Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface map this afternoon shows a ridge of high pressure situated just east of Middle Tennessee with a warm front stretched along the Ohio Valley to out north.
703 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 A closed upper low will move from eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma panhandle overnight. The highest pops forecast tonight are near 40 percent across the southwestern tier of counties. The upper low will move east across the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Highs were raised to the warmer CONSMOS guidance from the upper 60s to near 70.
Utilized a blend of cooler NBM and bias corrected Mos for lows tonight. On Thursday, quiet weather is expected as upper ridge to the west pushes east towards our area. Slightly warmer temperatures expected.
511 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof axis that brought last nights/this mornings rain shifting into the eastern Dakotas/upper midwest, with upper ridge building eastward through the northern Rockies.
945 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017 Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Big Bend region of Florida, and resultant srly flow around it is leading to lower cloud development across the swrn zones and points wwd this evening. Upper low continues across the southern plains this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing along the dryline out in west Texas. The upper low and associated cold front is still forecast to translate to the east over the next several days.
1024 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof axis that brought last nights/this mornings rain shifting into the eastern Dakotas/upper midwest, with upper ridge building eastward through the northern Rockies.
The main area of rain will be moving out of ern WI as the low to mid level warm, moist advection and frontogenesis moves east. The low Cigs and vsbys will linger into the daylight hours on Thu but skies should become scattered over ern WI by late morning while the Cigs will rise to 3.
901 PM MST Wed May 10 2017 A low pressure system will clear the region tonight leaving mostly sunny skies and a substantial warming trend starting Thursday. DISCUSSION The latest upper air analysis shows the center of the upper low continues to push east through northeastern New Mexico and into the southern plains. High pressure is beginning to build into the region which will usher in sunny skies and much warmer temperatures with highs near 90 degrees for Thursday.
/ISSUED 715 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017/ Moist southeasterly flow continues with falling out of the lower 80s at 7 pm. Temperatures still plenty warm overnight tonight with lows only falling into the lower 70s inland with the presence of the cloud cover and winds overnight.
924 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Ridge of high pressure over the local area at this time will continue to move east tonight. Low pressure will move east across northern Ohio Thursday morning and then to the Carolina coast by Thursday night.
1018 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017 UPDATED AVIATION Upper level ridging over the Northern Rocky Mountains will keep dry and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions intact overnight.
221 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will deepen across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the associated cold front moving southeast and crossing the Mid-Atlantic Region tonight and Saturday.
407 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather today through Sunday.
257 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A low risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist on Saturday before less humid and slightly cooler air ends the threat on Sunday. The high-res models focus pcpn activity over NW PA this morning before pushing southeast during the early to mid afternoon. A significant push of drier, less humid air with below normal PW values will arrive tonight as high pressure slides east from the Midwest. Clear skies along with the relatively low dewpoint air will result in a refreshingly cooler night with minimum temps ranging from the mid-upper 40s NW to upper 50s-near 60F in the SE. Expect a pleasant/comfortable (low-humidity) and rain-free end to the weekend with high pressure in control.
Through the weekend, energy ejecting from a strong Gulf of Alaska low will impact the high amplitude ridge downstream across Rockies. This will effectively flattening the four-corners ridge enough to shift the upper flow to a more north-northwesterly direction for the Panhandle and South Plains. The ridge axis though looks to remain a force to be reckoned with as it aligns across a good chunk of the South Plains until the center is moved further south and weakens further Sunday. This should place the axis of the ridge more firmly atop the southern High Plains and bring back drier and slightly warmer weather.
249 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Showers with the chance of thunderstorms will move through this morning in association with a cold front. Cold front over western NY will drop south and east this morning bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Secondary upper wave and heating instability may linger a few showers, especially over the higher terrain, through the day. Sfc temps will rise fairly quickly after sunrise as a mid-lvl ridge nudges in from the south. This mid-lvl ridge will be just enough of an influence to keep the region dry for the day.
Current general weather pattern across the CONUS is a broad trough across the eastern US with a very strong ridge of high pressure centered over the four corners region. A weak shear axis remains in place across south central Texas this afternoon with a weak inverted trough approaching the Texas Gulf Coast. Forcing from the approaching weak inverted trough as well as outflow boundaries and the sea breeze should allow for isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across most of the region. Given the high PWAT values in place, any shower or thunderstorm that does form will have the potential to drop some locally heavy rainfall.
Hot conditions are forecast for interior portions of Northwest California today while coastal communities remain cooler. Another hot day is forecast for portions of Northwest California as we remain trapped between low pressure off to our west and high pressure off to our east.
222 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017 The final round of late night convection is finally exiting the southwestern corner of the CWA at this hour, as a cold front continues south into northern Arkansas. Temperatures won't be particularly cool--still upper 80s for most--but with dewpoints falling into the low 60s, it should feel much better outside.
Showers and t'storms ahead of a cold front near the Ohio River will affect the northern portions of the area this morning, with a general weakening trend expected as it spreads southward. The cold front will move through the area in the late afternoon evening, which should end all rain chances by midnight. High pressure building in will provide a drier air mass that will allow low temps to fall into the lower to mid 60s tonight.
Look for another round of very warm to hot temperatures for inland areas on Saturday as high pressure dominates our weather pattern.
For Saturday night a warm front sets up from north central ND southeast into western Minnesota. Saturday should prove just a tad warmer than today, but Sunday will see temperatures return to the 90s almost everywhere, with a few near 100 readings late Sunday afternoon.
1120 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Current surface map shows weak high pressure across the Dakotas.
Southwest steering flow will continue to slowly increase moisture values ahead of approaching/weakening cold front across the southeast U. This will continue hot and humid conditions with highs into the lower/middle 90s and heat indices topping out near 105 degrees before convection peaks during the late afternoon hours.
350 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front crosses the area later today and tonight, then stalls along the Carolina coast Sunday. Latest MSAS has a sfc trof across the western Piedmont with another weak system moving NE from the Outer Banks. That said, still a tuff call on just how much convection develops ahead of the cold front later today given a downslope flow. However, can't rule out a pre-frontal shwr/tstrm along leading sfc trof so kept slght chc pops btwn 18Z through 21Z. A hot and humid day ahead of the boundary with enough heating to allow temps to reach the low-mid 90s.
SHRA/TSRA will redevelop after 18Z Sat favoring the high terrain once again.
651 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A shower or thunderstorm will be possible in spots today before drier, less humid and slightly cooler air arrives tonight. The high-res models focus convection over NW to N-Central PA this morning before pushing southeast during the early to mid afternoon. A significant push of drier, less humid air with below normal PW values will arrive tonight as high pressure slides east from the Midwest. Clear skies along with the relatively low dewpoint air will result in a refreshingly cooler night with minimum temps ranging from the mid-upper 40s NW to upper 50s- near 60F in the SE. Expect a pleasant/comfortable (low-humidity) and rain-free end to the weekend with high pressure in control.
* Moderate for cig aob 5kft through this morning A mid level trough axis and associated sfc cold front will continue their eastward advancement across the ern Great Lakes early this morning. An 850mb thermal trough (temps of +8 to +9C) will settle overhead this afternoon. This cooler air will support high temps in the 70s. Humidity will be also be much less today as sfc dewpoints drop into the low 50s. A mid level trough axis is forecast to pivot around a seasonally deep Hudson Bay upper low this weekend, driving a secondary cold front into the northern Great Lakes on Sunday. Otherwise, slight warm air advection under low level sw flow will drive high temps back up into the low 80s.
The upper ridge axis over the Rockies will expand east onto the Central Plains today while at the surface, a high pressure system will shift south toward the southern plains. In return flow and the expanding upper ridge will allow warmer air to spread onto the plains today resulting in a warmer day temperaturewise with highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s. The ridge axis will shift southeast Saturday bringing a return of southerly winds.
This increase in moisture will translate to a gradual upswing in thunderstorm activity and subsequently cooler daytime temperatures. The upper high responsible for the excessive heat will remain centered north of the area resulting in a deeper easterly flow.
This will allow for temperatures to reach the low 90s during the afternoon for most of the region.
321 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front will pass through the region today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Water vapor imagery shows a 500-mb ridge centered over the Great Basin and a 500-mb inverted trough over the northeast Mexican coast. Deep tropical moisture, in combination with the mid-level inverted trough, and light to moderate southeasterly winds, should enhance convection along the seabreeze again today. The mid-level ridge builds eastward, near the Four Corners region, on Sunday. Rain chances expected to be lower on Sunday due to drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 70s across the ranchlands to upper 70s near the coast under partly cloudy skies. High temperatures Sunday expected to be a couple of degrees warmer due to decreasing rain chances and less cloud cover.
659 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front crosses the area later today and tonight, then stalls along the Carolina coast Sunday. Latest MSAS has a sfc trof across the western Piedmont with another weak system moving NE from the Outer Banks. That said, still a tuff call on just how much convection develops ahead of the cold front later today given a downslope flow. However, can't rule out a pre-frontal shwr/tstrm along leading sfc trof so kept slght chc pops btwn 18Z through 21Z. A hot and humid day ahead of the boundary with enough heating to allow temps to reach the low-mid 90s.
633 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Showers with the chance of thunderstorms will move through this morning in association with a cold front. Cold front over western NY will drop south and east this morning bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Secondary upper wave and heating instability may linger a few showers, especially over the higher terrain, through the day. Sfc temps will rise fairly quickly after sunrise as a mid-lvl ridge nudges in from the south. This mid-lvl ridge will be just enough of an influence to keep the region dry for the day.
The mid-to-upper level ridge will remain centered over Utah today, allowing a weakening shear axis over Central Texas and an inverted trough over South Texas to provide a dynamic focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The ridge center will begin to slowly slide east on Sunday into the Four Corners Region, expanding into at least the western portions of our South Central Texas. One exception to this may be over our northeastern-most counties where showers and thunderstorms that develop along a stalled and dissipating back door cold front over the Ark-La-Tex may push a few outflow boundaries to help trigger storm activity over our area.
Convection is oriented along a cold front that will be pushing south into East Central OK and Central AR towards sunrise.
What is left of the vorticity associated with the elongated trough moving across the area could very well allow for more cloud cover than the last several mornings.
The western ridge and eastern trough across North America should pretty much remain in place throughout the forecast period, with the main variability being the amplitude of the flow. That will allow a seasonably strong band of low-amplitude westerlies to set up across the northern CONUS and southern Canada, on the northern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge across the central and southern CONUS. A frontal boundary along the southern edge of the westerlies is likely to remain near the forecast area for much of the upcoming week, before being pushed south late in the week as the eastern NOAM trough reamplifies.
Drier air will filter in behind the cold front with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s by this evening. Highs today will top out in the lower to mid 80s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 60s, but a few upper 50s are not out of the question. For the work week the lower Ohio Valley will generally be under northwesterly flow aloft. Broad ridging will try to build in across south central KY during mid week and shift the upper level flow to more quasi-zonal. With dewpoints rising to around 70, lows will be in the lower 70s by the end of the week. Skies should become mostly clear as a cold front clears the area this morning.
Best theta-e ridging is to the west where new cells have been sprouting above pool of 70-75 degree dew points ahead of the advancing cold front. Unlike last night though, the cold front may bring slightly more winds to keep us better mixed. Northwest surface winds Saturday will bring in drier and cooler weather. With high pressure right over us Saturday night, we should see temperatures cool into the 50s in some locations.
A fairly deep trough for this time of year lies just to our north, extending into the Tennessee valley. At the surface, there's a weak, broad ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf coast with a weak frontal boundary to our north. Daytime heating should warm the area to max temperatures in the low to mid 90s, driving a seabreeze circulation in the warm, moist environment ahead of the weak surface front.
Drier air will filter in behind the cold front with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s by this evening. Highs today will top out in the lower to mid 80s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 60s, but a few upper 50s are not out of the question. For the work week the lower Ohio Valley will generally be under northwesterly flow aloft. Broad ridging will try to build in across south central KY during mid week and shift the upper level flow to more quasi-zonal. With dewpoints rising to around 70, lows will be in the lower 70s by the end of the week.
341 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front along the south shore of Lake Erie will move southeast of the area this morning. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes tonight and Sunday before moving off the East Coast Sunday night. The surface cold front is making only slow progress this morning. High pressure will dominate tonight and Sunday with clear to mostly clear skies expected. Have stayed cooler than guidance for highs today as the models are likely underestimating the cloud cover.
Nice change in air mass heading our way as dew points to our northwest this evening were in the upper 50s to lower 60s and that air mass will be with us into Sunday morning before we bring the higher dew point air back into the region during the day Sunday. Quiet weather expected tonight and Saturday as high pressure settles in from the northwest with a pleasantly warm day expected Saturday as temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s by afternoon. Initial cold front has passed through Decatur and should soon be in Champaign, although the drier air is lagging behind and the dew point drop is closer to I-80. Drier northwest flow will prevail overnight into Saturday, as high pressure settles into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Mid to upper level clouds will prevail through the period as a weak trough moves inland across Mexico, just south of the Rio Grande Valley. /issued 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A 596 decameter ridge is over the four corners, with a broader and slightly weaker mid- level pattern over the Gulf. An inverted upper trough over the Southwest Gulf has a surface reflection, and convective activity continues to develop over that area and move north, fueled by plentiful tropical moisture. Meanwhile, the trough will edge slowly west toward the Northeast Mexican coast. High temperatures Saturday will be near normal in the lower to mid 90s due to increased cloud cover and rain chances.
Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures along the Keys island chain are in the lower 80s. The low to mid level flow will remain gentle to occasionally moderate favoring the east to southeast direction. As mentioned on an earlier shift, an upper level low will be settling southward from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so. probably the highest potential for measurable rainfall through this forecast.
The final round of late night convection is finally exiting the southwestern corner of the CWA at this hour, as a cold front continues south into northern Arkansas. Temperatures won't be particularly cool--still upper 80s for most--but with dewpoints falling into the low 60s, it should feel much better outside. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected today and tonight as high pressure moves overhead.
633 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A shower or thunderstorm will be possible in spots today before drier, less humid and slightly cooler air arrives tonight. The high-res models focus convection over NW to N-Central PA this morning before pushing southeast during the early to mid afternoon. A significant push of drier, less humid air with below normal PW values will arrive tonight as high pressure slides east from the Midwest. Clear skies along with the relatively low dewpoint air will result in a refreshingly cooler night with minimum temps ranging from the mid-upper 40s NW to upper 50s- near 60F in the SE. Expect a pleasant/comfortable (low-humidity) and rain-free end to the weekend with high pressure in control.
An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the four corners region resulting in dangerous heat across central California. These temperatures are forecast to continue into Sunday as the upper ridge remains firmly in place.
The 7 pm surface analysis showed the western extent of the Bermuda Ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, our forecast area was in the base of an upper trough, though the main belt of westerlies associated with this trough was well to our north. At the surface, ridging will prevail locally with a cold front forecast to pull up just short of the Tri-State region on Sunday. Afternoon highs will be near the mid 90s on Saturday and closer to the lower 90s on Sunday.
140 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 A cold front from the northwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today with the potential for some storms to be severe. High pressure will follow the front, providing dry weather for Saturday and Sunday.
404 AM MDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Vast recycling of convection in full swing as the strong upper level ridge over the area remains parked. Daily convection around the edges of the ridge has slowly, but steadily improved moisture profiles within the interior of the ridge. Today should be a near repeat of recent days with diurnally driven storms developing over the higher terrain by midday and then drifting or sending outflow boundaries out across the valleys. This start getting a bit more interesting early in the workweek as the high shifts eastward.
By late in the afternoon, a back door cold front will approach the Canadian border area from the northeast. The cold front washes out this evening while the upper level support departs.
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Dry and less humid conditions will filter into the PAH forecast area today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High temperatures today will be seasonal in the middle to upper 80s, but dew points will be dropping off into the lower to middle 60s. Models show the high moving off to our east late tonight, so winds will shift back to the south on Sunday.
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017 Weak high pressure remains in control today, leading to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s. Boundary/cold front expected to be across the southern FA during peak heating.
Surface cold front continues to exit eastward away from Michigan early this morning. with the upper level trough axis still holding over Michigan. Fast-moving cold front will drop SE thru Ontario today.
A monsoon flow of moisture will continue and today is looking like the best chance for some wetting storms with high pressure centered over southern UT and some modeled precipitable water values approaching an inch across the center portion of the LKN CWFA including northern Lander/Eureka Counties and the Ruby Mountains. A low pressure system will move onshore across western Canada on Sunday, nudging the high back towards the 4-corners area of the country and shunting the moisture core east over UT.
It took quite a while, but convection along the prefrontal trough draped along our southern tier has finally dissipated. The slow motion of the trough/shear axis combined with some outflow boundary complexity to produce some prolonged rainfall in the Albertville area. The cold front should continue to push swd thru the area during the day Sat. Slightly cooler/drier conditions will then develop Sat night, as cloud cover diminishes with the cold front moving S of the local area. Quiet and near seasonal temps then finally return heading into the latter half of the weekend period, as a strong area of high pressure out of the nrn/mid Plains builds sewd into the region.
657 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather today through Sunday.
After a warm night, high temperatures will edge up a degree or two from yesterday as the upper ridge holds over the western U. The ridge begins to weaken on Sunday ahead of an advancing trough. High temperatures are 2-4 degrees cooler on Sunday in response to the slight cooling aloft.