Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS NEAR 29 NORTH 77 WEST. WITH WATER VAPOR ILLUSTRATING THE CUSP OF THE DRIEST AIR REMAINS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR 37 NORTH 62 WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS BUT THIS HAS BEEN NEAR SHOWERS WHICH ARE DWINDLING GIVEN EXPECTED MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONAL SCALE RIDGING.
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE POISED TO PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PUSHING BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
A QUITE NIGHT AND EARLY MEMORIAL DAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS WA. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OUTER BANKS EASTWARD TO 35 NORTH 60 WEST. THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING. NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRESH EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT.
859 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015 Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week, providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and smaller chances in the morning and night. Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over southern BC slowly moving south. JW 00Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into northern WA on Monday. This will result in showers and scattered thunderstorms with the best coverage in the northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the area. The highest coverage of this activity will be during peak heating (afternoon or evening) but showers and possibe nocturnal thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North Idaho.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF LEE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A MESO LOW ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KS BUT WITH THE HIGHER PW'S AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WE GOT LAST NIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE HIGHER END SEVERE BUT WITH THAT MUCH INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ADVECTING IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY INTERRUPT THIS PROCESS AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS.
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT. DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE.
1127 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ARE COOLING AND WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND 20S THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THE PRECIP TYPE TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.
255 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A couple of upper level troughs will pass through the forecast area through this weekend. Above normal temperatures with dry conditions and downslope flow are expected today as a surface lee low/trough forms in eastern New Mexico ahead of the first aforementioned trough. Very windy conditions are expected to develop in the Guadalupe Mountains by this afternoon through this evening as 700 millibar west winds increase to 35 to 50 mph ahead of the upper trough.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS 4000-4500 FEET CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND 2000-3000 FEET ALONG EAST SLOPES OF WASHINGTON CASCADES.
At 2 PM, A cold front extended from near Salina to just west of Marysville. The cold air will eventually advect into the area overnight into Friday with more seasonable temperatures by Friday as highs will range from the low 30s in far northeast KS to the upper 30s from Minneapolis to Emporia.
AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER OUR AREA HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BRINING IN INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINATION WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, SO IN OUR AREA THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS NEARING AN INCH BY THE END OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND, IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
First wave moving through the upper trof and over our CWA this evening. The high resolution Comp Refl progs generally forecast decreasing precip from W to E in our CWA from 09z-12z Fri.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY LIFT EAST- NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
EXPECT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
An upper level trough will continue to move across the region today. Otherwise, highs will be much cooler today and in the 40s.
BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SHSN GOING OVER THE LAKE COUNTY MTNS. BY FRI EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER ERN CO. ROSE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH NM FRI EVENING WHILE WEAK TRAILING ENERGY MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH READINGS -26C TO -17C AND A MIX OF CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES SKIRT THE LOW END OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
216 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA STATE LINE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
1211 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A very warm air mass is over the region as highs in the low to middle 60s are currently being observed across the area. An upper level short wave trough and cold front are currently located across the central Plains. A cooler air mass will start to spread into the area on Friday with highs in the 40s with northwesterly winds.
BUT TAPERS OFF AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM. THIS FAST MOVING OPEN WAVE IS NOT OVERLY STRONG AS IT HAD TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS AS A RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WAS KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
425 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SINCE THE TWO SYSTEMS DON'T APPEAR TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM'S COLD FRONT CROSSES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
1033 PM MST THU JAN 14 2016 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHWEST NE INTO SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS MOST -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE OVER THE PINE RIDGE.
FORECAST FOCUS ON COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO EASTERN IA. BACK TO REALITY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN SOME SPOTS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SOME REMNANT FLURRIES MAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER GENERALLY FAIR. MODELS SHOW AN UNDERLYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE SW U. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE FROM TIME TO TIME. UNDER THE RIDGE.
1234 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK INTO AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY.
BY MON AFTERNOON THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BEYOND THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WED MORNING AND SWINGING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS ISN'T NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS TROUGH. LAWSON A LINE OF -SHRA ~15NM WIDE IS OCRG JUST AHEAD OF A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT FROM WRN MO.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR EDWARDS COUNTY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THE FRONT MOVES IN A BIT EARLIER.
1217 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 AVIATION ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.
1141 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ENTERS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 06Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
A much cooler airmass will spread in behind the front, keeping temperatures in the 30s and 40s today.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT IS COULD BE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW.
330 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 MUCH COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A GOOD PORTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME BY SUNRISE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY HIT THE LOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM AND THEN RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW AS IT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND DRIVE OUT THE LOW CLOUDINESS AFTER 06Z TO 10Z. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR EDWARDS COUNTY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THE FRONT MOVES IN A BIT EARLIER.
1051 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 740 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH A LOW POSITIONED ACROSS IOWA. TEMPS WERE RATHER MILD FOR A MID JANUARY EVENING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 IN THE SHOALS. KBMX 00Z RADIOSONDE SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWEST 5-6 KM TONIGHT.
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW. WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO BE COOLER TODAY /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ THAN YESTERDAY. UA TROUGHINESS WILL. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO BELOW 0 C AND SFC TEMPS FALLING TO/BELOW FREEZING. OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX /SE ZONES LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING/.
Low temperatures this morning drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s, and this combined with the wind places wind chills generally in the lower 20s. Cold air advection behind the departing system will keep highs today in the lower to upper 30s with the coldest temperatures in far northeast KS.
THE CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CWFA TODAY. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ACROSS S GA/N FL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WITH SOME ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DROPPING OFF QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING BUT THE SOUTHERN SPOTS HAVE STAYED IN THE MID 40S. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN LOW PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
322 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ABOUT TO MOVE FROM OUR COASTAL WATERS INTO WFO MOB AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SHORT WAVE TOPPING RIDGE WILL CROSS THE NWRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND DROP INTO INTO MANITOBA LONG WAVE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THE HIGHRES SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AND IT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTO- GENETIC FORCING DRIVING THE SNOW. SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE REVEALED SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM GLASGOW TO GLENDIVE. THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY DRYING ALOFT SUCH THAT THE LOW- LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS NO LONGER COLDER THAN -12 C. BUT GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THERMAL PROFILES THAT ARE NEAR THE FRINGES OF HIGHER-END PROBABILITIES OF ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION WE CHOSE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN ND THROUGH THE EVENING TOO.
244 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 Cold front now entering wrn MO will approach the MS River by around noon. Another area of showers associated with the cold front itself will also bring additional rain to most locations as it moves east today. Colder conditions will arrive tonight into the weekend as Canadian high pressure slowly presses south toward the northern U.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING GIVING SURFACE WINDS MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FETCH BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY REMAIN UP NEAR 10 KTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND EXIT THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXISTS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF. THE MID LEVELS DO NOT QUITE SATURATE SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL RH INCREASE AND WEAK FORCING. THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY TRACE PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH.
Winds will shift from southwest to west/northwest this evening as a Pacific cold front moves through the area. This will also dry the low levels out, likely preventing low clouds from developing again tomorrow morning.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER UTAH AT THIS TIME WHILE UPSTREAM. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE THE NEXT STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH SOME MID 20S IN THE EASTERN FA. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH EXCEPTION OF UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST FA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
An upper level short wave trough over the Inter-mountain west will dive southeast into the Southern Plains this weekend.
WHICH WILL STILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
A cold front entering into Northeast Oklahoma will continue to push through the CWA overnight tonight and exit Friday morning. Cold front has pushed into Osage county and will continue eastward overnight and likely through northwest Arkansas around sunrise.
The precipitation should shut down by early afternoon across the CWA as the short wave and associated cold front move east.
AND FORECAST WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA.
1155 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 847 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST NOW PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL CWA. HOWEVER SOME MIXING WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY IS PROVIDING OCCASIONAL WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10KT. THEREFORE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN LOWERING MINS A DEG OR TWO IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S.
300 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016 High pressure will move east of the PAH forecast area late today.
AND WILL USE CONSSHORT HOURLIES TO CONSTRUCT MIN T GRID WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE FAR WEST TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST. CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAT REMAIN MUCH COOLER TOMORROW AS THE DAY STARTS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
945 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER. UNDER THE RIDGE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE DRIER AIR. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
5H heights will lower behind the Fri wave as a broad trof begins to develop over the NErn Pac. Cooler air from the Gulf of Alaska will spread into Norcal Fri nite/Sat and lower snow levels to 4-5 kft. the broad trof will sharpen and deepen along the coast on Sun.
323 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. COLD NW FLOW WILL UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES AND INTO THE RIDGES AND SPPRT SNOW SHOWERS.
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE KEYS. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY MORNING.
Meridional flow was in place today with a broad mid- level trough to the east and a broad mid-level ridge to the west. These winds will shift to the southwest Friday morning ahead of the advancing trough. These cooler temperatures will be focused across north central Kansas where visible satellite imagery still shows a snow pack in place Friday night through Saturday night, an upper level trough will move onshore across the pacific northwest while a down stream upper ridge moves east across the plains.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH UTAH SATURDAY.
/issued 208 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016/ There is an upper level trough over the eastern half of the conus with upper ridging taking place over the CWA. Surface winds are expected to increase out of the west southwest on Saturday resulting in temperatures warming up into the 70s across the area except the higher terrain.
WEST WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A SLEET/FREEZING-RAIN/SNOW MIX. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HAVE ADDED 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE STALLED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE 12-20 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR A POTENTIAL BAND OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BASED UPON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD MIXING AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPAGATES EAST AS A WARM FRONT.
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE EVENING AND SPREAD A COOLER AIRMASS EAST ACROSS THE ZONES. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND TOWARDS COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FLAT, LOW PRESSURE TROF.