Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak mid level shear axis at 500mbs continues overhead across east central FL with increasing low level SE flow below 850 mbs around the Atlc ridge. Highs around 90 along the coast to the lower to mid 90s for the interior.
A strong push of warm air in the low levels will allow daytime heating to mix this warmer air down to the surface with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values 105-107F. Winds become a little more southerly on Wednesday through all lower levels retrograding the higher temperatures aloft back towards Kansas.
Dry cold front with gusty winds will pass through eastern Oregon late today and western Idaho this evening. Wednesday will be significantly cooler and less windy.
1127 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 A weak frontal boundary will drop from southern Virginia south through North Carolina today through tonight, as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into New England.
Temperatures will be on the hot side with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The high resolution convection allowing models are supporting this scenario was well moving the NE MCS through the southwest third this morning. Models show weak, varied surface flow across IA by afternoon with weak convergence along the northeast extension of current KS low and southeast NE warm front. Thus have pulled highs today down toward the cooler end of MOS /GFS/.
Typically you can add 25F to morning lows and get a good first guess for the high temp. but the low-lvl jet is still initiating new shwrs and a few tstms on its Wrn fringe from Hwy 81 down into N-cntrl KS. and mean trofs along the coasts. This front will become stationary from SW-NE across KS tonight and eventually dissipate as the high drifts into the upr midwest. The MCS was at the terminus of the low-lvl jet. with trailing shwrs/tstms embedded within the low-lvl jet SSW all the way into Nrn OK. From then on, we will not be able to depend on the strength of the subtropical high to spare us from daytime perturbations and waves as it appears they will have the opportunity to skirt the north side of the ridge and affect our weather.
515 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Cold front will settle along the southern fringes of the forecast area today. The front will be the most likely place for widely scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and then spread northward tonight as the front also returns north as a warm front. Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature on Wednesday. There will be low chances of thunderstorms in western areas near the surface lee trough with daytime heating.
Should see varying degrees of cloudiness through the day which will likely keep temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days.
models bring a weakening cold front through the area. As such, will keep pops on the lower side (20-40). Should still see highs in the 80s with sticky dew points in the lower 70s. but then high pressure builds in through the rest of the day into Wednesday night for a dry period.
High pressure will then bring dry and seasonable temperatures for the rest of the work week.
1058 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeastern states will sink southward overnight as a cold front moves into the area from the north.
Given that fog and lower stratus has really been overdone by the high resolution models lately will hold off on including any fog in the grids for now and will keep things quiet with temps falling into the upper 20s to 30s. Even warmer and more moist air will advect into the region ahead of this system with dew points possibly pushing into the 50s in the far south. As the low moves through, precipitation will spread from southwest to northeast across the forecast area. As the low moves off to the northeast, precipitation chances will come to an end but decent warm advection will continue with westerly/southwesterly winds.
This will only delay the erosion of low clouds and keep high temps at least 5 degrees cooler than previously advertised.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 45 70 46 / 80 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 46 67 44 / 60 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 46 67 44 / 60 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 44 64 42 / 30 50 10 0.
The clouds will be produced by a an upper level low pressure system that will track across the Ozarks region today. Even warmer temperatures are expected Sunday as an upper level ridge transitions over the region and southerly winds persist.
A weak upper trough will bring some rain to Western Washington today.
925 mb temps will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, in the 10-13C range by Sunday afternoon.
The low clouds and fog may persist for several hours early Sunday morning before a significant improvement is noticed.
318 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 An upper level trough will approach from the west today and cross the southeastern U.
Upper level low and associated influences should shift EWD after 19/06Z and development of n/nwly flow aloft likely that models traditionally usher moisture associated with quicker E than actual occurrence. Most pronounced upper level building ridging influences W to E 19/12Z-19/18Z.
Outside of some possible lingering showers early Sunday morning over eastern areas, the short term period will feature a return of drier and tranquil weather as high pressure ridges in from the north.
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure will continue to build over the area from the southeast today.
152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper trough moving off the West Coast. This trough develops into a cut off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.
A weak cool front will drop south through the region tonight and early Sunday, followed by slightly cooler temperatures Sunday.
301 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 An upper level low continued to spin eastward across the Missouri bootheel while a dry slot has pushed the warm conveyor belt precipitation well to the north and east.
Deep trough across western coast of the United States in conjunction with upper level low moving across TN Valley today is helping to pump warm air into the region. Upper level low to our south moves into the Carolina coastal region and becomes an non- factor for us but the deep trough out west slowly pushes inland and continues the deep warm southerly flow as ridging becomes very pronounced over the central US. make make the lakefront areas a few degrees cooler than today or yesterday.
1142 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Early morning surface analysis indicated that the weak cold front had settled south of the CWA in northern MO/KS.
By Sunday afternoon, height falls will increase across western OK/TX as the mid to upper trough approaches. Moist convection appears likely before sunset Sunday along and ahead of a dryline, with increasing chances elsewhere later in the night as the trough moves across the panhandles.
246 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper low has moved across MS river valley and eastward across TN, with low clouds slowly eroding across ne TX as trailing wk warm frontal boundary movg nwd. Increased se winds and deepening southerly flow will disrupt these conditions durg early mrng and with aplified short wave ridging ovhd, expect a rapid warmup Sunday with highs either side of 80 degrees for all but mainly OK/AR portions of area what may remain in the 70s. Deep upper trough will produce a well defined axis of mstr and instability running north to south, reaching extreme western CWA by eve, although a few stray cells possible out ahead of axis.
119 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A wave of low pressure will pass offshore this evening and tonight.
Temperatures have warmed enough to not have freezing precip be a concern today. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Model 500mb heights continue to carve out a relatively amplified trough across the western U. coast with a downstream ridge. The trough axis shifts northeast Sunday night becoming oriented northwest to southeast through western Montana and into Wyoming. Thermal profiles suggest a wintry mix with mainly rain in the southern zones and snow, sleet, and freezing rain a potential near the Canadian border.
202 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper Low now drifting across PAH FA is pinwheeling scattered showers about the area, as seen on latest radar pics/loop. This will continue into the evening hours, then wind down/diminish, as the Low drifts off to the east. Tmrw should eventually see a scour out of clouds though, with sunshine and warmth returning as High pressure works in overhead at the surface and aloft. Look for a rebound into the lower 70s both Sun-Mon. Clouds increase again late Mon-Mon night as the ridge moves east and height falls work in from the west.
Chance of showers will increase on Sunday as northern portion of split trof approaches from the west. Better chance of rain will be in our east overnight as trof lifts to the northeast, offering a period of stronger ascent and deeper moisture closer to the Dakota borders. Temps should stay too warm for much if any snow accumulation in our east, even over the higher hills.
1213 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Weak low pressure will approach from central Canada today and track north of the area tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region later Sunday.
Otherwise the main forecast concern into the overnight before the upper trough axis can push east will be with lingering low level moisture and if areas of fog develop. We will have quite the pleasant Sunday on tap given a quick transition to subsident driven clearing by mid morning thanks to strong ridging. it will be hard to believe it's a mid Feb day with many locations progged to reach the low 70s.
Lows will only fall into the middle 40s thanks to the lingering cloud cover and the fact that we won't see much intrusion of cooler air with the system today. Deep ridging quickly builds in Sunday morning as the area is in the middle of an Omega block. Clouds should clear out by the afternoon and temps will quickly warm into the lower to middle 70s.
A strong Pacific storm system will bring some valley rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures this weekend.
In addition temperatures in that region are running about five degrees cooler than forecast. /issued 342 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ Cloudy, mild and occasionally rainy conditions to prevail across the Midsouth today, under a slow moving upper level low.
Temperatures ranged from the low to mid 60s where it rained to around 80 ahead of the line. Water vapor showed small upper level low was centered in eastern Arkansas with dry air wrapping around it and heading toward the big bend area of Florida. The blend of models wants to keep a chance of rain in the forecast area through 12Z as it stalls a weak cold front across south Florida.
Thermal ridge continuing to remain well-entrenched over the intermountain west.
324 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will push further northwards this evening and will be followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday.
This will only delay the erosion of low clouds and keep high temps at least 5 degrees cooler than previously advertised. /issued 433 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ A highly amplified trough will move inland from the west coast today and will be in control of our weather for the next few days. The approaching upper level trough will cause a surface response with winds swinging around to the east-southeast this evening and overnight which will begin to draw up low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico where surface dew points are currently in the 60s.
Upper level low centered along the Central Mississippi Valley will track eastward today. Scattered showers over southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida are having a tough time sticking together as the dry slot from the upper low is working in across the Florida Panhandle.
More clouds today and the continued snow cover are keeping temps a couple degrees cooler. A deep upper level trough currently over Southern California will produce ridging over the Nation's midsection today with warm temperatures continuing.
It's more easily picked up on water vapor imagery as drier and cooler air aloft with more northwesterly flow advects into the region. Overall the longwave pattern changes little through Sunday as strong trough over the west coast keeps re-building and strengthening the ridge over the central plains.
/issued 451 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ Upper level low continues to lift northeast toward the middle MS Valley and generally away from our region. As the upper low ejects farther away from the region this afternoon, expect these rain chances to further diminish and clouds to show some breaks with periods of occasional sunshine especially over our southwest half of the CWA. Across SE OK and SW AR, cooler readings are expected with clouds lingering and highs only in the mid 60s. An even warmer day is in store on Sunday as upper ridging sets up while southerly flow really begins to ramp up in the low levels. Highs will average around 80 degrees with warmer temps over our southern zones in the lower to mid 80s and only slightly cooler across the north with mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, trended toward the warmer guidance or above across much of the area.
Sunday and Sunday night look to be a dry period as high pressure shifts back over the area. Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley regions. Above normal temperatures will persist during the weekend as well, with highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected, and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday. Tonights lows should only fall into the low to mid 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph today, and will shift to the west on Sunday after the area of low pressure moves off to our east.
136 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 A deep upper trough covers the west coast, with ridging over the northern plains. Warm air advection will continue Sunday in southwest flow ahead of the approaching western CONUS trough. As the trough moves through the region Sunday night, a cool front and showers will push into the area. Most of the precipitation is expected to be rain, but some light snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations.
As we approach Sunday morning, the mid-level trough swings through which could bring out some showers if enough available moisture remains.
Precipitation will continue today across the entire area ahead of a weak upper level trough. The upper level trough will move through the forecast area later this evening for a brief break in the precipitation. Snow levels right around 5000 feet this morning with temperatures at Bogus Basin, McCall and Lowman at or just above freezing were wet snow was falling at 09z. Another weak trough moves on shore Sunday bringing another round showers to the region. The later trough passage timing of Sunday afternoon favors better instability for more convective showers and possible a few thunderstorms in Southwest Idaho.
A nice warm-up is ongoing this afternoon with temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. Drizzle to light rain and even a few moderate showers are expected mid-morning on Sunday as instability increases and the upper short- wave trough above mentioned travels across the four corners region.
306 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 The primary feature of interest in the short term is a low- latitude trough which is evident in early-afternoon water vapor imagery over Baja. This upper-air system will continue east through the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico tonight into Sunday before phasing with a polar-branch disturbance over the High Plains Sunday night.
This may spark some light rain/freezing rain across far north central North Dakota in the morning. As the main upper level trough moves into the plains Sunday night more widespread rain is expected.
318 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper level low to track east of region tonight. Central/northeast MO and west central IL have had quite a bit of sunshine today, while rest of area was cloudy due to upper low. As the low tracks east, should see clouds scatter out everywhere by midnight. Upper level ridge to build in on Sunday with southerly surface winds returning.
957 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary just south and west of the forecast area, with weak low pressure over central WY. Upper level analysis shows trough just off the west coast, with southwest flow extending across the western US into the Northern Plains. Very mild weather will continue through the weekend as the frontal boundary lifts slowly north and east as a warm front today and tonight. Mild conditions tonight as warm front lifts north of the area overnight, mid 30s to upper 40s for lows. Highs will range from the 50s over parts of northwest SD and the higher Black Hills to around 70 from parts of west central to south central SD.
216 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday, especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. The upper level low which brought some light showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into the area from the west later today and tonight.
1149 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will push east through the region today and will be quickly followed by a weak cold front this evening. A secondary cold front will approach from the north on Sunday and will drop south through the region Sunday night.
Currently an upper low pressure system spins across the Bootheel of Missouri and the western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee with a nice swath of cloud cover swinging across the southeast quarter of Conus. After which, we should see weak ridging begin to take hold over Eastern Conus.
A cold front is moving through this morning and bringing with it valley rain and mountain snow.
340 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Low pressure tracks along southern Canada, and into northern New England tonight, and then into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front with the low passes through the region late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure builds in behind the low Sunday night.
Another mild night in store for the area tonight, with above freezing temps holding across the south, and a little cooler to the north. Looks like there will be a little more cloud cover around too, but will go with highs Sunday a little warmer than Saturday.
This as a sharply drier mid and upper westerly flow has developed as low pressure aloft now over Arkansas continues to advance northeast. Warm and dry weather is expected today and Sunday with heights across the region rising in response to a digging Pacific trough that will be approaching from the west. Southerly flow in advance of the upper level trough will allow tropical moisture to be transported into the area through the weekend.
North of the low, a banded area of rainfall has developed over northern Kentucky and will be moving eastward setting up over locations in eastern Kentucky just north of the Mountain Parkway. Still though, with a more warmer flow in place, temps will rebound to near or above 60 degrees tomorrow. By Sunday night, with ridging becoming well entrenched over the area, relatively mostly clear skies will be in place. If we clear out any more for tomorrow night, the fog will be more dense in places as well as a steeper ridge to valley temperature gradient for that matter.
1224 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 High pressure will continue to build over the area from the southeast today.
As the upper low begins a more easterly track, it will help fill in the clear slot and bring in additional shower chances mainly to areas north of I-40 this afternoon and evening, and to the northern Plateau during the early overnight hours. Highs around 70 and even into the low 70s will be possible west of the Plateau, and mid 60s on the Plateau. Sunday night into the first half of Sunday, the upper level ridge axis will cross the mid state, and allow for temperatures to be even warmer.
851 AM PST Sat Feb 18 2017 A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered showers today and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
1117 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 Areas of mid and high clouds moving towards the CWA early this morning ahead of an upper trough that is digging off the California/Baja coast. A weak impulse moving northeast ahead of this system may bring a few showers to the higher mtns mainly this morning otherwise a mild day across the CWA today with varying amounts of mid/high clouds. The upper trough will begin lifting northeast later tonight and Sunday with another impulse bringing a few showers once again mainly to the higher mtns this evening. The main upper trough will then pass by the area Sunday evening bringing more widespread rain and snow with snow mainly confined to the mtns with not much cold air associated with this system.
150 PM PST Sat Feb 18 2017 A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered showers today and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
302 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper level low center pivoting in Western Kentucky this hour.
The upper level low has moved over Arkansas this morning and will continue eastward through the day.
110 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper Low now drifting across PAH FA is pinwheeling scattered showers about the area, as seen on latest radar pics/loop. This will continue into the evening hours, then wind down/diminish, as the Low drifts off to the east. Tmrw should eventually see a scour out of clouds though, with sunshine and warmth returning as High pressure works in overhead at the surface and aloft. Look for a rebound into the lower 70s both Sun-Mon. Clouds increase again late Mon-Mon night as the ridge moves east and height falls work in from the west.
Upper level low over the Southwestern United States will weaken and lift northeastward into Colorado by Sunday night.
Showers ongoing this morning across far east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas associated with the upper low in western Arkansas are on a definite downward swing and should be gone within the next hour or so. This light rain is associated with upper low currently moving across eastern OK. Sunday will likely be the warmer of the weekend days. Early morning water vapor imagery is sampling the western US trough.
An upper low will continue moving over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with any rain chances remaining well east of the region. Model consensus suggests increasing rain and embedded thunderstorm chances areawide Sun evening, lingering into Mon over far eastern Kansas, as a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Model consensus and GFS ensembles suggest warm and quiet weather will likely continue Tue-Wed, as upper ridging builds over Mid- America.
Boundary will lift north on Sunday allowing temperatures to rise back into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the warmer readings further east across central MO where morning low clouds will not be as thick or widespread. Areas of rain and a few thunderstorms will spread into the area late Sunday night ahead of a weakening upper trough tracking across the Plains.
The current surface map shows a broad area of low pressure stretching from Vancouver Island British Columbia down through ID/western MT and northern WY. As our ridge stretching across eastern ND through northern IA continues to exit the picture, the trough to our west will become the story for the next 24 hours.
easterly component of the low level winds may try to expand the western edge of the fog into the far eastern portions of the forecast area in northwest Iowa and potentially southwest Minnesota.
Upper low continues to move east of the area with only a small area of light rain impacting KPBF for another hour or so. but closed upper level low rotates slowly over the state this morning. Chances for rain decrease by this afternoon and especially this evening as the closed upper low moves east of the state. Dry conditions will then be seen for the rest of this Sat night and for much of Sun as a fairly amplified upper ridge moves east over the state. A larger scale upper trough will approach the state from the west late in the short term period.