Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING AND MILD NIGHTS.
RIDGE OVERHEAD. UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FINALLY DEPART THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE WEST MID-ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL THEN STAY BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION.
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AREA BALANCES BETWEEN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS IN THE FORECAST OF ANY EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS AS THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL-DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXES AS A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS OSCILLATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CURRENT TROUGH POSITION. EXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS AND STORM POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW. SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH 590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S.
THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE HAS RESULTED IN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION.
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WARM AND A BIT MUGGY CONDITIONS AT 2 AM DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AND UPPER RIDGING. AREA TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOWS RIDGING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE. AREA DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.
13/MH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
ON WED AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR TX. ON THU AN UPR TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE CENTRAL U. THE CHANGE ON SAT IS THAT THE UPR TROF OVR THE PAC NW AND ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO MOVE AND MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT AFTERNOON. ON SUN THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE MSTR STREAM INTO CO GETS CUT OFF.
UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECITON TIED TO IT IS TRYING TO LIFT A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
/issued 326 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ Upper ridge centered over SE TX this morning extends west across the region. This ridge will remain over the area through the week. Late in the week an upper trough will move in off the NW coast but will do little to displace the ridge. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 90s for the Permian Basin. Precip chances will continue to favor the higher elevations.
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THANKS FOR THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS GOES TO A WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND AN ASSOCIATED TROF XTNDS INTO NRN CA AND SHARPENS UP A BIT. THE LOWER HGTS WILL LIKELY KNOCK ANOTHER 1 OR 2 DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS BUT OTHERWISE BOTH WED AND THU WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN.
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific Northwest. As the clouds from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with highs climbing into the low 90s.
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER WESTERN CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW SOME MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW IMPACTING WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE CASCADES TODAY BUT OVERALL LOOKS DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MORNING'S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING PRESENTS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AND WARMER AIR ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 587 DM. GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE RIDGE AND IS SHOWING ITS WARM BIAS ON 2M TEMPS AGAIN. WITH THE OTHER MODELS ADVERTISING A NOTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THANKS TO THE CURRENT VORT THAT GETS CUT OFF.
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF.
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
A change is in the works, though, as a much cooler airmass drops down with a Gulf of Alaska trough.
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 With high pressure remaining in control across the southern plains, the weather will remain very consistent and uneventful through the upcoming holiday weekend. A weak cold front will approach the northern periphery of the forecast area by next Tuesday.
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
DEW POINTS SPIKED INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCALES AT MIDDAY. WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW AND EVEN MID 70S IN SPOTS. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CROSSING WESTERN/CENTRAL SUPERIOR.
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING.
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL GENERALLY CALL FOR LOWER POPS WELL INLAND (WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE) AND HIGHER POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE (WHERE BOTH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE). IT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WARMER WELL INLAND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND FEWER STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS.
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Low pressure aloft is seen over central Indiana, and it's related to convection we see narrowly clipping our northeastern counties and just beyond. Models depict this low circulating/drifting slowly southeastward with time. Upper Heights gradually rise as well with time, with strong synoptic scale ridging building in from the west.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS SAVE FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
A DEEP MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST BROUGHT A HEALTHY DOSE OF COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A modest increase in cloud cover, especially in the southeast and into west central Arkansas is expected later this afternoon as the upper low in southeast Texas continues its slow approach. /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ An upper ridge will dominate the weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas at least through the Labor Day weekend. A persistent weakness underneath the ridge may result in isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas the next few days but daily coverage will likely remain below 10 percent.
417 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. YET INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE AIR MASS LOFT BEGINS TO COOL.
Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 70s, but a few lows in the 60s will be possible in southern valley areas.
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SWLY BOTH WED AND THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BY FRI LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ON SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH SWLY FLOW STILL OVER THE AREA. 50 INCHES SO TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUN THE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
116 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Low pressure aloft is seen over central Indiana, and it's related to convection we see narrowly clipping our northeastern counties and just beyond. Models depict this low circulating/drifting slowly southeastward with time. Upper Heights gradually rise as well with time, with strong synoptic scale ridging building in from the west. Highs will generally be in the lower half of the 90s.
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND. AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH COOLER.
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
120 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN TX. THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER SW CA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW. WITH THE LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WESTERN CWA. LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOTED FROM INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OZARKS. AM EXPECTING A HOT AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.
An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this morning. Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up and will suppress overall precipitation chances. The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains.
325 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTE WAS JUST OFF SHORE NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN COAST OF CANADA AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE US. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
A weak cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air Wednesday along with a chance for showers and gusty winds. A cooler and showery weather pattern will linger over the region late week and into the weekend.
320 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN. WITH ANCHORING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE NE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL NUDGE NORTH TNGT.
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Generally quiet weather continues for the rest of the week with a persistent upper level trough over the West Coast and downstream ridging over the eastern U. This will keep the primary flow of Pacific moisture and precipitation chances streaming across the southwest states and into the High Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE LIFT AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT. WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
450 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COOLER DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPR-LVL TROUGH. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER TNT AND WED POST-FROPA. OWING TO WRAP-ARND MOISTURE WITH THE UPR TROUGH. AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SEWD FROM S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN LKS RGN.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE RIDGE FROM WESTERN RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES.
512 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THE EASTERN COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS. A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRIP THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF THIS MORNING. ANY EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY OVER FAR ERN SXNS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A COOLER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GRIP THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15-20F COOLER THAN TODAY. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT WITH A NW BREEZE ADDING TO THE RELATIVE CHILL.
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BAY AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
ACROSS THE SOUTH STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS NUMBERS WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED THE MIDSOUTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.
351 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS END THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN FROM THE WSW AS WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER. LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE FLAT RIDGE COMBINED WITH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT SHOULD REBOUND NICE ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES THAT WILL EJECT A CHUNK OF ENERGY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING DIMINISHING WINDS. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH EVIDENCE ON RADAR OF A BOUNDARY LAYER TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY. SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRONOUNCED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND HANDLED WELL BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.
WE SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE ANOTHER BREAK TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. THE WEAK RIDGE HOLDS TOMORROW. THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES THRU THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. AS ONE UPPER LOW AFTER ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH THE WEST.
402 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAIN STATES AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY SUNRISE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SE MO AND S IL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
300 AM PDT Tue May 19 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California.
303 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAIN STATES AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
445 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COOLER DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPR-LVL TROUGH. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER TNT AND WED POST-FROPA. OWING TO WRAP-ARND MOISTURE WITH THE UPR TROUGH. AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SEWD FROM THE S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN LKS RGN.
WEAK RIDGING EXISTS OVER MT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS COURTESY OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DRAWING COOLER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH REASONABLE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WILL BREAKDOWN AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY.
A shift to a cooler and more unsettled pattern is expected for the upcoming holiday weekend.
656 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANTICIPATE SHORELINE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S BY EARLY EVENING.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER AREAS EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT.
252 AM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.