Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
North-northwest flow aloft will prevail behind the exiting trough Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will reside over the Central Rockies.
High temperatures yesterday varied by over 40 deg F, but the cool air is winning out now with the cold front having pushed southeast of the forecast area as of early this morning. Temperatures in the upper Delta region could briefly fall to freezing, but as of now, this precipitation is expected to all be liquid.
402 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Cold front at 3 AM CST was near a Bogalusa to Houma line. Ahead of the front, temperatures are generally in the lower 70s, while behind it, temperatures have fallen into the middle 40s.
With high pressure overhead, westerly winds will also remain light through Friday night helping to support our warming trend. Increasing clouds across the southern half of the forecast area and a brief increase in winds (westerly gusts up to 25 mph) will be the only noticeable change as the trough pushes through.
expect temperatures to gradually warm to near freezing across the local area.
Cold front and most of the associated precipitation has pushed east into middle TN and AL. Due to clouds went on the lower side of temp guidance today with highs only in the lower 30s across NE AR/MO Bootheel into the 40s across NE MS. Cool high pressure settles over the region.
537 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Chilly today but trending warmer over the weekend.
Weather remains dry and unseasonably warm with the high pressure system aloft with strong subsidence remaining over the region.
Over nern WY and around much of the Black Hills, warmer temps aloft and light downslope winds are leading to temps ranging from the single digits to around 10 above.
The ridge will keep generally easterly flow in place, which will help in alleviating a little the warm temps along coastal locations in the afternoon hours, but still expecting mid to upper 80s over most of SoFlo, except east coast metro areas where they will be around 80.
531 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 A mix of snow and freezing drizzle will come to an end around or shortly after the morning commute. Ahead of this areas of freezing drizzle were persisting, but showing signs of diminishing somewhat. Strung out northern stream trough will slowly move through the area this weekend, but cause no real impacts. Temperatures will remain below normal but at least above freezing during the day to allow a slow thaw out. Progressively warmer temperatures will arrive through the upcoming week as additional waves move across the Great Lakes, each one tracking further north than the other. Light snow and freezing drizzle within a pivoting deformation zone will shift off to the east with mainly dry conditions today into tonight.
These numbers will be similar for both Sat but per- haps a smidge "warmer" as the CAA weakens. Cannot rule out the possibility of brief periods of freezing light rain/drizzle across our northern counties through the rest of this morning as temperatures have fallen below freezing. POPs are progged to increase once again tomorrow/Sat as a weak coastal trough developing near the TX Coastal Bend pushes towards the Upper TX coast.
653 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Low pressure will move well east of the region today. High pressure will build in tonight through Saturday night.
Temperatures will remain below normal for today and Saturday as the high pressure system slowly moves through the Dakotas and into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
/issued 433 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Strong high pressure centered across the Northern Plains early this morning will continue to flow south and spread across the area today. Temperatures are expected to continue to fall into the 30s and the lower 40s across much of the area through mid to late morning as strong cold air advection prevails. Wind chills "feel like temperature" will drop into the low to mid 30s this morning. Lows tonight will mainly be the mid to upper 30s, except for the lower 40s near the coast. Highs on Saturday are expected to reach the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
1257 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Showers taper off as a cold front exits east, except lingering in the mountains. Lingering low level moisture and very cold air aloft will allow for flurries or freezing drizzle along the eastern mountains through this evening. Tonight's temperatures will drop few degrees below freezing due to cold air in place aloft as models showing H850 minus 10C contour south of the area, and good radiational cooling conditions expected tonight. Highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 40s lowlands, ranging into the low 30s northeast mountains.
355 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 High pressure over the Central Plains is continuing to extend a ridge over the U. The main feature of interest is a low pressure system tracking across the Hudson Bay on Saturday. A cold front dives south across our CWA Saturday night and ushers in the next arctic air mass. Soundings show a brief period of robust snow showers accompanying the cold front passage, especially across the east. These showers could add up to a quick inch with light lake effect snow showers developing for northwest wind snow belts behind the cold front.
Temperatures are hovering at freezing and below along and north of the I-40 corridor. South of I-40, temperatures range from the low to mid 30s. No accumulations are expected due to above freezing temperatures at the surface. Highs will only climb into the low to upper 30s this afternoon. Cold front and most of the associated precipitation has pushed east into middle TN and AL. Due to clouds went on the lower side of temp guidance today with highs only in the lower 30s across NE AR/MO Bootheel into the 40s across NE MS. Cool high pressure settles over the region.
Primarily just flurries then overnight expected as 8H cold pool shunts eastward into the Lower Great Lakes coincident with lowering inversions in the mixed layer downstream of southern Lake Michigan.
Cloud cover may help to hold readings up a bit overnight, but numbers should still manage to fall into the upper teens in some colder some nrn areas, to the lower to mid 20s most other locations.
Dry weather returns later tonight and Saturday with high pressure.
High pressure, light winds and clear skies have allowed the temperature forecast to remain right on track with lows bottoming out in the teens below zero. The overall Northern Plains pattern will feature a slow moving positively tilted upper trough and mid level warm air advection through Saturday morning. Continued with the mention of blowing snow, although Saturday afternoon temperatures will rise above freezing which may help to compact the snow pack. The upper ridging over the western CONUS will then gradually spread to the east as energy flows into the west coast, and then across the western CONUS.
(This evening through Saturday) The main concern overnight is the potential for freezing rain/freezing drizzle Saturday morning. With temperatures near to below freezing, light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may develop. At this time, little to no ice accumulations are expected, but minor accumulations are possible, especially on elevated surfaces, along with bridges and overpasses. Temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to slowly rise above freezing, with precipitation transitioning to all liquid.
140 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 A dry cold front crosses the area this afternoon, moving east of the area tonight. Much cooler air will return behind the cold front with temperatures 20 to 25 degrees cooler for the weekend.
227 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Cool high pressure will settle into central IL tonight.
158 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 High pressure over the Central Plains is continuing to extend a ridge over the U. Any accompanying snow showers with this trough is anticipated to be light to perhaps locally moderate in nature, with little accumulation expected.
High pressure is building southeast from the Central Plains, with winds gradually decreasing as it approaches.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Bitter cold air will linger over NE Montana this morning before warmer temperatures move in from the west during the day today. The upper trough that has kept the bitter cold air in place will move to the SE today and NE MT will transition to a warmer NW flow aloft. Then, an upper ridge moves into the area from the west over the weekend.
214 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Above average temperatures and dry conditions persist through the weekend as the strong ridge remains aloft.
Discussion: Deep swly flow prevails this afternoon across the region as a cold front continues to push east of the Appalachians with drier high pressure spilling in from the northwest. PGFs remain elevated ahead of the ridge across East TN and southwest VA/NC this afternoon favoring light/moderate nwly winds with some light gusting amidst sct low clouds (ovc across the plateau).
Broad scale troughing exists over most of the nation. With strong CAA, low-level thermal trough & gusty gradient winds, a blustery morning has been ongoing & chilly aftn is expected. Highs remain tricky as some lingering clouds from broad isentropic ascent & CAA tamper down warming in the NW, while some warming may occur into the low-mid 50s in the E-SE into the Pine Belt. High temperatures yesterday varied by over 40 deg F, but the cool air is winning out now with the cold front having pushed southeast of the forecast area as of early this morning. Temperatures in the upper Delta region could briefly fall to freezing, but as of now, this precipitation is expected to all be liquid.
Most of the high-resolution models show at least a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle and perhaps a few sleet pellets during this time period. No significant or widespread impacts/accumulations are expected at this time, but we can't rule out some light accumulations on bridges and overpasses mainly across the western zones where colder temperatures are expected. However, it is important to mention that any light freezing drizzle may still cause some issues given the three straight days below freezing. Temperatures should rise above freezing area-wide by late morning with highs reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s in the afternoon hours.
This will keep a fetch of Pacific moisture streaming over the forecast area through the day on Saturday and hence the high cloudiness will continue. Either way with the dry sub cloud layer do not expect freezing fog to develop again Saturday morning although there is a non-zero chance of localized occurrences on the Caprock. Locations closest to the center of this high pressure (i. As the main trough starts to move off to the east and northeast, upper heights will begin to increase, resulting in a slow warm-up. An upper trough will approach the region from the west going into the middle of the week. As this trough approaches, it will form a Lee cyclone over southern Colorado, resulting in winds over the region becoming southwesterly and highs rising into the 70s, maybe nearing 80 for the latter part of the week.
246 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 A blocking and stubborn ridge complex remains across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The trough complex pivoting southeast through the western United States will consolidate and dig into the southern PLains tonight through Saturday night. Meanwhile, the low-level ridging over Florida will erode in tandem with the erosion of the northern flank of the blocking mid to upper-level ridge. Breezes will diminish as the low-level ridge relaxes.
141 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 High pressure will nose into the Commonwealth this weekend, to bring generally dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
Temperatures have tumbled since midnight across the TN Valley thanks to a cold front that is SE of the CWFA as of this update. CAA has dropped temps from the 60s around midnight to current readings in the middle/upper 30s for much of the Central and NW portions of the area, with several locations in the SE portions of the area still holding on in the lower/middle 40s. Moderating temperatures a tad warmer should make the weekend rain an all liquid event, with lows Sat night in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
325 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 A cold front will pass through this evening bringing a trend towards more normal temperatures.
Some high cloud should continue tonight through much of Saturday, but modest south to southwest winds should provide a warmer day.
TODAY: A quiet day is expected as high pressure builds back into the region after being displaced by yesterday's snow system. Although winds will gradually increase overnight, wind chills stay warmer than advisory criteria so no headlines are expected. Seasonal temperatures continue through the forecast period with highs in the 30's and lows in the teens with some locally cooler lows possible.
1127 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 (Today and tonight) The surface pressure ridge will pass slowly east of Oklahoma today with relatively light winds. High temperatures today will reach freezing in areas that had the most sleet accumulation with highs in the upper 30s in other areas.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) The freezing fog and low clouds that moved across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico this morning have lifted and moved out of the area early this afternoon. Saturday will be another chilly morning with below freezing temperatures felt across a majority of the region. This should keep temperatures cooler across the basin Saturday. The higher terrain and Big Bend should see temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A weak cold front is forecast to arrive late Saturday night, shifting winds out of he north, and resulting in yet another night of chilly below freezing temperatures for most.
Temperatures will likely struggle to reach freezing across this area until the early afternoon. Lift within a saturated layer across northern Texas, far southern Oklahoma could result in very light freezing drizzle rain Saturday morning, perhaps early afternoon.
Some patchy freezing drizzle and drizzle seen in parts of southwestern IN and western KY early this morning on radar is expected to move quickly off to the east-southeast before daybreak. Still, with temps staying or dipping below freezing, some black ice development is possible, especially on elevated surfaces. Temps are not forecast to rise above freezing until this afternoon, aided by persistent cloud cover today, especially east of the MS River. Tonight, clouds will be on the general increase, especially west of the MS River as moisture aloft in slightly anticyclonic flow begins to overrun the dome of high pressure at the surface. The WFO PAH forecast area will be along the southern edge of faster northwesterly flow and the eastern limb of a slowly progressive ridge to the west.
Temperatures are at or above freezing across the region this afternoon, however we do anticipate that temperatures in much of the Hill Country may fall into the 30-32 degree range after 1am Saturday. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as a result, mainly on elevated roadways in the region north of Rocksprings to Boerne to Burnet, with the heavily-populated I-35 corridor safely outside the risk area. Temperatures should rise back above freezing areawide by mid to late morning, on our way to highs near 40 northeast and in the low to potentially mid 50s along the Rio Grande.
The cold front has also mostly passed through the area. High pressure begins to build into the region early Saturday morning.
A slight overnight deepening of a coastal trough will keep chances of light rain or drizzle going along the coast, but accumulations will be very low. As the trough fills on Saturday precip may let up in the afternoon. Weak additional reinforcing high pressure will again arrive Saturday night, reviving low end rain chances, but Saturday night temps will edge slightly higher than Friday night temps, reaching the lower to mid 40s.
Cold front continues to push east this morning with rain showers moving out as well. A cold front is currently moving across the east TN Valley. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 35 51 41 53 / 20 10 10 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 33 50 38 51 / 70 10 10 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 51 32 50 37 53 / 50 0 10 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 31 49 35 51 / 90 0 10 40 40.
Strong high pressure remains over the local area today, providing an onshore flow regime with mainly dry conditions, however variable winds are expected across the western interior. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s across the interior. (Previous Discussion) Strong upper-level high pressure remains in place centered over the south-central Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure ridging over the western Atlc extends back west to across central FL and will provide a continued onshore flow regime with mainly dry conditions. Dry conditions continue as a high pressure system remains over the local area. (Previous Discussion) High pressure ridging over the western Atlc extending back toward central FL will provide for a light southerly wind component over the local coastal waters.
1210 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 A frontal system will push through the area late in the day with rain mainly for the mountains and ushering in cool high pressure from the north Saturday.
1033 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Mean layer ridging and a stable air mass dominates the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled rising low and mid-level heights, coincident with a strengthening ridge complex. A retrograding cut-off low north of the Lesser Antilles may be responsible for two weak low-level undulations near and to the east of the Bahamas. Temperatures are nearing 80 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
251 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 High pressure is building into the area at the surface and aloft this afternoon and will bring quiet weather to the area through the weekend. Discussion: High pressure will build into the area at the surface and aloft tonight. High pressure pushes to the southeast into the lower Ohio River Valley during the day on Saturday which will allow the winds to shift to the southwest and bring slightly warmer air into the area. High temperatures will range from the mid 30s along the Highway 20 corridor to the upper 30s south of Interstate 80.
This has allowed for mostly sunny skies with a southwest breeze, while a batch of lower clouds tied to the low level warm air advection persisted in western North Dakota. With surface winds becoming westerly tonight, low temperatures will be warmer than previous days, from around zero in the east to around 10 in the west. Relatively warmer temperatures of 20s and 30s can be expected in the afternoon, near normal for most locations. A weak cold front will push into the north central late Saturday afternoon, which also may produce a few flurries as this front pushes south Saturday night.
The arctic air will continue to slowly modify warmer through today as the cold high pressure center slowly moves eastward and surface winds turn to the south. Overall winds should stay fairly light and even with some cloud cover and slightly warmer arctic air we should see lows once again fall into the single digits to lower teens. Saturday we should continue to experience a warming trend as the 500 mb trough will help to push out the remaining arctic air to the east and downsloping northwest winds behind the trough should push 850 mb temps to around 0 (C). With high pressure in northeast Colorado we shouldn't see much in the way of wind tomorrow and with sunshine highs should get into the mid 40s.
159 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Passing cold front from last night long gone, and is expected to stall across the FL handle. We wont really see anymore direct impacts from this boundary, but will see the effects of a incoming upper trough. This trough is expected to cross the mid-state Sun afternoon. With such a borderline temp structure and really only on the northern fringe where moisture is most limited, any freezing/frozen pcpn that develops will be short lived and likely trace amounts.
1040 AM MST Fri Feb 25 2022 A weak trough that has dropped down from Wyoming has started bringing snowfall to the area but it's spread a little further south and west than originally thought. By 18Z, the NAMNEST then wants to start putting some low end PoPs over the higher terrain. The trough will continue to be overhead Saturday morning but with minimal available moisture, not expecting any sensible weather. Saturday is looking to be a nice day with some variable clouds over the higher terrain and mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Alas, northerly winds on the backside of this trough will keep cold air advecting in and with the cold air already in place, no bump in highs yet. It should 'feel' warmer though thanks to the increased sunshine.
1242 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Showers taper off as a cold front exits east, except lingering in the mountains. Lingering low level moisture and very cold air aloft will allow for flurries or freezing drizzle along the eastern mountains through this evening. Tonight's temperatures will drop few degrees below freezing due to cold air in place aloft as models showing H850 minus 10C contour south of the area, and good radiational cooling conditions expected tonight. Highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 40s lowlands, ranging into the low 30s northeast mountains. Cool, but dry weather is expected Saturday amid zonal flow with morning lows in the lower to mid 20s and afternoon highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the lower elevations and lower 30s in the mountains.
308 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 A cold front will move southeast across the region this evening, with following cool high pressure that will build overhead tonight and Saturday. While it was slow to occur, the low clouds over the Piedmont have mostly dissipated. Meanwhile, the cold front was analyzed slowly moving across the foothills region of the state. After several hours of CAA, lows tonight will bottom out in the lower 30s north to around 40 south. With today's cold front well to our south, high pressure will build over ern NC during the day Saturday. However, moist SW flow aloft will keep a fair amount of mid and high clouds over the area, thus limiting sunshine and not providing much help to offset the cooler airmass that will have worked into our area overnight.
Bulk of later periods will be dominated by weak short wave troughs dropping through western Great Lakes in flow. Mean upper ridge will shift from western CONUS into our area, but then shifts to a more active southwest flow pattern.
- Warmer temps and breezy winds should chew through a good portion of the snow cover Saturday afternoon. Upper low that brought widespread accumulating snowfall to the area yesterday has since departed off the east. An 850mb warm front also moves through early in the overnight. Sunshine and increasing southwesterly winds should have little problem chewing into the low moisture content snow cover, but did shave a few degrees off of highs in areas that received the most snowfall yesterday.
Ahead of this areas of freezing drizzle were persisting, but showing signs of diminishing somewhat. Strung out northern stream trough will slowly move through the area this weekend, but cause no real impacts. Temperatures will remain below normal but at least above freezing during the day to allow a slow thaw out. Progressively warmer temperatures will arrive through the upcoming week as additional waves move across the Great Lakes, each one tracking further north than the other.
1019 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 Chilly today but trending warmer over the weekend.