Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1006 AM MST Thu Feb 1 2018 Upper level analysis has large broad trof across the northern CONUS with ridging along the West Coast. At the surface, arctic high pressure has settled across the Northern Plains. After a chilly day today, boundary will shift back northeast with slightly warmer air moving in for Friday.
The coldest end of that range will be from central MN into west central WI (Alexandria to Cambridge across west central WI). Friday return flow becomes established across the area ahead of the next trough. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer across the southwestern area, where highs will warm into the 20s.
As mentioned yesterday, slight differences in ridge placement will likely impact temps overnight. With mixing expecting to persist overnight across much of the area, have trended just above the cooler guidance. However, across wrn portions of the CWA where winds will become calm late tonight into Fri morning, have trended aob the cooler guidance. With either CAA continuing thru Fri or weak advection, have trended twd the cooler guidance for temps on Fri. Tilly Cold start to the morning on Friday under the influence of strong high pressure will keep highs below normal for the afternoon despite strong insolation under a sunny sky. MOS guidance only gives us highs in the low to mid 30s in most locations.
Cold front just beginning to enter our far northwestern areas. Freezing levels still expected to lower toward the critical snow levels by late afternoon across our far north. Freezing levels look as though they will lower enough, soon enough, so as to link up with the deeper moisture before it pulls out. Cold front to work across the area this afternoon, with rainfall accompanying the front.
Cold front is well south of the area now across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle region. Meanwhile, farther to the north, the upper jet associated with the trof axis swinging through the northern U. Still looking at a low grade potential for some patchy freezing drizzle across portions of El Paso county where southeasterly upslope flow may bring some shallow lift and brief saturation later this morning. Have pulled back on the areal coverage of freezing drizzle, and it doesn't look like there is much of a threat for accumulation. though should be around 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday.
A cold front will move through the region overnight into early Friday morning, causing winds to shift to the north northeast with gusts at and around 20 to 25 kts.
Today & Tonight: Cold front that crossed KS yesterday afternoon & evening ventured across most of OK during the night. STRONG & deep, mid-upper flow continues to dominate roughly the northern half of North America in wake of sharpening & positively tilted trof extending from Southern Hudson Bay to the Upper MS Valley. The strong & deep upper regime will drive Canadian High pressure SE across KS tonight & with clearing skies & diminishing winds, lows in the teens remain certain areawide. Fri-Sat Night: As the weakening Canadian-originated high crosses the Lower MS Valley a rapid warmup is still scheduled to commence on Fri with highs in the 40s with Sat's highs certain to reach 50 to 55 in most areas.
An upper trough moving across the Eastern CONUS has pushed a cold front through the area. Temperatures in most locations are about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time, expect along the Rio Grande where warmer conditions still exist. Cooler air will continue to filter in making Friday the coolest day out of the next several.
Upper ridging near 130 W extends inland over California as weak vort max moves through Oregon towards Great Basin. Associated mid to high level cloudiness with this disturbance has resulted in temperatures this morning running 10+ degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Some of the warmer temperature guidance showing potential for a few record high temperatures this afternoon, mainly in the Northern Sacramento Valley.
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 Non-diurnal falling temperatures will be the main weather story for today as a secondary cold front pushes through the region.
346 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018 It's been a cold February day across Kansas and Missouri thanks to the dry cold front moved through early this morning, allowing a cold north wind to prevail through the day.
Warm air advection increases Friday as the high pressure slides east as low level flow becomes southerly. /Friday night through Thursday/ Synoptic scale details within the current model suite show little variation through the next 7 days as a large trough remains locked in east of the Rockies.
Cold front extends from Lincoln to Lexington to Ogallala to Scottsbluff. Then this evening as winds become south increasing clouds as a warm frontal boundary pushes northeast across far western Nebraska. A prolonged period of northwest flow is expected atop the Central Plains as a ridge remains entrenched off the Pacific coast.
255 PM MST Thu Feb 1 2018 Active Winter pattern to begin tomorrow night, possibly bringing Freezing rain to portions of the area.
Winds will weaken from west to east this afternoon as high pressure builds in. The pressure gradient ahead of approaching high pressure will keep sustained north winds in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts for much of the area through mid afternoon.
350 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 A strong Arctic cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Friday morning.
Western NOAM ridge will remain anchored with numerous impulses advecting through the flow the next 7 days or so as the upper jet will be positioned over the region.
With 850 temps around -20C, northwest flow aloft, and high pressure providing for lighter winds, significant diurnal cooling is expected again overnight with lows into the single digits to double digits below zero.
The high moves overhead this evening with winds going light.
Main question from a few hours ago was stratocu in Manitoba and that has been surging much faster southward now down the Red River valley and there is a pressure rise into the RRV due to high pressure to our north and a more noticeable north direction shift has been observed.
1041 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 A warm frontal boundary drifting slowly north across the region will bring some occasional light rain or drizzle into early Monday.
825 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight while a cold front stalls across the Gulf of Maine.
As the upper low moves off to the east, upper ridging will drift east across the forecast area today. Tonight, the upper ridging is expected to move quickly off to the east of the forecast area as deep low pressure and troughing develops over the plains states. This cold front will be approaching the Mississippi River by daybreak Monday, with perhaps a few showers moving into our far western counties very late tonight as the front approaches and upper ridging weakens. High temperatures today finally return to the lower 70s for most locations, except along the immediate coastal areas where the onshore flow will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s. Warmer tonight too, with lows ranging from the upper 40s over northeastern counties to the low to mid 50s elsewhere.
Precip chances pick up later this afternoon as a strong upper level trough of low pressure moves east across the Central and Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains early in the period. Short range models indicate the upper level low deepning as it pushes eastward across the high plains of western Kansas. Considering the projected track of this system, the highest impact of snow and blowing snow will be felt across west central into central Kansas near and along the I-70 corridor. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) tonight as colder air spreads southward into western Kansas behind a cold front advancing across the region. Snow and blowing snow conditions may linger across central Kansas early Monday initially, but precip chances will quickly dwindle through Monday afternoon as a strong upper level trough transitions further east across the Central Plains.
432 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Closed mid-level low pressure center crosses northern part of forecast area this afternoon, producing strong winds and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Pacific cold front arrives this morning, with strong winds commencing by noon. Canadian cold front arrives late this afternoon shifting winds to northwest. In spite of strong winds and sub-freezing temperatures tonight, wind chill values are not expected to fall into advisory or warning thresholds.
A warm front has developed well to our north and a low pressure system is deepening over the Great Plains.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to middle 50s. A deep trough continues to deepen over the Desert Southwest with zonal flow across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. Over the next 24 hours the trough will shift into the Southern Plains resulting in strong cyclogenesis over western portions of Texas and Oklahoma. This will strengthen the southerly flow/warm advection across the Midsouth increasing our chance of rain showers and ushering in higher dewpoints ahead of the approaching trough. but should fall back into the low to middle 50s by morning.
and Monday A storm track like this in mid winter is usually associated with snow, but the lack of an arctic high to the north to deliver low level cold air will result in more rain than snow across east central Wisconsin, and a mix of snow, sleet and perhaps freezing rain from Wisconsin Rapids to Shawano to Peshtigo. Warm advection ahead of the winter storm will bring a mix of snow, freezing rain and rain to all but the far north late tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 20s in the north and in the low 30s in the south. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s.
Models have been very consistent pushing a cold front through here during the day Monday and not providing Middle TN with PoPs until after 12Z Monday.
846 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late Monday with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front, but turning warmer again late week. For now, have kept mostly cloudy conditions through the afternoon and into this evening, as guidance is suggesting some drying in the low levels later today. Eventually we will see some areas of drizzle or light rain making it to the ground, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area as a warm front lifts through.
Upper trough near the Four Corners will continue making its way eastward today. Its associated surface prefrontal trough and front itself will enter the state and become a focus for shra/tstm development later this afternoon (probably initiating around the I-35 corridor).
A cold front will move through the region bringing a chance for showers to the Austin and San Antonio areas. A pre-frontal trough will move through the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande this afternoon resulting in clearing. The inversion across portions of the northeast CWA is expected to erode mid to late afternoon as the pre-frontal trough approaches from the west and deeper forcing in the base of the upper trough clip the CWA. Farther south we anticipate the inversion to hold and then drier air to filter into the area with the pre-frontal trough. The actual cold front will catch up to the pre-frontal trough and move through the CWA later evening and overnight with clearing skies.
Today Through Monday Upper low pressure will move out of the Four Corners Region today and into the Plains by tonight. This low will move through northern Missouri Monday. Strong westerly flow will move into Arkansas as the low passes north of the state. High pressure will build into the area by late Monday.
Low temperatures Monday morning will be cold with lower deserts in the 30s and coldest deserts dipping below freezing.
456 AM PST Sun Jan 21 2018 Weak high pressure over the region will maintain dry and seasonably cool conditions today.
Farther south and east, drier air in the mid levels atop moistening lower levels may lead to patchy freezing drizzle. By late morning, relative humidity increases in the mid levels with the threat for freezing drizzle ending.
A Pacific cold front is forecast to move through the area this morning, resulting in increasing west winds. In addition, an upper level trough will approach the region, with the GFS indicating 850 mb winds of 35 to 40 knots and 750 mb winds of 50 to 60 knots, across our northern and western counties.
Ahead of this front, southerly flow will allow for a continued increase in warmer, moist air across Central Alabama. A much larger upper low over the Rockies will move east- northeast into the Central Plains through tonight that will help to usher the surface system closer. Height falls are expected on Monday as a strong Plains trough moves eastward, and moisture return should be sufficient for a band of showers and maybe some thunder along a cold front.
Latest satellite images shows closed, but progressive low pressure just now emerging from the four corners, very nr the CO/NM stateline. Northeast of this low pressure, nice diffluent flow was evident across the CWFA. Latest VWP from KCYS 88D shows northeast flow of around 15 mph up to 11 kft, which has added to moist ascent into the higher terrain across much of the area. Models are consistent in tracking this closed low pressure area east along the Colorado/New Mexico border thru the day today, reaching western Kansas by sunset tonight. Monday will be mostly dry (exception of small snow chances in the mountains) with high temperatures returning to near freezing.
The NAM model and some of the higher resolution models continue to be just a little further northwest than the GFS and ECMWF regarding the heaviest snowfall area, but have also been trending southeast. Freezing drizzle potential. Temperatures overnight have for the most part remained just above freezing in most areas and thus we have been seeing drizzle rather than freezing drizzle. Temperatures will likely remain rather steady until the snow moves in later this afternoon or evening and thus most areas will see more drizzle than freezing drizzle. Therefore, no headline is currently in effect for freezing drizzle this morning, but if temperatures would slip 2 or 3 degrees today then a winter headline may still be needed.
High pressure over the southeast CONUS coupled with a large area of deepening low pressure over the southern plains is bringing milder air northward into our area on southerly winds. A cold front spiraling around the system should reach central Kentucky by late Monday. The period will begin with an upper level closed low in the Midwest Monday evening.
609 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will be shifting farther eastward through tonight.
On Monday, a cold front will swing up the Ohio Valley, pushing a better chance of rain showers across the region during the afternoon and evening.
946 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will prevail into Monday.
534 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Water vapor imagery showing large upper low across the Desert Southwest this morning, with nighttime microphysics channel highlighting an abundance of low clouds across the lower Missouri Vly in a well-established warm air and moisture advection regime. Quick look at latest observations reveals warming temperatures this morning, setting the stage for what should be a warm afternoon with high temps likely topping out in the lower 60s across much of the area. Periods of light drizzle will remain possible today, before precipitation grows more upscale in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as main cold front approaches from the west. Quick look at area fcst soundings shows a weak capping inversion persisting through the afternoon before increasing lift and the arrival of cooler temps aloft allow for gradual cap erosion.
Low pressure developing over the central plains will move to the great lakes by Monday night and up the St.
A cold low pressure system over the Four Corners early this morning will continue to move eastward and away from Arizona. Instability showers behind the cold front were far more prolific, widespread and persistent than was previously thought. After today, expect a warming trend as a ridge rebuilds over the southwest.
the region will see freezing fog/rain/drizzle develop before a transition over to moderate to heavy snow. morning hours will have central and eastern zones seeing a continued slow transition to msunny/sunny conditions as high pressure returns over the region.
517 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight while a cold front stalls across the Gulf of Maine.
946 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight while a cold front stalls across the Gulf of Maine.
440 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Current surface map shows low deepening over southwest Kansas as upper low moves through the four corners region.
After a period of low amplitude ridging to our west midweek an upper trough is progged to develop across the western CONUS with breezy south to southwest winds returning to the forecast area.
816 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Warming temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a Monday night cold front. Warm,moist advection will continue today over the Upper Ohio Region as the area is in the broad eastern flank/warm sector of deep low pressure emerging from the Four- Corners Region. Warm but damp weather can thus be expected over the immediate area until that system pulls a cold front across the Upper Ohio on Monday night. Precip probabilities for Monday were adjusted for warm frontal positioning, a change which features likely numbers(albeit still for light rain) for northern zones during the morning followed by a transitional period as the low to the west matures.
608 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late Monday with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front, but turning warmer again late week. Eventually we will see some areas of drizzle or light rain making it to the ground, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area as a warm front lifts through.
349 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 Scattered light snow showers are occurring across the region this morning, and are expected to slowly taper off as high pressure builds today.
Winds will be strong today, with model guidance varying significantly on strength of wind and timing/progression of pacific cold front this afternoon. Vast majority of model guidance has convective initiation east and south of our CWA, but with some lower confidence on exact placement of frontal boundary when mid- level thermal trough moves over region, we will keep in line with SPC with this forecast issuance and have severe weather risks across our far southeast counties, with brief damaging wind gusts possible. Much cooler air will start to move over the region this evening through tomorrow. Wind expected to subside somewhat this evening with decoupling behind initial front, but stronger winds will spread over Oklahoma and northern Texas after midnight and during the day Monday as reinforcing lower level ridge builds.
552 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure will prevail into Monday.
The mid to upper level low near the Four Corners region will move east into western Kansas this evening and then across northern Missouri by Monday afternoon. The cold front will usher in drier air to the region for Monday. Areas of fog along the coast were dense around midnight, but visibilities have improved during the night as the low level flow strengthen. But with warm moist air moving across the cooler shelf/bay waters, suspect fog will still be a problem this morning. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible tonight in advance of the next cold front.
This trough will be centered over northeast Florida around 10 AM or so, then move into the Atlantic by noon.
The upper level ridge will continue to strengthen across the forecast area today and expect clouds will decrease throughout the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 45 60 41 / 0 0 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 40 63 41 / 0 0 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 60 40 61 41 / 10 0 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 34 62 39 / 10 10 10 70.
628 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast through Monday.
mainly along and north of the Highway 200 corridor. Main question from a few hours ago was stratocu in Manitoba and that has been surging much faster southward now down the Red River valley and there is a pressure rise into the RRV due to high pressure to our north and a more noticeable north direction shift has been observed.
1020 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 A weak H85-H50 short wave trof over the NE GOMex/Deep South combining with a pocket of enhanced H100-H70 RH over the N FL peninsula to generate a band of shras along and north of the I-4 Corridor this mrng. Upstream analysis shows drier and more stable air advecting into the west peninsula on the backside of the H85-H50 trof. Will maintain chc shras/slgt chc tsras along and north of I-4, remainder of the fcst will be dry as the central peninsula gains the descending flank of the trof. Favorable boating conds as a hi pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the Deep South maintains a light to gentle E/NE breeze over the lcl Atlc. light N/NE breeze over the shelf waters due to a weak inverted trof induced by the colder water temps.
Best forcing is moving offshore this morning and expect shower activity to move east with perhaps a couple of light sprinkles possible over the southeast zones about 11am-3pm near low level troughing. Highs in the lower to mid 60s over the ern zones with lower 70s over the interior areas.
518 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Warming temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a Monday night cold front. Warm,moist advection will continue today over the Upper Ohio Region as the area is in the broad eastern flank/warm sector of deep low pressure emerging from the Four- Corners Region. Warm but damp weather can thus be expected over the immediate area until that system pulls a cold front across the Upper Ohio on Monday night. Precip probabilities for Monday were adjusted for warm frontal positioning, a change which features likely numbers(albeit still for light rain) for northern zones during the morning followed by a transitional period as the low to the west matures.
The warm front that moved through the area has pushed well north of the Ozarks as noted by the breezy southerly winds, rather warm temperatures in the 50s and increased moisture. Additionally, winds may gust at times between 25 and 35 mph this afternoon before tapering off just slightly this evening as a cold front and the storm system approach the region. Drier air will try and work its way into the area along with the cooler airmass. Winds will remain gusty through the day Monday as the upper low makes its way across northern Missouri through the day. Light rain or showers will be possible as the wrap around moisture slides along with the low.
Ceilings areawide are expected to fall to MVFR status overnight and into Monday morning, as low clouds overspread the area and rain chances increase from west to east ahead of an approaching cold front. Ridging aloft will continue to build through the forecast area today, as an upper low and trough swings east into and through the nation's mid-section overnight. At the surface, high pressure remains wedged into the CWA from the east through the afternoon, but will begin shifting further east overnight in response to an approaching cold front that'll be on our western doorstep around day break Monday. Under partly cloudy skies this afternoon, look for highs to generally warm into the low and middle 70s. Tonight, look for increasing clouds with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
As the upper low continues moving eastward it should produce surface pressure falls over the Oklahoma panhandle which will increase pressure gradients across eastern Colorado.