Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Kept the trend going with temperature increases by bumping up temps a degree or two from initialized NBM with the passage of a warm front to the east. Directly behind the front on Friday morning, we expect sprinkles to end, but perhaps some sprinkles Friday afternoon with cold air advection ensuing behind a cold front along with steep low- level lapse rates. Strong wind gusts are expected directly behind a cold front late tonight and into Friday morning. The HRRR indicates gusts could reach 40 mph or so directly behind a cold front passage.
Temperatures are likely to peak near noon and then begin to drop as the strong winds advect in cooler temperatures. The highest chances are located along the NE/SD border.
A cold front currently moving through the area will shift winds briefly from the north, before veering around from the southeast to southwest around 00Z.
High pressure remains to our south. As it builds today, winds will shift to more of westerly flow around the northern edge of the high. Lows tonight will drop int the low 30s northeast to 30s and low 40s elsewhere.
715 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 A weak cold front was moving southward out of the Texas Panhandle and across the airports this morning. This was generating patches of mid and high clouds that will thin later this morning, and also a minor surface cold front with about 2-3 millibar pressure rises per three hours moving through the northern Texas Panhandle. This weak cold front will pass through most of the area by mid morning with north to northeast breezes up to 15 mph, and then winds diminishing during the afternoon.
A low-amplitude trough in the flow of the Hudson Bay upper low will push into the northern Plains tonight. The associated cold front will sweep south, east of the Continental Divide tonight. Areas of snow are expected to develop along and in the wake of this cold front tonight.
A cold front currently extends from the Thumb southwest to near Chicago. Light snow along/ahead of the front has diminished somewhat behind the front, but likely won't end until after the upper trough passes through mid morning. This afternoon will be dry as weak ridging builds in ahead of the next system. Temperatures will warm to close to 40 Friday in the southwest flow, but that will quickly change as the next cold front blows through Friday evening.
Strong high pressure will remain parked off the Pacific coast through the weekend, keeping a dry and generally stable northerly flow over Utah and southwest Wyoming.
This was generating patches of mid and high clouds that will thin later this morning, and also a minor surface cold front with about 2-3 millibar pressure rises per three hours moving through the northern Texas Panhandle. This weak cold front will pass through most of the area by mid morning with north to northeast breezes up to 15 mph, and then winds diminishing during the afternoon.
539 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 A weak cold front was moving southward out of the Texas Panhandle and across the airports this morning. This was generating patches of mid and high clouds that will thin later this morning, and also a minor surface cold front with about 2-3 millibar pressure rises per three hours moving through the northern Texas Panhandle. This weak cold front will pass through most of the area by mid morning with north to northeast breezes up to 15 mph, and then winds diminishing during the afternoon.
Precipitation will accompany the front, with the potential for light rain changing to freezing rain before the transition to snow with the arrival of the colder air aloft. Moisture and dynamics with this weather system will favor occasional moderate snow accumulations, mainly over the higher terrain of southeast WY. Three to five inches appears likely for the higher, north facing peaks of the Laramie and Snowy Ranges, one to two inches for the Sierra Madre Range and I-80 Summit, and less than an inch elsewhere.
406 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 Currently - Gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes, in wake of the recent cold front passage, is being supported by a high cell centered along the central Gulf coast.
Potential for light snow or a wintry mix on leading edge depends on timing of enough low level saturation for that precip to reach the ground, but with surface and low-level temperatures warming above freezing through the day, bulk of precipitation today should be just rain before it tapers off this evening. Still anticipate a mild night with breezy westerly winds ahead of the stronger cold front, with temperatures still in the upper 20s and 30s by daybreak Friday. This will likely be the high for the day, however, as that stronger cold front plows southward through the day.
452 AM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Overview: The High Plains will be situated on/near an 'inflection point' in the synoptic pattern -- in NW-NNW flow aloft -- between a pronounced upper level ridge along the Pacific coast and a deep/broad upper level trough over the central/eastern CONUS. as the MSLP/H85 height gradient re-orient/tighten in response to an intensifying low pressure system progressing southeastward from Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest (northern Minnesota). manifesting as a northerly wind shift / effective cold frontal passage. Expect highs a good 10-15F cooler than today. with highs ranging from the lower to upper 40s.
There is some slightly cooler air behind the wave but it isn't cold enough to really make a difference in our daytime temperatures. Expect highs today to rise into the 50s through much of the forecast area, with 60s to upper 70s across the lower valley areas. Gusts up to 35 mph remain possible early before dropping off through this afternoon and becoming light tonight with the pressure gradient really relaxing as the high over the Pacific continues to move eastward towards the California coast.
A weak cold front will move across the area during the day tomorrow, but will mainly be a wind shift more than anything else.
431 AM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Persistent northwest flow is expected continue in the near term as high pressure remains anchored over the West Coast while a deep trough lingers over the center of the nation. It seems the overturning will allow milder air aloft to mix down offsetting the influx of cooler air at the surface. Meanwhile, the overnight low tonight will trend just a bit warmer for much of the area. High pressure continues along the West Coast pushing the storm track to the east along the Front Range. The western Colorado and eastern Utah counties will see warm temperatures through the weekend with the ridge over the Western US. This deep trough pulls the Hudson Bay low east and north as it rotates through resulting in the ridge decaying under the shifting longwave pattern.
(Today and tonight) Generally quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected for the area today. An upper level trough will move southeast through the southern plains, dragging a weak cold front with it. Otherwise, we may see a few mid and upper level clouds associated with the trough as it moves through. Lows tonight should be a few degrees warmer, mostly in the mid and upper 30s with a few readings in the lower 40s.
A Friday cold front will return widespread precipitation to the region as well as more seasonable temperature for the start of the new week.
There remains a strong but transient 700 mb warm advection signal later this afternoon/evening ahead of the surface warm front which will pass through during the evening. Guidance is in good agreement for the highest accumulating potential generally near/north of I-94 with WPC ensemble data supporting a solid 2 to 3+ inches at Medford based on the 10th-90th percentile ranges. There's a short window for freezing drizzle/mixed precip ahead of the warming or before road temps respond, but this risk looks rather short-lived given the quick warm-up expected for much of the region. The cold front will swing through by early Friday with NW winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts to around 40 mph.
A high pressure system will dominate the Northeast Pacific into the weekend. As the high moves north, the gusty northerly winds over the coastal waters will weaken, and general offshore flow will also weaken. A system of high pressure continues its journey north and slightly east.
As mentioned earlier, clear skies on Friday will help afternoon temperatures climb to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the lower to mid 70s across the region.
328 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Tranquil weather once again across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure at the surface firmly in control. Expect another mild day as our winds pivot to a west to WSW direction ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. However, this will have little impact on insolation/heating as highs will once again warm into the lower 60s across the valley (only a degree or two lower than yesterday). The aforementioned trough will swing through the region overnight, but this moisture starved system will bring little more than patchy mid to high-level clouds. The combination of breezy southerly winds and ample sunshine underneath the ridge will allow for an even warmer day as high temperatures surge into the mid to upper 60s.
400 AM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Persistent northwest flow is expected continue in the near term as high pressure remains anchored over the West Coast while a deep trough lingers over the center of the nation. It seems the overturning will allow milder air aloft to mix down offsetting the influx of cooler air at the surface. Meanwhile, the overnight low tonight will trend just a bit warmer for much of the area. High pressure continues along the West Coast pushing the storm track to the east along the Front Range. The western Colorado and eastern Utah counties will see warm temperatures through the weekend with the ridge over the Western US. This deep trough pulls the Hudson Bay low east and north as it rotates through resulting in the ridge decaying under the shifting longwave pattern.
This warmth will unfortunately be short-lived as a large trough descends upon us from the north.
412 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 The region will be under near zonal flow aloft at the base of a larger upper trough. Sprawling high pressure at the surface will cover the region. However, given the dry soils across many locations as well as the low RH values, will continue to advertise the inherited elevated fire danger risk for the area. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side with readings in the 40s areawide.
/Issued 355 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022/ Dry short term period expected as Georgia remains positioned at the base of the longwave trough.
425 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 A weak cold front will swing through the region early today which will offer widely scattered rain and snow showers, mainly north of Interstate 70.
515 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 (Today and tonight) Generally quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected for the area today. An upper level trough will move southeast through the southern plains, dragging a weak cold front with it. Otherwise, we may see a few mid and upper level clouds associated with the trough as it moves through. Lows tonight should be a few degrees warmer, mostly in the mid and upper 30s with a few readings in the lower 40s.
/28/ The region will be under near zonal flow aloft at the base of a larger upper trough. Sprawling high pressure at the surface will cover the region. However, given the dry soils across many locations as well as the low RH values, will continue to advertise the inherited elevated fire danger risk for the area. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side with readings in the 40s areawide.
High pressure continues to dominate the western US, and provide dry conditions, light winds and above normal temperatures to the area. Today through Friday night High pressure off the OR/CA coast will begin to sag south, off the coast of northern CA, and eventually central CA by Friday. Nevada will remain under the ridge, leading to dry conditions, light winds, and temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will range generally in the 50s across the state, with 60s across the lower valleys of Humboldt and Nye counties. Lows generally in the 20s, with some warmer temperatures across areas of Humboldt and Nye counties. Friday night temperatures will be a bit cooler, dipping into the teens and 20s.
433 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 Currently - Gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes, in wake of the recent cold front passage, is being supported by a high cell centered along the central Gulf coast.
649 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 A weak cold front will swing through the region early today which will offer widely scattered rain and snow showers, mainly north of Interstate 70.
Tranquil weather once again across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure at the surface firmly in control. Expect another mild day as our winds pivot to a west to WSW direction ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. However, this will have little impact on insolation/heating as highs will once again warm into the lower 60s across the valley (only a degree or two lower than yesterday). The aforementioned trough will swing through the region overnight, but this moisture starved system will bring little more than patchy mid to high-level clouds. The combination of breezy southerly winds and ample sunshine underneath the ridge will allow for an even warmer day as high temperatures surge into the mid to upper 60s.
Very dry conditions today as the weak high pressure ridge axis remains just north of east central Florida. Coastal Volusia will be a little cooler, in the mid 60s, due to onshore flow and chilly surf temperatures. High pressure ridge extending from the northern Gulf coast east- northeast across north Florida and offshore the Carolinas, combined with a stationary frontal zone east of the local Atlantic waters, will produce north to northeast winds 10-14 knots.
Water vapor channel imagery reveals a rather complex synoptic flow pattern with blocking in the west and deep low in the Arctic latitudes. Equatorward of this low are numerous fast-moving perturbations within the cyclic flow. Temperatures yesterday were considerably warmer than blended guidance possibly at least partially due to overzealous influence from model snow cover, which is waning across the area per latest observations and satellite imagery. Warm advection strengthens significantly through the morning pushing thermal profiles into warmer territory, and solidly rain for precipitation type throughout the day. Cold advection behind the departing wave will result in temperatures failing to rise above freezing this weekend.
525 AM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Clipper system tracking across central Canada this morning, with cold front expected to back door into Montana later today. Temperatures will be warming toward 60 degrees ahead of the cold front, and combined with the strong winds could produce elevated fire weather concerns. Bands of precipitation will continue to develop over eastern Montana tonight into Friday as high pressure drops into the northern plains. Weekend looks warm and dry thanks again to that SW ridge of high pressure.
On Friday an H5 trough will begin to dig south from Canada into the Plains/Great Lakes.
213 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Tonight through Friday Temperatures tonight will be notably warmer with winds increasing and becoming southwesterly. Lows tonight fall into the lower 40s F, about 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Dry air and high pressure will be in control and temperatures will warm quickly into the lower 70s F for most. While southerly winds may help keep our dewpoints into the 30s F as opposed to the 20s F seen in previous days, the additional wind and warmer temperatures will serve to continue hazardous fire weather conditions.
A low-amplitude trough in the flow of the Hudson Bay upper low will push into the Northern Plains tonight. The associated cold front will sweep south, east of the Continental Divide tonight. Areas of snow are expected to develop along and in the wake of this cold front tonight.
A strong cold front is expected to push through mid state region Friday night.
Model soundings suggest we will be pretty deeply mixed this afternoon, ranging from 5-6k ft mixing height depths on the low end to over 7k ft on the high end. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 36 65 42 55 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 34 63 42 50 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 57 34 62 42 50 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 29 60 39 50 / 0 0 0 20 30.
Think it's worth noting, however, that temperatures will only continue to fall tomorrow as strong cold front pushes across the region.
High pressure remains the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, so look for VFR wx to continue through the TAF period.
A westerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft continues across the region this afternoon along the base of a trough that extends across much of the eastern CONUS. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the upper 30s to lower 40s over most places, except a little warmer in the mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast and beaches.
Temperatures are warming rapidly this morning as dry, high pressure remains in control. Observations around daybreak were at or just below freezing with temperatures expected to jump to the upper 60s F and lower 70s F. /86/ Prior discussion below: The region will be under near zonal flow aloft at the base of a larger upper trough. Sprawling high pressure at the surface will cover the region. However, given the dry soils across many locations as well as the low RH values, will continue to advertise the inherited elevated fire danger risk for the area. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side with readings in the 40s areawide.
Afternoon highs should top out in the low 60s with light winds so it will feel a bit warmer than yesterday. The aforementioned trough will swing through the region overnight, but this moisture starved system will bring little more than patchy mid to high-level clouds. The combination of breezy southerly winds and ample sunshine underneath the ridge will allow for an even warmer day as high temperatures surge into the mid to upper 60s.
High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions with a warming trend the remainder of the week.
(Friday through Thursday) The next cold front continues to trend a bit faster for Friday. Still looking at highs around 70 across the southern half of the region as a prominent thermal ridge develops ahead of the front.
Continued westerly to southwesterly flow rounding the Gulf ridge will help keep temperatures above average, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the 30s.
227 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 The area remains between a robust low pressure system over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the southeast United States, which will result in above normal temperatures on Friday.
Expect these conditions to continue under influence of high pressure through the short term and into the weekend.
/86/ Temperatures are warming rapidly this morning as dry, high pressure remains in control. Observations around daybreak were at or just below freezing with temperatures expected to jump to the upper 60s F and lower 70s F. /86/ Prior discussion below: The region will be under near zonal flow aloft at the base of a larger upper trough. Sprawling high pressure at the surface will cover the region. However, given the dry soils across many locations as well as the low RH values, will continue to advertise the inherited elevated fire danger risk for the area. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side with readings in the 40s areawide.
315 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 A high pressure system will provide dry weather through Friday morning.
1251 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 A weak cold front will swing through the region early today which will offer widely scattered rain and snow showers, mainly north of Interstate 70.
This evening a mid level trough swings through the area, but with the lack of moisture present not expecting any rain. Late Friday, an upper level trough digs down into the Central U. with a cold front along the leading edge.
320 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 The forecast will trend mostly dry through Thursday night before the next low pressure system arrives on Friday. Periods of rain are expected on Friday, with light snow possible Friday night behind a cold front.
This trend should not have a marked effect on afternoon highs, as the dry layer just above the surface looks to mix down to ground level by 18 or 19Z, allowing temperatures to stabilize through the afternoon, peaking at forecast highs in the lower 70s areawide.
125 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Winds will decrease this evening ahead of a backdoor cold front that will slide into the region this evening, switching winds to the northwest, and bringing rain and snow showers. General consensus is from 1-3 inches of snow, with the highest over the higher hills. Friday will be significantly cooler than past several days.
Overnight lows still look to stay above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. This will help to usher in some warmer air. With the 850 mb thermal ridge overhead and compressional heating in the 850 mb layer ahead of a cold front, high temperatures tomorrow are expected to reach into the mid to upper 70s. An upper level trough will begin to move south over the southern plains and into the Red River Valley later in the day Friday sending a cold front south into the Big Country by late afternoon.
Expect highs in the 40s Friday, but a cold front will usher in colder temperatures Friday night through the weekend with overnight lows in the teens and single digits, while daytime highs will generally be in the 20s. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to dig across northern MN this evening then move east across Lake Superior Friday with a trailing cold front pushing into central Illinois Friday afternoon. By Friday afternoon, the first wave of WAA should shift east into Indiana, but a secondary upper trough digging across MO/IL Friday afternoon will support additional precip development along and north of the H85 baroclinic zone where a corridor of strong FGen will pivot across portions of the southern half of the state, favoring areas along and south of I-70.
139 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 At the upper levels, active northwest flow is expected through most of the forecast period, with multiple waves expected to ride down the western CONUS ridge. With passage of the cold front, temps are expected to remain steady or even drop as we progress through Friday.
Winds remain on track to decrease in intensity after 12 pm MST this afternoon across the region as high pressure strengthens.
A continued ridge of high pressure will allow for widespread above normal temperatures today. We are expecting a return to normal temperatures for the weekend as a trough passes to our east, bringing slightly colder air into the southwest Idaho. Patchy fog and low clouds are still expected in the lower Treasure Valley overnight as the temperature inversion continues to build in the valleys.
A cold front approaches from Canada this evening and crosses the state from north to south overnight. Along and behind the cold front, expect light precipitation to develop, possibly as a mix of rain and snow at first, transitioning to all snow by Friday morning. Friday's highs will be much cooler with lows ranging from around zero across the Turtle Mountains, to the upper 20s southwest.
1232 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 A high pressure system will provide dry weather through Friday morning.
1204 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 High pressure continues to hold an influence on the area into Sat, which means a dry forecast and a continued warming trend. By late Sat, high pressure breaks down followed by a cold frontal passage Sun and low pressure offshore pulling away from the region.
Model soundings suggest we will be pretty deeply mixed this afternoon, ranging from 5-6k ft mixing height depths on the low end to over 7k ft on the high end. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 65 42 55 27 / 0 0 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 63 42 50 28 / 0 0 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 34 62 42 50 27 / 0 0 10 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 60 39 50 27 / 0 0 20 30 40.