Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as an upper level ridge strengthens over the southwest. Current temperature trends show current readings are running warmer temperatures at all locations, but especially in the North Bay Valleys where temperatures are still in the mid 60s to around 70.
915 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Low level ridge axis across the southern peninsula this morning. Bermuda Ridge axis over the south FL Peninsula will generate a light to gentle srly breeze over the lcl Atlc.
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A low-amplitude, nearly stationary TROF exists over the north- central CONUS early this morning with a well-depicted MCV located over southwestern MO. TES The quasi-stationary upper TROF pattern over the north-central CONUS will continue into Saturday with what is currently anticipated to be a MCS exiting during the late morning and midday.
/issued 359 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ Upper ridging is over the southcentral and southwest parts of the country with northwest flow over the CWA.
While we may see taller convection, with more CAPE in the hail growth zone, a cooler/more humid environment will also limit the severe weather threat.
At 850 mb, Dewpoints were in the teens C, with the highest noted at KTOP with 18 C. Expect southerly low level flow to increase today as low pressure develops to the west. Expect low pressure to be over north central NE by early afternoon with a warm front curving from the low toward northern IA and a trough/weak cold front extending down into northwest KS. Will have some chance of thunderstorms mentioned on Saturday, but I suspect the main threat of severe will be east and south of our area if the current expected timing of the cold front ends up being correct.
726 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nw Ontario with a mainly zonal pattern across the nrn CONUS. At the surface, a weak trouigh extended into nw MN from low pressure over nw Ontario.
Have removed the low chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. PW values do rise again in response on Saturday and combined with an elongated trough aloft over the area and ample instability, brought scattered thunderstorms back into the forecast. With the lingering trough and instability due to a weaker surface inversion, a few storms may be able to pop Saturday night as well.
855 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A cold front will move southeast toward the area Friday, but will stall out just northwest of the area.
Friday through Saturday Night Northwesterly flow aloft will continue as deep ridging centered over Mexico and southwest portions of the United States remains steady amidst otherwise zonal flow. Rain chances should begin to taper off some as we go into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west and becomes the dominate trend. Otherwise, expect highs to be in the lower 90s each day with lows only dropping into the lower to mid 70s.
601 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 This morning a ridge of high pressure aloft covered much of the Southwest sections of the country and Mexico and extended into East Texas. The remnants of a convection complex moving around the Eastern periphery of this ridge had weakened with the outflow producing only a few showers over parts of Southwest and South Central Arkansas. The upper level ridge will continue to to extend across the Red River Valley and into the Tennessee Valley region into the first half of the weekend keeping rain chances on the low side.
Highs will be mainly in the lower 90s, with some mid 90s possible. Saturday night's lows will be quite muggy, in the low to mid 70s.
Otherwise, it will be breezy across the high plains with west to northwest winds generally between 15 to 25 MPH For Saturday, models show a fast moving upper level trough and associated cold front which will move southeast across Montana and Wyoming in the early morning hours. Temperatures on Saturday will likely be 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to Friday as this cooler airmass moves into the high valleys and high plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunder is possible along and behind the cold front, but do not expect severe thunderstorms.
Isolated showers will also continue as a diffuse mid level trough remains draped across eastern Kentucky. Prior to then, a few showers will be possible this morning as a subtle mid level trough axis remains draped across eastern Kentucky. The best chances for convective initiation will be along the higher terrain of the Appalachians this afternoon, therefore remaining mainly east of far eastern Kentucky.
A weak ridge runs north from the highs Plains of Montana up into Alberta while a trough stretches from northern Idaho into Washington and up the coast of British Columbia. Today: The weak ridge across the area will break down allowing some isolated rain showers to develop across northern most zones this afternoon and evening. The gradient between the weakening ridge and the previously exited low will continue to allow for gusty winds in the afternoon. Tonight into Saturday: With the ridge gone the trough from northern Idaho will move in with pacific moisture.
The current forecast points toward the mountains and SW VA for the higher rain chances today, but the update will sharpen the E-W PoP gradient by lowering chances in the Valley and Plateau.
A major upper level trough was situated across south central Canada, while our CWA remained under the influence of the upper level trough. The rather benign features of today will gradually give way to an amplifying upper level trough on Saturday. The Northland can expect a period of cooler than normal weather the second half of the weekend through nearly the first half of the upcoming week. There will be an area of low pressure over Ontario by Saturday evening. Showers and storms are possible with the passage and in the wake of a cold front.
The combination of the nearly stationary trough and daytime heating will lead to early start to convection today. JAX sounding showed PWAT of about 2 inches and some drier air in the low levels.
After extensive convection yesterday evening, a slightly later onset of initial cloud line convection is expected with alignment near and northeast of the Lower Keys.
508 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Broad upper low continues to drift across southern Canada north of Minnesota with near zonal flow from the Pacific Northwest, across the northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. Models are showing a very weak 700mb trof crossing the area by early afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
a 500mb trough over the eastern United States through the weekend.
/Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ The current upper level pattern consists of a dominant ridge over Mexico and the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS and a weak trough across the southeast. The remnants of two convective complexes can be seen on satellite and RADAR early this morning traveling southeast around the eastern periphery of the ridge. A decision was made to go ahead and issue a heat advisory for the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area where mid and upper 90s high temps combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat indices near 105.
High pressure building over the region Saturday will bring warmer weather and some sunshine.
554 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Weak clipper and cold front system will bring scattered showers.
300 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 An upper level trough is currently pushing east across the region this afternoon. Ahead the trough an area of showers is spreading east across the area. A cold front is currently pushing east across the eastern Ozarks where more in the way of moderate showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder are occurring this afternoon. The trough will continue to spread east across the area tonight with rain ending from west to east late this afternoon into this evening. A cooler air mass is spreading into the area behind the front as temperatures are currently in the middle 40s to the middle 50s this afternoon. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s tonight into Thursday morning. An upper level low will then dig into the southwestern U.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough and cyclonic flow over the western and central CONUS with an axis over the Northern Plains to Southern Plains.
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Light snow or flurries over western Nebraska early this morning are expected to end by sunrise as the upper closed low over the Dakotas shifts east.
Ongoing MVFR ceilings and VCSH will continue over the next few hours in advance of a cold front approaching from northeast TX. The cold front is expected to pass KAEX/KBPT/KLCH by 03Z and KARA/KLFT by 05Z.
Very heavy rainfall likely for this weekend across Arkansas Cold front accompanied by a line of severe TSTMS to continue pushing E through Thursday morning. This front to push into MS and SE TX by during Thursday with negative vorticity advection and cold air advection clearing skies and rainfall from NW to SE through late tonight behind the cold front.
135 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Col between systems gives way to southerly flow today, ahead of a cold front that will weaken as it crosses Thursday night.
1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Yesterday's cold front, currently along a line from Kirksville to Butler MO, has shifted winds to the northwest and is ushering in cooler temperatures. Post-frontal showers, mainly south and east of I-35, are expected to linger for most of the day as the upper-level trough moves through. Thursday evening, on and off rain chances return as a broad upper-level trough begins to deepen and send energy pulses over the area. At the surface, a low pressure system will be taking shape, advecting warmer air and moisture into the area.
Broad upper trough over the western and central portions of North America will continue to provide cool and unstable conditions through Thursday. An upper low over Alberta/western Sask will help kick up daytime showers over central Montana that are expected to dissipate as they move into a drier airmass over eastern Montana. Weak upper ridging will protect the eastern zones from precipitation and in fact may not see much cloudiness. The large upper trough over the western CONUS will shift east and close off across the Central U. Thankfully, we can expect temperatures to become slightly warmer than we have recently experienced.
Then, a warm front will lift northward Thursday night and set the stage for an increase in warm humid conditions in the days ahead.
More scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the cold front on Thursday afternoon, but coverage is highly dependent on the amount of forcing and instability. Cold front will be over the mountains at the beginning of the period with a few lingering showers and thunderstorms over extreme northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia and along the eastern Tennessee and southwest North Carolina mountains.
Initial cold front moved through the area this morning, shifting winds around to the west and northwest.
Cool northwesterly surface winds have moved in across the forecast area as the cold front continues to move eastward across Missouri. Upper trof that brought the front through has additional pieces of energy rotating through its base, with the base essentially extended into the panhandles at this hour. This piece and what is the effective trof axis moves to the east of our area slowly thorough 0z, and will therefore continue to carry some low end rain chances across the eastern counties through the afternoon. The models seem to focus the highest rainfall totals where the lower convergence and upper level divergence overlap.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb trough across the south central United States this afternoon will move eastward tonight and a broad 500mb trough will prevail across the southern United States Thursday into Thurs night. a weak cold front will move through the CWA this evening providing some relief tonight to the record high temperatures across the CWA this afternoon.
This line of storms appears to be located along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a weak cold front that will move east across the Mid-South overnight.
Expect some showers to continue to lift northward during the daytime morning hours with the lower to mid level frontal zone nearby. Temps will be steady or falling as the cold front slides through along and west of the Mississippi River today, while farther east temps may have some time to recover before the front slides through. High pressure does try to build southeastward as the upper trough continues to slide northeast of the region late in the week. Thursday night with a chilly air mass in place should see temps down in the low 30s and possibly 20s, so frost may be a concern.
113 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 High pressure will prevail across the region today and tonight.
Gusty northwest winds will occur behind the dryline/trough moving toward the coast at this time. Cold front will move through the region tonight with winds becoming gusty along the coast from the north-northeast. Models showed this low level wind field gradually decreasing through the afternoon along with advection of cooler air in the low levels. With weak cold air advection in the lower levels, expect high temperatures will fall slightly below 100 degrees out west. It will be as warm or slightly warmer over the southern Coastal Bend as downslope warming helps readings get close to 100 degrees. Will likely need to issue another SCA this afternoon to cover the Gulf waters as winds increase behind the cold front tonight.
1147 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017 After a period of warm weather and the emergence of new spring vegetation across the area, temperatures around freezing are expected again after midnight tonight through the early morning hours on Thursday. With a period of mostly clear skies and light winds after sunset, expect temperatures in the lower to mid 30s overnight with areas of frost developing.
Low pressure aloft will keep conditions unsettled through Thursday.
The cold front lay along a line from near Blevins Arkansas Southwest to near Shreveport Louisiana and Center and Zavalla Texas. Very heavy rainfall likely for this weekend across Arkansas Cold front accompanied by a line of severe TSTMS to continue pushing E through Thursday morning. This front to push into MS and SE TX by during Thursday with negative vorticity advection and cold air advection clearing skies and rainfall from NW to SE through late tonight behind the cold front.
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Light SHRAs with the pre-frontal trof have moved off the coast at present. and keeping an eye to our N/NE with the development at/ along the cold front itself. Otherwise, quite a bit of haze lingering across the FA in the wake of the pre-frontal trof with some spots of MVFR CIGS.
257 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 A sharp H300 meridional trough centered over the central CONUS will progress E/NE over the next 24 hours with a more zonal flow upper level pattern settling in across the base of the broad upper trough by tomorrow morning. At the surface, a N-S elongated ridge axis will build east across eastern Kansas by tomorrow morning, with light winds and temperatures dropping into the low 30s north to mid/upper 30s south.
The mixing of very dry air across all counties along and west of the I-35 corridor will bring another morning of cooler than normal conditions for Thursday.
316 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 A wet night is on tap across central and southeast Illinois as periods of showers and thunderstorms accompany a slow moving cold front and upper-level energy tracking along the boundary. Aside from a low risk of showers in the morning, Thursday should end up a mostly dry day as weak high pressure builds across the area. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler in many areas than today, with peak readings mainly around 60 degrees. The next stronger piece of upper-level energy will amplify the broad/shallow troffing across the lower 48 states to start the period.
Low pressure over eastern Iowa with a cold front extending across the middle Mississippi valley to Texas will move east across Indiana later tonight and early Thursday bringing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Brief drying will occur late Thursday and Thursday night as weak ridge of high pressure briefly builds in.
Tonight through Thursday: Latest satellite imagery showed an upper trough moving through the plains. On the surface a front was observed across East Texas into West Arkansas with deepening low pressure across Northeast Texas. The atmosphere was rather capped across the region at mid afternoon with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. On Thursday high pressure will build across the ArkLaMiss from the west. As far as temperatures are concern lows tonight will range from the lower 50s west to the lower 60s southeast. Highs on Thursday will range from the middle 70s north to the lower 80s southeast.
302 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Large upper-level trough continues to work through the central U. Main issue with this afternoon's package revolves around possible frost development early Thursday morning as high pressure gradually builds into the region.
621 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly drift northeastward tonight into early Thursday.
Warmer temperatures are expected through the end of the week. 64 channel shows most of the high clouds are in our easternmost areas and points east. One of those days where northwestern PA will be warmer than our southeastern areas. The front is moving into a strong ridge and it is a bit moisture starved.
235 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Low pressure east of New Jersey will slowly move away from the coast. A cold front will approach the region and weaken over the area Thursday night.
A surface cold front has pushed into parts of western Illinois, including far western portions of the forecast area. Expect these trends to last until late afternoon when the mean upper-level trof, currently tracking east across the Plains, pivots to a more northeast track toward the forecast area. High-res short-range models lift the Missouri convection to the northeast across areas mainly along and west of the Illinois River through about 9-10 am, before the next round begins moving in from the southwest toward midday as the cold front starts to move into the forecast area.
Although IA will be thoroughly embedded in the broad mean trough, a subtle short wave ridge through the MO Valley may give us a brief glimpse of sun Thursday before the forecast turns. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ The overall pattern will have changed little heading into the later periods with strong Pacific NW jet continuing to feed short waves into the base of the mean trough.
Storm has formed along an advancing cold front but there is not much cumulus development farther down the front towards the College Station area. Strongest lift is well north of the area associated with an upper level low over north Texas. Cold front should push through tonight allowing for a cool start to the day tomorrow after most of the area reaching the upper 80s today and even low 90s like College Station.
Reports indicate between 1 and 3 inches of snow has fallen so far with the highest report of 2. Otherwise, we did increase the mention of light freezing rain on the northwest side of the precipitation shield from Jamestown to Ashley this morning based on early DOT reports and a lack of deep- layer saturation into the ice crystal production zone in forecast soundings on the fringe of the stronger synoptic-scale forcing. First, freezing rain is possible early this morning before the column becomes completely saturated. Second, as temperatures rise this afternoon snow may mix with rain and surface temperatures may rise briefly above freezing.
Deep layer ridging will prevail this afternoon, with highs climbing into the middle 80s and no rain.
204 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Expect increasing clouds and the chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the forecast area tonight into Thursday.
A fast moving cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions during the day on Thursday. With precipitation and extensive expected to spread across the area tomorrow, temperatures will not be able to warm nearly as much as they have the past couple of days, but we should still highs max out in the low to mid 70s, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year.
A surface cold front is expected to cross into the Upper snake Plain around midnight tonight. Temperatures war during the day into the lower to middle 40s with snow turning to slush.
145 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Major pattern change underway as an area of deep low pressure continues to track northeast through WI. Temperatures as of 1 pm this afternoon ranged from the upper 30s across southeast MN to the lower 60s across central WI. Current radar showed bulk of precipitation associated with this low pushed into northeast WI. As temperatures fall into the lower 30s from southeast MN into north central WI, there could be some light icing from the drizzle on elevated/exposed objects such as trees and wires. Clearing looks to take place across the majority of the area Thursday night as the low pulls farther northeast into Canada and highs pressure builds in from the Northern Plains.
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 There is an upper trough centered over the central part of the country. A cold front is pushing south into the area allowing for a brief relief from the 90 degree temperatures. An extension of the previous upper trough will pass over the area on Thursday allowing for higher winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
Generally quiet weather is expected overnight as upper ridge gradually breaks down ahead of trough exiting the plains.
Fairly deep upper level trough was moving east out of the High Plains early this afternoon. A broad fetch of northwesterly flow aloft extended from the trough back over the northern Rockies and northeast Pacific. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the western Dakotas into Kansas. The models show a warm front lifting eastward into western Kansas during the day. The lower levels should mix out by afternoon with dewpoints back into the lower 40s.
402 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Weakening low pressure off the New Jersey coast will slowly drift northeastward tonight into early Thursday.
Isentropic lift begins to generate the highest qpf area from Sheridan County northwestward through Yellowstone county by Thursday afternoon.
Main forecast concern centers around near or below freezing temperatures overnight as we slide a little deeper into the growing season. Otherwise, a slow warm-up into the mid to upper 50s is expected Thursday as high pressure remains over the area.
/issued 439 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/ Sharp upper level low pressure trough over northeast New Mexico near Logan will move southeast across the Texas Panhandle and Childress late this morning. Dry air in the lowest 10 thousand feet will limit shower efficiency, but the upper trough will at least bring a chance for light showers through the morning via top-down moistening favoring northern areas. A cold front with northerly winds has been somewhat masked by the early morning showers but will show better around daybreak bringing a period of solid northerly winds with decent surface pressure rises and cold advection. RMcQueen Consensus for strong surface westerlies on Thursday is pretty good as the base of an upper level trough pivots out of the southern Rockies during the day, shifting toward the Central Plains by early evening.