Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
224 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 The latest water vapor images and RAP model analyses place upper- level high pressure across the Four Corners region, with an upper trough over the West Coast and resultant west-southwest flow across the CWA. The bulk of the activity should be east of the CWA by 06z as the low-level jet shifts east. However, some showers may linger given the unstable upper flow, along with a cold front that will be moving through the CWA after 06z.
One more hot day is on tap for the central High Plains region Thursday with highs in the 95-100 degree range before the persistent upper ridge that has been in place over the western U. A combination of short wave troughs topping the ridge as they move east across the Intermountain and Rocky Mountain regions before moving over the Plains states along with the remnants of Hurricane Laura moving into the Gulf Coast states on Thursday will bring a weak northwesterly flow to the central high Plains region by Friday night. That northwest flow aloft will bring a short wave trough across the region along with a cold front that pushes south across the forecast area.
The upper level pattern across the lower 48 shows upper ridges to our west and east, and of course hurricane Laura now moving inland across SW LA. Seems reasonable as we lose the influence of being on the west side of the cyclone and daytime heating maybe hits some convective temps. Looking for a warmer day on Friday, and when combined with the expected dewpoints, heat indices may get us into heat advisory criteria for at least part of the cwa. Wont carry any pop on Friday afternoon as we should start to dry out once again as the upper ridge starts to ease in from the west.
ace trough deepens across south central South Dakota. With 850 hpa temperatures near 22C, surface temperatures should be able to climb into the low to mid 90s.
644 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 At 08Z, an upper trough extended off the coast of central CA north through the Pacific Northwest. A weak frontal boundary extended from near Bridgeport through Thedford and O'Neill. Skies had become clear across most of western Nebraska with temperatures from the low 60s to low 70s. As a disturbance moves into the western Dakotas, a cold front will move through northeast Wyoming into the western Black Hills. A cold front will push southeastward through the western half of the forecast area by late tonight. Friday, the cold front will clear eastern counties by late morning. A northerly breeze 15 to 25 mph across the area and highs will be at least 10 degrees cooler in the lower to mid 80s, with upper 80s far southwest.
1015 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week.
607 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A 500 mb trough axis will remain draped from southwest to northeast this morning from northeastern Oklahoma into central Missouri. Isolated to widely scattered convection appears possible this morning along and north of the I-44 corridor as short term models indicate little capping for elevated parcels beneath that 500 mb trough axis.
Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer this afternoon with mid 90s to around 100 degrees. The only other notable change will be warmer overnight lows with some additional low level moisture moving into the area from the east, so we can expect lows in the low to mid 70s tonight.
Very Dangerous Cat 4 Hurricane Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, around 1 am CDT with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, which is near the high end of category 4 status.
510 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 The latest water vapor images and RAP model analyses place upper- level high pressure across the Four Corners region, with an upper trough over the West Coast and resultant west-southwest flow across the CWA. The bulk of the activity should be east of the CWA by 06z as the low-level jet shifts east. However, some showers may linger given the unstable upper flow, along with a cold front that will be moving through the CWA after 06z.
724 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Aviation - Risk for severe weather and flooding into Friday night - Considerable cool down this weekend - Risk for severe weather and flooding into Friday night For much of today the region will be under speed divergence as the low level jet pulls off to the east. For Friday into Friday night the low level baroclinic zone remains over the CWA as an upper wave drops in from the northwest. - Considerable cool down this weekend Northerly winds behind the departing storm advect a cooler airmass down into the CWA for this weekend.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s, possibly touching 80.
342 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 High pressure over Arizona will continue the very hot weather for the lower deserts today.
/Issued 347 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020/ Hot and muggy conditions will characterize the forecast today as the state remains under the influence of the upper ridge. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, primarily in the western and northern periphery of the forecast area where ridging is slightly weaker. Given the very humid conditions and high temperatures largely in the lower 90s, heat index values will range from the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees. By tomorrow morning, the ridge will begin to retreat, and the flow will become southwesterly across the forecast area. The higher severe threat appears to remain to our west and northwest during the day Friday where more appreciable shear associated with Laura will increase.
414 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 An upper level high will be over the srn Rockies with mainly westerly flow aloft over the area. Overall moisture, across the higher terrain, will decrease today so expect shower and tstm activity will be less than Wed. Meanwhile, late tonight a cold front will move across the plains.
Thunderstorms continue to develop south of the frontal zone, mainly in southern Montana this morning, but will be spreading north and east today as the trof pushes through the region. Cold air advection behind the front/trof not very strong, which will limit the post front wind increase, but drying airmass will keep fire weather concerns at critical levels over the western zones. Canadian high pressure follows the front for cooler and mild conditions on Friday.
728 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week.
Hot again today, with showers already moving onshore this morning, primarily south of the Cape, as the Atlantic ridge axis begins to slide southward through the area into tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms still expected today, beginning across coastal areas, before spreading into the interior, thanks to easterly flow from the ridge. Easterly flow continuing, as the Atlantic ridge axis begins to slide southward through the area into tonight. Easterly flow continuing today, as the Atlantic Ridge axis slides southward through the area into tonight.
620 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 High pressure over the Northland this morning will keep conditions quiet in the wake of last nightâs cool front. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler with highs a few degrees cooler. Dewpoints will be lower, in the low 50s to low 60s, which will make conditions less muggy. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in Wyoming and western Nebraska. Showers and storms will continue along and ahead of the front with drier and cooler air behind the boundary. A few showers may linger over far northeast Minnesota Friday evening as the cold front pushes out of the region.
650 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Hot and humid this afternoon with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Cooler weather will return this weekend. Focus tonight expected to shift up into srn WI ewd through cntrl MI co-aligned with more substantial theta-e ridging invof frontal boundary. Better combined low level focus/moisture flux looks to develop east through OH Fri aftn yet with substantial low level theta-e ridge in place locally along with some intrusion of stronger flow aloft should support sct aftn storms. Otherwise late arriving cold front and storms expected overnight Friday followed by post frontal drying/clearing/cooling Sat and whittled back Sat am shower chances far se. Sfc ridging follows Sun with pleasant cool/dry wx ahead of weak/washing incoming cold front late Mon.
415 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 High pressure over the Northland this morning will keep conditions quiet in the wake of last nightâs cool front. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler with highs a few degrees cooler. Dewpoints will be lower, in the low 50s to low 60s, which will make conditions less muggy. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in Wyoming and western Nebraska. Showers and storms will continue along and ahead of the front with drier and cooler air behind the boundary. A few showers may linger over far northeast Minnesota Friday evening as the cold front pushes out of the region.
1030 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Currently - A lower level ridge extending westward into the extreme southeastern United States and Florida is producing gentle southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Some warming through the lower levels have put a fairly broad zone of weak inhibition between 900 and 700 mb. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will back southeastward, aligning over Florida this afternoon and tonight. The channel of drier and warmer air will remain across our area through the afternoon resulting in a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms at best. A ridge across the extreme southeastern United States will retreat and sag southwards.
High pressure continues to dominate the forecast today with a lee side low adding to the heat. This will make highs today warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 90s with 104 in the Canyon.
Hot and breezy will persist for the short term as it has all week under the influence of dry northwest flow aloft and leeside troughing across eastern Colorado. Winds will diminish after sunset due to radiational cooling as the aforementioned leeside trough begins to fill ahead of the next disturbance making its way across the Rockies out of the Pacific northwest.
Tomorrow the upper high to our west will start migrating eastward becoming situated overhead. An upper-level high remains over the southwestern CONUS with Hurricane Laura over the Ark-La-Tex and a weak upper low west of Laura. As these features move to the northeast and east respectively, the upper high to the west will expand east and flatten, bringing westerly winds to the forecast area for the weekend. As the high expands east, 1000 mb - 500 mb thickness will increase, bringing another round of high temperatures ranging from 100 - 108 degrees F this weekend.
High pressure remains situated over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico today and will wobble around this region through the remainder of the week. Sufficient moisture remains in place underneath the high to promote daily showers and thunderstorms.
An upper level high will be over the srn Rockies with mainly westerly flow aloft over the area. Overall moisture, across the higher terrain, will decrease today so expect shower and tstm activity will be less than Wed. Meanwhile, late tonight a cold front will move across the plains.
/Issued 729 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020/ Hot and muggy conditions will characterize the forecast today as the state remains under the influence of the upper ridge. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, primarily in the western and northern periphery of the forecast area where ridging is slightly weaker. Given the very humid conditions and high temperatures largely in the lower 90s, heat index values will range from the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees. By tomorrow morning, the ridge will begin to retreat, and the flow will become southwesterly across the forecast area. The higher severe threat appears to remain to our west and northwest during the day Friday where more appreciable shear associated with Laura will increase.
For tonight, will likely an uptick in thunderstorm development as moisture transport increases ahead of an approaching mid-level trough from the Northern Plains. Looks like the bulk of this activity will again be east of the Mississippi before an MCS tied to the main mid-level trough/PV tracks into the area toward morning. Much more pleasant temperatures/humidity levels heading into the weekend as Canadian high pressure pays a visit.
Temperatures are much cooler where these storms have occurred/behind the outflow, with Clinton and Sedalia both at 73 degrees as of 230 PM. Warm again tomorrow with high temperatures in the low 90s for most locations. A cold front will move through the region from northwest to southeast tomorrow late afternoon through evening.
Deterministic models maintain a weak upper trough/weakness in the upper height field, over the CWA/MSA tonight/Friday along with above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA. Friday night, drier conditions predicted owing to the building upper ridge from the west. The high rip current risk remains late this afternoon owing in part to long period swells.
A cold front will pass through Friday afternoon/evening, and this may help promote a few scattered thunderstorms mainly across the Arrowhead as it passes through. This will cause winds to become northwesterly and bring in some cooler temperatures with lows in the lower 50s Friday night.
1026 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 High pressure over the Northland this morning will keep conditions quiet in the wake of last nightâs cool front. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler with highs a few degrees cooler. Dewpoints will be lower, in the low 50s to low 60s, which will make conditions less muggy. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in Wyoming and western Nebraska. Showers and storms will continue along and ahead of the front with drier and cooler air behind the boundary. A few showers may linger over far northeast Minnesota Friday evening as the cold front pushes out of the region.
Friday will be much hotter for us, as much drier and warmer airmass travel across the southern plains. The upper level ridge will build and become our main weather influence through the weekend.
152 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 At 08Z, an upper trough extended off the coast of central CA north through the Pacific Northwest. A weak frontal boundary extended from near Bridgeport through Thedford and O'Neill. Skies had become clear across most of western Nebraska with temperatures from the low 60s to low 70s. As a disturbance moves into the western Dakotas, a cold front will move through northeast Wyoming into the western Black Hills. A cold front will push southeastward through the western half of the forecast area by late tonight. Friday, the cold front will clear eastern counties by late morning. A northerly breeze 15 to 25 mph across the area and highs will be at least 10 degrees cooler in the lower to mid 80s, with upper 80s far southwest.
Lifeguards report that surf has subsided to 3-5 feet this morning, so the High Surf Advisory was allowed to expire on time at 11 AM CDT. Lifeguards still report frequent rip currents occurring, and the HIGH risk of rip currents will continue through Friday.
Gusty winds will be possible overnight across the Nebraska Panhandle as slightly cooler temperatures will move in behind the front. Models/ensemble guidance is in general agreement with suppression of the upper ridge into the southern CONUS, with an active progressive zonal flow aloft across the northern CONUS.
1254 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Aviation - Risk for severe weather and flooding into Friday night - Considerable cool down this weekend - Risk for severe weather and flooding into Friday night For much of today the region will be under speed divergence as the low level jet pulls off to the east. For Friday into Friday night the low level baroclinic zone remains over the CWA as an upper wave drops in from the northwest. - Considerable cool down this weekend Northerly winds behind the departing storm advect a cooler airmass down into the CWA for this weekend.
1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 High pressure over the Northland this morning will keep conditions quiet in the wake of last nightâs cool front. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler with highs a few degrees cooler. Dewpoints will be lower, in the low 50s to low 60s, which will make conditions less muggy. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in Wyoming and western Nebraska. Showers and storms will continue along and ahead of the front with drier and cooler air behind the boundary. A few showers may linger over far northeast Minnesota Friday evening as the cold front pushes out of the region.
1117 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 The latest water vapor images and RAP model analyses place upper- level high pressure across the Four Corners region, with an upper trough over the West Coast and resultant west-southwest flow across the CWA. The bulk of the activity should be east of the CWA by 06z as the low-level jet shifts east. However, some showers may linger given the unstable upper flow, along with a cold front that will be moving through the CWA after 06z.
The winds in the lowest several km are still unidirectional.
More robust thunderstorm development is expected with peak heating out on the high plains of western North Dakota, where CAPE values are getting up above 1500 J/kg in a narrow band. As a trough of low pressure moves in from the Northern Rockies, the CAMs light up with convecation along the trough/cold front. Precip will quickly move off to the east Friday, as high pressure builds in behind the front.
An upper ridge axis will pass over the region later this afternoon, ushering in dry air that will hinder thunderstorm activity this evening. Conditions are expected to remain dry ahead of the trough moving in this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the best chance after 21z over the west central Idaho and Boise Mountains, and over the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley.
The low level flow has returned to southerly to southeasterly and the subtropical ridge is building back over the region.
Tonight and Friday A weak cold front from roughly Stevens Point to Manitowoc continued to produce scattered thunderstorms at 19z. It should continue to do so through early evening, and then possible become more active as the low level warm advection increases and the right entrance region of a jet moves through.
The flow pattern remains east-southeast around 10 kts as the mid/upper level high is centered near the NM/AZ border. This flow should be enough to push isolated thunderstorms that form off the higher terrain towards the west-northwest with the aid of new development off of outflows. Latest model runs shift the mid/upper level high to the east across NM on Friday placing southeast Arizona in a light southerly flow. Still enough moisture around as PWAT values average around or just above 1 inch to result in isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain.
137 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Upper ridge was centered near the 4 Corners region this morning as hurricane Laura moved up through LA. As the remains move NE Friday look for the ridge to expand across the region.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the afternoon in a generally SSW-to-NNE fashion with the highest probability of sustained winds >39 mph and gusts up to 60 mph over southern and now southeastern Arkansas.
1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A 500 mb trough axis will remain draped from southwest to northeast this morning from northeastern Oklahoma into central Missouri. Isolated to widely scattered convection appears possible this morning along and north of the I-44 corridor as short term models indicate little capping for elevated parcels beneath that 500 mb trough axis.
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Heat and humidity will continue through tomorrow, before a cold front pushes south through Illinois Friday night. A few storms could become severe Friday night ahead of the cold front. One more day of high heat is on tap for Friday, with highs in the low 90s north and mid to upper 80s south. A cold front will progress south through our CWA Friday night, as the remnant low pressure center from Laura pass across the tip of southern Illinois. SPC has continued with the Slight Risk north of I-72 and Marginal Risk south of there for the cold frontal passage. A noticeable change in air mass is on tap behind that Friday night cold front.
By Friday afternoon, a cold front will be moving southward across Nebraska in association with a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest. Friday evening and overnight, the aforementioned cold front will move southward through the area. Despite weak convergence along the front and an unstable airmass, neutral to slightly positive height tendencies will keep the lift necessary for thunderstorm development on the low side during the evening.
The latter would have the higher potential to produce widespread severe weather (particularly damaging winds) given the potential for a bowing MCS/QLCS to race in from the Dakotas late tonight. Highs in central Minnesota will likely struggle to warm out of the lower 70s, and it could feel a bit cool with brisk northwest winds. The weekend starts off on a dry note as surface/mid-level ridging builds in. Mild temperatures will persist, with highs in the low/mid 70s under sunny skies. Models have exhibited good consistency regarding the trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies to start the upcoming week, so the Numerical Blend population of 70-80 POPS was not a surprise.
Arcing high pressure extending from Bermuda to the central states then toward Baja is undergoing bifurcation with the weakness associated with T. The combination of the expanding upper-level ridge and subsidence along the western periphery of Major Hurricane Laura will enhance low-level vertical mixing beneath the subsidence layer aloft. Storms should initiate off the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and gradually drift eastward, with the best chances for measurable precipitation confined to the northwestern South Plains and the western areas of the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. By mid-week, a longwave trough will pivot across the central CONUS with a 500 mb vorticity lobe rotating across the Intermountain West.
The upper ridge remains the focus, for the short term forecast. General model consensus places the center of this upper ridge somewhere over southern New Mexico, by Friday afternoon. Correspondingly, the 850mb thermal ridge, to our west, will expend farther east, as compared to today, over West Central Texas, Friday afternoon.
1246 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Atlantic high pressure will build in from the east, providing warm and humid conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week.
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Hot and humid this afternoon with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Cooler weather will return this weekend. Focus tonight expected to shift up into srn WI ewd through cntrl MI co-aligned with more substantial theta-e ridging invof frontal boundary. Better combined low level focus/moisture flux looks to develop east through OH Fri aftn yet with substantial low level theta-e ridge in place locally along with some intrusion of stronger flow aloft should support sct aftn storms. Otherwise late arriving cold front and storms expected overnight Friday followed by post frontal drying/clearing/cooling Sat and whittled back Sat am shower chances far se. Sfc ridging follows Sun with pleasant cool/dry wx ahead of weak/washing incoming cold front late Mon. Very similar story for later tonight/early Friday as cold front across central Michigan slowly inches south.
With two upper ridges on either side of the area with residual moisture left behind.
Tonight a cold front is going to move slowly over South Dakota before stalling out in southeast South Dakota. A weak mid-upper level wave is going to follow a stronger mid- upper level wave and eventually help move the cold front through the forecast area tomorrow.