Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The warmer modeled 925 mb temperatures from the ECMWF appear to be preferred, so high temperatures were nudged upward across most of the region with 30's and even 40's in parts of the Southern Poconos. Unseasonably cold weather continues with a persistent northerly flow and a larger upper trof. Much colder air follows the low and despite the late season, to looks to be cold enough to activate the lake resulting in scattered snow showers and flurries tonight into Saturday. Yet another upper low drops in Saturday night enhancing the chance for snow showers, especially over the Catskills. Cool and dry high pressure will settle over the area during this time.
However, it may take into the early afternoon hours for KBBD and KJCT to finally break out of the low clouds. /issued 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Expect warmer than normal temperatures again today with gusty south winds across the entire region. (Saturday through Friday) Significant changes to the weather are expected through the next 7 days as an upper level low pressure system develops across the western U.
One source of uncertainty regarding snowfall accumulations is compaction relating to near freezing temperatures, which in themselves are still a bit uncertain for today, and strong southeast winds. Patchy freezing drizzle is possible with ice loss in the column tonight.
821 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure.
Another quiet and cool day lies ahead due to upstream short wave ridging and persistent dry air flow in the low to mid levels. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore areas a few degrees cooler today, mostly in the upper 30s. Inland areas should climb into the low to mid 40s. Impressive layer q-vector convergence of 20-30 units in the low levels remains just southwest of MKX CWA but mid-level convergence of 20 units scrapes southern WI late tonight into Saturday morning. The problem remains the increasing low level easterly winds feeding drier air into the low levels of this enhanced forcing.
Unseasonably cold weather continues with a persistent northerly flow and a larger upper trof. Much colder air follows the low and despite the late season, to looks to be cold enough to activate the lake resulting in scattered snow showers and flurries tonight into Saturday. Yet another upper low drops in Saturday night enhancing the chance for snow showers, especially over the Catskills. Cool and dry high pressure will settle over the area during this time.
1104 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure.
Current trends suggest the heavy band of snow will fall across central North Dakota between now and 1 PM CDT, after which additional precipitation is likely as the short wave trough moves through. One source of uncertainty regarding snowfall accumulations is compaction relating to near freezing temperatures, which in themselves are still a bit uncertain for today, and strong southeast winds. Patchy freezing drizzle is possible with ice loss in the column tonight.
916 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure builds today. An upper level low from northern Quebec will cross the region on Saturday.
A cold upper level trough along the Pacific Northwest coast will move east and impact mainly northern and western Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend.
Dry northwest flow continues aloft as an upper ridge over the Great Plains begins to flatten and push east over the local area. With cool north winds ending and onshore flow returning, a warming and moistening trend begins as temperatures reach the low to mid 70s across much of the area today and only dip into the low to mid 50s tonight.
South to southeast winds will increase later this morning as low pressure passes to the north of the state. As the aforementioned low passes to the north of the state during the day Saturday, it will drag a cold front through the state. Attention will then be turn to a large trough that will be sitting over the Pacific northwest by the end of the period.
1030 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure is settling south over the region and will be continue to settle over the area then shift east through Saturday. Very dry conditions will persist today, then as winds become more easterly as the high center shifts east tomorrow, moisture will moderate some, though critical humidities will still occur across much of the area Saturday afternoon.
942 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
Deep layer high pressure will build over the tri-state area today.
* Low for cig aob 5kft early this afternoon, then again late tonight into tomorrow morning Extensive surface ridging will remain entrenched over the area as strong high pressure builds through Ontario in Quebec this weekend.
By this afternoon the warm front should be situated from Northeast Arkansas to Northeast Mississippi. The warm front will become stationary near the KY/MO borders with the best chances for rain along the front and north. Some instability works into the area ahead of the cold front on Saturday so a few thunderstorms are possible. mainly Saturday afternoon and evening along the cold front.
Temperatures are on the rise this morning, regardless of the cloud cover, following the warm frontal passage overnight. Rain and mountain snow was affecting much of the area overnight as a warm front lifted north and east through the region. High temperatures will range from the 50s in the west today, to the lower 40s in the east, with 40s and 50s for highs on Saturday.
Otherwise, temperatures are just above freezing for most of the area. Looking at Aberdeen/Watertown, once the column saturates we go to snow, with surface temperatures around/above freezing. We then lose saturation within the dendritic growth zone once the best forcing moves northeast, while surface temperatures hover at or just slightly above freezing. So, to reiterate all the uncertainties with this system: it will take a little while to saturate down, ground and air temperatures are right around freezing if not just a little above which will have little effect on snow accumulation but will probably keep the ice issues to a minimum. A split positive tilt mid level trof is expected to form over the western CONUS. Several waves of energy will eject out of this trof, and across the Northern Plains.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Early this morning, nrn Michigan is on the backside of upper troughing over the eastern conus. The aforementioned wave/closed low presses through the eastern Great Lakes this morning, and will be followed by another weaker wave for tonight. Highs today in the low 30s north to the upper 30s south.
With the surface cyclone remaining across eastern Colorado/western Kansas, the primary mechanism for dry line propagation today will be through vertical mixing. However, a strong thermal ridge will form over the eastern panhandle border area by late afternoon, and the strong winds will be a near given.
720 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Low pressure will continue to shift off to the east today and tonight. A trough of low pressure will will drop south through the region on Saturday and saturday night.
Today: Main concern is thunderstorm potential in the vicinity of cold front in central KS late this afternoon.
Closer to Highway 2 and locations south, thermal profiles are warmer and precipitation has thus far been mainly rain and/or a wintry mix. If anything, even with mainly rain, with surface temperatures near freezing there may still be some slick spots out there. Latest 00z models have the Pacific trough maintaining southwest flow aloft extending into the CWA through the weekend.
Northerly flow will continue through the period as an upper ridge gradually transitions into the Pacific NW.
A deep upper trough has set up to our west allowing copious amounts of moisture to stream across the area at all levels. Based on the current forecast model suite part of the upper trough to our west will lift into the Plains Monday.
347 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. A few afternoon CU will be possible, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region.
The low and mid levels will remain saturated with PWATs of 1.
451 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof across the Rockies with low spinning over Utah. Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in the higher elevations of the Black Hills may support some snow, but any accumulations are light. Upper low over Utah weakens and moves into Wyoming on Monday, with scattered showers across the area.
515 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry through mid week. A trough of low pressure will bring cooler, more seasonable weather to end the upcoming week.
A cool northerly flow continues as the upper level trough moves off to the east and a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. There is some mid and high level clouds coming over the top of the ridge which will impact mainly the northern part of the forecast area overnight and Sunday. Temperatures will be cold again overnight and then 2 to 5 degrees warmer on Sunday.
623 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry through mid week. A trough of low pressure will bring cooler, more seasonable weather to end the upcoming week.
253 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof across the Rockies with low spinning over Utah. Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in the higher elevations of the Black Hills may support some snow, but any accumulations are light. Upper low over Utah weakens and moves into Wyoming on Monday, with scattered showers across the area.
500 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Deep upper trough over the Great Basin early this morning will lift slowly eastward through the Rockies today and tonight. Farther east, plains and eastern mountains will keep enough moisture in place for sct showers today and tonight, as shallow upslope behind the cold front near the NM border persists. Snow will be limited to the higher peaks of the eastern mountains, with perhaps some light accumulations near the summit of Pikes Peak through the day. Max temps today will remain below average across the region, as cooler air continues to spread south across CO and clouds/precip hold readings down over the plains.
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the region early this week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. The axis of the upper ridge will move into the area today with 500mb heights gt 590dm and 850mb temperatures around +20 degC. A relatively deep layer of dry air within this upper ridge will combine with large scale suppression to keep skies mostly sunny today and allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. With a very warm summerlike high pressure still sitting lazily on top of the area, we can expect yet another night with valley fog Monday night with lows of mainly lower-mid 60s.
413 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Ahead of a large upper trough centered over the Four Corners Region, strong deep layer southerly flow is streaming moisture northward through much of the Southern High Plains and into the Northern Plains. Farther to the east, a weak high-over-low blocking pattern has become established across the Eastern CONUS. The upper ridge is currently centered over the Lower Great Lakes Region. A weak upper trough is drifting westward near Mobile Bay. Northerly flow on the western periphery of the trough is drawing very dry air from the Lower Great Lakes southward and across the Four State Region. Isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will remain possible with the low-level sea breeze influence, but those chances are few and far between.
325 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Warmer through mid week with dry conditions continuing. Cooler towards the end of the week with lighter winds. Northern California under upper northerly flow between building high pressure over the eastern Pacific and a closed low over the southern Great Basin. These winds and warming airmass will keep daytime RH values on the low side with only poor to moderate RH recovery at night. Upper ridge will edge slowly inland over the next couple of days bringing a few to several degrees of airmass warming each day.
with a deep 500 mb trough over the western U. The ridge remains over the upper Great Lakes this forecast period with the area being in a warm and humid airmass while the trough remains over the Rockies through 00z Mon.
An upper level high pressure system across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will keep above normal warmth in place through the weekend. Valley temperatures look to cool into the upper 50s to near 60 with ridges remaining in the low 60s. Will keep rain chances out of the forecast for now as the upper high nudges slightly south and east into the Appalachians, resulting in a minor uptick in upper height fields and similar afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s. The initial upper level high will be replaced by a southwest building ridge.
1145 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Northern and Central Wyoming will be on the western part of a low pressure storm system which will bring snow mainly to the mountains.
401 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Well-defined upper low was spinning over southern UT. Good short range model/ensemble consensus with the northeast track of the UT upper low into central WY by Monday morning, and western ND Monday night. Diffluent flow in the mid/upper levels ahead of upper low will maintain the wet and unseasonably cool weather through Monday. Periods of moderate snowfall will occur with the heavier showers over the higher mountain peaks, especially the Snowy Range. The higher mountain passes will become snow-covered with poor visibilities. Monday will be the transition day as the upper trough to the west weakens.
308 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A prominent mid-level trough centered over the Great Basin early this morning will edge east into the central Rockies by tonight before ejecting northeast across the northern and central Plains Monday and Monday night.
Look for another day of hot weather across southern Wisconsin as we remain under the western periphery of a massive upper level ridge. Still looking at 582dm plus heights with lingering anticyclonic curvature around the mid level ridge slowly shifting to our east.
Pattern remains similar to yesterday, with a mid level trough over the Rockies and a ridge from TX to the Great Lakes. 700 mb thermal ridge still extended from west TX into western KS but then was a little farther east today in MN, compared to the Dakotas yesterday. Moist plume in the lower and mid troposphere was still in place along and ahead of the nearly stationary front. Lows tonight should be mainly 65 to 70, except in the lower to mid 60s northwest of the front, northwest of a line from about Albion to Hartington. High temperatures may be just a bit cooler than today, mainly in the upper 80s to around 90, except mid 70s to mid 80s in northeast NE.
413 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. A few afternoon CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region.
A ridge of high pressure along the west coast is gradually getting stronger leading to a slow warming trend. The only appreciable weather will be areas of freezing fog in the Truckee and Sierra Valley areas as well as colder than average temperatures. Winds along the Sierra crest were increased a little as persistent easterly ridge flow couples with higher stability factors in valleys and aloft. Ridges in the Tahoe Basin through Mono County will generally see wind gusts 20-25 mph with maximum gusts up to 30 mph. While these gusts are not impressive by Sierra standards, these speeds will have implications for wind chills and could be a threat to hikers along the higher Sierra if unprepared.
315 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Early this morning, water vapor imagery depicted a large upper low centered over the Great Basin, with a tropical connection from the Eastern North Pacific and Mexico northward into the central High Plains and Northern Plains. Much cooler air in the 40s/50s resides behind the front, with warmer than normal temperatures in the 60s/70s out ahead of the front.
It eventually reached the metro, but has since began lifting northwest as a warm front. With the front expected to continue lifting northwest as a warm front, winds will become southerly today and expect a dry morning across the entire forecast area.
Water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low spinning across eastern Nevada with good upper level divergence spreading over the CWA. Wet bulb zero heights and snow levels will remain around 10500 ft through the early evening, so any accumulating snows should be confined to the higher peaks of the Snowy Range through tonight. Upper low will move into central Utah by Sunday morning, with colder air aloft moving into areas west of the Laramie Range. Upper trough will weaken and lift across Wyoming on Monday. As the trough aloft slowly begins to exit our counties, will see a slight chance of showers over our northern and eastern counties in the evening, then mostly dry after midnight.
On Monday, the w-e upper ridge, which has been camped to our north, will begin to exert itself in a southwesterly direction. As the aforementioned easterly wave shifts further west and weakens, the influence of the upper level ridge will win out.
305 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Water vapor imagery showing upper trough over the Rockies with a stronger wave in it rotating northeast into southern Utah. Decent moisture feed downstream of the trough is interacting with a deep frontal boundary from eastern Colorado into north central Nebraska to produce scattered showers over western portions of Kansas and Nebraska overnight. Should see high cloud increase from the southwest through the day and with continued cooler air pushing in from the south- southeast, have highs again a bit cooler than the previous day. On Monday morning, the mid-level trough will be located over the Rockies with southwest flow persisting over northeast Kansas as the trough slowly moves eastward through the day.
356 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Water vapor imagery showing upper trough over the Rockies with a stronger wave in it rotating northeast into southern Utah. Decent moisture feed downstream of the trough is interacting with a deep frontal boundary from eastern Colorado into north central Nebraska to produce scattered showers over western portions of Kansas and Nebraska overnight. Should see high cloud increase from the southwest through the day and with continued cooler air pushing in from the south- southeast, have highs again a bit cooler than the previous day. On Monday morning, the mid-level trough will be located over the Rockies with southwest flow persisting over northeast Kansas as the trough slowly moves eastward through the day.
243 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017 This week will begin with cooler than average temperatures today and Monday.
617 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will continue to build across the region into the mid week period.
And until we can get rid of high-amplitude long wave ridging over the eastern CONUS, will continue to see temps well above normal.
339 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low along the Utah/Nevada border with a deep trough of low pressure extending south into the Gulf of California. East of the trough, a blocking high was located over the LP of Michigan with a low south of the high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is in response to the surface front being pushed further east as the upper level low lifts from Utah into Wyoming.
Hurricane Maria is moving northward this morning, and an upper level low is spinning across the Florida Panhandle. Outside of just a few isolated showers moving inland from the Atlantic this morning, generally drier air and warmer mid level temperatures will continue to suppress most convection through the day today.
The record early fall heat has been driven by a strongly amplified and stable upper air pattern over North America that is producing a 591 dm ridge at 500 mb directly over lower Michigan. Satellite imagery and model analysis fields indicate the core of the ridge is still in place during the early morning but simulations show with good agreement that it will drift eastward through the day. This will still result in widespread high temperatures in the lower 90s but likely not as many mid 90s readings compared to the last couple of days.
BTL Mid-level clouds on the east side are associated with the upper level trough that's now centered over southern Utah. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer Sunday than they were today, making for another stellar early autumn day.
An amplified pattern continues with a long wave trough over the Great Basin and an Eastern Pacific ridge nosing in over western Canada.
For today and tonight, weak upper trough over the Gulf coast states will retro-grade west allowing ridging to build into the area with mid-level temperatures warming. The sinking motion around the ridge/warming mid-level temperatures will suppress convection development.
satellite and model analysis show a broad trough across the east half of the nation, which is gradually transitioning into a closed upper level low.
An amplified upper level trough will shift slowly east across the Great Basin tonight and into western portions of the Central Rockies Sunday providing an extremely difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains during the period. Much cooler air will filter into west central and southwest Kansas Sunday capping highs to just the 70s(F) across the area.
Right now there is an upper level trough in the western CONUS that is digging south. The trough looks to lift and cross the Rockies Monday which will push a surface front through the area and drop high temps 10 to 15 degrees in some places from Sunday to Monday.
451 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 (Today and Tonight) A large upper trough will remain west of the area through tonight but will inch closer to West Central Texas through the period. Temperatures will be cooler today as cloud cover will be more abundant, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.
340 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry through mid week. A trough of low pressure will bring cooler, more seasonable weather to end the upcoming week.
232 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will continue to build across the region into the mid week period.
Valley temperatures are near or below freezing in many areas this morning, so the frost advisories and freeze warnings remain in effect this morning. Ridging will dominate the weather across the northern Rockies this week. A weak disturbance moving through the ridge will cause some showers, mainly in the mountains Monday evening.