Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BUT THEY ARE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THIS WAY AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOL AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TONIGHT/S UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS UPPER-LEVEL CROSSES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
AND THAT AREA HAS STARTED OUT WARMER THAN PROJECTED. CONTINUING TO MONITOR TEMPS AND APPEARS ALL AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. ACTUALLY AREAS CLOSEST TO FREEZING ARE BANKS COUNTY. TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. THEY BOTH SHOW THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FL THU MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z FRI. AS THIS LOW CENTER MOVES NE IT PULLS THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE GA COAST ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD NE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. THIS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GA/FL BORDER BY SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT TRAILED BY POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT 3 AM AROUND THE MIDSOUTH A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE STRETCHED FROM GRENADA MISSISSIPPI NORTHEAST TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BOUNDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIND TOO MANY COMPLAINTS ON THE WEATHER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS EXTREMELY PLEASANT.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
The main band of snow was back to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, where temperatures were in the lower to mid 30s. 21 (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) By Wednesday night, the upper level trough will be replaced by dry north/northwest flow aloft.
A STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
Strato-cumulus clouds have held tough overnight due to continued cold air advection in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere and approaching short wave energy over the Corn Belt. The presence of these clouds and continued cold air advection will result in temperatures struggling to warm out of the lower to middle 30s. Sunshine along with a downslope flow off the plateau will result in temperatures warming into the lower to middle 40s. With light winds and a clearing trend, we have gone on the low side of temperature guidance. Lows are expected to be in the lower 20s over most areas.
A STRONG 500HPA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND 850HPA WAA IS ALSO EVIDENT. ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HINT TOWARD A COOLER NIGHT.
302 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARM.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH AFTERNOON READINGS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER AT HARRISON AND MENA. WHILE THE DELTA REGION WILL BE COOLER.
252 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
Dry weather for interior NorCal the next several days as strong high pressure covers the West Coast.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE/DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER DAY FOR REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TONIGHT-THU: RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK FRONT EDGES INTO AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN SO HIGHS SUN WILL BE COOLER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
346 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER 40S NOW OBSERVED IN HALEYVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS THIS HOUR. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHARPENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING IS ALIGNED ALONG 32 NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ABOUT 75 WEST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FROM 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY. WITH NEAR 15 KNOTS NOW IN COOLER FLORIDA BAY.
348 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S. SECONDARY VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE/POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT ALL PRESENT CHALLENGES IN DETERMINING THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
DIRTY RIDGE WITH HIGH CLOUDS /AND SPOTS OF LOW STRATUS/ OVER THE AREA BROUGHT A WIDE RANGE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
1119 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWER PROFILE TO REACH THE PRIME LAYER FOR SNOW GROWTH. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BUT WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
155 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.
ONCE THE FOG ERODES AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT EAST LOOKING AT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. BUT FOR NOW THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD OVERWHELM THIS THREAT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR AREA. ESPECIALLY ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
/ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FRONT AND ITS RAIN OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
1157 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. AND FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S. LL THERMAL TROUGHING DOES NOT REACH SUFFICIENT INTENSITY UNTIL THIS EVENING TIME W/APCH AND PASSAGE OF UPSTREAM SECONDARY DROPPING THROUGH WRN MN ATTM TO TO POINT OF ACTIVATING POTENTIAL LK EFFECT -SHSN. AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
Pockets of very light freezing rain possible valleys of western.
310 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 The longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region down through Texas has been progressing to the East all day. This has allowed for continued subsidence over northeastern Kansas associated with a longwave ridge building over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. But it seems reasonable that again with some snow cover in place generally North of I-70 that temps will be held down just a bit reaching low to mid 40s while areas generally South of I-70 see high temps in the low 50s for Wednesday. Considering the low level moisture due to associated snow and recent melt off, have inserted some areas of fog over remaining snowpack and just patchy areas outside of that generally along or north of I-70. While models show two mid-level troughs skimming across the northern U.
and expect even warmer temps tomorrow afternoon as low-level flow becomes southwesterly. A broad positive-tilt trof will pass through the area by late Wednesday. bringing a brief return to weak downslope flow and even slightly warmer afternoon readings.
1246 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.
At the surface, this morning's cold front has stalled out across the Appalachians with light overrunning rain showers or drizzle continuing across the Lake Cumberland region.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. THUS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THUS IMPACTS FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH TODAY, WITH SNOW BEING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
/ISSUED 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ OUR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO SE MS AND SE LA INTO THE NRN GULF AS OF 17Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR W NOW DIGGING S THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SRN NM/FAR NRN MX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE AND THICKEN BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. HAVING RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA ALONG/S OF I-20.
304 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 Precipitation mostly in the form of snow is falling across portions of the area with the heaviest precipitation currently falling across the Lower Trans Pecos, Davis/Apache Mountains, and the southern Permian Basin. Models are showing precipitation lingering across the lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin into this evening. The upper level trough that was over the area today will begin to move eastward on Wednesday.
THE COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY CLEARED THE AREA. OVERRUNNING WILL SET UP UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OUT AND MODIFIES. AND THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE SUPPORTING LIFT MOVES OFFSHORE.
255 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 Above normal temperatures will be the primary focus over the next several days, as ridging builds over the High Plains and surface winds turn to the west southwest.
A positively tilted long wave trough stretches from Hudson Bay southwest to northern Mexico this afternoon with southwesterly flow aloft across the Gulf Coast states. Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes southwest to the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move through the forecast area overnight.
1137 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING.
349 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH LEE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN AB INTO NORTHEAST WY. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME CI SPILLING OVER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KNOCKING DOWN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING MAINTAINING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXIT OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
100 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN STRONGLY OVER COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
Otherwise high pressure the rule with dry weather forecast.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH OVERRUNNING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
THE 12 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHICH LOWERS SOME CONFIDENCE FOR ENOUGH ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN PLAINS.
Where the clouds have cleared temperatures have warmed to around the 40 degree mark, where the clouds remain across central MO temperatures in the low to mid 30s are occurring. Will have to watch for the clouds building back over central Missouri this evening after sunset, but if this occurs clouds should clear overnight as an upper level trough passes south through the region. No precipitation will occur with the passage of the trough. Lows will drop into the lower to middle 20s overnight tonight. A warming trend will then occur Wednesday as upper level ridging builds into the Plains. Highs on Wednesday will range from the middle 40s across central Missouri to the lower 50s across extreme southwestern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.
110 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW AREAS TRANSITIONING FROM LIQUID DRIZZLE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION CONTINUES BELOW 2000 FEET IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ROAD SURFACES HAVE EXPERIENCED TWO DAYS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. BUT SIGNIFICANT WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.
151 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
320 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S. SECONDARY VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN LARGER SCALE/POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
Upper flow was beginning to transition from southwest to northwest over the Central Plains with mean trough axis slowly moving east of the region. Northwest flow in the lower levels stretches well into the Northern Plains with stratus deck rather solid from eastern Kansas northwest across much of North Dakota. Low level winds back to the west-southwest tonight as weak high pressure moves out Kansas. Clipper system moving into the Great Lakes leads a mid level thermal ridge over the forecast area, and should boost high temperatures back in the upper 40s to near 50, a few degrees cooler over residual snowpack.
BUT BACKING FLOW AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN WILL CAUSE TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
/ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SOUTH TX AND THE TX COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
250 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
This will bring a chance of light valley rain and mountain snow, and possibly some isolated spot of freezing rain.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST MUCH OF THIS WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE. 12Z KVEF SOUNDING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS (APPROXIMATELY 8 DEG C AT 500 MB AND 4 DEG C AT 700 MB) BUT THE LOW LEVELS HAVE COOLED (AROUND 2 DEG C AT 850 MB), NO DOUBT INFLUENCED BY THE APPROACHING RIDGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CAA, RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE WANING COLD AIR ADVECTION (EXPECTED DECREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON) AND THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S VALUES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER SO FAR TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
1245 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS EVENING WILL THEN BE BREEZY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AREAS VERY LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST.
230 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
THOUGH RADAR TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS HAS BEEN GENERALLY DECREASING AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST TODAY TO KEEP TEMPS MOST AREAS RATHER COOL FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON. RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CO ON WED AND THU.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/500MB ANALYSIS HAS A RATHER TIGHT/CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN WI. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW WERE PREVALENT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN WISCONSIN. SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING THINNING STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN WARMER AIR LATE THURSDAY WEST RIVER.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW UPPER LOW CONTINUING EAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF TODAY ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N-S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. EVEN SO WITH COOLER COLUMN IN PLACE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A BIT BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
138 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE LIKELY SLICK AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THE JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
203 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO MOVE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
620 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AND NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE SE AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S WITH SELY ATLC SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND STRETCH FROM GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL KICK OFF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER INLAND AREAS.
332 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 (Today and Tonight) A dryline will move across the forecast area this morning followed by a Pacific cold front this afternoon, resulting in increasing west winds of 20 to 30 mph, with higher gusts. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms south of a line form Junction to San Saba this evening, otherwise, post-frontal temperatures tonight will be in the lower 40s across all of the forecast area.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL BE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER. A SECOND HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.