Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, pretty much a repeat forecast for Saturday, with hot and dry weather continuing, as high pressure aloft prevails. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s, with highs on Saturday in the mid and upper 90s.
An upper low over far northeastern Manitoba will rotate a short wave across southeastern Manitoba this afternoon, and bring some light showers to portions of northwestern and north central Minnesota. Lighter winds and slightly cooler temperatures behind this wave will bring more widespread, mid to upper 40s lows for tonight as cloud cover decreases overnight. Sunday will be cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s, with afternoon skies in the northeast developing some cu again as cyclonic flow continues over northern MN. The first short wave to bring precip to the area will mainly impact the MN side of the FA as short wave 500mb trough slides southeast as the upper level flow across North America transitions to western CONUS ridging and long wave trough digging over the Great Lakes.
355 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Scattered showers with some embedded thunder will push across southern and central Illinois today ahead of an incoming cold front.
00Z upper air analysis places an upper level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. /issued 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ A broad ridge remains in control of the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. This pattern will hold for another 24 hours before the ridge retreats to the west as a relatively strong September trough digs over the eastern CONUS. As the aforementioned trough begins to dig over the east, a weak, slow-moving cold front is forecast to drop south across the CWA Saturday night and Sunday. Anomalous moisture along the trough axis will push precipitable water upward to near 2 inches Sunday which is roughly in the 90th percentile. Instability looks to be somewhat limited Saturday night, but will perk up during the day Sunday along/ahead of the cold front.
A cold front will move SE towards Nrn AR by the latter half of Saturday. A cold front will drop south towards the state Sat afternoon.
Fairly benign weather pattern will setup for the remainder of the weekend with an upper level ridge remaining in place over the southeast. Expect the warming trend from Saturday to continue with highs in the low 90s expected.
There is a Slight Chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally north of I-20 during the afternoon and evening hours as a weak cold front moves into this area during the afternoon and evening hours. The cold front will likely not move in early enough to have a cooling effect on temperatures in the Big Country, so highs will still work their way into the mid/upper 90s.
Today, the first day of the Labor Day Weekend, features dry and sunny conditions under northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Winds will generally be light therefore, though westerly gusts could reach or exceed 20mph during the second half of the afternoon near the ND/SD border as the high pressure center shifts east.
as high pressure aloft shifts across the local area to start the week.
Some areas in the western valleys will see lows this morning at or below freezing, which is not that unusual for early September. Dry weather is in the forecast for today and Sunday as high pressure will reside over the region.
411 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery indicates the back edge of the low stratus has reached areas roughly from near Redwood Falls to St. Cloud, but the high clouds layered over it makes it difficult to be precise. With northwest flow increasing early this morning, the back edge of the low ceilings will make steady progress east.
540 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Scattered showers with some embedded thunder will push across southern and central Illinois today ahead of an incoming cold front.
The more noteworthy area though is central portions where this northwest flow is moving over the relatively warmer waters of Sakakawea and creating some lake enhanced clouds. Exiting upper low and associated trough will bring a mild and dry day today. Some moisture wrapping around the low could provide for some clouds at times, although dry air in the lower atmosphere should limit any chances for precipitation today. High pressure ridge looks to build in from the west tonight. Weak ridging overhead on Sunday will bring a mainly dry day with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s.
Ridging at all levels will depart to our east today. A mid/upper level trough currently over the north central CONUS will move east southeast, supporting a surface cold front which will approach our local area from the northwest tonight, and enter on Sunday. The right entrance region of an upper level jet will coincide with the front and approaching trough, lending support for precip. The highest POP is late tonight in our northern counties, and on Sunday elsewhere. We begin the period with upper level troughing stretched across much of the eastern third of the CONUS, while ridging dominates out west. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is continuing to push across the area, bringing continued rain to East Kentucky.
1031 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure continues to gradually slide southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.
Latest surface analysis had an elongated trough across the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. Light winds and a moist boundary layer accompanying the trough has resulted in areas of fog, mainly over the western counties so far tonight.
505 AM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A flat upper ridge will develop across the northern Rockies through the holiday weekend.
721 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Dry cool weather will continue today as high pressure continues to gradually slide southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.
627 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery indicates the back edge of the low stratus has reached areas roughly from near Redwood Falls to St. Cloud, but the high clouds layered over it makes it difficult to be precise. With northwest flow increasing early this morning, the back edge of the low ceilings will make steady progress east.
Convection is not anticipated with high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere in control. /issued 327 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure centered over Louisiana will remain the dominant force over the BRO CWFA during the period. Limited cloud cover, in addition to the presence of the mid-level ridge, will ensure well above normal temperatures for this time of year.
525 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, before shower chances return tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Dry weather should continue today as high pressure moves east of the area. Warm advection ahead of the next approaching trough should maintain areas of mid/high level cloud cover streaming across the region. An associated sfc cold front is then progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage.
Upper level ridging will limit convection today although isolated storms this morning will become a bit more scattered this afternoon during max heating before dissipating around sunset.
734 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, before shower chances return tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Dry weather should continue today as high pressure moves east of the area. Warm advection ahead of the next approaching trough should maintain areas of mid/high level cloud cover streaming across the region. An associated sfc cold front is then progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage.
Light rain/drizzle is moving through the region this morning as an upper level trough swings through providing enough lift for continued precipitation development. 5C/km over northeastern Minnesota due to the cold core trough moving across the region. Similar to today, a cold core trough aloft along with daytime heating which will provide enough instability that isolated showers and thunderstorms can develop.
Upper level ridging situated over southern Lousiana was providing a NW flow across the greater Tennessee Valley. Otherwise quiet weather prevailed, with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to around 70 with light winds. Upper ridging across the coastal Deep South should weaken tonight, as a trough axis extending southward from the western Hudson Bay to the northern High Plains moves to the SE. A reamplification of eastern CONUS troughing and the upper ridge rebuilding over the western states, will bring an increase in clouds across the region tonight.
1026 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, before shower chances return tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Warm advection ahead of the next approaching trough will increase mid and high level cloud cover, but still support seasonably warm high temperature. An associated sfc cold front is then progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage.
There will be some instability over the higher terrain south of I-70 and across the Palmer Divide. In addition, the low level flow will become more southerly with a theta-e axis developing.
A cold front will approach Nrn AR late this afternoon with VCSH introduced at KHRO and KBPK. Mid/high clouds will continue to stream into the state from the N thanks to upper level high pressure centered over the state. SWrly winds combined with compressional warming ahead of an approaching cold front should aid it temperatures climbing into the mid 90s, possibly upper 90s in places, across a large portion of AR. Tonight, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage over Nrn AR as the cold front nears. On Sunday, PoPs will increase over Cntrl, then Srn AR later in the day with the advancement of the surface cold front.
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Ridging at all levels will depart to our east today. A mid/upper level trough currently over the north central CONUS will move east southeast, supporting a surface cold front which will approach our local area from the northwest tonight, and enter on Sunday. The right entrance region of an upper level jet will coincide with the front and approaching trough, lending support for precip. The highest POP is late tonight in our northern counties, and on Sunday elsewhere. We begin the period with upper level troughing stretched across much of the eastern third of the CONUS, while ridging dominates out west. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is continuing to push across the area, bringing continued rain to East Kentucky.
734 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure to the north will bring another sunny and comfortable day today.
A weak cold front passage will bring breezy winds late Saturday and Sunday. Brief ridging will result in clear skies for part of the day ahead of a frontal passage. Precipitation will be confined to the Crest and just east of spilling over the highest elevations.
The upper high continues its slow track to the southeast over the lower MS River Valley, and will provide the mid state with another dry day. A Midwest trough will move eastward to our north, and may bring some chances for showers and thunderstorms to far northern zones in the afternoon. But as that trough moves east this evening, another will follow in its wake, and help push a cold front through the region during the day Sunday. The chance for higher rain will line up with the slightly higher chances for strong storms in the south Sunday afternoon, but will all depend on the speed of the cold front moving through the area.
Forecast Discussion: 500 mb high pressure ridge is forecast to begin building over the area today and into Sunday morning and then begin to flatten Sunday afternoon as an approaching weather disturbance and cold from comes in from our west. As the weather system and cold front approach from the west winds are forecast to become breezy Sunday afternoon from the west at 15 to 20 mph.
340 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A warm front will bring showers and more cloud cover for Sunday.
A slow moving cold front will progress into the region later today, resulting in an E/NE wind shift at CNM and HOB by late afternoon, and possibly INK and MAF by this evening, but until then, expect S/SE winds to continue at all terminals. (Today through Sunday afternoon) Today is forecasted to be the warmest day of the week, because of compressional heating ahead of a "cold" front and upper level ridging. A trough will roll across the high plains dropping a "cold" front through the Panhandle this morning. The higher terrain of West Texas and portions of Southeast New Mexico could also see additional thunderstorm development from orographic lifting and daytime heating.
As upper-ridge is forced south with an approaching trough from the northwest, showers and embedded thunderstorms will become widespread across much of the region. Upper-trough to linger across the ArkLaTex through Sunday night maintaining scattered to widespread rain chances mainly south of Interstate 30.
Temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in the east to the lower 90s in the west, but this slightly drier air should limit heat indices as power conditions continue to improve across the southern parts of the forecast area. Although the upper- level ridge will be centered almost directly over our forecast area today, some of the short-term guidance indicate a little spoke of moisture extending north from the Gulf into southeast MS today could support a few showers during the daytime. Otherwise expect a dry day across the area, with temps a little warmer than yesterday.
234 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Good rain/storm chances, including a risk for locally excessive rainfall, and cooler temperatures are the themes in the short term. A cold front, lingering low-level boundaries, plenty of moisture, a weakness aloft and strong daytime heating will all work together to provide good storm chances this afternoon and evening. However, a secondary surge to the cold front is currently moving into the southern Texas Panhandle and it will make its way through the CWA through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Regardless, plenty of cloud cover (maybe even a little AM fog) will secure a cooler day Sunday after a mild night tonight.
A weak cold front passage will bring locally breezy winds late Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation will be confined to the Crest and just east of spilling over the highest elevations.
Mid/high clouds will continue to stream into the state from the N thanks to upper level high pressure centered over the state. SWrly winds combined with compressional warming ahead of an approaching cold front should aid it temperatures climbing into the mid 90s, possibly upper 90s in places, across a large portion of AR. Tonight, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage over Nrn AR as the cold front nears. On Sunday, PoPs will increase over Cntrl, then Srn AR later in the day with the advancement of the surface cold front.
Warming conditions expected with high pressure building over the Desert Southwest.
As a cold front slowly sinks southward across the Quad State, rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast this evening through the night. With high moisture levels in place, overnight lows will be warmer than recent nights, in the upper 60s to around 70. We will still be dealing with lingering convection on Sunday, as the cold front will be situated across the middle to southern parts of the CWA by 12Z. This area of rain will slowly shift southeast with time during the day as high pressure builds in.
318 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The unsettled pattern continues through the weekend as a deep- layered trough of low pressure lingers around the region. Synoptically, things will begin to gradually change going in the lower levels with high pressure building westward across the Florida Peninsula setting up a very light southeasterly flow. Weak upper level ridging will be over our region but a weakness will develop in response to weak troughing across the Mississippi River Valley. The weak ridge aloft will eventually move under the aforementioned trough transitioning our upper level flow to a somewhat more active southwesterly flow. With some weak ridging and overall light flow, temperatures will remain warm outside of convection, but still right around climo for early September.
An upper level high pressure system is centered generally over the central west coast.
A short wave trough centered over southwest Montana will dive southeast today and tonight. There will be some instability over the higher terrain south of I-70 and across the Palmer Divide. In addition, the low level flow will become more southerly with a theta-e axis developing.
1133 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. A warm front will bring showers and a chance for a thunderstorm on Sunday.
304 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 (Issued 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Clouds will clear out this evening into tonight from northwest to southeast as a trough of low pressure departs. A weak trough and associated cold front will drop through on Sunday. Temps should be a few degrees below normal Sun night as clouds clear out and a cooler/drier airmass moves into the area.
Temperatures have climbed in the 80s for many (a little cooler on the Plateau) with partly cloudy skies.
1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery indicates the back edge of the low stratus has reached areas roughly from near Redwood Falls to St. Cloud, but the high clouds layered over it makes it difficult to be precise. With northwest flow increasing early this morning, the back edge of the low ceilings will make steady progress east.
244 PM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Main feature of interest on WV imagery this aftn is a potent vort max digging from the nrn Rockies onto the High Plains across MT/WY at this hour.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the northern half of Louisiana and into western Mississippi this morning.
Cyclonic flow aloft around based of upper trough has supported diurnal shower and isolated thunderstorm development.
1225 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather until rain chance returns tonight and Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Eroding high pressure will maintain dry weather into the evening, but a mid and upper cloud increase can be expected via warm advection ahead of an approaching trough. The associated sfc cold front is progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage.
Elongated low pressure stretches from Central Canada thru the Western Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains this afternoon. and literally nothing is happening upstream along and ahead of the cold front now making its way thru Wisconsin.
Big story over the next 48 hours will be the strengthening Great Basin ridge that promises to bring a week of dry and much warmer conditions.
214 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A cold front approaches late tonight, and then crosses on Sunday. High pressure returns on Labor Day. A stronger cold front crosses mid week. High pressure late week. Broad longwave trof will gradually make inroads into the region by the end of the weekend, marked by mid level PVA and a trailing low level baroclinic zone. Showers and storms will be possible Sunday night as the area remains in the warm sector of a passing low pressure system. A cold front will be loosing its punch while reaching the OH River early Sunday night pushing most of the shower activity east.
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Visible satellite shows a decent cloud line developing over the Lower Keys. A weak ridge remains across the area, producing light southwest to west winds. The upper trough and associated stationary surface boundary currently draped across Central Florida will continue to weaken this afternoon.
337 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The area will remain under mid level cyclonic flow into Sunday before the building ridge to the west takes full charge control. The only chance for rain comes later on Labor Day as the ridge is flattened with the passing on a trough through southern Canada.
315 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 A cold front is currently pushing across south central MO late this afternoon. An upper level trough is also moving across the region. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower 80s with less humidity. The upper level trough that is currently moving across the region will move into the eastern U. An upper level ridge will then build over the eastern U.
High pressure aloft, centered over the Desert Southwest, will strengthen over Oregon today. The inverted surface thermal trough will also build east of the Cascades. A relatively tight cross-Cascade gradient will allow cooler marine air to seep through the Columbia River Gorge where winds will increase in the late afternoon.
Today, the first day of the Labor Day Weekend, features dry and sunny conditions under northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Winds will generally be light therefore, though westerly gusts could reach or exceed 20 mph during the second half of the afternoon near the ND/SD border as the high pressure center shifts east.
Inverted trough over the coastal waters will flatten later this afternoon, as high pressure ridge builds just to the south. With a fairly dry airmass still in place, temperatures will be cooler than normal again, with lows away from the coast in the 60s. The high pressure ridge will slowly slide across forecast area, then to the southeast during the day Sunday.
The showers will exit the area with the cold front, currently stretched from about Hannibal, MO to Springfield, MO, in the next hour or so.
As mentioned, tomorrow will start out "cooler" and dry, but the pattern begins to change tomorrow afternoon as an upper low digs near the Great Lakes region and an associated long wave trough swings through the Mid-West.
The upper trough axis associated with the southern Canadian low was moving through central Kansas with northerly 850 mb winds on KTWX, KEAX, and KICT radars.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight and Sunday morning as a weak cold front in the Big Country slowly pushes south into Haskell and Throckmorton counties toward midnight, along I-20 towards daybreak, and from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba early Sunday afternoon.
High pressure anchored over the Carolinas is governing the weather across the CWFA this morning, with light E/SE flow in place. A slow- moving cold front will approach the area to the NW through the day, but any cloud cover/convection associated with this feature should hold off until this time tomorrow. Upper ridging across the coastal Deep South should weaken tonight, as a trough axis extending southward from the western Hudson Bay to the northern High Plains moves to the SE. A reamplification of eastern CONUS troughing and the upper ridge rebuilding over the western states, will bring an increase in clouds across the region tonight.
255 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend then slide into the Atlantic as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
1021 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Scattered showers with some embedded thunder will push across southern and central Illinois today ahead of an incoming cold front.
1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Scattered showers with some embedded thunder will push across southern and central Illinois today ahead of an incoming cold front.
On Sunday expect sunshine and warmer temperatures across the area.
Rain showers are expected this evening and through early part of tonight, due to the combination of warm air advection in the low- levels and an incoming trough aloft.
Forcing for ascent, both along the lower tropospheric boundary and aloft, is negligible at best.