Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/ Minor changes to the grids with higher temperatures along the front, raised a couple of the western areas highs, however, those have already occurred as the cold front is starting to move through the western parts of the area. Cold front is wide and northwest winds won't happen till this afternoon, grids seems on target for this. The assoicated cold front is moving through the Red River Valley and headed toward the Mid-South. The cold front will race east entering NE AR by mid morning and exiting NE MS by early this evening.
/issued 340 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/ A cold front has pushed into the northern Texas Panhandle and will continue to move south through the day, eventually clearing the southern counties shortly after mid-day. Highs will be about 10 degrees cooler across the Caprock but about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday across the Rolling Plains where skies will be clear through the day and sunshine will offset the cold air advection.
A strong cold front has pushed across the CWA this morning with temperatures falling several degrees as the northwest winds increased. Of note, it stopped snowing in Mobridge around midnight, and their 3 AM observation still suggest blowing snow with visibility below 2SM.
1130 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 MVFR ceilings in place in marine layer advection well ahead of arctic cold front.
1117 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Current satellite shows an upper level low and its attendant frontal system moving through the CWA this morning. High pressure will build into the region allowing the CAA to return. The high pressure system that is moving into the region will create plenty of subsidence which will allow the skies to clear and bring the sun back. If the clouds are more prominent than expected, temperatures could be a little cooler.
A persistent band of clouds has developed, extending from the northern Black Hills northwestward into south eastern Montana, along the boundary between the warmer air to the west and the colder airmass to the east. Windy conditions over western South Dakota will gradually diminish during the late afternoon and early evening as cold high pressure builds southward into the Dakotas.
1109 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 The main concerns in the short term will revolve around a cold front that is moving through the area early this morning and the hazards associated with it. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop quickly as strong CAA will affect the area. This will drop temperatures quickly this morning with all locations moving below freezing by noon. With temperatures dropping so quickly there will be the potential for flash freezing of any wet roads or other surfaces. In addition, winds will be very strong behind the cold front with most locations gusting out of the NW to 30 to 40 mph. Tonight winds will subside somewhat as high pressure resides across the Plains.
where the temps are freezing or lower. Elsewhere light snow was falling in portions of central Oregon around the Bend area and southward into La Pine and this should persist before temps slowly climb above freezing later. Elsewhere temps were either hovering around the freezing mark or slightly warmer and liquid pcpn is expected.
142 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Cold front pushing into far western TN at this time. 850 mb temps will drop through the day and with caa continuing at the sfc, look for highs to stay in the lower to mid 30s, upper 30s to near 40 far south.
09z surface analysis had 1038mb high pushing the cold front well south and east of the CWA.
Also the morning sounding showed the freezing level at 5100 feet, which is an indicator that warmer air mass is already moving into the area. The concern for road snow of the higher passes is low with not much more than an additional inch expected for places like Diamond Lake and Crater Lake. A cold front will produce strong gales and very steep building seas through Saturday. Seas on Sunday diminish but remain high and steep with weak high pressure briefly moving into the waters.
811 AM PST Sat Jan 18 2020 After a chilly start to the day, building high pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring warmer weather through Sunday.
Cold front has pushed through KCLL and will continue to push south this afternoon. Ceilings and visibility along the coast should improve with the passing of the cold front. Cold front has pushed through College Station and very close to a Brenham to Huntsville line currently.
Cooler air continues to move in behind a cold front. The highest wind chills values on Sunday will be around 10 N to the upper 20s S.
Downslope winds have held temperatures in the NE TN/SW VA areas to the lower 40s, so freezing rain will not be an issue there. Low cigs in the IFR/MVFR range will persis through much of the night after the rain exits, then some clearing/lifting of cigs is expected tomorrow morning behind a cold front.
The cold front that moved through overnight has brought colder air to West Central Texas, keeping temperatures at 1 pm in the upper 40s/low 50s in the Big Country, low to upper 50s in the Concho Valley and Heartland, and upper 50s/low 60s in the I-10 corridor. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s.
1038 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 A dirty ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Great Basin today with dry northwesterly flow persisting across eastern Utah and western Colorado. 700mb temperatures of -4 to -10 degrees C will settle overhead in the wake of yesterday's trough, resulting in daytime highs some 4 to 8 degrees cooler, but even less so across the southern valleys. The high will continue to build on Sunday allowing the dry and quiet weather to persist. Sunday night will see the 700mb high pressure circulation drift east across the Western Slope.
Currently, deep area of low pressure continues to spin over the Western Great Lakes region, maintaining a tight pressure gradient across North Dakota and Minnesota. An upgrade for some areas to a wind chill warning not out of the question, though it appears the majority of locations remain warmer than negative 40F.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Conditions to improve this evening as clearing line marches southeast across the region behind a cold front. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph expected to bring in much colder air overnight with morning lows forecast to fall to near freezing areawide. High temperatures on Sunday to climb into the lower 50s. Otherwise, under mostly clear skies and light winds temperatues to fall into the upper 20s across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas and to around freezing elsewhere across the ArkLaTex.
Have continued to go on the low end of guidance for temperatures Sunday night, but we may need to trend lower.
The main slug of rain/freezing rain will exit to the east around 5pm. Wind gusts of up to 45 MPH are forecast along the ridges, and up to 35 MPH elsewhere. Elected not to hoist a Wind Advisory along the ridges given marginal momentum transport potential as noted on BUFKIT soundings, and inter- office collaboration led to this same conclusion.
437 PM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 High pressure will build across the western states this weekend resulting in a warming trend and a return to above normal temperatures. There is dry zonal flow aloft along the base of a strong ridge building across the western CONUS with a low pressure anomaly from the Great Lakes SWD.
Nice weather will continue for the weekend as high pressure moves over the area.
High pressure building over the West Coast will result in dry and seasonably cool weather conditions through the weekend.
Winds will be light in all areas except above timberline and over the higher ridges in the foothills where gusts around 40 mph can still be expected. The exception to that may be a few mid level clouds and even a chance of a flurry or two (similar to today) over the higher mountain peaks. Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer than today with more sunshine.
Dry and warmer conditions continue through Sunday with locally gusty winds over eastern Ventura County and northern Los Angeles County.
The main slug of rain/freezing rain has exited the region, with scattered to isolated light rain showers left behind. Temperatures continue to warm in the strong southwest flow ahead of the cold front and wind gusts are intensifying. Wind gusts of up to 45 MPH are forecast along the ridges, and up to 35 MPH elsewhere. Elected not to hoist a Wind Advisory along the ridges given marginal momentum transport potential as noted on BUFKIT soundings, and inter- office collaboration led to this same conclusion.
Area of rain showers moving across the region ahead of the cold front. Wind gusts of up to 45 MPH are forecast along the ridges, and up to 35 MPH elsewhere. Elected not to hoist a Wind Advisory along the ridges given marginal momentum transport potential as noted on BUFKIT soundings, and inter- office collaboration led to this same conclusion.
Decreasing winds a little faster than earlier thinking likely contributed to the cooler temperatures as well. After perusing latest short-term mesoscale guidance which was showing temperatures a couple of degrees cooler and wind speeds a bit higher, have expanded Wind Chill Advisory a bit south from earlier.
so lowered the low temp in the northwest about one degree.
346 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 The cold front is just about through the entire Mid-South at this is being written. The north surface winds along with northwest flow aloft will allow the region to be below freezing--it has been a while since most areas in the Mid-South have been below freezing. The northwest flow aloft is due to a ridge building in the western US and the trough, associated with the cold front, moving to the east.
Sunday stays cold, not rising above freezing at all during the day, but those winds do die down overnight bottoming out to gusts in the 20s of mph. Upper low pressure system continues to pinwheel over the Northern Plains sending lobes of vorticity from northwest to the east of our area over the next few days. The second episode comes Sunday into Sunday night as a trough moves south through Michigan focusing the lake effect snow band likely into a single band. Cold air continues during the work week as a moisture starved clipper system dives south out of Canada with strong 1040 mb high pressure on its heels.
534 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Skies have begun to clear from north to south in the wake of today's cold front. VFR conditions expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the state. 3PM surface analysis shows the cold front bisecting Houston and stretching along US 59/I-69 from Victoria to Houston and then to Cleveland. The cold front should reach the coast by around 6PM and further push convection into the Gulf. Sea fog has eroded over Galveston Bay and that should not be a problem once the cold front pushes through the area. Tomorrow will be much cooler and drier than it has been with low temperatures in the 40s and high temperatures in the 50s. A cold front should reach the coast after 6PM and further purge sea fog from the area.
3PM surface analysis shows the cold front bisecting Houston and stretching along US 59/I-69 from Victoria to Houston and then to Cleveland. The cold front should reach the coast by around 6PM and further push convection into the Gulf. Sea fog has eroded over Galveston Bay and that should not be a problem once the cold front pushes through the area. Tomorrow will be much cooler and drier than it has been with low temperatures in the 40s and high temperatures in the 50s. A cold front should reach the coast after 6PM and further purge sea fog from the area.
102 PM PST Sat Jan 18 2020 Building high pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring warmer weather through Sunday.
Behind this line of storms and associated cold front, conditions have returned to VFR.
349 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 FXUS64 KLIX 182143 AFDLIX National Weather Service New Orleans LA 343 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 For today, last hurrah of warm temperatures currently ongoing before a much cooler period comes in with the front currently in northwest Louisiana moving towards the southeast. Behind the front, temperatures have already plummeted into the low 50s. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with cooler temperatures and drier conditions.
An amplifying H500 ridge sets up over the Rockies early in the period, shifting over the northern tier by Wed morning.
With low and mid level gradients progged to slowly decrease, as well as the 850/700 mb Craig to Casper height gradients, we may be able to cancel the High Wind Warning this afternoon. Expect a slow warming trend as the ridge aloft builds across the Great Basin States, helping our flow aloft to turn more north northwest. Although heights aloft rise, temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous night in most locations due to less wind and cloud cover. Quite a quiescent day expected with a high amplitude ridge aloft over our forecast area.
Short wave ridging will continue into Sunday with passing high clouds. Mid level clouds will be building on Sunday as we see a short wave trough approach from the west and have weak warm air advection.
Locations southwest of the backdoor cold front should be warmer than today.
/issued 346 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/ The cold front is just about through the entire Mid-South at this is being written. The north surface winds along with northwest flow aloft will allow the region to be below freezing--it has been a while since most areas in the Mid-South have been below freezing. The northwest flow aloft is due to a ridge building in the western US and the trough, associated with the cold front, moving to the east.
Winds will become light quickly this evening, then increase somewhat from the west Sunday morning, except northeasterly at KPNC behind a back-door cold front. Locations southwest of the backdoor cold front should be warmer than today.
Northwest flow aloft this afternoon as the recently departed upper low continues to push east across the eastern CONUS.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure building over the Great Basin will keep our region under west-northwest flow with benign weather expected through the short term.
Flat ridge of high pressure will keep things dry and mild through the weekend. Sunday, the synoptic flow evolves into a ridge pattern with its axis located near the longitude of Las Vegas which should allow temperatures to safely rise into the low 60s for the southern 2/3 of the CWA. As the ridge axis shifts eastward in response to a digging low from the Pacific Northwest, widespread upper level moisture will spread into the western CONUS bringing overcast skies to the region but staying dry for the most part.
Upper ridge builds out west for Sunday and translates eastward. Temperatures will moderate a few degrees for most locations, however the snow covered San Luis Valley will likely remain below freezing.
254 PM MST Sat Jan 18 2020 High pressure will build across the western states this weekend resulting in a warming trend and a return to above normal temperatures. There is dry zonal flow aloft along the base of a strong ridge building across the western CONUS with a low pressure anomaly from the Great Lakes SWD.
The highest winds will be ongoing as the winter weather advisory expires at 6 pm and should start to diminish somewhat after midnight.
This precipitation is expected to continue through the day, with the possibility of the intensity increasing for a period this afternoon and evening, as a weak cold front passes. This drying may cutoff ice production in the clouds, transitioning snow to light freezing rain or drizzle through the morning. Snow accumulation will generally be light everywhere, with the impacts being slick roads after sunset, and particularly slick if freezing rain develops.
724 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 An approaching cold front will cross the area early Sunday. Dry air will filter into the region Sunday, with dry and progressively cooler conditions expected through early to mid week as cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region.
Ridge axis across the FL peninsula will slip southward tonight, as a strong cold front currently positioned over the central Gulf slides to the south and east. Prevailing VFR at all terminals tonight with southeast winds veering south then southwest by daybreak ahead of approaching cold front.
805 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery depict cold front stretching southwest across Ohio/Lower Mississippi Valley regions into northwest Gulf Coast region. High pressure ridging across Florida will retreat into the western Atlantic as cloudiness and showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms affect the state Sunday into Sunday night as the front pushes across the region.
Cold front pushing into far western TN at this time. 850 mb temps will drop through the day and with caa continuing at the sfc, look for highs to stay in the lower to mid 30s, upper 30s to near 40 far south.
Dry and warmer conditions will continue through Sunday with offshore gusty winds over eastern Ventura County and northern Los Angeles County.
254 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 An Arctic cold front analyzed across central MO into northeastern KS will backdoor into the region today and eventually sag through most of the forecast area by tonight.
113 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 Low pressure moves through the region overnight and east of New England Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will slowly build from the west. Only a few areas of light rain or light snow, maybe light freezing rain, will move through the region overnight as low pressure continues to track through the northeast. Deep cyclonic flow will remain as the center of the low pulls east, and a weak trough remains back across the Hudson Valley into southern New England. Models do indicate enough moisture with the trough and have some precipitation as energy continues to rotate through the longwave upper trough. Canadian high pressure will build slowly, reaching the area by mid to late week.
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 High pressure will continue over the area through the period.
A mid level trough will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night, bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries.
As strong CAA continues to bring in arctic air from the northwest, temperatures this morning will tumble into the low teens across southern IN and into the mid 20s in southern KY. These colder temps combined with the breezy winds will result in wind chill values this morning near zero in southern IN and into the low teens in southern KY. Despite partly to mostly sunny skies today, temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing this afternoon, with wind chills likely remaining below 20 degrees throughout the day.
There is a light westerly wind over the CWA, allowing for current temperatures to range from the mid teens up to the lower 20s.
A frontal system moving into British Columbia on Sunday will brush Western Washington as a weak upper ridge builds.
126 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 A cold front will cross the area early this morning bringing light rain showers to the area. Dry air will filter into the region behind the front today with dry and progressively cooler conditions expected through early to mid week as cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region.
/issued 805 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020/ Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery depict cold front stretching southwest across Ohio/Lower Mississippi Valley regions into northwest Gulf Coast region. High pressure ridging across Florida will retreat into the western Atlantic as cloudiness and showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms affect the state Sunday into Sunday night as the front pushes across the region.
Drier air behind the front will help to clear the skies out today and we'll get a chance to see the sun again, but it won't help warm temperatures up too much with daytime highs expected to eek near or just above freezing across the Eastern Tennessee Valley.
231 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 Winter has begun its return to the mid state, with temperatures in the low 30s early this morning. Winds above 10 mph have helped mix the low levels and keep temps from falling further as dewpoints in the 20s and even the teens just upstream with clear skies would result in temps falling further this morning. Still have lows in the low 20s on the Plateau and mid/upper 20s elsewhere overnight.
144 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2020 The last of the flurries are occurring in far western and northwest Wyoming at the time of this writing as the ridge to the west begins to build in under northwest confluent flow. The low cloud deck could persist through around 8 AM this morning.
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 Showers have moved off the coast in the wake of a cold front. 3PM surface analysis shows the cold front bisecting Houston and stretching along US 59/I-69 from Victoria to Houston and then to Cleveland. The cold front should reach the coast by around 6PM and further push convection into the Gulf. Sea fog has eroded over Galveston Bay and that should not be a problem once the cold front pushes through the area. Tomorrow will be much cooler and drier than it has been with low temperatures in the 40s and high temperatures in the 50s. A cold front should reach the coast after 6PM and further purge sea fog from the area.
339 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 A cold front will cross the area early this morning bringing light rain showers to the area. Dry air will filter into the region behind the front today with dry and progressively cooler conditions expected through early to mid week as cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region.
Likewise, only minor changes to temps tonight as CAA continues as the ridge continues to build into the area.
Secondary trough does sink south and links up with lake plume into northern zones this afternoon into early this evening. Associated enhanced boundary layer convergence and steepening low level lapse rates, along with decent saturation with respect to ice in the dendritic growth zone, suggests some potential for more intense snow shower development along this lake enhanced cold front.
1009 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 A cold front continues to slide southeast through middle TN and central KY this evening, as weak warm advection prevails into the TN valley ahead. With that, iso/sct warm frontal showers continue to shift east across the spine of the Appalachians, with sufficient moisture across the TN valley for overcast skies and perhaps some light rain or drizzle. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 42 21 36 23 / 60 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 38 21 34 21 / 60 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 28 39 20 34 21 / 50 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 36 19 31 19 / 60 0 0 0 0 TN.
255 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 Strong cold air advection continues this morning, behind a cold front that is now well south of the TN Valley. Temperatures currently in the lower to mid 40s will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak, making for a seasonably cold winter morning across the area. High pressure will build southward and into the region, with the surface pressure gradient remaining fairly tight.
1229 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 A cold front continues to slide southeast through middle TN and central KY this evening, as weak warm advection prevails into the TN valley ahead. With that, iso/sct warm frontal showers continue to shift east across the spine of the Appalachians, with sufficient moisture across the TN valley for overcast skies and perhaps some light rain or drizzle. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 21 36 23 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 21 34 21 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 20 34 21 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 19 31 19 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 TN.
By tonight, high pressure will be over the region. Continued clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the upper single digit across central missouri to the lower to middle teens for the remainder of the area. Winds will be northerly and from 5 to 10 mph for the most part but this will produce wind chills during the day in the teens in the north to near the freezing mark in the southwest.