Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Gusty northwesterly winds with gusts of 30-35 mph will follow behind the front along with slightly cooler temperatures. Things will be slightly warmer on the western SD plains with highs in the low to mid 80s. Upper level trough axis pushes through later today with some FGEN at 700 mb along the SD/NE border. However, dry air present at the low levels indicate precipitation likely won't reach the ground. Upper level ridge builds in the west after today, bringing dry, northwest flow at the upper levels and southerly winds at the sfc. A cold front will continue to move through the region this morning, with winds shifting NW and becoming breezy at times.
Key Message: Another day of early morning fog, followed by an afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Expect fog density and coverage to be less than yesterday morning with the warmer temperatures and less rainfall. Fairly persistence forecast with the ridge remaining overhead in the mid levels and the lower levels staying moderately moist with flow out of the south/southeast. Some increased mid level dry air with the ridge overhead could lead to an increase of DCAPE values with some of the storms, so gusty downbursts are possible under the strongest storms today.
Trending just a bit cooler for Monday in the wake of a weak cold front, but high temperatures should still be in the 80s for many.
The mid lvl theta-e ridge will encompass much of southeast New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, and the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns which will be the favored areas for convection to initiate. An upper lvl ridge is expected to develop over the Great Basin region with a disturbance moving along the eastern periphery of said ridge.
1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Ridge of high pressure will hold over the region through Monday.
(Rest of Today) The stationary boundary that lingered W to E across the state of TN has lifted a little northward as a warm front today and now oriented more NW to SE. High pressure shifting eastward has returned SE flow which will pull moisture into the region. Daytime highs will reach the lower 90s once again with heat index values in the upper 90s.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s for the Plateau to low 90s except for Nashville Metro which should be a few degrees warmer.
As far as other storm hazards, T500 temperatures are a little warmer today, ranging from around -6C on the TBW 12Z sounding to -5C on XMR.
As this happens, high pressure will bring hotter temperatures the first half of the week. 5 inches in the lower deserts. Meanwhile, high pressure will rebuild over the southern and central Great Basin with temperatures climbing to around 4 to 6 degrees above climo early in the work week. Ensembles and ensemble means are set on rebuilding the ridge through most of the west the first half of the week, with the high center consolidating northwest and north of our area. Upstream flow around the high would continue to tend to erode moisture on its own, however this pattern will also open us back up to easterly wave activity.
/Issued 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022/ This morning an upper-level trough is digging across the Upper Midwest with north and central GA beneath an upper-level high with a Bermuda high inching in over the area from the Atlantic. High temperatures this afternoon will warm into the lower 80s and upper 90s area wide with lows falling into the 70s and mid 60s across the northeastern Georgia mountains.
This will drive a cold front southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. After cold front moves across the area tonight into Monday morning, upper level ridging enters the area. A cold front is forecast to move into northeast Nebraska Sunday evening where a few showers and thunderstorms could develop as a nocturnal low- level jet increases.
This will promote continued onshore flow with some locally breezy winds in/around the Delta as well as the higher elevations. Highs this afternoon will be a touch cooler for most Valley communities with temperatures ranging from the middle 80s in Solano County to the mid/upper 90s around Redding and Red Bluff.
The upper low may allow for some better ventilation aloft, but should largely remain to the east of the forecast area for the remainder of today. Weak surface ridging will persist across the region, which will keep breezes light to gentle through the evening. From synopsis, High pressure over the central North Atlantic will slowly strengthen and extend over the Keys this afternoon resulting in gentle to moderate breezes in the coastal waters.
210 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Cooler and drier weather is expected Sunday.
201 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 As the trough over the upper midwest slides east we will see northwesterly winds decrease this evening. Upper ridge begins to build into the region Monday leading to a dry warming trend and lighter winds.
(This evening through Monday) Weak mid-level trough lingers over the south-central plains into Monday, and with diurnal heating and moderate elevated instability, there is a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow afternoon. Another humid day is expected tomorrow with dewpoint temperatures in the low/mid 70s.
Temperatures remain in the low 90s for coastal highs and low to mid 90s for areas away from the coast.
Hot again on Monday with isolated afternoon convection mainly near and around the higher elevations. Surface and upper ridging remain in control on Monday with slightly higher heights expected. This will result in warm temperatures into the low 90s once again across most of the lower elevation valley locations with afternoon convection forecast to develop across the higher elevations.
1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 (Rest of Today) The stationary boundary that lingered W to E across the state of TN has lifted a little northward as a warm front today and now oriented more NW to SE. High pressure shifting eastward has returned SE flow which will pull moisture into the region. Daytime highs will reach the lower 90s once again with heat index values in the upper 90s.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to get warmer each day as well, with high temperatures likely in the mid to upper 90s later this week.
High pressure is in the process of moving into the Great Basin and dominating Idaho weather for most of this week and the week after.
This front has initiated some convection to our northwest even with the cooler temperatures. Although we did think that the cooler temperatures after morning showers yesterday would suppress instability, but strong WAA changes that quickly. The latest HREF suggests convection to occur ahead of and along the cold front moving from west to east across Minnesota and Wisconsin. The biggest area of uncertainty right now is how far south along the cold front will see activity. Behind the cold front we begin our cooler and drier period. Monday still has a chance for some showers, mainly central Minnesota and north, as the weekend's upper low moves out.
Moderate lows tonight quickly warm on Monday, while a preposterous ridge builds overhead.
Overnight lows will be mild in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies with light southeasterly winds.
Broad low to mid-level ridging is focused along the Eastern CONUS resulting in weak easterly low-level flow into southeast Alabama. An upper level trough axis is passing across the area moving towards Georgia, but there is not much translation into the lower levels where the weak ridging remains in control. The ridge holds firm tomorrow with PoPs trending slightly lower as pockets of dry 700-500mb air advect into the area through northeasterly flow. Most areas should reach the lower 90s during the afternoon.
A trough dipping through the Dakotas will continue to pull a cold front across the forecast area this evening and tonight. Spotty light showers and sprinkles will be possible through the morning hours, but rain should make it's way out of the area by the evening, as the cold front moves southeast of the forecast area.
Weak ridging aloft will reside across the region today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Weak mid-level ridging will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss region today, keeping a warm, moist airmass over the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s with mostly clear skies going into Monday.
343 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 With southerly flow streaming into the region, a diurnal cu field has expanded northward this afternoon as we remain underneath the western periphery of the upper ridge. WAA pattern has supported not only warmer temps for today, but also a bit more humidity. Kentucky Mesonet obs reveal temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, which yields heat indices in the upper 90s to 100.
The next trough/front will move this way tomorrow and showers and thunderstorms will be a bit more organized and on the rise.
This will drive a cold front southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. After cold front moves across the area tonight into Monday morning, upper level ridging enters the area. There is a small chance for a couple of showers and storms tonight and into Monday morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. However, due to the low confidence on when/if any precipitation will effect any of our sites, chose to leave mention out of the TAF for this issuance.
75" of an inch and storm motions moving at a decent clip so flash flood threat is on the low side. Expect a weak cold front to sag southward over the plains late tonight and early Monday morning from the associated northern plains trof. Main impacts will be a wind shift to the northeast and slightly cooler temperatures for Monday. High pressure ridge aloft will be building across the Great Basin and western Colorado on Monday for a mainly dry day. A ridge will build up over the western states this week, centered generally over the Great Basin. This will mean persistent warm and mostly dry conditions across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations.
The cold front will then gradually pass on Mon with likely storm development mostly to the east and south of srn WI. Temps will probably be a bit warmer Monday, especially in the east with more time for heating before the front moves through.
Temperatures ahead of the front Monday should be in the mid 90s to near 100 again, with slightly cooler temperatures north of the front along I-70. Upper level ridging will develop over the western United States and persist into the weekend. Western Kansas will be on the eastern extremity of the ridge, with only very weak lee troughing and south winds. A cold front will approach the TAF stations after the end of the period, along with chances for thunderstorms.
As this happens, high pressure will bring hotter temperatures the first half of the week.
Temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley, with slightly cooler temperatures along the I-10 corridor. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of the Trans Pecos and the Davis Mountains. Lowered PoPs to slight for most of the area in the afternoon as most of the high res guidance is pretty sparse with shower and storm development.
243 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 After an area of morning stratus cleared out, we have seen clear skies across the forecast area, Temperatures have soared into the 90s and even the low 100s in our far southwest where air is drier and they are seeing a more westerly wind component. High temperatures should end up roughly 10 degrees cooler than today.
The elongated vort axis will weaken, as a stronger upper level trof digs southeast across the Upper Midwest.
Scattered storms have developed ahead of the trough. An upper level trough will continue to move east across the northern Plains today then into the Great Lakes region on Monday. There will be lift with associated with the upper level trough to make some isolated to scattered storm possible tonight into Monday morning. As the upper level trough moves east on Monday a front will move south towards the area. Instability will increase across the area on Monday, but shear will be more marginally across the area as the trough axis remains north of the area.
A similar pattern is forecast tomorrow, with the highest coverage of showers and storms generally expected across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia. High temperatures are forecast near 90 tomorrow with low temperatures tonight in the low 70s.
Surface observations show a developing lee cyclone in eastern South Dakota with a trough axis extending south into eastern Colorado. The slow progression of the surface boundary will let temperatures bounce back into the low to mid 90s again Monday afternoon with continued WAA ahead of the front.
Meanwhile, a cold front is currently located across the Great Plains. The CAMS are showing a line of convection developing ahead of a pre-frontal trough over Southern Missouri into North Central Arkansas Monday afternoon.
An upper trough will cross the Northern Plains through tonight. A weak cold front will reach the far southern counties by early this evening, The front will be a weak focus for a few thunderstorms this evening across the south, followed by a slight chance for light showers or sprinkles into north central Nebraska as weak mid-level frontogenesis increases. Lows tonight very near previous forecast from the lower 50s far northwest, to the upper 50s south and east. An upper ridge will remain centered over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin as an upper low over Hudson Bay Canada with troughing extends into the northeastern U.
151 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Latest sfc analysis this aftn shows a cold front continuing to push south/east of our area, with modest pressure rises in its wake. CAA has kept temperatures largely below average today, with 1 PM MDT temps generally in the low to mid 70s across nern WY and wrn SD, increasing to the mid 80s toward s cntrl SD. Satellite imagery clearly depicts a compact upper low near the ND/SK/MB border, supporting a broad area of showers and storms across that region. Tonight into early tomorrow morning, 700 mb moisture conv and fgen increase along a W-E oriented band from approximately the Pine Ridge to the Sandhills.
However as the warm front continues to move into the region the moist southern flow will feed daytime afternoon convection forming along a surface boundary. A mid level trough that is swinging the LLJ will swing through between 06Z to 12Z. --Another round of storms tomorrow evening-- As the upper level low moves through the Great Lakes region it will bring a frontal system through the area.
/19/ Weak ridging aloft will reside across the region today. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Weak mid-level ridging will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss region today, keeping a warm, moist airmass over the area. Overnight lows will range from the lower to middle 70s with mostly clear skies going into Monday.
1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 A tropical air mass characteristic of dew points in the lower to mid 70s has already yielded some very spotty convection late this morning. /19/ (Sunday through Monday) An upper-level trough axis in the the Gulf of Mexico combined with an approaching trough swinging east across the Midwest will allow for sufficient instability for afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Similar conditions expected again on Monday as upper-trough across the mid-CONUS merges with elongated trough in the Gulf of Mexico contributing to fairly generous rain chances during the afternoon across the entire ArkLaTex with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Forecast is on track today with cu developing across the higher elevations. Slight chance PoPs are forecast this afternoon with greatest coverage of convection across the higher elevations of the mountains and plateau. ABM /ISSUED 325 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022/ Key Message: Another day of early morning fog, followed by an afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Expect fog density and coverage to be less than yesterday morning with the warmer temperatures and less rainfall. Fairly persistence forecast with the ridge remaining overhead in the mid levels and the lower levels staying moderately moist with flow out of the south/southeast. Some increased mid level dry air with the ridge overhead could lead to an increase of DCAPE values with some of the storms, so gusty downbursts are possible under the strongest storms today.
A warming and drying trend will start Monday, as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the region.
Better chances will ramp up over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois during the late afternoon as a line of thunderstorms develops ahead of cold front that will drop south of Iowa. There will also be ascent from a mid- level trough moving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Overnight lows will fall back into the lower to mid 70s with muggy conditions persisting given the open Gulf and steady south winds, albeit slightly lower than during the daytime hours. Overnight lows will continue to range from the lower to mid 70s with more cloud cloud expected to persist on Monday night.
Gusty northwesterly winds with gusts of 30-35 mph will follow behind the front along with slightly cooler temperatures. Things will be slightly warmer on the western SD plains with highs in the low to mid 80s. Upper level trough axis pushes through later today with some FGEN at 700 mb along the SD/NE border. However, dry air present at the low levels indicate precipitation likely won't reach the ground. Upper level ridge builds in the west after today, bringing dry, northwest flow at the upper levels and southerly winds at the sfc.
1034 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Cooler and drier weather is expected Sunday.
A brief break from the widespread rain as upper level ridging continues to work its way into the southeastern US stemming from the west Atlantic ridge through Monday. Weak troughing over the north central US will slowly work its way towards the Ohio River Valley by the end of the day Monday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70's.
The activity to the east is right on the southwestern periphery of an upper low, which has been the hot spot for deep convection today. With the lack of coverage, temperatures have been able to climb to near 90 degrees into the lower 90s. This enhanced moisture will be accompanied by an inverted trough, so shower coverage will be higher than the average summer day. In addition to the inverted trough, a weak upper-level low will be transiting near the area, so thunder chances will also be elevated. Winds will remain generally east to southeast as ridging remains across the region.
529 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Latest sfc analysis this aftn shows a cold front continuing to push south/east of our area, with modest pressure rises in its wake. CAA has kept temperatures largely below average today, with 1 PM MDT temps generally in the low to mid 70s across nern WY and wrn SD, increasing to the mid 80s toward s cntrl SD. Satellite imagery clearly depicts a compact upper low near the ND/SK/MB border, supporting a broad area of showers and storms across that region. Tonight into early tomorrow morning, 700 mb moisture conv and fgen increase along a W-E oriented band from approximately the Pine Ridge to the Sandhills.
615 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 (This evening through Monday) Weak mid-level trough lingers over the south-central plains into Monday, and with diurnal heating and moderate elevated instability, there is a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow afternoon. Another humid day is expected tomorrow with dewpoint temperatures in the low/mid 70s.
737 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Building strong ridge will bring clear & dry weather tonight. As the trough over the upper midwest slides east we will see northwesterly winds decrease this evening. Upper ridge begins to build into the region Monday leading to a dry warming trend and lighter winds.
Rain chances will trend downward Monday with just a slight chance through the week along the higher terrain.
(Tonight) High pressure remains anchored over the southeastern CONUS, with upper ridging over the east coast. Winds will become calm over the next couple of hours, though with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s, expect lows to only fall into the lower 70s by daybreak.
(This evening through Monday) Plenty of sunshine today saw temperatures climb into the low 90s and with elevated dew points this produced a heat index in the mid to upper 90s across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. The area of disturbed weather is projected to make a slow approach to the Texas coast with a weak vort max lifting into the Louisiana coastal waters at the same time as an upper lvl trof is expected to swing down into north Texas tomorrow afternoon. This trof is expected to push a cool front into north Texas.
933 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022 A ridge of high pressure will hold over the region through Monday.
After an area of morning stratus cleared out, we have seen clear skies across the forecast area, Temperatures have soared into the 90s and even the low 100s in our far southwest where air is drier and they are seeing a more westerly wind component. High temperatures should end up roughly 10 degrees cooler than today. A cold front is on the doorstep of both terminals this eve and expect this front to move through over next few hrs.
Best chance remains at TRI Upper and surface ridging will remain throughout the forecast period with winds remaining light and variable outside of convection. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 93 73 90 71 / 20 20 20 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 93 71 88 69 / 20 30 20 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 92 70 88 67 / 20 30 30 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 90 68 86 66 / 20 30 10 80 40.
Temperatures range from the lower 70s, where precipitation moved through over the past couple of hours, to mid 80s along and west of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, a cold front is currently located across the Great Plains. The CAMS are showing a line of convection developing ahead of a pre-frontal trough over Southern Missouri into North Central Arkansas Monday afternoon.
631 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 (This evening through Monday) Plenty of sunshine today saw temperatures climb into the low 90s and with elevated dew points this produced a heat index in the mid to upper 90s across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. The area of disturbed weather is projected to make a slow approach to the Texas coast with a weak vort max lifting into the Louisiana coastal waters at the same time as an upper lvl trof is expected to swing down into north Texas tomorrow afternoon. This trof is expected to push a cool front into north Texas.
814 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Showers and storms had ended over the higher terrain, however some lingering activity was over nern CO. 75" of an inch and storm motions moving at a decent clip so flash flood threat is on the low side. Expect a weak cold front to sag southward over the plains late tonight and early Monday morning from the associated northern plains trof. Main impacts will be a wind shift to the northeast and slightly cooler temperatures for Monday. High pressure ridge aloft will be building across the Great Basin and western Colorado on Monday for a mainly dry day. A ridge will build up over the western states this week, centered generally over the Great Basin. This will mean persistent warm and mostly dry conditions across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations.
With southerly flow streaming into the region, a diurnal cu field has expanded northward this afternoon as we remain underneath the western periphery of the upper ridge. WAA pattern has supported not only warmer temps for today, but also a bit more humidity. Kentucky Mesonet obs reveal temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, which yields heat indices in the upper 90s to 100.