Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EDGES FURTHER EAST. WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON OR ABOUT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 11TH.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. RELATIVELY COOLER AIR. WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER ONT/MAN. PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN US. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. WARMER THU WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 100-104 RANGE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST ND.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with southwest momentum across the Rockies to our northwest. continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas.
605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit precipitation chances. Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the forecast at this point. The upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the Intermountain West.
1010 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN DEEP. SOME OF THE LOWER- TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC DATA MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMBIENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. /ISSUED / SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIP. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF OVER TEXAS.
935 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 DESPITE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES (-5.
1246 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE COAST.
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
941 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
THE BROAD RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US MOSTLY DRY LATELY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ENERGIZED PAC NW FLOW FINALLY STARTS TO BEAT DOWN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION.
19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight.
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER DEVELOPING TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN. WESTERN UPPER LOW WAS INDUCING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AT 850MB WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD. BELIEVE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING.
725 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN.
500MB LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
620 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS OKLAHOMA FOR A DAY OR SO. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.
"DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
1241 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF SLOWLY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING. RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROF DEEPENS IN THE WEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY STATES. WITH DEW PTS ALSO IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. 09 /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RSB /ISSUED 146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DISTINCT TROF/WAVE AT UPPER LEVELS OVER MS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE OF OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT, SO AM HESITANT TO ADD FOG IN JUST YET DESPITE THE HIGH AMOUNT OF BL RH EXPECTED.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 93 70 91 / 0 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 91 68 89 / 0 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 91 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 89 64 86 / 10 20 10 20.
753 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
611 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 Upper level disturbance in the lower Mississippi River Valley was causing some isolated showers to our southwest this afternoon.
1101 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 MAY SEE SOME A SPOTTY SHOWER TRY TO POP UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40KTS OVERNIGHT. WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER DEVELOPING TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN. WESTERN UPPER LOW WAS INDUCING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AT 850MB WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD. BELIEVE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY.
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS TWO WEAK TROFS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH WEAK LOWS IN THE PLAINS.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TOMORROW.
UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A BROAD H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS FL TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE - WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AS A TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THIS HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING WINDS VEERING BUT STAYING LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KSSI AT 12Z. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW AND THE WARM COASTAL WATERS.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE WHOLE. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit precipitation chances. Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the forecast at this point. The upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the Intermountain West.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND A COOL POOL ALOFT WILL (500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -19 AND -21C) WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING MAX HEATING.
NOT SEEING AS MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPPER LOW MAY BE WEAKENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW.
1152 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 Upper level disturbance in the lower Mississippi River Valley was causing some isolated showers to our southwest this afternoon.
752 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
757 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.
635 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DISTINCT TROF/WAVE AT UPPER LEVELS OVER MS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE OF OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT, SO AM HESITANT TO ADD FOG IN JUST YET DESPITE THE HIGH AMOUNT OF BL RH EXPECTED.
1149 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 MAY SEE SOME A SPOTTY SHOWER TRY TO POP UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40KTS OVERNIGHT. WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER DEVELOPING TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN. WESTERN UPPER LOW WAS INDUCING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AT 850MB WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD. BELIEVE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS OKLAHOMA FOR A DAY OR SO. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.
HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING.
741 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST.
The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west coast. The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the upper ridge maintains it's grip on our weather.
FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE STORM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY.
WV imagery shows an upper trough along the upper Texas Gulf coast, making an intrusion into a ridge otherwise centered over Texas. Models take the trough south of Texas by late Thursday, and shear it out, allowing the ridge to re-establish.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS TRAILING A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z. "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/24Z. /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ SLUGGISH PATTERN CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO TENNESSEE BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ THE WEATHER OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER AIR RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE MEAN UPPER AIR RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN BENEATH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STIFFEN.
STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW.
839 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND DISSIPATE. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR KMHK TO KHUT TO JUST SOUTH OF KPTT AT 03Z. A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
1044 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT STEADILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CLEARING WILL BEGIN FROM THE NORTH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME VERY COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM CANADA WITH 8 TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING. CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES TO DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
A weak cold front will move south across the area late tonight and on Friday. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible A cold front is currently located across the Texas Panhandle and is forecast to slowly make progress south this afternoon and tonight.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE UT/NV BORDER BY TOMORROW AFTN AND TO THE UT/CO BORDER BY 00Z MON. THE LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT SUN AND WARMS A LITTLE MORE WITH TEMPS BUMPING UP A FEW MORE DEGREES.
OVERALL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT WEAKER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST VIA RIDGE.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE LATER IN THE DAY, LOOK FOR OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE, WITH STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EASTERN AREAS HAVE HAD LESS COVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 CLOSER TO INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERLYING THE AREA WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT.
720 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S. BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST ND.
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TIED MORE TOWARD POST FRONTAL/MID-LEVEL TROUGH PV- ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHWEST WI/SOUTHERN MN/EASTERN SD. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR DRYING/COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS.