Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After the front passes tonight a slightly cooler and drier air mass will settle in across central NY and NE PA. 500 mb ridge axis will be across our area by 12Z Wednesday and will shift east by afternoon.
509 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The regional weather pattern will continue to be influenced by the north central Gulf high pressure cell. Although overall column moisture is relatively lower than in previous days (moisture ridge focused over the Rio Grande River Valley). Today will be somewhat of a transition day from a string of dry days to a string of consecutively wet days as the upper low/trough over the Desert Southwest/Northwest Mexico slowly advances east into the New Mexico/Trans Pecos region by tomorrow afternoon. The entire 'event' will be solely dependent upon the eastern movement of this aforementioned upper low/trough. With the upper low nestled in over south central state.
Have mainly persistence forecast temperatures with highs in the lower 90s west to the mid and upper 80s east.
Wrap-around moisture associated with the low pressure system over the Montana/Saskatchewan border is still a threat across the northeastern zones later tonight. Cold front has now slowed and is currently just north of Helena. and the upper level low pushes across NE MT late this afternoon through this evening. By Tuesday morning the upper low pushes into ND. high pressure begins to build across the region. Ridge of high pressure will build back across the region for Wednesday. and warmer.
1046 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest Tuesday bringing warm and dry weather.
142 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure over the mid Mississippi valley will shift northeast to the Ohio Valley Tuesday before drifting to New England Wednesday.
Weak ridging is in place across the region at the surface and aloft this morning and will remain in place through the day.
/issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ Earlier upper air analysis showed the mid/upper level ridge a little weaker today with some height falls, as weak short wave, noted on water vapor imagery from southern Oklahoma to lower Texas, moves eastward. Upper level ridging looks to be stronger again on Tuesday as short wave exits the region. By mid week, northern stream trough will deepen some and help push an upper level low to the east and begin to weaken upper level ridge.
Surface dewpoints remain in the low to mid 60s early this morning across the region. Instability will perk up a bit this afternoon with highs climbing back into the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points maintaining in the low to mid 60s.
605 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front will move into the region today.
407 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
138 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will be centered over the region through Tuesday, with dry conditions and warm temperatures.
Still looks like high pressure will keep low levels pretty dry over the Mid-State today and tonight, although can't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms over the extreme west this afternoon and evening.
Some of the high res short term models are hinting and possibly more than 20 percent coverage but just do not have any large focus mechanisms moving across Central Alabama to justify more than that.
A low pressure system will begin to approach the area Wednesday afternoon.
This will slow the cold front's eastward progression into Wisconsin, and as the atmosphere destabilizes again, a regeneration of showers and thunderstorms from south central Minnesota to western and northern Wisconsin is expected.
SPC mesoanalysis shows this plume and 850 mb moisture transport shifting eastward as the low level veers through the early morning hours. The central High Plains will be under cyclonic flow between a strong upper low over the northern Plains and an upper level trough axis moving slowly out of the Desert Southwest. By tonight the northern Plains low will lift northeast into Quebec while the southwestern trough continues to slowly move into the southern Plains. The upper trough over the southern Plains on Wednesday will slowly meander east and southeast through Texas.
At the same time a secondary cold front will be sliding W-E across the CWA this afternoon.
226 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front passes early this morning.
Izzi 242 PM CDT More significant trough and associated cold front will move across the region Wednesday bringing, potentially bringing a more substantial threat of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
The upper low will slowly drift south of the Arizona border by this afternoon.
330 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridging will move slowly east across western Washington today bringing mainly clear skies and another warm day.
Temperatures will warm to the low 90s inland and mid 80s along the coast.
High pressure will remain in control across central Indiana through Tuesday night.
Above normal temps continue thru the period and even bumped slightly warmer than guidance today given how warm we verified yesterday. expect many areas back in the low 90s. North and Central GA continue under a weak ridge until the end of the week with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
The upper level low has shifted off to the northeast. Additionally, temps will be cool across the area, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and dry air point to much cooler night, but developing upper level ridge of high pressure will limit cool off somewhat, with low in the 30s and 40s across the region tonight. Dry conditions will continue for Wednesday as ridge axis moves over the region. Eastern zones will be cooler.
610 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region today.
Mid and upper level troughing over the southeastern U.
317 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Plenty of low level moisture combined with several boundaries, including a cold front, instability and turning of winds with height will set the stage for more shower and thunderstorm development today and tonight.
and Wednesday a cold front with little vertical extent was moving south across the forecast area during the overnight hours. showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely tonight across the entire area as a warm front lifts north across wisconsin. showers and thunderstorms may continue through midday wednesday until a cold front arrives during the afternoon.
High pressure is building into the western US today, so today will mark the start of a warming trend.
We will remain under the influence of a broad upper ridge for the short term period.
537 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
312 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
337 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Main concern is heavy rainfall potential today and tonight as the surface cold front drops southeast across the area. The effective cold front is likely to lag and be situated across central Kansas by early afternoon and will become another focus for convection.
503 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The regional weather pattern will continue to be influenced by the north central Gulf high pressure cell. Although overall column moisture is relatively lower than in previous days (moisture ridge focused over the Rio Grande River Valley). Today will be somewhat of a transition day from a string of dry days to a string of consecutively wet days as the upper low/trough over the Desert Southwest/Northwest Mexico slowly advances east into the New Mexico/Trans Pecos region by tomorrow afternoon. The entire 'event' will be solely dependent upon the eastern movement of this aforementioned upper low/trough. With the upper low nestled in over south central state.
Strong high pressure aloft along the west coast will shift east across the Great Basin through midweek. This high pressure will strengthen across region late in the week.
407 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front moves across the area this morning and then washes out just to the south.
308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone across the northern Plains. as the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Thunderstorm chances will remain on the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level shear axis linger across the forecast area. As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states.
408 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The area remains under the influence of an upper level trough, which can be identified on latest water vapor satellite imagery extending across the state and into the southwest coastal waters. And just like in the previous couple of days, the sea breeze boundaries will again act as focal points for convection to develop, while the influence of the upper trough may enhance overall atmospheric instability.
320 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
Temperatures will be warmer today and Wednesday as a strong upper ridge along the west coast slides into our area. The highest temperatures will be around 80F today and near 90F Wednesday, including the Treasure Valley.
Any convection associated with the approaching cold front from the west should be delayed on its arrival into our forecast area until tonight. It will drag an assoc cold front thru the region on Wed. Precip coverage should begin increasing across NE MO prior to 12Z as the cold front approaches.
Surface analysis is a little messy with the outflow boundaries from the storms, but it appears that the cold front is located somewhere in the eastern part of the forecast area. The high should bring clearing skies starting this afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.
Temperatures will be above normal with daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s and overnight lows around 70.
201 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
Another area to watch will be in central South Dakota where the main wave might allow isolated development along a weak trough but at this time it looks to remain capped so will not include any low end chance. The only spot where clouds could be a bit more extensive will be along the highway 14 corridor. By Wednesday night high pressure will settle in a winds will become fairly light.
331 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The short term period will feature quiet weather and warm temperatures as high pressure takes hold of the region. High pressure shifts off to the northeast, allowing for shower chances to return by Wednesday afternoon. These showers will likely be contained to the higher terrain along the VA/KY border. Morning lows will feature ridge valley splits with valleys potentially dipping into the uppers 50s while ridges stay in the 60s. With high pressure taking hold of the area, skies will remain clear.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will persist over Western US through most of the forecast period. The upper level ridge will flatten on Wednesday, and that may lead to development of an isolated shower or two over the interior mountains, mainly east of the forecast area.
333 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 An upper level low currently moving east/southeast across eastern Montana will continue to slide across the Northern Plains today dragging a trough axis through the Central Plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered over southeast North Dakota with a trailing cold front extending south from the low across eastern South Dakota and into central Nebraska. Will continue to carry chances along the cold front as it pushes eastward through the CWA today and into this evening.
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with a few isolated showers. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday.
333 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A significant warming trend will take place over the region through the end of the work week as high pressure builds over Central California. High pressure continues to nudge slowly east over Central California, resulting in a warming trend. As of 2:00 AM, temperatures across the region were running between 2 and 7 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. High pressure will continue to build over the region today with most San Joaquin Valley locations forecast to warm to the century mark, the first time this year. The high res ARW and NMM indicate scattered showers along the Sierra Nevada between 21z and 03z. Little change in the weather pattern through the end of the work week, as high pressure builds over the region.
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 An upper trough over the SE Conus Atlantic seaboard fills a bit, as Bonnie weakens over the Carolinas.
441 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Cooler temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday are expected today across the Central High Plains region in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region overnight. The main upper trough axis in the split flow aloft over the U. moves east across the Central High Plains region this evening with ridging over the southwest U.
541 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday.
Latest SPC HRRR continues to show little convection during the overnight period so have lowered pops into the low chance category primarily from CAE eastward. Weak upper troughing is also indicated.
1242 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Temperatures warmed into the low 80s for most locations across the northland today. East to northeast winds will increase overnight into Tuesday across Northeast MN and western Lake superior as an area of low pressure advances from the Dakotas. The gusty onshore flow will keeping temperatures much cooler near lake superior tomorrow. Tuesday will also bring cooler temperatures. An upper level low pressure system will continue to affect the Northland early in the period. A strong cold front will push eastward across the region Tuesday Night, bringing numerous thunderstorms to the eastern portion of the CWA during the evening. A dry slot will then work into the western portion of the CWA, with cooler air pushing in as low pressure moves along the International Border region.
The upper level low is forecast to move into northern Sonora state of Mexico today and across northern Chihuahua state of Mexico on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front approaches from the north.
Strong high pressure aloft will be the main feature through the week.
The CWA is currently under weak upper level ridge influences from high pressure thats centered over Mexico. Separate troughs are located over the northern Rockies and Desert Southwest. Also of note in those soundings are a repeat of an inverted-v in the lower levels and wetbulb height of around 11kft. For actual rain chance forecast, 2/3's of the area have around 30% while the far western zones are closer to 20 as those locations are closer to the ridge and subjected to more subsidence. Above normal temperatures will persist with highs in the lower 90s. Movement of the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will aide in "shielding" the CWA from convection being able to initiate, at least not widespread enough to even have any mention of rain in the forecast except possibly on the outer fridge of the forecast area.
122 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front moving east of Vermont late this evening is ushering in a cooler and drier air mass, along with mostly clear skies.
Storms now beginning to develop across western and central portions of the state in association with a cold front. The low pressure system will swing northward late tonight with some precipitation on the back side of it possibly affecting the northwestern CWA Tuesday afternoon. The upper low is expected to continue to pull out of the region on Wednesday. The trend of the western CONUS ridge rebounding through the period looks good. This will leave most of the region under northwest flow, with warmest temps in the west, trending cooler east.
Any surface boundary/effective cold front is expected to only make slow southward progress due to relatively weak and nearly boundary- parallel flow aloft.
336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through the weekend.
Cooler readings will occur in the west with more extensive clouds through the day along with cooler air arriving behind the boundary by this afternoon.
This trend will continue through Wed into Wed night as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW.
An upper level ridge will persist over the Pacific Northwest today, bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temps to southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. Another upper ridge builds over the region at the end of the week.
228 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest today with warm and dry weather.
312 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Rainshowers with embedded non-severe thunderstorms along with much cooler temperatures highlights the short term period. The latest water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low circulating over Jordan, Montana. Much cooler with highs in the mid 50s west to mid 60s James River Valley.
After the front passes tonight a slightly cooler and drier air mass will settle in across central NY and NE PA. High pressure aloft and at the surface will return to central NY and northeast PA Tues night through Thurs afternoon which will result in quiet and cool spring weather back to the region.
GFS surface dew points increase into the lower to mid 60s, but will use the drier MOS dewpoints that remain in the upper 50s for the most part. GFS precipitation increases through the day, and especially tonight as the surface cold front approaches.
This activity was part of a much larger area of convection which formed along the Northern/Central Plains cold front. The cold front will also be a likely focus for new storms this afternoon. This feature will be slow to move into the CWA as it awaits the arrival of a fairly strong upper trough currently rotating southeast into the Northern High Plains. Convection will end from northwest to southeast but be rather slow in doing so owing to the slow eastward progression of the cold front.
/issued 519 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016/ Water vapor imagery continues to indicate an upper level trough across the Florida peninsula and adjacent waters and extends south of Cuba. the short term guidance is very similar to yesterdays in that it suggests that the persistent upper level trough could induce a weak low level trough early Tuesday morning.
305 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with a few isolated showers. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday.
Better chances for precip will come by mid week as a cold front approaches from the Plains state.
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens. Clear skies over interior NorCal as high pressure moves overhead. Strong high pressure over the region with little to no delta influence will continue warming temperatures today with many valley locales topping out around the century mark.
349 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will once again favor the higher terrain with little forcing or moisture available to push them into the lower valleys. Some residual moisture and energy with the exiting southern trough will keep some convective activity over the southern San Juans on Wednesday.
The short term period will feature quiet weather and warm temperatures as high pressure takes hold of the region. High pressure shifts off to the northeast, allowing for shower chances to return by Wednesday afternoon. These showers will likely be contained to the higher terrain along the VA/KY border. Morning lows will feature ridge valley splits with valleys potentially dipping into the uppers 50s while ridges stay in the 60s. For the longwave pattern, the models all have southeast ridging weakening in the face of a broad trough sliding east through Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley for the weekend.
a large area of hot high pressure exists over the Desert Southwest and Four Corners with an upper ridge extending north along the pacific Coast into British Columbia. Rain showers are currently moving cyclonically across the north and west sides of this low. This low will move east into North Dakota this morning and bring its back side showers east across the forecast area with it. This low will move far enough to the east this afternoon that the showers will diminish across the western zones this afternoon. The upper ridge builds into Montana on Wednesday with dry weather and warmer temperatures. The upper ridge remains over Montana Wednesday Night with dry weather.
Low level troughs and spokes of weak positive vorticity advection will rotate around the low and southward across the area. and when this forcing interacts with the low level trough additional convection is expected across inland areas during the afternoon and evening hours. Weak NW steering flow expected today then a weaker steering flow Wed as ridging across south Florida edges northward. Advertised rain chances of around 20% each morning across SE Ga as low level troughs rotate southward. Temperatures will trend above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland/upper 80s coast with minimum temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will provide the area with dry weather through Thursday along with daytime temperatures running slightly above normal.
RISING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPARK ISOLATED/LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SETS UP TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE WEST. COLDER AIR DEPOSITED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AGAIN TODAY. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TONIGHT REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
These storms have developed in an area of isentropic upglide north of a returning surface warm front. Not to be forgotten, we will continue to monitor the threat for patchy dense fog ahead of that returning warm front. As we get into late this afternoon and tonight, a short wave trough will shift east across the central Plains and will drive a cold front through the Ozarks. Surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s in conjunction with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s will result in MLCAPEs in the 2000-3000 J/kg range.
A fairly stationary warm front has setup from extreme western kentucky east-southeast into the Crossville and Jamestown areas in northern Tennessee. Models do show another meso-low developing later this afternoon over extreme western kentucky upstream of the area and along the warm front. Meanwhile a ridge will build across the CWA today.
YET GUIDANCE IS BENT ON A COOLER DAY IN THE MID 80S. WE HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER TEMPS. FARTHER SOUTH AT PEASON RIDGE INTO ALEXANDRIA HAS SCT TO OVC LOW DECKS AROUND 2. THE STORM TRACK IS LIFTING NORTH AND THE COMING COLD FRONT IS NOW BACK TO EARLIER DURING LATE THURSDAY WHICH WILL HOLD ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDE SPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH OR TWO IN THE WPC 1-3 DAY QPF.
Most of the lower clouds to mix out or lift to VFR levels this afternoon before returning tonight. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE SNUG WITH LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE COMBINING WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES OUT WEST PRODUCING A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERLIES BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOWER THE WINDS.