Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS A RESULT, THE GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE'S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE.
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL START TO EDGE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. SUBSIDENCE FROM EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE JET STREAM THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST.
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. THE GREATEST CHANCES APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF) AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. KED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVLEOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING.
1020 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 90S BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
1059 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
845 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ONE IS AN OLD FRONT AND THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IT LOCATION IS GOING TO BE DETERMINED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HOOSIER STATE AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.
1012 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS.
1129 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.
ONE IS AN OLD FRONT AND THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. IT LOCATION IS GOING TO BE DETERMINED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HOOSIER STATE AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED PAST SUNSET COURTESY OF THE FRONT AND COMBINED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND FORCING ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MAY START TO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPROACH THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK.
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z FEATURE THE AREA IN THE MIDST OF WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING OUT WEST.
637 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ AS OF 245 PM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO LAKE ERIE. AS A RESULT, THE GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE'S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE.
A VERY MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. WITH THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS ON TRACK. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING ABOVE THE 90S. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NW ONSHORE FLOW A BIT AGAIN FOR INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. MODELS STRETCH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BACK TO THE EAST AFTER WEDNESDAY.
738 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST- LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP- PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. OTHERWISE THE RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE 1ST OF JULY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST.
1036 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015 The upper level ridge positioned across the western half of the CONUS has kept the local region under northwest flow aloft. Additional CCN has likely allowed the cirrus deck to become a bit thicker than it might have under normal circumstances, keeping temperatures a bit cooler across much of the CWA this afternoon. A more active period of weather will begin tonight with several rounds of convective activity expected through the remainder of the week as multiple disturbances round the ridge.
1157 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015 The upper level ridge positioned across the western half of the CONUS has kept the local region under northwest flow aloft. Additional CCN has likely allowed the cirrus deck to become a bit thicker than it might have under normal circumstances, keeping temperatures a bit cooler across much of the CWA this afternoon. A more active period of weather will begin tonight with several rounds of convective activity expected through the remainder of the week as multiple disturbances round the ridge.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT/CO.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WATER VAPOR LOOP DID SHOW AN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS HELPED DEVELOP NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS IN THE LOW DESERTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
824 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
804 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MIDWEEK WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATTER PART OF THIS CYCLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK BOUDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. /ISSUED 401 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BACK TO THE EAST AFTER WEDNESDAY.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL SET IN TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
904 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS.
Expect scattered fair weather cumulus during the late morning and afternoon as upper level high pressure prevails.
/ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE BROAD RIDGE OVR THE WRN CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER WED WITH MUCH LESS CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE.
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US. RW MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWERING DEW POINTS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND.
1205 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 AVIATION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM.
924 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER. BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. THOUGH GENERALLY LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
/ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
1143 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO NE PA. H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD.
A weak cold front edging southward through central IL has a few isolated cells along it that are mainly diurnally driven.
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AVIATION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY. UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED AS IT PIVOTS FROM THE GL REGION EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SCT SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE TROF SWINGS THRU. THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG.
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF AXIS. THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS.
A LONE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. WE'LL SEE THE UPPER HIGH BUILD WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THIS WILL BRING MORE HOT WEATHER FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION.
THERE WERE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/DRIZZLE MIXED WITH THE SNOW IN THE MADISON AREA THIS MORNING. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TODAY. SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WRN WI BY 12Z WED.
THIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING OUT OF A LOW IN ILLINOIS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT SUITE OF HIGH WIND WARNING AT THE COAST AND AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
1102 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED CROSSING LOW PRESSURE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT ACRS CNTRL OH TO SRN PA SHOULD MOVE N AS A WRM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES TWD THE OH VLY RGN. LIMITED INSTABILTY AHD OF THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS AS WELL. SNOW SHOWERS ARE PSBL ESP N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. THE STRONGEST GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAYBE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
344 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. NOT A LOT OF ISSUES GOING FORWARD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A REINFORC- ING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THUR. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF AOA THE BAJA SHOULD HELP DRAW DIST- URBANCES (VIA THE SRN STREAM JET) ACROSS THE REGION BY MON AS POPS RETURN. PCPN PROGGED TO INCREASE TUES/WEDS AS THE UPPER TROF DEEP- ENS (INTO POSSIBLY A CLOSED LOW) AND BEGINS MOVING EAST. 41 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
245 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN EARLIER PROGGED. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG. THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
324 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front has pushed across all of West Central Texas, leaving slightly cooler conditions and gusty winds in its wake.
1113 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS S AR AND ADJACENT NE TX TO CONTINUE MOVING SE TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE MO TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A COOLER. MAY FURTHER LOWER POPS DEPENDING ON TRENDS BY MIDDAY AS COLD FRONT TO THE WEST BEGINS TO ENTER RED RIVER VALLEY PORTION OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IFR/MVFR/VFR AREAWIDE AND SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME.
310 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT.
LAST NIGHT THE SNOW DID NOT PAN OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY.
346 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH THE HIGH AND IS EVIDENCED BY THE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH AND THE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE.
FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF I-80.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A FEW HOURS LONGER. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETIRE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY.