Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front approaches Thursday before stalling across the area for a few days. Similar to the past several days, a lingering frontal boundary ahead of an approaching cold front will bring more rounds of showers and thunderstorms today with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall and some gusty winds. A decelerating cold front will be making its way into our area Thursday night before stalling across the east coast into the weekend.
As the upper level trough that is responsible for dragging the front across Texas swings into the Great Lakes Region through the day today, producing the first Moderate Risk since 2013 for Detroit, high pressure will build in across South Texas. The ridge will be centered over the state by Thursday. With light easterly winds keeping moisture at bay behind today's front mornings should be pleasant in the 60s with afternoon highs near normal in the lower 90s.
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Upper level ridge axis sets up over Pacific NW for today, and shifts slowly eastward through Thursday. Ridge axis does not appear to move over the region until Thursday evening.
Expect a cold front to move through overnight and early Wednesday. In the long range, high pressure will be the main feature for the region. Cloud-wise, an area of MVFR ceilings may impact KCMI through sunrise, but a more widespread ceiling below 3,000 feet is expected with the passage of the cold front Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging is in place over the 4 corners region with northwest flow over the forecast area. Dry air and full sun point to good warming today after a cool morning with the warmer end of narrow MOS range for high temperatures favored. South winds tonight point to warmer overnight lows than this morning, but with winds remaining fairly light and dry air in place, temperatures a bit below normal still look good.
A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday and will move to central GA overnight. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to central Georgia Wednesday night and continue across eastern and southern portions of the state Thursday. Given high pressure in place and northwest flow, precip with this front is pretty unlikely. Ceilings will then improve to MVFR by 15Z and low-VFR by 17Z as storms push into north and central Georgia ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to NW behind the cold front on Wednesday evening.
231 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Split upper trof over the central CONUS will continue to slide east today as upper ridging moves into the Pacific northwest. Warmer air aloft will provide for warmer temperatures on Thursday, along with much lower chances for any afternoon instability showers.
1157 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The high wind warning can be cancelled west of Lincoln county. Pacific high pressure across the Cntl Rockies will build east overnight and skies should clear from west to east by Wednesday morning. The high pressure will present clear skies Wednesday and Wednesday night.
137 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A line of convection continues to move southeastward across the region just ahead of a cold front. Eventually, VFR conditions will return as convection should move out the region by sunrise, with wind shifts noted in the wake of the cold front. /issued 1015 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/ Showers and thunderstorms continue to propagate south and east along a southeastward moving cold front late this evening that extended across S AR into extreme NW LA and NE TX. Instability was substantial enough downstream of the cold front for some severe storms to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts earlier across portions of SW AR and NE TX. Did bump pops upward just slightly for the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours downwind of the cold front given storm coverage attm.
On Wednesday, it will be a bit warmer with a few showers along The Divide and across mainly the mountains of Central Montana.
A warming trend and dry weather will exist across Utah as high pressure aloft strengthens over the interior west through the end of the week.
07Z (2 AM CDT) surface analysis places the low center just east of the KC Metro, Topeka's ob is at 976mb. Increased surface pressure gradient force trailing the low center has resulted in 4 to 6 mb pressure rises and north/northwest winds sustained around 30 mph gusting to 40 and upwards of 50 mph at times across southeast Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. Winds will remain elevated through noon, but should begin to relax through the afternoon as the parent cutoff 500mb low begins to fill in, becoming part of the larger trough.
Per SPC Sounding Climatology, these are some of the lowest 500-mb heights on record for mid-June for southwest Missouri. With high pressure settling in above fairly saturated soils, some very patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight beneath clear skies. Highs will range from the mid 70s across eastern KS, to mid 60s for locations east of HWY 65 where the cold core of that 5640m closed low will be more near.
256 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Look for upper level northwest flow today across NE Montana ahead of an advancing ridge over the western U. The upper level ridge will continue to build and become more amplified heading into the second half of this week. The associated height rises and large scale subsidence will drive mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures across the CWA.
However, will likely be more of a high end wind advisory as the low pulls away thru the morning, so current plan is to replace the warning with a wind advisory in a few hours along/east of a KSLN-KICT line until noon. Otherwise, a cooler day and more pleasant after the winds subside by the afternoon.
Starting at the top, a negatively- tiled 200-mb trough digs in for the afternoon and our CWA resides in the right entrance region of this 60-75 knot jet by 00z. Similar story at 500-mb with a compact trough and enclosed low over IL by 21z. 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-35 knots (increasing to 45+ knots immediately along and behind the cold front). Forcing at the surface is a cold front. This is important because if my memory serves me correctly, in similar 500 mb patterns, we would typically see a warm front lifting in during the morning hours full of stratiform rain and stratus clouds. Despite the dry slot, moisture returns though the low levels are ample for storms.
/Today through Thursday/ A cold front continues to push through the region this morning, with the boundary located along a line from Lufkin, TX. A noticeable change in the airmass today, as gusty WNW winds will bring in cooler and less humid conditions in wake of the frontal boundary along with mostly sunny skies. Lows overnight into Thursday morning will also be much cooler than the past couple of days, with temps in the low 60s areawide. Ridging aloft will drive the weather, or lack there of, for the foreseeable future. /issued 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ A line of convection continues to move southeastward across the region just ahead of a cold front. Eventually, VFR conditions will return as convection should move out the region by sunrise, with wind shifts noted in the wake of the cold front.
A cold front will bring scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon and evening. High pressure will return dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for Thursday. Another very warm, humid day is in store ahead of an approaching cold front.
The storms formed ahead of a cold front which is now moving across central Arkansas. Cooler and much drier air will move into the region behind the front today. High pressure will build across the entire region tonight starting a period of dry weather with below normal temperatures.
/issued 934 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/ A Pacific cold front/dryline had moved into western AR at midevening. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will come overnight tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. Drier air will filter into the area with the high pressure. The 12Z ECMWF brings a back door cold front into the Mid-South which will stall out as an upper low retrogrades westward over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the GFS begins to build an upper ridge over the area. KRM 06 TAF A cold front is currently traversing across AR.
High pressure ridge building over the region will allow temperatures to continue to climb today and tomorrow along with fairly light winds.
Ongoing rain showers are still effecting eastern counties along and east of HWY 183 but will push out of the CWA in the next couple of hours including the high winds gusting up to 50 mph in this particular area.
252 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Low pressure advancing from Iowa to Michigan today will swing a sharp cold front through the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Tonight high pressure over the Red River Valley will build eastward providing us with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions once the early evening storms exit. On Thursday, an upper trough axis runs north to south through the Ohio Valley. While at the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern Oklahoma/Texas border extends east through our region. Skies over southern Indiana and central Kentucky will remain mostly clear and dry as upper ridging begins slowly moving east towards us.
225 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Quiet night precip wise, but surface winds remain strong ahead of the approaching cold front. Chances for showers and storms will increase later this morning as the Plains trough moves northeast towards the Great Lakes, and the cold front tracks across the region. With dewpoints in the 50s, and highs in the low to mid 80s, its going to feel quite pleasant for what we are used to in the mid state during the summer.
A surface cold front will move through this morning and bring drier and slightly cooler air into the region.
/issued 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/ /00Z TAFS/ Cold front with area of blowing dust will beginning affecting KABI around 0030Z, bringing MVFR visibilities for a couple hours.
233 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 An upper ridge of high pressure will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days. The exception will be Thursday when there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains as an upper level disturbance rotate around the periphery of the ridge.
307 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Hot weather is expected today, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Thursday under building high pressure. Building diurnal sfc based instability should result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the afternoon, especially E of PIT across the higher terrain. The negatively tilted Central CONUS trough, and its associated sfc cold front, is progged to track east, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region late this afternoon and tonight along with a line of thunderstorms. Highs outside of the higher terrain should range from the upper 80s to around 90, with heat indices again below advisory levels.
An W-E oriented mid-upper ridge will strengthen across the SE CONUS over the next 24h, with high centers over SOTX and offshore the Mid Atlantic coast.
The warming trend continues as the ridge aloft moves over western Wyoming with 700 mb temperatures near 9 Celsius yielding maximum temperatures from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
All eyes now on an incoming cold front, expected to be near the TN river by mid-morning Wed. A cold front will move through the mid state during the day bringing with it a quick shot of showers and a few storms.
1042 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 Upper-level analysis shows a trough pushing through the central CONUS, with low pressure over western KS. As upper ridging builds over the western CONUS, a warming trend and dry weather are expected through the end of the week.
We'll see some lingering showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder south/east) today as lingering moisture is worked upon by residual upper divergence and some differential PVA ahead of the mid-level trough. Otherwise, mainly dry weather will prevail along with cooler than normal temperatures for a change. At the beginning of the period, a broad, but negatively tilted upper- level trough will be centered over the Upper Great Lakes region. The trough over the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift east and dig into the Ohio Valley as an upstream jetstreak approaches the base of the trough. Meanwhile at the surface, a trailing cold front draped from southern Manitoba through Lake Superior. This cold front will sage southeastward with time and isolated showers are possible across central MN and western WI along the cold front Thursday evening.
205 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a strong low pressure system moving into eastern Kansas early this morning. Northwest flow developed aloft while a ridge amplified along the west coast. Today, the aforementioned low pressure system drifts further east towards the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with upper ridging nudging into the Plains. On Thursday, the ridge continues to build towards the region and be the dominating feature.
High pressure ridging builds in today leading to drier and warmer conditions.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week and into the weekend as a cold front moves into the area Thursday and stalls along the I-95 corridor. South to southwest flow aloft with upper ridge axis just off the coast. Strong heating will aid scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon well ahead of an upper trough. Went with guidance consensus for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will be slowly moving through the area Thursday morning as it encounters the ridge of high pressure centered offshore. The upper level trough will lift over the ridge with the strongest winds aloft moving into the Northeast US.
1135 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020 The early afternoon satellite imagery showed the remnants of TS Cristobal over the middle MS Valley, with a trailing upper low over central KS. Confidence of meeting high wind criteria across the southern NE Panhandle is waning as cloud cover is slow to exit, and the High Wind Warning may be cancelled prior to 3 PM. Winds will gradually subside this evening as the low pressure system over KS moves further east. Drier air aloft in advance of a upper level ridge to the west will spread into the CWA tonight and Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 5-10 degrees warmer with 60s and 70s forecast.
The Bermuda Ridge builds in Wednesday night into early Thursday keeping the coast dry as a weakening trough and front approaches from the west.
Tonight Through Thursday A pair of upper lows are moving through the midwest and Plains at this time. The latter low will be bringing a cold front through Arkansas tonight. We seem to be capped at this time but we remain very unstable with temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s and dew points in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure and drier air move into the state Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A weak and somewhat rare June cold front works south through the CWA this morning, stalling south of the border through Thursday. There remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the front this morning, although confidence in coverage is low to moderate, especially toward the lower RGV where a large cap was observed in the latest sounding.
On Thursday with ridge overhead, expect sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s.
The region will then be between the exiting system to the east and high pressure to the west Wednesday and Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s west to the lower 50s east, with high temperatures on Wednesday in the lower to mid 70s. We will start off Thursday with a surface to 500mb ridge set up to our west. At the surface the slowly exiting low will be over James Bay, Canada and large high pressure over the Southern Plains.
Mid-level ridge will strengthen over the area today. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s inland this afternoon with lows tonight in the low/mid 70s.
Otherwise high pressure will build over the Great Lakes toward the end of the week.
Temperatures should be slightly warmer today, with highs around 70 to 75.
Warmer, breezy, and mostly dry today, although a few showers will be possible along the Divide and over the higher terrain of Central and Southwest Montana.
Dry and Warmer. After a brief unseasonable cold front's interruption of this summer's heat yesterday, conditions will be more typical today.
Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air moves in, as well as clearing skies. but the southeast will have a chance to warm into the lower 90s ahead of the front. Tonight will see a little of that drier and cooler air as the temps drop into the 60s with northwesterly/northerly winds and mostly clear skies. /HJS/ After a cold front passes through the state today(Wednesday), the region will see a break from rain/storms and enter into a trend of pleasant weather.
Elsewhere, clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop, but they are several degrees warmer than this time yesterday at most locations due to the ongoing warm air advection. Some of the high-mountain valleys will most likely drop below freezing before sunrise, but should rebound quickly in the mid June sun. Afternoon highs will rebound nicely from yesterday, running around 10 degrees higher as warmer air moves in aloft and mixing heights increase. Tonight and tomorrow the upper ridge pushes eastward over the region allowing the warm up to continue.
As the low approaches the area and the potential for storms increases we will see MVFR CIGS with the potential for some MVFR VSBYS with any storms in the afternoon/evening. For this morning, winds will continue to gradually subside across eastern Wisconsin as low pressure moves away from the area. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure is expected to move into east-central Wisconsin later this afternoon, then move east of the area this evening. The showers and thunderstorms should come to an end tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
The area of low pressure was located near the Michigan Upper Peninsula around 4 AM CDT this morning moving in a north/northeast direction. Across the rest of the Northland, a weak cold front is slowly moving east through the region with scattered showers over northeastern MN as an area of strong upper level vorticity passes through the region.
Slight cooling starts by Thursday afternoon, especially along the coast as onshore breezes increase ahead of an incoming trough.
630 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: A cold front continues to pass through the state which will result in some gust up to 18-20kts at some sites mainly in the west(GLH, GWO). Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air moves in, as well as clearing skies. but the southeast will have a chance to warm into the lower 90s ahead of the front. Tonight will see a little of that drier and cooler air as the temps drop into the 60s with northwesterly/northerly winds and mostly clear skies. /HJS/ After a cold front passes through the state today(Wednesday), the region will see a break from rain/storms and enter into a trend of pleasant weather.
848 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front will support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return Thursday under building high pressure, with temperature returning to near average through the end of the week. The rest of the region, including the Pittsburgh metro area, should be located in the wake of the trough through early this afternoon as forecast soundings support weak mid-level subsidence largely inhibiting additional convective activity ahead of the approaching cold front. Nonetheless, instability will continue to increase as the negatively tilted Central CONUS trough and its associated sfc cold front tracks east, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region late this afternoon and tonight along with a line of thunderstorms. Highs outside of the higher terrain should range from the upper 80s to around 90, with heat indices again below advisory levels.
An upper level disturbance over the SRN Plains early this morning is predicted to rapidly lift NEWD/dissipate, as an upper high pressure system builds over the region tonight/Thursday. The drier conditions will contribute to cooler conditions tonight/early Thursday morning.
526 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Hot weather is expected today, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Thursday under building high pressure. The negatively tilted Central CONUS trough, and its associated sfc cold front, is progged to track east, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region late this afternoon and tonight along with a line of thunderstorms. Highs outside of the higher terrain should range from the upper 80s to around 90, with heat indices again below advisory levels.
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front will support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return Thursday under building high pressure, with temperature returning to near average through the end of the week. The rest of the region, including the Pittsburgh metro area, should be located in the wake of the trough through early this afternoon as forecast soundings support weak mid-level subsidence largely inhibiting additional convective activity ahead of the approaching cold front. Nonetheless, instability will continue to increase as the negatively tilted Central CONUS trough and its associated sfc cold front tracks east, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region late this afternoon and tonight along with a line of thunderstorms. Highs outside of the higher terrain should range from the upper 80s to around 90, with heat indices again below advisory levels.
For this morning, winds will continue to gradually subside across eastern Wisconsin as low pressure moves away from the area. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure is expected to move into east-central Wisconsin later this afternoon, then move east of the area this evening. The showers and thunderstorms should come to an end tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
310 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Broad high pressure aloft will build over the Great Basin with a resulting moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Temperatures will be warmer today with warm advection pattern and resultant readings about 5-10 degrees higher than yesterday. Still, some northwest winds up to 20kt with decent mixing in the low levels.
Low pressure advancing from Iowa to Michigan today will swing a sharp cold front through the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Tonight high pressure over the Red River Valley will build eastward providing us with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions once the early evening storms exit. On Thursday, an upper trough axis runs north to south through the Ohio Valley. While at the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern Oklahoma/Texas border extends east through our region. Skies over southern Indiana and central Kentucky will remain mostly clear and dry as upper ridging begins slowly moving east towards us.
High pressure in place providing for a very weak pressure gradient, thus light/variable winds.
Pleasant day then setting up with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies in place through midday/early afternoon, and with temps expected in the 70s to around 80 across the lower elevations. Winds don't appear to be overly strong for much of today, however, lee troughing later today will bring a window of slightly stronger winds/gusts to far southern Colorado. Low to mid 30s may be reached briefly, and will keep on eye if temps look like they may inch closer to the freezing mark.