Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weak wind shift associated with the quasi-stationary front is currently located near the US80/I-85 corridor, while the lower dewpoints have only made it to the northern border of the forecast area. Visibility trends will be monitored in case a mention of fog needs to be added to the HWO or an advisory becomes necessary, but the low clouds keep confidence on the low side. The front will drift northward as a warm front through the day today as the mid-level flow becomes west- southwesterly in response to a weak trough with embedded MCV over Louisiana and rising heights over the northern Gulf. Isentropic lift/the warm front and limited daytime heating will be the main drivers of precipitation through the day.
112 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Building high pressure will provide dry weather into Thursday, with a chance of rain extending through the weekend.
Lows remain very muggy, in the low and mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
410 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure resides over the Ohio river valley presently, providing plenty of clear skies and light winds to the region. As the high shifts north and east today, some moisture will try to work northward across central/eastern TN. The model consensus is for the period to begin with an upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains with ridging extending into the Rockies and portions of the Pacific Northwest and a trough encompassing much of the Central to Eastern Conus.
The highest forecast rainfall totals continue to be across parts of southeast Texas where significant rainfall totals have accumulated over the past few days. 6" is across the region with the highest values near the disturbance. Rain chances will gradually decrease from Wednesday through the weekend as the disturbance move east and weak high pressure builds in.
652 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to provide fair weather across our area today and tonight as it moves slowly east. Showers are possible across the area Thursday night as a cold front approaches.
443 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central ND, with cold front extending southwestward to north central WY. Cold front will slowly slide southeast across the area through the morning hours, reaching southern portions of the CWA by early afternoon, then stalling out from parts of east central WY to southeast SD later this afternoon and evening.
Weak low pressure is noted along the front in southeast GA but otherwise variable to light southerly low level flow.
626 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania the next couple of days, then push off the east coast late in the week.
225 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 100 PM CDT High pressure centered over west central Illinois this afternoon will be in control, continuing the quiet weather conditions as the high shifts slowly east on Wednesday.
The thermodynamic profile depicted in model forecast soundings may support isolated to scattered diurnal convection this afternoon across northern Oklahoma where mid-level temperatures are cooler than further south. Weak positive 500 hPa height anomalies will persist just to our southwest associated with low amplitude mean ridging. Veering/strengthening low level flow will move deeper moisture northwestward back onto the High Plains through the day.
At the surface, dewpoints were mostly in the 40s and 50s with a few spots in the lower 60s.
Additional showers are possible over far northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead late tonight when low pressure approaches from the west, and the elevated lifts north and east as a warm front. The low-level jet will be somewhat weak, but it could develop showers north of the elevated warm front. Overnight lows should be in the lower and middle 50s. This low will bring modest large-scale forcing for ascent across the Northland. Southerly flow ahead of the low will bring greater atmospheric moisture into the region, with precipitable water values increasing to about 1. Also, a lake breeze response to approaching low pressure will bring even cooler conditions to the Lake Superior shoreline. The GFS/ECMWF agree now that the upper level will feature a short wave trof with a potent vort max moving through the base of the trof crossing the forecast area.
/issued 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017/ The area is under the edge of a weak upper ridge over Arizona and New Mexico with west to northwest flow aloft. Chances of rain decrease tonight and will mainly be present south of I-10 and across the higher terrain tomorrow. Temperatures increase tomorrow closer to normal values as the upper ridge becomes more centered over the region and winds return to the south. Temperatures will mostly be in the 90s across the area except the higher terrain on Thursday with the upper ridge over the region.
1024 mb high pressure over central IL and extending eastward into WV, will slip east into the mid Atlantic states by dawn Thu, and continue fair weather through tonight with fairly light winds. Temperatures currently in the mid 50s to around 60F will climb into the lower 80s for highs this afternoon, a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Increasing clouds from the west during the day Thu and have a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thu afternoon from I-57 west as a cold front moves into eastern IA and nw MO. Highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday and dewpoints elevating into the low to mid 60s.
426 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Building high pressure will provide dry weather into Thursday, with a chance of rain extending through the weekend.
Ahead of the trough, a surface cold front was moving southeast across the western Dakotas and this feature is forecast to move into northeastern Nebraska by late this afternoon.
658 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure exits early tonight. High pressure continues to dominate the area, bringing mostly dry conditions, and seasonal temperatures. Temperatures should reach the low to mid 80s in the lowlands, and high 70s in the mountains, with dry conditions dominating. Humidity will be on the increase in the short term period, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the region. High pressure will bring about a VFR day today, once the fog is gone. Surface flow will remain light and variable per exiting high pressure, while light and variable flow aloft today becomes light south tonight.
Cloud bases were around 8000-10,000 ft with a modest amount of dry air in the low- levels. However, observations showed that it wasn't taking long to overcome the low-level dry air, thus helping to support some very light showers. With north central KS remaining under the cloud cover for most of today, have continued to trend a bit cooler with afternoon high temperatures likely only reaching into the mid 70s. As a result, expect low temperatures tonight to range from the low to mid 60s from north to south across the CWA.
A few showers are on going early this morning across SW Montana within the vicinity of where a weak cold frontal boundary exists. The presence of this boundary across SW and West Central Montana early this morning has kept the atmosphere fairly mixed with temperatures in many places considerably warmer than 24 hours ago.
547 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will build in through Wednesday, then pass east on Thursday.
High temperatures today will range from lower 90s near the coast to the low 100's inland. Some of the tropical moisture from Franklin should reach the lower Texas coast tonight resulting in scattered convection, especially across the eastern portions of the area.
Also adjusted the low temperatures up a little in the east.
Satellite imagery shows some showers and thunderstorms development across the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico and there is a hint of a weak disturbance moving across the southern Rockies.
445 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Building high pressure will provide dry weather into Thursday, with a chance of rain extending through the weekend.
212 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure centered over Ohio will keep dry weather across the region tonight and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday in the humid southeast flow ahead of developing low pressure.
The latest surface map shows high pressure centered over IA/IL this afternoon. This high will shift east over the next 24 hours and the trend will be for drier air to filter into most of the area through tonight into early Wednesday. Lows tonight will be below normal and range from the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. The only exception might be across the far southeastern sections of the CWA, closer to that trough and best moisture. However, the inverted trough weakens by Thursday and the best moisture will likely shift east of us by afternoon.
Thunderstorms should develop across the High Plains and develop into an MCS as they track southeast across western Kansas Thursday evening.
323 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A large area of high pressure will slowly move across the region today and tonight before exiting off the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday. Thursday, weak low pressure will move east through the Tennessee Valley as another low moves into the western Great Lakes. Today and tonight high pressure will dominate the region. Thursday the high will drift off the east coast and low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes. Moisture will increase across the region, especially the eastern half of the area through Thursday ahead of the low.
1258 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure centered over central Illinois early this evening will drift slowly off to our east by Wednesday morning bringing a continuation of the pleasant weather conditions to the region. Another nice day shaping up on Wednesday as the fair weather system continues to move away from our area allowing winds to turn more into a southeasterly direction bringing afternoon highs into the lower 80s over most of our area. High pressure will slowly shift east of Illinois through tomorrow, but it will remain our primary influence on the sensible weather. Highs tomorrow will rebound nicely into the lower 80s, as fair weather cumulus develop from late morning through the afternoon.
Tomorrow, a cold front moves through the area, bringing us a better chance for rain and thunderstorms. Despite the lower PoPs, a strengthening upper level jet will make for increased deep layer shear.
High pressure will remain centered south of the Four Corners with an old boundary running across its northern periphery along which convection will be focused.
318 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Upper ridging will dominate our weather over the next few days leading to less of a rain chance and increasing temperatures. As the upper ridge centers over the area late this week, subsidence will squash pretty much any chance for rain. An exception will be across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains down to the Big Bend where isolated convection will be possible each afternoon. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move south possibly reaching our region late this weekend.
Upper level low sitting just off the coast will continue to bring a threat of thunderstorms to mainly interior mountain locations through today. The upper low is gradually weakening into a baggy trough but at least one more day of enhanced convection is expected.
610 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania the next couple of days, then push off the east coast late in the week.
Again there are two 925mb troughs that are in about the same place as before. The one we will be concerned with stretches from the low across coastal Louisiana into coastal Mississippi. The other is from the lower Atchafalaya basin through New Orleans.
Some convection allowing models are showing a broken line of discrete cells just ahead of the weak front/trough 21-03z where a narrow ribbon of 60+ dewpoints may elevate MLCAPEs into the 1000-2000 j/kg range.
This pattern will result in dry and warmer weather as we head into the next 24 hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be a little below normal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will keep dry weather and seasonal temperatures over the region through Thursday.
/issued 318 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017/ Upper ridging will dominate our weather over the next few days leading to less of a rain chance and increasing temperatures. As the upper ridge centers over the area late this week, subsidence will squash pretty much any chance for rain. An exception will be across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains down to the Big Bend where isolated convection will be possible each afternoon. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move south possibly reaching our region late this weekend.
Dry boundary layer will promote well-mixed conditions favoring another round of overachieving temps reaching the low 80s. Thursday will represent a transition day as the approaching wave shunts high pressure to the east and southerly return flow commences.
High pressure will continue to our northeast and allow an inverted trough to develop under it over the Appalachians. This trough should serve as the focus for a few showers and maybe a storm late in the afternoon near Lake Cumberland, but the rest of the region should be dry. Moisture will continue to advect northward tonight, as that inverted trough heads northward. Convergence will weaken along the boundary, but with cooler temperatures aloft, expect more coverage of storms in the afternoon compared to today.
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central ND, with cold front extending southwestward to north central WY. Cold front will slowly slide southeast across the area through the morning hours, reaching southern portions of the CWA by early afternoon, then stalling out from parts of east central WY to southeast SD later this afternoon and evening.
The closed low off NW California will remain mostly stationery today. On Thursday, upstream long wave trough is forecast to move inside 140W and this will help to eject the closed low eastward.
Sufficient warm advection ahead of the cold frontal boundary across northwest North Dakota seems to be supporting a weak MCS across Central South Dakota that has expanded a large stratiform rain region across south central North dakota this evening. However as the short wave trough to the northwest continues to approach expect better dynamics and VM overnight that will support scattered thunderstorms tonight. This favors slightly below normal temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s.
1205 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Based off current radar trends, it appears as though the center of the region of low pressure has shifted eastward slightly this evening. Otherwise, occasional showers have circulated around the low from the north, periodically moving into the vicinity of UTS and CXO. Rain chances should also be decreasing through the rest of the week with progs of an upper level ridge building in from the west.
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure was located over northern Illinois early this morning. Dry weather is expected through this evening as a retreating high will keep the low levels dry. A long wave trof of low pressure will remain in place over eastern North America with west-northwest flow aloft over the Midwest.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge pushing back over Texas from the west. As the subtropical ridge builds back to the east, increased subsidence and decreased cloud cover will allow temperatures to warm.
352 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Quiet weather expected today and Thursday with high pressure in place. The next storm system moves through this weekend with cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure at the surface, zonal flow aloft and a very dry air mass will combine to create very quiet weather conditions across central NY and ne PA today and Thursday.
The upper trough currently over srn Saskatchewan, Canada will dig sewd to MN by 12z. In the lower levels a 25-30 kt swly LLJ will develop providing warm advection and moisture transport. In addition there is a left front quad of the upper jet rounding base of mid/upper level trough that could add a little more punch should that instability reload. Any storms could linger into Thursday evening before cold front and influence of mid level wave shift off to the east.
420 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure exits early tonight. High pressure continues to dominate the area, bringing mostly dry conditions, and seasonal temperatures. Temperatures should reach the low to mid 80s in the lowlands, and high 70s in the mountains, with dry conditions dominating. Humidity will be on the increase in the short term period, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the region. High pressure will bring about a VFR day on Wednesday, once the fog is gone. Surface flow will remain light and variable per high pressure, while light northeast flow aloft overnight gradually veers around to the south Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will keep dry weather over central Indiana through Thursday.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will weaken through tonight, as a mid to upper level trough of low pressure moves west northwest from the Southern Bahamas and into South Florida. The mid to upper level trough of low pressure will continue to move west northwest into the Gulf of Mexico late this week, allowing for high pressure to build back into South Florida.
Water vapor imagery shows the weak short wave trough moving off the Upper Texas coast with a mid level trough axis extending westward into the Mid-Coast region.
313 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Low pressure over northern California will produce a greater potential for thunderstorms today with some storms becoming severe with possible flash flooding.
An upper ridge will stay over the offshore waters today and move slowly over Western Washington Thursday, for continued fair and warm weather.
Also adjusted the low temperatures up a little in the east. A trough remains over southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes region, while weak ridging persists over the southwestern CONUS. On Wednesday night, a front approaches the High Plains from the north.
GFS and the GEFS Plumes are indicating some good rain but have the highest rainfall amounts and the greatest MCS potential to the southwest of the CWA while the NAM strongly indicates the highest rainfall amounts and MCS potential is directly over the CWA.
Tonight Through Thursday Some isolated showers or a thunderstorm possible, mainly across southeast AR, through this evening in the wake of a cold front positioned south of the area. This sharp change in direction can be contributed to northeasterly flow provided by high pressure centered north of the state in combination with an area of low pressure along the front near Yazoo City early this afternoon.
258 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure resides over the Ohio river valley presently, providing plenty of clear skies and light winds to the region. As the high shifts north and east today, some moisture will try to work northward across central/eastern TN.
432 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Another small step toward warmer and drier today. Thursday and Thursday night, a moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over Colorado with the ridge to the south and west, and a trough over the upper midwest.
148 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania the next couple of days, maintaining dry conditions through at least Thursday evening.
This feature is ejecting south of a deeper upper low over the Northern Plains as it pushes eastward.
1106 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 No major changes in the near-time expected as the 500mb height pattern keeps high pressure centered south of the Four Corners over the next couple of days. NCEP ensembles in good agreement on center of high pressure amplifying and shifting northeastward on Thursday allowing for slightly warmer temperatures and an increasing moisture tap.
129 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will build in through Wednesday, then pass east on Thursday. Low pressure will pass southeast of Long Island Thursday night.
It will take some time to build CAPE across the area as high pressure gradually departs to the southeast, but it looks like we will build weak CAPE as we go through the afternoon hours. The main trough axis then dives into the region. Low pressure tracks across northern Wisconsin pulling a cold front across the area on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front mainly during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Also, cyclonic flow on the back of the high will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area during the daytime hours.
Max temps will creep upward a few degf with more sun, though readings will remain cooler than average most locations.
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will build in through Wednesday, then pass east on Thursday.
50 inches/, in addition to a cold frontal boundary draped from southeast TX northeast to across south central MS providing frontogenetical support. The UL low is progged to gradually push eastward from southeast TX to across southern LA throughout today, whilst the cold front washes out and retreats as a warm front across the region /winds veer to an upslope/southeasterly component/. Slight west- northwest flow aloft will veer further to the northwest tomorrow courtesy of the Desert southwest UA ridge shifting eastward to across central TX by late week.
High pressure will remain centered over southern parts of the CONUS.
A weak upper low is moving west along the northern coast of Cuba. This is in response to a broad area of weak subsidence and ribbon of drier mid level air on the western edge of an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Tomorrow will see a noted increase in rain chances from I-4 south as the upper trough approaches southern Florida. As a deep moist airmass moves in over the southern half of the area, weak lift associated with the low, and convergence along seabreezes should set the stage for fairly widespread convective coverage and will introduce likely PoPs for areas south of the I-4 corridor.
207 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania the next couple of days, maintaining dry conditions through at least Thursday evening.
A cold front has pushed through the forecast area and this will produce north to northeast winds today. High temperatures will be cooler, but a dry airmass will counteract that somewhat. Confined PoPs over the higher terrain and in the favored upslope zones. Thursday will be a little warmer as mid level heights rise. PoPs will again be confined to the higher terrain and upslope locations, as that is where cape was located. Upper level ridge to our west will begin to break down and move east at the end of the work week.
In the upper levels, a trough to the north and west of the forecast area was helping to generate some weak Q-G forcing across our forecast area. A weak cold front will remain stalled just north of our forecast area for the next few days as the system slowly pulls eastward. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
This pattern, with a lingering upper level low pressure off of the northern California coast, continues to support a relatively deep marine layer over the region. Overall, little change is forecast today with temperatures near to slightly warmer than those yesterday across the interior as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest and allows temperatures aloft to warm a bit. The blocking pattern aloft is forecast to break down by the upcoming weekend as a more organized mid/upper level trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska toward the Pacific Northwest. With that, some locations near the coast may actually see daytime temperatures trend warmer while inland areas experience a cooling trend.