Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IFR conditions and a wind shift to the north will likely occur 1-6 hours behind a cold front passage 12-21 UTC. A wind shift to the north will occur with cold front passage 12-21 UTC. /issued 318 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ A shallow cold airmass has moved across the northern half of Oklahoma (western half) today behind a cold front. Better shower and thunderstorm develop will arrive this evening and overnight as part of the western trough lifts northeast into the central and northern Plains. Precipitation chances will diminish from north to south on Tuesday as the cold front pushes into northern Texas by late Tuesday afternoon/early evening.
913 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. 5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of the atmospheric column. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely.
Snow is ongoing across the central, and portions of the western CWA as of 20Z between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north. By Tuesday night, the dominating 500mb low over much of northeastern Canada will have a trough spread out from the west coast through the northern plains and down through much of Mexico.
330 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018 Upper low pressure trough to swinging through central and eastern Montana through 18z Tuesday. Look for areas of light snow mainly east of a line from Winnett to Malta through Tuesday morning as this trough moves east.
Coastal trough has weakened with winds veering to the e to se. Coastal trough has weakened with most wind reports veering to the east and southeast.
The cold front looks to have stalled this evening along a line from Norman, OK to Tulsa, OK to just north of Joplin, MO. If front continues to push northward to the KS/OK state line, temperatures should be warm enough that no freezing precipitation should occur.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across the CWA, however the cold front was situated one row of counties to the west with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. The models are differing in that aspect with the GFS showing almost no precipitation within the sub-freezing air and NAM showing still quite a bit. We have gone with a blend of the models which will bring in some freezing rain on the back edge of the main area of rainfall.
412 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018 Deep upper trough continues to slowly cross the western CONUS with active southwesterly flow across the northern Plains.
possibly colder in the high elevation meadows. The atmosphere will stay dry on Tuesday with moderating temperatures into the 30s in the lower elevations and mostly 20s in the mountains.
Tonight through Tuesday: Surface ridging and high pressure aloft will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMiss tonight. Low temperatures will fall into the low/mid 60s by Tuesday morning. Expect very warm temperatures, with highs in the low/mid 80s for much of the area. /15/ Tuesday night through the weekend: A rather tenacious upper level pattern featuring mean troughing in the west and ridging in the southeast will result in a series of systems transiting an unseasonably moist airmass across the region through the end of the week.
902 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge through Tuesday.
Low pressure system across the Midwest will interact with building SE ridge to gradually increase winds overnight before becoming gusty at all terminals by late morning.
/issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ Winds will begin to ease around sunset tonight but remain out of the southwest most of the day tomorrow keeping temperatures above the normal but cooler than today. Unfortunately the cold front will keep any deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to our east and south east.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the Southeastern United States overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered just off the southeast coast of the United States tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the Bahamas overnight.
High pressure will ridge across the waters through the period, keeping an E/SE flow across the waters with a weak sea breeze possible near the coast during the second half of the week.
/issued 400 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ A deep trough continues to dig over the western CONUS this afternoon. Broad southwesterly flow downstream of this trough is advecting mid/upper-level moisture from the eastern Pacific into the region. Winds may diminish slightly around sunset, but will increase overnight as the low-level jet intensifies.
606 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Very light snows to a moderate flurry continue this afternoon as bottom of soundings remain just cold enough to produce snow as opposed to widespread freezing drizzle. That said, soundings are a bit warmer over the eastern zones along the Buffalo Ridge where very light freezing drizzle continues. 5-3C, the rather thick refreeze layer bottoms out near - 9C, so favoring more sleet as opposed to freezing rain as this activity moves through. Moving back northwest, anticipating a fairly broad area of 2-5" of snow, however, given signs of banding within the larger baroclinic zone, some of the higher snowfall amounts could be more localized in nature. Tuesday Night: A cold night is expected as high pressure moves southeast into the region.
Record cold temperatures with widespread freezing conditions tonight. Unseasonably deep trough has dropped south over California bringing a cold airmass to NorCal. Widespread freezing temperatures occurred last night/Monday morning over the area and expect even colder temperatures tonight. Widespread readings in the lower/upper 20's are likely with damage to sensitive plants and trees possible. Have upgraded the the freeze warning to a hard freeze warning to emphasize the potential agricultural damage and threat to freezing of outdoor pipes.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 76 61 77 / 10 10 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 75 58 77 / 10 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 58 75 59 76 / 0 10 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 75 50 76 / 10 10 10 30.
BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper low pressure trough to swinging through central and eastern Montana through 18z Tuesday. Look for areas of light snow mainly east of a line from Winnett to Malta through Tuesday morning as this trough moves east.
550 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, a low confidence forecast with respect to cold frontal timing. This particular cold front has already moved thru much of the area nearly one day sooner than expected. Most computer models suggest the cold front may temporarily move back north into Kansas later tonight, then surge south again on Tuesday. Due to low confidence in cold frontal timing, amendments may become necessary later tonight.
508 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Rain with a warm front north of Pittsburgh should end this evening. Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge Tuesday.
245 PM PST Mon Feb 19 2018 A cold low pressure trough will remain over the region this week with below normal temperatures and periods of snow showers through this evening and again the middle into the end of the week. The cold and unstable core of the upper level low is centered over Nevada this afternoon bringing additional rounds of snow showers. These showers will be hit or miss, but with temperatures struggling to reach freezing in even the warmest valleys, snow is likely to briefly stick to the roads. Overnight lows will be quite chilly tonight with teens and single digits in warmer valleys, and below zero for many mountain locations.
633 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A warm front moving northward in the forecast area tonight will lift north of the area Tuesday. High pressure will be off the coast coast this week and bring warm and moist air into the forecast area. However, the chance for showers remains low through the rest of the week because of strong upper ridging over the Southeast. Based on the NAM LI pattern a lingering warm front will be in the forecast area tonight. It will be drier aloft associated with upper ridging. Upper-level ridging into the Southeast will inhibit convective development. Mild temperatures will continue with lows in the low 60s. Models continue to show good agreement with the persistent upper level ridge over the region.
/issued 309 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ Current radar shows some weak echoes across the area and the HRRR, which handled yesterday pretty well, shows precipitation increasing this evening mainly south of I-20 due to increasing lift from an approaching trough and favorable upper jet placement. The trough is also causing strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains which should continue into Tuesday morning, so have extended the High Wind Warning through 18Z Tue.
559 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. 5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of the atmospheric column. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely.
/26/ Tonight through Tuesday: Surface ridging and high pressure aloft will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMiss tonight. Low temperatures will fall into the low/mid 60s by Tuesday morning. Expect very warm temperatures, with highs in the low/mid 80s for much of the area. /15/ Tuesday night through the weekend: A rather tenacious upper level pattern featuring mean troughing in the west and ridging in the southeast will result in a series of systems transiting an unseasonably moist airmass across the region through the end of the week.
1022 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A warm front moving northward in the forecast area tonight will lift north of the area Tuesday. High pressure will be off the coast coast this week and bring warm and moist air into the forecast area. However, the chance for showers remains low through the rest of the week because of strong upper ridging over the Southeast. Based on the NAM LI pattern a lingering warm front will be in the forecast area tonight. It will be drier aloft associated with upper ridging. Upper-level ridging into the Southeast will inhibit convective development. Mild temperatures will continue with lows in the low 60s. Models continue to show good agreement with the persistent upper level ridge over the region.
IFR conditions will prevail at KBVO until a warm front moves north of there by around 05Z. Showers and storms will become more widespread Tuesday as a strong cold front moves south across the area, with widespread rain continuing well behind the front. /Issued 245 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ Strong cold front currently located near a OKC/BVO line is expected to stall by late afternoon/early evening and begin moving back north as a warm front. More widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected by Tuesday morning as the cold front pushes back south into northeast Oklahoma.
Satellite trends show things winding down with an exiting trough, which means very cold air is settling in.
The trof axis finally slides by us Tuesday morning.
542 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 WV imagery was showing a longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southern CA coastline along with a subtropical moisture feed streaming northeastward from the southern Plains to New England. At the surface, low pressure was centered over southeast IA with a strong colds front extending into northern then to central OK. With the onset of precip, soundings show the dominate precip type will be light freezing rain over the central/southern CWA, with a mix of light freezing drizzle/sleet to the north before making a change over to all snow shortly after midnight.
536 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 For the Four State Region a wet weather pattern is coming as an upper longwave trough of low pressure becomes established over the Western parts of the country while an upper ridge remains over the the Eastern States and along and off the Atlantic Coast. This pattern will provide for abundant gulf moisture and a series of upper disturbances moving around the base of the trough and to the Northeast.
1008 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A warm front moving northward in the forecast area tonight will lift north of the area Tuesday. High pressure will be off the coast coast this week and bring warm and moist air into the forecast area. However, the chance for showers remains low through the rest of the week because of strong upper ridging over the Southeast. Based on the NAM LI pattern a lingering warm front will be in the forecast area tonight. It will be drier aloft associated with upper ridging. Upper-level ridging into the Southeast will inhibit convective development. Mild temperatures will continue with lows in the low 60s. Models continue to show good agreement with the persistent upper level ridge over the region.
Low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s across our area by the early morning hours.
Aside from the breezy and record warm conditions, the main story in the near term is the high precipitable water levels and therefore heavy rain potential, mainly Tuesday night. The higher elevations of the Ozark Foothills may receive spotty icing Wed and Wed night as colder air surges in.
As a result, it will drive the low level moisture south into Colorado. The rest of the forecast looks to be on track with cooler conditions moving into the area during next couple of days.
Most areas along and east of I-45 picked up 1 to 3 inches of overnight rainfall with eastern Chambers County recording the highest totals at slightly over 3 inches. Friday's prog soundings show an early day mid-level cap that will erode once surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. more sun will have afternoon ambient temperatures warming into the lower to middle 90s equating to Friday's heat indices in the 104 to 108 F range. or between the Bermuda ridge and a northwestern Mexico-centered ridge.
504 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 High pressure will cross the region today.
315 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The ridge over the SW U. The passing trough will increase the pressure gradient and resulting winds aloft and at the surface. A modicum of moisture will accompany the trough which should result in isolated high-based and dry thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of the area. The dry NW flow aloft will continue through the weekend as the ridge reestablishes over the Great Basin.
Meanwhile, high pressure aloft and at the surface will try and get a foothold in the SE portion of the CWFA. Since the boundary will flirt with the GA/TN border, extreme northern GA should have the highest amounts of rainfall for the short term period. The axis should remain mostly north of the CWFA again on Friday, so the highest chances will remain in that area. Still looking at Friday night as the main severe weather threat as the low/mid- level shear associated with the remnants of Cindy sweep through the region. Flood threat will be highly dependent on how much rainfall we get in the next 36 hours leading up to the passage of the low.
As Cindy continues to move away from the area, we will see mid/upper level high pressure retrograde back over the area from the Atlantic during Thursday. Friday sees the upper ridge build even stronger overhead and further dry out the column. The upper ridge weakens this weekend, along with a weak frontal boundary dropping into the southeastern states.
Upper level high pressure remains firmly in place over the four corners region resulting in well above normal temperatures.
401 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 High pressure will build into the region through this afternoon with dry and seasonably pleasant weather expected.
330 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Moisture has become high in the southerly flow between high pressure off the Southeast Coast and tropical system Cindy near the western Gulf Coast. A weak pressure trough in the forecast area today will become more diffuse Friday.
459 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Thunderstorm coverage and strength the question for today, as fairly strong cold front drops south through the area this afternoon and evening. Front then races southward through the plains this evening, with deepening upslope and cooler air spreading westward across the plains and into the eastern mountains by sunset. Unsettled and cooler conditions are anticipated over the forecast district from Friday into at least the weekend in the wake of a healthy north to northeasterly surface surge which is expected to move into northeastern New Mexico by sunrise Friday. Increased pops and even some fog at times in combination with cooler conditions(especially when compared to the previous few very warm days) should be noted over the majority of the forecast district(especially eastern sections) from Friday into the weekend as upper disturbances interact with adequate atmospheric moisture.
With little movement in the ridge of high pressure through the weekend, well above normal temperatures will persist over northern Arizona.
Upper high over the southwestern states will allow for an active northwesterly flow pattern across the Panhandles today through the weekend. Convection will likely develop over the higher terrain and mountains of Colorado and New Mexico by 21Z today which will propagate into the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles between 21Z today and 00Z Friday.
358 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Upper level analysis has fast zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains, with strong upper low over Manitoba. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies into the far northern Plains, with the cold front now south and east of the forecast area. Cooler air will move into the area this morning, with highs only in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Northwest winds behind the cold front will be breezy again across the South Dakota plains at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.
High pressure remains steady with the forecast area over the northeast quadrant at least today, probably Fri. On Sat, this will change as the high shifts eastward and the area comes of the hotter center of the ridge, so warming should start then.
Upper trof digs into the area today with jet stream dropping south across the Beartooth then east along the MT/WY border. This will bring cooler air (about 10 degrees off of yesterdays highs) and a slight chance for showers/tstms (mainly for the mountains/foothills). Relative humidities will drop into the lower 20s combining with the gusty winds to bring elevated grass fire concerns to the area through this evening.
Some light showers continue to make their way across the higher terrain this evening however no measurable rainfall is expected. Hot and mostly dry weather continues today while strong high pressure remains centered over the region. Heat Warnings and Advisories remain intact through Thursday with the lowest elevation areas continuing through the weekend. A weak low pressure trough to our west over the Lake Tahoe region will sweep east across Utah and Colorado on Thursday resulting in an increase in westerly wind speeds.
339 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The ongoing thunderstorm activity across SD moves east this morning allowing cooler air into Nebraska.
In addition, the high risk of rip currents will continue as well, but as the day progresses swells should be on the downswing.
This activity will generally continue today as the system lifts northward toward the the lower Mississippi Vally region. Without much in the way of rain and thunderstorm induced outflows, temperatures will likely be a tick or two warmer than they have of late, and expect most areas to reach the lower 90s.
Dry weather returns to the silver state with the departure of a weak disturbance and the strengthening ridge. The weak disturbance has departed from the Nevada bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the silver state.
The thermal trough will strengthen and begin to slide inland this weekend.
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be thunderstorm chances/coverage as the cold front pushes southward through this evening. The h7 thermal ridge was over much of the forecast area at 12 to 14 degC and this led to highs in the 90s with 100 the hot spot at Albion. At 08Z, the cold front was north of FSD and near CDR and the warm front was near southern MN. The h5 closed low pressure system over Saskatchewan travels east into Ontario through 06Z. with 60 to 80m ht falls making their way into SD/MN as the h5 trough deepens. This will push the cold front southward toward Omaha/Lincoln by 00Z and northwest MO by 06Z. As the trough builds in.
/Today through Tonight/ Scattered thunderstorms have blossomed over north central and northeast Iowa in an area of 850mb warm air advection and on the cusp of the low level jet early this morning. Otherwise, main feature today will be a cold front that as of 8z was located near a line from Sauk Center, MN to Mitchell, SD to Valentine, NE. Behind the front Thursday night, winds from the northwest will begin to advect cooler and drier air into the state.
322 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 A warm front extended from southern Minnesota, through far northeast Iowa, into northern Illinois during the overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles favor a linear storm mode as widespread storms push southeast along an advancing cold front. Friday: I will maintain a chance for showers and thunderstorms in our far se cwa early in the morning, as the cold front continues to make progress to the southeast.
Tropical moisture will spread into the area from the south on Thursday with a cold front dropping in from the northwest Friday afternoon and night. As Friday morning evolves a potent upper level longwave trough axis approaches from the west with the ILN forecast area moving into a RRQ. A cold front will extend from northern Michigan southwest towards northern Illinois.
Thunderstorms will be possible once again with the highest chances across the western zones. The main threat will be outflow winds of 60-70 mph as the lower atmosphere will be mixed with an inverted v thermo profile. Beyond the weekend, only isolated storms for the beginning of the week are expected along with warmer/moderating temperatures.
A ridge of high pressure will build along the west coast today, placing western Montana and central Idaho under northwest flow aloft.
632 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 High pressure will cross the region today.
TS Cindy will be inland near the TX/LA border at the start of the period allowing the subtropical ridge to our east to reassert itself across the forecast area.
A cold front will drop southeast across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with heavy rainfall possible ahead of this front. At this stage, the best forecast is for the highest rainfall totals to extend from Ripley County to Fairfield County with the greatest rainfall occurring between 09Z and 18Z.
616 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Moisture has become high in the southerly flow between high pressure off the Southeast Coast and tropical system Cindy near the western Gulf Coast. A weak pressure trough in the forecast area today will become more diffuse Friday.
Thunderstorms will be possible once again with the highest chances across the western zones. The main threat will be outflow winds of 60-70 mph as the lower atmosphere will be mixed with an inverted v thermo profile. Beyond the weekend, only isolated storms for the beginning of the week are expected along with warmer/moderating temperatures. An unseasonably strong cold front will also swing through during this time, with a shift to NE winds gusting 25-30 kts outside of convection. Best chance of MVFR cigs in the cooler and moist upslope post frontal flow Friday morning will be across far SW Kansas, from EHA to LBL.
Did make some minor tweaks to the min temps tonight, mainly to raise them 1-3 degrees with winds staying up overnight, advecting the higher low level theta-e air WNW.
Look for notably cooler conditions Friday under the stronger cyclonic flow.