Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1015 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure centered over New England will drift south over the next several days.
1022 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Weak upper level trough will continue to weaken and drift south of the area tonight.
Have adjusted snow amounts up a bit over the higher terrain tonight as 700mb temperatures were progged below zero for the whole period with snow levels dropping to around 7 thousand feet late tonight. Cooler than forecast temps over the Park has led to increased drainage winds around Livingston with winds briefly touch 40 mph this afternoon. Models indicate enough capping above the ridgetop to force some of the 700 mb winds down through the gap especially during the early morning hours when drainage is going to be optimal.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, the Florida Keys will remain along the southern periphery of a large area of high pressure over the northwest Atlantic Ocean overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located near the southeast coast of the United States tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will progress eastward across the southeastern United States overnight.
808 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 With high pressure centered east of the area, southerly winds will bring warmer air into the region over the next few days.
Early afternoon IR imagery together with RAP13 and surface obs showed a cold front across the region, which was most noticeable by the wind direction and dewpoint. The low 60 dewpoints ahead of the boundary together together with surface temps near 70s was able to produce a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across southeast MN. On Sunday high pressure will move across the region with southerly return flow developing from west to east across the region. This will lift today's boundary back to the north as a warm front which will set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms, but those should hold off until after 00Z so continued with a dry forecast through Sunday evening.
632 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Summer-like weather was beginning its return to the Ozarks this afternoon as an upper level ridge was building into the region. Otherwise, a mild and breezy night is on tap with low temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the far eastern Ozarks to the upper 60s along the I-49 corridor. Temperatures will be even warmer as 850 mb temperatures warm into the 16-20 Celsius range. High temperatures will therefore range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle and even upper 80s along the I-49 corridor.
515 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Water vapor imagery shows the strong upper low slamming into the PacNW today.
Along with clouds, model indications from the higher resolution shorter term, as well as the longer term GFS/ECMWF all hint at isolated, light shower chances tonight. After lows "only" in the lower 60s tonight, high temperatures Sunday afternoon should warm into the lower 80s.
731 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight before a weak disturbance returns shower chances for later Sunday and Sunday night. Much warmer temperatures are expected to start the week. This will thin out coverage and allow for another relatively strong radiational cooling night, but not quite as strong as previous nights with a little more moisture in the air and slightly more turbulence in the lower levels.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 80 59 85 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 79 57 84 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 80 57 83 / 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0.
1040 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016 Quiet wx pattern to cont thru the overnight hrs as the region remains under the influence of high pressure to the northeast. Feature moved across the immediate area overnight and now being followed by modest ridging building into to the south plains and lower Mississippi valley. Dry weather pattern expected to continue with this high pressure remaining in control. Global models depicting a strong frontal passage later in the week and MOS now depicting similarly cooler temperatures with the frontal passage.
A cold front will begin moving through the area after 03/18z. /issued 418 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ This afternoon the upper trough of low pressure axis has shifted into South Central Arkansas and North Central Louisiana and on the surface the associated low pressure system was over Southeast Arkansas with a cold front trailing southwest into North Louisiana to near a Ruston to Winnfield and Florien Louisiana line. Another strong cold front will return to the forecast area during the day Tuesday but will come through dry and followed by high pressure that will provide cold temperatures for the mid to late week period.
418 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 This afternoon the upper trough of low pressure axis has shifted into South Central Arkansas and North Central Louisiana and on the surface the associated low pressure system was over Southeast Arkansas with a cold front trailing southwest into North Louisiana to near a Ruston to Winnfield and Florien Louisiana line. Another strong cold front will return to the forecast area during the day Tuesday but will come through dry and followed by high pressure that will provide cold temperatures for the mid to late week period.
Over the next several hours, the warm front should seemingly reset further south thanks to all of the convective contamination.
Could see better coverage north along the Cheyenne Ridge in better proximity to the jet aloft.
There may be occasional light mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower elevation communities will remain primarily dry. In all likelihood, morning lows will not fall much more than 5F-10F from the 02Z readings (and only slightly cooler than last night).
/issued 333 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a compact, nearly closed upper low over west central AR, lifting northeast. Surface analysis showed a 1005mb low pressure over west central AR. Looking beyond tonight, an Arctic cold frontal passage appears on track Tuesday evening.
643 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will move northeast tonight and Tuesday causing rain in our area. Very cold air will overspread our area on the backside of this low Tuesday night, and persist through the remainder of the week. Ifr conditions should cont across nrn IN much of this period as a low pressure system moves ne from the lwr MS valley through the OH valley. movg east of the area Tue, but sct shra still psbl through the day as an upr trof moves east into the upr MS valley. Light easterly sfc winds will grdly back to nwly as the low passes by to the se, with tightening gradient modestly increasing wind speeds late in the period.
/Issued 255 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Showers moving out of western Arkansas right on schedule, with the center of the upper low pushing into central Arkansas. Overnight lows tonight will be above normal, with the brunt of the cooler and drier air likely to begin to move in during the day tomorrow.
638 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 The light wintry mix is expected to continue this evening and early tonight until a cold front comes through and wisps the precipitation east of the area. Farther south, in the local area, the precipitation is due to warm advection in the lower layer of the atmosphere. This warming (along with a dry layer) is leading to freezing rain/drizzle (even some sleet) across portions of southern MN and western WI. The main impacts locally will be with the freezing drizzle/rain and fine glaze of ice over the next several hours. The longer term trends continue to indicate a cold northwest flow pattern with a series of moisture starved cold fronts/short waves moving through the flow.
1005 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday.
The low clouds will continue over the area with areas of fog possible through the night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 67 44 50 / 90 40 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 67 45 48 / 90 60 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 54 66 43 47 / 90 50 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 64 42 47 / 90 70 50 20.
711 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Low pressure will bring widespread rain showers tonight into Tuesday.
/issued 209 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Zonal mid level flow this PM is serving to keep a broad low level thermal ridge across the W TX/E NM plains today with high temps running about 5 degrees above normal. By Tue PM the MSLP ridge axis will be just east of the Caprock favoring the cold air to arrive via the backdoor in the ne CWFA. Cold air will then push back harder to the sw Thur AM as the ridge axis builds thru the W TX plains (farther west than Wed), much colder in most all areas. Cold air shoves s again on Sat followed by much warmer wx Sun/Mon.
However, snow levels will be on the rise during the event as a warm front lifts north across the area. The associated warm front will lift N thru the area on Tuesday with rising snow levels. Precipitation chances will decrease late in the work week as weak ridging takes hold over CA, albeit briefly. Leaned slightly toward the NAM in bringing the low farther northward.
Gusty winds and some light snow showers continue across parts of the area, the weather is beginning to turn towards a quieter pattern as model consensus points towards a broad ridge of high pressure building off the Mexico Coast. Some showers may make their way down to the the high country by the end of the work week as the ridge breaks down, but otherwise zonal flow aloft will limit any significant chances of precipitation through the next few days. Warmer temperatures are also expected to move into the region with highs near or above seasonal averages by the middle of the week.
1001 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Widespread rain is expected through the overnight as a warm front advances slowly north through the area.
Surface winds will turn from westerly to northerly early Tuesday as a cold front moves through. temps have warmed into the upper 50s to lower 60s on the Caprock with even warmer temps in the Rolling Plains. See no reason to abandon our recent strategy of favoring the ECMWF's phasing of troughing from southern Canada with energy currently atop the Oregon coast.
The main story this evening will be an arctic cold front currently located over Central KS dropping south, leading to falling temps and gusty north winds overnight into Tue. Say goodbye to the warm temps for a few days, as the arctic high pressure drops temps initially into the lower 30s to upper 20s on Tue with max temps struggling to reach the lower 20s by Wed/Thu. At best, think light amounts (less than an inch) or a dusting of snow accumulation, given the high snow to liquid ratios expected (ie, fluffy snow). Ketcham Cold front will be in the vicinity of KICT at beginning of forecast and should reach KCNU about 05-06 UTC.
Canaveral profiler confirms that winds in the low levels will support gusty conditions over the warmer Gulf Stream.
601 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday.
659 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday.
403 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 The light wintry mix is expected to continue this evening and early tonight until a cold front comes through and wisps the precipitation east of the area. Farther south, in the local area, the precipitation is due to warm advection in the lower layer of the atmosphere. This warming (along with a dry layer) is leading to freezing rain/drizzle (even some sleet) across portions of southern MN and western WI. The main impacts locally will be with the freezing drizzle/rain and fine glaze of ice over the next several hours. The longer term trends continue to indicate a cold northwest flow pattern with a series of moisture starved cold fronts/short waves moving through the flow.
941 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Have seen little if any reports of falling precipitation along/east of I-29, and do not expect any appreciable freezing drizzle to redevelop in the next few hours, so will cancel remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory. Big story behind the wave and associated cold front will be the increase in west-northwest winds tonight through Tuesday.
448 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Updated forecast to include a mention of patchy freezing drizzle, primarily east of Highway 25. Upstream observations have indicated some very light freezing drizzle across western Nebraska and think there could be a brief period of this along and immediately behind the passing cold front. A Special Weather Statement may be needed if freezing drizzle is observed and reports of icing are received. Cold front will move through the area this evening with winds becoming northwest and increasing a bit. Might see some lingering fog and freezing fog near the front, but should be more patchy in nature with increased winds and associated mixing. Wind chills bottom out at around 10 below, slightly warmer than advisory criteria.
Otherwise, could see some patchy fog overnight, mainly near and just ahead of the cold front. However, IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are expected to develop behind a cold front late this evening/overnight. /issued 325 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing an end to the warm weather for a while.
especially along and north of the Missouri River as the atmosphere remains completely saturated north of a weak trough axis that's currently draped over the region. after which time conditions should begin improving as northwest winds return following the passage of a cold front now seen off to our northwest. However, due to a warm and moist airmass left behind and lacking any mid level cloud cover am expecting areas of drizzle/patchy light rain and fog to form this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
520 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Have seen little if any reports of falling precipitation along/east of I-29, and do not expect any appreciable freezing drizzle to redevelop in the next few hours, so will cancel remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory. Big story behind the wave and associated cold front will be the increase in west-northwest winds tonight through Tuesday.
630 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Widespread rain is expected through tonight as a warm front advances slowly north through the area.
However, IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are expected to develop behind a cold front late this evening/overnight. /issued 325 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing an end to the warm weather for a while.
Currently I think the low ceilings are our main threat to aviation tonight through tomorrow morning with some areas possibly in the IFR range. SW winds will slowly shift to the northwest during the overnight period ahead of our next cold front. Going into the day on Tuesday, a cold front will work south across the Panhandles. The cold air will be quite shallow below 700 hPa in-conjunction with 700-250 hPa zonal mean flow, there is no synoptic driving force in the wake of the cold front for good CAA.
/issued 346 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Low pressure over southwest Arkansas early this afternoon with a cold front to near Lake Charles.
446 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 H500 hand analysis is showing an anomalously strong blocking ridge over the Eastern Pacific extending Eastern Alaska and the Yukon.
354 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 H500 hand analysis is showing an anomalously strong blocking ridge over the Eastern Pacific extending Eastern Alaska and the Yukon.
The winds will be light tonight and become north to northwest at around 10 knots Tuesday as a cold front moves south across the area. /issued 351 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The main weather item in the short term will be the cold front that arrives on Tuesday. For tonight, clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area, with light winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle 40s. The cold front will enter the Big Country Tuesday morning and will move south across the area during the day, clearing far southern counties around sunset.
Generally pleasant, sunny weather will prevail through most of the short-term, due to flat ridging/zonal flow aloft. Tuesday will be a "Chamber of Commerce" day with clear skies, a warm afternoon, and light winds the weak ridge settles overhead. For the end of the short-term period, a modestly strong cold front will be approaching the CWA from the north.
Light snow showers will continue through Tuesday morning with a closed low just to our west this evening. The low will continue westward overnight keeping moisture southwesterly flow over the region and continuing the threat for showers.
1031 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Low pressure will bring widespread rain showers tonight into Tuesday.
Low amplitude middle and upper ridging does remain to the immediate east of the trough axis, poking northward across the Eastern United States from the Central American coast regions. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels,(Surface to 700 mb), latest IR imagery overlaid with available marine and land surface observations and well as analysis as of 800 pm, detail the center of a mid winter anticyclone with arctic air positioned over the Bay of Fundy. Well to the southwest of that, low pressure is developing near Vicksburg MS which trails a warm front eastward to the South Carolina low country, and a cold front extending southward from the low reaching just north of Tampico MX. Temperatures across the islands remain unseasonably warm and humid, in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
PWATs east of the Blue Ridge are in excess of 1. Heaviest rain is forecast to be aligned with the I-95 corridor, however our forecast area will be subject to a daily threat of diurnally driven deep convection aligned with the mountain ridges. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer than normal with 80s for highs.
The Gfs/Nam/Ecmwf were doing the best on the low level thermal field. Again guidance a little warmer and considering that there looks to be less clouds, raised maxes a little again.
Warm air advection continues tomorrow, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures than was originally in the forecast.
214 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in on Monday, with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week.
/issued 1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/ Weak high pressure will be building down over the Gulf of Mexico and ridge across the area today with an upper trough in place across the state. Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the highest chances inland of I-75 and south of I-4. Easterly flow will become W/NW through the afternoon as weak high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the sea breeze sets up over land. Ridging will then be in place across the waters through the week and keep winds and seas light.
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the Carolina coast line through the first part of this week while an upper level trough will track north of the area through Monday.
This trough will move east during the day and should help to focus some strong convection along it. Currently appears this trough will be just east of the CWA Monday afternoon with CAPES in excess of 1000 J/kg progged to remain east of the Panhandle Monday so severe storm threat in out area looks to be low with shear and instability relatively modest. Still should see some showers and a few storms Monday into Monday night as the upper low drifts slowly east and a lobe of vorticity shifts across the northern high plains.
157 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 An upper level low over Southern California could bring a couple of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, to the mountains and upper deserts through early this evening.
convection off the higher terrain of Mexico could approach the border. Concur with deterministic output that the CWA/MSA will remain under a quasi-stationary upper level ridge.
Forcing is rather weak, but with surface-based CAPE values from 2500-3000 J/kg, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along and ahead of the trough through the remainder of the afternoon.
303 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Split troughy pattern over the Rockies will progress eastward over the next couple of days. The southern closed low trekking across SoCal today will allow for some added instability late Monday afternoon and through the night with pieces of energy pushing in to the northern Four Corners ahead of the unstable air mass.
Weak high pressure at the surface will build across the region behind the departing cold front Monday night.
West winds will gust as high as 25 to 35 mph this afternoon and evening with the highest gusts around Wenatchee and Chelan.
Expect additional showers to be possible again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler high temperatures. The convection has been focused in northern New York west of Lake Champlain as most of Vermont has been fighting the marine airmass associated with the back door cold front from this morning. Expected max temps tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts to push through the North Country.
Lows will be in the lower 60s. A few clouds are expected tomorrow with lighter winds and highs in the low to mid 80s. in the low to mid 80s.
A giant area of hot high pressure exists over the Four Corners and reads out over the Nevada and Wyoming. A large trough runs from Washington and northern Idaho north into British Columbia. These showers will precede the synoptic trough to the west latching onto the lee surface mountain trough and dragging it along with more showers and thunderstorms Monday morning when the better chances for increased QPF arrive.
320 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 The Northland finds itself in the wake of a passing area of low pressure, which will continue lifting through Ontario. The cloud cover will continue to clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. Light westerly flow will become southerly in the afternoon as low pressure develops in the Great Plains. Leaned on the warmer model guidance given the sunshine and relatively dry humidity, such as the bias- corrected Canadian regional and SREF models.
258 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens. Temperatures are running a little warmer across most of the region compared to 24 hours ago, but a Delta trickle is resulting in slightly cooler readings at Fairfield and Vacaville. The main weather story for the region the next several days will be hot weather as the ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts over NorCal.
Skies will clear tonight as a strong upper level ridge builds offshore.
348 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 An upper lvl trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. as upper ridge continues to slide east of the region as an upper trof swings towards the western GLAKS from the upper midwest. Bonnie (downgraded at 8:00 AM this morning) and aforementioned 5H ridge. the first associated with the upper trof approaching from the eastern GLAKS and OH Valley and the 2nd over the southeast. Successive HRRR runs have shown a distinct back edge to the precip reaching towards the Lower Susq River Valley by 09z.
Lows tonight look to drop into the low 60s once again. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then remain possible into Monday night as that short wave trough/MCV slowly tracks northeast across the area.
The GFS and SREF also produce some light precip with this boundary/trough.
A Pacific trough ejects eastward from the northern Rockies into the western Dakotas Monday night, lifting a warm front across the forecast area.
Lingering low pressure trof will extend from the Carolinas across NE FL/SE GA and atmosphere will moisten slightly to help trigger widely scattered showers and storms over inland areas with the best chances south of a line from St Augustine to Gainesville as the Gulf Coast and Atlc Coast sea breeze fronts meet over the middle St Johns River Basin.