Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad ridge of high pressure is currently situated over the four corners area and a closed low is located off the west coast. Under high pressure, temperatures will increase by a few degrees to above normal for tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to upper-90s across the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley, with mostly 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. As the high pressure ridge begins to shift eastward, monsoonal moisture will begin to shift north beginning tomorrow.
1234 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today as a cold front tracks south through the area. As of 730Z, the cold front has moved to between Falls City, NE and St. With the upper high still overhead but in a weakened state, mid and upper-level flow remains quite weak. The upper ridge will restrengthen over the Rockies later in the week. Models have trended toward keeping that ridge axis further west which will help keep the hottest temperatures further west with it. The GFS is slightly further west with the ridge axis while the ECMWF is further east with the ridge axis into the Plains leading to a warmer and drier forecast.
243 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Large upper ridge continues across much of the western CONUS, with west/northwest flow over the northern Plains. Dry weather will continue across much of the area as the western upper ridge slowly slides eastward.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. A small inverted trough is moving through central Arizona kicking off storms along the southern AZ/CA border. High pressure is centered near the Four Corners. Expect this activity to continue with storms eventually moving into the lower deserts along outflow boundaries. For the rest of the week the high slowly meanders westward into eastern Colorado and the southern Great Plains. Deterministic models show a couple weak troughs moving around the southern periphery of the high, which could lead to some nighttime convection or enhanced daytime storms depending on when they move through.
302 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Bermuda high pressure will result in seasonable weather across the area along with the potential for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through mid-week.
Overnight lows will be near normal in the lower 70s.
152 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure in control across the forecast area Monday afternoon. Dry conditions and generally light wind continue through the short term period as the ridge builds over the central Rockies. Similarly, overnight lows will be warmer than average.
Tonight through Tuesday: High pressure will continue building across the area from west to east, becoming center overhead overnight. High pressure will shift south of the region as a cold front approaches from the northwest Tuesday night.
215 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A ridge of high pressure will build over the western US and slowly drift east with the ridge axis over the forecast area by late Tuesday. A closed low off of the California coast will remain nearly stationary through the short term period. The position of the ridge and the closed low will focus the bulk of the monsoonal flow north across Nevada and southwestern Utah by late Tuesday. The exception will over the San Juan mountains and to a lesser extent, along the higher terrain of the Continental Divide.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: The cold front moved out of the area this morning bringing an end to our rain showers/thunderstorms from this weekend. Cooler temperatures and lower dew point values leading to less humid conditions have moved in behind the front as mid-level flow has turned northerly ushering in this cooler/drier airmass. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, in the low to mid 80s, but dew points will remain lower keeping it not as humid.
However, a ridge of high pressure is building in the Four Corners area starting this afternoon which is leading to a south wind with a tint of easterly flow. Current GEFS and European model ensembles are in agreement that the cutoff low will be lifted into a trough throughout the week along with the building of the ridge in the Four Corners.
Mountain locations will have the highest chance of heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding. High temperatures today are expected to be up to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday in the in the inland valleys and High Desert. Near the coast and the lower deserts highs will be similar to a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Storms currently forming in that area, but the cold front moves through in the next couple hours and airmass stabilizes. Dew points dropping behind the front and are falling below 70 degrees finally with a much drier and cooler airmass to follow for Tuesday.
320 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A few clouds are lingering across north central Kansas this afternoon as the front that brought the much cooler air to the region is currently extended across southern Kansas. as high pressure builds to our west and heights aloft begin to rise. With the responsible upper level ridge not showing any weakness as it shifts east by the upcoming weekend.
Fog potential With an area of high pressure moving in overhead tonight, the setup for a valley fog event looks pretty good. Some caveats for dense fog forming tonight are that the saturated layer does not look to be all the deep and with the north winds occurring today as the high moves in, that should produce some general drying of the dew point. small rain chances Through the middle of the week, ridging aloft and at the surface will be the dominant feature with seasonable and quiet weather. The upper level ridge looks to retrograde to the west just enough for the end of the week to allow some ridge runner short wave troughs to start dropping across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions.
Also, seeing temps near 100 well inland and in the lower 90s along the coast.
1112 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon to evening hours, are expected daily until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. The upper-level pattern will begin to transition Tuesday as a trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes.
High pressure building in today will largely control our weather through the work week.
The center of the high begins moving eastward overnight, allowing for a tightening pressure gradient and a light south breeze to develop out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Hot temperatures move back in on Tuesday as 850mb temps in the 20s move into the region ahead of the approaching cold front.
1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge remains off to our northwest today as south to southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of Mexico prevails. The Ridge builds a little over our area on Tuesday.
A seasonal ridge/dome of high pressure will build over the southwestern U. early this week, eventually building over the High Plains by later in the week. This dome of high pressure then builds into the central U.
Made some minor tweaks to the forecast/grids, primarily to raise overnight lows and lower overnight max humidity in the mountains with amplified ridging moving over the region the next few days. Also raised winds and wind gusts slightly early Tuesday morning as a backdoor cold front moves south across the plains. Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a series of high pressure systems exert influence on the region.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be a dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. These extreme temperatures will once again cause heat risk issues for the lower valleys of north central Idaho, especially around Orofino and Riggins Idaho. Monsoonal moisture will be moving northward under the ridge axis.
1134 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast.
Tonight, as the ridging builds in, some radiational fog looks to set up over the central and east due to the recent rainfall and lack of sunshine this afternoon. As a cutoff low remains off the West Coast, an amplifying ridge is expected to develop downstream across the western CONUS.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast.
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 334 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A high pressure ridge remains in place over the Florida peninsula with the axis positioned east-west over north Florida. Flow around the high pressure ridge is causing prevailing east to southeast winds across the forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the highest precipitation chances expected during the day on Tuesday with numerous showers showers and storms possible in the western portion of the Florida Straights and SE Gulf of Mexico.
This is a few degrees cooler than the short term model blend and the 50th NBM. The models are in good agreement suggesting a warm front will be draped across the southwest and ncntl area. This is the middle road, slightly warmer than the guidance blend but very close to the 50th NBM and the RAP model.
Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: Water Vapor imagery revealed an upper level low across southern Missouri-northern Arkansas. Of greater concern will be later this evening and tonight as the cold front continues to move closer to Interstate 44 and interacts with a unstable airmass and the lift from the upper level low. These storms could develop/train over the same areas and with the high moisture content/instability, both severe pulse storms and flash flooding is possible. The cold front will slow overnight and additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the area, especially east of Springfield. Overall Synoptic Pattern: The Ensemble Cluster Analysis reveals pretty high confidence that the area will remain just to the east of the upper level high across the plains.
652 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week.
Expected cloud cover along with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s overnight should keep low temps in the low/mid 70s for the majority of the CWA.
An upstream, low-trailing cold front is moving southward through southern Saskatchewan, and is forecast to reach roughly a Rolla-Garrison-Dickinson line by about daybreak, before slowly shifting toward the ND/SD state line Tuesday. Currently, an area of high pressure that was situated over the forecast area early this morning has moved off to the southeast. A cold front will move through the forecast area late tonight through Tuesday morning. It will also be noticeably cooler over northern North Dakota with highs in the 70s along the International border. Meanwhile, in the south where the front won't make it through until late morning or afternoon, highs should climb into the lower 90s.
600 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A ridge of high pressure will build over the western US and slowly drift east with the ridge axis over the forecast area by late Tuesday. A closed low off of the California coast will remain nearly stationary through the short term period. The position of the ridge and the closed low will focus the bulk of the monsoonal flow north across Nevada and southwestern Utah by late Tuesday. The exception will over the San Juan mountains and to a lesser extent, along the higher terrain of the Continental Divide.
457 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Large upper ridge continues across much of the western CONUS, with west/northwest flow over the northern Plains. Dry weather will continue across much of the area as the western upper ridge slowly slides eastward.
Cold front currently stretched across northern and western Oklahoma expected to continue pushing into central Oklahoma, reaching near the I-40 corridor toward midnight.
530 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure in control across the forecast area Monday afternoon. Dry conditions and generally light wind continue through the short term period as the ridge builds over the central Rockies. Similarly, overnight lows will be warmer than average.
Otherwise, subtropical ridge remains situated to our north with the ridge axis extending westward from the center and across the southeastern U.
640 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 A few clouds are lingering across north central Kansas this afternoon as the front that brought the much cooler air to the region is currently extended across southern Kansas. as high pressure builds to our west and heights aloft begin to rise. With the responsible upper level ridge not showing any weakness as it shifts east by the upcoming weekend.
Moisture in place over northern Arizona will only increase through mid week as an area of high pressure remains over the Four Corners area into Colorado.
Rain will taper off across the area late tonight and tomorrow, with cooler conditions expected for Tuesday. Currently, an upper wave is moving east through Ontario and a surface cold front is draped from Chicago to just east of Peoria. Skies will be cloudy in most areas to start, but give way to some sun later tomorrow starting in the NW with considerably cooler air in place area- wide. ridge and eastern U. trough with IL right in between. A cold front stretched from KSPI-KTIP at 23z and was pressing southeast at 12 kt. The other main issue is low ceilings behind the cold front, with MVFR currently observed at KPIA-KBMI. Lower confidence on scattering of the lower ceilings but model consensus around 16-18z is forecast.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 88 72 86 71 / 20 70 40 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 71 85 71 / 20 70 50 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 71 84 70 / 10 70 50 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 69 83 68 / 10 70 50 90 70.
Expect morning lows mostly in the low 70s. Temperatures will be a bit cooler tomorrow. /issued 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022/ GOES-16 satellite trends this afternoon place a weak upper level low centered over Northwest Arkansas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley with the greatest coverage occurring over Arkansas, and isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms towards the Tennessee River. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are predominantly in the lower 90s across most locations. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. The aforementioned weak upper level low is expected to move east on Tuesday, resulting in an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily during peak afternoon heating.
1012 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. PoPs just a bit lower than today's, with temps climbing into the low/mid 90s.
/issued 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022/ GOES-16 satellite trends this afternoon place a weak upper level low centered over Northwest Arkansas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley with the greatest coverage occurring over Arkansas, and isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms towards the Tennessee River. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are predominantly in the lower 90s across most locations. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. The aforementioned weak upper level low is expected to move east on Tuesday, resulting in an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily during peak afternoon heating.
412 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Upper ridging is expected to maintain hot and dry weather conditions through the next several days.
636 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 (Tonight) Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to persist through tonight as a cold front currently draped across southeast Kansas eases into northern portions of the area.
636 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 In the wake of the cold front, much-needed relief from the monsoonal humidity will arrive overnight as northwesterly winds transport dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s into our area.
A closed low remains parked off the northern California coast this afternoon with high pressure over the Four Corners region. These features continue to bring moisture northward as seen by cloud cover in portions of the foothills and Valley and showers/thunderstorms in the high Sierra Nevada this afternoon.
305 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Water vapor imagery shows very dry mid to upper level air over Colorado as an upper level ridge of high pressure drifts over the Four Corners region. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than normal with moderate southerly winds. The ridge aloft will strengthen and move directly over Denver on Tuesday. Considering there will be plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will warm into the low to mid 90s across the plains. However, the low level instability may be enough to generate a stray storm or two especially over the Palmer Divide and eastern plains to the east of DIA.
612 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was located across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma and should drift southward into northwest Texas this evening. An upper-level ridge that has been dominating the pattern will shift northwestward and weaken slightly through tomorrow.
Otherwise, a mild night is in store for the Tennessee Valley with overnight lows in the low 70s.
726 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Bermuda high pressure will result in seasonable weather across the area along with the potential for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through mid-week.
728 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. PoPs just a bit lower than today's, with temps climbing into the low/mid 90s.
Surface analysis places a low-level area of high pressure centered near Bermuda, with its associated axis extending southwestward towards Central Florida.
The center of the high begins moving eastward overnight, allowing for a tightening pressure gradient and a light south breeze to develop out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Hot temperatures move back in on Tuesday as 850mb temps in the 20s move into the region ahead of the approaching cold front. The 500mb high will be centered across CO Wednesday, with the apex of the ridge extending up across MT and into southwestern Canada, and northwest flow over our area.
333 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Discussion/Marine --Mild weather through the week-- An upper level low moving through eastern Canada has an elongated trough that will extend across the Great Lakes region. In the wake of a cold front moving south, drier and cooler air will advect into the region.
253 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler, much less humid, and generally dry conditions expected the next couple days.
High pressure at the surface will bring another mostly sunny day for the forecast area today.
155 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery depicts dry air over the northern Rockies and northern plains, beneath a building ridge. Hot and mostly dry weather will continue for the next few days, as the upper ridge builds.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Still dealing with upper ridge aloft which will have two centers today with a weakness between them, one centered over CO and the other off the coast of Carolina. This ridge will wobble around Wednesday strengthening over the Nrn Rockies. Near normal high temperatures today and a few degrees cooler Wednesday with increased cloud cover. Lows mostly in the 70s with a few 60s for cooler locations.
1211 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A few clouds are lingering across north central Kansas this afternoon as the front that brought the much cooler air to the region is currently extended across southern Kansas. as high pressure builds to our west and heights aloft begin to rise. With the responsible upper level ridge not showing any weakness as it shifts east by the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures will be cooler today, topping out around 90 degrees with overnight lows in the low 70s.
The pattern features an upper low off the coast and a large area of high pressure aloft centered near the Four Corners. Temperatures will be a cooler on Tuesday, especially in SE Oregon, except for little change in south-central Idaho.
132 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. PoPs just a bit lower than today's, with temps climbing into the low/mid 90s. Warm on Wednesday as the Bermuda high maintains control over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Weak ridging dissipates during the day and allows for a marginal increase in shower and storm chances. Still warm with highs in the lower 90s.
Inverted trough in the upper levels continues to support convection over the Gulf of Mexico as it travels west, while ridging builds back towards the Southeast over the next few days. At the surface, high pressure remains in control with dry air advecting from the east towards the Sunshine State. On tab for today, dry Saharan Air is going to try mix in through this morning allowing for some of the high clouds to clear out. Compared to yesterday, there should be less upper level support from the aforementioned trough, however, some of the drier air trying to mix in could allow for some strong winds to push down as a microburst.
It will be a cooler day with high temperatures generally in the 70s. High pressure will then build across the area tonight, providing fair weather.
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) An eastern trough will begin to dig southward late Wednesday pushing a cold front along with it.
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A cold front currently stretches from Western Oklahoma northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
Winds will be light and variable with some lower MVFR ceilings developing along the highway 84 corridor this evening. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.
A ridge continues to build over the next couple of days.
The Tennessee Valley will remain wedged between high pressure over the Atlantic and a broad trough digging across the upper Midwest today.
Storms currently forming in that area, but the cold front moves through in the next couple hours and airmass stabilizes. Dew points dropping behind the front and are falling below 70 degrees finally with a much drier and cooler airmass to follow for Tuesday. Only potential for showers this week is with a secondary cold front on Wednesday night as the longwave pattern amplifies and a trough digs into the Great Lakes.
The lee trough could provide enough lift for precipitation; however, there is hardly any CAPE very little to no 0-3 km shear. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower 60s tonight. Tuesday sees the beginning of our next warming trend as the areas of high pressure expand across the Four Corners/Rockies across the Plains. The frontal boundary lingering over Colorado and southern Kansas is anticipated to move over the area tomorrow, which could lead to a few sporadic showers/storms over the High Plains. Wednesday, the core of high pressure aloft is expected to gradually push east over the Tri-State area.
While a few sprinkles could fall from this thick cloud shield tonight across LA county, the lower levels of the atmosphere are still quite dry, so only a 10 percent chance of measurable light rain.
Clouds and rain will continue to keep the "cooler", around average, temperatures across the fa today and Wednesday.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.