Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low interacting with a surface front will keep rain showers over parts of central Indiana into the overnight hours. High pressure will build in Wednesday and scatter out cloud cover and bring a slow warming trend along with dry conditions through Thursday.
Models take last vort max through state today around base of positive-tilt 500 mb trough that finally swings east tonight.
106 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 For tonight, weak low pressure moving along a cold front will bring clouds to the area. High pressure will gradually build into the region during the remainder of the week, but there will be a threat of afternoon showers on Thursday.
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 High pressure over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will provide the Northland will another clear and calm night, with temperatures dipping down to the lower to middle 30s for much of the forecast area. Leaned on gfs and nam mos guidance for overnight lows considering the low dew point temperatures this afternoon and the mos guidance being much colder than the rest of the guidance. The high pressure will shift south and east Wednesday, bringing southerly light southerly flow to the Northland. The fairly sunny weather and southerly flow will help temperatures reach the upper 60s and low 70s, but flow from Lake Superior will keep the North Shore cooler in the lower 60s.
344 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Expansive area of high pressure is building over the Great Lakes and will hold over the region through the end of the week.
Further modifications to the temperature trend forecast were also necessary as temperatures are already starting off warmer than originally forecast. An area of ifr clouds behind the cold front over W TN is approaching the region and have timed the arrival btwn 18/09Z-13Z at KMSL and 18/11Z-14Z at KHSV.
Thursday, high pressure ridging into the Southeast will set up a wedge boundary across the forecast area with weak ridging aloft. In the southern portion of the forecast area, significantly warmer temperatures will allow for a weakly unstable airmass.
Skies will finally clear out tonight, and freezing temperatures are likely both Wednesday and Thursday mornings near US-10. Frost is likely tonight mainly north of I-96 and south of the freezing area. Freezing temperatures are likely tonight and tomorrow night along US- 10, which could kill or damage tender vegetation. Frost is likely tonight south of the freezing area and north of I-96.
An upper level ridge over the area will weaken today and a weak front will move inland across the area. A cold upper low will then gradually shift southward and into the region tonight through Thursday night. This low will bring cool and showery conditions.
650 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will slide slowly south through northeast Pennsylvania today bringing light showers. An upper level low pressure system may bring a few showers to the area Thursday. Best chance of shwrs thu will be over the higher terrain of the cats which will also be closer to the coldest air aloft.
The prime area for fog formation has been over Central MS, just ahead of a cold front that has pushed through the Delta region.
High pressure was centered over central Minnesota with developing low pressure over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan and a trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. The high pressure is forecast to move southeastward slowly to Wisconsin tonight.
553 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Cool high pressure will gradually build in from the west through the remainder of the week.
Boundary layer high pressure will remain settled over the region through at least Thursday. Light winds will support the cooler readings along Lake Michigan. Likely due to increased surface dewpoints and weak upper low pressure. otherwise will let dry conditions to continue with dominate high pressure.
451 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Analysis of water vapor satellite imagery this morning indicates a broad upper low pressure system over AZ with several lobes of vorticity rotating around it. Today's max temps in the 50s and 60s will still be close to 20 degrees below normal though! Slight chance for showers today, and chances increase by tonight as the next wave ejects out ahead of the upper low.
Looking closer to home, a cold front was noted from a Monroe to a Shreveport to a Nacogdoches line, thus resulting in a wind shift to the north and intermittent light isolated showers. The cold front will push south of the cwa later this morning and the slight frontogenetic forcing coupled with adequate low level moisture may result in additional intermittent isolated showers, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder especially if skies scatter out a bit this aftn and destabilization occurs.
VFR conditions to begin this period as a weak cold front continues to advance through east Texas and into southwest Arkansas and extreme northwest Louisiana. /issued / 02z sfc analysis showing a weak cold front extending from near a ACT. Fcst min temps in the ballpark assuming the front continues to move southeast overnight with some slightly drier/cooler temps in the wake of the boundary towards sunrise mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor.
643 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Low pressure and rain showers will move east today. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are expected today.
A surface cold front is moving slowly south and should become quasi-stationary as it reaches the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. The highest PoPs throughout the day Wednesday appear to be in the eastern side of the forecast area. Extensive cloud cover and precipitation will hold back the high temperatures over the short term period to the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer, in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with high relative humidity.
An upper level trough/low, located near extreme southeast California at 00z Wednesday, will move east across the four corners region today. For today given the increasing clouds across southwest Kansas and 900mb to 850mb temperature trends will continue to place the warmer high temperatures in north central and south central Kansas. On Thursday the chance for showers will increase across all of western Kansas as the upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains.
Dry conditions are expected today into much of tonight, with our forecast area in between two upper troughs, one over the great lakes and a second over the southwest. Some sun should allow highs to be a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday, although readings will still be below average.
331 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Absolutely no precip expected today and tonight as high pressure sits over the area with an accompanying dry airmass. Should see lows approaching freezing over the typical cold spots tonight, with temperatures elsewhere generally below 40F.
139 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Variable cloudiness and warming temperatures are expected through the end of the week and into the weekend as a weak upper trough of low pressure will builds southward across the North County tonight, while weak high pressure builds toward the Saint Lawrence Valley.
416 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will slide slowly south through northeast Pennsylvania today bringing light showers. An upper level low pressure system may bring a few showers to the area Thursday. Best chance of shwrs thu will be over the higher terrain of the cats which will also be closer to the coldest air aloft.
A cold front will push into south central Texas today while a mid level short wave trough moves across Arizona and New Mexico, maintaining a potentially destabilizing west southwest flow aloft, if weak disturbances are detected moving within the flow.
305 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 High pressure is currently over eastern Minnesota.
and portions of the lower and middle Susquehanna Valley as a disturbance at upper levels moves northeast across the region.
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 A REX blocking pattern will begin to weaken for the upper ridge axis to shift southeast tonight into Wednesday. Models have been warmer than actual observations with low temperatures nudged toward cooler MAV and EC guidance. Wednesday the upper ridge weakens with the short term model more progressive that will keep the area dry. for now left pops out as high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft, however, isolated showers may develop in parts of the southwest as lapse rates steepen during the day.
337 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 The upper flow is rather weak and over the course of the short term gradually evolves into a ridge aloft as a upper trof pushes into the Rockies.
Upper ridge will develop across eastern Montana behind this wave as a strong upper low begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest. This ridge and low will be the main weather features through the weekend with only a slight shift eastward during the period. With the trof digging to the west, southwest flow will begin to pump moisture into the state. Divergence aloft will be focused over central Montana with ridge axis over the eastern counties. This will push the lee trof east into the plains so should see thunderstorms spreading across the western zones Thursday evening. Eastern zones still under the influence of the ridge so expect thunderstorms to weaken as they move away from the mountains.
Storm system which brought cooler temperatures and widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region today will exit the region on Wednesday with dryer conditions and warming temperatures expected.
The low begins to fill, evolving into an open wave as it shifts to northwest New Mexico later today.
255 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Cool high pressure will gradually build in from the west through the remainder of the week.
Favored the lower side of temp guidance tonight under clear skies and PWAT values near 0. Forecast mixing to 800 mb will also likely drive dew points into the lower to mid 20s.
The axis of an upper level transitional ridge will be passing over the area today will keep temperatures warm. The next upper low will be moving swiftly south along the coast, and ahead of it some isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Northern most portions of Valley, Adams, and Baker counties. But late Wednesday into very early Thursday, models are in good agreement of a cold front sweeping through the area, and be through the Magic Valley by mid day Thursday.
Temperatures have fallen into the lower 40s where it has cleared with temperatures remaining around 50 under the cloud cover. Highs this afternoon will warm into the middle to upper 60s as lows tonight drop into the lower to middle 40s, a few spots across central MO may drop into the lower 40s tonight. An upper level trough currently over the southwestern U.
Skies will then begin to clear from the north overnight as high pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday providing fair weather. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s, with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday. Otrws sfc ridging will broaden/expand acrs the lakes this pd. Beyond that tremendous ridging aloft folds ewd from the plains into the lakes by lt weekend through mid nxt week w/a warmup back to normal or a bit abv xpcd. Sensible wx concerns though appear nil at this point through the pd in light of non-existent rtn gomex flw and wwd troughing fvrd through the wrn US. Weak low level convergence associated with passing midlevel trough axis is maintaining light rain showers around KFWA.
346 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 A broad upper trough remains west of the region today resulting in persistently unsettled SW flow aloft and continued rain chances. At the surface, a cold front will be somewhat stationary across the far southern zones today with cool easterly flow across areas north of the front. We continue to see high winds reported at Guadalupe Pass overnight but speeds are expected to drop below high winds criteria by 12Z at which point the High Wind Warning will expire. The main upper low, now located over AZ, will slowly move east today and weaken, becoming an open wave as it approaches the western zones this evening. Models hit at maybe an MCS developing near the lower Trans Pecos late tonight. Thursday, rain chances will end from west to east as the upper trough lifts NE.
Some veering of winds will occur on Saturday as the high shifts farther east, allowing a more E/SE component with speeds ranging from 5-10 kts and possibly a bit higher over the east Texas terminals in the afternoon/evening.
This will keep overnight low temperatures a bit warmer and currently forecast to fall only into the middle teens. Last few model runs are showing better agreement in the timing of the sfc front holding the freezing temperatures across far northern Kansas, while temps along and south of Interstate 70 increase from the middle 30s Sunday morning to the lower 40s in the afternoon as warmer air advects into the region from the southwest. Saturation in the lowest 800 mb contribute to the potential for light drizzle during the day while better forcing and moisture availability occurs just to our east in Missouri. Temperatures initially in the morning hover near freezing across far northeast Kansas. Therefore I mentioned a slight chance for freezing drizzle.
Cigs will fall to IFR/MVFR everywhere on Saturday as a low pressure system moves in.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The evening begins with Arctic high pressure centered over the local region and an upper ridge axis in line with the Northern and Canadian Rockies. An upper closed low centered over Vancouver Island will be ejecting Pacific moisture into the PacNW. The low opens up as it moves inland tonight, knocking down the ridge and sending moisture across the Divide. Sunday will see a weak ridge follow which will produce slightly warmer highs, around 5F to 10F warmer than Saturday.
Lee side trough development from southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico has resulted in gusty southwest winds.
357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 With high pressure continuing to depart to our east, southerly and southeasterly low-level flow has returned to the region. Impressive warm advection will commence tonight ahead of a developing area of low pressure across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. As the lower-levels rapidly moisten to near saturation, areas of very light precipitation or drizzle are expected to develop, primarily near and east of the I-35 corridor overnight Saturday.
In the low levels, mesoanalysis placed a cyclone along the Cheyenne Ridge with this feature eventually developing south through the central High Plains, along a southward-moving cold front.
316 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 Arctic high pressure will maintain some of the coldest temperatures of the season through tonight.
1243 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 Building high pressure will keep temperatures below normal tonight into Saturday.
225 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 Surface data shows ridge of high pressure over western IL which will be east today as a system strengthens in the lee of the Rockies. By Sunday 12z, the main low pressure center will be into the western plains.
The cold frontal boundary that moved south across the region yesterday is now located south of the Florida Straits, with high pressure building to the north across much of the southeast CONUS. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, ranging from the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight temperatures will not be as cold with southerly winds keeping values near or above freezing over southern Kansas. Still see a signal in the models with increasing moisture trying to saturate the low- levels for late tonight/Sunday morning.
A weak low pressure system to our north will bring a slight chance of rain showers to the area on Sunday. Sct SC with bases from 3-5kft agl may form tonight through sunrise Saturday north of KFLG, over the higher terrain.
At the surface, arctic high pressure has pushed off to the east as a strengthening lee trough has developed to our west. Models having a little difficulty in the handling of the low level moisture and cloud fields today. So was confident enough to add patchy fog, freezing due to much below 32 degree temperatures, for along and east of the Colorado border from late this evening into tomorrow morning.
Current water vapor/500mb analysis shows an energetic mid-level trough making it's way into the Pacific Northwest. A bit warmer on Sunday with highs in the middle/upper 20s.
253 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 After a cold start this mrng with lows arnd 20, temps will slowly warm into the low to mid 40s by the aftn under mostly sunny skies. This should keep mrng lows on Sunday a little warmer than this mrng, mainly in the mid to upper 20s.
/issued 210 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ Have a weak upper trough over Eastern US today with a ridge over the West.
tonight through Sunday Arctic high pressure settled in over the area last night bringing the coldest air of the season to many areas. Associated cold front will be over NW Arkansas by the of the period with enough moisture being pulled back in for precipitation chances returning to the forecast.
350 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 First off, we are seeing some freezing fog develop in the Pecos River Valley west to the Marfa Plateau. There could be a few slick spots on area bridges and overpasses, but the fog should dissipate by mid-morning.
While the arctic airmass has been dislodged, extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures in check today with readings only forecast to edge close to the freezing mark in Nebraska, with some mid 30s possible in north central Kansas. Along the edge of the low cloud cover, the potential exists for fog development along our western zones. This trof will arrive here Fri or Fri night. Return flow will develop Sun night into Mon as the high heads E into the Midwest. the next arctic cold front will be surging S. Newly formed low pres is then fcst to eject into the Srn Plains Fri with an inverted trof extending N into KS/Neb. As this low heads NE toward the OH valley. The highest confidence portion of the fcst is more bitter cold.
114 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 High pressure will prevail until the development and passage of a coastal trough by Sunday night.
This is close to the highest thickness for any seeder-feeder mechanism so it's likely any precipitation that does fall will be in the form of drizzle, or freezing drizzle where temperatures are cold enough to support freezing on contact with the ground.
The higher accumulations still look to occur across southern Minnesota, where 5 to 8 inch totals are expected over the 36 hour period.
For this reason, wind chill readings have been warmer, so will cancel the wind chill advisory for the Red River Valley.
Have bumped some of tonight's low temperatures up a few degrees along the immediate coast per latest guidance, particularly along the Pensacola and Choctawhatchee bay systems where temperatures will still drop to or just below freezing, but generally stay out of the upper 20's. With the winds becoming light, combined with clear skies and good radiational cooling expect temps to fall to near to below freezing across nearly the entire forecast area tonight. With the majority of the coastal zones seeing temps below freezing temps for the first time this season, a freeze warning continues to be in effect for tonight for the these zones. Elsewhere below freezing temps are expected interior zones, but this is not the first such occurrence this season further inland.
ahead of a sfc warm front hanging just to the south. A ripple in the upper levels progged to move across the frontogenetic/thermodynamic region this evening/overnight before the main trough swings through Sunday evening - pushing everything east. Model trends still favoring amounts from 5 to 8 inches, but the higher amounts aren't necessarily south of I- 90 anymore.
At the surface, as high pressure centered over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys this morning slides further east, low level winds veer to the northeast.
Between the exiting wave to the northeast and the incoming wave to the northwest southerly flow in the low to mid levels will gradually increase through the night into Saturday morning.
322 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 An area of showers continues over the Atlantic waters, far south of the lower Keys. The eastern extent of this high will continue to push eastward through the weekend, keeping a tight pressure gradient across the state today and across south Florida and the Keys through Sunday.
Today a trough of low pressure lies along the front range. Warm air advection will develop and spread warmer temperatures into western Nebraska with some temperatures approaching 40 over the southeast Nebraska Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. The low moves into western Kansas through the evening with cold air at the surface undercutting the warmer air aloft. Timing of cooler air will make or break the forecast. Dry weather returns on Sunday as high pressure builds back into the region.
Some morning low clouds and freezing fog will be possible across far western Kansas. To the northeast, linger clouds and cooler 850-hPa temperatures will result in cooler highs. Cooler temperatures overall are expected Sunday in association with a fropa.
Developing coastal trough may result in isolated showers over the southern Gulf Waters, and this is handled by the low pops in the current forecast. the deterministic NAM/GFS predict a coastal trough to develop Tonight/Saturday. Low temps early Saturday in the upper 30s/mid 40s with highs Saturday in the lower 50s/near 60 (warmer max temps than Today owing to airmass modification yet still somewhat cooler given cloud cover.
Otherwise, much warmer day expected on Sunday with temps approaching 70 degrees along the Red River south into north Texas with 50s and 60s elsewhere.
Not sure if this will be enough for freezing fog, but we have a strong inversion aloft and may see some low clouds.
Expect the ceilings to degrade back down to near IFR levels later tonight into early Saturday as the nocturnal low level inversion strenthens and some weak surface troffing develops near the coastline. /issued 302 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Moderate to breezy north to northwest winds and cloudy skies prevail across Deep South Texas this afternoon as relatively shallow, cool high pressure prevails over the area. Low temperatures tonight will remain generally in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper 30s possible across the ranchlands, under cloudy skies. The development of a coastal trough Saturday into Saturday night and increasing moisture should support isolated to scattered showers near the coast.
/ISSUED 945 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ The main question tonight will be who will fall to freezing or slightly below and for how long. Thinning clouds across the north would allow for a couple of near sunrise hours of subfreezing T readings.
359 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 Downsloping flow, southern flow at the surface, and sunny skies will help the Panhandles to see temperatures increase to around 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. As high pressure moves in for the beginning of the work week, temps will hover around climatological norms. The upper level pattern looks to begin changing by the end of the work week as a low pressure system comes on shore and digs into the western Conus.
1144 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight through Saturday.
1030 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Intriguing short-term temperature forecast over the next 8 hours with freezing and near freezing temperatures expected across the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and into the I-35 corridor. However, a few drops to near or below freezing before clouds increase could occur. If a further delay in cloud development is noted in concert with dropping temperatures near to below freezing for counties that have not verified with a Freeze Warning yet, then a quick issuance of a Freeze Warning may occur.