Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid to upper level ridge centered over the ArkLaTex remains strong and will continue to expand over TX today. Highs will once again climb from the low 90s along the coast to near 101 degrees across our northwestern counties. Ridging will continue to move westward into TX in the next few days, providing more subsidence into the region.
The main threats look to be damaging wind as the low levels remain somewhat dry. Thanks to the overnight cloud cover and additional moisture in the atmosphere, temperatures are noticeably warmer compared to the last couple nights where temperatures at some of the higher elevation locations reached freezing or near freezing levels. The high pressure system over Texas will progress in its journey towards the Southwest Region over the next few days.
Today we are on the backside of that with higher heights nudging in which despite the high moisture levels and decent instability, will act to suppress development somewhat. Also without a forcing mechanism, the storms will be primarily over the higher terrain to start, potentially moving out into the lower elevations late in the day as deeper outflows come into play. Then isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop after 22/20Z, mainly over the higher terrain at first then moving into the valleys later in the afternoon. /issued 258 AM MST Wed Jun 22 2022/ An elongating ridge building in from the east has brought a broad favorable synoptic flow to continue to support increasing moisture from the south and southeast (with a weak low upstream providing a modest assist).
1228 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Drier and cooler air will continue to filter into the region today and tonight behind a cool front.
346 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure continues to remain over the region; however, a weak cold front is slowly progressing to the southeast. Across the area, dewpoints range from the mid-60s into the mid-70s with current temperatures ranging from the low to mid-90s. Attention turns from the the heat towards the approaching cold front.
This humidity is riding over a low amplitude ridge sitting over the south central CONUS. The crescent moon's light will be filtered through an area of high clouds riding southern the ridge overnight.
129 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Water vapor imagery shows dry, zonal/weakly ridged flow over the northern plains. Upper ridge will amplify slightly tonight and Thursday, as a Canadian low pressure system slides into the Pacific NW.
Cu field has developed this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front currently pushing through the southern half of Indiana. Outside of areas that have seen rainfall, there are many locations with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints continuing to hold steady in the low to mid 70s. The weak cold front should clear the area by early tomorrow morning, and gradually usher in some drier and slightly 'cooler' air for Thursday.
High pressure, centered along the Iowa/Nebraska border, dominates the region currently with mostly sunny skies and light winds. As this feature drifts slowly east tonight, weak low pressure takes shape to the west. On Thursday, continuous southerly flow will advect warm and moist air northward into and across the High Plains, underneath a broad, low-amplitude upper-level ridge. The presence of the aforementioned upper-level ridge will shield the area from any substantial forcing.
754 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) The hot dome of high pressure aloft will remain the biggest factor over the short term period. We are seeing some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon under the ridge. Expect more subsidence in association with the ridge tomorrow and less depth of moisture to limit any of this isolated afternoon activity more to southern zones tomorrow. Anticipating temperatures will likely peak a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow with still enough humidity to bring peak heat index values into the 105-110 degree range in most areas.
Probabilities of MVFR condition are very low in the KMFE as subsidence increases with mid-level high pressure becoming centered over Texas. Deep South Texas will be slightly cooler tonight due to clearer skies. Have temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Tomorrow's lows will be a couple of degrees cooler than tonight's with mostly clear skies forecast again.
It stands a good chance of bursting through in a few places like the higher terrain south and east of Tucson and with any luck a few outflows may trigger a few more.
Synoptically, the influences from a closed low over Southern California is both allowing for the advection of moisture and providing mid and upper level energy across the desert Southwest, including much of Arizona.
803 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure to the west should begin to induce westerly winds beginning tomorrow.
909 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the region.
Convective activity has diminished significantly through the evening due to some drier air moving in through the lower levels and steadily weakening kinematic fields. Short Term Update - The ridge will remain across Florida and weaken further through the overnight period. A weakening ridge across Florida will result in winds continuing to relax and shift more easterly through the overnight period.
These clouds and onshore flow will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday in the northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valleys. However, the Northern Sacramento Valley will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Otherwise, a broad ridge stays in place and temperatures will remain above average.
Radar and moisture advection trends support a dry forecast for tonight as the last of the thunderstorms was exiting southern Lawrence county along with the weak cold front and higher dew points. The drier air combined with sunset, decoupling winds and a temperature inversion will provide for good radiational cooling, mostly clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Expect lows tonight and tomorrow generally in the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s.
709 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the region.
Temperatures will get hot on Thursday, climbing into the lower 90s for most locations, and into the mid 90s in west central Minnesota.
750 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the region.
930 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The drier air has filtered into central Indiana in the wake of a weak cold front, that has moved into northern Kentucky. Skies will clear overnight, under the influence of subsidence, associated with high pressure and dry advection. This should allow temperatures to bottom out at least in the lower to middle 60s. Expect lows tonight and tomorrow generally in the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s.
318 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Upper ridging is producing clear skies across the region this afternoon. The ridge will slide eastward tonight but will still produce mostly clear skies. On Thursday, an upper low will move eastward over southern Canada with the upper trough axis approaching our region from the west. This trough will bring stronger winds aloft and large-scale ascent over south central MT. A surface cold front will also move eastward Thursday afternoon-evening which will help to initiate convection in the more favorable environment.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ Subsidence associated with a mid level ridge directly overhead will keep the sweltering summer heat going for the next few days. Convection would be associated with either the seabreeze across the southern counties, or a subtle weakness embedded in the ridge over East Texas. /Issued 314 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Hot and dry weather is expected through the weekend as subsidence continues beneath a mid-level ridge.
209 PM PDT Wed Jun 22 2022 An upper low will continue to draw mid level moisture northward across the area through this evening with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, focusing over the mountains and deserts.
922 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure centered across WI this evening continues to make inroads across northern Michigan, centering overhead late tonight into Thursday morning. A few typically cooler locations could dip into the lower 40s.
(Rest of tonight) Light north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, along the edge of a 500-mb ridge centered across the Red River Valley region of northern TX/southern OK.
846 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Mostly clear skies will persist through Thursday as high pressure crosses the area.
942 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Issued 942 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022) High pressure moving over the region will bring quiet weather overnight into Thursday. Highs Thursday remain in the middle to perhaps upper 80s inland, turning cooler near the lake. Wood (Issued 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure should expand into the region tonight and daytime cu should subside around sunset. Don't think widespread fog will be too much of a concern as soundings show a deep dry layer in the lower atmosphere. Nice weather should continue tomorrow with lighter southwesterly winds as the high pressure center passes overhead. It'll be a bit warmer as the ridge axis passes overhead with highs in the upper 80s.
Draped over portions of West Texas and the Trans-Pecos early this morning, the far southwestern flank of the boundary has returned west-northwest as a warm front through the early afternoon hours, currently evident across portions of far southeastern New Mexico. High pressure is centered to our southeast in the Gulf of Mexico, allowing southeasterly surface flow to prevail across the area. Occurring as the mid level high pressure center begins to drift directly overhead, expect triple digit temperature readings to return to portions of the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Rio Grande Plains, where highs will range from 100-104. Given the relatively consistent signals across the global and mesoscale guidance, as well as the antecedent activity we have seen during the last several afternoons, have thus accounted for this low-end potential in tomorrow's forecast.
635 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening with passage of a cold front.
533 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Water vapor imagery shows dry, zonal/weakly ridged flow over the northern plains. Upper ridge will amplify slightly tonight and Thursday, as a Canadian low pressure system slides into the Pacific NW.
302 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Satellite imagery this aftenoon indicates areas scattered to broken cumuls over the peaks/ridges across the southern half of the CWA. As the low currently over the California coast begins to move eastward, a small surge of moisture will be pushed northward across the forecast area Thursday morning.
659 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Summary: Warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday.
Delayed departure of the elevated portion of this morning's surface cold front has allowed for another day of above average highs with temps topping out in the upper 80s/low 90s. Remainder of said cold front is vacating the region late this afternoon setting up a brief airmass replacement for the latter half of this work week. Thermal trough settles over lower MI daytime Thursday as lower level anticyclonic flow develops across the region. Resultant columns remain unsaturated throughout the day leading to sunny skies and ample insolation supporting near normal highs in the low 80s. With minimal change in airmass or sky cover, expectation is for Thursday night to be similar to tonight with lows falling into the 50s (albeit a couple degrees warmer as thermal trough begins shifting to our east).
A cold front will southward and across the area tonight through Thursday.
558 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates areas scattered to broken cumulus over the peaks/ridges across the southern half of the CWA. As the low currently over the California coast begins to move eastward, a small surge of moisture will be pushed northward across the forecast area Thursday morning.
942 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening with passage of a cold front.
/issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ Upper ridge is providing hot weather across the region this afternoon with temperatures already reaching 100 degrees at a few locations. An approaching back door cold front will provide isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening.
625 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Well the surface winds increased enough to help some low level mixing, and get the dewpoints into the low to mid 60s so Nashville could see its first 100 degree reading in nearly 10 years this afternoon. There is still a risk of a strong to severe storm, but the main threat with any strong storms that develop would be gusty winds as the deep layer shear is on the weaker side despite the higher instability.
625 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the region.
621 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The synoptic cold front appears to be just south of Reynolds county across southern Missouri. As drier and cooler air continues filtering into the region this evening, even the minimal chance for precip in our south will diminish. Convective debris from overnight storms in the Plains will likely help to suppress temperatures on Thursday, and the relatively cool and dry high pressure system to our northeast should also help to produce highs mainly in the upper 80s.
Cloud cover will improve through sunrise as upper level ridging continues to build and extend off the Rockies. Relatively light southeasterly winds will turn southerly by early Thursday morning increasing to 25-30 mph gusts towards noon as a leeside trough deepens across eastern Colorado due to daytime heating mixing to the surface. Morning lows will be a bit cooler in wake of the previous mid level disturbance seeing low to mid 60s for most across the CWA.
(Today) The surface analysis at 05Z indicated a weak cold front had dropped south into southeast KY through TN into northern AR.
By Friday, expect an upper level low over central Canada to deepen as it advances eastward. This feature will not only drag a cold front toward the region, but will also result in our next best chance for seeing severe weather.
Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge is centered over Texas and Oklahoma and extends across much of the country. An upper low will track across southern Canada through the period. The upper high will slowly drift east. A weak cold front will move into north Arkansas this morning.
(Today and tonight) Hot weather will continue today as a mid-level ridge remains centered across the Southern Plains.
lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected through the morning hours as a low pressure system begins to develop across eastern Colorado and into northern Kansas. As the day progresses, thunderstorm potential becomes more likely as the low intensifies. This trough will bring a good chance of thunderstorms to the region on Friday afternoon.
227 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Current surface map places weak high across the Dakotas Water vapor shows flat ridge from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest with upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. supported by latest CAMs Upper trough over Pacific Northwest moves into the Northern Plains Friday. with cold front sliding through the western Dakotas Friday afternoon. Buoyancy/shear favorable for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front.
/Issued 1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ /Through Thursday night/ High pressure will continue to dominate the Lone Star State through the end of the week with plenty of daytime sun and very hot temperatures. After a warm night with lows from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, afternoon highs Thursday will soar into the triple digits for most locations with some readings as high as 104.
High pressure, centered along the Iowa/Nebraska border, dominates the region currently with mostly sunny skies and light winds. As this feature drifts slowly east tonight, weak low pressure takes shape to the west. On Thursday, continuous southerly flow will advect warm and moist air northward into and across the High Plains, underneath a broad, low-amplitude upper-level ridge. The presence of the aforementioned upper-level ridge will shield the area from any substantial forcing. Pattern generally consistent with upper ridge holding on for one more day Friday before a strong cold front sweeps through Friday evening. The front and trough extending from a Contain low will push east Friday afternoon and evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms the area. Front will sweep through Friday night, with much cooler, windy and dry conditions through most of the weekend.
247 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer, mostly dry today.
307 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Sfc cold front this early morning is currently stretched along the Ohio River. Dew points to the south across central KY remain in the upper 60s to near 70, while to the north, across southern/central IN, dew points were in the low/mid 60s with even a few upper 50s. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees "less hot" than yesterday, in fact with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and dew points in the low 60s/upper 50s it will feel quite pleasant. High pressure slowly slides eastward overnight into Friday morning. This will keep skies clear, winds light and overnight temperatures in the low/mid 60s across the area.
1019 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Water vapor imagery shows dry, zonal/weakly ridged flow over the northern plains. Upper ridge will amplify slightly tonight and Thursday, as a Canadian low pressure system slides into the Pacific NW. Chances for thunderstorms increase Friday, as the upper low shifts eastward and stronger energy approaches our area. A cold front will help initiate some showers/storms in the morning, but better chances for strong to severe storms will be in the afternoon/evening across central SD, as 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of 0-6 km shear develop. Highs Friday will range from the 70s across the northwestern 1/3 of the CWA to the lower 90s across south central SD. The cooler, drier airmass settles over the region for the weekend.
A weak area of low pressure will move through the Great Basin today. Vort max will remain well to our north but the presence of both of these features should help spark another round of afternoon showers and storms on Friday, generally across the higher terrain of the eastern Highlands. Temperatures the next few days will be on the warm side of normal, although Fri will be a few degrees cooler than today with slightly lower H5 heights in place due to upper level trough sweeping north of the region.
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Looking at the latest SFC observations, a cold front remains located across SE Missouri. /issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ Upper ridge is providing hot weather across the region this afternoon with temperatures already reaching 100 degrees at a few locations. An approaching back door cold front will provide isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening. The frontal boundary will move through the forecast area tonight and provide a drier and slightly cooler airmass Thursday and Friday.
/20/ (This evening through Thursday Night) The hot dome of high pressure aloft will remain the biggest factor over the short term period. We are seeing some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon under the ridge. Expect more subsidence in association with the ridge tomorrow and less depth of moisture to limit any of this isolated afternoon activity more to southern zones tomorrow. Anticipating temperatures will likely peak a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow with still enough humidity to bring peak heat index values into the 105-110 degree range in most areas.
A very hot and mainly dry forecast is expected to continue through Friday as a strong upper-level ridge remains centered over the South-Central US.
104 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Mostly clear skies will persist through Thursday as high pressure crosses the area.
Closed low spiraling over central California that has been responsible for a significant lightning outbreak across the Golden State will begin to fill and lift into the Great Basin today. With recent rainfall dewpoints across much of the Mojave Desert have climbed into the 50s, and into the 40s across the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin. While some of this low level moisture will be mixed out with afternoon heating, still anticipating 250-750 j/kg of CAPE by the afternoon along with a fairly uniform southwesterly shear profile or 20-25 knots.
1134 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure centered across WI this evening continues to make inroads across northern Michigan, centering overhead late tonight into Thursday morning. A few typically cooler locations could dip into the lower 40s.
145 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A cold front moves south of the area this morning. High pressure then builds in for Thursday, remaining on Friday.
High pressure in the gulf is expected to meander around over the next several days.
This humidity is riding over a low amplitude ridge sitting over the south central CONUS. The crescent moon's light will be filtered through an area of high clouds riding southern the ridge overnight. The expected location of the ridge axis continues to slide west. If the cap holds, a Friday night cold front should be enough to initiate some showers and thunder.
Light winds under this high will also promote a lake breeze and associated cooler temperatures along the lakeshore of Lake Michigan this afternoon.
221 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure over the area will retreat to the west over the next few days. As of 150 AM: Deep upper ridge remains to our west and northwest, but trough crossing the Great Lakes has pulled a cold front as far south as southern Indiana and Ohio. A few MCSs developed ahead of the front Wed evening; some of their remnants are seen on radar over Virginia and now into central NC, following the mean flow around the ridge.
252 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will provide fair weather across central Illinois today.
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Issued 327 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022) Today and Tonight: High pressure over southern Wisconsin this morning will bring mostly clear skies and light winds. A lake breeze will keep areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline a little cooler. The high will move over Ohio tonight bringing light southwest winds to Wisconsin.
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Summary: Warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday.
1147 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates areas scattered to broken cumulus over the peaks/ridges across the southern half of the CWA. As the low currently over the California coast begins to move eastward, a small surge of moisture will be pushed northward across the forecast area Thursday morning. Drier air entrained in the westerly flow moving through the base of the trough lowers precipitable water levels while storm motion increases as steering winds aloft rise with the trough passage.
The low will finally move away for the coast on Friday, allowing high pressure to build in and bring rain-free and seasonable summer weather through the first half of the weekend.
301 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Flat upper level ridging will spread across the area today which will result in an increase in southerly winds and humidity. Dew point temperatures are expected to climb back into the lower to middle 60s while highs top out from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the highest readings in central SD.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Ridge positioning has shifted over TX/OK with increasing heights over the entire forecast area, albeit fairly minor.