Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front bringing drier air into northeast OK this afternoon should limit fog potential and will result in cooler overnight lows, with some upper 50s likely near the KS/OK border.
The distant upper trough will exit away from Oklahoma through the Missouri Valley.
Upper low currently situated over northern Illinois, with a weak surface boundary arcing to the south and southwest. Tuesday will see a continuation of the unsettled weather as the upper low moves slowly to the east, but the surface boundary lingers back into the Ohio Valley. Precip chances should die off even more quickly after sunset, as the upper low should be pulling out of the picture.
High pressure will begin to shift east allowing for additional moisture to return through the week.
Harvey remains along the Texas Coast, an upper-level low is moving through the Great Lakes region, and what is currently "Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten" is moving up the Carolina Coasts. Since we're in the middle of these, we should remain fairly dry overall due to the weak northeasterly flow, but I've included mention for slight chance of rain/storms on Tuesday since we are near the base of the trough. Overall, Harvey is expected to slowly move north- northeast towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Mid level closed low currently centered over the Chicago vicinity will drift eastward while gradually weakening to an open wave by Tuesday afternoon when it is directly over southeastern Michigan. Daytime heating will increase cape values nr 1k joules with K indices in the low to mid 30s. May have some sun in the beginning of the day but overall should be cloudy Tuesdays but highs will be slightly warmer then today as lower level temps increase a few degrees.
1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Strong upper level ridging across The Wrn U. A strong upper level ridge will remain over the western US keeping high pressure situated over the central US.
Some of the high-level cirrus outflow from Tropical Storm Harvey has already become entrained into the circulation of the Wisconsin closed low.
A greater amount of sunshine is prog to occur Tuesday which should result in warmer/hotter temps.
A broad northern stream trough will cover much of the eastern half of the country today with its core over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. The Tri-State area remains sandwiched between Harvey (west), the upper trough (north), and Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 10 (east). The extensive cloud cover should keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers, and in the lower to middle 80s to the east.
312 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A mid level vort max moving northeast across Kentucky ahead of an approaching mid level trough has given enough forcing this afternoon to yield widespread showers across most of eastern Kentucky. Focus for showers will shift back to the northwest with the mid level trough overnight, leaving eastern Kentucky mainly dry. Mid level trough will dampen as it moves east and get absorbed by the tropical system moving up the east coast.
149 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A 594dm high pressure center is centered over southwest Utah early this afternoon with northerly flow aloft over the area. This high pressure center will remain nearly stationary through the period. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s which is a few degrees below normal. With the CWA remaining downstream of a highly amplified upper level ridge, this period should be dry and warm.
353 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Quiet weather over the CWA this afternoon and this will continue overnight with mainly clear skies as an upper high maintains its influence over the region. The upper high centered over the Nevada/Utah area will move little through Weds with the CWA under a generally northwesterly upper flow. Southerly winds over the high plains will bring a little more moisture across the CWA over the next couple days and with a couple weak impulses expected to pass by the area we should see isolated afternoon and evening showers and tstms mainly around the mtns into the adjacent high plains the next couple days.
130 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper low will bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms today into Tuesday, best chances this morning and again Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid 70s each day. An upper low over WI will drop south toward the IL/WI border today, then drifting into ne IL/far nw IN by later tonight. Scattered showers/isolated storms will likely fire across northern IL later this afternoon under the upper low. Chances for scattered rain showers will continue into Tuesday as the upper low spins east through the local area.
547 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Latest satellite imagery shows the mid-level low currently over nrn IL this afternoon with the low progged to shift over the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. Weak instability/forcing associated with the low combined with daytime heating continues to produce widely scattered showers over portions of Upper Michigan, however this activity will diminish as the sun sets.
344 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 At 2 pm, isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the higher terrain with most of the activity occurring across the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains. Temperatures are noticeably cooler compared to this time yesterday, with readings in the 70s to lower 80s. Given the northerly deep layer flow, storms will move south and will remain along the higher terrain. Not much change in the mid lvl pattern and thus weather tomorrow will be similar to todays weather, with most, if not all, of the isolated thunder remaining over the higher terrain. One thing that will be different is temps will warm up once again, and expect max temps to be about 4-7 degrees warmer than todays max temps.
335 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Dry and cool weather will continue as high pressure remains in control.
An upper level low pressure system is projected to slowly cross the region and spawn scattered showers. The late afternoon update featured some adjustments to POPs over areas along and west of I 77 given the encroachment of some light showers associated with warm, moist advection on the eastern flank of closed low pressure over Lake Michigan. These are not expected to amount to much or spread eastward in significant coverage through Tuesday given overall subsidence between the aforementioned low and coastal troughing.
/Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ High pressure continued to be the main feature across the Southern Plains this morning with mostly clear skies and light winds observed over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Slightly more cloud cover south of Interstate 40 could also be possible this afternoon which may create a non zero potential of an isolated thunderstorm within the higher terrain locations. high temps close to or a degree or so warmer compared to yesterday is forecast this afternoon. Heat and humidity underneath high pressure is expected to remain common through the rest of the week with forecast temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100+ possible by the end of the work week.
Upper level winds are beginning to weaken as low pressure in the Pacific Northwest lifts into western Canada today. High pressure slowly builds into the desert southwest over the next few days, but weak troughiness lingering over northern California will keep the ridge from building over the west coast.
The ridge starts to build up again today, so it should be another nice warm day with above average temperatures.
233 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper-ridge across the southern plains to maintain hot and mainly dry conditions across the ArkLaTex through the remainder of the week and early into the weekend.
/26/ Today and Tonight: Mid and upper level ridge axis will continue to slowly nudge southeast over the forecast area from a center over the Central Plains. Elsewhere though, more substantial soil moisture from recent rains and better evapotranspiration from the prevalent green vegetation should keep dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
Otherwise, we are in a rinse and repeat cycle with thunderstorms likely to form over the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain with a slight chance of storms making way into the lower desert.
1205 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper ridge will build over the area the next couple of days and likewise the heat.
318 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A trough of low pressure will keep isolated showers and thunderstorms around the area Wednesday. High pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the rest of the week, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. Mid evening MSAS has a sfc trof across the mts with high pres over the area.
306 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure will continue to provide mainly dry and clear conditions tonight.
The pattern changes on Mon as an upper low moves into southern BC with a trof over the Pac NW. Persistent upper ridging will maintain VFR conditions into Thu.
139 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending into the region remains through the end of the week.
Mid/upper level low will move east across eastern North Carolina today which will push an upper trough axis across se Ga into ne Fl. Slightly drier mid level air will move in on the back side of the trough resulting in lower coverage of storms across southeast Ga.
PoPs generally vary 40-60% onshore with the highest rain chances north and west of Panama City. An interesting upper level pattern is expected to start evolving during the short term with an upper level low cutting off across the eastern Carolinas and then retrograding south and west.
405 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The rest of the work week looks hot and dry as high pressure aloft settles over the southern Plains. This area of high pressure is much better defined in the latest water vapor imagery with broad anti-cyclonic flow noted. Weak downslope winds will also help boost temperatures a bit, so went a few degrees above guidance as it has not handled the high temperatures well as of late. Also nudged towards the warmer guidance for overnight lows as a moderate low level jet should help prevent maximum decoupling.
The upper level pattern early this morning was characterized with a trough near the Pacific Northwest coast, and strong high pressure centered over southwest Kansas. At any rate, the high resolution models were similar regarding precip potential later today and into tonight. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms this evening, with the lowest PoPs across western Pima County.
317 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Looking like a carbon copy of yesterday as the upper ridge strengthens to our north and moisture remains entrenched across the higher terrain. Temperatures will stay near normal today in our area, but you don't have to go too far north to see triple digits closer to the center of the upper high. The upper ridge shifts slightly to the east late in the week allowing a mid level disturbance to move west across TX.
Upper-level ridging will strengthen w/ the models showing rising heights and H7 temperatures around +16 to +19 deg C at 21z. High pressure centered over Kansas/Oklahoma does not quite move as far east today as earlier thought, so guidance has started to force the main push of monsoonal moisture to the north and west this afternoon. The aforementioned high should move east for Thursday, allowing a better push of mid/high level moisture across the CWA along with stronger disturbances lifting northeast along the edge of the ridge. Temperatures on Thursday should be a bit cooler with the increase in cloud cover.
Look for the cold front that crossed our area this morning to push back north in the form of a warm front Wednesday afternoon. The highest temperatures will be across our southwestern counties, where 100-103 degrees will not be out of the question. The main limiting factor will be warm EML aloft, with temps pushing +13C and warmer and H7.
This dry air is associated with upper level high pressure extending from the Panhandle to the Ozarks and beyond. This should keep precipitation chances shut off for the remainder of the work at which time the ridge retreats eastward and an upper level short wave trough moves across southwest and south central Canada.
Broad upper ridging across the central/southern Plains will continue to strengthen across the Tennessee Valley.
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Weak high pressure will prevail across the region into this morning. A weak cold front will cross Maine Wednesday night.
By Thursday, this ridge will take full grasp of Kentucky with continued height increases, while the closed low drops southward along the SE Atlantic coast, heading towards Florida. While high pressure should be in control at the surface across the CWA, can't rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm once more along the VA border due to the close proximity to the upper level disturbance. Heat indices will be in the low 90s, which isn't bad considering, thanks to the fact that main flow will be out of the NW and N, and not a more moist southerly flow which would have resulted in much higher humidity and heat indices. High pressure at the surface continue to move across the region as well.
With a high pressure centered overhead, there should be enough subsidence in place to keep the cu from developing further. This high pressure should remain in place through the end of the week.
Water Vapor imagery shows the monsoon plume over a good part of the SW CONUS, with a well defined TUTT cell (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) over southeast NM/far W TX. with 40s and 50s in the higher terrain. This will place the Hayden and Waldo burn scars in the higher precip region, and these two scars will have to be watched carefully later this afternoon. Expect precip to drop off after the mid evening hours across the higher terrain and Palmer Divide regions.
A low pressure system offshore will continue moving east and will move across the region on Thursday for a threat of showers.
354 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure continued to be the main feature across the Southern Plains this morning with mostly clear skies and light winds observed over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Slightly more cloud cover south of Interstate 40 could also be possible this afternoon which may create a non zero potential of an isolated thunderstorm within the higher terrain locations. high temps close to or a degree or so warmer compared to yesterday is forecast this afternoon. Heat and humidity underneath high pressure is expected to remain common through the rest of the week with forecast temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100+ possible by the end of the work week.
224 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area today with temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front approaches late this afternoon in northern New York and evening in Vermont with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
351 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Today and Tonight: Mid and upper level ridge axis will continue to slowly nudge southeast over the forecast area from a center over the Central Plains. Elsewhere though, more substantial soil moisture from recent rains and better evapotranspiration from the prevalent green vegetation should keep dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
Convection has be very limited across the region today, with the inverted trough to the west of the region now, and as GOES-16 total precipitable water imager shows drier air has push into the region. Upper level ridging that has been centered well to the north will continue to slowly sink further southeast over the region during the period. By Wednesday night the area will be well under the influence of the upper level ridging, and maintained a dry forecast by this time.
Synoptically, the influence of a weak tropical wave/moisture plume will diminish by late Wednesday, but it appears overall lift will remain enhanced Thursday as a weak upper-level low pressure may develop along the GA/SC coast.
256 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Current surface map places high pressure across Minnesota. Stationary front located across northern Nebraska into Wyoming with area of low pressure along the front in southern Montana. As surface sets up near Black Hills this afternoon, thunderstorms expected to develop around the Hills and expand eastward along the warm front. Moisture pooling along the warm front will provide plenty of instability, with MLCAPE of 3000+ J/KG from the Black Hills into central South Dakota.
The very juicy airmass that supported the locally heavier rainfall with showers/storms yesterday will be shunted somewhat southward today as the surface frontal boundary gets dragged south ahead of weak high pressure. The low-level jet is expected to veer westerly later in the night with the better moisture transport quickly shifting eastward, helping to keep the system progressive.
This should continue overnight as the eastern fringe of a high pressure area moves over us. Clouds will continue to clear and lows will fall to the lower 70s. The broad upper ridge stretching from the Four Corners region of the SW CONUS into the Southern Plains will gradually build eastward through the period.
Aloft, the deep warm air over the SW shifts into the Midwest as the upper ridge starts to dominate the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. as temps at the surface will move into the low to mid 90s. Plenty of moisture in the low levels will keep the dwpts in the 70s and push the heat indices into the low 100s. Given the models poor performance in handling last nights convection and/or overestimating the inhibition offered by the ridge. The low level moisture is not moving in a relatively static airmass. Overnight lows will generally not drop below the lower 70s. and the slightly cooler air to the north as a series of waves move through the zonal flow to the north. and somewhat cooler max temps.
456 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area today with temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front approaches late this afternoon in northern New York and evening in Vermont with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
606 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Weak high pressure will prevail across the region into this morning. A weak cold front will cross Maine Wednesday night.
Strong ridge of high pressure will continue to limit convection across the Tennessee Valley.
A cold front will bring a small chance for thunderstorms over the eastern third of Washington and north Idaho Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with breezy conditions developing through the day.
330 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 /Today and Tonight/ Early this morning, a few showers had developed across East TX beneath the southern periphery of the H5 ridge, analyzed to be across Oklahoma. Experimental water vapor imagery shows the H5 ridge quite well and with increasing subsidence as this feature takes hold across the region, the threat for precipitation in theory should be near zero for most areas. The fly in the ointment to the PoP forecast today, however, could be what appears to be subtle ascent in the form of mid/upper level clouds sliding southwestward along the southern periphery of the ridge.
328 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area today with temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front approaches late this afternoon in northern New York and evening in Vermont with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Upper ridge will amplify to our west on Wednesday with thermal ridge passing overhead as surface trof crosses the cwfa. Moisture pooling along/ahead of the trof will keep dewpoints elevated with heat indices to around 105 across south central SD, so a heat advisory will be issued. Area will remain under flat upper ridge through the end of the week with above average temperatures.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to expand eastward into the Ozarks region today allowing the heat to build. The hot spell will keep going through late week into the weekend with an upper ridge entrenched across the region. Afternoon heat index values will generally range from near 100 to around 105 each afternoon with the highest readings from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri.
654 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot and humid weather will persist as an upper level ridge builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Ridging will build over the region for the remainder of the day into most of Thursday bringing dry conditions.
/issued 331 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ Short term regime marked by a midlevel ridge building in from the NW and a marginally unstable environment with little forcing at work other than the typical diurnal orographic enhancement in the NE mtns, weak lee trough in the east, and a lingering stationary boundary near the southern tier. Wednesday has little change to the environment from today other than perhaps a more diffuse southern boundary and some greater warming of the midlevels per the ridge influence, so have limited pops a bit more from today with just low end chance for south central GA and slight pops farther north but kept the NW dry.
Today through Thursday Night Forecast this morning not offering up any real surprises as upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature. Widespread subsidence associated with the ridge will keep precipitation chances on the low side but a stray shower or two can never be ruled out in this type of environment.
West- southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level high over Oklahoma. Precipitable water values may increase a little today, around an inch across the lower elevations. Best chance for storms will be over the higher terrain where scattered thunderstorms are expected.
346 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A large area of high pressure stretching from the lower Rockies to the lower Mississippi River Valley will gradually slide eastward through the end of the week.
A high pressure ridge will continue the very warm and dry conditions across the region into Thursday. A weak disturbance moving through the ridge may also spark a few thunderstorms along the Hi-Line late tonight into Thursday morning.
Initially they developed along/south of the highway 30 corridor where the instability axis had little CIN. the upper ridge tries to rebuild across the southwest while an upper trough slides across the Northern Plains/far northern Upper Midwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary which currently resides along/just south of the highway 20 corridor will push back to the north into the evening hours as a warm front. Warmer temps and higher dewpoints will work into the area this afternoon.
Weak cold advection and a pressure gradient suggests to lean towards the higher end of guidance with gusts around 30mph across northwestern counties. The center of the high will move into western South Dakota tonight with a ridge axis that extends to the southeast. The rest of the forecast is dry as the high moves due east.
1121 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 A few tweaks to cloud cover have been made for the forecast this afternoon as short-range guidance is a bit too aggressive in bringing in drier air to the low/mid levels of the atmosphere. Heights will rise slightly today and there should be a good amount of sunshine with continued dry conditions, so will prog MaxT in the lower 80s, a couple ticks warmer than yesterday.
631 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 This morning: The cold front is slowly moving southeast across the area with a broken line of rain and thunderstorms approximately from Columbus, NE southwest to Hill City, KS. An abundant amount of rain fell across portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska along and ahead of the cold front with reports of 3 to 4 inches of rain in some locations. Today: The cold front is expected to slowly continue to track southeast across the remainder of the area and into eastern Kansas during the day today. Temperatures will fall as the front moves through with temps behind the front continuing to be in the low 60s throughout the day.