Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT CLOSE BEHIND BEGINNING TO MOVE ASHORE. WITH THE 700 MB FLOW FROM THE WEST AND A COOLER AIR MASS THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO THE CASCADE AND SISKIYOU PASS LEVELS AND DOWN TO MT SHASTA CITY. WITH THE PERPENDICULAR 700 MB FLOW IN THE COOL AIR MASS SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE QUICKLY ERODES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT BRINGING A BROAD PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ALSO INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER WHICH HAS HELPED LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS BUT THE HIGHEST POPS AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
A pair of weather fronts will have better potential to produce more accumulating snow in the mountains and in the lowlands of north central and far northeast Washington for the weekend. We also added dense freezing fog between Chelan and Oroville and dense fog in the valleys around Northport. Overall, it will be quiet weather day with sunshine over Central WA and at times in Ern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. Once this system passes, snow chances will start to increase as a warm front begins to lift northward Friday morning and afternoon. Once the low clouds reach Wenatchee and Moses Lake, there is little to improve conditions until the next storm system Friday night which will bring widespread snow into Central WA.
Many reports have come in regarding the prolonged snowfall occurring in parts of northwest Montana, namely: the northern Flathead valley, Highway 2 through Essex and Marias Pass, and across all of the high terrain of the Whitefish, Glacier, and northern Swan mountain ranges. Surface observations have been showing a mix of freezing rain, fog, and snow in valley locations, while the high terrain continues to receive moderate snow. A cold front is passing through the region so and increase in west winds have been observed and snow levels will continue to lower today. As weather systems go this one has had quite the mix from moderate snow to freezing rain and fog. Snow levels have generally been around 3500-4000 feet but are currently lowering with the passage of a cold front.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT RELATIVELY SLOWLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
342 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 A WAVE FORMED ON THE COASTAL TROUGH AND HAS PUSHED EAST INTO THE LA GULF WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AT THE COAST AND SE TO S INLAND.
1039 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ENJOY THE BRIEF MILD WEATHER AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT USHERING ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN BETWEEN THE STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS.
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN NW AL WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THE STRONGEST.
ONCE THE LOW-LEVELS COOL. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AT KDRT TO NEAR 10Z I-35 CORRIDOR AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN WELL EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OUT WEST WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT. ACTUALLY MORE OF A SFC TROF WITH LITTLE TO NO COOLING BEHIND IT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH THIS TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL STEER THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
AS IT DIGS PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MANY PLACES WILL SEE SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION.
340 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SHORT WAVE TOPPING RIDGE WILL CROSS THE NWRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND DROP INTO INTO MANITOBA LONG WAVE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
1203 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED FLURRIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
WE WILL LEAVE POPS/WX AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH SOME HEATING PERHAPS HELPFUL AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE CLOSES IN FAST WITH ANY DRY SLOTTING STILL IN FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
The S-SW flow at the surface will continue as an area of LOW pressure approaches our area from the northwest-- reaching the MN/IA border late today. Regarding temps, the dropping pressure at the surface and passage of a RIDGE aloft will result in much higher thicknesses (and temps) than 24hrs ago, to something along the lines of what was seen in western KS, where max temps ranged from the mid 50s to around 60. For much of our region, this is exactly what is being forecast which is at or slightly above the higher MAV MOS numbers.
1203 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
/issued 246 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ A series of upper level troughs will move quickly across the plain states through the weekend. The first upper level trough will move across the northern and central plains today and tonight. Downslope flow near the trough combined with plenty of sunshine should help boost temperatures to above normal values today. These troughs are forecast this weekend to take a far more southeasterly track across the forecast area.
344 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE COLD A MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL AND RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH WIDE RIDGE AXIS IN BETWEEN /OMEGA BLOCK/. AS ENERGY /SHORT WAVES/ MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND EJECTS INTO THE BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
309 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ARE COOLING AND WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND 20S THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THE PRECIP TYPE TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.
1118 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 /18Z TAFS/ After a morning of IFR and MVFR ceilings across many West Central Texas locations, the low clouds have broken up and dissipated. Low level southwest flow will cause the low clouds to dissipate by late this morning as drier air is advected in, with VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF forecast period. As another cold front moves into West Central Texas, winds will shift and come from the west by midnight. The cold front will continue to push south and east of West Central Texas Friday. With decreasing temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs Friday will be cooler, mainly in the 60 to 65 range. Overnight Friday night, an upper-level trough will push into Texas from the west.
/ISSUED 337 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ WARMER AND WINDIER WEATHER ON THE WAY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CHIHUAHUA WILL OPEN UP WITH THE RESULTANT TROUGH MOVING OVER SW TEXAS THEN CENTRAL TO EAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH EJECTS JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS HIGHER CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS AGAIN. FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH DIFFUSE SURFACE RIDGING FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT/S TROUGH AND DRY COLD FRONT. THIS RIDGE IS STILL SHOWN TO RELAX AND EVENTUALLY RETREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH IN NW FLOW. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR WET BULB COOLING IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OR SO WHICH WOULD POINT TO A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
1215 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO WITH TEMPORARY VISIBILITY IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS SUGAR LAND/HOBBY AS AN ASSOCIATED COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EAST INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS ALONG THE COAST. /ISSUED 940 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ CLOUDY SKIES WITH 3-6 MI FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR WHILE OFFSHORE A COASTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION BEFORE WINDS RESPOND TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL TROUGH A SHORT WINDOW OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM SO WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
1112 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL TURN EAST DUE TO THE BACKING EFFECT OF THE COOLER NEARSHORE AND GULF SIDE WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. EVENTUALLY THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERWHELM THE COOLER WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND.
338 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROF THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING IS MOVING EAST WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BAND OF SNOW MOVING THRU THE WASATCH FRONT AT THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO START SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE NRN CWA TONIGHT WITH THE TROF AXIS CROSSING THE CWA FRI MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING UP TO 6000 TO 7000 FT N TO S FOR A TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR SAT EVE THEN LOWERING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROF ARRIVES.
351 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 The steadier rains are finally moving out of the forecast area, but scattered areas of light rain and drizzle will still occur tonight into at least early Monday until a Pacific cold front moves across the area and scours out the shallow low level cold air.
411 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CONTINUED DRYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
OBS CURRENTLY HAVE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 60S AT 17Z WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING ONTO ITS PLACE IN THE GULF. WITH THE FLATTER FORMATION OF THE RIDGE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST WITH AN APPARENT TEMP CHANGE JUST ACROSS THE MS BORDER BUT IT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTED IN WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THUS INCREASED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE OUR DAYTIME HIGHS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES CLOSER.
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. /ISSUED 422 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE RETAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. A DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER UTAH WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS TOMORROW EVENING. TOP DOWN METHOD USING MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR FREEZING FOG TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THIS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START BY LATE MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
200 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2015 A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY. SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO SHOULD MAINTAIN A LIQUID PCPN TYPE INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER KOFK WILL BE THE EXCEPTION BUT PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT THERE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MOVE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE GIVEN IT OUR BEST SHOT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LINGERING AREAS OF FREEZING FOG IN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS ENERGY FROM UPPER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE ARKLATX REGION.
322 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW ROUGHLY ALONG A NASHVILLE- DECATUR AL- JACKSON MS LINE, THANKS TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SIMILAR GRADIENT FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER WEST TO WARM PERSISTENCE EAST. DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME MONDAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LIFTING THE FRONT NORTHWARD. POPS WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST, DRAGGING THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
143 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
323 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DUMBBELL EAST THEN NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UTAH DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY. AS THE ORIGINAL UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH LITTLE TO EXPEDITE THE CYCLONE OUT OF THE AREA.
337 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
354 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COOLER AIR IS SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK.
IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER MAYBE IN THE LOW 60S. /ISSUED 557 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 60S. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
1123 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 70 THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RETURNS UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING A SLOW CLEARING TREND N OF THE PA/WV/MD BORDER TODAY. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES E ALONG A COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY IN REACTION TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATEEASTWARD AS A CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE OPENING UP. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE SE STATES BY LATE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING DOWN THE STATE MID- LATE WEEK AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER LATE WEEK. RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES PER OCEAN RESCUE, SO THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
In the very near term, a narrow axis of freezing rain showers was occurring from northeast through central into south central Kansas. The focus will then shift to the upper low itself, as it will finally make its way into the Central Plains. The base of this upper low will be quite perturbed with a couple of subsynoptic scale vorticity maxima pivoting around the south end of the upper low, and ultimately ejecting northeast which will provide enhanced downstream upward vertical motion from southwest Kansas into Nebraska later on this evening. As far as the rest of the week goes, a gradual warming trend will take place as an upper tropospheric ridge builds out west. There is no sign of any additional arctic air intrusion on the High Plains in the foreseeable future.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON THROUGH MONDAY.
818 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2015 A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
435 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND RIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
310 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 THE UA LOW THAT JUST WON/T QUIT WAS STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT BASIN NW TO NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD EQUATE/DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND IF SO. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PLAUSIBLE. CONCERNS MAY INCREASE FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN BECOMING SLICK. HAVE ELECTED NOT TO HAVE ANY HIGHLIGHTS WRT POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE /ONLY DRIZZLE IS IN THE WX GRIDS/ AS IT IS TOO CLOSE OF A CALL TO KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER TEMPS WILL INDEED DROP BELOW FREEZING AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE NIGHT /GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/.
GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
1228 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARD MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING.
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TODAY. THEN RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
215 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HUNG UP JUST WEST OF NASHVILLE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK.
A deep layer ridge will remain across the Southeast, though weaker and shifted a bit farther east than 24 hours ago.
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
337 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 (Tonight and Monday) The persistent upper low over the four corners area is starting to finally move off to the northeast.
141 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 70 THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE RETURNS UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING A SLOW CLEARING TREND N OF THE PA/WV/MD BORDER TODAY. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES E ALONG A COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY IN REACTION TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US.
200 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Area radars show rainfall has finally cleared the lwr Trans Pecos, whereas WV imagery showdrier air intruding into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as the upper trough begins migrating to the upper Midwest. At the sfc, winds have gone light/variable, and temps have climbed abv freezing everywhere.
MEANTIME A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BUT TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER KY AND MIDDLE TN WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
131 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE VORT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS THE LOWEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HIGHEST. THERE WILL ONLY BE A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORTIVE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY.
SEA FOG HAS MIXED IN WITH THE LOW CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHILE FOG HAS ALSO PLAGUED INLAND SITES SUCH AS LFT AND AEX. /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT ANALYZED THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM EAST OF MONROE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE BISECTING THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY ALEXANDRIA TO JUST WEST OF LAKE CHARLES. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING FROM 10-15 DEGREES COOLER BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THICKEN WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
327 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 APPRECIABLE RAIN HAS FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK.
A ridge of high pressure continues over the Northern Rockies causing strong valley inversions. Areas under the low clouds will have fairly small minimum to maximum temperature changes. While areas clear of the low clouds will experience temperatures swings of 20 to 30 degrees.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK EXPANDING INTO THEM. MOST LIKELY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE LOW STRATUS HAS EXPANDED TO THE WEST AND NORTH INTO BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. BUT GENERALLY THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS.
1145 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CHARGE THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT WIND.
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT SO MUCH OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. EXCEPT IN NW PARTS OF THE FA WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG BECOMES HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.