Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PACIFIC SUPPORTED BY A 120KT JET. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING TOWARD THE AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS WAS TRANSLATING EAST. FOR TODAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS UP TO 18C. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT AS THE LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY EAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO ERN COLORADO WITH STRONG Q-G FORCING.
THE FIRST OF THESE STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER.
1251 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE. IT WILL BE WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM RIDGE.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION TODAY AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
STILL A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 06-10 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR REGION. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSES TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NEAR A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
715 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE. IT WILL BE WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM RIDGE.
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL DEEP INTO THE 30S WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE THE FREEZING MARK OR BELOW AT 3 AM CDT.
A strong upper level ridge extended from Alberta/Saskatchewan into the central Rockies early this morning. Short range models continue to show this ridge spread eastward through today and tonight and flattening out with time. A broad trough of low pressure at the surface will continue to slowly deepen from the western Dakotas into eastern Colorado through tonight. This will result in even warmer overnight lows generally in the 40s by Tuesday morning.
609 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 An upper-level ridge over the Rockies as depicted on water vapor imagery will begin to flatten as it enters the Central Plains early this week. This will allow for much warmer temperatures to build into the local area compared to the unseasonably cool temperatures over the past weekend.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE EPAC WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WATERS TODAY.
616 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois today, providing mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Winds will initially be from the W/NW early this morning, then will become SW by late this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts into the Ohio River Valley. As has been advertised for several days, a large upper-level trough currently off the coast of California will track eastward across the Rockies, causing surface cyclogenesis over the western Plains on Tuesday. Questions still remain regarding how quickly this system will track eastward through Illinois and how far southward the prevailing baroclinic zone will settle before the low arrives.
1020 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. HIGHS IN THE L TO M60S AREAWIDE WILL FEEL COOLER WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 27 AND 32 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS THE POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE SLIDES DOWN THE PENINSULA OPPOSING THE NORTHWARD FLOWING WARMER GULF STREAM.
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING.
940 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 35 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 34 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 34 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 29 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
Most locations have fallen below freezing this morning as low level winds have not yet begun to respond across eastern OK. Dry air remains in place through today with much warmer temps expected, leading to deteriorating fire wx conditions.
1246 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFFSHORE AND FRONT IS MOVING INLAND BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS A BROAD AREA INLAND WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS MORNING THEN THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW.
/ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY WITH WIND FIELDS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE CWA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN ON THE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH IS NEAR THE NAM/MET. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 BELOW CLIMO.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
1037 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER PA EARLY TODAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MID TN. WITH A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS EAST OF I-65 ALREADY AT FREEZING. THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 47 AT BOISE TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NW HARNEY COUNTY AND MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON TUESDAY. A MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TODAY WHICH WILL BE SOUTH OF A ROME- MOUNTAIN HOME-SUN VALLEY LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OREGON BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MILD /LOW 60S IN THE VALLEY/ TODAY BUT WILL COOL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1032 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL DEEP INTO THE 30S WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE THE FREEZING MARK OR BELOW AT 3 AM CDT.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE FA AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY BUT COOLER FORECAST. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA GETS KNOCKED DOWN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE. UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND COOLER 850MB TEMP WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH WAA INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH TO OUR EAST. A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES UP INTO THE YUKON AND A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. BUT WE WILL NEED TO SEE IF ANYTHING MIGHT DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SWD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE.
749 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NW UPPER FLOW WILL STAY OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST.
1048 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE. IT WILL BE WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM RIDGE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SCOURED LOWER HEIGHTS DEEP INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE AXIS REACHES NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A NOR'EASTER IS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. WITH AREAS OF SEA SPRAY READILY APPARENT ON THE LOWEST TILT OF THE RADAR. A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
1156 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MON. OR MAYBE WE ARE JUST LEFT IN A SUMMER PATTERN ON WEST SIDE OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES JUST SOUTH OF I-70.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER EACH PERIOD AT BEST.
WV imagery shows the SoCal trough shearing out over UT, having flattened the upper ridge well south into Mexico. West of this feature, Hurricane Blanca churns just SW of Cabo San Lucas, w/a fetch of moisture streaming from it around the ridge and into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At the sfc, moist, SE return flow continues promoting upslope diurnal convection omtns out west, where a low-lvl theta-e ridge has been anchored since last week. Models keep the theta-e ridge in place Monday, then shift it NW out of the area as the upper ridge backbuilds west.
THE UPPER RIDGE HELD CONVECTION DOWN TODAY. ALSO AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS DEEPENING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER SUNRISE.
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 THE COLD FRONT. IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOOSING OUT AS WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME WESTERLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREADING OVERHEAD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
734 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAT POPS CONTINUED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE THROUGH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE REGION. THE CAPPING OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LAYERS WAS RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WILL BEGIN TO MORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPS HAS BEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT HOLDING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WILL BE OUR LOWS FOR TOMORROW AROUND SUNRISE AS SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS RELAX.
20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 87 68 86 / 10 40 80 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 84 67 84 / 10 40 70 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 85 67 85 / 10 50 80 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 85 64 81 / 20 40 70 40.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH AN POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW.
859 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH ALONG THIS COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS CONVECTION SLIDES OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SOUTHERN CO ABOARD A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF FLATTENING OUT AND RETREATING SLOWLY TO THE SW. A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER RETREATS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP SWRD AND INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
850 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
A TROUGH WAS DEEPENING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN IL TRAILING SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SE IA/NRN MO/NE KS. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S AREA-WIDE.
TOMORROW STILL LOOKS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGH EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AROUND THE SAME IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES. REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION CUTS ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO ON MONDAY. BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE BETTER DEFINED WITH RIDGE AXIS TILTED FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
912 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
BETTER DEFINED HIGH PRES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION UNDERNEATH A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND DIGS SWWD. THIS DIGGING TROF WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO/KS. COINCIDENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES CENTER FROM NEBRASKA INTO NRN IA/SRN MN.
635 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 The main threat in the short term will revolve around thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon out ahead of a cold front across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Couple that with a slow moving cold front dropping through the area, unidirectional shear paralleling the front and very wet antecedent conditions and, training storms producing heavy rain may be possible. The upper level trough will move through the region by tomorrow morning leaving the area in benign northwest flow aloft.
AS OF 18Z CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
822 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FINALLY EXITING FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/ THE TROF ARE DISSIPATING AS THE SUN SETS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROF IS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SD. MONDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND WESTERLY WINDS USHER IN A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) The upper ridge which has been in place over Texas for the past several days will begin to shift to the west overnight and Monday, as an upper trough moves southeast across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. By early Monday evening the ridge axis should be centered over New Mexico and northern Mexico. Trailing portion of the cold front with the aforementioned upper trough will sag south of the Red River Monday afternoon, and may be near the northern border of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties by early Monday evening. With slight mid-level cooling and the approach of the cold front, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the far northern part of our area Monday afternoon.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AROUND 7 PM TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MUST GET THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK TO COME DOWN THE SLOPES BEFORE WE RELAX.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MONDAY.
1016 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAT POPS CONTINUED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
A MUCH COOLER AND STABLE AIRMASS IS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS WEAK TROUGH COULD EEK ITS WAY CLOSE TO THE STATE BY 12Z. MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SENDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INTO KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PAVING THE WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-25C ACROSS THE CWA.
WHEREAS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES THE RESULT OF STRONG SOLAR HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER UTAH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO RELAX A BIT OVER OHIO AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA DOWN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
At the surface, a diffuse trough axis has set up from near Minneapolis to Holton with only some modest convergence along this boundary. Because of this think the flooding risk is highest across east central KS ahead of the trough axis. If this is the case, we may see some clearing across northern KS so have trended temps a little cooler across the northern CO.
LOOK FOR A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.