Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
701 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND REMAINS SOUTH OF IA. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SAT PIX AND AND RADAR SHOW A NICELY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF TO THIRD OF IA THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE NORTH. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND IS PAST US BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS.
DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL.
THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST. WE HAVE A SECONDARY UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND LIFTING NE THAT HAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS FOR KLFK. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY NEXT CYCLE WITH GUSTY SW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY.
SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
WARM FRONT SET TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TONIGHT. ISO-SCT STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT PASSES. LOWER CIGS WILL GO UP IN WARM SECTOR BUT THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES. SHWRS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP WITH COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AS WELL. A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THIS WAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/ THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WARM US INTO THE LOW 80S. WARM FRONT SET TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSING LATE TONIGHT. ISO-SCT STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT PASSES. LOWER CIGS WILL GO UP IN WARM SECTOR BUT THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES. SHWRS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP WITH COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AS WELL.
A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over northeastern Kansas early this morning. As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the area. Temperatures Sunday will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.
707 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL TODAY. THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO) SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS.
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EAST TODAY AND PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THIS WAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
/ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA TODAY. AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
1022 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
722 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AT THE MOMENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. AS SUCH, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIP WRAP AROUND THIS LOW INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 90S FROM THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. WIND PROFILE IS INDICATING MORE NORTHERLY WINDS ABOVE 3K FEET THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
/ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS TX CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AND WILL KEEP US HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
201 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
1006 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN U.
126 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL PULL THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT AT THE SHOWERS BEING MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
Have updated the precip trends in our area for this afternoon, keeping the higher POPs across the northeast half of the area with only minor adjustments to temperatures at this time for this afternoon. southerly winds will once again bring unseasonably warm air into the area this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s. 00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM TEXAS TO IL THROUGH THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WAVE A FEW MORE DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY WITH SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES GRADUALLY ENDING.
74 INCHES WHICH IS THE HIGHEST OBSERVED ON THIS DATE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.
143 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DOT THE SKIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS LOOKING ON TRACK AS WE'RE EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN. SO WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD.
WITH 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 500 MB RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO PREVAIL. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMUP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE SETS ARE COMING IN A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MODEL SETS AS THE NAM HIGH TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE BIT UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING RECENT TEMP TRENDS.
The upper level ridge over the region will continue the summer like weather across the Ozarks today and through tonight. In all, the Labor Day weekend looks to remain warm and humid with highs around 90 degrees today and overnight lows remaining in the lower 70s for most of the area.
219 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 RIDGE ALOFT HOLDING TRUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LONG WAVE/SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS A REASON FOR THE LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST AND THE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS EASTERN U. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM SNEAK DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS. RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
Satellite imagery shows the upper trough lifting out to the northeast with subsidence and northwesterly flow in its wake working into NorCal. Gradually warmer and drier conditions are expected the next several days with lingering northerly pressure gradient resulting in some breezes, mainly nights and mornings for the north end of the valley. Water vapor imagery showing upper low pushing into the Great Basin this morning with progressing upper ridge offshore. At the surface, high pressure from the Eastern Pacific is building through Oregon into the Great Basin.
824 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOLY FILL AND LOSE CHARACTER.
256 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW ANY MORNING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AREAWIDE.
NOW IN A SMALL HOOP NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE LARGER SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK AROUND SALT LAKE CITY AND JUST CREEPING EASTWARD. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW GOES MORE WESTERLY AND THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
/ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ Temperatures running a degree or two warmer than those observed 24 hours ago.
TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S AND WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SETTLED A BIT MORE BACK TO THE WEST. /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
HUFFMAN UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY.
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF THE WEEK.
302 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW ANY MORNING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AREAWIDE.
12 UTC NAM NEST AND 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM RUNS ALL SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROPAGATING OUT OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS A BIT HIGHER TODAY AND THE RIDGE A BIT STRONGER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST.
325 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
1253 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
248 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 No change in the very warm and humid late summer weather through Sunday as the upper level high pressure ridge remains stretched across the region. May see convection edge toward the area late Sunday night as the upper ridge begins to break down and a front sags southward. The upper level ridge currently over the central U.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
At the surface, a weak pressure pattern exists over the Tri-State region, with a developing wedge front across north-central AL/GA and southeast SC, leading high pressure building south into the Southeast.
1023 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK OR LATE IN THE WEEK. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
322 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW ANY MORNING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AREAWIDE.
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER OR. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSED THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PROGGING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ID AND MT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
207 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DOT THE SKIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ridging aloft will keep it hot/humid with above normal temps/dew points through the Holiday weekend continuing. By Labor Day, some energy aloft is approaching the Great Lakes and dampening the arc of the upper ridge somewhat at least. By then, the dominant mid/upper ridge over our region should have been mostly replaced by increasingly cyclonic flow with periodic embedded shrtwv energy moving through. The deterministic GEM shows a deeper low pressure system over the Great Lakes than the GFS/ECMWF do, dragging a sfc cold front through our region by mid week. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep all sites dry through the period.
NOT A BAD WAY TO START OFF A LABOR DAY WEEKEND! A BROAD RIDGE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A WEDGE FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY REACHING THE LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
1034 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 Temperatures running a degree or two warmer than those observed 24 hours ago.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH WESTERLY FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FARTHER EAST AND THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGES SOUTH TO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
A BROAD AND LAYERED TROUGH WILL BE THE MAJOR FEATURE FOR THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THROUGH THE GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE THE SURFACE WEAKNESS LOSES DEFINITION NEARBY. RIDGING SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING THE PROFILE TO ALIGN MORE SEASONALLY.
TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S AND WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SETTLED A BIT MORE BACK TO THE WEST.
231 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SO IT APPEARS THAT THE VORTEX WILL LINGER FOR THE DAY BEFORE BEING SHEARED APART OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PESKY CUTOFF LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES.
TWO MORE VERY WARM AND HUMID DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SO IT APPEARS THAT THE VORTEX WILL LINGER FOR THE DAY BEFORE BEING SHEARED APART OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PESKY CUTOFF LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES.
COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING TO OUR NORTH WAS DRIVING A LINE OF SHOWERS INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS /WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 5500-6000 FEET/ WERE OCCURRING IN THE NORTH /FROM BAKER CITY TO MCCALL/ NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND END THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
124 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK OR LATE IN THE WEEK. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY AT MOST PLACES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN WA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT CROSSES THROUGH WESTERN WA. SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON LABOR DAY FOR DRY WEATHER. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.
908 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.