Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A familiar pattern continues, with high pressure over the eastern US and Epsilon churning just east of Bermuda in the Atlantic. Partly cloudy skies will continue, as lows fall into the low 70s for most of the area, with mid 70s along the Treasure Coast. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern seaboard and distant Epsilon just east of Bermuda has begun to relax and easterly winds will finally diminish to 10-15kts overnight.
1009 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A strong high pressure system surface and aloft will keep near record warm weather across the region into Friday.
VFR conditions will prevail ahead of approaching cold front, which is currently extending from nwrn MO into nwrn OK. /Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ A strong cold front will move across the area late tonight and early Friday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms near and behind the front.
/issued 315 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ Warm conditions are expected again tomorrow, but increasing cloud cover should keep most of the Midsouth at least a few degrees cooler than today. A broad low amplitude trough will shift across the Mississippi River by midday tomorrow. At the surface, an associated cold front will move quickly move across the Midsouth.
701 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Temperatures will soar into the 70s and skies will become mostly to partly sunny this afternoon behind a warm front.
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A cold front was bisecting Kansas this afternoon with strong southerly winds gusting over 40 knots at times ahead of the front. Much cooler air is anticipated in the wake of the front with lows bottoming out near freezing across portions of central KS on Fri morning. Low temperatures early Sat morning will bottom out below freezing across all of central and south central KS including much of southeast KS and a freeze watch will remain in effect for much of the area. Low level flow will return to the southeast as we move into Sat allowing temperatures to moderate although values will remain well below normal for this time of year with highs in the low 50s.
850 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A strong high pressure system surface and aloft will keep near record warm weather across the region into Friday.
Moreso, areas of northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota should be the last to see precip come to an later tonight into early Friday as the upper trough axis pivots eastward and clears the region. This will help to push the last of the low overcast skies and any leftover precip early Friday morning east and southeastward.
737 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A strong high pressure system surface and aloft will keep near record warm weather across the region into Friday.
619 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A cold front will surge across the Mississippi River valley late tonight, reaching central Illinois shortly after daybreak Friday, and exiting the region early Friday afternoon. Clouds will also be increasing as a cold front from NW Missouri surges eastward late tonight. Readings will range from the upper 40s in NW IL to about 60 along the I-55 corridor - with temperatures falling into the lower-mid 40s by dusk.
636 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Much of the heavier precipitation will be out of the area by early evening, but some patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle will remain possible along with some light to briefly moderate snow. Northerly flow is expected on Friday ahead of incoming high pressure.
Also opted to increase thunder chances through the overnight hours due to increasing confidence in additional storms developing along and behind the cold front tonight. The cold front is expected to undercut the vast majority of storm development late tonight but even with that said, MUCAPE behind the front will still be in the 1500J/kg range which should allow for elevated thunderstorms to continue through the majority of the overnight hours.
737 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 High pressure ridging along the eastern seaboard and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico along with a board trough of low pressure over the Yucatan and the northwest Caribbean Sea continue nearly in place for the next 24 hours or so. Lows tonight drop to around 70 to the lower 70s with highs Fri mid to upper 80s. The local waters remain between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south and southwest for the next couple of days.
This will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will ultimately bring chances for showers and storms to the area tomorrow. Overnight lows will be well on the warm side compared to seasonal norms, ranging from the low to mid 60s.
856 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 High pressure will remain in control through Friday.
A cold front provides rain chances tonight and Saturday morning.
VFR develops 14-16z and then will watching for the cold front to moves through bringing gusty northerly winds and 2000-2500 ft deck with spotty rain/isolated showers and with the cold front slowing offshore and the upper support lagging may see some patchy light rain after 00z. Warm evening to start with and southeast and east winds will continue as the cold front move into the farthestmost northern sliver of Texas around 6 pm with quite a dewpoint gradient.
Tonight brings temperatures generally in the lower teens, with a few single digits possible in the Devils Lake Basin.
Dry weather continues today with slightly warmer temperatures.
(Today and tonight) The strong cold front continues to make steady progress across Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning. The cooler airmass will cover our entire forecast area by about 8 am. Where the sky clears, there will be a risk of frost or freezing temperatures tomorrow (Friday) night. We have issued a Freeze Watch where Saturday morning's low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30s F, and a Freeze Warning for areas expected to be in the 20s F.
Cold front makes it's way into the lakes region of southeast Texas around the noon hour. This activity will continue through the evening with the highest coverage happening across the southeastern portion of the region, then decrease overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating. The first of two cold fronts will be making its way through the region late Friday into early Saturday morning bringing slightly cooler and drier conditions for Saturday.
125 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Friday, followed by cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.
1124 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A strong high pressure system surface and aloft will keep near record warm weather across the region into Friday. After another warm day Friday, changes will be on the way as a cold front will slowly sag south into the state on late Friday and Saturday. The weekend will be cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the area. These cooler temperatures will linger into the upcoming work week.
The persistent easterly flow pattern in place is expected to continue through Friday as a nose of high pressure extends from northeast to southwest across the eastern US. At the upper levels, a weak ridge along the eastern US will begin to break down as a broad cyclonic flow moves in across the central US. Showers/storms will diminish by Friday night with loss of diurnal heating while at the surface, easterly flow will begin to let up as the nose of high pressure across the southeast US begins to weaken. Instead, the region will see isolated/scattered showers and storms and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
The cold front will push south through Texas today and move into south Texas around 00Z Saturday.
These troughs will continue to progress eastward today with the front pushing into NW AL later today. Overall, not any strong forcing but the thermodynamic profile should be sufficient for thunderstorm development later this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some models suggest, this low-level moisture may be sufficient enough for some drizzle throughout the day but have gone dry behind the front for now. Regardless, temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Cloud cover was increasing over eastern Kansas in response to the approach of a sharp cold front from the west. For tonight, temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s in most locations. Areas of south central Missouri may stay a bit warmer in the upper 30s.
(This evening through Friday) In response to the trough now crossing the northern Rockies, surface lee trough and gradient have increased across our area resulting in strong southerly winds. A cold front extending through central into southeast Kansas will accelerate into our area, in response to the aforementioned trough. These surging cold fronts with warm capping elevated mixed layer can struggle to produce convection and are sensitive to small variations in cap strength and moisture depth.
308 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 As of 2 AM the cold front has pushed through most of the FA leaving only our southern row of counties. Winds will be on the breezy side until surface ridging settles in over the region. Models have trended slightly downward with high temps today as cloud cover is forecasted to remain over much of the FA into the afternoon with highs being mostly in the low 50s. Most of the Caprock could see temps at or below freezing while across the Rolling Plains lows should stay above freezing. This will develop in response to a large upper level trough moving southward into the western CONUS. Breezy downsloping winds on Saturday afternoon will bring warmer temperatures than what will be seen today.
A broad mid to upper level trough continues to progess over northcentral to central CONUS through Friday eventually making its way towards the eastern CONUS. Additionally, an upper ridge over the southeast states begins to retreat into the western Atlantic as the upper trough expands into the central states. At the surface, the ridge located over the southeastern CONUS continues to persist overnight tonight maintaining a weak flow regime with winds coming out of the east northeast across the CWA. High temps on Friday will range from the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, another upper level trough begins to move into the northwestern CONUS on Saturday. Winds near the surface will shift to a northerly direction for a brief period as the weak cold front approaches the region.
Meanwhile to the west, a cold front extended across Kansas into Iowa. Lows tonight will range from around 40 over southeast Kansas to the lower 60s over far south central Missouri. Friday night and Saturday look to be quiet, cloudy and cool as a broad area of high pressure moves across the Upper Mississippi River valley region and extends its influence southward into Missouri.
Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight will allow for another night of freezing temperatures so have reissued the freeze warning for another night. This system will begin to pull colder air over northern Washington southward Friday night and Saturday which will begin to significantly lower snow levels so that some light snow will be possible even in the Lower Columbia Basin with some possible accumulations up to an inch. cold overnight low temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s with some single digits lows possible in the higher elevations.
A quasi-stationary front extends from low pressure centered over the OK panhandle this afternoon northeastward into southeastern Iowa. Some clearing is possible in our southwestern areas which should allow morning lows in this area to drop below freezing and therefore will continue the Freeze Warning which should be the last of it's kind for this season for that area. Overnight lows Friday into Saturday should put all of our counties into a hard freeze with lows expected in the upper teens to mid 20s as cold high pressure skirts overhead. Surface cold front has pushed into ERN KS/NW MO with sct TSRA activity along/behind the boundary.
This will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will ultimately bring chances for showers and storms to the area tomorrow. Overnight lows will be well on the warm side compared to seasonal norms, ranging from the low to mid 60s. This will make for a cooler day as well with highs only reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s.
216 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Cold front is working its way towards the mid state, and ahead of the front, chances for showers and some thunderstorms will increase during the day. The GFS soundings show the low level moisture hanging around until mid afternoon, with other models suggesting late morning or so.
112 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Weak high pressure and a coastal trough will persist across the area through the rest of this week. A weak cold front is expected to push across the region this weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal, bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s inland and the lower 70s closer to the coast. Weak high pressure will linger northeast of the area while a coastal trough persists nearby Friday through Saturday.
323 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The surface cold front finally exited southeast KS early this morning. Temperatures tonight will plunge into the mid 20s to near freezing across much of central, south central, and southeast KS. High pressure will build across the region today through tomorrow, while the upper flow turns more zonal.
333 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Strong cold front roughly along a Miami/Tulsa/Oilton line this morning. Cool but dry weather expected Saturday as high pressure begins to slide east.
Gulf moisture streaming northward and overrunning a surface warm front over southern Wisconsin should result in heavy rainfall totals, especially in east central Wisconsin.
Cold front currently entering northeast Oklahoma will move through the KBVO/KTUL/KRVS sites over the next few hours and the southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas sites toward 11-12Z. Also opted to increase thunder chances through the overnight hours due to increasing confidence in additional storms developing along and behind the cold front tonight. The cold front is expected to undercut the vast majority of storm development late tonight but even with that said, MUCAPE behind the front will still be in the 1500J/kg range which should allow for elevated thunderstorms to continue through the majority of the overnight hours.
149 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 A strong high pressure system surface and aloft will keep near record warm weather across the region into Friday. After another warm day Friday, changes will be on the way as a cold front will slowly sag south into the state on late Friday and Saturday. The weekend will be cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the area. These cooler temperatures will linger into the upcoming work week.
305 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The cold front has slipped past the area this morning with the remaining post-frontal band of showers moving slowly off to the east. Regional radars this morning showing a band of light precipitation occurring ahead of the short wave trough from northern Nebraska into southwest Minnesota. As the short wave trough continues to move to the east/northeast, the short term guidance suggests this band of light precipitation will hold together and may increase in intensity underneath a weak band of frontogenesis in the 700-500 mb layer. This band should exit the area early this afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in from the northwest for the overnight hours.
341 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 An upper level trough is currently moving through the region, bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries. Snow should increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day on Saturday, with the highest snowfall amounts likely occurring in north central SD where storm total amounts of 6 inches or more will be possible.
1117 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 A strong high pressure system surface and aloft will keep near record warm weather across the region into Friday. After another warm day Friday, changes will be on the way as a cold front will slowly sag south into the state on late Friday and Saturday. The weekend will be cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the area. These cooler temperatures will linger into the upcoming work week.
Cold front progged to reach our northwest counties by 00Z Friday evening then be east of the Plateau by 12Z Saturday morning, with highest precip chances along and ahead of the boundary. South winds will increase after 14Z ahead of an approaching cold front and isold -SHRA will form.
An easterly low-level flow will remain in place for the next few days with high pressure to our north and low pressure to our southwest near the Yucatan.
1108 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Much of the heavier precipitation will be out of the area by early evening, but some patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle will remain possible along with some light to briefly moderate snow. Northerly flow is expected on Friday ahead of incoming high pressure. Friday night into Saturday an upper level trough digs into the Rockies as low pressure at the surface develops in CO. Do not expect any snowfall Friday night as flow in the lower levels continues to support dry air advection from the east. By about late Saturday morning the low levels begin to saturate in central SD and this saturation gradually spreads across the area through the afternoon into the evening.
A cold front will move through tonight, bringing a round of showers and possible thunderstorms followed by a much cooler weekend. It will become breezy ahead of an approaching cold front later this afternoon into tonight. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms arrive with the cold front tonight. The cold front will exit the North Country early Saturday morning and any showers will end by mid-day. Northwest flow will usher in cooler and drier air for Saturday.
Forecast is on track this evening with surface ridging shifting east of the forecast area resulting in southerly boundary layer flow. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 63 76 60 77 / 30 30 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 62 72 58 75 / 20 30 50 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 78 62 71 57 75 / 20 40 40 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 59 71 56 72 / 20 30 50 20 20.
417 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Current observations show a strong cold front is currently moving into the northern Permian Basin and should be south of I-20 by sunrise. High pressure behind the front will settle into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight bringing lows down around 10 degrees below normal with even a light freeze possible in northern Lea County.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 64 74 59 76 / 10 40 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 62 70 57 73 / 10 40 60 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 62 70 57 73 / 10 50 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 59 70 55 71 / 10 30 70 10 20.
Cold front was entering northwest Arkansas and will clear the remainder of the southeast OK and western AR sites by 15-16Z. /Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Strong cold front roughly along a Miami/Tulsa/Oilton line this morning. Cool but dry weather expected Saturday as high pressure begins to slide east.
After this band moves out of the area, skies will become partly cloudy as high pressure builds over Nebraska. High temperatures will be on the 30s during the afternoon with low temperatures in the low 20s and upper teens overnight. On Saturday, a positively tilted longwave trough will strengthen over the Rocky Mountains and move east over the Northern Great Plains.
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 An upper level trough is currently moving through the region, bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries. Snow should increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day on Saturday, with the highest snowfall amounts likely occurring in north central SD where storm total amounts of 6 inches or more will be possible.
An area of low pressure outlooked by NHC is located directly to our south (near Grand Cayman island) with a rather organized appearance of shower and thunderstorm activity on GOES-East satellite imagery.
Cold front currently approaching the Pecos River and moving south at 25 mph. /issued 417 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Current observations show a strong cold front is currently moving into the northern Permian Basin and should be south of I-20 by sunrise. High pressure behind the front will settle into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight bringing lows down around 10 degrees below normal with even a light freeze possible in northern Lea County.
642 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The surface cold front finally exited southeast KS early this morning. Temperatures tonight will plunge into the mid 20s to near freezing across much of central, south central, and southeast KS. High pressure will build across the region today through tomorrow, while the upper flow turns more zonal.
Cold front is working its way towards the mid state, and ahead of the front, chances for showers and some thunderstorms will increase during the day. The GFS soundings show the low level moisture hanging around until mid afternoon, with other models suggesting late morning or so.
602 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The cold front has slipped past the area this morning with the remaining post-frontal band of showers moving slowly off to the east. Regional radars this morning showing a band of light precipitation occurring ahead of the short wave trough from northern Nebraska into southwest Minnesota. As the short wave trough continues to move to the east/northeast, the short term guidance suggests this band of light precipitation will hold together and may increase in intensity underneath a weak band of frontogenesis in the 700-500 mb layer. This band should exit the area early this afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in from the northwest for the overnight hours.
A cold front will move into the area from the northwest during the evening and slowly push southeast overnight.
Expect a drying trend overnight as a cooler and dry airmass filters in.
649 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 (Today and tonight) As of 3 AM, a cold front was moving south across the northern Big Country. Temperatures will be much colder across the area tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 40s along the I-10 corridor.
temperatures had dropped to the freezing mark along a line from the Syracuse and Kendall area through Scott City and Dighton.
Snow comes in from the west late this afternoon/early evening, then spreads east overnight along the edge of the arctic high pressure.
Today's forecast high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s under partly sunny skies, with an overnight low in the low 70s except for mid 70s along coastal Martin and St.
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 (Today and tonight) The strong cold front continues to make steady progress across Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning. The cooler airmass will cover our entire forecast area by about 8 am. Where the sky clears, there will be a risk of frost or freezing temperatures tomorrow (Friday) night. We have issued a Freeze Watch where Saturday morning's low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30s F, and a Freeze Warning for areas expected to be in the 20s F.
/issued 308 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ As of 2 AM the cold front has pushed through most of the FA leaving only our southern row of counties. Winds will be on the breezy side until surface ridging settles in over the region. Models have trended slightly downward with high temps today as cloud cover is forecasted to remain over much of the FA into the afternoon with highs being mostly in the low 50s. Most of the Caprock could see temps at or below freezing while across the Rolling Plains lows should stay above freezing. This will develop in response to a large upper level trough moving southward into the western CONUS. Breezy downsloping winds on Saturday afternoon will bring warmer temperatures than what will be seen today.
Currently most areas are in the lower 70s. An approaching cold front will increase coverage of SHRA/TSRA after 19Z with MVFR cigs/vsbys at times.
A cold front provides rain chances tonight and Saturday morning. Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will propagate northeastward today and its associated, weakening cold front will cross the Ohio Valley late this evening. Dry weather returns for Saturday afternoon and night with high pressure tracking across Michigan and southern Ontario.