Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
147 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The pattern aloft this afternoon features a closed low over the midwest with high pressure aloft over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. At the surface, high pressure sits just off the mid- Atlantic coast, with easterly winds continuing across the local area.
Hennig (This afternoon through Sunday night) The sounding this morning showed a pretty saturated atmosphere in the lowest 10kft. An upper high building over West Texas and eastern New Mexico will create enough subsidence to prevent any showers tomorrow.
107 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The upper-level ridge that has been positioned over the Midwest the last couple of days is beginning to shift further eastward as the Southwest cut-off low begins to eject into the Great Plains. Forcing from weak, subtle vorticity maxima ahead of the approaching cut-off low has utilized the moist, weakly unstable air mass over the CWA to produce scattered showers and a brief thunderstorm or two this morning. The chance for this convection will diminish west to east as the slow moving cold front makes its way through the CWA, exiting during the late afternoon/early evening.
Behind the trof, a broad upper ridge is over southwestern Canada with clouds crossing the ridge axis. winds will gradually become southeast as ridge shifts to the east.
318 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the ern half of the U.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 77 66 78 63 / 50 80 70 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 77 65 77 62 / 20 70 60 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 64 76 64 76 61 / 40 80 60 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 77 61 75 59 / 10 50 70 80 30.
Cronce (Issued 338 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021) Today through Sunday: Low pressure near the Wisconsin/Illinois border will slowly shift eastward through the region today into Sunday. Forcing will not be particularly strong today through tomorrow, but looks like enough lift between some warm advection aloft, upper level divergence, and the eventual trough/front passage on Sunday. The lift looks a little better tomorrow as the front/trough move through, so had higher confidence in raising precip chances. Highs tomorrow will drop a few more degrees as the low moves overhead.
The upper low is in Kansas as of this afternoon and is projected to slide east into Missouri tonight. A ridge will build over the western United States tonight and tomorrow. By Sunday night an upper low will take shape over Michigan and another smaller, weaker low will move south along the periphery of the ridge and west of the low, skirting eastern Nebraska. It will also be dry overnight with dew points in the low to mid 30s. Greater subsidence will be to the southwest in Colorado where a high pressure system is centered, which will not have much influence in the Nebraska Panhandle.
Flow from the Gulf of Mexico has brought a very moist airmass to the lower Ohio Valley, with precipitable water values of 1. By Sunday morning, a surface cold front will begin to push from west to east across the forecast area. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the lower to middle 60s with plenty of cloud cover.
High pressure situated along the Carolina coast is maintaining primarily strong northeast to east breezes across the area. With breezy conditions and slightly lower dewpoints, a beautiful day is currently ongoing across the region! The aforementioned high pressure will move off of the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight as a mid-upper level trough pushes across the eastern United States. Winds will shift back to the east to southeast as the high pressure is shoved eastward, which will help to usher in more moisture.
Despite the high PWats from the satellite derived product, it will have to moisten up the column if we are to see any rain overnight. Seeing generally 15 to 20 knots east of the Seven Mile Bridge, while holding onto near 20 knots in the western waters. Small Craft Advisories (SCA) remain in effect for waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge, with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines elsewhere. Therefore have ended the SCA for waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge and replaced with SCEC.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Sunday/ Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop early this evening near a weak cold front located near a line from Bonham to Cleburne to Lampasas at 5 pm. The front and broken line of showers and storms will move slowly southeast through the evening as high pressure and dry air builds in from the northwest.
845 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 There have been a few showers mainly over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening with a couple sprinkles making it onto the plains. For temperatures, Sunday's highs look to be 1-3 C warmer than today's readings.
615 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Weak diurnal instability under the upper low spinning over south central Kansas will continue to promote isolated storms within the overall area of widely showers across south central/southeast Kansas into the early evening. Area of scattered to more numerous showers within the narrow deformation zone will continue to affect portions of central Kansas either side of the highway 50 corridor with most precip across the entire area dissipating/shifting east before midnight. Otherwise, a drier and seasonably warm regime will close out the weekend as the departing upper low is replaced by an upper trof in the northwest flow moving from the northern Plains across the Midwest and central conus by Sunday night.
In addition, expect isolated to scattered showers and a few storms to continue overnight as low to mid-level low pressure trof approaches from the west.
The main upper level low that gave us our rainfall is now over south central Kansas as it continues to move northeast. But these winds will further dissipate as the low continues to move out of the central Plains. H500 ridge begins to build in the Four Corners Region tomorrow afternoon with slightly more apparent H850 WAA into the Panhandles. Compared to highs today in the mid 70s, high temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
/issued 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021/ Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over west central KS. A midlevel dry slot extended up the southeast side of the upper low, from northwest TX into the western Ozarks. By early overnight, the upper low will have moved from west central KS into central MO. Despite modest midlevel lapse rates, height falls and low level forcing along the surface pressure trof may be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms. By midday Sunday, most of the showers will have translated east to the TN River, with the upper trof. Drying behind Sunday morning's trof passage will be short-lived, as additional upper level energy digs south through the plains Sunday night.
Overall, we remain under the influence of an area of high pressure.
642 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 A diffuse, slow-moving cold front extends from south-central IA to eastern OK. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late this evening and overnight as lift increases at the leading edge of an upper-level trough forecast to pivot across the Midwest and the cold front reaches the CWA. The upper-level trough will advance northeastward into the Great Lakes on Sunday, but will be closely follow by another upper-level diving into the Central Plains. Despite the diffuse cold front clearing the CWA by late Sunday morning, residual low-level moisture could yield enough instability to drive isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, especially across IL where the moisture will be greatest.
The upper level low pressure center was making its way out of Kansas and into Western Missouri at mid evening. With the frontal boundary and the upper level trof axis about to fully exit the CWA. Some cloud cover associated with the backside of the upper low could push into Northwest Arkansas overnight.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) The sounding this morning showed a pretty saturated atmosphere in the lowest 10kft. An upper high building over West Texas and eastern New Mexico will create enough subsidence to prevent any showers tomorrow.
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper trough/low will continue to move across the central/southern Plains through tonight. Sunday is expected to be dry and maybe a few degrees warmer (highs in the 80s) with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds.
Pleasant fall weather is in store this weekend with warmer temperatures.
Expect slowly improving ceilings mid to late morning with increased convective rainfall coverage during the afternoon, especially over eastern portions of the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front.
On the current surface weather map, a strung out but weak area of low pressure extends from southern Lake Superior into eastern Wisconsin. We are in the trough portion of a Rex block with the ridge portion around James and Hudson Bays. The only thing going for the thunder would be the upper low transiting the forecast area.
910 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Rain chance returns tonight and tomorrow with approaching low pressure. Pre-frontal showers will continue into Sunday morning as the low pressure system lingers across the region.
Stout high pressure continues off of the mid Atlc coast with deep, but light onshore flow. Swells from Sam will gradually abate as the Tropical Cyclone accelerates NE over the central Atlantic.
828 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure sitting off the mid-Atlantic coast keeps a relatively stable environment with predominant easterly winds over the Florida peninsula. High pressure north of the area will keep a predominant easterly wind flow in place for the next few days.
718 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure will shift offshore this evening and tonight. A cold front will approach slowly from the west early in the upcoming work week as an upper level low develops and lingers across the eastern U. Deep layer ridging centered will gradually slide east towards the coast through tonight. Lows tonight will be milder as well, ranging from upper 50s in the cooler spots to lower 60s elsewhere.
(Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough is centered over the Midwest with westerly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. There is a possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two from the Lower Trans Pecos southward to the Rio Grande today with dewpoints reaching the 60s. Upper ridging begins to strengthen over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Monday resulting in an end to the rain chances.
Ahead of the clear slot, an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has been increasing as modelled by the high-res guidance. As the clear slot shifts slowly east, the high-res guidance such as the hrrr takes most of the showers east of our region by about 15z. A deep upper level trough will extend from the Great Lakes back into the Ozarks on Monday. A cutoff low will develop in the trough over Arkansas late in the day on Monday and linger over the lower MS valley through midweek.
1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level trough axis responsible for today's showers across the area continues to move off to the north and east bringing the chances for showers with it. Lows tonight will be comfortable in the low 60s with light and variable winds. A weak ridge will start to build in from the west tomorrow but subsidence will not be strong enough to limit the cloud cover. High temperatures for tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with light winds out of the north at less than 10 mph.
This feature is responsible for the area of showers and isolated thunderstorms pivoting across CWA along a cold front roughly bisecting the area north to south. The main focus for this convection will shift eastward early this morning with the low and front, diminishing in coverage and intensity later in the morning as the front exits the CWA. As the low slowly exits the region, upper-level support and boundary layer moisture behind the front will be sufficient to form widely scattered showers across the CWA.
127 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain chances increase today with approaching low pressure. Pre-frontal showers will continue into Sunday morning as the low pressure system lingers across the region. Convection should become more isolated by late Monday evening/night as high pressure builds to the west and drier air aloft prevails. A closed low over the MS Valley, which spawned from the advancing trough through our region Sunday into Monday, will keep southwest flow active.
403 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A broad upper trough over the MS Valley will amplify through the short term. becoming a closed upper low by the end of the period. Models hint at a couple of impulses moving through the trough across GA.
257 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain chances increase today with approaching low pressure. Pre-frontal showers will continue into Sunday morning as the low pressure system lingers across the region. Convection should become more isolated by late Monday evening/night as high pressure builds to the west and drier air aloft prevails. A closed low over the MS Valley, which spawned from the advancing trough through our region Sunday into Monday, will keep southwest flow active.
313 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 An upper level low centered over Missouri and Iowa very early this morning will continue to slide out of the region today. This will lead to optimum radiational cooling, and look for lows to drop into the mid and upper 40s - with coolest readings in the lowest elevations. For the upcoming week, models are in good agreement on an upper level ridge building into the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region through mid week, while a cut off low develops over the lower Mississippi Valley out of the trough currently exiting our area.
Went just a few degrees warmer with the MaxT than NBM and closer to MOS guidance using the CONSMOS.
High pressure will build across the area today in the wake of the departing cold front. Early this week an upper level low will be carved out across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
By Monday, the upper trough over the Great Lakes region begins to amplify as it extends into much of the south central CONUS. At the surface, a cold front begins to approach the region from the northwest. Daytime highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s each day due to the increased rain chances and cloud cover.
341 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 (Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021) Today and tonight: Low pressure over central Wisconsin early this morning will gradually shift east-southeast today. There will be plenty of moisture still in place today, with precipitable water values on the high end for early October per sounding climatology. Forcing doesn't look particulary strong today, though should be enough lift as the front/trough move through for more widespread showers/storms than yesterday. Temps today will be down from yesterday given cloud cover and precip chances with the low overhead, but still a few degrees above normal for early October.
Another feature the satellite photos are detecting is a weak cold front that extends from northeast Texas southwestward into the Hill Country. After sunset, shower activity should come to an end with dry weather conditions expected through Monday as the subtropical ridge takes control of our area.
Winds are light from the west due to the influence of the ridge, and temperatures are currently in the 40s, with decent radiational cooling under the clear conditions. The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis in combination with the latest mid level water vapor do show the upper low that affected the region yesterday has moved into the central Mississippi Valley, allowing for an upper ridge over the western portion of the country, to shift east and begin affecting the CWA in the short term.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 65 78 63 74 / 90 70 70 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 63 78 62 75 / 80 60 70 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 75 63 77 61 75 / 80 60 70 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 58 75 58 75 / 50 70 80 40 80.
404 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain chances increase today with approaching low pressure. Light, scattered showers continue to move mainly across western and northern portions of the forecast area this morning in advance of an approaching upper trough. Rainfall will becoming more focused along the ridges by late tonight and early Monday.
Late in the week, another system may bring another round of precipitation, with snow possible for the high terrain of the eastern Sierra.
354 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Surface front slowly drifts southward today as a cold front with scattered light rain showers continuing along the front. High pressure will build in by the middle of the week, finally allowing for drier weather. Decaying upper troughiness across the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will finally edge east Monday night and will continue to affect the area with scattered to numerous showers, most prevalent across the Adirondacks into central/southern VT.
Sunday will see high temperatures a few degrees warmer than the previous day from the ample insolation expected, which should continue into Monday as well with highs in the mid 80s. An upper low should shoot southward from the Midwest and sit just to the east of North & Central Texas during the day Monday, putting the area in a subsident regime while any rain chances remain to the east. An upper low will take a dive southward into the Southern Plains on Monday but will eventually lose its momentum as it reaches the Deep South sometime Monday night. As this occurs, we will be positioned on the western (subsident) side of the upper low, keeping sunny and rain-free conditions in place.
326 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Satellite water vapor imagery early this morning depicts an upper level trough situated over Missouri early this morning, which is leading to an area of light to moderate showers over central Missouri. The upper level trough will continue to have influence over the region as it gradually digs southwards towards the lower Mississippi Valley into early this coming week and becomes a cut- off low through mid-week. At the same time, an elongated upper level ridge will build across the Plains states into the Great Lakes region with the upper low locked in under the ridge.
320 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Mississippi River Valley this morning with a closed low in the Canadian Maritimes and a ridge in the desert sw. The trough slowly moves east to the lower Great Lakes by 12z Mon.
A cold front will sweep across the state, switching SW winds to NW behind the boundary mid-day through the afternoon. The interaction of the boundary with warm air out ahead of it, and the close proximity of a closed upper low to northwest/northern Arkansas will allow for continued showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front tonight into early Sunday. The upper low will lift out late tonight into Sunday, with the front gradually shifting eastward, and showers/storms coming to an end during the day Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier air will follow the front, and this will be reinforced as a trough digs down from the mid Mississippi Valley and forms a cutoff low.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper level trough axis responsible for today's showers across the area continues to move off to the north and east bringing the chances for showers with it. Lows tonight will be comfortable in the low 60s with light and variable winds. A weak ridge will start to build in from the west tomorrow but subsidence will not be strong enough to limit the cloud cover. High temperatures for tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with light winds out of the north at less than 10 mph.
233 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 We are going to be entering a dry period today as we enter a region of northwest flow from the upper trough that moved through yesterday. The models continue to show a piece of energy shoot southward on the backside of the trough, which begins the formation of an upper level cutoff low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This low will keep us in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft through the early period. By midweek we will be caught between weather systems and could potentially see a brief period of zonal or weak flow aloft, by the end of the week models are in pretty decent agreement that we will see height rises out ahead of an approaching trough on the U.
1133 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Weak diurnal instability under the upper low spinning over south central Kansas will continue to promote isolated storms within the overall area of widely showers across south central/southeast Kansas into the early evening. Area of scattered to more numerous showers within the narrow deformation zone will continue to affect portions of central Kansas either side of the highway 50 corridor with most precip across the entire area dissipating/shifting east before midnight. Otherwise, a drier and seasonably warm regime will close out the weekend as the departing upper low is replaced by an upper trof in the northwest flow moving from the northern Plains across the Midwest and central conus by Sunday night.
1117 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Westerly flow on the backside of the departing upper low as well as moist upslope flow is helping to support some showery development over and near the mountains this afternoon.
1053 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper trough/low will continue to move across the central/southern Plains through tonight. Sunday is expected to be dry and maybe a few degrees warmer (highs in the 80s) with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds.
250 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Weak high pressure will continue to remain over the area through the day Sunday keeping the area dry with near-average temperatures. As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward through the day Sunday, southwesterly flow will set up bringing breezy winds through the Wind Corridor from South Pass to Casper.
The low level jet moves away from the area and the theta-e plume degrades overhead at the same time as subsidence occurs overhead allowing for lesser coverage in rainfall this morning. Highs only rise into the 70s, today, as the upper low pressure center moves overhead. The slow-moving upper low may be able to force a few showers Monday morning. Then, instability increases during the afternoon and that paired with small scale temperature gradients and small vort maxes underneath the upper low is expected to allow for afternoon thunderstorms especially east of I-69, which is out in front of the expected position of the forcing.
323 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue across central AR into the Mid-South early this morning downstream of a mature, upper-level trough lifting across MO. Strong forcing for ascent is noted from the OH Valley through the Lower MS Valley, concomitant with height falls aloft. Additional redevelopment is possible this afternoon as the cold front moves across the area. As this trough settles over the area tomorrow, the cooler temperatures aloft may support isolated showers, but coverage should remain spotty at best.
Today through Monday: Notable amplification of the upper-air pattern is forecast over the next 24-36-h, featuring the development of a ridge from the northern Plains into southern Rockies, and an adjacent closed low over the lower-MS Valley. In the low levels, the tendency will be for high pressure to build into the region, yielding quiet weather.
On Monday, an upper- level ridge is stationed over us so winds look lighter and temperatures will be warmer.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Monday as a cold front approaches and passes through the region. Highs Monday will climb into the lower to middle 80s.