Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY BEHIND LATEST WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH.
CLOUDS INCREASING WITH WINDS INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
/ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/ SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE FORECAST AREA AND 2 AM TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BRINGING HEIGHT RISES TO WEST TEXAS WHILE NRLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED. SURFACE LEE-TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MODEST SRLY BREEZES. WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD TO FINISH OUT THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS WEEK. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS VERY DRY AND SUNNY WITH GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES.
WITH ALL OF THIS SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR MASS THOUGH WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SE TOWARDS NC/VA REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. AS THE LOW DIPS SE. CAPE VALUES ~200 J/KG AND TERRAIN IN NE AL THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NW-N EARLY THIS EVENING UPON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
711 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE TYPICAL BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON UTAH WEATHER. THE PARENT TROUGH ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALL DEPICT SWRN ARIZONA DIRECTLY UNDER THE H5 580DM RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING.
647 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/7AM TODAY THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. A COLD POOL OF AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW, HELPING CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EAST OF I-57, WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE PRESENT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PEAK TOWARD 18Z WHEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT TO EASTERN IL. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES. THIS WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FELT THROUGHOUT WESTERN KANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.
716 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH FOUND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
Looks like the higher 00z MAV MOS temp forecast is right on the money and have continued, while making adjustments mainly to sky cover where west of the MS river, few if any clouds will be seen today with any diurnal clouds expected to either follow the weak front and higher dewpoints just south of I-70 currently or what advects in from the Great Lakes region later today into southern IL. Upper low currently over Great Lakes region is expected to remain E of the area.
The upper trof axis has now pushed east of the CWA with the upper low now in western TN and it will continue moving slowly east. More important is the expansive and dominate surface/low level ridge, and it will continue to have a significant influence with only very slight veering of the lower tropospheric winds. I have been pessimistic and held onto more clouds tonight and into Tuesday than some of the low level RH fields might suggest.
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THEN A RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FOR THU. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE.
75 /ISSUED 649 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA. READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEW POINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015 A closed off upper level low pressure system was slowly moving across the deep south triggering thunderstorms across Alabama and Georgia. This break in cloud cover will cool the region down into the low to mid 50s tonight. We will also see more sunshine Tuesday with temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND JUST OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS.
644 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 FOR 00Z AVIATION AS WELL AS UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM UPPER LOW THAN YESTERDAY. A FASTER EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MEANS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO ALABAMA SOONER. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
900 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015 Cooler weather continues tonight along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE MID LEVELS.
WITH OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING A DRIER NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS ALSO JUST TO OUR EAST. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT NUDGES EWD EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO CLIMB SLOWLY AS WELL.
703 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
912 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
A HAPPILY QUIET FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
A COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHILE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN TROUGH ELONGATED WEST TO EAST REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. BUT A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH H7 LEVELS HAS ALREADY CROSSED NORTHWEST UTAH.
MODELS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY RIDGE REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN MN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINANT DURING THIS PERIOD BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
Generally light southerly surface winds will continue through tomorrow with the 850mb thermal ridge over West Texas edging a little further to the east. Therefore, expect warmer temperatures than today with highs tomorrow in the upper 80s to around 90. Models continue to build an upper ridge over Texas by late week.
1252 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL BE MORE OF A MORNING EVENT FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHILE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE MOST OF THEIR PRECIP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.
1101 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS ABLE TO FEED SOME DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.
930 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC EAST INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. THE RIDGING AND COOL AIR DAMMING EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE DELAWARE VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IT WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT NORTH. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
640 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CU FIELD AND CLOUD DECK ACROSS SE IA/MO. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND KEPT HIGHS A BIT WARMER BENEATH THE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANDRES GETTING PULLED IN WITH THE TROUGH. MARINE LYR TO HOVER IN THE 2K-3K' RANGE BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OCCURS THU WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.
UPPER LOW NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS MORNING HAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS STARTED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GADSDEN TO NEAR LIVINGSTON. TOI AND MGM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE LOWEST. 16 /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM UPPER LOW THAN YESTERDAY. A FASTER EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MEANS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO ALABAMA SOONER. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
932 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LAKE BREEZES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E. WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS. WITH PATCHY FROST WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND JUST INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS INLAND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. BUT ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS ON TUE.
GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A BATTLE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO UP TOWARD THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. DEWPOINTS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS COULD MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST LATE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 81 63 82 / 40 40 20 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 79 62 79 / 40 40 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 79 62 79 / 40 40 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 76 60 76 / 50 40 30 60.
932 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA TO KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OUR TWO OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES BUT DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THIS DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF US AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER RIDGING ALOFT.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL SHIELDED FROM SATELLITE VIEW BY CIRROSTRATUS. DEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS PER 01. MOS ARRIVED ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS LIMITING OUT TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENTERING TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE CONDITIONS REMAINED COOLER TO THE NORTH UNDER CLOUD COVER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /MAINLY NORTH OF BOISE/ OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 70S.
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY BUT STILL KEEP MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure lies across southwest Virginia which has brought low clouds, showers and north/northeast winds to the region. Overall, an unseasonably cool start to meteorological summer across the lower Ohio Valley. Plan on highs in the low to mid 70s.
922 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK. STILL EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE THAT WILL MANAGE TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BUT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE SURFACE FLOW MAY TRY TO BACK AROUND TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN NORTHERN UTAH. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY EXPERIENCE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015 A closed off upper level low pressure system was slowly moving across the deep south triggering thunderstorms across Alabama and Georgia. This break in cloud cover will cool the region down into the low to mid 50s tonight. We will also see more sunshine Tuesday with temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
1150 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CU FIELD AND CLOUD DECK ACROSS SE IA/MO. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND KEPT HIGHS A BIT WARMER BENEATH THE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.
1144 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE. WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SIMILAR SET UP WILL BE PRESENT FOR EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT.
1029 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 CURRENTLY - THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS HOLDING ON OVER FLORIDA. SKIES ARE OCCASIONALLY BEING SHROUDED BY CIRRUS FLOWING IN FROM A TROUGH ALOFT ALIGNED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD BE SPREADING INTO DEWEY/STANLEY/JONES COUNTIES BY 05Z.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY.
827 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY ALONG OR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
1251 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP SCT MENTION OVERNIGHT FOR NOW AND HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS IF WE SEE A MORE SOLID COVERAGE OF CIGS IN THE LOW VFR/MVFR CATEGORY. FLOW WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS PER 01. MOS ARRIVED ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS LIMITING OUT TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENTERING TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
649 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
729 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
741 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1024 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ UPPER RIDGING. AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT.
UPPER LOW NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS MORNING HAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS STARTED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GADSDEN TO NEAR LIVINGSTON. TOI AND MGM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE LOWEST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS THROUGH SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE.
812 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 AVIATION QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
828 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS ABLE TO FEED SOME DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.
1210 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AVIATION QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA. READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD.