Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After any early morning storms come to an end, oppressive heat and humidity will be noted on Saturday as highs reach the lower to middle 90s and heat index readings climb well above 100 degrees. Given air temperatures expected to reach the lower to middle 90s and dewpoints climbing above 70, afternoon heat index values will reach 105 to 110 degrees across the board.
252 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 An active morning of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Keys and the Gulf side waters has transitioned into a mostly sunny afternoon. Mean layer ridging centered over the Mississippi River Valley and the western North Atlantic will wobble about for the next seven days. Low level ridging centered near Bermuda will reach west across Florida, maintaining a healthy SFC gradient across the Keys.
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 A weak cold front scoots across northern counties today. High pressure rebuilds tonight. Saturday a ridge persists across the southern areas of the state keeping the area in a mostly quiet typical summer pattern.
1012 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Sent an update this morning through the next 24 hours, to give more detail and add higher PoPs due to repeated model consensus and greater confidence for timing and placement of thunderstorms tonight with the advance of the cold front. ----BMickelson Previous discussion: Hot and dry conditions expected again today as the upper ridge shifts east and flattens out. High temperatures will be approaching 100 with RH dropping into the low teens, especially across the south. Behind the front, with cooler temperatures, good humidity recovery and the potential for a few thunderstorms, fire concerns will diminish.
High pressure remains right over the top of Arizona this morning and will remain over the area through the day.
Forecast Discussion: At 19Z, water vapor imagery and mid-level analysis shows a large ridge in place over the Four Corners region and a quasi-zonal flow pattern across the northern CONUS. Closer to home, low pressure is noted on sfc obs in western KS.
An upper trough and weak cold front are bringing a variety of weather across the Northern Rockies today.
High pressure will continue to largely influence current aviation weather for the time being. The lower cloud deck to gradually mix out a few hour after sunrise while cumulus clouds develop closer to the coast in the vicinity of KHRL and KBRO.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today in most locations as the airmass further warms under a mostly sunny sky.
VCTS for LCH/LFT/ARA with a PROB30 2319/2323 for TSRA at LFT/ARA with the higher SHRA/TSRA chances over Acadiana region.
739 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Weak cold front become diffuse over the northern counties tonight. High pressure builds tonight. Saturday a ridge persists across the southern areas of the state keeping the area in a mostly quiet typical summer pattern.
Temperatures will be similar or slightly cooler for Saturday, with highs reaching near-normal values.
Moisture appears highest from east- central Ga into the Low Country SC where precipitable water near 2 inches. Perhaps a weak short wave could rotate around ridge into the area from NC in the afternoon. Temperatures a degree or two higher than today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows in the low 70s.
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 A weak cold front has sagged southward into central NE westward through southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Upper flow will remain westerly aloft Saturday as upper level ridging is suppressed somewhat southward across the Southern Plains. A cold front will surge southeast across the area on the backside of the low Saturday afternoon.
The main stories, at least through the weekend, will be the extreme heat that will recur tomorrow ahead of a cold front, and the chance for some potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.
With the movement of the ridge eastward, cloud cover will decrease, and temperature trend will gradually warm.
Models in fairly good agreement that a cold front and its associated scattered thunderstorms will move through northeast Montana tonight, bringing much needed relief.
701 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Currently monitoring the International border as a storm as fired along the cold front just north of the border. Hand analysis at 21z showed a moisture pool north of Highway 2 between a warm front in the central and the cold front in Canada. This is where we are watching for storm development when this cold front slides south into North Dakota. Cumulus clouds are also along the warm front in central North Dakota, not sure if storms can fire along this being it is already warm there. After any remaining convection departs the region Saturday morning expect decreasing clouds, northerly surface winds and cooler temps with highs from the mid 70s north to low 80s south. With an upper low over Hudson Bay, flow aloft over our region remains northwesterly initially.
642 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Tonight) Afternoon temperatures currently range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
The weak upper level trough currently digging into Northern California will quickly lift northeast through Saturday morning, which will allow temperatures to cool a few degrees back to near the daily normal today. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that high pressure will quickly build back over the West Coast and Eastern Pacific.
A quiet night is in store for the area as weak high pressure remains in control. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and the North Carolina counties. Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast regions. With a drier air mass in place this forecast period will be fairly dry with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and the North Carolina counties.
Atlantic high pressure will promote light winds predominantly from the south to southeast overnight.
848 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Weak cold front become diffuse over the northern counties tonight. High pressure builds tonight. Saturday a ridge persists across the southern areas of the state keeping the area in a mostly quiet typical summer pattern.
1024 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Currently - The Keys are tucked in the the southwestern flank of the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate Keys weather. Expect overnight lows to fall broadly in the lower 80s with dew points maintaining the mid 70s. A ridge across Florida will maintain east to southeasterly breezes through the overnight period.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Upper ridging will mostly be over the southern half of the country today and Sunday.
(Saturday through Sunday) Large scale upper-ridge extending from the desert southwest to the southern Appalachians to maintain hot and dry conditions across the region today into Sunday. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge to allow for high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s today. However, due to increased instability and mixing associated with a weakness in the upper ridge, afternoon high temperatures will average in the mid 90s, keeping heat index values at or below 105 degrees. Otherwise, the upper-ridge will strengthen across the ArkLaTex on Sunday allowing for continued hot and dry conditions with afternoon temperatures near 100 degrees.
246 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to translate eastward throughout the day today, resulting in a net increase in subsidence (which is already evident on water vapor imagery this morning) across the region. The forecast therefore remains dry with temperatures peaking in the middle 90s across the Caprock while breaching 100 degrees in the low Rolling Plains.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) As we progress through the weekend, the upper ridge currently positioned across the Four Corners will expand eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley by 12z Sunday. High temperatures today will generally be the same as yesterday, though less cloud cover will make today a few degrees warmer across the Permian Basin. As the ridge expands through Saturday, afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be limited to the Davis Mountains.
High pressure will be building in through the day today into tomorrow.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A weak broad mid-upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico to combine with some limited moisture may spark an isolated shower or a thunderstorm later today especially along the sea breeze. Rain chances for Sunday drop back to 10 percent or less as the mid-upper trough drifts southwest over Mexico on the southern periphery of the dominate 500mb ridge.
236 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 In the wake of a cold front yesterday evening/last night, cooler conditions are expected over the area today, with highs in the upper 70s to 80s.
(Today through Sunday) The upper level ridge centered across the Southwest U. Beneath the ridge, a weak inverted 500mb trough is moving into South Texas and a pool of 1.
Flow has turned northerly in the far west with a nice fall rise couplet over northeast MT into western SD indicating a continued southward push to the cold front over western ND early this morning. Also, additional strong to severe convection in the north seems to be a low probability behind the exiting MCS and a southward sagging cold front. By this evening convection is expected to be well east of the area with drier and cooler air building over the state. With an upper low over Hudson Bay, flow aloft over our region remains northwesterly initially.
As the low-level jet/moisture transport axis veers and shifts eastward ahead of the approaching front on Saturday, short range guidance suggests convection developing across the Dakotas will spread east into Minnesota. The HREF mean SBCAPE reaches 3000-4000 J/kg across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin, south of a warm front. Deep layer shear increases through the day with low-level shear increasing through the evening as the low-level jet strengthens from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Some supercell/QLCS tornado threat could develop, especially for eastern areas as the low-level shear increases. The QLCS tornado threat may be enhanced near the warm front/low-level boundaries, especially for more north-south oriented line segments, given the 0-3 km shear orientation.
A better chance for storms will come on Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front pushes south across the area. On Sunday, the cold front moving in from the northwest will make its way into IL. So, have includes those zones in a Heat Advisory as highs will likely be in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid 70s.
This allows for upper ridging which otherwise extends across the southeastern states to strengthen somewhat, although is limited by an upper trof/upper low which meanwhile drifts from the far western Atlantic towards the coast of the Carolinas to Florida. Expect a typical diurnal convective cycle for Sunday as while the MCV will have departed and upper ridging built somewhat over the area, daytime heating and the sea breeze (and possibly some boundaries left over from the previous day) will lead to scattered convective development. Lows tonight and Saturday night range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 into the lower 90s, then highs on Sunday will be mostly 90 to 95 with heat index values ranging from 100-106.
Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day with winds from a southerly direction due to a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado.
The resulting shear can better organize storms over the high terrain before pushing them off into the desert low country. Cooler temperatures ahead.
The cooler airmass over the region will help to keep relative humidities from reaching critical values tomorrow afternoon, and therefore keeping fire weather concerns low.
(Today and tonight) Hot and try conditions are expected again today as high pressure aloft remains steadfast over the area and holds back any real chances of precipitation or thunderstorm development.
skies are expected to become mostly clear with a few passing high clouds as low/mid pressure heights begin to rise in response to high pressure starting to expand over the region.
Temporary reload of trough as northwest Canadian vortex digs through backside of trough.
/Issued 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ /Through Sunday/ Now that the upper disturbance responsible for cloud cover and a bit of rainfall over the past couple of days has vacated the area, the ridge will be allowed to build eastward, squashing any rain chances for our forecast area this weekend.
Challenge for Sunday is the position of the weak cold front which looks to sag southward across central Kansas. Also will add portions of central Kansas along the highway 56 corridor as higher dew points/moisture pooling just north of the front may also send heat indices above 100 again. Regarding precip and convective chances: through early this evening, around 1500 j/kg MLcape near the higher PWAT axis and a uncapped airmass may allow for isolated showers/storms.
Look for cooler and drier weather for Saturday with lighter winds. Models in fairly good agreement that a cold front and its associated scattered thunderstorms will move through northeast Montana tonight, bringing much needed relief. Sunday night, another low pressure disturbance from Washington state will sweep through - but this time it will be on more of a SE trajectory.
Moisture appears highest from east- central Ga into the Low Country SC where precipitable water near 2 inches. Perhaps a weak short wave could rotate around ridge into the area from NC in the afternoon. Temperatures a degree or two higher than today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows in the low 70s. Temps aloft slightly warmer may result in some capping. Warming trend should continue with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridge is expected to build more over the region. This will allow seasonal temperatures and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms each day, although some of the coverage should depend on the overall strength of the upper ridge.
A quiet night is in store for the area as weak high pressure remains in control.
154 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Current surface map places weak low across northwest South Dakota with cold front extending back into northern Wyoming. Cold front slides through western South Dakota this morning. High pressure pushes into the Dakotas tonight. Broad upper trof settles in across the Northern Plains this week, shunting the heat south and west of the area. A cold front will push through the area after early Saturday morning, after 10-11z, with gusty northwest winds continuing through the day Saturday.
(Today through Sunday) High pressure is the dominant weather feature both at the surface and aloft.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ Now that the upper disturbance responsible for cloud cover and a bit of rainfall over the past couple of days has vacated the area, the ridge will be allowed to build eastward, squashing any rain chances for our forecast area this weekend.
High pressure then drops in from the north, and will be the dominant feature over the area this afternoon through the day Sunday.
Flat H500 ridging centered just west of the area will gradually shift east through the weekend while sfc ridging remains in place off the east coast.
After looking over the models, CIPS analogs, and SPC discussions think that organized convection will form somewhere around the Twin Cities around midday and then move east southeast along the surface warm front which should be from about MSP to OSH during the afternoon. Strong winds seem to be the biggest threat, with some possibility of tornadoes in the low level shear near the warm front. Convection is also likely further north ahead of the surface cold front, though severe potential is more limited. The showers and thunderstorms will end overnight as the cold front moves off to the east, though cooler and drier air will be a bit slow to arrive.
A weak mid-level inverted trough is currently approaching the local waters and is expected to move westward across the CWA today. As the upper level ridge located across the Great Plains expands southward Sunday, drier and more stable conditions are expected across South Texas. High temperatures today are expected to range between the lower 90s near the coast to near 105 degrees across the Brush Country. As the upper level ridge expands southward tomorrow, temperatures are expected to increase a touch ranging from the mid 90s near the coast to near 107 degrees across the Brush Country.
As for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, the main trigger will be the cold front passage moving into a favorable environment. For Sunday, temperatures will be cooler as the cold front passage brings down some slightly cooler temperatures, highs will only be in the 80s. The upper level ridge will strengthen across southwest CONUS with a more zonal/westerly flow across the Central Plains trough mid-week.
/issued 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to translate eastward throughout the day today, resulting in a net increase in subsidence (which is already evident on water vapor imagery this morning) across the region. The forecast therefore remains dry with temperatures peaking in the middle 90s across the Caprock while breaching 100 degrees in the low Rolling Plains.
621 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Today through Sunday) High pressure is the dominant weather feature both at the surface and aloft.
A Cu field has begun to develop across our far southern counties and across the higher terrain of north GA, so will need to watch these areas over the next couple hours for convective initiation.
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Today through Sunday) The upper level ridge centered across the Southwest U. Beneath the ridge, a weak inverted 500mb trough is moving into South Texas and a pool of 1.
Otherwise, the rest of today should showcase developing/strengthening northerly winds advecting cooler/drier air into the region. High pressure then drops in from the north, and will be the dominant feature over the area this afternoon through the day Sunday.
Monsoonal moisture will be on the increase Sunday, leading to a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over the highest elevations.
An area of low pressure centered to our north is passing through the region early this morning. This has lead to somewhat cooler temperatures with slightly higher humidity values in the Sacramento Valley with less noticeable changes brought to about Sacramento southwards. As this trough shifts to our east we will begin to see a slight increase in temperatures with widespread highs in the Valley in the triple digits. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement high pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern over the region with troughing off the coast leading to general onshore flow over the region.
A cooler airmass has moved into the region favoring more seasonal temperatures and an increase in Relative Humidity (RH) values. Tomorrow, an upper level trof enters The Treasure State from the west, favoring afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers across much of central Montana, and parts of the southwest.
Strong high pressure continues to remain over the region but it is shifting east towards the Four Corners, where it will help to usher in monsoon moisture.
The upper level ridge will start to spread eastward across the southern Plains by late this afternoon. A weakness is expected to form in the ridge on its northwest side. Highs on Sunday are expected to be a shade cooler.
710 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Stalled frontal zone is near the I-94 corridor with the main cold front starting to move into the Devils Lake Basin. Daytime highs will be very mild with highs ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s (for reference average highs are in the lower to middle 80s for this part of July).
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot and try conditions are expected again today as high pressure aloft remains steadfast over the area and holds back any real chances of precipitation or thunderstorm development.
This allows for upper ridging which otherwise extends across the southeastern states to strengthen somewhat, although is limited by an upper trof/upper low which meanwhile drifts from the far western Atlantic towards the coast of the Carolinas to Florida. Expect a typical diurnal convective cycle for Sunday as while the MCV will have departed and upper ridging built somewhat over the area, daytime heating and the sea breeze (and possibly some boundaries left over from the previous day) will lead to scattered convective development. Highs today will be around 90 into the lower 90s. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
Most of the Pacific moisture being advected northward by the southern Plains high pressure will be in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
A cooler airmass has moved into the region favoring more seasonal temperature and an increase in Relative Humidity (RH) values. Tomorrow, an upper level trof enters The Treasure State from the west, favoring afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers across much of central Montana, and parts of the southwest.
528 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Current surface map places weak low across northwest South Dakota with cold front extending back into northern Wyoming. Cold front slides through western South Dakota this morning. High pressure pushes into the Dakotas tonight. Broad upper trof settles in across the Northern Plains this week, shunting the heat south and west of the area.
Daytime highs will be very mild with highs ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s (for reference average highs are in the lower to middle 80s for this part of July).
Upper level troughing will prevail from NorCal into the Pacific Northwest as expansive mid-level ridging encompasses much of the southern CONUS. KSFO Bridge Approach.
A cold front will swing through this evening into tonight bringing possible severe thunderstorms.
618 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (Saturday through Sunday) Large scale upper-ridge extending from the desert southwest to the southern Appalachians to maintain hot and dry conditions across the region today into Sunday. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge to allow for high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s today. However, due to increased instability and mixing associated with a weakness in the upper ridge, afternoon high temperatures will average in the mid 90s, keeping heat index values at or below 105 degrees. Otherwise, the upper-ridge will strengthen across the ArkLaTex on Sunday allowing for continued hot and dry conditions with afternoon temperatures near 100 degrees.
There is also a low pressure circulation moving out of western British Columbia and into northwestern Washington. Cloud cover will begin to increase in northwest Montana around mid-morning as the low approaches, and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the northwest Montana forecast for this afternoon. The low is expected to move through north-central Idaho and west-central Montana overnight, shifting the shower chances mainly into west-central Montana tonight through Sunday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible near the Divide on Sunday afternoon as the low exits to the east. Model clusters maintain agreement for a ridge of high pressure to build into the Pacific Northwest early this week, putting the Northern Rockies under a northwesterly flow pattern.
/issued 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A weak broad mid-upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico to combine with some limited moisture may spark an isolated shower or a thunderstorm later today especially along the sea breeze. Rain chances for Sunday drop back to 10 percent or less as the mid-upper trough drifts southwest over Mexico on the southern periphery of the dominate 500mb ridge.