Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increasing downslope flow will also help temperatures warm to the highest values we have seen in over a week.
Highs today will range from the lower 40s north to around 50F south.
A cold front will begin to approach the northern CWFA Sunday Night.
/27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Sunday: Surface ridging continues to be over the region, leading to a warm afternoon as low level boundary layer temperatures are slowly on the rise as warm air advection slowly moves into the area. One thing of note is how well we have mixed with dewpoints falling into the low-mid teens. This will keep lows up somewhat in the west back closer to freezing while areas in the east could still fall into the upper 20s.
Further south, temps should rise from the single digits up into the low teens. Some weak cold air advection on the backside of the trough Sunday afternoon, but think there should be enough warming early on to keep highs ranging from single digits west to teens east.
Satl imagery and sfc obs indc that the low clouds have finally burned off along the Pecos River Valley in Southeast New Mexico.
Otherwise, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma shortly after sunrise and move quickly southeast across Oklahoma into north Texas during the day today.
High-res guidance shows some showers across the eastern zones once again and will show the higher pops (20s) in this area. On Wednesday, an upper trough will be moving east and will be centered near southern California.
337 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Eastern UT and western CO will remain under moderate southwest flow aloft ahead of another low pressure system that covers the states to the west and north. Today will be drier and warmer and Wednesday will be drier than previous thought as the western troughy pattern will be slow to move east. This process appears to slow the easterly movement of the broader long wave trough comprised of the two smaller lows.
Plenty of sunshine will result in temperatures reaching up into the low 80s for much of the CWA (upper 70s across the northwest portion).
A weak to moderate upper level trough will swing through late today and tonight, bringing showers, thunderstorms, and a wind shift. The low lingers several days over western Montana. This keeps the showers and thunderstorms continuing with all the low level convergence and unstable conditions. The trough of the near term moves out, but another low slides into place, just to the west of the forecast area, not the north. A persistent upper trof over the Pac NW will result in sct aftn showers/tstms over the mtns. Not much change expected over the next several days as a persistent upper trough over the Pac NW will continue the pattern of scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains.
A weak low pressure system will bring a slight chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two to our region today. Synoptically, a longwave trof extending from Central Canada remains across our entire region. The trof will start to progress to the east by Wednesday afternoon which will effectively bring an end of precipitation. Our string of cooler than normal conditions will continue through at least Wednesday with many spots in the 60s to lower 70s.
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure and dry conditions will persist across the CWFA for the short term period. High pressure will remain overhead today and tonight, but begin to shift offshore by late Wednesday. large-scale upper-level pattern continues fairly static with the larger wavelength troughiness stuck across the rockies and high plains and broad/weak ridging over the east.
525 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will move right over the area tonight.
A nice stretch of stable and dry conditions on tap for the majority of the week, as a mid/upper level ridge builds over the forecast area. High temperatures remain near climatology through the short term, with highs near 90 inland and cooler at the coast.
High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday weekend as various upper waves move across the area. High pressure thin high clouds over southwest sections and clear skies elsewhere.
Warmer and mainly dry conditions by this weekend. Relatively cool and unsettled weather will continue today for NorCal as the upper trough remains overhead. Water vapor imagery shows three main vorts in the neighborhood (one over the San Joaquin Valley, another along the Oregon/California border, and a third offshore to the west of the Bay Area) that are forecast to re-consolidate off the central California coast later today forming a new closed low that drifts toward SoCal on Wednesday. Snow showers along the crest of the northern Sierra may bring a couple inches of late-season snowfall accumulation to the higher passes. Showers and late day thunderstorms will retreat to the mountains and become less extensive each day beginning Wednesday as the trough shifts east.
Blocking high pressure ridge that had been bringing beautiful, dry weather to southern Wi has finally been nudged farther eastward into the central Great Lakes. Starting out warmer today and with periods of thinner mid-high clouds, bumped up high temperatures several degrees, mainly for inland areas. However chance definitely lower than today as weak short wave ridging spreads across the area, and low level jet refocuses farther west in the plains.
as the gradient tightens a little with low pressure deepening over the Plains and some stronger winds aloft mix down. A ridge of high pressure remains to the east of the region this afternoon while ridging is also occurring aloft. By Wednesday only one or two storms may occur as the ridge is at its strongest. Past mid week the ridge aloft will shift slightly east while a trof moves into the SW states.
315 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Current surface map high pressure across Montana with weak trof from northeast to southwest South Dakota. Another upper low is located over California. With lack of stronger return flow until this afternoon, RAP/NAM may a little on the high side. Upper low shift into eastern Montana on Wednesday. Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains through the Memorial Day weekend.
20Z water vapor imagery continues to show a mean trough over the western U. At the surface, an area of low pressure was analyzed over the OK panhandle with an inverted trough of low pressure extending through eastern NEB. Overall, think convergence along the inverted trough axis to the northwest of the forecast area should be the main focus for redevelopment as low level moisture continues to advect north. Lows tonight should again be in the lower to mid 60s due to cloud cover and the moist airmass remaining over the region. Otherwise convection firing off of the dryline in western Kansas may move into parts of north central Kansas overnight into early Wednesday morning as the low level jet veers across northeast Kansas.
Low pressure will be over the area through Wednesday leading to well below normal temperatures and possible showers over the Sierra and portions of central and southern Nevada. Warmer temperatures return by the end of the week but they will remain below normal.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will maintain quiet conditions across the region through at least mid-week. lows will range from the lower 60s to around 70.
653 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will push east across the region through this afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing up over the ridge, mainly sunny skies are expected today.
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the region for the next several days.
Models show mean high pres ridge just north of the area providing for east to southeast low level flow during this period. most models bring an inverted low level trough westward over the Wrn Atlantic resulting in local low level flow to back somewhat.
612 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday, before shower chances return Wednesday night. Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through most of Wednesday. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge, most of Wednesday should remain dry.
320 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level trough over California. Southerly flow around the low will bring drier air to southern Colorado while southeast to east winds farther north will transport moisture into northeast Colorado. The southerly flow will also likely cause a Denver Cyclone to form. Likely due to convergence along the Denver Cyclone and the east/west boundary. the upper level trough will remain to the west with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over north central and northeast CO.
If a storm can develop, will certainly have the potential of reaching severe levels given the high instability.
647 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region today and early tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
418 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday, before shower chances return Wednesday night. Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through most of Wednesday. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge, most of Wednesday should remain dry.
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this week.
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
Mean upper level trough will continue to impact the region through Wednesday. Disturbances moving through the flow, as well as diurnal heating, will encourage scattered showers each afternoon (mainly over the higher terrain), tapering off each evening.
645 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will move right over the area tonight.
Unsettled weather will continue through Memorial Day weekend as a series of upper level disturbances rotate around a persistent trough over the western U. Expect cooler than normal temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
The low-end severe threat and flooding will be ongoing this morning across north central Kansas. There is a little uncertainty with the placement of this low and could ultimately be a big game changer for our severe potential. Some of the higher resolution models like the NCEP 4 km WRF-NMM has essentially nothing across our forecast area today, which is a little disheartening given the 30-50 PoPs in the forecast at this time indicating thunderstorms today/tonight.
The mid to upper level ridge over northern Mexico will build into south Texas today and translate slowly east through the area on Wednesday. With high humidity and warmer temperatures expected for the western Brush Country. As the upper low over central California early this morning moves east into the desert southwest Wednesday afternoon. low pressure in west Texas will maintain a southerly low level flow of 20-30 knots across south Texas and the nearby coastal waters through Wednesday.
239 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure centered over the forecast area this morning will move off the coast today.
The Saskatchewan Low has begun to retrograde back toward the west and its associated trough will dig back through Montana today and tomorrow; then begin to progress eastward by the end of this forecast period. Basically, we try to time out the influence of the different bands of precipitation spinning around the low center.
High pressure will allow for one more dry day before thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through the Holiday weekend as upper waves interact with an increasingly moist and unstable atmosphere. in the lower to mid 80s.
635 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this week.
Otherwise, a dry day is forecast with the exception of far northwest North Dakota where diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the upper level low. The consensus is for this convection to potentially propagate northeast into western and central North Dakota through the night aided by modest low level warm air advection and moisture transport along and east of the inverted trough extending into southwest North Dakota.
The 00z upper air maps indicate the area remains under large scale southwest flow with the main upper level trough just now coming onshore along the western CONUS.
410 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
413 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Warm and humid conditions continue this morning with temperatures in the low 70s and high clouds moving across SE Texas. Latest surface analysis has weak low pressure in SW Kansas and SE Colorado. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low off the coast of the mid-Atlantic states. Upper level ridging stretched from SE Texas towards the Great Lakes. Another upper level low was organizing over California as a couple lobes of vorticity look to merge.
There could be a few strong storms, with some CAMS highlighting the Highway 20 corridor later this afternoon and evening.
A low pressure trof continues to affect Central and Southwest Montana and water vapor pics show a very moist airmass still moving across the area. Dynamics will remain weak through Wednesday although a disturbance will rotate around the upper level low tonight. Temperatures continue to trend warmer through Wednesday and the airmass again will become unstable during the afternoon. A broad upper level trough remains in place across western N America late this week through the upcoming weekend.
Overnight lows in the lower 70s expected away from the immediate coast with little or no rain chances overnight.
An upper-ridge currently across the region is forecast to migrate east over the next couple of days.
There will be a slightly better chance for a few showers and storms late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in the vicinity of a warm front. A more humid airmass will be in place by then with dew points by then rising through the mid to upper 50's and into the lower 60's. In the near term high pressure will continue to produce mostly clear skies through this evening as suggested by rgnl ir sat trends and 12z guidance time height RH progs.
The ripples of energy from the low will create possible precipitation in the mountains from Tuesday into Wednesday.
The reason for the low confidence in actually getting rainfall over the nw portion of the area will be two fold. The other will be the sfc to mid level ridging found along the gulf coast originating from the 1018mb high over the Carolinas. The strongest subsident drying profile will be found where the ridging is located. the troughing over central Tx will move east just enough to increase our rain chances. the high and associated ridging would deepen over the gulf coast possibly keeping most activity from getting too far east. 35 High pressure over the Carolinas has allowed onshore flow to return.
With high pressure in control. Period begins with upper ridge crossing in the wake of an upper level low pulling away from the New ENgland coast. Once the ridge axis passes Wednesday, weak upper level disturbances in the west to southwest flow in its wake, and increasing warmth moisture in low level south to southwest flow, will lead to an increase in cloudiness, and the shower thunderstorm possibility from the west, by late in the day on Wednesday.
350 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue for the next few days over the central California interior as an upper level trough resides along the west coast.
358 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 The weather of eastern Kentucky will dominated by a ridge of high pressure today and tonight. Low and middle level cloud cover will spread across the region late tonight and tomorrow, as an area of low pressure moves out of the south central plains and toward the western Great Lakes region. Warm front associated with this system will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm formation from around dawn tomorrow and through the day on Wednesday. A summertime regime will be in place for the local area, with mid/upper level ridging over the southeast ConUS, and the main westerlies to our north and west. We will be close enough to the periphery of the ridge that convective precip can not be ruled out.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will continue to dominate the south central plains states through Wed. A strong 500 mb closed low will dig down over the western states. So the persistent mid level ridging will limit the conv potential through Wed. Will nudge up the high temps a few degrees over today and Wed as expect the stronger more southerly flow may increase the high temps a bit due to more downsloping off of the higher terrain in NE Mexico.
633 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure centered over the forecast area this morning will move off the coast today.
High pressure is centered over the Appalachians this morning with an upper level trough just off the east coast and an amplified ridge over the lower Ohio Valley. Southerly winds will continue to usher in warmer and more humid air. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 80s across the region. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the lower to mid 80s again, likely a degree or two warmer than today. However, dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s will make it feel muggier.
/Issued 519 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/ For today, a fairly broad upper level trof over wrn us witll retain SW flow in place across the srn high plains.
621 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the region for the next several days.
Water vapor loop shows the main upper lows rotating over southern Saskatchewan and the West Coast, with southwesterly flow aloft into the Plains. With clouds and precip for a good chunk of the day went a bit cooler for highs on Wednesday with low to mid 70s.
520 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
Surface troffing over the central portion of the country will increase the s-se surface winds later today after sunrise. This combined with daytime heating will mix out the low levels of the atms allowing vfr conditions to prevail through the mid portion of the current taf set. /issued 246 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tranquil forecast for the next 36 hours as H5 ridge dominates South Texas. Low pressure across the Permian Basin will interact with high pressure across the eastern U.
Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to south through the forecast area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area during the evening and continue into the overnight hours.
A short wave mid level ridge axis noses northeast from the western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Valley thru tonight. Overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s interior to upper 60s/lower 70s beaches.
136 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue moving northeastward. High pressure over the Carolinas will move off the southeast coast Tuesday afternoon.
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Upper level heights begin increasing today as the ridge begins building. The low level thicknesses and 850 temps are generally the same as previous runs.
Early this morning, the elongated trough extending from the low pressure center in southern Saskatchewan has moved south, leading to the band of steady precipitation shifting south over west central Montana and parts of central Idaho. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than in previous days as some clearing should allow a slight warm-up.
519 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 For today, a fairly broad upper level trof over wrn us witll retain SW flow in place across the srn high plains.
With the trough continuing to linger over the region Tuesday we will again see some afternoon and evening instability showers mainly over the mountains.
Given the elevated nature of the convection and its ties to the low level jet and location of the best instability across the central/southern Plains I would suspect that this activity will initially propogate toward southwest Missouri this morning, but the residual outflow will help to initiate additional convection further northeast along and south of I-70 this afternoon as the atmosphere diurnally destabilizes.
Still looking at highs in the low to mid 80s today (increased confidence based on yesterdays results at FNT/MBS) with strengthening low level southwest flow ahead of a cold front. helping to flatten the upper level ridge in place slightly. with some semblance of upper level ridge re-establishing itself during the day. and probably will have to wait until Wednesday night when warm front and better surge of moisture arrives from the Midwest to support scattered-numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. temperatures should have no problem rising at least in the lower 80s. Southern Lower Michigan then looks to be caught in between upper level ridge along the Eastern Seaboard with trough out over the Rockies.
dry and warm day for the region with high temperatures into the lower 80s. An upper level ridge will remain over the area and help limit any chances for storms.
Today Through Wednesday Night A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low over the east coast and over the northwest U. then the ridge shifts slightly eastward. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will push east across the region through this afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing up over the ridge, mainly sunny skies are expected today.
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region today and early tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
slightly warmer temps are expected. Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains through the Memorial Day weekend.
102 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 An upper level low will gradually move northeast rest of tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build in and influence the weather through the weekend with above normal temperatures. A cut off upper low will move offshore overnight. High pressure will begin to build into the area with winds decoupling. This will allow for radiational cooling and temps to drop into the low 50s inland to mid 50s along the beaches.
322 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the region for the next several days.
A weak low pressure system will bring a slight chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two to our region tomorrow.
Much of Tuesday morning looks dry but pops are reintroduced again Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure trough continues to deepen across the central High Plains with continued southwesterly mid level flow over our region.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the southeast states in the wake of the departing northeast U. With the ridge building to the north, a predominant easterly flow will be in place, allowing the Atlantic sea breeze to move well into the interior this afternoon.
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 New Aviation Discussion A broad low pressure system will remain over the region into midweek for breezy winds and below normal temperatures.