Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
12Z RAOBS AROUND THE FL MAINLAND SHOWED A VERY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
932 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIDE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
750 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS A BIT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE BRIEF TURNING OF WIND DIRECTIONS ALONG THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID DECK CLOUDS THINNING QUICKLY IN IT/S WAKE.
EXPECT NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN-BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH CRASHING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND THE RIDGES OF WESTERN WI. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
/12Z TAFS/ VFR CIGS WITH BROKEN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE AVIATION DAY TODAY AT OUR I-35 TAF SITES. A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
2C) RESPECTIVELY WHICH IS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT THIS TIME. THE RECENT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF ALSO MOVES EAST TO OVER THE NORTH PENINSULA. 70 INCHES OVER THE TREASURE COAST TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NORTH OF I-4 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLING CLOSER TOWARDS THE FRONT/LOW PRESSURE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL/FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO WSW/W LATE IN THE NIGHT/DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
AND TUESDAY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN EARLY TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LESS STRONG. TUESDAY HIGHS MIGHT BE A DEGREES OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY AS COOLER AIR TO OUR SOUTH ACTUALLY RETURNS NORTHWARD.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BACKED WIDESPREAD STRATOCU INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
/ISSUED 353 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ Some of the colder valleys have again dipped to near or just below freezing early this morning, but an increase in mid level cloudiness has helped hinder more widespread frost or freezing conditions.
631 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS MO INTO IL WITH SOME FORCING ALONG ITS TRACK.
AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER.
Radar and satellite imagery show a large area of showers and thunderstorms beneath the cold upper trough now approaching the coast.
635 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015 HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT ARE THINNING AS THEY CLIMB OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE IS FURTHER EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS PRODUCE AN UPSLOPE WIND FIELD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
Overnight lows will be above normal, generally in the low to mid 50s.
COMBINATION OF CAD WEDGE/EASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DAMP AND CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH UTAH.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHILE A A MUCH STRONGER AND SHARPER TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY LATE TUESDAY.
WEST COAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH UPPER TROF STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST TODAY. LEE TROF WILL KEEP WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH SOME AREAS STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES TO THE WEST OF I-25.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM MISSOURI ACROSS IN/OH BY TUESDAY AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF MID MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY TOWARDS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. KATE WILL BE REDIRECTED TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AS ITS BEING ABSORBED BY THE LOW SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD HELP THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP FEW EXTRA DEGREES AS THE ISLANDS WILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE LOW TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW 79 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN KEY WEST.
405 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015 COMBINATION OF CAD WEDGE/EASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DAMP AND CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
602 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015 UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS IMPINGING OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN CHANGES ENSUE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH SOME SHOWER POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN ACTION FOR THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS THE SFC/UPPER LOWS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
2C) RESPECTIVELY WHICH IS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AT THIS TIME. THE RECENT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF ALSO MOVES EAST TO OVER THE NORTH PENINSULA. 70 INCHES OVER THE TREASURE COAST TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NORTH OF I-4 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLING CLOSER TOWARDS THE FRONT/LOW PRESSURE. WILL STILL CONTINUE TO OUTLINE HIGHER POP CHANCES NORTHWARD (30 TO 40 PERCENT) ALONG/NOWINDS WILL BACK TO NLY DURING TUE AS DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCES COUNTERING FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL/FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO WSW/W LATE IN THE NIGHT/DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) The center of the high pressure that controlled our weather this past weekend as worked its way into the mid-Atlantic states, although western extension of ridge lingers over the mid-Mississippi Valley early today. This remnant ridging will continue to slowly weaken during the day, but with the return flow quite weak AMS over the region will remain very dry which should translate to another sunny November day.
553 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015 Temperatures early this morning fell into the middle 30s in most locations as high pressure was observed over much of the nation's midsection. These southerly breezes will keep temperatures warmer tonight, with lows only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 30S. TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR WEST. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WOBBLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. BUT STILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION IN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS AND HOW FAR INTO THE CWA THE PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS.
927 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MORE IMPORTANT WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASING AND BACKING FLOW WITH AND BEHIND THIS WAVE AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WARMING IN THE STRONG FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME SLEET IN NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. WHICH SHOULD NOT BE FREEZING RAIN BECAUSE OF THE DEEP COLD LAYER BENEATH THE WARM WEDGE AT/ABOVE H7. EVEN THIS WARM WEDGE LOOKS TO GO BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AS DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH WARMING TODAY OR COOLING TONIGHT WITH HIGHS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
609 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS GETTING VERY LITTLE GROUND TRUTH AND DOUBTFUL MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY EVAPORATING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ALOFT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES MORE CENTRALIZED OVER EASTERN WYOMING WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS.
CONTINUED COLD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PIVOT AROUND WYOMING WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR COUNTIES. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH DRYING WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS OVER OUR COUNTIES. MORE MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARMER FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE AT THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY WARMED THIS MORNING TO NEAR 70 TO THE LOW 70S. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
/ISSUED 422 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE RETAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. A DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER UTAH WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS TOMORROW EVENING. TOP DOWN METHOD USING MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR FREEZING FOG TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THIS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START BY LATE MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
427 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT ANALYZED THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM EAST OF MONROE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE BISECTING THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY ALEXANDRIA TO JUST WEST OF LAKE CHARLES. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING FROM 10-15 DEGREES COOLER BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THICKEN WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
ALSO IN A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY, THIS AREA WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT, AND WILL THEREFORE REMAIN A BIT COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL BE THE KICKER TO FINALLY SHUNT THE BLOCKING RIDGE AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING, BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR, ONLY A LIGHT GLAZING IS LIKELY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL RAIN.
1017 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
742 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Most of the short term will be dominated by the influences of a closed upper level low that will work its way slowly across the northern Rockies and Plains states. Short wave energy ejecting northeast from the low will bring additional areas of mainly light rains today and Monday, especially to western KY and far sern MO.
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPS.
Strong valley inversions and the accompanying low stratus clouds and fog will remain the leading weather story through about mid week as high pressure continues its dominant hold over the Northern Rockies.
730 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 SYNOPSIS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARD MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED NORTH OF THE WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLAND INTERIOR. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GA AND RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING. WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GA AND RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING. THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN VA AREA. BUT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
335 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015 THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT PROVIDED SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT INTO WYOMING TODAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT PROVIDED SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT INTO WYOMING TODAY.
330 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015 AN UPPER LOW STRETCHED FROM UTAH/NEVADA NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING HAS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. AND PALMER AND CHEYENNE RIDGES. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AN EXTRA PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL ROUND THE LOW AND PUSH INTO COLORADO THIS EVENING TURNING QG MOTION UPWARD AGAIN.
/ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/ NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT ANALYZED THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM EAST OF MONROE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE BISECTING THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY ALEXANDRIA TO JUST WEST OF LAKE CHARLES. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING FROM 10-15 DEGREES COOLER BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THICKEN WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
COOL AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY.
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA/SC AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN NE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
557 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
531 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Fog and low cloud ceilings have developed overnight and this morning with the lowest visibilities on top of the Ozark Plateau. Visibilities at the higher elevations are near a quarter of a mile to half a mile at times. The large upper level low pressure system currently over the western U.
612 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. TAPERING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS GETTING VERY LITTLE GROUND TRUTH AND DOUBTFUL MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY EVAPORATING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ALOFT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES MORE CENTRALIZED OVER EASTERN WYOMING WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 6 AM TO COVER THE CURRENT PRECIP WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING BACK TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EVENTUALLY.
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis wasn't much different than 24 hours ago, except that the pressure gradient and cold front to our west are weaker. A weakening, quasi-stationary cold front extended across central TN to the TX coastal waters. The 06z NWP guidance was in fair agreement with regards to fog development for Monday morning, indicating the highest probability of fog from KECP and KDHN westward by dawn. However, KDHN was on the edge of the higher fog probabilities, so we will wait for the 12z model suite to see if we should forecast fog in the KDHN TAF on the upcoming 18z TAF package.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND A BIT OF A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY IN REACTION TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US.
422 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 IMMEDIATE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE RETAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. A DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER UTAH WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS TOMORROW EVENING. TOP DOWN METHOD USING MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR FREEZING FOG TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THIS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES START BY LATE MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WITH A RIDGE PRESSING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH OUR ENTIRE REGION LYING ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUNSHINE STATE.
AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
SOUTH OF THIS LOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR AND DEEPEN AS THE REX BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES TO WYOMING BY EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH READING RESIDING VERY NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. A COLD RAIN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MODE THIS MORNING. WE COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG AND/OR FREEZING FOG. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT /LIKELY JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST SPOTS/ AND WE COULD SEE THE RISK OF FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOP. LEAVING AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED TROUGH TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
409 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2015 Freezing morning today and Monday.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS THE REMAINS OF FORMER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA ACROSS TEXAS TODAY.
813 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN CHARGE THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT WIND.
639 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
Deep layer ridging will continue to prevail over the Tri-State region, though the pattern over the Southeast will become a bit more messy through the day. The upper ridge will flatten today, while a weak area of low pressure moves along a front stretching through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.