tonight into Tuesday as a upper ridge builds into the area. With mainly sunny skies across the area today and warming low levels, will go with highs that warm about 5 degrees warmer than yesterdays, with highs on Tuesday climbing around another 5 degrees.
304 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Kind of a convoluted surface pressure pattern this morning with high pressure to the south and a stalled weakening low to the east, while there is a low to the northwest. Low level flow increases as the system to the northwest moves into the western Dakotas, while just to the west of this low, HRRR near-surface smoke progs suggest some smoke will move across west river. This will clear out any low level smoke, however HRRR continues to indicates that the ridge aloft will continue to provide an ample pathway for a high sheen of smoke.
1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (This evening through Monday) West Texas will remain in northwest flow aloft through Monday as the system which brought our cold front moves into the eastern Great Lakes region and ridging persists along the spine of the Rockies.
340 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Slow-moving storm system which brought rain to the area late last week continues to drift east through the southern Great Lakes, allowing an upper ridge to begin building into the northern Plains today. Skies remain cloud-free tonight, though we could begin to see some high-level smoke layer begin to stream across the region around the upper ridge.
Broad high pressure to the southwest will allow for plenty of sunshine today, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon. Confidence is high in dry, quiet weather persisting through the work week as an upper level ridge builds over our area. High pressure was building into the region this evening forcing northwest breezes.
236 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 High pressure will slowly slide through the central and northern Rockies today and Tuesday. The cold frontal passage should push the majority of the smoke south of the area tonight. Tuesday will only be slightly cooler behind the front, with highs generally in the mid 80s. Southwest flow on the west side of the ridge will bring increasing moisture and energy into the southwest mountains Tuesday afternoon. Models have backed off some on shower potential but will maintain low PoPs over the higher terrain, just at a slightly decreased level.
The cold front approaching the area has entered northwest Louisiana which can be denoted by observations reporting dewpoints in the low to mid 60s just west of Shreveport. This slightly cooler and drier airmass should make its way down through south and central Louisiana tomorrow morning, thus a fairly pleasant day is in store to start off the work week. Additional showers or possibly even a storm will be possible ahead of the advancing cold front this afternoon into the evening. Tonight the cold front will sweep through the area setting up a string of dry and slightly below normal days as high pressure lingers over the area.
/Issued 1246 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022/ /Monday and Tuesday/ Yesterday's cold front ushered in a pleasant early fall airmass. A high pressure ridge will move across the region today and keep the dry air in place for at least another day. Unfortunately, the ridge moving through also means the cold advection has ended so the gradual warm-up will begin today. As the high pressure center continues to shift east, return flow will set back up tonight and slowly usher in a warm/humid airmass. Thankfully, the moisture return takes a few days so tomorrow will be even warmer with highs in the 90s, but still not quite "humid". /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ With the upper ridge dominating the North and Central Texas weather by mid-week, expect the above normal temperatures and dry weather to continue throughout most of the region.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level trough/low is centered over the Midwest, and upper ridging is building over the Four Corners region. The upper ridge to the west will expand over the region today. The upper ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Southeast New Mexico south to the Big Bend on Tuesday afternoon as low-level moisture interacts with the higher terrain.
19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low over the upper MS river valley with upper level ridging from the southern to the northern Rockies. Surface obs showed a high pressure system centered over western KS which is responsible for the fall like airmass today. Surface ridging is progged to weaken as it passes south of the central plains. And the low level warm air advection pattern is forecast to cause high temperatures to warm back into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Tuesday.
Most convective activity is focused east of the area along a pre- frontal trough. As the cold front filters into our region overnight, light north winds should keep the temperatures from dropping too quickly. Dry adiabatic descent in the lower levels will help to mix down dry air from aloft, and afternoon dew points have been nudged lower toward high-res guidance values (yielding RH values in the 30 percent range for the Delta). /NF/ Today and tomorrow: An upper trough that has brought moisture into the region over previous days will begin to exit the ArkLaMiss area over the short term period. Overnight, a surface front will begin to push into the northwest as the upper trough axis lifts towards the eastern CONUS.
1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) A weak surface cold front continues to linger near the coast this afternoon, with dry air advection in its wake as well as efficient daytime mixing dropping dew point values into the mid-60s at most locations this afternoon. Continued CAA will provide some additional relief in the form of lower temperatures on Monday night, with inland lows in the 60s to near 70 and coastal lows in the low to mid 70s.
(Today through Tuesday Night) The weak cold front that moved through the region yesterday is already over the coastal waters. Temperatures will climb from the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s to low 70s (inland) and in the low to mid 70s along the coast. With the ridge in place, strong subsidence and warmer conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday. Highs will generally be from the low to mid 90s.
Dry conditions will resume behind the front as it transitions east of the ridges later in the afternoon. After a dry night, a few isolated and light showers will be possible north of PGH Tuesday as an upper low slides north of the region, the majority of the region will be dry with highs around 70F. Ptchy restrictions are psbl Tue with a crossing upr trough.
428 AM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region late today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
Thus, with clear skies in place, expect overnight lows to once again fall into the low to mid 40s with the aid of efficient radational cooling. By Monday night, should see upper level ridging over the Rockies begin to push eastward across the central CONUS. Highs during this time will also continue to moderate, as values rise in the low to mid 80s.