Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The best shear zone was closer to the trough just north of our area, and Pinal county saw quite a storm as a result.
/issued 349 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level low/trough across the Pacific Northwest will dive south and east toward the Great Basin region, through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows are forecast to be above seasonal normals, in the low 70s. The general solution hasn't changed much among models - an upper trough develops then persists, west of the Rockies, through the end of this week.
/issued 306 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016/ A broad mid-level ridge exists over the southeast CONUS this afternoon, with a quasi-stationary upper-level cyclone trapped in the weak flow aloft, spinning near New Orleans. Dewpoints have crashed into the lower 50s across the northern portion of the forecast area, resulting in little/no diurnal Cu. Otherwise, expect dry weather overnight with temperatures likely several degrees warmer than the cool readings observed this morning. We also expect temperatures to be slightly warmer, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A fast moving northern stream wave will translate across the Great Lakes late tomorrow, pushing a weak cold front south into the region.
Any steam fog which develops along area rivers should be much more localized tonight compared to the last few nights due to slightly warmer air temperatures and slightly stronger winds. Winds will remain southeasterly to southerly around the back side of a departing high pressure center.
Currently watching a cold front meander southeast across the region this evening. Water vapor satellite this afternoon showed a short wave trough over eastern Colorado that was moving to the northeast. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Minnesota into western Kansas. The short wave trough will continue to move northeast and is expected to pass over the area late tonight through Tuesday morning. The low level moisture transport does not look all that strong and primarily through the area until late tonight when a split in this flow develops with part of the flow briefly becoming focused on the southern sections of the forecast area.
An upper low shows up well over southern Louisiana and is providing support for a southerly flow aloft. Temperatures will be impacted by the clouds and higher precipitation chances with highs in the lower 90's with lows remaining around 70.
915 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will build south of the area through Tuesday.
Still, will expect the typically colder sites in the southwest to eventually see some cooler readings. Temperatures across our area are running in the low to mid 80s, with dew points actually drier in some places compared to yesterday, with some upper 40 degree readings currently being reported. This will set the stage for another cool night, with some of the deeper valleys likely seeing lower to mid 50s, while ridges are in the low 60s. Some higher based cumulus or altocumulus may move in towards dawn, which should keep lows several degrees warmer compared to tonight.
Morning lows, however, will be cold with the potential for freezing temperatures tonight and again Tuesday night. This will make it difficult for freezing temperatures at Sandpoint to be reached and possibly Deer Park. Many of the same areas will once again cool close to or reach the freezing mark as tonight. The Central Panhandle Mtns will also see less wind and will see a better chance for freezing temperatures as well.
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through midweek as a the stalled front to our south gradually dissipates.
A weak warm front continues to move north through the forecast area tonight, with slowly increasing dewpoints expected along and south of the boundary.
Much cooler and cloudier tomorrow. mainly over the higher terrain. It will likely be 15-20F cooler tomorrow afternoon as compared to this afternoon. Expect highs to only reach into 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations.
Cold front has now cleared the entire CWA, with breezy northerly winds across the entire area.
651 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front currently extends from southeast Nebraska to near Dodge City and into the OK panhandle. Mid level temps will be much cooler than today which should allow some development along the front Tue afternoon/evening, with areas along and southeast of the Turnpike being the most impacted. Last but not least, the actually mid/upper trough will swing through Thu night into Fri which should finally push the better rain chances south and east by Fri evening. Surface cold front will continue to move slowly south across central and into south central Kansas tonight. CIGS will gradually lower in the wake of the front with MVFR expected along the I-70 corridor toward dawn and becoming IFR over the higher terrain at KRSL and perhaps KGBD during much of Tuesday.
A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mid week, then a stronger system will bring better chances for rain for the weekend.
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show the central and eastern parts of Wisconsin located between high pressure centered over the east coast and a cold front moving across Minnesota. The cold front will slowly move east across western WI during the evening and far northeast/central WI overnight. Temps cooling down into the low 60s north to near 70 southeast. Tuesday Night Through Monday Primary weather systems during this period will be a departing upper trough Tuesday night, and then remnants of the western states upper trough with frontal system lifting over the area late in the week and into this weekend. Trends with the departure timing of the upper trough Tuesday night continues to be slower along with the RRQ region of the upper jet passing through.
Ill defined but it looks like a small trough or circulation on RAP around 500 mbars to our south down through Alabama and Georgia. Lows tonight in the low to mid 60's. Showers expected to develop due to daytime solar insolation and weak 500 mbar trough that tries to work this way on Tuesday from Alabama and Georgia.
as high pressure builds over the northern mid Atlantic region.
553 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front has cleared the forecast area with northerly winds gradually diminishing and showers/thunderstorms exiting to the east. Temperatures on Tuesday will probably be held in check due to the clouds/showers so will continue with the cooler side of guidance. This is due to southwesterly flow into the region caused by a deep closed low over the western CONUS.
824 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will move east of the area on Tuesday.
708 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 Lingering high pressure will sustain this stretch of clear sky and light winds through the morning period. Modest increase in southwest winds in advance of a cold front on Tuesday. Cold front begins to enter from the northwest Tuesday night.
Still think the highest coverage will be along the west coast later this afternoon and into the evening hours due to the enhanced convergence with the sea breeze.
Temperatures this evening and tonight will remain pleasant, though warmer than previous nights, with lows ranging from the upper 60s across southeastern Kansas to low 60s over the eastern Ozarks.
/Issued 318 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016/ Latest surface analysis over the eastern half of the United States shows weak high pressure off the NE coast with even weaker ridging on the east side of the Appalachians and into NE GA. Low pressure off the Florida coast looks to push NE through Tuesday but most of the associated shower and storm activity will remain south of the area.
1155 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 Lingering high pressure will sustain this stretch of clear sky and light winds through the morning period. Modest increase in southwest winds in advance of a cold front on Tuesday. Cold front begins to enter from the northwest Tuesday night.
1024 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 Aviation section updated A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mid week, then a stronger system will bring better chances for rain for the weekend. Overnight lows are progged to dip into the low to mid 50s and are currently in the low 60s.
858 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 From satellite we find a trough to our east over the central Bahamas, a trough to our west over the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical wave southwest of Cuba. The Keys area is engulfed by weak high pressure between with little steering flow and light to gentle winds at the surface.
Dry weather along with a warming trend is expected late in the week as high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Cooler temperatures were felt across the region today as a direct result of the deepening marine layer and increased marine influence further inland. An approaching upper level trough dropping down from the north will swing across the region tonight maintaining, if not deepening the already deep 3000 foot marine layer. Winds are forecast to back to the south overnight as the low drops increasingly to the south.
Low pressure area over the most of the state will continue to deepen overnight into early Tuesday morning before starting to move towards to east. As the low moves east Tuesday evening the activity will end by early evening for the western slopes. Expect most valley temperatures to lower into the lower 50s by morning with a few isolated upper 40s possible.
700 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front working across the forecast area now has pushed through quicker than expected and likely pushed the stronger T-storm risk a bit further southeast into the far southeast part of the forecast area. Solidly cooler air behind the front with temperatures in the 60s and scattered showers and isolated storms.
Four State Region remains under the influence of upper level ridge. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s. Rain chances to increase over the next several days as upper-level ridge begins do break down and flow becomes more zonal. Across Gulf of Mexico, a weak trough axis migrating west will also produce sufficient instability to support scattered afternoon convection south of Interstate 20 through late in the work week. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s through much of the work week with low temperatures in the lower 70s.
In response, the low and mid levels will saturate, promoting areas of fog and especially drizzle over and near the southern Laramie Range.
There could be some temperatures dropping to or slightly below freezing in portions of central oregon so a freeze warning is in effect for overnight.
However current temperatures are already in the lower/mid 40s across southern Saskatchewan so not too much of a stretch to get 10 degree diurnal fall by morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 91 69 91 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 63 88 / 0 10 0 10.
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will pass offshore tonight into Tuesday night.
933 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure over eastern NY State will move off the New England Coast tonight.
Temperatures across our area are running in the low to mid 80s, with dew points actually drier in some places compared to yesterday, with some upper 40 degree readings currently being reported. This will set the stage for another cool night, with some of the deeper valleys likely seeing lower to mid 50s, while ridges are in the low 60s. Some higher based cumulus or altocumulus may move in towards dawn, which should keep lows several degrees warmer compared to tonight.
/Tonight/ Cold front just pushing into far northwest Iowa to continue to move slowly across the state tonight bisecting the state in half by 12Z Tuesday.
A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mid week, then a stronger system will bring better chances for rain for the weekend. Overnight lows are progged to dip into the low to mid 50s and are currently in the low 60s.
Upper level trough extended from northern MAN to northern CA. Upper level trough over Canada expected to shear off to the east and begin a split flow pattern over North America tonight and Tue. Canadian upper trough will move across the area Tue. Another upper level trough was over the southern MAN/SASK border. Will continue to keep lows mainly in the low to mid 40s although the usual cool spots of the far northwest near Langdon and near Fosston could see lows dipping into the upper 30s. Skies will quickly clear from west to east allowing temperatures to drop to the lowest readings thus far this season. The latest model runs are in very good agreement with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the lower single digits.
Mostly clear and dry conditions continue with high pressure near the PA/NY border ridging west into the Ohio Valley.
Rain chances will be slightly lower over the next few days as the old front loses all of its identity, high pressure at the sfc takes over, and weak ridging aloft dominates.
1132 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front working across the forecast area now has pushed through quicker than expected and likely pushed the stronger T-storm risk a bit further southeast into the far southeast part of the forecast area. Solidly cooler air behind the front with temperatures in the 60s and scattered showers and isolated storms.
100 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will build south of the area through Tuesday.
703 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure continues to dominate at all terminals.
An upper low over northern California will settle into Nevada tonight through Tuesday.
High pressure remains entrenched across the area this afternoon as deep diurnal mixing lead to highs in the low to mid 80s and winds gusting to around 25 knots in some places. This will continue for the next couple of hours before the flow turns southwest and additional moisture pools into the area ahead of a cold front that will serve as the main weather producer in the short term. Main forecast concern are the chances for showers and thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage tomorrow across the area.
1119 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front working across the forecast area now has pushed through quicker than expected and likely pushed the stronger T-storm risk a bit further southeast into the far southeast part of the forecast area. Solidly cooler air behind the front with temperatures in the 60s and scattered showers and isolated storms.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will produce sunny and dry weather this week. Daytime temperatures will be a little warmer than normal for mid September. The ridge will weaken enough late this week to allow a weak weather system to reach the area sometime this weekend. The large high amplitude upper level ridge offshore along roughly 135W will tilt eastward over B. At 8 PM temperatures were running 2 to 6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with dew points mainly in the lower to mid 40s, which is 2 to 10 degrees drier. With another day of offshore flow highs Tuesday should be a little warmer with readings in the 70s to lower 80s.
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front currently extends from southeast Nebraska to near Dodge City and into the OK panhandle. Mid level temps will be much cooler than today which should allow some development along the front Tue afternoon/evening, with areas along and southeast of the Turnpike being the most impacted. Last but not least, the actually mid/upper trough will swing through Thu night into Fri which should finally push the better rain chances south and east by Fri evening. Surface cold front will continue to move slowly south across central and into south central Kansas overnight. CIGS will gradually lower in the wake of the front with MVFR expected along the I-70 corridor toward dawn with perhaps a period of IFR over the higher terrain at KRSL and KGBD on Tuesday.
The cold front now moving though the area will be the initial catalyst for sb storm development, most likely between 23 and 02 UTC.
With the low pressure trof exiting the area and pressure aloft building again, most precipitation has also moved out of the area. A low pressure trof is moving east of Central and Southwest Montana.
711 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2016 A cold front across the area will dissipate on Tuesday.
529 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 20z surface analysis had 1030mb high over southern AB which has pushed cold front will into the southern Plains. Water vapour had positively tilted trough from central Canada into the northern Rockies. Temperatures will be cold enough for some flakes of snow over northeast WY and perhaps a light coating over the highest elevations of the Black Hills. Warm ground temperatures and ground cover should preclude frost with lows staying above freezing on the Plains given expected dew points.
Overview: High pressure centered over the NY/PA area encompasses much of the eastern third of the CONUS and stretches back through the western Great Lakes. Stout SW flow now well developed across the western Great Lakes and has pulled noticeably warmer air into northern Michigan, with temps ranging from the middle 70s to near 80. Upstream, upper level trough axis stretches from south-central Canada into the PAC NW with broad SW flow from the western CONUS into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 70's in the far eastern counties of northern WI, to the low to mid 60's behind the front. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday, with considerable cloud cover and some rain showers generated by cold air aloft and daytime heating. Gusty northwest winds will also make it feel cooler on Tuesday. The long wave trough over the western United States will be our main focus for the next seven days. By Tuesday night the northern stream of the trough will take over and give the Northland a few days of dry weather, as heights rise due to the trough digging into New England. The upper ridging will be short-lived, however as the western trough moves east over the Rockies. The cold front will be well out of the area with high pressure building in.
Patchy fog is likely again tonight, spreading farther south and west and forecast mainly along the Highway 77 corridor.
1106 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will move east of the area on Tuesday.
Dry weather along with a warming trend is expected late in the week as high pressure builds in over the eastern Pacific. An approaching mid/upper level trough to our north has resulted in a deepening marine layer and temperatures below seasonal averages. As the core of the mid/upper level low drops across the region tomorrow, low clouds will likely mix out as the cooler/drier air mass mixes down into the boundary layer.
Strong upper level low over CA/OR area will swing east the next two days.
926 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will move east of the area on Tuesday.
The upper level pattern is slowly transitioning from quasi- zonal to a more direct SW as a mid-level trough of low pressure closes off over the Great Basin.
/ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016/ High pressure aloft and the return of low level moisture has resulted in a hot and somewhat humid day across North and Central Texas with 3 PM temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The warm and humid conditions will continue overnight as low level moisture increases in response to a deep trough of low pressure and cold front currently extending from the Northern Plains to the Central High Plains. The cold front will move into the Central Plains tonight but will stall well north of the Red River. The weather pattern will become more active the remainder of the week as an upper level trough deepens across the western U. However, storms may approach the Red River Tuesday night as the cold front moves into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Latest meso-analysis indicates frontogenesis is gradually slipping south and drier air is trying to punch into the low levels from the north. Northern stream of trough shears off to the east late tonight while southern stream/upper low drops into the Great Basin. This will result in some 500 MB ridging over our region Tuesday bringing the precipitation to an end by midday.
Moisture will be directed into the area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the Florida area through much of the week.
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.
406 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
347 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
330 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. INCREASING S/SW LLJ AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED LOW SUPPORTING A HEALTHY SWATH OF 295-300K SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FINALLY BE OPENING UP AND EXITING THE AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. PRETTY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER TOP FRIDAY MORNING HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE EAST TO HIGH CHANCE.
An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest with a cold front that is pushing through the area providing an increase in lift needed for thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures are expected to be cooler today behind the front with highs mostly in the 70s across the Permian Basin. The upper trough will move eastward on Friday with upper ridging building over the area. An upper low south of California will beginning impacting the weather across West Texas on Friday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across the higher terrain and Rio Grande Valley on Friday due to an increase in moisture from this upper low.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO AR. AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH. WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
213 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT PASSES TO OUR WEST WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT IN WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OPENS INTO A WAVE AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. A DRY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT THAT MUCH COOLER SO TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.