Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
635 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 An upper level low pressure system will move south of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. A chance for showers will then linger through much of the week as the upper level low slowly drifts across the Tennessee Valley. A broad area of low pressure underneath of the low has resulted in the development of a low-level convergent boundary over the Ohio Valley that has been the focus for rainfall early this morning.
637 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will allow for continued dry and seasonable weather through the work week. Skies will be sunny to start the day with some cirrus debris increasing through the afternoon from the upper low over the Ohio Valley. Skies will once again clear from the north overnight as the upper low retrogrades southward. A dry and pleasant stretch of weather continues through the short term period as the area remains under the influence of upper level ridging.
Otherwise, warmer and drier conditions are expected across the interior through mid to late week, while periods of marine stratus impact coastal locations. An upper low was centered in the vicinity of Sacramento early Tuesday morning. Showers and deep-layer cloudiness have generally cleared in the wake of the low, though valley fog has developed across NWRN CA due to the onset of radiational cooling combined with moist soil conditions.
Layer is fairly thin so expect some sunbreaks across the lowlands by the afternoon hours. With a bit of sunshine, temperatures should top out in the low to mid 60s except for the 50s along the Coast. Not expecting much in the way of shower activity across the lowlands with hit or miss showers across the Cascades and possibly SW corner of the state. A brief break in precipitation is expected for most of the lowlands on Tuesday into early Wednesday.
602 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 (Today and tonight) The synoptic scale omega blocking pattern will continue keeping the Southern Plains under the ridge through the short term of the forecast. Meanwhile at the surface, a low lee of the Southern Rockies with a warm front stretched across northern Texas will continue to dig southward, gradually shifting our winds from the east to the northeast for tonight.
533 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 The cloudy, cool weather pattern will continue through Wednesday due to the slow moving upper level low currently over southern IL, just southeast of STL which will move southeastward through parts of KY and TN as it very slowly fills. The best coverage of showers should be during the afternoon with better instability near the low center with cold mid level temperatures. The best coverage of showers today should be across southwest IL, just northwest of the upper low. The high temperatures will continue to be below normal due to the low upper level heights, northerly surface winds, and the low level clouds inhibiting diurnal solar insolation. Prefer the cooler NAM model MOS guidance for high temperatures today and Wednesday and will go close to the 25th percentile for highs.
401 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 500 mb ridge over the region today.
738 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was drifting south. Much warmer weather is ahead this holiday weekend with chances for storms and highs in the lower to mid 80s. An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was drifting south. An upper level ridge will build north of the Ohio River and bring much warmer weather through the holiday weekend.
710 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure will continue to build into the North Country through mid week, providing our region with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Pleasant weather on tap for the North Country as high pressure noses down from Canada. Clouds will increase just a bit this afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain, as we see daytime mixing and a bit of lingering moisture, but overall expect mostly clear skies to prevail a good part of the next couple of days. Highs today will be in the mid 60s to around 70, turning a few degrees warmer for Wednesday under plentiful sunshine. Patchy frost will be possible tonight for portions of the Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks as sheltered valleys could drop into the lower to mid 30s.
1243 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Second verse same as the first! GOES water vapor is showing the stacked closed low shifting south over the past 6 hours, good news. Unfortunately, being on the north side of the low brings the moisture plume right into the forecast area.
A strong, late season low pressure system will bring windy conditions and areas of critical fire weather to northern Arizona again today. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include the lower elevations of Yavapai County which are expected to see gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Expect winds to decrease this evening as the cold front sweeps east of the area. A cool, dry airmass behind the front will result in freezing temperatures the next couple of nights. Expect another dry and windy day today as a cold upper low ejects through the Great Basin. Cooler temperatures are expected as well, due to lower hghts and a dry cold front. Some areas in the high country may see low temperatures below freezing tonight and Wednesday night.
325 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Lingering light rain showers ending - Dry weather returns - Significant moderating trend of temperatures - Lingering light rain showers ending KGRR/rgnl radar trends show light rain showers moving from ese to wnw across portions of our area as a result of low level easterly flow and the circulation around the upper lower over the western TN Valley region. A consensus of latest high res guidance suggests that a few light rain showers and sprinkles will linger late this afternoon and evening before ending as the upper low moves further se and away from our region. - Dry weather returns Dry wx will finally return late tonight and Wednesday as the upper low continues to move further away from our region.
Shower activity will continue today as the area of low pressure moves further into Nevada today.
1107 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure over Quebec will bring about a drying trend with fair and dry weather expected through a majority of this week.
By Wednesday evening, the west coast trough will be crossing the Rockies, deamplifying the ridge overhead. As such, thunderstorms are expected to develop near and along a cold front across eastern Wyoming down through eastern Colorado.
High pressure centered over Quebec will build south and crest across the area Wednesday.
1106 AM MDT Tue May 19 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the northern plains with deep upper trof just inland the west coast. At the surface, gusty southerly winds continue with tight pressure gradient between upper midwest ridge and lee trof. Today will be the warmest of the week with thermal ridge overhead, Widespread highs in the 80s, except a little cooler in the higher terrain of the Black Hills and our far eastern zones. Staunch cap will remain in place through the afternoon, but ejecting short wave from western trof could be enough to allow some storms to move into our far western zones during the evening. Wednesday still on track to be an active severe wx day as negatively tilted trof lifts northward.
233 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Large high pressure over Quebec will bring a warming trend with fair and dry weather expected through a majority of this week.
231 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Weak ridging east of the Bahamas extends northwestward between Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic coastline. To the north, a large upper low continues to spin over western Kentucky with associated troughing extending south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, sharp ridging extends from Texas northward through the western Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. This ridge closes off into a closed upper high by late Wednesday and will be located over the Great Lakes region.
149 PM PDT Tue May 19 2020 A trough of low pressure over California will provide another cooler rest of the day with gusty winds across the mountains and deserts with the potential for light showers in the mountains this afternoon into early tonight.
Temperatures are not really cooler behind the front, but they are more moist with surface dewpoints in the 60s. 07 (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday) By Wednesday night, a broad trough will build in across the western US.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): A mid to upper level ridge will remain parked over deep south Texas through much of the short term courtesy of an omega blocking pattern. Subsidence aloft from the 500mb ridge will result in above-normal temperatures and no rain chances through Wednesday night.
Highs tomorrow should be a few degrees "cooler" than today considering a more southerly wind component and lower H85 temps.
1234 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Southward sagging low pressure will maintain shower chances over parts of the region through the week. Cut-off low pressure continues to remain stagnant over the Tennessee Valley. Cool temperature will continue until the low propagates eastward. Accompanying the cut-off low, associated precipitation will move over the region and continue shower chances, with the best forcing and highest probability of precipitation still west/southwest of Pennsylvania. Cooler temperature will continue in the short term. A tight pressure gradient between the low to the S, and high pres to the N will maintain Ely wind with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Periodic restriction potential is expected Wed night thru Fri as the low drifts N and gradually fills.
/issued 1125 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ Latest manual surface analysis shows our backdoor cold front near a Sulphur Springs.
Overall synoptic pattern places a ridge over the Plains, between a cutoff low over the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and a western trough, with the axis over the Great Basin. The ECMWF and to a lesser extent, the GFS indicate a cooling trend with 850 mb temperatures for today over the past few model runs, hence lowering our high temperatures for today to the lower to mid 70s for the tri- cities, keeping our highs in the 70s for the entire CWA. Lows in the lower 50s tonight look appropriate. The blocking pattern persists, hence trending the arrival of precip later.
331 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Deep cut off low pressure centered over southwest Kentucky/northwest Tennessee will drift southeast into eastern Tennessee tonight. Meanwhile, the next upstream longwave trough over the western CONUS will continue moving slowly east, squeezing the longwave ridge over the Great Plains between it and the low over Tennessee. The northern portion of the ridge wraps itself anti-cyclonically around the Tennessee low Tuesday into Tuesday night, and gets pinched off between the two troughs by Wednesday morning.
This pattern will be a concern on Wednesday, as well, with areas across the east potentially cooler once again due to stratus cover. High pressure still dominates aloft dragging up some warmer temperatures. At the sfc, an area of low pressure will remain over the Rockies. The gradient between this low and high pressure to the east is generating some breezy, gusty southeast winds that will continue through Wednesday. A weak wave is expected to head slowly east across western South Dakota initially after ejecting out of northern Rockies upper low, but strong northerly flow will slow its eastward progress and also limit upper forcing to a narrow axis which is expected to extend up and down the Missouri valley.
239 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure over Eastern Canada will keep our weather quiet and seasonable through the week. A stacked low pressure system will meander into the Tennessee Valley over the next 36 hours. In the meantime, high pressure over Eastern Canada will push cooler air into NY and PA Wednesday morning. Temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 40s tonight, then rise into the middle 60s on Wednesday. Wednesday night will be cooler, with the potential for spotty frost over our eastern forecast area.
Previous discussion: Low pressure over northern California will slowly lift across the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies over the next few day. Wednesday the surface trof moves east as the upper low lifts into western Montana.
Water vapor satellite imagery and h5 heights show that the closed low has drifted toward Kentucky. The surface map showed the ridge of high pressure building in toward KMSP with lower dewpoints in the 30s. heights are forecast to lower with the approaching longwave trough/closed low over Nevada. This closed low lifts northeast across Idaho.
1256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 The cloudy, cool weather pattern will continue through Wednesday due to the slow moving upper level low currently over southern IL, just southeast of STL which will move southeastward through parts of KY and TN as it very slowly fills. The best coverage of showers should be during the afternoon with better instability near the low center with cold mid level temperatures. The best coverage of showers today should be across southwest IL, just northwest of the upper low. The high temperatures will continue to be below normal due to the low upper level heights, northerly surface winds, and the low level clouds inhibiting diurnal solar insolation. Prefer the cooler NAM model MOS guidance for high temperatures today and Wednesday and will go close to the 25th percentile for highs.
245 PM MDT Tue May 19 2020 Sunny skies across the entire Tri State area this afternoon as high pressure dominates the region's wx. Temperatures are currently ranging from the 70s into the lower 80s. The amplified trough/boundary along the Front Range will be the focus for another round of storms.
/issued 1020 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ A few light showers are beginning to develop, mainly over West Tennessee, as temperatures warm and the upper level low slowly sinks South tracking just East of the Mississippi River. The remainder of the Midsouth should climb into the low to middle 70s. Latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows a compact 560mb upper level low spinning over southern Illinois. This low is progged to slowly sag south into the Mid- South this afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon, mainly near the Tennessee River, as upper level lapse rates steepen due to cooler temperatures aloft. The pesky upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week. This will translate to cooler than normal temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
Clouds and cool temps will hold on though thanks to the extensive cloud shield surrounding the low center.
Given the strong winds aloft associated with the polar front jet stream, expect potential LLWS could exist for the higher elevation airports but not confident enough to include in TAFs.
1019 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Low pressure will linger just east of Illinois today, and even on Wednesday. Low pressure churning over W-SW Indiana early this morning will move very slowly to the S-SE through tonight. Various spokes of energy rotating around the low will be foci for scattered showers today and into this evening.
A high amplitude mid level ridge along with impressive thermal ridging is leading to the very hot temperatures being seen today. The mid level ridge begins to break down Wednesday as the trough over the western U. A weak cold front will enter the area from the northeast Wednesday morning, but will likely move back north by afternoon.
443 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 The period will begin with upper level low still churning across the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Today-Tonight: With an upper level ridge -- and pronounced subsidence inversion /cap/ -- over the Central High Plains, dry conditions are anticipated to persist across the majority, if not all, of the Tri-State area. as a deep upper level trough (currently invof the Pacific Coast) progresses slowly eastward into the Intermountain West -- flow aloft backs to the S-SSW -- and southeasterly low-level flow strengthens on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee trough/cyclone. Thu-Thu night: Given that the Tri-State area will be situated between a deamplifying ridge (to the east) and cyclonic flow aloft (to the west), and that widespread upstream convection may significantly alter the thermodynamic environment and low-level height/wind fields over the region -- there is low confidence in sensible weather conditions in this period.
Upper level ridging continues to control the weather pattern across south Central Texas. However, this is going to be changing within the short term forecast period as the upper level ridge weakens.
A few light showers are beginning to develop, mainly over West Tennessee, as temperatures warm and the upper level low slowly sinks South tracking just East of the Mississippi River. The remainder of the Midsouth should climb into the low to middle 70s. Latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows a compact 560mb upper level low spinning over southern Illinois. This low is progged to slowly sag south into the Mid- South this afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon, mainly near the Tennessee River, as upper level lapse rates steepen due to cooler temperatures aloft. The pesky upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week. This will translate to cooler than normal temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
210 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was drifting south. Much warmer weather is ahead this holiday weekend with chances for storms and highs in the lower to mid 80s. An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was drifting south. An upper level ridge will build north of the Ohio River and bring much warmer weather through the holiday weekend.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Nearly blocked synoptic pattern over the conus today as an upper level ridge builds over a closed low centered near the Ohio River valley. Main forecast theme over the next several days will be more stratus cloud cover as the aforementioned closed low continues to wrap low level moisture back into the state beneath relatively weak flow aloft.
324 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Visible satellite this afternoon shows a broken deck of low level clouds across the region as an upper-level cut-off low is situated over southwestern Kentucky that is very slowly moving towards the southeast. A similar, albeit slightly warmer, day is in store for Wednesday as the upper level low becomes situated under a rex block to our east. This will lead to the low retrograding across Tennessee and Kentucky, resulting in lingering areas of cloud cover and some isolated sprinkles and light showers throughout the day tomorrow.
Lake breezes will cause temperatures near Lake Superior to top out in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
/issued 231 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020/ Weak ridging east of the Bahamas extends northwestward between Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic coastline. To the north, a large upper low continues to spin over western Kentucky with associated troughing extending south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, sharp ridging extends from Texas northward through the western Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. This ridge closes off into a closed upper high by late Wednesday and will be located over the Great Lakes region.
954 AM PDT Tue May 19 2020 A trough of low pressure over California will provide another cooler day with some gusty winds across the mountains and deserts and even a chance of some light showers for the mountains this afternoon into early tonight.
226 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure over Eastern Canada will keep our weather quiet and seasonable through the week. High pressure will nose into the region breaking up some the more persistent cloud cover around early this morning. The high pressure system continues to nose in through Wednesday with remaining clouds slowly clearing out.
Rain chances tonight and Wednesday will remain confined to central Louisiana in the vicinity of a cold front edging into this area. Feature associated with a cyclone now advancing south into the Tennessee valley where it is expected to stall.
308 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Precipitation from the upper level low has underperformed so far today. Will still maintain low rain chances this afternoon, mainly across West Tennessee as the upper low sinks closer to the area. Overnight, the low is expected to weaken slightly as it turns to the East tracking along the Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee State lines.
A Weak cold front will slide south to near KABI, and may help initiate an isolated storm late this afternoon. At KABI, passage of a backdoor cold front tonight is expected by 05Z. Patchy low cloud development will be possible late tonight across the Big Country, with expectations at this time for the low cloud field to stay north of KABI prior to 12Z. The short term high resolution models all indicate an 850mb thermal ridge will dominate much of West Texas this afternoon, with temperatures, over West Central Texas, mainly around 30 Celsius. Plus, flow from the southeast will become more dominate, at 850mb, and this will help prevent the thermal ridge from expanding into West Central Texas, from the west; this in turn will help produce cooler temperatures, most notable much cooler afternoon highs.
355 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Large high pressure over Quebec will bring a warming trend with fair and dry weather expected through a majority of this week.
On caveat may be what the GFS is doing with developing convection to our west across the higher terrain.
1228 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Low pressure will linger just east of Illinois today, and even on Wednesday. Low pressure churning over W-SW Indiana early this morning will move very slowly to the S-SE through tonight. Various spokes of energy rotating around the low will be foci for scattered showers today and into this evening.
1125 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Latest manual surface analysis shows our backdoor cold front near a Sulphur Springs. Weak cold front will bring some 5kft clouds, however, with a few tstms possible this aftn and overnight.
301 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 The stretch of nice weather continues across the North Country as high pressure remains anchored across eastern Canada.
How things play out with the lower stratus will largely dictate the weather today--especially for thunderstorm formation this afternoon.
246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Vertically stacked area of low pressure over western Kentucky continues to wrap low clouds back across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.
Medium Influence of the low to our southeast is expected to gradually wane. High pressure builds in through Wednesday. Onshore flow will keep things cooler in the east on Wednesday, however inland areas will get a nice boost with more in the way of May sunshine expected. The influence of the high will linger into Wednesday night.
219 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020 219 PM CDT Even after several days we still aren't quite rid of our pesky upper low, with its influence still being felt today as it continues to slowly drift southward out of southern Illinois. Carlaw 219 PM CDT As the cut-off low pressure system mentioned above stalls in the Ohio River Valley and ridging builds northward into Canada (e.
1206 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 A closed upper low will meander over the Tennessee Valley through much of this week, as high pressure builds across New England.
149 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Aviation - Scattered showers today - Mostly dry the rest of the week - Scattered showers today Upper low begins to move south today as rex block develops.
This next system, triggered by a developing low pressure system across the northern Rockies, will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the region as well.
Despite continued cloudiness, modest cold air advection will drop temperatures near current dew points in the low to mid 50s.