Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
QPF values still on the low side for a relative average, but with PW jumping to around 0. By late afternoon and through tonight, the ridge will be shifting east. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across far western locales by late afternoon and shift east along with a cold front. Today still looks to be quite hot, with several areas pushing toward the low/mid 90s.
/issued 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/ A weak cold front is moving across the Midsouth. Temperatures this morning will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s. Latest guidance continues to trend warmer after midweek.
An upper level ridge will shift east across the western states today. This will bring warmer and drier air to the area today. Cumulus clouds will form over the higher terrain during the afternoon. With the warmer airmass moving in and less cloud cover, it will be warmer today with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. the upper ridge of high pressure shifts east into the central plains states. a moist south to southeasterly flow ahead of a surface lee trough.
The NAM also generates light QPF in this area, although we aren't expecting much in the way of precip reaching the ground due to relatively fast cloud/cell motions--ridge winds at Slide Mtn/Peavine are currently from the southeast or south at 20-30 mph. The triple digit heat will take a break from the region for much of the upcoming week, as trough passage across the Pacific Northwest today squashes the ridge axis to near the U.
947 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.
503 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Temperatures will begin trending cooler this week along with dry conditions. Satellite loops show a weak upper low near 40N/128W lifting northeast toward the Pacific Northwest this morning. This incoming trough is weakening and displacing the ridge that extends northward across southern California. Fort Ord profiler shows significant elevating of the marine layer to around 3000 ft as the trough approaches. A break in our heatwave is underway as a result of the approaching trough. Thanks to the passing low pressure system and an influx of some of that cooler marine air, we will see temperatures down several degrees today and lowering further to around climo or even slightly below by Tuesday. Models remain in reasonable agreement through the week and show a slightly deeper trough dropping through the region during the weekend.
Upper level high pressure ridge over the region will bring hot and dry conditions to Montana today. A surface cold front sweeps across the state overnight for showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures expected Tuesday.
Thunderstorms developing this afternoon starting in SE Oregon, mostly in the higher elevations around KBKE and KBNO. The thermal trough will set up near the ID/OR border for hot afternoon temps, especially in the Treasure Valley where highs will be in the upper 90s to around 100F. Meanwhile, moisture ahead of an upper trough near the PacNW coast combined with the afternoon heat will initiate showers and thunderstorms. The upper trough will move through the area tonight, along with a cold front, leading to cooler temperatures and mostly dry weather on Tuesday.
However, drier and modestly warmer air just above 500 mb with a much more discernible inversion on the sounding.
Also trended PoPs down slightly for this afternoon with highest chances focused near the higher terrain regions and eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos. However there is still a weak upper level trough that is expected to move across West Texas later today that could provide enough instability to cause more storms to form this afternoon. If you want rainfall, you better get it in the next 24 hours because after that rain chances greatly diminish as high pressure over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.
High pressure will remain over the waters for much of the week with light winds and seas.
Drier air has worked into SE AL and most of SW GA with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Highs will actually be warmer across our AL/GA counties with more sun as compared to points further south.
1028 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday.
1056 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
402 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Late night sfc analysis shows the area still under the influence of high pressure centered off the sern CONUS coast, while low pressure is noted over both the mid-Mississippi Valley and TX Panhandle. Water vapor imagery shows the sern CONUS ridge axis pushed farther east this morning, extending from the swrn Gulf to the FL peninsula and on into the Atlantic. meanwhile troffing lingers over the wrn 2/3 of the CONUS with a cutoff low spinning across the Rockies this morning. By Saturday, the wrn CONUS low is progged to open up and eject newd toward the nrn Plains, pulling an associated trof axis/sfc front towards the forecast area, along with more enhanced/deeper moisture.
Prevailing thunderstorms expected latter part of forecast period as cold front makes its move south and convection increases in coverage. Northwest of this line, the tornado threat is lower due to cooler and more stable air from earlier storms.
404 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front extending across Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will slide southeast across the state today, sparking a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over far southern PA. Relatively cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
Complex and evolving upper low remains to our west. Overnight temperatures look to get no cooler than the upper 30s in the far western portion of our area. Upper low moving into the area is elongated and unorganized at this time.
142 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Isolated to scattered showers move out of the area this morning with cooler temperatures settling in to start the day. Much cooler and drier weather arrives by midday Friday with some patchy frost possible by Saturday morning.
350 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure anchored offshore will slowly weaken its grip on central NC Friday.
611 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front extending across Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will slide southeast across the state today, sparking a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over far southern PA. Relatively cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
223 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Surface map at 06Z shows high pressure anchored off the East Coast and a weaker pressure gradient over Middle Tennessee than 24 hours ago. A warm front is situated north of the Ohio Valley that is attached to a low near the Texas/Mexico border. Look for POP's to begin increasing on Saturday as the aforementioned low tracks northeastward toward the Great Lakes and drags a cold front toward Middle Tennessee.
With the stalled front projected to shift north again as a warm front, think warmer overall temperatures are necessary, and a guidance consensus served this purpose well. These will interact with a stalled surface front (trapped between the aforementioned upper low and a ridge of high pressure over the eastern U. At this point the best forcing appears to be associated with the cold frontal passage Saturday night.
646 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front sinks southward into the area today, only to retreat back northward on Saturday.
345 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Drier conditions will persist through the morning hours today as weak ridging develops to the west.
602 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region this morning and will move off the Downeast coast this afternoon. High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
Temperatures trend much warmer over the next few days as the east Pacific ridge shifts into the Western United States. Expect basements of the lowest elevation homes in Mason Valley to begin to flood.
356 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017 The primary concern in the short term period is the possibility of near freezing temperatures early Saturday morning that have prompted the issuance of a frost advisory over far eastern Colorado. The large upper level low pressure system over the central Rockies begins to move into the Central High Plains today and lifts into the Central Plains on Saturday. Dryer and warmer conditions are expected by late Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure moves into the region Saturday night.
Tonight a cold front will move south through the area, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. With convection expected to accompany the cold front, the effective front will likely move to the south a little faster than models indicate, thus have likely chances as far south as the I-10 corridor. On Saturday, a cold front will be south of the forecast area, with north winds of 10 to 15 mph.
135 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front sinks southward into the area on Friday, only to retreat back northward on Saturday.
610 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure over Lake Superior will shift east of the lakes by Saturday.
319 AM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure aloft will build in from the Eastern Pacific towards California this weekend. However, with the continued upper level troughs moving through or inside sliders moving across the west, the true May Gray pattern has been interrupted for now. Synoptically, An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pac will slowly nudge eastward towards the California Coast and persist through Sat night. This will slightly weaken the upper ridging over swrn CA for the second half of the weekend.
A portion of an upper level ridge centered off the California coast will bring gradual warming, with near normal temperatures Saturday.
Models were in good agreement in shifting the CO/WY upper low eastward today with the low elongating N into E MT. The amount of mixing will vary across the area, resulting in temperatures from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
330 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 The period will be met with upper level ridge breaking down and heights gradually falling, as an upper level low ejects into the upper Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will eject with the upper low and a trailing cold front will begin to march east.
Blocking upper level high pressure ridge remains over the northern plains today and tonight, finally getting shunted eastward as strong upper low over the intermountain west ejects into the central plains Friday night. Currently, high pressure is situated over northern North Dakota into Manitoba. With more sun across the north, highs will be warmer from Williston to Minot and Bottineau.
Complex and evolving upper low remains to our west. Overnight temperatures look to get no cooler than the upper 30s in the far western portion of our area. Upper low moving into the area is elongated and unorganized at this time. Friday night-Saturday: Upper low transitions across our CWA. While large scale forcing and good moisture should lead to good precip chances through the evening Friday, there is less certainty after midnight due to variances in track/evolution of mid-upper low. ECMWF keeps upper low broadly closed or open and tracks further north which would end precip chances much sooner. GFS is much stronger and closes the low over our CWA.
514 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front extending across Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will slide southeast across the state today, sparking a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over far southern PA. Relatively cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
Isolated to widely sct convection has increased over the last hour or so over McCurtain County OK as well as the Nrn sections of SW AR, where Srly low level winds just away from the LLJ have increased to 30-40kts ahead of a broadly difluent region over much of OK well ahead of the upper closed low spinning over Wrn CO this evening. Given the Srly winds staying up overnight, and the extensive convective debris spreading E, with additional low stratus developing/advecting N late, have bumped up min temps slightly with temps only falling into the lower and mid 70s, with the warmer temps confined to portions of E TX/extreme NW LA.
/Issued 350 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017/ Upper ridge centered off the mid Atlantic Coast should persist through most of the short term. Not much dynamics for convection except maybe a weak short wave or two around the western edge of the ridge. GFS/NAM indicate the upper ridge pushing westward a bit tomorrow.
329 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front moves through the region today. High pressure then builds in for the weekend.
The upper ridge over Wisconsin will weaken, as a subtle lead short wave moves into southern Wisconsin later this morning. Meanwhile a strong upstream trough will begin to exit the Colorado Rockies area tonight, as the upper levels across southern Wisconsin become diffluent, ahead of the approaching jet lifting north on the leading side of the trough. It will be a cool day across southern Wisconsin between the cooler airmass, clouds, and east to northeast winds off Lake Michigan. Medium to High A wet and unsettled period as low pressure is still on track to draw a warm/moist airmass northward into the area.
Cooler, albeit still above average temperature can be expected today given the lack of sustained cold advection/frontal push under zonal flow. Upper ridging is projected to rebuild over the Upper Ohio/Great Lakes Regions by Saturday in response to deep troughing over the Plains. Warmth and moisture will thus quickly return and precip probability will escalate as that trough/associated front system dig eastward this weekend.
Broad area of low pressure will begin to exit the region today, keeping below normal temperatures in place across the lower deserts.
GOES Satellite imagery shows Northeast Montana located between a split trough, with a large storm system well to our south and centered over Colorado, and a weaker system in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Friday night and the first portion of Sat should be largely dry with instability once again building throughout the day on Sat ahead of an approaching cold front and upper trough. While some isld-sct convection is possible Sat during the day, the main line of storms should develop to our west Sat along the cold front and move east into our region Sat night. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s into the the weekend. Saturday night a line of showers/storms associated with a cold front will push east into our region.
Although there are model differences on timing and placement of convection today, a common signal is for thunderstorm activity to consolidate along a slow moving cold front this afternoon through the evening hours.
339 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Warmer, near seasonal temperatures with intermittent shower activity will be present across the Northern Rockies through this weekend.
Deep layer ridging will remain aloft of the local area through Friday night, providing us with warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions, although some isolated sea-breeze or land-breeze storms can't be completely ruled out.
319 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will move across the area today bringing cooler temperatures, with even some frosty conditions possible tonight and again Saturday night in the mountains.
Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front this afternoon across central Oklahoma and spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to exit the area Saturday morning as the cold front exits to the east.
A dry line extends south of the low across western Oklahoma and Texas. Storms will also begin to develop farther to the north across Kansas into northern Missouri this afternoon near the warm front. The upper level low will spread into the Plains Friday afternoon/evening with additional storms developing across Oklahoma and Kansas again.
This deep trough will be the main feature influencing our weather over the next 24 to 48 hours. Temperatures are expected to climb into the middle 80s again and dew points are already in the low 70s resulting in a very unstable airmass. a weak LLJ and the possibility of weak impulses rounding the base of the trough will enhance our chance of severe storms. The highest threat for severe storms will likely be across northwestern portions of the Midsouth in closer proximity to the dynamic support.
CIGS will slowly lift through the early afternoon before drier air helps scour out the low stratus. CIGS will lower once again on Saturday as the next low pressure system lifts into the region with an attendant warm front. Strong cold air advection across the lowest 925 mb well underway early this morning, the process now augmented by an additional marine contribution under increasingly northerly flow.
Similar conditions to yesterday are expected, as deep layer high pressure centered off to the east and upper level troughing to the west continues to influence the Tri-state region.
Believe at this time the higher threat for isolated tornadoes will stay north of our forecast area, closer to the warm front where helicity will be maximized, The actual cold front is still slated to approach the region later Saturday/Saturday night. Again, destabilization during the day and bulk shear close to 40 kts could lead to a organized development, with a few strong to severe storms possible in the prefrontal environment as a stronger short wave rotates east from the base of the upper trof.
346 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front sinks southward into the area on today, only to retreat back northward on Saturday.
An upper level trough over the Rockies will lift into the Plains in the coming days.
404 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures today and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late weekend as moisture builds ahead of an approaching cold front.
630 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will move across the area today bringing cooler temperatures, with even some frosty conditions possible tonight and again Saturday night in the mountains.
High pressure begins to build over the region Friday, before an upper level disturbance brings a renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, especially in eastern WA and the ID panhandle.
209 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures again today. A weak backdoor cold front could drop into part of the area Saturday, but shower and thunderstorm chances will increase more significantly by late weekend as moisture builds ahead of an approaching cold front.
530 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Cold front will push across the area today, scattered rain showers are expected this morning. Much cooler and drier weather arrives by midday with some patchy frost possible overnight.
Expect these light showers to affect the southwest counties late this afternoon and into the evening as the main upper low moves very little. Models continue to suggest mainly the southern half of SD being affected by precipitation through the day Friday, as the main upper low is still over CO by Friday afternoon.
340 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region this morning and will move off the Downeast coast this afternoon. High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
This evening, the highest chances for pcpn are expected to be found over the central CO mtns, Teller county, Pikes Peak, and the southwest mtns. The NAM is a bit farther south with the upper low center Fri morning than the GFS. One other worry is the potential for low temps tonight around freezing. Models place a secondary piece of the upper low over the southeast corner of the state Friday evening, with snow for the higher elevations and rain for the lower expected to continue through the evening. As the low pulls off to the e-ne away from Colorado overnight, pcpn chances are forecast to diminish quickly after midnight with unsettled nw flow aloft then settling in.
Much quieter weather the next couple days as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
255 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 A closed upper level low over Colorado had a vort max in the base of its circulation moving east across eastern Arizona. A cold front was pushing south across the east central and southeast Texas Panhandle. This cold front should move southeast of the CWA by sunrise. Therefore, will keep the highest pops across this region. Will also keep some lower pops elsewhere given the increase in upper level diffluence and the close proximity of the cold front. The panhandles will be under a northwest flow aloft through the rest of the forecast as a ridge builds across the western U. and a trough gets carved out across the eastern U.
Bulk shear and low level helicity north of the warm front appear sufficient for a few strong updrafts, with some strong downburst winds possible as the line advances to the ENE after sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows will remain in the low to mid 60s south of the front, with low 50s from Galesburg to Lacon and mid-upper 50s in between. Most of the forecast area only seeing scattered clouds at the moment, with a cold front edging into the northwest part of the CWA. The main threat of rain will be spreading in from the southwest later in the night, as the large upper low over Utah and Colorado digs southward and sends energy northeast out of the Texas panhandle. 5 inches, which will persist until the low lifts northwest of Illinois Saturday evening.
402 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Upper level ridge axis was over the Red River Valley and will slowly shift northeast. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over AZ. Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and Sun.
153 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will move south across the area late this evening into tonight. High pressure will then shift east across the region Friday with much cooler temperatures and dry weather.
145 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will slide southeast across the state tonight and early Friday. Relatively cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
409 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front sinks southward into the area today, only to retreat back northward on Saturday.
232 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and passes through the area Friday afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern this morning as training takes place fueled by the low level jet perpendicular to the dryline. By tonight the associated cold front will move south through the forecast area. More thunderstorms are possible this weekend especially from the southeast Permian Basin south and west to the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend Region.
355 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Strong cold air advection across the lowest 925 mb well underway early this morning, the process now augmented by an additional marine contribution under increasingly northerly flow.
325 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure over Lake Superior will shift east of the lakes by Saturday.
657 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front sinks southward into the area today, only to retreat back northward on Saturday.
With the stalled front projected to shift north again as a warm front, think warmer overall temperatures are necessary, and a guidance consensus served this purpose well. An upper low over the intermountain west will move northeast through nebraska and into the Great Lakes region through the short term. These will interact with a stalled surface front (trapped between the aforementioned upper low and a ridge of high pressure over the eastern U. At this point the best forcing appears to be associated with the cold frontal passage Saturday night.