Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1151 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A cold front has now passed southeast of the central/SE Illinois forecast area with WNW winds and partial clearing across the area. Otherwise, much cooler tonight with lows in the lower 40s and some upper 30s in the colder air following the cold front. The departure of the cold front early this evening will signal the end of shower and thunderstorm chances in east central and southeast Illinois by 9 pm.
Mean troughing was over the northern and Central Plains per water vapor imagery. A few main waves were identified in this trough. Cold air advection ramps up tonight as a second cold front pushes in from the second wave. Weakening cold air advection and the mixing brings highs a few to several degrees cooler than today. Secondary upper trough axis lifts over the central plains into the Midwest regions by Friday evening. Operational guidance shows weak lift behind the cold front during the early evening period with the 12Z ECMWF developing light qpf along the trough axis.
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ Cold front that moved through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas last night and this morning has now shift into Central Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures across the CWA this afternoon were running slightly cooler than yesterday with 60s to low 70s common. slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday afternoon with breezy northwesterly winds. a weak upper low. some light precip could be possible mainly south of the Red River Valley and closer to the upper low over Texas.
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO FAR EAST TEXAS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY AND TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE.
Lower dew points behind the boundary will allow low temperatures to fall to within a few degrees of freezing near the Kansas and Missouri borders. /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ Cold front that moved through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas last night and this morning has now shift into Central Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures across the CWA this afternoon were running slightly cooler than yesterday with 60s to low 70s common. slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday afternoon with breezy northwesterly winds. a weak upper low. some light precip could be possible mainly south of the Red River Valley and closer to the upper low over Texas.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT /ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/ CONTINUES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY.
935 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AND THE BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS FARTHER WEST ALONG A COLD FRONT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH S TX TOWARD FRI MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH S TX THROUGH FRI. N WINDS WILL DVLP BEHIND THE BDRY AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES S. A H5 S/W TROUGH IS PROG TO ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA WITH A SURFACE FRONT ALSO STALLING ACROSS THE CRP/EWX CWA LINES.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEKEND.
935 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO FAR EAST TEXAS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY AND TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO FAR EAST TEXAS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY AND TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday's system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon.
654 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 The departure of the cold front early this evening will signal the end of shower and thunderstorm chances in east central and southeast Illinois by 9 pm.
710 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BE PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SHOWERS. /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK. LONGER TERM CHANGES COULD PLAY ON THE FORM OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN PACIFIC OFF COAST OF BAJA.
1105 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 /06Z TAFS/ Northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots will increase to 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, between 10z and 13z as a cold front moves through the area. /issued 301 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) As another upper level trough moves across Texas, showers may develop. The best rain chances are across the northwestern half of West Central Texas tomorrow, as the upper trough moves out of the Permian Basin and over West Central Texas.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA MOVES NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD.
COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CNTRL CANADA DOWN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED A CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX DROPPING SWD ACROSS CNTRL SD. EXPECT HIGHS SUN IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE N SUN NGT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TUE WILL TURN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BRISK SOUTH WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW BY LATE TUE. PUSHED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE PLAINS.
946 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 COLD FRONT EXITING THE REGION THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND LATE NIGHTS/THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEST OF TUCSON AS OF 20Z. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 The initial round of thunderstorms touched off by a ripple of energy ahead of the cold front was pushing east of the forecast area as of mid afternoon. The focus then turns to the broken line of thunderstorms developing along and just ahead of the cold front across south central and southwest Illinois. Mesoscale models tend to develop this line further south as the cold front progresses east across the area. RAP13 forecast soundings also show a layer of relatively warmer air in the 900-800 mb layer. In the wake of the cold front, overall cyclonic flow aloft will persist through late week.
644 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday's system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon.
WEAK FORCING AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST 6KFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE DETROIT AREA. TODAY AND TONIGHT SURFACE RIDGING TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LAYERED DRY/STABLE PROFILE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL TEMPER SLIGHTLY A GENERAL MODERATION OF THE EXISTING COOLER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE.
138 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL THEN DIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
350 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) A rather strong cold front has moved south of a San Angelo to Coleman line this afternoon, dropping temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big Country. Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with dewpoints hanging in the mid/upper 60s. This slow storm motion and the presence of the aforementioned cold front will support the potential for locally heavy rainfall along the I-10 corridor tonight. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated tomorrow, with highs in the 60s across most of the area.
LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
BUT WITH A COLD FRONT PEELING UP A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
338 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MEMORIAL DAY.
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SANDHILLS WHICH PROVIDES SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. KEEPING THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
131 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A KHHW /HUGO OKLAHOMA/ TO KDTO /DENTON/ TO KABI /ABILENE/ LINE AS OF 18Z. HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 21Z FOR THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM OKLAHOMA.
454 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING BACK UP INTO CENTRAL IA. RIDGE LOBES FLANKED THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LEE TROF SIDE LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW DPT INFLUX MAKING FOR EVAPO-COOLING MACHINE WITH THE PASSING RAIN SHEILD OFF THE VORT MAX PUSHING ACRS NW INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALL AFTERNOON LONG OR EVEN HAVE LOST GROUND-COOLED INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS FROM NW-TO-SE LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SFC WINDS TO BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PASSING SFC TROF AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STORMS WL COME IN VCTY OF GLH AROUND 17Z AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY WL MOSTLY AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN. A COLD FRONT WL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH CONVECTION. BUT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS IS BEING HINDERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE BULK OF ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (20-30KT) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES - WITH POPS EVENTUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS INTERACTING WITH A DRY LINE PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND OFF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES AFTER 00Z AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG IT AND WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST.
DUE TO OUR AREA LYING BETWEEN A NEBULOUS RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A MORE DISCERNIBLE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
1028 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 243 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
552 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015 Thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to develop along or near the cold front this evening. The cold front now extends near a line from Barnhart. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) A rather strong cold front has moved south of a San Angelo to Coleman line this afternoon, dropping temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big Country. Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with dewpoints hanging in the mid/upper 60s. This slow storm motion and the presence of the aforementioned cold front will support the potential for locally heavy rainfall along the I-10 corridor tonight. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated tomorrow, with highs in the 60s across most of the area.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE FAR INTERIOR UPPER 60S WITHIN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
255 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM TN TO THE CAROLINAS WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST AND OFF OF THE CAROLINAS BY THU EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER AND ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROF AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THU MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015 UPPER HIGH IS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
310 PM MST WED MAY 20 2015 A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE MD BORDER.
Unorganized low pressure systems moving through a large trof across the western U.
415 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN AT THE SURFACE SO DESPITE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERHEAD. A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF THIS PARENT UPPER LOW WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WET PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM FAR NW AR TO SOUTH CENTRAL OK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM NW AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
357 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WEAK 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS WHERE THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
MILDER TEMPS WITH MORE SUN AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACRS SRN WI.
352 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
355 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN THE FRONT DOOR IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW THIS MORNING. BUT THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH WILL LUMBER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE ARE STILL SET UP FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE TOO AS THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM TN TO THE CAROLINAS WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST AND OFF OF THE CAROLINAS BY THU EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER AND ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROF AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THU MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015 The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has resulted in increased instability across these areas and we already have some elevated convection developing just to the north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend area.
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN RIDGING WITH BETTER JET ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NW ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK TO NORTH TEXAS. 8 INCHES,LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C,AND A 350 PLUS 850 MB THETA RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST DELTA.
230 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
316 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 AFTN CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 82-85 DEGREES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING.
334 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. MODEST PV ADVECTION AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH 60-70 METER HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT DURING THIS TIME. ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR INVERTED TROUGH/PWAT RIDGE PIVOT (AMOUNTS LIGHT/LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST). MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SECONDARY PV ANOMALY WITHIN BROADER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST JUST OT HE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
/ISSUED 447 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT US OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY CURRENTLY OVER NE/SD. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.
203 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.