Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 A negatively tilted ridge axis to our west will flatten leading to zonal flow across the region into Friday. The barometer definitely shows the high with readings early this afternoon in Lubbock showing 30. Despite the high surface pressure, we're still seeing some thick cirrus move into the region from Mexico.
/issued 533 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ 12Z TAFS A cold front will continue to push through the area from north to south this morning. /issued 450 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Current sfc analysis shows the cold front about to enter the nrn portions of the forecast area. The cold front will continue moving swd through the forecast area over the next few hours with the bulk of the precip expected to stay to our east where better moisture/lift is progged. Much cooler temps can be expected tonight with overnight lows dropping to the upper 30s nern zones/lower 40s elsewhere.
331 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 (Tonight and Friday) Much cooler day across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures mainly in the mid 50s. Northeast Big Country northeast of Abilene will see the driest air mass and may be able to fall a couple more degrees to near freezing.
1058 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 High pressure centered over the TX Panhandle at the surface to continue advecting a dry, cold, and stable airmass through Friday with VFR conditions to continue. The cold front mentioned in the previous discussion has finally moved through the region leaving behind cirrus and VFR conditions at all of the TAF sites. /issued 614 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Early this morning a cold front had moved into Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana and Mississippi along/near a line from Natchez, Mississippi to Boyce and Hornbeck, Louisiana and Brookeland and Huntsville, Texas. High pressure on the surface and aloft will spread over the Four State Region today and remain across the area through late Friday providing a break in the rain. Cold air will settle over the area overnight providing freezing temperatures for a few locations.
1220 PM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 19Z water vapor imagery indicated northwest flow across the Tri- State area with short wave ridging in place across the northern rockies. Main concern through the afternoon will once again be fire weather as dry layer aloft has been mixing down much drier air allowing dewpoints to fall into the lower single digits. weather will remain quiet through Friday with temperatures warming into the low 60s by tomorrow afternoon. Friday will be much warmer than the past couple of days, with highs around 60 degrees expected, and will be the warmest for the foreseeable future. Winds will be light as a an upper level short wave ridge moves overhead. Friday night a cold front will move through in the evening.
Cold front has advanced deep into the gulf waters and radar now absent of any precip. This time around however, warmer temperatures will be accompanied by considerable rainfall.
1025 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Cooler air continues to flow into Oklahoma and north Texas this morning. /issued 444 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ The cold front has moved through bringing a slightly cooler, albeit still seasonable, airmass.
121 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 An upper level trough will allow for snow showers across the area today into Friday.
301 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Following the frontal passage from last evening, slightly cooler air was in place for today with a ridge over the area.
1017 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 The cold front will clear the remainder of the CWA within the next half hour.
1038 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 Current surface analysis shows relatively tight pressure gradient remaining over the Northern Plains, between low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and high pressure over the Rockies. Upper level analysis shows deepening trough over the Great Lakes Region and a ridge over the west coast. Mainly quiet weather expected through Friday as ridge to the west eventually moves over the area. Highs on Friday will be above average, mid 30s to upper 40s, as weakening ridge slides over and east of the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): The cold front will quickly pass south of the RGV through the remainder of the afternoon as high pressure quickly builds into TX. Winds will remain rather gusty through the evening but will generally lessen under the influence of the high. Winds will become turn NE to SE through the period a warm front begins lifting north.
314 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 A very dry high pressure system was moving into Mid TN this afternoon with gusty northwest winds. The high pressure system will be the main wx feature through Friday with quiet conditions and gradually diminishing winds.
1020 AM MST Thu Dec 29 2016 Clear skies and generally calm conditions are being reported across the forecast area this morning as a ridge of high pressure temporarily resides over the western CONUS. Under these conditions current temperatures are running in the low to mid teens in the high country, and low to mid 20s in the lower elevations. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 20s to mid 30s in the high country and mid 30s to lower 40s at lower elevations this afternoon. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over the western CONUS with a cut off low centered off the southern California coast.
Trended lows tonight towards the lower end of the guidance envelope with the expectation that temps will fall off when winds subside coincident with the ridge passage. The lack of atmospheric moisture should stymie overnight fog development as the ridge passes.
1154 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 The wintry mix will end this morning as a cold front exits the area. Other than a few spotty rain and snow showers along the ridges and up north, the rest of the region should remain dry until later this afternoon when colder air begins to advect southeastward with a pivoting cold upper trough. Thus, a winter storm warning has been issued for those counties, with advisories extending northward through southwestern pa ridges in westmoreland and fayette counties. In addition to the snow fall, gusty wind with deep mixing through the boundary layer will blow any new snow around, further deteriorating conditions over the high terrain.
154 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front is moving through the region. An upper-level trough will remain overhead tonight into Friday and high pressure will build into the area late Friday through Friday night.
Northwest winds have been gusty this afternoon, and very dry air has worked its way into the region as high pressure now centered over the TX panhandle sinks south and east. A split flow block over Alaska and the Northeast Pacific will force a fairly deep positive-tilt longwave trough over western NOAM.
A rapid transition from a cooler and drier airmass, currently advecting southward across the CWA, towards a warmer and more moist airmass will occur beginning on Friday. A return flow setup with a southerly LLJ between 30 and 35 kts will develop Friday night as the anticyclone weakens and moves quickly ewd.
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday as cool high pressure builds over the area. /EC/ The near term forecast is on track with rain having ended and cooler and drier air continuing to move into the ArkLaMiss region. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the front throughout the day, but temps today will stay near seasonal normals. /NF/ Cool high pressure will move across the area on Friday with highs in the low/mid 50s under partly cloudy skies.
144 PM PST Thu Dec 29 2016 Above normal highs today with weak high pressure aloft.
1140 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 Upper level trough shifting eastward from the Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region early this morning. Fire weather will be main focus the next couple of days both at the front of the high building in today and on the back side of the high on Friday. Over the upcoming weekend, we will be dealing with a closed low (currently) in the Pacific, opening up and bringing in precipitation chances. it will be colder than the past couple of days with cold air advection in the lower levels as the high pressure system builds in.
300 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 The deep upper trough just to our east this afternoon will move steadily eastward, allowing the flow aloft to relax and become zonal by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build eastward to our south.
/Issued 1017 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ The cold front will clear the remainder of the CWA within the next half hour.
Fog and stratus is entrenched over the Lower Treasure Valley and lower valleys of northern Malheur County this morning with inversion well in place. High pressure aloft will continue through tonight with relatively mild air above colder valleys resulting in an inversion and the usual fog in the valleys. On Friday a cold front from the north will spread light snow into our CWA with flurries or light snow as far south as the Treasure Valley by sunset. Friday will be a little milder than today ahead of the approaching cold front.
A cold front approaches the area later today, so will keep VCSH in the TAFS beginning at 21Z and continuing for 3-4 hours.
Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Bordeaux area with a good shot at seeing sustained winds over 40 MPH and gusts around 60 MPH. Models continue to show a ridge axis aloft weakening as it moves across the forecast area tonight and Friday. This will result in zonal flow aloft with much warmer temperatures on Friday due to downslope winds and 700mb temperatures increasing above zero. with the exception of the northern zones as the first of a series of cold fronts begins to move into the area from the north.
The upper level low over the northern Great Lakes will continue to shift east today. Expect slight breezes to develop by mid to late morning as the upper level trough axis swings through the region. Brief ridging on Friday will allow for slightly warmer temps with highs near seasonal norms.
High pressure is now building into Central Alabama this morning and will be in control of the weather through Friday nights.
550 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Quiet short-term forecast as the upper low over the Great Lakes region continues to slide off to the northeast. Any lift generated by the upper low and contributing to flurries yesterday has also shifted far enough out of the region that even where stratus lingers today in northeast MO, should not see any additional flakes fly.
401 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure and cold air/dry advection will continue through today. This will keep high temps in the low 60s today. Cooler temperatures are expected to lead to lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s over more inland areas to mostly 40s in areas south of Lake Pontchartrain and near the coast for tonight into Friday morning.
915 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. High pressure will build in early in the weekend.
935 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Weakening cold front across north central peninsula, still a little north of EC FL as of mid morning.
559 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. High pressure will build in early in the weekend.
Other than some low clouds this morning across far NE TN and SW VA, sunny to mostly sunny conditions and temperatures in the low to mid 50s are expected by the afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 34 57 35 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 32 52 32 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 54 32 53 32 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 30 49 28 / 10 0 10 10.
Forecast daytime highs around 40 degrees are near normal for early December, while overnight lows in the lower 30s are warmer than normal. A large 529 dm 500 mb low pressure perched north of Lake Huron and east of Lake Superior, is forecast to track east into southern Quebec tonight and into Maine and Canadian Marinetimes by sunset Friday. Weak upper level ridging moves into IL by Sat morning while cyclone departs off the Canadian east coast.
434 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Zonal upper level flow will rapidly become southwesterly in orientation today as trough digs into the desert southwest. Precipitation chances increase through the day as well as isentropic lift increases out ahead of the deepening upper level low working ESE across the Baja. After sunset and after cooler air works its way south across the SW Texas Panhandle and NW South Plains, we'll likely see some of that rain change over to snow.
338 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level trough will move southward fm the nrn Rockies as an upper level low develops over Utah by late tonight. Across nern CO the low lvl flow will become light ese with a dry layer abv the sfc. After 09z the lower levles may become more saturated which may lead to a slight chc of light snow in and nr the foothills. The upper trof will continue to dig south and southeast into southern Arizona during the day on Friday as the low becomes closed off.
837 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cold front will move Southeast of the region early this afternoon, with cooler and drier air advecting in. Conditions will continue to trend toward VFR this morning following the passage of a cold front, with VFR expected through the afternoon.
941 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Low pressure is tracking into eastern Canada. A cold front has moved off the east coast.
528 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Quiet conditions in place early this morning, with upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow across the region, as the main low pressure system continues to gradually push east through the Great Lakes region.
421 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Quiet conditions in place early this morning, with upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow across the region, as the main low pressure system continues to gradually push east through the Great Lakes region.
As this high moves into east-central Texas, winds will become south across our area overnight, on the back side of this high. A few locations in low-lying areas and along river valleys could have lows near the freezing mark. On Thursday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will be over Texas, with a large upper low over Canada north of the Great Lakes, and an upper trough beginning to deepen over the western CONUS. Highs will be several degrees warmer than today, and in the lower to mid 60s.
a coastal trough is predicted to develop (GFS ensemble mean adds credence) Tonight/Friday. NAM deterministic predict CAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg Friday afternoon over the SERN CWA/MSA near/south of the trough.
Because of the cloud cover, current temperatures are running warmer than yesterday at this time with readings mainly in the 40s, with a few locations in the lower 50s still. An upper level ridge building over the Eastern Pacific is forecast to gradually move eastward over California by the end of the week.
Frost and below freezing minimum temperatures will occur each night in the coldest locations of the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County desert. A weak short wave trough is currently moving over central California with little more than some mid and high clouds. In the broader synoptic picture, this short wave feature is rounding the base of a much larger upper level trough which will deepen over the Great Basin during the next 24 hours. The high resolution WRF forecasts vertical wind velocities to increase to more than 200 microbars/sec over the Sierra north of Kings Canyon by Friday morning. We are keeping the High Wind Watch in effect for this region and will probably upgrade tje watch to a High Wind Warning later today.
1033 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A cold front along the coast will continue moving offshore as high pressure builds in from the west.
Patch freezing fog will affect northern areas through mid morning.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, a few degrees warmer than seasonal norms. A quasi-zonal flow aloft over the forecast area today will back to the southwest tonight in response to an upper trough digging south over the Desert Southwest.
Web cams around the region suggest this snow is melting on contact with road surfaces in the elevations below 2500 feet but some of the higher terrain in these areas may support accumulations of an inch or so from these showers. /Fugazzi 12Z TAFS: Moist upslope flow from an upper level trough exiting the region to the east today will produce occasional -RASN with no accumulation but with IFR and LIFR ceilings during the morning hours over the KGEG.
536 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Some light precip/drizzle will remain possible through the morning within cyclonic flow aloft, but coverage should gradually decrease as the upper low pulls away.
SKC conditions will likely continue areawide through the period with mid and high clouds returning just after daybreak on Friday and increasing throughout the day in advance of the next major trough carving out across the southwestern CONUS. /issued 225 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ Starting off with cold conditions early this morning with temperatures already as of 2 am in the 30s with many locations only a few degrees from freezing. This due in part to clear skies and ridging at the sfc which is resulting in premium radiational cooling conditions. This ridge will slowly shift eastward today allowing for a southerly component to our winds which will result in a descent warmup this afternoon. disturbances will lift out of the base of this trough.
Today Through Friday Night 09z subjective surface analysis indicates a ridge axis from northeast Louisiana, to east central Texas.
625 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
Latest H5 analysis places the region under nearly zonal flow aloft, with a strong upper low located over southern Ontario and an amplified ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, 06z surface analysis depicts a cold front just inland the Atlantic coast, with high pressure building into the local region behind the feature. Temperatures in the 50s on Thursday will warm to near 60 on Friday as 500 hPa heights increase slightly over the region as an upper trough digs across the southwestern CONUS.
A swath of MVFR/IFR cigs should develop across the Hill Country and into West TX overnight and Friday morning, but expect all of this low stratus to remain well to the west of area TAF sites.
959 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Currently, temperatures are in the lower 40s east of I-65 and mid forties further west. This should keep dewpoints from tanking this afternoon, in the lower 30s today. Brief ridging on Friday will allow for slightly warmer temps with highs near seasonal norms.
The early morning local sounding showed a moderate and veered profile, but VWP from doppler radar indicates the lowest level winds are slackening significantly since that time. A zone update will be issued shortly which will include the lowered chance (30 pop), and advertise variable winds through the afternoon.
456 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Satellite and water vapor imagery continues to show large scale trough centered over the Great Lakes. We still feel the lingering affects of the cold air from this trough, although most of the cold air associated is now mainly over the Pacific northwest to the northern plains and into the midwest.
Accumulations are expected to be low, only an inch or two even at the highest elevations. Tonight and tomorrow, an upper level ridge will build in from the west, resulting in NW to N flow aloft.
604 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A cold front along the coast will continue moving offshore as high pressure builds in from the west.
What a difference a day makes as a cool, dry and quiet weather pattern has settled over the area in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Thursday night lows will fall into the low to mid 40s near the coast and mid to upper 30s inland.
538 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had closed low pressure centered over southwestern Wisconsin with a trough of low pressure extending south into the Ohio valley. East of the trough, high pressure was centered over the Bahamas with a ridge extending north into the Canadian Maritimes. West of the low and trough, a high amplitude ridge extended from Montana into northern Saskatchewan. A decent pressure gradient extended east of the high from North Dakota into Minnesota. This will hold highs back into the lower 30s. This will help to hold lows in the lower 20s.
This is ahead of a cold front that will move into Central Florida today.
Extensive stratus canopy extending back into the northern Great Plains is not going anywhere, especially with southwest surface winds veering to westerly over the lake as the low-level flow flattens out a bit today.
A progressive pattern aloft continues, and the next upstream trough will dive much farther south than the previous one to bring a chance for widespread rains Friday and beyond.
Areas of freezing drizzle remain a concern but should subside by around mid-morning. Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be freezing drizzle about northwestern, central, and eastern ND this morning. Currently, northwest flow aloft with a ridge of weak high pressure over the Northern Plains. Dry air aloft (decreasing seeder/feeder ice crystals into the boundary layer of super-cooled water) advecting south across the local area and coupled with low level omega/lift is contributing to areas of freezing drizzle across northwest and central parts of the state, noted at observing sites and area web cams. Low level omega decreases after mid-morning so will include freezing drizzle in the forecast through the AM hours and remove afterwards.
1054 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
644 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide the North Country with unsettled weather through the end of the week, and into the first half of the weekend.
605 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Expect VFR flight conditions throughout the TAF period as high pressure builds across the forecast area.
254 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
339 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure over the Midwest will move slowly east providing dry conditions across our area through Tuesday night.
242 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak frontal boundary will generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the ridges early this evening.
Weak upper troughing is also indicated. With the low level moisture from recent rain there is potential for fog or CIG restrictions late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
1248 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 Most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain/develop in advance of a mid-level trough that is located over eastern Oklahoma. A cold front will approach northern Oklahoma during the late morning which will result in an increase in storms. Later in the week a relatively weak upper low drifting east to west across Texas will bring lower, but persistent chances for rain to southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas while areas to the north should be rain-free in a drier and milder airmass.
329 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will be centered over the region through Tuesday, with dry conditions and warm temperatures.
233 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 A low pressure system moving east of the area today will provide for isolated afternoon thunderstorms near the Sierra Crest.
Cold front associated with today's upper level disturbance as push as far sound as Great Falls currently. cold front does not make it to SW MT until tonight. Areas that see the cold frontal passage will struggle to get to near normal highs. Elsewhere could see highs in the low to mid 60s. An area of low pressure over southern Saskatchewan will continue to move slowly ESE along the US/Canadian border over the next 24 hrs. At the same time, the low will drag a cold front across central and SW MT through tomorrow. In addition, a gusty NW developing at KHVR/KLWT will continue on into Tuesday morning as strong low to mid level winds mix down to the SFC on the backside of the low.