Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
905 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017 9pm Update: Guidance brings a possibility of some very patchy freezing fog overnight. Will add some patchy freezing fog to some of the favorable locations around the area. Proton 6pm Update: Upper trough continues over the Rocky Mountain States this evening. Weak upper trough passing through eastern Montana will slowly exit to our east as broad upper ridge builds east. However the ridge will not reach too far into Montana as a strong Pacific jet stream will have a greater influence.
An upper trough will move out of the area tonight. High pressure aloft will build back into the area beginning Sunday. The axis of the sheared upper trof sits along the UT/NV border this evening with areas of light snow across nrn and central UT east of the axis and over and west of the mtns. A fairly tight northwesterly surface gradient sits across the CWA and the low level nwly flow is precluding the light snow from making it into the ern valleys. The trof will continue to shear apart as upstream ridging noses in from the nw overnight into Sun and precip will wane. The heights continue to rise Sun thru Mon while the ridge axis stays to our west. The ridge finally moves overhead Tue aftn on its way east ahead of the next Pac storm.
1230 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 A weak front in northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will lift north as a warm front on Sunday.
There is general agreement that a positively- tilted trough will reach the PacNW coast on Wed and move over the Four Corners region on Thu, but there is no consensus on how the upper air pattern evolves thereafter.
Less coverage in the southern most counties has allowed temperatures to fall a little further than previously forecast, so we could see some low temperatures early Sunday morning dip close to freezing in those areas. Have updated the low temperature forecast to reflect this.
Clouds will gradually thin through the day but the big benefit of this high pressure will be light winds, so that highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s will feel fairly comfortable.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Relatively quiet as low pressure lifts out of the Southern Plains into Missouri and finally into far southern/southeast Iowa before pushing off to the east Sunday afternoon. Short term models confine the precip a little further south than previous runs and slow the saturation as the low lifts north. There will be a pretty big contrast in temps tomorrow with locations north of the warm front that is associated with the low in the mid 30s while south of the front (I-80 and south) temps will be in the low to mid 40s.
303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 Some patchy freezing drizzle making slick roadways over northwest Nebraska according to road reports. Freezing temperatures to the west of a Merriman to Oshkosh line. Light southwest to west flow to continue over night and will temper the low temperatures. Lows tonight in the teens along the Platte river Valley and in the low 20s over the remainder of western Nebraska.
Snow showers are likely with a reinforcing cold front late tomorrow. upper trough. The high level clouds that are streaming across the Ern CONUS are expected to gradually shift further eastward through the night as per trough axis progress. There is an outside chance of a few light snow showers developing early in the AM over the higher terrain of Garrett/Tucker/Preston counties associated with low pressure moving up the coast.
A positive trough will deepen helping to promote lift at the surface and dragging in cooler air from the north. As the low lifts out by early Saturday morning, this will erode the band of light snow. With precipitation continuing to fall and temperatures dropping to below freezing across north and portions of central GA, residual water on the roadways may freeze as roadway temperatures also fall to near/below freezing. Temperatures will climb above freezing by mid morning with the Warning/Advisories expiring by 10AM.
Satellite images indicate that the low clouds now blanket most of the lower elevations, including the Treasure Valley, most of the Western Magic Valley, and portions of southeast Oregon from east of Burns to Ontario and north to Baker City.
813 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
Temperatures have been able to climb into the lower to middle 50s across the Rio Grande and western Brush Country to middle and upper 40s over the Coastal Bend where clouds persisted. A few spots in the Victoria Crossroads could flirt freezing temperatures, but confidence is not high enough to issue a freeze warning. Highs should be able to reach the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies.
Freezing temperatures will be likely for most of the area which is in line with the current forecast. West-northwest winds have efficiently brought in much drier dewpoints and warmer air into the region this afternoon. This will relax later this evening as the trough shifts to the Arklatex and bring winds down to below 5 kts generally across the CWA. This should set up an efficient radiational cooling set up for the overnight period resulting in lows in the morning to reach freezing or below again for many areas. As the current upper trough shifts eastward, the region will be dominated by northwest flow and building H5 heights. Would have raised highs a bit higher if not for the northerly wind component tempering the temp potential, thus have highs reaching the low to mid 60s as a result.
However, portions of east and southeast Mississippi where the snow was still falling this afternoon and temperatures were around freezing will see the potential for "black ice" to develop toward midnight as temperatures drop into the upper 20s. This will result in hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges and overpasses. Saturday morning lows will be in the low to mid 20s across the CWA.
1023 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
The evening temperatures are beginning cooler than last evening. Therefore expect overnight lows for Northeast Montana to range from the teens in north & east to the lowers 30s and mid 20s in the west and south.
Dry conditions continue throughout Northwest California as high pressure remains in control of western North America. with cold air settling into valley bottoms and warmer air along the ridges. A strong area of high pressure is setting up shop over western North America, while the main storm track remains well west of the West Coast.
With the deathridge parked overhead, am not at all optimistic that it will budge much anytime soon.
Meanwhile, GOES East water vapor/ir imagery showing a fairly vigorous mid-level trough dropping south through western Ontario. Will be watching that mid-level trough drop quickly southward across the area tonight with bulk of snowfall for our area falling in the 6 pm to midnight time frame. Conditions improve through the day Saturday as high pressure builds in. Another very weak mid-level trough/secondary cold front drops southeast across the area Saturday night.
824 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 Northwest flow remains over the forecast area as an upper ridge very slowly builds in from the west. Warm and dry conditions anticipated through the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure to our west continues to dominate the weather pattern across the area. For our forecast area, east of the divide, temperatures are much warmer with lower surface pressure.
A highly amplified upper tropospheric pattern was in place over the CONUS this afternoon with a sharp blocking west coast ridge extending from off the Baja California to Barrow, Alaska. Surface ridging builds in for Saturday with a H850 downslope-modified airmass building in behind the ridge axis. Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees warmer given the increase in temps aloft with light northwesterly winds.
For tonight, a cold front/wind shift will pass by the area. Even so, slightly warmer weather is expected with temperatures near average for Saturday afternoon.
A cold front will move through from north to south through mid day, this will provide an increase in wind speed as well as a wind shift out of the northwest.
Saturday will see a slight warmup from today with a light northerly flow as the high pressure builds and shifts a little further eastward. This coming week continues to look dry as the ridge of high pressure remains anchored to the western states. Disturbances will continue to be forced up and over this ridge, which is preventing any storms from entering the area.
525 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 The CONUS is locked in a blocking pattern with UL ridging dominating over CA and into the Intermountain West, and troughing over the Great Lakes and into the East Coast. A gradient will setup across the forecast area tomorrow, with highs struggling to exceed the freezing mark in NE MO and low 40s dominating to the south and west of the KC area.
Upper level flow will become more northwesterly this weekend as the Hudson Bay low pushes its way to the eastern CONUS and the upper ridge to our west expands eastward.
Skies clear somewhat overnight with radiational cooling leading to a slightly cooler start to Saturday than Friday. Northerly advection of a cooler air mass may keep temperature readings a degree or two shy of Friday's highs, but overall, it will feel like a very similar day to Friday.
Additional snowfall accumulation is expected tonight as a few more spokes of lift move through the forward flank of the upper- level trough; thus, the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded in time and area. Surface temperatures are expected to fall well below freezing for most of the region tonight, and nighttime lows have been significantly lowered. Freezing of slush and meltwater on roadways is certain; thus, travelers should be alert for hazardous travel conditions tonight into Saturday morning. Post-sunrise, temperatures will gradually warm above freezing, with highs in the 40s (F) expected. Sunshine is also expected as the trough axis swings by and advects dry air into the region.
Overall, temps will fall into the low to mid 20s across the area. Once the temps get below freezing and if the roads in that area are still wet, then black ice will be forming. However, portions of east and southeast Mississippi where the snow was still falling this afternoon and temperatures were around freezing will see the potential for "black ice" to develop toward midnight as temperatures drop into the upper 20s. This will result in hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges and overpasses. Saturday morning lows will be in the low to mid 20s across the CWA.
504 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 The High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning have been allowed to expire. Amplified ridge-trough pattern remains in place across the CONUS, with north-northwest flow over our CWA. the region will see amplified H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country. w/ a cutoff upper low/trough combo over the east. but carry the dynamics north of the area before getting caught in the circulation of the trough/low to the east.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 42 23 42 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 39 23 39 / 60 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 26 39 23 39 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 38 21 36 / 80 20 30 0 NC.
420 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS with deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country. Upper ridging over the next several days will move very little.
Decided for these areas to go ahead and undercut guidance a bit, but still managed to keep all the CWA above freezing due to surface winds remaining a bit elevated. Will issue SPS for the northern tier given the close proximity to the freezing mark overnight.
Temperatures range from the mid 70s in rain cooled areas to the lower 80s elsewhere. A strong cold front will approach the Florida Keys tonight. This cold front will blast through the island chain Saturday morning. Rain chances will increase overnight as the aforementioned cold front approaches the Florida Keys. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for nearshore and offshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys overnight as sustained south to southwest surface winds increase to near 20 knots.
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) continues to dominate our area. As is typical under the RRR, prevailing winds will flow east to west, keeping the area dry, and producing warmer than normal temperatures over the mountains and ridges.
417 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE High amplitude ridge axis extending s to n from AZ through the PacNW with n to nw flow over NM. Ridge axis to drift slowly ewd next 24 hrs as weak sfc lee trough develops. Above normal temperatures are expected for the next 7 days, despite a couple of back door cold fronts. Through the weekend, the high amplitude upper level ridge across the western CONUS will slowly inch eastward.
Temperatures will generally run cooler than normal in the northwest flow pattern, and a series of upper waves moving through the main trough will bring periodic chances for precipitation.
Surface based cold front still remains stalled along the southern periphery of Marion/Putnam/Flagler counties where some surface based strong storms with damaging winds/hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out through the overnight hours. Expect morning lows to bottom out in the 40s just about all locations as Low pressure exits the Atlc Coast and NW winds kick in towards morning and rainfall begins to end from the NW to SE.
West-northwest winds have efficiently brought in much drier dewpoints and warmer air into the region this afternoon. This will relax later this evening as the trough shifts to the Arklatex and bring winds down to below 5 kts generally across the CWA. This should set up an efficient radiational cooling set up for the overnight period resulting in lows in the morning to reach freezing or below again for many areas. As the current upper trough shifts eastward, the region will be dominated by northwest flow and building H5 heights. Would have raised highs a bit higher if not for the northerly wind component tempering the temp potential, thus have highs reaching the low to mid 60s as a result.
716 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 Skies clearing over the region as the upper lvl ridge builds in.
418 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 Amplified ridge-trough pattern remains in place across the CONUS, with north-northwest flow over our CWA. the region will see amplified H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country. w/ a cutoff upper low/trough combo over the east. but carry the dynamics north of the area before getting caught in the circulation of the trough/low to the east.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level ridge over the Atlantic Ocean and upper level trough over the Plains and portions of the Mississippi Valley. A weak cold front over the Upper Midwest will drop south into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows Saturday night dropping back into the lower 20s at most locations.
Cloud cover and continued southwest winds will tend to keep temps a little warmer than last night however the eastern ozarks will still see temps possibly into the teens given the dry airmass in place and sheltered elevation/valley areas. A cold front currently across Nebraska and Iowa will move south into the area Tomorrow morning.
648 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Aviation A low pressure system will move in from the northwest and bring snow tonight into Saturday.
The above mentioned reinforcing cold front trailing southward from SE moving clipper system will sweep across the area during Saturday, veering winds back to the NW in the latter afternoon and evening. Highs should warm up more than today with a return of more sun, into the low/mid 40s. A good chill is expected Saturday night as cold high pressure situated over the Rockies extends its influence to the east. Somewhat colder temperatures than tonight are expected, with lows in the lower 20s most spots.
The pattern aloft was highly amplified with an upper ridge along the western CONUS, northerly flow across the Central Plains and a trough to the east from Ontario south through the Great Lakes and Ohio valley region. A cold frontal boundary crossed our region this morning, and while cooling behind this boundary is not as cold as a day ago, the cooler air across eastern Nebraska and Kansas will hold temperatures down compared to locations to the west. Overall temperatures will be on the upswing as the cooler airmass exits farther to the east with the departing upper trough and warmer air advects onto the Central Plains in rising heights as the western upper ridge builds east.
High wind gusts appear to be over and plan to take down the high wind warning with the afternoon package. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer and less windy as the western U. upper ridge expands eastward.
Snow showers are likely with a reinforcing cold front late tomorrow. upper trough. High level clouds that are streaming across the Ern CONUS are expected to shift eastward through the night as the trough axis shifts. There is an outside chance of a few light snow showers developing early in the AM over the higher terrain of Garrett/Tucker/Preston counties associated with low pressure moving up the coast.
A broken deck of high clouds are gradually thinning this evening, but are keeping temperatures a bit warmer than forecast in the meantime. Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level ridge over the Atlantic Ocean and upper level trough over the Plains and portions of the Mississippi Valley. A weak cold front over the Upper Midwest will drop south into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows Saturday night dropping back into the lower 20s at most locations.
641 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 The burst of northerly winds and colder air appears to be fairly well correlated to the lower clouds, which extend north of a line from Cando to just north of Fargo to Wadena.
Cold frontal boundary associated with this wave to move through this afternoon into this evening with CAA expected across the area tonight into early Saturday. Temperatures to be cooler for Saturday with highs only in the lower 20s north to around 30 south for Saturday.
Dew points are in the lower to mid 30s, so a hard freeze does not seem certain. Temperatures have been able to climb into the lower to middle 50s across the Rio Grande and western Brush Country to middle and upper 40s over the Coastal Bend where clouds persisted. A few spots in the Victoria Crossroads could flirt freezing temperatures, but confidence is not high enough to issue a freeze warning. Highs should be able to reach the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies.
929 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
Latest model guidance continues to indicate low temperatures in the low to mid 20s for areas north of Interstate 10 and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s along the immediate coast. Freezing conditions are expected for much of tonight before ending by mid- morning tomorrow. /issued 716 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ Skies clearing over the region as the upper lvl ridge builds in.
NAM has been very inconsistent with this system and seems unreasonable as moisture will be very shallow and mainly below 10,000 feet, so anything more than a dusting in the higher elevations on the northern Plateau is very unlikely. Winds will turn to the southwest around 15Z and become gusty around 20 to 25KTs as a dry cold front approaches.
Warm and dry conditions anticipated through the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure to our west continues to dominate the weather pattern across the area. For our forecast area, east of the divide, temperatures are much warmer with lower surface pressure.
Axis of a high pressure ridge over the area will provide light winds, though stronger high pressure building to our north late in the day will start to provide onshore gradient flow. Coastal sections will reach the lower 80s, except upper 70s along the Volusia coast. Axis of high pressure ridge across the waters will provide light winds today with seas 2-3 feet. Stronger high pressure building north of the waters will start to produce an onshore gradient wind late in the day.
/issued 506 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/ WV imagery shows two troughs in the west. One digging south thru the PacNW, and a persistent closed low off the SoCal/Baja coast, which is keeping SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Leeside troughing is set to develop on the Front Range later today ahead of the PacNW trough, increasing return flow and bringing dewpoints in the 60s into the lwr Trans Pecos by 18Z. Although thicknesses are forecast to peak this afternoon, temperatures should keep climbing thru Mon afternoon, as sfc flow continues veering to SW and the PacNW trough approaches.
All told, total additional snowfall for the period beginning this afternoon and continuing into Monday should not add up to much more than an inch or two at the high end, and with not much winds, have decided not to go for additional headlines at this time.
Morning fog settled under the stable low level ridge and extended the dense fog advisory for our southern FL zones including Marion, Putnam and Flagler counties through 10 am. Max Temps will reach the upper 70s to low 80s generally west of Highway 301, with onshore flow brining slightly cooler temps compared to recent days along the coast with highs in the lower 70s.
Snowfall is expected to persist through much of Monday, before an upper trough moves overhead causing snow to slide east of the area. Additional snowfall from today through Monday will range from 3 to 6 inches across much of the lower elevations (lesser totals towards Miles City and Baker), to 4 to 8 inches for the Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills, to 6 to 14 inches for the mountains. Highs today will be in the lower teens for many areas, with temperatures struggling to make it above zero on Monday as the arctic air deepens.
High pressure ridging across the waters will keep light winds and seas through the period.
the trough across Weest Coast will continue to dig south, helping kick the flow form its current zonal form to the southwest as we move into the beginning of the work week. Downstream effects from this pattern evolution are already being seen with the lee-side troughing in Wyoming and increasing pressure gradient across the Plains. The low will shift more fully into the Plains today, tightening the pressure gradient across Kansas and Missouri rather significantly.
536 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east across Pennsylvania later today.
949 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A warm front will then lift northward tonight into Monday bringing a return of precipitation to the region. Temperatures will range from the lower 40s north to near 50 south of the Ohio River. Additional rain chances will move in overnight and then push northwards on Monday associated with a warm frontal boundary and increase in moisture.
Gusty southerly winds will occur today ushering in a warmer air mass. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. An upper level trough will dig south across the west coast today into Monday then start to slowly spread east into the middle of the week. Moisture will start to increase across the area as lift spreads northeast into the region ahead of the trough.
Did sharpen the highs for tomorrow across the southern zones, where the gradient will be impressive, even just across the southern counties.