Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure moving east across the area this afternoon producing mostly sunny skies with cooler/pleasant temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to a few lower 70s. High pressure will slip off to the east tonight as a mid-level trough ejects northeast out of the Central Plains. Scattered showers will then spread northeast across the area for Monday as that mid-level trough tracks northeast into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Scattered showers/cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the 60s to near 70. Scattered showers will linger into Monday evening, tapering off after midnight as that mid-level trough exits east. Although there is fairly broad/weak warm air advection and isentropic lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains, NAM bufkit sounding keeps things dry.
826 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The area is currently between ridging to the NW and Jose to the NE keeping a NE flow in place across the area becoming NW near the coast in the afternoon. As a result, temperatures will be a little cooler with lows in the upper 60s north to around 70 inland and the mid to upper 70s along the coast. High pressure to the NW and Jose to the NE will keep generally NE flow in place across the waters with winds turning NW near the coast in the afternoon. High pressure will build back in over the waters through the week as Jose lifts off to the N, with moisture returning across the area.
For Monday, expect generally tranquil, dry and warmer conditions over the forecast district as dry zonal to southwesterly upper flow develops over the forecast district, which will allow maximum temperatures to climb above seasonal averages by Monday afternoon.
An outflow boundary from the storms that were to the northwest of a Bowie to Atoka, Oklahoma line, extended southeast of a Gainesville to Bridgeport line at 23z.
656 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure continues over Arkansas with a cold front just to the north of the state. Upper ridge across the Gulf states will keep the front from making significant headway into the area, so confident highest chance of rain and thunder will remain across the northern tier or two of counties through the rest of today.
714 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure will bring patchy fog again tonight and sunny and warm weather on Monday.
/issued 911 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures ranged from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Less activity will be seen across the far southeast where the upper level ridge axis will pass overhead.
931 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 A weak cold front will approach the region tonight and stall in western Ohio on Monday and weaken.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Less activity will be seen across the far southeast where the upper level ridge axis will pass overhead.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, magnitude of low-level jet along with approaching upper trough could support a handful of strong to marginally severe storms, along with pockets of very heavy rain.
This coincides with a 700 hPa theta-e ridge advecting in from the southwest. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures much warmer than last night. These showers will move east of the area by Monday afternoon, leaving a slightly warmer and notably more humid air mass in their wake.
732 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure will bring patchy fog again tonight and sunny and warm weather on Monday.
The low clouds and fog should mix out mid to late morning. Moisture remains limited enough, especially under high pressure, for activity to develop farther inland. As for temperatures, daytime temperatures will continue to run near normal for the coastal region in the lower 90s, to above normal in the upper 90s farther west across the Brush Country. Lows will range in the mid to upper 70s along the Rio Grande and along the coast, with lows in the lower 70s inland.
Therefore have delayed the higher POPs spread to the east until closer to 12Z. Overnight rainfall followed by a day of cloud cover has helped keep the cooler airmass in place, with the office just hitting 70 over the past hour. Of note for convection potential are a weak wave over Western Kansas, with stronger convection along the high plains east of the Rockies.
Water vapor images showed a trough over central MT/WY moving toward the CWA. Monday will be dry and warmer than today as the 850-mb temperatures rise to the lower 20s Celsius.
844 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Wet, cool and breezy fall-like weather can be expected over the Inland Northwest for the upcoming week as an upper level trough moves over the region. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Middle and high clouds will continue to increase and thicken A cold front will sweep through the aviation area overnight and produce rain overnight and into Monday and this may result in local MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
The surface cold front which moved through the area with dissipating rains prior to dawn is now from near Chicago to Kansas City. A confidently dry evening will given way to questionable pops for the rest of the night, as a short wave trof over Nebraska and Kansas lifts northeast over the frontal boundary.
948 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Unseasonably strong high pressure centered over the region will bring a prolonged period of dry weather, along with unseasonably warm temperatures through the coming week. Stagnant high pressure will remain anchored over the region through tonight, with seasonably high boundary layer moisture content remaining in place despite the lack of recent rainfall. A narrow high amplitude ride will remain anchored from the western Gulf northeastward through western Pennsylvania, framed by Hurricane Jose to the east and an upper level trough to the west.
The synoptic scale cold front is close by, currently stretched from near the the WI/IL border, where it is more baroclinically oriented, and trailing into Missouri, where it becomes more diffuse and parallel with the upper flow. A narrow mid level ridge (700 to 500 mb layer) will extend from the southern Plains northeast across the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes. This ridge will provide warm and mainly dry conditions through the period. At the surface, high pressure will be quasi-stationary along the Appalachian Mountains. This high will produce a light southeast to south wind flow of humid air.
Aloft there is ridging over the region. Showers and some storms have been developing to the west of the forecast area today, but have struggled to make headway east due to the drier air aloft and the ridging. However, this ridging is expected to break down as a front approaches and then stalls out over south central IN. Given all of the above, think we are likely to stay dry across the region this evening thanks to the high pressure.
736 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across northeast Georgia and the Carolinas through much of the week, leading to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances.
Considering the presence of a weak coupled jet structure and rather strong mesoscale forcing, raised pops into the high chance to likely category with the higher pops further east. However, there is not a lot of agreement in the high resolution models in regards to timing and location of greater coverage. So went ahead and went with a blend on the high temperatures.
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Main challenge in the near term is timing a cold front and whether there will be enough forcing and moisture to get any precipitation from its passage. This front will bring in a bit cooler temperatures but the more noticeable difference will be the drier air advecting in throughout the day. While dewpoints may be in the mid to upper 60s during the morning hours, they should fall into the lower 60s across all but the southern tier of counties by the afternoon.
This will be in vicinity of a diffuse trough axis and sufficient moisture content with PWs expected to be above 1.
Temperatures were cooler than normal with readings in the 80s. Cloud cover kept temps a bit cooler, however, sunshine was becoming more abundant this afternoon. Highs on Friday will still reach the lower 90s, while overnight lows fall into the 60s.
18Z surface analysis has a cold front running from northeast Minnesota into South Dakota. Dew points ahead of the front were mainly in the 70s with 60s and cooler behind the front.
An upper trough will a stalled front southeast of central Indiana tonight which will put a brief end to the thunderstorms. Then, a cold front will drop southeast across the area on Friday.
716 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A cold front over Wisconsin will move southeast across the area Friday afternoon into Friday night.
The compressed marine layer combine with a warmer airmass yield a noticeable warming trend this afternoon. The latest 24 hour trend as of 1 PM has many locations running as much as 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure will continue to dominate the region keeping night and morning low clouds with interior heat over 100 degrees at least for one more day.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, with the highest chances generally west of a San Angelo to Sonora line. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s, with highs on Friday in the lower to mid 90s. (Friday Night through Thursday) Upper level high pressure will gradually build in a little more across West Central Texas through the weekend, allowing for conditions to dry out and warm up a little.
Otherwise, rest of the cwa precip prospects would appear quite low, but non-zero given surface cold frontal passage. 18Z surface analysis has a cold front running from northeast Minnesota into South Dakota. Dew points ahead of the front were mainly in the 70s with 60s and cooler behind the front.
1127 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Have lowered the overnight low temps a couple of degrees as cooler and drier air filters in with the northwest flow. Amplifying western upper ridge will maintain nw flow aloft across the region through the short term.
/issued 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ Water vapor imagery and upper-level data this afternoon show a stout upper-level ridge centered over the 4-corners area, bulging eastward into northwest Texas. Temperatures warm a couple degrees Friday as the ground slowly dries out, while subsidence from the upper ridge should keep the area precip.
1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Main challenge in the near term is timing a cold front and whether there will be enough forcing and moisture to get any precipitation from its passage. This front will bring in a bit cooler temperatures but the more noticeable difference will be the drier air advecting in throughout the day. While dewpoints may be in the mid to upper 60s during the morning hours, they should fall into the lower 60s across all but the southern tier of counties by the afternoon.
This will track around the high centered over eastern Utah and produce another round of isolated to widely scattered convection in our CWA. Less coverage of any precipitation or deeper convection to the northeast due to easterly surface winds (better cap) and track of forcing becoming more southerly as it rotates around upper high.
Cold front is expected to sag to near the KS/OK by late in the day Friday.
/Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ An upper high over the Great Basin region and central Rockies through Friday and Friday night will allow for a dry northeast to easterly upper flow across the Panhandles.
933 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure crosses the area late tonight.
Highs on Friday will range from the mid 80s to low 90s, depending on timing/location of cold front. As the high moves east NW sfc flow will bring cooler and drier air into the CWA Sat.
835 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Weak low pressure will pass west to east along the Mason-Dixon line overnight.
There is still a narrow window for convection later this afternoon and early this evening ahead of a passing cold front. This frontal boundary will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across the Upper Midwest with high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than they were today, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, as opposed to upper 60s.
Relatively cooler temperatures and dry weather highlight the short term. Upper level ridge located over the western United States will begin to amplify as a short wave trough will quickly make its way southeast this evening. Temperatures will be relatively cooler late this afternoon and Friday afternoon when compared with the last few days.
Cooler and drier air tonight, but right entrance of jet could bulge clouds/precipitation back toward south central SD late night or very early morning, but again at the edge of mentionable chances. Eventually, low-level ridge will settle into eastern SD late day, and work to rapidly diminish winds.
1050 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Weak low pressure will pass west to east along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line overnight.
Then the easterly flow that has been at ridgetop level will mix down to the surface tonight and continue through Friday.
Inland heating will pull this higher moisture inland and greater instability will set up further north/inland through the mid to late afternoon hours.
Longwave pattern has changed very little with a stout ridge of high pressure over the western half of the conus, and a low amplitude trough over the east. A mid-level speed max embedded within northwest flow aloft over the northern Plains will dive southeast into the Upper MS Valley this evening, and push a weak cold front into northern Iowa. Highs will be near to just be climo for early July in the low to mid 80s. A large ridge out west with a trough over the Great Lakes will keep the Upper Midwest in a northwest flow through the period.
Cold front will slowly sag south and west across the area, and by Friday afternoon be located near a Limon to Scott City line. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, but still expecting lower to middle 90s, with upper 90s to lower 100s in far southwestern areas south of the front. A strong upper level ridge over the western U.
Proton Previous Discussion: Strong stubborn upper ridge continues to be the main player with our weather. Friday, the ridge amplifies a bit to our west, so another sunny day is expected.
Temperatures range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. weak upper level low over southern Illinois will transition to an open wave over the next 12 to 18 hours with a well positively tilted trough passing overhead.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night): 700mb inverted trough across the Bay of Campeche will move westward into eastern Mexico tonight into Friday. Isolated to scattered convection will develop across the offshore waters of the lower Texas coast tonight. The increase in cloud cover and rain chances Friday will provide slightly cooler (not as hot) temperatures Fri afternoon.
959 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The 500mb trough axis that has been positioned just west of the area for the past few days is finally on the move. The trough axis extends from the OH River Valley through the Mid-South and is slowly moving ESE. Temperatures range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. weak upper level low over southern Illinois will transition to an open wave over the next 12 to 18 hours with a well positively tilted trough passing overhead.
Seeing another round of showers and storms this afternoon ahead of the approaching upper level trough. This activity will diminish with sunset this evening, but as the trough axis moves into the Tennessee Valley overnight, isolated to scattered activity will be possible across the north, especially after midnight. The main trough axis pushes through Central AL on Friday and the weak frontal boundary stalls over the South-Central portions of the state.
854 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Rain will taper off tonight as low pressure moves off to the east. Cold front will bring the chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, some of which may be strong or severe. Expect cloud cover overnight to keep temperatures slightly warmer than average, with patchy fog likely. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
514 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Current surface map shows weak cold front backing into eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska. Secondary trof/dry line dropping into northwest South Dakota.
751 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Weak low pressure will pass west to east along the Mason-Dixon line overnight.
558 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The strong ridge over the western U. Convective development should originate over the higher elevations will most storms remaining dry, or with only very narrow rain shafts.
805 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Rain will taper off tonight as low pressure moves off to the east. Cold front will bring the chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, some of which may be strong or severe. Expect cloud cover overnight to keep temperatures slightly warmer than average, with patchy fog likely. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
949 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Friday.
Where the trough has slid through, winds have increased out of the N-NW and have occasionally become gusty as drier air is trying to move into the area. For Friday, high pressure will build over the region and will likely lead to a dry and generally mostly sunny day. With the northwesterly flow aloft pulling cooler air into the area tonight (850mb temps falling from 20-23C to 15-18C), highs tomorrow should be near normal east of the James River Valley (lower 80s) and a little above normal to the west (upper 80s to around 90). The large dome of upper level high pressure over the southwest U.
1029 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s except near 80 degrees due to rainfall in Key West and Stock Island. Surface wise, a weakening western Atlantic ridge extends across the southern half of the Sunshine State. Away from any downpours or boundaries, low temperatures will average in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys.
Elsewhere, the only real potential for isolated showers will be in the Bluegrass region, closest to the low pressure center. Upper trough should continue pulling eastward this evening, with its axis expected to be into eastern KY by midnight tonight. 5-2 inch range, and, with temperatures possibly rising into the low 90s, we should have plenty of instability ahead of the front for additional storms to develop.
Upper ridge centers over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, placing much of the region under northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Additional showers and thunderstorms are progged to form off the western high plains, rounding the upper ridge and dropping southward during the mid morning to late afternoon period.
All models show the center of the upper level high, which has been responsible for the hot temperatures the last few days, drifting westward into southern Utah for Friday. In addition, a weak cool front will continue to move southwest across the high plains and eventually into Albany county, resulting in east or southeast winds and slightly cooler temperatures in the 80's to low 90's.
Strong high pressure aloft will remain locked in across the western states through the upcoming weekend. A strong upper high remains centered near 4 corners this evening with a hot airmass in place across UT. The Heat Warning for the lower elevations in southern UT remains in effect thru Fri altho the excessive heat could persist in the St George area thru Sat, depending on the extent of aftn convective blowoff and if it drifts over the lower elevation areas, providing a little shade. The increase in humidity should also shave a few degrees off the highs lowering the heat risk.
Rain cooler upper 70s can be found from near Tyler to Monroe.
Temperatures are running 5 to 8 degrees warmer this evening than last night. Temperatures tonight will end up cooling into the low to mid 60s for the Delta and Sacramento area to the upper 60s to lower 70s for the north end of the Sacramento Valley. Thermal belt areas will stay warmer in the low to mid 70s and mountains valleys will cool off mainly into the 50s. High pressure ridging is bringing clear skies to much of the area, except for cumulus clouds building over the Sierra crest to around Lassen National Park. The high pressure ridge is building, with very warm temperatures. The weekend looks slightly cooler, as the ridge begins to shift eastward.
614 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Upper Low/trof encountering rich, high theta-e environ with PW's around 2", near peak end percentile of norm. As a result, tropical like showers/isolated storms, very efficient rain producers, may persist into early evening, before finally scouring out as Low/trof drifts across. A relative pause occurs then until energy in the Vortex drops a cold front down Friday pm/evening. This will be aided by a ridge aloft slowly building into the PAH forecast area as the week goes on. However, ripples of energy on the periphery of the ridge may enable deep moist convection to occur from time to time through Tue morning in parts of our area, mainly north of I-64. Beyond Wed, the aforementioned ridge will be allowed to build into our region.
Looking aloft, while our upper level trough has since shifted well east of our region earlier today, the trough left a remnant shear axis extending west to east across the Four State Region late this evening and this axis could generate enough lift for at the very least, a return to some widely scattered overnight convection.
Amplifying western upper ridge will maintain nw flow aloft across the region through the short term.
Deep layer ridging will weaken and shift southward tonight and Friday as an upper trough situated over the Tennessee Valley region today sags further south into central and perhaps even southern Alabama by late Friday. A weak surface reflection of the trough will also drop into central/southern Alabama as well. With the trough acting as a convergence zone, combined with PWAT's increasing from around 1. Isolated to scattered sea breeze convection down near the coast late today will dissipate early this evening, but additional isolated to scattered showers and storms may affect northern portions of the forecast area late tonight as the trough sags south.
Strong high pressure aloft near the Four Corners will continue to strengthen as it shifts a little farther west over Utah through the weekend. This position will maintain a broad northeast to southwest steering flow aloft over the area that will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain and western half of the state.
An upper trough axis will shift south of the area tonight, helping to clear skies and usher in slightly drier air.
Water vapor imagery shows a strong ridge centered over the four corners region. The ridge will begin to build east over the weekend across the Central Rockies and Plains. The thermal ridge will be shunted to our west so afternoon highs will be near normal.
an inverted trough moving west from the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. With the shear axis remaining between the Ridge across the four corners region and the trough moving into the eastern United States our area will be sandwiched between these two features.
Leaned closer to 4km Wavewatch wave guidance as NWPS appeared to be running on the high side based on observational data at the buoys.
A strong upper level high pressure system will remain parked over the Desert Southwest for the next several days as an upper level trough hovers over the northeast Pacific.