Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cloudy evening is underway across the TN Valley, with temperatures currently in the lower to middle 40s. Clouds/moisture streaming NE ahead of the approaching upper low (currently approaching the ArkLaTex region) will keep morning lows several degrees warmer than in days past.
Dry and warmer weather is expected across northern Arizona through Sunday.
The said trough will push east overnight, parting way to clearing skies going into Saturday. With it being winter, the mention of low stratus and surface temperatures below freezing (with no ice in the clouds aloft) does perk some ears up regarding the potential for freezing drizzle. However, the moisture depth of the low clouds looks to remain rather shallow (under 1 km) with little lift in that layer. Therefore, the threat for freezing drizzle looks minimal at this point. Region remains entrenched in warm sector of low pressure passing through Canada Sunday. The low pressure wave train will continue Sunday across Canada, bringing another system through Manitoba/western Ontario.
breezy and unsettled conditions will prevail over the inland northwest through Saturday before a cold front begins to restore temperatures back toward seasonal normal.
1211 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Light northwest flow currently prevails at the surface and aloft behind the trough that passed through the area this morning. Temperatures should be able to push into the 50s on Saturday with continued clear skies and the mid/upper level ridge building overhead. Sunday should be even warmer with 850 mb temperatures forecast to be 16-17C. The latest forecast has highs in the mid 50s to the low 60s.
BKN high deck gradually lowers to BKN mid deck at CHA as a low pressure system to our southwest advances closer to our region.
Increasing high clouds noted on satellite imagery, as the ridge axis lies overhead ahead of the upper-level trough digging south in the Pacific. This cloud cover has been most evident across the Sierra and Southern Great Basin due to some downwind terrain enhancement, but expect some of this cloud shield to spread further east tonight as the ridge axis begin to shift into Arizona. Widespread high clouds will linger through the weekend as the flow aloft amplifies with a fairly deep trough developing off the California Coastline.
Strong upper level ridging across the western US combined with deep troughing across the southeast US will continue to keep dry and pleasant conditions across north central and western Nebraska. Across the southwest, a few locations that already have little to no snowpack could see temperatures rise into the low 60s on Saturday.
Lows will generally be from the mid 20s to lower 30s, except for lows in the lower 20s tonight over snow covered areas. A large high pressure area was centered near Lake Ontario with a ridge extending to the Ohio River.
High pressure and dry conditions will persist through the end of the week.
117 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure in control through the weekend.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the low to mid 40s, and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Clouds are keeping temps up at the moment, but once the scattering out of clouds occur, temps should still drop to below freezing toward morning. Satellite imagery shows the weak upper trough from MN to NM with the vort max over the eastern TX panhandle. The surface chart continued the light southerly flow of warmer air into the area. Upper trough develops over the Rockies with ridge over eastern US.
Early morning analysis places a weak cold front bisecting the local area, but becoming increasingly diffuse with time, while on the broader scale, amplification to mid level ridging is well underway just to our west, in response to digging energy across the eastern Pacific. Fairly expansive lower stratus/fog shield continues to be noted in the wake of that aforementioned cold front, just clipping areas north of I-90 and driven by shallow cold advection beneath quite the warm plume aloft (classic stratus recipe).
At this point it's not a certain thing but a majority of forecast soundings show the lowest couple hundred feet saturating and fogging in with a decent temperature inversion. Given the higher probabilities from the SREF and the pattern, have expanded the fog mention in both area and time. This system will have little impact on our weather other then to dampen out potential warming tomorrow due to weakening of the long wave ridge over the area. We should still be able to climb into the lower to middle 50s. With southerly to southwesterly flow and increasing heights from the building upper ridge, temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 50s with some areas in eastern Kansas and western Missouri potentially climbing into the lower 60s.
1232 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure in control through the weekend.
Lows tomorrow will range from the teens in the lower valleys to 20s elsewhere. On Sunday, more of the same/dry weather is expected, but warmer temperatures.
/issued 403 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ There is a chance for drizzle/light rain over southern/eastern OK this afternoon into tomorrow morning as the closing low pressure trough tracks across southern OK overnight. Latest water vapor loop (21Z) places the center of the upper low near Childress, TX with the midlevel dry slot covering the western two thirds of Oklahoma.
An upper level trough/low will move from over the southern Plains today, to over the lower Mississippi Valley region by 12z Sunday. High pressure to our east will keep us dry.
The sky over SW KS is clear, and it will remain clear through Saturday, as upper ridging begins to move in with increasing heights/thickness/850 mb temperatures. Sunday will be even warmer, as the very strong ridge builds in, and 500 mb heights eclipse 580 dm across the southern zones. This will be an incredibly beautiful weekend for this time of year; get outside and enjoy! On Sunday, more of the same/dry weather is expected, but warmer temperatures.
/issued 915 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ Obviously upper forcing ahead of our upper trough to our north and west is a little more significant than short term progs suggest as light precipitation coverage continues to grow and expand north and east this evening.
An upper low presently centered over southwest Oklahoma continues to move away from the region this evening. During the day on Saturday, increasing H5 heights as longwave ridge builds in will aid in a warmer day tomorrow.
Light precip has remained rather spotty thus far this evening however some uptick in coverage is possible as the upper low draws closer to the area.
Little remaining snow and 850 mb temperatures a few degrees warmer should allow for highs in the lower to middle 50s with the low cloud slowly diminishing. Sunny skies continue Sunday as an upper ridge builds overhead.
Broad upper level ridging will be situated over the northern plains with a moderate southwest flow within the lower atmosphere. The main question will be how much we can mix down those warmer southwest winds aloft into the lowest few meters of the boundary layer. There won't be much cold air behind it initially, so temperatures in some areas could be a bit warmer than today, while others will be a little cooler.
We will see high pressure shifting east today, allowing for southwest flow to develop. We should see some mixing later today and again Sunday, which helps push temperatures above freezing in some valley locations.
Most areas along & east of I-25 should be in the 50s regardless, with the exception of our higher elevation areas along the Pine Ridge.
Highs in the lower 60s will be common across the rest of the area. With temperatures tonight falling into the 20s for most areas, may see a brief window where a little freezing fog is possible. However, suspect that as the low clouds disrupt the cold air drainage, temperatures will actually warm as the clouds develop.
Cloudiness will linger thru the day, but should see gradual clearing from west- to-east during the evening and overnight hours as the upper trof over north Texas/southern OK drops sse into southwest Louisiana and then eastward along the the cntl Gulf states on Sunday. Surface and upper ridging will build into the area in the wake of the departing trof and bring pleasant wx to the region into midweek with cool overnight lows and mild daytime highs. Christmas will feel more like spring break with highs in the low to mid 70s. Toward midweek, southeast flow should resume in the llvls and the upper flow will transition to a southwesterly direction as the ridge departs.
214 AM MST Sat Dec 21 2019 Upper ridge will keep the forecast area warm and dry today.
352 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Early morning GOES 16 WV Imagery indicates an upper-level closed low spinning over NE Oklahoma. By tonight, this upper-level low will cut- off from the main flow as the ridge off to our west becomes more amplified in response to a long-wave trough/pineapple express coming onshore the west coast. Additionally, there will not be adequate warm- air advection to pump warmer temperatures into the region; and, given the clouds, afternoon temperatures will likely only warm to around 50.
High pressure will shift east of the area this weekend, resulting in increasing southwest flow aloft which should help weaken inversions.
/issued 351 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ Temperatures across the Midsouth are significantly warmer than we have seen the past several mornings, in the mid 30s to low 40s. Morning lows should stay above freezing across the area this morning and for the foreseeable future. We do not currently have any freezing or sub freezing temperatures in the forecast through the next 7 days. Clouds assoicated with the low will stretch across the entire Midsouth through the weekend. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the low to middle 50s Saturday and Sunday and Sunday morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
416 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 A compact closed upper low over southern Oklahoma will shift southeast through tonight, with the light showers coming to an end across our area by later today. Clouds are likely to hang around for the most part though, and with the low level flow collapsing, getting rid of the clouds may be tougher than model guidance suggests.
Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure will cross over region, maintaining dry and mild conditions for all of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Warmer air will filter in aloft, however with very light winds, high valleys trapped under strong inversions will continue to struggle mixing warmer air to the surface. As the ridge axis passes east of the Divide, strong southwest flow will spread across the CWA tonight.
There is a potential for fog tonight as warmer air moves over the cold and damp ground.
Early morning GOES 16 WV Imagery indicates an upper-level closed low spinning over NE Oklahoma. By tonight, this upper-level low will cut- off from the main flow as the ridge off to our west becomes more amplified in response to a long-wave trough/pineapple express coming onshore the west coast. Additionally, there will not be adequate warm- air advection to pump warmer temperatures into the region; and, given the clouds, afternoon temperatures will likely only warm to around 50.
/Issued 416 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ A compact closed upper low over southern Oklahoma will shift southeast through tonight, with the light showers coming to an end across our area by later today. Clouds are likely to hang around for the most part though, and with the low level flow collapsing, getting rid of the clouds may be tougher than model guidance suggests.
The upper level low over north Texas has slowed down and will gradually move southeast across Louisiana through Sunday. As the upper low moves east, drier air will filter in with PWATs below half an inch by this evening.
After a mostly clear night, the shallow radiation inversion has broke in the mountains shooting temperatures to the freezing mark already. Meanwhile, adjacent valleys still reside in the lower 20s as of 13Z.
Upper level ridging will bring about mild temperatures and fair weather for the Christmas Holiday. Rua A developing upper level low pressure system is located across Oklahoma and north central Texas this early morning. This system will move slowly east-southeast to the lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the weekend. An active sub tropical jet ahead of the upper level low will continue to stream in abundant mid and upper level east Pacific moisture. Upper level ridging will build in across the region in wake of this system. Toward the end of the week and the forecast period an approaching west coast trough will tap into increasing return flow Gulf moisture to introduce a chance for showers.
A split flow regime will allow a weak southern stream PV anomaly to slide south of the region today, before an expansive upper-level ridge begins to build into the region on Sunday. With some sunshine expected today and yet again a similar airmass to yesterday, expect temperatures to get a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's highs due to less snow cover remaining. Deitsch The synoptic pattern Sunday night will feature an amplifying ridge across much of the eastern CONUS in response to a longwave trough digging into the western CONUS.
Dry with afternoon high temperatures continuing to trend warmer today and again on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging across the Plains to flatten out on Sunday as an upper-level low travels east across the Gulf, allowing SE MI to be firmly entrenched in zonal flow.
As the upper level low exits the area, troughing will set into place throughout the region for the beginning of the upcoming week.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Scattered to numerous patches of showers continue across the BRO CWFA in advance of a closed 500 mb low pressure system located in the Central Plains and its associated trough, which extends southwest through Texas into northwest Mexico. Initially high rain chances will gradually wane throughout the day today, and end tonight, as the closed low moves southeast into Louisiana and the trough moves through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. A mid-level ridge of high pressure building in the wake of the low will produce fine conditions on Sunday with nearly clear skies and warmer, near normal temperatures.
351 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Temperatures across the Midsouth are significantly warmer than we have seen the past several mornings, in the mid 30s to low 40s. Morning lows should stay above freezing across the area this morning and for the foreseeable future. We do not currently have any freezing or sub freezing temperatures in the forecast through the next 7 days. Clouds assoicated with the low will stretch across the entire Midsouth through the weekend. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the low to middle 50s Saturday and Sunday and Sunday morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
541 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level ridge will begin to nose into our forecast area from the southwest today leading to a nice warmup with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
414 AM MST Sat Dec 21 2019 Upper ridge builds over Colorado today and tonight, bringing warmer temperatures to most of the region.
509 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Upper level ridging will start to build into the area on the backside of a cut-off low over southern OK as it progresses to the east.
448 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Today through tonight: An upper level cut-off low will drop southward into the Southern Plains today, with cyclogenesis over the northern gulf. Lows will fall into the low 40s by Sunday morning.
Long wave troughing over the west will bring the return of rain and snow to NorCal. A cold front will slowly push into the western part of the area Saturday afternoon. As the trough pushes east we will continue to see the cold front work through NorCal. Rain and snow will continue over the Sierra into Sunday afternoon as part of the upper level trough pushes through. Southerly flow will increase Sunday morning out a head of the cold front and this will bring breezy winds.
430 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level ridge will begin to nose into our forecast area from the southwest today leading to a nice warmup with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
With the passage of the mid level trough axis rain has ended for most of South Central Texas. Otherwise, clearing west to east today and warmer. Mostly sunny and slightly warmer on Sunday.
There is some haze out there this morning and temperatures are hovering around freezing. Went with a conservative forecast between the milder temps that could occur if the stratus develops and the cooler temps if skies end up being clear.
550 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 For the 21/12z TAFs, scattered showers will be possible across much of the ArkLaTex through 22/00z as a strong upper trough remains centered over Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. /Today through Sunday/ Strong vertical ascent associated with a potent upper trough over Southern Oklahoma continues to result in scattered areas of light rain across much of the area. However, rain should finally begin reaching the surface as the low-levels slowly become saturated. Very little change in precipitation coverage is expected for much of today as the upper trough slowly moves east into Southeast Oklahoma. Tonight and early Sunday morning, the upper trough will move south through East Texas and eventually southeast towards Southeast Louisiana/Southwest Mississippi.
Some high level moisture is overrunning a ridge of high pressure aloft. The northerly flow aloft will transition to more of a westerly flow by tonight, with the ridge axis oriented from southwest to northeast across the state tonight. High temperatures today should be warmer so no adjustments to those grids at this time. The upper level ridge axis will shift east of Colorado Sunday leaving a southwest flow behind it.
622 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure in control through the weekend.
310 AM MST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level ridge will be over the central and southern Rockies today. The ridge axis will pull into the Plains on Sunday with a strong southwest flow aloft across the forecast area. A mountain wave will occur over the Absaroka Mountains and adjacent Cody Foothills, but this wave doesn't appear to break not allowing the high winds to push into the adjacent foothills. Overall temperatures will be slightly warmer each day this weekend.
355 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Upper level ridging will start to build into the area on the backside of a cut-off low over southern OK as it progresses to the east.
/15/ Today through tonight: An upper level cut-off low will drop southward into the Southern Plains today, with cyclogenesis over the northern gulf. Lows will fall into the low 40s by Sunday morning.
Expect mostly cloudy skies today and highs in the lower 50s by this afternoon. Made some changes to wind speed as the low starts to move southeast. /issued 351 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ Temperatures across the Midsouth are significantly warmer than we have seen the past several mornings, in the mid 30s to low 40s. Morning lows should stay above freezing across the area this morning and for the foreseeable future. We do not currently have any freezing or sub freezing temperatures in the forecast through the next 7 days. Clouds assoicated with the low will stretch across the entire Midsouth through the weekend. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the low to middle 50s Saturday and Sunday and Sunday morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
An upper level ridge will begin to nose into our forecast area from the southwest today leading to a nice warmup with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
High pressure will control the pattern over the area, and generally southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to slowly climb.
Dry and warmer weather is expected across northern Arizona through Sunday with periods of mid and high level clouds.
315 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 A warm front moves across the region tonight.
1005 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure in control through the weekend.
Temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than last night. Given the overperformance of high temperatures today and a repeat performance set for tomorrow, went with the higher end of guidance for daytime temperatures.
357 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Quiet weather continues as high pressure slides east through the weekend.
130 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Due to high pressure to the east, quiet weather continues for the Quad State region with light winds. Cloud cover ahead of the low will move in from the south overnight with conditions partly cloudy near the I-64 corridor and more cloudy to the south.
breezy and unsettled conditions will prevail over the inland northwest today before a cold front begins to restore temperatures back toward seasonal normal.
Cloudy, breezy, and mild through Sunday before the next Pacific cold front comes in.
But today's snow melting, and if we decouple further than expected, the low clouds/fog will redevelop, especially in the morning.
South southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph were noted across the area on the return flow side of high pressure off to the southeast. Another mild day is on tap to ring in Astronomical Winter 2019-2020 on Sunday with highs even warmer than today.
237 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Current weather pattern is dominated by a broad h500 ridge that has set up a mild Chinook pattern bringing southwest flow across the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Low pressure will track across the Prairie Provinces of Canada through Sunday, dragging a weak cold front through the region Sunday afternoon. So will settle for highs in the lower 50s southwest today, and the 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. Tonight have accepted the model blend for lows, but again there will be uncertainty, with the valley areas cooler with the higher elevations significantly warmer. Sunday the dry cold front will pass through, with the cold advection lagging behind so another mild day. As the h500 ridge moves east with time, we expect a slow return to move normal temperatures for Christmas week.
202 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 The weekend is off to quite the pleasant start today, with temperatures on track to top out in the lower to middle 60s this afternoon. The midlevel ridge currently anchored across the Desert Southwest will translate eastward on Sunday, and with the ridge axis overhead and downslope warming at the surface, temperatures will climb at least a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees areawide. The pattern begins to shift early in the week as a large trough digs southward off of the California Coast, resulting in a transition to southwesterly flow aloft over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas.
231 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Temperature is the primary forecast challenge with strong warm air advection underway, a nearly depleted snowpack, a progressive upper ridge, and an approaching cold front. Very dry air remains in the low levels with nearly 30C dew point depressions and H85 and very steep surface inversions. The main story this week is the transition from unseasonably mild weather with upper ridge passage to the return of normal temps (highs near 40F) in the wake of a strong cold front and the digging of the Western US upper trough. Forecast highs reach the lower to mid 60s with 65F at Imperial (record 68), 61F at Valentine (record 65), and 60F at North Platte and Broken Bow (records 67 and 71).
1057 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Water vapor imagery and mean layer analyses from CIMMS place mid- upper level ridging over the western Caribbean, under assault from and energetic long wave trough complex digging into Texas. high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states reaches southwest to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. From synopsis, the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters remain wedged between a stationary front just north of Cuba and strong high pressure centered over the U. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the central Gulf today, deepening as it moves through the northeast Gulf tonight and Sunday morning.
Models have really struggled with this low-level moisture the last few days.