Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With temperatures region-wide getting above freezing there is a good chance that some of the snow pack will melt today, especially along the fringes, where snow depth is/was under 2 inches. Despite mid level ridging and persistent southwest flow at the surface those areas across far northern and northeastern Missouri will struggle to get into and through the 50s tomorrow.
Some passing high clouds can be expected as a ridge of high pressure aloft maintains quiet weather.
Will see lows in the lower to mid 40s for all areas except right along the immediate coast. High temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer than today.
622 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 An upper level trough moving across the area may produce an isolated shower through this evening.
Upper trof finally making its way east across Kentucky this afternoon, and while there is still plenty of cloud cover behind the trof the boundary layer is more mixy. Some weak radar returns noted along the trof axis, and with the shallow boundary layer, some light precip could still make it to the ground. Upper level ridging will settle over the eastern CONUS while a trough digs into the Intermountain West. Flow aloft will turn southwesterly between the trough and ridge, which will open the door for gulf moisture and warmth to be advected northward into the Ohio Valley.
/issued 250 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2020/ Upper northerly flow will give way to upper ridging by this evening. The upper ridge will move eastward through tomorrow while still having an impact on the region to help keep temps on the warm side tomorrow. An upper trough will begin to amplify across the West Coast tomorrow afternoon. A surface lee trough will develop ahead of the upper trough and provide breezy and elevated fire weather conditions.
The higher elevation areas of western and central Montana have been able to touch into those winds.
A large upper level ridge over the western CONUS will shift east with much warmer temperatures Sunday. Southwest sfc winds tend to help temperatures overachieve a little and went closer to warmer MOS guidance for temperatures/dew points.
Southwest winds will bring warmer temperatures into the region under mostly sunny skies on Sunday. Satellite imagery shows the drier air moving toward IL through the day, as the low clouds have been eroding to the east throughout the day. This trend will continue overnight, as the low level southwest flow brings in warmer air, with the upper level ridge axis advecting to the east, moving over the midwest. This shift in the upper level flow is a major pattern change, in that it becomes progressive, with a upper trough digging into the western U. and the upper ridge tracking to the east over the eastern sections on Sunday.
324 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2020 Current surface analysis shows warm front east of the area, with very mild conditions in place. Upper level analysis shows ridging across much of the western US, with a trough off the Pacific NW coast. Mild conditions will continue tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will move through late tonight and Sunday morning, with temperatures not rising much in most areas on Sunday.
525 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 (Today and tonight) Dry and warmer today with highs in the 60s across much of the fa which is above average for this time of year.
900 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Low clouds were finally starting to scatter out this evening in response to an upper level trough swinging across the region. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast moves northeastward as an upper trough over the eastern CONUS moves eastward off the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico and shifts eastward across the Gulf tomorrow. As cooler, drier air begins to filter in, lows tonight dip into the upper 30s over the Suwannee Valley to the mid 40s along the Atlantic coast.
The only thing working against this is the drier air situated in the low- levels, which suggests keeping precipitation chances minimal. If precipitation does overcome the drier air in the low levels, the areas that may see some flurries would likely be across western into central Wisconsin. As of now, running high temperatures in the 40s, with some of the known warmer spots (valleys) possibly nearing 50. Mild weekend gives way to colder, more seasonable air for the new work week as the upper level ridge is nudged east, replaced by a broad trough/northwest flow.
The cold front has pushed south and east of the forecast area, and the drier air moving in behind it will allow cloud cover to steadily decrease this evening and overnight tonight. Cold advection will bring a cool night to east central Florida with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s, except a couple of degrees warmer in Martin county. Northwest winds staying around 5 to 10 mph will make it feel pretty chilly toward morning with winds chill values dropping into the low 40s around sunrise. Otherwise, cloud cover will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast this evening and overnight as drier air works its way into the area behind today's cold front.
309 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 The main story this weekend is the upper ridge building over the northern Plains. This ridge has brought highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s to the forecast area. Mid to high clouds will continue to stream over the ridge through Sunday with overcast conditions returning through the afternoon Sunday as the ridge collapses. Warmer temps advecting in on the south to southwest sfc flow under the ridge will keep lows well above average tonight, and push highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday morning. As the ridge collapses in the afternoon, temps will fall back into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
715 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Cloudy skies will persist tonight with lows in the lower to middle 30s. Look for afternoon highs into the upper 40s over southern Lower Michigan to the lower 50s throughout northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
520 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 As of mid afternoon, temperatures had climbed into the low to mid 30s across the entire FA. However, the higher 925/850mb winds are dropping by Sunday morning.
/issued 224 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2020/ Cloud coverage continues to decrease as upper troughing shifts eastward. Upper ridging and high pressure will build into the region today leading to mostly dry and warm conditions through Sunday.
Thin cirrus will continue to spill over the upper level ridge over northern Mexico into south Texas tonight into Sunday morning. The ridge axis will move east of the area on Sunday as an upper low moves toward southern Baja California. Will see lows in the lower to mid 40s for all areas except right along the immediate coast. High temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer than today.
Current surface analysis shows warm front east of the area, with very mild conditions in place. Upper level analysis shows ridging across much of the western US, with a trough off the Pacific NW coast. Mild conditions will continue tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will move through late tonight and Sunday morning, with temperatures not rising much in most areas on Sunday.
645 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Another weak area of low pressure will pass by the area overnight and bring some light snow and perhaps a bit of drizzle.
A wonderful weekend for staying outside and enjoying the weather! Currently, a broad low amplitude ridge is building into the central CONUS. Some high clouds remain as the ridge continues to build into the area with some Pacific moisture spilling over. With the warmer airmass in place, lows only fall to the upper 30s. Right now, as heights rise, have pushed overall afternoon high temps to the low 70s into east central KS. As a result of this, think the overall fire weather concerns also remain in the high category mainly due to low RH values into the afternoon.
Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast moves northeastward as an upper trough over the eastern CONUS moves eastward off the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico and shifts eastward across the Gulf tomorrow. As cooler, drier air begins to filter in, lows tonight dip into the upper 30s over the Suwannee Valley to the mid 40s along the Atlantic coast.
The main story this weekend is the upper ridge building over the northern Plains. This ridge has brought highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s to the forecast area. Mid to high clouds will continue to stream over the ridge through Sunday with overcast conditions returning through the afternoon Sunday as the ridge collapses. Warmer temps advecting in on the south to southwest sfc flow under the ridge will keep lows well above average tonight, and push highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday morning. As the ridge collapses in the afternoon, temps will fall back into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
433 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2020 Current surface analysis shows warm front east of the area, with very mild conditions in place. Upper level analysis shows ridging across much of the western US, with a trough off the Pacific NW coast. Mild conditions will continue tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will move through late tonight and Sunday morning, with temperatures not rising much in most areas on Sunday.
The upper level ridge axis will move east of the area on Sunday as an upper low moves toward southern Baja California. Will see lows in the lower to mid 40s for all areas except right along the immediate coast. High temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer than today.
Northwest flow and a building ridge keeps the area dry with clear skies today with temps warming up into the lower to upper 60s.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period with passing high clouds as a broad mid level ridge resides aloft over the central part of the country.
1004 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 An upper level trough moving across the area may produce an isolated shower through this evening.
Precipitation along a cold front is starting to enter from the northwest.
1242 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 An upper level trough moving across the area may produce an isolated shower through this evening.
1006 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 (Today and tonight) Dry and warmer today with highs in the 60s across much of the fa which is above average for this time of year.
252 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 An upper level ridge building into the region on Sunday will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks with mostly clear skies.
High pressure will build from the west Today, then to the south Tonight.
300 AM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Mild, subtropical high pressure will then expand from the Gulf Coast states today across the Southeast states through mid-week.
324 AM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Mild, subtropical high pressure will then expand from the Gulf Coast states today across the Southeast states through mid-week.
255 AM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Mild, subtropical high pressure will then expand from the Gulf Coast states today across the Southeast states through mid-week.
Besides the high temperatures being influenced by the depth of the mixing today, the speed of the wind gusts will also be impacted.
As of mid afternoon, temperatures had climbed into the low to mid 30s across the entire FA. However, the higher 925/850mb winds are dropping by Sunday morning.
Early morning water vapor imagery and upper air analysis place longwave troughing from Canada southward across the eastern seaboard. Upstream of this trough, weak ridging was evident across the intermountain west and plains. Continued dry air advection in the wake of the trough will ultimately lead to clouds diminishing towards day break with mostly clear skies expected today across the entire area. Increasing upper level heights along with increasing thickness values will mean highs today should be warmer with highs forecast to reach near 60 degrees across most valley locations and mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Tonight should feature tranquil weather conditions as upper level ridging continues to dominate.
The temperatures across the higher elevations are cold enough for light snow generally above 4000 feet or so. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 30s.
347 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge over the western U. over the Rockies this morning with a deep trough on the east coast. The ridge heads east into the central and eastern U. 12z Mon with a trough moving into the Rockies. There could be a little freezing drizzle mixed in with the mixed pcpn this morning across the east half of the cwa.
In locations where the inversion has set up near valley bottoms wind is only around 5 kts while on ridge tops and plateaus the wind can suddenly jump to 35 to 40 kts. MRMS radar shows a row of echos over the southern Saskatchewan/Alberta border right behind the lower cloud deck moving in. The higher elevation areas of western and central Montana have been able to touch into those winds.
340 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the short term as weak ridging aloft moves overhead the region. As a result, have afternoon highs climbing into the low 60s for much of our area, which is well above seasonal norms for the beginning of February! Otherwise, expect breezy conditions to gradually diminish near sunset, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low 40s, as mostly clear skies help to enhance radiational cooling.
West southwest winds will increase today, bringing warmer temperatures to a majority of the local area. Low pressure will continue to shift towards the Great Lakes region from the far upper Midwest. This will increase winds today from the WSW, as gradients tighten with the closeness of the Low core. This will usher much warmer temperatures to the region today, as highs will climb into the 50s to near 60 across much of the mid- Mississippi and Ohio River Valley's. NW of the Illinois River will remain cooler, in the 40s, as snowpack continues to melt. leading to the cooler temps. Otherwise mostly clear skies will persist today, as weak High pressure ridges across the region. This week's weather will be driven by a large-scale Low pressure system that will develop and linger in the mountain west.
This high-level cloud cover appears to be optically thin, though there is no way to truly tell its exact depth. However, the intrusion of cirrus will have some implications on the elevated fire weather potential today as it may limit the degree of mixing in the low-levels due to the reduction of more intense adiabatic warming. High-level moisture should be more scant as the longwave trough from the Intermountain West noses into the region, enhancing the potential for deeper, vertical mixing.
543 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 The HRRR today has much cooler highs in the area where the soil is still well saturated from recently melted snowpack.
547 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 The impressive upper-level ridge over the central and western CONUS will keep temperatures much above normal today. This evening into the overnight hours, the large scale pattern will begin to change as a well-defined trough pushes onto the West Coast. Cooler air will begin to filter into the central Plains from Canada.
and a Pacific cold front will drop into Nebraska. The forecast Monday uses the short term model blend which places light snow across northwest Nebraska and a chance of freezing drizzle across north central Nebraska and the Sandhills.
Temperatures are expected to be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with the exception of along the coast where highs should remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will increase low level moisture, leading to slightly warmer temperatures tonight ranging in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The increased cloud coverage should help keep the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads on the cool side in the low to mid 70s, while farther west, temperatures should warm into the upper 70s.
357 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 The impressive upper-level ridge over the central and western CONUS will keep temperatures much above normal today. This evening into the overnight hours, the large scale pattern will begin to change as a well-defined trough pushes onto the West Coast. Cooler air will begin to filter into the central Plains from Canada.
This has helped mix some of the very warm air within the low level thermal inversion down to the ground. It's not easy to detect in the pressure pattern, but a low level CAA sequence has begun this morning that will continue all the way into Monday, as high pressure begins building southeastward into the CWA. While all this is going on, energy within the upper level longwave trof working onto the CONUS west coast will be organizing/diving down toward the Four Corners region. There will be no lack of mid/upper level moisture, forcing and lift streaming northeastward across the northern/central plains out of this deepening southwestern CONUS longwave trof. The problem is dry air entrainment (large temp/dewpoint depressions) with snow reaching the ground while the low levels continue to grow colder/drier on north-northeast boundary layer winds.
324 AM PST Sun Feb 2 2020 A weak Pacific trough will bring cooler conditions and light precipitation to the region today.
/Issued 314 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020/ A broad thermal ridge will allow for temperatures to rise near record levels today and Monday.
Gusty southwest winds will develop this afternoon and strengthen overnight as a cold front approaches.
402 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Moderation in daytime temps will begin today as each day should tack on a few degrees ahead of the next cold front.
955 AM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Mild, subtropical high pressure will expand from the Gulf Coast across the Southeast states through mid-week.
358 AM MST Sun Feb 2 2020 Broad, low amplitude ridging is persisting across the northern Plains, but is becoming more zonal ahead of an upper trough pushing into the NW Pac coast. A cold front will cross the CWA this afternoon/evening, with forcing aloft increasing as the trough crosses the Great Basin.
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the short term as weak ridging aloft moves overhead the region. As a result, have afternoon highs climbing into the low 60s for much of our area, which is well above seasonal norms for the beginning of February! Otherwise, expect breezy conditions to gradually diminish near sunset, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low 40s, as mostly clear skies help to enhance radiational cooling. Our region will get more solidly into the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system during the day Monday.
/issued 457 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020/ WV imagery shows weak upper ridging over the wrn CONUS, w/a fetch of high clouds calving off a closed low off the Baja coast. This may hinder daytime temps a bit, but only a bit, as SW sfc flow should yield highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Later today, an upper trough will make landfall on the west coast, and dig down to UT by 00Z Tue.
Today Through Monday Night Ridging/very dry air in place/west to southwest winds will make it feel like spring today. As this happens, there will be ridging from the mid-Atlantic states southward. A cold front will approach the region from the Plains as the period ends.
Temperatures are staying warmer than forecast so have adjusted min temperatures upward this morning. Another mild night is expected tonight with the cold front not moving in until later Monday morning.
707 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Latest RAP model has mid level ridging sliding east across the Gulf region while high pressure shifts from the western to central Gulf waters today. High pressure approaching from the western Gulf will maintain robust northwest winds.
The apex of the upper ridge moves into the Central Plains, with +14 to +16C H85 temperatures overspreading the area. The next system approaches on Monday, with a warm front sharpening and bisecting the forecast area. Expect a strong cold front to push through Monday evening, putting an end to the pleasantry. A slight chance of light showers will be possible as the front and associated low pressure push through the area Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Cold front continues to work its way through the Dakotas. Breezy to windy conditions continue over our area, with the highest wind speeds over northern portions of North Dakota. Temperatures will be notably cooler in the wake of the cold front, with some northern areas realizing their daytime highs early as cold air slides in.
The primary upstream trough was moving east into the Pacific Northwest at this writing, which will cross the Great Basin today and result in strong lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado. Surface winds will weaken and reduce afternoon mixing north of I-70 this afternoon but even southern areas see limited mechanical mixing in modest wind fields, so highs in the north should not be much cooler than to the south.
Area of snow will spread across the region this morning ahead of a warm front. Latest guidance suggests winds should remain below advisory levels in the higher terrain.
A thermal ridge will have developed across KS/OK east southeast through the TN valley with temps of 11-13C over our area. Temps will peak in the u50s atop the higher plateau areas. Temperatures will remain rather mild tonight as the ridges shift east allowing southerly flow to increase. in advance of the digging upper trof. This mainly due to the handling of the upper trough and associated frontal band.
512 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 We start out the day quite mild, but this will soon come to an end as a cold front makes its way south this afternoon and evening. This cold front will likely arrive early enough to shunt maximum heating potential, but south/southwest areas should be able to achieve maximum potential. Sounding profiles indicate the potential for freezing drizzle late tonight into mainly Monday morning, and possibly a little bit into the afternoon. Ongoing isentropic lift will give us a good chance of freezing drizzle for a good chunk of our CWA. Our far south may be just warm enough to have primarily drizzle rather than freezing drizzle.
The cold front that pushed through the Northern Rockies yesterday evening after the high wind event has been slowly moving south overnight through west-central Montana. This has allowed for much cooler temperatures to move in behind the front.
557 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 We start out the day quite mild, but this will soon come to an end as a cold front makes its way south this afternoon and evening. This cold front will likely arrive early enough to shunt maximum heating potential, but south/southwest areas should be able to achieve maximum potential. Sounding profiles indicate the potential for freezing drizzle late tonight into mainly Monday morning, and possibly a little bit into the afternoon. Ongoing isentropic lift will give us a good chance of freezing drizzle for a good chunk of our CWA. Our far south may be just warm enough to have primarily drizzle rather than freezing drizzle.
All locations are above the freezing mark, but range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. We will see mild and above normal temperatures for today as a ridge of high pressure builds in overhead. Moisture return will take place rather quickly on Monday as southwest flow strengthens over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The low level winds will be south to southwesterly today into this evening. A cold front, with shallow upslope flow behind it will move across the plains late this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle develop in some areas of the plains just before dawn Monday. Moisture associated with the upper trough begins pushing into the western CWA after midnight.
850 mb temps show a 10-15C rise from 00z Sunday to 00Z Monday, as a warm front lifts north and H5 heights increase an average of 150 meters.
404 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 The HRRR today has much cooler highs in the area where the soil is still well saturated from recently melted snowpack.