Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ALOFT: CYCLOGENESIS WAS IN PROGRESS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP TROF CLOSES OFF. THIS LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM SD ACROSS MN INTO SW ONTARIO BY 00Z/THU. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF REMAINING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL CONT SSE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE: THE COLD FRONT JUST EXITED OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES AND WAS NOW E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT. WE START OF WEDNESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
341 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR ANY PCPN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GENERATING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SOME OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A 2500' MARINE LYR HAS COOLED OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 10-20 DEGREES FROM WEEKEND NUMBERS.
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK WAVE PUSHES IN FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
THIS IS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROF THAT STRETCHES INTO TX AND ALSO A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
345 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SPIT OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
356 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA TO START THE PERIOD.
258 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS.
624 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH ITS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW WARM AND HUMID AIR TO REMAIN OVER OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A cold front is currently located across northern portions of the Panhandle. Heading through the afternoon, the cold front will slow its progression some, reaching an Ozona to Browwnwood line by late afternoon. Doll (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) The cold front will push through our southern counties Wednesday night, with a good possibility of showers and thunderstorms along and behind this front. The highest rain chances will shift into our southeastern counties Wednesday night.
FALL-LIKE INTRUSION OF COOL AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH TOMORROW THEN NICE IMPROVEMENT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SAT ALOFT: CYCLOGENESIS WAS IN PROGRESS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP TROF CLOSES OFF. THIS LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM SD ACROSS MN INTO SW ONTARIO BY 00Z/THU. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF REMAINING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL CONT SSE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS NOW E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS UNTIL DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPS WITHIN EXITING THERMAL TROF.
321 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CARIB. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED WITH RIDGING HOLDING LOCALLY. STEERING WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. /GREGORIA PREVAILING FLOW REMAINS EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 5- 10KTS OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME 5KTS OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
High pressure will bump up some over the northern Rockies Wednesday. This translates into a little warmer conditions and mostly clear conditions.
120 PM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. UPPER LOW LIFTS OVER MINNESOTA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN. WITH 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
459 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
313 PM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET AN UPPER LEVEL BOOST FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN MISSOURI BY 12Z.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING EAST OF SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL FORECAST. SURFACE BASED CAPES RANGE FROM UP TO 1500 J/KG IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO 2000 TO 3500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OUR SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER WE CAN GET A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO ALLOW THE CAPE TO BUILD.
155 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ISSUED AT 154 PM| CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 MORNING UPDATE FOCUS ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES IN SD. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THRU WED/WED NIGHT. WPC TRACKS THE LOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR KMSP BY 00Z WED. WILL BE ON THE COOL/NW SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTIVE/HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OUR SW AR TERMINALS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SPILL BACK OVER THE DIVIDE.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF AND A RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
AND HAVE VCSH WORDING IN PLACE TO REFLECT THIS RISK OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 VERY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS VERY RARE TO SEE SUCH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SUMMER. IN FACT IT MAY WELL RIVAL THE LOW PRESSURE RECORD FOR MSP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE AIR MASS WILL DRY.
A strong upper level trough will continue to move east across the Plains tonight with a cold front pushing from central Kansas and into Oklahoma. For Wednesday, the west edge of the upper trough will move across western Kansas in the morning with a continued slight chance for light rain showers then ending with skies becoming mostly clear in the afternoon.
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SUPPRESS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT NUMBER 4 HAS SWEPT ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH A CORRESPONDING REINFORCING NORTH NORTHEAST WIND WHICH IS GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH IN AREAS IN NORTHERN WY.
225 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2015 NORTHERN COLORADO REMAINS IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TODAY FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS TROF AND COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN MONTANA DROPPED TO -1C AT GGW AND EVEN 03-5C OVER BACK EDGE OF TROF IN CANADA.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SPIT OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY FOR AUGUST.
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO SET IN WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
A cold front will move south through the northern half of West Central Texas tomorrow shifting winds to the northeast over the northern terminals by tomorrow afternoon. Have included a chance of convective activity at KSJT for several hours tomorrow afternoon associated with the movement of the cold front into that area. A cold front is currently located across northern portions of the Panhandle. Heading through the afternoon, the cold front will slow its progression some, reaching an Ozona to Browwnwood line by late afternoon. Doll (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) The cold front will push through our southern counties Wednesday night, with a good possibility of showers and thunderstorms along and behind this front. The highest rain chances will shift into our southeastern counties Wednesday night.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
325 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MINNESOTA. 12Z MODEL RUNS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. EVENTUALLY WILL LOSE THE STRONGER FORCING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WHILE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST ALLOWS A TRANSITION TO LIGHT S/SW WINDS.
547 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTH A BIT TOMORROW. LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHER PRESSURE FILLS IN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE.
Heading into this evening and tonight, eyes will then focus on a cold front approaching from the northwest. Overnight, the cold front will move through the region and a much cooler airmass will enter from the northwest. Cold front will continue to plow through the area Wednesday. Once precip and clouds clear out Wednesday night, lows will tank into the lower 50s.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALTHOUGH IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT WEAKEN.
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
240 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WHICH HI RES MODEL TO FOLLOW FOR EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR SERN SD AS IT MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH.
224 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS HIGHWAY 30 WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE OUR SOUTHERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER CAPE. STRONG CYCLONE (FOR MID AUGUST) WILL TRACK INTO NW WI BY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
353 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING. BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE 700MB AND 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MUCH COOLER DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION BOTH PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY OF SLOWING FRONT AND ALSO DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED FRONT AIDED BY UPPER JET/UPPER TROUGH. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USHERING IN STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AS LARGE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A MOIST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE.
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH ITS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW WARM AND HUMID AIR TO REMAIN OVER OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
130 PM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, INCREASING IN CHANCES AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON, PARTICULARLY NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS DECREASING A FEW DEGREES TODAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DIGGING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. FORMING A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE IT HOOKS NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE. GENERAL CONSENSUS REMAINS WITH TRACKING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRECEDED BY THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SOME BREAKS BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL LINES OF STORMS.
HAVE RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY OUT WEST FOR THE HIGH BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR PERSISTENCE.
Will place the highest PoPs (40-50%) generally along and east of an Albany to Tallahassee line for the 00z-06z time frame followed by 30% for the coastal waters through the remainder of the overnight period.
323 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 Primary concern in the short term will be severe weather chances tonight associated an approaching cold front. Based on the current progression of the cold front, it should pass through the metro area between 7 and 8 PM, and clear out of the forecast area before midnight.
TRIED TO TIME THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUILDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT VALLEY.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS WELL A THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. UPPER LOW (NOW SEEN ON W/V OVER CNTL MEXICO) WILL BE LIFTING NWD AS TROF OVER THE PLAINS DIGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.
LIGHT RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS AS THEY ARRIVE BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND USHER IN THE COOLER AIR WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. REMNANTS OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST REACHES OF THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW APPROACHING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACCORDING TO BOTH NAEFS AND GEFS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AND UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
High pressure ridge will keep dry conditions over Norcal through the week.
1204 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE NAM SHOWING H7 TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +1 AND +3 DEG C OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z WED. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH A COOLER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT YIELDING WEAKER INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THU BENEATH THERMAL RIDGING. WARM AND MAINLY DRY FOR LATER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK THEN COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
1237 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AMA TAF SITE WITH THIS ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY. A DECENT LATE-SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A TASTE OF FALL FOR WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE STOUT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT MID AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MANY AREAS AT THIS TIME. ON WEDNESDAY, APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DUE TO A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW (25-30 KTS AT 850 MB DURING THE DAY). BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GOOD DEEP LAYERED FORCING (EVEN WITH SOME UPPER- JET STREAK SUPPORT) SHOULD CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH EVEN SOME POST-COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS.
Most convection-resolving guidance this morning and the 12Z NAM are generating better coverage of convection along or just ahead of the cold front around 21Z. The main forecast issue for today is precip potential with a southeastward moving cold front. The cold front was over northwest Missouri early this morning. The RUC/NAM/HRRR and a couple of cam models are all in strong agreement the front will extend from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Missouri Bootheel at 21z.
REMAINDER OF THE HIGH WIND HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 AM. BUT IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP MESSAGES SIMPLE DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING RATHER THAN CANCELING AND REPLACING WITH A WIND ADVISORY. BUT OF MORE IMPACT MAY BE THE HIGHER WINDS THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
815 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
521 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 GENERAL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
1103 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPDATE BREEZY AND MILD AGAIN TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SWEPT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS AM AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE JUST DELAYED MENTION OF CONVECTION AN HOUR BASED ON LATEST TIMING OF COLD FRONT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST BORDER ZONES AROUND MIDDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GULF WITH NORTHWEST OR WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
1110 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
637 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER. ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER.