Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will be shifting to the north- northeast during the early morning hours and will be gusty at times with the arrival of a cold front. This area remains within rich plume of tropical moisture where slightly stronger and cooler mid-level flow is encountering broad area of low-level convergence with surface trof. Healthy pops are carried through the night as 700 mb theta-e axis translates slightly eastward ahead of incoming cold front. Cold front currently in western Kansas and eastern Colorado expected to make its move into northwest parts of the forecast area by 12z Friday, sweeping through remaining parts by noon.
Meanwhile, a cold front will push into the region from the Plains. The front will stall as it encounters a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United States.
146 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Surface map at 06Z shows high pressure situated off to the east with a low pressure center over the Louisiana coast and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the central Plains. The NAM brings the system almost due north to near MEM by 18Z Saturday and merging with the cold front as it approaches from the northwest. The GFS, on the other hand, carries the low center farther west owing to the strength of the Bermuda High, and merging with the aforementioned cold front to form a quasi- stationary boundary to our northwest.
A strong upper level ridge is centered just offshore and will build over the area today.
the sfc cold front across Ncntl Neb will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. A blend of guidance plus bias correctionsuggested highs in the low to mid 80s Friday. 3000-4000 J/KG and 40 to 50 kt which would support strong or severe storm development with any storms which become rooted in the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Additional instability in the trough of an upper low will generate showers across central SD that may reach as far east as the Missouri river. The sfc and upper lows will exit north on Friday. Temperatures will be suppressed by cloud cover in the upper trough, but should still manage to top out in the 80s.
The mid level flow will become southeasterly as the ridge centered off the mid-Atlantic states continues to build westward. The low level flow will generally be from the south. Temperatures will also be close to climo with highs around 90 to the lower 90s.
Tonight Through Friday An upper level low pressure trough moving through the Northern Rockies will bring an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Temperatures will be cooler with lighter winds overall. The low level moisture will be enhanced. As the trough passes to the east.
Areal coverage of the higher rates remains rather localized at the moment. Thunder threat will remain with activity as models indicate modest instability developing along weak front/inverted trough moving through the area today. Convergence along this boundary is quite weak, although the impulse may supply just enough lift to generate isolated showers/thunderstorms especially given dewpoints will still be in the low/mid 60s ahead of the boundary.
Northeast Montana remains under the influence of the weakening upper low, now spinning over Manitoba. With the base of the upper trough to our east, flow aloft will be northwesterly today. With the trough sagging into the upper middle of the Central prairie, the cooler air-mass from the north will bring about another day with below average temperatures for a another mild day. The trough will finally move far enough away to the east Saturday allowing the building ridge in the west to take over our local weather. The hot desert air-mass under the ridge will begin to shift north. But Saturday will likely stay under the cooler air for one more day, just a couple of degrees warmer than Friday.
344 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over south central Canada with broad shallow trof across the northern CONUS. At the surface, weak low pressure has moved into Minnesota with high pressure building into the Northern Rockies. High temperatures will climb into the lower 80s across the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 92 73 92 / 20 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN Generally VFR conditions A quiet night across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region. with high pressure still in control just to the east. and a moist boundary layer will keep lows quite warm in the low to mid 70s once again.
Luckily winds are progged to remain light under the relaxed PGF regime of the high pressure we are currently under so we should avoid any critical fire weather concerns today.
An upper trough over Southeast Louisiana will move northward along the Mississippi River. Rain chances will continue to increase through the period as the upper low approaches. However, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the period as a cold front moves into the area from the northwest. The mosaic radar imagery indicates the upper low spinning over Srn MS/extreme SE LA this evening. The short term progs remain in good agreement with convection initiation a little earlier Friday morning over NE LA as the center of the low slowly nudges slowly W. Have also added locally heavy rainfall wording to the Ern Ncntrl LA parishes Friday as the outer convective bands around the Wrn periphery of the low will develop within a very high PW air mass characteristic of values near/in excess of 2.
Excessive heat conditions are likely to impact portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. Heat advisory across the Lower Susq Valley remains in effect through Sat for aftn heat indices over 100F and abnormally high overnight temps. We extended the heat advy for the Lower Susq Valley through Friday and added an excessive heat watch for the weekend.
Medium An Upper level trough over the Dakotas moves to just northwest of Lake Superior tonight. GFS surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s. SO have added some small pops for mainly the northern and eastern cwa in vcnty to the lower level trough.
322 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Heavy rainfall/flash flood concerns continue to ramp up as we head through the weekend and tropical moisture interacts with stalling cold front near the Ohio River Valley and back into the Ozark Foothill region of southeast MO.
An upper level ridge will move over Western Washington today then shift over Eastern Washington tonight, as an approaching upper level trough starts to weaken it. The ridge will produce sunny and warm weather today and Saturday.
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Elevated low level moisture transport ahead of the surface cold front will continue to support scattered convection early this morning generally along/east of the Kansas turnpike. Some post-frontal convection is also expected today and early tonight where a pool of 850 mb moisture will reside under the trailing mid-level upper trof. While temperatures will be somewhat cooler or less hot the next couple days, they will still be just a few degrees below mid-August climo.
The upper trough axis extended down along the Rockies early this morning, while at the surface the cold front has rushed south across the plains and into New Mexico and the Panhandles. The upper trough is forecast to gradually move to the east through the short term, while at the surface easterly upslope flow will remain in place. The passage of the cold front overnight has ushered in more moist air, which models say will pool up against the eastern mts along the I-25 corridor. Convection should fire over the higher terrain by midday, with activity then spilling over onto the I-25 corridor as well as the San Luis Valley. with at least some potential for some isolated thunderstorms to linger through the night across the plains as upper trof slowly trails across.
Baroclinic zone will be residing somewhere across the southeastern half of the forecast area at the start of the period as long wave trough will be slow to eject. Front will layout somewhere across central Indiana for much of the upcoming week with a series of troughs causing undulations in the location of this feature. High temperatures will hold in the lower to middle 80s with heat indices staying in the same general range. Old convective complex should impact areas mainly west of terminals during remainder of the overnight hours, although isolated to scattered showers and storms may continue to fire mainly north of terminals along narrow low level frontogenesis/theta-e ridge axis.
318 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Upper trough passing over the Rockies has weakened the persistent ridge extending across the southern half of the country. This trough will bring cooler wx and a good chance of rain for the area. and cooler outflows.
An upper level low will move along the international border Saturday as a trough moves through the forecast area.
Building high pressure will result in a warming trend over the next several days with inland temperatures reaching the triple digits. High pressure is in place over the area this morning.
A upper level ridge will build over the great basin over the next several days. The ridge is currently building across the great basin.
Lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Highs still slightly above normal in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast with dewpoints in the lower/middle 70s to help Heat Indices peak in the 100-105 degree range. Storm Motion still generally moving from SE to NW at 10-15 mph, and slightly cooler in the mid level with 500 mb temps cooling into the -5C to -7C range, but still likely not enough to help trigger much in the way of severe storms, so still expect the usual strong storms with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lighting with best chances over inland areas where sea breezes come together. Lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s coast.
344 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The upper level ridge center located off of the Carolina coast will continue to keep convection disorganized across our area through the first half of the weekend. The higher resolution models had a good handle on the convective outcome from yesterday afternoon, so have sided with these solutions through the short term, given the continued pattern. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will get nudged a bit more off to the east with the approach of a trough moving in from the northern plains. Highs may be just a touch cooler in the northwest given the additional cloud cover, with similar readings across the southeast.
Expect that activity to weaken with redevelopment likely during the afternoon as a cold front drops south into the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with clouds and precipitation in the area, but humidity will remain.
508 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A stronger southward push on the effective cold front has increased convergence and likewise coverage of convection just ahead of the boundary across southern and eastern Kansas. KED Elevated low level moisture transport ahead of the surface cold front will continue to support scattered convection early this morning generally along/east of the Kansas turnpike. Some post-frontal convection is also expected today and early tonight where a pool of 850 mb moisture will reside under the trailing mid-level upper trof. While temperatures will be somewhat cooler or less hot the next couple days, they will still be just a few degrees below mid-August climo.
A warming trend is still on tap Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds and the marine layer compresses.
Nose of drier air aloft is noted on derived satellite imagery with PWATs across the Lower Rio Grande Valley currently estimated to be 1. but in turn max temps may also be slightly warmer.
The future evolution of this boundary is key to heat headlines today, but given the limited convection remaining to its north, believe it is most likely to wash out and allow temperatures to heat up again today ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will eventually stall just to our southeast as a weak wave of low pressure forms along it. The NAM also appears overdone with the low, and we prefer the more suppressed and weaker look of the ECMWF and UKMET models.
1145 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 Aviation Section Updated A broad upper level trough with axis from Western Canada south through MT/WY will maintain a NW flow aloft over the region tonight. Upper level low over southern Manitoba will continue to move slowly eastward and away from Montana.
412 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The tail end of a low amplitude mid-level trough of low pressure continued to sweep eastward over the forecast area early this morning. Clouds had largely cleared behind the trough axis allowing for a good look at the Perseid meteor showers. Consequently, cut PoPs back to isolated coverage and confined this activity to the higher terrain along the Continental Divide and the eastern Uinta Mountains. Despite morning sunshine, afternoon highs will be a bit cooler due to the passage of a weak cold front overnight.
314 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A weak upper level trough and remnant frontal boundary will keep chances for scattered showers and storms in the forecast today into tonight, best chances during the afternoon hours.
with SE OK into west central AR having the higher chance of flight impacts. a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back over the Southern Plains starting Sunday and continue through the upcoming work week. temperatures should begin a warming trend Sunday with each day through the middle part of the week being near to a degree or so warmer then the previous day.
a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back over the Southern Plains starting Sunday and continue through the upcoming work week. temperatures should begin a warming trend Sunday with each day through the middle part of the week being near to a degree or so warmer then the previous day.
1110 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Broad high pressure will continue to stretch across the desert southwest to the southeast states. A better surge of moisture will move over the area on Sunday as the high pressure over the southwest CONUS begins to be pushed to the east. daytime temperatures will run a little cooler. Nighttime lows will be on the warmer side for the same reason.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): The broad weakness in the 500 mb ridging in place over the southern United States will shift gradually west through this weekend. Since the 500 mb ridging will be rebuilding over the region expect temps to stay close to persistence which is also supported by the numerical model trends. The ECMWF has a slight warmer bias versus the NAM and GFS temps. Since the ECMWF temps are a little closer to persistence values from the last several days will go on the warmer side of guidance especially for high temps for Saturday and Sunday.
633 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A weak upper level trough and remnant frontal boundary will keep chances for scattered showers and storms in the forecast today into tonight, best chances during the afternoon hours.
349 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend. Water vapor images show little change in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere with a large ridge extending from the desert SW to well into the E Pac.
Shower chances will increase overnight as as low pressure approaches from the west. Another wave will dig into the base of the upper level trough by Sunday afternoon.
358 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 The base of a broad upper trough is in place across the region with weak cyclonic curvature at 500mb. This shift is due to the mean trough moving to the east coast and the ridge center building over the plains.
326 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes down into northern MO places the area in clear skies and light winds overnight. Outside of the heat island around the metro area, the low temperatures are expected to drop down enough to create areas of fog and lower visibilities. Saturday night into Sunday morning a stationary boundary over northern Arkansas and Oklahoma returns to the area as a warm frontal boundary.
Calm and variable winds will prevail through the early morning hours as high pressure builds into S Florida today. Added VCTS for PBI, FXE, TMB and APF where the higher chance for thunderstorms is possible. The drying trend will continue through tonight as depicted by the high res models and have decreased pops to account for this.
A broad area of low pressure remains in place across the area. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area late tonight into Sunday, which will lower thunderstorm chances a bit. Models depict weak high pressure nosing into the area late tonight through the remainder of the weekend, which will significantly lower but perhaps not completely eliminate thunderstorm chances from central Indiana.
But increasing westerly flow around an upper-level trough over British Columbia will quickly push it back out of the area tonight. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Sunday, but still near seasonal normals. Upper level westerly winds increase on Sunday, so should see breezy conditions in the Snake Plain, and over the ridgetops.
512 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure will build across the region today through Sunday.
315 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper ridge axis located over the western U. Later in the week a West Coast trough will displace the ridge somewhat to the east but not dislodge it.
The mid level ridge axis will move back overhead during the day Sunday and it appears it will remain there through the week. However, will keep SChc PoPs over extreme western and northwestern OK for Thurs as this area will remain on the western fringe of said ridge.
Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front. High pressure will build southeast across the area Sunday night. The high will move southeast by mid week allowing for a return back to warmer temperatures.
northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region through the first half of this weekend before an upper ridge begins to build in from the southwest.
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure covered the forecast area at 19Z with a northeast wind near Lake Superior. The high pressure will cover the region tonight. Models are trying to bring an upper level short wave trof to the Red River Valley of the North by 09Z/4am. Meanwhile, the models try to push the short wave trof a bit farther eastward. There are differences in location of the trof and associated areas of vorticity drifting over the forecast area.
315 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure centered over the SW U. This slow moving trough will help push the high pressure to the south and east today and Sunday. This movement will gradually position the ridge to help draw moisture north and into the area. A better surge of moisture will move over the area on Sunday as the high pressure over the southwest CONUS begins to be pushed to the east. daytime temperatures will run a little cooler. Nighttime lows will be on the warmer side for the same reason.
Deep layer high pressure remains in place over the Gulf Coast region, with no discernible upper level forcing present around our area. Deep layer ridging will remain in place over the southeast through Sunday night, with a mid-upper level trough sliding eastward to our north across the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. As this trough swings eastward, PW values over our area will slowly climb to 2" or greater by Saturday evening. Maximum temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, but apparent temperatures will again be in the 100-105 range.
especially along the higher terrain. A broad upper-trough will swing through the region during the afternoon/evening.
Upper low over British Columbia and diffluent flow into Alberta generating thunderstorms over the Canadian Rockies early this morning. Additional storms will generate through the day but with upper low dropping south, could see the storms slip across the border and track along the hiline tonight. As the upper low moves into Alberta on Sunday, the surface dry line/cold front pushes through eastern Montana.
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs into the MS River Valley. Moisture is increasing across the region with a series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough. however with the short waves continuing to move into the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms to persist into tonight.
631 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs into the MS River Valley. Moisture is increasing across the region with a series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough. however with the short waves continuing to move into the area ahead of the upper level trough expect a few thunderstorms to persist into tonight.
237 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Water vapor satellite early this morning indicates a weak short wave trough was over North Dakota.
The best rain chances should be east of a line from Clarksville to Hemphill, TX, where the higher levels of moisture are located. A similar forecast is expected for Sunday, but rain chances should be lower as subsidence from a building upper ridge becomes more dominant. The ridge will continue to build over the South Central U. However, model guidance suggests it will not be as robust as the ridge associated with the oppressive heat of a few weeks ago.
404 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 The Aberdeen forecast area will be stuck between 2 systems through Sunday night, high pressure from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and organizing low pressure from southern Alberta through MT, eastern WY, and far western SD. Sunday will also be when the 500MB ridge moves in, in response to the low currently over northern British Columbia shifting across Alberta.
355 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 The weak and broad upper troughing pattern will continue into this weekend.
With less low and mid level moisture availability and warmer temperatures at mid levels of the atmosphere, expect less coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along with warmer temperatures at NAM and GFS guidance temperatures suggest. The subtropical upper high center to shift east from the Four Corners to the south central Great Plains by midweek. However, diurnal convective coverage will be isolated to widely scattered at best and confined to the higher terrain and portions of the plains.
331 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Weak upper low embedded in a broad trough still over the area producing plenty of low stratus along with light to calm winds. Today: Similar weather pattern as the past couple of days with weak upper level low/trough over the area, combined with a short wave arriving from the west. Tonight: Models finally shift the upper trough/short wave quickly into the OH Valley as heights begin to rise. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Southern counties look most favored for organized storms, along the 850mb moisture convergence axis with support from short wave energy along the periphery of the upper ridge.
317 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A cooling trend to begin today as the dominating high pressure pattern weakens.
Isolated convection is ongoing mainly east of I 65 with broad upper level troughing pattern.
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure will build across the area through today.
1017 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A cooling trend will begin tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure that has been dominating our weather pattern weakens. Temperatures this afternoon are running similar to yesterdays as a ridge of high pressures remains in control. A cooling trend will begin tomorrow as weak troughing develops and brings roughly 5 degrees of cooling to interior Northern California. Additionally, the weak troughing overhead will be conducive to a decent afternoon/evening delta breeze for this weekend.