Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SFC RIDGING CENTERED EAST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION. WHILST WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING PROMOTES THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO VEER TO THE SW BY THIS AFTN /AOA 10 MPH/. WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS THOUGH STILL CHILLY /20S/. ALTHOUGH A PERSISTENT LOW-AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE COULD DISRUPT THINGS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH FAIRLY MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EVEN WARMER DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY SFC WINDS. WHICH WAS MUCH WARMER AND SEEMED MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE NO LONGER HAVE ANY SNOW COVER. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER EASTERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
353 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 74 43 54 / 10 70 60 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 73 40 50 / 10 70 80 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 75 39 51 / 10 80 60 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 73 40 47 / 20 60 90 30.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY IN ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA MOVES EAST.
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE STATE AND IS LOCATED WELL INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS/ECMWF FOR LOWS. FEW REAL CONCERNS OF HIGH IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS YESTERDAYS SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
AREA REMAINS IN NW FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL FURTHER DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO AND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN SHOWER AND A THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
858 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED.
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 948 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DAY OVER DAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER LAST NIGHTS LOW. WITH AN INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. EXPECT AROUND A THREE DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY OVER THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MAKING ITS WAY EAST. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES EAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE.
919 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 /06Z TAFS/ Strong winds behind a cold front will be the main aviation issue through sunrise. A strong cold front will bring gusty north winds to West Central Texas sites tonight, with the front still projected to reach Abilene (KABI) before midnight and cross even the southern terminals in just a few hours. /ISSUED 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/ (Tonight) A strong cold front and upper-level disturbance will create conditions for gusty winds from the north and possible severe thunderstorms tonight. As another cold front pushes south across West Central Texas tonight, surface winds will be from the north, in the 30 to 35 mph range, with possible gusts near 45 mph.
THE STORMS REMAINED MOSTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WHERE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR WERE JUXTAPOSED FOR SEVERE HAIL. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN LESS THAN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
541 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY LATE THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. TODAY'S COLD ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY DAYS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT. THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SILENT 10% ALONG THE TREASURE COAST FOR ANYTHING THAT MAY BRUSH LAND AS IT MOVES ALONG THE GULF STREAM WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE LATE TONIGHT. THESE VEERING WINDS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INVERTED TROUGH OVER LOCAL ATLANTIC SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN THIS EVENING ALLOWING PREVAILING FLOW TO VEER A LITTLE MORE EAST- NORTHEAST. THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS MAY STILL BE TO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN THE TROUGH AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold front moves southward across the forecast area. Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on Thursday evening.
1249 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE. COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY.
AS OF WRITING A COLD FRONT WAS RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. ALSO INCREASED TIMING OF FROPA BY A FEW HOURS WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING THOUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVING MID MORNING AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND HAZARDOUS SEAS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE.
653 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BUT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPR TROF ALTHO THE THIN SPOTS ACROSS MN/IA HOLD OUT HOPE FOR SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE WI LATER TNGT. A COLD UPPER TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT IDEAL (N-NNE) AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE EXPOSING THE HIGHER CEILING ALOFT /AT OR ABOVE 20K FEET/. THE CONCERN THEN HINGES ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. 06Z BEFORE THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THESE AREAS. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AND NORTH AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING.
1130 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
Skies remain mostly clear this evening in the interior as a ridge of high pressure takes control over the area. Temperatures are running 5 to 15 degrees warmer this evening than this time last night. The ridge of high pressure looks to become the strongest over the region on Thursday.
631 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
As for temps, have trended twd the cooler guidance with fropa tonight. With clouds clearing, have trended twd the warmer guidance with deep mixing expected. Mdls are in good agreement with a strong s/w digging into the region Thurs night into Fri bringing a cooler airmass into the region.
701 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 Elevated convection developed north of a warm front over parts of southeast Kansas into southwest MO. Capping evident in the warm sector based on METSAT data, but synoptic scale lift will increase with an approaching positively tilted trough from the west along with the right entrance region with a jet max over the Midwest.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CP ORIGIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EAST OF THE DELMARVA. WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE REEF AND SOUTHWARD ARE GIVING WAY TO THE HIGH'S SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING IS ALLOWING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER UTAH.
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW CARVING SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW ZONES TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL NOW BUT THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPS DURING PRECIPITATION.
WITH SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ COLD FRONT NOW NEAR A KFYV TO KSNL LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ALABAMA BY 18Z AND REACH THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR LBB UNTIL 4AM THURSDAY FOR 30 KNOT COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF LBB AHEAD OF 15-25 KT NLY WINDS.
THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THE 00Z NAM GUIDANCE FOR GRAND JUNCTION IS A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE NE DRAINAGE WINDS HERE AT THE AIRPORT ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN NORMAL AT 9PM. AND MOAB ALL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY LATE THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. TODAY'S COLD ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY DAYS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT. THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
948 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ALONG THE EAST COAST, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSED THE WESTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM OK NEWRD INTO THE OH VALLEY. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTN, WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WITH AREA TEMPS RANGING IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. WITH THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXITING THE EAST COAST, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT/HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES AFTER SUNRISE COMPLETE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT N WINDS ON THURSDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES. AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD.
844 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT NOW NEAR A KFYV TO KSNL LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
A strong cold front will bring gusty north winds to West Central Texas sites tonight, with the front still projected to reach Abilene (KABI) before midnight and cross even the southern terminals in just a few hours. A strong cold front and upper-level disturbance will create conditions for gusty winds from the north and possible severe thunderstorms tonight. As another cold front pushes south across West Central Texas tonight, surface winds will be from the north, in the 30 to 35 mph range, with possible gusts near 45 mph.
718 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 The short term forecast looks to be cooler than normal with the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
DRY WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HIGH MOISTURE LOW-MID LVL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT NORTH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW DEVELOPS AND INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPR TROUGH.
1050 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED SO CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND JUST HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FA. COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING.
The exception may be the development of a few scattered showers along an advancing trough axis across the northern CWA earlier in the evening. As expected, the 12z Mar 25 models have shifted the low track a bit further south, now taking it along/just north of the Ohio River. As the low pulls further away, showers will come to an end by midday followed by clearing skies from west to east during the afternoon.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND MODEST GRADIENT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
928 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE. COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY.
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER LK SUPERIOR. RIDGING WAS NOSING DOWN THE PLAINS AND ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY. WILL BANK ON THE WANING OF DIURNAL PROCESSES AFTER DARK AND DRYING LLVL NORTHWEST FEED/INCOMING H85 MB COLD FRONT WILL HELP ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU MORNING. WITH INCOMING LLVL RIDGE LOBE.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD.
ALLOWED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
207 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TODAY BRINGING BREEZY BUT WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015 Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the upper trough Thursday through the weekend.
12Z MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR ON TIMING THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY SO CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE MINOR OVERALL. TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MID TO LATE MORNING FOR WRN COUNTIES.
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
250 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 26/08Z. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED ELSEWHERE AS THE LOW STRATUS MIXES OUT AND WARM ADVECTION RESULTS IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SO DID TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT.
255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION PRESENTLY FROM PROSSER AND BOARDMAN EAST TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON WITH RAIN AHEAD OF IT AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND IT. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE TODAY BUT EXPECT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.