Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies and light winds under high pressure could still bring some patchy fog across the CWA this morning. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer and near normal in the 70s and 80s. Ridge remains overhead tonight, continuing mainly clear skies.
1254 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Sunday with approaching low pressure. Closer proximity of the upper trough, its stronger jet enhancement, and the approach sfc fronts Sunday will foster more widespread convection that afternoon and evening.
1053 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mostly stacked surface to upper level low over southwest Minnesota, with surface flow on the southwestern edge of the low largely coming from the west- northwest. For the rest of the day, the stacked low will be slowly moving eastwards as a ridge of high pressure develops out west, keeping us mostly cloudy through the morning hours. With a largely unchanged air mass overhead, afternoon highs will thus remain on the cooler side in the lower to upper 70s, though areas in central SD could sneak up into the lower 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop after 20/18Z, mainly over the higher elevations of central ID. Greater convective development is expected Saturday afternoon in the Boise Mountains, west central Idaho Mountains, Camas Prairie, and near the ID/NV border, as a weak Pacific upper trough moves through those areas. Behind the trough eastern Oregon will be sunny and warm. The clearer skies in Oregon will advance eastward into Idaho Saturday night, and Sunday should be mostly sunny everywhere under a short wave upper ridge, except in eastern-most Idaho mountains where a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms is again forecast. Skies will become clear in Idaho Sunday night, but the next weak Pacific trough will bring clouds and a slight chance of showers to eastern Oregon Sunday night. High temperatures Saturday will be 1-3 degrees warmer than today, and another 5 to 7 degrees Sunday.
Evening sounding from OHX gives us a CAPE of 1,766 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -5, so the instability is definitely there, and with a weak upper trough hovering over the mid state, believe there is enough impetus for the occasional cell to develop even during the overnight period. (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Longwave troughing now in place across the eastern half of the US. More of the same tomorrow although coverage will be a little higher as the low level southerly flow ramps up a touch and brings more moisture in across the area.
(Today) An unsettled weather pattern continued over the southeastern states, with generalized troughing east and ridging west over the CONUS. Mean ridging to an extent was in place over the SW states. A couple of upper lows that helped constitute the eastern trough was progressing across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures should average a bit cooler into the mid/upper 80s.
- Cloudy and showery Saturday, especially near and south of I-90, and cooler than normal. * Shower and Storms Through Saturday Satellite imagery this early afternoon showed the slowly migrating stacked low pressure system rotating over southwestern Minnesota this early afternoon. Saturday night will mark a diminishing shower trend however deformation on the north side of the low is suggested in the CAMS with some popcorn showers.
(Today through Sunday) Southerly flow will open up the moisture potential along with a long wave trough across the eastern US. and as this rotates around the upper low over the Quebec Providence today and into tomorrow this will provide a greater focus for increased showers and thunderstorms for Middle TN.
Generally dry and warmer to start the new work week.
More showers and storms will happen Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure moves into and across the region. Short wave over the mid Mississippi Valley early this morning will progress east ahead of the main mid-level trough and cross the area today. Primary positively-tilted mid-level trough will push into the area late tonight into Sunday. Clouds will inhibit heating a bit with highs only reaching the lower 80s in most of the area on Sunday.
346 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Discussion/Marine Low pressure centered over Iowa is vertically stacked and weakening today, but with enough cold air in the mid levels it will support diurnally driven convection over Lower Michigan. As the low gradually migrates east through southern Michigan on Sunday, some warm air advected northward on its eastern side and slightly cooler air advected southward on its western side could act to reintensify the low just a little. Cooler mid to upper levels will remain supportive of scattered deep convection, first over Lake Michigan during diurnal minimum then over land later in the day.
Low tempertures will be a little warmer tonight, in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Rain chances return Saturday, as a 500mb trough drops south and east from the north-central U. A warm front will lift north from LA as a cold front approaches from the NW. The cold front looks to enter northern parts of the state some time early Sunday, stalling about midway near central AR.
ridge will be drawing deep monsoonal moisture northward this weekend. Storms are drifting in just about every direction and that will continue as the upper low/wave parked overhead. Will downplay that option and keep preciptation chances on the higher end of NBM probabilities.
The upper level pattern still has the area under the influence of a ridge that is amplified up into Southern Canada while the cut-off low near the Great Lakes pushes off to the east. However, a small disturbance is moving through the ridge which will put the area in more of a split flow pattern. Assuming little to no more moisture is advected into the area, highs will be a bit warmer with 80's and a few 90's underneath partly cloudy skies as the cooler air mass moves off to the east.
Hot temperatures continue over Central California on Saturday as high pressure in the Eastern Pacific remains strong.
There could possibly be some impacts this evening if showers and thunderstorms end up training across an area, however, confidence in this is on the lower end. With the low pressure system spinning to our SE, showers and thunderstorms will continue to redevelop into the evening across SE North Dakota and W Central Minnesota. Large scale pattern will feature a deepening Hudson Bay upper low and strengthened monsoonal ridge across the southwest CONUS, and there is strong ensemble clustering towards this general pattern.
144 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 High pressure will provide mainly dry and fair weather through tonight. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon with the better chance of showers and storms to arrive Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Quiet weather through tonight as high pressure drifts eastward into New England. Saturday night, shower and thunderstorm potential will continue overnight as the trough to our west approaches the Lower Lakes. Otherwise, it will be warmer overnight as southerly flow will support lows generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.
102 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Upper low continues to swirl over southwest MN as it slowly drifts southward. temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Instability will be best over the east tomorrow as slightly cooler/drier air begins to push into the west.
By mid-week a more organized upper-level trough will settle over the Northern Rockies that will bring more shower and thunderstorm chances across the region.
Our entire area will be benefiting from the favorable timing of a moisture rich monsoon fetch from southern New Mexico, coupled with the energy from a remnant tropical wave slowly lifting to the northeast across eastern New Mexico today and tonight - while a closed low over the upper Midwest pushes a cold front south through the Texas Panhandle this morning, that eventually stalls across our latitude later today and stall for the next 48 hours or so. The spigot will get turned wide open late this afternoon through the evening hours into tomorrow when the surface cold front arrives from our north. The fortuitous timing of the moisture rich upper trough intersecting the surface boundary sometime around mid-afternoon will see rainfall quickly overspread our CWA eastward from the NM/TX state line by early this evening.
A stronger jetstream remains further toward the Hudson Bay region where a deepening low pressure system looks to remain sparing us from QPF chances this weekend.
(Today and tonight) Today will be the transition day as a mid/upper-level trough and monsoonal moisture across the southwest U. moves eastward toward the Highs Plains. Ahead of this trough it'll be another seasonably hot afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s deg F (around average for this time of year). Besides daytime heating, a remnant boundary near the Kansas/Oklahoma border will also serve as a focus for convective development as it drifts southward (aided by a trough across the Midwest).
They will continue to move south and out of the region as the low tracks along the MN/SD border. Saturday, temps at 850mb are between 10 and 12 degrees C across the region, so a little warmer than today. The high pressure shifts east midweek, allowing LLM to return to the Northern Plains.
319 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 The upper low currently over Iowa will open up as it moves slowly eastward to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday. The associated cold front will slowly push through the Quad State Sunday.
A low pressure will provide isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across eastern Nevada. An upper level low centered over northwestern Utah and southern Idaho will continue to provide moisture and instability across eastern Nevada to produce isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across eastern Nevada, with warmer highs in the low to mid 90s across western Nevada. Saturday evening into Sunday a ridge of high pressure off the shore of California will propagate east. As a result mostly sunny skies are expected with warmer temperatures across the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, approaching 100 in areas of Humboldt County.
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Issued 328 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022) Today through Sunday: Upper low centered over Iowa early this morning has sent a few rounds of showers and storms our way. While the upper low will be weakening a bit and transitioning to an open wave today, we are already seeing signs of additional PVA resulting in scattered showers and storms over eastern IA and northern IL. CAMs, EPS, GEFS and CMC ensembles in general consensus with a steady east southeast progression of this low, traversing northern IL later this afternoon and this evening. 5 inch of rainfall are confined to areas ahead of the track of the upper low, just scraping far southern WI. Heading into Sunday, cyclonic flow will remain in place over the region as the upper low continues to slowly exit stage east.
Given the high cloud bases and dry lower levels, this activity has resulted in some 20-30 mph wind gusts at times. Given the lack of cloud cover across this area early in the day, instability has been building throughout northeast Kansas and northern Missouri this afternoon and is the most likely area to see strong to severe storms develop as the low drops southward into Iowa. The remainder of the weekend, and into the upcoming workweek, will remain dry with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Late tomorrow morning a cold front will move through the area and skies will become mostly sunny.
1255 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 High pressure will cross the region tonight into Sunday.
A cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to slide through the area this morning along a weak cold front. Seasonable daily highs in the the middle to upper 80s, with a few locations in the low 90s across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will trigger a few showers and storms, initially north of the taf sites but then shifting south into the area by 18z-00z.
307 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Sunday with approaching low pressure. Closer proximity of the upper trough, its stronger jet enhancement, and the approach sfc fronts Sunday will foster more widespread convection that afternoon and evening.
1129 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 There could possibly be some impacts this evening if showers and thunderstorms end up training across an area, however, confidence in this is on the lower end. With the low pressure system spinning to our SE, showers and thunderstorms will continue to redevelop into the evening across SE North Dakota and W Central Minnesota. Large scale pattern will feature a deepening Hudson Bay upper low and strengthened monsoonal ridge across the southwest CONUS, and there is strong ensemble clustering towards this general pattern.
1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Large upper low over MN covers most of the eastern half of the country in a broad trough while the sub tropical ridge extends in from the Atlantic up across TX northward along the Rockies to Canada. Weaker ridge, unstable, good moisture, daytime heating along with orographic lift creating favorable environment for additional storm development over/near the mountains.
1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Cold front slowly pushing south across the area today, but there is not a significant difference temperature ahead of or behind this feature.
212 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend.
3am discussion: Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend with warmer temperatures and dry weather.
NBM has settled on temps this afternoon topping out in the low 80s over the more clouds west to near 90 degrees in the lower plains counties.
Today Through Sunday Night Moisture and temperatures will increase across the area today as a warm front lifts northward. To the north of the state, a cold front will simultaneously be trying to move into northern Arkansas.
A cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to slide through the area this morning along a weak cold front. Seasonable daily highs in the the middle to upper 80s, with a few locations in the low 90s across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.
609 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) More rain is on the way as low pressure over NM helps advect monsoonal moisture into West Texas and the Panhandle this afternoon. The upper low will move eastward on Sunday, with the greatest precipitation chances as well as highest flood threat shifting to the northern and eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, with 70s across the west, 80s through the central CWA, and 90s across the east. Sunday's highs will be a degree or two cooler with ample cloud cover.
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will be the transition day as a mid/upper-level trough and monsoonal moisture across the southwest U. moves eastward toward the Highs Plains. Ahead of this trough it'll be another seasonably hot afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s deg F (around average for this time of year). Besides daytime heating, a remnant boundary near the Kansas/Oklahoma border will also serve as a focus for convective development as it drifts southward (aided by a trough across the Midwest).
These may persist into the night as geopotential height falls occur with the approach of the upper low/trough.
Temperatures will reach into the mid-upper 90s in the valleys and mid-upper 80s in the Sierra this weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
1035 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Deep layer ridging is now entrenched across the western North Atlantic, with the 12Z KKEY RAOB highlighting deep easterlies giving way to east-southeasterlies aloft. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled rising heights as low level ridging continues to take back real estate. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the weekend, with breezes tending to surge at night and lull during the afternoons.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) More rain is on the way as low pressure over NM helps advect monsoonal moisture into West Texas and the Panhandle this afternoon. The upper low will move eastward on Sunday, with the greatest precipitation chances as well as highest flood threat shifting to the northern and eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, with 70s across the west, 80s through the central CWA, and 90s across the east. Sunday's highs will be a degree or two cooler with ample cloud cover.
Currently thinking that as diurnal heating takes over and the upper low drifts east- southeastward, cloud cover should become less prevalent, but there is some potential for this to raise into a stratocumulus deck this afternoon, so will continue to monitor trends. A stronger jetstream remains further toward the Hudson Bay region where a deepening low pressure system looks to remain sparing us from QPF chances this weekend.
645 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today) An unsettled weather pattern continued over the southeastern states, with generalized troughing east and ridging west over the CONUS. Mean ridging to an extent was in place over the SW states. A couple of upper lows that helped constitute the eastern trough was progressing across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. With more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures should average a bit cooler into the mid/upper 80s.
Clear skies and relatively warm overnight lows are seen early this morning as high pressure in the eastern Pacific continues to expand into NorCal today. An upper trough approaches the PacNW on Sunday and will shunt ridging to the south.
728 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Aviation Low pressure centered over Iowa is vertically stacked and weakening today, but with enough cold air in the mid levels it will support diurnally driven convection over Lower Michigan. As the low gradually migrates east through southern Michigan on Sunday, some warm air advected northward on its eastern side and slightly cooler air advected southward on its western side could act to reintensify the low just a little. Cooler mid to upper levels will remain supportive of scattered deep convection, first over Lake Michigan during diurnal minimum then over land later in the day.
822 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Sunday with approaching low pressure. Closer proximity of the upper trough, its stronger jet enhancement, and the approach sfc fronts Sunday will foster more widespread convection that afternoon and evening.
The upper low currently over Iowa will open up as it moves slowly eastward to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday. The associated cold front will slowly push through the Quad State Sunday.
628 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today through Sunday) Southerly flow will open up the moisture potential along with a long wave trough across the eastern US. and as this rotates around the upper low over the Quebec Providence today and into tomorrow this will provide a greater focus for increased showers and thunderstorms for Middle TN.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/imagery show an upper level low pressure system spinning over the western Great Lakes and a cold front dropping south across northern Minnesota and Lake Superior. The upper low will continue to move east-southeast across Lake Michigan and into Lower Michigan.
At 231 PM, an area of low pressure was swirling over eastern Iowa. To the east of the lows center, and unstable atmosphere and lift were producing scattered thunderstorm activity with occasional funnel clouds. West of the low, atmospheric conditions were less unstable. High pressure should keep winds light throughout the day while sunny skies will help temperatures peak in the mid 80s. The First Half of the Workweek: Weak upper level ridging should be in place across the central states for the start of the workweek.
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 The forecast for this afternoon and evening looks on track with a cold front which is currently over northwest Missouri moving southeast through the area tonight. This is where I've forecast the highest chance for precip late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings (particularly the GFS) show an "inverted-V" in the lower levels indicating potential for strong downbursts. Drier air and slightly cooler filters into the region behind the cold front on Sunday.
247 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 A trough of low pressure extends from the Great Lakes into western Tennessee. A trough of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere was entered over the Western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with the trough axis extending into Mid-MS valley. A short wave embedded within the southern part of the trough is forecast to eject northeast and across the central Appalachians late tonight and Sunday. The clouds may also temper the high temperatures Sunday, readings ranging from the U60s/L70s mountains to upper 70s piedmont. An upper level trough and a cold front will move across the Ohio Valley Sunday night.
Considerable moisture associated with an upper trough resides across SW Idaho and portions of SE Oregon for another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the convection will occur in the higher elevations of central Idaho. Showers and thunderstorms will develop after 20/18Z, mainly over the higher elevations of central ID.
Still expecting a little more shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening, with the ridge farther east than yesterday. With a warmer start and the ridge more well entrenched, temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow, with much of the area seeing highs back into the 90s.
High pressure at the surface will continue to ridge over our region through the weekend and beginning of the week. High pressure at the surface will continue to ridge over the waters for the next days.
A gradually drying air mass under a building high pressure ridge will push showers and thunderstorms east of Nevada through Sunday.
A cold front will move into the region during the afternoon and will be a focus for additional showers in storms.
Lows tonight are expected in the low to upper 60s from north to south. Highs from the low to mid 80s are expected.
303 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Stacked upper low easily seen on visible satellite movie loops right over eastern Iowa. Overnight, skies should remain mostly cloudy with lows in the lower 60s.
250 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Upper low crossing the southern Great Lakes will continue to spark showers and storms at times through Sunday.
(Today and tonight) An upper low near the AZ/NM border which has produced showers and thunderstorms across much of the desert southwest will move east into the TX panhandle by this evening.
With high pressure shifting through the Plains region, most of the CWA is seeing a east-northeast flow around the 10-15mph range. The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis and mid level water vapor continues to show an amplified ridge extending from the Gulf region northwest into the north central Rockies. An upper low resides to the east of the ridge in the Great Lakes region, and another out west. Mid/high level moisture continue to work around/through the ridge into the CWA, providing a veiled sunshine.
1257 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Rest of Today) Weak frontal boundary that was stalled over north MS into NW/north central AL has now lifted more northward as a warm front into south central TN. This activity is generally moving to the ENE embedded along the southern branch of an upper trough pattern that is gradually traversing across the Midwest/OH Valley regions. The better dynamic forcing looks to remain more displaced to the N/NW in closer proximity to the center of the upper trough axis.