Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move slowly east to the New England coast by Sunday morning. This will allow a warm front to lift northeast across the area today. A cold front will move east across the area Sunday evening. High pressure will be the dominating weather feature through the day. As high pressure begins to move east of the region, expecting weak warm air advection to take place today at the surface. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday due to the warm air advection beginning to develop. High pressure remains in control tonight as it moves east of the area.
938 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 12Z sounding this morning continued to show very warm and dry mid levels with a freezing level over 16. For southeast Georgia, a weak cold front will push southward across central Georgia and South Carolina today, and moisture will begin to increase. South to southwest winds will persist through tonight and then become easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold front sags south into the waters.
Warming trend continues today with high pressure and northerly surface gradient. Westerly flow aloft has moved into Northern California as an upper low over the Northern Rockies moves eastward.
747 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Heat and humidity will return today with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s by the afternoon.
Just like yesterday, this morning started off warm with temperatures in the lower 70s. However, with less cloud cover today, current temps have jumped up into the lower 90s in NW AL and the mid 80s in southern middle TN where there are some clouds. With this observation, adjusted cloud cover, hourly temps and slightly increased the highs for today as well. NW AL could reach the upper 90s with the lower 90s back in NE AL. The boundary combined with daytime heating and a weak disturbance rounding the upper-level ridge this afternoon could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor loop shows an upper low circulating over southeast Alberta. Cyclonic flow and additional moisture wrapping around on the back side of the low will infiltrate northern ND today. At the surface, a low pressure in the James River Valley will ride up along a cold front during the morning, entering southern Manitoba by early afternoon. For the afternoon the main threat for thunderstorms will be across the north, closest to the upper low and steeper low level lapse rates. On Sunday the h500 upper low will be centered near Lake Winnipeg moving east. A weak trough from the low extends to the west across northern North Dakota.
(Issued 203 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016) Water vapor imagery and streamflow depicts a ridge centered over the central Gulf states. A ribbon of moisture was strung along the rim of the ridge from the central Plains thru the mid South thru TN and north AL to a trof axis off the Carolinas. Dew points were running from the upper 60s into the lower 70s. The GFS mixes the low level atmosphere more thoroughly than the NAM, and this may be more reasonable given the past couple of days. However, the wave is forecast to weaken further and moisture transport is non- existent beneath the ridge position. The ridge continues to weaken through Sunday into Sunday Night, so it will become easier for daytime convection to develop.
1141 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move slowly east to the New England coast by Sunday morning. This will allow a warm front to lift northeast across the area today. A cold front will move east across the area Sunday evening. High pressure will be the dominating weather feature through the day. As high pressure begins to move east of the region, expecting weak warm air advection to take place today at the surface. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday due to the warm air advection beginning to develop. High pressure remains in control tonight as it moves east of the area.
Water vapor loop indicated upper level low pressure system over southern ALTA with an upper jet moving up the east side of the trough. Upper jet will shift over the area this afternoon and upper trough will move across southern MAN Sat night. N-S Cold frontal boundary forecast to move to the Red River by 18Z.
/issued 439 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ An upper high that has been situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portion of the Southeast shifts west a bit, but otherwise remains in control. The resultant subsidence will continue to bring temps well above seasonal, with highs today generally in the upper 90s, and overnight lows tonight in the low 70s, along with keeping the area generally rain free. We may see the front sag a bit farther south, extending from the Tennessee Valley into the Lowcountry of South Carolina Sunday. With a weakening influence from the ridge, expect at least some shower and thunderstorm activity to return to the forecast area by Sunday afternoon.
Difluent upper level flow will remain over South Texas to the southeast of the low.
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to dominate the forecast area today. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through the weekend. and eventually evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.
716 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 With a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather across the region.
The showers have kept temperatures down a couple degrees in their immediate vicinity but most of our cwa was running a degree or two warmer than yesterday at 11 am. The subtropical mid/upper level ridge will continue to be the primary weather influence for the ArkLaMiss region as we go through the weekend. Recent area RAOBS show that strong subsidence and drying associated with the ridge has maintained a capped airmass, but will note that the cap is not quite as strong as previously observed. Heat stress will also continue to be a concern in association with the ridge.
Models show high pressure building and moving back west. The flow pattern really starts to look good later in the week as hghts fall and the high consolidates over New Mexico. Dry air aloft to cover most of northern Arizona today, and limit limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county.
Looks like one good shot for rain today before the upper low/TUTT moves out of the area (or at least most of its influence) and drier air comes in from the east. Should be a little cooler today with the clouds and rain around, but then warm up again on Sunday, except farther west where clouds will hang around and keep temperatures down.
Of particular note is the high PWAT values expected.
557 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin redeveloping around mid day along and ahead of a cold front that will be sweeping across the forecast area today. Weak westerly flow aloft and the amplification of high pressure over the western U. along with high pressure moving across the central high plains will diminish the possibility of storms across the region on Sunday. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain and across the plains will be possible again late in the day and through the evening as storms develop in the convergent area of higher moisture return flow along the front range.
Upper air analysis from 00z soundings show an upper level low over northern Mexico just west of the Rio Grande. An upper level ridge was located mainly over LA/MS.
/Issued 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ The dominate high pressure that has resided across the Southern Plains over past several days will build back northward some today and Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast for this afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees across the CWA. a low pressure system currently over Montana and Southern Canada is progged to continue to shift eastward along/near the United States Canada border with a trailing frontal boundary moving into the Central Plains. latest model solutions continue to retreat the ridge of high pressure westward over the Desert Southwest.
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will push through the area this afternoon. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend. Another cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it through late in the week. The cold front looks like it is moving inland with the sea breeze as expected vicinity of the Crystal Coast and will continue inland for the remainder of the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with a light NE breeze and lower dewpoints making for pleasantly cooler temps with lows in the low/mid 60s interior to upper 60s/near 70 beaches.
A weak upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will bring dry weather today, with morning clouds giving way to sunshine. Days should be mostly sunny and a little warmer than normal with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. A weak upper ridge will move east of the Cascades today. The low level moisture will dry, so mainly cloudy skies this morning should gradually give way to partly to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon for the lowlands. Light westerly flow aloft will continue tonight and Sunday, and an upper ridge will start building over the Pacific Northwest.
945 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Skies around the Mid-South are mostly clear this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80's at 9:30 AM.
644 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Frontal system continues to move away from the area with widespread vfr conditions expected as upper level high pressure rebuilds over the area.
Coverage should decrease overnight slowly as instability decreases, although we kept low probabilities late in the night through Sunday morning given presence of convergent surface boundary, convective outflow and increasing large scale ascent from approaching upper low from the south. As diurnal destabilization occurs on Sunday coincident with the northern edge of upper low, thunderstorm coverage will be higher across most of the area, not just the northwest as has been the case in prior days.
629 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 At H5 closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. Fairly strong closed low over Montana this morning creating weather from the central into the northern plains. Weak ridge ahead of this system through the Mississippi Valley and a trough from the Hudson Bay low into the east coast. Highs today in the low 80s and lows tonight in the 50s to around 60.
Rose Next cold front currently approaching the northern CO border will move into southeast Colorado later this morning and afternoon, stalling out to the south of Highway 50. Meanwhile, southern extent of the upper trof axis will be swinging through WY and northern CO this afternoon, with weak embedded impulses within the moisture plume bringing some lift over southern CO this afternoon. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail will be the main threats with all thunderstorms today as deep layer shear is running a tad on the low slide. Temperatures today will run around 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, particularly on the plains. This will provide for scattered pops along the higher terrain and isolated storms for the e plains, with convection developing by late morning the most likely scenario.
This moisture will be shunted to the south and east of the CWA today as the upper flow becomes westerly on the southern periphery of an upper low moving along the US/canadian border. Mild tonight then a bit warmer Sunday.
A flat ridge of high pressure will build over the region today following the departure of yesterdays trough passage. This will lead to warmer temperatures and lighter winds today and overnight.
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide fair weather to our area through this evening. Cloudiness will increase late tonight as a cold front approaches, and there is a slight chance of thunderstorms west of Interstate 69 by Sunday morning. A warm southeast to south flow will continue today on the back side of a ridge of high pressure. There is a good chance for thunderstorms by late in the day as the upper level trof moves into the area. Wind directions in the lower atmosphere should be relatively unidirectional.
A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through the region and become diffuse during the day.
Otherwise, look for another dry 24 hours, with highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 90s and lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
Currently cold front over the northwest portion of the area with some minor shower development. So also increased coverage to chance per all this and good agreement with the high resolution guidance. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin redeveloping around mid day along and ahead of a cold front that will be sweeping across the forecast area today. Weak westerly flow aloft and the amplification of high pressure over the western U. along with high pressure moving across the central high plains will diminish the possibility of storms across the region on Sunday. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain and across the plains will be possible again late in the day and through the evening as storms develop in the convergent area of higher moisture return flow along the front range.
Most will remain dry today, but additional development is expected late this afternoon and evening along a cold front moving into SW KS/NW OK. Also, cannot completely rule out isolated moist convection near SW OK this afternoon as upper div increases across this region in response to upper low lifting slowly to the north over west TX. There will be a low chance of damaging winds Sunday across this area, along with a threat of localized flash flooding (Kay County does not need any additional rainfall for a few days but unfortunately that's where the highest PoPs are expected).
The stalled frontal boundary from the Dakotas to southern IL will push into western IL as a weak warm front bringing at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to areas west of a Bloomington to Effingham line by afternoon. An increase in temperatures and dewpoints can also be expected in this pattern with temperatures rising to the low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s to make it somewhat hot and humid compared to yesterday. Upper low currently along the Montana/Alberta border will be tracking east-northeast this weekend, dragging an associated cold front across the Midwest later tonight through Sunday.
Broad upper ridge over the Gulf Coast region this morning to slowly retrograde westward to the Lower Mississippi River Valley by 00Z Sunday as upper trough in the Western Atlantic becomes a weak closed low off New England. Weak Western Atlantic surface ridging back into the area while a frontal boundary stays well N of the area.
1030 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure in place across the region will provide for mainly sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures today.
Several subsidence inversions exist with the first one around 6500 feet as the sprawling ridge of high pressure remains over the Gulf Coast States. /issued 356 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ Upper level ridge has spread across the southern gulf states from Texas to Florida and will generally remain over the forecast area through the weekend. Subsidence from this ridge will keep rain chances at a minimum. So have kept previous fcst high temps of around 95 today and 95-98 for Sunday in typically warmer areas of the CWA from BTR to HDC and MCB.
619 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this feature. With a bit of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning. Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70 corridor by Sunday evening.
937 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move slowly east to the New England coast by Sunday morning. This will allow a warm front to lift northeast across the area today. A cold front will move east across the area Sunday evening. High pressure will be the dominating weather feature through the day. As high pressure begins to move east of the region, expecting weak warm air advection to take place today at the surface. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday due to the warm air advection beginning to develop. High pressure remains in control tonight as it moves east of the area.
/39 Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to dominate the forecast area today. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through the weekend. and eventually evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a weak surface front/trough that extends east to west across central Georgia.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still a few degrees below normal. Influence of upper-low over Montana/Canada border diminishing across the forecast area, as an upper-level ridge builds in from the south and west.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 73 94 74 / 0 10 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 70 91 71 / 0 10 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 93 70 92 71 / 0 10 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 30.
Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the Continental Divide. The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in across the region. A bit more moisture will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the Ohio Valley.
/issued 403 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Tropical moisture continues to increase across the region courtesy of deep southerly flow between the large upper low over North Central Mexico and Broad mid level high pressure across the Southern Gulf Coast. The abundant tropical moisture to combine with increasing upper diffluence and lift associated with the northward moving upper low leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire Rio Grande Valley. NAM, GFS and ECMWF all move the upper low farther north with mid and upper level winds turning southwest to west cutting off the tropical moisture feed.
/issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
Early this morning a mid-level trough was stretched across the northern Rockies with a mid-level ridge in place across the southeastern U. The mid-level trough across the northern Rockies will shift eastward into the Dakotas today, and this advancing trough will help to push an area of low pressure and an associated cold front eastward into the forecast area. As this cold front slowly shifts eastward across the CWA tonight into Sunday morning, precipitation chances will also spread eastward. Despite morning cloud cover across north central Kansas, partly to mostly sunny skies across much of northeast and east central Kansas should allow for decent destabilization through the day as southerly winds aid in high temperatures reaching into the low/mid 90s east to mid/upper 90s west.
956 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will push through the area this morning. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend. Another cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it through late in the week. The cold front is analyzed roughly from along or just off of the Crystal Coast to near Florence,SC. Guidance is indicating that the cold front will become quasi- stationary this morning then be pushed briefly north later this afternoon with the sea breeze from the Crystal Coast/Onslow county to adjacent inland counties. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with a light NE breeze and lower dewpoints making for pleasantly cooler temps with lows in the low/mid 60s interior to upper 60s/near 70 beaches.
Surface wise, a narrow ridge is aligned across North Central Florida and the adjacent nearshore atlantic and gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds with the highest on the Florida Straits can be expected for the balance of today, before a slight increase overspreads our marine district tonight.
Today looks to be another hot one as upper ridging remains fairly strong across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures look to rise into the low to mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 954 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A slowly weakening high pressure ridge in proximity to the area will keep light gradient flow conditions in place.
1008 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming temperatures move in.
a cold front will move through NE MN this afternoon and NW WI this evening. an area of high pressure will build into the region late saturday night brining in cooler and drier air for Sunday.
Low temperatures will only drop into the lower and middle 30s.
Have kept skies mostly cloudy through the morning, but most of the area should be seeing some sunshine by afternoon as a ridge of high pressure drifts eastward. Wednesday temperatures will be dependent on how fast the low clouds break, but mid-upper 40s appear feasible, especially over the southwest CWA. High pressure moving off to the east will allow moisture to return to the area just ahead of the next weather system coming out of the southern plains.
Warm advection over the top of the cold frontal boundary that moved through overnight is combining with lift from the approaching upper level low moving into New Mexico. Warmer on Wednesday afternoon as clouds break and we see quite a bit of sun.
Winds will gradually decrease a bit towards morning so still expect the lowest readings towards morning. West to southwest winds will continue to bring even warmer 925mb temps into the area, and there should be some decent mixing. Think that mixing and warm air advection will help, but did lean towards the cooler end of the models with mid teens just east of the Red and some upper teens and 20s elsewhere. 500mb ridging will continue through the work week with temps hinging on fog development and clouds.
649 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 High pressure is forecast to keep the weather quiet under VFR conditions through the TAF period. High temperatures had topped out in the low 80s along the east coast with mid-80s inland, values around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.
403 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 What a change a day can make, our storm system has exited the region and has been replaced with full sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cut off upper level low will track northeast into our forecast area on Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected with this system. We are really only expecting an increase in mid to high level clouds as this upper low tracks overhead.
600 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 The positions of an upper level low off to the west and a stationary front along the upper TX Coast will leave North and Central Texas in an overrunning pattern for the next 24 to 36 hours.
816 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 An upper-trough shifting through the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians will drag a front through the Tennessee Valley overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 61 49 62 / 60 20 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 58 42 58 / 60 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 48 58 42 58 / 60 20 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 56 35 57 / 70 30 10 40.
Bulk of heavy rainfall still upstream, and will materialize as upper low over sw states continue to move east across central/srn plains, with mid lvl temps cooling as airmass continues to undergo deep saturation. Low lvl dynamics will be decent although sfc winds will not be stg as most of the low characteristics not sfc based, including instability, which will remain mostly elevated. Thus, risk for svr wx still marginal despite stg mid and upper lvl flow around base of upper low.