Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
222 PM MST SAT DEC 19 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER EXPOSED TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
324 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AGAIN. ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS CREATING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT DOES BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
1120 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
1119 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH/BACK UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY BY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WORKS IN UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. BRIEF/WK SFC RIDGING FOLLOWS TUE AHD OF NXT MORE POTENT AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AGAIN RICH LL MSTR FOR DEC XPCD TO CARRY NWD AHD OF ATTENDANT EWD SWEEPING FNTL ZONE W/RAIN LIKELY AGAIN WED FOLLOWED BY REPEAT WK SFC RIDGING THU-FRI BEFORE PATTN RELOADS YET AGAIN LT PD. MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS GENERALLY 12-16 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING LATE AFTN/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH BY MIDNIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ITS RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS AND SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN INITIALLY. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INTRUSION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUD DECK AND VFR AT CRP SUNDAY MORNING.
353 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD/NE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WARMER/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS FAIRLY COOL GROUND HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN FORECAST SUNDAY. AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR BRIEF FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THOUGH EXPECT ANY WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO BE QUICK WITH MINIMAL.
323 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH TO THE EAST ANALYZED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ONE TO THE WEST. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. FORECAST FOLLOWS THE COOLER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. TOMORROW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
They should then level off or even rise a degree or two as the high pressure shifts eastward and southerly winds commence. Temperatures should climb into the lower to mid 50s through the day.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WARMER TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY. SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1227 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE SHIFTED EAST THIS EARLY MORNING AND MILD SW GRADIENT WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FIRST TROUGH IN A SERIES COMES ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO VALLEYS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROF. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES LATER TODAY. WITH MAXS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 1022 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
Wet pattern remains in place through the end of the week with building high pressure bringing a couple days of drying at the end of the week. Upper trough axis is now just off the coast with a secondary band of precipitation expected to bring showers to the forecast area through the day. A flat upper ridge is forecast to slide across the CWA curing the night and most areas should see a brief drying out period. This looks to be a slightly cooler system but also a bit weaker than the current system so snowfall amounts over the higher elevations are not expected to be as large as they were today.
WITH PRECIP ENDING BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING LATER IN THE NIGHT. COOLER.
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AIR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES BEING MODIFIED BY WARMER ATLANTIC. AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY THE MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOCAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
The southerly winds will continue to bring moisture into the region through the day Sunday as the upper trough and a cold front begins to move across the plains towards the region.
257 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A CLEAR SKY AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER- RIDGE SHIFTS IN. HIGHS WILL RUN ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER.
1239 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 HYDRO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
WITH ELEVATED THUNDER NOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED RUMBLES UNTIL BETTER DYNAMICS HAVE SHIFTED EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT.
Later tonight a cold front will be drawn southward moving across much of the CWA by morning knocking back temperatures.
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. AND TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MID LEVEL LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WESTERN RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.
135 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPANDED AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH HELENA AND BOZEMAN. UPDATED 1140Z HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY DRY.
413 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SFC OBS SHOW CEILINGS STILL GENERALLY HOLDING ON IN THE LOWER MVFR RANGE EXCEPT AT KAEX WHERE THEY HAVE CLIMBED TO VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THANKS TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN TX. THEN RETURN AS PROB30 FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. /ISSUED 513 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/ ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH BELOW-ZERO TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND READINGS NEAR FREEZING AT THE COAST. WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG CURRENTLY IN ROSEBURG. EXCEPT FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY WHERE A STRATUS DECK IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER.
THIS PERIOD OF DRY WX UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND ALLOWS FOR MORE EFFICIENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING. DIGGING TROF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK AGAINST THE LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROF ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE. FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC AS A SPLIT FLOW TROUGH TACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
250 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 STILL LOOKING AT A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS GEORGIA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING NOTICEABLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE SHOWS A POCKET OF HIGHER LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL LATE DAY AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.
247 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST IF TEMPS ARE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW MORNING.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. OR FREEZING DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS.
PREFER THE HI-RES MODELS WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
326 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 HRRR is close to current warm front position, if a bit too far north.
245 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
242 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WARM FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW EXISTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. NO REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. MID-LEVEL FGEN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. SO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE.
SATELLITE SHOWING COLD AND STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE. MID LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT IT GOT TODAY. SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
Bulk shear values around 50-60 kts and impressive low-level helicity will remain favorable for rotating thunderstorms (and possible tornadoes) the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening before the cold front pushes through the most of the forecast area. Exit-region jet dynamics ahead of the approaching upper low along with the anomalously high PWs will remain favorable for several periods of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms through the weekend.
18Z TAFS NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER.
Light to moderate convective snow showers that are lingering over west-central Montana are expected to diminish in the morning hours as high pressure builds into the area today. The overall convective snow shower activity is expected to diminish in the next few hours as high pressure builds into the area today. In addition to the snow showers, low stratus and patches of freezing fog have formed in some of the valleys this morning, including Camas Prairie in Idaho and the Mission/Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. High pressure this weekend will be a favorable "environment" for valley inversions and strong cold pools to strengthen. This may allow more areas of freezing valley fog to develop overnight into Sunday morning that could have impact to travel and aviation.
WHICH WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. THIS IS OCCURRING AS MOISTURE CONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWEST OK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE SFC WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH APPROACHING 40KTS BY AFTN. SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
BUT THE USUAL CONCERNS OF DRY SLOTTING BETWEEN THE WARM CONVEYOR /AHEAD OF THE LOW/ AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP /N-NW OF THE LOW/ REMAIN VALID. FREEZING LINE HAD ALREADY CREPT INTO NORTHERN PARMER COUNTY AS OF 11 AM. CDS AND NEAR PVW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ISSUED AWW FOR LBB AS 30+ KNOTS SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY BY MID-AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT. SO SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW OVERCAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME ELY AND EVENTUALLY NELY THIS EVENING. AND NOW HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NEGAUNEE TO THE NRN HURON MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO FAR SCENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. THIS CLOSED LOW HEADS DUE NORTH INTO NE WI 12Z TUE AND TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WED. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS 12Z WED WHICH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH TROUGHING REMAINING INTO 12Z SAT WITH COLDER AIR AT 850 MB FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
257 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AND SLIDE EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE WEST COAST. DIGGING TROF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK AGAINST THE LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROF AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE.
Stable conditions tonight will allow for stratus and/or freezing fog to develop in many valley locations of western Montana and north central Idaho. Once any patchy freezing fog or stratus dissipates late in the morning, cloud cover will continue to increase and gradually lower through the day Sunday with some very light snow possible, mainly for northwest Montana by afternoon.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO IT/S QUITE POSSIBLE AREAS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING WILL SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN THOUGH IT IS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE VFR WITH RIDGE ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF BAKER COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING.
353 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 WELL TODAY TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR LATE DECEMBER AS HIGHS AREA WIDE REACHED THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
BUT THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW. BUT WITH SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE WIND IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SHELTERED COLD SPOTS LIKE KREMMLING. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPANDED AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH HELENA AND BOZEMAN. UPDATED 1750Z HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY DRY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT PUSHING OUT ALL OF THE SNOW BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO GREAT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE BITTER WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR -20 F SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL THREE OF THE MAIN MODELS HAVE THE SAME TRACK FOR THE UPPER LOW.
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 AVIATION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
SOME MAINLY DRIFTING SNOW INTO FAR WESTERN MN INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO NERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND SOUTHERN KY. SCATTERED -SHRA ARE PSBL AMONGST THE LOW CLOUDS THRU 18Z/28 WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH YEAR'S END. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR/GULF COAST.
458 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH HAS SPLIT WITH THE NRN PORTION HAVING SHEARED OFF AND MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS THAT SHOWS CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AT 700 MB. THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY BE THE WARMEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS APPROACHING FREEZING.
611 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED THEN FALL TO AROUND 20 BY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.
CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MIGRATES TO OUR EAST AND GETS REPLACED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY WHERE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TAX LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
626 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AGAIN. ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS CREATING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT DOES BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
919 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
613 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
EXPECTING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS A RESULT. CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MIGRATES TO OUR EAST AND GETS REPLACED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.
944 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY.
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WINDS INCREASE, TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE COAST/COASTAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S.
The low clouds will encourage better mixing in the low levels, increasing winds and causing gusts to develop at most sites tonight as well. /issued 344 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) A short wave ridge over the area this afternoon will transition to southwest flow aloft tonight and Sunday as an upper level trough moves inland from the California coast. With the increase in low level moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer overnight with lows mainly in the upper 40s.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
700 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
906 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
910 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO OR NEAR FREEZING. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS BEING IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FURTHEST FROM THE HIGH CENTER. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
FROST ADVISORY FOR INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SEEING MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.