Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s but much cooler conditions are expected for the middle of the week. Seasonably strong (100+ kts) upper level jet and attendant PV anomaly currently diving into the Northern Plains and will carve out a very high amplitude trough over the eastern CONUS by the middle of the week. Surface analysis shows cold front currently draped from the U. This cold front will race southeast and cross our area in the 21-03Z timeframe. Ahead of the trough/front. low level gradient tightens substantially with southeast CONUS ridge holding firm. Deep trough and cyclonic NNW flow will maintain cool and cloudy conditions with periodic showers, aided by lake-induced instability.
732 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Low pressure will depart well to our northeast today while weak high pressure ridging moves overhead. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and will gradually stall over the area on Tuesday.
1103 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Strong cold front has pushed through the majority of the CWA and have some heavy cirrus/smoke moving through on satellite behind the front. As the associated upper trough digs into the MN/WI region today into this evening, a few instability showers may pop up and move through the far northeast by early evening. /Today through Tonight/ Highly advertised cold front had entered far northwest Iowa by 3 AM and will continue to push across the state. Tonight, an upper trough will push south and begin to deepen as it heads into the Great Lakes region while high pressure at the surface wedges in. A band of vorticity tied to the trough pushing in will produce a second band of mid/high clouds that will push across the state mainly this afternoon/evening.
A ridge of high pressure aloft expected to build further west today which will increase temperatures areawide. Some moisture will remain across the region under the high pressure resulting in possible afternoon thunderstorms each day, primarily over higher terrain. Still a slight chance for isolated to scattered activity mainly focused in Central Mohave County, and along the higher terrain this afternoon into the early evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 67 83 62 / 0 10 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 80 59 / 0 10 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 80 59 / 0 10 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 58 78 57 / 0 10 50 70.
Strong high pressure aloft will provide the area with dry conditions and near record highs again today. High pressure over the area will continue warm and generally dry conditions across the area, with another opportunity for locations to approach record high temperatures.
Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with high pressure firmly established across the Southeastern United States. As mentioned, the high pressure will make for a spectacular Labor Day holiday, with a mostly sunny sky and lower, comfortable RH values in the 40 to 50 percent range. Some slightly higher thickness values, temperatures aloft, and a southwest surface flow will help to push highs 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. A fairly noticeable change is expected to arrive by Tuesday morning as a strong cold front will push SE out of the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Accompanying a prefrontal trough will be a line of showers and thunderstorms, some which could develop over Middle Tennessee and push into northern fringes of the HUN CWA during the predawn hours on Tuesday morning before dying out after sunrise.
1033 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 High pressure will build over the region for this Labor Day bringing a splendid, mostly sunny and warm day. A cold front and associated showers and some gusty thunderstorms will move across the northwest third of the state tonight, then progress east across the state during the day Tuesday, focusing the severe weather threat across the southeast half of the state on Tuesday.
529 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Forecast issues will be temperatures through the period along with the low chance of precipitation tonight. Broad and strong ridge is dominating most of the western half of the country with a trough over the eastern portion leaving a northwest flow aloft over the area. Cold front and easterly upslope winds look to be through the entire area by late morning. So did not make any changes to the high temperatures. Based on that and good collaboration I lowered the lows from what the blend gave me.
940 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017 A band of altostratus has settled across N-central MT associated with a continuing push of a cooler and more humid airmass. Forecast soundings continue to suggest the cooler air could mix out with gusty north winds and afternoon relative humidity dropping near 20 percent east of a line from Havre to Lewistown.
A ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward will reach the Florida peninsula tomorrow, keeping the Keys in a enough weak pressure gradient for light to gentle breezes.
/issued 434 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ The latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows a trough lifting northeast acrs New England, while further west, a ridge of high pres was dominant over the southern Rockies and great basin.
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017 A cold front will move through the TAF sites overnight, but the winds will wait to increase until after sunrise. KDHT and KGUY will be closer to a pre-frontal trof so winds are expected to gradually veer to the north and northeast through the day. The main cold front will begin its push south primary after 06z, however winds should remain around 10 knots until better mixing occurs after sunrise Tuesday. /Issued 441 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ For today, the warmest day of the next 7 days is in the offing just ahead of a decent cold front.
The forecast for cooler temps but continued dry conditions with increasing north winds, appears to be on track. Canadian cold front dropping south through the area early this morning is ushering in cooler temperatures and gusty north to northeast winds. Eastern areas should see the lowest RH values today where drier air aloft has the potential to mix to the surface.
627 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Much cooler temperatures the next several days is the main highlight of the forecast through mid week. Current northwest flow from western Canada into the Mid Atlantic will buckle, with a deep longwave trough extending from Hudson Bay into the southeastern U.
1029 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Low pressure will depart well to our northeast today while weak high pressure ridging moves overhead. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and will gradually stall over the area on Tuesday.
947 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 High pressure will build south of the area today.
Western Bermuda ridge axis resides across south central Florida this morning and is expected to shift southward toward the Keys and Cuba during the afternoon allowing an easterly flow to set up over the region from the surface to 850 mb. The flow above 700 mb will be primarily from the southwest to west due to upper level troughing well to our north. High pressure over the western Atlantic builds south with more southerly flow expected Tue and Wed as a slow moving cool front approaches.
KDHT and KGUY will be closer to a pre-frontal trof so winds are expected to gradually veer to the north and northeast through the day. The main cold front will begin its push south primary after 06z, however winds should remain around 10 knots until better mixing occurs after sunrise Tuesday. /Issued 441 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ For today, the warmest day of the next 7 days is in the offing just ahead of a decent cold front.
927 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 A fairly weak pattern is in place aloft this morning with ridging to the east and troughing well to our north, setting up a westerly flow in the mid and upper levels. At the surface, the ridge axis is centered north of the forecast area, with a weak low-level southeasterly flow across the region. High pressure to our north with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place over the region will keep light winds and seas in place through mid-week.
642 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Cold front working into northwest IA at 08z, and have seen a small- scale blossom of lower clouds immediately around the advancing front from near KMWM and KOTG toward KSHL where lower level moisture has pooled. The story for the day will be the transition to cooler, breezy and drier conditions. Despite drying of the lower levels, the sharp cooling in the mid-levels steepens up lapse rates a touch and allows enough surface-based instability to start thinking a few showers around southwest MN by early to mid afternoon. In the intermediate term, the upper pattern is meridional with a large trough of low pressure carved out over eastern North America, and upper ridging throughout the intermountain west.
1005 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Latest RAP40 analysis shows the broad axis of the Bermuda Ridge draped over the I-4 Corridor generating a light S/SE flow thru the H100-H85 lyr. A weak frontal trof extending from the nrn Gulf Coast to the Carolina Coast is disrupting the wrn flank of the ridge, resulting in a very weak H85-H50 steering flow. PoPs decrease to 20- 30% over the Treasure Coast where slightly drier and more stable air exists near the base of the Atlc ridge axis.
1034 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Aviation sections updated A cold front is forecast to cross Indiana today.
A cold front will bring a chance for showers and a few storms this morning into early afternoon. Forecast confidence is medium to high: Low pressure passing by to the north will drag a cold front through southern Wisconsin today. The cooler airmass will continue pushing in overnight, with low temps winding up a few degrees below normal values.
1038 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 High pressure will slide offshore this afternoon through tonight.
1237 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 High pressure will build south of the area today.
1018 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 After a warm Labor Day, A cold front will bring thunderstorms and rain overnight, and will usher in below average temperature for the remainder of the week. Dry and warm conditions today as an upper troughing digs north of the Great Lakes and warm air advection ramps ups ahead of a front approaching from the west. As the aforementioned upper trough amplifies over the Midwest/Great Lakes on Tuesday, eastward frontal penetration power will be compromised by southwest/semi-parallel flow aloft.
Mid/high clouds will increase from the north tonight as a cold front approaches the region. A big ridge of high pressure will build over the western United States, and that is where the heat will go. East of the Rockies, a large trough will be carved out, with a northwest wind flow aloft driving a cold front through Arkansas. Rain will taper off from the north Tuesday night, and it will be a lot cooler.
520 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with much cooler air filtering into the region. Upper level analysis shows somewhat flattened ridge remaining over the Great Basin region and the Pacific NW, with stronger northwest flow sinking south into the Northern Plains. Another mainly dry week can be expected across the area as strong ridge builds back north into western Canada and brings dry air south out of central Canada. Much cooler conditions can be expected across the area into midweek, with temps slightly below average.
Mainly dry and warm conditions will continue today as high pressure stays in control. Expect a slow increase in shower and thunderstorms activity for the remainder of the week, as high pressure weakens and southerly flow develops. A moderately strong area of high pressure orientated from NW to SE over the Great Basin will keep relatively dry and warm conditions over the area today. As early as tomorrow afternoon, the high pressure will begin to slowly weaken and series of weak s/wvs will enter the state, moving westward around the ridge.
618 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017 The upper pattern is characterized by northwesterly flow aloft over western and north central NE, with a ridge of high pressure across the western states and a broad trough over the northeastern U.
/issued 358 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ Local area continues to be under the influence of high pressure from the mid atlantic states through North GA providing for a tranquil weather pattern. In general went on the high side of guidance, especially for NW corner late where PWs increase to 1.
154 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will push through the region overnight. High pressure will then provide dry weather through mid week. A weak cold front will move southeast through the region overnight. Lows will be chilly, ranging from near 50 north to the lower/mid 50s south. Tuesday will be dry with rather cool highs from the lower 70s northeast to the mid 70s southwest. With heights rising, and southerly flow firmly in place in the low levels, warm advection should be notable -- with a temperature rise to near 80 degrees.
Trof will push a cold front across eastern Montana this morning with winds turning west and increasing.
421 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure crosses tonight. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the week.
330 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Upper level ridge remains in place across the western US with NW flow across the plains this morning. Severe indices look good for hail and wind, and adequate deep layer shear could support supercell and at least a elevated tornado threat particularly near pre-frontal trough/frontal zone in the north.
403 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Surface map of the country dominated by high pressure from the Plains to the Atlantic coast. As the ridge shifts eastward into the Midwest, mild weather will continue for today, albeit with a warming trend. High pressure moving into Central IL will put the region under the axis of the ridge. As the ridge slides slowly eastward.
614 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A strong cold front will push across the area today reinforcing the unseasonably cool air across the forecast area.
Tuesday and Wednesday, northeast California and western Nevada will be under zonal or northwest flow aloft as a weak trough moves through the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
506 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will dominate for midweek. The high will move off the east coast setting up a warmer and more humid airflow for the end of the week.
Dewpoints are generally in the 50's to the lower 60's today, and these will increase to the mid 60's to around 70 by the end of the term. Above the surface, the area will remain at the eastern edge of an upper level ridge tomorrow, and this will flatten out by Wednesday.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms which developed over the higher terrain early this afternoon will drift into the valleys and plains by this evening.
Dry northwesterly flow across the region persists with broad upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific. A weak ridge moves across the Pacific Northwest later in the week, for slightly warmer temperatures across the region.
646 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest today and move into the Ohio Valley tonight.
300 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 An upper disturbance will bring a few showers later today, followed by drier and slightly cooler air through mid week.
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will dominate for midweek. The high will move off the east coast setting up a warmer and more humid airflow for the end of the week.
155 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area today, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. Current CAM solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. High temps Tuesday upper 70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast.
The main concern is placement of the low level jet and orientation of the strong theta-e ridge /85h- 70h/, which may displace the core of the convection either north or south of MPX forecast area. Later shifts need to focus on the development of the low level jet and how it sets up in the increasing unstable atmosphere. The EC and somewhat of the latest GFS does show an upper ridge beginning to build across the center of the country.
A weak disturbance, rotating around the upper low over the Great Lakes region, will affect our area this evening and into the overnight hours. Easterly flow tomorrow will become southerly on Wednesday ushering in warmer and more humid conditions.
Due to this the high temperatures have been dropped 3-5 degrees into the low to mid 70s to account for the colder airmass, cloud coverage, and precipitation. The clear skies will allow enough nocturnal cooling with temps into the lower to mid 50s creating the possibility of lower visibilities in fog near sunrise, especially over areas that got precipitation today. A strong LLJ will develop along the warm sector of the low over the central plains. This low and associated LLJ will move east into western Missouri Wednesday afternoon increasing dewpoints into the lower 70s and temperatures into the mid to upper 80s with strong southerly winds sustained around 20mph gusting to 30-35 mph.
411 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The recent upper pattern with a ridge over the western US and a trough over the east will break down with upper flow becoming mostly zonal.
250 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 WV imagery this morning shows upper ridge axis over the Mountain West, with upper trof over the ern CONUS.
417 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A trough of low pressure will remain to our west through mid week. Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the area this afternoon and again on Wednesday.
333 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Model consensus is strong for the next trough currently entering the Pacific Northwest to gradually break down the ridge that will begin our return to more seasonable heat beginning this afternoon.
427 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest today and move into the Ohio Valley tonight.
As the cold front moves into the western CWA and towards the Missouri valley between 00 and 03Z it will be the focus for surface based convection, with the core of 700mb warm air moving off to the east.
133 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 An upper level trough will linger over the eastern Great Lakes into late Tuesday. High pressure at the surface will finally reach the area on Tuesday night before shifting to the East Coast on Wednesday.
345 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will approach from the west today and will likely aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong to severe this afternoon.
336 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A strong cold front will push across the area today reinforcing the unseasonably cool air across the forecast area.
Benign conditions tonight as high pressure settles in and nocturnal stability takes hold. Low pressure tracking into Georgian Bay will continue to drag an axis of moisture across Southeast Michigan early this morning. Low freezing level (6-7kft) will once again bring the risk for small hail with any thunderstorm that develops. The remainder of the night and most of Wednesday look dry as high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley extends northward into Lower Michigan. Active pattern then setting up from Wednesday night through the end of the week as upper energy now pushing through Oregon tracks through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and is followed by the upper low now over British Columbia and Alberta. Strong low-level jet will usher warmer air and moisture into the area Wednesday night, spiking PW values up close to 1.
403 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Upper level ridge axis was located over eastern MT. Upper level \ridge will move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Upper level low pressure system over eastern OR will move through the forecast area late tonight and Wed morning. Also cold frontal system will move through on Wed. Another upper level low pressure system over BC will move through late Thu into Fri morning for the next round of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday and reach into the mid to upper 80s.
142 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 An upper level disturbance will exit the region early this morning allowing a ridge of high pressure to move in from the west. This high pressure will provide dry conditions and continued below normal temperatures today and tonight. As the high pressure system moves east Wednesday, southerly winds will develop over our area leading to a little warmer and more humid conditions.
634 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure crosses tonight. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the week.
Nocturnal thunderstorms were aided by an outflow boundary as it tracked southeastward, but were mostly supported by an upper trough tracking through eastern Oregon. The activity will continue to shift out of the area as the upper disturbance and trough move to the east by midday. A weak and (mostly) dry cold front will move through the region tonight. Cooler temperatures will follow on Wednesday, with highs slightly below normal.
Main deterrent for convective development will be respectable capping with convective temperatures in the lower 90s which will likely limit any development until late afternoon at the earliest. The cold front will have moved out to the east by Wednesday morning, leaving cooler, drier weather for Wednesday. High pressure rushes through Wednesday afternoon and evening, continuing to reinforce drier air, but return flow will begin bringing some low level moisture in behind the high pressure system.
Tonight and into Wednesday morning upper ridging to the west of the state will shift east over Arkansas. The ridge will lose some aplitude as it does so, but the combination of the ridge aloft and the return flow pattern at the surface will push temperatures back up to near normal values.
249 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the today. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday.
406 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A nice, quiet day is in store for everyone today has high pressure has settled in over the area. As the high moves southeast today, winds will shift to the south, starting a warming trend. Today, temperatures will warm into the low 80s. This is still below average, but warmer than what we have been experiencing the past few days.
The moisture combined with a baggy trough aloft, moderate CAPE, and fairly strong low level convergence along the coast where a coastal trough resides, will produce sct to num SHRA/TSRA's. Am expecting rain chcs to be a tad lower on Wed as the upper trough shifts S and E of the region with some drying in the mid/upper levels and PWATs decreasing to between 1.
The highest chcs are expected over southeast TX, tapering to a slgt chc acrs central LA.
Surface analysis this evening shows the region dominated by high pressure. This approaching high pressure system will act to keep the rest of Tuesday/Tuesday night dry with another pleasant day as this dry/cool airmass arrives. Meanwhile, a low to mid-level ridge builds over the Southeast from the Bahamas/Florida as an upstream trough and decreasing mid-level level heights and increasing LLJ across the Plains states brings the potential for severe weather over the Plains.
256 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The axis of the upper ridge is over the Rockies, and a trough over the Pacific Northwest is beginning to break down the ridge. Thermal ridge will shift over western SD, and temperatures will rise to the mid 80s to lower 90s. CAMs are showing a line of storms developing across western SD and moving into central SD this evening ahead of the cold front. Temps will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday behind the cold front. Another weak wave associated with the upper trough will produce some showers/storms across northeastern WY and the Black Hills.