Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most guidance still indicates the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of central Louisiana later this morning so maintained scattered PoPs for this area through 18Z before reducing to isolated through the afternoon as the sprawling upper trof associated with the boundary begins to lift north bringing the front with it. Weak ridging aloft will build across the region tomorrow keeping a lid on precipitation. However, as this ridge departs to the east, the abundant low level moisture will support diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend.
1259 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 /06Z TAFS/ Winds at KABI will become northeast in the early morning hours, with passage of a backdoor cold front. Temperatures are not really cooler behind the front, but they are more moist with surface dewpoints in the 60s.
/issued 858 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ An upper level low pressure system remains over the Tennessee River Valley this evening. Shower development associated with the upper low peaked just before sunset. /issued 308 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ Precipitation from the upper level low has underperformed so far today. Will still maintain low rain chances this afternoon, mainly across West Tennessee as the upper low sinks closer to the area. Overnight, the low is expected to weaken slightly as it turns to the East tracking along the Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee State lines. Thursday looks mostly dry as a narrow ridge tries to build in from the West. The ridge will deamplify quickly Thursday and the upper low is expected to retrograde a bit before tracking off to the Northeast.
We are seeing low level dry air wrap into southern WI on the northwest side of that stubborn upper low that continues to sit over Tennessee. The upper low over TN will actually shift to the northwest a little during the day on Thursday.
131 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 The stretch of nice weather continues across the North Country as high pressure remains anchored across eastern Canada.
319 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large upper level closed low sitting over the southeastern US. At the surface, Atlantic ridging is currently extending across the Florida Straits, while the surface reflection of the closed low pushes a weak cold front into the Florida Panhandle by tonight.
355 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 The center of an upper level low will track slowly north-northeast across ID today and be moving into western MT by early this evening. The system has become somewhat negatively tilted and the base of the upper trough will pivot into WY this evening. At the surface a leeward trough will deepen across far eastern WY southward along the Front Range in CO. Southeast low-level upslope flow will increase through the day and advect upper 50s surface dew points into western SD southward through eastern CO to the east of the leeward trough. As large scale ascent arrives and overspreads the trough thunderstorms will develop. A vort max will rotate northeast around the northern Rockies upper low.
Today Through Thursday Night An upper low ovr TN wl keep a N/NW flow aloft in place acrs the FA into Thu. Some moisture/clouds wl cont to wrap arnd the WRN periphery of the low at times today, mainly acrs the N half of the FA. Readings are fcst to range fm the lower/mid 70s north, to the upper 70s/lower 80s cntrl and south. The aforementioned upr low is fcst to finally begin lifting to the NE as a new upr lvl trof apchs fm the Plains States later Thu.
Low Pressure over southern Indiana is expected to slowly move to Tennessee tonight.
357 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 The stretch of nice weather continues across the North Country as high pressure remains anchored across eastern Canada.
Beyond this, made some tweaks to hourly temps and dewpoints to reflect obs, but this did not result in any significant changes to overnight temperatures with lows in the middle 60s acrs cntl LA to the lower 70s along and south of I-10. Rain chances tonight and Wednesday will remain confined to central Louisiana in the vicinity of a cold front edging into this area. Feature associated with a cyclone now advancing south into the Tennessee valley where it is expected to stall.
Otherwise rest of the forecast still looks on track as low clouds look to set in the rest of the night on the northwest side of the upper low. Overnight lows will not fall of much more given the low clouds and light winds. Britt Deep cut off low pressure centered over southwest Kentucky/northwest Tennessee will drift southeast into eastern Tennessee tonight. Meanwhile, the next upstream longwave trough over the western CONUS will continue moving slowly east, squeezing the longwave ridge over the Great Plains between it and the low over Tennessee.
1203 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 Visible satellite this afternoon shows a broken deck of low level clouds across the region as an upper-level cut-off low is situated over southwestern Kentucky that is very slowly moving towards the southeast. A similar, albeit slightly warmer, day is in store for Wednesday as the upper level low becomes situated under a rex block to our east. This will lead to the low retrograding across Tennessee and Kentucky, resulting in lingering areas of cloud cover and some isolated sprinkles and light showers throughout the day tomorrow. The upper level pattern begins to change on Thursday as the rex block begins to break down ahead of a broad upper level trough over the western CONUS. We will begin to see a shift into warmer temperatures starting on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
402 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Broad ridging expands over eastern North America today while the early week cutoff low meanders over the Tennessee Valley and a deep trough digs through the intermountain west. Deep-layer anticyclonic flow and dry air will dominate the conditions for SE Michigan for the most part with mostly sunny skies expected, though some moisture and influence from the upper low to the south will result in periods of mid and high clouds over the southern forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over New England will expand westward into our region.
Water vapor satellite imagery and h5 heights show that the closed low has drifted toward Kentucky. The surface map showed the ridge of high pressure building in toward KMSP with lower dewpoints in the 30s. heights are forecast to lower with the approaching longwave trough/closed low over Nevada. This closed low lifts northeast across Idaho. High pressure continues to build over the area Wednesday night, holding through Thursday. Otherwise, warmer Thursday with highs in the 70-75 degree range.
The deep trough extending from the Great Lake States southward into the north central portion of the Florida Peninsula will lift northward over the next couple of days. With no discreet disturbances or strong high pressure nearby, climo 30 percent pops will prevail for most of this period.
Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge was over the forecast area. Warmer mid level cap remains across the Dakotas today but will diminish tonight. Storms currently in the High Plains were under the 700 theta-e ridge. Theta-e ridge forecast to shift east into central and eastern ND on Thu. MuCapes forecast to be 500-1000 j/kg but are confined to the western edge of the theta-e ridge.
328 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Hydro - Dry weather through the end of the work week - Temperatures trending warmer - Next best chance of rain Memorial Day - Dry weather through the end of the work week The large upper level low that brought the record rainfall to the region will continue to move southward. High pressure will build over the region and dry air will dominate through the end of the week. The only caveat will be that the deep low pressure system will work its way to the northeast. - Temperatures trending warmer Along with the drier, fairer weather, will come with it an upward trend of temperatures.
621 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 An upper low was over Tennessee early this morning.
In the near term, confidence of rain on Thursday morning in the higher terrain of Coos and Douglas counties has increased. The highest peaks could also observe some light snow accumulations with snow levels around 5,000-5,500 feet.
Cooler temperatures are expected near Lake Superior with east to northeasterly flow.
Our upper pattern remains largely unchanged from yesterday with a closed low pressure circulation noted over TN/KY, a narrow ridge of high pressure over the central US, and an amplified trough in place over the entire western tier of the US. This is a classic blocking pattern that typically creates fairly stagnant pattern progression. If the cloud prediction holds true and scattering occurs by early afternoon, temperatures should make it back into the low 70s in eastern KS this afternoon with slightly warmer conditions closer to central KS where cloud cover will not be as dominate.
Temperatures range from the middle 50s over north Mississippi to the lower 60s over portions of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Latest model guidance keep the upper level low nearly stationary over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. This will keep us on the western periphery of the low. Temperatures also look to climb a few more degrees, with readings in the low to mid 70s areawide. The Omega Blocking pattern looks to break down a bit by Thursday, as the Central Plains ridge finally gets squashed by the prevailing westerlies. The departing low will put us on the subsident side of the low, leading to dry conditions, clearing skies, and warming temperatures.
/Issued 502 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020/ The main concern this short term period is shower and thunderstorm chances associated with an upper level low pressure system spinning its wheels over the TN valley near the TN/GA border. The models are fairly consistent drifting the upper low toward the OH valley with time, mainly after today.
1023 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 A closed upper low will meander over Tennessee and Kentucky the next two days, as high pressure remains entrenched over the northeast CONUS.
529 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Low pressure will maintain rain chances mainly south of I 70 today.
Max temperatures Thursday will be slightly cooler across Brush Country while the Rio Grande plains will remain hot. Hi- Res models are showing an MCS developing over the higher Mexican terrain and moving eastward, with the possibility of affecting the Rio Grande and Northern Brush Country.
636 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Aviation - Dry weather through the end of the work week - Temperatures trending warmer - Next best chance of rain Memorial Day - Dry weather through the end of the work week The large upper level low that brought the record rainfall to the region will continue to move southward. High pressure will build over the region and dry air will dominate through the end of the week. The only caveat will be that the deep low pressure system will work its way to the northeast. - Temperatures trending warmer Along with the drier, fairer weather, will come with it an upward trend of temperatures.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over middle TN and was wobbling back to the W-NW. The upper low should continue to drift north, as another upper trough pattern digs across the wrn states. Rain chances Thu will again be focused around the departing upper low, with the higher prob located from srn mid TN into north cntrl/NE AL. Energy from the upper trough axis to the west will then begin to traverse east heading into the end of the work week, with sct showers/tstms possible for the whole area. A return flow pattern in place will also translate into afternoon highs Fri in the lower 80s for most locations. Temps Fri night will also trend seasonably warm, with lows in the lower/mid 60s.
Otherwise, high temps will rise to the lower 90s while Martin county stays in the upper 80s with partly cloudy skies.
530 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 Persistent stratus clouds and patchy drizzle and fog continue across much of the forecast area early this morning on the backside of the slow moving cut-off upper low which has dropped southeast into south central TN. This low will move back northward into southern IN by late Thursday afternoon as it slowly fills. Prefer the slower forecast movement of the upper low by the GEFS and EPS ensemble means over the faster deterministic GFS model solution in this amplified blocky upper level pattern over the US. Low level clouds will continue on Thursday with only a slight chance of light showers in southeast MO and southwest IL, just west- northwest of the upper low.
/issued 319 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020/ Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a large upper level closed low sitting over the southeastern US. At the surface, Atlantic ridging is currently extending across the Florida Straits, while the surface reflection of the closed low pushes a weak cold front into the Florida Panhandle by tonight.
352 AM PDT Wed May 20 2020 A low pressure system will move east with weak high pressure moving across California on Thursday.
841 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Low pressure will maintain rain chances mainly south of I 70 today.
Cut-off upper level low pressure will move very little over the next 24 hours as a blocking ridge builds to its north and east from the Great Lakes to the East Coast.
657 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 The center of an upper level low will track slowly north-northeast across ID today and be moving into western MT by early this evening. The system has become somewhat negatively tilted and the base of the upper trough will pivot into WY this evening. At the surface a leeward trough will deepen across far eastern WY southward along the Front Range in CO. Southeast low-level upslope flow will increase through the day and advect upper 50s surface dew points into western SD southward through eastern CO to the east of the leeward trough. As large scale ascent arrives and overspreads the trough thunderstorms will develop. A vort max will rotate northeast around the northern Rockies upper low.
408 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 GOES-16 satellite imagery and H5 heights show the stacked upper low still spinning near the Ohio River Valley and the western low still spinning over the Great Basin. In between these two lows, steep upper ridging has developed over the intermountain west and western Plains, building up and over the southern Canadian Provinces, and effectively cutting off the eastern low today.
The pesky upper level low has shifted to the Tennessee valley. And its quite possible a few sprinkles have fallen out of the lower clouds. Guidance is showing mixed signals, but generally agree on some scattering of the lowest cloud deck.
624 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 GOES-16 satellite imagery and H5 heights show the stacked upper low still spinning near the Ohio River Valley and the western low still spinning over the Great Basin. In between these two lows, steep upper ridging has developed over the intermountain west and western Plains, building up and over the southern Canadian Provinces, and effectively cutting off the eastern low today.
Initially, we will still be dealing with a pesky upper level low that will be positioned across the western portion of the Commonwealth to start out Thursday evening.
715 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 The stretch of nice weather continues across the North Country as high pressure remains anchored across eastern Canada.
High pressure builds Wednesday into the Memorial Day weekend with dry weather and a gradual warming trend to above normal temperatures inland by this weekend. The upper low/late season storm system that brought active weather to the region the last few days continues to move eastward. The next seven days will generally feature building high pressure, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures. High pressure will build over the region today allowing for the start of a warming trend.
526 AM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Water vapor shows broad/deep trof over the intermountain west, with ridge axis extending through the ern Dakotas. Upper trof to our west will continue to nudge slowly eastward today with upper low evolving northward into the northern Rockies. Staunch cap will gradually erode by late afternoon within a narrow area from northeast WY into very far western SD, where MLCAPE of 1500-2500J/kg will be place, as potent trof rotate northeastward into the forecast area. Severe threat will gradually dissipate in the evening as large scale ascent lifts further north and storms struggle to move further east onto the SD plains due to eastern CONUS blocking.
This morning, the upper low is situated over East Tennessee. Due to the location of the upper low, cell/storm movement will be toward the W or SW.
/Today through Thursday Night/ Closed upper low continues to spin across the Mid South, with weak upper ridging present across the Southern Plains. Weak sfc boundary associated with the upper low currently noted across the swrn portion of our region. Boundary to begin moving nwd as a warm front tonight, as sly winds return in response to a trof axis over the wrn CONUS. A series of vort maxes associated with the trof will bring some lift, which will bring returning rain chances for Thursday/Thursday night as they interact with the lingering boundary.
The stratus that was to develop from the west and move in from the west, seems having trough developing below the mid to high level sky cover, and the experimental HRRR also confirms that the stratus will be nearly non-existent. Models have been fairly consistent with 850 mb temps for the past few runs, if anything, the ECMWF might be a touch cooler than previous runs. With the blocking low to the east, the cold front expected to move into the Plains will be slow-moving, holding off chances of rain until late tonight. I tried to hold off on POPs longer in our east heading into Thursday afternoon, given the blocking nature of our pattern and recent Hi-Res model output.
1019 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 The stretch of nice weather continues across the North Country as high pressure remains anchored across eastern Canada.
Water vapor shows broad/deep trof over the intermountain west, with ridge axis extending through the ern Dakotas. Upper trof to our west will continue to nudge slowly eastward today with upper low evolving northward into the northern Rockies. Staunch cap will gradually erode by late afternoon within a narrow area from northeast WY into very far western SD, where MLCAPE of 1500-2500J/kg will be place, as potent trof rotate northeastward into the forecast area. Severe threat will gradually dissipate in the evening as large scale ascent lifts further north and storms struggle to move further east onto the SD plains due to eastern CONUS blocking.
502 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure will settle in across the area bringing not only fair and dry weather but a warming trend for the rest of this week.
A low pressure system will bring much cooler temperatures across much of the area today, along with the first measurable precipitation in some time across northern and central Utah.
Weak high pressure will remain over the northern Gulf and slowly migrate eastward throughout the week. Max temperatures will remain slightly above normal with low temperatures being well above normal given the higher dewpoints as tropical airmass settles. Weak high pressure will remain over much of the Gulf of Mexico for much of the week. The Bermuda ridge will begin to bring deep southeasterly winds back to the area by Thursday and these conditions are expected to remain into the new week mainly around 10-15kt.
413 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 Our upper pattern remains largely unchanged from yesterday with a closed low pressure circulation noted over TN/KY, a narrow ridge of high pressure over the central US, and an amplified trough in place over the entire western tier of the US. This is a classic blocking pattern that typically creates fairly stagnant pattern progression. If the cloud prediction holds true and scattering occurs by early afternoon, temperatures should make it back into the low 70s in eastern KS this afternoon with slightly warmer conditions closer to central KS where cloud cover will not be as dominate.
452 AM MDT Wed May 20 2020 Today-Tonight: Active weather (compared to recent days) is anticipated in the lee of the Northern/Central Rockies this afternoon/evening as flow aloft backs to the S-SSW in advance of a deep upper level trough progressing eastward from the Intermountain West into the Rockies -- and southeasterly low- level flow strengthens on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee cyclone. models are showing an upper-level pattern shifting with a H5 troughing more pronounced across the region.
502 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 The main concern this short term period is shower and thunderstorm chances associated with an upper level low pressure system spinning its wheels over the TN valley near the TN/GA border. The models are fairly consistent drifting the upper low toward the OH valley with time, mainly after today.
This should preclude thunder for most of the Mid-South, although a few storms will be possible in the lower TN Valley near Paris or Camden this afternoon. Temperatures range from the middle 50s over north Mississippi to the lower 60s over portions of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Latest model guidance keep the upper level low nearly stationary over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. This will keep us on the western periphery of the low. Temperatures also look to climb a few more degrees, with readings in the low to mid 70s areawide. The Omega Blocking pattern looks to break down a bit by Thursday, as the Central Plains ridge finally gets squashed by the prevailing westerlies. The departing low will put us on the subsident side of the low, leading to dry conditions, clearing skies, and warming temperatures.
557 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 An upper level cyclonic flow will persist over the region into tonight as upper level low pressure retrogrades northwest across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. We went a bit below the model blend for highs today with a slight nudge towards the cooler NAM nest.
The stratus that was to develop from the west and move in from the west, seems having trough developing below the mid to high level sky cover, and the experimental HRRR also confirms that the stratus will be nearly non-existent. Models have been fairly consistent with 850 mb temps for the past few runs, if anything, the ECMWF might be a touch cooler than previous runs. With the blocking low to the east, the cold front expected to move into the Plains will be slow-moving, holding off chances of rain until late tonight.
511 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Marine - Dry weather through the end of the work week - Temperatures trending warmer - Next best chance of rain Memorial Day - Dry weather through the end of the work week The large upper level low that brought the record rainfall to the region will continue to move southward. High pressure will build over the region and dry air will dominate through the end of the week. The only caveat will be that the deep low pressure system will work its way to the northeast. - Temperatures trending warmer Along with the drier, fairer weather, will come with it an upward trend of temperatures.
506 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 High pressure will settle in across the area bringing not only fair and dry weather but a warming trend for the rest of this week.
401 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020 Persistent stratus clouds and patchy drizzle and fog continue across much of the forecast area early this morning on the backside of the slow moving cut-off upper low which has dropped southeast into south central TN. This low will move back northward into southern IN by late Thursday afternoon as it slowly fills. Prefer the slower forecast movement of the upper low by the GEFS and EPS ensemble means over the faster deterministic GFS model solution in this amplified blocky upper level pattern over the US. Low level clouds will continue on Thursday with only a slight chance of light showers in southeast MO and southwest IL, just west- northwest of the upper low.