Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Afternoon surface analysis showing most sites coming in with north to northeast winds this afternoon, and this will continue to advect cooler and dryer air into the region through the period. That said the upper level trough axis will lag behind a bit, but is expected to swing into the area tonight into Friday. This as Tropical Storm Hermine tracks northeast into the gulf coast and eventually Carolina's by Friday afternoon, and the aforementioned trough will limit any of the affects from this system on eastern KY. Also helping at the surface will be a broad area of high pressure that will continue to build south and east.
352 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 The only break from typical summertime weather for the ArkLaMiss (hot and periodic chances for showers or thunderstorms) will be with a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into tomorrow.
Models are showing an area of higher RH in the low levels that is expected to slide east to west into southeast WI early Friday morning. Expect a mostly sunny day on Friday with high pressure overhead. Temperatures will be similar to what they were today but just a notch warmer as return flow ensues over us late in the afternoon.
A weak cold front will move through the region during the pd, and may bring some tstms to E TX and SW AR terminals this aftn. Showers and thunderstorms this region have developed out ahead of the cold front that was moving slowly across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas.
/issued 408 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ This afternoon an upper level rough of low pressure extended Southwest across Southwest Arkansas and into North Central Texas and was nudging a cold front into the Four State Region.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and Hurricane Hermine across northern Florida tonight will continue to provide northerly winds aloft across south Texas tonight. The weakness in the ridge across south TX Friday will allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of central and south TX Fri afternoon and this convection will move southward into portions of the CWA.
Otherwise, low pressure will be exiting east allowing for less wind and more sunshine for the rest of the week. Already sprinkling due to some wrap-around moisture arriving from the north as low pressure slowly exits. A departing very cold upper trough Wednesday morning will depart the region but low temperatures could affect tender plants. Departing large short wave which brought rains, some heavy, and even some light mountains snows, will actually leave the region and be replaced by a ridge. Stronger winds associated with the trough and jet will diminish under the ridge. Warmer temps and dry air will move in through the short term.
Otherwise sfc analyses show high pressure centers over the Great Lakes and sern CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows nrly flow wrapping around the cutoff low over the Carolinas lingering over the wrn Gulf, while weak ridging is noted over wrn/srn TX. Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today with fairly widely scattered afternoon convection developing mainly over the LA zones as the boundary drifts ewd ahead of the TX mid-level ridge which is progged to begin building toward the forecast area.
200 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Another quiet and drier day so far with the upper low spinning off to our east. These will mainly be diurnally forced today, but tomorrow, the upper low creeps northwestward, so chances for showers and storms will be a bit higher.
Dew points will remain nearly steady around the lower 60s and upper 50s. Cloud cover will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon ahead of the incoming cold front and associated precipitation. Depending on the rate of progression of both the upper level short wave and associated surface cold front, shower and storm chances begin increasing late Thursday afternoon around 00z.
229 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Dry southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper level trough over the No rthern Rockies brought another very warm and dry day to the area. A cold front will dive south across eastern Colorado overnight. Gusty north winds up to 50 mph will accompany the cold front. The approaching trough and the right entrance region of the jet is expected to provide lift to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
236 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Upper level closed low will continue to influence our weather through the short term. We remain dry and fair overnight but overnight lows will be warmer than previous evening from the upper 50s and low 60s. Dew points will climb back into the low to middle 60s.
This subtle uptick in moisture and a further increase during the day combined with daytime heating should support some sea breeze driven scattered shower and isolated storm development over the forecast area during the afternoon with the highest pops (40-50%) and best coverage likely to focus over southern most zones during the late afternoon and early evening hours where better moisture will reside, with slightly lower coverage further to the north. Nice boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as weak high pressure remains in control with light east southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Cooler air then begins to move in with highs in the 70s on Thursday.
However, a storm system moving into the central Appalachians will spread some moisture westward across the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. The models have trended a bit further west with the low track, taking it to the Kentucky/West Virginia border Thursday. The emphasis will be on the word isolated, since the high-res models indicate very little in the way of coverage of precip. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 60s. The medium range guidance is generally consistent in moving the high pressure ridge over the WFO PAH forecast area, sandwiched between the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic closed low and the southern Canadian low, at the beginning of the period eastward through next Wednesday.
Fri looks to be drier and seasonally mild, as a Canadian airmass descends upon the Northern Plains behind the departing cold front. Afternoon highs look to be in the seasonal 70s with cooler overnight lows from the upper 40s into the 50s. The weekend for our region still looks to feature an upper low north of the border likely to spin a couple of spokes/lobes through the forecast area. This current precip will dissipate with stronger convection developing along a cold front moving in later tonight.
343 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A warm, moist southerly flow of air will persist tonight ahead of an approaching cold front currently in the Dakotas. The cold front is forecast to reach the western edge of the forecast area late Thursday afternoon. The cold front moves into northwest Wisconsin Thursday night. A clearing trend begins to work across northeast Minnesota late Thursday night as high pressure arrives from the West.
CONUS mid-level water vapor imagery currently shows a deepening trough centered over the Idaho/Montana/Wyoming region and a cutoff low continuing to spin over North Carolina and Virginia.
Very quiet weather will continue through this period as an upper level ridge remains over the region while slowly pushing east. Thursday night we will see the front begin to approach the area as high pressure and upper level ridge push out but we will likely remain dry overnight Thursday as well.
Extensive cumulus field over the western half of South Central Texas today, but less convection than the last couple of days showing the upper ridge has strengthened. The upper ridge will tilt a bit to the east, but remain in place over Texas. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping moist air in place. We have also gone a couple of degrees above the model blend on high temperatures Thursday since it has consistently underperformed with it's cooler forecast.
A large upper ridge was located over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes leading to clear skies and quiet weather. Very warm today as highs reach the mid to upper 80s under the stubborn upper-level ridge that has brought dry weather since late last week. Mild conditions are forecast tonight with temps falling into the lower 60s. Overnight, a cold front responsible for the increasing clouds will be slowly pushing east across Iowa, which will likely have showers and storms ongoing along it as it does.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 (Today and tonight) The long wave trough to our northwest, currently centered over Idaho, will move slowly east today.
Otherwise, outside of these areas, dry air in the lower levels and warmth aloft will hinder convective potential, but help surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s. The only potential fly in the ointment continues to be a mid/upper low over the Carolinas. In general, it has been helping to maintain drier northerly flow across our area with disturbed weather remaining to our east nearer to the low center. It will be seasonably warmer today with highs beginning to approach 90 again in some areas.
/Issued 347 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ The upper-level closed low that has brought extremely pleasant weather conditions to the forecast area will slowly meander northward through the short term, allowing more classic summertime- like conditions to slowly begin filtering in through the rest of the week as the Rex block pattern over the eastern CONUS begins to break down. Tomorrow, the closed low will lift from NC into the Ohio River valley, further releasing its hold over the forecast area. Highs will rise to the low-to mid 80s with increased chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
The cold front approaches from the west during the evening and moves into the area later tonight. Even with the cold front moving into the area, temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows mostly around 70.
1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 1243 AM CDT A rinse and repeat forecast is in store for today and Thursday as the area remains firmly under a ridge wedged between deep troughing centered over the northern Rockies and a stalled mid-level low over the Mid-Atlantic states. A few pieces of guidance show spits of QPF in the southeast CWA Thursday afternoon under weaker capping on the northwest periphery of the low to the east. Corresponding dew points in the low to mid 60s with this guidance appear overdone, and with no forcing in the area, will maintain a dry forecast.
Early morning satellite imagery continues to depict the blocking pattern across the US, with little progress in either upper low over Idaho or the Carolinas. Highs climb back into the 90s for much of the area today with warmer mid 90s central.
/issued 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/ A couple of upper level lows are poised across the country early this morning. To our east, one low is situated across the Carolinas with high pressure remaining over the Great Lakes and extending southwestward into Chihuahua. It could be possible that a few quarters could be generated given the dry subcloud layer but coverage of the higher end threats should remain limited. Additionally, a weak short wave in the flow aloft will be approaching the area with the ridge axis just east of the FA.
A persistent upper level ridge will remain anchored across the central CONUS through Thursday. By late Thursday, a pattern change will be underway as the upper ridge axis finally shifts to the east with the approach of stronger trough emerging from the Intermountain West. A surface cold front will slowly approach the area late Thursday and become quasi- stationary as the upper support lifts off into Canada.
Did keep some low pops in the area for late afternoon into early evening as there may be an isolated thunderstorm or two that initially develop near the sfc trof. Min RH will be low again across the southwest and western Nebraska with values in the low to mid teens, in combination with continued green-up, fire weather concerns will remain elevated. The front will move through the area by Thursday with cooler temperatures in store as highs will only be in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Daytime heating of this moist axis and slightly cooler 700mb temps over southeast Kansas could give way to a few weak showers or storms. Otherwise the upper level trough over the northwestern states early this morning will slide eastward for today into Thursday.
Temperatures this morning are a degree or two warmer than this time yesterday and with mostly clear skies, it would not surprise me to see a few spots of fog around sunrise as dew point depressions close in on zero. Today will be very similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two warmer. A very isolated shower or rumble of thunder is possible on the southern half of the Cumberland Plateau as we continue to deal with the effects of an upper level low east of the state. The upper low begins to pull northward and as it does, a slight westward wobble could open the door for widely scattered showers or a thunderstorm across all of Middle TN.
Convection is expected to develop along the cold front late this afternoon, and spread eastward into the western forecast area by 06Z tonight. Strong deep layer shear will be supplied by the aforementioned upper trough lifting across Manitoba.
Today Through Thursday Night High pressure to the northeast of Arkansas will begin to weaken today into Thursday. At the same time, the upper ridge we've been talking about for days on end will break down. As the ridge breaks down, longwave pattern will become more zonal to southwesterly, which will help bring the next system toward the region.
Temperatures should be a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Thursday: A relief to the heat will finally come in form of a cold front. A cold front is currently located over western Nebraska but it will stall out today. It will be reinforced by a low pressure system which is currently located over Idaho. The cold front will move slowly over Nebraska before eventually stalling out over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The northeast counties of Nebraska, high temperatures will likely top out around 80 to 85 degrees as the cold front moves through the area in the early afternoon.
With slow NW movement of upper level low thru 18/24Z, believe proximity to upper level movement track warrants VCTS CSV mentioned 18/17Z-18/24Z.
Fri looks to be drier and seasonally mild, as a Canadian airmass descends upon the Northern Plains behind the departing cold front. Afternoon highs look to be in the seasonal 70s with cooler overnight lows from the upper 40s into the 50s. The weekend for our region still looks to feature an upper low north of the border likely to spin a couple of spokes/lobes through the forecast area.
As this occurs, expect surface winds to begin to veer as a cold front approaches from the north, with brief gusts in the 25-30 knot range possible at DHT and GUY Thursday morning following the frontal passage.
530 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. High pressure will remain across the area tonight as a closed low over the Carolinas begins to drift northwest into the central Appalachians. Clear skies for much of the night tonight before some mid/high clouds begin to spread northward into the area ahead of the closed low. The closed low will remain nearly stationary over the central Appalachians Thursday and Thursday night. Bit more humidity arrives during the day Thursday with surface dewpoints creeping into the lower 60s, especially across the Southern Tier. Upper low to our south and southwest straddling the OH/PA boarder will slowly drift a bit further north then move east while fading away during this period.
850mb temps may climb 1-2 deg across the area therefore conditional climatology would correlate that to high temps to be a little warmer than previous days with some low 90s expected in the western areas.
900 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Periodic scattered showers will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low transitions north and across the region. Locations mainly south and east of PGH may see few isolated light showers (sprinkles) but in general, the area outside of the ridges will not experience measurable precip given the relatively dry low and mid levels as per eve and model soundings. The aforementioned upper low will remain the dominant feature through the end of the work week as it slowly fills and transitions across the region.
Westerly flow around deep low pressure over North Carolina and an slight increase in moisture/instability over ne Florida has resulted in an active west coast seabreeze this afternoon.
An upper disturbance will move in from the north on Thursday and bring a chance of showers/slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms to the higher elevations of central Idaho. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies, light winds, and warmer temperatures.
Most of the high res guidance suggest this activity weakening over the next hour or so but based off of current radar trends, went ahead and included a mention of thunder west of a Pandale to Comstock line. Extensive cumulus field over the western half of South Central Texas today, but less convection than the last couple of days showing the upper ridge has strengthened. The upper ridge will tilt a bit to the east, but remain in place over Texas. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping moist air in place. We have also gone a couple of degrees above the model blend on high temperatures Thursday since it has consistently underperformed with it's cooler forecast.
Overnight into early Thursday morning, a cold front moves through the forecast area, bringing temperatures back in line with the average, or slightly below average, temperatures for this time of year.
343 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An upper low/trough moving northeast through Montana today lifting into the Canadian Prairies tonight and Thursday will continue to be the main weather maker. Rain and snowshowers across the region have been north and west of the low track with the exception of some showers over the eastern zones dissipating this evening. An upper low will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairies on Thursday.
An upper low noted in afternoon satellite imagery and objective analysis continues to spin over the Yellowstone region, while the associated surface front has pushed into far south central and southeastern Utah. Showers which have developed underneath the upper low across southern Idaho may spread southward into far northern Utah this evening, otherwise the airmass across the forecast area remains dry. Have maintained a mention of patchy fog across the Wasatch Back and other sheltered areas of far northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, where min temps will dip to near freezing tonight. The Yellowstone low is forecast to fill and lift northeast over the next 24 hours, while a trailing mid level trough axis lingers across the eastern Great Basin.
928 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Upper low along NC/VA border continues to throw patchy clouds back into the region, and will do so through the night. Upper level closed low will continue to influence our weather through the short term. We remain dry and fair overnight but overnight lows will be warmer than previous evening from the upper 50s and low 60s. Dew points will climb back into the low to middle 60s.
512 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Latest upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS with closed low over eastern Idaho. Ridging in place across the central CONUS. Skies are mostly sunny across the Northern Plains this afternoon with some cloud cover moving in from the west associated with the Idaho upper low. At the surface, low pressure is located over southern Manitoba with a slow moving cold front extending south through western and central South Dakota. Upper low across Idaho will shift into Wyoming tonight as surface cold front in central SD moves very little. Decent instability and shear ahead of the cold front across far south central SD will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening with hail and strong winds the main concern.
There has been little change to the overall pattern since early this morning, with the upper low still circulating over the Carolinas and the other upper trough over ID/MT ahead of surface lee troughing in eastern CO. This cloud cover should dissipate into the evening after highs top out in the low to mid 90s area-wide. As a result, we'll see mostly clear skies overnight with southerly winds keeping morning temperatures in the low 70s.
Upper level trough has now pushed into the Great Basin as a strong upper level ridge begins to build in. Upper level ridging will continue to build in on Thursday and we will see widespread mid to upper 90s across the valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop during the afternoon with the highest moisture and upper level support over south central Louisiana. Otherwise sfc analyses show high pressure centers over the Great Lakes and sern CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows nrly flow wrapping around the cutoff low over the Carolinas lingering over the wrn Gulf, while weak ridging is noted over wrn/srn TX. Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today with fairly widely scattered afternoon convection developing mainly over the LA zones as the boundary drifts ewd ahead of the TX mid-level ridge which is progged to begin building toward the forecast area.
A thunderstorm or two could develop across northern Elko County Thursday before the pesky low pressure system finally moves along.
Upper low continues sluggish movement over general region. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 65 88 66 / 10 30 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 82 64 85 64 / 10 30 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 58 82 62 85 64 / 10 30 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 77 59 80 60 / 30 60 40 80 30.
810 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. High pressure will remain across the area tonight as a closed low over the Carolinas begins to drift northwest into the central Appalachians. Clear skies for much of the night tonight before some mid/high clouds begin to spread northward into the area ahead of the closed low. The closed low will remain nearly stationary over the central Appalachians Thursday and Thursday night. A bit more humidity arrives during the day Thursday with surface dewpoints creeping into the lower 60s, especially across the Southern Tier. Upper low to our south and southwest straddling the OH/PA boarder will slowly drift a bit further north then move east while fading away during this period.
Few-sct cirrus generated by meandering low pressure over eastern CONUS may skim southeast WI overnight. Quiet, pleasant conditions to continue through Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures. VFR conditions to continue this forecast period with lighter surface winds continuing due to nearby high pressure over the Great Lakes into the Northeast CONUS. Very quiet weather will continue through this period as an upper level ridge remains over the region while slowly pushing east. Thursday night we will see the front begin to approach the area as high pressure and upper level ridge push out but we will likely remain dry overnight Thursday as well.
305 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Shower activity today has focused across the Big Horn Basin, ahead of the low spinning across eastern ID this afternoon. The low opens up and sweeps east tonight into tomorrow, focusing the precip mainly across Yellowstone and the Absarokas in the NW flow behind the low.
503 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The cold front is slowly making headway through the I-70 corridor this afternoon extending from near Canyonlands NP to Oak Creek. The main system pushing this front is located up across the northern Rockies where snow has been falling at the higher elevations of Idaho. but cooler.
Another relatively cool night is in store as minimums settle in the low to mid 60s.