Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low was along the OR/ID border this morning with widespread pcpn on the northeast, north, and northwest flanks, and fewer showers to the south. The low is forecast to move slowly ese along the ID/NV border today and tonight and the main pcpn will wrap around it. The air is already too cold in the lower levels to support thunderstorms, except possibly this afternoon along the ID/NV border just east of the approaching upper low.
802 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
521 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
Moisture has been surging northward since last night as a ridge across the western Atlantic builds to the west across the Sunshine State and Florida Keys. Most of this activity has somehow managed to only graze the Lower Keys and stayed out over the surrounding waters. There is still some dry air to contend with in the lower levels, as noted in our delayed balloon launch this morning. Lastly, as a ridge across the western Atlantic continues to build westward this evening, breezes will gradually freshen from the southeast.
957 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Lighter low level flow exists across the area today, with a weak inverted trough just off the coast that will fade through the day. Temps will be near to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s at the coast and low 90s inland, with peak heat index values in the low to mid 90s.
Still expecting high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 80s in most spots this afternoon. Temperatures via the KY Mesonet were generally in the low-mid 50s. For today, high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep skies mostly sunny with slightly warmer conditions. Temperatures will exhibit a quick rise this morning and top out in the lower 80s for afternoon highs. Look for lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The western US will be under a large upper trough. On the eastern side of the trough, near the SD/MD border, a low pressure system will cause the near surface pressure gradient to begin tightening over the Lower Ohio Valley, resulting in southern flow over central Kentucky and southern Indiana.
A weak upper level low will remain in place over the vicinity of the western FL panhandle/southern AL/ northern Gulf today and tonight before gradually weakening on Monday. The upper level low should dissipate on Monday and our area will become located along the southwestern periphery of upper ridging centered over the eastern states. High temperatures today are forecast to range in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, and perhaps a few degrees warmer in the upper 80s to lower 90s over inland areas by Monday. Lows tonight should range in the mid to upper 60s over inland locations and in the lower 70s along the immediate coast.
627 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 (Today through Monday) The mid to upper level subtropical ridge will remain over Texas through the short term period. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place across South Central Texas.
A well defined low pressure system currently moving through central Oregon will shift into southern Idaho today. Abundant wrap around precipitation will develop on the northern side of this low, bringing widespread precipitation for areas along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor in western Montana and north central Idaho later today into tonight. The heaviest precipitation is expected in the higher terrain of north central Idaho, southwest Montana and Lemhi County, where precipitation will likely range between 0. Accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are likely above 6500 feet, with 12 to 18 inches possible in the highest terrain of Lemhi County.
409 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 A low pressure trough currently extends across central South Dakota and will gradually shift east through the afternoon. Southerly flow and moisture return out ahead of this trough will be the focus of an area of instability marked by ML CAPE values of 1000-2500 J/KG. A closed upper level low will quickly develop out of the Rockies and track across the northern plains. This will all make a rapid progression northeast and the result will be enhanced (breezy) westerly low level flow bringing in drier and cooler air.
Forecast looks to be on track with a pleasant Sunday underway with broad ridging aloft. /Issued 345 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022/ Another nice day expected as the region remains under high pressure at both the surface and aloft. Picking up the extended on Monday night, area remains under a broad upper ridging with some low end Chance to Slight Chane PoPs dying off after sunset in SE GA.
/issued 306 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure is expected to remain the dominant weather force over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. This system will reign despite the fact that its amplitude will be suppressed as a broad 500 mb trough with embedded mid-level lows pushes farther east into the western United States. Surface-wise, thermal low pressure over Mexico will interact more intensely with high pressure situated over the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry and warm conditions today as high pressure remains in place across the region. Southerly flow and mostly clear skies will help warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s across Central Indiana. Expect milder temperatures overnight as southerly flow increases dewpoints into the low 60s. The dry and warm pattern will continue on Monday with broad upper ridging across Central Indiana. Persistent southerly flow along with mostly sunny skies will warm temperatures into the upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
638 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 A ridge of high pressure will bring gorgeous weather today and Memorial Day. Ridge stays in place through the first half of the week with hot temperatures across the area. A ridge will slowly build into the area from the south, but quasi- geostrophic flow overhead today will allow for seasonable temperatures to remain for one more day. High pressure really amplifies into the area overnight, bringing WAA from the SW. The ridge continues to build into the area on Memorial Day, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, with valleys topping out at 90. High pressure just offshore will continue to pump in a warmer airmass and some additional moisture as well.
125 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Abundant sunshine along with warming temperatures and comfortable humidity will highlight the rest of this holiday weekend as high pressure overhead drifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast by Monday. Upper level ridge will remain centered over the Central Appalachians Monday and will ensure dry weather for Memorial Day.
1239 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Key Messages: - Showers and storms possible tonight - Warm, gusty Monday with storms possible Monday night - Cooler temperatures mid to late week TODAY AND TONIGHT: A couple of chances at some rain coming up. The first will be this morning as the CAMS have been showing some activity developing in the low level moisture transport axis over northern Iowa before sunrise and then translating northeast into the area.
1126 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Dry high pressure will remain over our region into the middle of the week, with above normal temperatures expected.
157 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure has moved into the North Country today and will persist through Memorial Day. The dry weather will continue for Memorial Day with even warmer temperatures. No precipitation is expected tonight and Monday as an upper level ridge begins to amplify a bit up into our region. As a result any precipitation coming over the top of the ridge would stay to our north and east and thus have kept the forecast dry for Monday, where data the past couple of days had suggested the potential for a shower or two in the northwest flow aloft. With the upper ridge over the area and more sunshine, high temperatures will be even warmer than today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
This will allow temps to be roughly 5 degrees cooler on average across the FA leaving highs still in the 90s to around 100. Winds will begin to shift from the west back to the south tomorrow afternoon in response to a developing surface lee trough. Mid-level troughing will remain in place across the Western U.
231 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure will dominate over the Mid-Atlantic region through Memorial Day, sliding just offshore through the middle of the workweek.
132 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Dry high pressure will remain over our region into the middle of the week, with above normal temperatures expected.
341 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 A ridge of high pressure will bring gorgeous weather through the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend. High pressure ridge will stay in place through the first half of the week with increasing temperatures across the area.
This Afternoon and Tonight: Broad upper troughing will encompass much of the west with a cyclonic flow regime aloft. In its wake subtropical ridging will flex poleward across the eastern Pacific with lower pressures from SoCal through the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. Otherwise look for near to slightly below average temperatures following yesterday's cold frontal passage. Highs this afternoon should range from the mid to upper 70s for the warmer inland valleys, to the mid 60s to around 70 near the coasts and bays, to the upper 50s along the immediate shoreline.
Core of upper level ridge will drift a little closer to us, resulting in warmer temps for Memorial Day compared to today as highs approach 90 degrees in some locations.
347 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. This area of high pressure then moves offshore Memorial Day and becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week. High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is building aloft. Temperatures this afternoon range from the 70s to near 80F along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland. The high slowly moves offshore tonight, but does remain near the coast through early Monday morning.
In the upper levels, a very amplified pattern is present, as broad ridging sits across the Eastern CONUS, while troughing across the west. A closed low and several waves will traverse through the flow to our northwest, but the 5H 589 dam high will stand firm. At the surface, high pressure sits across the Carolinas, bringing a warm and pleasant Memorial Day. With the sunshine and warmer temps seen through today, expect things to dry out a bit so lesser fog formation compared to last night is anticipated. Valleys will range from the mid and upper 50s for lows tonight, with ridges bottoming out in the lower 60s.
(Tonight) A very benign pattern continues today as a stacked ridge over the Carolinas establishes southerly flow across portions of the Southeast, as evidenced by dew points rising into the low to mid 60s. Scattered cloud cover and a southerly breeze 5-10 mph make for a pleasant afternoon as ambient temperatures reach the low to mid 80s.
Rain-free weather will continue to be the highlight through today and much of the short-term period with ample amounts of dry air still in place across much of the Southeast.
Record high temperatures are in the low to mid 90s, which is where we are expecting high temperatures to top out at. Dewpoint temperatures should be in the low to mid 60s, so it will feel slightly humid outside in order to accentuate the hot conditions.
250 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022 Satellite imagery/analysis shows upper low has moved into southern Idaho while broad troffing continues over the PacNW and northern Rockies. This upper low will track across Wyoming tonight creating a deep upslope flow underneath a strong diffluent flow aloft, thus providing significant upward motion over our region. The upslope will focus the most significant precipitation over the north/east facing slopes of our mountains and foothills, but the lower elevations should see decent rainfall as well. and spread to the higher elevations of the Big Horns tonight into Monday as well. The upper low will reach the Dakotas by late Monday with the nature of the precipitation becoming more scattered shower variety rather than predominant areas of rainfall and heavy mountain snow.
Strengthening upper ridge over the southeast United States producing a strong mid-level capping inversion (around 700mb) inhibiting convective development. Surface ridging into the southern Appalachians will keep winds generally less 10kts. Surface ridging into the southern Appalachians will keep winds generally less than 10kts throughout the forecast.
High temperatures on Monday may ease a degree or two as the low-level thermal ridge temporarily weakens across the region. Gusty south to southeast winds and plenty of moisture in the low-levels will lead to periods of early morning low clouds across most of the region.
159 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022 Water vapor shows upper low taking shape near the ID/UT border with distinct short wave ejecting through the Central Rockies and short wave ridge over the Northern Plains. Convection is firing from CO into eastern WY near developing low pressure, with some strikes already across southern Campbell county early this afternoon where MLCAPE has risen to about 250J/kg. Upper low shifts across southern WY tonight, and into the NE panhandle Monday morning and central SD by the afternoon.
419 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure will prevail most of this week. A cold front may approach the area later in the week and could bring some impacts to the region.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) Per continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions should continue to prevail through Monday night.
/Issued 1119 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ With a storm track well removed from North Texas, we'll remain under the influence of ridging centered off to our east through Monday. Highs on Monday will again climb into the low/mid 90s after some morning cloud cover scatters.
1251 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Weak high pressure builds in today.
134 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure will guarantee FANTASTIC weather across the region today.
Much higher dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s already over SE TX, with mid to upper 60s across C and S LA. Temperatures in the lower to mid 80s expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon.
140 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure across the region through midweek with above normal temperatures.
138 PM PDT Sun May 29 2022 A warming trend will begin on Memorial Day as high pressure builds over the forecast area.
1142 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure will guarantee FANTASTIC weather across the region today.
1153 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Abundant sunshine along with warming temperatures and comfortable humidity will highlight the rest of this holiday weekend as high pressure overhead drifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast by Monday. We'll start the day with temps running from the low to mid 40s throughout the perennial cold spots up north, to the upper 50s and low 60s in the southeast. Upper level ridge building over the Great Lakes today and eventually becoming centered over the Central Appalachians Monday will ensure dry weather today and for practically the entire area Monday.
203 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure building into the region will result in southerly flow the rest of today through Monday. Gusts this afternoon will peak around 20 knots, relax a bit tonight before becoming gusty again Monday afternoon with gusts into the lower 20 knot range. Denser cloud cover will move over MBS tonight due to the warm front nearby, but bases around 15kft should deny any raindrops from getting close to the ground. A pacific jet moving inland along west coast this morning will lead to deepening of the western CONUS trough throughout today. This will result in downstream amplification of a mid/upper level ridge over the Midwest/Great Lakes and allow warm advection to ramp up through today.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Surface observations are showing a warm front now extending north and west along a line from southeast Louisiana through Shreveport, LA and into far northeast Texas. Upper air analysis from this afternoon continues to show ridging across the southeast CONUS with troughing over the western CONUS. Temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable normals through Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight, and a few degrees warmer for Monday night.
A stray shower possible area-wide, especially across the higher terrain. Discussion: Main weather features through Monday are building upper ridge helping to suppress convection and persistent surface ridging. For Tonight, surface ridging will remain across the southern Appalachians producing calm/light winds. For Memorial Day, even though upper ridge builds into the region boundary layer moisture gradually increasing with PWs up to 1. Building upper ridge will allow temperatures to warm a couple more degrees producing a very warm day.
1233 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
A relatively dry and windy pattern will continue during the period despite a prevailing increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains downstream of a broad scale trough shifting eastward into the Colorado Rockies tonight, then lifting northeast into the Dakotas Monday. Well above normal temperatures are likely across central and much of southwest Kansas tonight as prevailing south-southwesterlies reinforce a warmer air mass stretched across the region. Thunderstorm chances remain for an extremely small portion of the forecast area in south central Kansas Monday evening as a strong closed low lifting northeast into the Dakotas ushers an attendant cold front southeastward through western Kansas.
1156 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 (Rest of Today) Latest model guidance suggests that the TN Valley will remain within a region of weak steering currents today, between a 500-mb high centered across eastern portions of NC/SC and a weak upper low over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This should translate to sensible weather conditions comparable to yesterday, although mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies and a diurnal increase in south- southeasterly winds will promote slightly warmer afternoon temperatures today.
Freezing levels will hover around 5000 feet and widespread terrain obscurations will continue as showers persist throughout the day causing MVFR conditions, generally north of the California State line.
101 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Abundant sunshine along with warming temperatures and comfortable humidity will highlight the rest of this holiday weekend as high pressure overhead drifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast by Monday. Upper level ridge will remain centered over the Central Appalachians Monday and will ensure dry weather for Memorial Day.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ With a storm track well removed from North Texas, we'll remain under the influence of ridging centered off to our east through Monday. Highs on Monday will again climb into the low/mid 90s after some morning cloud cover scatters.
1120 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure will guarantee FANTASTIC weather across the region today.
Upper low is working through the southeast Idaho this afternoon. Additional snowfall in some of these areas could be in the 5 to 10 inch range with higher amounts likely on the higher peaks of the central mountains. As the low moves south into Utah, we'll see widespread precipitation follow the low. Isolated thunder is possible under the low, but the most likely place for thunder is across the southeast highlands where there are a few breaks in the clouds.
Looking at low-level WAA to bring warmer temps and gusty southerly winds to southern WI today. Even with the lingering cloud cover from the dissipating activity upstream, highs still are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s, but we'll have to contend with gusts to 35 mph and some pesky mid to high lvl clouds in the WAA regime. Memorial Day will repeat the windy conditions with warmer highs in the upper 80s, and less cloud cover as high pressure over the eastern US retrogrades slightly into the Upper Great Lakes.
Elsewhere, instability showers have developed, mainly over the higher terrain.
Warm advection on the increase today and temperatures should quickly warm into the lower 90s this afternoon, peaking at 92 to 97 inland.
A weak upper level low will remain in place over the vicinity of the western FL panhandle and southern AL today and tonight before gradually weakening on Monday. The upper level low should dissipate on Monday and our area will become located along the southwestern periphery of upper ridging centered over the eastern states.
However, showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase late this week as the high breaks down and a cold front approaches the area. Latest surface analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary offshore, while broad high pressure lingers near the WV/VA border. Highs in the mid 80s along the coast, with inland areas likely kissing the lower 90s. High pressure surface-aloft will dominate through the period. Temps will run on the high side of climatology, with highs reaching the lower 90s away from the beaches.
Temperatures for the most part in the lower to mid 80s with the exception being in the Middle Keys where temperatures hit near 90 degrees earlier due a little more sunshine. This increase in rain and thunder coverage is thanks to an influx of moisture from the NW Caribbean Sea, which in turn is thanks to a building ridge. Said ridge is acorss the western Atlantic and building back westward across Florida and the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, there's an upper level low that has become cut-off from the main flow. Moisture will continue to surge up into the area as the ridge holds in place. Meanwhile, the upper level low will continue to meander in a quasi-stationary position over FL/GA and the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
123 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
Some of the high-res guidance indicating it could start as early as 08z. Warm advection on the increase today and temperatures should quickly warm into the lower 90s this afternoon, peaking at 92 to 97 inland.
318 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Broad ridging aloft looks to dominate the near term and should stay mainly convection free this afternoon/evening as deep layer moisture is rather limited. For Monday, the upper ridge pushes a bit more northward allowing for some increased Atlantic moisture to nose into mainly central GA and therefore have some slight to low end chance pops for diurnally enhanced shower/thunderstorm potential.
a trough of low pressure extended northeast into south central Nebraska. This trough of low pressure has helped to keep winds fairly light across the local area today. dewpoints have remained in the lower to mid 60s. expect a strong low level jet to develop across the area and for the focus of the convection to shift north and away from the local area as a deepening upper level low to our west swings north and across Nebraska on Monday. As this low lifts north over the state. expect a cold front to slip east across the local area and be the focus for thunderstorm development Monday afternoon/evening. Behind the initial cold front Monday.
Freezing levels will hover around 5000 feet and widespread mountain obscuration will continue as showers persist throughout the day causing MVFR conditions, generally north of the California State line.
357 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. This area of high pressure then moves offshore Memorial Day and becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week. High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is building aloft. Temperatures this afternoon range from the 70s to near 80F along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland. The high slowly moves offshore tonight, but does remain near the coast through early Monday morning.