Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong upper level ridge building over the region accompanied by drier and warmer air aloft. Temperatures also running ahead of yesterday at this time with many locations anywhere from 6-10 deg F warmer. Dry air over Colorado as the upper ridge axis is over the state. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer today, with a few shallow Cumulus clouds over the mountains in the afternoon. An upper ridge axis is over the CWA on Saturday.
TFJ A highly amplified upper level ridge presently across the western CONUS will gradually shift east over the next couple of days. Any convective activity that develops upstream of the CWA should remain mostly to the west on Saturday afternoon with the ridge axis still extending into eastern Montana at that time. Upper ridge over the intermountain west will slide into the plains over the weekend with west coast trof splitting as it moves onshore.
Upper level ridge axis was located over the North American Rockies will shift over the eastern Dakotas by 12Z Mon. Warm today ahead of cold front/wind shift. Then cooler for the next 84 hours.
satellite showing large upper level low approaching the coast with a slow moving frontal boundary over the region. Much cooler temperatures today and Saturday as well.
Nice cooler/drier air works across the region with the High, with 70s/50s becoming the norm the next couple days.
Surface analysis this evening places a cold front over Middle Tennessee, Northern Alabama, and Central Mississippi. /issued 250 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ A cold front continues to slowly push southeastward through Northeast Mississippi. Clearing will continue to take place behind the departing cold front.
1000 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 Weak cold front continues to push across the mid-state this evening.
Tonight and Monday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure centered over the western Upper Peninsula and an occluded front extending southeast into lower Michigan. Deeper moisture will continue to wrap around the southern periphery of the low, causing skies to remain broken to overcast over the region. Low temps falling into the low to mid 40s. The combination of a slow moving cold front, deep upper trof and surface wave developing along the boundary, will result in periods of showers through midweek.
822 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Periods of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible with the passage of a cold front overnight.
A narrow cold frontal rain band continues to push east this afternoon, with scattered showers slowly becoming more common east of I-65. The cold front will usher in cooler, less humid air for the rest of the short term. Skies will gradually clear out from west to east this afternoon into tonight, with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. Monday will start sunny and become partly sunny later in the day, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Most areas will stay dry Monday night, with lows again in the low to mid 50s.
Weak cold front continues to push across the mid-state this evening.
Skies will clear from south to north this evening with loss of daytime heating, and the upper low currently over northern Minnesota edges northward. A piece of energy from an upper low over northern Saskatchewan tonight, and will swing southeast around the Minnesota low on Monday.
around an upper level low centered over the western Great Lakes this morning.
Instability was relatively weak with cape values 200-400j/kg, with the highest cape over the east. Freezing level drops to around 9 thousand feet late tonight and would expect a few inches of snow accumulation in the higher peaks late tonight and Monday morning.
713 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Dry conditions are expected tonight and Monday as high pressure moves into the region.
This activity is primarily being driven along an axis of 320 to 325K isentropic ascent, assisted by a 500mb short wave trough digging out of the Inter-mountain West. After midnight, as the low level jet increases and boundary layer winds shift more out of the south and southeast, increasing low level moisture, precipitation chances will increase across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma through Sunrise.
An upper trough tracking east out of the central and southern Rockies will allow for isolated to widely scattered convection mainly over the northwestern portions of the Panhandles early but then spreading south and east across the remainder of the forecast area by 12Z Monday. The cold front will track across the Panhandles Monday night as convection lingers across much of the Panhandles through Monday night.
934 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Periods of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible with the passage of a cold front overnight.
any shower activity should be limited to the higher elevations in east TN by mid morning tomorrow. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 78 61 76 / 40 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 77 58 75 / 50 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 78 60 77 / 40 10 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 75 57 75 / 40 20 30 30.
The main forecast concern will be on Monday as a frontal boundary and upper level trough dive into the region. Freezing levels are fairly low at around 7 kft.
Light winds and widespread cloud cover across southwest Minnesota may hold temperatures a bit cooler tonight. Therefore, lows temperatures will be in the lower 40s across southwest Minnesota, to upper 50s along the Missouri River Valley. These areas could see temperatures in the lower 70s. Mid-level trough axis will work to clear northwest Iowa Monday evening, and coverage and intensity of shower and isolated thunder activity will quickly drop off.
Stable, dry conditions this evening with upper ridge building into the Pac NW. Clouds mainly on the Idaho side this afternoon will clear tonight as weak upper trough moves away to the east.
With weak subsidence in place due to the high in the low levels, some resultant drying and warming occurring due to that subsidence around 850mb, and a lack of decent low level instability the formation of showers and thunderstorms near the launch site has been suppressed today.
Effective shear is not particularly strong however adequate for a few rotating updrafts around 35 kts, becoming a bit stronger as the upper trough axis dips southward into eastern KS.
811 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Periods of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible with the passage of a cold front overnight.
A broad low pressure system over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will remain an active influence for our region this week.
This movement should keep the far western forecast area and extreme southern valley dry throughout the evening and into the overnight before the low begins to retrograde a bit back towards our area. Will have to keep an eye on temperatures as we head into the overnight as readings are still hanging into the low to mid 50s (with the exception of the cooler 40s across the far east). The center of the low is advancing north this mid aftn into the arrowhead region and this upper low will move north into Ontario then west and back south into north central MN Monday aftn. Scattered rain showers will continue around the upper low. though some sunny breaks DVL region into SE ND should push that area into the low 60s vs 50s elsewhere.
In the east - an upper closed low continues to circulate/spin along the Ontario/Minnesota border.
Weak surface ridging will slide through central Iowa during the later half of the evening as warm advection begins overnight. Given relatively low freezing levels and inverted-V soundings, both large hail and some strong winds will be possible with any of the stronger cells. Temperatures will be warmer on Monday with a thermal ridge quickly moving back into the state as southwest winds increase late tonight into tomorrow. /Monday night through Sunday/ The cold front will continue to cross the forecast area Monday evening and current trends keep it in the southeast through much of the overnight as well.
821 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 The slow moving cold front is now along a line from Murfreesboro SW to around Corinth with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. This system will move to the NE thanks to SW flow around the parent upper low, and this will translate to showers/storms moving back into the area by Monday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers will be associated with this trough and focus on the northern two thirds of the area, generally north of a line from Moab to Montrose to Gunnison.
Closer to the ground the winds will become offshore overnight with overnight lows five to ten degrees warmer than last night, with ridge temperatures remaining warmer than in the valleys. With this warmer start to the day, and the upper ridge building over the region, current forecast highs look on track and will not update this evening. A ridge of high pressure is building over the PacNW this afternoon, and offshore flow has not only pushed stratus off the coast, but it is also evaporating pretty quickly over the waters as well.
/issued 250 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ A cold front continues to slowly push southeastward through Northeast Mississippi. Clearing will continue to take place behind the departing cold front.
Humidity and warmer temperatures return by weeks end as low level southerlies become re-established underneath low amplitude SW flow aloft, with rain chances coming back SUN as a front tries to sag into the area. 13 Light east to southeast winds are expected to prevail for the next couple of days as a cold front stalls out near the coast.
Ceilings will lower later this evening and overnight as a warm front begins lifting north. A warm front will move through overnight with low cloud cover persisting into the afternoon hours across much West Central Texas. Mainly isolated light showers are expected Monday the warm front moves through, but scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon, mainly north of I-10, as a upper disturbance moves southeast in northwest flow aloft. (Monday Night through Sunday) A little drier conditions on Monday and a little warmer temperatures will allow for better instability to develop and spread northward.
Thus sct showers and an isold tstm will continue over the higher terrain and plains through midnight and then begin to shift southward thereafter with activity ending before 12z. A large upper low over the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region and an upper ridge nosing into the Pacific Northwest through the period will keep northwesterly flow aloft. Low temperatures tonight will remain below normal, with readings likely slightly warmer over the southern half of the forecast area due to cloud cover hanging on. High temperatures will be similar to today before a cold front pushes south across the area late afternoon to early evening. Over the high country, snow levels are expected to dip down to near 9000 feet tonight then back up to 10000 feet Monday.
Tonight through Monday night: Local radars are lit up across central Mississippi late this afternoon as a line of strong to severe storms has formed along a weak cold front that will drift southeast through the remainder of the CWA this evening. This activity should end well before midnight but the cold front will stall just south of the CWA.
The cold front that sparked thunderstorms earlier this evening will move east of central Kentucky after midnight, taking its convection with it. A narrow cold frontal rain band continues to push east this afternoon, with scattered showers slowly becoming more common east of I-65. The cold front will usher in cooler, less humid air for the rest of the short term. Skies will gradually clear out from west to east this afternoon into tonight, with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. Monday will start sunny and become partly sunny later in the day, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Most areas will stay dry Monday night, with lows again in the low to mid 50s.
726 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front crosses tonight.
An upper level ridge will give one more sunny and warm day Monday.
1044 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will move east through the area tonight. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. Cold front will continue to move east through the remainder of the eastern half of the CWFA through 06Z, or 2 am. Skies should become partly cloudy behind the front with drier and cooler air filtering into the region. This high will offer drier conditions and temperatures a little below normal. Mondays highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
1143 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 (Tonight) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the bi-state region late this afternoon. This should leave the CWFA clear to mostly clear overnight tonight with high pressure across southern Missouri in control. Should be quite a cool night with favorable conditions for raditional cooling in close proximity to sfc anticyclone. Louis in the low 50s. Temperatures on Monday should be quite a bit warmer than that of today for most of the area with south/southwest winds expected at the surface along with 850-hPa temperatures rising to around +10C.
714 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure in Canada will crest over the area tonight and move east Monday.
Ongoing evolution to broad cyclonic flow over the CONUS will successfully break hold of high pressure nearby. High pressure over the western Atlc continues a weakening trend with the approach of a surface front that will extend from the mid Atlc States through the Deep South by sunrise Tue morning.
Clouds have diminished across most of the CWA but a few remain closer to the low across northeast Nebraska and much of western Iowa. The northern Utah impulse will drive east through the High Plains while the Canadian impulse dives south across the Northern High Plains Monday. Surface dewpoints are forecast in the mid 50s south of an afternoon cold front, generally south of I- 80 where instability will be greatest. Behind this, the region will remain in strong northwesterly flow both aloft and at the surface as the upper low continues to move slowly south/southeast.
742 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Aviation A large upper trough will camp out over the Great Lakes much of this week keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal However, by the end of the week, the trough will move east and temperatures will rise as we head into the holiday weekend. We should see dry weather through Monday before a short wave rotates around the bottom of the upper trough.
702 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure currently over southeast Kansas will move through southern Missouri tonight and Monday.
Temperatures on Monday will remain well above normal well inland and across the deserts, but cooler temperatures are likely near the coast and into the western valleys due to the strengthening of the marine layer.
908 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 A persistent band of strato-cumulus clouds will continue to erode from south to north as the upper low in N Minnesota lifts farther away into Canada. Skies will clear from south to north this evening with loss of daytime heating, and the upper low currently over northern Minnesota edges northward. A piece of energy from an upper low over northern Saskatchewan tonight, and will swing southeast around the Minnesota low on Monday.
947 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will push east from the Ohio Valley and pass through PA on Monday. generally along and east of 35 to 40 kt 850 mb jet and elongated shearing upper trof crossing the region. The showers are butting into the western periphery of sharp upper ridge located just east of the region. Pressure barely dips and does not reach 1012mb along the frontal trough.
1018 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 The evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has slipped S to along the TX Coastal Plains and the LA coast this evening, although the drier air lags the front a ways over Cntrl and Deep E TX into the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA. Given the high FFG values and lack of rain received the last couple of days across much of these areas, will not be issuing a Flash Flood Watch tonight as these areas should have little problem absorbing these rains.
740 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will push east from the Ohio Valley and pass through PA on Monday. Elongated upper trof is shearing further as it ascends the highly amplified upper ridge just east of the Commonwealth. Pressure barely dips and does not reach 1012mb along the frontal trough.
948 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will drift across eastern Canada through Monday. The associated cold front will slide across the area tonight.
1022 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure moves east of the area today. A series of low pressure systems will impact the area through the week, resulting in periods of unsettled weather. Light rain will gradually end as the low moves SE of Long Island.
1133 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will push east from the Ohio Valley and pass through PA on Monday. generally along and east of 35 to 40 kt 850 mb jet and elongated shearing upper trof crossing the region. The showers are butting into the western periphery of sharp upper ridge located just east of the region. Pressure barely dips and does not reach 1012mb along the frontal trough.
A broad upper level trough over Minnesota will continue impacting the eastern CWA through this evening with mostly cloudy skies and breezy northwesterly winds. The biggest question for tonight is whether or not frost forms in the low lying areas of the James River valley and points east. Several areas west of the Missouri River valley saw low temperatures last night in the lower 30s, which could be possible for the James River valley tonight.
Looking aloft, westerly flow prevails to the south of deep troughing over central NOAM. A small PV anomaly currently rounding the base of the larger scale upper trough over UT, and another larger PV max diving south out of Canada will bring changes to our sensible weather over the next 48 hours.
704 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
734 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will move east through the region early this evening offering scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. Associated surface cold front pushing east through eastern IN. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing across eastern Indiana/western Ohio in the marginally unstable airmass ahead of this cold front. Drier air and clearing will provide cooler temperatures overnight. This high will offer drier conditions and temperatures a little below normal. Mondays highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
1142 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 Strong upper low was located across the upper Mississippi valley region early this afternoon. At the surface, a front pushed through the area yesterday and much drier air has pushed into the region, bringing a clear sky and cooler temperatures.
20" across the Northland, with the highest amounts expected over north-central Minnesota.
723 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will push east from the Ohio Valley and pass through PA on Monday. Elongated upper trof is shearing further as it ascends the highly amplified upper ridge just east of the Commonwealth. Pressure barely dips and does not reach 1012mb along the frontal trough.
609 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor animation showed our region wedged between a vigorous upper low over the Upper Midwest and a stout upper ridge off the Pacific coast. High temperatures Monday will be a tad cooler across the northern CWA with the fropa during the morning.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the PacNW this afternoon, and offshore flow has not only pushed stratus off the coast, but it is also evaporating pretty quickly over the waters as well.
Low clouds continue to scatter out across the TN Valley this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Like yesterday, gusty/damaging winds will be the primary threat if something can get going, with a lesser threat for small hail due to a fairly high freezing level ~13kft. This system will move to the NE thanks to SW flow around the parent upper low, and this will translate to showers/storms moving back into the area by Monday afternoon.
There be may patchy low clouds later tonight into early morning Monday morning as indicated by some of the high-res models but confidence is low as there will be considerable mid and high clouds so have opted to continue to go with prevailing VFR.
/12/ Prior discussion below: up across central Mississippi late this afternoon as a line of strong to severe storms has formed along a weak cold front that will drift southeast through the remainder of the CWA this evening. This activity should end well before midnight but the cold front will stall just south of the CWA.
SHowers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop for areas east of I-65 late this afternoon, as a weak cold front currently approaching I-65 presses eastward. Dry high pressure will be centered along the Ohio River, extending south into Mid Tn.
Low pressure center has reached Western Upper Michigan this afternoon. with the associated cold front now extending from the low thru Lower Michigan. leaving our area mainly dry but still mostly cloudy as residual low clouds hang over the area despite the arrival of the dry slot behind the cold front. deep cyclonic flow under the upper low center and under the upper level cold pool.
1156 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure in Canada will crest over the area tonight and move east Monday.
1009 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure in Canada will crest over the area tonight and move east Monday.
This band will press eastward and diminish through the morning as the upper trough progresses eastward.
345 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Late season cold front was moving through the region early this morning, ending the much needed deluge that occurred across much of the region. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 50s across much of the region this afternoon. Cloud cover and rainfall held temperatures down yesterday, and highs today will actually be warmer than yesterday across most of the region. High pressure will build in from the Gulf and settle just south of the region tonight. Overnight lows will be 5- 10 degrees below normal in the mid/upper 50s inland and the low 60s along the coast.
Temperatures will be significantly warmer across the area today, but especially in the southwest where we will likely see triple digit temperatures in north Texas near and west of US-283 where downslope winds develop. Models are now bring the cold front farther south tomorrow than yesterday morning's runs. The from will bring somewhat cooler (but still warm) air into the north while it will bake again in the southwest ahead of the front and behind the dryline. Storms will likely develop on the high plains with upslope low-level winds north of the boundary, and we could see some of these storms move into northwest Oklahoma.
229 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Upper closed low continues to churn overhead and provide enough lift for some isolated showers this morning. Models have some backside showers moving into the northeast zones this morning as the upper low moves to the northeast.
444 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 A cold front will push east of the Midlands and CSRA this morning. The upper level low will cross the region today bringing another chance of showers to the area.
A deep upper level trough will gradually move eastward across our area today with westerly/northwesterly flow in its wake bringing progressively drier air into our region. Although thunderstorm chances have ended as the cold front has moved east of our area, a few showers are currently ongoing just southeast of Panama City. Cool air advection in the wake of the cold front will lead to very pleasant temperatures for late May in our area, with morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.