Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early this morning an upper level trough was located over the western U. while a ridge extended across the eastern Plains south into the Gulf. Weak embedded waves were moving northeast out of the base of the trough and into western Kansas south into eastern New Mexico where scattered convection was occurring at 0730Z. Temperatures today will be limited in the lower to mid 80s dues to clouds limiting insolation. Saturday, a cold front is forecast to extend from northwest Iowa into south central Nebraska into southwest Kansas by late afternoon. The lead trough is forecast to lift northeast into the northern Plains on Saturday which will move the front further south.
Highs today look to only reach into the low to mid 80s with lows tonight ranging from around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas. A cold front is progged to move through the area Saturday afternoon shifting winds to the northeast behind it.
The upper trough will move over the Dakotas bringing much cooler air with highs expected to be closer to average in the 70s.
Widespread rain will develop across southwest Montana as low pressure moves into the region. This weekend is shaping up to be a really nice thanks high pressure moving over the region.
Summer temperatures will continue this afternoon with highs expected to get into the low 80s for most of the area.
1016 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Breezy to windy conditions will continue across the area today as strong ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic states remains in place.
The boisterous boundary layer flow is due to the enhanced gradient between a robust high pressure cell over North Carolina and festering lower pressure over the Caribbean.
/issued 409 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A weak inverted mid-level trough will slide west into the western Gulf of Mexico under elongated 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf Coast.
/issued 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of an upper level ridge today (592dm at 500mb), centered over GA/AL.
635 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and warm days to NY and PA through the weekend.
/issued 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ Beginning of an active period starts today as tropical moisture makes its way north into parts of the area and multiple troughs impact the Southern Plains. Meanwhile across western sections, models show an embedded wave ejecting northeast out of the larger scale western trough this afternoon and evening.
Still some indication of a weak wave moving west under the the upper ridge into south Georgia.
350 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Tonight and Saturday: The mid levels will pretty much remain unchanged through tomorrow with ridge anchored over MS/AL. Meanwhile at the surface, airmass change continues from east to west as a back door cold front, over the far western portions continues moving west. To the west of the boundary, dewpoints remained in the lower 70s with enough lift to support scattered showers and thunderstorms.
238 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
Morning satellite pics show the closed low over s-central Idaho this morning with a slow eastward track. Today will be cloudy, cool and breezy with showers wrapping around the backside of the low from north to south.
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 More of the same in the short term, with much warmer than normal temperatures and mainly dry weather on tap for eastern Kentucky through the weekend.
127 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will certainly improve as a western trough translates eastward through this weekend. Southwest flow will increase across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma today, as part of the western trough moves northeast across the Rockies and northern Plains. Perhaps after this evening, this area will be influenced more by an upper ridge to our east. As the western trough continues east over the weekend, rain chances will remain relatively high. A cold front will also begin to move closer to northern Oklahoma.
353 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing large scale flow aloft consisting of a large high pressure dome situated over the eastern half of the CONUS along with a well amplified longwave trough across the western half and an embedded circulation centered over the Great Basic. Models are in agreement large scale pattern will become more progressive in nature beginning tonight when Great Basin upper low gets ejected and moves toward the western Dakotas late tonight. With this, synoptic scale lift increases over the region in conjunction with associated cold front approaching the CWA.
An exiting weak system will keep clouds and a chance of showers over Western Washington today before a ridge passes over the area Saturday.
Surface analysis depicts a weak inverted trof across this region along with pooling of 2"+ PWATs lending to rainfall rates around 1-2" inches/hr.
5h height/vorticity do indicate the periodic presence of shrtwv trofs in the sw flow aloft, however much of it is likely to be convective feed back from model generated QPF? Models do indicate there will be a mid and upper-level moisture surge Sat AM that indicates possible early development of storms in the Trans Pecos that could lead to scattered-numerous SHRA/TSRA SE NM/part of the PB? We are concerned that there could be too many clouds thus limiting SB instability and thus emphasizing the importance of a shrtwv trofs and/or storms to develop and move off the mtns. Models drop a closed upper low INVOF sw AZ Tue PM and eventually kick it out Thur to the nw of our area, still uncertainty with this.
Did allow slight chance pops across portions of the high terrain as well this afternoon, generally at the highest peaks. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 62 87 62 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 61 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 85 58 / 10 10 0 0.
349 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The subtropical ridge continues to hold strong across much of the Mid-South this afternoon, providing warm and dry weather across the region. The ridge is progged to strengthen this weekend, shifting thunderstorm chances farther west by tomorrow.
Still appears there is some threat for isolated convection late afternoon/early evening, but main event should hold off until later in the evening as front gets shoved east by approaching mid-level trof. Severe hail and wind still look possible, especially with activity that forms in vicinity of the cold front. The upper trough will move over the Dakotas bringing much cooler air with highs expected to be closer to average in the 70s.
The upper pattern today continues to feature deep troughing westward over the Rockies while broad ridging prevails across the Southeast CONUS. At the surface, cyclogenesis is underway beneath the Rockies upper low, while broad high pressure remains the dominant feature over the Southern Appalachians and east coast. For the rest of the day, heights will slowly build from the west as the Western Atlantic trough ejects, thus any precipitation should remain very isolated at best, and over the the highest peaks. Into Saturday, deep ridging should prevail keeping the region dry.
The cloud cover and rainfall will help keep temperatures in check overnight and into Saturday with lows around 70 degrees and afternoon highs Saturday in the low 80s. This will occur as a cold front begins to make its way across the plains and towards the region. As the cold front moves into eastern kansas and northern Missouri, increasing lift will act to enhance lift and the potential for heavy rainfall and also some strong to severe storms.
As high pressure builds overhead tonight radiational cooling will be nearly maximized and another autumn-like night is expected. As the light onshore winds continue Saturday and Saturday night a warmer afternoon is expected with a slight uptick in humidity. ~1025 mb high pressure centered near the Carolina coast Sun morning will shift offshore through Sun night. Light return flow around the base of the high will produce an onshore to southerly flow. The ridge aloft will continue to extend up into the Carolinas from the southwest producing plenty of dry air and subsidence aloft.
219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A little ripple in the high pressure over the region allowed for a couple of morning showers across Middle TN. In fact, surface dew points in the low to mid 50s, along with a little southerly breeze, are making for quite a nice day across the mid-state. With an upper ridge centered south of the state this weekend, we might actually have a really great weekend in store. Upper 80s to around 90 west of the Plateau (a little cooler over there) and while dew points probably won't be as low as they are today, they'll be close.
A very dry airmass remains in place with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s in most locations. The exceptions should be where warmer highs were reached this afternoon and near the AL/MS border, where lows could only drop into the lower 60s. Not much change in the forecast over the weekend, as high pressure remains entrenched over Alabama and Georgia as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
151 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Water vapor shows deep upper low over northern UT/southeast ID. Upper low shifts into western ND Saturday morning, then into southern Manitoba by late afternoon.
242 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 (Tonight and Saturday) Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a large upper level trough over the Intermountain West and upper level ridge over the Southern Plains. Expect another mild night tonight temperature wise, as another stratus deck is expected to move in from the southeast, with lows in the low 70s. It should be slightly cooler tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 90s. An upper-level trough will progress through the Upper Midwest, resulting in southwesterly mid-level flow across much of West Texas.
257 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A weak cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will be across the region through the weekend.
1135 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A weak system will bring clouds and a few light showers today then warmer and drier weather returns for Saturday.
Medium Lingering anticyclonic flow in the low levels and aloft breaks down this period as Low pressure approaches from the Plains. But have increased pops as the day wears on Saturday to account for better mid level forcing as well as the lower level moisture advection.
As such, confidence remains on the lower end for timing and placement. A confluent upper trof approaches the region on Sun with the surface cold front reaching northern portions of the CWA mid to late Sun morning. These factors in addition to high freezing level and the high PWs, a threat of flash flooding exists for mainly the northern third or so of the CWA. The cold front is expected to push south through the area Sun night with rain coming to an end.
Saturday through Saturday night we should see dry weather, as high pressure to our east becomes more of an influence. Temps will be a blend of persistence, and the warmer ECMOS.
358 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
247 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Heavy rainfall is forecast over central Illinois this weekend due to a slow moving cold frontal system. Models continue similar trend as past of bringing major upper trof into region on weekend, with ample moist air flowing in ahead of the upper feature.
/GG/ Back door cold front, over western sections, still slowly advancing west with much drier and cooler air moving in from the east. /GG/ Prior discussion below: Today & tonight: For today, any remnants of Imelda have been absorbed into the the synoptic flow around the western periphery of the building subtropical ridge over the southeast. As the ridge builds aloft over Alabama & further west, expect broad scale subsidence & nearly one inch PW air to build in our area.
Upper level high will continue to rule the weather pattern through the taf period.
On Saturday night, a cold front will move southeast through the area.
Ceilings have improved since this morning into the low VFR category across northwest Arkansas. Widespread low clouds and scattered showers will keep the temperatures steady much of the day, generally in the low to mid 70s. The highest flash flood potential will be across portions of far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
Widespread low clouds and scattered showers will keep the temperatures steady much of the day, generally in the low to mid 70s. The highest flash flood potential will be across portions of far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
Current surface map shows low over far western North Dakota with cold front extending southward to the northern Black Hills into eastern Wyoming. cold front slowly move east as upper trof moves across the Rockies. Main impulse embedded in upper trof lifts through northern Wyoming into western North Dakota tonight. Low level moisture pooling ahead of cold front results in MLCAPE of 2000+ J/KG. Upper low cuts off over eastern North Dakota on Saturday, with secondary trof swinging through the forecast area.
351 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Warm and muggy conditions across the area with approaching upper trough to the west. As the trough works through after 06Z, should see thunderstorm chances increase. Best chances for a stronger storm will be west of the James River with marginal Trough moves through the region fairly quickly, which should limit the heavy rainfall potential through the overnight hours.
1111 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend.
/issued 1026 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southeast CONUS this morning, but tropical moisture is streaming poleward on the western flank of the anticyclone. Farther east, the influence of the high pressure dome aloft will keep dewpoints mixed down to near 60F, precluding convective initiation. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than what we saw yesterday on average, but will still be above normal. /issued 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of an upper level ridge today (592dm at 500mb), centered over GA/AL.
Upper level high pressure building in from the E/NE will help dry things out a bit Sat but there could be enough lingering moisture and instability for the development of scattered showers/thunder- storms by the afternoon. Slightly warmer daytime temperatures are also expected. with highs in the lower 90s.
Sfc front/dry line will continue to move only very slowly through the afternoon, but should pick up forward momentum by mid evening as mid level trof starts lifting northeast out of the Rockies, and into the Northern Plains. The main threat from the later activity will probably be strong wind as mid level winds from approaching trof overspread the CWA, and force any cells into line segments. Behind the front, conditions will turn cooler and less humid for Saturday/Saturday night.
Current surface map shows low over far western North Dakota with cold front extending southward to the northern Black Hills into eastern Wyoming. cold front slowly move east as upper trof moves across the Rockies. Main impulse embedded in upper trof lifts through northern Wyoming into western North Dakota tonight. Low level moisture pooling ahead of cold front results in MLCAPE of 2000+ J/KG. Upper low cuts off over eastern North Dakota on Saturday, with secondary trof swinging through the forecast area. Behind the storms, MVFR cigs may develop tomorrow night as a cooler air mass overspreads the region.
A ridge builds over the area Saturday suppressing any more showers by Saturday evening.
1026 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southeast CONUS this morning, but tropical moisture is streaming poleward on the western flank of the anticyclone. Farther east, the influence of the high pressure dome aloft will keep dewpoints mixed down to near 60F, precluding convective initiation. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than what we saw yesterday on average, but will still be above normal. /issued 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of an upper level ridge today (592dm at 500mb), centered over GA/AL.
905 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A weak system will bring clouds and a few light showers today then warmer and drier weather returns for Saturday.
Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front similar to CAM model forecast. Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.
-Mottice Upper trof will be moving east across Montana today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue today across eastern Montana ahead of the trof, but will become more widespread overnight as the mid level trof crosses the cwa. Rain diminishes from west to east on Saturday, and with high pressure building into the region, could see some breezy conditions.
124 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the taf cycle as deep ridging dominates across the region. With high pressure nearly overhead, flow looks to remain light/vrb especially at TYS/TRI, moreso light/sly at CHA. Lastly, did include a MVFR fog tempo at TRI as max temps today look to be cooler than fcst earlier, thus dewpoint depressions should narrow some overnight, not to mention guidance favoring such.
941 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Mostly clear skies this evening as high pressure continues over the area.
932 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
Temperatures have fallen back into the lower 80s after topping out in the mid to upper 80s earlier this afternoon. Overnight lows still look reasonable based on cross over temperatures in the low 60s. More of the same in the short term, with much warmer than normal temperatures and mainly dry weather on tap for eastern Kentucky through the weekend.
920 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Latest local radar continues to show a regeneration of thunderstorms over south central ND, near the proximity of a slow moving cold front which is parallel to the upper flow. Cold front located from just west of Minot south to Glen Ullin. These storms will be more attached with the upper level low and stronger forced ascent that is progged to approach later tonight through Saturday. Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front similar to CAM model forecast. Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.
High pressure will give mostly dry but cloudy conditions through Saturday.
A large and strong ridge of high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard remains in control of our weather. The elevated onshore flow should keep min temps in the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast, south of the Cape.
/issued 242 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a large upper level trough over the Intermountain West and upper level ridge over the Southern Plains. Expect another mild night tonight temperature wise, as another stratus deck is expected to move in from the southeast, with lows in the low 70s. It should be slightly cooler tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 90s. An upper-level trough will progress through the Upper Midwest, resulting in southwesterly mid-level flow across much of West Texas.
A little ripple in the high pressure over the region allowed for a couple of morning showers across Middle TN. In fact, surface dew points in the low to mid 50s, along with a little southerly breeze, are making for quite a nice day across the mid-state. With an upper ridge centered south of the state this weekend, we might actually have a really great weekend in store. Upper 80s to around 90 west of the Plateau (a little cooler over there) and while dew points probably won't be as low as they are today, they'll be close.
522 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
Lows will range from the lower to upper 60s across the region. /JNE/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: The mid levels will pretty much remain unchanged through tomorrow with ridge anchored over MS/AL. Meanwhile at the surface, airmass change continues from east to west as a back door cold front, over the far western portions continues moving west. To the west of the boundary, dewpoints remained in the lower 70s with enough lift to support scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will remain centered to the north northeast Tonight.
If these Saturday evening thunderstorms are able to form along the cold front over our southeastern forecast area prior to the cold front exiting, then they could be strong to severe. Therefore, severe storms will be possible with the primary threat being strong winds and hail as the low level wind shear is a little to light to pose much of a tornadic threat over our forecast area.
638 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing large scale flow aloft consisting of a large high pressure dome situated over the eastern half of the CONUS along with a well amplified longwave trough across the western half and an embedded circulation centered over the Great Basic. Models are in agreement large scale pattern will become more progressive in nature beginning tonight when Great Basin upper low gets ejected and moves toward the western Dakotas late tonight. With this, synoptic scale lift increases over the region in conjunction with associated cold front approaching the CWA.
/issued 349 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ The subtropical ridge continues to hold strong across much of the Mid-South this afternoon, providing warm and dry weather across the region. The ridge is progged to strengthen this weekend, shifting thunderstorm chances farther west by tomorrow.
1047 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Temperatures have fallen back into the mid to upper 60s in the valleys with ridges holding in the mid 70s. Temperatures have fallen back into the lower 80s after topping out in the mid to upper 80s earlier this afternoon. Overnight lows still look reasonable based on cross over temperatures in the low 60s. More of the same in the short term, with much warmer than normal temperatures and mainly dry weather on tap for eastern Kentucky through the weekend.
719 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
712 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region through the weekend.
547 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Cold front located from just west of Minot south to Glen Ullin. These storms will be more attached with the upper level low and stronger forced ascent that is progged to approach later tonight through Saturday. Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front similar to CAM model forecast. Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.
Northerly flow aloft behind the departing upper low will keep temps cool Saturday.
/28/ Tonight and Saturday: The mid levels will pretty much remain unchanged through tomorrow with ridge anchored over MS/AL. Meanwhile at the surface, airmass change continues from east to west as a back door cold front, over the far western portions continues moving west. To the west of the boundary, dewpoints remained in the lower 70s with enough lift to support scattered showers and thunderstorms.