Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
202 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 The subtropical ridge located over AZ today is far enough w for nw steering flow to be in place across most of the CWFA. The primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis was located from sw of El Paso City- TX Panhandle, mid-level water vapor satellite loop does shows drier air moving se (steeper LRs). Subtropical ridge will reposition farther e into wrn NM Mon and mid-level theta-e ridge will move farther s-se, warranting mention isold TSRA as far e as PB. There a good chance clouds will hand around Mon and helping to keep the edge off of the high temps. There will be mid-level drying Tue-Wed as the ridge edges farther e into n-ne NM, increasing heights, thus warmer and drier (including mtns).
After Monday, forecast is mostly dry for the rest of the week with upper ridge affecting the area. Models show the center of the upper ridge shifting a little bit west later this week which could lead to less of an influence of the ridge and N/NW flow over at least parts of the fa.
The upper level pattern that has remained over the region through most of last week will hang around for one more day with ridging over the western CONUS and the Ozarks on the eastern edge of the ridge. The from will move rather slowly through to the east with showers and storms lingering through much of the day Monday and helping to keep highs in the lower to middle 80s for the most part.
Ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest and drier air was keeping cloud cover and convection somewhat sparse across the forecast area this afternoon. Temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Over the next 24 hours the upper ridge will strengthen and recenter over the Four Corners. Tomorrow plan on moisture trapped under the high pressure to recycle and bubble once again, with isolated convection developing over the higher terrain between 11 am and noon. Overnight low temps are forecast to drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s for the plains. Maximum temps tomorrow should climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.
721 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front inches toward the area.
708 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Weak convection should increase in coverage and intensity this late afternoon and evening along and ahead of a weak cold front. Looks like the timing of the mid-level trough axis and the associated cold front will be slower to clear the area compared to some previous numerical model runs and therefore have hung onto chances of precip into the evening. Numerical models have been quite consistent with keeping late tonight after midnight dry due to subsidence behind mid-level trough and associated cold front.
Model guidance warrants VCTS at various times for our terminals and perhaps to prevail longer than summer usual in the vicinity of the cold front.
427 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Current surface map shows trof moving through western South Dakota, ushering much drier air into northwest South Dakota. A few thunderstorms developing along the trof in north central South Dakota. CAMs show thunderstorms developing south-southwest along the trof. Flat upper level ridge will set up across the Rockies this week. Several impulses embedded in monsoon flow will ride across the ridge.
939 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A few showers and storms developed along the Lower Keys cloud line during the mid to late afternoon hours, and a convective cluster moved south from southern Miami-Dade County across Florida Bay and parts of the Upper Keys during the late afternoon and early evening, but all convective activity across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters dissipated before sunset. Surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean and northern Gulf of Mexico, bisected by the typical diurnal thermal trough over the Florida peninsula. Aloft, weak mid/upper level ridging prevails over South Florida and the Keys. There is a fair amount of dry air in the mid levels, reflecting the influence of the ridge over our area.
Fairly deep moisture and light onshore flow in the low levels will allow isolated to scattered convection near the coast from mid morning into early-mid afternoon and then transitioning toward the interior into the late afternoon and early evening hours Monday.
A cold front approaching from the northwest will be our next rain-producer.
Cold front and affiliated convection has pushed to the east of the area. At 18Z, the cold front continues to move through the state, currently stretching east of a line from Bismarck to Harvey approaching the James Valley. Mostly sunny skies behind the front with some additional clouds associated with upper low approaching northwest ND. Expect cooler and dry weather tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. As the upper level low and associated cold front move east of ND, expect dry and cooler weather on Monday with highs in the 70s. Global models are in good agreement with amplifying broad upper level ridge over central CONUS during the upcoming week. The cooler weather on Monday will give way to a warming trend as the ridge builds.
Should see highs on Mon a degree or two cooler than the last several behind the weak cold front. Any convection that develops Mon night should linger into Tue across eastern Nebraska into northeast KS as upper ridging continues to build over the southern Rockies into the central/southern High Plains.
637 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front inches toward the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 92 70 90 / 10 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 90 68 87 / 10 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 91 68 87 / 10 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 88 64 86 / 10 10 10 50.
607 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Cold front and affiliated convection has pushed to the east of the area. At 18Z, the cold front continues to move through the state, currently stretching east of a line from Bismarck to Harvey approaching the James Valley. Mostly sunny skies behind the front with some additional clouds associated with upper low approaching northwest ND. Expect cooler and dry weather tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. As the upper level low and associated cold front move east of ND, expect dry and cooler weather on Monday with highs in the 70s. Global models are in good agreement with amplifying broad upper level ridge over central CONUS during the upcoming week. The cooler weather on Monday will give way to a warming trend as the ridge builds.
A frontal boundary will remain stationary across north central FL through this evening, while high pressure anchored along the U. High pressure will gradually weaken as it settles southward late tonight and Monday, allowing for winds and seas to gradually subside.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s east to the lower 70s west.
1006 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front inches toward the area.
Ridge axis gradually shifts east over the area on Monday with southeasterly winds developing at the surface. A weak wave rounding the ridge is expected to generate showers and thunderstorms over western areas Monday afternoon and evening.
NW wind will pick up a bit across the area as the cold front progresses east. A line of showers/thunderstorms that developed across central North Dakota associated with forcing from a mid-level trough has caught up to the narrow axis of a favorable severe environment.
A cold front across western Kansas will move toward Oklahoma this evening and through many of the TAF sites Monday morning. After Monday, forecast is mostly dry for the rest of the week with upper ridge affecting the area. Models show the center of the upper ridge shifting a little bit west later this week which could lead to less of an influence of the ridge and N/NW flow over at least parts of the fa.
Cumulus build-ups and isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of SE Oregon/far SW Idaho.
/issued 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019/ The subtropical ridge located over AZ today is far enough w for nw steering flow to be in place across most of the CWFA. The primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis was located from sw of El Paso City- TX Panhandle, mid-level water vapor satellite loop does shows drier air moving se (steeper LRs). Subtropical ridge will reposition farther e into wrn NM Mon and mid-level theta-e ridge will move farther s-se, warranting mention isold TSRA as far e as PB. There a good chance clouds will hand around Mon and helping to keep the edge off of the high temps. There will be mid-level drying Tue-Wed as the ridge edges farther e into n-ne NM, increasing heights, thus warmer and drier (including mtns).
However, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Tonight across the area as a cold front approaches from the north and west.
Off- and-on rain chances will exist through the remainder of the week as short wave troughs traverse the western ridge. Shwrs and storms beginning to develop over the region this evening, out ahead of a cold front that is expected to clear the area shortly after sunrise.
Last N-S line of convection over/around the Lake Wales Ridge this evening to slowly wane.
1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Weak convection should increase in coverage and intensity this late afternoon and evening along and ahead of a weak cold front. Looks like the timing of the mid-level trough axis and the associated cold front will be slower to clear the area compared to some previous numerical model runs and therefore have hung onto chances of precip into the evening. Numerical models have been quite consistent with keeping late tonight after midnight dry due to subsidence behind mid-level trough and associated cold front. Monday looks dry and relatively cool, but Tuesday could actually be cooler as we will have potentially more sky cover with another wave going by, along with a shot at more precip late Monday night into Tuesday.
232 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A cold front is in the process of moving across eastern Kansas. Instability in advance of the cold front was currently modest with around 1000 j/kg, with the NAM indicating increasing instability into this afternoon to around 2200 j/kg. High pressure will again move into the area Tuesday with dry weather expected. The region will remain on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS through the remainder of the week however.
120 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
1249 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front inches toward the area.
Will likely see thunderstorms develop across the High Plains this afternoon, progressing into western Kansas this evening, although expecting this activity will likely remain west/northwest of the forecast area. Temperatures Tuesday will be 1-2 degrees warmer than today. Kleinsasser The forecast area will remain under the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer this week, as upper high pressure remains anchored over the central/southern Rockies. Thinking the highest chances will be across northern and eastern Kansas. Some erratic winds can be expected with gusts to around 30 knots at times in and near storms but a light northerly prevailing wind is anticipated as we move through the early morning hours in the wake of the trough.
338 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A nearly stationary and sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure centered in the southern Rockies will be the main weather feature the next seven days.
By tonight high pressure at the surface will build south and drop winds and keep dry air in place.
A cold front will approach from the northwest tomorrow.
208 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 At 2 AM, skies were rapidly transitioning to clear over the region as the trough that brought rain/storms yesterday continued to move eastward. Isolated areas of haze and fog were occurring along and south of Interstate 80, but this should mix out over the next couple hours as a secondary cold front continues to surge southward. Afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 80s.
245 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
The upper trough pushing this system through is weak and is expected to remain relatively stationary, so eastward progression of precip will be slow and still ongoing throughout the day on Tuesday with the best chance of precip for most of the area during the daylight hours on Tuesday.
Should see highs on Mon a degree or two cooler than the last several behind the weak cold front. Any convection that develops Mon night should linger into Tue across eastern Nebraska into northeast KS as upper ridging continues to build over the southern Rockies into the central/southern High Plains. Some erratic winds can be expected with gusts to around 30 knots at times in and near storms but a light northerly prevailing wind is anticipated as we move through the early morning hours in the wake of the trough.
Southern Montana will be just on the periphery of the Great Basin ridge over the next several days. In the lower levels a persisted surface trof will reside over the area. This feature will allow plains moisture to work into central and eastern zones on southeast winds and a nightly low level jet, while fending off gustier westerly winds that would dry out the low levels enough to prevent mention of diurnal convection. The low level moisture will also help moderate temperatures with 80s today and 90s on Tuesday. Strong high pressure remains anchored in the vicinity of the four-corners region with energy moving through the northern periphery of the ridge, across the forecast area.
Temperatures range from the lower 70s inland to the lower 80s on the coast. Today should be another active weather day, with showers and thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon, thanks to an upper level low or trough to our east.
Once this initial activity dissipates around sunset, we can expect a second round of precipitation to move in from the west overnight as a cold front approaches. Highs in the low to mid 80s are expected on Tuesday as the clouds and precip spread across the area. Tonights lows will bottom out in the low to mid 60s for most locations. An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate near the Desert Southwest region. Troughing will reside generally east of the Mississippi River, with this feature gradual weakening towards the weekend. The best overall rain chances across eastern Kentucky will occur Tuesday night, as a cold front crosses the area. Temperatures will average near normal for this time of the year, with highs generally in the mid 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Upper level forcing with a trof from the Upper Midwest to southern Plains will approach and should be accompanied by convection approaching our western CWFA (SEMO/SW IL) toward 12z. A surface cold front at 00z Tue will be from near KORD-KSTL-KSGF, with broad scale mid level forcing, moisture and instability continuing to result in convection. The chance of convection will continue Monday night as the surface cold front pushes southeast across the area, driven by another mid level wave that by 12z Tuesday will extend over the Great Lakes to mid Mississippi Valley region.
Once the front pulls through by the early afternoon we expect some drier and cooler conditions to follow though winds may remain a bit breezy through the afternoon.
319 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Band of showers was moving across the dvn cwa ahead of a cold front. This will then be followed by clearing skies and less humid conditions as subsidence spreads into the area from high pressure to our northwest. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight: Pleasant night ahead as high pressure builds into the cwa providing clear and cooler weather with light northwest winds.
NW wind will pick up a bit across the area as the cold front progresses east. A line of showers/thunderstorms that developed across central North Dakota associated with forcing from a mid-level trough has caught up to the narrow axis of a favorable severe environment. High pressure builds into the region tonight, and affects the region into Tuesday morning. Cooler temperatures compared to recent days. Large scale mid level ridge axis amplifies over the Northern Plains Tuesday with most significant height rises at 500 MB during the later part of the week.
A cold front and a weak upper level trough will move toward the region. The airmass will destabilize as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s across the Delta and SBCAPES climb to about 2000 j/kg. As the weak upper trough progresses across the Mid-South and the surface cold front pushes into the Mid-South expect showers and thunderstorms to continue spreading east across the Mid-South tonight. The cold front will be located from Paris TN to Little Rock by Tuesday morning and will continue to ooze southeast during the day.
High pressure will be building southeast into Tuesday. The pressure gradient will relax tonight as the ridge axis moves in. Lows tonight will be cool as the high pushes in.
459 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A slow-moving cold front will push through Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, then stall out along the Mid Atlantic coastline the second half of the week. Upper ridge building over the state will bring generally dry and very warm conditions today with only isolated, diurnally- driven, pulse type thunderstorms. Ensemble mean 850mb temps of 17C-18C should translate to highs from the low to mid 80s over the highest terrain, to the low 90s in the Susq Valley. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region Tuesday, accompanied by a likelihood of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
1031 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Current surface map shows trof moving through western South Dakota, ushering much drier air into northwest South Dakota. A few thunderstorms developing along the trof in north central South Dakota. CAMs show thunderstorms developing south-southwest along the trof. Flat upper level ridge will set up across the Rockies this week. Several impulses embedded in monsoon flow will ride across the ridge.
Upper ridge over the southwestern states and Four Corners region will allow for a more northerly to north northwesterly upper flow today. The upper high over the southern Rockies will build eastward near the Panhandles tonight.
133 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging can be expected in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Meanwhile, mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
A persistent mid level high pressure system centered over the southwestern US, will keep conditions hot and humid and most locations rain free.
438 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A cold front will approach today and move through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once this system moves through, slightly cooler and drier conditions will be in place for the middle of the week. A cold front will begin to work into the region on Tuesday. With cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 80s.
Will be watching an upper level low pressure system drop down in the Gulf of Alaska just off of the BC coastline. The flow pattern will be fairly zonal across the Inland Northwest as the low digs down. Introduced a slight chance of thunderstorms south of Lookout Pass and east of Clarkia in the higher terrain there.
150 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
Later this evening, a secondary boundary associated with the cold front looks to plunge southward across southeast South Dakota. Monday will be a much cooler and drier day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s. The upper-level ridge over the southwest CONUS will strengthen slightly on Tuesday.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s along the island chain. Weakening ridging aloft should also assist any convection able to form.
High pressure is centered over southern Utah this evening underneath a dry and mostly stable airmass. The high center will orient itself near the Four Corners area by late tomorrow afternoon, with moisture beginning to increase from the south.
Sufficient low level moisture along with temperatures rising to the low and mid 90s and lift provided by sea breeze and shower boundaries should result in another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours. A cold front is expected to stall over North Texas in the afternoon and a surge of low level moisture will move southward into the northern and eastern regions of the local area in the evening.
A large ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the desert southwest extending into the southern Rockies through Tuesday, then a bit of a pattern change comes into play midweek with a series of upper disturbances riding east along the southern edge of the midlevel westerlies. By late week, the ridge moves far enough east to bring in some monsoonal moisture to southern Wyoming.
350 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will build across the region this week, initially bringing hot and dry weather to start the work week.
An upper-level ridge will begin to build into the central and northern Rockies while at the surface a lee trough is expected to strengthen across the central High Plains. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain of north central Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Temperatures on Monday will be slightly below normal with highs ranging from the lower 80s across north central Nebraska to the upper 80s across southwest Nebraska. For Tuesday, temperatures will remain cooler across portions of north central Nebraska with highs in the upper 70s, meanwhile portions of southwest Nebraska will see a return to the lower 90s. The upper-level ridge of high pressure is expected to center itself over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado mid-week.
Will likely see thunderstorms develop across the High Plains this afternoon, progressing into western Kansas this evening, although expecting this activity will likely remain west/northwest of the forecast area. Temperatures Tuesday will be 1-2 degrees warmer than today. Kleinsasser The forecast area will remain under the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer this week, as upper high pressure remains anchored over the central/southern Rockies. Thinking the highest chances will be across northern and eastern Kansas. ) Once it departs, it'll be clear flying thereafter as a weak sfc inverted ridge spreads slowly from ND to the Ozarks.
A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.
Theta surfaces suggest moisture pooled behind the front returning northward today and helping spark convection in our SE CWA and is where pops will be the highest today. The subtropical high and associated ridge will be sliding back Eastward through tomorrow driven by high latitude troughing deepening over the E.
421 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Large but flat high pressure area dominating the southeastern U. Fringe ridge flow outside the subsidence zone would favor better convective coverage in the western half once gulf breeze convergence becomes established later this morning.