Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF THE MONSOON PLUME NORTHWARD INTO CO ON MONDAY. MODELS HIT THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND RATON RIDGE REGION THE HARDEST WITH SOME HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING STEADILY SOUTH. COOLER WITH MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN BACK TO A MODEST NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE PLAINS AND THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO AN ANTICYCLONE WITH E/SE WINDS INTO DENVER IN THE MORNING.
Otherwise, expect clear skies and lows in the low to mid 70s.
THE DAKOTAS TROUGH MOVES EAST AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE EVENING AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROL THE GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION. THE LOCAL AIRMASS WAS IN FACT DRY ENOUGH IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE LEVELS. THAT EARLIER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S COULD NOT GET MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION SUSTAINED (EXCEPT DURING THE WARMEST PORTION OF THE DAY). IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A HOT ONE WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE REGION ON SUN BRINGING WARMER WEATHER AND WEAKENING THE DELTA BREEZE. SUN'S MAX TEMPS WERE SOME 10-16 DEG WARMER THAN SAT IN THE CARQUINEZ STRAIT/ SRN SAC VLY AREA. THE WARMER WX AND DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING LIKELY EXACERBATED FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR THE JERUSALEM FIRE IN SRN LAKE CO. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DROPS SOUTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO AND OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE FAR NRN CONUS AND INTO CANADA. CONFIDENCE IN THE ENDING OF ANY ACTIVITY IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. AND WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE USHERING IN A COLD FRONT WITH NRLY WINDS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AS THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON WHETHER OR NOT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH. /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER E-CENTRAL TX IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE REVEALED AGITATED CU ORGANIZING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MATURE INTO PULSE STORMS IN THE HOURS AHEAD. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD TAKE AIM ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 12K FEET TURN SELY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD MONDAY EVENING WHILST VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN COAST.
835 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS MONTANA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS ND. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL SHOULD HELP GIVE SOME SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE.
47 TREND OF FAIRLY DECENT MIXING CONTINUING OVER SE TX THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY. THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SLIGHTLY BY WED AND THUR WITH THE MAIN AXIS SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORT WAVES TO RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DROP ACROSS NRN MN AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS DOWN THE ATMOS COLUMN.
AN UPPER LOW, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 48N/131W THIS EVENING, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH. /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER E-CENTRAL TX IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE REVEALED AGITATED CU ORGANIZING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MATURE INTO PULSE STORMS IN THE HOURS AHEAD. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD TAKE AIM ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 12K FEET TURN SELY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD MONDAY EVENING WHILST VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN COAST.
1237 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U. AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
WESTERN LAKES UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS YESTERDAY. THE WEAK RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMING TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME THE DRIVING FORCE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND DRIVE AN INCREASED MARINE PRESENCE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1233 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, AIDING IN FORCING.
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW WI TO CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND IT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
1020 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 TREND OF FAIRLY DECENT MIXING CONTINUING OVER SE TX THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. LBX HAS THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX AT 109. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON MON AND TUE COMPARED TO TODAY.
SO CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE WEAK AND ONLY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF RIDGES.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD INTO MONDAY. /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ MEDIAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE HIGH UPPER 90S AT THE MOMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EASE NORTHWESTWARD TOMORROW.
745 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
755 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A BIT EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE PROGGS THAT TRACKS UP OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS. SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSHOWER OVER OR NEAR THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE TOMORROW.
719 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.
803 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 73 90 / 10 40 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 86 71 86 / 10 50 60 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 89 72 87 / 10 50 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 84 67 83 / 10 60 60 40.
/ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER E-CENTRAL TX IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE REVEALED AGITATED CU ORGANIZING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MATURE INTO PULSE STORMS IN THE HOURS AHEAD. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD TAKE AIM ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 12K FEET TURN SELY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD MONDAY EVENING WHILST VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST ALONG 135W. WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF SEATTLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE LOW DUE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM MO/IL TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING INCREASES FROM MISSOURI THROUGH THE LOWER WABASH AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, AIDING IN FORCING.
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE DAY.
UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED WESTWARD ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
955 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN LAST EVENING. PUSHING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THEN NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORETELL A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
740 PM PDT SUN AUG 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO EXPANDS WEST. A TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 130W AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT WED MAINTAINING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN U.
WITH A DEEP(!) UPPER-DECK TROF DIGGING FROM QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH WOULD SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NE & E OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW WI TO CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND IT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A NEBULOUS RIDGE LIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT. DESPITE A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH(ABOVE 500 MB) DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
1033 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE LOWEST VIS OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF HAS PUSHED WWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL LA. CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA INVOF OF WHERE THE WEAK SFC TROF AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL RESIDE. QUICK SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
340 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 The well-advertised cold front scooting through the region tonight has been showing a drier and drier trend with each of the various models and runs. Once the front and precip clears out overnight, a dry forecast is in store once again for the rest of the forecast period as a combination of UL ridging and NW flow aloft dominates the regional pattern.
BUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGH TEMPS END UP BEING EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
Cooler air behind the front will lag behind the wind shift a bit, so I don't expect it to play much of a factor in lows tomorrow morning. MOS lows in the low to mid 50s look pretty reasonable.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON FRIDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
418 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO PROVIDING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND REGION AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOUR STATE REGION WAS UNDER A WEAKLYAMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH ALSO HAS HELPED PROVIDE VERY WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN WITH SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SADDEST WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE BAJA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING.
309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 Cold front approaching the western border of Illinois this afternoon and will be the main story in the short range as the eastern half of the CONUS is dominated by quasi zonal flow aloft. Overnight lows drop into the lower 50s for most areas NW of the Illinois River Valley. and areas south of I-70 staying warmer under more persistent cloud cover and a slower moving front in the early morning hours. By early Friday morning, the cold front will have progressed near I- 70. Cool high pressure will be arriving Friday afternoon behind the cold front. High temps on Friday will be about 15 deg cooler than Thurs, with readings mainly in the mid 60s.
THE COLD FRONT NOW TRAVELING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVER WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
141 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
149 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY BY OCTOBER STANDARDS WITH MANY AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.
ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THESE AREAS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. ELSEWHERE KEPT MINS AROUND 40 WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IF SKIES CLEAR.
SFC WINDS HAD BEGUN TO GUST ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN WHERE TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WHERE A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WAS IN EASTERN ND WHICH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE ACROSS MN DURING THE MORNING.
SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN RETREAT TO OUR EAST. AFTERWARDS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA, SO WE CAN EXPECT A MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ON FRIDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH MINOT AND BISMARCK ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH WESTERN TN WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING A WESTWARD RETROGRADE.
121 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS FLOWING THROUGH AND OVER THIS RIDGE THIS MORNING. SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS THIN AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Mdls also suggest the upper trof out of sync with the sfc fnt across the area. However, as the upper trof approaches, it appears precip will switch to more stratiform. As for temps today, while the upper low over nrn Mexico is expected to drift swwd today, a leading s/w currently over ern NEB/KS is expected to provide ample cloud cover thru at least the morning hours. Have trended twd the cooler guidance again today due to questions of cloud cover, but also due to the amount of CU that developed and temps across the Plains yesterday. Generally, trended cooler across the nrn third and warmer across the srn third based on cloud trends and timing of fropa.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED AS PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS RETROGRADING. AS THE LOW MOVES BACK TO THE WEST THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS KANSAS CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A broad, diffluent upper-level pattern exists downstream of this low, with a 250mb speed max approaching the Big Bend at this time. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s with highs on Friday generally in the low to mid 80s. Johnson (Friday night through next Thursday) As the upper low retrogrades further into the eastern Pacific, a mid/upper level ridge will build over Texas and into the southwestern states this weekend.
301 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MN. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE. BUT THEN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. WARMER AIR WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
152 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
As a much cooler airmass continues to flow across southern Missouri tomorrow, afternoon highs may struggle to warm out of the 60s.
251 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
248 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /ML CAPES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS PSBL ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE MID AND LWR SUSQ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
136 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
High pressure off the Carolina coast will move further into the Atlantic shifting our low level flow to more of a southeasterly component overnight. Elsewhere, with skies mostly clear, expect another night of cool temperatures in South Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle with lows in the lower 60s.
A significant, fast- moving, mid level shrtwv will sweep through the ern half of the CONUS on Fri and Sat, bringing a sfc cold front through the PAH forecast area early Fri. It appears that atmospheric moisture available for lift will be limited in the low levels, reducing the likelihood of deep moist convection, and therefore coverage and intensity of showers. The best PoPs (chance) will be in the srn half of our region, where the highest QPF will be (up to a quarter inch). Rapid clearing will occur from the west Fri night, ushering in a cooler drier air mass for the weekend.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
132 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015 A RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE IN CHECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A LITTLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM CALIFORNIA STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
500 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY IN THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S EVEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE AND DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF NW AL. FOR THOSE THAT LIKED THE WARMER WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WAS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY DOWN ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE.
301 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER WRN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT TRAILED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
The front is still well north of the area so expect the opportunity to realize sun and thermal ridge ahead of the front to push highs into the middle 80s with dewpoints expected to be in the upper 50s to around 60. Additional lift and scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the main mid level trough tonight so will keep the going 30-50 POPs tonight although rainfall amounts may be modest with one tenth to one half at most expected for those that do see precip. Upper trough will be exiting southeast Kansas Friday morning with rapidly clearing skies into the midday hours.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.