Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
216 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Warm front location remains a bit uncertain given variable winds and mixing of dew points that had surged earlier in the day. Showers with embedded non severe thunderstorms to be found farther north this evening to extend forecast area wide overnight as an upper low approaches Joplin toward 12z. May see an uptick in convection as the upper low approaches late tonight but additional severe storms are not expected. Cool and wet conditions are then expected on Saturday as cold advection on the back side of the low results in lingering light rain/drizzle throughout much of Saturday.
The possibility exists for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening in southeastern IL, south of I-70, as the cold front from the lifting occluded low stalls. An upper low noted on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over southwest Wisconsin will continue to track N/NW today. Thanks to increasing amounts of sunshine and southwesterly winds gusting 20-30mph, high temperatures will be considerably warmer than they were yesterday. Readings will range from the lower 60s far north. Lows will mostly be in the lower to middle 50s, with cooler upper 40s far north. Widespread rain will be ongoing early Saturday morning as low pressure tracks into central Illinois. Based on the track of the low, the steadiest deformation zone rain will focus from northern Missouri into northwest Illinois by afternoon.
Ensembles in agreement that current ridging over western US will be replaced by a Great Basin upper low by the middle of the next work week.
The fair weather day today due to a weak ridge of high pressure will give way to a fairly strong cold front late tonight into tomorrow. The cold front will also bring numerous showers back to the Northern Rockies on Saturday.
212 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A low-amplitude transitory ridge tonight will result in dry conditions. A trough will push into the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning moving quickly into the Northern Rockies Saturday evening. Also, ahead of the trough a very dry air mass will be in place especially across central and southern areas. A strong cold front, associated with the trough pulling across the northern Rockies, will sweep across the forecast area Saturday night. Precipitation is expected along and behind the cold front with the best chances across the north Saturday evening associated with mid-level diffluence and dynamics from a left- exit region of an upper jet.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing thorugh the afternoon and evening across most of the area, with the exception of central Cherry County where temperatures are hovering just above freezing and at times a mixture of rain/snow has been occurring and will continue through the afternoon before diminishing by evening. As for temperatures, trended cooler for overnight lows tonight. Drier air in combination with the strong winds diminishing this evening will create favorable conditions for colder temperatures, thus have trended towards the cooler guidance for western and southwest Nebraska. High clouds will stick around a little longer across north central Nebraska helping to keep temperatures a little warmer, with clouds not expected to clear out until the morning, so did not adjust temperatures any colder across north central Nebraska.
There is an area of very weak surface convergence just north and west of the CWA border in southern IN/IL where convection has tried to initiate this afternoon, though it has largely been inhibited by dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere and warm air above 600mb. As the cold front pushes through the area, any remaining precipitation will exit off to the east Saturday evening.
A weak upper ridge will result in dry and warmer weather today with clear skies and light winds.
Otherwise a wet Saturday afternoon in store as a vigorous low pressure system develops over the midwest.
157 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Clear skies, though with a few cumulus clouds, will dominate the rest of today as upper ridging persists, and downslope flow will continue to warm temperatures into the 50s.
A warm front continues to move north and is now just south of the region. A few thunderstorms have developed just north of this warm front across portions of southwest Arkansas. As the warm front continues to move north late this afternoon and this evening more thunderstorms are expected to develop with some moving into the Mid-South. In addition, a cold front will move into Arkansas from the west tonight, bringing another round of thunderstorms for tonight and into early Saturday morning. The cold front will move through the Mid-South Saturday morning with gradually ending from the west to east during the morning. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday behind the front with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
259 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Weakening low pressure provide the chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. An upper low will deepen as it shifts across the midwest on Saturday.
233 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Pronounced upper level low continues to pull away to the northeast with a secondary wave diving through Nebraska.
121 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Turning cooler, windy and wet today. An upper trough translating southeast from the northern Rockies across the Central Plains today will send a cold front south through our region this morning. The upper trough deepens/closes off across Nebraska and in increasing lift, chances for rain showers return to our area this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. With the increasing cloud cover and rain around today, have kept temperatures conservatively cool and similar to the previous forecasts with highs ranging from around 50F in our western zones to the low/mid 60s in the east. but it'll feel cooler with the windy and damp conditions. The upper low pressure system gradually tracks southeast into eastern KS/western MO Saturday late tonight/Saturday morning and the precip will taper off/end from northwest to southeast.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 71 52 72 48 / 60 80 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 72 53 70 49 / 30 70 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 72 51 70 48 / 30 80 50 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 73 54 68 46 / 20 70 50 20 10.
The cold front will continue to move across the area with storms expected to develop down the front as things shift southeast although currently expect the western extent of this development to maybe be only a little bit west of I-35. (Today and tonight) Early morning observations show a cold front moving down the lee of the Rockies entering NE CO. Dewpoints may climb into the low to mid 60s within the warm sector. The cold front should be near the I-44 corridor around 21Z. Further south, deeper in the warm sector, stratus (CIN) and a drier mid to upper level airmass could limit the storm coverage along the cold front until it progresses further east later this evening. Gusty north winds behind the cold front across western OK should near 45 mph this afternoon so we went ahead and issued an advisory.
The question will be how much sunshine can break through the low clouds.
We soaked up a little bit of sun today, enough to get forecast highs generally met, but as anticipated, numbers were cooler than most guidance. Broken deck at 2500 feet is being overrun by the higher stratus with approaching trough from the west.
1153 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 As seen by current satellite, the upper level low center is presently located over the Upper Mississippi Valley very early this morning. The upper level low will slide into the northern Great Lakes region by this evening, and with mid level cooling and a less defined TROWAL, showers will become more scattered through the day - ending from west to east into this evening. It will be a cool night as lows drop into the lower to mid 30s where skies clear first, while upper 30s to lower 40s will be found elsewhere.
333 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A broad and slow moving area of low pressure continues its northward trek along the WI/MN border. The next feature of interest is a deep closed low that sends a TROWAL rotating towards our area late on Saturday. A warm front is expected to move over south and east Upper Michigan Saturday afternoon.
Some very light showers across west-central and central Kansas will be possible with this low through the evening. Warmer 30s are possible across the eastern zones associated with slightly stronger overnight winds. High pressure will prevail across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, storms are expected to fire along the cold front over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma around 00Z. The cold front will reach the Mississippi by 15Z Saturday and then clear the entire area by 21Z. Temperatures compared to this week will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 60s.
351 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Main low near the west end of Lake Superior this afternoon, with a cold front southwest to a second low over north central Texas.
A cold front will approach the area tonight, reaching the northern counties around 09Z. Winds will shift to the northeast and cooler and even drier conditions are expected in the wake of the front. Temperatures will be cooler for Saturday, if one can call the 90s "cool.
An upper low will deepen as it shifts across the midwest on Saturday.
545 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A strong Pacific weather system and cold front will bring cool and windy conditions along with another round of snow showers Saturday into Saturday night. The surface cold front associated with this system will advance quickly across the region from northwest to southeast through the day. The strong westerly flow will limit precipitation across lower elevations east of the Rocky Mountains, but scattered showers are likely later Saturday afternoon into evening as cold air advection steepens the mid level lapse rates, and as the low level flow develops a brief upslope component Saturday night.
951 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will push through the region through this evening as an upper level low pressure system lifts northeast across the Great Lakes. With this system lifting fairly quickly through the region, another dry slot will work into the region Saturday night as the region starts out just ahead of the closed upper low and then a lull as the low moves through the NW portion of the forecast area. Temperatures will drop to near 50 ahead of the low, with mid to upper 40s in the west.
A cold front will be bringing breezy to windy conditions across the region Saturday but no precipitation is expected.
VFR conds should become low end MVFR during convection but should return to VFR after the passage of the cold front.
This warming trend will be very brief as another Pacific cold front will be quick to follow the fast moving ridge axis.
Warm front location remains a bit uncertain given variable winds and mixing of dew points that had surged earlier in the day. Showers with embedded non severe thunderstorms to be found farther north this evening to extend forecast area wide overnight as an upper low approaches Joplin toward 12z. May see an uptick in convection as the upper low approaches late tonight but additional severe storms are not expected. Cool and wet conditions are then expected on Saturday as cold advection on the back side of the low results in lingering light rain/drizzle throughout much of Saturday.
621 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Pronounced upper level low continues to pull away to the northeast with a secondary wave diving through Nebraska.
Gusty northwest winds continue across the area this afternoon as a result of a tight pressure gradient between low pressure to the east and high pressure approaching from the west. Wind speeds will diminish this evening as the high reaches the western Dakotas, then settles in over the region overnight and Saturday. The high will begin to get pushed eastward later in the day Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.
828 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Main change to the forecast this evening was to raise the wind speeds up a bit with this cold front that will be moving through tomorrow.
522 PM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Latest upper level analysis has weak closed low just to the southeast of the Black Hills, with a sharp ridge moving into the Northern Rockies. Sharp upper ridge crosses the area Saturday. Upper ridge shifts quickly east Saturday night as a strong cold front drops through the area.
The strong cold front that is forecasted to move through the area has similar features to the front that impacted the forecast area yesterday. Tonight through Saturday night A low-amplitude transitory ridge tonight will result in dry conditions. A trough will push into the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning, moving quickly into the Northern Rockies Saturday evening. Also, ahead of the trough, a very dry air mass will be in place especially across central and southern areas. A strong cold front, associated with the trough pulling across the Northern Rockies, will sweep across the forecast area Saturday night. Precipitation is expected along and behind the cold front, with the best chances across the north Saturday evening associated with mid-level diffluence and dynamics from a left- exit region of an upper jet.
High pressure lies along the east coast and a nearly stationary frontal boundary is across North Carolina and traversing over NE TN and southwest VA tonight. Skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy except for high clouds spreading into western sections from a large area of thunderstorms moving into middle Tennessee that extends in an arc to the southwest across MS and LA ahead of low pressure and another cold front over the Red River Valley of Texas. This complex of showers and thunderstorms will march eastward overnight with showers and possible thunderstorms developing across the southern plateau and valley ahead of a warm front before morning. Temperatures at mid evening are in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
the cold front was positioned in Northeast Oklahoma from Delaware county southwest to Okfuskee county and then extended further southwest into South Central Oklahoma. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for the CWA along and ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front. this line of convection is expected to continue to shift east and southeast along the cold front through Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with the leading line of convection exiting the CWA around 04-05z. The majority of the precip should be exiting by 06z with a slight chance of a lingering shower in far Northwest Arkansas as the upper level low moves through the region. the gusty northwesterly winds should let up some as the low level jet weakens.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across the northern half of the region, generally north of Interstate 20, this afternoon as a warm front lifts north across the region. There will likely be a bit of a break during the early evening hours, but additional severe storms will be possible late this evening and overnight as a cold front accelerates southeast through the region. MlCape will rise about 2000 J/kg in wake of the warm front, with dewpoints in the 60s along with sufficient deep layer shear. Behind the front, northwest winds will bring in cooler and drier air into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies on Saturday with highs ranging from the lower to mid 70s, which is near climatic normals.
An upper low will deepen as it shifts across the midwest on Saturday. A warm front will lift north over the forecast area later in the afternoon.
Overcast skies and plenty of low level moisture should result in only very slowly falling temperatures tonight, with lows mostly in the lower 50s. The question will be how much sunshine can break through the low clouds. Based southeast flow/cold air damming signature, will continue to undercut NBM temps in favor of the cooler Superblend east of the mountains.
Tonight through Saturday night A low-amplitude transitory ridge tonight will result in dry conditions. A trough will push into the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning, moving quickly into the Northern Rockies Saturday evening. Also, ahead of the trough, a very dry air mass will be in place especially across central and southern areas. A strong cold front, associated with the trough pulling across the Northern Rockies, will sweep across the forecast area Saturday night. Precipitation is expected along and behind the cold front, with the best chances across the north Saturday evening associated with mid-level diffluence and dynamics from a left- exit region of an upper jet.
The lower level ridge is off to the east resulting in winds veering southerly below 850 mb. However, a sizable patch of stratocumulus has spread northward off of Cuba this evening and is approaching the Lower Keys. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the western flank of the Atlantic ridge will be shoved eastward as troughing pushes into the Gulf of Mexico. Ridging across Florida will flatten out some as troughing pushes into the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s, except Okeechobee, and portions of Osceola counties where lows will be in the upper 50s. At the end of the period winds will veer to southwesterly ahead of a cold front.
With a warmer air mass in place, overnight low temperatures will be closer to normal compared to some of the record cold we saw last night.
828 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 The cold front is advancing south across our central counties this evening. A cold front, attached to the aforementioned low pressure system, will begin moving into the Big Country this evening. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northeast, ushering in much cooler but more seasonable air. Overnight lows Friday night will range from the mid 40s in the Big Country to the low 50s down in the Hill Country. Highs Saturday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today, ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
709 PM PDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A cold front arrives overnight into Saturday bringing another round of gusty winds and showers.
Troughing is found across the Plains, with an embedded short wave moving across western Nebraska. A warm front is branched to the east along the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Deep South.
Clouds will gradually thicken and lower into Saturday as a weak trough/cold front moves through the region.
The position of the high will yield a low level flow generally from the south which will continue to bring warm and moist air into region. Aloft, the region is on the east side of an upper trough. A weak ridge will move east through this upper flow later tonight, helping to dissipate the remaining convective activity to our west.
will prevail over the High Plains Sat-Sat night. Below-freezing temperatures may adversely affect sensitive vegetation. subtle tightening of the MSLP/H85 height gradient on the eastern periphery of a developing lee trough and deep vertical mixing may yield 15-25 mph westerly winds (perhaps gusting to 30 mph).
Dry, warm weather will continue into tomorrow as a brief ridge intrudes into the area and a cold front follows. The cold front is expected to arrive Saturday late afternoon.
/issued 351 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/ Main low near the west end of Lake Superior this afternoon, with a cold front southwest to a second low over north central Texas.
650 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Tonight: Cold front will continue to push southeast into shallow moisture. Wavy warm front snakes across northeast OK, with good convergence and richer surface moisture to the south. Virtually all models suggest storms/precipitation will become widespread in the vicinity of cold front and warm front late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty northwest winds continue across the area this afternoon as a result of a tight pressure gradient between low pressure to the east and high pressure approaching from the west. Wind speeds will diminish this evening as the high reaches the western Dakotas, then settles in over the region overnight and Saturday. The high will begin to get pushed eastward later in the day Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 30s.
312 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Several bands of showers persist across the area early this morning as the center of an upper low pushes east across northeast Kansas. At least scattered activity will continue through sunrise with decreasing trends this morning as the low moves into Missouri. Some low cloud lingers through the day with northwest winds following leading to modest warm-air advection and highs in the lower 60s. Weak ridging builds in both aloft and the surface tonight with clear skies. Have gone on the lower end of guidance for low temps in this scenario. Overnight 850 mb WAA should lead to a warmer day Sunday with perhaps some thin cirrus.
244 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Today will be much cooler (afternoon highs in the 50s) and gusty (20-30 mph), with isolated to numerous rain showers (greatest coverage across central MO and lowest coverage along the AR border). This is due to an upper low moving through the northern CWA.
Quieter and slightly cooler drier weather will return to the forecast area for the remainder of the short term period. Look for highs today to range from the lower 70s to around 80.
315 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Dry northwesterly flow will dominate aloft for the next 24 hours while at the surface the high pressure system will slowly pull east. The modified Canadian airmass will remain over the FA for one more day resulting in high temperatures being about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and maxing out in the 70s area wide.
A closed low will make its way southeastward over eastern KS and into western MO around sunrise. South winds will return overnight and increase a bit over NW OK so overnight lows may be a little tricky with a cooler/drier airmass in place.
Current surface observations show a cold front currently located along the I-35 corridor from just south of Austin to San Antonio, then westward along the Highway 90 corridor to near Del Rio. A sharp dryline is also noted over the Winter Garden area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 20s behind the dryline with upper 60s noted ahead of the dryline. The cold front will continue to make steady, southward progress through the early morning hours and will move south of our region by sunrise today. High temperatures will be much cooler compared to yesterday. Dewpoints will remain relatively low and with plenty of clear skies and a stout low-level thermal ridge to our west, afternoon highs will be above normal.
The overcast skies and plenty of low level moisture should result in only very slowly falling temperatures tonight, with lows mostly in the lower 50s. The question will be how much sunshine can break through the low clouds. Based southeast flow/cold air damming signature, will continue to undercut NBM temps in favor of the cooler Superblend east of the mountains. Sunday should be the warmest day of the long-range period south and east of the Allegheny Front, where highs should reach the low to mid 70s. Expect cooler temperatures for next work-week, as upper-level low pressure continues to slowly progress from the Great Lakes across the northeastern United States. This will also maintain a daily chance of showers, with the highest POPs during peak heating of the afternoon as GEFS plumes show.
The center of low pressure over southern Missouri will lift northeast into Illinois today, reaching the southern tip of Lake Michigan by daybreak Sunday. A cold front draped south of the low is forecast to pass through the region today. The main exception may be northern reaches of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, where moisture rotating around the upper low may result in widely scattered showers later tonight and early Sunday morning.