Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
915 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Regional 88Ds continue to show widespread showers with scattered embedded thunderstorms running out ahead of a cold front currently situated from ern OK through nern TX to the TX Hill Country. /issued 640 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ VFR conditions will continue over the next several hours before MVFR ceilings build in ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the high resolution guidance corroborates this with activity waning as it moves into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, but redeveloping again across Acadiana by mid morning into the afternoon. The front moves through late Friday ushering in slightly cooler and drier air. Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface will make for a very pleasant weekend.
The low over northern Manitoba has a trough over the upper Great Lakes and this trough remains through 00z Sat as the low moves into northern Ontario.
TFJ Upper ridging holds tonight into tomorrow, making for warm temperatures and mostly clear skies.
High pressure remains parked over the area and will continue to produce rain-free conditions tonight and on Friday. Winds will back and slightly increase by Friday afternoon as a weak cold front approaches the area from the west. High pressure over the Gulf this afternoon will weaken and shift east later tonight through Friday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Cooler than normal temperatures and periods of brisk winds can be expected through the forecast period.
As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley are in the lower to middle 80s. Models indicate shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually taper off by Friday afternoon/Friday night as a cold front and upper level low/trough moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The upper low responsible for the weather across the region the last few days continues to meander eastward, and per latest satellite imagery, is currently located over far northwestern Oklahoma. As the low continues its eastward progression, a weak trailing cold front will drop southward through the area, with overnight lows tonight a few degrees cooler than last night for some locations.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates as closed mid-upper low approach and robust updrafts in a moderately unstable environment will support large hail with these storms. Most of the showers and storms will shift east by morning as mid-upper low moves east. A warming trend is expected this weekend as mean ridging builds in.
Northwest H5 flow aided in bringing in cooler and drier air into the area this afternoon. Confidence is somewhat low that we will see precip, however with decent vorticity advection and pooling of moisture along a pseudo cold front, could see something.
PoPs were kept low however, with better lift progged for later Friday as the upper trough swings across the Great Lakes.
555 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 5ssued at 330 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Weather concerns will be relatively low over the next couple of days as high pressure builds overhead from the west.
736 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A narrow area of high pressure will hold on for one more day keeping much of the area dry into Friday.
Upper ridging will gradually shift eastward into the Upper Midwest by late in the weekend. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will be in control providing little in the way of sensible weather impacts. An upper-level ridge will be in place over the region at the beginning of this period and is forecast to slowly slide eastward throughout the upcoming week.
1146 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A weak area of low pressure will drift south of the region tonight.
But there is also some suggestion of a pseudo-split in the activity, with one separate band along the LLJ axis at 850 mb moving thru central MS into central AL while the other clusters of convection ride near the 850 mb and surface boundary across the lower OH Valley well to our north. Morning convection may limit the extent and strength of progged afternoon and evening development along the cold front.
Coincident with the higher PWAT values and northern edge of the better instability will support a heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat even after the severe risk begins to diminish during the evening. The upper low will turn to more of a southeast movement later tonight into Friday as it moves into the Ozarks/Arkansas.
Cooler than normal temperatures and periods of breezy winds can be expected through the forecast period.
continued warm air and moisture advection in advance of the low to our west will generate storms across southern Kansas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening.
622 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Generally dry north to northwest flow across TAF sites on the backside of upper low pressure continuing to depart. /issued 145 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ The upper low that has been a big part of our forecast for the last several days is moving eastward across western Oklahoma. A few showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the low are moving southeastward across the eastern Panhandle and could clip the northeastern zones this afternoon; however, we should be all clear by 00Z. Cooler air is already filtering in behind the low with low level cold advection expected to persist into Friday.
A rapid warmup will occur through Friday as high pressure aloft continues to strengthen.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 76 59 75 / 20 80 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 73 57 72 / 50 90 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 72 57 73 / 50 100 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 71 54 69 / 80 100 80 20.
A positively tilted upper trof will bring upper height falls to central Alabama during the day on Friday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Because the upper trof remains positively tilted, the colder 500mb temperatures stay west of Alabama Friday afternoon, and resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates across central Alabama.
Light southwest winds will become northerly at all airports as weak cold front pushes south.
An upper level low, evident on water vapor, is exiting out of the Panhandles and is presently centered over northwest Oklahoma. Wrap around moisture on the backside of the system, and proximity of cold core upper low, is providing just enough instability to allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in the eastern and central Panhandles. Heading into this weekend, a ridge will traverse over the region providing tranquil conditions with warming temperatures.
There may be isolated storms later this evening as the upper low comes east. Low clouds are likely to develop overnight as upper low approaches. Widespread thunderstorm development continues across eastern and northern Oklahoma early this afternoon and will continue into at least early to mid evening as the upper low in northwest Oklahoma approaches and eventually moves overhead. This area will also be beneath the track of the upper low and the coldest temperatures aloft.
Current conditions across the area feature the main threat across eastern Kentucky being a moist and unstable air mass setting up over Kentucky ahead of a slowly inching south cold front. Any training activity this evening will leave a saturated boundary layer with additional rain moving in on Friday as the low out west lifts northeast bringing through a second cold front and increased shower and thunderstorm activity.
615 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the weekend. Upper low was currently spinning east through the Oklahoma Panhandle region. A sheared vorticity channel extending to the northeast of this low was triggering isolated showers as far northeast as southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but those were fading as the afternoon progressed. Upper ridging will then build into the central CONUS later Friday and through the weekend, bringing mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures as heights rise.
Later Tonight through Friday, the upper low will track east southeast across eastern OK into AR and begin to phase with an norther stream upper trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes States. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Then a round of showers and storms in the afternoon as the cold front moves through.
944 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A narrow area of high pressure will hold on for one more day keeping much of the area dry into Friday.
640 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 VFR conditions will continue over the next several hours before MVFR ceilings build in ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the high resolution guidance corroborates this with activity waning as it moves into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, but redeveloping again across Acadiana by mid morning into the afternoon. The front moves through late Friday ushering in slightly cooler and drier air. Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface will make for a very pleasant weekend.
High pressure and a weak pressure gradient over south Florida and the Keys tonight allowed for winds to be light and variable earlier this evening but these are expected to increase a bit from the east to southeast.
Though MOS is not showing much mid-high cloudiness ahead of approaching trough aloft (which is unusual), RH fields and forecast soundings suggest a little more cloudiness than today. Western Atlantic ridge will shift east as mid level short wave rotates out of the southern Miss valley and into the southeast US coast. Feature flattens/weakens as it encounters ridge to the east.
Mid level ridging has shifted east of the forecast area this evening, downstream from a broad upper low spinning just off the Pacific Northwest coast. The upstream low is forecast to gradually move inland across the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the next couple of days, pushing the attendant cold front through northern Utah Friday evening.
North winds behind the weak wave will push across much of the area with highs in the low 60s across the northern two thirds of the area. Along and south of I94 temps are expected to be warmer with highs in the 70 to 80 degree range.
Tonight, have gone slightly cooler than blended guidance across portions of the James Valley as clear skies and light winds may again have an enhanced effect, although the main axis of high pressure will have drifted off to the east. Eastward-shifting high pressure will allow for southwest winds at the surface, of up to 20 plus mph gusts particularly across and west of the Missouri River and along the eastern Coteau, which will help to mix down warm air aloft during the afternoon. Surface temperatures may therefore reach the low 80s, a good 10-15 degrees above average generally, for afternoon highs.
MVFR flight conditions are expected to either be prevailing or become prevailing tonight behind a cold front. Brief periods of light rain or showers will be possible as an upper low spins overhead. Upper low is now over central OK and we are still expecting some wrap around showers/embedded thunder as the low moves east overnight.
716 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A weak area of low pressure will drift south of the region tonight.
1145 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the weekend. Upper low was currently spinning east through the Oklahoma Panhandle region. A sheared vorticity channel extending to the northeast of this low was triggering isolated showers as far northeast as southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but those were fading as the afternoon progressed. Upper ridging will then build into the central CONUS later Friday and through the weekend, bringing mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures as heights rise.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the region for tonight and into Friday. /issued 324 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures with highs today around 90 degrees.
646 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Cold front has now pushed to around the I-64 corridor, and heavier showers and a few thunderstorms have exited the far southeast CWA. Currently looking light tonight and Friday will largely be dry over the forecast area, although areas from Flora to Olney may be clipped toward sunrise with a few more showers, as the upper low currently over the Oklahoma panhandle tracks eastward. With a cloudier start, temperatures in the southeast will be a bit cooler, but all of the forecast area should reach the lower 70s. A ridge of high pressure aloft will slowly edge eastward through the weekend, then begin to amplify over the Mississippi Valley as a trough digs southward across the far western CONUS.
Radar mosaic of lingering showers and light rain over central and western Oklahoma would suggest the upper low is centered over Kingfisher county. Behind the boundary, cooler, drier air has spread across the rest of central and western Oklahoma. For the remainder of the evening, expect scattered showers to remain possible across central Oklahoma as the upper low slowly shifts eastward overnight, but many will remain dry. Dew points remain in the low/mid 60s from Atoka to Durant. Steepening mid-level lapse rates as closed mid-upper low approach and robust updrafts in a moderately unstable environment will support large hail with these storms. Most of the showers and storms will shift east by morning as mid-upper low moves east. A warming trend is expected this weekend as mean ridging builds in.
1028 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Latest analysis shows a high amplitude upper ridge building in from the west.
851 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A weak area of low pressure will drift south of the region tonight.
Upper low is now over central OK and we are still expecting some wrap around showers/embedded thunder as the low moves east overnight.
Mid to upper level cloud cover has spread across the region this evening as the ridge in place begins to break down. Ridging will begin to be shunted eastward and overtopped by progressing mid level low across the southern Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon have tapered off, ahead of a cold front that is just passing over the ID/OR border as of 2000 MDT. This front is associated with a large upper level low of the PACNW coast that will be impacting the area for the next few days. A cold front will bring a wind shift through SE Oregon this evening and SW Idaho late tonight.
1159 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 VFR ceilings will gradually decrease to MVFR ceilings through the night tonight with a cold front approaching from the NW. The cold front could trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
The upper level low pressure system along with a surface reflection over Oklahoma this evening will continue to move southeast through Friday. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley are in the lower to middle 80s. Models indicate shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually taper off by Friday afternoon/Friday night as a cold front and upper level low/trough moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
946 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will prevail tonight as a stationary front remains to the north.
Expect the same in our area over the next few hours as the dryline and trof push ewd. Hard to say whether the dryline will make it into our are before being caught by the cold front, but regardless, ongoing convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity. Models still show a fair amount of post-frontal rainfall as the upper low moves sewd across AR.
Patchy fog not out of the question tonight as a weak cold front approaches the region and winds become light, especially across the coastal counties where the better moisture is. Robust dew points in the lower 70s and diminishing winds will support at least light fog development overnight and near dawn, especially near the coast, so included a mention of it in the forecast. The arrival of a weak cold front is anticipated Friday during the day, with an influx of drier air behind it.
/17/ Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery showed the circulation around a closed low over western Oklahoma. The closed low will slide east through Friday becoming centered over our Delta region by Friday evening. /22/ Friday Night through Thursday: As the upper trough pushes east of the forecast area late Friday night, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will clear from west to east.
Convective intensity should begin to diminish late this evening, though occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue through the night as the upper level low swings through the area. Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.
642 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will build overhead tonight with clear skies and light winds. take hold Friday with low pressure developing on the Nrn High plains. An upper level low near the Pacific coast will slowly migrate into the Western U.
The high clouds over the area could keep the temps from falling too far. Cold front has now pushed to around the I-64 corridor, and heavier showers and a few thunderstorms have exited the far southeast CWA. Currently looking light tonight and Friday will largely be dry over the forecast area, although areas from Flora to Olney may be clipped toward sunrise with a few more showers, as the upper low currently over the Oklahoma panhandle tracks eastward. With a cloudier start, temperatures in the southeast will be a bit cooler, but all of the forecast area should reach the lower 70s. A ridge of high pressure aloft will slowly edge eastward through the weekend, then begin to amplify over the Mississippi Valley as a trough digs southward across the far western CONUS.
Ridge will hold through tonight before sliding away to the east, and any shower/thunder activity should remain well west of the area through 12Z.
Highs on Saturday should remain below avg in the lower 80s. A southern stream upper trough is similarly amplifying over the southern plains in the afternoon hours, shifting eastward during the evening. This not only cuts off moisture availability for our area, but also affects the track of the northern stream trough coming off the high plains overnight. Latest guidance turns the trough axis easterly, shunting much of the qpf into Nebraska.
A few of the high res models (Specifically the HRRR) are showing a chance of showers and storms moving across the area and its terminals n Saturday afternoon. /issued 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/ (Today and Saturday) An upper level high centered over central Texas will lead to another warm and mainly dry night across our area. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with lows in the lower to mid 70s. On Saturday, the upper high will remain centered across the southern half of the CWA. (Saturday night through Friday) A cold front is forecast to stall across North Texas Saturday night, with shower and thunderstorms development across much of North Texas/Oklahoma.
With the main forcing moving through the highway 14 corridor and across Nebraska, will leave out pops for far southeast SD and northwest Iowa through Saturday afternoon. Best chances to see measurable rainfall will be south central SD through the highway 14 corridor, and even here it should not be a total wash-out.
At forecast issuance time a cold front extended from low pressure over Lake Huron southwestward across southern Illinois to north of Dallas. Nevertheless, widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop as the cold front slips southward into area of higher moisture supply and a 5H speed max rounds the base of an upper trof from southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Freezing levels are high, mid-level lapse rates are weak, and DCAPE is weak, so most of the thunderstorms that develop should be garden variety. The cold front will gradually move south of the area Saturday but the corresponding 5H trof will lag behind, and could spark a few showers and a thunderstorm or two in southeastern sections of central Kentucky. Saturday night looks dry and pleasant as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
A cold front will sweep through central Indiana late this afternoon and early evening. As the front moves into Ohio, high pressure will build in from the west and put an end to the thunderstorms.
Continued light upslope winds should also aid in low level ascent for at least spotty storms despite prevalent upper ridging. As the aforementioned impulse exits NM on Saturday, the upper ridge will completely erode as 20-40 meters worth of mid-level height falls unfold.
High pressure builds into the region tonight with clear conditions expected.
A trough remains over the Southeast with a weak pressure gradient at the surface.
and ahead of a weak cold front seen across southern Missouri and Illinois.
Northwest winds will gradually weaken into the overnight hours, as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Winds will continue to weaken into Saturday, as the high moves into the area. Widely scattered light rain showers should diminish by early evening as the 850 mb trough axis shifts to our east. Clouds should clear from west to east early tonight, as high pressure builds into the upper Mississippi valley. Light northerly winds will turn northeasterly along the Lake during the afternoon, resulting in slightly cooler high temperatures in the east.
Widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures this afternoon produced a more stable air mass across central Alabama, limiting areal coverage and intensity of convection.
High pressure will slide across the upper Mississippi valley and filter in cooler and drier air into the region through Saturday afternoon. Kelly The large scale pattern aloft late Saturday will feature a broad mean trof centerd through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with broad cyclonic flow from the northern Rockies eastward through the Mid MS Valley.
Upper Low over Saskatchewan is tracking SE into NE Montana by evening. There is a nice little cold front associated with this feature being pushed south/southeastward toward our CWA. Otherwise, convection will generally be limited to the higher elevations this weekend.
As the main area of low pressure just off to our southeast continues to slowly exit the region, these stubborn clouds will eventually begin to dissipate from west to east across Upper Michigan this evening into the morning hours tomorrow.
1157 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 A stray shower remains possible during the night as northwest flow deepens around the west flank of the eastern Great Lakes low pressure system. The low level wind pattern will instead be more favorable for bringing stratus down from the northern Great Lakes or lead to development overhead as the night progresses. Cold front extends from about Bad Axe southwest to Benton Harbor. Freezing levels only 12k ft with strongest updrafts supporting up to 35k ft tops so far. Broad 500mb trough will linger over the Great Lakes Saturday aiding in a fair amount of cu development.
A low pressure center is making its way through the Great Lakes this afternoon, and the associated cold front has slipped south of Interstate 70 and out of ILXs forecast area. Overnight will be cooler as clear skies and light winds in general set up for some radiational cooling more so than a major difference in airmasses behind the front.
620 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 142 PM CDT Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper trough advancing eastward across the Great Lakes this afternoon. This is ushering cooler mid level air into the area as the low level flow turns more northerly. High pressure over the northern plains will move southeast into Saturday before moving overhead later Saturday.