Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This should continue to bring in warmer and more moist air through the overnight hours.
/Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/ This afternoon some passing high clouds were moving through with high pressure providing quiet weather.
548 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Today is very similar, weather-wise, to yesterday with the only real difference being the upper level trough to our west being closer. The best returns are well to our west where the trough and weak front remain. Shortly after sunset, some showers should pick up over the Flat Tops and central mountains, maybe a few down in San Juans, but amounts will be on the low side. At the highest elevations, maybe a dusting of snow upwards to an inch. Tomorrow, the slow moving trough will be over the forecast area and will be the focus of isolated to scattered showers. High temperatures on Monday will be a bit cooler thanks to northerly wind flow ushering in cooler air.
Models show an area of low pressure over the Central Plains at 12z Monday.
This surface boundary will continue to slowly lift to the Northeast as a warm front rain chances will be through Monday with any rain chances generally along and to the Northwest of Interstate 30.
800 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast will lift out Monday as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Radar shows a few stubborn sprinkles or flurries over the lower Susq, but the trend continues to be for the activity to diminish in coverage.
The freezing level was at 14,300 feet, with the -20C level near 23,300 feet.
and the thermal ridge temps have risen into the upper 80s. An upper low/associated trof will move into the Intermountain West Monday. However with the cloud deck and cooler H85 temps instability should be reduced.
Showers associated with an upper trough were weakening and decreasing in coverage. The trough will move into eastern Idaho after midnight, ending the showers, followed by a drier northwest flow aloft on Monday.
517 PM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Water vapor shows large trof over the western CONUS with center of upper level circulation over ID, and subtle baroclinic leaf over WY. At the surface, low center continues to deepen over eastern CO with inverted trof extending newd through western NEB and central SD. Mix of rain and snow onto the plains east of the Black Hills with less snow accumulation and less impact on travel for this storm, although across central SD there could be a bit of freezing rain late tonight and early Monday.
Low pressure continues to push east across the area today, but expect continued showers this afternoon in the resulting onshore flow. Another front will move into the forecast area later tonight, followed by a series of disturbances riding over an upper ridge in the Gulf of Alaska.
Breezy and Cooler with Rough Surf Conditions. Backdoor cold front bringing much cooler and windy conditions is now pushing sw across ne Fl this evening. IFR conditions will persist tonight through Monday as low clouds and showers behind backdoor cold front linger over the area. Surge of ne winds and building seas have spread south across the waters this afternoon and evening in wake of backdoor cold front. Advisory conditions will continue into midweek as strong high pressure builds south and swells persist.
WAA is overrunning our CWA aloft with southerly flow ahead of a trough passing through southern Canada (currently entering western Manitoba). A negatively tilted 850 MB/700 MB trough is shown to briefly close of st it moves towards the southeastern part of our CWA. This raises the possibility of freezing drizzle or freezing rain in the 09-14Z period before a full transition to snow takes place. Lingering pcpn Mon eve will come to an end over northwest MN, perhaps as a mix of snow and freezing RA/DZ.
The highest rain chances, and greatest chance for local downpours, should be in Volusia and Brevard counties, especially along the coast. The Volusia coast should struggle to reach the lower 70s. The front/clouds should hold off long enough across the south for highs to get into the lower 80s. VFR through late evening, then IFR/MVFR CIGs develop after 06Z as cold front crosses the terminals from the N/NE. Strong high pressure building along the mid Atlantic coast behind the boundary will steadily tighten the gradient on Monday.
Current temps are in the low to mid 70s, and dew points are in the low to mid 60s. A weak pressure gradient will continue across the island chain overnight as the ridge axis gradually lifts northeast. With a light wind profile and cloudless skies in place, a measure of radiational cooling may occur in certain cooler spots (ie, Big Pine Key) tonight. However, dew points in the low to mid 60s, and higher nearshore SSTs, will keep temps in check from falling too far below the 70 degree mark. A ridge of high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula will retreat eastward tonight.
/issued 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Strong high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico interacting with lower pressure across the Plains will support moderate to strong southeast winds through the short term. Otherwise, a mid level ridge parked over the Gulf will keep subsident capping conditions in place, producing warm and dry weather under a mix of clouds and sun across deep south Texas. Due to a backing mid level pattern as the ridge reorients over the Gulf, increasingly southwest flow aloft may provide nocturnal destabilization over the Sierra Madre Oriental range.
The majority of the precip fell as rain or drizzle, however a few hours of surface temperatures at or below freezing allowed for a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle in northeast NE, in addition to a few snowflakes mixing in. Continued weak lift will create the potential for patchy rain/drizzle throughout the evening, however temperatures should remain above freezing. Tonight, a large upper level trough will dig into the western CONUS. Slightly cooler air will filter into the northwestern 2/3 of the CWA, while counties to the southeast remain in the warm sector. Expect highs to range from the low 40s northwest to the mid 50s in southeast NE on Monday. Lows Monday night will dip into the lower 30s north and mid to upper 30s near the KS and MO borders.
With much warmer temps tomorrow through tomorrow night and southerly winds, lots of melting will take place, adding lots of moisture into the lower levels. High pressure ridge is extending back into the Midwest from Eastern Canada this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies resulting going into the overnight. The upper ridge over the Midwest shifts slightly to the east putting the region into a more southwesterly flow regime, with a series of short waves rotating around the deep trough over the southwestern CONUS.
This may keep lows near the southern foothills warmer than what we already have in there, but will keep what is forecasted just in case they are thinner. Also did minor adjustments to high temperatures tomorrow, mainly in the high country after we warmed up a degree or two over today's forecasted highs. This is mainly over the east slopes in places like Fairplay and Georgetown that are prone to winds descending from the higher mountains.
Slightly lower heights on the eastern periphery of the ridge (over SETX) may help to limit temperatures to 93-96 inland. Expect this to be the case the next couple of days with only isolated brief showers possible as Southeast Texas is on the eastern edge of a mid/upper level ridge centered over the desert SW. Expect to continue to see max temps in the upper 80s along the coast and in the low to mid 90s inland through the weekend.
MVFR cigs will return by morning and will largely us the timing from this morning as a start and stop point on the low clouds. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s. (Friday night through Thursday) An upper level ridge will centered across northern Mexico or the Southwest U.
While radar is beginning to show weak echoes in the Pierre area, the lower levels of the atmosphere is far too dry for pcpn. Meanwhile, partly to mostly sunny skies have allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s across the area. The surface and upper low to the north of us in Canada will shift to the east tonight and Friday, keeping the area under west-northwest flow aloft. The sfc features are At this point, the highest precipitation amounts will likely concentrate over eastern SD and west central MN.
Today's weather pattern involved upper and lower level troughs acting upon a rather unstable airmass. On Friday, the drier airmass will couple with some upper ridging and will reduce pops to only 20 percent.
High pressure continues to build gradually over the Srn US, while a progressive zonal pattern over the Central US keeps the sfc pressure gradient tight enough for a few afternoon/early evening wind gusts to around 20 knots. The mid-level subtropical ridge, currently centered over Chihuahua state, will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the short-term.
Lingering light rains will diminish shortly and the high debris cloudiness will gradually thin overnight. Mid/upper level trough will help to nudge the low level ridge axis a little southward on Fri. PoPs continue on the high side Sat with values just a tad lower versus Friday. Ridge axis across south FL will continue a south to southwest wind flow 10 knots or less overnight and Friday morning, turning onshore in a SE seabreeze of 10-15 knots near the coast.
Weak high pressure has built over the Mid South this evening and will keep dry conditions in place overnight. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are cooler in the 70s across north Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River due to shower and thunderstorms while temperatures have recovered back into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
641 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 For the remainder of the afternoon, temperatures will once again rise into the lower 90s across the area as steady warm advection continues. Dew point values have risen into the lower to mid 70s, making for heat indices near the 100 degree mark for areas across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Fortunately, this transpired only recently as subsidence in the wake of early morning convection helped to temporarily scour out at least some of the low-level moisture content this morning. The warm sector will remain over the region as high temperatures approach the low 90s.
/issued 830 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/ Weak high pressure has built over the Mid South this evening and will keep dry conditions in place overnight. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are cooler in the 70s across north Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River due to shower and thunderstorms while temperatures have recovered back into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
820 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight with a trough of low pressure.
551 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 This morning's H500 hand analysis is showing a much more progressive/zonal pattern across the lower 48 as the jet stream has settled across the northern states. A shift in some of the high latitude energy will allow the jet stream to dip into the Great Plains and Great Lakes region this weekend.
The highest potential for severe storms appears to be with a large line of storms currently in southern Kansas which will move into north central and northeastern Oklahoma between 9 pm and midnight. There may be a few storms Friday in the still-unstable atmosphere, but as the upper-level ridge over the southwestern United States begins to expand into the southern Plains, that should provide more and more inhibition.
Temperatures will spike upward tomorrow as an upper level ridge rapidly strengthens over the southwest. Dry northerly flow at the surface continues as high pressure extends into the Pacific Northwest coast. The big warmup is still on track as the upper level ridge over northern Mexico is starting to expand into Arizona and New Mexico.
Drier air filtering in behind a weak cold front looks to limit any shower activity at airports on Friday.
Slightly lower heights on the eastern periphery of the ridge (over SETX) may help to limit temperatures to 93-96 inland.
521 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Upper low continues to drift across southern Canada north of Minnesota with near zonal flow across the northern plains.
/EC/ Through tomorrow: Atmospheric forcing and low level wind shear vectors today have worked in concert to keep the bulk of troubling thunderstorm activity to the north and east of our forecast area, but a remnant outflow boundary starting off all the convection this morning is still progressing south to the Highway 82 corridor at present and could still trigger at least isolated severe thunderstorms for all but far southwestern zones through the evening hours. Tomorrow we will still be dealing with the same general synoptic situation on the east (dirty) side of a sprawling high pressure ridge aloft centered over northern Old Mexico. However, guidance consensus is improving that any convective clusters spawning tonight way upstream of the Lower MS Valley will not get as close to the region as was the case last night.
AS OF 1830Z THE PESKY UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO NORTHEASTERN NE.
Weak ridge across the area will maintain placement and continue to dry out the area overnight. Expect that most places will remain dry with warm temperatures through friday with a subtle upper level ridge in place.
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight with a trough of low pressure.
610 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Cold front continues to push south into the Northern Plains. The forecast concerns for the short term include the diminishing fog across the southeast, a brief period of gusty winds with a cold frontal passage this evening, and the cooler temperatures Wednesday. The fog area will be permanently (for the short term) swept away by a leading trough that will bring northwest mixing winds this afternoon. This will be followed by a more potent cold frontal passage this evening, bringing colder temperatures and some gusty northwest winds, and will, for the most part be a dry frontal passage with just some slight chances for light snow north central this evening. On Wednesday night a moderate to strong pressure gradient sets up between high pressure in Ontario and deepening low pressure in southwest Alberta.
439 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof moving out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with associated surface trof pushing into the eastern Dakotas. Cooler conditions then expected on Wednesday.
1020 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. Lowering inversion heights finally eroding the low cloud deck which plagued central PA all day. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri.
901 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
649 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri.
But the northern fringe may see some cooler roads. Visibilities are coming up and the low clouds are clearing out as well. Will be watching areas east of the trough to see if dense fog is an issue. Cold front south of this system moving thru ern ND at mid aftn and will move thru the RRV 23z-01z period and then eastern fcst area toward 06z. Rest of the area eastward has the low clouds but vsbys in fog improved greatly during the late morning. This will help ease winds as a surface ridging sliding across the region overnight however looks to lag behind the bulk of the colder, drier polar air mass leaving some question in cloud cover.
The air mass remains seasonably cool and with skies becoming partly- mostly cloudy, limited insolation will make it feel even cooler. The expected cloud cover Wednesday night will trap some of the terrestrial radiation, leading to slightly warmer overnight temperatures.
947 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure centered over the nern CONUS has allowed a weak serly low-level flow to develop over mainly the wrn portions of the forecast area, leading to slightly warmer temps than inherited, along with higher dewpoints. Skies were mostly sunny this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 70s. quiet zonal flow was across the middle of the country with deeper troughing across the eastern Unites States and shallow troughing across the western United States.
922 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather into Wednesday afternoon.
604 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Primary aviation concern for the next 24 hours is a wind shift associated with a cold front that will move north to south across the area overnight and the strengthening/gusty winds behind the front. A brief cold front will pass late tonight, perhaps with a small window for low clouds mainly before daybreak over the Rolling Plains, but much drier and breezier afterwards.
555 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Ahead of upper level trough that moves through the CWA later this evening there remains a slight chance of precip in the western third of the CWA. As this trough approaches, large scale ascent increases accompanied by a strengthening LLJ. There are expected to be gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage late Wed.
/BB/ Tonight through Wednesday: Slight northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region tonight, and sharpen a bit by tomorrow, courtesy of slight amplification of UA ridging across western CONUS. Will therefore see slightly warm temps across the western zones where cloud cover will commence to invade /middle to upper 40s/ versus slightly cooler conditions across the eastern zones before cloud cover moves in /lower 40s/. This increase in cloud cover is courtesy of an UA low translating eastward from the Northern Plains to across the Great Lakes Region by tomorrow aftn, and concurrently its trailing cold frontal boundary nearing southeast AR by the end of the short term period.
Southwest flow aloft ahead of a large low pressure system off the BC/PacNW coasts will tap into subtropical moisture off the California coast.
844 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017 Upper trof crossing the forecast area this evening with some very light rain showers moving across southern SD. Cold front has pushed through the area and gusty winds behind it have subsided for most of the area and will within the next couple of hours across south central SD. Wednesday Through Tuesday Cooler conditions then expected on Wednesday.
542 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri.
723 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through Wednesday.
939 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 A southerly flow of air will develop on Wednesday bringing warmer air and at least partial sunshine.
612 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 Clear and calm conditions area expected tonight as high pressure will extend across the Southern Appalachian region.
534 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather into Wednesday afternoon.
Light southwest winds will shift from the northeast Wednesday as a weak cold front moves through the area. Otherwise, WV imagery shows an upper ridge in place over Baja del Sur, leaving the area under dry, NW flow aloft. Unfortunately, a cold front moving thru the Central Plains will move thru the region Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 11Z, courtesy of a fast-moving trough dropping out of Canada into the Great Lakes area. Thu night, an upper trough will make landfall in the PacNW, and quickly move to the central CONUS by 12Z Sat.
545 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Messy forecast for this evening, but luckily temperatures are all above freezing so any precipitation should remain liquid. Approaching mid level trough continues to hold area in warm air advection regime, with hints of a warm front laid up across northeast Iowa as of 19z. Quiet weather settles in for a bit mid week, with ridge passage Wednesday night.
/10/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Wednesday: Slight northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region tonight, and sharpen a bit by tomorrow, courtesy of slight amplification of UA ridging across western CONUS. Will therefore see slightly warm temps across the western zones where cloud cover will commence to invade /middle to upper 40s/ versus slightly cooler conditions across the eastern zones before cloud cover moves in /lower 40s/. This increase in cloud cover is courtesy of an UA low translating eastward from the Northern Plains to across the Great Lakes Region by tomorrow aftn, and concurrently its trailing cold frontal boundary nearing southeast AR by the end of the short term period.
850 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure will be North of the region Tonight with stratus moving in from the Atlantic. Lows will vary greatly Tonight with readings dipping into the lower 40s over SE GA and interior NE FL, while coastal NE FL readings in the middle to upper 50s are anticipated.
IFR cigs developing later tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Aviation conditions improve to VFR along the coast and Lower Valley by mid morning Wednesday while it may take a few hours longer for the mid Valley (KMFE)to break out of the lower clouds. SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will remain in place over the U.
Visibilities are coming up and the low clouds are clearing out as well. Will be watching areas east of the trough to see if dense fog is an issue. Cold front south of this system moving thru ern ND at mid aftn and will move thru the RRV 23z-01z period and then eastern fcst area toward 06z. Rest of the area eastward has the low clouds but vsbys in fog improved greatly during the late morning. This will help ease winds as a surface ridging sliding across the region overnight however looks to lag behind the bulk of the colder, drier polar air mass leaving some question in cloud cover.
647 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through Wednesday.
A cold front continues to push southward into North Central MT this evening. However, it should not go to much further south, possibly as far south as the Highway 200 corridor and as far west as Highway 89. Otherwise other than a passing shower over the northern Rockies and patchy freezing fog mainly after Midnight, the rest of the forecast is on track for tonight. Freezing fog is possible along the Milk River Valley near Havre and in the valleys of Southwest MT.
A few higher gusts might occur with the passage of the cold front but the overall trend through tonight, will be toward lighter winds. A secondary cold front with temps in the teens and 20s behind it, will be dropping southeast into northeast Montana later today. Expect the airmass to pay only a brief visit as an induced upper ridge moves in Wednesday.
Timing wise models are in good agreement with this low stratus deck developing 03Z-06Z across the southeastern CWA and 06Z-09Z through the I-35 corridor and eastern Hill Country, including SAT and AUS.