Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1217 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Outside of isolated flurries on Thursday, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend. Dry weather, as defined by non-measurable precipitation, is expected to continue today despite the encroachment of an upper trough/associated reinforcing cold front. Either way, sufficient low level lapse rates into a shallow dendritic growth, with frontal lift and forcing for ascent via the upper trough, albeit weak, are enough to maintain a slight chance of some light snow/flurries. Early timing of the reinforcing cold front should hold high temperature about 10 degrees under the averages.
May see a bit more convective activity after 14Z especially toward VCT as a second surge of high pressure pushes through S TX.
254 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 An elongated positively tilted trough was moving southward through the middle of the country early this morning. This strong high pressure area will result in well below normal temperatures today with highs in the 20s and lower 30s. Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle teens. What will keep us from really bottoming out is that the high tonight will still be to the north with surface winds in the 5 to 10 mph range, keeping that area mixed.
The main story in the short term is the continued snowfall with the upper trough moving into the area. With the ample sunshine, high temperatures were nudged up slightly, but are still only expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
High pressure remains in control with dry weather through the end of the week.
Close to home, the cold front remains over the coastal waters, roughly 20 miles offshore. A cold front is stalled just off the coast of SETX and into SELA this evening. Increasing isentropic ascent and a reinforcing cold front moving southward through the Central and Southern Plains will result in showers and rain becoming more widespread after midnight through Thursday morning.
1036 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2020 The main midlevel trough axis is beginning to work over the area from the north. The air mass behind this trough will filter into portions of southern Colorado therefore the lows tonight should be cooler by about 10 degrees. A transitory ridge will begin to build into the area tomorrow allowing warm advection to modify the post trough air mass.
1220 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Outside of isolated flurries on Thursday, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend. Dry weather, as defined by non-measurable precipitation, is expected to continue today despite the encroachment of an upper trough/associated reinforcing cold front. Either way, sufficient low level lapse rates into a shallow dendritic growth, with frontal lift and forcing for ascent via the upper trough, albeit weak, are enough to maintain a slight chance of some light snow/flurries. Early timing of the reinforcing cold front should hold high temperature about 10 degrees under the averages.
Southern stream system will produce accumulating snow across parts of the Tennessee Valley, but all in all the high pressure will win out across Indiana and all but extreme southern Kentucky. Low-level dry air will support enough evaporative cooling to keep it mostly snow, but sfc temps will still be solidly above freezing so little or no accumulation is expected.
For the rest of today, high pressure will prevail across the greater region and no further chances of precipitation are expected for the rest of the short term period. Have kept with cooler highs over the expected snowpack.
312 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Lake effect snow will continue southeat of Lake Ontario through this afternoon, before high pressure moves across NY and PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather.
146 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area Thursday.
1122 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A strong area of high pressure over the upper Midwest will generate rapid radiational cooling overnight with clear skies and light winds. As a ridge approaches and the area of high pressure slowly slides south on Thursday, skies will remain mostly clear, and increasing winds slowly shifting from northwestern to southwesterly. These southwesterly winds will begin advecting warmer temperatures into the region, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper teens.
332 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Outside of isolated flurries today, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend. Dry weather, as defined by non-measurable precipitation, is expected to continue today despite the encroachment of an upper trough/associated reinforcing cold front. Either way, sufficient low level lapse rates into a shallow dendritic growth, with frontal lift and forcing for ascent via the upper trough, albeit weak, are enough to maintain a slight chance of some light snow/flurries. Early timing of the reinforcing cold front should hold high temperature about 10 degrees under the averages.
CIGS are still expected to take turn for the lower overnight, especially after 08Z when IFR/LIFR CIGS could persist until mid morning.
In fact, a near freezing isothermal profile develops around 14-17Z above the above freezing near surface layer. In the higher elevations, the snow may cause more brief impacts to travel if temps are able to drop colder than forecast. Any snow that may accumulate on grassy areas should melt very quickly with temps warming into the lower 40s.
1030 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 East-southeast flow continues to prevail in the lowest 10,000 feet of the atmosphere, as a high pressure ridge over Central Florida weakens and settles south.
It will be a tricky temperature forecast given fresh snow cover, and have tried to draw in slightly cooler temperatures over new snow and immediately downstream from those areas.
1038 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020 A 1045+ mb high pressure remains overhead, which will lead to prime radiational cooling conditions overnight. Winds will be light as the center of the high pressure moves overhead, but I believe winds will still remain around 5-7mph. The region remains under the influence under a broad area of high pressure through the weekend, with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected as winds back to a southerly flow during Thursday afternoon. A warming trend is expected into the weekend as ridging aloft builds over the central US, and southwesterly flow at the surface develops as a broad area of high pressure gradual slides southeast of the area.
Low temperatures, while still cold will range as much as 25 to 30 degrees warmer than early this morning. Lows from the low 20s most of north central, to mid teens west and southwest.
High pressure will remain firmly in place today and tonight. A weak wave of energy will pass through the high pressure ridge on Friday, beginning to weaken it slightly. Other valleys, such as Salmon and possibly Missoula, may have more difficulty mixing out, which may keep temperatures cooler than currently indicated in the forecast.
Dry with temperatures trending warmer through Friday.
Cold air advection will keep temperatures much cooler throughout the day and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the teens in many locations. Hedged a bit cooler in the band where the greatest snow should have occurred. While there probably will be some snow to melt, thinking non-snow areas will turn surprisingly warmer with near superadiabatic lapse rates in the shallow boundary layer. The return flow Friday night will lead to much warmer low temperatures.
Otherwise, skies will clear by afternoon with the reinforcing cold front providing a notable cool down.
/issued 331 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/ As of 2:00 AM the cold front was beginning to push into our northern row of counties. Temperatures are a bit warmer than previously forecasted with above freezing temperatures likely for much of the FA by sunrise. The extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains will be the areas most likely to experience lows at or below freezing. Precip type, once top down moistening has been achieved, will be mostly liquid until temps drop to below freezing. Model soundings suggest the warm nose aloft should be eroded by the time surface temps reach freezing and should allow for mostly snow/ice needles. Temperatures will warm back into the 50s and 60s by the weekend as upper ridging moves overhead and surface winds return to the south.
331 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 As of 2:00 AM the cold front was beginning to push into our northern row of counties. Temperatures are a bit warmer than previously forecasted with above freezing temperatures likely for much of the FA by sunrise. The extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains will be the areas most likely to experience lows at or below freezing. Precip type, once top down moistening has been achieved, will be mostly liquid until temps drop to below freezing. Model soundings suggest the warm nose aloft should be eroded by the time surface temps reach freezing and should allow for mostly snow/ice needles. Temperatures will warm back into the 50s and 60s by the weekend as upper ridging moves overhead and surface winds return to the south.
444 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Lake effect snow will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through this afternoon, before high pressure moves across NY and PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather. Building high pressure will yield a quiet day on Friday with temperatures moderating into the lower 30s over the Twin Tiers.
These winds, along with broken to overcast high clouds overspreading the area from the southwest, is resulting warmer temperatures at most valley locations as compared to the chilly valley readings we experienced the two previous mornings. These clouds are associated with a trough of low pressure pushing in from the Eastern Pacific. High temperatures for today have been bumped up in most locations as a warmer start and filtered sunshine should yield a mild afternoon for late February- generally 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
630 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Lake effect snow will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through this afternoon, before high pressure moves across NY and PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather. Building high pressure will yield a quiet day on Friday with temperatures moderating into the lower 30s over the Twin Tiers.
511 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Lake effect snow will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through this afternoon, before high pressure moves across NY and PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather. Building high pressure will yield a quiet day on Friday with temperatures moderating into the lower 30s over the Twin Tiers.
638 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 A broad region of strong high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi valley while extending into Lower Michigan today. Light north wind gradually backs west and southwest tonight under clear sky as high pressure settles into the Ohio valley by sunrise Friday.
However, given the lag in air temperature drop and above freezing surface temperatures no impacts are expected. Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid 40s. As a result, drier and cooler conditions are expected through the first half of the weekend.
649 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Lake effect snow will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through this afternoon, before high pressure moves across NY and PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather. Building high pressure will yield a quiet day on Friday with temperatures moderating into the lower 30s over the Twin Tiers.
Another cold front moves through the area today, with gusty north to northeast winds developing. The skies begin to clear across the northern 2/3 of the area tonight as a surface arctic high pressure ridge will be located from Oklahoma to Illinois by 12Z Friday. However, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer across the southwest part of the area due to more cloud cover.
404 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Currently the latest cold front is moving through the coastal waters offshore of St Mary parish in south central Louisiana. Temperatures are ranging from the mid 40s around AEX to the lower 50s for BPT and LCH with near 60 for LFT. This will pretty much be the high temperatures for today as colder air will continue to advect into the region. The ground is very saturated and these additional rains will spill into the low lying areas and bayous. Rains though are not expected to raise the river levels much as rainfall totals will remain on the lower side. This latest front will again dry the region out with morning lows below freezing around AEX and frost across the lakes region in southeast Texas and central Louisiana.
628 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure will build into the area today through Friday and then persist through the weekend.
/issued 337 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/ A positively-tilted trough axis is propagating southeastward from the high plains toward the Florida peninsula as weak high pressure is eroded across the Florida peninsula. The trough is dragging a cold front with it, and this will be arriving on our doorstep late tonight. The trough axis and attendant cold front will push through quickly tonight. A colder, continental airmass originating from Canada will quickly take the place, and a northerly wind will allow the cooler air to funnel southward. It will feel much cooler on Friday morning, with some areas being 20 degrees cooler.
Our recent snow may impact temps by a few degrees and have kept readings fairly conservative and slightly cooler than guidance (in the 30-35 degree range). Snow amounts across the area will be reported this morning but the highest totals that we've heard of so far average around 1.
511 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 An elongated positively tilted trough was moving southward through the middle of the country early this morning. This strong high pressure area will result in well below normal temperatures today with highs in the 20s and lower 30s. Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle teens. What will keep us from really bottoming out is that the high tonight will still be to the north with surface winds in the 5 to 10 mph range, keeping that area mixed. High pressure will move southward through the area Thursday night into Friday, eventually moving to our southeast by Friday afternoon. Winds transition to the south and southwest which should allow our highs to rebound close to normal with highs in the low to mid 40s.
A short lived ridge will build in today remaining through Friday before the next system moves in. Daytime temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday in most locations thanks to cooler air associated with the trough last evening/this morning. Expect slightly warmer overnight temperatures tonight again due to the WAA and a few more clouds.
Cold air advection will keep temperatures much cooler throughout the day and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the teens in many locations. Hedged a bit cooler in the band where the greatest snow should have occurred. While there probably will be some snow to melt, thinking non-snow areas will be much warmer. With stronger return flow, temperatures should warm significantly during the day, and with some wind overnight, warmer low temperatures are also expected.
Light snowfall is trying to work its way southward into extreme northern OK as the elongated mid to upper trough axis does the same.
An upper level ridge will continue a slow warming trend over the next few days, and bring dry conditions to the area.
300 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 An upper level ridge will prevail over the region today, gradually becoming a dry W/NW flow by Friday. In the meantime, lows will become progressively warmer the next couple of nights. Lee-side surface troffing will continue to keep gradients tight through the day with southwest winds gusting into the 35-45 mph range at times today in the favored gap locations around Livingston and Nye, and perhaps occasionally at Big Timber and Harlowton.
656 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Outside of isolated flurries today, high pressure will maintain dry conditions, with moderating temperature through the weekend. Previous Discussion: Dry weather, as defined by non- measurable precipitation, is expected to continue today despite the encroachment of an upper trough/associated reinforcing cold front. Either way, sufficient low level lapse rates into a shallow dendritic growth, with frontal lift and forcing for ascent via the upper trough, albeit weak, are enough to maintain a slight chance of some light snow/flurries. Early timing of the reinforcing cold front should hold high temperature about 10 degrees under the averages.
Early this morning, areas of light snow continued to fall across portions of the CWA as the mid-level trough axis tracked southward over the area. Continued northerly winds today will usher cooler air into the region with afternoon highs only reaching into the low 30s.
It will be a tricky temperature forecast given fresh snow cover, and have tried to draw in slightly cooler temperatures over new snow and immediately downstream from those areas. Friday: A weak surface boundary enters the area early Friday, as the core of the low-lvl thermal ridge moves overhead. Elsewhere, will knock down temperatures along the fresh 3-6" of snowpack along the Highway 20 corridor.
Low temperatures, while still cold will range as much as 25 to 30 degrees warmer than early this morning. Lows from the low 20s most of north central, to mid teens west and southwest. On Friday, the upper ridge will flatten out across the region. With a downsloping flow, 850mb temperatures will warm to 4C to 6C with highs reaching 50 to the low 50s most areas.
440 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Currently the latest cold front is moving through the coastal waters offshore of St Mary parish in south central Louisiana. Temperatures are ranging from the mid 40s around AEX to the lower 50s for BPT and LCH with near 60 for LFT. This will pretty much be the high temperatures for today as colder air will continue to advect into the region. The ground is very saturated and these additional rains will spill into the low lying areas and bayous. Rains though are not expected to raise the river levels much as rainfall totals will remain on the lower side. This latest front will again dry the region out with morning lows below freezing around AEX and frost across the lakes region in southeast Texas and central Louisiana.
1040-1045 mb high pressure will build over western/ central Kansas this morning -- via subsidence /height rises/ in the wake of the departing shear axis. Strengthening SSW low-level flow /weak warm advection/ atop a lingering snowpack could conceivably result in the development of stratus and/or freezing fog between midnight-sunrise Friday morning, though SSW flow is far less favorable than SSE-ESE flow -- and little if any snowpack may be left after a full day of unimpeded insolation.
514 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Strong high pressure will bring clearing skies today, but a cold air mass over the region will result in cold temperatures.
412 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 Very quiet night across the area as upper ridging begins to nose into the area. Warmer air will continue to build into the region today, with good agreement in 850 mb temps above zero arriving by 00z. This air mass will also be very dry, with PWATs in the lowest 1 percent of NAEFS climo. Distinct split flow pattern develops Friday, with the srn stream featuring a closed/not quite cut-off low off the CA coast and the nrn stream well to our north in CN.
An upper level ridge will build into the area on Fri and continue into Sat. Highs, across nern CO, will rise into the low to mid 50s on Fri and then from 55 to 60 on Sat. For Sat night, an upper level low over the swrn US, will begin to move east northeast and is currently fcst to move across Colorado on Sun. By Mon night into Tue the ECMWF has a rather stg upper level trough developing over the area while the GFS has stg NW flow aloft.
436 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure over the western and northern US will spread out to cover the entire Lower 48 on Friday.
315 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 An upper level ridge will continue a slow warming trend over the next few days, and bring dry conditions to the area.
High pressure aloft will bring dry and stable conditions to Utah through the end of the week. A developing low pressure system off the southern California coast will move east across the southern Great Basin this weekend.
Southwesterly winds are already ushering in warmer air.
301 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough running from Ontario through the Upper Mississippi valley and into the US central Plains. Replacing it, is a ridge running up the Pacific Northwest coastline and then turning east over southern British Columbia into Alberta where its nose if forming a chinook which is dropping south down the front range into Montana.
248 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020 Very quiet night across the area as upper ridging begins to nose into the area. Warmer air will continue to build into the region today, with good agreement in 850 mb temps above zero arriving by 00z. This air mass will also be very dry, with PWATs in the lowest 1 percent of NAEFS climo. Distinct split flow pattern develops Friday, with the srn stream featuring a closed/not quite cut-off low off the CA coast and the nrn stream well to our north in CN.
233 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Low pressure heads east off SE US Coast tonight. Strong high pressure dominates Friday through the weekend, which starts cold and then moderates.
Highs should get near or a few degrees above freezing.
High pressure builds across NY and PA this weekend with mild temperatures and fair weather. Building high pressure will yield a quiet day on Friday with temperatures moderating into the lower 30s over the Twin Tiers.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting slowly eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is sinking slowly south-southeast across the Central Plains. For the rest of today, high pressure will prevail across the greater region and no further chances of precipitation are expected for the rest of the short term period. Have kept with cooler highs over the expected snowpack.
Skies will generally clear from north to south this evening with decreasing winds as Arctic high pressure builds directly over area by late tonight.
219 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 Chilly conditions will continue through Friday before warmer and windy conditions arrive this weekend. A strong cold front continues to push through the area this afternoon and should clear the Rio Grande this evening. Expect below freezing conditions at most locations except along the Rio Grande where temperatures will bottom out in the 30's. We could squeeze out some freezing drizzle or freezing fog in these areas so if you have travel plans around the I-20/I-10 split you may want to take it slow. Ridging aloft will give way to southwesterly flow this weekend as a strong storm system moves onshore along the West Coast.
An upper level ridge will build into the area on Fri and continue into Sat. Highs, across nern CO, will rise into the low to mid 50s on Fri and then from 55 to 60 on Sat. For Sat night, an upper level low over the swrn US, will begin to move east northeast and is currently fcst to move across Colorado on Sun. By Mon night into Tue the ECMWF has a rather stg upper level trough developing over the area while the GFS has stg NW flow aloft. However, both models do show a cold front moving across nern CO Mon night into early Tue.
1232 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
Wintry mix falling across much of Middle TN this morning, with generally all snow at the higher elevations of the Plateau.
Currently the high center was over eastern Nebraska, and temperatures across ND ranged from the lower teens above zero in southwestern ND to around 10 below in Oakes in the southern James Valley of ND. Wind chills there were the lowest in central ND, near advisory criteria at 8 AM CST. Southwesterly winds are already ushering in warmer air.