Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For this reason, have limited precipitation probabilities to the high end of chance category during the afternoon and evening. Weak forcing for ascent may be present on the northern edge of an upper low that will drift slowly east-northeast into central Texas tomorrow afternoon. Similar thermodynamics Monday along with subtle height falls by evening from deepening Great Lakes trough should be enough to justify high chance probabilities once again. There is some questionon placement and degree of amplication of western of southwestern CONUS trough though and this could ultimately be further east/stronger leading to reduced chances.
15Z temps are in the mid 80s but will reach the low to mid 90s again today. JMS (Issued 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016) For 12Z TAFs: Upper level high pressure remains over the region today but at the surface a frontal boundary has stalled out and is located along and east of I-65. Have kept a VCTS in at both terminals from 19Z to 02Z due to the low confidence in the timing of storms and if they will move over either terminal.
a cold front associated with a closed low moving into Western Ontario was positioned from the Texas Panhandle through Central Kansas. the vort max over Texas is expected to weaken as it lifts northward underneath the dominate high pressure while the cold front slowly sags southeastward toward the CWA. however highs in the low to mid 90s should remain common. as these locations look to have the highest heat indices this afternoon. Will need to monitor conditions through the day for any adjustments to the advisory as less cloud cover than expected could allow for locations near the Oklahoma Kansas border to be warmer than forecast and approach/reach advisory criteria. the dominating ridge of high pressure that has remained over the Southern Plains for the past several days is forecast to retreat westward to the Desert Southwest.
A cold front extends south into Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states. Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario. The surface cold front will draw closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop ups west of I-75. High PWATs and freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so, will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers.
Expect thunderstorms to become more common along and east of the upper low axis, but also out west over the higher terrain where good heating is ongoing to fuel thunderstorm development within low level easterly upslope flow regime.
Strong high pressure remains over the area with southerly flow continuing warm advection across the region. Shower and thunderstorms chances return later tonight as a weak and slow moving cold front approaches and drags through the area.
1139 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night ahead of a cold front.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature for this week and into the July Fourth holiday weekend. The high center is expected to wobble around over the region from day to day, so areal coverage of showers and storms as well as storm motion may vary from day to day.
715 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast today and tonight, and will slide off the coast on Monday.
An upper ridge will build as it moves across the region, bringing sunny warmer weather to Western Washington today and Monday.
Winds throughout the atmosphere remain light with a peak wind speed of just 19 knots as the ridge of high pressure persists over the region. Since yesterday morning, dewpoints in the low levels have increased by 1 to 2 degrees and the precipitable water value has increased to almost 1. /issued 322 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ Upper level ridge remains in place across the southern gulf states from Texas to Florida. Subsidence from this ridge has kept the area dry for several days but it will begin to weaken slightly today as upper trough tracks across southern Canada, extending south across the upper Mississippi Valley.
742 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure will bring one more dry day before a frontal system enters the region Monday. High pressure will return by midweek. High pressure will bring one more dry warm day after the some local fog patches burn off following sunrise.
1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight into Monday. High pressure and a drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the region through mid week. Southerly flow will allow for temperatures to climb into the lower 90s today. Issued a special weather statement for the high heat index values. Weak short wave energy will continue to work its way east across our area tonight as an associated weak cold front sags down across the region later tonight into Monday. Highs on Monday will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Northwest California will persist this week as a ridge of high pressure remains over the western United States. The pattern will feature an upper level ridge of high pressure that will continue to build over the west coast through mid weak resulting in rising heights and warming temperatures across the interior.
/ISSUED / Upper air analysis shows upper low between Del Rio and Midland TX and upper level ridge over the Arklatex. Surface analysis at 08Z showed weak high pressure over much of SE Texas allowing for near calm winds. Today the upper level low should meander across west Texas with the upper ridge slowly weakening over the Arklatex as ridging builds over the 4 corners region. Ascent from the upper low and subsidence from the ridge will again fight it out over much of SE and E Texas today.
Front continues to be active with several thunderstorm complexes along it but the boundary itself is making slow progress against the weakened, but persistent, upper ridge. The overall pattern will begin to transition back to ridging over the Rockies and subsequent downstream troffing starting Sunday night and into Monday. As such, the aforementioned cold front will move through the state on Monday with a subsequent increase in showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will stay breezy/gusty today as low pressure moves east across southern Canada. 850mb temps at 00Z this evening are actually a degree or two warmer than what they were at 00Z last evening, so highs will be fairly similar to yesterday, or even a tad warmer in some locations. Raised highs from previous forecast and sided towards the highest guidance members once again as it is largely too cool across the region. This will bring cooler temperatures on Monday with highs dropping down into the 70s to low 80s.
First, a tightly wound short wave trough is evident wrapping north and northeast over the Permian Basin. 26/15Z surface analysis reveals a weak surface boundary/trough within this same region of noticable convergence. However, given the strength of the trough, if it makes a decent northward push, scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop over western north Texas and far southwestern Oklahoma.
The PAH forecast area will continue to be under the influence of a mid level ridge today, meaning a warm, moist, unstable atmosphere. As mid level heights continue to fall tonight, and drier, cooler air wedges under the existing airmass, PoPs will peak at around 50% in the northern half of the PAH forecast area. The remainder of the short term will be dry and steadily cooler under northwesterly flow aloft.
928 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure remains in control through Monday.
Mostly fair and cooler weather will follow after Monday as Canadian high pressure builds in. The immediate effect will be some showers and thunderstorms today along a pre- frontal trough.
However flow aloft looks fairly weak with upper ridge building northward over the desert southwest. Its difficult to rule out an isolated severe threat entirely given the higher CAPE today. Highs today will be similar to a few degrees cooler than yesterday. with readings running cooler across the plains.
The complex was being aided by a short wave rounding the eastern edge of a large mid- level anticyclone centered over the lower Mississippi valley.
Building high pressure over the region will bring abundant sunshine over the next several days.
1015 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016 High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North Country through Sunday evening.
905 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A cold front will approach from the west overnight and move east of the area by morning. A weak area of high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley behind the cold front. A reinforcing cold front will move east across the area Monday night.
Surface wise, a sliver of a ridge is draped across our region, resulting in east to southeast winds of less than 10 knots except slightly higher on the Florida Straits. With our region lying on the southern periphery of a Deep Anticyclone centered over the Southeast United States, modest large scale subsidence will prevail.
The higher rainfall amounts are expected where cell training occurs along the aforementioned band of convection this morning. /issued 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low has pushed north of the Texas Big Bend region this morning and is now centered over western Crockett county. The upper level low will begin to weaken through the overnight hours with rain chances ending over the eastern half of the forecast area. Afternoon highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, generally around 90 degrees, given good cloud cover associated with the upper Level disturbance.
(Today thru Tue) Today's weather map will feature and upper high over the Arklatex with a ridge axis extending eastward across the mid Atlantic states. This is due to a weakening eastward moving trough. Tonight, the aforementioned upper high will shift westward across the 4 corners area.
The weak upper flow over the area continues between the upper high centered near the Lower MS River valley and upper low spinning off of New England.
Convection should be isolated today with little upper support seen but decent shear will be present with the low level southeasterly winds topped by westerly upper flow.
Temperatures are running a little warmer than expected and will push heat index values above 105 later this afternoon.
706 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure remains in control through Monday.
707 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure will bring one more dry day before a frontal system enters the region Monday. High pressure will return by midweek. High pressure will bring one more dry warm day after the some local fog patches burn off following sunrise.
Conditions will be similar Monday as the high becomes centered over central Utah.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the southwestern United States will result in very warm and dry conditions across inland portions of the San Francisco and Monterey Bay Areas through the middle of the week. Cooling is expected in all areas late in the week as a weak upper trough develops near the West Coast. A broad upper ridge centered near the four corners area extends west across California. This ridge is forecast to maintain its current position through midweek and also strengthen slightly over the next couple of days.
High pressure will remain over the region through at least mid week.
/issued 351 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Upper low continues to drift northward across the Big Bend Region, while moisture remains dense enough to allow streamer showers to pop up to the southeast across the Gulf.
1051 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Warm and dry under high pressure today. Cold front Monday.
Mostly fair and cooler weather will follow after Monday as Canadian high pressure builds in. The cold front will be crossing areas SE of Grand Rapids through the latter half of the day and we may manage a few stronger storms. The immediate effect will be some showers and thunderstorms today along a pre- frontal trough.
High pressure ridge continues to strengthen over the Great Basin region, allowing for temperatures to climb even further into the 90s today across much of Nevada.
This feature is being driven south-southwestward about the eastern periphery of a relatively strong upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest and west Texas across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge axis will slip southward by mid-week, with light west to southwest winds overspreading the waters as a cold front approaches from the north.
Morning clouds that exist should thin and this should promote good heating and a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass along and ahead of an advancing cold front. The combination of convergence/lift with the front and a more NE-SW oriented pre-frontal trof should lead to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms from central MO into central IL between 19-21z, with the activity shifting to the south-southeast through the late afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the advancing boundaries. A secondary cold front will then begin pushing into northern MO and central IL in the afternoon advancing south of the area on Monday night.
Looking at current satellite data, it looks like the low clouds are moving NW toward FST and MAF but still difficult to see due to extensive mid/high level cloud shield across the area. /issued 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ The upper ridge centered over the Arklatx this morning will shift west becoming centered over the 4 corners region Monday and remain over the west the rest of the week. An upper low wandering up from Mexico today and across the region will result in increased rain chances today into Monday.
Western portion of the frontal boundary ties into a developing area of low pressure in lee of the Rockies which will lift northward across NE late today into Monday.
742 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016 High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North Country through Sunday evening.
/issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ Broad upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern in South Florida for most of the forecast period. High temps will range between the low to mid 90s today with heat index values of 101 to 105 over Collier county.
/issued 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low has pushed north of the Texas Big Bend region this morning and is now centered over western Crockett county. The upper level low will begin to weaken through the overnight hours with rain chances ending over the eastern half of the forecast area. Afternoon highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, generally around 90 degrees, given good cloud cover associated with the upper Level disturbance.
For today, it is going to be tricky forecast on the high temperature south of Interstate 94. These temperatures then rise 1 to 2C during the afternoon as warm air advection develops ahead of the next short wave trough.
623 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Cold front over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa will drop down toward the I-70 corridor by this evening. Despite the passage of the weak cold front today and tonight, 850 hPa temps will remain near 20 C which will still support highs near 90 degrees both today and Monday.
Building ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather providing clear skies and warm temperatures.
1151 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure remains in control through Monday.
Expect even more as the backdoor cold front approaches with clouds and hopefully some rain heat index values should not meet criteria tomorrow and therefore lack the two day requirement we will hold off on a heat advisory at this time. /issued 504 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ Upper ridging will remain ovhd today expect will begin to gradually weaken with deep moisture on the increase. As the ridge begins to slowly shift wwd early this week, nw flow pattern to set up with convection to increase across mainly se OK and sw AR where upper flow is stronger, while more isold and diurnal convection expected to approach southern portions of the area durg the aftn in the form of a sea breeze.
Upper level ridging is shifting northward over the Great Basin with warmer air aloft moving into southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. Temperatures running around 10 degrees warmer today than yesterday. Upper level ridge will continue to build into the area. Warmer temperatures across the forecast area by about 10 degrees today, and about 10 more degrees of warming expected for Monday.
Even with the upper ridge beginning to shift east, subsidence from the remains an influence on temps, with highs above seasonal (low to mid 90s). Other than some showers over the Gulf along the land breeze boundary, I think there may be enough remnant ridging to preclude much in the way of convective development over land areas through most of the morning. This should allow instability to increase, as the periphery of the remaining ridge is used to pivot additional boundary layer moisture (with precipitable water values around 2 inches) by late afternoon. The cold front should weaken to a surface pressure trough as it moves into the Tennessee Valley.
The CI/CS shield should remain thin enough for good heating again today, with readings in the low to mid 90s expected.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 73 90 72 / 20 40 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 87 69 / 10 40 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 93 72 87 70 / 10 50 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 67 85 67 / 10 30 60 50.
South to southwest winds will become northeast this afternoon as a weakening backdoor cold front sags south into the waters.
845 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY.
942 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AN U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD FADE AROUND SUNSET WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE WITHIN A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LEAVE DRY WEATHER FOR THE BRO CWFA TONIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PREDOMINANTLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH NE FL AND SE GA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH RH LEVELS NUDGING UP SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
1007 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
745 AM MST MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
547 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016 THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON STATE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW SHOULD BE LESS AND WITH A BIT FASTER STORM MOTIONS NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST TOMORROW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER) A DECENT BET FOR TOMORROW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE COAST. CAUSING CLOUDS TO CLEAR TONIGHT FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH MONTANA TODAY. INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT GOOD SHEAR IN REGION OF GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CLARK.
1159 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY.
710 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY.
Thunderstorms continue across the area this morning as energy continues to rotate out of the Rockies upper trof into the Central Plains. Upper trof sweeps eastward through the evening and decreases storm chances west to east.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH AT 0900 THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT OGDEN SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THIS COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH THEY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT IF NOT LONGER AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED COLD FRONT AT THAT POINT.
1005 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE MONDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
635 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
914 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. /ISSUED 332 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE.
837 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL STRENGTHEN.
717 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER EAST TN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED EAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
949 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM DRT UP THROUGH WESTERN OK WILL BE KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TODAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THIS MORNING EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE BOTH OVER THE GULF AND OVER SETX.
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN. EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
704 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
557 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2016 THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIFTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST U. TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.