Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1005 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NOW JUST CLEARED OUR FAR SE PARISHES IN N CNTRL LA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BE DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. COMBINED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF COOLER AND WET WEATHER DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A broad upper level trough across the upper and mid MS river valley this afternoon will amplify as it shift east into the Great Lakes States and Mid Atlantic States by Thursday afternoon. Shorter wave-length upper level troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft, should remain north and east of the CWA.
748 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016 AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH LESS CIRRUS AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
933 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION. AT 3 PM CDT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. H5 ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE ON THURSDAY AS A SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER ROUGH AXIS ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE SABINE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EXITING LOWER ACADIANA LATER THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST RECORDING WINDS ARE AT AROUND 200MB AND NEAR 170 KNOTS. WHICH EXPLAINS THE LOW TERMINATION ELEVATION ANGLE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
845 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016 Cooler temperatures Thursday with Delta breeze.
630 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 Cold front has pushed just southeast of our forecast area this afternoon. There may be a few light showers clipping west central IL, as some of the high resolution models were depicting. Low level cold air advection and slowly falling surface dew points will lead to cooler low temperatures tonight than the previous night, although close to seasonal normals for early April.
AFTER RECORD SETTING WARMTH TODAY, AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR ALL BUT THE COAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS AND THE COOLER WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NORTH BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTH.
421 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016 Cooler temperatures Thursday with Delta breeze.
427 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016 Amplifying high pressure over the region will bring a rapid warming trend to the Inland Northwest.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ALABAMA SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST TOMORROW. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO LIMP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT MARKING ITS PASSAGE AS THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THIS FOG SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED AS THE LOWER DEWPOINTS START MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MIN TEMPS TO BE MILD IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. A WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THOUGH ANOTHER SHOT AT SCHC-CHC MVFR SHRA'S IN THE MORNING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DECREASING CHANCES SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM HERE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM THE ATLC SEABOARD ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO SE/S THROUGH LATE EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE BROUGHT RAPID WARMING TODAY RESULTING IN VERY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SINCE THE COLD MORNING.
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BE DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. COMBINED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
1214 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF BAJA NEAR 25N/124W. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO KERN COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
COLD FRONT COMING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WERE DROPPING INTO THE 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
/issued 236 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ An upper trough is currently moving over the Upper Midwest with upper ridging building over the western conus. High temperatures today are expected to be closer to normal values behind the cold front with highs mostly in the 70s. On Thursday, the previously mentioned upper trough will strengthen and expand over the eastern conus; meanwhile, an upper low will move toward the coast of southern California. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm back up into the 80s with some places along the Trans Pecos reaching the lower 90s.
617 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AND INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ THE COLD FRONT THAT RACED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT WAS FINALLY LOSING MOMENTUM ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHLY-TILTED UPPER RIDGING WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING TO EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A cold front passed through the area this morning. A temperature gradient will setup across the area on Thursday as highs in the lower 70s occur across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri to the low to middle 60s across central Missouri. An upper level trough and cold front will push through the area Thursday afternoon, a few light rain shower or sprinkles will be possible across central Missouri, but with a dry air mass in place rainfall amount will be light. The cold front will bring gusty northwesterly winds back to the area and a even drier air mass Thursday afternoon.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. LOWS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
908 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while an upper level ridge of high pressure shifts slowly east across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting eastward across the Northern and Central Rockies. Winds will generally be from a westerly direction tonight shifting to more of a northerly direction tomorrow as a weak cold front moves through the area. Highs tomorrow look to range from the lower 70s across west central and central Kansas to upper 70s along the KS/OK border.
IN HAMILTON AND BRADLEY COUNTIES SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT FARTHER EAST DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. COOLER AIR WILL BE FILLING INTO THE REGION BEHIND FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF COOLER AIR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 65 43 60 / 90 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 60 40 56 / 90 50 60 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 61 40 55 / 90 50 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 59 37 51 / 90 50 60 50.
1149 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 Cold front has pushed just southeast of our forecast area this afternoon. There may be a few light showers clipping west central IL, as some of the high resolution models were depicting. Low level cold air advection and slowly falling surface dew points will lead to cooler low temperatures tonight than the previous night, although close to seasonal normals for early April.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS JUST THROUGH ALEXANDRIA AND NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE CHARLES AREA. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE SABINE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EXITING LOWER ACADIANA LATER THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
AND WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE U.
1102 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016 AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.
WET BULB TEMPS STILL NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN TUG AND WESTERN CATSKILLS REGIONS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN FOR AN HOUR OR SO LATE. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE SURFACE CYCLONE PULLS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER ONTARIO.
SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LOWER KEYS TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MIDDLE KEYS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE MIDDLE KEYS. MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE A MASSIVE AREA OF FALSE ECHOES IN THE FORM OF CHAFF IS COVERING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OUR EVENING SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH WINDS TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS DISSIPATING WHILE A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SLIPS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
COLD FRONT COMING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WERE DROPPING INTO THE 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE PLATEAU. AT 04Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR COLUMBUS, MS TO NEAR COOKEVILLE, TN, AND DANVILLE, KY.
THE RISK OF HAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED DUE TO THE STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM. CEILINGS WILL FALL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO THIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
427 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WILL DRAW SOME THIS MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD, FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NV, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.
SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF THE LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FG WHERE THE RAIN FALLS JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD /SATURDAY MORNING/.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GOMEX. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN A BIT WHICH.
525 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WEAKENING.
329 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015 Cold front will continue to push into central and northeast Missouri through the morning with generally dry conditions moving in behind it for a few hours. More widespread rain and thunderstorms could develop later this evening and overnight when a low-level jet will nose into the region and interact with the slowly retreating warm front.
Additional storms are anticipated to develop along the cold front and those too are expected to be strong to severe. Lastly a portion of a MCS may work in from the southwest very late tonight along and north of the cold front. Cold front is pushing into the KC area early this morning while a band of thunderstorms has developed just behind it extending well into central and southwest KS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
IT WAS A MUGGY EARLY MORNING ACROSS MID TN WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CLIP A DEGREE OR 2 OFF OF THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY. WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE LOWER 90S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE RETROGRADES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
Meanwhile, a short wave upper level trough currently over the Southern Rockies will move east across the Southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any organized severe storms will remain northwest of the area trough this evening, but a few strong to severe severe storms will be possible through mid evening, with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Highs today will be lower 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
605 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS SATURDAY MORNING.
340 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
357 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES WITH UPCOMING COLD FRONT OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER CANADA A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER ND BECOMING ORIENTED FROM N CENTRAL TO SW ND BY SAT MORNING.
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LARGE AND WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS. WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE CAPABLE A SQUASHING ALL CONVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 70S AND 80S IN THE SIERRA. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXITING EASTWARD OUT OF NEVADA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHWEST.
251 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO HIGHER PRESSURE BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
244 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN PA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE BORDER AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS OF SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH IS NOW EXITING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTHEAST TODAY. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE KMPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS SURGE IN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS THE RESULT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS COMING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
311 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 BROAD TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THOUGH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
TODAY WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH.
A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CA IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST & PERHAPS EVEN "BACK BUILD" SAT NIGHT. SUCH BEHAVIOR WOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT. TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO DECELERATE THIS MORNING THEN STALL IN AN EAST/WEST MANNER VERY CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
Flat ridging over the Deep South will try to build in a bit more strongly, while a wave tries to scoot past to our north, roughly in line with a stalled surface front. For Saturday the ridging starts to retreat to the east, providing us with a bit more humidity and a weaker cap.
102 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MID LVL CIRCULATION OF CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PARK COUNTY REGION AS PER RADAR. HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TEMPS TODAY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE ONLY GOING TO BE IN THE 60S. I HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MTNS AS MANY STREAMS ARE AT BANKFULL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ADD TO THE HIGH FLOWS. WERE TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE LOW 70S. WEAK TROUGHIENESS WILL LINGER OVER NEW MEXICO.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
a dry cold front will help to cool temperatures back to near normal but bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. A dry cold front will bring more breezy conditions to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho today and tonight.
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
414 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SEEMINGLY ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
446 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
1244 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/ A TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS LEFT THE TN VALLEY IN BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S EASILY ATTAINABLE.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS, MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE.
THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 850MB FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EAST OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. WITH A S/W TROF APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY.
IN THE MEANTIME AN H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. BUT THE INTERACTION AND/OR BATTLE BETWEEN THE WEATHER SYSTEM/FRONT AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA AND LEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF WHERE THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO POKE IN. JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE RIDGE WILL HAVE IS WHERE MODELS DIFFER MOST.