Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 AM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Strong high pressure will allow for very warm temperatures, with highs in the 90s at most lower elevations and 80s in the mountains. Strong upper ridging remains in place today before being suppressed by a strong disturbance with attendant cold front moving northeast across the region Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms this morning along the Northern Rockies will give way to widespread scattered thunderstorms moving northeast across the region this afternoon into the evening and possibly early overnight before cold frontal passage. A stronger wave moving through on Wednesday will suppress the ridge somewhat, allowing for slightly cooler conditions for the rest of the week.
638 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and much less humid air will arrive today. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast. Messy mix of clouds over the NW being revealed as the high clouds slide to the east. Instability in the cooler air will likely generate isold SHRA as the sun breaks through. These showers will be most prevalent over the Alleghenies where cooler air aloft, residual sfc moisture, and elevation/topography play a part in making some small, fast- moving showers.
730 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and much less humid air will arrive today. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast. Messy mix of clouds over the NW being revealed as the high clouds slide to the east. Instability in the cooler air will likely generate isold SHRA as the sun breaks through. These showers will be most prevalent over the Alleghenies where cooler air aloft, residual sfc moisture, and elevation/topography play a part in making some small, fast- moving showers.
Winds will remain light and become more southerly as the high moves to the southeast. Quiet and dry conditions continue as the upper ridge axis builds over the Rockies and slowly moves east into the Plains mid-week. Some afternoon cumulus clouds but that will not impact temps too much and we should still get into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. With the ridge axis shifting further east there will be plenty of warm air in the area along with good mixing and we should see temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Mid level high pressure is centered near the four corners this morning.
441 AM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis through the northern Rockies with some embedded monsoonal moisture. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with lee trof from central MT through central WY. A bit of mid/high clouds tracking through the ridge into the forecast area. Another dry day in store with large scale subsidence in place from the upper ridge. Wednesday will likely be the hottest and most humid day of the week with thermal ridge overhead. Many plains locations will rise into the lower 90s. Could see some late day storms as the approaching trof works into our western zones while Pac NW trof moves into the Rockies.
613 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 With amplified upper ridge axis centered over Rockies, area remains in northwest flow. Watching short wave trough drop across western Great Lakes early this morning that triggered some clouds and convection, but that should continue to exit the area. Later periods can be summarized by flow becoming somewhat more zonal and series of short wave troughs passing through creating occasional rain and storm threats.
The upper pattern today is highlighted by deep H5 troughing across the eastern CONUS, while anticyclonic flow prevails out west. At the surface, high pressure continues to advect southeast across the Plains into the OH/TN Valleys in the wake of a cold front which is now moving east of the Appalachians. As for the weather closer to home, drier air will consume the region as the upper trough axis slides east and the aforementioned high pressure settles in.
We will start the period with a large area of high pressure centered over the 4-corners area, with a ridge stretching north across MT, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. At the surface, the 1026mb high over eastern NE still had a ridge extending up across our entire area as well as much of ND and western MN.
218 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 An upper-level ridge was anchored over the Western U. with a trough over the East. For Wednesday, another very nice day with temps in the low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity. Towards the end of the week, the flow begins to turn NW as a ridge builds in across the central Plains. This ridge will likely lead to warmer temps across the area and the return of deep moisture. The end of the weekend, a cold front is expected to pass through the area. The ridge is forecast to move east and bring the MCS track closer to the area. VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dry and seasonable weather is expected this week with isolated showers possible along the eastern ridges Today and Wednesday. The best chances will be along the eastern ridges where orographic lift will aid storm organization and better low level moisture is expected to reside, but showers may extend farther east Wednesday depending on the potency of the incoming wave and any remaining near sfc moisture. The cooler air in the NW flow will result in a slightly below seasonal temperature for the region through the period with a mix of sun and clouds each day.
229 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A rather benign weather pattern will remain in place across North and Central Texas as an upper level ridge continues to take hold of the western United States. With a ridge to our west and a trough to our east, North and Central Texas will remain under northerly flow aloft through the end of this work week.
1006 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure center this morning over NE with northerly winds over all of IL. High pressure building into the middle of the country this morning, with northwesterly flow aloft established over the Plains and into the Midwestern states. Have warmed a degree or so over blended MOS as this morning is also a little warmer than 24 hrs ago.
243 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Shower activity beginning to bubble up across the higher elevations around west and central Wyoming this afternoon. With the midlevel ridge to the south, showers will move to the northeast off the Teton and Absaroka Ranges, and to the east from the Big Horn Range. The bottom edge of this vort cuts down the top of the ridge tomorrow morning, keeping instability in the vicinity.
202 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 The latest GOES-16 satellite images and RAP analyses indicated a pronounced upper ridge over the Rockies with mostly sunny skies across the CWA.
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and much less humid air arriving today in northerly flow. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast. Main player today is upper trough that will take its time swinging through over the next few days. Though airmass is much drier in lower levels, cooler air aloft helping to produce enough instability/CAPE to generate isolated to scattered showers and a few tstms along an 850mb N/S oriented convergence line extending from ROC to BFD to MGW. With trough still lingering, more isolated showers again look to pop midday/afternoon generally over the NW and Laurels.
The remainder of the night looks quiet as a high pressure ridge settles overhead. We will like see just a build up of cumulus otherwise with highs topping off in the lower/mid 80s. Wednesday night will see a slight increase in high/mid clouds mainly after midnight in warm air advection ahead of a cold front moving east across the Northern Plains.
/Issued 228 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/ The center of the upper level ridge will be over southern Colorado or northern New Mexico through Wednesday night.
There is a subtle upper trough moving through WI today within cyclonic flow. Expect a similar setup for tomorrow with high pressure lingering overhead and another subtle upper trough moving through.
248 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure provides cooler and drier weather, gradually warming up by the weekend. High pressure takes control of weather conditions through the period. Temperatures will start to increase by the end of the work week, but still remains much cooler than what was observed last week. Upper ridging and building heights will continue to migrate into the Ohio Valley by the start of the weekend, inducing increasing afternoon temperatures and humidity.
253 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure centered over the Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota borders will continue drifting east-southeast through Wednesday night.
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: Tropical Depression Three has degenerated into a remnant trough of low pressure of the NE coast of Florida late this morning. Ahead of an upper level trough and front moving through the southeast we are under deep southwest flow.
1055 AM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis through the northern Rockies with some embedded monsoonal moisture. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with lee trof from central MT through central WY. A bit of mid/high clouds tracking through the ridge into the forecast area. Another dry day in store with large scale subsidence in place from the upper ridge. Wednesday will likely be the hottest and most humid day of the week with thermal ridge overhead. Many plains locations will rise into the lower 90s. Could see some late day storms as the approaching trof works into our western zones while Pac NW trof moves into the Rockies.
Forecast is in great shape, with highs expected to top out in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front passage will bring temperatures back to near normal Wednesday, but also keep winds breezy. Aside from the high clouds over the Cascades and southern Panhandle, expect mostly clear skies for much of the afternoon with hot temperatures. The main driver will be a cold front that will push across the region overnight. Most activity will develop overnight as a cold front sweeps through the region with gusty westerly winds and speeds of 30kt or more.
251 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Drier air will overtake the area during the rest of the week with high pressure building in.
319 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 In the wake of the cold front passage last night, much cooler and drier air continues to spread into eastern KY. Of special note are the lower dewpoints showing up across north central KY. upper trough will result in September like weather for the next few days.
1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure center this morning over NE with northerly winds over all of IL. High pressure building into the middle of the country this morning, with northwesterly flow aloft established over the Plains and into the Midwestern states. Have warmed a degree or so over blended MOS as this morning is also a little warmer than 24 hrs ago.
There will be an eastward expansion of the ridge at the same time, eventually resulting in rising mid level heights over our region, and thus surface temps, but only modestly. Expect lows around 60 with highs around 80, creeping up into the lower 80s by Thu, under sunlit/moonlit skies.
Upper-level ridging will quickly build into the region today w/ H5 heights climbing to 594-596 dam by 00z Wednesday. Considerably warmer today, with high temperatures in the 80s for much of the CWA. A flattening ridge is expected to give way to fairly active quasi- zonal flow on the northern periphery. Thunderstorms are possible each afternoon & evening across portions of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle, w/the best chance over the higher terrain.
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Subsidence behind a departing short wave trough has left partly to mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan at mid afternoon. Although mid level thermal trough axis will be shifting to the southeast tonight there will be some elevated instability potential along low/mid level theta-e axis extending south from northwest Ontario and into western Upper Michigan. A cold front north of Lake Superior Wednesday not likely to make much southward progress Wednesday night as heights rise a bit across the upper Lakes.
Cooler Weather Followed By Gradual Warmup. Temperatures will gradually warm into the weekend when the ridge builds back in.
Highly amplified mid level ridge over the Rockies will remain stationary through the period, but will get flattened a bit come Wednesday night, as a mid level trof over the eastern Pacific gets ejected northeast into southwest Canada.
1118 AM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Modest N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies. Wed-Sat: Modest NW-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area, on the ENE-NE periphery of an upper level ridge situated over the Rockies. Sun-Tue: GFS/ECMWF guidance indicate that the upper level ridge over the Rockies will de-amplify/flatten this weekend, placing the Tri-State area in closer proximity to the mid-latitude westerlies.
347 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 An upper level trough passing through the region over the next 2 days will provide partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers each day.
Temps currently sit in the low 60s to mid 70s and will warm slightly into this afternoon.
249 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A cold front will push south and east of the area tonight with high pressure building into the region along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity for the next several days. Scattered light rain will continue from the Blue Ridge eastward for a few more hours as well. The short term period of the forecast will be dominated by an anomalously deep upper level trof on the order of 2-3 standard deviations below normal per the GEFS.
Temps currently sit in the low 60s to mid 70s and will warm slightly into this afternoon. VFR through this taf period with dry high pressure moving in from the northwest.
At the surface, regional satellite imagery noted the center of the high pressure system across the Buffalo Ridge in eastern South Dakota. Winds will become southwest on Wednesday and begin to increase Wednesday night in advance of the next cold front moving into the Dakotas.
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Northwest upper level flow has taken hold over the region and will remain in control as a large ridge becomes entrenched across the western CONUS.
Cooler, drier air will continue to advect into the region overnight. Although a surface pressure gradient will help to keep winds up overnight, thus limiting the radiational cooling effect, overnight lows will still fall into the low to mid 60s, near record levels for each site.
311 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and drier air will be the story for the next few days, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure remains over the area. Latest model projections suggest that this ridge will make slow progress to the east over the next several days, as the upper level flow stays out of the N-NW. Ridge will slowly slide into the Ozarks and Mississippi valley by Thu/Fri, which will lead to a gradual warming trend back towards normal for end of the week, for areas west of I-135, as southerly winds return to the region.
For Wednesday, the southerly winds associated with the high pressure system are expected to increase, which will lead to increased heating.
115 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Modest N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies. Through the start of the weekend, flow aloft will remain somewhat stagnant with large H5 ridge centered to the southwest of the area.
An upper trough will bring clouds and a few showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Currently, a deep positively tilted trough is situated over the eastern CONUS extending through the Appalachians with associated cold front along the eastern states though the Gulf region. Over the central and northern plains anticyclonic flow remains with a sharp mid to upper level ridge from the central Rockies into the northern Rockies and over west central portions of Canada. At the surface, high pressure is dominating the central CONUS. The cross over temperatures are not expected to be reached tonight over the region even through the high pressure ridge will be solidly in control with calm winds.
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A high-amplitude mid-level ridge axis remains over western Colorado. Convection is ongoing this afternoon with showers and storms initiating off the higher terrain and slowly rotating around the high pressure center. A low pressure system currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to move east just north of the Canadian/CONUS border. This will force our high pressure southward beginning Wednesday afternoon and allow for moisture to wrap around the northern side of the high pressure. This increased cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures a little cooler than the past several days.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an amplified pattern in place across the Nation; with a large ridge over the Rockies, and a trough deepening over the Great Lakes.
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure will provide for generally dry conditions through the week with a gradual warming trend.
If this trend continues, we could see a cu-line begin to congeal over the Lower Keys.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Aside from isolated cumulus development with leading edge of cooler air mass this aftn, clear skies will prevail for the remainder of the short term period with very dry air at all lvls, including the sfc where current dewpoints in the middle 60s will continue to sink into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Aftn highs Wednesday will only climb to the middle to upper 80's once again with continued ne breeze of 10 to 15 mph as high pressure stil remains centered to the north and west of area. Better radiative cooling Wed Night although winds may still become totally calm, but enough to allow temps to fall again to the lower to middle 60's.
1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 With amplified upper ridge axis centered over Rockies, area remains in northwest flow. Watching short wave trough drop across western Great Lakes early this morning that triggered some clouds and convection, but that should continue to exit the area. Later periods can be summarized by flow becoming somewhat more zonal and series of short wave troughs passing through creating occasional rain and storm threats.
The upper pattern is expected to remain quasi-stationary, with an upper anticyclone over the SWRN CONUS/Four Corners, and an upper trough over the ERN CONUS (deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM). Nevertheless, the likelihood for additional isolated/scattered convection remains this evening/tonight owing to moisture convergence along the boundary, mainly over the SRN CWA/MSA, before the front moves south of the region and high pressure builds across the region by Wednedsay.
157 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 The 500-mb trough axis will progress through the area late this evening into the early overnight periods. That said, cold air advection behind the trough axis combined with clear skies will set up refreshing, and even possibly chilly, overnight temperatures. The cooler airmass will remain in place through the short term period, marked by temperatures in the mid 80s tomorrow.
A trough of low pressure at the surface will remain nearly stationary overnight across eastern Colorado as the cool dome of high pressure slides east into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The lows overnight will still be on the cool side but not as cool as last night. Tonight the lows across western Kansas will range from around 57 to the lower 60s. Wednesday will be sunny and warmer.
249 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 High pressure will provide for dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures through mid week. High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today.
112 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A strong push of monsoonal moisture is moving through the region today ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures should trend a couple of degrees warmer.
206 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A high amplitude upper level ridge is located across the Rockies at this time keeping the area under the influence of high pressure both at the surface and aloft. The northwest flow associated with this feature is continuing to pump cooler and drier air into the region. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to near 60 with highs Wednesday climbing into the low 80s. The upper level ridge over the Rockies will begin to flatten as a short wave trough moves over the ridge across Southern Canada.
The persistent ridge near the Four Corners Region will continue providing mostly sunny skies across the region. Given the north and northeasterly winds aloft associated with the large area of high pressure back to the west, temperatures will be quite pleasant for this time of year.
Models have the upper ridge center over the four corners tonight and Wednesday. For temperatures, Wednesday's look to to be 2-3 C warmer than this afternoon's highs. With the upper ridge continuing to dominate the region into Wednesday, a fast moving Pacific trough treks across southern Canada while pushing slightly cooler surface air southward onto the high plains. CAPE values for Wednesday afternoon and evening reside in the 800-1800 J/kg range and with the weak late day surge this may keep some storms going later into the evening hours especially near the Cheyenne Ridge and far NE I-76 corridor. With the flattening of the ridge and zonal flow over the northern states this should allow for much quicker storm motion as flow aloft becomes more westerly.
2-pm temperatures were mainly in the lower to middle 80s. For the next couple of days, the upper high over NM will wobble slightly westward, but still exert enough influence over our forecast area for temperatures to warm back up to near seasonal norms, i.
243 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Moisture channel 4-panel satellite imagery displays upper trough from Great Lakes into the lower MS valley.
A highly amplified pattern remains in place with a strong ridge over the western US and a trough to the east. The center of a 500 mb ridge was near the border of eastern UT and northwest CO this morning. A few low lying areas may be cooler. Winds will be a bit stronger from the south, as high pressure starts to slide off to the east/southeast.
303 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Cooler and much less humid air arriving today in northerly flow. Warmer and more muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast. Main player today is upper trough that will take its time swinging through over the next few days. Though airmass is much drier in lower levels, cooler air aloft helping to produce enough instability/CAPE to generate isolated to scattered showers and a few tstms along an 850mb N/S oriented convergence line extending from ROC to BFD to MGW. With trough still lingering, more isolated showers again look to pop midday/afternoon generally over the NW and Laurels. A rather deep (seasonably-adjusted) upper level trough over CPA at the start of the period will gradually deamplify into the weekend.
A cold front is slowly pushing to the south and has all but cleared the forecast area. Behind this front, northerly flow is filtering in a much drier airmass, with dewpoints in the lower 60s over parts of the area as of 9 am. As high pressure continues to build in, the surface pressure gradient will remain tight and allow for winds to increase through the day. Moderately strong north-northwest flow aloft will continue overnight, but should begin to subside and veer to north-northeast on Wednesday afternoon, as the primary trough axis drops southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico and weakens.
241 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly move eastward tonight, as an upper level disturbance moves into the region. It will turn windy on Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures.