Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure was tracking across Ontario early this morning. An attendant cold front extends across northern MN into portions of the the Dakotas, with a pre-frontal trough extending into central/western IA. Our area is entrenched in warm advection regime ahead of the front, characterized by SW winds gusty at times and notably warmer temps in the 30s - especially when compared to temps exactly 24 hrs ago which were 15-25 degrees colder and in the single digits and teens. Otherwise, I have continued to favor warmer side of guidance and near 75th percentile of NBM due to drier ground and progged 925 hPa temps. This has negative feedback on temps quite evident this morning with modeled 2m temps too cold by several degrees, and also a reason to side toward the warmer guidance.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will be north of the region through Tonight, with an inverted trough over the coastal waters. This trough will result in a somewhat pinched pressure gradient, which will enhance winds at the coast, and produce a few showers over the waters that will move ashore in the onshore flow. Temperatures Tonight will have a wide range due to the flow from the northeast, keeping coastal NE FL much warmer than areas further inland.
945 AM PST Mon Nov 21 2022 There will be be weaker winds with high clouds into Tuesday and with coastal areas a little cooler.
A light southerly low level flow is expected to continue through the night which will result in slightly warmer temperatures overnight.
1019 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will build into the area today with mostly clear skies in west Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel. High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s across most of the region.
Building high pressure mid-to-late week will allow temperatures to warm above seasonal averages. Lows tonight should run about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night, which will be close to normal for this time of the year. Despite the north winds and exiting clouds, it should still warm up nicely Tuesday afternoon with high temperatures expected to be a degree or two warmer than today's highs.
850mb temperatures show readings within a few degrees of those yesterday, supporting high temperatures in the lower 50s to around 60. the upper level flow shifts from west- northwest during the day to southwest during the night ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Will be going with highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Highs today have reached the lower 50s and they will be warmer tomorrow.
Building high pressure mid-to-late week will allow temperatures to warm above seasonal averages. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday. It stays breezy within the lower CRV, while away from the river valley winds will be light and variable.
1207 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2022 Mostly clear skies continue today and tonight as large-scale ridging remains over the region. Scattered high cirrus could keep lows a bit warmer, but continued to nudge the forecast towards persistence to capture the much-cooler-than-model-forecast lows that have been observed the past several mornings due to strong cold pools.
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will build into the area today with mostly clear skies in west Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel. High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s across most of the region.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s. Temperatures are forecast to generally remain above freezing, with a few locations falling to around freezing, so for now have kept a mention of freezing fog out of the forecast. Expect highs in upper 50s to mid 60s for most locations, with the cooler readings across our southern counties where cloud cover will persist the longest.
Flattened/nearly zonal flow aloft is expected to linger through mid week before a trough begins digging south across the Rockies. The flatter flow will allow temperatures to warm near to slightly above average, compared to the much colder temperatures experienced over the past week with broad troughing. This pattern and associated surface ridging forecast to build across the area will keep fairly quiet and dry conditions in place.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure over the southeastern and eastern US will remain through the short term. Moisture and warmer air will advect into the area. High temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s today. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s to low 40s. though the low levels will be very dry and should limit much precip reaching the ground Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system will slide across eastern Canada, helping to tighten the pressure gradient over our area between these two surface features. Although we'll see highs a full 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, these values will still be a bit below normal for this time of year.
1138 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 Only some minot tweaks to sky cover to better depict the low stratus in the east and north, otherwise no changes to the current forecast. The low level stratus is rapidly diving southward, although it's difficult to say how much of the forecast area will wind up underneath it. Right now, north central ND and the eastern James River Valley look to be the areas most likely to fall underneath this lower cloud cover in this CWA.
Temperatures are expected to fall back below freezing tonight for most areas except for the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. Residual boundary layer moisture along with ample radiational cooling will result in the redevelopment of fog and freezing fog mainly across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos tomorrow morning.
209 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 A diffuse cold front is making it's way through our CWA this afternoon, and this is amounting to little more than a wind change from west to northwest as it moves through. The lack of snow cover in reality, as helped with heating and deeper mixing, resulting in 1 PM temperatures in the lower 40s north to near 50 central and south.
1240 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Thanksgiving. Rain returns to end the week with crossing low pressure.
133 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure and a cool, dry airmass will remain over the region through today. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal as an arctic high pressure system settles into the central US.
Monitoring the potential for flurries or patchy freezing drizzle in the far northeastern part of the CWA, or under the low stratus deck. In the wake of a back door cold front that once again pushed H85 temps down below 0C in the northeast, there will be little mixing or waa today.
Winds will remain light out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph; with higher gusts possible across the highest elevation. With the increase in cloud coverage into the overnight hours low temperatures will be warmer than we have seen lately. Tomorrow upper level zonal flow will turn more southwesterly as a trough begins to dig across the western CONUS.
With some weak downslope over the dry soils, and a net warming of about +3C at 850 mb, followed the warmer 12z MAV guidance for Tuesday.
At 2 PM, an upper level trough axis stretched from central Ontario to western Kansas. Increased moisture (above 700 mb) behind the trough axis was producing scattered cirrus. At the surface a weak cold front was pushing towards the Nebraska/Kansas border. We are actually forecasting slight temperatures rises Tuesday, driven by the low level southerly flow and WAA. Late Week Storm System: The next noteworthy trough should move into the Plains by Thanksgiving day. Recent trends in the ensemble guidance have been towards a less progressive and more southerly track with this trough.
1001 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure will result in dry weather into Thanksgiving with a warming trend.
This will occur despite the cold front coming through later this morning that will turn winds from the southwest more to the northwest. Into Tuesday the steady WAA in the low levels will ramp up with southwest winds returning. With decent mixing during the day we should see temperatures reach into the low to mid 40s, perhaps a tad warmer but given the expectation of some clouds, especially to the north, we could see some of the potential for higher temps limited to some degree.
Finally, high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard has become somewhat elongated as it treks eastward towards the Western Atlantic.
Highs will reach the lower 50s this afternoon which is still below climatological norm, but we'll take it! Minor adjustments made to the cloud cover and hourly temps to accommodate current and forecasted trends, otherwise today's forecast is on track.
1248 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure will result in dry weather into Thanksgiving with a warming trend.
Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two cooler thanks to cloud cover and that's about it.
In response, low pressure at the sfc will deepen across the High Plains allowing southerly flow and low level moisture to surge northward into the Central Plains. A mild overnight period is expected for those south of the approaching cold front on Wed night/Thu morning and values were trended up across southeast KS.
240 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will linger over the region through the middle of the week. Low pressure may approach the area from the southwest by later this week or weekend. High pressure will become centered just offshore this afternoon.
The chances for a dusting up to an inch of accumulation will be possible mainly north of the highway 200 corridor. The morning will be cloudy with light snow tapering off on the MN side, but think we should see some sunshine in the afternoon, which will nudge the highs closer or even up to the freezing mark. The pattern initially is progressive with upper ridging over the Dakotas and a vigorous short wave digging in across the Rockies. The pattern then becomes more of a split jet regime as the trof develops into a closed low over the southern Rockies.
With the increase in cloud coverage into the overnight hours low temperatures will be warmer than we have seen lately. Tomorrow upper level zonal flow will turn more southwesterly as a trough begins to dig across the western CONUS.
100 PM PST Mon Nov 21 2022 Another cold night/morning with frost and some areas dropping to freezing. Will again see a few areas dropping to freezing mainly in rural areas, but should be a tad bit warmer from this morning.
A weak cold front located over northern Nebraska early this morning is still progged to hang up over northern Kansas this afternoon and lift back north Tuesday morning.
Some areas of fog/freezing fog have already developed along the upper Pecos Valley and Lea County but as the morning progresses, the low stratus and FG/FZFG should become one in the same. Another round of fog may develop late tonight, this time across the lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin where the better moisture will be found. The warming trend continues into Tuesday with high temperatures peaking in the low 60s for most.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, although southerly winds will be a touch stronger and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as a WAA pattern becomes better established across the CWA.
1126 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery is showing a short wave trough now moving into southwest Texas. Warmer today with afternoon highs in the 50s.
A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday night.
Upper ridging is control of the weather today. Dry NW flow aloft will be over the area today with a weak sfc lee trough along the front range. Tuesday will be mostly clear and dry with near normal temperatures, highs mostly 50s across the plains and 20s to 40s in the high country. There will be weak northwesterly to westerly flow aloft and a trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure in the vicinity Hudson Bay with a cold front that extended southwest through east-central WI to the central Plains. A weak area of high pressure was situated over ND. Otherwise, the high pressure is forecast to slide southeast across the region later this evening. Max temperatures should mainly be in the lower 30s north-central WI, middle to upper 30s elsewhere. Tuesday Night Through Monday A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather dry across the region for the middle part of the week.
Highs should be as much as 10- 15 degrees warmer today, which will be near or slightly above normal.
333 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry through Thanksgiving while a warming trend occurs.
As of 20Z, a surface cold front bisects the CWA, with northerly winds and a batch of low stratus to the north, and light winds, warmer temps to the south. The low stratus is approaching KABR, which would impact aviation. Warmer temperatures will move into the CWA behind the trough, surface warm front on Tuesday with highs likely reaching the lower 30s, in northeastern SD, to the upper 40s, in south central SD. Temperatures should remain mild Tuesday night due to increasing southerly winds and weak ridging aloft.
540 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 A transitory upper ridge is currently moving onto the Pacific Coast, which places Nebraska in broad northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure controls much of the Plains and Midwest, resulting in fair skies and light winds here.
626 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure over the southeastern and eastern US will remain through the short term. Moisture and warmer air will advect into the area. High temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s today. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s to low 40s. though the low levels will be very dry and should limit much precip reaching the ground Tuesday afternoon.
358 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2022 Dry weather and warmer than average temperatures will continue through Tuesday.
For temperatures, Tuesday's highs will be about 1 C warmer than today's readings. It would more likely yield low chances for snow showers/light accumulations for mainly the high country and a low chance for the adjacent plains/Palmer Divide Thurs AM.
849 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Thanksgiving. High pressure will dominate conditions for most of the overnight. WSW flow will continue to push in warmer 850mb temperatures. Due to this, morning minimums are expected to be several degrees warmer than the morning prior, though still remain 5-10 degrees below seasonal averages.
521 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Thanksgiving. Rain returns this weekend with crossing low pressure. High pressure will dominate conditions for most of the overnight. With WSW flow starting to push in warmer 850mb temperatures, morning minimums are expected to be several degrees warmer than this morning, though still remain 5-10 degrees below normal.
Otherwise, expect high pressure to persist for the next few days, bringing warmer temperatures back to the region.
A trough may bring a chance of precipitation and cooler temperatures late this weekend. Low clouds associated with the approaching trough will move in by tomorrow morning. Then, by tomorrow afternoon, a trough will pass to our north and bring moist air to the region and chances for some slight drizzle to the Del Norte coast.
305 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 As of 20Z, a surface cold front bisects the CWA, with northerly winds and a batch of low stratus to the north, and light winds, warmer temps to the south. The low stratus is approaching KABR, which would impact aviation. Warmer temperatures will move into the CWA behind the trough, surface warm front on Tuesday with highs likely reaching the lower 30s, in northeastern SD, to the upper 40s, in south central SD. Temperatures should remain mild Tuesday night due to increasing southerly winds and weak ridging aloft.
647 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will build over the region through mid week while a series of weak low pressure systems move off the Southeast U.
The weak upper-level ridge has begun to move into place over the Southwest U.
Broad troughiness across much of the country is giving way to a more zonal flow over the next 48 hours.
341 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 A transitory upper ridge is currently moving onto the Pacific Coast, which places Nebraska in broad northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure controls much of the Plains and Midwest, resulting in fair skies and light winds here.
It's expected to be swept away by an approaching trough that will bring high clouds to much of the forecast area. These high clouds will likely limit temperatures from falling below freezing tonight. With the increase in cloud coverage into the overnight hours low temperatures will be warmer than we have seen lately. Tomorrow upper level zonal flow will turn more southwesterly as a trough begins to dig across the western CONUS.
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure remains over the area into the middle of the week.
413 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 Cloud cover has expanded across the region this morning as a weak cold front pushed through. In areas that do see some clearing lows could dip into the low teens to single digits. Areas near Lake Superior though should only bottom out near 20F given the warmer lake's influence. Tuesday is expected to be the coolest day, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
949 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure remains over the area into the middle of the week.
222 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2022 Dry weather and warmer than average temperatures will continue through Tuesday.
330 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (Issued 330 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022) Tonight and Tuesday night: High pressure moves in tonight leading to a cold night with lows in the teens and lower 20s. Outside of some passing high clouds, forecast soundings do show the potential for some freezing fog to develop tonight. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer as warm air advection returns. Daytime highs will warm back to near-normal for this time of year, in the low/mid 40s across central WI and mid/upper 40s across southern WI.
We did extend the mention of flurries a little farther south to around the Highway 2 corridor based on current radar reflectivities. We do see some weak mid-upper level troughiness across the Dakotas and would not be surprised to see a brief shot of light snow or flurry activity track across the CWA, but the NBM pops are not picking up on this.
Discussion: A weak cold front has stalled near the I-35 corridor and only really distinguishable by the disruption in winds north of the front while southwesterly winds still prevail to the south of the front. The front has not had a noticeable impact to temperatures this afternoon with readings on both sides of the front in the lower to mid 50s. The front will washout by tonight as high pressure moves in overnight.
Dry air in the lower levels will greatly limit the chance for measureable rainfall.
A diffuse cold front is making it's way through our CWA this afternoon, and this is amounting to little more than a wind change from west to northwest as it moves through. The lack of snow cover in reality, as helped with heating and deeper mixing, resulting in 1 PM temperatures in the lower 40s north to near 50 central and south.
High temperatures again have overperformed guidance by a few degrees as everywhere has risen into the 50s with perhaps a few isolated locales making it into the low 60s by the end of peak heating. Overnight tonight will see low temperatures slightly warmer than the previous nights as overnight lows fall into the upper teens to low 20s. Guidance does show 850mb temperatures a bit warmer than today so with the temperatures over performing the past few days upped temperatures to the upper 50s to low 60s across the area.
629 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 Cloud cover has expanded across the region this morning as a weak cold front pushed through. In areas that do see some clearing lows could dip into the low teens to single digits. Areas near Lake Superior though should only bottom out near 20F given the warmer lake's influence. Tuesday is expected to be the coolest day, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
941 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 Onshore flow coupled with a moist coastal trough will continue to provide favorable conditions for isolated to scattered shower development tonight, especially over the Atlantic waters and along the coast. The clouds will also help keep temperatures a bit warmer than normal, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s across east central Florida.
238 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2022 Weakening high pressure will be present across the Northern Rockies through Tuesday. Recent increases in cloudiness have weakened area valley cold pools incrementally, however there is really no wind to push most valley temperatures to near or above freezing.
147 PM PST Mon Nov 21 2022 There will be be weaker winds with high clouds into Tuesday and with coastal areas a little cooler.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the 20s to near 30 degrees thanks to breezy conditions and increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching upper trough.
443 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (Tonight) Another chilly night is in store as high pressure overhead keeps mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Lows drop down into the lower 30s, which is still below normal, but 10 degrees warmer than last night.
Dry air in the lower levels will greatly limit the chance for measurable rainfall.
422 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2022 Mostly clear skies continue today and tonight as large-scale ridging remains over the region. Scattered high cirrus could keep lows a bit warmer, but continued to nudge the forecast towards persistence to capture the much-cooler-than-model-forecast lows that have been observed the past several mornings due to strong cold pools.
838 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will linger over the region through the middle of the week. Low pressure may approach the area from the southwest by later this week or weekend. High pressure will remain centered just to the south tonight. Tonight will not be as cold as last night since we had a warmer start, and a very light southerly wind will be present.
928 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure will build over the region through mid week while a series of weak low pressure systems move off the Southeast U.
929 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry through Thanksgiving while a warming trend occurs.
Elsewhere, cloud cover (though fairly high) should be able to keep lows from dropping much below the lower to mid 30s.
602 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry through Thanksgiving while a warming trend occurs.
658 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 High pressure remains over the area into the middle of the week.
502 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Current upper trough should transition to the east and flatten over the Southeastern U. Southerly flow in the lower-levels will maintain our warming trend bringing temperatures up to seasonably average for late November, with highs near to lower 60s by Tuesday afternoon. The mercury tonight in areas along and east of the I-44 corridor may rise a few degrees above freezing tonight/early Tuesday. Temperatures across few areas with fog may briefly drop to freezing, so can't rule out embedded freezing fog for a short period in some areas. Although mostly confined to our southern CWA, could also see patchy fog/freezing fog develop across northcentral Oklahoma as well.
105 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 A weakening cold front sags into the region through sunrise.
South-southwest winds return today under zonal flow aloft with lee troughing. Moisture depths increase to the lower few-several thousand feet Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day however ascent looks rather weak save a modified cold front moving in.