Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 70 89 67 89 / 10 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 86 65 86 / 20 20 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 68 87 64 86 / 20 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 83 60 83 / 20 20 10 0 10.
214 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening along a weak cold front moving south through the area late this afternoon into the evening evening. The region remains in persistent northwesterly flow aloft with a strong ridge of high pressure to our west and persistent troughing to our east. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over central Missouri with southerly low-level return flow extending across central/western KS and Neb. Within this low- level return flow resides a moist airmass with 850mb dewpoints near 14-15C in central Nebraska contributing to an increase in instability to our west and more specifically, across northeastern Nebraska nearest to the surface front where a narrow axis of 65-70F surface dewpoints have pooled.
Later tonight high pressure will build across the region and that should set the stage for another day of sunny skies with light winds for Monday.
/issued 1033 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ Currently, a well-defined cold front extends from Lake Huron, back through Toledo, OH, and directly through Memphis, Tennessee. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the area with overcast skies along the frontal zone. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid 60s by Monday morning. A cold front is moving across the Mid-South early this morning. Patchy fog will either burn off or mix out as the cold front continues to press southeast early this morning.
201 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The chance of rain is increasing for this afternoon and Monday with cooler temperatures behind a weak cold front. There is also a weak cold front moving south across the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma. Storms will also form along the cold front east of Amarillo and move southwest within the flow aloft. More showers and storms are possible Monday as the cold front sinks further into the region. Areas that see substantial rain today or tonight may see even cooler temperatures. The upper ridge to our west will amplify by midweek keeping northerly flow aloft across the area.
133 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorm are expected with the passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Thus, high temps, which are expected to approach the low- 80s, will be too low for deep convection. A broken line of showers will remain and advance along the frontal boundary and exit over the ridges by midnight.
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Thunderstorm chances will remain at more typical levels through Monday, then increase through the week as an upper level trough becomes well established.
158 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move across the area today. Another weak cold front will swing through on Monday. High pressure will then build into the region. A stratus deck will continue to lift into a cumliform deck as a cold front moves into our region from the west. The cold front will pass east across the region through this afternoon. Overall, highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Next short wave moving through a mid level trough will pass through on Monday. Lows will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with highs getting back into the lower to mid 80s. Forecast period will be marked with an upper trough over the eastern U.
Upper level flow will become more northerly throughout the week as a large upper level ridge spins over the western United States.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 67 89 67 / 10 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 65 86 65 / 20 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 64 86 64 / 20 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 83 60 83 62 / 20 10 0 10 10.
218 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS over the coming day, leaving West Texas in some form of northerly flow. Even so, it will still be warm to hot (highs mostly in the lower to middle 90s) after a seasonably mild (lows in the 60s to low 70s) start to the day.
A strong ridge of high pressure will bring record heat to much of the Inland Northwest today.
Mid-upper trough with drier air aloft to the nw will push into se Ga confining most of the convection to coastal Ga and ne Fl this evening.
The very warm and dry weather pattern will continue early this week with the upper level ridge entrenched over the western CONUS. The high amplitude upper level ridge centered over the Intermountain West is progged to deamplify late in the week in response to a series of upper level troughs tracking east along the international border.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure continues to dominate. Benign pattern with an H5 ridge upstream and broad high pressure locally. /issued 310 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Strong H5 ridging will persist over the Desert Southwest and its effect will extend southeast over the area. Replacement high pressure from the Plains will move south into the northwest Gulf on Monday. Otherwise, fairly seasonal weather will prevail, albeit a bit warmer than normal.
North to northwest flow can be seen behind the front, along with lower dewpoints in the low to mid 60s near the Ohio River. High pressure will settle in over the region, resulting in slightly more pleasant seasonable conditions.
1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front has pushed southeast of IL this morning, while weak high pressure will settle into MO and IL today and tonight. A secondary cold front will push south through central IL on Monday, and should pass through dry. Highs today and Monday will be in the mid 80s, with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
1157 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A slow moving area of low pressure will track off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, then a cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania on Monday. High pressure is likely to build in from the Great Lakes during midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week.
1033 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Currently, a well-defined cold front extends from Lake Huron, back through Toledo, OH, and directly through Memphis, Tennessee. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the area with overcast skies along the frontal zone. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid 60s by Monday morning. A cold front is moving across the Mid-South early this morning. Patchy fog will either burn off or mix out as the cold front continues to press southeast early this morning.
As the smoke moves east, we still expect many of the valleys to see highs this afternoon in the low to mid 90s.
Luckily this will be the last day for the excessive heat as cooler/drier air filters into the region behind cold front over the next few days. As mentioned previously, less humid weather expected for much of the upcoming work week as upper trough stalls over the eastern CONUS in response to strong blocking high over the western Atlantic.
243 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 (Tonight and Monday) An upper level ridge will remain over the Desert Southwest through Monday. SPC has our region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather due to the high amounts of instability and dry-low layer, which could result in damaging wind gusts. Expect lows tonight in the low 70s. With weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge expected and a cooler northeasterly flow, expect Monday highs to be several degrees cooler (92-98 F). For the rest of week, a strong upper level high pressure ridge(596 to 600 DM heights) will be located over the western CONUS. Expect upper level northerly flow on the east side of the ridge over West Central Texas.
1208 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The midlevel high pressure has become centered over the southern end of the Great Basin and will remain quasi-stationary for the next few days. Highs will run well above normal again today, but like yesterday areas under the thicker smoke will remain a few degrees cooler than surrounding areas.
Otherwise a weak cold front will sink southward through western and north central Nebraska today. SFC based CAPE values around 2500 J/KG should materialize within the higher theta-e air along and just ahead of the front. As mentioned, this is only a weak cold front that crosses the area, and not expecting much of cool down at all temperature wise. Upper level high pressure expands and strengthens across the western CONUS during the upcoming week. North to northwest flow aloft across our region will prevail on the eastern periphery of the high. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will build into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and Monday morning presenting VFR.
The persistent area of high pressure is currently centered just to our west with moisture riding around the periphery of the high evident on satellite this afternoon. Enhanced drainage may briefly enhance winds in the Grand Valley and Glenwood Canyon, but overall the high pressure should keep winds on the light side. The smoke has also kept high temperatures slightly cooler than guidance and this trend will continue on Monday. Monday will also see the high reposition slightly, allowing for a gradual increase in moisture. The high will wobble from the southern Great Basin to the Southwest then back late in the period.
1242 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move through through the area today, bringing drier conditions to the region. Weak cold front continues moving toward the coast and will move offshore this afternoon as the axis of the upper level trough also crosses the forecast area. 5 inches behind the cold front. Even with upper troughing over the area, 500mb heights will still be around average which combined with increased solar insolation will lead to increased temperatures compared to Sunday, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Another weak surface cold front will descend into the southern Appalachians bringing some increased moisture, allowing for a chance for shower and storm development, mainly along the Piedmont. Models have trended slower in deepening the trough in response to the ridge in western CONUS.
321 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front is currently pushing through north Mississippi at this hour. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s areawide tomorrow morning.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. There are a couple of relic boundaries spreading east and southeast towards the Lower Keys, so we will see how this progresses. Forecast soundings retain the pesky dry layers in the lower troposphere, and this makes sense since without advection, there can be very little modification to the atmosphere.
212 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Much drier today with mid day dewpoints in the 50s and pleasant with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front will move through late in the day, possibly bringing some chances for rain.
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon and evening along the periphery of this ridge, and perhaps more importantly to this area will be a focus of some low level convergence across central and eastern Nebraska. The upstream ridge (currently located over the northern Plains) will build southward through the day on Monday, which will introduce a weak boundary into the area. The highest PoPs will be across northeastern MO, into EC MO, a little closer to the stronger mid level jet. This frontal intrusion will reset the mechanism for the weather across the area, with a formidable ridge remaining in place over the upper midwest, and the immediate forecast area through the bulk of the upcoming week.
Canadian high pressure will back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and Monday and then move east Monday night with return moisture developing. A warm front stretching north and south across wrn Nebraska will accompany the moisture return. The models are generally quiet in terms of thunderstorm development along the warm front but the NAMnest suggested isolated showers Monday night and the NAM12 shows about 1000J/KG of elevated CAPE which could support thunderstorm development. This forecast presents temperatures that are slightly warmer during the day and cooler at night than the short term model blend.
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Fairly quiet and cooler forecast well through the coming week. Anyway, for the remainder of the weekend, the forecast looks rather nice, with the high pressure remaining parked over the area. Not to re-hash the synoptic discussion the past few days, but the area will remain sandwiched between a steep ridge over the western U. to a deep trough to the east.
Upper level analysis shows strong ridge center in western portions of UT and AZ with the a broad trough east of the Mississippi River. This trough will dive south enough to drive drier continental air into the forecast area. There's even a frontal boundary associated with the trough as well. The GFS and some meso models do indicate at least some potential for them to make it to the northern fridges of the CWA. Thus, went with the lower biased POPs of the NBM.
A cold front currently draped across Middle Tennessee and central Kentucky will continue to push southeast today.
1224 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue along the coast through today, but will diminish tonight as drier air builds in behind a cold front moving offshore this evening.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: The upper level ridge will continue to build over the entire western US today. High pressure aloft will be persistent for the greater portion of the week. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today with light winds and plenty of sun.
109 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front has sent showers and thunderstorms well east of the area today.
A strong 600dm 500mb ridge will be parked over the western U. S, while downstream troughing exists across the eastern CONUS.
224 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS over the coming day, leaving West Texas in some form of northerly flow. Even so, it will still be warm to hot (highs mostly in the lower to middle 90s) after a seasonably mild (lows in the 60s to low 70s) start to the day.
SBCAPE values are expected to be on the low side, around 200-400 J/kg so do not anticipate widespread thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out a few thunderstorms. Tonight, colder air working down from Canada will drop a dry cold front across Upper Michigan. Overall upper pattern will be pretty amplified for August standards with significant heat ridge centered over the desert southwest. 50H height will exceed 600 dam into midweek with ridge axis extending up into western Canada. Downstream upper troughing will exist over eastern North America with northwesterly upper flow prevailing across the Upper Great Lakes at least until late in the work week.
Another warm summer day is expected, with highs in the lower 80s. Weak ridging sliding through with more of a weak trough setting up this afternoon. Otherwise Wi will be situated between low pressure in the eastern Lakes region and high pressure slowly working in from the northern Plains.
111 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Forecast remains largely on track with expansive dome of high pressure firmly entrenched over the SW US. Upper level ridge axis extends through the Rockies up into western Canada. Dry, west-northwest flow will persist through much of the week as western ridge lingers. With the ridge axis remaining off to our west, it's expected that embedded waves will round the top of the ridge and yield chances for isolated storms each day this week. Expect most likely areas for an isolated storm or two to be across the higher terrain in Wyoming and the Black Hills.
Different story expected on Monday and Monday night with dry high pressure becoming better established across the region. Expect high temperatures in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70.
146 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Low pressure will continue to track off of the Atlantic coast tonight as a cold front pushes into Pennylvania tonight and Monday. High pressure is likely to build in from the Great Lakes during midweek, then pass off the east coast by the end of the week. In between, some pop up showers are possible in the Ridge and Valley Region this evening, and will decrease by late tonight.
CAMs are still showing light showers/weak thunderstorm activity possibly developing late this afternoon ending before sunset, but considering the lower instability (ML CAPE less than 250 J/KG) and less organized forcing, combing with higher mixed layers lowers confidence in more that very light amounts where this would track. Loss of daytime heating should help stabilize the low levels and activity should fall apart. Ridging continues to amplify/shift east tonight into Monday with dry weather favored. Regarding temperatures: Lingering cooler air mass and good radiational conditions should support 50s for most with cooler spots in the upper 40s tonight.
Rua A short wave dropping down between the southwest US upper level ridge and the east coast trough, will help push a weak surface frontal boundary into and though the forecast area tonight. With the high instability levels, some of the storms could become rather robust, with profiles suggesting strong downburst and outflow winds.
Tonight, a weak cold front is progged to pass over Upper Michigan. Tomorrow, winds will gust into the teens from the north behind a cold front passing late tonight. Overall upper pattern will be pretty amplified for August standards with significant heat ridge centered over the desert southwest. 50H height will exceed 600 dam into midweek with ridge axis extending up into western Canada. Downstream upper troughing will exist over eastern North America with northwesterly upper flow prevailing across the Upper Great Lakes at least until late in the work week.
325 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front is currently pushing through north Mississippi at this hour. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s areawide tomorrow morning as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
An extensive cloud shield is moving across eastern OR and southwest ID this morning as monsoonal moisture is being wrapped around the upper level ridge over NV/UT. Cloud cover is much more extensive than what is forecast this morning, which may limit storm development and keep temperatures cooler this afternoon.
The H850 trough and warm air advection causing the convection will shift south of the region later this evening while another weak "backdoor" boundary drops south southwest into northeast Iowa and then heads south overnight. This will result in cooler temperatures over the north/northeast while the far south continues milder overnight. Lows tonight will drop to the upper 50s to 60 north and in the lower to mid 60s in the south.
203 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 In the wake of yesterday's cold front clear skies, low dewpoints, and below normal temperatures have made it a phenomenal summer day across our CWA. The high responsible for much of today's astonishingly nice weather will shift a bit to the southeast over the afternoon and evening, and the surface flow will back to the west by the evening in response. This westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will keep temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer tonight than last night, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Behind the front temperatures will cool once more into the low to mid 60s Monday night.
111 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Aviation -Storms exiting this morning -Showers and weak storms possible Monday -Mild weather this upcoming week --Storms exiting this morning-- Convection from the approaching cold front continues to move eastward through central Michigan. The upper level trough continues to move through Central Canada with cooler air dropping down across the state today. Given it is still summertime, Max Temperatures will still be in the low 80s with northerly flow dominating today. --Showers and weak storms possible Monday-- As the upper low drops down toward the Great Lakes a secondary front will move through Monday. Several weak troughs will move through the region this week.
Southerly low level winds and expanding upper ridge across the western conus will lead to a gradual warming trend with temperatures remaining above normal on highs through much of the week.
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Scattered showers are expected with and behind a cold front this evening and Monday.
A cold front currently draped across Middle Tennessee and central Kentucky will continue to push southeast today. A cold frontal boundary will then move through the area in the afternoon.
1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Latest subjective surface analysis indicates the cold front has reached a line from Dumas, to Camden. 55 The cold front will continue to move through central and south Arkansas today. High pressure will build in behind the front. Today Through Monday Night The large upper ridge continues over the desert southwest providing northwest flow aloft over the Plains. A cold front will move through central and south Arkansas today. High pressure will build into the area behind the front, which by 00Z should be near the Louisiana border.
The Atlantic ridge will remain south of the area allowing for winds to remain from the southwest but lighter. A trough at the mid-upper levels will be stretching south over central U.
218 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A pretty typical late summer flow pattern is in place across the US, with mid/upper level ridging centered across the western US and a relatively quiet northwest flow pattern across the Midwest. Over the next 24 hours, predominantly tranquil weather will continue with little change in the upper flow pattern and surface ridging approaching from the northern plains. Some recent high res models have indicated a few showers later on overnight into WI, so have brought low chance north and eastward, but the highest likelihood looks to be across northeast IA.
Finally, upslope flow across the High Plains is resulting in convection in the Texas panhandle.
The surface cold frontal trough will drop southward across the area on Monday. A cooler and dryer airmass will work over the area Monday night ahead of an area of high pressure shifting southward over the Upper Midwest. Shower chances increase slightly by the weekend in the return flow on the back side of the ridge. At this time range, slight chance POPs appear to be a reasonable start but forecast chances may increase as the scenario becomes more clear and the ridge pushes farther away to the southeast.
1038 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front has pushed southeast of IL this morning, while weak high pressure will settle into MO and IL today and tonight. A secondary cold front will push south through central IL on Monday, and should pass through dry. Highs today and Monday will be in the mid 80s, with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
Temperatures at 2 pm were in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s creating comfortable humidity levels for August. Temperatures will be near or a bit warmer than last night, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Slightly cooler air filtering in behind the boundary will then result in a slight cool down with Monday's highs from around 80 to 85. A northwest flow between an upper low over the Hudson Bay region and high over the intermountain western U.
Drier northwest flow will push in overnight tonight, allowing for clear skies and lows in the low to mid 60s.
An upper level trough remains positioned from the Ohio Valley through the Appalachian Mountains and Eastern Seaboard early this afternoon while a strong ridge of high pressure aloft was located over the western U. Lows tonight range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees along the immediate coast and the beaches.