Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight lows will range from the lower 40s across the Hill Country to near 50 over the southwest counties of South Central Texas.
1007 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Area rain and snow will diminish today with an exiting low pressure system.
1031 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Sunny skies and downslope component to sfc winds will lead to even warmer conditions this afternoon. This is giving us clear skies this morning which has or will allow our temperatures to dip below freezing once again. The first part of this week will continue to see the 850mb thermal ridge expand across the region which will translate to temperatures continuing to warm through tomorrow. With the snowpack all but gone for most there should be little to no resistance for temperatures to increase under the aforementioned thermal ridge and southwesterly downslope flow and associated compressional warming.
A plume of warmer air aloft (H85 temps 5-10C) will advect eastward across the area ahead of the wave during the day Tuesday.
The region remains under northwest flow with an upper ridge west and a broad trough over eastern Canada/United States.
153 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Spring-like temperatures are ahead for the next couple of days as high pressure brings dry wx and a warming trend. Most areas had reached the lower 50s this afternoon, and the pattern looks favorable for temperatures to rise above our standard model blend through midweek.
Otherwise, low temperatures drop to the low to mid 30s overnight.
1139 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 This is for the 18Z TAFs on 02/22 High pressure will continue to build into the region this afternoon and tonight behind a departing cold front which moved through the area earlier this morning. High pressure overhead will provide clear skies and light winds to the region, with VFR conditions expected through the entire forecast period.
An area of light to moderate rain associated with a surface cold front continues to advance east late this morning. Rain will continue to spread across the area as a cold front moves through this morning. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 35 62 37 66 / 100 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 34 58 37 62 / 100 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 34 59 35 63 / 90 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 30 55 33 61 / 100 10 0 0 0.
Temperatures are a bit warmer than forecasted for this hour by a degree or two. /ISSUED 513 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ A cold front moved through the area overnight and left the area with VFR conditions and light northerly winds. A cold front is making its final push through the area early this morning as skies clear behind it.
Water vapor imagery places the upper lvl trough axis just east of the forecast area this afternoon while flow veers toward the northwest with increasing height rises. Winds have remained gusty this afternoon given a tight pressure gradient as high pressure nudges into the Tennessee Valley. Increasing heights aloft and high pressure at the surface brings much drier air to the region during the period with clear skies. Tuesday will be warmer as temperatures climb into the upper 50's to low 60's. A series of upper trough and jet streaks will move through through the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians.
1118 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Area rain and snow will diminish today with an exiting low pressure system.
Tranquil weather pattern is in place for the short term period, with upper level northwesterly flow over the central plains ahead of an upper level ridge out west. This combined with clear skies overnight will force most locations to dip below freezing by early Tuesday morning. This will allow a surface lee cyclone to deepen in eastern Colorado and turn surface winds to southwesterly. This pattern will reinforce the warming trend over southwest Kansas, bringing afternoon highs tomorrow into the low to mid 70s.
It is possible high temps may get a few degrees warmer than our current forecast, but that should not bring any complaints.
Readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon will be even warmer tomorrow, with readings near the 80 degree mark.
Meanwhile southern Iowa has climbed to the low 40s this afternoon.
Tuesday will be a cool and dry with lows in the low to mid 40s then warming to the upper 60s for the afternoon, along with clear skies.
1144 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Dry weather and plenty of sunshine is in store for today as high pressure moves across the southern Plains into the western Gulf Coast region. Therefore, have raised temperatures above the NBM/blended model guidance with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 50s area-wide.
Quiet weather conditions have taken hold as anticyclonic flow aloft has overspread the Southwest, and is resulting in much lighter winds and warmer temperatures. Observations from this afternoon are running about 2-4 degrees warmer than this point yesterday.
309 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 The SCT-BKN western extent of the stratus is moving over central KY this afternoon, generally along the 925-850 mb thermal trough axis. Breezy westerly low level flow will begin advecting in warmer air this afternoon and evening, and WAA continues overnight into Tuesday. The sfc pressure gradient does tighten overnight as well between low pressure to the north and high pressure over the Gulf Coast. Have lows in the low to mid 30s, but sheltered valleys could still dip into the 20s.
An area of light to moderate rain associated with a surface cold front continues to advance east late this morning. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 62 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 58 37 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 34 59 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 55 33 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 20.
Quiet and warmer under high pressure midweek before another cool down arrives. However, some light scattered showers lingering behind today's cold front are currently moving across the northern and western portions of the CWA. Tonight remains dry and mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the low 30s for the lowlands, and 20s for the high elevations. Precipitation in the high elevations should fall as snow, with rain elsewhere. During the day, surface level high pressure will begin building in from the southwest which will allow for dry conditions across the southern portion of the CWA. Precipitation will generally come to an end by Tuesday night as high pressure continues to build. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach 40s to low 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains.
/15/ The cold front has moved to the east of the area this morning and skies are beginning to clear out. Expect cooler temperatures today in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the south. While a stream of moisture can be seen lifting ahead of the trough on water vapor satellite imagery, meager forcing is managing to only squeeze out light precip rates with showers along the front moving across our forecast area this morning. Temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid-50s to mid- 60s this afternoon, with clearing skies as the trough axis moves east. Min temp forecast for tonight are on the low end of guidance, and put most locations at or around freezing.
The cold front has moved to the east of the area this morning and skies are beginning to clear out. Expect cooler temperatures today in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the south. While a stream of moisture can be seen lifting ahead of the trough on water vapor satellite imagery, meager forcing is managing to only squeeze out light precip rates with showers along the front moving across our forecast area this morning. Temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid-50s to mid- 60s this afternoon, with clearing skies as the trough axis moves east. Min temp forecast for tonight are on the low end of guidance, and put most locations at or around freezing.
Ridgetop winds 50+ knots will be common across Northern Rockies air space through 23/1200Z. The strong winds at the ridgetops will mostly maintain dry, downsloping winds within area valleys and limit precipitation. Later this evening, a powerful cold front will move across the region from the northwest, further intensifying surfaces and creating some intense bursts of snow down to valley elevations.
Cold front pushing through Galveston at 4 am and fog quickly ending and some light sprinkles or spotty showers along the boundary as it moves offshore and coverage decreases further.
A cold front will move through the area late Tuesday evening, but with no arctic air with the system, temperatures will only fall back down to near seasonable levels for the reminder of the week.
A strong cold front will move through tonight, ending the mild temperatures we will see today and sending us back down below normal. More widespread precipitation will arrive along a cold front this evening and overnight with moderate snow in the mountains.
Weaker surface flow and clear skies this evening will maximize radiational cooling which will result in low temperatures around freezing for much of the area. An associated lee cyclone will form by the late afternoon and will foster warm air advection into the area. Stronger southerly winds owing to a tightening surface pressure gradient and little remnant snowpack should allow for temperatures to reach into the lower 70s in central and north-central OK, and mid-upper 70s across western north-central TX.
At the surface, low pressure tracks eastward through southern Canada while high pressure shifts from the Southern Plains into the Deep South. High pressure then noses its way into the Tennesseee Valley by the end of the period. This will initiate a trend towards a bit warmer weather than we have gotten used to of late. With the increasingly strong sun this time of year, it might feel like an early peak at spring if it weren't for a 5 to 10 mph westerly gradient wind to help keep the feel cooler to the senses.
1015 AM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure persists and extends from the West Coast through the Four Corners, as a deep low pressure cell pushes towards the Great Lakes. Peak wind gusts along the higher peaks range from the low 80s. However, the high wind warnings might need to be extended eastward depending on how the later model runs shape up.
950 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 A weak cold front has started to push across the state from north to south this morning. Upper level analysis places trough through the midwest with ridge over the Pacific coast. Further south in warmer air a rain/snow mix is anticipated.
The trough will interact with a clipper system in ND and far northeast SD/west central MN by evening. Will need to monitor for any southerly trends of the higher band of QPF/snow Tuesday night.
313 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Cold front and accompanying light rain will exit the region this evening.
Winds should keep the atmosphere will mixed Tuesday Night and thus, stayed on the warmer side of guidance with the return of low clouds tickling our western and southern zones by sunrise Wed Morning.
Most of us should be dry and quiet through the short term period as we get some help from passing high pressure to the south. Temperatures are the main story for Tuesday, as westerly flow switches back to the south and WAA increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
A progressive WNW mid level flow pattern will prevail, with high pressure passing south of the region.
1134 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Despite a weak cold front that pushed through our region last night, the warmup is intense today and for that reason, had to raise temperatures several degrees for most all locations.
/Issued 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ Sunny skies and downslope component to sfc winds will lead to even warmer conditions this afternoon. This is giving us clear skies this morning which has or will allow our temperatures to dip below freezing once again. The first part of this week will continue to see the 850mb thermal ridge expand across the region which will translate to temperatures continuing to warm through tomorrow. With the snowpack all but gone for most there should be little to no resistance for temperatures to increase under the aforementioned thermal ridge and southwesterly downslope flow and associated compressional warming.
214 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Upper ridge building in from the west today bringing warm wx to the region.
Very benign and warm weather is ahead of us for the next few days as a high pressure settles in over our region. Patchy fog is possible in our southwestern counties early Tuesday morning as the high pressure begins to slide to our northeast allowing southeast winds to resume and low-level moisture primes the area for fog potential. For Tuesday, daytime highs should reach the lower-to-mid 70s across SE TX and overnight lows will cool to the lower 50s. In the upper levels a mostly zonal flow will persist for much of the work week with a flat ridge positioned across the Gulf.
The airmass driving the front is Pacific in nature, so temperatures will actually be warmer tomorrow than today. High pressure is expected to dominate for a majority of the first-half of the work week.
243 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Windy conditions are expected tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region.
A short period of snow is expected over Southwest MT tonight as a cold front moves through the region, with a few heavier snow showers possible.
North to north- northwest winds ~6-8 kts the next couple of hours will become nearly calm after sunset as high pressure settles over the region. Midweek, another cold front will move into the area, however it is expected to stall over us.
720 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through mid-week. Aside from a modest increase in cirrus Tue night, as the mid-upr ridge axis shifts east of cntl NC, skies are expected to be sunny/clear. The air mass will also be dry, however, such that strong radiational cooling will favor lows in the low-mid 30s Tue night.
High pressure continues to build in across the area with mid and upper level ridging building in from the west tonight and Tuesday. This should result in temperatures +5F to +7F warmer than today on Tuesday afternoon. Water vapor imagery places the upper lvl trough axis just east of the forecast area this afternoon while flow veers toward the northwest with increasing height rises. Winds have remained gusty this afternoon given a tight pressure gradient as high pressure nudges into the Tennessee Valley. Increasing heights aloft and high pressure at the surface brings much drier air to the region during the period with clear skies. Tuesday will be warmer as temperatures climb into the upper 50's to low 60's. A series of upper trough and jet streaks will move through through the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians.
A broken line of showers moving across the southern half of the forecast area is associated with several factors including diurnal heating, a transitory region of jet forced ascent and pre-frontal trough. Guidance suggests another round of showers with sct PoP, and perhaps a storm or two will be possible during the overnight approach and passage of the cold front, which is over the FL panhandle as of 8 PM. Cooler and drier air will filter in overnight after FROPA very early Tuesday.
Spring-like temperatures are ahead for the next couple of days as high pressure brings dry wx and a warming trend. Most areas had reached the lower 50s this afternoon, and the pattern looks favorable for temperatures to rise above our standard model blend through midweek.
552 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Windy conditions are expected tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region.
913 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure will bring a short break before a weak Clipper moves across the region early Tuesday.
555 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 As of 3pm, temperatures range from the low 40s in central/eastern Nebraska to the low 60s in the snow-free areas of north-central Kansas. A cold front will pass through the area by Tuesday evening.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A cold front passed through the area this morning with very weak CAA. High pressure will briefly settle in behind the front across Southeast Texas this afternoon and then continue its trek eastward across the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. With the movement of this system to the east and the development of a low pressure system over the Texas Panhandle region on Tuesday, the northerly wind shift will be brief, with light to calm winds expected overnight and a southeasterly flow developing by Tuesday evening. No mentionable rain chances are expected through the short term with mid level ridging building into Tuesday. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80, and will then only drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night with the southeasterly flow.
I extended the High Wind Warning for the region until 11 am Tuesday. The HREF continues to show widespread 50+ mph wind gusts downwind of the central and north-central mountain ranges as the strong cold front passes southeast this evening through early to mid Tuesday morning. A short period of snow is expected over Southwest MT tonight as a cold front moves through the region, with a few heavier snow showers possible.
A plume of warmer air aloft (H85 temps 5-10C) will advect eastward across the area ahead of the wave during the day Tuesday. A cold front will move into western Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, with northwest winds increasing to 31016G24KT.
547 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 For the 23/00Z TAF update, VFR skies prevail in a ridge over our airspace that is gradually shifting eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Winds should keep the atmosphere will mixed Tuesday Night and thus, stayed on the warmer side of guidance with the return of low clouds tickling our western and southern zones by sunrise Wed Morning.
556 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Area rain and snow will diminish today with an exiting low pressure system.
High pressure will support mainly dry weather and warmer interior temperatures for the next few days. Strong high pressure centered well offshore remains the dominant weather feature for northwest California, promoting dry and mostly sunny conditions this afternoon aside from some lingering patchy stratus in the process of dissipating along the Redwood Coast. Dry weather will persist for the next several days as high pressure remains in control, with daytime temperatures running 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals across the interior and near normal at the coast. Afternoon highs will approach the low 70s again on Tuesday across southern Mendocino and Lake Counties. High pressure offshore and warm interior temperatures will also contribute to a strengthening pressure gradient and gusty northerly winds.
/issued 214 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ Upper ridge building in from the west today bringing warm wx to the region.
939 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure returns overnight.
241 PM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 An upper trough will continue to affect the eastern two thirds of the CONUS tonight and Tuesday, with low amplitude WNW flow across the northern Plains. The next strong wave will cross the region late tonight into Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the CWA Tuesday morning.
815 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 The cold front is lagging further west which has allowed the eastern half of the area to develop some fog as temperatures fall to the dewpoint temperature. Tuesday will be a cool and dry with lows in the low to mid 40s then warming to the upper 60s for the afternoon, along with clear skies.
636 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure returns tonight.
Even the frontal boundary slated to arrive during the late afternoon and evening looks to feature an airmass modified by downsloping over the High Plains.
Look for warmer temperatures again on Tuesday with mostly clear skies and light winds as a mild airmass remains over Arizona.
834 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure will gradually build in from the southwest through the middle of the week while weak disturbances pass to the north. Another low pressure system may impact the region toward the end of the week. Otherwise, tonight is expected to be seasonable with low temperatures generally in the lower 30s (20s mountains).
High pressure continues across the region, bringing quieter weather to all locations into Tusday.
159 PM PST Mon Feb 22 2021 Ridge bringing generally light winds and mild temperatures today and Tuesday.
With deep mixing and good insolation, expecting highs to be a bit warmer than today with most areas topping out in the upper 60s and low 70s. A cold front progresses through the forecast area late Tuesday although moisture is limited, so FROPA is expected to be dry.
246 PM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 We extended the High Wind Warning for the Absaroka Mountains through 5 PM. Winds have picked up into the 40-50 mph range across Natrona, but should get into the high category soon. High winds look to return late Tuesday morning through the rest of the day as the cold front moves through the area, with strong winds continuing through the afternoon in the wake of the front. The cold front will quickly move across the forecast area Tuesday morning, clearing areas east of the Divide by midday.
Saturation is lacking in the lower levels of the atmosphere for areas further south, but cannot rule out some sprinkles and flurries south to along the Interstate 90 corridor. A brief period of freezing drizzle is also possible this evening over north-central Wisconsin but significant icing is not expected. There will be some dry air in the low levels to overcome, so this might end up being more of the sprinkle/flurry nature, but wouldn't be surprised to see a few light rain or snow showers given the strength of warm air advection.
Quiet and warmer under high pressure midweek before modest cool down arrives late week. However, some light scattered showers lingering behind today's cold front are currently moving across the northern and western portions of the CWA. Tonight remains dry and mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the low 30s for the lowlands, and 20s for the high elevations. Precipitation in the high elevations should fall as snow, with rain elsewhere. During the day, surface level high pressure will begin building in from the southwest which will allow for dry conditions across the southern portion of the CWA. Precipitation will generally come to an end by Tuesday night as high pressure continues to build. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach 40s to low 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains.
337 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 As of 3pm, temperatures range from the low 40s in central/eastern Nebraska to the low 60s in the snow-free areas of north-central Kansas. A cold front will pass through the area by Tuesday evening.
Midweek, another cold front will move into the area, however it is expected to stall over us.
/NEW/ /Now through Tuesday Night/ High pressure is centered just to our east now with a south- southwest wind prevailing across the region.
607 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 A weak cold front will move through late tonight, followed by high pressure.
Deep layer, synoptic scale ridging remains in place, centered to our northeast (near Bermuda) in the low-levels (925-700mb) with mid- to upper-level ridging centered over the Caribbean to our south. Concerning the forecast, no major changes were made from the previous cycle with the main features being a weak cold front moving into the area late tonight into tomorrow, and then E-SE breezes freshening this weekend as strong high pressure moves into the western North Atlantic from the Mid-Atlantic region. PoPs of 10-20% tonight and tomorrow (in association with the front) will be the highest of the forecast period, as ridging and dry air limit PoPs for the remainder of the week.
438 PM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 An upper trough will continue to affect the eastern two thirds of the CONUS tonight and Tuesday, with low amplitude WNW flow across the northern Plains. The next strong wave will cross the region late tonight into Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the CWA Tuesday morning.