Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Observations across the region show increased onshore flow through interior northern California due to tightening gradients over the region as a trough off the Pacific Northwest edges closer to the coast. Locally breezy winds over the northern Sierra and southern cascades are forecast as the trough moves inland into mid-week. Zonal flow will continue mid to late week as another trough is forecast to develop off the West coast.
High pressure will expand across the area tonight which will weaken the gradient.
With the warm air advection pushing warm air into the area for tonight we should stay warmer than we did this morning, and stay out of the 30s! Tonight, a cold front will drop south out of Canada and serve to generate more showers and thunderstorms after midnight as the boundary slides into Minnesota. A ridge shifts into the area Tuesday night, and skies should clear and winds will go light once again, and have gone with below the 25th percentile of guidance based on what happened this morning.
516 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 At the surface, low pressure sits over southeastern Wyoming, high pressure to our east. Upper level ridge sits over the western CONUS today.
Low temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than those observed Monday morning. Profiles feature a weak subsidence inversion as a result of the high edging closer, and dewpoints will be generally about 10 degrees lower than Monday. As of 220 pm EDT Monday: Heights will rise during the short term as upper trough shifts off the East Coast.
1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
The upper level synoptic setup is relatively weak and unforced with only subtle diffluent flow south and east of the Ohio Valley trough axis. So weakly forced showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm are expected throughout the day; efficient rainfall is expected in any storms or showers however given the high PWATs, skinny CAPE, and warm cloud layer. High temps Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees below average, only reaching the low 80's in the northern Midlands-Pee Dee, and the mid 80's in the CSRA.
The trough which fueled the overnight showers is lifting to the north as as a ridge shifts inland today over Nevada. Heights will continue to rise on Tuesday as the ridge centers over northern Arizona. This should allow for another slightly below average day in terms on storm coverage with best chances across southern and western Pima County and the higher elevations. This looks to weaken and split the ridge, opening the door for continued moisture and wave activity moving up the western flank of the mid-level ridge.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper ridge has 2 centers today. The ridge over TX will weaken Tuesday as ridge grows over the Western US. A cold front moved into the region yesterday resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures today. Even post frontal with an E wind guidance unusually cool for late June in the low to mid 80s.
847 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening. Made some minor tweaks to low temperatures as winds will continue to diminish allowing temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 60s.
753 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A cold front will push across the region on Tuesday. Cooler air will drop temperatures into the 80s on Tuesday with breezy to windy conditions.
A surface cold front remains draped across the area this evening. A surface cold front has pushed through much of the area today, but the most significant drying is taking place well behind the front, just north of the forecast area. /EC/ Tuesday night through Monday: The chance of precipitation will increase this week as a low pressure disturbance expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico restores deep layer moisture through the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures are expected to be noticeably cooler and more comfortable compared to the oppressive heat that has invaded the region throughout the last 2 weeks or so.
740 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
906 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight, accompanied by cool and dry.
00Z TAF CYCLE Drier air pushing into nw and north central NM as an upper high center develops over the Great Basin and the plume of moisture becomes stretched from west to east over NM and suppressed swd.
1058 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight, accompanied by cool and dry conditions.
Otherwise, the cold front will continue to make slow progress through most if not all of the CWA overnight before stalling west- east across GA/SC. Lows tonight should be a few degrees cooler than those observed this morning. Profiles feature a weak subsidence inversion as a result of the high edging closer, and dewpoints will be generally about 10 degrees lower than today. As of 220 pm EDT Monday: Heights will rise during the short term as upper trough shifts off the East Coast.
/Issued 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022/ A weak cold front is oriented northeast to southwest from the western Carolinas through north Georgia into central Alabama.
510 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 A weak cold front will slowly cross the area tonight bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.
234 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 The upper ridge that brought dry weather the last few days will get broken down today and Wednesday, allowing for the chance of thunderstorms to enter the picture. Ridge axis shifts into central zones this afternoon. Flatter mid level flow for Wednesday, so expecting cooler temperatures.
This is thanks to the boundary that pushed through yesterday bringing some cooler air down our way combined with cloud cover. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for most of the region tonight and tomorrow night with the immediate coast staying in the upper 70s to near 80. The aforementioned boundary has stalled offshore and will be developing a weak low pressure system along it tonight into Wednesday. An increase in the coastal showers and thunderstorms will occur tonight into Wednesday morning as the low pressure system develops.
This evening's convection is hanging in there longer than yesterday's evening convection as the weak upper ridge over the region continues to flatten and retreat westward in response to a broad upper trough passing over the eastern Great lakes and Ohio River regions. With a mix of clouds expected to linger through much of the night, lows temperatures tonight remain on track to only cool into the lower to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s at the beaches. On Wednesday, the weak surface boundary will remain across the area, while an area of weakness aloft persists as another upper trough moves eastward across the Great Lakes.
The trailing upper trough could hold temps down from the James River east. The building ridge in the west, however, will push highs well into the 80s across central SD. Wednesday will feature warming mid level temperatures increasing to upwards of +13 to +14C at 700mb, with the plume of 850mb air coming in from the high plains thanks to a southwest trajectory and measuring around +25 to +28C (about a standard deviation above climo). Thus, while thermal profiles suggest a cap over the area for surface based convection, we could see some inverted-v type elevated convection with heights near the freezing level presenting a wind gust threat.
High pressure is centered along the middle Missouri River Valley with cool northerly winds of 5 to 10 MPH across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. High pressure will slowly shift into the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours. Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is moving southward across Minnesota. CAMs want to develop a line of storms during the afternoon and move it into the the Highway 20 corridor prior to 00 UTC Wednesday while the synoptic models delay the precipitation until Tuesday night. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the lower to mid 50s overnight allow temperatures to quickly cool tonight with low temperatures on Tuesday morning in the upper 50s across the area.
As the deep layer moisture increases late in the week, highs will generally run around 90 to the lower 90s. High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with east to southeast flow each day.
Showers and storms developing as a result of the weak inverted trough will continue to develop through the afternoon and will primarily remain to the south of the I-10 corridor. High temperatures for this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s for locations closer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be in the lower 70s through Wednesday.
With a weak shear axis lingering over SCntrl and SE LA/SCntrl MS from a weak upper low pressure area over the Nrn Gulf just off the LA Coast, any convection redevelopment will remain S of the area, and thus, have removed slight chance pops across Deep E TX and Cntrl LA tonight, and also toned down the sky wording as the cirrus shield continues to thin from the Cntrl/S TX convection.
Narrow mid level ridge remains in place across NOFL as a weak trough over the NW Bahamas drifts NW into SEFL tonight. Mins in the L-M70s, with a U70s possible in the normally warmer Orlando metro and barrier islands. No significant change to onshore pattern with Bermuda high pressure remaining the primary feature across the Wrn Atlc and N of Fl through the period.
149 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will build into the area tonight, accompanied by cool and dry conditions. High pressure will build into the region tonight, accompanied by clear skies over most of the region. Min temps are expected to range from the low 40s in the coolest valleys of the northwest, to the mid 50s over the Lower Susq Valley. High pressure will supply mainly sunny and cool weather to the region Tuesday with light winds. Mixing down model 800mb temps of around 7C supports highs ranging from around 70F over the highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the upper 70s in the Susq Valley.
324 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Surface analysis reveals broad high pressure sprawled across much of the Ohio Valley and Midwest this morning. Low level thickness (1000-850mb) values will be pretty similar today compared to yesterday, so with the added upper level cloud cover, high temps might end up being a degree or so cooler today.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week. Although today will be warmer than yesterday, temperatures are expected to remain below normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, with mid 60s to 70s across the higher elevations. High pressure with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend are expected through the period.
247 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Current surface map places weak trof across central South Dakota. Upper level ridge across the Rockies shifts east today then breaks down Wednesday as trof slides across the northern Rockies. then warm back up over the weekend as ridge builds back.
1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Enhanced CU field and a few showers and storms developing across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country this afternoon, well behind the cold front across Central Texas.
Despite the front being farther south, veering winds and a persistent ridge aloft will begin our warm-up on Wednesday with afternoon highs ranging from near 90 along the Red River to the upper 90s in Central Texas.
A drier pattern takes hold today as weak ridging aloft in the Intermountain West begins to edge eastward into the Western High Plains.
Behind a cold front draped west to east from east central through west central ND, post frontal showers and thunderstorms are gradually moving towards the forecast area from southeastern Saskatchewan. This cold frontal boundary will continue tracking south through the forecast area this morning, although appears it may stall somewhere over west central down through south central ND. For tonight, a warm frontal boundary will slide across the forecast area from west to east. Boundary layer dewpoints may reach the low 60s in the eastern forecast area resulting in moderate amounts of instability. Thunderstorms may fire during the evening and into the overnight hours as a cold frontal boundary passes through.
A sprawling ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky today through Wednesday. We will also see a modest ridge valley temperature split tonight, as winds go nearly calm and skies clear off. The period begins with rising heights around 593mb building into the Lower Ohio Valley.
Starting off this morning, latest satellite and observation trends are showing a broad area of convergence along a low amplitude positive tilted trough moving south-southeast across the Texas Panhandle.
353 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
This will help bring another round of potential showers and thunderstorms to the area and slightly cooler highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s today, and lows in the mid to upper 60s tonight.
NW flow aloft wl bring a mid lvl trof acrs the FA today, accompanied by a band of mid and high lvl clouds. Highs wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
1035 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Temperatures will peak slightly above normal today as the ridge nudges further east. Relative humidity values will bottom out in the lower teens this afternoon, especially across southern areas. On Tuesday the ridge will be flattened a bit as a low moves into the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, temperatures will further increase, generally into the low 90s east and upper 80s south. The ridge will be flattening out by the trough racing by to the north on Wednesday, bringing a weak cold front through the state during the day. The lack of a suppressing ridge will allow daytime heating to spark showers along the higher elevations each afternoon, before drifting off to the east.
/issued 847 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this evening. Made some minor tweaks to low temperatures as winds will continue to diminish allowing temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 60s. Slightly warmer conditions return Wednesday as a weak broad ridge builds in from the west.
Mid lvl trof wl bring some mid and high lvl clouds to region at times. Cold front has pushed thru the state, and high pressure is building into the area. The front will remain south of the area as high pressure continues to build into the area through the short term. Aloft, a ridge will build across the western US, with a northwesterly flow prevailing across the area.
High pressure and northwesterly flow aloft will again dominate today's weather before the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS begins to build into the region tomorrow. Today will be just a tick warmer and more humid than yesterday as the airmass slowly modifies, but it will be largely similar to the beautiful weather we saw yesterday. By tomorrow, the high will shift to the east of the region beneath the building ridge, resulting in weak S/SW low level flow.
Wednesday thunderstorm chances begin to decrease as a trough of low pressure approaches the west coast, drying out the atmosphere and cooling conditions into the holiday weekend.
331 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Discussion/Marine - Showers and a few thunderstorms possible tonight, early Wednesday An upper low moving over Hudson Bay will swing a trough through the Great Lakes late tonight.
With the added cloud cover and moisture across the region high temperatures should be a tad cooler this afternoon with temperatures peaking out in the mid 80s. Activity should come to an end around 10 pm with clearing skies through the night allowing temperatures to drop back into the lower 60s.
132 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 A cold front will stall near the area Tuesday and Wednesday, then dissipate late in the week. The region will remain under the influence of a large ridge that stretches across nearly the entire southern half of the U. , one after another through mid-week, they will slowly push a cold front across the forecast area Tuesday, stalling along/near the coast through mid-week. Large scale subsidence warming the low and mid-levels has limited the overall instability across the area, thus the potential for severe weather is low.
Dew points were running in the 60s north of the boundary and in the lower 70s south of the boundary.
HRRR Model forecast soundings showing fairly dry air from the mid-levels down to the surface across northern and central Oklahoma, so some uncertainty if the lower-levels will moisten sufficiently for rain to reach the ground. However, forecast soundings suggesting ample saturation of the lower levels in time across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, where rain chances will be highest. Although we'll see another warm afternoon, temperatures are still expected to be about 5 degrees cooler than average for late June days.
132 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Aviation We are continuing with the overall theme of predominantly dry and warmer weather into the weekend with temperatures at or above normal.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning eastward through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing in eastern Colorado. Temperatures throughout southwest KS at 18Z vary widely, from the low 50s under the heaviest precipitation and thickest cloud cover to the low 80s near I-70 where skies are mostly clear.
A trough persists over the eastern half of the country with northwesterly flow aloft from the Northern Plains in the OH Valley.
The high pressure centered just to our west will continue to gradually drift southward allowing for weak westerly flow. Still expect showers and storms to fire on the high terrain around mid day. The San Juans and portions of southwest Colorado remain the place with the highest chances for storms today. The westerly flow looks to usher in slightly warmer temperatures so highs may increase by about 5 degrees from yesterday. Over the course of tonight and tomorrow the high becomes centered over AZ and NM allowing for better moisture advection from the pool across the Desert Southwest. This is mainly due to a low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest. Showers and storms are still expect to develop in the higher terrain elsewhere.
341 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft continues overhead as we remain between ridging across the western U. and troughing in the northeast. At the surface, high pressure extends across southern Kansas and Missouri while a weak area of low pressure/weak surface frontal boundary extends across southeastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota. This should push highs in northeast Nebraska into the low 90s with upper 80s common across the remainder of the CWA.
Another cooler than normal day is expected today as a very subtle upper level wave passes over the area. A stronger trough will be moving through southern Canada with a surface cold front stretching into the Great Lakes region.
For today, the surface anticyclone will drift to the southeast enough to allow modest westerly return flow to build back in across the Great Lakes region. 850mb temperatures are progged to be some 7 to 8C warmer than yesterday which will support highs today of around 80 degrees. A progressive midlevel trough and strong lobe of planetary vorticity across Canada will force a cold front down into Lower Michigan late this afternoon and tonight. Bulk of the forcing for ascent along/ahead of the cold front will come in the form of left exit region dynamics coupled with 700-500mb frontogenesis. The one item that causes some pause is the cold frontal boundary will be invof Metro Detroit as it begins to lift back into a warm front after 18Z.
359 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Upper ridging over the Rockies this morning, with troughing along the Atlantic Coast. This boundary separates moist air with dew points in the lower and middle 70s to the south from drier air with dew points near 60 to the north. away from direct marine influences, temperatures were generally in the mid 70s, with readings close to 80 near the much warmer waters.
411 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will keep mainly dry weather through most of the work week. After initially seasonably cool weather, temperatures will become much warmer by late in the week.
135 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 A cold front tracks east of the region tonight. High pressure building in its wake will then remain in control through Fri. Fair wx returns as high pressure builds toward the area. Expect a thermal trough to develop in the afternoon and help establish a coastal sea breeze as well as aid in development of afternoon fair wx Cu. With a mostly clear night expected Tue night, low temps in the urban areas should be similar to those expected for tonight, mainly 60-65, but inland areas and the Long Island Pine Barrens may be a little cooler, with lower 50s expected there. The pattern aloft will be characterized by troughiness through Wednesday night.
1152 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 High pressure will expand across the area tonight which will weaken the gradient.
245 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 A cold front will stall near the NC/SC border later this moring. The front will remain there as weak high pressure builds in from the north.
238 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 An upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will extend north over the Rockies into the western Canadian Provinces. This will bring a warmer airmass into the area today. A weak warm front will extend east across the central Sandhills today with light southerly winds near I80 and light northerly and easterly winds across north central NE. Tonight, the warm front will lift north into South Dakota. A disturbance and prefrontal trough will approach western portions of the area during the afternoon with a slight chance for thunderstorms across the northwest Sandhills. The prefrontal trough and passing disturbance will bring up to a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern half of the forecast area during the evening, which should dissipate by midnight.
302 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Quiet conditions with slightly warmer temperatures than compared to 24hrs ago were found early this morning. Latest CAMs and the 00z HREF continue to show a signal for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over northeast IA late this afternoon and early evening along a cold front and track southeast into the highway 20 corridor. However, I have some concerns with the dry sub-cloud layer as shown on the 00z DVN sounding and the models overdoing the low level moisture today.
High pressure continues to weaken today as an upper low located off of the PacNW coast begins to move onshore later this afternoon and evening. Little impacts for interior Northern California with this feature besides increased onshore flow and high temperatures a degree or two cooler than those of yesterday.
1219 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine overnight, with high pressure then building in from the west through Wednesday.
Southeast breezes around 10 mph are holding temperatures in the lower 80s at most island locations. Surface analysis depicts a weak trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico, with a front along the Eastern Seaboard and across the Southeastern states, and weak high pressure displaced eastward over the western Atlantic. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over the northwestern Bahamas and eastern Florida Straits, with a mid latitude trough moving off the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast. As a result, the subtropical ridge is fragmented and weaker than normal for the end of June.