Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Wednesday) Main focus remains on a rather high amplitude upper cutoff low that is progged to sling a translated sfc occluded/cold front across the area primarily this evening into the early morning hours. Aloft we mainly transition to zonal flow though will be a cooler day with many areas in the north only making it to the mid 60s.
While a much more dynamic trough crosses the area, an upper low splits off it and looks to dive south before coming across our area, bringing most of the moisture and ascent with it.
220 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Weak s/w ridging will form over the forecast area for tonight and Wednesday, leading to dry and seasonal conditions for that time period. Clouds will be on the increase late Wed/Wed night as upper trof exits the Rockies and moves towards the Central Plains. The majority of this period should remain rather quiet as our region is progged to remain under the influence of a fairly progressive pattern with low amplitude ridging late in the week through the upcoming weekend followed by more or less zonal flow until we get to the end of the period. The region may then begin to see some changes as an upper trough enters the US Pacific NW and Western Canada.
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (Today and tonight) In the wake of the departing upper low, pleasant weather is expected for our area today, followed by a cool night tonight. The upper low was tracking along the Red River Valley during the post-Midnight hours, and will lift northeast into southeastern Missouri by late this afternoon. Ample sunshine will allow temperatures to reach the lower to mid 70s for highs across our area this afternoon.
WV imagery indicates a compact closed upper low transitioning east through the Ark-La-Tex Region while a zonal flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is building in across the Colorado Rockies. High pressure will prevail over the greater region today. For tonight, the high pressure will continue over the greater region. On Wednesday, a large upper level trof will being to carve out across the northern Rockies.
Temperatures will be hanging right around freezing or just above, which could limit snow and give more rain south of Blackfoot. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler north of Blackfoot, which would lend themselves towards snow more than rain. Most of the snow, aside from some light showers in the higher elevations of the eastern highlands comes to an end shortly after midnight. The highest snow totals will generally be 4-6 inches in the Sawtooths, Big Holes, and Bear River Range with the rest of the mountains seeing 2-4 inches.
Currently, weak high pressure is situated over the forecast area. With high pressure over the area, expect winds to diminish this evening and think we could see temperatures drop pretty quick over the snowpack. We did go ahead and blend the cooler previous guidance with our given NBM guidance to lean a bit toward cooler temperatures over the snowpack. Wednesday looks to bring a mix of sun and clouds with slightly warmer temperatures most areas.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Weakening high pressure over the eastern US continues to support dry and stable NErly flow over the area while at the mid-lvls an H5 ridge positioned just west of the area supports a regime of dynamic subsidence. Given the mostly clear skies and light winds can't rule out some patchy fog over the interior, but limited low-lvl moisture (as evidenced by crossover temperatures in the low 60s) precludes me from putting in the forecast at this time. The aforementioned high will lose its influence on Wednesday as an area of low pressure with its associated fronts moves through the eastern US.
The higher elevations of northwest Arkansas will have continue to have breezy conditions into at least part of the night.
High pressure will settle over the region Wednesday with near normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected.
252 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 18Z surface data has strong low pressure just east of KFAM. The main cold front ran from eastern Lake Superior south southwest to the low. After sunset, the back edge of the rain shield will slowly move east as the low moves up into the Ohio Valley. A closed upper low is expected to slowly lumber east through the weekend.
401 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Rain is expected late tonight and continuing through Wednesday as low pressure cross the area.
118 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Widespread rain showers with pockets of heavy downpours are currently encompassing the western and central portions of Upper Michigan early this morning as a cold front continues its track across the area. Cold front inching its way eastward tonight at 0z Wednesday, coupled with increasing dynamics/fgen as a low further south lifts toward the Ohio River Valley will result in increasing shower activity across the eastern UP. Behind this over the west, the cooler air will build into the region, resulting in a dry and cooler night then the past couple. Expect the cooler and dry airmass to push east through the day Wednesday as high pressure begins to settle overhead.
Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler today where there is a snowpack and somewhat with the clouds. TFJ Storm has exited to the east with high pressure moving over eastern Montana. The remainder of the week will see slowly warming temperatures and dry weather as an upper low drops across the Pacific Northwest and digs toward the southern Plains. By the end of the week a flat ridge will push into Montana, with temperatures jumping above normal for the weekend.
On Wednesday, a large upper level trof will being to carve out across the northern Rockies.
Increasing clouds tomorrow night as a weak wave approaches will help keep temps above freezing in the southern half of the area for lows Wednesday night.
306 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the southern plains which is embedded in a deep trough over the plains. The closed low heads northeast into the Ohio Valley by 12z Wed while the trough axis heads east towards the upper Great Lakes. Cold front inching its way eastward tonight at 0z Wednesday, coupled with increasing dynamics/fgen as a low further south lifts toward the Ohio River Valley will result in increasing shower activity across the eastern UP. Behind this over the west, the cooler air will build into the region, resulting in a dry and cooler night then the past couple. Expect the cooler and dry airmass to push east through the day Wednesday as high pressure begins to settle overhead.
1122 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure well northeast of the region, with a warm front to the northwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough moving into the upper midwest, with near zonal flow from the northern high Plains to the Pacific NW.
Mild conditions and sunny skies prevail across the area today with the trof just east of here losing its influence on the mid- Missouri River Valley as the southern mid-level vort max streaks northeast, rounding the dominant/deeper low just north of Minnesota. Winds, breezy at times today, will slow and turn variable overnight with the passing of the high pressure axis pushing through the area. Temps will slip towards the low end of guidance. Have added slight POPs for Wednesday afternoon and evening with the approach of a lee trof on the plains of Colorado.
The first is the low riding along a baroclinic zone that brings us rain tonight into Wednesday.
Winds will slowly turn to the south as low pressure develops to the southeast. The better chances would be in south central SD as the low level air mass is still very dry and will take some time to saturate.
151 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Clouds will thicken today, before showers move in tonight ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest.
A tight, nearly stacked low pressure system will continue to barrel northeastward over our northwestern counties tonight. Thus, the path of the low center (i. High surface pressure and broad ridging aloft will ensure another dry period through much of the week. A nearly cut-off low is forecast to move out of TX over the weekend as it re-engages with the synoptic flow. Low pressure will move northeast into the Ohio Valley tonight. As the low departs on Wednesday, a clearing trend to VFR is expected from west to east throughout the day.
(The rest of tonight) Overall, it looks like a quiet night across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with cooler and drier in place in the wake of the upper low now in the mid-Mississippi Valley region.
619 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler and drier conditions along with clear skies will prevail in the wake of last night's frontal passage in the immediate term. As such, have generally sided with the lower end of guidance for lows tonight with most inland locations seeing the 40s to near 50. Further eastward motion of high pressure will being about a further shift towards onshore winds overnight tomorrow, though increases in low temperature will only be marginal at first with values around 2-4 degrees higher than this evening's.
Cronce (Issued 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low pressure will slightly deepen as it moves from se MO into srn IL late this afternoon. Afterward, the low will slightly fill and become more broad as a weak occlusion occurs. The broad low will be located over ern Lower MI by 12Z Wed, with the upper low along the IN and Ohio border. Large scale subsidence will clear the skies for Wed and temps will rebound into the lower to middle 50s. High pressure and cool temps then expected for Wed nt.
Current model analysis indicate the cold front pushing east out of our CWA as a cooler airmass will begin to filter over our forecast area. Otherwise, mid afternoon surface analysis had the cold front over our eastern Mississippi counties. This cold front will shift east during the next hour or two and cooler and much drier air will filter into our CWA. This cooler airmass will lead to cooler than normal morning lows Wednesday in the 40s. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over southern Missouri. This closed low will track east northeast tonight and over the Ohio valley by Wednesday morning. This will allow our winds aloft to become near zonal Wednesday as surface ridging shifts east over our CWA.
This will help to advect in a cooler air mass over the course of the overnight hours, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s in most locations by early Wednesday morning. However, winds should just stay high enough to support some mixing of the low-levels and keep fog at bay.
616 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 A low pressure system and stationary boundary over the Atlantic will contribute to patchy light rain or drizzle over the eastern half of PA through tonight. On Wednesday, a low pressure system approaching from the west will produce some rain showers.
934 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
A weak cold front will finally move through the area, bringing a possibility of a couple of showers. Expect dew points and temps to drop a couple of degrees following the cold front, but should still be around average.
915 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Rain is expected late tonight and continuing through Wednesday as low pressure cross the area.
Latest surface analysis shows low pressure near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers with a trailing cold front extending toward the N Central Gulf coast, while high pressure continues to build across TX. Between these features, gusty west to northwest winds continue to usher a cooler and drier airmass into the region.
Although there is meager moisture in the lower boundary layer, the lack of mesoscale and synoptic features that would bring about ascent continues to plague the region. The Key's overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Snow is expected to continue across the higher terrain overnight, gradually shifting south this evening. A cold front will also push across the plains overnight, with mid-level frontogenesis (and its accompanying lift) along with some weak upslope flow might be enough for a few rain and snow showers over the plains, though temperatures will likely be too warm to support any accumulation below 7000 feet. The flow aloft will shift more to the west-southwest ahead of an approaching trough, so most of the snow should be focused on the Park and Gore ranges early in the day.
609 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) The upper trough has passed to the east of the region and westerly upper winds are over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. An upper trough will dig southward on Wednesday night to around the Four Corners Region.
A weakening cold front currently positioned east of New Orleans will shift eastward towards the state, approaching the forecast area later in the day. An approaching/weakening cold front may bring ISOLD showers across the I-4 corridor in the afternoon, but confidence/coverage too low beyond VCSH at KLEE.
656 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Summary: Briefly cooler through mid-week, then a warming trend and mainly dry through the end of October. Today a reinforcing cold front is moving from west to east across the Upper Midwest resulting in just a few rain/snow showers and temperatures steady to falling behind the front. In the cooler post- frontal cyclonic flow, scattered rain/snow showers may also develop across the international border tonight into early Wednesday - perhaps even some "lake effect" showers downwind (east-southeast) of Lake of the Woods and Rainy Lake, but little to no accumulation is expected.
Weak s/w ridging will form over the forecast area for tonight and Wednesday, leading to dry and seasonal conditions for that time period. Clouds will be on the increase late Wed/Wed night as upper trof exits the Rockies and moves towards the Central Plains. The majority of this period should remain rather quiet as our region is progged to remain under the influence of a fairly progressive pattern with low amplitude ridging late in the week through the upcoming weekend followed by more or less zonal flow until we get to the end of the period. The region may then begin to see some changes as an upper trough enters the US Pacific NW and Western Canada.
A cold front will pass across the Pacific Northwest this evening, bringing a chance for more wetting rain to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties.
1038 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 A low pressure system and stationary boundary over the Atlantic will contribute to patchy light rain or drizzle over the eastern half of PA through tonight. On Wednesday, a low pressure system approaching from the west will produce some rain showers.
18Z surface data has strong low pressure just east of KFAM. The main cold front ran from eastern Lake Superior south southwest to the low. After sunset, the back edge of the rain shield will slowly move east as the low moves up into the Ohio Valley. A closed upper low is expected to slowly lumber east through the weekend.
743 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 A low pressure system and stationary boundary over the Atlantic will contribute to patchy light rain or drizzle over the eastern half of PA through tonight. On Wednesday, a low pressure system approaching from the west will produce some rain showers.
626 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Latest surface analysis shows low pressure near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers with a trailing cold front extending toward the N Central Gulf coast, while high pressure continues to build across TX. Between these features, gusty west to northwest winds continue to usher a cooler and drier airmass into the region.
A ridge will build in from the southwest late Wednesday evening, keeping the region dry while elevating temperatures back to near normal through the rest of the short term. Surface winds: W-NW 10 kt or less, increasing after 26/09z to 10-20 kt in southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho, then 15-25 kt across most of the area after 26/15z.
638 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance and cold front move through the area.
We will continue to monitor the situation, as additional cloud cover could make overnight lows warmer. Increasing clouds tomorrow night as a weak wave approaches will help keep temps above freezing in the southern half of the area for lows Wednesday night.
832 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the southern plains which is embedded in a deep trough over the plains. The closed low heads northeast into the Ohio Valley by 12z Wed while the trough axis heads east towards the upper Great Lakes. Key Messages: -Cold front and showers hanging around Wed. -Fog possible Thurs AM -High pressure, dry zonal flow thru weekend -Potential pattern break after Halloween The cold front continues its slow roll through the UP, and the slowing trend in the models continues. A secondary low along the frontal boundary will be passing northeast through the Lower Peninsula and far northern Lake Huron on Wednesday, which will serve to keep the pressure gradient tight in the east half of the UP and the eastern zones of Lake Superior Wednesday.
710 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Rain is expected late tonight and continuing through Wednesday as low pressure cross the area.
412 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 A tight, nearly stacked low pressure system will continue to barrel northeastward over our northwestern counties tonight. Thus, the path of the low center (i. High surface pressure and broad ridging aloft will ensure another dry period through much of the week. A nearly cut-off low is forecast to move out of TX over the weekend as it re-engages with the synoptic flow. As the center of a low pressure system moves across the northwestern tier of counties today/tonight, winds will eventually veer from southerly to northwesterly, remaining quite gusty at times over much of the region through the 24 hour TAF period.
929 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Rain is expected late tonight and continuing through Wednesday as low pressure cross the area.
625 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 The upper level trough that brought rain and cooler weather has moved east of our area and will leave near normal highs behind it.
Pockets of light rain and drizzle have wrapped around the backside of the low and we have maintained a decent low cloud deck amid cool temperatures and a west northwest wind. Low level moisture and convergence should mostly be clear of the region by daybreak as the storm system moves northeast setting us up for a mostly sunny day with a mostly northerly breeze as surface ridging builds in to the west. Expecting to maintain a bit of a gradient as the high passes to the north of the region overnight Thursday which will keep temperatures somewhat moderated, although they will be chilly. Thursday winds shift to the east as we move in between the ridging over the Great Lakes region and a developing trough/storm system over the central plains.
Heading towards the weekend, temperatures will hover in the low to mid-80s across the lower deserts. Residual ridging across Arizona will slowly become more of a progressive pattern ahead of the next digging trough across the western CONUS beginning on Wednesday. This trough will slow the general warming trend as 500mb heights fall through Wednesday. This troughing feature will dig into the panhandle of TX by Thursday night, with ridging building in behind this trough across AZ.
Post frontal dry air continues to move in this evening as overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 40s.
Drier and cooler air will be in place across the state through the short term period as sfc ridging builds across the Lower/Mid MS Valley.
357 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Showers will move through the area today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperature return with high pressure for Thursday and into the weekend. Noticeably cooler temperatures today thanks to the clouds, rain and cold air advection behind the front. A few showers may linger past sunset in WNW flow behind the front, but these will end during the evening as high pressure noses into the region from the western Lakes.
On Thursday, an upper level trough is forecast to dig across the Four Corners region, slowly meandering east across the southern plains towards the Mid-MS Valley through the weekend.
236 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A trough currently over Washington will track across Idaho and into Wyoming by this evening. However, there is enough lift and instability suggested in soundings for the high country of the Absarokas/Beartooths to pick up a quick 3-5 inches of snowfall late today through the evening. By Thursday morning the upper trough is progged to be cut off over southern Wyoming well to our south. We should see mostly sunny skies and temps a little warmer in the lower to mid 50s for most locations. High pressure aloft will begin to build into the inner Rockies.
308 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Low pressure will track to the Great Lakes today, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a few showers.
Winds will slowly turn to the south as low pressure develops to the southeast. The better chances would be in south central SD as the low level air mass is still very dry and will take some time to saturate. Wednesday night into Thursday the models continue to trend southward in cutting off the upper level low pressure. Thursday will see the low pressure begin to wrap up to the south with some backed flow and slightly enhanced forcing. By afternoon and evening the forcing will gradually weaken as the upper low drifts farther south and forcing and convergence weaken across the area.
256 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the next 24 hours, slowly shifting east into the Missouri Valley, by this afternoon and tonight. Expect temperatures near seasonal normals, with breezy conditions for central KS, as surface winds on the backside of the ridge slowly increase.
and Thursday Rain associated with the low pressure system in Lower MI shifted east of the region early this morning, leaving dry conditions over GRB CWA. Northwest winds will gust to 15 to 25 mph in most areas, with the highest gusts near Lake Michigan. High temperatures should be in the lower to middle 40s in north central WI, and upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. High pressure will bring clear to partly cloudy skies tonight and Thursday.
323 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Lingering showers east of I-55 will taper off early this morning, and will be replaced by clearing skies as high pressure moves into the area from the west.
Medium range models continue to indicate an upper level trough of low pressure dropping southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners Region early Thursday, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. In response, lee side cyclogenesis is projected across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front. Still, showers will be possible Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening as H5 vort maxima begin to eject northeast out of the trough axis dipping into New Mexico, interacting with the cold front pushing into western Kansas.
117 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 A low pressure system and stationary boundary over the Atlantic will contribute to patchy light rain or drizzle over the eastern half of PA through tonight. On Wednesday, a low pressure system approaching from the west will produce some rain showers.
242 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022 (Today through Thursday) Weakening high pressure over the eastern US will lose its influence on South Florida today as an area of low pressure with its associated fronts moves through the eastern US. The upper-lvl system will be fairly low amplitude so the cold front associated with it will likely stall and weaken prior to reaching our area.