Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Have a Dewpoints have dropped into the 40s across much of the area, and will little cloud cover many spots will see lows cooler tonight than last night. A weak dissipating cold front will move into the area tonight but not have any real impact on the local weather. An approaching mid level short wave trough and associated cold front will bring an increase in cloudiness along with a chance of showers, mainly well after midnight. Enough forcing and moisture should linger into the afternoon to spawn some lightning as lapse rates steepen, owing to falling heights and cooler air aloft through the base of the trough.
356 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level ridge will shift east across the western states today. This will bring warmer and drier air to the area today. Cumulus clouds will form over the higher terrain during the afternoon. With the warmer airmass moving in and less cloud cover, it will be warmer today with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. the upper ridge of high pressure shifts east into the central plains states. a moist south to southeasterly flow ahead of a surface lee trough.
The thermal trough will set up near the ID/OR border for hot afternoon temps, especially in the Treasure Valley where highs will be in the upper 90s to around 100F. Meanwhile, moisture ahead of an upper trough near the PacNW coast combined with the afternoon heat will initiate showers and thunderstorms. The upper trough will move through the area tonight, along with a cold front, leading to cooler temperatures and mostly dry weather on Tuesday.
Fair weather is expected through Monday, featuring a clear/mostly clear sky and afternoon highs ranging from the low-mid-80s north to mid-upper 80s south (F).
The triple digit heat will take a break from the region for much of the upcoming week, as trough passage across the Pacific Northwest today squashes the ridge axis to near the U.
642 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. High pressure centered across the Mississippi valley is providing a mostly clear morning. Temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Tuesday afternoon will be dry with highs again in the lower to mid 70s.
352 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper level high pressure ridge over the region will bring hot and dry conditions to Montana today. A surface cold front sweeps across the state overnight for showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures expected Tuesday.
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will settle over the eastern Carolinas tonight. A second cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. Therefore have lows in the lower 60s and perhaps a few upper 50s back across the northwest and upper 60s in the southeast. Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal for this time of year, ranging from the lower-middle 80s. The approach of a mid level s/w and attendant sfc front Monday night will keep the low level atmosphere stirred-up enough to prohibit full cooling potential.
Many across the high terrain will wake to temperatures in the mid 50s. High pressure will continue to build into the area from the north and west through the period.
446 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. High pressure centered across the Mississippi valley is providing a mostly clear morning. Temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Tuesday afternoon will be dry with highs again in the lower to mid 70s.
607 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday.
But with moisture in place and temperatures expected to also exceed much of the guidance and both the ECMWF and GFS indicating weak instability rounding the ridge in northwest flow we may see scattered showers and thunderstorms by mid afternoon as weak surface convergence sets up essentially along the I27 corridor.
154 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Cooler through Tuesday with upper level disturbances providing a few light showers, even a thunderstorm. Dry midweek under high pressure. A cold front and upper level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below normal temperatures and dry weather.
A trough approaching the central west coast will push much drier mid-level air into the region starting today. This trough will move into the Great Basin later today and Tuesday, flattening the stubborn high amplitude ridge over the region and increasing southwest winds. Although heat products will not be active, keep in mind that we will only be about 5-10 degrees from the high temperatures experienced for the last several days.
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A weak cold front moving across this morning will be followed by another one later today.
A deep broad trough remains over the western CONUS.
A cold upper trough will move into Utah starting tonight.
Aloft - Ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and FL slips west as a trough initially from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South slides to the eastern seaboard. Surface - Broad high pressure sprawling across the southeastern U. and into the Gulf continues as a weak trough eases across the southern half of the state. The higher moisture along with the trough will support lower rain chances for the southeast and southern counties in the afternoons. a couple of degrees for the lows and 2 to 3 degrees for the highs.
The high resolution models do indicate a potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The pattern aloft is still expected to develop into an upper trough across LA into SE Texas with an upstream high pressure ridge over N Texas into the Hill Country.
With skies clearing behind the cold front in broad subsidence expect considerable sunshine today with low level winds mixing to the surface.
A transition into much more fall-like weather will occur this week as a cooler air mass sweeps in.
Some redevelopment may occur along the cold front later this morning and early afternoon mostly south and east of Eau Claire before drier air reaches the entire CWA by mid afternoon. Low level moisture will return rather quickly with the cold front washing out over southern Iowa and southern Wisconsin tonight.
A cooler, and very dry airmass will work into the area today. This will be while an area high pressure skirts across Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. The strongest winds will be behind the exiting area of high pressure, with some gusts in the 20 mph range across central South Dakota this afternoon. The 500mb low over much of southwestern Canada will shift across Saskatchewan with the trough focusing over the Pacific Northwest, and strong southwesterly flow set up from California through the Northern Plains and Ontario by daybreak Thursday.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A cooler, and very dry airmass will work into the area today. This will be while an area high pressure skirts across Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. The strongest winds will be behind the exiting area of high pressure, with some gusts in the 20 mph range across central South Dakota this afternoon. The 500mb low over much of southwestern Canada will shift across Saskatchewan with the trough focusing over the Pacific Northwest, and strong southwesterly flow set up from California through the Northern Plains and Ontario by daybreak Thursday.
An elongated upper ridge axis will become more prominent from the southern Plains up through the Great Lakes today. Meanwhile, lingering moisture associated with a weak upper low over central OH will only very slowly push east. Upper ridge strengthens and becomes a bit more established over the area tonight into Thursday. Reluctant to mention any pops given the pattern recognition with a strengthening upper ridge, but there will be some instability.
Should see steady west winds move in this morning for areas east of the Red River Valley, which will help push out the lower clouds left there.
642 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Warmup should get going in earnest today, as a thermal ridge aloft builds east into the Mississippi Valley. This is just ahead of the cold front, which will be moving east today but will run into the building ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Upper level ridge will become firmly entrenched over the central and eastern U. Have gone on the higher end of the model guidance for high temperatures, mainly low-mid 90s through the weekend.
650 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A cold front was moving through the area at 07Z and will continue to push southeast gradually slowing and stalling after 12Z as it reaches eastern Iowa and northeast Kansas. General features of the upper pattern show little change from earlier runs except being a bit slower with the transition of the western trough eastward.
1100 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Deep upper trough will remain over the PAC NW through most of the work week, with this system finally pushing east by the weekend. Strong Fujiwara type trough on the southern periphery is in the process of rotating south into the west coast.
Precipitation will continue through the day into tonight, as the region remains under a dominant trough pattern.
A large upper level low will maintain a chance of showers and cooler temperatures over Western Washington through Thursday.
Drier conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend as upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION>>> Weak mid level low over Central Ohio to continue to weaken and open up as ridging builds into the west. An precipitation that develops will diminish by mid to late afternoon as the mid level ridge builds into the west. Mid level ridge to build into the Great Lakes through the end of the week. Lows to range from the lower to middle 60s. With ridge in place expect general subsidence Thursday. Robust ridge building at the surface and aloft will dictate weather conditions through the period.
646 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 High pressure in control again through the TAF period with VFR prevailing. Today Through Thursday Night The large scale pattern remains fairly unchanged this morning with upper ridging still firmly entrenched from the Gulf northeastward to the Great Lakes. Under this regime, warmer than average temperatures are expected through the period with most locations reaching the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon.
Left highs in the lower 90s and made slight adjustments to pops. /EC/ High pressure at the surface will remain over the forecast area. However, heights aloft will fall over the region during the period as an upper trough to our east is forecast to slowly slide southwest, thus undercutting high pressure aloft to our north. Afternoon heat index values will climb up around the century mark, primarily Thursday, as dew points sit in the low and middle 70s.
The upstream line of storms will diminish as it moves in from the west this morning, with more storms likely later this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves into the area. Low pressure will drag a cold front into the forecast area by this evening, with the front hanging up over the southeast tonight. Forecast confidence is medium: The stalled cold front will continue to weaken across southern Wisconsin Thursday morning. We'll be beneath large scale ridging aloft, so there will be virtually no support for lift other than the weakening front.
/issued 314 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected with a weak upper level trough approaching from the west interacting with the seabreeze this afternoon.
A cold upper trough will move into Utah starting tonight. Mostly sunny skies are in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning, as the area is in a break between the departing trough now over the Great Plains, and a colder trough digging through the Pacific Northwest. The cold front looks to enter northern Utah this evening, then very slowly push across the northern half of the CWA through tonight and Thursday.
At the sfc a Denver Cyclone will be in place thru the day with gusty sly winds occurring by midday across the plains which will continue into the early evening hours. Over the higher terrain the flow aloft will not be as stg as yesterday so winds gusts will mainly be in the 30-40 mph range.
Some of the CAMs indicate scattered convective development across parts of our area by late this afternoon, but weak ridge developing aloft will be a negative factor. A few thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain of southwest Texas and move east-northeast into the southwestern part of our area by this evening. Warm and humid conditions are expected tonight with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Dry conditions will last through Thursday while cooler air gradually filters into the region. A strong and expansive area of low pressure will begin to affect the Desert Southwest Thursday night, lasting into this weekend.
/issued 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South for at least the next seven days. The ridge will actually strengthen over the area through the end of the week. Highs will be in the lower 90s through at least the early part of the weekend. Highs may drop a tad ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather over Deep South Texas today, with isolated to scattered convective activity possible. /issued 430 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): There will be a sense of weather deja vu today as the warm and humid air mass remains in place with high pressure ridging aloft. For Thursday, the pattern begins to shift a little as the subtropical ridge flattens and elongates over the Texas and the Gulf. As this occurs, a lobe of low pressure will stretch across the northern Gulf coast with an uptick of moisture possible across the Texas Coastal Bend region.
Also, a very weak 8h trof/convergence zone clips far NW AL into southwest TN, so will keep SCHC going there as well.
1236 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A weak upper level low will fill and slide SE as high pressure builds over the area tonight. The high pressure will remain anchored over the area through the weekend. Weak upper low will kick off a few showers/tsra this afternoon away from the lake. The weak upper level low will fill and slide SE tonight as upper ridge begins to build in. Expect more sun tomorrow with temps into the lower to mid 80s as upper level ridge builds in. Summer-like conditions will be in place to end the week as the ridge strengthens aloft, extending well north of the Great Lakes.
Short wave trough will remain to the west of most of the region today, stretching from Western Lake Erie southward through Central/Western Ohio and into Kentucky. Warm mid levels and subsidence should keep activity suppressed to the east of the trough. Upper level ridging will become even more firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes through the end of the week as a deep trough digs over the Western U.
A small upper level low pressure system over Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas had a short wave trough of low pressure that extended Southwest across East and Northeast Texas and to the middle and upper Texas Coast. Earlier a few showers had developed near and ahead of the base of the trough across parts of Southeast Texas just South of Toledo Bend Lake and the East Texas Lakes Area, but those have weakened. With afternoon heating and available moisture there could be additional development of convection during the remainder of the day for areas to the East of this upper low and trough with higher chances from the coast across Northwest and North Central Louisiana and South Central Arkansas.
Temps are quickly climbing and will reach the lower 90s this afternoon with heat index values around 100F. If this occurs the activity would probably weaken as it pushes into the upper ridge. /issued 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South for at least the next seven days. The ridge will actually strengthen over the area through the end of the week. Highs will be in the lower 90s through at least the early part of the weekend. Highs may drop a tad ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
1120 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Showers are already developing just outside our area in SW VA and srn WV, associated with an upper level low that will be drifting SE through the day.
920 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A weak upper level low will fill and slide SE as high pressure builds over the area tonight. The high pressure will remain anchored over the area through the weekend. Weak upper low will kick off a few showers/tsra this afternoon away from the lake. The weak upper level low will fill and slide SE tonight as upper ridge begins to build in. Expect more sun tomorrow with temps into the lower to mid 80s as upper level ridge builds in. Summer-like conditions will be in place to end the week as the ridge strengthens aloft, extending well north of the Great Lakes.
TFJ Large upper low spinning over western Canada this morning. Western portion of the trof digs south toward the Great Basin for upper flow turning to the southwest overnight. Directly behind it a large trough stretches from central California through Idaho, Alberta, and northern Saskatchewan. Behind that a large ridge resides over the Gulf of Alaska. The coldest air of the northern hemisphere sets over the Arctic Ocean just north of the Alaskan North Slope with modified arctic air making incursions into the trough over the Northwest territories.
High pressure with a relaxed gradient will dominate the waters through the end of the week with benign conditions expected.
Similar weather conditions are expected on Thursday with better coverage of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of Interstate 35 as a result on a mid-level inverted trough pushing westward from the upper Texas coast into our area.
Beginning tomorrow, a deep upper level low drops into the western half of the U. This low will both pull gulf moisture back into our entire CWA and provide the needed instability to create scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon, aided by the movement of the cold front. Showers continuing today, with a cold front passage this afternoon. A cold front will move through the area today, entering southeast Oregon this morning and southwest Idaho this afternoon. More noticeable snow is forecast for the higher elevations of Baker County and the west- central and Boise Mountains, with 2 to 6 inches possible above around 7500 feet.
A mean layer trough axis stretched southward from Hurricane Jose down the Atlantic seaboard and across SE GA. This weak trough axis in addition to elevated moisture content combined with daytime heating will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers and isolated tstorms across SE GA and along and north of the I-10 corridor in NE Florida, especially later this afternoon and early evening when the sea breezes will converge inland with the front, between Highway 301 and I-75. Temperatures will rise near to just above highs realized yesterday with maxes in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s coast where the east coast sea breeze will bring relief mid afternoon.
737 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Aviation A weak area of high pressure will track through the region today providing the area with mainly dry conditions after a foggy start. Tonight a cold front will be weakening as it tracks in from the northwest. Tonight the cold front that featured an active line of storms yesterday in the Upper Plains. The low level thermal ridge folds in as well.
Along the periphery of the storm, sinking motion will continue to hold high pressure in place, both at the surface and aloft. very little change in the forecast or grids as we continue under the warm and dry ridge.
924 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Taking a look at the latest model guidance and radar trends this morning, opted to raise POP's across much of the area as a weak upper level trough is progged to move across the northern gulf coast. /issued 314 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected with a weak upper level trough approaching from the west interacting with the seabreeze this afternoon.
Warmup should get going in earnest today, as a thermal ridge aloft builds east into the Mississippi Valley. This is just ahead of the cold front, which will be moving east today but will run into the building ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Upper level ridge will become firmly entrenched over the central and eastern U. Have gone on the higher end of the model guidance for high temperatures, mainly low-mid 90s through the weekend.
Water vapor imagery and RAP 250 mb height analysis indicates an upper level trough stretching from central Cuba to the NW Bahamas with mid to upper level dry air noted near the upper Keys and off the SE FL coast. At the surface a weak frontal trough will drop into south FL toward evening north of the forecast area but not have an impact on today's dry forecast.
627 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A cold front is very evident on radar this morning displaying itself as a fine line from eastern Nebraska through north central Kansas and into southwestern Kansas.
The pressure pattern continues to be weak with just a hint of an easterly gradient due to a high pressure ridge to our north. Low level moisture is still high with surface dew points in the lower-mid 70s, but morning soundings at Cape Canaveral and Tampa had below normal precipitable water, 1. The pressure pattern will be rather light due to a weak high pressure ridge over and just north of the waters.
East of the front, dewpoints once again reach into the low 70s leading to another hot and muggy day. Low temperatures range from the mid- 60s in north central Kansas to the low 70s in east central Kansas. Return flow quickly establishes on Thursday behind the front so temperatures will be warm once again with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Daytime temperatures should warm into the low to mid 90s.
Additional showers are expected with an upper level low moving over southeastern WA today. The colder air aloft from the low and dynamic lift from the jet max may trigger a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
A low pressure system will bring strong and gusty winds to the area Thursday into the weekend.
Slightly better chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist on Thursday with a weak upper trough nearby. Drier mid level air advects across the region through the weekend as upper level ridging becomes a little more dominant. Kept a slight chance to chance through the weekend as the low level moisture is progged to remain sufficient for an active sea breeze. A potent upper level low is progged to move across the western U.
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 With skies clearing behind the cold front in broad subsidence expect considerable sunshine today with low level winds mixing to the surface.
This will also bring much warmer 7h temperatures eastern into the southern Plains.