Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cut-off low over southern Oregon and Northern California continues to drive moisture into central Idaho and western Montana early this morning. As the low moves north east today, this dry air will cause a break in the rain for many locations later this morning and much of today. Friday the system progress east with the low remaining south of Montana.
300 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
Some increase in high cloud expected today, but skies will remain clear within the lowest 5000 ft. Forecast soundings for today look stable and very warm, with H850 temps in the 14-16C degree range and H925 temps in the low 20s, as we reside on the south side of the frontal boundary stalled over northern Michigan and Lake Huron. Did not go with forecast temps quite as high as MET guidance with potential for high clouds, but forecast temps are now in the low 80s for the Thumb and Saginaw Valley ranging to the mid/upper 80s for the rest of the area.
Concern then turns toward upper low spinning over the northwest US. Narrow tongue of around 1KJ/kg MUCAPE develops due to low level theta-e ridge.
242 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low Pressure remains off the Carolina coast while high pressure is centered over Maine.
324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 The first day of fall will be far from cool with afternoon highs reaching the lower and middle 90s. Dry air and subsidence underneath the upper ridge will keep precipitation chances very low today. Low level moisture will be on the increase tonight in response to a developing low pressure system across the west.
Friday, the downstream ridge across the plains and mid MS river valley will amplify as the upper trough across the western US deepens.
500mb ridging will strengthen today across the northern plains in response to strong upper low over the western US. Models continue to come into better agreement with the timing and evolution of the upper low and subsequent precipitation potential.
401 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Upper ridge remains center over TX with an upper trough/low extending down the West Coast.
Overall the pattern through the end of this week is dominated by a high pressure ridge over the region which will promote deeper afternoon mixing and highs topping out in the mid 90s (about 10 degrees above normal). Lighter wind speeds will limit fire weather concerns over the next few days, however warmer and drier than normal conditions will further dry out dead fuels and stressed vegetation.
101 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 High pressure remains in control throughout the TAF period, resulting in another stretch of VFR conditions.
411 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Southwest to slight ridging remain at 500MB across the Northern Plains as a 500MB low moves across the Pacific Northwest. High pressure over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will keep a ridge extended over much of our area through tonight. Warmer air and breezy east to southeasterly winds will surge in Friday into Friday night as a warm front crosses. With some improved mixing as the lower clouds exit, we could mix into the 30 to near 35kt 900MB winds. The low level jet will strengthen Friday night to 40-45kts above the inversion.
139 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 A surface pressure trough near the coast and upper low over the area will persist through Thursday. These features will weaken Friday as an upper ridge builds over the region.
457 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Upper level pattern continues to maintain ridge axis over central Texas with cirrus spilling down through the Red River Valley and across the Ark-La-Tex. Expect these high clouds to be a bit more extensive today, but this will do very little to inhibit heating as temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon. A pattern shift is coming however as a deep upper trough now over the Pacific NW digs into the Intermountain West and the Rockies over the next 24-48 hours.
1028 PM PDT Wed Sep 21 2016 Unsettled weather is expected late today through Thursday as a large area of low pressure slowly moves by the region. Then by Friday and through the weekend, high pressure will arrive with less wind, warmer and dry weather. Large closed low near Medford, Oregon this evening with a plume of moisture being drawn north ahead of it across extreme SE Washington, Idaho Panhandle, and western Montana. Overnight into Thursday morning another wave coming around the low moves north out of Oregon into SE Washington giving the Pullman and Lewiston areas as well as locations south of our area (Tri Cities) the best chance for rain showers.
334 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low pressure will linger off the South Carolina coast through Friday.
403 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep or weather warm and dry into the weekend. Late Friday, and Friday night, a mid-level trough will swing through New England, and push a frontal boundary south across the Upper Ohio Valley.
256 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep or weather warm and dry into the weekend. Late Friday, and Friday night, a mid-level trough will swing through New England, and push a frontal boundary south across the Upper Ohio Valley.
An area of low pressure in the Central Plains had a trough/stationary front extending to northwest Wisconsin as of early this morning, and it could be the trigger for showers and some thunder today. Highs today will be in the lower 60s. Lows will range the lower 40s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the southern forecast area. Friday's highs will be in the lower 60s.
The upper level ridge will remain anchored over Texas resulting in dry weather and light south to southeast winds around 10 mph or less. Afternoon highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s, dropping to around 70 for lows tomorrow morning.
The Autumnal Equinox at 1021 this morning marks the start of Aloft - A ridge centered over the southern plains sprawled to the central Gulf coast while a closed low was above coastal NC/SC. Surface - High pressure in New England ridged southwestward to the southern plains. a low offshore SC trailed a trough across north FL that reached across the Gulf. and weak Atlantic high pressure stretched across the Bahamas to south FL coastal waters. The upper ridge builds northward and eases eastward along the Gulf coast while the low aloft the Carolina becomes an open trough. a couple of degrees for the highs and 2 to 4 degrees for the lows.
407 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
146 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday. A cold front will move into the Great Lakes on Friday then sag south of the area by Friday night.
340 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
The fog may be more persistent and cover more areal extent across east central Wyoming into the northern 2/3 of the Nebraska panhandle, with more patchy coverage to the south of a Wheatland-Scottsbluff-Bridgeport line. Otherwise mainly dry weather expected across the plains tonight into Friday with the best forcing looking to remain out west closer to the upper low. Showers that form there will move generally northward as the upper flow becomes more southerly as the low digs into Nevada. Better chances for showers reach the plains later Friday and Friday night as the upper low turns northeast and the better forcing shifts east over the high plains. Some cooler air should filter into southeast Wyoming Friday but may not get into the Panhandle until later that day.
300 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016 Early morning RAP and satellite analysis show a large scale trough over the western US, with a closed center near the California/Oregon border. Ridging extends across the central US into the Northern Rockies, with SW flow over the intermountain West. WAA south of this feature should support highs in the 90s, while north highs may struggle to reach the low 80s (depending on cloud cover). Friday-Friday night: Large scale forcing increases with entrance region of jet ahead of large scale trough transitioning over our CWA. Biggest question is going to be low level moisture along/east of this trough and impact on instability. NAM currently shows ML CAPE around 1500 J/KG which could be sufficient for an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms considering the very high shear values ahead of trough (50kt+ effective shear values).
Light easterly flow in the low-levels should keep any low clouds mainly scattered through early this morning. It does appear the low-levels will moisten sufficiently late in the period for our 30 hour TAFs to warrant the possibility of MVFR cigs returning. With the predominant H5 high pressure center firmly placed over the state of Texas, large scale descent continues to dominate the region.
The upper level low pres system that has brought showers and thunderstorms the past few days will move se into NV today, then off to the east Friday.
With swly winds returning, temps may be a couple of degrees warmer. Tilly Upper level ridge to remain over region through Friday night, so dry and above normal conditions expected.
A strong low pressure system moving north of the area will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms, cooler temperatures and gusty winds at times through Friday. Latest high resolution models show that a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be developing out ahead of a cold front moving into western Arizona. Isolated showers mainly from Tucson east on Friday as the upper level trof pushes across the area. Cooler Friday with highs 6-10 degrees cooler for areas from Tucson east.
204 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
Otherwise, another quiet night shaping up across the tri-state area with lows in the low 70s. A weak upper low just over Eastern South Carolina will slowly drift westward into Friday before dissipating. By Friday afternoon, a large ridge should begin building into the western half of the region, as the local airmass begins to dry out heading into the weekend.
A cool low pressure system will be moving through the Great Basin. Some of this moisture may get entrained into the moist low pressure system and enhance precipitation values along our border with Utah over the next couple days. A positive- tilt Pacific trough is encroaching upon the Pacific Northwest CONUS. Central low pressure will be rapidly moving across the west to reposition over Nevada by late Thursday. A cold front will be making its way through the state on Thursday.
144 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure builds over the area through Thursday, then begins to slide offshore Thursday night. A cold front will approach from the north on Friday, and pass through late day Friday into Friday night.
The low level flow will increase from the Southeast this afternoon which will scour out the stratus over the Front Range by later this morning. This low level flow will result in a Denver Cyclone which may allow enough convergence to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms by later in the day. At 12z Friday morning, an upper trough and closed low is over Utah.
333 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Strong upper level ridge will remain over the region today and tonight. Best chance for storms will be over the higher terrain to the south and southwest of Denver. Gusty winds will be the main threat with the storms today due to the higher cloud bases. A cold front will enter northeast Colorado after midnight. This will bring cooler conditions for Wednesday. A broad ridge of high pressure will allow for warmer than normal temperatures to continue through the period. Similar to yesterday the airmass will be fairly stable across the northeast plains on Wednesday following the passage of a weak cold front Tuesday night. The flow aloft will be west/southwesterly on Wednesday with the ridge centered over TX.
A warm front may result in a round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening with the potential for some stronger storms Wednesday night. There is growing concern for severe weather potential late in the day Wednesday as a warm front pushes into Lower Michigan from southwest to northeast. Models are trending ever-so-slightly northward with a warm frontal boundary stretching from the Illinois/Wisconsin border, eastward to Northern Indiana Wednesday afternoon. As the low tracks eastward over the northern periphery of the ridge, the right entrance region of the upper jet core pushes through Lower Michigan.
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 212200- Weather Summary for the local Tri-State Region 349 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will slowly cross the Tri-State through tonight, bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with it early this morning and then again late this afternoon and early this evening. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday, then slides offshore Wednesday night.
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the four corners region through the end of the week with an occasional wobble to the east.
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes will move through the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon and evening. High pressure will pass to the north Wednesday.
1145 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2016 Aviation section updated Satellite imagery this evening shows upper level low center now moving onto the WA coast with weakly diffluent SW flow aloft ahead of it spreading across the Northern Rockies. The disturbance continues eastward through Montana on Tuesday with an associated surface cold front sweeping across central/north central Montana during the afternoon. Convective activity is expected mainly ahead of and with the passage of the surface cold front while gusty west winds develop behind the front.
408 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Weather maps show a very large deep layer ridge dominating much of the CONUS from California to the southern Appalachians. To get an idea how strong this ridge is from a climate perspective. the highest geo-potential heights in the ridge axis (595 to 600 deca- meters) over the Desert Southwest and southern Plains stands at roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations above the mean. a broadening high pressure area becomes aligned across the Central Gulf Coast. The eastern flank of the deep layer ridge sets up over the local area in the near term. A mix of sun and clouds are forecast into the afternoon as higher level moisture from decaying convection over the Ohio River Valley spreads southward around the upper ridge.
407 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Upper ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Southwest U. Over the next couple of days, heights decrease in the ridge.
Even as onshore flow slackened, slight veering in the low levels could allow for a small chance of a late night coastal shower moving onshore the far SE Treasure coast (Martin/St Lucie cos. Fairly strong deep layer ridging will extend west-east from the Desert Southwest to across the Gulf Coast States/Southeast U. Weak east-west oriented surface ridging will remain across the central FL peninsula providing for a light, low-level easterly flow on Wed with winds veering to the southeast Wed night into Thu.
Dry cold front has passed through most of our CWA tonight as evidenced by a wind shift to the west. Expect sunny, breezy, and cooler post-frontal weather today as the supporting upper trough swings eastward across northern Idaho. Flat ridging followed by southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Wednesday will bring several degrees warming again Wednesday before the next upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska nears the northwest coast.
356 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Upper level analysis has large ridge across much of the CONUS with ridge axis across the Northern Great Plains. At the surface, low/lee trof is located across central Montana with high pressure across the eastern Dakotas. Highs will rise back into the 90s across much of the plains as southerly winds bring warmer and moister air into the area. Strong cold front passage later tonight will bring brisk northwesterly winds with gusts to 40 mph for a period, especially across the plains in the lee of the Black Hills. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only expected to be in the 80s.
246 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Blow off mid to high clouds from convection occurring across Missouri with a back door cold front will continue to spread across the Mid-South over the next couple of hours. If the clouds hang on a good part of the day, it could keep highs a tad cooler as well as limit any pop up diurnal convection. Expect the best chance for rain will occur across portions of West Tennessee this afternoon from convection that develops ahead of the approaching back door cold front. The front will make it as far south as Western Kentucky this evening before lifting back to the north as the upper ridge strengthens over the Mid-South. The ridge also should be strong enough to prevent any diurnal convection from developing.
525 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected part of today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
309 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will extend across much of the southern half of the U. and Canada border and drag a weak cold front across the northern Rockies and brush the northern CO and UT borders this afternoon and evening.
156 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest this week resulting in hot and dry conditions with afternoon and evening breezes. Large scale pattern remains persistent with a longwave trough over the northeast Pacific and a building ridge over the Southwest.
645 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will cross the southern half of central PA by midday.
Currently, a closed upper low is situated off the Pacific Northwest Coast of Washington with downstream ridging over the northern Rockies. High pressure is situated over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas with abundant sunshine and generally light winds over the forecast area. Forecast NAM/GFS soundings are quite impressive over eastern Montana and far western ND but become capped by the time you move much farther east past the highway 85 corridor. A possible second area of development would be farther north in far northeast MT or Saskatchewan, associated with the stronger forcing of the upper low, and then tracking across southern Saskatchewan and/or northern ND. Given the strength of the upper low and rapid destabilization Tuesday afternoon, think the amount of cape/shear possible would justify a mention of possibly severe wording in the west Tuesday afternoon and evening.
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 (Today and Tonight) Benign weather expected today across West Central Texas as high pressure aloft dominates. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s, with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
330 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure results in above average temperatures across interior NorCal this week. Little change in the overall pattern expected for interior NorCal the next couple of days as the region will remain between strong high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a low dropping southward along the BC coast.
1222 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Under a quiet high pressure night, the forecast is on track, so no changes planned at this time. For tonight, cool and dry high pressure was over the region late this afternoon and will build slowly east through the night into Tuesday. These southeast winds will bring in warmer air along with mostly sunny skies. The models all show the upper level low pressure area spinning off the Pacific Northwest coast late this afternoon kicking northeast and then east along the Canadian border tonight through Tuesday night. Thus, Wednesday should be cooler with northwest winds, clouds, along with precipitation mainly east in the region. Cool Canadian high pressure will build in again on Wednesday night with clearing skies and light winds bringing another cool night.
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will finish crossing the local area this morning. Weak high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
311 AM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016 High pressure aloft will bring hot weather to southern New Mexico and west Texas through the coming weekend with temperatures remaining above normal. Very broad upper ridge axis was located along the Colorado-New Mexico border area this morning and is expected to drift very slowly southward.
127 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Dry high pressure over the area will settle a bit farther southeastward overnight.
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will finish exiting before dawn, taking lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms away with it. Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday with dry weather.
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 The massive southwest upper level anticyclone will recenter across north Texas late today. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen slightly today in response to low pressure moving from southwest Washington this morning to the northern high plains by this evening. The massive upper level ridge will reposition itself to the east of the region and become more elongated.
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will move down from the Upper Great Lakes overnight and become nearly stationary near the Maryland border on Tuesday. High pressure should make Wednesday dry.
519 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof dominating much of eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
Weak high pressure will build over the region today bringing a return to dry conditions through Wednesday.
403 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Convection continues to develop across parts of eastern Nebraska, southwest IA and northwest MO in a zone of 850 mb moisture convergence on the nose of a southwesterly low level jet, and also along the western extent of a cold front that has become stationary and along an outflow boundary from earlier convection. Should have slightly cooler high temperatures behind the front across northeast MO and west central IL, but also further south as well due to cloud cover and precipitation.
407 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A deep layer high pressure ridge over the Southern Plains will slowly drift eastward over the remainder of the week.
These locales are seeing temps in the lower to mid 80s. H5/H7 ridging over the Plains Region returns in force to the area. Downslope conditions from the upper level ridging will add to the heating effects for the area.
328 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 Upper-level flow will become north-northwesterly today as the broad upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region continues to expand eastward. Height rises will be in place across the area on Wednesday as the broad upper-level ridge continue to expand eastward across the southern US. Convection should continue to be suppressed due to the dry air mass in place and the presence of warm air aloft associated with the ridge.
Tomorrow, mid-level high pressure becoming re-established over the aerodromes will continue the VFR trend with scattered high cloudiness and onshore moderate winds. Moving into Tuesday, midlevel ridging centered over the four corners area will begin to build into Deep South Texas, with drier and hotter conditions returning.
The forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of a sprawling upper level ridge that is currently over the western United States. With surface ridging building over the area, winds will gradually take on more of a southerly component, bringing with it more moisture. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, and lows will be increasing from the upper 60s Tuesday morning to low 70s area wide for Wednesday morning.
511 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A cold front will cross the southern half of central PA by midday.