Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY NORTH) INCREASE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS LATER TONIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ALSO TAKES PLACE. CONTINUED CAA FRIDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
947 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. /ISSUED 446 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ATTM AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. SOME MOISTURE IN THE 4-10KFT LAYER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WHILE SOME BRIEF CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
1018 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT AC PATCHES 18/11Z-18/15Z CAN NOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT PER PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTRUBANCE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MID STATE.
Light snow is being reported at several sites north and west of the area, and as temperatures drop across northeast Oklahoma, a mix of light rain/light snow will be possible across portions of Osage, Pawnee, and Washington Counties as a weak trough passes over the region.
648 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND CLOUDS. AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
547 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Strong 514 dm 500 mb low spinning north of MN over southwest Ontario province, is embedded in large upper level trof extending southward across the Great Plains into Texas. This trof axis to shift east into IL Friday morning and continue a fair amount of cloud cover through tonight. At the surface, 1032 mb Canadian high pressure over the central Rockies and high Plains will shift se into the southern Plains Friday morning, keeping central IL in a seasonably cool WSW flow. Stayed fairly close to similar MET/MAV lows in the lower to mid 20s with coolest readings over the IL river valley.
624 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER TEMPS HAS STALLED TEMPORARILY EXCEPT OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NUMEROUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WINTERY MIX OF PCPN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE WARMER TEMPS WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES TONIGHT THAT WILL CHANGE THE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO MAINLY RAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES AND ACROSS THE BLUE/WALLOWA AREAS.
930 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND CLOUDS. AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
446 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SWINGING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ATTM AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. SOME MOISTURE IN THE 4-10KFT LAYER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WHILE SOME BRIEF CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
940 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF SETTING COLD ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS. OBS SHOW A STARK GRADIENT BETWEEN FREEZING AND 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE. AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS E/NE INTO THE OZARKS. AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE E/SE. WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS TEXOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. BROAD RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 46 29 50 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 42 27 47 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 43 27 47 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 39 23 41 / 10 10 10 10.
842 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF NIGHTTIME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
The short term period will be dry and relatively cold as a strong 500 mb trough crosses our region. For more information on the low cloud deck, refer to the aviation section below. Despite plenty of sun, temps will struggle to reach 40 degrees as the 850 mb thermal trough crosses our region.
930 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
532 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE THE AREA WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS NOW PASSED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS IN ITS WAKE. IN THE LOWER 50S AT 2PM. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BY 18Z FRIDAY. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MAYBE NEAR 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
BUT NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CANADA TO SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW LINES OF DEEP CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A MORE UNSTABLY STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FRIDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BY DAYBREAK AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PLATEAU. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO CROSS OFF ANY OF OUR REMAINING COUNTIES YET TO FREEZE FROM THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM.
THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WAS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND CLEAR WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THIS EVENING. CDFNT IS WELL EAST OF THE TN VALLEY HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER TROF.
/ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER E TX/AR/LA. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND HIGH WILL MOVE THRU LATER THIS EVENING. DML NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO TEXAS.
953 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT LEAVING MAINLY JUST THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS CREATED MOSTLY VIRGA BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING MARINE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH WINDSPEEDS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HAYWARD TO MANKATO.
519 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
Will reissue the High Wind Warning tonight for the Guadalupe Mountains based on current observations and incoming guidance indicating 30 to 40 knot westerly 700 millibar winds continuing overnight.
MVFR conditions will be predominate through much of Tonight and even into Monday morning in some locations in advance of a cold front that will move through late Tonight into Monday morning.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ND WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT THERE IS MUCH LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED LAYERS.
914 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MS DELTA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE.
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POUR OVER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVERT THE EASTERN US. LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS GLAKES AND THEN UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/ A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN OVERNIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SW IDAHO BROUGHT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS AREA. BUT LOCAL CALM WINDS AT ONTARIO COULD ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG BEFORE THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INCREASES OVER OREGON TOWARDS 12Z AND IDAHO MONDAY MORNING. ANY DENSE FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD LIFT BY 12-14Z DUE TO ONSET OF PRECIP AND INCREASING WINDS WITH WARM FRONT.
wetter and warmer system will move quickly over the area Monday.
958 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 UPDATED MIN TEMP TO BE JUST A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT HIGHER TEMPS DUE TO WINDS STAYING HIGHER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WELL IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WV. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AND SHIFT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RELAX SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
622 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT.
Satellite showing a few breaks in the high overcast but those will be short-lived as moisture continues to stream into the area. Tomorrow the cold front edges closer to the area and may produce some enhanced lift over southeast Missouri and areas near the Mississippi River during the afternoon to initiate a couple of thunderstorms.
EXTENDING NEWD FM THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN KS/ERN NEB. ANY PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT SE OF THE FA BY 12Z MON WITH CAA THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS. BUT THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC. NOT ONLY DO THEY DIFFER IN EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH. NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT GIVEN THE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS WELL. THESE COULD PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
THESE WILL ALL RIDE OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AT THIS TIME. MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN DOES NOT COME ANYWHERE NEAR THAT IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EWD AND IS CENTERED OVER THE SERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED SLY SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
658 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TAKE A TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.
WINDS PICK BACK UP MON MORNING FROM THE ESE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 12-15KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN. WITH COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE SETTLED IN OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD AS NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN COOLER AIR.
924 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/ PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF/CDFNT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ABOVE NOTED STORM SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING ABOUT MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING FORMING OVER THE EAST. A TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEK. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING START RAIN CHANCES OVER NW ALABAMA TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEK. WITH NO OTHER READINGS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND AND AFTER THE 25TH WILL BE IN JEOPARDY IF THESE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS HOLD.
313 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 UPPER TROF OVER WRN CO THIS AFTN WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ERN CO BY 00Z WITH A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH 18Z. SNOW DOES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
522 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF IOWA. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. WITH HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN SD REMAINING IN THE LOWER 20S ALL DAY TODAY. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE STORM LAKE IA VICINITY LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ADDING TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN THAT AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH PRIMARILY INCLUDE RAW DATA AND THE ECMWF SHORT RANGE MOS. THE STRATUS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES DEAD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOURLY OBS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS BY ONE DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 55 52 65 / 10 60 90 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 56 51 63 / 10 60 80 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 54 51 63 / 10 60 90 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 54 48 60 / 10 40 80 60.
WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS EVENING THAT SOME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MEANWHILE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PRESSURE RIDGE, THE RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IS PUSHING WARMER AIR AND CLOUDS OUR WAY. SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING, AS A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE COUNTRY MOVES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLC SEABOARD WITH A TRAILING RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR CWA STARTING BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AND SHIFT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RELAX SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
647 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WHILE THE NAMNEST AND RUC ARE NOT AS VIGOROUS EXPANDING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST WHERE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST.
SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH, WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY UNDERWAY AND COPIOUS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE COMING DAYS, KEEPING A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH DEW POINTS.
UPPER TROF OVER WRN CO THIS AFTN WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ERN CO BY 00Z WITH A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH 18Z. SNOW DOES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK QG ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
627 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST TODAY. WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SUBTLE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POUR OVER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS GLAKES AND THEN UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW.
645 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WHILE THE NAMNEST AND RUC ARE NOT AS VIGOROUS EXPANDING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. CONFINED THE MENTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST WHERE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) The upper level low over CO will move slowly eastward today. Above normal temperatures can be expected again today, slightly cooler across the western portion of the forecast area due to increased cloud cover along with the potential for at least scattered showers/storms this afternoon.
411 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015 (Today and Tonight) There is a threat for severe thunderstorms across the eastern half of West Central Texas today as an upper level trough associated with the upper low near the Four Corners moves across the region. This dryline should trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as the following ingredients come together: dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, moderate 0-6km shear, MU CAPE Values 1500-2000 J/KG, a weak capping inversion, and a right rear entrance region of the southern stream upper level jet flowing across the area. Went closer to the warmer MAV MOS for temps as the dry warm air invades the western part of the region today.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA WILL BUILD AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND BE PICKED UP BY AND PRECEDE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER ALTA. BETTER THAN 100M HEIGHT FALLS OCCURS EAST OF ALTA TROUGH THROUGH 84 HOURS.
SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS BRING MIN RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. NAM SHOWS TWO 500 MB TROUGHS WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH GETS ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN TROUGH WHICH HELPS TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE A 500 MB LOW MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
325 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE KILX CWA. AS A RESULT, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM.
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE 90 BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A building high pressure to the west will keep the Northern Rockies under a dry northwesterly flow Sunday.
1035 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight.
336 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across the southern Canadian provinces. mid-level short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THIS MOVEMENT EASTWARD THRU THE DAY WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX MORE OVER EASTERN ZONES AS UPPER LOWS TREKS EASTWARD.
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015 LOOK FOR WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW. ANOTHER RIPPLE IN MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INCREASE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40KTS AFTER 09Z. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW. SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAKENS AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.