Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afternoon temperatures running upwards of 10 degs warmer than 24 hours ago as upper ridge axis has shifted inland over the area. Farther north, ridging is getting squashed as Pacific frontal system is beginning to spread inland over W WA. High temperatures Sunday expected to be near to slightly warmer.
High pressure will build over the region for the next several days bringing warming and dry weather. Visible satellite imagery shows cloud free skies over the central interior as high pressure builds. Water vapor images indicate the driest air is over Southern California and along the coast with a large ridge extending will back west to around 140W.
Until then, we'll need to get through the next 48 hours or so as a cold front approaches Middle Tennessee on Sunday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area.
A weak frontal boundary moving by to the north of the area and squashing down the ridge will bring the chance for some drizzle or light rain late tonight into Sunday morning.
151 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday.
312 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Afternoon water vapor imagery loop showed a deep upper low pressure system over central NM, with strong diffluent flow extending northward across the central/southern high plains.
353 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A closed upper low will track east out of the eastern Plains of New Mexico this evening into the Texas South Plains and then northward into the northeast Texas Panhandle late tonight and then into Kansas by Sunday morning. The rain mixed with snow may change over to snow across portions of the eastern Panhandles between 06Z and 12Z Sunday as the upper low lifts northeast and the cold sector north and west of the departing closed upper low moves across this area. Expect a tight gradient between the highest snowfall amounts northwest to lesser snowfall amounts across the remainder of the forecast area. Snow will likely melt first with temps above freezing, but as temps fall below freezing this evening and overnight tonight, expect snow to begin accumulating across the remainder of the Panhandles.
Then temps over the northwest will hold steady or warm slightly in the low 40s. Temps over the southeast will also hold steady around 50 or in the low 50s.
Showers will be possible on Sunday, with the best chances in the high country, especially across the eastern highlands during the afternoon.
There will still be some clearing over the western part of the area later tonight and even with the other factors it will be more than a little below freezing. Mid level subsidence associated with weak ridging aloft.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large scale trough over the western half of the CONUS with its axis running up the front range from New Mexico to Montana. To the west a ridge has set up over thew California coast running north into Oregon and then curving back east into southern Idaho. This afternoon into tonight: A lee side mountain trough has laid down across far western zones and this is becoming the focal point for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, as the axis of this ridge pass through eastern Montana this afternoon chances for rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will again increase.
1204 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Imagery shows longwave trof across the CONUS with closed low in base of trof centered over the 4 corners. Strong 120 to 160 kt jet associated with the LW trof stretches from the west coast down through the Desert SW. SFC has a cold front well south of the region across the srn Rockies/srn Plains with high P building into/across the nrn tier of states including WY. Weal inverted trofs extending from swrn CO into scntrl/cntrl WY and another through UT and into sern ID. Upper closed low continues to slip s/se along with the cold front, moisture return and associated precipitation. These general conditions will last well into Sunday before an upstream sw trof rides through the nw flow aloft and into wrn WY with late afternoon/evening showers breaking out west of the Divide.
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Plenty of deep moist convection was occurring across central MO this afternoon in the form of an MCS, while the PAH forecast area was in the warm sector south of a retreating warm front, with low level moisture advection continuing. In the highly amplified pattern aloft, mid level heights over us temporarily rose this afternoon in advance of a large area of low pressure digging through NM. Noticeably cooler temps will prevail behind this system, but not drastically so.
131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight. Sunday the low will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast trough. Strong cold front blew through the area overnight. Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area will fall to freezing tonight. and Marfa Plateau to a Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing and this will be the last freeze of the season.
For 18z Aviation discussion below High pressure will dominate the weather today with another day similar to yesterday with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer, still about 15 degrees below normal. High pressure slides north of Lake Superior tonight as low pressure in Texas moves toward northeast Oklahoma.
410 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Afternoon water vapor imagery loop showed a deep upper low pressure system over central NM, with strong diffluent flow extending northward across the central/southern high plains.
A cold front is forecast to move through the region resulting in thunderstorms be likely late tonight and through the day on Sunday. Drier conditions will be ushered in behind the cold front on Sunday.
156 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will dominate through Sunday and help keep any thunderstorms mainly associated with heating isolated.
1149 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Upper low seen clearly on water vapor imagery this morning over SW CO will move slowly ESE'ward today and tonight before finally ejecting NE'ward through the southern and central plains on Sunday. A powerful surface cyclone will develop over KS on Sunday in response to the ejecting trough. Areas of light snow or drizzle/freezing drizzle persist along and just east of the Laramie Range early this morning as weak mid level energy interacts with the shallow moist upslope NE'ly flow. As the upper low continues to push ESE this morning, expect any lingering precip to come to an end.
High pressure will remain in control today keeping conditions dry with pleasant temperatures, albeit a bit on the cool side and below normal. Winds look to be around 10 mph or less over areas where RH will be the lowest. Bumped up highs today a couple degrees based on slightly warmer temps aloft and comparing conditions to yesterday's temps.
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure centered over eastern Nebraska and a dry northwest flow aloft were producing clear skies, light winds and seasonably cool conditions across the local forecast area. At 3 am, temperatures were in the lower to mid 50s across the forecast area. High pressure migrating east over the region will provide another seasonably cool and dry day over the forecast area. Tonight, there may be a few high clouds, otherwise conditions will be similar to those found early this morning with lows again in the lower to mid 50s.
The true cold front is along the I-44 corridor marked by noticeably drier air and this will continue southward today.
424 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Upper level ridge axis and light westerly flow aloft will remain over the forecast area today. The exception will be farther east on the plains where low level moisture should hold in place east of the lee trough. High temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer on most of the plains and cooler easterly flow is replaced by warmer south/southwest flow.
An upper level trough moving north through northern Utah will exit the state this morning. A gradual warming and drying trend will take hold across the region as high pressure aloft returns to the Great Basin later in the week.
403 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front is currently tracking eastward across Kentucky. The cold front should make it through the CWA and exit just to our SE by dawn or just thereafter. In the wake of the cold front, a large area of high pressure will begin moving in from our northwest, encompassing much of the north-central Conus. Meanwhile, aloft, a large upper level low over eastern Quebec will result in longwave troughing across much of the eastern Conus, including the Ohio Valley. This will produce deep NW flow across the region, pulling in a cooler Canadian airmass.
Freezing level remains near 16,000 feet, the -20C at 26,700 feet and the wet bulb zero level just below 13,000 feet.
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 The cold front continues to push south early this morning. The cold front was making slow progress southeast, and was located near KFYV to near KBPK, with cooler and drier air and a northwest wind behind the front. Otherwise, lows tonight will be cooler north, with the 60s, while 70s central and south.
As for surface temperatures, the low to mid level temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday so planning on keeping highs about where the latest forecast had them, which were from the upper 70s in southwest MN to the mid 80s in central SD.
403 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will provide mainly dry but cool weather through the weekend. Surface cold front is moving through northeast Pennsylvania at 3 AM with scattered light showers along the boundary. Highs will range in the lower to middle 70s with valley areas in northeast pennsylvania reaching the upper 70s.
A weak trough of low pressure currently located over the Minnesota Arrowhead has supported some scattered to broken cloud cover over northeast Minnesota, with some very weak radar echoes observed just north of Taconite Harbor. Highs today will range from the lower 60s over the Minnesota Arrowhead to the middle to upper 60s further inland.
324 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure and drier air follows the front late Wednesday through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate through the midweek period as low pressure develops over the mid Atlantic region. Cold front has slowed along the coast and will bring additional QPF there and just inland for the next few hours before the next short wave kicker moves it offshore. Sprawling closed upper low will keep spinning over eastern Canada today pushing lobes of vorticity through the northeastern states. A rogue sprinkle may occur over the highest peaks through this morning. Drier and cooler air will filter in tonight as high pressure pushes in from the west.
Mid and upper level ridging will remain in place aloft of the local area today, with the Bermuda high situated off to our east at the lower levels. To our north, a cold front will sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, which could produce some outflow storms that move into our northern zones, enhancing chances for showers and thunderstorms in southeast AL and southwest GA. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
222 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. SW to NE oriented cold front currently stretching from SW PA to near the OH River and southwest into KY. The cold front continues to slowly move our way. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night for drier weather. Looking to overall be a dry period, with warm sunny days, and foggy mornings under high pressure.
645 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will provide mainly dry but cool weather through the weekend. Surface cold front is moving through northeast Pennsylvania at 3 AM with scattered light showers along the boundary. Highs will range in the lower to middle 70s with valley areas in northeast pennsylvania reaching the upper 70s.
214 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front will bring a few lingering showers overnight and a westerly wind shift. Quieter, cooler and drier weather conditions return for Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Trailing cold front east of Lake Ontario will potentially bring isold/sct -SHRA overnight, with a few rumbles of thunder possible through 06-07Z. Isold additional showers are possible Wednesday as trailing upper level trough makes its way ewd across the North Country. Will be noticeably drier with dewpoints falling into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Likewise, temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, much closer to seasonal normals (mid- upr 70s).
The cold front which moved into the region Tuesday is now over extreme north Mississippi at this time. Temperatures will not be as warm as they have been over the past few days with highs in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will build into the area tonight and remain over the region for the next few days.
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. The cold front has pushed southeast of our area this morning but in the developing low level CAA behind the front, some areas of stratocu have developed. Some of the models are trying to produce a few spotty showers across our far north later this afternoon, but with the moisture mainly relegated to the low levels, think any coverage will be limited. With a cooler airmass working in behind the front, highs today will only be in the mid to upper 70s. With clear skies and decreasing winds, expect lows in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s not out of the question across our northwest.
1122 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Upper level ridge will keep the weather mild and mostly dry through Wednesday night.
411 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Notable air mass change today behind departing cold front from early this morning. Cooler and drier weather will persist through the week. Clearing trend continues today with winds shifting to westerly behind departing cold front. Isolated showers are possible today with upper level trough making its way across the North Country. This will be a cooler drier air mass with dewpoints dropping to more comfortable temps, low to mid 50s. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, only reaching the lower to mid 70s. Will continue with chance for showers as upper level trough slowly pushes eastward across Northern New York and Vermont.
648 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cold front crosses the mountains this morning. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. Cold front continues progressing through the forecast area this morning with only light returns noted on radar. Upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will bring much cooler and drier air southward from a large high pressure system centered over central Canada.
411 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 An upper high over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies will continue to provide the Panhandles with a northwest upper flow pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend.
323 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Quiet, cooler, and drier weather continues today. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a deepening upper-level trough in the eastern US and ridging in the west, with northwesterly flow across the central US. Frontal passage had brought much drier and slightly cooler mid-level air to the central US, with 12C+ dewpoints at 850mb confined to the southern Plains to TN River valley area and southward. A pocket of cooler 850mb temperatures was noted in ON, but in the central Plains, temps were still 10-20C from east to west.
139 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front will sweep through the area tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms affecting portions of the region through this evening.
652 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure and drier air follows the front late Wednesday through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate through the midweek period as low pressure develops over the mid Atlantic region. Cold front has slowed along the coast and will bring additional QPF there and just inland for the next few hours before the next short wave kicker moves it offshore. Sprawling closed upper low will keep spinning over eastern Canada today pushing lobes of vorticity through the northeastern states. A rogue sprinkle may occur over the highest peaks through this morning. Drier and cooler air will filter in tonight as high pressure pushes in from the west.
157 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Much cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week into the weekend. There are a few speckles along the real cold front, but mainly north of the NY border. The main windshift line associated with the cold front is just now entering NW PA. The RAP analysis shows the frontal trough jumping out to the east over central PA. It will also be significantly cooler.
With more return flow today and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90, cooler air aloft will increase instability through the late afternoon. Highs today in the 80s with warmer temperatures to the west.
646 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cold front crosses the mountains this morning. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. Cold front continues progressing through the forecast area this morning with only light returns noted on radar. Upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will bring much cooler and drier air southward from a large high pressure system centered over central Canada.
Not confident on coverage today enough to go likely pops so have general chance area-wide, though the greater chance for any stronger convection triggering later this afternoon would be more confined to central GA given the higher PWATs (hydrometeor loading supporting enhanced downdrafts/locally high precip efficiency) and decently low mid-level temps aiding updrafts.
Lake Michigan water temperature near its peak warmth, in the lower 70s, while very cool air now sits over the western Great Lakes. Expect high temperatures today to be near or slightly below yesterday's values due to more clouds during peak heating and slightly cooler air aloft. HOWEVER, back door cold front located just north of Lake Superior will accompany the wave and slide south across Lake Michigan and southern WI later tonight.
337 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 After a pre-frontal trough kicked up showers and a few thunderstorms overnight, the KHTX radar is quiet right now. The lingering pre-frontal trough boundary has kept the majority of the low clouds at bay, but as it shifts southward, those who saw rainfall overnight will have the greatest potential for low clouds/fog. The cold front itself is still to our north and will move into the TN Valley this morning. Reinforcing our cooler and drier air, we will have mostly clear skies that will let temps drop into the lower 60s.
Looking for temperatures to recover back into the lower 90s by this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms as the seabreeze pushes inland. A cold front over southern Arkansas this morning will move southward during the day making the coast around sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow will be pretty much like today but a bit cooler but showers and thunderstorms will be a bit more prevalent during the afternoon hours. At this time Harvey does not have a closed circulation but the Hurricane Center has Harvey redeveloping back into a cyclone.
In fact, valley dew point values across the forecast area were in the mid- 40s with the exception of KGJT which recorded dew points in the low 50s early this morning.
Cold front continues to push through the area today, bringing scattered showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm this morning. Highs today will be about 10 degrees cooler than the last few days; settling comfortably in the lower 80s.
Upstream, water vapor depicts a potent closed mid/upper level low circulating along the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border.
Current temperatures are milder across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago and range from the upper 40s in the mountain valleys to the mid 70s across the warmer portions of the Sacramento Valley.
Water vapor is showing the upper ridge out West and the long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest with NW flow aloft.
Wind speeds will be strongest today in the far west near the Colorado border as a leeside trough starts to develop in eastern Colorado. There should be some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the lee trough axis well to our west in Colorado, and given how weak the upper level flow pattern is, none of this convective activity should reach the KS border through tonight.
643 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. The cold front has pushed southeast of our area this morning but in the developing low level CAA behind the front, some areas of stratocu have developed. Some of the models are trying to produce a few spotty showers across our far north later this afternoon, but with the moisture mainly relegated to the low levels, think any coverage will be limited. With a cooler airmass working in behind the front, highs today will only be in the mid to upper 70s. With clear skies and decreasing winds, expect lows in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s not out of the question across our northwest.
631 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the next several days across the region. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 70s and lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
An upper ridge is over the region with mostly northwest flow aloft. Expect thunderstorm development again this afternoon mainly across the higher terrain and the eastern half of the CWA. Temperatures today are expected to be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday behind the cold front.
1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A closed upper low over northeast Ontario is forecast to move eastward into Quebec during the next 36 hours. Overnight lows will dip into the low 40s north to the upper 40s south. A few of the climatologically cooler locales could see temperatures in the middle 30s. Height falls ahead of that trough, and diurnal heating, should be more than sufficient for showers to redevelop during the late morning and early afternoon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler, however, with highs in the low 60s northeast and over Iron County, WI and near 70 in central Minnesota.
454 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Another round of thunderstorms expected today with residual moisture and weak embedded disturbances still circulating within the upper ridge over CO. Thunderstorms will linger into the night across the plains as the surface trof axis shifts eastward and low level jet cranks up.
148 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 A cold front will move across the area tonight. Cold front stretching just north of I-70 late this evening will continue to progress southeast through the night. Lows on Wednesday night will dip into the lower to mid 50s area-wide.
615 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Low pressure tracking north of the region today will bring a cold front across the area.
250 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the next several days across the region.
453 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a weakening deep layer mean anticyclone over the western North Atlantic, with a broad trough/cyclonic vorticity zone now covering most of South Florida, the Straits of Florida, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas.
510 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 This morning, Upper Michigan was situated between high pressure over the Northern Plains and low pressure southeast of the Hudson Bay. As the above mentioned area of high pressure begins to work it's way into Upper Michigan later today, breezy winds will subside through the afternoon and evening hours from west to east.
340 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Low pressure tracking north of the region today will bring a cold front across the area.