Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO MAKE A QUICK SHIFT EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY. ALONG THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
This is all due to lift associated with an upper level low dropping south into northern Mexico. This low will not affect weather farther east because it will get caught under a west coast ridge and retrograde back west away from the area.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 150 W MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EXPECT SIMILAR LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY SHOULD ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK.
BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 19 39 26 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 15 33 24 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 38 16 33 23 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 14 28 19 / 20 0 0 0.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TENNESSEE WILL PUSH INTO NW GA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING TODAY WITH LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS WITH A STRONGLY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND THE RESULTING LOW RETROGRADING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF TODAY IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.
WE PRETTY MUCH KEEP OUR WINDS BELOW LAKE CRITERIA ALL AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS LIKELY AROUND 20KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR A CHILLY DAY BELOW AVERAGE. BUT STILL WARMER AS ADVERTISED FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015/ UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SONORA AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the rest of the week. However, some moisture will stream through the ridge in the northwest producing some light precipitation along the Canadian border, though not expecting any real impacts.
SOME 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN HERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. WITH A WEAK RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EVOLVING IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WAS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF IS LIFE CYCLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WHILE A SPRAWLING ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE COVERED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT HAD MOVED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG UPPER RIDGING NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN/CALIFORNIA WAS PUSHING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO THE SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOING INTO MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE DEEP SOUTH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED.
611 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
315 AM MST THU FEB 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SPEAD ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE DAY. LEE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD THE KS BORDER. WITH USUAL LEE SLOPES STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
/ISSUED 440 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A weak upper low has dropped south from roughly the Arizona/New Mexico border to along the Sonora/Chihuahua border in adjacent northern Mexico. This low will track south-southwest across northern Mexico today, then turn more to the west toward the Gulf of California by late tonight. This to occur as an upper ridge over the western U. Temperatures today will be cooler area wide compared to yesterday, most notably across our southern counties. Going with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.
A dry cold front is moving through the area this morning. With mostly sunny skies expect temperatures to reach the 60s before a much stronger cold front arrives tonight.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION IS NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SSE OVER SW GA THIS MORNING. WARMER AND BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE WARMER AIR HANGING AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SNOW COVER.
Incoming cold front has made for a brisk and cold night across eastern Kansas tonight, along with a band of clouds and some light flurries. Friday still looking to the warmest day for this forecast as moderate mixing into the warmer air aloft occurs. Despite light winds and clearing skies, have raised Friday night temps a bit with higher confidence in the strong cold front delayed until the late night at the earliest.
WITH ACCUMULATION CONCERNS CONTINUING FOR THE RIDGES WHERE DIRECT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS OUTSIDE THE RIDGES PERIODICALLY UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS DOMINATE.
FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST MVFR COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE AND UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING AT CROSSVILLE AS UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
LEFT MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHEAST AS CLOUD DECK AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THEN EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST MVFR COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE AND UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING AT CROSSVILLE AS UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
310 AM PST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY 14Z. COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF A VCT TO BEA TO COT LINE AT 11Z. LIFR CONDS WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL BE BRIEF AS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND BETWEEN 13-14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
545 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE RISING INTO A VFR CATEGORY AT CHA AND TYS.
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 DEGREES OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TENNESSEE WILL PUSH INTO NW GA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING TODAY WITH LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENSIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE FROM THE NW FRI AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
Height falls associated with an upper trough crossing the Rockies have also helped halt the dryline this afternoon and will likely cause it to move back west soon. Storms will eventually move east of the area by Thursday morning as the mentioned upper trough moves across the Plains. A Pacific front will pass through Thursday morning providing slightly cooler temperatures than today.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. ELEVATED MOIST LAYER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH APPROACH OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO HAS LED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND THEN RELAX SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FALLING MORE IN LINE WITH PERSISTENCE AND MAV GUIDANCE VERSES FORECAST AND THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS.
250 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015 DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ON THURSDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE IT WILL BE A DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
GRADUAL INCREASING MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERLY TO MATCH THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY BY ADVECTING IN SOME WARMER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALSO SPED UP A BIT.
There should be at least a short break in storm coverage tomorrow afternoon ahead of the more significant chance for severe weather along and ahead of the cold front tomorrow night. Forcing will come from the upper level trough moving in and an upper level jet.
To the west, the main upper trough was still over the central Rockies. On the synoptic scale, the upper trough over the central Rockies moves east tonight into the plains and then into the upper Midwest by Thursday afternoon. The warm front over southeast Kansas should move north in response to the deepening low moving northeast. In the meantime, thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop near the boundary over southern Kansas and increase in coverage and severe weather potential as the low-level wind fields increase in response to the deepening synoptic scale low. The low-level shear increases during the overnight hours as the low moves into northeast Kansas. The cold front moves through in the morning.
THE THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LATE EVENING DEVELOPMENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THAT COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR TO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE WORK WEEK SHOULD END ON A COOLER AND DRIER NOTE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. BRINGING THE WARMER WEATHER AND HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS CERTAINLY THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE.
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOSE AREAS.
648 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEETS EAST AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RES MODELS.
MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY 18Z THU. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THU WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
344 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES FROM WY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRYLINE WILL ATTEMPT TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KNOCKING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS OVER VALUES SEEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE RANGE OF THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AND THEN A WINTRY MIX AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND OVER IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND IS LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 ROUNDS OF CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING. WV ZIPS THRU BY 12Z AND BRINGS AN END TO PCPN BY MRNG WITH BRIEF UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTING OVR CWA TOMORROW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWESTARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AS 25H JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG ONGOING AT THE LOWER ACADIANA SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG AS THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO FORM WILL LIKELY SAY WELL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/CMC INDICATE A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
601 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015 A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
330 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015 A DENVER CYCLONE. THE UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST IS RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF WYOMING RIGHT NOW. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO BE JUST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CWA. IT DEPENDS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS. NORTHWESTERLIES TO SOUTHWESTERLIES DOMINATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
APPEARS TO BE SOME DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER COLORADO WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW STATUS AND FOG TO REFORM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH DEEP RIDGING STILL IN PLACE COMBINED WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURAFCE THROUGH TONIGHT BELIEVE WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL/ADVECTION FOG FOG MOST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MORE DENSE FOG FORMING LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS ON THU.
SHOULD BE MORE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPS THERE.
ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD KEEP MOST SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY N OF MID STATE THRU 09/02Z. WITH WEAKENING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BEGINNING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. IT WAS MUGGY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH 3 AM TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THIS DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
AROUND 04Z-08Z RAP 700MB TEMP MAP SHOWS THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING THRU NE SECTIONS FROM NW-SE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 83 64 72 / 10 20 90 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 82 64 70 / 10 20 70 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 82 63 70 / 10 20 80 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 81 60 70 / 30 30 70 90.
156 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY YUMA COUNTY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS THE BEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM WEST TO EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S TO MID 50S.
BEFORE MOVING N AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CAN BE OVERCOME. OVERNIGHT AS THE DRYLINE AND A COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ADVANCE E.
100 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 07Z. THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WHERE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT. AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY TEMPERATURE WISE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS BACK TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
Much sharper feature to the north where the high clouds have thinned enough to allow much better mixing and a more defined dryline.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE LOW WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING TRACKS EAST AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THOUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LEADING TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. A SMALL AREA OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING IS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA WHERE TUSCALOOSA IS STILL IN THE LOW 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING. WV ZIPS THRU BY 12Z AND BRINGS AN END TO PCPN BY MRNG WITH BRIEF UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTING OVR CWA TOMORROW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SSWRD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY DUE TO A SOUTH WIND AHEAD THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST LARGE SCALE TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
The boundary has recently been pushed a bit further south across central Illinois by a passing wave of low pressure, with area obs showing it from near Rantoul to just south of Jacksonville. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across much of central and southeast Illinois Thursday morning: however, a brief break in the precip chances may occur from late morning into the early afternoon before deepening low pressure tracking from northern Missouri to southern Wisconsin pulls a cold front into the region during the afternoon/evening.
500 MB CHART FROM 12Z SHOWED MAIN TROUGH STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST.
POST FRONTAL CUMULUS OVER THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS TODAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT THIS WEEK AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDAY/S THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED LOW HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST IS PROGGED BY THE 12Z WRF TO BUILD INLAND INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOWS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S EXPECTED AT THE COOLEST LOCATIONS.
WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S BY 9 AM.
AN UPPER LOW IS NOW DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL BRING IN TWO DAYS OF MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
225 PM MST WED APR 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY.
325 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015 THE H5 TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IS KEEPING WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 30 AND 40 MPH GOING THROUGHOUT EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND A HARD FREEZE FOR THE LOW VALLEYS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AFTER THE COOLER WEATHER OF TODAY AND THU.