Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
0" range in the southerly flow between Cindy to the West/Gomex and High Pressure Ridge to the East/Wrn Atlc. Mid Atlc High Pressure Ridge builds closer to the NE FL/SE GA region from the E/SE and while conditions at the surface will remain humid. the airmass aloft will dry out slightly and this will allow for more insolation and expect Partly Sunny skies to push Max Temps inland into the lower 90s at least with Heat Indices topping out closer to 105 degrees, a little better at the coast with an Atlc Coast SE sea breeze and Max Temps topping out in the upper 80s and heat indices close to 100 degrees.
For now, the highest pops should be confined to the northern CWFA, but this depends heavily on where Cindy makes landfall and tracks. Temps will be a few degrees warmer than today on Thursday.
Temperatures should rise into the lower 90s and the average high temperature is only 68 degrees.
Hi-res model guidance then shows offshore flow at 925 mb strengthening to 25-45 kt tonight into Thursday morning as a thermal trough shifts westward toward the Pacific Coast.
Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees cooler, although highs will be a few degrees above normal. Dry, zonal flow aloft today will replace yesterday's upper ridge.
524 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Aviation Section Updated A gradual cooling trend is expected over the next few days as several cold fronts drop south out of Canada. On Thursday, a cold front will drop south out of Canada, possibly bringing a few showers with it to central MT.
By the late aftn and early evening, a lee trough will be located just east of the Laramie Range, with winds weakening and gaining more of an easterly component to the east of this trough. The cold front for Thursday morning is now coming in stronger than previous model runs. High temps will be around 10 degrees cooler, mainly across the plains.
Deep south-southeast flow will continue across the region between high pressure ridge axis north of the area and TC Cindy in the north central Gulf. Moisture has increased slightly, but warmer temps aloft (-4/-5 deg C at 500mb), and considerable cloud cover may still end up limiting overall instability.
While temperatures today are expected to be 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, the drier air will keep the relative humidity values this afternoon just as low, in the low to mid 20s. Temperatures will again been cooler, with highs another 5 degrees cooler. Cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the early portion of the extended.
1236 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lows tonight in the lower 70s. -Vincent Mid and upper level moisture is forecast to increase tonight and Thursday as the mid/upper level ridge axis slowly shifts to our NE.
619 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Hot and humid, will be the prevailing conditions over the next couple of days as the broader pattern across the central Plains transitions from a trough to a more zonal flow, only to be flowed by another large trough, which should make for some rather nice weather for the weekend. In the near term, water vapor imagery shows a weak trough moving to our east this morning with a ridge to our west, which is flattening and spreading east into the Plains States.
730 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 A cold front will approach and become stationary over the region through mid week while dissipating.
Have also altered temps to match up with current conditions and to reflect a warmer trend than ongoing package had in place. Upper level flow has begun a transition as the ridging over the western U. As this occurs, the boundary will begin lifting back north as a warm front today, reaching northern Illinois this evening.
Of interest will be a deepening upper trough that will eventually shift into the Canadian prairies by tomorrow. With strong capping to the west, strong moisture transport and warm advection around 850-700 mb near the northward advancing warm front looks to be the focusing mechanism to get elevated convection going. In this scenario, the slowly southward moving cold frontal zone should help ignite another round of storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Shear/instability parameters would definitely support another severe threat over at least portions of the area Thursday afternoon/evening with surface-based storms possible near the low-level boundary. The highest chances still look to be near and south of I-90.
The most at risk areas today are the lowest elevations of the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon (Page area) along with Yavapai and Gila County. Strong high pressure centered over the area will result in continued hot temperatures through the remainder of the week.
86 inches via 12Z raob data) combined with daytime heating should support some shower development by later this morning and into the afternoon, although subsidence and dry air in the mid levels may keep overall coverage on the low side. In addition, rather warm temperatures aloft (-5C at 500MB) should also result in weak lapse rates which in turn should keep overall thunderstorm development and coverage on the low side as well, so plan to update the grids and zones to only depict isolated storm coverage.
In the wake of lower pressure to the east of Cindy, the subtropical ridge is rebuilding across the Florida Peninsula. This morning's sounding (12Z KKEY RAOB) sampled limited instability with weak inhibition in the lower troposphere.
/issued 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/ High level moisture has overspread the entire area this hour providing for warmer temperatures.
High temperatures should reach the lower to mid 90s across the Hill Country with mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor.
Lows will range from the low to mid 70's each night.
The strong subtropical ridge sitting across the southwestern CONUS will keep dry northwest flow and subsident conditions over Deep South Texas through the period. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from the lower 90s at the Island to near 108 across the Western Ranchlands and Upper RGV.
As of mid-morning the surface cold front extends from Weyburn, Saskatchewan, to Glendive and Miles City Montana. Enhanced mixing with the frontal passage and a stout thermal ridge in the warm sector of the cyclone still favors highs near 90 F today in south central ND. A cold front will sweep through the region today. Much cooler, below-normal temperatures are expected late this week and into the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 70 83 72 / 20 30 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 68 82 69 / 10 20 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 84 68 82 71 / 10 10 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 65 81 67 / 10 10 50 60.
Convective temperatures do lower into the lower 80s by 00z and an increasing amount of guidance developing convection along boundary at this time.
A cold front will sweep through the region today. Much cooler, below-normal temperatures are expected late this week and into the weekend.
An upper level ridge remains in place to our west, with a tropical system pushing north toward the LA coastal region early this morning.
There may be a break by mid to late afternoon, before more activity breaks out along the cold front. High resolution models break out pcpn along the cold front in the 4 to 6 pm time frame in the Red River Valley, then move it eastward into Minnesota and out of the FA by mid to late evening. Convective temperatures do lower into the lower 80s by 00z and an increasing amount of guidance developing convection along boundary at this time.
the aforementioned frontal boundary will become more of a warm front as it lifts northeast. Otherwise, a warmer night amid the increase in cloud cover.
Like yesterday, instability and deep layer shear will support a handful of strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds into central KS, although the highest severe risk will likely be over western Kansas closest to initiation. One more day of hot weather Thursday, with another chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms over mainly northern and western KS, as a strong cold front approaches from the north.
High pressure from Indiana to the southeast coast is going to rule Hoosier weather through Thursday night.
Initially there will be a flat upper ridge with westerly flow off the coast into the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge significantly amplifies late this week and this weekend for likely the warmest weather of this year so far over the area.
We could wind up with decent coverage of weak convection in the evening again, but with the low/mid level drying from the northwest, this would likely favor the central mountains and Palmer Divide areas. On Thursday, the ridge over the desert southwest shifts southward as a short wave trough moves into the the Dakotas in the afternoon. A weak cold front associated with this passing system will push into the northeast plains in the afternoon.
south to southeasterly winds and warm temperatures are expected with high temperatures close to or a degree or so warmer compared to yesterday. This is in result of the upper high centered over the Southwest U.
TFJ Cold front will move to the east early this morning taking scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. Upper level low currently over Alberta will move into Saskatchewan this afternoon. The system will also bring another cold front south during the day on Thursday with gusty NW winds developing once again.
644 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 North and Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge over the Southwest CONUS and to the northwest of Tropical Storm Cindy. Meanwhile, a large upper level ridge over the southwestern United States will start to weaken. We will have a another warm dry day across most of North and Central Texas today as we will be under subsidence from the upper ridge.
This trough will send another front into portions of northwest KS and central NE this afternoon. As of now given the closer proximity to the boundary north central and far northern KS have the highest chances for severe storms. A few of the high res ensembles show that the probabilities for strong wind gusts seem to coincide with the slight risk.
A broad trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will allow multiple weather systems to bring breezy south winds and periods of rain to the region this week. High pressure will take over the second half of the week bringing mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures. Expect convective showers for Tuesday as a cooler and slightly unstable airmass moves over the region.
855 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather for the beginning of the work week.
Minor updates were also made to temperatures and dew points based on observations, with highs this afternoon again climbing into the low to mid 80s. We'll also need to keep an eye on the convection moving thru OK & AR as some of the higher res guidance shows some of this trying to backdoor into our NE zones early this evening. An upper level ridge will begin building in from the southwest on Wed and nudge this impulse southward.
Surface obs are placing a cold front across far southwest Montana this morning. Given the strong large scale winds associated with the forming low pressure system, if any organized thunderstorms occur they will be capable of producing gusts 40 to 55 mph.
A weak cold front is crossing northern Utah today.
A few of the high resolution models are hinting at convection over Oklahoma/North Texas sending an outflow boundary south into the region this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing along this feature. For now, PoPs were kept in the low end chance category with slight chance PoPs overnight. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
603 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions are ongoing across TAF sites along the Highway 82 corridor, whereas LIFR conditions are occurring at sites to the south. This trough will combine with a warm, moist airmass in place over the region(as characterized by forecast PW values around 1. Hi-res guidance indicates a bit more coverage this afternoon thanks to this incoming trough and some of it may actually begin a little earlier in the late morning. However, as the trough axis lingers over the ArkLaMiss region through tonight, there is a better chance for showers to continue into the night in the moist airmass.
High pressure builds down from Canada tonight and settles over the region through Tuesday. The dry weather will be short lived as a series of troughs move into the region and enhance the potential for rain showers.
Further north, have trended twd the warmer guidance despite the ely flow, due to what shud be a mostly clear day across that region. The end result is temps trended twd the warmer guidance across the region.
GOES Satellite imagery this morning clearly shows a closed-off upper low moving into the Northern Rockies. The other item with the incoming trough is the east wind, which will be marginal for an NPW for Fort Peck Lake.
Skies are mostly cloudy with dew points in the low to middle 60s so temperatures are not likely to fall more than another degree or so before sunrise. A weak cold front will sink into Northeast Arkansas and North Tennessee as a series of mid level disturbances shift across the same region.
Upper level trough over the area will move east today. Upper level ridge over eastern MT will shift over the Red River Valley this afternoon. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system over OR. OR low pressure system will move across the Northern Plains tonight and bring a respectable chance for rain and some wet snow.
Latest RAP40 analysis shows an H100-H70 high pres ridge centered btwn Bermuda and the Bahama Bank, extending west acrs the FL panhandle. Ridge has weakened a bit over the past 24hrs, resulting in a greatly diminished wind field, mean winds E/SE arnd 5KTs thru 5KFT.
The change in air mass will occur as a cold front transitions across the Appalachians. The front is forecast to turn around as a warm front on Tuesday and head back northeast into the JKL forecast area.
Meanwhile a weak stationary front is draped across the area and deeper moisture associated with a weak mid level trough is moving into the region. Skies are mostly cloudy with dew points in the low to middle 60s so temperatures are not likely to fall more than another degree or so before sunrise. A weak cold front will sink into Northeast Arkansas and North Tennessee as a series of mid level disturbances shift across the same region.
The slow moving mid level trough axis will be situated over the Coastal Plains on Tuesday.
A passing upper trough will track from northeast Oregon to the ID/MT border by noon with accompanying showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. Development will focus along or ahead of the trough axis, putting the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains in the path. Precipitation will be light and increase in coverage through the day Tuesday as a weak short wave trough moves through the region.
1055 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will yield cooler weather, but still above normal temperatures through Tuesday.
As this feature moves across the northern Plains tonight, elevated moisture transport on the low level jet will nose into central Kansas toward 12z Tuesday morning resulting in modest instability and chance for a few showers/storms.
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 940 AM PDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will bring stronger deepening of the marine layer into the valleys on Tuesday.
For 12z Aviation discussion below A weak trough generated an increase in mid-level clouds overnight, along with a few sprinkles over parts of central and southern MN. Therefore highs, while still relatively close to normal values for mid-April, will be cooler. Expect highs to range from the lower 50s into central MN to lower 60s along the Iowa border. The forecast gets more active again tonight as a compact mid-level low/trough races from the northern Rockies across the Dakotas and across northern MN/WI on Tuesday.
Our temperatures this afternoon will continue to run warm, albeit a bit cooler at the coast with the sea breeze.
945 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows a compact upper level low with center currently crossing the Bitterroot range from ID to western MT. Band of precip wrapping around the front flank of the upper low is rotating north through N-central MT this morning with diffluent flow aloft supporting the most widespread precipitation across NW portions of the forecast area. As the upper low center tracks across the forecast area this afternoon, a more unstable cyclonic flow aloft will allow for a transition to convective showers to across much of the forecast are with greatest concentration and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms across SW MT.
703 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Rain-free, cooler weather will be with us both today and Tuesday, as high pressure builds down over the region from eastern Canada.
A ridge in the lowest 6k' of the atmosphere remains in place through the near term. This ridge brings another slug of drier air over southeastern portions of the forecast area today. Increased mid/upper level cloud cover from this activity over the Lower Mississippi river Valley will again lead to a west to east gradient in temps today, with highs ranging from the low 80s west of the Alabama/Mississippi River to upper 80s over eastern portions of the forecast area.
Attention then turns to a more potent Pacific trough located off the West Coast near 145W. Precip amounts should be generally less than a tenth of an inch, but some of the higher terrain may see 0.
A weak upper level trough was moving east across OK and central TX. This upper trough will remain well south of the CWA. the cooler highs in the upper 60s will be across the southeast counties where skies will remain mostly cloudy through most of the afternoon hours. Tonight as zonal flow increases across the central Rockies a lee trough will deepen across the high plains.
This was happening ahead of a cold front that was drifting into the region from Missouri.
918 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure ridge axis remains across the region and will continue Warm/Dry conds. Ridge axis will remain over the waters today then drift slightly northward on Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 61 76 59 / 70 60 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 58 75 59 / 60 60 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 75 59 / 70 60 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 52 73 52 / 70 60 40 40.
while a weak bubble of high pressure is in place further north across Iowa into northern Illinois. High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 70s. High pressure will bring clear skies and cool conditions tonight. As the high slides off to the east, southerly winds will develop across the region on Tuesday.
A similar situation may occur on Wed for the eastern counties, as moist southerly flow continues and temps warm back into the lower 80s.
somewhere near the Highway 20 corridor. So with the upper ridge moving in, temps will generally be cooler than yesterday by just a couple degrees. However, by mid to late afternoon or so the low over Wyoming will become better organized as the upper wave deepens over the Rockies.
High pressure will slide over Minnesota today setting up an easterly flow over eastern SD this afternoon.
Several weak vort maxes across AL are generating enough lift ahead of the sfc cold frontal boundary to support the development of some light shower activity across far north Georgia and southern Tennessee. Expect this coverage to increase as the day progresses as diurnal heating aids in destabilization of the lower troposphere. Progged thermal profiles have fairly low freezing level and marginal SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg so still thinking a few strong storms possible with small hail and strong winds as main threats. Slightly cooler expected Tuesday given aforementioned wedge but still set to reach above norms.
1202 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Cold front exits the region this afternoon with scattered showers ending. Adjusted sky and pops to account for current position of the cold front. Did a quick update to PoP with cold front just starting to push through our SE Ohio Counties. Cold front is just entering the Ohio Valley this morning and continues to slowly push to the southeast. Conditions should improve from west to east as weak high pressure builds in tonight.
1014 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A cold front has moved into central Virginia.
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 920 AM PDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will bring stronger deepening of the marine layer into the valleys on Tuesday.
The low-level jet is aiding the gradual southern expansion of the ongoing activity, but as this inflow weakens this morning, this expansion is unlikely to continue.
The severe threat remains low especially as CAPE will be lower (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg on the higher side) and 0-6 km shear will only be around 5-10 knots.
Severe weather chances will be on the low side today with weaker flow and disorganized nature of convection, but some brief marginally severe hailers certainly possible. Additional showers and isolated storms possible tonight across northwest Oklahoma in response to strong s/wv trough progressing across northern Rockies.
523 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly sliding south across southern SD and northeast WY, with high pressure in place over the Canadian Prairie provinces. Temps range from 20s across far northwest SD and the Black Hills to the lower 40s across south central SD. Highs will range from the lower 60s across far northwest SD and the higher BH to the mid 70s over far southwest SD. The best chances later this afternoon may end up being from far northeast WY into far southwest SD near developing weak trough/dryline.
A slow-evolving, expansive high pressure cell remains anchored over the subtropical western North Atlantic, and fresh easterly breezes are expected to persist across most of the service area this afternoon and tonight.
Isolated showers linger across SW Washington and NW Oregon this morning due to an upper level trough moving across the Pac NW. Meanwhile, a broader upper low well offshore will guide a series of disturbances into Oregon and Washington, keeping our weather unsettled through Tuesday.
Progged thermal profiles have fairly low freezing level and marginal SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg so still thinking a few strong storms possible with small hail and strong winds as main threats. Slightly cooler expected Tuesday given aforementioned wedge but still set to reach above norms.
Temperatures remained above freezing throughout western Nebraska, mainly in the upper 30s. A cold front had pushed through most of Montana into northern Wyoming. High temperatures were lowered today about 5 degrees due to faster progression of the cold front which has already exited the Black Hills. A closed upper low will move from southern Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba today, as the upper trough moves across the Dakotas. This will drive the cold front southeastward today. For tonight, the cold front will move swiftly southeast overnight, exiting Nebraska, and moving into northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. The highest pops from 30 to 40 percent. Lows tonight near 24 at Gordon and Valentine, to the lower 30s in southwest Nebraska and the far eastern zones.
Southwesterly low level flow with a warm front moving to the north of the area has lead to a warm and moist atmosphere for early November. The warm front will continue to advance further to the north on Sunday. Forecast highs will be warm for early November with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
502 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure will move east offshore overnight.
220 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure builds across Southeast Canada then into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, ridging down into the Mid Atlantic.
Another cold front will move south across the area on Sunday with the greatest impact and early timing affecting locations along/northwest of the Kansas turnpike.