Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Key Messages: - Very strong south winds continue through the day - Storms across central Kansas could impact north central Kansas this morning - Additional storm chances this afternoon/evening with severe storms possible A closed low was ejecting ejecting across the northern and central Plains early this morning with a line of severe storms developing along a cold front across western and central Kansas. Better chances come with the cold front that moves through during the late afternoon and evening.
A cold front will move through tonight, bring westerly winds to all terminals. Cooler temps have kept a fairly stout capping inversion overhead with 15Z LBB AMDAR sounding showing a +6C inversion and a convective temp of 84F. The upper low currently over the Four Corners will push a Pacific Front through the region late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to near 10 percent area wide tomorrow afternoon despite slightly cooler temps. As the upper level trough spins off into the Northern Plains on Saturday, it will send a cold front through the area late Saturday through early Sunday. This will provide the area with several days of cooler than seasonal average temperatures. Another short wave moving through the central/southern Rockies will rotate around the larger scale trough on Sunday.
Srly winds will become gusty at most locations on Sat with gusts upwards of 20-30 knots, especially over the higher terrain. During the second half of the forecast period, a cold front will approach northwest sections of the forecast area.
1130 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A warm front will slowly push eastward out of the Ohio Valley and through the Commonwealth of PA between tonight and Sunday. The warm front will bisect PA Sat afternoon, resulting in warm temperatures in the west and cool temperatures in the east. The front will nudge to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
345 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Remote (RADAR/Satellite) and surface observations from the West Texas Mesonet, as of 2:30 AM, shows a Pacific cold front stretching from just northwest of Amarillo to Hereford to Dora. This cold front will move through the area this morning into this afternoon, bringing strong west-southwesterly winds and dry conditions to the region. GKendrick Cold front will continue advancing southward Sunday morning and upon encountering moist and moderately unstable zone in the southern Rolling Plains will be capable of generating showers and a few thunderstorms. Upper trough will be just west with upper flow slightly more backed and have some potential for moisture to lift a bit further north and west as an upper jet readies to cross the area late Sunday.
Tonight and Saturday The main focus for this forecast period is precipitation trends through the remainder of this evening into tonight and warmer conditions to start the weekend. However, some forecast soundings are showing a layer of dry and slightly warmer air above 850mb that may prevent tapping into the elevated instability. The low temperature will likely occur sometime this evening since warmer air will follow the 850mb warm front, causing temperatures to gradually warm overnight into early Saturday morning. The surface warm front will slowly lift into WI early Saturday morning, reaching the forecast area by late Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures are expected along the lakeshore with readings in the middle 50s to low 60s. The combination of the warmer, moist air, southerly winds, and cooler water temperatures will likely result in fog development, dense at times, along the lakeshore areas.
(Today and tonight) Upper longwave trough will continue to shift eastward today. Overnight tonight anticipate overall severe risk to diminish, but some showers and storms will likely linger along and ahead of stalled dryline across the south and advancing cold front to the north.
Above normal temperatures continue as the thermal ridge persists over our area. Models are backing off on any significant precipitation for our area for tonight and Sunday as the anticipated cold front is now forecast to stay farther to the northwest of our area until just beyond the short term. Also, the low level jet may provide forcing for patchy light rain or drizzle during the early morning hours today and Sunday.
Models indicate that the 500 mb height fall center should track up into northeast SD by this evening, with the low strengthening as it does so. With the strong winds and decreasing RH behind the cold front/dry line today, converted the fire weather watch to a Red Flag Warning and expanded it a bit. These could approach severe limits, but the higher chance of organized severe storms seems to be this afternoon. That would be along and ahead of the cold front that will be pushing through the area. Highs will be cooler on Sunday, 50s north and 60s south.
/AJ/ By Sunday, the center of the upper ridge will be off the Georgia/South Carolina coastlines.
326 AM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure centered over southwestern SD. Negatively tilted trough digs into the central plains. On the backside of the low, temperatures are dropping fast, with snow ongoing in northeastern Wyoming.
Fair skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure continues over the area. High pressure at the surface and aloft will become centered over the Carolinas, but will continue to dominate our weather, keeping us dry and our temps nearly 10 degrees above normal this weekend.
742 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A band of dense fog has been prevalent downwind of Lake Superior along the higher terrain surrounding the lake. Model guidance shows this lasting through around noon, so issued a Dense Fog Advisory to cover this low visibility threat.
641 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 The rain associated with the elevated warm front is now northeast of the terminals. Strong low level south-southwest flow in the warm sector and the diurnal heating will drive the surface warm front north into the thumb/southern Lake Huron this afternoon. Warm front is on track to clear southeast Michigan this morning, with just some residual shower/thunderstorm activity possible over the Thumb Region a couple hours after 12z. Otherwise, clearing skies and south-southwest winds increasing as upper level ridge axis (~580 DAM at 500 MB) resides over the Central Great Lakes.
636 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 The strong low pressure system that will be moving through the Dakotas today and Sunday is creating a number of forecasting challenges. Showers and thunderstorms with the warm front and the llj continue to develop and move north early this morning. Synoptic winds will increase across the area through the day as the low moves north. Wind speeds on the cold side of the low will be close to warning levels as soon as this afternoon, but a warning looks like it will be necessary for Sunday with NBM 90th and current forecast gusts above 60 mph. Temperatures will fall through the afternoon on the cold side of the low. Snow showers may linger on the back of this system into Sunday evening before high pressure builds in and dries everything out.
Upper high positioned over the Carolina coast this morning. Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
1050 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front extending from Southern Ohio to Northern West Virginia and Virginia will cause clouds and intermittent light rain this morning before lifting north with a bit of improvement this afternoon. The warm front will bisect PA from northwest to southeast this afternoon, resulting in warm temperatures in the west and cool temperatures in the east. The front will drift to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
424 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 The strong low pressure system that will be moving through the Dakotas today and Sunday is creating a number of forecasting challenges. Showers and thunderstorms with the warm front and the llj continue to develop and move north early this morning. Synoptic winds will increase across the area through the day as the low moves north. Wind speeds on the cold side of the low will be close to warning levels as soon as this afternoon, but a warning looks like it will be necessary for Sunday with NBM 90th and current forecast gusts above 60 mph. Temperatures will fall through the afternoon on the cold side of the low. Snow showers may linger on the back of this system into Sunday evening before high pressure builds in and dries everything out.
As an upper low deepens over the central plains today, a broad trough of low pressure will move eastward into west Texas. Low level moisture return continues with the strong low level southerly flow, leading to increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures today. A dryline and Pacific cold front will approach west central Texas this evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and behind the dryline.
The strong south winds are subsiding across the eastern areas as a cold front has advanced through the western two thirds of the forecast area. Temperatures ranged from 44 at Gordon to 72 at O'Neill (ahead of the cold front). Regarding precipitation chances, categorical POPs today across the northwest Sandhills in closest proximity to the closed upper low. Colder air will also reside across this area, especially the Pine Ridge, where light snow accumulations from a 1/2 to as much as 2 inches may accumulate, mainly on grassy surfaces. Highs today much cooler from only the upper 30s far northwest to the mid and upper 60s far eastern areas.
430 AM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure centered over southwestern SD. Negatively tilted trough digs into the central plains. On the backside of the low, temperatures are dropping fast, with snow ongoing in northeastern Wyoming.
The surface pressure gradient will tighten as a cold front over the Plains slowly progresses eastward this weekend. Underneath the upper level ridging pattern, the southerly breeze will be refreshing as afternoon high temperatures reach the low to mid 80s across the TN Valley. As this system pushes the upper- level ridge that has been in place off to the east, we will see a cold front start to approach on Sunday. Expect a second day of breezy southerly winds and warm temperatures getting up into the low-to-mid 80s.
621 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 High pressure remains over the Southeast this morning with clear skies and enough southerly winds to keep us mostly clear of any fog. Otherwise, today will be another warm, sunny day with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. As the high pressure circulation continue to shifts eastward, an increase in the pressure gradient across our area will help to ramp up southerly winds later this morning, with wind gusts around 15-25 mph by this afternoon. As this system pushes the upper- level ridge that has been in place off to the east, we will see a cold front start to approach on Sunday. Expect a second day of breezy southerly winds and warm temperatures getting up into the low-to-mid 80s.
625 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper longwave trough will continue to shift eastward today. Overnight tonight anticipate overall severe risk to diminish, but some showers and storms will likely linger along and ahead of stalled dryline across the south and advancing cold front to the north.
518 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front extending from Southern Ohio to Northern West Virginia and Virginia will cause clouds and intermittent light rain this morning before lifting north with a bit of improvement this afternoon. The warm front will bisect PA from northwest to southeast this afternoon, resulting in warm temperatures in the west and cool temperatures in the east. The front will drift to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
725 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Upper level ridge will be parked over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast U. while high pressure on the eastern seaboard this morning slips out over Atlantic coastal waters by this evening. The upper ridge will provide a stable. and warm airmass while the high pressure ridges into the Gulf with a breezy easterly flow across the area. High pressure centered north of the waters will maintain a tight gradient across the area for the next couple of days but then begins to relax as the high pressure slips eastward.
A mid level low associated with a negatively tilted trough currently sites over central / northeastern Colorado, wrapping moisture around as the system continues a northeast trend into eastern Wyoming. Even so, still expecting snowfall to continue across the high elevations of northern Colorado where Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until midnight tonight.
Upper level ridge over the area today will shift east tonight.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ Remote (RADAR/Satellite) and surface observations from the West Texas Mesonet, as of 2:30 AM, shows a Pacific cold front stretching from just northwest of Amarillo to Hereford to Dora. This cold front will move through the area this morning into this afternoon, bringing strong west-southwesterly winds and dry conditions to the region. GKendrick Cold front will continue advancing southward Sunday morning and upon encountering moist and moderately unstable zone in the southern Rolling Plains will be capable of generating showers and a few thunderstorms. Upper trough will be just west with upper flow slightly more backed and have some potential for moisture to lift a bit further north and west as an upper jet readies to cross the area late Sunday.
953 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front extending from Southern Ohio to Northern West Virginia and Virginia will cause clouds and intermittent light rain this morning before lifting north with a bit of improvement this afternoon. The warm front will bisect PA from northwest to southeast this afternoon, resulting in warm temperatures in the west and cool temperatures in the east. The front will drift to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
- Scattered thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through.
Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere over the southeast CONUS will dominate our weather through Sunday, resulting in warm and dry conditions. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be channeled around the periphery of the ridging, leading to precip potential from the western Gulf Coast northward to a cold frontal boundary crossing the Midwest.
3 inches, there is sufficient moisture in the lower 6 kft to support convective initiation.
S winds will be gusty today with max gusts exceeding 30 kts over the higher terrain. Winds were light and variable across most of the state, however gusty S winds were felt over the higher terrain of the Ozark and Ouachita Mtns. Today, surface PGF will tighten between high pressure E of AR and low pressure NW of AR. This will result in Srly winds gusting 20- 30 mph, possibly even higher over the higher terrain. On Sunday, vigorous upper level troughing over the Cntrl CONUS will take on a increasingly negative tilt as it ejects to the NE into the Nrn MS Valley region. At the surface, low pressure should located N of the Great Lakes region with a surface cold front extending back to the SW into portions of NW AR and OK.
Northwest flow, as a transient ridge builds over the Northern Rockies, will keep the area breezy, cool, and overcast today.
418 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 (Issued 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022) Today through Sunday: The sfc warm front will move north during the remainder of the morning hours and southern WI will get exposed to the warm sector of the low pressure system that is currently churning over South Dakota. We should largely remain dry today, as most of the forcing for thunderstorm activity will be focused along the sfc cold front to our west.
1053 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Early summer like day is expected across the Bluegrass State underneath upper level ridging and southerly flow at the surface from high of the east. Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere over the southeast CONUS will dominate our weather through Sunday, resulting in warm and dry conditions. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be channeled around the periphery of the ridging, leading to precip potential from the western Gulf Coast northward to a cold frontal boundary crossing the Midwest.
702 AM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front extending from Southern Ohio to Northern West Virginia and Virginia will cause clouds and intermittent light rain this morning before lifting north with a bit of improvement this afternoon. The warm front will bisect PA from northwest to southeast this afternoon, resulting in warm temperatures in the west and cool temperatures in the east. The front will drift to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
Key Messages: - Very strong south winds continue through the day - Storms across central Kansas could impact north central Kansas this morning - Additional storm chances this afternoon/evening with severe storms possible A closed low was ejecting ejecting across the northern and central Plains early this morning with a line of severe storms developing along a cold front across western and central Kansas. Better chances come with the cold front that moves through during the late afternoon and evening.
246 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Latest water vapor loop continuing to show lots of moisture wrapping around the back side of the closed low over the northern plains with a well defined trowal across northern Wyoming and portions of northern Nebraska panhandle. The closed low does appear to be filling in which should begin to cease the conveyor belt of moisture. Due to the closed low slowly filling in, this may tend to keep the gradients higher through much of the evening before slowly diminishing overnight. There is a possibility that the wind speeds may creep up to High Wind Warning criteria in parts of the Pine Ridge and northern panhandle tomorrow morning. We did drop temperatures a few degrees across the snow covered areas tomorrow, but warmer ground temperatures should help melt the snow.
Did opt for a winter weather adv for a few zones in SW SD where some terrain impacts from the Pine Ridge in addition to faster changeover to snow will result in more snow, up to 5 inches possible in localized areas there. As the low slides east of here, still expect some downsloping on the lee of the Black Hills, particularly in the Rapid City and Hermosa foothills, which will limit snow potential for the immediate Rapid City area. Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure centered over southwestern SD. Negatively tilted trough digs into the central plains. On the backside of the low, temperatures are dropping fast, with snow ongoing in northeastern Wyoming.
226 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A warm front bisecting the Commonwealth this afternoon will drift to the east on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expanding farther eastward.
Peak winds have shown an abating trend as pressure gradient relaxes as surface cyclone lifts north. Thunderstorms beginning to develop in north central Kansas into east Central Kansas along dryline that currently is oriented from just east of Lincoln to Pawnee City to Junction City KS and cold front Lincoln to Omaha. As upper low moves across Dakotas, some potential for very light rain or sprinkles across northeast Nebraska. Low level cold advection and weakening surface pressure gradient will lead to a cooler day. Lingering chance of very light rain or sprinkles as northeast Nebraska remains under the influence of upper cyclonic shear side of upper trough.
The cloud cover combined with southerly winds will keep overnight lows in the low 70s along the coast and mid to upper 60s inland. WAA strengthens Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front resulting in near record high minimum temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the area. The aforementioned cold front is currently slowly passing through north Texas.
Deep-layer ridging is centered over the Mid Atlantic coastal region. The ridge will continue to shift east overnight in response to deep troughing over the Upper Plains, and this should allow our dewpoints to also reach the lower 60s in some spots tomorrow, especially for areas in western parts of the state.
228 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Latest water vapor imagery shows ridging over much of the eastern CONUS, with a closed low and associated trough over the Northern Plains and extending into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure was just off the southeast coast, with southerly flow over much of the region. High clouds continue to filter into the TN Valley this afternoon, but temperatures have managed to rise into the lower 80s across the area. Thus, expect overnight lows in the lower 60s. Another warm day is on tap over the TN Valley on Sunday as the axis of an upper ridge continues to push eastward. This will lead to another mild night Sunday night, with lows in the lower 60s once again.
As mentioned in the previous discussion the synoptic pattern over the SE US consists of a rex block with a ridge centered near the SE coast and a low in the northern Caribbean. The overall setup changes little on Sunday with continued easterly flow (albeit slightly weaker) and seasonable temperatures (warmer west coast). There is a wave (probably more accurately a cyclonic shear line) that will pivot westward around the south side of the ridge which along with coastal convergence could provide some focus for showers. The week kicks off with high pressure remaining over the region at the surface allowing for an easterly wind flow to persist off the Atlantic waters.
Meanwhile, a cold front will also begin to move into NW parts of the fa later this evening and move across portions of the fa overnight. The cold front is expected to slowly sag southward into portions of southern OK/north TX Sunday. Behind the dryline, fire weather will continue to be a concern the rest of this afternoon into early evening due to the low RH, gusty winds, and dry vegetation.
1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper longwave trough will continue to shift eastward today. Overnight tonight anticipate overall severe risk to diminish, but some showers and storms will likely linger along and ahead of stalled dryline across the south and advancing cold front to the north.
250 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Models are consistent with each other, and are in good agreement with satellite and radar data with the low lifting northeast out of South Dakota with wrap-around moisture pushing south through Wyoming into the northern Colorado mountains. The sounding this morning indicated the cold air advection over the previous 12 hours through the depth of the column giving us the much cooler temperatures today.
/issued 1024 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ Southerly flow will once again influence the diurnal curve above the normal range with afternoon maximum temperatures expected in the low-to-mid 80s across the Four State Region.
1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Outside of isolated afternoon showers along the ridges each day, the weekend will be mainly dry and warm under high pressure.
High pressure ridging from a high centered over the east coast prevails over the ARKLAMS today and this will continue through tonight.
A cold front moving into the area tonight will maintain shower and storm chances overnight.
Also, adjust some spots in the higher terrain such as Black Mountain that have warmed a bit quicker. Early summer like day is expected across the Bluegrass State underneath upper level ridging and southerly flow at the surface from high of the east. Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere over the southeast CONUS will dominate our weather through Sunday, resulting in warm and dry conditions. Gulf of Mexico moisture will be channeled around the periphery of the ridging, leading to precip potential from the western Gulf Coast northward to a cold frontal boundary crossing the Midwest.
1024 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Southerly flow will once again influence the diurnal curve above the normal range with afternoon maximum temperatures expected in the low-to-mid 80s across the Four State Region.