Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Between the cloud cover, cooler air and snow on the ground, temperatures have struggled to climb today and average in the mid 20s to low 30s this aftn. The brunt of the snowfall with this system will remain well to our south and west across western/southwest KS, however some of the high resolution models clip our far southwest KS counties with a little snowfall or flurries. Also tonight have maintained the potential for patchy fog development give recent moisture/light winds although models are hit and miss on potential development with the NAM/HRRR the most aggressive with the lowest visibilities across south central Nebraska, mainly west of Highway 281. with readings holding several degrees cooler over snowpack. then an upper disturbance crossing the northern plains will send some cooler air south across our region heading into Sunday night.
427 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed the second of short wave troughs moving into the central Rockies. Light snow will become more widespread later this afternoon and linger through this evening before tapering off from northwest to southeast as the short wave trough exits the CWA overnight. Snow accumulations have been trending lower with track of the upper low further south.
221 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed the second of short wave troughs moving into the central Rockies. Light snow will become more widespread later this afternoon and linger through this evening before tapering off from northwest to southeast as the short wave trough exits the CWA overnight. Snow accumulations have been trending lower with track of the upper low further south.
226 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 Upper level analysis has large trof over the north central CONUS with weak closed low over Wyoming. Weak upper low over Wyoming will continue to the southeast with area remaining under light northwest flow aloft. Northwest flow aloft continues with some weak ridging expected across the central Rockies.
414 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 Upper level analysis has large trof over the north central CONUS with weak closed low over Wyoming. Weak upper low over Wyoming will continue to the southeast with area remaining under light northwest flow aloft. Northwest flow aloft continues with some weak ridging expected across the central Rockies.
706 PM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 A cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region tonight and Sunday. A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to parts of the area Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build in from the west through the day on Sunday. Some low level CAA will persist into the morning before the low level flow begins to slowly back through the afternoon. Would expect any snow accumulation to be minor with air temps remaining above freezing and the ground still warm.
Between these systems, cloud cover blanketed the region which, combined with northwesterly surface winds, kept temperatures today fairly steady with highs only reaching into the low/mid 30s.
Road conditions have improved considerably as temperatures have rebounded at or a bit above freezing and the precipitation has tapered off largely to just a few flurries and pockets of light snow. Will continue to see some flurries and pockets of light snow (especially south) into this evening before the lingering mid level trough passes. A few low amplitude waves may be shuttled down across the region at times, but in the absence of any further interaction in jet branches not being shown, surface ridging and limited moisture look to preclude any measurable precipitation.
954 PM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 A cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region tonight and Sunday. A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to parts of the area Sunday night. Cooler air will filter into the forecast area through the night as another trough swings around retreating low pressure in southeastern Ontario. Weak high pressure will build in from the west through the day on Sunday. Some low level CAA will persist into the morning before the low level flow begins to slowly back through the afternoon. Would expect any snow accumulation to be minor with air temps remaining above freezing and the ground still warm.
The first half of the upcoming week will see highs only in the lower to mid 30s. Water vapor imagery reveals upper low centered over Michigan and lifting northeast while surface obs show a weak frontal trough stretching southwest across central Illinois near the I-57 corridor this afternoon. Behind this wave, ridging will build in aloft and expect dry weather to prevail through the remainder of tonight and tomorrow. Low pressure will move across the Tennessee Valley Sunday evening and overnight and the northern edge of the precip shield may extend into portions of SE IL south of the I-70 corridor.
912 PM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 Scattered rain showers will clear out tonight after a cold front passage.
However, as the trough axis continues to push south/east into the forecast area and near-surface winds transition toward the northwest, near- surface conditions have moistened allowing for at least some of the anticipated precipitation to reach the ground. The trough axis is expected to move through the forecast area this evening. Overnight, strong subsidence moves over in the wake of trough. So, don't expect lingering showers to hang on too long tonight - even in the high elevations - as this system moves out to the east. The next shift will need to decide on potentially ending early some of the lower elevation zones across the north/west in addition to the high elevation advisories closer to midnight.
Activity will eventually coalesce into a squall line during the afternoon along the leading edge of a cold front. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL/ An area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region with the trailing edge of the associated cold front extending over southeast Louisiana. High pressure briefly builds into the area later today before the next weather system moves through on Sunday afternoon. The next area of low pressure develops along the boundary as it lifts northward on Sunday afternoon.
A cold front divides Middle Tennessee almost evenly in half at this hour.
536 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 Plenty of cloud cover persists this evening and overnight as the region sits under a broad longwave trough. A dry cold front moves through on Sunday. This feature will usher in a cooler and drier air mass, but the enhanced mixing ahead of the Canadian air should allow temperatures to reach above normal for one more consecutive day.
The low pressure system that tracked further south negating our chance of widespread winter weather for the weekend continues its track to the eastern seaboard. The higher terrain could see 1-2 inches depending on how long these winds persist over the Lake.
Upper-level analysis charts show an upper-level trough upstream over WY and into UT. Rain showers will cover most of the area by the afternoon and evening hours Sunday as the trough moves through the area. We'll see a break in the wet weather for a couple of days to kick off the workweek as a ridge develops over the southeast. Temperatures will be below average with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20 but we will see plenty of sunshine as high pressure takes over for a short period of time.
Currently in a break between the warm front that moved through this morning and the cold front which is due to move into the region late tonight and Sunday morning.
537 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 (This evening through Sunday) A warm front will lift north and east across the southern half of West Central Texas after midnight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s across the Big Country to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Temperatures across the southern half of the area will slowly increase after midnight, reaching the low 50s by daybreak. An upper level low will track across the South Plains on Sunday. This will send a cold front through West Central Texas Sunday morning. In addition, light showers are possible across the Big Country and eastern portions of the forecast area, as the trough tracks to our north.
The first half of the upcoming week will see highs only in the lower to mid 30s. Latest surface analysis shows low pressure over southeastern Ontario with a cold front extending southward into the Appalachians. A trailing trough axis is noted across central Illinois from near Danville to Taylorville. Water vapor imagery reveals upper low centered over Michigan and lifting northeast while surface obs show a weak frontal trough stretching southwest across central Illinois near the I-57 corridor this afternoon. Behind this wave, ridging will build in aloft and expect dry weather to prevail through the remainder of tonight and tomorrow. Low pressure will move across the Tennessee Valley Sunday evening and overnight and the northern edge of the precip shield may extend into portions of SE IL south of the I-70 corridor.
A trailing cold front now approaching PTK will result in some brief showers as it slowly tracks across metro Detroit this evening. The cold front now advancing toward PTK should pass through metro between 01 and 02Z, resulting in a wind shift to the northwest. Scattered showers along a cold front trailing the exiting low pressure system will end during the evening. A few rumbles of thunder will also remain possible within the warm sector in advance of this cold front and south of the warm front currently lifting north through the area with the low pressure. Mild temperatures in the 40s/50s in most areas early in the evening will edge down with the passage of this cold front this evening to the ultimate lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s late tonight/early Sunday morning.
Sunny skies Sunday will help boost temperatures a few degrees, but with H85 temps in the -3 to -7C range probably not much warmer than the mid to upper 30s.
High pressure will remain over the waters through the rest of the weekend, with light winds expected to continue.
Temperatures warmed into the 70s in most locations, although the low 80s were seen in the Sarasota/Port Charlotte area. Tonight and Sunday will be dry and warm, with lows in the lower 60s in most places, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The main focus in the short term is the cold frontal passage late tonight into Sunday, which brings the most impacts. Do not anticipate any change in these conditions until very late tonight, as the next short wave and associated cold front swing through the FA.
545 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 The main focus in the short term is the cold frontal passage late tonight into Sunday, which brings the most impacts. Do not anticipate any change in these conditions until very late tonight, as the next short wave and associated cold front swing through the FA.
Low pressure continues to move rapidly northeast this afternoon while gradually deepening. A potent upper low swings across Texas on Sunday, but the daytime hours will remain dry.
230 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed the second of short wave troughs moving into the central Rockies. Light snow will become more widespread later this afternoon and linger through this evening before tapering off from northwest to southeast as the short wave trough exits the CWA overnight. Snow accumulations have been trending lower with track of the upper low further south.
131 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a short wave trough dropping out of Saskatchewan. A cold front will sweep east across the area with the short wave trough but the frontogenesis in the baroclinic zone looks to be almost non-existent.
1053 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 (This evening through Sunday) A warm front will lift north and east across the southern half of West Central Texas after midnight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s across the Big Country to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Temperatures across the southern half of the area will slowly increase after midnight, reaching the low 50s by daybreak. An upper level low will track across the South Plains on Sunday. This will send a cold front through West Central Texas Sunday morning. In addition, light showers are possible across the Big Country and eastern portions of the forecast area, as the trough tracks to our north.
Road conditions have improved considerably as temperatures have rebounded at or a bit above freezing and the precipitation has tapered off largely to just a few flurries and pockets of light snow. Will continue to see some flurries and pockets of light snow (especially south) into this evening before the lingering mid level trough passes. A few low amplitude waves may be shuttled down across the region at times, but in the absence of any further interaction in jet branches not being shown, surface ridging and limited moisture look to preclude any measurable precipitation. The forecasts attempt to time in the lowering ceilings around late morning early afternoon.
823 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 A few light snow showers are making there way across Northeast Montana as a cold front moves through. -Mottice Attention tonight turns to a cold front that will be slicing through the area late tonight from NW to SE. In fact, Sunday's high temperature will be the lowest so far this season.
Based on latest radar trends and short-fuse models, ongoing widespread light to moderate snow is expected to begin dissipating west to east generally after 13-15Z, and exiting the area by early afternoon as a closed upper low in the southern Texas Panhandle shifts east into the Ark-La-Tex Region by late afternoon. A dry/tranquil pattern returns to western Kansas tonight as ridging aloft transitions out of the Colorado Rockies into the adjacent Western High Plains while much drier air in the lower levels spreads into western Kansas within a west-northwesterly downslope flow.
Clouds will remain prevalent as increasing subsidence keeps the low level moisture trapped under the inversion.
1047 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 Plenty of cloud cover persists this evening and overnight as the region sits under a broad longwave trough. A dry cold front moves through on Sunday. This feature will usher in a cooler and drier air mass, but the enhanced mixing ahead of the Canadian air should allow temperatures to reach above normal for one more consecutive day.
Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed the second of short wave troughs moving into the central Rockies. Light snow will become more widespread later this afternoon and linger through this evening before tapering off from northwest to southeast as the short wave trough exits the CWA overnight. Snow accumulations have been trending lower with track of the upper low further south.
A sharp gradient in temperatures is shown across the frontal surface with temperatures in the low/mid 60s ahead of the front, with 50s behind the front. High resolution models are now showing this dense fog expanding southeast as the high clouds clear, resulting in a stronger radiational window. The surface cold front is progged to stall southeast of the I-65 corridor Sunday morning, then lifts north as a warm front Sunday afternoon in response to a wave of surface frontal low pressure lifting northeastward over LA/southwest MS. Ahead of the cold front, the 850 mb flow increases to 45 to 50 knots which results in 0-1 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 (possibly higher well inland) during the evening along with 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-65 knots.
Additional snow Sunday night will be associated with the passage of an upper trough.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 42 50 31 52 / 20 100 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 41 48 29 49 / 10 100 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 40 47 28 48 / 10 100 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 39 46 25 47 / 10 100 60 0 0.
The low pressure system that tracked further south negating our chance of widespread winter weather for the weekend continues its track to the eastern seaboard. The higher terrain could see 1-2 inches depending on how long these winds persist over the Lake. A cold front will move past the Minnesota terminals Sunday afternoon, and HYR in the evening.
The first of these glancing system will come today as a upper level trough will move out of New Mexico and into the Red River Valley before moving further east into the Ozarks. High pressure will build into the area tonight clearing skies out and allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s.
The high-based stratocu will continue to gradually decrease as it lifts north.
Temperatures overnight are significantly impacted by snow cover with temperatures as of 2 am in the teens across the snow pack while northwest and southeast Iowa outside the snow pack were in the low to mid 20s at the same time. Weakly building high pressure will help to gradually clear skies across the area throughout the day with clear skies expected by Sunday evening.
911 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 Colder and drier air continue to filter into the Mid-South this evening behind the cold front that moved through the area earlier today. Additional clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will move into the Mid-South after sunrise tomorrow. Upper-level analysis charts show an upper-level trough upstream over WY and into UT. Rain showers will cover most of the area by the afternoon and evening hours Sunday as the trough moves through the area. We'll see a break in the wet weather for a couple of days to kick off the workweek as a ridge develops over the southeast. Temperatures will be below average with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20 but we will see plenty of sunshine as high pressure takes over for a short period of time.
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 A cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region tonight and Sunday. A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to parts of the area Sunday night. Cooler air will filter into the forecast area through the night as another trough swings around retreating low pressure in southeastern Ontario. Weak high pressure will build in from the west through the day on Sunday. Some low level CAA will persist into the morning before the low level flow begins to slowly back through the afternoon. Would expect any snow accumulation to be minor with air temps remaining above freezing and the ground still warm.
A cold front will move southeast across northeast/eastern Montana late tonight. Winds will increase in the gap areas Sunday morning as high pressure builds over Yellowstone National Park. Cloud cover returns Sunday keeping overnight lows Sunday night warmer than what we will see tonight.
/issued 911 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020/ Colder and drier air continue to filter into the Mid-South this evening behind the cold front that moved through the area earlier today. Additional clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will move into the Mid-South after sunrise tomorrow. Upper-level analysis charts show an upper-level trough upstream over WY and into UT. Rain showers will cover most of the area by the afternoon and evening hours Sunday as the trough moves through the area. We'll see a break in the wet weather for a couple of days to kick off the workweek as a ridge develops over the southeast. Temperatures will be below average with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20 but we will see plenty of sunshine as high pressure takes over for a short period of time.
1005 PM MST Sat Dec 12 2020 Upper level analysis has large trof over the north central CONUS with weak closed low over Wyoming. Weak upper low over Wyoming will continue to the southeast with area remaining under light northwest flow aloft. Northwest flow aloft continues with some weak ridging expected across the central Rockies.
1040 PM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 Currently - A surface through lower level high is aligned well off the northeast coast with a ridge extending southwestward through the Florida Peninsula, into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is responsible for light to gentle broadly easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Substantial ridging is in place aloft and aligned over Cuba and the Bahamas. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain to our north through the overnight period. A few showers will remain possible overnight due to the low dew point depressions and a relatively high inversion. Ridging across Florida will maintain mostly light to gentle breezes across Keys waters overnight.
A digging upper trough currently over srn Saskatchewan will then approach the MS River by 00Z Mon.
Meanwhile, the potent mid/upper level wave moved out of the Rockies into the High Plains overnight. Partial clearing/warming near and south of the surging warm front this afternoon will lead to limited instability and a few thunderstorms over southwest sections this afternoon. As the cold front moves into this area, the convection will consolidate along the boundary and push eastward into southeast sections during the evening.
Current surface analysis places low over Manitoba with cold front dropping to the southwest, working through northwest North Dakota. With cooler air pouring in behind the system, do not expect much if any rise in temperatures today, so have trimmed back on highs a bit.
Impacts today are tied to the light snow and then gusty NW winds and colder temps behind the cold front.
Warmer air starts to move back into the region after the snowfall exits on Monday afternoon.
West of this feature, ridging extended up the Pacific NW coast from northern California into western British Columbia. East of the trough, broad southwesterly flow aloft extended from eastern Texas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Ridging aloft will build into the Central Plains tonight. On Monday the ridge will quickly migrate east as a trough deepens over the central and northern Rockies. The combination of increasing cloudiness and southeasterly upslope winds, will lead to cooler highs for Monday compared to Today's highs.
Cold front will sweep through the area this evening and believe precipitation threat will end by 06Z. Cooler drier weather is forecasted for late tonight through Monday.
High pressure aloft will traverse the region today, keeping conditions tranquil across the state. The next trough begins to impact the western mountain ranges overnight tonight, bringing another round of snow.
307 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Current surface analysis places low over Manitoba with cold front dropping to the southwest, working through northwest North Dakota. With cooler air pouring in behind the system, do not expect much if any rise in temperatures today, so have trimmed back on highs a bit.
Windy conditions and possible rain remain the high lights of the short-term forecast. Another cold front will sweep across West Central Texas today.
307 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Upper-level water vapor imagery shows a trough over the southern Rockies with a shield of stratus across much of the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. High pressure remains in control for Monday with sunny skies in the morning giving way to afternoon clouds. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than we will see today, in the low 40s.
511 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Water vapor satellite this morning shows a short wave trough dropping out of Saskatchewan. A cold front will sweep east across the area with the short wave trough but the frontogenesis in the baroclinic zone looks to be almost non-existent. Both the GFS and NAM MOS are 3 to 5F warmer than the NBM in this area.
A front will stall just to the north of the state today, with high pressure at the surface and aloft ridging across the southern peninsula.
Any precipitation forming is in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Outside of the snow this mornings cold front is still progged to bring advisory level winds through mid afternoon out west.
503 AM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 Patchy, dense freezing fog will be possible for the Northern Rockies through this morning (particularly for valleys in the 2000-4000 feet elevation swath).