Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday. Weak low pressure may develop offshore mid week as strong high pressure builds from the north.
Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
For tomorrow, cold high pressure will prevail over the Great Plains.
in response to lee side troughing across western Kansas and the Panhandle. During the day on Tuesday yet another cold front will move across the area resulting in temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the Big Country with 50s across the southern half of the area.
A cold period is indicated with a trough in the upper atmosphere anchored across Eastern North America.
1003 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes will continue to deepen as high pressure builds from the west. The high will dominate from mid to late week. Dry but cold weather will prevail with high pressure building from the west. The 12z EC is a bit more amplified with the upper trough leading to intensifying low pres tracking just S and E of the 40N 70W benchmark Sat eve which is slightly earlier and farther S as compared to its 25/00Z run. High pressure builds south of the area through Tuesday.
West to northwesterly flow will continue at 500mb through the period with a large trough fully entrenched across much of the central and eastern U.
Surface analysis has cold front stalled well into the central Gulf of Mexico this evening. High pressure stretches from the central Plains to the Mid-South. With the deeper moisture just off the coast to the SW, its return tonight should be rather quick with the passage of the as- sociated warm front. This wet pattern is expected remain in place for much of the week as the warm front lingers near the coast and the isentropic upglide prevails over the area. The persistent BKN/OVC clouds along with a cold front on Weds will help keep temps most- ly below normal through this time frame. The building upper ridge out west should clear things out a bit by Fri. but some low POPS will be returning to the FA for the weekend ahead of the a strong cold front.
Cold day continues with high pressure across the region.
Should see no impacts as long as temps stay in the mid to upper 30s as forecast but with very dry low levels at onset could be some quick cooling to near freezing.
220 PM PST Mon Dec 25 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the west coast will provide quiet and dry weather into the start of 2018. A high pressure ridge near the west coast and extending into CA-NV will remain in place through the remainder of this year, and possibly into the first few days of 2018 as well.
In fact, a large area of high pressure will continue to our north for the next several days, likely resulting in moderate easterly surges each night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 47 28 43 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 39 25 40 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 24 41 25 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 33 19 36 / 0 0 0 0.
650 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 23z sfc analysis shows a compact area of high pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley. Neutral advection, light winds, and some mid to high clouds around overnight will keep temperatures from falling too far or developing much of a ridge to valley split, but did allow for a small one over the northern portion of the CWA where clouds are thinner. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow rules across most of the CONUS, as a deeper upper level low spins across south central Canada. In general, most locations will see minimum readings in the low to mid 20s.
Current surface analysis reveals a 1036mb high over western TN/MS influencing much of the weather over the lower Ohio Valley.
Weak ridging is present over the Great Basin region will allow for weak disturbances to pass over northern Nevada.
Also can't completely rule out some snow flurries or very light patchy freezing drizzle, but impacts/vsby reductions are not expected at this time. As a result expect a fairly isothermal day on Tuesday, with the where the high and low temperature may only be within 10 degrees of each other. And given that the high for the central and northeast Panhandles is forecast to be in the mid 20 up to about freezing, it will feel pretty cold out there all day Tuesday. At best this looks like freezing drizzle, not freezing rain. The majority of the forecast will still have the Panhandles under northwest flow, as a very large upper level trough engulfs the northern, central, and eastern CONUS.
536 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 This Evening-Tue Night: This afternoon a STRONG upper-deck cyclone covered most of Ontario that is producing a few jet maxima that are, meteorologically speaking, breaking the sound barrier. The strongest upper-deck jet that is screaming ~140kts around the base of the cyclone stretched in a NW-SE manner across the Lower Great Lakes while a second max ~130kts stretched from Southeast MO to the Western Ohio Valley. The light snow may spread into Central KS late tonight & Tue morning as the lower decks slowly moisten. A cold front will push southward across the region for tonight into Tuesday with low clouds filling in behind the front in the MVFR range.
719 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes will continue to deepen as high pressure builds from the west. The high will dominate from mid to late week. Still have some light returns on radar from lake effect bands so have included some isolated flurries/sct -shsn across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT through 10pm. Dry but cold weather will prevail with high pressure building from the west. The 12z EC is a bit more amplified with the upper trough leading to intensifying low pres tracking just S and E of the 40N 70W benchmark Sat eve which is slightly earlier and farther S as compared to its 25/00Z run. VFR as high pressure slowly builds from the west.
A long-wave upper trough that has settled over much of the CONUS was responsible for very cold air across the eastern half of the U. Confidence is increasing that warm, moist air will override the cooler airmass just above the surface beginning Tuesday evening across the eastern Permian Basin.
658 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes will continue to deepen as high pressure builds from the west. The high will dominate from mid to late week. Still have some light returns on radar from lake effect bands so have included some isolated flurries across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT through mid evening. Dry but cold weather will prevail with high pressure building from the west. The 12z EC is a bit more amplified with the upper trough leading to intensifying low pres tracking just S and E of the 40N 70W benchmark Sat eve which is slightly earlier and farther S as compared to its 25/00Z run. VFR as high pressure slowly builds from the west.
914 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Strong ridge continues to build in from the north and as the center shifts northeast of the CWA, we will see the fetch mainly out of the east by morning. Fairly dense cirrus deck skirting across from the west which may limit min temps to a few degrees warmer than if we were under clear skies, though still expecting temps reaching upper 20s to low 30s for most locations. Should see no impacts as long as temps stay in the mid to upper 30s as forecast but with very dry low levels at onset could be some quick cooling to near freezing.
624 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will dominate the Mid-Atlantic region through much of the week.
520 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 Dry and cold tonight into Tuesday as a cold ridge of high pressure slowly builds southeast.
A weak inverted coastal trough on Tuesday will increase the northeasterly winds with SCEC winds of 15 to 20 knots expected primarily across the southeast Georgia waters.
/issued 338 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017/ Cold temperatures and uncertainty with regard to a couple of potential rounds of Wintry weather are the highlights of this forecast update. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 30s across the Midsouth. A very broad trough is currently in place across the entire United States, centered over the Mississippi River. A reinforcing Arctic cold front will move across the Midsouth tomorrow ushering in a bitterly cold Arctic Airmass.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. A weak cold front will stall in the vicinity of the Florida Keys overnight.
1019 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday. Weak low pressure may develop offshore mid week as strong high pressure builds from the north.
With light low- level flow and only modest low-level drying, this low cloudiness may linger through the night. 12Z GFS model guidance has backed off on QPF amounts on both the late Tuesday and late week systems, with the ECMWF still favoring a stronger ridge over the area.
Cold front currently just near a KRSL-KGCK-KEHA-KCAO line will move southeast into and through the area this evening and overnight. The lowest ceilings are expected to be in the southwest, especially at KSPS with some potential of IFR ceilings Tuesday morning.
414 PM MST Mon Dec 25 2017 A broad upper trough remain across much of the CONUS today with cold northwest flow across the northern Plains. Arctic high pressure sits across eastern MT through the Dakotas, with the frontal boundary just west and south of the CWA.
Regarding the temperatures, winds will be diminishing over the northern CWA overnight, as an axis of high pressure builds southeast into the area. Likely to see some sub-zero readings in the colder spots, but the lower winds should help keep wind chills above advisory levels (though still below zero as far south as I-70).
814 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Drier airmass over the area in the wake of the weak cold front that moved through the area overnight and this morning resulted in quite a nice day. High temperatures ranged from the upper 60s for northern areas and low to mid 70s for the southern areas, which is roughly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. As high pressure continues to build in over the Carolinas winds will gradually veer more northeasterly along the coast and perhaps push some marine stratocu onshore along the Treasure Coast. It will be cooler than previous nights with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to around 50 over the interior and low to mid 50s along the coast.
Strong Hudson Bay low keeping broad trof over North America and pulling very cold arctic air southward into the northern plains for early in the week. By midweek the Hudson Bay low begins to weaken and the upper trof flattens somewhat. Canadian high pressure currently over northeast Montana will spread southeast very slowing over the next day.
The first cold frontal surge occurs by sunrise Tuesday and this will knock high temperatures back a few degrees once again, depending on how quickly low clouds become established in wake of front. Flow just above cold air backs Tuesday night with models indicating weak corresponding isentropic ascent which may be enough to produce some very light drizzle or freezing drizzle, particularly extreme southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
1107 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017 corrected for aviation section Closed low from the past several days has progressed slower than expected through the afternoon and evening hours. The low will continue to fill and drift slowly north, eventually being absorbed into the high latitude flow. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms were ongoing overnight and have ticked up recently, likely due to some remnant forcing moving around the upper low. This is likely due to better lapse rates aloft with the dry slot of the upper low. A secondary trough and jet streak will move in early Saturday. Strong warm air advection, with a pronounced low level jet will draw moisture and warmer air north into southern Colorado. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday morning, peaking during the afternoon as the trough swings through.
316 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Latest upper analysis showed a high amplitude ridge over plains states and provinces with an upper low over Wyoming. A the surface, high pressure was centered over Lake Superior with a N-S oriented low pressure trough over the western CONUS. A persistent area of cloud cover over parts nern WY and far wrn SD has kept temps slightly cooler than forecast this afternoon. Early Saturday, the upper low will wash out in response to the deepening upper trough over the western CONUS. Low pressure developing over southern BC will draw warm air northward as a warm front crossing the forecast area. Southwesterly flow aloft will promote warm air advection/thermal ridge over the CWA with readings well into the 70s.
345 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Tonight and Tomorrow: As the upper trough currently over the Great Lakes pushes off to the east tonight and tomorrow, an upper ridge will move into the middle of the U. As this transition occurs, the upper high builds over our region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s and Saturday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. /10/ Saturday night through Friday: Warmer than normal through the week.
307 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Cool and dry air will continue filtering into the area tonight behind the weak cold front which moved through the region today. Light winds and mostly clear skies will be favorable for radiational cooling, therefore overnight lows should be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. On Saturday, the combination of upper ridging and dry easterly flow around the southern side of a high pressure center over the Great Lakes will produce another cool and dry day across the region.
Other than isolated showers affecting the southern waters and extreme southern portions of the CWA, most areas will remain dry on Saturday into Saturday night as upper level ridging and dry low level northeast flow take over.
132 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A cold front will move across the Ohio Valley today. High pressure will build in behind the front, bringing dry and cooler conditions for Saturday. Clouds are increasing ahead of a weak cold front dropping from the northwest. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 70s across the CWA this afternoon. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight and Saturday. Drier air along with subsidence from the high will promote mainly clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies on Saturday. The air mass will be cooler, with high temperatures of 65 to 70 deg F expected across the CWA for Saturday.
The cold front to the north will push south tonight, but little in the way of impact is expected with the front except we should see a reinforcing shot of cooler air filter in behind the front.
A cold front has pushed south of the CWA this morning with dry air moving in from the north. An upper level low pressure system, currently over Utah, will move into eastern MT late tonight with WAA showers possible in this CWA.
253 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017 An upper level low pressure center over southwest Wyoming will move northeast and weaken through the night bringing some mountain showers and isolated evening thunderstorms, most numerous along the Continental Divide. Clearing will be temporary later tonight and Saturday morning before a Pacific low pressure trough over the Pacific Northwest moves east bringing more clouds and showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms to the mountains Saturday afternoon and evening.
The strongest part of the upper level wave of low pressure crosses between 19Z and 23Z. Drier air works into the region tomorrow as surface anticyclone arrives from the western Great Lakes. With increased downward vertical motion, daytime cumulus clouds may mix out during the afternoon owing to a clear afternoon and evening especially away from the higher terrain.
306 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure center is located over the Upper Midwest/south central Canadian border this afternoon. Weak boundary moving through the region this morning with a wind shift and reinforcing cooler/subsident air. Tonight is cooler, with the lows dropping into the 40s under mostly clear skies and light winds. Cooler temps will impact the diurnal swing tomorrow, keeping high temperatures in the low 70s through the afternoon. GFS guidance may need to be pulled in as they are the lowest presented. Through the remains of the weekend, the upper ridge continues to build over a large portion of the country. Central Illinois is on the edge between a more southwesterly stream aloft (just to the NW), and a large airmass/upper ridge over the Southeast/into the Ohio River Valley.
The upper-level ridge of high pressure which has been responsible for the recent beautiful weather conditions is now slowly moving east as a weak low pressure center approaches from the the south and a larger low pressure trough over the Pacific NW approaches from the west. Overall, the 500 mb height field will continue to drop as that small low center moves directly over NE Montana and subsequently becomes absorbed into the northern stream low pressure trough approaching from the west.
The low level air mass appears to be too dry for fog formation on any grand scale tonight.
Water Vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis show the area on the Ern periphery of an upper dome of high pressure centered over SE TX. An upper trof is digging across the Great Lakes region at the moment, and it's this feature that will traverse our area later today. This will bring a reinforcing/dry cold front across the CWFA by this evening, with cooler/drier air filtering into the area by morning. This will set the stage for morning lows in the middle 50s, with a few notoriously cooler spots in Srn Middle TN/NE AL falling between 50-55F.
143 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure will bring warm inland weather today and patchy dense fog along the coast.
A low pressure system will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms again today, primarily over the eastern portion of Arizona. A low pressure system was centered over southwest Wyoming, heading northward. For today, the position of the low will place weak upward motion and cool mid- level temperatures over northern Arizona.
Medium Cumulus field fairly widespread with mid level cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough. Combo of low level thermal trough and increasingly favorable trajectory could lead to period of lake induced cloud cover hanging on for a time. Lingering tighter pressure gradient between departed low pressure and high pressure building in from the Plains will result in the winds staying up for a time overnight. The high shifts off to the east pretty quick on Saturday so influence of low level thermal trough wanes as return flow starts to take shape. Mid level ridging translates across WI as well.
1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Strong upper-level wave pushing through the western Great Lakes early this morning, and high pressure building into the eastern Plains behind the system will continue to suppress a backdoor frontal boundary southward past the Missouri River valley before daybreak. The wave will lift northeast across Wyoming, lowering pressures in the high plains through tonight and increasing southeasterly winds especially west of the James River.
Trailing cold front is now dropping through northern Illinois, and will push through our area later today to reinforce the Canadian high. Today's temps will run slightly below normal, but we'll be a few degrees cooler yet on Saturday as the stronger high builds in.
310 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A weakly defined cold front is dropping into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with little more than a few clouds to go with it. Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft build in for the weekend, continuing the dry trend.
137 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure will bring warm inland weather today and patchy dense fog along the coast.
313 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 An upper trough located across the central Rockies this afternoon will be kicked northeast into the northern plains on Saturday by a more intense upper trough digging southeast into the western and southwestern US. At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extended from northern MN, southwest across eastern and central KS. As the weak upper trough across the central Rockies lift northeastward across the northern and central plains Tonight and Saturday, there may be enough ascent combined with isentropic lift across western KS for showers and few elevated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and through the night. Any lingering showers Saturday morning across the northwest counties of the CWA should move northeast into NE as the lead H5 trough fills and lifts northeast into the upper Midwest.
310 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure builds in across the Upper Great Lakes region today into tonight leading to clearing skies. Lows tonight in the low to mid 30s, coldest over inland areas of northwest Wisconsin. Given these cool temps, a frost advisory has been issued for much of the region since much of the region has not yet hit the freezing mark this fall. Saturday will start off sunny with temperatures a bit warmer due to southerly flow in the wake of the high pressure. Increasing clouds late in the day from west to east as a warm front approaches.
The cold front to the north will push south tonight, but little in the way of impact is expected with the front except we should see a reinforcing shot of cooler air filter in behind the front. An upper level ridge is expected to be in place across the Eastern Conus to begin the period.
Low pressure center has reached far SE Ontario late this afternoon. with the exception of our far southern CWA where temps have popped into the lower 60s. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 30s across inland areas.
Precipitation chances are expected to increase from SW-NE today, as difluence aloft increases in advance of an upper low lifting across western WY. Models consistently trend towards deepening the upper trough to our west across the Great Basin over the weekend keeping us in a fairly active southwesterly upper flow while nudging colder airmass farther to the southeast into our area.
153 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Aviation A cold front will progress south through the area today bringing with it a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Best chances for precipitation will come this morning along and ahead of the cold front. The cold front stretches from Northern Lower Michigan to Southern Wisconsin at 07z. Otherwise, high pressure will be sprawled across the area this weekend bringing dry weather.
358 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Mid/upper level trough and associated closed low centered over the northeast Gulf waters combined with the western edge of the Atlantic high are keeping a prevailing southerly flow aloft across South FL. NHC in the latest update has a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone for the next few days. The models show the low migrating north through Saturday with deep tropical moisture remaining across the area.
1107 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Closed low from the past several days has progressed slower than expected through the afternoon and evening hours. The low will continue to fill and drift slowly north, eventually being absorbed into the high latitude flow. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms were ongoing overnight and have ticked up recently, likely due to some remnant forcing moving around the upper low. This is likely due to better lapse rates aloft with the dry slot of the upper low. A secondary trough and jet streak will move in early Saturday. Strong warm air advection, with a pronounced low level jet will draw moisture and warmer air north into southern Colorado. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday morning, peaking during the afternoon as the trough swings through.
348 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure continues to round the western lakes region so our winds have moved to east/southeast. We begin to see mid level warm advection/isentropic ascent tonight as the high continues east.