Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT IS ANCHORED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT A DIFFUSE SMOKE PLUME SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS WHILE THE H5 RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS.
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THIS WAVE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARD THE I 90 CORRIDOR BY 12Z MONDAY BRINGING A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WITH IT. HOWEVER THE RAIN CHANCES WILL FILL IN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE A BIT IN FRONT OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE AREA IN MN AND THEN STARTS TO BE PUSHED NORTH NORTHEAST.
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
822 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY MILD /WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/ AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BRINGS LIGHTER WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UP NORTH. HIGHER PWAT AIR GLIDING UP AND OVER THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A BKN-OVC LAYER OF ALTOCU OVER THE SCENT AND SW ZONES MONDAY. AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INTERIM.
1023 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. BEFORE A RETURN OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN WITH A VARIETY OF TIMING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODELS AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE MID OHIO VALLEY. COMPROMISED BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS WITH WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN STALLING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS WASHINGTON. MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW IS VERY LIMITED AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM IT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ON MONDAY TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT DURING MONDAY.
919 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ALTHOUGH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE FRONT BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE WARM FRONT. AND AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC. IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SENDS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE FROM THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FURTHER THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS AFFECTING AREAS OF EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE.
1217 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN FOR MONDAY.
914 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A QUIET WEATHER WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT PLAGUED THE AREA WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN WITH A GENERAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WONT BECOME TOO AMPLIFIED AND JUST EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
851 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY MILD /WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/ AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BRINGS LIGHTER WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UP NORTH. HIGHER PWAT AIR GLIDING UP AND OVER THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A BKN-OVC LAYER OF ALTOCU OVER THE SCENT AND SW ZONES MONDAY. AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INTERIM.
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A NORTHERN CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. INCREASING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT. AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW WASHES OUT OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND IS EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
736 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEPARTING FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE NORTH. A WEAK WAVE SPINNING AROUND CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH COULD BRING A ROUND OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR OUT MON EVENING WITH LOWS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN SUN NIGHT AS WILL SEE DECOUPLING.
THE HIGH OF 88 IN HUNTSVILLE APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WAS BRINGING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CORRESPONDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A WARMER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY SMALLER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGHER/LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. 09 /ISSUED 213 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ A NICE MOTHER'S DAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD, PROBABLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 83 62 83 / 0 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 82 60 81 / 0 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 82 60 81 / 0 10 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 81 56 79 / 10 10 20 30.
1115 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY MILD /WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/ AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BRINGS LIGHTER WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UP NORTH. HIGHER PWAT AIR GLIDING UP AND OVER THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A BKN-OVC LAYER OF ALTOCU OVER THE SCENT AND SW ZONES MONDAY. AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INTERIM.
ALSO, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER GLACIER NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z, BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW/LOW ELEVATION RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW).
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OF THE WEEK DRY AND WARM. AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. REMAINING LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PUSHES SLOWLY NORTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WITH AN UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. THEN MORPHS INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS WILL SEE ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT NORTH WITHIN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S SOUTH FOR HIGHS MONDAY THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS. WARMER NORTH IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED ONE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE WI. THIS WOULD BRING MIN TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH. TO THE LOWER 60S EAST-CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS YIELDS READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 20S. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL GET SQUEEZED BY A TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE ROCKIES/EASTERN PLAINS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF TO OUR EAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S (A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON DUE TO THE ON-SHORE FLOW). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 20S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA BY LATER MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. SOME STRATUS IS STILL BANKED NORTH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE AT LEAST UNTIL MORNING. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEPARTING FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE NORTH. A WEAK WAVE SPINNING AROUND CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH COULD BRING A ROUND OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR OUT MON EVENING WITH LOWS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN SUN NIGHT AS WILL SEE DECOUPLING.
1022 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LAST HOUR AND MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MARINE AREAS GENERALLY FROM THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAYS TO ABOUT 40NM OFFSHORE WILL PROBABLY OBSERVE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS. WE COULD SEE SOME WATER UP TO THE HIGHWAY 87/124 INTERSECTION ON BOLIVAR PENINSULA A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER HIGH TIDE WHICH OCCURS AROUND 8 AM MONDAY MORNING.
1113 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL PASS EAST EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH SHARP DRYING ONCE AGAIN. RMCQUEEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MAJORITY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1255 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN MTNS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
Upper low remains over the intermountain west at this time while a quasi-stationary surface front is situated from a low over north central Kansas across central Missouri into western Kentucky. The main event will take place on Monday as the low over the Rockies begins to eject under the influence of another upper level wave moving into the Pacific Northwest. As the low ejects.
1215 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE MONDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD TOWARD THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS UPPER LOW HOLDS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY. EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE LAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AWHILE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THEN WARMER NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WITH BROAD RIDGING ARCING FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
551 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. MONDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH.
STILL APPEARS THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER UPPER WAVE.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON MONDAY FROM THE SW TO THE NE AND SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY EARLY MONDAY.
FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MEDFORD CWA.
1131 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. COMPROMISED BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS WITH WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN STALLING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY.
754 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016 With the upper low well to the east now and the loss of daytime heating. Drier and warmer weather returns for the upcoming week. The upper low which has brought 5 days of wet and stormy weather to the region is finally shifting eastward, with the core of the low now just north of the Four Corners region. Lingering moisture and instability on the western side of this low will bring one final afternoon of scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As the low continues to pull eastward tonight and drier northwesterly flow helps to scour out moisture, skies will begin to clear with no additional precipitation.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
/ISSUED 213 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ A NICE MOTHER'S DAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD, PROBABLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
1126 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THIS WAVE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARD THE I 90 CORRIDOR BY 12Z MONDAY BRINGING A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WITH IT. HOWEVER THE RAIN CHANCES WILL FILL IN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE A BIT IN FRONT OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE AREA IN MN AND THEN STARTS TO BE PUSHED NORTH NORTHEAST.
Stronger wave was beginning to exit the base of the upper trough across the Rockies and was moving into western Kansas. Also additional storms are likely to develop in the vicinity and north of the warm front near the Nebraska border. Monday the dryline mixes to the east into central Kansas in the afternoon while the upper trough ejects to the northeast across the Central Plains and takes a negative tilt as it does so.
MAJORITY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES HAS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING. AS WYOMING UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
1200 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH FROST EXPECTED UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Weak upper level ridging will be in place tonight then gradually break down and shift eastward as a trough digs across the Plains and energy rounds the base of the trough and moves towards the region. Monday night will bring a better chance for showers and storms as the main trough approaches the area from the west.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. MONDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW EVENING MODEL RUNS SHOWS MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME CLEARING OUT OF THE STATE. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW AROUND. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S READINGS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
922 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY THOUGH AND WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
816 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. BEFORE A RETURN OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN WITH A VARIETY OF TIMING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODELS AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE MID OHIO VALLEY. COMPROMISED BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS WITH WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN STALLING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY.
753 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ALTHOUGH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE FRONT BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE WARM FRONT. AND AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC. IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
959 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE AXIS OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MILLIBARS ON MON. A LITTLE CIRRUS SHOULD ALSO SPILL OVER RIDGE ALOFT. GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE ON MON.
801 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH FROST EXPECTED UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.