Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will increase however as low pressure over northwest Texas begins to shift into the Central Plains. A weak northerly wind with that cloud cover should help keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday, with highs generally staying in the mid to upper 70s. Widespread coverage of rain should reach the rest of the region in the morning hours Saturday before coverage starts to scatter out as the warm front lifts northward.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA. RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIDGE LINES AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
334 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND BRISK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY.
Expect light winds and slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Deep trof over the western half of the CONUS will eject out another low for the Midwest this weekend.
700 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL DISSOLVE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MAKE MINIMAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. SMALL CLOSED LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EASTWARD BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES BACK BY MIDDAY/MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AGAIN AS WHAT WAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS MID COUNTRY OPENS AND JOINS THE MEAN FLOW.
340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening. This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half of the CWA tonight. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS.
423 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES TODAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY.
THE SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES INTO THE HALF INCH (WEST) TO NEAR ONE INCH (EAST) RANGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. PLENTY OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
A DEEP TROUGH IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE 00Z NAM KEPT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH LIGHT WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH.
418 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES TODAY.
348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into western Kansas later today. With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few days with highs in the 60s. Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm front lifting northward through the Ozarks.
314 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016 After a dry start, low pressure and cold front quickly dropping southward into western Nevada may bring some showers north of Interstate 80 later today. Cooler conditions, a higher chance for showers, and gusty north to northeast winds arrive tonight into Saturday.
GIVEN PROGD LOCATION OF SURFACE CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT.
126 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
214 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016 A cooler system will bring increased cloud cover and areas of rain across Eastern Washington and north Idaho today.
350 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016 DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REINFORCED BY THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL AGAIN ACT TO RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE OF AN ALREADY COOL RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE /850 MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/. HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER 50S. GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AND MIGRATING E AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS SHOWN ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL U.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INCLUDES TWO CLOSED LOWS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA. BASE OF TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.
DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.
DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS.
355 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT.
1131 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
WEAKENING 500 HPA OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY GIVEN AN UPSTREAM KICKER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 850 HPA GETTING TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENT INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINS TO UNDER CUT THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE. SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ALL ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL SOUTH ACROSS MO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAINFALL DEPENDENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NORTH OF I-90.
330 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION THIS EARLY FRI MORNING. AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR MAY BE MAXIMIZED JUST ENOUGH ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TSTMS. AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO MUCH OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI.
355 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE BRINGING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MT SNOW TO THE AREA WILL RIDE ALONG THE CO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY. BECOMING DOMINATED BY FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS THROWN IN. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE U. THIS LOW TURNS BRIEFLY EAST AND MOVES INTO AZ SAT.
THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN.
/TODAY/ WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.
631 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY.
328 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt fashion this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas, with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas.
The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across portions of the area. With a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast.
320 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 A PESKY UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE DRYING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA.
313 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TO AROUND 60F FAR SOUTH.
307 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LARGE AREA OF STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFT AND RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS REMNANTS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO EXIT SE AWAY FROM LWR MICHIGAN. A LOOK UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN IN THE VCNTY OF AN UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST A BIT, AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ONLY ALLOW SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
As a powerful jet rounds the base of the mean trof out West, translating height falls to the southern Plains, Low pressure develops/evolves and the teleconnected flow backs across the mid Mississippi river valley. This will allow a surge of ample moisture awaiting transport, and as the Low(s) move eastward out of the Plains, they'll shoot pieces of energy across their attendant boundaries.
240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT. THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF ONTARIO. THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. WITH THE LOWEST 5K' OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A BETTER CHANCE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH.
431 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL DISSOLVE BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MAKE MINIMAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BEFORE LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK. SMALL CLOSED LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EASTWARD BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES BACK BY MIDDAY/MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AGAIN AS WHAT WAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS MID COUNTRY OPENS AND JOINS THE MEAN FLOW.
544 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 A PESKY UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE DRYING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE.
240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS RADIATION COOLING HAS DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE 50'S ACROSS THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT NOSES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID STATE. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE PARENT LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE CORN BELT.
A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt fashion this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas, with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas.
406 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 Elevated convection has developed across southeast Oklahoma early this morning to the north of a warm front lying just south of the Red River, and this activity will continue to lift northeast this morning into the rest of the forecast area. The northward movement of the warm front today will be slowed by the considerable amount of convection to its north. Surface based thunderstorms will likely develop near and south of the warm front later this afternoon, and these storms will have a hail, wind, and tornado threat. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area tonight ahead of a cold front that will trail south from the low.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IDAHO WAS RAPPING MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH.
405 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM EASTERN UTAH TO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THERE JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW AND NOT A NICE COMPACT SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE A BIT BETTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH LOOKS TO SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP UNDER THE STRONGEST QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TODAY AND GIVEN HIGH SUN ANGLES. LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
419 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING. PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW KEPT THESE HEADLINES GOING TO AVOID CONFUSION AND TO AVOID FLIP FLOPPING SHOULD THE LOW TAKE A FARTHER WEST TRACK. THESE VERY LIKELY WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ACTUALLY REACHING SE WY AND WRN NE PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE WORST ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND AIR TEMPERATURES DIP TO AROUND FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIKELY THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY MAY NEVER DROP BELOW FREEZING SUCH THAT ROADS AREA ONLY WET. WHILE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE PINE RIDGE. A GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER REGIME SHOULD FINALLY SET UP OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD.
147 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES TODAY.
348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 Large trough of low pressure continues to spin across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest this morning. with well-established southwest flow prevailing downstream across the Plains and into the Lower Missouri Vly. expect increasing cloud cover as upper trough shifts east and sfc front to our south begins to lift north with time. precip chances will again increase from south to the north during the late afternoon hrs with activity becoming more widespread heading into the evening and overnight hrs as main trough ejects east and takes on a negative tilt across the central High Plains.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PUSHING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
450 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
431 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW NEAR MISSOULA/MT THIS MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY JOINED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS LOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOWS NEARBY.
130 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
645 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 LARGE AREA OF STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFT AND RESULTING LIGHT PRECIP IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS REMNANTS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO EXIT SE AWAY FROM LWR MICHIGAN. A LOOK UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN IN THE VCNTY OF AN UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST A BIT, AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
Rain showers currently over Clearwater and Idaho county will increase in coverage this morning as a weak but moist low pressure system spins over the area through today. Lingering showers will again give chances for light rain on Saturday, but the overall accumulations will be lighter than on Friday, as the low pressure moves to the south and away from our area.
DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.