Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough will remain over the Eastern U. At the surface, a low will move through the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front. The one exception is the East TN mountains where clouds will linger through the afternoon and a brief light snow or flurries will be possible in the afternoon at the higher elevations as mid level flow becomes northwesterly and perpendicular to the mountains providing lift. With northerly winds and CAA tomorrow, temps will be cooler in the 40s but the sun will be out in most locations in the afternoon.
By this time tomorrow afternoon, a noticeable air mass change will have occurred as moderate southeast breezes transport warmer and more humid air back into the Keys.
Where wet or snow covered, icy conditions are likely to worsen after sunset as temperatures drop below freezing. Whereas prior forecast cycles backed a cold front from the northeast into Central Montana, the latest guidance now keeps the front in a stationary position overnight. As is typical for wintertime high pressure, some of the colder southwest valleys may develop stubborn temperature inversions.
Increasing sky cover with lowering ceilings underway across the region this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will move through the region on Tuesday. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 50 25 42 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 45 23 38 21 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 45 21 38 20 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 42 20 34 16 / 0 0 0 0 0.
This afternoon, a cold front extends from northern IN southwest through MO. This cold front will move across the area tonight.
Mid-level lapse rates aren't impressive, but cold air and a modestly deep dendritic snow growth zone will support snow ratios on the higher side. The other side of this system is the much colder air tonight through Tuesday, as Canadian high pressure settles south over Mid-America.
Main weather feature through Tuesday is a cold front that will bring chances for light rain this afternoon through tonight for south- central IN and central KY. Based on surface observations around the region, south to southwest surface winds across IN/KY out ahead of an approaching cold front with surface temperatures ranging from 48 at Louisville to 42 at Huntingburg as of the early afternoon. High resolution model placement of the lower level jet and associated vorticity along the cold frontal advancement will provide the necessary lift for the rain this afternoon and evening, but the main question will be the amount of mosture available in the atmospheric column.
646 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Expect poor aviation weather conditions for the area as -RA/SHRA and IFR/LIFR ceilings acompany the progressive trough as it moves across the area tonight into Tues morning. 8 inches around the Highway 82 corridor and an inch for locations along and south of I-20. In addition, an upper trough is located across west central Texas. The highest chances for light rain and perhaps some heavier bands will be along and south of I-20, whereas some light rain could occur as far north as the Highway 82 corridor. The low will continue to track east into the day tomorrow and rain will taper off through the morning.
It is at this time the low will be to the east and another Canadian air mass will drop in behind the exiting low.
Persistent high pressure will remain over the Pacific NW throughout the week.
Elsewhere skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temps in the low teens.
419 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof covering much of the CONUS with short wave diving southeast through the Northern Rockies. However, warm front will quickly lift back through our region Tuesday night ahead of next approaching clipper.
Temperatures are also generally a few degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement a trough is expected to dig into the great basin tomorrow leading to tightening surface pressure gradients over interior northern California. Thereafter, high pressure continues to be the primary synoptic feature for the remainder of the week with cool nights and mild afternoons.
8 inches around the Highway 82 corridor and an inch for locations along and south of I-20. In addition, an upper trough is located across west central Texas. The highest chances for light rain and perhaps some heavier bands will be along and south of I-20, whereas some light rain could occur as far north as the Highway 82 corridor. The low will continue to track east into the day tomorrow and rain will taper off through the morning.
Persistent high pressure remains in place across the region with widespread clouds remaining in place in the lower elevations. Little change for the next few days, with the ridge expected to weaken late in the week allowing the next weather system to approach.
The passing trough will bring increased winds also, especially across mountain and desert zones. The ridge is progged to track slowly inland through the end of the week behind the exiting trough and we can expect lighter winds and highs running several degrees above seasonal averages, while overnight and morning fog will be possible in the San Joaquin Valley. A weak low is progged to track inland across California during the weekend with little significant impacts, then by Monday, model solutions drop a more significant low pressure system into our region, which will bring a chance for some precipitation.
Cold spots such as Craig and Gunnison are expected to be a bit warmer tonight thanks to the increasing cloud cover. As it stands, the Northern and Central Mountains are looking at general 1-4 inches, with that 4 limited to the highest peaks where locally higher amounts may be possible. The cold front pushes through the I-70 corridor by noon, and while a few snow flurries may be possible across the lower valleys before this point, no accumulations will occur. As with the Northern and Central mountains, accumulations of 1-4 with locally higher amounts across the highest peaks are expected.
The surface cold front is through most of Oklahoma except for far southern Oklahoma, with northerly winds behind the front.
251 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Although surface temperatures are staying near to a bit above freezing, lower surface dewpoints are allowing precipitation type to stay as snow as it reaches the surface. Surface temperatures are currently well above freezing, so not much for accumulations is expected, at least on hard surfaces such as sidewalks and roads.
310 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Chilly temperatures are moving into the region tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing southeast across Illinois.
903 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
/issued 349 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022/ A cold front will move through the area tonight ushering additional cold air.
Clear skies and mild temperatures will be interrupted Tuesday with partially cloudy skies, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures.
Persistent high pressure remains in place across the region with widespread clouds remaining in place in the lower elevations. Little change for the next few days, expect the ridge to weaken late in the week allowing the next weather system to move into the region.
645 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
Locally reduced vsbys will be possible at times tonight with the RA, with cigs eventually becoming LIFR over much of E TX/N LA and persisting until a cold front shifts S through the region late. As shwrs come to an end across our wrn areas of E TX early Tuesday morning, fog will be possible as the low levels remain near saturation.
The Advisory was thus retained for the ridge zones only with an additional 1 or 2, with up to 3 inches possible on the very highest elevations.
353 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Short term focus remains on the approaching trough/front combo sliding south-southeast across the Intermountain West. Areas of SW WY from Cokeville to Rock Springs could see an inch or two through tomorrow morning, as they are closer to the midlevel energy from the trough sweeping across ID/UT. Cold pool and northernly CAA will keep temperatures down from today's highs, with most areas likely remaining below freezing through the day. Cold air aloft will mean a break of inversions for the day, with warmest temperatures at the lower elevations.
High pressure is spreading over the area. Light rain and drizzle will persist through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening as a coastal trough remains parked along the lower Texas coast and modest overrunning continues over the region. Temperatures overnight tonight will drop into the low-mid 40s in most locations; temperatures closer to 50 degrees are expected near the coast. Light northerly winds in the morning will gradually turn northeast, then east-northeast by the late afternoon hours as another cold front works its way south through the heart of the state. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will rise to near seasonal averages, generally in the low-mid 70s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Skies have cleared in wake of a parting shrtwv trof with the assocd weak cold front to the n of LBB. 85h temps will be only a little cooler Tue PM. Of more concern is the next cold front that will make a hard push into the CWFA early Wed AM.
508 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 The strong arctic cold front is nearing a KFAM>>KSLO line early this afternoon. Percentiles of 850-hPa temperature are closer to the 20th percentile with this airmass, though the surface anticyclone is near the 98th percentile. Another difference (at least in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois) will be the less of a snow cover which should help keep temperatures a bit warmer than they otherwise would be.
511 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Chilly temperatures are moving into the region tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing southeast across Illinois.
A cold front, situated near the Lower Ohio River at 00z, continues to drop southeastward. A dusting of snow is possible at the highest elevations of Pike, Letcher, and Harlan counties by morning. With the forecast area sitting under the right entrance region and a cold front that's progged to move through overnight, chances for PoP increase through the first part of the short term period. With the lower levels being mostly dry, some evaporation of precipitation will likely occur until the lower- levels become saturated. While the region stays in this longwave trough pattern, isolated upslope snow showers may be possible in far eastern Only one weather system of note to speak of in the extended.
Northerly winds of 15 to 25 MPH are occurring across the area with temperatures ranging from the upper teens at Independence, Monticello, and Dubuque to the lower 30s at Macomb, Keokuk, and Mount Pleasant. Discussion: The gradient between the departing clipper system moving into the Ohio Valley and high pressure across southern Canada will result in gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH this afternoon into this evening with strong cold advection across the Upper Midwest.
In the mean time, a cold front (or at least the wind shift part) is working through the area with the passage expected to reach the Red River this evening. Overnight lows will be much cooler than this morning with temperatures dipping largely into the 20s north of I-40 and lower to mid 30s south of I-40.
A quick moving weather disturbance and cold front will bring a few light snow showers to far northeastern Nevada late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a quiet weather pattern will return Tuesday night with high pressure in control through the weekend. An approaching upper-level short wave and cold front will promote some light shower development primarily in far northeastern late tonight into Tuesday morning. Gusty winds will develop across central nevada south of US-50 Tuesday afternoon as the cold front passes through but wind speeds should remain below advisory levels. Temperatures will drop several degrees Tuesday with highs only in the 30s for much of central and northern Nevada with some lower 40s in the lower valleys approaching western Nevada and northern Nye county.
In the upper levels, we sit under northwesterly flow, driven by broad troughing associated with an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area. Main story for the day has been with the passage of a sfc cold front, which is now well south and east of the CWA. While calendar day highs look to work out pretty well in the low 40s north to low 50s south, current mid-afternoon temps range from right near 30 in north to low 50s south.
The backdoor cold front is (as of 2pm MST) extending from near Zortman to South Sawmill Creek to near Forsyth.
349 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 A cold front will move through the area tonight ushering additional cold air.
Otherwise, primarily MVFR/IFR conditions are expected, with visibility dropping as low as one quarter of a mile at times in freezing fog and snow. Where wet or snow covered, icy conditions are likely to worsen after sunset as temperatures drop below freezing. Whereas prior forecast cycles backed a cold front from the northeast into Central Montana, the latest guidance now keeps the front in a stationary position overnight. As is typical for wintertime high pressure, some of the colder southwest valleys may develop stubborn temperature inversions.
939 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 03Z / 9PM CST surface map showed an Arctic cold front, just north of the AR/MO border. The freezing line was just clearing the Kansas City area. /issued 349 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022/ A cold front will move through the area tonight ushering additional cold air.
259 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 A cold front is bringing colder, drier air to the Mid State this morning.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front is currently located near a line from Eufaula to Fayetteville, marked by a shift to north winds but little in the way of a notable temperature drop. This was ppicked up on well by many of the high-res models, which show a 3-5 hour surge in gusts along and north of I-40 in general.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to mid 40s. It will be colder Tuesday in the wake of the trough with brisk northerly winds, with high temperatures struggling to reach 30 degrees in most areas.
1029 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 An upper level trough is expected to remain over the eastern U.
1014 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof covering much of the CONUS with short wave diving southeast through the Northern Rockies. However, warm front will quickly lift back through our region Tuesday night ahead of next approaching clipper.
1017 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Short term focus remains on the approaching trough/front combo sliding south-southeast across the Intermountain West. Areas of SW WY from Cokeville to Rock Springs could see an inch or two through tomorrow morning, as they are closer to the midlevel energy from the trough sweeping across ID/UT. Cold pool and northernly CAA will keep temperatures down from today's highs, with most areas likely remaining below freezing through the day. Cold air aloft will mean a break of inversions for the day, with warmest temperatures at the lower elevations.
This evenings sounding indicated multiple subsidence inversions, the lowest being unusually low at around 990 mb. Short Term Update - The high spanning Florida will begin to be compressed eastward through the overnight as a low pressure system takes shape in the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure over Florida will result in light northerly breezes shifting northeasterly overnight.
In addition, an arctic cold front stretches from Ohio Valley region into northeastern Arkansas. After 6 or 7 am, models consistently show downglide taking over north of the decaying front, as high pressure moves further southeastward into the area.
That pattern consisting off a west coast/east Pacific ridge, and downstream trof over much of the CONUS.
1003 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 The strong arctic cold front is nearing a KFAM>>KSLO line early this afternoon. Percentiles of 850-hPa temperature are closer to the 20th percentile with this airmass, though the surface anticyclone is near the 98th percentile. Another difference (at least in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois) will be the less of a snow cover which should help keep temperatures a bit warmer than they otherwise would be.
226 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 A 1038 mb arctic high pressure center will settle southeast across the northern Plains today and into the upper Mississippi Valley by Wed morning. Eventually the arctic dry air will erode the low clouds this morning. In the meantime, the low-level moisture within the unstable layer will produce lots of clouds and maybe even a few flurries in sw Indiana, se Illinois, and nw Kentucky. Temperatures will generally remain in the 20s today, except rising into the lower 30s this afternoon in far se Missouri and sw Kentucky.
Winds will increase to around 10 knots out of the north as the pressure gradient tightens behind tonight's cold front.
An upper level trough swinging through the area this evening has brought light snow and/or snow flurries to southwest Idaho. Fog and stratus will expand by later Tuesday as high pressure re-strengthens from the east. An upper level trough is currently moving through the forecast area tonight, which has increased wind speeds and mixing heights in southwest Idaho and far eastern edge of Oregon. In southeast Oregon, an Air Stagnation Advisory remains over north- central Harney County, as this area should see the least amount of inversion relief from the current trough overall. High pressure will re-strengthen from the east on Tuesday.
The cloud-bearing layer will be shallow but residing in air temperatures around -10 to -12C with surface temperatures in the low 20s F. Tonight the center of a dome of strong Canadian high pressure will advance from South Dakota to Iowa, continuing our supply of cold air. Though skies will be mostly clear tonight (some thin cirrus is possible, especially across southern Kentucky), conditions won't quite be ideal for radiational cooling as north breezes ahead of the center of the high continue through the night near 10 mph.
A strong cold front will move into the region late in the forecast period, accompanied by gusty NE/E winds, with gusts to 20-30kt possible along with increasing high clouds. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Skies have cleared in wake of a parting shrtwv trof with the assocd weak cold front to the n of LBB. 85h temps will be only a little cooler Tue PM. Of more concern is the next cold front that will make a hard push into the CWFA early Wed AM.
236 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 An extensive U/L trough over eastern North America will persist through the remainder of the week. A series of northern stream disturbances will move through the base of the trough which is located across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The first disturbance will approach the Florida peninsula late today and will begin to shear out as it rounds the base of the trough tonight. Better chance for marine thunderstorm activity to hold together to the south where water temps are bit warmer.
1125 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 An upper level trough is expected to remain over the eastern U.
(Today) Expect a much cooler and breezier day today behind the overnight cold frontal passage, especially across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. Given the fire activity we saw in parts of eastern Oklahoma yesterday and the continued lack of notable precipitation, the lower moisture behind the front and gusty northerly winds could lead to a localized uptick in the rapid fire spread, especially west of Highway 75.
Light southerly winds will become calmer and variable as the cold front pushes into the area, with winds shifting to northerly and northeasterly as dawn approaches across our northern zones, becoming northerly areawide tomorrow, with afternoon gusts as high as 15 to 20 kts possible.
103 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 An upper level trough is expected to remain over the eastern U.
Winds will be light and variable / north-northeast around 5 knots through Tuesday morning as a low pressure system moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
1040 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front is currently located near a line from Eufaula to Fayetteville, marked by a shift to north winds but little in the way of a notable temperature drop. This was ppicked up on well by many of the high-res models, which show a 3-5 hour surge in gusts along and north of I-40 in general.
309 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Low pressure moves east from the Gulf across Florida today as a weak cold front crosses our area.
/issued 939 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022/ 03Z / 9PM CST surface map showed an Arctic cold front, just north of the AR/MO border. The freezing line was just clearing the Kansas City area. /issued 349 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022/ A cold front will move through the area tonight ushering additional cold air.
In the aftermath of the cold front, strong CAA both at the surface and aloft will help to bring the coldest air of the season so far to much of central Indiana.
The nose of a 325K+ H850 thetae ridge and greater moisture transport extending north into southern LA may eventually result in locally heavier rain developing up to the Hwy 84 corridor, and it wouldn't be out of the question to observe total rainfall of up to one inch in the Natchez area. 8 inches around the Highway 82 corridor and an inch for locations along and south of I-20. In addition, an upper trough is located across west central Texas. The highest chances for light rain and perhaps some heavier bands will be along and south of I-20, whereas some light rain could occur as far north as the Highway 82 corridor. The low will continue to track east into the day tomorrow and rain will taper off through the morning.
627 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 A cold front exits the region this morning to our east. Arctic high pressure gradually builds in, but flurry activity will remain possible today.
08Z surface analysis places an arctic cold front stretching from East Tennessee back through Southwest Tennessee and back into Central Arkansas. The pleasant temperatures the Mid-South experienced in the lower 60s yesterday was short-lived as short term models indicate the aforementioned arctic cold front will continue to push south today. A ridge of arctic high pressure will build in across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Wednesday. Temperatures will be much cooler today and Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees north of I-40 and 40s south.
In the aftermath of the cold front, strong CAA both at the surface and aloft will help to bring the coldest air of the season so far to much of central Indiana. anchored by a ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean and West Coast and a broad trough over much of the country east of the Rockies.
Amounts of 1-3 are possible on the high end which is expected west of K-14.
433 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 After a brief reprieve featuring above normal temperatures yesterday, an arctic cold front has swept through the region, bringing with it an abrupt return to below average temperatures.
However, will wait to see how the trough looks as it is advecting very cold and slightly drier air.
332 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 06z data has the arctic high over the northern Plains while a cold front ran from the Mid-Atlantic region into the southern Plains. Dry but very cold conditions will be seen today through tonight as arctic high pressure moves through the Midwest.
An upper level high pressure ridge will remain over the region through late this week.
Most models are fairly consistent in lingering them across portions of Johnson and Natrona County as well as southern Wyoming the longest so that is where the highest POPs will be placed. With the colder air and some fresh snow cover, temperatures will be cooler than recent days but nothing unusual for late January in the Cowboy state. We should have some dry weather from late today through Wednesday as ridging slides across the area.