Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm front continues to slowly progress northward across the region today, along this front we're experiencing some weak isentropic lift leading to scattered showers. Tomorrow we can expect temperatures to be much warmer under sunnier skies and a stronger ridge. However, coverage of any storms tomorrow should be limited with the best chances being along the higher terrain.
242 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will gradually build east into New England through Thursday.
128 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front lifts northward today and tonight. A warm front will slowly push northward across the region today and tonight, providing some showers. This front represents a major shift in the pattern, with the cooler upper level trough being replaced by much warmer ridging. Warm front will lift north across the area on Thursday. Southwesterly flow, along with building upper heights, will create a nice warm up, with high temperatures on Thursday possibly reaching the lower 80s in some locations.
300 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 The trough slowly meanders across the area tonight and Thursday, which will prolong the chance for scattered showers.
07z surface analysis had low over southeast WY with warm front into eastern MT and trough from eastern MT into IA. Trough will be the focus for afternoon convection as it intersects the higher terrain and interacts with 250-750J/kg MLCAPE. Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer. Trough will be the focus for diurnally driven showers/TS Thursday afternoon/early evening, especially near the Black Hills given terrain influence and enhanced low level moisture convergence.
329 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
Warm front has lifted through far SE OK and will continue to advance northward through the day.
Given that the rapid refresh models show these storms developing across scntl Nebraska, confidence is on the low side.
355 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer temperatures are expected the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chances. Dry weather should continue most of the night as high pressure moves east across the region. Scattered showers are expected toward morning south of PIT as a warm front moves north across the Ohio Valley region. Lows should be warmer than last night, though still around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
1241 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Cumulus cloud field generally lingering at the high end MVFR to low end VFR levels this afternoon.
High pressure will briefly build later tonight into Thursday morning.
400 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Tradewind flow pattern turns the corner of the Atlantic ridge into central Louisiana this afternoon and evening.
308 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front is currently near the MO/AR border and will continue to slowly lift northward through the forecast area tonight. As for later tonight, numerous CAMs indicating MU CAPES between 500 to 1200 J/kg for portions of central/northeast MO and west central IL between 06z and 12z Thursday along and north of the warm front. Then will have a bit of a break in activity by mid morning on Thursday before main cold front begins to slide south through the forecast area. Ahead of cold front will continue to see increasing low level moisture, steep lapse rates, effective bulk shear around 30kts, and decent instability with ML CAPES between 2000 and 3000 J/kg. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 60s.
Nearly to slightly warmer temperatures are expected again for Thursday, with mild overnight temperatures in the 70s.
134 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer temperatures are expected the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chances. Daytime highs will be warmer this afternoon but still be about 5 to 10 degrees below the climatological normal. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
High pressure moves off the coast of the Carolinas and remains to the northeast of the region maintaining a persistent onshore flow. Lows tonight will range from the low 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. Highs tomorrow will moderate into the mid/upper 80s toward the I-75 corridor with the coast remaining cooler in the upper 70s.
347 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will prevail into late week while low pressure likely develops near the Bahamas and then shifts northeast staying well offshore this weekend.
237 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Showers continue to move northward ahead of the warm front that is now just entering the mid state.
142 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be lingering showers today and this evening, another round tonight north, then dry and warmer conditions for Thursday. This will bring a clearing sky and warmer temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
301 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 A warm front draped very close to the AR/TN borders this afternoon will lift slowly north across the forecast region late this afternoon and tonight.
322 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday, around 10 degrees below normal.
With low-level southerly flow & higher boundary layer moisture, expect lingering cloud cover overnight & warmer night with above normal lows, around 5+ degrees, in the low-mid 60s. Highs will again be near normal & peak into the low-mid 80s, even with any morning low- level cloud deck.
/issued 1015 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ A warm front located just over the Memphis area will continue to push northward today. Behind the front winds are shifting to the south and temperatures are warming to the lower 70s. A warm front, currently draped across far north Mississippi, will continue to slowly drift to the north through the morning hours. Weak ridging will be in place tonight through the first half of Thursday resulting in a brief dry period. As broad ridging across the southeast states shifts east on Thursday, moist southwest flow aloft will gradually return.
Short wave trough was bringing a good area of rain showers in western sd late this morning with it moving towards north central sd. Otherwise, we may have some breaks in the low clouds today but overall it should remain mostly cloudy except for central sd. Temps will be held back some in the east underneath thicker cloud cover/precip chances while warmer aftn readings will be possible west. Can't rule out an instability shower or two Thursday afternoon given the proximity of the mid lvl wave to our north, but most areas should be drier and a bit warmer.
327 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Short wave trough bringing a few light showers to north central sd this afternoon with some development into northeast sd where Aberdeen just reported a light shower. Otherwise, the low clouds may be hard to move out the region tonight with the low level wind profile along with higher rh. Winds will become west to northwest on Thursday with drier air moving in bringing mostly sunny skies with warmer temperatures and highs mostly in the 60s. We will begin to see the affects of the next upper trough after midnight in the southwest cwa.
1137 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Short wave trough was bringing a good area of rain showers in western sd late this morning with it moving towards north central sd. Otherwise, we may have some breaks in the low clouds today but overall it should remain mostly cloudy except for central sd. Temps will be held back some in the east underneath thicker cloud cover/precip chances while warmer aftn readings will be possible west. Can't rule out an instability shower or two Thursday afternoon given the proximity of the mid lvl wave to our north, but most areas should be drier and a bit warmer.
1015 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 A warm front located just over the Memphis area will continue to push northward today. Behind the front winds are shifting to the south and temperatures are warming to the lower 70s. A warm front, currently draped across far north Mississippi, will continue to slowly drift to the north through the morning hours. Weak ridging will be in place tonight through the first half of Thursday resulting in a brief dry period. As broad ridging across the southeast states shifts east on Thursday, moist southwest flow aloft will gradually return.
349 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Latest surface observations show a warm front approaching the Tennessee/Kentucky border, extending down towards central Arkansas. As this front lifts, weak ridging and southerly winds will bring warmer overnight temperatures to the area. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s. However, this weak ridging wont last for too long as the main ridge shifts eastward. By Thursday evening a convective line or complex looks to drop south from a slowing cold front to the north. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 80s.
Convective instability has been limited on the plains to the east of the Black Hills so far due to the low clouds that were over that area through most of the morning, however with increased insolation this afternoon expect MLCAPE to increase to around 250-750J/KG during the rest of the afternoon. Tonight into Thursday, an upper low traveling along the US/Canadian border will push another trough into the forecast area which will will be the focus for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms again on Thursday afternoon/early evening, especially near the Black Hills, given terrain influence and enhanced low level moisture convergence.
A warm front will move up from the southwest overnight and light rain could overspread the area by morning, but mainly focusing near the warm front across southern Michigan. However, this may be hampered by morning showers and clouds which could keep the low levels too cool. Temperatures will finally be near normal tonight and tomorrow with overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s, and daytime highs expected to be in the 70s, assuming the warm front makes it far enough north.
The aforementioned warm front is still to our south, and will only slowly work northward overnight. Going with a dry forecast for Thursday, along with much warmer temps. A compact upper wave will be moving east over International Falls MN, with a sfc cold front draped from Lake Michigan southwest to the southern Plains.
Upper air analysis shows a low-level ridge positioned over the southeast US while a southern stream mid level trof axis was aligned from LA southward into the northwest Gulf. The high resolution guidance suggests that the Gulf activity will weaken before making it onshore during the afternoon with maybe a few hit and miss showers popping up over the interior. A warmer night on tap. A breezy day expected as well with highs slightly warmer in the northeast zones along the I-65 corridor with numbers ranging from 79 to 83 coast, northwest up across interior southeast MS.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A swift 500 mb short wave trough will approach from the west tonight. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s. A modest short wave ridge will move over- head.
Weak upper level low offshore will move inland Thursday night.
128 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
Isolated thunderstorms can still not be completely ruled out in the late afternoon and early evening across the lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin due to strong heating locally breaking the cap along the dryline.
121 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer temperatures are expected the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chances. Daytime highs will be warmer this afternoon but still be about 5 to 10 degrees below the climatological normal. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
122 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer weather will return over the next several days, but the chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 81 62 83 62 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 80 60 83 59 / 20 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 80 60 83 59 / 20 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 77 55 80 56 / 30 10 10 10 10.
Observations indicate that the dry-line is stretching NNE to SSW across the Permian Basin, with dewpoints in the mid 40s to the west of the dry-line, and dewpoints in the low 60s to the east of it. Damaging winds could also occur, and a tornado cannot be ruled out due to strong veering the low levels. The trough axis and will be east of our area by early Thursday morning, and any lingering storms over our eastern counties should be ending by sunrise. Thursday will likely be warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, as the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens over the region.
255 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 An expansive high pressure system centered west of Bermuda reaches well to the southwest across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 80 with dewpoints near 70.
341 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Key Message: Thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe, continue to look possible tomorrow afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front advancing through the area. The diffuse warm front will have lifted north through the area by the overnight hours but become stationary from north central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. But overall, the aforementioned boundary will move southward as a cold front and be situated mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.
308 PM MDT Wed May 13 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery depicted a southwest flow aloft with a short wave trough moving into central and eastern WY. Another short wave trough will approach the region late Thursday with scattered afternoon convection developing.
The warm front has lifted north into KY/MO, leaving the entire Mid-South in the warm sector. This will result in benign weather overnight with overnight lows generally in the low/mid 60s. /issued 349 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ Latest surface observations show a warm front approaching the Tennessee/Kentucky border, extending down towards central Arkansas. As this front lifts, weak ridging and southerly winds will bring warmer overnight temperatures to the area. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s. However, this weak ridging wont last for too long as the main ridge shifts eastward. By Thursday evening a convective line or complex looks to drop south from a slowing cold front to the north. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 80s.
305 PM PDT Wed May 13 2020 Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures continue through Thursday.
625 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Short wave trough bringing a few light showers to north central sd this afternoon with some development into northeast sd where Aberdeen just reported a light shower. Otherwise, the low clouds may be hard to move out the region tonight with the low level wind profile along with higher rh. Winds will become west to northwest on Thursday with drier air moving in bringing mostly sunny skies with warmer temperatures and highs mostly in the 60s. We will begin to see the affects of the next upper trough after midnight in the southwest cwa.
657 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today, then pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will push into the region late Thursday, then this frontal boundary will oscillate over the region through the upcoming weekend.
721 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Warm front is currently near the MO/AR border and will continue to slowly lift northward through the forecast area tonight. As for later tonight, numerous CAMs indicating MU CAPES between 500 to 1200 J/kg for portions of central/northeast MO and west central IL between 06z and 12z Thursday along and north of the warm front. Then will have a bit of a break in activity by mid morning on Thursday before main cold front begins to slide south through the forecast area. Ahead of cold front will continue to see increasing low level moisture, steep lapse rates, effective bulk shear around 30kts, and decent instability with ML CAPES between 2000 and 3000 J/kg. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 60s.
722 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer temperatures are expected the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chances. Dry weather should continue most of the night as high pressure moves east across the region. Scattered showers are expected toward morning south of PIT as a warm front moves north across the Ohio Valley region. Lows should be warmer than last night, though still around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
819 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a plume of moisture over the Florida Straits associated with a developing area of low pressure. A tight pressure gradient between this feature and strong surface ridging north of Florida helped to produce breezy easterly winds, and these breezy winds will persist overnight and Thursday as the area of low pressure continues to develop and shift east. A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of the waters and a developing area of low pressure south of Florida is creating breezy east winds, which will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions through at least Thursday morning.
311 PM MDT Wed May 13 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery depicted a southwest flow aloft with a short wave trough moving into central and eastern WY. Another short wave trough will approach the region late Thursday with scattered afternoon convection developing.
Surface analysis depicts a stationary front over the Straits, with a large high pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast and extending from east of Bermuda into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a weak mid level trough is located over the central Gulf of Mexico and moving slowly eastward.
653 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will prevail into late week while low pressure likely develops near the Bahamas and then shifts northeast staying well offshore this weekend.
Otherwise, the mid level water vapor satellite loops show an upper level low currently near Havre Mt moving east. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be lingering showers today and this evening, another round tonight north, then dry and warmer conditions for Thursday. This will bring a clearing sky and warmer temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
/issued 349 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ Latest surface observations show a warm front approaching the Tennessee/Kentucky border, extending down towards central Arkansas. As this front lifts, weak ridging and southerly winds will bring warmer overnight temperatures to the area. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s. However, this weak ridging wont last for too long as the main ridge shifts eastward. By Thursday evening a convective line or complex looks to drop south from a slowing cold front to the north. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 80s.
Strengthening southerly flow should keep temperatures around or slightly cooler than current values.
628 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Key Message: Thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe, continue to look possible tomorrow afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front advancing through the area. The diffuse warm front will have lifted north through the area by the overnight hours but become stationary from north central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. But overall, the aforementioned boundary will move southward as a cold front and be situated mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.
704 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure axis is off the eastern coast this evening and southerly return flow is bringing moisture into the region, starting a generally more cloudy set up. With low-level southerly flow & higher boundary layer moisture, expect lingering cloud cover overnight & warmer night with above normal lows, around 5+ degrees, in the low-mid 60s. Highs will again be near normal & peak into the low-mid 80s, even with any morning low- level cloud deck.
Early afternoon WV/IR imagery depicted a southwest flow aloft with a short wave trough moving into central and eastern WY. Another short wave trough will approach the region late Thursday with scattered afternoon convection developing.
421 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 The trough slowly meanders across the area tonight and Thursday, which will prolong the chance for scattered showers.
Low pressure lingering off the Pac NW coast will keep the forecast area cool with periods of rain through Thursday. Low pressure shifts inland Thursday around Vancouver, BC.
526 PM MDT Wed May 13 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery depicted a southwest flow aloft with a short wave trough moving into central and eastern WY. Another short wave trough will approach the region late Thursday with scattered afternoon convection developing.
A short wave trough is rapidly approaching our CWA from Oregon this evening.
926 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Warmer temperatures are expected the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity and rain chances. Dry weather should continue most of the night as high pressure moves east across the region. Scattered showers are expected toward morning south of PIT as a warm front moves north across the Ohio Valley region. Lows should be warmer than last night, though still around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Thursday will be much warmer as a warm front shifts northward.
The upper low that brought successive bands of precipitation through the region then opens with showers tapering off as the upper trough moves inland Thursday evening into Thursday night.
628 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will gradually build east into New England through Thursday.
Upper low and associated line of showers/isolated thunderstorms now moving past Wolf point and Miles City. Otherwise, the mid level water vapor satellite loops show an upper level low currently near Havre Mt moving east. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be lingering showers today and this evening, another round tonight north, then dry and warmer conditions for Thursday. This will bring a clearing sky and warmer temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Temps settle into the low/mid 60s inland, and upper 60s/near 70 degrees along the coast. Rising to the low 80s inland with some mid 80s in western Lake County.
1005 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020 High pressure will prevail into late week while low pressure likely develops near the Bahamas and then shifts northeast staying well offshore this weekend.
The trough slowly meanders across the area tonight and Thursday, which will prolong the chance for scattered showers.
Short wave trough bringing a few light showers to north central sd this afternoon with some development into northeast sd where Aberdeen just reported a light shower. Otherwise, the low clouds may be hard to move out the region tonight with the low level wind profile along with higher rh. Winds will become west to northwest on Thursday with drier air moving in bringing mostly sunny skies with warmer temperatures and highs mostly in the 60s. We will begin to see the affects of the next upper trough after midnight in the southwest cwa.
The next weak trough begins to sweep across the northern Rockies Thursday morning, with some midlevel diffluence moving across the state during the afternoon.