Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This trend will continue for the next several days as the synoptic scale features (high to the southwest, broad trough across much of the U. The anomalously strong low pressure looks to remain parked over northern Canada, and the upstream Rex Block will keep the CWA locked under northwest flow.
/issued 921 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ Cool and stable conditions expected overnight as high pressure at the surface and weak northwest flow aloft prevail across the ArkLaTex. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures forecast to fall into the lower to middle 40s across much of the region.
332 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Surface analysis this morning shows low pressure centered in the west-central Dakotas with a warm front stretching eastwards into south-central MN, with a band of precipitation along the front lifting northeast along the front. Northwest upper level flow dominates the area through much of the upcoming week as a trough pivots across Canada, bringing cooler than normal temperatures and periodic rounds of light precipitation.
/issued 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ A shallow cold front will push across the area tonight and early Saturday stalling across south Florida and the Florida straits later in the day. in fact the U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Little change in temperatures as highs will remain in the low to mid 80s north.
An arctic cold front has dropped into MT cooling temperatures and dew points just below freezing this morning. Another area of snow develops across northern Nebraska Sunday night associated with a warm front lifting north. The warmer blended solution suggested lows in the 20s and 30s tonight, warmer than the guidance blend, and highs in the 40s Sunday. The high amplitude upper level pattern will steer a second major arctic high pressure system south through the high Plains and into Nebraska.
Another sunny day is on tap as high pressure slowly slides toward the Appalachians. Return flow on the back-side of the high will allow for southerly breezes to pick up later today, and with good mixing expected in the boundary layer, we should see high temps climb into the mid and upper 60s for many locations. Temperatures overnight will be a bit warmer compared to previous nights thanks to a slightly stronger pressure gradient keeping winds up. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, likely stalling out somewhere in the vicinity of the Ohio River Sunday evening.
VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure settles into the southern Appalachians. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 46 71 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 41 69 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 41 68 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 35 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 NC.
Today, surface and low level ridging to our east will bring warm, southerly flow to West Central Texas. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen as well (850 mb temperatures about 9-10 deg C higher this afternoon than yesterday afternoon), so expect pretty good warming today (highs in the low to mid 80s). Expect winds to weaken by 5-10 mph tonight, but still be somewhat breezy, with dewpoints in the low 60s moving in along with the continued warm southerly flow.
152 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and much drier air will filter in under Canadian high pressure with frost and freeze conditions expected across the mountains tonight and possibly Saturday night. As of 135 am: We are still on track to see the coolest air of the season over the mtns tonight as high pressure continues to build in from the TN Valley. The center of high pressure will meander past to the north and over the Mid-Atlantic region by the end of the day.
Today Through Sunday Generally quasi-zonal flow aloft to persist across the forecast area through the period even as mid-level heights slowly fall in response to deepening of a broad upper trough located over the north-central US. The lower elevations will see some gusty daytime winds as well, but these will not be as strong as those seen over the higher terrain. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 60s over the northern higher terrain to the lower 70s over the far south. While Sunday will be mostly cloudy across the entire region, low level southerly flow will bring warmer high temperatures to the entire forecast area, though the southern half of the forecast area will see the biggest difference in temps.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Weak surface convergence near the lower TX coastline, likely due to the old cold front located just offshore, is producing sct showers near the coast and offshore early this morning. The low level flow will shift back from the S-SE later today allowing for WAA to increase across the RGV and eroding out the low level stratus. Considering that this fropa was pretty weak and the returning low level flow will likely warm up temps pretty quickly, will lean closer to the warmer guidance indicated by the GFS and ECMWF. At this time, do not expect any Dense Fog Advisory as the low level NW flow will be a little too strong and dry to allow for prime fog formation conditions.
Decreasing cloud cover throughout the day will allow for temperatures to be roughly 10-20 degrees warmer than we were yesterday.
Weak upper level ridge offshore with a weather system moving over the top over the ridge into Western Washington Saturday night and Sunday.
This was resulting mostly clear skies, and with temperatures mostly in the lower 30s, frost was likely present in most places. Aloft, a couple of jet streaks will rotate around the upper low and bring an increase in troughing back south into the CONUS. This will support a cold front which will approach the JKL forecast area from the northwest by late Sunday.
226 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure through Sunday. High pressure in control and sliding eastward towards the mid Atlantic coast today/tonight. With the upper trough departing, flow turns zonal today and southwesterly tonight, and becoming more active just to our northwest, although plenty of dry air resides in the column. Low pressure system deepening over the Great Lakes with another strong cold front, but track will be north northeastward towards James Bay. Marginally warmer today, not as chilly tonight.
313 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 The challenge for today will be tracking the H7 upper low and determining the location of any potential banding. Ensemble members are becoming more aligned with the possibility that the low may not close off completely, leaving us with a system that will move a bit more progressively. Compared to previous model runs, QPF has generally been on a downward trend, mainly due to the slightly more progressive nature of the system, as well as the tendency towards a slightly weaker upper low. Additionally, ground temperatures remain near to above freezing for locations along and south of the I-94 corridor. Heading into Sunday, look for much quieter but cooler weather, with breezy northwest winds.
With a relatively dry subcloud layer, could see temperatures wet bulb sharply cooler along northern edge of precipitation.
Deepening low pressure to the north will bring gusty winds to near 30 knots at times to the northern AR higher terrain late this morning through this afternoon before subsiding near sunset. With the center of the ridge more over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, the likelihood of frost across northern Arkansas decreases. For Saturday, with the ridge to the east and an approaching storm system beginning to make progress across the Plains, srly winds will begin to increase across the region. Before widespread moisture can overspread the area ahead of an approaching cold front, fire weather concerns will develop. Portions of northern Arkansas will likely see highs in the lower 70s F with Td values in the upper 20s to lower 30s F.
1132 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Following a stretch of mild autumn days, expect a much cooler and damp end to the week with frost/freeze possible over most of Central PA Saturday morning, and perhaps again Sunday morning.
302 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. By later in the afternoon, winds will decrease as the center of the high shifts closer to the area with winds becoming light by tonight. Models indicate southwest flow aloft with a broad upper trough across the northern two-thirds of the conus and upper ridging building across the Southeastern States.
With plenty of sunshine, this will bring highs into the lower 70s across the region, but some upper 60s will linger in the north. Dry conditions will continue into tonight, but temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer thanks to some slowly increasing moisture. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s west to the lower 50s east.
This will result in strong gusty winds across southwest Wyoming southward into the High Uintas much of the day Saturday, with gusts remaining below High Wind Warning criteria.
Strong warm air advection, sufficient sunshine, and dry air will allow for high temperatures to reach the low to even mid 70s tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures for Sunday will be quite chilly behind the cold front with ample cloud cover, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 40s for most locations (low 50s as you get into the Ozarks).
Winds will be light to calm this morning, some out of the north before a switch to the south/southeast will occur through the afternoon as high pressure moves east. With plenty of sunshine, this will bring highs into the lower 70s across the region, but some upper 60s will linger in the north. Dry conditions will continue into tonight, but temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer thanks to some slowly increasing moisture. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s west to the lower 50s east.
VFR conditions with high pressure moving to the northeast.
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 The challenge for today will be tracking the H7 upper low and determining the location of any potential banding. Ensemble members are becoming more aligned with the possibility that the low may not close off completely, leaving us with a system that will move a bit more progressively. Compared to previous model runs, QPF has generally been on a downward trend, mainly due to the slightly more progressive nature of the system, as well as the tendency towards a slightly weaker upper low. Additionally, ground temperatures remain near to above freezing for locations along and south of the I-94 corridor. Heading into Sunday, look for much quieter but cooler weather, with breezy northwest winds.
The exception is ridging arcing from California to the Gulf of Alaska to the Arctic Sea. The GFS solution of bringing a large scale and cold trough back into the West is just to far from reality attm and ignored.
Flurries and fog were observed this morning in southwest North Dakota, fog should gradually mix out as high pressure builds in and winds shift. A cold front extended from southwest North Dakota into southeast Montana. Regional radar shows increasing reflectivities in this area where surface observations are near or below freezing. Cold high pressure builds today in the wake of the exiting low. Longwave trough persists over the central CONUS in the deterministic/ensemble guidance suite through the end of the forecast period.
402 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Early this morning, an upper trough was present over the eastern CONUS with west-northwest flow across the Central Plains. Increased southerly flow and WAA will boost highs into the low to mid 70s today ahead of the cold front. Frontogenetic lift and isentropic upglide could provide sufficient lift for showers north of the low before high pressure builds in Sunday evening.
550 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Current radar shows widely scattered showers across the area in a northwest flow regime ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest snow accumulation will be in the favorable upslope environment of the Bighorns, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through early Sunday morning. Central and southern Wyoming will likely remain warmer dry, with another windy day across southern areas.
948 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure is setup just to the east across West Virginia this morning. Most areas have warmed above freezing and therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire this morning. This was resulting mostly clear skies, and with temperatures mostly in the lower 30s, frost was likely present in most places. Aloft, a couple of jet streaks will rotate around the upper low and bring an increase in troughing back south into the CONUS. This will support a cold front which will approach the JKL forecast area from the northwest by late Sunday.
A cold front extended from southwest North Dakota into southeast Montana. Regional radar shows increasing reflectivities in this area where surface observations are near or below freezing. Cold high pressure builds today in the wake of the exiting low. Longwave trough persists over the central CONUS in the deterministic/ensemble guidance suite through the end of the forecast period.
446 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a broad trough covering much of the upper half of the US. As this low moves eastward, a strong cold front will quickly drop through the forecast area this morning. Additionally, expect a period of near-wind advisory criteria winds by mid-morning into the early afternoon behind the cold front. Ongoing rain and snow showers will continue today, with rain changing to snow as the colder air filters in behind the cold front. This transition to all snow will occur relatively early this morning across the higher terrain of the Black Hills and NE WY.
416 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Northwest flow aloft strengthens today, as short wave trough races eastward from the northern Rockies into the High Plains. Tonight, breezy w-nw winds persist into the evening before a cold front slides south through the plains after midnight. Intermittent disturbances will push dry cold fronts south into CO. Portions of the far eastern plains will likely dip below freezing once again overnight Sun night into Mon morning.
624 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. By later in the afternoon, winds will decrease as the center of the high shifts closer to the area with winds becoming light by tonight. Models indicate southwest flow aloft with a broad upper trough across the northern two-thirds of the conus and upper ridging building across the Southeastern States.
600 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Surface analysis this morning shows low pressure centered in the west-central Dakotas with a warm front stretching eastwards into south-central MN, with a band of precipitation along the front lifting northeast along the front. Northwest upper level flow dominates the area through much of the upcoming week as a trough pivots across Canada, bringing cooler than normal temperatures and periodic rounds of light precipitation.
We will keep a large scale hemispheric pattern in place that maintains a mean ridge position in the eastern Pacific and a broad mean trough position through much of the rest of the country. The ridge will dirty up with some weaknesses in the flow (like the one currently showing up well west of northern Baja), but as far as we're concerned we'll maintain a dry westerly to northwesterly flow at most levels.
A cold front has moved through and clear skies are expected today. In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight ridging will be over the region today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast. Winds will decrease by mid to late afternoon as the pressure gradient loosens around the high.
The general synoptic scale pattern over the next ten days will feature upper level troughing over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Dry cold fronts will occasionally move southward on the back side of the trough, and bring cooler air into western Kansas.
533 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Short Term (This Weekend): Surface analysis showing the high pressure over the AR/TN area.
Low level high pressure will shift from the southern Appalachians to the northeast into the Mid-Atlantic this evening with winds becoming more easterly to southeasterly later today.
At the surface, the center of a ridge will gradually build northeastward into the southern Appalachians through sunrise, maintaining calm winds and several more hours of nearly optimal conditions for radiational cooling in the local area. At this point, it appears that temperatures even in our deeper valleys will remain slightly above freezing, reducing the concern for Freezing Fog.
1055 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Currently - The Keys reside in a tightening pressure gradient due to a high pressure system over the eastern United States and an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea. Short Term Update - The high pressure system over the eastern United States will continue to tighten the pressure gradient across our area. High pressure over the eastern United States and an area of low pressure in the Caribbean sea is resulting in increasing northeast breezes across Keys waters this afternoon into tonight.
630 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure through Sunday. Currently below freezing here at the office. High pressure in control and sliding eastward towards the mid Atlantic coast today/tonight. With the upper trough departing, flow turns zonal today and southwesterly tonight, and becoming more active just to our northwest, although plenty of dry air resides in the column. Low pressure system deepening over the Great Lakes with another strong cold front, but track will be north northeastward towards James Bay. Marginally warmer today, not as chilly tonight.
Gusty northeast ridgetop winds will diminish today. Gusty ridgetop winds continue to relax across the area. Temperatures are range from near 50 on the coastal plain and in some interior valleys to over 70 along some of the inland ridgetops. Upper high pressure is presently centered near 40. 0W with a ridge extending SE along the central and S CA coast. A broad, deep upper trough covers most of the rest of the contiguous US. A cut-off low is located near 29. With the upper ridge weakening a bit and shifting SW, temperatures will begin to gradually moderate over the next several days.
/issued 533 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ Short Term (This Weekend): Surface analysis showing the high pressure over the AR/TN area.
VFR conditions prevail as a weak cold front moves south of our area today.
Temperatures in eastern New Mexico rebound today with high temperatures as much as 25 degrees warmer than yesterday. Another cold front will push into eastern New Mexico Sunday resulting in quite the temperature roller coaster. More of the same today with dry northwest flow persisting, although warmer conditions will allow for deep layer mixing and breezy to windy conditions by afternoon. Much warmer conditions will prevail across the eastern plains due in part to downslope winds, with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. A backdoor cold front will slide into the northeast and east central plains Sunday, bringing cooler conditions with below normal temperatures while the remainder of the area continues 5-15 degrees above normal.
This precipitation is moving east-southeast ahead of a Canadian cold front. Snow is expected to develop southward through this morning and impact the highway 2 corridor from Marias Pass to Hungry Horse and into the Flathead valley, the Seeley/Swan valley, MacDonald, Marias and Homestake passes, the vicinity of Butte and higher valley locations across southwest Montana. The cold front is expected to stall over the I-90 corridor today.
Early this morning, an upper trough was present over the eastern CONUS with west-northwest flow across the Central Plains. Increased southerly flow and WAA will boost highs into the low to mid 70s today ahead of the cold front. Frontogenetic lift and isentropic upglide could provide sufficient lift for showers north of the low before high pressure builds in Sunday evening.
1006 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure through Sunday. Currently below freezing here at the office. High pressure in control and sliding eastward towards the mid Atlantic coast today/tonight. With the upper trough departing, flow turns zonal today and southwesterly tonight, and becoming more active just to our northwest, although plenty of dry air resides in the column. Low pressure system deepening over the Great Lakes with another strong cold front, but track will be north northeastward towards James Bay. Marginally warmer today, not as chilly tonight.
Winds are around 10 mph, and these dry conditions will not last too long with moisture moving in overnight ahead of the weak trough and front.
115 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure through Sunday. A high pressure system will provide dry weather tonight.
Associated cold front has cleared the area to our south, with most locations in the 20s and 30s aside from far s cntrl SD. Should see a brief lull in activity early to mid Sunday as mid-upper trof axis and associated upper jet streak shift ewd and low-level baroclinic zone sinks farther south.
234 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Gusty west to southwest breezes this afternoon will taper quickly this evening as the lower atmosphere decouples. A cold front will approach late tonight out of the Texas Panhandle, passing through both Childress and Plainview near or shortly after daybreak, and from Lubbock southward by mid or late Sunday morning. Stronger surface cold advection appears will trail the initial wind shift, so some areas on the Caprock especially may yet climb slightly warmer than normal Sunday even with northerly breezes. Wind speed projections behind this cold front currently appear to favor modest wind speeds mostly in the 15 to 20 mph range.
High pressure will dominate the near term, being located off the DelMarVa and ridging stretching southwest through the southeast states.
The rest of the day will consist of clear skies as high pressure begins to elongate and shift eastward. High temperatures today will be much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure centers over the southern Appalachians. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 47 71 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 42 70 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 42 69 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 39 68 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0.
It will also be about 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow than today. Both the low relative humidity and the strong winds are making it a critical fire weather day across much of the area. Tonight, a cold front will move through the area. High pressure will start nosing in behind the front, advecting in much colder temperatures.
The rest of the day will consist of clear skies as high pressure begins to elongate and shift eastward. High temperatures today will be much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will bring VFR conditions to all terminals through the next 24 hours. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 71 54 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 70 51 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 69 51 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 68 46 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1135 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Updated forecast to add shower chances along a passing cold front later this afternoon into this evening. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon. An upper level low pressure system spinning over southern Hudson Bay will bring in multiple short waves with enough energy to produce occasional rain and snow chances throughout the first half of the week. The flow aloft becomes nearly zonal by mid week as the low moves off to the east.
1137 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Northwest flow aloft strengthens today, as short wave trough races eastward from the northern Rockies into the High Plains. Tonight, breezy w-nw winds persist into the evening before a cold front slides south through the plains after midnight. Intermittent disturbances will push dry cold fronts south into CO. Portions of the far eastern plains will likely dip below freezing once again overnight Sun night into Mon morning.