Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Visibility may dip to MVFR in fog, but the low cloud deck will likely prevent dense fog from forming. A cold front that moved through the area yesterday has begun to wash out with southeasterly winds returning this morning. Aloft, ridging was building to our west with northwesterly mid level flow developing across our area. Models indicate a very unstable airmass this afternoon, however there won't be much of a trigger for convection other than the higher terrain. Meanwhile, a cold front will sink south across the TX Panhandle tonight with more showers and thunderstorms developing along this boundary.
321 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning and maybe early afternoon. A dry cold front is forecast to move to central GA at days end Saturday. BDL The dry pattern will get reinforced by a dry cold front that sweeps across the area Saturday night.
Upper level height falls and associated surface cold front will occur over the central and northern Plains this afternoon. with temps in the lower to mid 30s. By the time this front makes it into the Midsouth late tonight, it should arrive dry, but will provide a reinforcing push of cooler air for our weekend.
A cold front will move south across OK into north TX tonight. By afternoon, a ribbon of higher dewpoints will get drawn northward ahead of a cold front that will move into far northwest oklahoma by late today. A strong cold front, at least by May standards, will then move south through Oklahoma and into Texas into Saturday.
210 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front crossing pre-dawn today. A reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday morning.
The ridge axis is forecast by model guidance to extend from eastern MT across western ND, so we expect the coldest temperatures in western parts of the state. We are carrying a chance of showers along and east of the Highway 83 corridor in respect to that wave passage.
Mid level high and ridging will build across northern Mexico and into the Intermountain West. A cold front, which is located across north-central Texas, will slowly move towards deep south Texas but will undergo frontolysis as the mid level ridge strengthens. Not overly optimistic on this due to the aforementioned subsidence and dry air in the low-mid levels. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler than today owing to a few more clouds.
308 AM PDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures above normal through Friday. A dry cold front will move through the central california interior Saturday accompanied and followed by gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County mountains and desert this weekend.
Highs today climb into the low 70s across the area, with southwest winds generally 10-20mph. The higher winds are across the southeastern half of the forecast area, and is where red flag conditions are of concern.
251 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure will build in overhead tonight and on Friday.
259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. High pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the northern Rockies.
At the same time, the pressure gradient slackens as the warm front currently to the west moves overhead. The high clouds currently overhead will remain in place before clearing out Friday morning.
Warm air advection and westerly winds in advance of incoming cold front will keep temperatures mild tonight for this time of year.
Crystal clear skies are expected today with confluent upper-level flow over the forecast area downstream of split flow over the Plains and upstream of a trough over the Northeast. At low-levels, northerly flow will be in place initially between high pressure over Texas and low pressure lifting into Nova Scotia. Low-level flow will begin to transition to westerly by afternoon as high pressure slides towards the Gulf Coast, allowing high temperatures to moderate into the 60s for most. 32/Davis Mid and upper-level flow will become southwesterly Friday ahead of an upper low over Texas.
A warm up begins today as a sharp upper level ridge moves into the region. Highs today will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s, and highs on Fri will soar into the low to mid 60s! A decent rad cooling night tonight will allow low temps to bottom out in the mid to upper 30s.
218 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Warm above normal temperatures will continue this period across Kansas with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s, as upper level ridging builds across the central US.
332 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 A warm front will develop and lift across the region tonight into Friday morning. A warm front in the mid Mississippi Valley will develop further east as it lifts north overnight. Warm front will push north of the entire forecast area Friday morning. Southerly low level flow will ensue with an upper ridge building into the region. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for lows Friday night.
143 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper level ridge across the Northern Plains this afternoon. Weak cold front slips through the area Friday with highs around 10F cooler than today.
The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Friday ahead of upper low currently located over northern Mexico.
Scattered showers expected today behind a cold front that moved through early this morning.
1018 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper ridge in combination with lee troffing across the plains will bring record to near record high temperatures today across the plains. Current grids either tie or come within a degree of these values today as sunny skies and deep mixing tap warmer air aloft. Elsewhere across the mountains and valleys, temperatures today will be similar to a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Southwest flow increases overnight and lee troffing across the plains should keep temperatures fairly warm along the lower eastern slopes/I-25 corridor.
243 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper heights will build steadily through Friday as mean upper trough over the northeast CONUS shifts east as deep low pressure system lifts into the Canadian maritime. The progression of the upper trough will allow upper ridging to translate eastward over the area during the next 24-36 hours. Southeast flow will then veer to south on Friday as a warm front lifts north into the area coincident with the building upper ridge.
High pressure continues to build across the region from the northwest as a cold front that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday continues to exit south of the region. A lingering post-frontal trough has allowed for fairly abundant cloud cover, but dry weather, to remain firmly in place across the region for much of the day. High pressure will prevail across the region on Friday with another pleasant mid-February day expected amid mostly clear skies. Low temperatures Friday night will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday night, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
140 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Cloudy skies will give way to partly cloudy conditions tonight as a warm front lifts across the region. The passage of this warm front will be followed by much warmer temperatures Friday afternoon. /canada longwave trof. Convergence along a wk warm front movg into the area tonight may also cause some low clouds to form. Likewise, only 5-10F diurnal temp falls tonight as waa associated with incoming warm front strengthens and considerable cloudiness conts. Temps will warm into the 50s Friday as skies clear behind the warm front and upr ridge axis moves into IN.
Warm 850-hPa temperatures and some mixing will allow temperatures to peak into the lower to mid 70s today.
246 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Latest water vapor shows a moisture starved upper low over northern Mexico this afternoon, which will eject northeast across western Texas and Oklahoma through Friday.
Currently, a warm front extended through the Dakotas into western IA with scattered to broken warm air advection mid/high clouds moving southeastward across the forecast area. Middle/upper level ridge of high pressure builds east over the Central CONUS today into Friday. Increasing compressional heating under this ridge, along with surface warm air advection and ample sunshine, will boost high temperatures well into the 30s/40s today and upper 40s to near 60 on Friday.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure centered over portions of Central Texas this morning. This is resulting in clear skies and cold temperatures across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Mid-South today through Friday resulting in rain free weather. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon and middle to upper 60s on Friday.
However, a strong inversion over the Gunnison valley is expected to prevent temperatures from reaching freezing again this afternoon. This activity fueled a by a stream of moisture extending westward to the base of deep trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific. On Friday, the trough over the eastern Pacific will dig to the southeast causing the moisture stream discussed above to lift over the area as a weak warm front.
A broad upper trough will bring cool and showery weather to the area today. Weak high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry weather Friday.
The deeply amplified ridge is pushing east across the Upper Midwest bringing an extremely warm airmass with it. The north to south oriented low level thermal gradient will gradually progress eastward through the entire short-term period, which is why western MN will see the warmer temps first. Model solutions remain consistent on upper level ridging being the main feature ahead.
Look for continued clear skies tonight with temperatures a little warmer than last night as weak upper ridging tries to move in with a southwest boundary layer flow.
Warmer over weekend with building heights. Expect the lower atmosphere to decouple providing light to calm winds tonight. Quiet weather to take hold as high pressure builds into the region.
After seasonable low temperatures tonight, it will be warmer Friday with temperatures climbing to well above normal. Upper level SW flow Friday night will advect moisture into the area and clouds will start to increase ahead of a closed low tracking across OK/AR/TX.
Light and variable flow will gradually become more southeasterly through the period as high pressure shifts further east of the region.
In a warm air advection regime with enhanced mixing, went above guidance, with highs into the mid 50s from east central SD through the IA Great Lakes area, to the lower to mid 60s over south central SD and the Missouri river corridor. As a result temperatures will still fall into the lower to mid 30s overnight.
The inversion has weakened overnight, but remains in the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin where temperatures remain in the upper 20s to around 32F. A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect for those areas this morning. For the remainder of SE Oregon and SW Idaho, the precipitation will be mainly directed at the higher elevations to the north of the Treasure/Western Magic Valleys where the amounts will be greatest. A weak cold front will swing through the area late this afternoon through early this evening. A short wave ridge will move in late tonight and remain across much of the area through Friday.
/issued 901 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017/ Some lingering clouds associated with a cold front that is now located over southern Florida are still being reported from Tampa Bay southward. Winds and seas will continue to subside Friday as high pressure builds into the area.
A piece of the upper trough from the system that affected the area this weekend has now developed into a cut-off low over Mexico. Even with this system being in close vicinity, and moving directly overhead tonight, low level moisture has been scoured out by a recent cold front. Even warmer conditions will be had Friday under mid level subsidence as the upper low pulls away from our region.
Warmer over weekend with building heights. Snow will taper off around 17-18Z as upper energy creeps off to the east, to be replaced by tranquil but cold weather with much of the northern mountains struggling to reach freezing by afternoon. Expect low temperatures tonight to moderate slightly from last night, but still chilly with 20s-30s across the lowlands and 10s in the high terrain. Quiet weather to take hold as high pressure builds into the region.
300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather map across much of the Plains and Midwest this afternoon. However, a weak warm front continues to move through the region this afternoon, and southerly winds usher in warmer temperatures. The warm temperatures are part of a longer warming trend, and tonights lows will remain above freezing for Central Illinois.
Dry northwesterly flow will persist through the period across the entire region, as the upper level trough axis responsible for yesterday's cold front moves off of the east coast today.
For tonight, because of the slow northeast track, it will take a bit of time to set up the ridge to valley temperatures split tonight with that in mind. As the mentioned warm front associated with the wave tracking across the Great Lakes lifts northeast, expect skies to clear out for Friday along with some well above normal temperatures as highs tomorrow will soar to around 60 degrees for highs. The clear skies heading into Friday night will allow for a few valley to ridge differences but the stronger southwest flow ahead of the next system will continue to limit this a bit.
206 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Intense low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will slowly drift towards Newfoundland by Friday morning.
While roads remain slick in some shady/untreated spots, it seems as though the main threats from freezing rain have, for the most part, ended across NW MT. Through 16/1600Z, KMSO and KGPI may experience occasional freezing rain and lowered visibility. Considering that this airmass is relatively warm, trapped cold air in valleys across northwest Montana will be favorable for patches of freezing rain to exist through late this morning.
Northwest low level flow will gradually weaken overnight as high pressure builds toward the FL panhandle. Forecast low temperatures will be cool and drop into the lower to mid 40s across inland areas except slightly warmer around 50 along the Martin county coast. Highs will be near normal for mid February in the lower 70s far nrn areas to the mid 70s central/south. Progressive pattern over the CONUS as an upper low over the Ark/La/Tex area early Sat will eject across the Lower MS valley and then OH valley Sat night.
Dry with warmer conditions through Friday. A strong Pacific storm system will bring a very good chance of valley rain, mountain snow, cooler temperatures and gusty winds this weekend.
300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Tonight will see light winds again as a weak trough of low pressure drifts into the area. This will lead into a very warm Friday as this trough of low pressure/cool front moves through.
305 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 A large upper level low covering the Eastern Seaboard today will push offshore tonight.
1054 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper level ridging will be invoked over the Ozarks today as strong cyclonic flow persists over the northeastern United States and upper level low pressure slowly approaches southern Texas. Brisk and gusty southwest winds will develop at the surface with strong warm air advection commencing in the low levels of the atmosphere. We went on the high side of temperature guidance today with highs warming into the middle to upper 60s. We have therefore again gone warm with temperatures with lows ranging from the upper 30s over the eastern Ozarks to the lower and middle 40s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
Issued at 1130 CST Thu Feb 16 2017 A seasonable and pleasant day is in store as high pressure continues to build into the region. The upper low over northern Mexico will move to the northeast, reaching central Texas by Friday morning. The upper ridge will amplify and push eastward and into the TN Valley by Friday afternoon. The warming trend will continue through the day and forecast highs will reach into the low to mid 60s Friday afternoon.
1237 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure will build across the southeastern states today through Friday.
/issued 451 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/ Clear skies and near calm conditions observed this morning as high pressure at the surface is firmly in place just to our southwest. These readings may dip another degree or two by sunrise with many locations near or below freezing and some patchy frost, especially along and north of the I-30 corridor. Mid and high level clouds will also be increasing, especially after midnight as southwest flow aloft becomes increasingly influential with an advancing upper trough and closed low lifting north from Mexico across TX and the western Gulf coast. Despite the increased cloud cover and potential for rain, temperatures will run a few degrees warmer on Friday as southerly flow increases so expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A closed upper low over Mexico will lift northeast across our area tonight and early Friday. With the increase in cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer tonight, with overnight lows in the lower and middle 40s.
259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Holy Spring, Batman! It's gorgeous out there today and tomorrow is going to be even warmer.
A weak coastal low will develop along the lower Texas coast Fri morning and move northeast Fri afternoon bringing drier air into the western portions of the CWA Fri afternoon and the eastern portions of the CWA Fri evening bringing an end to rain chances from west to east.
234 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure will build across the southeastern states today through Friday.
Dry and mild conditions will continue today as high pressure peaks over the region.
Today will be much warmer as upper-level ridging builds into the Plains. A southern stream upper low currently moving from the Gulf of California into Sonora/Sinaloa this morning will continue to slowly drift northeast across Chihuahua and southwest Texas and toward Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon.
1110 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Low pressure will move across Nova Scotia today and into the Gulf of St Lawrence tonight.
307 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Skies will begin to clear Friday as low pressure moves northeastward.
The area will be directly under the ridge axis by late this afternoon.
121 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 A large upper level low covering the Eastern Seaboard today will push offshore tonight.
1258 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Weak high pressure will briefly build into the area today. A warm front will lift through the region tonight into Friday, marking the beginning of very warm temperatures through the forecast period.
However, continued southwest flow at the surface couple with a upper level ridge axis building directly over the region should still allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
314 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Low pressure continues to pinwheel away from New Hampshire and western Maine tonight. Some lingering mountain snow showers will be possible overnight and into Friday before high pressure builds into the region to start the weekend.
A weak cold front will push through the area tonight, as an upper trof moves through. Temps will be a bit cooler, but still expect highs above seasonal average.
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 At H5 Closed low over Northeast CONUS. Upper ridge has shifted east covering the western half of the CONUS and extending northeast to the Hudson Bay. Closed low off Pacific Northwest. Upper ridge with very warm air has moved east over all of western nebraska. Mostly sunny skies today with west to northwest down slope flow will have temperatures climbing into the low 70s over most areas. Southwest flow tonight will keep boundary layer mixed and hold temperatures in the lower 30s. High pressure due to high amplitude ridge across the western US will result in dry and warm conditions through the weekend.
Upper ridge axis will move across the area today resulting in very warm and dry conditions. Cold front associated with the northern system will move across the local area Friday afternoon accompanied by breezy north winds, however temperatures will only be slightly cooler.
Upper ridge now pushing to our east and Pacific moisture streams into the state this afternoon, mainly in the form of high clouds. Low pressure moves across Sask Friday that should allow for some mixing and more uniform temps.
The main moisture surge has dropped south into California leaving the Pacific Northwest under the influence of a weakening upper level trough entering the region. Freezing level have lowered down to 5000 to 6000 feet so will continue to see some runoff out of the mountains today but then it drops to around 3000 feet overnight which will stop the melt.
1030 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper ridge axis will move across the area today resulting in very warm and dry conditions. Cold front associated with the northern system will move across the local area Friday afternoon accompanied by breezy north winds, however temperatures will only be slightly cooler.
122 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Low pressure departing eastward from the Canadian Maritimes will result in decreasing snow shower and flurry activity across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening with partial clearing. Slow-moving, deep low pressure across Nova Scotia is gradually losing its influence on North Country weather conditions this afternoon. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected, but northwesterly upslope for may allow 1-2" for the higher summits through this evening. With the low-mid level drying from the north, and per visible imagery, should see some sunny breaks thru the next several hours, especially across nrn NY into wrn VT. Generally looking for overnight low temperatures in the low-mid teens. Will see a narrow ridge of high pressure building across the region from west to east Friday into Friday night, with generally dry weather conditions.
/issued 312 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/ An upper level low pressure system, currently edging east-southeast along the west coast of Mexico near Los Mochis, will punch northeast later today all the way to near Fort Davis, Texas. The upper low is fairly vigorous, as apparent by the tight spin and ongoing thunder activity over northwest Mexico at this time. RMcQueen The upper low currently over the Gulf of California will push east of the FA by later tomorrow. This low will bring with it a weak front.
An upper level ridge over the region today will bring abnormally warm temperatures to the area. An area of low pressure and upper level trough will cross the region on Friday and Friday night.
Friday will be cooler as the front moves eastward across the area midday, with more widespread breezy northwest winds across the forecast area in the post frontal environment.
317 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 18Z surface data has a warm front running from southwest Minnesota into west central Illinois.
An upper ridge axis extends from southern California northeast into central Canada. Unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures remain under this ridge with forecast afternoon 850mb temps around +14C.
250 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 A plume of high cirrus has been streaming southeastward over the area today within the broad 1000-700 mb warm advection regime on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge building across the plains. As the ridge axis progresses into the area on Friday, model soundings indicate less cloud cover, while 925 mb temps rise to 11-14C by late in the day. Upstream obs south of a warm frontal boundary this afternoon across southern Iowa, more indicative of our air mass for tomorrow, are in the 50s to low 60s as of 20Z.