Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 334 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ Zonal flow aloft will amplify through the day today as an upper level ridge builds over New Mexico and Colorado. At the surface, winds will veer to south and increase a bit to become modestly breezy during the afternoon in response to a fairly weak lee trough near the Pecos River in eastern New Mexico. Pattern with the upper ridge axis near the Texas/New Mexico state line favors keeping precip in New Mexico.
603 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 (Today and tonight) The week-long heat wave to come resumes today as the upper high pressure dome over Coahuila and Chihuahua begins to build to the northeast. A weak front will arrive this evening from Kansas as mid-level moisture arrives from the south around the upper high pressure.
By Friday, a strong upper level ridge will move over the region eliminating any chances of rain through the weekend.
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Upper ridging continues to build in tonight and Friday.
As the main mid level ridge continues to build into the central CONUS with the center of the ridge over New Mexico, hot and dry conditions are expected to continue. Going into this evening, light northwest H500 flow downstream of ridge axis over Raton Mesa with a ridge roller moving across the axis. Slight chance of thunderstorms return Friday afternoon, with similar set up and best chances this time in the northwestern Panhandles in closest proximity to mid level perturbation on the periphery of the ridge axis.
1140 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge building to its west, placing the region under northwest flow. As the upper ridge progresses from the Great Basin to the eastern Rockies today and Friday, dry weather, sunny skies, and a warming trend are expected. High temperatures climb from the 80s today to mainly the low 90s on Friday.
May see some mid-level cloud cover near 12kft spilling south and east into the region from Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas along the back side of 7h ridging across the TX and some very thin cirrus late in the TAF period across NE TX but that will just about do it as it pertains to cloud cover. Our region finds itself between the upper ridge centered over the Rio Grande Valley of SW TX and an upper trof axis over the Mid MS Valley. Trof axis to shift ewd tonight into Friday, allowing the ridge to amplify over W TX in its wake.
Smooth sailing today under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and cooler, drier weather. Temperatures today are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, and most sites dropped down into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight. Northerly winds today will continue to bring cooler, dry air into the Tennessee Valley, maxing out temperatures today only in the lower 80s.
1216 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on eastern portion of large H5 ridge centered over the northern Rockies. At the surface a trough was draped from southeast Colorado into central Nebraska. Not much of an airmass difference was noted across it in the Goodland CWA, although trough did mark the separation of strong southerly winds and much lighter conditions. as a result expect clear skies and light winds to allow temperatures to drop into the low 50s at most locations and would not be shocked to see a few spots in the 40s in western zones. Upper level ridge will amplify and move to the east through the period, with strong subsidence and warming temperatures expected.
1116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Upper ridge is building across the central to northern Rockies, with surface ridging extending from southern Plains high pressure. Upper ridging will remain in control through Friday as the main axis crosses the northern Plains.
205 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Winds will begin to decrease after sunset and drop to under 10 mph out of the south thanks to surface ridging. As we are underneath an upper ridge storms over central and south central NM will stay off to our west and northwest. The upper ridge will keep a grip on the region tomorrow keeping storms out of the area once again. Winds will be out of the south to southeast around 15-20 mph tomorrow afternoon in response to another lee trough. Temperatures should roughly be the same as today, maybe a degree or two warmer, as thicknesses remain nearly steady. The upper level ridge remains to our west over much of western CONUS.
An upper level ridge stretching east over the Southeast will shift west as an upper level trough digs south over the eastern Conus. With the upper ridge shifting west and cooler northerly flow through the period, around to a bit below seasonal temperatures and dry conditions are expected. Tonight, low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, upper 60s to around 70 south.
High pressure will build south into the region tonight with winds becoming light and variable. This fog should burn off quickly Friday morning, with another beautiful June day expected as temperatures warm into the low 80s under sunny skies. The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough extending from eastern Canada south into the eastern Conus a ridge expected from Mexico north through the high Plains and a trough entering the wester Conus. At the surface, a cold front with limited moisture is initially expected to extend into the Northeast and then west into the Midwest and then west and northwest into the Plains.
This flow pattern looks to be advecting in drier and more stable air into the RGV wit the better instability values remaining concentrated just south of the Rio Grande closer to the old cold front/stationary front.
313 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Surface analysis showing high pressure centered over Oklahoma, and low pressure and accompanying cool front advancing through the mid-Atlantic states and southeastern CONUS. In the mid-levels, a broad trof is positioned over the northeast CONUS, while high pressure located over south Texas extends northwest through the Rockies. High pressure aloft is expected to amplify as it advances into the Plains Friday, while low pressure deepens over the eastern CONUS. High pressure is expected to maintain an extended dry weather pattern well into the new week.
1251 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 The warming trend will continue across the region today as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Rockies in response to a deepening mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific. Advection of warmer air in southwest flow with sunny to mostly sunny conditions will help temperatures recover to near normal levels this afternoon. On Friday, the eastern Pacific trough develops a clear split as it moves to the West Coast. Concurrently, flow becomes more southerly as the ridge axis is driven eastward over the High Plains.
359 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 A cold front cross the region later this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms possible. The front will bring much drier air for Friday outside of a few mountain showers and storms with temperatures warmer temperatures in most areas tomorrow due given more sun.
Temperatures today will peak as a high pressure ridge builds into the Four Corners region.
High pressure in the mid and upper levels will remain centered over northern Mexico and far west Texas while at the surface, weak high pressure remains in place across the eastern half of Texas. With some drier air in the low-levels, we will continue to see below normal overnight lows generally ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s, along with daytime highs in the 90s.
1017 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Smooth sailing today under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and cooler, drier weather. Temperatures today are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, and most sites dropped down into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight. Northerly winds today will continue to bring cooler, dry air into the Tennessee Valley, maxing out temperatures today only in the lower 80s.
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building into the mid Mississippi River Valley will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the next several days. A cold front crossing the area Friday night should cool temperatures a few degrees for the weekend. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region will be the main influence on central IL weather tonight and Friday, keeping conditions dry and blocking any significant moisture transport into the area. A cold front will push into the area from the north Friday night, lowering temperatures a few degrees for the weekend.
245 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure moving through the region was providing clear skies and a dry airmass with light winds. Temps will fall off rapidly after sunset with lows in the middle/upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s in the west. Northwest flow continues Friday as a ridge strengthens across the eastern Rockies. 850mb temps look to be about 3 degrees warmer than today therefore warmer high temps are expected for Friday. The mid/upper level ridge moves east, further into the central plains for the weekend. The mid level ridge moves closer to the area as the week progresses which will allow for temps to increase a few degrees each day and keep precip chances near zero.
Temperatures are trending slightly warmer in the hourly forecast this morning.
140 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Mid level heights are rising over the region today as the trough and storm system that brought the dust and wind earlier this week lifts up into eastern Canada. At the surface, high pressure is in place over E OK/NW AR, with a surface trof extending from E NM up into W KS. CAM data suggests a few storms may develop this afternoon along the trof, but these storms will probably not cover much real estate before they fall apart this evening and thus no impact on our area.
The Fire Weather Planning Forecast has been updated to reflect the lower than expected humidity. This will help to bring plenty of sunshine and seasonal temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Mid level flow will become more northwesterly on Friday/Friday night as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains and a secondary trof digs southeast into the Great Lakes region. However, any precip with the H50 trof is should remain well northeast of the forecast area. The upper-level ridge over the Plains will slowly advance eastward during the weekend, with progress limited due to a trough over the Eastern U.
Previous discussion: Upper ridging will continue to amplify over the west- central U.
Warmer today, with high temperatures pushing 10-15 degrees above normal.
146 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east and amplify as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. Quiet weather expected through Friday, with warmer temps on track for tomorrow as WAA continues. This will allow slight chances for showers and TS to return as the ridge shifts east and semi-unsettled SW flow spreads into the region. Lee side trough will shift east INVOF NE WY and far western SD Sat afternoon, with late afternoon and eve sct showers and TS expected.
209 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Seasonably cooler, less humid and rain-free conditions are expected through late week and into the weekend.
110 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 A cold front will finish passing through the area by evening with milder and drier air overspreading the region in its wake. Another front will drop through on Friday, with perhaps an isolated shower, but its main impact on our weather will be cooler temperatures to start off the weekend. Weak surface ridging will allow for a period of mainly dry weather for Friday, as temperatures starting in the 50s peak in the 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures drop a few degrees cooler Friday night than on the previous night, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A secondary cold front will also be moving through the area bringing a chance showers with low potential for a thunderstorms towards MBS/FNT this evening. Lingering stronger westerly winds and good boundary layer mixing will lead to breezy day, with probabilistic guidance and soundings indicating gusts 30-35 mph, with higher gusts across northern areas who are further entrenched in the cooler airmass. And yes, realize current gusts (30-40 kts) are even higher at press time, but the low level cold advection is being exhausted. Tight baroclinic zone over the northern Great Lakes will be settling south tonight-Friday, with limited moisture/weak low level convergence cold front tracking south of the Michigan during the day. There is some semblance of 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge working through Friday morning, with PV values > 0.
247 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Quiet conditions this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s north central to the lower 80s south central. Dry and quiet conditions continue tonight, with mostly clear skies and overnight lows around 40 north central to the lower 50s southwest. A pleasant early summer day is expected on Friday, with upper-level ridging beginning to build in across the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s east to the upper 80s southwest, with mostly sunny skies and winds still somewhat breezy, but calmer than today. Should stay dry due to the ridging, so it should be a nice day to start the weekend. An upper-level trough off the west coast of the CONUS is forecast to deepen, with a closed low off the coast of British Columbia.
327 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 At 20Z a mid level ridge was located over the Rockies while an upper trough was located over Ontario. For tonight, dry weather is expected to continue with convection confined to the high plains into southwest Kansas. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s with a light southerly wind. Expect high temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than today.
The increase in onshore flow will keep temps mild overnight in the low to mid 70s, with highs Friday near to slightly below normal, ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to upper 80s/near 90 inland.
This is because a moisture plume ahead of a building ridge is interacting with a weak inverted trough that is moving westward. Since then activity near the Lower Keys and points southwest have great diminished to just light showers. Thereafter a weak pertubation in the low levels (surface to H850) will pivot in from the east with a meager moisture return.
Tranquil weather conditions are being observed today as high pressure begins to move in from the west. Expect overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s to the lower 60s. the region remains underneath deep cyclonic flow as an upper low continues to rotate over the Ohio valley. At the surface however, ridge of high pressure extends into the Tennessee valley. Highs on Friday will rise into the low to mid 80s - near normal for this time of year.
There has been some development in the last hour downstream and just south of the Lower Keys. These showers and storms are thanks to a weak inverted trough moving east to west across our area. Water vapor imagery shows this quite well, including dry air pushing in from the northeast as the ridge builds across the Florida Keys from the western North Atlantic.
218 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure into Friday.
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure into Friday.
306 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Seasonably cooler, less humid and rain-free conditions are expected through late week and into the weekend.
245 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 WV imagery shows that the big ridge has arrived, and will be the prevailing driver of the wx around here for, say, the next 3 months or so. An exception will be this afternoon, where afternoon heating and upslope flow is resulting in high-based convection developing over the higher terrain.
With a dry air mass holding over the area, the low temperatures will be mild in the 60s across inland areas both nights.
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Strong upper level ridging will continue to build into the central Plains through Friday night.
75 with the 500mb trough swinging through has sparked up some showers and thunderstorms.
316 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 A broad upper trough will dominate the east and southeast portion of the country as a front remains stalled just east of Macon to Athens. As a low pressure area develops on the front Friday.
High pressure will bring clear skies and light winds to CHA/TYS/TRI. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 84 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 81 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 10 10.
134 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week under building high pressure. Dry conditions and more comfortable conditions will continue with building high pressure.
244 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Upper ridging continues to build over the area, allowing our temperatures to bounce up into the 80s this afternoon and RH's get down to the low 20s (also being helped by downsloping winds). Tomorrow, the ridging becomes amplified over the area and downsloping winds will persist.
/issued 342 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ (Today and Tonight) With high pressure dominating the region, dry conditions and a warming trend will continue today and tonight. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday and several degrees warmer than those more typical of early June.
Our region finds itself between the upper ridge centered over the Rio Grande Valley of SW TX and an upper trof axis over the Mid MS Valley. Trof axis to shift ewd tonight into Friday, allowing the ridge to amplify over W TX in its wake.
1016 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure aloft and at the surface are in control, and a low dewpoint/RH afternoon can be expected under full sun.
354 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building in from the southern plains will continue cool and dry conditions into Friday. General pattern Friday through Friday night is for persistence of a mid-level ridge over the Central Plains states, with a trough over the Great Lakes into the Northeast states.
Otherwise dry with unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through the short term as a strong upper ridge dominates the region. A thermal ridge will be across the forecast area Friday with 700 mb temperatures of around 15C. Winds will be increasing Friday night especially in the mountains, favored foothills and wind corridors ahead of an approaching trough and associated cold front Friday night.
Overall ridging high pressure continues across the area brining a similar tale for Friday with temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to today.
/Issued 1016 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ High pressure aloft and at the surface are in control, and a low dewpoint/RH afternoon can be expected under full sun.
1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 (Today and tonight) The week-long heat wave to come resumes today as the upper high pressure dome over Coahuila and Chihuahua begins to build to the northeast. A weak front will arrive this evening from Kansas as mid-level moisture arrives from the south around the upper high pressure.
228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows very dry and upper levels with an upper ridge building over the Intermountain West.
/issued 313 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ Surface analysis showing high pressure centered over Oklahoma, and low pressure and accompanying cool front advancing through the mid-Atlantic states and southeastern CONUS. In the mid-levels, a broad trof is positioned over the northeast CONUS, while high pressure located over south Texas extends northwest through the Rockies. High pressure aloft is expected to amplify as it advances into the Plains Friday, while low pressure deepens over the eastern CONUS. High pressure is expected to maintain an extended dry weather pattern well into the new week.
732 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure into Friday.
720 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building in from the southern plains will continue cool and dry conditions into Friday. General pattern Friday through Friday night is for persistence of a mid-level ridge over the Central Plains states, with a trough over the Great Lakes into the Northeast states.
957 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building in from the southern plains will continue cool and dry conditions into Friday. General pattern Friday through Friday night is for persistence of a mid-level ridge over the Central Plains states, with a trough over the Great Lakes into the Northeast states.
Temperatures peak this afternoon, but will drop going into the weekend as a trough of low pressure drops from the Pacific Northwest.
Skies are clear, humidity is low, and temperatures are only forecast to peak in the low 80s this afternoon. We have breezy north winds today gusting to 15-20 mph, which have developed on the leading edge of high pressure building over the Tennessee Valley. High pressure will continue to remain over the area going into this weekend, with clear skies and mild temperatures.
May see some mid-level cloud cover near 12kft spilling south and east into the region from Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas along the back side of 7h ridging across the TX and some very thin cirrus late in the TAF period across NE TX but that will just about do it as it pertains to cloud cover.
727 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Seasonably cooler, less humid and rain-free conditions are expected through late week and into the weekend.
523 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east and amplify as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. Quiet weather expected through Friday, with warmer temps on track for tomorrow as WAA continues. This will allow slight chances for showers and TS to return as the ridge shifts east and semi-unsettled SW flow spreads into the region. Lee side trough will shift east INVOF NE WY and far western SD Sat afternoon, with late afternoon and eve sct showers and TS expected.
/Issued 140 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ Mid level heights are rising over the region today as the trough and storm system that brought the dust and wind earlier this week lifts up into eastern Canada. At the surface, high pressure is in place over E OK/NW AR, with a surface trof extending from E NM up into W KS. CAM data suggests a few storms may develop this afternoon along the trof, but these storms will probably not cover much real estate before they fall apart this evening and thus no impact on our area.
A warming trend with dry weather will continue across the region as high pressure aloft strengthens over the interior west through Friday. Cooler temperatures will return as a Pacific trough works east through the western states this weekend. Upstream, a trough is approaching the West Coast, while downstream the ridge axis extends from the high center over West Texas up through the northern Rockies. As the upstream trough makes its way to the West Coast tomorrow, south winds will increase across the forecast area, with breezy to windy conditions expected, especially across the western valleys. With excellent mixing and further warming of the airmass, temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than it was today, especially across the north, with afternoon maxes expected to run 5-15 degrees above normal.
STP Upper ridging continues to build over the area, allowing our temperatures to bounce up into the 80s this afternoon and RH's get down to the low 20s (also being helped by downsloping winds). Tomorrow, the ridging becomes amplified over the area and downsloping winds will persist.
High pressure across the region will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. With a dry air mass holding over the area, the low temperatures will be mild in the 60s across inland areas both nights.
1032 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 A reinforcing cold front will push through the region early on Friday.
For Friday, it will be warmer both at the surface and aloft. Flow aloft transitions to southwest as the ridge over the region slowly slides east Colorado.
655 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected into the weekend under building high pressure. Dry conditions and more comfortable conditions will continue with building high pressure.
938 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure into Friday.
804 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 A reinforcing cold front will push through the region early on Friday.