Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
313 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak area of low pressure situated over southern California will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains today. Otherwise dry weather will prevail over the district after this weekend as a strong ridge of High pressure builds over the state.
Weak upper low was tracking eastward across southern CA this morning and is progged to move into Arizona Monday. High pressure begins to build into the region to round out the Memorial Day weekend.
In addition recent water vapor imagery indicates an upper level low centered roughly across the northwest Bahamas islands. The upper level low is an extension of an upper level trough that extends from the mid-west into the southeast and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. The global models also indicate an upper level trough persisting across the southeastern states and across the Florida Straits and the Florida peninsula. with the presence of the upper level low and inherent uncertainties forecasting their effect on potential for convection. Also added slight chance of showers/thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters and Atlantic metro areas during the afternoon periods with the presence of the upper level trough.
351 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Westerly flow aloft will become southerly later today and tonight as an upper level low moves across southern California. Water vapor satellite imagery is showing a weak short wave trough over southwest New Mexico. As far as temperatures go, highs will be 2 to 6 degrees warmer today.
359 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will move across the area today and may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise fair weather is expected through Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Weak pre-frontal trough to push through forecast area this morning and early afternoon effectively scouring most low level moisture as it does. Still expect max temps in the lower to middle 80s with a run at a few upper 80s in the far east. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler along with less humid conditions as temps drop into the lower 60s and a few upper 50s possible.
Upper short wave trough will push through the state today, providing ample lift to trigger showers/thunderstorms. As the storms taper off overnight and the trough moves on to the east, high pressure will begin building back into the area. Upper ridging will become dominant throughout the course of the coming week.
Convection should gradually weaken as it progresses eastward and encounters the lower instability. A series of weak upper impulses will cross the Southern Plains over the northern fringe of a weak upper ridge over Mexico. These impulses will aid in the development of convective complexes each afternoon across the Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline. As the week progresses, the upper ridge will weaken and an upper trough currently off the California coast will slowly move eastward as it remains removed from the stronger westerlies.
Although a weak high pressure is overhead, the warmth and humidity will give enough instability for the possibility of at least isolated thunderstorms. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
Associated cold front with this wave begins to move into our northern counties around 21Z Monday and through our southern counties Monday evening. GFS showing much of the higher instability over in North Platte's area.
An upper level low pressure system over southern British Columbia will persist today, bringing onshore flow to southwest Washington and parts of northwest Oregon.
Weak upper level short wave trough over the west is helping prolong the storms. Overnight the nose of the low level jet and strong/deep isentropic lift will cause some isolated to scattered storms to develop south of Highway 40. Based on the low lapse rates, am not anticipating any severe storms tonight. Visible satellite this afternoon shows cu developing across the entire area but a bit more organized upstream near the Cheyenne Ridge. Latest runs of the hires models suggest isolated showers/thunderstorms will drift southeast from the Cheyenne Ridge before dissipating around sunset. A storm or two could briefly pulse up to near severe limits in that environment but overall the severe threat will be on the low end for Sunday afternoon.
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week.
An upper level trough will track north across northern New England Monday. High pressure will build into the area for midweek.
A low pressure system moving slowly east through the desert southwest will serve to keep unsettled conditions across portions of Utah through Monday. Strong high pressure aloft will follow for the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week.
This activity will gradually come to an end tonight as the low pressure system tracks northeast and away from the region. High pressure will settle in on Sunday. with a mostly dry and warmer day expected.
A weak cold front and upper trough will swing through the area today. This is deepening the marine layer along the coast and NASA/SPoRT nighttime microphysics RGB imagery is showing that marine stratus has moved into areas from Cape Blanco northward to the lower Umpqua Valley.
Temps in the upper 60s with dew points in the low to mid 60s and light SE winds. the first is the weak outflow from Bonnie in the higher moisture channels. The front is not expected to bring much cooler air with it, but Monday will see a slight drop in dewpoints. As high pressure builds in, these should bring dry weather and clearing skies.
Most of the storms will move off to the east by the late evening as the cold front moves through but a few may linger near Butte. There has been consistency for the trough to become a closed low pressure system on the east side of the Continental Divide by Monday. This low will clip Glacier National Park which will lower snow levels to around 6500 feet on Monday. Rain and high elevation snow chances will extend along the Divide into Monday night as the low moves off to the east.
Am only expecting isolated showers near the Idaho border and over the higher terrain of the Rocky Mountains for the remainder of this evening and overnight. The airmass will generally remain stable again Sunday although with low pressure approaching from the west, conditions over the Rockies will be increasingly unsettled. Then, conditions will cool as the low pressure moves over the region Monday and temperatures will drop back below normals.
On Sunday we will see the sea breezes develop early, by midday, as the low level flow will be rather light and should be enough moisture once again to see more scattered storms develop.
Further west, while the core of highest PV remains in the Middle Mississippi Valley, a channel of weakly +PV extends through the Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast. At the surface, we have Tropical Storm Bonnie off the GA/SC coasts, with ridging spreading down the Appalachians into the Tri-State region.
305 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Some drier air will filter in behind the cold front today, as surface dewpoints only expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s by this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a comfortable night with lows dropping into the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible.
High pressure ridging aloft running from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Lower Mississippi Valley will coincide with general anticyclonic flow in the atmospheric low levels in the vicinity to bring mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies through the short term period. Meanwhile, the continuing slow trend toward summer-like conditions will persist with highs near (or touching) 90 degrees this afternoon and perhaps a degree or two warmer tomorrow. The upper level ridge over the region will begin to break down a bit by late Monday into Monday night and by then there is a slight prospect of convection developing in a better juxtaposition of ingredients upstream to make it downstream into my western zones before dissipating.
This low will move into Western Montana tonight. Today, zonal flow over Northeast Montana and a weak ridge in Southern Saskatchewan will bring about a warm, dry day with mostly light westerly wind. Tonight, off to the west, the digging trough will begin to back local upper flow around to the southwest, introducing moisture and instability to the local area. Monday, the upper low begins to close off and gain strength, sending a more distinct cold front across the local area.
Another mild day is anticipated with highs in the low to mid 80s.
313 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak low pressure system moving through Southern California today will bring patchy morning drizzle for coastal areas.
upper level ridge still hangs tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof approaches from the west. also have a backdoor front which will be edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds and cooler temps.
609 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A warm front will approach from the south today and then move north across the region late tonight through Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night.
347 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Upper ridge of high pressure will maintain fair weather across our region through Friday night.
403 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Dry weather and above normal temperatures are forecast to continue today through Friday as high pressure remains centered over New England. A cold front with limited moisture will provide a slight chance of showers Friday night.
206 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 The lead short wave in the broad upper trough extending from the intermountain west through the plains states continues to lift northeast over the Great Lakes this evening as the second short wave dives into the base of the trough overnight tonight. This second short wave trough begins to lift out across the Central and Northern High Plains during the day on Thursday. A colder high pressure area moves quickly into the central high plains behind a cold front by late Thursday.
212 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 The big short term event, is the cold front and its passage Friday pm. The main effects instead, look to be the tightening post fropa gradient, between the landfalling Hurricane Matthew, and high pressure incoming over our area.
High pressure will move farther east as a broad low pressure system pushes through central Canada. High pressure will briefly push the associated frontal boundary back north tomorrow, so dry conditions are expected on that day. Further out, dry and cooler weather will prevail as high pressure strengthens over the region once again. A cold front extending from Manitoba southward to Iowa and northwest Missouri is currently triggering some showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, some of which are currently entering central Indiana. Temperatures tonight are expected to be above normal with readings in the low 60s, generally stuck close to guidance. Tomorrow, the cold front associated with Canadian low will shift back north as high pressure strengthens over the Delmarva region. Rain chances will be short-lived though as high pressure quickly becomes re- established again behind the low.
420 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Upper ridge of high pressure will maintain fair weather across our region through Friday night.
156 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 A large 500 mb ridge with above normal lower tropospheric temperatures will dominate our region through Friday evening.
Dry and warm again today as High pressure continues over the southeast and southern Appalachians. Temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer.
142 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will remain over the New England States through Thursday. Low pressure will track northeast through the Western Great Lakes on Friday, pulling a cold front across the area during the evening. High pressure will build from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley over the weekend. High pressure to the east of the region will allow a south to southeast wind to continue through the night. High pressure will continue to ridge across the area on Thursday as low pressure tracks northeast through the Western Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. This will bring a cold front across the region Friday evening. However if it does occur it will likely be along the cold front Friday evening.
447 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 Today through Friday night, A persistent deep layer ridge and associated dry airmass with hot afternoon temperatures is making wildfire danger an increasing concern for the ArkLaMiss (see fire weather discussion).
40 Surface observations at 08Z showed temps mainly in the 70s and dewpoint temps in the low 70s. Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a broad trough over the western U. through the Midwest with an upper low over the Canadian Prairies. Overall drier air will push into the area on Friday ahead of the cold front due to boundary layer flow becoming more NE in response to the pressure gradient changing with Hurricane Matthew moving along the Atlantic coast of Florida.
450 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Upper trough will move over Colorado today. Temperatures are a little warmer than in our previous forecast, so we will hold snow levels at 7000 feet except down to near 6000 feet on the northern border.
High pressure will build southward into the region through early Friday.
Dry weather and warmer interior temperatures will prevail the rest of the week as high pressure moves over the region. High pressure filling in behind the recent system is bringing drier weather to northwest California for the rest of the week.
This fine line on radar was associated with a secondary cold front that worked across the area. This front will come back west some as a warm front today, with the low coming up from KC this afternoon to around Eau Claire this evening.
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Upper ridge of high pressure will maintain fair weather across our region through Friday night.
The warm front continues to lift northward into our area, with increasingly rich moisture becoming available which will contribute to high levels of instability. Bulk shear values around 50 knots will be supportive of supercells, and given the proximity the warm front, there is some concern that rotating storms could become surface based in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. There is some model discrepancy on how far north the warm front will lift, and how far west the instability will exist. Temps should drop into the lower to mid 30s across portions of eastern NE.
High pressure remains stacked across the Atlantic states and across TN and KY as well.
Upper trough axis continues to shift east into Wyoming today. Upper ridge begins to amplify into Idaho overnight. Arco desert coldest and most likely to see freeze with temps hovering just above freezing for most populated areas.
Tonight clearing skies and cold advection may product subfreezing temperatures in some lower elevation zones that have yet to receive a freeze.
255 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide cool, clear nights and warm days through Friday.
12z/18z short range models depict the nose of the low level jet as being further north. The weak front that moved through the area this morning will begin to lift into northern MO as a southwest-northeast oriented warm front this evening. The warm front will stall out along this line and create multiple clusters of storms on the southern side in the overnight hours. Showers and storms will hang around until Friday morning when the cold front finally moves through the area.
Blocking upper ridge will hold over the area through the end of the work week. Low to mid 80s will again be the norm today, with Friday highs maybe a degree or two cooler.
The core of coldest air being pulled around the broad low pressure circulation moves overhead tonight with 925mb temperatures between -1 and +3C.
At the surface, a cold front extended roughly from DGW-AIA, w/ temperatures still in the low-mid 50s south of the boundary over the southern Neb Panhandle. The strongest dynamics are already east of the I-80 summit; however, we will need to keep a close eye on webcams as surface temps already at or below freezing will support snow through the morning. Higher elevations along the Pine Ridge could be the main area to watch this morning for possible snowfall accumulations.
Only a few minor adjustments were made to the gridded elements during that time, namely to stretch the likely probability of measurable precipitation across the lower Keys today. However, will keep scattered coverage across the marine district west of the Seven Mile Bridge as that should be the instantaneous coverage through the course of the day. On his present course and with the official forecast track of Matthew, the cyclone should make its closest approach to the island chain east of Key Largo by mid afternoon with its core remaining well east of our service area.
319 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure remains stacked across the Atlantic states and across TN and KY as well.
Although, it appears there should be enough clearing and lighter winds to allow temps to fall into the low to mid 30s for much of north central SD into the James River valley. Will also be watching the low pressure system which begins pulling out into the Plains by 12Z Thursday. Mid level ridging builds east across the CWA through the vast majority of the period. Toward the end of the forecast, energy does exit the Rockies and moves east into the plains as a broad trof digs toward the Northern Plains.
But the primary feature will be the deep short wave trough sliding over the area tonight. This feature will be in cohorts with surface wave and then a strong cold front. Convection expected to rapidly expand over Nebraska and Iowa today and spread northeastward into the state this evening with the strong warm air advection ahead of the 850 trough. Will taper off pops quickly and increase winds in the wake of the cold front.
Slow-moving upper low now over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with cyclonic flow and below normal heights over MT. Temps have fallen to or below freezing at some locations, but cloud cover is helping to keep temps up. We will see gradually rising heights today as upper low to our northeast continues to fill and drift east. Any shower activity will decrease through the evening as flat ridging builds from the west.
201 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Thursday.
A strong cold front is progged to slide through western Kansas today moving into northern Kansas this morning, bisecting western Kansas this afternoon, then through the area by this evening. Lows tonight are progged to range from around freezing across portions of west central Kansas to lower 40s across south central Kansas.
Attention then focuses on an approaching cold front which should move into the Big Country after midnight and then approach the northern Concho Valley around sunrise. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front.
A cold front remained parked to the northwest, with showers and thunderstorms forming along and ahead of the front.
Models fairly evenly split whether storms will develop over Flint Hills/Southeast KS well in advance of front, or whether they will just be anchored in the vicinity of cold front.
weakened ridging aloft and some seabreeze forcing could lead to possible precip and have left POPs the same. the upper level ridge begins to build over the region again. however the surface pressure gradient will begin the tighten with the the cold front moving through central Texas.
Low temperatures Thursday morning will be milder, with low clouds retarding radiational cooling, ranging from near 40 in Hamilton county, to the lower 60s in Barber county. Any convection along the advancing boundary will be confined to the far SE zones near Medicine Lodge Thursday afternoon/evening, with the cold front passage expected to be dry elsewhere. Spectacular fall weather on Friday, with full sunshine and cooler temperatures in the 60s.
150 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure with dry weather lingering Thursday. Moisture from Matthew from the south and an approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance for rain into this weekend. High pressure will continue the dry weather across the forecast area through the near term period. With the high located to our NE, flow should generally be easterly, which will help keep afternoon temperatures running well above normal across the western slopes and lowlands. The area will be sandwiched between an upper trough approaching from the west and hurricane Matthew which should be moving north up the eastern seaboard.
Winds will gradually diminish across the north by late afternoon as the low pressure center continues to slowly push to the northeast. On Friday, a longwave upper level ridge to our west over Montana begins to flatten as it approaches the Northern Plains, transitioning to zonal flow across northern CONUS by the weekend.
Morning thunderstorms will diminish with additional thunderstorms late afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches. /Issued 302 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/ Current surface analysis indicates low pressure near EKH/SPG with a warm front arcing across northern OK and then northeast toward central MO. Storms should shift north of the region this morning as the warm front retreats north as well, leaving our area fairly quiet thru the bulk of the day. Cooler air behind the front will finally bring more seasonable temperatures to the region on Friday, with highs forecast to drop 20 degrees or so from today's expected highs.
Snow levels will be on the increase as warmer air gradually moves over the region.
An upper trough, currently digging toward the Four Corners region this morning, may provide some weak upper forcing at best later today but for now it looks like convergence along the fairly weak dryline will give us our best shot. Otherwise, temperatures will be hot once again today A decent cold front is expected Friday, bringing cooler temperatures brief gusty north winds to the forecast area. Despite the cold front, LL moisture looks to remain in place across the region.
A passing cold front will then bring another chance for scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening.
133 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide cool, clear nights and warm days through Friday.
As the day progresses, a cold front will move through Colorado and Kansas and push into the Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. The biggest questions will be if the moisture will stay in the Texas Panhandle or get pushed eastward into Oklahoma, and the timing of the cold front. Along with the cold front brings another night of temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the Oklahoma Panhandle.
A vigorous upper-level trough is moving into the southern Rockies this morning. Late in the evening, a cold front will be moving into the area from the north. The front will clear our southern counties before daybreak with a drier and cooler airmass moving in at the surface. The strong cold front will have cleared the area by daybreak on Friday resulting in strong winds persisting through the day. These winds will slowly relax through the day as surface ridging builds in behind the front. By late in the weekend, a trough moving across the southwestern US will be weakening but will be strong enough to draw low level moisture back into the region.
237 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 The big short term event, is the cold front and its passage Friday pm. The main effects instead, look to be the tightening post fropa gradient, between the landfalling Hurricane Matthew, and high pressure incoming over our area.
The cold front which is expected to focus this convection will accelerate towards the state, then will exit late.
A high pressure ridge will continue over the region today and tonight but will be weakening as Hurricane Matthew moves up along the south and central Florida east coast. Low temps tonight in the low to mid 60s interior and lower 70s along the coast.