Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN THE TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SWINGING ITS WAY OVER CENTRAL NM/CO AND WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGHER SIDE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BEHIND THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THINGS TO REMAIN QUIET INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ALDRICH A MERGER OF TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A COMPLEX METAMORPHIC EVENT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS RATHER BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN WY/ERN CO/WRN NEB REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PAC NW. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW UPPER LOW IS PUSHING THROUGH SCNTRL MT. UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE MT/WY BY EARLY TUESDAY MRNG. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD TO NEAR THE SERN MT/SWRN ND STATE LINE. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL RESIDE FROM NERN WY INTO NWRN SD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY KEEPING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OF THE WEEK DRY AND WARM. AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER WEATHER-WISE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THEN SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHEARING APART AND WEAKENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TODAY ACROSS OK/AR/MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
554 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE MONDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
AS MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE ENCOMPASSES SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED NOT TO RISE INTO THE 60S EVEN WITH UNFAVORABLE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW.
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
357 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
Strong isentropic lift and a persistent, but not overly strong, low level jet will be present on Monday, which in association with a broad trough to the west and SW flow aloft will bring increasing chances for more thunderstorms through the day on Monday.
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY DESPTIE BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOPE FURTHER TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE LOW AND A STRONGER 850MB JET.
347 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ALLOWING A PACIFIC TROUGH TO TAKE ITS PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
130 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. COMPROMISED BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS WITH WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN STALLING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY. WHICH COULD SEE THE LEAST PRECIPITATION WITH THE LIFTING OF THE WARM FRONT AND IS ALSO TO BE LEAST AFFECTED BY THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH.
340 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY AND WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WYOMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND OVER THE STATE. PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES THEREFORE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM WY/CO/SD/NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. DIGGING THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASING THE TWO TOGETHER INTO ONE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA/WYOMING BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S SOUTH TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COINCIDING WITH THE NAM'S PROJECTED CAPE. COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S WEST TO 60S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
High pressure will remain in place through the period.
a couple of strong/severe thunderstorms this early morning moved across the Low Rolling Plains and Northeast Permian Basin. Looking at sfc obs it appears that the dryline is moving east thru the Permian Basin as the upper trof moves across West Texas.
403 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES IS OPENING UP AND WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTENING AND SUPPRESS SOUTH.
THE HIGH OF 88 IN HUNTSVILLE APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS BRINGING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CORRESPONDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A WARMER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY SMALLER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGHER/LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE WITHIN A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LEAVE DRY WEATHER FOR THE BRO CWFA TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN B.
333 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016 THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON STATE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW SHOULD BE LESS AND WITH A BIT FASTER STORM MOTIONS NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST TOMORROW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER) A DECENT BET FOR TOMORROW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
418 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016 THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST U. TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
For today, the base of an upper trough will rotate across western Kansas with an associated mid level cold pool around -18 to -20C. The rain chances continue mainly north of Dodge City into the early evening as the upper trough passes through. Highs today, with partly cloudy skies, will be in the upper 70s west and north of Dodge City, to the low 80s in parts of south central sections. Tonight as high pressure builds into the area expect clearing skies with light north to northwest winds and lows from 48 to 52 degrees.
246 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THAT WILL BE CHANGING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WITH ROBUST SHORT DRIVING THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN NE TX JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO SPILL OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. MODELS ALSO DEPICT THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
A STNRY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. A NNW-SSE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN MANITOBA TO WI TO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS WHILE A LARGE UPR LVL LOW ROTATES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN CHANGE ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COMMENCE TDA AS DEEP RIDGING THAT HAD ALLOWING THE DEEP LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACRS THE AREA STARTING LATER THIS MRNG. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SRN MN.
307 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 Thunderstorms continue across the area this morning as energy continues to rotate out of the Rockies upper trof into the Central Plains. Upper trof sweeps eastward through the evening and decreases storm chances west to east.
643 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY.
652 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO BUILD AND MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A VERY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS UNDER THE HIGH WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. BUT A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN OVER THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SEPARATES DRY AND COOL AIR WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NW FROM WARMER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE SE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE EASTERLY WIND HAS COME BACK TO THE AREA. A 500MB RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MAINLY BY JUST FLATTENING OUT. THIS IS AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
449 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY.
402 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE MONDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES KICKING EAST OF TEXAS CARVE OUT A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TONIGHT. THEN A DEGREE OR FEW WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A H5 TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO GA. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.
A VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY BE SWINGING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF I-70 IS PUSHED EAST OF OUR CWA.
326 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN WY/CO WITH A WING OF PV- ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEB. QUITE OVER OUR LOCAL AREA RIGHT NOW UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME CONVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT AS THAT CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE ANY WHERE FROM 1/10 INCH TO LOCALLY 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL. TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
Rinse and repeat for Saturday as we remain under a broad upper trof, and the air mass remains juicy. Given the low convective temps in this air mass, expect max temps to run near or just below climo, but with limited cooling at night.
123 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will bring very warm conditions for inland areas today.
Deep layer high pressure remains in place over the Gulf Coast region, with no discernible upper level forcing present around our area.
Upper ridge axis moves across the area Sun night. Another upper level trough was located over ALTA. Trough will move across the area Fri night and Sat morning. Next upper trough was off the southern AK coast. Trough will move into SASK by 12z Mon. Upper level jet will rotate around the south periphery of the SASK trough. Stronger low level jet will occur Sun night with approaching trough.
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in moisture for the weekend. Upper level ridge off the southeast coast with southwest flow aloft across our area. As an upper level trough digs into the MS River Valley could see weak short wave cross the Upstate this afternoon.
Typical summertime conditions will continue over the next several days with clouds and cooler temperatures near the coast with warmer weather inland. A cooling trend is slated to begin during the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the west coast. Forecast wise, minor cooling can be expected over the next several days as a longwave trof approaches the west coast.
The temperature forecast uses a four-way blend of guidance plus bias correction for highs in the lower 80s today with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
Upper level trough axis extended from WI to KS and was producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Today: Upper level trough and pocket of cooler air aloft will slide into the cwa. Pops will be kept at 30-40 percent, with the higher pops in the north and east where the better forcing will exist. Tonight: Slow moving upper level trough will still be over the area but with the loss of heating any showers or storms will gradually diminish. Lows should be in the lower to mid 60s.
A weaker ridge will also allow the east coast sea breeze to push further inland. we anticipate a better chance of showers and storms though still mainly in the low end chance range. Upper-level ridge axis remains over forecast area.
Upper pattern showing a northwest flow over the area that will become zonal Saturday as an upper low drops into western Canada.
133 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist through the weekend. Slightly lowered the highs for the day and hourly temperature trend and increased cloud cover a bit in the grids. High temperatures will again the mid 90s inland, with around 90 to the lower 90s coast.
/issued 959 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ Deep-layered high pressure is anchored off the Atlantic coast of Florida this morning. The light flow and humid surface airmass over the region are contributing factors to the high heat index values.
While there isn't a more synoptic boundary to focus on, feel storms should develop over the high Plains Sat afternoon and try and work east into the evening hours. Upper ridging will start to build east into the southern Plains Sun into the start of the work week. Moist/unstable low-level upslope flow and northwesterly flow aloft may generate a few storm clusters over the high plains late this afternoon/evening.
The central Gulf coast remains on the western side of a deep layer ridge from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf. temps will remain hot with highs in the low to mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s inland to around 80s along the coast.
654 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move off the coast tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. A weak s/wv trof alf from SE QB will cross the region this eve. Aft slightly abv avg low temps, Sat should be pleasant, drier, and a little cooler across the all of the region as Can sfc hi pres ridges toward the region, with near normal hi temps.
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure builds across the area tonight through Saturday.
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 An area of low pressure will pull away from the coast this afternoon and evening.
Expecting mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms south of the boundary where less instability is seen on mesoanalysis with warmer mid level temperatures. Increasing cloud cover and minimal shower chances should continue overnight as low pressure approaches.
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. A broad mid/upper level trough axis into the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes will work slowly east into the Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley today into Saturday. while in the low levels a diffuse frontal boundary remains draped over the region. Trough axis then lingers overhead into tonight and Saturday resulting in additional rain/thunder chances.
/ISSUED 1054 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ Low clouds continue to slowly clear and vertically lift this morning which is allowing temperatures to increase into the low to mid 80s near the 11am hour. Subsidence aloft should take over the remaining areas as a mid level ridge axis to the NW expands east into North Central TX.
Main highlight will be the low-end rain chances today (20-30%) that will drop further over the weekend while temperatures and heat indices rise. Clouds will return overnight with lows falling into the low to mid 70s.
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure covered the forecast area at 19Z with a northeast wind near Lake Superior. The high pressure will cover the region tonight. Models are trying to bring an upper level short wave trof to the Red River Valley of the North by 09Z/4am. Meanwhile, the models try to push the short wave trof a bit farther eastward. There are differences in location of the trof and associated areas of vorticity drifting over the forecast area.
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move off the coast tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. A weak s/wv trof alf from SE QB will cross the region this eve. Aft slightly abv avg low temps, Sat should be pleasant, drier, and a little cooler across the all of the region as Can sfc hi pres ridges toward the region, with near normal hi temps.
Still, airmass is cooler today, which will reduce CAPE values. Warmer, but still several degrees below normal for late July.
Dry conditions have prevailed this morning over CWA, but still expected isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon in humid airmass with moist dewpoints in the lower 70s (upper 60s nw of IL river). A 578 dm 500 mb low near the IA/WI border will track east across northern IL this afternoon with a short wave trof moving into central IL by late afternoon. The combination of nearby boundary and approaching short wave trof should help to support development of isolated convection this afternoon through sunset. By around midnight the trough axis should be near the IN/IL boundary with thunderstorms diminishing from west to east behind the trough axis.
332 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Broad high pressure will continue to stretch across the desert southwest to the southeast states.
348 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level trough over the western Great Lakes will guide the forecast through most of the weekend. This feature lies in between the dominate ridge over the southwestern US and upper low over Quebec. Relatively weak flow in the vicinity of the trough will result in slow forward propagation the next couple days. As for the rest of today and into the overnight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up within the band of high theta e air across the southern half of the lower peninsula. The upper level trough will track eastward across the area on Saturday.
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Overall pattern remains the same with ridging in the west and troughing in the east.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s for all locations. Upper closed low over western Canada will continue to deepen into the Pacific northwest tonight sharpening the ridge ahead of it and allowing the ridge to the south to build back into the northern plains. As the ridge builds temperatures aloft will warm. Southerly flow and cloud cover will keep the lows in the mid to upper 60s.
A dry cold front passes Saturday, creating breezy conditions and an increased risk for spreading grass fires.
Have been a bit more aggressive with temps based on what occurred yesterday staying toward the warmer end of the guidance envelope.
540 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in moisture for the weekend. Upper level trough stretching through the OH and MS valley region will slowly shift eastward through the weekend providing a better chance for storms than in recent days. Lee side troughing will continue while a frontal boundary remains across the Mid-Atlantic states, well north of the forecast area.
Even so, those near normal max temps will feel a little warmer. The resident long wave trough providing the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the week will gradually move out of the region allowing for a brief period of upper level ridging and more limited possibilities of a cooling shower or thunderstorm.
240 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A cooling trend will begin tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure that has been dominating our weather pattern weakens.