Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
617 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Upper low brings a few mountain showers and storms each afternoon through Monday. Upper low continues to rotate over the area today, with diurnal showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and east. Upper low will shift east a bit later today and tonight, with upper heights building across the area from the west. There, a ripple crossing in the mid/upper level northwest flow prior to the ridge building in may allow elevated heat source convection in the humid, modestly unstable air.
This should garner a good scattering of convection, but warmth aloft in proximity to mid/upper level ridge will do more to hinder convective potential this afternoon. The pattern taking shape in the near term is one of building mid/upper level heights as the overall ridge amplifies. As this occurs today, we will still see some s/w feature move southward on the periphery of the ridge. Additionally, the low level temps will be on the warm side with around 20C at 850mb.
249 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Currently, Nebraska is located just SE of a closed low centered over the Montana/ND border. Some lee troughing dips SE through to W Kansas. A warm front has passed, but soon a dry line and subsequent cold front are expected to move through.
Highs this afternoon will top out in the lower to middle 90's, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 70s.
1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Upper-level ridging is currently present over the Middle Mississippi Valley with an area of high pressure settling in over the Upper Midwest at the surface.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 70 94 71 / 10 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 69 93 71 / 10 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 66 92 68 / 0 10 0 10 0.
Models in agreement that the mid/upper level ridge over the ArkLaTex will continue to build in the short term. Meanwhile, at the surface, the flow around high pressure centered over southeast OK and northern TN will keep high dewpoints, in the mid/upper 70s, pooled up over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. As temperatures continue to trend warmer and dewpoints stay as such, heat indices above 110 appear likely in these areas.
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a TUTT sliding west into the Bay of Campeche, an upper low lumbering southwest near Bermuda, and a long wave trough axis along the Eastern Seaboard. Mean layer analyses from CIMSS place a broad and fractured ridge axis across Florida, with the core anticyclone centered to the southeast of Bermuda. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
A slow warming trend will continue through the week as high pressure tries to build in from the east.
1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in dry conditions.
237 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Afternoon Update: Timing of the low pressure system exiting the region was the biggest focus area for the afternoon today, as the departure has sped up some from previous model and forecast runs. A stacked low pressure system is spinning through central and eastern Montana this morning, and is expected to lift away through northeast Montana later this afternoon and evening. A brief small-scale ridge of high pressure will bring a break in the weather tonight through Monday morning. Monday afternoon through through late Monday night will see another low pressure system sliding along the international border bringing scattered shower and thunderstorm again to portions of NE Montana.
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Isolated afternoon showers and storms, mainly over the higher terrain east of Pittsburgh, will be possible again this afternoon and on Monday.
/Issued 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021/ /This Afternoon through Monday/ Mid and upper level ridging will remain firmly in control of North Texas weather into the first half of the week with afternoon high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and continued south winds around 10 mph. Otherwise, drier near surface air can be expected on Monday with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, so an extension of the advisory is not expected at this time. Any convective activity will be well removed from our area around the periphery of the ridge.
Unlike most summer days, peak precip coverage should occur in early afternoon as the trough axis moves across the area, with decreasing coverage afterward. Most of the showers/storms will come to an end this evening as the trough exits to the south and much drier air aloft moves in from the north.
With strong upper-level ridging overhead, most convection is suppressed due to dry air and subsidence. Rain chances will still be minimal at 15% or less due to high pressure still overhead.
SW flow and a lee side trough has reestablished itself along the front range. Could see some convection try to get going across NW KS on Tue evening, but as this convection moves east, it will run into warmer mid level temperatures, which will squash the convection as it moves into central KS. Ketcham The mid/upper ridge axis is progged to translate slowly eastward through the end of the week as a mean trough approaches from the west. A lee trough will strengthen some this afternoon/evening while remaining in place through Monday.
238 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A weak upper trough will move across the Carolinas through tonight. Then a ridge will build over the area on Monday and remain in place through much of the week. Otherwise, later tonight toward daybreak, with dwpts in the lower 70s and light winds, look for patchy fog to develop, esp where it has rained, and also across our S and SE zones where the highest dwpts will be found. As the upper trough axis shifts to our east early in the day, look for rising heights during the daytime. As the ridge builds to our west, north mid-level winds will advect the drier air currently seen on water vapor over the Ohio Valley toward and into our region. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
The high near surface moisture content and limited gradient will again support light fog and/or low cloud development early Monday morning. Mid level ridging and broad enhanced subsidence will be sustained across Se Mi today as Henri affects New England. Meanwhile, high pressure expanding across Upper Mi will drive a slow moving back door cold front into Se Mi from the north today. Expansion of the subtropical ridge into the Ohio Valley and srn Great Lakes Mon into mid week and a more S-SW low level flow into Se Mi (with 850mb temps of +18 to +22C) will result in hot and humid conditions Tues and Wed, possibly into late week. A cold front is progressing through Lower Michigan this morning.
Then in the extended there are plenty of off and on chances for more showers and thunderstorms and warmer than average temps continue. This will push a weak cold front through the area that will then stall around the state line later tonight. The remainder of the forecast is characterized by southwest flow aloft, broad upper level high pressure to our south, and periodic small waves pushing through that bring off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms.
An upper trough will reside over the Pacific Northwest over the next several days with southwest flow aloft prevailing. Much of the smoke will remain aloft, although significant increases of near-surface smoke are possible in the higher terrain and near the Nevada border.
140 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Synoptic weather pattern across the region will remain largely unchanged over the next 24 hours save a slight veering of the mid level flow as high pressure maintains its position over eastern Texas. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will help to further dry the lower layers with a cap keeping thunderstorm chances well below mentionable probabilities.
perhaps a bit warmer in our east. Next deep low over southwest Canada will push east across the northern Rockies and drive a cold front into our CWA by around 6 pm. With mixed winds and RHs in the mid- upper teens (and a cold frontal passage in the evening), Monday is a day to monitor with regard to fire weather.
A subjective surface analysis reveals a notable trough moving through the Dakotas, which turns into a cold front down into northwest NE. Meanwhile, an area or low pressure across northeast CO was also apparent. This solution seems the most plausible, which is somewhat verified by the Highres-FV3, although the latter is generally about 3 hours quicker, which is probably too soon. And the WRFARW and Nam Nest suggest stronger convection may develop along the advancing trough in the Dakotas, and will build southward into northeast NE this evening well, which also seems at least somewhat plausible.
This front will lift north as a warm front through the rest of the area tonight into Monday. The mid and upper level ridge will begin to creep into the area on Monday with rising heights. Otherwise most of the area will be hot and dry with temperatures warming up into the low to middle 90s.
Mid to upper level ridging in place will keep us mostly dry through the short term. Temperatures won't change much from what we experience today with highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast to around 100 out west.
148 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A weak trough of low pressure will approach the area today and then dissipate. High pressure will follow and prevail for the early part of the week resulting in hot and humid conditions. Mid level ridge top begin building into the region Monday. A mid level high will be centered over the central plains states Monday night with a ridge axis oriented toward the northeastern United States. At the same time, the long wave trough will be situated over the west coast with short wave energy ejecting over the north side of the high into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
114 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A trough that impacted the area last night has pushed into the northern Plains. A mainly dry west/southwest flow will continue tonight through Monday night with a warming trend Monday as a trough pulls across southwest Canada. A weak cold front, associated with the trough north of the region, is expected to push into northern Wyoming late Monday night. As a result, the weather will be drier and warmer with just isolated afternoon and evening convection.
Cooler temperatures this weekend under a robust marine layer providing a chance for patchy drizzle along the coastline. The cloudy start and persistent upper level trough locked in overhead will lead to seasonably cool temperatures today. Toward the end of the work week the upper level trough will weaken as high pressure builds over the region. Light southerly to SW flow at the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Mid-level ridging will build over the central and southern Plains for the first half of the work week, resulting in warmer and drier weather for the Tennessee Valley--but not much change in humidity. The upper high itself will stay to the west, so highs should easily reach the lower 90s.
Heating of the airmass combined with low level convergence, albeit weak, plus some upper energy moving across the central piedmont of VA has already led to a few showers popping from near the Blue Ridge east over the VA piedmont. High pressure works in from the west/northwest Monday, and some warming aloft should limit storm development, but a couple of models hint at isolated pop up storms in the afternoon, especially north of U. Lows tonight stay on warmer side, with lower to mid 60s west to upper 60s east. Sunshine expected more on Monday though the NAM seems to bring more clouds toward WV, but since high pressure aloft building in, not seeing this.
Latest surface analysis shows low pressure near Watford City. Latest CAMS continue to suggest convection developing around 20 UTC over the north central and then quickly developing southward along the Highway 83 corridor and pushing east into the JRV in the 21-23 UTC timeframe and exiting the JRV completely by around 01 UTC. Latest radar analysis shows convection starting to develop along the Highway 83 corridor, which is actually about on time or a hair earlier than CAMS indicated. Cool tonight with lows into the lower 40s or maybe even the upper 30s in the northwest, to the lower 50s southeast.
With lower lcls in the slightly cooler air along with good 0-1km winds, a tornado will be possible. On Monday, the winds will turn southeast and increase through the day as the next short wave trough comes in from the west. Good waa in advance of this trough will bring back chances of showers and storms to the region Monday night.
148 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Stacked but narrow ridging continues to stretch from the W Atlantic over the C FL Peninsula and into the C Gulf of Mexico into early week.
On Monday, an upper level ridge will be centered across the Arklatex region. Guidance is indicating some weak energy migrating around the periphery of this ridge across Missouri.
1159 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A slow-moving, cut off upper level low will be located over southern and eastern PA and the Virginias through the remainder of this weekend. This weather feature will combine with the western edge of abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Henri to bring the threat of localized heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley and Western Poconos.
232 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine -Scattered showers through this evening -Very warm and humid pattern for another week -Convective threat highest Tue ngt/Wed, otherwise low --Scattered showers through this evening-- ML Capes near 1500 J/KG southeast of GRR and sfc convergence associated with dissipating/slow moving sfc cold front will support a continuation of scattered showers through this evening.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A broad subtropical ridge centered across the ArkLaTex region will maintain seasonable late August temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the short term portion of the forecast. Leaned toward the warmer guidance for the afternoon high temperatures on Monday given the overall dry subsident synoptic pattern. Expect the high risk of rips to end after midnight as the overall wave energy continues to fall below critical levels.
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 (Issued 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will begin to exit to our east this evening and allow surface winds to return to southeasterly. During the day tomorrow, a weak warm front will lift north into the area bringing higher dewpoints and warmer temperatures.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday/ Mid and upper level ridging will remain firmly in control of North Texas weather into the first half of the week with afternoon high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and continued south winds around 10 mph. Otherwise, drier near surface air can be expected on Monday with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, so an extension of the advisory is not expected at this time. Any convective activity will be well removed from our area around the periphery of the ridge.
Temps Monday will be mainly in the lower 90s with 80s in the NE GA mountains.
251 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Hot and somewhat muggy weather is expected in the Ohio Valley to start the upcoming work week, as an upper ridge axis extends from the ArkLaTex region northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. Weak sfc ridging will keep winds light and not offer any focus for convection, so no mention of precip through the first part of the week. Temps Monday afternoon will reach the lower/mid 90s, but as the boundary-layer continues to dry, expect dewpoints to mix down into the upper 60s, keeping the heat index values out of triple digits. The dominate weather feature for the first half of the week will be a strong upper level ridge across the central US centered over ArkLaTex and the Central Mississippi River Valley.
An upper level trough will travel from the Northern Rockies this morning and to the Northern Plains this afternoon. Once the trough axis passes through, subsident drier air will move into the area. A strong ridge over the Southern Plains will slide slowly eastward as the week progress.
Minor updates to spread the low storm chances farther north this afternoon, otherwise forecast in great shape. A longwave trough remained stationed over the western states with high pressure centered over Texas this morning.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 70 91 70 94 / 50 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 91 69 93 / 50 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 88 68 91 69 92 / 50 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 89 66 92 / 10 10 10 0 10.
Upper level ridging is going to unsteadily build during the week over the northern Great Basin. An upper level trough will passfrom west to east across southern Canada on Mon afternoon, pushing up the wind and bringing extremely dry air into the region. The cool air brought in by the Mon trough offsets any warming with the clearer skies, and so temperatures level off.
347 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 High pressure will extend into the area through mid week. Summary: Confidence continues to increase that a mid-level ridge will persist over the Ohio Valley into this upcoming weekend.
/issued 140 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021/ Synoptic weather pattern across the region will remain largely unchanged over the next 24 hours save a slight veering of the mid level flow as high pressure maintains its position over eastern Texas. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will help to further dry the lower layers with a cap keeping thunderstorm chances well below mentionable probabilities.
Monday will be the hottest day of the period, ahead of the next cold front, with elevated fire weather conditions likely over a good portion of the area.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in dry conditions.
102 PM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A deep marine layer and seasonably cool temperatures will continue through Monday, but expanding high pressure will bring a gradual but steady climb in temperatures through mid week, along with a progressively shallower marine layer each night.
231 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A slow-moving, cut off upper level low is located just south of the area this afternoon while Tropical Storm Henri moves inland over southern New England.
1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 The H5 trough continues to sweep across the state this morning, dragging along a weak cold front. As the trough sweep northeast this morning, showery activity will quickly wane, with most activity complete by noon. Jet streak along the bottom of the trough will help mix some gusty winds down to the sfc for the wind corridor from RKS to CPR through this afternoon. Monday will see another breezy day for much of the region, as southwesterly flow sets up ahead of a trailing trough along the US/Canada border. Models are hinting at some weak instability trying to bubble up some showers along the I-25 corridor down to eastern Sweetwater County during peak heating hours, but model soundings show very dry profile in the lowest 10000 ft, along with some capping.
/NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ An upper ridge will remain anchored immediately overhead heading into this week, leading to seasonably hot and humid weather and essentially no rain chances. All convective activity will remain displaced from the CWA on the outer periphery of the upper ridge.
516 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 A trough that impacted the area last night has pushed into the northern Plains. A mainly dry west/southwest flow will continue tonight through Monday night with a warming trend Monday as a trough pulls across southwest Canada. A weak cold front, associated with the trough north of the region, is expected to push into northern Wyoming late Monday night. As a result, the weather will be drier and warmer with just isolated afternoon and evening convection.
Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s with muggy conditions. Models in agreement that the mid/upper level ridge over the ArkLaTex will continue to build in the short term. Meanwhile, at the surface, the flow around high pressure centered over southeast OK and northern TN will keep high dewpoints, in the mid/upper 70s, pooled up over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. As temperatures continue to trend warmer and dewpoints stay as such, heat indices above 110 appear likely in these areas.
944 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 High pressure will extend into the area through mid week. Summary: Confidence continues to increase that a mid-level ridge will persist over the Ohio Valley into this upcoming weekend.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 71 94 71 / 10 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 66 92 68 / 0 10 0 10 0.
618 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Currently, Nebraska is located just SE of a closed low centered over the Montana/ND border. Some lee troughing dips SE through to W Kansas. A warm front has passed, but soon a dry line and subsequent cold front are expected to move through.
Morning lows will fall into the upper 60s in NE AL, and into the lower 70s for NW AL. Mid-level ridging will build over the central and southern Plains for the first half of the work week, resulting in warmer and drier weather for the Tennessee Valley--but not much change in humidity. The upper high itself will stay to the west, so highs should easily reach the lower 90s.
1009 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 The region will remain positioned between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through early week. High pressure will then dominate the region for the remainder of the week.
1034 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Currently - A lower tropospheric ridge extends westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in gentle east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - Through the overnight and tomorrow the lower level ridge will gradually strengthen as troughing along the Atlantic coast lifts out. Overnight lows will be in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. A ridge across Florida will gradually strengthen overnight and tomorrow.
A low grade monsoon pattern from Tucson eastward will continue through much of this week with the best chances remaining over the higher elevations.
Temperatures were warm once again this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-107.
SW flow and a lee side trough has reestablished itself along the front range. Could see some convection try to get going across NW KS on Tue evening, but as this convection moves east, it will run into warmer mid level temperatures, which will squash the convection as it moves into central KS. Ketcham The mid/upper ridge axis is progged to translate slowly eastward through the end of the week as a mean trough approaches from the west.
923 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and then lifts to the northeast Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. An upper level ridge gradually builds across the are through midweek. The upper trough begins to fill and lift to the northeast Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.
822 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 An upper level trough lingers over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and then lifts to the northeast Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the northwest. An upper level ridge gradually builds across the are through midweek. The upper trough begins to fill and lift to the northeast Monday as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.