Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure was centered in Ontario, with the ridge axis stretching south through Michigan. The air mass continues to dry while mid level ridging is increasing aloft. Skies were clearing elsewhere, with cool temperatures area-wide in the lower 50s. The closest precipitation was well west, in Alberta and Saskatchewan, associated with low pressure. Lows will span a large range, with coastal areas mainly in the middle 30s to around 40F, while the low lying areas, especially across NE lower in the upper half of the 20s and lower 30s. The air mass remains dry through Monday, with a warm front blasting through the nrn Great Lakes.
Maliawco After a nice, unusually warm day for this time of year, forecast concerns now turn to the approaching cold front just off our NW zones and the resultant snow expected for tomorrow. Even now, the cold front has dropped southeast through Havre. Precip models are showing excellent agreement in setting up accumulating rain near the cold front tonight, then transitioning into a very narrow swath of rain/snow mix just behind the front.
726 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to bring fair weather through Monday.
/issued 457 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016/ Drier and slightly cooler air will to filter across Florida through tomorrow, as a frontal boundary continues to push south over the region.
-TSRA will be included for a short time early in forecast period as upper trough approaches from the Panhandles. /issued 951 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ Lift will increase overnight into early Monday as a trough/low moves from southern Colorado into the Central Plains. TSRA will be included at KGAG/KWWR as upper trough approaches.
TSRA will be included at KGAG/KWWR as upper trough approaches.
Meanwhile, low pressure was moving eastward through south central Canada. A warm front extended southeastward into western South Dakota. The warm front is forecast to move northeastward this evening and reach the Arrowhead/Canada border area by 06Z/1am. On Monday, the warm front is into Ontario while low pressure gets organized in the Dakotas. An inverted trof will be over northeast Minnesota through much of the day. With the 850mb temps into the teens, will see max temps well into the 60s, with a few spots in the lower 70s.
/This evening through Monday/ Early morning subjective 12z H850 analysis and 13z sfc analysis shows ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes at the surface with a rather expansive ridge aloft from Lake Superior southwest to Texas. Leftovers of Matthew are still situated near the North Carolina/Virginia coastlines while over the western conus there is a large trough beginning to progress to the east. By later tonight the ridge will drift east as a southern stream short wave near the Colorado border this morning moves east northeast toward Iowa.
Max temps were some 5-11 degrees above normal on Sun as strong high pressure dominates the region.
/issued 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ Light showers have been moving across the forecast area for most of the day thanks to energy spun off from an upper trough lifting over the Four Corners. This trough is evident on IR satellite this afternoon moving into western CO, and the brunt of the energy from this trough will pass across CO and KS overnight.
High pressure centered in Wisconsin is making slow progress southeast today, resulting in light east winds, mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures in the lower to upper 60s as of mid afternoon. With the high pressure moving to around Ohio by morning, winds will gradually swing around to the southeast overnight. Thus, I will go on towards the cool side of guidance, with the lows in the lower to mid 40s in most locations, with upper 40s southwest where winds may remain at or above 5 mph overnight. Monday, warm advection and south winds will increase through the day as low pressure develops in the plains. Highs Monday will climbed to levels warmer than the past few days despite the increasing clouds as the warm advection and winds increase through the day.
The high clouds will begin to scatter out overnight/Monday morning as the trough axis moves east of the region. /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ We have had another quiet weather day across North and Central Texas today with an upper level ridge to our south dominating the weather across the region.
640 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Ridge axis extends from near Springfield MO to St. Overnight lows will likely be a little warmer Monday morning than they were this morning due to the increasing southerly flow. Speaking of clouds, moisture aloft should be increasing steadily and the trof over Colorado will be moving into the Great Plains. The GFS and NAM throw a wave of vorticity out from this trof over us during the afternoon and both produce some isolated light rain showers.
1138 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Ridge axis extends from near Springfield MO to St. Overnight lows will likely be a little warmer Monday morning than they were this morning due to the increasing southerly flow. Speaking of clouds, moisture aloft should be increasing steadily and the trof over Colorado will be moving into the Great Plains. The GFS and NAM throw a wave of vorticity out from this trof over us during the afternoon and both produce some isolated light rain showers.
Ridging continues across Eastern Conus with fairly light pressure gradients across Alabama and little cloud cover as of now on satellite except for a little cirrus far south. VFR conditions through the period as a result of the broad sub-tropical ridge to the south and strong surface continental high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. A few cirrus clouds streaming around the subtropical ridge will have no impact to aviation concerns.
At the surface, high pressure centered to the northeast had the winds across our CWA from the northeast to east. During this period, the upper level high will move off to the east and a shallow trough will move across Texas. The trend from tonight to Monday night will be warmer.
Breezy to windy, and warmer as the west flow aloft strengthens and 700 mb temperatures peak near 8 Celsius. Next cold front sags southward across our northern counties after midnight. Boundary layer progs suggest areas of fog along and behind the cold front over our northern counties.
1043 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Cool high pressure will build into the region. Generally clr skies expected overnight as high pressure builds into the area from the NW. Look for early morning lows in the lower to middle 40s inland to mid 50s at the coast.
625 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 An area of low pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan will track across southern Canada tonight through Monday. This low will bring a warm front across the region, along with gusty southerly winds.
953 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Cool high pressure will build into the region. Generally clr skies expected overnight as high pressure builds into the area from the NW. Look for early morning lows in the lower to middle 40s inland to mid 50s at the coast.
The pressure gradient between Post-Tropical Storm Matthew and the high pressure building in from the west continues to weaken as the evening progresses. Current temps are still in the lower 70s but with the clear skies and diminishing winds, expect the temps to fall quickly the next few hours. With the cooler and drier air in place, lows should fall into the 40s areawide and would not be surprised to see a few upper 30s in isolated locations, similar to last night. An upper level ridge currently situated to our west over the ArkLaTex region will move overhead on Monday. Upper level heights increase slightly as the ridge builds and should result in a degree or two of warming in temps for Monday.
An area of low pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan will track across southern Canada tonight through Monday. This low will bring a warm front across the region, along with gusty southerly winds.
1003 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Low pressure forming near the Mid Atlantic coast will pull moisture north then track south and east of our region tonight.
Temperatures expected to be a tad warmer overnight due in part to passing cloud cover. Lows by morning anywhere from 2-5 deg f warmer than those last night. Could see a few gusty storms form over the higher terrain within the CWA after 21z. New guidance anywhere from 1-3 degs cooler.
1218 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2016 Low pressure forming near the Mid Atlantic coast will pull moisture north then track south and east of our region tonight.
919 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather through mid week.
Coverage is still low in coverage but a few thunderstorms could develop and move into our southern CWA, and then isolated showers are shown to remain possible (generally south of I-70) through tonight as the main upper low transitions across the region. The short wave trough currently over the 4-corners region will track across southeast Colorado and into western Kansas this evening and into north central Kansas by Monday morning.
Expect southerly flow to continue for this afternoon into this evening, as a lee trough develops along the front range of the Rockies. As this system moves east, it will push another sharp cold front south across KS for Tue afternoon into Tue night. Cold front will make steady progress into OK early on Wed. Ketcham Some uncertainty on how the end of the week will play out, as moisture rapidly returns to the plains on the backside of the ridge.
High pressure will settle over the region this week providing cooler and dry weather. Dew point are falling into the low to mid 40s. This airmass will provide the CSRA and Midlands with the coolest temperatures since last spring with lows mainly in the 40s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.
855 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Weakening winds, along with clear skies under high pressure, are setting up another night of radiational cooling. Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s into the lower 50s across the forecast area due to this radiational cooling. So, decreased the low temperatures overnight into the lower to mid 40s to accommodate current temperature trends. High pressure exiting the Great Lakes region and low pressure approaching from the Great Plains will lead to a tightening pressure gradient over Lake Michigan on Monday.
839 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure will continue across the CWFA overnight. they are a bit warmer than the diurnal curve has depicted. /Issued 307 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016/ Nice quiet fall like weather pattern will persist through the short term as high pressure remains parked over the eastern third of the country. The cool dry air mass will result in cooler than normal lows tonight and Monday night. 20 Mid level ridge axis will extend up Eastern Seaboard. while at the sfc a ridge will extend down the Appalachians into Ga as high pressure centers over New England.
Latest streamline analysis shows an anticyclone across the Baja Peninsula drifting northward in the wake of a trough across the southern Rockies that produced isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain of northern and eastern Arizona Sunday afternoon. Mainly clear skies prevailed across the lower deserts Sunday and the high temperature reached 97 degrees in Phoenix for the third straight day.
933 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Update High pressure will continue to bring fair weather through Monday.
858 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Mid and high level cloudiness associated with a short wave trough translating into the Southern Plains continues to stream into the area from the southwest.
1058 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Upper flow over the northern CONUS is nearly zonal, with an upper trough off the Pac NW coast. Low-level trough is crossing the region with a warm front. Flow will become more southwesterly tonight, as trough comes onshore. Late in the afternoon, a strong cold front will begin crossing the area. Lows will range from the lower 30s across northwestern SD and parts of northeastern WY, to the lower 40s across south central SD.
High pressure will settle over the region this week providing cooler and dry weather. This airmass will provide the CSRA and Midlands with the coolest temperatures since last spring with lows mainly in the 40s and highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Ridging continues across Eastern Conus with fairly light pressure gradients across Alabama and little cloud cover as of now on satellite except for a little cirrus far south. Broad sub-tropical ridge to the south combined with strong surface continental high pressure dominating eastern third of the CONUS will result in VFR conditions entire period. A few cirrus clouds on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will have no impact to aviation concerns.
927 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Canadian high pressure will build across the northern Mid- Atlantic tonight and Monday before shifting offshore during the middle of the week.
The front will be exiting the region Monday morning with precipitation decreasing and cooler dry conditions behind it.
/Issued 858 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ Mid and high level cloudiness associated with a short wave trough translating into the Southern Plains continues to stream into the area from the southwest.
/issued 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over NW NM/SW CO, and poised to pass north of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico overnight. Otherwise, after tonight's trough passes, zonal flow aloft develops over the region as an upper ridge develops over Mexico and South Texas the next few days.
959 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Cold front will dip south into the Northern Plains tonight. Associated mid level S/WV trough moving through far southern Canada will bring a chance of showers to the northwest and north central momentarily, continuing overnight. Latest water vapor imagery and surface map shows broad ridging across the northern high plains with strong low level warm advection continuing. A cold front currently in far southern Saskatchewan, bowing into north central Montana will continue to advance southeast tonight.
Fog is developing across much of the area this evening, however the lowest visibilities remain confined to the area already under the adv.
The low clouds and reduced visibilities should stick around through late morning. /Issued 420 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ Upper low currently seen on WV imagery across NRN Baja will split into two pieces of energy as it approaches wrn Texas.
319 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will build in behind exiting low through today. This high extending down the east coast from Canada will shift farther off the coast through mid week.
The primary feature of interest in the short term is a low- latitude trough which is evident in early-afternoon water vapor imagery over Baja. This upper-air system will continue east through the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico tonight into Sunday before phasing with a polar-branch disturbance over the High Plains Sunday night.
349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue to move east today. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through midweek.
110 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 An upper level trough will exit the area later this morning.
353 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Midlevel clouds associated with a departing upper level low quickly dissipated early this morning. Otherwise, an amplified upper level ridge axis will move over the Midsouth today, with temperatures warming to readings 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
440 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Short wave exiting the CWA and rapid improvement will occur this morning with an H5 ridge building over the CWA through the short term.
/issued 302 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ Upper level low center pivoting in Western Kentucky this hour.
1008 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday, especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. The upper level low which brought some light showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into the area from the west later today and tonight.
The lower ceilings should keep visibilities from dropping down into the LIFR range.
High cloud becoming more persist into western and central Kansas ahead of southern stream upper low. Precip chances increase this evening as the upper low weakens as it enters the Southern Plains.
357 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 It looks like another early morning with unseasonably mild overnight minimum temperatures remaining near or above freezing across most of the area. Light and variable winds across central and north central Minnesota have allowed for some patchy fog or freezing fog in places. All of this in response to the approach of a low pressure system which is just beginning to develop off the front range of the rockies. A warm frontal cloud band of mainly mid to upper level clouds should thicken in over the area through midday. The approaching low pressure system and overall increasing warm and moist advection today should produce increasing lower clouds this evening.
957 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 A deep upper trough covers the west coast, with ridging over the northern plains. Warm air advection will continue Sunday in southwest flow ahead of the approaching western CONUS trough. As the trough moves through the region Sunday night, a cool front and showers will push into the area. Most of the precipitation is expected to be rain, but some light snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations.
253 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Early morning objective surface analysis indicated the ridge axis now extended over the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley with a lee trough developing from eastern CO into WY.
Strong lift from the upper low that devastated California will begin to spread over the region later this morning.
255 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 An upper level trough will exit the area later this morning.
Still appears that as the system moves east it will slow as southern part of trough develops a closed low across northern Texas.
1141 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday, especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. The upper level low which brought some light showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into the area from the west later today and tonight.
138 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cool front will drop south through the region today followed by slightly cooler air.
Trimmed PoPs for today as ascent from the approaching upper trough won't arrive until tonight and fcst soundings show relatively dry moisture profiles and a capping inversion in place for most of the day. Moisture increase rapidly tonight as an upper level trough approaches West Texas.
Looks like temperatures across SW Arkansas and SE Oklahoma are running a little cooler than anticipated. Upper low has moved across MS river valley and eastward across TN, with low clouds slowly eroding across ne TX as trailing wk warm frontal boundary movg nwd. Increased se winds and deepening southerly flow will disrupt these conditions durg early mrng and with amplified short wave ridging ovhd, expect a rapid warmup Sunday with highs either side of 80 degrees for all but mainly OK/AR portions of area what may remain in the 70s. Deep upper trough will produce a well defined axis of mstr and instability running north to south, reaching extreme western CWA by eve, although a few stray cells possible out ahead of axis.
Upper low is finally pulling off to the northeast with earlier showers having almost entirely dissipated. Conditions will improve after 12Z the atmosphere dries out and an upper ridge builds over the region.
The upper level low is located in southwestern Arizona this morning and is expected to track towards the 4 corners. As the upper level low opens up as it crosses the area, the region will be placed in northwest flow.
The upper trough axis will shift east of the region this morning, and skies will clear from north to south through the day. Upper level heights will then build through the period ahead of another trough digging across the intermountain west, desert southwest, and northern Mexico. High pressure will build into the region today, with light northwesterly winds. High pressure will then build towards the eastern seaboard across the eastern conus tonight, and winds will slowly veer to the northeast. Highs today will be in the low 70s along the east coast, and the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the region. Lows tonight are forecast to be near 50 to the lower 50s across the interior and the mid to upper 50s along the east coast.
Added back in some low POPs across the northern half of the area this evening as a weak wave rotating around the exiting upper low is managing to squeeze out some light showers from the limited, shallow moisture over the area. Otherwise the main forecast concern into the overnight before the upper trough axis can push east will be with lingering low level moisture and if areas of fog develop. We will have quite the pleasant Sunday on tap given a quick transition to subsident driven clearing by mid morning thanks to strong ridging. it will be hard to believe it's a mid Feb day with many locations progged to reach the low 70s.
Looks like temperatures across SW Arkansas and SE Oklahoma are running a little cooler than anticipated.
This force the upper low over the desert SW to open up as it lifts into the cntl/srn rockies today, while mid level ridge amplification occurs across the upper Midwest.
The light west to northwest wind will precede high pressure during the day with only a mix of high clouds maintaining favorable aviation conditions into Sunday evening. It's more easily picked up on water vapor imagery as drier and cooler air aloft with more northwesterly flow advects into the region. Overall the longwave pattern changes little through Sunday as strong trough over the west coast keeps re-building and strengthening the ridge over the central plains.
Moist advection from the south will lead to areas of fog and low clouds this morning, as a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Deep moisture transport and large scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will support increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms from the southwest this evening, spreading northeast overnight. The warmest days of the week will likely be Tue and Wed with highs in the mid- upper 70s (~25 degrees above normal), as upper ridging increases from the west, and dry southwest low-level flow persists.
1023 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper low lifting into nrn AZ this afternoon, with deepening S-SW flow across much of CO. Overnight, upper low will move slowly northward through AZ, with moisture gradually increasing across srn CO. Clouds and increasing sly wind will lead to another mild night across the region, with many locations on the plains staying above freezing. On Sunday, upper low weakens and accelerates eastward from nrn AZ across CO, with remnant upper trough exiting the state early Mon morning.
Dense Fog This Morning Over the Nature Coast and West Upper low spinning over the Carolinas this morning with last vort max producing light showers as it wraps over the area through this morning.
The best chances for thunderstorms today appear to exist over the Atlantic waters where the warmer waters of the Gulf stream and the potential mid and upper level support from the trough are potential ingredients. High pressure will build in across the area to start the week.
Deep layer high pressure will prevail over the southeast today.