Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little cooler today, especially across our southeast counties, where mostly cloudy skies are expected. Weak low pressure will track northeast along the Rio Grande this morning, then weaken as it crosses into the higher terrain of Mexico later this afternoon. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s over southeast counties, to the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley.
418 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures tonight and Saturday.
1043 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Upper level trough across Deep South Texas continues to spin moisture northward and this is being enhanced by a strong shear axis that extends north and east along the coast almost towards Sabine Pass and into Southeast Louisiana. A due southerly fetch in the lower levels with speeds approaching 30kts in the 4-6kft level continues to help advect this moisture northward this morning which is helping to hold temperatures down.
Temps will be a bit warmer and more firmly in the 80s with more sunshine on Saturday.
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be a little cooler today, especially across our southeast counties, where mostly cloudy skies are expected. Weak low pressure will track northeast along the Rio Grande this morning, then weaken as it crosses into the higher terrain of Mexico later this afternoon. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s over southeast counties, to the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley.
(This evening through Saturday) Upper level low continues to spin across South Central Texas, with fairly widespread showers and storms spreading northwest across the Hill Country and Heartland. Most of this will die before sunset, leaving just a few showers across the I-10 corridor closer to the upper low itself. CAM's aren't showing much in the way of convection tomorrow and its confined to the extreme southern locations, as the upper low weakens and fills.
08z surface analysis had low pressure over western NE with trough into the western Dakota. A cold front intersected the front from western ND into western WY. Earlier convection mostly east/south of the CWA, but a few echoes remain per leftover cape/forcing ahead of upper low spinning over north central ND. Saturday, upper low moves southeast into the Midwest.
These storms, which are mostly being steered by northwesterly mid-level flow, are slowly drifting southeastward and losing some forward momentum due to high pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the Gulf ridge is producing southwesterly low-level flow over the area, and as convection initiates along the coastal locations this afternoon, that activity will also drift towards the southern portions of the forecast area. Mid-level ridging remains planted over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow while an upper low develops over the Southeast.
After a few morning showers across west central and northwest Montana, the region will once again become dry and hot under strengthening high pressure.
A weak cold front extends westward across central/ southwest Nebraska while a slightly better defined warm front drops south-southeastward across southwest Iowa into Missouri. The second area of convective activity is expected to fire off the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/Colorado and then race eastward across Nebraska, potentially growing upscale into some kind of linear system. Lows tonight will be dependent on cloud cover, but most areas should drop into the low to mid 60s. Given cloudy skies and periods of rain, temperatures Saturday will only rise into the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 1043 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021/ Upper level trough across Deep South Texas continues to spin moisture northward and this is being enhanced by a strong shear axis that extends north and east along the coast almost towards Sabine Pass and into Southeast Louisiana. A due southerly fetch in the lower levels with speeds approaching 30kts in the 4-6kft level continues to help advect this moisture northward this morning which is helping to hold temperatures down.
Another mid level trough will set up across the region later today into tonight, resulting in another round of scattered showers/storms from eastern Montana through central ND developing later this afternoon and evening.
Looking for convection to wane for Saturday before an upper low moves into the center of the country.
332 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region this evening. Behind the front, weak high pressure build across the area for the weekend.
A mid level trough will dig and become more negatively-tilted late tonight across the Upper Midwest, with a deformation zone developing north of the mid level low across central/southern MN. The upper low will continue to dig and eventually cut itself off from the prevailing flow late Saturday.
316 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Low level moisture was increasing over the forecast area this afternoon as a warm front moved northeastward from southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas into south central and central Missouri. Convection-allowing models continue to show a convective complex developing in this area during the evening as the low level jet lifts moisture over stalled front and an upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest. This system will move southeastward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri early tomorrow morning but will likely dissipate with loss of the low level jet.
w/the E periphery of this ridge protruding over W TX and SE NM. A weak cold front is expected to progress thru the TX Panhandle into the S TX Plains Saturday evening.
The low pressure system that has drenched South Texas has finally become someone else's problem (Sorry, San Antonio and Houston)! Mid- level ridging will build in Saturday, but with PWATs remaining around 2.
A quick surface analysis shows the low spinning over Zavala County and moving west. The rain showers associated with this low is spread across the CWA with varying rain rates, up to 4 inches per hour in our counties furthest east. Turn Around, Don't Drown! Hi-res models are showing a quiet overnight period as the low weakens as it spins into Mexico, but some lingering showers remain as there is still deep moisture and little in the way of limiting factors.
At the surface, a deepening region of low pressure is centered over Colorado, producing breezy northeasterly winds and weak low level upslope flow over the forecast area this afternoon. May see a few storms try to develop along the convergence zone over the Black Hills during the rest of the afternoon, but the main activity will develop over northeastern Wyoming during the late afternoon and spread southeastward due to increasing ascent associated the the upper trough. On Saturday, the upper trough will continue to move off to the east of the region.
/issued 753 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021/ Deep layer ridging resides across FL and most of the Gulf of Mexico through this evening with moisture rich air. The heat indices reach 95 to 105 with the higher values inland. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the state with a relaxed gradient.
1030 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Mid level ridging, an eastward extension of the large and dominant western CONUS ridge, will maintain hot, humid and dry conditions today. High based shower and isolated storm activity dropping southeast across KS should continue to weaken as we head toward the warmer part of the day. Upper wave will dive southeast out of the central Plains on Saturday with cold front pushing to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border by late afternoon.
247 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Upper level high pressure continues to remain to our west today with ridging extending across the forecast area.
/Cote' 18Z TAFS: Mostly dry and VFR conditions with high pressure building in. Wildfires near toward the lower ID Panhandle and Blue Mountains is expected to expand later today into Saturday, potentially bringing MVFR conditions near KLWS and KPUW.
/Issued 1030 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021/ Mid level ridging, an eastward extension of the large and dominant western CONUS ridge, will maintain hot, humid and dry conditions today. High based shower and isolated storm activity dropping southeast across KS should continue to weaken as we head toward the warmer part of the day. Upper wave will dive southeast out of the central Plains on Saturday with cold front pushing to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border by late afternoon.
Otherwise, the highest POPs are actually after midnight, as the upper level forcing pivots over the area.
210 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021 An upper low over central Montana is helping to develop cumulus clouds across the CWA this afternoon. Look for them to diminish later this evening as the upper low drifts to our southeast. Saturday, the absence of the upper low will allow the upper high over the Desert SW to build across Montana.
High pressure in control is ensuring clear skies persist, which will lead to another cool night, especially in the interior. Tomorrow, temps will be on the rebound, reaching well into the 70s with some low 80s reemerging in typically warmer locations. Saturday night, we'll still be under the influence of upper level ridging across the area. Upstream, a positively tilted trough is progged to cut itself off over the eastern Plains with surface cyclogensis over Missouri.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Broad troughing dominates northeast NOAM early this afternoon. Large scale features change little tonight, with troughing dominating the mid and upper levels, while high pressure controls the surface. Good radiational cooling conditions indeed, likely helping temperatures drop back down into the 40s across much of the interior, with slightly warmer conditions near the big waters.
Where will the warm front set up? 2. Will forcing be strong enough to break the fairly stout cap over the area (per the KOAX 19Z sounding)? As of around 2:30 PM, radar/satellite/surface obs show the warm front from roughly Tekamah, NE, eastward to near Carroll, IA, and south/southeastward toward Creston, IA. That said, if something does get going, plenty of instability with just over 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE per the KOAX 19Z sounding, and decent shear would suggest supercells capable of all hazards, especially right near the warm front where low level shear is likely enhanced. Main severe storm threat should exit the area by 5 AM or so, but expect scattered showers and storms to persist through Saturday as a mid/upper level trough currently over Montana digs into the area and eventually cuts off.
Broad high pressure over the western Great Lakes has created another day of mostly sunny skies, light winds, and overall quiet weather across the region.
Highs today near average in the low to mid-90s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows overnight mainly in the low 70s.
Upper level high pressure will persist over the Gulf of Mexico as an upper trough over the Appalachians and east coast becomes more diffuse and zonal. Lows tonight will continue to be warm, in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s near the coast. Highs Saturday afternoon will then be a touch warmer, in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
The monsoon ridge center is elongated across the northern Arizona border with considerable easterly flow aloft. Storms will again fire up over the higher terrain to the northeast and storm motion is toward the west/southwest.
338 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region this evening. Behind the front, weak high pressure build across the area for the weekend.
Temperatures tomorrow will be in the 85 to 95 degree range, a bit warmer than previous forecasts. This may not necessarily indicate significant wetting rain in any given locations, although some locations may receive appreciable amounts, but should help keep temps a bit cooler than seen in recent days and weeks.
This afternoon, a warm front continues to push north across the central Plains. A better chance of storms arrives tonight as a mid-level wave kicks off an MCS across the high Plains. There is uncertainty as to timing and severity of any development later in the day as some guidance suggests showers and cloud cover will limit afternoon instability and some have the cold front almost out of our area by peak heating. The upper trough associated with this system becomes a closed low Saturday night over the MS River Valley. Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures for the weekend behind the front with highs in the 70s and 80s, followed by a warm-up back into the 90s for the start of the work week.
Upper level trough will kick through the region overnight, and is helping to create some scattered light rain showers across mainly New York state. We will also have some upper level ridging over the area through the near term.
High pressure and clear skies will bring a nice day for Upper Michigan with most locations into the 70s and a few mid to upper 60s along Superior. The strongest winds today will occur as the lake breeze, or quasi cold front, moves through the location. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than tonight though. Saturday night, we'll still be under the influence of upper level ridging across the area. Upstream, a positively tilted trough is progged to cut itself off over the eastern Plains with surface cyclogensis over Missouri.
-Warm and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms especially Saturday afternoon We start the period with west/northwest flow aloft under the broad eastern US trough, but flow will start to gain more of a southerly component as an upper trough begins to drop into the Mississippi Valley region and ridging begins to build over the eastern US.
722 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region this evening. Behind the front, weak high pressure build across the area for the weekend.
Increasing precip chances will occur from N-S just beyond the period as a cold front advances south.
We should have very moist and calm conditions overnight with temperatures and dewpoints staying in the low to mid 70s. The highest chances will be for SRQ/LAL southward, but some outflows could push some storms near PIE. High pressure will continue to dominate weather conditions through the period.
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level low continues to spin across South Central Texas, with fairly widespread showers and storms spreading northwest across the Hill Country and Heartland. Most of this will die before sunset, leaving just a few showers across the I-10 corridor closer to the upper low itself. CAM's aren't showing much in the way of convection tomorrow and its confined to the extreme southern locations, as the upper low weakens and fills.
The heat will be due to amplification of the upper ridge in the Great Basin.
Low level moisture was increasing over the forecast area this afternoon as a warm front moved northeastward from southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas into south central and central Missouri. Convection-allowing models continue to show a convective complex developing in this area during the evening as the low level jet lifts moisture over stalled front and an upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest. This system will move southeastward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri early tomorrow morning but will likely dissipate with loss of the low level jet.
823 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures tonight and Saturday.
1025 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Much later start to the storms today allowed strong heating to produce max temps in the low to mid 90s. It was a little cooler aloft so there was a greater downburst potential and a couple storms produced 50 knots on radar, prompting severe warnings.
Dew points are still in the low 60s to upper 50s in those areas, but drier area is approaching from the east. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a more organized Rimshot event resulting in widespread thunderstorm chances as precip propagates all the way out into the lower deserts overnight. Steering winds are a touch more northeasterly as well as the high repositions a little more to the west over Las Vegas. Over the next several days the high meanders about this general area, keeping persistent northeasterly flow for us.
Currently, upper-level ridging will continue to amplify over the next few days with a strengthening area of high pressure retrograding westward through the Desert Southwest.
842 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures tonight and Saturday.
1043 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Currently - A surface through mid level Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida resulting in gentle northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Meanwhile, the Keys are situated between a mid and upper level low over the eastern Bahamas and ridging in the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Ridging will dominate Keys weather through the overnight period, maintaining gentle northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle northeast to east breezes across Keys waters overnight.
Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to develop across the region this afternoon in response to the persistent low pressure area centered over south Texas.
920 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
As upper trough lies over the eastern states this evening skies will be partly cloudy overnight but a new impulse in the northwest flow through the trough will move in late tonight and early Saturday.
Dewpoints in the low 70s providing plenty of moisture and PWAT values showing 1.
958 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A weak cold front will cross the region overnight. Behind the front, weak high pressure build across the area for the weekend.
Southeast winds and daytime heating will help lift and scatter the low clouds, with VFR returning late morning into the early afternoon. A quick surface analysis shows the low spinning over Zavala County and moving west. The rain showers associated with this low is spread across the CWA with varying rain rates, up to 4 inches per hour in our counties furthest east. Turn Around, Don't Drown! Hi-res models are showing a quiet overnight period as the low weakens as it spins into Mexico, but some lingering showers remain as there is still deep moisture and little in the way of limiting factors.
A cold front will move through the area this morning shifting winds to the north.
453 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and southern U. up into the Canadian Rockies with troughing across the Great Lakes region into New England.
A weak upper ridge was located over the northern Gulf of Mexico and extended northward into Alabama. Best chances of rain today will be across the northeast counties which is on the east side of the ridge axis. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest States tonight and dig southward.
1256 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures today. High pressure will keep the day dry with increased sunshine and comfortable conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight as a warm front approaches the forecast area. The risk for showers and storms continue on Sunday as the warm front continues to press northward and another upper level wave swings through.
Otherwise, a quiet night is expected with temps not dropping much more since they are already rain cooled in the low to mid 70s. Weak mid and upper level troughing will persist across our region with deep layer ridging centered well to our west and east. Scattered to numerous storms are once again expected on Sunday as a mid level trough amplifies over the Midwest south into the Lower MS River Valley. A deeper southwest flow develops across our region in response to this trough, which will set the stage for the increased storm chances. Likely POPs will be maintained over the western half of the area, which will be in closer proximity to the trough and mid level height falls. Near normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Strong upper ridge continues with hot to very hot conditions expected this weekend in many areas of East Idaho.
Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s each day with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Ridging builds into the forecast area during the coming week. Broad upper trough over the eastern conus with west/northwest flow aloft. Trough lifts northeast during the afternoon allowing upper ridge to build in from the western Atlantic tonight. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the low 70s. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Given the more Nwd shift of the seabreeze convection and associated outflow bndrys this afternoon, evening temps are running some 1-6 degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago, which should allow temps tonight to cool to near if slightly cooler than what was observed this morning. Should see even lesser convective coverage Saturday as the weak shear axis drifts farther offshore, with the seabreeze convection weaker and confined mainly over portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, around the H850-700 ridge anchored just offshore the AL/NW FL coasts.
1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 In the wake of Tropical Storm Elsa, a cold front will move through the area tonight. After a brief lull on Saturday, a warm front will approach for Sunday in association with low pressure tracking towards the Great Lakes. A cold front continues to push southeast and has mostly passed across the region. Meanwhile, a trough/low across the Plains and Ohio Valley region will remain in place through early mid week and then eject out across the Great Lakes area. The heat will return with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s, but 80s in the mountains and along the coast.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The first half of the short term forecast is pretty benign as the area remains under the influence of weak ridging from the eastern extension of the broad upper ridge focused focused over the SW US. Our weak upper trough along the south-central RGV is still making a presence with isolated to widely scattered convection southeast of the forecast area. Temps will be a bit cooler on Sunday thanks to the front with greater areal extent of 80s and 90s primarily along the river valleys.
220 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Cold front moved through southeast Wyoming last night and is currently located across northern Colorado this morning. Pretty uneventful day weather wise today as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Warmer temperatures return Sunday with 700mb temperatures warming by 5-6C.
These clouds will make for a mostly cloudy start to the day for much of the forecast area but we expect this cloud deck to scatter by mid morning resulting in another very pleasant summer day across West Texas with high temperatures right around average readings for this time of year, in the lower to mid 90s. Mid-level pressure ridge that has dominated local weather for the last few days will weaken and shift south through the first 24 hours of this forecast. This wave will force a cold front through the region beginning late this afternoon through tonight. JW West Texas will be positioned between a maturing low over the northeastern midwest and a strong dome of high pressure centered near KLAS by Sunday morning.
Showers and storms decrease in coverage this evening as we lose heating but will keep some slight chance POPs in overnight due to a deep upper low approaching from the northwest.
414 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 A warm front will drift slowly north into the state on Sunday, ushering in higher humidity and hotter temperatures.
417 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Weak high pressure will promote fair dry weather across the region to start the weekend. weak high pressure will promote generally fair dry weather. disorganized area of low pressure over the Ohio valley on Sunday will start to push a warm front in our direction.