Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through Wednesday) A cold front currently stretches from about Valdosta to Apalachicola, slowly moving to the east. The seabreeze is making some inland progress along the Big Bend coast ahead of the cold front, and scattered storms are forming along the seabreeze late this afternoon. Drier air behind the front and clearing skies will lead to cooler overnight lows for most of the area. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s outside of the coastal and southeast Big Bend. (Wednesday night through Thursday night) The main trough slides off to the east of our area on Thursday and we start seeing a gradual increase in temperatures and moisture.
No precipitation chances are currently forecast through at least the weekend due to strong high pressure remaining near the local area. Sfc hi pres remains INVOF FA Thu-Fri as ridge aloft builds E from the MS River Valley. pattern looks dismal as models agree on a dome of high pressure building into the lower Ohio River Valley and Mississippi River Valley. This high pressure will extend over into our CWA and be dominant enough to keep any weather systems out of the region.
Upper and surface ridging brings a sunny sky and near seasonable temperatures today. Discussion: Upper ridge axis shifts eastward today with upper ridging building in from the west. Northerly flow and subsidence along the eastern edge of the ridge will place us within a region of upper subsidence. Tonight, a clear sky remains with calm winds as high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather pattern this week.
The high will continue to bring dry weather this week and into the weekend. Have issued a dense fog advisory for a north-south strip of counties from west central Ohio down through the lower Whitewater River Valley. Pesky low clouds will slowly burn off this morning as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley today. A large mid level ridge to build over the region at the end of the week into the weekend.
We failed to overachieve yesterday due to smoke and suspect that will also be the case today, though with a much warmer airmass moving in for today (850mb temperatures a standard deviation above climo) am even less confident on undercutting guidance.
58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) We enjoyed a cool start this morning thanks to west-northwesterly flow as ridging takes center stage over the Central Plains. Humidity values will drop into the 30 to 40 percent range this afternoon as highs reach the lower to mid 80s with abundant sunshine, so it's definitely a good day to enjoy the outdoors! We become a few degrees warmer tomorrow as the ridge amplifies and builds towards the east over the Midwest, but conditions will remain very Fall- like with low humidity and rain chances at 0%.
Slightly cooler than normal overnight during the mid week. Broken mainly mid and upper level clouds remain over the Low Country with mostly clear skies for the Midlands through the Upstate. Afternoon dewpoints ranged from the low 50s in the central and western Midlands to the upper 60s in the southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area and slightly warmer near area lakes. Persistent troughing in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is expected to hang around through Thursday, as the strong trough impacting our weather today departs northeastward.
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
Thursday through the weekend expect dry conditions with warmer temperatures. The axis of the trough which has been persistent across the SW is currently pulling through Arizona, with upward lift promoting widespread convective activity across the CWA. As this trough continues to lift toward the NE, we expect storms to continue well into the evening, with a continued threat of large hail and flooding with training storms. The passage of the trough overnight and drier westerly flow aloft will bring decreasing storm chances on Wednesday, with precipitation largely limited to those areas north and east of the Mogollon Rim.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Latest wv imagery shows a plume of mid lvl moisture approaching far W TX assocd with a trailing shrtwv trough. The broad, negatively tilted trough currently located over the Intermountain West is expected to advance into the Central Plains today. As it does so, a secondary disturbance will round the base of said trough and lift into W TX by this afternoon. Rain chances are expected to diminish area-wide on Thursday as subsidence builds in behind the departing shrtwv trough.
(Today through Thursday) This AM at the surface, ridging is situated over much of ERN Conus. Ridging will remain in control through the short term as the center shifts from KY/TN to a broad area from W Quebec into NY. On Thursday, we should see the winds shift to more ERLY as the center of the ridge shifts. In the upper levels, NW flow will weaken today as the center of the upper ridge slides EWD from KS/OK into MS and expands. This will be in response to the upper low over NY/VT that will push NEWD into far E Canada through Thu.
Broad low pressure remains nearly stationary along the Oregon/Washington coast through Wednesday before moving inland through the day.
530 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
(Today through Thursday) Beautiful weather conditions are on tap for the short term while the upper level trough shifts its axis off to the northeast over New England/Southeastern Canada. As high pressure at the surface builds in, temperatures are expected to trend warmer through the forecast period. Today, high temperatures in the low to upper 80s while tomorrow high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s. In the absence of moisture in the low/mid levels coupled with the high pressure building in from the west, mostly clear skies should prevail.
537 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure, and subsequent dry weather, persists into next work week. The recent arrival of and persisting high pressure will spell dry weather for today and tonight. An upper level trough will finish passing over the area today and primarily just bring some clouds for the late morning and afternoon, but we remain mostly sunny. With high pressure persisting and such dry air in place, went with the lower side of guidance for lows tonight, once again bringing many into the 50s and a few into the 40s. Zero chance of rain this period as high pressure surface and aloft keep a dome of subsidence over us this period.
355 AM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 An upper level trough will move across the area today. As a result should see an increase in shower and tstm activity over the higher terrain by midday with some of this activity spreading across the plains this aftn. As far as highs, readings will be in the 80s over the plains, except over the far northeast corner where highs may reach the lower 90s. As a result, may see some additional shower activity across portions of the higher terrain. HiRes guidance showing scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon in the mountains and valleys then becoming more isolated into the lower elevations. Storms should move quickly off the higher terrain under unidirectional flow until early evening.
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today through Thursday) This AM at the surface, ridging is situated over much of ERN Conus. Ridging will remain in control through the short term as the center shifts from KY/TN to a broad area from W Quebec into NY. On Thursday, we should see the winds shift to more ERLY as the center of the ridge shifts. In the upper levels, NW flow will weaken today as the center of the upper ridge slides EWD from KS/OK into MS and expands. This will be in response to the upper low over NY/VT that will push NEWD into far E Canada through Thu.
552 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend.
Visibility is currently less than one mile in many locations, including the Highway 93 corridor from the Missoula/Bitterroot valley south through Lemhi County in Idaho, the Highway 12 corridor from Lolo Pass through the Clearwater Mountains, and most peripheral locations adjacent to these locations. The low pressure system wrapping moisture around and into the Northern Rockies will continue to have a positive influence on the region, both in the form of rainfall chances occurring today, as well as helping smoke to lessen.
803 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. The combination of a building ridge over the Great Lakes and mostly sunny sky will help temperatures climb near the climatological average this afternoon. Passage of a cold front over Lake Erie will return some stratocu tonight.
605 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Today and tonight: Heights will rise across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a deep closed upper low centered over far northern Ohio quickly lifts northeast. In its wake, upper ridging over the Southern Plains will also shift east.
618 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The latest surface analysis is showing that high pressure was centered over southern Illinois which was bringing light winds to the area. Given the relatively warm river temperatures and expected lows in the low-mid 50s, should see some patchy fog again this morning in the river valleys before it burns off by mid morning. The HREF is showing that this high will move off to the east which will cause the winds to pick up out of the south to southeast later today into tomorrow. In the upper levels, the ridge over the Plains will slowly build into the Midwest by tomorrow which will keep us dry. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s which will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday as the low levels continue to warm.
617 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today through Thursday) Today, an upper level ridge stays over eastern parts of the Southern Plains with ridging extending to the southwest over northern Mexico into the Pacific west of the Baja California Spur. Thursday, an upper level trough moving out across the Plains creates a weakness in the upper level pattern splitting the ridge with centers near the lower Mississippi Valley and over northern Mexico. The highest chances are near the Coastal Plains, although cannot rule out a few showers reaching the I-35 corridor prior to dissipation by sunset with loss of heating.
Then, skies cleared shortly after dark with the upper low pulling away from the area.
604 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing a weak upper level ridge across the Southern and Central High Plains. Also, a trough extended from Ohio to the Lower Mississippi Valley, well to our east.
Numerous Showers and Storms with Locally Heavy Rainfall Expected The weak front associated with a low pressure system over eastern Canada has sagged into northern Florida this morning and is expected to continue to meander southward today before stalling near to or just north of the local area. 500mb temperatures also look to be a bit cooler today, in the -8 to -7C range.
607 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today) Upper ridge over the area today with weak sfc ridging persisting across eastern half of the CONUS.
A large trough of low pressure very slowly lifting toward the northeast will produce scattered to numerous thunderstorms with additional rounds of heavy rain possible through early this evening.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to persist across the region through late week with breezy onshore winds at times. An upper level trough continues to bring cooler than mid September normal daytime high temperatures on west to northwest winds. There's better global model agreement regarding the late weekend path and evolution of the 500 mb low pressure system arriving from Alaska. September and October can bring strong high pressure and offshore wind flow, thus having the opposite in the forecast is welcomed.
635 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today) Quiet/near seasonal wx conditions/temps prevail across the central TN Valley this early Wed morning, as high pressure out of the Plains states gradually settles into the region. Otherwise, an upper trough pattern exiting to the east will give way to a ridge axis out of the middle/southern Plains moving into much of the western/central Gulf states. High pressure at the sfc will also drift eastward across the region today, translating into mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the lower/mid 80s.
552 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The stretch of dry weather will continue the rest of the week as a strong high pressure area builds into the region. Meanwhile, temperatures will exhibit a hearty warming trend through this weekend as daily temperatures surge into the mid to upper 80s beneath a strong, late-summer heat ridge. Sunny and dry conditions are expected today and tonight as a high pressure area dominates the weather across the region. Afternoon highs will be several degrees warmer than yesterday, reaching the lower to middle 80s. Ridging will continue to build into the area end of the week and into the weekend.
Things are quiet across the CWA this morning as our area sits between the upper trough axis now just to our east, and upper ridging over much of the central CONUS. Today marks the beginning of the transition to the dominant upper ridge pattern that will hold in place through the end of the week. As a result of the ridge and the increased low level thicknesses, temps will be around 5 to 7 degrees warmer today than yesterday, which will put peak values in the upper 70s and low 80s. Therefore, didn't quite go with the highest guidance that you might normally consider under a full heating setup.
Areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will extend inland across much of the valleys and occasionally onto the lower coastal mountain slopes.
In the low to mid levels a trough is digging across the Eastern Seaboard.
With dewpoints largely in the lower to middle 60s, temperatures have gotten pretty nice if you've grown tired of warm summer nights, falling just below 70 degrees. Though we should have a bit of a cooler start this morning, the drier air in place will also heat more effectively today, so highs are still in the lower half of the 90s inland, and in the upper 80s at the coast. As high pressure to our east/northeast becomes more prominent later today and tonight, onshore flow will become more established, beginning to bring back the summery, Gulf airmass to the area.
Another system will sweep across the region this weekend, bringing another shot of cooler air and a better chance of rain showers.
3 AM radar and satellite imagery shows lingering rain showers across Southwest Montana and the High Plains region.
Recent sounding observations and current model guidance support wind gusts up to 15 kts (higher winds up to 20 kts possible) due to mixing in the lower levels, especially once temperatures reach 78 to 80 degrees between 11 AM and noon. By the late afternoon, temperatures are forecasted to reach the upper 80s to the low 90s. /CRJ/ Today and tonight: Heights will rise across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a deep closed upper low centered over far northern Ohio quickly lifts northeast. In its wake, upper ridging over the Southern Plains will also shift east.
The high will continue to bring dry weather this week and into the weekend. Have issued a dense fog advisory for a north-south strip of counties from west central Ohio down through the lower Whitewater River Valley. Pesky low clouds will slowly burn off around midday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. A large mid level ridge to build over the region at the end of the week into the weekend.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning as an amplifying upper-level ridge builds across the region. Increased thickness values and temps aloft observed with the building ridge will support high temperatures about 2-3 degrees higher than yesterday -- generally in the low to mid 80s (with a few locations in northwest Alabama reaching the upper 80s).
The resulting warm advection regime over the forecast area has been in place longest across our western counties, where temperatures remained in the lower 70s early this morning. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tonight after another day of southeast winds, but most locations should experience lows in the 60s by daybreak Thursday.
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A moisture starved cold front could touch off a few widely separated showers this afternoon. A cold front sagging south from the other side of Lake Ontario will make its way through the region this afternoon.
456 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Latest wv imagery shows a plume of mid lvl moisture approaching far W TX assocd with a trailing shrtwv trough. The broad, negatively tilted trough currently located over the Intermountain West is expected to advance into the Central Plains today. As it does so, a secondary disturbance will round the base of said trough and lift into W TX by this afternoon. Rain chances are expected to diminish area-wide on Thursday as subsidence builds in behind the departing shrtwv trough.
553 AM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Low pressure moving across southeast Montana today, with isolated showers stretching to the northwest. Remainder of the week will feature the west coast trough digging eastward.
The high will continue to bring dry weather this week and into the weekend. Have adjusted high temperatures to be slightly cooler in especially central and south central Ohio and NE Kentucky with the greater potential for both stratus and afternoon cumulus. A large mid level ridge to build over the region at the end of the week into the weekend.
An upper trof over the easternmost states moves off into the Atlantic followed by an upper ridge building into the eastern states. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s at the immediate coast.
Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 60s for much of the CWA tonight and into tomorrow morning with spots in the higher elevations seeing the 50s.
The high will continue to bring dry weather this week and into the weekend. A large mid level ridge to build over the region at the end of the week into the weekend.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Low pressure moving across southeast Montana today, with isolated showers stretching to the northwest. Remainder of the week will feature the west coast trough digging eastward.
afternoon high temperatures close to yesterdays highs to a degree or so warmer are expected for the CWA.
117 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure arrives today to provide dry weather through the remainder of this week. An upper level trough will move east of the area by this evening. Clouds generated by this trough and afternoon heating will fade around sunset. With high pressure over the region, expect another night of light winds and clear skies. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer compare to the last couple of mornings with readings from the upper 40s along ridgetops to lower 50s in the valleys. Areas east of the Blue Ridge should see lows in the mid 50s.
A coastal trough of low pressure and increasing moisture will help drive an increasing chance of rainfall into Thursday night across Deep South Texas. High temperatures this afternoon should still reach the low to mid 90s for most locations, with increased cloud cover and better convective coverage likely knocking down highs a degree or two cooler Thursday than today.
Water vapor analysis indicates a rather large extratropical cyclone over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Strong moisture advection associated with this surface cyclone will push into the northern plains over the next several hours.
Expect cooler conditions Thursday with extensive cloud cover and rain showers around generally 50s and 60s mountains and 60s to low 70s valleys.
Showers extending along a line from Desert View to Tuba City to Shonto will continue to push eastward ahead of an upper level trough. An area of showers and thunderstorms remains over western Arizona early this morning as a trough lifts through the southwest. As the trough continues to push northeastward, this activity is expected to move into the northern portions of Arizona through the remainder of the overnight and into the morning hours. With moisture and forcing from the departing trough still in place, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. However, a few isolated showers over the higher terrain in central Arizona (Mogollon Rim/White Mountains) will remain a possibility.
346 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temps today through the upcoming weekend. In fact, models indicate a mid-level positively tilted upper trof will swing off the Carolina Coasts later tonight and offshore during Thu. A weak/modest NE wind surge will occur later tonight thru much of Thu due to the passage of this upper trof. This will result in a tightened sfc pg due to a 1025+ mb high ridging across the FA from SE Canada.
145 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. Building high pressure will keep the region dry and quiet throughout the evening. The passage of a cold front over Lake Erie will return stratocu tonight.
Deep-layer ridging is building over the Midwest providing stability and dry northerly flow across the Deep South. Height rises and abundant sunshine will result in slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon and again tomorrow, but most areas will stay below 90 degrees. No complaints here as afternoon dewpoints will mix down into the lower 60s to upper 50s. The ridge will center over the Ohio Valley tomorrow as it encompasses most of the Eastern CONUS.
248 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A mid/upper level ridge will continue to move east of the region tonight while southwesterly flow moves into the High Plains.
238 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Upper level ridging centered across the Mississippi River Valley region will shift eastward into the eastern CONUS tonight into Thursday. Southwest flow aloft has developed across the Plains due to general long wave troughing across the western CONUS. Still should see about 1500 J/KG of SFC based CAPE develop near the inverted trough.
153 PM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 19z surface analysis had weak low over northeast WY with frontal boundary into southern MN and lee trough from central MT to eastern CO. Cooler air builds into behind low tonight with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises, creating gusty winds in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills. Thursday, southwest flow aloft continues per upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. Cooler, near normal temperatures foreseen.
(This evening through Thursday night) High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep things quiet in the short term.
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A mid and upper-level trough will move slowly east across NC tonight.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to persist across the region through late week with breezy onshore winds at times. An upper level trough continues to bring cooler than mid September normal daytime high temperatures on west to northwest winds. There's better global model agreement regarding the late weekend path and evolution of the 500 mb low pressure system arriving from Alaska. September and October can bring strong high pressure and offshore wind flow, thus having the opposite in the forecast is welcomed. KSFO Bridge Approach.
A low pressure system in northeastern Washington is sending a spoke of energy into north-central Idaho and western Montana, resulting in showers and isolated thunderstorms.