Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
652 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY.
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS. HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S. A COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE.
406 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE IN THE WEST.
112 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT.
320 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH OF I-80 AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE SOUTH FRIDAY. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND EXITS THE RIDGES BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S NORTH AND RIDGES WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE IMPACTS OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST. QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.
459 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARED TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LAST NIGHT HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE PROGGED PWS NOW UP TO 2" AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES VERY FAVORABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO SETX. EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND COLD FRONT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
325 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL SHARPEN UP HEADING INTO MEMORIAL DAY BUT ALSO SHIFT ITS AXIS MORE TOWARD THE EAST.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/ The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has resulted in increased instability across these areas and we already have some elevated convection developing just to the north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend area.
AS A WARMER AIR MASS PUSHES IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF/COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROF. OR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
437 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 A COLD FRONT. DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN THE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES TO MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TODAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EXISTS WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE COVERING WRN CANADA BUT WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING IT OVER THE SWRN CONUS. A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM.
ANY STORMS WHICH FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET, IMPACTING SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING MT ROSE, TIOGA, AND SONORA. A BROADSCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECE OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN NEVADA, FOLLOWING THE CORE OF THE LOW.
228 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND MOST OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH. EARLY THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KMLU/MONROE LOUISIANA TO KJSO/JACKSONVILLE TEXAS. /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN THE FRONT DOOR IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW THIS MORNING. BUT THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH WILL LUMBER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE ARE STILL SET UP FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE TOO AS THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT.
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BUT WITH STRONGER JET ACTIVITY CARVING OUT A TROUGH FARTHER UPSTREAM. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF VALUES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.
WHERE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN VIRGA. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2 WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT/A.
FXUS66 KLOX DDHHMM AFDLOX 235 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015 COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL AND OCCASIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE AREA. UPPER LOW CENTERS WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND OFFER EPISODES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND DURING THE WEEKEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING. WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
309 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015 Clouds are clearing out from north to south this morning with high pressure building in from the northwest.
648 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE AND DIMINISH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SECONDARY MSTR STARVED DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF SW TROUGH THROUGH WRN QB MAY GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR TWO AFT MIDNIGHT FAR NE AND RETAINED MENTION. PICTURESQUE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE.
DISTURBANCE RIDING ON TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES TO IOWA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UP NORTH WILL SWING SOUTH.
351 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING AND ALONG AN INVERTED TROF NORTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
400 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 317 AM CDT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING TODAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPS. SO EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPS TO SPREAD RIGHT UP TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A MODEST BOOST FROM THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BEHIND.
427 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
Drizzle may continue into the early evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and dries conditions out. High pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low will be located across southern California. This upper level low and associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on Friday. Despite cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Delta breeze has been fairly strong throughout the night and morning hours with sustained winds at Travis AFB in the teens and gusts in the lower 20s. The main upper low center is forecast to shift to the southeast today towards the Socal coast. Could see a few showers over the valley locations as well as some Sierra storms could get pulled into the valley in upper southeast flow around the low. Variable cloud cover and cool airmass in the low will bring in high temperatures today a little below normal. The upper low center is forecast to swing through southern California on Friday with a similar stability pattern expected to today.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WHERE PWS WILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2 WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT/A.
AT H850 THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z FRIDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE WEST WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STABLE.
ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA.
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SWD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND CONFLUENT FLOW. IT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL U.
Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the high slides through this afternoon and evening. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning.
329 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY WITH COOL CONDITIONS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE INTO NE PA. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN ON FRIDAY BRINGING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES.
227 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
341 AM MST THU MAY 21 2015 AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA.
120 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW IN MOST AREAS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AFTER QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
637 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
134 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY.
SFC HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3 PM. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW.
CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
AND THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN AR. AND A GRADUAL DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO AR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODEST PV ADVECTION AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH 60-70 METER HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT DURING THIS TIME. ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR INVERTED TROUGH/PWAT RIDGE PIVOT (AMOUNTS LIGHT/LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST). MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A SECONDARY PV ANOMALY WITHIN BROADER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW.
SEVERAL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S.
BUT BREEZES WILL KEEP BREAKS IN THE LOWEST DECKS. BUT BREEZES WILL KEEP BREAKS IN THE LOWEST DECKS. WEAK 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS WHERE THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
352 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
414 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 CURRENTLY - LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS RESULTED IN A SPLIT RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST - WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN PERSISTS. A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM SOUNDINGS WANT TO HOLD ON TO MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BY MID TO LATER AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO CLEAR THINGS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AROUND 00Z BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE. SO IF CLOUDS DON'T CLEAR ACROSS NETN AND SWVA BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH TROUGH AXIS BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NETN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
342 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE AND DIMINISH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SECONDARY MSTR STARVED DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF SW TROUGH THROUGH WRN QB MAY GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR TWO AFT MIDNIGHT FAR NE AND RETAINED MENTION. PICTURESQUE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE.
A 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH ALLOWING THE RETURN OF EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ A closed low over the Great Lakes Region was creating west- northwesterly upper level flow across the Central United States this afternoon. mostly clear conditions were observed as high pressure filtered into the region. high pressure will continue to push across the CWA with the cloud cover over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas dissipating/exiting to the east and northeast. A few locations near the Oklahoma Kansas border could approach the freezing mark.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS IN OUR AREA WAS 2 INCHES NEAR JUMP RIVER IN NORTHWEST TAYLOR COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CAUSED THE HIGH WINDS TO CONTINUE. THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STEEP 950 TO 750 MB LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY HAS PANNED OUT TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 70'S AND AN ALMOST CLOUDLESS SKY.
606 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. /ISSUED 230 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING PULLING UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR A HOBBS/WINK TO SNYDER/SWEETWATER TO WICHITA FALLS LINE LATER TONIGHT.
727 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
AEX LINE IS SLOWLY TRYING TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING BUT FEEL LIKE IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
716 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WV IMAGERY AND RAP AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. I KEPT SPRINKLE MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS AND PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM. LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE AIR MASS MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S (SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY).
539 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016 AN UNSETTLED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WAVE LAST NIGHT THAT BROUGHT ROUGHLY 6-12 INCHES TO THESE MOUNTAINS.
847 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A QPF SIGNAL OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
PRIMARY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AS EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IN PLACE EARLIER TODAY HAS LOST MOST OF ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS DIMINISHED. VERY WEAK TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THURS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WITH DIURNAL WARMING POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON /AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING OVERHEAD/.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP AND WARMER AIR STILL IN PLACE. WITH WINDY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
1132 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER WI. DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW WAS ALLOWING FOR STRONG VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.