Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
421 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 The broad upper high pressure system will drift towards the Four Corners region today keeping the FA in NW flow aloft. Outside of the slight movement in the upper highs position today will be a near carbon copy of yesterday. In addition any slight perturbations in the upper level high that rotate southward around the high and over the CWA could also kick off convection. Upper level high pressure will remain located over the Four Corners region with ridging extending into the northern Rockie Mountains on Sunday. By peak heating most CIN should be eroded with MUCAPES around 1500-2000 J/Kg across this region which should be sufficient for thunderstorm development along the trough and across the higher terrain of New Mexico.
619 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 146 AM CDT Quiet conditions will continue this holiday weekend as upper ridging becomes entrenched across the western Great Lakes. With an atypical orientation of the mid-level ridge extending NE into Ontario, WAA and moisture transport will occur on these NW winds. Temps will range from the low 80s south to near 90 along the WI state line. These temps may be slightly suppressed by smoke (well aloft) filtering around the ridge from western Ontario. With max temps reaching the low 90s area-wide, heat index values in the mid 90s are likely through the afternoon hours.
Temperatures might get a degree or two warmer than the current forecast, but otherwise no significant changes to the forecast area expected through this afternoon.
Combined with slightly warmer temperatures than previous days, expect elevated fire danger with near critical conditions along and west of the James River Valley this afternoon as humidity levels dip to 20 to 30 percent and winds gust up to 30 mph. A little warmer again today, especially along and west of the Missouri River in central SD where warm air advection will be most enhanced ahead of the approaching trough. Temperatures will slightly cooler east of I-29, where highs will reach near 90 degrees, and hottest along and west of the James River Valley with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are still expected, however, much- welcomed dew points in the low to mid-60s will allow pleasantly comfortable conditions for outdoor activities.
Broad surface ridging has settled across the region, centered on the lower Missouri Valley. Aloft, a narrow, positively tilted, ridge axis will slowly transition eastward through Sunday. In response, temperatures will be a bit warmer, high 80s, on July Fourth, but still quite enjoyable for the holiday.
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period. High temperatures will reach well into the 90s for many locations and into the low 100s for the lower valleys in north-central Idaho.
At 05Z, high pressure was centered over central IL. The cold front that passed through our area early today is now over central GA, AL and MS. For today, the high will shift south into southern IL, with dry northeast flow continuing today. High temperatures will reach 80-85 in valley areas, but be held in the upper 70s atop the higher plateau elevations.
Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler today across North- central Montana, but overall remain well above average through the weekend.
Upper level high over the Desert Southwest will continue to draw moisture north/northwest into portions of the Golden State again this afternoon.
The temperature forecast today and Sunday leans on the bias corrected short term model blend which is warmer than the guidance blend but cooler than the RAP and HRRR by a couple of degrees.
The flow over northeast Montana will still have plenty of influence from the hot ridge of high pressure across most of the western US.
527 AM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 The main storm track remains well to the north along the US/Canada border during the next 36 hours, while the H5 ridge begins to rebuild over the Four Corners region. The ridge is not particularly strong, so convection is still in the offing, starting on higher elevations and drifting east during the afternoon and evening. The ridge shifts slightly on Sunday, turning flow more for the southwest. Models show a dome of high pressure centered over UT/CO around this time with WY on the northern periphery of this high.
625 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build across the area with slightly cooler air working in the next couple days. Sea-bound cold front to take convection offshore by daybreak, crossing the Gulf Stream today. The mid level pattern will be transitioning from troughing to more of a westerly flow and eventual ridging from the southeast through the period. The surface features will include the Bermuda Azores High and the inland Piedmont Trough.
Update this morning expanded the higher rain chances farther south in the near-term and also nudged high temps downward a degree or two across northern areas with ongoing precip/clouds.
/issued 421 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021/ The broad upper high pressure system will drift towards the Four Corners region today keeping the FA in NW flow aloft. Outside of the slight movement in the upper highs position today will be a near carbon copy of yesterday. In addition any slight perturbations in the upper level high that rotate southward around the high and over the CWA could also kick off convection. Upper level high pressure will remain located over the Four Corners region with ridging extending into the northern Rockie Mountains on Sunday. By peak heating most CIN should be eroded with MUCAPES around 1500-2000 J/Kg across this region which should be sufficient for thunderstorm development along the trough and across the higher terrain of New Mexico.
STP An upper ridge looks to remain anchored over the southwestern US through this forecast period.
949 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build across the area with slightly cooler air working in the next couple days. Sea-bound cold front to take convection offshore by daybreak, crossing the Gulf Stream today. The mid level pattern will be transitioning from troughing to more of a westerly flow and eventual ridging from the southeast through the period. The surface features will include the Bermuda Azores High and the inland Piedmont Trough.
646 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 Upper level low pressure spinning over eastern PA will drift to the Southern New England Coast by this evening. Following the departure of this upper level feature, the 4th of July will be several degrees warmer with near normal temperatures and a slight increase in, but still comfortable humidity. An upper level disturbance riding southeast above a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley will bring and increase in clouds for Sunday afternoon and evening, and perhaps some showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the western half of the state Sunday evening.
818 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. With the dry air and winds falling off as the ridge continues to build in, strong radiational cooling will occur overnight into Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the low 60s, about 10 degrees below normal. As with most anomalous events, there's a good bit of spread amongst guidance on the overnight lows so steered towards the low end of guidance given the setup. Frontal remains will continue to weaken across the northern Gulf waters Sunday as high pressure will remain at the surface with the upper level trough moving further offshore and ridging building in across the region.
The weak/diffuse cold frontal boundary that pushed into SE TX yesterday remains stalled to the north of the I-10 corridor, remaining relatively stationary through the remainder of the weekend. With forecast soundings showing convective temperatures in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and evening, conditions will be very favorable for the development of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms.
The highest moisture will reside along the Highway 98 corridor, which will be around 1.
For Sunday, expect to see a similar day, but potentially less overall coverage in convection, as we may be a bit cooler, and somewhat more stable due to the convection we've seen the last 12 hours, and potentially additional storms tonight after midnight.
153 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 An upper level ridge will be centered over the four-corners region today and through the day on Sunday. A short wave trough will move from northwest to southeast around the upper ridge across the Central Plains. Therefore, large scale forcing will continue to remain weak or non-existent through Sunday afternoon in close proximity to this ridge. Regardless, a few swaths of strong-to-damaging winds from 50-70 mph will be possible, in addition to hail up to quarter size if the genesis of weak/transient mesocyclones are realized.
High pressure centered over southern Missouri is in control of the weather over the Tennessee Valley and much of the eastern CONUS this morning. Despite continued cold air advection, sunny skies should allow high temperatures to reach the lower to mid 80s in many locations.
It is quite dry under the ridge axis, currently centered just to our west. It will attempt to move through northern Wisconsin on Sunday, but the ridge will hold over the lower Great Lakes.
A surface trof/pseudo warm front is just about to the western edge of Corson County. This surface trof/boundary will be overtaken by a cold front later tonight.
249 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 Temperatures with abundant sunshine have reached the lower 80s so far in typically warmer areas. Drier air has moved south into the area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s in most locations. It should be a bit warmer though, with most models building 925 mb temperatures between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius over portions of northern Alabama. With abundant sunshine, this should translate into highs reaching the lower to mid 80s in most locations. However, humidity values will be fairly low, so it should still be a pleasant holiday, despite the warmer temperatures. As we go into Sunday night, the warm front to our south tries to move northward towards the area. This should translate into a bit more moist airmass and should keep lows a bit warmer.
Temps will be even warmer tomorrow, likely cracking 90 most places, if not the low 90s. Models have been trending a bit slower with the low pressure system and associated weak front that will approach Sunday night.
High pressure centered over the region will keep light winds and lower dewpoints over the region tonight and Sunday.
A weak cold front will push through the area this evening and this will provide only a slight cool down for Sunday. Prominent upper ridging will continue for most of the week.
243 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 With a ridge in the middle of the country and a deep trough near the Atlantic seaboard, the Quad State has northerly flow today at upper-levels which has kept conditions cooler than average along with fairly low dew points.
Warmer and humid air returns for Sunday through at least the first half of the workweek, with at least daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms before a cold front arrives by mid to late week. Amplified mid level flow pattern with a strong ridge building into the MS VLY and a deep trough/closed low over New England. Temperatures will be seasonable tonight with lows from the lower 60s southeast to the upper 60s northwest.
There is no organized weather system on the horizon that looks to shove this area of dominant high pressure out of our region, so plan for another hot week with very little, if any, precipitation.
The upper level ridge has allowed for mostly sunny but smoky skies and light winds across the area per the latest visible satellite imagery/metars.
238 PM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure has started to amplify over the Intermountain West as projected today with northwesterly flow aloft persisting across much of eastern Utah and western Colorado. In response to this building ridge, temperatures have trended generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings. Isolated to scattered convection has developed over the higher terrain with activity beginning to drift into the lower elevations. Sunday will see the high's center migrate over the Four Corners area. By Sunday evening clouds will be on the increase as a midlevel trough approaches from the west.
Light winds associated with the high pressure and weak large-scale subsidence with an upper-level ridge overhead establishing clear skies will allow another night of efficient radiational cooling to occur. Radiational cooling should be greatest across much of the Ozarks, in closer proximity of the high pressure center's forecast position early Sunday morning. On Sunday, the high pressure center will continue to the southeast of the CWA, marking the onset of low-level south-southwesterly flow and WAA beneath weak upper-level northwesterly flow.
That being said, there is a weak upper trough moving through the area, which may be enhanced by remnant outflow or MCV features, therefore a slight chance of thunder was added to most of the area late tonight into Sunday morning.
1040 AM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 The main storm track remains well to the north along the US/Canada border during the next 36 hours, while the H5 ridge begins to rebuild over the Four Corners region. The ridge is not particularly strong, so convection is still in the offing, starting on higher elevations and drifting east during the afternoon and evening. The ridge shifts slightly on Sunday, turning flow more for the southwest. Models show a dome of high pressure centered over UT/CO around this time with WY on the northern periphery of this high.
On Sunday, the 4th it will be a hot one as the heat builds while the upper ridge builds across the west for prevailing northwest flow to become established for the start of the week.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ A cooler and drier airmass remains in place in wake of the recent frontal passage. High pressure will continue to build in the region this evening. Should see mostly clear skies across the region, with the possible exception south of the highway 84 corridor of East Texas. For Sunday, expect the drier and cooler conditions to remain. Temps may be slightly warmer, with highs in the lower 90s. There is a slight chance for some POPs during the afternoon hours across Deep East Texas and adjacent Central Louisiana, as the previous front starts to return northward as a warm front. This will result in warmer overnight lows, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected across most of the region.
However, elongated mid level troughing over the Eastern CONUS will extend a bit farther south over the North Gulf Coast and the ridge over Texas will retreat West a skosh.
West southwest flow should continue through tomorrow with the ridge axis to our south and overspreading Cuba and South Florida.
We are truly enjoying rarefied air this fine Saturday, and tomorrow promises to be just as enjoyable, albeit a few degrees warmer. A broad area of high pressure covers the region today, and this will be the case tomorrow, as well.
At noontime, an upper level trough stretched southwest across the Southeast, with a stalled surface front located near the I-10 corridor. For Sunday, the northerly flow will help to move drier air a bit further south, maintaining the higher rain chances along and south of the coast. Around 90 to the low 90s expected north of I-10 with upper 80s closer to the coast.
This matches with HREF initialization and forecast data for today showing an unseasonably dry airmass across the region with surface ridging and deep northerly flow along the western edge of the longwave trough across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. With high pressure building across the region, VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period with generally light northerly winds. Today Currently, a closed low is located over the northeastern U. with the mid/upper trough centered just west of the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, ~1,015mb high pressure is centered over the Central Plains with the previous frontal boundary to our south.
Temperatures will moderate a bit and while they will still remain warm, some anticipated cloud cover, drier air, and breezy winds should allow the daytime high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler and the overnight temperatures will aide in recovery better than we saw last week.
1135 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build across the area with slightly cooler air working in the next couple days. Sea-bound cold front to take convection offshore by daybreak, crossing the Gulf Stream today. The mid level pattern will be transitioning from troughing to more of a westerly flow and eventual ridging from the southeast through the period. The surface features will include the Bermuda Azores High and the inland Piedmont Trough.
Off the bat, the first question is how far southward the cold front from Sunday night sags. For temps, the warm weekend will spread into the start of the new work week, with cooler air moving in Tue/Wed. as surface/upper level ridge remains in control over the area. Pressure gradient tightens on the backside of ridge after 09z Sunday and winds speeds will increase at both RST/LSE taf sites.
/EC/ The cold front has reached the Highway 84 corridor and shouldn't push much farther south before stalling. The highest moisture will reside along the Highway 98 corridor, which will be around 1.
Persistent southerly flow has allowed some low level moisture to return to the Central High Plains with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. We may see other attempts at elevated convection across portions of central KS towards dawn on the eastern periphery of the low level moisture transport/edge of the H85-H3 MUCAPE axis but confidence in wetting rains remains fairly low with some morning ACCAS more likely and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. A persistent mid/upper ridge is progged to remain situated across the Central Great Basin area while weak northwest mid/upper flow prevails downstream across the central CONUS.
243 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 Stalled frontal boundary is situated across south/south central GA, with a sprawling high pressure centered across the middle of the country. The old frontal boundary should remain nearly stationary through the period, possibly pushing just a little further south as the high center builds eastward through tomorrow.
High pressure will continue to build in the region today from the northeast in wake of the recent frontal passage. Otherwise, expect cooler, drier, and less humid conditions across the region today with high temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are still expected, however, much- welcomed dew points in the low to mid-60s will allow pleasantly comfortable conditions for outdoor activities.
348 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 Tonight through Sunday: By July standards at least, the weather this weekend will be comfortable over most of the ArkLaMiss region as a large trough resides temporarily over the eastern CONUS. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall well into the 60s generally north of the Highway 84 corridor.
204 PM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler this afternoon across North-central Montana, but overall remain well above average through the weekend.
Meanwhile, aloft, ridging was slightly further west, and troughing was over the northeast CONUS. A dry low level air mass emanating from the high was still in place over the JKl forecast area. In the upper levels we will still be under the southwest edge of the departing trough. With warmer and more humid air in place, Sunday night will be milder.
1005 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure centered over southern Missouri is in control of the weather over the Tennessee Valley and much of the eastern CONUS this morning. Despite continued cold air advection, sunny skies should allow high temperatures to reach the lower to mid 80s in many locations.
The cold front has reached the Highway 84 corridor and shouldn't push much farther south before stalling. The highest moisture will reside along the Highway 98 corridor, which will be around 1.
Afternoon and evening storms will develop along the higher terrain of Colorado. Have the highest pops across Hamilton county. Weak lee troughing will continue Sunday.
217 PM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 500hpa short wave trof moving through mean flow. dragging 700hpa and sfc trofs will bring chances for pcpn this evening. Even with 500hpa ridging trying to build into the upper plains through the beginning of the week.
1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 146 AM CDT Quiet conditions will continue this holiday weekend as upper ridging becomes entrenched across the western Great Lakes. With an atypical orientation of the mid-level ridge extending NE into Ontario, WAA and moisture transport will occur on these NW winds. Temps will range from the low 80s south to near 90 along the WI state line. These temps may be slightly suppressed by smoke (well aloft) filtering around the ridge from western Ontario. With max temps reaching the low 90s area-wide, heat index values in the mid 90s are likely through the afternoon hours.
236 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Weak downsloping winds will offset some of the cold air advection and allow temperatures to get into the mid 80s for most areas and possibly upper 80s in warmer spots. With the dry air and winds falling off as the ridge continues to build in, strong radiational cooling will occur overnight into Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the low 60s, about 10 degrees below normal. As with most anomalous events, there's a good bit of spread amongst guidance on the overnight lows so steered towards the low end of guidance given the setup.
High pressure results in a clear sky and light winds. Temperatures increase slightly on Sunday as upper ridge shifts toward the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than on Saturday, and will be near normal for this time of year. Subsidence on the eastern side of the upper ridge will keep us dry with the cool, continental boundary layer airmass resulting in continued seasonably dry air.
1251 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Weak downsloping winds will offset some of the cold air advection and allow temperatures to get into the mid 80s for most areas and possibly upper 80s in warmer spots. With the dry air and winds falling off as the ridge continues to build in, strong radiational cooling will occur overnight into Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the low 60s, about 10 degrees below normal. As with most anomalous events, there's a good bit of spread amongst guidance on the overnight lows so steered towards the low end of guidance given the setup.
A large high pressure system located to the west will continue to maintain dry and clear conditions. TAFs are all one-liners this evening as a large area of high pressure to the west maintains clear and dry conditions. High pressure results in a clear sky and light winds. Temperatures increase slightly on Sunday as upper ridge shifts toward the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than on Saturday, and will be near normal for this time of year. Subsidence on the eastern side of the upper ridge will keep us dry with the cool, continental boundary layer airmass resulting in continued seasonably dry air.
829 PM MDT Sat Jul 3 2021 Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler this afternoon across North-central Montana, but overall remain well above average through the weekend.
1048 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 High pressure will build in for the weekend bringing dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Cold front remains well to the south in southern GA and with drier air over the forecast area, expect mostly clear skies to continue and as result, favorable radiational cooling. Remained on the lower side of guidance for lows tonight in conjunction with our local radiational scheme.