Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 One more day of dangerous heat is expected today before we get a respite thanks to a weak cold front. Today, will be the warmest day of the week thanks to continued upper level ridging over much of the southern CONUS as well as modest southwest flow at the surface. Factoring in dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and, heat index values will rise into the 102 to 107 range. This will enhance thunderstorm development along the cold front as in pushes south through Iowa. The low level jet will weaken Thursday morning allowing thunderstorms to diminish with the cold front still near the Iowa/Missouri border.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over the higher terrain this afternoon with outflows pushing to the west southwest. Steering flow and shear increase Thursday as an inverted trof, currently east of the Big Bend continues to push west.
304 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Cold front has been slowly making progress through the area this afternoon, with surface based convection developing along it just north of the Platte river around 18z.
A semi-permanent upper low will build the heights over Montana Thursday while surface return flow will help to heat up things over the area.
1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 High pressure will continue to build over the forecast area today. No major changes needed to temperatures for today, still looking at a cooler day compared to recent conditions. Noticeably cooler weather can be attributed to an upper level trough and associated surface front. The amplification of high pressure aloft over the CONUS southwest will bring very warm air into the state.
A cold front ran from the low into southwest Iowa and southern Nebraska. Dew points ahead of the cold front were in the 70s. Thursday, the organized thunderstorm complex will slowly decay during the morning as the cold front pushes through the area.
Current temp trends have rebounded into the upper 70s/lower 80s for many locations this Wed morning, from their earlier lows mainly in the lower 70s. Dew pts have also climbed into the lower 70s in response to Gulf moisture continuing to spread nwd into the region. Afternoon temps are still xpcted to climb into the lower 90s for most areas, with associated heat indices increasing well into the upper 90s/around 100F for a few hrs.
135 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Upper level analysis shows nearly zonal flow over the northern plains, with slight ridging over the northwestern CONUS. The upper ridge will begin rebuilding over the western CONUS Thursday, persisting into the weekend.
232 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2017 Near normal temperatures are expected through the week as high pressure remains positioned over the Great Basin. Thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain and parts of the lower deserts of south-central and southwest Arizona each day. This is due to the clockwise circulation of high pressure overhead.
Models suggesting cooler temperatures today with weak cold air advection and morning cloud cover. The rest of the forecast features a building ridge across the area, with gradual warming 850-700mb temperatures.
227 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The upper level ridge over the region will keep high pressure over the Ozarks this evening and into the early part of the day Thursday. This will keep the area on the warm side as temperatures this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s with heat index values from 99 to 106. Overnight lows will remain warm, only dropping into the lower to middle 70s. A cold front will be moving south and begin to makes its slow progress through the Ozarks Thursday evening. The upper ridge/high will begin to shift westward as this occurs which will give the Ozarks a respite to the heat for a few days.
With the upper high just off the Carolinas coast, the trend of increasing moisture across the TN Valley will persist into Thursday night.
126 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A very warm day is in store for the region as a warm frontal boundary lifts north today and precipitation chances diminish.
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will become stationary south of the region tonight. Low pressure will move northeast along this front Thursday.
543 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The upper level ridge over the region will keep high pressure over the Ozarks this evening and into the early part of the day Thursday. This will keep the area on the warm side as temperatures this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s with heat index values from 99 to 106. Overnight lows will remain warm, only dropping into the lower to middle 70s. A cold front will be moving south and begin to makes its slow progress through the Ozarks Thursday evening. The upper ridge/high will begin to shift westward as this occurs which will give the Ozarks a respite to the heat for a few days.
1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is right over the Ozarks Region this morning.
Have lowered high temps for today with clouds persisting all day and the cooler air coming in on north winds.
308 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Models are kind of all over the place this afternoon so will trend towards a solution with the stalled out frontal boundary over the northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska as it drifts to the north tonight and an upper level wave rounds the ridge to the west. Boundary begins to lift north after 6z and upper closed low over KLBF around 12z with precipitation moving east intop south central Nebraska.
Warming trend underway as upper ridge rebuilds nwwd from the Four Corners area.
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Seasonably hot weather is expected to continue the next few days as an elongated mid-level ridge remains in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front across Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
A weak trough will bring slightly cooler and more seasonable temperatures for the interior portions of Northwest California while coastal communities remain influenced by the marine layer. Above normal temperatures forecast to return for inland areas late in the week as high pressure builds aloft. With little change in upper level forcing expect this to persist for at least a few more days before being compressed a bit with some upper ridging. By the end of the week temperatures are forecast to warm as high pressure off to our east retrogrades back into the area.
308 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Cooler temperatures have set up over the region today in a cold air advection pattern. Winds will be fairly light with cooler temperatures still in place. These cooler temps will be felt more in eastern areas, where highs will only top out in the 70s. A warmer air mass over central SD will allow temps to climb into the 80s on Thursday. Upper level northwest flow will be over the area at the beginning of the period ahead of a building ridge over the Rockies.
High pressure continues over the Gulf while an inverted mid-level trough overhead shifts farther west into Mexico. Latest model NAM and GFS guidance shows deeper moisture in place across the region today, eliminating the wedge of drier air in the low to mid levels that had been present in prior runs.
340 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 (Tonight and tomorrow) An upper level high pressure ridge continues to sit over the center of the country. However, models do indicate that an upper level low pressure system over north central Mexico will continue to drift towards the northwest. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will drop into lower 70s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s.
Upstream ML CAPE values are 2K-4K J/KG over northeast IA and southeast MN ahead of the approaching low and associated cold front. Should be enough though given the high instability for a severe storm threat. Given the progressive nature of the front and expected average storm motion of around 30-40 mph, the threat for additional widespread flooding should be on the low end. Between a fair amount of cloudiness tomorrow and cooler temps aloft, should see highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): A mid-level inverted trough to the south will continue a slow westward movement into Mexico. Broad mid-level ridging will then reside over East Texas. Near normal temperatures will continue through the period under a mix of clouds and sun, and light to moderate southeast winds will continue with high pressure over the Gulf.
The high coverage of ongoing activity made it necessary to push pre-first period POPS up into the likely category for the southern half CWA, with scattered showers and a few storms to the north.
Otherwise, typical summer-like day, with precip coverage becoming more likely during the afternoon peak heating hours, and high temperatures should reach up into the low to mid 90s across SE TX.
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Subtropical high pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the period. Based on the lack of upper level support and a cap in the low/mid levels, storms are struggling to develop thus far. and a decoupled atmosphere, the potential for fog is there, we just need adequate moisture trapped in the low levels to see it realized. With less cloud and precipitation coverage tomorrow and slightly higher partial thicknesses, expect temperatures to be a bit warmer with highs in the low 90s across north GA to mid/upper 90s across our SE tier. Cooler temperatures across the higher terrain.
956 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Small adjustments were made to keep winds up a bit tonight and bring the lower clouds farther into southwestern Oklahoma for tonight.
1145 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Strong cold Canadian high pressure remains firmly in control of the wx across Northern Michigan late this evening. High pressure west of Hudson Bay is moving SE to just west of James Bay by 12z/Tue. This will force dry, cooler air into the forecast area. Large scale 5-wave long wave pattern remains intact today around the northern hemisphere with anchoring troughs off the Pacific coast and across eastern Canada/New England. Split but fairly progressive flow pattern noted through the lower 48 with an active southern stream producing active weather across the lower Mississippi Valley through the SE states. Weak troughing is moving into the northern plains. Canadian high pressure will essentially remain parked north of the Great Lakes through midweek before breaking down as we get into the latter half of the week.
Winds will continue to veer more NW overnight with cold front advancing through the region.
During the pre-dawn hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected to enter the northwest part of the CWA over the far western reaches of interior SE GA well ahead of an approaching cold front. Another round of showers and possibly strong to severe storms is expected on Tuesday along and ahead of a cold front, mainly between 16z and 21z, as the region gradually clears out between 21 and 24z. A strong cold front will cross Tuesday afternoon and evening, with showers and storms ahead of it.
Brisk nely winds will continue to bring cooler temps. Brisk nely winds will continue to bring cooler temps. Brisk nely sfc winds will continue tnt into Tue as low pressure moves across the Ohio River Valley.
1015 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Storms are long gone and now seeing the drier/cooler air making its way into SE TX this evening. At 2 PM, a cold front extended from low pressure over So Missouri to near Texarkana to near Rockport to Laredo.
730 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
529 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Broad trough over the region aloft will continue to shift east tonight. Some freezing drizzle will also be possible there as the mid levels dry and the low levels remain saturated for a bit with lingering low level lift. Dry weather will prevail Wed as upper level ridging commences. Western CONUS trough re-loading will occur toward the end of the week with local WAA and height rises. Deep western CONUS trough will eventually shift east this weekend, with precip chances increasing across the Northern Plains, possibly supporting a decent storm system if the trough ejects in large wave packets.
704 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Northeast winds will persist through the TAF period and beyond as high pressure holds nearly stationary to the north of the Great Lakes. A developing trough over the Upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday will support an increase in the northeast gradient.
1129 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Some patchy fog and low ceilings south and east of a cold front bisecting the area late this evening will give way to VFR category conditions across the forecast area during the early morning hours as the cold front advances to the southeast.
/Issued 312 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ Westerly winds at 15 to 25 mph with some gusts of 35 to 40 mph shifted to the northwest today as a cold front moved through the region. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures managed to rise in the low to mid 60s northwest to the mid to upper 70s southeast. /Issued 312 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ /Tuesday Onward/ In wake of Monday's cold front, noticeably cooler conditions will follow on Tuesday.
The latest mesoscale analysis shows a continued narrow corridor of shear/CAPE maximized across northeast Alabama ahead of a fast moving cold front. A breezy and chilly day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday as the upper low rotates through. As the thermal trough swings across late Tuesday/Tuesday night there may be enough lingering moisture to allow a brief and spotty changeover to snow.
Winds becmg nw with reinforcing cold front and increase to 15 to 20 kts across most of area by 20/15z.
The lowest ceilings are now across northwest Arkansas, where IFR conditions have developed.
Weak upper low off the Oregon coast will track inland tonight and across our CWA Tuesday. The low will bring scattered rain and snow showers to our northern mountains, and isolated rain showers to southern areas Tuesday.
605 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Dry northeast surface flow from high pressure over Hudson's Bay Canada keeping dry weather in place across our region, and will continue to do so through tonight into Tuesday morning. Will then be watching a mid-level trough pushing southeast out of the Northern Plain tonight into Tuesday, but the combination of dry northeasterly surface flow and weakening wave likely to produce just an increase in high and mid-level cloud cover and very little if any precipitation.
1027 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
After highs today in the 50's and lower 60's, colder air will spread into the region tonight into Tuesday as winds turn more northerly with time as the low passes south of the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to dip below the freezing mark by Tuesday morning, which may result in a precipitation changing to a mix of rain/snow except far southeast (Lawrenceville area) toward sunrise. Forecast soundings do suggest that mid-level drying may limit ice nucleation over a portion of the mixed precip area, which could potentially support some patchy light freezing rain as surface temps hover around 32 F. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low-mid 40's across the forecast area.
WNW-NW winds gusting to around 20kts at 23z will be relaxing a little this evening then bump back up as reinforcing cold front in N TX arrives after midnight. At 2 PM, a cold front extended from low pressure over So Missouri to near Texarkana to near Rockport to Laredo.
The BR and to a lesser extent the low clouds begin to lift 12z-15Z although MVFR continues for much of the morning. Potent cold front approaches with SHRA/TSRA and FEW-SCT CB. A few lingering showers will be possible overnight, but in the mid-morning hours is when the bulk of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the area ahead of and with a potent low pressure system. The severe threat along with rain chances will be ending from north to south Tuesday evening as a short wave trough exits to the east into the Atlantic becoming negatively tilted as it does so with the attendant cold front moving to the south of the forecast area.
Brisk nely sfc winds will continue tnt into Tue as low pressure moves across the Ohio River Valley.
The large upper low that was responsible for the severe weather earlier continues to push east into southern Illinois this evening. Winds will continue to veer northwesterly later this evening with moisture wrapping back into the Mid South later this evening behind the upper low. Unseasonably cool temperatures will also filter south into the region with lows in the lower to middle 40s by sunrise Tuesday.
1056 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to the area tonight.
Again, highs will remain below normal with temperatures peaking in the low/mid 30s areawide.
753 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. Temperatures this week do not look very warm though and airmass over the region stays quite dry with dwpnts well below freezing so despite the dry weather does not look like we will melt much snow.
Weak short wave trough which resulted in showers and a few storms with just some showers in Levy that are winding down. Meanwhile a strong deep low pressure system is moving up the Ohio Valley. trailing a short wave trough with an associated cold front across the Gulf Coastal states and the adjacent Gulf waters. The S/W trough and front will be approaching the coast around or the northern areas during the morning and the southern areas in the afternoon. The BR and to a lesser extent the low clouds begin to lift 12z-15Z although MVFR continues for much of the morning. Potent cold front approaches with SHRA/TSRA and FEW-SCT CB.
Currently, surface winds have veered to the southwest across most of the area following the passage of a warm front. This event will hinge on evolution of the surface to 850mb wind fields in response to the approaching upper-level trough. Hi-res models appear to be getting a better handle on the mesoscale features and are slowly trending more aggressive with surface pressure troughing and backing of winds in the 23-03z time frame. Balloon launches are planned for 330 PM, 6 PM, and 730 PM to sample critical changes in the low-level wind environment. Trend with this set of TAFs will be in a bit more optimistic direction, as the higher coverage of convection thus far has remained well to the north of central Alabama terminals.
/issued 410 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ Cold front over northeast to southwest Louisiana will continue to push fairly quickly east through most of the forecast area the remainder of this afternoon and this evening and through the coastal waters overnight. Drier air has already filtered into the forecast area ahead of the cold front, and this has capped off and inhibited most of the convective development today. There is still a slight chance of a stray shower and possibly a thunderstorm over eastern areas through just before sunset in advance of the cold front, but most locations should remain dry.
Brisk nely winds will continue to bring cooler temps. Brisk nely sfc winds will continue tnt into Tue as low pressure moves across the Ohio River Valley.
1052 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Strong cold Canadian high pressure remains firmly in control of the wx across Northern Michigan late this evening. High pressure west of Hudson Bay is moving SE to just west of James Bay by 12z/Tue. This will force dry, cooler air into the forecast area. Large scale 5-wave long wave pattern remains intact today around the northern hemisphere with anchoring troughs off the Pacific coast and across eastern Canada/New England. Split but fairly progressive flow pattern noted through the lower 48 with an active southern stream producing active weather across the lower Mississippi Valley through the SE states. Weak troughing is moving into the northern plains. Canadian high pressure will essentially remain parked north of the Great Lakes through midweek before breaking down as we get into the latter half of the week.
1125 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The latest deterministic short term guidance indicates northwest flow developing behind the passing closed upper low. This is in response to a developing ridge over the western conus. Though at this point the lower levels seem too dry for any precipitation to hit the surface.
Cold front came through CLL at 04z and should be through GLS 08-09z. /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ Storms are long gone and now seeing the drier/cooler air making its way into SE TX this evening. At 2 PM, a cold front extended from low pressure over So Missouri to near Texarkana to near Rockport to Laredo.
/issued 956 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ Small adjustments were made to keep winds up a bit tonight and bring the lower clouds farther into southwestern Oklahoma for tonight.
1040 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Broad trough over the region aloft will continue to shift east tonight. Some freezing drizzle will also be possible there as the mid levels dry and the low levels remain saturated for a bit with lingering low level lift. Dry weather will prevail Wed as upper level ridging commences. Western CONUS trough re-loading will occur toward the end of the week with local WAA and height rises. Deep western CONUS trough will eventually shift east this weekend, with precip chances increasing across the Northern Plains, possibly supporting a decent storm system if the trough ejects in large wave packets.
1035 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Dry northeast surface flow from high pressure over Hudson's Bay Canada keeping dry weather in place across our region, and will continue to do so through tonight into Tuesday morning. Will then be watching a mid-level trough pushing southeast out of the Northern Plain tonight into Tuesday, but the combination of dry northeasterly surface flow and weakening wave likely to produce just an increase in high and mid-level cloud cover and very little if any precipitation.
648 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 127 PM CDT Breezy east-northeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period as low pressure tracks eastward well south of the area and high pressure remains dominate over Ontario tonight into Tuesday. This northeasterly flow will transport a colder airmass over the area for Tuesday resulting in cooler high temperatures area-wide. High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 40s well inland, but likely only in the mid to upper 30s closer to the lake under partly cloudy skies. Conditions will feel even cooler than these values, however, as winds continue to gust up to 25 to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler to near normal through the extended.
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening. This along with clear skies will allow temps to drop to below freezing for most areas on the caprock with temps averaging in the mid 30s across the Rolling Plains.
West winds ahead of a cold front, and north winds behind it over the Permian Basin, will generally stay below 15 mph sustained. RHs will rise as the cold front spreads to the higher terrain by daybreak Tuesday, but locations from the Guadalupe Mountains, to the Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley and Big Bend region will have poor recovery.
222 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Persistent western CONUS trough will finally shift east, splitting in the process, with the strongest impulse expected on it's southern periphery into the central/southern plains. Quiet weather will then prevail mid-week as another round of deep layer ridging commences, supporting dry weather and warmer temps. Western CONUS upper trough is in the process of ejecting into the central CONUS, with WAA to its NE over the region. Any precip that will develop will be in the form of liquid, which would be freezing rain where temps fall back to below 32. Light rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible with any precip that develops in this FGEN zone.