Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough across the northern high Plains late this afternoon will dig southeast across the central high Plains Tonight and into the mid MS River Late Thursday afternoon. As the upper trough passes southeast across the CWA there may be enough ascent for scattered light rain showers, though the stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough will remain across eastern NE into IA. The stronger low-level CAA across the central Plains later Tonight will cause a surface cold front to push southeast across the CWA on Thursday.
High pressure will stretch west to east across the region through Tonight, with scattered to broken cloud cover. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the low 80s.
(This evening through Thursday) The mid-level ridge situated over the Rockies and southern plains flattens as the split jet merges over the plains tonight. Upper low just offshore the California coast will remain nearly stationary over the next day or so, allowing a steady stream of cirrus to move over our area through tomorrow. A low level thermal ridge develops and 850mb winds will shift SW/W overnight. Tomorrow should be a beautiful day with temperatures reaching the low/mid 80s over central/southern OK and western north TX. A prefrontal trough moves through tomorrow causing winds to shift to the NW/N, but the cold front is not expected to arrive until tomorrow evening/night. Convection ahead of the cold front appears possible over far SE counties near the Red River (Bryan and Atoka Counties) after 3PM if the cap can weaken.
The higher elevations along the Continental Divide will likely see a few inches of snow accumulation overnight. Some windy conditions are expected over the high elevations, and some of the lower east slopes of the eastern mtns. Across the lower elevations, breezy westerly winds overnight will help keep temps mild. The upper disturbance exits the area late tonight, with precip over the higher elevations expected to decrease. The timing of the front will make a difference in high temps for the day, so some areas of the plains, mainly the far eastern areas and over El Paso County, could end up see cooler temps than what is currently forecast, if the front come through sooner.
especially as a warm front lifts north Thu morning. Winds will become breezy south of this warm front for Thu afternoon. A cold front will be approaching from the NW late in this TAF period.
As this low marches eastward a sfc boundary sets up along the KS/NE border and helps to generate some overnight convection for the southern half of the CWA. Expecting highs to be slightly cooler, mainly in the 50s, with breezy north winds on Thursday, but it will likely be the last dry day through the end of the forecast period.
The main weather highlight in the short range will be the passage of a cold front overnight tonight which is expected to deliver some light precip to portions of this CWA and kick up the winds on Thursday.
Winds remain southwesterly around 5 mph and with the clouds overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
A frontal boundary is currently stalled to our south in TN while we await low pressure to develop over the central plains tonight and quickly head east through the Ohio Valley late thursday and thursday night. A warm front is forecast to make its way through the local area as the low moves by to our north. It looks like the main severe threat will move on by with the warm front in the evening, but precip will also occur along the cold front. Once the cold front moves through, precip will be on the decline overnight on Thursday night.
530 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 At 2 PM, the low clouds are starting to break in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Upper level trough pushes east over northeastern United States/southern Canada Thursday night.
The closed off upper level low that has brought active weather to SoCal the last few days continues to slowly spin over the southern San Joaquin Valley.
The highest wind speeds will generally be across East Texas. After a warm day on Wednesday, expect the mild conditions to continue through the night with overnight lows only able to fall into the lower to mid 60s. On Thursday, a cold front will begin to slowly push south into portions of our northern zones by the afternoon hours. Using this frontal boundary as a point of focus, areas south of the front will generally continue to see conditions similar to today, with high temperatures in the lower 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Atlantic high pressure continues ridging west across the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the week with easterly winds, shifting onshore near the coast in the afternoon as a sea breeze develops. A weak cold front will dissipate north of the waters this weekend with winds and seas remaining light.
557 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Unsettled and much cooler conds on track after today as mean troughing in central Canada will bias much colder air south into the CONUS. Northern stream trough and associated cold front beginning to shift south into the Northern Plains today. Cold front will shift south tonight with upper jet forcing supporting decent lift aloft. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
/issued 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ Dense fog over the Permian Basin has finally dissipated and temperatures have warmed quickly into the U70s/L80s this afternoon aided by lee troughing across the Southern Plains. This low which is now located over off the CA coast will be our nxt big rain maker in the coming days.
554 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Summary: High winds persist across the High Plains of southeast Wyoming this afternoon with frequent gusts of 55-65 mph with even higher localized values of 75-85 mph being reported. The high wind warning was expanded into all of Platte and Goshen Counties through 8pm this evening with the remaining areas along the Front Range and Arlington/Elk Mountain through 6am Thursday. Fire weather concerns will decrease this evening and tomorrow with cooler temperatures, scattered snow showers, and higher humidity values.
345 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A low pressure system off the southern California coast will move inland late in the week.
An upper level low over the Great Lakes along with an associated weak frontal boundary will slowly sag southward into the Arklatex on Thursday.
PoPs were removed for the evening hours and clouds were increase as the low-level moisture remains trapped beneath the zonal flow aloft. A deepening trough in the upper Great Lakes region will tilt negatively.
1043 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Currently - The Atlantic high extends a weakening ridge across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are slowly falling into the lower 70s, with dew point temperatures in the mid 60s. Short Term Update - Weak ridging to our north will persist overnight, keeping winds light to gentle out of the east northeast. A weak ridge across Florida will maintain light to gentle east northeast breezes across Keys waters overnight.
403 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Chances for rain and snow along a cold front as well as colder temperatures on Thursday are the highlights of the short term forecast. Along this cold front, light rain (possibly transitioning to snow briefly in some areas) will be possible, generally favoring areas along and south of Highway 200 through the overnight hours. These low level lapse rates behind the cold front tonight will also aid the momentum transfer of increased low-level winds which should translate to sustained winds of 20 to near 30 mph tomorrow, with winds possibly becoming breezy overnight.
Right around 00Z, however, most models begin to ramp up the LLJ as the upper trough will be just off to the northwest. This window of higher shear appears to be short lived in the early to late evening as the upper trough moves eastward pretty quickly, and the cold front moves closer to the mid state. CAMs suggest that scattered to widespread thunderstorms will be over KY late in the afternoon, possibly developing into a MCS, with some additional scattered convection diving southeastward into the mid state ahead of the cold front around 00Z.
/issued 225 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ Mild temperatures will continue under a gradually suppressed ridging pattern out ahead of an upper level low approaching from the SE Pacific.
Biggest change with this TAF cycle was to taper early AM fog potential at most sites given more favorable trends from the higher resolution models. The mid level ridge over Mexico into southwest Texas will gradually move to the east by Thursday morning and be over south Texas for Thursday. This mid level ridge will shift into the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday night as a mid level low moves across southern California. After period of late night and morning stratus, there will be bands of cirrus moving across the region as the upper ridge moves across Thursday.
647 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 For the 00Z TAFs, sfc winds will gradually become west to north northwest tonight and Thursday as a sfc trof of low pressure moves across the region. A cold front will begin to enter the area from the northeast Thursday afternoon with winds becoming northeast behind this boundary. Even with the cloud cover across the Panhandles today, temps are expected to rise into the low 70s today thanks to WAA pumping in from the southeast and the lee side low bringing downsloping from the west. Short range models show 700mb theta-e having the cold front Thursday present more as a backdoor cold front that just glances through the northern portions of the Panhandles.
a wind shift out ahead of an approaching cold front is forecast to sweep through the CWA with gusty west to northwesterly winds. By tomorrow, a pronounced thermal ridge will develop along/ahead of the pre-frontal trof, with afternoon temps warming into the upper 70s to low 80s (with some mid 80s not out of the question). Some strong to severe storms will be possible, with the threat ending toward 06Z as the trailing cold front finally surges through the region.
Some partial clearing with sfc ridging S of PIT has resulted in radiational cooling, and patchy fog formation. A deepening trough in the upper Great Lakes region will tilt negatively.
A large region of high pressure will remain across the Florida Peninsula, resulting in scant moisture and above normal temperatures through the forecast cycle. Given a nearby deep, high pressure system, the guidance blender was run on Wednesday afternoon with the results indicating only dime pops and above normal temperatures.
1020 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 At 2 PM, the low clouds are starting to break in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Upper level trough pushes east over northeastern United States/southern Canada Thursday night.
The cold front over northwestern Kansas will move south today a northern stream wave moves from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.
1038 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Unsettled and much cooler conds on track after today as mean troughing in central Canada will bias much colder air south into the CONUS. Northern stream trough and associated cold front beginning to shift south into the Northern Plains today. Cold front will shift south tonight with upper jet forcing supporting decent lift aloft. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
Warm air out ahead of an approaching cold front will bring temperatures in the mid to upper 50s today. Todays warm air advection will be followed by a deep trough that will bring a cold front through the region tonight.
A large and broad area of high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for today and tonight.
302 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Quiet weather through the day with the Texas South Plains region still in the warm sector, beneath a broad flat subtropical upper level high pressure ridge, and periods of high clouds passing overhead. We are watching an upper trough swinging through the northern plains and sending another cold front southward that will push into the northern Rolling Plains and southern Texas Panhandle mid to late this afternoon before stalling out. RMcQueen The upper level low currently in the eastern Pacific Ocean will kick out into the main upper flow with a large upper level trough moving down the west coast.
234 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A back door cold front will edge into about the northeast half of the CWA this afternoon. The cold air will deepen overnight tonight as the cold front slips southwest across the rest of the CWA. Moisture will increase along with the lift ahead of a southern California upper level low.
Aloft, broad ridging centered over the Yucatan peninsula is yielding a moist southwesterly flow that should keep skies broken to overcast through the day.
VFR conditions will slowly deteoriate across CHA and possibly TYS early this morning as a warm frontal boundary approaches the area. As the warm front lifts northward conditions will improve to VFR. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm can be expected with the warm front passage.
Slightly cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
They are expected to lift as a cold front moves through later this morning/afternoon. Attention then shifts to a cold front expected to move through the CWA during the afternoon hours.
327 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A secondary cold front is making its way south across North Dakota early this morning.
The main focus for thunderstorm development today will be a cold front that will push southward through the afternoon and into the evening. Afternoon temperatures ahead of the front will likely be around 20 degrees above normal, aided by a shift to a more downslope component to the low level winds.
a wind shift out of the west to northwest with gusts in the 15-25KT range is forecast to spread across the CWA with a cold front moving through the region Thursday afternoon/early evening.
Webcams under the higher reflectivity are showing rain. Temperatures behind the pcpn are not below freezing, thus do not expect the rain to freeze on roadways this morning.
A cold front has crossed SE Oregon and is making its way into SW Idaho as of 03Z this evening.
The axis of the low level ridge has shifted south today, now residing over the Lake Okeechobee area. Warm and dry conditions expected as high pressure ridge aloft builds over the Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, the Atlc ridge axis will be draped across central FL and produce light winds.
As the warm front lifts northward, the focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development will also shift into far north Georgia through this evening. Highs will largely range from the mid 70s in north Georgia to as warm as the lower 80s in portions of central Georgia.
Short term model guidance continues to trend the bulk of the precipitation further north and east of the area, but have left in low PoPs on the fringes of the CWA to account for the low possibility of some showers skirting the Flint Hills region.
This wave exits by midday with the Canadian wave bringing a cold front through in the late morning to late afternoon. Deep mixing depths look to keep much of any notable surface temperature falls in check though not quite as comfortable with the higher temps going in southeastern locations with some cloud to deal with into midday.
A cold front will trail from the low back into MO/AR. Air ahead of these features will become more unstable as temps rise into the 70s and dew points reach at least the lower 60s.
Short wave riding breaks down on Friday ahead of a deep trough digging south from BC. The trough closes off into a deep closed low by Friday night, and will drift slowly southward off the coast through the weekend.
521 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A pair of low pressure centers sit near and to the west of MN/WI this morning, one over southern Manitoba province and another over south-central South Dakota. A cold front linking the two lows is approaching from the west. The ending of the precipitation will coincide with the passage of the cold front through the area, moving into lower Michigan by late this afternoon. Winds will diminish and skies will slowly clear out this evening through the early morning hours as colder western Canadian high pressure drops into the region tonight through Friday.
741 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Cold front and upper jet streak exiting the region with snow ending across the SW. The surface cold front that crossed the area overnight has passed off to the southeast of the forecast area followed by breezy to windy northwesterly winds. A relatively tight sfc pressure gradient between the departing low pressure system and high pressure building in from the northwest, along with a period of low level cold advection, will lead to gusty northwest winds today, especially over far northwestern South Dakota were wind speeds may approach advisory criteria. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
Large-scale ridging over the NERN PAC combined with an upper-low positioned offshore from SRN CA will favor warm dry weather over NWRN CA today.
Busy TAF period with current IFR to VFR cigs expected to become MVFR at all airports by mid-morning then VFR later this afternoon as a warm front lifts north through the area.
549 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted a split pattern with a upper low offshore of CA and an active west to northwest flow aloft across the northern half of the CONUS. The High Wind Warning was cancelled earlier for the I-25 corridor from Cheyenne to Wheatland and South Laramie Range Foothills where winds had subsided. Winds will diminish this morning as the cold front sinks further south.
A secondary cold front is making its way south across North Dakota early this morning. The synoptic pattern on Friday transitions as modest ridging occurs over the Northern Plains with the previous trough exiting to the east and an amplifying trough develops over the northwest CONUS. chances for snow begin to increase as the northwest CONUS trough closes off and a surge of higher theta-e values advects northward over the central US.
On the backside of this winter storm, a strong, cold, arctic high pressure center will slide into the region. The lower Milk River will remain high through the rest of this week, especially near Nashua, but low-land flooding is all that is expected.
Rain returns tonight through early Friday with a crossing cold front. The stratocu should dissipate some this afternoon, though increasing mid/high clouds are expected ahead of the approaching trough. Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a clearing trend to the area through Friday night.
A cold front is still on-track to slide through the area this morning. This evening, we will see winds become light and variable and skies clear out as high pressure moves in.
Webcams under the higher reflectivity are showing rain. Temperatures behind the pcpn are not below freezing, thus do not expect the rain to freeze on roadways this morning. High pressure over the region tonight into Friday will bring dry conditions to the CWA. A low pressure system southwest of the region will bring breezy easterly winds to the Missouri River valley Friday afternoon.
The cold front associated with this storm will push through on Friday and bring cooler air and gusty winds.
They are expected to lift as a cold front moves through later this morning/afternoon. Attention then shifts to a cold front expected to move through the CWA during the afternoon hours. Discussion: At the beginning of the period, high pressure and cooler air is expected across the area.
/issued 322 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ Upper level ridging building over Mexico today will gradually shift east into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula Friday through the weekend. At the surface, Atlantic ridging will continue to extend across the Florida Peninsula today and Friday, then will redevelop just north of Florida during the weekend after a weak cold front washes out north of the state.
The coming low pressure system sits just off the southern California coast this morning advecting moisture into southern and central portions of our forecast area. The low will move inland this afternoon/evening spreading precipitation into the area from south to north early Friday morning. Anticipate near to just below normal temperatures on Friday as the low passes through ushering in a cooler airmass.
/Issued 234 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ A back door cold front will edge into about the northeast half of the CWA this afternoon. The cold air will deepen overnight tonight as the cold front slips southwest across the rest of the CWA. Moisture will increase along with the lift ahead of a southern California upper level low.
A low pressure system off the southern California coast will move inland today.
The upper trough has moved into a position, to the west, which will produce southwest flow aloft, over much of Texas. As the upper trough moves closer tonight, rain chances increase, especially for our northern counties.
Building high pressure should then return dry weather and a clearing trend to the area through Friday night.
258 AM PDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A low pressure system moving inland through southern California tonight will bring showers from later this morning into Friday with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
513 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 The surface cold front that crossed the area overnight has passed off to the southeast of the forecast area followed by breezy to windy northwesterly winds. A relatively tight sfc pressure gradient between the departing low pressure system and high pressure building in from the northwest, along with a period of low level cold advection, will lead to gusty northwest winds today, especially over far northwestern South Dakota were wind speeds may approach advisory criteria. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
Chance of rain for any one location is less than 20 percent, with the highest chances in western Brevard, Indian River, and St Lucie counties and eastern Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee Counties. High pressure over the area will support favorable boating conditions today across all east central Florida waters.
Quiet weather through the short term as the Coastal Bend remains under the influence of weak ridging. Temperatures will remain warm, with readings out west once again hovering around the 90 degree mark depending on the extent to which they break out of the low cloud cover.
320 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 The surface cold front that crossed the area overnight has passed off to the southeast of the forecast area followed by breezy to windy northwesterly winds. A relatively tight sfc pressure gradient between the departing low pressure system and high pressure building in from the northwest, along with a period of low level cold advection, will lead to gusty northwest winds today, especially over far northwestern South Dakota were wind speeds may approach advisory criteria. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
425 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A cold front will move toward the area Friday but stall just north as it weakens. Fog should be be case each morning as the cold front moves toward the area and especially when it stalls near the area mainly overnight and early morning hours. We would need either cooler nearshore water temps or higher dew pt values to get anything really widespread.
355 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted a split pattern with a upper low offshore of CA and an active west to northwest flow aloft across the northern half of the CONUS. The High Wind Warning was cancelled earlier for the I-25 corridor from Cheyenne to Wheatland and South Laramie Range Foothills where winds had subsided. Winds will diminish this morning as the cold front sinks further south.