Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region this afternoon.
713 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above average temperatures into the weekend. Evening Update: Overnight temperatures have been reduced by a few degrees, especially in the ridges. Previous Discussion: High pressure will continue to provide clear and quiet weather tonight.
High pressure will continue to build to the north Tonight. Lows along the coast will be in the middle 70s though, due to coastal water temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape with overnight lows in the lower 70s. /28/ Prior discussion below: This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Feeling the effects of an upper-level ridge extending from the central Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, most of our forecast area today has been on the warm and dry side. As Imelda continues to weaken tomorrow and lift northward across East Texas, a weak cold front nudged south and westward across the eastern CONUS will seep into our forecast area from the northeast.
542 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Water vapor shows our area between departing trof over the Upper Midwest and trof along the west coast. At the surface, low center is over southern Manitoba with ridge building into western SD. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected through much of Thursday with upper trof building into the Rockies by late in the day. Strengthening low level jet and theta-e advection combined with short wave ejecting from the trof over the Rockies should result in developing thunderstorms Thursday night.
Drier and warmer weather is expected from Thursday into the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will wind down through the evening hours tonight as an upper trough over the area shifts E. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the end of the week. This will usher in a drying trend with warmer interior temperatures. Guidance is coming into better agreement as to the timing and strength of another trough digging over the Pacific NW late in the weekend.
As of 19Z Wednesday afternoon, the longwave midlevel pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with a very-amplified ridge across the eastern US and troughing across the west. At the surface an inverted trough extended from the TX Panhandle northeastward through north- central KS and into southwest MN. Furthermore, if any OFB does push into the area, temperatures could be cooler than currently expected, although another warm/humid day is most likely with highs near 90.
Upper level low pressure system over southern MAN will continue to move northeast tonight. Upper level ridge will move over the area. Upper level trough off the CA/OR coast will move into the Intermountain West by 12Z Fri.
741 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Quiet conditions across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control of the weather across the Southeastern United States. A "back door" cold front will continue to push west from the Carolinas into Georgia overnight.
710 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A less humid airmass will overspread the area through the weekend as Canadian high pressure ridges into the region. Satellite showing clouds eroding across the area as high pressure builds in from the north. Mixing should help hold up temperatures but it will be cooler than what we have experienced of late.
Behind the front we will see much lower humidity with temperatures a few degrees cooler in the morning and afternoon hours. At the surface a back door front moves into south FL tonight and stalls as high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. For Fri-Wed: Mid level ridging builds in across the eastern U. during the weekend then slides west and south early in the week as a low tracking across eastern Canada swings a trough over the eastern seaboard by midweek. The high pressure weakens somewhat Sun-Mon as Tropical Storm Jerry tracks across the Atlantic. High pressure builds back into the area from Canada Tue-Wed. A front with some showers and thunderstorms exits the waters to the south this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the north and dominates through the weekend.
153 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A less humid airmass will overspread the area through the weekend as Canadian high pressure ridges into the region. Any cloud coverage will be limited to a few cirrus that develop off of the higher terrain and stream over the FA in the northwest upper level flow.
The overall pattern has a strong upper-level ridge over the Eastern Seaboard with a deep upper-level trough over the High Plains.
Quiet conditions across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control of the weather across the Southeastern United States. A "back door" cold front will continue to push west from the Carolinas into Georgia overnight.
Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will also continue to slowly spread into the region over the next couple of days as upper trough in the western U. Models show another trough moving into the western U. behind this system and eventually developing into a closed low that slowly drifts east towards the area.
This Evening-Thu Night: Quiet weather continues for all areas as a strong upper-deck ridge remains anchored from the Rio Grande all the way to Southern Hudson Bay. Such an evolving mid-upper pattern would cause a weak cold front to stall across KS Sat & Sat night with the front situated in an E/W manner through Central KS. By evening, a cold front will begins to encroach on the region.
The upper level ridge will remain the dominant force across the area through the start of the weekend.
419 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region late this week and during the weekend.
323 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Updated at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Upper ridge looks to remain firmly in place through the short term, leading to a continuation of warm temps and dry weather.
1033 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Water vapor shows our area between departing trof over the Upper Midwest and trof along the west coast. At the surface, low center is over southern Manitoba with ridge building into western SD. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected through much of Thursday with upper trof building into the Rockies by late in the day. Strengthening low level jet and theta-e advection combined with short wave ejecting from the trof over the Rockies should result in developing thunderstorms Thursday night.
Mostly clear skies, light wind and dry air mass associated with high pressure centered over New Eng will allow temperatures to fall to their lowest levels since late last spring across central Pa this morning. Mixing down model 900mb temps yield expected max temperatures today from the upper 60s over the high terrain, to the low and mid 70s in the valleys. A building upper level ridge with above normal heights will bring a resurgence of summertime heat across the area through the upcoming weekend.
346 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY and PA through the weekend.
319 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 As an amplified western US trough continues to deepen and drift towards the Northern Plains, Thursday will see southerly return flow with mainly sunny skies. Highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s. The quiet short term will end with the approaching longwave trough.
At the surface, a trough of low pressure will be in place across eastern Colorado throughout the day. Winds will continue to be from a southerly direction through tomorrow with highs in the low 90s this afternoon and lows in the 60s tonight.
Low to mid 60s dewpoints over the Lower OH Valley will begin creeping into the area tonight into the weekend as the prevailing pattern remains generally unchanged and light moisture advection continues.
255 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through the weekend.
1207 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above average temperatures into the weekend. Clear skies should continue overnight with high pressure and dry air in place.
North of the cold front. Several ingredients are in place with the high precipitable water values of 1. The negatives are that the upper level divergence is more subtle locally and better to the east and the low level jet is mostly 25 to 30kts and thus more subtle. The low level jet strengthens across central Nebraska.
350 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 (Today and Tonight) West Central Texas will remain situated between an upper level trough over the western CONUS and an upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Weak upper level ridging will remain in place across our area today, with most of the moisture associated with Imelda remaining off to the east.
/issued 1001 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/ Upper level high pressure will continue to prevail across the region overnight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Warm and dry conditions will through most of tomorrow for the Mid-South due to upper ridging.
Behind this feature, high pressure continues to wedge in through the Carolinas and the local area. Expect cloud cover to remain over the area for most of today and gone on the higher side of guidance for cloud cover. Still think there could be enough sun late though to allow for temps to just creep into the lower 80s for North GA.
1001 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Upper level high pressure will continue to prevail across the region overnight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Warm and dry conditions will through most of tomorrow for the Mid-South due to upper ridging.
249 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY and PA through the weekend.
323 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
232 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY and PA through the weekend. High pressure will build southwest over the area while upper level heights rise. Dry air with the high will bring mainly clear skies. Little change to the weather pattern with high pressure at all levels. The upper level ridge remains over the Great Lakes.
324 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico will remain under southwest flow aloft for most of the next 7 days with an upper trough to the west and upper ridging to the east. We saw some isolated convection Wednesday and think thunderstorms will increase in coverage today, particularly across the higher terrain and the adjacent plains, as we destabilize through daytime heating.
633 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through the weekend.
High temperatures today will remain well above normal with highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s.
The weakness in the Subtropical Ridge caused by Imelda should allow showers and thunderstorms to linger further into this evening and overnight before dissipation with loss of heating. As Imelda drifts further to the north on Friday, the Subtropical Ridge gradually regains influence with increasing subsidence. Temperatures remain well above normal, though "cooler" than last few days in the rainy areas.
949 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Clouds are slowly starting to diminish late this morning as drier air continues to push in at the lower levels. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 58 87 59 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 59 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 51 84 54 / 10 0 0 0.
Most of the high resolution guidance has this fog slowly moving south through the morning, potentially affecting Bismarck, Minot, and Jamestown. As an amplified western US trough continues to deepen and drift towards the Northern Plains, Thursday will see southerly return flow with mainly sunny skies. Highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s. The quiet short term will end with the approaching longwave trough.
205 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A trough of low pressure will impact the the region through and Thursday with breezy to gusty winds. Light precipitation will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra especially near Yosemite tonight through Thursday. A trough of low pressure continues to move through the region this morning with breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County mountains and desert. The trough will exit the region tonight with a weak ridge of high pressure Friday through the weekend.
943 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A backdoor frontal boundary that has brought breezy and cooler conditions back to Alabama has pushed into extreme eastern Mississippi this morning. With cold air advection continuing through the day, highs will be cooler in the mid to upper 80s. Fairly quiet/tranquil wx conditions will then prevail tonight into the first half of the weekend period, as high pressure remains entrenched from the mid Atlantic states into much of the region. An upper ridge axis will also remain in place over much of the SE states thru the remainder of the work week, thereby maintaining the dry wx pattern. A troughing west/ridging east pattern will be in place across the lower-48 for the start of the period. The rebuilt upper ridge will bring more unseasonably warm and dry conditions to end the last weekend of summer.
616 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Upper flow becomes more amplified as a synoptic scale trough digs over the Great Basin. As more energy is ejected from the base of the the trough to the west, we will have another shot at some storms, with the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms as well, especially Friday afternoon into the night, and with greater chances northwest and north of the tri-cities.
723 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Deep midlevel ridge axis will remain parked over Southeast Michigan through 12Z Friday. Low to mid 60s dewpoints over the Lower OH Valley will begin creeping into the area tonight into the weekend as the prevailing pattern remains generally unchanged and light moisture advection continues.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Temperatures running about five degrees above average will be the main weather story throughout the short term as the 500 mb ridging will build across south Texas as the remnants of TS Imelda continue to weaken across portions of east Texas and the Texarkana region. The 00Z ECMWF MOS guidance continues to trend slightly warmer compared to the GFS/NAM output. As a result of the overall pattern and temperature verification from yesterday, I will go ahead and trend the temperatures on the warmer side of the guidance, closest to the ECMWF guidance.
729 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region late this week and during the weekend.
There seems to be enough instability present, but other large scale support/parameters such as the timing of the low level jet, don't really line up for optimal development of severe thunderstorms.
Updated at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Upper ridge looks to remain firmly in place through the short term, leading to a continuation of warm temps and dry weather. Updated at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Strong upper ridging over the eastern CONUS will maintain August heat through the weekend, and consequently the Equinox.
545 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
High pressure stretching into the Gulf of Mexico will bring increasing winds. This high pressure will dominate for the next few days with robust winds.
/issued 438 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Temperatures running about five degrees above average will be the main weather story throughout the short term as the 500 mb ridging will build across south Texas as the remnants of TS Imelda continue to weaken across portions of east Texas and the Texarkana region. The 00Z ECMWF MOS guidance continues to trend slightly warmer compared to the GFS/NAM output. As a result of the overall pattern and temperature verification from yesterday, I will go ahead and trend the temperatures on the warmer side of the guidance, closest to the ECMWF guidance.
A low level jet will develop across the high plains tonight, which will push the aforementioned front northward through southern and central MN, and west central WI by Friday morning. Forcing is rather limited given the fact that the main trough is well to the west of our area during that time, and with the CAP in place, could foresee a few showers and weak storms developing on an isolated basis across the local area during the day Friday.
/issued 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/ West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico will remain under southwest flow aloft for most of the next 7 days with an upper trough to the west and upper ridging to the east.
547 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The next H5 trough still on track to trek across the Intermountain West during the next 24 hours, with gradually increasing chances for precipitation, especially for the northern half of the state. This trough will pull a cold front southward, hanging up roughly along the Continental Divide tonight.
630 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Remnants of a tropical cyclone will slowly move nwd throughout the 12Z TAF pd, bringing pds of shra/tsra, MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys, and a few wind gusts. Thus have continued the higher-end PoPs through tonight, and the ongoing FF Watch will remain as is. Models drop convection off significantly after sunset Friday night, as the remnant moisture moves n of the region and the ridge reinforces itself across the TX Coastline.
Upper ridging remains in place across the southern US, extending to the northeast. At the surface, other than Imelda, high pressure across the eastern US coast will be a dominant factor in the short term. With widespread cloud cover and some precip expected for much of the day, temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday.
and another trough off the east coast. On Friday, remnants of Imelda will begin to push into southern MO, while the main upper trough to the west will slide east into the Rockies, with a large Pacific fetch of moisture from Baja into the plains meeting up with the Gulf moisture flowing north into the area.
636 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY and PA through the weekend. High pressure will bring mild temperatures and clear skies to the region through Friday. Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s Thursday, fall into the middle-40s Thursday night, and rebound into the middle-70s Friday. High pressure will remain in control through the period, with very little overall changes made from the previous forecast.
450 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Upper flow becomes more amplified as a synoptic scale trough digs over the Great Basin. As more energy is ejected from the base of the the trough to the west, we will have another shot at some storms, with the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms as well, especially Friday afternoon into the night, and with greater chances northwest and north of the tri-cities.
Low pressure will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Great Basin today.
Increasing clouds, especially across southeast Oklahoma should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Behind this feature, high pressure continues to wedge in through the Carolinas and the local area. Expect cloud cover to remain over the area for most of today and gone on the higher side of guidance for cloud cover. Still think there could be enough sun late though to allow for temps to just creep into the lower 80s for North GA. High pressure is expected to predominate through the weekend.
626 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through the weekend.
459 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Current surface map show high pressure across the Dakotas, with lee trof over Montana/Wyoming. West CONUS trof moves over the Rockies on Friday and into the western Dakota Friday night.
738 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
Thus have continued the higher-end PoPs through tonight, and the ongoing FF Watch will remain as is. Models drop convection off significantly after sunset Friday night, as the remnant moisture moves n of the region and the ridge reinforces itself across the TX Coastline.
317 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Current surface map show high pressure across the Dakotas, with lee trof over Montana/Wyoming. West CONUS trof moves over the Rockies on Friday and into the western Dakota Friday night.
433 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The next H5 trough still on track to trek across the Intermountain West during the next 24 hours, with gradually increasing chances for precipitation, especially for the northern half of the state. This trough will pull a cold front southward, hanging up roughly along the Continental Divide tonight.
908 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region late this week and during the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to run warm, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Plains, and near or slightly above 100 degrees for areas generally west of Highway 281. Friday, temperatures should be a degree or two cooler mainly due to the increased moisture and expected cloud cover.
Weak wave pushes ashore along the Georgia coast on the bottom side of the upper ridge, but right now it appears that all we will see out of this is some increase in cloud cover across the far south.
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 This Thursday afternoon North Dakota finds itself between a deep h500 trough across the Great Basin, and a broad ridge across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Global Models track the upper low northeast into the Northern Plains over the next 48 hours, across North Dakota and into Canada.
304 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will remain in place over the southeast aloft tonight. A secondary push of a drier and slightly cooler air will continue to push from Georgia into northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This should lower relative humidity values near 30 percent in the afternoon, as dewpoints drop into the lower to mid 50s (especially east of I-65). Highs should be even more pleasant only reaching the lower to mid 80s, despite a bit more sunshine. High pressure is forecast by models to weaken Friday night into the weekend, as a fairly amplified longwave trough axis pushes east towards the southeast.
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region late this week and during the weekend.
117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY and PA through the weekend. High pressure will bring mild temperatures and clear skies to the region through Friday. Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s Thursday, fall into the middle-40s Thursday night, and rebound into the middle-70s Friday. High pressure will remain in control through the period, with very little overall changes made from the previous forecast.
Elevated mixed layer looks to keep the atmosphere largely capped throughout the day on Friday, but as leading short wave associated with elongated upper level trough lifts northeast have increasing chances of precipitation.
After that, widespread clouds and rain will result in cooler temperatures for the weekend. Later on Friday, the upper ridge will begin shifting east of the area. Main focus during this period remains with the heavy rain potential this weekend, as the upper low currently over Nevada lifts northeast.
A broad trough continues to linger over the northern Rockies today and tomorrow causing cool, cloudy, and showery weather.
119 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor shows large western CONUS trof with southwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains. At the surface, high over the Upper Midwest and trof over eastern MT/WY producing gusty southerly winds across the region. Thunderstorm chances will continue areawide on Friday within disturbed southwest flow to the east of upper trof crossing the Rockies. Best axis of CAPE/shear will be east of the Black Hills along/near the cold front where some severe storms are likely.
243 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 High pressure will maintain generally dry weather through the weekend.