Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS THE OPEN RANCHLANDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH A MINOR SHORT DURATION FREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL CLD DECKS WILL STEADILY CLR LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL EFFECTS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT OVER LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MET NUMBERS BEING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MAV AND ECS COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER.
1242 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY.
1050 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING HAS HELPED GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME SE OK AND MUCH OF THE STATE OF AR. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER OVER OUR SW AR COUNTIES BUT PROFILES DO SUPPORT AT LEAST A -RA/-SN MIX SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR AR COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THIS BAND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALSO BEEN TWEAKED BASED ON CURRENT OBS AS WELL AS SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING TROF. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FINALLY BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SE KS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING. A DEEP EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE ACROSS MID-AMERICA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY-THU. INCREASING SE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE CHILLY WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING OVER FAR SE KS. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING FRI. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TALL/AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK. ALLOWING FOR A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY LATE WEEK-WEEKEND. AS AN EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOCAL AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING TODAY FROM THE HIGHS AROUND 70 AT SUNRISE.
EXPECTING A WARMER AND DRIER DAY OVERALL WITH WINDS STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPENING OF THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
906 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2015 Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the week under high pressure. High pressure remains over the region. A weak low pressure area moving towards British Columbia has helped to increase the marine layer along the coast up to around 3000 feet. During the morning the low clouds will likely spread northward and southward in the central valley. The areas near the periphery of the low clouds as it forms will likely have some dense fog overnight and in the morning. The ridge will flatten out as the low pressure area moves into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Slightly cooler temperatures will persist the next couple of days.
1203 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE A FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BIT COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WILL SEE OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AGAIN AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.
TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
248 AM CST WED FEB 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS PUSHED AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
235 AM MST WED FEB 18 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. YET REMAINING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WHILE STARTING TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A FEW DEGREE BOOST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AND NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER DESERTS.
344 AM CST WED FEB 18 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
BUT I DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AS WELL OVERNIGHT. A WEAK ANTICYCLONE AND SNOW COVER WILL ATTEMPT TO OFFSET WARMING. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN U.
1034 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2015 Upper level ridge with axis currently along the West Coast will gradually shift inland tonight while at the surface, high pressure over eastern MT slides off into the Dakotas. An upper level high pressure ridge remains over the West Coast and this is causing northwest flow aloft over Central Montana.
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES AS THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL AND WEST, WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE FRONT.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE (AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES) REMAINED JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN HALF WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH A MUCH MORE SHALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT.
301 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER REINFORCING "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY THUR WITH A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HIGH/LOW TEMPS MAY BE COLDER/WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE PREVIOUS SO ADJUSTED DOWN/UP A FEW DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES STILL REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ABOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION.
STILL SEEING SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. FIRST WAVE MAKES IT INTO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIDGES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE NORTH AND RIDGES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE WAVE. IN THE AXIS OF MAIN TROUGH.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE NORTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MAIN TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER.
410 AM PDT MON MAR 23 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL BRING COOLING.
SINCE THE 5H TROF AXIS IS STILL ALONG THE MS RIVER. BY THE AFTN THE 5H TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S AS WINDS/CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TUESDAY NIGHT.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRALIA MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPTURN IN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THOUGH IT COULD BE SLOW TO LEAVE IN THE EAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE 23. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A POTENT S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHWEST TONIGHT IF AIR TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW 32F AS MODELS SUGGEST.
650 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 COLD FRONT PASSED WITH LITTLE FANFARE YESTERDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 08Z. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER WAS ENTERING THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY.
1046 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COLD FRONT PASSED WITH LITTLE FANFARE YESTERDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 08Z. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER WAS ENTERING THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY.
320 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Cool Canadian high pressure across the area leading to below normal temperatures and light winds.
146 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Despite being just behind the shallow cold front, the thunderstorms have been able to generate within an area of dew points still near 70F and 30-35kt of effective bulk shear.
After initial pass of early shallow convection this morning, satellite imagery showing redevelopment of shallow cumulus build ups over the central mountains ahead of main trough axis and cold front. Breezy and slightly cooler temperatures are on tap for Tuesday, along with weak lingering precipitation again across the northeast corner.
Aloft we remain in north/northwest flow with a ridge centered over the western CONUS. I decided to stay on the higher end of guidance for highs tomorrow since I'm not too confident about how much cloud cover we may actually see, and highs have warmed up a bit over guidance today. A minor short wave looks to roll off the High Plains tomorrow evening.
This convection popped up due to steep low to mid level lapserates along with along with low level convergence in the vicinity of a cold front which is moving slowly southeast through the region. Think Tuesday will be very similar to today, although with a cooler start in the mid 50s to around 60. The steep low-mid level lapserates caused by the deep longwave trough overhead should help to destabilize the atmosphere enough for plenty of afternoon cu as well, but forecast sounding show a strong subsidense inversion starting at about 750mb which should keep a lid on any showers that try to develop.
The next 48 hours will be dry with light winds and temperatures slightly cooler than the seasonal average for early August. Early morning satellite data with RAP13 surface analysis showed an area of high pressure centered along the Red River Valley. Today temperatures will rebound into the low 70s, and scattered clouds will develop.
High pressure will move slowly to the east tonight and tomorrow, with winds shifting to the southeast. An upper level low centered near James Bay will fill a bit as the upper level ridge over the intermountain west begins to build.
otherwise high pressure centered over the wrn Gulf remains anchored over the region. Water vapor imagery continues to show troffing from the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley with a few embedded disturbances, the nearest of which is seen crossing wrn/cntl TX at this time.
12Z upper air analysis shows an anomalous, amplified trough aligned from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf. Normalized H50 height anomalies within the axis of the mean trof over Arkansas are some 2 to 3 standard deviations below the means. Water vapor imagery shows considerable darkening/drier air, over the Lower MS River Valley, spreading eastward into the western half of the local area.
An upper level trough will pass through Western Washington today bringing increased clouds, a slight chance for light showers and a few degrees of cooling. Dry conditions resume Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the area.
343 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Long wave upper trough remains in place across the eastern half of the CONUS. Forecasting afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and this may be underdone considering lack of convection and drier air mass. The trough will slowly move eastward and flatten through the second half of the week, with a gradually moistening column.
HRRR and NAMNest this morning both spreading some showers/ts this afternoon with the upper level trough still in place. Though the front and the more moist airmass are now pushing out of the area, an anomalously deep upper trough remains over the Mississippi Valley. This will help kick off mainly diurnal isolated convection today, with the greatest odds up in the Delta where somewhat better instability and greater deep layer moisture will exist under the upper trough axis.
As upper level ridging to our west begins to slowly shift in this direction, calmer conditions are expected for Tuesday, with highs ranging from about 96 to 104.
For Tuesday, the base of the upper level trough will rotate through the area and advect deep layer dry air into the region from the northwest.
138 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Periodic rain chances will continue through Tuesday under upper troughing, with drier air supported by building high pressure filtering back into the region by midweek. One exception should be the southeastern ridges, where precipitation chances should increase as a quasi- stationary boundary draped across MD and VA serves as a mechanism for increased convection this afternoon. A digging trough near the Pac. NW should amplify ridging centered near Manitoba, Canada. This should provide balanced jet support with an amplifying ridging on the eastern flank of the deepening Great Lakes low Tuesday, causing it to become cut off by Tuesday evening. The result will be a slow, eastward progression of the aforementioned cold front, with periods of showers and some tstms expected from west to east through the day Tuesday.
High amplitude mid to upper trough, extending from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf will lift north as it slowly progresses eastward and gets squeezed out by 2 ridges to our south. Upper ridge over the Atlantic builds westward as mid to upper trough lifts slowly north and flattens out into the weekend. Showers are already moving in and are expected to be in and out through the day as the low approaches from the south.
1138 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Hot weather will once again dominate the forecast headlines to start the week as a ridge of high pressure remains in place over central Arizona and southern Utah. Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain on the northern periphery of this ridge, resulting in general westerly flow aloft. This light westerly flow will help push our lingering monsoon moisture east of the Divide for today and tomorrow, resulting in a lower chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Still, a few isolated areas of convection are possible over the higher terrain of the Sawatch and San Juan ranges this afternoon. The southwestern ridge will break down slightly, resulting in a northwest component to upper-level winds.
Also, adjusted the high temperatures for this afternoon down a bit, given the extensive cloud cover. Temperatures will be cooler across the eastern Big Country and northern Heartland with highs in the lower 90s.
As for temperatures, the upper ridge remains the dominate feature; thus, afternoon highs, above those more usual, for early August, and mainly in the 100 to 104 range, look likely, for Tuesday. Models continue to move the center of the upper high, from the west, to a location, more or less, centered over Texas, by late this week. Thus, models indicate triple-digit afternoon highs will be common, with overnight lows a degree or two warmer than those more usual, for early August.
Dry high pressure will be in place today. As the high exits to the east on Tuesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will move into central SD in the afternoon.
1025 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Dry high pressure will be in place today. As the high exits to the east on Tuesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will move into central SD in the afternoon.
152 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure and a secondary low pressure system.
A cirrus deck has abated heating somewhat late this morning, but as this burns off expect temperatures to climb into the low 90s across the area.
The northwesterly flow has been funneling plenty of cooler air to the area much to the enjoyment to the central U. but ridging is expected to slowly build over the Great Plains over the course of the week and giving the area a warming trend.
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Upper troughing persists over the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon with Tropical Storm Isaias located off the South Carolina coast continuing to progress northeast along the eastern seaboard. Northwest flow aloft and a ridge axis maintain unseasonably cool and pleasant conditions over the forecast area for the next few days. Temperatures fall into the low 50s tonight; normal lows are around 70 for early August.
Gusty winds and not as hot today behind last night's cold frontal passage. High temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday.
The warmest low temperatures will be found across northern Door County where winds will be flowing over the warmer waters.
Here in West Texas, we are under the influence of subsidence both from the upper level high to our west as well as a boost behind the MCS off to our SE. Tomorrow looks to be warmer though most everyone should remain dry during the day. this around upper high centered across nrn Mexico west of El Paso. Could see some storms move off the higher terrain in NM and affect the SW Panhandle late.
255 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 As anticipated, another round of showers and thunderstorms have formed along the higher terrain with some convection drifting into adjacent valleys. Tuesday, more of the same as high pressure remains overhead.
A cold front will cross the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure will start to build in Tuesday night and then predominate through much of the rest of the week. Mid level trof over the Great Lakes to lift into southeast Canada with west-northwest flow developing over the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. As mid level ridge builds from the Rockies into the Plains a westerly flow will persist through mid week across the Ohio Valley.
Then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week with fair weather and comfortable temperatures. A thermal trough aloft is trying to push in from the north and west this afternoon which will increase instability. The thermal trough is associated with an upper trough that is moving in as well. This type of instability is already in place across the southern half of the forecast area due to a higher low level moisture content there (surface dew points in the lower 60s). A sharp upper trough axis extends south from a closed 500 mb low centered north of Lake Huron with vort lobes rotating through across Lower Michigan today into Tuesday.
High pressure building into the region from the west will lead to light winds overnight.
244 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and associated with a stationary front, instability axis and SW upper level flow ahead of an upper level trough, are expected to diminish this evening. The stationary front is expected to dissipate tonight as another weak cold front approaches and moves into the area Tuesday. The upper level trough looks to be less dynamic on Tuesday so the highly diurnal convection should be less strong than today with less overall coverage and is expected to dissipate Tuesday evening. BDL As Isaias works its way up the coast the synoptic scale holds a deep trough through the southeast with an upper level low across the northern great lakes.
A cold front will accompany the convection and turn winds to the west and northwest, bringing in cooler air for Tuesday. Flow turns northwest for Tuesday and energy will brush the southeast zones in the afternoon afternoon, so the east and the higher terrain will have a chance of convection Tuesday, otherwise it should be drier and cooler.
224 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in spectacular, fall-like weather to continue tonight into mid-week. Summer-like weather finally returns by the end of the work week as high pressure slides off to the east, and moisture streams back into the area.
As high pressure weakens in response to an area of low pressure developing across California and the Great Basin we can expect to see decreasing temperatures through the week. Otherwise, slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions will remain in place.
Pac NW wave will flatten the Rockies ridge today. As the western CONUS ridge rebuilds Tuesday, lingering showers/storms will continue shifting eastward as drier air moves in.
Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico, then track south southeast into the OK and TX Panhandles this evening and tonight courtesy of the continuing north northwest flow aloft resulting from upper level ridging across the southwest states and upper level troffing in the eastern states.
Very quiet today with high pressure over the region.
Northerly winds have already allowed waves to build into the 4-6 feet range and another push of stronger winds is expected this evening as cooler air spreads south and this will allow northerly winds to increase into the 30 mph over Lake Michigan building waves into the 7-10 feet range. highs are struggling to reach the upper 60s across northwest IL this afternoon while temps are climbing into the lower 70s further south. Further west if clouds do scatter out then lows may reach the lower 50s Tuesday morning. Highs likely only back into the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, the morning water vapor imagery depicts that the longwave trough axis has shifted E into Ern Ar/Ern LA, with a deep wedge of drier air having advected SSE into the region and Lower MS Valley, with forcing along/ahead of this trough axis expected to remain well E of the area as this trough continues sliding E into the SE CONUS. The short term progs suggests that this weak sfc front will continue to mix SE through much of the region today, although the accompanying H850 trough will lag the front a ways over SW AR/extreme NW LA/adjacent sections of E TX by afternoon.