Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An inverted trough extended north into southern Minnesota. Meanwhile, the ridges will see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches. The highest snow rates (possibly 1 to 2 inches an hour) will occur between 6 PM and 10 PM ahead of the dry slot. Strong subsidence in the wake of this short wave trough will result in wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and north of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin.
Gusty west and northwest winds expected across western Oklahoma terminals this afternoon behind weak cold front. Speaking of colder temperatures, temps hovering near the freezing mark across northwest Oklahoma will continue through at least 8 or 9 am with potential for at least patchy freezing drizzle.
An area of weak high pressure will settle over Oklahoma overnight, and this will result in generally clear skies with light winds.
Upstream trends show what will likely be a temporary diminishing trend in between lead disturbance and main trough/cold front tonight. Pops will quickly ramp up towards and after 00Z with the cold front approaching but Hi-Res models vary on exactly how much precip occurs across the area. There may be a brief wintry mix at the onset this morning but travel issues are not expected as temperatures stay above freezing. There will be a break from the rain early this coming week as an upper trof lifts northeast and allows a dry pattern to prevail for 3 days.
Severe-wise, greatest potential for any stronger storms will likely be focused in that area between 6-9 pm, when the high shear in the area lines up with a small peak in MUCAPE. This will linger some precipitation behind the low for a few hours, but most of the forecast area should be dry by midnight. Breezy conditions will linger into Sunday, mainly over the northern CWA, due to the pressure gradient between the storm system and high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. The highlight of this period will be with the development of another strong system over the central U.
Upper level low pressure will dig south along the west coast into southern CA by mid week.
At the surface, the freezing line generally resides along the Highway 36 corridor. These accumulations on the order of a few hundredths of an inch will occur on elevated surfaces where the temperature remains at or below freezing, with lesser amounts on the ground and roadways. The final round of precipitation is expected during the afternoon hours as a strong upper wave approaches eastern Kansas and an attendant surface cold front pushes through the area.
The area continues to be under the influence of an upper ridge over central Florida. The ridge will bring another day of very warm temperatures, with limited rain chances, mainly along and west of I-65. The severe threat should be over by the time convective line reaches the I-20/59 corridor as the low level inflow weakens and veers.
High pressure continues to keep a dry and stable airmass in place over the region. Sprawling high pressure will remain anchored from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic Ocean, fostering a continuation of Spring to early Summer like conditions. and an upper trough deepens over New England.
155 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 Warm front pushes north through the area by tonight. Cold front sweeps across on Sunday. High pressure brings dry close to Sunday and start to work week. Next low pressure system mid week. Showers will return later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to previous runs.
A frontal system will bring additional rainfall, a few thunderstorms, and perhaps a strong to severe storm or two to central Indiana tonight, before high pressure in the wake of the cold front allows some time for the area to dry out early in the week. Additional rain chances can be expected mid to late week with another low pressure system. High pressure will dominate the area through the short term, with clear skies and quiet weather. Lowered them a bit as with the cold front moving through early in the morning and cold advection ongoing much of the day, this should limit warming somewhat.
246 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 The freezing line has been slow to move northwest this afternoon with parts of north central Kansas seeing wintery precipitation through the afternoon. As this main mid-level trough continues to move north and east of Kansas, all precipitation should be northeast of the area by early evening leaving dry conditions through mid-week. Lows tonight drop into the low to mid 20s.
1135 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Weak low-level isentropic lift will sustain drizzle/freezing drizzle until around mid-morning, with surface wetbulb freezing line remaining stationary along the Kansas turnpike. This will erode the low clouds from west to east during the afternoon.
A Pacific cold front will quickly move through the area this morning, with gradually clearing skies and visibilities behind it. /issued 326 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ (Today and Tonight) As an upper trough finally moves over and east of Texas today, rain chances will end, and breezy to windy conditions will dominate this afternoon. Also, some of our northwestern counties may have patches of blowing dust this afternoon, as dust blows into those counties from the Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin.
The strongest omega and dendritic growth layer will both be well aloft during this storm, with a warmer layer with less supersaturation below. Skies will clear from southwest to northeast during the day as high pressure builds in. It will also be a fairly dry period with some small chances of precipitation later in the week as a Canadian short wave trough dips into the northern tier of the U. then merges with the southern stream long wave trough.
Surface winds southeast to southwest 10-20 kts except 15-25 kts over the higher terrain. The latest timing brings the storm in a little slower, and we now expect temperatures to allow for accumulating snows in some of the lower elevations into the early afternoon. Temps will be a few degrees warmer Sunday than today.
Drier air makes its way into the area on Sunday afternoon with temperatures warming to near freezing. While the general flow across the Lower 48 States remains quite active for most of the week, an un-phased and somewhat split flow pattern is expected to result in any major systems staying either to our south or north.
The main band of precipitation will arrive late in the TAF cycle around 10-12z as a cold front moves in.
Southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere continues with the ridge near the Bahamas. One across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and the main trough back further to the west near the Central Plains. Expect this evening will be mostly dry as the cold front stays to the west of the Mississippi River. The upper trough will lift to the northeast tonight into the Great Lakes with the cold front racing across the Mid and Lower Mississippi River Valley.
A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of and along the cold front in the evening due to weak upper level instability and strong mid level vorticity advection. The cold front will track through southern WI from west to east from around midnight to 3 or 4 am. It's fairly marginal, but the cold front will pack a punch (I'm sure it will wake people up in the middle of the night), and there is a little uncertainty about how deep we will mix once the clouds break up later Sunday morning.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over the Desert Southwest. Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat night.
1126 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 /18Z TAFS/ The low clouds and fog that were impacting the terminals will continue to quickly dissipate. A cold front will move east across the region this afternoon. A Pacific cold front will quickly move through the area this morning, with gradually clearing skies and visibilities behind it. /issued 326 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ (Today and Tonight) As an upper trough finally moves over and east of Texas today, rain chances will end, and breezy to windy conditions will dominate this afternoon. Also, some of our northwestern counties may have patches of blowing dust this afternoon, as dust blows into those counties from the Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin.
306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is lifting northward across the region. Breezy westerly winds could cause patchy blowing and drifting snow, mainly in the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills on Sunday.
A large upper level trough currently residing over the western and central CONUS will slowly push eastward today. However, the western edge of deep layer ridging will hold on across our area through this afternoon. The long run of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today, with highs in the lower-mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.
238 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018 High pressure sets up over the tri-state area today, following this morning's system.
GEFS/SREF mean shows the low rapidly moving northward from northeast MO into central WI this evening, but individual 24.
143 PM PST Sat Feb 24 2018 Slightly warmer today with dry weather and breezy westerly winds in the mountains and deserts.
The 2nd was diving down the backside of the trof over the Pac NW. The initial trof will exit to the E this eve while the upstream trof conts SE. This trof will cross the rgn tomorrow with heights temporarily building over the Wrn USA in its wake. A weak sfc trof was progressing across Neb/KS and it will become absorbed into the MO low this eve. Overall we expect warmer and mainly dry conditions.
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue through this afternoon into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. A line of strong to severe storms will organize along a cold front this afternoon and sweep west this evening with ocnl IFR cigs/vsbys and gusty winds reaching KJBR around 25/22z.
The mid/upper trough responsible for the dynamism is moving eastward across the 4-corners and intermountain west early this morning and will move over the High Plains around midday. As it does low level flow will veer with strong dry advection replacing the low level moisture. Another short wave trough in the mid and upper levels will cross the High Plains Sunday, although this one is not as strong with a range of wind speeds 15-30 mph more likely.
Otherwise, dry and warmer conditions are expected this weekend.
1005 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2018 Slightly warmer today with dry weather and breezy westerly winds in the mountains and deserts.
A dry cold front will remain stalled across southwest Montana and central Idaho into this evening. Cooler, dry and breezy (though to a lesser extent) conditions will persist into Sunday.
424 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure aloft will remain over the Four State Region as the center of the system moves into Texas and will allow daytime temperatures to climb in to the middle to upper nineties through the rest of the weekend and into the start of the work week.
This combined with a closed off upper level low just offshore California will keep chances for showers and storms through at least midweek.
Will keep an eye on north central Wisconsin during the early morning hours as total totals values were in the lower 50s. Weak low pressure drops into the area along with possible initiation with lake breeze boundaries.
An upper low over the southeastern Gulf will move very slowly to the west through the period. Highs will again be in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will remain very muggy, in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
(Sunday Night through Saturday) An upper level ridge will build from the southeast U.
Surface wise, a weak ridge lies along the Sunshine State and the adjacent coastal waters, while a tropical wave is located between the Bahamas and Andros Island.
Beginning on Sunday night, the region is under a ridge with southwest flow.
214 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will sweep offshore early tonight.
227 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 After some morning fog, an absolutely beautiful Saturday afternoon across the area with high pressure in control across the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region. The area of high pressure will drift slowly east overnight as a mid- level trough and surface cold front pushes in across the Northern Plains into MN. The mid-level trough/surface cold front will continue to push east into northwest portions of the forecast area Sunday.
410 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to the southwest with winds light out of the SW. That said, a trough axis continues to move across the region, and this is leading the development of a few showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. Models are in good agreement with heights rising in the wake of the previously mentioned trough and given the clearing skies kept at least patchy fog across a good portion of Eastern KY. Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS should result in a quiet but warm start to the period.
548 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A cold front will sweep offshore early tonight.
Today and Tonight High pressure behind departing mid-level wave will set up a warm day but with comfortable humidity.
413 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Unsettled air mass in place near the col aloft between ridge axis running from Texas to north Florida and a trough axis from a long wave to the north and large TUTT circulation over the east Gulf. Outside of rain areas, apparent temperatures have reached 110-112F ranges but rain cooled areas drop into the lower 80s.
639 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An upper level trough will sweep east across the region this evening.
601 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to spread east across the Alleghenies into the central ridge and valley region during the mid afternoon and early evening before dissipating later tonight.
For Sunday, a short wave trough will traverse the zonal flow and move through the area.
Latest GOES-16 visible imagery depicts a nice cumulus field over the area, while surface obs detail temperatures in the lower 90s. High pressure is dominating conditions at the surface, while a ridge builds in aloft. Temperatures will again be warm on Sunday with the ridge continuing to build from the southwest. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices north of 100 degrees again, particularly for the southwestern half of the FA.
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge remains extended from New Mexico east thru Texas and the Gulf Coast states out into the Atlantic, although nearly bifurcated by an inverted trough in the eastern Gulf. To the west, the upper-lvl trough remains anchored off the SoCal coast. At the sfc, return flow has abundant moisture backed up against the higher terrain and beyond, w/dewpoints in the 60s as far west as KELP. Beginning 06Z Sun, ensembles develop anomalously high PWAT over far West Texas, which should see abundant rainfall over the next couple of days as the aforementioned trough moves thru.
404 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Skies will become mostly clear tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
On Sunday, the ridge to our sern expands nwd bringing a weak disturbance or two into the southwest with limited mid level moisture.
A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a deformation axis stretching across the Great Basin and through central Utah, upstream of a deepening closed low of the SoCal coast.
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Weak high pressure will build in today. but an upper-level disturbance and reinforcing cold front will pass through the area this evening.
A weak cold front will move southeast through the forecast region late tonight and Sunday. Once the forecast cold front and upper trough moves away early in the week, the extended outlook will be dry and warmer. First, by Sunday night the upper low will be center north of Lake Winnipeg with a series of vorticity centers rotating through the trough. First, the cold front will be exiting northwestern Wisconsin Sunday night with some instability ahead of the front with MUCAPEs in the 1K to 2K range.
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper trough swinging across the northeast CONUS with a southern stream impulse approaching southern NM. This will allow a strong cold front to start pushing south. By Tue evening the front south be south of our forecast area with much cooler and drier air spilling into KS. By Wed afternoon, deep upper trough will stretch from Quebec into the northeast CONUS with nw flow aloft over the Plains. Highs Tue-Fri look to be around 10 degrees below average as they top out in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will slide east ahead of an approaching low.
155 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Expect normal to below normal temperatures and persistent coastal marine layer for the period due to a nearly stationary low pressure center offshore.
The mid to upper level ridge axis will stay over the region through the period. GOES 16 image of precipitable water shows region of higher moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico to the east-southeast of the Lower Texas coast.
234 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 One cold front will pass east of Long Island this morning, while another passes through tonight.
This afternoon's departing upper trough is forecast to swing quickly up to the Northeast U. The parent Hudson Bay low will get shoved east by an upstream trough/ridge pair over Canada. Tonight through Sunday night, mid and upper level ridging will steadily strengthen and expand over the Southeast U. Areas west of I-65 are more likely to see highs in the lower 90s.
There will be two large scale forcing areas of note upstream, a weaker wave currently crossing the Rockies into the western Plains, and other more significant lift ahead of the western Canada trough with response into MT and ND. A nice forcing couplet associated with the Canadian long wave trough will push west to east and eventually drag its current Dakotas surface reflection into NW Iowa by afternoon.
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows this tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The approach of this feature is expected to result in scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms across the region during the first half of the upcoming week, before upper ridging builds back across Texas in the wake of a Great Lakes upper trough and shunts the TUTT towards Mexico mid-week.
Near Breckenridge (which had a surface dewpoint depression of 35F), relatively weak thunderstorms already produced gusts in excess of 40 mph. /Sunday through Saturday/ An upper level ridge will build across the region during the next couple of days.
850mb temperatures a few degrees cooler supporting low to mid 90s.
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017 156 PM CDT Dry, quiet weather expected to finish the weekend, with warmer and slightly more humid conditions for Sunday. High pressure was drifting east across the forecast area this afternoon, with sunny skies and light winds making for pleasant weather. Light winds will turn southeasterly tonight as the high drifts off to the east, with clear skies and light flow allowing for the development of some patchy shallow ground fog in a few spots by sunrise Sunday morning. Ratzer 156 PM CDT Warm and somewhat humid conditions will be in place through the first couple days of the upcoming week, with drier and cooler conditions arriving for the latter half of the week.
High pressure aloft will remain over the Four State Region as the center of the system moves into Texas and will allow daytime temperatures to climb in to the middle to upper nineties through the weekend. /issued 320 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ High pressure across the region to allow for hot temperatures today with highs forecast to climb into the mid 90s.
330 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday.
Onshore gradient winds developing underneath retreating high pressure across the Treasure Coast will keep an increasing chc of coastal showers and a storm or two late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday. GFS/ECMWF consistent with axis of weak inverted trough (tropical wave) reaching SE FL coast early Sunday then crossing into the Gulf by late Sunday.
The narrow band of slightly higher PWATs oozes southeast through the forecast area between now and 00z this evening, but we'll lose the upper support as the trough swings east of central KY this afternoon. A sharp upper level trough will push through the region today bringing isld showers to the area and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Upper level ridging looks to be in place for Eclipse Day leaving our region dry.
/issued 634 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ 12Z TAFS Upper level ridging across the region will keep convective development below seasonal norms again today although isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours. At the surface broad high pressure across much of the gulf of Mexico will keep winds generally light and variable. /issued 340 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/ Late night sfc analysis shows the area mainly under the influence of high pressure centered over the nwrn Gulf. All signs point to today being another hot and mostly dry day across the forecast area, thanks to lingering ridging in place mainly to our west. Still our resident ridging aloft should keep somewhat of a limit on convective development.
Cold front entering nw ND and will be crossing the forecast area late evening and overnight. With cooler column temperatures will not be as warm.
Otherwise, the rest of the night should remain fairly quiet as weak upper-level ridging builds in across the area from the west. This will allow an upper-level trough and associated cold front to shift slowly eastward into the west half of the U. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front as both forcing and instability increase. Instability values ahead of the front are progged to be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range as dewpoint jump into the low 60s. A couple strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front as shear values are progged to 25 to 35 knot range orthogonal to the front, lending support to storm organization. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop over west central Upper Michigan along an advancing cold front and upper trough Sunday afternoon.
250 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather into tonight and Sunday, with lows near 60 degrees tonight and highs in the 80s tomorrow.
1141 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Upper ridge axis is moving over the northern plains, while a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Thermal ridge axis over the CWA today will result in very warm temperatures in the 90s. Sunday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 80s.
The highest likelihood for these thunderstorms will be in the counties along and south of I-80 into north central Kansas.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with hot high pressure over the lower Intermountain West and butting up against cool Pacific air over the western half of Canada. This afternoon: With the cold front having just moved through and the center of high pressure to the northeast over southern Alberta, wind has risen this afternoon while the pressure patterns level out. High pressure with cooler air is expected to settle into northeast Montana by the evening hours allowing winds speeds to reduce rapidly. However hot air to the southeast will begin smashing up against the exiting cooler air. Things start off close to normal temperature-wise then rise above normal levels as an upper ridge builds in.