Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1141 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2016 For the 23/06Z TAFs, a warm front continued to nudge into the region this evening with 03Z mesoanalysis showing the front as far north as IAH. Otherwise, expect southeasterly winds 7 to 11 knots to become established behind the warm front. As the warm front lifts north late this evening and after midnight expect the low levels to saturate and fog to become more widespread across the southern half of the area. Most of the guidance is showing the warm front moving into the Matagorda Bay area to around Wharton between 3 am and 9 am.
110 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure will then build in on Friday before quickly moving offshore Friday night.
Clouds and cooler column will limit temperature recovery with coldest temperatures over the far nw and still relatively mild over the south and east.
Across the eastern Ozarks a little drier air is still in place and as this dry air is overcome some brief sleet will be possible and a few snow flakes early this morning as slightly cooler temperatures are in place. Temperatures at the surface will remain above freezing across the entire area and no accumulations or impacts are expected.
A mixed P-type will be possible as temps are aoa freezing in some locations.
329 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure is expected to build across the area on today.
1025 PM MST Thu Dec 22 2016 Broad upper ridge covers the central CONUS, with a closed low over southern CA. Upper ridging will rebuild over the region Friday.
141 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today.
401 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 Patchy fog early this morning combined with refreezing of melting snow may lead to slick spots on roads as well as locally low visibilities.
1206 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure behind the cold front will build north of the forecast area tonight.
Upper level zonal flow continues over the area as a weak ridge of high pressure aloft drifts east from Mexico over the central and eastern Gulf through late Friday. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern CONUS will continue to move east off the mid Atlantic coast through Friday, with surface flow shifting to more easterly to southeasterly by Friday night. Have continued to lean a little cooler than guidance for Friday's highs given the cloud cover and cool, moist ground in place, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 60's areawide.
350 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure passes south of the region today.
Light snow along and east of the 700mb trough axis continues across southern Utah this evening, and has been slower to shift east than expected. The HRRR maintains light snow across the higher terrain of central and southern Utah east of the I-15 corridor into the overnight hours, and have gone ahead and extended the going Winter Weather Advisory accordingly, with snow expected to end after midnight.
1232 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will provide sunny and mild conditions for Friday.
Meanwhile a mid level trof will approach from the west. Temps will climb a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday though clouds will hamper warming.
Surface ridging over the southern Appalachians early this morning will move east allowing boundary layer winds to become southwesterly with warming temperatures this afternoon.
Today deep layer moisture will increase in response to a short wave moving out of the high plains and southerly flow in the lower troposphere. With temperatures expected to be at or below freezing over our far northwestern counties early this morning, there could be light freezing drizzle there between 12- 15Z (6-9am). The decision to mention freezing rain is due to the possibility of some of the melted snow, ie rain reaching the ground in areas that are expected to be at or below freezing at the onset.
304 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure centered over Ohio will build into the Mid Atlantic today.
331 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with low pressure developing in southeast Colorado. Dew points were in the 20s across the Midwest with teens in the northern Plains and 30s in the lower Mississippi Valley. Right now overall snow amounts should be 1-2 inches in the highway 20 corridor.
334 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 Light rain showers continue across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM this morning as an upper trough opens and shifts northeast into the Rockies.
1239 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High clouds will gradually increase tonight which should limit temperatures from dropping much below the lower 20s. Patchy fog is also expected which combined with refreezing of melting snow may lead to slick spots on roads as well as locally low visibilities.
138 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and settle south of the area Friday.
A weak cold front across southern Canada is expected to gradually move south today into tonight. Temperatures are starting off cooler today, and have generally sided with the cooler temperature guidance.
401 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will build over the area today before moving to the east tonight.
1158 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and settle south of the area Friday.
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY.
520 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVED CLOSER TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT INLAND. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE BACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH OUR COASTAL ZONES AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
615 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO.
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY.
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE W/SOME SNOW MIXED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W AS TEMPS ARE DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN ALLOWING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO SEEP SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
431 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND A COLD FRONT FORMING ALONG THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PLACE THE FLORIDA KEYS IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN. A VERY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN OSCILLATE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COUPLE MORE TROUGH SPOKES ROTATE THROUGH THE KEYS. THE PROLONGED SPELL OF NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
651 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION BUT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING AND PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VERY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES ACRS THE AREA WHILE A VERY COMPACT AND WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WITH N-S ORIENTED TROF LINGERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DRIFT SWD. A UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW WITHIN A DIGGING TROF OVER NRN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL DROP SSE OVERNIGHT THRU LATE DAY TMRW. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. FOLLOWING WARMER LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S TNGT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND DRY DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
1140 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HOW FAR WEST THE MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEPING THE LOWER DECKS NEAR THE COAST WITH OTHER MODELS LOWERING CIGS WELL INLAND. /ISSUED 225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/ A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NOW. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
A warming trend will take place the rest of the week into the first part of the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the area.
Mid and high clouds are increasing across interior NorCal as the upstream trough approaches the West Coast. Blocking high centered over the northern Rockies forecast to weaken and shift a little further to the east over the next 24 to 48 hours. The approaching trough is forecast to split, with the the southern portion forming a closed low which drifts slowly southeastward off the central California coast, and eventually into SoCal by the end of the week. For NorCal, shower chances are expected to return to the mountains later today as the mid-level cap erodes a bit with the approach of the trough. Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase Wednesday through the remainder of the week as the low passes to our south.
EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ A WELCOME CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD OVER THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SEEN DIVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE OUR REGION TODAY AND LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION.
AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY.
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATUES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY. A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.
611 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM MCCOMB TO MERIDIAN. STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES QUICKLY WEDNESDAY. BUT KEPT THE LOWER POPS FOR NOW.
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHWARD TODAY, DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST.
A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight. An upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the area the rest of the work week.
419 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A WELCOME CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD OVER THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SEEN DIVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE OUR REGION TODAY AND LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION.
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AREA IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA.
130 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY.
632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE LEVELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MN FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A WELL-DEFINED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK THIS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
616 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
Numerous TSRA will develop by afternoon as a cold front moves slowly southeast across the region. At the surface, the cold front currently cutting NE to SW across Alabama will get nudged southeastward to a position from near Augusta SW to Panama City by 00z Wed. Although deep layer shear will be increasing throughout the day ahead of the amplifying upper trough, the limiting factor for organized severe storms will be marginal instability due to extensive cloud cover. Highs will be just a bit cooler than previous days ranging form near 80 northwest zones to lower and mid 80s elsewhere.
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
310 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
542 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A DECAYING/DISSIPATING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE CWA EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY.
At the surface, the cold front currently cutting NE to SW across Alabama will get nudged southeastward to a position from near Augusta SW to Panama City by 00z Wed. Although deep layer shear will be increasing throughout the day ahead of the amplifying upper trough, the limiting factor for organized severe storms will be marginal instability due to extensive cloud cover. Highs will be just a bit cooler than previous days ranging form near 80 northwest zones to lower and mid 80s elsewhere.
1101 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016 RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DOMINATING. WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE MORE AND MORE CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ABSAROKAS TUESDAY AND OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 99 PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE CUMULUS FLOATING OFF THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS MS/WESTERN TN BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36HOURS. AS FOR TODAY THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
454 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF SE TX TODAY BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THEM LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD ALSO BE SEEING CHANGES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SQUEEZED BE- TWEEN THE TWO BULLSEYE UPPER LOWS ON BOTH COASTS BEGINS TO FLAT- TEN AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 41 MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND MAY GET A NUDGE UP AS 850 COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING AND THE HAPHAZARD CAA IN PLACE GETS REINFORCED.
402 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH NOTED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH MAY BE TRYING TO CLOSE OFF SOME. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z. IN GENERAL 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. RESULT IS MLCAPE OF 100-300 J/KG WITH POSSIBLY A POCKET APPROACHING 500 J/KG NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. INTERACTION OF THE LOW ON THIS MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
Bright, sunny skies will again be common today as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead. Increasing mid level moisture on Wednesday will allow for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain, but minimal instability will keep storms rather weak.
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE COAST IN THE PACIFIC AND TO THE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION.
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY.
Temperatures will be on the cool side again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s. The main upper low will then track to the southeast across the Ohio valley region. Will start to see a warmup for the end of the work week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES AROUND 00Z. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PASS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
255 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY.