Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
320 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 KEY MESSAGES - Patchy fog around the area early this morning - A cold front was passing through, which will bring slightly cooler highs today and Friday, but no impactful weather The only stations still reporting a visibility less than a quarter mile were Cooperstown and Cando North Dakota.
The latest observations and visible satellite imagery is showing sunny skies and reporting temperatures in the upper 50's to mid 60's which is around 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
526 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Far less wind awaits today following yesterday's impressive high winds, although a compact upper low currently lifting out of southern CO will do its best to spur a round of occasionally strong westerly winds. 2 AM surface pattern showed a Pacific cold front sweeping off the Caprock ahead of breezy SW winds and temps 10-20 degrees lower in its wake. Abundant high clouds will wane from W-E today behind the departing trough axis, although high temps will be capped in the 50s and 60s under much lower thicknesses.
driving a modified cold front into the forecast area. shifting winds to the northwest and turning temps a bit cooler but still above normal. Rainfall looks to expand over the eastern Ozarks on Friday as large scale lift is enhanced by the upper trough digging further into the Southern Plains. heaviest rainfall will be confined south and east of the forecast area as the base of the trough passes through Arkansas into the Ohio Valley. the slow moving axis of lift plus the higher than normal PWs led to going above the NBM 50th QPF percentile. The upper flow briefly becoming zonal in behind the trough combined with the Pacific air mass will leave the region dry and not quite as warm but still higher than normal through the weekend.
Highs will be cooler this afternoon behind the front, ranging from the upper single digits and lower teens across the northeast, to the upper 20s to lower 30s southwest. Tonight will become rather chilly for most, ranging from the single digits below zero northeast to the lower teens above southwest.
(Today and tonight) Far less wind awaits today following yesterday's impressive high winds, although a compact upper low currently lifting out of southern CO will do its best to spur a round of occasionally strong westerly winds. 2 AM surface pattern showed a Pacific cold front sweeping off the Caprock ahead of breezy SW winds and temps 10-20 degrees lower in its wake. Abundant high clouds will wane from W-E today behind the departing trough axis, although high temps will be capped in the 50s and 60s under much lower thicknesses.
541 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will amplify while slowly drifting eastward, pushing temperatures well above normal for late December. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain this weekend, followed by drier and briefly cooler conditions for New Years Day. 5H heights will continue to rise today as anomalous upper ridge sharpens over the region. Sunshine through thin high clouds will be prevalent for most of the day throughout central PA, with only the NW Mountains seeing increasing cloudiness late this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure area to affect the area.
256 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2022 Satellite imagery shows broad troffing and below normal heights over the western CONUS.
Current low clouds and fog present across the state should dissipate after sunrise, and temperatures should be anywhere from the low 40s to mid 50s from north to south, so you will need a light jacket as you head out this morning. Meanwhile, upper-mid level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate along the East Coast through Friday with east to northeasterly flow in place. Overnight lows tonight should be at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer with clouds persisting into the evening. By Friday, high pressure begins to drift offshore as upper level disturbance approaches the Southeast. High pressure continues to dominate over the Eastern Seaboard and into the Gulf waters.
409 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will slide to the east. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain this weekend. 5H heights will continue to rise today as anomalous upper ridge sharpens over the region. Sunshine through thin high clouds will be prevalent for most of the day throughout central PA, with only the NW Mountains seeing increasing cloudiness late this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure area to affect the area.
Rain will transition to snow for most areas this morning despite some above freezing temperatures.
652 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Aviation - Warm and wet weather ahead A quasi stationary high over the Atlantic has a ridge to extend through Nova Scotia. This has allowed warmer air to be advected into the the Great Lakes today and into tomorrow. An amplifying trough the will continue deepen through the central plains will ride the ridge bringing a tightening gradient through SW Michigan. The upper level trough will be amplified through the mid and lower levels.
412 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will amplify while slowly drifting eastward, pushing temperatures well above normal for late December. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain this weekend, followed by drier and briefly cooler conditions for New Years Day. 5H heights will continue to rise today as anomalous upper ridge sharpens over the region. Sunshine through thin high clouds will be prevalent for most of the day throughout central PA, with only the NW Mountains seeing increasing cloudiness late this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure area to affect the area.
641 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 An area of high pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will keep our weather quiet and very mild through Friday.
352 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front sliding south and east across the northern Plains, presently over southeast MT, northwest SD, and into eastern ND. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough moving across the Rockies and Plains, with a couple of embedded disturbances within the trough. Cold front will slide south to the Black Hills area and into northern NE this morning and then push slowly east as a warm front later today and tonight. Near zonal flow aloft across the region late this week will transition to southwesterly flow on New Year's Day as another large trough develops and tracks across the western US later this weekend.
606 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will amplify while slowly drifting eastward, pushing temperatures well above normal for late December. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain this weekend, followed by drier and briefly cooler conditions for New Years Day. 5H heights will continue to rise today as anomalous upper ridge sharpens over the region. Sunshine through thin high clouds will be prevalent for most of the day throughout central PA, with only the NW Mountains seeing increasing cloudiness late this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure area to affect the area.
After seeing sub-freezing temps acrs most of AR this time on Wed, predawn readings this mrng ranged fm the mid 50s to the mid 60s. Overall rain chcs wl start to diminish fm the west Fri/Fri night, as an upper trof apchs the region fm the west.
Outside of precipitation chances on the fringes of our forecast area, temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday as seasonal temperatures return to the region.
KEY MESSAGES - Patchy fog around the area early this morning - A cold front was passing through, which will bring slightly cooler highs today and Friday, but no impactful weather The only stations still reporting a visibility less than a quarter mile were Cooperstown and Cando North Dakota.
By tomorrow afternoon the main trough that was sitting over the Rockies today, will finally move out over the region, without much fanfare.
At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will extend from northern Minnesota to southwest Kansas this morning, with the southern portion of the low strengthening and tracking northeast to Iowa by this evening. An area of precipitation northwest of the low will track across southeastern South Dakota today, and may clip parts of the far eastern CWA. High pressure settles in behind the exiting system tonight, with the high sliding east on Friday and the region then becoming situated between the high and a low pressure trough over the lee of the Rockies. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 20s across west central Minnesota, to the mid 30s across south central South Dakota.
315 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front sliding south and east across the northern Plains, presently over southeast MT, northwest SD, and into eastern ND. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough moving across the Rockies and Plains, with a couple of embedded disturbances within the trough. Cold front will slide south to the Black Hills area and into northern NE this morning and then push slowly east as a warm front later today and tonight. Near zonal flow aloft across the region late this week will transition to southwesterly flow on New Year's Day as another large trough develops and tracks across the western US later this weekend.
547 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
A weak cold front will then pass late tnt as the low currently over MN moves across Ontario. High pressure to then prevail for late Fri afternoon and night.
118 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure remains off the coast through Friday, allowing the warming trend to continue through the end of the week.
1020 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
1044 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure along the East Coast will amplify while slowly drifting eastward, pushing temperatures well above normal for late December. Low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley will bring some light rain this weekend, followed by drier and briefly cooler conditions for New Years Day. 5H heights will continue to rise today as anomalous upper ridge sharpens over the region. Sunshine through thin high clouds will be prevalent for most of the day throughout central PA, with only the NW Mountains seeing increasing cloudiness late this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure area to affect the area.
1020 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front sliding south and east across the northern Plains, presently over southeast MT, northwest SD, and into eastern ND. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough moving across the Rockies and Plains, with a couple of embedded disturbances within the trough. Cold front will slide south to the Black Hills area and into northern NE this morning and then push slowly east as a warm front later today and tonight. Near zonal flow aloft across the region late this week will transition to southwesterly flow on New Year's Day as another large trough develops and tracks across the western US later this weekend.
Widespread drizzle is also not favored in these situations with a lot of mixing, but we still see a signal for increased upward vertical motion in a fairly deep saturated surface layer this afternoon (with cloud tops well above freezing per IR imagery), so perhaps we will see patchier areas of precipitation that more closely resemble light rain than drizzle. - Warm and wet weather ahead A quasi stationary high over the Atlantic has a ridge to extend through Nova Scotia. This has allowed warmer air to be advected into the the Great Lakes today and into tomorrow. An amplifying trough the will continue deepen through the central plains will ride the ridge bringing a tightening gradient through SW Michigan. The upper level trough will be amplified through the mid and lower levels.
Upper level ridging extends from Florida northward along the eastern seaboard.
1228 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Temperatures will be warmer today and Friday with rain chances increasing starting tonight.
This is associated with a surface cold front that will progress eastward out of the midwest and pass through Lower Michigan by late Friday morning.
1242 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure remains off the coast through Friday, allowing the warming trend to continue through the end of the week.
157 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 A mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains today is progged to lift north and east away from the area tonight. A cold front will overspread the area in it's wake. High pressure will build over the area this evening and tonight, and with some residual low level moisture lingering across the area we may see some areas of fog formation for much of the region.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level trough is centered across the Desert Southwest, placing West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft. The aforementioned upper level trough will track across the region on Friday. As the trough tracks across the area, isolated light showers are possible, mainly for locations south of I-20. The extensive cloud cover and possible showers will help to keep temperatures near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s.
Latest 29/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a second H500 trough moving east through the Panhandles during the day tomorrow.
Afternoon high temperatures will be cooler into the 40s to low 50s, warmer southward with more sun this afternoon.
229 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Key Points: - Winds die down tonight behind cold front.
Best opportunity for light accumulations would be in/around Estherville and could be a bit tricky with soundings depicting limited ice introduction and below freezing surface temps yielding light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
155 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
Attention then turns toward a digging eastern Pac upper trough entering the western CONUS Sat-Sun.
High pressure influence persisting today, though a trough pushing eastward through the central US will begin to shunt high pressure more seaward into tonight. These showers will diminish into the afternoon, as yesterday's weak, inverted trough dissipates. A few light showers persisting north of the Cape late this morning will continue to fizzle through mid-afternoon, as yesterday's weak inverted trough dissipates.
The passage of a cold front will allow low temperatures to be cooler than what were observed this morning, but readings will remain well above the seasonal averages.
A broad flat upper ridge will be positioned over the SW coast at the beginning of the forecast period as copious Pacific moisture rides over the ridge through Oregon and into SRN Idaho where a mix of Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings are in place for the mountains.
CIMSS MIMIC total precipitable water product highlights the sharp moisture gradient between the cool, continental airmass to the north and the warmer, maritime airmass to the south. While numerical weather prediction guidance has been persistent in pushing the warmer airmass northward, the cooler Florida Bay says otherwise. From synopsis, expansive high pressure centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through the end of the week.
Highs today will be a tad cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid to upper 60s for most. The gradual cooling trend will continue into tomorrow thanks to cloud cover and continued lowering thickness as the longwave trough passes overhead. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will remain in the 40s for most with 30s in the higher elevations.
120 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 High pressure remains off the coast through Friday, allowing the warming trend to continue through the end of the week.
507 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 (This evening through Friday) An upper level trough is centered across the Desert Southwest, placing West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft. The aforementioned upper level trough will track across the region on Friday. As the trough tracks across the area, isolated light showers are possible, mainly for locations south of I-20. The extensive cloud cover and possible showers will help to keep temperatures near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s.
Southwesterly wind gusts around 40-45 MPH persist ahead of a subtle cold front this evening. The subtle cold front tonight resets highs back to the 40s through the day tomorrow. The low level jet has been tilting more southwesterly throughout the day catching warm, but dryer air and advecting it into the area.
603 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 A mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains today is progged to lift north and east away from the area tonight. A cold front will overspread the area in it's wake. High pressure will build over the area this evening and tonight, and with some residual low level moisture lingering across the area we may see some areas of fog formation for much of the region.
A upper trough extending southward from NW central Canada to eastern Divide will flatten as it moves eastward over the next couple of days. A southerly flow rounding high pressure situated off of the East Coast will make for milder and much more comfortable conditions, with lows ranging in the low 40s east to near 50 west.
In-between the two waves of moisture, drying in the dendritic growth zone is showing up on cross sections, meaning that a period of freezing rain is possible (20-30 percent probability of greater than measurable freezing rain), mainly in northwest Montana. Winter weather advisories have been issued for the northern Clearwater Mountains, through the lower Clark Fork Region (including Lookout Pass), and Lincoln County for the snow and wintry mix.
648 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
- Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough over the Great Plains. Farther West, zonal flow followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridges is moving onto the Pac Northwest coastline stretching back over the northern Pacific.
an upper level trough axis extends from the northern plains south through the Tri-State area into south Texas during the day, moving east during the night as some ridging tries to build in from the southwest.
Key Points: - Winds die down tonight behind cold front.
855 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
536 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure.
An attendant cold front has advanced across portions of north/northwest Oklahoma this afternoon.
(The rest of tonight) Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a cold front currently near a KJLN-KSNL lines moves through the remainder of the area.
1135 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 A mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains today is progged to lift north and east away from the area tonight. A cold front will overspread the area in it's wake. High pressure will build over the area this evening and tonight, and with some residual low level moisture lingering across the area we may see some areas of fog formation for much of the region.
1041 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 (The rest of tonight) Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a cold front currently near a KJLN-KSNL lines moves through the remainder of the area.
104 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 High pressure will persist through Friday.
It remains quite warm today with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
The rest of the day will be punctuated by two warm fronts. At pass level, namely Lookout and Lolo passes, 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible with this first warm front.
(Tonight through Thursday) As the upper level trough departs the area, warm and moist southwesterly flow will develop once again.
(Rest of tonight) Another mild night across the Tennessee Valley as southerly flow continues to keep warmer conditions streaming into the area. Showers and storms will fire along a cold front across the ArkLaTex region tonight, and slowly spread east through the morning hours.
1106 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 (Rest of tonight) Another mild night across the Tennessee Valley as southerly flow continues to keep warmer conditions streaming into the area. Showers and storms will fire along a cold front across the ArkLaTex region tonight, and slowly spread east through the morning hours.
Above average to well above average highs are expected for the rest of the short term period as upper level heights begin to rise out ahead of a trough that will begin to dig into the U.
315 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 Limited light rain chances are expected today across Northwest Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio as a cold front approaches.
251 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 After a day of record setting, remarkably spring feeling weather, a cold front has now progressed through most of Iowa, and will be moving through Illinois before sunrise. High temperatures at all places today have already been set at Midnight, with temperatures falling to the upper 20s and lower 30s behind the cold front through 2 AM, likely falling to the lower 20s northwest to lower 30s east by sunrise. Clouds will be the main problem for today's forecast, as models show cloudy skies through the day, but looking at satellite, we are more patchy than the models show behind the cold front.
1007 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 (This evening through Friday) An upper level trough is centered across the Desert Southwest, placing West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft. The aforementioned upper level trough will track across the region on Friday. As the trough tracks across the area, isolated light showers are possible, mainly for locations south of I-20. The extensive cloud cover and possible showers will help to keep temperatures near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s.
556 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Today through Saturday) A broad moisture plume is showing up on satellite imagery this evening west of the Mississippi River that is riding along a cold front headed our way.
Each of these waves will help produce some light precip ahead of the main trough and cold front that will approach from the west. The cold front looks to move through during the day Saturday.
Low level moisture will also increase slightly so expect above average temperatures early Sat morning in the low 30s to low 40s NW to SE respectively.
Sat and Sat ngt wl bring benign wx to the Natural State as weak sfc ridging blds in to close out 2022.
Aloft, high pressure over Cuba will help bring in slightly drier air into the area while the approaching frontal boundary will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Temps here have the best chance of warming into the low to mid 30s. Cooler temps will likely be the rule again farther east as thicker cloud cover will be sustained for a longer period of time. GEFS still remains the furthest north, which is largely responsible for some of the higher end POPs/QPF on the northern fringe still remaining in this forecast cycle.
Also, a surface trof of low pressure will develop over southeastern CO and eastern NM today, then slide eastward into our forecast area late today and remain in the vicinity tonight and Saturday.
Highs will reach into the low to mid 80s across South Florida today under partly cloudy skies and east-southeast flow. Aloft, high pressure over Cuba will help bring in slightly drier air into the area while the approaching frontal boundary will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Key Messages: - Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend.
659 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 Strong high pressure will continue to slowly move offshore. A weakened cold front will track into the region on New Year's Eve. Lower clouds, more wind, and higher surface dew points allowed temps to remain steady or slowly rise from midnight onward, and early morning readings are quite tolerable for late December, ranging from the mid 30s southeast to the lower 50s over the Northwest Mountains.