Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
-Much cooler air still looks to arrive late this week. A cold front extends from the low over South Dakota into northern Kansas and a band of light rain has been noticed on radar through central portions of the state near that boundary today. However, forecast soundings continue to show a dry air mass in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere so QPF will be light at best from any rain showers that occur in that area.
237 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure is posted up just to our northwest providing northeast flow at the surface. Then another upper level low across the northern Plains. Overall coldest spots will be the deeper valleys and the Bluegrass which will see mid to upper 30s, possibly lower in locations that are seeing lower dewpoints this afternoon, and upper 30 to lower 40s on the ridges. That said, for the lows did lean toward the tenth percentile of the NBM for lows in the valleys and bluegrass. This will lead to highs in the lower 70s for Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night the clear and calm conditions continue, but not as cold given the warmer day Wednesday. This will upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s on the ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low 50s north of Highway 84 (with this area seeing the best influx of cooler and drier air) to near 60 southwest of a Perry County to Okaloosa County line. With Ian moving off, the cool northerly flow eases and a bit warmer day is in store for the forecast area, with temperatures topping out in the 80-85 degree range.
351 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A blocking pattern has been in place for a couple days with the bulk of the upper level energy locked across northern Canada within the pseudo zonal northern stream of the jet. The ridge axis passes to the east tonight but with little flow throughout the column, there will not be much advection occuring. Highs Wednesday are expected to climb into the low-mid 70s.
High pressure over Oklahoma and Texas will persist through the Short Term period. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be slightly cooler in the upper 60s as skies are expected to be mostly clear overnight. Temperatures increase back up to near seasonal average on Wednesday with highs in the lower 90s and mostly sunny skies expected.
248 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Seasonable and dry weather sticks around through midweek before a strong cold front brings much cooler weather to the area later this week into the weekend. Temperatures as of 2 PM were sitting in the low to middle 70s. Lows tonight look to range from the low to middle 40s, though can't rule out a few upper 30s in the typical cool spots.
205 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 An upper ridge will bring more dry and warm weather to the Northern Rockies through Wednesday.
Another seasonable evening is in store with lows expected to mainly be in the low to mid 50s and the normally cooler valley locations dipping into the 40s.
No changes to the forecast as a warm/dry upper level ridge of high pressure will continue over the area. This will result in temperature basically 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the lower 90s with normals in the lower 80s.
350 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
1121 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The upper low center was located over southwest ND/northwest SD with its trough axis into northeast CO. The model consensus has the upper low and associated trough moving east-southeast across the Dakotas through tonight and toward the Midwest Wednesday. Lingering moisture and weak instability on the backside of the departing upper low will keep small chances for showers today over the far northern NE Panhandle. A upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, with north-northwest flow aloft dominating the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the low 50s and mid 40s for much of the CWA; with some areas in NW Georgia seeing some upper 30s.
241 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dictate the weather for the region through Wednesday and then move east during the evening.
25 (Today and tonight) Morning temperatures and weather about the same as yesterday as high pressure extending from the Great Lakes down into the gulf this morning as the weather along the eastern seaboard locked in about the same position with few showers extending along a developing cold front from Wisconsin down into New Mexico. The area of high pressure that has been driving the quiet weather pattern from the lakes down into the gulf will continue today with light northeast winds on tap and highs in the mid 80s.
127 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Aviation High pressure producing mostly clear skies and calm winds early this morning is resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Dry wx will continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening before the approaching cold front brings scattered showers late Wednesday night.
1124 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A trough axis is now exiting the Cowboy State. Ridging will begin to build into Wyoming today and bring a dry and seasonable day for the most part. There are no concerns for Wednesday as it looks like an almost perfect autumn day with the ridge axis over the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The slow moving upper level closed low system continues to drop south and east. For the remainder of the forecast, the region will be dominated by northwest flow aloft while a ridge builds over the western CONUS.
1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The blocking pattern over the country will continue to break down today, allowing an upper level trough currently in the northern High Plains to travel east across the north central CONUS today into Wednesday.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper level trough over Arizona will drift east to New Mexico sending periods of cirrus clouds over our area while weak surface ridging will maintain dry lower levels. Remnant moisture from former eastern Pacific Hurricane Orlene will produce some echoes on radar this afternoon into early evening, however, the lower levels are way too dry for any rain to reach the surface.
However, we will likely see another shot of drier and possibly cooler air which will keep things on the more comfortable side at least in the short term. LL temps and moisture continues to slowly moderate under a weak ridge which is mostly situated north of the region dominating the mid MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. The ridge will continue to slide east over the OH and TN Valleys but the base of it will be fairly flat leading to weak zonal flow tomorrow. High pressure will remain in control at the sfc and still generally centered to the N.
Discussion: Visible and water vapor imagery reveals a large and stationary upper low located to our northeast. This low will gradually begin transitioning to the east through the rest of the short term.
1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Now through Wednesday) Modest mid-level ridging will maintain dry and comfortable weather through much of the period. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s, except for the lower 70s near the coast.
Dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected through at least Wednesday with high pressure just to our west. A broad area of low pressure develops over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico late week, and with easterly flow, moisture may moisture push back westward for slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over northwest Arizona and southeast California, mainly this weekend. Northerly flow will continue to dominate the weather pattern as a ridge axis sits just west of the area.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level trough is centered over South Dakota and extends southwest over Arizona and New Mexico. The northward extension of the trough will begin to break away from the southern extension of the trough on Wednesday. Upper lift will increase across the area today due to the portion of the upper trough to the west. The southern portion of the upper trough moves over New Mexico on Wednesday which will allow for upper lift to continue to increase over the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slight cooler than those today. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or slightly cooler than tonight.
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over our area.
A trailing cold front was situated across central KS early this afternoon. This trough will force the H85 thermal ridge south of the area bringing more seasonable temperatures and continued dry weather conditions to the region on Wed-Thu with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Another cool night is expected tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s, although a few areas will see upper 30s. Tomorrow appears to be very similar to today but just a bit warmer with highs in the 70s to low 80s, low RH, and sunny skies - along with continued elevated fire danger.
High pressure will continue to bring quiet conditions for the next several days.
152 PM PDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will continue to maintain a quiet weather pattern with above average temperatures through the end of the week. A high pressure ridge over CA/NV will continue to block any storm systems from reaching the west coast through the remainder of this week.
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS 215 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The upper level low will continue to move through the Northern Plains thorugh the short term bringing northwest flow above the forecast area. The cold front at the surface will continue to trek eastward with precipiation moving well out of the area this afternoon. An upper level low will slide down through Canada and into the Great Lakes region by this weekend.
200 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the slow moving upper low pivoting across the forecast area with an upper ridge axis further upstream along the west coast. These showers will taper off late this afternoon and evening with the loss of daytime mixing and subsidence on the backside of the upper low. While temperature advection will largely be neutral Wednesday, ample sunshine/diabatic heating will result in temperatures 5-10F warmer than today (Tuesday).
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Weather conditions remain stagnant as ridging aloft dominates the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to a cooler night (at least slightly cooler than this morning) with lows from the mid 50s to upper 60s.
This is due to ridging in place with the ridge axis stretching from East Texas into the Midwest region.
This lends to general persistence of the local environment, as an encroaching upper ridge axis takes an increasing influence atop pervasive high pressure. The underlying climb in the upper height field affords a modest response within the low to mid level thermal profile. Mid level moisture advection working across the ridge periphery as flow backs toward the west- southwest above 700 mb may introduce some thicker high based cloud at times over central lower mi, but generally favor a high degree of insolation today given the high magnitude dry layer entrenched beneath. Upper ridge then folds eastward on Wednesday, allowing southwest flow to take an increasing hold.
1126 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
302 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure to our north will keep temperatures a bit cool through Tuesday.
1205 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure is centered over the southern Great Lakes this morning and extends across the TN/MS Valleys.
1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Tranquil conditions are expected to continue as mid to upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast TX. The highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s and in the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Lows will be a degree or two warmer on Wednesday night.
Quiet and dry weather is expected through the short term as high pressure dominates the weather over northern and central Nevada.
A gradual warming trend and dry conditions are expected through the week as high pressure builds over the region. Running about 3 degrees cooler in these areas than 24 hours ago. Today and Tonight: A meridionally elongated upper ridge will prevail from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the west coast states and into southwest Canada. This will support subtropical high pressure over the eastern Pacific whose influence will impinge on our area.
1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure is centered over the southern Great Lakes this morning and extends across the TN/MS Valleys.
(This evening through Wednesday) An upper level ridge will remain over Texas through tomorrow, resulting in dry weather, with near to slightly above normal temperatures across the area.
Dry with above normal temperatures today and Wednesday with high pressure just to our west. A broad area of low pressure develops over Arizona and northwest Mexico late week. A north wind will be slightly enhanced within the lower Colorado River Valley where Laughlin/Bullhead City could see a few gusts around 20 mph.
(Through Wednesday) The upper level low over the East Coast continues to move east, with upper level riding building behind it. Tomorrow, we'll be a touch warmer with highs making it into low to mid 80s.
A weak cold front associated with a coastal low off the mid-Atlantic coast is dropping southward across central Florida this afternoon and will gradually shift into south Florida tonight.
A gradual warming trend and dry conditions are expected through the week as high pressure builds over the region. An elongated upper ridge sets up over the west coast today through the rest of the week, promoting a slight warming and drying trend into the weekend.
321 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Two forecast challenges in the short term included timing/coverage of showers/embedded thunder tonight into early Wednesday morning, as well as timing/strength of the cold front forecast to sweep southward through the CWA Wednesday night. Rain showers with embedded thunder in a couple locations continue across the CWA under the forcing/lift influence of this broad upper level low pressure system slowly working east-southeast across South Dakota. Wednesday should eventually see some sunshine by afternoon, helping to nudge high temperatures up a few degrees warmer than today's high temperatures. Then, by early Wednesday evening, a strong cold front will be barreling southward through the CWA, with strong and blustery northerly winds likely accompanying it.
High pressure is expected to remain in control, providing clear skies, well-above normal afternoon highs, patchy valley fog in the highlands, and light wind for the most part.
1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Today through Wednesday) This AM, persistent broad E Conus surface ridging will continue through Wednesday. The exception will be some scattered cirrus across the SRN half of the state as some meager moisture traverses around the base of an upper low over VA.
Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. To the west a sharp ridge is pushing across the Great Lakes region with the next upper level trough moving across the Northern Rockies. These two features will finally be able to push out the stalled trough that has been parked on the East Coast for days now. As this occurs, a high pressure currently stalled across the Great Lakes area will be allowed to shift east and southeast. An area of high pressure currently in the Great Lakes Region will shift further east and southeast tonight through Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm through the week as high pressure builds over the area and limits the night through morning low cloud pattern. Cooler conditions will arrive over the weekend. Temperatures in most areas trending up today with very light offshore flow and high pressure aloft. Expecting highs today to generally end up being a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
115 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Fog and low clouds sticking around for a little longer than anticipated this morning, but satellite reveals a lot of the valley fog has cleared and the low clouds near Tri-Cities are in the process of breaking up. No significant changes to the forecast were made, still expect to see relative humidities to drop into the low 30s this afternoon. Low RH this afternoon with values ranging from the low to mid 30s across most areas. After the morning fog burns off, expect a beautiful day across the area with plenty of sun and slightly warmer temperatures. With drier air moving into the region from out of the north, expect low RH values this afternoon ranging from the low to upper 30s across most areas.
Tonight and Wednesday A high pressure system over the central Great Lakes will slowly slide southeast tonight and Wednesday, as a Canadian cold front approaches the Northern Plains and Lake Superior. As the high departs, moisture will gradually increase in our northwest counties, resulting in thickening mid-level clouds and a few sprinkles late tonight into Wednesday morning. A weak upper level trough will arrive in the afternoon, and generate scattered showers over mainly north central WI.
1113 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Fog and low clouds sticking around for a little longer than anticipated this morning, but satellite reveals a lot of the valley fog has cleared and the low clouds near Tri-Cities are in the process of breaking up. No significant changes to the forecast were made, still expect to see relative humidities to drop into the low 30s this afternoon. Low RH this afternoon with values ranging from the low to mid 30s across most areas. After the morning fog burns off, expect a beautiful day across the area with plenty of sun and slightly warmer temperatures. With drier air moving into the region from out of the north, expect low RH values this afternoon ranging from the low to upper 30s across most areas.
Current model guidance and sounding observations support potential mixing in the lower levels. This mixing of the lower levels will support dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures are forecasted to peak in the low 80s. /CRJ/ For tonight, RH values will climb back into the upper 90s as radiational cooling will help overnight temperatures drop into the low to the mid 50s. Areas north of Hwy 82 could see temperatures drop into the low 60s. Dry conditions will contiune as we head into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures peaking around the low 80s.
924 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Fair and warmer weather prevails today and tomorrow, as high pressure builds over the region.
(00Z TAFS) A weak coastal trough is generating isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic waters adjacent to the KMLB-KSUA corridor.
634 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 An upper low over southern South Dakota continues to generate cyclonic flow over southeastern part of the state. The loss of diurnal heating and the southeastward trek of the low will cause the storms to weaken. The slow moving upper level closed low system continues to drop south and east. For the remainder of the forecast, the region will be dominated by northwest flow aloft while a ridge builds over the western CONUS.
Very light showers will be possible overnight across northwest Oklahoma ahead of a trough within mid-level moisture plume that will remain fairly stationary into the day tomorrow. Clouds will help keep temperatures cooler here as well, with highs in the 70s, with 80s expected for much of the rest of the area by tomorrow afternoon.
937 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Temperatures for tonight were lowered a couple of degrees in a few areas, similar to some of the cooler locations this morning. Another seasonable evening is in store with lows expected to mainly be in the low to mid 50s and the normally cooler valley locations dipping into the 40s.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through the weekend.
The weak cold front that has slowly been moving through the area has provided enough moisture for few showers along the east central coast to pop up. The next couple of mornings will be a bit drier and cooler.
620 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level trough is centered over South Dakota and extends southwest over Arizona and New Mexico. The northward extension of the trough will begin to break away from the southern extension of the trough on Wednesday. Upper lift will increase across the area today due to the portion of the upper trough to the west. The southern portion of the upper trough moves over New Mexico on Wednesday which will allow for upper lift to continue to increase over the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slight cooler than those today. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or slightly cooler than tonight.
919 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A deep, closed low over the Mid-Atlantic States will lift slowly northeast over the next 24 hours with another compact wave moving eastward across the Northern Plains. A large surface anticyclone over the Great Lakes and OH Valley is providing light winds, dry air, and clear skies, promoting ideal radiational cooling conditions across the region.
704 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Through Wednesday) The upper level low over the East Coast continues to move east, with upper level riding building behind it. Tomorrow, we'll be a touch warmer with highs making it into low to mid 80s.
620 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley ridging swwd through the ArkLaTex to the wrn Gulf, maintaining a light, mainly nerly low-level flow across the forecast area.
617 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Seasonable and dry weather sticks around through midweek before a strong cold front brings much cooler weather to the area later this week into the weekend. Temperatures as of 2 PM were sitting in the low to middle 70s. Lows tonight look to range from the low to middle 40s, though can't rule out a few upper 30s in the typical cool spots.
High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather through the week. Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure over the Pacific Northwest shows little to no change through Wednesday night.
645 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 For tonight, RH values will climb back into the upper 90s as radiational cooling will help overnight temperatures drop into the low to the mid 50s. Areas north of Hwy 82 could see temperatures drop into the low 60s. Dry conditions will continue as we head into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures peaking around the low 80s.
Longwave ridging will continue to slowly weaken overnight with decreasing amplitude over the Southern and Middle Mississippi River Valley regions. The longwave ridge aloft will continue to weaken and contract more on Wednesday in its expanse from over northeast Texas spanning northeast to over Ohio. The upper low will move offshore of the Mid Atlantic Coast while troughing will dig further over Iowa extending northwest to over New Mexico. Look for mostly sunny skies across the area with highs ranging from the mid 70s far north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the lower 80s across the south and west.
The spots that have not gone calm have stayed warmer so far. Discussion: Visible and water vapor imagery reveals a large and stationary upper low located to our northeast. This low will gradually begin transitioning to the east through the rest of the short term.
758 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
A blocking pattern has been in place for a couple days with the bulk of the upper level energy locked across northern Canada within the pseudo zonal northern stream of the jet. The ridge axis passes to the east tonight but with little flow throughout the column, there will not be much advection occuring. Highs Wednesday are expected to climb into the low-mid 70s.