Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A quiet night weather wise can be expected as high pressure at the surface moves off the east coast and a frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio valley southwest through the southern plains. Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 60 56 70 / 20 90 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 62 55 73 / 0 80 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 47 61 54 71 / 0 80 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 65 54 70 / 0 30 50 50.
339 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Main impacts continue with slow moving closed upper low today into Saturday and then two storm systems during the upcoming week that could bring additional winter weather to parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Closed upper low will translate slowly south/southeast today from southwest Oklahoma into north-central Texas. This shift in the precip will continue tonight into Saturday morning as upper low lifts northeast into Missouri.
313 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Cool northerly flow will hold across the area today on the back side of the slowly departing upper low just east of the area this morning. That is, upper ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and also off the southeast coast will favor an amplified mean trough over the central U. How systems progress through the trough remains handled quite differently, though after the most recent system there is general consensus favoring slower moving systems such as the ECMWF and CMC solutions vs the more progressive GFS/NAM.
Positive tilt mid-level trof will continue to advect toward the southeast overnight, as mid-level s/w ridge builds across the forecast area out ahead of the next trof digging into the northwest CONUS. Friday night lows should be relatively mild as warmer airmass slides into the western CWA just ahead of progressive frontal boundary. The period begins with a cold front moving across the area Saturday afternoon.
Quiet night so far across the area as the strong upper low that will bring us heavy rain is out in the southern Plains. PWAT values remain high per model soundings, and are extremely wet for this time of year, so heavy rain potential will remain even if the highest rainfall axis shifts to the west. Some models also showing as the warm front pushes further northward Saturday, we may have a short break late in the morning Saturday through mid afternoon or so before the cold front brings another round of rain late afternoon and evening Saturday.
1138 PM MDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Some cumulus clouds have developed over the higher terrain in northerly flow in the wake of yesterday's storm system. A few showers appeared on radar over the central high terrain mainly affecting the higher peaks with some light snow falling when looking at webcams. Still will remain under a dry northerly flow with high pressure building in to the west with temperatures getting closer to normal by Friday afternoon.
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 An upper level positively tilted trough was continuing to dig across the Front Range of the Rockies into the Southern Plains at mid afternoon. A surface cold front was located from the Ohio River across the Missouri Bootheel into a low over north central Texas. The upper low will become cut off over the Southern Plains on Friday. The rain should taper off tonight into Friday before increasing one again Friday night into Saturday as the upper low lifts northward. Still expecting the highest rainfall totals in the southwest corner of Missouri where another 1. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s with afternoon highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 50s. An upper level ridge begins building off the West Coast putting the area into northwest flow.
435 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 High pressure continues to retreat from the local area as low pressure begins to develop over the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level trough with axis extending from the eastern part of the Dakotas down to northeastern New Mexico will progress east through the rest of the day with northerly flow over the Tri-State area.
Do observe subsidence showing up on forecast soundings in the BEH area later Friday and that will coincidence with decreasing clouds from northwest areas we head into the overnight and high pressure passes overhead.
A large trough will establish itself over central Canada and the Central U. An upper level low will be found over Hudson Bay while the base of the trough will be found across the southern Rockies and southern Plains.
Highs will be in the lower 50s today, which is right around normal for late October. Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees warmer. Early morning satellite imagery showed a narrow H500 trough across the central US extending down to the panhandles of TX/OK, with a broad ridge upstream over the spine of the Rockies. This ridge will shift eastward over the next 36 hours, and a low level thermal ridge will move over the Upper Midwest. Winds will decrease Saturday evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Clouds will slowly exit south central Kansas this morning as an upper level low deepens and slowly moves across central Oklahoma. Given the light winds and the temperatures forecast late day near the top of the mixed layer from the NAM, GFS, and RAP the highs today in the mid 50s still look on track. Temperatures early Saturday morning will range from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees Warmer temperatures return on Saturday as a westerly downslope flow across the Central Rockies improves. A cold front will cross southwest Kansas Saturday night as an upper level trough approaches the Central Rockies. As this cold front crosses southwest Kansas Saturday night this will bring an end to this very brief warming trend.
Warmer temperatures and lighter winds are expected on Friday and Saturday.
This is short lived with the cold front still expected to move through the CWA early Saturday. The period opens with an upper trough transitioning over the Dakotas. QPF does reflect this lower chance scenario. At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will dominate with very deep troughing aloft.
935 PM MDT Thu Oct 24 2019 01z surface analysis showed developing warm front from central MT into eastern WY. Compared to the 00z KUNR sounding, the 00z KRIW sounding showed the warmer 850-700mb air that is in store for the CWA tomorrow. Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge extending from the Pacific offshore waters by CA across the West Coast with an upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Rockies. This upper ridge will flatten and breakdown the next 24 hours as it shifts eastward over the Northern Plains early Friday as the next upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West by late Friday. This will promote highs tomorrow to be 10-20 degrees warmer than today.
Upper low/deep trough over the southern plains will move slowly into the TN Valley into early sat, taking a faster pace up into the OH valley Sat night. That is followed by a warm front on Sat, then finally a passing cold front late Sat night. Vertical velocity stays fairly strong into Sat afternoon, although they may be a break in the rain early Sat as we move into the warm sector behind the warm front. Behind this cold front, we do drop into a dry start to the workweek, but progressive flow will bring small chances for showers back possible as early as Tue afternoon but more so Tue night into Wed night as another front passes. We may see temps dip near freezing Thu morning across the north but a quick warm up is on tap for early Fri.
Anyway, temperatures for this morning still appear to be on track with temperatures around sunrise to be in the low 20s along the WI border and west. Despite high pressure moving through the Great Lakes region, a short wave is progged to develop on the leeside of the Canadian Rockies this afternoon, reaching Lake Winnipeg tonight.
Highs will top out in the upper 50s to near 60 today and be warmer for Saturday into the mid and upper 60s. Enjoy these couple of days while they last, because beginning Saturday night a big change is coming to the area! A potent cold front will move into the area Saturday evening.
317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 A strong upper low passing across the Panhandle early this morning will slowly move along the Red River today before lifting into AR Saturday. As it moves east high pressure will build in from the west.
/issued 313 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019/ A cold front has pushed through portions of Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon as winds have turned around to the north or northeast at Corning, Arkansas and Kennett, Missouri. Rain will begin to diminish from west to east across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday Night as the low pressure system lifts off to the northeast into the Ohio Valley.
1125 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 A dying cold front will stall over northwest Pennsylvania Friday, then push south of the state Friday night.
Warmer air will gradually build into the region, ahead of a cold front which will push across the region on Saturday. Increasing southwest to south winds aloft will lead to breezy conditions by this afternoon and tonight, especially in the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota where nighttime gusts could top 30 mph. Despite the wet soil conditions, temperatures on our dry/sunny days have favored the higher end of guidance. Increasing northwest winds move into our western counties by Saturday afternoon as the cold front pushes east, so these areas may see temperatures start to fall off from midday highs through the mid to late afternoon.
High pressure will move northeastward away from the area today as low pressure deepens over the western Gulf States. Upper level ridging will limit the eastward progression of the system and corresponding moisture. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 70s in the western Midlands to the upper 80s in the eastern Midlands and southern CSRA. Upper ridge centered offshore with deep low over the southern Plains. Precipitable water early in the day across the region appears relatively low with deeper moisture from the Gulf coast across Alabama into Tennessee ahead of cold front. Isentropic lift and moisture flux will increase Saturday night as a weak warm front moves into the area.
An upper trough sits over most of the CONUS as ridging builds over the west coast. This ridge pushing eastward will set up some WAA over the area, warming us up to near normal over the next 48 hours. Will be watching a pretty potent cold front moving across the CWA on Saturday. Rather mild air ahead of this front, so there still should be time to get into the low 50s across the eastern CWA.
A closed upper level low will develop over the Red River Valley of TX/OK by this evening and then move northeast across Missouri and into Illinois over the next 48 hours. Besides being a complete washout on Saturday, temperatures will be cool with highs struggling to make it out of the lower 50s and a gusty northeast wind will make it feel pretty raw outside.
/issued 435 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ High pressure continues to retreat from the local area as low pressure begins to develop over the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure builds in and dominates into Saturday morning. Positive tilt mid level trough axis swings through this morning with anticyclonic flow becoming dominant this afternoon into tonight. Jet related AC/CI cruising northeast from Mid Miss VLY into the eastern Lakes ahead of the trough. With the high still in control tonight with light winds, it will be chilly.
523 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a positive-tilted closed upper low over the TX panhandle. A baroclinic leaf signature appeared to be forming between the upper low and a 150KT upper jet over the mid-MS River valley. For today, the closed upper low will deepen and become neutrally- tilted as it lifts east through the Red River valley.
Otherwise, should see a return of 50s to near 60 across the lower elevations, and 30s and 40s for the mountains. Lee trough deepens overnight along the eastern slopes, so some increasing westerly winds will keep temperatures slightly warmer along the lower eastern slopes and adjacent plains tonight.
359 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected today through Saturday.
408 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Transitory ridge will be moving through over the next 24 hours before another very cold and deep trough digs into the West over the weekend. Violin plots seem to indicate any bias correction added to models or guidance is on the warmer side and moved away from this direction and lowered most areas a few degrees today. Saturday will be the nicest day of the forecast with some mixing anticipated ahead of the digging trough. Deterministic med range models continue to be frustratingly out of sync in the upcoming week dealing with this very anomalous cold and deep trough settling across the lower latitudes.
Positive tilt mid level trough axis swings through this morning with anticyclonic flow becoming dominant this afternoon into tonight. Jet related AC/CI cruising northeast from Mid Miss VLY into the eastern Lakes ahead of the trough. With the high still in control tonight with light winds, it will be chilly.
Passing high pressure will keep winds on the light side across most of Lake Michigan through tonight. Winds will remain a bit gusty from the northwest to southwest across the northern third of the lake due to a lingering pressure gradient to the north of the high pressure ridge. Passing low pressure will likely bring gusty winds later Saturday through Saturday night, with the likelihood of Small Craft conditions in the nearshore waters. High pressure builds in and dominates into Saturday morning. Positive tilt mid level trough axis swings through this morning with anticyclonic flow becoming dominant this afternoon into tonight. Jet related AC/CI cruising northeast from Mid Miss VLY into the eastern Lakes ahead of the trough. With the high still in control tonight with light winds, it will be chilly.
540 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected today through Saturday.
/issued 523 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a positive-tilted closed upper low over the TX panhandle. A baroclinic leaf signature appeared to be forming between the upper low and a 150KT upper jet over the mid-MS River valley. For today, the closed upper low will deepen and become neutrally- tilted as it lifts east through the Red River valley.
After a very cold start this morning, temperatures have started warming up, with all but a few locations (Artesia, Guadalupe Pass, and Marfa) now above freezing. /issued 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ A strong upper low passing across the Panhandle early this morning will slowly move along the Red River today before lifting into AR Saturday. As it moves east high pressure will build in from the west.
534 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Transitory ridge will be moving through over the next 24 hours before another very cold and deep trough digs into the West over the weekend. Violin plots seem to indicate any bias correction added to models or guidance is on the warmer side and moved away from this direction and lowered most areas a few degrees today. Saturday will be the nicest day of the forecast with some mixing anticipated ahead of the digging trough. Deterministic med range models continue to be frustratingly out of sync in the upcoming week dealing with this very anomalous cold and deep trough settling across the lower latitudes.
/issued 339 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Main impacts continue with slow moving closed upper low today into Saturday and then two storm systems during the upcoming week that could bring additional winter weather to parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Closed upper low will translate slowly south/southeast today from southwest Oklahoma into north-central Texas. This shift in the precip will continue tonight into Saturday morning as upper low lifts northeast into Missouri.
Warmer than average conditions will persist across the district through Saturday.
401 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected today through Saturday.
321 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge over the northern plains of the CONUS which are nosing into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A large trough has set up over British Columbia with the cold front between the two large airmasses sharpening over southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan. Farther west a very large ridge has developed over the northeast Pacific. Today: A ridge with warm air advection will move through the area today allowing highs to rise up into the 60s and 70s under southwest to west winds. Tonight: By the evening hours the ridge will advect out and the cold front will move in with a strong developing jet aloft.
/issued 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ A strong upper low passing across the Panhandle early this morning will slowly move along the Red River today before lifting into AR Saturday. As it moves east high pressure will build in from the west.
/issued 313 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Cool northerly flow will hold across the area today on the back side of the slowly departing upper low just east of the area this morning. That is, upper ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and also off the southeast coast will favor an amplified mean trough over the central U. How systems progress through the trough remains handled quite differently, though after the most recent system there is general consensus favoring slower moving systems such as the ECMWF and CMC solutions vs the more progressive GFS/NAM.
The moistening of the lower levels will continue and more precip will begin reaching the surface, and the current PoPs/Wx depiction for the remainder of today looks reasonable with this scenario. Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 58 72 56 / 90 100 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 56 75 59 / 80 90 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 55 73 57 / 80 90 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 53 71 59 / 30 50 30 90 TN.
Temperatures will gradually warm and the winds will subside the next couple of days as high pressure influences the region.
Dry conditions are expected through Saturday as Pacific high pressure dominates Great Basin weather. A low pressure system will pass through Nevada late in the weekend, bringing some gusty winds, a few showers, and much cooler temperatures.
Sounding data from XMR this AM shows ample moisture residing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, with a developing inversion above 800MB.
130 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Bright, sunny latter October day out there across the region thanks to high pressure drifting across southern WI/northern IL this afternoon. South/southwesterly winds across the area on the backside of the high and sunshine helping temperatures recover from chilly overnight lows in the teens to mid-20s. The area will be between departing high pressure into the Great Lakes region and low pressure moving through southern Saskatchewan/ Manitoba. An increase in clouds will be noted through the day Saturday as a closed low lifts northward out of the mid-Mississippi Valley into central IL. Meanwhile a cold front will make its way into central MN which will keep warm air advection going. Plan on highs in the lower/middle 50s.
Currently, upper low is progressing along the Red River valley, and will track northeast across northern Arkansas on Saturday. The highest rains of over 7" have been recorded at McAlester but that appears to be a relatively isolated event.
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Light to occasionally moderate rain will continue to fall into the evening, as an upper low tracks across southern Oklahoma. /issued 339 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Main impacts continue with slow moving closed upper low today into Saturday and then two storm systems during the upcoming week that could bring additional winter weather to parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Closed upper low will translate slowly south/southeast today from southwest Oklahoma into north-central Texas. This shift in the precip will continue tonight into Saturday morning as upper low lifts northeast into Missouri.
High pressure will move northeastward away from the area today as low pressure deepens over the western Gulf States and onshore flow increases. Upper level ridging will limit the eastward progression of Tropical Depression 17, which should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 70s in the western Midlands to the low 80s in the eastern Midlands and southern CSRA. Upper ridge centered offshore with deep low over the southern Plains. Precipitable water early in the day across the region appears relatively low with deeper moisture from the Gulf coast across Alabama into Tennessee ahead of cold front. Isentropic lift and moisture flux will increase Saturday night as a weak warm front moves into the area.
The NHC earlier named TD 17 in the western Gulf of Mexico, and this system will race northward overnight and combine with a low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains to bring us a rainy Friday & Saturday.
This the result of building low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries moving into the cntrl MS River Valley by the early afternoon hrs on Sat. This low pressure system will eventually push newd into the cntrl Great Lakes Region on Sun morning, dragging a cold front across the mid state region Sat night. Mid state region should remain dry Sun thru Tue due to transitioning sfc ridging influences. Highs generally in the low to mid 70s. Behind mentioned sfc frontal passage, lows around freezing will be possible Thu night and Fri night. The NHC earlier named TD 17 in the western Gulf of Mexico, and this system will race northward overnight and combine with a low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains to bring us a rainy Friday & Saturday.
A cold front will swing through our area Saturday night. The low level flow will be strengthening from the southeast and downslope will help to dry things out later tonight into Saturday, before precipitation picks back up Saturday night ahead of and near the front. It looks like we may experience mountain wave enhancement of the winds later tonight through much of Saturday night in the usual higher elevation and foothill locations, so will upgrade the high wind watch in the TN eastern mountains to a warning.
Expect clear conditions to continue through the overnight before some cloud cover increases across southeast portions of the area as the low slides north by Saturday morning. As the low slides north, return flow will allow for weak warm air advection into the state and temperatures will generally be a few degrees warmer than what we have seen for today. Dry conditions are still expected for the area through Saturday with continued easterly track of the low other than the chance for a light shower or two over Davis or Wapello counties late Saturday afternoon. This system will be pushed off to the northeast as an approaching longwave trough pushes across the western US towards the heartland.
Cold front has pushed off into the Gulf and has begun to merge with Tropical Storm Olga well out into the Gulf. Where skies do clear, temperatures could drop into the 40s but may hold steady in the low 50s under the cloud cover.
1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Rain, rain, and more rain will continue into the afternoon hours as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streams northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system. The exception will be areas southeast of Tupelo, Mississippi where temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 60s. /issued 523 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a positive-tilted closed upper low over the TX panhandle. A baroclinic leaf signature appeared to be forming between the upper low and a 150KT upper jet over the mid-MS River valley. For today, the closed upper low will deepen and become neutrally- tilted as it lifts east through the Red River valley.