Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Have likely or better precipitation chances for the mountains, with chance to likely type pops for the lower elevations. This will limit precipitation potential for the lower elevations, though isolated to scattered showers will move through the area producing some light precipitation. With the jet to the south of the area temperatures will be cooler today despite the down slope winds. Trof axis shifts into the area for Tuesday with instability showers possible over the western half of the forecast area.
The upper level ridge over Texas will gradually shift eastward over the next few days, and be centered over the forecast area on Monday, then over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The upper level ridge will keep mid levels dry to prevent any significant shower activity for the next few days.
The main synoptic scale warm front has shifted to our north early this morning and will continue to push away from our area today as strong low pressure tracks northeast out of Kansas into the upper Great Lakes by later today. Warmer air mass starts to get shoved southward on Tuesday as a cold front moves toward the Ohio Valley. Evening model suite generally as this across southern Missouri and into southern Illinois between I-64 and the Ohio River by evening, with a surge back northward as a wave of low pressure rides northeast along the front.
but CWA will have overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to the low 50s. combined with Td's in mid 20s to mid 30s will give the CWA low RH readings in the low to mid teens. The stronger gradient coming with the front/trough passage will put the entire CWA under critical Fire Wx conditions. A potent upper low will push across the Canadian Plains Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure situated off the Southern California coast. A cold front will push across the CWA overnight with winds shifting to the north northwest.
Meanwhile a broad mid-upr high/ridge extends across NRN Mexico and Texas. Expect one more day of potentially record setting highs across the region, although believe the combination of a cirrus deck across the region and modest lowering of H5 heights will lead to slightly cooler highs than what we saw yesterday. A s/wv in the jet flow will help push a cold front into the region early Tuesday morning finally providing cooler conditions.
246 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A few showers are possible again today with the highest chances occuring this afternoon and especially in New York State. Very warm and dry weather is expected on Tuesday before the pattern becomes cooler and more active into the latter half of the week with additional chances for rain. A boundary laying across our area now will lift northeast late today as a warm front.
639 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Dry high pressure will dominate the region for most of the week with temperatures well above normal. Moisture and rain chances will return by the end of the work week as a cold front crosses the region from the west. Dry and cooler weather will likely set up across the area over the weekend. At 200 AM Monday: An upper ridge will progress across the Gulf States and Appalachians today and tonight, while troughs cross the Bahamas and Upper Midwest. As of 200 AM EDT Monday: Broad upper level ridging will extend from the lower MS River Valley to the Carolinas on Tuesday.
Weak passing fronts will prolong showery weather today through Tuesday morning before high pressure moves over the west coast by mid-week. By mid-week high pressure will shift over the west coast and bring dry weather to northern California. For the remainder of the week, and upper level ridge will build across the west coast, and winds will gradually weaken and turn to the north.
Today Through Tuesday Aside from some persistent stratus over the higher terrain of southwestern Arkansas. mostly sunny skies were found across the state with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. A large upper trough was observed just off the Pacific coast of Washington. The upper level low pressure system over the northwest CONUS is expected to slowly move southeast towards Arkansas early this week. however Monday and Tuesday will continue to be dominated by upper level ridging until the upper trough gets closer to the state. With upper level ridging in place. As the upper level trough approaches.
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will shift southward Monday and remain to our south through midweek.
224 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will keep the unseasonably warm weather through midweek. A frontal system brings unsettled and, eventually, cooler weather, late in the week. High pressure then takes over providing a dry and warm afternoon. Therefore, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows. With high pressure remaining anchored off the east coast, the southwest flow of unseasonably warm air will continue to dominate this period. A large upper level short wave trough approaching midweek will drive a cold front toward the area Tuesday night.
356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows deep upper low circulation near the Pacific Northwest with models initializing very strong jet stream moving well inland. The Northern Plains will initially be under the influence of upper level cyclonic flow, between upper level low over eastern Canada and a strengthening ridge over western CONUS.
430 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 With high pressure over the southeastern states. A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and then stall across the region.
634 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 With high pressure over the southeastern states. A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and then stall across the region.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the strong ridge of the past several days is beginning to get nudged eastward as the deep trough over the PacNW begins to pivot this direction. However, we've yet to see much effect as most areas are still running several degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago.
353 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure was over the Northland early this morning. This high will move east today and a trough will move into the region and act on a baroclinic zone to produce a strong area of FGEN. A warm front will extend from low pressure in the Central Plains northeast into southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.
445 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016 A weak backdoor cold front is still progged to move across the FA later this afternoon. As the high moves off to the east and pressures fall out west, an increasingly SE low-level flow will help to draw moisture in from the Gulf starting Weds night. A deepening upper trof appears to close off a low near the Four Corners on Sun. Not completely shutting the door on the idea of a "proper" cold front with this system at this point. but having to temper enthusiasm for one is getting tiresome given we are already past our average calendar day for our first cold front (Sept 15).
244 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016 08z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into western NE and cold front into ID. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of cold front over far southern reaches of SD and back into northeast WY where cooler air never really shows up. Moisture slowly increases with cooler boundary layer air pushing into northeast WY. Wednesday, upper trough over the northwest US deepens with southwest flow aloft.
319 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Warm and dry conditions are expected across the Panhandles today as high temperature increase into the lower 90s area wide. On Wednesday, an upper level trough is anticipated to lift northeastward out of the Colorado Rockies. The ridge of high pressure which has brought pleasant weather to the Panhandles for the past few days will weakened slightly to allow trailing vort lobes behind the trough to move across the northwestern zones.
121 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Upper ridge over the area will produce unseasonably warm wx for the region most of the week.
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Southwest flow aloft will prevail today around a ridge over Texas and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. The moisture being advected into the area is at the upper levels of the atmosphere and the lower levels will remain dry. Expected warm temperatures again today, but a couple degrees cooler because of the increased cloud cover. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain tonight with the best chance being south.
322 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Cold front will continue to push through Southeast Michigan early this morning. Upper low centered over northeast Manitoba will lift into St James Bay today, while another upper low drops through the Pacific Northwest. Sunshine, dry air and little change in 925-850mb temps behind the weak front will yield max temps only slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Model forecast soundings are showing a strong cap in place as good theta-e advection works in with the weak warm front.
An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will gradually shift south the next couple of days.
248 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days, with dry conditions, and above normal temperatures for late September. A weak cold front is actually expected to drop across the area this afternoon, but lack of moisture or forcing should preclude any shower activity, or even much in the way of cloud cover.
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue.
522 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions. Model exhibit for the weekend is of amplified flow with development of a Mississippi Valley Ridge and East Coast trough, resulting in northwest flow over the Upper Ohio Region. That scenario would maintain generally dry weather and trend temperature back toward the averages depending on position of the ridge.
Upper high at 594 dm centered near Childress this morning will migrate to northern Oklahoma by this evening. High clouds will filter in from the west through this evening, and south winds of 15-30 mph will be common as lee trough intensifies in eastern Colorado. Until then, the southwest Kansas region will remain in a warm and windy pattern, as a leeside trough continues to prevail with fairly high southwest flow mid tropospheric heights across the Western Plains.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered over Texas will remain nearly in place through the forecast period. Will continue to lean towards persistence and the warmer ECMWF MOS numbers for high temperatures through the period.
A dry and stable environment then left in it's wake, as extensive high pressure takes control. * None Cold front will continue to push through Southeast Michigan early this morning. Upper low centered over northeast Manitoba will lift into St James Bay today, while another upper low drops through the Pacific Northwest. Sunshine, dry air and little change in 925-850mb temps behind the weak front will yield max temps only slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Model forecast soundings are showing a strong cap in place as good theta-e advection works in with the weak warm front.
High pressure and dry air aloft will maintain VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Current thinking is that the strong ridge of high pressure aloft will remain stagnant over the region and temperatures will remain elevated. High pressure aloft will keep hot and dry weather in place. /issued 249 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered over the Texas Big Bend and extending overhead will remain nearly in place through the forecast period.
Overnight low temperatures were adjusted slightly as dewpoints should remain in the low 70s across much of the western half of the CWA, but light northeast winds will bring some dry air advection into Southern Arkansas and North Central Louisiana.
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Short term largely influenced by low pressure over the Carolinas. Flow around the low has resulted in NE winds across the area this morning, feeding Atlantic moisture back into the area. Models keep the low nearly stagnant over the Carolinas and removed from the zonal flow over the northern U.
108 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
442 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016 08z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into western NE and cold front into ID. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of cold front over far southern reaches of SD and back into northeast WY where cooler air never really shows up. Moisture slowly increases with cooler boundary layer air pushing into northeast WY. Wednesday, upper trough over the northwest US deepens with southwest flow aloft.
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure over the area will weaken some late tonight to allow a weak cold front to move southeast across the region early Tuesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the work week. The band of convection with the cold front is dissipating as expected over southern lake michigan. The weakening cold front will cross the local area tomorrow. After that high pressure will dominate through the end of the period.
A large low pressure system will move across the region through the end of the week.
Upper level trough extends from ern NC southwest to the wrn FL panhandle. Weak cool front presently over south central GA will gradually move southward today while and mid and upper level low across ern SC will drift southward. Lift associated with PVA around the upper level low and sufficient moisture will continue to trigger mainly scattered showers and storms. A few strong storms will be possible given SBCAPE values around 2500-3000 J/kg and some dry air wrapping around the back side of the upper level low. Mid and upper level trough will shift a bit eastward but anticipate spokes of vorticity to rotate around the trough axis. Highs will nudge a bit lower given cooler thicknesses.
1152 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Broad upper-level ridging will give way to very quiet weather during the next several days.
An upper level low pressure system is sitting over western Canada which will slowly sink southward over the next couple of days.
This high will strengthen as it departs to the E tonight. Lee cyclogenesis will begin tomorrow over WY with a warm front forming to the E across SD/MN. The EC 250 mb RH has a good handle on the high clouds entering AZ. Aloft: Tuesday night into Wed the UT/CO trof will eject ENE across the Cntrl Plains as heights cont to fall along the W coast and an upr low forms. A Wrn USA trof/Ern ridge will develop with svrl days of SW to even S flow here. Now instead of the low ejecting into the Nrn Plains. WPC shyed away from the more progressive solutions which is understandable given the potential degree of amplification and blocking. Temps will turn cooler for sure once the front goes thru.
/issued 902 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016/ High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will hold control of the weather over central and southwest Florida. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through the week with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will keep a light west through northwest winds 10 knots or less.
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal for mid and late September through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. High pressure remains in control today with dry conditions and above average temperatures.
244 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A weak cold front will move southeast across the region Today.
Mid and upper level dry air continues to filter in on northerly winds now the axis of the upper trough has moved to our east.
Water vapor imagery shows upper level low dropping further SE into central South Carolina this morning and will become nearly stationary through tonight. With weak upper level ridge of high pressure continuing to dominate our forecast area, we are right back to seeing daytime high temperatures running about 7-9 degrees above normal across much of the area. An upper level ridge will build into the area from the west by midweek.
High pressure will continue to prevail at the surface and aloft over the region for the next several days resulting in a typical late summertime and early fall weather pattern. Typical late summer/early fall weather pattern continues for South High pressure will continue to prevail across the region both at the surface and aloft. A longwave trough digging into the southeast CONUS is still forecast to close off into an upper-level low as the trough absorbs the remnants of Julia.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over Texas this morning will slowly build eastward over the next 2 days, and a low pressure system over the East Coast will slowly lift northward. Through the mid and lower levels a ridge of high pressure will translate from the Plains toward the Great Lakes - keeping the ArkLaMiss beneath northeasterly flow aloft. Clear skies and deeper mixing should see temps climb into the low to mid 90s and relative humidity values drop to near 35 percent.
312 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 A very quiet period is in store, with ridging at the surface and aloft dominating our weather. With the westerlies well to our north and high geopotential heights due to the ridge, we will see above normal temperatures.
/Issued 331 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016/ The latest regional surface analysis shows low pressure continues off the Carolinas coast. RAP upper air analysis shows upper low just to the west of the surface feature but continues to sink further south and east with time. Upper low continues to shift southeast through Tue but moisture actually increases over the eastern sections of the area as circulation around both this and surface feature brings enhanced moisture back toward the local area.
113 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Aviation A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas north of I-96 tonight, and only isolated precipitation to areas along and south of I-96.
A deepening trough along the west coast will increase precipitation chances through Wednesday. The upper trough cuts off along the coast late tonight through Wednesday. For this period models are showing the focus of precipitation development near the low center in western Oregon and across s-central Idaho which is positioned under the more dynamic and moist southwest flow out ahead of the low.
129 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions will provide mainly tranquil weather through the week with above normal temperatures. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs on Tuesday will reach into the lower 80s. Weakening cold front on southern fringe of high zonal flow near the US/Canada border will sink into northwest IN/lower MI later tonight, then wash out across northern IN on Tuesday.
446 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Massive swath of dry air covering the deep South as indicated by water vapor imagery with mid and upper level ridge axis extending across this region. The real treat will come during the morning hours as low temperatures will be dipping into the 60s over the next few days, but the drier air in place coupled with ample sunshine will still allow for highs to easily climb back into the lower to mid 90s.
520 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
324 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions. Model exhibit for the weekend is of amplified flow with development of a Mississippi Valley Ridge and East Coast trough, resulting in northwest flow over the Upper Ohio Region. That scenario would maintain generally dry weather and trend temperature back toward the averages depending on position of the ridge.
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Another hot day is in store for North and Central Texas as upper level high pressure remains parked over the region.
553 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 /12Z TAFS/ Upper high pressure will settle over West Central Texas with mostly clear skies and light winds at all terminals through the next 24 hours. /issued 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will settle over the forecast area through tonight resulting in mostly clear skies and dry weather. Highs today and lows tonight will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average with afternoon highs in the mid 90s and morning lows around 70.
615 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon followed by drier and cooler air by late week. Even cooler air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn. A cold front will approach the region from the west and cross the state today. Drier and cooler this term. Another cold front is forecast to slide across the region Wed afternoon. Clearing for Wednesday night and cooler than the previous nights w/overnight lows projected to be in the mid 40s north and west w/upper 40s to around 50 central and downeast.
Today Through Wednesday 18Z subjective surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure was located from southern Illinois to the southwest over central Arkansas. This ridge of high pressure left winds light and variable across much of the state. However southwest Arkansas held onto some southeasterly flow this afternoon which likely helped keep dew points up into the lower to mid 70s. closer to the ridge of high pressure. The consensus of model guidance is that upper level ridging will build up over Arkansas and remain in place for the remainder of the work week. temperatures are expected to remain above normal with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s each day.
337 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue.
341 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Mid to high level clouds have been streaming across the area today ahead of the next low pressure system. By Wednesday, the low pressure system will dig along the west coast, and pull in an abundance of tropical moisture ahead of it.
Broad upper ridging extends across the southern half of the CONUS, promoting hot conditions from the Southern High Plains to the northern Gulf Coast. Along the eastern periphery of this upper ridge, a weak cutoff low meanders over the Carolinas and into the far western Atlantic. The upper low to our northeast will induce weak upper level north to northwest flow across the region. On Wednesday, as the upper low slips southward and nears the northern Florida peninsula, some slightly drier air may become entrained along its western flank. Temperatures will stay near to just above normal, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast.
1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Continued dry conditions through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region. Plenty of warm air advection through the night and into Tuesday will allow temperatures to remain warmer than average. Any cloud cover could potentially limit the amount of heating these locations will see and therefore lower the high temperatures. For Wednesday, the upper ridge begins to break down with a disturbance in southwest flow.