Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A series of cold fronts will march through North Dakota today and tonight.
zonal flow aloft will be over the area in between high pressure to our west and southwest and low pressure near North Dakota. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with northeast winds 5 to 15 mph, highest along and south of the interstate. much cooler temperatures are expected behind Saturday nights cold front. A ridge will amplify and set up to the west, while the trough moves to the Eastern Conus and amplifies. It is doubtful we will see support for storms aloft in this flow with the large amplitude ridge to our west which will contribute to dryness in the area.
It looks like Arkansas will have a pleasant weekend, with afternoon high temperatures rebounding into the lower and mid 80's on both days. The next system will be taking aim at the area as a cold front and associated trof drops down toward the area from the southern Plains.
Weak high pressure at the surface will gradually slide east into Alabama and Georgia allowing a more predominantly southerly flow to develop. Aloft, an upper low will continue to sit across the northern gulf coast which could promote a couple of isolated light showers Saturday although the very dry air above 850 mb is unlikely to allow for anything stronger. This trof will lift off to the northeast on Sunday as it is absorbed by a southward digging trof over the central U.
Skies across the area remain mostly cloudy as temperatures hover in the low to upper 60s.
Winds become light and variable after sunset as the front treks off to the east, mixing decreases, and high pressure temporarily builds in. The bulk of the extended sees a large scale upper trough building across the eastern U. and an upper ridge building into the western U. This keeps our region in overall northwesterly flow and shuttles in plenty of cooler Canadian air. The minor exception to this comes very late Saturday night through Sunday as a cold front moves through the region with the previous mentioned upper trough sliding east. Despite relatively cooler temps, low dew points and strong winds still leads to elevated or high fire danger. During the late morning and early afternoon, a passing cold front quickly shifts southerly winds to westerly and northwesterly.
We are expecting afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s, but if skies clear more significantly or earlier than expected, those temperatures could surge into the lower 80s. Highs should be in the low to middle 80s.
Either way clear and calm conditions will allow for some modest ridge/valley temperature splits, with lows in the upper 50s to around 60. Then once again Sunday high pressure remain in control and keeps the weather quiet. However, went a little more optimistic in terms of timing in areas that are seeing the clouds and therefore have the lower CIGs and Vis starting later as a result.
347 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warm and dry weather. Showers and thunderstorms will be back in the forecast Sunday night into midweek as as an upper level disturbance moves through followed by a strong cold front. Dry and cooler weather will follow mid to late week.
Sunday promises to be dramatically cooler with strong/increasing north winds. Expect a modest warmup into the lower to mid 70s through midday, before cold air advection sends temperatures slowly falling during the afternoon. A cold front will traverse across the region early in the day. It will feel and be quite cooler with highs only in the 70s and 80s Sunday.
120 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warm and dry weather. Dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures will follow mid to late week, as a series of cold fronts move off the coast. The mid-level s/w trof axis will swing NE-E of the FA early Sat, with some weak subsidence in it's wake. Enough instability develops Sat aftn, mainly along a weak sea breeze boundary or what's left of a the warm front. At the surface weak high pressure will give way to a broad south to southwest flow keeping the area slightly unsettled through the period.
However, if this trough/low tracks a bit more south than the latest models suggests, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms to sneak into our central WI counties later this afternoon/evening with the better forcing, but again not expecting much in the way across our CWA today. Then overnight a cold front looks to approach the area. Exact timing of the cold front passage still varies slightly from model to model, but a general consensus is the front will push across the area sometime Sunday morning bringing west-northwesterly winds along with drier and cooler temps.
First, temperatures this afternoon: yesterday the highs were short of the forecast and concerned that they could be again today. With cooler temperatures, the relative humidities will be a touch higher, but still should be low enough. The lower wind speeds will also impact the conditions. Sunday will be much cooler than today.
1132 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge over NM to gradually flatten as strong wly flow aloft develops over the central Rockies. A backdoor front will descend into New Mexico, bringing with it gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
A cool down may be in store for the beginning of the week before building high pressure brings back warm temperatures by midweek.
A breezy day is also expected for much of the region as lee trough/low intensifies.
The forecast is on track with temperatures falling into the low to upper 60s. Otherwise, tonight into tomorrow looks to be dry with lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to low 80s. Highs for Sunday are in the lower 80s.
325 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Patchy fog has developed across the region this morning and will begin to become slightly more widespread, especially in the south where the low stratus has begun to degrade. Highs today will range from the lower to mid 80s. A few showers will be possible in the afternoon as a weak impulse rotating around the upper low swings through the southern portions of the region. The upper low will continue to swing through the region on Saturday night.
With the cloud cover and light winds, lows in the lower to mid 50s still look good. Winds will increase behind the front as the pressure gradient sharply tightens again ahead of another bubble of high pressure. While forecast min RH is in the lower 20s, went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning given the strong winds and dry antecedent conditions. An upper trough digs into the northern plains late Saturday bringing much cooler temperatures Saturday night and Sunday. The main challenges are winds and temperatures following several cold frontal passages through the period. By 12z Sunday, a broad trough of low pressure will be present across much of the Northern US. CAA behind another cold front may help amplify mixing Sunday afternoon, and promote enhanced gustiness.
Weak cold advection with a secondary front will also aid in mixing, however fire weather may be slightly less of a concern thanks to a much cooler airmass, with some higher humidity behind this secondary front.
At the surface, a cold front is evident from southern MN into western KS. This will start to push the front southward again and we'll see very warm temperatures surge northeastward ahead of the front as the thermal ridge expands northeastward. The cold front should be splitting the area from southwest to northeast by Sunday morning.
A cold front will traverse across the region early in the day. It will feel and be quite cooler with highs only in the 70s and 80s Sunday.
Although temperatures won't really be any cooler in the wake of the weak front, conditions could be slightly drier with only a very slight chance for showers expected tomorrow. An upper low will eject out of the ArkLaTex region, weaken and deamplify, as it moves northeast into the Tennessee Valley.
Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend as a series of dry cold fronts push through Utah and southwest Wyoming. High pressure aloft will then strengthen over the West Coast and western Great Basin, resulting in a steady warming and drying trend beginning early in the week.
1003 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Drier cooler air move into the region overnight decreasing showers and winds for the region. Saturday and Sunday: A ridge begins to build along the coast for the start of the period and turn the West-East flow pattern into a Northwest-Southeast pattern. A dry, cooling trend is expected to grip the region overnight and bring cooler temps to region with widespread mid 30s. The cooler temps and moisture near surface could bring more frost the Northern areas and into portions of the Columbia Basin and Central ID Panhandle. As the ridge continues to build on Sunday, the region dries out and the any remaining showers dissipate by early Sunday.
Lows look to be a bit warmer than this morning with overnight readings falling into the upper 50s to around 60 in most areas. By Sunday morning a weak 5H closed low over the lower MS Valley will become enveloped within the longwave trough that will be deepening across the central US. WAA on SW flow will be enough to see afternoon highs reach into the low 80s.
Can anyone say football weather? Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs creeping into the low 80s.
1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 (This evening through Saturday) Quiet weather expected to continue tonight through tomorrow, as a weak ridge aloft remains across the southwestern US. Overnight lows and afternoon highs are both expected to be warmer, with highs on Saturday climbing into the lower to mid 90s.
1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 (This afternoon through Saturday) Under the influence of ridging over the western conus, today and tomorrow will be quite warm (hot over western parts of the forecast area), dry, and somewhat breezy.
Light winds and low level moisture might lead to some patchy fog across the region but the low status may help to limit dense fog coverage at most sites. /GG/ Weak high pressure at the surface will gradually slide east through the region during the weekend. Aloft, weak ridging will likewise quickly shift east in response to a closed low pressure system lifting northeast out of East Texas.
244 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Persistent ridging pattern will produce another day of above normal heat, breezy afternoon winds and dry conditions. Overnight lows will remain mild, mostly in the 60s, ahead of a cold front arriving later in the morning tomorrow. Models remain in good agreement in an amplification of the upper pattern over the CONUS on Sunday with the amplified western ridge and eastern trough remaining in place through the week ahead. The initial short wave trough that helps carve out the eastern long wave trough will be the sharpest and most significant one of the week and will unlock much cooler air from Canada into the southern Plains.
zonal flow aloft will be over the area in between high pressure to our west and southwest and low pressure near North Dakota. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with northeast winds 5 to 15 mph, highest along and south of the interstate. much cooler temperatures are expected behind Saturday nights cold front.
High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather Tonight and through the day Saturday. Southwesterly surface flow will continue to bring warmer than normal temperatures in to the region. High temperatures for this time of year are normally in the middle 70s but with the strong south flow highs today will reach the lower 80s and on Saturday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Other than the warm temperatures, the regions weather should be rather quiet An upper level low will move across the Gulf states Saturday night and Sunday with an associated trough sliding across the plains.
Temperatures are hovering mostly in the lower 80s, and winds on land are from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis shows the Keys at the western end of the subtropical Atlantic ridge. Aloft, deep ridging is centered just to the southeast of the Keys. However, the ridging aloft and weak low level flow has not provided a trigger overnight to tap into this convective potential, with the only activity on radar at the moment occurring along low level convergence between stronger southerly flow and weaker SW flow over the Gulf waters. The Keys will remain in light low level flow and underneath broad ridging aloft for tonight through Sunday night, with mesoscale processes continuing to provide the primary triggers for any convection.
/issued 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/ Strong lee troughing will affect the area again on Saturday in response to a substantial upper level jet across the northern US. The surface pressure trough axis will push farther to the east Saturday afternoon into the western South Plains. Thicknesses will be up a little higher on Saturday leading to warmer temperatures. will undergo a drastic change late this weekend as a large trough settles across the Plains and into the eastern U. while ridging is amplified across the West Coast. While heights aloft will be lower than Saturday with compressional warming along this boundary afternoon temperatures should still warm to well above normal for this time of year across the southern half of the forecast area with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half.
150 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Expect warm conditions to continue through the weekend with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Low level moisture held south along the Ohio River Valley with ridging from western Pennsylvania through Indiana to Arkansas. Thermal moderation continues with highs into the lower/middle 80s next two days. Discount of EC per outlier solution digging strong cutoff from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley versus developing less intense Upper Great Lakes circulation, as per NAM/GFS.
/issued 244 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/ Persistent ridging pattern will produce another day of above normal heat, breezy afternoon winds and dry conditions. Overnight lows will remain mild, mostly in the 60s, ahead of a cold front arriving later in the morning tomorrow. Models remain in good agreement in an amplification of the upper pattern over the CONUS on Sunday with the amplified western ridge and eastern trough remaining in place through the week ahead. The initial short wave trough that helps carve out the eastern long wave trough will be the sharpest and most significant one of the week and will unlock much cooler air from Canada into the southern Plains.
Otherwise dry with temperatures trending a little cooler through the weekend.
637 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warmer and mostly dry weather. Showers and a few storms will be back in the forecast Sunday night to midweek, as as an upper level disturbance moves through followed by a strong cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected into late week, Chances of rain much lower this weekend, because of deeply arid column air above 6000 feet, moisture deepens late by Sunday.
406 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Warm and humid weather will prevail today and most of Sunday in advance of a cold front that will sweep south across the area late Sunday afternoon and evening.
539 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2020 An expansive trough will deepen on the lee side of the Northern Rockies today, nudging an upper level jet southward and tightening the pressure gradient across the CWA. A cold front draped across the intermountain west will sag into the northern portion of the forecast area, however, any chance for precipitation will remain to our north. Instead, this frontal boundary will mainly provide northeast Utah and northwest Colorado with slightly cooler weather, decent cloud cover and gusty winds. Fall weather noses into the area by Sunday, as the deepening trough drives the cold front south and across the region. Moisture tied to this system will be confined to the Front Range with only isolated showers potentially clipping the highest peaks along the Divide.
556 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warmer and mostly dry weather. Showers and a few storms will be back in the forecast Sunday night to midweek, as as an upper level disturbance moves through followed by a strong cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected into late week, Chances of rain much lower this weekend, because of deeply arid column air above 6000 feet, moisture deepens late by Sunday.
An upper level trough will move across the area Saturday into Sunday, but PWATs will remain below normal limiting any chance of precipitation.
First piece of the nrn stream cold front then drops south through the plains after midnight, bringing a brief period of gusty north winds to locations along and east of the mountains through sunrise on Sunday. Models have finally somewhat converged on a solution for the cold front that will pass through the area Sunday afternoon-evening. Mostly rain is expected east of the mountains, but it is expected that some of the higher peaks will see some snow, although it should not accumulate more than a few inches at most. Once the front has departed and the upper-level low begins to move east, cooler north-northwesterly flow will dominate our area through the weekend.
A cold front currently moving through central North Dakota, with a secondary trough in northeast Montana, will set up a breezy to windy day. A series of cold fronts will march through North Dakota today and tonight.
831 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonably warm weather through tomorrow.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend as a series of dry cold fronts push through Utah and southwest Wyoming. High pressure aloft will then strengthen over the West Coast and western Great Basin, resulting in continued dry conditions and a steady warming trend beginning early in the week.
359 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2020 An expansive trough will deepen on the lee side of the Northern Rockies today, nudging an upper level jet southward and tightening the pressure gradient across the CWA. A cold front draped across the intermountain west will sag into the northern portion of the forecast area, however, any chance for precipitation will remain to our north. Instead, this frontal boundary will mainly provide northeast Utah and northwest Colorado with slightly cooler weather, decent cloud cover and gusty winds. Fall weather noses into the area by Sunday, as the deepening trough drives the cold front south and across the region. Moisture tied to this system will be confined to the Front Range with only isolated showers potentially clipping the highest peaks along the Divide.
424 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Humidity and temperatures will increase over the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east and winds return off the Gulf.
/issued 424 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/ Humidity and temperatures will increase over the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east and winds return off the Gulf.
1041 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Mean layer ridging persists across the Florida Keys, with a low- level axis extending southwest through Andros, the Cay Sal Bank, and central Cuba. This profile will support storms along and in the lee of the islands, especially the Lower Keys this afternoon. This would prevent this drier and more stable layer from making it to the Lower Keys.
Daily high temperatures this afternoon will range between 80-90 degrees, with the warmer readings occuring north of Interstate 44 where 22-23 Celsius 850-mb air will advect in and mix down.
646 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: LIFR Visbys have developed at KPIB and KHBG this morning as the low deck of stratus over the region degraded near these sites. Patchy fog has developed across the region this morning and will begin to become slightly more widespread, especially in the south where the low stratus has begun to degrade. Highs today will range from the lower to mid 80s. A few showers will be possible in the afternoon as a weak impulse rotating around the upper low swings through the southern portions of the region. The upper low will continue to swing through the region on Saturday night.
and Sunday Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in association with a very strong upper jet, a northward moving warm front and a cold front approaching from the Northern Plains. The warm front was not very defined early this morning, but was probably from about Black River Falls to Milwaukee at 4am. It is forecast to move a Stevens Point to Manitowoc line by midday as low level winds increase ahead of the approaching cold front and upper jet streak. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Wisconsin this evening before quickly exiting to the east after the cold front moves through. The air behind the front is drier but not much cooler, so lows tonight will be mild.
454 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas, with cold front moving through central Montana/Wyoming. Cold front races through the forecast area this morning. Deep upper trof sets up over the eastern CONUS for much of week with upper ridge along the west coast. Periodic dry cold fronts with gusty northwest winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions at times. Northwesterly winds will be strong today behind a cold front, sustained 20 to 35 kts with gusts near 50 kts, especially across northwestern SD. Cold front will move through this morning, with strong northwest winds developing behind the front. Another round of very strong northwest winds are expected Sunday, but temps should be cooler and relative humidity slightly higher.
Southerly winds will shift out of the WNW this afternoon at most TAF sites in response to a developing sfc trof near the TX/NM state line.
Some clearing is possible across northwest Montana by Sunday morning which would allow low temperatures to near the freezing mark.
High pressure will bring dry conditions with temperatures well above normal through Sunday. Our West-East oriented ridge of high pressure that is bringing temperatures 8 to 10 degrees above average is weakening as the flow amplifies and the high center begins to reconsolidate further offshore. As this happens, a strong trough will dig into the central plains.
/Issued 406 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/ Warm and humid weather will prevail today and most of Sunday in advance of a cold front that will sweep south across the area late Sunday afternoon and evening.
930 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warmer and mostly dry weather. Showers and a few storms will be back in the forecast Sunday night to midweek, as as an upper level disturbance moves through followed by a strong cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected into late week, No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Conditions have improved as the remnants of Beta and associated trough move east into the mid Atlantic early this morning. Weak high pressure will replace the trough today over the region and clouds will slowly decrease or dissipate this morning with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly sunny by afternoon. Temperatures will be much warmer today in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. High pressure will continue into tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds with fog formation likely.