Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1155 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 High pressure will shift offshore today, allowing a warmer SW flow to develop. A low pressure area and associated cold front will move through our region Saturday.
Ongoing widespread convection continues north of warm front, which has yet to advance into far SE OK, and south of the cold frontal wind shift which is roughly along the I-44 corridor. Locally heavy rains have been noted as repeated generation continued on the periphery of the warmer mid level temps. The primary focus for any afternoon svr weather remains largely confined to the immediate sfc warm frontal zone which will briefly extend into far SE OK.
The frontal system responsible for the rain overnight has shifted to our east, replaced with a weak upper ridge. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today, with highs a few degrees above normal. Precipitation and mountain obscuration will be widespread on Saturday, with snow levels 8k-10k ft MSL, lowering to 5k-6k ft MSL Saturday evening following a Pacific cold front.
Winds will shift from the SW at 6-12 kts today to the N tonight as a cold front moves through.
Current surface analysis places broad high pressure stretching along the lee side of the Canadian Rockies working into the northern plains. Breezy conditions continue over our area as the high settles to the south/southeast. Weak ridge remains over the western United States, while a potent low remains off the British Columbia coast. For today into tonight, mainly quiet weather is expected as short wave exits the area and modest ridge to the west slides a bit east. This would break records over many locations for the lowest high temperatures recorded. On Saturday, deep upper low swings off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and ejects a strong short wave. Upper ridge pushes east and breaks down as the wave slides east. A little freezing drizzle will be possible over far southwest North Dakota where ice might be occasionally lacking a bit.
Overall trend will be for ceilings to lower to MVFR at all areas a with IFR eventually bemusing more prevalent this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front moves through. Areas of light rain/freezing rain will develop behind strong arctic cold front by this evening, transitioning to a mix of light snow and sleet overnight with some minor accumulations possible across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
611 AM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018 Early this morning a cold front has moved through the CWA however, the better cold air advection has lagged behind the front. High pressure should begin to build into the area from the northern Plains tonight ushering in another round of dry air and shunting precipitation south of the area. A unseasonably cool day is then expected on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s as high pressure dominates.
906 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 High pressure will be over the Western Atlantic Today, with ridge extending across the region. This will keep readings cooler along the beaches.
Temperatures started off mild along the coast with the onshore flow, so highs should reach the lower 80s there.
907 AM PDT Fri Apr 6 2018 A low pressure system will move through California on Saturday.
Warmer air aloft will also raise snow-levels significantly and increase snowmelt and runoff through Saturday. Strongest winds will occur along the storm's cold front, expected around noon PDT in eastern Oregon, and Saturday afternoon and early evening in southwestern Idaho.
908 AM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018 Expanded Advisory area downstream through the Omaha metro area as reports of flash freezing on some roadways were being reported by law enforcement in the area. Temperatures falling into the lower and mid 20s with increasing winds at mid morning with little in the way of recovery expected. Satl imagery this morning showing a very broad trof extending across the CONUS with increased Pacific moisture streaming eastward. the leading edge of a cold front was situated from ern IA-nrn MO-sw KS.
An incoming area of low pressure will bring a few showers to the Sierra today and strong, gusty winds to the western Mojave Desert.
Latest blended guidance indicates there could be pockets of sub-freezing air, so have a mention of possible -fzra in there for the AM, but it disappears very quickly as milder air works in on southerly flow. Despite overcast skies, advection of warmer air on southerly flow should result in late day highs in the 40s across nearly the entire forecast area.
Looking at overnight lows in the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Southwest return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface trof oriented NE-SW fron western Ohio into southern Missouri. Precip is breaking out over the Deep South, and this moisture plume will continue to stream north and interact with the inverted trof pushing east into the Ohio Valley. Waves of low pressure moving along the surface boundary will slow its progress, and precip will also continue after it slips just to the south and east in a juicy overrunning pattern.
East-southeast winds near the surface veered to the south in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and then to west-southwest and west in the mid and upper levels. An upper level ridge centered over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise low level baroclinic zone/frontal slope opens/spreads a bit sewd this evening and expected to enhance another narrow band of snow invof the highway 6 corridor before diminishing overnight. Primary wave in base of ern NOAM centered trough lifts out through the wrn OH valley late Sat night/Sun.
Areas of freezing drizzle will be possible across eastern portions of the forecast area. /issued 325 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ A cold front, currently located along/near Interstate 40 in western Oklahoma, will continue to push southward across the rest of Oklahoma and north Texas tonight. With the exception of far southeast Oklahoma, temperatures Saturday will be at or well below freezing. There may be enough isentropic ascent that patchy/areas of freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain may develop. Overall, not overly confident that freezing drizzle will develop with rather dry sub-cloud air, but concerned enough that an advisory will be issued. As 85h winds become north and northwest Saturday into Saturday night the chance/risk of freezing drizzle/rain will shift east of the area.
Dry weather will arrive Saturday as high pressure aloft builds over the area.
Otherwise winds will keep temps up in NE ND, esp along the higher terrain west edge of the Red River valley. As clear and cold arctic high pressure remains anchored across the northern plains impacts again will revolve around temperatures and wind chills for the evening and overnight. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than previous morning as westerly winds keep mixing higher than previous mornings. Saturday max temps look to be a bit warmer than the past few days with better mixing with the west to southwest surface winds.
Cold fronts will move through the region this weekend brining showers and colder temperatures. Breezy winds are expected to accompany the cold frontal passage on Saturday.
535 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Cold front currently atop LBB will precede NE winds of 10-15 knots through the night, and eventually some MVFR stratus at all terminals toward daybreak. /issued 256 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ A strong cold front is making its way across the South Plains this afternoon.
At the surface, strong cold front extends from central MO into the TX Panhandle. So feel that some freezing drizzle will be possible over southeast KS tonight. The main factor that should keep ice accumulation to just a glaze is surface winds remaining out of the north which will continue to pump-in drier air in the lowest 1,000ft. At this time, the highest snow amounts Sat night into Sun morning look to be along and north of I-70 where 1-3 inches will be possible, with lighter amounts to the south.
The cold front will move across the forecast area during the day Saturday. Surface winds will be Southeast to South 5-10 knots overnight and more variable near late morning to mid day with approach and passage of the cold front.
607 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 A cold front is just entering northwest Arkansas and will stall across the north on Saturday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 61 57 66 / 90 100 100 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 59 55 65 / 80 90 100 90 Oak Ridge, TN 46 57 54 64 / 80 100 100 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 57 52 64 / 40 100 100 100 NC.
Skies will attempt to clear afterward on Sat but increase again Sat nt with another round of light snow and accums for se WI via mid level frontogenesis and approaching upper trough. Light north winds prevail at the surface with high pressure over the plains.
1008 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 The Cape sounding & 915 MHz profilers show 15-20 knots southeast flow in the low levels, which will continue to draw a warm air mass over the area and keep temperatures some 10-15 degrees above climatology. Low level southeast flow should confine the lowest CIGS/VSBY to the west coast and northern Peninsula, with the potential for a period of MVFR conditions across KDAB-KSFB-KMCO-KISM-KLEE late tonight. Winds veer to the S/SE over the waters as high pressure ridge axis settles southward across the area.
643 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure, to the east, is forecast to keep the wind out of the east to southeast through the TAF period. Meanwhile, to the south of the front, over southern Florida, upper level high pressure has been the dominating feature. Mostly sunny skies, combined with strong subsidence from the high, has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low 80s along the east coast metro region to mid 80s further inland. Maximum temperatures will again be slightly warmer than normal with low 80s along the east coast metro and mid 80s elsewhere.
627 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A low pressure system tracking east across the Red River region tonight wil bring a strengthening southerly flow of moisture into the area.
A surface cold front is currently located over central Texas, central Oklahoma, central Missouri, and into central Illinois.
A dry trough will be moving through the Great Basin tonight and Saturday. Stronger winds through the passes of the Kern county mountains will likely keep temperatures a bit warmer across the Mojave area tonight.
likely across the highway 34 corridor but strong mid-level forcing will exist all the way to the I-80 corridor. High-res models were initially pegging the highway 34 corridor but through the day were gradually shifting north and coming more in line with the NAM. I still believe the NAM is too far north bringing the higher qpf a little north of the I-80 corridor and given that the qpf for the GFS, RAP and the HRRR was about a tenth of an inch less overall. Putting it all together gives us an expected snowfall of around 3 inches near the I-80 corridor with 4 inches or so around the highway 34 corridor. The increased forcing will quickly saturate the atmosphere during the evening with snow spreading northward to around the Highway 92 corridor by midnight.
946 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Ahead of the a warm front lifting northward, cloud cover increased through the evening. By Saturday morning, guidance moves the warm front north of the area into central/northern Tennessee. The best isentropic lift shifts north with the warm front as well. The low level jet strengthens as a result to around 50 knots, especially as this low moves northeast into Mississippi and Arkansas during the day.
559 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 A region of high pressure will continue moving southward across our forecast area tonight with the majority of the region seeing mostly clear skies. This will allow for cooling of temperatures down into the low teens and double digits below zero across much of the Northland. Wind chills are slightly warmer than the previous night with the additional cloud cover and lighter winds.
Made slight modifications of lower the PoPs for the southern Coastal Bend for the remainder of the evening as it appears the better lift associated with the short wave trough is moving northeast of the region. Short wave trough west of Laredo continues to move to the northeast. Appears lift from the short wave trough will be moving northeast of the area during the overnight hours.
An area of snow situated between high pressure over Montana and low pressure over the central Rockies will continue to affect the southwestern part of the CWA into the early evening hours, with minor accumulations of less than one inch expected. The high to the northwest begins to drop southward tonight, becoming centered over western and central South Dakota by morning, and over the South Dakota/Nebraska/Iowa region by Saturday evening. With temperatures starting off in the single digits above zero late this afternoon, expect to see them plummet tonight as the high moves in and skies clear.
701 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Moisture will increase today ahead of an approaching warm front.
Cooler conditions are on tap through the weekend as a weak disturbance passes through the region. A dry trough will be moving through the Great Basin tonight and Saturday. Stronger winds through the passes of the Kern county mountains will likely keep temperatures a bit warmer across the Mojave area tonight.
/issued 643 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018/ High pressure, to the east, is forecast to keep the wind out of the east to southeast through the TAF period. Meanwhile, to the south of the front, over southern Florida, upper level high pressure has been the dominating feature. Mostly sunny skies, combined with strong subsidence from the high, has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low 80s along the east coast metro region to mid 80s further inland. Maximum temperatures will again be slightly warmer than normal with low 80s along the east coast metro and mid 80s elsewhere.
428 PM MST Fri Feb 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary well south and west of the area, with low pressure along the boundary over far northeast CO. Arctic high pressure is centered over northeast MT. Upper level analysis continues to show low pressure over Hudson Bay, with broad trough covering much of Canada and the northern US. Skies will gradually clear from northeast to southwest later tonight into Saturday morning as high pressure to the north slowly slides southeast across the Northern Plains. The weekend will be dry as high pressure moves over and east of the region.
Currently, mid level short wave trough swinging southeast through the region.
Current observations show the cold front has just about reached the far southern TX Panhandle with a temperature spread of about 30 degrees currently; with temperatures around 30 in the OK Panhandle well behind the front to near 60 in the far southern TX Panhandle. Otherwise during most of the day hours on Saturday, it will feature mostly cloudy skies with high temps well below average as most of the region will struggle to get above freezing or even crack 30 degrees in the northern Panhandles.
926 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Sfc analysis shows a trough along the coast and extends a bit north-northeast into the offshore marine waters of GA where an isolated strong tstm developed late Friday aftn. A warm front also extends west-east across north central FL and will lift northward gradually tonight. Persistent low clouds and fog will be north of the warm front over southeast GA.
Light rain (slight chance of freezing north of I 80) is initially expected to be focused along a now-stationary frontal boundary stretched across the southern Erie shore. Analysis indicates a general 1 to 2 inches of water equivalent on the ground from Pittsburgh northward, with 2 to 3 inches in the ridges.
Simultaneously, A cold front will sag southward into northeast Arkansas by early Saturday morning. The interaction of gulf moisture and a cold front will create efficient rain rates and plenty of QPF during the day on Saturday. By late Saturday night, sub-freezing air will push into the northeast part of our forecast area after midnight. This will bring a period of freezing rain potential to extreme northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. Temperatures look to stay around the freezing mark, which will likely limit any ice accumulations to elevated surfaces.
High pressure builds across the region on Saturday, resulting in clearing skies and light westerly winds.
258 PM PST Fri Feb 9 2018 Gusty north winds and slightly cooler on Saturday.
312 PM MST Fri Feb 9 2018 Current surface analysis shows arctic boundary well south and west of the area, with low pressure along the boundary over far northeast CO. Arctic high pressure is centered over northeast MT. Upper level analysis continues to show low pressure over Hudson Bay, with broad trough covering much of Canada and the northern US. Skies will gradually clear from northeast to southwest later tonight into Saturday morning as high pressure to the north slowly slides southeast across the Northern Plains. The weekend will be dry as high pressure moves over and east of the region.
Currently watching a warm front lift northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Once the front reaches the north, it will begin to combine with a broad upper- level trough that will slowly slide southeastward through the Midwest and Ozarks.
1053 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Moisture will increase today ahead of an approaching warm front.
Front/inverted trough sets up as a low pressure just to our north pivots the old front to a SW-NE orientation. Palm tree express? Morning might still be sub-freezing for the north-central mtns.
A cold front will edge into the region early Saturday morning, resulting in a NE wind shift at HOB, INK, and MAF by around 11Z- 14Z. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough moving across the northern U. is pushing a strong cold front south.
Westerly winds increase on Saturday helping to warm temperatures toward the freezing mark west, 20s central and into the teens east.
The front will develop in response to a developing long wave trough in the western states, as a blocking upper level ridge develops to our east.
Upper low off the California coast with unstable southerly flow aloft into central Oregon this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile an upper level trough will be moving through the region Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring much cooler temperatures with partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will trend cooler today with similar values forecast for tomorrow.
Southerly winds aloft will advect slightly warmer temperatures into the forecast area today. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s.
Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, with slightly more humid air. The upper low which was once Irma tracks into the OH Valley late tonight and into Thursday morning. The upper level low associated with the remnants of Irma, pass north of the forecast area, as it moves from Ohio into western PA, Thursday, and then across PA, away from the forecast area, Thursday night. All the while, the low fills and opens up into a trough.
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ High clouds this evening have kept our temperatures warmer tonight in comparison to these last few nights, with current temperatures in the upper 50s/ lower 60s in our northern zones ranging into the upper 70s closer to the coast.
High pressure will return for the weekend. The weakening remnants of Irma will slowly drift toward the region from the lower Ohio River Valley through Thursday. Highs today should warm into the lower to mid 70s with a few breaks anticipated. Cooler on Thursday with thicker cloud cover and showers expected across the region.
A strong upper-deck ridge, that extends from Baja CA almost of the Wrn Dakotas, will force the remnants NE as it gets forced in a general ely manner across the Great Plains by a strong, positively-tilted upper-deck trof that'll dig almost due S from the Pacific NW to the Great Basin from today thru Fri. The upper deck ridge should deamplify as it approaches, then crosses, the Great Lakes Thu afternoon. The ridge, though deamplifying, will keep us high & dry throughout these periods. upper-deck wave & its attendant cold front. With broad & STRONG mid-upper deck ridging nearly covering the southeastern half of the U. This would cause the attendant SE- moving cold front, progged to enter NW KS Sat afternoon, to begin decelerating as it ventures further into KS Sat Night.
/issued 344 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ A few light showers have developed near the TX and NM state line along a wind shear axis between the remnant tropical system over the MS valley and upper ridge centered over the 4-corners. The tropical remnants shift northeast Wednesday into Thursday, while a upper low moves into California, allowing the upper ridge to slide across the region, with the ridge axis off to the east by Thursday. The western upper low will weaken as it moves across the southern Rockies by late Thursday, with heights falls beginning to emerge over the southern plains.
UA ridging across the western CONUS will commence to shift eastward today, courtesy of an UA trough moving onshore across the Pacific northwest. With an UL ridge drawing near and clearing skies occurring today, both 500 mb height fields and 850 mb temps will be on the rise leading to temps in the 80s today, followed by seasonal avg temps by tomorrow /upper 80s to lower 90s/. Expect further warming by this weekend /lower 90s CWA-wide/, courtesy of the UA ridge moving almost overhead.
A ridge of high pressure with its axis stretching northeast across the Panhandles will bring tranquil weather conditions throughout the remainder of the work week.
As the remnants of Irma lift off to the northeast over the next 24 to 36 hours, high pressure will redevelop across the southeastern US further cementing the southerly winds and bringing our unseasonably cool weather to an end. As we head into the latter part of the week, upper level ridging becomes established across the central US.
This will result in warmer low temperatures tonight. High temperatures will be warmer today and tomorrow as well.
Otherwise, the upper air pattern is still on track to buckle from northwest to southwest by Thursday night in the wake of an upper ridge. Water vapor imagery revealed weak cyclonic flow over the region this afternoon downstream of an upper ridge. Modest SBCAPE near this trough should foster additional convective development downstream of the current activity around Kim CO, with northerly mid/upper flow steering this activity south and limiting its eastward progress.
Upper low continues to spin off the California coast while an upper trough digs in from British Columbia. Expect much of this activity to increase through the afternoon as the upper low begins to lift across the Great Basin, and the upper trough in BC drops into WA/OR tonight. Dynamics pick up tomorrow afternoon as the PAC NW trough deepens. This will result in more widespread precipitation as well as the lowering of snow levels.
High pressure remains centered across much of the Great Lakes region early this morning. Northern fringe of moisture shield associated with Irma will lift northward into Central Lower Michigan as the low center begins to move thru the Ohio Valley. Low temps tonight will cool back into the low to mid 50s. Pattern Forecast: Remnants of Hurricane Irma continue to press off to our east during the day Thursday while troughing digs across the West Coast. As a result, northern Michigan lies between the two systems with increasing heights/ridging aloft. The one possible exception arrives Thursday night as an area of low pressure begins to ramp up across the central plains and a nearly stationary boundary over Ontario begins to show signs of gradual northward movement.
355 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Low pressure is currently centered near the TN/MO/KY border, with the mid and upper level system nearly stacked aloft. Light rain will continue off and on into tonight, as the lowest levels become saturated and the mid and upper level low pressure system will be closest to us. This could lead to fog development on the ridges.