Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA ARIZONA AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
APPEARS AS THOUGH SOUTHEAST MT HAS THE LOWEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA THIS EVENING. SPLIT FLOW TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO A DISORGANIZED TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SPREADING OVER THE REGION.
Otherwise, southerly gradient winds will keep temps a bit warmer than persistence, with uncertain how mainly morning clouds N and W may hold off on keeping temps down into Tuesday, but areas generally south of I-70 should reach 75-80 again for maxes. SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Still expect a yet another dry and warmer night than last as winds remain out of the south which will allow some mixing which should keep temperatures up.
/ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ (Tonight and Today) An upper trough over the western states today will dig south and close off over the southern California/western Arizona by tomorrow afternoon. Low to mid level clouds will begin to mover over the area tomorrow with highs ranging form the lower 80s over the western CWA to the mid 80s over the eastern CWA where there will be less cloud cover. Cooler and wetter conditions are on the way. This afternoon's water vapor loop shows an energetic upper trough continuing to churn across the western part of the country, with one upper-level low located over northern Nevada, and another low near Los Angeles.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FROST. A SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SFC RIDGING PERSISTS.
620 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING PRESENT TO ACT UPON THE LIMITED MOISTURE THAT IS ALOFT. AFTER THIS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURE AGAIN AND A LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. /ISSUED 145 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WITH DIGGING WESTERN US TROUGH AND ALSO A TRANSIENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER ONT/MN. WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONT THROUGH MN/EASTERN SD/CENTRAL NEB. THERMAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.
/ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTLINE RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AND A DEEP TROF IS NOTED OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE DEPARTING WAVE AND DEVELOPING TROF ALONG THE MEXICAN/TEXAS COASTLINE WILL SHIFT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION AREAWIDE.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the portion of Northeast Oklahoma where the highest winds are collocated with the lowest RH. An upper low will traverse the Plains late this week.
924 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODIFY. IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
1015 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AUTUMN ENVIRONMENT.
HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS ENERGY WITHIN AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS TO SBA COUNTY TONIGHT.
SO LEANED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. /ISSUED 711 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER SOME AREAS MAY BE A TAD COOLER AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MUSCLE SHOALS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
723 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODIFY. IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. AND WHILE THE HIGHER END 30 KNOT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE FOR MIDWEEK WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT. BETTER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE MILD MINS AROUND 70 MOST LOCATIONS. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND SLOWLY PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT WITH DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AND WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC DID SEE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. SOME RURAL/OUTLYING SPOTS DID SEE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT AND MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
Lows are closer but might be slightly cooler this 1st night before moderating closer to guidance after a couple days worth warm air advection.
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION, WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING FROM THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.
01 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across Eastern North Carolina. As a result, adjusted the overnight lows across North Florida upward a couple of degrees, but stayed closer to the guidance values into Srn GA/AL where the gradient will likely weaken as high pressure drops a little to the south by daybreak.
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 15% TO 35% RANGE.
715 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS SLIDING SOUTH WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
948 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH UP NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT KEEPING SKIES CLOUD FREE ALLOWING FOR RADIATIVE PROCESSES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 68 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 68 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0.
635 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALIGNED THE RAIN CHANCES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BE AND LIMITED THEM TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THOUGH WE MAY MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LOWER RH VALUES UP THROUGH VERY LATE EVENING GIVEN THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT AND SLOWER TEMP FALLS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY OOZING SOUTHWARD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALIGNED THE RAIN CHANCES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BE AND LIMITED THEM TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
DEW POINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE MID STATE AT 02Z, SO DON'T EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUT PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
APPEARS AS THOUGH SOUTHEAST MT HAS THE LOWEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN AN AREA OF DRY SLOTTING LATER TONIGHT. SPLIT FLOW TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO A DISORGANIZED TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH DOWNWARD MOTION SPREADING OVER THE REGION.
839 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK. High pressure will be building into the region over the next day. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 80s Tuesday.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH THESE PIECES SET TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER TOMORROW. WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NOW DOWN TO 0. WITH THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING INTO ARIZONA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS ALOFT. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED INLAND AND FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE.
611 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Latest surface map showed low pressure centered over west central Minnesota, with a trailing cold front southwest into western Kansas. Pressure gradient remains tight over our area between the low and a high over the Carolinas. However, the pressure gradient will keep winds around 10 mph much of the night over central Illinois, but lower in the southeast part of the CWA away from the low. Temperatures will be coolest across the southeast with the lower winds, mainly in the mid 40s for lows, ranging to the lower 50s west of I-55.
THE WEAK TROUGH IN MID-LEVELS IS PROJECTED TO PASS ON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT.
The axis of the lee trough will push far enough east such that the axis of strongest winds will shift more toward central Kansas. Short range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure slowing it's eastward advance across the Great Basin tonight while building southward into the Desert Southwest. Although the flow aloft will begin to intensify somewhat downstream of the trough axis during the period, a lack of moisture/instability will keep precip chances at bay through late Tuesday afternoon.
845 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
902 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
1017 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CELL WAS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 EAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
1112 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
807 PM PST FRI DEC 4 2015 FREEZING FOG IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS FROM I-80 NEAR TRUCKEE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS START TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WITH A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. SO FN-CONVERGENCE NOTED AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. S WINDS SUSTAINED ~22KTS/25MPH W/ ~30KT/35MPH GUSTS ARE LKLY FOR ALL OF CNTRL KS TIL ~21Z WHEN THEY WOULD GREATLY DIMINISH TO 9-13KTS AS A PRE COLD-FRONTAL SFC TROF APCHS.
/ISSUED 949 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2015/ SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE OH VALLEY SW INTO ECNTRL TX THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING THUS VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. /ISSUED 342 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THUS DISPLACING A SHORT ROUND OF RIDGING ALOFT. A LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND ATTEMPT TO VEER WINDS SOUTHWEST. WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 50S.
256 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ON MID WEEK TROUGHING. SO KEPT WITH THE LOWER CONSENSUS POPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
Drier air moving in with a weak ridge of high pressure will bring relatively clear skies and light winds for much of the valley. Saturday will mostly sunny and mild and Sunday will be cooler and showery.
315 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
FIRST SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
1213 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 UPDATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
1117 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 834 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOHAVE DESERT THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON SATURDAY AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
/issued 1126 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ High pressure, light winds and lower dewpoints will continue today. /issued 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. Although, humidity levels may begin creeping up each day as the high begins shifting east.
232 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front now over central SD, with the winds now gradually decreasing across western SD. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge over the Rockies and Plains as trough moves across central Canada. Skies are mainly sunny with cooler air continuing to filter into the area. Temps range from the 70s over the higher Black Hills to around 100 degrees over south central SD.
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will provide seasonable and dry weather through Thursday.
226 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Upper ridge axis extended from the Dakotas to the Four Corners. Model solutions trend with the evolution of the cold front passage transitioning into more of a stationary front with cooler temperatures compared to previous days but still above normal prior to going into the weekend with zonal to northwest flow.
1059 AM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Fairly quiet morning based on latest observations and satellite as trough axis stretches from Broadus, Montana down to Lusk, Wyoming and further south to La Junta, Colorado. Another warm and relatively dry day in store for many as our persist upper level ridge erodes with advancement of cold front to our northwest. After a record setting day across Wyoming and Nebraska for high temperatures, another warm day in store albeit a few degrees cooler but still into the 90s for many. Model solutions trend with evolution of the cold front passage transitioning into more of a stationary front with cooler temperatures compared to previous days but still above normal prior to going into the weekend with zonal to northwest flow starting the weekend period.
Highs in the 90s today in west central Minnesota will shift east as the thermal ridge moves along with the front.
Amplified upper ridge was centered over the four corners region of the U. There is some weak energy on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis, but regional radar looks clear early this morning. Further east, temperatures had dropped into the low 60s. Fairly high confidence in temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s today with the higher readings over western MO and southeast Kansas. Some weak upper energy to the east of the ridge axis will push across the area tonight.
Low temperatures will be below normal through Thursday night, with lows ranging from the low 60s to the mid to upper 60s along the beaches. Warm and dry conditions forecasted for the short term period due to mid level ridging and plenty of sunshine.
Energy aloft tracking into central Canada will flatten the ridge over the region. Resulting in a bit cooler temperatures for Thursday. The drier airmass overnight and Thursday night should allow for cooler than NBM lows. So, blended toward cooler MOS values. Highs on Thursday are likely to be around 10 degrees cooler vs today.
1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Abundant sunshine will prevail across central and southeast Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. The dominant upper level ridge that brought record heat to the western US this week breaks down on Thursday as an upper wave moves into the Canadian Prairie.
212 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 The upper-level ridge that has been responsible for the record setting heat will begin to flatten to more zonal flow behind a weak, dry cold front that is slowly making its way through the area.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Mid-level cloud cover continues to build as it shifts south over the Ozark Mountains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, highlighting the position of the next frontal boundary to impact the Ark-La-Tex from the east. Elsewhere, lows in the low 70s are likely.
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
A closed low was positioned over far Southeast Canada with a longwave trough extending southwest along the Eastern Seaboard. Sprawling deep-layer ridging remains centered over the Four Corners states. Toward the surface, a weak cold front extended from west to east along the Northern Gulf Coast. Expect the longwave trough to move further east of the area while the deep-layer ridge weakens over the Four Corners States through Thursday. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs ranging from the upper 80s northwest to the lower 90s southeast. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south.
A cold front has been developing to the northwest of the forecast area this afternoon. There is not much of a temperature difference behind the front, but the winds switch and it is a little cooler and drier. The cold front to the northwest of the forecast area this afternoon is expected to move into the area later tonight and during the day on Thursday. By Thursday evening, the front sags south into north central Kansas and with an upper level wave moving over the ridge, there is a small chance for some thunderstorms, mainly in south central Nebraska. The upper ridge flattens across the area and there will be more zonal flow. The cold front lingers and weakens across north central Kansas through the period.
323 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will linger over the area into Thursday.
336 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure late into the week. SPC continues to highlight the coastal areas of the Lowcountry and Coastal Empire with a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. High pressure will build into the region after FROPA, bringing cooler and drier air. Lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s inland with upper 60s and low 70s along the beaches.
This high pressure has continued to place much of the southern plains in a regime of light, southeasterly winds at the surface with hot temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. This eastward extension will help migrate the low-level thermal ridge east and into portions of the southern plains. Temperatures will begin to rise into the low 100s across portions of the region as this occurs.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 62 88 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 59 84 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 84 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 49 81 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Could see temperatures rise a touch more in the next hour or two, so we encourage you to use sunscreen and stay hydrated if heading outdoors! Heading into the late afternoon and evening, expect a cold front extending from Manitoba to western South Dakota to gradually dive southeastward across the region. With that being said, think we have a better chance of seeing elevated storms lifting from the 850:700 mb layer, with the greatest severe threat expected to reside ahead of the cold front and along the nose of the 30-40 kt LLJ across SW Minnesota and NW Iowa.