Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
200 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 Early morning satellite imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows large scale ridging in place across the western US, with a trough over the northern Mississippi River Valley. NW flow aloft is primarily holding influence across the Central High Plains, with ridging beginning to build across the Central Rockies. At the surface 1027-1028 MB high pressure is in place over our CWA. Regarding Frost Advisory this morning: Tds have decreased into the low to mid 30s and temps have declined to near 40F (upper 30s at a few locations).
Looking east to west, there is a closed low over Newfoundland, with a high amplitude ridge over the Great Lakes that extends north of Hudson Bay. The axis of the northern Plains trough that brought us precipitation yesterday was now over eastern SDak to northwest KS. Good 500 mb height falls were noted on the 12Z raobs east of our CWA, while to the west heights were building (60-70 m at UNR & DNR in past 12 hrs) Further west, ridging was building into the coast. Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure was situated over eastern Manitoba with high pressure building into the Rockies.
1157 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Upper level ridge of high pressure with axis extending north through ID will maintain a dry and stable NW flow aloft across the region tonight. Significant warming is still expected Monday/Tuesday as the ridge axis moves overhead with continued dry and mainly clear conditions. High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and dry conditions across the region during the forecast period. An upper level high pressure ridge will bring quiet weather to the forecast area throughout this period. The ridge axis will gradually shift east from the Pacific Coast to over the Rockies by Tuesday. Overnight lows will mostly fall into the 40s, but 30s are possible in the higher mountain valleys.
239 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 Strong high pressure will remain over northern California and Nevada through Tuesday bringing dry conditions, light winds and well above normal temperatures.
346 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A quasi-stationary front across southwestern NC will return north as a warm front tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
122 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the area tonight but will weaken by late Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will cross the forecast area and push off the coast by mid week and high pressure will build into the region by the end of the week. This activity will gradually expand closer to the beaches through the night as surface moisture convergence increases in response to the formation of a weak coastal trough off along the Georgia coast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northeastern U. early Monday will gradually shift offshore as a cold front approaches from the west. Elevated moisture and proximity to a coastal trough will keep precipitation chances in the forecast each day.
Dry and warm weather under a ridge of high pressure will continue through Tuesday across Nevada.
132 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 No fog is expected overnight, but clouds will be increasing through the morning and early afternoon as a cold front approaches.
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with a warming trend through the first part of the week.
508 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Storms near the coast have waned and storms over the Hill Country expanding west with mid level troughing from HOU-CLL and mid level ridging from LFK-BPT-BYY. At 4 am front looks to be along a line from Longview to Waco to Junction with ridging having helped to back our winds to the northeast and shifting low level convergence into the Gulf. The clouds will persist today given the moisture present but the lower cigs should improve by mid morning or so and transition over to CU and abundant high clouds so we should struggle to get to the mid 80s. This afternoon scattered precip develops as front sags southward and by 3 to 6 pm should be close to the Highway 59 corridor probably pushing offshore tonight/early Tuesday.
High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight. Eastern portions of central ND should remain in the lower 40s with stronger winds remaining through the night. But with current dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, think it's wise to drop temperatures a bit. Strong northwest winds will continue this afternoon southwest of deep low pressure across northeast Manitoba and western Ontario in the wake of a cold front entering northwest Minnesota.
249 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 A large upper level low pressure system will continue to drop southeast into the Great Lakes today and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by later in the week. This will push a cold front across the Mid South today with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and drier air will push into the region behind the front for later today and tonight. Cooler and less humid weather will continue through the first part of the week with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in the 50s.
636 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 High pressure will cross the region today with plenty of sunshine and near seasonal temperatures. High pressure will build across the region from Labrador by mid week. previous discussion High pressure will continue to build across the region early today and then move off the New england coast this afternoon. An upper low across the northern Great Lakes will drop slowly south through the period.
The strong upper trough will move east then back south over the region tonight, as the cold front clears our CWA later this evening.
411 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A ridge of high pressure will move east of the region today. All models show a cold front with decent moisture passing through the region and a dry slot developing over the North Country however there is about 12 hours difference in the timing between the GFS and the NAM/GEM/EC with the GFS as the more progressive system. Then as the dry slot moves in over the North Country the parent upper level low gets sheared off and is broken up with the front sagging offshore into the Atlantic. The closed circulation of the upper level low then pivots down from central Ontario into the Ohio Valley region by mid week.
An upper level trough was moving eastward into the Great Lakes region while an upper level ridge was building across the Rockies. High pressure was continuing to the build into the state behind a cold front that was located from southern Missouri and southwest Oklahoma. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s.
/issued 412 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017/ Despite abundant cloud cover today, gusty southerly winds and strong warm air advection have allowed temperatures to soar into the 70s areawide and even into the low 80s in a couple of locations. The approach of a weak backdoor cold front should provide enough lift for the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms this evening through mid afternoon Saturday.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across north Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over south Florida tonight.
18Z surface data has a cold front running from central Wisconsin into southwest Missouri. Dew points were in the 40s and 50s ahead of the cold front with 30s behind the front across the Plains. Some of the extratropical cyclones that develop across the CONUS will have the potential to be strong.
An area of low pressure with a center in northwest Ontario will continue to move through the Northland tonight along with a cold front. Surface temperatures as of 20Z ranged from around 30 at KCKC to the lower to middle thirties most other areas. Precipitation types will vary from light rain/drizzle, to snow, to a period of freezing drizzle. We expect the coverage of freezing drizzle to be limited and do not plan on any headlines. Highs Saturday will range from the lower to middle thirties along the International Border, to the upper thirties to around forty from the Brainerd Lakes area east to Pine City, Hayward, and Park Falls.
Otherwise, a weak cold front is located across southern Oklahoma and will likely make it toward the Red River after dark. As the low-level jet increases later tonight, this may provide enough localized lift for a few areas of light rain to develop north of a Bowie to McKinney to Emory line. Upper level ridging will dominate the area for the next several days resulting in above normal temperatures.
An impressive plume of mid and upper-level moisture is moving ashore in the Pacific Northwest ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.
A strong upper trough will move across WI tonight with a cold frontal passage reaching Lake MI by 02-03Z. High pressure will settle over srn WI for Sat night and Sun morning. Cigs around 1 kft over far ern WI along with MVFR Vsbys will end early this evening as a cold front with brisk wnwly winds arrive. Low level cold advective regime kicks in with low level thermal trough setting up across the area.
Made some minor tweaks to the suite of forecast products for this evening per expected model consensus of short ranging timing of numerous shwrs and mainly sct tstms ahead of the associated sfc cold front that is expected to move close to the Land Between The Lakes Region by around 18/06Z and then push sewd thru the majority of the mid state by 18/12Z.
706 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Cold front has entered the northwest part of the forecast area early this afternoon, and was roughly along the Illinois River at 2 pm. Some nice clearing has taken place west of it, and temperatures have quickly risen into the lower 60s from Galesburg to Jacksonville and was even near 70 toward Quincy. 925 mb humidity plots off the RAP model suggest this reaching the northern part of the CWA mid to late evening, and encompassing a good part of it by morning, as an upper low tracks southeast across the western Great Lakes region. This should diminish from west to east as the upper low pulls away. The last half of the weekend will start out with high pressure shifting east of Illinois, and a southerly flow developing.
/issued 325 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017/ Surface observations at 2 PM placed a weak cold front from near Seminole northeast to Guthrie. As surface ridging nudges south from the Panhandles on Saturday, cool and moist upslope winds will persist for much of the day and delay the erosion of stratus.
811 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Aviation Low pressure will move across Lower Michigan tonight.
Cyclonic flow/caa continues behind the cold front. but we should see ample sunshine along with lighter winds as the high pressure ridge moves through. perhaps a degree cooler.
830 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Mixed precipitation is expected through Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region. A rapid update was issued to headline freezing rain with additional light snow as some reports of fzra/icing have started to arrive. Also being monitored is the freezing rain potential, but this appears limited given the aforementioned weakening dynamics/limited qpf. The upper low will drift across on Saturday, bringing colder 850 mb temperatures back to the region.
702 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 A warm front will move north of the forecast area this evening. A low pressure system will push a cold front through the region overnight.
1022 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build into the region with clearing skies and cool temperatures expected today and tonight.
816 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Mixed precipitation is expected through Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region. Also being monitored is the freezing rain potential, but this appears limited given the aforementioned weakening dynamics/limited qpf. The upper low will drift across on Saturday, bringing colder 850 mb temperatures back to the region.
807 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Mid/upper level troughing will continue over the eastern CONUS through the weekend with a dry northwest flow across the region. High pressure over the region tonight will drift west into the gulf during Saturday as the next cold front approaches from the north.
Current temp trends showing forecasted overnight low values being reached at CKV, but latest GFS lamp showing the potential for much warmer lows at BNA/CSV. /ISSUED / Made some minor tweaks to the suite of forecast products for this evening per expected model consensus of short ranging timing of numerous shwrs and mainly sct tstms ahead of the associated sfc cold front that is expected to move close to the Land Between The Lakes Region by around 18/06Z and then push sewd thru the majority of the mid state by 18/12Z.
/Issued 255 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017/ Tonight will be a much warmer night than has been experienced in quite a few days as southerly flow has returned to the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Low temperatures Saturday morning will generally range from the upper 40s to the low 50s. Rainfall totals with this event will be highest across north Georgia, though even the highest totals are expected to remain around a half inch.
The convection is occurring ahead of a cold front that is moving into the area. A cold front currently stretches from northern Illinois through southwest Missouri and into northwest Texas. The cold front will move out of north Mississippi Saturday morning with a few showers possible along and just behind the front. High pressure will start to build into the region by the afternoon hours. The air behind this cold front is not much cooler than ahead of it so temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will remain in control of the weather for the remainder of the weekend.
643 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Current satellite imagery showing mid and high level moisture moving over upper ridge into NE Colorado. As the ridge builds eastward 700 mb temps increase that will help to bring overnight lows into the mid to upper 40s and temperatures for the weekend into the lower 80s.
Areas of very light showers will continue into the overnight hours as a strong upper trough and cold front moves through srn WI. High pressure will settle over srn WI for Sat night and Sun AM. Brisk nwly winds are forecast after the passage of a cold front. A strong upper trough will move across WI tonight with a cold frontal passage reaching Lake MI by 02-03Z. High pressure will settle over srn WI for Sat night and Sun morning. Cigs around 1 kft over far ern WI along with MVFR Vsbys will end early this evening as a cold front with brisk wnwly winds arrive. Low level cold advective regime kicks in with low level thermal trough setting up across the area.
For TYS and CHA, storms may produce gusty winds since the low-level jet is strong (850mb winds of 35-40kts). Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 70 39 62 / 90 50 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 65 34 56 / 90 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 66 34 56 / 90 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 61 32 50 / 90 50 10 10.
831 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 High pressure ridge will be overhead Tonight, with clear skies.
An axis of elevated instability over the Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon has been the breeding ground for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The activity will move south of the Tennessee border by midnight as a surface cold front moves southeast across our region. The potential for cloud cover in that area may reinforce the thermal gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley. The combination of clear skies and light winds should allow temps to fall below freezing in some areas, mainly north and east of kpah. In light of our recent hard freezes, these near-freezing temps are unlikely to have much additional impact on vegetation.
Currently temperatures are dropping faster than predicted over the west where high pressure is situated and clouds have thinned some. Not real excited about the possibility as the higher dewpoint air is limited to the very lower boundary layer. With high pressure and light winds some of the short-term models are hinting at fog overnight. Much colder temperatures are expected mainly north and east, with cloud cover potentially limiting the high pressure temperature plunge west. However, we will see a quick rebound in temperatures tomorrow as an upper level ridge and warm air advection moves into the region.
However, the airmass will not be as cold as the past couple of nights with overnight lows generally ranging from the lower 40s across the eastern part of the area to upper 40s across the western part of the area to the low to mid 50s along the panhandle coast.
1051 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 A warm front will move north of the forecast area this evening. A low pressure system will push a cold front through the region overnight.
Although a cold front has brought easterly winds, strong moisture will move into the area from the east. /issued 325 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017/ Surface observations at 2 PM placed a weak cold front from near Seminole northeast to Guthrie. As surface ridging nudges south from the Panhandles on Saturday, cool and moist upslope winds will persist for much of the day and delay the erosion of stratus.
High pressure over the waters will allow for light winds and subsiding seas of 1 - 3 feet.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 70 39 62 / 90 50 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 65 34 56 / 90 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 66 34 56 / 90 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 61 32 50 / 90 50 10 10 TN.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Latest 12z model runs show an upper ridge building across the western U. The ridge axis will push across the CWA on Saturday with warm and dry weather conditions.
853 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Warm front this evening. Cold front late tonight into Saturday.
749 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Areas of fog and some light drizzle is expected through the evening ahead of a cold front that will move through late tonight.
1212 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Mixed precipitation is expected through Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region. Areas of light snow, sleet and freezing rain remain possible though overnight with weak warm advection, so maintained the winter weather advisory through 6AM. The upper low will drift across on Saturday, bringing colder 850 mb temperatures back to the region.
A Pacific cold front was shifting across southwest Missouri this afternoon. This feature will bring in a slightly cooler and drier airmass for tonight and Saturday. Look for highs to range from middle 60s to the lower 70s.
511 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Latest upper air analysis continues to show the ridge over the Great Basin. A short wave trough was dropping south over the Great Lakes, serving to turn the flow more to the northwest. Water vapor showed very little moisture under the ridge. Most of the moisture was rounding the ridge over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains where the sky cover is located. However East Central CO will be west of the higher dew points and in the warmer air.
1056 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Record warmth continues across Utah and Colorado as high amplitude ridging remains across the region.
Light south to southwest flow prevailed in the lower levels, while generally westerly winds were noted throughout the remainder of the column. This will result in continued gradual warming as the high pressure shifts slowly eastward ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper trough driving this front southward looks to dig into the southeastern part of the country Saturday night, and the cooler air behind the front will follow. That being said, the local area will be on the far fringes of the cooler air mass and likely will not see much of a temperature difference.
919 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
730 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Mixed precipitation is expected through Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region. Initially expect snow for the first couple hours this eve with a transition to rain, or a mix as warm advection modifies the temperature profile on the flank of digging Great Lakes low pressure. Also being monitored is the freezing rain potential, but this appears limited given the dynamic and moisture paucity as well as the warm advection magnitude. The upper low will drift across on Saturday, bringing colder 850 mb temperatures back to the region.
734 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Warm front this evening. Cold front late tonight into Saturday.
High pressure over the region today will give way to a very mild southwest flow on Saturday. The ridge over the area has started to shift east and its axis is now centered over far eastern Utah. Southwesterly flow has developed at 700mb across much of Utah and should strengthen tomorrow as a trough crosses the West Coast.
1156 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Active northern stream with closed low moving out of Gulf of Alaska into western Canada. Strong wave over northern Minnesota and then closed low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough down the east coast. Upper ridge over the western Conus.
712 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Active northern stream with closed low moving out of Gulf of Alaska into western Canada. Strong wave over northern Minnesota and then closed low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough down the east coast. Upper ridge over the western Conus.
1053 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
A cooling trend will start on Saturday as the high exits.
Most locations will clear out by sunrise with the passage of a cold front later tonight. An axis of elevated instability over the Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon has been the breeding ground for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The activity will move south of the Tennessee border by midnight as a surface cold front moves southeast across our region. The potential for cloud cover in that area may reinforce the thermal gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley. The combination of clear skies and light winds should allow temps to fall below freezing in some areas, mainly north and east of kpah. In light of our recent hard freezes, these near-freezing temps are unlikely to have much additional impact on vegetation.
742 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
Little change in the weather pattern is expected this the weekend as an unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to produce record or near record heat across our lower desert areas.
A cold front will be working through the region during the morning on Tuesday. Winds will remain gusty behind the passing cold front out of the northwest with gusts over 25 kts at times. Satellite imagery shows a trough pushing over the west coast, which will put the forecast area under southwesterly flow aloft. Moisture from the Pacific will get tapped into today with the southwesterly flow, so I do expect clouds to increase through today ahead of the trough. Temperatures should reach the lower 70s for a majority of the forecast area today before clouds consume the entire forecast area by early evening.
Upper level heights finally begin to rise tonight and through Tuesday as a broad ridge builds into the Tennessee Valley. Once the warmer air heads eastward, the persistent cloud cover will quickly erode.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected across inland locales this morning prior to sunrise. The latest raw temperature guidance is on the conservative side, therefore blended the latest MAV and MET guidance, which is generally running 2 to 3 degrees warmer across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 430 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will continue to build in across the area through Tuesday, bringing dry weather.
347 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be freezing rain/sleet over central ND, with ice accumulations expected in the James River Valley and surrounding areas. Warm temperatures aloft so once air or surface temperatures cool after dark to freezing, will see a good chance for light freezing rain or sleet mixing with light rain. Most favorable area for ice accumulations will be across the James River Valley, and have issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for this area from this evening through mid morning Tuesday when the precipitation type should be changed over the snow due to evaporational cooling and/or CAA.