Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface observations indicate that very little precip is reaching the ground, as the low levels remain fairly dry. Over the TN Valley, dewpoint depressions are 10 to 20 degrees, so it'll take a few more hours for the low levels to saturate enough for accumulating rainfall. Mostly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
The Mid-South is well removed from the warm sector, but warm advection throughout the lower/middle troposphere will continue to provide an impetus for showers across the region overnight and tomorrow. Warmer temperatures and anticipated across north MS with highs in the 70s. Temps have stopped their climb where clouds have moved in and are stuck in the lower 60s from the TN/MS line northward. Cool high pressure will remain anchored across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile a series of upper level disturbances and a northward moving warm front will result in rain across mainly the northern half of the Mid-South for the next 36 hours with mainly dry conditions across north MS. The surface warm front will lift north through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a few elevated thunderstorms possible.
Have also created a frost advisory buffer where temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. These two factors bring a threat of freezing temperatures, with forecast lows around 31 to 32 degrees. Temperatures quickly rise above freezing after sunrise. However, an upper-level ridge will begin moving eastward over the Plains by the evening hours. The warm air advection aloft ahead of this ridge will bring additional moisture, and chances for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. The second half of the week will be much warmer than the first.
This will again bring lows down around freezing for many locations, with the coldest locales seeing upper 20s.
The surface warm front may remain just to our south, so a north to south gradient in temps are expected Tuesday. The low level jet associated with this helps to produce some isolated showers near the Alabama/Tennessee state line in the morning, before upper level ridging builds back into the area from the south. Still expecting highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but not much warmer. On and off partly to mostly cloudy conditions Wednesday night should keep overnight temperatures warmer.
The first weak upper trough will cause storms to develop this afternoon and move east into the Permian Basin later this evening. Tuesday dries out due to weak upper ridging then another round of possibly severe storms is expected Wednesday with the passage of another trough.
The upper air pattern will feature a slight decrease in hghts the next few days as a relentless trough resides off the Pacific NW coast. This will make for a pair of windy days Tuesday and Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures.
The low/trough will slowly spread south and eventually east by Tuesday night. We may have enough ingredients for one or two severe storms, but these would be on the lower end for severe for mainly wind and hail. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow. Guerrero An upper level short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from the southwest on Wednesday. This trough looks like it will pass over the Panhandles during peak heating.
333 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool and tranquil weather will accompany high pressure today. Moisture and temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest.
A warm front will start to lift north across the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Instability will begin to increase and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the warm front as it lifts north across the region. Warmer conditions will begin to advect from southwest to northeast into the area on Wednesday.
The current forecast lows are a healthy range of 50s with lower in the East and warmer West with a SE component to the return flow. /Tonight through Tuesday night/ Look for temperatures tonight to once again be below average, as surface ridging with light east winds will allow temperatures to remain low behind the now passed cold front. Temperatures in our northern zones will be in the low 70s, with temperatures in our southern zones reaching the low 80s. Showers and thunderstorm will develop and expand into the afternoon hours on Tuesday, as that weak upper level disturbance fires convection along the warm front in Southeast OK and Southwest AR.
Moisture will continue to advect into the low/mid levels through the period, therefore mid level cigs are favored by daybreak, slowly lowering into the afternoon/evening, perhaps with some low VFR clouds late. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 51 76 58 83 / 10 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 50 69 53 81 / 10 30 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 48 68 52 81 / 10 30 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 43 63 50 78 / 10 20 20 0 10 NC.
156 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure through Wednesday.
430 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 One more potentially frosty night will be seen tonight before much warmer air starts to arrive. Frosty morning across much of the area with many locations generally along/east of SR 13/US 131 are seeing temperatures in the lower 30s and several spots have dipped to near or even below 30. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 50s (cooler along Lk MI). Continues to look like frost risk for NE half to maybe 2/3rds of the area remains, although most locations should stay above freezing.
A low pressure trough will develop in Montana and move east in response to an upper low over the northwest US that will start moving inland tonight and Tuesday. Increasing southeast winds to 30 mph are expected across western North Dakota Tuesday as teh trough moves east. Highs for Tuesday will be in the mid 40s southwest where the chances for rain will be greatest, to the lower to mid 50s north and east. Total rainfall is expected to range from a tenth of an inch to around 3 tenths, with the higher amounts across the north central. A thunderstorm or two is possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening across the south central as the low moves through. A trough sets up over the western US and a ridge over Minnesota.
Precipitation will be in the form of a rain snow mix in the lower elevations, with snow for the foothills and mountains above 5000 feet. METRO model showing foothills roadways should stay just above freezing overnight keeping roads mainly slushy or wet, but be alert for icy spots tonight. Highs will be a bit warmer Tuesday as the flow turns southwesterly with most areas in the 50s.
High pressure will bring dry and sunny conditions to Wednesday. Dew points are in the mid 20s so there/s still time for the temperatures to tumble below freezing before daybreak, so will leave the Freeze Warning as is. Closed 500mb low skims across the northern NY border into northern New England later today, Cold pool aloft with the low may trigger some instability showers today, especially in the afternoon in the vicinity of the weak surface front draped over the northern zones. High pressure builds in tonight for another very chilly and near record cold night. High pressure will be in place over the region Wednesday. High clouds will start to work back in Wednesday night as the ridge shifts eastward. Temperatures stay comparatively warmer Wednesday night, with lows generally in the 30s.
Part of a mid-level trough spreading into the region, this is the start of about 36 hours of on and off showers for us. Currently situated to the north of a warm front draped over central MS and AL, rainfall totals should be relatively low however, a couple of models have glommed onto the idea of about 3/4" rainfall over our northwest counties through tomorrow as the warm front finally starts to pull northward through the mid-state.
Rain to decrease in areal coverage from late morning into mid afternoon, though rain and thunderstorm chances will increase some from late afternoon through the remainder of the period as a warm front begins to lift north.
/issued 234 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020/ U/L trough over the eastern U.
151 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool high pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday, then becomes centered offshore on Wednesday.
We will be frost/freeze headline free tonight as the threat for near or below freezing temperatures has ended for now. Cloud bases remain fairly high as there is quite a bit of dry air in the low levels. Surface dewpoints are progged to approach the lower 60s in our southern counties by Wednesday afternoon with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to near 70 despite thick low clouds with a near saturated sounding up to near 700mb. In addition to the increase in moisture, mid/upper level flow is forecast to become more southwesterly as ridging moves to our east and a weak disturbance moves across the High plains region.
This coupled with solid May insolation, has led max-T forecast today toward the higher end of available temperature guidance, 67-71 most locals. Secondary high, or weak reinforcing cold front early Wednesday will temper the warming trend, but max-T should be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday, aided by milder starts, southerly flow in afternoon.
An upper level low pressure off the coast continues to feed moisture over the region under a southerly flow. Spokes of energy pivoting around the low will send a couple more waves of moisture and energy over the forecast area overnight. Currently, satellite imagery shows an impressive upper level low slowly moving north off the coast of OR. The center of this low will start to stall off the coast of the OR/WA border, placing the region under a moist southerly flow tonight through Wednesday night. Wednesday, the upper low will start to elongate, slightly weakening the system and turning flow aloft to the southwest. By Wednesday night, models indicate that the upper low will begin to move closer to the coast. Temperatures will be cooler through the period, with high temps in the 60s to lower 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday.
148 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Pennsylvania will remain under the influence of a deep upper trough through mid-week. The warmer temperatures will last through the weekend.
High pressure over eastern ND will move over the Red River Valley proper. North winds were under 10 mph and will continue to diminish overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough rotating through the western Great Lakes. Expect lows in the lower to mid 20s with a few teens in NW MN. High pressure will be over northwestern Minnesota Tuesday giving a light wind day. Dew point temperatures will be a tad higher, but with the higher temperatures, expect another day of low relative humidity values in the upper teens and 20s. Low pressure will track from the northern high plains into eastern Manitoba during this time frame. Near critical fire weather conditions will remain across the area due to the low humidity and fuels.
Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with afternoon highs reaching into the lower 80s for much of the forecast area south of I-20. Overnight lows will be warmer with readings in the lower 60s for locations along and west of the I-55 corridor, while mid to upper 50s will occur to the east.
Warm front trying to push into the area is help increase lift so seeing precipitation increase again on radar which is covered by forecast. Precipitation will be in the form of a rain snow mix in the lower elevations, with snow for the foothills and mountains above 5000 feet. METRO model showing foothills roadways should stay just above freezing overnight keeping roads mainly slushy or wet, but be alert for icy spots tonight. Highs will be a bit warmer Tuesday as the flow turns southwesterly with most areas in the 50s.
1104 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Pennsylvania will remain under the influence of a deep upper trough through mid-week. The warmer temperatures will last through the weekend.
In addition, an MCV is expected to develop and move east-northeast from Southwest Texas, which should enhance the flow in the lower to mid levels providing additional shear for organized convection.
1226 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. A clearing trend is expected to begin from W-E overnight/early Tue morning as the high builds in. With overnight lows expected to be near or below freezing, continued the freeze warning as is. Quiet, dry weather is expected today and Wednesday with high pressure over the Ohio River Valley. Areas near I80/ridges may need a Freeze Warning Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. A pattern shift is indicated for the latter half of the week as flow aloft flattens south of Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay troughing. A clearing sky is expected around sunrise with the arrival of surface ridging.
A line of thunderstorms from northwest of Eagle Pass to northwest of Columbia Bridge will move east.
234 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 U/L trough over the eastern U.
This increased in cloud coverage is because of an approaching upper level low that will move through the area this evening. The lowers CIGs will continue through the end of the TAF period and into Wednesday morning. A slightly warmer evening is in store tonight as surface winds continue to turn onshore, allowing for warm and moist Gulf air to once again filter into the region. Expect lows in the upper mid to upper 60s inland and in the lower 70s along the coast, with surface dew points climbing back up into the mid to high 60s by tomorrow morning.
343 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool and tranquil weather will accompany high pressure today. Moisture and temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest.
A quite day is forecast across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri as we remain on the edge of high pressure passing to our north and east and a weak storm system moving across Missouri early this morning. These clouds will help to limit solar insolation through the day with high temperatures today generally around 60 degrees along the Highway 20 corridor with the lower 60s elsewhere.
There will be increasing high clouds later this afternoon and evening, but not enough to dampen temp recovery and some warmer locations may approach 60.
Upper level pattern will begin slowly transitioning to a more summer-like setup this weekend with an upper ridge building over the southeast and the main polar jet stream shifting into the northern conus.
Eastern portions of the area will probably be warmer than the west since those areas could see a few breaks in the clouds. Given the cloud cover, I tended to side with the cooler solution of the HRRRv4 and NAM over the warmer solutions of the RAP and HRRRv3.
Much warmer temperatures expected for today with very strong lower level warm advection occurring throughout the day. Surface dew points should climb into the 40s at the very least, with some guidance even suggesting some potential for dew points in the lower 50s & resulting CAPE nearing 1500 J/kg.
619 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 One more potentially frosty night will be seen tonight before much warmer air starts to arrive. Frosty morning across much of the area with many locations generally along/east of SR 13/US 131 are seeing temperatures in the lower 30s and several spots have dipped to near or even below 30. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 50s (cooler along Lk MI). Continues to look like frost risk for NE half to maybe 2/3rds of the area remains, although most locations should stay above freezing.
High pressure building in across the Carolinas will veer winds to the NE/ENE today, which will become breezy by late this morning continuing into the early evening hours. Observed temperatures are running a bit warmer than what was in the hourly grids/forecast so this morning's update has nudged up highs a degree or two. High pressure building over the eastern US will keep conditions dry today. Breezy NE winds around 15 kts north of Sebastian Inlet this afternoon, as the pressure gradient tightens between the high and a stalled front across the Florida Straights.
636 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Early this morning, temperature hadn't fallen as fast as expected so freezing temperatures will confined to central Minnesota, and the typical areas where good drainage occurred. I will continue the freeze warning, but not everyone will experience sub-freezing temperatures before sunrise. No major changes to the current forecast as high pressure will drift overhead today.
Sfc analysis shows a high pres ridge extending fm the N Plains southeast acrs the mid MS Valley into the SE US. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer this morning than this time yesterday, ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Although moisture is progged to increase acrs the area, fcst soundings show a layer of drier/warmer air between 850-700 MB which will inhibit convective development acrs SE TX during the day. Increasing high clouds should remain thin enough today for insolation to warm temperatures into the lower 80s.
Cool high pressure will remain across the area today while passing upper level disturbances will result in continued rain chances across mainly the northern portion of the Mid-South. Tonight, a warm front will lift northward. Rain chances will continue to decrease from south to north as the warm front lifts north of the area by Wednesday morning.
Mostly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Mostly clear skies remain in these areas and for some across the James Valley and point east, temps have dipped below the freezing mark. High pressure will drift south and eastward and away from our area through the day as lower pressure organizes to the west. Low pressure to the west will slowly trek toward western SD later today into tonight. A bit better recovery today in eastern areas with highs back into the low 50s. Slightly cooler readings are expected west underneath thicker cloud cover and increasing rain chances.
A warmer day is on tap as weak ridging builds overhead today. Isold storms will also be possible further S over the higher terrain this afternoon. A more vigorous shrtwv trof will move in from the W on Wednesday and the dryline will once again bisect the CWA from W-E. Temperatures on Wed should top out a few degrees warmer than today.
Lows tonight will be warmer than the past few days from extensive cloud cover and warm air advection, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Clouds and rain will keep temps in the 50s across the north while some peaks of sun will allow locations across parts of north MS to climb into the lower 70s. Cool high pressure will remain across the area today while passing upper level disturbances will result in continued rain chances across mainly the northern portion of the Mid-South. Tonight, a warm front will lift northward. Rain chances will continue to decrease from south to north as the warm front lifts north of the area by Wednesday morning.
For today then, most areas will see warmer temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and some breezy conditions this afternoon.
852 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool and tranquil weather will accompany high pressure today. Moisture and temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest.
/Updated at 0223 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020/ Currently watching a weak disturbance slide along the southern edge of the next area of high pressure. The main upper ridge is firmly in place and is keeping the majority of the precipitation to our north. Lows will be a touch warmer with readings mainly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s in the northeast.
Model soundings indicate that the low- levels will remain dry throughout the day. Increasing moisture in the low/mid levels will yield lowering cigs through the period.
Temperatures were lowered slightly across north central Nebraska back into the Sandhills as I think the combination of cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures cooler. A warm front will push into the area and bring much warmer temperatures for Wednesday. Temperatures will be around 25 to 30 degrees warmer than today as highs will finally be near seasonal with highs in the 70s. A series of disturbances will move across the High Plains over the next several days with an unsettled weather pattern.
644 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool and tranquil weather will accompany high pressure today. Moisture and temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest.
336 AM PDT Tue May 12 2020 A weak trough of low pressure moving inland across southern California today will maintain stronger onshore flow into tonight with cooling for today, stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts through tonight, and a slight chance for light showers along and west of the mountains for tonight into early Wednesday.
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight and Wednesday morning, with showers and isolated thunderstorms remaining possible, mainly north of the advancing front.
555 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure through Wednesday.
808 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure through Wednesday.
1027 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. High pressure will support dry weather and diminished cloud cover today. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterdays cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
1050 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure over the central Appalachians supports fresh to occasionally strong northeast breezes across the Florida Keys this morning.
526 AM MDT Tue May 12 2020 08z surface analysis had warm front from western MT into northeast CO. Water vapour had low amplitude ridge over the Rockies heading our way. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east pushing warm front into CWA. Degree of clearing behind warm front in question as upper trough swings from the central Rockies toward MT/WY this afternoon/evening.
Showers and even isolated thunderstorms continue in north-central Idaho and west-central Montana early this morning as a warm frontal feature moves through the region. The associated area of moisture is still expected to encounter cooler easterly winds and snow levels between 4000-5000 feet in the Glacier Region, including Marias Pass where 1-3 inches of snow is expected during this morning. Thunderstorms look to linger through the evening, while showers will remain through the night, especially north of Highway 12 and Interstate 90 due to the influence of a low-pressure system approaching from Alberta. The low dropping out of Canada on Wednesday will enhance showers throughout the day and will provide thunderstorm chances, especially during the afternoon.
Otherwise, a rather pleasant day is expected, with light winds and afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.
If the warm front can mix north early in the period, then there could be a threat for sfc-based storms developing to our southwest along the dryline but confidence in this scenario remains rather low at this time.
Thunder chances will increase late tonight as a warm front lifts through the area, with MVFR vsbys where RA/TSRA occurs. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight and Wednesday morning, with showers and isolated thunderstorms remaining possible, mainly north of the advancing front.
835 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 A deep upper trough over the northeast conus will finally lift out by Wednesday, as high pressure builds into Pennsylvania.
535 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 A deep upper trough over the northeast conus will finally lift out by Wednesday, as high pressure builds into Pennsylvania.
723 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 A deep upper trough over the northeast conus will finally lift out by Wednesday, as high pressure builds into Pennsylvania.