Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low level trajectories were emanating from the remnant arctic high across much of Kansas, thus despite the south winds, temperatures struggled to reach mid 30s across much of central Kansas. This will lead to another cold front passage late morning to early afternoon across southwest Kansas.
South to southwest winds will rise to breezy levels at times on Wednesday, with a cold front to bring a northerly wind shift sometime near the end of the TAF window. Tomorrow will be warmer across the region due to the down-sloping (and therefore, compressional warming) component of a west/west- southwest wind. A weak, dry cold front will sag through the county warning area (CWA) tomorrow afternoon, but the temperature and pressure gradient associated with it will be meager. Winds will shift to the north post-frontal passage, but given weak pressure rises behind the front and the low magnitude of cold air advection, temperatures will only (and fortunately) fall to near freezing tomorrow night.
605 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 Cold and clear conditions will persist through the evening and overnight hours with high pressure centered over the region. Will maintain a warmer west/colder east gradient with low to mid teens east and near 20 west where south winds return by mid to late evening. We may see some increasing cloud cover over our northern counties by late afternoon with temperatures rising well above freezing.
/issued 839 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019/ We are currently watching a cold front push through the area. Currently the cold front is located along a line from Sarasota to Lakeland and Daytona Beach. Behind the front is cooler temperatures, overcast skies, and breezy conditions which is what we should all be waking up to tomorrow morning. The cooler air and breezy conditions will stick around throughout the day tomorrow with the clouds slowly pulling away.
400 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Dry and cold high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and northeast through tonight. The ridge will shift farther east and a trough will develop along the Southeast Coast bringing increased moisture Thursday.
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as Arctic high pressure remains in control. High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. Tonight Through Thursday Over the short term period, primary concern will be cold temperatures tonight, with near-record lows again quite likely, as Arctic high pressure settles in over the region. Temperatures will moderate Wednesday through Thursday, as the high shifts southeastward and surface winds regain a southerly component.
1127 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 Cold and clear conditions will persist through the evening and overnight hours with high pressure centered over the region. Will maintain a warmer west/colder east gradient with low to mid teens east and near 20 west where south winds return by mid to late evening. We may see some increasing cloud cover over our northern counties by late afternoon with temperatures rising well above freezing. The cold front moves across the area with little to no precipitation Wednesday night and brings another reinforcement shot of cooler air to the region for Thursday and Thursday night.
1038 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 A strong cold front has moved off the South Carolina coast.
Will go with below freezing highs over snow covered areas, to the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. A cold front will push through the region tonight, with winds switching out of the northwest and lows dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s.
Weak upper trough passing through our CWA this evening with lots of clouds but little if any pcpn. The trough will exit east overnight and clouds will decrease.
205 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 A strong cold front has moved off the South Carolina coast.
155 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 Water vapor shows upper wave moving into the Northern Plains with upper ridge axis just offshore the Pac NW. Surface trof has advanced into the eastern Dakotas. Upper ridge will build into the Northern Rockies over the next few days, with mainly dry northwest flow and warming temps over our region.
1123 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 Building high pressure should end any remaining snow showers overnight. Dry weather is then expected under the high Increasing subsidence under building high pressure should result in a gradual end to the remaining snow showers across the region overnight. The coldest areas across OH and the WV/MD ridges should see single digit lows. 850mb warm advection commences during the afternoon, but this will likely happen too late to allow temperatures to rise above freezing for most of the CWA. Cloud cover will then lessen Thursday night as weak high pressure builds in.
232 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An upper trof will move across the northern Plains and Midwest today and tonight with the associated surface cold front moving southeast across Kansas and the central Plains. Warmer south to southwest winds will prevail today though temperatures will still come up a few degrees below seasonal climo this afternoon.
High pressure will slowly slide by, and the upper jet will retreat back north into Canada.
Radar returns starting to increase off to our northwest this evening as upper level lift from a short wave trough approaches. Conditions look cold enough for the precipitation to be snow over most of the area, with the exception of the far southwestern part of the CWA, where there may be a brief period of warmer air above the surface, so cannot rule out a little light freezing rain or sleet along the leading edge of the precipitation shield. High pressure slides back in behind the exiting front late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, bringing a return to dry conditions.
A weak cold front will move through tonight, knocking Thursdays highs down a few degrees.
922 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 Radar returns starting to increase off to our northwest this evening as upper level lift from a short wave trough approaches. Conditions look cold enough for the precipitation to be snow over most of the area, with the exception of the far southwestern part of the CWA, where there may be a brief period of warmer air above the surface, so cannot rule out a little light freezing rain or sleet along the leading edge of the precipitation shield. High pressure slides back in behind the exiting front late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, bringing a return to dry conditions.
242 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Light south winds will continue through 8 am before a cold front enters the western border and pushes across the entire forecast area before 3 pm. Models show temperatures warming to around 60 degrees in the far west, and falling off eastward to the low or mid 50s from Hays to Medicine Lodge. Models have little spread of with respect to afternoon highs and are centered around the low/mid 50s area wide.
342 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Dry and cold high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and northeast through tonight. The ridge will shift farther east and a trough will develop along the Southeast Coast bringing increased moisture Thursday.
Elsewhere a closed upper low was noted over the Gulf of California with upper ridging along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure stretched from the TX gulf coast northeast into the OH river valley. An area of low pressure over the northern high plains was gradually deepening. Forecast soundings only mix the boundary layer to about 875MB and the diminished insolation may make it difficult to get temperatures any warmer. Lows tonight look to fall into the lower and middle 20s as weak cold air advection recommences.
This will keep temperatures from falling to far off the highs from today with lows in the mid teens to low 20s. Wednesday, a cold front will move through the area late in the day however, temperatures will be able to warm some out ahead of it despite increased cloud cover with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The cold front will then pass through the area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Modest CAA behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday despite clearing skies.
Southerly surface winds will gradually increase tonight as high pressure moves out. A weak cold front will begin moving across our terminals after 00Z, resulting in a northerly wind shift with light winds by the end of this forecast period.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will become a bit breezy at times on Wednesday before shifting to a northeasterly component behind a weak cold front by Wednesday evening. Tomorrow will be warmer across the region due to the down-sloping (and therefore, compressional warming) component of a west/west- southwest wind. A weak, dry cold front will sag through the county warning area (CWA) tomorrow afternoon, but the temperature and pressure gradient associated with it will be meager. Winds will shift to the north post-frontal passage, but given weak pressure rises behind the front and the low magnitude of cold air advection, temperatures will only (and fortunately) fall to near freezing tomorrow night.
A strong ridge of of high pressure has promoted a clear sky and as a result temperatures have fallen quickly into the lower 20s as of 03z. Overall, a great night to stay indoors -- and be sure to bring your pets inside! Upper-level flow becomes more zonal midweek, with high pressure shifting off to the east. Another upper-level trough will swing down, impacting the Southeast late this week. This system kind of runs into a low pressure system moving east out of Texas, which will help to block the cold air from getting this far south. Not anticipating much change in the way of temperatures later this week, though stronger high pressure moving in from the desert Southwest will likely bring temperatures back up into the upper 50s, maybe even low 60s this weekend.
850 mb temps go above zero pretty quickly thanks to that zonal flow/weak ridging aloft and the return of southerly flow in the low levels will aid in reaching the 40s today.
Mixing down model temps from the top of the boundary layer results in expected highs ranging from the mid 20s over the northwest mountains, to the mid 30s over the Lower Susq Valley.
Water vapor imagery showing a dry airmass over the region with moisture moving over the upper ridge. Temperatures for Wednesday will be cooler given the passage of the surface cold front with -2 to -3C at 700 mb. This will bring highs into the lower 50s across the plains. Strong northwesterly flow aloft is progged over the CWA Wednesday night as a weak upper trough moves southeastward in the flow.
High pressure continues to push away from the region turning winds with a more westerly component to more southerly around sunrise.
1006 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 A cold front has reached northern Lake and Volusia counties tonight as winds have veered and are now from the northwest and were increasing. As the front pushes south overnight, cooler temperatures will also arrive to east central FL when mid 50s north of I-4, upper 50s to lower 60 for Orlando Metro area and southward across the interior and mid 60s for the Treasure Coast are forecast. Skies will become BKN-OVC at around 010 tonight as a cold front pushes over the terminals.
212 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An upper level low pressure system across western Mexico will move east through tonight passing just south of the Big Bend.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will work into the western Great Basin Wendesday night, then continue east into Utah by Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will move through KGUY and KDHT late Wednesday morning, then across KAMA Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will move through KGUY and KDHT late Wednesday morning, then across KAMA Wednesday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will continue, driving a wind shift and cold front through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Wednesday and Wednesday night.
1218 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 A strong cold front has moved off the South Carolina coast.
246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Light south winds will continue through 8 am before a cold front enters the western border and pushes across the entire forecast area before 3 pm. Models show temperatures warming to around 60 degrees in the far west, and falling off eastward to the low or mid 50s from Hays to Medicine Lodge. Models have little spread of with respect to afternoon highs and are centered around the low/mid 50s area wide.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1030mb high centered over the Ohio Valley that was ridging back to the southwest across the ArkLaTex. Circulation around this ridge was still resulting in a cold northeast wind across our CWA. A few sites have dropped into the teens with the remainder of the area in the low to mid 20s. Our winds aloft will back to the southwest in response to a closed low moving from the Baja region to over Mexico. This will allow temperatures to top out in the upper 40s in our north and in the lower 50s across our south. Normal afternoon highs run from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Temperatures tonight will fall to freezing again along our Highway 82 corridor.
Warmer North and Possible Rain South. For tonight, another weak cold front will move into West Central Texas, from the north.
641 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Dry and cold high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and northeast through tonight. The ridge will shift farther east and a trough will develop along the Southeast Coast bringing increased moisture Thursday.
A cold front then pushes through from northwest to southeast late tonight into Thursday morning, but not before temperatures bottom out in the low to mid-20s. The last few runs of guidance have trended to a slightly later arrival of the front with slightly cooler H8 temps.
The upper low will track east over north Mexico into South Texas and will keep the bulk of the precipitation with it south of the region. The rain chances will come to an during the evening hours on Thursday as the upper level trough pushes this activity out of the area. High temperatures each day will range from the upper 40s to the low 50s. Low temperatures tonight will dip just below freezing for Southeast Oklahoma, much of Southwest Arkansas, and extreme northern sections of East Texas and North Louisiana while mid to upper 30's can be expected elsewhere.
Winds will diminish by this evening, with a wind shift to light northwest overnight as a weak cold front passes. A weak cold front will move through tonight, knocking Thursdays highs down a few degrees.
505 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An approaching cold front an upper level disturbance will spread lots of cloud cover across the region today. temperatures today should be modestly warmer than yesterday as some of the antecedent snowfall has melted. as high pressure descends across the region from the northwest. which is still about 10 degrees below normal but significantly warmer than behind the last frontal passage.
350 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1030mb high centered over the Ohio Valley that was ridging back to the southwest across the ArkLaTex. Circulation around this ridge was still resulting in a cold northeast wind across our CWA. A few sites have dropped into the teens with the remainder of the area in the low to mid 20s. Our winds aloft will back to the southwest in response to a closed low moving from the Baja region to over Mexico. This will allow temperatures to top out in the upper 40s in our north and in the lower 50s across our south. Normal afternoon highs run from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Temperatures tonight will fall to freezing again along our Highway 82 corridor.
Strong southwesterly surface flow will bring temperatures back to above- freezing today, with afternoon highs rising into the low to mid 40s for most of the area, and the mid to upper 30s across northeast Missouri. A cold front will push through the area later tonight, though models continue to keep any precip ahead of the boundary pinned north of the MO/IA border where deeper moisture fields and better dynamics will be present. Slightly cooler temps are expected Thursday in the wake of the frontal boundary, though going forward, overall temperature trends are much more favorable for fall.
Light south winds will continue through 8 am before a cold front enters the western border and pushes across the entire forecast area before 3 pm. Models show temperatures warming to around 60 degrees in the far west, and falling off eastward to the low or mid 50s from Hays to Medicine Lodge. Models have little spread of with respect to afternoon highs and are centered around the low/mid 50s area wide.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the mid 20s north to around freezing across southern AR.
Ridging, in conjunction with clear skies and southerly flow in the lower levels, will allow us to bounce back into the mid-40s today. By Thursday, another trough will dig south quickly from the Plains and bring a reinforcing cold front with it.
A cold front will shift gusty south winds today to north this evening and overnight.
Some patchy ice may still linger this morning due to last night's freezing rain, but very little additional precipitation is expected today. High pressure will be at its strongest tonight and Thursday and thus, valley fog and/or stratus will likely become more of an issue late tonight through Thursday morning.
/issued 212 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ An upper level low pressure system across western Mexico will move east through tonight passing just south of the Big Bend.
540 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 /12Z TAFS/ Gusty south winds at KABI and KSJT develop mid morning and continue into mid afternoon, as a lee trough develops. Warmer North and Possible Rain South. For tonight, another weak cold front will move into West Central Texas, from the north.
517 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An upper trof will move across the northern Plains and Midwest today and tonight with the associated surface cold front moving southeast across Kansas and the central Plains. Warmer south to southwest winds will prevail today though temperatures will still come up a few degrees below seasonal climo this afternoon.
This will be in response to an area of high pressure sliding across our region on Thursday. By Thursday night, a trough of low pressure and attendant precipitation will wash ashore across the Pacific northwest, and flow aloft will turn southwesterly across SE Idaho Thursday night in response to the approaching trough. For our area though, no precipitation is expected through Thursday night, and temperatures will gradually warm under the presence of the high pressure ridge. With the high pressure overhead Thursday, forecast soundings indicate the presence of a strong inversion that may be stubborn in mixing out during the afternoon, perhaps resulting in some air quality concerns.
This will be followed by a weak cold front this evening which will lower temperatures back down below seasonal averages for Thursday.
So will keep the High Wind Warning going for these areas. Another upper level ridge will attempt to build north on Thursday, with afternoon temperatures returning to the 50s across most locations under mostly sunny skies. This ridge will gradually flatten out as the feature translates eastward across the Front Range and into the Great Plains.
Current surface obs underneath the highest radar returns over parts of southwest and south central South Dakota have been rain up to this point. Therefore, freezing rain potential remains minimal. Further north, cooler air has moved in and p-type is expected to be snow. Precipitation should exit quickly this afternoon as high pressure quickly moves in. High pressure sticks around well into Thursday, with seasonal temperatures expected Thursday afternoon. Will start things off with high pressure over Nebraska/Iowa, headed away from the CWA, with return flow and warm advection. There could be a backdoor cold front headed into western Minnesota, but would only influence temperatures for the far northeast CWA.
411 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 A very cold and dry morning with temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 20s along and north of interstates 10/12. sunny and slightly warmer by this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 50s. This should keep temperatures above freezing for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Warmer this weekend with highs returning to well above average. Current temperatures range from the mid 20s in the mountain valleys to the lower to mid 60s across the milder foothill thermal belts.
407 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An approaching cold front an upper level disturbance will spread lots of cloud cover across the region today. temperatures today should be modestly warmer than yesterday as some of the antecedent snowfall has melted. as high pressure descends across the region from the northwest. which is still about 10 degrees below normal but significantly warmer than behind the last frontal passage.
This will also promote a series of cold fronts keeping the forecast somewhat cool. A period of upper ridging will briefly occur through the upcoming weekend, which will make for decent weather.
517 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 A cold front will move through the TAF sites around mid day. /Issued 346 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ A slight roller coaster in the temperatures again this coming week as the FA sees the passage of a cold front every couple of days or so.
Chances of light snow will continue this morning along the cold front as it advances south, but this precipitation mainly looks to be hit and miss and mainly across the south. As the upper ridge across the western US starts to slowly deamplify and the axis nudges east, decent warm air advection will signal the start of a warming trend.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will work into the western Great Basin tonight, then continue east into Utah by Thursday afternoon.
Strong cold front will continue pushing south into the southern peninsula/FL Straits today. Unseasonably cooler and drier (overall) behind the front with highs recovering only into the 60s north of Orlando with L-M70s southward toward Lake Okeechobee.
Ensemble 500mb heights carve out a ridge translating over the northern High Plains into the end of the week, helping to guide dry weather conditions for the most part as well as milder temperatures. In fact, models point to new ridging building across the western U.
417 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 Water vapor shows upper wave moving into the Northern Plains with upper ridge axis just offshore the Pac NW. Surface trof has advanced into the eastern Dakotas. Upper ridge will build into the Northern Rockies over the next few days, with mainly dry northwest flow and warming temps over our region.
327 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery this morning spinning over Baja California. This low will move across South Texas tonight and Thursday. Ahead of the low expect moisture to increase today with above normal PWATs around 1. PoPs over the Brush Country will shift to the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads tonight as the low moves across. With extensive cloud cover ahead of the upper low, have bumped temperatures down slightly for today, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
520 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 VFR expected through tonight, although there is a possibility of some low ceilings developing late tonight behind a cold front. This will be followed by a weak cold front this evening which will lower temperatures back down below seasonal averages for Thursday.
Other than the increased clouds across the north, some gusty winds near the highest elevations will be the only other indicator of a disturbance.
High pressure has returned behind yesterday's weak cold front, and fog has redeveloped throughout the Lower Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys. A negative tilt trough is present off the CA coast and will track across the region on Thursday.