Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A deep moist south to southwest flow will remain across the area as high pressure remains to our southeast and TD Cristobal over the Yucatan peninsula drifts north into the central Gulf on Saturday. Widespread cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures in the low/mid 80s across ne Fl.
The large upper level ridge of high pressure which will ultimately help determine the final path of Cristobal will be centered over West Texas on Friday providing a sunny and hot end to the work week with high in the mid 90s. With the large trough to the west the upper ridge will become sandwiched between that trough and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Some of the high resolution models do show some shower activity for Saturday afternoon moving northeast to southwest in that upper level flow. Will discount this for now as the subsidence due to the upper level ridge should be enough to squash any shower and thunderstorm activity that potentially develops over the ArkLaTex.
507 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020 A hot day across southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle w/ upper- level ridging remaining in place alongside 700 hpa temperatures of +15 to +18 deg C. If sufficient surface heating can occur, model guidance shows potential for 55-65 F dew points in the warm sector ahead of the fast-moving cold front with potential for CAPES up to 3000 J/kg in a small window between 18z and 21z.
Upper level trough and cold front pushing through the upper Midwest with a line of broken tstms from western WI to western IA. Today: Scattered thunderstorms especially this morning ahead of the cold front that will push across the cwa. Tonight: In the wake of the cold front gradually lowering dewpoints and light n to ne winds will bring a more comfortable night. This weekend: Sprawling high pressure in Ontario and into the Great Lakes will bring dry weather and comfortable humidity.
As an area of high pressure moves into the region later this morning, the air near the ground looks to become very dry especially across northern Minnesota. As an upper level ridge passes over the area on Saturday, high pressure will keep the area dry.
Upper ridging continues to the west with mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. Temps are mostly in the lower 70s. The upper ridge will start to nose into the middle MS Valley this morning and latest CAMs have the boundary tracking basically due south over the western half of the forecast area. Trended toward the slightly cooler guidance today given the expected MCS. Synoptic guidance is generally missing this convection which explains the warmer high temps.
expect high pressure to build northward across the local area from the southern plains. to the lower 70s across portions of north central Kansas as area mainly east of Highway 281. Expect high pressure aloft to dominate through the upcoming weekend as a trough of low pressure deepens across the west. and high pressure is intensified across the plains. expect the low level flow to once again become southerly over the weekend. as the aforementioned trough and surface cold front shift east bringing lower heights and cooler temperatures back to the region.
Saturday will be another beautiful day, and while still hot, it will be a few degrees cooler than Friday.
A strong cold front will cross the region on Saturday.
616 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 1012 to 1015mb High pressure across western SD will gradually move east this morning and through the day Friday. As this feature sets up in western Minnesota this evening, low pressure out west will be deepening and we start to see the gradient increase across the state. We also see increasingly warmer air off the surface, with 700mb temperatures nearing 13C. Outside of elevated weak convective showers and storms there doesn't appear to be much risk to the CWA until after loss of daytime heating and enhancement of the low level jet which is addressed in the extended discussion.
Daytime highs will reach the lower 90s but heat index values will climb into the upper 90s.
/issued 351 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020/ Weak ridging aloft continues to extend westward over the state from the Atlantic early this morning. At the surface, high pressure remains stretched across the south-central part of the peninsula with Tropical Depression Cristobal meandering over Mexico/Central America.
334 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020 A hot day across southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle w/ upper- level ridging remaining in place alongside 700 hpa temperatures of +15 to +18 deg C. If sufficient surface heating can occur, model guidance shows potential for 55-65 F dew points in the warm sector ahead of the fast-moving cold front with potential for CAPES up to 3000 J/kg in a small window between 18z and 21z.
1055 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a mid-upper level trough over the Bay of Campeche interacting with Tropical Depression Cristobal centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. Mean layer analyses from CIMSS place a broad low-level anticyclone over the western North Atlantic, driving moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. An Atlantic ridge axis will extend westward across Central Florida through tonight.
07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico with ridging extending north into the central Rockies. Highs today are forecast to be close to or a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight should again be on the warm side with readings in the lower 70s thanks to southerly winds and a moist airmass preventing much radiational cooling.
Temperatures are warming very quickly across the Midsouth, already approaching the middle 80s across much of the area with dew points in the low to middle 70s. Upper ridging continues to the west with mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. Temps are mostly in the lower 70s. The upper ridge will start to nose into the middle MS Valley this morning and latest CAMs have the boundary tracking basically due south over the western half of the forecast area. Trended toward the slightly cooler guidance today given the expected MCS. Synoptic guidance is generally missing this convection which explains the warmer high temps.
423 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Upper ridging will suppress convection for much of the area. The main issue today will be elevated fire weather behavior over much of the lower elevations as high temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer in combination of a breezy southwest wind. Have issued a fire danger statement for the lower elevations for much of the region except for the extreme north. A cut-off upper low off the S. California Friday night in response to a strong upper low pulling southeast just off the British Columbia Coast.
648 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 591 MB upper level ridge over mid section of the country will remain in place through Saturday. Meanwhile an upper level trough extending from the Tennessee valley down to the northern Gulf will be the key player in turning Cristobal northward later today. Ridge will slide east over the weekend.
Expect gusty winds this afternoon and chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing through this evening as a weak low pressure system crosses Arizona.
/issued 248 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge will be centered over West Texas today, keeping our area hot and dry. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 90s, except far southeast counties where a few readings in the lower 90s will occur.
/issued 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/ Today the upper level high to our west will start to move over the region and build. Temperatures will peak this afternoon a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.
A cold low pressure trough will bring substantially cooler temperatures, blustery onshore winds, a chance of showers, and isolated thunderstorms this weekend. The marine layer has rapidly deepened overnight and the area of low clouds over the adjacent coastal waters has expanded significantly ahead of an approaching upper trough. Late tonight into Saturday morning, the trough will move onshore. As the trough moves onshore, there will be fairly strong dynamics as well as some instability.
332 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2020 A low pressure system moving inland through southern California tonight will spread cooling inland through Saturday, increase clouds, bring stronger and gusty southwest so west winds in the mountains and deserts through Saturday night, and bring some light precipitation along and west of the mountains into Saturday morning.
834 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms can expected today and again Saturday until passage of a cold front. A slowly advancing upper trough will act as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development through this afternoon, with the best rain chances remaining southeast of Pittsburgh where moisture and instability will be maximized. Deepening low pres digging across Quebec tonight will pull a cold front across the Great Lakes and Upr OH region on Saturday with continued shower and and slight storm chances.
501 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms can expected today and again Saturday until passage of a cold front. Showers continue south of PIT early this morning as weak forcing for ascent continues with the slow advance of an upper trough across the lower and mid OH Valley continues. That trough will continue to support additional showers, and possibly a few storms today, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh where moisture and instability will focus east of the systems trough axis. Deepening low pres digging across Quebec tonight will pull a cold front across the Great Lakes and Upr OH region on Saturday with continued shower and and slight storm chances.
327 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Chance of thunderstorms will occur today over the higher elevations of the Sierra and down into the Kern County Mountains.
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of weak ridging drifting slowly east across the Central/Southern Rockies. Near the surface, a weak cold front is dropping slowly south across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Upper level ridging over the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains is expected to build northeastward through the next few days. The resulting increase in warm mid level temperatures will make it more difficult for afternoon and evening thunderstorms to fire up across western Kansas or even approach the region from the higher terrain along the eastern slopes.
Meanwhile, a system off the coast of California will slowly move inland weakening the mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and driving it out of the CWA.
Cooler and less humid air will then follow for the weekend.
251 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Showers and Storms Late Afternoon/Early Evening - Seasonal and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek - Extratropical System Nears the Great lakes Region Mid Week - Showers and Storms Possible Late Afternoon/Early Evening - A few isolated showers and storms are moving through the area this afternoon as a surface cold front continues to move through lower MI. - Seasonal and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek - A pleasant weekend is in store as mid- and surface-level ridging moves in place.
359 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Cooler and drier conditions will work into the region for the weekend.
An upper ridge over the central Plains begins to build an axis southeast through the TN valley Saturday.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 92 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 68 90 66 / 20 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 92 68 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 87 63 87 60 / 30 20 20 10 10.
1012 to 1015mb High pressure across western SD will gradually move east this morning and through the day Friday. As this feature sets up in western Minnesota this evening, low pressure out west will be deepening and we start to see the gradient increase across the state. We also see increasingly warmer air off the surface, with 700mb temperatures nearing 13C. Outside of elevated weak convective showers and storms there doesn't appear to be much risk to the CWA until after loss of daytime heating and enhancement of the low level jet which is addressed in the extended discussion.
303 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Scattered convection has erupted across much of the area today, with the highest coverage generally along and south of I-20. On Saturday, the trough axis will settle farther southward, focusing the better chance for scattered convection across central Georgia during the afternoon and evening as instability increases. Saturday afternoon will be on the hot side across north Georgia where temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s for some.
The latest HRRR solutions are somewhat puzzling not giving any credit to the lower to middle 60 dewpoints that are surging across western Lower Michigan in tow of this initial shower and thunderstorm activity. Low level thetae scours out rapidly 03-06Z as a cold front pushes across the area. Strong support within the models for surface based ridging this weekend.
Coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity will increase tonight with a cold frontal passage and remain possible throughout the day on Saturday.
An upper level ridge will build east into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day on Saturday. Highs in the lower 90s will occur over most of the area with a few middle 90s readings not out of the question. These temperatures coupled with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s will result in afternoon heat indices of 95 to 105, with the highest readings occurring across southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri.
Week ridging moving in over night is showing favorable conditions of some lowered ceilings starting early in the morning and lasting until mid morning tomorrow.
Due to the higher pop in this area, used a tempo group for the possibilty of a thunderstorm at the terminal. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 69 91 70 92 / 50 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 68 90 68 90 / 70 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 83 67 91 68 90 / 60 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 65 88 63 87 / 60 30 30 20 10.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across portions of West TN, most of North Mississippi and East Central Arkansas where temperatures remain in the 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. For the weekend it should be mostly sunny and hot with daytime temperatures into the low 90's.
Cool and breezy weather this afternoon to last into Saturday as a late season cold front passes over the region.
249 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/dynamic weather is anticipated throughout the weekend.
Should see clearing skies this evening into tonight, with mostly clear skies continuing into Saturday under high pressure.
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a mid-upper level trough over the Bay of Campeche interacting with Tropical Depression Cristobal centered near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Mean layer analyses from CIMSS place a broad low-level anticyclone over the western North Atlantic, driving moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Thereafter, the western Atlantic ridge will build west across Florida, turning our focus back to the east, looking for moisture slugs and inverted swaths of cyclonic curvature. A TUTT-like cell will creep to the west through the last few days of the extended, which would favor small kinks along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge.
With southerly winds/low level moisture returning on Saturday expect dew-points to rise back into the lower to mid 70s across the area with heat indices climbing to around 105 degrees.
451 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity will increase tonight with a cold frontal passage and remain possible throughout the day on Saturday.
Mid level ridging over the area this weekend will suppress convection as we become sandwiched between an upper trough to the west and a land-falling TS to our east.
Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the weekend with heaviest showers in the higher elevations of SE Idaho.
Under weak west to northwest flow aloft, a weak cold front will move through the area on Saturday. The front will slip to our south on Saturday night and a drier and somewhat cooler air mass will arrive.
Dew points in the low to mid 70s are unlikely to mix out substantially, and have been adjusted upward slightly from the NBM model blend starting point. Richer moisture and thus greater buoyancy is expected to flow north ahead of eastward drifting terrain-forced convection across the High Plains.
The low cloud field should stay just south of KSJT and KBBD, where just a scattered low cloud layer is included. The low cloud field should break up by mid-to-late morning. /issued 248 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge will be centered over West Texas today, keeping our area hot and dry. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 90s, except far southeast counties where a few readings in the lower 90s will occur.
But we don't expect anything more than isolated cells as an upper high starts building into Middle Tennessee.
232 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 High pressure over the Atlantic is ridging back across the state as TD Cristobal begins to lift north off of the Yucatan Peninsula. Cristobal lifts north into the northern Gulf coast through the weekend as ridging remains across the local area.
A weak cold front will sag across Indiana late tonight and Saturday. High pressure will build across Central Indiana for the weekend brining dry and less humid weather for the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s across the majority of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon.
Warmer air, along with increasing moisture, will begin working northward into the CWA as we head into Saturday. The risk for weather-related impacts will increase during the mid to late afternoon as the H7 trough approaches and provides better forcing.
Storms will fire over the higher terrain in southwest Montana this afternoon. The low-level jet will ramp up to around 50 knots Saturday evening with around 40 to 50 knots of 0-6km shear. MLCAPE will be on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg with the low-level inversion likely being eroded by 3 to 4 PM or so.
341 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 We will remain under the influence of upper level ridging for the short term, which should keep things dry. Surface front stalled near the CWA southern border will begin moving north as a warm front overnight. As the warm front moves north, some cumulus could form along the warm front, but should remain scattered with lack of moisture. Any convection along the cold front to the west Saturday afternoon and evening should remain mostly west as the front will move very little.
Expect gusty winds this afternoon and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight as a weak low pressure system crosses Arizona.
342 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 In general, looking like a precip free, but hot, weekend across the quad state as a large dome of high pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere gradually builds east from the Plains into the MS River Valley. A weak cold front will slip south through the region late tonight and early Saturday, but there will be little low level convergence along the front. In addition, looks to be very little, if any, mid/upper level support as the high begins to build eastward.
A weak cold front is making its way into the CWA and currently is near a Grinell, to Cedar Rapids, to Bellevue line as of 2 pm. Early afternoon temperatures were in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The cold front will continue to make its way south this afternoon and evening and be near the Iowa-Missouri border by 00z Sat. Skies will clear overnight tonight, with much cooler dewpoints moving into the region. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s is forecast, with afternoon highs reaching the lower 80s.
The mid/upper level ridge currently over West Texas will continue to move eastward tonight and should be located over Central Texas tomorrow afternoon. With the increase in subsidence due to the ridge and limited moisture available, showers will not be anticipated. With the increased subsidence, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for the rest of today and into tomorrow high temperatures tomorrow in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s.
Wind would appear to be the primary hazard given large delta-T-TD spread in the lower levels of the model soundings. A strong warm front with low level winds of 40 to 65 kts lifts through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. Given the steepening lapse rates from an approaching upper level trof and very strong warm air advection progged up the Colorado plains, very large hail is possible also.
1113 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Warm and humid weather is expected today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon with coverage increasing tonight as a cold front passes.
Dry weather is in the forecast for tomorrow as a high pressure ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Relatively cooler air will also advect into the area with overnight lows in the middle 60s and afternoon highs tomorrow in the middle 80s. Warmer lows tonight and highs tomorrow will be across southeast IL.
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 As the cold front draped from ARX to OAX continues to slowly sag southward, skies will remain mostly clear for the MPX CWA through tonight. The aforementioned cold front will retreat northeastward throughout Saturday in response to the development of a surface cyclone over the High Plains.
As of 200 AM MDT, temperatures are ranging from the mid 60s into the lower 70s in spots. The upper level ridge over the south central portion of the country remains intact as the center-piece of a large omega block, stretching from coast to coast.
The region remains in an area of upper level weakness today, with ridges dominating areas to the east and west.
Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-105.
232 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020 (Tonight and Saturday) The upper level ridge will slowly shift east over our area through Saturday.
In general, looking like a precip free, but hot, weekend across the quad state as a large dome of high pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere gradually builds east from the Plains into the MS River Valley. A weak cold front will slip south through the region late tonight and early Saturday, but there will be little low level convergence along the front. In addition, looks to be very little, if any, mid/upper level support as the high begins to build eastward.
711 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Aviation - Showers and Storms Late Afternoon/Early Evening - Seasonal and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek - Extratropical System Nears the Great lakes Region Mid Week - Showers and Storms Possible Late Afternoon/Early Evening - A few isolated showers and storms are moving through the area this afternoon as a surface cold front continues to move through lower MI. - Seasonal and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek - A pleasant weekend is in store as mid- and surface-level ridging moves in place.
542 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/dynamic weather is anticipated throughout the weekend.
/issued 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/ (Tonight and Saturday) The upper level ridge will slowly shift east over our area through Saturday.
747 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 Coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity will increase tonight with a cold frontal passage and remain possible throughout the day on Saturday.