Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
South of the boundary, a warm and moist airmass will support temps climbing into the low-mid 60s while north of the boundary, low 40s are expected. The warmer airmass to the south looks to support some instability. When combined with strong LLWS, and some curved hodographs, there appears to be a small window for strong to marginally severe storms late this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. By tonight, low pressure and its associated cold front are expected to be moving through Upper Michigan.
128 PM PST Thu Nov 10 2022 Dry and a little warmer through Friday with locally gusty northeast winds in the mountain passes and canyons.
543 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (This evening through Friday) A cold front continues to make steady progress across portions of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma at this hour (currently progged from Muleshoe to Hollis, OK). Portions of the West Texas Rolling Plains may not observe frontal passage until near/just after sunset, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the low-80s. Areas along and west of the I-27 corridor may fall below freezing (upper-20s/low-30s) owing to slightly clearer skies.
Web cams have improved across north central SD and also hard to find any evidence of freezing drizzle anywhere further east. As the high settles overhead Friday night, expect the coldest temps thus far in the season with lows below zero along and west of the Missouri River, maybe even close to 10 below over north central SD. The upper pattern is a bit convoluted in the extended with an upper low to the east, and a cut off low moving into the western CONUS and a trough in northwest Canada. Otherwise the upper pattern after will be defined by a broad central CONUS trough with low confidence weak systems thereafter.
501 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Key Messages - A substantial cold front is moving through the region. Detailed Discussion A strong cold front continues to make its way through the region. Temperatures this morning reached the low 70s in several areas. The freezing line may catch up to the precipitation across the eastern half of MO which may result in some wintery precipitation overnight across portions of NE MO. Much cooler air dominates the northern CONUS resulting in cooler temperatures for just about everyone.
622 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Rain is expected late tonight through Friday evening as low pressure crosses the region.
454 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022 Cold air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage continues to invade the CWA with the West Slope stationed right between a western ridge of high pressure and a Great Plains trough. Weak wrap around moisture is triggering a few snow showers over the high terrain of the northern mountains southward to the I-70/Vail Pass corridor. Temperatures are some 10 degrees below November 10th expectations, but light winds and sunshine are helping to take the sting out of the post cold front environment. Temperature recovery on Friday will be hampered by the continued cold air advection spilling out of Canada, with low valleys struggling to get out of the 30's and the high mountains in the 20's.
502 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Rain is expected late tonight through Friday evening as low pressure crosses the region.
306 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022 Cold air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage continues to invade the CWA with the West Slope stationed right between a western ridge of high pressure and a Great Plains trough. Weak wrap around moisture is triggering a few snow showers over the high terrain of the northern mountains southward to the I-70/Vail Pass corridor. Temperatures are some 10 degrees below November 10th expectations, but light winds and sunshine are helping to take the sting out of the post cold front environment. Temperature recovery on Friday will be hampered by the continued cold air advection spilling out of Canada, with low valleys struggling to get out of the 30's and the high mountains in the 20's.
Upper low finally beginning to push east as seen in satellite and the curl in reflectivity on the BIS radar. Ahead of the upper low track will continue to see the intense snowfall persist into the evening with model guidance indicating accumulating snow through about midnight for the NE ND and valley portions of MN.
522 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 As of 4:00 PM Thursday afternoon, the well-advertised cold front has progressed through much of the forecast area with the one exception of far southeast Kansas.
311 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Tonight through Tomorrow: The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the arrival of a cold front tomorrow, so the primary change to the current forecast through tomorrow afternoon is to nudge max temps up slightly in anticipation of more heating potential before cooler air moves in. Some top-down saturation with moisture being lifted over the cold front could produce some light rain by late afternoon, but it looks like precip may hold off until the evening with the later passage of the front.
325 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Key Messages - A substantial cold front is moving through the region. Detailed Discussion A strong cold front continues to make its way through the region. Temperatures this morning reached the low 70s in several areas. The freezing line may catch up to the precipitation across the eastern half of MO which may result in some wintery precipitation overnight across portions of NE MO. Much cooler air dominates the northern CONUS resulting in cooler temperatures for just about everyone.
Dry and slightly warmer weather during the daytime and chilly nights are expected through Friday as a weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event develops beneath building high pressure aloft. Another in a series of inside slider troughs will drop through interior California over the weekend.
603 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Tonight through Tomorrow: The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the arrival of a cold front tomorrow, so the primary change to the current forecast through tomorrow afternoon is to nudge max temps up slightly in anticipation of more heating potential before cooler air moves in. Some top-down saturation with moisture being lifted over the cold front could produce some light rain by late afternoon, but it looks like precip may hold off until the evening with the later passage of the front.
412 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 As of 4:00 PM Thursday afternoon, the well-advertised cold front has progressed through much of the forecast area with the one exception of far southeast Kansas.
The well-advertised strong cold front was moving in our NW CWA early this afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures were in the 70s and just behind the front readings were in the low to mid 40s! Scattered showers developed out ahead of the front with a thin line of stronger showers and a few thunderstorms aligned with the front. As SPC noted in an MCD, some intensification is expected in the low- topped squall line with the front, with isolated damaging wind gusts the main threat with the possibility of a brief tornado. Tonight, the strong cold front will move through the remainder of the cwa with a wintry airmass arriving on blustery northwest winds. Friday, it will be cold and blustery with sunshine returning as high pressure builds into the area.
The low pressure system has finally exited the Northern Rockies, leaving behind a significant amount of fresh snow and arctic air.
Strong cold front moving through this afternoon into tonight.
500 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Cold front has traversed across our area today, now trekking across IA.
910 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Rain is expected late tonight through Friday evening as low pressure crosses the region.
542 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 It's warm across the Midsouth as the result of a persistent ridge that will finally shift east of the area tomorrow. Cooler air will arrive tomorrow as a strong early season cold front sweeps across the area. A trough will deepen over the Plains tonight and tomorrow setting up strong Southwest flow from central and south Texas across the middle Mississippi River valley.
This will keep temperatures generally cooler than average for this time of the year, occasional breezy conditions and a few showers with each disturbance.
Highs this afternoon in the lower to mid 80s and lows tonight in the 60s to lower 70s.
928 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 At 9 pm, the cold front extended from Pittsfield to just southeast of Jefferson City, and the front was continuing to move southeast. There will be a mid level trough gliding through the area this weekend, but with dry air in place and with northwest winds at the surface there will not be much in the way of useful moisture. So this trough should pass through without much in the way of sensible weather. Some counties in the far southern portion of the forecast area, namely toward the bootheel and western Kentucky this trough may have a little better quality moisture, which may bring some chance for a rain/snow mixture with the cold air in place and some light precipitation.
830 PM PST Thu Nov 10 2022 Dry and a little warmer Friday with gusty northeast winds in the mountain passes and canyons.
253 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Currently have a deep upper trough extending from the Northern Plains down into the Desert Southwest. Within the trough there are two main pieces of energy, one moving across the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second digging into the Southwest Conus. At the surface, strong cold front stretches from IL into the Ozark region and finally into central TX. Upper trough is expected to slowly swing east late tonight and by Sat morning northwest flow aloft will be in place across the Plains.
Otherwise temperatures will be moderating some with highs into the 20s, with maybe a few locations pushing the lower 20s.
354 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Rain today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region.
310 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Eastward pressing rain showers ahead of a cold front have brought rain to parts of the east and south overnight. Amounts today look mainly confined to the higher, upslope areas of the west, with most folks in these locations likely seeing 1-2 inchs of snow. By early afternoon, expecting the western half to be hovering in the low 30s to upper 20s and near 40 in the east. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low off the Pacific NW coast, a deep trough across the upper Great Lakes down into the southern plains 00z Sat with a closed low north of Thunder Bay, Ontario. This trough move slowly east with the trough axis over the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun and into New England Sun night.
Showers will linger Today, as trough extends across area from Nicole.
1010 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Cold front has traversed across our area today, now trekking across IA.
It will be a cold night across the area with lows dropping into the single digits to single digits below zero, teens in the foothills where downsloping winds will keep temperatures a little warmer.
341 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Mostly Dry Cold Front Today -- The west-northwest wind shift with the well anticipated surface cold front will reach West Michigan's shores before sunrise and the Lansing/Jackson area by mid-day. temperatures will generally hold or fall during the day), while Lansing/Jackson may eke out one more fairly mild day near 60 before more efficient cold air advection arrives this evening with the core of the upper level trough.
1044 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 At 9 pm, the cold front extended from Pittsfield to just southeast of Jefferson City, and the front was continuing to move southeast. There will be a mid level trough gliding through the area this weekend, but with dry air in place and with northwest winds at the surface there will not be much in the way of useful moisture. So this trough should pass through without much in the way of sensible weather. Some counties in the far southern portion of the forecast area, namely toward the bootheel and western Kentucky this trough may have a little better quality moisture, which may bring some chance for a rain/snow mixture with the cold air in place and some light precipitation.
1253 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Rain today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region.
1118 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 As of 4:00 PM Thursday afternoon, the well-advertised cold front has progressed through much of the forecast area with the one exception of far southeast Kansas.
(Tonight through Friday Night) The region remains in a transition zone, in part to TD Nicole to the E over SW GA and the longwave trough digging from the Plains/Rockies into the Desert SW and Nrn Old MX. Cigs will begin to deteriorate though after 12Z as a cold front enters the region from the NW, with MVFR cigs affecting areas NW of a TYR to TXK line after 12Z, before spreading across the TXK terminal by mid-morning, and across Wrn LA by midday/early afternoon.
1032 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (This evening through Friday) A cold front continues to make steady progress across portions of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma at this hour (currently progged from Muleshoe to Hollis, OK). Portions of the West Texas Rolling Plains may not observe frontal passage until near/just after sunset, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the low-80s. Areas along and west of the I-27 corridor may fall below freezing (upper-20s/low-30s) owing to slightly clearer skies.
1252 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 07z surface analysis had high pressure from eastern MT into the southern Plains. Water vapour had upper low over northwest MN, which is swinging last slug of moisture into the CWA. - Mean upper trough settles over central North America.
Key Messages - A substantial cold front is moving through the region. Detailed Discussion A strong cold front continues to make its way through the region. Temperatures this morning reached the low 70s in several areas. The freezing line may catch up to the precipitation across the eastern half of MO which may result in some wintery precipitation overnight across portions of NE MO. Much cooler air dominates the northern CONUS resulting in cooler temperatures for just about everyone.
The warm airmass in place will keep overnight lows moderately above normal in the mid 70s with dew points not far away in the lower to mid 70s.
1134 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 (Tonight through Friday Night) The region remains in a transition zone, in part to TD Nicole to the E over SW GA and the longwave trough digging from the Plains/Rockies into the Desert SW and Nrn Old MX. Cigs will begin to deteriorate though after 12Z as a cold front enters the region from the NW, with MVFR cigs affecting areas NW of a TYR to TXK line after 12Z, before spreading across the TXK terminal by mid- morning, and across Wrn LA by midday/early afternoon.
We are still looking at possible patchy freezing fog across the Snake Plain and eastern highlands overnight and early Friday. Weak high pressure shifts over the area allowing for light winds and ideal radiational cooling tonight. With ample low-level moisture from recent snowfall, it seems like an ideal setup for fog/low stratus and with temperatures in the single digits and teens in the valleys, have continued mention of freezing fog for the overnight hours. Lows in the high country will drop below zero tonight.
338 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Mostly Dry Cold Front Today -- The west-northwest wind shift with the well anticipated surface cold front will reach West Michigan's shores before sunrise and the Lansing/Jackson area by mid-day. temperatures will generally hold or fall during the day), while Lansing/Jackson may eke out one more fairly mild day near 60 before more efficient cold air advection arrives this evening with the core of the upper level trough.
148 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Gusty winds early this morning will likely result in enough near surface mixing to keep temps up in the low 20s most areas and not bottoming out to some of the mid teen dew points across west central Kansas. A marked cooler afternoon due to the cold advection behind the front will lead to temperatures only as warm as the low 40s most areas, and struggling to exceed the 30s in locations like Hays and Pratt. The greatest uncertainty in highs will be in the south as the bias corrected models are generally warmer than the NAM and the MOS output. Following the HRRR trend, the temperatures may still be sub-freezing from Dodge City northward as of noon.
1019 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022 Cold air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage continues to invade the CWA with the West Slope stationed right between a western ridge of high pressure and a Great Plains trough. Weak wrap around moisture is triggering a few snow showers over the high terrain of the northern mountains southward to the I-70/Vail Pass corridor. Temperatures are some 10 degrees below November 10th expectations, but light winds and sunshine are helping to take the sting out of the post cold front environment. Temperature recovery on Friday will be hampered by the continued cold air advection spilling out of Canada, with low valleys struggling to get out of the 30's and the high mountains in the 20's.
Winds are generally less than 20 mph in the southeast as we are on the backside of the low. Temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday.
Tail end of upper level trof that extends from Minnesota to the 4 corners will push east today with short wave ridging pushing in from the west. The ridge will be rather dirty with satellite imagery showing mainly high clouds approaching southern CA and northern Baja. Highs today 1 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday but still running below normal. Saturday: Warmer but still a few degrees below normal.
(Today) Areas of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms continue this morning behind strong cold front.
Current surface analysis places low pressure near Park Rapids, Minnesota, lifting out toward the Great Lakes, while high pressure works its way through eastern Montana. Over the eastern parts of the state blowing and drifting snow continued in the higher wind speeds.
625 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Eastward pressing rain showers ahead of a cold front have brought rain to parts of the east and south overnight. Amounts today look mainly confined to the higher, upslope areas of the west, with most folks in these locations likely seeing 1-2 inchs of snow. By early afternoon, expecting the western half to be hovering in the low 30s to upper 20s and near 40 in the east. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low off the Pacific NW coast, a deep trough across the upper Great Lakes down into the southern plains 00z Sat with a closed low north of Thunder Bay, Ontario. This trough move slowly east with the trough axis over the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun and into New England Sun night.
Transient ridging begins to nose into the region today, bringing dry and quiet conditions to Utah and southwest Wyoming. A closed low system looks to track through the region late this weekend, though minimal impacts are anticipated.
And the winner of the highest measured rainfall is. A cold front is forecast to advect south over the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ECMWF model is hinting about the possibility of a cold front passage.
830 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Rain today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region. Scattered rain and snow showers are expected Saturday with an upper level trough. The remnants of Nicole will quickly move across the Ohio Valley, coincident with Great Lakes low pressure's cold front. High pressure will attempt to nose into the region from the southwest on Saturday.
H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over eastern North Dakota. A trough extended southwest of this feature toward the Four Corners. West of this trough, ridging extended from northern California into the NW Territories of Canada. East of the trough, the remnants of TS Nicole were located over the Florida Panhandle. North of this feature, low amplitude ridging extended from the Mid-Atlantic northwest into eastern Ontario. At the surface tonight, high pressure was located over eastern Montana.
This will be the main concern over the next few days as ridging moves over the area. Expect more of the same tomorrow, although temperatures may be a few degrees warmer as the airmass modifies a bit.
444 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Look for a transition to colder temperatures today as a strong cold front sweeps through the region with temperatures falling through the 40s this afternoon and evening. Northern Minnesota mid level cyclone lifts northeast towards James Bay late tonight. Sharp gradient to deeper moisture associated with Nicole lapping into southeast CWA later today, before being swept eastward by northern stream trough this afternoon. Secondary trough rotates through Upper Great Lakes with magnitude/depth of cold air mass increasing, sufficient for lake effect showers to develop Saturday morning into Saturday night before inversion heights lower.
Ridging moving overhead NorCal early this morning with lots of high clouds spreading in ahead of the next weather system. Dew points are currently mainly in the mid to upper 30s in the valley, and with the high clouds coming in, we will likely only see patchy frost again in the outlying areas.
Tonight through Saturday night: Low pressure currently offshore will push inland and mostly to our south through Saturday. In the meantime, cold temps with areas of low stratus and patchy freezing fog will continue this morning.
Light northerly breezes along with increasing clouds and slightly cooler temperatures are expected across the region today.
Snow in the deformation zone west and northwest of the upper low is weakening as system overall weakens. Upper level trough to remain over the area into Saturday and looks like clouds will dominate with a north-northwest wind. Waves are able to translate along the amplified ridge that is developing over the Gulf of Alaska. These ridge riding waves could bring chances for precipitation as they quickly move across the northern plains.
537 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 The cold front associated with upper level troughing in the central US has pushed through the majority of the CWA.
603 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 (Today) Areas of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms continue this morning behind strong cold front.
Behind the front, much cooler temps have swept over Nebraska, Iowa and the neighboring states. Temps will peak near freezing along the Platte River, Omaha, Glenwood, and Red Oak, IA. Areas north of there will be a couple of degrees cooler and mid-30s will be found along the Kansas state line. Lows late tonight will be about 5 degrees cooler than their lowest points this morning with a few low lying areas slipping into the single digits. Saturday's high temps will be a rerun of Friday's: about 20 degrees cooler than seasonal norms.
210 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 Just enough moisture is lingering across the area to allow for some low stratus to remain over the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning. Temperatures for Saturday look to warm a few degrees as a transient ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Saturday will start out mostly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon hours as flow aloft switches to southwesterly ahead of a cutoff low pressure dropping south through the Great Basin.
355 AM MST Fri Nov 11 2022 07z surface analysis had high pressure from eastern MT into the southern Plains. Water vapour had upper low over northwest MN, which is swinging last slug of moisture into the CWA. - Mean upper trough settles over central North America.
341 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 The cold front associated with upper level troughing in the central US has pushed through the majority of the CWA.
As the low pressure system associated with the recent snowfall continues to propagate eastward beyond the Dakotas, an upper-level ridge extending deep into Northern Canada moves east from the Pacific. This ridge will bring fair weather to the CWA, allowing temperatures to warm up slightly from the previous few days. Breezy winds continue off the Rocky Mountain Front, spreading into the plains west of I-15, bringing temperatures in the low teens to elevations above 3500 ft as far east as Great Falls and areas adjacent to the north slopes of the Little Belts.