Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Arctic high pressure building in behind the snow system will entrench itself across our region for the entire week. Snowfall totals still look on track, with south of I-70 probably going to end up near the lower end of their ranges and far northern forecast area likely approaching the higher end of their ranges, and advisory is looking good. As the upper trough continues to amplify as it moves into Indiana. In these southern counties ground temperatures should be above freezing until late afternoon so roads will become mainly slushy. Temperatures will remain below freezing today along and north of the I-70 corridor while locations south of there will reach the mid 30s before falling back to freezing before sundown.
For Christmas day moisture increases in the 850-700mb layer behind a back door cold front through 18z generally from Yuma to Hill City. A trough will be centered over eastern Canada and ridge along the Pacific west coast, with the central CONUS stuck under northwest flow aloft.
High pressure over the CWFA this afternoon with sunny skies. Pretty windy out west by Arlington with gusts in the low 50s being reported. Given the higher snow totals, decided to upgrade the Advisories we had for the mountains to warnings.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and generally mild conditions through the remainder of the month. Weak high pressure off the west coast will allow mid and high level clouds to stream across the area through the day.
As snow comes to an end this evening across central Indiana, Arctic high pressure will begin to push into the area, which will bring largely dry but much colder weather for the bulk of the week.
Weak SFC boundary/upper trough axis to swing across the mid-south into this evening. CAA bringing precip type into question late today but by tonight any lingering precip expected to be freezing/frozen in nature.
Much drier air in the lower/mid levels will linger across the area through Monday afternoon while an increase of moisture in the upper levels remains associated with a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the Northern Rockies into the high plains of western Nebraska. Deepening low pressure across eastern Colorado will set up a southerly flow across southwest and much of central Kansas Monday while an approaching cold front from the north drops down into northwest and north central Kansas.
Surface analysis early this morning shows a southward-sagging cold front draped over northern MN, extending westward into ND and southern Saskatchewan, associated with a low pressure center just north of Lake Superior. Arctic high pressure resides in northwest Canada, starting to slide southeast behind the front. Aloft, the pattern of deep NOAM trough to the east and a southwestern NOAM ridge will place the Upper Mississippi River Valley solidly in northwest flow. The cold front will slowly drop south across the WFO MPX coverage area today, bringing with it areas of flurries and snow showers mainly this afternoon through tonight.
949 AM PST Sun Dec 24 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure and light offshore breezes will bring fair conditions and near normal temperatures through mid week. Dirty ridge aloft allowing plenty of high clouds through but maintaining weak offshore flow and dry conditions the next few days.
Temperatures are running several degrees cooler than this time yesterday as a result. High pressure rebuilds over the area for Christmas day with dry weather continuing through the rest of the week as systems are deflected into the Pacific Northwest.
There is a slight chance of sprinkles or flurries across extreme north GA this evening but no accumulation is expected except for maybe a dusting and in the higher elevations.
Light and variable winds and VFR conditions prevail south of a cold front moving into South Central Texas this afternoon. MVFR cigs continue through Christmas day with some cigs approaching IFR, mainly near KBRO the coastal areas with a coastal trough indicated to develop with light rain and drizzle forming. A cold front is expected to move through deep south Texas later this evening and overnight resulting in a slight uptick in northerly winds and some low clouds. Another cold front is expected to move through deep south Texas by late this evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s across the ranchlands to the mid 50s at the beaches.
224 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 This Christmas Eve brought an early day cold front complete with gusty northerly winds and chilly temperatures.
Broad cyclonic upper tropospheric flow will be firmly in place Christmas morning with a Canadian high pressure ridge building southward across the High Plains. This ridge dominates the surface weather pattern through midweek, bringing a continued influx of cold Canadian air into the region. The "warmest" day of the week looks to be Christmas day, when a warm front briefly lifts into the area before being suppressed by the strengthening ridge.
249 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Mainly clear skies and cold temperatures were found across the region at 20Z with a high pressure ridge axis stretching from western Canada into the southern plains.
Weak SFC boundary/upper trough axis to swing across the mid-south into this evening. CAA bringing precip type into question late today but by tonight any lingering precip expected to be freezing/frozen in nature. MVFR/IFR conditions expected to persist well into the night while a weak sfc boundary and upper trough axis pass.
300 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Transition for this Christmas Eve as Arctic cold front continues to approach. Already seeing some convective looking snow showers forming in parts of the region as weak short waves rotate into the area within larger upper trough.
The strong and gusty winds will cause blowing of the higher snow ratio snowfall.
The weather for the rest of the day will feature warm and humid conditions for the end of December as the area resides within the thermal ridge ahead of an approaching cold front. All of west-central Florida should then enjoy a dry Monday with temperatures back toward seasonable levels as a cooler and drier airmass migrates in from the north. After midnight as a cold front approaches from the north. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to gradually shift east as a cold front approaches from the northwest through the afternoon.
The best forcing with this feature looks to pass from west central to southern MN this evening (a bit farther southwest of earlier progs), so have included the highest POPs there, with 20 POPS elsewhere.
The highest amounts from last night are keeping temperatures from rising and highs could struggle to reach 20 degrees this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will drift across the forecast area tonight.
A cold front continues on a southward track towards the Coastal Bend.
Snow showers are likely tonight as a cold front moves across the area.
TRI should continue to be VFR for several hours this afternoon with downsloping helping to prevent the low clouds near the terminal. As low pressure approaches tonight, should see cloud cover increase across the entire area with MVFR expected at all sites. Clouds begin to clear out behind the cold front late tonight and early Monday morning.
Some patchy fog/freezing fog being observed in some areas as well. Primary fcst highlight/concern wl be a fast moving upper lvl trof that wl sweep thru the FA today. Fcst temp profiles indc some freezing drizzle/flurries possible where sub freezing air persists in the lowest lvls.
Winds remain gusty over the higher elevations as well, which will likely continue to produce areas of blowing snow through the morning. Over the plains Mon, cold air will gradually retreat eastward, with warmest air in the lee of the eastern mountains while cooler air lingers near the KS border. Cold front then sloshes back south late Mon afternoon/Mon night as wave passes, with shallow cold air mass banked up against the eastern mtns once again.
Afternoon highs on the lower side of forecast values due to slight northwest breeze and snow cover limited the effects of insolation. Highs reach into the upper 20s near the KS/NE still held down by snow on the ground and into the low 30s near central and east central KS where slight return flow develops.
114 PM PST Sun Dec 24 2017 A lack of appreciable weather will continue through the remainder of the holiday season as ridging dominates along the south coast. Dry weather and pleasant temperatures on Christmas will transition to more dry weather with slightly warmer but still agreeable temperatures to end the week. A low amplitude upper level ridge was bringing northwesterly flow to the mid and upper levels, with moisture above 500 mb producing a few wispy cirrus. Upper level ridging will remain in control through Christmas Day. A weak upper level trough will cruise over the ridge on Boxing Day, with little to no impact on our local weather. Temperatures will trend upward to end the week as a low amplitude ridge (near 585 dm at 500 mb) is forecast to develop along the SoCal coast.
Broad upper level trough and associated sfc reflection weak low will move east of the area tonight. Meanwhile, very cold air behind the cold front will likely transition the pcpn from light rain to light snow. Abundant low level moisture will allow for higher snow accumulations over the highest peaks of our northeast mountains. Generally, expect a coating of snow over the lowlands ranging up to 5 inches at the highest peaks by 14Z Monday.
Expect fair weather with above average temperatures through the holiday weekend as high pressure remains positioned along the west coast. High pressure remains located off the California coast with troughing from the Rocky Mountains eastward.
Occasional high clouds can be expected through the week, though high pressure will generally prevail, resulting in a continuation of the relatively warm conditions. Weak ridging is apparent across northern Mexico and stretches up into southern California. This is keeping most of the weather north of us, riding over the ridge affecting mostly the Pacific northwest.
A closed low was located over southern portions of Hudson Bay with a broad trough of low pressure extending south into the mid Missouri Valley and further south to eastern Texas. Ridging aloft extended up the west coast of the United States, north northwest into the Yukon of Canada.
1247 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Hydro Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley will bring snow to Lower Michigan today, then arctic air will bring cold temperatures and lake effect snow showers through much of this week.
Northern Missouri will see the highest totals near 3" with isolated 4-5" possible as that area will see the longest duration of snowfall along the mid level frontogenesis region and a more W-E orientation and movement to the system. The southern portion of our CWA is going to be more effected by the lower area of frontogenesis closer to 850hPa and a more SW-NE oriented boundary moving quickly from W to E.
307 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 (Tonight and Christmas Day) A cold front quickly swept south through the area this morning into early afternoon, resulting in much cooler temperatures across west central Texas this afternoon. Tonight, as winds become light and variable, and a cooler air mass in place, expect lows to drop into the 20s across most of the area. Tomorrow, expect winds to quickly turn back to the south, as lee troughing quickly re-establishes itself. That, along with mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to recover nicely by the afternoon hours into the low to mid 50s, with a few readings in the upper 50s also possible.
A cold front moving through the area today has resulted in gusty NE winds at all terminals, with FROPA imminent at FST at issuance. /issued 337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017/ Currently we have westerly winds across the region, keeping overnight temperatures much warmer than what we saw yesterday morning. Winds will begin to shift to the north/northeast later this morning as the next cold front moves through.
A broad upper trof will be in place over the area.
Digging trough aloft advancing from the mid Mississippi Valley and rapid cyclogenesis moving northeastward from the southern Appalachians brings the next round of precipitation after a brief reprieve during the first half of today. Have added mixed precipitation on the front end after 20Z for the mountains given the above freezing air off the surface, but no freezing rain in place. Cold air spills in rapidly in the wake of the newly formed cold front, thus beginning a rather chilly period that will persist through the entire 7 days. The 850mb thermal trough looks to pass around noon which should herald the end of any flakes flying.
While the deepest moisture will remain to our north, there will likely be enough in the low levels to squeeze out a few hundredths of an inch, mainly across our north, with light accumulations of snowfall (<0.
The upper trough will move overhead Christmas morning (Monday) with even the lower central CO valleys having a chance for snowfall. Christmas Day and evening will not be a good time to travel over the high mountain passes through the northern and central CO mountains.
Because of the low moisture, precip amounts expected to be light. As winds shift to the west- northwest tonight, a weak northwest flow snowfall event will setup across the higher elevations. This will provide additional orographic lift across the higher elevations where slightly higher precip amounts can be expected.
237 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2017 Upper level analysis continues to show large trof over the northern CONUS with some ridging over the West Coast. At the surface, arctic high pressure in control, with next arctic front slipping south across ND.
/issued 318 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017/ Low pressure over Hudson Bay will remain quite predominant in the NAmer weather pattern. High amplitude ridging from California all the way to Santaland at 90N is noted. A disturbance in the mean flow is passing to our north today which is driving a cold front through the region this morning.
Thickening high clouds over northern California today are resulting in less sunshine and cooler temperatures across the district. As of 1 PM current temperature readings were in the lower to middle 50s across the area, which generally were cooler than yesterday at this time by a few degrees. Looking ahead, medium range models continue to build high pressure over the area through the coming week keeping the area dry with seasonable temperatures. SFO Bridge Approach.
311 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017 Canadian high pressure and dry air was moving into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this evening.
Not really thinking much in the way of accumulations but along and east of the Buffalo Ridge a couple tenths of an inch will be possible. So the message, it's going to be cold, and highs will not move a lot off of the lows for Christmas day.
In fact, cool weather will persist throughout the forecast period as a mean upper trough prevails across the eastern conus through the week with occasional reinforcements of the cool airmass.
Central Idaho will be the hardest hit with 3 to 5 inches expected in a 24 hour period across the Camas Prairie and 6 to 10 inches expected in the higher elevations and back country tonight and tomorrow.
With some lingering morning clouds and light snow cover across our central KS counties, high temperatures will likely struggle to reach freezing across much of the area although locations along the OK state line may rise into the lower 30s.
Arctic high pressure will build across western and central North Dakota tonight through Christmas Day. Thus, given the uncertainty of some clouds, and also mixing via 10-15kt surface winds ahead of the high as it builds in, did not go for the bottom of the forecast envelope for lows tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the West Coast for the next several days. A couple of weak weather disturbances will move over the top of the ridge bringing a small threat of High Sierra snow tonight and several rounds of high clouds over the next several days. As stated before, the lower atmosphere is very dry however with some moistening of the layer in the 10-14k foot layer due to evaporation, some light snow is possible mainly north of Kings Canyon. The ridge then rebuilds for the remainder of the week for continued dry weather for the rest of the calendar year.
1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Mid-level clouds have been stubborn to dissipate within a region of weak lift ahead of an upstream upper trough. However, clouds should be on the decrease through late afternoon with increasing mid/upper level subsidence as the trough swings through the area. 35 inches), so the lower clouds may skirt by mainly to the southeast.
Along the outerside of this ridge exists some deeper moisture and precipitation to the west of the forecast area.
an upper low centered off the southern California coastline with a strong northern stream trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Weak ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast this morning has turned winds to the east and southeast. Temperatures at 3 am were generally in the lower and middle 60s.
Southerly winds continued to bring warmer weather into the region, with temperatures ranging from the teens to lower 20s. South winds ahead of a cold front in southern Canada will allow temperatures to climb through the 30s, to near 40 across the region by this afternoon.
A warm front lifting inland from the coast during the morning hours will result in light east or northeasterly winds veering to the southeast or south during the day Wednesday. Any modest improvement in ceilings or visibilities in the afternoon hours will lower again back to the lower-end of IFR Wednesday evening with loss of heating.
The warmer RAP and HRRR models are preferred for this temperature forecast today, which shows the potential for near 80 in the Red Hills along the Oklahoma border.
1225 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A weak wave of low pressure will move across the area tonight with another weak wave moving up the ohio Valley on Wednesday.
Best chances of rainfall will be today and again on Fri as a weak cold front moves thru the mid state region. Still a slight chance of a wintry mix on Fri night across the higher elevations of the Highland Rim as colder air works in from the northwest after midnight, but this event should be relatively brief at best. Expected afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s, around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region. As that weak cold front moves thru the mid state region on Fri, afternoon highs will be much closer to seasonal normal values, especially across the northwestern half of the mid state region. An exception to this will potentially be a moderate rainfall event possible across the northern half of the mid state region on Fri morning as the weak cold front pushes through.
A stationary front over Central Florida early this morning will slowly dissipate today into tonight allowing for high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters for late this week. Naples will also be near or at records for the highs rest of this week. High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters this weeekend extending back west into the Florida Peninsula. This will keep the cold front well north of the area this weekend and allow for the continuation of dry and above normal temperatures over South Florida this weekend.
Current temperature readings are likely to be the eventual lows overnight as the warmer southerly push will result in rising temperatures after midnight in most locations with a warm front drawing northward from the Gulf. However, sly flow at the sfc will return overnight, ushering in a much warmer airmass that will hold steady or even warm our temps through the overnight hours.
An upper level low drifting to the southwest offshore was responsible for some isolated showers in the southern portion of the region this afternoon. Cool temperatures in the forecast for tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s in the valleys. Near seasonal average temperatures expected for tomorrow with some cooling in coastal areas as onshore flow increases ahead of an approaching trough from the north.
Vsby improves to the east where the warm front has backed into south cntrl La this eve. Tonight the warm front will continue northward as high pressure shift east of the area.
251 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 The cool wedge of high pressure in the forecast area will modify today.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today with no rain expected. Even with the cloud cover present, highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s across north Florida and up to 70 degrees in GA and AL.
1006 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018 Current surface analysis shows remnants of arctic front stretching from eastern MT, to far eastern WY, to low pressure over southeast CO. Upper level analysis shows persistent northwest flow from southwest Canada through the Northern Plains, with an area of low pressure cutoff along the CA coast. Southwesterly winds can be expected in most areas, breezy at times over northeast WY, especially the higher elevations of Campbell County. Highs will be in the 40s across much of the area, possibly a bit cooler across parts of northwest SD. Clouds will begin to increase from the north and west in the afternoon as next cold front slides south across MT and ND.
Elsewhere around central Illinois, increasing cloud cover will be noted with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s far north around Galesburg and Lacon.
1201 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A shift in low level southerly flow as surface ridging exits to the east will begin to draw higher moisture into the region through the TAF period. Main governing factor today has been the very strong surface anticyclone that building out of southeastern Michigan through New England. A weak ridge axis has been holding on through this afternoon which has limited the gradient wind response thus far. Altostratus canopy over the state will also remain an issue, preference is to shade warmer on mins tonight. Large scale warm advection rotating around the backside of the subtropical ridge will lift northward into the state on Wednesday night. Temperatures Wednesday night are forecasted to remain above freezing. Still good for some overrunning rain over Lower Michigan with temperatures will above freezing.
The upper level low pressure system off the California coast turn back to the east and weaken as it moves through Arizona and southern Utah Wednesday night.
1045 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures returned to the local area today as the low level flow turned southerly and warmer air began to advect across the local area. This has led to the first afternoon in over a week with high temperatures topping above freezing for much of our local forecast area. opted towards the cool side of guidance for Wednesday morning with most locations expected to bottom out in the lower 20s. as southerly flow at the surface continues with weak ridging across the upper layers of the atmosphere.
158 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 A trough of low pressure will result in increasing rain chances today.
Through the morning and into the afternoon a trough of low pressure will move through the area, which will keep a westerly component to the surface wind.
So updated to insert patchy freezing fog over the third of my area through mid morning on Wednesday. Trough is in place from the northern plains across the Western US, with west-southwest flow extending across the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. A stalled warm front has slowly lifted north, but cooler air has held in place across our norther CWA were persistent snow pack in place. At the same time high clouds will be increasing Wednesday and this lowers confidence on highs despite moderation in air mass aloft. For now lows are expected to drop below 30F (possibly into the teens in our north) tonight, with above freezing lows possible Wed night. Highs Wed could be into the lower 70s, but this will depend highly on how much clearing we have before opaque clouds move in.