Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid level temps remain around -7 C with the 500 mb ridge axis overhead. Will keep scattered shower/thunderstorm chances for coastal areas and 50-60 percent across the interior with the highest coverage focusing across the nrn interior in the afternoon. Highs around 90 near the east coast to the lower 90s for the interior.
attendant cold front moves in from the northwest with the leading edge of the boundary reaching the northern CWA sometime around 18z.
A few additional showers may develop along the southeast Georgia coast overnight along a weak coastal trough. The area remains along the western edge of the Bermuda ridge with afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over land and nocturnal convection over the coastal waters. Overall the forecast area will be squeezed between the western periphery of the Bermuda Ridge and an upper level trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Northern Colorado remains under cyclonic westerly flow aloft with an embedded short wave trough aloft that will move out of the mountains later tonight. Cooler conditions will prevail through tomorrow, but soundings show the afternoon airmass will begin to de-stabilize with CAPE values between 700 and 1300 j/kg. The NAM shows an upper trough moving over northeast Colorado in the afternoon as the upper air pattern amplifies over Idaho and Nevada. Cooler temperatures will be the other stroy of the day with high temperatures on the plains only in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring dry and warmer weather to north central and northeastern Colorado over the weekend.
320 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A warm front will approach the region tonight bringing an increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.
228 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest into Friday bringing light winds and mainly clear skies.
Early afternoon dewpoints have already fallen into the 20s and 30s with a few hours of mixing to go, wouldn't be surprised in the least to see values in the low 20s or upper teens depending on location.
SFO Bridge Approach. Moderate to strong northerly winds will continue over the coastal waters as high pressure remains in place.
An upper level trough of low pressure across Northeast Louisiana into Southwest Louisiana and along the Upper Texas Coast will continue to help with the production of showers and possibly a thunderstorm over parts of East and Northeast Texas and Northwest and North Central Louisiana this afternoon and into the evening. This upper level trough is forecast to slowly move Northeast and convection over parts of Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana will shift into the forecast area. /issued 1106 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ Convection is slowly spreading northeast from the Gulf coast as an upper low moves along the coastline.
On Friday, high temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande. This trough axis will aid in the development of isolated showers and storms in the afternoon near the coastal plains today and again on Friday.
Another hot day is expected tomorrow despite a cold front entering northern zones Friday morning. The areas to the north of the front may see high temperatures near 5-10 degrees cooler while most everyone else will once again see highs 100+.
In terms of sensible weather, today will initially be cooler and more stable east of the Laramie Range with the passage of the weak boundary. Some small hail is possible as freezing levels lower but the severe threat should be low due to unfavorable diurnal timing. Friday may end up being more cloudy and cool east of the Laramie Range with northerly flow and some residual dynamic lift from the slowly departing trough.
A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms was associated with a cold front moving into northwest North Dakota. Another line of showers with a thunderstorm embedded was moving through northwest North Dakota along and ahead of a cold front. This cold front will push into northwestern ND 12z-15z Thursday, then slowly shift from northwest to southeast later this afternoon through the overnight period. Thus, with proximity of the cold front and enough instability present, expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms west and north, but deep layer shear is absent and thus not expecting any organized severe thunderstorms to materialize at this time. Highest thunderstorm chances today will continue across the west and north, closest to the surface cold front and its movement to the southeast later this afternoon.
A weak cold front will result in a wind shift to the north at KHOB and KCNM around 30/15z. Another hot day is expected tomorrow despite a cold front entering northern zones Friday morning. The areas to the north of the front may see high temperatures near 5-10 degrees cooler while most everyone else will once again see highs 100+.
Conversely, further west, dew points are roughly 10 degrees higher and temperatures are running at least a few degrees cooler. These trends are related to the effects of high pressure being nudged southward due to a weather system passing to the north. The high pressure has separated into two main anticyclonic regions. In between is weak upper troughing.
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The highest rainfall totals this afternoon have occurred across three separate hot spots. The most widespread impacts appear to be street flooding although a few reports were received of water approaching or entering homes and businesses in Sulphur and Carencro Convection has become more scattered this afternoon as the highest atmospheric moisture is shunted off to the northeast along with the departing upper trough.
158 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The regional view from space is showing cloud streets crossing the Keys Island Chain from southeast to northwest, with a few small showers popping along the northern edge of the larger islands of the Lower Keys.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic and GFS ensemble output suggest that the weak quasi-stationary upper trough will slowly dissipate during the period, while thickness values increase. The combination of the trough and moisture will contribute to isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA Today.
1120 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Upper low is spinning over Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with a trough stretching across the northwestern states. Cool air associated with the trough will keep highs today in the 70s. Lingering moisture/instability may support a few more showers/storms on Friday before the trough exits the region. One more day of highs in the 70s is expected before much warmer weather returns with a large upper level ridge.
221 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
339 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 H5 analysis tonight had a fairly zonal pattern across the lower 48 with a fairly active northern stream.
The temperatures will be near or slightly warmer than seasonal values. An offshore high pressure system will continue to interact with an inland area of lower pressure. The trough will also advect the extensive marine stratus cloud shield offshore into the coast as winds turn onshore.
Through tonight and into tomorrow, the high will continue to slide east as southerly moist return flow increases. By Friday night a cold front will approach the area, assisting in southerly flow. Troughiness will extend south into the Missouri Valley from a closed low in Manitoba, as a cool front stretches from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains.
As such, cooler and drier air is expected to filter across the region with dewpoints falling back into the 50s with high temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s with a few locations in the upper 80s. Ridge of high pressure over the east coast Carolinas is holding pretty strong for tonight and Friday with southerly flow to continue. Showers and storms will be more numerous Friday and with increased cloud cover highs will be several degrees cooler in the northern sections.
146 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: As an upper trough moves up from the southwest waves of rain will continue across the region. Today and Tonight: Some showers have developed overnight in response to an upper-level trough of low pressure along the Gulf Coast. The highest POPs and likely highest rainfall accumulations through today and tonight will be found along and south of the trough's center - or across southeast Mississippi.
1033 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest today into Friday bringing light winds and mainly clear skies.
The storm system should move along the warm front, making it near the KS/MO border around 9 AM. A boundary with warm front characteristics seems to be the main focus for severe storm development this afternoon and is likely to set up somewhere across northeastern KS and northern MO, likely a little further south than yesterday's activity. SB CAPE will range from 2000-4000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 kts, with dewpoints in the low 70s again. Further into the evening, as storms move southeast, they will eventually form a line as the main upper trough and surface cold front moves in, and low level jet ramps up again.
Then a temperature forecast dependents on clouds, rain and the southern push of the cold front into AR. Surface dew point temperatures have also come up to around 70 to the lower 70s in most locations.
A cold front has already moved south past KDHT and KGUY and is now about to work its way through KAMA. The northerly winds across the Oklahoma Panhandle today will be a precursor to a cold frontal passage late tonight to early Friday morning.
157 PM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the west coast will gradually build inland through Friday, keeping dry conditions over the region. Very dry conditions and tranquil weather will continue through the end of the week with high pressure across the West.
Main pressure rises will not move into the area until late Friday, so only marginally cooler most areas.
A cold front will turn winds to the north/northeast at KCNM and KHOB Friday morning, but low clouds are not expected behind the front. /issued 424 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ Upper ridge extending up from Northern Mexico across the area today and Friday will result if hot temperatures for the region. The ridge axis along the West Coast will be displaced east as an upper trough moves ashore and pushes east. However high pressure will remain over the region. Ahead of the trough a moist south wind expected but behind it a west/southwest downslope wind will result in much warmer and drier conditions.
514 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
648 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
Otherwise, it should be mostly cloudy overnight over the inland areas and muggy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Gulf moisture return continues today around the ridge centered off the mid Atlantic Coast. A look at visible satellite imagery shows a nice cumulus field over the CWA, with some enhancement where convergence is occurring with the anti-cyclonic flow around the high. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to continue into Friday night with mild overnight lows mostly in the low 70s.
201 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cold front is currently draped along the Laramie Range with cooler and more moist conditions across the plains. The cooler temps and higher RH values will end fire weather concerns.
348 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Weak upper low currently over the area, enhancing development of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures have had a difficult time getting past the convective temperature in the lower 80s for very long. Upper low will only slowly shear out over the next 36 to 48 hours and will have to continue mention of POPs in the 40-60 percent range tonight and Friday.
257 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cold front moving through western North Dakota this afternoon will be the focus for increasing thunderstorms across west into central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. With a broad ridge in place its likely any weak cold front will by dry and provide little relief from the hot weather.
North of this boundary some recovery of RH has occurred due to cooler temperatures but the coolest remains just to our north and will not really make a push through until tonight with main upper trough passage. Temperatures a bit cooler north of the boundary by 3 to 5 degrees with minimal changes in the 4 corners region. Moisture still extremely limited but forcing from the trough and the secondary cool push looks to favor our northeast mountains late this afternoon and evening. Fairly noticeable cool down on Friday as the upper trough swings through the region. A strong downstream blocking ridge over the Atlantic will keep troughing over Great Lakes region going into the weekend. This will allow another Pacific trough to swing across the Great Basin before de-amplifying over the Rockies.
High pressure builds in Friday leading to warmer temperatures (highs well into the 80s) along with dry conditions.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a moderately amplified pattern across the Nation with a ridge axis to our west, over the Great Basin, with a trough axis down stream sweeping east through the Plains States. Resulting northwest flow across the upper Plains has brought a little dry Canadian air south, which will hang out locally through the weekend as the western ridge axis slowly shifts into the Plains. expect dry conditions with temperatures running in the lower half of the 80s today, rising into the upper 80s for Sunday.
More widespread thunderstorm development will occur over the higher terrain of NM this afternoon and this activity will likely form into one or two clusters or a line that should make a run toward the western Panhandles and South Plains this evening, with a much better chance of rain along with a threat of strong to severe storms. /issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/ The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's front will translate eastward into the Ohio Valley today with a high amplitude ridge from the desert southwest into the Canadian Rockies. Further west, the next trough axis is coming ashore the Pacific NW.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Broad area of mid/upper level high pressure sprawling from the southwest U.
High pressure over the central plains is expected to build across Indiana and the Ohio Valley tonight through Sunday.
An upper level ridge axis across the western part of Wyoming will nudge eastward tonight and Sunday, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday. A weak disturbance aloft will quickly move across Wyoming and eastward into the high plains in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to return to the high plains and the mountains Sunday afternoon as this upper level disturbance and associated llvl convergence boundary parallel the I-25 corridor and eventually move eastward.
This trough is embedded in the longwave trough over the Western Great Lakes and will make its way southeast from Manitoba, through northern Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin by tomorrow morning.
240 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon but otherwise dry and pleasant weather will persist through tomorrow with lows tonight near 60 and highs tomorrow in the low 80s.
Early this morning, isolated showers were coincident with a surface cold front that was moving south and east. Behind this cold front, drier and cooler air was located.
Weaker gradient and falling Tds should allow overnight lows to fall toward consensus values around 60 degrees, slightly warmer in urban areas. Impressive upper low on today's WV imagery is progged to translate across the northern Great Lakes on Sunday.
131 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 As a high pressure ridge loft shifts east onto the northern and central plains, a Pacific low pressure trough will move across Idaho and western Montana spreading limited moisture and instability into the area with some mountains showers developing. Southwest winds will pick up ahead of the trough with warming. The flow aloft will be more zonal with weak ridges and troughs moving through in increased flow into midweek. High pressure will continue over the area from the middle to the end of the week, bringing above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s, relatively light to breezy wind, along with afternoon to evening thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain.
240 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. North of the ridge some troughing will be in the forecast area. Temperatures continue climbing through the upper 80s and will top out in the low 90s for most locations. Temperatures remain on track for the low 90s this afternoon and with cloud cover and winds around 5 mph overnight expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Surface ridging will continue from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico.
A weak trough will continue to provide some gusty southerly winds across the Southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert through Sunday.
Sunday night, will monitor for the low potential for storms mainly over northern Oklahoma. Cannot rule out the potential that a complex or two of storms from the High Plains moves southeast and affects some places in Oklahoma and north Texas.
Surface and upper level ridging will build across the Florida Peninsula and GOMEX. With less convection and cloud cover, temps will reach the lower to mid 90s inland with upper 80s along the coast.
A dying cold front is expected to make its way into the area from the north on Sunday, with some slight drying. A longwave trough will be in place across all of the eastern U.
438 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 The showers and storms near the Tennessee border have generally remained under severe limits, with an occasional storm producing hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts in the low 60mph range. Additional showers and storms have also been firing along the weak cold front that is straddling the Ohio River at this hour. The first is a weak cold front across southern Indiana that is slowly pushing to the southeast.
Most models today are depicting an area of showers/thunderstorms developing across the high plains to our west and then propagating them east/southeast across mainly southwest Oklahoma and Red River valley late tonight into Sunday morning.
220 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Aviation Low pressure will move east today with only a few lingering showers through this afternoon.
A dying cold front is expected to make its way into the area from the north on Sunday, with some slight drying.
With a weakening but low-amplitude ridge to our north/northwest, the local flow will remain quite deep mainly from the east well into the middle of the week.
Warmer with Isolated Late Day Storms Mainly Along and South of Upper ridge of high pressure starting to build in over southern Colorado this morning. This is bringing in warmer air aloft. The net result will be warmer temperatures and less convection. So, while we will likely see some convection along the Highway 160 corridor late in the day, it will probably be fairly isolated and not too strong. Look for high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the eastern plains. Min temps at night will drop into the 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to lower 60s for the plains.
850 mb thermal troughing remains across Lake Superior and the U.
This should help kick start daytime warming across that region where the warmest temperatures are expected today, outside of the higher elevations of the hills/mountains in southern Monterey and San Benito Counties.
With clouds around for much of the day in the north, highs will be mostly upper 60s while rest of the area will see 70s with far southeastern ND reaching the lower 80s where sun will be more prevalent and ground is quite a bit drier. High pressure over the area Sunday but enough moisture in the 850-700mb layer for likely cumulus development with daytime heating, especially NW Minnesota.
The subtropical ridge is also in the process of restrengthening over the region, creating additional stable layers partially caused by subsidence over at the least the southern half of the region. Heat index values are a bit cooler than yesterday, generally remaining below the 105 degree mark as the mixing has been more efficient than yesterday. The ridge will strengthen further tomorrow with temperatures being a degree or so warmer than today and heat index values staying below 105.
Trough of low pressure is currently over the interior and will move through this evening.
An outflow was mover the northern and central portions of the state with a ridge across of Southeast Texas. The exception was a trough just inland of the coast. May see isolated activity elsewhere but think the ridging aloft will suppress the activity over the central and southern counties.
Dry conditions are expected Sunday as upper ridging builds in. Highs will be in the mid and upper 90s with lows in the lower 70s.
349 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Sunday morning with seasonable temperatures and dry weather. As the high shifts east on Sunday, moisture will steadily return back into the region.
The first is a weak cold front across southern Indiana that is slowly pushing to the southeast.
Ridge is expected to shift east of the forecast area. Surface frontal boundary associated with the trough will meander eastward with this system.
1018 AM PDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will move through the Inland Northwest today bringing locally breezy conditions to the East Slopes of the Cascades.
Sunday could get interesting as a cold front nudges south Sunday afternoon, and meanwhile, a warm front will be on our doorstep in our south. The main focus for severe potential appears to be in the northern half of the CWA for Sunday afternoon/evening near the cold front ,with strong cold pools may push severe potential down to near the Nebraska/Kansas border. Our chance and timing of any potential storms highly depends on where this cold front will be, and will also depend on where this front may end up stalling.
A weak upper trough will cross the area today and tonight with a modest amount of moisture. Models show that the trough will bring some cooler air, and aside from Central Oregon, temperatures will be similar to yesterday. With clearing skies tonight, lows will be cooler than last night.
In the meantime, an associated surface trof was moving into northwest Minnesota. Plenty of clouds were advecting into the area ahead of the surface trof and ahead of another upper short wave trof. There is still an opportunity for some isolated thunderstorms yet through this evening ahead of the surface trof. On Sunday, the vertically stacked system moves to the eastern Great Lakes as the low opens into a short wave trof by afternoon. This will allow high pressure to build across the region Sunday.
Upper ridge will begin to build into the area on Sunday, with frontal boundary just north of I-20 to begin lifting nwd and will leave low pops in northern sections of area on Sunday. Thereafter, pops to remain very low with upper ridge, with northern fringe of area enhancements dependent on evolution of ridge, as nw flow around topside may bring either diurnal overnight mcs near the area, or possible aftn development. Towards mid week, this upper ridge to begin to break down and southerly flow will deepen, allowing for isold to sct convection areawide.
The weak upper level trough will exit the region later today, and has already touched off an isolated thunderstorm near Winter Rim and another in the Warner mountains.