Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Freezing overnight temperatures will occur over the Kern County desert with a freeze possible in parts of the San Joaquin Valley as well, especially later this week. Forecast models then turn the flow aloft to the north Thursday and Thursday night as a sharp ridge pushes into Washington and Oregon.
601 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will produce some moderately gusty west winds today. Clouds rotating around the associated upper low will affect at least the northern cwfa. High pressure will begin to move in as the low pressure over the Great Lakes continues to shift east. Differences develop on how quickly the upper low will lift ene into the southern U.
Low level ridge axis extends from Atlantic across the central peninsula.
Showers will begin to spread Southeast across the region later this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the Northwest. A cold front will move Southeast across the region Tonight into early Thursday, which will bring a band of showers across area TAF sites, with an isolated thunderstorm possible.
/ISSUED 324 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Dry and cool air will filter into the region today behind a departing upper trough and cold front. Nearly all areas should remain above freezing but a few rural locations may approach 32 degrees by sunrise Thursday. The weather pattern will remain active Thursday through the weekend as an upper trough deepens in the west. Initially the developing system will result in a return of low level moisture and warmer temperatures Thursday/Thursday night followed by increasing rain chances on the weekend.
With light winds and clear skies, good radiational cooling will likely yield some sub-freezing temperatures in low lying areas.
/Issued 408 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Deep upper low continues to spin across the upper Midwest this morning as 130kt jet max rounds the base of upper trough. Upper level storm system which will affect our area this weekend has moved on shore into the Pacific NW with surface cold front east of us in the lower MS valley. This will raise fire weather concerns especially in areas which received the lower amounts of rain. Thursday will be warmer.
Model guidance continues to support increasing chances for light precip today into tonight as the slow-moving upper low/cold pool aloft move overhead. The stacked low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes Thursday morning will finally make more eastward progress away from the region late this week.
A cold front has passed through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this morning. Breezy north winds will mix out the lower ceilings around 14z. /issued 432 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A cold front has nearly passed through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this morning. Return flow sets up on Thursday bringing warmer temperatures and increasing surface moisture.
512 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Previously mentioned cold front will be east of the state shortly after sunrise. Today Through Thursday Night 09z subjective surface analysis indicated the cold front extended from Blythville, to Hot Springs, to El Dorado.
644 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 An approaching cold front will cross the area this evening. Near record high temperatures today will lower to near normal for Thursday behind the cold front.
/issued 337 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move slowly eastward across the forecast area this morning ahead of a cold front. Expect a diminishing threat for severe weather after sunrise as the low level jet eases and the storms enter a more stable airmass. The recent rain and improved soil moisture may limit most significant cooling, but would not be surprised a good portion of the area at or a few degrees above the freezing mark by early Thursday morning. As the upper trough moves off to the north and east, broad ridging and/or near zonal flow will move into the region as well as high pressure at the surface.
Winds are roughly parallel to the boundary with height this morning causing the line of sh/ts along the cold front to slow. The highest of these should be farther east.
507 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Cooler/drier air filtering into SE TX as the cold front finally moves offshore this morning. With the upper trof lagging a bit, clouds will be a bit slower to clear the area.
Given high temperatures today are expected to be above freezing, snowfall accumulations should be minimal. With cooler temperatures during the overnight hours snowfall is expected to accumulate, generally in the 0. The highest amounts will be across Vilas County, By Thursday the aforementioned low will be tracking to the east, with waning POPs as the day wears on and the lifting mechanism subsides.
Currently, stacked low pressure now over southeastern Minnesota. While low pressure remains quasi-stationary through today, the secondary TROWAL starts to wane and begins moving out of the area wrapping back southeast towards the low. For tonight, dry air aloft advecting into northern and eastern parts of North Dakota along with a continued saturated boundary layer and subfreezing temperature profile looks to eliminate ice nuclei introduction into the super-cooled water layer. Add in some low level omega/lift and we have the necessary ingredients for freezing drizzle.
Drier and cooler air will move in behind the front this afternoon and evening.
This could allow temperatures to go up a few degrees there into the lower 60s, before falling later this afternoon as cold air advection moves into the northern Alabama. A large area of high pressure will begin to build across the area with dry conditions and cool temps during this timeframe.
638 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Mild today with showers ahead of an approaching cold front, with much colder temperatures into the weekend. Saturation of the low-levels has been slow, as a layer of dry air evident on last night's sounding has delayed the onset of steadier rain. Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada.
Primary forecast challenge for today and tonight continues to be precipitation type with a mix of very light rain, drizzle or freezing drizzle and snow the most likely scenario for this morning. The weakening deformation zone remains west of the forecast area and is weakening rather than pulling eastward as the low moves into the GTLKS region. Current wet bulbs are warm enough that most precipitation should fall as rain as snow falls through the warmer near surface layer and melts. transitioning to a very light freezing drizzle or snow as surface temperatures cool a degree or two by evening. Overnight expect mainly freezing drizzle by midnight unless the near surface layer dries out enough to end precipitation.
631 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Cloud trends the issue today in advance of a cold front. Window for low stratus /15-18z/ to emerge in advance of a cold front through early afternoon. WV and IR imagery reveal shear max of interest positioned along the eastern flank of the broad trough centered over the central US. Cold front currently hung up along the Lake Michigan shoreline will release east as large scale support translates over Lower Michigan this aftn. Winds will then increase from the southwest this evening as cooler air begins to funnel over the lakes.
/Issued 424 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Satellite and water vapor imagery continues to show large scale trough centered Minnesota. This trough extends from the Rockies to the Mississippi and Ohio Valley.
415 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 No change in the overall synoptic weather pattern over the last 24 hours w/ a large and vigorous low pressure system remaining nearly stationary over central Minnesota.
Strong CAA continues over the gulf waters this morning as high pressure builds into the region from W TX. With clear skies temperatures will recover into the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
649 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 For the 30/12Z TAFs, mid level cloud deck around 10Kft continues to blanket all terminal sites this morning but gradual clearing will occur later today from west to east as cooler and drier air mass settles overhead. Gusty northwest winds in the wake of the recent cold front will be around 10-15 kts with higher gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. Speeds will drop off quickly after sunset this evening as high pressure builds in at the surface, allowing winds to become light and variable to near calm under clear skies.
Stacked low pressure system over the upper Midwest continues to bring light precipitation to the far eastern counties of Montana this morning. Snow, blowing snow and a little freezing drizzle are still possible early this morning across that region. Overrunning snow and perhaps a little drizzle or freezing drizzle will spread out of central Montana on Thursday.
Clouds were gradually thinning from west to east as the upper low pressure trough moves through the region. The cooler and drier air is filtering into AR, with current upper 30s to lower 40s over the north, 40s central to around 50 in the south. The cooler airmass will also keep highs today cooler than normal with the upper 40s to 50s expected. / Issued 512 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Previously mentioned cold front will be east of the state shortly after sunrise. Today Through Thursday Night 09z subjective surface analysis indicated the cold front extended from Blythville, to Hot Springs, to El Dorado.
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will track into eastern Canada tonight. An associated cold front night will push through the Mid Atlantic late tonight.
With an effective warm front sitting across our southeastern counties, it's keeping this area fairly active.
1004 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A developing area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine tonight into Thursday. In its wake, brief s/wv ridging wl occur acrs the CWA with little in the way of pcpn expected most of the day. 00z GFS is warmer than 00z NAM with temps aloft as was the case for yda's event. Most locations to the north of a Bridgewater-Greenville line look to rmn all snow with heavy snow expected late tonight into Thur mrng. Low pressure will continue to move to the northeast into the Maritimes Thursday Night. A trough of low pressure will remain over the region and keep skies mostly cloudy, especially in the north.
A decent short wave trough continues to exit the southern plains to the east this morning. In tandem with northwest flow on the back side of the larger parent trough, a noticable pressure gradient continues to develop this morning into northern Oklahoma. For today, cold air advection from breezy northwest winds will allow for a slightly cooler, but seasonable day. Expect many locations to drop to at least freezing, with a hard freeze likely across northern Oklahoma.
High pressure continues over southern Florida this morning with a frontal boundary draped over the Heart of Dixie. A mid-level trough will dig in over the eastern third of the nation tonight and force the boundary south and eastward towards the peninsula of Florida. The high will begin to weaken, and slide to the east, ahead of a cold front associated with a low that will move over the Great Lakes region over the next several days. There also some indications a pre-frontal trough may take shape and bring convective activity to South Florida well ahead of the front. When with PWATs climbing to almost 2 inches, and the trough, it creates the possibility for some thunderstorms, especially over the southeast Florida metro areas, and the SOuth Florida waters.
Concur with the GFS deterministic which predicts a somewhat progressive pattern with an upper low over the Central CONUS lifting NE Today/Tonight across the Midwest/NE CONUS while another system enters the West CONUS Thursday. The cold front will continue to move offshore this morning with SCA conditions in response (cooler air given that 546dm 1000-500mb thickness enters North TX combined with warm SST values per SPoRT SST composite. ) Expect breezy conditions over portions of the Coastal Bend Today with conditions improving from west to east over the CWA/MSA this afternoon/evening as the surface anticyclone approaches the Coast from the NW.
/Today through Tonight/ The upper level low pressure over southern Minnesota will finally start moving east today as a vigorous short wave drops southeast on the backside of the system this morning then wraps around and helps eject the system east.
Moisture plume is being shunted eastward a bit more quickly than previously advertised, but upper trofiness and SW mid-level flow may cause a few starts and stops in that process. Will hang on to at least small POPs until around midday, when the low-level flow becomes westerly enough to dry out. Clouds will be slower to clear out as the upper trof axis doesn't swing through until later in the afternoon.
519 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Moisture plume is being shunted eastward a bit more quickly than previously advertised, but upper trofiness and SW mid-level flow may cause a few starts and stops in that process. Will hang on to at least small POPs until around midday, when the low-level flow becomes westerly enough to dry out. Clouds will be slower to clear out as the upper trof axis doesn't swing through until later in the afternoon.
Dry layer aloft moving into the north this afternoon and tonight should bring a chance for freezing drizzle as precip chances taper off. Primary forecast challenge for today and tonight continues to be precipitation type with a mix of very light rain, drizzle or freezing drizzle and snow the most likely scenario for this morning. The weakening deformation zone remains west of the forecast area and is weakening rather than pulling eastward as the low moves into the GTLKS region. Current wet bulbs are warm enough that most precipitation should fall as rain as snow falls through the warmer near surface layer and melts. transitioning to a very light freezing drizzle or snow as surface temperatures cool a degree or two by evening. Overnight expect mainly freezing drizzle by midnight unless the near surface layer dries out enough to end precipitation.
356 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 Northwest flow prevails across the region as a large upper low continues to spin over the upper midwest. A dry pattern is expected region-wide during the next 24h as a weak short wave ridge translates over the fcst area. Max temps today are expected to be in the 30s and 40s across the lower elevations and tens and 20s across most of the valleys and mtns.
408 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Deep upper low continues to spin across the upper Midwest this morning as 130kt jet max rounds the base of upper trough. Upper level storm system which will affect our area this weekend has moved on shore into the Pacific NW with surface cold front east of us in the lower MS valley. This will raise fire weather concerns especially in areas which received the lower amounts of rain. Thursday will be warmer.
1045 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today, then pushes across the Mid Atlantic region tonight into Thursday morning.
Mid/upper level low pressure continues to spin over the upper Midwest as it slowly progresses eastward. This wave will track over portions of NE and IA as it will ultimately reinforce another shot of cooler air. The cooler temperatures and wrap around moisture has supported an expansive area of low to mid cloud cover, which is spreading southeastward this morning. Therefore highs today will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s. The low pressure system has kept the pressure gradient from relaxing over the plains so expect another windy day today as surface mixing begins. This along with the cooler air mass will support lows in the 20s with the coldest temperatures in central KS.
A cold northerly flow over the area today will give way to weak high pressure this afternoon.
The low over the Upper Plains that has been responsible for the snow will continue to slowly drift to the east. A couple of inches are possible in the higher terrain, but should not have any impacts. Details are not certain at this time but with most of these showers coming in northwest flow aloft, the best chance for accumulations will be over the higher terrain of the Bighorns, Bearooths, Crazy, and Snowy mountains.
630 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A developing area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine tonight into Thursday. Low pressure now sitting at the western end of Nova Scotia with wrap-arnd pcpn still occurring acrs extrm ern zones. In its wake, brief s/wv ridging wl occur acrs the CWA with little in the way of pcpn expected most of the day. 00z GFS is warmer than 00z NAM with temps aloft as was the case for yda's event. Most locations to the north of a Bridgewater-Greenville line look to rmn all snow with heavy snow expected late tonight into Thur mrng. Low pressure will continue to move to the northeast into the Maritimes Thursday Night. A trough of low pressure will remain over the region and keep skies mostly cloudy, especially in the north.
Otherwise clouds will be slow to burn off today with aftn highs in the lower 60s. A large area of high pressure will begin to build across the area with dry conditions and cool temps during this timeframe.
However as the upper trough deepens there should be a southward drift later this morning and through the day. The cold front looks like it will be in the Atlanta vicinity around 18z.
High temperatures today will be in the 40s to around 50, trending cooler for the rest of the week.
The precip is due to an upper level impulse rotating around a large stacked low over the north central CONUS, and an associated surface cold front moving in from the west. This moisture and convection will leave today, but models show the potential for additional shower development as the upper level impulse and actual cold front progress through the area this afternoon. This will exit to the east during the late afternoon and early evening, and drier and much cooler air will begin to make its way in.
922 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Latest obs show temps most locations have climbed above freezing, and the Freeze Warning has been alowed to expire. /issued 326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on Thursday.
Primary concern will be gusty winds at KPVW and KLBB this afternoon as high pressure scoots by to our south and lee troughing strengthens across eastern NM.
Late this morning the cold front was sweeping through the region. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 70s southeast. The recent rain and improved soil moisture may limit most significant cooling, but would not be surprised a good portion of the area at or a few degrees above the freezing mark by early Thursday morning. As the upper trough moves off to the north and east, broad ridging and/or near zonal flow will move into the region as well as high pressure at the surface.
319 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 A very weak short wave ridge will move through the area today though if you live near the northern mountains, you might not realize it. Cross sections still show the lower atmosphere saturated over the Park and Gore ranges and with westerly flow expected, clouds and light snow showers will continue. By this evening, a weak short wave trough will drop down from the northwest. After midnight, upper level support starts digging south and the trough will follow causing snow to increase south of I-70.
654 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure tracks slowly in the Great Lakes states through tonight. pushing its associated cold front across the Mid Atlantic region.
Wrap around moisture will remain with us for the next few days despite low pressure slowly filling and lifting to the northeast. Continued to mention Snow or Freezing Rain for portions of the Coteau tonight, however again intensity will be too low and it appears ground temperatures too warm for it to be a significant problem, though will have to monitor.
/issued 922 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Latest obs show temps most locations have climbed above freezing, and the Freeze Warning has been alowed to expire. /issued 326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on Thursday.
Maliawco Stacked low pressure system over the upper Midwest continues to bring light precipitation to the far eastern counties of Montana this morning. Snow, blowing snow and a little freezing drizzle are still possible early this morning across that region. Overrunning snow and perhaps a little drizzle or freezing drizzle will spread out of central Montana on Thursday.
A cold front will bring some scattered clouds to northern Wisconsin as well.
As another cold front approaches, from the north, West Central Texas will have one more day of above normal temperatures. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 80s; that's around 10 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Another Cold Front and Possible Rain. As another cold front pushes across West Central Texas tonight, showers and thunderstorms may develop along and near that boundary. Cooler with Possible Lingering Morning Showers South. As high pressure and cooler air move into Texas, look for much cooler highs on Thursday, mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
Ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate area weather.
Shallow moisture behind these systems and the low sun angle at this time of year allowed low clouds to persist over much of the area this morning. Meanwhile, a separate trof over Manitoba will shift over northern Ontario on Wed as well. Nam shows a 500 mb trough over the upper Great lakes 12z Thu that digs into the ern U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the southern plains 12z Sat with a deep 500 mb trough in the ern U. the 500 mb ridge builds into the northern plains 12z Mon and this ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes on Tue. There may be period of mid clouds and a few sprinkles Wednesday as a weak cold front moves through.
1201 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016 Cold front that slid through the region this morning has pushed to near the I-44 corridor where it will remain quasi-stationary overnight. The upper wave will pass through the area on Thursday bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air to the region. Broad ridging building into the area will bring a slow moderation in temperatures for the end of the week with highs returning into the 70s over the weekend.
However, with the still warm soil temperatures warmer than the dewpoint most of the fog is lifting to a low stratus deck in the bottom of the valleys. This will lift by late morning giving the region a warm break in the action ahead of the next system that moves into the coast with a warm front bringing precip into the coast waters but should be limited to northern portions as the warm front washes over the top of an upper level ridge.
This trough will amplify/dig southeast late today and tonight forcing a cold front southward through the area. The highest probabilities late this afternoon and evening will be focused near and south of a line from near Holdenville to Ardmore, with lower probabilities extending possibly as far north OKC/Norman, but confidence in convection over the metro is low. As the advancing cold front will bring cooler more stable air mass southward probably undercutting convection early tonight. Consolidation and expansion of convection during the early evening should be coincident with an overall decrease in intensity and waning severe potential, particularly once convection is undercut by the cold front. The post frontal cooler air mass will be near or slightly below normal for mid October.
Front will usher in a cooler and drier airmass with temperatures bearing more of a resemblance to mid-late October.