Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
920 PM PST WED JAN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS CO AND NM.
AND A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A ZONAL JET OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE NEXT TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KEYS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
PVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ECHOS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE REASON FOR THAT IS BECAUSE SOUNDING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAN TOWARD RAIN BUT IF A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF WET BULB COOLING IS UTILIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC WET BULB VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING.
Most places in SE NM are near or below freezing at the time of this discussion and other areas should begin to cool faster once the low clouds diminish across the region. Will continue mention of patchy freezing fog mainly along and north of a Marfa to Ft. Areas father east should stay a bit warmer so just included mention of patchy fog for those locations. The upper trough that has been hanging around for the last several day will finally exit to the east today and the sun should make a welcomed appearance by late morning. Highs will be considerably warmer today, although still slightly below normal. Friday, SW winds develop at the surface as surface lee troughing strengthens and extends south through eastern NM.
1216 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED W/A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH COULD SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. IT'S AN ELONGATED TROUGH, ALMOST NORLUN TYPE EVENT.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND FORECAST SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AT FREEZING OR BELOW MAY NOT ALLOW A COMPLETE SWITCH TO RAIN. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. THIS LED TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING IN THE LOW LEVELS. AND WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL START OUT JUST BELOW FREEZING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD ONCE MORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEVELOPING SYSTEM THOUGH OVER THE WRN GULF WILL QUICKLY GET PICKED UP BY A TROUGH PATTERN DIVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES HEADING INTO THE MORNING HRS THU.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACROSS OHIO VALLEY WILL ONLY HAVE A VERY SLIGHT IMPACT ON THIS TREND. WITH MODELS INDICATED A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY MORNING A VERY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES.
949 PM PST WED JAN 14 2015 High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest through Thursday morning.
AFTER DRY WEATHER THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD GET AT LEAST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING. AND GIVEN THAT ONLY A TINY PART OF THE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST IS TOPPING FREEZING TODAY. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW SOME OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. COULD EVEN REACH THE MID 40S IN THE LOWER BRULE AREA.
/ISSUED 912 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015/ MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THIS BAND STREAKING EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND IT SEEMS TO BE CAUSED BY AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER JET LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING.
As this s/w approaches, it appears the ULJ, mid level trof and frontogenetic forcing phase to help enhance precip across srn MO into srn IL. With this fast moving system and relatively warmer temps, have used a 13 to 1 LSR. Otherwise, have trended temps twd the cooler guidance across the nrn third of the CWA where there brief clearing shud help temps drop quickly. Have trended twd warmer guidance across srn portions where the approaching system will help keep temps up.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING APPROACHING NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
FINALLY BROKEN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT WERE ISSUES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME CU AND TOWERING CU THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
329 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL FLATTEN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME IN RETURNING TO WEST TEXAS.
312 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
Mesocale Update for Severe Storm Potential this Afternoon and Cold front will continue to push steadily to the east across the area this afternoon into this evening. A cap remains in place ahead of the front, but with lift from the cold front and height falls with the associated upper level low, the cap is weakening and storms are beginning to develop along the front. As the cold front continues to march east and height falls and large scale lift continue to over spread the area, still expecting a line or line segments to develop along the front late this afternoon into early this evening generally east of Highway 65. High pressure should build into the area from the west with a cooler and drier air mass moving in.
308 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri. Once the front passes, windy and cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east clearing trend by dawn. Low level thermal ridge and moisutre axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front. Shear with strong upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
241 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
1220 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 /18Z TAFS/ A cold front was located along a line from KSOA to KBWD at 18z this afternoon. Overnight, the cold front will begin its northward retreat as a warm front. and then northeast tonight at the terminals as a cold front moves south across the area. As an upper trough continues to move east, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland today. Another cold front will begin to push into West Central Texas later today; however, this event will be mainly a wind shift, and winds from the north to northeast won't begin until overnight. Thus, overnight lows will be cooler than the last couple nights, but still in mainly the 55 to 60 range; that's 5 to 10 degrees above normals.
A ridge of high pressure will move over the Northern Rockies on Friday. This ridge will bring a warming trend with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.
509 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
Cold front will continue to push steadily to the east across the area this afternoon into this evening. A cap remains in place ahead of the front, but with lift from the cold front and height falls with the associated upper level low, the cap is weakening and storms are beginning to develop along the front. As the cold front continues to march east and height falls and large scale lift continue to over spread the area, still expecting a line or line segments to develop along the front late this afternoon into early this evening generally east of Highway 65. The upper trough and associated cold front will swing to the east of the area tonight.
1229 PM PDT THU APR 9 2015 POST FRONTAL CUMULUS OVER THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS TODAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT THIS WEEK AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TODAY. THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT LIFTS INLAND.
140 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
LOCAL FINE SCALE MODELING INDICATES SOME LOW TOPPED SPRINKLES SNEAKING IN FROM THE MARINE AREA ROUGHLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OVERNIGHT AND CONSIDERING ESE-SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WL KEEP A SMALL SHOWER CHC IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FORECAST FOR THE TREASURE CST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. BUT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
227 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SUGGEST SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY AT LEAST.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. AND AS THE UL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL ENERGY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND 06Z. A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z. FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY COOLER. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR.
321 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 What began as a warm morning across the eastern half of the area has quickly cooled down into the 40s and 50s as a cold front moves through the Plains.
STILL EXPECTING THE CAP TO ERODE BY EVENING DUE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AND WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. I AM A BIT CONCERNED NOT MUCH WILL GO ON UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BUT THINK PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND. AND GEM ALL MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON. WITH HIGHS RUNNING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
502 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. AND AS THE UL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL ENERGY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND 06Z. A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z. FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY COOLER. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR.
145 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN.
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 90S. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT CREATING A SLIGHT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE STATE BY THE TAILEND OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND CREATE EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WINDS AT KSAF AND KABQ THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COOLER TODAY WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES PERSISTING THIS MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.
603 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 Today/Tonight: The approach of the upper trough and strengthening low-level jet has aided in sufficient ascent to generate an increase in convective development over the past 1-2 hours across parts of the Central Plains and Mid Missouri Valley. Current surface analysis point to low pressure near Great Bend, KS with an accompanying cold front stretching southwestward, and near stationary warm front northeast from the low situated over far northwest Missouri near STJ. Forecast reflects the anticipation of shallow convection to develop along the cold front prior to midday just east of the KS/MO border. High pressure builds in on Friday, with the coolest day in the near-term with highs in the middle 60s. As the high shifts east for the weekend, warmer weather and a return of southerly winds/moisture will commence.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.
At 3 PM, a cold front stretched from southern Brown County (Brookesmith area) to Ozona. For tomorrow, the aforementioned front will head back north as a warm front, with southeasterly surface winds developing in it's wake. An upper low approaching Baja California will allow southwest winds aloft to prevail through the period. PED (Friday Night through Thursday) By Friday night an upper low will be situated west of the northern Baja Peninsula with the upper flow aloft backing more to the southwest over the forecast area in response.
340 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SUGGEST SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY AT LEAST.
STILL EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/NERN TX WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING SWD ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SERN TX.
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER BEGINS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA AND STALLS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
1234 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 THE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD MIXING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CLOSES IN ON OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER 12Z. VFR WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWEST LAYER MIXES OUT WITH GUSTY WINDS. /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. IN THE SHORT TERM THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. POPS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SWD THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR LIMITING WINDOW FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM CIG AND/OR VSBY TO ONE TOO SMALL TO INSERT INTO THE TAFS ATTM. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN NEWD ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR MASS THIS EVENING. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION SPURRING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BUT WE REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THIS RATE OF MOISTENING/SATURATION ALOFT GIVEN TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS PLANS TO STALL QUITE A WAYS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATED DAYS AGO.
351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. AND AS THE UL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL ENERGY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND 06Z. A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z. FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY COOLER. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR.
THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED ON A GRAVITY WAVE THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY DRAPED RIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS. AN SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIES NORTH OF I-30 BACK INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND A HANDFUL OF OUR COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM AS WELL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AND MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT BY THAT TIME. THE WPC QPF HAS AN INCH OR ISOLATED TWO INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST PUSH IN WITH THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT.
505 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN INTO OUR AREA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WAS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ZONES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
247 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS THEY RISE INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS BOTH COASTS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
BUT A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER.
640 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
1245 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ A RATHER SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO OUR EAST IS COMBINING WITH A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PINWHEELING GULF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN NW AL AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN NE AL PER THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE JUST WEST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS DISCONNECTED WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. INHIBITION AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.