Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SW flow continues to increase across Kansas, in response to strong trough diving into the Great Basin. 12z NAM slides initial wind shift/cold front to a Hays-Ness City-Scott City line by about 3 PM, but areas south of this boundary will have no problem reaching upper 60s and lower 70s once again.
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKS TO ANOTHER LEE TROF WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW WHICH ALONG WITH THICKNESS INCREASES WILL HELP WARM TEMPS EVEN MORE TOMORROW.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP FOR SHRA ON FRIDAY MRNG/AFTN THANKS TO WAA IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
/ISSUED 309 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015/ Near record warmth ongoing across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon even as a weak surface trof moves across the area.
640 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IN ROADS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
934 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
327 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS WITH RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME WHERE A RIDGETOP INVERSION/NEGATIVE WIND SHEAR/AND STRONG PERPENDICULAR WINDS RELATIVE TO THE RIDGES WILL EXIST. BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 AND ALONG THE RIDGES MAY STILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OR SO WITH LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
139 PM PST SAT JAN 9 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STRATUS HAS LIFTED BUT BEEN STUBBORN TO HOLD IN ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS SRN BREVARD/OSCEOLA SOUTH TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES WILL ALLOW A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS E CENTRAL FL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA LATER THIS MORNING.
/ISSUED 958 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ COLD FRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH NW LA THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT LA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE HILINE COUNTIES HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 5PM THIS AFTN. CONFIDENT PREDOMINANTLY VFR WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KGTF TO KLWT LINE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO MONTANA. OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FREEZING FOG FARTHER NORTH. WHEN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM AND ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WHEN PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
1248 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SW WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 15Z-18Z ON SUNDAY, WITH BAND OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EXTREME W TN WILL TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN OH THROUGH TONIGHT. BUT THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND FALLING MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM PULLS NEWD OUT OF NW MISSISSIPPI/SE ARKANSAS AND TRAVERSES WEST TN. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, -SHRA WILL CHANGE TO -RASN AND -SN.
AS FOR THE LOW STRATUS. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM PULLS NEWD OUT OF NW MISSISSIPPI/SE ARKANSAS AND TRAVERSES WEST TN. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER.
WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS PROBABLY MORE OF AN ARTIFACT OF FRESH SNOW COVER FOR NEARLY EVERY LOCATION.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IN BAKER COUNTY. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FROM BAKER CITY TO ONTARIO AND NORTH TO CAMBRIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FROM GREAT FALLS/CASCADE COUNTY NORTH TO THE HILINE, RESULTING IN BROAD AREA WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND FREEZING FOG. CONFIDENT PREDOMINANTLY VFR WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KGTF TO KLWT LINE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO MONTANA. OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FREEZING FOG FARTHER NORTH. WHEN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM AND ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WHEN PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
/ISSUED 945 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONES WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND OVERCAST COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATO-CU. MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE POP GRID (REMOVING ALL BUT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH 09/18Z) AND SOME TWEAKS TO THE WIND AND CLOUD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS FOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. /ISSUED 530 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEING USHERED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MUCH DRIER AIR COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILDS SOUTH.
1139 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 Precipitation is spreading northeast into the Ozarks this morning while sub-freezing air continues to spread in from the northwest. This is just shy of winter weather advisory criteria, and with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing this morning, and the fact that it's a weekend with less traffic on the roads, impacts shouldn't be enough to warrant an advisory for these areas.
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DUE TO COMBINATION OF BEST U/L FORCING LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE COOLER MORE STABLE SHELF WATERS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
1118 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY.
Freezing fog will also be a threat tonight and again Sunday night, particularly in valleys where fresh snow and some snow melthas occurred.
ANTICIPATE SOME GRADUAL THINNING OF THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVELS SLOWLY START TO DRY OUT TODAY. POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY BUT WE WILL STILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT THE PRIMARY AFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.
1138 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 PATTERN WAS PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS AS A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO QUEBEC. WEST OF THE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDED UP THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOTED OVER MONTANA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
223 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS LINKED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE EASTERN GULF IS PEPPERED BY CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA OF MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF WEST TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN PRECIP IN AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVES IN LATER TODAY. PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
1153 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1101 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND TEMPS HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 50S THUS FAR. THIS BATCH IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH NW AL IN THE EARLY EVENING.
244 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KAEX-KLCH AT 09/20Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/ SOUTHWEST AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL NORTHWEST FL AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DESPITE RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR INLAND.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SO EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WITH A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO PLACE.
AREAS OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHED THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER MOST OF SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS MON NIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE RED RIVER ON TUE WITH THE CORRESPONDING WIND SHIFT. ALL SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT.
However, decreasing cloud cover is likely overnight along with calmer winds, so look for lows down into the single digits near the I-70 corridor to the lower teens(F) closer to the Oklahoma border. This will draw slightly warmer air northward into the area along the Colorado border with H85 temperatures around 5C below by mid afternoon. Sunday will see the upper trough over Canada and the northern U.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION BUT A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE WHICH WILL NOT BUDGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIZZLE FALLING FROM THE STRATUS DECK WHICH WILL FREEZE IN AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING CREATING SOME SLICK CONDITIONS.
THIS COMBINED WITH A WNW(DOWNSLOPE) UPPER FLOW AT 500/700MB WILL GIVE THE CWA A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
319 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 The center of the upper trough was over central Arkansas early this afternoon with associated snowfall coming to an end nearby.
There is an outside chance of some freezing fog overnight, but chances currently look to low to include in TAFs.
ANY BREAKS FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED TO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE PRECIP COMPLEX APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING INLAND.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FROM GREAT FALLS/CASCADE COUNTY NORTH TO THE HILINE, RESULTING IN BROAD AREA WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND FREEZING FOG. AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HI-LINE INCLUDING KHVR AND KCTB WITH CIGS/VIS AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SLOPES SO TRIMMED BACK POPS ON POPS AROUND BISHOP.
1214 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS WITH RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
1247 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY.
1031 AM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH THAT BROUGHT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE ROCKIES THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE THE CLEAREST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THICKENING FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLOUDING UP AGAIN AS THE TROUGH FROM THE NW DROPS THROUGH UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO ALBERTA. THERE IS A SRN STREAM THAT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH ENERGY HEADING TOWARD THE SWRN CONUS.
NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
The big question continues to be how intense of a deformation area will form as a mid/upper low moving east into nern AR ejects ne during the night time hours. However, still in question is how quickly the sfc temps can get close to freezing with a relatively warm ground beneath. The overall 500 mb pattern will consist of a de-amplifying trough over the eastern states and a developing weak trough over the central states. The associated cold front will bring a reinforcing surge of very cold air.
226 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS WITH RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOP TO THE WEST WITH A PAIR OF EMBEDDED WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
303 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST N OF I 80 WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED AMPLIFY INTO A BROAD ERN CONUS RIDGE MUCH OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING.
400 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BUILD OVER ALL AREAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHTER NORTH BREEZE IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE THAN FROM THE TROPICAL STORM INFLUENCED UPPER LOW FROM LAST WEEK.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR A BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR DFW TO DRT AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/ AN OVERVIEW OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWED A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO WACO. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO CENTRAL OK.
WITH LOW TO MID 70S LIKELY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE FAR EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEEKEND.
Look for a drier but cooler trend by midweek. I also slowed the next warm front a little bit compared to the previous forecast. Until that time, much of the stratiform precipitation associated with the warm front will remain west of the Cascades. 06Z TAFS: A very moist warm front will push across the region tonight and Saturday.
BUT MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. /ISSUED / CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINGERING DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. TONIGHT AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
123 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. 4 OR SO ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT. MORE INTERESTINGLY THE VALUE WAS THE HIGHEST SINGLE DAY TOTAL SINCE DOLLY PASSED THROUGH ON JULY 23 2008 /6. THIS WAS THE LATEST FOR SUCH A RAIN DUMP AND THE ONLY ONE IN THE TOP THREE NOT RELATED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE WARM FRONT IS SPREADING RAIN INTO THE COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW OVERCAST STRATUS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AT THE MOMENT, OUR CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL OFF NICELY. THE END RESULT OF GOOD WAA MENTIONED ABOVE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
311 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WET GROUND SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
255 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THEN RIDGING MOVES IN AND WILL HELP TO ERODE CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE. TODAYS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS.
A RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARM DAYS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY.
241 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA. WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE. LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
555 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
444 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SW TX/NRN MX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE.
SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA. AND THE OTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER NW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF AXIS. WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL LA. ALONG WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF. THE HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONVECTION BEING VERY EFFICIENT AT RAIN PRODUCTION. THOUGH HOW QUICKLY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OUT WEST BEGINS TO CUT OFF AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH WEST TX AND NRN MEXICO.
Meanwhile, the upper levels are characterized by a large area of SW flow between upper ridge axis along the Atlantic coast and split flow troughing stretching from the SW CONUS up through the Great Lakes. This low level ESE/SE flow will be important initially as it keeps the low levels fairly dry. The best coverage of light rain showers looks to get going around or just after sunset as a low level jet arrives ahead of the upper trough axis.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH SURFACE TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROF FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. A MILD AND DRY WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE TROF AND A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER.
SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.