Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD. THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US CONTINUES TO DIRECT IMPULSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ONE OF THESE IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THANKS TO THE 594 DEKAMETER 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY NIGHT. COINCIDENT W/ LAKE AGGREGATE SFC TROF. PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
342 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 GRADUAL INCREASE IN RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL DO LITTLE TO CAUSE A DEVIATION FROM THE QUIET AND EXTREMELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED BONUS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. STILL SEEING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH SPELL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION FOCUS. GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER. TAKING THE UPPER LOW AND WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN HOWEVER BRING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE I80 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
313 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 DEEP UPPER TROF FOR LATE AUGUST SITUATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD AROUND OUR AREA YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
325 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SHIFT IS THE RESULT OF THE HIGH BEING NUDGED EAST AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. ALSO MOISTURE THAT HAS ACCUMULATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTHWARD TODAY CARRIED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. WHILE THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO WYOMING BY LATE WED. THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL PASS OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT READINGS. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON WED WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN TROUGH PASSAGE AND A MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER UTAH.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE.
AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS LOW WILL BE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL NOT EXTEND FAR INLAND. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE CREST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY MOVING OUT INTO CENTRAL OREGON. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM DIGS S OVER THE E PAC BETWEEN 135 AND 140W.
442 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT.
643 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH. BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THESE AREAS APPEAR LIKELY TO EITHER START THE DAY WARMER THAN MODEL FORECASTS OR RECEIVE AMPLE SUNSHINE. ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.
118 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY.
431 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A BUSY FORECAST WITH TSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING WED-THU AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FLORIDA. THE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOST INFLUENCE WED-THU. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGH'S CLOSEST INFLUENCE BEGINNING ON WED, MID LEVELS WILL COOL SOME AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WED-THU.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND EDGE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A MUCH COOLER AND RAIN FREE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
552 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model solutions.
AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL WORK S TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING CONDITIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING AS THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS EDGES E.
The next significant round of wind, showers, and cooler weather looks to arrive for the upcoming weekend.
121 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.
WARM AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST. STRENGTHENING COLD POOL FROM RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN IDAHO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO FURTHER INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
301 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 SAME PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S HERE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. WHICH COULD BE COOLER IF THE CLOUD SHIELD SETS UP FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
234 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND EDGE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO E NORTH AMERICA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING PERTURBATIONS THRU THE OH VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME.
354 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015 ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
643 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
215 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. SUK /ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
HIGH THE 250 MB UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAW CLOSER. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WELL EAST WITH SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED.
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE.
126 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
143 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE ESE THROUGH TUESDAY.
353 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
Very little change in the weather expected for the region the next several days as southwest flow aloft continues between a developing trough off the coast of British Columbia and strong ridging over the Rockies. Temperatures may inch up a few more degrees the next few days, with a more shallow and diffuse marine layer, before beginning to trend down by the end of the week as the upstream trough approaches.
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE. HAD EARLIER THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE AREAL COVERAGE INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL LOOKS TOO HIGH. SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES TO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE PUSH/CONVERGENCE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT. AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONTANA. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
THE LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.
RODRIGUEZ 133 PM CDT AN EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS DUE TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. KJB 418 PM CDT THE UPPER LOW IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT AREAS COOLER.
658 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS.
BUT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. SUMMER IS NOT OVER JUST YET! ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TAKES ITS TIME MIGRATING EASTWARD. BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
344 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS A CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY SLOTTED BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. BUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ON OUTER RIM OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW /WITH A LITTLE GREAT LAKES HELP/ MAY PASS THROUGH FINGER LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG WITH MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
419 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model solutions.
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS.
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85.
714 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1028 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT FORECAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TOMORROW AS THE UPR RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL.
959 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HODOGRAPHS AROUND THE WATERTOWN AREA SHOW A NICE CURVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
752 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
1028 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD DAWN AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSIT THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. STORM MOTION DROPS BELOW 10 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS HOVER AROUND 13K FT. THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF A STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.
949 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
639 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO ILLINOIS.
800 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION, DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPR LVL WAVE MOVES EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP CREATE CLEARING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION WHICH WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CONFLUENT NATURE OF THE FLOW AT MID TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL ALSO ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GETTING EAST OF ALABAMA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. CONCURRENT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ARKLATEX. WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE COMING TO DOMINATE THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE LOW LEVEL MSTR IS FCST TO INITIALLY DECREASE A BIT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
1128 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD AND SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THE FURTHER S THEY MOVE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT SHOULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEAVING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
1243 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS THAN SEEN TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY STORMS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
909 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS N GA OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY.
744 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1150 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO ILLINOIS.
The subtropical ridge will maintain its grip on the region, maintaining mostly sunny skies (sans a weak diurnal cu field) and temperatures at or above 100 degrees across the CWA. The center of the upper level high pressure remains to the west, but the ridging back into Texas is more pronounced. So far this afternoon, San Angelo (KSJT) continues to be the area hot spot and most other sites are running a couple degree cooler.
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST 2 KM.
EAST- WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHING ACROSS OUR REGION AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER WEST TX AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL START TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NAM RH GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE MOISTURE VALUES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS VERY LIMITED AND THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CLD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SEE NO REASON FOR THE DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW TO COOL OFF ANY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ALREADY DOMINANT OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER TX AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FROM NM INTO NORTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
741 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LINGER INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA.
THIS PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF FROM THE STL METRO AREA AND POINTS EAST.
624 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 257 PM CDT A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE CONTAINED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOWING FOR COOLING ONSHORE FLOW IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE. TOMORROW THUS LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE COPY OF TODAY THOUGH MAYBE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
730 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION, DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPR LVL WAVE MOVES EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP CREATE CLEARING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION WHICH WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CONFLUENT NATURE OF THE FLOW AT MID TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL ALSO ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. IF NOT A TOUCH WARMER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST REACHING THE BAY AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO COOLER GFS/NAM TEMP GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
712 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. TONIGHT ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH BENIGN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.