Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Not much changes through the next three to four days as summertime high pressure aloft remains positioned directly over the nations midsection.
327 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Upper low sagging southeastward into South Carolina this afternoon. Upper ridging extending from northern Mexico northeastward to Lake Superior. Dew points have dropped into the lower and mid 60s across much of the area, and temperatures have jumped into the 93-95 degree range at quite a few locations. It'll be an interesting battle the next couple of days to see how much actual cooling occurs as upper low remains over the Carolinas for a few days.
319 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Short Term [Tonight through Tuesday] This afternoon's surface analysis indicates a broad area of high pressure located over the eastern third of the CONUS with the southwestern periphery extending into central Texas.
There is an upper level ridge in place over Texas and the Southern Plains. Beneath this ridge, the flow is from the southeast and dewpoints have increased 10 to 15 degrees over the last 24 hours. Weak upper flow with southeasterlies in the low levels will once again produce isolated convection during the day.
124 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The latest water vapor animation shows troughiness over the western CONUS, a ridge over the south-central CONUS, and a a low/trough over the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight and Tuesday, but will still remain at near normal values. Overnight lows tonight are forecasted to be in the low to mid 70s, with highs on Tuesday in the mid 80s to the mid 90s. The arrival of drier air on Tuesday night will lead to minimum temperatures to run a few degrees cooler than tonight.
We've updated the afternoon forecast to account for highs which will be in the low to mid 90s.
No impactful weather through Tuesday night with high pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Yet, it will remain about 5-9 degrees cooler along Lake Michigan for one more day.
248 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure east of the area continues to keep drier air across the area this afternoon. This high pressure and interface between the drier lake enhanced airmass and the continental moist airmass will continue to drive the weather through the short term.
Blocky upper flow pattern is forecast to remain in place into mid- week, with a deep upper trough over the western states, upper ridging across the western Lakes, and a cut-off upper low spinning across the southern Appalachians. Ratzer 251 PM CDT Ensemble and deterministic forecast model guidance continues to suggest the deep troughing across the western United States will start moving eastward toward the end of the week signaling the start of a more active weather pattern.
Stubborn steep ridging across the central U. will maintain, with some slight breakdown through tomorrow as a short wave trough begins to dig into the PacNW, traversing the larger northwest trough.
1026 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather with temperatures warming steadily through the week. Persistent high pressure leading to continued dry conditions with seasonal temperatures. High pressure remaining in place though becoming more centered east of the area, allowing for warmer and slightly more humid air to move in.
Models show an anticyclonic vorticity dipole flanking the closed low with time on Tuesday. Quiet weather will persist through the end of the week as longwave blocking pattern remains in place across the conus with troughing over the west and ridging over the east.
/issued 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): High pressure generally remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico and lower Texas coast through the short term period as a 500mb trough swings around the Carolinas. Temperatures are topping off near to slightly below normal this afternoon and expect generally a degree warmer or so tomorrow.
Upper ridging/southwest flow aloft across the Central Plains will maintain a hot windy regime across our region through the middle of the workweek. Under the influence of the upper ridge and ahead of an approaching upper trough in the Pacific Northwest, we remain under the influence of a very warm summer airmass which will continue to provide us with hot daytime temperatures in the 90s with little reprieve from the heat at night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70F.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ WV imagery indicates the upper ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is reorienting to SW-NE, courtesy of a series of PacNW troughs digging thru the northern Rockies. However, this looks to be the outlier, as other long range models are coming in w/considerably cooler solutions. On the upside, models weaken the ridge somewhat midweek, and accompanying height falls could open a window for some convection, mainly over the Big Bend/higher terrain, beginning Wed.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s with highs Tuesday a little warmer, in the mid 80s. Mostly clear skies will continue through the night across the CWA as a high pressure ridge axis extends across a portion of the area from northeast to southwest. Afternoon surface data continued to display a ridge of high pressure from the Great Lakes into central IL. Satellite imagery showed the stagnate upper level closed low center over western NC this afternoon. This system is serving to keep the main upper level pattern from moving, with a weak upper ridge over MN to eastern KS/OK.
The highest CAPE values are over the high country on Tuesday. For pops, will have some 10%s this evening for Park County and the Palmer Ridge. 0 C warmer than this afternoon's.
1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure will move into the region from the north with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week. A mid level closed low over South Carolina will continue drifting slowly southeast. Lows will be on the cool side, ranging from the the lower to mid 50s. with high pressure remaining across the Great Lakes.
/issued 344 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper-level low pressure system over eastern North Carolina with an associated front stalled from northern Mississippi to central Arkansas.
655 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Prevailing high pressure brings precipitation free conditions with moderating temperatures throughout the remainder of the work week.
Nearby high pressure will remain the dominant weather influence across Lake Michigan the next several days, resulting in lighter and more variable winds tonight, turning more south to southeasterly on Tuesday. Sct-bkn mostly high clouds from this upstream activity will continue to affect southern Wisconsin overnight as the high clouds stream southeast. No impactful weather through Tuesday night with high pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Yet, it will remain about 5-9 degrees cooler along Lake Michigan for one more day.
The latest water vapor animation shows troughiness over the western CONUS, a ridge over the south-central CONUS, and a a low/trough over the eastern CONUS.
/issued 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A minor weakness in the upper ridge will remain across the area through Tuesday. This will keep our temperatures pretty close to normal again tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s along the I-10 corridor, to the lower 90s elsewhere.
654 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Dry conditions and near normal temperatures can be expected into midweek with high pressure in control. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected as a closed upper low drifts south across the Tennessee Valley.
A few scattered showers affected the plateau this afternoon on the western peripheral of the upper low centered over the Carolinas. Upper low expected to continue spinning over the mid-Atlantic the next 24-48 hours.
Warmer temperatures, lower humidity and breezy north winds will bring elevated fire weather concerns during mid-week. Looking at current water vapor we are in the tough axis of a closed off upper level low spinning off the coast of BC.
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather with temperatures warming steadily through the week. Persistent high pressure leading to continued dry conditions with seasonal temperatures. High pressure remaining in place though becoming more centered east of the area, allowing for warmer and slightly more humid air to move in.
An upstream trough digging out of the PacNW into the Rockies will be inducing a strong southerly low level response beginning during the overnight hours. Another warm day on tap Tuesday with the cold front just lurking upstream. The cold front will ooze into our northeast zones Tuesday night with the southerly flow aloft holding it's acceleration eastward.
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Prevailing high pressure brings precipitation free conditions with moderating temperatures throughout the remainder of the work week.
Sct-bkn mostly high clouds from this upstream activity will continue to affect southern Wisconsin overnight as the high clouds stream southeast. No impactful weather through Tuesday night with high pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Yet, it will remain about 5-9 degrees cooler along Lake Michigan for one more day.
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms occurring mainly across upper southeast Texas and the Highway 190 corridor of southwest Louisiana. /issued 319 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ Short Term [Tonight through Tuesday] This afternoon's surface analysis indicates a broad area of high pressure located over the eastern third of the CONUS with the southwestern periphery extending into central Texas.
Low to midlevel southwesterly flow and the development of a lee trough induced a Chinook Arch over the Rockies and high cloud development this afternoon. Cloud cover will continue to increase overnight along with a chance of a shower in the north ahead of a low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest. Cooler than normal temperatures (mid to upper 60s) and unsettled weather is expected for much of the week to varying degrees.
/Issued 336 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ Upper closed low centered over the Southern Appalachians will continue to drift southeast toward the Atlantic Coast during the short term.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the northwest late tonight as a warm front swings through. Tonight we will start to see return flow around the high, and the development of a lee side trough in Montana. During the day Tuesday, a strong h850 thermal ridge will develop across western North Dakota ahead of a broad h500 trough. By the time a cold front approaches from Montana, breaking the cap should be possible. The h500 trough will continue to impact weather for the remainder of the work week as the eastern CONUS region is under the influence of a mid level blocking pattern.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly below normal through Tuesday as a dry cold front sweeps through the region.
Showers will continue to develop and spread across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho tonight as an upper low approaches from the northwest. The center of the low will move into our area by late Tuesday.
Clouds have thinned out over much of the Tennessee Valley today thanks to daytime heating, yielding temperatures that will top out in the low 80s. A nearly-stationary upper level low centered over the Carolinas may provide forcing for some patchy thunderstorms this afternoon in far northeastern AL, but the majority of the area should remain mostly dry. Thanks to the continued influence of an upper level low parked over the Carolinas, the Tennessee Valley will remain under a pattern of relatively mild northeasterly flow. As a result, high temperatures will fall below average in the low-to-mid 80s.
As expected, showers have diminished with the loss of heating beneath the upper level closed low.
The weather on Tuesday won't be quite as wet or raw, but it will still be much cooler than average. The second half of the week will feature mountain showers and become progressively warmer. Satellite was depicting a north-south band of enhanced cloudiness and cold cloud tops associated with a weak cold front heading east toward the Cascades.
1035 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Currently temperatures are in the low to mid 80s and winds are light and variable across the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery depict a well-defined upper level low over the Carolinas with a trough axis extending to the southwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, troughiness also dominates our region. A broad trough extends from the Florida Keys and up north along the Atlantic coast of the peninsula. A trough extends to the eastern Gulf of Mexico from a large upper level low over the Carolinas, causing light and variable winds across our coastal waters.
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 High pressure will move into the region from the north with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week. An inverted trof pivoting into ILN/s eastern counties will offer weak low level convergence. Expect mostly clear sky conditions with only some high level clouds around the northern periphery of the low. Lows to continue on the cool side in the lower and middle 50s. with high pressure remaining across the Great Lakes.
However, no changes were made to the low temperature forecast. A similar day is expected on Tuesday with very little change in the placement of upper level features with the upper level ridge to our west remaining the dominant feature for our region.
913 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Quiescent weather conditions will prevail across the Mid-South overnight in the wake of a backdoor cold front. Temperatures will be similar to today's highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Fortunately, the lower dewpoints will keep heat indices closer to the actual temperature. /issued 344 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper-level low pressure system over eastern North Carolina with an associated front stalled from northern Mississippi to central Arkansas.
High pressure east of the area continues to keep drier air across the area this afternoon. This high pressure and interface between the drier lake enhanced airmass and the continental moist airmass will continue to drive the weather through the short term.
1026 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Prevailing high pressure brings precipitation free conditions with moderating temperatures throughout the remainder of the work week.
This a litte ahead of some of the high res models. All indications are that shower chances will increase from west to east through the night as the upper low to the west moves in.
A weak cold front is dropping through the region, with some scattered showers and clouds. Tonight and Tuesday: With relatively dry air in the lower levels, warming has resulted in deep mixing with cumulus forming around 7k feet. Nevertheless, some convection has been able to break through, mainly in the convergent areas over northeast MS in proximity to the approaching cold front. This back door cold front is being driven by a weak spoke of mid level energy rotating around the, anomalously far south, cold core low near the southeast US coast. While Tuesday will be somewhat cooler than today, the main distinction with this front will be the reinforcement of the low level dry air as dewpoints fall back into the 50s.
335 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 An upper-level, closed low pressure system will settle across the Carolinas through the short term. With the forecast area to the west of the low, drier air from the north will filter in in the upper- levels with northeasterly upslope flow near the surface keeping the lower levels cooler and moist. Tomorrow, the upper-low will drift from SC to NC, allowing moisture to wrap farther around the low and with reduced upslope flow. Thiem The slow-to-depart cutoff upper low will remain an influence to the local area at the start of the forecast period.
/Issued 336 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ Upper closed low centered over the Southern Appalachians will continue to drift southeast toward the Atlantic Coast during the short term. but potential remains to reach warmer highs with breaks in clouds 41 An upper level cutoff low will finally begin to lift north on Wednesday taking with it some of the cooler than average temperatures with it.
Upper-level low pressure approaching from the south will bring increasing chances of scattered afternoon and evening precipitation by the second half of the week. Upper level low pressure will continue to spin in the Carolinas today, as it remains cut off from the mean flow. Temperatures will be seasonable, as highs are expected to be around 80 degrees outside of the ridges.
The other feature of interest is a mid and upper level low that has now pushed into the Carolinas, as this feature is bringing increased moisture in the mid and upper levels taking on the form of increased coverage in clouds. This along with perturbations around this closed low are sparking off a few showers this morning mainly in the far southeast. This mid and upper level low will begin to meander slow northward tonight. An upper level low remain just to our southeast and is providing some mid and upper level clouds tonight.
308 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Largely a persistence forecast as high pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes while stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Carolinas.
An upper level low situated off to our east continues to keep Middle TN in a northerly boundary layer flow, fending off typical summertime heat, humidity and rain chances.
An upstream trough digging out of the PacNW into the Rockies will be inducing a strong southerly low level response beginning during the overnight hours. Another warm day on tap Tuesday with the cold front just lurking upstream. The cold front will ooze into our northeast zones Tuesday night with the southerly flow aloft holding it's acceleration eastward. This front will be draped mainly across the northern half of the CWA on Wednesday with cooler temperatures found up here and warm continuing to the south.
916 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2020 A trough expanding over the West Coast will bring cooling, and a deeper marine layer through midweek.
252 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will remain in place today and tonight, with a closed low parked over the Carolinas and a strong ridge to the west and north from the upper Mississippi Valley to New England. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s still found in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
Thanks to the continued influence of an upper level low parked over the Carolinas, the Tennessee Valley will remain under a pattern of relatively mild northeasterly flow. As a result, high temperatures will fall below average in the low-to-mid 80s.
104 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will move into the region from the north with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week. A mid level closed low over South Carolina will continue drifting slowly southeast. Lows will be on the cool side, ranging from the the lower to mid 50s. with high pressure remaining across the Great Lakes.
An upper level ridge will remain situated over the southern and central plains with an upper trough across the northwestern United States. The heat and gusty south winds will hold for one last day while the upper level ridge remains stubbornly entrenched from the southern and central plains into the Great Lakes.
Upper low continues over the Carolinas and northern GA. High temperatures Today will be in the lower 80s across SE GA, mid 80s across NE FL except lower 80s immediate coast. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and 60s dew points will support low temperatures Tonight in the lower to mid 60s, except upper 60s immediate coast.
Wednesday looks dry and quiet with high pressure ridge building back toward the region.
1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 An upper level low meanders around the Carolinas today and tonight, before wandering about the middle Atlantic states much of the week. A cut off upper level low pressure system will remain over the Carolinas today and tonight. Cooler temperatures associated with the upper low will also keep afternoon highs below normal for this time of year. A closed upper level low will remain well to the south of our area into Wednesday before drifting slowly north Wednesday night. Models indicate the center of the low should be located near the VA/WV border by late Wednesday night. Latest model blend guidance indicates readings on Wednesday should be a few degrees warmer than those expected tomorrow.
Over the CWA high pressure aloft will continue. This pattern will sustain low level southerly flow with modest moisture advection driving surface dewpoints in the 50s by tomorrow afternoon beneath the upper ridge. This combined with afternoon heating and a slight breakdown in the ridge should create a moderately unstable airmass capable of isolated afternoon thunderstorms across our western counties.
332 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure remains in control for now, with dry and quiet weather. High pressure remains large-and-in-charge over the region, as an upper low stays distantly parked in the Carolinas. Dewpoints meanwhile will only go up slightly into the lower-mid 50s Wednesday; still very comfortable values for this time of year.
357 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 A slow moving, blocky weather pattern was over the region this morning with an upper level ridge extending from the southern Plains northeast into WI and MI with a slow moving cut-off upper level low over South Carolina. GKS The gradual warming trend will continue for the remainder of the work week due to persistent south-southwest surface winds, and an upper level ridge still over our area between the slow moving cut-off upper level low moving northward into the Ohio Valley region and the northern stream upper level trough/low moving eastward into the Northern Plains.
Windy conditions are expected to develop on Tuesday with lingering breeziness on Wednesday as a low pressure system moves through the western states.
207 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure remains in control for now, with dry and quiet weather. High pressure remains large-and-in-charge over the region, as an upper low stays distantly parked in the Carolinas. Dewpoints meanwhile will only go up slightly into the lower-mid 50s Wednesday; still very comfortable values for this time of year.
This stratus deck should continue to expand as we head toward sunrise, with morning lows primarily in the low to mid 70s across South-Central Texas. It should be a bit warmer on Wednesday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
109 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Prevailing high pressure brings precipitation free conditions with moderating temperatures throughout the remainder of the work week.
While most areas will remain dry, an upper low will dive southward into the Carolinas this afternoon. On Tuesday, the upper low will remain over the Carolinas. Continued northerly low-level flow under a mid-level closed low anchored to the northeast reinforces an unseasonably dry air mass across the region.
A low pressure system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area this weekend. 1034 mb center over southern Quebec with extruded ridge into southwest portion of the Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, however, mid level channeled vorticity within mid-stream of Smokies cyclone. For tomorrow continued ridging surface/aloft to present with strong diurnal rise as airmass continues to moderate. Expect temperatures on order of two categories warmer. Plains to northern Upper Great Lakes mid level ridge to fully rex southeast CONUS cyclone. Systems deflected well northwest through north with staunch ridge in place.