Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
415 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
An amplified mid level ridge is centered over eastern NM and the TX Panhandle, with a narrow but deep trough to its east, extending down to a TUTT low over the Gulf.
High pressure over the western Great Lakes will continue to provide dry and pleasant weather across Central Indiana through the weekend. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place across Wisconsin and Michigan. This was providing a cooler NE surface flow to Indiana. along with dew point temperatures in the lower 60s. Water Vapor imagery continued to show a large ridge aloft over the western plains states. Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern tonight as the large ridge remains anchored over the western plains. This will continue to keep subsidence and high pressure in place across the Great Lakes.
A cold front will enter the area late tonight and make some slow progression through the day tomorrow. Highs Friday will vary from around 90 or the low 90s in the north to the hot 100s in the south as compressional warming ahead of the front and a bit of downslope will give the southern TX Panhandle one more scorcher.
Upper pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a deep trough over the eastern U. and a ridge across the Rockies and plains 00z Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 12z Mon with a trough over the eastern U. and a trough in central Canada. The trough in central Canada will dig into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue and will remain in the area through Thu with the sfc front stalling to the south of the area. Could see some cumulus on Friday flirt with high-end MVFR with diurnal development along a slow moving trough pushing south across the Upper Peninsula.
A weak cold front will linger around the northern WI/U.
An expansive plume of monsoonal moisture continues to rotate around the upper ridge centered over New Mexico and NW Texas. For tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase across the western Sandhills with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and even a few strong storms by late evening portions of the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska as models forecast an upper low developing in far northeast Colorado. Temperatures were trended downward closer to the cooler MET guidance. As the weak closed low moves slowly across south central Nebraska Friday, likely POPs expected across central Nebraska Friday morning.
143 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Friday with much lower humidity.
These areas will have the highest precipitable water (PW) values (up to 200% of normal), although much of the region will be 100 to 150% of normal through the period.
Temperatures are in the middle 90s which is about 1-3 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be back in the lower to upper 70s with partly cloudy skies. For tomorrow, dry weather is expected to continue as the sub-tropical ridge continues to have a hold on our weather pattern.
Tonight: We're already seeing the impacts from several waves which originated out of the Southwest Monsoon, rotating around the broad mid-level trough in the Central CONUS.
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight and Friday with much lower humidity and pleasant weather.
1200 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Currently - A broad lower level trough stretches from Florida to the eastern Bahamas, while an Atlantic ridge reaches towards South Florida. This coupled with upper level diffluence, thanks to an upper level trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico, resulted in rounds of showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning. Short Term Update - The synoptic features affecting our weather will change subtly, with the trough shifting a bit further west and sharpening. A broad trough across Cuba and a ridge reaching the southeastern United States maintains gentle to moderate east breezes across Keys waters.
Longwave upper-level troughing will continue tonight and Friday across the region with a similar pattern in place. Morning fog will dissipate midmorning with increasing convective mixing and cumulus development along the higher elevations by midday. Once again, highest PoPs will be along the higher elevations of the mountains and the Cumberland Plateau. A blocking pattern with strong ridges over the desert SW and the western Atlantic will maintain a broad trough over the eastern Conus through the weekend.
High pressure over the Four Corners will amplify through the forecast period with a troughing pattern to our east. This in conjunction with northwesterly flow aloft will keep our temperatures in the lower 90s until the foreseeable future.
136 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Light W-WNW flow aloft persists over the region, on the N-NNE periphery of an upper level ridge. At the start of the period, an upper ridge spans the western half of the country with its high centered over New Mexico. The tri- state region remains under northwest flow on the eastern side of the ridge. The disturbance from the previous day continues to rotate around the ridge on its eastern side, generating shower and thunderstorm chances in the morning (mainly for the eastern part of the region). There will likely be a lull in precipitation midday followed by an additional opportunity for showers and storms in the afternoon and evening behind the low as daytime heating occurs.
A large, broad area of high pressure on the surface chart extends across the southern Great Lakes and influences the lower Ohio River Valley as well. A fetch of higher dew point air helps fuel an MCS to the west, and an inverted trof of lower pressure to the east.
Southwest to northeast storm motion will bring isolated storms into the Snake Plain by late afternoon with the highest probability east of Boise. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley, in the KTWF/KJER area, and over the central Idaho mountains east of KMYL and Idaho City.
Medium to High High pressure will continue to dominate this period. The diurnal CU field has set up near some of the higher dew points in SC WI while rather low dew points in the 40s have prevailed in much of the eastern areas.
Diffuse upper level troughing pattern will persist across mid state thru at least mid portion of next work week. Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping once again for iso/sct shwrs/iso tstms mainly across srn and the higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. A second upper low system has been consistently depicted by consensus model runs of moving across central Canada and thus keeping upper level troughing over the eastern half of the contiguous U. This due to deepening upper level troughing influences across the southeast contiguous U. Looks like upper level troughing pattern will become a little more organized by the mid portion of next work week also by taking on more of a broad structure appearance across the eastern contiguous U.
243 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a weak frontal boundary draped from the Mid Atlantic, west-southwestward through TN and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Skies will clear and winds will become light, allowing temps to fall into the lower 70s. An upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge of high pressure building into the Plains.
1221 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Vsbl sat loop indicates the persistence of this low stratus. Other than a stray shower or storm, the area should remain dry trough this evening.
While a majority of the area will stay dry, high resolution guidance indicates potential for a few isolated storms this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains. The upper ridge of high pressure currently anchored over the region will remain fairly stationary through Friday, with another very hot day expected with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s most locations with mainly dry conditions. Overnight lows both tonight and Friday night will remain mild, in the lower to middle 70s for most.
224 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Expansive high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build eastward across our region during the remainder of the week. A weak trough in northwesterly flow aloft is set to translate through the area on Friday. A subtle increase in mid-level moisture associated with this trough will be evident along the NY/PA border region, and this combined with some lake breeze interaction may yield a shower or storm in the Southern Tier. High pressure will look to dominate most of the short term forecast period.
1137 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Upper trough axis remains across the Tennessee Valley today with some weak boundary layer convergence east of the trough axis near the Cumberland Plateau. Afternoon convection is expected again today with greatest coverage across the higher elevations and also the southern valley where low-level moisture and instability is highest around 2000 J/Kg. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 87 70 / 50 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 86 69 / 30 20 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 69 87 68 / 30 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 65 84 64 / 40 20 40 40.
It will be another cooler night with lows in the 50s outside of the urban center. Northeast winds will keep the lakeshore areas cooler again Friday with highs inland in mid 80s Friday, mid to even upper 70s at the shore.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the most unstable air that the RAP analyzes over the Lower Susq Valley. A weak upper level trough will help form a wave along the front that is stalled south of the area. Synoptically, there is a mean weakness in the height field over the region with the mean upper ridge over the western CONUS.
500mb high pressure will retreat westward into the Four Corners region this weekend, allowing for a trough to deepen and extend southwestward into the Western Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 1050 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ The latest mid and upper level analysis continues to show a closed high with its associated ridge centered across New Mexico and northwestern Texas. This afternoon, the RAP indicates that the mid-level vort energy will weaken slightly as it rides southward along the eastern edge of the ridge. This will bring weak forcing across the ArkLaTex and into Deep East Texas on the eastern edge of the ridge. Highs will range from the upper 80s in southwestern Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma to the lower 90s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana.
337 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A large upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the Four Corners area. Monsoonal moisture has been riding over the ridge and bringing localized heavy rain to parts of the plains over the past few days. Convection may be focused on the nose of the low level jet.
High pressure aloft centered near NM/TX panhandle ridging toward SE AZ with increasing heights and temperatures at 500 mb. While we will be slightly warmer at the surface this afternoon, overall instability will be less. Thunderstorms should still be able to develop over the higher terrain. Humidity levels will remain fairly high even though temperatures will be a bit warmer than average. 6", with the lowest from Tucson south into Santa Cruz and southern Cochise Counties. Given the general downturn, less moisture/instability, and lack of steering flow, storms should favor the higher terrain through the afternoon. The high pressure will remain in a fairly favorable position from New Mexico into the Four Corners region with east to southeasterly flow aloft and more typical moisture values for early August.
The upper level trough axis and residual boundary remain stretched across much of Central AL Friday. An amplified ridge is over the Rockies and a weakening upper level low is expected to be over the Northern Gulf as we go into the weekend.
The upper ridging over the 4 corners influencing SETX with subsidence and NNE winds aloft.
In fact, with little movement in the western ridge, any eastward progression of convection seems quite limited at this point with the forecast area remaining dry through much of the weekend.
331 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Updated at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019 The Ohio Valley sits in front of a large ridge that continues to sit centered over the Plains. By morning, lows across southern Indiana will drop to the low 60s and upper 60s in southern Kentucky. The Ohio Valley will be in between two large ridges, one out of the western CONUS and the other out over the southwest Atlantic. We will be left in a persistent baggy trough axis. This inverted trough axis will serve as a focus for convective development especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
So far most of the precipitation has developed over the higher plains of the western Dakotas.
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure stretched from southern Ontario westward into eastern Iowa continues to bring pleasant weather to the area. High pressure is forecast to remain centered over eastern Michigan through the day on Friday. Temperatures will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer for lows and highs as the airmass across the region modifies.
/issued 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ The center of our high pressure can be clearly seen rotating on satellite over the TX/OK Panhandles, and temperatures are certainly reflecting this on the West Texas Mesonet this afternoon. The ridge will begin to migrate westward late tomorrow, but not in time to provide relief from the heat.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a weak frontal boundary draped from the Mid Atlantic, west-southwestward through TN and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Skies will clear and winds will become light, allowing temps to fall into the lower 70s. An upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge of high pressure building into the Plains.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Scattered convection from the remnant MCS continues to spread southward along the lower MS River Valley, mainly east of our region. Otherwise, expect an uneventful night with temperatures falling back into the lower to mid 70s by early Friday morning with some lingering cloud cover. A similar day will unfold on Friday as the upper level ridge to our west remains the dominant feature across our region. Weak disturbances rounding the northern and eastern side of the ridge will contribute to some isolated to widely scattered convection through the day, but most areas will remain dry once again as temperatures climb back into the lower 90s with some isolated mid 90s possible along and south of I-20.
Any showers will be more limited overnight and mainly north and northwest of CAE closer to Piedmont trough. with wet bulb zero lower due to the upper trough.
High pressure stretched from southern Ontario westward into eastern Iowa continues to bring pleasant weather to the area. High pressure is forecast to remain centered over eastern Michigan through the day on Friday. Temperatures will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer for lows and highs as the airmass across the region modifies.
An amplified mid level ridge is currently centered over eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle with a narrow but deep trough located to its east extends down into the north central Gulf. After initiating in eastern Kansas, the expectation is for these storms to follow the edge of the ridge southward into NE OK and NW AR late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 88 70 86 / 30 50 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 69 86 / 20 30 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 68 86 / 20 30 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 85 64 84 / 20 40 30 60.
/issued 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
In the short term period, we will remain just to the east of a ridge aloft over the western half of the country. The mid level flow will be rather slack in our area, with a trof axis over the Deep South, and a general trof over the northeastern quadrant of the country. Meanwhile, a ridge of high surface pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, should have enough stabilizing influence over us to prevent most deep moist convection in our region. Otherwise, expect rain-free and mostly clear conditions with near seasonable temps (except tonight's lows, which will still be in the lower half of the 60s across the region). An upper level ridge looks to remain centered across the southwest U. with downstream troughing over the eastern U.
Thus, increased pops for the night as a slow moving short wave trough moves east. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be in place to start off this forecast period.
803 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 800 PM CDT Our stretch of remarkably quiescent mid-summer weather continues tonight with sprawling high pressure overhead. Another tranquil night is on tap with lows dipping into the mid 50s across outlying locales and into the low to mid 60s closer to Chicago. It will be another cooler night with lows in the 50s outside of the urban center. Northeast winds will keep the lakeshore areas cooler again Friday with highs inland in mid 80s Friday, mid to even upper 70s at the shore.
Expect little change in conditions through tomorrow with a dry SW flow aloft in between a trough along the coast and a ridge of high pressure across the central U. The ridge starts building into CA Friday night ushering in a warming trend for the weekend.
1021 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Expansive high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build eastward across our region during the remainder of the week. High pressure centered over the Upper Great lakes late this evening will drift to the east across our region overnight and Friday. A weak trough in northwesterly flow aloft is set to translate through the area on Friday. A subtle increase in mid-level moisture associated with this trough will be evident along the NY/PA border region, and this combined with some lake breeze interaction may yield a shower or storm in the Southern Tier. High pressure will look to dominate most of the short term forecast period.
Storms will first form over higher terrain, then moving into the lower elevations in the late afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed mainly over the higher terrain across northern Arizona today. For Friday into the weekend, expect continued daily chances for afternoon scattered thunderstorms mainly along the high terrain.
High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will provide for dry conditions and mostly clear skies the next few days, other than scattered afternoon cumulus development. Dewpoints over central IL this afternoon are primarily upper 50s to around 60 as the high continues to push dry air into the region.
610 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast ridges through the weekend. If a storm does enter the area, it will be around NE WV along the ridges where enough outflow collisions could spring a stray storm. Have also slowed PoP increases on Friday given recent hi-res model trends and the lower chance of hitting convective temps by 18z. Mid-level troughing will linger into Friday, with lower heights digging a bit into the middle Ohio Valley. This activity will once again wane with the loss of heating during the evening, although a few showers may linger along the ridges into the night until troughing eases.
428 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 On stlt images this aftn an upper lvl ridge can be seen from the southern Rockies northward into Montana. Storms are moving up and over this feature then diving south on the leading edge of the ridge. The ridge looks to move slightly to the west on Friday and this drift is expected to increase our chances for storms on tmrw and into the weekend as energy/shrt wvs along w/ moisture moves down from the north.
Updated at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019 The Ohio Valley sits in front of a large ridge that continues to sit centered over the Plains. By morning, lows across southern Indiana will drop to the low 60s and upper 60s in southern Kentucky. The Ohio Valley will be in between two large ridges, one out of the western CONUS and the other out over the southwest Atlantic. We will be left in a persistent baggy trough axis. This inverted trough axis will serve as a focus for convective development especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
620 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
A cold front will work its way south during the day Friday and stall over parts of the region. Winds will only shift to more westerly for KAMA for the same time period as the cold front may hold back until after the end of the TAF period. A cold front will enter the area late tonight and make some slow progression through the day tomorrow. Highs Friday will vary from around 90 or the low 90s in the north to the hot 100s in the south as compressional warming ahead of the front and a bit of downslope will give the southern TX Panhandle one more scorcher.
650 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
Trough axis will drift northwest over FL Straits and toward SE FL coast, with increasing southeast flow and deepening moisture over the region as it does so. Troffing aloft over the Gulf of Mexico will aid in lift over the region and help lead to high coverage of showers with embedded thunderstorms.
901 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast ridges through the weekend. Mid-level troughing will linger into Friday, with lower heights digging a bit into the middle Ohio Valley. This activity will once again wane with the loss of heating during the evening, although a few showers may linger along the ridges into the night until troughing eases.
619 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will provide for dry conditions and mostly clear skies the next few days, other than scattered afternoon cumulus development. Dewpoints over central IL this afternoon are primarily upper 50s to around 60 as the high continues to push dry air into the region.
902 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure across the Midwest will provide dry conditions across Illinois for the next couple of days, with any rain chances generally remaining west of the Mississippi River. High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will provide for dry conditions and mostly clear skies the next few days, other than scattered afternoon cumulus development. Dewpoints over central IL this afternoon are primarily upper 50s to around 60 as the high continues to push dry air into the region.
Northern California continues to sit at the interface of a semi- permanent upper ridge across the Four Corners and broad troughing over the east Pacific. The upstream trough will continue to enhance contributions from the Delta Breeze allowing for sufficient nocturnal cooling. Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will expand westward which will briefly build heights.
VFR conditions will persist through Friday under high pressure. Medium to High High pressure will continue to dominate this period. The diurnal CU field has set up near some of the higher dew points in SC WI while rather low dew points in the 40s have prevailed in much of the eastern areas.
However, based on the continuation of rainfall at this hour and indications of a subtle inverted trough/low- level convergence axis crossing the region from E-to-W, we did update POP/weather grids to reflect slightly higher precipitation chances through 04Z. At this point, it appears as if both the threat for thunderstorms and overall probability for precipitation will diminish significantly late this evening and overnight, based on the general lack of large scale ascent within a weakness in the subtropical ridge aloft. An upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge of high pressure building into the Plains.
911 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.