Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
356 AM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Primary forecast concern will be ongoing strong winds across the wind prone areas, which are showing signs of spreading into the high valleys and high plains early this morning. Kept the High Wind Warning going until 500 PM local time due to the expected slow decline in pressure gradients along with the expected boundary layer mixing this afternoon. By tonight, Canadian upper level trough and surface cold front will move south across the area resulting in colder temperatures and a chance for snow showers tonight and Sunday.
Arctic high pressure will then build east into the Ohio Valley later this afternoon. Southerly flow will increase on Sunday as the high departs and a cold front drops southeast into the western Great Lakes and central Plains. Otherwise, arctic high pressure will build into the region this afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper teens north to the mid 20s south. Lows will range mainly from the single digits to the lower teens. On Sunday, sunny skies are expected as the Arctic high continues east while a cold front moves into the western Great Lakes and central Plains. Highs will range from near 30 north to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River.
Warmer air will remain in place today with gusty west winds. A wave in NW flow aloft this afternoon and evening will bring a cold front south with enough moisture and instability for a few snow showers possibly rain showers if temperatures are warm enough.
429 AM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Primary forecast concern will be ongoing strong winds across the wind prone areas, which are showing signs of spreading into the high valleys and high plains early this morning. Kept the High Wind Warning going until 500 PM local time due to the expected slow decline in pressure gradients along with the expected boundary layer mixing this afternoon. By tonight, Canadian upper level trough and surface cold front will move south across the area resulting in colder temperatures and a chance for snow showers tonight and Sunday.
341 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 An 850 mb level trough/warm front is being driven across the Northern Plains. Overnight lows are not likely to exceed the low and mid 20s based on the NBM's 95 percent probability distribution. A progressive and positively tilted upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains through Sunday night.
512 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Surface ridging extends over the forecast area early this morning. Other factor today will be increasing southerly winds as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the departing ridge. Finally, despite comparatively warmer high temperatures today in the teens to mid 20s, the brisk winds will make it feel more like single digits above/below zero. One of these, along with a cold front, looks to cross our area late tonight, possibly bringing some light snow to part of the area before daybreak. Expect warmer nighttime lows in the teens above zero. Did expand PoPs to the entire area during the day with forecast soundings showing some moisture to work with in the low levels.
Current surface analysis places low stretching from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into southern Saskatchewan, with a warm front pushing through the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places ridge off the Pacific Northwest/Canadian coast, with a notable short wave pushing through the northern plains. Ahead of the warm front, temperatures remain in the single digits to the teens, while behind the front temperatures have jumped into the 30s, even a few lower 40s. For today, warm front continues to push west, resulting in mild temperatures over most locations, with the exception of the area around the Turtle Mountains. Have left a mention for the possibility for some freezing drizzle, especially towards the end of the precipitation, as forecast soundings continue to suggest that there may be a little lack of ice to work with.
High pressure will build across the region for warmer and drier conditions this weekend.
A much warmer airmass will spread east across the region while southerly surface winds increase today. Strong mixing should take place by the afternoon ahead and along a weak cold front that is slated to slide into the region this afternoon.
EPAC upper ridging builds into NorCal over the weekend with some locally breezy north to east wind, mainly in the Northern Sacramento Valley and northern and eastern foothills.
630 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning. Pattern across North America continues to present large scale ridging going up the west coast and broad troughing across it's eastern third. Generally speaking 2 to 4 inches looks possible through the event, with the higher amounts being expected across the higher terrain.
629 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Arctic high pressure will keep the weekend mainly dry with a warming trend.
Northwest flow aloft brings a series of short wave troughs rotating through the main upper trough east of the Rockies and across the central High Plains region tonight and Sunday.
404 AM PST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build over the region this weekend with dry weather and areas of low clouds and fog.
High temperatures will top out in the low to upper 40s this afternoon. Our normal highs run from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 20s at most locations. /22/ Sunday through Saturday On Sunday, sfc ridging will persist, allowing the region to stay cool and dry, which will permit a pleasant end to the weekend.
623 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Light lake effect snow showers will come to an end by early this afternoon with high pressure building in. Light lake effect snow showers/flurries will continue through the morning, but will start to wind down by early this afternoon with high pressure/ridging building in from the SW. High pressure settles overhead tonight and skies will clear and winds become calm. High pressure shifts off to our east and warm SW return flow develops. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 20s across most of the area, with a few spots possibly getting into the low 30s under partly cloudy skies.
High pressure aloft will lead to a return of quiet and dry winter weather through the weekend and beyond, with an overall warming trend. The high clouds should drift away from NW CA throughout the morning and by late morning the lower clouds should also dissipate. An increasing offshore component will continue through the weekend, with some locally breezy conditions over ridgetops. That offshore flow and a building high pressure ridge overhead will the region to warm up, especially during the afternoon hours, even while morning lows through the valleys stay on the cool side. A highly anomalous, blocking ridge of high pressure will build well to the north over the Pacific Northwest.
113 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 The short term period begins with an upper level trough that has swung winds across the northern portion of the area to the NW made them quite breezy as a few sites have gusted to 30 knots. Those outside the remaining snowpack have warmed into the 50s (Red Willow and Norton counties may make a run at the lower 60s). Sunday, a back door cold front associated with a low over the northern Great Lakes moves through the area early Sunday. This will result in cooler temperatures again returning to the area as high temperatures are expected to be about 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
Northwest flow aloft continues with a large upper level high off the Pacific coast. Will have high pressure at the surface in eastern Idaho through tomorrow night. May be slightly warmer tonight than last night.
A thermal trough will redevelop today, producing another round of gusty north winds and steep seas.
1150 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level trough will swing over area early Saturday, then high pressure will build into the state the rest of the weekend. Decent little trough passing overhead this morning, but it lacks moisture. Without much if any snow cover over the Lower Susq and the downslope flow, they will have the best chc at getting near freezing. Sunday is dry and a warmer day, too. Much of the area will get close to, or over freezing.
326 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level trough was moving off the Mid Atlantic and Southern new England Coast late this afternoon. High pressure will build into the state for tonight and Sunday with mainly clear skies and light wind. Surface-850 MB ridge over Eastern Ohio will build east across PA tonight, bringing diminishing wind and clear, very cold conditions. The larger metro areas in the Lower Susq Valley should see lows right around 10F. 8H temps rebound back to around -5C Sunday afternoon and surface temps across much of the area will get close to, or a few deg F over freezing. A 5-8KT southerly breeze on the back side of the ridge Sunday afternoon will put a slight nip in the air that will be 3-5 deg F below normal high temps in most places.
Temperatures will still be on the cool side with highs expected in the low 50s. Light northerly winds will prevail at all sites becoming variable overnight as high pressure becomes centered over the region. Borderline hard freezing conditions may briefly occur over this area over the next few hours. Closer to the coast, winds remain elevated and temperatures are just reaching freezing. Winds will continue to lessen closer to the coast through the morning as high pressure currently over central Texas becomes centered over the region. High pressure and a very dry atmosphere remain in place through Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a period of westerly flow aloft will become re-established across the Lower Mississippi Valley ahead of a positively tilted longwave trough dropping through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Temperatures will quickly fall this evening as the boundary layer decouples with low temperatures bottoming out in the low 20s to upper teens by daybreak Sunday morning. This will yield a rather large diurnal temperature curve as cold morning temperatures rebound into the low to upper 50s during the day.
328 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 It will become a bit breezy late tonight into Sunday as warmer air tries to move in briefly.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Take Home Points: *Windy conditions ease this evening *Alternating warm front/cold front passages throughout forecast, but warmer than recent cold snaps. However, guidance continues to depict largely warmer conditions than the recent cold.
As the low shifts east of Lake Superior tighter pressure gradient relaxes later in the night with more of a trough axis evolving across the area. Should see some lower level thermal ridging into the early afternoon hours before a trailing cold front starts to move through in the later afternoon and evening hours. Cold advection and low level thermal troughing sets up later Sunday night.
Farther north into the Dakotas, a weak cold front was making progress southward and should make its way into northern portions of the forecast area overnight into Sunday morning. With the front passing through, do expect a slightly cooler day Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Expect height rises heading into the early part of the week as upper level ridging tries to build in for at least a couple days.
1258 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Arctic high pressure will keep the weekend mainly dry with a warming trend.
216 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Clear skies and light and variable winds are ongoing this afternoon as Arctic high pressure slides eastward across the region.
Temperatures will again drop below freezing for most by Sunday morning, generally ranging from the mid 20s in north Georgia to low 30s in far southern portions of the area.
Low-level flow will also increase ahead of a trough axis and under the right-entrance of a 130kt upper jet streak. The aforementioned low- level trough will finally near the CWA from the west through the day Sunday.
1030 AM PST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build over the region this weekend with dry weather and areas of low clouds and fog.
Skies overnight will be clear, but winds are forecast to be slightly stronger than what we saw this morning, so low temperatures Sunday morning should be a few degrees warmer. An upper level trough is forecast to track across the Great Plains on Sunday, sending a cold front into the Big Country by early afternoon, and through most of the rest of the area by late afternoon/early evening. The cold front will serve to reinforce the cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 across the Big Country, to the low to mid 50s elsewhere. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Upper trough over the east coast will continue through much of the week, with northwest flow across much of the Southern Plains.
Out west, a 500 mb trough will move out of the Four Corners/Baja Peninsula into Northern Mexico on Sunday. At the same time, increased moisture across the region as well as a developing coastal trough will increase chances of rain later in the period, with the greatest chance for rainfall falling Sunday evening and overnight. A few areas in the northern Ranchlands could touch the freezing mark, but only briefly. Sunday, temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the low to mid 60s across Deep South Texas.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 50 30 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 48 28 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 23 48 27 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 46 24 46 25 / 0 0 0 10 0.
Increased temperatures a bit for this evening and overnight to account for the warmer start combined with increased cloudiness. Low level temperatures plummet late tonight through Sunday morning with CAA and the departing upper trough sliding through.
High pressure will be over the region tonight and tomorrow. Elsewhere, lows will be mainly in the lower 20s. With WAA starting tomorrow, temps will be warmer with highs mainly in the upper 40s and near 50.
The second wave may produce somewhat better coverage of snow showers, including areas adjacent to the central MT mountains as well as the Bridger and Gallatin ranges in SW MT. Still only expect minor accumulations, except across the higher elevations in the Little Belts, where a winter weather advisory continues today.
With ample amounts of sunshine, temperatures are expected to finally climb above freezing. However, considering the current snow pack that remains, decided to trend towards the lower end guidance, with afternoon highs ranging in the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area. Overnight lows will range in the upper teens to low 20s, which is warmer than the previous few nights have observed. A warming trend will continue on Sunday, with afternoon highs reaching the low 40s throughout the area.
348 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
Winds will trend northwest and increase to 10-15 mph after midnight, as a weak dry cold front makes progress across SW KS. An associated positively tilted trough will swing across the plains through the day, accompanied by modest cold air advection.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 26 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 23 48 28 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 23 48 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 18 46 24 46 / 10 0 0 0 10.
1254 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning. Pattern across North America continues to present large scale ridging going up the west coast and broad troughing across it's eastern third. Generally speaking 2 to 4 inches looks possible through the event, with the higher amounts being expected across the higher terrain.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper levels have zonal flow over TX and NM today with a trough coming down over the Northern Rockies. This trough will move down across CO tonight and through NM Sunday as a ridge spins over the West Coast. A weak front will blow into the area early Sunday but temperatures are expected to end up a few degrees warmer than today so should be more of just a wind shift to the north.
With high pressure settling in, dry airmass indicates little in the way of clouds expected.
A cold front will enter the northwestern zones a bit before dawn Sunday and then move quickly southward with north winds becoming breezy by late morning. However, the air mass behind the front is really no cooler than the pre-frontal air mass, and the result will be high temperatures Sunday very near those of this afternoon, or 5-10 degrees cooler than average for the date. A persistent northwesterly flow regime aloft will encompass the region for most of the upcoming week, as the CWA remains between stout ridging over the eastern Pacific Ocean and broadly cyclonic flow across the eastern two-thirds of the U.
Still expecting a chilly night with lows in the teens and 20s, so patchy ice will remain a concern with moisture refreezing during the late evening and overnight hours.
A back door cold front will enter eastern NM overnight with a northeast wind shift thru Sunday. The rise should be enough to end the prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures for all except high terrain locales. This will mean warmer temperatures in the east, along with a moderate, gusty wind in the afternoon. Highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer in the west, and 10 to 20 degrees warmer in the east.
1042 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Morning lows did not get as cold as initially expected, though we still saw temps in the low teens across much of the CWA, and a touch colder north of the Ohio River. Hourly forecast temps for 16z are already behind current obs by a few degrees, so had to adjust max temps for today slightly to account for the slightly warmer trend. A few areas in southern Kentucky could see the low 30s. Tonight, high pressure with a strong inversion will keep winds light and skies clear, making way for another cool night with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Temperatures will run on the cool side of normal, with an especially cold start on Sunday thanks to sfc ridging lingering behind the departing 1036mb high.
/issued 937 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ Sunny skies dominating our entire region this morning but as late as 9 am, all sites still at or below freezing.
1139 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Surface ridging extends over the forecast area early this morning. Other factor today will be increasing southerly winds as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the departing ridge. Finally, despite comparatively warmer high temperatures today in the teens to mid 20s, the brisk winds will make it feel more like single digits above/below zero. One of these, along with a cold front, looks to cross our area late tonight, possibly bringing some light snow to part of the area before daybreak. Expect warmer nighttime lows in the teens above zero. Did expand PoPs to the entire area during the day with forecast soundings showing some moisture to work with in the low levels.
As a cold front moves into the region, light snow chances/trends are the focus of this forecast. Decent forcing will accompany the trough and upstream obs support keeping a chance of light snow in the forecast through the evening across the far north. The cold front then moves into northeast WI after midnight. The cold front will slow as it moves across northeast Wisconsin.
A cold front will move through tonight after highs today soared into the 30s to 50s. The rest of Sunday looks dry, breezy and cooler, though still right around climo norms in the east and well above across central SD.
An upper closed low off the coast of Baja Cali will make it's way east later tonight with the progression of an upper trough digging across the Rockies today. Breezy winds will diminish tomorrow afternoon as the upper level positively tilted trough continues to swing east, absorbing the closed low coming across northwest Mexico.
306 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure brings drier air into the area this weekend and temperatures warm for Sunday.
1201 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Have let the high wind warnings expire for Musselshell, Golden Valley and northern Stillwater. Vertz Medium range models were still advertising a locked in pattern of strong ridging along the Pacific coast and troffing over the eastern US.
Morning lows did not get as cold as initially expected, though we still saw temps in the low teens across much of the CWA, and a touch colder north of the Ohio River. Hourly forecast temps for 16z are already behind current obs by a few degrees, so had to adjust max temps for today slightly to account for the slightly warmer trend. A few areas in southern Kentucky could see the low 30s. Tonight, high pressure with a strong inversion will keep winds light and skies clear, making way for another cool night with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Temperatures will run on the cool side of normal, with an especially cold start on Sunday thanks to sfc ridging lingering behind the departing 1036mb high.
1000 AM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Primary forecast concern will be ongoing strong winds across the wind prone areas, which are showing signs of spreading into the high valleys and high plains early this morning. Kept the High Wind Warning going until 500 PM local time due to the expected slow decline in pressure gradients along with the expected boundary layer mixing this afternoon. By tonight, Canadian upper level trough and surface cold front will move south across the area resulting in colder temperatures and a chance for snow showers tonight and Sunday.
937 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Sunny skies dominating our entire region this morning but as late as 9 am, all sites still at or below freezing.
1235 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Arctic high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Southerly flow will increase on Sunday as the high departs and a cold front drops southeast into the western Great Lakes and central Plains. Otherwise, arctic high pressure will build into the region this afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper teens north to the mid 20s south. Lows will range mainly from the single digits to the lower teens. On Sunday, sunny skies are expected as the Arctic high continues east while a cold front moves into the western Great Lakes and central Plains. Highs will range from near 30 north to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River.
Expect highs back in the low to mid 50s north and east of I- 10 and into the mid to upper 50s and even some lower 60s south of it.
850 temps per area 12z raobs are some 10-15 degrees warmer than those of 24 hours ago, which has helped in a pretty quick warmup despite lingering snow cover. A little warmer overnight lows are expected as snow cover impacts continue to diminish along with slight southerly winds in place. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Quiet and warmer weather will prevail this upcoming week.
A cold front and wrap around clouds will swing through early this evening. Another cold front and surge of colder air will pass through very late tonight. The low levels will be moist but the depth of the moist DGZ will only extend up to about 5kft.
Dry and mostly clear conditions the rest of today as high pressure builds in from the coast. West to northwest will come up some this afternoon in the wake of an exiting trough.
/Issued 1236 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ /Through Sunday/ Surface analysis shows the area of high pressure responsible for the frigid temperatures is beginning to move to the east of Texas. This has allowed winds to return out of the south, increasing slightly as a weak area of low pressure develops across northern New Mexico. Temperatures tonight will dip below freezing once again, which will mean the potential for a few icy spots on roads where some snow/ice remains after today. There is a low-end potential for some patchy freezing fog to develop tonight once again.