Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, high pressure is located across the midwest with southerly boundary layer flow across the CWA. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening, and especially overnight, as the front and an area of low pressure move into the area.
241 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 High pressure will move over the region overnight, giving us calm winds and well below normal low temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. The high will move east of the PAH forecast on Saturday, and winds will shift to the south. We should see mostly sunny to sunny skies on Saturday with highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the 55 to 60 degree range. ECMWF and the Canadian are in fairly good agreement spreading precipitation into our west and northwest counties late Saturday night ahead of a low pressure system approaching the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys. GFS is about 6 hours slower with movement of the low and precipitation onset, but takes the low on the same general track.
142 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A trough will remain near the coast through the weekend. A cold front approaching from the northwest will be near the forecast area tonight and Saturday.
A weak trough axis at 700 mb will be in place this afternoon and will provide enough of a focus for shower and possible storm development for areas mainly east of an Eagle Pass to Boerne to Georgetown line. These are the locations east of the trough axis and where the best moisture will be located today. Highs will be in the lower 90s in the Hill Country and middle to upper 90s elsewhere. Lows Saturday will be in the 70s with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
357 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Upper low over eastern Wisconsin continues to move slowly east, but its influence extends back into eastern MN with just a few isolated showers into southeast MN, and more coverage from the northeast metro into northeast MN and certainly western WI. High pressure along the MN/SD border will drop to the southeast. Toss in northwest winds diminishing quickly this evening and turning to the south, and temps tonight will mainly be in the lower 50s. This will promote at least slightly cooler than normal temperatures and we will remain in a more favored area for weak embedded short waves affecting the region.
603 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 High pressure will build into the region beginning tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing east of the area. The high will move across the region through the weekend.
145 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Aviation A low pressure system strengthening near Green Bay this morning will track northeast through the day. An area of high pressure in the western plains states will build east today and Saturday. The mid to upper low was off to the west in Wisconsin while the dry slot has overspread the region at this time. thus cooler than normal temperatures are expected. The upper wave in here early in the week will move by, and leave a short wave ridge in control. Return flow will eventually help to push temps to near average levels in the lower 80s by Wed.
Other than that, much of the area will experience a period of mostly dry and pleasant weather today and tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lee trough transitions east through Saturday and increasing WAA will support High temperatures returning to near normal (around 90F) by Saturday afternoon. At the start of the period, an upper ridge to the southwest and troughing over southeastern Canada places the High Plains under northwest flow.
Atlantic high pressure ridges across the state to the Gulf of Mexico today while a trough of low pressure along the northern Gulf coast continues. However deep moisture remains with the trough to the north.
The low level thermal trough modifies so expecting temps to show a decent rebound after the cool Friday.
308 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will continue to move through the region this afternoon. High pressure will shift south of the area on Saturday.
A weak mid/upper level low/trough will move over Northern California by tomorrow and will become almost stationary through the weekend.
This low pressure and LLJ will be the driving force for a potential dangerous hydrological event over the region. PWAT values will increase to greater than 2" with a 45-50kt LLJ providing plenty of lift along the elevated warm frontal boundary.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure resides over the western third of the CONUS and southern British Columbia. A large trough of cooler weather extends from the Great Lakes through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Northeast Montana sets under the cooler side of northwest flow between these two large airmasses.
Satellite imagery was showing a low pressure disturbance digging SE through Alberta toward NE Montana early this afternoon while a weak disturbance that was positioned off the NW coast yesterday is being entrained in the flow and advancing toward CNTRL Idaho.
106 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The cold front which pushed through the CWA last night has allowed northwest flow to take hold. Friday night, the high will push off to the east and Southerly flow will return. The main focus looks to be the warm front which is expected to come through the region during the late afternoon and evening with another cold front not far behind. The high moisture transport and PW levels will make any thunderstorms very efficient rain makers.
224 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 High pressure was centered over northeast Kansas today providing temperatures that are much below normal. That story will change as the cold front that brought these cool temperatures, returns north as a warm front and is the focus for convection over the next several days. For tonight, the warm front will return into the forecast area after 06z.
For today, the Great Lakes trough will move eastward during the day, and drag a cold front through the region. Saturday looks to be a great day, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s with plenty of sunshine.
317 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 This afternoon, high pressure resided over the area bringing light winds and clear skies over northeast Kansas. A lee cyclone develops in eastern Colorado through the afternoon shifting a frontal boundary across parts of central and northeastern Kansas. Once again, this seems to be a conditional threat and will depend on how much destablilzation can occur behind this warm frontal boundary. Temperatures tomorrow will be even cooler than today due to the precipitation and cloud cover, with heights ahead of the boundary in the mid 70s and into the 80s near central Kansas. This wave appears to drive a cold front through the area, and by the evening it should be pushing into southeast KS. Also in question will be the coverage of storms along the advancing cold front in the late afternoon.
An enlongated upper level 594 mb high pressure cell has sat stagnant over south Florida today. The warm atmosphere will hold through the night, with minimum temperatures generally only falling into the low 80s.
506 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 High pressure will build into the region beginning tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing east of the area. The high will move across the region through the weekend.
222 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery clearly shows the center of the upper low over northern Wisconsin, with very little progress of the western extent of the clouds overnight. The upper low will make progress eastward by late morning and pull the cloud cover and associate showers with it to the east. Breezy northwest winds of 10-15 MPH are expected for today, but 850H temps will warm to 8-10C as 500H heights continue to rise as the low pushes east. So, with mixing heights around 850H, highs today in the low 70s should be common for most, with a few spots getting into the mid 70s. Another cool night in store with lows in the low to mid 50s. Thus, keeping our region slightly cooler than normal and mainly dry.
Low level moisture in general has been slow to clear, at least in part due to the saturated soils from yesterdays widespread rainfall and a lack of westerly flow in the lower levels.
153 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Deepening low pressure approaching northern CA will continue to deepen onshore flow through the period.
Think we could see a few storms develop in these areas, if not over the higher terrain, as temperatures rise closer to normal levels this afternoon.
332 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 An area of strong low pressure over the Central Great Lakes will force a strong cold front across the local area today. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend.
A low pressure system moving through Quebec Saturday will help to drive a cold front through the region late in the day.
Additional convection getting way over the higher terrain of New Mexico will also have to be watched as it will drift eastward and may attempt to move into the far western/northwestern zones late this evening before diminishing completely. Lows tonight will be back down in the 60s on the Caprock, with lower 70s common for the lower elevations to the east. Saturday will see temperatures warm further from today with afternoon readings topping out closer to August averages (in the lower to middle 90s). The weather should turn more unsettled by late weekend as additional disturbances passing through the northwesterly flow aloft blanketing the center of the nation propel a cold front down into the South Plains.
337 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 High pressure will build into the region beginning tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing east of the area. The high will move across the region through the weekend.
Canadian high pressure will drift southeast of the region today, bringing mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. Highs will range in the mid 70s, to the lower 80s.
309 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A disturbance will move southeast over the region through the weekend, behind the Canadian cold front that brought gusty northerly winds today. This will bring cooler than normal temperatures for the period, as well as a chance of showers and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
If these storms are able to train over the same locations for a few hours, a risk for flash flooding will evolve given the high moisture content that will be present within the Ozarks airmass.
317 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A strong area of low pressure will push a cold front through the area later today and this evening. High pressure will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. Main forcing associated with a vigorous upper level wave and attendant cold front was west of our forecast area at this time. Upper level trough axis moves east of the region while surface ridging also occurs from high pressure in the mid Atlantic. Overnight lows will range in the lower to middle 50s.
Overnight lows will fall off into the lower to mid 70s by Saturday morning with the boundary lifting back northward as a warm during the daytime hours. This will keep a chance for isolated to widely scattered convection going through Saturday evening with another hot and humid day as highs push back into the lower to mid 90s once again.
A weather disturbance and cold front will cross the Continental Divide westward and shift south across western Montana this evening, causing increasing winds. This cold front and upper level weather disturbance will also further moisten the atmosphere, mainly over northwest Montana (again, mainly north and east of Missoula) and support a few showers through much of the night. North Central Idaho and Lemhi County, ID will remain largely unaffected by the cold front and weather disturbance, so status quo is generally expected through Saturday.
Trailing cold front is finally starting to make some inroads across eastern upper and into nw lower MI. A relatively narrow n-s band of deeper moisture (immediately beneath and just ahead of the sharp 500mb trof) will transit northern MI from w to e over the next 12-ish hours. Otherwise, the exit of the upper trof toward western Quebec, and high pressure crossing the OH Valley, will provide for quieter wx Saturday. Some breezy sw winds are seen presently ahead of the cold front, with gustier nw to n winds behind.
The overall pattern will feature an upper level ridge of high pressure across the western states with an upper level trof over the eastern part of the country. For today and tonight, the weak cold front that pushed through most of the area yesterday will become diffuse and slowly dissipate. For Saturday and Saturday night, a surface trof of low pressure will slide into the nwrn third of the fcst area from ern NM and sern CO.
134 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will bring strong to possibly severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Cooler weather for this weekend.
Most of this activity is just ahead of a cold front which is moving through the region. High pressure will start to build into the region bringing somewhat drier air into the forecast area. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight with lows Saturday morning from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian brings precipitation after 06z, with the ECMWF bringing the highest amounts.
Deepening low pressure approaching northern CA will continue to deepen onshore flow through the period.
Cooler and unsettled weather with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms is on tap for the weekend under persistent cyclonic flow associated with the upper trof.
Closer to the ridge axis locales are mainly calm with the aforementioned partly cloudy to clear skies. A lee-side trough will set up over the Front Range. The focus will be those locales along and just east of the lee-side trough. allowing for the lee-side trough to work off the Front Range and eventually meander over a good portion of Kansas to start off the weekend. The movement of the trough into the Plains region will allow for areal coverage of potential storms to increase with best chances still closest to the trough. The remnants of the lee-side trough/boundary will meander over the region Saturday allowing for storms to develop along it.
Compressional heating ahead of the front will allow some areas to hit the mid 90s this afternoon so did go a degree or so warmer area wide compared to our previous forecast.
The general trend of troughing across the NE and SERN Canada coupled with high pressure over the desert SW & NW MX will persist.
As the main upper trough has settled over northern Lk Michigan dry air moved into the area quickly this aftn really diminishing the rain across the forecast area. Once diurnal driven clouds clear out later this evening, high pressure overhead will lead to clear skies and light winds which should allow for good radiational cooling. Went toward lower guidance which has temps inland west falling into the low to mid 30s. However, since dwpnts are still rather high this aftn in the low 50s think we'll see temps more in the mid to upper 30s with better shot of dew and fog instead of frost.
145 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will push through the area today, bringing showers through the area, with a chance for thunderstorms in especially the eastern forecast area. Dry conditions and high pressure will then move into the region for tonight into Saturday, bringing below normal temperatures. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the forecast area today in advance of a cold front. Temperatures will be cooler today with cloud cover, precipitation, and the cold front moving through. As clouds begin to clear the area from south to north as the upper low pivots the NE, winds gradually diminish from south to north overnight with below normal temperatures into the mid 50s Friday night.
Cold frontal boundary currently bisecting the cwa sw-ne and will continue ewd through nw OH by mid morning. Lake based thermal trough maximizes this aftn and given residual low level theta-e/lake based instability contribution will reinsert tsra mention. Otherwise broad sfc ridging follows across the srn lakes through mid period as seasonably cool temps persist within larger scale w-nw flow regime aloft. Low pressure centered on Lake Michigan combined with a well packed boundary layer pressure gradient has resulted in increased winds and widespread stratus/stratocu over the forecast area. Cold pool over warm waters of Lake MI and the high shear has resulted in convective development along and leeward of the lake.
615 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 High pressure will build into the region beginning tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing east of the area. The high will move across the region through the weekend.
The responsible cold front has slowed down and is beginning to stall out across extreme southeast Oklahoma where dew points are still in the lower 70s. Could still see a few showers and thunderstorms across extreme southeast Oklahoma this afternoon in the vicinity of the cold front. The chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast late Tonight across northeast Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases to the north of the frontal boundary which will be returning north as a warm front Tonight into Saturday.
In fact, as of this writing, temperatures have only rebounded back into the low 60s across the area. Through 1 PM, the high temperature has only gotten to 62 degrees at both sites. As this occurs, wind speeds will abate and the low clouds will clear the area this evening. A warmer airmass will then work back over the area for Saturday.
Cooler temperatures aloft will continue into Saturday with mainly light forcing.
530 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A crossing cold front will end the thunderstorm threat this evening. A series of updates is forthcoming which will end the severe thunderstorm watch from the west upon passage of the cold front. The severe threat will continue in advance of the boundary though given the increasing shear associated with the encroacing upper trough axis. Improvement thereafter will be rapid as the temperature and dewpoint drops under the aforementioned trough.
Heading through the day tomorrow, as the low edges slightly closer and moisture aloft continues to increase, there's the potential for a storm or two to develop from the northern Trinity County south towards Covelo and the Yolla Bolly Mountains.
331 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Early this afternoon, the radar scope showed scattered thunderstorms sparking up ahead of a cold front that was pushing southward between Clarksville and Nashville.
A weak 850 mb trough of low pressure over N TX will also slide SE and may serve as a focus for aftn storms. The region will lie in the LFQ of the approaching speed max later this aftn and feel this feature in combination with the deep moisture, approaching 850 mb trough and heating will provide the area with a good chance of showers and storms this afternoon into this evening.
322 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure along the KS/MO border north into the northern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this afternoon and overnight as Canadian high pressure moves through the Midwest. Saturday night: Low pressure is expected to track east along the main synoptic front through the Central Plains and mid MS River valley, drawing gulf moisture northward for a possibly heavy rainfall event across eastern KS into northern MO. Increasing dewpoints and cloud cover will lead to a warmer night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
343 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The synoptic scale pattern continues to be dominated by broad cyclonic flow over the eastern CONUS with a weak area of high pressure over the southwestern states. Today, a few thunderstorms are trying to push off the higher terrain in northeastern NM. Thunderstorms should initiate along the lee trough as moisture convergence increases during the afternoon.
104 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will continue moving away from the area.
352 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Hudson Bay low and associated closed low moving through the Great Lakes with a trough into the southeast CONUS. Sharp ridge along the west coast with record heat into the Pacific Northwest. Warm front to lift to the northeast across the forecast area tonight with warmer over night lows realized.
Closed low in Nevada remains essentially stationary through the daylight hours.
225 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A slow moving upper level low pressure system will move through the region tonight.
Heavy rain and flash flooding possible this weekend into much of Our region sits between a large upper trough that has developed across the West and a ridge over the Ohio River Valley. Other than some isolated storms in the higher terrain today, the main show begins Saturday.
Trough currently sitting over the Great Basin will be slow to depart the region. Dry weather returns for the end of the weekend as the next high pressure moves in off the Pacific.
An inverted trough axis and onshore flow is allowing for a 20 to 40 percent coverage of showers and storms east of I-35 this afternoon. Could see some patchy fog once again across the eastern counties as the low-level airmass remains moist there.
325 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large area of high pressure will provide mild temperatures and mainly clear skies through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region through this period and post tropical storm Jose moves farther off the east coast. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower to middle 50s with lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to middle 80s.
Deep high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the Midwest today and Saturday.
High pressure will continue to ridge southward from the northeast U. A trough/low out west will amplify into midweek as ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered to our north while Maria moves northward across the western Atlantic.
Satellite this morning shows upper low centered over Idaho with clouds rotating around the low into eastern and central Oregon. 12z models continue to show upper ridge building into the region this weekend with fair weather. A long wave upper trough over the region will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area through the next 24 hours.
1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A significant mid-level trough from the northern Inter-mountain region into Great Basin early this morning will slowly edge east through the Interior West this weekend.
1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate our regional weather today with another very warm afternoon in store. High temperatures will be back in the lower 90s again today with southerly breezes 10 to 15 mph. The upper level ridge continues to hold on to our weather pattern on Saturday with another very warm day with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
However, the upper level high will begin breaking down as we move toward midweek. Then a cold front will approach the Ohio Valley but the upper level ridging will still be in place.
Fall officially begins this afternoon and cooler weather will certainly come in the future, but it won't be today. VFR returns by 14Z with high pressure remaining in control across the region.
1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large upper trough/low will continue to settle into the Southwestern states into this weekend. In addition, the main focus area for showers/thunderstorms will be near the lee trough over western Kansas, and along a slow, southward moving cold front in Nebraska.
318 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 An upper level trough spinning over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies will slowly shift eastward tonight and Saturday. Airmass has becomes unstable over the mountains and nearby plains this afternoon ahead of the upper level trough. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to move across the higher terrain through early evening. A cold front will drop south across the eastern plains late this afternoon and evening. Expect lighter precipitation for the higher terrain and Front Range. Will lean towards the cooler NAM because of the expected cloud cover, but will not go as cold.