Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE BRIEF AS THE STRONG CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SPINS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD FAVOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUMPING THE DIVIDE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND AND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT TRAVELS TOWARD THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME CONCERN AS TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY INHIBIT DEEPER TRANSPORT BACK AROUND THE LOW.
SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL HIT THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NORTHERN NV. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE CENTER OVER THE CA/NV/AZ TRIPLE POINT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NV ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.
OUR AREA LIES BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CLOSER TO HOME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS BRINGING THE REGION SOUTHERLY WINDS AS TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S.
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH ENHANCED SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
544 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE H850 TEMPS WILL DROP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE THE SW FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NORTH OF THE REGION AND TRACK A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED.
516 AM CDT Fri May 8 2015 An upper level trough is centered over southern California with southwest flow aloft over the CWA. The previously mentioned upper trough will begin moving over the region on Saturday with thunderstorms possible across the very far eastern CWA. The upper trough will mainly move to the north of the area with the base passing over the CWA on Saturday. High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday afternoon as the higher winds from the base of the trough mix downward.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS TRAPPED BY A DEEP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CAROLINA COAST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIFTS INTO S FL AND WEAKENS THE LOW/MID LVL PGRAD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP WHILE LIGHT WRLY STEERING FLOW KEEPS IT PINNED NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE MORE OF A SIGNAL OF CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HRS. ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD INTO CENTRAL FL AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DRIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
143 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH ANOTHER LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
TO THE LOWER 70S OVER PARTS OF THE DELTA REGION WHERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE OCCURRING. THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT A 30 KT 850 MB LLJ MAY HELP SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WAS NE MS WHICH SHOULD STAY DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING TOUGH THERE.
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WILL HEAD FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
For the next couple of days, high temperatures will be near normal as an upper trough/cutoff low approaches from the west.
239 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A wide range of temperatures is in place across the region this morning, with 2 AM readings ranging from the low 50s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas to the low to mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks. High pressure will remain centered over the Ohio Valley today, slowly pushing east toward the Mid Atlantic by tonight. Highs today over far western Missouri and southeastern Kansas should warm to around 70, with cooler readings in the low to mid 60s further east. Much warmer conditions are expected by Monday, with highs well into the 70s. Conditions may begin to approach Red Flag conditions over the far northwestern portions of the forecast area Monday afternoon, especially if temperatures end up being a bit warmer than currently expected.
THE TRI STATE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER AN H5 RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND NORTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MTN REGION WHILE A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
Upper low has closed off today just offshore the northwest corner of California. The frontal zone and deep moisture plume ahead of the low has been slowly moving southeast, but still quite a few showers and thunderstorms continuing over the Sierra to the south of Lake Tahoe. Isolated to scattered showers will continue overnight as the closed low moves onshore over northwest California, and then inland across the Sacramento Valley on Sunday.
Our forecast area will remain positioned on the southeastern periphery of a low-level anticyclone that will be situated across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi River Valleys.
PWS LESS THAN ONE INCH AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
REMNANTS OF CURRENT SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT WEAKLY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF INDIANA. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
153 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, AND CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR DAWN SUNDAY AND AGAIN DAWN MONDAY.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 13/MM LOOKING OUT IN THE LONG RANGE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF INDIANA. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
ROTATION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE REGION CAN BE SEEN AT THIS TIME BOTH ON THE SATELLITE AND THE RADAR LOOPS WITH THE CENTER OF ROTATION JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE STATE LINE. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS INLAND TREK WITH BANS OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF IT SHIFTING EAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEAKER FRONT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET SUBFREEZING BY DAWN SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SFC PRES FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH.
WARMER AIR WILL BEING TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY. WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE GIVEN HOW CLOSE IT IS TO FREEZING AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. EVEN THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME FAIR WEATHER VFR CU WILL DOT THE SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH NW WINDS EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE REGION.
343 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR DAWN SUNDAY AND AGAIN DAWN MONDAY.
333 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A COOL/DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. THE FROST THREAT THIS MORNING IS BEING HAMPERED INITIALLY BY NORTH WINDS OF 4-6 MPH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS. BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COOL/DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ALLOW HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND. 39 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK RESULTING IN DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH BE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 H AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS. A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
341 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE WITHOUT WIND HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ORIENTED TO THE EAST. WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP OVER NV TO START THE DAY. SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH WRN/NC NEB AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS. WHICH REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
Despite the upper ridge beginning to break down across the Central Plains on Monday, the 850 mb temperatures across the high plains increases by Monday afternoon. Temperatures along and ahead of the eastern Colorado trough should exceed 80 degrees Monday afternoon.
A surface analysis early this morning showed high pressure anchored over southwest Indiana with clear skies prevailing across the region. As of 3 am, readings varied from the low/mid 30s in the sheltered cold spots to the low 40s around Louisville metro. Plan on a quick rebound in temperatures by mid-morning as the high pressure shifts over Kentucky and highs will top out in the mid 50s to around 60. As a result, we'll have a light southerly flow develop and overall warmer air (850 mb temps rise from -1C this morning to +8C Monday morning). Plan on lows in the mid/upper 30s, coolest in the southeast forecast area where some isolated spots may dip to around freezing.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT MONDAY.
ON MON AN UPR TROF WL BE OVR NV AND WL THEN MOVE INTO UT AND WRN WY MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROF. TEMPS ON WED WL BE MUCH COOLER AND WL BE BELOW AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES. KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH KALS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY MAKING WAY FOR LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN FELT RECENTLY.
407 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A MOIST UNSETTLED FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LATEST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE PLENTIFUL AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SOME SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE WESTERN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. WESTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OR PIECES OF ENERGY LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
510 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO IMPRESSIVE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 3 TO 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE ARKLATEX FOR THE WORK WEEK.
347 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
512 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY COOLED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS THE LATEST HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOWN AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
336 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING DOWN FL PENINSULA APPROACHING I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OFF COOLER AIR EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASING SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL LEAN INTO IOWA ON MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14C TO 16C ARRIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING PUTTING AND END TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT INCHING TOWARDS THE EAST- NORTHEAST TODAY AND MONDAY WHILE A SHARPENING TROUGH ACROSS SOCAL BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY NOW SITS TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND IT ALONG WITH A COOLER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, THOUGH MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY WITH THE CIRRUS NOT PLAYING MUCH A ROLE.
Believe the mid clouds seen on satellite, out west in IA and MO will not make it into the CWA until late afternoon given the slowness of clouds and the eastward movement of the high pressure area. As the ridge moves just to the east, the winds begin to pick up a more southerly fetch, contributing to a moderation of temperatures.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY. WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE GIVEN HOW CLOSE IT IS TO FREEZING AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. EVEN THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NO FLIGHT IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE REGION.
Winds have really dropped out over southern Illinois where most sites have dropped below freezing. We just dropped below freezing here at the office in the last hour.
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ITS GRIP OVER THE STATE AS IT SINKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STRATUS ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER THEY SHOULD SAG BACK TOWARD FREEZING BY SUNRISE. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL GENERALLY TO NEAR OR WELL BELOW FREEZING. LARGE SCALE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PULLS EAST AND RIDGING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BECOMES COMMON IN MORE OF THE AREA.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL CROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AND THEREFORE THINK DEW POINTS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW WILL RISE A TAD INTO THE LOWER 30S. STILL HAVE A DECENT THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Expect increasing isentropic lift across far eastern Kansas as the nose of the low-level jet pushes into the area. With continued dry air in the low- levels, expect relative humidity values in the mid/upper 20 percent range this afternoon. With these conditions in place, have trended warmer than guidance for temperatures tonight with lows in the low 50s to upper 50s from east to west.
105 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, AND CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
250 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR TODAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW PROVIDES WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DID NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING LAST NIGHT. FRANKLIN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE LOWEST MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AS OF 9PM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SITUATED RIGHT OVER WV/SWPA TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST.
240 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT FUNNELED THE NOVEMBER-ISH TYPE AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY WHILE INCREASING HEIGHTS A LOFT BUILD IN WITH THE RIDGING. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY.
135 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY.
252 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES COMING INTO THE PLAINS REGION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA MEXICAN BORDER. PERIOD STARTS OFF QUITE MILD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION. RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME AND FLATTENS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WHERE THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GOING FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ADVECT IN COLD AIR KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S DESPITE THE AMPLE SUPPLY OF INSOLATION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STRATUS ARE GENERALLY NEAR FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL GENERALLY TO NEAR OR WELL BELOW FREEZING. LARGE SCALE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PULLS EAST AND RIDGING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BECOMES COMMON IN MORE OF THE AREA.
421 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY AND MONDAY AS LEE TROF DEEPENS FURTHER.
540 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL PA. WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE GROWING SEASON. COINCIDENT WITH THERMAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE LWR OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE MD/WV PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING/SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS. THAT SAID THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE LOWER 48.
The upper level low which has been just off the coast is now moving inland, now centered over far northwestern California.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s to possibly near 60 across western 1/3 of the area.
THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARMING TREND.
WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA PUSHES THROUGH WILLISTON AND DICKINSON BY SUNSET. MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAS VERY WEAK AND WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE DRY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
Snow levels will continue to be relatively high, so only the highest peaks will experience any snow today.
THE HIGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE MIDATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF LIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold morning across the CWA with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 30s. Area of high pressure that has been responisble for the frosty mornings will begin to move east today and this will allow some moderation in the temperature as the wind comes around to the south. Have most locations getting into the lower 60s today.
VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 09Z BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RELAX WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR DAWN SUNDAY AND AGAIN DAWN MONDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY PROCEED EASTWARD TODAY AND MONDAY. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. AND THEN THE LOW ITSELF WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MAINTAINING A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM CALIFORNIA AND OREGON INTO NEVADA TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST OF HWY 83 TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK. EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHICH WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE FORECAST ANALYSIS SEEMS TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT.