Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
315 AM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Increasing high pressure into the weekend will bring drier and warmer weather with temperatures rising to above normal readings beginning this weekend. Skies have also mostly cleared across Phoenix and areas to the west allowing early morning temperatures to dip into the lower 40s for a good portion of the lower deserts. Overnight lows Thursday night will even be a bit cooler than this morning's lows with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s across the Arizona deserts to lower 40s across southeast California. High amplitude ridging will transition through the Western U.
2 range in agreement with central FL morning sounding data with lingering dry air in the lower to mid levels. Much warmer mins tonight with M- U60s and ever some L70s along the Space and treasure Coast barrier islands.
403 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Precipitation chances associated with trough advancing through the plains states today and Friday will be the primary forecast issue. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over Baja continues to shear apart as additional energy drops southeast across the southern Rockies. Eventually, lower levels will moisten as trough swings east tonight into Friday while a surface boundary drops southeast, with resultant forcing bringing scattered areas of light rain, especially southeast of I-44 where relatively higher POPs maintained tonight and Friday. After front passes through tonight will see a cooler day Friday with some areas seeing temperatures more or less steady or even falling slightly through the day.
Dew point temperatures ranging from the low 50s north to the upper 50s/near 60 central and south will gradually increase through the day and especially tonight into early Friday morning. Areas of sea and coastal fog expected later tonight into Friday as this higher dew point air flows over cooler coastal and bay waters.
512 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
Can't rule out a dusting near the Pine Ridge with the help of orographic forcing. Max temps cool back into the 30s today behind the cold front. Gusty northwest winds at times and considerable cloud cover will make it feel even cooler. Forecast lows remain above season norms in the lower/mid 20s. An upper low develops within the main trough over MN/IA, which swings a lobe of cooler air into northern Plains. Highs stay near freezing for most of the Sandhills, while southwest Neb gains a little more influence from a building Western US ridge and could reach 40F. Soundings suggest decent mid- level forcing associated with the low, but dry air below H7 keeps appreciable precip chances at bay.
652 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Warm front brings periods of rain this afternoon and evening. Low pressure system and its associated cold front cross the area Friday night. This flow will pump moisture and warmer air, developing a warm front. We may see a lull in the rain late Friday afternoon or evening before the cold front swings through Friday night as low pressure tracks in the Great Lakes.
The combination of an upper level trough approaching Texas today and a Pacific front late this afternoon into tomorrow will continue to produce light to moderate showers along and east of Interstate through 35 through this afternoon. The front will move through late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning resulting in a windy day Friday with partly cloudy skies and cooler afternoon highs. As the upper trough traverses the state on Friday a stray shower will be possible across Val Verde county before the trough finally clears all of the clouds and rain out late in the day on Friday.
/Issued 403 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ Precipitation chances associated with trough advancing through the plains states today and Friday will be the primary forecast issue. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over Baja continues to shear apart as additional energy drops southeast across the southern Rockies. Eventually, lower levels will moisten as trough swings east tonight into Friday while a surface boundary drops southeast, with resultant forcing bringing scattered areas of light rain, especially southeast of I-44 where relatively higher POPs maintained tonight and Friday. After front passes through tonight will see a cooler day Friday with some areas seeing temperatures more or less steady or even falling slightly through the day.
High pressure aloft will expand across the western states Friday, followed by a couple of weather disturbances crossing northern Utah over the weekend.
655 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Cold front has moved through the area and cooler air was moving into mainly the MN side. Upper air pattern continues with short waves moving over a long wave ridge over the western US. Upper jet along the northern periphery of upper ridge. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over southern MAN. Upper trough will move into Ontario by this afternoon. Cold front preceded the trough and was currently located from east of BJI to AXN. A little cooler today mostly in the northeast zones. Warm front will precede upper system with low to mid level frontogenesis.
At the same time, the low in the plains will drag the frontal boundary into northwest Arkansas late tonight/early Friday. Rainfall should end fairly quickly Friday night as an upper trough digs down into the southern plains and Mid South region and northwest/quasi-meridional upper flow develops.
This is occurring at the leading edge of digging midlevel trough that is approaching. By evening, there could be enough modest moistening in the lower part of the atmosphere from persistent south-southwesterly flow to support some showers, particulary along and just ahead of approaching midlevel trough axis. The surface reflection of the approaching trough is a cold front that will move eastward across the area today. The juxtaposition of modest moisture and forcing from midlevel trough axis may cause peak coverage in shower coverage/intensity, albeit not very extensive, to occur early Friday before pushing east. Otherwise, post-frontal air mass will be cooler but about normal for early January.
Given the forcing is weak and transient, and considering the potential for absence of moisture in the dendritic layer, precipitation types of freezing drizzle, drizzle, flurries and light snow are all possible.
Increasing high pressure into the weekend will bring drier and warmer weather with temperatures rising to above normal readings beginning this weekend. Skies have also mostly cleared across Phoenix and areas to the west allowing early morning temperatures to dip into the lower 40s for a good portion of the lower deserts. Overnight lows Thursday night will even be a bit cooler than this morning's lows with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s across the Arizona deserts to lower 40s across southeast California. High amplitude ridging will transition through the Western U.
A clipper embedded in general troughing aloft will progress through southern Canada today, bringing both a warm front and cold front through the forecast area in the short term. Winds will turn westerly early this morning as a warm front passes through, bringing some weak warm air advection to the area. Snow is expected to taper off early Friday morning in the east, as a modest high pressure behind the cold front moves in and keeps high temperatures in the 20s, although clearing skies will finally give us some sunshine.
Leeside trough remains over the eastern plains of southeast WYoming this afternoon with a very tight surface gradient to the west of this trough. Kept the High Wind Warnings going through the evening hours this evening as Craig to Casper stay above 60mtrs until 06Z this evening. Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warnings to 06Z tonight Vs the 03Z end time previous.
The models are all in very good agreement on the upper trough shifting overhead slowly into Friday. The cold front will be arriving in TX counties early tomorrow and Shreveport about lunchtime and Monroe mid to late aftn helping to move the back edge out of the area.
Expect warmer temperatures starting Friday and over the coming weekend.
523 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough near the four corners region with broad southwest flow from Texas across much of the southeast U. For today, upper trough will shift into the central and southern plains with a cold front advancing to just west of the CWA by 00z. Colder air will move in behind the front, but the cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures in the lower 40s in the southeast. The cold air push will be more significant starting Friday as the main upper trough pushes into the area. Lift from the upper trough will continue our rain chances, with the better chances remaining in the southeast CWA.
High pressure on Friday will continue to push off to the east and winds will shift around to a more southerly direction across the area. This will allow for warm temperatures during the afternoon as they will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro area to the upper 80s across portions of the interior.
Dry conditions will prevail across the region through Friday afternoon as ridging over the eastern Pacific amplifies and moves into the West Coast.
556 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Upper air pattern continues with short waves moving over a long wave ridge over the western US. Upper jet along the northern periphery of upper ridge. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over southern MAN. Upper trough will move into Ontario by this afternoon. Cold front preceded the trough and was currently located from east of BJI to AXN. A little cooler today mostly in the northeast zones. Warm front will precede upper system with low to mid level frontogenesis.
mainly sunny skies are expected today and tomorrow as weak offshore flow and high pressure combine to bring a brief period of dry weather to the region.
626 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 High pressure will shift offshore today ahead of a front that will bring a chance of showers through Friday night.
After this, amplified upper ridge pushes in from the west allowing for dry conditions from late Thursday into Friday night. For temps, 20s expected for lows tonight into Friday night, while high temps will top off in the lower to mid 40s Thursday and Friday. These highs will be affected by lingering clouds Thursday and the slow push out of cold air ahead of the arrival of the upper ridge going into Friday.
Dry and Warmer. As another cold front approaches, from the northwest, surface winds today will be from the southwest and west. For tonight, the cold front will move toward the south, across West Central Texas, and bring surface winds from the northwest. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 30s, as cooler air moves into West Central Texas, from the northwest.
At the surface, southwesterly winds were ushering warmer air to the region. There is a weak cold front that is expected to move through the area today, dropping temps and leading to a low chance for precip. The warm temperatures of the morning and afternoon will turn cooler as a cold front moves through the area tonight. Some guidance hints at precip with this fropa, however it appears that it will be moisture starved in the low levels. Otherwise, the lows tonight will range from the 20s to low 30s.
357 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Upper air pattern continues with short waves moving over a long wave ridge over the western US. Upper jet along the northern periphery of upper ridge. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over southern MAN. Upper trough will move into Ontario by this afternoon. Cold front preceded the trough and was currently located from east of BJI to AXN. A little cooler today mostly in the northeast zones. Warm front will precede upper system with low to mid level frontogenesis.
248 AM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 The troughs in the northern and southern branches of the upper flow phase together and move through the region today. As the upper trough sharpens and moves across the plains states, an upper ridge amplifies over the western U.
511 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 An amplified upper level trough is moving out of the Rockies and onto the Plains today. The NAM, GFS,and ECMWF are farther east into Iowa with the closed low diving southeast compared to yesterday. The path of the low if forecast with more of an eastward component with its movement (the ECMWF most so), rather than much more of a south movement from previous solutions.
Most obs currently reporting snow, but there may be some mixed precip on the back side of this system as low stratus slides through with warmer temperatures aloft sliding in from the west.
A surface cold front will then move eastward through the area later this morning into this afternoon. With temperatures hovering in the lower 30s, will have to watch for the possibility of some very light freezing rain for awhile this morning mainly north of I- 94. A narrow ridge of high pressure builds in tonight behind the cold front for quiet conditions with perhaps a few breaks in cloud cover. Models continue to show a closed low moving southeast out of the Northern Plains and through the area Friday into Friday night.
Isold TS will be possible as well with moisture import off the Gulf, esp as the cold front draws near. The models are all in very good agreement on the upper trough shifting overhead slowly into Friday. The cold front will be arriving in TX counties early tomorrow and Shreveport about lunchtime and Monroe mid to late aftn helping to move the back edge out of the area.
Friday will be dry and cooler, although high temperatures will still be in the 30s at most locations.
354 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 A clipper embedded in general troughing aloft will progress through southern Canada today, bringing both a warm front and cold front through the forecast area in the short term. Winds will turn westerly early this morning as a warm front passes through, bringing some weak warm air advection to the area. Snow is expected to taper off early Friday morning in the east, as a modest high pressure behind the cold front moves in and keeps high temperatures in the 20s, although clearing skies will finally give us some sunshine.
Gusty northwest winds will develop later this morning as a surface cold front moves into south central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. As an upper level trough approaches early today there will be an increase mid level moisture based on the latest RAP and NAM BUFR soundings. Highs may end up being up to 5 degrees cooler across north central Kansas. Early tonight the upper level trough will cross western Kansas. As this upper wave passes a reinforcement of cooler air will invade north central and southwest Kansas along with the potential for some increasing low clouds based on the moisture profiles in the boundary layer from the NAM, mainly across north central Kansas. A warming trend is expected over the weekend as a weakening upper level ridge crosses the Rockies and a westerly down slope flow improves.
Overall, a relatively quiet next several days looks to be in store as broad ridging sets up over the western CONUS.
445 AM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 The troughs in the northern and southern branches of the upper flow phase together and move through the region today. As the upper trough sharpens and moves across the plains states, an upper ridge amplifies over the western U.
The upper trough axis is moving over the state at the present time, but cold advection with continuing orographic forcing will continue through most of today. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to the upper trough and cold air advection moving over the state.
231 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Overcast conditions were occuring this afternoon across the area as moisture continues to stream north into the area ahead of a deep trough. Water vapor imagery showed this trough well with several pieces of energy rotating around it from eastern Arizona into Mexico then back up into Texas.
The main axis of precipitation will remain well east of the region, although should see some light measurable rainfall tonight and into Friday from southeast OK into western AR as the main upper trof approaches. The cold front will move through the area by late Friday morning, with afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than today.
1032 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
251 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 (Tonight and Friday) A cold front will move through the area tonight, with winds becoming north at 10 to 20 mph for Friday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Cloudy and cooler temperatures for Friday as a surface front moves across the region overnight.
202 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Split flow upper air pattern across North America features a deep trof centered across the Southern Plains into Mexico with a pair of northern disturbances across Ontario and Alberta.
1025 AM MST Thu Jan 2 2020 Northerly winds have developed over Colorado Springs and Pueblo, which is indicative of the cold front passing over the plains. The upper level trough axis will pass over the region this morning, cutting precipitation rates over the areas under the Winter Weather Advisory (Sawatch and northern Mosquito Mountains). Snowfall rates don't warrant the Winter Weather Advisory to continue likely past 1200 MDT, but blowing snow will still cause hazardous travel conditions over the higher elevations, therefore the advisory will continue through 1600 MDT. The cold air is being reinforced with the trough passage and cold air advecting from the northwest. Any additional accumulations will remain very light and under an inch across the higher peaks.
/issued 455 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ (Today and Tonight) As another cold front approaches, from the northwest, surface winds today will be from the southwest and west. For tonight, the cold front will move toward the south, across West Central Texas, and bring surface winds from the northwest. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 30s, as cooler air moves into West Central Texas, from the northwest.
These warm conditions will be coming to an end, however, as a cold front drops southward across the area later this evening and overnight.
Cold front has moved through the area and cooler air was moving into mainly the MN side. Upper air pattern continues with short waves moving over a long wave ridge over the western US. Upper jet along the northern periphery of upper ridge. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over southern MAN. Upper trough will move into Ontario by this afternoon. Cold front preceded the trough and was currently located from east of BJI to AXN. A little cooler today mostly in the northeast zones. Warm front will precede upper system with low to mid level frontogenesis.
Global models appear to have underestimated the forcing and mid level pool of moisture in the base of the trough this afternoon across Far West Texas and northern Mexico. The base of the trough is forecast to swing through the CWA Friday morning. Clearing is expected southwest to northeast Friday afternoon, however cooler conditions behind a cold front are forecast with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s across the Hill Country to low 60s elsewhere.
Dry weather and warmer temperatures will then move in starting Friday and last through the coming weekend.
153 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 A progressive and amplified wave pattern continues across the CONUS with a deepening trough of low pressure over the central US which will maintain above normal temperatures across the forecast area today through Friday.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough near the four corners region with broad southwest flow from Texas across much of the southeast U. For today, upper trough will shift into the central and southern plains with a cold front advancing to just west of the CWA by 00z. Colder air will move in behind the front, but the cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures in the lower 40s in the southeast. The cold air push will be more significant starting Friday as the main upper trough pushes into the area. Lift from the upper trough will continue our rain chances, with the better chances remaining in the southeast CWA.
358 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
251 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region early Friday.
A more widespread area of light snow should push through the mountains near Baker/McCall this afternoon and evening, as a warm-front-like feature moves over, ahead of the ridge that will be over the area tomorrow. Then dry and warmer on Friday everywhere.
/issued 900 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2020/ Dry with high pressure dominating across South Florida. This will allow temperatures to moderate into the low 80s and moisture will gradually return to the area. High pressure on Friday will continue to push off to the east and winds will shift around to a more southerly direction across the area. This will allow for warm temperatures during the afternoon as they will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro area to the upper 80s across portions of the interior.
This won't have much of an impact on our weather except for an increase in winds as a cold front moves southeast across the area. winds will increase all areas after midnight, with the highest gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected Friday morning across portions of north central Nebraska. The airmass behind the front will be a hybrid of Pacific and Arctic air, with highs coldest in the lower 30s Friday across portions of north central Nebraska.
1119 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Cold front is moving south through the forecast area this morning currently positioned from Lubbock to the northeast. /issued 341 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2020/ The cold front is pushing its way southward and is currently moving into the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. The activity will be short lived and will cease once the upper trough axis bisects the region later tonight.
205 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 A brief ridge of high pressure overhead, extending from the southwest, will sink to the southeast as a clipper system moves in from the northwest. Behind the low, expect the increased pressure gradient to assist in winds increasing out of the northwest 15-20kts with gusts around 25-30kts. The strongest winds should be across areas west of the James River 06Z-15Z before moderating across our eastern counties as the low shifts into southern MN. Expect a ridge of high pressure to slide across the Dakotas and NE Friday night.
An upper level trough will move east of the area through tomorrow with upper level ridging building over the western United States.
157 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 A secondary shrtwv trof will drop sewd across NM tonight resulting in an expansion of precip from 00Z onward. Temps will remain on the cool side Fri PM in the nw flow aloft in wake of trof. Lee troffing will favor warming Sat with temps back into the 60s.
244 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020 Other than a few sprinkles in far southeastern portions of the forecast area, quiet conditions are expected in the wake of a cold frontal passage this evening. A strong upper wave evident in water vapor over southern Alberta will dive southeastward tonight and Friday, pushing a reinforcing shot of cold air advection into the Plains and holding tomorrow's high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
Looks like temperatures will be slightly warmer today with the lack of significant cloud cover. The troughs in the northern and southern branches of the upper flow phase together and move through the region today. As the upper trough sharpens and moves across the plains states, an upper ridge amplifies over the western U.
The advancing trough to the west will pull deeper moisture across N FL and GA but continued proximity to the Bahamas ridge will keep dry conditions in the forecast.
Similarly, an associated warm front is slowly lifting northward towards northern Mississippi.