Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
By Tuesday, a cold front will push through the area overnight. Highs Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the mid-80s to the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Meanwhile the upper ridge over our area will continue to shift east. With the low level flow from the southeast and south today into early tonight, downslope flow into the northern and central valley will help to inhibit any precip there and may also bump temperatures up even more. Expect temperatures in the lower 90s northern and central valley areas today.
Tuesday precip concerns and placement across MN will revolve on tropical disturbance remnants blocking the flow and placement of trough axis.
Areas of southern Missouri may stay a bit cooler today due to cloud cover moving in with Cristobal.
Models continue advertising a nearly steady minimum central pressure as the cyclone moves through, so confidence in seeing a relatively sustained period of heavy rain and breezy winds remains high.
301 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Today, upper ridging is holding on above the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure remains.
109 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday, when temperatures may reach or top 90 degrees for many areas.
The main culprit is southwesterly flow ahead of an upper trough over the western U. The trough out west will move into the central U. tomorrow pushing a cold front through the area that will thankfully bring temps back down to near normal. An upper high pressure system will gradually build over northern Mexico the remainder of the week causing temperatures to once again increase. The high center is expected to remain to our southwest which should prevent extreme heat from returning. Circulation around the high could bring moisture into the higher elevations west of the Pecos River where isolated storms will be possible. The critical conditions will continue overnight as very dry air continues with gusty northwest winds developing behind a cold front.
Precipitation will exit the forecast area later tonight as a strong upper trof kicks the remains of Cristobal quickly to the north. Forecast low-level thermal fields suggests that temps will quickly rise Tuesday ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front, with mid 90s likely again across parts of southeast OK/western AR.
Return flow will continue until late morning Mon, after which sfc winds will veer to the west in response to leeside troughing. Increasing mid-level dryness and the expansion of the low- level thermal ridge will promote sfc temperatures in the 100-105F range for most locations with the hottest temperatures between 107- 115F along the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys. This front will provide a brief bout of gusty winds and much cooler temperatures. The remainder of the week will include a slow warming trend as the ridge builds back in over the area.
Breezy SW sfc winds wl allow high temps Tue aftn to rebound into the lower and mid 90s at most locations.
One more hot day, similar to yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 90s and strong southerly winds at 20 to 40 mph. There is a cold front across the western part of NE, and this will get pushed eastward toward our area today, but should remain just west of the of our counties in northeast NE through 00Z. Weather trends Tuesday are challenging as various models handle the deepening trough crossing the Rockies slightly differently. the cold front moves into northeast NE, significantly increasing precipitation chances in that area, with strong northwesterly winds developing. Temperatures are also a challenge Tuesday, with highs in northeast NE only in the upper 60s, but highs in the Missouri River valley in the lower 80s.
Cooler temperatures and possible precipitation chances return late this week. Skies have cleared out early this morning other than some high clouds spilling over the eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal, and some lingering low clouds along and east of the northern Sierra/southern Cascade crest.
644 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Depression Cristobal will move north through the Mississippi Valley today and tonight ahead of a large low pressure system moving east from the Plains.
This will act to suppress precipitation for the Lower and Middle Keys.
Expect VFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley today through tonight as a 500mb ridge across north-central Mexico and Tropical Depression Cristobal across northeast Louisiana this afternoon continue to provide subsidence across western portions of South Texas. /issued 342 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across north- central Mexico and Cristobal across southeast Louisiana moving northward today will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas into deep South Texas today. A 500mb trough across the western United States today will move eastward into the central plains Tuesday. This will allow a weak cold front to move into South Texas Tues afternoon. Minor coastal flooding is expected again along the lower Texas coast this morning as water levels rise to 1 to 1.
As the upper ridge begins to slide to the east today, this will allow Cristobal to make northward progress towards the forecast area. As for winds with this system, the highest wind gusts will be over our Illinois counties with majority of models in Bufkit indicating momentum transfer will bring down gusts to the surface up to 40 mph in this area, especially Tuesday afternoon.
Warmer and drier conditions will return over the next few days.
A hot and breezy day is ahead for the region, as a much warmer airmass advects into the region under what should be a nearly cloudless sky. 850 temps are expected to surge to 21-22C today, which supports surface temps in the low 90s for inland locations. Fairly strong winds in the 925 and 850 mb layer will likely keep the lake breeze from making much progress inland, so only those areas very close to Lake Michigan will see a reprieve from warmer temps. Expect lows in the low to mid 60s.
957 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A cold front across our area will stall today before slowly dissipating into Tuesday.
Current satellite imagery shows a large low pressure circulation centered over the Northern Rockies. Precipitation will continue well into tonight as this low pressure system slides east today. A weak, broad ridge moves into the Northern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon.
Building high pressure and reduced onshore flow will result in a warming trend through midweek, with temperatures forecast to climb back to seasonal averages or slightly above. Another trough arriving late in the week will push temperatures back below normal. Skies remain mostly clear across our region early this morning as the low levels remain well mixed. Meanwhile, an upper ridge currently centered offshore along 135W is forecast to shift eastward today, warming the airmass over our area as it draws closer. The combination of drier air, lighter onshore flow, and building high pressure aloft will kick off a warming trend today. Highs today are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer then yesterday. Up to an additional 10 degrees of warming is forecast for Tuesday as the upper ridge builds directly over California and onshore flow weakens further.
512 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday, when temperatures may reach or top 90 degrees for many areas.
Warmer and dryer conditions are expected on Tuesday, with lighter winds. The Low will continue to eject towards the northeast today and showers will decrease as it does so. Highs will be in the 50's to the lower 60's and gusty winds can be expected in eastern Nevada, especially in northeastern Elko County. Lows tonight will begin to rebound as the unseasonably cold air mass can not maintain itself, and some valleys in western Nevada will be in the lower 40's. Frost Advisories may be necessary for one last night in eastern Nevada, however, as some valleys approach freezing, though temps will not be as cold as they are this morning. Ridging begins to build in on Tuesday, and dry conditions will bring temperatures into the mid 60's to the upper 70's and winds will finally be lighter.
"Cristobal" inland from the central Gulf Coast and the Atlantic high pressure ridge, whose axis extends to just north of the Bahamas. 1" , increased insolation compared to the last several days, and local mesoscale sea/lake breeze boundaries will result in scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms this afternoon and early evening, with the highest coverage inland from late afternoon through around sunset. Today's storm motion will be slower as a mid-upper ridge builds over the state, resulting in some storms producing 1-3" of rain. Low level flow will become light-calm tonight as the ridge weakens/ retreats eastward.
Today, upper ridging is holding on above the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure remains.
650 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A cold front across our area will stall today before slowly dissipating into Tuesday.
500 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 WV imagery tonight depicts a jet streak lifting through the Dakotas along the ern periphery of a broad wrn trof. Cooler sfc temps with little change in midlevel temps will make it difficult for us to generate any SB/MLCAPE across most zones. Possible exceptions would be portions of nern WY/far wrn SD as cooler midlevel temps arrive by mid-late aftn or over far s cntrl SD in the vicinity of the fnt, where persistent convergence could allow the cap to break. Atop the cooler, post-frontal boundary layer, moistening low-to- mid levels and cooling midlevel temps should contribute to the development of appreciable MUCAPE across much of s cntrl/potentially swrn SD through the evening and into the overnight.
West of the trough temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs in the mid 60s and along/east of the trough warm once again with temperatures in the mid 80s.
A deep upper level trough will move into the lee side of the Rockies by Tuesday. We still anticipate a rather large ridge developing over the Rockies and it will expand east into the central CONUS over the back half of the week and the weekend. This will keep the region rather dry and what looks to be on the warm side but nothing too hot with highs only in the lower 90s. Only real gustiness over the last 4 hours has been to the terminals obviously east of the low.
Highs across the Greater Houston are will be in the low to mid 90's with heat indices about 105 across the area.
In regards to the rain, generally dry conditions will persist through tonight as high pressure remains in control. Rain/storm chances will slightly increase Tuesday afternoon as a mid to upper level trough moves into the Central Plains sending an associated frontal boundary into the region late in the period.
346 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 The slowly-departing widespread low pressure system is still in control over the region. By early Tuesday morning, the low pressure trough axis will have moved eastward enough to carry organized convective activity with it away from eastern Montana. The middle and later portions of the week will be characterized by a warmer and calmer weather pattern. Mostly clear and sunny skies with high pressure in control.
Much cooler today with highs 15 degrees or so cooler than yesterday. Maybe a good day for fishing? TFJ The slowly-departing widespread low pressure system is still in control over the region. By early Tuesday morning, the low pressure trough axis will have moved eastward enough to carry organized convective activity with it away from eastern Montana. The middle and later portions of the week will be characterized by a warmer and calmer weather pattern. Mostly clear and sunny skies with high pressure in control.
357 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Unseasonably cool temperatures with a good chance of showers across the region today as an upper level low pressure system tracks across Montana today. Upper low is showing up very nicely on satellite and radar over western Montana early this morning. Any thunderstorms today will be weak, but may produce small hail due to the very cold temperatures aloft (-24C @ 500mb) associated with the upper low. Temperatures will remain in the 60s most locations while a northwest wind gusting to 30 mph will make it feel cooler.
809 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday, when temperatures may reach or top 90 degrees for many areas.
A cold upper low moved overhead yesterday and brought clouds and rainfall to most of the forecast area. Upper ridging will move overhead today, bringing a mix of clouds and sunshine along with warming temperatures.
Otherwise, downsloping flow and deep ridging will promote abundant heating which could push max temps slightly higher than yesterday with heat indices in the upper 90s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 73 88 73 87 / 30 30 60 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 90 73 88 / 10 10 30 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 89 73 87 / 10 10 40 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 65 89 68 87 / 10 10 40 20 60.
Cooler temperatures, gusty southwest through west winds and critical fire weather conditions will occur yet again today, especially east of Flagstaff. The dry and cool air associated with this pattern will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the high country tonight.
Otherwise, overcast skies will limit heating, allowing temperatures to warm only into the low to mid 80s later today.
228 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving through the western and central zones this afternoon as an upper trough is over Montana. The upper trough will move east into the Dakotas Tuesday but a vort max will develop another cluster of showers/tstorms Tuesday afternoon mainly over the northeastern zones by the afternoon.
High pressure will dominate through Tuesday, but a weak cold front associated with an upper level trough over the Central Plains will move across the area Tuesday night.
Otherwise, downsloping flow and deep ridging will promote abundant heating which could push max temps slightly higher than yesterday with heat indices in the upper 90s. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 88 73 87 63 / 30 60 40 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 73 88 63 / 10 30 30 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 89 73 87 62 / 10 30 30 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 68 87 60 / 10 40 20 60 40.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week and into the weekend as another weakening cold front moves into the area and stalls near the SC coast. Models indicate another trough will move into the region as Cristobal lifts north on Tuesday. MOS consensus indicate overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
A strong cold front will move across the area Tuesday accompanied by gusty west- northwesterly winds in the morning and into the afternoon hours. Lows should be in the low 70s area-wide.
Expect this area to expand through this evening as the upper level system moves into Colorado and cuts off an upper low near the 4 corners area. Meanwhile a strong cold front will sweep across the CWA this evening with pretty gusty winds behind it for a time. The low pressure system will move into the central plains Tuesday with the pcpn ending over most of the CWA by Tuesday afternoon. Will still need to watch for the potential for strong winds especially over the southern Panhandle though it still appears the winds will be limited by rain and cooler temps.
Visible satellite shows some patches of cu and strato-cu persist in the lowest levels moving north, with some altostratus in the mid levels moving east. This is because in the lowest levels, a low level high pressure resides to our east near the Bahamas, while in the mid levels a ridge sits to our south over Cuba. Lastly in the upper levels, a ridge sits to our southwest over the Yucatan Channel.
250 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Upper low (northern branch of split flow) is over Montana sliding slowly NE today with some wrap around effect precipitation spreading into our western zones early this afternoon. Favorable dynamics out in front of the upper low is producing a little convection in our eastern zones as well. Precipitation across the region will decline after midnight as the upper low over us shifts NE out of ur area and southern branch in central Rockies pushes east.
1131 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 WV imagery tonight depicts a jet streak lifting through the Dakotas along the ern periphery of a broad wrn trof. Cooler sfc temps with little change in midlevel temps will make it difficult for us to generate any SB/MLCAPE across most zones. Possible exceptions would be portions of nern WY/far wrn SD as cooler midlevel temps arrive by mid-late aftn or over far s cntrl SD in the vicinity of the fnt, where persistent convergence could allow the cap to break. Atop the cooler, post-frontal boundary layer, moistening low-to- mid levels and cooling midlevel temps should contribute to the development of appreciable MUCAPE across much of s cntrl/potentially swrn SD through the evening and into the overnight.
These strong winds are emanating from strong Pacific high pressure building through the Rockies in the wake of 995mb low pressure across KS. There is little change in the POP forecast tonight through Tuesday except that the storm system is slower and producing a prolonged period of warp-around rain Tuesday associated with an inverted h700mb trof across Nebraska, deformation and mid level frontogenesis.
1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 As a deep trough moves from the western US into the Great Plains, an area of low pressure over the Dakotas will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms early this morning and again overnight Monday to northeastern Minnesota. Daytime heating combined with the high humidity across the region could result in heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the afternoon and early evening, although heat advisories are not likely. Northeasterly winds off Lake Superior will keep areas adjacent to the lake cooler. Scattered showers and storms look to develop along a weak cold front over northwestern MN in the late afternoon/early evening hours while moving in a northeasterly direction. There is a lot of variability in the high res models about how far east the showers and storms will spread.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 40s west to the lower 50s east.
Dewpoints across the CWA continue to be in the lower/middle 70s.
However, winds to become southerly and increase to around 15 to 20 mph again on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front that will move across the ArkLaTex on Tuesday evening. Temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected tonight with high temperatures on Tuesday to climb into the low to mid 90s. Otherwise, post-frontal temps behind the cold front to range from lows around 60 across SE Oklahoma to the upper 60s across central Louisiana on Tuesday night.
302 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure will move offshore on Tuesday leading to increasing warmth and humidity.
419 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Upper ridging from the Atlantic Coast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will continue to break down as the wave associated with Cristobal migrates northward across the lower-mid Mississippi Valley. Into the afternoon, isolated to scattered storms are expected to fire along a warm front as well as the higher terrain, away from the greater upper level forcing associated with the troughing farther west.
200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 "Quiet before the storm" tonight as mid-level ridge of high pressure holds across the area.
We will likely downgrade the High Surf Warning to a High Surf Advisory through midday tomorrow.
Associated rain bands wrapping around the low are expected to spread into West Central Arkansas by mid afternoon and expand in coverage over Northwest Arkansas into far Eastern Oklahoma through this evening. The higher QPF signal through this afternoon is expected to remain over the eastern fringes of the CWA and thus will continue with ongoing flash flood watch for parts of Northwest Arkansas. afternoon temps in the lower 90s should be common underneath scattered to broken high clouds.
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure will persist across the area through this evening. A warm front will lift north of the area on Tuesday, bringing warm and humid air along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Building high pressure and reduced onshore flow will result in a warming trend through midweek, with temperatures forecast to climb back to seasonal averages or slightly above. Another trough arriving late in the week will push temperatures back below normal. The clear skies are thanks to building high pressure from the west. The building high pressure is also producing a warming and drying trend around the region this afternoon.
Overnight low temps and dewpoints will hold in the lower to mid 70s. Moving on, a prefrontal trough will push eastward on Tuesday night and bring a few more showers and perhaps a tstm or two.
Tonight, a brief ridge of high pressure will cause a decreasing trend in cloud cover. Higher confidence exists for areas along the Divide to reach freezing tonight, particularly for areas that saw snowfall earlier this morning. Less cloud cover will lead to cooler temperatures and a higher impact to sensitive outdoor plants.
A cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Kind of expect a repeat of yesterday, with early initiation along the warm frontal boundary where warm air advection is maximized leading to storm initiation, while in the warm sector initiation will take longer and require synoptic forcing to spread into the region from the next upper wave to overcome warmer mid-level temperatures. Tuesday precip concerns and placement across MN will revolve on tropical disturbance remnants blocking the flow and placement of trough axis.
257 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure across the area today will move offshore tonight and Tuesday.
Fair weather for the next 24 hours with an upper-level ridge overhead. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with locations in the south and west nearing 90 degrees.
In response, the attendant surface cyclone across Kansas will rapidly deepen and accelerate toward the Midwest as it phases with the remnants of Cristobal. As the surface cyclone accelerates toward the northeast, surface winds will veer to the west with a dryline and then to the northwest as a cold front moves through the area. The deepening surface cyclone, increasing surface pressure gradient, and vertical mixing will result in strong, gusty winds.
By Tuesday morning, expect widespread dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to be in place across the area, with PWATs increasing to the 1. Storm chances will be in play Tuesday night as Cristobal is absorbed into a fairly complex upper trof over the Plains.
Highs across the Greater Houston area will be in the low to mid 90's with heat indices about 105 across the area.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through tonight, resulting in dry conditions. However, that ridge will begin to break down early Tuesday morning as the remnants of Cristobal push into the Missouri Valley.
Stronger mid level speed max rotates around back side of the low by evening and while this is after the time of optimal mixing, strong gusts will likely persist through the evening and possibly overnight.
132 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Depression Cristobal will move north through the Mississippi Valley today and tonight ahead of a large low pressure system moving east from the Plains.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week and into the weekend as another weakening cold front moves into the area and stalls near the SC coast. A mid/upper level ridge will remain over the region through tonight. MOS consensus indicate overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation highlight the short term period. On Tuesday, a S/WV trough will swing east into the Northern Plains, and should spark scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler for Tuesday and breezy, with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s.