Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered flurries in cold NW flow should gradually diminish late tonight as the flow backs somewhat, and ridging begins to build in ahead of another approaching upper trough.
Thus, temperatures look like they will drop into the lower to middle 30s in those locations. High cloudiness and weak warm air/moisture advection further south should keep low temperatures a bit warmer (mainly in the mid 30s). Some isolated pockets of patchy freezing fog is possible near and east of the I-65 corridor. On Sunday, the high pressure will shift east as a strong northwest flow low drops southeast through the eastern Corn Belt and middle OH Valley, and the upper low moving through TX begins to advance into the lower MS valley.
1135 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 High pressure will move off to the east tonight and an upper low will approach from north Texas. A cold front will move through Sunday and most of the clouds will be out of the area by 00Z. High pressure will weaken tonight over Arkansas. An upper low will move out of north Texas tonight and will be merging with a cold front over Arkansas Sunday.
This low will be absorbed by a 500mb low just south of the Great lakes.
Temperatures tomorrow will be a little cooler than they were today, but still well above seasonal norms, with highs in the low to mid 50s across the plains, although the southern valleys will remain in the 30s and 40s tomorrow. 1030 PM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 (06/06Z TAF period) High pressure aloft will provide mostly clear skies and widespread VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period. Upper level ridging continues to dominate across The Treasure State in the short term. Subsidence and drying are forecast, favoring warmer than average temperatures throughout most of the region.
1034 PM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 Quiet weather continues with low pressure to our south slowly moving eastward across Texas today. High pressure remains in place across the western CONUS. Another trough on the horizon off the Pacific Northwest coast will break up the quasi-rex block pattern.
1052 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2020 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low over southwest Texas will continue to move east- northeast to our south across Texas. The clouds and the precipitation chances will shift out of the area through the day on Sunday as the upper low moves away. The temperature at Buffalo is 15 to 20 degrees cooler than mesonet sites southeast of the snow area as close as Fairview, Cherokee or Taloga.
Failed to mention the low stratus at around 800 feet across Minnesota working south into Iowa. This will throw some shade and keep temps a bit cooler across western Iowa than the other side of the Missouri. High temps on Sunday will fall shy of the marks set the last couple of days as another dollop of cooler air is swept through the area. As the ridge rebuilds east for the work week, heights will climb and temps will threaten records.
543 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 (Today and tonight) The center of the upper level low is spinning near the DFW area early this morning. Highs will warm into the low to mid 60s with north winds of 10 to 15 mph.
902 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 Some light snow is possible tonight and Monday with crossing low pressure. Even with the ridging, cloud cover should continue with low level moisture below a temperature inversion.
623 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build south into North Carolina today. A low pressure system will move into the Carolinas tonight, slowly moving through central North Carolina and offshore by Monday night. High pressure will once again build into the area from the west through the middle of the week. Chilly morning temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s will increase into the low to mid 50s this afternoon.
A highly amplified flow continues to dominate the country with ridging across the Rockies and troughing over the eastern conus. Early this morning a weak area of low pressure was located over southeast Missouri, with its trailing cold front already through the region. Temperatures will cooler today with the re-enforcing shot of cooler air with highs ranging from the middle 40s across central Missouri, to the low 50s along the Arkansas border. For tonight, an area of high pressure will build across Kansas and Oklahoma, with a northerly flow continuing over Missouri.
228 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 Anomalously strong high pressure will be over the region today through Monday night, when the flow will turn more zonal.
319 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Overnight low temperatures are on track as the progressive upper level low completes its pass to our south and east. Temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees across the region as midlevel temperature profiles warm in the wake of the upper low. Plenty of sunshine and light surface winds due to a weak pressure gradient will lead to temperatures in the low to mid 60s across our forecast area. Models remain in good agreement with the evolution of an upper level ridge over the Rockies flattening on its northern flank and shifting to the southeast with.
Upper-low to open into a broad trough and exit the region to the east by late afternoon allowing for dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the short term as northerly flow becomes prevalent aloft. High temperatures today to climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows moisture across north central Texas in association with an upper level closed low over central Texas with mid to high level clouds clipping the far southern Texas Panhandle. This low pressure system will continue to push east and become absorbed with an even strong closed low digging across the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, ridging in the west will traverse east over the forecast area as a trough in the Pacific Northwest comes onshore. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today than yesterday with highs continuing to gradually increase towards the 60s by Monday. Areas in the northeast with snow still on the ground may continue to be slightly cooler than the surrounding areas. However, with a continuation of above freezing temperatures and sunny skies, the snow will continue to melt off day by day.
515 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Upper level low pressure will move across southern Arkansas today but only mid to high level moisture is expected. The system will be located to the east of the state by morning with high pressure building in behind it. Satellite imagery this morning shows upper level low pressure over northeast Texas and subsequent cloud cover over parts of the state. Other low pressure systems are evident over both northern Illinois and in the Gulf of Maine in the highly amplified upper pattern that is currently in place over the Continental United States. The low over northeast Texas will weaken and morph into an open wave as it passes through southern Arkansas during the day.
500 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 A few flurries are possible tonight and Monday with a crossing trough of low pressure. Even with the ridging, cloud cover should continue with low level moisture below a temperature inversion.
Weak high pressure dominates the surface across northern Michigan, with low level moisture trapped below attendant subsidence inversion resulting in plenty of clouds across a good chunk of northern lower Michigan. Post-wave drying expected to sweep south out of Canada overnight, helping scatter out the clouds across interior areas, particularly north of the big bridge again. As for temperatures, they will remain about seasonal, with highs today in the lower and middle 30s, and lows tonight ranging through the 20s.
355 AM Update: A strong low pressure system will be moving from off the northern Maine coast to southeastern Canada today. Lows will be seasonably chilly, mainly in the lower to mid 20s, with some readings in the teens across portions of the Catskills and northern Oneida County. A cool, dry trough will park over the northeastern portion of the U. High pressure will control our weather through the rest of the period.
As this process occurs, an upper- level ridge will shift quickly eastward into the eastern U. as it interacts with a northern stream upper-level trough. Temps will also warm to above average through the second half of the week as WAA increases with low-level flow gradually backing from the west-northwest to the south-southwest in response to the northern stream upper-level trough approaching the central U.
413 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Failed to mention the low cirrus 800 feet across Minnesota working south into Iowa. This will throw some shade and keep temps a bit cooler across western Iowa than the other side of the Missouri. High temps on Sunday will fall shy of the marks set the last couple of days as another dollop of cooler air is swept through the area. As the ridge rebuilds east for the work week, heights will climb and temps will threaten records.
424 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 Sent an early morning update to include patchy and areas of freezing fog along the Milk and Missouri River valleys as observations indicate more confidence of fog development this morning. Previous discussion: With surface observations showing nearly saturated conditions, a fine line between freezing fog and frost is setting up this early morning, especially along and near US- Highway 2. Today, an upper-level low pressure center will pinch off from the northern stream flow and separate completely by moving southward through the western US states. Further downstream for our region, high pressure remains in control.
/issued 319 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020/ Overnight low temperatures are on track as the progressive upper level low completes its pass to our south and east. Temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees across the region as midlevel temperature profiles warm in the wake of the upper low. Plenty of sunshine and light surface winds due to a weak pressure gradient will lead to temperatures in the low to mid 60s across our forecast area. Models remain in good agreement with the evolution of an upper level ridge over the Rockies flattening on its northern flank and shifting to the southeast with.
Upper level lift will increase with the approach of the low and the lift will combine with the lingering low level moisture. trof as it digs into South Carolina by Monday evening.
420 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure along with dry air will continue to hang in across the Carolinas overnight and into most of Sunday. A low pressure system will bring scattered showers to the area Sunday night and Monday with cool conditions.
Failed to mention the low cirrus 800 feet across Minnesota working south into Iowa. This will throw some shade and keep temps a bit cooler across western Iowa than the other side of the Missouri. High temps on Sunday will fall shy of the marks set the last couple of days as another dollop of cooler air is swept through the area. As the ridge rebuilds east for the work week, heights will climb and temps will threaten records.
402 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Our pattern of overall dry conditions look to continue for the next several days, with a trend toward warmer temperatures by mid-week. This would indicate the potential for some light snow and/or freezing drizzle.
A cold front associated with the upper low moving through the lower Mississippi Valley will be pushing through the CWA late this evening an into the overnight period.
644 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure will move east of the region today with a low pressure system crossing the region tonight through Monday with scattered showers.
520 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Rockies today, with northerly flow aloft across our area on the eastern periphery of the ridging. At the surface, the center of high pressure will settle southward along the Missouri river across eastern NE and western IA.
Drier and seasonally cool conditions can then be expected into mid week as high pressure at the surface settles into the region. Warming temperatures and an increase in moisture can be expected by the end of the week as high pressure moves off to the east.
A couple of upper lows will move across the area into Monday, bringing perhaps some flurries. Early this morning, an upper level low was across southeast Iowa. The upper low will move into central Indiana today. Deep moisture is lacking with the low though. Some decrease in clouds may occur early this evening, but they will quickly increase again as another upper low moves in from the northwest overnight. This upper low will have an upper jet with it to provide additional forcing.
High temps on Sunday will fall shy of the marks set the last couple of days as another dollop of cooler air is swept through the area. As the ridge rebuilds east for the work week, heights will climb and temps will threaten records.
411 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Rockies today, with northerly flow aloft across our area on the eastern periphery of the ridging. At the surface, the center of high pressure will settle southward along the Missouri river across eastern NE and western IA.
The upper level low that is positioned over Central Texas overnight will continue to eject to the northeast today and drier air should continue to wrap into the region in the wake of the low.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The 500 mb closed low over central and southern TX that generated the rainfall yesterday and overnight will continue moving out to the east towards the lower Miss River Valley later today and tonight. Weak 500 mb ridging will then rebuild over the RGV heading into Mon. The increasing 500 mb ridging and increasing sunshine will allow for temps to warm up nicely Mon afternoon. So will mention low temps Sun Night in the upper 30s across the northern Ranchlands with lower to mid 40s prevailing across the lower RGV.
557 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Our pattern of overall dry conditions look to continue for the next several days, with a trend toward warmer temperatures by mid-week. This would indicate the potential for some light snow and/or freezing drizzle.
531 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Areas along and east of I-29 are dealing with stratus and patchy fog this morning as a low pressure system/wave in eastern IA/western IL/southern WI spins to the south. Models continue to show mid and upper level ridge taking hold across the western US, with a cut off low pressure stuck in the southwestern US.
The upper pattern over the next few days persists with a western ridge and eastern trough. Multiple waves dive through the eastern trough with a wave early today bringing somewhat cooler temps and likely some stratus to the east. Low-level warm-air advection kicks in behind this system tonight into Monday with 850-925 mb temps 4-6 C warmer for highs back into the 50s.
Conditions will remain governed locally over the next 72 hours by a high amplitude pattern featuring energetic but relatively moisture starved longwave troughing. The first in a series of closed mid level circulations sweeping through the trough periphery will skirt harmlessly by to the south today.
High pressure will remain over the Interior West today. An upper level low pressure system will move south through the western Great Basin with minimal impact on Utah tonight into Monday. A trough during the second half of the week may bring enough cold air to mix out or weaken valley inversions.
318 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure will remain amplified over the Rockies today with mild afternoon temperatures and light winds aloft. A low pressure trough will move into the Pacific Northwest this morning, allowing the Rex-ish block to break down as the southern low finally exits into Texas. The high pressure ridge will stand firm as this PacNW low closes off and drops southward through the Great Basin this afternoon. The closed low will then drop southwestward just off the Southern California/Baja coastline, in turn forming yet another Rex Block, although this one is positioned further west rather than directly overhead.
An upper level longwave ridge will remain anchored over the western CONUS through mid-week, effectively inhibiting any impactful weather during that time period.
(Today and tonight) The center of the upper level low is spinning near the DFW area early this morning. Highs will warm into the low to mid 60s with north winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Quiet weather will continue throughout the short term period as upper level northerly flow on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge is maintained over the central plains. An upper level longwave ridge will remain anchored over the western CONUS through mid-week, effectively inhibiting any impactful weather during that time period.
419 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure will remain amplified over the Rockies today with mild afternoon temperatures and light winds aloft. A low pressure trough will move into the Pacific Northwest this morning, allowing the Rex-ish block to break down as the southern low finally exits into Texas. The high pressure ridge will stand firm as this PacNW low closes off and drops southward through the Great Basin this afternoon. The closed low will then drop southwestward just off the Southern California/Baja coastline, in turn forming yet another Rex Block, although this one is positioned further west rather than directly overhead.
Thereafter, a storm system is expected to bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a chance of showers the latter half of the work week. A broad ridge across the region will push our temperatures back to well above average over the next few days.
Slightly warmer 700 mb temperatures along with subsident flow will allow temperatures to reach the upper 50s to low 60s across the plains. Tonight, most areas will see seasonally mild temperatures although snow cover across the mountain parks will make the temperatures plummet to the low single digits.
345 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 Areas along and east of I-29 are dealing with stratus and patchy fog this morning as a low pressure system/wave in eastern IA/western IL/southern WI spins to the south. Models continue to show mid and upper level ridge taking hold across the western US, with a cut off low pressure stuck in the southwestern US.
513 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 (Today and tonight) Upper low over north-central Texas will continue to move move east today, with a brief period of light rain still possible this morning across far south-central and southeast portions of the forecast area. It will remain about 10 to 15 degrees cooler over and near Harper county where snowpack remains.
Rinse and repeat! No words can better explain our current weather regime as high pressure continues to dominate the Northern Rockies. Compared to this time yesterday multiple locations above 5000 feet are 5 to 10 degrees warmer, while lower valleys are a degree or two cooler.
Temperatures will start off seasonably cold and below normal, but trend warmer and rise above average from late week into the weekend.
A strong area of low pressure aloft is forecast to bring strong wind gusts in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains starting late Sunday and Monday.
/NEW/ /Through Tonight/ A strong upper low continues to lift northeast across the region early this morning. Once the upper low departs this afternoon, slightly drier and subsident air will take its place, allowing clouds to clear and temperatures to warm into the 50s and lower 60s. A late-week storm system may bring cooler temperatures and increased rain chances back to the region. This ridging pattern will result in dry weather and a gradual warming trend through the middle of the week.
401 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020 A few sprinkles or very light showers will remain possible early this morning across far southeast Oklahoma as an upper low moves across northeast Texas.
439 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build south into North Carolina today. A low pressure system will move into the Carolinas tonight, slowly moving through central North Carolina and offshore by Monday night. High pressure will once again build into the area from the west through the middle of the week. Chilly morning temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s will increase into the low to mid 50s this afternoon.
This will all be dissipating over the next 60-90 minutes, so will let the Freezing Fog Advisory expire at 15Z. A cold front will push through the Tennessee Valley this evening, prompting a sharp wind shift to the northwest along with some strong cold air advection. By Monday evening, these winds should subside enough to give us a good setup for radiational cooling and a cold night with lows in the low to mid 20s.
An upper low from yesterday's frontal passage will slide southward tonight and retrograde back towards the coast through Monday causing gusty offshore flow and fire concerns tonight into Monday.
A brief period of both freezing temperatures and dense fog is possible this morning across north Central Alabama, mainly near bodies of water and low lying valleys. High clouds have exited to the east, allowing temperatures to fall to near or just below freezing. With a concern of localized freezing fog near bridges, a Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued until 8am for northern counties.
432 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 High pressure continues over the Rockies with clear skies and dry weather.
A westerly component has helped keep temperatures along the Eastern Mountain lee slopes in the lower 30s, while the Plains are mostly in the lower 20s. quiet weather is expected to prevail through the next 24 hours across Colorado as high pressure aloft continue to be the main influence. Temperatures will remain mild this afternoon with lower 60s across the lower elevations, while the San Luis Valley sees upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower 20s across the Plains, with temperatures near 30s along the Eastern Mountain lee slopes.
411 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge over NM with mostly clear skies. Cooler temperatures and light rain and snow work their way in towards the end of the week, as a series of disturbances crosses the state. The warming trend continues under a sharp ridge of high pressure. Highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer than normal today, and 5-15 degrees warmer than normal on Monday. Lows tonight will remain cooler than normal over northwest, west central and north central New Mexico while continuing to be within a few degrees of average elsewhere.
Upper low over north Texas early this morning will continue to translate eastward today, as a short wave trough dives southward from the Midwest. /Issued 401 AM CST Sun Dec 6 2020/ A few sprinkles or very light showers will remain possible early this morning across far southeast Oklahoma as an upper low moves across northeast Texas.
325 AM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 With surface observations showing nearly saturated conditions, a fine line between freezing fog and frost is setting up this early morning, especially along and near US-Highway 2. Today, an upper-level low pressure center will pinch off from the northern stream flow and separate completely by moving southward through the western US states. Further downstream for our region, high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to upper 30s tonight within a cold air advection regime. Dry and cool northwest flow aloft will keep the area beneath the western fringes of the core of cold air which will support seasonably cool afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 50s tomorrow beneath sunny skies.
Thundery storms are expected tonight as a prefrontal trough slides east through the Keys. The next cold front will be upon us late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Monday, along with moderate to fresh southwest breezes, as a much stronger cold front approaches the area.