Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
434 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 VISIBLE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY COASTAL AND RIDGE TOP WINDS.
940 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
1008 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 300 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
1012 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
814 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST. SHORT TERM MODELS LOOK IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM OVERRUNNING FREEZING RAIN EVENT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FURTHER DOWN STREAM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. BUT MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WEST TONIGHT.
627 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
STILL THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CONTINUES TO WEB BULB AS MORE PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE DRY LAYER. WILL KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS UPDATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST. SHORT TERM MODELS LOOK IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM OVERRUNNING FREEZING RAIN EVENT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FURTHER DOWN STREAM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. BUT MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WEST TONIGHT.
958 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THINK BETTER SATURATION AND CONGEALING FORCING FACTORS COME INTO PLAY LATER THIS EVENING INTO TUE MRNG AS WAA COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSING 500 MILLIBAR WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGING EVENTUALLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTH THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID DAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
Afternoon highs will average 10 to 15 degrees above normal,in the upper 60s to the lower 70s, and morning lows will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal, in the upper 30s to around 40.
322 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
1226 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
PUT OUT AN SPS MENTIONING FREEZING PRECIP BUT WILL MONITOR IN CASE AN UPGRADE TO ADVISORY IS NEEDED. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT STILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
BECOMING E-NELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHTS TROUGH WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE PREFERRED GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN THE 1-4 INCH CAMP WITH THE HIGHER AMTS OVER THE NRN MTNS.
407 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY.
935 AM MST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HELP THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER. THE HIGH CLOUDS COULD CLEAR BRIEFLY TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND IT BUT THEN RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN. 850MB TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND THE HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE THICKER THAN MONDAY LENDING TO COOLER TEMPS. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A DEG OR TWO COOLER.
1148 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURG THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
As high pressure shifts eastward tonight, we will begin to see some lower level isentropic ascent to our southwest, increasing cloud coverage along the Florida Panhandle and out over the Gulf waters. Cloud coverage building in our southwestern zones will mean lows in that area won't cool quite as much, staying in the low 40s.
1241 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. SHOULD SEE THIS BAND SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SE TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE BUBBLE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
204 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A SLOWER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE ONLY REAL PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHOULD BE TODAY WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
The Tuesday clouds will come from a low pressure system passing by to our north.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 2 SUBTLE WAVES ACTUALLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR GIVING WAY TO A RATHER BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT AND DEPTH OF MARGINAL WARM LAYER COULD SPELL A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT STILL ALLOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
VARYING WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND COOLS TEMPS ON TUESDAY TO NEARER SEASONAL NORMALS.
/ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/ NORTH TEXAS /ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY/ CURRENTLY RESIDES BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. EFFECTIVELY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
The High Wind Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front will continue through Noon.
234 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT A SECONDARY COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION AND THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO PANHANDLE REGION. THIS WEAK UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL RH VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EXTENDING EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL SW WINDS AND WARMER H925 TEMPERATURES FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT MAX HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. BUT HINTS OF NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL TX HAVE THIS FORECAST FAVORING SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HWY 71 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.
The GFS does hit the low level moisture rather hard, but doesn't have much support from other models. On Tuesday weak low pressure will move by to our north and east from Illinois to Virginia.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHT: MESOSCALE MODE LIKE THE WRF-ARW AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS LIKE THE GFS STILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME MODELS WITH THE MOST PRECIP SHOW WARMER LOWS, WHILE THE DRIER MODELS SUPPORT LOWER VALUES.
1135 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS SERN COLO/SWRN KS BY 01Z THIS EVENING.
MIGHT EVEN SEE A FEW LOCALES GET A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 37 60 39 / 0 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 36 57 37 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 36 57 39 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 31 52 36 / 0 0 0 30.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT TO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS TXK/ELD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
322 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL ESENTIALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND BEYOND. H5 NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MODIFIED POLAR FRONT CONTINUE THEIR PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES HERALDING A SHIFT BACK TO A MID- WINTER TEMPERATURE REGIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FAR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY COLD CP AIRMASS.
217 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE SWITCHED THE PRECIPITATION WORDING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S F LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF WET BULB COOLING BELOW FREEZING IN PRECIPITATION SHAFTS DESPITE AN OTHERWISE WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. PROGGS INDICATE THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS AS IT LOWERS 500MB HEIGHTS AND TRANSITIONS US TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW. LOOK FOR THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PUSH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT. BUT PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA.
WITH WARM FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A KTOP TO KHUT LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MB) IS CENTERED IN NORTH FLORIDA. WITH SEVERAL RIDGE PRONGS POKING OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS INCLUDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SE U.
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING LITTLE IMPACT ON WX. WILL COMBINE WITH THE BASE OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX.
IT WON'T BE AS WARM ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT (WHICH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS KS TODAY) WILL HAVE VENTURED ACROSS THE RED RIVER TUESDAY MORNING.
APPEARS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO MIX SUFFICENTLY TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS. STRONG SFC RIDGING THROUGH HUDSON BAY/FAR NRN GRLTKS LESSENING INTO SRN PERIPHERAL COL FOR MUCH OF TODAY ACRS CWA.
Weak trof along 140W is forecast to move through the flat ridge on Tue to be followed by amplifying the ridge along the W Coast Wed/Thu. This ridging will pale in relation to the strength of the ridge forecast over the weekend and the potential Omega-Rex block pattern over the Ern Pac.
236 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST AND WNW 500 MB FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE U. MORE UPPER TROUGHING THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS ON TUE AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN AS TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -10C IN THE LOW LEVELS AND VERY LITTLE STRONG LIFT TO TRY TO CREATE SNOW AND THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN UPSLOPE EAST FLOW PLACES. AS A 500 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
LOW TO MID 70S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EQUAL TO 2-4 DEGREES WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW. FORECAST HIGHS WERE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STRATUS SHIELD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SHOWERY PRECIP MOVES OUT OF NORTH- CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DVN CWA. SFC TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 30S. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS.
1257 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 718 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. /ISSUED 350 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT-TUESDAY.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE SWITCH FROM ONE HIGH PRESSURE TO ANOTHER. DURING THE TRANSITION LATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PAST THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. FINALLY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS TO HAVE SOME BELOW NORMAL HIGHS NEXT MONDAY.
VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS WERE KEPT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MODELS ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LEVELS AND BRING ACROSS A WEAK UPPER LOW. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
415 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY.
At the same time, a weak cold front will move into the northern Big Country, eventually lifting back north this evening.
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CLUSTERED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AND THE LOWER KEYS. A WEAKENING TROUGH/COOL FRONT WILL LINGER CLOSE TO THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH TODAY.
352 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 AN INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SET UP ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT MOBRIDGE TO GETTYSBURG TO MILLER EARLY THIS MORNING.
441 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS.
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
517 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST.
344 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THEY WILL MOVE OVER AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 32F SO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN ND AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL LINGER LONGEST AND WHERE LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE SHOWN. AND/OR FREEZING RAIN HAZARDS THIS MORNING. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL LA TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL LA WHILE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S.
430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK. HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE AREA. TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
221 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
619 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
428 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER TODAY.
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. EASTERN ZONES WITH A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAIL OFF A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OKLAHOMA SKIRTS THIS AREA.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK. WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THE BAND OF RAIN MAY LIFT NORTHEAST FAST ENOUGH MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT ANY LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN THE FREEZING PROCESS TO HELP WARM THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE RAIN TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WET BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING WITH ANY AIR ABOVE FREEZING BEING CONTAINED RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO THE NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM FEED OF DRY AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ALL BUT THIN HIGH CIRRUS AT BAY TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. WITH ENOUGH SUN TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND CO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SPLIT. ONE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ND WHILE THE OTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREAFTER THE UPSTREAM UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND WILL SEND COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA.
/ISSUED 849 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/ SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR ST LOUIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ALONG I-44 AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FOR THIS AFTN OUTSIDE OF A CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE DRY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
03 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS RELATIVELY WEAK, THUS THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE QUICKEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S, WHILE STAYING AROUND 70 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
233 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
141 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT.
1025 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015 A Low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to portions of southeast Washington and the central panhandle of Idaho tonight and Tuesday morning.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT TROUGH IS ALSO DEVELOPING QUITE WELL TO THE WEST AND WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
253 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW AS FAR EAST AS FAR WESTERN KY. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN REGION-WIDE BY TONIGHT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH WEEK'S END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STABLE AIR MASS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT DOES NOT HAVE THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS SEEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT DOES HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR SITUATED ALOFT.