Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Nevertheless, these conditions will be sufficient for around or just below freezing temperatures for central and northern Indiana. Although freezing temperature are anticipated in Warren, Tippecanoe, Carroll, Clinton, Howard and Tipton counties, coordination with ag extension partners indicates the growing season hasn't progressed enough yet in these counties to warrant frost/freeze products. Across our southern counties, although 2-meter temperatures may be just above freezing, conditions are marginally supportive of frost since winds should be light enough for a near-ground layer at freezing.
Areas in the east and southeast may still warm into the lower 90s before sunset this evening. A cold front will propel across the forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. A cooler airmass will overrun the Panhandles tonight into tomorrow and much cooler temperatures are expected during the day. Model guidance deviates on just how cold the lower levels will be tomorrow, with the most aggressive guidance suggesting H850 temperatures may be near 0 C during peak heating tomorrow. Even though it may be cooler tomorrow, the continuous fire weather conditions will finally take a brief break due to the increased surface and low level moisture behind the front.
A portion of the main high will push across the western Dakotas by 12Z Saturday and shift across eastern ND Saturday afternoon with a ridge pushing across our forecast area and exiting to our east during the evening hours. The highest amounts are expected over north central South Dakota. A ridge of high pressure will be over the western Great Lakes as the next storm system pushes into the western Dakotas at the beginning of this period. Trends remain the same from previous forecast package in keeping the higher QPF/snow north of the CWA in North Dakota.
This will also lead to aforementioned gusty winds in the higher elevations as well. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 51 70 55 68 / 40 20 40 90 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 47 68 52 65 / 30 10 30 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 45 67 50 65 / 30 10 20 90 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 42 65 45 59 / 40 10 10 80 80.
Currently, zonal flow persists aloft, with an upper low anchored over portions of Quebec. Low level flow remains northerly, with surface ridging positioned over the northern Plains. Moisture advection in the low levels looks to be at a premium, with a cold front advancing across the southern Plains. It appears that the best overlap in the low humidity and gusty northwest winds will be across southwest Nebraska, and this area is being monitored for the potential for fire weather headlines.
A wind shift to west/northwest will push in during the morning hours Saturday, as high pressure builds into the region. Sheltered rural areas could see temperatures dip into the lower 30s, resulting in a somewhat higher chance for frost.
(Today and tonight) Today will just be one of those cool, dreary days as we flip the script from above-average to below-average temperatures with a cold front moving southeast of I-44 this morning. The cold front will continue to advance southeastward this morning with falling temperatures expected for locations ahead of the boundary. The highest (relative) probability for measurable rainfall will be across southeast Oklahoma. Given the limited insolation and northerly winds, opted to lean slightly toward the cooler end of probabilistic guidance (though not as cold as the NAM/HRWF/TTU WRF).
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across north-central Mexico will continue to provide a nearly zonal flow aloft across the southern plains today. a weak cold front is expected to move into north-central Texas this afternoon before stalling across south-central Texas tonight.
Upper level low offshore will move inland Saturday. Weak upper level ridge moving through Sunday.
Weak ridging builds in today with a little drier air moving over the area. There will still be enough moisture to allow for afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms across the central and southern zones with the highest chances south and inland. Another cold front and upper trough move into northern FL tonight, with the energy moving over the peninsula for Sunday as the boundary lingers over north FL.
344 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Ontario this morning with the trough axis passing across the area today. With this trough axis passing through today, this will help to keep the lake effect snow showers going and also add a diurnal component to them, especially inland by this afternoon. Airmass in the lowest levels is pretty dry and will have an inverted-v look to the soundings, so this should keep the lake effect snow showers in check. Starting off with the early week chances, low pressure system anchored to a longwave trough originating from near the Nunavut/Manitoba border will have skirted along the U.
134 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 A cold front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers tonight.
A cold front pushed south earlier today and was a bit stronger than previous forecast, both in terms of slightly faster timing and degree of cold advection behind it. The new forecast for Saturday is slightly cooler than previous forecast with mid 50s as a rule for afternoon highs. Saturday Night/early Sunday morning temperatures will be warmer thanks to a southeast wind 10 to 15 mph most of the night. Temperatures on Sunday will rebound nicely to the lower to mid 70s ahead of another cold front.
326 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Discussion/Marine - Some Flurries or Snow Showers Possible Today, Dry Easter An anomalously deep upper low north of Lake Superior today will drive a vorticity lobe through the region during midday, coincident with falling low level temps (-11C to -14C at 850mb) and perhaps some saturation of the DGZ north of I-96 (ie. For Easter Sunday, daytime temps will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, and model RH analysis reveals a good amount of sunshine through early to mid afternoon before high clouds move in.
Ahead of the trough, mid-level flow will strengthen, dragging in moisture from the south. We are also seeing strong signaling for isentropic ascent, which will provide the lift needed, while the passing trough will provide the focusing needed for rain and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms in south and central MO Sunday afternoon.
This will build low level ridging into the Northern and Central Plains, resulting in continued cool and dry northwesterly flow over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, which in turn will push yesterday's front even further south of the region. Enhanced moisture along and just upstream of the ridge axis will manifest as increasing mid and high clouds tonight, helping keep lows just above freezing. With the ridge to our east by tomorrow morning, generally southerly flow in all but the lowest levels will begin to usher deeper moisture back into the region, resulting in increasing cloudiness through the day. The clouds, coupled with easterly winds in the lowest levels, will conspire to keep temps even cooler than what we're expecting today, about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
133 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 For the 16/06Z TAF period, MVFR ceilings continue to expand across our airspace as moist low-level southerly flow persists ahead of a cold front to our north. VCSH and VCTS will become more likely as the cold front advances into the region later today with SHRA and TSRA more likely across our northern terminals in SW Arkansas. Additional southward progression of the front will expand showers and thunderstorms down to the I-20 sites by late afternoon through early evening before the cold front is expected to stall out along I-20.
Another cold night is in store for the area as high pressure builds in at the surface and winds become light. An upper ridge will build over the region on Saturday as an upper trough moves onshore over the Pacific northwest. Warmer air will begin to flow into the region from the south with high temperatures reaching the 40s over most of the area, but remaining in the 30s in the areas with snow cover over southwestern South Dakota. The upper trough and a surface cold front will cross the region Saturday night. Increased ascent and moisture associated with the upper trough will bring a good chance of precipitation on Saturday night, ending early Sunday.
High pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes tonight, which will end the snow across the north and allow skies to clear out across much of the region as winds become light. The high will shift east on Sunday, allowing for warmer temperatures to advect in from the south. An approaching low pressure system from the Plains will mean increasing clouds Sunday afternoon, although precipitation is expected to hold off until Sunday night. Highs Sunday are expected to range from the upper 30s across the lakeshore, to the lower to middle 40s inland away from Lake Michigan.
357 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Scattered showers today with a crossing cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Sunday under high pressure. A cold front will slowly cross the region today, exiting to the southeast by early evening. Noticeably cooler temperatures today with the showers, clouds and cold air advection. High pressure slowly builds in tonight and cold air advection will increase with the passing trough.
301 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Weak ridging will move through the area today into tonight which should bring quiet weather and winds that are not too strong. This is ahead of a deepening low pressure across ND. There also appears to be a good chance that surface temperatures will be near and a bit above freezing so barring any significant snowfall rates melting will limit accumulations as well. Farther west in central SD warm air will build in behind this trough of low pressure and a few spots may approach 60.
The cold front will likely slow and stall north and east of the Pecos River Valley during the afternoon, keeping much of the Permian Basin cooler, while everywhere else remains hot. Saturday morning temperatures will be a bit cooler with most locations falling into the mid 40s and low 50s.
Sunday will be drier and slightly warmer, but still below normal for mid April.
405 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Ontario this morning with the trough axis passing across the area today. With this trough axis passing through today, this will help to keep the lake effect snow showers going and also add a diurnal component to them, especially inland by this afternoon. Airmass in the lowest levels is pretty dry and will have an inverted-v look to the soundings, so this should keep the lake effect snow showers in check. Starting off with the early week chances, low pressure system anchored to a longwave trough originating from near the Nunavut/Manitoba border will have skirted along the U.
Cold air advection continues for Saturday, all though our temperatures will be slightly warmer. Some guidance is suggesting a bit warmer, but snowpack and cold air advection should keep us a bit cooler than expected. There remains a decent signal for this to occur somewhere along the track with the highest chances per NBM across the Devils Lake basin around 50 to 60 percent but individual ensemble members show the track could still be as far south as the I94 corridor.
Otherwise, overnight lows should be well above freezing with a mix of upper 30s to mid 40s across the FA.
A chilly weekend in store as upper trough over ern ON deepens sewd through srn QB sunday.
Otherwise, generally a drier and cooler regime today.
The high temperature in Bismarck has only reached 24 so far setting the pace to break the previous record cold high of 32 set in 2011. Saturday, an upper level ridge will settle over the Northern Plains bringing forth westerly flow to the surface. Easter Sunday a short wave trough will trek across the Northern Plains bringing precipitation into North Dakota. Model soundings show ample lift in the mid levels as the low moves approaches the state. A front associated with the low will bring pressure rises leading to gusty winds.
1134 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Highlights: 1) Chances for storms in SE KS this eve/tonight 2) Cooler on Saturday in southern KS 3) Chances for showers/storms Sunday Changes: 1) Decreased precipitation chances in SE KS this evening 2) Increased precipitation chances on Sunday A wrapped up low pressure system remains over Ontario with a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Panhandles. Cooler air associated with this front have kept daytime temperatures in northwest Kansas in the lower 50s while far southern Kansas has been able to reach around 80 degrees. The cold front will continue to track southeast into the evening. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall to below freezing in north central Kansas. Cooler air behind the front should drop temperatures on Saturday to around 60 degrees with high pressure overhead.
1257 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Scattered showers today with a crossing cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Sunday under high pressure. A cold front will slowly cross the region today, exiting to the southeast by early evening. Noticeably cooler temperatures today with the showers, clouds and cold air advection. High pressure slowly builds in tonight and cold air advection will increase with the passing trough.
152 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Approaching low pressure and associated cold front will provide increasing clouds and rain showers tonight. Cool high pressure will build into the region from late Saturday through Sunday bringing partly sunny skies and below normal temperatures.
Otherwise, it's fairly benign with a continuation of seasonably cool conditions reinforced by Canadian high pressure on Saturday. Temperatures will remain similar to those of recent days and below average, with cold lows tonight from the mid 20s to the lower 30s highs Saturday from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Discussion: Saturday night will be dry and chilly with sub-freezing lows many areas, especially north of Interstate 80. Attention then turns to the passage of a weak cold front and mid-level trough for Sunday.
Low pressure deepens during the day on Sunday, with a progressive front bringing WAA ahead of the system and strong CAA behind. Where the band sets up and how intense snowfall rates occur will dictate the highest snowfall rates. Ground temperatures are cooler from recent cold and established snowpack already in place will allow for the snow to accumulate and stick instead of melting.
Currently watching a warm front slide eastward across the area, resulting in fairly widespread showers and storms.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Westerly upper winds are over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and a cold front is moving southward towards the area.
1146 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Scattered showers today with a crossing cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected Sunday under high pressure. A cold front will slowly cross the region today, exiting to the southeast by early evening. Noticeably cooler temperatures today with the showers, clouds and cold air advection. High pressure slowly builds in tonight and cold air advection will increase with the passing trough.
335 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Mid and upper-level heights will gradually build overhead today while at the surface, a ridge of cool high pressure builds into the region from the much colder northern Plains. Fire danger will remain in the High to Very High categories today and likely again on Sunday. This will keep cooler highs east of the Missouri River where readings should top out in the 40's under cloud cover and upper 50's to near 60's possible across our western counties where clouds are expected to clear out sooner.
another cool night is expected across the region with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 20s to start the day Saturday. continue to have some small pops in the forecast as an upper level trough crosses the region. expect brief ridging aloft to start the work week with temperatures remaining near to slightly below seasonal norms.
Similar to yesterday, should see lows fall into the low to mid 20s. Look for temperatures to be a touch warmer Saturday as upper level ridging gradually builds overhead. Currently have afternoon highs ranging from the low 40s north of I-90 to upper 40s in areas south. Similar to yesterday, should see lows fall into the low to mid 20s. Look for temperatures to be a touch warmer Saturday as upper level ridging gradually builds overhead. Currently have afternoon highs ranging from the low 40s north of I-90 to upper 40s in areas south. MVFR cloud deck has moved south to near the Highway 14 corridor.
The stubborn upper low to the east will finally be dislodged eastward as ridging briefly builds back into the region.
Some clouds persist in our south, likely helping to keep it a little warmer down there this morning. High pressure continues to build over the Northern Plains, which will slowly move through our north tonight. Ridge builds over the Rockies today, leaving us in relatively strong northwest flow before it pushes out and over the Plains. We are looking towards another cool day today, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in our north to the low 50s in our south. Later in the day, high pressure starts to settle over the region. High pressure slowly slides through our north tomorrow night, with resultant light and variable winds.
209 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 High pressure will continue to build in today and suppress better moisture to our south. However, convection should remain mainly to our south across Arkansas and the lower Mississippi Valley region. Tonight should be quiet with high pressure present.
1050 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 A weak inverted lower tropospheric trough is across the Straits of Florida. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes today through Sunday.
651 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures are on the way for most of the area today, as a cold front moves through the area. Highs today will range from the mid and upper 60s north of Interstate 20, to the lower 90s prior to frontal passage this afternoon along the I-10 corridor. Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the mid and upper 40s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 50s across southern counties.
Further south lows should only drop into the lower 50s. However, rain chances will return early Sunday morning, as a longwave trough moves quickly from the Pacific northwest into the Upper Midwest, dragging the frontal boundary to our south northward and into the region during the afternoon hours.
A brief high pressure system will move over the area today, causing clearing skies this evening and overnight. A small high pressure will move over the upper Midwest this evening into overnight. A rain and snow mix is expected with this low, with snow totals only around an inch for the weekend.
The east anchor low of an omega block remains over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, but the block is breaking down as the west anchor low is now undercutting the ridge. There will be a break in the action Saturday night into Easter Sunday as a short wave ridge moves through the area. Of particular concern is the possibility of clouds, which would keep conditions warmer with a much weaker inversion, if any at all.
752 AM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Upper ridging centered aloft Mexico sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico to FL while a low/trough meanders over/east of the Bahamas. Atlantic high pressure ridges across the state and out over the Gulf with a relaxed gradient. High pressure resides across the waters through Sun as a cold front moves into north FL then continues south over the waters Sun night and Mon. High pressure builds in behind the front.
The warmest days will reach the mid and upper 90s for the lower deserts early in the week. Then cooler, slightly below normal temperatures are becoming more likely by the end of the week with the next significant dip in the jetstream. The warmup will continue however as H5 heights continue to increase today followed by stronger high pressure on Sun-Mon. Highs will continue their climb through the low 90s on Sun, with a high of 93 for Phoenix on Easter Sunday.
(Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures are on the way for most of the area today, as a cold front moves through the area. Highs today will range from the mid and upper 60s north of Interstate 20, to the lower 90s prior to frontal passage this afternoon along the I-10 corridor. Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the mid and upper 40s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 50s across southern counties.
The warmest days will reach the mid and upper 90s for the lower deserts early in the week. Then cooler, slightly below normal temperatures are becoming more likely by the end of the week with the next significant dip in the jetstream. The warmup will continue however as H5 heights continue to increase today followed by stronger high pressure on Sun-Mon. Highs will continue their climb through the low 90s on Sun, with a high of 93 for Phoenix on Easter Sunday. For the midweek period Clusters analysis favors dry WSW flow aloft between a NE PAC troughing and locally flattened high pressure. Current forecast highs look to drop to near or slightly below normal, in the low-mid 80s as H5 heights dip to a Grand Ensemble mean of ~565 dam, although with substantial model spread and uncertainty.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 51 71 55 64 / 30 10 40 90 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 47 68 51 61 / 20 10 20 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 72 45 68 50 61 / 20 10 20 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 43 65 45 55 / 30 10 10 90 80.
602 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Weak ridging will move through the area today into tonight which should bring quiet weather and winds that are not too strong. This is ahead of a deepening low pressure across ND. There also appears to be a good chance that surface temperatures will be near and a bit above freezing so barring any significant snowfall rates melting will limit accumulations as well. Farther west in central SD warm air will build in behind this trough of low pressure and a few spots may approach 60.
931 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Initial cold front has pushed south of the mid TN Valley into the central half of AL this Sat morning. Otherwise, with cloud cover beginning to diminish/sct in some parts of the area, afternoon highs look to climb predom into the lower/mid 70s for most spots, as sfc flow remains out of the S/SW. Further south lows should only drop into the lower 50s. However, rain chances will return early Sunday morning, as a longwave trough moves quickly from the Pacific northwest into the Upper Midwest, dragging the frontal boundary to our south northward and into the region during the afternoon hours.
There will be a break in the action tonight into Easter Sunday as a short wave ridge moves through the area. Sunday morning will be another cold one, and Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings may again be necessary for portions of Douglas County and the coast, where sub-freezing temperatures are more atypical this time of year. Of particular concern is the possibility of clouds, which would keep conditions warmer with a much weaker inversion, if any at all.
Another cold front will move through southeast Idaho later today with breezy conditions expected tonight and Sunday.
Brief warm-up for Sunday with a remarkable temperature gradient as a warm front quickly precedes a cold front on its heals.
424 AM MDT Sat Apr 16 2022 A vigorous cold and wet low pressure circulation is projected to spin northward across north central Idaho and western Montana today through Sunday. The cold air associated with this low pressure will be sufficient to bring snow levels down to valley elevations (2000 feet) tonight through Sunday morning. For some areas, such as the Flathead and Mission Valleys, the impact from snow will be closely related to the timing of maximum precipitation from the low pressure circulation.