Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PWAT values are forecast to hold around 2 inches or more today, favoring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances during the mid to late afternoon with the sea breeze collisions. Late in the week and into the weekend, the forecast will be heavily dependent on the path of what is currently called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.
This puts most areas into the lower to middle 80s for highs.
0 inches as an upper level trough passes to the north across the Great Lakes. Patchy fog will also develop tonight in the moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 86 73 88 / 60 60 90 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 73 86 73 86 / 50 50 90 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 85 71 87 / 50 50 90 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 85 69 83 / 40 40 80 70 80.
Winds become northwest as a cold front currently northwest of the area moves through. This will favor onshore flow tonight for many lakeshore communities along Lake Superior, helping keep temperatures locally warmer (upper 50s) overnight. Elsewhere, lows will fall into the low to mid 50s, with a pocket of mid/upper 40s possible across the interior west. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler behind the front. Strong subsidence overspreading the region as high pressure builds in should keep a lid on any shower development as the subsidence inversion and magnitude of dry air aloft increase throughout the day. Not much change from the previous discussion as an upper level low will continue to move eastward into Quebec by Thursday.
1155 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extending west southwestward across Central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for gentle to moderate east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. All of this is consistent with the lower to mid level ridge being located nearby to the north. Temperatures are slowly falling into the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Forecast - The ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the balance of the work week. Rain chances will remain slight due to the predominant ridging. We are keeping our eyes on a potential tropical cyclone, currently moving across the Windward Islands.
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A cold front will move south through the forecast area from Canada this afternoon. After frontal passage, high pressure settles overhead tonight. The high remains in control Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will build into the area tonight, then become established for the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend resulting in hot and dry conditions. Behind this trough, the airmass has trended more stable owing to large-scale subsidence. The ridge will usher in a warming and drying trend, with little in the way of measurable precipitation expected for the rest of the week.
An upper level short wave trough was moving east across central Wyoming early this morning.
Afternoon highs are expected up into the upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 90s(F) in portions of southwest Kansas. With a cold front pushing through western Kansas overnight, should see lows mainly down into the 60s(F) by daybreak Thursday morning. Temperatures will not be as warm Thursday in wake of a cold front pushing through the high plains early morning. Expect highs only up into the mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 80s(F) farther south closer to the Oklahoma border. The unseasonably 'cooler' temperatures will continue through the early part of the weekend. Low level stratus is forecast to develop along a warm front as it lifts slowly north across southwest Kansas overnight. Light southeasterly winds are expected through this afternoon as a warm front lifts slowly north across southwest and south central Kansas.
Only minor day-to- day changes are expected through the forecast period as high pressure slowly strengthens over the Southwest while a mid/upper level trough persists off of the Pacific Northwest coast. This said, temperatures this afternoon may be slightly cooler in coastal adjacent valleys as winds in the lower levels become more westerly helping to usher cooler marine air even into the afternoon hours.
Afternoon highs are expected up into the upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 90s(F) in portions of southwest Kansas. With a cold front pushing through western Kansas overnight, should see lows mainly down into the 60s(F) by daybreak Thursday morning. Temperatures will not be as warm Thursday in wake of a cold front pushing through the high plains early morning. Expect highs only up into the mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 80s(F) farther south closer to the Oklahoma border. The unseasonably 'cooler' temperatures will continue through the early part of the weekend. Light south-southeasterly winds will continue through this evening as a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.
High pressure is expected across the area today. Previous discussion Dry weather expected today as a narrow ridge of high pressure remains. Convective potential over the southern Great Lakes in association with a short wave trough moving through that area expected to stay to the north. Model data suggest a gradual development of an upper trough over the Midwest during this period.
High pressure over the southwest United States will flex its muscle this week, providing dry conditions and sending daytime temperatures towards the 100 degree mark through the weekend, perhaps breaking some temperature records. High pressure north of the Baja region will strengthen and drift northward through Thursday morning. All the while, the expanding ridge axis will extend through eastern Nevada. The ridge will move over Utah Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures remain on track and range from the upper 40s/low 50s in northwest MN, to the lower 60s near Devils Lake. Temperatures are generally in the upper 50s and low 60s from the Red River Valley westward, with cooler temperatures in the lower 50s near Lake of the Woods. Look for another day in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region, with warmer temperatures further west. Nearly zonal flow aloft will gradually transition to northeasterly flow tonight into Thursday as H5 ridging builds to our west. This will gradually transition eastward through the night and into Thursday, ensuring continued dry weather and warmer temperatures. Highs for Thursday will be in the lower 80s in northwest Minnesota, with upper 80s further west in the Devils Lake Basin.
VFR and high pressure should dominate into Thursday. High pressure pushes in through the period which should result in weak winds tonight then a bit more of a steady onshore regime for Thursday. This resulting from the pressure gradient between the high vicinity of Lake Superior and low pressure moving through mid Miss Vly.
Today will also be the start of a cooler trend. Highs this afternoon are going to be rather dependent on how much cloud cover is around, but generally look to be in the lower to mid 80s. A rather broad and diffuse front will usher in the cooler air Thursday morning along with the chances for rain.
However, a cold front will move through the DHT and GUY TAF sites at the end of this forecast which will turn the winds more to the north at speeds around 10 knots. An upper level short wave trough was moving east across central Wyoming early this morning.
Thu may not get out of control with the heat as numbers look to stay in the lower 90s. But we may be a little cool with Fri numbers as a trough swings into the area providing extra subsidence well ahead of it along with plenty of sunshine. Some of these could play rough as they will be able to entrain the dry air ahead of and behind them as well as taking advantage of the high cape values.
904 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Weak cold front will continue to move south of the area this morning, into northern Illinois this afternoon. Southern Wisconsin should remain dry, with the influence of high pressure to the north. A weak cold front will move south through the far southern portion of the lake today.
/issued 421 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020/ An upper ridge is over the Desert Southwest but is flattened somewhat by an upper low over the northern Rocky Mountains. West Texas and southeast New Mexico will be on the eastern edge of the upper ridge today. The upper ridge will build over the western U.
410 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Upper ridge settles over the northern Rockies/Plains to bring more persistent hot weather to the region into the weekend. Mainly clear skies are expected today with high pressure over the region.
Once daytime heating starts, showers will become more numerous, even as the trough slowly drifts east into SD this afternoon. Showers across Johnson County could also get strong this afternoon, due to instability from daytime heating and proximity to the trough. Ridging begins to build northward across the Intermountain West tonight into tomorrow, stabilizing the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are still possible for the I-25 corridor, depending on how close the departing trough is to the region still.
However, this does appear to be the last hurrah for said weakness as ridging is progged to build in across much of the northern gulf by tomorrow.
Temperatures range from the lower 70s across the majority of the area to upper 70s along the Delta.
High pressure ridging into the Gulf of Mexico will keep a southeast through southwest wind flow around 10 knots or less through the end of the week.
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 At 2 AM, a cold front was located over southern Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast Iowa, and the southern half of Grant County in southwest Wisconsin. Low temperatures on Thursday morning will range from the lower 50s to mid-60s. Weak high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the work week with dry weather, seasonable temps and some morning fog in favored valley/low-lying areas. Over the weekend, northwest flow will amplify as deeper troughing spreads into the Great Lakes.
1038 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A weak cold front will approach from the Great Lakes late today, then sag south through Pennsylvania Thursday.
507 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A weak cold front will approach from the Great Lakes late today, then sag south through Pennsylvania Thursday.
0 inches as an upper level trough passes to the north across the Great Lakes. Patchy fog will also develop tonight in the moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 74 86 73 89 / 60 50 80 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 85 72 86 / 50 40 80 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 73 85 72 86 / 50 40 80 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 85 70 84 / 40 30 80 80 80.
The main synoptic driver for the region over the next several days will be a strengthening upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest. This positioned with an upper level low several hundred miles west of the Pacific Northwest will promote a dry, southwest flow over central and northern California.
In addition, coastal areas that remain under the influence of this marine layer will remain typically cool, with afternoon temperatures only in the low 60s.
533 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Dry weather is expected for most areas today, though shower and thunderstorm chances return near and north of I 80 this afternoon with a weak cold front. Periodic rain chances are then expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure.
537 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 High pressure will shift farther east of the region today, allowing warm and increasingly humid air to spread in from the southwest. 06z surface map placed weak high pressure over northern KY. The cold front that pushed through the area early yesterday morning, had turned stationary from the southern tip of IN back into central MO. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to around 90, and dewpoints creeping into the lower 70s from the southwest will push afternoon heat indices into the mid 90s over the western half of the area. Fairly muggy conditions overnight with lows only dropping into the lower 70s.
Overall, a relatively quiet pattern continues, although a weak upper level low continues to slowly drift southeast clipping southwestern ND. Otherwise, will continue to carry pops into the evening across the region, while tapering them off as the upper low pushes southeast.
Weak, mid level nearly barotropic low circulation featuring mild mid level temperatures and weak elevated instability drifting from Wyoming into western South Dakota, supporting elevated convecting this morning across central South Dakota in the vicinity of a mid level trough axis. Convection will weaken around mid morning but despite low surface dewpoint air coming off of nearby high pressure, NAM BUFKIT profiles support enough instability for diabatically driven convection this afternoon, so long as convective debris dissipate/drift out of the focus area of central/western South Dakota.
703 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A weak cold front will approach from the Great Lakes late today, then sag south through Pennsylvania Thursday.
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Expect dry weather today under high pressure.
421 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 An upper ridge is over the Desert Southwest but is flattened somewhat by an upper low over the northern Rocky Mountains. West Texas and southeast New Mexico will be on the eastern edge of the upper ridge today. The upper ridge will build over the western U.
A dry and quiet weather pattern has returned to the region as high pressure builds into the desert southwest, but the persistent trough in the eastern Pacific will keep the high pressure from building directly over the Sierra and western Nevada.
This is part of our larger summer pattern with the thermal trough continuing to create hot temperatures across much of the area (except for the coast).
The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) indicates that the ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest will slightly strengthen today into Thursday. As a result, not expecting any storms over the higher elevations of the Sierra for the immediate future.
728 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Dry weather is expected for most areas today, though shower and thunderstorm chances return near and north of I 80 this afternoon with a weak cold front. Periodic rain chances are then expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure.
Discussion: A cold front is expected to sag into the area through the morning. By afternoon, this front is expected to be somewhere between the highway 30 and 20 corridor.
521 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over northern WY/southern MT with copious amounts of moisture extending through the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof extends from central MT through the NEB panhandle. Upper low will drift slowly southeast today into the Black Hills. Main upper low shifts southeast through the Central Plains on Thursday, but enough moisture/instability in place for additional convection especially from the Black Hill through southwest SD.
Cloudy skies expected southwest into portions of southern North Dakota, with partial sunshine north where some mid/high clouds have formed in a weak deformation zone around the upper low. High temperatures continue to look on track close to 90 northwest and the lower 80s east. Overall, a relatively quiet pattern continues, although a weak upper level low continues to slowly drift southeast clipping southwestern ND. Otherwise, will continue to carry pops into the evening across the region, while tapering them off as the upper low pushes southeast.
Large upper level low centered over/near James Bay this morning will elongate in more southwest-northeast fashion and sink south over the next 48 hours. But coverage is then called in question, as mid level lapse rates are very weak and the low-mid level winds are also unidirectional.
647 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead of a southward diving cold front today through Thursday.
A very unorganized mid-lvl trough continues to pivot across the Northern Plains this afternoon, with smaller vorticity maximum moving through portions of the Dakotas and Middle Missouri River Valley region. Thursday: High pressure settles southward on Thursday bring slightly cooler temperatures. We should see scattered strato-cu develop by mid-day as cooler air aloft filters southwest.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air data showing large upper low located over southern Hudson Bay with trough extending into the northeastern CONUS. Ridging continues across the western half of the country although an upper low has pushed through the ridge and was centered just west of the MT/WY/SD border. A lee trough stretched south of the low along the front range. Precip threat doesn't end with this as we will remain under cyclonic flow with the broad upper low to our NW working slowly across the Plains Wed night and Thursday.
Aloft, light flow, generally out of the WSW and weak ridging across the Gulf states provides some suppression to the afternoon storms, usually quashing most of their longevity. However, tonight, a short wave tops the 500mb ridge to the west, and spokes around the deep low over Hudson Bay/Great Lakes, sustaining some of the showers and thunderstorms, especially across our north through the evening.
142 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 An area of instability is building eastward across lower MI this afternoon while a weak cold front sinks southward and a midlevel disturbance moves overhead. Cooler north flow off the lake will maintain a SCT coverage of cumulus tomorrow with conditions staying dry. Large upper level low centered over/near James Bay this morning will elongate in more southwest-northeast fashion and sink south over the next 48 hours. But coverage is then called in question, as mid level lapse rates are very weak and the low-mid level winds are also unidirectional.
131 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead of a southward diving cold front today through Thursday.
Upper ridging increases overnight and Thursday, ending rain chances and increasing temperatures.
1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Expecting a modest uptick in shower/thunderstorm chances and coverage today across generally the eastern half of Kansas, as a weak/subtle 800-600mb trough moves slowly northeast across the region amidst a continued anomalously moist airmass. This evening and tonight, a separate area of thunderstorms is expected to progress southeast off the High Plains.
Afternoon highs are expected up into the upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 90s(F) in portions of southwest Kansas. With a cold front pushing through western Kansas overnight, should see lows mainly down into the 60s(F) by daybreak Thursday morning. Temperatures will not be as warm Thursday in wake of a cold front pushing through the high plains early morning. Expect highs only up into the mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 80s(F) farther south closer to the Oklahoma border. The unseasonably 'cooler' temperatures will continue through the early part of the weekend.
342 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 This evening will continue to be beautiful under the high pressure. Fog should dissipate by morning as the sun warms the lower atmosphere.
We expect isolated storms in the higher elevations of southeast Oregon and Baker County, and isolated to scattered storms in eastern Valley and far northeast Boise counties this afternoon and evening.
Other than the smoke, it will be another warm one with highs pushing into the lower 100's in many of the valleys west of the Cascades and lower 90's east of the Cascades. The lower conditions will then burn back to the coast by Wednesday afternoon. Gusty afternoon winds and a slight chance for thunderstorms along the Cascade ridge are expected for tomorrow afternoon.
Meanwhile, after some highs in the lower 90s today in the Evansville Tri-State region, a gradual decrease in temps can be expected through the short term. The medium-long range ensemble suite of forecast models features us staying more or less in a generally troffy height pattern evolution thru the period. This is going to reflect in the forecast with daily pops and associated sky cover, and as a result, muted temps off the highs.
This region of convective initiation is well covered by the high-resolution solutions. Although East Idaho generally under the influence of the upper ridge, some of the high-resolution solutions are introducing isolated convection during the day Thursday.
404 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A weak cold front will approach from the Great Lakes tonight and then sag south across Pennsylvania Thursday.
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A cold front stalls south of the area along the Mid Atlantic coast before washing out later today. Another cold front will move across the region on Thursday. High pressure builds in for the weekend.
252 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 A weak cold front will approach from the Great Lakes tonight and then sag south across Pennsylvania Thursday.
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Upper level ridging south of Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Some minor fluctuations with the location of the ridge axis will occur through the end of the week, but overall no significant change in the synoptic pattern is expected through the end of the week.
(This evening through Thursday) The main concerns for the short term period are the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over NW Oklahoma (including portions of Harper, Woodward, Woods, and Alfalfa Counties) and the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, especially over northern Oklahoma, in association with a midlevel trough tracking SE from the WY/SD/NE junction.
97 Upper ridge settles over the northern Rockies/Plains to bring more persistent hot weather to the region into the weekend. Mainly clear skies are expected today with high pressure over the region.
227 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Water vapor shows an upper low spinning right over the BLKHLS with radar indicating showers/thunderstorms likewise rotating around the BLKHLS. Given the high precipitable water and weak mean wind, heavy rains and flash flooding will continue to be a threat through this evening, and possibly into early Thursday. However, it does appear that the upper low will shift southeast a little on Thursday, with precipitable water dropping as well.
343 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020 The leading edge of a robust upper level disturbance by mid summer standards was approaching the high plains this afternoon, along with an associated cold front. The lower levels will likely not be nearly as unstable by this time so that the chance for severe storms is low. Highs Thursday will be held down into the upper 70s in central Kansas, with warmer mid 80s along the Oklahoma state line. The upper level ridge is staying south or west of our area and it looks like this will be the case out through the first week of August.
Upper level RAP analysis places the area between two main areas of high pressure aloft, one in the southwest US and the other extending from the GoM into the western Atlantic. A low was noted riding atop the ridge to the west across the Rockies. Highs today will rise into the low 80s to near 90. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 86 73 89 72 / 40 90 70 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 85 72 86 71 / 30 80 80 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 73 85 72 86 70 / 30 90 80 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 85 70 84 68 / 40 80 80 80 40.
Periodic rain chances are then expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was over the eastern Caribbean this morning and on its forecast track, it could be near southern and western FL this weekend.
1201 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 An unsettled pattern through Thursday as an upper level low pressure system to the north tracks away from the region.
With a net decrease in convection/cloud cover expected today, temperatures will respond by climbing to around 90 areawide, as opposed to the lower/mid 80s seen yesterday. However, this does appear to be the last hurrah for said weakness as ridging is progged to build in across much of the northern gulf by tomorrow.