Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
but the main features affecting the CWA where a ridge that extended from Manitoba SSW to NM. and the trof over the Wrn USA. The Srn half of the ridge axis will remain in place thru tomorrow. The low currently over the Gulf of AK will be forced SE into the Pac NW Fri- Sat. This will shove the Wrn ridge back over the Plns Fri. The flow will shift to SW Sat-Mon as the ridge conts E. The model spread develops with how deep the Wrn trof will be Sun-Mon. The question is how much trofiness will linger to its SW? Svrl GEFS members suggest a closed low could form. but exact timing will depend on what happens with the upr trof.
1146 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 The ridge axis that was over us yesterday has now shifted to the front range thanks to an approaching trough. This trough is supported by a jet streak which will remain over the northern rockies while we see very little upper level influence to our weather. Even so, thicknesses do indicate that this trough will just barely brush our forecast area. For Tuesday, high pressure, centered over southern AZ and NM, will build back in as the trough shifts east. Enough moisture will remain under the high to allow some afternoon convection to fire yet again.
Another mid level wave approaches from the south well after midnight and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rain continues through the day on Tuesday as the cold front pushes southward through the Tennessee Valley and into Central AL. The placement of the low early on Tuesday keeps us in the warm sector ahead of the cold front passage later in the day.
Early afternoon satellite imagery together with RAP13 surface analysis identified an area of high pressure across Ontario Canada. The divergent, anticyclonic flow associated with this ridge brought cooler air and slightly more moist across the region which kept today's high temperatures in check.
High pressure will slowly work its way south from the Midwest as an upper low continues to pinwheel around the eastern Great lakes and upper Ohio Valley regions. Much drier conditions will filter south into the lower Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon.
Water vapor imagery shows a closed 500 mb low pressure centered over northeast Texas into Louisiana and a mid-level trough axis extending south from this low this afternoon. A weak perturbation rounding the western periphery of the mid to upper low should provided some lift with this unstable atmosphere for the next several hours.
456 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 High pressure will continue through the period with max temps remaining 10-15 degrees above normal.
A cold front is pretty much out of the area. The high- resolution models show some convection moving out of NE Wyoming and into Carter County.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-level ridging from the Rockies to the Appalachians, save for an embedded weak upper low centered over western OK, as well as an embedded trough in western ON. A weak 850mb low was centered in OK, embedded within a central US ridge that extended from NE through central SD to northwest ND. The upper-level trough in ON will drop southward, dragging cooler temperatures into the upper Midwest to Great Lakes.
A compact low pressure system dropping through the region may bring some increase in mid cloud, as well as a lower probability for showers early tonight. Below normal temperatures over the next several days as the cold core upper level low (-24 C at 500 MB) currently just southwest of James Bay tracks through Lake Huron today, and into the Eastern Great lakes tonight/tomorrow. Heart of the cool air in the low levels in place on Tuesday, as 925 mb temps hold in the upper single numbers, and should be looking at highs holding in the 60s, with northern thumb region holding in the upper 50s.
147 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front over the area will move off to the southeast today. A trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through mid week.
406 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Low pressure over southern Virginia and the associated cold front will slowly push through the region tonight.
An upper low will be moving across the northern Gulf Coast though Tuesday and this will keep things wet for at least the next 24 to 36 hours. Unlike other nights, tonight the showers and storms will continue and develop even more as the upper low moves closer to the forecast area.
455 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Low pressure over southern Virginia and the associated cold front will slowly push through the region tonight.
Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue across the forecast area through the overnight hours as an upper level trough swings through and a cold front approaches. H5 troughing over the eastern third of the U.
316 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Southward moving west-east boundary centered near I-70 at this time is more of a dew point boundary than true cold front. This boundary has much warmer temperatures at this time to its north, and like several of the CAMS were showing, has initiated isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area later tonight in the wake of the front with northeast low level flow bringing cooler air into the region overnight and thru the day on Tuesday. Also raised highs a bit tomorrow from the previous forecast in light of warmer upstream readings today.
Cold front still north of FA, with water vapor imagery showing upper Low circulation center over Texas, with super saturated advection of deep seeded moisture wide open from the Gulf northward and across the mid Mississippi river valley. Model soundings show best/deepest isentropic upglide/moist advection this morning, with a drop-off thereafter, even though diurnally destabilizing atmosphere means storm chance will continue til cold front makes passage there this evening/overnight. We'll let Pops ride thru the front's passage during the evening, then drop them into silent range after fropa overnight, as the by then south Texas Low is pinched off by the Ohio river valley vort and cold front's passage.
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will makes it way into central Missouri this evening and through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Highs will top off in the lower to mid 80s.
428 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will move through the region this evening. A large upper level low pressure system will then meander across the upper Ohio Valley through much of the rest of the week. Line of storms along pre-frontal trough will continue to track south through the late afternoon and exit the region early this evening. Other storms have developed in an area of convergence near the Ohio-Indiana border closer to the cold front. Area will be between high pressure in the western Great Lakes and an inverted trough along the Appalachians through the period.
An upper low centered over the northern part of the Great Lakes has a surface front laying almost horizontal across the Midwest. The base of the second upper low was moving east through the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast. Earlier cloud cover and rain limited temperatures early today but over the last few hours with some breaks in the lower and mid level clouds, temps have been able to rise into the lower 70s, near 80 in some spots. A few breaks in the clouds tomorrow could lead to highs a deg or two higher than Monday, in the lower 80s. Much drier air will move in by Tuesday night with cooler air approaching from the north.
203 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A mid level ridge axis will remain just w of the central NM mtns leaving the CWFA within NW-N flow aloft thru Thur, a general favored flow for nocturnal storms for areas n of I-20. In this particular case the fetch of the NW component is not very long and thus a little more difficult for definitive shrtwv trofs to track thru the flow. Wed night SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos are the favored areas, less signal Thur night? In the meantime, NW flow does not favor the development of the low level thermal ridge and thus high temps will mostly remain seasonal thru Thur. Mid level ridge axis will finally move e on Fri pushing high temps above normal, probably well above across SE NM/W PB, with drier air through Monday.
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 The mid/upper-level low that has brought unsettled weather the last few days has shifted into northeast Texas; however, isolated to scattered showers continue near the northwest periphery of the low, primarily across southeast Oklahoma.
209 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 The airmass across the region through Tuesday will be moist and unstable ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Look for highs in the lower to mid 90s. The low dewpoints in the 40s have made it easier for temperatures to climb. Weak high pressure extended from the western Great Lakes into the lower Missouri Valley at 07Z with mainly clear skies across the region this morning. More expansive high cloud cover was located to the south from southeast Kansas across much of Missouri in association with rather broad cut off upper low over the southern plains. High pressure will dominate the forecast area today with a warm front developing from the western Dakotas into central Nebraska during the afternoon in advance of low pressure moving across southern Saskatchewan. A cold front extending from the low will move into the western Dakotas and far western Nebraska tonight with scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front.
We will see another round of thunderstorms tomorrow as the pesky upper low that has been bringing wave after wave of thunderstorms the past few days slides across the northern gulf coast and pushes a cold front through the region. Behind the front, drier and slightly cooler air will filter into the region for the latter half of the week.
Will continue to see sunny skies with highs ranging from the 80s east to the lower 90s over central SD. The 500mb ridge will continue to build overhead through this evening, before becoming surpressed as a trough swings across south central Canada and ND.
Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon and evening courtesy of upper low the north/northeast. Deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS predictions generally agree with the position/timing of the upper low during the period. The upper low is predicted to move slowly EWD during the period with associated subsidence increasing over the WRN CWA this afternoon then areawide Tonight/Tuesday. Expect the combination of the upper low/moisture to contribute to scattered convection Today confined mainly to the ERN CWA/MSA (increasing subsidence WRN CWA. ) As the upper low moves east Tonight/Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary is expected to move across the CWA/MSA.
High pressure will continue to bring minimal clouds and warm temperatures inland again on Tuesday.
A cold front will exit the area this evening, ending rain chances.
/Issued 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ An upper low over the ArkLaTex region in conjunction with an additional system pushing southward through the Great Lakes continues to put our region squarely under a moist southwest flow aloft. Additionally, a cold front will begin to push into north Georgia tonight which will concentrate further shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures today will be limited to the lower to mid 80s for most areas, while many locations will struggle to reach 80 degrees on Tuesday. RW The upper trough that has been sitting over the lower Mississippi Valley will fill as an upper low drops out of southeast Canada and moves into Pennsylvania. This will pick up the weakening low over the lower Mississippi Valley and and move it rapidly out of the CWA.
A fairly benign period of inactive weather is expected the next several days as high pressure builds over the western USA.
314 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Not much to talk about in the short term with high pressure continuing overhead. Upper-level ridge over the region will be squeezed between an approaching trough from the Canadian Prairies and the departing low over the central and eastern Great Lakes.
At 21z, an inverted h850mb trof stretches from Ogallala to Ainsworth and this is expected to be the focus for thunderstorm development. High pressure ridging will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into the Rockies though the end of the week. This generates weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge across our area.
Models are in good agreement with high pressure slowly sliding southeast into the region tonight and Tuesday.
222 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Upper low drifting into heart of cwa with rotation of movement of developing convection clearly seen around center of low. Pops to taper gradually from the nw overnight thru Tue as low drifts sewd, with the exception of higher aftn pops on Tue over north central LA, where aftn heating invok frontal boundary moving thru late in day trailing upper low.
257 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 High pressure will continue through the period with max temps remaining 10-15 degrees above normal.
In the middle to upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with streamline analysis as of 300 pm depicts a strong middle and upper cyclone migrating southeastwards across the Arklatex Region. A 50-75 knot jet at 250 mb rounds the base of the trough from the SW Gulf Coast northeastwards then decelerates over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, becoming increasingly diffluent over much of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. Northeast of that, broad surface ridging remains across the Florida Peninsula and the Western Atlantic.
1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area today as the slow moving mid/upper trough shears eastward away from the area. Both take the mid/upper ridge across the Rockies and translate it eastward through the weekend. Other than some diurnally driven storms drifting eastward off the high plains late in the week, we expect to see rising temperatures and mostly dry conditions by the weekend. Highs may climb into the lower 90s with lows in the low 70s. Strong and severe storms will likely accompany this trough as it moves across the central CONUS in the Mon-Tue timeframe as deep layer shear becomes more favorable.
Cooler with a chance of showers for the latter half of the week. Dry and warm weather continues today with upper level ridging, with current temperatures about 3 to 8 degrees higher than yesterday. Elsewhere, afternoon highs should be a little warmer than today as the ridge builds more, with Valley highs in the mid to lower 90s.
Another quiet and warm day as the influences of the upper level high pressure ridge continue. Yet, upper air analysis is now showing the ridge axis shifting east and allowing more of a cyclonic flow pattern to exist over the West Coast.
150 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move southeast today. A slow moving cold front will cross the local area tonight.
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Tonight and Tuesday: An elongated upper-level low pressure system over East Texas could be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon. A cold front is still expected to push south through the forecast area tomorrow as the upper low pivots eastward, with drier air and lower rain chances working into northern parts of the area by the afternoon.
/issued 327 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ One more day to deal with the upper low and its associated showers and thunderstorms before the low shifts southeast of the area.
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Aviation Cooler and mainly dry weather can be expected through midweek as Canadian high pressure builds south into the western Great Lakes Region. It will be breezy today and Tuesday due to a low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes. Low clouds are becoming more widespread early this morning as cooler air mass oozes south via north-northeast winds. Some isolated showers may develop during peak heating east of highway 131 as the upper low and cold pool drop south down Lake Huron. Main impacts from the upper low over the eastern Great Lakes Region on Tuesday will be over the eastern parts of lwr Michigan. Clouds should be more extensive around LAN/JXN with cooler high temperatures while areas west of Highway 131 will be partly sunny to mostly sunny and a bit warmer.
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Cooler and much drier air is advecting into central IL behind a cold front now moving into the I-70 corridor.
/issued 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ A mid level ridge axis will remain just w of the central NM mtns leaving the CWFA within NW-N flow aloft thru Thur, a general favored flow for nocturnal storms for areas n of I-20. In this particular case the fetch of the NW component is not very long and thus a little more difficult for definitive shrtwv trofs to track thru the flow. Wed night SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos are the favored areas, less signal Thur night? In the meantime, NW flow does not favor the development of the low level thermal ridge and thus high temps will mostly remain seasonal thru Thur. Mid level ridge axis will finally move e on Fri pushing high temps above normal, probably well above across SE NM/W PB, with drier air through Monday.
Mesoanalysis shows roughly 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE over much of the forecast area, with the highest values along and east of the Laramie Range. The cold front is just to our northwest and moving slowly southeast. The focus for strongest convection on Tuesday will remain south in Colorado as we'll be about a good 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A weak cold front is located approximately from Macomb to Danville this morning, separating cooler and drier air to the north from warmer and moister air to the south. 00Z models have trended warmer with highs today in the 85-90F range with mostly sunny skies. Fair weather expected tonight as front pushes south across KY and weak Canadian high pressure of 1020 mb settles southward into the upper MS river valley. NNE winds bring cooler lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s, with Lawrenceville near 60F.
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Widely scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are likely to continue this afternoon in to late this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves across in to Louisiana from SE Texas. Convective activity should die down tonight as the axis of the upper level low shifts to the east.
149 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected for the first half of the week as upper low pressure settles over the region. As of 12pm, very faint radar echoes northwest of Pittsburgh suggest the location of the cold front. The NCAR ensemble, 4 km NMM/ARW, and HRRR all show good agreement in a lull in precipitation later in the morning followed by convection developing along the cold front early this afternoon and tracking to the southeast. The short term period will feature the further digging of a very cold upper low over the Eastern CONUS with the latest solutions indicating the cutoff center over the NY/PA border by Tuesday.
Upper trough axis/'cold' front moves through and into the Gulf by midnight so will need to keep an eye on s/w rotating around the back side of the low late tonight/Tuesday for redevelopment of storms.
Latest analysis shows area well ahead of both surface and upper level trough with precipitable water across the region in both GOES-16 retrievals as well as blended SSMI/AMSU/SSMI products running around 2 inches which is close to the 95% percentile for this time of the year.
Although a compact short wave/PV anomaly will move through the Great Lakes its influence will not reach this far south and west keeping Iowa weather more driven by broad upper level ridging from the southern Rockies into Manitoba and Ontario. /Tuesday night through Monday/ The main themes in this period will be increased humidity and slightly warmer temperatures.
151 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered showers accompany an upper level low through much of the workweek.
149 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front dropping south across Ohio will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
/issued 441 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The upper trough that has been bringing us rain over the last several days will continue to drift southeast toward the Texas coast.
354 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A Pacific cold front moves through this morning. With an upper low parked over Hudson Bay pushing a large scale trough into central Canada and US, Nebraska remains in northwest flow aloft for the next several days. ridge and surface cold fronts result in a couple decent shots of precip and winter-like conditions. A weak H7 wave passes through the area behind the cold front. Made little change to highs as they're toward the cooler end of guidance, which is reasonable given cloud coverage and weak CAA.
130 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A warm front will surge through the region early today. A much warmer southerly flow is expected this afternoon through Thursday night.
/Issued 314 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ Wedge of high pressure over the state will begin to erode Wednesday as frontal system approaches from the northwest. This shift in the center of high pressure ridge will allow the cold air dam to erode, promoting subsidence and better insolation over the state Wednesday. As a result, expect warmer temperatures Wednesday, with highs nearly 20 degrees warmer in some areas than they are this afternoon. With approaching cold front, pops increase over northwest Georgia by Wednesday afternoon.
427 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 -Heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms are possible possible this afternoon through early Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. In addition to ample deep layer moisture, the 00Z KLCH sounding indicated a freezing level around 14 kft. Similar warm cloud layer depth is expected to persist this afternoon through tonight which will allow for effective rainfall production in convection that develops along and ahead of the cold front. The overall model consensus is for average rainfall totals of 2-5 inches across the region with the highest totals across the Texas Lakes Region into Central Louisiana. The cold front should clear the region late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon and result in improving conditions.
As the cold front exits the region this morning strong cold air advection will kick in. High pressure and much colder temperatures will settle in over the area tonight.
Strengthening high pressure over the region will result in a continued warming trend through Thursday with daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.
The upper jet continues to push through the Mid MS Valley south and east of an extended PV trough from NM into the Great Lakes. Underneath, the 08z surface analysis places high pressure just north of the Quad Cities producing favorable conditions for fog development, especially north and west of the mid and high clouds.
Rain chances remain tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region.
508 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure is bringing quiet weather this morning. Clouds will increase from west by aftn and there may be light rain showers into the west ahead of approaching cold front. Since more open water has developed over western Lk Superior in the last couple days, increasing moisture up to H85-H8 and H85 temps of -14c will support at least isolated lake effect, especially in the higher terrain of the west and maybe the north central. Strongest winds up to 30 kts are expected this weekend as low pressure system tracks across Upper Great Lakes.
Disturbance moves southward during the day with an associated cold front. The highest PoPs will move from the Palmer Divide later in the afternoon onto the plains in the evening.
There should be a little less moisture and wind to work with this time, and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.