Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface ridging over much of the eastern US. Trough axis has shifted offshore and heights are rising over the forecast area. Skies will be clear with the exception of a few cumulus in the afternoon but in general more sunshine is expected thanks to increasing high pressure. This may allow for temperatures to be a degree or two warmer. Otherwise, highs will be similar to yesterday reaching the low to mid 80s. Skies will be clear overnight with favorable radiational cooling conditions although there may be a little wind in the boundary layer with the ridge axis to the northwest. There really isn't much more to say other than that! Ridging is slowly expected to build and gradually cut off the trough to our south.
334 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure to the north keeps the area dry for the foreseeable future. A mid and upper level ridge just west of the Appalachians will slide east over the next 24 hours, maintaining a bone dry airmass above a subsidence inversion between 5000-7000 feet AGL. At the surface, high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes will move eastward across New England while extending a ridge axis southward across the Carolinas. As the high pushes offshore, some easterly return flow sets up, allowing dewpoints at the coast to recover slightly.
This will result in somewhat dampened ridging across the area.
Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough in the western and central U. with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes and sern U. Troughing slowly moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sun. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low off the CA coast in a trough in the western U. and a ridge in the southern plains 12z Mon. This ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue and remains into 12z Wed. Ridging starts to get flattened 12z Thu over the upper Great Lakes.
1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Rest of Today) Early morning fog is quickly dissipating and clear conditions are present across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control of our weather. With the amplifying ridge, plenty of sunshine, and the dry soils, think temperatures will run a degree or two higher than yesterday, with most locations peaking in the mid 80s (with a few locations in northwest Alabama peaking in the upper 80s).
157 PM MDT Thu Sep 15 2022 The area will continue to see waves of energy moving around a trough to the west of the area through the next 36 hours. For the most part the activity will be in the form of showers, but there is enough instability, mainly over the higher terrain to support come thunderstorms.
(This evening through Friday Night) Ridging aloft and at the surface is center roughly near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The ridges will continue to keep mostly clear and dry conditions in place tonight and Friday. This will allow a weak upper trough axis to cross the forecast area Friday afternoon.
140 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. Overnight, low temperatures will fall into the 50s, with upper 40s possible in the higher mountain valleys. The forecast starts to feel like a broken record this weekend as high pressure and ridging remains in control of our weather pattern.
Low pressure will begin to dig southward along the west coast on Friday, and a weak cold front is projected to move through the region which should further ventilate the valleys and cause additional reductions in the trapped smoke.
High temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than this afternoon, with low 90s possible across the area as mid-level ridging builds in.
(This afternoon through Friday) Not much change will occur over the short term period with a 590dam ridge becoming aligned over the Ohio Valley providing sunny skies to much of the Deep South. Temperature trends are running a bit warmer than this time yesterday, so expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s. Prime radiational cooling and cold air drainage will lead to some cooler spots tonight, mainly in our northeast valley areas where temps may fall into the upper 50s, but still trending a couple degrees warmer than previous nights.
126 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. Area of high pressure over the Great Lakes to central Appalachians will keep us in a dry regime through the period. Another One: Discussion On Dry Weather With High Pressure. High pressure will continue to persist, keeping dry weather with near normal temperatures for the forecast area.
155 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight as a weak backdoor cold front over northern Virginia settles into eastern NC early Friday.
216 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
349 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 As of late afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the MS Valley with the ridge axis extending north to the western Great Lakes while an upper level low was centered over the Maritimes with a trough extending south into portions of the Atlantic. At the sfc, high pressure was centered across the OH Valley. Tonight and Friday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift east and into eastern KY by late Friday. 500 mb height falls are anticipated Friday night though sfc and upper level ridging will remain dominant. As broken record as it is, high pressure will continue to remain present over the forecast area.
248 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Tonight, ridging over the Midwest will deamplify as an upper level trough moves onto the west coast, progressing eastward, and as another trough pulls off the east coast.
effective bulk wind differences near 30 kt) as the high-level/250 mb jet streak near 50 kt noses into the region, which should result in briefly organized convection particularly in the extreme southern TX PH. Thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow as subsidence continues to increase aloft from the expanding sub-tropical ridge.
Continued mean ridging will support temperatures about 5-7 degrees above mid-September climo tomorrow.
Mean layer ridging will persist across the extreme-western North Atlantic tonight through Friday night. At the same time, the low level ridge which is right across (or just south of) the Keys will gain some latitude.
1250 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temperatures through the weekend. This has kept temperatures slightly warmer overnight within 20 miles of the coast; mid and upper 60s with low 60s and even a few upper 50s inland. As clouds clear today, this may translate into warmer temperatures for this afternoon. Remaining dry as high pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic.
This should help high temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s, which will be a few degrees warmer than today.
Today and tonight: Dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist as ridging from the surface to aloft remains positioned over our region. Daytime temps may track a few degrees warmer than yesterday in some areas as the airmass gradually modifies owing to its dry nature.
1250 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today through Friday) An upper level trough moving out across the Plains today creates a weakness in the upper level pattern splitting the ridge with centers over the southeastern states and over northern Mexico later today through Friday.
It's a bit cooler in Boone, Antelope, and Knox counties where clouds and occasional showers have persisted through much of the day.
Weak high pressure building into the CWA behind front with breezy northerly winds. Lee trough strengthens on back-side of aforementioned high.
1150 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (This afternoon through Friday) Not much change will occur over the short term period with a 590dam ridge becoming aligned over the Ohio Valley providing sunny skies to much of the Deep South. Temperature trends are running a bit warmer than this time yesterday, so expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s. Prime radiational cooling and cold air drainage will lead to some cooler spots tonight, mainly in our northeast valley areas where temps may fall into the upper 50s, but still trending a couple degrees warmer than previous nights.
With a cooler airmass in place, thick and persistent cloud cover, and ongoing precipitation chances, high temperatures will be well below average for the remainder of this afternoon and especially Friday.
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing an upper level high pressure system just west of the Baja peninsula and westerly flow from the southwest US on east into Texas.
326 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022) Tonight through Friday night: Ridging over southern Wisconsin is responsible for the quiet weather through Friday. Look for high clouds streaming overhead, lows in the lower 60s tonight, and highs around 80 Friday. Ripples along the leading edge of an upper trough sitting over the intermountain West will bring intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest Friday through the weekend.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions through the period. The work week comes to a close with dry weather persisting beneath an upper level ridge. High pressure and low level dry air will maintain placid conditions through the weekend, though ridging begins to retreat and upper flow turns zonal. Daily highs are projected to range from upper 60s to low 80s along the mountains, with 80s across the lowlands. Low temperatures during the short term period will be in the 50s in the mountains and upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands.
/29 (Now through Friday) An upper ridge over the region weakens somewhat which in turn allows for Gulf moisture to gradually improve over the southern portion of the area through Friday. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to around 70 at the coast.
Slightly cooler temperatures will remain Friday with highs mainly in the 60s mountains and 70s valleys.
High pressure and ridging continue to slowly build and remain in control, keeping conditions dry, clear, and calm. Temperatures will continue the slow climb upwards, and will be similar to or a degree or two warmer tomorrow. Discussion: A large high pressure ridge in the mid and upper levels will be centered over TX to start the period. Through the weekend, this ridge will strengthen and become more amplified across the Plains, expanding its reach into the TN Valley. A couple of cold fronts approach the area in the NW flow on the eastern edge of the ridge, but they will be encountering a very dry and stable air mass that will kill any precip potential.
1209 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the trough over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with a swath of dry air moving in behind. The upper trough will continue moving east today, followed by zonal flow aloft. One is over northern areas at the tail of the trough as it continues moving east, and the other is over the Davis Mountains, as is typical in this pattern this time of year. Absent the upper trough, this activity should peter out rather quickly this evening, despite a forecasted 30+kt LLJ. Friday, zonal flow aloft begins transitioning to southwest as the next upper trough approaches the west coast. Thicknesses increase further, and with the aid of drying soils, highs Friday afternoon should be a couple of degrees warmer than today's, at or above normal most locations.
Overnight temperatures will settle into the 60s once again with spots in the higher elevations dipping into the 50s. Friday's highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than today and reach into the upper 80s to low 90s for most as upper level ridging begins to build back into the area.
As of late afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the MS Valley with the ridge axis extending north to the western Great Lakes while an upper level low was centered over the Maritimes with a trough extending south into portions of the Atlantic. At the sfc, high pressure was centered across the OH Valley. Tonight and Friday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift east and into eastern KY by late Friday. 500 mb height falls are anticipated Friday night though sfc and upper level ridging will remain dominant. As broken record as it is, high pressure will continue to remain present over the forecast area.
A flattening mid-level ridge crests over the region tonight with high clouds increasing from the west thanks to a low pressure system upstream. The increase in near-surface moisture may allow some patchy morning fog to develop, particularly south of the glacial ridge where a weaker gradient, moisture pooling, and delayed arrival of high clouds appear to offer the least detriment to fog formation. A warm front that stalls on our doorstep tonight will regain traction and quickly advance across the region on a light southwest breeze on Friday. This will boost temps back into the lower 80s with slightly higher humidity as dew points reach the 60s. Stable conditions beneath mid-level ridging will maintain dry weather, but expect high clouds to contribute to variably cloudy skies.
RAH (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022) Tonight through Friday night: Ridging over southern Wisconsin is responsible for the quiet weather through Friday. Look for high clouds streaming overhead, lows in the lower 60s tonight, and highs around 80 Friday. Ripples along the leading edge of an upper trough sitting over the intermountain West will bring intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest Friday through the weekend.
803 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure to the north keeps the area dry for the foreseeable future. A mid and upper level ridge just west of the Appalachians will slide east over the next 24 hours, maintaining a bone dry airmass above a subsidence inversion between 5000-7000 feet AGL. At the surface, high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes will move eastward across New England while extending a ridge axis southward across the Carolinas. As the high pushes offshore, some easterly return flow sets up, allowing dewpoints at the coast to recover slightly.
616 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (This evening through Friday Night) Ridging aloft and at the surface is center roughly near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The ridges will continue to keep mostly clear and dry conditions in place tonight and Friday. This will allow a weak upper trough axis to cross the forecast area Friday afternoon.
A trough will bring some shower activity to the area on Friday.
(Tonight) After sunset, temperatures have dipped into the upper 60s to lower 70s rather quickly, and should be in the lower to middle 60s in outlying areas soon. Given dew points in the lower 60s and light flow, have added patchy fog to some areas, particularly some of the low lying river valleys in the area.
1017 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Dry weather is expected into this weekend under an expansive area of high pressure, and temperatures will see a gradual warming trend. Dry weather expected to persist into the weekend, along with moderating temperatures as high pressure slowly pulls off the East Coast and a southerly flow develops.
Most locations may still reach normal highs in the low to mid 90s, possibly a degree or two cooler.
704 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure to the north keeps the area dry for the foreseeable future. A mid and upper level ridge just west of the Appalachians will slide east over the next 24 hours, maintaining a bone dry airmass above a subsidence inversion between 5000-7000 feet AGL. At the surface, high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes will move eastward across New England while extending a ridge axis southward across the Carolinas. As the high pushes offshore, some easterly return flow sets up, allowing dewpoints at the coast to recover slightly.
627 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Tonight, ridging over the Midwest will deamplify as an upper level trough moves onto the west coast, progressing eastward, and as another trough pulls off the east coast.
757 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Dry weather is expected into this weekend under an expansive area of high pressure, and temperatures will see a gradual warming trend. Crystal clear skies were found over nearly all of central PA this evening, beneath a building area of high pressure. Dry weather expected to persist into the weekend, along with moderating temperatures as high pressure slowly pulls off the East Coast and a southerly flow develops.
602 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. It will be a few degrees warmer than last night overall tonight, with a slight increase in boundary layer moisture. Overnight, low temperatures will fall into the 50s, with upper 40s possible in the higher mountain valleys. The forecast starts to feel like a broken record this weekend as high pressure and ridging remains in control of our weather pattern.
922 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Upper-level ridge centered across the region to maintain mostly clear skies overnight. /05/ (This evening through Friday Night) Ridging aloft and at the surface is center roughly near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The ridges will continue to keep mostly clear and dry conditions in place tonight and Friday. This will allow a weak upper trough axis to cross the forecast area Friday afternoon.
A broad trough aloft will remain in place across the SE CONUS, FL and the adjacent Atlantic.
711 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
727 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight as a weak backdoor cold front over northern Virginia settles into eastern NC early Friday.
Skies will be clear overnight with favorable radiational cooling conditions although there may be a little wind in the boundary layer with the ridge axis to the northwest. There really isn't much more to say other than that! Ridging is slowly expected to build and gradually cut off the trough to our south.
1012 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. It will be a few degrees warmer than last night overall tonight, with a slight increase in boundary layer moisture. Overnight, low temperatures will fall into the 50s, with upper 40s possible in the higher mountain valleys. The forecast starts to feel like a broken record this weekend as high pressure and ridging remains in control of our weather pattern.
938 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA tonight.
612 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Dry weather is expected into this weekend under an expansive area of high pressure, and temperatures will see a gradual warming trend. Crystal clear skies were found over nearly all of central PA this evening, beneath a building area of high pressure. Dry weather expected to persist into the weekend, along with moderating temperatures as high pressure slowly pulls off the East Coast and a southerly flow develops.
On Friday, a short wave trough will brush through north central WI, followed by another wave approaching from the west late in the day. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s northwest and along the lakeshore, to the lower 80s elsewhere.
Quiet weather continues with high pressure in control. Continued mean ridging will support temperatures about 5-7 degrees above mid-September climo tomorrow.
Across Canada, a large trough sets over the coasts of British Columbia with a ridge to the east over the Canadian Prairie. Between these two features occasional zones of lift energy are being tossed out at the base of the trough and flung across the International border to drag in Pacific moisture and small chances for rain.
1055 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Dry weather is expected into this weekend under an expansive area of high pressure, and temperatures will see a gradual warming trend. Dry weather expected to persist into the weekend, along with moderating temperatures as high pressure slowly pulls off the East Coast and a southerly flow develops.
Either some dryer air beneath the upper low near eastern Cuba was sneaking in, or some response to the southerly winds compressing in the lee of the mountains was still advecting in. The freshened breezes will be due to high pressure building into the Southeast United States.
Upper level ridging continues to build in with the axis remaining just to our west. Given the slight shift temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer than previous days. MOS guidance has been on the warmer side during this pattern so did go closer to the NBM. Overnight lows a few degrees warmer in the low to mid 60s. Upper ridge remains over the forecast area through the weekend. Strong upper ridge will be off to the west, centered across northeastern Texas into the middle of the week. Upper trough remains off the southeastern coast. Upper 80s may return by the middle of the week as the ridge breaks down a bit. High pressure is ridging over the region providing dry northeast flow.
General troughiness in the upper levels combined with some weak forcing near the surface from a weak inverted trough, moisture convergence, the afternoon sea breeze and abundant moisture with PWAT's near 1.
211 AM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows a broad upper trough tracking northeast through southwest Idaho early this morning. This upper trough will slowly track across our region today through tonight.
1257 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 (Tonight Through Saturday) An upper ridge continues over the central and eastern U. with an upper trough over the Rockies. The ridge will move slightly east Friday and then to the east coast Saturday. The weak upper trough will move through Arkansas Friday night then high pressure regains control of the state Saturday. High pressure will provide adequate subsidence over the area resulting in no rain chances expected through Saturday.
It's a bit cooler in Boone, Antelope, and Knox counties where clouds and occasional showers have persisted through much of the day. Saturday brings another round of potential severe weather with broad troughing across the northern plains.
Thanks to a combination of a digging northern stream jet and southern stream system coming on shore over the SW CONUS we get a building upper level high over eastern CONUS centered over the SE CONUS. With the warm front north of us through the weekend I would think Friday morning and Saturday morning should have less low clouds and fog around than the past 2 mornings.
Temperatures will be a little warmer - lower to mid 80s.
To the west, there is large trough over the coast of British Columbia with a ridge to the east on the west coast of Hudson Bay. Between these two features occasional waves of lift energy are moving east from the base of the trough.
116 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Area of high pressure from the Great Lakes into the northeast U. It will be a few degrees warmer than last night overall tonight, with a slight increase in boundary layer moisture. Overnight, low temperatures will fall into the 50s, with upper 40s possible in the higher mountain valleys. The forecast starts to feel like a broken record this weekend as high pressure and ridging remains in control of our weather pattern.
High pressure and ridging continue to slowly build and remain in control, keeping conditions dry, clear, and calm. Temperatures will continue the slow climb upwards, and will be similar to or a degree or two warmer tomorrow.
RMS The area will continue to see waves of energy moving around a trough to the west of the area through the next 36 hours. For the most part the activity will be in the form of showers, but there is enough instability, mainly over the higher terrain to support come thunderstorms. An upper low and trough begin to develop off the Pacific northwest coast Saturday.